Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/21/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
939 PM MDT SAT JUN 20 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 PM MDT SAT JUN 20 2015
MAINLY DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO. APPEARS STORMS OVER
NEBRASKA WILL STAY NORTH AND EAST OF COLORADO SO WILL REMOVE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS FROM THE FAR NE PLAINS. NO OTHER CHANGES
TO CURRENT FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM MDT SAT JUN 20 2015
EXCEPT FOR SOME CLOUDS OVR THE HYR TRRN THIS AFTERNOON...SKIES
HAVE BEEN MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH TEMPS AROUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE. A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACRS WY TODAY AND THIS EVENING IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHEAST
CORNER OF THE STATE. THE HRRR SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE NE CORNER BY 00Z...THEN MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA BY ABOUT 03Z. THE NAM AND HRRR KEEP
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THE GFS STILL SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTION
ALONG THE MTNS THIS EVENING...AND KEEPS SOME PCPN GOING OVR THE
FAR NE CORNER OF THE STATE A BIT LATER THAN OTHER MODELS. WL LEAN
MORE TOWARD THE GFS TO ALSO MATCH WITH SURROUNDING FORECAST
AREAS...AND KEEP THE CONVECTION GOING UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT.
WITH A WARM UPR RIDGE SITTING OVR THE AREA ON SUN...CHANCES FOR
PCPN LOOK QUITE LIMITED AND WL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. HIGHS ON SUN
WL BE QUITE WARM...WITH 90S OVER THE NERN PLAINS WHICH IS ABOUT 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM MDT SAT JUN 20 2015
DRY WX WL CONTINUE SUN NIGHT AND MON AS THE UPR RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BE THE MAIN FEATURE OVR THE AREA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST
TO MOVE THRU THE ERN AREAS MON MORNING...BRINGING NORTHERLY
WINDS...PROBABLY GUSTY OVR THE FAR ERN AREAS. THE SFC WINDS THEN
BECOME EASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT
OF THE WX AS TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 90S OVR ERN
AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON. BY MON NIGHT...THE UPR RIDGE BECOMES
BROAD...STRETCHING FROM NM TO THE SERN STATES. MON NIGHT...WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NORTHEAST CO...LOW LEVEL MSTR IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING. THE MODELS ARE
SLOW TO CLEAR THE LOW CLOUDS OUT OF THE FAR NERN PLAINS ON TUE.
TEMPS ACRS NERN CO ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE COOLER TUE THAN
THEY WL BE ON MON. THE HYR ELEVATIONS WL ALSO SEE JUST A SLIGHT
COOL DOWN. TUE THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LIGHT PCPN OVR THE FAR
NERN AREAS...AND THEN IN THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS WL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVR AND NR THE MTNS AND ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR.
TUE NIGHT AND WED THE UPR RIDGE WL BE FLATTENED OVR THE AREA AS A
DISTURBANCE MOVES THRU WY AND INTO THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES. IT LOOKS LIKE LOW STRATUS WL RETURN TO THE PLAINS TUE
NIGHT/WED MORNING...THEN DISSIPATING BY NOON. THE FORECAST MODELS
ARE SHOWING AN INCREASE IN SUB TROPICAL MSTR OVR THE AREA FOR WED
AND THU...LEADING TO A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AN UPR RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BE OVR THE GREAT BASIN BY
FRI...BUT A DISTURBANCE MOVING OVR MAINLY ERN PORTION OF THE
AREA...IN THE NW FLOW ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE...IS FORECAST
TO BRING PCPN TO THE FRONT RANGE AND THE PLAINS. SAT THE UPR RIDGE
REMAINS OVR THE GREAT BASIN AND MOIST EASTERLY FLOW OVR ERN CO IS
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO PCPN OVR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 934 PM MDT SAT JUN 20 2015
VFR WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING
SOUTHEAST AND IN PROCESS OF MOVING TO DRAINAGE WINDS FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BY MIDNIGHT.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ENTREKIN
SHORT TERM...WFO PUB 28
LONG TERM...WFO PUB 28
AVIATION...ENTREKIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
853 PM MDT SAT JUN 20 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 842 PM MDT SAT JUN 20 2015
UPDATED TO END SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. RADAR AND SATELLITE INDICATE A COUPLE OF
SHOWERS STILL OVER THE SAN JUAN RANGE...BUT HAVE QUICKLY BEEN
DISSIPATING AND SHOULD COME TO AN END BY 10 PM. NO OTHER UPDATES
AT THIS TIME. MOZLEY
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT SAT JUN 20 2015
WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH PUSHED THROUGH THE PLAINS EARLIER TODAY HAS
BROUGHT E-NE WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS TO THE PLAINS/ERN
MOUNTAINS...WHILE TEMPS FARTHER WEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR
VALLEYS REMAIN LITTLE CHANGED. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY LOOK
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ISOLATED TSRA OVER THE ERN MOUNTAINS...THOUGH
LACK OF ANY TRIGGER AND FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL CIN HAS SO FAR KEPT
THINGS IN CHECK. LAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE NAM STILL HAVE SOME WEAK
TSRA DEVELOPING...WHILE HRRR AND OTHER MESOSCALE MODELS ARE MAINLY
DRY. WILL KEEP JUST SOME VERY LOW POPS FOR A FEW OF THE HIGHER PEAKS
INTO EARLY EVENING...THOUGH WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE
AREA REMAIN CONVECTION FREE AT THIS POINT. ANY CLOUDS WILL CLEAR
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN SAT MORNING MOST LOCATIONS. ON SUNDAY...HEIGHTS BUILD
SLIGHTLY AND WITH PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE PLAINS PRODUCING A
RETURN TO S-SW WINDS...EXPECT ALL AREAS TO BECOME VERY HOT ONCE
AGAIN...WITH READINGS NEAR/OVER 100F ACROSS THE LOWER ARK VALLEY.
AIR MASS LOOKS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY CONVECTION...SO WILL KEEP A
DRY FORECAST GOING ALL AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT SAT JUN 20 2015
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY
AND HOT WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA. THERE WILL ONLY BE A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HIGH BASED CONVECTION OVER
THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM
90 TO 100 ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS...70S AND
80S HIGH VALLEYS...AND 60S AND 70S MOUNTAINS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGE PUSHES EAST SOME...ALLOWING A
FETCH OF MODEST MOISTURE TO ENTER THE AREA. IN ADDITION...A
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS...SO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WILL BE EVIDENT
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MODELS DIVERGENT ON HOW
MUCH CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST TUESDAY EVENING. GFS HAS
THE MOST...WITH EUROPEAN BARELY ANY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW SEVERE STORMS BOTH DAYS WITH INSTABILITY VALUES INCREASING.
WITH SOME CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN
OVER THE WEEKEND.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE FORECAST TO BUILD TO OUR
WEST DURING THE PERIOD. GFS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE RIDING DOWN THE
NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE IN THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY TIME
FRAME...MORE SO THAN THE EUROPEAN. THERE WILL LIKELY BE DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THE FRONT
SIDE OF THE RIDGE....MORE CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES...IN THE
80S AND 90S PLAINS...70S AND 80S HIGH VALLEYS AND 50S TO 70S
MOUNTAINS. -TLM-
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY) ISSUED AT 256 PM
MDT SAT JUN 20 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL TAF
SITES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY WEST OF KCOS...BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE IN ANY TAF. EVEN LESS CHANCE
OF CONVECTION ON SUN.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...PETERSEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...RESENT
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
303 PM MDT SAT JUN 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM MDT SAT JUN 20 2015
EXCEPT FOR SOME CLOUDS OVR THE HYR TRRN THIS AFTERNOON...SKIES
HAVE BEEN MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH TEMPS AROUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE. A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACRS WY TODAY AND THIS EVENING IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHEAST
CORNER OF THE STATE. THE HRRR SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE NE CORNER BY 00Z...THEN MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA BY ABOUT 03Z. THE NAM AND HRRR KEEP
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THE GFS STILL SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTION
ALONG THE MTNS THIS EVENING...AND KEEPS SOME PCPN GOING OVR THE
FAR NE CORNER OF THE STATE A BIT LATER THAN OTHER MODELS. WL LEAN
MORE TOWARD THE GFS TO ALSO MATCH WITH SURROUNDING FORECAST
AREAS...AND KEEP THE CONVECTION GOING UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT.
WITH A WARM UPR RIDGE SITTING OVR THE AREA ON SUN...CHANCES FOR
PCPN LOOK QUITE LIMITED AND WL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. HIGHS ON SUN
WL BE QUITE WARM...WITH 90S OVER THE NERN PLAINS WHICH IS ABOUT 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM MDT SAT JUN 20 2015
DRY WX WL CONTINUE SUN NIGHT AND MON AS THE UPR RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BE THE MAIN FEATURE OVR THE AREA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST
TO MOVE THRU THE ERN AREAS MON MORNING...BRINGING NORTHERLY
WINDS...PROBABLY GUSTY OVR THE FAR ERN AREAS. THE SFC WINDS THEN
BECOME EASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT
OF THE WX AS TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 90S OVR ERN
AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON. BY MON NIGHT...THE UPR RIDGE BECOMES
BROAD...STRETCHING FROM NM TO THE SERN STATES. MON NIGHT...WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NORTHEAST CO...LOW LEVEL MSTR IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING. THE MODELS ARE
SLOW TO CLEAR THE LOW CLOUDS OUT OF THE FAR NERN PLAINS ON TUE.
TEMPS ACRS NERN CO ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE COOLER TUE THAN
THEY WL BE ON MON. THE HYR ELEVATIONS WL ALSO SEE JUST A SLIGHT
COOL DOWN. TUE THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LIGHT PCPN OVR THE FAR
NERN AREAS...AND THEN IN THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS WL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVR AND NR THE MTNS AND ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR.
TUE NIGHT AND WED THE UPR RIDGE WL BE FLATTENED OVR THE AREA AS A
DISTURBANCE MOVES THRU WY AND INTO THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES. IT LOOKS LIKE LOW STRATUS WL RETURN TO THE PLAINS TUE
NIGHT/WED MORNING...THEN DISSIPATING BY NOON. THE FORECAST MODELS
ARE SHOWING AN INCREASE IN SUB TROPICAL MSTR OVR THE AREA FOR WED
AND THU...LEADING TO A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AN UPR RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BE OVR THE GREAT BASIN BY
FRI...BUT A DISTURBANCE MOVING OVR MAINLY ERN PORTION OF THE
AREA...IN THE NW FLOW ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE...IS FORECAST
TO BRING PCPN TO THE FRONT RANGE AND THE PLAINS. SAT THE UPR RIDGE
REMAINS OVR THE GREAT BASIN AND MOIST EASTERLY FLOW OVR ERN CO IS
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO PCPN OVR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 303 PM MDT SAT JUN 20 2015
VFR ALL TAF SITES. HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW CONVECTION BETWEEN 23Z
AND 02Z OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST COLORADO (NORTHEAST WELD...LOGAN...
SEDGEWICK AND PHILLIPS COUNTIES). NAM AND GFS KEEP ANY CONVECTION
DURING THE EVENING FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST. WILL NOT MENTION
TS IN THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT SINCE EXPECT CONVECTION TO STAY WELL
NORTHEAST OF THE DENVER METRO AREA. ON SUNDAY...DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST...AND LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL MIX OUT BY THE AFTERNOON. WITH DRIER AIR MASS OVER
THE REGION...CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION ARE VERY SMALL AND
LEFT ANY MENTION OF TS OUT OF TAFS. --PGW...WFO PUB
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WFO PUB 28
LONG TERM...WFO PUB 28
AVIATION...WFO PUB PGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
257 PM MDT SAT JUN 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT SAT JUN 20 2015
WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH PUSHED THROUGH THE PLAINS EARLIER TODAY HAS
BROUGHT E-NE WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS TO THE PLAINS/ERN
MOUNTAINS...WHILE TEMPS FARTHER WEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR
VALLEYS REMAIN LITTLE CHANGED. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY LOOK
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ISOLATED TSRA OVER THE ERN MOUNTAINS...THOUGH
LACK OF ANY TRIGGER AND FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL CIN HAS SO FAR KEPT
THINGS IN CHECK. LAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE NAM STILL HAVE SOME WEAK
TSRA DEVELOPING...WHILE HRRR AND OTHER MESOSCALE MODELS ARE MAINLY
DRY. WILL KEEP JUST SOME VERY LOW POPS FOR A FEW OF THE HIGHER PEAKS
INTO EARLY EVENING...THOUGH WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE
AREA REMAIN CONVECTION FREE AT THIS POINT. ANY CLOUDS WILL CLEAR
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN SAT MORNING MOST LOCATIONS. ON SUNDAY...HEIGHTS BUILD
SLIGHTLY AND WITH PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE PLAINS PRODUCING A
RETURN TO S-SW WINDS...EXPECT ALL AREAS TO BECOME VERY HOT ONCE
AGAIN...WITH READINGS NEAR/OVER 100F ACROSS THE LOWER ARK VALLEY.
AIR MASS LOOKS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY CONVECTION...SO WILL KEEP A
DRY FORECAST GOING ALL AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT SAT JUN 20 2015
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY
AND HOT WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA. THERE WILL ONLY BE A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HIGH BASED CONVECTION OVER
THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM
90 TO 100 ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS...70S AND
80S HIGH VALLEYS...AND 60S AND 70S MOUNTAINS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGE PUSHES EAST SOME...ALLOWING A
FETCH OF MODEST MOISTURE TO ENTER THE AREA. IN ADDITION...A
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS...SO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WILL BE EVIDENT
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MODELS DIVERGENT ON HOW
MUCH CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST TUESDAY EVENING. GFS HAS
THE MOST...WITH EUROPEAN BARELY ANY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW SEVERE STORMS BOTH DAYS WITH INSTABILITY VALUES INCREASING.
WITH SOME CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN
OVER THE WEEKEND.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE FORECAST TO BUILD TO OUR
WEST DURING THE PERIOD. GFS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE RIDING DOWN THE
NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE IN THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY TIME
FRAME...MORE SO THAN THE EUROPEAN. THERE WILL LIKELY BE DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THE FRONT
SIDE OF THE RIDGE....MORE CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES...IN THE
80S AND 90S PLAINS...70S AND 80S HIGH VALLEYS AND 50S TO 70S
MOUNTAINS. -TLM-
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY) ISSUED AT 256 PM
MDT SAT JUN 20 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL TAF
SITES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY WEST OF KCOS...BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE IN ANY TAF. EVEN LESS CHANCE
OF CONVECTION ON SUN.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...PETERSEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
631 PM MDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 PM MDT FRI JUN 19 2015
A FEW SHOWERS FORMING OVER EASTERN LARIMER AND WESTERN WELD
COUNTIES. THESE SHOULDN`T LAST LONG BUT HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO
INCLUDE THEM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT FRI JUN 19 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH A
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO. OVERALL THE AIRMASS IS
CAPPED...BUT HRRR RUNS STILL DEVELOPS SOME THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTN/EVNG. MOST LIKELY LOCATION WOULD APPEAR BE THE FAR NORTHEAST
PLAINS WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
BE. COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED BUT THE ONE OR TWO STORMS THAT DO
FORM COULD PRODUCE HAIL TO ONE INCH. A COOL FRONT IS PROGGED TO
PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS HOT BUT STILL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED STRATUS
CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT IN THE MORNING NORTH AND EAST OF DENVER.
THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ALONG THE FOOTHILLS/PALMER
DIVIDE. MAYBE ENOUGH MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE TO TRIGGER ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FM THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS EASTWARD BY
LATE IN THE AFTN.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT FRI JUN 19 2015
A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
A DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING
HOT AND DRY WEATHER TO NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN COLORADO.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. ONE OR
TWO OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE IF THE CAP CAN BE
BROKEN.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAY RETURN
TO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
BEGINS TO FLOW INTO COLORADO FROM THE SOUTH.
MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE REBUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES
ON THURSDAY...WITH A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETTING UP OVER
COLORADO. THIS PATTERN WOULD ALLOW OCCASIONAL COOL FRONT TO MOVE
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO WHICH COULD INCREASE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE. THE GFS HAS
ONE OF THESE FRONTS MOVING INTO REGION ON THURSDAY WITH BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS SHOWING ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. FOR NOW
IT NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO PINPOINT THE TIMING OF THESE FRONTS AND
THEIR IMPACT ON NORTHEASTERN COLORADO...THEREFORE HAVE ONLY MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS.&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT FRI JUN 19 2015
VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. LGT ESELY WINDS THIS AFTN
WILL TRANSITION TO S/SWLY THIS EVENING. THE WINDS MAY BECOME MORE
WESTERLY BY 12Z SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THIS FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH DENVER AROUND 15Z. COULD
SEE SOME PATCHY STRATUS CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT...WITH ISOLD TSTMS
POSSIBLE AFTER 22Z IN THE AFTN WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FOLLOWING FROPA. AMS COULD BE TOO CAPPED SO WL MENTION STORMS IN
THE PUBLIC FORECAST BUT KEEP IT OUT OF THE DENVER TERMINAL
FORECASTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM MDT FRI JUN 19 2015
VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. A STRONGER SOUTHEASTERLY PUSH
MOVED THROUGH THE AIRPORTS...WILL EXPECT THESE SPEEDS TO LIGHTEN
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO S/SWLY THIS
EVENING. THE WINDS MAY BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY 12Z SATURDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH
DENVER BETWEEN AROUND 15Z. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME PATCHY
STRATUS CLOUDS AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONT...ONLY INCLUDED IT IN
KDEN. FRONT SHOULD CAP THE AIRMASS...HOWEVER INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE AFTER 22Z IN THE
AFTERNOON. MENTION OF STORMS IN THE PUBLIC FORECAST BUT KEEP IT
OUT OF THE DENVER TERMINAL FORECASTS AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT FRI JUN 19 2015
MOUNTAIN TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM INTO THE WEEKEND...SO
RAPID SNOWMELT WILL CONTINUE. HEADWATER STREAMS WILL REMAIN HIGH
AND MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THAN THEY HAVE
BEEN. AS THIS WATER MOVES DOWNSTREAM THE LARGER RIVERS WILL ALSO
REMAIN HIGH AND MAY SEE ADDITIONAL SLIGHT RISES THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KRIEDERMAN
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN
HYDROLOGY...COOPER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
245 PM MDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT FRI JUN 19 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH A
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO. OVERALL THE AIRMASS IS
CAPPED...BUT HRRR RUNS STILL DEVELOPS SOME THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTN/EVNG. MOST LIKELY LOCATION WOULD APPEAR BE THE FAR NORTHEAST
PLAINS WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
BE. COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED BUT THE ONE OR TWO STORMS THAT DO
FORM COULD PRODUCE HAIL TO ONE INCH. A COOL FRONT IS PROGGED TO
PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS HOT BUT STILL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED STRATUS
CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT IN THE MORNING NORTH AND EAST OF DENVER.
THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ALONG THE FOOTHILLS/PALMER
DIVIDE. MAYBE ENOUGH MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE TO TRIGGER ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FM THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS EASTWARD BY
LATE IN THE AFTN.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT FRI JUN 19 2015
A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
A DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING
HOT AND DRY WEATHER TO NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN COLORADO.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. ONE OR
TWO OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE IF THE CAP CAN BE
BROKEN.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAY RETURN
TO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
BEGINS TO FLOW INTO COLORADO FROM THE SOUTH.
MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE REBUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES
ON THURSDAY...WITH A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETTING UP OVER
COLORADO. THIS PATTERN WOULD ALLOW OCCASIONAL COOL FRONT TO MOVE
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO WHICH COULD INCREASE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE. THE GFS HAS
ONE OF THESE FRONTS MOVING INTO REGION ON THURSDAY WITH BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS SHOWING ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. FOR NOW
IT NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO PINPOINT THE TIMING OF THESE FRONTS AND
THEIR IMPACT ON NORTHEASTERN COLORADO...THEREFORE HAVE ONLY MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS.&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT FRI JUN 19 2015
VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. LGT ESELY WINDS THIS AFTN
WILL TRANSITION TO S/SWLY THIS EVENING. THE WINDS MAY BECOME MORE
WESTERLY BY 12Z SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THIS FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH DENVER AROUND 15Z. COULD
SEE SOME PATCHY STRATUS CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT...WITH ISOLD TSTMS
POSSIBLE AFTER 22Z IN THE AFTN WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FOLLOWING FROPA. AMS COULD BE TOO CAPPED SO WL MENTION STORMS IN
THE PUBLIC FORECAST BUT KEEP IT OUT OF THE DENVER TERMINAL
FORECASTS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT FRI JUN 19 2015
MOUNTAIN TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM INTO THE WEEKEND...SO
RAPID SNOWMELT WILL CONTINUE. HEADWATER STREAMS WILL REMAIN HIGH
AND MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THAN THEY HAVE
BEEN. AS THIS WATER MOVES DOWNSTREAM THE LARGER RIVERS WILL ALSO
REMAIN HIGH AND MAY SEE ADDITIONAL SLIGHT RISES THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...COOPER
HYDROLOGY...COOPER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1145 AM MDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 AM MDT FRI JUN 19 2015
REMOVED MORNING FOG AND LOADED IN LATEST OBSERVATION
DATA...UPDATED FIRE WEATHER GRIDS FOR TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT FRI JUN 19 2015
ZONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER CO GETS FLATTENED AS ENERGY ENTERING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TRANSLATES ACROSS WY AND MT LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. LEE TROF STRENGTHS ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND MIXING
OUT SFC DEW POINTS. QUESTION WILL BE...BY HOW MUCH. EARLY MORNING
RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE QUITE DRY WITH AFTERNOON DEW POINTS DROPPING
INTO THE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...WITH 20S ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS. GFS AND RAP13 AGREE...BUT NAM12...AND NMM AND ARW
KEEP DEW POINTS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS. GIVEN
ALL THE RAINFALL LATELY...HAVE SIDED WITH THESE MOISTER RUNS...WHICH
LEANS FORECAST TOWARDS THE SLIGHTLY COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE VALUES.
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO A DEGREE OR
TWO WARMER.
ALL MODELS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED
TODAY...AND WITH DRIER AIR SPREADING INTO THE MOUNTAIN AREAS...THIS
LOOKS REASONABLE. RETAINED GENERALLY ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...THOUGH SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS AND NRN RATON MESA
REGION MAY SEE SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE...SO HAVE SCATTERED POPS
DOWN THAT WAY. CAPES LOOK FAIRLY LIMITED ACROSS THE MTS/I-25
CORRIDOR REGION. ONE AREA TO WATCH WILL BE FAR EASTERN PLAINS WHERE
HIGHER DEW POINTS ALONG AND EAST OF A DRY LINE COULD RESULT IN CAPE
VALUES OF AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE PRETTY WEAK
THOUGH WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY...SO IF STORMS CAN FIRE
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...THEY SHOULD BE PULSE IN NATURE...WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS WELL...BUT THIS THREAT SHOULD
BE HIGHLY LOCALIZED. OTHERWISE...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES. -KT
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT FRI JUN 19 2015
...HOT AND DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE ONGOING TREND FOR THE LONG TERM. AN UPPER RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE DESERT SW OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN
SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE REGION AND INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
U.S. BY TUE. THIS WILL KEEP HOT AND PREDOMINANTLY DRY CONDITIONS IN
PLACE FOR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUE...WITH MAX TEMPS EACH DAY IN
THE 90S TO NEAR 100F FOR THE PLAINS...AND 80S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.
ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION...MAINLY HIGH BASED...IS EXPECTED EACH
DAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF A WETTING RAIN
BUT A BETTER CHANCE FOR GUSTY WINDS. BEGINNING LATE TUE EVE...BOTH
THE GFS AND EC MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF A
MONSOON-LIKE TAP OF MOISTURE DEVELOPING...GIVING THE CWA A BETTER
SHOT AT SOME PCPN. MOORE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM MDT FRI JUN 19 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAFS SITES THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING...IT IS
POSSIBLE A THUNDERSTORM COULD MOVE INTO THE VCNTY OF KALS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
938 AM MDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 AM MDT FRI JUN 19 2015
REMOVED MORNING FOG AND LOADED IN LATEST OBSERVATION
DATA...UPDATED FIRE WEATHER GRIDS FOR TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT FRI JUN 19 2015
ZONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER CO GETS FLATTENED AS ENERGY ENTERING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TRANSLATES ACROSS WY AND MT LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. LEE TROF STRENGTHS ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND MIXING
OUT SFC DEW POINTS. QUESTION WILL BE...BY HOW MUCH. EARLY MORNING
RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE QUITE DRY WITH AFTERNOON DEW POINTS DROPPING
INTO THE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...WITH 20S ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS. GFS AND RAP13 AGREE...BUT NAM12...AND NMM AND ARW
KEEP DEW POINTS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS. GIVEN
ALL THE RAINFALL LATELY...HAVE SIDED WITH THESE MOISTER RUNS...WHICH
LEANS FORECAST TOWARDS THE SLIGHTLY COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE VALUES.
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO A DEGREE OR
TWO WARMER.
ALL MODELS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED
TODAY...AND WITH DRIER AIR SPREADING INTO THE MOUNTAIN AREAS...THIS
LOOKS REASONABLE. RETAINED GENERALLY ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...THOUGH SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS AND NRN RATON MESA
REGION MAY SEE SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE...SO HAVE SCATTERED POPS
DOWN THAT WAY. CAPES LOOK FAIRLY LIMITED ACROSS THE MTS/I-25
CORRIDOR REGION. ONE AREA TO WATCH WILL BE FAR EASTERN PLAINS WHERE
HIGHER DEW POINTS ALONG AND EAST OF A DRY LINE COULD RESULT IN CAPE
VALUES OF AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE PRETTY WEAK
THOUGH WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY...SO IF STORMS CAN FIRE
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...THEY SHOULD BE PULSE IN NATURE...WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS WELL...BUT THIS THREAT SHOULD
BE HIGHLY LOCALIZED. OTHERWISE...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES. -KT
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT FRI JUN 19 2015
...HOT AND DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE ONGOING TREND FOR THE LONG TERM. AN UPPER RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE DESERT SW OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN
SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE REGION AND INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
U.S. BY TUE. THIS WILL KEEP HOT AND PREDOMINANTLY DRY CONDITIONS IN
PLACE FOR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUE...WITH MAX TEMPS EACH DAY IN
THE 90S TO NEAR 100F FOR THE PLAINS...AND 80S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.
ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION...MAINLY HIGH BASED...IS EXPECTED EACH
DAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF A WETTING RAIN
BUT A BETTER CHANCE FOR GUSTY WINDS. BEGINNING LATE TUE EVE...BOTH
THE GFS AND EC MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF A
MONSOON-LIKE TAP OF MOISTURE DEVELOPING...GIVING THE CWA A BETTER
SHOT AT SOME PCPN. MOORE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT FRI JUN 19 2015
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS WILL SEE LOCAL IFR/LIFR
CIGS/VIS DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...WHICH
COULD AFFECT THE KCOS TAF SITE. BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE
TRENDS...WILL CARRY THIS IN A TEMPO GROUP THROUGH 13Z. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY FOR THE TAF SITES WITH WITH SPEEDS UNDER
15 KTS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS TODAY AND BE SPOTTIER IN COVERAGE THAN THE PAST FEW
DAYS. WILL NOT INCLUDE VCTS IN THE TAFS SINCE THESE ARE NOT LIKELY
TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
400 AM MDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT FRI JUN 19 2015
ZONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER CO GETS FLATTENED AS ENERGY ENTERING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TRANSLATES ACROSS WY AND MT LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. LEE TROF STRENGTHS ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND MIXING
OUT SFC DEW POINTS. QUESTION WILL BE...BY HOW MUCH. EARLY MORNING
RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE QUITE DRY WITH AFTERNOON DEW POINTS DROPPING
INTO THE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...WITH 20S ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS. GFS AND RAP13 AGREE...BUT NAM12...AND NMM AND ARW
KEEP DEW POINTS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS. GIVEN
ALL THE RAINFALL LATELY...HAVE SIDED WITH THESE MOISTER RUNS...WHICH
LEANS FORECAST TOWARDS THE SLIGHTLY COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE VALUES.
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO A DEGREE OR
TWO WARMER.
ALL MODELS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED
TODAY...AND WITH DRIER AIR SPREADING INTO THE MOUNTAIN AREAS...THIS
LOOKS REASONABLE. RETAINED GENERALLY ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...THOUGH SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS AND NRN RATON MESA
REGION MAY SEE SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE...SO HAVE SCATTERED POPS
DOWN THAT WAY. CAPES LOOK FAIRLY LIMITED ACROSS THE MTS/I-25
CORRIDOR REGION. ONE AREA TO WATCH WILL BE FAR EASTERN PLAINS WHERE
HIGHER DEW POINTS ALONG AND EAST OF A DRY LINE COULD RESULT IN CAPE
VALUES OF AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE PRETTY WEAK
THOUGH WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY...SO IF STORMS CAN FIRE
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...THEY SHOULD BE PULSE IN NATURE...WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS WELL...BUT THIS THREAT SHOULD
BE HIGHLY LOCALIZED. OTHERWISE...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES. -KT
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT FRI JUN 19 2015
...HOT AND DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE ONGOING TREND FOR THE LONG TERM. AN UPPER RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE DESERT SW OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN
SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE REGION AND INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
U.S. BY TUE. THIS WILL KEEP HOT AND PREDOMINANTLY DRY CONDITIONS IN
PLACE FOR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUE...WITH MAX TEMPS EACH DAY IN
THE 90S TO NEAR 100F FOR THE PLAINS...AND 80S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.
ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION...MAINLY HIGH BASED...IS EXPECTED EACH
DAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF A WETTING RAIN
BUT A BETTER CHANCE FOR GUSTY WINDS. BEGINNING LATE TUE EVE...BOTH
THE GFS AND EC MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF A
MONSOON-LIKE TAP OF MOISTURE DEVELOPING...GIVING THE CWA A BETTER
SHOT AT SOME PCPN. MOORE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT FRI JUN 19 2015
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS WILL SEE LOCAL IFR/LIFR
CIGS/VIS DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...WHICH
COULD AFFECT THE KCOS TAF SITE. BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE
TRENDS...WILL CARRY THIS IN A TEMPO GROUP THROUGH 13Z. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY FOR THE TAF SITES WITH WITH SPEEDS UNDER
15 KTS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS TODAY AND BE SPOTTIER IN COVERAGE THAN THE PAST FEW
DAYS. WILL NOT INCLUDE VCTS IN THE TAFS SINCE THESE ARE NOT LIKELY
TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1131 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 908 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2015
UPDATED TO END SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH 310 FOR BACA COUNTY. KEPT
ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS AND PLAINS THROUGH MIDNIGHT
WITH ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS
AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN FRONT RANGE ATTM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2015
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVED THRU MUCH OF THE SERN PLAINS TODAY AND
IS SITTING OVR THE SE CORNER OF THE STATE. BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY...DEW POINTS ARE MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPR 50S...AND
WARMING HAS BEEN SLOWED. CONVECTION HAS BEEN VERY LIMITED SO FAR
THIS AFTERNOON... WITH JUST SOME ISOLD STORMS OVR THE SRN MTNS.
SPC MESO ANALYSIS INDICATES CAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG OVR A
GOOD SHARE OF THE SERN PLAINS...NOT INCLUDING LAS ANIMAS COUNTY.
0-6KM SHEAR VALUES ARE ABOUT 40 KTS NR THE KS BORDER. WITH THE
BOUNDARY SITTING OVR THE SERN CORNER OF THE STATE...IT WL SERVE AS
FOCUS FOR TSTMS DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS AREA WL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS AND THUS A SEVERE TSTM WATCH WL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR BACA COUNTY. THE HRRR SHOWS THE BEST CHANCES FOR TSTMS
OVR THE SERN CORNER INTO EARLY EVENING AND THEN MOVING SOUTH OF
THE BORDER. IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS...THE HRRR
ALSO SHOWS TSTMS ALONG THE ERN MTNS WORKING THEIR WAY EASTWARD.
VERY LITTLE CHANCE FOR PCPN IS EXPECTED OVR WRN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.
ON FRI A WEAK UPR RIDGE WL BE OVR THE AREA...WITH CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO BE A BIT DRIER. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION SHOULD BE ISOLD
AND MAINLY CONFINED TO OVR AND NR THE MTNS AND MAYBE ACRS THE SRN
BORDER AREA IN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY. H7 TEMPS ACRS THE FORECAST AREA
FRI AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM ABOUT 17C-20C. AFTERNOON
HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 90S ACRS THE SERN PLAINS AND IN THE 80S OVR
THE HIGH VALLEYS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2015
...HOT AND DRY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY...
LOOKS LIKE A STABLE SUMMER PATTERN IS HERE TO STAY. A STRONG H5 HIGH
WILL BUILD OVER SRN CA THIS WEEKEND AND THEN DRIFT SLOWLY EWD OVER
NRN NM EARLY NEXT WEEK. H7 TEMPS WILL CLIMB FROM AROUND 16 DEG C
EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO 20 DEGREES OR MORE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. DURING THIS TIME...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF CONVECTION WITH VERY DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE SW. CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME LOCAL BUILD-UPS OVR THE MTS...AND MAYBE SOME VIRGA...BUT
MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL BE TOUGH TO COME BY. SO...HAVE DROPPED POPS
BELOW MENTIONABLE THRESHOLDS...MAINTAINING ONLY SINGLE DIGIT POPS
ON A DIURNAL BASIS OVER THE MTS. MOS TEMPS REMAIN AT 100 DEGREES OR
HIGHER FOR THE PLAINS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP TEMPS
OVER THE LOWER ARKANSAS JUST BELOW 100 SINCE SURFACE DEWS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY HIGH AND THIS MAY CUT THE HIGH END OFF JUST A BIT. BUT IT
WILL BE HOT. HOT AND DRY.
BY WED AND BEYOND...SOME DIFFERENCES BETWN THE GFS AND ECMWF AS THE
FORMER REBUILDS THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE DESERT SW WHILE THE LATTER
BREAKS THINGS DOWN A BIT MORE. BOTH MODELS BRING IN A BIT MORE
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...WHICH SHOULD BRING BACK DIURNAL
SHOWERS/STORMS AND HOLD HIGH TEMPS DOWN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS.
ENSEMBLE BASED TEMPS AND POPS LOOK REASONABLE IN THE EXTENDED...AS WE
SLOWLY HEAD TOWARD MORE OF A MID-SUMMER REGIME WITH THE MONSOON RIGHT
AROUND THE CORNER. ROSE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT COS...PUB AND ALS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG AT COS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH DEW PTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S AT THIS TIME. WARMER AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS
THE STATE. THIS WILL LEAD TO MUCH MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WHICH LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...MW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1030 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL WILL IMPACT THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY BRINGING A MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO AREAS
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAYBE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW RAINFALL SPREADING
INTO THE CATSKILLS AND HUDSON VALLEY FROM CENTRAL NY. MOST OF THIS
RAINFALL IS FAIRLY LIGHT IN INTENSITY...WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE. AT THIS TIME...THE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST RAINFALL IS
REMAINING TO THE SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN PA...WITH HEAVY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN PA/MD/DE.
THE REMNANTS OF TC BILL PASSING TO THE SOUTH WILL COMBINE WITH
THE RETURN FLOW AROUND A DEPARTING HIGH TO HELP PWATS RISE. THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1 1/2+ INCHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION AS THE
REMNANTS OF BILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TOWARD THE
NEW YORK METROPOLITAN AREA FOR LATER TONIGHT.
THE NEW 00Z NAM...AS WELL AS THE 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE...ALL SUGGEST
STEADY AND HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL SPREAD INTO OUR REGION LATE
TONIGHT...AS THE LOW PASSES SUCH SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND THE HEAVY
PRECIP OVER PA STARTS TO ROTATE TOWARDS OUR REGION. THIS WILL
ESPECIALLY BE TRUE FOR AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION ON SOUTHWARD.
RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY STEADY FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS...AND
MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY FOR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. INSTABILITY WILL BE
LIMITED...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN A FEW SPOTS
DUE TO SOME SMALL AMOUNTS OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN PLACE.
NO FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED SINCE RAIN RATES WON/T APPEAR TO
EXCEED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE. STILL...SOME PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AND IN URBAN AND LOW LYING AREAS MAY STILL OCCUR IN A FEW
LOCATIONS...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO
STATEMENT.
THIS RAINFALL WILL BE HELPING ACROSS THESE SOUTHERN AND EASTER
AREAS...AS THE ANNUAL DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL FOR POUGHKEEPSIE NY
STANDS AT -7.62 INCHES AND IS PITTSFIELD MA -4.18 INCHES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S...ALONG WITH THE MUGGY
AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE REMNANTS OF BILL ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK TO ACROSS THE NEW YORK
METRO AREA AND LONG ISLAND AND WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACTS MAINLY THE
AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT THROUGH THE
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
FAST ZONAL FLOW WILL BE ON THE APPROACH FOR SUNDAY. THE SYSTEM`S
WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY PLACING US
IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IS THE BIG QUESTION.
FLOW WILL BE UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH SHEAR INCREASING AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES INTO THE EVENING HOURS. IF THERE IS ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO WORK MULTICELLS CLUSTERS SHOULD FORM. HOWEVER
GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT ABOUT HOW STEEP THE LAPSE RATES
SHOULD GET. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS UPGRADED THE SEVERE
WEATHER RISK TO SLIGHT FOR MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...FOR
AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...WITH THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK. HAVE ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE FORECAST FOR GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY
RAINFALL ADDRESSING THE THREAT.
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
THE SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST. SOME RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD IN BETWEEN SHORT WAVES RESULTING IN MAINLY FAIR WEATHER WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PREDOMINANTLY WET PERIOD WITH MAINLY SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO RUN FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF SUNSHINE...
BUT ASIDE FROM TUESDAY...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED...SO THE MENTION IS FOR JUST SHOWERS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF TUESDAY FROM AROUND 70 DEGREES IN
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE LOWER MID HUDSON
VALLEY...BUT WILL GRADUALLY COOL DOWN...TO HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S BY FRIDAY. SATURDAY WILL AVERAGE ONLY SLIGHTLY
WARMER. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILDEST...WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 50S
TO LOWER 60S. BY FRIDAY NIGHT...LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50
DEGREES IN THE NORTHERN HIGH PEAKS...TO THE UPPER 50S IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY. NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS FOR ALBANY DURING THIS
PERIOD ARE LOWER 80S AND AROUND 59 DEGREES...RESPECTIVELY.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS HAVE LOWERED DOWN TO MVFR CONDITIONS FOR CIGS
FOR ALL SITES DUE TO ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CAUSING PLENTY
OF LOW STRATUS TO FORM. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...RAIN SHOWERS
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL DROP VSBYS
DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS AS WELL...AND EVENTUALLY IFR CONDITIONS FOR
BOTH VSBYS/CIGS BY AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS.
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BY AROUND 6-9 AM OVER THE REGION. IFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD END ONCE THE RAIN STOPS...BUT IT MAY TAKE UNTIL
THE MID TO LATE MORNING FOR FLYING CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ABOVE
MVFR LEVELS. DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTN HOURS...THERE MAY BE
SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR T-STORMS AROUND...BUT THESE WILL BE
RATHER SCT IN NATURE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME
WESTERLY AROUND 10 KTS OR SO.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL WILL IMPACT THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY BRINGING A MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO AREAS
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CONDITIONS
DRY OUT FOR MONDAY...HOWEVER MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
PWATS WILL BE IN THE RISE AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1 1/2+
INCHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MOST PORTION AS THE REMNANTS OF BILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TOWARD THE NEW YORK METROPOLITAN AREA. THE
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT NORTHWARD WITH THE HEAVIER QPF. THE GFS
IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE HOWEVER IT APPEARS TO BE HAVING CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK ISSUES AND CAN BE TRUSTED. A MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AS THE
HIGHER PWATS ARRIVE. NO FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST UNDER THE SEVERE DROUGHT CATEGORY ON THE
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR. THE ANNUAL DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE NY STANDS AT -7.62 INCHES AND IS PITTSFIELD MA -4.18
INCHES. SOME URBAN AND POOR DRAINING FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
PWATS WILL DECREASE SOME SUNDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF BILL MOVE AWAY
FROM THE REGION. HOWEVER A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FOCUS
FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
CONDITIONS DRY OUT FOR MONDAY...HOWEVER MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
746 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL WILL IMPACT THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY BRINGING A MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO AREAS
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAYBE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT...REGIONAL RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW ONLY A FEW
SHOWERS OVER EASTERN UPSTATE NY...BUT MORE ACTIVITY IS BECOMING
WIDESPREAD OVER CENTRAL NY AND IS HEADED EAST TO NORTHEAST. BASED
ON RADAR TRENDS AND THE LATEST 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE...SHOWERS WILL
START TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE REGION BETWEEN 10 PM AND
MIDNIGHT.
THE REMNANTS OF TC BILL PASSING TO THE SOUTH WILL COMBINE WITH THE RETURN
FLOW AROUND A DEPARTING HIGH TO HELP PWATS RISE. THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1 1/2+ INCHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION AS THE
REMNANTS OF BILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TOWARD THE
NEW YORK METROPOLITAN AREA.
THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT NORTHWARD WITH THE HEAVIER QPF.
THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE HOWEVER IT APPEARS TO BE HAVING
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES AND CAN BE TRUSTED. A MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
AS THE HIGHER PWATS ARRIVE FOR LATE TONIGHT. SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED TONIGHT HOWEVER THERE WILL BE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY SO HAVE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL IS NOT LIMITED TO THUNDERSTORMS. NO FLOOD WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED SINCE RAIN RATES WON/T APPEAR TO EXCEED FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE. STILL...SOME PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND IN
URBAN AND LOW LYING AREAS MAY STILL OCCUR IN A FEW LOCATIONS...AND
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO STATEMENT.
THIS RAINFALL WILL BE HELPING ACROSS THESE SOUTHERN AND EASTER
AREAS...AS THE ANNUAL DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL FOR POUGHKEEPSIE NY
STANDS AT -7.62 INCHES AND IS PITTSFIELD MA -4.18 INCHES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S...ALONG WITH THE MUGGY
AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE REMNANTS OF BILL ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK TO ACROSS THE NEW YORK
METRO AREA AND LONG ISLAND AND WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACTS MAINLY THE
AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT THROUGH THE
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
FAST ZONAL FLOW WILL BE ON THE APPROACH FOR SUNDAY. THE SYSTEM`S
WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY PLACING US
IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IS THE BIG QUESTION.
FLOW WILL BE UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH SHEAR INCREASING AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES INTO THE EVENING HOURS. IF THERE IS ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO WORK MULTICELLS CLUSTERS SHOULD FORM. HOWEVER
GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT ABOUT HOW STEEP THE LAPSE RATES
SHOULD GET. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS UPGRADED THE SEVERE
WEATHER RISK TO SLIGHT FOR MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...FOR
AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...WITH THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK. HAVE ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE FORECAST FOR GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY
RAINFALL ADDRESSING THE THREAT.
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
THE SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST. SOME RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD IN BETWEEN SHORT WAVES RESULTING IN MAINLY FAIR WEATHER WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PREDOMINANTLY WET PERIOD WITH MAINLY SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO RUN FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF SUNSHINE...
BUT ASIDE FROM TUESDAY...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED...SO THE MENTION IS FOR JUST SHOWERS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF TUESDAY FROM AROUND 70 DEGREES IN
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE LOWER MID HUDSON
VALLEY...BUT WILL GRADUALLY COOL DOWN...TO HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S BY FRIDAY. SATURDAY WILL AVERAGE ONLY SLIGHTLY
WARMER. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILDEST...WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 50S
TO LOWER 60S. BY FRIDAY NIGHT...LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50
DEGREES IN THE NORTHERN HIGH PEAKS...TO THE UPPER 50S IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY. NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS FOR ALBANY DURING THIS
PERIOD ARE LOWER 80S AND AROUND 59 DEGREES...RESPECTIVELY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS HAVE LOWERED DOWN TO MVFR CONDITIONS FOR CIGS
FOR ALL SITES DUE TO ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CAUSING PLENTY
OF LOW STRATUS TO FORM. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...RAIN SHOWERS
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL DROP VSBYS
DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS AS WELL...AND EVENTUALLY IFR CONDITIONS FOR
BOTH VSBYS/CIGS BY AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS.
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BY AROUND 6-9 AM OVER THE REGION. IFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD END ONCE THE RAIN STOPS...BUT IT MAY TAKE UNTIL
THE MID TO LATE MORNING FOR FLYING CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ABOVE
MVFR LEVELS. DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTN HOURS...THERE MAY BE
SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR T-STORMS AROUND...BUT THESE WILL BE
RATHER SCT IN NATURE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME
WESTERLY AROUND 10 KTS OR SO.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL WILL IMPACT THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY BRINGING A MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO AREAS
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CONDITIONS
DRY OUT FOR MONDAY...HOWEVER MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
PWATS WILL BE IN THE RISE AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1 1/2+
INCHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MOST PORTION AS THE REMNANTS OF BILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TOWARD THE NEW YORK METROPOLITAN AREA. THE
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT NORTHWARD WITH THE HEAVIER QPF. THE GFS
IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE HOWEVER IT APPEARS TO BE HAVING CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK ISSUES AND CAN BE TRUSTED. A MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AS THE
HIGHER PWATS ARRIVE. NO FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST UNDER THE SEVERE DROUGHT CATEGORY ON THE
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR. THE ANNUAL DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE NY STANDS AT -7.62 INCHES AND IS PITTSFIELD MA -4.18
INCHES. SOME URBAN AND POOR DRAINING FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
PWATS WILL DECREASE SOME SUNDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF BILL MOVE AWAY
FROM THE REGION. HOWEVER A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FOCUS
FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
CONDITIONS DRY OUT FOR MONDAY...HOWEVER MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1005 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND MAY
TRIGGER AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS CT...RI AND
SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE IN MASSACHUSETTS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY
AND COOLER WEATHER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT SWEEPING
FROM THE N AND THE REMNANTS OF ONCE TROPICAL STORM BILL MOVING IN
FROM THE SOUTH WILL MAKE FOR A WET SUNDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF WET-
WEATHER IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY PRIOR TO COOLER AND DRY
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WARMER AND WET CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO RETURN TO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM UPDATE...
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND DISCUSSION SPOT ON. THUS ONLY MINOR TWEAKS
TO CLOUD COVER FORECAST BASED ON BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST PER LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY. EXPECTING CLOUDS TO ERODE AS MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH ENTERING MAINE LATE THIS MORNING MOVES INTO THE
MARITIMES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SWITCH MID LEVEL FLOW OVER NEW
ENGLAND FROM WEAKLY CYCLONIC TO MORE ZONAL...PROVIDING LESS LIFT
TO SUPPORT CLOUD COVER. THUS EXPECTING INCREASING SUNSHINE AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES.
MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AND WARM WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE
LOW AND MID 80S AWAY FROM THE SHORELINE WHERE A SEABREEZE IS
POSSIBLE. A LOW RISK FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDER POSSIBLE...ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. HOWEVER
AS MENTIONED ABOVE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS WEAK. IN ADDITION WINDS
ALOFT AT 925 MB AND 850 MB ARE FROM THE WEST. SO AS SOLAR HEATING
DEEPENS BLYR AND WINDS MIX DOWN FROM ALOFT...SURFACE WINDS WILL
TREND TO THE WEST EVEN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LIMIT
SURFACE CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER IF A SEABREEZE BOUNDARY CAN PENETRATEINTO
THE COASTAL PLAIN THIS COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND/OR A
T-STORM.
OTHER LIMITING FACTOR AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER NOTED IS LACK OF
INSTABILITY. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS ONLY GENERATING 400-800J/KG
OF CAPE ALONG WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL LIMIT
UPDRAFT POTENTIAL. SO DESPITE MODEST TO STRONG WINDS ALOFT
PROVIDING GOOD DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED AND CONFINED TO CT/RI AND SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE IN MASSACHUSETTS. THEREFORE MUCH OF THE REGION
REMAINS DRY TODAY. ONLY CONCERN WILL BE AT SOUTH COASTAL BEACHES
FOR THE LOW THREAT OF LIGHTNING. OTHERWISE A VERY NICE DAY BY LATE
JUNE STANDARDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE S ACROSS SNE THIS MORNING. AS THE FRONT
PUSHES S CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO PT-MOSUNNY SKIES FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS PERSISTING THE LONGEST
ALONG THE S COAST.
COLD FRONT APPEARS TO GET HUNG UP NEAR THE SOUTH COAST 18-21Z
BEFORE MOVING S OF NEW ENG BY 00Z. MODELS DO GENERATE MARGINAL SFC
INSTABILITY NEAR THE FRONT WITH SBCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG WITHIN LOW
LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS SO POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
TSTM THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS RI AND SE MA.
TIMING OF DRIER AIR AND FALLING DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S WILL BE
CRITICAL TO THE INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT. IF THE
DRIER AIR IS DELAYED AND DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 60S INTO THE
AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE A GREATER CHANCE OF CONVECTION BUT IF
THESE LOWER DEWPOINTS MOVE IN QUICKER THIS WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE
TSTM DEVELOPMENT.
MODELS ALL GENERATE SOME CONVECTIVE PRECIP IN THE COASTAL PLAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND HRRR IS TARGETING RI AND SE MA SO WE HAVE CHC
POPS FOCUSED ACROSS NE CT...RI AND SE MA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
QUITE IMPRESSIVE AROUND 40-50 KT SO ANY CONVECTION WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY. CANT RULE OUT A STRONG TSTM BUT THINK MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG STORMS.
850 MB TEMPS 12-14C AND WITH DEVELOPING SUNSHINE AND NW WINDS IT
WILL BE A WARM DAY WITH HIGHS REACHING LOW TO MID 80S...EXCEPT 70S
ALONG THE COAST AND OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN WESTERN AND N MA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
A LINGERING SHOWER IS POSSIBLE EARLY EVENING ALONG THE S COAST
WITH THE FRONT...OTHERWISE COOLER AND DRIER POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS
OVERSPREADS THE REGION AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. CLEARING SKIES
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES BUT CLOUDS MAY LINGER DURING THE
NIGHT ALONG THE S COAST WHERE SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. MINS
MOSTLY IN THE 50S BUT SOME 40S POSSIBLE IN NORTH CENTRAL AND W MA.
SATURDAY...
HIGH PRES IN CONTROL AS IT MOVES E OF NEW ENG. EXPECT INCREASING
AFTERNOON CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY W NEW ENG. NAM APPEARS TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH RETUNING MOISTURE AND SHOWERS SO THIS WAS
DISCOUNTED AS HIGH PRES MAINTAINS DRIER AIR WITH HIGHER THETA-E
AIR REMAINING TO THE WEST. COOLER TEMPS IN THE 70S WITH SEABREEZES
LIKELY HOLDING TEMPS NEAR 70 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
- STILL LOOKING WET FOR SUNDAY WITH THE REMNANTS OF TS BILL
- SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT OUTCOMES
- WET-WEATHER IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
- UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DRY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
- A RETURN OF WARMER-WET CONDITIONS BY THE END OF THE WEEK
DISCUSSION...
A FORECAST THAT CONTINUES TO WOBBLE WITH RESPECT TO TWO WEATHER
DISTURBANCES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING: 1. REMNANTS OF TS
BILL AND 2. STRETCHED PACIFIC-ORIGIN ENERGY THROUGH THE QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW.
OF CERTAINTY REMNANTS OF TS BILL ARE ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH THETA-E
AIR / +2-INCH PWATS AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOCUSED ALONG THE NOSE
OF A H925-85 LLJ ALONG ITS E-PERIPHERY OF CYCLONIC FLOW. IT IS
WITHIN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENT NOSE THERE IS A EXPECTATION
OF A GOOD SLUG OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A MOIST-ADIABATIC PROFILE WITH HIGH FREEZING-
LEVEL HEIGHTS. SUCH ANTICIPATED OUTCOMES COULD YIELD THE POSSIBILITY
OF NUISANCE/URBAN/POOR-DRAINAGE FLOODING ALBEIT NOT AS CATASTROPHIC
AS WHAT HAS BEEN WITNESSED UPSTREAM ACROSS TX / OK AS THE FLOW IS
PROGRESSIVE AND REMNANTS ARE BEING SWEPT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE ZONAL-FLOW REGIME.
BUT UNCERTAIN IS THE EXACT TRACK OF THE REMNANTS WHICH CONTINUE TO
WOBBLE AND HOW IT INTERACTS WITH THE NEIGHBORING N-STREAM IMPULSE.
WHILE THE TRACK HAS WOBBLED WITHIN THE LATEST FORECAST RUNS THERE IS
ALSO THE QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
CAN CONNECT WITH THE RRQ OF THE NEIGHBORING UPPER-LEVEL-JET N. THERE
DOES SEEM TO BE SOME LEVEL OF DIFFLUENCE TO SUPPORT DEEP-LAYER LIFT
AND UPSLOPING-OVERRUNNING MOISTURE. THE TIMING MAYBE PERHAPS OFF
SUCH THAT TROPICAL REMNANTS OF BILL MAY BE LIMITED IN THEIR REACH N.
PERHAPS NOT. THIS IN ADDITION THAT BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF ASCENT THERE
HAS TO BE AN AREA OF DESCENT/SINKING AIR. THERE HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT A
CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE NE-CONUS OF LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT BETWEEN THE UNPHASED DISTURBANCES.
SOME UNCERTAINTIES TO PONDER...BUT NEVERTHELESS WILL KEEP WITH A WET
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF TS BILL SLIDE S AND A COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH FROM THE N AND W TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING. WILL
MAINTAIN HIGHER POPS ALONG THE S-HALF OF S NEW ENGLAND. MAIN THREAT
IS HEAVY RAIN WITH LESSER CHANCES OF THUNDER. BUT THIS COULD BE A
SWING AND A MISS PER THE 19.0Z GFS AND ECMWF.
THEREAFTER...NOT LOOKING SUMMER-LIKE. MID-LEVEL ENERGY THROUGH THE
ZONAL-FLOW REGIME IS SHUNTED S GRADUALLY BY A POLAR-ORIGIN WAVE OUT
OF THE HUDSON BAY REGION SWEEPING +8-10C H85 AIR ACROSS THE REGION.
SO AN INITIAL IMPULSE OF WET-WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK-SYNOPTIC
LOW IS ANTICIPATED MONDAY NIGHT. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS AND JUST
SHOWERS. COULD SEE RENEWED ACTIVITY TUESDAY WITH THE ENVIRONMENT
DESTABILIZING MAINLY ACROSS THE N AND W INTERIOR PRIOR TO A STRONG
COLD FRONT DIGGING S PUSHING THE BETTER MOIST-CONVERGENT FLOW REGIME
W TO E ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC TEMPERATURES. LOOKING AT BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY. IN THE END
COULD PERHAPS SEE A CHILLY MONTH OF JUNE OF WHICH TEMPS PRESENTLY
ARE AVERAGING 3 DEGREES BELOW-NORMAL THROUGH THE 18TH.
AS THE POLAR-WAVE RETREATS BACK N TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WILL
SEE THE RETURN OF WARMER AIR AND AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN PER A
CONSENSUS OF FORECAST GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
14Z UPDATE...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO 12Z TAFS. ANY ISOLATED
SHOWER/T-STORM WILL BE CONFINED TO CT/RI AND SOUTH OF THE MASS
PIKE IN MASSACHUSETTS THIS AFTERNOON. MOST TERMINALS REMAIN DRY.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
==================================================================
TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EARLY IFR/MVFR ERODE AND IMPROVE TO VFR BY 15Z OR SO. THEN HAVE
TO WATCH POTENTIAL FOR RENEWED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT MAINLY
FOCUSED OVER RI AND SE MA AFTER 18Z. CONFIDENCE WITH TSRA IS LOW.
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
A LINGERING SHRA POSSIBLE EARLY ALONG THE S COAST WITH THE
FRONT...OTHERWISE VFR BUT PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE NEAR THE S COAST.
SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CIGS.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR LATER THIS MORNING. A BRIEF SHOWER
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS MORNING. A WEAK SEABREEZE IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR LATER THIS MORNING. A BRIEF SHOWER
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MVFR / IFR ASSOC REMNANTS OF TS BILL. WIDESPREAD SHRA. POSSIBLE +RA
ALONG THE S-COAST. POTENTIAL VSBY IMPACTS. S-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO
20 KTS ASSOC WITH TS BILL BACKING NW WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
PUSHING REMNANTS OUT TO SEA.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
PERIODS OF -SHRA. LOW-END VFR. W/NW-WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
7 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
TODAY...SW WINDS BECOMING LIGHT THEN LOCALLY EAST ACROSS E MA
WATERS AS WEAK SEABREEZES DEVELOP. WINDS REMAINING SW OVER S
COASTAL WATERS. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.
TONIGHT...LIGHT NE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. ANY EVENING SHOWERS
FOCUSED IN THE RI WATERS TO MVY/ACK AND SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
WATERS.
SATURDAY...WINDS TURNING SE WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT DEVELOPING.
SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
REMNANTS OF TS BILL. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS
ESP OVER THE S-WATERS. ANTICIPATING VISIBILITY IMPACTS. POSSIBLE
FOG. S-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ASSOC WITH TS BILL BACKING NW
WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE PUSHING REMNANTS OUT TO SEA. SEAS
BUILDING IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET ON THE S/SE-WATERS.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LIGHTER W/NW-WINDS. SEAS FALLING BELOW 5-FEET. PERIODS OF SHOWERS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...KJC/NOCERA/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...KJC/NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...KJC/SIPPRELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
702 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND MAY
TRIGGER AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY AND COOLER WEATHER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT SWEEPING FROM THE N AND THE REMNANTS OF TS BILL
MOVING IN FROM THE S WILL MAKE FOR A WET SUNDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF
WET-WEATHER IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY PRIOR TO COOLER AND DRY
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WARMER AND WET CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO RETURN TO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
7 AM UPDATE...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA
ALBEIT DIMINISH OVER MOST LOCATIONS. THERE REMAINS AN INSTABILITY
BURST ACROSS THE AREA AS THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTION ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT PRESENTLY SLOWLY TOWARDS THE S AND
E THOUGH IS VERY MARGINAL WITH ELEVATED CAPES BARELY EXCEEDING 100
J/KG. HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE MORNING FORECAST.
FEEL THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW STILL APPLIES WITH RESPECT TO
EXPECTATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE S ACROSS SNE THIS MORNING. AS THE FRONT
PUSHES S CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO PT-MOSUNNY SKIES FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS PERSISTING THE LONGEST
ALONG THE S COAST.
COLD FRONT APPEARS TO GET HUNG UP NEAR THE SOUTH COAST 18-21Z
BEFORE MOVING S OF NEW ENG BY 00Z. MODELS DO GENERATE MARGINAL SFC
INSTABILITY NEAR THE FRONT WITH SBCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG WITHIN LOW
LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS SO POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
TSTM THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS RI AND SE MA.
TIMING OF DRIER AIR AND FALLING DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S WILL BE
CRITICAL TO THE INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT. IF THE
DRIER AIR IS DELAYED AND DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 60S INTO THE
AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE A GREATER CHANCE OF CONVECTION BUT IF
THESE LOWER DEWPOINTS MOVE IN QUICKER THIS WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE
TSTM DEVELOPMENT.
MODELS ALL GENERATE SOME CONVECTIVE PRECIP IN THE COASTAL PLAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND HRRR IS TARGETING RI AND SE MA SO WE HAVE CHC
POPS FOCUSED ACROSS NE CT...RI AND SE MA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
QUITE IMPRESSIVE AROUND 40-50 KT SO ANY CONVECTION WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY. CANT RULE OUT A STRONG TSTM BUT THINK MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG STORMS.
850 MB TEMPS 12-14C AND WITH DEVELOPING SUNSHINE AND NW WINDS IT
WILL BE A WARM DAY WITH HIGHS REACHING LOW TO MID 80S...EXCEPT 70S
ALONG THE COAST AND OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN WESTERN AND N MA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
A LINGERING SHOWER IS POSSIBLE EARLY EVENING ALONG THE S COAST
WITH THE FRONT...OTHERWISE COOLER AND DRIER POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS
OVERSPREADS THE REGION AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. CLEARING SKIES
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES BUT CLOUDS MAY LINGER DURING THE
NIGHT ALONG THE S COAST WHERE SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. MINS
MOSTLY IN THE 50S BUT SOME 40S POSSIBLE IN NORTH CENTRAL AND W MA.
SATURDAY...
HIGH PRES IN CONTROL AS IT MOVES E OF NEW ENG. EXPECT INCREASING
AFTERNOON CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY W NEW ENG. NAM APPEARS TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH RETUNING MOISTURE AND SHOWERS SO THIS WAS
DISCOUNTED AS HIGH PRES MAINTAINS DRIER AIR WITH HIGHER THETA-E
AIR REMAINING TO THE WEST. COOLER TEMPS IN THE 70S WITH SEABREEZES
LIKELY HOLDING TEMPS NEAR 70 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
- STILL LOOKING WET FOR SUNDAY WITH THE REMNANTS OF TS BILL
- SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT OUTCOMES
- WET-WEATHER IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
- UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DRY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
- A RETURN OF WARMER-WET CONDITIONS BY THE END OF THE WEEK
DISCUSSION...
A FORECAST THAT CONTINUES TO WOBBLE WITH RESPECT TO TWO WEATHER
DISTURBANCES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING: 1. REMNANTS OF TS
BILL AND 2. STRETCHED PACIFIC-ORIGIN ENERGY THROUGH THE QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW.
OF CERTAINTY REMNANTS OF TS BILL ARE ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH THETA-E
AIR / +2-INCH PWATS AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOCUSED ALONG THE NOSE
OF A H925-85 LLJ ALONG ITS E-PERIPHERY OF CYCLONIC FLOW. IT IS
WITHIN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENT NOSE THERE IS A EXPECTATION
OF A GOOD SLUG OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A MOIST-ADIABATIC PROFILE WITH HIGH FREEZING-
LEVEL HEIGHTS. SUCH ANTICIPATED OUTCOMES COULD YIELD THE POSSIBILITY
OF NUISANCE/URBAN/POOR-DRAINAGE FLOODING ALBEIT NOT AS CATASTROPHIC
AS WHAT HAS BEEN WITNESSED UPSTREAM ACROSS TX / OK AS THE FLOW IS
PROGRESSIVE AND REMNANTS ARE BEING SWEPT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE ZONAL-FLOW REGIME.
BUT UNCERTAIN IS THE EXACT TRACK OF THE REMNANTS WHICH CONTINUE TO
WOBBLE AND HOW IT INTERACTS WITH THE NEIGHBORING N-STREAM IMPULSE.
WHILE THE TRACK HAS WOBBLED WITHIN THE LATEST FORECAST RUNS THERE IS
ALSO THE QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
CAN CONNECT WITH THE RRQ OF THE NEIGHBORING UPPER-LEVEL-JET N. THERE
DOES SEEM TO BE SOME LEVEL OF DIFFLUENCE TO SUPPORT DEEP-LAYER LIFT
AND UPSLOPING-OVERRUNNING MOISTURE. THE TIMING MAYBE PERHAPS OFF
SUCH THAT TROPICAL REMNANTS OF BILL MAY BE LIMITED IN THEIR REACH N.
PERHAPS NOT. THIS IN ADDITION THAT BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF ASCENT THERE
HAS TO BE AN AREA OF DESCENT/SINKING AIR. THERE HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT A
CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE NE-CONUS OF LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT BETWEEN THE UNPHASED DISTURBANCES.
SOME UNCERTAINTIES TO PONDER...BUT NEVERTHELESS WILL KEEP WITH A WET
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF TS BILL SLIDE S AND A COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH FROM THE N AND W TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING. WILL
MAINTAIN HIGHER POPS ALONG THE S-HALF OF S NEW ENGLAND. MAIN THREAT
IS HEAVY RAIN WITH LESSER CHANCES OF THUNDER. BUT THIS COULD BE A
SWING AND A MISS PER THE 19.0Z GFS AND ECMWF.
THEREAFTER...NOT LOOKING SUMMER-LIKE. MID-LEVEL ENERGY THROUGH THE
ZONAL-FLOW REGIME IS SHUNTED S GRADUALLY BY A POLAR-ORIGIN WAVE OUT
OF THE HUDSON BAY REGION SWEEPING +8-10C H85 AIR ACROSS THE REGION.
SO AN INITIAL IMPULSE OF WET-WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK-SYNOPTIC
LOW IS ANTICIPATED MONDAY NIGHT. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS AND JUST
SHOWERS. COULD SEE RENEWED ACTIVITY TUESDAY WITH THE ENVIRONMENT
DESTABILIZING MAINLY ACROSS THE N AND W INTERIOR PRIOR TO A STRONG
COLD FRONT DIGGING S PUSHING THE BETTER MOIST-CONVERGENT FLOW REGIME
W TO E ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC TEMPERATURES. LOOKING AT BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY. IN THE END
COULD PERHAPS SEE A CHILLY MONTH OF JUNE OF WHICH TEMPS PRESENTLY
ARE AVERAGING 3 DEGREES BELOW-NORMAL THROUGH THE 18TH.
AS THE POLAR-WAVE RETREATS BACK N TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WILL
SEE THE RETURN OF WARMER AIR AND AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN PER A
CONSENSUS OF FORECAST GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EARLY IFR/MVFR ERODE AND IMPROVE TO VFR BY 15Z OR SO. THEN HAVE
TO WATCH POTENTIAL FOR RENEWED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT MAINLY
FOCUSED OVER RI AND SE MA AFTER 18Z. CONFIDENCE WITH TSRA IS LOW.
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
A LINGERING SHRA POSSIBLE EARLY ALONG THE S COAST WITH THE
FRONT...OTHERWISE VFR BUT PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE NEAR THE S COAST.
SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CIGS.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR LATER THIS MORNING. A BRIEF SHOWER
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS MORNING. A WEAK SEABREEZE IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR LATER THIS MORNING. A BRIEF SHOWER
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MVFR / IFR ASSOC REMNANTS OF TS BILL. WIDESPREAD SHRA. POSSIBLE +RA
ALONG THE S-COAST. POTENTIAL VSBY IMPACTS. S-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO
20 KTS ASSOC WITH TS BILL BACKING NW WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
PUSHING REMNANTS OUT TO SEA.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
PERIODS OF -SHRA. LOW-END VFR. W/NW-WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
7 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
TODAY...SW WINDS BECOMING LIGHT THEN LOCALLY EAST ACROSS E MA
WATERS AS WEAK SEABREEZES DEVELOP. WINDS REMAINING SW OVER S
COASTAL WATERS. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.
TONIGHT...LIGHT NE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. ANY EVENING SHOWERS
FOCUSED IN THE RI WATERS TO MVY/ACK AND SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
WATERS.
SATURDAY...WINDS TURNING SE WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT DEVELOPING.
SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
REMNANTS OF TS BILL. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS
ESP OVER THE S-WATERS. ANTICIPATING VISIBILITY IMPACTS. POSSIBLE
FOG. S-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ASSOC WITH TS BILL BACKING NW
WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE PUSHING REMNANTS OUT TO SEA. SEAS
BUILDING IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET ON THE S/SE-WATERS.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LIGHTER W/NW-WINDS. SEAS FALLING BELOW 5-FEET. PERIODS OF SHOWERS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...KJC/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...KJC/SIPPRELL
MARINE...KJC/SIPPRELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
651 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...AS WET
AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...RADAR REVEALS VERY LITTLE AS SHOWERS CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. THE ARRIVAL OF THE
06Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE SLOWING TREND OF THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION AND HRRR REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SUPPORT THE PREVIOUS
NOTION OF KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. THIS UPDATE REFRESHES THE HOURLY TRENDS PER
OBSERVATIONS.
THE SOMEWHAT SLOWER EXIT OF THIS FRONT AS WE WILL NEED TO RETAIN
SOME POPS THROUGH THE MORNING FOR LOCATIONS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
I90 THEN THROUGH THE I84 CORRIDOR INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
IN FACT...MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY
MAY BE ENOUGH FOR ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND A PASSING SHOWER.
TRENDS IN THE HRRR REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS ALSO SUGGEST THIS SLIGHT
CHANCE POSSIBILITY ALONG WITH SHORT TERM ENSEMBLES.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION AND INTO THE ADIRONDACK STATE PARK THROUGH THE DAY AS
H850 TEMPS SETTLE BACK INTO THE MID-UPR SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE
DACKS/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION TO AROUND 10C ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE I90 CORRIDOR. THIS WOULD SUGGEST TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE NORTH AND INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN GREENS TO AROUND 80F FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT. LOW LEVEL DRY ADVECTION WILL RESULT
IN A DROP IN DEWPOINTS AS WE FALL FROM THE 60S THIS EARLY MORNING
TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH...50S FOR MOST THE REGION BUT
HANGING AROUND 60F FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT WHERE THE
AFOREMENTIONED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION WITH DIMINISHING WINDS THAT BECOME LIGHT TO CALM...AS
THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVERHEARD. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE FOR
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO ONCE AGAIN BECOME SOUTHERLY WITH MOISTURE ADVECTING BACK
NORTHWARD. AS THE CANADIAN AIR MASS SETTLES SOUTHWARD FOR MOST OF
THE REGION...H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +7C TO +10C RANGE. IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE
CWFA WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE U40S TO M50S FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION/MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST...AND MAINLY 40-45F
NORTH OF ALBANY WITH A FEW U30S OVER THE SRN DACKS.
SATURDAY...THE LAST FULL DAY OF SPRING WILL BE A NICE START TO
THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC HIGH MOVING EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...INCREASING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT OVER THE
OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE REMNANT CIRCULATION FROM
BILL WILL ALSO APPROACH THE OH RIVER VALLEY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
POP UP LATE IN THE DAY MAINLY TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF ALBANY.
OTHERWISE FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
AREA WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND M60S TO U60S OVER THE MTNS.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WARM FRONT ADVANCES NORTHWARD WITH
THICKENING CLOUD COVERAGE ALONG WITH INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR
SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AS PWATS CLIMB TO BETWEEN
1.50-2.00 INCHES ALONG WITH NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.
MEANWHILE...REMNANTS OF BILL ARE PROGGED TO TRACK ALONG OR SOUTH
OF I80 WITH THE NAM THE FURTHEST NORTH WITH ITS TRACK THROUGH
SUNDAY. AS PER THE LATEST SWODY3...ALL OF OUR REGION IS WITHIN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS /5%/. A CLOSER EXAMINATION
OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE WELL
INTO THE 60S...SBCAPES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1K-2K J/KG MAINLY ACROSS
OUR EASTERN NY COUNTIES. HOWEVER...WITH PWATS EXPECTED TO BE 2-3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND MARGINAL SHEAR PROFILES OF
25-30KTS...SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH WET MICROBUST
POTENTIAL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
SUNDAY NIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF BILL...UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE AND WEAK
SURFACE REFLECTION WILL TRANSVERSE THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP THE
THREAT FOR MORE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS /ESPECIALLY
DURING THE EVENING HOURS/. OVERALL COVERAGE DOES DIMINISH WITH THE
COMBINATION OF THE LOSS WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME SUBSIDENCE
IN THE WAKE OF BILL. WE WILL LOWER POPS TO CHC-SCT ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY INTO
NW CT. IT WILL BE RATHER WARM AND MUGGY WITH MAINLY 60S FOR BOTH
TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD STILL LOOKS RATHER ACTIVE AS A FAIRLY
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET REMAINS PERCHED JUST TO THE NORTH
OF A STRONG RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST...AND MUCH
COOLER AIR OVER EASTERN CANADA.
A SERIES OF MCS AND PERHAPS A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE WILL
PROPAGATE UNDERNEATH THE JET (RIDGE ROLLERS). TIMING THOUGH CHALLENGING
WAS SURPRISINGLY PRETTY CONSISTENT AMONGST THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF AND CANADIAN LONG
RANGE METEOROLOGICAL MODELS.
MONDAY ACTUALLY LOOKS DRY WITH A BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM CANADA TO BRING A DRY WARM DAY TO OUR PARTS. THEN...ON TUESDAY
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MIGHT TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE ECMWF WAS MOST ROBUST WITH THIS FEATURE AND WPC
LEANED WITH THIS SOLUTION.
THAT SYSTEM IS GONE BY WEDNESDAY...AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO
KEEP IT DRY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT A MCS IS FORECAST TO MOVE
MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION...BUT IT MIGHT CLIP MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN
AREAS. FOR NOW WENT SLIGHT CHANCES EVERYWHERE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY STARTS OUT DRY BUT BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS OUR REGION.
THE 00Z GFS IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM.
EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS LIKE YET ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS OR PERHAPS
EVEN A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN MAINLY FOR FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES START OUT WARM FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S...LOCALLY MID 80S
IN THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER 80S SOUTH AND LOWER 80S WELL NORTH
OF ALBANY. AFTER THAT...TEMPERATURES LOOK SLIGHTLY BELOW FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE 70S...TO NEAR
80 SOUTH...MOST DAYS WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60.
PRECIPITATION LOOK TO CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WAS STILL WORKING THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING.
THIS FRONT CONTINUED TO BRING A FEW SHOWERS...AND MORE
IMPORTANTLY...LOW IFR CLOUDS TO KPSF AND KPOU. THERE WAS A LITTLE
IFR FOG AT KGFL WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13Z. OTHERWISE MVFR AT
KALB.
THE LOW CLOUDS AND MOST SHOWERS SHOULD END BY 14Z AS CONDITIONS
TRANSITION TO VFR. CIGS COULD PERSIST AT KPOU AWHILE LONGER AS
THE COLD SLOWS WHILE PASSING THAT TAF SITE.
WE HANDLED THE SHOWERS WITH VCSH IN THE TAFS.
AFTER 14Z...LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE WITH GOOD
VISIBILITIES.
THE SURFACE WIND...WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH AROUND 10KTS
LATER THIS MORNING..GUSTING UP TO 18KTS AT KALB AND KPSF BY
MIDDAY.
BY THIS EVENING...EXPECT A CLEAR SKY UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY AND
LIGHT WIND. THERE MIGHT BE SOME PATCHY FOG FORMING OVERNIGHT. FOR
NOW ASSIGNED 3SM BR (MVFR MIST) AT KGFL AND ONLY SHALLOW FOG
(MIFG) AT THE OTHER TAF SITES...AFTER 08Z.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY
SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...A
BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY ITS
PASSAGE. THIS FRONT MAY SLOW AS IT APPROACHES THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY WHERE THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ALONG WITH
SOME WEAK WIND CONVERGENCE INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY TO SUPPORT A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE
ADVECTING INTO THE MOST OF OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS WHERE
MIN RH VALUES DROP TO BETWEEN 35 AND 45 PERCENT...WITH NEAR 50
PERCENT SOUTH OF I90. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING TO A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION THROUGH THE DAY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS.
DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE
REGION. LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS EXPECTED AS RH VALUES
CLIMB TO BETWEEN 65 AND 85 PERCENT.
MOISTURE RETURNS THIS WEEKEND WITH INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY EXHIBIT AN INCREASE OF WITHIN
BANK FLOWS THIS WEEKEND AS THE COMBINATION OF HIGHER MOISTURE
CONTENT AND THE REMNANTS OF BILL PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
LOCAL REGION.
PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1.50-2.00 INCHES THIS
WEEKEND WHICH IS 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND ANY
CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. AT THE PRESENT
TIME...QPF FROM THE VAST ARRAY OF GUIDANCE SUGGEST BASIN AVERAGES
WOULD BE AROUND 1 INCH.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
631 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...AS WET
AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...RADAR REVEALS VERY LITTLE AS SHOWERS CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. THE ARRIVAL OF THE
06Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE SLOWING TREND OF THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION AND HRRR REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SUPPORT THE PREVIOUS
NOTION OF KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. THIS UPDATE REFRESHES THE HOURLY TRENDS PER
OBSERVATIONS.
THE SOMEWHAT SLOWER EXIT OF THIS FRONT AS WE WILL NEED TO RETAIN
SOME POPS THROUGH THE MORNING FOR LOCATIONS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
I90 THEN THROUGH THE I84 CORRIDOR INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
IN FACT...MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY
MAY BE ENOUGH FOR ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND A PASSING SHOWER.
TRENDS IN THE HRRR REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS ALSO SUGGEST THIS SLIGHT
CHANCE POSSIBILITY ALONG WITH SHORT TERM ENSEMBLES.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION AND INTO THE ADIRONDACK STATE PARK THROUGH THE DAY AS
H850 TEMPS SETTLE BACK INTO THE MID-UPR SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE
DACKS/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION TO AROUND 10C ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE I90 CORRIDOR. THIS WOULD SUGGEST TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE NORTH AND INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN GREENS TO AROUND 80F FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT. LOW LEVEL DRY ADVECTION WILL RESULT
IN A DROP IN DEWPOINTS AS WE FALL FROM THE 60S THIS EARLY MORNING
TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH...50S FOR MOST THE REGION BUT
HANGING AROUND 60F FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT WHERE THE
AFOREMENTIONED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION WITH DIMINISHING WINDS THAT BECOME LIGHT TO CALM...AS
THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVERHEARD. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE FOR
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO ONCE AGAIN BECOME SOUTHERLY WITH MOISTURE ADVECTING BACK
NORTHWARD. AS THE CANADIAN AIR MASS SETTLES SOUTHWARD FOR MOST OF
THE REGION...H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +7C TO +10C RANGE. IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE
CWFA WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE U40S TO M50S FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION/MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST...AND MAINLY 40-45F
NORTH OF ALBANY WITH A FEW U30S OVER THE SRN DACKS.
SATURDAY...THE LAST FULL DAY OF SPRING WILL BE A NICE START TO
THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC HIGH MOVING EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...INCREASING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT OVER THE
OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE REMNANT CIRCULATION FROM
BILL WILL ALSO APPROACH THE OH RIVER VALLEY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
POP UP LATE IN THE DAY MAINLY TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF ALBANY.
OTHERWISE FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
AREA WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND M60S TO U60S OVER THE MTNS.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WARM FRONT ADVANCES NORTHWARD WITH
THICKENING CLOUD COVERAGE ALONG WITH INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR
SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AS PWATS CLIMB TO BETWEEN
1.50-2.00 INCHES ALONG WITH NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.
MEANWHILE...REMNANTS OF BILL ARE PROGGED TO TRACK ALONG OR SOUTH
OF I80 WITH THE NAM THE FURTHEST NORTH WITH ITS TRACK THROUGH
SUNDAY. AS PER THE LATEST SWODY3...ALL OF OUR REGION IS WITHIN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS /5%/. A CLOSER EXAMINATION
OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE WELL
INTO THE 60S...SBCAPES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1K-2K J/KG MAINLY ACROSS
OUR EASTERN NY COUNTIES. HOWEVER...WITH PWATS EXPECTED TO BE 2-3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND MARGINAL SHEAR PROFILES OF
25-30KTS...SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH WET MICROBUST
POTENTIAL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
SUNDAY NIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF BILL...UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE AND WEAK
SURFACE REFLECTION WILL TRANSVERSE THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP THE
THREAT FOR MORE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS /ESPECIALLY
DURING THE EVENING HOURS/. OVERALL COVERAGE DOES DIMINISH WITH THE
COMBINATION OF THE LOSS WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME SUBSIDENCE
IN THE WAKE OF BILL. WE WILL LOWER POPS TO CHC-SCT ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY INTO
NW CT. IT WILL BE RATHER WARM AND MUGGY WITH MAINLY 60S FOR BOTH
TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD STILL LOOKS RATHER ACTIVE AS A FAIRLY
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET REMAINS PERCHED JUST TO THE NORTH
OF A STRONG RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST...AND MUCH
COOLER AIR OVER EASTERN CANADA.
A SERIES OF MCS AND PERHAPS A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE WILL
PROPAGATE UNDERNEATH THE JET (RIDGE ROLLERS). TIMING THOUGH CHALLENGING
WAS SURPRISINGLY PRETTY CONSISTENT AMONGST THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF AND CANADIAN LONG
RANGE METEOROLOGICAL MODELS.
MONDAY ACTUALLY LOOKS DRY WITH A BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM CANADA TO BRING A DRY WARM DAY TO OUR PARTS. THEN...ON TUESDAY
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MIGHT TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE ECMWF WAS MOST ROBUST WITH THIS FEATURE AND WPC
LEANED WITH THIS SOLUTION.
THAT SYSTEM IS GONE BY WEDNESDAY...AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO
KEEP IT DRY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT A MCS IS FORECAST TO MOVE
MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION...BUT IT MIGHT CLIP MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN
AREAS. FOR NOW WENT SLIGHT CHANCES EVERYWHERE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY STARTS OUT DRY BUT BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS OUR REGION.
THE 00Z GFS IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM.
EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS LIKE YET ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS OR PERHAPS
EVEN A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN MAINLY FOR FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES START OUT WARM FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S...LOCALLY MID 80S
IN THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER 80S SOUTH AND LOWER 80S WELL NORTH
OF ALBANY. AFTER THAT...TEMPERATURES LOOK SLIGHTLY BELOW FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE 70S...TO NEAR
80 SOUTH...MOST DAYS WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60.
PRECIPITATION LOOK TO CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CIGS HAVE BEEN MAINLY IFR EARLY THIS MORNING (LOW IFR AT KPOU AND
KPSF)...OCCASIONALLY LIFTING TO LOW MVFR.
A COLD FRONT WAS IN THE PROCESS OF CROSSING THE TERMINALS...AND
SHOULD CLEAR KGFL WITHIN THE HOUR...NOT CLEARING KPOU UNTIL AFTER
12Z.
SHOWERS WERE WIDELY SCATTERED WITH THIS COLD FRONT...BUT AGAIN THE
BIGGER IMPACT HAS BEEN LOW STRATUS. WE STILL BELIEVE THIS STRATUS
WILL LIFT AFTER 12Z.
THE SURFACE WIND WHICH HAS BEEN MAINLY SOUTHERLY...WILL CONTINUE
TO DO SO THROUGH ABOUT 12Z...THEN SHIFT TO THE W/NW AND THEN
EVENTUALLY NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AFTER THE MORNING PEAK.
THE WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10KTS...GUSTING UP TO 20KTS BY MIDDAY
AT KPSF AND KALB.
CLOUDS WILL LIFT BACK TO VFR AFTER 12Z...THEN EVENTUALLY BECOME
SCATTERED (EXCEPT AT KPOU WHERE A BKN CIG IS LIKELY MUCH OF THE
DAY BUT AGAIN AT 4500 KFT).
BY THIS EVENING...EXPECT A CLEAR SKY UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY AND
LIGHT WIND. THERE MIGHT BE SOME PATCHY FOG FORMING OVERNIGHT AND
WE WILL ADDRESS THAT POSSIBILITY MORE IN THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY
SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...A
BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY ITS
PASSAGE. THIS FRONT MAY SLOW AS IT APPROACHES THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY WHERE THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ALONG WITH
SOME WEAK WIND CONVERGENCE INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY TO SUPPORT A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE
ADVECTING INTO THE MOST OF OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS WHERE
MIN RH VALUES DROP TO BETWEEN 35 AND 45 PERCENT...WITH NEAR 50
PERCENT SOUTH OF I90. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING TO A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION THROUGH THE DAY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS.
DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE
REGION. LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS EXPECTED AS RH VALUES
CLIMB TO BETWEEN 65 AND 85 PERCENT.
MOISTURE RETURNS THIS WEEKEND WITH INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY EXHIBIT AN INCREASE OF WITHIN
BANK FLOWS THIS WEEKEND AS THE COMBINATION OF HIGHER MOISTURE
CONTENT AND THE REMNANTS OF BILL PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
LOCAL REGION.
PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1.50-2.00 INCHES THIS
WEEKEND WHICH IS 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND ANY
CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. AT THE PRESENT
TIME...QPF FROM THE VAST ARRAY OF GUIDANCE SUGGEST BASIN AVERAGES
WOULD BE AROUND 1 INCH.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
527 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...AS WET
AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...A LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SLIDE
SOUTHWARD AS THE COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE ADIRONDACK
PARK. LATEST TRENDS IN THE NCEP MODEL SUITE ALONG WITH THE HOURLY
RAP/HRRR...CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SOMEWHAT SLOWER EXIT OF THIS
FRONT AS WE WILL NEED TO RETAIN SOME POPS THROUGH THE MORNING FOR
LOCATIONS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF I90 THEN THROUGH THE I84 CORRIDOR
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. IN FACT...MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER AND A PASSING SHOWER. TRENDS IN THE HRRR REFLECTIVITY
FORECASTS ALSO SUGGEST THIS SLIGHT CHANCE POSSIBILITY ALONG WITH
SHORT TERM ENSEMBLES. OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH WILL BE BUILDING
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO THE ADIRONDACK
STATE PARK THROUGH THE DAY AS H850 TEMPS SETTLE BACK INTO THE
MID-UPR SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE DACKS/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION TO
AROUND 10C ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I90 CORRIDOR. THIS WOULD SUGGEST
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE NORTH AND INTO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREENS TO AROUND 80F FOR THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT. LOW LEVEL DRY
ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A DROP IN DEWPOINTS AS WE FALL FROM THE
60S THIS EARLY MORNING TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH...50S FOR
MOST THE REGION BUT HANGING AROUND 60F FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT WHERE THE AFOREMENTIONED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION WITH DIMINISHING WINDS THAT BECOME LIGHT TO CALM...AS
THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVERHEARD. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE FOR
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO ONCE AGAIN BECOME SOUTHERLY WITH MOISTURE ADVECTING BACK
NORTHWARD. AS THE CANADIAN AIR MASS SETTLES SOUTHWARD FOR MOST OF
THE REGION...H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +7C TO +10C RANGE. IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE
CWFA WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE U40S TO M50S FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION/MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST...AND MAINLY 40-45F
NORTH OF ALBANY WITH A FEW U30S OVER THE SRN DACKS.
SATURDAY...THE LAST FULL DAY OF SPRING WILL BE A NICE START TO
THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC HIGH MOVING EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...INCREASING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT OVER THE
OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE REMNANT CIRCULATION FROM
BILL WILL ALSO APPROACH THE OH RIVER VALLEY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
POP UP LATE IN THE DAY MAINLY TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF ALBANY.
OTHERWISE FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
AREA WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND M60S TO U60S OVER THE MTNS.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WARM FRONT ADVANCES NORTHWARD WITH
THICKENING CLOUD COVERAGE ALONG WITH INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR
SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AS PWATS CLIMB TO BETWEEN
1.50-2.00 INCHES ALONG WITH NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.
MEANWHILE...REMNANTS OF BILL ARE PROGGED TO TRACK ALONG OR SOUTH
OF I80 WITH THE NAM THE FURTHEST NORTH WITH ITS TRACK THROUGH
SUNDAY. AS PER THE LATEST SWODY3...ALL OF OUR REGION IS WITHIN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS /5%/. A CLOSER EXAMINATION
OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE WELL
INTO THE 60S...SBCAPES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1K-2K J/KG MAINLY ACROSS
OUR EASTERN NY COUNTIES. HOWEVER...WITH PWATS EXPECTED TO BE 2-3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND MARGINAL SHEAR PROFILES OF
25-30KTS...SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH WET MICROBUST
POTENTIAL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
SUNDAY NIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF BILL...UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE AND WEAK
SURFACE REFLECTION WILL TRANSVERSE THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP THE
THREAT FOR MORE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS /ESPECIALLY
DURING THE EVENING HOURS/. OVERALL COVERAGE DOES DIMINISH WITH THE
COMBINATION OF THE LOSS WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME SUBSIDENCE
IN THE WAKE OF BILL. WE WILL LOWER POPS TO CHC-SCT ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY INTO
NW CT. IT WILL BE RATHER WARM AND MUGGY WITH MAINLY 60S FOR BOTH
TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD STILL LOOKS RATHER ACTIVE AS A FAIRLY
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET REMAINS PERCHED JUST TO THE NORTH
OF A STRONG RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST...AND MUCH
COOLER AIR OVER EASTERN CANADA.
A SERIES OF MCS AND PERHAPS A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE WILL
PROPAGATE UNDERNEATH THE JET (RIDGE ROLLERS). TIMING THOUGH CHALLENGING
WAS SURPRISINGLY PRETTY CONSISTENT AMONGST THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF AND CANADIAN LONG
RANGE METEOROLOGICAL MODELS.
MONDAY ACTUALLY LOOKS DRY WITH A BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM CANADA TO BRING A DRY WARM DAY TO OUR PARTS. THEN...ON TUESDAY
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MIGHT TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE ECMWF WAS MOST ROBUST WITH THIS FEATURE AND WPC
LEANED WITH THIS SOLUTION.
THAT SYSTEM IS GONE BY WEDNESDAY...AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO
KEEP IT DRY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT A MCS IS FORECAST TO MOVE
MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION...BUT IT MIGHT CLIP MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN
AREAS. FOR NOW WENT SLIGHT CHANCES EVERYWHERE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY STARTS OUT DRY BUT BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS OUR REGION.
THE 00Z GFS IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM.
EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS LIKE YET ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS OR PERHAPS
EVEN A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN MAINLY FOR FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES START OUT WARM FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S...LOCALLY MID 80S
IN THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER 80S SOUTH AND LOWER 80S WELL NORTH
OF ALBANY. AFTER THAT...TEMPERATURES LOOK SLIGHTLY BELOW FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE 70S...TO NEAR
80 SOUTH...MOST DAYS WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60.
PRECIPITATION LOOK TO CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CIGS HAVE BEEN MAINLY IFR EARLY THIS MORNING (LOW IFR AT KPOU AND
KPSF)...OCCASIONALLY LIFTING TO LOW MVFR.
A COLD FRONT WAS IN THE PROCESS OF CROSSING THE TERMINALS...AND
SHOULD CLEAR KGFL WITHIN THE HOUR...NOT CLEARING KPOU UNTIL AFTER
12Z.
SHOWERS WERE WIDELY SCATTERED WITH THIS COLD FRONT...BUT AGAIN THE
BIGGER IMPACT HAS BEEN LOW STRATUS. WE STILL BELIEVE THIS STRATUS
WILL LIFT AFTER 12Z.
THE SURFACE WIND WHICH HAS BEEN MAINLY SOUTHERLY...WILL CONTINUE
TO DO SO THROUGH ABOUT 12Z...THEN SHIFT TO THE W/NW AND THEN
EVENTUALLY NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AFTER THE MORNING PEAK.
THE WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10KTS...GUSTING UP TO 20KTS BY MIDDAY
AT KPSF AND KALB.
CLOUDS WILL LIFT BACK TO VFR AFTER 12Z...THEN EVENTUALLY BECOME
SCATTERED (EXCEPT AT KPOU WHERE A BKN CIG IS LIKELY MUCH OF THE
DAY BUT AGAIN AT 4500 KFT).
BY THIS EVENING...EXPECT A CLEAR SKY UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY AND
LIGHT WIND. THERE MIGHT BE SOME PATCHY FOG FORMING OVERNIGHT AND
WE WILL ADDRESS THAT POSSIBILITY MORE IN THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY
SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...A
BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY ITS
PASSAGE. THIS FRONT MAY SLOW AS IT APPROACHES THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY WHERE THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ALONG WITH
SOME WEAK WIND CONVERGENCE INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY TO SUPPORT A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE
ADVECTING INTO THE MOST OF OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS WHERE
MIN RH VALUES DROP TO BETWEEN 35 AND 45 PERCENT...WITH NEAR 50
PERCENT SOUTH OF I90. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING TO A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION THROUGH THE DAY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS.
DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE
REGION. LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS EXPECTED AS RH VALUES
CLIMB TO BETWEEN 65 AND 85 PERCENT.
MOISTURE RETURNS THIS WEEKEND WITH INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY EXHIBIT AN INCREASE OF WITHIN
BANK FLOWS THIS WEEKEND AS THE COMBINATION OF HIGHER MOISTURE
CONTENT AND THE REMNANTS OF BILL PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
LOCAL REGION.
PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1.50-2.00 INCHES THIS
WEEKEND WHICH IS 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND ANY
CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. AT THE PRESENT
TIME...QPF FROM THE VAST ARRAY OF GUIDANCE SUGGEST BASIN AVERAGES
WOULD BE AROUND 1 INCH.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
427 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...AS WET
AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...A LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SLIDE
SOUTHWARD AS THE COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE ADIRONDACK
PARK. LATEST TRENDS IN THE NCEP MODEL SUITE ALONG WITH THE HOURLY
RAP/HRRR...CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SOMEWHAT SLOWER EXIT OF THIS
FRONT AS WE WILL NEED TO RETAIN SOME POPS THROUGH THE MORNING FOR
LOCATIONS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF I90 THEN THROUGH THE I84 CORRIDOR
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. IN FACT...MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER AND A PASSING SHOWER. TRENDS IN THE HRRR REFLECTIVITY
FORECASTS ALSO SUGGEST THIS SLIGHT CHANCE POSSIBILITY ALONG WITH
SHORT TERM ENSEMBLES. OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH WILL BE BUILDING
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO THE ADIRONDACK
STATE PARK THROUGH THE DAY AS H850 TEMPS SETTLE BACK INTO THE
MID-UPR SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE DACKS/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION TO
AROUND 10C ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I90 CORRIDOR. THIS WOULD SUGGEST
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE NORTH AND INTO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREENS TO AROUND 80F FOR THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT. LOW LEVEL DRY
ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A DROP IN DEWPOINTS AS WE FALL FROM THE
60S THIS EARLY MORNING TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH...50S FOR
MOST THE REGION BUT HANGING AROUND 60F FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT WHERE THE AFOREMENTIONED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION WITH DIMINISHING WINDS THAT BECOME LIGHT TO CALM...AS
THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVERHEARD. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE FOR
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO ONCE AGAIN BECOME SOUTHERLY WITH MOISTURE ADVECTING BACK
NORTHWARD. AS THE CANADIAN AIR MASS SETTLES SOUTHWARD FOR MOST OF
THE REGION...H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +7C TO +10C RANGE. IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE
CWFA WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE U40S TO M50S FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION/MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST...AND MAINLY 40-45F
NORTH OF ALBANY WITH A FEW U30S OVER THE SRN DACKS.
SATURDAY...THE LAST FULL DAY OF SPRING WILL BE A NICE START TO
THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC HIGH MOVING EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...INCREASING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT OVER THE
OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE REMNANT CIRCULATION FROM
BILL WILL ALSO APPROACH THE OH RIVER VALLEY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
POP UP LATE IN THE DAY MAINLY TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF ALBANY.
OTHERWISE FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
AREA WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND M60S TO U60S OVER THE MTNS.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WARM FRONT ADVANCES NORTHWARD WITH
THICKENING CLOUD COVERAGE ALONG WITH INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR
SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AS PWATS CLIMB TO BETWEEN
1.50-2.00 INCHES ALONG WITH NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.
MEANWHILE...REMNANTS OF BILL ARE PROGGED TO TRACK ALONG OR SOUTH
OF I80 WITH THE NAM THE FURTHEST NORTH WITH ITS TRACK THROUGH
SUNDAY. AS PER THE LATEST SWODY3...ALL OF OUR REGION IS WITHIN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS /5%/. A CLOSER EXAMINATION
OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE WELL
INTO THE 60S...SBCAPES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1K-2K J/KG MAINLY ACROSS
OUR EASTERN NY COUNTIES. HOWEVER...WITH PWATS EXPECTED TO BE 2-3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND MARGINAL SHEAR PROFILES OF
25-30KTS...SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH WET MICROBUST
POTENTIAL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
SUNDAY NIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF BILL...UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE AND WEAK
SURFACE REFLECTION WILL TRANSVERSE THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP THE
THREAT FOR MORE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS /ESPECIALLY
DURING THE EVENING HOURS/. OVERALL COVERAGE DOES DIMINISH WITH THE
COMBINATION OF THE LOSS WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME SUBSIDENCE
IN THE WAKE OF BILL. WE WILL LOWER POPS TO CHC-SCT ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY INTO
NW CT. IT WILL BE RATHER WARM AND MUGGY WITH MAINLY 60S FOR BOTH
TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD STILL LOOKS RATHER ACTIVE AS A FAIRLY
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET REMAINS PERCHED JUST TO THE NORTH
OF A STRONG RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST...AND MUCH
COOLER AIR OVER EASTERN CANADA.
A SERIES OF MCS AND PERHAPS A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE WILL
PROPAGATE UNDERNEATH THE JET (RIDGE ROLLERS). TIMING THOUGH CHALLENGING
WAS SURPRISINGLY PRETTY CONSISTENT AMONGST THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF AND CANADIAN LONG
RANGE METEOROLOGICAL MODELS.
MONDAY ACTUALLY LOOKS DRY WITH A BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM CANADA TO BRING A DRY WARM DAY TO OUR PARTS. THEN...ON TUESDAY
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MIGHT TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE ECMWF WAS MOST ROBUST WITH THIS FEATURE AND WPC
LEANED WITH THIS SOLUTION.
THAT SYSTEM IS GONE BY WEDNESDAY...AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO
KEEP IT DRY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT A MCS IS FORECAST TO MOVE
MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION...BUT IT MIGHT CLIP MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN
AREAS. FOR NOW WENT SLIGHT CHANCES EVERYWHERE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY STARTS OUT DRY BUT BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS OUR REGION.
THE 00Z GFS IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM.
EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS LIKE YET ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS OR PERHAPS
EVEN A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN MAINLY FOR FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES START OUT WARM FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S...LOCALLY MID 80S
IN THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER 80S SOUTH AND LOWER 80S WELL NORTH
OF ALBANY. AFTER THAT...TEMPERATURES LOOK SLIGHTLY BELOW FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE 70S...TO NEAR
80 SOUTH...MOST DAYS WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60.
PRECIPITATION LOOK TO CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z...THEN VFR THEREAFTER.
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS.
RADARS INDICATED A LITTLE MORE ACTIVITY REGARDING SCATTERED
SHOWERS WORKING INTO THE TAF SITES. THERE WAS AN EARLIER LIGHTNING
STRIKE OR TWO ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF KGFL. AS OF
540Z...THERE HAD BEEN NONE IN THE BETTER PART OF AN HOUR.
EXPECT OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS TONIGHT DUE BUT PREVAILING LOW MVFR
(EXTRA FUEL REQUIRED) THROUGH THE MORNING PEAK AT ALL THE TAF
SITES. VISIBILITY WILL BE MAINLY VFR BUT OCCASIONAL DOWN TO MVFR
IN SHOWERS AND MIST.
THE WIND WHICH HAS BEEN MAINLY SOUTHERLY...WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO
THROUGH ABOUT 10Z...THEN SHIFT TO THE W/NW AND THEN EVENTUALLY
NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AFTER THE MORNING PEAK. THEY WILL
AVERAGE AROUND 10KTS...GUSTING UP TO 20KTS BY MIDDAY AT KPSF AND
KALB.
CLOUDS WILL LIFT BACK TO VFR AFTER 12Z...THEN EVENTUALLY BECOME
SCATTERED (EXCEPT AT KPOU WHERE A BKN CIG IS LIKELY MUCH OF THE
DAY BUT AGAIN AT 4500 KFT).
BY THIS EVENING...EXPECT A CLEAR SKY UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY AND
LIGHT WIND. THERE MIGHT BE SOME PATCHY FOG FORMING OVERNIGHT AND
WE WILL ADDRESS THAT POSSIBILITY MORE IN THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...A
BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY ITS
PASSAGE. THIS FRONT MAY SLOW AS IT APPROACHES THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY WHERE THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ALONG WITH
SOME WEAK WIND CONVERGENCE INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY TO SUPPORT A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE
ADVECTING INTO THE MOST OF OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS WHERE
MIN RH VALUES DROP TO BETWEEN 35 AND 45 PERCENT...WITH NEAR 50
PERCENT SOUTH OF I90. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING TO A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION THROUGH THE DAY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS.
DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE
REGION. LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS EXPECTED AS RH VALUES
CLIMB TO BETWEEN 65 AND 85 PERCENT.
MOISTURE RETURNS THIS WEEKEND WITH INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY EXHIBIT AN INCREASE OF WITHIN
BANK FLOWS THIS WEEKEND AS THE COMBINATION OF HIGHER MOISTURE
CONTENT AND THE REMNANTS OF BILL PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
LOCAL REGION.
PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1.50-2.00 INCHES THIS
WEEKEND WHICH IS 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND ANY
CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. AT THE PRESENT
TIME...QPF FROM THE VAST ARRAY OF GUIDANCE SUGGEST BASIN AVERAGES
WOULD BE AROUND 1 INCH.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
342 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND MAY
TRIGGER AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY AND COOLER WEATHER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT SWEEPING FROM THE N AND THE REMNANTS OF TS BILL
MOVING IN FROM THE S WILL MAKE FOR A POTENTIALLY WET SUNDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF WET-WEATHER IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY PRIOR
TO COOLER AND DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WARMER AND
WET CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO THE AREA BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WIDELY SCT SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO SNE FROM THE WEST ASSOCD WITH
WEAK INSTABILITY BURST. NOTING SOME TSTMS S OF LI AND GIVEN SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM EARLY THIS
MORNING.
A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AFTER DAYBREAK AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL BE MOVING S ACROSS SNE THIS MORNING. AS THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO PT-MOSUNNY SKIES FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS
PERSISTING THE LONGEST ALONG THE S COAST. COLD FRONT APPEARS TO
GET HUNG UP NEAR THE SOUTH COAST 18-21Z BEFORE MOVING S OF NEW ENG
BY 00Z. MODELS DO GENERATE MARGINAL SFC INSTABILITY NEAR THE
FRONT WITH SBCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG WITHIN LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE
AXIS SO POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTM THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS RI AND SE MA. TIMING OF DRIER
AIR AND FALLING DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S WILL BE CRITICAL TO THE
INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT. IF THE DRIER AIR IS
DELAYED AND DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 60S INTO THE AFTERNOON THERE
WILL BE A GREATER CHANCE OF CONVECTION BUT IF THESE LOWER
DEWPOINTS MOVE IN QUICKER THIS WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE TSTM
DEVELOPMENT. MODELS ALL GENERATE SOME CONVECTIVE PRECIP IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND HRRR IS TARGETING RI AND SE MA
SO WE HAVE CHC POPS FOCUSED ACROSS NE CT...RI AND SE MA. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE AROUND 40-50 KT SO ANY CONVECTION
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. CANT RULE OUT A STRONG TSTM BUT
THINK MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS.
850 MB TEMPS 12-14C AND WITH DEVELOPING SUNSHINE AND NW WINDS IT
WILL BE A WARM DAY WITH HIGHS REACHING LOW TO MID 80S...EXCEPT 70S
ALONG THE COAST AND OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN WESTERN AND N MA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
A LINGERING SHOWER IS POSSIBLE EARLY EVENING ALONG THE S COAST
WITH THE FRONT...OTHERWISE COOLER AND DRIER POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS
OVERSPREADS THE REGION AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. CLEARING SKIES
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES BUT CLOUDS MAY LINGER DURING THE
NIGHT ALONG THE S COAST WHERE SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. MINS
MOSTLY IN THE 50S BUT SOME 40S POSSIBLE IN NORTH CENTRAL AND W MA.
SATURDAY...
HIGH PRES IN CONTROL AS IT MOVES E OF NEW ENG. EXPECT INCREASING
AFTERNOON CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY W NEW ENG. NAM APPEARS TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH RETUNING MOISTURE AND SHOWERS SO THIS WAS
DISCOUNTED AS HIGH PRES MAINTAINS DRIER AIR WITH HIGHER THETA-E
AIR REMAINING TO THE WEST. COOLER TEMPS IN THE 70S WITH SEABREEZES
LIKELY HOLDING TEMPS NEAR 70 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* STILL LOOKING WET FOR SUNDAY WITH THE REMNANTS OF TS BILL
* SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT OUTCOMES
* WET-WEATHER IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
* UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DRY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A RETURN OF WARMER-WET CONDITIONS BY THE END OF THE WEEK
DISCUSSION...
A FORECAST THAT CONTINUES TO WOBBLE WITH RESPECT TO TWO WEATHER
DISTURBANCES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING: 1. REMNANTS OF TS
BILL AND 2. STRETCHED PACIFIC-ORIGIN ENERGY THROUGH THE QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW.
OF CERTAINTY REMNANTS OF TS BILL ARE ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH THETA-E
AIR / +2-INCH PWATS AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOCUSED ALONG THE NOSE
OF A H925-85 LLJ ALONG ITS E-PERIPHERY OF CYCLONIC FLOW. IT IS
WITHIN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENT NOSE THERE IS A EXPECTATION
OF A GOOD SLUG OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A MOIST-ADIABATIC PROFILE WITH HIGH FREEZING-
LEVEL HEIGHTS. SUCH ANTICIPATED OUTCOMES COULD YIELD THE POSSIBILITY
OF NUISANCE/URBAN/POOR-DRAINAGE FLOODING ALBEIT NOT AS CATASTROPHIC
AS WHAT HAS BEEN WITNESSED UPSTREAM ACROSS TX / OK AS THE FLOW IS
PROGRESSIVE AND REMNANTS ARE BEING SWEPT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE ZONAL-FLOW REGIME.
BUT UNCERTAIN IS THE EXACT TRACK OF THE REMNANTS WHICH CONTINUE TO
WOBBLE AND HOW IT INTERACTS WITH THE NEIGHBORING N-STREAM IMPULSE.
WHILE THE TRACK HAS WOBBLED WITHIN THE LATEST FORECAST RUNS THERE IS
ALSO THE QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
CAN CONNECT WITH THE RRQ OF THE NEIGHBORING UPPER-LEVEL-JET N. THERE
DOES SEEM TO BE SOME LEVEL OF DIFFLUENCE TO SUPPORT DEEP-LAYER LIFT
AND UPSLOPING-OVERRUNNING MOISTURE. THE TIMING MAYBE PERHAPS OFF
SUCH THAT TROPICAL REMNANTS OF BILL MAY BE LIMITED IN THEIR REACH N.
PERHAPS NOT. THIS IN ADDITION THAT BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF ASCENT THERE
HAS TO BE AN AREA OF DESCENT/SINKING AIR. THERE HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT A
CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE NE-CONUS OF LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT BETWEEN THE UNPHASED DISTURBANCES.
SOME UNCERTAINTIES TO PONDER...BUT NEVERTHELESS WILL KEEP WITH A WET
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF TS BILL SLIDE S AND A COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH FROM THE N AND W TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING. WILL
MAINTAIN HIGHER POPS ALONG THE S-HALF OF S NEW ENGLAND. MAIN THREAT
IS HEAVY RAIN WITH LESSER CHANCES OF THUNDER. BUT THIS COULD BE A
SWING AND A MISS PER THE 19.0Z GFS AND ECMWF.
THEREAFTER...NOT LOOKING SUMMER-LIKE. MID-LEVEL ENERGY THROUGH THE
ZONAL-FLOW REGIME IS SHUNTED S GRADUALLY BY A POLAR-ORIGIN WAVE OUT
OF THE HUDSON BAY REGION SWEEPING +8-10C H85 AIR ACROSS THE REGION.
SO AN INITIAL IMPULSE OF WET-WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK-SYNOPTIC
LOW IS ANTICIPATED MONDAY NIGHT. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS AND JUST
SHOWERS. COULD SEE RENEWED ACTIVITY TUESDAY WITH THE ENVIRONMENT
DESTABILIZING MAINLY ACROSS THE N AND W INTERIOR PRIOR TO A STRONG
COLD FRONT DIGGING S PUSHING THE BETTER MOIST-CONVERGENT FLOW REGIME
W TO E ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC TEMPERATURES. LOOKING AT BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY. IN THE END
COULD PERHAPS SEE A CHILLY MONTH OF JUNE OF WHICH TEMPS PRESENTLY
ARE AVERAGING 3 DEGREES BELOW-NORMAL THROUGH THE 18TH.
AS THE POLAR-WAVE RETREATS BACK N TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WILL
SEE THE RETURN OF WARMER AIR AND AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN PER A
CONSENSUS OF FORECAST GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH LOCALIZED IFR POSSIBLE
ACROSS CT AND WESTERN MA. WIDELY SCT SHOWERS.
TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EARLY IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS QUICKLY
ERODES AND LIFTS TO VFR BY 15Z OR SO. THEN HAVE TO WATCH POTENTIAL
FOR RENEWED SHOWER/T-STORM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY FOCUSED OVER RI AND
SE MA AFT 18Z AS COLD FRONT GETS HUNG UP NEAR THE S COAST.
CONFIDENCE IN TSTMS IS LOW.
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. A LINGERING SHOWER POSSIBLE EARLY
ALONG THE S COAST WITH THE FRONT...OTHERWISE VFR BUT PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE NEAR THE S COAST.
SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CIGS.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR LATER THIS MORNING. A BRIEF SHOWER
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS MORNING. A WEAK SEABREEZE IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR LATER THIS MORNING. A BRIEF SHOWER
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MVFR / IFR ASSOC REMNANTS OF TS BILL. WIDESPREAD SHRA. POSSIBLE +RA
ALONG THE S-COAST. POTENTIAL VSBY IMPACTS. S-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO
20 KTS ASSOC WITH TS BILL BACKING NW WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
PUSHING REMNANTS OUT TO SEA.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
PERIODS OF -SHRA. LOW-END VFR. W/NW-WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TODAY...SW WINDS BECOMING LIGHT THEN LOCALLY EAST ACROSS E MA
WATERS AS WEAK SEABREEZES DEVELOP. WINDS REMAINING SW OVER S
COASTAL WATERS. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.
TONIGHT...LIGHT NE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. ANY EVENING SHOWERS
FOCUSED IN THE RI WATERS TO MVY/ACK AND SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
WATERS.
SATURDAY...WINDS TURNING SE WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT DEVELOPING.
SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
REMNANTS OF TS BILL. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS
ESP OVER THE S-WATERS. ANTICIPATING VISIBILITY IMPACTS. POSSIBLE
FOG. S-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ASSOC WITH TS BILL BACKING NW
WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE PUSHING REMNANTS OUT TO SEA. SEAS
BUILDING IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET ON THE S/SE-WATERS.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LIGHTER W/NW-WINDS. SEAS FALLING BELOW 5-FEET. PERIODS OF SHOWERS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...KJC/SIPPRELL
MARINE...KJC/SIPPRELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
143 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION
TOMORROW MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND...AS WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1040 PM EDT...A PROGRESSIVE AND DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER S-CNTRL ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC WITH THE CLOSED H500 CIRCULATION
OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC WILL BREAK DOWN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BRIEFLY
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. A COLD FRONT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
LATEST KENX AND REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF
HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. THERE HAVE BEEN A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER THANKS TO CLOUD-TO-CLOUD OR INTRA-CLOUD LTG
ACTIVITY OVER OUR AREA ACCORDING TO NATL LTG NETWORK DATA...BUT
ANY CLOUD TO GROUND STRIKES HAVE BEEN REMAINING WEST OF OUR AREA
OVER THE TUG HILL FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING.
RADAR TRENDS AND 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS BATCH OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE LAKE GEORGE
REGION...WITH MORE ACTIVITY SPREADING INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SARATOGA REGION REGION AS WELL...OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE
CONTINUED TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS OVER THIS AREA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO ONLY CALL THUNDER SLIGHT CHANCE
DUE TO SPORADIC AND SPARSE NATURE OF THE LTG DUE TO THE LIMITED
INSTABILITY IN PLACE. ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF A
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR...BUT HEAVY RAIN WILL BE SHORT LIVED IN ANY
ONE LOCATION...AND FLOODING WON/T BE A CONCERN.
FURTHER SOUTH...WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH MAINLY CHC POPS. THE 3KM
HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SPOTTY ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH THE
CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER...BUT THE MOST
CONCENTRATED SHOWERS/STORMS LOOKS TO REMAIN FURTHER NORTH.
LOWS TONIGHT WERE FAVORED TOWARDS THE WARMER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
WITH THE SLOW TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT. LOWS IN THE MID TO U50S
ARE LIKELY OVER THE MTNS...WITH MAINLY LOWER TO M60S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...THE CONSENSUS WITH
THE SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE IS A SLOWER TREND WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
SFC COLD FRONT...ITS ASSOCIATED DEWPT BOUNDARY...AND THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE THE SLOWEST...WITH THE GFS/ECMWF
A BIT FASTER. A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST
FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION/GLENS FALLS/SARATOGA REGION/SRN
VT SOUTH AND EAST IN THE MORNING.
THE LATER TIMING WILL ALLOW SLIGHTLY WARMER MAX TEMPS WITH THE
W/NW DOWNSLOPING WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY ALLOWING SOME
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING...ESPECIALLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MID
HUDSON VALLEY. THE SFC HIGH WILL BE QUICKLY BUILDING IN FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR IN THE
AFTERNOON FROM THE N/NW TO S/SE DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND WITH THE APPROACHING ANTICYCLONE.
IT WILL BE A BREEZY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE RELATIVELY STRONG SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS...AND BETTER MIXING FROM
ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO ISOLATED M80S FROM THE SRN
REACHES OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SRN
TACONICS IN THE PORTIONS OF LITCHFIELD CTY CT...MID AND U70S WILL
BE COMMON IN MANY OF THE OTHER VALLEY LOCATIONS AND OVER THE
HILLS...WITH M60S TO M70S OVER THE MTNS. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM
THE NW/N AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 MPH.
TOMORROW NIGHT...A CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS THAT BECOME LIGHT TO CALM...AS THE SFC HIGH
MOVES OVERHEARD. IT IS A VERY COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS. H850 TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE +7C TO +10C RANGE. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE U40S TO M50S FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION/MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST...AND MAINLY 40-45F
NORTH OF ALBANY WITH A FEW U30S OVER THE SRN DACKS.
SATURDAY...A NICE START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC
HIGH MOVING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUNNY/MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM
THE SOUTH AND WEST IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT OVER THE OH VALLEY
AND MID ATLANTIC SATES. THE REMNANT CIRCULATION FROM BILL WILL
ALSO APPROACH THE OH VALLEY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY POP UP LATE IN
THE DAY OVER THE CATSKILLS AND BERKSHIRES. OTHERWISE FAIR AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE MID AND U70S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND M60S TO L70S OVER
THE MTNS.
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH
THE WARM FRONT LIFTING N/NE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...AND A
SFC WAVE AND COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE TROUGH THAT WAS FORMERLY BILL LOOKS TO STAY SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THE INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND THETA-E ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS
TO INCREASE. THE SHOWALTER VALUES LOWER TO 0C TO -2C. THE PWATS
LOOKS TO INCREASE TO 1.25-1.75 INCHES. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS
ARE IN THE GRIDS WITH CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AND WILL MENTION IN THE HWO.
THE GREATEST THREAT LOOKS TO BE ON SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE RATHER ACTIVE...AS THE
REMNANTS OF TC BILL WILL BE PASSING BY THE SOUTH OF THE REGION ON
SUNDAY.
THE CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS
MANY OF THE 12Z GEFS MEMBERS...SHOWS THE REMNANT SFC LOW AND
HEAVIEST QPF ASSOCIATED WITH BILL MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION.
STILL...WITH PWAT VALUES AS HIGH AS 2-3 STD ABOVE NORMAL...ANY
SHOWER OR T-STORM OVER THE REGION WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SHOWERS
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...AS AN APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
WILL TEAM UP WITH THE REMNANT TC CIRCULATION TO ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/T-STORMS. T-STORM ACTIVITY DOES/T APPEAR TO BE TOO STRONG
DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY DUE TO PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND WARM
MID LEVEL TEMPS. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE HELD DOWN MAINLY INTO THE
70S THANKS TO THE PRECIP/CLOUDS.
ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS LOOKS TO BE ON
SUNDAY...THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT OR
MONDAY THANKS TO THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. TEMPS LOOK TO HOLD
IN THE 60S FOR SUN NIGHT...AND MID 70S TO LOW 80S FOR MONDAY...WITH
MORE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED AS THE BEST UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
STARTS TO MOVE AWAY.
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE
YET ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IMPACTS THE REGION FOR TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHC FOR THUNDER DURING TUESDAY
AFTN/EVE. TEMPS ON MON NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S...AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL PROBABLY BE IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR
80.
BEHIND THE STORM/S COLD FRONT...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL START
WORKING TO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SKIES WILL START TO CLEAR OUT TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOWS LATE ON TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. DRY WEATHER WITH
A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z...THEN VFR THEREAFTER.
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS.
RADARS INDICATED A LITTLE MORE ACTIVITY REGARDING SCATTERED
SHOWERS WORKING INTO THE TAF SITES. THERE WAS AN EARLIER LIGHTNING
STRIKE OR TWO ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF KGFL. AS OF
540Z...THERE HAD BEEN NONE IN THE BETTER PART OF AN HOUR.
EXPECT OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS TONIGHT DUE BUT PREVAILING LOW MVFR
(EXTRA FUEL REQUIRED) THROUGH THE MORNING PEAK AT ALL THE TAF
SITES. VISIBILITY WILL BE MAINLY VFR BUT OCCASIONAL DOWN TO MVFR
IN SHOWERS AND MIST.
THE WIND WHICH HAS BEEN MAINLY SOUTHERLY...WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO
THROUGH ABOUT 10Z...THEN SHIFT TO THE W/NW AND THEN EVENTUALLY
NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AFTER THE MORNING PEAK. THEY WILL
AVERAGE AROUND 10KTS...GUSTING UP TO 20KTS BY MIDDAY AT KPSF AND
KALB.
CLOUDS WILL LIFT BACK TO VFR AFTER 12Z...THEN EVENTUALLY BECOME
SCATTERED (EXCEPT AT KPOU WHERE A BKN CIG IS LIKELY MUCH OF THE
DAY BUT AGAIN AT 4500 KFT).
BY THIS EVENING...EXPECT A CLEAR SKY UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY AND
LIGHT WIND. THERE MIGHT BE SOME PATCHY FOG FORMING OVERNIGHT AND
WE WILL ADDRESS THAT POSSIBILITY MORE IN THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...AS WET AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RECOVER TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND DECREASE TO 25 TO 45 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE RH
VALUES RECOVER TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT SATURDAY MORNING.
THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 5-15 MPH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...AND WILL SHIFT TO THE W
TO NW AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 10 TO
20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH TOMORROW IN THE LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...BUT SOME RISES ARE POSSIBLE ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AS SOME WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
RETURNS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL RANGE FROM ONE TENTH TO A THIRD AN INCH WITH SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION.
WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY MONDAY...AS THE MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL ENTITY
BILL MAY IMPACT PARTS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE VARIABLE RIGHT NOW...BUT A WIDESPREAD HALF AN INCH AN INCH IS
LIKELY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
429 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND THEN STALL
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT AND THEN
MOVE EAST SATURDAY. THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL THEN MOVE BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATER ON SATURDAY. THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BILL WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH
ANOTHER SERIES OF FRONTS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A CDFNT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY AND HIGH PRES WILL
BUILD TO THE N AND SLOWLY MOVE SWD. THE CDFNT WILL STALL JUST TO
OUR S.
LTST STLT IMAGERY SHOWED AN AREA OF RAIN, WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER
MOVG ACRS SERN PA AND JUST MOVG INTO SRN NJ ERLY THIS MRNG. A
WEAKENING SMALLER AREA WAS MOVG ACRS DE AND MD. SOME ADDITIONAL
SHWRS WERE IMPACTING NWRN AREAS. THESE WERE ASSOCD WITH A S/WV MOVG
THRU. HRRR INDICATES THAT THINGS SHUD SETTLE DOWN LATER THIS MRNG
AS THIS PRECIP MOVES THRU.
THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT WITHIN THE MDLS WRT PRECIP CHCS TODAY.
WITH THE FRONT STALLING TO THE S, IT WOULD SEEM THAT IS WHERE THE
BEST CHCS WOULD BE. THE GFS AND WPC GUID IS ESSENTIALLY DRY. THEY
OTHER MDLS HAVE AT LEAST SOME CHC OF PRECIP SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA
DURG THE COURSE OF THE DAY. FOR NOW, WILL GO WITH A GENLY DRY FCST
AFTER THIS MRNG, BUT SOME PRECIP CAN NOT BE RULED OUT LATER IN THE
DAY. THE WIND SHUD BECOME MORE W TO NW WHICH WOULD ALSO FAVOR A
DRIER SOLN.
HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL MOVE EWD OVER NEW ENG TONIGHT AND A
DRY FCST IS ANTICIPATED. WIND WILL BECOME MORE NELY DUE TO THE
POSN OF THE HIGH. THERE IS BETTER MDL AGREEMENT ON THE TONIGHT
FCST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WE HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT EXTENDED PACKAGE.
WE DO NOT SEE MANY DRASTIC CHANGES FROM THE DAYTIME PACKAGE. A
MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE COUNTRY. A SUBTLE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN A WEAK RIDGE
BUILDS LATE. THE WAVY FRONT IN THE NEAR/SHORT TERM NEVER MOVES TOO
FAR AWAY. IT WILL MOVE BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE AREA KEEPING A
LARGELY UNSETTLED PATTERN.
SAT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. INCREASING
CLOUDS LATE. A CHC FOR SHOWERS OVER THE DELMARVA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.
SAT NIGHT THRU EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT...HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING POSSIBLE WITH THE REMNANTS OF FORMER TS BILL MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ABNORMALLY HIGH AND WITH
DECENT DYNAMICS AND A FRONT ACROSS THE AREA...ONE TO TWO INCHES OF
RAIN MAY OCCUR. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL...BUT ABOVE NORMAL FAR
SOUTH.
SUN NIGHT THRU MON...ANOTHER PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.
MON NIGHT THRU THU...UNSETTLED WITH CHCS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS MOSTLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL TUE...THEN NEAR NORMAL
WED/THU.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
CONDS RANGED FROM LIFR TO VFR ERLY THIS AM, WITH MOST
LOCATIONS SOMEWHERE IN THE IFR/MVFR RANGE. THERE WAS A SWATH OF
RAIN WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER MOVG ACRS S JERSEY AND ERN PA ATTM
AND THUNDER WAS EARLIER REPORTED AT KPHL AND KILG. EXPECT LWR CONDS
TO PREVAIL AT MOST SITES THRU THE MRNG HOURS BEFORE ALL SITES BECOME
VFR BY AFTN. VFR CONDS SHUD THEN PREVAIL THRU TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS TO THE N AND MOVES NE BY SAT MRNG.
WIND WILL GENLY BE S TO SW AND BECOME MORE W TO NW AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES AND WILL END UP MORE NELY TO E BY THE END OF THE TAF PD.
WIND SPEEDS WILL REACH AROUND 12 KTS DURG THE AFTN, BUT WILL
OTHERWISE BE LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU THE TAF PD.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA EARLY...MAINLY ILG, ACY, AND
MIV...OTHERWISE VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA...ESPECIALLY AT
PHL, PNE, TTN, ILG, AND RDG.
SUN...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN LOW CLOUDS, FOG, +SHRA...ESP LATE AM THRU
EARLY AFTN.
MON THRU TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ATTM.
&&
.MARINE...
NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THRU THE NEAR AND SHORT
TERM PDS.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS WITH A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW...
SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
SUN AND SUN NIGHT...A SERIES OF FRONTS AND THE REMNANTS OF TS BILL
WILL BE ACROSS THE WATERS. LOW END SCA GUSTS/SEAS POSSIBLE.
MON/TUE...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. SCT SHOWERS MON NIGHT/TUE.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...FRANCK/NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...FRANCK/NIERENBERG/O`HARA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
950 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...THE LATEST RAP SURFACE TO 500MB ANALYSES
SHOWING THAT THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THE LOW SURFACE/LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXES WERE OVER THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
THE SOUTH HALF AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND FOR THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND SHOULD DELAY THE
ONSET OF THE SEA BREEZE IN NORTH BREVARD AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES. THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GO A LITTLE HIGHER BEFORE THE SEA BREEZE
COMES ASHORE. THE EARLIER SEA BREEZE TO THE SOUTH WILL ALLOW EARLIER
SHOWER AND STORM FORMATION. TD BILL MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS MISSOURI
AND KENTUCKY TODAY WILL KEEP THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXES TO THE SOUTH
JUST ABOUT WHERE THEY ARE PRESENTLY BEING ANALYZED BY THE RAP MODEL.
THE MORNING UPDATE WILL LOOK AT DELAYING THE ONSET OF THE AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZES NORTH BREVARD AND VOLUSIA. THE RAP STEERING WINDS GO
FROM THE WEST IN THE NORTHERN AREAS TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST FORT
PIERCE SOUTH. DAYTONA MAY SEE STORMS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AS
THE SEA BREEZE STRUGGLES TO PUSH INLAND. WILL HAVE TO LOOK AT THE
AFTERNOON WEATHER GRIDS AS WELL.
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE HIGHER TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE INLAND MOVING EAST COAST SEA BREEZE INTO THE
AFT. GREATEST COVERAGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH ANY
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS LATER IN THE DAY. TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS WILL
OCCUR WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. VFR EXPECTED
ALONG THE COAST MELBOURNE SOUTH ONCE THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95.
.MARINE... CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...THE NOAA BUOYS/CMAN SITES WERE
RECORDING SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND 1 TO 2 FOOT
SEAS. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS. SHOULD SEE AN EARLIER SEA BREEZE COMPONENT TO THE
WIND OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS THEN LATE AFTERNOON CAPE CANAVERAL
NORTH. BOATERS SHOULD KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKIES...ESPECIALLY CAPE
CANAVERAL NORTH...FOR WEST TO EAST MOVING STORMS LATER TODAY.
PREVIOUS AFD
TODAY/TONIGHT...RELATIVELY LIGHT LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL EXIST OVER THE
AREA WITH ATL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND WEAK HIGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF.
THIS WILL ALLOW A SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP ALONG BOTH COASTS BY EARLY
AFT...PUSHING INLAND THROUGH LATE DAY. OVERALL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE WITH PW VALUES UP TO 1.9-2.0" WHICH WILL LEAD TO A GREATER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST COVERAGE
WILL EXIST WITH BOUNDARY COLLISIONS INLAND LATER IN THE DAY AND
TOWARD SUNSET...BUT EVEN COASTAL AREAS MAY SEE SOME RAIN ESPECIALLY
AS THE SEA BREEZE INITIALLY FORMS. A FEW INLAND STRONG STORMS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING...STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN THREATS.
EVEN WITH THE EXPECTED HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...THERE
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING FOR HIGHS TO AGAIN REACH THE
LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST AND MID 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR. HEAT INDEX
VALUES UP TO 100-105 ARE AGAIN EXPECTED THIS AFT BEFORE CONVECTION
AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER BRING SOME RELIEF TO THE HOTTER TEMPS
LATER IN THE DAY.
CONVECTION WILL LINGER...MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...INTO THE
EVENING WITH RAIN CHANCES FORECAST TO END BY MIDNIGHT. DEBRIS CLOUD
COVER WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.
SAT...AS THE REMNANTS OF BILL MOVE THROUGH THE TN VALLEY ON
SATURDAY THE ATLC SFC RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL TO S FL. 00Z
NAM IS INDICATING A BIT MORE WESTERLY LOW LVL FLOW THAN THE GFS AS
THE SFC RIDGE SLIPS SLOWLY SOUTH. BOTH MODELS INDICATE MORE THAN
ADEQUATE MOISTURE LVLS FROM 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES IN THE MORNING WHICH
LEAD TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST PREVALENT
ACROSS THE INTERIOR IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AS THE EAST AND WEST COAST
SEA BREEZES PUSH INTO THE INTERIOR. WILL TAPER POPS FROM 20 PCT
IMMEDIATE TREASURE COAST TO 50 PCT ACROSS THE NRN INTERIOR INCLUDING
METRO ORLANDO WHERE THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONG LATE AFTERNOON
STORMS. HIGHS AROUND 90/LWR 90S COASTAL TO MID 90S FOR THE INTERIOR.
SAT NIGHT....SCATTERED EVENING CONVECTION EXPECTED ALONG THE I-4
CORRIDOR INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING. LOWS IN THE 70S.
SUNDAY...THE REMNANTS OF BILL WILL HAVE PASSED OFFSHORE FROM THE MID
ATLC IN THE AFTERNOON WITH ATLC RIDGE ACROSS SRN COUNTIES. NAM STILL
INDICATES THE SFC RIDGE WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH WITH MORE PREVALENT
LOW LVL WESTERLY FLOW THAN THE GFS. FOR NOW WILL TREND TWD THE GFS
WITH LOWER POPS S CSTL WHERE THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL PUSH
INLAND. SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DAY WITH GOOD BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
ACROSS THE NRN INTERIOR AS SEA BREEZES MOVE INLAND. WILL FCST 40-50
PCT FROM OSCEOLA COUNTY INTO THE NRN INTERIOR INCLUDING METRO
ORLANDO. HIGHS AGAIN IN THE LWR 90S CSTL TO MID 90S INTERIOR.
MON-FRI...IT APPEARS THE MID LVL RIDGE WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF
ACROSS THE SE STATES FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK RETURNING MID
LAYER FLOW FROM THE EAST WITH THE ATLC RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL FL INTO THE GULF. LOWEST RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
TREASURE COAST BEACHES WITH HIGHER AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ACROSS THE NRN INTERIOR EACH AFTERNOON. OVERALL INFLUENCE FROM THE
MID LVL RIDGE TO THE NORTH SHOULD WILL REDUCE RAIN CHANCES TO NEAR
20 PCT ALONG CSTL SECTIONS TO AROUND 30 PCT ACROSS THE NRN INTERIOR.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE AROUND 90/LOWER 90S ALONG THE COAST
AND 93-95 ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE INLAND MOVING EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
INTO THE AFT. GREATEST COVERAGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH
ANY BOUNDARY COLLISIONS LATER IN THE DAY. TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS WILL
OCCUR WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...ATLC RIDGE JUST EAST OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN A
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST NEAR THE COAST AS SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS
AND MOVES INLAND THIS AFT. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 1-3 FEET.
SAT-SUN...WINDS AROUND THE ATLC RIDGE THIS WEEKEND WILL BE SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHEASTERLY ALONG THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON. WINDS MAINLY 5-10
KNOTS DURING DAYTIME PERIODS...STRONGER NEAR NEARSHORE WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. EXPECT A NOCTURNAL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS
EACH NIGHT. SEAS NEAR 2 FT AT THE COAST AND 2-3 FT OFFSHORE. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS MAINLY NORTH
OF CAPE CANAVERAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
MON-TUE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AROUND
THE ATLC RIDGE WITH A SE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION NEAR SHORE EACH
AFTERNOON. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 2-3 FT WITH MOST AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSING INLAND AWAY FROM THE NEAR SHORE WATERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 93 74 91 75 / 30 20 30 30
MCO 95 75 93 74 / 50 40 50 30
MLB 91 74 90 75 / 20 10 30 20
VRB 91 75 91 74 / 20 10 20 10
LEE 95 76 94 77 / 50 40 50 30
SFB 95 76 94 76 / 50 40 50 30
ORL 95 76 93 76 / 50 40 50 30
FPR 90 72 91 72 / 20 10 20 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
IMPACT WX/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
FORECASTS...WIMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1032 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...
329 PM CDT
THROUGH TONIGHT...
STILL LINGERING UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING...WITH AN OVERALL TREND TOWARD A LOWER
THREAT FOR THE THE NORTHEAST 1/2 TO 2/3 OF THE CWA. AS NOTED
EARLIER...CLOUD COVER HAS OVERALL LIMITED DESTABILIZATION PROCESS
EVEN IN PRESENCE OF GRADUALLY MOISTENING DEWPOINTS. ALSO A VERY
STOUT WARM NOSE AT BASE OF EML ADVECTING WESTWARD CENTERED FROM
750-850 MB NOTED ON 18Z DVN SOUNDING WILL RESULT IN CAPPING/CINH
AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ITS APPEARS THAT
LINGERING CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST IA AND NORTHWEST
IL ON NOSE OF SPEED MAX SEEN ON W/V IMAGERY COULD BE MAIN FOCUS
FOR WHAT OCCURS THIS EVENING...ONCE STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES AND
WEAKENS THE CAP. IT STILL LOOKS THAT STRONGEST INSTABILITY AXIS
WITH MLCAPE UP TO 1K TO 2K J/KG WILL RESIDE NEAR OR JUST WEST OF
THE FAR WEST AND SOUTHWEST CWA. MORE ROBUST CONVECTION LIKELY WILL
RIDE THIS NORTH- NORTHWEST TO SOUTH- SOUTHEAST AXIS THIS EVENING.
THEREFORE...IN PRESENCE OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KT...HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS FAVORED TO BE WEST OF DIXON TO
OTTAWA TO PAXTON LINE...FAIRLY SIMILAR TO RECENT RUNS OF HRRR.
UPSCALE GROWTH INTO MCS MAY BE OCCURRING BY TIME STORMS
ARRIVE...SO PRIMARY THREATS FROM ANY SEVERE STORMS LOOK TO BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
FOR REST OF AREA...IT APPEARS BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS
WILL STILL PRESS SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AS DEPICTED ON
RECENT HRRR RUNS...BUT WITH MUCH LOWER CHANCE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING POTENTIAL MAY BE
LIMITED BUT ALSO NON-ZERO FOR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA...SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS
EVENING. COULD END UP BEING MORE OF A SHOWER/EMBEDDED THUNDER
SCENARIO. FINALLY...ANY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH HIGH PWAT IN 1.7 TO 1.8 INCH RANGE SAGGING
SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THUS GIVEN RECENT HEAVY RAINS...WILL
ALSO NEED TO MONITOR FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL THIS EVENING EVEN IN
FASTER STORM MOTIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S...WITH 60S DEWPOINTS YIELDING MUGGY CONDITIONS.
RC
&&
.LONG TERM...
329 PM CDT
SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES FOR THE PERIOD REMAIN WITH
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING NEXT WEEK.
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL LIKELY LINGERING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA...WHERE UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS
WILL STILL LIKELY RESIDE. WHILE CONVECTION FROM THE OVERNIGHT WILL
HAVE LIKELY EXITED THE AREA BY THE MORNING...THERE APPEARS TO BE A
CHANCE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST INDIANA MAINLY SOUTH OF PONTIAC ILLINOIS TO
MOROCCO INDIANA LINE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THESE LOCATIONS ARE
INDICATING INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH LITTLE TO NO CIN DURING THE
MORNING AND ALTHOUGH THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
LOW...THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A SMALL WINDOW BEFORE THE AXIS OF BEST
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE CWA BY MIDDAY.
THE AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE DRY WITH CLEARING SKIES...AND WITH
TEMPERATURES INCREASING INTO THE 80S. WINDS NEAR THE LAKE WILL BEGIN
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AND WITH A SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST/EAST
LIKELY BY MIDDAY...LIMITING TEMPS TO THE 70S.
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE QUIET SUNDAY EVENING AND THROUGH MUCH OF
SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...ATTENTION TURNS BACK WEST TOWARDS INCREASING
MID LEVEL ENERGY AND A STRENGTHENING LLJ. THESE FEATURES WILL ALLOW
FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WELL WEST OF THE CWA ACROSS IOWA
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. SOME OF THIS DEVELOPMENT COULD POSSIBLY REACH
THE FAR WESTERN CWA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND HAVE
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING DURING THIS TIME. THE BETTER
CHANCES WILL COME MONDAY MORNING WHEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE. VEERING LLJ...APPROACHING MID LEVEL
SUPPORT...AND GOOD MOIST/TEMP ADVECTION SHOULD PROVIDE AMPLE SUPPORT
FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WITH THIS DECENT
FORCING IN PLACE AND WHILE MODERATE/STRONG INSTABILITY ALOFT QUICKLY
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE CWA...COULD ALLOW FOR SOME OF THESE STORMS TO
BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE LIKELY HAZARD WOULD BE FOR LARGE
HAIL...BEFORE THIS DEVELOPMENT LIFTS NORTH OF THE CWA BY MIDDAY.
GUIDANCE DOES VARY TO HOW MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL EVOLVE WITH REGARD
TO ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT IT WOULD APPEAR THAT
THERE WILL BE A DRY WINDOW DURING THIS TIME. PERSISTING WARM/MOIST
PUSH RIDING ALONG STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE OBSERVED
MONDAY AND IF THE CLOUDS CAN DEPART...TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WILL BE LIKELY.
ANOTHER DECENT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ARRIVING MONDAY NIGHT WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THEM TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE. HAVE NOT
INCREASE POPS DURING THIS TIME TOO MUCH OWING TO SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH COVERAGE AND EXACT TIMING. HOWEVER...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA...DEVELOPMENT DEFINITELY APPEARS
POSSIBLE. THIS FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE CWA BY TUESDAY BUT
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT IT COULD LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
DURING THIS TIME. IF IT DOES...THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL CHANCES OVER
THE SOUTHERN CWA.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...
* SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ENDING LATE THIS EVENING.
* WIND DIRECTIONS THRU SUNDAY MORNING.
* MVFR VIS/CIGS OVERNIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.
* GUSTY NORTHWEST/WEST WINDS SUNDAY.
* POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE/NORTHEAST WIND SHIFT LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/
EARLY EVENING. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 03Z...
STILL LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDER BUT THIS WILL BE ENDING OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS IT
SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTHEAST. WINDS HAVE BECOME VARIABLE BUT HAVE SOME
EASTERLY COMPONENT. THESE WILL LIKELY REMAIN UNDER 10KTS OVERNIGHT
AS THEY TURN BACK NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. CMS
PREVIOUS 00Z DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL IL EARLY THIS EVENING. WHILE THESE STORMS WEAKEN AS THEY
MOVE EAST...THEY ARE SLOWLY MOVING FURTHER EAST AND EVENTUALLY...
EXPECT THUNDER TO REACH THE CHICAGO AREA TERMINALS BUT CONFIDENCE
REGARDING TIMING AND COVERAGE IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.
TWEAKED TIMING WITH THE 00Z TAFS BUT EXPECT ADDITIONAL REFINEMENTS
WILL BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AHEAD OF THE STORMS...LIGHT
RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. HOW LONG THIS ACTIVITY
PERSISTS INTO THE LATE EVENING IS ALSO UNCERTAIN AS SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ACTIVITY COULD CONTINUE THRU 05Z-06Z.
OUTFLOW FROM THESE SHOWERS/STORMS HAS CAUSED THE WIND FIELD TO
BECOME QUITE DISTURBED. GENERALLY WESTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY
BECOME VARIABLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...POSSIBLY SHIFTING LIGHT
EASTERLY THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD TURN BACK NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT
AND THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING...TURNING MORE WESTERLY
BY THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT AS THESE WINDS
BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THAT A LAKE BREEZE MAY
FORM AND INCLUDED A POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE EARLY SUNDAY EVENING WITH
THE 30 HOUR ORD TAF.
WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST LOW LEVELS...APPEARS MVFR CIGS AND
VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY DIPPING TO IFR IN SOME
LOCATIONS. ANY LOWER CIGS OR FOG THAT DEVELOP SHOULD QUICKLY LIFT
AND IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...
* HIGH FOR SHRA/TSRA ENDING LATE THIS EVENING.
* LOW FOR WIND DIRECTIONS OVERNIGHT...MEDIUM FOR WINDS OVERNIGHT/
SUNDAY.
* HIGH FOR MVFR VIS/CIGS OVERNIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...MEDIUM FOR
TIMING. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* MONDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. STRONG/GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* TUESDAY...DRY/VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. EASTERLY WINDS.
* FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. NORTHEAST WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
408 PM CDT
THERE WAS A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE...POSSIBLY UP TO 33 KT FOR A
TIME. HOWEVER...WINDS HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED BACK TO THE 10 TO 15
KT RANGE IN THE NEAR TERM. THESE SPEEDS WITH GENERALLY SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND INTO A PORTION OF THE
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE A TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A SMALL WINDOW OF 10 TO 20 KT WINDS WITH
THIS WIND SHIFT...THE MORE PREVAILING SPEEDS WILL BE IN THE 10 TO
15 KT RANGE. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN SUNDAY MORNING BUT
DIMINISH AND THEN LIKELY BECOME MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT BACK MORE
SOUTHERLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND THEN INCREASE DURING THIS
TIME. THIS INCREASE WILL ESPECIALLY OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING...WHEN SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 30 KT ARE APPEARING
LIKELY. THIS WILL PERSIST UNTIL ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH WINDS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST
WHILE DIMINISHING.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
857 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 857 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING INTO WEST
CENTRAL IL FROM THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWING AROUND 4000
J/KG MLCAPE VALUES ALONG/SOUTH OF THE LINE WITH 30-50 KTS 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF IL. AS A RESULT...ORGANIZED
SEVERE CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING THROUGH
WEST CENTRAL IL AND A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM.
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS IN THIS AREA INCLUDE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO
60 MPH OR GREATER...LARGE HAIL...AND THE THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD EAST AND SOUTH
THROUGH CENTRAL/SE IL OVERNIGHT WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
SLOWLY DIMINISHING AND LARGELY SINKING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD SOUTH
CENTRAL IL TOWARD POCKET OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY. HAVE SENT
UPDATES TO FORECASTS FOR SHORT-TERM TRENDS IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY LARGELY USING HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON RECENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL DEFINED BY 1006 MB SURFACE LOW
OVER SOUTHERN OHIO WITH 580 DM 500 MB LOW WILL TRACK INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY DAWN SUNDAY. BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS 1.5-3K FT
OVER EASTERN HALF OF CWA WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
A CAPPED ATMOSPHERE IS KEEPING CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL DRY SO FAR
TODAY. HOWEVER, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN IA AND
TRACKING EAST INTO NW IL AND SW WI MAINLY NORTH OF I-80 WILL EVOLVE
INTO A LARGER MCS SYSTEM THAT WILL DROP SE TOWARD THE IL RIVER LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL IL DURING
THIS EVENING, REACHING SOUTHEAST IL OVERNIGHT WHERE CONVECTION
CHANCES LOWER TO 30% FROM I-70 SOUTH. SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS AS FAR SE AS A TAYLORVILLE TO DANVILLE LINE TONIGHT WHILE
ENHANCED RISK WAS EXPANDED SE TO NEAR THE IL RIVER. AREAS WEST OF IL
RIVER HAVE 30% RISK OF LARGE HAIL (2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER) AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH A 5% RISK OF TORNADOES. VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING WITH
CAPES RISING TO 2500-4500 J/KG IN WESTERN COUNTIES (EVEN NEAR 5000
J/KG BY 00Z/7 PM IN SW IA/NE MO AND FAR WEST CENTRAL IL AROUND
QUINCY. MEANWHILE BULK SHEAR IS 30-40 KTS OVER NORTHERN CWA MAINLY
FROM I-72 NORTH. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5-1.8 INCHES OVER
IA THIS AFTERNOON TO SHIFT INTO CENTRAL IL THIS EVENING AND COULD
CAUSE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WITH THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. MUGGY LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S OVER
CENTRAL/SE IL WITH UPPER 60S FAR NW BY GALESBURG.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED OVER THE AREA
TOMORROW AND THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. COULD BE SOME LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
OVERNIGHT MCS THAT MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER...BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR
SOUTH WILL THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GET BY MORNING. FORCING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR MORE STORMS AND AGREE
WITH SPC THAT A SLIGHT RISK IS WARRANTED OVER PARTS OF THE CWA
TOMORROW THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL THEN LIFT
NORTHWARD A LITTLE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...SO PCPN
CHANCES WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD SOME. HOWEVER...ALL MODELS FORECASTING
STORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AND THIS WILL KEEP THE FRONT
FROM GOING TOO FAR NORTH...AND WILL LIKELY BE OVER OR NEAR THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY. THEREFORE...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. THERE WILL BE SOME BREAKS IN THE
PCPN...BUT TIMING OF WHEN THESE WILL BE THIS FAR OUT IS TOO
UNCERTAIN. SO WILL JUST KEEP POPS THE WHOLE TIME AND THEN MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS AS THE EVENTS GET CLOSER.
TEMPS WILL BE WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE WARMEST DAYS BEING
MON THROUGH WED. A RELATIVELY STRONGER FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH
LATE IN THE WEEK AND THIS SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOR FRI
AND SAT. GUIDANCE NUMBERS LOOK OK BUT WENT LITTLE WARMER IN THE
EXTENDED THAN MEX GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
THE LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS EASTERN IOWA IS
EVOLVING INTO A SQUALL LINE A LITTLE SOONER THAN EARLIER
INDICATIONS. THERE REMAINS SOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS, BUT THE LINE OF
STORMS SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND MOMENTUM TO
OVERCOME SOME OF THAT CIN. STORM STRENGTH MAY WEAKEN THE FARTHER
THE LINE PROGRESSES INTO ILLINOIS, ALLOWING THE LINE TO SLOW DOWN
AND STALL IN A WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION, DROPPING VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER SMALLER AREAS. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT MAY
TRANSITION FROM WIND AND HAIL TO FLASH FLOODING BY MIDNIGHT OR
SHORTLY AFTER. PIA IS STILL UNDER THE GUN FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
OF 45-50KT AS THE LINE REACHES THEM BETWEEN 03Z-05Z/10PM-
MIDNIGHT. WILL KEEP A TEMPO FOR THEM AND BMI AS THE STORM TRACK
HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF REACHING THAT FAR E-SE. SPI, DEC, AND CMI
WILL LIKELY SEE THE LATER STAGES OF THE COMPLEX ARRIVE AFTER
MIDNIGHT, POSSIBLY AS LAST AS 3AM/08Z FOR CMI. HAVE SLOWED DOWN
THE TIMING OF STORM ARRIVAL FOR ALL TAFS, AND INCREASED PEAK GUSTS
IN THE TEMPO TO 45KT FOR PIA AND BMI. WE KEPT ONLY VCTS FOR THE
OTHER TERMINAL SITES UNTIL THE EVOLUTION OF THE LINE BECOMES MORE
APPARENT LATER THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE LINE OF
STORMS, WITH SPEEDS OF 12-18KT. WINDS WILL THEN TRANSITION TO
WEST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ONTON
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...AUTEN
AVIATION...SHIMON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
653 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
547 PM CDT
SHORTWAVE/SPEED MAX NOTED ON W/V MOVING FROM EASTERN IA INTO
NORTHWEST IL WEAKENED CAPPING ENOUGH OVER OUR AREA FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD EASTWARD. EARLIER SEVERE WARNED STORM
INITIALLY SHOWED A GOOD WIND SIGNATURE BUT QUICKLY WEAKENED AND IT
APPEARS SEVERE THREAT FOR NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE FAIRLY MINIMAL
WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST CWA AND MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT. THIS IS DUE TO STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THIS AREA
AND PWAT VALUES INCREASING TO UPWARDS OF 1.5 INCHES ACCORDING TO
LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS.
MAIN SEVERE THREAT THIS EVENING WILL BE TIED TO EVOLUTION OF
BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN IOWA THAT MAY PASS NEAR
OR JUST SOUTHWEST OF FAR WEST AND SOUTHWEST CWA. MAIN THREAT BY
THIS TIME/8-10 PM CDT/WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AND ALSO SEVERE
HAIL.
RC
&&
.SHORT TERM...
329 PM CDT
THROUGH TONIGHT...
STILL LINGERING UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING...WITH AN OVERALL TREND TOWARD A LOWER
THREAT FOR THE THE NORTHEAST 1/2 TO 2/3 OF THE CWA. AS NOTED
EARLIER...CLOUD COVER HAS OVERALL LIMITED DESTABILIZATION PROCESS
EVEN IN PRESENCE OF GRADUALLY MOISTENING DEWPOINTS. ALSO A VERY
STOUT WARM NOSE AT BASE OF EML ADVECTING WESTWARD CENTERED FROM
750-850 MB NOTED ON 18Z DVN SOUNDING WILL RESULT IN CAPPING/CINH
AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ITS APPEARS THAT
LINGERING CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST IA AND NORTHWEST
IL ON NOSE OF SPEED MAX SEEN ON W/V IMAGERY COULD BE MAIN FOCUS
FOR WHAT OCCURS THIS EVENING...ONCE STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES AND
WEAKENS THE CAP. IT STILL LOOKS THAT STRONGEST INSTABILITY AXIS
WITH MLCAPE UP TO 1K TO 2K J/KG WILL RESIDE NEAR OR JUST WEST OF
THE FAR WEST AND SOUTHWEST CWA. MORE ROBUST CONVECTION LIKELY WILL
RIDE THIS NORTH- NORTHWEST TO SOUTH- SOUTHEAST AXIS THIS EVENING.
THEREFORE...IN PRESENCE OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KT...HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS FAVORED TO BE WEST OF DIXON TO
OTTAWA TO PAXTON LINE...FAIRLY SIMILAR TO RECENT RUNS OF HRRR.
UPSCALE GROWTH INTO MCS MAY BE OCCURRING BY TIME STORMS
ARRIVE...SO PRIMARY THREATS FROM ANY SEVERE STORMS LOOK TO BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
FOR REST OF AREA...IT APPEARS BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS
WILL STILL PRESS SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AS DEPICTED ON
RECENT HRRR RUNS...BUT WITH MUCH LOWER CHANCE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING POTENTIAL MAY BE
LIMITED BUT ALSO NON-ZERO FOR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA...SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS
EVENING. COULD END UP BEING MORE OF A SHOWER/EMBEDDED THUNDER
SCENARIO. FINALLY...ANY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH HIGH PWAT IN 1.7 TO 1.8 INCH RANGE SAGGING
SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THUS GIVEN RECENT HEAVY RAINS...WILL
ALSO NEED TO MONITOR FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL THIS EVENING EVEN IN
FASTER STORM MOTIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S...WITH 60S DEWPOINTS YIELDING MUGGY CONDITIONS.
RC
&&
.LONG TERM...
329 PM CDT
SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES FOR THE PERIOD REMAIN WITH
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING NEXT WEEK.
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL LIKELY LINGERING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA...WHERE UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS
WILL STILL LIKELY RESIDE. WHILE CONVECTION FROM THE OVERNIGHT WILL
HAVE LIKELY EXITED THE AREA BY THE MORNING...THERE APPEARS TO BE A
CHANCE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST INDIANA MAINLY SOUTH OF PONTIAC ILLINOIS TO
MOROCCO INDIANA LINE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THESE LOCATIONS ARE
INDICATING INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH LITTLE TO NO CIN DURING THE
MORNING AND ALTHOUGH THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
LOW...THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A SMALL WINDOW BEFORE THE AXIS OF BEST
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE CWA BY MIDDAY.
THE AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE DRY WITH CLEARING SKIES...AND WITH
TEMPERATURES INCREASING INTO THE 80S. WINDS NEAR THE LAKE WILL BEGIN
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AND WITH A SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST/EAST
LIKELY BY MIDDAY...LIMITING TEMPS TO THE 70S.
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE QUIET SUNDAY EVENING AND THROUGH MUCH OF
SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...ATTENTION TURNS BACK WEST TOWARDS INCREASING
MID LEVEL ENERGY AND A STRENGTHENING LLJ. THESE FEATURES WILL ALLOW
FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WELL WEST OF THE CWA ACROSS IOWA
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. SOME OF THIS DEVELOPMENT COULD POSSIBLY REACH
THE FAR WESTERN CWA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND HAVE
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING DURING THIS TIME. THE BETTER
CHANCES WILL COME MONDAY MORNING WHEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE. VEERING LLJ...APPROACHING MID LEVEL
SUPPORT...AND GOOD MOIST/TEMP ADVECTION SHOULD PROVIDE AMPLE SUPPORT
FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WITH THIS DECENT
FORCING IN PLACE AND WHILE MODERATE/STRONG INSTABILITY ALOFT QUICKLY
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE CWA...COULD ALLOW FOR SOME OF THESE STORMS TO
BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE LIKELY HAZARD WOULD BE FOR LARGE
HAIL...BEFORE THIS DEVELOPMENT LIFTS NORTH OF THE CWA BY MIDDAY.
GUIDANCE DOES VARY TO HOW MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL EVOLVE WITH REGARD
TO ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT IT WOULD APPEAR THAT
THERE WILL BE A DRY WINDOW DURING THIS TIME. PERSISTING WARM/MOIST
PUSH RIDING ALONG STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE OBSERVED
MONDAY AND IF THE CLOUDS CAN DEPART...TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WILL BE LIKELY.
ANOTHER DECENT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ARRIVING MONDAY NIGHT WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THEM TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE. HAVE NOT
INCREASE POPS DURING THIS TIME TOO MUCH OWING TO SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH COVERAGE AND EXACT TIMING. HOWEVER...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA...DEVELOPMENT DEFINITELY APPEARS
POSSIBLE. THIS FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE CWA BY TUESDAY BUT
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT IT COULD LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
DURING THIS TIME. IF IT DOES...THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL CHANCES OVER
THE SOUTHERN CWA.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...
* SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA THIS EVENING.
* WIND DIRECTIONS...POSSIBLY EASTERLY...THIS EVENING.
* MVFR VIS/CIGS OVERNIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.
* GUSTY NORTHWEST/WEST WINDS SUNDAY.
* POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE/NORTHEAST WIND SHIFT LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/
EARLY EVENING. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL IL EARLY THIS EVENING. WHILE THESE STORMS WEAKEN AS THEY
MOVE EAST...THEY ARE SLOWLY MOVING FURTHER EAST AND EVENTUALLY...
EXPECT THUNDER TO REACH THE CHICAGO AREA TERMINALS BUT CONFIDENCE
REGARDING TIMING AND COVERAGE IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.
TWEAKED TIMING WITH THE 00Z TAFS BUT EXPECT ADDITIONAL REFINEMENTS
WILL BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AHEAD OF THE STORMS...LIGHT
RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. HOW LONG THIS ACTIVITY
PERSISTS INTO THE LATE EVENING IS ALSO UNCERTAIN AS SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ACTIVITY COULD CONTINUE THRU 05Z-06Z.
OUTFLOW FROM THESE SHOWERS/STORMS HAS CAUSED THE WIND FIELD TO
BECOME QUITE DISTURBED. GENERALLY WESTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY
BECOME VARIABLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...POSSIBLY SHIFTING LIGHT
EASTERLY THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD TURN BACK NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT
AND THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING...TURNING MORE WESTERLY
BY THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT AS THESE WINDS
BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THAT A LAKE BREEZE MAY
FORM AND INCLUDED A POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE EARLY SUNDAY EVENING WITH
THE 30 HOUR ORD TAF.
WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST LOW LEVELS...APPEARS MVFR CIGS AND
VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY DIPPING TO IFR IN SOME
LOCATIONS. ANY LOWER CIGS OR FOG THAT DEVELOP SHOULD QUICKLY LIFT
AND IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...
* HIGH FOR SHRA/TSRA THIS EVENING...MEDIUM FOR TIMING/COVERAGE.
* LOW FOR WIND DIRECTIONS THIS EVENING...MEDIUM FOR WINDS
OVERNIGHT/SUNDAY.
* HIGH FOR MVFR VIS/CIGS OVERNIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...MEDIUM FOR
TIMING. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* MONDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. STRONG/GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* TUESDAY...DRY/VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. EASTERLY WINDS.
* FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. NORTHEAST WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
408 PM CDT
THERE WAS A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE...POSSIBLY UP TO 33 KT FOR A
TIME. HOWEVER...WINDS HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED BACK TO THE 10 TO 15
KT RANGE IN THE NEAR TERM. THESE SPEEDS WITH GENERALLY SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND INTO A PORTION OF THE
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE A TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A SMALL WINDOW OF 10 TO 20 KT WINDS WITH
THIS WIND SHIFT...THE MORE PREVAILING SPEEDS WILL BE IN THE 10 TO
15 KT RANGE. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN SUNDAY MORNING BUT
DIMINISH AND THEN LIKELY BECOME MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT BACK MORE
SOUTHERLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND THEN INCREASE DURING THIS
TIME. THIS INCREASE WILL ESPECIALLY OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING...WHEN SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 30 KT ARE APPEARING
LIKELY. THIS WILL PERSIST UNTIL ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH WINDS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST
WHILE DIMINISHING.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
547 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
547 PM CDT
SHORTWAVE/SPEED MAX NOTED ON W/V MOVING FROM EASTERN IA INTO
NORTHWEST IL WEAKENED CAPPING ENOUGH OVER OUR AREA FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD EASTWARD. EARLIER SEVERE WARNED STORM
INITIALLY SHOWED A GOOD WIND SIGNATURE BUT QUICKLY WEAKENED AND IT
APPEARS SEVERE THREAT FOR NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE FAIRLY MINIMAL
WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST CWA AND MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT. THIS IS DUE TO STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THIS AREA
AND PWAT VALUES INCREASING TO UPWARDS OF 1.5 INCHES ACCORDING TO
LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS.
MAIN SEVERE THREAT THIS EVENING WILL BE TIED TO EVOLUTION OF
BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN IOWA THAT MAY PASS NEAR
OR JUST SOUTHWEST OF FAR WEST AND SOUTHWEST CWA. MAIN THREAT BY
THIS TIME/8-10 PM CDT/WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AND ALSO SEVERE
HAIL.
RC
&&
.SHORT TERM...
329 PM CDT
THROUGH TONIGHT...
STILL LINGERING UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING...WITH AN OVERALL TREND TOWARD A LOWER
THREAT FOR THE THE NORTHEAST 1/2 TO 2/3 OF THE CWA. AS NOTED
EARLIER...CLOUD COVER HAS OVERALL LIMITED DESTABILIZATION PROCESS
EVEN IN PRESENCE OF GRADUALLY MOISTENING DEWPOINTS. ALSO A VERY
STOUT WARM NOSE AT BASE OF EML ADVECTING WESTWARD CENTERED FROM
750-850 MB NOTED ON 18Z DVN SOUNDING WILL RESULT IN CAPPING/CINH
AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ITS APPEARS THAT
LINGERING CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST IA AND NORTHWEST
IL ON NOSE OF SPEED MAX SEEN ON W/V IMAGERY COULD BE MAIN FOCUS
FOR WHAT OCCURS THIS EVENING...ONCE STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES AND
WEAKENS THE CAP. IT STILL LOOKS THAT STRONGEST INSTABILITY AXIS
WITH MLCAPE UP TO 1K TO 2K J/KG WILL RESIDE NEAR OR JUST WEST OF
THE FAR WEST AND SOUTHWEST CWA. MORE ROBUST CONVECTION LIKELY WILL
RIDE THIS NORTH- NORTHWEST TO SOUTH- SOUTHEAST AXIS THIS EVENING.
THEREFORE...IN PRESENCE OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KT...HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS FAVORED TO BE WEST OF DIXON TO
OTTAWA TO PAXTON LINE...FAIRLY SIMILAR TO RECENT RUNS OF HRRR.
UPSCALE GROWTH INTO MCS MAY BE OCCURRING BY TIME STORMS
ARRIVE...SO PRIMARY THREATS FROM ANY SEVERE STORMS LOOK TO BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
FOR REST OF AREA...IT APPEARS BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS
WILL STILL PRESS SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AS DEPICTED ON
RECENT HRRR RUNS...BUT WITH MUCH LOWER CHANCE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING POTENTIAL MAY BE
LIMITED BUT ALSO NON-ZERO FOR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA...SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS
EVENING. COULD END UP BEING MORE OF A SHOWER/EMBEDDED THUNDER
SCENARIO. FINALLY...ANY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH HIGH PWAT IN 1.7 TO 1.8 INCH RANGE SAGGING
SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THUS GIVEN RECENT HEAVY RAINS...WILL
ALSO NEED TO MONITOR FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL THIS EVENING EVEN IN
FASTER STORM MOTIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S...WITH 60S DEWPOINTS YIELDING MUGGY CONDITIONS.
RC
&&
.LONG TERM...
329 PM CDT
SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES FOR THE PERIOD REMAIN WITH
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING NEXT WEEK.
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL LIKELY LINGERING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA...WHERE UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS
WILL STILL LIKELY RESIDE. WHILE CONVECTION FROM THE OVERNIGHT WILL
HAVE LIKELY EXITED THE AREA BY THE MORNING...THERE APPEARS TO BE A
CHANCE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST INDIANA MAINLY SOUTH OF PONTIAC ILLINOIS TO
MOROCCO INDIANA LINE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THESE LOCATIONS ARE
INDICATING INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH LITTLE TO NO CIN DURING THE
MORNING AND ALTHOUGH THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
LOW...THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A SMALL WINDOW BEFORE THE AXIS OF BEST
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE CWA BY MIDDAY.
THE AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE DRY WITH CLEARING SKIES...AND WITH
TEMPERATURES INCREASING INTO THE 80S. WINDS NEAR THE LAKE WILL BEGIN
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AND WITH A SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST/EAST
LIKELY BY MIDDAY...LIMITING TEMPS TO THE 70S.
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE QUIET SUNDAY EVENING AND THROUGH MUCH OF
SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...ATTENTION TURNS BACK WEST TOWARDS INCREASING
MID LEVEL ENERGY AND A STRENGTHENING LLJ. THESE FEATURES WILL ALLOW
FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WELL WEST OF THE CWA ACROSS IOWA
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. SOME OF THIS DEVELOPMENT COULD POSSIBLY REACH
THE FAR WESTERN CWA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND HAVE
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING DURING THIS TIME. THE BETTER
CHANCES WILL COME MONDAY MORNING WHEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE. VEERING LLJ...APPROACHING MID LEVEL
SUPPORT...AND GOOD MOIST/TEMP ADVECTION SHOULD PROVIDE AMPLE SUPPORT
FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WITH THIS DECENT
FORCING IN PLACE AND WHILE MODERATE/STRONG INSTABILITY ALOFT QUICKLY
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE CWA...COULD ALLOW FOR SOME OF THESE STORMS TO
BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE LIKELY HAZARD WOULD BE FOR LARGE
HAIL...BEFORE THIS DEVELOPMENT LIFTS NORTH OF THE CWA BY MIDDAY.
GUIDANCE DOES VARY TO HOW MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL EVOLVE WITH REGARD
TO ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT IT WOULD APPEAR THAT
THERE WILL BE A DRY WINDOW DURING THIS TIME. PERSISTING WARM/MOIST
PUSH RIDING ALONG STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE OBSERVED
MONDAY AND IF THE CLOUDS CAN DEPART...TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WILL BE LIKELY.
ANOTHER DECENT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ARRIVING MONDAY NIGHT WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THEM TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE. HAVE NOT
INCREASE POPS DURING THIS TIME TOO MUCH OWING TO SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH COVERAGE AND EXACT TIMING. HOWEVER...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA...DEVELOPMENT DEFINITELY APPEARS
POSSIBLE. THIS FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE CWA BY TUESDAY BUT
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT IT COULD LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
DURING THIS TIME. IF IT DOES...THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL CHANCES OVER
THE SOUTHERN CWA.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...
* SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA THIS EVENING.
* POSSIBLE WIND SHIFT TO NORTHEAST THIS EVENING.
* MVFR VIS/CIGS OVERNIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.
* POSSIBLE NORTHEAST WINDS SUNDAY. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 22Z...
THUNDERSTORMS THAT CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER FAR NORTHWEST IL
WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO A LESS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED MORE WESTERLY
WITH OUTFLOW FROM THIS ACTIVITY AND SHOULD REMAIN WESTERLY INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING.
MORE SIGNIFICANT AND WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN IOWA AND THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA...AND THEN MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN IL
AND THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING...REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND HAVE MADE
NO CHANGES TO CURRENT THUNDER TIMING AS THIS TIMING STILL LOOKS ON
TRACK IF THUNDERSTORMS DO INDEED MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS WINDS MAY TURN NORTHEAST OFF THE
LAKE LATER THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE OF A WIND SHIFT IS LOW AS IS
SPEEDS SHOULD WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. CMS
PREVIOUS 18Z DISCUSSION...
DECAYING AREA OF SHRA OVER NORTHERN IL WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
APART AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE RFD-ROCHELLE AREA. SOME OF
WHAT IS APPEARING ON RADAR IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND AS RAIN.
STRONG PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH DECAYING AREA OF CONVECTION
OVER WI HELPING TO CAUSE SOUTH WINDS TO ACCELERATE INTO MESO LOW
PRESSURE AREA CAUSING WINDS TO GUST 30-40 KT OVER NORTHWEST IL.
EXPECT AREA OF HIGHER WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS TO PROPAGATE EAST
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS OVER IA TO EXPAND LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND MOVE EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST
INTO IL THIS EVENING. EXPECT GREATEST COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
TSTMS TO PASS WEST AND SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. WILL
STILL SEE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AT ORD
AND MDW PER TIMING IN TAFS.
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING INTO THE MORNING HOURS BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT... EXPECT MVFR VSBYS FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND
SUNRISE. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE BY MID
MORNING HELPING TO MIX OUT LIGHT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS.
ED F
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z...
* MEDIUM FOR SHRA/TSRA THIS EVENING.
* LOW FOR WIND SHIFT TO NORTHEAST THIS EVENING.
* HIGH FOR MVFR VIS/CIGS OVERNIGHT...MEDIUM FOR TIMING.
* MEDIUM FOR WINDS SUNDAY. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. WEST WINDS.
* MONDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. EASTERLY WINDS.
* THURSDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. SOUTHEAST WINDS TURNING
SOUTHWEST.
* FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS.
LENNING
&&
.MARINE...
408 PM CDT
THERE WAS A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE...POSSIBLY UP TO 33 KT FOR A
TIME. HOWEVER...WINDS HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED BACK TO THE 10 TO 15
KT RANGE IN THE NEAR TERM. THESE SPEEDS WITH GENERALLY SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND INTO A PORTION OF THE
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE A TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A SMALL WINDOW OF 10 TO 20 KT WINDS WITH
THIS WIND SHIFT...THE MORE PREVAILING SPEEDS WILL BE IN THE 10 TO
15 KT RANGE. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN SUNDAY MORNING BUT
DIMINISH AND THEN LIKELY BECOME MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT BACK MORE
SOUTHERLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND THEN INCREASE DURING THIS
TIME. THIS INCREASE WILL ESPECIALLY OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING...WHEN SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 30 KT ARE APPEARING
LIKELY. THIS WILL PERSIST UNTIL ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH WINDS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST
WHILE DIMINISHING.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
517 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...
329 PM CDT
THROUGH TONIGHT...
STILL LINGERING UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING...WITH AN OVERALL TREND TOWARD A LOWER
THREAT FOR THE THE NORTHEAST 1/2 TO 2/3 OF THE CWA. AS NOTED
EARLIER...CLOUD COVER HAS OVERALL LIMITED DESTABILIZATION PROCESS
EVEN IN PRESENCE OF GRADUALLY MOISTENING DEWPOINTS. ALSO A VERY
STOUT WARM NOSE AT BASE OF EML ADVECTING WESTWARD CENTERED FROM
750-850 MB NOTED ON 18Z DVN SOUNDING WILL RESULT IN CAPPING/CINH
AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ITS APPEARS THAT
LINGERING CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST IA AND NORTHWEST
IL ON NOSE OF SPEED MAX SEEN ON W/V IMAGERY COULD BE MAIN FOCUS
FOR WHAT OCCURS THIS EVENING...ONCE STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES AND
WEAKENS THE CAP. IT STILL LOOKS THAT STRONGEST INSTABILITY AXIS
WITH MLCAPE UP TO 1K TO 2K J/KG WILL RESIDE NEAR OR JUST WEST OF
THE FAR WEST AND SOUTHWEST CWA. MORE ROBUST CONVECTION LIKELY WILL
RIDE THIS NORTH- NORTHWEST TO SOUTH- SOUTHEAST AXIS THIS EVENING.
THEREFORE...IN PRESENCE OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KT...HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS FAVORED TO BE WEST OF DIXON TO
OTTAWA TO PAXTON LINE...FAIRLY SIMILAR TO RECENT RUNS OF HRRR.
UPSCALE GROWTH INTO MCS MAY BE OCCURRING BY TIME STORMS
ARRIVE...SO PRIMARY THREATS FROM ANY SEVERE STORMS LOOK TO BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
FOR REST OF AREA...IT APPEARS BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS
WILL STILL PRESS SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AS DEPICTED ON
RECENT HRRR RUNS...BUT WITH MUCH LOWER CHANCE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING POTENTIAL MAY BE
LIMITED BUT ALSO NON-ZERO FOR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA...SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS
EVENING. COULD END UP BEING MORE OF A SHOWER/EMBEDDED THUNDER
SCENARIO. FINALLY...ANY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH HIGH PWAT IN 1.7 TO 1.8 INCH RANGE SAGGING
SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THUS GIVEN RECENT HEAVY RAINS...WILL
ALSO NEED TO MONITOR FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL THIS EVENING EVEN IN
FASTER STORM MOTIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S...WITH 60S DEWPOINTS YIELDING MUGGY CONDITIONS.
RC
&&
.LONG TERM...
329 PM CDT
SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES FOR THE PERIOD REMAIN WITH
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING NEXT WEEK.
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL LIKELY LINGERING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA...WHERE UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS
WILL STILL LIKELY RESIDE. WHILE CONVECTION FROM THE OVERNIGHT WILL
HAVE LIKELY EXITED THE AREA BY THE MORNING...THERE APPEARS TO BE A
CHANCE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST INDIANA MAINLY SOUTH OF PONTIAC ILLINOIS TO
MOROCCO INDIANA LINE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THESE LOCATIONS ARE
INDICATING INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH LITTLE TO NO CIN DURING THE
MORNING AND ALTHOUGH THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
LOW...THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A SMALL WINDOW BEFORE THE AXIS OF BEST
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE CWA BY MIDDAY.
THE AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE DRY WITH CLEARING SKIES...AND WITH
TEMPERATURES INCREASING INTO THE 80S. WINDS NEAR THE LAKE WILL BEGIN
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AND WITH A SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST/EAST
LIKELY BY MIDDAY...LIMITING TEMPS TO THE 70S.
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE QUIET SUNDAY EVENING AND THROUGH MUCH OF
SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...ATTENTION TURNS BACK WEST TOWARDS INCREASING
MID LEVEL ENERGY AND A STRENGTHENING LLJ. THESE FEATURES WILL ALLOW
FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WELL WEST OF THE CWA ACROSS IOWA
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. SOME OF THIS DEVELOPMENT COULD POSSIBLY REACH
THE FAR WESTERN CWA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND HAVE
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING DURING THIS TIME. THE BETTER
CHANCES WILL COME MONDAY MORNING WHEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE. VEERING LLJ...APPROACHING MID LEVEL
SUPPORT...AND GOOD MOIST/TEMP ADVECTION SHOULD PROVIDE AMPLE SUPPORT
FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WITH THIS DECENT
FORCING IN PLACE AND WHILE MODERATE/STRONG INSTABILITY ALOFT QUICKLY
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE CWA...COULD ALLOW FOR SOME OF THESE STORMS TO
BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE LIKELY HAZARD WOULD BE FOR LARGE
HAIL...BEFORE THIS DEVELOPMENT LIFTS NORTH OF THE CWA BY MIDDAY.
GUIDANCE DOES VARY TO HOW MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL EVOLVE WITH REGARD
TO ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT IT WOULD APPEAR THAT
THERE WILL BE A DRY WINDOW DURING THIS TIME. PERSISTING WARM/MOIST
PUSH RIDING ALONG STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE OBSERVED
MONDAY AND IF THE CLOUDS CAN DEPART...TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WILL BE LIKELY.
ANOTHER DECENT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ARRIVING MONDAY NIGHT WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THEM TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE. HAVE NOT
INCREASE POPS DURING THIS TIME TOO MUCH OWING TO SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH COVERAGE AND EXACT TIMING. HOWEVER...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA...DEVELOPMENT DEFINITELY APPEARS
POSSIBLE. THIS FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE CWA BY TUESDAY BUT
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT IT COULD LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
DURING THIS TIME. IF IT DOES...THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL CHANCES OVER
THE SOUTHERN CWA.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...
* SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA THIS EVENING.
* POSSIBLE WIND SHIFT TO NORTHEAST THIS EVENING.
* MVFR VIS/CIGS OVERNIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.
* POSSIBLE NORTHEAST WINDS SUNDAY. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 22Z...
THUNDERSTORMS THAT CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER FAR NORTHWEST IL
WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO A LESS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED MORE WESTERLY
WITH OUTFLOW FROM THIS ACTIVITY AND SHOULD REMAIN WESTERLY INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING.
MORE SIGNIFICANT AND WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN IOWA AND THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA...AND THEN MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN IL
AND THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING...REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND HAVE MADE
NO CHANGES TO CURRENT THUNDER TIMING AS THIS TIMING STILL LOOKS ON
TRACK IF THUNDERSTORMS DO INDEED MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS WINDS MAY TURN NORTHEAST OFF THE
LAKE LATER THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE OF A WIND SHIFT IS LOW AS IS
SPEEDS SHOULD WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. CMS
PREVIOUS 18Z DISCUSSION...
DECAYING AREA OF SHRA OVER NORTHERN IL WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
APART AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE RFD-ROCHELLE AREA. SOME OF
WHAT IS APPEARING ON RADAR IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND AS RAIN.
STRONG PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH DECAYING AREA OF CONVECTION
OVER WI HELPING TO CAUSE SOUTH WINDS TO ACCELERATE INTO MESO LOW
PRESSURE AREA CAUSING WINDS TO GUST 30-40 KT OVER NORTHWEST IL.
EXPECT AREA OF HIGHER WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS TO PROPAGATE EAST
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS OVER IA TO EXPAND LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND MOVE EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST
INTO IL THIS EVENING. EXPECT GREATEST COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
TSTMS TO PASS WEST AND SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. WILL
STILL SEE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AT ORD
AND MDW PER TIMING IN TAFS.
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING INTO THE MORNING HOURS BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT... EXPECT MVFR VSBYS FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND
SUNRISE. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE BY MID
MORNING HELPING TO MIX OUT LIGHT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS.
ED F
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z...
* MEDIUM FOR SHRA/TSRA THIS EVENING.
* LOW FOR WIND SHIFT TO NORTHEAST THIS EVENING.
* HIGH FOR MVFR VIS/CIGS OVERNIGHT...MEDIUM FOR TIMING.
* MEDIUM FOR WINDS SUNDAY. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. WEST WINDS.
* MONDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. EASTERLY WINDS.
* THURSDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. SOUTHEAST WINDS TURNING
SOUTHWEST.
* FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS.
LENNING
&&
.MARINE...
408 PM CDT
THERE WAS A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE...POSSIBLY UP TO 33 KT FOR A
TIME. HOWEVER...WINDS HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED BACK TO THE 10 TO 15
KT RANGE IN THE NEAR TERM. THESE SPEEDS WITH GENERALLY SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND INTO A PORTION OF THE
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE A TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A SMALL WINDOW OF 10 TO 20 KT WINDS WITH
THIS WIND SHIFT...THE MORE PREVAILING SPEEDS WILL BE IN THE 10 TO
15 KT RANGE. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN SUNDAY MORNING BUT
DIMINISH AND THEN LIKELY BECOME MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT BACK MORE
SOUTHERLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND THEN INCREASE DURING THIS
TIME. THIS INCREASE WILL ESPECIALLY OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING...WHEN SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 30 KT ARE APPEARING
LIKELY. THIS WILL PERSIST UNTIL ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH WINDS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST
WHILE DIMINISHING.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
408 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...
329 PM CDT
THROUGH TONIGHT...
STILL LINGERING UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING...WITH AN OVERALL TREND TOWARD A LOWER
THREAT FOR THE THE NORTHEAST 1/2 TO 2/3 OF THE CWA. AS NOTED
EARLIER...CLOUD COVER HAS OVERALL LIMITED DESTABILIZATION PROCESS
EVEN IN PRESENCE OF GRADUALLY MOISTENING DEWPOINTS. ALSO A VERY
STOUT WARM NOSE AT BASE OF EML ADVECTING WESTWARD CENTERED FROM
750-850 MB NOTED ON 18Z DVN SOUNDING WILL RESULT IN CAPPING/CINH
AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ITS APPEARS THAT
LINGERING CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST IA AND NORTHWEST
IL ON NOSE OF SPEED MAX SEEN ON W/V IMAGERY COULD BE MAIN FOCUS
FOR WHAT OCCURS THIS EVENING...ONCE STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES AND
WEAKENS THE CAP. IT STILL LOOKS THAT STRONGEST INSTABILITY AXIS
WITH MLCAPE UP TO 1K TO 2K J/KG WILL RESIDE NEAR OR JUST WEST OF
THE FAR WEST AND SOUTHWEST CWA. MORE ROBUST CONVECTION LIKELY WILL
RIDE THIS NORTH- NORTHWEST TO SOUTH- SOUTHEAST AXIS THIS EVENING.
THEREFORE...IN PRESENCE OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KT...HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS FAVORED TO BE WEST OF DIXON TO
OTTAWA TO PAXTON LINE...FAIRLY SIMILAR TO RECENT RUNS OF HRRR.
UPSCALE GROWTH INTO MCS MAY BE OCCURRING BY TIME STORMS
ARRIVE...SO PRIMARY THREATS FROM ANY SEVERE STORMS LOOK TO BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
FOR REST OF AREA...IT APPEARS BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS
WILL STILL PRESS SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AS DEPICTED ON
RECENT HRRR RUNS...BUT WITH MUCH LOWER CHANCE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING POTENTIAL MAY BE
LIMITED BUT ALSO NON-ZERO FOR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA...SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS
EVENING. COULD END UP BEING MORE OF A SHOWER/EMBEDDED THUNDER
SCENARIO. FINALLY...ANY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH HIGH PWAT IN 1.7 TO 1.8 INCH RANGE SAGGING
SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THUS GIVEN RECENT HEAVY RAINS...WILL
ALSO NEED TO MONITOR FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL THIS EVENING EVEN IN
FASTER STORM MOTIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S...WITH 60S DEWPOINTS YIELDING MUGGY CONDITIONS.
RC
&&
.LONG TERM...
329 PM CDT
SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES FOR THE PERIOD REMAIN WITH
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING NEXT WEEK.
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL LIKELY LINGERING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA...WHERE UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS
WILL STILL LIKELY RESIDE. WHILE CONVECTION FROM THE OVERNIGHT WILL
HAVE LIKELY EXITED THE AREA BY THE MORNING...THERE APPEARS TO BE A
CHANCE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST INDIANA MAINLY SOUTH OF PONTIAC ILLINOIS TO
MOROCCO INDIANA LINE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THESE LOCATIONS ARE
INDICATING INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH LITTLE TO NO CIN DURING THE
MORNING AND ALTHOUGH THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
LOW...THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A SMALL WINDOW BEFORE THE AXIS OF BEST
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE CWA BY MIDDAY.
THE AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE DRY WITH CLEARING SKIES...AND WITH
TEMPERATURES INCREASING INTO THE 80S. WINDS NEAR THE LAKE WILL BEGIN
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AND WITH A SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST/EAST
LIKELY BY MIDDAY...LIMITING TEMPS TO THE 70S.
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE QUIET SUNDAY EVENING AND THROUGH MUCH OF
SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...ATTENTION TURNS BACK WEST TOWARDS INCREASING
MID LEVEL ENERGY AND A STRENGTHENING LLJ. THESE FEATURES WILL ALLOW
FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WELL WEST OF THE CWA ACROSS IOWA
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. SOME OF THIS DEVELOPMENT COULD POSSIBLY REACH
THE FAR WESTERN CWA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND HAVE
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING DURING THIS TIME. THE BETTER
CHANCES WILL COME MONDAY MORNING WHEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE. VEERING LLJ...APPROACHING MID LEVEL
SUPPORT...AND GOOD MOIST/TEMP ADVECTION SHOULD PROVIDE AMPLE SUPPORT
FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WITH THIS DECENT
FORCING IN PLACE AND WHILE MODERATE/STRONG INSTABILITY ALOFT QUICKLY
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE CWA...COULD ALLOW FOR SOME OF THESE STORMS TO
BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE LIKELY HAZARD WOULD BE FOR LARGE
HAIL...BEFORE THIS DEVELOPMENT LIFTS NORTH OF THE CWA BY MIDDAY.
GUIDANCE DOES VARY TO HOW MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL EVOLVE WITH REGARD
TO ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT IT WOULD APPEAR THAT
THERE WILL BE A DRY WINDOW DURING THIS TIME. PERSISTING WARM/MOIST
PUSH RIDING ALONG STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE OBSERVED
MONDAY AND IF THE CLOUDS CAN DEPART...TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WILL BE LIKELY.
ANOTHER DECENT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ARRIVING MONDAY NIGHT WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THEM TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE. HAVE NOT
INCREASE POPS DURING THIS TIME TOO MUCH OWING TO SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH COVERAGE AND EXACT TIMING. HOWEVER...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA...DEVELOPMENT DEFINITELY APPEARS
POSSIBLE. THIS FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE CWA BY TUESDAY BUT
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT IT COULD LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
DURING THIS TIME. IF IT DOES...THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL CHANCES OVER
THE SOUTHERN CWA.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING WEST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
* SPECIFIC TIMING AND NATURE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY REACH ORD
AND MDW THIS EVENING.
* SFC WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AND GUSTY AT TIMES.
ED F
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
DECAYING AREA OF SHRA OVER NORTHERN IL WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
APART AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE RFD-ROCHELLE AREA. SOME OF
WHAT IS APPEARING ON RADAR IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND AS RAIN.
STRONG PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH DECAYING AREA OF CONVECTION
OVER WI HELPING TO CAUSE SOUTH WINDS TO ACCELERATE INTO MESO LOW
PRESSURE AREA CAUSING WINDS TO GUST 30-40 KT OVER NORTHWEST IL.
EXPECT AREA OF HIGHER WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS TO PROPAGATE EAST
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS OVER IA TO EXPAND LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND MOVE EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST
INTO IL THIS EVENING. EXPECT GREATEST COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
TSTMS TO PASS WEST AND SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. WILL
STILL SEE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AT ORD
AND MDW PER TIMING IN TAFS.
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING INTO THE MORNING HOURS BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT... EXPECT MVFR VSBYS FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND
SUNRISE. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE BY MID
MORNING HELPING TO MIX OUT LIGHT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS.
ED F
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ARRIVAL TIME OF VCTS 8-9PM AT ORD
AND MDW. PERIOD OF RAIN/TSRA EXPECTED TO FOLLOW PER TAFS.
* LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN NATURE OF CONVECTION... INTENSITY
AND DURATION AT ORD AND MDW.
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FCST.
ED F
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. WEST WINDS.
* MONDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. EASTERLY WINDS.
* THURSDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. SOUTHEAST WINDS TURNING
SOUTHWEST.
* FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS.
LENNING
&&
.MARINE...
408 PM CDT
THERE WAS A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE...POSSIBLY UP TO 33 KT FOR A
TIME. HOWEVER...WINDS HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED BACK TO THE 10 TO 15
KT RANGE IN THE NEAR TERM. THESE SPEEDS WITH GENERALLY SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND INTO A PORTION OF THE
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE A TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A SMALL WINDOW OF 10 TO 20 KT WINDS WITH
THIS WIND SHIFT...THE MORE PREVAILING SPEEDS WILL BE IN THE 10 TO
15 KT RANGE. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN SUNDAY MORNING BUT
DIMINISH AND THEN LIKELY BECOME MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT BACK MORE
SOUTHERLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND THEN INCREASE DURING THIS
TIME. THIS INCREASE WILL ESPECIALLY OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING...WHEN SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 30 KT ARE APPEARING
LIKELY. THIS WILL PERSIST UNTIL ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH WINDS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST
WHILE DIMINISHING.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
329 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...
329 PM CDT
THROUGH TONIGHT...
STILL LINGERING UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING...WITH AN OVERALL TREND TOWARD A LOWER
THREAT FOR THE THE NORTHEAST 1/2 TO 2/3 OF THE CWA. AS NOTED
EARLIER...CLOUD COVER HAS OVERALL LIMITED DESTABILIZATION PROCESS
EVEN IN PRESENCE OF GRADUALLY MOISTENING DEWPOINTS. ALSO A VERY
STOUT WARM NOSE AT BASE OF EML ADVECTING WESTWARD CENTERED FROM
750-850 MB NOTED ON 18Z DVN SOUNDING WILL RESULT IN CAPPING/CINH
AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ITS APPEARS THAT
LINGERING CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST IA AND NORTHWEST
IL ON NOSE OF SPEED MAX SEEN ON W/V IMAGERY COULD BE MAIN FOCUS
FOR WHAT OCCURS THIS EVENING...ONCE STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES AND
WEAKENS THE CAP. IT STILL LOOKS THAT STRONGEST INSTABILITY AXIS
WITH MLCAPE UP TO 1K TO 2K J/KG WILL RESIDE NEAR OR JUST WEST OF
THE FAR WEST AND SOUTHWEST CWA. MORE ROBUST CONVECTION LIKELY WILL
RIDE THIS NORTH- NORTHWEST TO SOUTH- SOUTHEAST AXIS THIS EVENING.
THEREFORE...IN PRESENCE OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KT...HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS FAVORED TO BE WEST OF DIXON TO
OTTAWA TO PAXTON LINE...FAIRLY SIMILAR TO RECENT RUNS OF HRRR.
UPSCALE GROWTH INTO MCS MAY BE OCCURRING BY TIME STORMS
ARRIVE...SO PRIMARY THREATS FROM ANY SEVERE STORMS LOOK TO BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
FOR REST OF AREA...IT APPEARS BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS
WILL STILL PRESS SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AS DEPICTED ON
RECENT HRRR RUNS...BUT WITH MUCH LOWER CHANCE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING POTENTIAL MAY BE
LIMITED BUT ALSO NON-ZERO FOR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA...SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS
EVENING. COULD END UP BEING MORE OF A SHOWER/EMBEDDED THUNDER
SCENARIO. FINALLY...ANY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH HIGH PWAT IN 1.7 TO 1.8 INCH RANGE SAGGING
SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THUS GIVEN RECENT HEAVY RAINS...WILL
ALSO NEED TO MONITOR FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL THIS EVENING EVEN IN
FASTER STORM MOTIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S...WITH 60S DEWPOINTS YIELDING MUGGY CONDITIONS.
RC
&&
.LONG TERM...
329 PM CDT
SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES FOR THE PERIOD REMAIN WITH
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING NEXT WEEK.
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL LIKELY LINGERING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA...WHERE UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS
WILL STILL LIKELY RESIDE. WHILE CONVECTION FROM THE OVERNIGHT WILL
HAVE LIKELY EXITED THE AREA BY THE MORNING...THERE APPEARS TO BE A
CHANCE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST INDIANA MAINLY SOUTH OF PONTIAC ILLINOIS TO
MOROCCO INDIANA LINE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THESE LOCATIONS ARE
INDICATING INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH LITTLE TO NO CIN DURING THE
MORNING AND ALTHOUGH THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
LOW...THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A SMALL WINDOW BEFORE THE AXIS OF BEST
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE CWA BY MIDDAY.
THE AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE DRY WITH CLEARING SKIES...AND WITH
TEMPERATURES INCREASING INTO THE 80S. WINDS NEAR THE LAKE WILL BEGIN
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AND WITH A SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST/EAST
LIKELY BY MIDDAY...LIMITING TEMPS TO THE 70S.
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE QUIET SUNDAY EVENING AND THROUGH MUCH OF
SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...ATTENTION TURNS BACK WEST TOWARDS INCREASING
MID LEVEL ENERGY AND A STRENGTHENING LLJ. THESE FEATURES WILL ALLOW
FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WELL WEST OF THE CWA ACROSS IOWA
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. SOME OF THIS DEVELOPMENT COULD POSSIBLY REACH
THE FAR WESTERN CWA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND HAVE
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING DURING THIS TIME. THE BETTER
CHANCES WILL COME MONDAY MORNING WHEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE. VEERING LLJ...APPROACHING MID LEVEL
SUPPORT...AND GOOD MOIST/TEMP ADVECTION SHOULD PROVIDE AMPLE SUPPORT
FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WITH THIS DECENT
FORCING IN PLACE AND WHILE MODERATE/STRONG INSTABILITY ALOFT QUICKLY
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE CWA...COULD ALLOW FOR SOME OF THESE STORMS TO
BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE LIKELY HAZARD WOULD BE FOR LARGE
HAIL...BEFORE THIS DEVELOPMENT LIFTS NORTH OF THE CWA BY MIDDAY.
GUIDANCE DOES VARY TO HOW MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL EVOLVE WITH REGARD
TO ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT IT WOULD APPEAR THAT
THERE WILL BE A DRY WINDOW DURING THIS TIME. PERSISTING WARM/MOIST
PUSH RIDING ALONG STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE OBSERVED
MONDAY AND IF THE CLOUDS CAN DEPART...TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WILL BE LIKELY.
ANOTHER DECENT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ARRIVING MONDAY NIGHT WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THEM TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE. HAVE NOT
INCREASE POPS DURING THIS TIME TOO MUCH OWING TO SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH COVERAGE AND EXACT TIMING. HOWEVER...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA...DEVELOPMENT DEFINITELY APPEARS
POSSIBLE. THIS FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE CWA BY TUESDAY BUT
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT IT COULD LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
DURING THIS TIME. IF IT DOES...THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL CHANCES OVER
THE SOUTHERN CWA.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING WEST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
* SPECIFIC TIMING AND NATURE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY REACH ORD
AND MDW THIS EVENING.
* SFC WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AND GUSTY AT TIMES.
ED F
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
DECAYING AREA OF SHRA OVER NORTHERN IL WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
APART AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE RFD-ROCHELLE AREA. SOME OF
WHAT IS APPEARING ON RADAR IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND AS RAIN.
STRONG PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH DECAYING AREA OF CONVECTION
OVER WI HELPING TO CAUSE SOUTH WINDS TO ACCELERATE INTO MESO LOW
PRESSURE AREA CAUSING WINDS TO GUST 30-40 KT OVER NORTHWEST IL.
EXPECT AREA OF HIGHER WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS TO PROPAGATE EAST
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS OVER IA TO EXPAND LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND MOVE EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST
INTO IL THIS EVENING. EXPECT GREATEST COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
TSTMS TO PASS WEST AND SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. WILL
STILL SEE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AT ORD
AND MDW PER TIMING IN TAFS.
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING INTO THE MORNING HOURS BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT... EXPECT MVFR VSBYS FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND
SUNRISE. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE BY MID
MORNING HELPING TO MIX OUT LIGHT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS.
ED F
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ARRIVAL TIME OF VCTS 8-9PM AT ORD
AND MDW. PERIOD OF RAIN/TSRA EXPECTED TO FOLLOW PER TAFS.
* LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN NATURE OF CONVECTION... INTENSITY
AND DURATION AT ORD AND MDW.
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FCST.
ED F
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. WEST WINDS.
* MONDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. EASTERLY WINDS.
* THURSDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. SOUTHEAST WINDS TURNING
SOUTHWEST.
* FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS.
LENNING
&&
.MARINE...
256 AM CDT
EASTERLY FLOW EARLY TODAY WILL TURN SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO IOWA AND WISCONSIN. THE LOW WILL CROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND PULL A COLD FRONT THROUGH WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PERSIST INTO
MONDAY WHEN THE NEXT LOW APPROACHES...AT WHICH POINT WINDS TURN
SOUTH AND BECOME STRONGER AND GUSTIER LATE IN THE DAY.
THE ONLY OTHER CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE WARM AND MOIST
NATURE OF THE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH OF THE APPROACHING
LOWS. IN ADDITION TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FOG TODAY AND MONDAY.
LENNING
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1142 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
A SMALL SHORTWAVE HELPED PRODUCE LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES BETWEEN 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR WERE REPORTED EARLIER THIS
EVENING ACROSS CLAY COUNTY. WE RECEIVED REPORTS OF ROAD FLOODING
AND MOST DITCHES COMPLETELY FULL. THE RAP MODELS DEPICTION OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2 INCHES APPEARS ACCURATE BASED ON
RAINFALL EFFICIENCY. THE SHORTWAVE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS
EVENING, WITH A BREAK IN THE HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE LATE THIS
EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL RAIN AND STORM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BEFORE MORNING SOUTH OF I-72 AND
ESPECIALLY TOWARD I-70. POP AND WEATHER GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
FOR CURRENT TRENDS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND TO REMOVE POPS FOR PEORIA
AND NORTH, AS DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE NORTHEAST SHOULD
PROVIDE A RELATIVELY SHARP CUT-OFF TO THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
PRECIP SHIELD OVERNIGHT.
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR OUR SOUTHEAST 6 COUNTIES LOOKS ON TRACK
FOR THE EXPECTED PRECIP FROM THE REMNANTS OF BILL THROUGH
SATURDAY.
UPDATED FORECAST INFO IS ALREADY AVAILABLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS SOUTHEAST OF A CANTON TO PEORIA TO MINONK LINE
AT MID AFTERNOON. A FEW AREAS HAVE RECEIVED A QUICK 0.75 TO 1.25
INCHES IN LESS THAN AN HOUR IN TROPICAL AIRMASS WITH SOME WATER
OVER A FEW ROADS SE OF THE IL RIVER. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
RUNNING FROM 1.5 TO 2.25 INCHES FROM THE IL RIVER SOUTHEAST AND
SUPPORT THESE HEAVY RAINS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST SE OF THE IL
RIVER WILL PRESS SOUTHEAST TOWARD I-70 BY DAWN FRIDAY. MEANWHILE
1007 MB LOW PRESSURE (REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL) OVER EAST
CENTRAL OK WILL SLOWLY TRACK ENE INTO NORTH CENTRAL AR BY 12Z/FRI.
MODELS GENERALLY SHOW MORE WIDESPREAD QPF FROM I-72 SOUTH TONIGHT
AND HAVE HIT POPS HIGHEST IN THESE AREAS ALONG WITH HEAVIER QPF
NEAR A HALF INCH WITH LOCALLY 1 INCH AMOUNTS. JUST SLIGHT CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NW OF THE IL RIVER TONIGHT AND LIKELY
DRY OVER FAR NW CWA OVER KNOX AND STARK COUNTIES. LOWS TONIGHT
RANGE FROM LOWER 60S NORTHERN COUNTIES TO MID TO UPPER 60S FROM
I-72 SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
REMNANTS OF BILL WILL CONTINUE TO EFFECT THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
CWA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS DIFFER SOME ON TIMING OF THESE
REMNANTS INTO THE WEEKEND BUT SEEM TO AGREE ON TRACK/LOCATION AND
HOW FAR NORTH THE HEAVIEST PCPN WILL BE THROUGH THE FRI AND FRI
NIGHT PERIOD. THIS PCPN WILL BE SLOW MOVING SO HEAVY RAINFALL IS
DEFINITELY A THREAT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUED
FOR THUR NIGHT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI NIGHT. PCPN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE SATURDAY BUT THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING SHOULD HAVE ENDED
IN THE SOUTHEAST. ONCE REMNANTS OF BILL LEAVE THE AREA TO THE
EAST...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
BRING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FOR SAT NIGHT. THIS
FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO BY SUNDAY
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 85 TO 90 RANGE.
THE FRONT THAT MOVES IN SAT NIGHT WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER THE AREA
FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AND THEN WOBBLE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CWA ALL THE WAY THROUGH WED NIGHT. BY THEN IT
APPEARS THE FRONT COULD LIFT BACK NORTH SO THAT THE CHANCE OF PCPN
COULD END BY THURSDAY. HOWEVER WITH THIS BEING A WEEK AWAY...THE
FORECAST COULD CHANGE AND BRING THE PCPN BACK INTO THE AREA.
WITH THE CWA BEING SOMEWHAT IN THE WARM SECTOR...TEMPS WILL REMAIN
IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
SUSTAINED FORCING FOR PRECIP WILL EXIST AHEAD OF THE REMNANTS OF
BILL ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST AREA S OF I-72 THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF
SPI, DEC AND POSSIBLY CMI. PIA AND BMI HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF
REMAINING DRY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AS THEY RESIDE NORTH OF THE
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
INITIAL CONCERNS OVERNIGHT WILL BE CEILINGS DROPPING TO IFR BELOW
1K FEET, AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG. WE DON`T EXPECT WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG DUE TO A BLANKET OF CLOUDS, BUT MVFR FOG LOOKS LIKELY
BASED ON THE SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER AND LIGHT WINDS ALREADY IN
PLACE.
IFR CEILINGS COULD LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING, BUT THEN SHOULD
LIFT TO MVFR AS VIS IMPROVES ABOVE MVFR AS WELL.
PRECIP CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY FRIDAY EVENING,
SO WE DID NOT MENTION ANY RAIN AFTER 00Z/7PM.
WINDS HAVE BECOME EAST AT ALL BUT CMI, WHERE WINDS WENT SOUTHEAST
UNDER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FRONT IS PROJECTED TO REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW, SO WIND DIRECTIONS WILL NOT
CHANGE MUCH FROM TONIGHT.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR ILZ066>068-
071>073.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SHIMON
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM...AUTEN
AVIATION...SHIMON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1018 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
A REMNANT TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO
TONIGHT. THEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
AND LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN MORE PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1007 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK...SO NO CHANGES. LATEST RADAR
MOSAIC SHOWS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA COULD START SEEING SOME PRECIP WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION MOVING IN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE ONLY COUNTY STILL UNDER SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER IS WARREN COUNTY. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN IOWA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN AND IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES OF CENTRAL INDIANA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH INITIALLY SHOWING THIS SYSTEM
TO BE QUITE PROGRESSIVE AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE CENTRAL CWA DURING THE
WEE EARLY HOURS SUNDAY MORNING...THEN BEGINS TO SLOW DOWN AND
POSSIBLY EVEN STALL OUT AS IT DROPS SOUTH OF THE I 70 CORRIDOR.
TRIED TO DEPICT POPS IN THE FORECAST AS IN THE HRRR AND OTHER NEAR
TERM GUIDANCE WITH HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THEN SLOWLY MOVING THIS SYSTEM SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT TIL IT REACHES THE SOUTHERN TWO TO THREE
TIERS OF COUNTIES OF THE CWA AND EITHER SLOWS DOWN...WEAKENS...OR
ALL TOGETHER JUST STALLS OUT AND LATER WEAKENS.
SEVERE WX THREAT FOR TONIGHT VERY MARGINAL WITH ONLY WARREN COUNTY
INCLUDED IN SPC/S DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK. SO SOME OF THESE STORMS DO HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL AS THE MAIN
THREATS. AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING NOT TO BE
DISCOUNTED IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SEEMS REASONABLE AS
THE NUMBERS ARE COMING IN SIMILAR FOR LOWS AROUND 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THAT MORNING. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT IS POSSIBLE WITH THE
FRONT...AND THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS BEEN
SHUNTED SOUTHWARD BASED ON THE FASTER TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...SO NOW
THE ONLY COUNTIES IN THE DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK FOR KIND CWA LIE JUST
SOUTH OF THAT COMMON DIVIDING LINE THAT IT THE I 70 CORRIDOR.
BASICALLY KEEPING HIGHER CHANCE POPS ACROSS THIS AREA TO THE SOUTH
AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO ZERO POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES.
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THE FRONT MAY SAG FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH FOR A
LULL IN THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT...BUT WILL KEEP SOME SMALL/WEAK
CHANCES FOR POPS GOING SUNDAY NIGHT IN CASE THE FRONT ENDS UP MORE
STATIONARY.
APPEARS THE FRONT WILL BEGIN DRIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH DURING
MONDAY AND TUESDAY SO WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. ALSO BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES...APPEARS TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL BE GETTING
INTO THAT UNCOMFORTABLE RANGE AGAIN WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S
(OR HIGHER EVEN?) POSSIBLE...AND HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST USA DURING
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM...SETTING UP A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA. BY NEXT WEEKEND A TROUGH MAY DIG INTO THE AREA.
THIS FLOW WILL ALLOW A SURFACE FRONT TO STALL OUT ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA THROUGH THE EXTENDED. AS UPPER WAVES INTERACT WITH THE
FRONT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. MORE
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...WITH SOME COOLER CONDITIONS PERHAPS ARRIVING FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 210000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 636 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS WERE SHOWING AN INCREASE IN NEAR SURFACE
MOISTURE TONIGHT AFTER 04Z. HOWEVER...NOT CONFIDENT IN STRATUS
CEILINGS AS APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLE MCS SHOULD ERODE THE
LOW LEVEL INVERSION PER RAP SOUNDINGS. SO...WILL GO WITH MVFR
THROUGH 01Z AND THEN IT SHOULD SCATTER BEFORE THE STORMS MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT. WILL GO WITH VCTS AFTER 04Z AT LAF AND HUF AND AFTER 06Z
AT IND AND BMG. COULD CERTAINLY SEE MVFR CEILINGS IN
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT FOR NOW WITH TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF IOWA STORMS
STILL A BIT UP IN THE AIR...WILL JUST KEEP FLYING CONDITIONS AS VFR
AND TRY AND FINE TUNE TIMING OF ANY WORSE CONDITIONS WITH THE 06Z
TAF ISSUANCE OR LATE EVENING AMENDMENTS.
WILL TIME THE COLD FRONT TO LAF AROUND 15Z SUNDAY...IND AND HUF AT
18Z AND BMG AT 00Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON SUNDAY WILL
SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE SOUTHWEST
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF/TDUD
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...MK
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
636 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
A REMNANT TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO
TONIGHT. THEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
AND LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN MORE PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN IOWA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN AND IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES OF CENTRAL INDIANA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH INITIALLY SHOWING THIS SYSTEM
TO BE QUITE PROGRESSIVE AS IT MOVE TOWARD THE CENTRAL CWA DURING THE
WEE EARLY HOURS SUNDAY MORNING...THEN BEGINS TO SLOW DOWN AND
POSSIBLY EVEN STALL OUT AS IT DROPS SOUTH OF THE I 70 CORRIDOR.
TRIED TO DEPICT POPS IN THE FORECAST AS IN THE HRRR AND OTHER NEAR
TERM GUIDANCE WITH HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THEN SLOWLY MOVING THIS SYSTEM SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT TIL IT REACH THE SOUTHERN TWO TO THREE TIERS
OF COUNTIES OF THE CWA AND EITHER SLOWS DOWN...WEAKENS...OR ALL
TOGETHER JUST STALLS OUT AND LATER WEAKENS.
SEVERE WX THREAT FOR TONIGHT VERY MARGINAL WITH ONLY WARREN COUNTY
INCLUDED IN SPC/S DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK. SO SOME OF THESE STORMS DO HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL AS THE MAIN
THREATS. AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING NOT TO BE
DISCOUNTED IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SEEMS REASONABLE AS
THE NUMBERS ARE COMING IN SIMILAR FOR LOWS AROUND 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THAT MORNING. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT IS POSSIBLE WITH THE
FRONT...AND THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS BEEN
SHUNTED SOUTHWARD BASED ON THE FASTER TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...SO NOW
THE ONLY COUNTIES IN THE DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK FOR KIND CWA LIE JUST
SOUTH OF THAT COMMON DIVIDING LINE THAT IT THE I 70 CORRIDOR.
BASICALLY KEEPING HIGHER CHANCE POPS ACROSS THIS AREA TO THE SOUTH
AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO ZERO POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES.
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THE FRONT MAY SAG FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH FOR A
LULL IN THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT...BUT WILL KEEP SOME SMALL/WEAK
CHANCES FOR POPS GOING SUNDAY NIGHT IN CASE THE FRONT ENDS UP MORE
STATIONARY.
APPEARS THE FRONT WILL BEGIN DRIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH DURING
MONDAY AND TUESDAY SO WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. ALSO BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES...APPEARS TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL BE GETTING
INTO THAT UNCOMFORTABLE RANGE AGAIN WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S
(OR HIGHER EVEN?) POSSIBLE...AND HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST USA DURING
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM...SETTING UP A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA. BY NEXT WEEKEND A TROUGH MAY DIG INTO THE AREA.
THIS FLOW WILL ALLOW A SURFACE FRONT TO STALL OUT ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA THROUGH THE EXTENDED. AS UPPER WAVES INTERACT WITH THE
FRONT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. MORE
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...WITH SOME COOLER CONDITIONS PERHAPS ARRIVING FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 210000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 636 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS WERE SHOWING AN INCREASE IN NEAR SURFACE
MOISTURE TONIGHT AFTER 04Z. HOWEVER...NOT CONFIDENT IN STRATUS
CEILINGS AS APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLE MCS SHOULD ERODE THE
LOW LEVEL INVERSION PER RAP SOUNDINGS. SO...WILL GO WITH MVFR
THROUGH 01Z AND THEN IT SHOULD SCATTER BEFORE THE STORMS MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT. WILL GO WITH VCTS AFTER 04Z AT LAF AND HUF AND AFTER 06Z
AT IND AND BMG. COULD CERTAINLY SEE MVFR CEILINGS IN
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT FOR NOW WITH TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF IOWA STORMS
STILL A BIT UP IN THE AIR...WILL JUST KEEP FLYING CONDITIONS AS VFR
AND TRY AND FINE TUNE TIMING OF ANY WORSE CONDITIONS WITH THE 06Z
TAF ISSUANCE OR LATE EVENING AMENDMENTS.
WILL TIME THE COLD FRONT TO LAF AROUND 15Z SUNDAY...IND AND HUF AT
18Z AND BMG AT 00Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON SUNDAY WILL
SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE SOUTHWEST
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...MK
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
430 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
A REMNANT TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO
TONIGHT. THEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
AND LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN MORE PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN IOWA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN AND IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES OF CENTRAL INDIANA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH INITIALLY SHOWING THIS SYSTEM
TO BE QUITE PROGRESSIVE AS IT MOVE TOWARD THE CENTRAL CWA DURING THE
WEE EARLY HOURS SUNDAY MORNING...THEN BEGINS TO SLOW DOWN AND
POSSIBLY EVEN STALL OUT AS IT DROPS SOUTH OF THE I 70 CORRIDOR.
TRIED TO DEPICT POPS IN THE FORECAST AS IN THE HRRR AND OTHER NEAR
TERM GUIDANCE WITH HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THEN SLOWLY MOVING THIS SYSTEM SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT TIL IT REACH THE SOUTHERN TWO TO THREE TIERS
OF COUNTIES OF THE CWA AND EITHER SLOWS DOWN...WEAKENS...OR ALL
TOGETHER JUST STALLS OUT AND LATER WEAKENS.
SEVERE WX THREAT FOR TONIGHT VERY MARGINAL WITH ONLY WARREN COUNTY
INCLUDED IN SPC/S DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK. SO SOME OF THESE STORMS DO HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL AS THE MAIN
THREATS. AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING NOT TO BE
DISCOUNTED IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SEEMS REASONABLE AS
THE NUMBERS ARE COMING IN SIMILAR FOR LOWS AROUND 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THAT MORNING. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT IS POSSIBLE WITH THE
FRONT...AND THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS BEEN
SHUNTED SOUTHWARD BASED ON THE FASTER TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...SO NOW
THE ONLY COUNTIES IN THE DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK FOR KIND CWA LIE JUST
SOUTH OF THAT COMMON DIVIDING LINE THAT IT THE I 70 CORRIDOR.
BASICALLY KEEPING HIGHER CHANCE POPS ACROSS THIS AREA TO THE SOUTH
AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO ZERO POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES.
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THE FRONT MAY SAG FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH FOR A
LULL IN THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT...BUT WILL KEEP SOME SMALL/WEAK
CHANCES FOR POPS GOING SUNDAY NIGHT IN CASE THE FRONT ENDS UP MORE
STATIONARY.
APPEARS THE FRONT WILL BEGIN DRIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH DURING
MONDAY AND TUESDAY SO WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. ALSO BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES...APPEARS TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL BE GETTING
INTO THAT UNCOMFORTABLE RANGE AGAIN WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S
(OR HIGHER EVEN?) POSSIBLE...AND HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST USA DURING
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM...SETTING UP A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA. BY NEXT WEEKEND A TROUGH MAY DIG INTO THE AREA.
THIS FLOW WILL ALLOW A SURFACE FRONT TO STALL OUT ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA THROUGH THE EXTENDED. AS UPPER WAVES INTERACT WITH THE
FRONT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. MORE
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...WITH SOME COOLER CONDITIONS PERHAPS ARRIVING FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 202100Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 430 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
DELAYED VFR CEILINGS TIL 23Z PER TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 1243 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY
VFR AFTERWARD WITH POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
STUBBORN MVFR DECK WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SITES FOR A WHILE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT IT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON.
A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 05Z OR SO
TONIGHT...THEN MORE CONVECTION MAY ARRIVE INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES IN. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND COVERAGE SO
CONTINUED JUST A VCTS MENTION AS IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...50/MK
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
333 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
A REMNANT TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO
TONIGHT. THEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
AND LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN MORE PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN IOWA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN AND IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES OF CENTRAL INDIANA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH INITIALLY SHOWING THIS SYSTEM
TO BE QUITE PROGRESSIVE AS IT MOVE TOWARD THE CENTRAL CWA DURING THE
WEE EARLY HOURS SUNDAY MORNING...THEN BEGINS TO SLOW DOWN AND
POSSIBLY EVEN STALL OUT AS IT DROPS SOUTH OF THE I 70 CORRIDOR.
TRIED TO DEPICT POPS IN THE FORECAST AS IN THE HRRR AND OTHER NEAR
TERM GUIDANCE WITH HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THEN SLOWLY MOVING THIS SYSTEM SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT TIL IT REACH THE SOUTHERN TWO TO THREE TIERS
OF COUNTIES OF THE CWA AND EITHER SLOWS DOWN...WEAKENS...OR ALL
TOGETHER JUST STALLS OUT AND LATER WEAKENS.
SEVERE WX THREAT FOR TONIGHT VERY MARGINAL WITH ONLY WARREN COUNTY
INCLUDED IN SPC/S DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK. SO SOME OF THESE STORMS DO HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL AS THE MAIN
THREATS. AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING NOT TO BE
DISCOUNTED IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SEEMS REASONABLE AS
THE NUMBERS ARE COMING IN SIMILAR FOR LOWS AROUND 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THAT MORNING. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT IS POSSIBLE WITH THE
FRONT...AND THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS BEEN
SHUNTED SOUTHWARD BASED ON THE FASTER TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...SO NOW
THE ONLY COUNTIES IN THE DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK FOR KIND CWA LIE JUST
SOUTH OF THAT COMMON DIVIDING LINE THAT IT THE I 70 CORRIDOR.
BASICALLY KEEPING HIGHER CHANCE POPS ACROSS THIS AREA TO THE SOUTH
AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO ZERO POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES.
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THE FRONT MAY SAG FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH FOR A
LULL IN THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT...BUT WILL KEEP SOME SMALL/WEAK
CHANCES FOR POPS GOING SUNDAY NIGHT IN CASE THE FRONT ENDS UP MORE
STATIONARY.
APPEARS THE FRONT WILL BEGIN DRIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH DURING
MONDAY AND TUESDAY SO WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. ALSO BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES...APPEARS TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL BE GETTING
INTO THAT UNCOMFORTABLE RANGE AGAIN WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S
(OR HIGHER EVEN?) POSSIBLE...AND HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST USA DURING
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM...SETTING UP A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA. BY NEXT WEEKEND A TROUGH MAY DIG INTO THE AREA.
THIS FLOW WILL ALLOW A SURFACE FRONT TO STALL OUT ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA THROUGH THE EXTENDED. AS UPPER WAVES INTERACT WITH THE
FRONT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. MORE
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...WITH SOME COOLER CONDITIONS PERHAPS ARRIVING FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 201800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1243 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY
VFR AFTERWARD WITH POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
STUBBORN MVFR DECK WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SITES FOR A WHILE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT IT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON.
A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 05Z OR SO
TONIGHT...THEN MORE CONVECTION MAY ARRIVE INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES IN. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND COVERAGE SO
CONTINUED JUST A VCTS MENTION AS IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...50
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
650 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
COLD FRONT MAKING RAPID PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE AIRMASS
BECOMING MORE STABLE BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT THE STORMS TO
TRANSITION TO A BIG WIND THREAT AS THEY PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST BUT
FOR CENTRAL IOWA...STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY 02Z WITH CLEARING
SKIES ACROSS THE EAST BY 03Z. THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT WILL BE
QUIET.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
FORECAST PROBLEM FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA. AT
20Z THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM OMAHA TO
ATLANTIC THEN NORTHEAST TO FORT DODGE TO FOREST CITY. THE MAIN
AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH
WHERE IT HAS BEEN SUNNY ALL DAY AND HAS BEEN ABLE TO REALLY
DESTABILIZE. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS AN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT WITH
5000-6000 CAPES ACROSS THE AREAS WEST OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF I-80.
ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES TO THIS AREA THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD RAPIDLY
DEVELOP AND BECOME SEVERE. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE DES
MOINES METRO AREA WILL BE ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE DEVELOPMENT
SO BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z WE SHOULD SEE STORMS BLOW UP. STRONG LOW
LEVEL SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR ROBUST
UPDRAFTS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES. LARGE HAIL WILL
ALSO BE A THREAT. THE STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A WIND
THREAT AS WELL BUT THAT MAY BE EAST/SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
THE STORMS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 06Z HOWEVER THE HRRR IS
INDICATING A SECONDARY LINE DEVELOPING ALONG THE 850 FRONT AND
PUSHING SOUTH BEFORE STALLING NEAR THE IA/MO BORDER. IF THIS
HAPPENS SOUTHERN IOWA WILL BE GETTING SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THAT SECOND SHOT OF RAINFALL SO
I HAVE GRIDS CLEARING AFTER 06Z.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY ON SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SOUTH OF IOWA IN THE MORNING. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL STRENGTHEN A
SURFACE LOW IN THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW LIFTING A WARM
FRONT NORTH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
NEAR THE FRONT LATE IN THE DAY WITH CONVECTION BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. INSTABILITY AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST MONDAY.
WARM FRONT LOOKS TO SETUP ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI ON
TUESDAY...GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTH AND PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IS THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME FOR
PRECIPITATION.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD FESTER THROUGH THE DAY AIDED BY MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW AND NEARBY FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WITH WEST AND NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW...MULTIPLE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND A SURFACE FRONT SUPPORTING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...21/00Z
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
COLD FRONT PUSHING RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS TAF LOCATIONS WITH
CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT STORMS TO CLEAR KOTM BY 01Z WITH
VFR CONDITIONS BY 02Z. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF FORECAST WITH SFC WIND SWITCHING AROUND TO
THE SOUTH AFT 16Z.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...FAB
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...ANGLE
AVIATION...FAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
346 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
FORECAST PROBLEM FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA. AT
20Z THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM OMAHA TO
ATLANTIC THEN NORTHEAST TO FORT DODGE TO FOREST CITY. THE MAIN
AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH
WHERE IT HAS BEEN SUNNY ALL DAY AND HAS BEEN ABLE TO REALLY
DESTABILIZE. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS AN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT WITH
5000-6000 CAPES ACROSS THE AREAS WEST OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF I-80.
ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES TO THIS AREA THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD RAPIDLY
DEVELOP AND BECOME SEVERE. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE DES
MOINES METRO AREA WILL BE ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE DEVELOPMENT
SO BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z WE SHOULD SEE STORMS BLOW UP. STRONG LOW
LEVEL SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR ROBUST
UPDRAFTS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES. LARGE HAIL WILL
ALSO BE A THREAT. THE STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A WIND
THREAT AS WELL BUT THAT MAY BE EAST/SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
THE STORMS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 06Z HOWEVER THE HRRR IS
INDICATING A SECONDARY LINE DEVELOPING ALONG THE 850 FRONT AND
PUSHING SOUTH BEFORE STALLING NEAR THE IA/MO BORDER. IF THIS
HAPPENS SOUTHERN IOWA WILL BE GETTING SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THAT SECOND SHOT OF RAINFALL SO
I HAVE GRIDS CLEARING AFTER 06Z.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY ON SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SOUTH OF IOWA IN THE MORNING. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL STRENGTHEN A
SURFACE LOW IN THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW LIFTING A WARM
FRONT NORTH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
NEAR THE FRONT LATE IN THE DAY WITH CONVECTION BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. INSTABILITY AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST MONDAY.
WARM FRONT LOOKS TO SETUP ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI ON
TUESDAY...GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTH AND PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IS THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME FOR
PRECIPITATION.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD FESTER THROUGH THE DAY AIDED BY MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW AND NEARBY FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WITH WEST AND NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW...MULTIPLE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND A SURFACE FRONT SUPPORTING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...20/18Z
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM ROUGHLY KEST SW TO KOFK AT 18Z AND WILL
PUSH SE THROUGH 06Z..STALLING AROUND THE IA/MO BORDER.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AFFECTING KALO THROUGH 23Z KDSM THROUGH 00Z AND KOTM
THROUGH 06Z. MVFR COND CAN BE EXPECTED INVOF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DUE TO CIGS PRIMARILY BUT VSBYS WILL DROP AS WELL IN HEAVY
RAINFALL. SFC FLOW WILL BECOME 35015KT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT THEN DIMINISH WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED AFT 02Z.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...ANGLE
AVIATION...FAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
120 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
THE FORECAST REMAINS VERY DIFFICULT TODAY. MORNING THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE LAID OUT NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA. WE REMAIN
VERY UNSTABLE ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA WITH THE BEST FORCING AT THE
PRESENT TIME ACROSS EASTERN IOWA. THERE IS ALSO AN AREA OF BETTER
THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS EASTERN IOWA WHICH IS LIKELY WHY THE
STRONGER STORMS ARE SUSTAINED ACROSS THAT AREA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN AREAS WHERE MORNING CONVECTION HAS ALREADY OCCURRED.
THE STORMS ARE MORE ELEVATED AND NOT TAPPING INTO THE BETTER LOW
LEVEL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY AND THUS STORMS THERE ARE BENIGN.
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN IOWA IS THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN AT THIS
POINT IN TIME. THIS AREA REMAINS IN A RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE AREA
AND HAS BEEN HEATING UP AND DESTABILIZING ALL DAY. AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES...STORMS WILL BECOME MORE SURFACE BASED AND SHOULD TAP
THE BETTER LOW LEVEL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THIS IS WHERE STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPLODE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE HRRR SEEMS TO DEVELOP
ADDITIONAL STORMS ALONG THE 850MB BOUNDARY LATER THIS EVENING AND
DROP IT SOUTH ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER FOR A SECOND ROUND OF STORMS
AND ESPECIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. NOT SURE IF I BUY THIS SCENARIO BUT
SOUTHERN IA WILL BE UNDER THE GUN ANYWAY FOR PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
REASONS. SHOULD BE AN ACTIVE FEW HOURS THIS LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
COMPLEX CONVECTIVE SCENARIO TODAY WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. SYNOPTICALLY...WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL COVER MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY BEFORE A COOL
FRONT SURGES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...PROGRESSING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THIS
STRAIGHTFORWARD SCENARIO IS COMPLICATED BY A SEVERE MCS/BOW ECHO
ROCKETING EASTWARD FROM SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND
FAR NORTHWEST IOWA AT THIS HOUR. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THIS MCS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ALONG THE
IOWA/MINNESOTA BORDER...BUT STILL PRODUCE RAINFALL AND LEAVE BEHIND
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD SAG SOUTHWARD BEFORE STALLING
SOMEWHERE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IOWA. THIS BOUNDARY...AND
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING CAUSED BY THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE ANVIL
CLOUDS THROWN OFF BY THIS MCS...WILL CREATE MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES
FOR FOCUS MECHANISMS ALONG WITH THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY MOVING IN
LATER TODAY AS DAYTIME HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION OCCUR. IN OTHER
WORDS...WHEN THUNDERSTORMS BREAK OUT AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IT IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN WHERE INITIATION WILL OCCUR AS
IT WILL LIKELY BE DEPENDENT ON THE AFTER EFFECTS OF THE MORNING
CONVECTION. AT ANY RATE...THIS INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR SOMEWHERE IN
CENTRAL IOWA WITH STORMS THEN DEVELOPING GENERALLY TOWARD THE EAST
AND SOUTHEAST AS THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THERE WILL BE A PRONOUNCED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THESE LATE DAY
STORMS AS WELL OUTLINED IN CURRENT SPC PRODUCTS. THERE IS ALSO SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL BE ABLE TO LINGER OR
DEVELOP IN THE LATE MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS...AFTER THE DEPARTURE
OF THE EARLY MORNING MCS AND BEFORE AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT...AND
HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD BUT WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE. OTHER THAN STORM/PRECIP TRENDS AND POTENTIAL FOR
RESULTING SEVERE WEATHER...OTHER FORECAST FIELDS ARE BENIGN AND
UNEVENTFUL TODAY.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY ACROSS OUR CWA AS A SFC HIGH WILL BE
CENTERED OVER OUR CWA DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. MID TO UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS SHOULD BE PRESENT AS MODELS TRACKING AN IMPULSE WHICH
CORRECTLY TRACES BACK TO THE PACIFIC COAST IN INITIALIZATION.
SPEAKING OF INITIALIZATION...NAM NOT HANDLING SFC DWPTS VERY WELL
FROM SOURCE REGION. NAM ABOUT 5 OR SO DEGREES TOO MOIST. SHOULDN/T
HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WX AND DISCREPANCIES RESOLVE
THEMSELVES BETTER FOR MONDAY/S SYSTEM.
GFS AND NAM IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PICKING UP ON AN SFC LOW THAT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA ON MONDAY. THERE WILL
BE AN ATTENDANT BOUNDARY DRAPING FROM KALO THROUGH KDSM AT AROUND
00Z TUE. SVR WX MUST BE CONSIDERED NEAR THIS BOUNDARY DURING PEAK
HEATING HOURS AS 0-6KM MUCAPE VALUES EASILY EXCEED 2000 J/KG.
OVERALL SVR SETUP ON THE MARGINAL SIDE. PWATS OF 1.25 TO 1.5 AHEAD
OF THIS BOUNDARY GOOD BUT NOT GREAT...AS IS 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 40
TO 45KTS WITH THE BOUNDARY. TODAY/S SVR WX ENV DEFINITELY MORE
IMPRESSIVE. IN TRUE FASHION...NAM HAS CAP BEING EASILY BROKEN
WHEREAS THE GFS HOLDS THE CAP. AS OF NOW...LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH
FORCING/LIFT PRESENT TO PUNCH THROUGH CAP.
MODELS COME INTO LINE WITH BRINGING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN MN
ON TUESDAY...PLACING THE DMX CWA IN N/NE FLOW. THIS IS A BIT OF A
SHIFT FROM MODEL OUTPUT A FEW DAYS AGO WHERE THE CWA WAS IN STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW. CURRENT SOLUTION LOOKS GOOD SO HAVE DROPPED TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES AND DROPPED POPS.
FOR WEDNESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH QUICKLY MOVES TOWARDS
THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON PICKING UP ON A
THETA-E BOUNDARY SLOWLY PROPAGATING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN IA.
PWATS ARE A SOLID +1 TO +2 STD DEV WITH THIS FEATURE. FOR THE
AFTERNOON...THE GFS HAS PWATS SOUTH OF I-80 IN THE 2 TO 2.25 INCH
RANGE. UPWARD MOISTURE FLUX SETUP VERY IMPRESSIVE AS 0-6KM MUCAPE
OVER 1000 J/KG AND 0-6KM MIXING RATIOS OVER 8 G/KG. VERY SATURATED
PROFILE...ESPECIALLY EVIDENT ON KOTM FCST SOUNDING...COULD LEAD TO
HEAVY RAIN. WITH PWATS SO HIGH...EXPECTING LITTLE TO NO SVR WX
THREAT...BUT SIGNIFICANT RAIN POSSIBLE WED INTO THU AM.
BEYOND THIS SYSTEM...MODELS BECOME VERY INCONSISTENT. TRENDS ARE
COOLER AND DRIER...WITH HIGHS DROPPING BACK INTO THE MID 70S TO
LOW 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...20/18Z
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM ROUGHLY KEST SW TO KOFK AT 18Z AND WILL
PUSH SE THROUGH 06Z..STALLING AROUND THE IA/MO BORDER.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AFFECTING KALO THROUGH 23Z KDSM THROUGH 00Z AND KOTM
THROUGH 06Z. MVFR COND CAN BE EXPECTED INVOF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DUE TO CIGS PRIMARILY BUT VSBYS WILL DROP AS WELL IN HEAVY
RAINFALL. SFC FLOW WILL BECOME 35015KT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT THEN DIMINISH WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED AFT 02Z.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...FAB
SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...KOTENBERG
AVIATION...FAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1030 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS AS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. NEAR THE SURFACE, A NEAR STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CONUS TODAY WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING EAST
OVER NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON WHILE A STRONGER WAVE WAS MOVING OVER
MONTANA. A COOL FRONT WAS SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTH FROM EASTERN COLORADO
INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE SOUTH A LITTLE MORE EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE
BECOMING STATIONARY AND THEN SLOWLY LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH LATER
TONIGHT. THE RAP AND HRRR MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION BREAKING
OUT ALONG THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE ARE THE ONLY MODELS
THAT DO SO AS THE HIRES ARW/NMM MODELS AS WELL AS THE OPERATIONAL
NAM AND GFS KEEP THINGS DRY. THE MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING
A TENDENCY FOR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES TO BE REACHED IN CENTRAL
KANSAS WHICH WOULD EXPLAIN THE CONVECTION. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY IN CENTRAL KANSAS. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE
FAIRLY MILD IN THE MID 60S ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER TO THE LOWER
70S IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON SUNDAY BUT SHOULD NOT HAVE
QUITE THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT AS TODAY. IN SPITE OF THIS, WARMER AIR
IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BE SPREADING OUT OF THE WEST AS THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WEST MOVES TOWARD THE PLAINS.
HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE VERY WARM...IN THE 95-100 DEGREE RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE SHIFTING WESTWARD INTO THE
ROCKIES BY THURSDAY AND THEN AMPLIFYING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL GENERALLY BE A HOT PATTERN,
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. WEAK COLD FRONTS MAY GET
CLOSE ENOUGH TO WESTERN KANSAS LATE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY,
PARTICULARLY NEAR INTERSTATE 70 SO THAT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. BUT THESE STORMS OUGHT TO BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED; AND
GIVEN THE WEAK WINDS AT UPPER LEVELS, WILL PROBABLY NOT BE
SEVERE OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST. IF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE RETROGRADES BACK OVER UTAH BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
THE MODELS SUGGEST, THEN HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD DROP BACK INTO
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S STARTING FRIDAY, ALONG WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES. BUT UNTIL THEN, EXPECT
HIGHS TO BE IN THE 90S TO POSSIBLY NEAR 100F, WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 558 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT NEAR KHYS AND KGCK, THEN MOVE
BACK NORTH TOWARDS DAWN. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. THERE COULD BE
SOME LOWER STRATUS AND FOG NEAR KHYS AFTER 09Z. THERE IS ALSO
A SMALL CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IN THE KHYS AREA THIS EVENING, BUT TOO LOW OF CONFIDENCE TO PUT
INTO THE TAF.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 68 98 71 96 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 68 100 70 101 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 67 99 69 100 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 69 98 69 97 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 69 99 73 101 / 0 0 0 10
P28 72 96 73 96 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...KRUSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
603 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CONUS TODAY WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING EAST
OVER NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON WHILE A STRONGER WAVE WAS MOVING OVER
MONTANA. A COOL FRONT WAS SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTH FROM EASTERN COLORADO
INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE SOUTH A LITTLE MORE EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE
BECOMING STATIONARY AND THEN SLOWLY LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH LATER
TONIGHT. THE RAP AND HRRR MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION BREAKING
OUT ALONG THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE ARE THE ONLY MODELS
THAT DO SO AS THE HIRES ARW/NMM MODELS AS WELL AS THE OPERATIONAL
NAM AND GFS KEEP THINGS DRY. THE MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING
A TENDENCY FOR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES TO BE REACHED IN CENTRAL
KANSAS WHICH WOULD EXPLAIN THE CONVECTION. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY IN CENTRAL KANSAS. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE
FAIRLY MILD IN THE MID 60S ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER TO THE LOWER
70S IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON SUNDAY BUT SHOULD NOT HAVE
QUITE THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT AS TODAY. IN SPITE OF THIS, WARMER AIR
IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BE SPREADING OUT OF THE WEST AS THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WEST MOVES TOWARD THE PLAINS.
HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE VERY WARM...IN THE 95-100 DEGREE RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE SHIFTING WESTWARD INTO THE
ROCKIES BY THURSDAY AND THEN AMPLIFYING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL GENERALLY BE A HOT PATTERN,
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. WEAK COLD FRONTS MAY GET
CLOSE ENOUGH TO WESTERN KANSAS LATE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY,
PARTICULARLY NEAR INTERSTATE 70 SO THAT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. BUT THESE STORMS OUGHT TO BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED; AND
GIVEN THE WEAK WINDS AT UPPER LEVELS, WILL PROBABLY NOT BE
SEVERE OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST. IF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE RETROGRADES BACK OVER UTAH BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
THE MODELS SUGGEST, THEN HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD DROP BACK INTO
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S STARTING FRIDAY, ALONG WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES. BUT UNTIL THEN, EXPECT
HIGHS TO BE IN THE 90S TO POSSIBLY NEAR 100F, WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 558 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT NEAR KHYS AND KGCK, THEN MOVE
BACK NORTH TOWARDS DAWN. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. THERE COULD BE
SOME LOWER STRATUS AND FOG NEAR KHYS AFTER 09Z. THERE IS ALSO
A SMALL CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IN THE KHYS AREA THIS EVENING, BUT TOO LOW OF CONFIDENCE TO PUT
INTO THE TAF.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 68 98 71 96 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 68 100 70 101 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 67 99 69 100 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 69 98 69 97 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 69 99 73 101 / 10 10 10 10
P28 72 96 73 96 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...KRUSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
314 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CONUS TODAY WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING EAST
OVER NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON WHILE A STRONGER WAVE WAS MOVING OVER
MONTANA. A COOL FRONT WAS SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTH FROM EASTERN COLORADO
INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE SOUTH A LITTLE MORE EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE
BECOMING STATIONARY AND THEN SLOWLY LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH LATER
TONIGHT. THE RAP AND HRRR MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION BREAKING
OUT ALONG THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE ARE THE ONLY MODELS
THAT DO SO AS THE HIRES ARW/NMM MODELS AS WELL AS THE OPERATIONAL
NAM AND GFS KEEP THINGS DRY. THE MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING
A TENDENCY FOR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES TO BE REACHED IN CENTRAL
KANSAS WHICH WOULD EXPLAIN THE CONVECTION. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY IN CENTRAL KANSAS. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE
FAIRLY MILD IN THE MID 60S ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER TO THE LOWER
70S IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON SUNDAY BUT SHOULD NOT HAVE
QUITE THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT AS TODAY. IN SPITE OF THIS, WARMER AIR
IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BE SPREADING OUT OF THE WEST AS THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WEST MOVES TOWARD THE PLAINS.
HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE VERY WARM...IN THE 95-100 DEGREE RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE SHIFTING WESTWARD INTO THE
ROCKIES BY THURSDAY AND THEN AMPLIFYING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL GENERALLY BE A HOT PATTERN,
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. WEAK COLD FRONTS MAY GET
CLOSE ENOUGH TO WESTERN KANSAS LATE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY,
PARTICULARLY NEAR INTERSTATE 70 SO THAT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. BUT THESE STORMS OUGHT TO BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED; AND
GIVEN THE WEAK WINDS AT UPPER LEVELS, WILL PROBABLY NOT BE
SEVERE OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST. IF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE RETROGRADES BACK OVER UTAH BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
THE MODELS SUGGEST, THEN HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD DROP BACK INTO
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S STARTING FRIDAY, ALONG WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES. BUT UNTIL THEN, EXPECT
HIGHS TO BE IN THE 90S TO POSSIBLY NEAR 100F, WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON BUT THE WINDS AT GARDEN CITY SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. WINDS
AT GARDEN CITY AND HAYS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME NORTHERLY BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES IN. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS AND THEN BEGINS
LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP AROUND HAYS AROUND 21-23Z BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 68 98 71 96 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 68 100 70 101 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 67 99 69 100 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 69 98 69 97 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 69 99 73 101 / 10 10 10 10
P28 72 96 73 96 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...GERARD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1145 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
.DISCUSSION...
19/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS ACRS THE AREA COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.
LITTLE ACTIVITY NOTED ON RADAR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW SHRA
WELL SW OF THE AREA AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. LATEST STLT SHOWS
MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING NE OVER THE AREA...ALONG WITH A FEW
STRATOCU IN THE LOWER LVLS. VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
ALTHOUGH SOME LOW MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP BRIEFLY NEAR DAYBREAK. LOW
CIGS WILL LIFT/DISSIPATE BY MID-MORNING WITH SWLY WINDS AROUND 10
KT OR LESS DURING THE DAY. WITH THE AREA REMAINING UNDER A
WEAKNESS ALOFT AS THE REMNANTS OF BILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION
AND DECENT MOISTURE STILL STREAMING FM SRN/SE TX INTO NRN
LA...WENT AHEAD AND INSERTED VCSH FOR BPT AND AEX DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW WITH ANY ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO ISLTD
FOR MENTION AT THIS TIME. 24
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 919 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015/
UPDATE...DUE TO AREAL FLOODING AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH GOING THROUGH TONIGHT. WHILE RAIN HAS DISSIPATED IN
THE EARLY EVENING...LATEST HRRR HINTS AT SOME DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
SE TEXAS LATE TONIGHT AND EVEN MODEST AMOUNTS COULD POSE SOME
PROBLEMS TONIGHT OVER WATCH AREA.
NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS MOMENT.
AP
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015/
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOWN BY
RADAR MOSAIC FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA...AND THEN EXTENDING FURTHER NORTHEAST. ACTIVITY
FOCUSED WITHIN MOISTURE PLUME LEFT FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL
NOW OVER EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND ON A NORTHEAST TRACK. FLASH
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS
AND WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA. CONVECTION HAS SLIPPED A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND IS NOW KNOCKING ON
THE DOORS OF HARDIN AND TYLER COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY
MONITOR CONVECTION...AND HOPEFULLY IT WILL TREND TOWARD MODEL
GUIDANCE LIMITING ANY ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS THIS
AREA. NONE-THE-LESS...MODELS HAVE BEEN LESS THAN SCHOLAR REGARDING
THE EASTERN EXTENT OF MASS FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH BILL. HAVE
MAINTAINED RESPECTABLE POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS/WEST CENTRAL
LOUISIANA FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
BILL WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NORTHEAST. AREA WILL HOWEVER REMAIN
UNDER A WEAKNESS ALOFT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND SOUTHWEST
CONUS ANTICYCLONE. WITH A MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINING
IN PLACE AND NO CAPPING...SHOULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
THE NEW WEEK WILL SEE AN EASTWARD EXPANSION OF SOUTHWEST CONUS
RIDGE INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL SET UP THE LIKELIHOOD OF LITTLE IF
ANY RAINS...AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES TICKING UPWARD.
MARINE...A LIGHT AND OCCASIONAL MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW CAN BE
EXPECTED AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH BECOMES REESTABLISHED OVER THE
REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN MINIMAL. 23
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 75 90 74 92 / 20 30 10 20
LCH 76 89 76 89 / 20 20 10 20
LFT 76 89 75 90 / 20 20 10 20
BPT 76 89 75 90 / 30 30 10 20
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR LAZ027-030.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
259>262.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
249 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM BILL WILL BRING SHOWERS
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A STRONG SUNDAY COLD FRONT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM SW PA INTO CENTRAL OH IS PROGGED TO DRIFT
SLOWLY SOUTH THIS EVENING. MOISTURE POOLING NEAR THE BOUNDARY AND
A CROSSING SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWER CHANCES TO THE
REGION SOUTH OF I 80. USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND HRRR WITH
THE NAM TRACKING UNREALISTIC SURFACE LOWS ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS
SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL ARE PROGGED TO APPROACH AND
CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. MODELS KEEP THE
HEAVIEST QPF ACROSS WV AND KY AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF PIT...BUT WITH A
PROGGED INCREASE IN THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM NO FLOOD WATCH IS
PLANNED. WILL MENTION LOCALIZED FLOODING IN THE HWO WHERE ANY
TRAINING OF HEAVIER RAIN OCCURS. INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO REMAIN
LIMITED SO ONLY INCLUDED A CHANCE OF THUNDER. THIS SHOULD QUICKLY
EXIT SATURDAY EVENING.
RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE A STRONG COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY. SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY ARE SUFFICIENT FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE STORMS. WILL
MONITOR TRENDS AND INCLUDE IN THE HWO FOR NOW. RIDGING IS PROGGED
FOR LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE LATER MONDAY. GENERALLY FOLLOWED GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS...WITH SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BREAK IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL ARRIVE BY MIDWEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THIS REPRIEVE
WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE RISK
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RAIN AND RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS A
CROSSING DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING
OVER THE REGION...THEN AS THE REMNANT TROPICAL LOW APPROACHES
AND SHUNTS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE. THE BETTER
CHANCE OF PROLONGED DEGRADATION WILL THUS BE OVER PORTS FROM PIT
SOUTHWARD.
.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FURTHER RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY ON SUNDAY WITH PASSAGE OF COLD
FRONT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT TO PARTS
OF THE AREA.
THE HEAVIEST RAINS ARE EXPECTED OVER KENTUCKY/WEST VIRGINIA AND NOT OVER
OHIO/PENNSYLVANIA.
FORECAST CHANGE: THE RAIN SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH
A DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT IN THE PROJECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST.
IT IS ESTIMATED THAT THE MONONGAHELA AND CHEAT BASINS WILL RECEIVE
BETWEEN 1.50 AND 2.00 INCHES. BETWEEN 0.50 AND 0.75 IS EXPECTED
IN THE IMMEDIATE PITTSBURGH AREA WITH LESS THAN 0.50 INCH OVER
THE ALLEGHENY BASIN.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. A SHIFT TO THE NORTH COULD MEAN HIGHER AMOUNTS OF OHIO
AND PENNSYLVANIA.
HEIGHTENED AWARENESS IS NEEDED THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK ON AREA RIVERS.
CURRENTLY NO RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED, BUT STREAMS AND CREEKS COULD
EXPERIENCE FLOODING WHERE THE HEAVY RAINS FALL.
CRESTS ARE EXPECTED ON THE CHEAT RIVER SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AND CRESTS ON THE
MONONGAHELA AND OHIO WILL COME ON MONDAY. PARSONS IS EXPECTED TO CREST
AROUND 8 FEET. GRAYS LANDING IS PROJECTED TO CREST JUST BELOW 15
FEET. PITTSBURGH WILL REMAIN IN POOL THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
07/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
712 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE NRN
CONUS. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE LARGE AREA OF RAIN
THROUGH UPPER MI WAS EXITING THE AREA LEAVING MAINLY JUST PATCHY
LIGHT RAIN OF DRIZZLE OVER THE NORTH AND EAST. ANOTHER TRAILING
SHRTWV OVER NE MN SUPPORTED SCT SHRA FROM THE MN ARROWHEAD INTO WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR. OTHER UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES WERE LOCATED OVER NRN ND
AND SE SASK.
TONIGHT...EXPECT ISOLD/SCT -SHRA INTO THE CWA THIS EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MN SHRTWV THAT SHOULD DIMINISH AND END AFTER
03Z. OTHERWISE...WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION...PATCHY FOG WILL SHOULD DEVELOP. NNW UPSLOPE 10-15 KNOT 950-
900 MB FLOW INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI MAY ALSO SUPPORT SOME DRIZZLE
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
SUN...THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SASK/ND SHRTWVS EARLY OVER THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A WEAK SFC
RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH MAINLY LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING LAKE
BREEZES TO DEVELOP. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES COULD CLIMB
INTO THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE OVER MAINLY THE SRN CWA FROM NEAR IMT-
MNM. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME SHRA/TSRA TO
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE MI BREEZE BOUNDARY. WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY FARTHER NORTH AND SOME MID LEVEL CAPPING NEAR 700
MB...NO AFTERNOON PCPN IS EXPECTED OVER THE REST OF THE CWA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BUT ITS
INFLUENCE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON MONDAY IS ACTUALLY TWO
SEPARATE WAVES AT THIS TIME...ONE OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE
OTHER OVER THE PACIFIC TO THE WEST OF OREGON. THESE TWO WAVES WILL
MERGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TOMORROW AND THEN QUICKLY SHIFT
EAST INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY. A LOW AVERAGING 1000MB WILL SLIDE
NORTHEAST...TRACKING FROM EASTERN WYOMING ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...TO
MINNESOTA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
ON MONDAY NIGHT. MUCH OF THE FORECAST DEPENDS BOTH ON THE TRACK OF
THE SHORTWAVE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ALONG THE WARM FRONT
AHEAD OF THE LOW. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING
ACROSS SOUTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN OR NORTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH THE WARM
FRONT LIKELY LOCATED IN NORTHERN/CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THAT IS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO CONTINUE TO SHOW LIKELY TO DEFINITE POPS SPREADING EAST
INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY MONDAY
EVENING AS THE MAIN FORCING MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE
POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT WILL DETERMINE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL...AS THAT WILL BE THE AREA WHERE THE NOSE OF THE 35-40KT
850MB JET AND INSTABILITY GRADIENT WILL BE LOCATED. WHILE SOME
MODELS DO TRY TO SHIFT IT NORTH INTO OUR AREA...BELIEVE THAT
CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE MCS THAT DEVELOPS UPSTREAM IN MINNESOTA ON
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SUPPRESS THE BOUNDARY FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.
ASSUMING THAT OCCURS...THE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THE GRADIENT SOMEWHERE IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. THINK THE LATEST DAY 3 OUTLOOK FROM SPC HAS A GOOD HANDLE
ON WHERE THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE AND GENERALLY TO THE SOUTH OF
THE U.P.. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT/CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA WHICH IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO
POTENTIAL EXPERIENCE SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WITH THE DYNAMICS OF
THE SYSTEM...IF THE INSTABILITY OR WARM FRONT SHIFTS FARTHER TO THE
NORTH...SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
AS THE LOW DEPARTS ON MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A WEST TO EAST
DIMINISHMENT OF POPS AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE TRENDED
WINDS UP BASED OFF ALL OF THE LATEST RUNS...WITH 925MB WINDS AROUND
35KTS. THAT WIND WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG ON MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE U.P.. THINK THE MAIN AREAS THAT WILL SEE FOG WILL BE
ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE ON MONDAY EVENING AND SHORELINES
ALONG CENTRAL/EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AS THE WINDS TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST AND PUSH THE FOG ONSHORE. WINDS WILL BE DECREASING ON
TUESDAY. THE AREA WILL BE UNDER WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA
FOR TUESDAY AND THEN DEPARTS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE PARENT HIGH MOVES
INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WHILE THE RIDGE IS OVER THE
AREA...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR NORMAL.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY...THROUGH THE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. WITH THE SOURCE REGION...AND THE WARM FRONT SITUATED OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...EXPECT MOISTURE TO BE LIMITED AND WILL ONLY
INCLUDE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS FOR THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE. INSTABILITY
IS ALSO LIMITED AND WILL KEEP VALUES CAPPED AT SLIGHT CHANCES...BUT
WILL NEED TO WATCH DIURNAL HEATING ON THURSDAY...WHICH COULD
INCREASE POTENTIAL SOME.
A WEAK HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE
FIRST PART OF FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO
THE AREA FOR LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WHILE THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD...THE MORE NOTABLE ITEM IS
THE AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND LIKELY CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE
ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLES SUPPORT THAT IDEA...AND EVEN SHOW HINTS OF THAT
TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE TOWARDS THE FOURTH OF JULY. IF THAT SETUP
OCCURS...THE U.P. WOULD EXPERIENCE A COOL AND DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER
FOR THE END OF JUNE AND START OF JULY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 712 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE DRIER
AIR ARRIVES. UNTIL THEN...LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED AT
ALL THE TAF SITES INTO SUN MORNING BEFORE A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
TAKES PLACE SUN AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL
DOMINATE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. WITH WEAK
HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT
OF THE AREA TONIGHT...LIGHTER WINDS WILL FOLLOW FOR THE LAST HALF
THE WEEKEND. THESE LIGHT WINDS...UNDER 20KT...WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THRU THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK SUMMERTIME PRES GRADIENT
SHOULD PREVAIL.
THE RAIN TODAY WILL SUPPORT FOG ACROSS THE LAKE...THAT COULD BE
LOCALLY DENSE. EXPECT THE FOG TO LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO
A LACK OF STRONG ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
420 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE NRN
CONUS. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE LARGE AREA OF RAIN
THROUGH UPPER MI WAS EXITING THE AREA LEAVING MAINLY JUST PATCHY
LIGHT RAIN OF DRIZZLE OVER THE NORTH AND EAST. ANOTHER TRAILING
SHRTWV OVER NE MN SUPPORTED SCT SHRA FROM THE MN ARROWHEAD INTO WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR. OTHER UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES WERE LOCATED OVER NRN ND
AND SE SASK.
TONIGHT...EXPECT ISOLD/SCT -SHRA INTO THE CWA THIS EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MN SHRTWV THAT SHOULD DIMINISH AND END AFTER
03Z. OTHERWISE...WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION...PATCHY FOG WILL SHOULD DEVELOP. NNW UPSLOPE 10-15 KNOT 950-
900 MB FLOW INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI MAY ALSO SUPPORT SOME DRIZZLE
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
SUN...THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SASK/ND SHRTWVS EARLY OVER THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A WEAK SFC
RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH MAINLY LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING LAKE
BREEZES TO DEVELOP. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES COULD CLIMB
INTO THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE OVER MAINLY THE SRN CWA FROM NEAR IMT-
MNM. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME SHRA/TSRA TO
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE MI BREEZE BOUNDARY. WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY FARTHER NORTH AND SOME MID LEVEL CAPPING NEAR 700
MB...NO AFTERNOON PCPN IS EXPECTED OVER THE REST OF THE CWA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BUT ITS
INFLUENCE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON MONDAY IS ACTUALLY TWO
SEPARATE WAVES AT THIS TIME...ONE OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE
OTHER OVER THE PACIFIC TO THE WEST OF OREGON. THESE TWO WAVES WILL
MERGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TOMORROW AND THEN QUICKLY SHIFT
EAST INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY. A LOW AVERAGING 1000MB WILL SLIDE
NORTHEAST...TRACKING FROM EASTERN WYOMING ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...TO
MINNESOTA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
ON MONDAY NIGHT. MUCH OF THE FORECAST DEPENDS BOTH ON THE TRACK OF
THE SHORTWAVE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ALONG THE WARM FRONT
AHEAD OF THE LOW. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING
ACROSS SOUTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN OR NORTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH THE WARM
FRONT LIKELY LOCATED IN NORTHERN/CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THAT IS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO CONTINUE TO SHOW LIKELY TO DEFINITE POPS SPREADING EAST
INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY MONDAY
EVENING AS THE MAIN FORCING MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE
POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT WILL DETERMINE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL...AS THAT WILL BE THE AREA WHERE THE NOSE OF THE 35-40KT
850MB JET AND INSTABILITY GRADIENT WILL BE LOCATED. WHILE SOME
MODELS DO TRY TO SHIFT IT NORTH INTO OUR AREA...BELIEVE THAT
CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE MCS THAT DEVELOPS UPSTREAM IN MINNESOTA ON
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SUPPRESS THE BOUNDARY FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.
ASSUMING THAT OCCURS...THE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THE GRADIENT SOMEWHERE IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. THINK THE LATEST DAY 3 OUTLOOK FROM SPC HAS A GOOD HANDLE
ON WHERE THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE AND GENERALLY TO THE SOUTH OF
THE U.P.. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT/CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA WHICH IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO
POTENTIAL EXPERIENCE SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WITH THE DYNAMICS OF
THE SYSTEM...IF THE INSTABILITY OR WARM FRONT SHIFTS FARTHER TO THE
NORTH...SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
AS THE LOW DEPARTS ON MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A WEST TO EAST
DIMINISHMENT OF POPS AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE TRENDED
WINDS UP BASED OFF ALL OF THE LATEST RUNS...WITH 925MB WINDS AROUND
35KTS. THAT WIND WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG ON MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE U.P.. THINK THE MAIN AREAS THAT WILL SEE FOG WILL BE
ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE ON MONDAY EVENING AND SHORELINES
ALONG CENTRAL/EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AS THE WINDS TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST AND PUSH THE FOG ONSHORE. WINDS WILL BE DECREASING ON
TUESDAY. THE AREA WILL BE UNDER WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA
FOR TUESDAY AND THEN DEPARTS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE PARENT HIGH MOVES
INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WHILE THE RIDGE IS OVER THE
AREA...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR NORMAL.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY...THROUGH THE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. WITH THE SOURCE REGION...AND THE WARM FRONT SITUATED OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...EXPECT MOISTURE TO BE LIMITED AND WILL ONLY
INCLUDE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS FOR THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE. INSTABILITY
IS ALSO LIMITED AND WILL KEEP VALUES CAPPED AT SLIGHT CHANCES...BUT
WILL NEED TO WATCH DIURNAL HEATING ON THURSDAY...WHICH COULD
INCREASE POTENTIAL SOME.
A WEAK HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE
FIRST PART OF FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO
THE AREA FOR LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WHILE THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD...THE MORE NOTABLE ITEM IS
THE AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND LIKELY CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE
ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLES SUPPORT THAT IDEA...AND EVEN SHOW HINTS OF THAT
TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE TOWARDS THE FOURTH OF JULY. IF THAT SETUP
OCCURS...THE U.P. WOULD EXPERIENCE A COOL AND DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER
FOR THE END OF JUNE AND START OF JULY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
RAIN THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF TOWARD EVENING...BUT
LOW LEVEL MOISTENING WILL RESULT IN CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR THIS
AFTERNOON AND LIKELY TO IFR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER WHETHER CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO
LIFR/VLIFR. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE BY MID TO LATE SUN MORNING
WITH DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL
DOMINATE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. WITH WEAK
HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT
OF THE AREA TONIGHT...LIGHTER WINDS WILL FOLLOW FOR THE LAST HALF
THE WEEKEND. THESE LIGHT WINDS...UNDER 20KT...WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THRU THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK SUMMERTIME PRES GRADIENT
SHOULD PREVAIL.
THE RAIN TODAY WILL SUPPORT FOG ACROSS THE LAKE...THAT COULD BE
LOCALLY DENSE. EXPECT THE FOG TO LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO
A LACK OF STRONG ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1248 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
.AVIATION...
OBSERVATIONS LEADING UP TO FORECAST ISSUANCE SHOWED IMPROVEMENT IN
CEILING THROUGH THE DTW CORRIDOR WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STRATUS WILL LIFT AND CHANGE INTO A VFR
CUMULUS CEILING IN THAT AREA UNDER A MIX OF HIGH CLOUDS LEFT OVER
FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION THAT WILL COVER THE REST OF THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS. VFR WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING LEAVING
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AS THE MAIN AVIATION
CONCERN. AT THIS POINT...STORMS COULD MOVE IN FROM THE AREA OF
WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS AS PART OF NEW AFTERNOON ACTIVITY THERE...OR
DEVELOP OVERHEAD AS HUMIDITY INCREASES FURTHER OVER SE MICHIGAN
DURING THE NIGHT. BOTH SITUATIONS ARE LOOSELY TIMED AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH COVERAGE REQUIRING REFINEMENT BEFORE ADDITION TO THE FORECAST.
AFTER THAT...BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR CEILING IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE
WARM/HUMID AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SETTLING INTO LOWER MICHIGAN
SUNDAY MORNING.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* MEDIUM POTENTIAL FOR CEILING OF 5000 FEET OR LESS TODAY AND SUNDAY
MORNING.
* LOW POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER APPROXIMATELY 03Z THROUGH
TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1107 AM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
UPDATE...
EARLIER UPDATE NUDGED CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTHWARD TOWARD M-59
CORRIDOR BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. WEAK ACTIVITY CONTINUES DUE TO
ADVECTIVE PROCESSES WITHIN THE MOISTURE GRADIENT ON THE NORTHWEST
FLANK OF TROPICAL REMNANTS. DISSIPATION OVER OUR AREA WILL OCCUR
DUE TO VEERING LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW AS THE REMNANTS MOVE
EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW THE MID LEVEL THETA-E TROUGH THAT IS
OVER CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN TO SLIDE MORE TOWARD THE OHIO BORDER.
LOWER CLOUDS MAY BE A BIT MORE STUBBORN THAN THE SHOWERS BUT
EXPECT SOME MODEST IMPROVEMENT IN A COMBINATION OF DISSIPATING
STRATUS AND REDEVELOPMENT OF CUMULUS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 352 AM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
VERY DRY COLUMN THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE TROPOSPHERE IS ENTRENCHED
OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN PER 00Z DTX RAOB. LOWEST 6KFT OR SO CAN BE
EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SATURATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AS SHARP THETA-E GRADIENT LIFTS INTO THE AREA AS TROPICAL
REMNANTS LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. A LOW COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS DISPLACED NORTHWARD FROM CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS NOTED ON
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. 00Z NWP REMAIN INSISTENT
THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE, AND 05Z HRRR REMAINS
BULLISH AT PRESS TIME. THE PRIMARY FORCING APPEARS TO BE WEAK THETA-
E ADVECTION AND A MODEST COMPONENT OF MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION. AT
0730Z SHOWERS WERE NOTED INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA, WARRANTING THE ADVERTISED LOW CHC POP SOUTH OF THE METRO
AREA THROUGH MID MORNING. GREATER SENSIBLE WX IMPACT WILL LIKELY BE
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS, WHICH WILL AGGRESSIVELY LIFT INTO THE SOUTH OF M59
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE DIURNAL HEATING ALLOWS FOR SOME BREAKS BY
MID AFTERNOON. THETA-E TROUGH WILL HOLD FOR MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS
THE NORTH, ENSURING DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES. NO COMPLAINTS WITH 00Z TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WHICH
SUGGESTS 77-80F AREAWIDE, WARMEST IN THE SAGINAW VALLEY.
FORECAST BECOMES MORE NUANCED LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT.
CORE OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES AND ATTENDANT HEIGHT FALLS
WILL PUSH INTO LOWER MICHIGAN FROM THE WEST. REMNANTS OF PERHAPS THE
CLEANEST EML OF THE SEASON WILL FOLD ACROSS THE CWA AFTER 21Z WITH A
HEALTHY PLUME OF DEEP 7C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES POSSIBLE DEPENDING
ON MODULATION BY UPSTREAM CONVECTION BEFORE IT ADVECTS INTO THE
AREA. REMNANTS OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION MAY HOLD TOGETHER ALONG THE
LEAD EDGE OF THE HIGHER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, WARRANTING CHC POPS
AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING. SEVERE THREAT DURING THIS TIME WILL REMAIN
WELL UPSTREAM AND MOST LIKELY CONFINED TO THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF THE
INSTABILITY GRADIENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE/UPPER MS VALLEY.
LOCALLY, LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASINGLY VEERED
WIND PROFILE AND POTENTIAL MODERATE ELEVATED NOCTURNAL
DESTABILIZATION AS THE LOWER PORTION OF THE COLUMN WARMS BENEATH
STEEPER LAPSE RATES. BULK SHEAR WITHIN THE ELEVATED/EFFECTIVE LAYER
SHOULD EASILY HOLD IN THE 35KT RANGE, SO AT LEAST A LOWER END THREAT
FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL EXISTS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
LONG TERM... SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
QUASI-ZONAL LOW AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL WEST/WNW FLOW WILL LARGELY
DICTATE CONDITIONS LOCALLY RIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD.
FLOW RIPE WITH WEAK IMPULSES AND ASSOCIATED UPPER JET MAXIMA OF
CENTRAL PACIFIC ORIGIN WILL MAINTAIN AN INTERMITTENTLY ACTIVE
STRETCH OF WEATHER THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS PATTERN WILL
TEND TO FAVOR A GENERALLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURE REGIME GIVEN
LIMITED DAY TO DAY VARIATION IN THE GOVERNING THICKNESS/HEIGHT FIELD
AND LACK OF GREATER MEAN AMPLITUDE.
ILL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE PROGRESSING THROUGH LOWER
MICHIGAN EARLY SUNDAY...ANCHORED WITHIN A NARROW REGION OF LEFT EXIT
REGION UPPER JET DYNAMICS. ATTENDANT SURFACE WAVE/COLD FRONTAL
STRUCTURE WILL TRAIL THE LEAD HEIGHT FALLS...THE MOST FAVORED
FRONTAL TIMING LOCALLY PER RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE COMMENCING DURING
THE MIDDAY PERIOD. WHILE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE PLUME WILL EXIT
EASTWARD BY MID MORNING...MOISTURE QUALITY THROUGH 700 MB REMAINS
RESPECTABLE WITH GREATER POST-FRONTAL DRY AIR ADVECTION NOT TAKING A
STRONGER HOLD UNTIL MID-LATE AFTERNOON. THE OVERALL FRONTAL TIMING
AND LIMITED ENSUING COLD AIR ADVECTION INITIALLY WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO
PUSH 80F/LOWER 80S. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEPER MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL PROVIDE A MODEST DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. THIS WILL
LEAVE A WINDOW FOR SOME DEGREE OF RENEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE DAYLIGHT PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR A COMBINATION OF FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE AND MID LEVEL ASCENT ACCOMPANYING FAVORABLE UPPER JET
FORCING/HEIGHT FALLS TO CAPITALIZE ON DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION.
BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY WITH THE REGION BETWEEN MID LEVEL WAVES AND UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING. NEXT INBOUND SHORTWAVE WILL ELICIT
A MORE PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL RESPONSE RELATIVE TO EARLIER IMPULSES...
A PERIOD OF GREATER SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS EMERGING AS THE SYSTEM
LIFTS OUT OF THE PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO EJECT
NORTHEAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...REACHING NORTHERN LAKE HURON
BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. STEADY INCREASE IN LOW-MID LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION LOCALLY THROUGHOUT MONDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
STRENGTHENS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS SYSTEM. ACCOMPANYING UPTICK IN
MOISTURE TRANSPORT APPEARS TO LAG IN TIMING...INITIAL PERIOD OF
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ON MONDAY AND ANY ENSUING
DESTABILIZATION LACKING DEPTH TO SUPPORT GREATER CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL PRIOR TO 21Z. WILL LEAN THE FORECAST DRIER ACCORDINGLY
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY CENTERED ON THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S.
STRONGEST PRE-FRONTAL FORCING WILL TEND TO ARC FROM NORTHERN
WISCONSIN BACK THROUGH CHICAGO BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...POSITIONING OF
THE STRONGEST 850 MB FLOW FAVORING CONVECTIVE EXPANSION TOWARD THE
EAST/NORTHEAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL LEAVE AT LEAST
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA VULNERABLE TO ANY LEAD
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE INCREASING PRE-FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE FOCUSED JUST UPSTREAM. POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR
GREATER UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A MORE SIZABLE/SEVERE MCS ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN MONDAY EVENING...PARTICULARLY SHOULD THE TIMING ALLOW FOR
GREATER DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM. SOLID WIND
FIELD IN PLACE TO SUPPORT GREATER CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION...
QUESTION AGAIN CENTERS ON THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. AS NOTED IN
THE LATEST SPC DAY3 OUTLOOK...ECMWF NOT NEARLY AS ROBUST RELATIVE TO
THE GFS/NAM WITH EITHER THE DYNAMICS OR THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...
SO PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY YET IN DEFINING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL/
MAGNITUDE WITHIN THIS SETUP.
MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS ALL MARINE AREAS TODAY AS WEAKENING HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. COLD FRONT TRACKING ACROSS THE
REGION WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
MODEST WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISH SUNDAY EVENING AS THE NEXT
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....BT
UPDATE.......BT
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......MR
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1107 AM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
.UPDATE...
EARLIER UPDATE NUDGED CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTHWARD TOWARD M-59
CORRIDOR BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. WEAK ACTIVITY CONTINUES DUE TO
ADVECTIVE PROCESSES WITHIN THE MOISTURE GRADIENT ON THE NORTHWEST
FLANK OF TROPICAL REMNANTS. DISSIPATION OVER OUR AREA WILL OCCUR
DUE TO VEERING LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW AS THE REMNANTS MOVE
EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW THE MID LEVEL THETA-E TROUGH THAT IS
OVER CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN TO SLIDE MORE TOWARD THE OHIO BORDER.
LOWER CLOUDS MAY BE A BIT MORE STUBBORN THAN THE SHOWERS BUT
EXPECT SOME MODEST IMPROVEMENT IN A COMBINATION OF DISSIPATING
STRATUS AND REDEVELOPMENT OF CUMULUS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 550 AM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
PARTIAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS BLOSSOMED OVER NORTHERN IN/OH EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WILL POTENTIALLY BRING A PASSING SHOWER TO THE IMMEDIATE
DETROIT TAF SITES THROUGH 15Z. BIGGER AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE
PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS THAT WILL HOLD FIRM WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON
ONCE THEY ARRIVE NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER FORECAST ISSUANCE TIME.
DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD ALLOW SOME BREAKS TO DEVELOP BUT EXPECT
CEILING TO PERSIST REGARDLESS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER FROM NE
THIS MORNING TO SSE TONIGHT. POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT AS MORE UNSTABLE AIR SPREADS INTO SE MICHIGAN BUT CONFIDENCE
IN BOTH DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE REMAINS ON THE LOW END ATTM. BEST
CHANCE WOULD BE ROUGHLY 03-09Z.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIG AOB 5KFT
* LOW CONFIDENCE THAT A TSTORM WILL IMPACT KDTW AIRSPACE AFTER
APPROX 03Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 352 AM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
VERY DRY COLUMN THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE TROPOSPHERE IS ENTRENCHED
OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN PER 00Z DTX RAOB. LOWEST 6KFT OR SO CAN BE
EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SATURATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AS SHARP THETA-E GRADIENT LIFTS INTO THE AREA AS TROPICAL
REMNANTS LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. A LOW COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS DISPLACED NORTHWARD FROM CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS NOTED ON
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. 00Z NWP REMAIN INSISTENT
THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE, AND 05Z HRRR REMAINS
BULLISH AT PRESS TIME. THE PRIMARY FORCING APPEARS TO BE WEAK THETA-
E ADVECTION AND A MODEST COMPONENT OF MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION. AT
0730Z SHOWERS WERE NOTED INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA, WARRANTING THE ADVERTISED LOW CHC POP SOUTH OF THE METRO
AREA THROUGH MID MORNING. GREATER SENSIBLE WX IMPACT WILL LIKELY BE
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS, WHICH WILL AGGRESSIVELY LIFT INTO THE SOUTH OF M59
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE DIURNAL HEATING ALLOWS FOR SOME BREAKS BY
MID AFTERNOON. THETA-E TROUGH WILL HOLD FOR MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS
THE NORTH, ENSURING DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES. NO COMPLAINTS WITH 00Z TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WHICH
SUGGESTS 77-80F AREAWIDE, WARMEST IN THE SAGINAW VALLEY.
FORECAST BECOMES MORE NUANCED LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT.
CORE OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES AND ATTENDANT HEIGHT FALLS
WILL PUSH INTO LOWER MICHIGAN FROM THE WEST. REMNANTS OF PERHAPS THE
CLEANEST EML OF THE SEASON WILL FOLD ACROSS THE CWA AFTER 21Z WITH A
HEALTHY PLUME OF DEEP 7C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES POSSIBLE DEPENDING
ON MODULATION BY UPSTREAM CONVECTION BEFORE IT ADVECTS INTO THE
AREA. REMNANTS OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION MAY HOLD TOGETHER ALONG THE
LEAD EDGE OF THE HIGHER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, WARRANTING CHC POPS
AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING. SEVERE THREAT DURING THIS TIME WILL REMAIN
WELL UPSTREAM AND MOST LIKELY CONFINED TO THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF THE
INSTABILITY GRADIENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE/UPPER MS VALLEY.
LOCALLY, LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASINGLY VEERED
WIND PROFILE AND POTENTIAL MODERATE ELEVATED NOCTURNAL
DESTABILIZATION AS THE LOWER PORTION OF THE COLUMN WARMS BENEATH
STEEPER LAPSE RATES. BULK SHEAR WITHIN THE ELEVATED/EFFECTIVE LAYER
SHOULD EASILY HOLD IN THE 35KT RANGE, SO AT LEAST A LOWER END THREAT
FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL EXISTS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
LONG TERM... SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
QUASI-ZONAL LOW AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL WEST/WNW FLOW WILL LARGELY
DICTATE CONDITIONS LOCALLY RIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD.
FLOW RIPE WITH WEAK IMPULSES AND ASSOCIATED UPPER JET MAXIMA OF
CENTRAL PACIFIC ORIGIN WILL MAINTAIN AN INTERMITTENTLY ACTIVE
STRETCH OF WEATHER THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS PATTERN WILL
TEND TO FAVOR A GENERALLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURE REGIME GIVEN
LIMITED DAY TO DAY VARIATION IN THE GOVERNING THICKNESS/HEIGHT FIELD
AND LACK OF GREATER MEAN AMPLITUDE.
ILL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE PROGRESSING THROUGH LOWER
MICHIGAN EARLY SUNDAY...ANCHORED WITHIN A NARROW REGION OF LEFT EXIT
REGION UPPER JET DYNAMICS. ATTENDANT SURFACE WAVE/COLD FRONTAL
STRUCTURE WILL TRAIL THE LEAD HEIGHT FALLS...THE MOST FAVORED
FRONTAL TIMING LOCALLY PER RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE COMMENCING DURING
THE MIDDAY PERIOD. WHILE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE PLUME WILL EXIT
EASTWARD BY MID MORNING...MOISTURE QUALITY THROUGH 700 MB REMAINS
RESPECTABLE WITH GREATER POST-FRONTAL DRY AIR ADVECTION NOT TAKING A
STRONGER HOLD UNTIL MID-LATE AFTERNOON. THE OVERALL FRONTAL TIMING
AND LIMITED ENSUING COLD AIR ADVECTION INITIALLY WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO
PUSH 80F/LOWER 80S. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEPER MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL PROVIDE A MODEST DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. THIS WILL
LEAVE A WINDOW FOR SOME DEGREE OF RENEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE DAYLIGHT PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR A COMBINATION OF FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE AND MID LEVEL ASCENT ACCOMPANYING FAVORABLE UPPER JET
FORCING/HEIGHT FALLS TO CAPITALIZE ON DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION.
BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY WITH THE REGION BETWEEN MID LEVEL WAVES AND UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING. NEXT INBOUND SHORTWAVE WILL ELICIT
A MORE PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL RESPONSE RELATIVE TO EARLIER IMPULSES...
A PERIOD OF GREATER SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS EMERGING AS THE SYSTEM
LIFTS OUT OF THE PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO EJECT
NORTHEAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...REACHING NORTHERN LAKE HURON
BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. STEADY INCREASE IN LOW-MID LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION LOCALLY THROUGHOUT MONDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
STRENGTHENS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS SYSTEM. ACCOMPANYING UPTICK IN
MOISTURE TRANSPORT APPEARS TO LAG IN TIMING...INITIAL PERIOD OF
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ON MONDAY AND ANY ENSUING
DESTABILIZATION LACKING DEPTH TO SUPPORT GREATER CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL PRIOR TO 21Z. WILL LEAN THE FORECAST DRIER ACCORDINGLY
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY CENTERED ON THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S.
STRONGEST PRE-FRONTAL FORCING WILL TEND TO ARC FROM NORTHERN
WISCONSIN BACK THROUGH CHICAGO BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...POSITIONING OF
THE STRONGEST 850 MB FLOW FAVORING CONVECTIVE EXPANSION TOWARD THE
EAST/NORTHEAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL LEAVE AT LEAST
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA VULNERABLE TO ANY LEAD
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE INCREASING PRE-FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE FOCUSED JUST UPSTREAM. POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR
GREATER UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A MORE SIZABLE/SEVERE MCS ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN MONDAY EVENING...PARTICULARLY SHOULD THE TIMING ALLOW FOR
GREATER DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM. SOLID WIND
FIELD IN PLACE TO SUPPORT GREATER CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION...
QUESTION AGAIN CENTERS ON THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. AS NOTED IN
THE LATEST SPC DAY3 OUTLOOK...ECMWF NOT NEARLY AS ROBUST RELATIVE TO
THE GFS/NAM WITH EITHER THE DYNAMICS OR THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...
SO PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY YET IN DEFINING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL/
MAGNITUDE WITHIN THIS SETUP.
MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS ALL MARINE AREAS TODAY AS WEAKENING HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. COLD FRONT TRACKING ACROSS THE
REGION WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
MODEST WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISH SUNDAY EVENING AS THE NEXT
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......BT
AVIATION.....JVC
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......MR
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
550 AM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
.AVIATION...
PARTIAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS BLOSSOMED OVER NORTHERN IN/OH EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WILL POTENTIALLY BRING A PASSING SHOWER TO THE IMMEDIATE
DETROIT TAF SITES THROUGH 15Z. BIGGER AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE
PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS THAT WILL HOLD FIRM WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON
ONCE THEY ARRIVE NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER FORECAST ISSUANCE TIME.
DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD ALLOW SOME BREAKS TO DEVELOP BUT EXPECT
CEILING TO PERSIST REGARDLESS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER FROM NE
THIS MORNING TO SSE TONIGHT. POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT AS MORE UNSTABLE AIR SPREADS INTO SE MICHIGAN BUT CONFIDENCE
IN BOTH DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE REMAINS ON THE LOW END ATTM. BEST
CHANCE WOULD BE ROUGHLY 03-09Z.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIG AOB 5KFT
* LOW CONFIDENCE THAT A TSTORM WILL IMPACT KDTW AIRSPACE AFTER
APPROX 03Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 352 AM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
VERY DRY COLUMN THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE TROPOSPHERE IS ENTRENCHED
OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN PER 00Z DTX RAOB. LOWEST 6KFT OR SO CAN BE
EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SATURATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AS SHARP THETA-E GRADIENT LIFTS INTO THE AREA AS TROPICAL
REMNANTS LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. A LOW COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS DISPLACED NORTHWARD FROM CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS NOTED ON
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. 00Z NWP REMAIN INSISTENT
THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE, AND 05Z HRRR REMAINS
BULLISH AT PRESS TIME. THE PRIMARY FORCING APPEARS TO BE WEAK THETA-
E ADVECTION AND A MODEST COMPONENT OF MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION. AT
0730Z SHOWERS WERE NOTED INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA, WARRANTING THE ADVERTISED LOW CHC POP SOUTH OF THE METRO
AREA THROUGH MID MORNING. GREATER SENSIBLE WX IMPACT WILL LIKELY BE
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS, WHICH WILL AGGRESSIVELY LIFT INTO THE SOUTH OF M59
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE DIURNAL HEATING ALLOWS FOR SOME BREAKS BY
MID AFTERNOON. THETA-E TROUGH WILL HOLD FOR MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS
THE NORTH, ENSURING DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES. NO COMPLAINTS WITH 00Z TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WHICH
SUGGESTS 77-80F AREAWIDE, WARMEST IN THE SAGINAW VALLEY.
FORECAST BECOMES MORE NUANCED LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT.
CORE OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES AND ATTENDANT HEIGHT FALLS
WILL PUSH INTO LOWER MICHIGAN FROM THE WEST. REMNANTS OF PERHAPS THE
CLEANEST EML OF THE SEASON WILL FOLD ACROSS THE CWA AFTER 21Z WITH A
HEALTHY PLUME OF DEEP 7C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES POSSIBLE DEPENDING
ON MODULATION BY UPSTREAM CONVECTION BEFORE IT ADVECTS INTO THE
AREA. REMNANTS OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION MAY HOLD TOGETHER ALONG THE
LEAD EDGE OF THE HIGHER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, WARRANTING CHC POPS
AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING. SEVERE THREAT DURING THIS TIME WILL REMAIN
WELL UPSTREAM AND MOST LIKELY CONFINED TO THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF THE
INSTABILITY GRADIENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE/UPPER MS VALLEY.
LOCALLY, LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASINGLY VEERED
WIND PROFILE AND POTENTIAL MODERATE ELEVATED NOCTURNAL
DESTABILIZATION AS THE LOWER PORTION OF THE COLUMN WARMS BENEATH
STEEPER LAPSE RATES. BULK SHEAR WITHIN THE ELEVATED/EFFECTIVE LAYER
SHOULD EASILY HOLD IN THE 35KT RANGE, SO AT LEAST A LOWER END THREAT
FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL EXISTS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
LONG TERM... SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
QUASI-ZONAL LOW AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL WEST/WNW FLOW WILL LARGELY
DICTATE CONDITIONS LOCALLY RIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD.
FLOW RIPE WITH WEAK IMPULSES AND ASSOCIATED UPPER JET MAXIMA OF
CENTRAL PACIFIC ORIGIN WILL MAINTAIN AN INTERMITTENTLY ACTIVE
STRETCH OF WEATHER THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS PATTERN WILL
TEND TO FAVOR A GENERALLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURE REGIME GIVEN
LIMITED DAY TO DAY VARIATION IN THE GOVERNING THICKNESS/HEIGHT FIELD
AND LACK OF GREATER MEAN AMPLITUDE.
ILL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE PROGRESSING THROUGH LOWER
MICHIGAN EARLY SUNDAY...ANCHORED WITHIN A NARROW REGION OF LEFT EXIT
REGION UPPER JET DYNAMICS. ATTENDANT SURFACE WAVE/COLD FRONTAL
STRUCTURE WILL TRAIL THE LEAD HEIGHT FALLS...THE MOST FAVORED
FRONTAL TIMING LOCALLY PER RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE COMMENCING DURING
THE MIDDAY PERIOD. WHILE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE PLUME WILL EXIT
EASTWARD BY MID MORNING...MOISTURE QUALITY THROUGH 700 MB REMAINS
RESPECTABLE WITH GREATER POST-FRONTAL DRY AIR ADVECTION NOT TAKING A
STRONGER HOLD UNTIL MID-LATE AFTERNOON. THE OVERALL FRONTAL TIMING
AND LIMITED ENSUING COLD AIR ADVECTION INITIALLY WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO
PUSH 80F/LOWER 80S. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEPER MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL PROVIDE A MODEST DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. THIS WILL
LEAVE A WINDOW FOR SOME DEGREE OF RENEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE DAYLIGHT PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR A COMBINATION OF FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE AND MID LEVEL ASCENT ACCOMPANYING FAVORABLE UPPER JET
FORCING/HEIGHT FALLS TO CAPITALIZE ON DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION.
BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY WITH THE REGION BETWEEN MID LEVEL WAVES AND UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING. NEXT INBOUND SHORTWAVE WILL ELICIT
A MORE PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL RESPONSE RELATIVE TO EARLIER IMPULSES...
A PERIOD OF GREATER SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS EMERGING AS THE SYSTEM
LIFTS OUT OF THE PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO EJECT
NORTHEAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...REACHING NORTHERN LAKE HURON
BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. STEADY INCREASE IN LOW-MID LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION LOCALLY THROUGHOUT MONDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
STRENGTHENS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS SYSTEM. ACCOMPANYING UPTICK IN
MOISTURE TRANSPORT APPEARS TO LAG IN TIMING...INITIAL PERIOD OF
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ON MONDAY AND ANY ENSUING
DESTABILIZATION LACKING DEPTH TO SUPPORT GREATER CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL PRIOR TO 21Z. WILL LEAN THE FORECAST DRIER ACCORDINGLY
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY CENTERED ON THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S.
STRONGEST PRE-FRONTAL FORCING WILL TEND TO ARC FROM NORTHERN
WISCONSIN BACK THROUGH CHICAGO BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...POSITIONING OF
THE STRONGEST 850 MB FLOW FAVORING CONVECTIVE EXPANSION TOWARD THE
EAST/NORTHEAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL LEAVE AT LEAST
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA VULNERABLE TO ANY LEAD
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE INCREASING PRE-FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE FOCUSED JUST UPSTREAM. POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR
GREATER UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A MORE SIZABLE/SEVERE MCS ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN MONDAY EVENING...PARTICULARLY SHOULD THE TIMING ALLOW FOR
GREATER DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM. SOLID WIND
FIELD IN PLACE TO SUPPORT GREATER CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION...
QUESTION AGAIN CENTERS ON THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. AS NOTED IN
THE LATEST SPC DAY3 OUTLOOK...ECMWF NOT NEARLY AS ROBUST RELATIVE TO
THE GFS/NAM WITH EITHER THE DYNAMICS OR THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...
SO PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY YET IN DEFINING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL/
MAGNITUDE WITHIN THIS SETUP.
MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS ALL MARINE AREAS TODAY AS WEAKENING HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. COLD FRONT TRACKING ACROSS THE
REGION WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
MODEST WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISH SUNDAY EVENING AS THE NEXT
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....JVC
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......MR
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
352 AM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
VERY DRY COLUMN THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE TROPOSPHERE IS ENTRENCHED
OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN PER 00Z DTX RAOB. LOWEST 6KFT OR SO CAN BE
EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SATURATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AS SHARP THETA-E GRADIENT LIFTS INTO THE AREA AS TROPICAL
REMNANTS LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. A LOW COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS DISPLACED NORTHWARD FROM CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS NOTED ON
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. 00Z NWP REMAIN INSISTENT
THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE, AND 05Z HRRR REMAINS
BULLISH AT PRESS TIME. THE PRIMARY FORCING APPEARS TO BE WEAK THETA-
E ADVECTION AND A MODEST COMPONENT OF MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION. AT
0730Z SHOWERS WERE NOTED INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA, WARRANTING THE ADVERTISED LOW CHC POP SOUTH OF THE METRO
AREA THROUGH MID MORNING. GREATER SENSIBLE WX IMPACT WILL LIKELY BE
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS, WHICH WILL AGGRESSIVELY LIFT INTO THE SOUTH OF M59
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE DIURNAL HEATING ALLOWS FOR SOME BREAKS BY
MID AFTERNOON. THETA-E TROUGH WILL HOLD FOR MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS
THE NORTH, ENSURING DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES. NO COMPLAINTS WITH 00Z TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WHICH
SUGGESTS 77-80F AREAWIDE, WARMEST IN THE SAGINAW VALLEY.
FORECAST BECOMES MORE NUANCED LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT.
CORE OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES AND ATTENDANT HEIGHT FALLS
WILL PUSH INTO LOWER MICHIGAN FROM THE WEST. REMNANTS OF PERHAPS THE
CLEANEST EML OF THE SEASON WILL FOLD ACROSS THE CWA AFTER 21Z WITH A
HEALTHY PLUME OF DEEP 7C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES POSSIBLE DEPENDING
ON MODULATION BY UPSTREAM CONVECTION BEFORE IT ADVECTS INTO THE
AREA. REMNANTS OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION MAY HOLD TOGETHER ALONG THE
LEAD EDGE OF THE HIGHER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, WARRANTING CHC POPS
AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING. SEVERE THREAT DURING THIS TIME WILL REMAIN
WELL UPSTREAM AND MOST LIKELY CONFINED TO THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF THE
INSTABILITY GRADIENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE/UPPER MS VALLEY.
LOCALLY, LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASINGLY VEERED
WIND PROFILE AND POTENTIAL MODERATE ELEVATED NOCTURNAL
DESTABILIZATION AS THE LOWER PORTION OF THE COLUMN WARMS BENEATH
STEEPER LAPSE RATES. BULK SHEAR WITHIN THE ELEVATED/EFFECTIVE LAYER
SHOULD EASILY HOLD IN THE 35KT RANGE, SO AT LEAST A LOWER END THREAT
FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL EXISTS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM... SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
QUASI-ZONAL LOW AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL WEST/WNW FLOW WILL LARGELY
DICTATE CONDITIONS LOCALLY RIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD.
FLOW RIPE WITH WEAK IMPULSES AND ASSOCIATED UPPER JET MAXIMA OF
CENTRAL PACIFIC ORIGIN WILL MAINTAIN AN INTERMITTENTLY ACTIVE
STRETCH OF WEATHER THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS PATTERN WILL
TEND TO FAVOR A GENERALLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURE REGIME GIVEN
LIMITED DAY TO DAY VARIATION IN THE GOVERNING THICKNESS/HEIGHT FIELD
AND LACK OF GREATER MEAN AMPLITUDE.
ILL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE PROGRESSING THROUGH LOWER
MICHIGAN EARLY SUNDAY...ANCHORED WITHIN A NARROW REGION OF LEFT EXIT
REGION UPPER JET DYNAMICS. ATTENDANT SURFACE WAVE/COLD FRONTAL
STRUCTURE WILL TRAIL THE LEAD HEIGHT FALLS...THE MOST FAVORED
FRONTAL TIMING LOCALLY PER RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE COMMENCING DURING
THE MIDDAY PERIOD. WHILE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE PLUME WILL EXIT
EASTWARD BY MID MORNING...MOISTURE QUALITY THROUGH 700 MB REMAINS
RESPECTABLE WITH GREATER POST-FRONTAL DRY AIR ADVECTION NOT TAKING A
STRONGER HOLD UNTIL MID-LATE AFTERNOON. THE OVERALL FRONTAL TIMING
AND LIMITED ENSUING COLD AIR ADVECTION INITIALLY WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO
PUSH 80F/LOWER 80S. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEPER MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL PROVIDE A MODEST DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. THIS WILL
LEAVE A WINDOW FOR SOME DEGREE OF RENEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE DAYLIGHT PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR A COMBINATION OF FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE AND MID LEVEL ASCENT ACCOMPANYING FAVORABLE UPPER JET
FORCING/HEIGHT FALLS TO CAPITALIZE ON DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION.
BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY WITH THE REGION BETWEEN MID LEVEL WAVES AND UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING. NEXT INBOUND SHORTWAVE WILL ILLICIT A
MORE PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL RESPONSE RELATIVE TO EARLIER IMPULSES...A
PERIOD OF GREATER SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS EMERGING AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS
OUT OF THE PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO EJECT
NORTHEAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...REACHING NORTHERN LAKE HURON BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. STEADY INCREASE IN LOW-MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION LOCALLY THROUGHOUT MONDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENS
DOWNSTREAM OF THIS SYSTEM. ACCOMPANYING UPTICK IN MOISTURE
TRANSPORT APPEARS TO LAG IN TIMING...INITIAL PERIOD OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION ON MONDAY AND ANY ENSUING DESTABILIZATION LACKING
DEPTH TO SUPPORT GREATER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL PRIOR TO 21Z. WILL
LEAN THE FORECAST DRIER ACCORDINGLY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY CENTERED ON THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S.
STRONGEST PRE-FRONTAL FORCING WILL TEND TO ARC FROM NORTHERN
WISCONSIN BACK THROUGH CHICAGO BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...POSITIONING OF
THE STRONGEST 850 MB FLOW FAVORING CONVECTIVE EXPANSION TOWARD THE
EAST/NORTHEAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL LEAVE AT LEAST
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA VULNERABLE TO ANY LEAD
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE INCREASING PRE-FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE FOCUSED JUST UPSTREAM. POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR
GREATER UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A MORE SIZABLE/SEVERE MCS ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN MONDAY EVENING...PARTICULARLY SHOULD THE TIMING ALLOW FOR
GREATER DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM. SOLID WIND
FIELD IN PLACE TO SUPPORT GREATER CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION...
QUESTION AGAIN CENTERS ON THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. AS NOTED IN
THE LATEST SPC DAY3 OUTLOOK...ECMWF NOT NEARLY AS ROBUST RELATIVE TO
THE GFS/NAM WITH EITHER THE DYNAMICS OR THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...
SO PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY YET IN DEFINING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL/
MAGNITUDE WITHIN THIS SETUP.
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS ALL MARINE AREAS TODAY AS WEAKENING HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. COLD FRONT TRACKING ACROSS THE
REGION WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
MODEST WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISH SUNDAY EVENING AS THE NEXT
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 1221 AM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
QUIET AVIATION WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT WITH A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS PARKED OVER LAKE HURON. AS THE
RIDGE STRIPS OUT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EASTWARD...RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE. WATCHING A BAND OF
SHOWERS SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IN/OH.
MODELS SUGGEST THERE IS SOME LOW POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO LIFT TO
AROUND THE MI/OH STATE LINE VERY LATE TONIGHT.
NEVERTHELESS...EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS AT DTW. MODELS REMAIN
BULLISH IN MVFR STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS DECK LIFTING INTO SECTIONS
ALOGN AND SOUTH OF M59 TOMORROW MORNING AND ONLY SLOWLY
EVOLVING/LIFTING TO CUMULUS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH CIGS BELOW 5000 FEET AFTER 11Z SATURDAY
MORNING AND PERSISTING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......MR
AVIATION.....JVC
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
135 AM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF OVER THE PACIFIC
NW/SW CANADA...SUBTLE RIDGING OVER MT/WY INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS AND
WEAK TROFFING INTO NEW ENGLAND. LOW-LEVEL JET OVER THE WRN HIGH
PLAINS FUELED SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE DAKOTAS EARLY TODAY. MUCH OF THAT
PCPN HAS SINCE DISSIPATED...BUT REMNANTS ARE STRENGTHENING AGAIN
OVER ERN SD. OTHER REMNANT SHRA ARE MOVING ACROSS NW MN/SRN
SASKATCHEWAN AND JUST ACROSS THE BORDER INTO NRN ONTARIO. CLOSER TO
HOME...SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE UPPER LAKES IS PROVIDING A PLEASANT
MID JUN AFTN ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EARLIER
TODAY...CU BLOSSOMED OVER THE E...BUT THOSE CLOUDS ARE NOW
DISSIPATING. SCT-BKN MOSTLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO STREAMING INTO
PARTS OF THE AREA.
QUIET WEATHER WILL BEGIN THE SHORT TERM WITH LINGERING DRY AIR MASS
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH PRES MOVING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTN TO NEW ENGLAND BY SAT MORNING. LATER TONIGHT AND INTO SAT...
ATTENTION TURNS TO A COMPLEX SERIES OF SHORTWAVES STREAKING ACROSS
THE NRN CONUS/SRN CANADA. IT APPEARS THAT THERE IS A SUBTLE WAVE
SUPPORTING THE SHRA ACTIVITY CURRENTLY IN NW MN/SRN SASKATCHEWAN.
THIS WAVE MAY CONTINUE TO AID SHRA AND MAYBE SOME TSRA INTO NRN LAKE
SUPERIOR/ADJACENT NRN ONTARIO TONIGHT. ON THE NOSE OF THE 850MB
THETA-E RIDGE WITH LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASING DURING THE NIGHT...THIS
ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO INCREASE SOME AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. THE
UNCERTAINTY IS IN WHETHER THIS CONVECTION WILL BUILD S FAR ENOUGH TO
IMPACT NW UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
PCPN WILL STAY N OF THE AREA. GIVEN PROXIMITY OF LOW-LEVEL JET/THETA-
E AXIS...WILL MAINTAIN A SCHC MENTION INTO FAR WRN UPPER MI LATE
TONIGHT. FARTHER W...THERE IS A CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE THAT ANOTHER CLUSTER OF SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP/EXPAND IN
THE ERN DAKOTAS/MN TONIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...ON THE NOSE
OF A STRONGER PORTION OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET AND THE ON
NRN EDGE OF STRONG INSTABILITY OVER THE PLAINS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
STILL BE W OF UPPER MI AT 12Z SAT.
FCST ON SAT WILL HINGE SOMEWHAT ON WHAT DEVELOPS OUT OF THE
CONVECTION TO THE W TONIGHT. IF A SFC LOW CONVECTIVELY SPINS UP AND
MOVES ACROSS NRN WI...IT COULD SUPPORT A LARGE AREA OF SHRA AND SOME
ISOLD EMBEDDED THUNDER SPREADING E ACROSS THE FCST AREA DURING THE
DAY. IT`S NOT CLEAR IF THAT WILL OCCUR. IN ANY EVENT...SHORTWAVE
MOVING THRU THE UPPER LAKES SHOULD SUPPORT A GOOD POTENTIAL OF SHRA
SPREADING W TO E ACROSS THE AREA SAT. IN GENERAL...LIKELY POPS LOOK
REASONABLE. SINCE THE GFS HAS PULLED BACK ON INSTABILITY TO BECOME
SIMILAR TO THE NAM IN SHOWING ALMOST NO INSTABILITY DEVELOPING INTO
UPPER MI ON SAT...NOT EXPECTING ANY SVR STORMS SAT. LATEST DAY2
OUTLOOK FROM SPC HAS ALSO SHIFTED MRGL RISK FARTHER S INTO CNTRL WI
AS WELL. IF FOR SOME REASON CLOUDS BREAK ALLOWING A BUILDING OF
INSTABILITY...THEN THERE COULD BE SOME SVR STORMS SINCE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS FCST TO BE IN EXCESS OF 50KT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015
A ZONAL PATTERN WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO MOVE THROUGH
THE NRN CONUS. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SW CONUS TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK...A TRANSITION TOWARD MORE NW FLOW IS EXPECTED. TEMPS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH THE MAIN
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION.
SAT NIGHT...THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PCPN. EXPECT
SCT/NMRS SHRA OVER THE EAST HALF DURING THE EVENING TO MOVE OUT OF
MOST OF THE CWA BY LATE EVENING BUT MAY LINGER OVER THE EAST AFT
03Z/SUN. NAM FCST MUCPE VALUES IN THE 300-600 J/KG RANGE MAY SUPPORT
SOME ISOLD TSRA. OTHERWISE...SOME DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP INTO N CNTRL
UPPER MI WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE NRLY FLOW
DEVELOPING BEHIND THE SFC TROUGH.
SUN...EXPECT WEAK SFC RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH MAINLY LIGHT
WINDS ALLOWING LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH MLCAPE MLCAPE
VALUES INTO THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE MAY BE POSSIBLE...MID LEVEL
CAPPING QVECTOR/DIV SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE
FOR SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT.
SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE NRN LAKES WITH A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO STRONG QVECTOR CONV.
ALTHOUGH ONLY CHANCE POPS WERE MENTIONED FOR NOW...MODEL TRENDS
TOWARD A STRONGER/SLOWER SHRTWV SUGGESTS POPS MAY INCREASE CLOSER TO
THE SHRA/TSRA EVENT.
TUE-FRI...THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL FAVOR ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES
MOVING INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF ANY OF THESE
FEATURES IS MORE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE. SO...MODELS CONSENSUS LOWER
END CHANCE POPS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU SAT MORNING.
INCREASING WINDS OVER NOCTURNAL INVERSION WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL
LLWS AT KIWD/KCMX OVERNIGHT. ON SAT...AREA OF SHRA SHOULD SPREAD E
INTO UPPER MI...AFFECTING KIWD/KCMX IN THE MORNING. ARRIVAL OF
HEAVIER PCPN SAT AFTERNOON WILL DROP ALL SITES TO MVFR CONDITIONS
AND THEN TO IFR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LAST INTO SAT
EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL
DOMINATE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. STRONGEST WINDS
WILL PROBABLY OCCUR TONIGHT THRU SAT MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE. OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE WHICH IS FAVORED FOR
STRONGEST WINDS IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN...S WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST
TO AROUND 20KT AT TIMES. THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS WILL PROBABLY
GUST TO AROUND 30KT. WITH ONLY WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE...LIGHTER WINDS WILL FOLLOW FOR THE LAST HALF
THE WEEKEND. THESE LIGHT WINDS...UNDER 20KT...WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THRU THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK SUMMERTIME PRES GRADIENT
SHOULD PREVAIL.
EXPECTED RAINFALL SAT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE LAKE...AND THE FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE. IF THE FOG DOES
IN FACT DEVELOP...FOG PATCHES MAY LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
DUE TO A LACK OF STRONG ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...07
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
715 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF OVER THE PACIFIC
NW/SW CANADA...SUBTLE RIDGING OVER MT/WY INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS AND
WEAK TROFFING INTO NEW ENGLAND. LOW-LEVEL JET OVER THE WRN HIGH
PLAINS FUELED SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE DAKOTAS EARLY TODAY. MUCH OF THAT
PCPN HAS SINCE DISSIPATED...BUT REMNANTS ARE STRENGTHENING AGAIN
OVER ERN SD. OTHER REMNANT SHRA ARE MOVING ACROSS NW MN/SRN
SASKATCHEWAN AND JUST ACROSS THE BORDER INTO NRN ONTARIO. CLOSER TO
HOME...SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE UPPER LAKES IS PROVIDING A PLEASANT
MID JUN AFTN ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EARLIER
TODAY...CU BLOSSOMED OVER THE E...BUT THOSE CLOUDS ARE NOW
DISSIPATING. SCT-BKN MOSTLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO STREAMING INTO
PARTS OF THE AREA.
QUIET WEATHER WILL BEGIN THE SHORT TERM WITH LINGERING DRY AIR MASS
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH PRES MOVING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTN TO NEW ENGLAND BY SAT MORNING. LATER TONIGHT AND INTO SAT...
ATTENTION TURNS TO A COMPLEX SERIES OF SHORTWAVES STREAKING ACROSS
THE NRN CONUS/SRN CANADA. IT APPEARS THAT THERE IS A SUBTLE WAVE
SUPPORTING THE SHRA ACTIVITY CURRENTLY IN NW MN/SRN SASKATCHEWAN.
THIS WAVE MAY CONTINUE TO AID SHRA AND MAYBE SOME TSRA INTO NRN LAKE
SUPERIOR/ADJACENT NRN ONTARIO TONIGHT. ON THE NOSE OF THE 850MB
THETA-E RIDGE WITH LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASING DURING THE NIGHT...THIS
ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO INCREASE SOME AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. THE
UNCERTAINTY IS IN WHETHER THIS CONVECTION WILL BUILD S FAR ENOUGH TO
IMPACT NW UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
PCPN WILL STAY N OF THE AREA. GIVEN PROXIMITY OF LOW-LEVEL JET/THETA-
E AXIS...WILL MAINTAIN A SCHC MENTION INTO FAR WRN UPPER MI LATE
TONIGHT. FARTHER W...THERE IS A CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE THAT ANOTHER CLUSTER OF SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP/EXPAND IN
THE ERN DAKOTAS/MN TONIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...ON THE NOSE
OF A STRONGER PORTION OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET AND THE ON
NRN EDGE OF STRONG INSTABILITY OVER THE PLAINS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
STILL BE W OF UPPER MI AT 12Z SAT.
FCST ON SAT WILL HINGE SOMEWHAT ON WHAT DEVELOPS OUT OF THE
CONVECTION TO THE W TONIGHT. IF A SFC LOW CONVECTIVELY SPINS UP AND
MOVES ACROSS NRN WI...IT COULD SUPPORT A LARGE AREA OF SHRA AND SOME
ISOLD EMBEDDED THUNDER SPREADING E ACROSS THE FCST AREA DURING THE
DAY. IT`S NOT CLEAR IF THAT WILL OCCUR. IN ANY EVENT...SHORTWAVE
MOVING THRU THE UPPER LAKES SHOULD SUPPORT A GOOD POTENTIAL OF SHRA
SPREADING W TO E ACROSS THE AREA SAT. IN GENERAL...LIKELY POPS LOOK
REASONABLE. SINCE THE GFS HAS PULLED BACK ON INSTABILITY TO BECOME
SIMILAR TO THE NAM IN SHOWING ALMOST NO INSTABILITY DEVELOPING INTO
UPPER MI ON SAT...NOT EXPECTING ANY SVR STORMS SAT. LATEST DAY2
OUTLOOK FROM SPC HAS ALSO SHIFTED MRGL RISK FARTHER S INTO CNTRL WI
AS WELL. IF FOR SOME REASON CLOUDS BREAK ALLOWING A BUILDING OF
INSTABILITY...THEN THERE COULD BE SOME SVR STORMS SINCE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS FCST TO BE IN EXCESS OF 50KT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015
A ZONAL PATTERN WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO MOVE THROUGH
THE NRN CONUS. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SW CONUS TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK...A TRANSITION TOWARD MORE NW FLOW IS EXPECTED. TEMPS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH THE MAIN
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION.
SAT NIGHT...THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PCPN. EXPECT
SCT/NMRS SHRA OVER THE EAST HALF DURING THE EVENING TO MOVE OUT OF
MOST OF THE CWA BY LATE EVENING BUT MAY LINGER OVER THE EAST AFT
03Z/SUN. NAM FCST MUCPE VALUES IN THE 300-600 J/KG RANGE MAY SUPPORT
SOME ISOLD TSRA. OTHERWISE...SOME DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP INTO N CNTRL
UPPER MI WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE NRLY FLOW
DEVELOPING BEHIND THE SFC TROUGH.
SUN...EXPECT WEAK SFC RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH MAINLY LIGHT
WINDS ALLOWING LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH MLCAPE MLCAPE
VALUES INTO THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE MAY BE POSSIBLE...MID LEVEL
CAPPING QVECTOR/DIV SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE
FOR SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT.
SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE NRN LAKES WITH A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO STRONG QVECTOR CONV.
ALTHOUGH ONLY CHANCE POPS WERE MENTIONED FOR NOW...MODEL TRENDS
TOWARD A STRONGER/SLOWER SHRTWV SUGGESTS POPS MAY INCREASE CLOSER TO
THE SHRA/TSRA EVENT.
TUE-FRI...THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL FAVOR ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES
MOVING INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF ANY OF THESE
FEATURES IS MORE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE. SO...MODELS CONSENSUS LOWER
END CHANCE POPS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 715 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU SAT MORNING.
INCREASING WINDS OVER NOCTURNAL INVERSION WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL
LLWS AT KIWD/KCMX TONIGHT. ON SAT...AREA OF SHRA SHOULD SPREAD E
INTO UPPER MI...AFFECTING KIWD/KCMX IN THE MORNING. ARRIVAL OF
HEAVIER PCPN SAT AFTERNOON WILL DROP ALL SITES TO MVFR
CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL
DOMINATE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. STRONGEST WINDS
WILL PROBABLY OCCUR TONIGHT THRU SAT MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE. OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE WHICH IS FAVORED FOR
STRONGEST WINDS IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN...S WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST
TO AROUND 20KT AT TIMES. THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS WILL PROBABLY
GUST TO AROUND 30KT. WITH ONLY WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE...LIGHTER WINDS WILL FOLLOW FOR THE LAST HALF
THE WEEKEND. THESE LIGHT WINDS...UNDER 20KT...WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THRU THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK SUMMERTIME PRES GRADIENT
SHOULD PREVAIL.
EXPECTED RAINFALL SAT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE LAKE...AND THE FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE. IF THE FOG DOES
IN FACT DEVELOP...FOG PATCHES MAY LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
DUE TO A LACK OF STRONG ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...07
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
442 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF OVER THE PACIFIC
NW/SW CANADA...SUBTLE RIDGING OVER MT/WY INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS AND
WEAK TROFFING INTO NEW ENGLAND. LOW-LEVEL JET OVER THE WRN HIGH
PLAINS FUELED SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE DAKOTAS EARLY TODAY. MUCH OF THAT
PCPN HAS SINCE DISSIPATED...BUT REMNANTS ARE STRENGTHENING AGAIN
OVER ERN SD. OTHER REMNANT SHRA ARE MOVING ACROSS NW MN/SRN
SASKATCHEWAN AND JUST ACROSS THE BORDER INTO NRN ONTARIO. CLOSER TO
HOME...SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE UPPER LAKES IS PROVIDING A PLEASANT
MID JUN AFTN ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EARLIER
TODAY...CU BLOSSOMED OVER THE E...BUT THOSE CLOUDS ARE NOW
DISSIPATING. SCT-BKN MOSTLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO STREAMING INTO
PARTS OF THE AREA.
QUIET WEATHER WILL BEGIN THE SHORT TERM WITH LINGERING DRY AIR MASS
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH PRES MOVING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTN TO NEW ENGLAND BY SAT MORNING. LATER TONIGHT AND INTO SAT...
ATTENTION TURNS TO A COMPLEX SERIES OF SHORTWAVES STREAKING ACROSS
THE NRN CONUS/SRN CANADA. IT APPEARS THAT THERE IS A SUBTLE WAVE
SUPPORTING THE SHRA ACTIVITY CURRENTLY IN NW MN/SRN SASKATCHEWAN.
THIS WAVE MAY CONTINUE TO AID SHRA AND MAYBE SOME TSRA INTO NRN LAKE
SUPERIOR/ADJACENT NRN ONTARIO TONIGHT. ON THE NOSE OF THE 850MB
THETA-E RIDGE WITH LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASING DURING THE NIGHT...THIS
ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO INCREASE SOME AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. THE
UNCERTAINTY IS IN WHETHER THIS CONVECTION WILL BUILD S FAR ENOUGH TO
IMPACT NW UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
PCPN WILL STAY N OF THE AREA. GIVEN PROXIMITY OF LOW-LEVEL JET/THETA-
E AXIS...WILL MAINTAIN A SCHC MENTION INTO FAR WRN UPPER MI LATE
TONIGHT. FARTHER W...THERE IS A CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE THAT ANOTHER CLUSTER OF SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP/EXPAND IN
THE ERN DAKOTAS/MN TONIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...ON THE NOSE
OF A STRONGER PORTION OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET AND THE ON
NRN EDGE OF STRONG INSTABILITY OVER THE PLAINS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
STILL BE W OF UPPER MI AT 12Z SAT.
FCST ON SAT WILL HINGE SOMEWHAT ON WHAT DEVELOPS OUT OF THE
CONVECTION TO THE W TONIGHT. IF A SFC LOW CONVECTIVELY SPINS UP AND
MOVES ACROSS NRN WI...IT COULD SUPPORT A LARGE AREA OF SHRA AND SOME
ISOLD EMBEDDED THUNDER SPREADING E ACROSS THE FCST AREA DURING THE
DAY. IT`S NOT CLEAR IF THAT WILL OCCUR. IN ANY EVENT...SHORTWAVE
MOVING THRU THE UPPER LAKES SHOULD SUPPORT A GOOD POTENTIAL OF SHRA
SPREADING W TO E ACROSS THE AREA SAT. IN GENERAL...LIKELY POPS LOOK
REASONABLE. SINCE THE GFS HAS PULLED BACK ON INSTABILITY TO BECOME
SIMILAR TO THE NAM IN SHOWING ALMOST NO INSTABILITY DEVELOPING INTO
UPPER MI ON SAT...NOT EXPECTING ANY SVR STORMS SAT. LATEST DAY2
OUTLOOK FROM SPC HAS ALSO SHIFTED MRGL RISK FARTHER S INTO CNTRL WI
AS WELL. IF FOR SOME REASON CLOUDS BREAK ALLOWING A BUILDING OF
INSTABILITY...THEN THERE COULD BE SOME SVR STORMS SINCE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS FCST TO BE IN EXCESS OF 50KT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015
A ZONAL PATTERN WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO MOVE THROUGH
THE NRN CONUS. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SW CONUS TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK...A TRANSITION TOWARD MORE NW FLOW IS EXPECTED. TEMPS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH THE MAIN
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION.
SAT NIGHT...THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PCPN. EXPECT
SCT/NMRS SHRA OVER THE EAST HALF DURING THE EVENING TO MOVE OUT OF
MOST OF THE CWA BY LATE EVENING BUT MAY LINGER OVER THE EAST AFT
03Z/SUN. NAM FCST MUCPE VALUES IN THE 300-600 J/KG RANGE MAY SUPPORT
SOME ISOLD TSRA. OTHERWISE...SOME DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP INTO N CNTRL
UPPER MI WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE NRLY FLOW
DEVELOPING BEHIND THE SFC TROUGH.
SUN...EXPECT WEAK SFC RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH MAINLY LIGHT
WINDS ALLOWING LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH MLCAPE MLCAPE
VALUES INTO THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE MAY BE POSSIBLE...MID LEVEL
CAPPING QVECTOR/DIV SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE
FOR SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT.
SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE NRN LAKES WITH A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO STRONG QVECTOR CONV.
ALTHOUGH ONLY CHANCE POPS WERE MENTIONED FOR NOW...MODEL TRENDS
TOWARD A STRONGER/SLOWER SHRTWV SUGGESTS POPS MAY INCREASE CLOSER TO
THE SHRA/TSRA EVENT.
TUE-FRI...THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL FAVOR ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES
MOVING INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF ANY OF THESE
FEATURES IS MORE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE. SO...MODELS CONSENSUS LOWER
END CHANCE POPS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 113 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU TONIGHT AS DRY
LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING HIGH PRES LINGERS OVER
THE AREA. APPROACHING DISTURBANCE COULD BRING A FEW -SHRA TO
KCMX/KIWD LATE TONIGHT...BUT EXPECTATION IS FOR PCPN TO PASS BY TO
THE N. INCREASING WINDS OVER NOCTURNAL INVERSION WILL RESULT IN
MARGINAL LLWS AT KIWD/KCMX TONIGHT. ON SAT...AREA OF SHRA SHOULD
SPREAD E INTO UPPER MI...AFFECTING KIWD/KCMX IN THE MORNING.
POSSIBLE ARRIVAL OF HEAVIER PCPN BY LATE MORNING AT KIWD MAY DROP
CONDITIONS TO MVFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL
DOMINATE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. STRONGEST WINDS
WILL PROBABLY OCCUR TONIGHT THRU SAT MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE. OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE WHICH IS FAVORED FOR
STRONGEST WINDS IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN...S WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST
TO AROUND 20KT AT TIMES. THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS WILL PROBABLY
GUST TO AROUND 30KT. WITH ONLY WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE...LIGHTER WINDS WILL FOLLOW FOR THE LAST HALF
THE WEEKEND. THESE LIGHT WINDS...UNDER 20KT...WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THRU THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK SUMMERTIME PRES GRADIENT
SHOULD PREVAIL.
EXPECTED RAINFALL SAT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE LAKE...AND THE FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE. IF THE FOG DOES
IN FACT DEVELOP...FOG PATCHES MAY LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
DUE TO A LACK OF STRONG ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
358 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF OVER THE PACIFIC
NW/SW CANADA...SUBTLE RIDGING OVER MT/WY INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS AND
WEAK TROFFING INTO NEW ENGLAND. LOW-LEVEL JET OVER THE WRN HIGH
PLAINS FUELED SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE DAKOTAS EARLY TODAY. MUCH OF THAT
PCPN HAS SINCE DISSIPATED...BUT REMNANTS ARE STRENGTHENING AGAIN
OVER ERN SD. OTHER REMNANT SHRA ARE MOVING ACROSS NW MN/SRN
SASKATCHEWAN AND JUST ACROSS THE BORDER INTO NRN ONTARIO. CLOSER TO
HOME...SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE UPPER LAKES IS PROVIDING A PLEASANT
MID JUN AFTN ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EARLIER
TODAY...CU BLOSSOMED OVER THE E...BUT THOSE CLOUDS ARE NOW
DISSIPATING. SCT-BKN MOSTLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO STREAMING INTO
PARTS OF THE AREA.
QUIET WEATHER WILL BEGIN THE SHORT TERM WITH LINGERING DRY AIR MASS
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH PRES MOVING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTN TO NEW ENGLAND BY SAT MORNING. LATER TONIGHT AND INTO SAT...
ATTENTION TURNS TO A COMPLEX SERIES OF SHORTWAVES STREAKING ACROSS
THE NRN CONUS/SRN CANADA. IT APPEARS THAT THERE IS A SUBTLE WAVE
SUPPORTING THE SHRA ACTIVITY CURRENTLY IN NW MN/SRN SASKATCHEWAN.
THIS WAVE MAY CONTINUE TO AID SHRA AND MAYBE SOME TSRA INTO NRN LAKE
SUPERIOR/ADJACENT NRN ONTARIO TONIGHT. ON THE NOSE OF THE 850MB
THETA-E RIDGE WITH LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASING DURING THE NIGHT...THIS
ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO INCREASE SOME AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. THE
UNCERTAINTY IS IN WHETHER THIS CONVECTION WILL BUILD S FAR ENOUGH TO
IMPACT NW UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
PCPN WILL STAY N OF THE AREA. GIVEN PROXIMITY OF LOW-LEVEL JET/THETA-
E AXIS...WILL MAINTAIN A SCHC MENTION INTO FAR WRN UPPER MI LATE
TONIGHT. FARTHER W...THERE IS A CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE THAT ANOTHER CLUSTER OF SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP/EXPAND IN
THE ERN DAKOTAS/MN TONIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...ON THE NOSE
OF A STRONGER PORTION OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET AND THE ON
NRN EDGE OF STRONG INSTABILITY OVER THE PLAINS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
STILL BE W OF UPPER MI AT 12Z SAT.
FCST ON SAT WILL HINGE SOMEWHAT ON WHAT DEVELOPS OUT OF THE
CONVECTION TO THE W TONIGHT. IF A SFC LOW CONVECTIVELY SPINS UP AND
MOVES ACROSS NRN WI...IT COULD SUPPORT A LARGE AREA OF SHRA AND SOME
ISOLD EMBEDDED THUNDER SPREADING E ACROSS THE FCST AREA DURING THE
DAY. IT`S NOT CLEAR IF THAT WILL OCCUR. IN ANY EVENT...SHORTWAVE
MOVING THRU THE UPPER LAKES SHOULD SUPPORT A GOOD POTENTIAL OF SHRA
SPREADING W TO E ACROSS THE AREA SAT. IN GENERAL...LIKELY POPS LOOK
REASONABLE. SINCE THE GFS HAS PULLED BACK ON INSTABILITY TO BECOME
SIMILAR TO THE NAM IN SHOWING ALMOST NO INSTABILITY DEVELOPING INTO
UPPER MI ON SAT...NOT EXPECTING ANY SVR STORMS SAT. LATEST DAY2
OUTLOOK FROM SPC HAS ALSO SHIFTED MRGL RISK FARTHER S INTO CNTRL WI
AS WELL. IF FOR SOME REASON CLOUDS BREAK ALLOWING A BUILDING OF
INSTABILITY...THEN THERE COULD BE SOME SVR STORMS SINCE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS FCST TO BE IN EXCESS OF 50KT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH EXTENDED FCST PD IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING A PERSISTENT ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN CONUS TO
THE N OF A SUBTROPICAL UPR RDG OVER THE SRN STATES. MAIN FCST
CHALLENGES WL BE TIMING PCPN EVENTS ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCES
STREAMING W-E IN THIS FAST FLOW. SINCE THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR
WL REMAIN TO THE S CLOSER TO THE RDG...EXPECT TEMPS TO AVERAGE AT
OR BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD.
SATURDAY...00Z MODELS AND EVEN MANY OF YESTERDAYS 12Z RUNS APPEAR TO
HAVE INITIAL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC BEST WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVING
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SAT MORNING INTO EARLY SAT AFTERNOON.
MODELS THEN INDICATE A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA SAT
EVENING. THIS SECONDARY SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE WHAT PROPELS COLD FRONT
INTO AREA LATE SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR 50 KT
WOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS AND POSSIBLY SVR RISK IF SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS...BUT MODELS REALLY SHOW INSTABILITY LACKING.
ONLY THE NAM INDICATES 300-400 J/KG MLCAPE BY 00Z SUNDAY OVER THE
CENTRAL U.P. AND ALSO...MODELS INDICATE STEEPEST MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
OF 7C/KM OR GREATER STAYING WELL SE OF THE FCST AREA CLOSER TO
ORIENTATION AND AXIS OF 8H JET MAX OVER LOWER MIDWEST AND LOWER
GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD LIMIT ANY SVR RISK AND SEEMS REASONABLE
THAT SPC KEEPS SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR SOUTH OF FCST ON DAY3 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK. HIGH PWAT OF 1.5 INCHES MOVING OVR THE AREA LATE SAT
AFTERNOON/SAT EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT COULD STILL SUPPORT
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND MAYBE SOME ISOLD TSRA. AFTER SAT EVENING
SHOWERS...MODELS INDICATE Q-VECT DIV AND DRYING/SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE
OF SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AND COLD FROPA WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT GENERALLY
DRIER FCST OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT.
HEADING INTO SUN...A FEW OF THE MODELS STILL HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME TRAILING SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE WNW FLOW ALOFT. WHETHER
THESE SHORTWAVES WILL HAVE AN IMPACT REMAINS IN QUESTION. PERHAPS
THEY COULD AID IN GENERATING SOME LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE SHOWERS
WITH DAYTIME HEATING UNDER LIGHT WIND FIELDS FROM WEAK SFC HIGH PRES
MOVING INTO THE UPPER LAKES. AT THIS TIME WILL RETAIN SCHC POPS OVER
THE INTERIOR CNTRL AND E FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODELS ADVERTISE YET ANOTHER WNW FLOW
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH INCREASING DEEP
LAYER Q-VECT AND MOISTENING. THIS WILL WARRANT ANOTHER INCREASE IN
POPS FOR SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. DRYING
BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH
OF DAY ON MONDAY.
THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW/ZONAL FLOW REGIME NEXT WEEK WILL MAKE IT
INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT FOR FORECAST MODELS TO DETERMINE
TIMING/STRENGTH/TRACK OF SHORTWAVES. AT THIS POINT...THERE ARE NO
INDICATIONS FOR A WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT PCPN EVENT IN THE MON THRU
THU TIME FRAME. WHEN PCPN DOES OCCUR IN UPPER MI...COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY BE ISOLD TO SCT. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO UTILIZE A SIMPLE
CONSENSUS APPROACH OF MODELS GUIDANCE TO CONSTRUCT FCST. RESULT IS
SCHC TO LOW CHC POPS ON MOST DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 113 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU TONIGHT AS DRY
LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING HIGH PRES LINGERS OVER
THE AREA. APPROACHING DISTURBANCE COULD BRING A FEW -SHRA TO
KCMX/KIWD LATE TONIGHT...BUT EXPECTATION IS FOR PCPN TO PASS BY TO
THE N. INCREASING WINDS OVER NOCTURNAL INVERSION WILL RESULT IN
MARGINAL LLWS AT KIWD/KCMX TONIGHT. ON SAT...AREA OF SHRA SHOULD
SPREAD E INTO UPPER MI...AFFECTING KIWD/KCMX IN THE MORNING.
POSSIBLE ARRIVAL OF HEAVIER PCPN BY LATE MORNING AT KIWD MAY DROP
CONDITIONS TO MVFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL
DOMINATE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. STRONGEST WINDS
WILL PROBABLY OCCUR TONIGHT THRU SAT MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE. OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE WHICH IS FAVORED FOR
STRONGEST WINDS IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN...S WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST
TO AROUND 20KT AT TIMES. THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS WILL PROBABLY
GUST TO AROUND 30KT. WITH ONLY WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE...LIGHTER WINDS WILL FOLLOW FOR THE LAST HALF
THE WEEKEND. THESE LIGHT WINDS...UNDER 20KT...WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THRU THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK SUMMERTIME PRES GRADIENT
SHOULD PREVAIL.
EXPECTED RAINFALL SAT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE LAKE...AND THE FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE. IF THE FOG DOES
IN FACT DEVELOP...FOG PATCHES MAY LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
DUE TO A LACK OF STRONG ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
633 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
WE REMAIN WITHIN A BELT OF RATHER HEALTHY WESTERLIES TODAY...THOUGH
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WE ARE IN A ZONE OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING
IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE THAT PUSHED THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. AT THE SFC...A TROUGH WITH A WIND
SHIFT OVER TO THE NW HAD PUSHED TO ABOUT I-35 AS OF 230 PM. SPC MESO-
ANALYSIS SHOWS 500-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...VIEW OUT THE WINDOW AND ON VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THE CU
FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INSTABILITY HAS A RATHER STABLE LOOK TO
IT...SO NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME OF THE HI-RES CAMS /ESPECIALLY THE HRRR/ CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
SOME ISO/SCT SHOWERS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FROM EC MN INTO WC
MN...SO HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF 20/30 POPS THIS AFTERNOON IN OUR
EAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT.
NEXT AREA TO WATCH FOR PRECIP THIS EVENING IS WRN MN. IR IMAGERY
SHOWS A SHORT WAVE WORKING ACROSS NW SODAK. STARTING TO SEE STORMS
BUBBLE UP FROM NW SODAK INTO NC NODAK BENEATH A PLUME OF STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE HRRR HAS PICKED UP ON THIS BIT OF
FORCING...SHOWING A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND MAKING A RUN FOR WEST CENTRAL
MN BETWEEN 7PM AND 10PM. AS THESE STORMS RUN TOWARD MN...THE RAP
SHOWS MUCAPE WANING...SO THINK THESE WILL RUN OUT OF STEAM BEFORE
GETTING INTO MN...THOUGH WE MAY NEED TO GET SOME LOW PROBS FOR -SHRA
INTO OUR WEST THIS EVENING.
NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST IS A STRONG SHORTWAVE EVIDENT ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY THAT BETWEEN 7 AM AND 3 PM HAS GONE FROM OFF THE
OREGON COAST TO WRN MT. DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND CAMS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS WAVE KICKING OFF ANOTHER MCS OVER THE BLACK HILLS
TONIGHT THAT WILL DIVE SE TOWARD OMAHA. AS IT DOES SO...ITS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WILL BECOME A WARM FRONT THAT WILL BEGIN LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS NEBRASKA TOWARD SW MN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NAM/GFS SHOW A BAND
OF ENHANCED INSTABILITY /1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE/ DEVELOPING DURING
THE AFTERNOON MORE OR LESS ALONG THE UPPER MN RIVER VALLEY. SEEING
SOME INDICATIONS IN BOTH CAMS AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS OF SOME
ISO/SCT TYPE CONVECTION DEVELOPING SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITHIN THIS
INSTABILITY AXIS...SO HAVE LEFT SOME 20 POPS IN THERE TO ACCOUNT FOR
THAT...THOUGH EXPECT IT TO BE MAINLY DRY FOR SUNDAY.
FOR THE FOG THREAT TONIGHT...THINK NAM IS OVERDONE WITH THE AMOUNT
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IT HAS AND IS THEREFORE OVERDOING ITS FOG
POTENTIAL IN WRN WI. LIKE THE IDEA OF THE RAP/GFS WITH FOG THREAT
BEING PRIMARILY UP NE MN INTO NW WI.
FINALLY...DID BOOST HIGHS FOR SUNDAY A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA.
NAM/GFS SHOW US MIXING UP TO 800 MB...AND MIXING DOWN FROM THIS
LEVEL YIELDED POTENTIAL HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S...SO MIXED THAT
IN WITH OUR GOING FORECAST TO GET MOST FOLKS UP INTO THE LOW/MID 80S
FOR HIGHS SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM ARE CENTERED AROUND SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A DEEPENING SHORT WAVE PASSES
ACROSS THE FA. THIS RESULTS IN STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER SOUTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN LATE IN THE NIGHT.
MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET EXCEEDS 50
KNOTS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA MONDAY MORNING
ACCOMPANIED BY PW VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...ONCE AGAIN ABOVE
THE TOP OF KMPX SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY. THE LOW AND WARM FRONT
SHOULD PUSH RATHER QUICKLY ACROSS THE FA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY
WITH SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES LESSENING IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE SETUP SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY SHOULD YIELD A COMPLEX OF
STORMS PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND ADJOINING AREAS OF WI.
PROFILE DATA INDICATES A STRONG WARM LAYER DEVELOPING IN THE LOW
LEVELS DURING THE NIGHT WITH VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE CAPE (1500 J/KG)
BEING ABOVE 850 MB. HENCE...DUE TO THE STRONGLY VEERING WIND
PROFILE CONFIDENCE FOR HAIL IS HIGHER THAN WIND EARLY ON IN THIS
EVENT. IN ADDITION...THE 925-850MB FN VECTOR DIVERGENCE ALSO RUNS
ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR LEADING TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAIN MAY FALL. AT THIS POINT...CAMS THAT REACH OUT TO
MONDAY MORNING ARE SHOWING A COMPLEX OF STORMS PASSING ALONG THE
MN/IA BORDER. THEREFORE...COLLABORATION TODAY WAS TO BREAK POPS
INTO 3 HOUR GROUPS AND DRIVE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN
FA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY ARE DRY
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES BY. A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTH WITH SMALL CHANCES EXTENDING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OUR FA. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR THESE PERIODS. THE STRONG WESTERLY UPPER AIR PATTERN
IS STILL FORECAST TO BUCKLE LATE IN THE WEEK AND WEEKEND AS
RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS IN THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A PRETTY DEEP
TROUGH IN THE EAST. THIS TRANSITION PERIOD (FRIDAY AND SATURDAY)
WILL OFFER THE NEXT PERIOD OF HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL VALUES THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH A SMALL DOWNWARD TREND ON HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR OR POSSIBLY
IFR VSBY IN FOG OVER WC WI AROUND SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE WEST SUNDAY MORNING.
KMSP...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS THRU THE TAF PERIOD WITH WINDS FROM
THE NW TONIGHT...MORE WEST/SW SUNDAY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. CHC MVFR WITH TSRA/SHRA. WIND S 5-10 KT BCMG NW 10KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW TO W AT 5 KT.
WED...VFR. CHC OF TSRA. WINDS E-SE 5 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...JLT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
359 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
WE REMAIN WITHIN A BELT OF RATHER HEALTHY WESTERLIES TODAY...THOUGH
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WE ARE IN A ZONE OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING
IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE THAT PUSHED THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. AT THE SFC...A TROUGH WITH A WIND
SHIFT OVER TO THE NW HAD PUSHED TO ABOUT I-35 AS OF 230 PM. SPC MESO-
ANALYSIS SHOWS 500-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...VIEW OUT THE WINDOW AND ON VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THE CU
FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INSTABILITY HAS A RATHER STABLE LOOK TO
IT...SO NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME OF THE HI-RES CAMS /ESPECIALLY THE HRRR/ CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
SOME ISO/SCT SHOWERS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FROM EC MN INTO WC
MN...SO HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF 20/30 POPS THIS AFTERNOON IN OUR
EAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT.
NEXT AREA TO WATCH FOR PRECIP THIS EVENING IS WRN MN. IR IMAGERY
SHOWS A SHORT WAVE WORKING ACROSS NW SODAK. STARTING TO SEE STORMS
BUBBLE UP FROM NW SODAK INTO NC NODAK BENEATH A PLUME OF STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE HRRR HAS PICKED UP ON THIS BIT OF
FORCING...SHOWING A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND MAKING A RUN FOR WEST CENTRAL
MN BETWEEN 7PM AND 10PM. AS THESE STORMS RUN TOWARD MN...THE RAP
SHOWS MUCAPE WANING...SO THINK THESE WILL RUN OUT OF STEAM BEFORE
GETTING INTO MN...THOUGH WE MAY NEED TO GET SOME LOW PROBS FOR -SHRA
INTO OUR WEST THIS EVENING.
NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST IS A STRONG SHORTWAVE EVIDENT ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY THAT BETWEEN 7 AM AND 3 PM HAS GONE FROM OFF THE
OREGON COAST TO WRN MT. DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND CAMS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS WAVE KICKING OFF ANOTHER MCS OVER THE BLACK HILLS
TONIGHT THAT WILL DIVE SE TOWARD OMAHA. AS IT DOES SO...ITS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WILL BECOME A WARM FRONT THAT WILL BEGIN LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS NEBRASKA TOWARD SW MN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NAM/GFS SHOW A BAND
OF ENHANCED INSTABILITY /1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE/ DEVELOPING DURING
THE AFTERNOON MORE OR LESS ALONG THE UPPER MN RIVER VALLEY. SEEING
SOME INDICATIONS IN BOTH CAMS AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS OF SOME
ISO/SCT TYPE CONVECTION DEVELOPING SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITHIN THIS
INSTABILITY AXIS...SO HAVE LEFT SOME 20 POPS IN THERE TO ACCOUNT FOR
THAT...THOUGH EXPECT IT TO BE MAINLY DRY FOR SUNDAY.
FOR THE FOG THREAT TONIGHT...THINK NAM IS OVERDONE WITH THE AMOUNT
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IT HAS AND IS THEREFORE OVERDOING ITS FOG
POTENTIAL IN WRN WI. LIKE THE IDEA OF THE RAP/GFS WITH FOG THREAT
BEING PRIMARILY UP NE MN INTO NW WI.
FINALLY...DID BOOST HIGHS FOR SUNDAY A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA.
NAM/GFS SHOW US MIXING UP TO 800 MB...AND MIXING DOWN FROM THIS
LEVEL YIELDED POTENTIAL HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S...SO MIXED THAT
IN WITH OUR GOING FORECAST TO GET MOST FOLKS UP INTO THE LOW/MID 80S
FOR HIGHS SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM ARE CENTERED AROUND SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A DEEPENING SHORT WAVE PASSES
ACROSS THE FA. THIS RESULTS IN STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER SOUTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN LATE IN THE NIGHT.
MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET EXCEEDS 50
KNOTS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA MONDAY MORNING
ACCOMPANIED BY PW VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...ONCE AGAIN ABOVE
THE TOP OF KMPX SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY. THE LOW AND WARM FRONT
SHOULD PUSH RATHER QUICKLY ACROSS THE FA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY
WITH SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES LESSENING IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE SETUP SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY SHOULD YIELD A COMPLEX OF
STORMS PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND ADJOINING AREAS OF WI.
PROFILE DATA INDICATES A STRONG WARM LAYER DEVELOPING IN THE LOW
LEVELS DURING THE NIGHT WITH VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE CAPE (1500 J/KG)
BEING ABOVE 850 MB. HENCE...DUE TO THE STRONGLY VEERING WIND
PROFILE CONFIDENCE FOR HAIL IS HIGHER THAN WIND EARLY ON IN THIS
EVENT. IN ADDITION...THE 925-850MB FN VECTOR DIVERGENCE ALSO RUNS
ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR LEADING TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAIN MAY FALL. AT THIS POINT...CAMS THAT REACH OUT TO
MONDAY MORNING ARE SHOWING A COMPLEX OF STORMS PASSING ALONG THE
MN/IA BORDER. THEREFORE...COLLABORATION TODAY WAS TO BREAK POPS
INTO 3 HOUR GROUPS AND DRIVE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN
FA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY ARE DRY
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES BY. A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTH WITH SMALL CHANCES EXTENDING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OUR FA. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR THESE PERIODS. THE STRONG WESTERLY UPPER AIR PATTERN
IS STILL FORECAST TO BUCKLE LATE IN THE WEEK AND WEEKEND AS
RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS IN THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A PRETTY DEEP
TROUGH IN THE EAST. THIS TRANSITION PERIOD (FRIDAY AND SATURDAY)
WILL OFFER THE NEXT PERIOD OF HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL VALUES THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH A SMALL DOWNWARD TREND ON HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
MVFR CIGS QUICKLY LIFTING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDS BY 21Z AREA
WIDE...WITH CIGS STAYING THAT WAY THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WE MAY
SEE SOME ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN WRN WI...BUT
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SPARSE ENOUGH TO LEAVE ANY SORT OF
PRECIP MENTION OUT OF WI TAFS. TONIGHT...SOME CONCERN BASED ON NAM
SOUNDINGS THAT FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE FOR EAU...BUT THINK NAM IS
OVERDONE ON ITS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHEN COMPARED TO WHAT THE
RAP/GFS SHOW...SO LIMITED ANY VIS RESTRICTIONS THERE TO JUST AN
MVFR BR. FOG POTENTIAL LOOKS MUCH BETTER FARTHER NORTH ACROSS NW
WI AND NE MN.
KMSP...WILL SEE OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS FOR THE FIRST HOUR...BUT
AFTER THAT...ITS VFR WITH W/NW WINDS THE REST OF THE TAF. NO
WEATHER CONCERNS AT MSP UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. CHC MVFR WITH TSRA/SHRA. WIND S 5-10 KT BCMG NW 10KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS N AT 5 KT.
WED...VFR. WINDS VRB AT 5KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1142 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
EVERYTHING STILL LOOKS ON TRACK TO SEE A BOWING MCS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. WHERE THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY IS WHAT HAPPENS OUT
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM IN SRLY FLOW AND WAA. THIS HAS RESULTED IN AN
IMPRESSIVE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL SODAK. NONE OF THE
GUIDANCE REALLY PICKED UP ON THIS ALL THAT WELL...BUT BY 00Z...THE
HRRR AND A COUPLE OF THE HOPWRF MEMBERS SHOW SOME ACTIVITY IN WRN
MN. BASED ON WHERE ACTIVITY AND INSTABILITY ARE AT THE MOMENT...
THINK THIS IS TOO FAR EAST TO SEE ANYTHING THIS EVENING AND THINK
ANY OF THIS SORT OF ACTIVITY WOULD STAY TO OUR WEST/SW...BACK WHERE
THE INSTABILITY RESIDES.
FOR TONIGHT...THERE IS STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE CAMS ON AN
BOWING MCS DEVELOPING OVER SODAK. THIS MAKES PLENTY OF SENSE WHEN
LOOKING AT THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS...WHICH CONTINUE TO SHOW A SRLY
LLJ INCREASING TO AROUND 50 KTS BENEATH A WRLY 60 KT MID-LEVEL JET.
THE WAVE THAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS MT. STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO BUILD IN ERN MONTANA
BETWEEN 3 AND 5 PM AND CONGEAL INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS
BETWEEN 7 AND 10 PM ALONG THE WRN NORTH/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. STORM
MOTION OFF THE HI-RES MODELS IS NEARLY 50 MPH...WHICH MATCHES UP
WELL WITH THE FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS OFF THE NAM. THIS
FORWARD MOTION IS WHAT WILL DRIVE THE HIGH WIND THREAT THIS
EVENING...BUT WILL ALSO DIMINISH PRECIPITATION TOTALS THAT WE SEE.
THOUGH PWATS UP NEAR 1.5 INCHES FAVOR A HEAVY RAIN THREAT...THE
FORWARD MOTION OF THE SYSTEM WILL REALLY CUT DOWN ON RAINFALL TOTALS
AND THINK ANY FLASH FLOOD THREAT WE HAVE TONIGHT WOULD COME WITHIN
THE COMMA HEAD OF A MATURE MCS IF ONE WERE TO DEVELOP.
AS FOR TIMING THIS SYSTEM IN THE GRIDS...GIVEN THE SPEED ITS
MOVING...FOLLOWED THE FASTER CAMS. THIS RESULTED IN SOMETHING CLOSE
TO WHAT THE HRRR HAS...SWITCHING TO THE HIRES-ARW ONCE WE GET PAST
THE 15 HOURS OF THE HRRR. ONE CONCERN FOR SEEING CONVECTION EARLIER
IS SOME OF THE CAMS ARE ALSO SHOWING A LEAD BAND OF WAA ELEVATED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE BOW. IF THIS WERE TO
OCCUR IT WOULD LEAD TO TWO THINGS...AN INCREASE IN THE SEVERE
THREAT...INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME BRIEF SPIN UPS. BESIDE
THAT...THIS WOULD HELP WITH THE HEAVY RAIN TREAT AS THE WAA BAND
WOULD RESULT IN A LEAD BAND OF HEAVY RAIN OUT AHEAD OF THE SQUALL
LINE...AND THIS WOULD ALSO BE THE SAME REGION WHERE COMMA HEAD
PRECIP WOULD BE MOST LIKELY.
FOR SATURDAY...THIS LINE WILL BE FALLING APART DURING THE MORNING
OVER WRN WI. BY THE AFTERNOON...NW WINDS WILL BE DEVELOPING WITH
DRIER AIR WORKING IN. LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT WE WILL NOT
SEE ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP IN THE MPX CWA THE REST OF SATURDAY...WITH
AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING FROM THE QUAD CITIES UP TOWARD GREEN
BAY. LEFT SOME CHANCE POPS IN DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR CONTINUITY...
BUT IF HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LACK OF STORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE MPX AREA...WE COULD PROBABLY JUST GO DRY FOR
SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONGER TERM WILL FEATURE PERIODIC
PRECIPITATION EVENTS AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES PUSH THROUGH IN
THE STRONG BELT OF WESTERLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES.
THE POLAR FRONT WILL MEANDER BACK AND FORTH ACROSS OUR AREA
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST AGREEMENT FOR PRECIPITATION EARLY ON
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AND
THEN AGAIN FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THEN BECOMES MORE STATIONARY BY MID WEEK FROM NEBRASKA THROUGH
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. IT/S THE MID WEEK PERIOD THAT IS TROUBLESOME
FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG
AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. A CHECK OF THE CIPS ANALOGS SHOWS THE
CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN AMOUNTS HIGHEST FROM NORTHERN IA
THROUGH NORTHERN IL...WHICH IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE FORECAST FROM
THE 12Z ECMWF. HENCE...GRIDDED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE HIGHEST
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THE LATER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A BUILDING RIDGE IN THE
WEST WITH A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE SHOWER CHANCES...ESPECIALLY FROM FRIDAY
ONWARD AS WELL AS SPREAD OUT MORE EVENLY ACROSS THE FA. LOW/HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY (FIRST WEEK OF SUMMER) ARE
FORECAST TO BE QUITE CLOSE TO SEASONAL VALUES.
LOOKING AT THIS COMING SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN
THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS THAT A COOL FRONT WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF
OUR WI COUNTIES IN THE EVENING. HENCE...ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE EVENING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI WITH DRY WEATHER
ELSEWHERE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FORMING ACROSS SD AND MOVING EAST RAPIDLY ACROSS WESTERN AND INTO
EASTERN MN BETWEEN 7-13Z. CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR DOES SUPPORT THIS
SCENARIO AS TWO AREAS OF TSRA ARE DEVELOPING/CONTINUING TO FORM
OVER CENTRAL SD...NE INTO SE ND. BASED ON THE SPEED OF THIS
LINE...WIND GUSTS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS TSRA LINE...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW ON HOW WIDESPREAD 30-40 KT WINDS PROPAGATE EASTWARD. BEST
SCENARIO IS TO HOLD ONTO A 2-3 HR PERIOD OF SHRA AND EMBEDDED TSRA
STARTING AT KAXN/KRWF ARND 7-8Z...AND INTO KSTC BY 9-10Z. ALTHOUGH
CIGS WILL LOWER IN THE VCNTY OF THE TSRA...THE BIG FACTOR IS THE
VSBY WHICH IS LIKELY TO HOLD IN THE MVFR RANGE FOR 1-2 HRS...WITH
SMALL PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR VSBY IN HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL HOLD ONTO
THE 3SM TSRA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF IFR
VSBY OR LOWER. BEHIND THE MAIN COMPLEX OF SHRA/TSRA...MVFR/IFR
CIGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SATURDAY MORNING...WITH A SLOW RISE
DURING THE AFTN BEFORE VFR SATURDAY EVENING.
KMSP...
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A LINE OF TSRA/SHRA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AIRFIELD BETWEEN 11-13Z. VCTS IS POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS 9Z WITH AN
ISOLD TSRA AHEAD OF THIS LINE. THERE IS ALSO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A
PERIOD OF IFR/MVFR VSBY IN HEAVIER RAINFALL. THERE IS ALSO A
POSSIBILITY OF WIND GUSTS ALONG THIS LINE OF 40 KTS. BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR TIMING AND SPECIFICS. MVFR CIGS ARE ALSO
LIKELY BEHIND THE MAIN AREA OF SHRA/TSRA...AND WILL LIKELY LAST
UNTIL THE EARLY AFTN...WITH VFR CONDS SATURDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL
BE GENERALLY S/SE AHEAD OF THIS TSRA COMPLEX...WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO THE WEST/NW BY THE AFTN.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR WITH TSRA/SHRA POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS W AT 5-10 KT.
MON...VFR. WIND NW AT 5-10 KT.
TUE...VFR. CHC TSRA/SHRA. WINDS E AT 5-10 KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...JLT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
638 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
EVERYTHING STILL LOOKS ON TRACK TO SEE A BOWING MCS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. WHERE THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY IS WHAT HAPPENS OUT
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM IN SRLY FLOW AND WAA. THIS HAS RESULTED IN AN
IMPRESSIVE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL SODAK. NONE OF THE
GUIDANCE REALLY PICKED UP ON THIS ALL THAT WELL...BUT BY 00Z...THE
HRRR AND A COUPLE OF THE HOPWRF MEMBERS SHOW SOME ACTIVITY IN WRN
MN. BASED ON WHERE ACTIVITY AND INSTABILITY ARE AT THE MOMENT...
THINK THIS IS TOO FAR EAST TO SEE ANYTHING THIS EVENING AND THINK
ANY OF THIS SORT OF ACTIVITY WOULD STAY TO OUR WEST/SW...BACK WHERE
THE INSTABILITY RESIDES.
FOR TONIGHT...THERE IS STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE CAMS ON AN
BOWING MCS DEVELOPING OVER SODAK. THIS MAKES PLENTY OF SENSE WHEN
LOOKING AT THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS...WHICH CONTINUE TO SHOW A SRLY
LLJ INCREASING TO AROUND 50 KTS BENEATH A WRLY 60 KT MID-LEVEL JET.
THE WAVE THAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS MT. STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO BUILD IN ERN MONTANA
BETWEEN 3 AND 5 PM AND CONGEAL INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS
BETWEEN 7 AND 10 PM ALONG THE WRN NORTH/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. STORM
MOTION OFF THE HI-RES MODELS IS NEARLY 50 MPH...WHICH MATCHES UP
WELL WITH THE FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS OFF THE NAM. THIS
FORWARD MOTION IS WHAT WILL DRIVE THE HIGH WIND THREAT THIS
EVENING...BUT WILL ALSO DIMINISH PRECIPITATION TOTALS THAT WE SEE.
THOUGH PWATS UP NEAR 1.5 INCHES FAVOR A HEAVY RAIN THREAT...THE
FORWARD MOTION OF THE SYSTEM WILL REALLY CUT DOWN ON RAINFALL TOTALS
AND THINK ANY FLASH FLOOD THREAT WE HAVE TONIGHT WOULD COME WITHIN
THE COMMA HEAD OF A MATURE MCS IF ONE WERE TO DEVELOP.
AS FOR TIMING THIS SYSTEM IN THE GRIDS...GIVEN THE SPEED ITS
MOVING...FOLLOWED THE FASTER CAMS. THIS RESULTED IN SOMETHING CLOSE
TO WHAT THE HRRR HAS...SWITCHING TO THE HIRES-ARW ONCE WE GET PAST
THE 15 HOURS OF THE HRRR. ONE CONCERN FOR SEEING CONVECTION EARLIER
IS SOME OF THE CAMS ARE ALSO SHOWING A LEAD BAND OF WAA ELEVATED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE BOW. IF THIS WERE TO
OCCUR IT WOULD LEAD TO TWO THINGS...AN INCREASE IN THE SEVERE
THREAT...INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME BRIEF SPIN UPS. BESIDE
THAT...THIS WOULD HELP WITH THE HEAVY RAIN TREAT AS THE WAA BAND
WOULD RESULT IN A LEAD BAND OF HEAVY RAIN OUT AHEAD OF THE SQUALL
LINE...AND THIS WOULD ALSO BE THE SAME REGION WHERE COMMA HEAD
PRECIP WOULD BE MOST LIKELY.
FOR SATURDAY...THIS LINE WILL BE FALLING APART DURING THE MORNING
OVER WRN WI. BY THE AFTERNOON...NW WINDS WILL BE DEVELOPING WITH
DRIER AIR WORKING IN. LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT WE WILL NOT
SEE ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP IN THE MPX CWA THE REST OF SATURDAY...WITH
AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING FROM THE QUAD CITIES UP TOWARD GREEN
BAY. LEFT SOME CHANCE POPS IN DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR CONTINUITY...
BUT IF HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LACK OF STORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE MPX AREA...WE COULD PROBABLY JUST GO DRY FOR
SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONGER TERM WILL FEATURE PERIODIC
PRECIPITATION EVENTS AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES PUSH THROUGH IN
THE STRONG BELT OF WESTERLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES.
THE POLAR FRONT WILL MEANDER BACK AND FORTH ACROSS OUR AREA
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST AGREEMENT FOR PRECIPITATION EARLY ON
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AND
THEN AGAIN FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THEN BECOMES MORE STATIONARY BY MID WEEK FROM NEBRASKA THROUGH
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. IT/S THE MID WEEK PERIOD THAT IS TROUBLESOME
FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG
AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. A CHECK OF THE CIPS ANALOGS SHOWS THE
CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN AMOUNTS HIGHEST FROM NORTHERN IA
THROUGH NORTHERN IL...WHICH IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE FORECAST FROM
THE 12Z ECMWF. HENCE...GRIDDED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE HIGHEST
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THE LATER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A BUILDING RIDGE IN THE
WEST WITH A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE SHOWER CHANCES...ESPECIALLY FROM FRIDAY
ONWARD AS WELL AS SPREAD OUT MORE EVENLY ACROSS THE FA. LOW/HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY (FIRST WEEK OF SUMMER) ARE
FORECAST TO BE QUITE CLOSE TO SEASONAL VALUES.
LOOKING AT THIS COMING SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN
THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS THAT A COOL FRONT WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF
OUR WI COUNTIES IN THE EVENING. HENCE...ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE EVENING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI WITH DRY WEATHER
ELSEWHERE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN SD WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN
IN THE FIRST 6 HRS WITH ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION AFFECTING KRWF/KAXN.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON AFFECTING THE AIRPORT GROUNDS. SO KEPT VCSH
OR NIL AT THIS TIME. INSTABILITY IS LACKING IN EASTERN MN THIS
EVENING...SO IF ANY ACTIVITY MOVES INTO THIS AREA...ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ISOLD. CIGS WILL BE VFR...EXCEPT IN THE
VCNTY OF THE TSRA.
AFT MIDNIGHT...A LINE OF TSRA REMAINS ON TRACK TO AFFECT KAXN/KRWF
WITH A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 6-9Z.
SOME OF THE WIND GUSTS COULD APPROACH SVR LIMITS. CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM ON THIS LINE MOVING THRU WESTERN MN AFTER MIDNIGHT. FURTHER
EAST...THIS LINE WILL LIKELY WEAKEN SOME BUT STILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOW VSBY. MVFR CIGS
WILL LIKELY OCCUR AFTER THE MAIN AREA OF SHRA/TSRA SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY CONTINUING THRU THE EARLY AFTN.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTH/SE TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST/NW BY SATURDAY
MORNING.
KMSP...
AN ISOLD SHRA IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 3-6Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY
LOW. THE MAIN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR AFT 9Z...WITH HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ARND 10-12Z. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AS WINDS SHIFT TO
THE WEST/NW DURING THE MORNING...AND LINGER DURING THE EARLY
AFTN.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR WITH TSRA/SHRA POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. WINDS W AT 5-10 KT.
MON...VFR. WIND NW AT 5-10 KT.
TUE...VFR. CHC TSRA/SHRA. WINDS E AT 5-10 KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...JLT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
345 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
EVERYTHING STILL LOOKS ON TRACK TO SEE A BOWING MCS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. WHERE THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY IS WHAT HAPPENS OUT
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM IN SRLY FLOW AND WAA. THIS HAS RESULTED IN AN
IMPRESSIVE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL SODAK. NONE OF THE
GUIDANCE REALLY PICKED UP ON THIS ALL THAT WELL...BUT BY 00Z...THE
HRRR AND A COUPLE OF THE HOPWRF MEMBERS SHOW SOME ACTIVITY IN WRN
MN. BASED ON WHERE ACTIVITY AND INSTABILITY ARE AT THE MOMENT...
THINK THIS IS TOO FAR EAST TO SEE ANYTHING THIS EVENING AND THINK
ANY OF THIS SORT OF ACTIVITY WOULD STAY TO OUR WEST/SW...BACK WHERE
THE INSTABILITY RESIDES.
FOR TONIGHT...THERE IS STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE CAMS ON AN
BOWING MCS DEVELOPING OVER SODAK. THIS MAKES PLENTY OF SENSE WHEN
LOOKING AT THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS...WHICH CONTINUE TO SHOW A SRLY
LLJ INCREASING TO AROUND 50 KTS BENEATH A WRLY 60 KT MID-LEVEL JET.
THE WAVE THAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS MT. STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO BUILD IN ERN MONTANA
BETWEEN 3 AND 5 PM AND CONGEAL INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS
BETWEEN 7 AND 10 PM ALONG THE WRN NORTH/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. STORM
MOTION OFF THE HI-RES MODELS IS NEARLY 50 MPH...WHICH MATCHES UP
WELL WITH THE FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS OFF THE NAM. THIS
FORWARD MOTION IS WHAT WILL DRIVE THE HIGH WIND THREAT THIS
EVENING...BUT WILL ALSO DIMINISH PRECIPITATION TOTALS THAT WE SEE.
THOUGH PWATS UP NEAR 1.5 INCHES FAVOR A HEAVY RAIN THREAT...THE
FORWARD MOTION OF THE SYSTEM WILL REALLY CUT DOWN ON RAINFALL TOTALS
AND THINK ANY FLASH FLOOD THREAT WE HAVE TONIGHT WOULD COME WITHIN
THE COMMA HEAD OF A MATURE MCS IF ONE WERE TO DEVELOP.
AS FOR TIMING THIS SYSTEM IN THE GRIDS...GIVEN THE SPEED ITS
MOVING...FOLLOWED THE FASTER CAMS. THIS RESULTED IN SOMETHING CLOSE
TO WHAT THE HRRR HAS...SWITCHING TO THE HIRES-ARW ONCE WE GET PAST
THE 15 HOURS OF THE HRRR. ONE CONCERN FOR SEEING CONVECTION EARLIER
IS SOME OF THE CAMS ARE ALSO SHOWING A LEAD BAND OF WAA ELEVATED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE BOW. IF THIS WERE TO
OCCUR IT WOULD LEAD TO TWO THINGS...AN INCREASE IN THE SEVERE
THREAT...INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME BRIEF SPIN UPS. BESIDE
THAT...THIS WOULD HELP WITH THE HEAVY RAIN TREAT AS THE WAA BAND
WOULD RESULT IN A LEAD BAND OF HEAVY RAIN OUT AHEAD OF THE SQUALL
LINE...AND THIS WOULD ALSO BE THE SAME REGION WHERE COMMA HEAD
PRECIP WOULD BE MOST LIKELY.
FOR SATURDAY...THIS LINE WILL BE FALLING APART DURING THE MORNING
OVER WRN WI. BY THE AFTERNOON...NW WINDS WILL BE DEVELOPING WITH
DRIER AIR WORKING IN. LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT WE WILL NOT
SEE ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP IN THE MPX CWA THE REST OF SATURDAY...WITH
AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING FROM THE QUAD CITIES UP TOWARD GREEN
BAY. LEFT SOME CHANCE POPS IN DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR CONTINUITY...
BUT IF HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LACK OF STORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE MPX AREA...WE COULD PROBABLY JUST GO DRY FOR
SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONGER TERM WILL FEATURE PERIODIC
PRECIPITATION EVENTS AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES PUSH THROUGH IN
THE STRONG BELT OF WESTERLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES.
THE POLAR FRONT WILL MEANDER BACK AND FORTH ACROSS OUR AREA
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST AGREEMENT FOR PRECIPITATION EARLY ON
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AND
THEN AGAIN FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THEN BECOMES MORE STATIONARY BY MID WEEK FROM NEBRASKA THROUGH
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. IT/S THE MID WEEK PERIOD THAT IS TROUBLESOME
FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG
AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. A CHECK OF THE CIPS ANALOGS SHOWS THE
CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN AMOUNTS HIGHEST FROM NORTHERN IA
THROUGH NORTHERN IL...WHICH IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE FORECAST FROM
THE 12Z ECMWF. HENCE...GRIDDED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE HIGHEST
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THE LATER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A BUILDING RIDGE IN THE
WEST WITH A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE SHOWER CHANCES...ESPECIALLY FROM FRIDAY
ONWARD AS WELL AS SPREAD OUT MORE EVENLY ACROSS THE FA. LOW/HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY (FIRST WEEK OF SUMMER) ARE
FORECAST TO BE QUITE CLOSE TO SEASONAL VALUES.
LOOKING AT THIS COMING SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN
THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS THAT A COOL FRONT WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF
OUR WI COUNTIES IN THE EVENING. HENCE...ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE EVENING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI WITH DRY WEATHER
ELSEWHERE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN A SQUALL LINE COMING OUT OF SODAK AND
WORKING ACROSS MN THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE BOWING NATURE OF THE
LINE EXPECTED...FOLLOWED THE FASTER SOLUTIONS FOR TIMING THE LINE
THROUGH...WHICH IN THIS CASE WAS CLOSE TO THE ARW. WHERE
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IS IF WE WILL SEE SOME ELEVATED STORMS IN THE
WAA OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE...WHICH IS WHAT THE HRRR AND SOME OF THE
HOPWRF MEMBERS SHOW OCCURRING. IF THIS OCCURS...THIS WOULD RESULT
IN EARLIER TSRA ACTIVITY IN CENTRAL MN. ALSO FOLLOWED THE IDEA OF
THE LAV/NAM WITH SOME IFR/MVFR STRATUS DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH LESS CONFIDENCE ON HOW WIDESPREAD AND LONG
LASTING THAT WILL BE.
KMSP...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN TSRA IMPACTING MSP BETWEEN 10 AND 12Z
SAT MORNING. BY THEN...THE SEVERE PUNCH WILL LIKELY BE
LIMITED...BUT SOME GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE
LINE COMES THROUGH. HAVE MVFR CIGS IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM RIGHT
NOW FOR SATURDAY MORNING...BUT MODELS COULD BE OVERDONE WITH HOW
WIDESPREAD THOSE CIGS ARE. BY SAT AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL BE OUT OF
THE NW...BRINING IN SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR AND KEEPING ANY AFTN
CONVECTION WELL EAST OF THE TWIN CITIES.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR WITH TSRA/SHRA POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. WINDS W AT 5-10 KT.
MON...VFR. WIND NW AT 5-10 KT.
TUE...VFR. CHC TSRA/SHRA. WINDS E AT 5-10 KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
115 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH GFS 500MB HEIGHTS
AND WINDS SHOWED AROUND 50KTS OF ZONAL FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. BOOKENDING THIS ZONAL FLOW WERE
TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS...ONE OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...AND THE
OTHER OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC. THE UPSTREAM LOW IS THE ONE OF MOST
INTEREST...SINCE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW WILL
BREAK OFF INTO THE ZONAL FLOW...CROSS THE ROCKIES...AND BE THE
TRIGGER FOR HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL CARRY
OVER TO MN/WI FRIDAY NIGHT AS DISCUSSED IN MORE DETAIL IN THE LONG
TERM SECTION.
MEANWHILE...A NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ONGOING ACROSS THE
BADLANDS OF SOUTH DAKOTA WILL FALL APART BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE
TWIN CITIES. THE 19.05 HRRR DEPICTS THIS...AND THE CAUSE IS A MORE
STABLE AIRMASS...AS WELL AS SLIGHT LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. AS A
RESULT EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN CONVECTIVE DEBRIS TODAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 ACROSS MN...AND MID 70S IN
WESTERN WI. A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR WESTERN
MN WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH.
CONTINUED WITH 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR PRECIP...BUT TRIMMED DOWN THE
AREA CLOSER TO THE HIRES MODEL CONSENSUS.
925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT BLOSSOMS ACROSS EASTERN SD AND
WESTERN MN BY 06Z SATURDAY ON THE NOSE OF A 50 KT LOW LEVEL
JET. THIS SHOULD HELP FUEL THE DIURNAL CONVECTION THAT IS
EXPECTED TO HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL DAKOTAS...AND
ACCELERATE IT EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. STILL LOOKS TO BE A POTENTIAL WIND-
MAKER...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE LOSING SOME STEAM AS IT WORKS
EASTWARD INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
AT DAYBREAK SATURDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL MN. HI-RES MODELS
INDICATE A QUASI-BOW STRUCTURE WILL DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH IT IS
FORECAST TO DEINTENSIFY BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
BY 18Z SATURDAY...THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER WEST CENTRAL WI DOWN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLEARING AND SUBSEQUENT DESTABILIZATION WE
CAN TAP INTO...SHOULD SEE REDEVELOPMENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
THE COLD FRONT. SATURDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL HAVE A DECENT
CHANCE OF BEING STRONG AGAIN. HOWEVER...IT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED
THAT THE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WILL HELP PUSH THE BOUNDARY OUT OF
THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...THUS REDUCING THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS IN OUR FORECAST AREA. IF THE OVERNIGHT COMPLEX DOES NOT END
UP BEING AS STRONG AS EXPECTED...SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY
HAVE A HIGHER RISK FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS FROM CENTRAL/SOUTH
CENTRAL MN EAST ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI.
ON SUNDAY INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...THE FRONT
WOBBLES IN AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA...AS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
TRAVERSE THE FAST WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW REGIME. THERE WILL BE A
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE BOUNDARY...ALTHOUGH THAT
THREAT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY TO LIE SOUTH OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL
OVERALL...WITH A TEMPORARY UPTICK TO HIGHS IN THE 80S OVER THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN A SQUALL LINE COMING OUT OF SODAK AND
WORKING ACROSS MN THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE BOWING NATURE OF THE
LINE EXPECTED...FOLLOWED THE FASTER SOLUTIONS FOR TIMING THE LINE
THROUGH...WHICH IN THIS CASE WAS CLOSE TO THE ARW. WHERE
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IS IF WE WILL SEE SOME ELEVATED STORMS IN THE
WAA OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE...WHICH IS WHAT THE HRRR AND SOME OF THE
HOPWRF MEMBERS SHOW OCCURRING. IF THIS OCCURS...THIS WOULD RESULT
IN EARLIER TSRA ACTIVITY IN CENTRAL MN. ALSO FOLLOWED THE IDEA OF
THE LAV/NAM WITH SOME IFR/MVFR STRATUS DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH LESS CONFIDENCE ON HOW WIDESPREAD AND LONG
LASTING THAT WILL BE.
KMSP...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN TSRA IMPACTING MSP BETWEEN 10 AND 12Z
SAT MORNING. BY THEN...THE SEVERE PUNCH WILL LIKELY BE
LIMITED...BUT SOME GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE
LINE COMES THROUGH. HAVE MVFR CIGS IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM RIGHT
NOW FOR SATURDAY MORNING...BUT MODELS COULD BE OVERDONE WITH HOW
WIDESPREAD THOSE CIGS ARE. BY SAT AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL BE OUT OF
THE NW...BRINING IN SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR AND KEEPING ANY AFTN
CONVECTION WELL EAST OF THE TWIN CITIES.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR WITH TSRA/SHRA POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. WINDS W AT 5-10 KT.
MON...VFR. WIND NW AT 5-10 KT.
TUE...VFR. CHC TSRA/SHRA. WINDS E AT 5-10 KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRB/LS
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
1250 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
UPDATED FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
BRIEF UPDATE TO WINDS AND SKY COVER...MAINLY TO INCREASE WIND
SPEEDS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA WHERE BREEZY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTING WINDS OF 10 TO 15
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH IN THE BRAINERD TO GRAND RAPIDS
REGION...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. LATEST RAP MODEL
SOUNDING FOR BRD DEPICTING MIXING TO NEARLY 750 MB...RESULTING IN
25-30 KT WINDS POSSIBLY MIXING DOWN.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
RAIN IN NW MN HAS SHOWN SOME EROSION ON THE LEADING EDGE AS IT
APPROACHES NE MN. HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE ONSET OF THE RAIN AS A
RESULT. REST OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WAS DRIFTING OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT 0730Z. A CANOPY
OF CIRRUS WAS FLOATING OVER THE TOP OF THE HIGH BEING DRIVE BY SHORT
WAVE ENERGY DRIFTING OVER THE DAKOTAS. A FEW SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING
AS A RESULT OVER EASTERN ND. LATEST SHORT TERM HIRES MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER MODELS IN BRINGING THIS RAIN INTO THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE AREA JUST AFTER 12Z. THERE IS SOME EROSION
OCCURRING WITH IS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE HIGH AND
ITS DRIER AIRMASS. HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AS THIS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ALONG THE BORDER. THIS IS
ALSO IN AN AREA OF FGEN THAT STICKS NEAR THE BORDER THROUGH 18Z.
MAINTAIN THE HIGH POPS ALONG THE BORDER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
FGEN INCREASES IN THE IN THE 925MB LAYER. THIS FGEN SIGNAL THEN
LIFTS N OF THE BORDER AFTER 00Z AND THUS LOWERED THE POPS.
MODEL DIFFERENCES REVEAL THEMSELVES THIS EVENING IN REGARDS TO A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX FORECAST TO AFFECT THE AREA. A SLOWER TREND HAS
BEEN NOTED IN THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND HAVE SLOWED THE ONSET
THE OF THE STORMS A BIT. THE MODELS HAVE ALSO COME INTO A BIT BETTER
AGREEMENT THAN 24 HOURS AGO AND ARE POINTING TO THE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX BEING FARTHER SOUTH. THIS IS CONFIRMED BY THE MODELS HAVING
THE THE HIGHEST MUCAPE AXIS OVER SOUTHERN MN BY 12Z SATURDAY. BEST
FGEN FORCING IS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN AND HAVE ALIGNED THE
HIGHER POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE REGION. THERE WILL BE AN
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER TONIGHT AS
WELL. THESE STORMS ARE IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT SHORT WAVE TROF
DIVING SEWD FROM NE ND/SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THEN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
BY 12Z SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL WITH
PWATS APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES...BUT WILL REFRAIN FROM HEAVY RAIN
WORDING ATTM.
MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME LARGER ON SATURDAY. THE QUASI ZONAL UPPER
FLOW WILL BE ANCHORED OVER THE AREA. AS A RESULT...A PARADE OF SHORT
WAVES WILL PLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MORE THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY
MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT IN THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST
SHORT WAVE CRUISES THROUGH NORTHERN MN IN THE MORNING AND NW WI IN
THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE DEPARTING. HAVE HIGH POPS IN THE MORNING
ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. PWATS DECREASE THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY SO NO MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN. LAPSE RATES ARE
MARGINAL FOR ANY SEVERE HAIL AND AM NOT ANTICIPATING ANY OF THE
STORMS TO BE SEVERE ON SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACTIVE THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. UPPER TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST SAT
EVENING WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
COULD SEE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS ON SUNDAY...BUT
THE MAIN PUSH OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE SEEN WITH THE NEXT INCOMING
DISTURBANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. MODEST WAA AND A
STRONG PUSH OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE
REGION MON NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM TRACKS EWD ACROSS THE MID MS
VALLEY REGION...WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND. THE NRN EDGE OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRUSH THE SRN COUNTIES WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS LATE TUE INTO WED. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN
DRY. AN UPPER TROUGH RIDES IN FROM THE NW ON THURSDAY...BUT DOES NOT
HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO REALLY DO TOO MUCH.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MOST OF NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN
ON THE WARM SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
THE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THEN WEAKEN NEAR SUNSET. THERE
WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES OF -SHRA AND -TSRA LATE THIS
EVENING...MAINLY OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA NEAR WHERE THERE WILL
BE A STATIONARY FRONT. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
SPREAD TO THE REST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS THAT FRONT BEGINS TO
SAG SOUTH AND A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET STREAM DEVELOPS OVER THE
REGION. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF LLWS AT TERMINALS
TONIGHT AND LINGERING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE THREAT OF
OVERNIGHT THUNDER WILL BE GREATER FOR THE KINL/KHIB/KDLH AREAS.
THE KBRD AND KHYR ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY JUST
-RA...POSSIBLY GUSTY WINDS...FROM THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF STORM
COMPLEX THAT WILL LIKELY HIT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MINNESOTA AND
ADJACENT AREAS OF WISCONSIN.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A TRANSITION FROM VFR TO IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
EARLY SATURDAY WITH LOWERING CIGS AND VSBY DUE TO RAINY AND MISTY
CONDITIONS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH IMPROVEMENT IN THE LATE MORNING TO
RETURN TO MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS BY THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 72 59 75 55 / 10 60 70 20
INL 71 59 73 52 / 70 60 50 10
BRD 77 63 80 58 / 20 70 60 10
HYR 72 61 75 58 / 0 50 80 20
ASX 72 60 73 54 / 0 60 70 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...TENTINGER
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
939 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
BRIEF UPDATE TO WINDS AND SKY COVER...MAINLY TO INCREASE WIND
SPEEDS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA WHERE BREEZY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTING WINDS OF 10 TO 15
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH IN THE BRAINERD TO GRAND RAPIDS
REGION...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. LATEST RAP MODEL
SOUNDING FOR BRD DEPICTING MIXING TO NEARLY 750 MB...RESULTING IN
25-30 KT WINDS POSSIBLY MIXING DOWN.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
RAIN IN NW MN HAS SHOWN SOME EROSION ON THE LEADING EDGE AS IT
APPROACHES NE MN. HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE ONSET OF THE RAIN AS A
RESULT. REST OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WAS DRIFTING OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT 0730Z. A CANOPY
OF CIRRUS WAS FLOATING OVER THE TOP OF THE HIGH BEING DRIVE BY SHORT
WAVE ENERGY DRIFTING OVER THE DAKOTAS. A FEW SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING
AS A RESULT OVER EASTERN ND. LATEST SHORT TERM HIRES MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER MODELS IN BRINGING THIS RAIN INTO THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE AREA JUST AFTER 12Z. THERE IS SOME EROSION
OCCURRING WITH IS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE HIGH AND
ITS DRIER AIRMASS. HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AS THIS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ALONG THE BORDER. THIS IS
ALSO IN AN AREA OF FGEN THAT STICKS NEAR THE BORDER THROUGH 18Z.
MAINTAIN THE HIGH POPS ALONG THE BORDER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
FGEN INCREASES IN THE IN THE 925MB LAYER. THIS FGEN SIGNAL THEN
LIFTS N OF THE BORDER AFTER 00Z AND THUS LOWERED THE POPS.
MODEL DIFFERENCES REVEAL THEMSELVES THIS EVENING IN REGARDS TO A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX FORECAST TO AFFECT THE AREA. A SLOWER TREND HAS
BEEN NOTED IN THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND HAVE SLOWED THE ONSET
THE OF THE STORMS A BIT. THE MODELS HAVE ALSO COME INTO A BIT BETTER
AGREEMENT THAN 24 HOURS AGO AND ARE POINTING TO THE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX BEING FARTHER SOUTH. THIS IS CONFIRMED BY THE MODELS HAVING
THE THE HIGHEST MUCAPE AXIS OVER SOUTHERN MN BY 12Z SATURDAY. BEST
FGEN FORCING IS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN AND HAVE ALIGNED THE
HIGHER POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE REGION. THERE WILL BE AN
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER TONIGHT AS
WELL. THESE STORMS ARE IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT SHORT WAVE TROF
DIVING SEWD FROM NE ND/SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THEN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
BY 12Z SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL WITH
PWATS APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES...BUT WILL REFRAIN FROM HEAVY RAIN
WORDING ATTM.
MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME LARGER ON SATURDAY. THE QUASI ZONAL UPPER
FLOW WILL BE ANCHORED OVER THE AREA. AS A RESULT...A PARADE OF SHORT
WAVES WILL PLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MORE THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY
MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT IN THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST
SHORT WAVE CRUISES THROUGH NORTHERN MN IN THE MORNING AND NW WI IN
THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE DEPARTING. HAVE HIGH POPS IN THE MORNING
ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. PWATS DECREASE THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY SO NO MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN. LAPSE RATES ARE
MARGINAL FOR ANY SEVERE HAIL AND AM NOT ANTICIPATING ANY OF THE
STORMS TO BE SEVERE ON SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACTIVE THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. UPPER TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST SAT
EVENING WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
COULD SEE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS ON SUNDAY...BUT
THE MAIN PUSH OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE SEEN WITH THE NEXT INCOMING
DISTURBANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. MODEST WAA AND A
STRONG PUSH OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE
REGION MON NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM TRACKS EWD ACROSS THE MID MS
VALLEY REGION...WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND. THE NRN EDGE OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRUSH THE SRN COUNTIES WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS LATE TUE INTO WED. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN
DRY. AN UPPER TROUGH RIDES IN FROM THE NW ON THURSDAY...BUT DOES NOT
HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO REALLY DO TOO MUCH.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MOST OF NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN
ON THE WARM SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH AN AREA OF WEAKENING CONVECTION OVER THE DAKOTAS MOVING INTO
NRN MN BY THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH RE-DEVELOPMENT IN THE
DAKOTAS LATER TODAY. THIS CONVECTION WILL MOVE EWD TONIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THROUGH SAT
MORNING. COULD SEE IFR VSBYS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS...WITH
MVFR CIGS. SOUTH WINDS COULD BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 72 59 75 55 / 10 60 70 20
INL 71 59 73 52 / 70 60 50 10
BRD 77 63 80 58 / 20 70 60 10
HYR 72 61 75 58 / 0 50 80 20
ASX 72 60 73 54 / 0 60 70 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJM
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...TENTINGER
AVIATION...TENTINGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
538 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 529 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH GFS 500MB HEIGHTS
AND WINDS SHOWED AROUND 50KTS OF ZONAL FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. BOOKENDING THIS ZONAL FLOW WERE
TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS...ONE OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...AND THE
OTHER OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC. THE UPSTREAM LOW IS THE ONE OF MOST
INTEREST...SINCE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW WILL
BREAK OFF INTO THE ZONAL FLOW...CROSS THE ROCKIES...AND BE THE
TRIGGER FOR HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL CARRY
OVER TO MN/WI FRIDAY NIGHT AS DISCUSSED IN MORE DETAIL IN THE LONG
TERM SECTION.
MEANWHILE...A NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ONGOING ACROSS THE
BADLANDS OF SOUTH DAKOTA WILL FALL APART BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE
TWIN CITIES. THE 19.05 HRRR DEPICTS THIS...AND THE CAUSE IS A MORE
STABLE AIRMASS...AS WELL AS SLIGHT LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. AS A
RESULT EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN CONVECTIVE DEBRIS TODAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 ACROSS MN...AND MID 70S IN
WESTERN WI. A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR WESTERN
MN WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH.
CONTINUED WITH 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR PRECIP...BUT TRIMMED DOWN THE
AREA CLOSER TO THE HIRES MODEL CONSENSUS.
925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT BLOSSOMS ACROSS EASTERN SD AND
WESTERN MN BY 06Z SATURDAY ON THE NOSE OF A 50 KT LOW LEVEL
JET. THIS SHOULD HELP FUEL THE DIURNAL CONVECTION THAT IS
EXPECTED TO HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL DAKOTAS...AND
ACCELERATE IT EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. STILL LOOKS TO BE A POTENTIAL WIND-
MAKER...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE LOSING SOME STEAM AS IT WORKS
EASTWARD INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
AT DAYBREAK SATURDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL MN. HI-RES MODELS
INDICATE A QUASI-BOW STRUCTURE WILL DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH IT IS
FORECAST TO DEINTENSIFY BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
BY 18Z SATURDAY...THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER WEST CENTRAL WI DOWN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLEARING AND SUBSEQUENT DESTABILIZATION WE
CAN TAP INTO...SHOULD SEE REDEVELOPMENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
THE COLD FRONT. SATURDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL HAVE A DECENT
CHANCE OF BEING STRONG AGAIN. HOWEVER...IT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED
THAT THE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WILL HELP PUSH THE BOUNDARY OUT OF
THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...THUS REDUCING THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS IN OUR FORECAST AREA. IF THE OVERNIGHT COMPLEX DOES NOT END
UP BEING AS STRONG AS EXPECTED...SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY
HAVE A HIGHER RISK FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS FROM CENTRAL/SOUTH
CENTRAL MN EAST ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI.
ON SUNDAY INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...THE FRONT
WOBBLES IN AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA...AS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
TRAVERSE THE FAST WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW REGIME. THERE WILL BE A
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE BOUNDARY...ALTHOUGH THAT
THREAT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY TO LIE SOUTH OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL
OVERALL...WITH A TEMPORARY UPTICK TO HIGHS IN THE 80S OVER THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 529 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. THE STORMS THAT ARE CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA ARE EXPECTED TO FALL APART THIS MORNING...AND NOT IMPACT
THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT BRINGING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND POTENTIALLY
GUSTY WINDS. TRIED TO TIME THE CONVECTION WITH A NARROW TEMPO
WINDOW BASED ON THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE OF SEVERAL HIRES MODELS.
KMSP...
WIND FORECAST THIS MORNING IS A CHALLENGE WITH LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS SHOWING SHOWING BOTH A NORTHERLY AND SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AT
TIMES. FEEL THAT NORTHERLY COMPONENT MAY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT HOUR
OR SO...BUT THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT SHOULD BECOME MORE PROMINENT
BY MID MORNING AS MIXING INCREASES. TIMING OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL BE WEAKENING WHEN IT REACHES
MSP...APPEARS TO BE CENTERED AROUND 10Z SATURDAY MORNING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...TSRA/RA LIKELY EARLY WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE...WINDS SSW AT
10G15 KT.
SUN...VFR WITH TSRA/SHRA POSSIBLE. WINDS W AT 5-10 KT.
MON...VFR WITH TSRA/SHRA POSSIBLE. WIND N AT 5-10 KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRB/LS
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
406 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH GFS 500MB HEIGHTS
AND WINDS SHOWED AROUND 50KTS OF ZONAL FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. BOOKENDING THIS ZONAL FLOW WERE
TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS...ONE OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...AND THE
OTHER OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC. THE UPSTREAM LOW IS THE ONE OF MOST
INTEREST...SINCE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW WILL
BREAK OFF INTO THE ZONAL FLOW...CROSS THE ROCKIES...AND BE THE
TRIGGER FOR HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL CARRY
OVER TO MN/WI FRIDAY NIGHT AS DISCUSSED IN MORE DETAIL IN THE LONG
TERM SECTION.
MEANWHILE...A NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ONGOING ACROSS THE
BADLANDS OF SOUTH DAKOTA WILL FALL APART BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE
TWIN CITIES. THE 19.05 HRRR DEPICTS THIS...AND THE CAUSE IS A MORE
STABLE AIRMASS...AS WELL AS SLIGHT LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. AS A
RESULT EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN CONVECTIVE DEBRIS TODAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 ACROSS MN...AND MID 70S IN
WESTERN WI. A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR WESTERN
MN WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH.
CONTINUED WITH 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR PRECIP...BUT TRIMMED DOWN THE
AREA CLOSER TO THE HIRES MODEL CONSENSUS.
925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT BLOSSOMS ACROSS EASTERN SD AND
WESTERN MN BY 06Z SATURDAY ON THE NOSE OF A 50 KT LOW LEVEL
JET. THIS SHOULD HELP FUEL THE DIURNAL CONVECTION THAT IS
EXPECTED TO HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL DAKOTAS...AND
ACCELERATE IT EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. STILL LOOKS TO BE A POTENTIAL WIND-
MAKER...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE LOSING SOME STEAM AS IT WORKS
EASTWARD INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
AT DAYBREAK SATURDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL MN. HI-RES MODELS
INDICATE A QUASI-BOW STRUCTURE WILL DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH IT IS
FORECAST TO DEINTENSIFY BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
BY 18Z SATURDAY...THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER WEST CENTRAL WI DOWN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLEARING AND SUBSEQUENT DESTABILIZATION WE
CAN TAP INTO...SHOULD SEE REDEVELOPMENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
THE COLD FRONT. SATURDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL HAVE A DECENT
CHANCE OF BEING STRONG AGAIN. HOWEVER...IT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED
THAT THE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WILL HELP PUSH THE BOUNDARY OUT OF
THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...THUS REDUCING THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS IN OUR FORECAST AREA. IF THE OVERNIGHT COMPLEX DOES NOT END
UP BEING AS STRONG AS EXPECTED...SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY
HAVE A HIGHER RISK FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS FROM CENTRAL/SOUTH
CENTRAL MN EAST ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI.
ON SUNDAY INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...THE FRONT
WOBBLES IN AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA...AS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
TRAVERSE THE FAST WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW REGIME. THERE WILL BE A
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE BOUNDARY...ALTHOUGH THAT
THREAT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY TO LIE SOUTH OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL
OVERALL...WITH A TEMPORARY UPTICK TO HIGHS IN THE 80S OVER THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. EASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
BY MID MORNING...WITH GUSTS NEAR 20KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO MOVE OUT OF THE DAKOTAS AND INTO MN/WI
FRIDAY NIGHT. HANDLED THAT WITH A VCTS GROUP.
KMSP...
VFR THROUGHOUT. NO NOTEWORTHY DIFFERENCES FROM GENERAL AVIATION
DISCUSSION
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...TSRA/RA LIKELY EARLY...WINDS SSW AT 10G15 KT.
SUN...VFR WITH TSRA/SHRA POSSIBLE. WINDS W AT 5-10 KT.
MON...VFR WITH TSRA/SHRA POSSIBLE. WIND N AT 5-10 KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRB/LS
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
1007 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
.UPDATE...NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ALONG THE MS HIGHWAY 12 CORRIDOR BETWEEN
HOLLANDALE AND TCHULA. ELSEWHERE AREAS OF LOW STRATUS WERE BEGINNING
TO SCATTER OUT, ALLOWING FOR INCREASING INSOLATION. LATEST HIGH RES
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH OF I-20, THOUGH A
MOIST AIRMASS EXISTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER
CANNOT BE RULED OUT FARTHER SOUTH. 12Z SOUNDINGS/LATEST MESOANALYSIS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST MARGINAL LAPSE RATES WILL HELP LIMIT STRONG
STORM/WET MICROBURST THREAT. /DL/
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS WERE HANGING ON THIS MORNING A LITTLE LONGER
THAN EXPECTED IN THE VERY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. CIGS WL CONTINUE TO RISE ABOVE 3KFT BY 17Z AND VFR CONDITIONS
WL PREVAIL THIS AFTN INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE GLH/GWO/GTR
CORRIDOR TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH DEPARTING TROPICAL DEPRESSION
BILL...BUT EXPECT ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS
EVENING. IN FOLLOWING PERSISTENCE...WOULD EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
LOWER STRATUS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. /22/EC/
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 448 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015/
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL WILL FINALLY DEPART THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...EVENTUALLY ALLOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO EXPAND AND
INTENSIFY OVER THE ARKLAMISS. FOR TODAY...LINGERING ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL COMBINE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AIRMASS ~ 1.75 INCHES TO INCREASE SHOWER/TSTM
CHANCES MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-2O CORRIDOR. ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY THIS MORNING IS FORECAST BY THE HRRR TO INCREASE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH COVERAGE PEAKING BY MID MORNING. POOR LAPSE
RATES WITH VERTICAL TOTALS ~25 AND 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES GENERALLY LESS
THAN 8 DEG C/KM WILL LIMIT MICROBURST POTENTIAL...BUT LOW/MID LEVEL
FLOW OF 15-20 KTS WILL SUPPORT MULTICELL STORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG
WIND GUSTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH
SUNSET AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE INCREASES OVER THE REGION.
FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECT SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE TO BE MORE
DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER HEAT AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES PERHAPS HELPING TO INCREASE THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY. BUT
THE OVERALL LACK OF FORCING/FOCUSING AND LIGHT FLOW SHOULD LIMIT
STORM COVERAGE. HEAT STRESS WILL START TO INCREASE THIS WEEKEND WITH
MAX HEAT INDICES GETTING UP TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 100 DEG F. /EC/
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINATE FEATURE OVER THE CWA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE THE WORK WEEK. HOT AND VERY HUMID CONDITIONS
DURING THIS TIME...HIGHS PEAKING IN THE MIDDLE 90S AND DEW POINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S...WILL LIKELY RESULT IN DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES MOST
AFTERNOONS NEXT WEEK AS THEY`RE PROGGED TO RANGE BETWEEN 100-105F.
THIS LEVEL OF HEAT WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HEAT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO BE CONFINED TO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS AND LIMITED TO MAINLY ISOLATED STORMS. HOWEVER...
MODELS DO SUGGEST THAT EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE COULD INTERACT WITH CONVECTION ALONG THE SEABREEZE DURING THE
WEEK. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY HELP TO INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...THEN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AND PERHAPS
THURSDAY.
AS FRIDAY ROLLS AROUND...MODELS ARE CURRENTLY IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
RIDGE BEGINNING TO RETROGRADE WEST OF THE CWA. THIS WILL ALLOW A
TROUGH TO BEGIN DIGGING SOUTH AND INTO THE DEEP SOUTH HEADING INTO
WHAT WILL THEN BE THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOT HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST DURING THIS TIME...WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. /19/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 92 73 94 73 / 20 7 13 6
MERIDIAN 93 72 94 73 / 23 9 15 10
VICKSBURG 92 73 93 71 / 17 6 14 7
HATTIESBURG 94 74 95 74 / 13 8 18 14
NATCHEZ 90 73 91 72 / 13 5 21 15
GREENVILLE 94 75 94 74 / 25 7 9 5
GREENWOOD 92 74 93 74 / 39 11 8 5
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
DL/22/EC/19
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
448 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL WILL FINALLY DEPART THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...EVENTUALLY ALLOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO EXPAND AND
INTENSIFY OVER THE ARKLAMISS. FOR TODAY...LINGERING ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL COMBINE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AIRMASS ~ 1.75 INCHES TO INCREASE SHOWER/TSTM
CHANCES MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-2O CORRIDOR. ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY THIS MORNING IS FORECAST BY THE HRRR TO INCREASE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH COVERAGE PEAKING BY MID MORNING. POOR LAPSE
RATES WITH VERTICAL TOTALS ~25 AND 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES GENERALLY LESS
THAN 8 DEG C/KM WILL LIMIT MICROBURST POTENTIAL...BUT LOW/MID LEVEL
FLOW OF 15-20 KTS WILL SUPPORT MULTICELL STORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG
WIND GUSTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH
SUNSET AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE INCREASES OVER THE REGION.
FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECT SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE TO BE MORE
DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER HEAT AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES PERHAPS HELPING TO INCREASE THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY. BUT
THE OVERALL LACK OF FORCING/FOCUSING AND LIGHT FLOW SHOULD LIMIT
STORM COVERAGE. HEAT STRESS WILL START TO INCREASE THIS WEEKEND WITH
MAX HEAT INDICES GETTING UP TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 100 DEG F. /EC/
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINATE FEATURE OVER THE CWA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE THE WORK WEEK. HOT AND VERY HUMID CONDITIONS
DURING THIS TIME...HIGHS PEAKING IN THE MIDDLE 90S AND DEW POINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S...WILL LIKELY RESULT IN DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES MOST
AFTERNOONS NEXT WEEK AS THEY`RE PROGGED TO RANGE BETWEEN 100-105F.
THIS LEVEL OF HEAT WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HEAT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO BE CONFINED TO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS AND LIMITED TO MAINLY ISOLATED STORMS. HOWEVER...
MODELS DO SUGGEST THAT EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE COULD INTERACT WITH CONVECTION ALONG THE SEABREEZE DURING THE
WEEK. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY HELP TO INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...THEN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AND PERHAPS
THURSDAY.
AS FRIDAY ROLLS AROUND...MODELS ARE CURRENTLY IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
RIDGE BEGINNING TO RETROGRADE WEST OF THE CWA. THIS WILL ALLOW A
TROUGH TO BEGIN DIGGING SOUTH AND INTO THE DEEP SOUTH HEADING INTO
WHAT WILL THEN BE THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOT HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST DURING THIS TIME...WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. /19/
.AVIATION...MVFR/IFR CATEGORY STRATUS DEVELOPING IN VERY MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL MIX UPWARD DURING MID/LATE MORNING HOURS FOLLOWED BY PREVAILING
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE GLH/GWO/GTR
CORRIDOR TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH DEPARTING TROPICAL DEPRESSION
BILL...BUT EXPECT ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS
EVENING. IN FOLLOWING PERSISTENCE...WOULD EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
LOWER STRATUS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. /EC/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 92 73 94 73 / 20 7 13 6
MERIDIAN 93 72 94 73 / 23 9 15 10
VICKSBURG 92 73 93 71 / 17 6 14 7
HATTIESBURG 94 74 95 74 / 13 8 18 14
NATCHEZ 90 73 91 72 / 13 5 21 15
GREENVILLE 94 75 94 74 / 25 7 9 5
GREENWOOD 92 74 93 74 / 39 11 8 5
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
EC/19/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
154 AM MDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.UPDATE...
LAST OF SEVERE STORMS HAS EXITED CARTER COUNTY AND HAVE CANCELLED
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WHICH WAS IN EFFECT FOR POWDER RIVER
AND CARTER COUNTIES...THOUGH WEAKER CONVECTION REMAINS AS FAR WEST
AS ROSEBUD COUNTY. CLEARING SKIES AND DRY WX EXIST ACROSS OUR WEST
HALF. JKL
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...
CURRENT FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK ON TRACK WITH SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS A GOOD POSSIBILITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING HOURS AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OUT TOWARD THE
DAKOTA BORDERS. WEAK RIDGING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA WILL
FLATTEN WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS AS A SHORTWAVE OVER IDAHO MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. AN EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW COMBINED WITH LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE FAR EAST HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S SO FAR
TODAY. SATELLITE IS SHOWING AREAS OF SUN ACROSS OUR CENTRAL ZONES
WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. CURRENTLY
BEST CAPES ARE WHERE THERE HAS BEEN SUN. EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS
AND CLOUDS ARE KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE CAPPED AND SOUNDINGS CONCUR
WITH THIS. HOWEVER...AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND MOVES OVER
OUR AREA THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO BREAK BY LATE AFTERNOON.
MAJORITY OF THE ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW STORMS FIRING WEST OF
BILLINGS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND MOVING EAST INTO THE BILLINGS AREA
BY 7 OR 8 PM. HOWEVER...SOME MODELS TAKE THE STORMS JUST NORTH AND
SOUTH OF BILLINGS SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON EXACT LOCATIONS OF
STORM DEVELOPMENT. ALL PARAMETERS POINT TO THE POSSIBILITY OF ANY
STORM CONTAINING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. MODELS THEN SHOW
INDIVIDUAL STORMS FORMING MORE OF A COMPLEX OF STORMS JUST EAST OF
BILLINGS BY MID EVENING. LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN IS NOW SHOWING A
COUPLE SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN
ROSEBUD...POWDER RIVER AND CARTER COUNTIES. ALL THE MODELS AGREE
ON MERGING THE STORMS INTO AN MCS LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY FOR OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. WE REMAIN
CONCERNED WITH THE CURRENT CAP BUT WE STILL BELIEVE IT WILL BREAK
IN PLACES.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE ACTUALLY SHOWS FRIDAY TO HAVE BETTER
CHANCES FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM EVENT THAN TODAY.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST AS TONIGHTS STORMS MAY PLACE A
ROLE IN HOW THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REACT FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
HIGHLIGHTING AREAS FROM BILLINGS EASTWARD WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
A DAMAGING WIND EVENT.
THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING TO BE LESS ACTIVE AS A MORE STABLE AIRMASS
WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. HOOLEY
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...
A FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WHILE THE ENSEMBLES WERE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
OVER THE UPCOMING PATTERN...THERE WERE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
DETAILS OF THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF.
SUN AND SUN NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE AREA AS RIDGING
MOVES OVER THE AREA. SOME ENERGY AND MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH THE
FLOW MON AND MON NIGHT BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. MODELS DISAGREED ON THE PROGRESSION
OF A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TUE AND TUE NIGHT SO LEFT INHERITED POPS
ACROSS THE AREA ALONE. DIFFERENCES CONTINUED THROUGH WED NIGHT
DUE TO THE PACIFIC WAVE...SO AGAIN MADE NO CHANGES. THE GFS SHOWED
HIGH CAPES OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA TUE
AFTERNOON THROUGH WED...AND BULK SHEAR WAS STRONG AS WELL. THE GFS
WAS STRONGER WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAN THE ECMWF...SO IF THE GFS
VERIFIES...THERE WILL BE POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TUE
AFTERNOON THROUGH WED. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THU. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL REACH INTO THE 80S WHICH IS A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. ARTHUR
&&
.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN
MT BY ABOUT 06 UTC...AND THEN EXIT SOUTHEASTERN MT BY 12 UTC. MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH STRONG WINDS...HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST CELLS. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCHULTZ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 061/084 056/081 056/080 055/084 058/083 059/082 059/085
13/T 22/T 21/B 12/T 22/T 33/T 32/T
LVM 054/083 047/079 048/081 050/083 051/083 051/081 050/085
14/T 22/T 21/B 22/T 23/T 33/T 32/T
HDN 060/087 056/082 055/081 056/086 057/085 058/084 059/086
13/T 42/T 21/B 11/B 12/T 33/T 32/T
MLS 061/086 057/081 055/080 055/081 058/082 060/081 057/082
43/T 41/B 22/W 12/T 22/T 33/T 32/T
4BQ 061/086 056/080 056/081 056/083 059/082 059/081 057/082
83/T 61/B 22/W 22/T 22/T 33/T 32/T
BHK 060/084 055/080 053/078 053/077 056/078 058/078 054/078
63/T 61/U 22/T 22/T 22/T 44/T 32/T
SHR 056/084 052/077 052/078 053/084 055/083 055/080 054/082
13/T 52/T 21/B 11/B 12/T 32/T 22/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
1108 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2015
.UPDATE...
WE HAVE ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR POWDER RIVER AND
CARTER COUNTIES DOWNSTREAM OF THE INTENSE...BUT SMALL AND BOWING
MCS WHICH IS CENTERED ON TONGUE RIVER RESERVOIR AT 11 PM MDT. THE
SEVERE STORMS ARE WELL-ORGANIZED NOW WITH IMPRESSIVE MID-ALTITUDE
RADIAL CONVERGENCE SIGNATURES INDICATIVE OF SEVERE WINDS AT THE
SURFACE. THE WATCH GOES UNTIL 5 AM MDT...BUT WILL LIKELY BE
CANCELLED MUCH EARLIER THAN THAT ONCE THE STORMS MOVE PAST THOSE
COUNTIES.
THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ELSEWHERE IS LIKELY OVER FOR THE NIGHT.
SCHULTZ
PREVIOUS UPDATE...ISSUED AT 810 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2015...
CONVECTION NEAR BIG TIMBER IS INTENSIFYING JUST BEFORE 8 PM...BUT
IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF IT WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
DOWNSTREAM WHERE THE AIR MASS IS AND HAS BEEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A RATHER STRONG CAP. WE ARE NONETHELESS MAINTAINING A MENTION
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY...
WHICH WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN ITSELF IN SOME MANNER INTO SOUTHEASTERN
MT OVERNIGHT GIVEN A NOCTURNAL 40-50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. ALL WE DID
FOR THE EVENING FORECAST UPDATE WAS ADJUST BOTH POPS AND HOURLY
TEMPERATURES BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. SCHULTZ
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...
CURRENT FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK ON TRACK WITH SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS A GOOD POSSIBILITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING HOURS AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OUT TOWARD THE
DAKOTA BORDERS. WEAK RIDGING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA WILL
FLATTEN WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS AS A SHORTWAVE OVER IDAHO MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. AN EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW COMBINED WITH LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE FAR EAST HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S SO FAR
TODAY. SATELLITE IS SHOWING AREAS OF SUN ACROSS OUR CENTRAL ZONES
WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. CURRENTLY
BEST CAPES ARE WHERE THERE HAS BEEN SUN. EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS
AND CLOUDS ARE KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE CAPPED AND SOUNDINGS CONCUR
WITH THIS. HOWEVER...AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND MOVES OVER
OUR AREA THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO BREAK BY LATE AFTERNOON.
MAJORITY OF THE ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW STORMS FIRING WEST OF
BILLINGS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND MOVING EAST INTO THE BILLINGS AREA
BY 7 OR 8 PM. HOWEVER...SOME MODELS TAKE THE STORMS JUST NORTH AND
SOUTH OF BILLINGS SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON EXACT LOCATIONS OF
STORM DEVELOPMENT. ALL PARAMETERS POINT TO THE POSSIBILITY OF ANY
STORM CONTAINING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. MODELS THEN SHOW
INDIVIDUAL STORMS FORMING MORE OF A COMPLEX OF STORMS JUST EAST OF
BILLINGS BY MID EVENING. LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN IS NOW SHOWING A
COUPLE SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN
ROSEBUD...POWDER RIVER AND CARTER COUNTIES. ALL THE MODELS AGREE
ON MERGING THE STORMS INTO AN MCS LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY FOR OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. WE REMAIN
CONCERNED WITH THE CURRENT CAP BUT WE STILL BELIEVE IT WILL BREAK
IN PLACES.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE ACTUALLY SHOWS FRIDAY TO HAVE BETTER
CHANCES FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM EVENT THAN TODAY.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST AS TONIGHTS STORMS MAY PLACE A
ROLE IN HOW THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REACT FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
HIGHLIGHTING AREAS FROM BILLINGS EASTWARD WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
A DAMAGING WIND EVENT.
THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING TO BE LESS ACTIVE AS A MORE STABLE AIRMASS
WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. HOOLEY
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...
A FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WHILE THE ENSEMBLES WERE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
OVER THE UPCOMING PATTERN...THERE WERE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
DETAILS OF THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF.
SUN AND SUN NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE AREA AS RIDGING
MOVES OVER THE AREA. SOME ENERGY AND MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH THE
FLOW MON AND MON NIGHT BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. MODELS DISAGREED ON THE PROGRESSION
OF A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TUE AND TUE NIGHT SO LEFT INHERITED POPS
ACROSS THE AREA ALONE. DIFFERENCES CONTINUED THROUGH WED NIGHT
DUE TO THE PACIFIC WAVE...SO AGAIN MADE NO CHANGES. THE GFS SHOWED
HIGH CAPES OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA TUE
AFTERNOON THROUGH WED...AND BULK SHEAR WAS STRONG AS WELL. THE GFS
WAS STRONGER WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAN THE ECMWF...SO IF THE GFS
VERIFIES...THERE WILL BE POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TUE
AFTERNOON THROUGH WED. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THU. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL REACH INTO THE 80S WHICH IS A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. ARTHUR
&&
.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WINDS...HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
CROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN MT OVERNIGHT...MOVING INTO SD BY 11 UTC.
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE WHOLE AREA ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCHULTZ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 061/084 056/081 056/080 055/084 058/083 059/082 059/085
43/T 22/T 21/B 12/T 22/T 33/T 32/T
LVM 054/083 047/079 048/081 050/083 051/083 051/081 050/085
34/T 22/T 21/B 22/T 23/T 33/T 32/T
HDN 060/087 056/082 055/081 056/086 057/085 058/084 059/086
43/T 42/T 21/B 11/B 12/T 33/T 32/T
MLS 061/086 057/081 055/080 055/081 058/082 060/081 057/082
63/T 41/B 22/W 12/T 22/T 33/T 32/T
4BQ 061/086 056/080 056/081 056/083 059/082 059/081 057/082
93/T 61/B 22/W 22/T 22/T 33/T 32/T
BHK 060/084 055/080 053/078 053/077 056/078 058/078 054/078
63/T 61/U 22/T 22/T 22/T 44/T 32/T
SHR 056/084 052/077 052/078 053/084 055/083 055/080 054/082
23/T 52/T 21/B 11/B 12/T 32/T 22/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 312 IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM MDT FRIDAY
FOR ZONES 36-37.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
659 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOW THE AREA SITTING UNDER GENERALLY
ZONAL FLOW...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS SETTLED OVER THE SWRN
COAST...WHILE LOW PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE IS MOVING ACROSS NRN MN INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH IT BEING RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE AREA. AS EXPECTED...THE FRONT HAS GRADUALLY SAGGED SOUTH
THROUGH THE DAY...AND CURRENTLY SITS ACROSS THE FAR SERN CORNER OF
THE CWA. STARTING AROUND MID MORNING...HAD A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND RUMBLES OF THUNDER DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...ENDED UP THROWING
SOME SLIGHT POPS IN THE FORECAST. SINCE THEN...HASNT BEEN ANY
INCREASE IN ACTIVITY...WITH THE SPC MESO PAGE SHOWING CAPPING IN
PLACE WITH 700MB TEMPS AROUND 14C. HASNT BEEN ANY SURPRISES WITH
TEMPERATURES OR DPTS...WITH 3 PM OBS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S IN
THE FAR NORTH TO MID 90S IN THE SOUTHEAST. HEAT INDEX VALUES HAVE
REACH NEAR 100 IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST.
THE RAP AND HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON
/BANKING ON A WEAKENING CAP/ THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE EXTREME SE CORNER OF THE CWA...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY SOME SLIGHT POPS IN THAT AREA...OTHER MODELS
SHOW NOTHING DEVELOPING. OUTSIDE OF THAT...THE EVENING HOURS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE DRY. LATER TONIGHT AND INTO A PORTION OF THE DAY
TOMORROW...CONTINUED TO CARRY THE POPS ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NRN HALF
OF THE CWA...WITH MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES. LITTLE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING...AND OVERALL COVERAGE...WITH THE
LATEST HRRR COMING IN WITH MORE ACTIVITY THAN BASICALLY ANY OTHER
MODEL. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW UPCOMING MODEL RUN TRENDS AND MONITOR
ACTIVITY TO THE W/NW THIS EVENING...AND ADJUST AS NECESSARY. AT
THIS POINT...KEPT THOSE POPS CONFINED TO AFTER 06Z...CONTINUING
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY TOMORROW...WITH A DRY AFTERNOON.
AT THE SFC...EXPECTING HIGHER PRESSURE TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT...RESULTING IN LIGHTER WINDS...BUT BECOMING MORE
E/SERLY WITH TIME. LOW PRESSURE BECOMES ORGANIZED TOMORROW OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO SET UP NEAR THE STATE LINE. MODELS SHOW THAT SERLY COMPONENT TO
THE WINDS REMAINING MAINLY OVER NEB...WITH MORE SRLY WINDS OVER NC
KS. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR
CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO TODAY...MID 80S IN THE NORTH...MID/UPPER 90S
IN THE S/SW. LOOKING AT HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 AGAIN
POSSIBLE ROUGHLY NEAR/SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING WILL BE NOTED OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
PERIOD AT 00 MONDAY. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH A STRENGTHENING RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS EXPECTED THURSDAY ONWARD. AS A RESULT...QUASI-ZONAL TO AT
TIME NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER OUR
AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH INCREASINGLY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW THURSDAY ONWARD.
STARTING WITH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...GUIDANCE
CONTINUES SHIFTING ANY APPRECIABLE CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA...MORE ALONG THE PRIMARY AXIS OF
ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. ALTHOUGH THE OPERATIONAL GFS
DOES SUGGEST A VERY ISOLATED AREA ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN
CWA COULD SEE PRECIPITATION EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THIS OUTPUT IS
THE OUTLIER WHEN COMPARED TO THE NAM AND EC WHICH BOTH KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION WELL TO OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST. GIVEN THIS...OPTED TO
GO AHEAD WITH DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS ALSO REMAIN IN THE FORECAST DURING THE DAY
MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING AS AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA PERSISTS
ACROSS THE REGION.
STARTING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO THE DAY
TUESDAY...A SUBTLE PERTURBATION ADVANCING EAST/NORTHEAST FROM THE
MID ROCKIES...MOST EVIDENT NEAR 700MB PER MODEL GUIDANCE...COULD
BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS IS A SOLUTION
SUPPORTED BY QPF FIELDS FROM THE NAM AND OPERATIONAL GFS...AND TO
A LESSER EXTENT THE EC. GIVEN THIS...OPTED TO GO AHEAD WITH 20-30%
POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...INCREASING
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP OVER OUR AREA
A THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE STRENGTHENS...THUS INCREASING THE
CHANCES FOR MULTIPLE SMALL-SCALE PERTURBATION TO CLEAR THE REGION.
AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO
THE REALIZATION OF PRECIPITATION ON ANY GIVEN DAY DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD REMAINS LOW...BUT ITS HARD TO JUSTIFY A DRY FORECAST BASED
ON MODEL GUIDANCE AND AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD AND MAINTAINED
POPS...GENERALLY IN THE 20-40% RANGE...ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RESPECTABLE VALUES OF LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
MOISTURE...WORKING IN CONCERT WITH VARYING LAPSE RATES WITH THE
PASSAGE OF UPPER TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATIONS...WILL PRESENT
POTENTIAL ENERGY VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 1000-3000J/KG RANGE EACH
DAY DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD. DEEP-LAYER BULK SHEAR OF
~30KTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THE ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE REGION. THAT SAID...FORECAST
PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM THE ACROSS THE CWA...PER THE NAM AND
OPERATIONAL GFS...SUGGEST A HEALTHY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC CAPPING
INVERSION WILL BE PRESENT EACH DAY AND WITH OMEGA REMAINING ON THE
QUESTIONABLE SIDE...ITS HARD TO SAY THAT ANY ONE DAY HAS A GREATER
CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT. OBVIOUSLY...ANY DAY THAT
CAN REALIZE CONVECTIVE INITIALIZATION WILL HAVE AT LEAST A CHANCE
OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO DEFINITIVELY MENTION SUCH CONDITIONS IN THE HWO.
GIVEN THIS...FOR THE HWO...WILL SIMPLY STATE THAT SEVERE
CONVECTION IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION DURING THE LONG-TERM
FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART
OF NEXT WEEK.
PRE-FRONTAL WARMING AHEAD OF A BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE
COULD PRESENT A VERY WARM DAY ON MONDAY..WITH GUIDANCE CURRENTLY
SUGGESTING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE READINGS COULD SPIKE TO AROUND
100 DEGREES MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...AND MORE
INTO THE 90S FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. ITS IMPORTANT TO NOTE
THAT FRONTAL POSITION WILL PLAY A CRUCIAL ROLE IN TEMPERATURE
READINGS ON MONDAY AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED. THE
INFILTRATION OF A COOLER BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS POST-FROPA SHOULD
THEN ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOW 90S TO FINISH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
FINALLY...RESULTANT HEAT INDEX READINGS MONDAY AFTERNOON ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 100-105 RANGE ACROSS OUR KANSAS COUNTIES
AND AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE MENTIONING THIS IN THE HWO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXPECT GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO...WITH WINDS SHIFTING AND BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY TOMORROW. MAY
SEE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ENCROACH ON THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AND
ON SUNDAY...AS A DISTURBANCE FROM SOUTH DAKOTA MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT THESE CLOUDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON
CONDITIONS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...ROSSI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
326 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOW THE AREA SITTING UNDER GENERALLY
ZONAL FLOW...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS SETTLED OVER THE SWRN
COAST...WHILE LOW PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE IS MOVING ACROSS NRN MN INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH IT BEING RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE AREA. AS EXPECTED...THE FRONT HAS GRADUALLY SAGGED SOUTH
THROUGH THE DAY...AND CURRENTLY SITS ACROSS THE FAR SERN CORNER OF
THE CWA. STARTING AROUND MID MORNING...HAD A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND RUMBLES OF THUNDER DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...ENDED UP THROWING
SOME SLIGHT POPS IN THE FORECAST. SINCE THEN...HASNT BEEN ANY
INCREASE IN ACTIVITY...WITH THE SPC MESO PAGE SHOWING CAPPING IN
PLACE WITH 700MB TEMPS AROUND 14C. HASNT BEEN ANY SURPRISES WITH
TEMPERATURES OR DPTS...WITH 3 PM OBS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S IN
THE FAR NORTH TO MID 90S IN THE SOUTHEAST. HEAT INDEX VALUES HAVE
REACH NEAR 100 IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST.
THE RAP AND HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON
/BANKING ON A WEAKENING CAP/ THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE EXTREME SE CORNER OF THE CWA...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY SOME SLIGHT POPS IN THAT AREA...OTHER MODELS
SHOW NOTHING DEVELOPING. OUTSIDE OF THAT...THE EVENING HOURS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE DRY. LATER TONIGHT AND INTO A PORTION OF THE DAY
TOMORROW...CONTINUED TO CARRY THE POPS ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NRN HALF
OF THE CWA...WITH MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES. LITTLE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING...AND OVERALL COVERAGE...WITH THE
LATEST HRRR COMING IN WITH MORE ACTIVITY THAN BASICALLY ANY OTHER
MODEL. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW UPCOMING MODEL RUN TRENDS AND MONITOR
ACTIVITY TO THE W/NW THIS EVENING...AND ADJUST AS NECESSARY. AT
THIS POINT...KEPT THOSE POPS CONFINED TO AFTER 06Z...CONTINUING
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY TOMORROW...WITH A DRY AFTERNOON.
AT THE SFC...EXPECTING HIGHER PRESSURE TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT...RESULTING IN LIGHTER WINDS...BUT BECOMING MORE
E/SERLY WITH TIME. LOW PRESSURE BECOMES ORGANIZED TOMORROW OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO SET UP NEAR THE STATE LINE. MODELS SHOW THAT SERLY COMPONENT TO
THE WINDS REMAINING MAINLY OVER NEB...WITH MORE SRLY WINDS OVER NC
KS. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR
CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO TODAY...MID 80S IN THE NORTH...MID/UPPER 90S
IN THE S/SW. LOOKING AT HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 AGAIN
POSSIBLE ROUGHLY NEAR/SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING WILL BE NOTED OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
PERIOD AT 00 MONDAY. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH A STRENGTHENING RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS EXPECTED THURSDAY ONWARD. AS A RESULT...QUASI-ZONAL TO AT
TIME NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER OUR
AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH INCREASINGLY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW THURSDAY ONWARD.
STARTING WITH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...GUIDANCE
CONTINUES SHIFTING ANY APPRECIABLE CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA...MORE ALONG THE PRIMARY AXIS OF
ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. ALTHOUGH THE OPERATIONAL GFS
DOES SUGGEST A VERY ISOLATED AREA ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN
CWA COULD SEE PRECIPITATION EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THIS OUTPUT IS
THE OUTLIER WHEN COMPARED TO THE NAM AND EC WHICH BOTH KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION WELL TO OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST. GIVEN THIS...OPTED TO
GO AHEAD WITH DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS ALSO REMAIN IN THE FORECAST DURING THE DAY
MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING AS AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA PERSISTS
ACROSS THE REGION.
STARTING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO THE DAY
TUESDAY...A SUBTLE PERTURBATION ADVANCING EAST/NORTHEAST FROM THE
MID ROCKIES...MOST EVIDENT NEAR 700MB PER MODEL GUIDANCE...COULD
BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS IS A SOLUTION
SUPPORTED BY QPF FIELDS FROM THE NAM AND OPERATIONAL GFS...AND TO
A LESSER EXTENT THE EC. GIVEN THIS...OPTED TO GO AHEAD WITH 20-30%
POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...INCREASING
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP OVER OUR AREA
A THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE STRENGTHENS...THUS INCREASING THE
CHANCES FOR MULTIPLE SMALL-SCALE PERTURBATION TO CLEAR THE REGION.
AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO
THE REALIZATION OF PRECIPITATION ON ANY GIVEN DAY DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD REMAINS LOW...BUT ITS HARD TO JUSTIFY A DRY FORECAST BASED
ON MODEL GUIDANCE AND AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD AND MAINTAINED
POPS...GENERALLY IN THE 20-40% RANGE...ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RESPECTABLE VALUES OF LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
MOISTURE...WORKING IN CONCERT WITH VARYING LAPSE RATES WITH THE
PASSAGE OF UPPER TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATIONS...WILL PRESENT
POTENTIAL ENERGY VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 1000-3000J/KG RANGE EACH
DAY DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD. DEEP-LAYER BULK SHEAR OF
~30KTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THE ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE REGION. THAT SAID...FORECAST
PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM THE ACROSS THE CWA...PER THE NAM AND
OPERATIONAL GFS...SUGGEST A HEALTHY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC CAPPING
INVERSION WILL BE PRESENT EACH DAY AND WITH OMEGA REMAINING ON THE
QUESTIONABLE SIDE...ITS HARD TO SAY THAT ANY ONE DAY HAS A GREATER
CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT. OBVIOUSLY...ANY DAY THAT
CAN REALIZE CONVECTIVE INITIALIZATION WILL HAVE AT LEAST A CHANCE
OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO DEFINITIVELY MENTION SUCH CONDITIONS IN THE HWO.
GIVEN THIS...FOR THE HWO...WILL SIMPLY STATE THAT SEVERE
CONVECTION IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION DURING THE LONG-TERM
FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART
OF NEXT WEEK.
PRE-FRONTAL WARMING AHEAD OF A BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE
COULD PRESENT A VERY WARM DAY ON MONDAY..WITH GUIDANCE CURRENTLY
SUGGESTING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE READINGS COULD SPIKE TO AROUND
100 DEGREES MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...AND MORE
INTO THE 90S FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. ITS IMPORTANT TO NOTE
THAT FRONTAL POSITION WILL PLAY A CRUCIAL ROLE IN TEMPERATURE
READINGS ON MONDAY AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED. THE
INFILTRATION OF A COOLER BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS POST-FROPA SHOULD
THEN ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOW 90S TO FINISH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
FINALLY...RESULTANT HEAT INDEX READINGS MONDAY AFTERNOON ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 100-105 RANGE ACROSS OUR KANSAS COUNTIES
AND AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE MENTIONING THIS IN THE HWO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH E/SE AT THIS TIME...BUT HAS
MOVED SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL AREAS. NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE BUILT IN
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THAT WAY THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH EXPECTED. LIGHTER WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...GRADUALLY TURNING MORE EASTERLY THEN
SOUTHEASTERLY WITH TIME. CURRENTLY HAVE THE TAF PERIOD
DRY...CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIP CHANCES LATE IN THE PERIOD LOW
ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY MENTION OUT FOR NOW.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...ADP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1236 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
POTENTIAL FOR NIGHTLY DEVELOPMENT OF MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS
OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MAIN
UNCERTAINTY WILL BE THE ABILITY OF THESE STORM COMPLEXES TO OVERCOME
MID LEVEL CAP IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA.
NORTHERN NEBRASKA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF MORE ACTIVE
UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD WITH
PERIODIC INTRUSION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER
BEHIND THESE SYSTEMS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. COLD FRONT LAGS BEHIND
ONGOING COMPLEX OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
LATEST RAP MODEL BRINGING FRONT INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY MID
MORNING. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE MORNING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BUT DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT AS IT TRACKS TOWARD FAR
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA REACHING THAT POSITION BY LATE AFTERNOON.
SIMILAR PATTERN INDICATED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ALSO LOOK TO BE A CHALLENGE WITH THE VARIOUS
STORM COMPLEXES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND TIMING AND LOCATION
OF FRONTS AND BOUNDARIES.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
SAME GENERAL PATTERN EXTENDS INTO MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
BEFORE PATTERN AMPILFIES BY FRIDAY WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN THE WEST
AND TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE EAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE KOMA AND KLNK SITES EARLY IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD. PUT IN A QUICK TEMPO GROUP IN FOR EACH WITH 5SM
-TSRA BETWEEN 19Z AND 20Z. CONFIDENCE NOT REAL HIGH AS CONVECTION
THAT IS ATTEMPTING TO FIRE ALONG THE FRONT HAS TO BATTLE VERY WARM
TEMPS ALOFT. AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AROUND 15G25KT THROUGH 00Z AT WHICH TIME THEY WILL DIMINISH
TO BETWEEN 05KT TO 10KT.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MEYER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
619 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
POTENTIAL FOR NIGHTLY DEVELOPMENT OF MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS
OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MAIN
UNCERTAINTY WILL BE THE ABILITY OF THESE STORM COMPLEXES TO OVERCOME
MID LEVEL CAP IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA.
NORTHERN NEBRASKA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF MORE ACTIVE
UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD WITH
PERIODIC INTRUSION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER
BEHIND THESE SYSTEMS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. COLD FRONT LAGS BEHIND
ONGOING COMPLEX OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
LATEST RAP MODEL BRINGING FRONT INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY MID
MORNING. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE MORNING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BUT DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT AS IT TRACKS TOWARD FAR
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA REACHING THAT POSITION BY LATE AFTERNOON.
SIMILAR PATTERN INDICATED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ALSO LOOK TO BE A CHALLENGE WITH THE VARIOUS
STORM COMPLEXES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND TIMING AND LOCATION
OF FRONTS AND BOUNDARIES.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
SAME GENERAL PATTERN EXTENDS INTO MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
BEFORE PATTERN AMPILFIES BY FRIDAY WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN THE WEST
AND TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE EAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH ALL 3 TAF SITES FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON SWITCHING THE WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTN AND MOST OF THE EVNG. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WE WILL SEE CU
DEVELOPMENT AT FL040-050 AT ALL SITES WITH A PERIOD OF BKN
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOMING NORTH TONIGHT WITH
MOSTLY SKY CLEAR CONDITIONS.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
359 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
POTENTIAL FOR NIGHTLY DEVELOPMENT OF MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS
OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MAIN
UNCERTAINTY WILL BE THE ABILITY OF THESE STORM COMPLEXES TO OVERCOME
MID LEVEL CAP IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA.
NORTHERN NEBRASKA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF MORE ACTIVE
UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD WITH
PERIODIC INTRUSION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER
BEHIND THESE SYSTEMS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. COLD FRONT LAGS BEHIND
ONGOING COMPLEX OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
LATEST RAP MODEL BRINGING FRONT INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY MID
MORNING. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE MORNING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BUT DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT AS IT TRACKS TOWARD FAR
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA REACHING THAT POSITION BY LATE AFTERNOON.
SIMILAR PATTERN INDICATED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ALSO LOOK TO BE A CHALLENGE WITH THE VARIOUS
STORM COMPLEXES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND TIMING AND LOCATION
OF FRONTS AND BOUNDARIES.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
SAME GENERAL PATTERN EXTENDS INTO MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
BEFORE PATTERN AMPILFIES BY FRIDAY WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN THE WEST
AND TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE EAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA COULD ROLL INTO
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z...BUT SHOULD STAY NORTH OF
KOFK. HOWEVER THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS COULD AFFECT
KOFK BRIEFLY. OTHERWISE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 25KT WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT UNTIL A COOL FRONT SLIPS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA
BETWEEN 15Z AND 21Z...TURNING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AT ALL TAF
SITES. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z WITH
50KT SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR FL015-FL020 OVERRIDING SOUTHEAST SURFACE
FLOW.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DERGAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
1150 PM PDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS AND BREEZY AFTERNOONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
HOTTEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...THICKER SMOKE HAS WORKED ITS WAY INTO THE BISHOP AREA
TONIGHT. VISIBILITY AT THE BISHOP AIRPORT HAS BEEN UP AND DOWN
BETWEEN 1.75 AND 6 MILES OVER THE LAST HOUR. THE CALIFORNIA HIGHWAY
PATROL IS NOT AWARE OF ANY NEW FIRES IN THE AREA THUS IT IS
BELIEVED THIS LOW LEVEL SMOKE IS FROM THE SKY FIRE SOUTH OF
YOSEMITE. THE CURRENT 700-500MB FLOW WOULD FAVOR TRANSPORT OVER THE
SIERRA...AND OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE WINDS ARE LIKELY FUNNELING THE SMOKE
INTO THE OWENS VALLEY. HAVE UPDATED THE WX GRIDS TO BRING A MENTION
OF SMOKE TO THAT AREA AS WELL AS IN THE MORONGO VALLEY AREA WHERE
SMOKE FROM THE LAKE FIRE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SMOKE
FROM CALIFORNIA WILDFIRES SHOULD STAY CLEAR OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT MAY BEGIN TO DRIFT TOWARD THE VALLEY BY THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. OUTSIDE OF WINDS AND TEMPERATURES...NO
OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...HOT TEMPERATURES WILL BRING HIGH DENSITY ALTITUDES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TYPICAL AFTERNOON BREEZES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SMOKE
FROM WILDFIRES BURNING IN THE SIERRA AND SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS
COULD CREATE VISIBILITY ISSUES AT BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 20KFT TO
THE EAST OF THE FIRE LOCATIONS. AS OF 645Z SMOKE WAS BEGINNING TO
IMPACT KBIH...WHERE VISIBILITY WAS OSCILLATING BETWEEN 1.75 AND 6
MILES. SMOKE SHOULD BEGIN TO THIN AFTER SUNRISE...IF NOT BEFORE.
&&
.PREV UPDATE...920 PM...NUDGED WINDS CLOSERS TO THE HRRR GUIDANCE
WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THROUGH TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
240 PM PDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO ENCOMPASS ALL OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS
INCLUDING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL BUT SHORT OF RECORD LEVELS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN
TODAY BUT WE SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY LESS HOT TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE HEAT IN THE
AFTERNOONS.
AS THE WILDFIRE SEASON GETS UNDERWAY...SMOKE COULD AFFECT SOME AREAS
OF THE CWA. IN PARTICULAR...THE LAKE FIRE WILL BRING SMOKE TO THE
MORONGO BASIN AND BE VISIBLE FROM MUCH OF SOUTHERN SAN BERNARDINO
AND MOHAVE COUNTIES.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
A DRY AND HOT PERIOD IS FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
AN UPTICK IN HUMIDITY IS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK AS AN INVERTED
TROUGH MOVES WEST ALONG NORTHERN MEXICO AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SETS UP JUST OFF THE BAJA WEST COAST.
12Z MOS GUIDANCE CAME IN WARMER WITH EXTENDED TEMPS AT KLAS BETWEEN
107-109 DEGREES OR 6-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH NO DROPOFF LATE IN
THE WEEK AS INDICATED BY EARLIER GUIDANCE. THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
SHOWS QUITE A FEW POSSIBLE FEATURES IN PLAY DURING THIS TIME FRAME
SO OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANY ACTUAL OUTCOME. CLIMATOLOGICALLY
SPEAKING, A HOTTER...DRIER PATTERN IS FAVORED SO THE FORECAST WAS
TRENDED THAT WAY BUT IF LATER MODEL FORECASTS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND A PERSISTENT SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST FLOW SETTING UP, A SERIOUS LOOK WILL NEED TO TAKEN ON
WHAT THAT WOULD MEAN FOR OUR FORECAST AREA.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
$$
UPDATES/AVIATION...WOLCOTT
PREV DISCUSSION....BERC/SALMEN
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
920 PM PDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS AND BREEZY AFTERNOONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
HOTTEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...NUDGED WINDS CLOSERS TO THE HRRR GUIDANCE WHICH SEEMS TO
HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THROUGH TONIGHT. NO FURTHER UPDATES PLANNED THIS
EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
240 PM PDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO ENCOMPASS ALL OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS
INCLUDING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL BUT SHORT OF RECORD LEVELS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN
TODAY BUT WE SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY LESS HOT TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE HEAT IN THE
AFTERNOONS.
AS THE WILDFIRE SEASON GETS UNDERWAY...SMOKE COULD AFFECT SOME AREAS
OF THE CWA. IN PARTICULAR...THE LAKE FIRE WILL BRING SMOKE TO THE
MORONGO BASIN AND BE VISIBLE FROM MUCH OF SOUTHERN SAN BERNARDINO
AND MOHAVE COUNTIES.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
A DRY AND HOT PERIOD IS FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
AN UPTICK IN HUMIDITY IS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK AS AN INVERTED
TROUGH MOVES WEST ALONG NORTHERN MEXICO AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SETS UP JUST OFF THE BAJA WEST COAST.
12Z MOS GUIDANCE CAME IN WARMER WITH EXTENDED TEMPS AT KLAS BETWEEN
107-109 DEGREES OR 6-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH NO DROPOFF LATE IN
THE WEEK AS INDICATED BY EARLIER GUIDANCE. THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
SHOWS QUITE A FEW POSSIBLE FEATURES IN PLAY DURING THIS TIME FRAME
SO OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANY ACTUAL OUTCOME. CLIMATOLOGICALLY
SPEAKING, A HOTTER...DRIER PATTERN IS FAVORED SO THE FORECAST WAS
TRENDED THAT WAY BUT IF LATER MODEL FORECASTS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND A PERSISTENT SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST FLOW SETTING UP, A SERIOUS LOOK WILL NEED TO TAKEN ON
WHAT THAT WOULD MEAN FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. &&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SMOKE
FROM CALIFORNIA WILDFIRES SHOULD STAY CLEAR OF THE AREA TODAY.
OUTSIDE OF WINDS AND TEMPERATURES...NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...HOT TEMPERATURES WILL BRING HIGH DENSITY ALTITUDES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TYPICAL AFTERNOON BREEZES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ELEVATED
SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES BURNING IN THE SIERRA AND SAN BERNARDINO
MOUNTAINS COULD CREATE VISIBILITY ISSUES AT ALTITUDE TO THE EAST OF
THE FIRE LOCATIONS.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WOLCOTT
PREV DISCUSSION...BERC/SALMEN
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
740 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL WEAKEN THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL APPROACHES THE REGION FROM
THE WEST. THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN NEXT WEEK AS A
STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE
VIRGINIAS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM FRIDAY...
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH A VEIL OF HIGHS CLOUDS TO START THE DAY. MANY
OF THE SAME WEATHER FEATURES THAT HAVE BEEN AROUND FOR THE
PAST DAY OR TWO ARE STILL PRESENT TODAY. THE PERSISTENT
SOUTHEAST RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTH TODAY AND HEIGHTS FALL A BIT
RESULTING IN MAXES TODAY THAT ARE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER
THAN THURSDAY. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM 91 IN THE TRIAD TO 98
NEAR THE SC BORDER.
A HEAT ADVISORY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN...THE SANDHILLS AND THE SOUTHEAST
PIEDMONT. HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THESE AREAS WILL RANGE FROM 101
TO 105 AGAIN TODAY MAKING IT THE 3RD OR 4TH DAY THIS WEEK WITH
SUCH HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
FOCUS INITIALLY ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN PIEDMONT IN A
REGION OF WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MODEST BULK SHEAR
VALUES. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN IN A REGION OF MODERATE
TO EVEN STRONG INSTABILITY AND RAP PROGGED DCAPE VALUES
GREATER THAN 1300 J/KG. SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...THE MAIN SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL BE FROM LOW END ORGANIZED OR MULTICELL
STORMS PRODUCING DOWNBURST WINDS. -BLAES
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT FRIDAY...
CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE ONGOING TONIGHT AT THE START OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE CONVECTION WILL SHIFT EASTWARD WITH TIME
AND DEMONSTRATE A SLOW WEAKENING LATE IN THE EVENING AND DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE 60 TO 75 RANGE.
THE REMNANTS OF BILL WILL MOVE FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON SATURDAY. AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND THE WEAKENING RIDGE WILL RESULT IN MAX
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR OR JUST A NUDGE COOLER THAN FRIDAY.
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON... MOST FAVORED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT
IN PROXIMITY TO THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND DEEP MOISTURE.
-BLAES
&&
..LONG TERM/SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM FRIDAY...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT:
REMNANTS OF TC BILL...PROGGED TO BE INVOF THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEY
REGION SATURDAY MORNING WILL FINALLY GET PICKED BY THE MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES ON SATURDAY AND WILL GET SWEPT EASTWARD THROUGH THE
REGION...SHEARING ALONG THE WAY INTO A COMPACT OPEN TROUGH AS IT
CROSSES THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY.
NOT QUITE THE MOST FAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL STABILIZE OVERNIGHT...BUT THERE WILL BE COPIOUS CAPE ABOVE THE
INVERSION THAT WILL HELP CONVECTION TO SUSTAIN OVERNIGHT AS PWATS
INCREASE TO ~2.0". EXPECT POPS TO INCREASE LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FROM THE WEST AND SPREAD EAST
OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO LOW
LIKELY/HIGH CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER IN PROXIMITY TO THE
BETTER FORCING...TO SMALL CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH.
RAIN SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING THE COASTAL PLAIN BY MID
MORNING WITH FCST SOUNDINGS SHOWING PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE/WARMING
ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING TROUGH THAT WILL SUPPRESS
CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON .
WHILE ANY LINGERING MORNING CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUDINESS MAY RESULT IN A SLUGGISH WARM-UP...FULL SUN DURING THE
AFTERNOON WILL SEND TEMPERATURES SOARING TO WHAT WE HAVE COME
ACCUSTOM TO LATELY. HIGHS TO THE MID 90S NORTH AND UPPER 90S SOUTH.
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
ZONAL FLOW ON MONDAY WILL QUICKLY VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY AS AN UPPER
RIDGE AMPLIFIES IN THE MIDWEST AND MIGRATES EAST THROUGH THURSDAY.
NO RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IS IN SIGHT FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK WITH
PROJECTED LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES 1440-1450 METERS WHILE H8
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO HOVER BETWEEN 20 TO 22C...WHICH WILL
EASILY SUPPORT HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE MID 90S NW TO LOWER 100-102
ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. THESE HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL RESULT IN A A PROLONGED
4 TO 5 CONSECUTIVE DAY STRETCH OF HEAT INDICES OF 102 TO 105 RANGE
ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL
LIKELY WARRANT FUTURE HEAT ADVISORIES FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK.
STRONG ADIABATIC HEATING WILL SUPPORT SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
OF CONVECTION EACH DAY...WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES IN THE FAR WEST
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS WITH INLAND
PENETRATION OF SEABREEZE. DISTURBANCES IN THE AFOREMENTIONED NW FLOW
ALOFT COULD PROVIDE HIGHER/MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES...WILL WOULD
GREATLY OFFER SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT(FINGERS CROSSED)...HOWEVER
MODEL CONFIDENCE IN SUCH MESOSCALE FEATURES THIS FAR OUT IS TOO LOW
AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 740 AM THURSDAY...
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED TO JUST A ROGUE
SHOWER OR TWO NOTED AT DAYBREAK WITH AN AREA OF SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN PIEDMONT. A FEW NON TAF SITE
LOCATIONS WERE REPORTING SOME MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS TODAY WITH A VEIL OF
HIGH CIRRUS. DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING
WITH ANOTHER STORMY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING EXPECTED.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIALLY BE MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE TRIAD AREA
AND TRANSITION EASTWARD AS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. THE CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY
DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATE IN THE EVENING...ALTHOUGH
SOME PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
SATURDAY. THE SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD WILL REMAIN WEAK TODAY
RESULTING IN GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
THAT SHOULD VEER AROUND TO MORE NORTHERLY LATER TODAY.
LOOKING BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY MAY
FEATURE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE BEFORE MORE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING STORMS ARRIVE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. -BLAES
&&
.CLIMATE...
REC
REC HI
DAY MAX YR MIN YR
RDU RECORDS
06/19 102 1944 73 2010
06/20 102 1887 77 1924
06/21 101 1933 75 1933
GSO RECORDS
06/19 100 1944 77 1970
06/20 100 1924 75 2009
06/21 100 1933 75 1924
FAY RECORDS
06/19 102 1944 75 1948
06/20 102 1970 77 2009
06/21 105 1933 74 1999
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ042-043-077-078-085-086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...BLAES
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...BLAES
CLIMATE...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
350 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL WEAKEN THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL APPROACHES THE REGION FROM
THE WEST. THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN NEXT WEEK AS A
STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE
VIRGINIAS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM FRIDAY...
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH A VEIL OF HIGHS CLOUDS TO START THE DAY. MANY
OF THE SAME WEATHER FEATURES THAT HAVE BEEN AROUND FOR THE
PAST DAY OR TWO ARE STILL PRESENT TODAY. THE PERSISTENT
SOUTHEAST RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTH TODAY AND HEIGHTS FALL A BIT
RESULTING IN MAXES TODAY THAT ARE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER
THAN THURSDAY. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM 91 IN THE TRIAD TO 98
NEAR THE SC BORDER.
A HEAT ADVISORY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN...THE SANDHILLS AND THE SOUTHEAST
PIEDMONT. HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THESE AREAS WILL RANGE FROM 101
TO 105 AGAIN TODAY MAKING IT THE 3RD OR 4TH DAY THIS WEEK WITH
SUCH HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
FOCUS INITIALLY ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN PIEDMONT IN A
REGION OF WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MODEST BULK SHEAR
VALUES. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN IN A REGION OF MODERATE
TO EVEN STRONG INSTABILITY AND RAP PROGGED DCAPE VALUES
GREATER THAN 1300 J/KG. SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...THE MAIN SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL BE FROM LOW END ORGANIZED OR MULTICELL
STORMS PRODUCING DOWNBURST WINDS. -BLAES
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT FRIDAY...
CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE ONGOING TONIGHT AT THE START OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE CONVECTION WILL SHIFT EASTWARD WITH TIME
AND DEMONSTRATE A SLOW WEAKENING LATE IN THE EVENING AND DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE 60 TO 75 RANGE.
THE REMNANTS OF BILL WILL MOVE FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON SATURDAY. AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND THE WEAKENING RIDGE WILL RESULT IN MAX
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR OR JUST A NUDGE COOLER THAN FRIDAY.
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON... MOST FAVORED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT
IN PROXIMITY TO THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND DEEP MOISTURE.
-BLAES
&&
..LONG TERM/SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM FRIDAY...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT:
REMNANTS OF TC BILL...PROGGED TO BE INVOF THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEY
REGION SATURDAY MORNING WILL FINALLY GET PICKED BY THE MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES ON SATURDAY AND WILL GET SWEPT EASTWARD THROUGH THE
REGION...SHEARING ALONG THE WAY INTO A COMPACT OPEN TROUGH AS IT
CROSSES THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY.
NOT QUITE THE MOST FAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL STABILIZE OVERNIGHT...BUT THERE WILL BE COPIOUS CAPE ABOVE THE
INVERSION THAT WILL HELP CONVECTION TO SUSTAIN OVERNIGHT AS PWATS
INCREASE TO ~2.0". EXPECT POPS TO INCREASE LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FROM THE WEST AND SPREAD EAST
OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO LOW
LIKELY/HIGH CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER IN PROXIMITY TO THE
BETTER FORCING...TO SMALL CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH.
RAIN SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING THE COASTAL PLAIN BY MID
MORNING WITH FCST SOUNDINGS SHOWING PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE/WARMING
ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING TROUGH THAT WILL SUPPRESS
CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON .
WHILE ANY LINGERING MORNING CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUDINESS MAY RESULT IN A SLUGGISH WARM-UP...FULL SUN DURING THE
AFTERNOON WILL SEND TEMPERATURES SOARING TO WHAT WE HAVE COME
ACCUSTOM TO LATELY. HIGHS TO THE MID 90S NORTH AND UPPER 90S SOUTH.
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
ZONAL FLOW ON MONDAY WILL QUICKLY VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY AS AN UPPER
RIDGE AMPLIFIES IN THE MIDWEST AND MIGRATES EAST THROUGH THURSDAY.
NO RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IS IN SIGHT FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK WITH
PROJECTED LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES 1440-1450 METERS WHILE H8
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO HOVER BETWEEN 20 TO 22C...WHICH WILL
EASILY SUPPORT HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE MID 90S NW TO LOWER 100-102
ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. THESE HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL RESULT IN A A PROLONGED
4 TO 5 CONSECUTIVE DAY STRETCH OF HEAT INDICES OF 102 TO 105 RANGE
ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL
LIKELY WARRANT FUTURE HEAT ADVISORIES FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK.
STRONG ADIABATIC HEATING WILL SUPPORT SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
OF CONVECTION EACH DAY...WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES IN THE FAR WEST
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS WITH INLAND
PENETRATION OF SEABREEZE. DISTURBANCES IN THE AFOREMENTIONED NW FLOW
ALOFT COULD PROVIDE HIGHER/MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES...WILL WOULD
GREATLY OFFER SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT(FINGERS CROSSED)...HOWEVER
MODEL CONFIDENCE IN SUCH MESOSCALE FEATURES THIS FAR OUT IS TOO LOW
AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...
A LINGERING ARC OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL NC AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.
OUTSIDE OF THIS CONVECTION WITH ITS ASSOCIATED LOCAL VSBY AND CIG
RESTRICTIONS... MOST OF CENTRAL NC SHOULD EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FOG OR SHALLOW STRATUS IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE DAYBREAK AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS RELAX.
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH A
VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS. DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATE
MORNING WITH ANOTHER STORMY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING EXPECTED. THE
STORMS WILL INITIALLY BE MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE TRIAD AREA AND
TRANSITION EASTWARD AS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. THE CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY
DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATE IN THE EVENING ALTHOUGH SOME
PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY.
LOOKING BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY MAY
FEATURE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE BEFORE MORE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING STORMS ARRIVE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. -BLAES
&&
.CLIMATE...
REC
REC HI
DAY MAX YR MIN YR
RDU RECORDS
06/19 102 1944 73 2010
06/20 102 1887 77 1924
06/21 101 1933 75 1933
GSO RECORDS
06/19 100 1944 77 1970
06/20 100 1924 75 2009
06/21 100 1933 75 1924
FAY RECORDS
06/19 102 1944 75 1948
06/20 102 1970 77 2009
06/21 105 1933 74 1999
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ042-043-077-078-085-086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...BLAES
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...BLAES
CLIMATE...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
346 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL WEAKEN THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL APPROACHES THE REGION FROM
THE WEST. THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN NEXT WEEK AS A
STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE
VIRGINIAS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM FRIDAY...
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH A VEIL OF HIGHS CLOUDS TO START THE DAY. MANY
OF THE SAME WEATHER FEATURES THAT HAVE BEEN AROUND FOR THE
PAST DAY OR TWO ARE STILL PRESENT TODAY. THE PERSISTENT
SOUTHEAST RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTH TODAY AND HEIGHTS FALL A BIT
RESULTING IN MAXES TODAY THAT ARE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER
THAN THURSDAY. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM 91 IN THE TRIAD TO 98
NEAR THE SC BORDER.
A HEAT ADVISORY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN...THE SANDHILLS AND THE SOUTHEAST
PIEDMONT. HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THESE AREAS WILL RANGE FROM 101
TO 105 AGAIN TODAY MAKING IT THE 3RD OR 4TH DAY THIS WEEK WITH
SUCH HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
FOCUS INITIALLY ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN PIEDMONT IN A
REGION OF WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MODEST BULK SHEAR
VALUES. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN IN A REGION OF MODERATE
TO EVEN STRONG INSTABILITY AND RAP PROGGED DCAPE VALUES
GREATER THAN 1300 J/KG. SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...THE MAIN SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL BE FROM LOW END ORGANIZED OR MULTICELL
STORMS PRODUCING DOWNBURST WINDS. -BLAES
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT FRIDAY...
CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE ONGOING TONIGHT AT THE START OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE CONVECTION WILL SHIFT EASTWARD WITH TIME
AND DEMONSTRATE A SLOW WEAKENING LATE IN THE EVENING AND DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE 60 TO 75 RANGE.
THE REMNANTS OF BILL WILL MOVE FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON SATURDAY. AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND THE WEAKENING RIDGE WILL RESULT IN MAX
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR OR JUST A NUDGE COOLER THAN FRIDAY.
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON... MOST FAVORED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT
IN PROXIMITY TO THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND DEEP MOISTURE.
-BLAES
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...
REMNANTS OF TC BILL WILL BE PICKED UP IN THE WESTERLIES AND SWEPT
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC NORTH OF
THE AREA. THE SOUTHERN TAIL OF THE WEAKENING SHEAR AXIS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. NOT QUITE THE MOST FAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL STABILIZE OVERNIGHT...BUT THERE WILL BE COPIOUS
CAPE ABOVE THE INVERSION AND WOULD EXPECT A LINE OF CONVECTION TO
ACCOMPANY THE WAVE AND WILL INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER.
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE WAVE WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION ON SUNDAY. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 90S...AND WHILE THERE MAY BE
LINGERING CLOUDINESS TO DECREASE RADIATION EARLY SUNDAY...SUBSIDENCE
WILL ACT AS A COUNTERBALANCE AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RISE 10
METERS SUNDAY...INDICATIVE OF A 2-3 DEGREE RISE...SO WILL BUMP HIGHS
TO THE MID 90S NORTH AND UPPER 90S SOUTH.
INITIAL ZONAL FLOW MONDAY WILL TIP TO THE NORTHWEST AS AN UPPER
RIDGE AMPLIFIES IN THE MIDWEST AND MIGRATES EAST THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS WILL UNFORTUNATELY PROLONG THE HEAT WAVE AS LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES BETWEEN 1430-1440 METERS AND H85 TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO HOVER AROUND 22C...INDICATIVE OF HIGHS FROM 95 TO 100
EACH DAY. LOWS WILL BE PERSISTENCE...GENERALLY IN THE 72-76 RANGE.
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECASTING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE TRIGGERS
IN NORTHWEST FLOW AT THIS TIME RANGE...BUT EXPECT STRONG DIURNAL
HEATING TO FIRE CONVECTION IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED
AREAS...IN THE FAR WEST ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND ALONG
COASTAL SECTIONS WITH INLAND PENETRATION OF SEABREEZE.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...
A LINGERING ARC OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL NC AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.
OUTSIDE OF THIS CONVECTION WITH ITS ASSOCIATED LOCAL VSBY AND CIG
RESTRICTIONS... MOST OF CENTRAL NC SHOULD EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FOG OR SHALLOW STRATUS IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE DAYBREAK AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS RELAX.
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH A
VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS. DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATE
MORNING WITH ANOTHER STORMY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING EXPECTED. THE
STORMS WILL INITIALLY BE MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE TRIAD AREA AND
TRANSITION EASTWARD AS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. THE CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY
DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATE IN THE EVENING ALTHOUGH SOME
PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY.
LOOKING BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY MAY
FEATURE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE BEFORE MORE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING STORMS ARRIVE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. -BLAES
&&
.CLIMATE...
REC
REC HI
DAY MAX YR MIN YR
RDU RECORDS
06/19 102 1944 73 2010
06/20 102 1887 77 1924
06/21 101 1933 75 1933
GSO RECORDS
06/19 100 1944 77 1970
06/20 100 1924 75 2009
06/21 100 1933 75 1924
FAY RECORDS
06/19 102 1944 75 1948
06/20 102 1970 77 2009
06/21 105 1933 74 1999
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ042-043-077-078-085-086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...BLAES
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...BLAES
CLIMATE...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
154 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH HUMIDITY AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE HEAT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY
BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1100 PM THURSDAY...PATTERN REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FROM
THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH A LARGE RIDGE OVERHEAD THAT IS SOMEWHAT
TEMPERED BY A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
SEVERAL UPPER IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE PERIPHERY. AT THE
SURFACE...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE...BUT
ONCE AGAIN A THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT IS DRIVING
CONVECTION IN WHAT IS STILL A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE.
ALTHOUGH THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE IS QUITE WORKED OVER FROM EARLIER
STORMS...THE RESIDUAL LAYER IS MAINTAINING STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM
EXTREME SURFACE HEATING THIS AFTN...AND ONCE AGAIN SMALL
DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL TAP THIS AND DRIVE TSTMS OVERNIGHT. AS WINDS
HAVE VEERED AROUND TO THE SW ONCE AGAIN...IT APPEARS THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH IS REDEVELOPING EVEN AT THIS LATE HOUR...AND AN EXPANSIVE
AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS FIRED WEST OF THE CWA. MOST OF THIS
SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...BUT A FEW STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-95...WHERE CHC POP IS CARRIED FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED...AND THE NSSL WRF AND HRRR SHOW A MOSTLY DRY NIGHT LOCALLY.
TEMPS WILL AGAIN STAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL...AND MINS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
REACHED MOST PLACES WHERE RAIN-COOLED AIR DEVELOPED LATE IN THE EVE.
TEMPS WILL BE STEADY OR EVEN RISE A BIT OVERNIGHT...RANGING FROM
75-80.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE WELL
INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY AS SURFACE FEATURES...INCREASING MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY COME INTO PLAY. WITH MID TO UPPER RIDGE STILL IN
PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...JUST BARELY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE FORECAST
AREA ON FRIDAY WHILE THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL PUSH
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE SEABREEZE AND ANY LINGERING BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS DAYS
CONVECTION. INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON...A MORE EASTWARD TRACK OF
REMNANTS OF BILL...NOW A SHORTWAVE...BECOMES EVIDENT IN LATEST
GUIDANCE...WITH A TRACK ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER. AS THIS
OCCURS...WILL SEE THE UPPER RIDGE COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING
FOR THE PREDOMINANT FLOW TO CONTINUE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. WITH
THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE PUSHING INLAND...EXPECT MAJORITY OF THE
MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE CONVECTION TO REMAIN INLAND...THOUGH
CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE COAST. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACHING JUST OVER THE 2 INCH MARK EACH
DAY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD AMOUNT TO AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH GIVE OR TAKE...WHICH FALLS IN LINE WITH CURRENT WPC QPF
FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY 12Z.
A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...WHILE COULD SEE CONDITIONS MET AGAIN ON SATURDAY. THERE
WILL BE A BIT OF RELIEF IN ACTUAL TEMPERATURES THOUGH...TRENDING A
FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN HAVE SEEN IN PAST DAYS WITH LOW TO MID 90S
ALONG THE COAST AND MID 90S INLAND. THIS IS A RESULT OF THE AREA
LOOSING THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE...ALONG WITH ANTICIPATED
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN COOLED AIR FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...EXPECT MID 70S EACH NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...THE THEME FOR THE EXTENDED REMAINS THE
SAME...HOT AND MOSTLY DRY AS THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
WILL BE DOMINATED BY DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE. THE AXIS OF THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE WILL TAKE ON A SLIGHT NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TILT FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GULF COAST. WITH THIS
CONFIGURATION...THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS THE AREA COULD BE ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN OCCASIONAL MCS OR TWO BUT THESE ARE ALL
BUT IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HAVE MAINTAINED
THE MOSTLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH A SLIGHT NOD TO A DIURNAL
PATTERN. THE LATEST MEX NUMBERS HAVE COOLED SLIGHTLY SO THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE...NOT WANTING TO JUMP ON A COOLING TREND WITHOUT MORE
CONSISTENCY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...ATTM...RESIDUAL AND DYING TSRA AND SHRA CONTINUES TO
AFFECT SOUTHEAST NC AND NORTHEAST SC. A DISSIPATING TREND WILL
CONTINUE AND SHOULD SEE ALL TERMINALS IN THE CLEAR BY 08Z. THERE
IS A REMOTE CHANCE OF TEMPO MVFR VSBYS FROM BR AT KFLO/KLBT DURING
THESE PRE-DAWN HOURS IF SKIES CLEAR OUT AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT
ENOUGH. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AND WILL HOLD OFF FROM PLACING IT
IN THE TAFS. OVERALL...WINDS WILL RECOVER AND BECOME GENERALLY
FROM THE SSW-WSW DIRECTION LESS THAN 6 KTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE OVERNIGHT. AFTER DAYLIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME WSW AT 5 TO 10
KT ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. BY EARLY AFTN...THE COASTAL TERMS WILL
SEE WINDS BACK TO THE S-SSW 10-15 KT AS A RESULT OF THE SEA
BREEZE.
ONCE THE ATMOSPHERE DE-STABILIZES BY MIDDAY FRI AND WITH NUMEROUS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE FA FROM YESTERDAYS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY...SHRA/TSRA WILL LIKELY RE-FIRE BY EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON
FRI AND CONTINUE INTO FRI EVENING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH
MAINLY VFR. LESSER CHANCES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 PM THURSDAY...BERMUDA HIGH HAS RE-ESTABLISHED ITSELF
AFTER CONVECTION THIS EVENING CAUSED MESOSCALE CHANGES TO THE WINDS
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. AS THIS OCCURS...SW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TO 10-15 KTS...AND THEN PERSIST AT THESE SPEEDS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEAS WHICH LIKELY BECAME
CHOPPY WITH THE MYRIAD BOUNDARIES AND WIND SHIFTS EARLIER...WILL RE-
ATTAIN THE PREDOMINANT SW WIND CHOP...WITH SEAS 2-3 FT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...A SFC BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
THE DECLINING INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
SFC TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE AT TIMES. INTO SATURDAY MORNING...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH WINDS AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS.
EXPECT SEAS TO RANGE BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS BASICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT
SOME INCREASE BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS VIA A SLIGHTLY
ENHANCED NOCTURNAL JET BUT THIS SHOULD JUST ADD A KNOT OR TWO TO
THE WIND SPEEDS. SEAS ARE MOSTLY 2-4 FEET.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053-055.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NCZ087-096-099-105-107-109.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SGL
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SGL
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DCH/MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1254 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
THE FORECAST FOCUS WILL REMAIN ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.
THE LATEST STORM PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOK REMOVED
NORTH DAKOTA FROM THE MARGINAL CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE
IDAHO PANHANDLE MAY MANAGE TO SPARK A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AS
MIXED LAYER CAPES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1500 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON. STILL...IT APPEARS COVERAGE WILL BE LOW BASED ON 12 UTC
HIRES ARW AND NMM RUNS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 923 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED AS VISIBILITY HAS IMPROVED ACROSS
THE AREA. ALSO ADDED IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST
FOR THE MORNING AS REFLECTIVITY SHOWS STORMS THAT PRODUCED A
COUPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES IN MONTANA MOVING INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES. DO EXPECT THESE STORMS TO DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY THIS
MORNING AS THEY PROGRESS SOUTHEAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
DENSE FOG CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND AREA WXCAMS INDICATE DENSE FOG
HAS DRIFTED FARTHER SOUTH OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE
EXPANDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE BISMARCK
MANDAN METRO AREA. LOWERED POPS EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
MAIN ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE EARLY MORNING FOG AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
MOISTURE IS POOLING IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING MCS IN SOUTH
DAKOTA. WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS RIGHT AROUND ZERO AND LIGHT
WINDS...PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD FOG IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP NORTH AND SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR LIFT AND AFTERNOON HEATING WILL PROVIDE THE
INSTABILITY. FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL BE LESS THAN
TODAY...HOWEVER...WITH AROUND 40 KNOTS OF SHEAR AND 2000 J/KG CAPE
FORECAST BY THE WRF/NAM/RAP...SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. THE 00 UTC WRF
AND HRRR SHOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NORTH AND EAST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER BY AROUND 3PM THIS AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
A CONTINUATION OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MIGRATING THROUGH A
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PRODUCING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
REMAINS THE THEME.
SUNDAY WILL FEATURE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS NORTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTHERN CANADA ACCOMPANIED BY A 90KT JET STREAK...IN
ADDITION TO A 90 TO 100KT JET STREAK TRACKING FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
AND TIMING LOOKS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT THE
COMBINED FORCING OF THE TWO JET STREAKS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN MONTANA
AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND TRANSLATING
ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...SOME THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
POSSIBLY SOME LINGERING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE
EASTERN CWA MONDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
DRY. AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF WEEK WE SEE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
EVERY 24HR TO 36HR PROMOTING CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR/VFR AT ALL TAF SITES. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST...BUT TOO LOW CONFIDENCE TO ADD TO
TAFS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR FOG IS AT KMOT
AFTER 07 UTC TONIGHT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SCHECK
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...SCHECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1240 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THINNING
OF THE STRATUS DECK WEST OF THE RRV AND INTO WC MN. WITH THE
STRONG JUNE SUN...EVEN WITH SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS...TEMPS SHOULD
RESPOND QUICKLY...WITH THE COOLEST TEMPS FARTHER NORTH WHERE
CLOUDS ARE MORE PERSISTENT.
THE HRRR/HOPWRF CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER DEVILS LAKE BASIN BY MID-AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING
INTO THE EVENING EASTWARD. AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM IS
POSSIBLE...BUT WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE/MODEST INSTABILITY SHOULD
LIMIT THIS THREAT IN SPACE/TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 945 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
AN AREA OF SHOWERS FROM OTTER TAIL UP THROUGH BELTRAMI COUNTIES
CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD...BUT HAVE MAINTAINED HIGHER POPS FOR
ANOTHER HOUR. A FEW MORE SHOWERS ARE PUSHING INTO THE FAR NW PART
OF THE AREA...SO HAVE MADE SLIGHT POP ADJUSTMENTS.
OTHERWISE...THE QUESTIONS FOR TODAY WILL BE HOW QUICKLY CLEARING
OCCURS...AND SUBSEQUENT IMPACTS FOR TEMPS AND CONVECTIVE CHANCES.
FOR NOW...HAVE JUST SLIGHTLY LOWERED HIGHS OVER THE NE COUNTIES
WHERE CLOUDS LOOK TO HANG ON THE LONGEST...AND WILL MONITOR CLOUD
TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
SOME SPOTTY DIURNAL CONVECTION STILL IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE HRRR FOCUSING ACTIVITY FROM THE N RRV TOWARDS
DEVILS LAKE WHERE MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER. SFC
CONVERGENCE LOOKS WEAK...AND UPPER FORCING ALSO LOOKS FAIRLY
NONDESCRIPT...WITH ANY EMBEDDED IMPULSES QUITE WEAK. WHILE
DESTABILIZATION WILL DEPEND ON HOW CLOUD COVER EVOLVES...RAP
MUCAPE IS CURRENTLY ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 500-700 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON TOWARDS DEVILS LAKE...WITH DEEP SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KTS.
THUS...NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT STRONGER STORMS...BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR AS THE DAY WEARS ON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
WE WILL TWEAK POPS A BIT TO MATCH THE CURRENT TRENDS. THE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG CONTINUES TO EXPAND SOUTH AND WILL ADD SOME AREAS
OF FOG TO THE NORTH AND EXTEND UNTIL 15Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTIVE CHANCES. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE ORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.
FOR TODAY...SPC HAS ADDED A MARGINAL RISK FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS
WITH HAIL/WIND TO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. THERE WILL BE A FEW
SHORTWAVES IN ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...COMBINED WITH SFC CAPE
AROUND 1500 J/KG. THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION IN THE
EAST AND SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH MOST AREAS DRY TODAY. A
BAND OF LOWER CLOUDS IN THE NORTH COULD AFFECT TEMPS TODAY UNTIL
THEY BURN OFF LATER THIS MORNING.
FOR TONIGHT...THERE COULD BE A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A DRY NIGHT AND CAN/T RULE OUT SOME FOG WHERE
IT CLEARS WITH A WEAK SFC HIGH BUILDING IN.
ON SUNDAY...EXPECT A DRY DAY WITH WEAK RIDGING AND FAIRLY WARM
TEMPS AROUND 80 FOR MOST. THERE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING
THE FAR WEST LATE IN THE DAY...BUT ANY CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
FAR EAST CLOSER TO A DEPARTING COOL POOL ALOFT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A STRONG SHORTWAVE TO MOVE THROUGH FAST
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH SHOWALTERS FALLING TO AROUND -4C AND A
40KT LLJ INTO THE AREA. MODELS ALL AGREE THAT A FAIRLY ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IS LIKELY...WITH MOST AREAS GETTING MEASURABLE
RAIN AT LEAST. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MOST AREAS WITH A FEW
STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
ON MONDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION IN THE MORNING
WITH MOST AREAS DRY BY AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL COOL SOME FROM MONDAY
BEHIND A COOL FRONT.
TUESDAY TO FRIDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
WITH SHORT WAVES IN THE ZONAL TO WEAK NW FLOW INTERACTING WITH
INCREASING PWATS AS EVAPOTRANSPIRATION IS BEGINNING TO TAKE OFF
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. DRY FOR TUESDAY WITH 20 TO
30 POP EXPECTED TUES NIGHT NIGHT THRU THURSDAY AND THEN DRY FRIDAY.
AGAIN SCATTERED NATURE OF THE RAINFALL WITH NO WIDE SPREAD RAINS
EXPECTED. TEMPS TO BE NEAR NORMAL WITH UPPER 70S TO 80 FOR HIGHS AND
UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 FOR LOWS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP THIS AFTN AND THE TIMING OF THIS
IS THE CHALLENGE THRU 00Z. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP AND WITH
ENOUGH SUN A HIGHER BASED CU WILL FORM....BROKEN IN COVERAGE. SKIES
WILL SCATTER OUT TOWARD SUNSET WITH VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT/SUN MORNING
BUT NOT INCLUDED DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SPOT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MAKOWSKI
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...JK/DK
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
945 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
AN AREA OF SHOWERS FROM OTTER TAIL UP THROUGH BELTRAMI COUNTIES
CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD...BUT HAVE MAINTAINED HIGHER POPS FOR
ANOTHER HOUR. A FEW MORE SHOWERS ARE PUSHING INTO THE FAR NW PART
OF THE AREA...SO HAVE MADE SLIGHT POP ADJUSTMENTS.
OTHERWISE...THE QUESTIONS FOR TODAY WILL BE HOW QUICKLY CLEARING
OCCURS...AND SUBSEQUENT IMPACTS FOR TEMPS AND CONVECTIVE CHANCES.
FOR NOW...HAVE JUST SLIGHTLY LOWERED HIGHS OVER THE NE COUNTIES
WHERE CLOUDS LOOK TO HANG ON THE LONGEST...AND WILL MONITOR CLOUD
TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
SOME SPOTTY DIURNAL CONVECTION STILL IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE HRRR FOCUSING ACTIVITY FROM THE N RRV TOWARDS
DEVILS LAKE WHERE MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER. SFC
CONVERGENCE LOOKS WEAK...AND UPPER FORCING ALSO LOOKS FAIRLY
NONDESCRIPT...WITH ANY EMBEDDED IMPULSES QUITE WEAK. WHILE
DESTABILIZATION WILL DEPEND ON HOW CLOUD COVER EVOLVES...RAP
MUCAPE IS CURRENTLY ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 500-700 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON TOWARDS DEVILS LAKE...WITH DEEP SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KTS.
THUS...NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT STRONGER STORMS...BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR AS THE DAY WEARS ON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
WE WILL TWEAK POPS A BIT TO MATCH THE CURRENT TRENDS. THE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG CONTINUES TO EXPAND SOUTH AND WILL ADD SOME AREAS
OF FOG TO THE NORTH AND EXTEND UNTIL 15Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTIVE CHANCES. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE ORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.
FOR TODAY...SPC HAS ADDED A MARGINAL RISK FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS
WITH HAIL/WIND TO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. THERE WILL BE A FEW
SHORTWAVES IN ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...COMBINED WITH SFC CAPE
AROUND 1500 J/KG. THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION IN THE
EAST AND SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH MOST AREAS DRY TODAY. A
BAND OF LOWER CLOUDS IN THE NORTH COULD AFFECT TEMPS TODAY UNTIL
THEY BURN OFF LATER THIS MORNING.
FOR TONIGHT...THERE COULD BE A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A DRY NIGHT AND CAN/T RULE OUT SOME FOG WHERE
IT CLEARS WITH A WEAK SFC HIGH BUILDING IN.
ON SUNDAY...EXPECT A DRY DAY WITH WEAK RIDGING AND FAIRLY WARM
TEMPS AROUND 80 FOR MOST. THERE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING
THE FAR WEST LATE IN THE DAY...BUT ANY CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
FAR EAST CLOSER TO A DEPARTING COOL POOL ALOFT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A STRONG SHORTWAVE TO MOVE THROUGH FAST
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH SHOWALTERS FALLING TO AROUND -4C AND A
40KT LLJ INTO THE AREA. MODELS ALL AGREE THAT A FAIRLY ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IS LIKELY...WITH MOST AREAS GETTING MEASURABLE
RAIN AT LEAST. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MOST AREAS WITH A FEW
STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
ON MONDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION IN THE MORNING
WITH MOST AREAS DRY BY AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL COOL SOME FROM MONDAY
BEHIND A COOL FRONT.
TUESDAY TO FRIDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
WITH SHORT WAVES IN THE ZONAL TO WEAK NW FLOW INTERACTING WITH
INCREASING PWATS AS EVAPOTRANSPIRATION IS BEGINNING TO TAKE OFF
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. DRY FOR TUESDAY WITH 20 TO
30 POP EXPECTED TUES NIGHT NIGHT THRU THURSDAY AND THEN DRY FRIDAY.
AGAIN SCATTERED NATURE OF THE RAINFALL WITH NO WIDE SPREAD RAINS
EXPECTED. TEMPS TO BE NEAR NORMAL WITH UPPER 70S TO 80 FOR HIGHS AND
UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 FOR LOWS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF IFR CIGS AND SOME FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE
RED RIVER VALLEY INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. THE LATEST HRRR IS
SLOW TO ERODE THIS FEATURE...AND THEY SHOULD LINGER UNTIL AT LEAST
18-20Z TIMEFRAME.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MAKOWSKI
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...JK/DK
AVIATION...DK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
932 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 923 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED AS VISIBILITY HAS IMPROVED ACROSS
THE AREA. ALSO ADDED IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST
FOR THE MORNING AS REFLECTIVITY SHOWS STORMS THAT PRODUCED A
COUPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES IN MONTANA MOVING INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES. DO EXPECT THESE STORMS TO DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY THIS
MORNING AS THEY PROGRESS SOUTHEAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
DENSE FOG CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND AREA WXCAMS INDICATE DENSE FOG
HAS DRIFTED FARTHER SOUTH OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE
EXPANDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE BISMARCK
MANDAN METRO AREA. LOWERED POPS EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
MAIN ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE EARLY MORNING FOG AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
MOISTURE IS POOLING IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING MCS IN SOUTH
DAKOTA. WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS RIGHT AROUND ZERO AND LIGHT
WINDS...PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD FOG IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP NORTH AND SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR LIFT AND AFTERNOON HEATING WILL PROVIDE THE
INSTABILITY. FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL BE LESS THAN
TODAY...HOWEVER...WITH AROUND 40 KNOTS OF SHEAR AND 2000 J/KG CAPE
FORECAST BY THE WRF/NAM/RAP...SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. THE OO UTC WRF
AND HRRR SHOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NORTH AND EAST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER BY AROUND 3PM THIS AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
A CONTINUATION OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MIGRATING THROUGH A
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PRODUCING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
REMAINS THE THEME.
SUNDAY WILL FEATURE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS NORTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTHERN CANADA ACCOMPANIED BY A 90KT JETSTREAK...IN
ADDITION TO A 90 TO 100KT JETSTREAK TRACKING FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
AND TIMING LOOKS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT THE
COMBINED FORCING OF THE TWO JET STREAKS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN MONTANA
AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND TRANSLATING
ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...SOME THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
POSSIBLY SOME LINGERING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE
EASTERN CWA MONDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
DRY. AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF WEEK WE SEE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
EVERY 24HR TO 36HR PROMOTING CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG WILL CONTINUE AT KMOT THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...AND HAD EXPANDED SOUTH TO INCLUDE KBIS AT 12 UTC.
OTHERWISE...OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT KJMS
AND KISN...WITH VFR EXPECTED AT KDIK. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
ACROSS ALL TAF SITES BY LATE MORNING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MM
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
637 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
DENSE FOG CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND AREA WXCAMS INDICATE DENSE FOG
HAS DRIFTED FARTHER SOUTH OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE
EXPANDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE BISMARCK
MANDAN METRO AREA. LOWERED POPS EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
MAIN ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE EARLY MORNING FOG AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
MOISTURE IS POOLING IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING MCS IN SOUTH
DAKOTA. WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS RIGHT AROUND ZERO AND LIGHT
WINDS...PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD FOG IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP NORTH AND SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR LIFT AND AFTERNOON HEATING WILL PROVIDE THE
INSTABILITY. FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL BE LESS THAN
TODAY...HOWEVER...WITH AROUND 40 KNOTS OF SHEAR AND 2000 J/KG CAPE
FORECAST BY THE WRF/NAM/RAP...SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. THE OO UTC WRF
AND HRRR SHOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NORTH AND EAST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER BY AROUND 3PM THIS AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
A CONTINUATION OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MIGRATING THROUGH A
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PRODUCING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
REMAINS THE THEME.
SUNDAY WILL FEATURE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS NORTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTHERN CANADA ACCOMPANIED BY A 90KT JETSTREAK...IN
ADDITION TO A 90 TO 100KT JETSTREAK TRACKING FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
AND TIMING LOOKS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT THE
COMBINED FORCING OF THE TWO JET STREAKS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN MONTANA
AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND TRANSLATING
ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...SOME THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
POSSIBLY SOME LINGERING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE
EASTERN CWA MONDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
DRY. AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF WEEK WE SEE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
EVERY 24HR TO 36HR PROMOTING CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG WILL CONTINUE AT KMOT THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...AND HAD EXPANDED SOUTH TO INCLUDE KBIS AT 12 UTC.
OTHERWISE...OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT KJMS
AND KISN...WITH VFR EXPECTED AT KDIK. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
ACROSS ALL TAF SITES BY LATE MORNING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013-019>023-034-035.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
559 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
WE WILL TWEAK POPS A BIT TO MATCH THE CURRENT TRENDS. THE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG CONTINUES TO EXPAND SOUTH AND WILL ADD SOME AREAS
OF FOG TO THE NORTH AND EXTEND UNTIL 15Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTIVE CHANCES. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE ORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.
FOR TODAY...SPC HAS ADDED A MARGINAL RISK FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS
WITH HAIL/WIND TO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. THERE WILL BE A FEW
SHORTWAVES IN ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...COMBINED WITH SFC CAPE
AROUND 1500 J/KG. THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION IN THE
EAST AND SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH MOST AREAS DRY TODAY. A
BAND OF LOWER CLOUDS IN THE NORTH COULD AFFECT TEMPS TODAY UNTIL
THEY BURN OFF LATER THIS MORNING.
FOR TONIGHT...THERE COULD BE A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A DRY NIGHT AND CAN/T RULE OUT SOME FOG WHERE
IT CLEARS WITH A WEAK SFC HIGH BUILDING IN.
ON SUNDAY...EXPECT A DRY DAY WITH WEAK RIDGING AND FAIRLY WARM
TEMPS AROUND 80 FOR MOST. THERE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING
THE FAR WEST LATE IN THE DAY...BUT ANY CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
FAR EAST CLOSER TO A DEPARTING COOL POOL ALOFT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A STRONG SHORTWAVE TO MOVE THROUGH FAST
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH SHOWALTERS FALLING TO AROUND -4C AND A
40KT LLJ INTO THE AREA. MODELS ALL AGREE THAT A FAIRLY ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IS LIKELY...WITH MOST AREAS GETTING MEASURABLE
RAIN AT LEAST. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MOST AREAS WITH A FEW
STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
ON MONDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION IN THE MORNING
WITH MOST AREAS DRY BY AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL COOL SOME FROM MONDAY
BEHIND A COOL FRONT.
TUESDAY TO FRIDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
WITH SHORT WAVES IN THE ZONAL TO WEAK NW FLOW INTERACTING WITH
INCREASING PWATS AS EVAPOTRANSPIRATION IS BEGINNING TO TAKE OFF
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. DRY FOR TUESDAY WITH 20 TO
30 POP EXPECTED TUES NIGHT NIGHT THRU THURSDAY AND THEN DRY FRIDAY.
AGAIN SCATTERED NATURE OF THE RAINFALL WITH NO WIDE SPREAD RAINS
EXPECTED. TEMPS TO BE NEAR NORMAL WITH UPPER 70S TO 80 FOR HIGHS AND
UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 FOR LOWS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF IFR CIGS AND SOME FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE
RED RIVER VALLEY INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. THE LATEST HRRR IS
SLOW TO ERODE THIS FEATURE...AND THEY SHOULD LINGER UNTIL AT LEAST
18-20Z TIMEFRAME.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...JK/DK
AVIATION...DK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
313 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
MAIN ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE EARLY MORNING FOG AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
MOISTURE IS POOLING IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING MCS IN SOUTH
DAKOTA. WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS RIGHT AROUND ZERO AND LIGHT
WINDS...PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD FOG IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP NORTH AND SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR LIFT AND AFTERNOON HEATING WILL PROVIDE THE
INSTABILITY. FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL BE LESS THAN
TODAY...HOWEVER...WITH AROUND 40 KNOTS OF SHEAR AND 2000 J/KG CAPE
FORECAST BY THE WRF/NAM/RAP...SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. THE OO UTC WRF
AND HRRR SHOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NORTH AND EAST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER BY AROUND 3PM THIS AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
A CONTINUATION OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MIGRATING THROUGH A
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PRODUCING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
REMAINS THE THEME.
SUNDAY WILL FEATURE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS NORTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTHERN CANADA ACCOMPANIED BY A 90KT JETSTREAK...IN
ADDITION TO A 90 TO 100KT JETSTREAK TRACKING FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
AND TIMING LOOKS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT THE
COMBINED FORCING OF THE TWO JET STREAKS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN MONTANA
AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND TRANSLATING
ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...SOME THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
POSSIBLY SOME LINGERING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE
EASTERN CWA MONDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
DRY. AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF WEEK WE SEE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
EVERY 24HR TO 36HR PROMOTING CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF KJMS SHORTLY AFTER THE 06Z
ISSUANCE. KBIS WILL BRIEFLY SEE SHOWERS AND VCTS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE VFR...WITH SOME POSSIBLE MVFR
CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT. CIGS WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING
SATURDAY TO VFR EVERYWHERE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1150 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
STORMS MOVING INTO EASTERN ND HAVE LOST THE BOWING AND HIGH WINDS
THEY HAD EARLIER...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH CONVECTION POPPING UP
AHEAD OF THE MCS FOR ANY PULSING UP TO PRODUCE SOME HAIL OR WIND
GUSTS. OVERALL THERE SEEMS TO BE A WEAKENING TREND AS STORMS
BECOME ELEVATED. RAP HAS BEEN DOING POORLY WITH PRECIP SO LEANED
MORE TOWARDS THE NAM FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE NUMEROUS MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT
THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT CHANCE FOR PRECIP FURTHER NORTH ALSO. THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OVER WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MN TOWARDS
MORNING...AND SOME PRECIP MAY BE LINGERING IN THE FAR EASTERN TIER
AFTER 12Z.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 951 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
STORMS OVER THE WESTERN PART OF ND HAVE EVOLVED INTO A MCS
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF BIS CWA. SUBSIDENCE
HAS KEPT CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY
SUPPRESSED...BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD BE INCREASING AS THE MCS MOVES
INTO EASTERN ND. THERE IS STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW IT INTERACTS WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA. THINK THAT THE
BEST SEVERE CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA WHICH FITS THE
TRACK OF THE BOW...SO KEPT SEVERE T MENTION THERE BUT AT THIS
POINT IT SEEMS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN WILL NOT GET MUCH WIND OR
HAIL SO REMOVED SEVERE WORDING THERE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
SOME CU AND SHOWERS HAVE TRIED TO GO UP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED FROM COOPERSTOWN TO GRAFTON TO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA.
OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES THERE HAS BEEN SOME ONGOING
ACTIVITY ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...BUT FURTHER WEST CELLS
HAVE STRUGGLED UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE MUCH UNTIL THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE COMES OUT OF MONTANA LATER TONIGHT. HAVE SOME POPS
COMING INTO OUR WEST AROUND 03Z...ALONG WITH ONGOING POPS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER. CONVECTION SHOULD PICK UP LATER TONIGHT AS WE
GET THE SHORTWAVE COMING OUT. KEPT HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTH FOR
NOW BUT WILL ADJUST AS NEEDED DEPENDING ON HOW THE STORMS JUST
MOVING INTO WESTERN ND BEHAVE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
LATEST GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS AGREE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING. SFC
BOUNDARY WITH MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG HAS SET UP FROM SW ND INTO
THE GRAND FORKS AREA. THIS REGION IS CURRENTLY ON THE SUBSIDENCE
SIDE OF A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE...WHICH WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS
CONVECTION FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. STRONGER SYNOPTIC FORCING
ARRIVES THIS EVENING...SPREADING ACTIVITY INTO THE REGION. LATEST
CAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTH DAKOTA (STRONGEST FORCING ON NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET...INSTABILITY..ETC). HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SEVERE THREAT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA DURING
THE 03Z-09Z PERIOD WITH FORCING FROM A MORE NORTHERN UPPER WAVE
OVERRIDING THE REGION. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS FORCING WILL
INTERACT WITH MUCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG AND 35-45 KNOTS DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. HRRR SUGGESTS A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THIS ENVIRONMENT (MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE
WIND GUSTS THE LIKELY THREATS...TORNADO THREAT APPEARS LOW GIVEN
WEAK 0-3KM BULK SHEAR DURING THIS TIMEFRAME). SEVERE THREAT WOULD
APPEAR TO QUICKLY DROP TOWARD THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS THE
SOUTHERN ACTIVITY DOMINATES THE SCENE.
WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL
IF A WEST TO EAST BOUNDARY (AND TRAINING STORMS) SETS UP NEAR THE
SOUTHERN FA. THIS IS A POSSIBILITY...BUT A LOW PROBABILITY GIVEN
THE STRONGER SYSTEM EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
SATURDAY-MONDAY...ACTIVE ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES WITH THUNDER CHANCES
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ON
SATURDAY THERE WILL BE A WEAK LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY AND A MARGINAL
CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING PEAK HEATING (GIVEN WEAK
INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR). ON SUNDAY...SEVERE
CHANCES APPEAR BETTER GIVEN A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WAVE...ALTHOUGH
MUCH WILL DEPEND ON TIMING OF THIS FEATURE. HIGH PRESSURE ON
MONDAY SHOULD LEAD TO DRY WEATHER.
MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN
THE EXTENDED AS LATE WEEKEND WAVE HAS PUSHED WELL EAST OF FORECAST
AREA AND IS REPLACED BY ZONAL FLOW TO START EXTENDED PERIOD.
SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THIS REGIME WILL CREATE THUNDER
CHANCES...WITH PLENTY OF DRY INTERVALS MIXED IN. IN TERMS OF A
PROBABILITY FORECAST WE ARE KIND OF LEFT WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
ESSENTIALLY THE ENTIRE TIME THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER THE BEST
SIGNAL FOR PCPN CHANCES COMES DURING THE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BLOCK OF TIME.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE OFFING FOR NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S WHILE LOWS DROP TO BETWEEN 55 AND 60.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
CONVECTION HAS MOVED INTO THE FORECAST AREA...WITH VCTS AT KGFK
KFAR AND KTVF AT THE START OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. STORMS WILL MOVE
INTO THE KBJI AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE PRECIP WILL CLEAR OUT
DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT SOME MVFR CIGS AND EVEN SOME LIGHT
BR WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND IT TOWARDS DAYBREAK. THINK THE
1500-3000 FT CIGS WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING...THEN CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR BY AFTERNOON. LIGHT
NORTH WINDS ACROSS ALL BUT KFAR WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
AREA. WINDS WILL SHIFT AT KFAR LATER THIS MORNING AND ALL SITES
WILL SEE NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS BELOW 12 KTS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
951 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 951 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
STORMS OVER THE WESTERN PART OF ND HAVE EVOLVED INTO A MCS
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF BIS CWA. SUBSIDENCE
HAS KEPT CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY
SUPPRESSED...BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD BE INCREASING AS THE MCS MOVES
INTO EASTERN ND. THERE IS STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW IT INTERACTS WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA. THINK THAT THE
BEST SEVERE CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA WHICH FITS THE
TRACK OF THE BOW...SO KEPT SEVERE T MENTION THERE BUT AT THIS
POINT IT SEEMS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN WILL NOT GET MUCH WIND OR
HAIL SO REMOVED SEVERE WORDING THERE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
SOME CU AND SHOWERS HAVE TRIED TO GO UP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED FROM COOPERSTOWN TO GRAFTON TO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA.
OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES THERE HAS BEEN SOME ONGOING
ACTIVITY ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...BUT FURTHER WEST CELLS
HAVE STRUGGLED UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE MUCH UNTIL THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE COMES OUT OF MONTANA LATER TONIGHT. HAVE SOME POPS
COMING INTO OUR WEST AROUND 03Z...ALONG WITH ONGOING POPS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER. CONVECTION SHOULD PICK UP LATER TONIGHT AS WE
GET THE SHORTWAVE COMING OUT. KEPT HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTH FOR
NOW BUT WILL ADJUST AS NEEDED DEPENDING ON HOW THE STORMS JUST
MOVING INTO WESTERN ND BEHAVE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
LATEST GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS AGREE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING. SFC
BOUNDARY WITH MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG HAS SET UP FROM SW ND INTO
THE GRAND FORKS AREA. THIS REGION IS CURRENTLY ON THE SUBSIDENCE
SIDE OF A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE...WHICH WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS
CONVECTION FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. STRONGER SYNOPTIC FORCING
ARRIVES THIS EVENING...SPREADING ACTIVITY INTO THE REGION. LATEST
CAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTH DAKOTA (STRONGEST FORCING ON NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET...INSTABILITY..ETC). HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SEVERE THREAT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA DURING
THE 03Z-09Z PERIOD WITH FORCING FROM A MORE NORTHERN UPPER WAVE
OVERRIDING THE REGION. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS FORCING WILL
INTERACT WITH MUCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG AND 35-45 KNOTS DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. HRRR SUGGESTS A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THIS ENVIRONMENT (MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE
WIND GUSTS THE LIKELY THREATS...TORNADO THREAT APPEARS LOW GIVEN
WEAK 0-3KM BULK SHEAR DURING THIS TIMEFRAME). SEVERE THREAT WOULD
APPEAR TO QUICKLY DROP TOWARD THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS THE
SOUTHERN ACTIVITY DOMINATES THE SCENE.
WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL
IF A WEST TO EAST BOUNDARY (AND TRAINING STORMS) SETS UP NEAR THE
SOUTHERN FA. THIS IS A POSSIBILITY...BUT A LOW PROBABILITY GIVEN
THE STRONGER SYSTEM EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
SATURDAY-MONDAY...ACTIVE ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES WITH THUNDER CHANCES
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ON
SATURDAY THERE WILL BE A WEAK LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY AND A MARGINAL
CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING PEAK HEATING (GIVEN WEAK
INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR). ON SUNDAY...SEVERE
CHANCES APPEAR BETTER GIVEN A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WAVE...ALTHOUGH
MUCH WILL DEPEND ON TIMING OF THIS FEATURE. HIGH PRESSURE ON
MONDAY SHOULD LEAD TO DRY WEATHER.
MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN
THE EXTENDED AS LATE WEEKEND WAVE HAS PUSHED WELL EAST OF FORECAST
AREA AND IS REPLACED BY ZONAL FLOW TO START EXTENDED PERIOD.
SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THIS REGIME WILL CREATE THUNDER
CHANCES...WITH PLENTY OF DRY INTERVALS MIXED IN. IN TERMS OF A
PROBABILITY FORECAST WE ARE KIND OF LEFT WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
ESSENTIALLY THE ENTIRE TIME THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER THE BEST
SIGNAL FOR PCPN CHANCES COMES DURING THE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BLOCK OF TIME.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE OFFING FOR NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S WHILE LOWS DROP TO BETWEEN 55 AND 60.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS CU STRUGGLES TO GET GOING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THINK THAT THE TAF SITES WILL NOT
SEE MUCH CONVECTION UNTIL LATER TONIGHT...SO MOVED THE VCTS
MENTION UNTIL 03Z FOR KDVL AND EVEN LATER FOR THE EASTERN SITES.
SHOULD BE A TRANSITION TO MORE SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...WITH SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING. SOME 3-5SM BR IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION BUT WILL KEEP VIS ABOVE 6SM FOR NOW. THE MVFR CIGS
WILL CONTINUE FOR A TIME SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR
BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE TRICKY WITH A COLD FRONT STALLED
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. KDVL HAS ALREADY SHIFTED TO THE
NORTH AND THE OTHER TAF SITES SHOULD SEE A WIND SHIFT LATER
TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY FINALLY BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
652 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
SOME CU AND SHOWERS HAVE TRIED TO GO UP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPPED FROM COOPERSTOWN TO GRAFTON TO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA.
OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES THERE HAS BEEN SOME ONGOING
ACTIVITY ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...BUT FURTHER WEST CELLS
HAVE STRUGGLED UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE MUCH UNTIL THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE COMES OUT OF MONTANA LATER TONIGHT. HAVE SOME POPS
COMING INTO OUR WEST AROUND 03Z...ALONG WITH ONGOING POPS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER. CONVECTION SHOULD PICK UP LATER TONIGHT AS
WE GET THE SHORTWAVE COMING OUT. KEPT HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTH
FOR NOW BUT WILL ADJUST AS NEEDED DEPENDING ON HOW THE STORMS JUST
MOVING INTO WESTERN ND BEHAVE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
LATEST GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS AGREE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING. SFC
BOUNDARY WITH MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG HAS SET UP FROM SW ND INTO
THE GRAND FORKS AREA. THIS REGION IS CURRENTLY ON THE SUBSIDENCE
SIDE OF A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE...WHICH WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS
CONVECTION FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. STRONGER SYNOPTIC FORCING
ARRIVES THIS EVENING...SPREADING ACTIVITY INTO THE REGION. LATEST
CAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTH DAKOTA (STRONGEST FORCING ON NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET...INSTABILITY..ETC). HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SEVERE THREAT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA DURING
THE 03Z-09Z PERIOD WITH FORCING FROM A MORE NORTHERN UPPER WAVE
OVERRIDING THE REGION. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS FORCING WILL
INTERACT WITH MUCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG AND 35-45 KNOTS DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. HRRR SUGGESTS A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THIS ENVIRONMENT (MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE
WIND GUSTS THE LIKELY THREATS...TORNADO THREAT APPEARS LOW GIVEN
WEAK 0-3KM BULK SHEAR DURING THIS TIMEFRAME). SEVERE THREAT WOULD
APPEAR TO QUICKLY DROP TOWARD THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS THE
SOUTHERN ACTIVITY DOMINATES THE SCENE.
WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL
IF A WEST TO EAST BOUNDARY (AND TRAINING STORMS) SETS UP NEAR THE
SOUTHERN FA. THIS IS A POSSIBILITY...BUT A LOW PROBABILITY GIVEN
THE STRONGER SYSTEM EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
SATURDAY-MONDAY...ACTIVE ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES WITH THUNDER CHANCES
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ON
SATURDAY THERE WILL BE A WEAK LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY AND A MARGINAL
CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING PEAK HEATING (GIVEN WEAK
INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR). ON SUNDAY...SEVERE
CHANCES APPEAR BETTER GIVEN A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WAVE...ALTHOUGH
MUCH WILL DEPEND ON TIMING OF THIS FEATURE. HIGH PRESSURE ON
MONDAY SHOULD LEAD TO DRY WEATHER.
MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN
THE EXTENDED AS LATE WEEKEND WAVE HAS PUSHED WELL EAST OF FORECAST
AREA AND IS REPLACED BY ZONAL FLOW TO START EXTENDED PERIOD.
SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THIS REGIME WILL CREATE THUNDER
CHANCES...WITH PLENTY OF DRY INTERVALS MIXED IN. IN TERMS OF A
PROBABILITY FORECAST WE ARE KIND OF LEFT WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
ESSENTIALLY THE ENTIRE TIME THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER THE BEST
SIGNAL FOR PCPN CHANCES COMES DURING THE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BLOCK OF TIME.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE OFFING FOR NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S WHILE LOWS DROP TO BETWEEN 55 AND 60.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS CU STRUGGLES TO GET GOING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THINK THAT THE TAF SITES WILL NOT
SEE MUCH CONVECTION UNTIL LATER TONIGHT...SO MOVED THE VCTS
MENTION UNTIL 03Z FOR KDVL AND EVEN LATER FOR THE EASTERN SITES.
SHOULD BE A TRANSITION TO MORE SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...WITH SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING. SOME 3-5SM BR IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION BUT WILL KEEP VIS ABOVE 6SM FOR NOW. THE MVFR CIGS
WILL CONTINUE FOR A TIME SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR
BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE TRICKY WITH A COLD FRONT STALLED
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. KDVL HAS ALREADY SHIFTED TO THE
NORTH AND THE OTHER TAF SITES SHOULD SEE A WIND SHIFT LATER
TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY FINALLY BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
315 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
LATEST GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS AGREE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING. SFC
BOUNDARY WITH MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG HAS SET UP FROM SW ND INTO
THE GRAND FORKS AREA. THIS REGION IS CURRENTLY ON THE SUBSIDENCE
SIDE OF A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE...WHICH WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS
CONVECTION FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. STRONGER SYNOPTIC FORCING
ARRIVES THIS EVENING...SPREADING ACTIVITY INTO THE REGION. LATEST
CAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTH DAKOTA (STRONGEST FORCING ON NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET...INSTABILITY..ETC). HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SEVERE THREAT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA DURING
THE 03Z-09Z PERIOD WITH FORCING FROM A MORE NORTHERN UPPER WAVE
OVERRIDING THE REGION. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS FORCING WILL
INTERACT WITH MUCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG AND 35-45 KNOTS DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. HRRR SUGGESTS A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THIS ENVIRONMENT (MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE
WIND GUSTS THE LIKELY THREATS...TORNADO THREAT APPEARS LOW GIVEN
WEAK 0-3KM BULK SHEAR DURING THIS TIMEFRAME). SEVERE THREAT WOULD
APPEAR TO QUICKLY DROP TOWARD THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS THE
SOUTHERN ACTIVITY DOMINATES THE SCENE.
WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL
IF A WEST TO EAST BOUNDARY (AND TRAINING STORMS) SETS UP NEAR THE
SOUTHERN FA. THIS IS A POSSIBILITY...BUT A LOW PROBABILITY GIVEN
THE STRONGER SYSTEM EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
SATURDAY-MONDAY...ACTIVE ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES WITH THUNDER CHANCES
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ON
SATURDAY THERE WILL BE A WEAK LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY AND A MARGINAL
CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING PEAK HEATING (GIVEN WEAK
INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR). ON SUNDAY...SEVERE
CHANCES APPEAR BETTER GIVEN A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WAVE...ALTHOUGH
MUCH WILL DEPEND ON TIMING OF THIS FEATURE. HIGH PRESSURE ON
MONDAY SHOULD LEAD TO DRY WEATHER.
MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN
THE EXTENDED AS LATE WEEKEND WAVE HAS PUSHED WELL EAST OF FORECAST
AREA AND IS REPLACED BY ZONAL FLOW TO START EXTENDED PERIOD.
SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THIS REGIME WILL CREATE THUNDER
CHANCES...WITH PLENTY OF DRY INTERVALS MIXED IN. IN TERMS OF A
PROBABILITY FORECAST WE ARE KIND OF LEFT WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
ESSENTIALLY THE ENTIRE TIME THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER THE BEST
SIGNAL FOR PCPN CHANCES COMES DURING THE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BLOCK OF TIME.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE OFFING FOR NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S WHILE LOWS DROP TO BETWEEN 55 AND 60.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE RETURN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THIS DEPENDS LARGELY ON
ORIENTATION AND MOVEMENT OF SFC BOUNDARY. INTRODUCED -TSRA TO ALL
SITES AT OR AFTER 00Z TRENDING TO SHRA OVERNIGHT. MVFR CONDS TO
ACCOMPANY TSRA AND LINGER INTO SAT MORNING. SOUTH WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO NORTH WHEN BOUNDARY SINKS TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING OR
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...WJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
105 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND WITH THE IDEA THAT THE SEVERE
THREAT ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE MORE TOWARD 03Z...AND
CLOSER TO 05Z/06Z INTO THE VALLEY. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS STABLE
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AT 18Z...AND WILL LIKELY NOT BE
UNSTABLE ENOUGH (CAPPING ISSUES) FOR STORMS TO FORM ALONG THE SFC
BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON...WAITING FOR THE STRONGER SYNOPTIC
FORCING TO OVERRIDE THE REGION CLOSER TO 03Z. LATEST CAM GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA
(STRONGEST FORCING ON NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...INSTABILITY..ETC).
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SEVERE THREAT ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA DURING THE 03Z-09Z PERIOD WITH
FORCING FROM A MORE NORTHERN UPPER WAVE OVERRIDING THE REGION.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS FORCING WILL INTERACT WITH MUCAPE 1000-1500
J/KG AND 35-45 KNOTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR. HRRR SUGGESTS A FEW
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS ENVIRONMENT (MARGINALLY
LARGE HAIL WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS THE LIKELY
THREATS...TORNADO THREAT APPEARS LOW GIVEN WEAK 0-3KM BULK SHEAR
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME). ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO THE ABOVE
THINKING. SEVERE THREAT WOULD APPEAR TO QUICKLY DROP TOWARD THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS THE SOUTHERN ACTIVITY DOMINATES THE SCENE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1001 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
UPPER WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA INDUCING 850MB LOW LEVEL JET AND ENHANCED REGION OF 850MB
WARM AIR ADVECTION...WITH ASSOCIATED RADAR RETURNS ACROSS NE ND
AND NW MN. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. INCREASED POPS
FOR THIS AREA OF SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER ACTIVITY (FOLLOWING THE
LATEST HRRR FOR TIMING). LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS DECREASING...A
SIGN THAT THIS FORCING IS OUTRUNNING INSTABILITY.
THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...IN AN
AREA OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...EVIDENT FROM SATELLITE
IMAGERY.
MAJOR QUESTIONS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL
BE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT...AND THEN HOW
FAR NORTH WILL THE MCS THAT DEVELOPMENTS ACROSS THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS TRACK OVERNIGHT. LATEST SYNOPTIC MODELS AND CAM GUIDANCE
TRENDING TOWARD MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY (DUE TO
CAPPING ISSUES). THIS SFC BOUNDARY (WARM FRONT) WILL BE POSITIONED
FROM SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. SYNOPTIC
FORCING (FROM A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WAVE) WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL
CLOSER TO 03Z. THUS...LIKE THE IDEA OF POSSIBLY ISOLD STORMS
CLOSER TO 00Z ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY (AND POSSIBLY NO STORMS).
ADJUSTED POPS AND DELAYED T+ MENTION UNTIL 00Z. AS THE SYNOPTIC
FORCING OVERRIDES THE REGION...THINKING THAT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
WILL INCREASE...INCREASING SEVERE POTENTIAL. THERE WILL ALSO BE
THE MCS THAT INITIATES ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...AND NOT SURE
THE AFFECT THIS WILL HAVE ON ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH...OR WHERE THIS
SYSTEM WILL TRACK (MAY AFFECT THE SOUTHERN FA). WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AND HOPEFULLY HAVE MORE DETAILS WITH THE 1PM UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
A BAND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION IS FORMING IN CENTRAL INTO NE ND
EARLY THIS MORNING THE HRRR AND OTHER CAM MODELS HAVE THIS WELL IN
HAND...AND EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO MOVE/DEVELOP INTO
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN VALLEY THROUGH THIS
MORNING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE
FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE EXACT DETAILS ARE ALWAYS
CHALLENGING WITH CONVECTION...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...EXPECT A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION THROUGH THE MORNING IN THE NORTH. THERE WILL BE
INCREASING INSTABILITY THROUGH THE DAY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
VALLEY. MODELS HINT AT SOME RE-DEVELOPMENT IN THE NORTH AND
WESTERN FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SFC CAPE AROUND 2000
J/KG. IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...ALTHOUGH ANY AREAS
THAT HEAT OUT TODAY WITH TDS INCREASING WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.
DEEP LAYERED SHEAR THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE STRONG...AROUND
50KT...SO ANY STORMS THAT FORM IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA COULD BE
SUPERCELLULAR INITIALLY. THERE SHOULD BE A LARGER SEVERE TYPE MCS
MOVING FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS INTO THE SOUTHERN VALLEY...OR VERY
CLOSE...LATER TONIGHT FROM 6Z-12Z. THIS WILL BE FED BY A STRONG
LLJ AROUND 50KT AND PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES ON THE GFS AND NAM.
WILL MENTION SEVERE IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA 18Z-06Z...THEN IN THE
SOUTHERN FA 6Z-12Z WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE HERE ALSO.
FOR SATURDAY...THERE WILL BE INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ACTIVE W/NW FLOW ALOFT. THE OVERALL LACK
OF STRONGER FORCING/CONVERGENCE SHOULD LEAD TO ISOLATED COVERAGE
FOR ANY AFTERNOON STORMS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
ON SUNDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN FORECAST
AREA BY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE ABOUT 1500 J/KG OF SFC CAPE AHEAD
OF THE WAVE...AND STRONG DEEP SHEAR AROUND 55KT. THE MAIN THING
WILL BE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE...AND SPC HAS INTRODUCED A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY FOR
FATHERS DAY.
MONDAY TO THURSDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED WITH ZONAL TO NW
FLOW ALOFT WITH PERIODIC SHORT WAVES AND FROPAS PUSHING ACROSS THE
AREA. TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE WAVES WITH WHERE AND WHEN TO
INCREASE OR DECREASE POPS IS TOO UNCERTAIN OTHER THAN MAKE A CHC
MENTION FOR MOST OF THE AREAS EVERYDAY IN THE EXTENDED. THE
EXCEPTION IS MONDAY WITH A DRY DAY EXPECTED AS A WEAK SFC HIGH IS
PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK
WITH UPP70S TO NEAR 80 FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE RETURN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THIS DEPENDS LARGELY ON
ORIENTATION AND MOVEMENT OF SFC BOUNDARY. INTRODUCED -TSRA TO ALL
SITES AT OR AFTER 00Z TRENDING TO SHRA OVERNIGHT. MVFR CONDS TO
ACCOMPANY TSRA AND LINGER INTO SAT MORNING. SOUTH WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO NORTH WHEN BOUNDARY SINKS TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING OR
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...JK/DK
AVIATION...WJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
100 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST UPDATE REGARDING TIMING
AND THREATS AS SUPPORTED BY 14-16 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS AND THE
FULL 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC SUITE. ONGOING FORECAST BLENDED TO
OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 17 UTC.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 946 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
THE 11-13 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS...00 UTC SPC WRF AND 12 UTC NAM ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE POTENTIAL EVOLUTION OF THE SEVERE
CONVECTIVE EVENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING. THE
CONSENSUS IS FOR POTENTIAL SUPERCELLS TO INITIATE OR CROSS INTO
FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 22 UTC WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MULTIPLE
IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE FAST WESTERLIES ALOFT. 2000-2500 J/KG OF
ML CAPE AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS GENERALLY SOUTH
OF ND HIGHWAY 200 SUPPORTS SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. WHILE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS WEAK AND LCLS
A BIT HIGH...CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT A TORNADO OR TWO GIVEN
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS TO BEGIN THE EVENT. CONGEALING OF STORMS INTO
A POSSIBLE MCS IS STILL FAVORED LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...LOW LEVEL STRATUS THIS MORNING MAY HELP TO
LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT FOR TODAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD THIS MORNING. RAISED POPS NORTH CENTRAL
THIS MORNING...AND UPDATED POPS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
EARLY THIS MORNING A COMPLEX OF SEVERE STORMS WAS MOVING ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF NORTH DAKOTA.
LOCATIONS ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN AND
LIGHTNING...BUT THE MAIN STORM WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH.
OTHERWISE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY FORMING ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA ON THE NOSE OF A POTENT LOW LEVEL JET. THIS
ACTIVITY WAS PICKED UP WELL BY THE HRRR AND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SEVERE
CHANCES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS SKIES SHOULD CLEAR AND LEAD TO
PLENTY OF AFTERNOON HEATING.
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. INITIAL STORMS COULD
RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND BECOME SUPERCELLULAR WITH 2K+ CAPE...50
KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE FORCING
PROVIDED BY A SURFACE LOW AND APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. INITIAL THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WOULD BE VERY LARGE
HAIL...A FEW TORNADOES...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND DAMAGING WIND.
CONVECTIVE MODELS (WRFS) THEN INDICATE MERGING OF CELLS INTO A
LINE SEGMENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE EXACTLY THIS POTENTIAL LINE WOULD
DEVELOP/MOVE. THE NSSL WRF SHOWS THE BULK OF THE LINE QUICKLY
DIVING INTO SOUTH DAKOTA...FOLLOWING A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE THIS
EARLY MORNING`S COMPLEX. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT
WITH AN EVENING/OVERNIGHT SQUALL LINE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN ACTIVE
PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
ON SATURDAY...A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. 19 JUN 00 UTC ECMWF/GFS MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS 20 TO
40 KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH 1000-2000J/KG
MUCAPE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING COMPARED
TO FRIDAY...BUT WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS.
ON SUNDAY A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED JET MAX TRACK
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN HIGHER BULK SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE
WITH MUCAPES AGAIN CLIMBING TO 1000-2000J/KG. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO TRAVERSE THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY...
WITH ANOTHER POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
AN ACTIVE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH NEARLY DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
IN GENERAL...EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S AND MORNING LOWS IN
THE 50S THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INITIATING AFTER 20Z FRIDAY IN WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND AROUND 00Z SATURDAY IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...IS THE MAIN
HAZARD FOR THE TERMINALS. STRONG WINDS...HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO
MENTION HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTS TO 45KT AT KDIK/KBIS/KJMS
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. KISN/KMOT REMAINS MORE
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME FOR HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS AND HAVE DECIDED TO
MENTION MODERATE AT KISN AND VCTS AT KMOT. SEVERE WEATHER WILL
DIMINISH BY AROUND 06Z WITH KJMS THE LAST REMAINING AERODROME TO
HAVE SHOWERS THROUGH 07Z. STRATUS/MVFR CIGS TO FOLLOW FOR KJMS
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH SCT CLOUDS ELSEWHERE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1001 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1001 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
UPPER WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA INDUCING 850MB LOW LEVEL JET AND ENHANCED REGION OF 850MB
WARM AIR ADVECTION...WITH ASSOCIATED RADAR RETURNS ACROSS NE ND
AND NW MN. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. INCREASED POPS
FOR THIS AREA OF SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER ACTIVITY (FOLLOWING THE
LATEST HRRR FOR TIMING). LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS DECREASING...A
SIGN THAT THIS FORCING IS OUTRUNNING INSTABILITY.
THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...IN AN
AREA OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...EVIDENT FROM SATELLITE
IMAGERY.
MAJOR QUESTIONS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL
BE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT...AND THEN HOW
FAR NORTH WILL THE MCS THAT DEVELOPMENTS ACROSS THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS TRACK OVERNIGHT. LATEST SYNOPTIC MODELS AND CAM GUIDANCE
TRENDING TOWARD MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY (DUE TO
CAPPING ISSUES). THIS SFC BOUNDARY (WARM FRONT) WILL BE POSITIONED
FROM SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. SYNOPTIC
FORCING (FROM A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WAVE) WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL
CLOSER TO 03Z. THUS...LIKE THE IDEA OF POSSIBLY ISOLD STORMS
CLOSER TO 00Z ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY (AND POSSIBLY NO STORMS).
ADJUSTED POPS AND DELAYED T+ MENTION UNTIL 00Z. AS THE SYNOPTIC
FORCING OVERRIDES THE REGION...THINKING THAT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
WILL INCREASE...INCREASING SEVERE POTENTIAL. THERE WILL ALSO BE
THE MCS THAT INITIATES ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...AND NOT SURE
THE AFFECT THIS WILL HAVE ON ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH...OR WHERE THIS
SYSTEM WILL TRACK (MAY AFFECT THE SOUTHERN FA). WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AND HOPEFULLY HAVE MORE DETAILS WITH THE 1PM UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
A BAND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION IS FORMING IN CENTRAL INTO NE ND
EARLY THIS MORNING THE HRRR AND OTHER CAM MODELS HAVE THIS WELL IN
HAND...AND EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO MOVE/DEVELOP INTO
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN VALLEY THROUGH THIS
MORNING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE
FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE EXACT DETAILS ARE ALWAYS
CHALLENGING WITH CONVECTION...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...EXPECT A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION THROUGH THE MORNING IN THE NORTH. THERE WILL BE
INCREASING INSTABILITY THROUGH THE DAY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
VALLEY. MODELS HINT AT SOME RE-DEVELOPMENT IN THE NORTH AND
WESTERN FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SFC CAPE AROUND 2000
J/KG. IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...ALTHOUGH ANY AREAS
THAT HEAT OUT TODAY WITH TDS INCREASING WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.
DEEP LAYERED SHEAR THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE STRONG...AROUND
50KT...SO ANY STORMS THAT FORM IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA COULD BE
SUPERCELLULAR INITIALLY. THERE SHOULD BE A LARGER SEVERE TYPE MCS
MOVING FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS INTO THE SOUTHERN VALLEY...OR VERY
CLOSE...LATER TONIGHT FROM 6Z-12Z. THIS WILL BE FED BY A STRONG
LLJ AROUND 50KT AND PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES ON THE GFS AND NAM.
WILL MENTION SEVERE IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA 18Z-06Z...THEN IN THE
SOUTHERN FA 6Z-12Z WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE HERE ALSO.
FOR SATURDAY...THERE WILL BE INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ACTIVE W/NW FLOW ALOFT. THE OVERALL LACK
OF STRONGER FORCING/CONVERGENCE SHOULD LEAD TO ISOLATED COVERAGE
FOR ANY AFTERNOON STORMS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
ON SUNDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN FORECAST
AREA BY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE ABOUT 1500 J/KG OF SFC CAPE AHEAD
OF THE WAVE...AND STRONG DEEP SHEAR AROUND 55KT. THE MAIN THING
WILL BE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE...AND SPC HAS INTRODUCED A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY FOR
FATHERS DAY.
MONDAY TO THURSDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED WITH ZONAL TO NW
FLOW ALOFT WITH PERIODIC SHORT WAVES AND FROPAS PUSHING ACROSS THE
AREA. TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE WAVES WITH WHERE AND WHEN TO
INCREASE OR DECREASE POPS IS TOO UNCERTAIN OTHER THAN MAKE A CHC
MENTION FOR MOST OF THE AREAS EVERYDAY IN THE EXTENDED. THE
EXCEPTION IS MONDAY WITH A DRY DAY EXPECTED AS A WEAK SFC HIGH IS
PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK
WITH UPP70S TO NEAR 80 FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH TONIGHT.
AFTER THIS MORNINGS BAND OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS...STRONGER
STORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. EXPECT OVERALL
VFR CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR STRONGER
SHOWERS AND STORMS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY
OVERNIGHT BEHIND A SFC BOUNDARY.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...JK/DK
AVIATION...DK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
959 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
THE 11-13 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS...00 UTC SPC WRF AND 12 UTC NAM ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE POTENTIAL EVOLUTION OF THE SEVERE
CONVECTIVE EVENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING. THE
CONSENSUS IS FOR POTENTIAL SUPERCELLS TO INITIATE OR CROSS INTO
FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 22 UTC WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MULTIPLE
IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE FAST WESTERLIES ALOFT. 2000-2500 J/KG OF
ML CAPE AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS GENERALLY SOUTH
OF ND HIGHWAY 200 SUPPORTS SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. WHILE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS WEAK AND LCLS
A BIT HIGH...CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT A TORNADO OR TWO GIVEN
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS TO BEGIN THE EVENT. CONGEALING OF STORMS INTO
A POSSIBLE MCS IS STILL FAVORED LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...LOW LEVEL STRATUS THIS MORNING MAY HELP TO
LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT FOR TODAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD THIS MORNING. RAISED POPS NORTH CENTRAL
THIS MORNING...AND UPDATED POPS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
EARLY THIS MORNING A COMPLEX OF SEVERE STORMS WAS MOVING ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF NORTH DAKOTA.
LOCATIONS ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN AND
LIGHTNING...BUT THE MAIN STORM WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH.
OTHERWISE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY FORMING ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA ON THE NOSE OF A POTENT LOW LEVEL JET. THIS
ACTIVITY WAS PICKED UP WELL BY THE HRRR AND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SEVERE
CHANCES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS SKIES SHOULD CLEAR AND LEAD TO
PLENTY OF AFTERNOON HEATING.
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. INITIAL STORMS COULD
RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND BECOME SUPERCELLULAR WITH 2K+ CAPE...50
KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE FORCING
PROVIDED BY A SURFACE LOW AND APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. INITIAL THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WOULD BE VERY LARGE
HAIL...A FEW TORNADOES...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND DAMAGING WIND.
CONVECTIVE MODELS (WRFS) THEN INDICATE MERGING OF CELLS INTO A
LINE SEGMENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE EXACTLY THIS POTENTIAL LINE WOULD
DEVELOP/MOVE. THE NSSL WRF SHOWS THE BULK OF THE LINE QUICKLY
DIVING INTO SOUTH DAKOTA...FOLLOWING A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE THIS
EARLY MORNING`S COMPLEX. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT
WITH AN EVENING/OVERNIGHT SQUALL LINE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN ACTIVE
PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
ON SATURDAY...A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. 19 JUN 00 UTC ECMWF/GFS MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS 20 TO
40 KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH 1000-2000J/KG
MUCAPE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING COMPARED
TO FRIDAY...BUT WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS.
ON SUNDAY A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED JET MAX TRACK
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN HIGHER BULK SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE
WITH MUCAPES AGAIN CLIMBING TO 1000-2000J/KG. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO TRAVERSE THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY...
WITH ANOTHER POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
AN ACTIVE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH NEARLY DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
IN GENERAL...EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S AND MORNING LOWS IN
THE 50S THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 946 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
MVFR/IFR STRATUS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY LIFT WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LIFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
637 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD THIS MORNING. RAISED POPS NORTH CENTRAL
THIS MORNING...AND UPDATED POPS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
EARLY THIS MORNING A COMPLEX OF SEVERE STORMS WAS MOVING ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF NORTH DAKOTA.
LOCATIONS ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN AND
LIGHTNING...BUT THE MAIN STORM WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH.
OTHERWISE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY FORMING ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA ON THE NOSE OF A POTENT LOW LEVEL JET. THIS
ACTIVITY WAS PICKED UP WELL BY THE HRRR AND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SEVERE
CHANCES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS SKIES SHOULD CLEAR AND LEAD TO
PLENTY OF AFTERNOON HEATING.
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. INITIAL STORMS COULD
RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND BECOME SUPERCELLULAR WITH 2K+ CAPE...50
KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE FORCING
PROVIDED BY A SURFACE LOW AND APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. INITIAL THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WOULD BE VERY LARGE
HAIL...A FEW TORNADOES...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND DAMAGING WIND.
CONVECTIVE MODELS (WRFS) THEN INDICATE MERGING OF CELLS INTO A
LINE SEGMENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE EXACTLY THIS POTENTIAL LINE WOULD
DEVELOP/MOVE. THE NSSL WRF SHOWS THE BULK OF THE LINE QUICKLY
DIVING INTO SOUTH DAKOTA...FOLLOWING A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE THIS
EARLY MORNING`S COMPLEX. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT
WITH AN EVENING/OVERNIGHT SQUALL LINE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN ACTIVE
PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
ON SATURDAY...A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. 19 JUN 00 UTC ECMWF/GFS MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS 20 TO
40 KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH 1000-2000J/KG
MUCAPE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING COMPARED
TO FRIDAY...BUT WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS.
ON SUNDAY A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED JET MAX TRACK
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN HIGHER BULK SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE
WITH MUCAPES AGAIN CLIMBING TO 1000-2000J/KG. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO TRAVERSE THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY...
WITH ANOTHER POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
AN ACTIVE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH NEARLY DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
IN GENERAL...EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S AND MORNING LOWS IN
THE 50S THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO
BEGIN THE 12Z TAF PERIOD AT MINOT. LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS AT KISN
THROUGH AROUND 15 UTC. MAINLY VFR CONDIITONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING
FROM KDIK-KBIS-KJMS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME STORMS BECOMING SEVERE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
619 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS MORNING. THE BAND OF ELEVATED SHOWERS WITH A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL AFFECT MAINLY NORTHERN AREAS THIS
MORNING. THE NAM/GFS STILL INDICATE THE THREAT FOR SFC BASED
CONVECTION AFTER 21Z NEAR THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN...THEN MOVING EAST
THIS EVENING. THE MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE MCS SHOULD AFFECT THE FAR
SOUTHERN VALLEY LATER TONIGHT...AND WE WILL MONITOR SEVERE THREAT
TODAY CLOSELY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
A BAND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION IS FORMING IN CENTRAL INTO NE ND
EARLY THIS MORNING THE HRRR AND OTHER CAM MODELS HAVE THIS WELL IN
HAND...AND EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO MOVE/DEVELOP INTO
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN VALLEY THROUGH THIS
MORNING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE
FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE EXACT DETAILS ARE ALWAYS
CHALLENGING WITH CONVECTION...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...EXPECT A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION THROUGH THE MORNING IN THE NORTH. THERE WILL BE
INCREASING INSTABILITY THROUGH THE DAY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
VALLEY. MODELS HINT AT SOME RE-DEVELOPMENT IN THE NORTH AND
WESTERN FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SFC CAPE AROUND 2000
J/KG. IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...ALTHOUGH ANY AREAS
THAT HEAT OUT TODAY WITH TDS INCREASING WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.
DEEP LAYERED SHEAR THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE STRONG...AROUND
50KT...SO ANY STORMS THAT FORM IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA COULD BE
SUPERCELLULAR INITIALLY. THERE SHOULD BE A LARGER SEVERE TYPE MCS
MOVING FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS INTO THE SOUTHERN VALLEY...OR VERY
CLOSE...LATER TONIGHT FROM 6Z-12Z. THIS WILL BE FED BY A STRONG
LLJ AROUND 50KT AND PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES ON THE GFS AND NAM.
WILL MENTION SEVERE IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA 18Z-06Z...THEN IN THE
SOUTHERN FA 6Z-12Z WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE HERE ALSO.
FOR SATURDAY...THERE WILL BE INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ACTIVE W/NW FLOW ALOFT. THE OVERALL LACK
OF STRONGER FORCING/CONVERGENCE SHOULD LEAD TO ISOLATED COVERAGE
FOR ANY AFTERNOON STORMS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
ON SUNDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN FORECAST
AREA BY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE ABOUT 1500 J/KG OF SFC CAPE AHEAD
OF THE WAVE...AND STRONG DEEP SHEAR AROUND 55KT. THE MAIN THING
WILL BE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE...AND SPC HAS INTRODUCED A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY FOR
FATHERS DAY.
MONDAY TO THURSDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED WITH ZONAL TO NW
FLOW ALOFT WITH PERIODIC SHORT WAVES AND FROPAS PUSHING ACROSS THE
AREA. TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE WAVES WITH WHERE AND WHEN TO
INCREASE OR DECREASE POPS IS TOO UNCERTAIN OTHER THAN MAKE A CHC
MENTION FOR MOST OF THE AREAS EVERYDAY IN THE EXTENDED. THE
EXCEPTION IS MONDAY WITH A DRY DAY EXPECTED AS A WEAK SFC HIGH IS
PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK
WITH UPP70S TO NEAR 80 FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH TONIGHT.
AFTER THIS MORNINGS BAND OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS...STRONGER
STORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. EXPECT OVERALL
VFR CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR STRONGER
SHOWERS AND STORMS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY
OVERNIGHT BEHIND A SFC BOUNDARY.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...JK/DK
AVIATION...DK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
332 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
A BAND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION IS FORMING IN CENTRAL INTO NE ND
EARLY THIS MORNING THE HRRR AND OTHER CAM MODELS HAVE THIS WELL IN
HAND...AND EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO MOVE/DEVELOP INTO
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN VALLEY THROUGH THIS
MORNING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE
FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE EXACT DETAILS ARE ALWAYS
CHALLENGING WITH CONVECTION...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...EXPECT A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION THROUGH THE MORNING IN THE NORTH. THERE WILL BE
INCREASING INSTABILITY THROUGH THE DAY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
VALLEY. MODELS HINT AT SOME RE-DEVELOPMENT IN THE NORTH AND
WESTERN FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SFC CAPE AROUND 2000
J/KG. IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...ALTHOUGH ANY AREAS
THAT HEAT OUT TODAY WITH TDS INCREASING WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.
DEEP LAYERED SHEAR THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE STRONG...AROUND
50KT...SO ANY STORMS THAT FORM IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA COULD BE
SUPERCELLULAR INITIALLY. THERE SHOULD BE A LARGER SEVERE TYPE MCS
MOVING FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS INTO THE SOUTHERN VALLEY...OR VERY
CLOSE...LATER TONIGHT FROM 6Z-12Z. THIS WILL BE FED BY A STRONG
LLJ AROUND 50KT AND PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES ON THE GFS AND NAM.
WILL MENTION SEVERE IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA 18Z-06Z...THEN IN THE
SOUTHERN FA 6Z-12Z WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE HERE ALSO.
FOR SATURDAY...THERE WILL BE INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ACTIVE W/NW FLOW ALOFT. THE OVERALL LACK
OF STRONGER FORCING/CONVERGENCE SHOULD LEAD TO ISOLATED COVERAGE
FOR ANY AFTERNOON STORMS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
ON SUNDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN FORECAST
AREA BY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE ABOUT 1500 J/KG OF SFC CAPE AHEAD
OF THE WAVE...AND STRONG DEEP SHEAR AROUND 55KT. THE MAIN THING
WILL BE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE...AND SPC HAS INTRODUCED A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY FOR
FATHERS DAY.
MONDAY TO THURSDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED WITH ZONAL TO NW
FLOW ALOFT WITH PERIODIC SHORT WAVES AND FROPAS PUSHING ACROSS THE
AREA. TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE WAVES WITH WHERE AND WHEN TO
INCREASE OR DECREASE POPS IS TOO UNCERTAIN OTHER THAN MAKE A CHC
MENTION FOR MOST OF THE AREAS EVERYDAY IN THE EXTENDED. THE
EXCEPTION IS MONDAY WITH A DRY DAY EXPECTED AS A WEAK SFC HIGH IS
PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK
WITH UPP70S TO NEAR 80 FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL TURN MORE
SOUTHERLY LATER IN THE PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
THE DAKOTAS. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS STILL PROGGED TO CROSS THE
AREA GENERATING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AROUND 12Z...AND MADE
MENTION IN THE TAFS. CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER INCREASING A BIT FOR
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THE
FA...WITH BEST CHANCES AFTER THE 00Z TIME FRAME.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...JK/DK
AVIATION...HOPKINS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
317 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
EARLY THIS MORNING A COMPLEX OF SEVERE STORMS WAS MOVING ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF NORTH DAKOTA.
LOCATIONS ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN AND
LIGHTNING...BUT THE MAIN STORM WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH.
OTHERWISE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY FORMING ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA ON THE NOSE OF A POTENT LOW LEVEL JET. THIS
ACTIVITY WAS PICKED UP WELL BY THE HRRR AND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SEVERE
CHANCES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS SKIES SHOULD CLEAR AND LEAD TO
PLENTY OF AFTERNOON HEATING.
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. INITIAL STORMS COULD
RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND BECOME SUPERCELLULAR WITH 2K+ CAPE...50
KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE FORCING
PROVIDED BY A SURFACE LOW AND APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. INITIAL THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WOULD BE VERY LARGE
HAIL...A FEW TORNADOES...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND DAMAGING WIND.
CONVECTIVE MODELS (WRFS) THEN INDICATE MERGING OF CELLS INTO A
LINE SEGMENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE EXACTLY THIS POTENTIAL LINE WOULD
DEVELOP/MOVE. THE NSSL WRF SHOWS THE BULK OF THE LINE QUICKLY
DIVING INTO SOUTH DAKOTA...FOLLOWING A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE THIS
EARLY MORNING`S COMPLEX. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT
WITH AN EVENING/OVERNIGHT SQUALL LINE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN ACTIVE
PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
ON SATURDAY...A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. 19 JUN 00 UTC ECMWF/GFS MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS 20 TO
40 KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH 1000-2000J/KG
MUCAPE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING COMPARED
TO FRIDAY...BUT WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS.
ON SUNDAY A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED JET MAX TRACK
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN HIGHER BULK SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE
WITH MUCAPES AGAIN CLIMBING TO 1000-2000J/KG. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO TRAVERSE THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY...
WITH ANOTHER POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
AN ACTIVE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH NEARLY DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
IN GENERAL...EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S AND MORNING LOWS IN
THE 50S THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME SHOWERS WITH A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING NEAR KISN/KMOT. A
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA SHOULD STAY
WELL TO THE SOUTH OF KDIK. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME STORMS BECOMING SEVERE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1045 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
.AVIATION... COULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP NORTHWARD INTO NORTH
TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT. HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AT
SPS/LAW/OKC/OUN. SHOULD SEE BREAK UP/RISE BY MID-MORNING. OTHERWISE
S/SW WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH SOME GUSTS
APPROACHING 30KTS BY AFTN.
30
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 904 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015/
.UPDATE...
DELAYED RAIN CHANCES IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA UNTIL AFTER 4 AM
TONIGHT. MADE VERY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER TONIGHT
AS WELL.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WARM AND MUGGY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. ANY RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO LOCATIONS SOUTH OF A WICHITA FALLS TO ADA
LINE AND AFTER 4 AM TONIGHT.
BASED ON LATEST RADARS INDICATING NO ECHOES IN THE LOCATIONS
MENTIONED ABOVE AND LATEST HRRR RUNS...DELAYED RAIN CHANCES UNTIL
AFTER 4 AM TONIGHT IN THOSE LOCATIONS. NO STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED...THOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD OCCUR AS THE
AIR IS QUITE MOIST WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S.
LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE ALSO HINTED THAT WEAKENING CONVECTION FROM A
DECAYING MCS COULD MOVE INTO FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AFTER 6 AM
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SEEMS TO BE TOO FAR SOUTH AND UNLIKELY AS MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND CAPPING SEEM TO BE VERY STRONG OVER THE
AREA...SO DISCOUNTED THIS SOLUTION.
CLOUD COVER WAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY UPWARDS SOUTH OF I-40 TONIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE AND WERE NOT ALTERED.
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.
MBS
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS 09-16Z SOUTH OF KCSM-
KSWO...BUT WAS NOT MENTIONED DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.
30/17
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A MID-LEVEL LOW/SHEAR AXIS OVER TEXAS...WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOP OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH
SUNDAY. SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL HAVE
THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN...AS THIS FEATURE MOVES NORTHEAST.
MEANWHILE...HEIGHT RISES WILL OCCUR AS AN ELONGATED RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BACK THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
BY EARLY SUNDAY...SOME LOW TO MID CLOUDS SHOULD COVER AT LEAST
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FA.
DRY AND HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS COMBINED WITH A
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...SHOULD
PUSH A COLD FRONT CLOSER TO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73 92 72 92 / 0 10 10 0
HOBART OK 71 94 72 95 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 73 93 73 95 / 10 10 10 10
GAGE OK 71 95 71 95 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 74 95 75 95 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 74 91 72 93 / 30 40 30 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
17/30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
941 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST ON-TRACK. HRRR TAKES MINOR NORTHEAST TEXAS
CONVECTION NEAR/INTO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ZONES LATE
TONIGHT SUNDAY MORNING. LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.
GW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 77 92 76 95 / 0 0 10 10
FSM 73 92 74 95 / 0 20 10 10
MLC 74 89 75 92 / 0 10 10 10
BVO 73 92 73 95 / 0 0 10 10
FYV 69 87 71 90 / 0 20 10 10
BYV 74 88 72 90 / 0 10 10 10
MKO 73 90 73 93 / 0 10 10 10
MIO 73 91 74 93 / 0 10 10 10
F10 73 89 74 92 / 0 0 10 10
HHW 75 89 73 91 / 20 20 10 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
904 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
.UPDATE...
DELAYED RAIN CHANCES IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA UNTIL AFTER 4 AM
TONIGHT. MADE VERY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER TONIGHT
AS WELL.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WARM AND MUGGY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. ANY RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO LOCATIONS SOUTH OF A WICHITA FALLS TO ADA
LINE AND AFTER 4 AM TONIGHT.
BASED ON LATEST RADARS INDICATING NO ECHOES IN THE LOCATIONS
MENTIONED ABOVE AND LATEST HRRR RUNS...DELAYED RAIN CHANCES UNTIL
AFTER 4 AM TONIGHT IN THOSE LOCATIONS. NO STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED...THOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD OCCUR AS THE
AIR IS QUITE MOIST WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S.
LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE ALSO HINTED THAT WEAKENING CONVECTION FROM A
DECAYING MCS COULD MOVE INTO FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AFTER 6 AM
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SEEMS TO BE TOO FAR SOUTH AND UNLIKELY AS MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND CAPPING SEEM TO BE VERY STRONG OVER THE
AREA...SO DISCOUNTED THIS SOLUTION.
CLOUD COVER WAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY UPWARDS SOUTH OF I-40 TONIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE AND WERE NOT ALTERED.
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.
MBS
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS 09-16Z SOUTH OF KCSM-
KSWO...BUT WAS NOT MENTIONED DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.
30/17
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A MID-LEVEL LOW/SHEAR AXIS OVER TEXAS...WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOP OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH
SUNDAY. SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL HAVE
THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN...AS THIS FEATURE MOVES NORTHEAST.
MEANWHILE...HEIGHT RISES WILL OCCUR AS AN ELONGATED RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BACK THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
BY EARLY SUNDAY...SOME LOW TO MID CLOUDS SHOULD COVER AT LEAST
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FA.
DRY AND HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS COMBINED WITH A
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...SHOULD
PUSH A COLD FRONT CLOSER TO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73 92 72 92 / 0 10 10 0
HOBART OK 71 94 72 95 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 73 93 73 95 / 10 10 10 10
GAGE OK 71 95 71 95 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 74 95 75 95 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 74 91 72 93 / 30 40 30 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
17/30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1206 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 18Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. DUE TO THE SATURATED
GROUND THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG SATURDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER... FORECASTING FOG FOR ANY PARTICULAR SITE WILL
BE IMPOSSIBLE AT THIS TIME... SO IS NOT INCLUDED IN ANY TAFS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015/
DISCUSSION...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST PRODUCTS EARLIER THIS MORNING TO REMOVE
ALL POPS FROM THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. ALL OTHER FORECAST
ELEMENTS REMAIN ON TRACK AT THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS AFTERNOON AT THE
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TAF SITES. THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA SITES MAY SEE
OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING...BUT VFR WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT. ALL SITES WILL BE VFR FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THE CENTER OF BILL HAS EXITED THE TULSA COUNTY WARNING AREA AND IS NOW
CENTERED OVER FAR EASTERN JOHNSON COUNTY ARKANSAS. MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES
TO WRAP AROUND BILL AND AFFECT NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AT THIS HOUR. WILL
KEEP FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE THROUGH 12Z. MAY TRIM THE OKLAHOMA COUNTIES
OUT OF THE WATCH PRIOR TO THE ISSUANCE OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WILL KEEP
SOME POPS THROUGH 18Z FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE HRRR HAS THE
BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK....THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE
BIG STORY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. THE HUMIDITY WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN HOTTER.
HOWEVER...BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR NOW.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY SNEAK INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RETROGRADES TO THE
WEST...RESULTING IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...
THIS OCCURS JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...06
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1100 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.DISCUSSION...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST PRODUCTS EARLIER THIS MORNING TO REMOVE
ALL POPS FROM THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. ALL OTHER FORECAST
ELEMENTS REMAIN ON TRACK AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS AFTERNOON AT THE
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TAF SITES. THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA SITES MAY SEE
OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING...BUT VFR WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT. ALL SITES WILL BE VFR FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THE CENTER OF BILL HAS EXITED THE TULSA COUNTY WARNING AREA AND IS NOW
CENTERED OVER FAR EASTERN JOHNSON COUNTY ARKANSAS. MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES
TO WRAP AROUND BILL AND AFFECT NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AT THIS HOUR. WILL
KEEP FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE THROUGH 12Z. MAY TRIM THE OKLAHOMA COUNTIES
OUT OF THE WATCH PRIOR TO THE ISSUANCE OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WILL KEEP
SOME POPS THROUGH 18Z FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE HRRR HAS THE
BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK....THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE
BIG STORY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. THE HUMIDITY WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN HOTTER.
HOWEVER...BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR NOW.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY SNEAK INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RETROGRADES TO THE
WEST...RESULTING IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...
THIS OCCURS JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
629 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS AFTERNOON AT THE
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TAF SITES. THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA SITES MAY SEE
OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING...BUT VFR WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT. ALL SITES WILL BE VFR FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THE CENTER OF BILL HAS EXITED THE TULSA COUNTY WARNING AREA AND IS NOW
CENTERED OVER FAR EASTERN JOHNSON COUNTY ARKANSAS. MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES
TO WRAP AROUND BILL AND AFFECT NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AT THIS HOUR. WILL
KEEP FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE THROUGH 12Z. MAY TRIM THE OKLAHOMA COUNTIES
OUT OF THE WATCH PRIOR TO THE ISSUANCE OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WILL KEEP
SOME POPS THROUGH 18Z FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE HRRR HAS THE
BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK....THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE
BIG STORY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. THE HUMIDITY WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN HOTTER.
HOWEVER...BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR NOW.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY SNEAK INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RETROGRADES TO THE
WEST...RESULTING IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...
THIS OCCURS JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY FOR ARZ002-ARZ011-ARZ020.
&&
$$
AVIATION...05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
249 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.DISCUSSION...
THE CENTER OF BILL HAS EXITED THE TULSA COUNTY WARNING AREA AND IS NOW
CENTERED OVER FAR EASTERN JOHNSON COUNTY ARKANSAS. MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES
TO WRAP AROUND BILL AND AFFECT NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AT THIS HOUR. WILL
KEEP FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE THROUGH 12Z. MAY TRIM THE OKLAHOMA COUNTIES
OUT OF THE WATCH PRIOR TO THE ISSUANCE OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WILL KEEP
SOME POPS THROUGH 18Z FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE HRRR HAS THE
BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK....THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE
BIG STORY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. THE HUMIDITY WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN HOTTER.
HOWEVER...BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR NOW.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY SNEAK INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RETROGRADES TO THE
WEST...RESULTING IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...
THIS OCCURS JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 88 73 93 76 / 10 0 10 10
FSM 86 72 94 73 / 30 10 10 10
MLC 87 71 90 75 / 10 10 10 0
BVO 88 69 94 72 / 0 0 10 10
FYV 81 64 89 70 / 40 10 10 10
BYV 79 66 91 71 / 70 10 10 10
MKO 86 70 90 73 / 10 10 10 10
MIO 84 69 92 74 / 10 0 10 10
F10 87 71 90 74 / 10 10 10 10
HHW 89 71 90 73 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY FOR OKZ058-OKZ063-OKZ068-
OKZ069.
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
247 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.UPDATE...
ADDED PRECIP/WX TO W/NW OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING...
&&
.DISCUSSION...
AN ISOLATED AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A NARROW
AXIS OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT ACROSS THE NERN TX/ERN OK
PANHANDLES THIS MORNING. OVERALL... FOR THE PAST HOUR... THIS
ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED FAIRLY STATIONARY. HOWEVER... RECENT RUNS OF
THE HRRR SUGGEST A FEW STORMS MAY DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO W/NW
OK AS THE SFC/MID-LVL TROUGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH
SUNRISE. GIVEN MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND MINIMAL CIN... HAVE
NO QUALMS WITH THE HRRR SOLUTION... EXCEPT IT MAY BE A TAD
AGGRESSIVE. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS THROUGH SUNRISE... WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE THROUGH MID MORNING.
JTK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 929 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015/
DISCUSSION...
HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF RAIN/STORMS FOR TONIGHT THROUGHOUT OUR
FORECAST AREA. IT APPEARS THAT SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING
TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION OVER OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES THIS EVENING...AND THAT THE TEXAS PANHANDLE CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHWEST...AWAY FROM OUR AREA. SEVERAL
MODELS DO SHOW SOME RAIN IN OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES LATE
TONIGHT...BUT THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY ACTUAL MECHANISM TO
BRING THAT ABOUT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY HINTS THAT THIS WILL
HAPPEN...BUT WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY CHANCES AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED FOR THIS EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THE CIRCULATION WITH REMNANTS OF BILL IS JUST EAST OF FORT SMITH
THIS AFTERNOON. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE EARLY EVENING...MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF A SHAWNEE TO ADA AND DURANT LINE. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS
ARE POSSIBLE BUT OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
OTHER ISOLATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOP IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ALONG AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
SO STORM CHANCES IN FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW.
CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA. THIS COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT FOG.
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...RIDGING OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BUILD EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY
DRY WEATHER...WITH HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 89 71 92 71 / 10 10 0 0
HOBART OK 93 71 96 71 / 10 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 93 72 94 72 / 10 0 0 0
GAGE OK 91 71 96 71 / 20 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 89 73 96 75 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 90 72 91 73 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
04/17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
917 AM PDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL PUSH THE
TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST
OREGON THIS MORNING...BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE TO
AREAS NORTH OF SALEM. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CLOUD COVER AND COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO JUNE NORMALS FRIDAY. HOWEVER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUICK TO REBOUND BACK ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AND
SLIGHT COOL DOWN APPEAR LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
RAIN IS EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...MORNING UPDATE...WEAK SURFACE FRONT DISSIPATING ALONG
THE COAST STILL PUSHING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SW
WASHINGTON/FAR NW OREGON COAST...RIGHT AROUND ASTORIA. RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS WEAKENING AS IT DRIFTS A LITTLE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE COAST RANGE THIS MORNING. THIS BAND BROUGHT 0.18"
OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO KAST...WHILE SURROUNDING COASTAL
CITIES SUCH AS TILLAMOOK SAW 0.02" IN THE PAST 6 HOURS. COULD STILL
SEE SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE GET SQUEEZED OUT OF THIS BAND AS THE TROUGH
SHIFTS FURTHER INLAND LATER THIS MORNING. THE 15Z HRRR DATA IS
SUGGESTING THE MAIN THREAT FOR DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN OVER THE COAST
RANGE AND JUST CLIPPING THE NORTHERN VALLEYS. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
WILSONVILLE WILL STAY DRY. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE THE COOLEST INLAND
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. /27
FLOW THEN REMAINS RATHER ZONAL ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...SO THERE IS A REASONABLE CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS
PUSHING INLAND SATURDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY UP THE COLUMBIA TOWARD
THE PDX METRO. MODELS ARE NOT SUGGESTING MUCH CLOUD COVER
SAT MORNING AND SINCE THEY HAVE ACTUALLY BEEN OVERDOING THE INLAND
EXTENT OF LOW CLOUDS THE PAST COUPLE WEEKS WILL BACK OFF ON INLAND
CLOUD COVER.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE EVEN WARMER AS FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE S-SWLY AND
ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WEAKEN AND MAY GO BRIEFLY OFFSHORE IN THE
MORNING. 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF SUGGEST THERMAL LOW PRESSURE WILL START
SUNDAY OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...MOVING ACROSS THE CASCADES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER
ON THE CASCADE CREST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. LOW-LEVEL
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE THERMAL TROUGH CROSSING THE CASCADES COULD
PROVIDE AN ASSIST TO SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION... ESPECIALLY WITH THE
SYNOPTIC TRIGGERS ALOFT. WILL LEAVE THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW...AS SW FLOW ALOFT IS NOT OFTEN FAVORABLE FOR THUNDER ON OUR
SIDE OF THE CASCADE CREST. WEAGLE /26
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY...OVERALL DRY WITH MORNING CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...TRIGGERING A BRIEF
COOLDOWN FOR MONDAY WITH MORE OF A MARINE PUSH BRINGING MORE MARINE
STRATUS TO INLAND VALLEYS. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE FASTER IN PUSHING
THE TROUGH FARTHER EAST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS
IT LINGERING OVERHEAD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF
JUST BELOW OR RIGHT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE MORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. BOTH MODELS ARE HINTING AT A THERMAL TROUGH SETTING UP
OVER THE SOUTH COAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT...AND IF THE GFS GETS ITS WAY
WE COULD SEE IT STRENGTHENING AND LASTING LATE INTO THE WEEK. /27
&&
.AVIATION...REMNANTS OF WEAK FRONT OVER THE REGION...BUT BIG
SPREAD IN CONDITIONS. IFR ON UNDER THICKEST DECK AFFECTING FAR NW
CORNER...WITH MVFR FURTHER INLAND TOWARDS COWLITZ VALLEY AND S
WASHINGTON CASCADES. TO SOUTH OF THAT...MOSTLY VFR WITH CIGS NEAR
4000 FT TO KSLE...THEN SCATTERED CLOUDS TO SOUTH OF KSLE. OVERALL
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE THIS AM...BUT WILL TREND TO GENERALLY VFR FOR
ALL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SCT TO BKN CIGS AROUND 4500 FT.
CIGS WILL REFORM TONIGHT UNDER LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TODAY...WITH CIGS 4000 TO 4500 FT UNTIL
22Z...THEN SCATTERED CLOUDS. CIGS LIKELY TO REFORM AFTER 05Z AS
MARINE LAYER COOLS...BUT SHOULD REMAIN LOW VFR. ROCKEY.
&&
.MARINE...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE. WINDS 15 KT OR LESS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. HIGH PRES WILL REBUILD OVER THE PAC
NW ON SAT...WITH RETURN OF GUSTY N WINDS...MAINLY FOR THE CENTRAL
OREGON COASTAL WATERS. LIKELY NEED AN ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA ON
SAT INTO EARLY SUN AS WINDS GUST 20 TO 25 KT. IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE WINDS...SEAS WILL BUILD UP A TAD...WITH 4 TO 5 FT AND CHOPPY.
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS REGION LATER SUN AND MON WITH
ANOTHER PERIOD OF WEAKER WINDS. BUT AFTERWARDS...NORTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE AGAIN AS N TO S PRES GRADIENTS BUILD. ROCKEY.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
425 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THE MOISTURE WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL WILL BRING
CLOUDS AND RAIN TO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS. SOME
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY. COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE REGION WILL BE IN WEAK WESTERLY FLOW
JUST NORTH OF A MONSTER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. WE WILL BE ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM SO THE WEEK LOOKS RELATIVELY DRY BUT
QUITE WARM.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUED FOR SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INSTABILITY...STRONG SHEAR AND BANDS ABOUT
THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF BILL COULD PRODUCE
SEVERE STORMS. AT THIS TIME HIGHEST THREAT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
TIER AND SOUTH. HRRR SHOWS MORE LINEAR LOOKING CONVECTION
IMPLYING HIGH WIND POTENTIAL. ANY TORNADOES WOULD BE ISOLATED AND
RELATIVELY WEAK.
MODELS SHOW LOTS OF ISSUES WITH CONFIDENCE IN THE RAIN THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. NCEP GEFS/GFS AND THE 16Z HRRR SHIFTED THE
THREAT TO THE NORTH. AWAIT MORE GUIDANCE BEFORE WE MAKE ANY BIG
CHANGES. GEFS SHOWS 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF 2 OR MORE INCHES NORTH OF
OUR CURRENT FLOOD WATCH. BUT SOME INCONSISTENCIES SO MADE NO BIG
CHANGES.
GOOD CHANCE OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN OUR EASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT AS THE
CIRCULATION MOVES ON BY. MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS QUICK END TO RAINFALL
IN THE 11 TO 2 AM TIMEFRAME. AMOUNTS LOWER TO THE NORTH AND WEST.
WHERE THE CONVECTION SETS AND MOVES THROUGH UP WILL DICTATE THE
AREA OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL.
AREAS OF PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE RAIN BEFORE AND AROUND
SUNRISE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
BACK EDGE OF THE BILL/TROPICAL RELATED RAINFALL IN THE SREF PASSES
EAST OF OUR REGION BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM SUNDAY. LINGERING SHOWERS
POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERNMOST AREAS.
THERE IS A POP AND PW MINIMUM BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME
HEATING AND THE MODELS ALL SHOW A SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION.
THE DRIER AIR AND LOWER PWS BEGIN TO MOVE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. EARLY IN THE WEST. NEXT PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY IS WHEN IT REALLY SHOULD DRY OUT ACROSS OUR REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAST ZONAL FLOW WILL BE THE PERSISTENT SYNOPTIC FEATURE ACROSS THE
LOWER 48 DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AND THE DRYING OF SUNDAY
EVENING INTO MONDAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. WITH A HOT 594DM 500 MB
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO THE MID TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY...RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE AND ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
BOUNDARY NOW APPEARS TO STALL OUT ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE PA/MD
BORDER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...GIVING SOME HOPE OF A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER TO AT LEAST NORTHERN PA.
HOWEVER...JUST A SLIGHT NORTHWARD OSCILLATION IN THE PATTERN WOULD
NUDGE MOISTURE AND SHOWER CHANCES BACK TO THE NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE REMNANTS OF BILL WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
OVERNIGHT BRINING RAIN AND LOW CIGS TO THE REGION FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS MORNING AND EARLY TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN
SOUTHERN PA IN THE WARMER AIR. WEAK BANDS ARE ALREADY MOVING
ACROSS WESTERN/WEST CENTRAL PA.
MODIFIED THE TAFS TO SHOW THE MVFR/VFR MOVING MORE STEADILY THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE RAIN FILLS IN OVERTIME. THE HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGEST 23Z TO 04Z WILL BE PEAK LOWERED
CIGS/VSBY WITH RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
THE RAIN AND MOIST AIR WILL PRODUCE FOG AS THE STEADIER RAINFALL
LIFTS TO OUR EAST.
COULD BE SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE COULD TRIGGER A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN.
MONDAY LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET...WE WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF A
MASSIVE RIDGE WHICH IMPLIES WARM DAYS AND MVFR POSSIBLE IN
FOG/HAZE IN MORNINGS. PERHAPS EVEN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS BY
MID-WEEK.
OUTLOOK...
MON...GENERALLY VFR.
TUE...REDUCTIONS PSBL IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.
WED-THU...GENERALLY VFR AREAS AM MVFR IN FOG/HAZE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR PAZ033>036-056>059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...GRUMM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
241 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THE MOISTURE WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL WILL BRING
CLOUDS AND RAIN TO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS. SOME
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY. COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE REGION WILL BE IN WEAK WESTERLY FLOW
JUST NORTH OF A MONSTER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. WE WILL BE ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM SO THE WEEK LOOKS RELATIVELY DRY BUT
QUITE WARM.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUED FOR SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INSTABILITY...STRONG SHEAR AND BANDS ABOUT
THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF BILL COULD PRODUCE
SEVERE STORMS. AT THIS TIME HIGHEST THREAT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
TIER AND SOUTH. HRRR SHOWS MORE LINEAR LOOKING CONVECTION
IMPLYING HIGH WIND POTENTIAL. ANY TORNADOES WOULD BE ISOLATED AND
RELATIVELY WEAK.
MODELS SHOW LOTS OF ISSUES WITH CONFIDENCE IN THE RAIN THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. NCEP GEFS/GFS AND THE 16Z HRRR SHIFTED THE
THREAT TO THE NORTH. AWAIT MORE GUIDANCE BEFORE WE MAKE ANY BIG
CHANGES. GEFS SHOWS 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF 2 OR MORE INCHES NORTH OF
OUR CURRENT FLOOD WATCH. BUT SOME INCONSISTENCIES SO MADE NO BIG
CHANGES.
GOOD CHANCE OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN OUR EASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT AS THE
CIRCULATION MOVES ON BY. MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS QUICK END TO RAINFALL
IN THE 11 TO 2 AM TIMEFRAME. AMOUNTS LOWER TO THE NORTH AND WEST.
WHERE THE CONVECTION SETS AND MOVES THROUGH UP WILL DICTATE THE
AREA OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL.
AREAS OF PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE RAIN BEFORE AND AROUND
SUNRISE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
BACK EDGE OF THE BILL/TROPICAL RELATED RAINFALL IN THE SREF PASSES
EAST OF OUR REGION BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM SUNDAY. LINGERING SHOWERS
POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERNMOST AREAS.
THERE IS A POP AND PW MINIMUM BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME
HEATING AND THE MODELS ALL SHOW A SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION.
THE DRIER AIR AND LOWER PWS BEGIN TO MOVE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. EARLY IN THE WEST. NEXT PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY IS WHEN IT REALLY SHOULD DRY OUT ACROSS OUR REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAST ZONAL FLOW WILL BE THE PERSISTENT SYNOPTIC FEATURE ACROSS THE
LOWER 48 THIS WEEK...AND THE DRYING OF SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. WITH A HOT 594DM 500 MB UPPER RIDGE CENTERED
FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO THE MID TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY ON
TUESDAY...RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE AND ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS BOUNDARY NOW APPEARS TO
STALL OUT ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE PA/MD BORDER FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK...GIVING SOME HOPE OF A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER
TO AT LEAST NORTHERN PA. HOWEVER...JUST A SLIGHT NORTHWARD
OSCILLATION IN THE PATTERN WOULD NUDGE MOISTURE AND SHOWER CHANCES
BACK TO THE NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE REMNANTS OF BILL WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
OVERNIGHT BRINING RAIN AND LOW CIGS TO THE REGION FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS MORNING AND EARLY TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN
SOUTHERN PA IN THE WARMER AIR. WEAK BANDS ARE ALREADY MOVING
ACROSS WESTERN/WEST CENTRAL PA.
MODIFIED THE TAFS TO SHOW THE MVFR/VFR MOVING MORE STEADILY THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE RAIN FILLS IN OVERTIME. THE HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGEST 23Z TO 04Z WILL BE PEAK LOWERED
CIGS/VSBY WITH RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
THE RAIN AND MOIST AIR WILL PRODUCE FOG AS THE STEADIER RAINFALL
LIFTS TO OUR EAST.
COULD BE SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE COULD TRIGGER A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN.
MONDAY LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET...WE WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF A
MASSIVE RIDGE WHICH IMPLIES WARM DAYS AND MVFR POSSIBLE IN
FOG/HAZE IN MORNINGS. PERHAPS EVEN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS BY
MID-WEEK.
OUTLOOK...
MON...GENERALLY VFR.
TUE...REDUCTIONS PSBL IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.
WED-THU...GENERALLY VFR AREAS AM MVFR IN FOG/HAZE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR PAZ033>036-056>059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...GRUMM
AVIATION...GRUMM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
126 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THE MOISTURE WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL WILL BRING
CLOUDS AND RAIN TO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS. SOME
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY. COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE REGION WILL BE IN WEAK WESTERLY FLOW
JUST NORTH OF A MONSTER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. WE WILL BE ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM SO THE WEEK LOOKS RELATIVELY DRY BUT
QUITE WARM.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED FORECAST BASED ON SOME NEW GUIDANCE FROM SREF AND HRRR.
RADAR SHOWS RAIN CLOSE TO OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THE HRRR
IMPLIES A FEW TENTHS OF RAIN LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHWEST.
MORE ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD RAINFALL STILL APPEARS TO COME IN
SLOWLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TODAY. DESPITE HIGH POPS IN THE
40 AND 50S IN MOST NCEP EFS...HRRR WOULD IMPLY OUR
NORTHEASTERNMOST COUNTIES MIGHT NOT SEE RAIN UNTIL THIS EVENING OR
EARLY TONIGHT. WILLIAMSPORT GETS RAIN AN HOUR OR SO EITHER SIDE OF
8 PM AND NOTHING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THEIR UNTIL LATER.
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS PROBABLY WILL NOT SEE STEADY/WIDESPREAD RAINS
UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. CENTRAL AREAS LIKE STATE COLLEGE ARE IN THE
3 TO 5 PM RANGE FOR RAIN COMING IN AND LIGHT AT FIRST.
BY ABOUT 11 PM THE ENTIRE REGION SHOULD SEE RAIN. WITH THE BACK
EDGE ALREADY MOVING TOWARD OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. THE HRRR ALSO
SHOWS A NICE RAIN BAND WITH SOME EMBEDDED STRONGER CONVECTION.
MOST OF THIS IN THE LATEST RUN STAYS TO OUR SOUTH.
THE RAINFALL SHOULD RANGE ABOUT 0.5 TO 2.0 INCHES. MOST AREAS IN
THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD SEE AN INCH OR MORE. THE SREF AND GEFS DO NOT
AGREE BUT NOW THE SREF TOO SHOWS 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF 2 INCHES OR
MORE BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING OF 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL.
BEST CHANCE OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN WOULD BE IN SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
BACK EDGE OF THE BILL/TROPICAL RELATED RAINFALL IN THE SREF PASSES
EAST OF OUR REGION BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM SUNDAY. LINGERING SHOWERS
POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERNMOST AREAS.
THERE IS A POP AND PW MINIMUM BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME
HEATING AND THE MODELS ALL SHOW A SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION.
THE DRIER AIR AND LOWER PWS BEGIN TO MOVE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. EARLY IN THE WEST. NEXT PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY IS WHEN IT REALLY SHOULD DRY OUT ACROSS OUR REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAST ZONAL FLOW WILL BE THE PERSISTENT SYNOPTIC FEATURE ACROSS THE
LOWER 48 THIS WEEK...AND THE DRYING OF SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. WITH A HOT 594DM 500 MB UPPER RIDGE CENTERED
FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO THE MID TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY ON
TUESDAY...RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE AND ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS BOUNDARY NOW APPEARS TO
STALL OUT ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE PA/MD BORDER FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK...GIVING SOME HOPE OF A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER
TO AT LEAST NORTHERN PA. HOWEVER...JUST A SLIGHT NORTHWARD
OSCILLATION IN THE PATTERN WOULD NUDGE MOISTURE AND SHOWER CHANCES
BACK TO THE NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE REMNANTS OF BILL WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
OVERNIGHT BRINING RAIN AND LOW CIGS TO THE REGION FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS MORNING AND EARLY TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN
SOUTHERN PA IN THE WARMER AIR. WEAK BANDS ARE ALREADY MOVING
ACROSS WESTERN/WEST CENTRAL PA.
MODIFIED THE TAFS TO SHOW THE MVFR/VFR MOVING MORE STEADILY THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE RAIN FILLS IN OVERTIME. THE HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGEST 23Z TO 04Z WILL BE PEAK LOWERED
CIGS/VSBY WITH RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
THE RAIN AND MOIST AIR WILL PRODUCE FOG AS THE STEADIER RAINFALL
LIFTS TO OUR EAST.
COULD BE SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE COULD TRIGGER A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN.
MONDAY LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET...WE WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF A
MASSIVE RIDGE WHICH IMPLIES WARM DAYS AND MVFR POSSIBLE IN
FOG/HAZE IN MORNINGS. PERHAPS EVEN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS BY
MID-WEEK.
OUTLOOK...
MON...GENERALLY VFR.
TUE...REDUCTIONS PSBL IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.
WED-THU...GENERALLY VFR AREAS AM MVFR IN FOG/HAZE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR PAZ033>036-056>059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...GRUMM
AVIATION...GRUMM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1113 AM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THE MOISTURE WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL WILL BRING
CLOUDS AND RAIN TO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS. SOME
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY. COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE REGION WILL BE IN WEAK WESTERLY FLOW
JUST NORTH OF A MONSTER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. WE WILL BE ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM SO THE WEEK LOOKS RELATIVELY DRY BUT
QUITE WARM.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED FORECAST BASED ON SOME NEW GUIDANCE FROM SREF AND HRRR.
RADAR SHOWS RAIN CLOSE TO OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THE HRRR
IMPLIES A FEW TENTHS OF RAIN LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHWEST.
MORE ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD RAINFALL STILL APPEARS TO COME IN
SLOWLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TODAY. DESPITE HIGH POPS IN THE
40 AND 50S IN MOST NCEP EFS...HRRR WOULD IMPLY OUR
NORTHEASTERNMOST COUNTIES MIGHT NOT SEE RAIN UNTIL THIS EVENING OR
EARLY TONIGHT. WILLIAMSPORT GETS RAIN AN HOUR OR SO EITHER SIDE OF
8 PM AND NOTHING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THEIR UNTIL LATER.
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS PROBABLY WILL NOT SEE STEADY/WIDESPREAD RAINS
UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. CENTRAL AREAS LIKE STATE COLLEGE ARE IN THE
3 TO 5 PM RANGE FOR RAIN COMING IN AND LIGHT AT FIRST.
BY ABOUT 11 PM THE ENTIRE REGION SHOULD SEE RAIN. WITH THE BACK
EDGE ALREADY MOVING TOWARD OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. THE HRRR ALSO
SHOWS A NICE RAIN BAND WITH SOME EMBEDDED STRONGER CONVECTION.
MOST OF THIS IN THE LATEST RUN STAYS TO OUR SOUTH.
THE RAINFALL SHOULD RANGE ABOUT 0.5 TO 2.0 INCHES. MOST AREAS IN
THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD SEE AN INCH OR MORE. THE SREF AND GEFS DO NOT
AGREE BUT NOW THE SREF TOO SHOWS 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF 2 INCHES OR
MORE BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING OF 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL.
BEST CHANCE OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN WOULD BE IN SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
BACK EDGE OF THE BILL/TROPICAL RELATED RAINFALL IN THE SREF PASSES
EAST OF OUR REGION BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM SUNDAY. LINGERING SHOWERS
POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERNMOST AREAS.
THERE IS A POP AND PW MINIMUM BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME
HEATING AND THE MODELS ALL SHOW A SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION.
THE DRIER AIR AND LOWER PWS BEGIN TO MOVE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. EARLY IN THE WEST. NEXT PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY IS WHEN IT REALLY SHOULD DRY OUT ACROSS OUR REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAST ZONAL FLOW WILL BE THE PERSISTENT SYNOPTIC FEATURE ACROSS THE
LOWER 48 THIS WEEK...AND THE DRYING OF SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. WITH A HOT 594DM 500 MB UPPER RIDGE CENTERED
FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO THE MID TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY ON
TUESDAY...RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE AND ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS BOUNDARY NOW APPEARS TO
STALL OUT ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE PA/MD BORDER FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK...GIVING SOME HOPE OF A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER
TO AT LEAST NORTHERN PA. HOWEVER...JUST A SLIGHT NORTHWARD
OSCILLATION IN THE PATTERN WOULD NUDGE MOISTURE AND SHOWER CHANCES
BACK TO THE NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
REMNANTS OF TS BILL WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
OVERNIGHT BRINING RAIN AND LOW CIGS TO THE REGION FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS MORNING AND EARLY TONIGHT.
MODIFIED THE TAFS TO SHOW SOME SLOWER ONSET TIMES BASED ON BOTH
RADAR AND OUR HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL. SLOWER ONSET OF RAIN AND
LOWER CIGS TO EAST AND NORTH. RAIN IS ALREADY MOVING INTO SOMERSET
COUNTY AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE NORTH AND EAST.
GUIDANCE SHOWS RAIN FROM BILL BEGINS TO END WEST TO EAST AROUND
03Z AND MOST AREAS GO OVER TO SHOWER AND SOME MVFR/IFR IN MIST AND
FOG AS SYSTEM MOVES TO OUR EAST IN THE 12Z TIMEFRAME SUNDAY.
MODELS SHOW BRIEF LULL IN THE SHOWERS BETWEEN EXITING BILL SUNDAY
MORNING AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SO SLOW IMPROVEMENT WILL
BEGIN SUNDAY...AS THE TROPICAL MOISTURE PULLS OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST. SCT SHRA/TSRA REMAIN POSSIBLE...AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES PA
LATE SUNDAY.
MONDAY LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA ON TUES WITH A RENEWED CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA. BEHIND THE
FRONT...WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE GENERALLY VFR.
OUTLOOK...
MON...GENERALLY VFR. ISOLATED TSRA POSS...MAINLY WEST.
TUE...REDUCTIONS PSBL IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.
WED...GENERALLY VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR PAZ033>036-056>059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/GARTNER
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...GRUMM
AVIATION...GRUMM/RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1041 AM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM
BILL WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF PENNSYLVANIA. A DRIER AIR MASS
WILL OVERSPREAD PENNSYLVANIA LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AND STALL SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED FORECAST BASED ON SOME NEW GUIDANCE FROM SREF AND HRRR.
RADAR SHOWS RAIN CLOSE TO OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THE HRRR
IMPLIES A FEW TENTHS OF RAIN LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHWEST.
MORE ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD RAINFALL STILL APPEARS TO COME IN
SLOWLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TODAY. DESPITE HIGH POPS IN THE
40 AND 50S IN MOST NCEP EFS...HRRR WOULD IMPLY OUR
NORTHEASTERNMOST COUNTIES MIGHT NOT SEE RAIN UNTIL THIS EVENING OR
EARLY TONIGHT. WILLIAMSPORT GETS RAIN AN HOUR OR SO EITHER SIDE OF
8 PM AND NOTHING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THEIR UNTIL LATER.
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS PROBABLY WILL NOT SEE STEADY/WIDESPREAD RAINS
UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. CENTRAL AREAS LIKE STATE COLLEGE ARE IN THE
3 TO 5 PM RANGE FOR RAIN COMING IN AND LIGHT AT FIRST.
BY ABOUT 11 PM THE ENTIRE REGION SHOULD SEE RAIN. WITH THE BACK
EDGE ALREADY MOVING TOWARD OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. THE HRRR ALSO
SHOWS A NICE RAIN BAND WITH SOME EMBEDDED STRONGER CONVECTION.
MOST OF THIS IN THE LATEST RUN STAYS TO OUR SOUTH.
THE RAINFALL SHOULD RANGE ABOUT 0.5 TO 2.0 INCHES. MOST AREAS IN
THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD SEE AN INCH OR MORE. THE SREF AND GEFS DO NOT
AGREE BUT NOW THE SREF TOO SHOWS 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF 2 INCHES OR
MORE BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING OF 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL.
BEST CHANCE OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN WOULD BE IN SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
BACK EDGE OF THE BILL/TROPICAL RELATED RAINFALL IN THE SREF PASSES
EAST OF OUR REGION BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM SUNDAY. LINGERING SHOWERS
POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERNMOST AREAS.
THERE IS A POP AND PW MINIMUM BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME
HEATING AND THE MODELS ALL SHOW A SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION.
THE DRIER AIR AND LOWER PWS BEGIN TO MOVE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. EARLY IN THE WEST. NEXT PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY IS WHEN IT REALLY SHOULD DRY OUT ACROSS OUR REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAST ZONAL FLOW WILL BE THE PERSISTENT SYNOPTIC FEATURE ACROSS THE
LOWER 48 THIS WEEK...AND THE DRYING OF SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. WITH A HOT 594DM 500 MB UPPER RIDGE CENTERED
FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO THE MID TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY ON
TUESDAY...RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE AND ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS BOUNDARY NOW APPEARS TO
STALL OUT ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE PA/MD BORDER FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK...GIVING SOME HOPE OF A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER
TO AT LEAST NORTHERN PA. HOWEVER...JUST A SLIGHT NORTHWARD
OSCILLATION IN THE PATTERN WOULD NUDGE MOISTURE AND SHOWER CHANCES
BACK TO THE NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
REMNANTS OF TS BILL WILL BE PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS WEEKEND.
GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF CWA WITH VFR
IN THE EAST AT 11Z. MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY SLIP INTO KIPT SHORTLY
AND LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. BY 18Z...MOST LOCALES SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR...THOUGH RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE SPREADING IN FROM THE
SW AS AS THE CORE OF BILL/S MOISTURE APPROACHES THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH CAPE TO GENERATE SCT TSRA THIS AFT AS
WELL...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF CWA.
EXPECT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE TO AFFECT SRN PA TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS IN SCT TSTMS -
AGAIN MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. GENERALLY MVFR RESTRICTIONS
DEVELOP AGAIN THIS EVENING...WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
SETTLE IN FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
SLOW IMPROVEMENT WILL BEGIN SUNDAY...AS THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
PULLS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. SCT SHRA/TSRA REMAIN POSSIBLE...AS
A COLD FRONT CROSSES PA LATE SUNDAY.
MONDAY LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA ON TUES WITH A RENEWED CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA. BEHIND THE
FRONT...WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE GENERALLY VFR.
OUTLOOK...
MON...GENERALLY VFR. ISOLATED TSRA POSS...MAINLY WEST.
TUE...REDUCTIONS PSBL IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.
WED...GENERALLY VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR PAZ033>036-056>059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/GARTNER
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...GRUMM
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
821 AM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM
BILL WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF PENNSYLVANIA. A DRIER AIR MASS
WILL OVERSPREAD PENNSYLVANIA LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AND STALL SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ADVANCING PLUME OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WITH THE SURFACE
CIRCULATION OVER THE KY/IN BORDER IS STEADILY MOVING EAST.
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SOME SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWESTERN PA. HRRR
FORECASTS THIS TO WEAKEN...BUT ANOTHER BATCH IS A FEW HOURS BEHIND
IT. THE IMPLICATIONS ARE FOR CLOUDY SKIES WITH BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING.
THE RAINFALL SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. HRRR EVEN IMPLIES SOME CONVECTION WHICH MAY BE ENHANCED
RAINFALL RATHER THAN SEVERE WEATHER. SOME OF THE IMPLIED
SIGNATURES ARE QUITE STRONG IMPLYING THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME
STRONGER LINEAR CONVECTION THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.
MOST OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS SHOULD SEE SOME RAIN BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE RAIN COULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
LATER NEAR THE NY BORDER.
THE RAINFALL PICKS UP OVERNIGHT WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION. THE GFS
AND GEFS IMPLY AREAS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AND LOCALLY 3 INCHES IN THE
SOUTHEAST. BUT THE SREF AND NAM PUSH THE RAINFALL FARTHER SOUTH
AND SHOW ABOUT ONLY 60 TO 70 PERCENT OF THE AMOUNTS. STILL
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.
CONVECTION IN NON-CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS IS ALWAYS A
CHALLENGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
MOST GUIDANCE IMPLIES THE HEAVIER AND HIGHER PROBABILITY OF
RAINFALL IS BEFORE 8 TO 12 AM. WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY AS THE TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES EAST.
BY LATE DAY SOME AREAS SHOULD EVEN GET SOME GLIMPSES OF THE SUN.
AT THIS TIME MOST MODELS SHOW THE COLD FRONT LAGS THE TROPICAL
PLUME...SO IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND POTENTIAL SHOWERS WITH THAT FEATURE
TOO. SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED AND LESS ORGANIZED. THE REAL DRY AIR
BEHIND THIS FRONT COMES IN...IN THE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY TO MONDAY
TIMEFRAME.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAST ZONAL FLOW WILL BE THE PERSISTENT SYNOPTIC FEATURE ACROSS THE
LOWER 48 THIS WEEK...AND THE DRYING OF SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. WITH A HOT 594DM 500 MB UPPER RIDGE CENTERED
FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO THE MID TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY ON
TUESDAY...RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE AND ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS BOUNDARY NOW APPEARS TO
STALL OUT ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE PA/MD BORDER FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK...GIVING SOME HOPE OF A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER
TO AT LEAST NORTHERN PA. HOWEVER...JUST A SLIGHT NORTHWARD
OSCILLATION IN THE PATTERN WOULD NUDGE MOISTURE AND SHOWER CHANCES
BACK TO THE NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
REMNANTS OF TS BILL WILL BE PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS WEEKEND.
GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF CWA WITH VFR
IN THE EAST AT 11Z. MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY SLIP INTO KIPT SHORTLY
AND LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. BY 18Z...MOST LOCALES SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR...THOUGH RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE SPREADING IN FROM THE
SW AS AS THE CORE OF BILL/S MOISTURE APPROACHES THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH CAPE TO GENERATE SCT TSRA THIS AFT AS
WELL...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF CWA.
EXPECT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE TO AFFECT SRN PA TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS IN SCT TSTMS -
AGAIN MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. GENERALLY MVFR RESTRICTIONS
DEVELOP AGAIN THIS EVENING...WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
SETTLE IN FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
SLOW IMPROVEMENT WILL BEGIN SUNDAY...AS THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
PULLS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. SCT SHRA/TSRA REMAIN POSSIBLE...AS
A COLD FRONT CROSSES PA LATE SUNDAY.
MONDAY LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA ON TUES WITH A RENEWED CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA. BEHIND THE
FRONT...WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE GENERALLY VFR.
OUTLOOK...
MON...GENERALLY VFR. ISOLATED TSRA POSS...MAINLY WEST.
TUE...REDUCTIONS PSBL IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.
WED...GENERALLY VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR PAZ033>036-056>059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/GARTNER
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...GRUMM
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
231 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING OVER THE STRONG RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH WILL
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. WARM AIR COMING OVER THE
RIDGE COMBINED WITH REMAINS OF BILL AND A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT-
WAVE WILL KEEP IT UNSETTLED HERE. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SOAKING
AND POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN EVENT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR SHOULD PROVIDE RELATIVELY PLEASANT WORK WEEK
AFTER THE WEEKEND RAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS CWA THIS MORNING. THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL BE DRY TODAY, WITH JUST A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS DRIFTING SOUTH WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ANOTHER AREA OF
SHOWERS MOVING INTO SW PA THIS AFTERNOON...THE FIRST BATCH OF
MOISTURE FROM REMNANTS OF BILL. HRRR SHOWS THESE SHOWERS WILL
SLIDE ALONG OR SOUTH OF PA/MD BORDER. SATELLITE SHOWS SOME BREAKS
IN CLOUDS BUT EXPECT THAT TO FILL IN AND SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED
ACROSS THE CWA TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
DEWPOINTS SLOWLY DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT PROVIDING A
MORE COMFORTABLE SLEEPING NIGHT FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL PA. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER
60S OVERNIGHT. PROXIMITY TO STALLED BOUNDARY ALSO MEANS PRECIP
CHANCE CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF CENTRAL PA
OVERNIGHT.KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES GOING OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS
EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. MINS WILL DROP TO AROUND 50F NORTH
TO AROUND 60F SOUTH.
MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS QUASI STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WAGGLES BACK NORTHWARD. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL MOISTURE REMNANTS FROM BILL ARE PROGGED TO MOVED
THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON
LINE ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...PRECIPITABLE H20 VALUES 1.5" TO 2.0"
ARE EXPECTED BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE AND MODERATE CAPES...FUELING SCT TO
NMRS SHRA AND TSRA AND SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NORTH TO AROUND 80 SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE KEY TO THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL RAINFALL AND
POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THAT WILL BE
THE FOCUS. FROM MONDAY UNTIL NEXT THURSDAY...THE GEFS AND NAEFS
SHOW LOWER HEIGHTS AND THE HEAT SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH. THUS OUR
PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) DROPS TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
MOST OF THIS PERIOD. THIS SHOULD KEEP US ON THE DRIER SIDE WITH
NEAR NORMAL 850 HPA TEMPERATURES. THE FOCUS OF THE HOT AIR WILL BE
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. BUT THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE FORECAST IS
RELATIVELY DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THAT PERIOD.
THE BIG ISSUE IS THE DEEP PW PLUME...THE CIRCULATION WITH BILL
AND THE SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM. GUIDANCE SHOWS LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE AREA OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE NCEP GEFS IMPLIES
SOME POTENTIAL AT THE 5 TO 40 PERCENT LEVEL OF OVER 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL. AT THE SAME TIME THE 12Z GFS SHOWS AREAS OF OVER 3
INCHES OF RAINFALL IN SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WOULD
BE ABOUT 75 PERCENT OF OUR 100 YEAR RETURN RAINFALL RATE. ANYTHING
OVER 50 YEAR RETURNS NORMALLY GIVES US SOME MINOR FLOOD ISSUES TO
CONTEND WITH.
OUR BLENDS IMPLY MORE LIKE 0.40 TO 1.2 INCHES OVER OUR REGION. BUT
CLEARLY THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF HIGHER AMOUNTS. WITH A REMNENANT
TROPICAL CIRCULATIONS FORECAST TO PASS OVER OR NEAR SOUTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH END QPF AMOUNTS IS AN ISSUE
MAINLY SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
THE PW PEAKS NEAR 50 MM (2 INCHES) AND ABOUT 2 SIGMA ABOVE NORMAL
WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. ALL SIGNALS POINT TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. WE JUST DO NOT KNOW
WHERE. THE M-CLIMATE SHOWS...SOUTH OF OUR AREA IN THE 00Z
GEFS...THAT THE GEFS IS PRODUCING CLOSE TO AN ALL-TIME HIGH QPF
EVENT. BUT THIS RAINFALL AXIS OF HIGH QPF WAS SOUTH OUR OUR AREA
WITH US ON THE NORTHERN EDGE. NEW GUIDANCE WAS NOT AVAILABLE TO
FORECAST TIME. THE 12Z GEFS SEEMS TO HAVE MOVED THIS REGION
FARTHER NORTH.
IN SUMMARY MOST FORECAST SYSTEM SHOW POTENTIAL BUT MEAN QPF NOT
MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH. VALID RANGE IS LIKELY 0.5 TO 3 INCHES AND
TIMING AND LOCATION WILL CHANGE. WE FOCUSED OUR RAINFALL IN
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PA AND STAYED CLOSE TO THE MEAN. THE
HIGH PW WOULD IMPLY EMBEDDED THUNDER COULD EASILY PUT DOWN 1-2
INCHES OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
THE DRYING OUT SHOULD BEGIN SUNDAY...LOWER POPS LATER IN DAY AND
DRY AIR COULD MOVE IN MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD UPPER TROF AND 40KT 850 MB JET DRIVING AREA OF RAIN AND SCT
CONVECTION TO CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS MORNING. OVERALL AREA IS
SLOWLY DIMINISHING...BUT SCT SHRA/TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSS WITH
ACTIVITY SHIFTING TO THE NORTHERN MTNS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
MVFR/IFR CIGS SHOULD SETTLE IN OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS
OVER NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED MVFR FOG
RESTRICTIONS POSS OVER THE SE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING HOURS.
ISOLATED TSTMS POSS ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...BCMG VFR. ISO TSTMS POSS SOUTH.
SAT-SUN...CIG REDUCTIONS LIKELY WITH PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA.
LOCALLY +RA PSBL SAT NGT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
MON...MAINLY VFR. MVFR WEST WITH ISOLATED TSRA.
TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE TSRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...ROSS
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...GRUMM
AVIATION...ROSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1025 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE LOWER 48 STATES.
FREQUENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS AND NORTHWARD AND SOUTHWARD
OSCILLATIONS OF A TROPICAL MOISTURE BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THIS TIME. A DRIER PATTERN
MAY EMERGE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS CWA THIS MORNING. THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL BE DRY TODAY, WITH JUST A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS DRIFTING SOUTH WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ANOTHER AREA OF
SHOWERS MOVING INTO SW PA THIS AFTERNOON...THE FIRST BATCH OF
MOISTURE FROM REMNANTS OF BILL. HRRR SHOWS THESE SHOWERS WILL
SLIDE ALONG OR SOUTH OF PA/MD BORDER. SATELLITE SHOWS SOME BREAKS
IN CLOUDS BUT EXPECT THAT TO FILL IN AND SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED
ACROSS THE CWA TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
DEWPOINTS SLOWLY DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT PROVIDING A
MORE COMFORTABLE SLEEPING NIGHT FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL PA. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER
60S OVERNIGHT. PROXIMITY TO STALLED BOUNDARY ALSO MEANS PRECIP
CHANCE CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF CENTRAL PA
OVERNIGHT.KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES GOING OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS
EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. MINS WILL DROP TO AROUND 50F NORTH
TO AROUND 60F SOUTH.
MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS QUASI STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WAGGLES BACK NORTHWARD. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL MOISTURE REMNANTS FROM BILL ARE PROGGED TO MOVED
THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON
LINE ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...PRECIPITABLE H20 VALUES 1.5" TO 2.0"
ARE EXPECTED BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE AND MODERATE CAPES...FUELING SCT TO
NMRS SHRA AND TSRA AND SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NORTH TO AROUND 80 SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RAINFALL FROM THE TROPICAL MOISTURE REMNANTS OF BILL MAY BRING
A WIDESPREAD ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE STATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH LESS TO THE
NORTH OF STATE COLLEGE. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AND SO THIS IS STILL A
CONCERN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE RAINFALL
WILL BE BENEFICIAL FOR DROUGHT RELIEF. THE MAIN CONCERN REMAINS
FOR POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED FLOODING IF THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY
MOVE OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS.
CLOUDS AND HUMIDITY WILL LINGER BEHIND UNTIL THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. UPR LEVEL RIDGE SETS UP
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH NW FLOW ACROSS PA BEGINNING MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. MODEL UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FOR MID WEEK ON TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE NEXT SYSTEMS. GENERALLY LOOKING AT A VIGOROUS LOW
PRESSURE CENTER MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO PA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING SPREADING MORE SHOWERS ACROSS THE STATE. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH WITH WEATHER CLEARING BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY BRINGING
COOLER NIGHTS AND DRIER WEATHER. BUT THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES
WITH THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHING SW PA WITH A WARM FRONT AND SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BROAD UPPER TROF AND 40KT 850 MB JET DRIVING AREA OF RAIN AND SCT
CONVECTION TO CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS MORNING. OVERALL AREA IS
SLOWLY DIMINISHING...BUT SCT SHRA/TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSS WITH
ACTIVITY SHIFTING TO THE NORTHERN MTNS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
MVFR/IFR CIGS SHOULD SETTLE IN OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS
OVER NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED MVFR FOG
RESTRICTIONS POSS OVER THE SE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING HOURS.
ISOLATED TSTMS POSS ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...BCMG VFR. ISO TSTMS POSS SOUTH.
SAT-SUN...CIG REDUCTIONS LIKELY WITH PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA.
LOCALLY +RA PSBL SAT NGT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
MON...MAINLY VFR. MVFR WEST WITH ISOLATED TSRA.
TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE TSRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...ROSS
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...WATSON
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1038 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HOT TEMPERATURES RETURNING AS
A STALLED FRONT REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION. BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK THE HOT PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN AS A TROUGH MOVES
SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ZCZC GSPWRKNRT 000
TTAA00 KCAE 202323
0200 UTC UPDATE...A LINE OF SHOWERS NORTH OF KCLT POPPED-UP IN THE
LAST HOUR...BUT QUICKLY DISPERSED...LEAVING THE CWA NEARLY SHOWER-
FREE. REMNANTS OF THESE SHOWERS...THEMSELVES RELATED TO THE OUTER
RAIN BANDS OF THE REMNANTS OF TS BILL...ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
PROGRESS SOUTH EASTWARD BEFORE COMPLETELY DISSIPATING. REST OF
UPDATES TO BLEND IN LATEST OBS FOR SKY AND TEMPERATURES.
AS OF 720 PM...MOST SHOWERS AND ALL LIGHTNING HAS LEFT THE AREA WITH
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS REMAINING...MOSTLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA. HRRR CONTINUES THE TREND OF DECLINING PRECIP SUNDAY
MORNING. UPDATED FORECAST TO CLEAR MOST PRECIPITATION AND UPDATE
WINDS AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS.
FOR THE OVERNIGHT...THE SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS
OF BILL WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY EARLY SUNDAY. LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE
CHANCES ON SUNDAY WILL BE LIMITED BY OVERALL WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND LOW
LEVEL CIN TO OVERCOME. HENCE...POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO ISOLATED IN
NATURE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WHERE CIN MAY BE OVERCOME WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING. WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW...TEMPS SHOULD HAVE NO
TROUBLE WARMING WELL INTO THE 90S EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH 80S
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...THE SHORT RANGE FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
SUNDAY EVENING AMIDST BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
THANKS TO STRENGTHENING UPPER ANTICYCLONE. THE SURFACE PATTERN
FEATURES AN ELONGATED/CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CONUS...WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT STRETCHES ALONG THE
OHIO VALLEY REGION NORTHWARD. CLOSER TO HOME...A TROF IN PLACE
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WILL WEAKEN INTO THE EVENING AS THE
PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
AFORE MENTIONED FRONT COULD STALL JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NAM ACTUALLY PROVIDING HINTS OF AN ONGOING
FRONTAL MCS MAKING A RUN AT THE NC MOUNTAINS. WITH UPPER HEIGHTS
BEING LOWEST AND ABUNDANT INSTABILITY BEING PRESENT ACROSS THESE
ZONES...CANNOT RULE OUT SUCH. EXPECTING ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY TO
STRUGGLE AS IT SLIDES DEEPER INTO THE SUBSIDENCE LAYER BY EARLY
MORNING MONDAY...IF IT SURVIVES A TRIP ACROSS THE MTNS IN THE FIRST
PLACE. POPS WILL INITIALIZE AT SLIGHT CHANCE LEVELS OVER THE BLUE
RIDGE BEFORE TAPERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING.
FROM THAT POINT ON GUIDANCE FAVORS INCREASED DEEP LAYER RIDGING
THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH ANY SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY BEING DIURNAL IN
NATURE. OVERALL THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON WHERE SLIGHT/CHANCE MTN AND FOOTHILL POPS ARE FAVORED.
SOUNDINGS ON TUESDAY GIVE MUCH SUPPORT TO THE RIDGE WITH MOST OF THE
AREA STRUGGLING TO BREAK ANY CAPPING THAT IS IN PLACE...THUS
TUESDAYS POPS FEATURE SLIGHT CHANCES OVER THE SW MTNS. WEAK FLOW
ALOFT WILL LIMIT SHEAR THUS EXPECTING ANY CONVECTION EITHER DAY TO
BE PULSE IN NATURE. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL
ALSO BE OF NOTE AS ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTH COMBINES WITH THE AFORE
MENTIONED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH TO YIELD INCREASINGLY HOT/HUMID
DAYS. HIGHS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH THE PIEDMONT APPROACHING/EXCEEDING THE CENTURY
MARK...POTENTIALLY BREAKING RECORDS. EXPECTING HEAT INDEX VALUES TO
APPROACH DANGEROUS LEVELS WITH HEAT ADVISORIES BEING A POSSIBILITY
EACH DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SAT...THE FLAT BUT STILL HOT UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES THRU MIDWEEK...WHILE FASTER FLOW CONTINUES
OVER THE RIDGE ACRS THE NERN CONUS. CONSENSUS OF THE LONG RANGE
MODELS IS THAT AS A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THAT FLOW WILL LAY OUT A
COLD FRONT ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY...WHICH STALLS TO OUR NORTH WED AS
THE WAVE PULLS AWAY. LATEST AVBL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
HOWEVER DOES SHOW HEIGHTS BEGINNING TO FALL OVER OUR AREA THU AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE PATTERN SUBSEQUENTLY BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED...AND THAT
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY ARRIVE THU NIGHT. SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
THEREAFTER BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS WE WILL SEE ACTIVE WX GOING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A PRONOUNCED TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND INTERACTS WITH THE EXISTING BOUNDARY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
FCST NEAR-RECORD MAXES WED AND THU...THOUGH THE FAVORED BLEND HAS
TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER FROM THE LAST CYCLE...SO A HWO MENTION STILL
IS UNWARRANTED. TEMPS WILL COOL A BIT FOR FRIDAY...BUT NOT RETURNING
TO NEAR NORMAL UNTIL SATURDAY.
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY OF THE PERIOD. GFS PROFILES HAD
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED POOR MIDLEVEL TEMPS WITHIN THE RIDGE WOULD KEEP
MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT CAPPED WED AND THU AFTNS...BUT THE LATEST RUN
SEEMS TO REFLECT A WEAKER RIDGE AND SUGGESTS FREE CONVECTION THERE.
WEAK SHEAR PROFILES AND MODEST INSTABILITY MEAN PULSE STORMS WILL
PROBABLY BE OF SOME CONCERN ON THESE DAYS. WEAK DOWNSLOPING WILL
LIKELY LIMIT THE COVERAGE HOWEVER. TO SUMMARIZE...ON WED-THU POPS
PEAK AT A HIGH CHC MTNS AND SCHC TO LOW CHC PIEDMONT. THE FRONT
WARRANTS POPS PERSISTING OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT WITH MOST OF THE CWFA
SOLIDLY IN CHC RANGE THRU EARLY SUNDAY ON ACCOUNT OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYNOPTIC FEATURES. SHEAR PARAMETERS WAX LATE IN THE
PERIOD BUT ARE NOT CURRENTLY INDICATIVE OF A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
THREAT.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ZCZC GSPWRKTAF 201802
TTAA00 KGSP DDHHMM
AT KCLT...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS ENDED FOR THE EVENING WITH REDUCED
CHANCES FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE
MOVEMENT OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL MOVING RAPIDLY
EASTWARD.
ELSEWHERE...ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE APPALACHIANS IN
NORTH CAROLINA...AND THESE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DECLINE WITH
THE HRRR HAVING NO ACTIVITY AFTER 3Z. FOG REMAINS IN THE FORECAST
FOR AVL AND HKY DUE TO MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND CLIMATIC TREND.
THUNDER SHOWER ACTIVITY IS AGAIN POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY...BUT PRIMARILY
OVER AND JUST DOWN WIND OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA.
OUTLOOK...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE DIURNAL AS ANOTHER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SETS UP LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO THE NEW WORK
WEEK. AS A RESULT...THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA
WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN NC WHERE THE LEAST SUBSIDENCE WILL RESIDE.
MORNING RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG AND/OR STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE...
PARTICULARLY WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL THE PREVIOUS DAY...AND IN MTN
VALLEYS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
02-08Z 08-14Z 14-20Z 20-00Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 83% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEK...WITH YEARS IN WHICH THE
VALUES WERE LAST REACHED.
MONDAY JUNE 22...
AVL 94 1964
CLT 98 1956
GSP 99 2006
TUESDAY JUNE 23...
AVL 93 1988
CLT 98 1988
GSP 99 1988
WEDNESDAY JUNE 24...
AVL 94 1952
CLT 102 1930
GSP 100 1952
THURSDAY JUNE 25...
AVL 96 1952
CLT 102 1914
GSP 101 1952
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...LG/WJM
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...WJM
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
750 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HOT TEMPERATURES RETURNING AS
A STALLED FRONT REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION. BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK THE HOT PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN AS A TROUGH MOVES
SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 720 PM...MOST SHOWERS AND ALL LIGHTNING HAS LEFT THE AREA WITH
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS REMAINING...MOSTLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA. HRRR CONTINUES THE TREND OF DECLINING PRECIP SUNDAY
MORNING. UPDATED FORECAST TO CLEAR MOST PRECIPITATION AND UPDATE
WINDS AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS.
2000 UTC UPDATE...ADJUSTED POPS/SKY/WINDS AND TEMPS FOR LATEST
OBSERVATIONS. BANDS OF PRECIPITATION ROTATING AROUND THE REMNANTS
OF TS BILL FAR TO THE NORTH ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING PRIMARILY THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH MORE SHOWERS
POSSIBLE LATER ELSEWHERE.
AS OF 215 PM...AS THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
TS BILL MOVE BY TO THE NORTH...ENOUGH FORCING WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND WESTERN CAROLINAS TO GENERATE CONSIDERABLE
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
IN BANDS...ONE TO THE WEST OF CLT AND THE OTHER FROM THE NC
MOUNTAINS...SW THROUGH WESTERN SC INTO GA. THESE FEATURES SHOULD
MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND AFFECT MOST
AREAS. HENCE...POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY MOST
AREAS. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS DESTABILIZED CONSIDERABLE ESPECIALLY
OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS WHERE SBCAPES IN THE 2000-3000J EXIST.
HOWEVER...THE AXIS OF BEST DCAPE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD TO THE
COAST. SHEAR IS INCREASING BUT THE 25KT OR BETTER BULK SHEAR REMAINS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE LOWER INSTABILITY EXISTS. HOWEVER WITH THE
HIGH CAPES...CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SEVERE STORMS.
FOR THE OVERNIGHT...THE SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS
OF BILL WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY EARLY SUNDAY. LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE
CHANCES ON SUNDAY WILL BE LIMITED BY OVERALL WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND LOW
LEVEL CIN TO OVERCOME. HENCE...POPS WILL LIMITED TO ISOLATED IN
NATURE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WHERE CIN MAY BE OVERCOME WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING. WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW...TEMPS SHOULD HAVE NO
TROUBLE WARMING WELL INTO THE 90S EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH 80S
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...THE SHORT RANGE FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
SUNDAY EVENING AMIDST BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
THANKS TO STRENGTHENING UPPER ANTICYCLONE. THE SURFACE PATTERN
FEATURES AN ELONGATED/CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CONUS...WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT STRETCHES ALONG THE
OHIO VALLEY REGION NORTHWARD. CLOSER TO HOME...A TROF IN PLACE
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WILL WEAKEN INTO THE EVENING AS THE
PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
AFORE MENTIONED FRONT COULD STALL JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NAM ACTUALLY PROVIDING HINTS OF AN ONGOING
FRONTAL MCS MAKING A RUN AT THE NC MOUNTAINS. WITH UPPER HEIGHTS
BEING LOWEST AND ABUNDANT INSTABILITY BEING PRESENT ACROSS THESE
ZONES...CANNOT RULE OUT SUCH. EXPECTING ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY TO
STRUGGLE AS IT SLIDES DEEPER INTO THE SUBSIDENCE LAYER BY EARLY
MORNING MONDAY...IF IT SURVIVES A TRIP ACROSS THE MTNS IN THE FIRST
PLACE. POPS WILL INITIALIZE AT SLIGHT CHANCE LEVELS OVER THE BLUE
RIDGE BEFORE TAPERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING.
FROM THAT POINT ON GUIDANCE FAVORS INCREASED DEEP LAYER RIDGING
THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH ANY SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY BEING DIURNAL IN
NATURE. OVERALL THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON WHERE SLIGHT/CHANCE MTN AND FOOTHILL POPS ARE FAVORED.
SOUNDINGS ON TUESDAY GIVE MUCH SUPPORT TO THE RIDGE WITH MOST OF THE
AREA STRUGGLING TO BREAK ANY CAPPING THAT IS IN PLACE...THUS
TUESDAYS POPS FEATURE SLIGHT CHANCES OVER THE SW MTNS. WEAK FLOW
ALOFT WILL LIMIT SHEAR THUS EXPECTING ANY CONVECTION EITHER DAY TO
BE PULSE IN NATURE. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL
ALSO BE OF NOTE AS ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTH COMBINES WITH THE AFORE
MENTIONED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH TO YIELD INCREASINGLY HOT/HUMID
DAYS. HIGHS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH THE PIEDMONT APPROACHING/EXCEEDING THE CENTURY
MARK...POTENTIALLY BREAKING RECORDS. EXPECTING HEAT INDEX VALUES TO
APPROACH DANGEROUS LEVELS WITH HEAT ADVISORIES BEING A POSSIBILITY
EACH DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SAT...THE FLAT BUT STILL HOT UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES THRU MIDWEEK...WHILE FASTER FLOW CONTINUES
OVER THE RIDGE ACRS THE NERN CONUS. CONSENSUS OF THE LONG RANGE
MODELS IS THAT AS A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THAT FLOW WILL LAY OUT A
COLD FRONT ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY...WHICH STALLS TO OUR NORTH WED AS
THE WAVE PULLS AWAY. LATEST AVBL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
HOWEVER DOES SHOW HEIGHTS BEGINNING TO FALL OVER OUR AREA THU AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE PATTERN SUBSEQUENTLY BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED...AND THAT
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY ARRIVE THU NIGHT. SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
THEREAFTER BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS WE WILL SEE ACTIVE WX GOING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A PRONOUNCED TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND INTERACTS WITH THE EXISTING BOUNDARY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
FCST NEAR-RECORD MAXES WED AND THU...THOUGH THE FAVORED BLEND HAS
TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER FROM THE LAST CYCLE...SO A HWO MENTION STILL
IS UNWARRANTED. TEMPS WILL COOL A BIT FOR FRIDAY...BUT NOT RETURNING
TO NEAR NORMAL UNTIL SATURDAY.
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY OF THE PERIOD. GFS PROFILES HAD
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED POOR MIDLEVEL TEMPS WITHIN THE RIDGE WOULD KEEP
MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT CAPPED WED AND THU AFTNS...BUT THE LATEST RUN
SEEMS TO REFLECT A WEAKER RIDGE AND SUGGESTS FREE CONVECTION THERE.
WEAK SHEAR PROFILES AND MODEST INSTABILITY MEAN PULSE STORMS WILL
PROBABLY BE OF SOME CONCERN ON THESE DAYS. WEAK DOWNSLOPING WILL
LIKELY LIMIT THE COVERAGE HOWEVER. TO SUMMARIZE...ON WED-THU POPS
PEAK AT A HIGH CHC MTNS AND SCHC TO LOW CHC PIEDMONT. THE FRONT
WARRANTS POPS PERSISTING OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT WITH MOST OF THE CWFA
SOLIDLY IN CHC RANGE THRU EARLY SUNDAY ON ACCOUNT OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYNOPTIC FEATURES. SHEAR PARAMETERS WAX LATE IN THE
PERIOD BUT ARE NOT CURRENTLY INDICATIVE OF A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
THREAT.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS ENDED FOR THE EVENING WITH REDUCED
CHANCES FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE
MOVEMENT OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL MOVING
RAPIDLY EASTWARD.
ELSEWHERE...ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE APPALACHIANS IN
NORTH CAROLINA...AND THESE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DECLINE WITH
THE HRRR HAVING NO ACTIVITY AFTER 3Z. FOG REMAINS IN THE FORECAST
FOR AVL AND HKY DUE TO MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND CLIMATIC TREND.
THUNDER SHOWER ACTIVITY IS AGAIN POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY...BUT PRIMARILY
OVER AND JUST DOWN WIND OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA.
OUTLOOK...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE DIURNAL AS ANOTHER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SETS UP LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO THE NEW WORK
WEEK. AS A RESULT...THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA
WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN NC WHERE THE LEAST SUBSIDENCE WILL RESIDE.
MORNING RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG AND/OR STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE...
PARTICULARLY WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL THE PREVIOUS DAY...AND IN MTN
VALLEYS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
23-05Z 05-11Z 11-17Z 17-18Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEK...WITH YEARS IN WHICH THE
VALUES WERE LAST REACHED.
MONDAY JUNE 22...
AVL 94 1964
CLT 98 1956
GSP 99 2006
TUESDAY JUNE 23...
AVL 93 1988
CLT 98 1988
GSP 99 1988
WEDNESDAY JUNE 24...
AVL 94 1952
CLT 102 1930
GSP 100 1952
THURSDAY JUNE 25...
AVL 96 1952
CLT 102 1914
GSP 101 1952
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...LG/WJM
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...WJM
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
725 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HOT TEMPERATURES RETURNING AS
A STALLED FRONT REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION. BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK THE HOT PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN AS A TROUGH MOVES
SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 720 PM...MOST SHOWERS AND ALL LIGHTNING HAS LEFT THE AREA WITH
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS REMAINING...MOSTLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA. HRRR CONTINUES THE TREND OF DECLINING PRECIP SUNDAY
MORNING. UPDATED FORECAST TO CLEAR MOST PRECIPITATION AND UPDATE
WINDS AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS.
2000 UTC UPDATE...ADJUSTED POPS/SKY/WINDS AND TEMPS FOR LATEST
OBSERVATIONS. BANDS OF PRECIPITATION ROTATING AROUND THE REMNANTS
OF TS BILL FAR TO THE NORTH ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING PRIMARILY THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH MORE SHOWERS
POSSIBLE LATER ELSEWHERE.
AS OF 215 PM...AS THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
TS BILL MOVE BY TO THE NORTH...ENOUGH FORCING WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND WESTERN CAROLINAS TO GENERATE CONSIDERABLE
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
IN BANDS...ONE TO THE WEST OF CLT AND THE OTHER FROM THE NC
MOUNTAINS...SW THROUGH WESTERN SC INTO GA. THESE FEATURES SHOULD
MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND AFFECT MOST
AREAS. HENCE...POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY MOST
AREAS. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS DESTABILIZED CONSIDERABLE ESPECIALLY
OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS WHERE SBCAPES IN THE 2000-3000J EXIST.
HOWEVER...THE AXIS OF BEST DCAPE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD TO THE
COAST. SHEAR IS INCREASING BUT THE 25KT OR BETTER BULK SHEAR REMAINS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE LOWER INSTABILITY EXISTS. HOWEVER WITH THE
HIGH CAPES...CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SEVERE STORMS.
FOR THE OVERNIGHT...THE SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS
OF BILL WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY EARLY SUNDAY. LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE
CHANCES ON SUNDAY WILL BE LIMITED BY OVERALL WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND LOW
LEVEL CIN TO OVERCOME. HENCE...POPS WILL LIMITED TO ISOLATED IN
NATURE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WHERE CIN MAY BE OVERCOME WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING. WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW...TEMPS SHOULD HAVE NO
TROUBLE WARMING WELL INTO THE 90S EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH 80S
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...THE SHORT RANGE FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
SUNDAY EVENING AMIDST BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
THANKS TO STRENGTHENING UPPER ANTICYCLONE. THE SURFACE PATTERN
FEATURES AN ELONGATED/CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CONUS...WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT STRETCHES ALONG THE
OHIO VALLEY REGION NORTHWARD. CLOSER TO HOME...A TROF IN PLACE
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WILL WEAKEN INTO THE EVENING AS THE
PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
AFORE MENTIONED FRONT COULD STALL JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NAM ACTUALLY PROVIDING HINTS OF AN ONGOING
FRONTAL MCS MAKING A RUN AT THE NC MOUNTAINS. WITH UPPER HEIGHTS
BEING LOWEST AND ABUNDANT INSTABILITY BEING PRESENT ACROSS THESE
ZONES...CANNOT RULE OUT SUCH. EXPECTING ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY TO
STRUGGLE AS IT SLIDES DEEPER INTO THE SUBSIDENCE LAYER BY EARLY
MORNING MONDAY...IF IT SURVIVES A TRIP ACROSS THE MTNS IN THE FIRST
PLACE. POPS WILL INITIALIZE AT SLIGHT CHANCE LEVELS OVER THE BLUE
RIDGE BEFORE TAPERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING.
FROM THAT POINT ON GUIDANCE FAVORS INCREASED DEEP LAYER RIDGING
THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH ANY SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY BEING DIURNAL IN
NATURE. OVERALL THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON WHERE SLIGHT/CHANCE MTN AND FOOTHILL POPS ARE FAVORED.
SOUNDINGS ON TUESDAY GIVE MUCH SUPPORT TO THE RIDGE WITH MOST OF THE
AREA STRUGGLING TO BREAK ANY CAPPING THAT IS IN PLACE...THUS
TUESDAYS POPS FEATURE SLIGHT CHANCES OVER THE SW MTNS. WEAK FLOW
ALOFT WILL LIMIT SHEAR THUS EXPECTING ANY CONVECTION EITHER DAY TO
BE PULSE IN NATURE. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL
ALSO BE OF NOTE AS ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTH COMBINES WITH THE AFORE
MENTIONED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH TO YIELD INCREASINGLY HOT/HUMID
DAYS. HIGHS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH THE PIEDMONT APPROACHING/EXCEEDING THE CENTURY
MARK...POTENTIALLY BREAKING RECORDS. EXPECTING HEAT INDEX VALUES TO
APPROACH DANGEROUS LEVELS WITH HEAT ADVISORIES BEING A POSSIBILITY
EACH DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SAT...THE FLAT BUT STILL HOT UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES THRU MIDWEEK...WHILE FASTER FLOW CONTINUES
OVER THE RIDGE ACRS THE NERN CONUS. CONSENSUS OF THE LONG RANGE
MODELS IS THAT AS A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THAT FLOW WILL LAY OUT A
COLD FRONT ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY...WHICH STALLS TO OUR NORTH WED AS
THE WAVE PULLS AWAY. LATEST AVBL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
HOWEVER DOES SHOW HEIGHTS BEGINNING TO FALL OVER OUR AREA THU AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE PATTERN SUBSEQUENTLY BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED...AND THAT
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY ARRIVE THU NIGHT. SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
THEREAFTER BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS WE WILL SEE ACTIVE WX GOING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A PRONOUNCED TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND INTERACTS WITH THE EXISTING BOUNDARY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
FCST NEAR-RECORD MAXES WED AND THU...THOUGH THE FAVORED BLEND HAS
TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER FROM THE LAST CYCLE...SO A HWO MENTION STILL
IS UNWARRANTED. TEMPS WILL COOL A BIT FOR FRIDAY...BUT NOT RETURNING
TO NEAR NORMAL UNTIL SATURDAY.
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY OF THE PERIOD. GFS PROFILES HAD
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED POOR MIDLEVEL TEMPS WITHIN THE RIDGE WOULD KEEP
MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT CAPPED WED AND THU AFTNS...BUT THE LATEST RUN
SEEMS TO REFLECT A WEAKER RIDGE AND SUGGESTS FREE CONVECTION THERE.
WEAK SHEAR PROFILES AND MODEST INSTABILITY MEAN PULSE STORMS WILL
PROBABLY BE OF SOME CONCERN ON THESE DAYS. WEAK DOWNSLOPING WILL
LIKELY LIMIT THE COVERAGE HOWEVER. TO SUMMARIZE...ON WED-THU POPS
PEAK AT A HIGH CHC MTNS AND SCHC TO LOW CHC PIEDMONT. THE FRONT
WARRANTS POPS PERSISTING OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT WITH MOST OF THE CWFA
SOLIDLY IN CHC RANGE THRU EARLY SUNDAY ON ACCOUNT OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYNOPTIC FEATURES. SHEAR PARAMETERS WAX LATE IN THE
PERIOD BUT ARE NOT CURRENTLY INDICATIVE OF A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
THREAT.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF CYCLE IS THE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. A BAND OF TSRA IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP JUST WEST OF THE
AIRFILED WITH ANOTHER IN WESTERN SC INTO GA. THEREFORE...EXPECT THAT
THE AIRFIELD MAY SEE A COUPLE ROUNDS OF TSRA IN THE 19Z-23Z
TIMEFRAME. HENCE HAVE A TEMPO WITH RESTRICTIONS. CONVECTIVE THREAT
SHOULD END AFTER 00Z AS A SFC TROUGH MOVES SE OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS.
ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN BANDS ACROSS THE AREA ONE WEST
OF CLT AND ANOTHER OVER WESTERN SC INTO GA. THESE FEATURES WILL MOVE
EASTWARD. THEREFORE...EXPECT ALL AIRFIELDS WILL EXPERIENCE A TSRA
PRIOR TO 00Z. WILL HAVE TEMPOS WITH RESTRICTIONS AT ALL TAF SITES.
CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL END AFTER 00Z AS A SFC TROUGH MOVES SE OF THE
AREA. AFTER 00Z EXPECT VFR GENERALLY CONDITIONS. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVLOPMENT AT AVL AND HKY EARLY SUNDAY.
UTLOOK...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE DIURNAL AS ANOTHER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SETS UP LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO THE NEW WORK
WEEK. AS A RESULT...THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA
WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN NC WHERE THE LEAST SUBSIDENCE WILL RESIDE.
MORNING RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG AND/OR STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE...
PARTICULARLY WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL THE PREVIOUS DAY...AND IN MTN
VALLEYS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
23-05Z 05-11Z 11-17Z 17-18Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEK...WITH YEARS IN WHICH THE
VALUES WERE LAST REACHED.
MONDAY JUNE 22...
AVL 94 1964
CLT 98 1956
GSP 99 2006
TUESDAY JUNE 23...
AVL 93 1988
CLT 98 1988
GSP 99 1988
WEDNESDAY JUNE 24...
AVL 94 1952
CLT 102 1930
GSP 100 1952
THURSDAY JUNE 25...
AVL 96 1952
CLT 102 1914
GSP 101 1952
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...LG/WJM
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...LG
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
203 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL SYSTEM BILL WILL MOVE UP THE
OHIO VALLEY TODAY...CROSS THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...THEN MOVE OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRUSH WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA MAINLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL STEADILY BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HOT TEMPERATURES RETURNING AS
A STATIONARY FRONT STAYS NORTH OF THE REGION. THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL START TO BREAK DOWN TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 1225 PM...RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF SHOWERS/TSRA FROM THE NORTHERN NC
MOUNTAINS SW INTO NE GA. THIS BAND SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON. SOME WIDELY SCT SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN UNSTABLE
AIRMASS OVER THE PIEDMONT AS SBCAPES IN THE 2000J PLUS THERE. BUMPED
POPS UPWARD ACROSS NE GA AND UPSTATE SC IN DEFERENCE TO CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS. LATEST DCAPE FROM SPC MESO ANAL SHOWS THE AXIS OF
1000J PLUS NOW WELL EAST OF THE AREA WITH ABOUT 800J NEAR CLT.
HENCE...GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STILL SEEMS TO BE OVER EASTERN
AREAS WITH THE BEST OVERLAP OF CAPE/DCAPE MAXES.
AT 10 AM...REGIONAL RADARS SHOW AN AREA OF SHOWERS OVER FAR WESTERN
NC WHICH WAS MOVING EAST. LATEST HRRR BRINGS ANOTHER BAND OF
SHRA/TSRA INTO THE MOUNTAINS FROM TN CIRCA 18Z AND MOVES THIS
EASTWARD THROUGH 00Z. THE HRRR ALSO GENERATES SOME WIDELY SCT TSRA
OVER UPSTATE SC. 12Z NAM IS FAVORING WESTERN NC AS WELL WITH
GREATEST QPF RESPONSE...SO WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY/CAT POPS THROUGH THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON... TRENDING DOWNWARD TO WIDELY SCT TYPE
POPS LOWER PIEDMONT. ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS UPWARD EASTERN AREAS WHERE
THE MOST INSOLATION WILL OCCUR. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT PERHAPS
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE OVER EASTERN AREAS
WHERE CAPES IN EXCESS OF 2000J/KG WILL OVERLAP WITH DCAPES AROUND
1000J.
630 AM EDT UPDATE...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE GOING GRIDS WITH TEMPS
AND TD/S REMAINING FAIRLY STEADY STEADY STATE. CLOUDS AND POPS WERE
ADJ UP ACROSS THE SW NC MTNS WHERE THE FIRST WAVES OF MOISTURE ARE
COMING IN FROM EXTROP STORM BILL AND PRODUCING MODERATE SHOWERS.
THE REMNANTS OF TS BILL WILL MOVE NE ACROSS WRN KY TODAY WITH THE
BEST DYNAMICAL QG FORCING MAINTAINED NW OF THE CWFA. THERE WILL BE
SOME LOW END H7/H5 DCVA CROSSING THE WRN ZONES AS THE UPPER S/W TROF
AXIS APPROACHES THE APPS. EVEN WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKING DOWN
THERE WILL MAINLY BE A SUPRESSIVE ATMOS IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE
FA DUE TO MLVL WAA AND MOISTURE ADV. DROPPED SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE
WRN ZONES SHOW MLVL THETA/E INCREASING AND SATURATED PROFILES AFT
18Z ABOVE H7...WHILE THE SE/RN AREAS REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY ABOVE THE
LFC. THUS...SBCAPE VALUES WILL VARY SIGFNTLY AND ACTUALLY DECREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS THE NC MTN AND FTHILL ZONES...WITH SOME
MEASURE OF DECREASE OVER THE UPSTATE AND NE GA AS WELL.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR DEEP CONVECTION THEREFORE WILL BE ACROSS THE
I-77 CORRIDOOR AND ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOOR. BULK SHEAR
WILL INCREASE AS THE EXTROP SYSTEM NEARS AND THE BEST OVERLAP WITH
INSTABILITY WILL GENRALLY BE OVER THE I-77 CORRIDOOR. DIFFERNTIAL
HEATING ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT AND ERN FTHILLS SHOULD ALLOW STRONG
MULTICELL CLUSTER STORMS TO DEVELOP AS WELL WITH THE MAIN THREAT
BEING DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS. HODOS REMAIN TOO STRAIGHT FOR
MUCH OF A TOR THREAT...BUT AN ISOL WEAK TOR IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
INCREASING SHEAR AND HORIZONTAL VORTICITY. LLVL LAPSE RATES AND DRY
SUB CLOUD LAYER AIR OUTSIDE THE MTNS ALSO SUPPORT A WIND THREAT AND
GUSTY CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
TRICKY DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF MOIST ADV...BUT BELIEVE WITH THE
LOWERING THICKNESSES MAXES WILL BE A CAT OR SO LOWER THAN FRI/S
HIGHS OVER MOST LOCALES.
LINGERING LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL TRAVERSE THE CWFA OVERNIGHT
AS THE BASE OF THE TROF AXIS SLOWLY LIFTS NE. CHANCE POPS WILL BE
LIMITED TO NC MTNS AND NRN FTHILLS IN MOIST WLY FLOW THROUGH 06Z OR
SO AND DIMINISH THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH LOSS OF FORCING. MINS WILL BE
A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN THE LATEST TRENDS YET STILL A CAT ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SATURDAY...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM BILL
WILL DEPART THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY. EXPECT A WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPING FLOW ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM. THIS
WILL LEAD TO SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE APPALACHIANS...WITH PIEDMONT
TROUGHING SETTING UP SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW LEVELS WILL HEAT UP
AGAIN VERY QUICKLY...WITH STEEP 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 7 TO
7.5 DEG C/KM EACH DAY GETTING ESTABLISHED. HOWEVER... MODEL PROFILES
VARY WIDELY ON SB CAPE VALUES EACH AFTERNOON DUE TO VARIATIONS IN
THE MID LEVEL TEMPS AND DEGREE OF CAPPING. WILL PLAN ON A LITTLE
LESS CAPPING EACH DAY...AND SLOWLY IMPROVING DIURNAL POPS AS A
SERIES OF WEAK UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA. ANY
CONVECTION THAT GETS GOING COULD BE QUITE STRONG WITH ANTICIPATED
TOTAL TOTALS WELL INTO THE 50S. EXPECT TEMPS ABOUT TWO CATEGORIES
ABOVE CLIMO ON SUNDAY TO SURGE TO SOME 10 TO 14 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO
BY TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SATURDAY...A FLAT RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTH
WED THROUGH FRI. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE WILL STALL OUT
ALONG THE NC/VA LINE TUE NIGHT INTO WED...BUT THEN LIFT BACK
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH THU. FLOW WILL BE GENERALLY
WESTERLY DURING THIS PERIOD WHICH WILL ENHANCE WARMING BUT COULD
ALSO LEAD TO SOME DOWNSLOPE MIXING/DRYING OF DEWPOINTS EACH
AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE PLENTY OF UPPER 90S TO 100S TEMPS EACH
AFTERNOON...SO EVEN IF DEWPOINTS MIX TOWARD THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S...SE PIEDMONT HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD APPROACH 105...ESPECIALLY
ON WED. AN HWO MENTION COULD BE NEEDED. DESPITE THE WEAK CAPPING
ALOFT...WILL FEATURE FAIRLY SOLID CHC POPS IN THE MTNS AND ISOLD
POPS EAST CLOSER TO THE LEE TROUGH EACH AFTN/EVENING. ANY TSTMS THAT
DEVELOP COULD BE QUITE ROBUST GIVEN THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND
CONTINUED STEEP TOTAL TOTALS IN MODEL PROFILES.
HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE NW ON FRI...WITH AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT AS WELL. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH
FOR ADDITIONAL MID TO UPPER 90S MAXES IN THE SE HALF...BUT THE HEAT
WAVE SHOULD START COMING TO AN END WITH THE PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD AN
EASTERN TROUGH HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WILL FEATURE CONTINUED
DIURNAL CHANCE POPS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF CYCLE IS THE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. A BAND OF TSRA IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP JUST WEST OF THE
AIRFILED WITH ANOTHER IN WESTERN SC INTO GA. THEREFORE...EXPECT THAT
THE AIRFIELD MAY SEE A COUPLE ROUNDS OF TSRA IN THE 19Z-23Z
TIMEFRAME. HENCE HAVE A TEMPO WITH RESTRICTIONS. CONVECTIVE THREAT
SHOULD END AFTER 00Z AS A SFC TROUGH MOVES SE OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS.
ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN BANDS ACROSS THE AREA ONE WEST
OF CLT AND ANOTHER OVER WESTERN SC INTO GA. THESE FEATURES WILL MOVE
EASTWARD. THEREFORE...EXPECT ALL AIRFIELDS WILL EXPERIENCE A TSRA
PRIOR TO 00Z. WILL HAVE TEMPOS WITH RESTRICTIONS AT ALL TAF SITES.
CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL END AFTER 00Z AS A SFC TROUGH MOVES SE OF THE
AREA. AFTER 00Z EXPECT VFR GENERALLY CONDITIONS. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVLOPMENT AT AVL AND HKY EARLY SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE DIURNAL AS ANOTHER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SETS UP LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO THE NEW WORK
WEEK. AS A RESULT...THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA
WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN NC WHERE THE LEAST SUBSIDENCE WILL RESIDE.
MORNING RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG AND/OR STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE...
PARTICULARLY WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL THE PREVIOUS DAY...AND IN MTN
VALLEYS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
18-24Z 00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z
KCLT HIGH 94% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 94% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 88% HIGH 100% HIGH 88% HIGH 97%
KHKY HIGH 94% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 88% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 88% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY JUNE 23RD...
AVL 93 1988
CLT 98 1988
GSP 99 1988
RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY JUNE 24TH...
AVL 94 1952
CLT 102 1930
GSP 100 1952
RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY JUNE 25TH...
AVL 96 1952
CLT 102 1914
GSP 101 1952
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...LG
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1233 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL SYSTEM BILL WILL MOVE UP THE
OHIO VALLEY TODAY...CROSS THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...THEN MOVE OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRUSH WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA MAINLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL STEADILY BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HOT TEMPERATURES RETURNING AS
A STATIONARY FRONT STAYS NORTH OF THE REGION. THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL START TO BREAK DOWN TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 1225 PM...RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF SHOWERS/TSRA FROM THE NORTHERN NC
MOUNTAINS SW INTO NE GA. THIS BAND SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON. SOME WIDELY SCT SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN UNSTABLE
AIRMASS OVER THE PIEDMONT AS SBCAPES IN THE 2000J PLUS THERE. BUMPED
POPS UPWARD ACROSS NE GA AND UPSTATE SC IN DEFERENCE TO CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS. LATEST DCAPE FROM SPC MESO ANAL SHOWS THE AXIS OF
1000J PLUS NOW WELL EAST OF THE AREA WITH ABOUT 800J NEAR CLT.
HENCE...GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STILL SEEMS TO BE OVER EASTERN
AREAS WITH THE BEST OVERLAP OF CAPE/DCAPE MAXES.
AT 10 AM...REGIONAL RADARS SHOW AN AREA OF SHOWERS OVER FAR WESTERN
NC WHICH WAS MOVING EAST. LATEST HRRR BRINGS ANOTHER BAND OF
SHRA/TSRA INTO THE MOUNTAINS FROM TN CIRCA 18Z AND MOVES THIS
EASTWARD THROUGH 00Z. THE HRRR ALSO GENERATES SOME WIDELY SCT TSRA
OVER UPSTATE SC. 12Z NAM IS FAVORING WESTERN NC AS WELL WITH
GREATEST QPF RESPONSE...SO WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY/CAT POPS THROUGH THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON... TRENDING DOWNWARD TO WIDELY SCT TYPE
POPS LOWER PIEDMONT. ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS UPWARD EASTERN AREAS WHERE
THE MOST INSOLATION WILL OCCUR. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT PERHAPS
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE OVER EASTERN AREAS
WHERE CAPES IN EXCESS OF 2000J/KG WILL OVERLAP WITH DCAPES AROUND
1000J.
630 AM EDT UPDATE...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE GOING GRIDS WITH TEMPS
AND TD/S REMAINING FAIRLY STEADY STEADY STATE. CLOUDS AND POPS WERE
ADJ UP ACROSS THE SW NC MTNS WHERE THE FIRST WAVES OF MOISTURE ARE
COMING IN FROM EXTROP STORM BILL AND PRODUCING MODERATE SHOWERS.
THE REMNANTS OF TS BILL WILL MOVE NE ACROSS WRN KY TODAY WITH THE
BEST DYNAMICAL QG FORCING MAINTAINED NW OF THE CWFA. THERE WILL BE
SOME LOW END H7/H5 DCVA CROSSING THE WRN ZONES AS THE UPPER S/W TROF
AXIS APPROACHES THE APPS. EVEN WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKING DOWN
THERE WILL MAINLY BE A SUPRESSIVE ATMOS IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE
FA DUE TO MLVL WAA AND MOISTURE ADV. DROPPED SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE
WRN ZONES SHOW MLVL THETA/E INCREASING AND SATURATED PROFILES AFT
18Z ABOVE H7...WHILE THE SE/RN AREAS REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY ABOVE THE
LFC. THUS...SBCAPE VALUES WILL VARY SIGFNTLY AND ACTUALLY DECREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS THE NC MTN AND FTHILL ZONES...WITH SOME
MEASURE OF DECREASE OVER THE UPSTATE AND NE GA AS WELL.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR DEEP CONVECTION THEREFORE WILL BE ACROSS THE
I-77 CORRIDOOR AND ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOOR. BULK SHEAR
WILL INCREASE AS THE EXTROP SYSTEM NEARS AND THE BEST OVERLAP WITH
INSTABILITY WILL GENRALLY BE OVER THE I-77 CORRIDOOR. DIFFERNTIAL
HEATING ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT AND ERN FTHILLS SHOULD ALLOW STRONG
MULTICELL CLUSTER STORMS TO DEVELOP AS WELL WITH THE MAIN THREAT
BEING DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS. HODOS REMAIN TOO STRAIGHT FOR
MUCH OF A TOR THREAT...BUT AN ISOL WEAK TOR IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
INCREASING SHEAR AND HORIZONTAL VORTICITY. LLVL LAPSE RATES AND DRY
SUB CLOUD LAYER AIR OUTSIDE THE MTNS ALSO SUPPORT A WIND THREAT AND
GUSTY CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
TRICKY DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF MOIST ADV...BUT BELIEVE WITH THE
LOWERING THICKNESSES MAXES WILL BE A CAT OR SO LOWER THAN FRI/S
HIGHS OVER MOST LOCALES.
LINGERING LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL TRAVERSE THE CWFA OVERNIGHT
AS THE BASE OF THE TROF AXIS SLOWLY LIFTS NE. CHANCE POPS WILL BE
LIMITED TO NC MTNS AND NRN FTHILLS IN MOIST WLY FLOW THROUGH 06Z OR
SO AND DIMINISH THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH LOSS OF FORCING. MINS WILL BE
A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN THE LATEST TRENDS YET STILL A CAT ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SATURDAY...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM BILL
WILL DEPART THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY. EXPECT A WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPING FLOW ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM. THIS
WILL LEAD TO SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE APPALACHIANS...WITH PIEDMONT
TROUGHING SETTING UP SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW LEVELS WILL HEAT UP
AGAIN VERY QUICKLY...WITH STEEP 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 7 TO
7.5 DEG C/KM EACH DAY GETTING ESTABLISHED. HOWEVER... MODEL PROFILES
VARY WIDELY ON SB CAPE VALUES EACH AFTERNOON DUE TO VARIATIONS IN
THE MID LEVEL TEMPS AND DEGREE OF CAPPING. WILL PLAN ON A LITTLE
LESS CAPPING EACH DAY...AND SLOWLY IMPROVING DIURNAL POPS AS A
SERIES OF WEAK UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA. ANY
CONVECTION THAT GETS GOING COULD BE QUITE STRONG WITH ANTICIPATED
TOTAL TOTALS WELL INTO THE 50S. EXPECT TEMPS ABOUT TWO CATEGORIES
ABOVE CLIMO ON SUNDAY TO SURGE TO SOME 10 TO 14 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO
BY TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SATURDAY...A FLAT RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTH
WED THROUGH FRI. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE WILL STALL OUT
ALONG THE NC/VA LINE TUE NIGHT INTO WED...BUT THEN LIFT BACK
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH THU. FLOW WILL BE GENERALLY
WESTERLY DURING THIS PERIOD WHICH WILL ENHANCE WARMING BUT COULD
ALSO LEAD TO SOME DOWNSLOPE MIXING/DRYING OF DEWPOINTS EACH
AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE PLENTY OF UPPER 90S TO 100S TEMPS EACH
AFTERNOON...SO EVEN IF DEWPOINTS MIX TOWARD THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S...SE PIEDMONT HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD APPROACH 105...ESPECIALLY
ON WED. AN HWO MENTION COULD BE NEEDED. DESPITE THE WEAK CAPPING
ALOFT...WILL FEATURE FAIRLY SOLID CHC POPS IN THE MTNS AND ISOLD
POPS EAST CLOSER TO THE LEE TROUGH EACH AFTN/EVENING. ANY TSTMS THAT
DEVELOP COULD BE QUITE ROBUST GIVEN THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND
CONTINUED STEEP TOTAL TOTALS IN MODEL PROFILES.
HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE NW ON FRI...WITH AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT AS WELL. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH
FOR ADDITIONAL MID TO UPPER 90S MAXES IN THE SE HALF...BUT THE HEAT
WAVE SHOULD START COMING TO AN END WITH THE PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD AN
EASTERN TROUGH HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WILL FEATURE CONTINUED
DIURNAL CHANCE POPS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...AREA OBS INDICATE VSBYS LOWERING INTO THE MVFR RANGE NORTH
OF THE AIRFIELD WHERE PREVIOUS PRECIP WAS THE GREATEST YESTERDAY.
DOESN/T LOOK LIKE THE AIRFIELD WILL BE AFFECTED WITH TDD/S REMAINING
AT 6 DEGREES F. STRONG AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN
PLAY AND A PROB30 TS WILL COVER THE SCT POTENTIAL THRU 00Z. WINDS WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE SW AND BECOME MODERATELY GUSTY AS THE PGRAD
TIGHTENS WITHIN GOOD MIXING. NO SIGFNT ISSUES OVERNIGHT AS UPPER
TROF PULLS NE AND MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN...PERHAPS SOME LATE
MORNING MVFR VSBY.
ELSEWHERE...LOW CIGS AND VSBY AT KAVL AND KHKY WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE
THROUGH 13Z/14Z AS WINDS ARE INFLUENCED BY EXTROP STORM BILL. NC
SITES WILL BE UNDER A PROB30 TS THIS AFTERNOON WITH WITH VCTS AT
THE SC SITES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH INSTABILITY. THE PGRAD TIGHTENS
THROUGH THE DAY AND GOOD MIXING INTO LOW THETA/E WILL ALLOW FOR
MODERATE SW/LY GUSTINESS AT ALL SITES THROUGH 00Z. KAVL SHOULD SEE
LOWER END GUSTS DUE TO TERRAIN BLOCKAGE OF THE MEAN FLOW. MTN
VALLEYS FG EARLY MORNING IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO PERSISTENT SFC
FLOW...SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF KAVL TAF FOR NOW.
OUTLOOK...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DIURNAL AS
ANOTHER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SETS UP LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO THE NEW
WORK WEEK. AS A RESULT...THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN NC WHERE THE LEAST SUBSIDENCE WILL
RESIDE. MORNING RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG AND/OR STRATUS ARE
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL THE PREVIOUS DAY...AND
IN MTN VALLEYS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
16-22Z 22-04Z 04-10Z 10-12Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 74%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY JUNE 23RD...
AVL 93 1988
CLT 98 1988
GSP 99 1988
RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY JUNE 24TH...
AVL 94 1952
CLT 102 1930
GSP 100 1952
RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY JUNE 25TH...
AVL 96 1952
CLT 102 1914
GSP 101 1952
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...SBK
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1024 AM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL SYSTEM BILL WILL MOVE UP THE
OHIO VALLEY TODAY...CROSS THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...THEN MOVE OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRUSH WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA MAINLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL STEADILY BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HOT TEMPERATURES RETURNING AS
A STATIONARY FRONT STAYS NORTH OF THE REGION. THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL START TO BREAK DOWN TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 10 AM...REGIONAL RADARS SHOW AN AREA OF SHOWERS OVER FAR WESTERN
NC WHICH WAS MOVING EAST. LATEST HRRR BRINGS ANOTHER BAND OF
SHRA/TSRA INTO THE MOUNTAINS FROM TN CIRCA 18Z AND MOVES THIS
EASTWARD THROUGH 00Z. THE HRRR ALSO GENERATES SOME WIDELY SCT TSRA
OVER UPSTATE SC. 12Z NAM IS FAVORING WESTERN NC AS WELL WITH
GREATEST QPF RESPONSE...SO WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY/CAT POPS THROUGH THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON... TRENDING DOWNWARD TO WIDELY SCT TYPE
POPS LOWER PIEDMONT. ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS UPWARD EASTERN AREAS WHERE
THE MOST INSOLATION WILL OCCUR. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
PERHAPS THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE OVER EASTERN
AREAS WHERE CAPES IN EXCESS OF 2000J/KG WILL OVERLAP WITH DCAPES
AROUND 1000J.
630 AM EDT UPDATE...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE GOING GRIDS WITH TEMPS
AND TD/S REMAINING FAIRLY STEADY STEADY STATE. CLOUDS AND POPS WERE
ADJ UP ACROSS THE SW NC MTNS WHERE THE FIRST WAVES OF MOISTURE ARE
COMING IN FROM EXTROP STORM BILL AND PRODUCING MODERATE SHOWERS.
THE REMNANTS OF TS BILL WILL MOVE NE ACROSS WRN KY TODAY WITH THE
BEST DYNAMICAL QG FORCING MAINTAINED NW OF THE CWFA. THERE WILL BE
SOME LOW END H7/H5 DCVA CROSSING THE WRN ZONES AS THE UPPER S/W TROF
AXIS APPROACHES THE APPS. EVEN WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKING DOWN
THERE WILL MAINLY BE A SUPRESSIVE ATMOS IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE
FA DUE TO MLVL WAA AND MOISTURE ADV. DROPPED SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE
WRN ZONES SHOW MLVL THETA/E INCREASING AND SATURATED PROFILES AFT
18Z ABOVE H7...WHILE THE SE/RN AREAS REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY ABOVE THE
LFC. THUS...SBCAPE VALUES WILL VARY SIGFNTLY AND ACTUALLY DECREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS THE NC MTN AND FTHILL ZONES...WITH SOME
MEASURE OF DECREASE OVER THE UPSTATE AND NE GA AS WELL.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR DEEP CONVECTION THEREFORE WILL BE ACROSS THE
I-77 CORRIDOOR AND ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOOR. BULK SHEAR
WILL INCREASE AS THE EXTROP SYSTEM NEARS AND THE BEST OVERLAP WITH
INSTABILITY WILL GENRALLY BE OVER THE I-77 CORRIDOOR. DIFFERNTIAL
HEATING ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT AND ERN FTHILLS SHOULD ALLOW STRONG
MULTICELL CLUSTER STORMS TO DEVELOP AS WELL WITH THE MAIN THREAT
BEING DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS. HODOS REMAIN TOO STRAIGHT FOR
MUCH OF A TOR THREAT...BUT AN ISOL WEAK TOR IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
INCREASING SHEAR AND HORIZONTAL VORTICITY. LLVL LAPSE RATES AND DRY
SUB CLOUD LAYER AIR OUTSIDE THE MTNS ALSO SUPPORT A WIND THREAT AND
GUSTY CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
TRICKY DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF MOIST ADV...BUT BELIEVE WITH THE
LOWERING THICKNESSES MAXES WILL BE A CAT OR SO LOWER THAN FRI/S
HIGHS OVER MOST LOCALES.
LINGERING LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL TRAVERSE THE CWFA OVERNIGHT
AS THE BASE OF THE TROF AXIS SLOWLY LIFTS NE. CHANCE POPS WILL BE
LIMITED TO NC MTNS AND NRN FTHILLS IN MOIST WLY FLOW THROUGH 06Z OR
SO AND DIMINISH THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH LOSS OF FORCING. MINS WILL BE
A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN THE LATEST TRENDS YET STILL A CAT ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SATURDAY...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM BILL
WILL DEPART THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY. EXPECT A WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPING FLOW ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM. THIS
WILL LEAD TO SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE APPALACHIANS...WITH PIEDMONT
TROUGHING SETTING UP SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW LEVELS WILL HEAT UP
AGAIN VERY QUICKLY...WITH STEEP 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 7 TO
7.5 DEG C/KM EACH DAY GETTING ESTABLISHED. HOWEVER... MODEL PROFILES
VARY WIDELY ON SB CAPE VALUES EACH AFTERNOON DUE TO VARIATIONS IN
THE MID LEVEL TEMPS AND DEGREE OF CAPPING. WILL PLAN ON A LITTLE
LESS CAPPING EACH DAY...AND SLOWLY IMPROVING DIURNAL POPS AS A
SERIES OF WEAK UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA. ANY
CONVECTION THAT GETS GOING COULD BE QUITE STRONG WITH ANTICIPATED
TOTAL TOTALS WELL INTO THE 50S. EXPECT TEMPS ABOUT TWO CATEGORIES
ABOVE CLIMO ON SUNDAY TO SURGE TO SOME 10 TO 14 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO
BY TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SATURDAY...A FLAT RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTH
WED THROUGH FRI. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE WILL STALL OUT
ALONG THE NC/VA LINE TUE NIGHT INTO WED...BUT THEN LIFT BACK
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH THU. FLOW WILL BE GENERALLY
WESTERLY DURING THIS PERIOD WHICH WILL ENHANCE WARMING BUT COULD
ALSO LEAD TO SOME DOWNSLOPE MIXING/DRYING OF DEWPOINTS EACH
AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE PLENTY OF UPPER 90S TO 100S TEMPS EACH
AFTERNOON...SO EVEN IF DEWPOINTS MIX TOWARD THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S...SE PIEDMONT HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD APPROACH 105...ESPECIALLY
ON WED. AN HWO MENTION COULD BE NEEDED. DESPITE THE WEAK CAPPING
ALOFT...WILL FEATURE FAIRLY SOLID CHC POPS IN THE MTNS AND ISOLD
POPS EAST CLOSER TO THE LEE TROUGH EACH AFTN/EVENING. ANY TSTMS THAT
DEVELOP COULD BE QUITE ROBUST GIVEN THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND
CONTINUED STEEP TOTAL TOTALS IN MODEL PROFILES.
HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE NW ON FRI...WITH AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT AS WELL. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH
FOR ADDITIONAL MID TO UPPER 90S MAXES IN THE SE HALF...BUT THE HEAT
WAVE SHOULD START COMING TO AN END WITH THE PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD AN
EASTERN TROUGH HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WILL FEATURE CONTINUED
DIURNAL CHANCE POPS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...AREA OBS INDICATE VSBYS LOWERING INTO THE MVFR RANGE NORTH
OF THE AIRFIELD WHERE PREVIOUS PRECIP WAS THE GREATEST YESTERDAY.
DOESN/T LOOK LIKE THE AIRFIELD WILL BE AFFECTED WITH TDD/S REMAINING
AT 6 DEGREES F. STRONG AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN
PLAY AND A PROB30 TS WILL COVER THE SCT POTENTIAL THRU 00Z. WINDS WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE SW AND BECOME MODERATELY GUSTY AS THE PGRAD
TIGHTENS WITHIN GOOD MIXING. NO SIGFNT ISSUES OVERNIGHT AS UPPER
TROF PULLS NE AND MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN...PERHAPS SOME LATE
MORNING MVFR VSBY.
ELSEWHERE...LOW CIGS AND VSBY AT KAVL AND KHKY WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE
THROUGH 13Z/14Z AS WINDS ARE INFLUENCED BY EXTROP STORM BILL. NC
SITES WILL BE UNDER A PROB30 TS THIS AFTERNOON WITH WITH VCTS AT
THE SC SITES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH INSTABILITY. THE PGRAD TIGHTENS
THROUGH THE DAY AND GOOD MIXING INTO LOW THETA/E WILL ALLOW FOR
MODERATE SW/LY GUSTINESS AT ALL SITES THROUGH 00Z. KAVL SHOULD SEE
LOWER END GUSTS DUE TO TERRAIN BLOCKAGE OF THE MEAN FLOW. MTN
VALLEYS FG EARLY MORNING IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO PERSISTENT SFC
FLOW...SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF KAVL TAF FOR NOW.
OUTLOOK...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DIURNAL AS
ANOTHER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SETS UP LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO THE NEW
WORK WEEK. AS A RESULT...THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN NC WHERE THE LEAST SUBSIDENCE WILL
RESIDE. MORNING RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG AND/OR STRATUS ARE
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL THE PREVIOUS DAY...AND
IN MTN VALLEYS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
14-20Z 20-02Z 02-08Z 08-12Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 85%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY JUNE 23RD...
AVL 93 1988
CLT 98 1988
GSP 99 1988
RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY JUNE 24TH...
AVL 94 1952
CLT 102 1930
GSP 100 1952
RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY JUNE 25TH...
AVL 96 1952
CLT 102 1914
GSP 101 1952
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...SBK
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1215 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
MCS FROM OVERNIGHT HOURS HAS GREATLY DISSIPATED FROM EARLIER
OVERNIGHT STATUS. REPEATED ATTEMPTS FOR CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO PUSH TO THE EAST OF THE JAMES VALLEY HAS MET WITH A STRONG
WEAKENING OR DISSIPATION WITH THE MUCH MORE STABLE CONDITIONS.
HRRR/RAP MODELS HAVE NOT DONE WELL IN SUGGESTING THIS DISSIPATION...
AND CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH OVERPREDICTION OF CONVECTIVE THREAT
IN THE IMMEDIATE TERM. WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME SCATTERED TO LIKELY
LEVEL POPS IN THE NORTH FOR A COUPLE HOURS...BUT GRADUALLY SHOULD
SEE THREAT DIMINISH TO BARE MINIMUM ALONG MID LEVEL BOUNDARY IN
THE FAR NORTH. OTHERWISE...LARGE STRATUS FIELD ACROSS
CENTRAL/WESTERN NEBRASKA CONTINUES TO TAUNT THE FAR WESTERN CWA.
SHOULD CONTINUE TO UNDERGO DISSIPATION AS IT ADVECTS NORTH TO
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT MAY HOLD CLOUDS IN FOR A
LONGER PERIOD...AND EVEN WITH DISSIPATION...LONG ENOUGH TO IMPACT
POTENTIAL HIGHS WEST OF THE JAMES...AND HAVE TRIMMED BACK HIGHS A
BIT FOR BOTH THIS AREA...AND THOSE LOCATIONS NEAR THE MORE
LINGERING PRECIPITATION THREAT INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE THE
SEVERE CONVECTIVE THREAT TONIGHT. STRONG WAVE MOVING THROUGH
IDAHO WILL BE THE TRIGGER THIS EVENING FOR DEVELOPMENT OF MORE
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA/NORTHWEST
SOUTH DAKOTA...WHICH WILL PLOW TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
0-3KM SHEAR HAS COME IN A BIT STRONGER IN THE PRE COMPLEX
ENVIRONMENT...AND LIKELY TO GET SOME ML/ELEVATED CAPE UP TO 1500
J/KG. EVOLUTION TO A LARGER SCALE BOW ECHO WOULD SEEM VERY
PLAUSIBLE...PRIMARILY WITH A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS 70 TO
80 MPH. SOME LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL WILL EXIST ACROSS THE WEST AND
SOUTHERN FLANKS WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. RAPID MOVEMENT OF
SYSTEM ONCE EVOLVED WITH LIKELY LIMIT THE PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS...BUT RATES WILL LIKELY BE QUITE HIGH FOR A BRIEF TIME...
WHICH WOULD INTRODUCE THREAT FOR MORE URBANIZED AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS TO EXPERIENCE SOME WATER ISSUES AS SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR TODAY. STRONG MCS CURRENTLY WORKING INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE AS OF 08Z....AND IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE 13-14 Z TIME
FRAME. WHAT IS INTERESTING...IS THAT THE AIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA
IS COMPLETELY STABLE...BUT OFTEN TIMES...STRONG...WELL ESTABLISHED
MCS CAN OUTRUN THE INSTABILITY. HRRR HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH
THIS...AND RAP IS NOW BEGINNING TO TREND IN THIS DIRECTION AS WELL.
HAVE BEGUN TO TREND UPWARDS WITH POPS IN NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA IN
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...BUT TRAIL POPS OFF TO THE EAST AS COMPLEX IS
EXPECTED TO FALL APART AS IT WORKS DEEPER INTO THE STABLE AIR.
RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER WILL REDUCE HEATING POTENTIAL FOR TODAY...AND
HAVE CUT BACK HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA...WITH GREATEST
ADJUSTMENTS IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES THIS EVENING AS 35-45 KNOT LOW LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WHILE STILL CAN/T RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED STORM THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...IT DOES APPEAR THAT
THE CAP WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
MID LEVEL WAVE TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL INITIALLY TO ISOLATED AT
BEST.
MUCH BETTER FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN REACHES
OF THE STATE IN THE EVENING HOURS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. BASED ON
SHEAR AND STORM MOTION...EXPECTING STORMS TO ORGANIZE INTO A MATURE
MCS AND WORK INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA 05-07Z.
EXPECT STORMS TO BE ELEVATED...BUT WITH RELATIVELY DRY LAYER FROM
750 UP TO 300 MB...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG ORGANIZED MCS TO CREATE
DAMAGING WINDS. 0-3 KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS NEAR 30-35 KNOTS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA....INDICATING DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90. AS STORMS WORK EAST OF I-29 AFTER
9Z...SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS DECREASE AND AM EXPECTING THE
OVERALL INTENSITY TO DECREASE. WITH THAT SAID...STILL KEPT POPS IN
THE CATEGORICAL RANGE ACROSS THE NORTH CLOSEST TO THE MID LEVEL
WAVE...WITH LESSER CHANCES TO THE SOUTH ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-90 AS
ONE GETS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE MID LEVEL WAVE AND THE UPPER JET.
HAVE ADDED MENTION OF CHANCE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS TO
WEATHER GRIDS...BUT WAS LESS CONFIDENT EAST OF I-29 AND DECREASED TO
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WHERE SEVERE PARAMETERS
AND SPC OUTLOOK DECREASE.
HAVE COOLED LOWS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE CONVECTION SEEMS
LIKELY...AND LEFT TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF I-90 QUITE MILD IN THE UPPER
60S WHERE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES ARE. WITH 0-2 KM VGP AND 0-3 KM
EHI SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS...WILL KEEP MENTION OF LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN THE HWO. HAVE ALSO MENTIONED IN THE GRIDS...WITH
LESSER CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE EAST OF I-29.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
ON SATURDAY...THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SHOULD BE RAPIDLY EXITING OUR
EASTERN ZONES IN THE MORNING. FURTHERMORE...THE WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FAIRLY EARLY IN THE DAY WHICH SHOULD BUILD STORMS AWAY FROM OUR
LOCATION IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH GOOD MIXING POTENTIAL AND SOME DRY
AIR ADVECTION...HIGHS STILL LOOK WARM WITH WIDESPREAD 80S. CURRENTLY
HAVE 89 AT SIOUX CITY BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THEY HIT 90 OR
THE LOWER 90S IF THE MID AND UPPER CLOUD COVER EXITS QUICKLY ENOUGH
BY MIDDAY. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES SATURDAY NIGHT...HELPING TO GIVE
LIGHT WINDS AND WHAT SHOULD BE A DRY NIGHT. THEN ON SUNDAY...THE
VARIOUS MODELS INCLUDING THE GFS...ECMWF AND NAM SHOW A WEAK SHORT
WAVE IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF
I 29 AND NORTH OF I 90 IN OUR SOUTH DAKOTA ZONES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IS A BIT LACKING AFTER THE WIND SHIFT ON SATURDAY...BUT PLENTY OF
MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXISTS WITH SOME DECENT LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 700
AND 500MB. THEREFORE CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREA WITH LESS CHANCES ELSEWHERE.
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...SUNDAYS MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WEAKENS IN OUR
EASTERN ZONES AS IT MOVES EASTWARD...REPLACED BY A STRONG SHORT
WAVE RAPIDLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND THE
NORTHERN HALF OF MINNESOTA. MOST OF THE DYNAMICS REMAINS NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA...SO THEREFORE ONLY CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR IN OUR
NORTHERN ZONES. LOWS STILL LOOK MILD...ABOUT 60 TO 65 DEGREES WITH
THE WINDS CHANGING TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE PASSAGE LATE
AT NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW IN THE EXTENDED IN TERMS OF WHEN AND WHERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE. IN GENERAL...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
SHOWING AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
UNITED STATES WITH A BRISK QUASI ZONAL FLOW THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN
HALF. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN SHOULD GIVE MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S BASED ON THE
LATEST 850MB TEMPERATURES OFF OF THE LATEST ECMWF AND GFS. LOWS ARE
PRIMARILY IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S...BUT IF WE GET LIGHT WINDS
COUPLED WITH CLEAR SKIES...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF LOWS ERROR
ON THE COOL SIDE OF SUPERBLEND LOWS HERE AND THERE. DUE TO THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS WITH SPECIFIC SHORT WAVE
TIMING MOVING ACROSS THE FAST UPPER FLOW...PIN POINTING RAIN CHANCES
IS REAL PROBLEMATIC. AT THIS TIME...THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A
WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS WHERE THERE IS SOME
AGREEMENT IS IN NORTHWEST IOWA AND EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS LOOK LIKE
THEY DEVELOP A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED SHORT WAVE...THEREFORE THE SHORT
WAVE IN THAT AREA MAY BE A RESPONSE TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. VERY
DIFFICULT TO TELL THIS FAR OUT. THERE IS AN 850MB BOUNDARY CLOSE TO
NORTHWEST IOWA...AT LEAST EXTENDING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
NORTHWEST IA. SO ITS WORTH WATCHING BUT HIGH POPS ARE NOT WARRANTED
YET AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...BUT AT THIS TIME THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE DOES NOT LOOK TO HAVE A LOT OF SHOWER OR STORM ACTIVITY WITH
IT. ONE THING OF INTEREST IS THE LONGER RANGE STILL SHOWS THE UPPER
RIDGE MIGRATING AND BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES BEYOND
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THAT WOULD PUT THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN A SHORT
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
MAIN CONCERN WITH CONVECTIVE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE
KHON AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT...KFSD A COUPLE HOURS LATER...AND
CLIPPING PAST KSUX. VERY STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE
STORMS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR KHON AREA FOR GUSTS OF 60 TO 65 KTS.
LIKELY TO FIND BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS...
BUT WILL LIKELY LIMIT MENTION OVER A COUPLE HOURS TO MVFR AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CHAPMAN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...CHAPMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
600 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR TODAY. STRONG MCS CURRENTLY WORKING INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE AS OF 08Z....AND IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE 13-14 Z TIME
FRAME. WHAT IS INTERESTING...IS THAT THE AIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA
IS COMPLETELY STABLE...BUT OFTEN TIMES...STRONG...WELL ESTABLISHED
MCS CAN OUTRUN THE INSTABILITY. HRRR HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH
THIS...AND RAP IS NOW BEGINNING TO TREND IN THIS DIRECTION AS WELL.
HAVE BEGUN TO TREND UPWARDS WITH POPS IN NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA IN
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...BUT TRAIL POPS OFF TO THE EAST AS COMPLEX IS
EXPECTED TO FALL APART AS IT WORKS DEEPER INTO THE STABLE AIR.
RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER WILL REDUCE HEATING POTENTIAL FOR TODAY...AND
HAVE CUT BACK HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA...WITH GREATEST
ADJUSTMENTS IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES THIS EVENING AS 35-45 KNOT LOW LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WHILE STILL CAN/T RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED STORM THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...IT DOES APPEAR THAT
THE CAP WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
MID LEVEL WAVE TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL INITIALLY TO ISOLATED AT
BEST.
MUCH BETTER FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN REACHES
OF THE STATE IN THE EVENING HOURS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. BASED ON
SHEAR AND STORM MOTION...EXPECTING STORMS TO ORGANIZE INTO A MATURE
MCS AND WORK INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA 05-07Z.
EXPECT STORMS TO BE ELEVATED...BUT WITH RELATIVELY DRY LAYER FROM
750 UP TO 300 MB...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG ORGANIZED MCS TO CREATE
DAMAGING WINDS. 0-3 KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS NEAR 30-35 KNOTS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA....INDICATING DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90. AS STORMS WORK EAST OF I-29 AFTER
9Z...SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS DECREASE AND AM EXPECTING THE
OVERALL INTENSITY TO DECREASE. WITH THAT SAID...STILL KEPT POPS IN
THE CATEGORICAL RANGE ACROSS THE NORTH CLOSEST TO THE MID LEVEL
WAVE...WITH LESSER CHANCES TO THE SOUTH ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-90 AS
ONE GETS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE MID LEVEL WAVE AND THE UPPER JET.
HAVE ADDED MENTION OF CHANCE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS TO
WEATHER GRIDS...BUT WAS LESS CONFIDENT EAST OF I-29 AND DECREASED TO
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WHERE SEVERE PARAMETERS
AND SPC OUTLOOK DECREASE.
HAVE COOLED LOWS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE CONVECTION SEEMS
LIKELY...AND LEFT TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF I-90 QUITE MILD IN THE UPPER
60S WHERE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES ARE. WITH 0-2 KM VGP AND 0-3 KM
EHI SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS...WILL KEEP MENTION OF LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN THE HWO. HAVE ALSO MENTIONED IN THE GRIDS...WITH
LESSER CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE EAST OF I-29.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
ON SATURDAY...THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SHOULD BE RAPIDLY EXITING OUR
EASTERN ZONES IN THE MORNING. FURTHERMORE...THE WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FAIRLY EARLY IN THE DAY WHICH SHOULD BUILD STORMS AWAY FROM OUR
LOCATION IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH GOOD MIXING POTENTIAL AND SOME DRY
AIR ADVECTION...HIGHS STILL LOOK WARM WITH WIDESPREAD 80S. CURRENTLY
HAVE 89 AT SIOUX CITY BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THEY HIT 90 OR
THE LOWER 90S IF THE MID AND UPPER CLOUD COVER EXITS QUICKLY ENOUGH
BY MIDDAY. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES SATURDAY NIGHT...HELPING TO GIVE
LIGHT WINDS AND WHAT SHOULD BE A DRY NIGHT. THEN ON SUNDAY...THE
VARIOUS MODELS INCLUDING THE GFS...ECMWF AND NAM SHOW A WEAK SHORT
WAVE IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF
I 29 AND NORTH OF I 90 IN OUR SOUTH DAKOTA ZONES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IS A BIT LACKING AFTER THE WIND SHIFT ON SATURDAY...BUT PLENTY OF
MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXISTS WITH SOME DECENT LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 700
AND 500MB. THEREFORE CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREA WITH LESS CHANCES ELSEWHERE.
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...SUNDAYS MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WEAKENS IN OUR
EATERN ZONES AS IT MOVES EASTWARD...REPLACED BY A STRONG SHORT WAVE
RAPIDLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND THE NORTHERN
HALF OF MINNESOTA. MOST OF THE DYNAMICS REMAINS NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...SO THEREFORE ONLY CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES.
LOWS STILL LOOK MILD...ABOUT 60 TO 65 DEGREES WITH THE WINDS
CHANGING TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE PASSAGE LATE AT NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW IN THE EXTENDED IN TERMS OF WHEN AND WHERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE. IN GENERAL...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
SHOWING AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
UNITED STATES WITH A BRISK QUASI ZONAL FLOW THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN
HALF. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN SHOULD GIVE MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S BASED ON THE
LATEST 850MB TEMPERATURES OFF OF THE LATEST ECMWF AND GFS. LOWS ARE
PRIMARILY IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S...BUT IF WE GET LIGHT WINDS
COUPLED WITH CLEAR SKIES...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF LOWS ERROR
ON THE COOL SIDE OF SUPERBLEND LOWS HERE AND THERE. DUE TO THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS WITH SPECIFIC SHORT WAVE
TIMING MOVING ACROSS THE FAST UPPER FLOW...PIN POINTING RAIN CHANCES
IS REAL PROBLEMATIC. AT THIS TIME...THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A
WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS WHERE THERE IS SOME
AGREEMENT IS IN NORTHWEST IOWA AND EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS LOOK LIKE
THEY DEVELOP A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED SHORT WAVE...THEREFORE THE SHORT
WAVE IN THAT AREA MAY BE A RESPONSE TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. VERY
DIFFICULT TO TELL THIS FAR OUT. THERE IS AN 850MB BOUNDARY CLOSE TO
NORTHWEST IOWA...AT LEAST EXTENDING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
NORTHWEST IA. SO ITS WORTH WATCHING BUT HIGH POPS ARE NOT WARRANTED
YET AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...BUT AT THIS TIME THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE DOES NOT LOOK TO HAVE A LOT OF SHOWER OR STORM ACTIVITY WITH
IT. ONE THING OF INTEREST IS THE LONGER RANGE STILL SHOWS THE UPPER
RIDGE MIGRATING AND BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES BEYOND
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THAT WOULD PUT THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN A SHORT
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 552 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
COMPLEX OF WEAKENING STORMS MOVING FROM CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WILL
AFFECT HURON AND AREAS NORTH OF I-90 THIS MORNING. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR. BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WILL DEVELOP
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. AN MCS IS EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE THIS EVENING...MOVING EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AROUND MIDNIGHT. HAVE NOT ADDED WIND
POTENTIAL TO THE HURON TAF...BUT MAY NEED TO DO THAT IN FUTURE 18
OR 00Z ISSUANCE. CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH
IS LESS...AND THEREFORE HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT FOR NOW.
HOWEVER...STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND HAVE ADDED MENTION OF LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO SIOUX CITY AND SIOUX FALLS. MAY NEED TO ADD
CONVECTION TO TAF AS WELL FOR SIOUX FALLS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE MENTION. BEST CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION IN SIOUX FALLS WILL BE IN THE 08-11Z TIME FRAME.
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
348 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR TODAY. STRONG MCS CURRENTLY WORKING INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE AS OF 08Z....AND IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE 13-14 Z TIME
FRAME. WHAT IS INTERESTING...IS THAT THE AIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA
IS COMPLETELY STABLE...BUT OFTEN TIMES...STRONG...WELL ESTABLISHED
MCS CAN OUTRUN THE INSTABILITY. HRRR HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH
THIS...AND RAP IS NOW BEGINNING TO TREND IN THIS DIRECTION AS WELL.
HAVE BEGUN TO TREND UPWARDS WITH POPS IN NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA IN
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...BUT TRAIL POPS OFF TO THE EAST AS COMPLEX IS
EXPECTED TO FALL APART AS IT WORKS DEEPER INTO THE STABLE AIR.
RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER WILL REDUCE HEATING POTENTIAL FOR TODAY...AND
HAVE CUT BACK HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA...WITH GREATEST
ADJUSTMENTS IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES THIS EVENING AS 35-45 KNOT LOW LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WHILE STILL CAN/T RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED STORM THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...IT DOES APPEAR THAT
THE CAP WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
MID LEVEL WAVE TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL INITIALLY TO ISOLATED AT
BEST.
MUCH BETTER FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN REACHES
OF THE STATE IN THE EVENING HOURS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. BASED ON
SHEAR AND STORM MOTION...EXPECTING STORMS TO ORGANIZE INTO A MATURE
MCS AND WORK INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA 05-07Z.
EXPECT STORMS TO BE ELEVATED...BUT WITH RELATIVELY DRY LAYER FROM
750 UP TO 300 MB...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG ORGANIZED MCS TO CREATE
DAMAGING WINDS. 0-3 KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS NEAR 30-35 KNOTS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA....INDICATING DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90. AS STORMS WORK EAST OF I-29 AFTER
9Z...SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS DECREASE AND AM EXPECTING THE
OVERALL INTENSITY TO DECREASE. WITH THAT SAID...STILL KEPT POPS IN
THE CATEGORICAL RANGE ACROSS THE NORTH CLOSEST TO THE MID LEVEL
WAVE...WITH LESSER CHANCES TO THE SOUTH ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-90 AS
ONE GETS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE MID LEVEL WAVE AND THE UPPER JET.
HAVE ADDED MENTION OF CHANCE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS TO
WEATHER GRIDS...BUT WAS LESS CONFIDENT EAST OF I-29 AND DECREASED TO
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WHERE SEVERE PARAMETERS
AND SPC OUTLOOK DECREASE.
HAVE COOLED LOWS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE CONVECTION SEEMS
LIKELY...AND LEFT TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF I-90 QUITE MILD IN THE UPPER
60S WHERE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES ARE. WITH 0-2 KM VGP AND 0-3 KM
EHI SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS...WILL KEEP MENTION OF LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN THE HWO. HAVE ALSO MENTIONED IN THE GRIDS...WITH
LESSER CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE EAST OF I-29.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
ON SATURDAY...THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SHOULD BE RAPIDLY EXITING OUR
EASTERN ZONES IN THE MORNING. FURTHERMORE...THE WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FAIRLY EARLY IN THE DAY WHICH SHOULD BUILD STORMS AWAY FROM OUR
LOCATION IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH GOOD MIXING POTENTIAL AND SOME DRY
AIR ADVECTION...HIGHS STILL LOOK WARM WITH WIDESPREAD 80S. CURRENTLY
HAVE 89 AT SIOUX CITY BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THEY HIT 90 OR
THE LOWER 90S IF THE MID AND UPPER CLOUD COVER EXITS QUICKLY ENOUGH
BY MIDDAY. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES SATURDAY NIGHT...HELPING TO GIVE
LIGHT WINDS AND WHAT SHOULD BE A DRY NIGHT. THEN ON SUNDAY...THE
VARIOUS MODELS INCLUDING THE GFS...ECMWF AND NAM SHOW A WEAK SHORT
WAVE IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF
I 29 AND NORTH OF I 90 IN OUR SOUTH DAKOTA ZONES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IS A BIT LACKING AFTER THE WIND SHIFT ON SATURDAY...BUT PLENTY OF
MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXISTS WITH SOME DECENT LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 700
AND 500MB. THEREFORE CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREA WITH LESS CHANCES ELSEWHERE.
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...SUNDAYS MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WEAKENS IN OUR
EATERN ZONES AS IT MOVES EASTWARD...REPLACED BY A STRONG SHORT WAVE
RAPIDLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND THE NORTHERN
HALF OF MINNESOTA. MOST OF THE DYNAMICS REMAINS NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...SO THEREFORE ONLY CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES.
LOWS STILL LOOK MILD...ABOUT 60 TO 65 DEGREES WITH THE WINDS
CHANGING TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE PASSAGE LATE AT NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW IN THE EXTENDED IN TERMS OF WHEN AND WHERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE. IN GENERAL...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
SHOWING AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
UNITED STATES WITH A BRISK QUASI ZONAL FLOW THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN
HALF. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN SHOULD GIVE MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S BASED ON THE
LATEST 850MB TEMPERATURES OFF OF THE LATEST ECMWF AND GFS. LOWS ARE
PRIMARILY IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S...BUT IF WE GET LIGHT WINDS
COUPLED WITH CLEAR SKIES...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF LOWS ERROR
ON THE COOL SIDE OF SUPERBLEND LOWS HERE AND THERE. DUE TO THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS WITH SPECIFIC SHORT WAVE
TIMING MOVING ACROSS THE FAST UPPER FLOW...PIN POINTING RAIN CHANCES
IS REAL PROBLEMATIC. AT THIS TIME...THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A
WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS WHERE THERE IS SOME
AGREEMENT IS IN NORTHWEST IOWA AND EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS LOOK LIKE
THEY DEVELOP A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED SHORT WAVE...THEREFORE THE SHORT
WAVE IN THAT AREA MAY BE A RESPONSE TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. VERY
DIFFICULT TO TELL THIS FAR OUT. THERE IS AN 850MB BOUNDARY CLOSE TO
NORTHWEST IOWA...AT LEAST EXTENDING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
NORTHWEST IA. SO ITS WORTH WATCHING BUT HIGH POPS ARE NOT WARRANTED
YET AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...BUT AT THIS TIME THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE DOES NOT LOOK TO HAVE A LOT OF SHOWER OR STORM ACTIVITY WITH
IT. ONE THING OF INTEREST IS THE LONGER RANGE STILL SHOWS THE UPPER
RIDGE MIGRATING AND BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES BEYOND
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THAT WOULD PUT THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN A SHORT
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1027 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MCS
ACTIVITY SLOW TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM...AND EVEN IF IT DOES...IT WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH MID-SOUTH DAKOTA BY DAYBREAK. ONLY EXPECTING A
BIT OF AN INCREASE IN MID-LVL CLOUDS INTO THE MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL
FRIDAY...WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. WHILE JUST
AT THE EDGE OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD...WATCH OUT FOR STRONG
CONVECTION AROUND 06Z SATURDAY.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...DUX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
905 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS/00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PRESENT OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WHILE A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM /MCS/ HAS DEVELOPED
OVER SOUTHEAST IOWA/NORTHEAST MISSOURI. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAVE DIMINISHED WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND THE ONLY REMNANTS IS AN
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER OVER SOUTHERN HAYWOOD AND MADISON COUNTIES
IN TENNESSEE. LATEST HRRR AND 00Z WRF INDICATE ANY ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN MINIMAL AT BEST. WILL
MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST
TRENDS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST OVERALL IS IN GREAT SHAPE.
UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
CJC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015/
UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015/
DISCUSSION...
HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL DOMINATE THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
CURRENTLY...DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POPPING UP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THUS FAR
TODAY. CURRENT HEAT INDEX READING IN MEMPHIS IS AROUND 101-102
DEGREES.
THE DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OFF AROUND 7 PM. CIRRUS
CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS WILL SPREAD OVER THE CWA THIS SHOULD KEEP
LOW TEMPERATURES UP COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. READINGS WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BE WARMER ON SUNDAY THUS HEAT INDICES COULD
REACH 105 DEGREES IN A FEW LOCATIONS. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BECOME
NECESSARY. THE HEAT WILL BUILD DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE WAVERING ON
HOW STRONG THE RIDGE WILL BE THUS ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION
COULD OCCUR ON ABOUT EACH DAY BUT NOT ENOUGH AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS
TO PUT ANY MENTION IN FORECAST YET. BY WEDNESDAY...BETTER
AGREEMENT OCCURS THUS HAVE ADDED IN MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
HEAT INDICES SHOULD HIT AROUND 105 DEGREES EACH DAY.
BY THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN TO NORMAL DURING THIS TIME PERIOD DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND CONVECTION.
KRM
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
S-SW BETWEEN 5-10 KT.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1231 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1104 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015/
UPDATE...
REMNANTS OF BILL REMAIN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING. OUTER
CLOUD BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH BILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE BUT THESE SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE DAY
GOES ON.
MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF CLOUDS ALSO STRETCHES FROM CHARLESTON
MISSISSIPPI TO AMORY MISSISSIPPI. HRRR SHOWS SOME POP UP
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THIS AREA OF CLOUDS.
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE 20 POP.
OTHERWISE...THE BUILDING HEAT WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY TO GET INTO THE LOWER 90S.
UPDATE TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.
KRM
DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015/
IT WILL BE BACK TO THE SUMMER HEAT TODAY WILL LITTLE IF ANY RAIN
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL PUSHES AWAY
FROM THE MIDSOUTH. EXCESSIVE HEAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP SUNDAY
INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...BUT THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WILL BE
RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED THIS TIME AROUND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND SOMEWHAT
COOLER TEMPERATURES SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
NEXT WEEKEND.
EARLY THIS MORNING...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL WAS CENTERED ALONG THE
IN / KY BORDER AND WAS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH...ONLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WERE NOTED IN THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH MS. CLOUDS WERE CLEARING FROM THE WEST.
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF BILL ARE FORECAST TO PUSH HOT AIR
INTO THE REGION TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
LOWER 90S EXCEPT UPPER 80S TOWARD PARIS TN. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
READINGS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB TO BETWEEN 100 AND 103 DEGREES FROM
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL AR INTO SOUTHWEST TN AROUND
MEMPHIS...AND MUCH OF NORTH MS. LINGERING CLOUDS MAINLY ALONG THE
TN RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS MORNING LEAVING
MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. MODELS INDICATE
THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND LINGERING MOISTURE TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH MS...INDICATED A 20 PERCENT POP FOR THIS AREA TODAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
SUNDAY WITH A SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW PUSHING EVEN HOTTER AIR
INTO THE AREA. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX READINGS MAY REACH 105 DEGREES
ESPECIALLY FROM EAST CENTRAL AR INTO NORTHWEST MS WHERE A HEAT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER FORECASTS. WILL NEED TO SEE HOW
MUCH IF ANY AFTERNOON DEW POINTS MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON TO GET A
BETTER HANDLE ON WHERE THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED SUNDAY IF
ANYWHERE. ANY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LESS
THAN MENTIONABLE LEVELS.
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A VERY HOT DAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S. HEAT INDEX
READINGS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB TO NEAR OR ABOVE 105 DEGREES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE HOT AND MOSTLY RAIN FREE WEATHER IS SEEN
INTO THURSDAY. SMALL CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION LEADING TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WORK WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS
DIFFER ON HOW THIS WILL EVOLVE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION.
JCL
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM COULD POP UP INVOF KTUP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE S-SW
BETWEEN 10-15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.
SJM
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1104 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
.UPDATE...
REMNANTS OF BILL REMAIN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING. OUTER
CLOUD BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH BILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE BUT THESE SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE DAY
GOES ON.
MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF CLOUDS ALSO STRETCHES FROM CHARLESTON
MISSISSIPPI TO AMORY MISSISSIPPI. HRRR SHOWS SOME POP UP
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THIS AREA OF CLOUDS.
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE 20 POP.
OTHERWISE...THE BUILDING HEAT WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY TO GET INTO THE LOWER 90S.
UPDATE TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.
KRM
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015/
IT WILL BE BACK TO THE SUMMER HEAT TODAY WILL LITTLE IF ANY RAIN
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL PUSHES AWAY
FROM THE MIDSOUTH. EXCESSIVE HEAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP SUNDAY
INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...BUT THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WILL BE
RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED THIS TIME AROUND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND SOMEWHAT
COOLER TEMPERATURES SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
NEXT WEEKEND.
EARLY THIS MORNING...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL WAS CENTERED ALONG THE
IN / KY BORDER AND WAS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH...ONLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WERE NOTED IN THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH MS. CLOUDS WERE CLEARING FROM THE WEST.
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF BILL ARE FORECAST TO PUSH HOT AIR
INTO THE REGION TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
LOWER 90S EXCEPT UPPER 80S TOWARD PARIS TN. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
READINGS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB TO BETWEEN 100 AND 103 DEGREES FROM
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL AR INTO SOUTHWEST TN AROUND
MEMPHIS...AND MUCH OF NORTH MS. LINGERING CLOUDS MAINLY ALONG THE
TN RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS MORNING LEAVING
MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. MODELS INDICATE
THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND LINGERING MOISTURE TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH MS...INDICATED A 20 PERCENT POP FOR THIS AREA TODAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
SUNDAY WITH A SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW PUSHING EVEN HOTTER AIR
INTO THE AREA. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX READINGS MAY REACH 105 DEGREES
ESPECIALLY FROM EAST CENTRAL AR INTO NORTHWEST MS WHERE A HEAT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER FORECASTS. WILL NEED TO SEE HOW
MUCH IF ANY AFTERNOON DEW POINTS MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON TO GET A
BETTER HANDLE ON WHERE THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED SUNDAY IF
ANYWHERE. ANY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LESS
THAN MENTIONABLE LEVELS.
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A VERY HOT DAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S. HEAT INDEX
READINGS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB TO NEAR OR ABOVE 105 DEGREES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE HOT AND MOSTLY RAIN FREE WEATHER IS SEEN
INTO THURSDAY. SMALL CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION LEADING TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WORK WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS
DIFFER ON HOW THIS WILL EVOLVE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION.
JCL
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD
IMPACT TUP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN TAF AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY BETWEEN
10-15 MPH TODAY.
TVT
&&
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1123 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 855 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015/
DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES THIS
EVENING CENTER THE REMNANTS OF BILL JUST NORTHEAST OF METROPOLIS
ILLINOIS. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE REMNANTS ARE
PRODUCING BANDS OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE MID SOUTH WITH THE BEST COVERAGE AS OF 8 PM CDT OVER NORTH
MISSISSIPPI.
LATEST HRRR AND THE 00Z WRF MODELS INDICATE BILL WILL MOVE EAST
OVERNIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWER
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING PREDOMINANTLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE
TENNESSEE RIVER. WILL UPDATE POPS AND ALL OTHER ELEMENTS AS NEEDED
TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.
UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
CJC
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015/
UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015/
DISCUSSION...
REMNANTS OF BILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE
CENTER WHICH IS NOW LOCATED NEAR POPLAR BLUFF. WINDS HAVE BEEN
GUSTY WITH SPEEDS NEAR 30 MPH AT TIMES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE NOT
BEEN AS HIGH AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT THUS WILL GO AHEAD AND CANCEL
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. THERE WILL STILL BE THE CHANCE FOR
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IF THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN FOR A PERIOD OF
TIME OVER A PARTICULAR LOCATION BUT THAT COULD OCCUR ANYWHERE IN
THE CWA. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
WITHIN SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH WEST TENNESSEE AND
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
THE CENTER OF BILL WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT. BY SATURDAY MORNING...LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY ONLY REMAIN ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE
RIVER AND POSSIBLY NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
ONCE BILL DEPARTS...ALL ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE HEAT AS AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BY THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO MID TO UPPER
90S. THE COMBINATION OF THE HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY
WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDICES 105 DEGREES OR GREATER POSSIBLY AS EARLY
AS SUNDAY. THESE CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. ISOLATED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO OCCUR.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK...MODELS ARE SHOWING THE RIDGE BREAKING
DOWN ALLOWING FOR A FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA. BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR IF THIS HAPPENS BUT SOMETIMES
THE RIDGE ENDS UP HANGING ON LONGER. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE.
KRM
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAF CYCLE
RAIN/TS HAS ENDED AT MKL...JBR AND MEM. TUP WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR
VIS DUE TO RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT HOUR OF SO.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDS OVERNIGHT WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS AT KMKL
AND KTUP TOWARD MORNING. VFR CONDS RETURN AREAWIDE SATURDAY
MORNING AS THE REMNANTS OF BILL DEPART. WINDS WILL BE STRONG
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS AT
KMEM...KJBR AND KMKL. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND SUNRISE...MOST LIKELY NEAR MKL AND TUP
RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS...BUT SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID MORNING. NO
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TOMORROW. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
855 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES THIS
EVENING CENTER THE REMNANTS OF BILL JUST NORTHEAST OF METROPOLIS
ILLINOIS. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE REMNANTS ARE
PRODUCING BANDS OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE MID SOUTH WITH THE BEST COVERAGE AS OF 8 PM CDT OVER NORTH
MISSISSIPPI.
LATEST HRRR AND THE 00Z WRF MODELS INDICATE BILL WILL MOVE EAST
OVERNIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWER
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING PREDOMINANTLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE
TENNESSEE RIVER. WILL UPDATE POPS AND ALL OTHER ELEMENTS AS NEEDED
TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.
UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
CJC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015/
UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015/
DISCUSSION...
REMNANTS OF BILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE
CENTER WHICH IS NOW LOCATED NEAR POPLAR BLUFF. WINDS HAVE BEEN
GUSTY WITH SPEEDS NEAR 30 MPH AT TIMES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE NOT
BEEN AS HIGH AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT THUS WILL GO AHEAD AND CANCEL
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. THERE WILL STILL BE THE CHANCE FOR
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IF THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN FOR A PERIOD OF
TIME OVER A PARTICULAR LOCATION BUT THAT COULD OCCUR ANYWHERE IN
THE CWA. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
WITHIN SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH WEST TENNESSEE AND
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
THE CENTER OF BILL WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT. BY SATURDAY MORNING...LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY ONLY REMAIN ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE
RIVER AND POSSIBLY NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
ONCE BILL DEPARTS...ALL ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE HEAT AS AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BY THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO MID TO UPPER
90S. THE COMBINATION OF THE HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY
WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDICES 105 DEGREES OR GREATER POSSIBLY AS EARLY
AS SUNDAY. THESE CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. ISOLATED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO OCCUR.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK...MODELS ARE SHOWING THE RIDGE BREAKING
DOWN ALLOWING FOR A FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA. BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR IF THIS HAPPENS BUT SOMETIMES
THE RIDGE ENDS UP HANGING ON LONGER. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE.
KRM
&&
.AVIATION...00Z TAF CYCLE
REMNANTS OF BILL TRACKING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. NUMEROUS SHRAS AND
SCATTERED TSRAS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDS WITH MVFR...ISOLD IFR...CONDS IN
THE BANDS OF SHRAS/TSRAS. PRECIPITATION WILL START TO TAPER OFF
THIS EVENING. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDS OVERNIGHT WITH SOME LOW
CLOUDS POSSIBLE AT KMKL AND KTUP TOWARD MORNING. VFR CONDS RETURN
AREAWIDE SATURDAY MORNING AS THE REMNANTS OF BILL DEPART. WINDS
WILL BE STRONG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 KTS AT KMEM...KJBR AND KMKL. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND SUNRISE...MOST
LIKELY NEAR MKL AND TUP RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS...BUT SHOULD MIX OUT
BY MID MORNING.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1253 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015/
UPDATE...
REMNANTS OF BILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT NORTHEAST ARKANSAS THIS
MORNING. IN ADDITION...NEW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT HAS BEGUN ALONG AND
JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS AREA
REALLY BLOSSOMING OVER THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS WHILE THE BAND OF RAIN
OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS MAY SHOW SIGNS OF DISSIPATING. MAY NEED TO
ADJUST POPS THIS AFTERNOON BUT FOR NOW CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GOOD
HANDLE.
KRM
DISCUSSION.... /ISSUED 438 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015/
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL WILL AFFECT THE MIDSOUTH
TODAY AND TONIGHT BRINGING THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.
EARLY THIS MORNING...BILL REMAINED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND WAS
TRACKING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. A BROKEN
BAND OF SHOWERS HAD SPREAD INTO THE MIDSOUTH AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
AND WAS INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.
BILL IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TODAY AS IT CONTINUE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. THE LOW WILL TRACK
ALONG THE AR AND MO BORDER MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BY LATE
AFTERNOON. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. ATTM...THINK WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN
2.4 AND 2.5 INCHES ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD INTO THE MIDSOUTH TODAY.
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE WIDESPREAD HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL TRACK
CLOSE TO OR JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN REACHES OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...NEAR THE THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. KEPT THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST AR AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF A LINE FROM WALNUT RIDGE AR TO CARUTHERSVILLE MO. FLASH FLOOD
VALUES ARE FAIRLY HIGH ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...BUT RAINFALL MAY BE
HEAVY ENOUGH IN A SHORT TIME TO CAUSE SOME FLASH FLOODING IN THE
WATCH AREA. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR AS SPIRAL BANDS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPAND WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS
THE MIDSOUTH. A FEW EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE THAT COULD
RESULT IN ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS. OF THE VARIOUS
MODELS...THE NAM INDICATES THE GREATEST DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ACROSS
THE REGION WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ROTATING SUPERCELLS.
HOWEVER...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED.
THE REMNANTS OF BILL WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE KY / IN BORDER BY 12Z
SATURDAY. MODELS INDICATE THAT LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY NOON SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES FURTHER TO THE EAST. SOUTHWEST
LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PUSH HOT AIR INTO THE REGION WITH
THE NAM BEING THE MOST ROBUST.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
OVER THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE WEST BEGINNING SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A MOSTLY RAIN FREE AND PERIOD OF EXCESSIVE HEAT. HEAT INDEX
READINGS WILL PROBABLY CLIMB TO ABOVE 105 DEGREES WITH A HEAT
ADVISORY BECOMING NECESSARY FOR MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH. DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE HOW MUCH DRY WILL WORK ITS WAY DOWN TO THE SURFACE FROM
ALOFT DURING THE AFTERNOONS...BUT USUALLY FOLLOWING TROPICAL
SYSTEMS THE LOWER LEVELS REMAIN QUITE MOIST.
MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENING BY THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING.
THIS IS A LONG WAYS OFF AND REMAINS TO BE SEEN.
JCL
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
REMNANTS OF BILL TRACKING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. NUMEROUS SHRAS AND
SCATTERED TSRAS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDS WITH MVFR...ISOLD IFR...CONDS IN
THE BANDS OF SHRAS/TSRAS. PRECIPITATION WILL START TO TAPER OFF
THIS EVENING. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDS OVERNIGHT WITH SOME LOW
CLOUDS POSSIBLE AT KMKL AND KTUP TOWARD MORNING. VFR CONDS RETURN
AREAWIDE SATURDAY MORNING AS THE REMNANTS OF BILL DEPART. WINDS
WILL BE STRONG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 KTS AT KMEM...KJBR AND KMKL. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING.
SJM
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR CLAY-GREENE-
LAWRENCE-RANDOLPH.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1029 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.UPDATE...
REMNANTS OF BILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT NORTHEAST ARKANSAS THIS
MORNING. IN ADDITION...NEW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT HAS BEGUN ALONG AND
JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS AREA
REALLY BLOSSOMING OVER THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS WHILE THE BAND OF RAIN
OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS MAY SHOW SIGNS OF DISSIPATING. MAY NEED TO
ADJUST POPS THIS AFTERNOON BUT FOR NOW CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GOOD
HANDLE.
KRM
&&
.DISCUSSION.... /ISSUED 438 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015/
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL WILL AFFECT THE MIDSOUTH
TODAY AND TONIGHT BRINGING THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.
EARLY THIS MORNING...BILL REMAINED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND WAS
TRACKING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. A BROKEN
BAND OF SHOWERS HAD SPREAD INTO THE MIDSOUTH AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
AND WAS INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.
BILL IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TODAY AS IT CONTINUE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. THE LOW WILL TRACK
ALONG THE AR AND MO BORDER MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BY LATE
AFTERNOON. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. ATTM...THINK WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN
2.4 AND 2.5 INCHES ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD INTO THE MIDSOUTH TODAY.
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE WIDESPREAD HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL TRACK
CLOSE TO OR JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN REACHES OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...NEAR THE THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. KEPT THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST AR AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF A LINE FROM WALNUT RIDGE AR TO CARUTHERSVILLE MO. FLASH FLOOD
VALUES ARE FAIRLY HIGH ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...BUT RAINFALL MAY BE
HEAVY ENOUGH IN A SHORT TIME TO CAUSE SOME FLASH FLOODING IN THE
WATCH AREA. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR AS SPIRAL BANDS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPAND WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS
THE MIDSOUTH. A FEW EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE THAT COULD
RESULT IN ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS. OF THE VARIOUS
MODELS...THE NAM INDICATES THE GREATEST DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ACROSS
THE REGION WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ROTATING SUPERCELLS.
HOWEVER...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED.
THE REMNANTS OF BILL WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE KY / IN BORDER BY 12Z
SATURDAY. MODELS INDICATE THAT LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY NOON SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES FURTHER TO THE EAST. SOUTHWEST
LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PUSH HOT AIR INTO THE REGION WITH
THE NAM BEING THE MOST ROBUST.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
OVER THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE WEST BEGINNING SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A MOSTLY RAIN FREE AND PERIOD OF EXCESSIVE HEAT. HEAT INDEX
READINGS WILL PROBABLY CLIMB TO ABOVE 105 DEGREES WITH A HEAT
ADVISORY BECOMING NECESSARY FOR MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH. DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE HOW MUCH DRY WILL WORK ITS WAY DOWN TO THE SURFACE FROM
ALOFT DURING THE AFTERNOONS...BUT USUALLY FOLLOWING TROPICAL
SYSTEMS THE LOWER LEVELS REMAIN QUITE MOIST.
MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENING BY THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING.
THIS IS A LONG WAYS OFF AND REMAINS TO BE SEEN.
JCL
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY AT ALL TERMINALS WITH SHOWERS INCREASING
IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
BILL. WINDS HAVE ALSO INCREASED IN ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION. WINDS WILL GAIN A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON REMAINING BETWEEN 15 AND 25 KTS. VCTS IS
ALSO POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z AS SOME DAYTIME HEATING IS REALIZED.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...BEGINNING TO
DECREASE TOWARD 09Z SATURDAY.
TVT
&&
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR CLAY-GREENE-
LAWRENCE-RANDOLPH.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
950 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
.UPDATE...
MCS THAT FORMED JUST SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE ALONG THE GULF OF
COAST OF MEXICO LATE THIS MORNING AND MOVED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WAS DISSIPATING OVER NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS LEAVING SOME LIGHT RAIN AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS SHOW A
MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE RIO GRANDE.
MODELS INDICATE THIS FEATURE TO LINGER INTO AT LEAST SUNDAY. THE
SAME DATA SHOWS PWS RANGE FROM 1.5 INCHES OVER THE LOWER PECOS
VALLEY TO 2.1 INCHES NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS. EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT DUE TO UPWARD FORCING OF
THE MOIST AIRMASS AND HAVE MAINTAINED CURRENT POPS. THE OUTFLOW
FROM THE MCS COOLED OFF TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
FORECASTED LOWS AND HAVE RE-ESTABLISHED TRENDS TO THE TEMPERATURES
AND GONE 1 TO 3 DEGREES COOLER ON THE LOWS. REMAINDER OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST IS ON TRACK. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015/
AVIATION... /00Z TAF UPDATE/
A SQUALL WILL PULL NORTH OF THE AUS VCNTY IN THE NEXT 15 MINUTES
OR SO. AFTERWARDS...CONVECTION SHOULD BE MOSTLY BETWEEN THE I-35
TAF SITES AND DRT. LIGHT SHRA OVER THE SAT/SSF AREA COULD BE
PRODUCING BRIEF STRATUS FRACTUS...BUT WILL NOT SHOW THIS IN TAFS
DESPITE A BKN IFR CIG AT SSF AT 2339Z. MORE IFR CIGS SHOULD
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AFTER A MOSTLY STABLE REST OF THE EVENING IN
THE WAKE OF THE SQUALLS. WILL STICK WITH PERSISTENCE AND
CONSISTENCY WITH EARLIER TAFS ON THE TIMING OF THE CIG CATEGORY
CHANGES. BASED ON THE HRRR AND OTHER FINE RESOLUTION
MODELS...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP EARLY IN THE DAY AGAIN
SUNDAY...BUT WILL EXPECT LESS COVERAGE AND NOT MENTION THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER OR TIMING AT THIS POINT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
ONGOING CONVECTION IN THE CWA AND APPROACHING CONVECTION FROM
SOUTH TEXAS WILL BRING SCATTERED COVERAGE OF STORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE FOCUS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND WINTER GARDEN
AREA...CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND HIGHEST PW AIR.
THERE IS ALSO MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN THIS AREA...BUT
THAT SHOULD BE SPOTTY AND PROBABLY UNDER 3 INCHES FOR ANY SINGLE
POINT...HENCE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL NOT BE ISSUED. CONDITIONS
DO NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT EXCEPT A SLIGHT REDUCTION
IN PW TO 1.8-2.0 INCHES AND THE BEGINNING OF THE TROUGH
WEAKENING. THUS...SIMILAR CHANCE POPS AND LOW TO MODERATE QPF.
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE LONGER TERM REGIONAL AND GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
OVER THE NEXT WEEK WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BECOMING ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S....EFFECTIVELY REMOVING THE TROUGH
CURRENTLY IN PLACE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRYING AND WARMING SUCH
THAT ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND SERRANIAS
DEL BURRO IN MEXICO OCCURS...WHILE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL LOWER 90S. THE FORECAST UNDERCUTS MAX TEMPS 1-3 F DUE TO
THE EXPECTATION OF NEAR-SURFACE MOISTURE HAVING TO EVAPORATE OFF.
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SPLITS IN TWO AS THE LONGWAVE PATTERN FORCES
A LARGE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY TROUGH...AND
BERMUDA RIDGE...WITH A BREAK IN THE RIDGES EXTENDING FROM THE
TROUGH INTO EAST TEXAS. THIS SHOULD OPEN UP THE GULF FOR A MOIST
AIR SURGE NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK...AND THUS
INCREASED POPS A LITTLE MORE INLAND FROM THE COAST. KEPT
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 72 89 75 91 74 / 40 30 20 10 -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 73 88 74 91 73 / 40 30 20 10 -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 73 89 75 91 74 / 40 30 20 20 -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 71 87 74 90 72 / 40 30 20 10 -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 74 89 75 91 75 / 50 30 30 20 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 72 88 75 91 73 / 40 30 20 10 -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 73 87 75 90 73 / 50 40 30 20 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 73 88 75 91 74 / 40 30 20 20 -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 74 89 76 91 74 / 40 30 20 20 -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 75 88 77 91 75 / 40 30 20 20 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 74 88 76 91 75 / 40 40 20 20 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...OAKS
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
652 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
.AVIATION... /00Z TAF UPDATE/
A SQUALL WILL PULL NORTH OF THE AUS VCNTY IN THE NEXT 15 MINUTES
OR SO. AFTERWARDS...CONVECTION SHOULD BE MOSTLY BETWEEN THE I-35
TAF SITES AND DRT. LIGHT SHRA OVER THE SAT/SSF AREA COULD BE
PRODUCING BRIEF STRATUS FRACTUS...BUT WILL NOT SHOW THIS IN TAFS
DESPITE A BKN IFR CIG AT SSF AT 2339Z. MORE IFR CIGS SHOULD
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AFTER A MOSTLY STABLE REST OF THE EVENING IN
THE WAKE OF THE SQUALLS. WILL STICK WITH PERSISTENCE AND
CONSISTENCY WITH EARLIER TAFS ON THE TIMING OF THE CIG CATEGORY
CHANGES. BASED ON THE HRRR AND OTHER FINE RESOLUTION
MODELS...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP EARLY IN THE DAY AGAIN
SUNDAY...BUT WILL EXPECT LESS COVERAGE AND NOT MENTION THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER OR TIMING AT THIS POINT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
ONGOING CONVECTION IN THE CWA AND APPROACHING CONVECTION FROM
SOUTH TEXAS WILL BRING SCATTERED COVERAGE OF STORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE FOCUS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND WINTER GARDEN
AREA...CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND HIGHEST PW AIR.
THERE IS ALSO MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN THIS AREA...BUT
THAT SHOULD BE SPOTTY AND PROBABLY UNDER 3 INCHES FOR ANY SINGLE
POINT...HENCE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL NOT BE ISSUED. CONDITIONS
DO NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT EXCEPT A SLIGHT REDUCTION
IN PW TO 1.8-2.0 INCHES AND THE BEGINNING OF THE TROUGH
WEAKENING. THUS...SIMILAR CHANCE POPS AND LOW TO MODERATE QPF.
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE LONGER TERM REGIONAL AND GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
OVER THE NEXT WEEK WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BECOMING ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S....EFFECTIVELY REMOVING THE TROUGH
CURRENTLY IN PLACE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRYING AND WARMING SUCH
THAT ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND SERRANIAS
DEL BURRO IN MEXICO OCCURS...WHILE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL LOWER 90S. THE FORECAST UNDERCUTS MAX TEMPS 1-3 F DUE TO
THE EXPECTATION OF NEAR-SURFACE MOISTURE HAVING TO EVAPORATE OFF.
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SPLITS IN TWO AS THE LONGWAVE PATTERN FORCES
A LARGE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY TROUGH...AND
BERMUDA RIDGE...WITH A BREAK IN THE RIDGES EXTENDING FROM THE
TROUGH INTO EAST TEXAS. THIS SHOULD OPEN UP THE GULF FOR A MOIST
AIR SURGE NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK...AND THUS
INCREASED POPS A LITTLE MORE INLAND FROM THE COAST. KEPT
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 74 89 75 91 74 / 40 30 20 10 -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 74 88 74 91 73 / 40 30 20 10 -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 74 89 75 91 74 / 40 30 20 20 -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 73 87 74 90 72 / 40 30 20 10 -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 74 89 75 91 75 / 50 30 30 20 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 74 88 75 91 73 / 40 30 20 10 -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 73 87 75 90 73 / 50 40 30 20 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 74 88 75 91 74 / 40 30 20 20 -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 76 89 76 91 74 / 40 30 20 20 -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 75 88 77 91 75 / 40 30 20 20 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 75 88 76 91 75 / 40 40 20 20 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...OAKS
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...TREADWAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1245 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS
EVENING AT ANY TAF SITE. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW WITH
REGARD TO LOCATIONS OF ANY STORMS DUE TO EXPECTED LIMITED
COVERAGE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015/
AVIATION...
-SHRA/-TSRA THAT WERE IMPACTING KLBB AND KPVW HAVE DIMINISHED.
WINDS HAVE THEREFORE BECOME VARIABLE BUT WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE TO
THE SOUTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING...BEFORE VEERING TO THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON. COMPUTER MODELS HINT AT THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED -TSRA TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS
EVENING...THOUGH THE EXACT LOCATION IS UNCERTAIN AND THE MODELS
COULD BE OVERDOING THIS CONVECTION. AS SUCH...CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT A PRECIP MENTION FOR THIS TAF CYCLE...AND
OPT TO WAIT AND SEE HOW TRENDS GO LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WILL OF
COURSE AMEND AS NECESSARY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015/
SHORT TERM...
AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL CONTINUED TO PUSH ENEWRD ACROSS NRN AR
EARLY THIS MORNING...BROAD UA RIDGING ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS HAS
GRADUALLY EXPANDED EWRD TO NEAR REGION. THUS...THE WRN PERIPHERY
WAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS SUCH...N-NW FLOW ALOFT
PREVAILED WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A WANING MCS HAVING THE CAPABILITY
TO SAG SWRD ACROSS THE TX/NM STATE LINE PER 07Z WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY. FURTHERMORE...RADAR ANALYSIS SHOWED THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS IN THE WAKE OF AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TRANSLATING SE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND
TOWARDS LOCALES OFF THE CAPROCK. ALTHOUGH THIS SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS MOVING...THE RATHER MOIST ENVIRONMENT /DEWPOINTS IN
THE 50S AND 60S/ HAS ALLOWED THIS ACTIVITY TO BRIEFLY DROP
MODERATE RAINFALL. A TTU MESONSET SITE LOCATED AT REESE CENTER
RECORDED A TOTAL OF 0.53 INCHES THAT OCCURRED WITH ONE HOUR...AND
AT THE NWS OFFICE...AROUND 0.70 INCHES FELL. KEEPING IN MIND THAT
MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE DONE A POOR JOB IN EVEN SHOWING THIS
MORNING/S CONVECTION...WILL ADJUST POPS IN THE PRE-FIRST PERIOD
INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY OFF THE CAPROCK...GIVEN STORMS
HAVE POPPED UP ACROSS BRISCOE COUNTY. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD
DEMISE IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND THE HRRR HINTS AT FOG
DEVELOPING AND REMAINING SOUTH OF THE CWA. WILL KEEP AN EYE OUT TO
SEE IF THIS INDEEDS OCCUR.
TODAY...THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE UA RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND EVER
SO SLIGHTLY EWRD ACROSS THE REGION AND ONE WOULD EXPECT
DECREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP. HOWEVER...THE NAM AND LONG TERM
SOLUTIONS HINT AT STORMS FIRING UP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF NERN NM AND SERN CO THIS AFTN/EVENING. W-SW
MEAN FLOW RAISES EYEBROWS FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO POSSIBLY SHIFT
TOWARDS THE CWA ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT...HOWEVER THE MEAN FLOW IS
RATHER WEAK /AOA 10 KTS/ WHICH COULD MITIGATE THIS FROM OCCURRING.
WHAT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE IS THAT HIGH-RES SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE
HRRR AND THE TTU WRF EXHIBITED ISOLATED-SCATTERED STORMS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTN JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE ACROSS THE FA...WITH THE
CAP EXPECTING TO BREAK BY LATE AFTN. THIS IS A POSSIBILITY
ESPECIALLY SINCE THE UA RIDGE IS NOT QUITE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD...HOWEVER MODELS PERFORMING POORLY AS OF LATE DOES NOT
BODE WELL FOR CONFIDENCE. WILL OPT TO RAISE POPS TO 10- 12 PERCENT
WITH HIGHEST POPS NOTED ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES THIS AFTN...AND
KEEPING POPS AROUND 12 PERCENT ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES ONCE AGAIN
FOR TONIGHT. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS SEE HOW RADAR TRENDS ARE
SHAPING UP THIS AFTN AND EVENING AND WHETHER OR NOT POPS NEED TO
BE RAISED TO MENTIONABLE LEVELS. IF STORMS DO INDEED
DEVELOP...MUCAPE OF 2-2.5 KJ/KG MAY RAISE CONCERNS FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS...HOWEVER RATHER WEAK 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR /LESS THAN 20 KTS/ MAY KEEP STORM STRENGTH ON THE TAME SIDE.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER DAY OF SEASONAL WARMTH IS ON TAP /LOWER 90S/
FOLLOWED BY A MILD NIGHT /LOWER 60S ACROSS NW TO LOWER 70S FAR
EAST/.
LONG TERM...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SWRN CONUS AND ADJACENT WATERS OFF THE
COAST OF SRN AND BAJA CALIF WILL EXPAND EWD THROUGH THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND FAIR BUT BREEZY WEATHER
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A WWD-MOVING
INVERTED UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS
WEEKEND AND ONTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NRN MEXICO TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. AS MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM SPREADS NWD INTO NEW
MEXICO AND AS A LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER CALIF
COULD SEE SOME PRECIP RETURN TO NEW MEXICO AND POSSIBLY THE SOUTH
PLAINS AND PANHANDLE. CONFIDENCE OF THIS DEVELOPMENT BY DAYS 6 AND
7 OF THE FCST TOO LOW TO INSERT PRECIP MENTION JUST YET. UNTIL
THEN WARM AND DRY WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS FCST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 64 92 63 91 / 10 0 0 0
TULIA 66 92 65 90 / 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 65 91 65 89 / 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 65 92 66 90 / 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 66 92 68 89 / 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 63 92 64 90 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 65 92 66 90 / 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 70 95 70 93 / 0 0 0 0
SPUR 68 93 67 90 / 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 70 94 70 92 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
626 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.AVIATION...
-SHRA/-TSRA THAT WERE IMPACTING KLBB AND KPVW HAVE DIMINISHED.
WINDS HAVE THEREFORE BECOME VARIABLE BUT WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE TO
THE SOUTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING...BEFORE VEERING TO THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON. COMPUTER MODELS HINT AT THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED -TSRA TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS
EVENING...THOUGH THE EXACT LOCATION IS UNCERTAIN AND THE MODELS
COULD BE OVERDOING THIS CONVECTION. AS SUCH...CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT A PRECIP MENTION FOR THIS TAF CYCLE...AND
OPT TO WAIT AND SEE HOW TRENDS GO LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WILL OF
COURSE AMEND AS NECESSARY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015/
SHORT TERM...
AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL CONTINUED TO PUSH ENEWRD ACROSS NRN AR
EARLY THIS MORNING...BROAD UA RIDGING ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS HAS
GRADUALLY EXPANDED EWRD TO NEAR REGION. THUS...THE WRN PERIPHERY
WAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS SUCH...N-NW FLOW ALOFT
PREVAILED WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A WANING MCS HAVING THE CAPABILITY
TO SAG SWRD ACROSS THE TX/NM STATE LINE PER 07Z WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY. FURTHERMORE...RADAR ANALYSIS SHOWED THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS IN THE WAKE OF AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TRANSLATING SE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND
TOWARDS LOCALES OFF THE CAPROCK. ALTHOUGH THIS SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS MOVING...THE RATHER MOIST ENVIRONMENT /DEWPOINTS IN
THE 50S AND 60S/ HAS ALLOWED THIS ACTIVITY TO BRIEFLY DROP
MODERATE RAINFALL. A TTU MESONSET SITE LOCATED AT REESE CENTER
RECORDED A TOTAL OF 0.53 INCHES THAT OCCURRED WITH ONE HOUR...AND
AT THE NWS OFFICE...AROUND 0.70 INCHES FELL. KEEPING IN MIND THAT
MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE DONE A POOR JOB IN EVEN SHOWING THIS
MORNING/S CONVECTION...WILL ADJUST POPS IN THE PRE-FIRST PERIOD
INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY OFF THE CAPROCK...GIVEN STORMS
HAVE POPPED UP ACROSS BRISCOE COUNTY. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD
DEMISE IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND THE HRRR HINTS AT FOG
DEVELOPING AND REMAINING SOUTH OF THE CWA. WILL KEEP AN EYE OUT TO
SEE IF THIS INDEEDS OCCUR.
TODAY...THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE UA RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND EVER
SO SLIGHTLY EWRD ACROSS THE REGION AND ONE WOULD EXPECT
DECREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP. HOWEVER...THE NAM AND LONG TERM
SOLUTIONS HINT AT STORMS FIRING UP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF NERN NM AND SERN CO THIS AFTN/EVENING. W-SW
MEAN FLOW RAISES EYEBROWS FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO POSSIBLY SHIFT
TOWARDS THE CWA ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT...HOWEVER THE MEAN FLOW IS
RATHER WEAK /AOA 10 KTS/ WHICH COULD MITIGATE THIS FROM OCCURRING.
WHAT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE IS THAT HIGH-RES SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE
HRRR AND THE TTU WRF EXHIBITED ISOLATED-SCATTERED STORMS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTN JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE ACROSS THE FA...WITH THE
CAP EXPECTING TO BREAK BY LATE AFTN. THIS IS A POSSIBILITY
ESPECIALLY SINCE THE UA RIDGE IS NOT QUITE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD...HOWEVER MODELS PERFORMING POORLY AS OF LATE DOES NOT
BODE WELL FOR CONFIDENCE. WILL OPT TO RAISE POPS TO 10- 12 PERCENT
WITH HIGHEST POPS NOTED ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES THIS AFTN...AND
KEEPING POPS AROUND 12 PERCENT ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES ONCE AGAIN
FOR TONIGHT. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS SEE HOW RADAR TRENDS ARE
SHAPING UP THIS AFTN AND EVENING AND WHETHER OR NOT POPS NEED TO
BE RAISED TO MENTIONABLE LEVELS. IF STORMS DO INDEED
DEVELOP...MUCAPE OF 2-2.5 KJ/KG MAY RAISE CONCERNS FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS...HOWEVER RATHER WEAK 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR /LESS THAN 20 KTS/ MAY KEEP STORM STRENGTH ON THE TAME SIDE.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER DAY OF SEASONAL WARMTH IS ON TAP /LOWER 90S/
FOLLOWED BY A MILD NIGHT /LOWER 60S ACROSS NW TO LOWER 70S FAR
EAST/.
LONG TERM...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SWRN CONUS AND ADJACENT WATERS OFF THE
COAST OF SRN AND BAJA CALIF WILL EXPAND EWD THROUGH THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND FAIR BUT BREEZY WEATHER
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A WWD-MOVING
INVERTED UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS
WEEKEND AND ONTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NRN MEXICO TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. AS MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM SPREADS NWD INTO NEW
MEXICO AND AS A LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER CALIF
COULD SEE SOME PRECIP RETURN TO NEW MEXICO AND POSSIBLY THE SOUTH
PLAINS AND PANHANDLE. CONFIDENCE OF THIS DEVELOPMENT BY DAYS 6 AND
7 OF THE FCST TOO LOW TO INSERT PRECIP MENTION JUST YET. UNTIL
THEN WARM AND DRY WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS FCST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 90 64 92 63 / 10 10 0 0
TULIA 91 66 92 65 / 10 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 91 65 91 65 / 10 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 93 65 92 66 / 10 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 93 66 92 68 / 10 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 91 63 92 64 / 10 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 92 65 92 66 / 10 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 94 70 95 70 / 10 0 0 0
SPUR 94 68 93 67 / 10 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 95 70 94 70 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
29/7/29
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
406 AM MDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING HOT AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER TO
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE TO
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE BORDERLAND EACH DAY
WITH MOST OF THE STORMS OCCURRING OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE EAST WILL GENERATE
INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT
THURSDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER ACTIVE NIGHT FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTING INTO THE EARLY MORNING DESPITE
ALL THE MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR PREDICTING DRY WEATHER. LIKE
LAST NIGHT THERE IS AS POSSIBLE POORLY ANALYZED UPPER WAVE MOVING
AROUND THE RIDGE INTO EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA FROM THE NORTH.
THE WEST TO EAST ORIENTED UPPER RIDGE NOW EXTENDING INTO THE CWA
WILL FURTHER EXPAND AND STRENGTHEN INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER ALOFT LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO BY LATE
SUNDAY. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE PLUS ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL SUPPORT
HOT ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY. WARM AIR
ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE WILL ALSO GREATLY INHIBIT CONVECTION ACROSS
MOST AREAS DESPITE HOT AND MODERATELY MOIST CONDITIONS AT LOW
LEVELS. THUS EXPECT MOST CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS THROUGH MONDAY THOUGH VERY ISOLATED STORMS MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS VIA HEATING PLUS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES.
MODELS HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT AND IN AGREEMENT IN MOVING RATHER
HIGH AMPLITUDE INVERTED TROUGH SLOWLY INTO WEST AND SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. TRAJECTORIES AROUND THE TROUGH
WILL ADVECT ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO THE CWA CAUSING PRECIPITABLE
WATER TO RISE ABOVE AN INCH WITH THE AIR MASS BECOMING WEAKLY
UNSTABLE. LIFTING AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD CONSEQUENTLY
INDUCE MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. IF MODELS
PROVE CORRECT POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING WILL
INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SO SITUATION SHOULD BE MONITORED
LATER FORECAST PERIODS.
&&
.AVIATION...19/12Z-20/12Z.
ISOLATED AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS MOST AREAS WITH AREAS OF
CEILINGS ABOVE 10,000 FEET AGL. THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH WITH WINDS OTHERWISE HAVING SPEEDS AROUND 5 TO 15
MPH.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING HOT AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER TO
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE TO BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA EACH DAY WITH MOST OF THE
STORMS OCCURRING OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS. WINDS MAY GUST TO 50
MPH NEAR STORMS...OTHERWISE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE MOSTLY AROUND 5 TO
15 MPH. LOWEST AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL BE AROUND 5 TO 15 PERCENT
LOWLANDS AND 20 TO 30 PERCENT MOUNTAINS TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE EAST WILL
GENERATE INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TUESDAY
THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 100 75 102 76 / 10 10 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 94 69 96 70 / 10 10 10 0
LAS CRUCES 98 69 101 70 / 10 10 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 96 68 99 69 / 10 10 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 77 50 79 53 / 30 30 20 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 97 68 99 69 / 10 20 0 0
SILVER CITY 93 61 94 62 / 10 20 0 0
DEMING 99 65 101 66 / 10 10 0 0
LORDSBURG 99 67 100 67 / 10 10 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 99 76 102 76 / 10 10 0 0
DELL CITY 94 67 99 68 / 10 10 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 97 73 100 73 / 10 10 10 0
LOMA LINDA 94 67 98 69 / 10 10 0 0
FABENS 100 72 102 73 / 10 10 10 0
SANTA TERESA 99 71 101 71 / 10 10 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 96 70 100 71 / 10 10 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 97 66 100 67 / 10 10 0 0
HATCH 98 66 101 67 / 10 10 0 0
COLUMBUS 99 70 101 70 / 10 10 0 0
OROGRANDE 97 72 99 73 / 10 10 0 0
MAYHILL 83 54 88 56 / 30 30 20 10
MESCALERO 85 53 89 55 / 30 30 10 10
TIMBERON 83 51 87 54 / 30 30 10 0
WINSTON 91 57 96 60 / 20 20 0 0
HILLSBORO 97 63 101 64 / 10 20 0 0
SPACEPORT 98 66 100 67 / 10 10 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 91 54 94 58 / 20 20 0 0
HURLEY 94 61 96 62 / 10 10 0 0
CLIFF 98 56 99 55 / 10 10 0 0
MULE CREEK 97 52 98 51 / 10 10 0 0
FAYWOOD 94 62 97 64 / 10 10 0 0
ANIMAS 100 68 101 67 / 10 10 0 0
HACHITA 100 67 101 66 / 10 10 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 99 66 100 65 / 10 10 0 0
CLOVERDALE 98 64 98 62 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
05 ROGASH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
315 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.SHORT TERM...
AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL CONTINUED TO PUSH ENEWRD ACROSS NRN AR
EARLY THIS MORNING...BROAD UA RIDGING ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS HAS
GRADUALLY EXPANDED WRD TO NEAR REGION. THUS...THE WRN PERIPHERY WAS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS SUCH...N-NW FLOW ALOFT PREVAILED
WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A WANING MCS HAVING THE CAPABILITY TO SAG SWRD
ACROSS THE TX/NM STATE LINE PER 07Z WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY.
FURTHERMORE...RADAR ANALYSIS SHOWED THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS IN THE WAKE OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TRANSLATING SE
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND TOWARDS LOCALES OFF THE CAPROCK.
ALTHOUGH THIS SCATTERED CONVECTION IS MOVING...THE RATHER MOIST
ENVIRONMENT /DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S/ HAS ALLOWED THIS ACTIVITY
TO BRIEFLY DROP MODERATE RAINFALL. A TTU MESONSET SITE LOCATED AT
REESE CENTER RECORDED A TOTAL OF 0.53 INCHES THAT OCCURRED WITH ONE
HOUR...AND AT THE NWS OFFICE...AROUND 0.70 INCHES FELL. KEEPING IN
MIND THAT MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE DONE A POOR JOB IN EVEN SHOWING THIS
MORNING/S CONVECTION...WILL ADJUST POPS IN THE PRE-FIRST PERIOD INTO
THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY OFF THE CAPROCK...GIVEN STORMS HAVE
POPPED UP ACROSS BRISCOE COUNTY. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD DEMISE IN
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND THE HRRR HINTS AT FOG DEVELOPING AND
REMAINING SOUTH OF THE CWA. WILL KEEP AN EYE OUT TO SEE IF THIS
INDEEDS OCCUR.
TODAY...THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE UA RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND EVER
SO SLIGHTLY WRD ACROSS THE REGION AND ONE WOULD EXPECT DECREASING
CHANCES FOR PRECIP. HOWEVER...THE NAM AND LONG TERM SOLUTIONS HINT
AT STORMS FIRING UP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF
NERN NM AND SERN CO THIS AFTN/EVENING. W-SW MEAN FLOW RAISES
EYEBROWS FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO POSSIBLY SHIFT TOWARDS THE CWA ONCE
AGAIN TONIGHT...HOWEVER THE MEAN FLOW IS RATHER WEAK /AOA 10 KTS/
WHICH COULD MITIGATE THIS FROM OCCURRING. WHAT IS INTERESTING TO
NOTE IS THAT HIGH-RES SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND THE TTU WRF
EXHIBITED ISOLATED-SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTN JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE ACROSS THE FA...WITH THE CAP EXPECTING TO BREAK BY LATE
AFTN. THIS IS A POSSIBILITY ESPECIALLY SINCE THE UA RIDGE IS NOT
QUITE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...HOWEVER MODELS PERFORMING POORLY AS OF
LATE DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR CONFIDENCE. WILL OPT TO RAISE POPS TO 10-
12 PERCENT WITH HIGHEST POPS NOTED ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES THIS
AFTN...AND KEEPING POPS AROUND 12 PERCENT ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES ONCE
AGAIN FOR TONIGHT. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS SEE HOW RADAR TRENDS ARE
SHAPING UP THIS AFTN AND EVENING AND WHETHER OR NOT POPS NEED TO BE
RAISED TO MENTIONABLE LEVELS. IF STORMS DO INDEED DEVELOP...MUCAPE
OF 2-2.5 KJ/KG MAY RAISE CONCERNS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS...HOWEVER RATHER WEAK 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR /LESS THAN 20 KTS/
MAY KEEP STORM STRENGTH ON THE TAME SIDE. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER DAY OF
SEASONAL WARMTH IS ON TAP /LOWER 90S/ FOLLOWED BY A MILD NIGHT
/LOWER 60S ACROSS NW TO LOWER 70S FAR EAST/.
.LONG TERM...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SWRN CONUS AND ADJACENT WATERS OFF THE
COAST OF SRN AND BAJA CALIF WILL EXPAND EWD THROUGH THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND FAIR BUT BREEZY WEATHER
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A WWD-MOVING
INVERTED UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS
WEEKEND AND ONTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NRN MEXICO TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. AS MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM SPREADS NWD INTO NEW
MEXICO AND AS A LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER CALIF
COULD SEE SOME PRECIP RETURN TO NEW MEXICO AND POSSIBLY THE SOUTH
PLAINS AND PANHANDLE. CONFIDENCE OF THIS DEVELOPMENT BY DAYS 6 AND
7 OF THE FCST TOO LOW TO INSERT PRECIP MENTION JUST YET. UNTIL
THEN WARM AND DRY WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS FCST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 90 64 92 63 / 10 10 0 0
TULIA 91 66 92 65 / 10 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 91 65 91 65 / 10 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 93 65 92 66 / 10 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 93 66 92 68 / 10 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 91 63 92 64 / 10 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 92 65 92 66 / 10 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 94 70 95 70 / 10 0 0 0
SPUR 94 68 93 67 / 10 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 95 70 94 70 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
29/07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1136 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2015
.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
Little change made to the previous set of TAFs. Low level
moisture is still expected to return northward, resulting in MVFR
CIGs at southern locations. Thunderstorms from earlier may delay
these low clouds somewhat, but should not keep them from making
progress north later tonight. By mid to late morning, all sites
should scatter out to VFR conditions with only scattered cumulus
affecting the area tomorrow afternoon, but no SHRA or TSRA
expected tomorrow. We may see a few gusts near 15 knots during the
afternoon at southern sites.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 808 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2015/
UPDATE...
Made a quick update to the forecast to carry higher rain chances
across our far southeastern counties this evening, and to include
a mention of locally heavy rainfall. Scattered, slow moving showers
and thunderstorms are occurring southeast of a Sonora to Brady line.
Outflow boundary emanating from this convection is moving slowly to
the northwest, and some new development is possible along and behind
this outflow boundary. Expect this shower and thunderstorms activity
to dissipate prior to 11 PM tonight.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2015/
AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
VFR conditions currently prevail across the area. There are a few
isolated showers and thunderstorms near KSOA, KJCT, and KBBD, so
will have a mention of VCTS for this activity through the evening
hours. Otherwise, expect MVFR to possibly IFR conditions to
develop after 06Z again tonight, mainly for the four southern
terminals. Just mentioned a SCT020 group for KABI as they will
probably be too far north for low clouds again. Light and
variable or light southerly winds can be expected. 20
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2015/
SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)
Bill remnants well to the northeast, with a weak shear axis draped
from the Hill Country northeast into the center of Bill. Have
continued to see scattered showers and storms across the Hill
Country and these should continue. Both the HRRR and the TTU WRF to
a lesser extent show a little convection developing later this
afternoon across much of the remainder of the area. Will continue
the mention of a few isolated showers and storms for a few hours
this evening. A few storms possible again on Friday afternoon across
the southeast as the shear axis slowly erodes, but rain chances at
most locations will be so small that will not mention in the
forecast. Otherwise, warm and humid air mass in place with surface
dewpoints hanging near 70 in most locations.
LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Thursday)
Upper high pressure will continue to build eastward over the
southwestern states this weekend as an inverted upper trough
expands into south Texas from northern Mexico. There is a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms associated with the Mexican
disturbance over the Interstate 10 corridor Saturday afternoon
and through Saturday night. The presence of the Mexican upper low
will keep a slight chance of rainfall over primarily the southern
portions of the forecast area south of Interstate 20 through
Monday night. As the center of the upper high pressure area moves
east over the southern Plains late Monday the upper inverted
trough will be deflected to our west as will any associated
rainfall. The forecast will therefore remain dry Monday through
Thursday.
Temperatures will remain seasonal with afternoon highs in the
upper 80s to the lower 90s and morning lows around 70.
15
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 71 91 72 91 72 / 10 10 5 5 5
San Angelo 71 90 70 89 70 / 10 10 5 5 10
Junction 70 87 71 87 71 / 40 20 10 20 20
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
904 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD
THROUGH WEST VIRGINIA AND PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. FOR
NEXT WEEK...THE AREA WILL BE IN A WEATHER PATTERN THAT WILL ALLOW
FOR MULTIPLE SYSTEMS TO PROGRESS SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...EACH ONE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS
OF THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 840 PM EDT SATURDAY...
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND FLASH FLOOD WATCHES HAVE BEEN
CANCELLED FOR THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA. A SMALL AREA OF
SHOWERS SHIFTING ACROSS SE WV SHOULD STAY ON THE LIGHT OR MODERATE
SIDE SUCH THAT HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING
HAS ENDED. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AS OF THIS AFD.
LATEST HRRR FAVORS DRYING OVERNIGHT INTO THE SW CWA WITH SHOWERS
LINGERING OVER NW CWA ACROSS SE WV INTO THE HIGHLANDS...AND
ADJUSTED POPS TO SHOW THIS.
PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
LATE TONIGHT...THE AREA WILL BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...BUT
MODERATELY STRONG 850 MB NORTHWEST WINDS WILL HELP MAINTAIN UPSLOPE
CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE...ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWER 70S ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT.
ON SUNDAY...DRIER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION AND HELP TO
ERODE THE EARLY MORNING CLOUD COVER BY THE LATE MORNING.
HOWEVER...EXPECT A RETURN OF INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST A BE THE TRIGGER FOR THIS
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10
DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
LOWER 90S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY...
SURFACE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MIGHT STALL BEFORE PASSING ALL THE WAY
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. BY TUESDAY 850 TEMPERATURES PEAK AROUND
+20 TO +24 ON TUESDAY...BUT THE HOT AIR MASS WILL ALSO HAVE A STRONG
CAP WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO +12. WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS
ABOVE 70 AND MUCAPES APPROACHING 3000 J/KG ANY STORMS THAT DO FIRE
MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY...
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BUT
STILL WITH LIMITED PROGRESS SOUTH THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
PATTERN EVOLVES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FROM ZONAL AT 500 MB TO A
MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND TROF IN THE
EAST. ECMWF HAS SOME SHORT WAVES AND LIFT COMING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN JET STREAM INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
A DECENT COLD FRONT FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COOLER AIR MASS AND EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 725 PM EDT SATURDAY...
EXPECT SHRA AROUND LWB TO LYH/DAN POSSIBLE TS AT DAN TIL 01Z.
OTHERWISE VFR RIGHT THRU THE EVENING TO BECOME MVFR AT LEAST
TOWARD THE BLF/LWB/BCB AREA WITH WNW FLOW AND UPSLOPE SHOWERS
INVOF OF THOSE TERMINALS. MAY ALSO HAVE FOG FORMATION...BUT GIVEN
CLOUD COVER...THE CONFIDENCE OF FOG BELOW IFR IS LOW.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES THIS EVENING...THEN DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME BRIEF GUSTINESS SUNDAY MORNING..
LOWER CIGS WILL SCATTER OUT TO SKC/SCT VFR BY LATE MORNING. NOT
SEEING MUCH OF A THREAT OF PRECIP SO LEFT OUT OF TAFS FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...THOUGH A FEW SHRA/TSRA MAY HEAD CLOSER TO LWB/BLF
AFTER 21Z SUNDAY.
AVIATION EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND ENTER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
ANTICIPATE A RETURN OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MAINLY
WESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION...ALONG WITH POCKETS OF BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS.
THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED...AGAIN PRIMARILY IN THE WEST...THANKS TO ADDITIONAL
NORTHWEST FLOW DISTURBANCES...OR ADDITIONAL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
THAT APPROACH OR MOVE INTO THE AREA.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
HINTON NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.425 MHZ HAS BEEN OFF THE AIR SINCE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS IS DUE TO TELEPHONE OUTAGE...THAT THE LOCAL TELEPHONE COMPANY
IS WORKING ON. THERE IS NO ESTIMATED TIME FOR THIS REPAIR TO BE
FIXED.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS/WP
EQUIPMENT...WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
844 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD
THROUGH WEST VIRGINIA AND PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. FOR
NEXT WEEK...THE AREA WILL BE IN A WEATHER PATTERN THAT WILL ALLOW
FOR MULTIPLE SYSTEMS TO PROGRESS SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...EACH ONE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS
OF THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 840 PM EDT SATURDAY...
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND FLASH FLOOD WATCHES HAVE BEEN
CANCELLED FOR THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA. A SMALL AREA OF
SHOWERS SHIFTING ACROSS SE WV SHOULD STAY ON THE LIGHT OR MODERATE
SIDE SUCH THAT HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING
HAS ENDED. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AS OF THIS AFD.
LATEST HRRR FAVORS DRYING OVERNIGHT INTO THE SW CWA WITH SHOWERS
LINGERING OVER NW CWA ACROSS SE WV INTO THE HIGHLANDS...AND
ADJUSTED POPS TO SHOW THIS.
PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
LATE TONIGHT...THE AREA WILL BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...BUT
MODERATELY STRONG 850 MB NORTHWEST WINDS WILL HELP MAINTAIN UPSLOPE
CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE...ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWER 70S ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT.
ON SUNDAY...DRIER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION AND HELP TO
ERODE THE EARLY MORNING CLOUD COVER BY THE LATE MORNING.
HOWEVER...EXPECT A RETURN OF INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST A BE THE TRIGGER FOR THIS
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10
DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
LOWER 90S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY...
SURFACE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MIGHT STALL BEFORE PASSING ALL THE WAY
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. BY TUESDAY 850 TEMPERATURES PEAK AROUND
+20 TO +24 ON TUESDAY...BUT THE HOT AIR MASS WILL ALSO HAVE A STRONG
CAP WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO +12. WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS
ABOVE 70 AND MUCAPES APPROACHING 3000 J/KG ANY STORMS THAT DO FIRE
MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY...
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BUT
STILL WITH LIMITED PROGRESS SOUTH THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
PATTERN EVOLVES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FROM ZONAL AT 500 MB TO A
MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND TROF IN THE
EAST. ECMWF HAS SOME SHORT WAVES AND LIFT COMING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN JET STREAM INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
A DECENT COLD FRONT FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COOLER AIR MASS AND EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 725 PM EDT SATURDAY...
EXPECT SHRA AROUND LWB TO LYH/DAN POSSIBLE TS AT DAN TIL 01Z.
OTHERWISE VFR RIGHT THRU THE EVENING TO BECOME MVFR AT LEAST
TOWARD THE BLF/LWB/BCB AREA WITH WNW FLOW AND UPSLOPE SHOWERS
INVOF OF THOSE TERMINALS. MAY ALSO HAVE FOG FORMATION...BUT GIVEN
CLOUD COVER...THE CONFIDENCE OF FOG BELOW IFR IS LOW.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES THIS EVENING...THEN DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME BRIEF GUSTINESS SUNDAY MORNING..
LOWER CIGS WILL SCATTER OUT TO SKC/SCT VFR BY LATE MORNING. NOT
SEEING MUCH OF A THREAT OF PRECIP SO LEFT OUT OF TAFS FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...THOUGH A FEW SHRA/TSRA MAY HEAD CLOSER TO LWB/BLF
AFTER 21Z SUNDAY.
AVIATION EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND ENTER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
ANTICIPATE A RETURN OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MAINLY
WESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION...ALONG WITH POCKETS OF BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS.
THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED...AGAIN PRIMARILY IN THE WEST...THANKS TO ADDITIONAL
NORTHWEST FLOW DISTURBANCES...OR ADDITIONAL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
THAT APPROACH OR MOVE INTO THE AREA.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
736 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD
THROUGH WEST VIRGINIA AND PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THIS
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. FOR NEXT WEEK...THE
AREA WILL BE IN A WEATHER PATTERN THAT WILL ALLOW FOR MULTIPLE
SYSTEMS TO PROGRESS SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...EACH ONE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 720 PM EDT SATURDAY...
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT ON THE ERN FRINGE OF OUR
CWA...AND WILL BE CANCELLING A GOOD CHUNK OF SVR WATCH 381
SOON...LEAVING IT UP FOR OUR FAR ERN COUNTIES TIL STORMS CLEAR.
PER COLLABORATION WITH WFO CHARLESTON WV...AM LEANING TOWARD
DROPPING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH LATER THIS EVENING AS DEEP
CONVECTION SEEMS TO BE LACKING OVER THE WV MTNS. THINK RAINFALL
RATES WILL BE LOWER THEREFORE LOWERING ANY FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
LATEST HRRR FAVORS DRYING OVERNIGHT INTO THE SW CWA WITH SHOWERS
LINGERING OVER NW CWA ACROSS SE WV INTO THE HIGHLANDS...AND
ADJUSTED POPS TO SHOW THIS.
NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BEYOND THE SVR WATCH AND
POPS/WX.
PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
LATE TONIGHT...THE AREA WILL BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...BUT
MODERATELY STRONG 850 MB NORTHWEST WINDS WILL HELP MAINTAIN UPSLOPE
CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE...ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWER 70S ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT.
ON SUNDAY...DRIER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION AND HELP TO
ERODE THE EARLY MORNING CLOUD COVER BY THE LATE MORNING.
HOWEVER...EXPECT A RETURN OF INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST A BE THE TRIGGER FOR THIS
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10
DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
LOWER 90S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY...
SURFACE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MIGHT STALL BEFORE PASSING ALL THE WAY
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. BY TUESDAY 850 TEMPERATURES PEAK AROUND
+20 TO +24 ON TUESDAY...BUT THE HOT AIR MASS WILL ALSO HAVE A STRONG
CAP WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO +12. WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS
ABOVE 70 AND MUCAPES APPROACHING 3000 J/KG ANY STORMS THAT DO FIRE
MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY...
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BUT
STILL WITH LIMITED PROGRESS SOUTH THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
PATTERN EVOLVES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FROM ZONAL AT 500 MB TO A
MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND TROF IN THE
EAST. ECMWF HAS SOME SHORT WAVES AND LIFT COMING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN JET STREAM INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
A DECENT COLD FRONT FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COOLER AIR MASS AND EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 725 PM EDT SATURDAY...
EXPECT SHRA AROUND LWB TO LYH/DAN POSSIBLE TS AT DAN TIL 01Z.
OTHERWISE VFR RIGHT THRU THE EVENING TO BECOME MVFR AT LEAST
TOWARD THE BLF/LWB/BCB AREA WITH WNW FLOW AND UPSLOPE SHOWERS
INVOF OF THOSE TERMINALS. MAY ALSO HAVE FOG FORMATION...BUT GIVEN
CLOUD COVER...THE CONFIDENCE OF FOG BELOW IFR IS LOW.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES THIS EVENING...THEN DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME BRIEF GUSTINESS SUNDAY MORNING..
LOWER CIGS WILL SCATTER OUT TO SKC/SCT VFR BY LATE MORNING. NOT
SEEING MUCH OF A THREAT OF PRECIP SO LEFT OUT OF TAFS FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...THOUGH A FEW SHRA/TSRA MAY HEAD CLOSER TO LWB/BLF
AFTER 21Z SUNDAY.
AVIATION EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND ENTER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
ANTICIPATE A RETURN OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MAINLY
WESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION...ALONG WITH POCKETS OF BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS.
THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED...AGAIN PRIMARILY IN THE WEST...THANKS TO ADDITIONAL
NORTHWEST FLOW DISTURBANCES...OR ADDITIONAL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
THAT APPROACH OR MOVE INTO THE AREA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 730 PM EDT SATURDAY...
RADAR SHOWING WEAKENING BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS WV...AND WILL NOT
ANY DEEP CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL FROM STORMS EARLIER DUMPED
ABOUT 1/2 TO 1 INCH IN A FEW SPOTS...BUT DUE TO FAST MOVEMENT
FLOODING WAS NOT A THREAT. SINCE THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT IS
LESSENING MAY DROP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH LATER THIS EVENING.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR VAZ007-009>014-
018>020-022>024.
NC...NONE.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR WVZ042>044-507-
508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS/WP
HYDROLOGY...WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
202 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...
WITH HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. WITH THE
SYSTEMS DEPARTURE BY DAWN SUNDAY...ATTENTION TURNS TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHICH WILL BRING NORTHWESTERLY WINDFLOW
ALOFT TO THE MID ATLANTIC. DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT SATURDAY...
THERE WILL BE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN
MADE. A FEW AREAS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE REACHED TEMPERATURES THAT
ARE AT OR A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE THE FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURE.
HOWEVER...THESE SAME LOCATIONS...MAINLY IN THE WEST...ARE IN STORE
FOR PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE RAISED THE EXPECTED HIGHS...BUT BY NOT MUCH
ABOVE THE CURRENT READINGS. SHOWERS HAVE STARTED ARRIVING IN THE
WEST...FROM THE WEST...AND SOME HAVE ALSO STARTED TO
DEVELOP...ALSO IN WESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION. HAVE MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THIS REGION BASED
UPON THE LATEST COVERAGE AND EXPECTED TRENDS THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.
AS OF 950 AM EDT SATURDAY...
THE OVERALL FORECAST FOR TODAY STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. WE WILL BE
MAKING SOME ADJUSTMENTS IN THE NEAR TERM...AND ALSO THE QUANTITY OF
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FIRST ADJUSTMENT IS
THE TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION. NO PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY
BEING DETECTED ON RADAR IN THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CHANGE. LOOKING TO OUR WEST...REGIONAL RADARS ARE DETECTING THE
FIRST BAND OF SHOWERS THAT WILL ARRIVE IN THE WEST...AND AS
DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES...THESE SHOWERS WILL HAVE A GREATER
CHANCE OF HAVING SOME THUNDER AROUND THE TIME THEY ARRIVE.
CURRENTLY...THAT TIME LOOKS BETWEEN 1100 AM AND NOON. ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
MORNING HOURS JUST IN ADVANCE OF THIS FIRST BAND. THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST STILL LOOK ON TRACK WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
ARRIVING DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...WITH THE GREATEST
FOCUS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA. REGARDING
PRECIPITATION TOTALS....THE LATEST SOLUTION FROM WPC DEPICTS ON
AVERAGE ABOUT ANOTHER QUARTER OF A INCH ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
THAT IS CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTED BY THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...THUS
ADDING GREATER CREDENCE TO THE CONTINUATION OF THE WATCH. NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
FOR PROVISION OF ADDITIONAL UPPER AIR DATA...THERE WILL BE A
SPECIAL 18Z/2PM UPPER AIR WEATHER BALLOON LAUNCH BY THIS
OFFICE...WEATHER PERMITTING.
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...
RADAR INDICATING BANDS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS KENTUCKY THIS
MORNING AS TD BILL MAKES ITS APPROACH UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
RAPID UPDATE WEATHER MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND THE RAP ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE LEADING BANDS WILL ENTER OUR MOUNTAIN EMPIRE/
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES AROUND SUNRISE...BRINGING SPOTTY
SHOWER ACTIVITY. STILL...DEEPER MOISTURE AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER
WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTERNOON...AND BELIEVE WE WILL STILL HAVE
ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT HEATING DURING THE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AS SUCH...STILL EXPECT
SOME SHOWERS TO INTENSIFY INTO THUNDERSTORMS DURING LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON...A FEW OF WHICH WILL BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN
CAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG FOR MUCH OF THE AREA DURING EARLY
AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS INCREASING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TOWARD
EVENING AS THE CENTER OF BILL PASSES ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO.
OUTSIDE OF SEVERE POTENTIAL...BILL WILL ALSO BRING DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACHING 2+ INCHES DURING
THE EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. FACTORING IN OROGRAPHIC LIFT...
BELIEVE WE WILL SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON AVERAGE RANGE FROM 1 TO 1.5
INCHES FOR THE BLUE RIDGE WESTWARD...WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES IN A FEW
SPOTS...ESPECIALLY WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY. FURTHER EAST...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL TAPER DOWN TO AROUND A HALF INCH THE PIEDMONT
OF NORTH CAROLINA. BUT GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OF
THE SYSTEM...COMBINED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF CELLS OVER
THE SAME LOCATIONS...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.
BILL IS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM...AND AS QUICKLY AS IT ARRIVES...WE
WILL SEE RAINFALL BEGIN TO DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER 2 AM SUNDAY AS THE
MAIN ENERGY OF THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST. BY SUNRISE SUNDAY...
SHOULD ONLY SEE SPOTTY UPSLOPE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WESTERN
RIDGES...AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT SATURDAY...
CONSIDERABLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD
AS THE REMNANTS OF T.S. BILL ARE LOCATED IN THE DCA/BWI AREA AT
THE 12Z SUN...RAPIDLY ACCELERATING OFF THE NJ/NY COAST BY SUNDAY
EVENING. NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS FROM BILL THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE
PERIOD WILL BE QUITE UNSETTLED WITH DAILY ROUNDS OF CONVECTION
LIKELY AND INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR NORTHWEST FLOW MCS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. AS A RESULT...THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS TIME FRAME...WITH AN EVEN
GREATER CHANCE FOR SUCH DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
ONCE BILL DEPARTS THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY...THE MEAN JET WILL BE
LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A BROAD
SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE CENTERED IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...BUT
ACTUALLY EXTENDING EASTWARD AND WESTWARD FROM THIS LOCATION ACROSS
ALL SOUTHERN STATES. AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES...RESULTING IN DECREASING
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS VICINITY OF
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL LEAVE OUR REGION AMIDST AN
INCREASINGLY ACTIVE AND UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
FOR SUN/SUN EVENING...A SHORT WAVE WILL BE TRACKING ON THE HEELS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY ON THE HEELS OF THE REMNANTS OF
T.S. BILL. A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY AS THIS DISTURBANCE TRACKS THROUGH. SPC HAS ALREADY
OUTLOOKED A WEST-EAST ORIENTED SLIGHT RISK AREA ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY INTO PA...WITH A MARGINAL RISK SURROUNDING THIS TO THE
SOUTH. IF AN MCS WERE ABLE TO GET GOING AS APPEARS POSSIBLE SUN
AFTERNOON...THE TRAJECTORY WOULD CARRY THE REMNANTS OF THIS
SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION BY EVENING BEFORE IT DISSIPATES AS IT
MOVES TOWARD THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. MAIN THREAT WOULD BE
DAMAGING WINDS AS IS COMMON WITH THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM.
MON APPEARS TO BE THE QUIETEST DAY OF THE SHORT TERM AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TRACKS EAST AND THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL U.S. EXTENDS BRIEFLY EASTWARD TUE-WED. HOWEVER...A
WEAK REMNANT BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SW/SC/SE PART
OF THE CWA AND COULD WELL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...THUS HAVE INDICATED CHANCE POPS
IN THIS AREA AS A RESULT...WITH LOWER POPS TO THE NORTH.
TUE PROMISES TO BE MORE ACTIVE AS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TRACKS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NE STATES AS UPPER HEIGHTS LOWER
IN RESPONSE TO THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE IN THE WESTERN U.S.
AGAIN...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THE OH VALLEY WILL
HAVE THE CHANCE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE OF DOING SO TUE THAN
ON SUN.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN FOR HEAT DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WITH
WESTERLY SFC FLOW AND THE UPPER RIDGE JUST TO OUR SOUTH...POCKETS
OF +20 TO +22C CREEP INTO MUCH OF THE CWA SUN-TUE...BUT ON
TUE...EVEN POCKETS OF +25C CREEP INTO THE PIEDMONT PER GFS...ONLY
+23 ON THE ECMWF/CANADIAN. THIS WILL CERTAINLY SUPPORT
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S...UPPER 90S PIEDMONT. AS OF
NOW...HEIGHT INDICES REMAIN BELOW 100...BUT LATER RUNS OF THE
MODELS MAY DICTATE THE NEED TO CONSIDER HEAT ADVISORIES ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...ESPECIALLY TUE. AT ANY RATE...IT WILL BE HOT AND HUMID
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. ANY SIGNIFICANT COOLING WILL HAVE TO WAIT
UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S...WHICH IS
NOT PROGGED TO TAKE PLACE UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH ON
MAX TEMPS...OPTING NOT TO ADVERTISE THE UPPER 90 TO LOW 100
READINGS INDICATED BY THE GFS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT SATURDAY...
UNSTABLE PATTERN AND POTENTIAL FOR MCS THUNDERSTORM SYSTEMS
INCREASES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHS
ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER FLOW
WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S. BY NEXT WEEKEND AND AN EQUALLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH
EXPECTED TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN U.S...WELL
INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES IN FACT. THIS COULD EVENTUALLY SERVE TO
PUSH THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM THREAT FURTHER SOUTH INTO
AL/GA/SC/FL WITH TIME...BUT FOR THIS TIME FRAME...WE WILL BE
PRETTY MUCH CENTERED RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF A VERY ACTIVE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. ALL MODELS BROAD BRUSH HIGH POPS/QPF ACROSS THE
REGION WITH DAILY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH
THE GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE WEST. REALLY CANT ARGUE WITH THIS
GIVEN THE PATTERN. THUS...HAVE ADVERTISED CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE
POPS AND IN A FEW CASES 60 PERCENT POPS EACH DAY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH A DEFINITE DIURNAL SWING TO THE POPS...HIGHEST IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENINGS DURING PEAK HEATING.
WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...WE SHOULD SEE A VERY SLOW COOLING
TREND AS UPPER HEIGHTS LOWER DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN
RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING EASTERN U.S. TROUGH AS WELL AS
INCREASING CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. 850MB TEMPS SHOULD FINALLY DROP
BELOW +20C BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE POCKET OF +20C AND
GREATER 850MB TEMPS SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATE. IT
WILL REMAIN VERY HUMID...HOWEVER...WITH DEWPOINTS HOVERING NEAR 70
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD UNTIL THE WEEKEND...WHEN THEY SHOULD DROP
BACK A FEW DEGREES INTO THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT SATURDAY...
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT THE REMNANTS OF TD BILL WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
BE CONFINED TO BANDS OF ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT
OUTSIDE OF THESE BANDS IS ALSO EXPECTED. OUTSIDE OF THE
CONVECTION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WITHIN THE
CONVECTION...BRIEF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE ANTICIPATED. WIND
SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AND SLOWLY VEER
SW WITH SURFACE GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS EXPECTED.
OVERNIGHT...THE AXIS OF THE TD BILL REMNANTS WILL SHIFT EAST OF
THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE VEER OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO
W-NW BUT CONTINUING TO BE GUSTY. A WINTER-LIKE PATTERN WILL
DEVELOP WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN AN UPSLOPE PATTERN YIELDING
PLENTY OF MVFR CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH POCKETS OF
IFR ALSO EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE IN THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE AREAS
OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF
NORTH CAROLINA.
DRIER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO THE
DAY SUNDAY...FROM THE MID LEVELS AND DOWN. LOW CLOUDS WILL ERODE
AROUND 15Z/11AM SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY...BUT
NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
AVIATION EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND ENTER THE REGION LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ANTICIPATE A RETURN OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MAINLY WESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION...ALONGWITH
POCKETS OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.
THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED...AGAIN PRIMARILY IN THE WEST...THANKS TO ADDITION
NORTHWEST FLOW DISTURBANCES...OR ADDITIONAL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
THAT APPROACH OR MOVE INTO THE AREA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE REMNANT LOW OF ONCE TROPICAL STORM BILL WILL PASS JUST NORTH
OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL COMBINE WITH A RESIDUAL FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TO
POSSIBLY PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY...AND
MORE IN THE WAY OF STEADIER HEAVIER RAINFALL SATURDAY NIGHT OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. A GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS WHERE HEAVIER RATES WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION
OCCURS. THIS LOOKS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE VIRGINIA HIGHLANDS AT THIS POINT.
ALTHOUGH RAINFALL HAS BEEN RATHER SPOTTY IN THE LAST FEW
DAYS...SOME LOCATIONS HAVE RECEIVED AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES MAKING
THOSE AREAS MORE PRONE TO FLOODING. THUS GIVEN THE FORECAST
RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN THAN SEEN OF LATE...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
MANY OF THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES IN VIRGINIA...AND WEST VIRGINIA FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY FOR AT
LEAST LOCALIZED FLOODING.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR VAZ007-009>014-
018>020-022>024.
NC...NONE.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR WVZ042>044-507-
508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...DS/NF
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...JH/RAB
AVIATION...DS
HYDROLOGY...DS/JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1253 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...
WITH HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. WITH THE
SYSTEMS DEPARTURE BY DAWN SUNDAY...ATTENTION TURNS TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHICH WILL BRING NORTHWESTERLY WINDFLOW
ALOFT TO THE MID ATLANTIC. DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT SATURDAY...
THERE WILL BE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN
MADE. A FEW AREAS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE REACHED TEMPERATURES THAT
ARE AT OR A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE THE FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURE.
HOWEVER...THESE SAME LOCATIONS...MAINLY IN THE WEST...ARE IN STORE
FOR PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE RAISED THE EXPECTED HIGHS...BUT BY NOT MUCH
ABOVE THE CURRENT READINGS. SHOWERS HAVE STARTED ARRIVING IN THE
WEST...FROM THE WEST...AND SOME HAVE ALSO STARTED TO
DEVELOP...ALSO IN WESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION. HAVE MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THIS REGION BASED
UPON THE LATEST COVERAGE AND EXPECTED TRENDS THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.
AS OF 950 AM EDT SATURDAY...
THE OVERALL FORECAST FOR TODAY STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. WE WILL BE
MAKING SOME ADJUSTMENTS IN THE NEAR TERM...AND ALSO THE QUANTITY OF
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FIRST ADJUSTMENT IS
THE TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION. NO PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY
BEING DETECTED ON RADAR IN THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CHANGE. LOOKING TO OUR WEST...REGIONAL RADARS ARE DETECTING THE
FIRST BAND OF SHOWERS THAT WILL ARRIVE IN THE WEST...AND AS
DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES...THESE SHOWERS WILL HAVE A GREATER
CHANCE OF HAVING SOME THUNDER AROUND THE TIME THEY ARRIVE.
CURRENTLY...THAT TIME LOOKS BETWEEN 1100 AM AND NOON. ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
MORNING HOURS JUST IN ADVANCE OF THIS FIRST BAND. THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST STILL LOOK ON TRACK WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
ARRIVING DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...WITH THE GREATEST
FOCUS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA. REGARDING
PRECIPITATION TOTALS....THE LATEST SOLUTION FROM WPC DEPICTS ON
AVERAGE ABOUT ANOTHER QUARTER OF A INCH ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
THAT IS CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTED BY THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...THUS
ADDING GREATER CREDENCE TO THE CONTINUATION OF THE WATCH. NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
FOR PROVISION OF ADDITIONAL UPPER AIR DATA...THERE WILL BE A
SPECIAL 18Z/2PM UPPER AIR WEATHER BALLOON LAUNCH BY THIS
OFFICE...WEATHER PERMITTING.
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...
RADAR INDICATING BANDS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS KENTUCKY THIS
MORNING AS TD BILL MAKES ITS APPROACH UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
RAPID UPDATE WEATHER MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND THE RAP ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE LEADING BANDS WILL ENTER OUR MOUNTAIN EMPIRE/
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES AROUND SUNRISE...BRINGING SPOTTY
SHOWER ACTIVITY. STILL...DEEPER MOISTURE AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER
WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTERNOON...AND BELIEVE WE WILL STILL HAVE
ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT HEATING DURING THE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AS SUCH...STILL EXPECT
SOME SHOWERS TO INTENSIFY INTO THUNDERSTORMS DURING LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON...A FEW OF WHICH WILL BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN
CAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG FOR MUCH OF THE AREA DURING EARLY
AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS INCREASING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TOWARD
EVENING AS THE CENTER OF BILL PASSES ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO.
OUTSIDE OF SEVERE POTENTIAL...BILL WILL ALSO BRING DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACHING 2+ INCHES DURING
THE EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. FACTORING IN OROGRAPHIC LIFT...
BELIEVE WE WILL SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON AVERAGE RANGE FROM 1 TO 1.5
INCHES FOR THE BLUE RIDGE WESTWARD...WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES IN A FEW
SPOTS...ESPECIALLY WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY. FURTHER EAST...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL TAPER DOWN TO AROUND A HALF INCH THE PIEDMONT
OF NORTH CAROLINA. BUT GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OF
THE SYSTEM...COMBINED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF CELLS OVER
THE SAME LOCATIONS...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.
BILL IS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM...AND AS QUICKLY AS IT ARRIVES...WE
WILL SEE RAINFALL BEGIN TO DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER 2 AM SUNDAY AS THE
MAIN ENERGY OF THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST. BY SUNRISE SUNDAY...
SHOULD ONLY SEE SPOTTY UPSLOPE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WESTERN
RIDGES...AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT SATURDAY...
CONSIDERABLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD
AS THE REMNANTS OF T.S. BILL ARE LOCATED IN THE DCA/BWI AREA AT
THE 12Z SUN...RAPIDLY ACCELERATING OFF THE NJ/NY COAST BY SUNDAY
EVENING. NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS FROM BILL THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE
PERIOD WILL BE QUITE UNSETTLED WITH DAILY ROUNDS OF CONVECTION
LIKELY AND INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR NORTHWEST FLOW MCS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. AS A RESULT...THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS TIME FRAME...WITH AN EVEN
GREATER CHANCE FOR SUCH DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
ONCE BILL DEPARTS THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY...THE MEAN JET WILL BE
LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A BROAD
SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE CENTERED IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...BUT
ACTUALLY EXTENDING EASTWARD AND WESTWARD FROM THIS LOCATION ACROSS
ALL SOUTHERN STATES. AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES...RESULTING IN DECREASING
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS VICINITY OF
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL LEAVE OUR REGION AMIDST AN
INCREASINGLY ACTIVE AND UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
FOR SUN/SUN EVENING...A SHORT WAVE WILL BE TRACKING ON THE HEELS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY ON THE HEELS OF THE REMNANTS OF
T.S. BILL. A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY AS THIS DISTURBANCE TRACKS THROUGH. SPC HAS ALREADY
OUTLOOKED A WEST-EAST ORIENTED SLIGHT RISK AREA ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY INTO PA...WITH A MARGINAL RISK SURROUNDING THIS TO THE
SOUTH. IF AN MCS WERE ABLE TO GET GOING AS APPEARS POSSIBLE SUN
AFTERNOON...THE TRAJECTORY WOULD CARRY THE REMNANTS OF THIS
SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION BY EVENING BEFORE IT DISSIPATES AS IT
MOVES TOWARD THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. MAIN THREAT WOULD BE
DAMAGING WINDS AS IS COMMON WITH THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM.
MON APPEARS TO BE THE QUIETEST DAY OF THE SHORT TERM AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TRACKS EAST AND THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL U.S. EXTENDS BRIEFLY EASTWARD TUE-WED. HOWEVER...A
WEAK REMNANT BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SW/SC/SE PART
OF THE CWA AND COULD WELL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...THUS HAVE INDICATED CHANCE POPS
IN THIS AREA AS A RESULT...WITH LOWER POPS TO THE NORTH.
TUE PROMISES TO BE MORE ACTIVE AS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TRACKS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NE STATES AS UPPER HEIGHTS LOWER
IN RESPONSE TO THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE IN THE WESTERN U.S.
AGAIN...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THE OH VALLEY WILL
HAVE THE CHANCE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE OF DOING SO TUE THAN
ON SUN.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN FOR HEAT DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WITH
WESTERLY SFC FLOW AND THE UPPER RIDGE JUST TO OUR SOUTH...POCKETS
OF +20 TO +22C CREEP INTO MUCH OF THE CWA SUN-TUE...BUT ON
TUE...EVEN POCKETS OF +25C CREEP INTO THE PIEDMONT PER GFS...ONLY
+23 ON THE ECMWF/CANADIAN. THIS WILL CERTAINLY SUPPORT
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S...UPPER 90S PIEDMONT. AS OF
NOW...HEIGHT INDICES REMAIN BELOW 100...BUT LATER RUNS OF THE
MODELS MAY DICTATE THE NEED TO CONSIDER HEAT ADVISORIES ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...ESPECIALLY TUE. AT ANY RATE...IT WILL BE HOT AND HUMID
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. ANY SIGNIFICANT COOLING WILL HAVE TO WAIT
UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S...WHICH IS
NOT PROGGED TO TAKE PLACE UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH ON
MAX TEMPS...OPTING NOT TO ADVERTISE THE UPPER 90 TO LOW 100
READINGS INDICATED BY THE GFS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT SATURDAY...
UNSTABLE PATTERN AND POTENTIAL FOR MCS THUNDERSTORM SYSTEMS
INCREASES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHS
ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER FLOW
WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S. BY NEXT WEEKEND AND AN EQUALLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH
EXPECTED TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN U.S...WELL
INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES IN FACT. THIS COULD EVENTUALLY SERVE TO
PUSH THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM THREAT FURTHER SOUTH INTO
AL/GA/SC/FL WITH TIME...BUT FOR THIS TIME FRAME...WE WILL BE
PRETTY MUCH CENTERED RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF A VERY ACTIVE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. ALL MODELS BROAD BRUSH HIGH POPS/QPF ACROSS THE
REGION WITH DAILY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH
THE GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE WEST. REALLY CANT ARGUE WITH THIS
GIVEN THE PATTERN. THUS...HAVE ADVERTISED CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE
POPS AND IN A FEW CASES 60 PERCENT POPS EACH DAY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH A DEFINITE DIURNAL SWING TO THE POPS...HIGHEST IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENINGS DURING PEAK HEATING.
WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...WE SHOULD SEE A VERY SLOW COOLING
TREND AS UPPER HEIGHTS LOWER DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN
RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING EASTERN U.S. TROUGH AS WELL AS
INCREASING CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. 850MB TEMPS SHOULD FINALLY DROP
BELOW +20C BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE POCKET OF +20C AND
GREATER 850MB TEMPS SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATE. IT
WILL REMAIN VERY HUMID...HOWEVER...WITH DEWPOINTS HOVERING NEAR 70
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD UNTIL THE WEEKEND...WHEN THEY SHOULD DROP
BACK A FEW DEGREES INTO THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM EDT SATURDAY...
TD BILL APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WITH FEEDER BANDS
ALREADY EVIDENT ACROSS KY/WV AND WESTERN WV. THESE WILL INCREASE
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE.
RAPID UPDATE MODELS INDICATE THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS BILL APPROACHES. BELIEVE
WE WILL SEE ENOUGH HEATING TAKE PLACE BEFORE THE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER ASSOCIATED WITH BILL ARRIVES THAT SOME OF THE SHOWERS WILL
INTENSIFY INTO THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE...WITH PWATS
RAMPING UP TO NEARLY TWO INCHES...COUPLED WITH INCREASING SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY ALOFT...THAT HAVE ENTERED THUNDERSTORMS INTO ALL TAFS
FOR AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG AND
MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. THE MAIN ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH BILL
WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE 21/00Z TO 21/06Z TIMEFRAME...
RESULTING IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH REDUCED CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITY. BILL IS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM...SO CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 21/06Z.
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR LOOKS TO ARRIVE LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT IMPULSES TRACKING SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
MAY BRING A COUPLE ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS AND
POSSIBLE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE REMNANT LOW OF ONCE TROPICAL STORM BILL WILL PASS JUST NORTH
OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL COMBINE WITH A RESIDUAL FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TO
POSSIBLY PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY...AND
MORE IN THE WAY OF STEADIER HEAVIER RAINFALL SATURDAY NIGHT OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. A GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS WHERE HEAVIER RATES WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION
OCCURS. THIS LOOKS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE VIRGINIA HIGHLANDS AT THIS POINT.
ALTHOUGH RAINFALL HAS BEEN RATHER SPOTTY IN THE LAST FEW
DAYS...SOME LOCATIONS HAVE RECEIVED AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES MAKING
THOSE AREAS MORE PRONE TO FLOODING. THUS GIVEN THE FORECAST
RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN THAN SEEN OF LATE...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
MANY OF THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES IN VIRGINIA...AND WEST VIRGINIA FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY FOR AT
LEAST LOCALIZED FLOODING.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR VAZ007-009>014-
018>020-022>024.
NC...NONE.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR WVZ042>044-507-
508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...DS/NF
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...JH/RAB
AVIATION...DS
HYDROLOGY...DS/JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1005 AM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...
WITH HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. WITH THE
SYSTEMS DEPARTURE BY DAWN SUNDAY...ATTENTION TURNS TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHICH WILL BRING NORTHWESTERLY WINDFLOW
ALOFT TO THE MID ATLANTIC. DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM EDT SATURDAY...
THE OVERALL FORECAST FOR TODAY STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. WE WILL BE
MAKING SOME ADJUSTMENTS IN THE NEAR TERM...AND ALSO THE QUANTITY OF
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FIRST ADJUSTMENT IS
THE TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION. NO PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY
BEING DETECTED ON RADAR IN THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CHANGE. LOOKING TO OUR WEST...REGIONAL RADARS ARE DETECTING THE
FIRST BAND OF SHOWERS THAT WILL ARRIVE IN THE WEST...AND AS
DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES...THESE SHOWERS WILL HAVE A GREATER
CHANCE OF HAVING SOME THUNDER AROUND THE TIME THEY ARRIVE.
CURRENTLY...THAT TIME LOOKS BETWEEN 1100 AM AND NOON. ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
MORNING HOURS JUST IN ADVANCE OF THIS FIRST BAND. THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST STILL LOOK ON TRACK WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
ARRIVING DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...WITH THE GREATEST
FOCUS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA. REGARDING
PRECIPITATION TOTALS....THE LATEST SOLUTION FROM WPC DEPICTS ON
AVERAGE ABOUT ANOTHER QUARTER OF A INCH ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
THAT IS CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTED BY THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...THUS
ADDING GREATER CREDENCE TO THE CONTINUATION OF THE WATCH. NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
FOR PROVISION OF ADDITIONAL UPPER AIR DATA...THERE WILL BE A
SPECIAL 18Z/2PM UPPER AIR WEATHER BALLOON LAUNCH BY THIS
OFFICE...WEATHER PERMITTING.
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...
RADAR INDICATING BANDS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS KENTUCKY THIS
MORNING AS TD BILL MAKES ITS APPROACH UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
RAPID UPDATE WEATHER MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND THE RAP ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE LEADING BANDS WILL ENTER OUR MOUNTAIN EMPIRE/
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES AROUND SUNRISE...BRINGING SPOTTY
SHOWER ACTIVITY. STILL...DEEPER MOISTURE AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER
WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTERNOON...AND BELIEVE WE WILL STILL HAVE
ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT HEATING DURING THE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AS SUCH...STILL EXPECT
SOME SHOWERS TO INTENSIFY INTO THUNDERSTORMS DURING LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON...A FEW OF WHICH WILL BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN
CAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG FOR MUCH OF THE AREA DURING EARLY
AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS INCREASING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TOWARD
EVENING AS THE CENTER OF BILL PASSES ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO.
OUTSIDE OF SEVERE POTENTIAL...BILL WILL ALSO BRING DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACHING 2+ INCHES DURING
THE EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. FACTORING IN OROGRAPHIC LIFT...
BELIEVE WE WILL SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON AVERAGE RANGE FROM 1 TO 1.5
INCHES FOR THE BLUE RIDGE WESTWARD...WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES IN A FEW
SPOTS...ESPECIALLY WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY. FURTHER EAST...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL TAPER DOWN TO AROUND A HALF INCH THE PIEDMONT
OF NORTH CAROLINA. BUT GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OF
THE SYSTEM...COMBINED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF CELLS OVER
THE SAME LOCATIONS...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.
BILL IS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM...AND AS QUICKLY AS IT ARRIVES...WE
WILL SEE RAINFALL BEGIN TO DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER 2 AM SUNDAY AS THE
MAIN ENERGY OF THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST. BY SUNRISE SUNDAY...
SHOULD ONLY SEE SPOTTY UPSLOPE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WESTERN
RIDGES...AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT SATURDAY...
CONSIDERABLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD
AS THE REMNANTS OF T.S. BILL ARE LOCATED IN THE DCA/BWI AREA AT
THE 12Z SUN...RAPIDLY ACCELERATING OFF THE NJ/NY COAST BY SUNDAY
EVENING. NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS FROM BILL THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE
PERIOD WILL BE QUITE UNSETTLED WITH DAILY ROUNDS OF CONVECTION
LIKELY AND INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR NORTHWEST FLOW MCS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. AS A RESULT...THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS TIME FRAME...WITH AN EVEN
GREATER CHANCE FOR SUCH DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
ONCE BILL DEPARTS THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY...THE MEAN JET WILL BE
LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A BROAD
SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE CENTERED IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...BUT
ACTUALLY EXTENDING EASTWARD AND WESTWARD FROM THIS LOCATION ACROSS
ALL SOUTHERN STATES. AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES...RESULTING IN DECREASING
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS VICINITY OF
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL LEAVE OUR REGION AMIDST AN
INCREASINGLY ACTIVE AND UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
FOR SUN/SUN EVENING...A SHORT WAVE WILL BE TRACKING ON THE HEELS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY ON THE HEELS OF THE REMNANTS OF
T.S. BILL. A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY AS THIS DISTURBANCE TRACKS THROUGH. SPC HAS ALREADY
OUTLOOKED A WEST-EAST ORIENTED SLIGHT RISK AREA ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY INTO PA...WITH A MARGINAL RISK SURROUNDING THIS TO THE
SOUTH. IF AN MCS WERE ABLE TO GET GOING AS APPEARS POSSIBLE SUN
AFTERNOON...THE TRAJECTORY WOULD CARRY THE REMNANTS OF THIS
SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION BY EVENING BEFORE IT DISSIPATES AS IT
MOVES TOWARD THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. MAIN THREAT WOULD BE
DAMAGING WINDS AS IS COMMON WITH THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM.
MON APPEARS TO BE THE QUIETEST DAY OF THE SHORT TERM AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TRACKS EAST AND THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL U.S. EXTENDS BRIEFLY EASTWARD TUE-WED. HOWEVER...A
WEAK REMNANT BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SW/SC/SE PART
OF THE CWA AND COULD WELL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...THUS HAVE INDICATED CHANCE POPS
IN THIS AREA AS A RESULT...WITH LOWER POPS TO THE NORTH.
TUE PROMISES TO BE MORE ACTIVE AS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TRACKS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NE STATES AS UPPER HEIGHTS LOWER
IN RESPONSE TO THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE IN THE WESTERN U.S.
AGAIN...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THE OH VALLEY WILL
HAVE THE CHANCE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE OF DOING SO TUE THAN
ON SUN.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN FOR HEAT DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WITH
WESTERLY SFC FLOW AND THE UPPER RIDGE JUST TO OUR SOUTH...POCKETS
OF +20 TO +22C CREEP INTO MUCH OF THE CWA SUN-TUE...BUT ON
TUE...EVEN POCKETS OF +25C CREEP INTO THE PIEDMONT PER GFS...ONLY
+23 ON THE ECMWF/CANADIAN. THIS WILL CERTAINLY SUPPORT
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S...UPPER 90S PIEDMONT. AS OF
NOW...HEIGHT INDICES REMAIN BELOW 100...BUT LATER RUNS OF THE
MODELS MAY DICTATE THE NEED TO CONSIDER HEAT ADVISORIES ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...ESPECIALLY TUE. AT ANY RATE...IT WILL BE HOT AND HUMID
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. ANY SIGNIFICANT COOLING WILL HAVE TO WAIT
UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S...WHICH IS
NOT PROGGED TO TAKE PLACE UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH ON
MAX TEMPS...OPTING NOT TO ADVERTISE THE UPPER 90 TO LOW 100
READINGS INDICATED BY THE GFS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT SATURDAY...
UNSTABLE PATTERN AND POTENTIAL FOR MCS THUNDERSTORM SYSTEMS
INCREASES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHS
ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER FLOW
WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S. BY NEXT WEEKEND AND AN EQUALLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH
EXPECTED TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN U.S...WELL
INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES IN FACT. THIS COULD EVENTUALLY SERVE TO
PUSH THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM THREAT FURTHER SOUTH INTO
AL/GA/SC/FL WITH TIME...BUT FOR THIS TIME FRAME...WE WILL BE
PRETTY MUCH CENTERED RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF A VERY ACTIVE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. ALL MODELS BROAD BRUSH HIGH POPS/QPF ACROSS THE
REGION WITH DAILY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH
THE GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE WEST. REALLY CANT ARGUE WITH THIS
GIVEN THE PATTERN. THUS...HAVE ADVERTISED CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE
POPS AND IN A FEW CASES 60 PERCENT POPS EACH DAY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH A DEFINITE DIURNAL SWING TO THE POPS...HIGHEST IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENINGS DURING PEAK HEATING.
WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...WE SHOULD SEE A VERY SLOW COOLING
TREND AS UPPER HEIGHTS LOWER DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN
RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING EASTERN U.S. TROUGH AS WELL AS
INCREASING CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. 850MB TEMPS SHOULD FINALLY DROP
BELOW +20C BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE POCKET OF +20C AND
GREATER 850MB TEMPS SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATE. IT
WILL REMAIN VERY HUMID...HOWEVER...WITH DEWPOINTS HOVERING NEAR 70
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD UNTIL THE WEEKEND...WHEN THEY SHOULD DROP
BACK A FEW DEGREES INTO THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM EDT SATURDAY...
TD BILL APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WITH FEEDER BANDS
ALREADY EVIDENT ACROSS KY/WV AND WESTERN WV. THESE WILL INCREASE
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE.
RAPID UPDATE MODELS INDICATE THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS BILL APPROACHES. BELIEVE
WE WILL SEE ENOUGH HEATING TAKE PLACE BEFORE THE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER ASSOCIATED WITH BILL ARRIVES THAT SOME OF THE SHOWERS WILL
INTENSIFY INTO THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE...WITH PWATS
RAMPING UP TO NEARLY TWO INCHES...COUPLED WITH INCREASING SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY ALOFT...THAT HAVE ENTERED THUNDERSTORMS INTO ALL TAFS
FOR AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG AND
MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. THE MAIN ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH BILL
WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE 21/00Z TO 21/06Z TIMEFRAME...
RESULTING IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH REDUCED CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITY. BILL IS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM...SO CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 21/06Z.
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR LOOKS TO ARRIVE LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT IMPULSES TRACKING SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
MAY BRING A COUPLE ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS AND
POSSIBLE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE REMNANT LOW OF ONCE TROPICAL STORM BILL WILL PASS JUST NORTH
OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL COMBINE WITH A RESIDUAL FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TO
POSSIBLY PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY...AND
MORE IN THE WAY OF STEADIER HEAVIER RAINFALL SATURDAY NIGHT OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. A GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS WHERE HEAVIER RATES WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION
OCCURS. THIS LOOKS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE VIRGINIA HIGHLANDS AT THIS POINT.
ALTHOUGH RAINFALL HAS BEEN RATHER SPOTTY IN THE LAST FEW
DAYS...SOME LOCATIONS HAVE RECEIVED AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES MAKING
THOSE AREAS MORE PRONE TO FLOODING. THUS GIVEN THE FORECAST
RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN THAN SEEN OF LATE...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
MANY OF THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES IN VIRGINIA...AND WEST VIRGINIA FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY FOR AT
LEAST LOCALIZED FLOODING.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR VAZ007-009>014-
018>020-022>024.
NC...NONE.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR WVZ042>044-507-
508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...DS/NF
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...JH/RAB
AVIATION...AMS/NF/WP
HYDROLOGY...DS/JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
745 AM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...
WITH HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. WITH THE
SYSTEMS DEPARTURE BY DAWN SUNDAY...ATTENTION TURNS TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHICH WILL BRING NORTHWESTERLY WINDFLOW
ALOFT TO THE MID ATLANTIC. DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...
RADAR INDICATING BANDS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS KENTUCKY THIS
MORNING AS TD BILL MAKES ITS APPROACH UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
RAPID UPDATE WEATHER MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND THE RAP ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE LEADING BANDS WILL ENTER OUR MOUNTAIN EMPIRE/
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES AROUND SUNRISE...BRINGING SPOTTY
SHOWER ACTIVITY. STILL...DEEPER MOISTURE AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER
WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTERNOON...AND BELIEVE WE WILL STILL HAVE
ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT HEATING DURING THE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AS SUCH...STILL EXPECT
SOME SHOWERS TO INTENSIFY INTO THUNDERSTORMS DURING LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON...A FEW OF WHICH WILL BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN
CAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG FOR MUCH OF THE AREA DURING EARLY
AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS INCREASING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TOWARD
EVENING AS THE CENTER OF BILL PASSES ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO.
OUTSIDE OF SEVERE POTENTIAL...BILL WILL ALSO BRING DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACHING 2+ INCHES DURING
THE EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. FACTORING IN OROGRAPHIC LIFT...
BELIEVE WE WILL SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON AVERAGE RANGE FROM 1 TO 1.5
INCHES FOR THE BLUE RIDGE WESTWARD...WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES IN A FEW
SPOTS...ESPECIALLY WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY. FURTHER EAST...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL TAPER DOWN TO AROUND A HALF INCH THE PIEDMONT
OF NORTH CAROLINA. BUT GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OF
THE SYSTEM...COMBINED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF CELLS OVER
THE SAME LOCATIONS...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.
BILL IS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM...AND AS QUICKLY AS IT ARRIVES...WE
WILL SEE RAINFALL BEGIN TO DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER 2 AM SUNDAY AS THE
MAIN ENERGY OF THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST. BY SUNRISE SUNDAY...
SHOULD ONLY SEE SPOTTY UPSLOPE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WESTERN
RIDGES...AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT SATURDAY...
CONSIDERABLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD
AS THE REMNANTS OF T.S. BILL ARE LOCATED IN THE DCA/BWI AREA AT
THE 12Z SUN...RAPIDLY ACCELERATING OFF THE NJ/NY COAST BY SUNDAY
EVENING. NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS FROM BILL THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE
PERIOD WILL BE QUITE UNSETTLED WITH DAILY ROUNDS OF CONVECTION
LIKELY AND INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR NORTHWEST FLOW MCS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. AS A RESULT...THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS TIME FRAME...WITH AN EVEN
GREATER CHANCE FOR SUCH DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
ONCE BILL DEPARTS THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY...THE MEAN JET WILL BE
LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A BROAD
SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE CENTERED IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...BUT
ACTUALLY EXTENDING EASTWARD AND WESTWARD FROM THIS LOCATION ACROSS
ALL SOUTHERN STATES. AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES...RESULTING IN DECREASING
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS VICINITY OF
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL LEAVE OUR REGION AMIDST AN
INCREASINGLY ACTIVE AND UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
FOR SUN/SUN EVENING...A SHORT WAVE WILL BE TRACKING ON THE HEELS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY ON THE HEELS OF THE REMNANTS OF
T.S. BILL. A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY AS THIS DISTURBANCE TRACKS THROUGH. SPC HAS ALREADY
OUTLOOKED A WEST-EAST ORIENTED SLIGHT RISK AREA ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY INTO PA...WITH A MARGINAL RISK SURROUNDING THIS TO THE
SOUTH. IF AN MCS WERE ABLE TO GET GOING AS APPEARS POSSIBLE SUN
AFTERNOON...THE TRAJECTORY WOULD CARRY THE REMNANTS OF THIS
SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION BY EVENING BEFORE IT DISSIPATES AS IT
MOVES TOWARD THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. MAIN THREAT WOULD BE
DAMAGING WINDS AS IS COMMON WITH THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM.
MON APPEARS TO BE THE QUIETEST DAY OF THE SHORT TERM AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TRACKS EAST AND THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL U.S. EXTENDS BRIEFLY EASTWARD TUE-WED. HOWEVER...A
WEAK REMNANT BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SW/SC/SE PART
OF THE CWA AND COULD WELL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...THUS HAVE INDICATED CHANCE POPS
IN THIS AREA AS A RESULT...WITH LOWER POPS TO THE NORTH.
TUE PROMISES TO BE MORE ACTIVE AS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TRACKS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NE STATES AS UPPER HEIGHTS LOWER
IN RESPONSE TO THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE IN THE WESTERN U.S.
AGAIN...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THE OH VALLEY WILL
HAVE THE CHANCE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE OF DOING SO TUE THAN
ON SUN.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN FOR HEAT DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WITH
WESTERLY SFC FLOW AND THE UPPER RIDGE JUST TO OUR SOUTH...POCKETS
OF +20 TO +22C CREEP INTO MUCH OF THE CWA SUN-TUE...BUT ON
TUE...EVEN POCKETS OF +25C CREEP INTO THE PIEDMONT PER GFS...ONLY
+23 ON THE ECMWF/CANADIAN. THIS WILL CERTAINLY SUPPORT
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S...UPPER 90S PIEDMONT. AS OF
NOW...HEIGHT INDICES REMAIN BELOW 100...BUT LATER RUNS OF THE
MODELS MAY DICTATE THE NEED TO CONSIDER HEAT ADVISORIES ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...ESPECIALLY TUE. AT ANY RATE...IT WILL BE HOT AND HUMID
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. ANY SIGNIFICANT COOLING WILL HAVE TO WAIT
UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S...WHICH IS
NOT PROGGED TO TAKE PLACE UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH ON
MAX TEMPS...OPTING NOT TO ADVERTISE THE UPPER 90 TO LOW 100
READINGS INDICATED BY THE GFS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT SATURDAY...
UNSTABLE PATTERN AND POTENTIAL FOR MCS THUNDERSTORM SYSTEMS
INCREASES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHS
ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER FLOW
WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S. BY NEXT WEEKEND AND AN EQUALLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH
EXPECTED TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN U.S...WELL
INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES IN FACT. THIS COULD EVENTUALLY SERVE TO
PUSH THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM THREAT FURTHER SOUTH INTO
AL/GA/SC/FL WITH TIME...BUT FOR THIS TIME FRAME...WE WILL BE
PRETTY MUCH CENTERED RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF A VERY ACTIVE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. ALL MODELS BROAD BRUSH HIGH POPS/QPF ACROSS THE
REGION WITH DAILY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH
THE GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE WEST. REALLY CANT ARGUE WITH THIS
GIVEN THE PATTERN. THUS...HAVE ADVERTISED CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE
POPS AND IN A FEW CASES 60 PERCENT POPS EACH DAY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH A DEFINITE DIURNAL SWING TO THE POPS...HIGHEST IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENINGS DURING PEAK HEATING.
WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...WE SHOULD SEE A VERY SLOW COOLING
TREND AS UPPER HEIGHTS LOWER DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN
RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING EASTERN U.S. TROUGH AS WELL AS
INCREASING CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. 850MB TEMPS SHOULD FINALLY DROP
BELOW +20C BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE POCKET OF +20C AND
GREATER 850MB TEMPS SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATE. IT
WILL REMAIN VERY HUMID...HOWEVER...WITH DEWPOINTS HOVERING NEAR 70
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD UNTIL THE WEEKEND...WHEN THEY SHOULD DROP
BACK A FEW DEGREES INTO THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM EDT SATURDAY...
TD BILL APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WITH FEEDER BANDS
ALREADY EVIDENT ACROSS KY/WV AND WESTERN WV. THESE WILL INCREASE
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE.
RAPID UPDATE MODELS INDICATE THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS BILL APPROACHES. BELIEVE
WE WILL SEE ENOUGH HEATING TAKE PLACE BEFORE THE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER ASSOCIATED WITH BILL ARRIVES THAT SOME OF THE SHOWERS WILL
INTENSIFY INTO THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE...WITH PWATS
RAMPING UP TO NEARLY TWO INCHES...COUPLED WITH INCREASING SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY ALOFT...THAT HAVE ENTERED THUNDERSTORMS INTO ALL TAFS
FOR AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG AND
MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. THE MAIN ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH BILL
WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE 21/00Z TO 21/06Z TIMEFRAME...
RESULTING IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH REDUCED CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITY. BILL IS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM...SO CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 21/06Z.
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR LOOKS TO ARRIVE LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT IMPULSES TRACKING SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
MAY BRING A COUPLE ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS AND
POSSIBLE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE REMNANT LOW OF ONCE TROPICAL STORM BILL WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEFORE PASSING
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL COMBINE WITH A RESIDUAL FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS LATER SATURDAY...AND MORE IN THE WAY OF STEADIER HEAVIER
RAINFALL SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE MOUNTAINS. A GENERAL 1 TO 3
INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS WHERE
HEAVIER RATES WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION OCCURS. THIS LOOKS MOST
LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AS WELL AS
THE VIRGINIA HIGHLANDS AT THIS POINT. ALTHOUGH RAINFALL HAS BEEN
RATHER SPOTTY IN THE LAST FEW DAYS...SOME LOCATIONS HAVE RECEIVED
AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES MAKING THOSE AREAS MORE PRONE TO FLOODING.
THUS GIVEN THE FORECAST RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR MUCH MORE
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN THAN SEEN OF LATE...A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MANY OF THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES IN
VIRGINIA...AND WEST VIRGINIA FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY FOR AT LEAST LOCALIZED FLOODING.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR VAZ007-009>014-018>020-022>024.
NC...NONE.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR WVZ042>044-507-508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...JH/RAB
AVIATION...AMS/NF/WP
HYDROLOGY...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
454 AM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...
WITH HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. WITH THE
SYSTEMS DEPARTURE BY DAWN SUNDAY...ATTENTION TURNS TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHICH WILL BRING NORTHWESTERLY WINDFLOW
ALOFT TO THE MID ATLANTIC. DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...
RADAR INDICATING BANDS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS KENTUCKY THIS
MORNING AS TD BILL MAKES ITS APPROACH UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
RAPID UPDATE WEATHER MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND THE RAP ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE LEADING BANDS WILL ENTER OUR MOUNTAIN EMPIRE/
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES AROUND SUNRISE...BRINGING SPOTTY
SHOWER ACTIVITY. STILL...DEEPER MOISTURE AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER
WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTERNOON...AND BELIEVE WE WILL STILL HAVE
ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT HEATING DURING THE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AS SUCH...STILL EXPECT
SOME SHOWERS TO INTENSIFY INTO THUNDERSTORMS DURING LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON...A FEW OF WHICH WILL BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN
CAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG FOR MUCH OF THE AREA DURING EARLY
AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS INCREASING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TOWARD
EVENING AS THE CENTER OF BILL PASSES ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO.
OUTSIDE OF SEVERE POTENTIAL...BILL WILL ALSO BRING DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACHING 2+ INCHES DURING
THE EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. FACTORING IN OROGRAPHIC LIFT...
BELIEVE WE WILL SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON AVERAGE RANGE FROM 1 TO 1.5
INCHES FOR THE BLUE RIDGE WESTWARD...WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES IN A FEW
SPOTS...ESPECIALLY WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY. FURTHER EAST...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL TAPER DOWN TO AROUND A HALF INCH THE PIEDMONT
OF NORTH CAROLINA. BUT GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OF
THE SYSTEM...COMBINED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF CELLS OVER
THE SAME LOCATIONS...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.
BILL IS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM...AND AS QUICKLY AS IT ARRIVES...WE
WILL SEE RAINFALL BEGIN TO DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER 2 AM SUNDAY AS THE
MAIN ENERGY OF THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST. BY SUNRISE SUNDAY...
SHOULD ONLY SEE SPOTTY UPSLOPE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WESTERN
RIDGES...AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT SATURDAY...
CONSIDERABLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD
AS THE REMNANTS OF T.S. BILL ARE LOCATED IN THE DCA/BWI AREA AT
THE 12Z SUN...RAPIDLY ACCELERATING OFF THE NJ/NY COAST BY SUNDAY
EVENING. NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS FROM BILL THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE
PERIOD WILL BE QUITE UNSETTLED WITH DAILY ROUNDS OF CONVECTION
LIKELY AND INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR NORTHWEST FLOW MCS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. AS A RESULT...THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS TIME FRAME...WITH AN EVEN
GREATER CHANCE FOR SUCH DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
ONCE BILL DEPARTS THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY...THE MEAN JET WILL BE
LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A BROAD
SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE CENTERED IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...BUT
ACTUALLY EXTENDING EASTWARD AND WESTWARD FROM THIS LOCATION ACROSS
ALL SOUTHERN STATES. AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES...RESULTING IN DECREASING
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS VICINITY OF
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL LEAVE OUR REGION AMIDST AN
INCREASINGLY ACTIVE AND UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
FOR SUN/SUN EVENING...A SHORT WAVE WILL BE TRACKING ON THE HEELS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY ON THE HEELS OF THE REMNANTS OF
T.S. BILL. A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY AS THIS DISTURBANCE TRACKS THROUGH. SPC HAS ALREADY
OUTLOOKED A WEST-EAST ORIENTED SLIGHT RISK AREA ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY INTO PA...WITH A MARGINAL RISK SURROUNDING THIS TO THE
SOUTH. IF AN MCS WERE ABLE TO GET GOING AS APPEARS POSSIBLE SUN
AFTERNOON...THE TRAJECTORY WOULD CARRY THE REMNANTS OF THIS
SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION BY EVENING BEFORE IT DISSIPATES AS IT
MOVES TOWARD THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. MAIN THREAT WOULD BE
DAMAGING WINDS AS IS COMMON WITH THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM.
MON APPEARS TO BE THE QUIETEST DAY OF THE SHORT TERM AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TRACKS EAST AND THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL U.S. EXTENDS BRIEFLY EASTWARD TUE-WED. HOWEVER...A
WEAK REMNANT BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SW/SC/SE PART
OF THE CWA AND COULD WELL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...THUS HAVE INDICATED CHANCE POPS
IN THIS AREA AS A RESULT...WITH LOWER POPS TO THE NORTH.
TUE PROMISES TO BE MORE ACTIVE AS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TRACKS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NE STATES AS UPPER HEIGHTS LOWER
IN RESPONSE TO THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE IN THE WESTERN U.S.
AGAIN...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THE OH VALLEY WILL
HAVE THE CHANCE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE OF DOING SO TUE THAN
ON SUN.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN FOR HEAT DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WITH
WESTERLY SFC FLOW AND THE UPPER RIDGE JUST TO OUR SOUTH...POCKETS
OF +20 TO +22C CREEP INTO MUCH OF THE CWA SUN-TUE...BUT ON
TUE...EVEN POCKETS OF +25C CREEP INTO THE PIEDMONT PER GFS...ONLY
+23 ON THE ECMWF/CANADIAN. THIS WILL CERTAINLY SUPPORT
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S...UPPER 90S PIEDMONT. AS OF
NOW...HEIGHT INDICES REMAIN BELOW 100...BUT LATER RUNS OF THE
MODELS MAY DICTATE THE NEED TO CONSIDER HEAT ADVISORIES ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...ESPECIALLY TUE. AT ANY RATE...IT WILL BE HOT AND HUMID
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. ANY SIGNIFICANT COOLING WILL HAVE TO WAIT
UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S...WHICH IS
NOT PROGGED TO TAKE PLACE UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH ON
MAX TEMPS...OPTING NOT TO ADVERTISE THE UPPER 90 TO LOW 100
READINGS INDICATED BY THE GFS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT SATURDAY...
UNSTABLE PATTERN AND POTENTIAL FOR MCS THUNDERSTORM SYSTEMS
INCREASES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHS
ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER FLOW
WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S. BY NEXT WEEKEND AND AN EQUALLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH
EXPECTED TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN U.S...WELL
INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES IN FACT. THIS COULD EVENTUALLY SERVE TO
PUSH THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM THREAT FURTHER SOUTH INTO
AL/GA/SC/FL WITH TIME...BUT FOR THIS TIME FRAME...WE WILL BE
PRETTY MUCH CENTERED RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF A VERY ACTIVE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. ALL MODELS BROAD BRUSH HIGH POPS/QPF ACROSS THE
REGION WITH DAILY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH
THE GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE WEST. REALLY CANT ARGUE WITH THIS
GIVEN THE PATTERN. THUS...HAVE ADVERTISED CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE
POPS AND IN A FEW CASES 60 PERCENT POPS EACH DAY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH A DEFINITE DIURNAL SWING TO THE POPS...HIGHEST IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENINGS DURING PEAK HEATING.
WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...WE SHOULD SEE A VERY SLOW COOLING
TREND AS UPPER HEIGHTS LOWER DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN
RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING EASTERN U.S. TROUGH AS WELL AS
INCREASING CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. 850MB TEMPS SHOULD FINALLY DROP
BELOW +20C BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE POCKET OF +20C AND
GREATER 850MB TEMPS SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATE. IT
WILL REMAIN VERY HUMID...HOWEVER...WITH DEWPOINTS HOVERING NEAR 70
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD UNTIL THE WEEKEND...WHEN THEY SHOULD DROP
BACK A FEW DEGREES INTO THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT SATURDAY...
SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PASS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT
AS TD BILL APPROACHES UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WILL SEE A FEW
POCKETS OF FOG DEVELOP AND POSSIBLY LOW CLOUDS. ANY FOG WILL BURN
OFF QUICKLY SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
RAPID UPDATE MODELS INDICATE THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS BILL APPROACHES. BELIEVE
WE WILL SEE ENOUGH HEATING TAKE PLACE BEFORE THE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER ASSOCIATED WITH BILL ARRIVES THAT SOME OF THE SHOWERS WILL
INTENSIFY INTO THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE...WITH PWATS
RAMPING UP TO NEARLY TWO INCHES...COUPLED WITH INCREASING SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY ALOFT...THAT HAVE ENTERED THUNDERSTORMS INTO ALL TAFS
FOR AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG AND
MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. THE MAIN ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH BILL
WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE 21/00Z TO 21/06Z TIMEFRAME...
RESULTING IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH REDUCED CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITY. BILL IS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM...SO CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 21/06Z.
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR LOOKS TO ARRIVE LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT IMPULSES TRACKING SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
MAY BRING A COUPLE ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS AND
POSSIBLE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE REMNANT LOW OF ONCE TROPICAL STORM BILL WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEFORE PASSING
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL COMBINE WITH A RESIDUAL FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS LATER SATURDAY...AND MORE IN THE WAY OF STEADIER HEAVIER
RAINFALL SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE MOUNTAINS. A GENERAL 1 TO 3
INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS WHERE
HEAVIER RATES WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION OCCURS. THIS LOOKS MOST
LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AS WELL AS
THE VIRGINIA HIGHLANDS AT THIS POINT. ALTHOUGH RAINFALL HAS BEEN
RATHER SPOTTY IN THE LAST FEW DAYS...SOME LOCATIONS HAVE RECEIVED
AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES MAKING THOSE AREAS MORE PRONE TO FLOODING.
THUS GIVEN THE FORECAST RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR MUCH MORE
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN THAN SEEN OF LATE...A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MANY OF THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES IN
VIRGINIA...AND WEST VIRGINIA FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY FOR AT LEAST LOCALIZED FLOODING.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR VAZ007-009>014-018>020-022>024.
NC...NONE.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR WVZ042>044-507-508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...JH/RAB
AVIATION...AMS/NF/WP
HYDROLOGY...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
842 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
.UPDATE...
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES ALONG THE STATELINE. SOME ACTIVITY STILL
LINGERS AT MID EVENING OVER SOUTHERN ROCK OVER KENOSHA COUNTY AND
THIS WILL STEADILY DIMINISH AND SHIFT SOUTH OF WISCONSIN THIS
EVENING. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. THE APPROACHING SFC COLD FRONT HAS SOME SHOWERS WITH
IT EAST NORTHEAST OF LA CROSSE...BUT THEY ARE DISSIPATING. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS WELL. CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT
SOME SHOWERS AS THE FRONT LIMPS THROUGH THE AREA...BUT THE
GUIDANCE SAYS IT SHOULD STAY DRY...SO WILL GO THAT ROUTE.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
A LIGHT FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH LINGERING HIGH DEWPOINTS TO RAISE
THE RISK OF SOME FOG OVERNIGHT...3 TO 5 MILE STUFF. WE MAY EVEN
SEE SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOP FOR A FEW HOURS JUST PRIOR TO AND FOR A
FEW HOURS POST SUNRISE SUNDAY OVER MAINLY SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015/
SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
CURRENT CONVECTION OVER LAFAYETTE COUNTY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EAST SOUTHEAST...POSSIBLY CLIPPING THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES TO THE
EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IT MAY END UP SLIDING MORE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND MISSING THESE AREAS. HAVE HIGHER END POPS TO COVER
THIS. ALSO MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THIS CONVECTION WAS ELEVATED IN NATURE...DRIVEN BY LOW LEVEL JET
WHICH WAS TAPPING ELEVATED CAPES UP TO 1200 J/KG OR SO. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS AROUND 50 KNOTS...THOUGH EFFECTIVE LAYER SHEAR IS NOT AS
STRONG. STILL COULD SEE SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS. STILL THINKING THE SEVERE CONVECTION WILL REMAIN OVER
EASTERN IOWA INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WHERE SPC DAY 1
SLIGHT/ENHANCED RISK AREA IS LOCATED.
STILL LIKE THE TREND WITH THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS...WITH MORE
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING...AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS AND LOW PRESSURE/COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH.
ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARD TO REFLECT MORE SCATTERED NATURE OF
CONVECTION THROUGH THIS EVENING.
QUIET WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA. NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS ARE OVERDONE
WITH DEW POINTS DURING THIS TIME...WITH RESULT IN BOGUS MEAN LAYER
CAPES. SHOULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH PATCHY FOG. THINGS SHOULD MIX OUT BY AFTERNOON AT THE
LATEST...WITH LOWER TO MID 80S INLAND. ONSHORE WINDS SHOULD KEEP
LAKESHORE AREAS COOLER.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST SUN NT WITH LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING
OVER THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z MON. THE ONSET OF LOW TO MID
LEVEL WARM...MOIST ADVECTION WILL BRING SMALL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/TSTORMS TO THE WRN CWA BEFORE 12Z. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL WI ON MON
WITH A 1000 MB LOW REACHING NE WI OR ADJACENT UPPER MI BY 00Z TUE.
STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM...MOIST ADVECTION ON A DEVELOPING LLJ
IS EXPECTED FOR MON WITH THE NRN CWA AND CENTRAL WI EXPECTED TO
SEE REPEATED ROUNDS OF TSTORMS. A STRONG N-S MLCAPE GRADIENT WILL
SET UP OVER THE SRN HALF OF WI WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER AND LOW
LEVEL SHEAR AS A 70 KT 500 MB WIND MAXIMUM MOVES EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL WI. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER MLCAPE
VALUES CAN CLIMB ABOVE 1000 J/KG. A SLIGHT TO ENHANCED RISK IS
CURRENTLY FCST BY SPC. SOME SVR STORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR EVEN WITH
LOW CAPE GIVEN THE LIFT AND STRONG WIND SHEAR BUT HIGHER CAPE
VALUES WOULD INCREASE THE PROBABILITIES OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SVR
STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT
FLASH FLOODING TOWARD CENTRAL WI DUE TO REPEATED ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION AND PWS OF 1.5-1.7 INCHES. THE CONVECTION AND SVR
POTENTIAL WILL CARRY INTO MON EVE WITH THE COLD FROPA. NWLY SFC
WINDS TO FOLLOW INTO TUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO WI
LATER ON TUE.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.
CHANCES OF TSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR WED AND THU WITH A WEST TO
EAST FRONT LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTH AND AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM CANADA FOR THU. SLIGHT CHANCES OF
THUNDER TO FOLLOW FOR FRI BUT HIGHER FOR SAT AS ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH DIGS SEWD FROM CANADA INTO WI AND IL. SEASONAL TEMPS
EXPECTED FOR THE WEEK.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. FOR
NOW...WILL USE VICINITY THUNDER WORDING IN TAFS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
WITH AREAL COVERAGE. MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY
STORMS. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT MADISON AND WAUKESHA...WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS POSSIBLE AT MILWAUKEE AND KENOSHA INTO THE EARLY
EVENING.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AND REMAIN WEST
NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. SHOULD SEE AN AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS AT TAF
SITES LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH MVFR
VISIBILITIES WITH LIGHT FOG. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
MARINE...
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO LINGER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH DEW
POINTS JUST HIGH ENOUGH OVER THE LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPERATURES.
NOT EXPECTING ANY DENSE FOG AT THIS TIME.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DAVIS
TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GEHRING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
407 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
CURRENT CONVECTION OVER LAFAYETTE COUNTY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EAST SOUTHEAST...POSSIBLY CLIPPING THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES TO THE
EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IT MAY END UP SLIDING MORE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND MISSING THESE AREAS. HAVE HIGHER END POPS TO COVER
THIS. ALSO MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THIS CONVECTION WAS ELEVATED IN NATURE...DRIVEN BY LOW LEVEL JET
WHICH WAS TAPPING ELEVATED CAPES UP TO 1200 J/KG OR SO. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS AROUND 50 KNOTS...THOUGH EFFECTIVE LAYER SHEAR IS NOT AS
STRONG. STILL COULD SEE SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS. STILL THINKING THE SEVERE CONVECTION WILL REMAIN OVER
EASTERN IOWA INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WHERE SPC DAY 1
SLIGHT/ENHANCED RISK AREA IS LOCATED.
STILL LIKE THE TREND WITH THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS...WITH MORE
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING...AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS AND LOW PRESSURE/COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH.
ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARD TO REFLECT MORE SCATTERED NATURE OF
CONVECTION THROUGH THIS EVENING.
QUIET WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA. NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS ARE OVERDONE
WITH DEW POINTS DURING THIS TIME...WITH RESULT IN BOGUS MEAN LAYER
CAPES. SHOULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH PATCHY FOG. THINGS SHOULD MIX OUT BY AFTERNOON AT THE
LATEST...WITH LOWER TO MID 80S INLAND. ONSHORE WINDS SHOULD KEEP
LAKESHORE AREAS COOLER.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST SUN NT WITH LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING
OVER THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z MON. THE ONSET OF LOW TO MID
LEVEL WARM...MOIST ADVECTION WILL BRING SMALL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/TSTORMS TO THE WRN CWA BEFORE 12Z. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL WI ON MON
WITH A 1000 MB LOW REACHING NE WI OR ADJACENT UPPER MI BY 00Z TUE.
STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM...MOIST ADVECTION ON A DEVELOPING LLJ
IS EXPECTED FOR MON WITH THE NRN CWA AND CENTRAL WI EXPECTED TO
SEE REPEATED ROUNDS OF TSTORMS. A STRONG N-S MLCAPE GRADIENT WILL
SET UP OVER THE SRN HALF OF WI WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER AND LOW
LEVEL SHEAR AS A 70 KT 500 MB WIND MAXIMUM MOVES EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL WI. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER MLCAPE
VALUES CAN CLIMB ABOVE 1000 J/KG. A SLIGHT TO ENHANCED RISK IS
CURRENTLY FCST BY SPC. SOME SVR STORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR EVEN WITH
LOW CAPE GIVEN THE LIFT AND STRONG WIND SHEAR BUT HIGHER CAPE
VALUES WOULD INCREASE THE PROBABILITIES OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SVR
STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT
FLASH FLOODING TOWARD CENTRAL WI DUE TO REPEATED ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION AND PWS OF 1.5-1.7 INCHES. THE CONVECTION AND SVR
POTENTIAL WILL CARRY INTO MON EVE WITH THE COLD FROPA. NWLY SFC
WINDS TO FOLLOW INTO TUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO WI
LATER ON TUE.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.
CHANCES OF TSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR WED AND THU WITH A WEST TO
EAST FRONT LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTH AND AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM CANADA FOR THU. SLIGHT CHANCES OF
THUNDER TO FOLLOW FOR FRI BUT HIGHER FOR SAT AS ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH DIGS SEWD FROM CANADA INTO WI AND IL. SEASONAL TEMPS
EXPECTED FOR THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. FOR
NOW...WILL USE VICINITY THUNDER WORDING IN TAFS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
WITH AREAL COVERAGE. MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY
STORMS. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT MADISON AND WAUKESHA...WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS POSSIBLE AT MILWAUKEE AND KENOSHA INTO THE EARLY
EVENING.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AND REMAIN WEST
NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. SHOULD SEE AN AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS AT TAF
SITES LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH MVFR
VISIBILITIES WITH LIGHT FOG. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO LINGER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH DEW
POINTS JUST HIGH ENOUGH OVER THE LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPERATURES.
NOT EXPECTING ANY DENSE FOG AT THIS TIME.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GEHRING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1152 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
.UPDATE...
SHOULD SEE SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE SPREAD
EAST ACROSS MOST OF THE REST OF SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A GOOD
ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT FROM A WAKE LOW SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA.
COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS. GUSTS ALREADY ENDING IN THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
LIKE THE TREND WITH THE LATEST HRRR MODEL WITH CONVECTIVE TRENDS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. IT HAS MOST OF THE STRONG
TO SEVERE CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN NORTHEAST IOWA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND KEEPING IT SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS
MAKES SENSE...AS THE BEST INSTABILITY AND FORCING FOR UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION FROM THE COLD FRONT ARE IN THAT AREA.
THUS...LATEST SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK HAS BACKED OFF ON THE SLIGHT RISK
TO JUST THE FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. THINK OVERALL SEVERE RISK IS
SMALL IN THE FORECAST AREA.
STILL THINK THERE WILL BE MORE SCATTERED SHOWER AND SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING...AS LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. AMOUNT OF MEAN LAYER CAPE WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH SUN WE
CAN GET. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MOST OF THIS CAPE IS ROOTED
ABOVE 700 MB LEVEL...SO LOW LEVEL CAPE WILL BE MINIMAL. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO MORE SCATTERED TYPE CONVECTION/PRECIPITATION...AND
WILL TREND THE POPS IN THIS DIRECTION.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AT
TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...BEFORE WEAKENING.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...AS MIDDLE
TO HIGH CLOUDS LINGER IN SPOTS. WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTH...THOUGH
MAY REMAIN SOUTHEAST AT MILWAUKEE AND KENOSHA IF LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPS.
LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. FOR
NOW...WILL USE VICINITY THUNDER WORDING IN TAFS DUE TO SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH AREAL COVERAGE. MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES ARE
POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AND REMAIN WEST
NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. SHOULD SEE AN AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS AT TAF
SITES LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH MVFR
VISIBILITIES WITH LIGHT FOG. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GUST BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNOTS FOR AN HOUR OR
TWO...BEFORE DIMINISHING BY MID AFTERNOON. MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENT WAS ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THESE WINDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
MAIN ISSUE REMAINS SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ALL HI-RES/RAPID UPDATE MESO MODELS TAKE CURRENT MCS MOVING
THROUGH ERN SOUTH DAKOTA ACROSS SRN MINNESOTA/NRN IOWA AND THEN
DIURNALLY WEAKEN IT BY MID-MORNING. ACCOUNTED FOR PCPN FROM THE MCS
REMAINS MOVING INTO WESTERN CWA MID TO LATE MORNING.
KEY TO EXTENT OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IS WHERE COLD POOL AND DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM MCS ALLOW
EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT TO SET UP. STRONG 500 MB FLOW CONTRIBUTES TO 0-
6KM BULK SHEAR IN THE 40-50KT RANGE. MODELS SHOW 850 MB WINDS OF 30
TO 35 KNOTS APPROACHING WESTERN WI AT 18Z THAT HEEL OVER ACROSS THE
SOUTH THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. IF DEBRIS
CLOUDS NOT TOO EXTENSIVE...THIS WILL BRING SURFACE TEMPS UP INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS HOLDING HIGHS INT EH
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S NEAR THE LAKE. CAPE VALUES IN THE 1200 TO 1500
J/KG RANGE.
4 KM SPC WRF...ARW...NMM AND NAM NEST ALL SHOW REDEVELOPMENT OVER
EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN IOWA WITH RESULTING MCS SKIMMING FAR SRN WI AS
IT MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS IL. NAM...GFS AND ECMWF SIMILAR WITH
REDEVELOPMENT A BIT FARTHER NORTH THAT WOULD PLACE MORE OF CWA IN A
SEVERE THREAT. WILL FOLLOW BLENDED SOLUTION THAT SUPPORTS SPC SLIGHT
RISK ROUGHLY SOUTHWEST OF A DELLS TO PLEASANT PRAIRIE LINE.
MODELS TAKE SHOWERS AND STORMS EAST OF CWA BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z...BUT
RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER/MOISTURE AND LACK OF STRONG COLD ADVECTION
SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S.
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM THAT MOVES THROUGH TODAY...SURFACE TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING DRY
AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IN ALONG WITH IT. HOWEVER...THIS RIDGING WILL
BE SHORT LIVED...PARTICULARLY IN THE LOW LEVELS WHERE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING HOURS AS A SURFACE/850MB LOW PROPAGATES EAST ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG
THE NOSE OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND SURFACE WARM FRONT...WHICH
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ADVANCING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS SURFACE DEW POINTS
START TO CLIMB WITH THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT. WITH THE
INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY...DECENT LOW LEVEL LIFT FROM THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AND STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS/SHEAR...CAN NOT
RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EARLY MONDAY. THE
20.00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF HINT AT MCS DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHERE IN THE
MINNESOTA/IOWA REGION BEFORE TRACKING EAST INTO WISCONSIN LATER
MONDAY MORNING.
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
THE 20.00Z GUIDANCE HAS COME TOGETHER TO PROVIDE A MORE AMPLIFIED
SOLUTION FOR MONDAY WHICH RESULTS IN THE SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT
LIFTING FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. AS IS THE CASE FOR
TODAY...MUCH OF THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL LINGER ON EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION AND HOW MUCH THE SYNOPTIC FLOW CAN ALTER THE
ENVIRONMENT IN ITS WAKE.
A NUMBER OF FAVORABLE FACTORS LOOK TO BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THE 20.00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF
ALL SHOW INCREASING 500MB WINDS AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROPAGATES
EAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING WEST TO
EAST FROM IT AND A COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
IT. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR NORTH THE LOW TRACKS
WITH EACH OF THE THREE MODELS HAVING A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
PLACEMENT OF THE CENTER OF THE LOW BY 00Z TUESDAY. REGARDLESS...THE
TIMING OF THIS FEATURE COMING THROUGH WILL BE IDEAL FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS PATH WILL LIKELY BE
DEPENDENT UPON THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AND WHERE THAT TRACKS
THROUGH. A HIGHLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY THOUGH THE 20.00Z NAM & GFS ARE LIKELY TOO HIGH ON
ITS INSTABILITY DUE TO THEM HAVING SURFACE DEW POINTS BETWEEN 75F
TO 80F. STILL...MODIFIED SOUNDINGS WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS OF
AROUND 70F STILL YIELD A FAT CAPE PROFILE WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN
THE 3000-4000 J/KG RANGE. THE MOST PRIME AREA FOR SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT WHERE THERE
WILL BE MORE DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR TO COMPLIMENT THE STRONG SPEED
SHEAR. 0-1KM WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO BE MAXIMIZED IN THIS WARM FRONT
VICINITY AND WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY POTENTIAL TORNADOES.
WE STILL ARE THREE DAYS OUT AND A LOT CAN CHANGE AS THE EVENT
APPROACHES...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS ONE CLOSELY.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW.
THE BOUNDARY WILL THEN SET UP ACROSS IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS AS
THE SYSTEM TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE MAIN QUESTION
WILL BE WITH HOW FAR NORTH THE BOUNDARY CAN RECOVER THROUGH THE
WEEK IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. GUIDANCE HAS WAVERED BACK AND FORTH
ON WHERE TO PLACE IT...BUT SOME TRENDS APPEAR TO BE FAVORING A
MORE SOUTHERN PLACEMENT. REGARDLESS...IF ANY CONVECTION CAN MAKE
IT INTO THE REGION...IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL AS THE BELT OF STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. SOME HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IS THERE
AS WELL...ESPECIALLY IF THE FRONT DOES NOT MEANDER MUCH OVER THIS
PERIOD.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO START...WITH THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER
MN/NRN IA TO WEAKEN BUT STILL BRING SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA...THOUGH UNCERTAIN IT WILL REACH
KMSN. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT CROSS THE REGION. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A DELLS TO
PLEASANT PRAIRIE LINE...INCLUDING KMSN. ALL TAF SITES WILL LIKELY
SEE STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES...WITH MVFR
CIGS AND VSBYS. MODEL GUIDANCE HINTING AT IFR CIGS DROPPING IN
BEHIND LOW AFTER 06Z THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...BUT WILL TREND WITH GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT KEEP CIGS AT MVFR LEVELS.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
840 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.UPDATE...
A VERY QUIET AND SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT. LOWS ARE ON TRACK TO DIP INTO THE
LOWER AND MID 50S. I CAN/T REALLY OFFER MUCH INSIGHT INTO HOW
THINGS WILL PROGRESS TOMORROW AS MUCH DEPENDS ON HOW THINGS
PROGRESS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
THE CONVECTION OVER SOUTHWEST MN THIS EVENING WILL FADE
QUICKLY...BUT THE LINE OF STORMS OVER THE DAKOTAS IS STILL PROGD
BY THE HRRR TO REACH THE MS RIVER...LIKELY IN A RAPIDLY
DIMINISHING PHASE...BY MID MORNING TOMORROW. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO FIZZLE OUT WITH REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. IT/S
QUITE POSSIBLE THE DEBRIS AND COLD POOL LEFT FROM THE MORNING
ACTIVITY WILL KEEP THE FOCUS FOR NEW CONVECTION MAINLY SOUTH OF
WISCONSIN TOMORROW. BUT...WE CAN/T BE CERTAIN ABOUT IT YET. FOR
THE DETAILS ON THE SETUP...SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z SUN. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INCREASE AT KMSN BY ABOUT 20-21Z SATURDAY AND AROUND 00Z
SUN FOR KMKE/KUES/KENW AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT
APPROACH. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS
MOVING INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LATER SATURDAY EVENING...OR 02-05Z
SUN...IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING COLD FRONT. IT LOOKS LIKE IT MAY
PERSIST INTO SUNDAY MORNING IF IT OCCURS. CONFIDENCE ISN/T VERY
HIGH IN THAT SCENARIO...ESPECIALLY THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015/
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TONIGHT...TAKING HIGH PRESSURE EAST
OF THE REGION. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. MIDDLE TO
HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE...AS DECAYING MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN. LOWS SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS THE AREA...NEAR CONSENSUS OF
SHORT TERM MODELS.
MAIN ISSUE WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION RAMPS UP ON THE
MODELS...BRINGING MID TO UPPER 60S FAHRENHEIT DEW POINTS BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...PER GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF
MODELS. THE NAM IS FURTHER NORTH WITH THE LOW TRACK...WHICH MAY BE
AN OUTLIER SOLUTION.
THIS TREND TO THE SOUTHWEST IS REFLECTED IN THE HRRR MODEL
OUTPUT...WHICH KEEPS BULK OF CONVECTION JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA.
WRF/ARW AND NMM SOLUTIONS KEEP THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA WITHIN
THE LINE OF CONVECTION LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS TRENDS TOWARD THE
LATEST SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK...WHICH HAS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA
IN A SLIGHT RISK.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW STRONG DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR...WITH MEAN
LAYER CAPES DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS LIMIT
DAYTIME HEATING. BULK OF CAPE ABOVE 700 MB LEVEL IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH MODEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AHEAD OF THE LOW AND
FRONT. THUS...SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE FOR SEVERE CONVECTION. KEPT
LIKELY POPS FOR THUNDER ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA BY
LATE AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER POPS TO THE SOUTHEAST. KEPT UPPER 70S
NORTH AND LOWER 80S SOUTH...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES NEAR THE LAKE
WITH A LAKE BREEZE LATE IN THE DAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABOVE MENTIONED SEVERE RISK WILL LIKELY BE
ONGOING BY SATURDAY EVENING...EXITING THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE
EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
TAPERED POPS TO DRY BY LATER IN THE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
IN BEHIND THE FRONT. SHOULD BE DRY SUNDAY UNDER THE HIGH. THERE
WILL BE SOME MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE HIGH SCOOTS EASTWARD...WITH SHOWER/STORM CHANCES RETURNING
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PERSISTING INTO MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH.
SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS NEAR TO A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY WITH TEMPS MONDAY THOUGH GIVEN
THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
LOOKS MAINLY DRY TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY MOVES
THROUGH...THOUGH KEPT SOME LOWER POPS FOR NOW UNTIL MODELS SETTLE
ON THIS SOLUTION.
HAVE SHOWER/STORM CHANCES GOING FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SERIES OF WAVES MOVING THROUGH MAINLY
ZONAL FLOW. BIGGEST ISSUES DURING THIS PERIOD ARE TIMING OF
INDIVIDUAL WAVES AND WHERE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETS UP...RESULTING
IN MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TEMPS AND INSTABILITY. STUCK PRETTY CLOSE
TO A CONSENSUS OF MODELS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/....AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY ACROSS TAF SITES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. MAINLY LIGHT
EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT.
MAY SEE LIGHT FOG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AT THE EASTERN SITES
BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z SATURDAY. LEFT OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN AREAL COVERAGE.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY...INCREASING IN
SPEED DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY REMAIN SOUTHEAST NEAR
MILWAUKEE AND KENOSHA IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LAKE BREEZE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT MADISON LATE IN THE DAY.
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR SATURDAY EVENING...AS LOW PRESSURE
AND A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS IS MORE UNCERTAIN AT TAF SITES. BEST CHANCES WOULD BE
AT MADISON IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS
AND IFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS.
MARINE...
DEW POINTS IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE FAHRENHEIT RANGE MOVING OVER THE
COOL LAKE MICHIGAN WATERS SHOULD BRING AT LEAST PATCHY FOG SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...PERHAPS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT DURING THIS TIME...SHIFTING NORTHWEST TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING.
DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
BEACHES...
MODERATE SWIM RISK REMAINS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS BEACHES IN
MILWAUKEE COUNTY AND SOUTHWARD. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL WEAKEN BY EARLY
EVENING. UNTIL THEN...BREAKING WAVES AND CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED.
SWIMMERS ARE ADVISED TO STAY AWAY FROM DANGEROUS AREAS LIKE
PIERS...BREAKWALLS AND RIVER OUTLETS.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DAVIS
TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...DDV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
325 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TONIGHT...TAKING HIGH PRESSURE EAST
OF THE REGION. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. MIDDLE TO
HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE...AS DECAYING MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN. LOWS SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS THE AREA...NEAR CONSENSUS OF
SHORT TERM MODELS.
MAIN ISSUE WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION RAMPS UP ON THE
MODELS...BRINGING MID TO UPPER 60S FAHRENHEIT DEW POINTS BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...PER GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF
MODELS. THE NAM IS FURTHER NORTH WITH THE LOW TRACK...WHICH MAY BE
AN OUTLIER SOLUTION.
THIS TREND TO THE SOUTHWEST IS REFLECTED IN THE HRRR MODEL
OUTPUT...WHICH KEEPS BULK OF CONVECTION JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA.
WRF/ARW AND NMM SOLUTIONS KEEP THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA WITHIN
THE LINE OF CONVECTION LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS TRENDS TOWARD THE
LATEST SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK...WHICH HAS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA
IN A SLIGHT RISK.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW STRONG DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR...WITH MEAN
LAYER CAPES DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS LIMIT
DAYTIME HEATING. BULK OF CAPE ABOVE 700 MB LEVEL IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH MODEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AHEAD OF THE LOW AND
FRONT. THUS...SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE FOR SEVERE CONVECTION. KEPT
LIKELY POPS FOR THUNDER ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA BY
LATE AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER POPS TO THE SOUTHEAST. KEPT UPPER 70S
NORTH AND LOWER 80S SOUTH...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES NEAR THE LAKE
WITH A LAKE BREEZE LATE IN THE DAY.
.SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABOVE MENTIONED SEVERE RISK WILL LIKELY BE
ONGOING BY SATURDAY EVENING...EXITING THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE
EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
TAPERED POPS TO DRY BY LATER IN THE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
IN BEHIND THE FRONT. SHOULD BE DRY SUNDAY UNDER THE HIGH. THERE
WILL BE SOME MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE HIGH SCOOTS EASTWARD...WITH SHOWER/STORM CHANCES RETURNING
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PERSISTING INTO MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH.
SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS NEAR TO A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY WITH TEMPS MONDAY THOUGH GIVEN
THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
.TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
LOOKS MAINLY DRY TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY MOVES
THROUGH...THOUGH KEPT SOME LOWER POPS FOR NOW UNTIL MODELS SETTLE
ON THIS SOLUTION.
HAVE SHOWER/STORM CHANCES GOING FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SERIES OF WAVES MOVING THROUGH MAINLY
ZONAL FLOW. BIGGEST ISSUES DURING THIS PERIOD ARE TIMING OF
INDIVIDUAL WAVES AND WHERE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETS UP...RESULTING
IN MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TEMPS AND INSTABILITY. STUCK PRETTY CLOSE
TO A CONSENSUS OF MODELS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/....AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY ACROSS TAF SITES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. MAINLY LIGHT
EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT.
MAY SEE LIGHT FOG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AT THE EASTERN SITES
BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z SATURDAY. LEFT OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN AREAL COVERAGE.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY...INCREASING IN
SPEED DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY REMAIN SOUTHEAST NEAR
MILWAUKEE AND KENOSHA IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LAKE BREEZE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT MADISON LATE IN THE DAY.
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR SATURDAY EVENING...AS LOW PRESSURE
AND A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS IS MORE UNCERTAIN AT TAF SITES. BEST CHANCES WOULD BE
AT MADISON IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS
AND IFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
DEW POINTS IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE FAHRENHEIT RANGE MOVING OVER THE
COOL LAKE MICHIGAN WATERS SHOULD BRING AT LEAST PATCHY FOG SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...PERHAPS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT DURING THIS TIME...SHIFTING NORTHWEST TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING.
DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.BEACHES...
MODERATE SWIM RISK REMAINS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS BEACHES IN
MILWAUKEE COUNTY AND SOUTHWARD. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL WEAKEN BY EARLY
EVENING. UNTIL THEN...BREAKING WAVES AND CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED.
SWIMMERS ARE ADVISED TO STAY AWAY FROM DANGEROUS AREAS LIKE
PIERS...BREAKWALLS AND RIVER OUTLETS.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...WOOD
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...DDV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1247 AM MDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2015
UPDATED THIS EVENINGS FORECAST AND 00Z AVIATION FORECAST PACKAGE.
HAD ONE STRONG TSTORM WHICH DEVELOPED WEST OF WHEATLAND AND
DISSIPATED JUST WEST OF CHUGWATER. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY OTHER
ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...BUT KEPT POP NEAR 20 PERCENT EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA SINCE THERE MAY
BE SOME OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THAT STORM. OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE
A MOSTLY CLEAR AND QUIET NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2015
A RELENTLESS PERIOD OF SEVERE WEATHER FINALLY APPEARS TO BE COMING
TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS CONTRIBUTING
TO STRONG CAPPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS...AND ANY LARGER SCALE
FORCING MECHANISMS ARE LIMITED. RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
YESTERDAYS CONVECTION...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACROSS LARAMIE COUNTY
FROM MORNING STRATUS...AND WEAK LLVL UPSLOPE WILL BE THE FOCI FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR SHOWS ONE OR TWO STORMS
ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE AFTER 20Z...BUT THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS HAVE
SHOWN VIRTUALLY NO DEVELOPMENT OR EASTWARD PROGRESS. WILL MAINTAIN
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER OVER THE PLAINS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
THAT ANYWHERE EAST OF I25 WILL SEE MUCH. IF STORMS DEVELOP...THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS IS VERY MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 55-65 F
RANGE. MUCAPES OF 2500-3500 J/KG COMBINED WITH AVERAGE 0-6 KM SHEAR
VALUES AROUND 30 KTS WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...SO DO NOT SEE A GOOD
REASON TO REMOVE SEVERE WORDING. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...NOCTURNAL
SOUTHERLY LLVL/H85 JET WILL CRANK UP OVER WESTERN NEB. CANNOT RULE
OUT AN ELEVATED STORM LATE...BUT THINK THIS FEATURE WILL BE FEEDING
AN MCS WELL TO THE NORTH OVER WESTERN SD. IT WILL BE BREEZY TONIGHT
ALONG THE PINE RIDGE IN DAWES/SIOUX COUNTIES.
A TOASTY AFTERNOON FOR FRIDAY WITH THE GFS/NAM/ECM/GEM ALL SHOWING
H7 TEMPS AROUND 17-18 DEG C AND 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES AROUND
585 DM OVER THE PLAINS. DESPITE LLVL CONVERGENCE ALONG A STRONG SFC
TROUGH/DRYLINE ALONG THE WYO/NEB BORDER...WARM AIR ALOFT AND LARGER
SCALE RIDGING WILL SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION. SUBSIDENCE SHOULD SUPPORT
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS WELL. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH AFTERNOON CUMULUS
WE SEE...NEAR RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE WITH UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 F
OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. IN ADDITION...THIS IS A GREAT PATTERN
FOR NIGHTLY MCS COMPLEXES OVER NORTHEAST WY AND WESTERN SD...SO WE
CANNOT RULE OUT NIGHT TIME OR EARLY AM CONVECTION ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHERN ZONES...MOVING IN FROM NEIGHBORING CWAS. OTHERWISE WE CAN
ENJOY A PLEASANT...ALBEIT WARM AFTERNOON/EVENING FREE OF ANY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. COOLER ON SAT WITH A COLD FROPA...ALONG
WITH A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THE DAY 3 OUTLOOK
FROM SPC HAS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA IN A MRGNL RISK...WHICH SEEMS
APPROPRIATE WITH THE NAM SHOWING STRONG INSTABILITY AND GOOD SHEAR
BENEATH 50 KT FLOW AT H5. COULD SEE THE RISK CATEGORY BEING BUMPED
UP IN THE FUTURE DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF FORCING/CAPPING. KEPT
POPS ISOLATED FOR NOW...BUT EXPECT A REVISION UPWARDS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2015
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE IS HOW
MUCH CAP WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK.
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS SHOWING DRIER AIR STARTING TO PUSH
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING THAT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH WEAK TROFS MOVING
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL RESULT IN A MORE ZONAL PATTERN
OVER OUR REGION THROUGH THE WEEK.
SATURDAY NIGHT: THIS TIMEFRAME APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN
AS A STRONG (90-100KT) JET AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
WYOMING. THIS JET WILL PROVIDE STRONG WINDS ALOFT. IN
ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO EAST-
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL RESULT IN ADVECTION OF
DEEPER MOISTURE WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40 TO 50KTS.
ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD GENERALLY TRACK
WEST TO EAST AT AROUND 15 TO 20KTS WITH RIGHT MOVING SUPERCELLS
TRACKING SOUTHEAST AT 15KTS. WE ARE A BIT WORRIED THAT THIS
CONVECTION MAY TRY TO SLOW DOWN LATE SATURDAY EVENING AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET INCREASES TO AROUND 30 TO 35 KTS WHICH MAY YIELD TO
BACKBUILDING STORMS AND POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL.
SUNDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT: THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IS
BUILDING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIGHTLY OVER OUR REGION. THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT SOME GOOD CAPPING OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL RESULT
IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED CONVECTION. THIS SHOULD ALSO
ALLOW FOR SOILS TO DRY OUT. CANNOT RULE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION
ON TUESDAY AS THE CAP BEGINS TO WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO WEAK
POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY:
THE GFS SHOWS A POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY PUSHING THROUGH
NORTHERN MONTANA AND SOUTHERN CANADA ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THIS WAVE BUT SHOWS MORE RIDGING
BUILDING OVER INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...AND PROVIDES MORE TROFFING OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EITHER WAY...THIS MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO A WEAKER CAP ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM MDT FRI JUN 19 2015
IFR-MVFR STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
TONIGHT AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID-MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL REMAIN GUSTY OVER THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF
LATE FRIDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING OUT
WEST IN THE MORNING AS WELL. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK
MINIMAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A STRONG MIDLEVEL CAP IN PLACE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2015
VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL FALL TO
BETWEEN 10 AND 20 PERCENT...WITH WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 25 MPH
ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND SATURDAY...POSSIBLY SEVERE. WINDS COULD BE
GUSTY AND ERRATIC NEAR CONVECTION.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TJT/JG
SHORT TERM...REC
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...CLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1106 PM MDT SAT JUN 20 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 842 PM MDT SAT JUN 20 2015
UPDATED TO END SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. RADAR AND SATELLITE INDICATE A COUPLE OF
SHOWERS STILL OVER THE SAN JUAN RANGE...BUT HAVE QUICKLY BEEN
DISSIPATING AND SHOULD COME TO AN END BY 10 PM. NO OTHER UPDATES
AT THIS TIME. MOZLEY
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT SAT JUN 20 2015
WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH PUSHED THROUGH THE PLAINS EARLIER TODAY HAS
BROUGHT E-NE WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS TO THE PLAINS/ERN
MOUNTAINS...WHILE TEMPS FARTHER WEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR
VALLEYS REMAIN LITTLE CHANGED. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY LOOK
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ISOLATED TSRA OVER THE ERN MOUNTAINS...THOUGH
LACK OF ANY TRIGGER AND FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL CIN HAS SO FAR KEPT
THINGS IN CHECK. LAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE NAM STILL HAVE SOME WEAK
TSRA DEVELOPING...WHILE HRRR AND OTHER MESOSCALE MODELS ARE MAINLY
DRY. WILL KEEP JUST SOME VERY LOW POPS FOR A FEW OF THE HIGHER PEAKS
INTO EARLY EVENING...THOUGH WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE
AREA REMAIN CONVECTION FREE AT THIS POINT. ANY CLOUDS WILL CLEAR
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN SAT MORNING MOST LOCATIONS. ON SUNDAY...HEIGHTS BUILD
SLIGHTLY AND WITH PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE PLAINS PRODUCING A
RETURN TO S-SW WINDS...EXPECT ALL AREAS TO BECOME VERY HOT ONCE
AGAIN...WITH READINGS NEAR/OVER 100F ACROSS THE LOWER ARK VALLEY.
AIR MASS LOOKS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY CONVECTION...SO WILL KEEP A
DRY FORECAST GOING ALL AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT SAT JUN 20 2015
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY
AND HOT WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA. THERE WILL ONLY BE A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HIGH BASED CONVECTION OVER
THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM
90 TO 100 ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS...70S AND
80S HIGH VALLEYS...AND 60S AND 70S MOUNTAINS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGE PUSHES EAST SOME...ALLOWING A
FETCH OF MODEST MOISTURE TO ENTER THE AREA. IN ADDITION...A
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS...SO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WILL BE EVIDENT
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MODELS DIVERGENT ON HOW
MUCH CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST TUESDAY EVENING. GFS HAS
THE MOST...WITH EUROPEAN BARELY ANY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW SEVERE STORMS BOTH DAYS WITH INSTABILITY VALUES INCREASING.
WITH SOME CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN
OVER THE WEEKEND.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE FORECAST TO BUILD TO OUR
WEST DURING THE PERIOD. GFS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE RIDING DOWN THE
NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE IN THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY TIME
FRAME...MORE SO THAN THE EUROPEAN. THERE WILL LIKELY BE DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THE FRONT
SIDE OF THE RIDGE....MORE CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES...IN THE
80S AND 90S PLAINS...70S AND 80S HIGH VALLEYS AND 50S TO 70S
MOUNTAINS. -TLM-
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT SAT JUN 20 2015
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
FEW AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT KCOS ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MOZLEY
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...MOZLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
213 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL WILL IMPACT THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY BRINGING A MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO AREAS
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAYBE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM EDT...RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN FOR MOST AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90...ALONG WITH EMBEDDED POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN. IN FACT...SOME
CG LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
ULSTER CO.
THE REMNANTS OF TC BILL PASSING TO THE SOUTH WILL COMBINE WITH
THE RETURN FLOW AROUND A DEPARTING HIGH TO HELP PWATS RISE. THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1 1/2+ INCHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION AS THE
REMNANTS OF BILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TOWARD THE
NEW YORK METROPOLITAN AREA FOR LATER TONIGHT.
THE NEW 00Z NAM...AS WELL AS THE 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE...ALL SUGGEST
STEADY AND HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD OUR
REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS THE LOW PASSES SOUTH OF
THE AREA...AND SOME OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP OVER PA STARTS TO
ROTATE TOWARDS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THIS WILL
ESPECIALLY BE TRUE FOR AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION ON SOUTHWARD.
RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH DAYBREAK...AND MAY BE
LOCALLY HEAVY...ESPECIALLY FOR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. CANNOT RULE
OUT ADDITIONAL RUMBLES OF THUNDER IN A FEW SPOTS DUE TO SOME
SMALL AMOUNTS OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN PLACE AS WELL.
NO FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED SINCE RAIN RATES WON/T APPEAR TO
EXCEED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE. STILL...SOME PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AND IN URBAN AND LOW LYING AREAS MAY STILL OCCUR IN A FEW
LOCATIONS...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO
STATEMENT.
THIS RAINFALL WILL BE HELPING ACROSS THESE SOUTHERN AND EASTER
AREAS...AS THE ANNUAL DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL FOR POUGHKEEPSIE NY
STANDS AT -7.62 INCHES AND IS PITTSFIELD MA -4.18 INCHES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S...ALONG WITH THE MUGGY
AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE REMNANTS OF BILL ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK TO ACROSS THE NEW YORK
METRO AREA AND LONG ISLAND AND WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACTS MAINLY THE
AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT THROUGH THE
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
FAST ZONAL FLOW WILL BE ON THE APPROACH FOR SUNDAY. THE SYSTEM`S
WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY PLACING US
IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IS THE BIG QUESTION.
FLOW WILL BE UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH SHEAR INCREASING AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES INTO THE EVENING HOURS. IF THERE IS ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO WORK MULTICELLS CLUSTERS SHOULD FORM. HOWEVER
GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT ABOUT HOW STEEP THE LAPSE RATES
SHOULD GET. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS UPGRADED THE SEVERE
WEATHER RISK TO SLIGHT FOR MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...FOR
AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...WITH THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK. HAVE ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE FORECAST FOR GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY
RAINFALL ADDRESSING THE THREAT.
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
THE SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST. SOME RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD IN BETWEEN SHORT WAVES RESULTING IN MAINLY FAIR WEATHER WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PREDOMINANTLY WET PERIOD WITH MAINLY SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO RUN FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF SUNSHINE...
BUT ASIDE FROM TUESDAY...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED...SO THE MENTION IS FOR JUST SHOWERS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF TUESDAY FROM AROUND 70 DEGREES IN
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE LOWER MID HUDSON
VALLEY...BUT WILL GRADUALLY COOL DOWN...TO HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S BY FRIDAY. SATURDAY WILL AVERAGE ONLY SLIGHTLY
WARMER. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILDEST...WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 50S
TO LOWER 60S. BY FRIDAY NIGHT...LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50
DEGREES IN THE NORTHERN HIGH PEAKS...TO THE UPPER 50S IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY. NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS FOR ALBANY DURING THIS
PERIOD ARE LOWER 80S AND AROUND 59 DEGREES...RESPECTIVELY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE MVFR/IFR THROUGH 09Z AS PLENTY OF LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE AND RAIN SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. FLYING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINATELY MVFR
VISIBILITIES...WITH PREDOMINATELY IFR CEILINGS DUE TO LOW STRATUS.
HAVE PLACED TEMPO GROUPS AT THE TAF SITES FROM 06Z TO 09Z FOR
BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVY RAIN
SHOWERS. LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME
MORE OF A SHOWERY NATURE...BEFORE TAPERING OFF BETWEEN BY AROUND
10Z TO 14Z. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE SOUTHEAST...BUT LIGHT AROUND
4-8 KNOTS.
FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE ABOVE IFR AFTER 12Z AS SHOWERS
END...BUT IT MAY TAKE UNTIL THE MID TO LATE MORNING FOR FLYING
CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ABOVE MVFR LEVELS. DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTN HOURS...THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR T-STORMS
AROUND...BUT THESE WILL BE RATHER SCATTERED IN NATURE. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME WESTERLY AROUND 10 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL WILL IMPACT THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY BRINGING A MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO AREAS
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CONDITIONS
DRY OUT FOR MONDAY...HOWEVER MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
PWATS WILL BE IN THE RISE AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1 1/2+
INCHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MOST PORTION AS THE REMNANTS OF BILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TOWARD THE NEW YORK METROPOLITAN AREA. THE
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT NORTHWARD WITH THE HEAVIER QPF. THE GFS
IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE HOWEVER IT APPEARS TO BE HAVING CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK ISSUES AND CAN BE TRUSTED. A MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AS THE
HIGHER PWATS ARRIVE. NO FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST UNDER THE SEVERE DROUGHT CATEGORY ON THE
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR. THE ANNUAL DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE NY STANDS AT -7.62 INCHES AND IS PITTSFIELD MA -4.18
INCHES. SOME URBAN AND POOR DRAINING FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
PWATS WILL DECREASE SOME SUNDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF BILL MOVE AWAY
FROM THE REGION. HOWEVER A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FOCUS
FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
CONDITIONS DRY OUT FOR MONDAY...HOWEVER MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1233 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL WILL IMPACT THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY BRINGING A MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO AREAS
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAYBE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM EDT...RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN FOR MOST AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90...ALONG WITH EMBEDDED POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN. IN FACT...SOME
CG LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
ULSTER CO.
THE REMNANTS OF TC BILL PASSING TO THE SOUTH WILL COMBINE WITH
THE RETURN FLOW AROUND A DEPARTING HIGH TO HELP PWATS RISE. THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1 1/2+ INCHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION AS THE
REMNANTS OF BILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TOWARD THE
NEW YORK METROPOLITAN AREA FOR LATER TONIGHT.
THE NEW 00Z NAM...AS WELL AS THE 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE...ALL SUGGEST
STEADY AND HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD OUR
REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS THE LOW PASSES SOUTH OF
THE AREA...AND SOME OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP OVER PA STARTS TO
ROTATE TOWARDS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THIS WILL
ESPECIALLY BE TRUE FOR AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION ON SOUTHWARD.
RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH DAYBREAK...AND MAY BE
LOCALLY HEAVY...ESPECIALLY FOR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. CANNOT RULE
OUT ADDITIONAL RUMBLES OF THUNDER IN A FEW SPOTS DUE TO SOME
SMALL AMOUNTS OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN PLACE AS WELL.
NO FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED SINCE RAIN RATES WON/T APPEAR TO
EXCEED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE. STILL...SOME PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AND IN URBAN AND LOW LYING AREAS MAY STILL OCCUR IN A FEW
LOCATIONS...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO
STATEMENT.
THIS RAINFALL WILL BE HELPING ACROSS THESE SOUTHERN AND EASTER
AREAS...AS THE ANNUAL DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL FOR POUGHKEEPSIE NY
STANDS AT -7.62 INCHES AND IS PITTSFIELD MA -4.18 INCHES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S...ALONG WITH THE MUGGY
AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE REMNANTS OF BILL ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK TO ACROSS THE NEW YORK
METRO AREA AND LONG ISLAND AND WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACTS MAINLY THE
AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT THROUGH THE
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
FAST ZONAL FLOW WILL BE ON THE APPROACH FOR SUNDAY. THE SYSTEM`S
WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY PLACING US
IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IS THE BIG QUESTION.
FLOW WILL BE UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH SHEAR INCREASING AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES INTO THE EVENING HOURS. IF THERE IS ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO WORK MULTICELLS CLUSTERS SHOULD FORM. HOWEVER
GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT ABOUT HOW STEEP THE LAPSE RATES
SHOULD GET. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS UPGRADED THE SEVERE
WEATHER RISK TO SLIGHT FOR MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...FOR
AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...WITH THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK. HAVE ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE FORECAST FOR GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY
RAINFALL ADDRESSING THE THREAT.
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
THE SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST. SOME RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD IN BETWEEN SHORT WAVES RESULTING IN MAINLY FAIR WEATHER WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PREDOMINANTLY WET PERIOD WITH MAINLY SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO RUN FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF SUNSHINE...
BUT ASIDE FROM TUESDAY...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED...SO THE MENTION IS FOR JUST SHOWERS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF TUESDAY FROM AROUND 70 DEGREES IN
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE LOWER MID HUDSON
VALLEY...BUT WILL GRADUALLY COOL DOWN...TO HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S BY FRIDAY. SATURDAY WILL AVERAGE ONLY SLIGHTLY
WARMER. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILDEST...WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 50S
TO LOWER 60S. BY FRIDAY NIGHT...LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50
DEGREES IN THE NORTHERN HIGH PEAKS...TO THE UPPER 50S IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY. NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS FOR ALBANY DURING THIS
PERIOD ARE LOWER 80S AND AROUND 59 DEGREES...RESPECTIVELY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS HAVE LOWERED DOWN TO MVFR CONDITIONS FOR CIGS
FOR ALL SITES DUE TO ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CAUSING PLENTY
OF LOW STRATUS TO FORM. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...RAIN SHOWERS
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL DROP VSBYS
DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS AS WELL...AND EVENTUALLY IFR CONDITIONS FOR
BOTH VSBYS/CIGS BY AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS.
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BY AROUND 6-9 AM OVER THE REGION. IFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD END ONCE THE RAIN STOPS...BUT IT MAY TAKE UNTIL
THE MID TO LATE MORNING FOR FLYING CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ABOVE
MVFR LEVELS. DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTN HOURS...THERE MAY BE
SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR T-STORMS AROUND...BUT THESE WILL BE
RATHER SCT IN NATURE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME
WESTERLY AROUND 10 KTS OR SO.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL WILL IMPACT THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY BRINGING A MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO AREAS
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CONDITIONS
DRY OUT FOR MONDAY...HOWEVER MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
PWATS WILL BE IN THE RISE AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1 1/2+
INCHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MOST PORTION AS THE REMNANTS OF BILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TOWARD THE NEW YORK METROPOLITAN AREA. THE
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT NORTHWARD WITH THE HEAVIER QPF. THE GFS
IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE HOWEVER IT APPEARS TO BE HAVING CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK ISSUES AND CAN BE TRUSTED. A MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AS THE
HIGHER PWATS ARRIVE. NO FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST UNDER THE SEVERE DROUGHT CATEGORY ON THE
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR. THE ANNUAL DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE NY STANDS AT -7.62 INCHES AND IS PITTSFIELD MA -4.18
INCHES. SOME URBAN AND POOR DRAINING FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
PWATS WILL DECREASE SOME SUNDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF BILL MOVE AWAY
FROM THE REGION. HOWEVER A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FOCUS
FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
CONDITIONS DRY OUT FOR MONDAY...HOWEVER MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
325 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SHORT TERM...
329 PM CDT
THROUGH TONIGHT...
STILL LINGERING UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING...WITH AN OVERALL TREND TOWARD A LOWER
THREAT FOR THE THE NORTHEAST 1/2 TO 2/3 OF THE CWA. AS NOTED
EARLIER...CLOUD COVER HAS OVERALL LIMITED DESTABILIZATION PROCESS
EVEN IN PRESENCE OF GRADUALLY MOISTENING DEWPOINTS. ALSO A VERY
STOUT WARM NOSE AT BASE OF EML ADVECTING WESTWARD CENTERED FROM
750-850 MB NOTED ON 18Z DVN SOUNDING WILL RESULT IN CAPPING/CINH
AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ITS APPEARS THAT
LINGERING CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST IA AND NORTHWEST
IL ON NOSE OF SPEED MAX SEEN ON W/V IMAGERY COULD BE MAIN FOCUS
FOR WHAT OCCURS THIS EVENING...ONCE STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES AND
WEAKENS THE CAP. IT STILL LOOKS THAT STRONGEST INSTABILITY AXIS
WITH MLCAPE UP TO 1K TO 2K J/KG WILL RESIDE NEAR OR JUST WEST OF
THE FAR WEST AND SOUTHWEST CWA. MORE ROBUST CONVECTION LIKELY WILL
RIDE THIS NORTH- NORTHWEST TO SOUTH- SOUTHEAST AXIS THIS EVENING.
THEREFORE...IN PRESENCE OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KT...HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS FAVORED TO BE WEST OF DIXON TO
OTTAWA TO PAXTON LINE...FAIRLY SIMILAR TO RECENT RUNS OF HRRR.
UPSCALE GROWTH INTO MCS MAY BE OCCURRING BY TIME STORMS
ARRIVE...SO PRIMARY THREATS FROM ANY SEVERE STORMS LOOK TO BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
FOR REST OF AREA...IT APPEARS BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS
WILL STILL PRESS SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AS DEPICTED ON
RECENT HRRR RUNS...BUT WITH MUCH LOWER CHANCE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING POTENTIAL MAY BE
LIMITED BUT ALSO NON-ZERO FOR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA...SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS
EVENING. COULD END UP BEING MORE OF A SHOWER/EMBEDDED THUNDER
SCENARIO. FINALLY...ANY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH HIGH PWAT IN 1.7 TO 1.8 INCH RANGE SAGGING
SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THUS GIVEN RECENT HEAVY RAINS...WILL
ALSO NEED TO MONITOR FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL THIS EVENING EVEN IN
FASTER STORM MOTIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S...WITH 60S DEWPOINTS YIELDING MUGGY CONDITIONS.
RC
&&
.LONG TERM...
329 PM CDT
SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES FOR THE PERIOD REMAIN WITH
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING NEXT WEEK.
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL LIKELY LINGERING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA...WHERE UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS
WILL STILL LIKELY RESIDE. WHILE CONVECTION FROM THE OVERNIGHT WILL
HAVE LIKELY EXITED THE AREA BY THE MORNING...THERE APPEARS TO BE A
CHANCE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST INDIANA MAINLY SOUTH OF PONTIAC ILLINOIS TO
MOROCCO INDIANA LINE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THESE LOCATIONS ARE
INDICATING INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH LITTLE TO NO CIN DURING THE
MORNING AND ALTHOUGH THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
LOW...THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A SMALL WINDOW BEFORE THE AXIS OF BEST
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE CWA BY MIDDAY.
THE AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE DRY WITH CLEARING SKIES...AND WITH
TEMPERATURES INCREASING INTO THE 80S. WINDS NEAR THE LAKE WILL BEGIN
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AND WITH A SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST/EAST
LIKELY BY MIDDAY...LIMITING TEMPS TO THE 70S.
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE QUIET SUNDAY EVENING AND THROUGH MUCH OF
SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...ATTENTION TURNS BACK WEST TOWARDS INCREASING
MID LEVEL ENERGY AND A STRENGTHENING LLJ. THESE FEATURES WILL ALLOW
FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WELL WEST OF THE CWA ACROSS IOWA
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. SOME OF THIS DEVELOPMENT COULD POSSIBLY REACH
THE FAR WESTERN CWA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND HAVE
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING DURING THIS TIME. THE BETTER
CHANCES WILL COME MONDAY MORNING WHEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE. VEERING LLJ...APPROACHING MID LEVEL
SUPPORT...AND GOOD MOIST/TEMP ADVECTION SHOULD PROVIDE AMPLE SUPPORT
FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WITH THIS DECENT
FORCING IN PLACE AND WHILE MODERATE/STRONG INSTABILITY ALOFT QUICKLY
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE CWA...COULD ALLOW FOR SOME OF THESE STORMS TO
BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE LIKELY HAZARD WOULD BE FOR LARGE
HAIL...BEFORE THIS DEVELOPMENT LIFTS NORTH OF THE CWA BY MIDDAY.
GUIDANCE DOES VARY TO HOW MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL EVOLVE WITH REGARD
TO ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT IT WOULD APPEAR THAT
THERE WILL BE A DRY WINDOW DURING THIS TIME. PERSISTING WARM/MOIST
PUSH RIDING ALONG STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE OBSERVED
MONDAY AND IF THE CLOUDS CAN DEPART...TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WILL BE LIKELY.
ANOTHER DECENT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ARRIVING MONDAY NIGHT WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THEM TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE. HAVE NOT
INCREASE POPS DURING THIS TIME TOO MUCH OWING TO SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH COVERAGE AND EXACT TIMING. HOWEVER...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA...DEVELOPMENT DEFINITELY APPEARS
POSSIBLE. THIS FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE CWA BY TUESDAY BUT
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT IT COULD LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
DURING THIS TIME. IF IT DOES...THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL CHANCES OVER
THE SOUTHERN CWA.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* MVFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
* WINDS BECOMING GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST BY LATE MORNING.
* POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE/NORTHEAST WIND SHIFT LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/
EARLY EVENING.
ED F
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER NE ILLINOIS IN THE WAKE OF THE LARGE
COMPLEX OF RAIN AND STORMS HAVING EXITED TO THE SOUTH EARLIER
TONIGHT TO ALSO SLIDE SE/DISSIPATE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MEANWHILE MVFR
CIGS WILL SPREAD OUT ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY STRONG
DRYING WITH THE WEAK COLD FRONT POISED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA THE REST OF TONIGHT.
ALONG WITH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE... WET GROUND AND LIGHT
WINDS EXPECT VSBYS TO ALSO LOWER IN LIGHT FOG OVERNIGHT HOWEVER
LOW CLOUDS WILL PREVENT VSBYS FROM DROPPING BELOW 3-4 SM AT ORD
AND MDW.
NO RAIN EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT BY LATE MORNING AND BECOMING GUSTY. SOME QUESTION AS
TO WHETHER A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY MAY DEVELOP AND REACH THE
TERMINALS BY LATE IN THE DAY WITH FAIRLY STOUT NORTHWEST TO WEST
GRADIENT WIND DIMINISHING POSSIBLY ENOUGH BY LATE AFTERNOON.
ED F
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM TO HIGH FOR MVFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.
* MEDIUM FOR WIND TRENDS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
* HIGH FOR OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
ED F
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* MONDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. STRONG/GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* TUESDAY...DRY/VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. EASTERLY WINDS.
* FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. NORTHEAST WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
325 AM CDT
LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXITING THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL TURN WINDS NORTHWEST ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST QUICKLY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SLACKEN BY EVENING FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD
OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT BEFORE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
SETS UP MONDAY.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INTENSIFY RAPIDLY MONDAY AHEAD OF FAIRLY STRONG
LOW PRESSURE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE U P OF
MICHIGAN BY MONDAY EVENING AND THEN QUICKLY INTO ONTARIO MONDAY
NIGHT... IT WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LENGTH OF
THE LAKE BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL THEN EASE
TUESDAY AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES AS THE LOW AND FRONT PULL AWAY AND
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. YET ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
EAST TO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THURSDAY MORNING.
ED F
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
109 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SHORT TERM...
329 PM CDT
THROUGH TONIGHT...
STILL LINGERING UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING...WITH AN OVERALL TREND TOWARD A LOWER
THREAT FOR THE THE NORTHEAST 1/2 TO 2/3 OF THE CWA. AS NOTED
EARLIER...CLOUD COVER HAS OVERALL LIMITED DESTABILIZATION PROCESS
EVEN IN PRESENCE OF GRADUALLY MOISTENING DEWPOINTS. ALSO A VERY
STOUT WARM NOSE AT BASE OF EML ADVECTING WESTWARD CENTERED FROM
750-850 MB NOTED ON 18Z DVN SOUNDING WILL RESULT IN CAPPING/CINH
AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ITS APPEARS THAT
LINGERING CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST IA AND NORTHWEST
IL ON NOSE OF SPEED MAX SEEN ON W/V IMAGERY COULD BE MAIN FOCUS
FOR WHAT OCCURS THIS EVENING...ONCE STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES AND
WEAKENS THE CAP. IT STILL LOOKS THAT STRONGEST INSTABILITY AXIS
WITH MLCAPE UP TO 1K TO 2K J/KG WILL RESIDE NEAR OR JUST WEST OF
THE FAR WEST AND SOUTHWEST CWA. MORE ROBUST CONVECTION LIKELY WILL
RIDE THIS NORTH- NORTHWEST TO SOUTH- SOUTHEAST AXIS THIS EVENING.
THEREFORE...IN PRESENCE OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KT...HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS FAVORED TO BE WEST OF DIXON TO
OTTAWA TO PAXTON LINE...FAIRLY SIMILAR TO RECENT RUNS OF HRRR.
UPSCALE GROWTH INTO MCS MAY BE OCCURRING BY TIME STORMS
ARRIVE...SO PRIMARY THREATS FROM ANY SEVERE STORMS LOOK TO BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
FOR REST OF AREA...IT APPEARS BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS
WILL STILL PRESS SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AS DEPICTED ON
RECENT HRRR RUNS...BUT WITH MUCH LOWER CHANCE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING POTENTIAL MAY BE
LIMITED BUT ALSO NON-ZERO FOR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA...SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS
EVENING. COULD END UP BEING MORE OF A SHOWER/EMBEDDED THUNDER
SCENARIO. FINALLY...ANY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH HIGH PWAT IN 1.7 TO 1.8 INCH RANGE SAGGING
SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THUS GIVEN RECENT HEAVY RAINS...WILL
ALSO NEED TO MONITOR FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL THIS EVENING EVEN IN
FASTER STORM MOTIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S...WITH 60S DEWPOINTS YIELDING MUGGY CONDITIONS.
RC
&&
.LONG TERM...
329 PM CDT
SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES FOR THE PERIOD REMAIN WITH
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING NEXT WEEK.
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL LIKELY LINGERING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA...WHERE UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS
WILL STILL LIKELY RESIDE. WHILE CONVECTION FROM THE OVERNIGHT WILL
HAVE LIKELY EXITED THE AREA BY THE MORNING...THERE APPEARS TO BE A
CHANCE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST INDIANA MAINLY SOUTH OF PONTIAC ILLINOIS TO
MOROCCO INDIANA LINE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THESE LOCATIONS ARE
INDICATING INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH LITTLE TO NO CIN DURING THE
MORNING AND ALTHOUGH THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
LOW...THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A SMALL WINDOW BEFORE THE AXIS OF BEST
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE CWA BY MIDDAY.
THE AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE DRY WITH CLEARING SKIES...AND WITH
TEMPERATURES INCREASING INTO THE 80S. WINDS NEAR THE LAKE WILL BEGIN
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AND WITH A SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST/EAST
LIKELY BY MIDDAY...LIMITING TEMPS TO THE 70S.
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE QUIET SUNDAY EVENING AND THROUGH MUCH OF
SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...ATTENTION TURNS BACK WEST TOWARDS INCREASING
MID LEVEL ENERGY AND A STRENGTHENING LLJ. THESE FEATURES WILL ALLOW
FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WELL WEST OF THE CWA ACROSS IOWA
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. SOME OF THIS DEVELOPMENT COULD POSSIBLY REACH
THE FAR WESTERN CWA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND HAVE
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING DURING THIS TIME. THE BETTER
CHANCES WILL COME MONDAY MORNING WHEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE. VEERING LLJ...APPROACHING MID LEVEL
SUPPORT...AND GOOD MOIST/TEMP ADVECTION SHOULD PROVIDE AMPLE SUPPORT
FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WITH THIS DECENT
FORCING IN PLACE AND WHILE MODERATE/STRONG INSTABILITY ALOFT QUICKLY
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE CWA...COULD ALLOW FOR SOME OF THESE STORMS TO
BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE LIKELY HAZARD WOULD BE FOR LARGE
HAIL...BEFORE THIS DEVELOPMENT LIFTS NORTH OF THE CWA BY MIDDAY.
GUIDANCE DOES VARY TO HOW MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL EVOLVE WITH REGARD
TO ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT IT WOULD APPEAR THAT
THERE WILL BE A DRY WINDOW DURING THIS TIME. PERSISTING WARM/MOIST
PUSH RIDING ALONG STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE OBSERVED
MONDAY AND IF THE CLOUDS CAN DEPART...TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WILL BE LIKELY.
ANOTHER DECENT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ARRIVING MONDAY NIGHT WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THEM TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE. HAVE NOT
INCREASE POPS DURING THIS TIME TOO MUCH OWING TO SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH COVERAGE AND EXACT TIMING. HOWEVER...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA...DEVELOPMENT DEFINITELY APPEARS
POSSIBLE. THIS FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE CWA BY TUESDAY BUT
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT IT COULD LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
DURING THIS TIME. IF IT DOES...THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL CHANCES OVER
THE SOUTHERN CWA.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* MVFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
* WINDS BECOMING GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST BY LATE MORNING.
* POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE/NORTHEAST WIND SHIFT LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/
EARLY EVENING.
ED F
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER NE ILLINOIS IN THE WAKE OF THE LARGE
COMPLEX OF RAIN AND STORMS HAVING EXITED TO THE SOUTH EARLIER
TONIGHT TO ALSO SLIDE SE/DISSIPATE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MEANWHILE MVFR
CIGS WILL SPREAD OUT ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY STRONG
DRYING WITH THE WEAK COLD FRONT POISED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA THE REST OF TONIGHT.
ALONG WITH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE... WET GROUND AND LIGHT
WINDS EXPECT VSBYS TO ALSO LOWER IN LIGHT FOG OVERNIGHT HOWEVER
LOW CLOUDS WILL PREVENT VSBYS FROM DROPPING BELOW 3-4 SM AT ORD
AND MDW.
NO RAIN EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT BY LATE MORNING AND BECOMING GUSTY. SOME QUESTION AS
TO WHETHER A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY MAY DEVELOP AND REACH THE
TERMINALS BY LATE IN THE DAY WITH FAIRLY STOUT NORTHWEST TO WEST
GRADIENT WIND DIMINISHING POSSIBLY ENOUGH BY LATE AFTERNOON.
ED F
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM TO HIGH FOR MVFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.
* MEDIUM FOR WIND TRENDS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
* HIGH FOR OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
ED F
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* MONDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. STRONG/GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* TUESDAY...DRY/VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. EASTERLY WINDS.
* FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. NORTHEAST WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
408 PM CDT
THERE WAS A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE...POSSIBLY UP TO 33 KT FOR A
TIME. HOWEVER...WINDS HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED BACK TO THE 10 TO 15
KT RANGE IN THE NEAR TERM. THESE SPEEDS WITH GENERALLY SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND INTO A PORTION OF THE
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE A TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A SMALL WINDOW OF 10 TO 20 KT WINDS WITH
THIS WIND SHIFT...THE MORE PREVAILING SPEEDS WILL BE IN THE 10 TO
15 KT RANGE. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN SUNDAY MORNING BUT
DIMINISH AND THEN LIKELY BECOME MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT BACK MORE
SOUTHERLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND THEN INCREASE DURING THIS
TIME. THIS INCREASE WILL ESPECIALLY OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING...WHEN SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 30 KT ARE APPEARING
LIKELY. THIS WILL PERSIST UNTIL ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH WINDS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST
WHILE DIMINISHING.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1241 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 857 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING INTO WEST
CENTRAL IL FROM THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWING AROUND 4000
J/KG MLCAPE VALUES ALONG/SOUTH OF THE LINE WITH 30-50 KTS 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF IL. AS A RESULT...ORGANIZED
SEVERE CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING THROUGH
WEST CENTRAL IL AND A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM.
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS IN THIS AREA INCLUDE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO
60 MPH OR GREATER...LARGE HAIL...AND THE THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD EAST AND SOUTH
THROUGH CENTRAL/SE IL OVERNIGHT WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
SLOWLY DIMINISHING AND LARGELY SINKING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD SOUTH
CENTRAL IL TOWARD POCKET OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY. HAVE SENT
UPDATES TO FORECASTS FOR SHORT-TERM TRENDS IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY LARGELY USING HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON RECENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL DEFINED BY 1006 MB SURFACE LOW
OVER SOUTHERN OHIO WITH 580 DM 500 MB LOW WILL TRACK INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY DAWN SUNDAY. BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS 1.5-3K FT
OVER EASTERN HALF OF CWA WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
A CAPPED ATMOSPHERE IS KEEPING CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL DRY SO FAR
TODAY. HOWEVER, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN IA AND
TRACKING EAST INTO NW IL AND SW WI MAINLY NORTH OF I-80 WILL EVOLVE
INTO A LARGER MCS SYSTEM THAT WILL DROP SE TOWARD THE IL RIVER LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL IL DURING
THIS EVENING, REACHING SOUTHEAST IL OVERNIGHT WHERE CONVECTION
CHANCES LOWER TO 30% FROM I-70 SOUTH. SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS AS FAR SE AS A TAYLORVILLE TO DANVILLE LINE TONIGHT WHILE
ENHANCED RISK WAS EXPANDED SE TO NEAR THE IL RIVER. AREAS WEST OF IL
RIVER HAVE 30% RISK OF LARGE HAIL (2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER) AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH A 5% RISK OF TORNADOES. VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING WITH
CAPES RISING TO 2500-4500 J/KG IN WESTERN COUNTIES (EVEN NEAR 5000
J/KG BY 00Z/7 PM IN SW IA/NE MO AND FAR WEST CENTRAL IL AROUND
QUINCY. MEANWHILE BULK SHEAR IS 30-40 KTS OVER NORTHERN CWA MAINLY
FROM I-72 NORTH. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5-1.8 INCHES OVER
IA THIS AFTERNOON TO SHIFT INTO CENTRAL IL THIS EVENING AND COULD
CAUSE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WITH THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. MUGGY LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S OVER
CENTRAL/SE IL WITH UPPER 60S FAR NW BY GALESBURG.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED OVER THE AREA
TOMORROW AND THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. COULD BE SOME LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
OVERNIGHT MCS THAT MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER...BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR
SOUTH WILL THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GET BY MORNING. FORCING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR MORE STORMS AND AGREE
WITH SPC THAT A SLIGHT RISK IS WARRANTED OVER PARTS OF THE CWA
TOMORROW THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL THEN LIFT
NORTHWARD A LITTLE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...SO PCPN
CHANCES WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD SOME. HOWEVER...ALL MODELS FORECASTING
STORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AND THIS WILL KEEP THE FRONT
FROM GOING TOO FAR NORTH...AND WILL LIKELY BE OVER OR NEAR THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY. THEREFORE...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. THERE WILL BE SOME BREAKS IN THE
PCPN...BUT TIMING OF WHEN THESE WILL BE THIS FAR OUT IS TOO
UNCERTAIN. SO WILL JUST KEEP POPS THE WHOLE TIME AND THEN MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS AS THE EVENTS GET CLOSER.
TEMPS WILL BE WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE WARMEST DAYS BEING
MON THROUGH WED. A RELATIVELY STRONGER FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH
LATE IN THE WEEK AND THIS SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOR FRI
AND SAT. GUIDANCE NUMBERS LOOK OK BUT WENT LITTLE WARMER IN THE
EXTENDED THAN MEX GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
WIDESPREAD SHRA AND SCATTERED TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL IL TERMINALS AT
06Z. EMBEDDED IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY DUE TO LOW
VISIBILITIES...HOWEVER PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS.
PRECIPITATION/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT
AND WILL LINGER LONGEST AT KSPI-KDEC-KCMI...POTENTIALLY UNTIL
AROUND 10-12Z. AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY CAUSING ACTIVITY SHIFTS BACK
NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...SHRA/TSRA WILL SPREAD BACK
NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IL TERMINALS FROM AROUND 21-24Z AND HAVE
INCLUDED VCTS BACK INTO TAFS AT THAT TIME. WINDS VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...TRANSITIONING
BACK TO W-SW 5-10 KTS OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ONTON
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...AUTEN
AVIATION...ONTON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
350 AM AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
A MEANDERING FRONTAL ZONE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER NEARBY FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA HAS
BEEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING WITH TIME. STILL SOME POCKETS OF HIGH
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CURRENTLY
EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST INDIANA...THROUGH FAR SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...AND THEN BACK INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER WESTERN ILLINOIS/NORTHERN MISSOURI
ALONG THE TAIL END OF THIS BOUNDARY.
CURRENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATER TODAY
ALONG COLD FRONT IS LESS CLEAR CUT BASED ON CURRENT ACTIVITY.
STEEP LAPSE RATES OBSERVED ON LAST EVENING/S UPPER AIR HAVE LIKELY
BEEN WORKED OVER...SO THINK SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR TODAY HAS
DIMINISHED. POSSIBLE SOME OF THE ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN ILLINOIS
MAY MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST ZONES LATER THIS MORNING. MODEL DATA
ALSO SUGGEST SOME DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER
ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS TODAY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR TODAY MAY BE TOO
WARM. WILL NUDGE THE GUIDANCE HIGHS DOWN A FEW DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
MODEL DATA SUGGEST FRONT WILL STALL OUT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER FOR A
TIME EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO DRIFT BACK NORTH TOWARDS
MORNING. LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE FOCUSED MUCH FARTHER WEST
TONIGHT...SO DON/T THINK ANY NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE
WIDESPREAD. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
IN THE SOUTH.
REMNANTS OF FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. LAPSE RATES
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...A GOOD FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL BE LACKING WITH
THE BETTER FORCING FARTHER NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. IT IS
POSSIBLE SOME CONVECTION MAY SNEAK INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT FROM
THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST. BASED ON ABOVE...WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE
POPS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...PROBABLY STALLING OUT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER TUESDAY NIGHT.
WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS AT THOSE TIMES AS WELL.
BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...THE GFS TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE IN THE LATER PERIODS OF THE SHORT TERM LOOK OK AT THIS
POINT. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS PLANNED.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
A FLAT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. WILL RETROGRADE BACK INTO
THE ROCKIES WHICH WILL ALLOW AN UPPER TROUGH TO DIG INTO THE GREAT
LAKES BY NEXT WEEKEND. ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
PERIOD AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS ACROSS OUR AREA AND A SERIES OF
SYSTEMS TRACK EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION WITH THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT ONES BEING EARLY THURSDAY AND SATURDAY.
MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS. WENT WITH CHANCE POPS MOST PERIODS WITH
LIKELY POPS ACROSS OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
MOST AREAS FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL VALUES EARLY ON...BUT WILL BECOME
COOLER TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 210600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1244 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
RAPID REFRESH AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST EASTERN ILLINOIS BOW ECHO
WILL BE NEAR LAF AND HUF AROUND 06Z AND TO IND AND BMG AROUND 08Z.
SO...WILL HAVE A TEMPO MVFR THUNDERSTORM GROUP FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AT
EACH SITE AND ALSO A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS.
AFTER THAT...COVERAGE LOOKS TO LOW TO MENTION ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.
MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS WERE THEN SHOWING AN INCREASE IN NEAR SURFACE
MOISTURE THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT AND TIL AROUND 15Z.
SO...COULD SEE STRATUS BEHIND THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...BUT NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH CEILINGS WITH LACK OF STRONG LOW LEVEL
INVERSION PER RAP SOUNDINGS.
WILL TIME THE COLD FRONT TO LAF AROUND 15Z...IND AND HUF AROUND 18Z
AND BMG AROUND 00Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND BECOMING LIGHT AFTER DARK.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...MK/JH
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
327 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
A MEANDERING FRONTAL ZONE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER NEARBY FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA HAS
BEEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING WITH TIME. STILL SOME POCKETS OF HIGH
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CURRENTLY
EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST INDIANA...THROUGH FAR SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...AND THEN BACK INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER WESTERN ILLINOIS/NORTHERN MISSOURI
ALONG THE TAIL END OF THIS BOUNDARY.
CURRENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATER TODAY
ALONG COLD FRONT IS LESS CLEAR CUT BASED ON CURRENT ACTIVITY.
STEEP LAPSE RATES OBSERVED ON LAST EVENING/S UPPER AIR HAVE LIKELY
BEEN WORKED OVER...SO THINK SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR TODAY HAS
DIMINISHED. POSSIBLE SOME OF THE ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN ILLINOIS
MAY MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST ZONES LATER THIS MORNING. MODEL DATA
ALSO SUGGEST SOME DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER
ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS TODAY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR TODAY MAY BE TOO
WARM. WILL NUDGE THE GUIDANCE HIGHS DOWN A FEW DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
MODEL DATA SUGGEST FRONT WILL STALL OUT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER FOR A
TIME EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO DRIFT BACK NORTH TOWARDS
MORNING. LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE FOCUSED MUCH FARTHER WEST
TONIGHT...SO DON/T THINK ANY NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE
WIDESPREAD. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
IN THE SOUTH.
REMNANTS OF FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. LAPSE RATES
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...A GOOD FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL BE LACKING WITH
THE BETTER FORCING FARTHER NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. IT IS
POSSIBLE SOME CONVECTION MAY SNEAK INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT FROM
THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST. BASED ON ABOVE...WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE
POPS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...PROBABLY STALLING OUT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER TUESDAY NIGHT.
WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS AT THOSE TIMES AS WELL.
BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...THE GFS TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE IN THE LATER PERIODS OF THE SHORT TERM LOOK OK AT THIS
POINT. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS PLANNED.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST USA DURING
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM...SETTING UP A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA. BY NEXT WEEKEND A TROUGH MAY DIG INTO THE AREA.
THIS FLOW WILL ALLOW A SURFACE FRONT TO STALL OUT ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA THROUGH THE EXTENDED. AS UPPER WAVES INTERACT WITH THE
FRONT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. MORE
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...WITH SOME COOLER CONDITIONS PERHAPS ARRIVING FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 210600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1244 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
RAPID REFRESH AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST EASTERN ILLINOIS BOW ECHO
WILL BE NEAR LAF AND HUF AROUND 06Z AND TO IND AND BMG AROUND 08Z.
SO...WILL HAVE A TEMPO MVFR THUNDERSTORM GROUP FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AT
EACH SITE AND ALSO A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS.
AFTER THAT...COVERAGE LOOKS TO LOW TO MENTION ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.
MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS WERE THEN SHOWING AN INCREASE IN NEAR SURFACE
MOISTURE THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT AND TIL AROUND 15Z.
SO...COULD SEE STRATUS BEHIND THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...BUT NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH CEILINGS WITH LACK OF STRONG LOW LEVEL
INVERSION PER RAP SOUNDINGS.
WILL TIME THE COLD FRONT TO LAF AROUND 15Z...IND AND HUF AROUND 18Z
AND BMG AROUND 00Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND BECOMING LIGHT AFTER DARK.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...MK/JH
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1244 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
A REMNANT TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO
TONIGHT. THEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
AND LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN MORE PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1007 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK...SO NO CHANGES. LATEST RADAR
MOSAIC SHOWS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA COULD START SEEING SOME PRECIP WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION MOVING IN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE ONLY COUNTY STILL UNDER SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER IS WARREN COUNTY. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN IOWA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN AND IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES OF CENTRAL INDIANA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH INITIALLY SHOWING THIS SYSTEM
TO BE QUITE PROGRESSIVE AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE CENTRAL CWA DURING
THE WEE EARLY HOURS SUNDAY MORNING...THEN BEGINS TO SLOW DOWN AND
POSSIBLY EVEN STALL OUT AS IT DROPS SOUTH OF THE I 70 CORRIDOR.
TRIED TO DEPICT POPS IN THE FORECAST AS IN THE HRRR AND OTHER NEAR
TERM GUIDANCE WITH HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THEN SLOWLY MOVING THIS SYSTEM SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT TIL IT REACHES THE SOUTHERN TWO TO THREE
TIERS OF COUNTIES OF THE CWA AND EITHER SLOWS DOWN...WEAKENS...OR
ALL TOGETHER JUST STALLS OUT AND LATER WEAKENS.
SEVERE WX THREAT FOR TONIGHT VERY MARGINAL WITH ONLY WARREN COUNTY
INCLUDED IN SPC/S DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK. SO SOME OF THESE STORMS DO HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL AS THE MAIN
THREATS. AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING NOT TO BE
DISCOUNTED IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SEEMS REASONABLE AS
THE NUMBERS ARE COMING IN SIMILAR FOR LOWS AROUND 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THAT MORNING. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT IS POSSIBLE WITH THE
FRONT...AND THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS BEEN
SHUNTED SOUTHWARD BASED ON THE FASTER TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...SO NOW
THE ONLY COUNTIES IN THE DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK FOR KIND CWA LIE JUST
SOUTH OF THAT COMMON DIVIDING LINE THAT IT THE I 70 CORRIDOR.
BASICALLY KEEPING HIGHER CHANCE POPS ACROSS THIS AREA TO THE SOUTH
AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO ZERO POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES.
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THE FRONT MAY SAG FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH FOR A
LULL IN THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT...BUT WILL KEEP SOME SMALL/WEAK
CHANCES FOR POPS GOING SUNDAY NIGHT IN CASE THE FRONT ENDS UP MORE
STATIONARY.
APPEARS THE FRONT WILL BEGIN DRIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH DURING
MONDAY AND TUESDAY SO WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. ALSO BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES...APPEARS TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL BE GETTING
INTO THAT UNCOMFORTABLE RANGE AGAIN WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S
(OR HIGHER EVEN?) POSSIBLE...AND HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST USA DURING
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM...SETTING UP A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA. BY NEXT WEEKEND A TROUGH MAY DIG INTO THE AREA.
THIS FLOW WILL ALLOW A SURFACE FRONT TO STALL OUT ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA THROUGH THE EXTENDED. AS UPPER WAVES INTERACT WITH THE
FRONT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. MORE
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...WITH SOME COOLER CONDITIONS PERHAPS ARRIVING FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 210600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1244 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
RAPID REFRESH AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST EASTERN ILLINOIS BOW ECHO
WILL BE NEAR LAF AND HUF AROUND 06Z AND TO IND AND BMG AROUND 08Z.
SO...WILL HAVE A TEMPO MVFR THUNDERSTORM GROUP FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AT
EACH SITE AND ALSO A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS.
AFTER THAT...COVERAGE LOOKS TO LOW TO MENTION ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.
MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS WERE THEN SHOWING AN INCREASE IN NEAR SURFACE
MOISTURE THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT AND TIL AROUND 15Z.
SO...COULD SEE STRATUS BEHIND THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...BUT NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH CEILINGS WITH LACK OF STRONG LOW LEVEL
INVERSION PER RAP SOUNDINGS.
WILL TIME THE COLD FRONT TO LAF AROUND 15Z...IND AND HUF AROUND 18Z
AND BMG AROUND 00Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND BECOMING LIGHT AFTER DARK.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF/TDUD
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...MK/JH
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1151 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
COLD FRONT MAKING RAPID PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE AIRMASS
BECOMING MORE STABLE BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT THE STORMS TO
TRANSITION TO A BIG WIND THREAT AS THEY PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST BUT
FOR CENTRAL IOWA...STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY 02Z WITH CLEARING
SKIES ACROSS THE EAST BY 03Z. THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT WILL BE
QUIET.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
FORECAST PROBLEM FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA. AT
20Z THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM OMAHA TO
ATLANTIC THEN NORTHEAST TO FORT DODGE TO FOREST CITY. THE MAIN
AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH
WHERE IT HAS BEEN SUNNY ALL DAY AND HAS BEEN ABLE TO REALLY
DESTABILIZE. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS AN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT WITH
5000-6000 CAPES ACROSS THE AREAS WEST OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF I-80.
ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES TO THIS AREA THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD RAPIDLY
DEVELOP AND BECOME SEVERE. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE DES
MOINES METRO AREA WILL BE ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE DEVELOPMENT
SO BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z WE SHOULD SEE STORMS BLOW UP. STRONG LOW
LEVEL SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR ROBUST
UPDRAFTS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES. LARGE HAIL WILL
ALSO BE A THREAT. THE STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A WIND
THREAT AS WELL BUT THAT MAY BE EAST/SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
THE STORMS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 06Z HOWEVER THE HRRR IS
INDICATING A SECONDARY LINE DEVELOPING ALONG THE 850 FRONT AND
PUSHING SOUTH BEFORE STALLING NEAR THE IA/MO BORDER. IF THIS
HAPPENS SOUTHERN IOWA WILL BE GETTING SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THAT SECOND SHOT OF RAINFALL SO
I HAVE GRIDS CLEARING AFTER 06Z.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY ON SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SOUTH OF IOWA IN THE MORNING. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL STRENGTHEN A
SURFACE LOW IN THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW LIFTING A WARM
FRONT NORTH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
NEAR THE FRONT LATE IN THE DAY WITH CONVECTION BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. INSTABILITY AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST MONDAY.
WARM FRONT LOOKS TO SETUP ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI ON
TUESDAY...GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTH AND PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IS THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME FOR
PRECIPITATION.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD FESTER THROUGH THE DAY AIDED BY MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW AND NEARBY FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WITH WEST AND NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW...MULTIPLE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND A SURFACE FRONT SUPPORTING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...21/06Z
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE SITES OVERNIGHT
WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND CIGS REMAINING VFR.
SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
SITES THAT HAD AN ABUNDANCE OF RAIN THIS EVENING FOR DEVELOPMENT.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ON SUNDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHERLY.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...FAB
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...ANGLE
AVIATION...DONAVON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1202 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS AS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. NEAR THE SURFACE, A NEAR STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CONUS TODAY WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING EAST
OVER NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON WHILE A STRONGER WAVE WAS MOVING OVER
MONTANA. A COOL FRONT WAS SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTH FROM EASTERN COLORADO
INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE SOUTH A LITTLE MORE EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE
BECOMING STATIONARY AND THEN SLOWLY LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH LATER
TONIGHT. THE RAP AND HRRR MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION BREAKING
OUT ALONG THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE ARE THE ONLY MODELS
THAT DO SO AS THE HIRES ARW/NMM MODELS AS WELL AS THE OPERATIONAL
NAM AND GFS KEEP THINGS DRY. THE MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING
A TENDENCY FOR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES TO BE REACHED IN CENTRAL
KANSAS WHICH WOULD EXPLAIN THE CONVECTION. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY IN CENTRAL KANSAS. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE
FAIRLY MILD IN THE MID 60S ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER TO THE LOWER
70S IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON SUNDAY BUT SHOULD NOT HAVE
QUITE THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT AS TODAY. IN SPITE OF THIS, WARMER AIR
IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BE SPREADING OUT OF THE WEST AS THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WEST MOVES TOWARD THE PLAINS.
HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE VERY WARM...IN THE 95-100 DEGREE RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE SHIFTING WESTWARD INTO THE
ROCKIES BY THURSDAY AND THEN AMPLIFYING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL GENERALLY BE A HOT PATTERN,
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. WEAK COLD FRONTS MAY GET
CLOSE ENOUGH TO WESTERN KANSAS LATE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY,
PARTICULARLY NEAR INTERSTATE 70 SO THAT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. BUT THESE STORMS OUGHT TO BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED; AND
GIVEN THE WEAK WINDS AT UPPER LEVELS, WILL PROBABLY NOT BE
SEVERE OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST. IF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE RETROGRADES BACK OVER UTAH BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
THE MODELS SUGGEST, THEN HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD DROP BACK INTO
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S STARTING FRIDAY, ALONG WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES. BUT UNTIL THEN, EXPECT
HIGHS TO BE IN THE 90S TO POSSIBLY NEAR 100F, WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS OVERNIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED OUT FROM
SOUTHWEST KANSAS NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. WINDS SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE SOUTHERLY 5 TO 15KT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT
BACK TO THE NORTH SUNDAY TURNING WINDS SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION WHILE INCREASING UP TO AROUND 15 TO 25KT BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 71 96 71 96 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 70 101 71 99 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 69 100 69 97 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 69 97 70 96 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 73 101 72 97 / 0 10 10 10
P28 73 96 73 95 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
330 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
TODAY/S FORECAST IS A BIT MORE COMPLICATED THAN I WOULD LIKE DUE
TO UPSTREAM MCS AND THE EFFECT IT/S DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL HAVE ON
POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY ACROSS OUR AREA.
BASED ON RAW EXTRAPOLATION...THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY OVER INDIANA WILL BE ENTERING OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES BY
AROUND DAWN. I EXPECT THIS LINE TO WEAKEN BUT A SMALL POP WILL BE
INCLUDED UP NORTH EARLY ON TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY.
CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
MORNING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT DESTABILIZATION
EARLY ON IN THE DAY DRAWING INTO QUESTION THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS SHOWN TO TAKE PLACE SO QUICKLY IN THE
21/00Z NAM OVER INDIANA AND OHIO. RECENT HRRR AND 21/00Z HIRES NMM
SEEM MORE REASONABLE IN HOLDING OFF ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. IT IS AT THIS TIME THAT
AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY...AND THEY COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG AS THEY HAVE A RICH
FUEL SOURCE OF LOW 70 DEGREE SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO TAP INTO. SPC
CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK
AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN OUR LOCAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST
AND WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING. LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES MAY THEN BE
THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THESE SHOULD REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE ANOTHER CONCERN DURING THE SHORT TERM.
CLOUD COVER EARLY IN THE DAY TODAY SHOULD SLOW OUR RISE A
BIT...BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPS TO REACH AROUND 90 BY AFTERNOON AND
THEN AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH DEWPOINTS PROGGED TO RISE INTO
THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START OUT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS RIDGE WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND GET DIRECTED TOWARD THE EAST...AS TRAVERSING
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY PROVIDES GLANCING BLOWS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TOWARDS THE MIDDLE AND ESPECIALLY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK...THE RIDGE WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING FOR MORE TROUGHING TO RESIDE ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO PLENTY OF HEAT
AND HUMIDITY EARLY ON...ALONG WITH THE DAILY THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS...MOST LIKELY PEAKING WITHIN THE NORMAL DIURNAL
REGIME...ALTHOUGH AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...LARGER THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX ACTIVITY WILL ALSO PLAY A ROLE. HIGHS WILL PEAK IN THE LOW
90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE TAKING A BIT OF A
HIT AS A SHEARED OUT COLD FRONT ATTEMPTS TO MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HIGHS WILL DROP BACK INTO MAINLY THE 80S FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WORKWEEK...WITH SOME RELIEF FROM THE HUMIDITY BY THE
START OF NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 142 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS BEGUN TO FORM NOW THAT CLOUDS ARE SCATTERING
OUT. HOWEVER...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE STREAMING IN
QUICKLY FROM AN UPSTREAM THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX. THIS SHOULD ACT TO
LIMIT THE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND LIKELY CAUSE IMPROVING CONDITIONS
WHERE FOG HAS ALREADY SET UP. OTHERWISE...A WARM AND HUMID DAY IS
ON THE WAY FOR SUNDAY. THERE REMAINS A POSSIBILITY FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT THIS TIME FOR MORE THAN A
VCTS/CB MENTION IN THE TAFS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...ABE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
449 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE NRN
CONUS WITH A SHORTWAVE NOTED UPSTREAM OVER THE NRN MN. LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA HAS RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING.
TODAY...WEAK SFC RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE AREA WILL ALLOW LAKE
BREEZES TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. AT SAME TIME MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS
MLCAPE VALUES COULD CLIMB NEAR 500 J/KG OVER MAINLY THE SCNTRL FCST
AREA FROM NEAR ESC TO CRYSTAL FALLS. THIS INSTABILITY ALONG WITH THE
FOCUS PROVIDED BY THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES MAY BE ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER SOME ISOLD SHRA/TSRA OVER THE SCNTRL FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY
WITH MODELS SHOWING HINT OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY FARTHER NORTH AND
SOME MID LEVEL CAPPING NEAR 700 MB...NO AFTERNOON PCPN IS EXPECTED
OVER THE REST OF THE CWA. LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 60S NORTH AND EAST TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE WISCONSIN
BORDER COUNTIES.
TONIGHT...MID-LVL RIDGING MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP THE FCST
AREA DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. INCREASING Q-VECT CONVERGENCE
AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING IN A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA TO THE FAR
WESTERN CWA TOWARD 12Z MONDAY. HIGHER DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S
ADVECTING IN WITH A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF PLAINS SYSTEM
WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO MORE FOG/STRATUS FORMATION ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT OVER THE EAST HALF OF UPPER
MI...DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE SETUP FOR MON WHEN TWO WAVES (ONE W OF
OR AND WA AND ANOTHER OVER BC CANADA) MERGE AND SEND A POTENT
SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE REGION. WHILE THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT/VARIABILITY...MODELS GENERALLY INDICATE A LOW AROUND
1000MB MOVING FROM CENTRAL/SRN MN TO THE CENTRAL U.P. MON
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM LOOKS
TO HANG UP OVER CENTRAL OR NRN WI...WHICH IS SUFFICIENT TO KEEP
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE CWA. THE FORECAST FOR MON IS
EXTREMELY DEPENDENT ON CONVECTION AND EXACTLY WHERE THE WARM FRONT
SETS UP. MORNING CONVECTION WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE
COMPLICATION...WITH AN UNKNOWN LEVEL OF CLEARING/DESTABILIZATION.
CURRENT THINKING CONTINUES TO BE THAT EITHER A STRONG CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX OR CLUSTER OF SUPERCELL STORMS WILL MOVE S OF THE CWA IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...IF THE FRONT SURGES FARTHER N OR IF
ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP...SHEAR WILL BE VERY STRONG AND THE
OVERALL SYSTEM QUITE POTENT SO SEVERE STORMS WOULD LIKELY
RESULT...WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES ALL
CONDITIONALLY POSSIBLE. IT SEEMS THAT SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WI/MI
REGION (LIKELY FROM CENTRAL WI TO LOWER MI) WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE EVENT. AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A MORE
CLIMATOLOGICAL APPROACH (WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM)
WHICH KEEP STRONGER STORMS S OF THE CWA AND WILL NOT PUT ANY
STRONG/SEVERE EMPHASIS INTO THE HWO.
SHOULD SEE GRADUALLY CLEARING CONDITIONS BY TUE MORNING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THE CENTRAL U.S.. SHOULD SEE MARINE FOG NEAR ERN
LAKE SUPERIOR MON NIGHT AS NW WINDS BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE SWEEP FOG
ONSHORE. OTHERWISE...SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL ON TUE.
NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SOME THUNDER ARRIVES ON WED
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES OFF AND ON THROUGH THU AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. LIMITED THUNDER POTENTIAL TO SLIGHT CHANCES GIVEN
LIMITED INSTABILITY.
AN UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO BECOME DOMINANT OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR COOLER CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE DRIER
AIR ARRIVES. UNTIL THEN...VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED AT ALL
THE TAF SITES INTO SUN MORNING BEFORE A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
TAKES PLACE SUN AFTERNOON AND LASTS INTO SUN EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL KEEP WINDS UNDER 20
KTS. A LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
MONDAY INTO MON EVENING. COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW
WILL SUPPORT WNW WINDS 20 TO 30 KTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING...STRONGEST OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH PRES
BUILDING BACK OVER THE AREA WILL THEN KEEP WINDS LIGHT AGAIN FROM
LATE TUE INTO THU.
LINGERING LOW-LVL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT FOG ACROSS THE LAKE...THAT
COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE FROM TODAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
353 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE NRN
CONUS. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE LARGE AREA OF RAIN
THROUGH UPPER MI WAS EXITING THE AREA LEAVING MAINLY JUST PATCHY
LIGHT RAIN OF DRIZZLE OVER THE NORTH AND EAST. ANOTHER TRAILING
SHRTWV OVER NE MN SUPPORTED SCT SHRA FROM THE MN ARROWHEAD INTO WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR. OTHER UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES WERE LOCATED OVER NRN ND
AND SE SASK.
TONIGHT...EXPECT ISOLD/SCT -SHRA INTO THE CWA THIS EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MN SHRTWV THAT SHOULD DIMINISH AND END AFTER
03Z. OTHERWISE...WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION...PATCHY FOG WILL SHOULD DEVELOP. NNW UPSLOPE 10-15 KNOT 950-
900 MB FLOW INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI MAY ALSO SUPPORT SOME DRIZZLE
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
SUN...THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SASK/ND SHRTWVS EARLY OVER THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A WEAK SFC
RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH MAINLY LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING LAKE
BREEZES TO DEVELOP. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES COULD CLIMB
INTO THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE OVER MAINLY THE SRN CWA FROM NEAR IMT-
MNM. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME SHRA/TSRA TO
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE MI BREEZE BOUNDARY. WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY FARTHER NORTH AND SOME MID LEVEL CAPPING NEAR 700
MB...NO AFTERNOON PCPN IS EXPECTED OVER THE REST OF THE CWA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE SETUP FOR MON WHEN TWO WAVES (ONE W OF
OR AND WA AND ANOTHER OVER BC CANADA) MERGE AND SEND A POTENT
SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE REGION. WHILE THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT/VARIABILITY...MODELS GENERALLY INDICATE A LOW AROUND
1000MB MOVING FROM CENTRAL/SRN MN TO THE CENTRAL U.P. MON
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM LOOKS
TO HANG UP OVER CENTRAL OR NRN WI...WHICH IS SUFFICIENT TO KEEP
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE CWA. THE FORECAST FOR MON IS
EXTREMELY DEPENDENT ON CONVECTION AND EXACTLY WHERE THE WARM FRONT
SETS UP. MORNING CONVECTION WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE
COMPLICATION...WITH AN UNKNOWN LEVEL OF CLEARING/DESTABILIZATION.
CURRENT THINKING CONTINUES TO BE THAT EITHER A STRONG CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX OR CLUSTER OF SUPERCELL STORMS WILL MOVE S OF THE CWA IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...IF THE FRONT SURGES FARTHER N OR IF
ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP...SHEAR WILL BE VERY STRONG AND THE
OVERALL SYSTEM QUITE POTENT SO SEVERE STORMS WOULD LIKELY
RESULT...WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES ALL
CONDITIONALLY POSSIBLE. IT SEEMS THAT SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WI/MI
REGION (LIKELY FROM CENTRAL WI TO LOWER MI) WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE EVENT. AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A MORE
CLIMATOLOGICAL APPROACH (WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM)
WHICH KEEP STRONGER STORMS S OF THE CWA AND WILL NOT PUT ANY
STRONG/SEVERE EMPHASIS INTO THE HWO.
SHOULD SEE GRADUALLY CLEARING CONDITIONS BY TUE MORNING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THE CENTRAL U.S.. SHOULD SEE MARINE FOG NEAR ERN
LAKE SUPERIOR MON NIGHT AS NW WINDS BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE SWEEP FOG
ONSHORE. OTHERWISE...SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL ON TUE.
NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SOME THUNDER ARRIVES ON WED
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES OFF AND ON THROUGH THU AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. LIMITED THUNDER POTENTIAL TO SLIGHT CHANCES GIVEN
LIMITED INSTABILITY.
AN UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO BECOME DOMINANT OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR COOLER CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE DRIER
AIR ARRIVES. UNTIL THEN...VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED AT ALL
THE TAF SITES INTO SUN MORNING BEFORE A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
TAKES PLACE SUN AFTERNOON AND LASTS INTO SUN EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL
DOMINATE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. WITH WEAK
HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT
OF THE AREA TONIGHT...LIGHTER WINDS WILL FOLLOW FOR THE LAST HALF
THE WEEKEND. THESE LIGHT WINDS...UNDER 20KT...WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THRU THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK SUMMERTIME PRES GRADIENT
SHOULD PREVAIL.
THE RAIN TODAY WILL SUPPORT FOG ACROSS THE LAKE...THAT COULD BE
LOCALLY DENSE. EXPECT THE FOG TO LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO
A LACK OF STRONG ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
129 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE NRN
CONUS. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE LARGE AREA OF RAIN
THROUGH UPPER MI WAS EXITING THE AREA LEAVING MAINLY JUST PATCHY
LIGHT RAIN OF DRIZZLE OVER THE NORTH AND EAST. ANOTHER TRAILING
SHRTWV OVER NE MN SUPPORTED SCT SHRA FROM THE MN ARROWHEAD INTO WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR. OTHER UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES WERE LOCATED OVER NRN ND
AND SE SASK.
TONIGHT...EXPECT ISOLD/SCT -SHRA INTO THE CWA THIS EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MN SHRTWV THAT SHOULD DIMINISH AND END AFTER
03Z. OTHERWISE...WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION...PATCHY FOG WILL SHOULD DEVELOP. NNW UPSLOPE 10-15 KNOT 950-
900 MB FLOW INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI MAY ALSO SUPPORT SOME DRIZZLE
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
SUN...THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SASK/ND SHRTWVS EARLY OVER THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A WEAK SFC
RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH MAINLY LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING LAKE
BREEZES TO DEVELOP. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES COULD CLIMB
INTO THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE OVER MAINLY THE SRN CWA FROM NEAR IMT-
MNM. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME SHRA/TSRA TO
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE MI BREEZE BOUNDARY. WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY FARTHER NORTH AND SOME MID LEVEL CAPPING NEAR 700
MB...NO AFTERNOON PCPN IS EXPECTED OVER THE REST OF THE CWA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BUT ITS
INFLUENCE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON MONDAY IS ACTUALLY TWO
SEPARATE WAVES AT THIS TIME...ONE OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE
OTHER OVER THE PACIFIC TO THE WEST OF OREGON. THESE TWO WAVES WILL
MERGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TOMORROW AND THEN QUICKLY SHIFT
EAST INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY. A LOW AVERAGING 1000MB WILL SLIDE
NORTHEAST...TRACKING FROM EASTERN WYOMING ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...TO
MINNESOTA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
ON MONDAY NIGHT. MUCH OF THE FORECAST DEPENDS BOTH ON THE TRACK OF
THE SHORTWAVE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ALONG THE WARM FRONT
AHEAD OF THE LOW. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING
ACROSS SOUTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN OR NORTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH THE WARM
FRONT LIKELY LOCATED IN NORTHERN/CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THAT IS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO CONTINUE TO SHOW LIKELY TO DEFINITE POPS SPREADING EAST
INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY MONDAY
EVENING AS THE MAIN FORCING MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE
POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT WILL DETERMINE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL...AS THAT WILL BE THE AREA WHERE THE NOSE OF THE 35-40KT
850MB JET AND INSTABILITY GRADIENT WILL BE LOCATED. WHILE SOME
MODELS DO TRY TO SHIFT IT NORTH INTO OUR AREA...BELIEVE THAT
CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE MCS THAT DEVELOPS UPSTREAM IN MINNESOTA ON
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SUPPRESS THE BOUNDARY FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.
ASSUMING THAT OCCURS...THE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THE GRADIENT SOMEWHERE IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. THINK THE LATEST DAY 3 OUTLOOK FROM SPC HAS A GOOD HANDLE
ON WHERE THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE AND GENERALLY TO THE SOUTH OF
THE U.P.. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT/CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA WHICH IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO
POTENTIAL EXPERIENCE SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WITH THE DYNAMICS OF
THE SYSTEM...IF THE INSTABILITY OR WARM FRONT SHIFTS FARTHER TO THE
NORTH...SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
AS THE LOW DEPARTS ON MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A WEST TO EAST
DIMINISHMENT OF POPS AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE TRENDED
WINDS UP BASED OFF ALL OF THE LATEST RUNS...WITH 925MB WINDS AROUND
35KTS. THAT WIND WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG ON MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE U.P.. THINK THE MAIN AREAS THAT WILL SEE FOG WILL BE
ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE ON MONDAY EVENING AND SHORELINES
ALONG CENTRAL/EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AS THE WINDS TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST AND PUSH THE FOG ONSHORE. WINDS WILL BE DECREASING ON
TUESDAY. THE AREA WILL BE UNDER WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA
FOR TUESDAY AND THEN DEPARTS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE PARENT HIGH MOVES
INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WHILE THE RIDGE IS OVER THE
AREA...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR NORMAL.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY...THROUGH THE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. WITH THE SOURCE REGION...AND THE WARM FRONT SITUATED OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...EXPECT MOISTURE TO BE LIMITED AND WILL ONLY
INCLUDE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS FOR THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE. INSTABILITY
IS ALSO LIMITED AND WILL KEEP VALUES CAPPED AT SLIGHT CHANCES...BUT
WILL NEED TO WATCH DIURNAL HEATING ON THURSDAY...WHICH COULD
INCREASE POTENTIAL SOME.
A WEAK HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE
FIRST PART OF FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO
THE AREA FOR LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WHILE THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD...THE MORE NOTABLE ITEM IS
THE AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND LIKELY CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE
ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLES SUPPORT THAT IDEA...AND EVEN SHOW HINTS OF THAT
TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE TOWARDS THE FOURTH OF JULY. IF THAT SETUP
OCCURS...THE U.P. WOULD EXPERIENCE A COOL AND DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER
FOR THE END OF JUNE AND START OF JULY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE DRIER
AIR ARRIVES. UNTIL THEN...VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED AT ALL
THE TAF SITES INTO SUN MORNING BEFORE A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
TAKES PLACE SUN AFTERNOON AND LASTS INTO SUN EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL
DOMINATE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. WITH WEAK
HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT
OF THE AREA TONIGHT...LIGHTER WINDS WILL FOLLOW FOR THE LAST HALF
THE WEEKEND. THESE LIGHT WINDS...UNDER 20KT...WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THRU THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK SUMMERTIME PRES GRADIENT
SHOULD PREVAIL.
THE RAIN TODAY WILL SUPPORT FOG ACROSS THE LAKE...THAT COULD BE
LOCALLY DENSE. EXPECT THE FOG TO LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO
A LACK OF STRONG ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1154 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
WE REMAIN WITHIN A BELT OF RATHER HEALTHY WESTERLIES TODAY...THOUGH
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WE ARE IN A ZONE OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING
IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE THAT PUSHED THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. AT THE SFC...A TROUGH WITH A WIND
SHIFT OVER TO THE NW HAD PUSHED TO ABOUT I-35 AS OF 230 PM. SPC MESO-
ANALYSIS SHOWS 500-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...VIEW OUT THE WINDOW AND ON VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THE CU
FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INSTABILITY HAS A RATHER STABLE LOOK TO
IT...SO NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME OF THE HI-RES CAMS /ESPECIALLY THE HRRR/ CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
SOME ISO/SCT SHOWERS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FROM EC MN INTO WC
MN...SO HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF 20/30 POPS THIS AFTERNOON IN OUR
EAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT.
NEXT AREA TO WATCH FOR PRECIP THIS EVENING IS WRN MN. IR IMAGERY
SHOWS A SHORT WAVE WORKING ACROSS NW SODAK. STARTING TO SEE STORMS
BUBBLE UP FROM NW SODAK INTO NC NODAK BENEATH A PLUME OF STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE HRRR HAS PICKED UP ON THIS BIT OF
FORCING...SHOWING A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND MAKING A RUN FOR WEST CENTRAL
MN BETWEEN 7PM AND 10PM. AS THESE STORMS RUN TOWARD MN...THE RAP
SHOWS MUCAPE WANING...SO THINK THESE WILL RUN OUT OF STEAM BEFORE
GETTING INTO MN...THOUGH WE MAY NEED TO GET SOME LOW PROBS FOR -SHRA
INTO OUR WEST THIS EVENING.
NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST IS A STRONG SHORTWAVE EVIDENT ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY THAT BETWEEN 7 AM AND 3 PM HAS GONE FROM OFF THE
OREGON COAST TO WRN MT. DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND CAMS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS WAVE KICKING OFF ANOTHER MCS OVER THE BLACK HILLS
TONIGHT THAT WILL DIVE SE TOWARD OMAHA. AS IT DOES SO...ITS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WILL BECOME A WARM FRONT THAT WILL BEGIN LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS NEBRASKA TOWARD SW MN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NAM/GFS SHOW A BAND
OF ENHANCED INSTABILITY /1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE/ DEVELOPING DURING
THE AFTERNOON MORE OR LESS ALONG THE UPPER MN RIVER VALLEY. SEEING
SOME INDICATIONS IN BOTH CAMS AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS OF SOME
ISO/SCT TYPE CONVECTION DEVELOPING SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITHIN THIS
INSTABILITY AXIS...SO HAVE LEFT SOME 20 POPS IN THERE TO ACCOUNT FOR
THAT...THOUGH EXPECT IT TO BE MAINLY DRY FOR SUNDAY.
FOR THE FOG THREAT TONIGHT...THINK NAM IS OVERDONE WITH THE AMOUNT
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IT HAS AND IS THEREFORE OVERDOING ITS FOG
POTENTIAL IN WRN WI. LIKE THE IDEA OF THE RAP/GFS WITH FOG THREAT
BEING PRIMARILY UP NE MN INTO NW WI.
FINALLY...DID BOOST HIGHS FOR SUNDAY A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA.
NAM/GFS SHOW US MIXING UP TO 800 MB...AND MIXING DOWN FROM THIS
LEVEL YIELDED POTENTIAL HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S...SO MIXED THAT
IN WITH OUR GOING FORECAST TO GET MOST FOLKS UP INTO THE LOW/MID 80S
FOR HIGHS SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM ARE CENTERED AROUND SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A DEEPENING SHORT WAVE PASSES
ACROSS THE FA. THIS RESULTS IN STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER SOUTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN LATE IN THE NIGHT.
MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET EXCEEDS 50
KNOTS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA MONDAY MORNING
ACCOMPANIED BY PW VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...ONCE AGAIN ABOVE
THE TOP OF KMPX SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY. THE LOW AND WARM FRONT
SHOULD PUSH RATHER QUICKLY ACROSS THE FA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY
WITH SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES LESSENING IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE SETUP SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY SHOULD YIELD A COMPLEX OF
STORMS PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND ADJOINING AREAS OF WI.
PROFILE DATA INDICATES A STRONG WARM LAYER DEVELOPING IN THE LOW
LEVELS DURING THE NIGHT WITH VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE CAPE (1500 J/KG)
BEING ABOVE 850 MB. HENCE...DUE TO THE STRONGLY VEERING WIND
PROFILE CONFIDENCE FOR HAIL IS HIGHER THAN WIND EARLY ON IN THIS
EVENT. IN ADDITION...THE 925-850MB FN VECTOR DIVERGENCE ALSO RUNS
ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR LEADING TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAIN MAY FALL. AT THIS POINT...CAMS THAT REACH OUT TO
MONDAY MORNING ARE SHOWING A COMPLEX OF STORMS PASSING ALONG THE
MN/IA BORDER. THEREFORE...COLLABORATION TODAY WAS TO BREAK POPS
INTO 3 HOUR GROUPS AND DRIVE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN
FA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY ARE DRY
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES BY. A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTH WITH SMALL CHANCES EXTENDING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OUR FA. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR THESE PERIODS. THE STRONG WESTERLY UPPER AIR PATTERN
IS STILL FORECAST TO BUCKLE LATE IN THE WEEK AND WEEKEND AS
RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS IN THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A PRETTY DEEP
TROUGH IN THE EAST. THIS TRANSITION PERIOD (FRIDAY AND SATURDAY)
WILL OFFER THE NEXT PERIOD OF HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL VALUES THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH A SMALL DOWNWARD TREND ON HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IS FOG POTENTIAL AT KRNH/KEAU OVERNIGHT AS
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD LEAD TO FOG FORMATION.
HOW DENSE THE FOG BECOMES IS THE MAIN ISSUE. WILL CONTINUE WITH
IFR CONDS AT BOTH KEAU/KRNH THRU 13Z /STARTING ARND 8Z/.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REST OF MPX CWA
WITH WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE WNW TONIGHT/SUNDAY...BECOMING SW
SUNDAY EVENING. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFT 6Z
MONDAY.
KMSP...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS THRU MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH
CONDS POSSIBLY LOWERING TO MVFR BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH
TSRA/SHRA. DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES ON TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...WILL KEEP VFR AT
THIS TIME WITH CIGS LOWERING TO 9K. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE WNW
TONIGHT/SUNDAY...BECOMING SW/S SUNDAY EVENING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. CHC MVFR WITH AM TSRA/SHRA. WIND S 5-10 KT BCMG NW 10KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW TO W AT 5 KT.
WED...VFR. CHC OF TSRA. WINDS E-SE 5 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...JLT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
451 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE ARKLAMISS AS WE
GO THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK...EVENTUALLY PEAKING OVER THE AREA LATER IN
THE WEEK. IN THE NEAR TERM...A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE JUST WEST OF THE
ARKLAMISS WILL HELP TO DRAW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THIS HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR WILL CIRCULATE THROUGH THE RIDGE AND HELP TO
INCREASE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN SPITE OF MOSTLY SUBSIDENT
ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LATE THIS
AFTN/EVNG SHOULD BE OVER THE PINE BELT WHERE COASTAL CONVERGENCE AND
LESS RIDGE INFLUENCE WILL BE FELT...A ALONG/W OF THE MS RIVER IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO RIDGE WEAKNESS. THE SPC SSEO REFLECTS THIS
GENERAL PATTERN AS DOES THE HRRR...ALTHOUGH THE HRRR SEEMS A BIT TOO
GENEROUS WITH COVERAGE. IN ANY CASE HAVE BOOSTED POPS UP ABOVE MOST
GUIDANCE VALUES IN THOSE AREAS...BUT THEY ARE STILL ON THE LOW SIDE.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SVR MICROBURSTS ASSUMING
THAT STORMS DEVELOP GIVEN STEEPER LAPSE RATES (VERTICAL TOTALS
~27-28, 0-3KM LAPSE RATES > 8.5 DEG C/KM). WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
MENTION OF SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARD PRODUCTS GIVEN VERY LIMITED
COVERAGE.
AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED...HEAT STRESS WILL BECOME A BIGGER CONCERN
GOING INTO MONDAY DUE TO THE INTENSIFYING RIDGE. FORECAST HEAT
INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH 105 BY MONDAY AFTN...SO WILL GO
AHEAD AND FORMALLY INTRODUCE A LIMITED THREAT FOR DANGEROUS HEAT
STRESS IN THE HWO/GRAPHICS. OTHERWISE...MORE ISOLATED/SCT DIURNAL
TSTM ACTIVITY MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS CAN BE
EXPECTED. MODELS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE GREATER INSTABILITY AND
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SVR MICROBURST ACTIVITY WITH STORMS LIKELY NOT
DISSIPATING UNTIL AFTER SUNSET IN HOT/HUMID AIRMASS. /EC/
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL OVERALL REMAIN INTACT OVER THE CWA
THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
DURING THIS TIME AS HIGHS PEAK IN THE MID 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S. THIS MAY RESULT IN DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES DURING
SEVERAL AFTERNOONS NEXT WEEK...PARTICULARLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON....AS THEY`RE PROGGED TO RANGE BETWEEN 100-105F.
THUS...I`LL MAINTAIN THE "LIMITED" POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON HEAT
INDICES REACHING TO NEAR 105F IN THE HWO FOR BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. OF COURSE... THIS COULD BE EXPANDED FOR LATER
IN THE WEEK IF NEEDED. WITH ALL THAT SAID...THIS LEVEL OF HEAT WILL
BE MONITORED DURING THE PERIOD AS HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE COULD INTERACT WITH CONVECTION ALONG THE
SEABREEZE TUESDAY. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY HELP TO INCREASE THE
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME. HENCE...THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
DURING THE PERIOD CURRENTLY LOOK TO FALL ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ROLL AROUND...MODELS ARE CURRENTLY IN
AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE BACK WEST OF THE
REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW A TROUGH TO BEGIN DIGGING SOUTH AND INTO
THE DEEP SOUTH DURING NEXT WEEKEND. /19/
&&
.AVIATION...STRATUS AND PATCHY AREAS OF FOG WILL BE LESS PREVALENT
THIS MORNING THAN IN RECENT DAYS GIVEN LIGHTER AND MORE WESTERLY FLOW
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
FOR THE MOST PART TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIMITED TSRA COVERAGE
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE JAN/HKS/MEI CORRIDOR. /EC/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 94 75 95 74 / 18 18 15 15
MERIDIAN 94 72 95 72 / 26 26 15 15
VICKSBURG 93 74 95 74 / 24 24 12 11
HATTIESBURG 94 75 95 75 / 26 26 27 23
NATCHEZ 92 74 93 75 / 26 26 22 20
GREENVILLE 93 75 96 75 / 12 12 11 6
GREENWOOD 94 74 96 75 / 10 10 14 9
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
EC/19/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
243 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
It was a typical June night over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures had cooled into the lower 70s, under
mostly clear skies and light southwesterly breezes.
A complex of thunderstorms were ongoing across northeast Missouri.
This feature threw an outflow boundary to the southwest, which
was moving into central Missouri. Convection was not developing
along the outflow, due to dry air in the mid levels, and strong
convective inhibition present within the Ozarks lower trop.
The hi-res ARW and NMM suggest that convection will eventually
fire along this boundary by 9-12z this morning. The HRRR along
with several other models keeps the Ozarks dry today. Given the
00z RAOB from last night, we will keep the forecast dry through
today, for the exception of some low end pops in central Missouri.
Look for temperatures to warm into the upper 80s and lower 90s
today.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
The summertime high attempts to build over the nation`s midsection
Monday through Thursday. This will bring sunshine, humidity, and hot
temperatures. Look for temperatures to range from the upper 80s to
the lower 90s on an afternoon basis through Thursday.
The periphery of the summertime high will act as a storm track for
a series of shortwave troughs. This storm track will reside across
northern Missouri or southern Iowa, so we will need to watch any
convection that may attempt to sneak into central Missouri. Right
now we`re going to keep precipitation chances in central Missouri
very conservative through Thursday. All other locations south of
Highway 54 can expect hot and dry weather through Thursday.
By Thursday night or Friday, the summer high re-positions across
the Mountain West, forcing northwest flow and a cold front into
southern Missouri. This will not only cool temperatures off, but
also bring our next widespread chance for showers and
thunderstorms.
Both the GFS and the ECMWF suggests precipitation chances to
continue through the upcoming weekend. It`s a little ways out to
get too specific about details, but we`ll have some chances going
in the forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1118 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
Low level wind shear will be the main concern for the terminals
through tonight, as a fairly strong low level jet overspreads the
region. Southwest winds will then become gusty by mid morning on
Sunday, continuing through sunset.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Boxell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
256 AM MDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...
QUIET WEATHER ACROSS OUR CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AS WE REMAIN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...WITH CONVECTION AT
NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET STILL DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTHEAST FROM
NORTHEAST WY INTO SOUTHWEST SD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE
FEATURES OF INTEREST...ONE SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO OR AND ANOTHER IN
SOUTHERN BC. THESE WAVES WILL PARTIALLY PHASE TOGETHER AND BRING
US A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE STORMS IN OUR EAST THIS AFTERNOON
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A MILES CITY TO ALZADA LINE. MOIST
ADVECTION ALREADY OCCURRING PER SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW UP THE HIGH
PLAINS WITH LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING PWATS TO AN INCH IN SOUTHEAST
MT. WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SFC WARM FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
OUR CWA THIS MORNING. THOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BECOME WELL-
MIXED AND DRIER ACROSS OUR WEST AND CENTRAL PARTS...MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BECOME DEEPER EAST OF SFC TROF. LATEST HRRR RUNS
SEEM VERY REASONABLE IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION IN OUR FAR EAST BY
AROUND 19Z AS CAPES BUILD TO 1500+ J/KG. INSTABILITY AND PLENTIFUL
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR ARE SUGGESTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS IN THIS AREA
THROUGH AROUND 00Z...BY WHICH THE PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROF SHOULD
SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
MAIN THREATS BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A TORNADO EITHER ESPECIALLY IF
SFC DEW PTS CLIMB TO NEAR 60F. AGAIN THIS POTENTIAL IS IN OUR FAR
EAST AND STORMS MAY INITIATE AS EARLY AS 19Z.
OTHER AREA OF CONCERN IS OUR WEST AS SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT
INCREASES IN COMBINATION W/ A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. MAIN RISK IN
OUR WEST WILL BE WIND PER FRONTAL PUSH AND DEEPLY MIXED PRE-
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER...IE A COMBINATION OF CONVECTIVE AND
FRONTAL WINDS...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SMALL HAIL AS WELL. FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT LVM-3HT BY LATE AFTERNOON THEN BIL/SHR
DURING THE EVENING.
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT ALL OF THESE POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN HWO
AND GRAPHIC.
TEMPS TODAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S IN PRE-FRONTAL REGIME...WITH
HIGHS BACK DOWN TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S MONDAY. COULD SEE SOME
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND WEAKER STORMS IN OUR WEST TOMORROW.
ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD TO OUR SOUTHEAST BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS NEXT
AREA OF PV COMES OFF THE PACIFIC AND SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET
BEGINS TO ADVECT MOISTURE BACK TO SOUTHEAST MT. NO SEVERE WX
ANTICIPATED MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.
JKL
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD KEEPS AN UNSETTLED BUT WARM ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY A FEW DAYS LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY
INDICATED. MODELS SHOW EPISODES OF EASTERLY FLOW AT THE LOW LEVELS
DURING THIS PERIOD WHICH WILL PROVIDE HIGHER DEWPOINTS SUPPORTING
THE THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES DURING THIS
PERIOD IS LESS CERTAIN BUT HAVE THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED EACH DAY
AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH CAPE VALUES TO SEE IF SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE
PERIOD IN THE MID 80S FOR MOST PLACES.
MODELS SHOWING THE RIDGE BEGINNING TO ASSERT ITS INFLUENCE FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY OVER WESTERN MONTANA WHICH LOOKS TO DISRUPT
THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA. PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED WARMUP LOOKS A BIT SLOWER BUT STILL SHOULD BEGIN TO
APPROACH 90 BY SUNDAY...POSSIBLY SATURDAY FOR A FEW AREAS. WILL
SEE A DRYING TREND DURING THE WEEKEND. BORSUM
&&
.AVIATION...
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS TO START THE DAY WITH A FEW MID LEVEL
CLOUDS. TWO AREAS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF A KMLS TO K4BQ LINE WITH STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH VERY STRONG WINDS. A
SECOND AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS WITH STORMS NOT
AS INTENSE BUT ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BRING A
THREAT OF STRONG WIND GUSTS. THESE STORMS WILL IMPACT KLVM AROUND
21Z AND REACH KBIL AROUND 23Z. BORSUM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 086 055/078 056/081 057/083 060/090 063/088 062/086
2/T 41/B 23/T 32/T 21/B 11/U 11/U
LVM 084 048/077 050/081 050/084 053/090 055/089 054/087
2/T 42/T 33/T 32/T 21/B 11/U 11/U
HDN 088 054/080 055/083 058/085 060/092 062/089 061/087
1/B 31/B 33/T 33/T 21/B 11/B 11/U
MLS 087 057/078 057/081 057/082 059/087 060/086 060/083
2/T 51/B 33/T 33/T 22/T 22/T 21/U
4BQ 086 055/077 056/079 056/081 059/087 061/087 059/083
2/T 31/B 43/T 43/T 32/T 22/T 21/U
BHK 083 054/075 054/078 055/078 056/082 059/082 056/079
4/T 52/T 23/T 44/T 33/T 33/T 32/T
SHR 086 052/076 052/079 053/080 054/087 057/086 056/082
1/B 20/B 23/T 32/T 22/T 22/T 21/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1258 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOW THE AREA SITTING UNDER GENERALLY
ZONAL FLOW...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS SETTLED OVER THE SWRN
COAST...WHILE LOW PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE IS MOVING ACROSS NRN MN INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH IT BEING RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE AREA. AS EXPECTED...THE FRONT HAS GRADUALLY SAGGED SOUTH
THROUGH THE DAY...AND CURRENTLY SITS ACROSS THE FAR SERN CORNER OF
THE CWA. STARTING AROUND MID MORNING...HAD A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND RUMBLES OF THUNDER DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...ENDED UP THROWING
SOME SLIGHT POPS IN THE FORECAST. SINCE THEN...HASNT BEEN ANY
INCREASE IN ACTIVITY...WITH THE SPC MESO PAGE SHOWING CAPPING IN
PLACE WITH 700MB TEMPS AROUND 14C. HASNT BEEN ANY SURPRISES WITH
TEMPERATURES OR DPTS...WITH 3 PM OBS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S IN
THE FAR NORTH TO MID 90S IN THE SOUTHEAST. HEAT INDEX VALUES HAVE
REACH NEAR 100 IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST.
THE RAP AND HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON
/BANKING ON A WEAKENING CAP/ THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE EXTREME SE CORNER OF THE CWA...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY SOME SLIGHT POPS IN THAT AREA...OTHER MODELS
SHOW NOTHING DEVELOPING. OUTSIDE OF THAT...THE EVENING HOURS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE DRY. LATER TONIGHT AND INTO A PORTION OF THE DAY
TOMORROW...CONTINUED TO CARRY THE POPS ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NRN HALF
OF THE CWA...WITH MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES. LITTLE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING...AND OVERALL COVERAGE...WITH THE
LATEST HRRR COMING IN WITH MORE ACTIVITY THAN BASICALLY ANY OTHER
MODEL. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW UPCOMING MODEL RUN TRENDS AND MONITOR
ACTIVITY TO THE W/NW THIS EVENING...AND ADJUST AS NECESSARY. AT
THIS POINT...KEPT THOSE POPS CONFINED TO AFTER 06Z...CONTINUING
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY TOMORROW...WITH A DRY AFTERNOON.
AT THE SFC...EXPECTING HIGHER PRESSURE TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT...RESULTING IN LIGHTER WINDS...BUT BECOMING MORE
E/SERLY WITH TIME. LOW PRESSURE BECOMES ORGANIZED TOMORROW OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO SET UP NEAR THE STATE LINE. MODELS SHOW THAT SERLY COMPONENT TO
THE WINDS REMAINING MAINLY OVER NEB...WITH MORE SRLY WINDS OVER NC
KS. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR
CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO TODAY...MID 80S IN THE NORTH...MID/UPPER 90S
IN THE S/SW. LOOKING AT HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 AGAIN
POSSIBLE ROUGHLY NEAR/SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING WILL BE NOTED OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
PERIOD AT 00 MONDAY. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH A STRENGTHENING RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS EXPECTED THURSDAY ONWARD. AS A RESULT...QUASI-ZONAL TO AT
TIME NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER OUR
AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH INCREASINGLY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW THURSDAY ONWARD.
STARTING WITH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...GUIDANCE
CONTINUES SHIFTING ANY APPRECIABLE CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA...MORE ALONG THE PRIMARY AXIS OF
ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. ALTHOUGH THE OPERATIONAL GFS
DOES SUGGEST A VERY ISOLATED AREA ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN
CWA COULD SEE PRECIPITATION EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THIS OUTPUT IS
THE OUTLIER WHEN COMPARED TO THE NAM AND EC WHICH BOTH KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION WELL TO OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST. GIVEN THIS...OPTED TO
GO AHEAD WITH DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS ALSO REMAIN IN THE FORECAST DURING THE DAY
MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING AS AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA PERSISTS
ACROSS THE REGION.
STARTING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO THE DAY
TUESDAY...A SUBTLE PERTURBATION ADVANCING EAST/NORTHEAST FROM THE
MID ROCKIES...MOST EVIDENT NEAR 700MB PER MODEL GUIDANCE...COULD
BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS IS A SOLUTION
SUPPORTED BY QPF FIELDS FROM THE NAM AND OPERATIONAL GFS...AND TO
A LESSER EXTENT THE EC. GIVEN THIS...OPTED TO GO AHEAD WITH 20-30%
POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...INCREASING
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP OVER OUR AREA
A THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE STRENGTHENS...THUS INCREASING THE
CHANCES FOR MULTIPLE SMALL-SCALE PERTURBATION TO CLEAR THE REGION.
AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO
THE REALIZATION OF PRECIPITATION ON ANY GIVEN DAY DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD REMAINS LOW...BUT ITS HARD TO JUSTIFY A DRY FORECAST BASED
ON MODEL GUIDANCE AND AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD AND MAINTAINED
POPS...GENERALLY IN THE 20-40% RANGE...ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RESPECTABLE VALUES OF LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
MOISTURE...WORKING IN CONCERT WITH VARYING LAPSE RATES WITH THE
PASSAGE OF UPPER TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATIONS...WILL PRESENT
POTENTIAL ENERGY VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 1000-3000J/KG RANGE EACH
DAY DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD. DEEP-LAYER BULK SHEAR OF
~30KTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THE ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE REGION. THAT SAID...FORECAST
PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM THE ACROSS THE CWA...PER THE NAM AND
OPERATIONAL GFS...SUGGEST A HEALTHY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC CAPPING
INVERSION WILL BE PRESENT EACH DAY AND WITH OMEGA REMAINING ON THE
QUESTIONABLE SIDE...ITS HARD TO SAY THAT ANY ONE DAY HAS A GREATER
CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT. OBVIOUSLY...ANY DAY THAT
CAN REALIZE CONVECTIVE INITIALIZATION WILL HAVE AT LEAST A CHANCE
OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO DEFINITIVELY MENTION SUCH CONDITIONS IN THE HWO.
GIVEN THIS...FOR THE HWO...WILL SIMPLY STATE THAT SEVERE
CONVECTION IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION DURING THE LONG-TERM
FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART
OF NEXT WEEK.
PRE-FRONTAL WARMING AHEAD OF A BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE
COULD PRESENT A VERY WARM DAY ON MONDAY..WITH GUIDANCE CURRENTLY
SUGGESTING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE READINGS COULD SPIKE TO AROUND
100 DEGREES MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...AND MORE
INTO THE 90S FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. ITS IMPORTANT TO NOTE
THAT FRONTAL POSITION WILL PLAY A CRUCIAL ROLE IN TEMPERATURE
READINGS ON MONDAY AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED. THE
INFILTRATION OF A COOLER BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS POST-FROPA SHOULD
THEN ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOW 90S TO FINISH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
FINALLY...RESULTANT HEAT INDEX READINGS MONDAY AFTERNOON ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 100-105 RANGE ACROSS OUR KANSAS COUNTIES
AND AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE MENTIONING THIS IN THE HWO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
OUR EAST NORTHEAST WIND WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE EASTERLY AS WE
NEAR DAWN AND SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON. OVERALL
THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY BE A PROBLEM LATE
THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY FROM GRAND ISLAND EASTWARD AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET INCREASES AND PUSHES BACK NORTH. THERE WILL BE A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AROUND TODAY...BUT MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH CLOUD BASES AT OR ABOVE 4000 FT AGL.
CAN NOT RULE OUT THE CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM PRIMARILY THIS
MORNING...BUT TOO LOW OF A CHANCE TO INCLUDE IT IN THE TAF AT THIS
POINT IN TIME.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...WESELY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1152 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 6Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE SUNDAY DURING THE DAY ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 941 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015/
DISCUSSION...
FORECAST ON-TRACK. HRRR TAKES MINOR NORTHEAST TEXAS
CONVECTION NEAR/INTO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ZONES LATE
TONIGHT SUNDAY MORNING. LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.
GW
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...06
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
451 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
REMAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HOT TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
RETURN AS A STALLED FRONT REMAINS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK...THE HOT PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN AS
A TROUGH MOVES SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
0430 AM EDT UPDATE...CURRENT NEAR TERM FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. MADE
MINOR TWEAKS TO HR/LY TEMPS. ADDED AFTERNOON ISOL TSTMS ACROSS THE
WRN UPSTATE AND NE GA BASED ON LATEST CAM AND RAP TRENDS TOWARD LESS
CCL-LFC CIN LEVELS.
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFTS BACK INTO A MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME
CONFIG TODAY. SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL REASSERT ITSELF ACROSS THE SE
CONUS CREATING A DIFFUSE WIND PROFILE ALOFT. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW DEEP
NEGATIVE OMEGA OUTSIDE THE MTNS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LIMITED
AVAILABLE LLVL MOISTURE. YET THE OP MODELS ARE MIXED WRT TO AMOUNT
OF PARCEL DESTABILIZATION. THE NAM SHOWS A POTENTIAL OF THE SUBS
INVERSION BEING BROKE AND ISOL EXPLOSIVE STORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NON/MTNS. THE NAM ALSO HOLDS ONTO SOME MEASURE OF CIN ARND THE CCL THO.
THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND HAS UNBREAKABLE SBCIN AND NO POTENTIAL FOR
SIGFNT CONVECTION. WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE RAW MODELS FOR POP WHICH
KEEPS LESS THAN ISOL NON/MTNS ANS ISOL/SCT MTNS. THIS AGREES WELL
WITH THE SREF OUTPUT AND THE LATEST CAMS...BUT FUTURE UPDATES COULD
INTRODUCE ISOL CONVEC NON/MTNS. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...LIKELY M90S EAST AND U80S MTN VALLEYS. THE
BEST AFTERNOON TD MIXING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE ERN ZONES WHICH
WILL KEEP MENTION OF HI/S OUT OF THE HWO.
THE OVERNIGHT WILL FEATURE A QUICK REDUCTION OF DEBRIS CLOUDS AND
STEEP SFC-BASED INVERSIONS. MTN VALLEYS...MAINLY THE FRENCH BROAD AND
LITTLE TN...WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SUBJECT TO FG/BR ISSUES ARND
DAYBREAK...ESP WHERE PRECIP FALLS THIS EVENING. EVEN WITH GOOD RAD
COOLING THE ATMOS REMAINS RATHER STAGNANT WRT MIXING RATIOS...THUS
MINS WILL REMAIN A COUPLE CATS ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT SUNDAY...A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY. AN MCS
ORIGINATING IN THE UPPER MIDWEST MAY PASS JUST N OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT. OTHERWISE...ISOLD CONVECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED IN AND NEAR
THE MTNS IN LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD CONVERGENCE DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIODS. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WITH SOME HEAT INDEX VALUES
REACHING 100 TO 105 IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF MON AFTN.
STRONG UPPER HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON TUE AS THE BELT OF
BETTER WESTERLIES STAYS JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. 850 MB
WINDS WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY AND A PIEDMONT SFC TROUGH SHOULD
BECOME A BIT MORE PROMINENT. HOWEVER...MODEL PROFILES RETAIN QUITE A
BIT OF CAPPING AND NEGATIVE AREA ALOFT SO CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY BE MINIMIZED. WILL CONFINED ISOLD COVERAGE TO THE MTNS...BUT
TSTMS WILL BE STRONG ANY PLACE THEY MANAGE TO FORM. MAX TEMPS WILL
APPROACH 100 MAINLY ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 85.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM EDT SUNDAY...STRONG RIDGING CONTINUES ON WED BUT WITH A
POSSIBLE MCS TRACK SETTING UP IN THE WNW FLOW FROM THE MIDWEST TO
THE NC/VA LINE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE. THERE APPEARS TO BE A
TOUCH LESS CAPPING IN PROFILES...WHICH SHOULD PERMIT BETTER
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE DURING THE AFTN/EVENING. WILL FEATURE
A NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT IN POP WITH HIGH CHANCES OVER THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 NEARER ANY POSSIBLE MCS TRACKS
THROUGH WED EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF UPPER 90S TEMPS IS LIKELY WED
AFTN ACROSS THE SE HALF...WITH WELL ABOVE CLIMO MAXES/MINS
THROUGHOUT.
HEIGHTS SHOULD GRADUALLY FALL THU THROUGH FRI ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...BUT WITH THE REGION REMAINING IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD
OF ANY COLD FRONTS APPROACHING FROM THE N OR NW. MAXES/MINS REMAIN
10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO THU BUT THEN SLOWLY MODERATING WHILE STAYING
ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD
OVER THE DEVELOPMENT OF EASTERN TROUGHING BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS
SHOWS BROAD AND WEAK ERN TROUGHING WITH BETTER HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS MORE ROBUST EASTERN
TROUGHING WITH A CLOSED SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE TRENDED MORE ECMWF LIKE RECENTLY AND THE
FORECAST WILL LEAN IN THAT DIRECTION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A CATEGORY
ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH SATURDAY WITH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE PICKING UP AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES/ARRIVES FROM THE NW.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THRU THE PERIOD. BROAD ULVL RIDGING
WILL RETURN TO THE SE CONUS AND GOOD SUBS WILL KEEP VERTICAL CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT AT BAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH
SFC WINDS 5-9 KTS ALIGNING S OF WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...ONLY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE MORNING FG/BR AT KAVL AND
KHKY. SHUD BURN OFF QUICKLY AFT SUNRISE WITH GOOD SFC HEATING. DEEP
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP AFTERNOON CONVECTION LIMITED...MAINLY ISOL
ACROSS THE NC/GA/SC MTNS WITH NO TAF MENTION NEEDED AT KAVL.
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL MAINTAIN UPVALLEY AT KAVL AND SW/LY TO
W/LY ALL OTHER TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN DIURNAL INTO THE WORK
WEEK. AS A RESULT...THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA
WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN NC WHERE THE LEAST SUBSIDENCE WILL RESIDE.
MORNING RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG AND/OR STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE...
PARTICULARLY WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL THE PREVIOUS DAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
09-15Z 15-21Z 21-03Z 03-06Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 96% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...WITH YEARS IN WHICH THE
VALUES WERE LAST REACHED.
MONDAY JUNE 22...
AVL 94 1964
CLT 98 1956
GSP 99 2006
TUESDAY JUNE 23...
AVL 93 1988
CLT 98 1988
GSP 99 1988
WEDNESDAY JUNE 24...
AVL 94 1952
CLT 102 1930
GSP 100 1952
THURSDAY JUNE 25...
AVL 96 1952
CLT 102 1914
GSP 101 1952
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...SBK
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...SBK
CLIMATE...GSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
131 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HOT TEMPERATURES RETURNING AS
A STALLED FRONT REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION. BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK THE HOT PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN AS A TROUGH MOVES
SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
0530 UTC UPDATE...NO SIGFNT CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FCST GRIDS. SKY AND
POP WERE ADJ DOWN WHILE TEMPS AND TD/S WERE WITHIN THE DIURNAL FCST
CURVE MOST LOCALES.
0200 UTC UPDATE...A LINE OF SHOWERS NORTH OF KCLT POPPED-UP IN THE
LAST HOUR...BUT QUICKLY DISPERSED...LEAVING THE CWA NEARLY
SHOWER-FREE. REMNANTS OF THESE SHOWERS...THEMSELVES RELATED TO THE
OUTER RAIN BANDS OF THE REMNANTS OF TS BILL...ARE FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY PROGRESS SOUTH EASTWARD BEFORE COMPLETELY DISSIPATING.
REST OF UPDATES TO BLEND IN LATEST OBS FOR SKY AND TEMPERATURES.
AS OF 720 PM...MOST SHOWERS AND ALL LIGHTNING HAS LEFT THE AREA WITH
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS REMAINING...MOSTLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA. HRRR CONTINUES THE TREND OF DECLINING PRECIP SUNDAY
MORNING. UPDATED FORECAST TO CLEAR MOST PRECIPITATION AND UPDATE
WINDS AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS.
FOR THE OVERNIGHT...THE SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS
OF BILL WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY EARLY SUNDAY. LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE
CHANCES ON SUNDAY WILL BE LIMITED BY OVERALL WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND LOW
LEVEL CIN TO OVERCOME. HENCE...POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO ISOLATED IN
NATURE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WHERE CIN MAY BE OVERCOME WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING. WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW...TEMPS SHOULD HAVE NO
TROUBLE WARMING WELL INTO THE 90S EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH 80S
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...THE SHORT RANGE FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
SUNDAY EVENING AMIDST BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
THANKS TO STRENGTHENING UPPER ANTICYCLONE. THE SURFACE PATTERN
FEATURES AN ELONGATED/CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CONUS...WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT STRETCHES ALONG THE
OHIO VALLEY REGION NORTHWARD. CLOSER TO HOME...A TROF IN PLACE
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WILL WEAKEN INTO THE EVENING AS THE
PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
AFORE MENTIONED FRONT COULD STALL JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NAM ACTUALLY PROVIDING HINTS OF AN ONGOING
FRONTAL MCS MAKING A RUN AT THE NC MOUNTAINS. WITH UPPER HEIGHTS
BEING LOWEST AND ABUNDANT INSTABILITY BEING PRESENT ACROSS THESE
ZONES...CANNOT RULE OUT SUCH. EXPECTING ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY TO
STRUGGLE AS IT SLIDES DEEPER INTO THE SUBSIDENCE LAYER BY EARLY
MORNING MONDAY...IF IT SURVIVES A TRIP ACROSS THE MTNS IN THE FIRST
PLACE. POPS WILL INITIALIZE AT SLIGHT CHANCE LEVELS OVER THE BLUE
RIDGE BEFORE TAPERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING.
FROM THAT POINT ON GUIDANCE FAVORS INCREASED DEEP LAYER RIDGING
THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH ANY SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY BEING DIURNAL IN
NATURE. OVERALL THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON WHERE SLIGHT/CHANCE MTN AND FOOTHILL POPS ARE FAVORED.
SOUNDINGS ON TUESDAY GIVE MUCH SUPPORT TO THE RIDGE WITH MOST OF THE
AREA STRUGGLING TO BREAK ANY CAPPING THAT IS IN PLACE...THUS
TUESDAYS POPS FEATURE SLIGHT CHANCES OVER THE SW MTNS. WEAK FLOW
ALOFT WILL LIMIT SHEAR THUS EXPECTING ANY CONVECTION EITHER DAY TO
BE PULSE IN NATURE. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL
ALSO BE OF NOTE AS ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTH COMBINES WITH THE AFORE
MENTIONED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH TO YIELD INCREASINGLY HOT/HUMID
DAYS. HIGHS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH THE PIEDMONT APPROACHING/EXCEEDING THE CENTURY
MARK...POTENTIALLY BREAKING RECORDS. EXPECTING HEAT INDEX VALUES TO
APPROACH DANGEROUS LEVELS WITH HEAT ADVISORIES BEING A POSSIBILITY
EACH DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SAT...THE FLAT BUT STILL HOT UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES THRU MIDWEEK...WHILE FASTER FLOW CONTINUES
OVER THE RIDGE ACRS THE NERN CONUS. CONSENSUS OF THE LONG RANGE
MODELS IS THAT AS A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THAT FLOW WILL LAY OUT A
COLD FRONT ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY...WHICH STALLS TO OUR NORTH WED AS
THE WAVE PULLS AWAY. LATEST AVBL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
HOWEVER DOES SHOW HEIGHTS BEGINNING TO FALL OVER OUR AREA THU AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE PATTERN SUBSEQUENTLY BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED...AND THAT
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY ARRIVE THU NIGHT. SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
THEREAFTER BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS WE WILL SEE ACTIVE WX GOING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A PRONOUNCED TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND INTERACTS WITH THE EXISTING BOUNDARY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
FCST NEAR-RECORD MAXES WED AND THU...THOUGH THE FAVORED BLEND HAS
TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER FROM THE LAST CYCLE...SO A HWO MENTION STILL
IS UNWARRANTED. TEMPS WILL COOL A BIT FOR FRIDAY...BUT NOT RETURNING
TO NEAR NORMAL UNTIL SATURDAY.
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY OF THE PERIOD. GFS PROFILES HAD
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED POOR MIDLEVEL TEMPS WITHIN THE RIDGE WOULD KEEP
MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT CAPPED WED AND THU AFTNS...BUT THE LATEST RUN
SEEMS TO REFLECT A WEAKER RIDGE AND SUGGESTS FREE CONVECTION THERE.
WEAK SHEAR PROFILES AND MODEST INSTABILITY MEAN PULSE STORMS WILL
PROBABLY BE OF SOME CONCERN ON THESE DAYS. WEAK DOWNSLOPING WILL
LIKELY LIMIT THE COVERAGE HOWEVER. TO SUMMARIZE...ON WED-THU POPS
PEAK AT A HIGH CHC MTNS AND SCHC TO LOW CHC PIEDMONT. THE FRONT
WARRANTS POPS PERSISTING OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT WITH MOST OF THE CWFA
SOLIDLY IN CHC RANGE THRU EARLY SUNDAY ON ACCOUNT OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYNOPTIC FEATURES. SHEAR PARAMETERS WAX LATE IN THE
PERIOD BUT ARE NOT CURRENTLY INDICATIVE OF A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
THREAT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THRU THE PERIOD. BROAD ULVL RIDGING
WILL RETURN TO THE SE CONUS AND GOOD SUBS WILL KEEP VERTICAL CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT AT BAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH
SFC WINDS 5-9 KTS ALIGNING S OF WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...ONLY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE MORNING FG/BR AT KAVL AND
KHKY. SHUD BURN OFF QUICKLY AFT SUNRISE WITH GOOD SFC HEATING. DEEP
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP AFTERNOON CONVECTION LIMITED...MAINLY ISOL
ACROSS THE NC/GA/SC MTNS WITH NO TAF MENTION NEEDED AT KAVL.
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL MAINTAIN UPVALLEY AT KAVL AND SW/LY TO
W/LY ALL OTHER TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN DIURNAL INTO THE WORK
WEEK. AS A RESULT...THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA
WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN NC WHERE THE LEAST SUBSIDENCE WILL RESIDE.
MORNING RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG AND/OR STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE...
PARTICULARLY WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL THE PREVIOUS DAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
05-11Z 11-17Z 17-23Z 23-00Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEK...WITH YEARS IN WHICH THE
VALUES WERE LAST REACHED.
MONDAY JUNE 22...
AVL 94 1964
CLT 98 1956
GSP 99 2006
TUESDAY JUNE 23...
AVL 93 1988
CLT 98 1988
GSP 99 1988
WEDNESDAY JUNE 24...
AVL 94 1952
CLT 102 1930
GSP 100 1952
THURSDAY JUNE 25...
AVL 96 1952
CLT 102 1914
GSP 101 1952
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...LG/SBK/WJM
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...SBK
CLIMATE...DEO/WIMBERLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
437 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.DISCUSSION...
EXCESSIVE HEAT IS THE MAIN PROBLEM OF CONCERN IN THIS FORECAST.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND HIGH DEW POINTS WERE HOLDING TEMPERATURES
UP INTO THE 70S THIS MORNING WITH LOCATIONS IN AND AROUND
MEMPHIS STRUGGLING TO DROP TO BELOW 80 DEGREES. SKIES WERE
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH RAIN FREE CONDITIONS.
THE HRRR IS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...THUS CONTINUED TO KEEP POPS BELOW
MENTIONABLE LEVELS ALTHOUGH COULD BE A STRAY SHOWER /
THUNDERSTORM. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH HOT AIR INTO
THE REGION WITH HIGHS A DEGREE OR SO HOTTER THAN YESTERDAY. WENT
AHEAD AND ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON FOR
SOUTHWEST TN INCLUDING THE CITY OF MEMPHIS...EAST CENTRAL AR...AND
NORTHWEST MS. IT LOOKS TO BE A BORDERLINE SITUATION THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HEAT INDEX READINGS NEAR OR JUST SHY OF THE 105 DEGREE
MARK...BUT PREFERRED TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND THUS
ISSUED THE ADVISORY. BIGGEST QUESTIONS ARE IF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL HAVE MUCH AFFECT ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES...AND HOW MUCH SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL MIX OUT THIS
AFTERNOON FROM DRIER AIR ALOFT. YESTERDAY...SURFACE DEW POINTS DID
NOT MIX OUT VERY MUCH. FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...LEANED TOWARD THE
NAM / MET GUIDANCE WHICH DID A GOOD JOB FORECASTING THE HIGHS
YESTERDAY. THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE SANDWICHED TODAY BETWEEN A STRONG
HOT UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED OFF
THE ATLANTIC COAST. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND
TONIGHT IN A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE TWO HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS
ESPECIALLY FROM EAST CENTRAL AR INTO NORTH MS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WILL EXPAND EASTWARD AND INCLUDE THE
MIDSOUTH. THIS WILL LEAD TO VERY HOT CONDITIONS EXPANDING OVER THE
MIDSOUTH WITH LITTLE IF ANY RAIN. H5 HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST BY THE
GFS TO INCREASE TO NEAR 597 DM TUESDAY. CONTINUED THE HEAT
ADVISORY MONDAY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST TN...EAST CENTRAL AR
AND NORTHWEST MS. THE HEAT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED IN
LATER FORECASTS TO INCLUDE MORE OF THE MIDSOUTH FOR MONDAY. IN
ADDITION...AS THE HEAT EXPANDS TUESDAY A HEAT ADVISORY MAY
BECOMING NECESSARY FOR MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH.
WEDNESDAY...THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK..THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH THE REGION MOVING INTO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH A DECREASE IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS UPSTREAM AS WE EVOLVE INTO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...BUT THIS IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME. THE
ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER ON THE POSSIBLE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT OVER
THE WEEKEND.
JCL
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
S-SW BETWEEN 5-10 KT.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-LEE AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...NONE.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR
COAHOMA-DESOTO-PANOLA-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR
SHELBY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1115 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015
.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 905 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015/
DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS/00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PRESENT OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WHILE A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM /MCS/ HAS DEVELOPED
OVER SOUTHEAST IOWA/NORTHEAST MISSOURI. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAVE DIMINISHED WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND THE ONLY REMNANTS IS AN
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER OVER SOUTHERN HAYWOOD AND MADISON COUNTIES
IN TENNESSEE. LATEST HRRR AND 00Z WRF INDICATE ANY ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN MINIMAL AT BEST. WILL
MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST
TRENDS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST OVERALL IS IN GREAT SHAPE.
UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
CJC
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015/
UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015/
DISCUSSION...
HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL DOMINATE THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
CURRENTLY...DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POPPING UP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THUS FAR
TODAY. CURRENT HEAT INDEX READING IN MEMPHIS IS AROUND 101-102
DEGREES.
THE DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OFF AROUND 7 PM. CIRRUS
CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS WILL SPREAD OVER THE CWA THIS SHOULD KEEP
LOW TEMPERATURES UP COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. READINGS WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BE WARMER ON SUNDAY THUS HEAT INDICES COULD
REACH 105 DEGREES IN A FEW LOCATIONS. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BECOME
NECESSARY. THE HEAT WILL BUILD DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE WAVERING ON
HOW STRONG THE RIDGE WILL BE THUS ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION
COULD OCCUR ON ABOUT EACH DAY BUT NOT ENOUGH AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS
TO PUT ANY MENTION IN FORECAST YET. BY WEDNESDAY...BETTER
AGREEMENT OCCURS THUS HAVE ADDED IN MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
HEAT INDICES SHOULD HIT AROUND 105 DEGREES EACH DAY.
BY THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN TO NORMAL DURING THIS TIME PERIOD DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND CONVECTION.
KRM
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
S-SW BETWEEN 5-10 KT.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
351 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPED IN THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
THAT SAW THE BETTER RAINFALL ON SATURDAY. WEB CAMS AND OBS CURRENTLY
SHOW CONDITIONS ARE NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY...PROBABLY
DUE TO SLOWLY RETREATING CIRRUS SHIELD. WILL CONTINUE TO HANDLE WITH
SPS AND MONITOR CLOSELY.
OTHERWISE LOOKING FOR QUIET WEATHER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS REGION. SHOULD SEE ANY LOW STRATUS/FOG
MIX OUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH ENOUGH SUN AND 925 MB TEMPS
SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S INLAND...WITH UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
CLOSER TO THE LAKE.
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF POTENT SHORT WAVE...WITH
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME...TRIGGERING A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. WILL BRING IN CHANCE POPS
INTO THE WEST BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG LEADING
EDGE OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL JET.
.MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW WILL START TO BUCKLE AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PROPAGATES EAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. WHILE MUCH OF THE
MID LEVEL LIFT FROM THIS FEATURE WILL STAY NORTH OF THE
REGION...IT WILL CAUSE A TIGHTENING OF MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND
INCREASE WIND SPEEDS INTO THE 70-80KT RANGE BY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
IT WILL ALSO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY ON MONDAY WHICH WILL HELP TO INCREASE LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE REGION. A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
JET WILL NOSE UP INTO EASTERN MINNESOTA/WESTERN WISCONSIN AROUND
DAYBREAK MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE MORNING. THE FORCING ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LLJ SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA ON INTO
WISCONSIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. EXACTLY WHERE THIS
CONVECTION TRACKS IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT THE CENTRAL TO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WISCONSIN SEEMS TO BE A CONVERGENCE POINT IN
THE 21.00Z MODELS. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
AND FEEDING INTO THESE MORNING STORMS...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF SOME SEVERE WEATHER IN THE MORNING HOURS AS THIS
FEATURE MOVES THROUGH. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS WITH THIS FIRST WAVE OF STORMS IF THEY ENTER THE REGION.
THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE AFTERNOON AND THE SECOND ROUND OF
CONVECTION WHICH IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE 21.00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL ARE CONSISTENT WITH TAKING THE
SURFACE LOW NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE UP OF MICHIGAN WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT ANGLING DOWN TOWARD EASTERN IOWA BY 00Z
TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD FIRMLY PUT SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN INTO THE
WARM SECTOR THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. A WARM LAYER AROUND
700MB SHOULD KEEP SOUTHERN WISCONSIN CAPPED OFF THROUGH THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON AND ALLOW FOR THE ENVIRONMENT TO BECOME
HIGHLY UNSTABLE AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 80S AND DEW
POINTS RISE TO THE LOW 70S. SB/MLCAPE SHOULD APPROACH 4000 J/KG
BASED ON MODIFIED 21.00Z NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS WHICH ARE STILL
PRODUCING TOO HIGH OF SFC DEW POINTS OF AROUND 77-80F. THIS CAP
SHOULD SHIFT TO THE EAST BY MID AFTERNOON AND ALLOW FOR CONVECTION
TO INITIATE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 0-6KM SHEAR LOOKS VERY FAVORABLE
FOR ORGANIZING CONVECTION...BUT DOES LOOK FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
WITH LITTLE VEERING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST SURFACE WINDS
GOING UP TO WESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS. THE ONLY SOURCE FOR SOME
BETTER LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLIES WOULD BE IF THERE IS ANY LEFTOVER
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION THOUGH THE
INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY WIPE ANY OF THIS OUT. THE
0-6KM SHEAR VECTOR DOES ANGLE ABOUT 45 DEGREES OFF OF THE
BOUNDARY...SO SOME OF THE INITIAL CONVECTION COULD START OUT AS
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS BEFORE MERGING INTO A SQUALL LINE AS THE FRONT
SWINGS THROUGH. 0-1KM WIND SHEAR DOES LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT TORNADO DEVELOPMENT...BUT SEEMS TO BE ON THE DECLINE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE LLJ SHIFTS EAST. OVERALL...QUITE A
BIT OF FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR A SEVERE WEATHER
OUTBREAK...BUT ALSO STILL SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING STORM
EVOLUTION...HOW FAST CONVECTION INITIATES ONCE THE CAP SHIFTS
EAST...AND HOW BIG IS THE TORNADO THREAT.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT LINGERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...BUT STARTS
TO BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO ANY QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS THAT PROPAGATE THROUGH THE FLOW. THE MAIN SURFACE
WARM/STATIONARY FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE
REGION...BUT COULD LIFT NORTH WITH ANY SYSTEM THAT MOVES IN.
TRYING TO TIME DOWN ANY OF THESE SYSTEM IS TOUGH AT THIS
POINT...THOUGH THE 21.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM DO TRY AND DEVELOP SOME
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY SEASONAL WITH THE REGION STAYING MAINLY
ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
SEEING PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG AND IFR CIGS IN FAR SOUTH
CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST LOCATIONS THAT HAVE ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM SATURDAY RAINS. LOWER CLOUD COVER BEING REVEALED ON SATELLITE
FOG PRODUCT BELOW SLOWLY DEPARTING CIRRUS SHIELD SHOWS HOW PATCHY IT
CURRENTLY IS. SREF VSBY PROBABILITY FORECASTS HANDLING THE CURRENT
SITUATION BETTER THAN THE MORE WIDESPREAD HRRR SO NOT EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE EVERYWHERE.WILL MONITOR CLOSELY...BUT
EXPECT ONLY LOCAL IFR VSBYS/CIGS THAT WILL MIX OUT BY MID MORNING.
THEN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. WARM AIR
ADVECTION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO WESTERN
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z MONDAY...WARRANTING NO MORE THAN A
PROB30 AT KMSN AND NOTHING EAST UNTIL AFTER 12Z.
&&
.MARINE...
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO LINGER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH DEW
POINTS JUST HIGH ENOUGH OVER THE LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPERATURES.
NOT EXPECTING ANY DENSE FOG AT THIS TIME.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1124 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT FOLLOWS
TONIGHT WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH OUR
REGION LATE TUESDAY. A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE REMNANTS OF BILL PULLING AWAY FROM OUR REGION AND
TRACKING UP TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, WE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERED
POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING, AS
MOST LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE DRY CONDITIONS AND GRADUAL CLEARING
SKIES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. FOR THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A
DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND COLD
FRONT FROM THE WEST, WE INTRODUCE SOME CHANCE POPS, ESPECIALLY FOR
OUR NORTHWEST ZONES, WITH BOTH THE HRRR AND RAP SUPPORTING THIS
REGION FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOURLY TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED USING THE LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE.
OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO BE AROUND 90, AND DEW POINTS WILL
BE CLOSE TO 70 WHICH WILL MAKE IT FEEL A BIT STICKY. THE ONLY
SAVING GRACE WILL BE THAT THE WIND WILL BECOME MORE WLY BEHIND THE
CFP AND IT WILL BE A BIT BREEZY.
THE SUMMER SOLSTICE OCCURS AT 1238 PM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AFTER ANY EVE SHWRS/TSTMS AS MENTIONED ABOVE, WK HIGH
PRES WILL BUILD IN FOR SUN NIGHT AND PRECIP WILL END AND HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL DROP AS THE WIND CONTINUES FROM THE W AND EVEN PSBLY NW
BRINGS IN DRIER AIR.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRAFT:
**HOT TUESDAY, POSSIBLY NEAR RECORD**
500 MB: WARM HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES WITH A
PREDOMINANTLY WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
IN THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES TRENDING TO A TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES NEXT WEEKEND.
CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES TUESDAY WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL,
AND THEN PROBABLY WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. DAYTIME MAX`S FRIDAY MIGHT BE 10 DEGREES OR MORE BELOW
NORMAL-A COOLISH DAY!
FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, A 50 50 BLEND 12Z/21 GFS/NAM
MOS GUIDANCE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT, 12Z/21 MEX MOS WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THEN THE 1521Z/21 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF
MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT-SKY-WIND FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.
THE DAILIES...
MONDAY...FOR THE MOST PART, MONDAY LOOKS VERY NICE. PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. PWAT ONLY 1 INCH! SFC DEWPOINTS ALMOST 10F LOWER THAN
THE VALUES OF SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WEST WIND GUSTS GENERALLY UNDER 15
MPH. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.
MONDAY NIGHT...WAA MID AND HIGH CLOUD ARRIVES LATE. SMALL CHANCE
AND NOT YET MENTIONED, OF A SHOWER GRAZING THE POCONOS AT DAWN
TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE ON SCENARIO: ABOVE AVERAGE.
TUESDAY...HOT AND HUMID! A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE
LATTER HALF OF THE DAY. AS SUCH, SHOULD SEE CONVECTIVE CHANCES
AHEAD OF AND WITH THE FRONT. SREF PWAT 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. MLCAPE OVER 2000J BY LATE IN THE DAY. 0-6KM
BULK QUITE STRONG WITH 50 KT AT 500MB NEAR AND N I-78 AND TT LOWER
50S WITH SWI -4. LANCE POINTED OUT THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER (EML)
IN THE SOUNDING AND NICELY SEEN IN BOTH THE EC AND GFS PLAN VIEW
BREAKING FREE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY AND APPEARING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE 18Z TUESDAY. THE EML OFFERS
ADDITIONAL STRENGTH POTENTIAL IF CONVECTION ERUPTS. WE`RE ALSO
NOTING HIGH FORECAST SHERB VALUES FOR OUR AREA TUESDAY (VALUES
OVER 1). POPS LOOKED A LITTLE LOW BUT ITS POSSIBLE THAT THERE
MIGHT NOT BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO INITIATE CONVECTION.
CONFIDENCE ON HEAT INCLUDING 95-96F AT PHL IS ABOVE AVG.
CONFIDENCE ON CONVECTION: AVERAGE WITH MODELED PARAMETERS FOR SVR
IMPRESSIVE.
WEDNESDAY...PROBABLY DRY AND NICE AGAIN. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR
A BIT ABOVE.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COMPLEX AND NOT GIVEN TO ADDING MUCH
INFORMATION EXCEPT TO SAY THERE IS A CHANCE OF PERIODIC
CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY NEXT SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE OVERALL IS
AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT FROM MVFR CIGS TO VFR CIGS IS EXPECTED
THROUGH LATE MORNING FOR THE TAF SITES. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS IN
THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WILL GUST AT TIMES TO BETWEEN 20 TO 25
KNOTS, BEFORE SUBSIDING THIS EVENING.
LATER IN THE DAY, THERE COULD BE SCATTERED SHWRS OR EVEN A TSTM
AS THE CDFNT ASSOCD WITH THE LOW AND AN UPR LVL DISTURBANCE PASSES
BY. HOWEVER, AREAL COVERAGE IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE SMALL, SO
NOT INCLUDING IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHRA/TSRA, VFR CONDS SHUD PREVAIL FOR THE BALANCE
OF THE DAY AFTER THIS MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR SCT AOA 5000 FT. NW GUST 20 POSSIBLY 25 KT EARLY
THEN DIMINISHES LATE DAY. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR LIGHT WIND. VFR CIGS DEVELOPING LATE AT NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.
TUESDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT LOWERING TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
WITH SHOWERS AND STRONG GUSTY TSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY OR MORE
LIKELY EVENING. GRADIENT SW WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT SHIFT NW AT NIGHT
BUT GUSTS UNDER 20 KT. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE
WEDNESDAY...VFR DAYTIME WITH POSSIBLE CIGS ARRIVING AT NIGHT. NW
GUSTS UNDER 15 KT BECOMING LIGHT NE AT NIGHT. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE
THURSDAY...VFR CIGS DURING THE DAY WITH CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
TSTM. MVFR/IFR CONDS IN STRATUS-FOG POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.
&&
.MARINE...
THE SCA WILL BE CONTINUED THRU 22/00Z. AFTER THAT
CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER SO IT WAS NOT EXTENDED ATTM. IF THERE
NEEDS TO BE AN EXTENSION, IT WUD LIKELY BE FOR SEAS AS WIND SHUD BE
BELOW CRITERIA. OTHERWISE, ONCE WE GET BEYOND THIS SCA, NO
ADDITIONAL MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...SCA POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING FOR THE ATLC WATERS THEN NW
WINDS SUBSIDE AFTERNOON/EVENING. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.
TUESDAY...SCA SW WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG
THE NEARSHORE WATERS. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.
WEDNESDAY AND MOST OF THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW
SCA CRITERIA. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
11 AM ASSESSMENT INCLUDING INFORMATION GATHERED FROM OUR 1015 AM
CONFERENCE CALL WITH 4 BEACH PATROLS.
THE FORMATION RISK WAS PROBABLY HIGHEST THIS MRNG. NOW THAT WINDS
ARE WLY, WE`RE NO LONGER BUILDING THE WATER LEVEL IN THE SURF
ZONE. ON THE OTHER HAND AS THE TIDE MOVES INTO THE LOWER HALF OF
THE TIDE CYCLE AFTER 2 PM...WHATEVER RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS EXISTS, IT TENDS TO ELEVATE DUE TO SAND BAR
EXPOSURE AND RESIDUAL WATER BUILD UP. LONG PERIOD SWELLS ARE AT A
MINIMUM TODAY SO THE CONTRIBUTUION OF WATER BUILDUP BEHIND THE
BARS SHOULD BE PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH A GRADUALLY LOWERING
SHORT PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL.
WE HAD A COUPLE OF REPORTS FROM NORTH WILDWOOD AND ISLAND BEACH
STATE PARK ABOUT CONCERN THAT THE RIP CURRENT FORMATION LATE THIS
MORNING WAS BORDERING HIGH RISK.
FOR NOW..DUE TO THE EXPECTED WESTERLY WIND IMPACT, WE`LL MAINTAIN
A MODERATE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG
THE NJ COAST.
MEDIA ARE RECOMMENDED TO ADVISE CAUTION FOR SWIMMERS GOING INTO
THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND PLEASE SWIM IN THE PRESENCE OF
LIFEGUARDS. THERE IS MORE THAN THE USUAL RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
VULNERABLE TO THE MAX TEMP WITHIN 2F OF EQUALING THE RECORD MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY JUNE 23
KACY 98-1988
KILG 100-1894
KPHL 97-1888
KABE 95-1965
KTTN 97-1894
KRDG 96-1908
KMPO 90-1908
KGED 100-1988
RAINFALL: THE PAST WEEK FROM THE 14TH THROUGH 20TH "NOT INCLUDING
TODAYS SO FAR". A GRAPHIC AND LINK WITH MORE DETAIL WILL POST ON
OUR SOCIAL MEDIA FB PAGE AND WILL BE TWEETED.
KMPO 2.07 7 CONSEC DAYS OF SOME RAIN
KRDG 1.69 7 CONSEC DAYS OF SOME RAIN
KABE 1.91 6 OF 7 DAYS IT RAINED
KTTN 0.84 6 OF 7 DAYS IT RAINED
KPHL 1.49 7 CONSEC DAYS OF RAIN
KILG 2.70 7 CONSEC DAYS OF RAIN
KACY 1.18 6 OF 7 DAYS IT RAINED
KGED 1.06 6 OF 7 DAYS IT RAINED
WHEN WE ADD TODAYS RAINFALL THROUGH 9 AM... IT WILL HAVE RAINED 8
CONSEC DAYS AT KMPO/KRDG/KPHL AND KILG AND 7 OF 8 ELSEWHERE.
KILG: THE 9.18 INCHES FOR THE MONTH AS OF 845 AM THIS MORNING IS
STILL 4TH WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD.
2013 13.66
2003 9.90
2006 9.40
2015 9.18
POR FOR THIS STATION IN JUNE IS BACK TO 1896. INTERESTINGLY, IN
THE NEARLY 120 YEAR PERIOD OF RECORD, THE TOP 4 MONTHLY JUNE
RAINFALL TOTALS ALL OCCURRED IN THE LAST 13 YEARS.
TEMPS THROUGH THE 20TH ARE AVERAGING 1.3 TO 2.4 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE CWA.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
RTPPHI IS MISSING A FAIR AMOUNT OF DATA THIS MORNING DUE TO THE
FAA MAINTENANCE PERIOD FROM 315Z-815Z OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...KLINE/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/KLINE/NIERENBERG
MARINE...DRAG/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG 1123
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1033 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT FOLLOWS
TONIGHT WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH OUR
REGION LATE TUESDAY. A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE REMNANTS OF BILL PULLING AWAY FROM OUR REGION AND
TRACKING UP TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, WE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERED
POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING, AS
MOST LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE DRY CONDITIONS AND GRADUAL CLEARING
SKIES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. FOR THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A
DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND COLD
FRONT FROM THE WEST, WE INTRODUCE SOME CHANCE POPS, ESPECIALLY FOR
OUR NORTHWEST ZONES, WITH BOTH THE HRRR AND RAP SUPPORTING THIS
REGION FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOURLY TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED USING THE LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE.
OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO BE AROUND 90, AND DEW POINTS WILL
BE CLOSE TO 70 WHICH WILL MAKE IT FEEL A BIT STICKY. THE ONLY
SAVING GRACE WILL BE THAT THE WIND WILL BECOME MORE WLY BEHIND THE
CFP AND IT WILL BE A BIT BREEZY.
THE SUMMER SOLSTICE OCCURS AT 1238 PM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AFTER ANY EVE SHWRS/TSTMS AS MENTIONED ABOVE, WK HIGH
PRES WILL BUILD IN FOR SUN NIGHT AND PRECIP WILL END AND HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL DROP AS THE WIND CONTINUES FROM THE W AND EVEN PSBLY NW
BRINGS IN DRIER AIR.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM OVERNIGHT TO FOCUS ON CURRENT
EVENT. PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION:
**RATHER HOT TUESDAY, POSSIBLY NEAR RECORD**
500 MB: WARM HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES WITH A
PREDOMINANTLY ZONAL FLOW IN THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES TRENDING TO
A TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST NEXT WEEKEND.
JUNE THROUGH THE FIRST 19 DAYS HAS AVERAGED 1 TO 2.5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL AVERAGE 5 TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, NEAR 5 ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THEN
PROBABLY NEAR NORMAL NEXT THURSDAY-FRIDAY-SATURDAY.
FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, A 50 50 BLEND 12Z/20 GFS/NAM
MOS GUIDANCE SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT, 12Z/20 MEX MOS TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN THE 1521Z/20 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN
TEMP, 12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT-SKY-WIND FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
NEXT SUNDAY.
THE DAILIES...
MONDAY...FOR THE MOST PART, MONDAY LOOKS VERY NICE. PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. PWAT ONLY 1 INCH! SFC DEWPOINTS ALMOST 10F LOWER THAN
THE VALUES OF SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WEST WIND GUSTS GENERALLY UNDER 15
MPH. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.
MONDAY NIGHT...WAA MID AND HIGH CLOUD ARRIVES LATE. SMALL CHANCE
AND NOT YET MENTIONED, OF A SHOWER GRAZING THE POCONOS AT DAWN
TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE ON SCENARIO: ABOVE AVERAGE.
TUESDAY...HOT AND HUMID! A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE
LATTER HALF OF THE DAY. AS SUCH, SHOULD SEE CONVECTIVE CHANCES
AHEAD OF AND WITH THE FRONT. SREF PWAT 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. MLCAPE OVER 2000J BY LATE IN THE DAY. 0-6KM
BULK QUITE STRONG WITH 50 KT AT 500MB NEAR AND N I-78 AND TT LOWER
50S WITH SWI -4. LANCE POINTED OUT THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER (EML)
IN THE SOUNDING AND NICELY SEEN IN BOTH THE EC AND GFS PLAN VIEW
BREAKING FREE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY AND APPEARING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE 18Z TUESDAY. THE EML OFFERS
ADDITIONAL STRENGTH POTENTIAL IF CONVECTION ERUPTS. WE`RE ALSO
NOTING HIGH FORECAST SHERB VALUES FOR OUR AREA TUESDAY (VALUES
OVER 1). POPS LOOKED A LITTLE LOW BUT ITS POSSIBLE THAT THERE
MIGHT NOT BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO INITIATE CONVECTION.
CONFIDENCE ON HEAT INCLUDING 95-96F AT PHL IS ABOVE AVG.
CONFIDENCE ON CONVECTION: AVERAGE WITH MODELED PARAMETERS FOR SVR
IMPRESSIVE.
WEDNESDAY...PROBABLY DRY AND NICE AGAIN. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR
A BIT ABOVE.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COMPLEX AND NOT GIVEN TO ADDING MUCH
INFORMATION EXCEPT TO SAY THERE IS A CHANCE OF PERIODIC
CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY NEXT SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE OVERALL IS
AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT FROM MVFR CIGS TO VFR CIGS IS EXPECTED
THROUGH LATE MORNING FOR THE TAF SITES. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS IN
THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WILL GUST AT TIMES TO BETWEEN 20 TO 25
KNOTS, BEFORE SUBSIDING THIS EVENING.
LATER IN THE DAY, THERE COULD BE SCATTERED SHWRS OR EVEN A TSTM
AS THE CDFNT ASSOCD WITH THE LOW AND AN UPR LVL DISTURBANCE PASSES
BY. HOWEVER, AREAL COVERAGE IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE SMALL, SO
NOT INCLUDING IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHRA/TSRA, VFR CONDS SHUD PREVAIL FOR THE BALANCE
OF THE DAY AFTER THIS MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR SCT AOA 5000 FT. NW GUST 20 POSSIBLY 25 KT EARLY
THEN DIMINISHES LATE DAY. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR LIGHT WIND. VFR CIGS DEVELOPING LATE AT NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.
TUESDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT LOWERING TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
WITH SHOWERS AND STRONG GUSTY TSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY OR MORE
LIKELY EVENING. GRADIENT SW WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT SHIFT NW AT NIGHT
BUT GUSTS UNDER 20 KT. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE
WEDNESDAY...VFR DAYTIME WITH POSSIBLE CIGS ARRIVING AT NIGHT. NW
GUSTS UNDER 15 KT BECOMING LIGHT NE AT NIGHT. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE
THURSDAY...VFR CIGS DURING THE DAY WITH CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
TSTM. MVFR/IFR CONDS IN STRATUS-FOG POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.
&&
.MARINE...
THE SCA WILL BE CONTINUED THRU 22/00Z. AFTER THAT
CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER SO IT WAS NOT EXTENDED ATTM. IF THERE
NEEDS TO BE AN EXTENSION, IT WUD LIKELY BE FOR SEAS AS WIND SHUD BE
BELOW CRITERIA. OTHERWISE, ONCE WE GET BEYOND THIS SCA, NO
ADDITIONAL MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...SCA POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING FOR THE ATLC WATERS THEN NW
WINDS SUBSIDE AFTERNOON/EVENING. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.
TUESDAY...SCA SW WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG
THE NEARSHORE WATERS. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.
WEDNESDAY AND MOST OF THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW
SCA CRITERIA. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
WITH A GUSTY WIND AND ELEVATED SEAS, GUID INDICATES
THAT RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE MODERATE TODAY. HOWEVER, ITS POSSIBLE
THAT THE RISK MAY BE HIGHEST IN THE MRNG, BECAUSE AS THE WIND
BECOMES MORE WLY AND NWLY AND THE WAVES ARE PUSHED AWAY FROM THE
SHORE, THE RISK CUD LOWER AS THE SEAS DO. CONDS WILL BE FURTHER
ASSESSED LATER TODAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
VULNERABLE TO THE MAX TEMP WITHIN 2F OF EQUALING THE RECORD MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY JUNE 23
KACY 98-1988
KILG 100-1894
KPHL 97-1888
KABE 95-1965
KTTN 97-1894
KRDG 96-1908
KMPO 90-1908
KGED 100-1988
RAINFALL: THE PAST WEEK FROM THE 14TH THROUGH 20TH "NOT INCLUDING
TODAYS SO FAR". A GRAPHIC AND LINK WITH MORE DETAIL WILL POST ON
OUR SOCIAL MEDIA FB PAGE AND WILL BE TWEETED.
KMPO 2.07 7 CONSEC DAYS OF SOME RAIN
KRDG 1.69 7 CONSEC DAYS OF SOME RAIN
KABE 1.91 6 OF 7 DAYS IT RAINED
KTTN 0.84 6 OF 7 DAYS IT RAINED
KPHL 1.49 7 CONSEC DAYS OF RAIN
KILG 2.70 7 CONSEC DAYS OF RAIN
KACY 1.18 6 OF 7 DAYS IT RAINED
KGED 1.06 6 OF 7 DAYS IT RAINED
WHEN WE ADD TODAYS RAINFALL THROUGH 9 AM... IT WILL HAVE RAINED 8
CONSEC DAYS AT KMPO/KRDG/KPHL AND KILG AND 7 OF 8 ELSEWHERE.
KILG: THE 9.18 INCHES FOR THE MONTH AS OF 845 AM THIS MORNING IS
STILL 4TH WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD.
2013 13.66
2003 9.90
2006 9.40
2015 9.18
POR FOR THIS STATION IN JUNE IS BACK TO 1896. INTERESTINGLY, IN
THE NEARLY 120 YEAR PERIOD OF RECORD, THE TOP 4 MONTHLY JUNE
RAINFALL TOTALS ALL OCCURRED IN THE LAST 13 YEARS.
TEMPS THROUGH THE 20TH ARE AVERAGING 1.3 TO 2.4 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE CWA.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
RTPPHI IS MISSING A FAIR AMOUNT OF DATA THIS MORNING DUE TO THE
FAA MAINTENANCE PERIOD FROM 315Z-815Z OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...KLINE/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/KLINE/NIERENBERG
MARINE...DRAG/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...DRAG
EQUIPMENT...DRAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
656 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
DENSE FOG HAS FORMED IN THE AREAS THAT THE MOST RAIN YESTERDAY
ALONG WITH WHERE THE ANVIL FROM THE CONVECTION HAD MOVED OUT OF
THE AREA. AS A RESULT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9AM
TODAY. OTHERWISE DECAYING CONVECTION TO THE WEST MAY MAKE IT INTO
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN. THE HRRR HAS
CONSISTENTLY FORECAST THIS. MY CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS OCCURRING
SO DECIDED TO LEAVE IT OUT. OTHERWISE NO UPDATES TO THE FORECAST
WERE MADE.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
A MCS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY EVENING HAD STALLED
OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. MOST OF THE RAIN WAS OVER ACROSS THE
AREA. 24 MPE SUGGESTS THAT THERE WERE 2 AREAS OF 1 TO 2 INCH
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. I80 WAS THE SEPARATION BETWEEN
THESE TWO AREAS. DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE THE NW ZONES
AS LIGHT WIND AN AMPLE MOISTURE WAS LEADING TO FOG DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST ARE THE CHANCES
FOR POPS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. OVERALL CHANCES APPEAR TO BE
LOW FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON WHATEVER BOUNDARY DECIDES TO
COALESCE AND MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT.
TODAY WILL BE A NICE DAY THAT WILL LEAD TO DRYING OUT ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM.
THE BOUNDARY...OR LACK THERE OF...IS THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM. A
PURELY MESOSCALE ISSUE PREDICTED BY SYNOPTIC MODELS USUALLY IS
A DIFFICULT FORECAST. LOOKING AT MSAS THERE APPEARS TO BE DRIER
AIR SINKING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH
OF US WILL LIKELY DIE OUT THIS MORNING LEAVING OFBS. THROUGH
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...THIS AREA SHOULD BE WHERE THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD EXIST. A LOW PRESSURE....MOVING OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA WILL
FORCE THIS BOUNDARY NORTH OVERNIGHT. WE WILL RESIDE WELL INTO THE
WARM SECTOR. HIRES MESO MODELS...SUGGEST LITTLE TO NO STORM
COVERAGE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WENT WITH SCATTERED POPS...BUT DO
BELIEVE IT MAY BE VERY ISOLATED OR NON-EXISTENT...JUST DO NOT HAVE
THE CONFIDENCE TO GO THAT WAY YET.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
SEASONABLY WARM WITH POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT RAINS MID WEEK AND THEN
TURNING COOLER.
LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR OR AVERAGE OVERALL
EXCEPT POOR WED/THU WITH WAVE AND TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF HEAVY
RAINS DUE TO POOR PHYSICS ISSUES OF ALL SOLUTIONS. CONCEPTUAL TRENDS
SUGGEST HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WOULD TEND TO BE FURTHER SOUTH THAN
MOST SOLUTIONS.
OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION GOOD WITH AGAIN DISPLACED
SOUTHWARD CONVECTION FROM SOLUTIONS NOTED THAT SUPPORTS THIS AS AN
ONGOING CONCERN FOR MID WEEK DUE TO BL MOISTURE IMBALANCES AS IS
COMMON. RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY SUPPORTS A 70/30 MIX OF GFS TO HI-RES
ECMWF ON FORCING AND THEN TRY AND APPLY ECMWF RAIN PACKAGE.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...VERY WARM...BREEZY AND HUMID WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY 85 TO 90 SUGGESTED WITH A CONCERN NORTH SECTIONS MAY BE
COOLER FROM MCS NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20 FOR LATER SHIFTS TO
MONITOR SINCE TENDENCY IS FOR GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS TO DISPLACE RAINS
TOO FAR NORTH. POPS IN NORTH MAY BE A BIT TOO LOW WITH POPS SOUTH OF
I-80 MAY BE TOO HIGH BASED ON JET AXIS AND 850 PARAMETERS.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO RESULT IN A FAIR
DAY AND MOSTLY DRY TO DRY AND LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO LOWER DEWPOINTS FURTHER IN NORTH
SECTIONS. TUESDAY NIGHT...REGION FAVORED TO EXPERIENCE LATE AN MCS
WITH HEAVIEST RAINS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34. POPS MAY NEED
RAISING WHEN TIMING ISSUES ARE BETTER RESOLVED WITH 1+ INCH AMOUNTS
SUGGESTED AND LOW TO MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE.
WEDNESDAY...LOTS OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WITH HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION TO BE ALONG AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-80. FORCING AND
MOISTURE PROFILES FAVOR WIDESPREAD .5 TO 1.5+ AMOUNTS WITH LOCALLY 2
TO 3 INCHES THAT COMBINED WITH TUESDAY NIGHT EVENT COULD RESULT IN
RENEWED HYDRO ISSUES. SEVERE RISK APPEARS WILL BE ALONG AND MAYBE
SOUTH OF IA/MO BORDER. HIGH TEMPERATURES BASED ON THIS PATTERN MAY
NEED LOWERING BY LATER SHIFTS BY UP TO 5 DEGREES. LOWS ALSO WITH
EVAPORATIVE COOLING MAY NEED LOWERING.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BECOMING COOLER AND LESS HUMID AND
MOSTLY DRY TO DRY AS NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS. HIGHS MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S AND MINS UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH MODERATE
HUMIDITY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
AT THE TAF SITES. WITH THE SUN RISING...EXPECT THESE ISSUES TO GO
AWAY. AFTER THIS SITES SHOULD VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTH NEAR MID EVENING.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER TONIGHT...HOWEVER LOW
CONFIDENCE PRECLUDES ANY MENTION IN THE TAF.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BENTON-
BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-IOWA-JACKSON-
JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LINN-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.
IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CARROLL-JO
DAVIESS-STEPHENSON.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...GIBBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
815 AM MDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 810 AM MDT SUN JUN 21 2015
JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE. THIS WAS DONE MAINLY TO ADD
THUNDERSTORMS TO THIS MORNING FOR THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE
AREA DUE TO THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. THIS COMPLEX HAS THROWN OUT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND HAS
CAUSED ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP. THE RUC HAS CAUGHT THIS
GENERAL SCENARIO WELL WHICH KEEPS NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
SO IN ADDITION TO THE PRECIPITATION INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
CHANGED THE WIND FIELD. DID LOWER THE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER AFTER THIS COMPLEX GOES
PASSED...RUC DOES WANT TO SHIFT THE WINDS BACK TO A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION AND STILL BRING IN HOT TEMPERATURES. NOT SURE ABOUT THAT
AND WILL WAIT/WATCH TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS THIS MORNING BEFORE MAKING
FURTHER IF ANY ADJUSTMENTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT SUN JUN 21 2015
TODAY-TONIGHT...FORECAST CONCERN IS THE HEAT. STATIONARY FRONT
CURRENTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH MUCH
OF THE AREA UNDER EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS. NAM/RUC BOUNDARY LAYER RH
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ALONG/NORTH OF THE FRONT RESULTING IN AREAS
OF FOG THROUGH MID MORNING. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS FRONT SLOWLY
LIFTS NORTH WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS BEHIND IT. A GENERALLY
SUNNY SKY EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S TO
AROUND 100 ALONG/NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE WITH UPPER 90S TO AROUND
103 SOUTH. LUCKILY NOT EXPECTING FULL MIXING AT 850MB WHICH BASED ON
THE PAST 5 DAYS WOULD SUPPORT READINGS ABOUT 4F HIGHER AND PRODUCE
SOME NEAR RECORD HIGHS. FOR TONIGHT WARM FRONT CONTINUES NORTH WITH
BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTH WINDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE VEERING TO THE
SOUTHWEST LATE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH MID 60S TO MID 70S
EAST OF THE STATE LINE.
HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100 DEGREES IN THE HILL CITY AND
GOVE AREAS...BELOW 105 THRESHOLD FOR HEAT ADVISORY.
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...BROAD 594-596DM HIGH PRESSURE CENTER EXTENDS
FROM SOUTHERN KANSAS TO ARIZONA DURING THE DAY SLOWLY LIFTING
NORTHWARD DURING THE NIGHT. NAM/GFS/SREF/ECMWF ALL SHOWING AN AREA
OF INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA
DURING THE NIGHT...EXITING THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE AREA AROUND
12Z TUESDAY MORNING. NOSE OF MODEST LOW LEVEL JET FEEDING INTO THIS
FEATURE AND ELEVATED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH DURING THE DAY BRINGING SOME NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 25 MPH
OR SO IN THE MORNING WITH A SLOW DECREASE AND VEER TO THE NORTHEAST
THEN EAST-NORTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S FROM
FLAGLER TO GOODLAND TO MCCOOK AND POINTS WEST WITH MID 90S TO
AROUND 102 ELSEWHERE...HOTTEST FROM HILL CITY TO TRIBUNE WHERE
HEAT BUILDS BEFORE THE FRONTS ARRIVAL. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S...UPPER 60S CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM HILL
CITY TO GOVE TO TRIBUNE.
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...MAY HAVE A FEW LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE MORNING FROM TRENTON/MCCOOK EAST THROUGH NORTON BEFORE EXITING
THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST BEFORE 18Z. FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG ITS LEADING EDGE WHERE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...BETTER MOISTURE AND LIMITED CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION EXIST. DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS ANY
PRECIP THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD LIFT NORTH AND LIKELY OUT OF THE
AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER WITH UPPER
90S TO AROUND 100 FOR PARTS OF GOVE...GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES.
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S WEST TO AROUND 70 EAST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT SUN JUN 21 2015
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL JET FLOW WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE TRI
STATE AREA WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PARKED OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CONUS. WITH A
LACK OF JET LEVEL FORCING...THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACTUALLY WILL
RETROGRADE TO THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE UPPER FLOW
PATTERN FRIDAY WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE CONUS.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS WEAK FORCING AT THE UPPER LEVELS...WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE TRI
STATE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOME PARTS OF
THE AREA. THE CAP VIA GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS DOES NOT LOOK AS
IMPRESSIVE COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...SO MID LEVEL FORCING MAY HELP
INITIATE STORMS DESPITE LACK OF STRONG JET PRESENCE. GFS/ECMWF
MODELS HAVE A SURFACE BOUNDARY POSITIONED AROUND THE TRI STATE AREA
FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S...SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEFINITELY BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 WHERE THE BOUNDARY SETS UP. THE
LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON WHERE
EXACTLY THE SURFACE AND 850 MB BOUNDARY IS POSITIONED.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AS MOISTURE IS STREAMED INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST IN
COMBINATION WITH A WEAK SURFACE COOL FRONT THAT PUSHES INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AFFECTED VERY LITTLE WITH
DROPS OF ABOUT 5 DEGREES FROM THE LOWER 90S TO THE MID 80S.
DISAGREEMENT IN MODEL PRECIPITATION OCCURS ON SATURDAY...WITH MOST
MODELS STAYING DRY WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE GFS MODEL IS
THE ONLY FORECAST THAT IS AGGRESSIVELY BRINGING WIDESPREAD HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE GFS
SOLUTION SEEMED TO HEAVILY AFFECT CONSENSUS FORECASTS DESPITE OTHER
FORECASTS REMAINING DRY. LOWERED POPS A BIT...ESPECIALLY FOR
SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA TO REMAIN WITHIN COLLABORATIVE
THRESHOLDS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT SUN JUN 21 2015
KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. AN EAST WIND UNDER 10KTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z BEFORE VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND APPROACHING
12KTS BY 20Z. FROM 21Z-00Z WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST 12-15KTS WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS. FOR THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY OVERNIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 15-20KT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS
A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER 09Z WINDS SLOWLY VEER TO
THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 13KTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
KMCK...MVFR CIGS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 17Z OR SO
BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. AN EAST WIND NEAR 10KTS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE
THROUGH 18Z BEFORE SLOWLY VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST AT SIMILAR
SPEEDS. SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 12-15KTS WITH SOME GUSTS EXPECTED FROM
03Z-06Z THEN SLOWLY VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AND FALL BELOW 12KTS
AFTER 09Z.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1111 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1111 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
UPDATE MAINLY TO REMOVE MORNING FOG FROM THE FORECAST PACKAGE.
GRIDS...AND THE REST OF THE FORECAST WERE IN GOOD SHAPE. SEEING
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING OUT THERE THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE DEBRIS
FROM UPSTREAM MCS IS PASSING ACROSS THE AREA BUT THUS FAR AND FOR
A LARGE PART THIS HAS BEEN DISSIPATING...ALLOWING OUR AIR MASS TO
BEGIN THE PROCESS OF DESTABILIZATION. BEST SHEAR AND SFC BASED
INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. SEVERAL OF
OUR HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE GENERATING SIMILAR SOLUTIONS...
DEVELOPING A LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64
BY 19-21Z BEFORE BRINGING THE LINE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO
SHOW A WEAK CAP IN PLACE UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT REALLY
SEEING THIS FEATURE IN THE MORNINGS 12Z SOUNDINGS. THIS
CONVECTION APPEARS TO INITIATE ALONG A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
THAT MAY BE SETTLING OVER OUR AREA THIS MORNING...LIKELY LEFT OVER
FROM LAST NIGHTS UPSTREAM MCS ACTIVITY. IN GENERAL CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CONVECTION PROBABLY
INITIATING BY OR AFTER 3 PM...BUT BEFORE 5 PM. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 647 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DISSIPATED BEFORE IT WAS ABLE TO MOVE INTO
OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES SO WILL REMOVE ANY MENTION OF RAIN UNTIL
LATER THIS MORNING. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
TODAY/S FORECAST IS A BIT MORE COMPLICATED THAN I WOULD LIKE DUE
TO UPSTREAM MCS AND THE EFFECT IT/S DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL HAVE ON
POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY ACROSS OUR AREA.
BASED ON RAW EXTRAPOLATION...THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY OVER INDIANA WILL BE ENTERING OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES BY
AROUND DAWN. I EXPECT THIS LINE TO WEAKEN BUT A SMALL POP WILL BE
INCLUDED UP NORTH EARLY ON TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY.
CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
MORNING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT DESTABILIZATION
EARLY ON IN THE DAY DRAWING INTO QUESTION THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS SHOWN TO TAKE PLACE SO QUICKLY IN THE
21/00Z NAM OVER INDIANA AND OHIO. RECENT HRRR AND 21/00Z HIRES NMM
SEEM MORE REASONABLE IN HOLDING OFF ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. IT IS AT THIS TIME THAT
AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY...AND THEY COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG AS THEY HAVE A RICH
FUEL SOURCE OF LOW 70 DEGREE SURFACE DEW POINTS TO TAP INTO. SPC
CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK
AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN OUR LOCAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST
AND WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING. LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES MAY THEN BE
THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THESE SHOULD REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE ANOTHER CONCERN DURING THE SHORT TERM.
CLOUD COVER EARLY IN THE DAY TODAY SHOULD SLOW OUR RISE A
BIT...BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPS TO REACH AROUND 90 BY AFTERNOON AND
THEN AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH DEW POINTS PROGGED TO RISE INTO
THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START OUT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS RIDGE WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND GET DIRECTED TOWARD THE EAST...AS TRAVERSING
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY PROVIDES GLANCING BLOWS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TOWARDS THE MIDDLE AND ESPECIALLY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK...THE RIDGE WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING FOR MORE TROUGHING TO RESIDE ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO PLENTY OF HEAT
AND HUMIDITY EARLY ON...ALONG WITH THE DAILY THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS...MOST LIKELY PEAKING WITHIN THE NORMAL DIURNAL
REGIME...ALTHOUGH AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...LARGER THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX ACTIVITY WILL ALSO PLAY A ROLE. HIGHS WILL PEAK IN THE LOW
90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE TAKING A BIT OF A
HIT AS A SHEARED OUT COLD FRONT ATTEMPTS TO MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HIGHS WILL DROP BACK INTO MAINLY THE 80S FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WORKWEEK...WITH SOME RELIEF FROM THE HUMIDITY BY THE
START OF NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
PATCHY MVFR CLOUDS AND FOG WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. A HOT AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL POTENTIALLY BECOME SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY
VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...ABE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
1022 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2015
...Forecast Update...
Updated at 1020 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2015
Wanted to give an updated on expected storm evolution this
afternoon. The latest guidance and satellite trends give growing
confidence that the storm initiation zone may end up being along and
south of the Ohio River. A thick cirrus shield from the convection
near Saint Louis, MO continues to push into southern Indiana and
even northern KY. This cloud canopy has provided a pretty good
differential heating boundary, with southern Indiana in the lower
70s and Louisville sitting at 80 degrees. Additionally, a dew point
gradient can be found along the Ohio River, with low to mid 70s to
the south and mid/upper 60s to the north. Therefore, think storms
will likely initiate along this boundary this afternoon (as the
latest HRRR runs suggest), then spread into portions of central and
even southern KY.
The good news with this more southern initiation is that southern IN
may see less of a threat for strong/severe storms. Additionally,
the deep-layer shear (0-6km) decreases over central/southern KY, so
storms look to only have around 30 knots of shear to work with.
This amount of shear will still be sufficient for a few severe
storms, with the main threat being damaging winds and hail to
around quarter-sized being a secondary threat.
Will have to watch the upstream evolution today for a potential MCS
this afternoon. Guidance is split on whether the convection now
firing near Kansas City, MO will organize into a linear system that
may push into our area this evening. Will leave forecast as is for
now and continue to monitor this scenario over the coming hours.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Updated at 317 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2015
...Strong to Severe Storms Possible This Afternoon and Evening...
The remnants of the MCS that has been moving through IL and IN this
morning is about to move into our southern Indiana counties. These
storms are expected to continue to weaken and dissipate across the
area this morning as the move into a more stable airmass.
The main concern today will be the possibility of strong to severe
storms this afternoon. A slowly moving from will approach from the
north this afternoon. A weak vortmax will interact with this
boundary this afternoon as the atmosphere is destabilizing, sparking
storm development by mid to late afternoon. There are a couple of
things making this forecast tricky for the afternoon, especially
with timing, but also the area that will see the most storms. The
first is where any remnant boundaries from this morning`s convection
end up. These could serve as a focus for storm initiation. The other
will be cloud debris from the MCS. How quickly this erodes and how
thick it is will play a role in destabilization as well. The edge
may serve as a differential heating boundary. The models are
struggling with this as well. GFS/NAM place the highest chance for
storms across southern IN and north central KY closer to the front
and the better upper level support. However, the WRF NMM and ARW
have convection firing south of the Ohio River and moving to the
south through the afternoon hours. Evolution of the cloud shield and
boundaries definitely bears monitoring today.
Regardless of placement, some strong to marginally severe storms
will be possible. Plenty of moisture will pool ahead of the front
with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s expected. Soundings show the
potential for 1000-3000 J/kg CAPE. However, shear will be marginal
around 30 knots and maximized across the northern half of the
forecast area. Strong winds will be the main threat with the
strongest storms with some small hail possible.
Convection should diminish late this evening and things should be
mostly quiet overnight. Another wave will move through on Monday
sparking storms in the late morning to afternoon. The best chance
for storms will be across southern IN and portions of the
Bluegrass.
The other concern will be the hot temperatures. Highs today will be
in the upper 80s to lower 90s with lower 90s in most locations on
Monday. Heat index values will peak in the upper 90s to low 100s.
These high heat index values can lead to overheating if precautions
are not taken.
.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 325 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2015
The majority of the week will feature ridging over much of the
southern U.S. with active westerly flow over the northern U.S. The
Ohio Valley will be on the edge of these zones making for a tricky
forecast as far as precipitation chances. Troughing does look to
attempt to push into the Midwest next weekend, providing at least a
cool down but continued on and off precipitation chances.
Tuesday - Wednesday...
Tues and Wed will be the hottest days in the long term period with
ridging strongest in our area on these days. Look for temps to top
out in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Humid conditions will exist
Tues/Wed with dewpts reaching the low to mid 70s both days. The
humidity combined with the hot temps will result in heat indices
reaching the 100-105 degree range each afternoon. While these
numbers fall just shy of heat advisory criteria, feel the hot/humid
conditions are still worth a mention in an SPS. Night time lows
will stay in the low to mid 70s.
As for precipitation chances, a sfc front should drop south into the
Ohio Valley late in the day Tues providing a focus for
showers/storms. Although we`ll lack good wind shear, plenty of
instability will exist with CAPE values on the order of 3000-4000
J/KG. Thus, think that some strong storms will be possible with
gusty winds and potentially some small hail being the main threats.
Late Tue night, models indicate an MCS will develop to our WNW and
push ESE into our region during the day on Wed. Again wind shear
looks unimpressive but CAPE values have the potential to soar quite
high again if we can get enough breaks in the clouds Wed morning.
Thus, we could again see strong storms Wed as well.
Thursday - Saturday...
For Thursday and Friday, the ridge will start to break down over the
Ohio Valley allowing the active westerly flow to sink into our
region. This type of flow will feature multiple hard to time
shortwaves which will cause showers/storms. Have limited POPs to
20-50% in the long term period due to lack of confidence in timing.
Better forcing for storms may be present for next weekend if a more
significant shortwave trough can develop as some models suggest.
Temperatures/humidity should generally be on the decline through the
weekend. While highs on Thurs should still be in the upper
80s/lower 90s, dewpts should be slightly lower resulting in heat
indices below 100. By Saturday, high temps should fall back into
the low to mid 80s.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 641 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2015
A front will approach the region today from the north. This will
bring a chance for scattered showers and storms to SDF and LEX this
afternoon. Have left VCTS out of BWG at this time due to more
uncertainty in the chances for thunderstorms there. However, it will
be monitored closely. Winds today will pick up through the morning
and become gusty out of the WSW during the day.
Storms and winds will be decreasing this evening with quiet
conditions and light winds out of the WSW through the overnight
hours.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........KJD
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......EER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
647 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 647 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DISSIPATED BEFORE IT WAS ABLE TO MOVE INTO
OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES SO WILL REMOVE ANY MENTION OF RAIN UNTIL
LATER THIS MORNING. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
TODAY/S FORECAST IS A BIT MORE COMPLICATED THAN I WOULD LIKE DUE
TO UPSTREAM MCS AND THE EFFECT IT/S DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL HAVE ON
POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY ACROSS OUR AREA.
BASED ON RAW EXTRAPOLATION...THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY OVER INDIANA WILL BE ENTERING OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES BY
AROUND DAWN. I EXPECT THIS LINE TO WEAKEN BUT A SMALL POP WILL BE
INCLUDED UP NORTH EARLY ON TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY.
CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
MORNING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT DESTABILIZATION
EARLY ON IN THE DAY DRAWING INTO QUESTION THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS SHOWN TO TAKE PLACE SO QUICKLY IN THE
21/00Z NAM OVER INDIANA AND OHIO. RECENT HRRR AND 21/00Z HIRES NMM
SEEM MORE REASONABLE IN HOLDING OFF ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. IT IS AT THIS TIME THAT
AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY...AND THEY COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG AS THEY HAVE A RICH
FUEL SOURCE OF LOW 70 DEGREE SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO TAP INTO. SPC
CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK
AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN OUR LOCAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST
AND WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING. LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES MAY THEN BE
THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THESE SHOULD REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE ANOTHER CONCERN DURING THE SHORT TERM.
CLOUD COVER EARLY IN THE DAY TODAY SHOULD SLOW OUR RISE A
BIT...BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPS TO REACH AROUND 90 BY AFTERNOON AND
THEN AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH DEWPOINTS PROGGED TO RISE INTO
THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START OUT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS RIDGE WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND GET DIRECTED TOWARD THE EAST...AS TRAVERSING
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY PROVIDES GLANCING BLOWS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TOWARDS THE MIDDLE AND ESPECIALLY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK...THE RIDGE WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING FOR MORE TROUGHING TO RESIDE ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO PLENTY OF HEAT
AND HUMIDITY EARLY ON...ALONG WITH THE DAILY THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS...MOST LIKELY PEAKING WITHIN THE NORMAL DIURNAL
REGIME...ALTHOUGH AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...LARGER THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX ACTIVITY WILL ALSO PLAY A ROLE. HIGHS WILL PEAK IN THE LOW
90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE TAKING A BIT OF A
HIT AS A SHEARED OUT COLD FRONT ATTEMPTS TO MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HIGHS WILL DROP BACK INTO MAINLY THE 80S FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WORKWEEK...WITH SOME RELIEF FROM THE HUMIDITY BY THE
START OF NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
PATCHY MVFR CLOUDS AND FOG WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. A HOT AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL POTENTIALLY BECOME SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY
VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ABE
SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...ABE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
610 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THE POST-TROPICAL REMAINS OF BILL WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
610 AM UPDATE...RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE POST-TROPICAL REMAINS OF
BILL ARE OVERSPREADING DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL MAINE EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD TO THE NORTHEAST THIS
MORNING. THE LATEST NEAR TERM MODEL RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP ARE
JUST A BIT FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE RAIN LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THIS AFTERNOON. WILL MAKE SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS/QPF FOR THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE POST-TROPICAL REMAINS OF FORMER TROPICAL
STORM BILL ARE EVIDENT ON SATELLITE PICTURES EARLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. THE LOW WILL LIFT ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION
LATE THIS MORNING...AND THEN ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE. THE LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS
NORTHERN NOVA SCOTIA BY 12Z MON. THE REMAINS OF BILL WILL ABSORB
MUCH OF THE ENERGY THAT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND THE
SOLUTIONS FROM ALL OF THE NEAR AND SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL MODELS
ARE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE THIS MORNING. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE
DOWNEAST REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
STEADY RAIN ABOUT AS FAR NORTH AS BAXTER STATE PARK AND HOULTON BY
LATE MORNING. NORTH OF THIS AREA THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS BUT IT
MAY REMAIN MOSTLY DRY IN THE ST JOHN VALLEY. THE RAIN WILL PULL
EAST AS THE LOW EXITS THE AREA TONIGHT. MADE FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE QPF AND POPS THROUGH TONIGHT BASED ON THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS. SOME OF THE RAIN TODAY WILL FALL HEAVILY AT
TIMES DOWN EAST AND THERE MAY EVEN BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
WITH A BIT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS...WHICH PERHAPS WAS SUFFERING FROM CNVCTV FEEDBACK ERRORS
WITH ITS SOLUTION WITH A SEPARATE S/WV FROM THE UPPER GREAT LKS...
HAS NOW COME IN LINE WITH THE OTHER 00Z DTMNSTC MODELS SUCH AS THE
CANGEM...ECMWF...AND NAM WHICH NOW INDICATE THE LIONS SHARE OF
RNFL TO BE OVR CNTRL AND DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA. THIS RESULTED IN
A SIG LOWERING OF QPF AND POPS ACROSS THE NRN THIRD THIRD...AND
SPCLY THE FAR N...WHERE LITTLE OR EVEN NO RNFL IS XPCTD. RATHER
THEN USE WPC 6 HRLY QPF GRIDS...WE STAYED WITH A BLEND OF DTMNSTC
MODEL 6 HRLY QPF THRU MON GIVEN THE NOW...UNIFORM TREND OF THE
DTMNSTC MODELS SO CLOSE TO THIS PTN OF THE FCST. ANY REMAINING
SHWRS SHOULD END MON EVE AS THE SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF BILL MOVE WELL E OVR THE OPEN N ATLC...AND A WEAK SFC
HI PRES MOVES E TOWARD THE FA FROM QB. THIS SFC RIDGE QUICKLY
MOVES E OF THE FA BY TUE MORN IN THE FAST WRLY FLOW REGIME ALF.
THE NEXT S/WV FROM S CNTRL CAN THEN QUICKLY ADVCS TOWARD THE FA
TUE AFTN FROM CNTRL QB. RNFL AMOUNTS LOOK TO RANGE FROM 0.15 TO
0.35 INCHES BY 00Z WED...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL LGT RNFL POSSIBLE
TUE EVE AS AN UPPER TROF CROSSES THE FA. TYPICAL OF THE MODELS...
THE GFS WAS ABOUT 3 TO 6 HRS FASTER WITH ONSET AND EXIT OF THIS
SYSTEM...SO WE WENT WITH A MIDDLE GROUND OF TMG BETWEEN ALL OF
THE FCST MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM. POPS WERE AGAIN BUMPED UPWARDS
TO A MAX OF CATEGORICAL. OTHERWISE...THE RECENT TREND OF COOL
DYTM HI TEMPS AND NEAR SEASONAL OVRNGT LOWS WILL CONT MON THRU
TUE.
$$
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OTHERWISE WEAK S/WVS FROM CNTRL CAN WILL CONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE
FA TUE NGT INTO SAT...DURG WHICH TM...AN UPPER LOW FROM LABRADOR
DROPS SWRD OVR THE ERN MARITIMES. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
UNSETTLED...SPCLY OVR NRN/ERN PTNS OF THE FA...WITH ISOLD TO WDLY
SCT SHWRS FROM TM TO TM...SPCLY IN THE AFTN TO ERLY EVE HRS...WHEN
LOW TO MID LVL INSTABILITY FROM DYTM HTG CAN BE XPCTD. BELOW
NORMAL HI TEMPS AND NEAR TO JUST BLO NORMAL LOW TEMPS WILL CONT...
WITH SOME WRMG POSSIBLE BY SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO IFR AT THE DOWNEAST TERMINALS
THIS MORNING WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR TONIGHT. AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR LATER THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS DOWN EAST MAINE TODAY.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: INITIALLY...MVFR CLGS AND BRIEF VSBYS XPCTD
MOST TAF SITES MON WITH SC CLD CVR AND SHWRS...THEN IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR XPCTD MON NGT...CONT INTO TUE MORN. CLDS AND VSBYS WILL THEN
LOWER MVFR TUE AFTN ALL TAF SITE WITH THE ADVC OF SHWRS FROM THE
W...LOWERING TO IFR TUE NGT. CONDITIONS THEN SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR
ON WED...WITH NRN MOST TAF SITES TAKING LONGEST TO IMPROVE...PERHAPS
AS LONG AS WED EVE. VFR SHOULD THEN PREVAIL OVER ALL SITES WED NGT
THROUGH THU.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: PUSHED BACK THE START TIME OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
BY A FEW HOURS AS THE WIND IS STILL LIGHT AND THE SEAS ONLY 1 TO 2
FEET ON THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. STILL EXPECT THE
WIND AND SEAS TO INCREASE BY LATER THIS MORNING.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: NO HDLNS XPCTD...XCPT FOR A BRIEF PD WITH A
SRLY WIND FETCH TUE INTO TUE EVE WHERE WVS IN PARTICULAR COULD
REACH SCA CRITERIA MSLY OVR OUR OUTER MZS. WENT WITH ABOUT 85
PERCENT OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS FOR THESE PTNS OF THE
CWF FCST.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...CB/VJN
MARINE...CB/VJN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1006 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY...MOVING THROUGH AND
STALLING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH LATE MONDAY...WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH ON TUESDAY. MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR EAST HAS RESULTED IN
A GOOD BIT OF CLEARING. WESTERLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE THE DRYING
TREND...ALTHOUGH VORT MAX WHICH REMAINS FROM AN OVERNIGHT MCS IS
NOW OVER WVA. THE HRRR (AND TO A LESSER EXTENT SOME OTHER MODELS)
DEVELOP SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THIS...BUT NOT SURE IF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE CONDUCIVE. MAY
MAKE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP FORECAST BUT OTHERWISE
THINK THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE RISK COMES MUCH LATER IN THE
DAY WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT. THE BEST
OVERLAP OF SHEAR...INSTBY AND FORCING IS TO OUR NW...BUT THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN SOME OF THE ACTIVITY INTO OUR AREA. A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS DESIGNATED FOR AREAS WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE RAISED A BIT
WITH A QUICK RISE INTO THE 80S SO FAR.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE GENERAL TREND WITH THESE COLD FRONTS THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS
HAS BEEN FOR THEIR WEAKENING/STALLING AS THEY REACH THE MID
ATLANTIC AND THIS FRONT APPEARS TO BE FOLLOWING THE SAME PATTERN.
ATTM THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN STALLS OVER SOUTHERN
VA BY MONDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHER HEADING EAST
DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE FRONT/SHORTWAVE ENERGY LOOK TO REACH
AREAS FURTHER EAST AFTR PEAK HEATING...WITH INSTABILITY DCRSNG.
WOULD LIKE TO HIGHLIGHT THAT ALL THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SCT
TSTMS IN THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...THEN WEAKENING...WITH
THEN REDEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHERN MD WHERE THE WLY FLOW INJECTS IN
STEEPER MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARLY
STALLS. THIS COULD BE OVERDONE A BIT...BUT SHOULD BE MONITORED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PCPN/CONVECTION TAPERS OFF BY 12Z MON MORNING...WITH A DRY PERIOD
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. THE STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL
SLOWLY LIFT TO THE NORTH BY MON AFTN...WHICH COUPLED WITH A
PASSING WEAK SHORTWAVE COULD ACT AS A TRIGGER FOR AFTN
CONVECTION...MOSTLY FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE SFC
BOUNDARY. ANYTHING THAT DOES FORM WILL TAPER OFF WITH LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING MON EVENING...WITH DRY CONDITIONS THE LATTER HALF
OF THE NIGHT.
TUES MORNING REMAINS DRY...WITH INCRG POPS BY THE AFTN WITH AN
UPPER LVL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION.
THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE REGION HAS ALREADY BEEN PLACED IN A
SLIGHT RISK...WITH THE MODELS HAVING BEEN HINTING AT THE SVR
POTENTIAL NOW FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. CONTINUING ABUNDANCE OF
MOISTURE AND TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 90S YET AGAIN WILL LEAD TO A
FAIRLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THIS COUPLED WITH SHEAR VALUES 30-40 KTS
SHOULD LEAD TO SCT DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO SVR STORMS. HEAT
INDICES MAY EXCEED 100 EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WHILE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER DAY 4...OVERALL PATTERN
SUGGESTS TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS (HIGHS IN
80S...LOWS IN M/U60S)...WITH A SLIGHT COOLING TREND TOWARD WEEKS
END. DIURNAL TSTM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE NEARLY EACH DAY IN WARM
AND HUMID AIRMASS. EXCEPTION TO DIURNAL STORMS WOULD BE TSTM
COMPLEXES THAT FORM TO OUR WEST AND MOVE OVER OUR AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT IN NW FLOW. INTENSITY OF ANY TSTMS WILL DEPEND ON TIMING
AND JUXTAPOSITION OF INSTABILITY WITH WIND FIELD...THINGS THAT ARE
TOO DIFFICULT TO DISCERN THIS FAR OUT. HOWEVER...WE ARE IN OUR
CLIMO PEAK SVR SEASON...AND WIND FIELD REMAINS MODERATE THROUGH
THE WEEK...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THEN THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WNW
GUSTS TO 20 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON.
SCT TSTMS PSBL THIS AFTN/EVENING...THOUGH MAINLY KMRB/KCHO/KIAD.
SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO EVEN SVR...WITH STRONG WINDS
AND SOME HAIL. OUTSIDE OF THE STORMS...WINDS WILL BE WLY THIS
REMAINING...BACKING TO THE SW BY THIS AFTN...ALL 12 KTS OR LESS.
VFR CONDITIONS TUES THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. EACH AFTN HAS THE
CHC FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS...WITH EACH BRINGING THE CHC OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST IS
RESULTING IN WNW WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT. WHILE GRADIENT
WEAKENS THROUGH THE DAY...MIXING MAY BE DEEP ENOUGH TO ALLOW
OCCASIONAL GUSTS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE THEREFORE ISSUED A
SCA FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH 6 PM. TSTMS PSBL THIS
EVENING...BRINGING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS. WINDS COULD BRIEFLY
TOUCH SCA LEVELS MONDAY ON THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...BUT TOO LOW OF
CONFIDENCE ATTM TO ISSUE A SCA.
WINDS COULD BRIEFLY APPROACH SCA CRITERIA IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
TUE AND AGAIN WED. NO HAZARDS EXPECTED THU...EXCEPT IN ISO TSTM
ACTIVITY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ADVISORY CONTINUES AT ANNAPOLIS UNTIL WATER LEVELS FALL LATER THIS
MORNING. APPEARS BALTIMORE WILL BE CLOSE BUT MAY FALL JUST SHORT.
WILL BE ASSESSING ALEXANDRIA AS HIGH TIDE WILL BE CLOSE.
GOOD NW WINDS TODAY SHOULD TAKE THE PRESSURE OFF BY PUSHING A LITTLE
OF THIS EXCESS OUT OF THE BAY. THEREFORE...NO ISSUES ANTICIPATED BYD
THE UPCOMING TIDE CYCLE.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ530>543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS
NEAR TERM...SEARS/ADS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...SEARS/ADS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS/ADS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
746 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE NRN
CONUS WITH A SHORTWAVE NOTED UPSTREAM OVER THE NRN MN. LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA HAS RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING.
TODAY...WEAK SFC RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE AREA WILL ALLOW LAKE
BREEZES TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. AT SAME TIME MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS
MLCAPE VALUES COULD CLIMB NEAR 500 J/KG OVER MAINLY THE SCNTRL FCST
AREA FROM NEAR ESC TO CRYSTAL FALLS. THIS INSTABILITY ALONG WITH THE
FOCUS PROVIDED BY THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES MAY BE ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER SOME ISOLD SHRA/TSRA OVER THE SCNTRL FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY
WITH MODELS SHOWING HINT OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY FARTHER NORTH AND
SOME MID LEVEL CAPPING NEAR 700 MB...NO AFTERNOON PCPN IS EXPECTED
OVER THE REST OF THE CWA. LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 60S NORTH AND EAST TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE WISCONSIN
BORDER COUNTIES.
TONIGHT...MID-LVL RIDGING MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP THE FCST
AREA DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. INCREASING Q-VECT CONVERGENCE
AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING IN A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA TO THE FAR
WESTERN CWA TOWARD 12Z MONDAY. HIGHER DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S
ADVECTING IN WITH A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF PLAINS SYSTEM
WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO MORE FOG/STRATUS FORMATION ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT OVER THE EAST HALF OF UPPER
MI...DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE SETUP FOR MON WHEN TWO WAVES (ONE W OF
OR AND WA AND ANOTHER OVER BC CANADA) MERGE AND SEND A POTENT
SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE REGION. WHILE THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT/VARIABILITY...MODELS GENERALLY INDICATE A LOW AROUND
1000MB MOVING FROM CENTRAL/SRN MN TO THE CENTRAL U.P. MON
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM LOOKS
TO HANG UP OVER CENTRAL OR NRN WI...WHICH IS SUFFICIENT TO KEEP
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE CWA. THE FORECAST FOR MON IS
EXTREMELY DEPENDENT ON CONVECTION AND EXACTLY WHERE THE WARM FRONT
SETS UP. MORNING CONVECTION WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE
COMPLICATION...WITH AN UNKNOWN LEVEL OF CLEARING/DESTABILIZATION.
CURRENT THINKING CONTINUES TO BE THAT EITHER A STRONG CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX OR CLUSTER OF SUPERCELL STORMS WILL MOVE S OF THE CWA IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...IF THE FRONT SURGES FARTHER N OR IF
ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP...SHEAR WILL BE VERY STRONG AND THE
OVERALL SYSTEM QUITE POTENT SO SEVERE STORMS WOULD LIKELY
RESULT...WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES ALL
CONDITIONALLY POSSIBLE. IT SEEMS THAT SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WI/MI
REGION (LIKELY FROM CENTRAL WI TO LOWER MI) WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE EVENT. AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A MORE
CLIMATOLOGICAL APPROACH (WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM)
WHICH KEEP STRONGER STORMS S OF THE CWA AND WILL NOT PUT ANY
STRONG/SEVERE EMPHASIS INTO THE HWO.
SHOULD SEE GRADUALLY CLEARING CONDITIONS BY TUE MORNING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THE CENTRAL U.S.. SHOULD SEE MARINE FOG NEAR ERN
LAKE SUPERIOR MON NIGHT AS NW WINDS BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE SWEEP FOG
ONSHORE. OTHERWISE...SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL ON TUE.
NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SOME THUNDER ARRIVES ON WED
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES OFF AND ON THROUGH THU AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. LIMITED THUNDER POTENTIAL TO SLIGHT CHANCES GIVEN
LIMITED INSTABILITY.
AN UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO BECOME DOMINANT OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR COOLER CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 735 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW VLIFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWS IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG/STRATUS COULD
REDEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT UNDER A MOIST S-SE FLOW...ESPECIALLY AT
KSAW WHERE CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP QUICKER TOWARD
SATURATION. INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM
OVER THE PLAINS MAY PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT AT KIWD AND KCMX SO KEPT
FOG/STRATUS OUT OF FCST THERE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL KEEP WINDS UNDER 20
KTS. A LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
MONDAY INTO MON EVENING. COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW
WILL SUPPORT WNW WINDS 20 TO 30 KTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING...STRONGEST OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH PRES
BUILDING BACK OVER THE AREA WILL THEN KEEP WINDS LIGHT AGAIN FROM
LATE TUE INTO THU.
LINGERING LOW-LVL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT FOG ACROSS THE LAKE...THAT
COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE FROM TODAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
1045 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.UPDATE...SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A 1021MB RIDGE FROM THE NORTHERN GULF
NOSING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. RIDGING ALOFT WAS
NOTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. RIDGING
SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER OUR REGION WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES AND
CONTRIBUTE TO WARMER TEMPERATURES THAT WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH
HUMIDITY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS RESULTING IN HIGHER HEAT INDEX VALUES.
TODAY...HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 100F IN MOST AREAS.
CLOUD COVER DUE TO EARLY CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS HAS SPREAD
OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES AND WAS LIMITING INSOLATION THERE SO FAR
TODAY. HAVE LOWERED AFTERNOON HIGHS THERE A COUPLE OF DEGREES AND
LOWER HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE NOW EXPECTED IN THE WEST TODAY. MUCH OF
OUR CWA WILL NOT SEE ANY STORMS TODAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH AND WEST. LOCAL WET
MICROBURST CHECKLIST SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
DUE TO GREATER INSTABILITY...OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WILL SEE THE BEST
CHANCE TODAY FOR A STRONG STORM OR TWO CAPABLE OF 40 TO 50 MPH WIND
GUSTS. /22/
&&
.AVIATION...OTHER THAN SOME VCTS AROUND JAN/HKS/MEI AND HBG THIS
AFTERNOON...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD./26/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015/
DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE ARKLAMISS AS WE GO THROUGH EARLY THIS
WEEK...EVENTUALLY PEAKING OVER THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. IN THE
NEAR TERM...A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE JUST WEST OF THE ARKLAMISS WILL
HELP TO DRAW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THIS HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER AIR WILL CIRCULATE THROUGH THE RIDGE AND HELP TO INCREASE
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN SPITE OF MOSTLY SUBSIDENT ANTI-
CYCLONIC FLOW. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LATE THIS
AFTN/EVNG SHOULD BE OVER THE PINE BELT WHERE COASTAL CONVERGENCE AND
LESS RIDGE INFLUENCE WILL BE FELT...A ALONG/W OF THE MS RIVER IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO RIDGE WEAKNESS. THE SPC SSEO REFLECTS THIS
GENERAL PATTERN AS DOES THE HRRR...ALTHOUGH THE HRRR SEEMS A BIT TOO
GENEROUS WITH COVERAGE. IN ANY CASE HAVE BOOSTED POPS UP ABOVE MOST
GUIDANCE VALUES IN THOSE AREAS...BUT THEY ARE STILL ON THE LOW SIDE.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SVR MICROBURSTS ASSUMING
THAT STORMS DEVELOP GIVEN STEEPER LAPSE RATES (VERTICAL TOTALS
~27-28, 0-3KM LAPSE RATES > 8.5 DEG C/KM). WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
MENTION OF SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARD PRODUCTS GIVEN VERY LIMITED
COVERAGE.
AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED...HEAT STRESS WILL BECOME A BIGGER CONCERN
GOING INTO MONDAY DUE TO THE INTENSIFYING RIDGE. FORECAST HEAT
INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH 105 BY MONDAY AFTN...SO WILL GO
AHEAD AND FORMALLY INTRODUCE A LIMITED THREAT FOR DANGEROUS HEAT
STRESS IN THE HWO/GRAPHICS. OTHERWISE...MORE ISOLATED/SCT DIURNAL
TSTM ACTIVITY MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS CAN BE
EXPECTED. MODELS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE GREATER INSTABILITY AND
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SVR MICROBURST ACTIVITY WITH STORMS LIKELY NOT
DISSIPATING UNTIL AFTER SUNSET IN HOT/HUMID AIRMASS. /EC/
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL OVERALL
REMAIN INTACT OVER THE CWA THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST DURING THIS TIME AS HIGHS PEAK IN THE
MID 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THIS MAY RESULT IN
DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES DURING SEVERAL AFTERNOONS NEXT WEEK...
PARTICULARLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON....AS THEY`RE PROGGED TO
RANGE BETWEEN 100-105F. THUS...I`LL MAINTAIN THE "LIMITED" POTENTIAL
FOR AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES REACHING TO NEAR 105F IN THE HWO FOR BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. OF COURSE... THIS COULD BE EXPANDED
FOR LATER IN THE WEEK IF NEEDED. WITH ALL THAT SAID...THIS LEVEL OF
HEAT WILL BE MONITORED DURING THE PERIOD AS HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE COULD INTERACT WITH CONVECTION ALONG THE
SEABREEZE TUESDAY. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY HELP TO INCREASE THE
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME. HENCE...THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
DURING THE PERIOD CURRENTLY LOOK TO FALL ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ROLL AROUND...MODELS ARE CURRENTLY IN
AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE BACK WEST OF THE
REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW A TROUGH TO BEGIN DIGGING SOUTH AND INTO
THE DEEP SOUTH DURING NEXT WEEKEND. /19/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 94 75 95 74 / 18 18 15 15
MERIDIAN 94 72 95 72 / 26 26 15 15
VICKSBURG 92 74 95 74 / 24 24 12 11
HATTIESBURG 94 75 95 75 / 26 26 27 23
NATCHEZ 92 74 93 75 / 26 26 22 20
GREENVILLE 93 75 96 75 / 17 12 11 6
GREENWOOD 94 74 96 75 / 10 10 14 9
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
22/26/EC/19
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
619 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
It was a typical June night over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures had cooled into the lower 70s, under
mostly clear skies and light southwesterly breezes.
A complex of thunderstorms were ongoing across northeast Missouri.
This feature threw an outflow boundary to the southwest, which
was moving into central Missouri. Convection was not developing
along the outflow, due to dry air in the mid levels, and strong
convective inhibition present within the Ozarks lower trop.
The hi-res ARW and NMM suggest that convection will eventually
fire along this boundary by 9-12z this morning. The HRRR along
with several other models keeps the Ozarks dry today. Given the
00z RAOB from last night, we will keep the forecast dry through
today, for the exception of some low end pops in central Missouri.
Look for temperatures to warm into the upper 80s and lower 90s
today.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
The summertime high attempts to build over the nation`s midsection
Monday through Thursday. This will bring sunshine, humidity, and hot
temperatures. Look for temperatures to range from the upper 80s to
the lower 90s on an afternoon basis through Thursday.
The periphery of the summertime high will act as a storm track for
a series of shortwave troughs. This storm track will reside across
northern Missouri or southern Iowa, so we will need to watch any
convection that may attempt to sneak into central Missouri. Right
now we`re going to keep precipitation chances in central Missouri
very conservative through Thursday. All other locations south of
Highway 54 can expect hot and dry weather through Thursday.
By Thursday night or Friday, the summer high re-positions across
the Mountain West, forcing northwest flow and a cold front into
southern Missouri. This will not only cool temperatures off, but
also bring our next widespread chance for showers and
thunderstorms.
Both the GFS and the ECMWF suggests precipitation chances to
continue through the upcoming weekend. It`s a little ways out to
get too specific about details, but we`ll have some chances going
in the forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 618 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR condtions are expected. Low
pressure moving out into the central Plains will keep dry s-sw sfc
winds in place. Progged low level wind fields support a marginal
mention of low level wind shear again late in the taf period.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
942 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
LATEST SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS EXPANDED THE ENHANCED AREA
FARTHER WEST. LATEST HRRR MAX LAYER COLUMN REFLECTIVITY VIDEO
LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO THE EVENT FROM THIS PAST FRIDAY. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE SLIDING OVER FAR SOUTHEAST BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND WESTERN ALBERTA ALONG WITH A 100KT JET STREAK.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES WERE NOTED EXTENDING FROM THE IDAHO
PANHANDLE ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA. AS MENTIONED IN THE EARLIER
DISCUSSION...AND LATEST HRRR...EXPECTATIONS FOR SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS BETWEEN 20Z AND 21Z WEST/NORTHWEST THEN MERGES
INTO A MCS/BOWING LINE SEGMENT BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z AS IT WORKS
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST NSHARP SOUNDINGS
SHOWS CIN ERODING COMPLETELY BY 20Z AT KISN/KDIK...AND BY 22Z AT
KMOT/KBIS.
HAVE COORDINATED WITH SPC AND WILL PERFORM AN 18Z UPPER AIR
LAUNCH. RAPID SCAN SATELLITE OPERATIONS IN EFFECT FROM 17Z SUNDAY
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. MINIMAL CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST AS THE
OVERALL THEME IS WELL CAPTURED AND REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY
THIS MORNING. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND OFF THE OREGON
COAST. SHORTWAVES TRAVELING AROUND THE BASES OF EACH OF THESE LOWS
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE ROCKIES TODAY...INDUCING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. KEEP ALERT TO THE LATEST WEATHER
CONDITIONS IF YOU ARE ENJOYING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TODAY.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE OTHER THAN
LOWERING SKY COVER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
IN THE LATEST SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS EXPANDED THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE STATE AND INCLUDED PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA IN AN ENHANCED RISK.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY
AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN WEST WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. THESE WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS AND LIFT FOR
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAP/NAM/GFS/WRF ALL INDICATE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY (2000 J/KG CAPE) AND SHEAR (50+ KNOTS) FOR
ORGANIZED SUPERCELLULAR DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONALLY...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A SICKLE OR SHARPLY VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH
HEIGHT. EVEN THOUGH LCL LEVELS VARY WIDELY FROM ONE MODEL TO
ANOTHER...GENERALLY THIS TYPE OF WIND PROFILE WOULD SUPPORT A
TORNADO THREAT...AT LEAST INITIALLY WITH SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.
THEREFORE...ALL TYPES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY (HAIL...DAMAGING WIND...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND A FEW
TORNADOES).
A VERY SIMILAR SET UP TO FRIDAY IS POSSIBLE...WITH ISOLATED CELLS
CONGEALING INTO A BOWING MCS BY THE EVENING HOURS. THE WRF
ACTUALLY HAS TWO SEPARATE COMPLEXES MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA...ONE EXITING THE AREA BY AROUND 7 PM AND ANOTHER MOVING
THROUGH CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT. THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH THESE
COMPLEXES WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION MONDAY MORNING IN
THE WAKE OF THE SHORT TERM SYSTEM...MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A
SHORT DRY SPELL AS HIGH PRESSURE TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN REMAINS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL JET
REMAINS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD DURING THIS PERIOD SO AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...BUT FOR NOW WE
HAVE A DRY FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT AND JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM FAR SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY AND
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A
BRIEF BREAK IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS GFS/ECMWF INDICATE SHORTWAVE
RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST AREA...AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT BRINGS AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO INCREASE BY THIS TIME SO CERTAINTY BEGINS
TO WANE AS WE MOVE LATE INTO THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS MODELS ARE INDICATING A BUILDING WESTERN RIDGE
BUT THE GFS IS MUCH SLOWER WITH AN UNSETTLED BEGINNING TO THE
WEEKEND. THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD BRING A DRIER WEEKEND...BUT NOT
COMPLETELY WITHOUT A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AS A NORTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS...AND SHORTWAVES ARE ALWAYS A CONCERN IN THIS FLOW.
HOWEVER...AREAL COVERAGE WOULD BE MUCH LESS THAN THE GFS
SOLUTION...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THIS MORNING
AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.
THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
1014 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WORKING INTO THE REGION TODAY WILL BRING THE CHANCE
FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK AS VARIOUS DISTURBANCES AFFECT THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL SQUARELY ON CONVECTIVE /AND SEVERE/
POTENTIAL THROUGH THE PEAK OF THE DIURNAL CYCLE INTO THE MID EVENING.
21.12Z KILN RAOB SAMPLED A VERY WARM LOWER TROPOSPHERE WITH 900MB
TEMPS TO 26C AND STEEP LAPSE RATE/MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ABOVE
THAT MORNING INVERSION. CONVECTIVE REMNANT CLOUDS FROM NIGHTTIME
MCS HAVE BEEN ERODING AND HEATING/INSOLATION IS OCCURRING BUT
THICKER MID/HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LOOM OVER INDIANA.
AMALGAM OF STORMSCALE GUIDANCE THIS MORNING POINTS TO WIDELY
DISPARATE SCENARIOS - AND THIS IS LIKELY TIED TO WEAK/NEBULOUS
FORCING AND EFFECTIVE OUTFLOWS FROM OVERNIGHT MCS ACTIVITY.
RECENT NCEP HRRR RUNS ARE ADAMANT THAT THE BULK OF THE DAY REMAINS
QUIET FOR THE ILN FORECAST AREA WITH INCIPIENT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT OVER KY ON LEADING EDGE OF DECAYED INDIANA MCS. 21.00Z
ARW-WRF WINDOW VERY SIMILAR TO THAT...AS WAS THE 21.00Z SPC/EMC
WRF. THESE DATA ALL SUGGEST A FURTHER SOUTH CONVECTIVE INITIATION
LIKELY DUE TO HANDLING OF MCS OUTFLOW/DEBRIS CLOUD.
CONTRARILY...21.00Z STORMSCALE ENSEMBLE FROM NCAR STILL POINTING
OF HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER SOUTHERN OHIO
IN THE 19-20Z TIMEFRAME /ALTHOUGH THIS FORECAST A MUCH MORE MUTED
VERSION OF ITS PRIOR FORECAST/ WITH A SCT-BKN CONVECTIVE LINE
SAGGING INTO NRN KY THIS EVENING. THE 21.00Z SSEO LIES MORE IN
LINE THE HRRR/ARW/SPC WRF - BUT DOES HAVE SOME PROBABILITIES OF
STORM INITIATION/SEVERE THREAT IN FAR SRN OHIO/NRN KY.
BOTTOM LINE - THERE ARE CONCERNS FOR BOUNDARY LAYER FORCING FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION AS SFC WIND FLOW DOES NOT APPEAR OVERLY
CONVERGENT. INBOUND /BUT ERODING/ DEBRIS CLOUD ALSO OF CONCERN.
NEW 21.09Z SREF CALIBRATED SVR PROBS HAVE BACKED DOWN NOTABLY OVER
THE FORECAST AREA - BUT ARE NONZERO.
CURRENT FORECAST THINKING THAT SCT STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AFT 18Z IN
SRN OHIO AND NRN KY ON ONE OR TWO RESIDUAL OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING ZONES. FORECAST CAPE/SHEAR SUGGESTS ENOUGH FLOW /0-6KM
SHEAR OF 25-30KT/ FOR MODEST STORM ORGANIZATION AND
DCAPE/DIFFERENTIAL THETA-E SUGGESTS A WIND THREAT FIRST...WITH
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGESTING HAIL COULD BE DECENT IN THE
STRONGEST CORES. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS WEAK THUS NOT EXPECTING MUCH
OF A TOR THREAT. ANY STORMS WHICH FORM WILL SINK E-SE TOWARD AND
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER THIS EVENING. NOT ENOUGH SIGNAL TO GO
ANYWHERE HIGHER THAN 40-50% ON RAIN CHANCES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONT WHICH DROPPED IN ON SUNDAY WILL START TO LEFT BACK AS A WARM
FRONT MONDAY. SOME SCT CONVECTION COULD START TO DEVELOP IN THE
CINCY TRI-STATE LATE TONIGHT ON THE FRONT AND WILL TRY AND BUILD
NE.
A STRONG LOWS PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RACE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. A CDFNT WILL WILL DRAG ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY AND WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF CONVECTION.
HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S NORTH UP
TO AROUND 90 SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US WITH ACTIVE BAND OF
WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AND GREAT LAKES TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS WEEK. A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS TO COME
THRU THE WESTERLY FLOW WITH E-W SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATING
NORTH/SOUTH ACRS THE REGION.
FRONT LOOKS TO FOCUS BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION ACRS SRN FA LATER
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY TO LIFT BACK NORTH LATER WED INTO
THURSDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SFC WAVE.
MID LEVEL FLOW AMPLIFIES AND BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY AS THIS SFC WAVE
SHIFTS EAST. HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FCST FRIDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
VERY HIGH. IF THIS DRY PERIOD DOES OCCUR IT LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED
WITH NEXT WAVE PIVOTING THRU GREAT LAKES NEXT SATURDAY. HAVE SPREAD
CHANCE POPS BACK IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S FAR NORTH TO UPPER
80S/NEAR 90 SOUTH. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER NEXT FRIDAY/SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS FROM 80 NORTH TO MID 80S SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MCS DIED OUT AS IT SWEPT THROUGH CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. IT
APPEARS THAT THE 6Z NAM HAS AN IDEA WITH UPSTREAM RAIN IN CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND PROGRESSES IT THROUGH SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN
KENTUCKY IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME WEAK RETURNS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN OHIO BUT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE CWA
LOOKS TO BE LACKING THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN AS THE RETURNS WEAKEN
OVER CENTRAL OHIO...FEW STRATOCU CLOUDS UNDER 6KFT ARE APPARENT
AND THE BULK OF ANY CLOUD COVER IS OVER 10KFT.
ATTEMPTED TO HAVE SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST BETWEEN 17 AND 20Z FOR
MOST AREAS AND EXPECT A QUICK DISSIPATION TO ANY CLOUDS BEHIND
WHAT RAIN DOES DEVELOP. WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10KT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME PATCHY FOG.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...BINAU
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1113 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
OUR REGION WILL BE IN THE WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE
NORTHERN FLANK OF A MASSIVE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THUS AS COLD
FRONTS APPROACH THEY CAN RAPIDLY PULL IN SOME WARM MOIST
AIR...TUESDAY SHOULD BE WARM AS A WAVE APPROACHES AND PULLS IN 18
TO 21C AIR AT 850 HPA. LONGER TERM IS OPTIMISTIC THAT THE WAVES
SLOWLY CARVE OUT A TROUGH AND PROVIDE FOR A PROGRESSIVELY COOLER
AND DRIER PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED FORECAST GRIDS AND THUS FORECASTS WITH LATEST GUIDANCE AND
OBSERVATIONS. MOST IMPACT WAS ON IMPROVING THE SKIES AND SUNSHINE.
A WELCOME SITE AFTER THE CLOUDS AND RAIN LAST EVENING.
USED A BASE ENSEMBLE FOR POPS AND ADDED THE SCATTERED TEXTURE OF
THE HRRR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON TO SHOW THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY PUSHING DRIER AIR INTO PA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE THEME IS SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
AND COULD PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
IS IN THE HRRR ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
LATER IT SHOWS EVEN MORE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS IN SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL. CHANCE OF RAIN...IN HRRR...IS VERY LOW IN SOUTHEAST.
SOME INDICATIONS ARE AND SPC HAS AN OUTLOOK FOR THIS...SOME STORMS
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE SO IN THUNDERSTORMS USED STRONGER
VARIETY FOR WORDING.
RADAR INDICATES HRRR MAY BE ON TO SOMETHING IN WEST/NW PA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. WILL UPDATE AS NEED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS WE DRY OUT.
NICE DAY MONDAY...SOME AFTERNOON CAPE COULD BRING BACK THREAT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE ANEMIC COLD FRONT THAT COMES THROUGH SUNDAY
GETS OVERRUN BY WARM AIR MONDAY AFTERNOON...850 HPA TEMPERATURES
GO ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN BY LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WARM
ADVECTION AND INCREASING MOISTURE SUGGESTS SOME SHOWER POTENTIAL
IN THE WEST. PW AND TEMPS GO BACK ABOVE NORMAL LATE MONDAY.
TUESDAY SHOULD BE TOASTY!
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAST ZONAL FLOW WILL BE THE PERSISTENT SYNOPTIC FEATURE ACROSS
THE LOWER 48 DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AND THE DRYING OF
SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. WITH A HOT 594DM
500 MB UPPER RIDGE CENTERED FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO THE MID
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY...RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE AND
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS BOUNDARY NOW APPEARS TO STALL OUT ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE PA/MD
BORDER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...GIVING SOME HOPE OF A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER TO AT LEAST NORTHERN PA.
HOWEVER...JUST A SLIGHT NORTHWARD OSCILLATION IN THE PATTERN WOULD
NUDGE MOISTURE AND SHOWER CHANCES BACK TO THE NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME RESIDUAL MVFR ABOUT THE REGION THIS MORNING. THOUGH MOST
AREAS OF SCATTERED OUT. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY.
TRIED TO TIME IN THE FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS HEADED INTO
WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN PA. FIRST BATCH COULD ARRIVE IN KBFD AROUND
16Z AND PERHAPS CLOSER TO 17Z IN KJST. GUIDANCE SHOWS A BROKEN
LINE OF SHOWERS CROSSING NORTH-CENTRAL PA THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME MORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
THINGS DRY OUT LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET...SURGE OF WARM AIR AHEAD OF A FRONT
LATE IN THE DAY COULD TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE WEST.
WARMER HUMID AIR COULD PRODUCE PATCH FOG TUESDAY AM. BETTER CHANCE
SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MON...VFR.
TUE...MAINLY VFR...MVFR PSBL AM FOG AND SCT SHRA/TSRA IN PM.
WED-THU...GENERALLY VFR AREAS AM MVFR IN FOG/HAZE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER/MARTIN
AVIATION...GRUMM/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1040 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
OUR REGION WILL BE IN THE WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE
NORTHERN FLANK OF A MASSIVE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THUS AS COLD
FRONTS APPROACH THEY CAN RAPIDLY PULL IN SOME WARM MOIST
AIR...TUESDAY SHOULD BE WARM AS A WAVE APPROACHES AND PULLS IN 18
TO 21C AIR AT 850 HPA. LONGER TERM IS OPTIMISTIC THAT THE WAVES
SLOWLY CARVE OUT A TROUGH AND PROVIDE FOR A PROGRESSIVELY COOLER
AND DRIER PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED FORECAST GRIDS AND THUS FORECASTS WITH LATEST GUIDANCE AND
OBSERVATIONS. MOST IMPACT WAS ON IMPROVING THE SKIES AND SUNSHINE.
A WELCOME SITE AFTER THE CLOUDS AND RAIN LAST EVENING.
USED A BASE ENSEMBLE FOR POPS AND ADDED THE SCATTERED TEXTURE OF
THE HRRR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON TO SHOW THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY PUSHING DRIER AIR INTO PA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE THEME IS SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
AND COULD PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
IS IN THE HRRR ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
LATER IT SHOWS EVEN MORE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS IN SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL. CHANCE OF RAIN...IN HRRR...IS VERY LOW IN SOUTHEAST.
SOME INDICATIONS ARE AND SPC HAS AN OUTLOOK FOR THIS...SOME STORMS
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE SO IN THUNDERSTORMS USED STRONGER
VARIETY FOR WORDING.
RADAR INDICATES HRRR MAY BE ON TO SOMETHING IN WEST/NW PA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. WILL UPDATE AS NEED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS WE DRY OUT.
NICE DAY MONDAY...SOME AFTERNOON CAPE COULD BRING BACK THREAT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE ANEMIC COLD FRONT THAT COMES THROUGH SUNDAY
GETS OVERRUN BY WARM AIR MONDAY AFTERNOON...850 HPA TEMPERATURES
GO ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN BY LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WARM
ADVECTION AND INCREASING MOISTURE SUGGESTS SOME SHOWER POTENTIAL
IN THE WEST. PW AND TEMPS GO BACK ABOVE NORMAL LATE MONDAY.
TUESDAY SHOULD BE TOASTY!
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAST ZONAL FLOW WILL BE THE PERSISTENT SYNOPTIC FEATURE ACROSS
THE LOWER 48 DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AND THE DRYING OF
SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. WITH A HOT 594DM
500 MB UPPER RIDGE CENTERED FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO THE MID
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY...RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE AND
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS BOUNDARY NOW APPEARS TO STALL OUT ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE PA/MD
BORDER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...GIVING SOME HOPE OF A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER TO AT LEAST NORTHERN PA.
HOWEVER...JUST A SLIGHT NORTHWARD OSCILLATION IN THE PATTERN WOULD
NUDGE MOISTURE AND SHOWER CHANCES BACK TO THE NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IFR AND LOWER IS STILL PERSISTING OVER THE FAR WESTERN TAF
SITES...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES IN MVFR CIGS. THESE
REDUCING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE
MORNING...MAINLY BETWEEN 13Z TO 15Z. ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION
WILL MOVE EASTWARD...WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE NW LATE THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE BY
MID TO LATE MORNING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD TRIGGER A ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE DRIER AIR
MOVES IN TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
MONDAY LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET...WE WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF A
MASSIVE RIDGE WHICH IMPLIES WARM DAYS AND MVFR POSSIBLE IN
FOG/HAZE IN MORNINGS.
OUTLOOK...
MON...GENERALLY VFR.
TUE...REDUCTIONS PSBL IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.
WED-THU...GENERALLY VFR AREAS AM MVFR IN FOG/HAZE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER/MARTIN
AVIATION...CERU/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
811 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM WILL WILL MOVE AWAY
FROM THE REGION TODAY. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND
MOVE INTO THE KEYSTONE STATE LATER TODAY. A MUCH STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM WELL INTO THE 90S ON TUESDAY...BEFORE COOLER AIR MOVES IN BY
MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLEANED UP THE GRIDS TO SHOW THE CLEAR SLOT BETWEEN THE REMNANTS
OF BILL OFF THE COAST AND THE SHORT WAVES AND CLOUDS APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. MOST GUIDANCE AND DATA SHOWS A STRONG MESO RIDGE
AND OF COURSE SUBSIDENCE OVER OUR REGION. A GOOD SLICE OF CENTRAL
PA IS MOSTLY CLEAR...THOUGH IN THE MOUNTAINS LOW CLOUDS ARE
RUSHING IN TO FILL THE GAPS.
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS SHOULD BE RAIN FREE THIS AM.
SHORT WAVE TO WEST AND A FORECAST SURGE OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER
PW...PRETTY HIGH ALREADY...AND SOME CAPE ALONG WITH A STRONG LOW-
LEVEL JET IMPLY CONVECTION AND PERHAPS STRONG CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE 10Z HRRR IS SHOWING WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION AT THIS TIME. NOT VERY ORGANIZED. BUT THE
FEATURES THEMSELVES HAD PUT SW PORTIONS OF PA IN A SLIGHT RISK
THIS AFTERNOON.
KEPT GENERAL THUNDER WITH STRONG STORMS POTENTIAL IN FORECAST. NOT
SURE EXACTLY WHERE. PERHAPS LATER HRRR RUNS WILL TEND TO ORGANIZE
THIS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
BEHIND ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS...WE BEGIN TO DRY OUT AND
OVERNIGHT THE PW FINALLY DROPS. THE STICKY EVENING IN THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN AREAS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A PLEASANT AM MONDAY.
SHOULD BE A RELATIVELY DRY BUT NEAR NORMAL SUMMER DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAST ZONAL FLOW WILL BE THE PERSISTENT SYNOPTIC FEATURE ACROSS
THE LOWER 48 DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AND THE DRYING OF
SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. WITH A HOT 594DM
500 MB UPPER RIDGE CENTERED FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO THE MID
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY...RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE AND
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS BOUNDARY NOW APPEARS TO STALL OUT ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE PA/MD
BORDER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...GIVING SOME HOPE OF A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER TO AT LEAST NORTHERN PA.
HOWEVER...JUST A SLIGHT NORTHWARD OSCILLATION IN THE PATTERN WOULD
NUDGE MOISTURE AND SHOWER CHANCES BACK TO THE NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IFR AND LOWER IS STILL PERSISTING OVER THE FAR WESTERN TAF
SITES...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES IN MVFR CIGS. THESE
REDUCING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE
MORNING...MAINLY BETWEEN 13Z TO 15Z. ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION
WILL MOVE EASTWARD...WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE NW LATE THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE BY
MID TO LATE MORNING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD TRIGGER A ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE DRIER AIR
MOVES IN TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
MONDAY LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET...WE WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF A
MASSIVE RIDGE WHICH IMPLIES WARM DAYS AND MVFR POSSIBLE IN
FOG/HAZE IN MORNINGS.
OUTLOOK...
MON...GENERALLY VFR.
TUE...REDUCTIONS PSBL IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.
WED-THU...GENERALLY VFR AREAS AM MVFR IN FOG/HAZE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/DEVOIR/MARTIN
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER/MARTIN
AVIATION...CERU/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1047 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
REMAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HOT TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
RETURN AS A STALLED FRONT REMAINS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK...THE HOT PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN AS
A TROUGH MOVES SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT SUNDAY...LIGHT WNW FLOW CONTINUES TO PREVAIL UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH LOW CLOUDS STARTING TO BLOSSOM OVER THE SW
MTNS. ASIDE FOR ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN THIS
AFTN...LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR A FRONTAL ASSOCIATED MCS
SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHEAST KY AND NORTHEAST TN THIS EVENING...HOWEVER
WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES/ENTERS WESTERN NC...THUS NO CHANGES TO
POPS WERE NEEDED. OTHERWISE...TWEAKED TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS ALONG
WITH SKY TO REFLECT MOST RECENT OBS/SAT AND LEFT THE REMAINDER OF
THE FCST AS IS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
430 AM EDT UPDATE...CURRENT NEAR TERM FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. MADE
MINOR TWEAKS TO HR/LY TEMPS. ADDED AFTERNOON ISOL TSTMS ACROSS THE
WRN UPSTATE AND NE GA BASED ON LATEST CAM AND RAP TRENDS TOWARD LESS
CCL-LFC CIN LEVELS.
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFTS BACK INTO A MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME
CONFIG TODAY. SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL REASSERT ITSELF ACROSS THE SE
CONUS CREATING A DIFFUSE WIND PROFILE ALOFT. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW DEEP
NEGATIVE OMEGA OUTSIDE THE MTNS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LIMITED
AVAILABLE LLVL MOISTURE. YET THE OP MODELS ARE MIXED WRT TO AMOUNT
OF PARCEL DESTABILIZATION. THE NAM SHOWS A POTENTIAL OF THE SUBS
INVERSION BEING BROKE AND ISOL EXPLOSIVE STORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NON/MTNS. THE NAM ALSO HOLDS ONTO SOME MEASURE OF CIN ARND THE CCL THO.
THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND HAS UNBREAKABLE SBCIN AND NO POTENTIAL FOR
SIGFNT CONVECTION. WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE RAW MODELS FOR POP WHICH
KEEPS LESS THAN ISOL NON/MTNS ANS ISOL/SCT MTNS. THIS AGREES WELL
WITH THE SREF OUTPUT AND THE LATEST CAMS...BUT FUTURE UPDATES COULD
INTRODUCE ISOL CONVEC NON/MTNS. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...LIKELY M90S EAST AND U80S MTN VALLEYS. THE
BEST AFTERNOON TD MIXING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE ERN ZONES WHICH
WILL KEEP MENTION OF HI/S OUT OF THE HWO.
THE OVERNIGHT WILL FEATURE A QUICK REDUCTION OF DEBRIS CLOUDS AND
STEEP SFC-BASED INVERSIONS. MTN VALLEYS...MAINLY THE FRENCH BROAD AND
LITTLE TN...WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SUBJECT TO FG/BR ISSUES ARND
DAYBREAK...ESP WHERE PRECIP FALLS THIS EVENING. EVEN WITH GOOD RAD
COOLING THE ATMOS REMAINS RATHER STAGNANT WRT MIXING RATIOS...THUS
MINS WILL REMAIN A COUPLE CATS ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT SUNDAY...A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY. AN MCS
ORIGINATING IN THE UPPER MIDWEST MAY PASS JUST N OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT. OTHERWISE...ISOLD CONVECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED IN AND NEAR
THE MTNS IN LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD CONVERGENCE DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIODS. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WITH SOME HEAT INDEX VALUES
REACHING 100 TO 105 IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF MON AFTN.
STRONG UPPER HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON TUE AS THE BELT OF
BETTER WESTERLIES STAYS JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. 850 MB
WINDS WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY AND A PIEDMONT SFC TROUGH SHOULD
BECOME A BIT MORE PROMINENT. HOWEVER...MODEL PROFILES RETAIN QUITE A
BIT OF CAPPING AND NEGATIVE AREA ALOFT SO CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY BE MINIMIZED. WILL CONFINED ISOLD COVERAGE TO THE MTNS...BUT
TSTMS WILL BE STRONG ANY PLACE THEY MANAGE TO FORM. MAX TEMPS WILL
APPROACH 100 MAINLY ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 85.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM EDT SUNDAY...STRONG RIDGING CONTINUES ON WED BUT WITH A
POSSIBLE MCS TRACK SETTING UP IN THE WNW FLOW FROM THE MIDWEST TO
THE NC/VA LINE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE. THERE APPEARS TO BE A
TOUCH LESS CAPPING IN PROFILES...WHICH SHOULD PERMIT BETTER
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE DURING THE AFTN/EVENING. WILL FEATURE
A NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT IN POP WITH HIGH CHANCES OVER THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 NEARER ANY POSSIBLE MCS TRACKS
THROUGH WED EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF UPPER 90S TEMPS IS LIKELY WED
AFTN ACROSS THE SE HALF...WITH WELL ABOVE CLIMO MAXES/MINS
THROUGHOUT.
HEIGHTS SHOULD GRADUALLY FALL THU THROUGH FRI ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...BUT WITH THE REGION REMAINING IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD
OF ANY COLD FRONTS APPROACHING FROM THE N OR NW. MAXES/MINS REMAIN
10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO THU BUT THEN SLOWLY MODERATING WHILE STAYING
ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD
OVER THE DEVELOPMENT OF EASTERN TROUGHING BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS
SHOWS BROAD AND WEAK ERN TROUGHING WITH BETTER HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS MORE ROBUST EASTERN
TROUGHING WITH A CLOSED SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE TRENDED MORE ECMWF LIKE RECENTLY AND THE
FORECAST WILL LEAN IN THAT DIRECTION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A CATEGORY
ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH SATURDAY WITH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE PICKING UP AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES/ARRIVES FROM THE NW.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THRU THE PERIOD. BROAD ULVL RIDGING
WILL RETURN TO THE SE CONUS AND GOOD SUBS WILL KEEP VERTICAL CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT AT BAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH
SFC WINDS 5-9 KTS ALIGNING S OF WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP AFTERNOON CONVECTION
LIMITED...MAINLY ISOL ACROSS THE NC/GA/SC MTNS WITH NO TAF MENTION
NEEDED AT KAVL. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL MAINTAIN UPVALLEY WINDS
AT KAVL AND SW/LY TO W/LY ALL OTHER TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN DIURNAL INTO THE WORK
WEEK. AS A RESULT...THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA
WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN NC WHERE THE LEAST SUBSIDENCE WILL RESIDE.
MORNING RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG AND/OR STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE...
PARTICULARLY WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL THE PREVIOUS DAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
14-20Z 20-02Z 02-08Z 08-12Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 74%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...WITH YEARS IN WHICH THE
VALUES WERE LAST REACHED.
MONDAY JUNE 22...
AVL 94 1964
CLT 98 1956
GSP 99 2006
TUESDAY JUNE 23...
AVL 93 1988
CLT 98 1988
GSP 99 1988
WEDNESDAY JUNE 24...
AVL 94 1952
CLT 102 1930
GSP 100 1952
THURSDAY JUNE 25...
AVL 96 1952
CLT 102 1914
GSP 101 1952
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...CDG/SBK
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...SBK
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
631 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
REMAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HOT TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
RETURN AS A STALLED FRONT REMAINS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK...THE HOT PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN AS
A TROUGH MOVES SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM EDT UPDATE...NO SIGFNT CHANGES NEED TO THE FCST. TEMPS AND
TD/S TWEAKED SLIGHTLY...MAINLY ACROSS THE SRN UPSTATE WHERE HR/LYS
WERE BUMPED UP A DEGREE OR TWO.
430 AM EDT UPDATE...CURRENT NEAR TERM FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. MADE
MINOR TWEAKS TO HR/LY TEMPS. ADDED AFTERNOON ISOL TSTMS ACROSS THE
WRN UPSTATE AND NE GA BASED ON LATEST CAM AND RAP TRENDS TOWARD LESS
CCL-LFC CIN LEVELS.
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFTS BACK INTO A MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME
CONFIG TODAY. SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL REASSERT ITSELF ACROSS THE SE
CONUS CREATING A DIFFUSE WIND PROFILE ALOFT. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW DEEP
NEGATIVE OMEGA OUTSIDE THE MTNS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LIMITED
AVAILABLE LLVL MOISTURE. YET THE OP MODELS ARE MIXED WRT TO AMOUNT
OF PARCEL DESTABILIZATION. THE NAM SHOWS A POTENTIAL OF THE SUBS
INVERSION BEING BROKE AND ISOL EXPLOSIVE STORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NON/MTNS. THE NAM ALSO HOLDS ONTO SOME MEASURE OF CIN ARND THE CCL THO.
THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND HAS UNBREAKABLE SBCIN AND NO POTENTIAL FOR
SIGFNT CONVECTION. WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE RAW MODELS FOR POP WHICH
KEEPS LESS THAN ISOL NON/MTNS ANS ISOL/SCT MTNS. THIS AGREES WELL
WITH THE SREF OUTPUT AND THE LATEST CAMS...BUT FUTURE UPDATES COULD
INTRODUCE ISOL CONVEC NON/MTNS. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...LIKELY M90S EAST AND U80S MTN VALLEYS. THE
BEST AFTERNOON TD MIXING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE ERN ZONES WHICH
WILL KEEP MENTION OF HI/S OUT OF THE HWO.
THE OVERNIGHT WILL FEATURE A QUICK REDUCTION OF DEBRIS CLOUDS AND
STEEP SFC-BASED INVERSIONS. MTN VALLEYS...MAINLY THE FRENCH BROAD AND
LITTLE TN...WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SUBJECT TO FG/BR ISSUES ARND
DAYBREAK...ESP WHERE PRECIP FALLS THIS EVENING. EVEN WITH GOOD RAD
COOLING THE ATMOS REMAINS RATHER STAGNANT WRT MIXING RATIOS...THUS
MINS WILL REMAIN A COUPLE CATS ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT SUNDAY...A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY. AN MCS
ORIGINATING IN THE UPPER MIDWEST MAY PASS JUST N OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT. OTHERWISE...ISOLD CONVECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED IN AND NEAR
THE MTNS IN LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD CONVERGENCE DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIODS. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WITH SOME HEAT INDEX VALUES
REACHING 100 TO 105 IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF MON AFTN.
STRONG UPPER HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON TUE AS THE BELT OF
BETTER WESTERLIES STAYS JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. 850 MB
WINDS WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY AND A PIEDMONT SFC TROUGH SHOULD
BECOME A BIT MORE PROMINENT. HOWEVER...MODEL PROFILES RETAIN QUITE A
BIT OF CAPPING AND NEGATIVE AREA ALOFT SO CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY BE MINIMIZED. WILL CONFINED ISOLD COVERAGE TO THE MTNS...BUT
TSTMS WILL BE STRONG ANY PLACE THEY MANAGE TO FORM. MAX TEMPS WILL
APPROACH 100 MAINLY ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 85.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM EDT SUNDAY...STRONG RIDGING CONTINUES ON WED BUT WITH A
POSSIBLE MCS TRACK SETTING UP IN THE WNW FLOW FROM THE MIDWEST TO
THE NC/VA LINE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE. THERE APPEARS TO BE A
TOUCH LESS CAPPING IN PROFILES...WHICH SHOULD PERMIT BETTER
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE DURING THE AFTN/EVENING. WILL FEATURE
A NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT IN POP WITH HIGH CHANCES OVER THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 NEARER ANY POSSIBLE MCS TRACKS
THROUGH WED EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF UPPER 90S TEMPS IS LIKELY WED
AFTN ACROSS THE SE HALF...WITH WELL ABOVE CLIMO MAXES/MINS
THROUGHOUT.
HEIGHTS SHOULD GRADUALLY FALL THU THROUGH FRI ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...BUT WITH THE REGION REMAINING IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD
OF ANY COLD FRONTS APPROACHING FROM THE N OR NW. MAXES/MINS REMAIN
10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO THU BUT THEN SLOWLY MODERATING WHILE STAYING
ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD
OVER THE DEVELOPMENT OF EASTERN TROUGHING BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS
SHOWS BROAD AND WEAK ERN TROUGHING WITH BETTER HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS MORE ROBUST EASTERN
TROUGHING WITH A CLOSED SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE TRENDED MORE ECMWF LIKE RECENTLY AND THE
FORECAST WILL LEAN IN THAT DIRECTION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A CATEGORY
ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH SATURDAY WITH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE PICKING UP AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES/ARRIVES FROM THE NW.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THRU THE PERIOD. BROAD ULVL RIDGING
WILL RETURN TO THE SE CONUS AND GOOD SUBS WILL KEEP VERTICAL CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT AT BAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH
SFC WINDS 5-9 KTS ALIGNING S OF WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP AFTERNOON CONVECTION
LIMITED...MAINLY ISOL ACROSS THE NC/GA/SC MTNS WITH NO TAF MENTION
NEEDED AT KAVL. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL MAINTAIN UPVALLEY WINDS
AT KAVL AND SW/LY TO W/LY ALL OTHER TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN DIURNAL INTO THE WORK
WEEK. AS A RESULT...THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA
WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN NC WHERE THE LEAST SUBSIDENCE WILL RESIDE.
MORNING RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG AND/OR STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE...
PARTICULARLY WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL THE PREVIOUS DAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
10-16Z 16-22Z 22-04Z 04-06Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL MED 78% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...WITH YEARS IN WHICH THE
VALUES WERE LAST REACHED.
MONDAY JUNE 22...
AVL 94 1964
CLT 98 1956
GSP 99 2006
TUESDAY JUNE 23...
AVL 93 1988
CLT 98 1988
GSP 99 1988
WEDNESDAY JUNE 24...
AVL 94 1952
CLT 102 1930
GSP 100 1952
THURSDAY JUNE 25...
AVL 96 1952
CLT 102 1914
GSP 101 1952
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...SBK
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...SBK
CLIMATE...GSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1048 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES ARE RISING QUICKLY AROUND THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING.
CURRENT READINGS RANGE FROM 82-87 DEGREES. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 90S THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THE HOT
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY...WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDICES AROUND 105
DEGREES FROM MEMPHIS SOUTHWESTWARD. IN ADDITION...CAN/T RULE OUT A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ADD 20 POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
KRM
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015/
EXCESSIVE HEAT IS THE MAIN PROBLEM OF CONCERN IN THIS FORECAST.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND HIGH DEW POINTS WERE HOLDING TEMPERATURES
UP INTO THE 70S THIS MORNING WITH LOCATIONS IN AND AROUND
MEMPHIS STRUGGLING TO DROP TO BELOW 80 DEGREES. SKIES WERE
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH RAIN FREE CONDITIONS.
THE HRRR IS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...THUS CONTINUED TO KEEP POPS BELOW
MENTIONABLE LEVELS ALTHOUGH COULD BE A STRAY SHOWER /
THUNDERSTORM. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH HOT AIR INTO
THE REGION WITH HIGHS A DEGREE OR SO HOTTER THAN YESTERDAY. WENT
AHEAD AND ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON FOR
SOUTHWEST TN INCLUDING THE CITY OF MEMPHIS...EAST CENTRAL AR...AND
NORTHWEST MS. IT LOOKS TO BE A BORDERLINE SITUATION THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HEAT INDEX READINGS NEAR OR JUST SHY OF THE 105 DEGREE
MARK...BUT PREFERRED TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND THUS
ISSUED THE ADVISORY. BIGGEST QUESTIONS ARE IF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL HAVE MUCH AFFECT ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES...AND HOW MUCH SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL MIX OUT THIS
AFTERNOON FROM DRIER AIR ALOFT. YESTERDAY...SURFACE DEW POINTS DID
NOT MIX OUT VERY MUCH. FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...LEANED TOWARD THE
NAM / MET GUIDANCE WHICH DID A GOOD JOB FORECASTING THE HIGHS
YESTERDAY. THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE SANDWICHED TODAY BETWEEN A STRONG
HOT UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED OFF
THE ATLANTIC COAST. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND
TONIGHT IN A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE TWO HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS
ESPECIALLY FROM EAST CENTRAL AR INTO NORTH MS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WILL EXPAND EASTWARD AND INCLUDE THE
MIDSOUTH. THIS WILL LEAD TO VERY HOT CONDITIONS EXPANDING OVER THE
MIDSOUTH WITH LITTLE IF ANY RAIN. H5 HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST BY THE
GFS TO INCREASE TO NEAR 597 DM TUESDAY. CONTINUED THE HEAT
ADVISORY MONDAY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST TN...EAST CENTRAL AR
AND NORTHWEST MS. THE HEAT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED IN
LATER FORECASTS TO INCLUDE MORE OF THE MIDSOUTH FOR MONDAY. IN
ADDITION...AS THE HEAT EXPANDS TUESDAY A HEAT ADVISORY MAY
BECOMING NECESSARY FOR MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH.
WEDNESDAY...THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK..THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH THE REGION MOVING INTO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH A DECREASE IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS UPSTREAM AS WE EVOLVE INTO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...BUT THIS IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME. THE
ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER ON THE POSSIBLE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT OVER
THE WEEKEND.
JCL
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. WINDS
WILL FAVOR SOUTHWESTERLY NEAR 10 KTS DURING THE DAY...DECREASING
TO AROUND 5 KTS AFTER 00Z MONDAY.
TVT
&&
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR CRITTENDEN-CROSS-LEE AR-
PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...NONE.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-PANOLA-
QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR SHELBY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
940 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.UPDATE...
LATEST SURFACE OBS SHOW A VERY WARM HUMID MORNING ACROSS THE MID
STATE WITH TEMPS ALREADY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE 70S. DESPITE SOME CLOUD COVER...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
MID 90S STILL APPEAR REASONABLE WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING
OVER 100 THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CONSIDERABLE
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ONGOING...AND WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND SOME LIFT DUE TO A SHORTWAVE PASSING TO OUR NORTH...CONCERNED
A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY DEVELOP OR SPREAD OUT OF KY LATER
TODAY INTO THE KY BORDER COUNTIES AND UPPER CUMBERLAND REGION.
SOME OF THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM RUNS IN FACT DO SHOW SOME
CONVECTION SPREADING ACROSS NORTHEAST ZONES OUT OF KY LATER
TODAY. THUS WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE POP TO FAR NORTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. REST OF FORECAST IS
GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT.
SHAMBURGER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015/
UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION.
AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THIS TAF PERIOD WITH SOME MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO START OUT. SOME MVFR IVS IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE AT KCSV FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SW GUSTS TO 15-17 KTS.
UNGER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015/
DISCUSSION...
WITH TODAY BEING THE FIRST DAY OF SUMMER...MIDDLE TENNESSEE SURE
KNOWS HOW TO START OUT WITH A BANG...HELLO HEAT! A WARM AND MUGGY
NIGHT CONTINUES ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS EARLY MORNING AS BLOW
OFF CIRRUS FROM A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
INVADES THE AREA. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL DO LITTLE TO LIMIT HIGHS
TODAY AS PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL EXIST. HIGHS
SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S AREA WIDE WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES CLOSING IN ON 100F DEGREES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
ONLY DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HEAT WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY AS
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND HEAT INDEX READINGS
SURPASS THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE
THE MOST BRUTAL CONDITIONS AS FAR AS HEAT IS CONCERNED...AND WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF A HEAT ADVISORY IS NEEDED FOR BOTH DAYS. FOR
NOW...WILL COVER THE HEAT WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
CONCERNING THIS TIME FRAME AS TODAY AND MONDAY WILL NOT QUITE HIT
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THE UPPER RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS HEAT WAVE WILL FINALLY BREAK
DOWN ALLOWING NORTHWEST FLOW TO INVADE THE AREA EVER SO SLIGHTLY.
AS A RESULT...THE PATTERN OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THIS TIME ENHANCING THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL OCCUR CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.
REGARDLESS...WITH THE EXTRA CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION
AROUND...HIGHS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS UNBEARABLE...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS IN THE LOW 90S. NOTICE I SAID QUITE AS UNBEARABLE SINCE
NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE TYPICALLY BETWEEN 85-87F.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 94 73 95 74 / 10 10 10 0
CLARKSVILLE 92 73 93 74 / 20 10 10 0
CROSSVILLE 88 70 88 71 / 20 20 10 10
COLUMBIA 94 73 95 74 / 10 10 10 10
LAWRENCEBURG 93 73 94 73 / 10 0 10 10
WAVERLY 93 74 94 74 / 10 0 10 0
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
55
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
614 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS...
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015/
DISCUSSION...
EXCESSIVE HEAT IS THE MAIN PROBLEM OF CONCERN IN THIS FORECAST.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND HIGH DEW POINTS WERE HOLDING TEMPERATURES
UP INTO THE 70S THIS MORNING WITH LOCATIONS IN AND AROUND
MEMPHIS STRUGGLING TO DROP TO BELOW 80 DEGREES. SKIES WERE
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH RAIN FREE CONDITIONS.
THE HRRR IS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...THUS CONTINUED TO KEEP POPS BELOW
MENTIONABLE LEVELS ALTHOUGH COULD BE A STRAY SHOWER /
THUNDERSTORM. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH HOT AIR INTO
THE REGION WITH HIGHS A DEGREE OR SO HOTTER THAN YESTERDAY. WENT
AHEAD AND ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON FOR
SOUTHWEST TN INCLUDING THE CITY OF MEMPHIS...EAST CENTRAL AR...AND
NORTHWEST MS. IT LOOKS TO BE A BORDERLINE SITUATION THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HEAT INDEX READINGS NEAR OR JUST SHY OF THE 105 DEGREE
MARK...BUT PREFERRED TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND THUS
ISSUED THE ADVISORY. BIGGEST QUESTIONS ARE IF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL HAVE MUCH AFFECT ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES...AND HOW MUCH SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL MIX OUT THIS
AFTERNOON FROM DRIER AIR ALOFT. YESTERDAY...SURFACE DEW POINTS DID
NOT MIX OUT VERY MUCH. FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...LEANED TOWARD THE
NAM / MET GUIDANCE WHICH DID A GOOD JOB FORECASTING THE HIGHS
YESTERDAY. THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE SANDWICHED TODAY BETWEEN A STRONG
HOT UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED OFF
THE ATLANTIC COAST. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND
TONIGHT IN A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE TWO HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS
ESPECIALLY FROM EAST CENTRAL AR INTO NORTH MS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WILL EXPAND EASTWARD AND INCLUDE THE
MIDSOUTH. THIS WILL LEAD TO VERY HOT CONDITIONS EXPANDING OVER THE
MIDSOUTH WITH LITTLE IF ANY RAIN. H5 HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST BY THE
GFS TO INCREASE TO NEAR 597 DM TUESDAY. CONTINUED THE HEAT
ADVISORY MONDAY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST TN...EAST CENTRAL AR
AND NORTHWEST MS. THE HEAT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED IN
LATER FORECASTS TO INCLUDE MORE OF THE MIDSOUTH FOR MONDAY. IN
ADDITION...AS THE HEAT EXPANDS TUESDAY A HEAT ADVISORY MAY
BECOMING NECESSARY FOR MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH.
WEDNESDAY...THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK..THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH THE REGION MOVING INTO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH A DECREASE IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS UPSTREAM AS WE EVOLVE INTO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...BUT THIS IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME. THE
ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER ON THE POSSIBLE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT OVER
THE WEEKEND.
JCL
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. WINDS
WILL FAVOR SOUTHWESTERLY NEAR 10 KTS DURING THE DAY...DECREASING
TO AROUND 5 KTS AFTER 00Z MONDAY.
TVT
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-LEE AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...NONE.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR
COAHOMA-DESOTO-PANOLA-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR
SHELBY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1020 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE
PAST FEW HOURS ALONG AND EAST OF THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS...WHICH IS
MOST EASILY SEEN ON THE 12Z 700 MB ANALYSIS AND IN WV IMAGERY.
BASED ON THIS MORNING DEVELOPMENT...WE HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
RECENT HRRR RUNS FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND QPF
TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WINTER GARDEN AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS
AREAS. THE FORECAST WAS JUST UPDATED FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS...
SLIGHTLY LOWER MAX TEMPS...AND TO RE-TREND HOURLY VARIABLES
THROUGH 00Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015/
AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 12Z TAF PACKAGE...
RADAR IS PRETTY QUIET AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME. EXPECTING DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON...MOSTLY IMPACTING THE
KDRT TERMINAL. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD REACH AS FAR NORTH AS
KAUS BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT THE MOMENT. HOWEVER...ISOLATED ACTIVITY
COULD DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON SO FELT VCTS WAS WARRANTED.
MVFR CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE SLOWLY TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
STRETCHES FROM NORTH TEXAS...SOUTHWEST INTO THE WESTERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU...AND CONTINUES DEEP INTO MEXICO. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE RAIN CHANCES TODAY. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST AREAS OF THE CWA.
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET UP THE ESCARPMENT IN THE TROPICAL
AIRMASS HAS LED TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT EARLY
THIS MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE ESCARPMENT EDGE. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE FAVORED LOCATIONS THROUGH SUNRISE. MODELS SHOW
SOME POTENTIAL FOR EXPANSION SOUTH AND EAST LATER THIS MORNING AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES...THEN POTENTIALLY CONSOLIDATING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST CWA...SOUTHWEST OF A KERRVILLE TO PLEASANTON LINE LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
FORCING FROM THE TROUGH AXIS. ENHANCEMENT IN THIS AREA POSSIBLE
FROM MID LEVEL VORTICITY ADVECTION PIVOTING NORTH INTO THE
AREA...AROUND MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SEEN OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL COAHULIA MEXICO ON SATELLITE AND ANALYZED BY MODELS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL POOLED AROUND 2.1 INCHES ACROSS
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST CWA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE MENTIONED
IN THE SOUTHWEST AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MODELS INSIST DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
EAST...ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...ALONG WITH MID LEVEL NVA. THE DRYING CONTINUES FURTHER
WEST INTO THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS IN RESPONSE TO
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF NUDGING WEST.
THIS WILL CONFINE POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY CLOSER TO THE RIO
GRANDE.
BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY AND MONDAY.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
BEEN IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AFTER DRYING ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS. THIS WILL LEAD TO
DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG
AND EAST OF I-35 BOTH DAYS. DRYING THEN TAKES PLACE AGAIN FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
TRYING TO EDGE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.
JUST BEYOND THE 7 DAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS SHOWN TO AMPLIFY
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...DEEPENING A TROUGH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND MIDWEST. THIS COULD PUSH A RARE LATE JUNE COLD FRONT
INTO NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE UPSTREAM
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT COULD WORK INTO NORTHERN
AREAS OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY AND/OR MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 86 74 91 73 90 / 40 20 10 0 -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 85 73 91 72 90 / 40 20 10 0 -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 86 74 91 73 90 / 50 20 10 - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 85 73 90 72 90 / 40 20 10 0 -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 86 74 90 74 90 / 50 40 30 20 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 85 73 91 73 90 / 40 20 10 0 -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 85 74 89 72 89 / 60 40 20 - 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 86 73 90 73 90 / 50 20 10 - 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 87 75 90 74 90 / 30 10 10 0 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 86 75 90 74 90 / 50 20 10 - 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 86 75 90 74 90 / 50 20 10 - 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
505 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON
TUESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HAVE SHOWERS ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. THERE HAS BEEN LIMITED LIGHTNING
WITH THE ACTIVITY AND IT HAS BEEN MAINLY IN CLOUD. THE HRRR SEEMS
TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE ACTIVITY. DESPITE INSTABILITY TO WORK
WITH LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER WEAK SO IT`S LIMITING STORM GROWTH.
OVERALL WIND FIELD WILL STRENGTHEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING
HOURS HOWEVER THE INSTABILITY WILL THEN BE ON THE DECREASE. THE
NEXT COUPLE/FEW HOURS ARE OUR BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE
REMOVED THE ENHANCED WORDING FROM THE FORECAST SINCE THERE IS ONLY
A VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORM REACHING SEVERE LEVELS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AS RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT BUILDS IN LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS RIDGING WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS WE REMAIN IN A FAST FLOW.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BE IN THE
APPROACH MONDAY AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. THE
SYSTEM WILL BE MORE POTENT AND WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER AS THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODEL HAVE TRENDED A BIT FASTER
WITH THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM...LOOKING AT A THREAT WINDOW FROM
LATE MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON. EXPECTING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AS
THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO BE PRESENT.
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WHERE THE GREATER
INSTABILITYAND STEEPER LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST. HAVE THREAT FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
IN ADDITION...PWATS WILL INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH COULD CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING OF URBAN...POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS.
IT WILL BECOME BREEZY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM`S COLD IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.
A RETURN TO FAIR WEATHER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH BRISK WINDS
SUBSIDING.
MONDAY WILL BE SEASONABLE WARM WHILE IT WILL GET VERY WARM/HOT ON
TUESDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MAINLY FROM THE
MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MID TO UPPER
80S IN THE VALLEY. DID NOT GO WITH THE WARMER MET NUMBERS...SEEMS
OVERDONE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FIRST 36 HOURS OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE DRY...BUT WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC...BRINGING
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. BUT TEMPERATURES WILL RUN COOLER THAN NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 80S...
AND HIGH FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IN ONLY THE 60S AND LOWER TO MID
70S. LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE IN LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY.
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO HIGH MVFR/VFR AT KALB SOUTH TO KPOU
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CIGS STILL REMAIN IN THE LOW MVFR RANGE
AT KPSF/KGFL /1.5-2.O KFT AGL/. WE EXPECT THE CIGS TO IMPROVE TO
VFR LEVELS BTWN 18Z-21Z AT ALL THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...SCT
SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE...AND A COLD FRONT FOR THE LATE PM/EARLY
EVENING. THE SHOWERS MAY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR
LEVELS...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL/KPSF/KPOU BTWN 22Z-01Z. CONFIDENCE WAS
NOT GREAT ENOUGH FOR THUNDER TO BE ADDED TO THE TAFS. VCSH GROUPS
WERE USED AT KALB THROUGHOUT...AND AT THE OTHER TAF SITES PRIOR TO
22Z.
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH BTWN 01Z/MON TO 04Z/MON ACROSS ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE CLOUDS MAY QUICKLY CLEAR...AND THE RESIDUAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH LIGHT WINDS COUPLED WITH THE WET GROUND
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MIST/FOG AND STRATUS TO FORM IN THE IFR/LOW
MVFR RANGE AT KGFL/KPSF BTWN 06Z-13Z. KPOU MAY HAVE ENOUGH OF A
WIND FOR ONLY SOME PATCHY MVFR MIST. KALB WINDS MAY CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT FOR NO MIST/FOG AND STRATUS.
ANY FOG OR STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY BTWN 12Z-14Z/MON WITH
VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING AT ALL THE TAF SITES.
THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NW/N AT 5-12 KTS IN THE WAKE OF THE
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH BILLS MOISTURE. THE WINDS WILL BACK TO SW TO
W AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND THEN VEER BACK TO W TO NW AT 5-10
KTS BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM ESPECIALLY AT KGFL...AND PERHAPS
KPOU SHORTLY AFTER 04Z. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE W TO NW AT
5-10 KTS LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
WED-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON
TUESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OCCURRED ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE HIGHEST TOTAL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WERE
ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WITH OCCUR WITH THE CONVECTION INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING. OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL COME TUESDAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THE AREA ON TUESDAY. PWATS WILL
INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF URBAN...POOR
DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1249 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
DENSE FOG HAS FORMED IN THE AREAS THAT THE MOST RAIN YESTERDAY
ALONG WITH WHERE THE ANVIL FROM THE CONVECTION HAD MOVED OUT OF
THE AREA. AS A RESULT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9AM
TODAY. OTHERWISE DECAYING CONVECTION TO THE WEST MAY MAKE IT INTO
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN. THE HRRR HAS
CONSISTENTLY FORECAST THIS. MY CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS OCCURRING
SO DECIDED TO LEAVE IT OUT. OTHERWISE NO UPDATES TO THE FORECAST
WERE MADE.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
A MCS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY EVENING HAD STALLED
OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. MOST OF THE RAIN WAS OVER ACROSS THE
AREA. 24 MPE SUGGESTS THAT THERE WERE 2 AREAS OF 1 TO 2 INCH
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. I80 WAS THE SEPARATION BETWEEN
THESE TWO AREAS. DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE THE NW ZONES
AS LIGHT WIND AN AMPLE MOISTURE WAS LEADING TO FOG DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST ARE THE CHANCES
FOR POPS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. OVERALL CHANCES APPEAR TO BE
LOW FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON WHATEVER BOUNDARY DECIDES TO
COALESCE AND MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT.
TODAY WILL BE A NICE DAY THAT WILL LEAD TO DRYING OUT ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM.
THE BOUNDARY...OR LACK THERE OF...IS THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM. A
PURELY MESOSCALE ISSUE PREDICTED BY SYNOPTIC MODELS USUALLY IS
A DIFFICULT FORECAST. LOOKING AT MSAS THERE APPEARS TO BE DRIER
AIR SINKING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH
OF US WILL LIKELY DIE OUT THIS MORNING LEAVING OFBS. THROUGH
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...THIS AREA SHOULD BE WHERE THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD EXIST. A LOW PRESSURE....MOVING OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA WILL
FORCE THIS BOUNDARY NORTH OVERNIGHT. WE WILL RESIDE WELL INTO THE
WARM SECTOR. HIRES MESO MODELS...SUGGEST LITTLE TO NO STORM
COVERAGE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WENT WITH SCATTERED POPS...BUT DO
BELIEVE IT MAY BE VERY ISOLATED OR NON-EXISTENT...JUST DO NOT HAVE
THE CONFIDENCE TO GO THAT WAY YET.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
SEASONABLY WARM WITH POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT RAINS MID WEEK AND THEN
TURNING COOLER.
LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR OR AVERAGE OVERALL
EXCEPT POOR WED/THU WITH WAVE AND TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF HEAVY
RAINS DUE TO POOR PHYSICS ISSUES OF ALL SOLUTIONS. CONCEPTUAL TRENDS
SUGGEST HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WOULD TEND TO BE FURTHER SOUTH THAN
MOST SOLUTIONS.
OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION GOOD WITH AGAIN DISPLACED
SOUTHWARD CONVECTION FROM SOLUTIONS NOTED THAT SUPPORTS THIS AS AN
ONGOING CONCERN FOR MID WEEK DUE TO BL MOISTURE IMBALANCES AS IS
COMMON. RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY SUPPORTS A 70/30 MIX OF GFS TO HI-RES
ECMWF ON FORCING AND THEN TRY AND APPLY ECMWF RAIN PACKAGE.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...VERY WARM...BREEZY AND HUMID WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY 85 TO 90 SUGGESTED WITH A CONCERN NORTH SECTIONS MAY BE
COOLER FROM MCS NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20 FOR LATER SHIFTS TO
MONITOR SINCE TENDENCY IS FOR GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS TO DISPLACE RAINS
TOO FAR NORTH. POPS IN NORTH MAY BE A BIT TOO LOW WITH POPS SOUTH OF
I-80 MAY BE TOO HIGH BASED ON JET AXIS AND 850 PARAMETERS.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO RESULT IN A FAIR
DAY AND MOSTLY DRY TO DRY AND LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO LOWER DEWPOINTS FURTHER IN NORTH
SECTIONS. TUESDAY NIGHT...REGION FAVORED TO EXPERIENCE LATE AN MCS
WITH HEAVIEST RAINS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34. POPS MAY NEED
RAISING WHEN TIMING ISSUES ARE BETTER RESOLVED WITH 1+ INCH AMOUNTS
SUGGESTED AND LOW TO MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE.
WEDNESDAY...LOTS OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WITH HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION TO BE ALONG AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-80. FORCING AND
MOISTURE PROFILES FAVOR WIDESPREAD .5 TO 1.5+ AMOUNTS WITH LOCALLY 2
TO 3 INCHES THAT COMBINED WITH TUESDAY NIGHT EVENT COULD RESULT IN
RENEWED HYDRO ISSUES. SEVERE RISK APPEARS WILL BE ALONG AND MAYBE
SOUTH OF IA/MO BORDER. HIGH TEMPERATURES BASED ON THIS PATTERN MAY
NEED LOWERING BY LATER SHIFTS BY UP TO 5 DEGREES. LOWS ALSO WITH
EVAPORATIVE COOLING MAY NEED LOWERING.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BECOMING COOLER AND LESS HUMID AND
MOSTLY DRY TO DRY AS NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS. HIGHS MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S AND MINS UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH MODERATE
HUMIDITY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
RATHER DIFFUSE SURFACE PATTERN WITH WEAK RIDGING AND WINDS LINGERING
THIS AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY NORTH OF I-70 AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
LIKELY TO MAINTAIN FOCUS FOR STORMS JUST SOUTH OF BRL FROM
NORTHERN KS THROUGH NORTHERN MO INTO EARLY EVENING. THE BOUNDARY
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
COVERAGE LOOKS TO REMAIN GENERALLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LATER
TONIGHT MAKING FOR LOWER CONFIDENCE ON IMPACT AT TERMINALS AND THE
REASON FOR LEAVING OUT ANY MENTION WITH 18Z TAFS. ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF RETREATING FRONT MAY LEAD TO SOME FOG AND
POSSIBLY LOW CLOUDS WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MID MORNING MONDAY. COULD THEN SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS
MONDAY MORNING NORTH AND POSSIBLY WEST OF I-80 WITH WEAKENING
COMPLEX... AND HAVE INTRODUCED PROB30 GROUPS AT CID AND DBQ.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
323 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
THIS MORNINGS UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUING
TO STRETCH FROM A HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EASTWARD
ALONG THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THE
STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BE LOCATED ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CONUS. TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN THE WESTERLY FLOW
WERE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA
AS WELL AS OVER THE WEST COAST OF OREGON AND FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS, AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT WAS DRIVEN SOUTH
INTO WESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING WAS LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE RETURNING TO ALL THE OBSERVATION
SITES IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS.
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS, THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL
SLOWLY PROPAGATE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE DISTURBANCES
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ARE PROGGED TO COME INTO PHASE AND TRACK
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
EVENING. EXPECTING ANOTHER QUIET PERIOD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS DO NOT GENERATE ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH THE RAP AND ESPECIALLY THE HRRR DEVELOP
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 IN CENTRAL KANSAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A NICE CAPPING INVERSION
AROUND 700 MILLIBARS WHICH SHOULD EFFECTIVELY KEEP A LID ON ANY
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WHILE I COULDN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM SIMILAR TO SATURDAY EVENING, WILL LEAVE THE
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 10-20
MPH OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD HOLD OVERNIGHT LOWS UP A FEW MORE
DEGREES THAN LAST NIGHT.
ON MONDAY, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
BY MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS COULD HOLD TEMPERATURES BACK A FEW
DEGREES AND HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES FROM HAYS THROUGH SYRACUSE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS,
WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS BACK UP TO AROUND 100 DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MIDWEEK
WILL SHIFT WESTWARD INTO THE ROCKIES BY THURSDAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHILE GRADUALLY AMPLIFYING. THIS WILL GENERALLY BE A HOT
PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY OR FRIDAY, WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR A FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS AND
NEAR INTERSTATE 70. GIVEN THE WEAK WINDS AT UPPER LEVELS, THESE
STORMS WILL PROBABLY NOT BE SEVERE, WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUST AND SMALL HAIL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. TEMPERATURES COULD BE SLIGHT COOLER
ALONG INTERSTATE 70 DEPENDING ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND ANY POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS PRODUCING COOL
OUTFLOW. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RETROGRADES BACK OVER THE WEST
AND AMPLIFIES BY THE WEEKEND, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK
INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S STARTING SATURDAY, ALONG WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NEBRASKA AND FAR NORTHERN KANSAS WILL BE SITUATED IN THE HAYS AND
GARDEN CITY AREAS THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
WASHING OUT AND LIFTING BACK NORTH. WINDS AT THESE LOCATIONS WILL
BE VARIABLE AT AROUND 10 KNOTS OR SO THIS AFTERNOON WITH ALL
LOCATIONS BECOMING SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS SUSTAINED BY 00Z.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 72 100 70 97 / 0 10 10 0
GCK 71 99 69 98 / 0 10 20 0
EHA 70 101 70 97 / 0 10 20 0
LBL 70 101 70 97 / 0 10 10 0
HYS 73 97 70 93 / 0 10 20 10
P28 74 99 72 96 / 0 10 10 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...GERARD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
232 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
THIS MORNINGS UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUING
TO STRETCH FROM A HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EASTWARD
ALONG THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THE
STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BE LOCATED ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CONUS. TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN THE WESTERLY FLOW
WERE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA
AS WELL AS OVER THE WEST COAST OF OREGON AND FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS, AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT WAS DRIVEN SOUTH
INTO WESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING WAS LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE RETURNING TO ALL THE OBSERVATION
SITES IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS.
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS, THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL
SLOWLY PROPAGATE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE DISTURBANCES
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ARE PROGGED TO COME INTO PHASE AND TRACK
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
EVENING. EXPECTING ANOTHER QUIET PERIOD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS DO NOT GENERATE ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH THE RAP AND ESPECIALLY THE HRRR DEVELOP
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 IN CENTRAL KANSAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A NICE CAPPING INVERSION
AROUND 700 MILLIBARS WHICH SHOULD EFFECTIVELY KEEP A LID ON ANY
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WHILE I COULDN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM SIMILAR TO SATURDAY EVENING, WILL LEAVE THE
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 10-20
MPH OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD HOLD OVERNIGHT LOWS UP A FEW MORE
DEGREES THAN LAST NIGHT.
ON MONDAY, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
BY MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS COULD HOLD TEMPERATURES BACK A FEW
DEGREES AND HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES FROM HAYS THROUGH SYRACUSE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS,
WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS BACK UP TO AROUND 100 DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
THE OVERALL SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE INFLUENCED MAINLY BY THE WARM
AIRMASS AND FLAT HOT UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION. 700 MB
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM AROUND +14 TO IN EXCESS OF +17 DEGREES
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. A LEE SURFACE IS MODELED BY THE GFS/ECMWF
ON TUESDAY EVENING, WITH SOME POSSIBILITY OF WEAK FORCED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE CONVERGENCE ZONE AREA, AND POSSIBLY
EXTENDING NORTHWARD ALONG A WARM FRONT MOST LIKELY NORTH OF
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS. HOWEVER, ANY DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
FIGHTING A STRONG CAP, AND ADDITIONALLY WITH WEAK FLOW SEVERE
WEATHER DOESN`T APPEAR PROBABLE. BETTER CHANCES ARE FORECAST BY
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME AS HIGH TERRAIN STORMS MAY
BEGIN TO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE TO BE DRIVEN EASTWARD INTO THE
PLAINS WITH COMPACT SHORTWAVES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING
UPPER HIGH.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEK, HOWEVER THE MODELS AND MOS BEGIN TO INDICATE SOME
RELIEF BY THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGING SHIFTS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST US.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NEBRASKA AND FAR NORTHERN KANSAS WILL BE SITUATED IN THE HAYS AND
GARDEN CITY AREAS THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
WASHING OUT AND LIFTING BACK NORTH. WINDS AT THESE LOCATIONS WILL
BE VARIABLE AT AROUND 10 KNOTS OR SO THIS AFTERNOON WITH ALL
LOCATIONS BECOMING SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS SUSTAINED BY 00Z.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 72 100 70 96 / 0 10 10 0
GCK 71 99 69 97 / 0 10 20 0
EHA 70 101 70 97 / 0 10 20 0
LBL 70 101 70 95 / 0 10 10 0
HYS 73 97 70 93 / 0 10 20 10
P28 74 99 72 96 / 0 10 10 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...GERARD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1145 AM MDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 810 AM MDT SUN JUN 21 2015
JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE. THIS WAS DONE MAINLY TO ADD
THUNDERSTORMS TO THIS MORNING FOR THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE
AREA DUE TO THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. THIS COMPLEX HAS THROWN OUT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND HAS
CAUSED ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP. THE RUC HAS CAUGHT THIS
GENERAL SCENARIO WELL WHICH KEEPS NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
SO IN ADDITION TO THE PRECIPITATION INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
CHANGED THE WIND FIELD. DID LOWER THE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER AFTER THIS COMPLEX GOES
PASSED...RUC DOES WANT TO SHIFT THE WINDS BACK TO A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION AND STILL BRING IN HOT TEMPERATURES. NOT SURE ABOUT THAT
AND WILL WAIT/WATCH TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS THIS MORNING BEFORE MAKING
FURTHER IF ANY ADJUSTMENTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT SUN JUN 21 2015
TODAY-TONIGHT...FORECAST CONCERN IS THE HEAT. STATIONARY FRONT
CURRENTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH MUCH
OF THE AREA UNDER EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS. NAM/RUC BOUNDARY LAYER RH
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ALONG/NORTH OF THE FRONT RESULTING IN AREAS
OF FOG THROUGH MID MORNING. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS FRONT SLOWLY
LIFTS NORTH WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS BEHIND IT. A GENERALLY
SUNNY SKY EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S TO
AROUND 100 ALONG/NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE WITH UPPER 90S TO AROUND
103 SOUTH. LUCKILY NOT EXPECTING FULL MIXING AT 850MB WHICH BASED ON
THE PAST 5 DAYS WOULD SUPPORT READINGS ABOUT 4F HIGHER AND PRODUCE
SOME NEAR RECORD HIGHS. FOR TONIGHT WARM FRONT CONTINUES NORTH WITH
BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTH WINDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE VEERING TO THE
SOUTHWEST LATE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH MID 60S TO MID 70S
EAST OF THE STATE LINE.
HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100 DEGREES IN THE HILL CITY AND
GOVE AREAS...BELOW 105 THRESHOLD FOR HEAT ADVISORY.
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...BROAD 594-596DM HIGH PRESSURE CENTER EXTENDS
FROM SOUTHERN KANSAS TO ARIZONA DURING THE DAY SLOWLY LIFTING
NORTHWARD DURING THE NIGHT. NAM/GFS/SREF/ECMWF ALL SHOWING AN AREA
OF INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA
DURING THE NIGHT...EXITING THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE AREA AROUND
12Z TUESDAY MORNING. NOSE OF MODEST LOW LEVEL JET FEEDING INTO THIS
FEATURE AND ELEVATED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH DURING THE DAY BRINGING SOME NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 25 MPH
OR SO IN THE MORNING WITH A SLOW DECREASE AND VEER TO THE NORTHEAST
THEN EAST-NORTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S FROM
FLAGLER TO GOODLAND TO MCCOOK AND POINTS WEST WITH MID 90S TO
AROUND 102 ELSEWHERE...HOTTEST FROM HILL CITY TO TRIBUNE WHERE
HEAT BUILDS BEFORE THE FRONTS ARRIVAL. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S...UPPER 60S CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM HILL
CITY TO GOVE TO TRIBUNE.
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...MAY HAVE A FEW LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE MORNING FROM TRENTON/MCCOOK EAST THROUGH NORTON BEFORE EXITING
THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST BEFORE 18Z. FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG ITS LEADING EDGE WHERE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...BETTER MOISTURE AND LIMITED CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION EXIST. DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS ANY
PRECIP THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD LIFT NORTH AND LIKELY OUT OF THE
AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER WITH UPPER
90S TO AROUND 100 FOR PARTS OF GOVE...GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES.
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S WEST TO AROUND 70 EAST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT SUN JUN 21 2015
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL JET FLOW WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE TRI
STATE AREA WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PARKED OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CONUS. WITH A
LACK OF JET LEVEL FORCING...THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACTUALLY WILL
RETROGRADE TO THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE UPPER FLOW
PATTERN FRIDAY WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE CONUS.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS WEAK FORCING AT THE UPPER LEVELS...WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE TRI
STATE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOME PARTS OF
THE AREA. THE CAP VIA GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS DOES NOT LOOK AS
IMPRESSIVE COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...SO MID LEVEL FORCING MAY HELP
INITIATE STORMS DESPITE LACK OF STRONG JET PRESENCE. GFS/ECMWF
MODELS HAVE A SURFACE BOUNDARY POSITIONED AROUND THE TRI STATE AREA
FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S...SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEFINITELY BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 WHERE THE BOUNDARY SETS UP. THE
LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON WHERE
EXACTLY THE SURFACE AND 850 MB BOUNDARY IS POSITIONED.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AS MOISTURE IS STREAMED INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST IN
COMBINATION WITH A WEAK SURFACE COOL FRONT THAT PUSHES INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AFFECTED VERY LITTLE WITH
DROPS OF ABOUT 5 DEGREES FROM THE LOWER 90S TO THE MID 80S.
DISAGREEMENT IN MODEL PRECIPITATION OCCURS ON SATURDAY...WITH MOST
MODELS STAYING DRY WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE GFS MODEL IS
THE ONLY FORECAST THAT IS AGGRESSIVELY BRINGING WIDESPREAD HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE GFS
SOLUTION SEEMED TO HEAVILY AFFECT CONSENSUS FORECASTS DESPITE OTHER
FORECASTS REMAINING DRY. LOWERED POPS A BIT...ESPECIALLY FOR
SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA TO REMAIN WITHIN COLLABORATIVE
THRESHOLDS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM MDT SUN JUN 21 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS THE AFFECTS OF
THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION ARE LESSENED AND AS A FRONT TO OUR SOUTH
MOVES NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASE AT BOTH SITES. THE WINDS
WILL BE QUITE STRONG AND GUSTY DURING THE EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 16 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEARING 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL
09Z TO 11Z WHEN THEY DECREASE AND BECOME MORE WESTERLY. A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH NEAR 14Z WITH A SHIFT TO THE NORTH AS
WINDS GUST TO NEAR 25 KNOTS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
554 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2015
...Mesoscale Forecast Update...
Issued at 554 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2015
After discussing with SPC and JKL, have dropped several counties
from the northeast edge of the watch, since all the action is
concentrated across west central and southern Kentucky and drifting
southward. Considered dropping Hardin and LaRue counties as well,
but decided to see what the storms around Leitchfield do first.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Updated at 244 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2015
...Strong to Severe Storms Possible Late This Afternoon into This
Evening...
The synoptic pattern early this afternoon features an expansive
ridge building in across the southern CONUS, whose reach extends up
into portions of southern KY. Further north, an active northern
stream continues to send generally subtle PV anomalies through the
flow, each of which continue to set off clusters of convection.
The forecast for late this afternoon into this evening remains a
rather difficult one, as there are many subtle features to contend
with. Have fairly high confidence that any thunderstorm activity
late this afternoon will be focused across central and southern KY.
KLVX showed a nice boundary push through earlier this afternoon, and
SPC mesoanalysis shows strong moisture convergence along it. The
latest satellite loop confirms this, as a line of cumulus has now
formed along the boundary. Along and south of this boundary is
where the best coverage of storms will be this afternoon.
Forecast soundings still suggest there will be a cap to contend with
across central/southern KY which may help limit updraft intensity to
some extent. However, MLCAPEs in this area have risen to 3000-4000
J/kg according to the latest mesoanalysis data (though this may be a
bit overdone). This strong instability coupled with 20 to 30 knots
of effective shear may lead to some loose storm organization. The
high DCAPE environment suggest localized damaging wind gusts will be
the main threat, although some quarter-sized hail will be possible
as well given the strong instability in place.
That activity should sag south by early this evening, as attention
then shifts to the current convection ongoing over MO. The CAMs are
really struggling with what will happen with this activity through
the rest of the afternoon into this evening, as some want to keep it
mainly elevated and fade it this evening, while others develop it
into a severe linear MCS and plow it southeast into our region
tonight around/after 00Z. The area downstream of this activity over
IL has been slow to destabilize given a thick cirrus shield in place
through much of the day, but that cirrus has now mostly dissipated.
Dprog/dt of the typically reliable HRRR shows a very inconsistent
solution, so confidence is low. Will go with a rather conservative
approach to pops and keep them around 40 percent for the potential
of this activity getting in here later tonight. If it does develop
a cold pool and begin to bow out, then it could bring some severe
wind gusts into portions of southern IN and KY later this evening,
mainly west of I-65. Once this moves through, the rest of the
overnight period will be mainly dry as upper-level ridging builds
overhead.
The ridge will really take hold Monday into Monday night, bringing
mostly dry and hot conditions. Can`t completely rule out a stray
storm Monday afternoon, but forcing mechanisms are lacking and the
mid-level cap will be strong. Therefore, will go with a dry
forecast. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s, with heat indices in
excess of 100 degrees at times. Overnight lows on Monday will be
quite muggy out ahead of another system slated to push through on
Tuesday, with readings only dropping into the mid and upper 70s.
.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 220 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2015
Models have not changed much in their overall pattern, with a ridge
near but centered just southwest of the region early on and then
transition to a more dominant western ridge by the end of the work
week, with troughing over us. That should mean hot days at first
and a little cooler by the end of the work week, but with rain
chances pretty much every day.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 113 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2015
Generally VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period,
although restrictions may prevail in thunderstorms this afternoon
and evening. The latest satellite and environment trends support
the idea that storms will initiate mainly south of KLEX and KSDF,
with little coverage expected around KSDF and KLEX. Therefore, have
removed VCTS mention at those sites, but added it into KBWG where
coverage is expected to be a bit better. Winds outside of storms
will be out of the WSW with gusts of 15-20 knots at times.
Confidence decreases a bit tonight, as convection across MO may
congeal and make a run at all sites overnight. However, it has
really struggled so far this morning and only a few guidance members
have it getting into the terminals later tonight, so will leave out
for now. Could be some light fog at KBWG and/or KLEX, but there
once again may be some mid/upper level clouds from convection to
limit any BR development, so will leave out for now.
Despite the overnight early morning thunderstorm chances, tomorrow
should be mainly dry as upper-level ridging builds in. VFR
conditions are expected with winds out of the WSW at 10-15 knots
with gusts to 20 knots.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Mesoscale......13
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......KJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
318 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A LINE OF CONVECTION
DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE I64 CORRIDOR AND THE MOUNTAIN
PARKAY. BASED ON SFC TEMPS WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE SHOWERS AND
STORM FIRING OVER THE NEXT HOUR...AT MOST TWO. CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO INITIATE ALONG AN OLD OUTFLOW THAT HAS DROPPED INTO
THE AREA FROM LAST NIGHTS MCS ACTIVITY. BEST GUESS AT THE LOCATION
OF THAT BOUNDARY WOULD BE ROUGHLY FROM JUST SOUTH OF SDF TO DVK
AND THEN BACK NORTHEAST...POSSIBLY JUST SOUTH OF SYM. MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE FOR LATEST THOUGHTS ALONG WITH
GRID UPDATES TOWARDS LATEST HOURLY OBSERVATIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1111 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
UPDATE MAINLY TO REMOVE MORNING FOG FROM THE FORECAST PACKAGE.
GRIDS...AND THE REST OF THE FORECAST WERE IN GOOD SHAPE. SEEING
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING OUT THERE THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE DEBRIS
FROM UPSTREAM MCS IS PASSING ACROSS THE AREA BUT THUS FAR AND FOR
A LARGE PART THIS HAS BEEN DISSIPATING...ALLOWING OUR AIR MASS TO
BEGIN THE PROCESS OF DESTABILIZATION. BEST SHEAR AND SFC BASED
INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. SEVERAL OF
OUR HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE GENERATING SIMILAR SOLUTIONS...
DEVELOPING A LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64
BY 19-21Z BEFORE BRINGING THE LINE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO
SHOW A WEAK CAP IN PLACE UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT REALLY
SEEING THIS FEATURE IN THE MORNINGS 12Z SOUNDINGS. THIS
CONVECTION APPEARS TO INITIATE ALONG A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
THAT MAY BE SETTLING OVER OUR AREA THIS MORNING...LIKELY LEFT OVER
FROM LAST NIGHTS UPSTREAM MCS ACTIVITY. IN GENERAL CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CONVECTION PROBABLY
INITIATING BY OR AFTER 3 PM...BUT BEFORE 5 PM. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 647 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DISSIPATED BEFORE IT WAS ABLE TO MOVE INTO
OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES SO WILL REMOVE ANY MENTION OF RAIN UNTIL
LATER THIS MORNING. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
TODAY/S FORECAST IS A BIT MORE COMPLICATED THAN I WOULD LIKE DUE
TO UPSTREAM MCS AND THE EFFECT IT/S DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL HAVE ON
POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY ACROSS OUR AREA.
BASED ON RAW EXTRAPOLATION...THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY OVER INDIANA WILL BE ENTERING OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES BY
AROUND DAWN. I EXPECT THIS LINE TO WEAKEN BUT A SMALL POP WILL BE
INCLUDED UP NORTH EARLY ON TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY.
CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
MORNING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT DESTABILIZATION
EARLY ON IN THE DAY DRAWING INTO QUESTION THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS SHOWN TO TAKE PLACE SO QUICKLY IN THE
21/00Z NAM OVER INDIANA AND OHIO. RECENT HRRR AND 21/00Z HIRES NMM
SEEM MORE REASONABLE IN HOLDING OFF ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. IT IS AT THIS TIME THAT
AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY...AND THEY COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG AS THEY HAVE A RICH
FUEL SOURCE OF LOW 70 DEGREE SURFACE DEW POINTS TO TAP INTO. SPC
CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK
AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN OUR LOCAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST
AND WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING. LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES MAY THEN BE
THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THESE SHOULD REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE ANOTHER CONCERN DURING THE SHORT TERM.
CLOUD COVER EARLY IN THE DAY TODAY SHOULD SLOW OUR RISE A
BIT...BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPS TO REACH AROUND 90 BY AFTERNOON AND
THEN AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH DEW POINTS PROGGED TO RISE INTO
THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY...THE HEAT...HUMIDITY...AND CHANCES FOR
PRECIP ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. WE WILL
START OFF WITH A BROAD AREA OF RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CONUS...CONTINUING TO REACH ITS WAY EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...A STRONG SHORTWAVE
WILL PASS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE GREAT LAKES REGION...CREATING AN AREA
OF PACKED ISOBARS AND STRONG WINDS JUST NORTH OF KENTUCKY. THE WNW
FLOW THAT THIS CREATES WILL ALLOW SEVERAL SMALLER SHORTWAVES TO
TRAVERSE THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK...BRINGING OFF AND ON CHANCES
OF PRECIP AND POSSIBILITIES FOR LARGER MCS DEVELOPMENT.
BY THURSDAY...THE SHORTWAVE THAT MOVED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL BECOME WRAPPED UP IN A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CANADIAN COAST. THIS WILL DEEPEN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...AND PUSH THE RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH BACK
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND EVENTUALLY THE FOUR
CORNER STATES BY THURSDAY NIGHT. KINKS IN THIS NW FLOW /SMALL
SHORTWAVES/ WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SE TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
AS THIS OCCURS...STRENGTHENING AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AND THE
LONG TERM MODELS TRY TO PRODUCE ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH
WILL LEAD TO A DIGGING TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. WHILE
THE EXACT TIMING OF THESE FEATURES IS STILL A BIT OFF THIS FAR OUT
IN THE FORECAST...THE OVERALL PATTERN IS QUITE SIMILAR.
AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL SET UP BELOW THE CLOSED LOW
MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. FROM THIS LOW A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND WESTWARD...BECOMING CAUGHT AND
ELONGATED IN THE WSW FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO FLUCTUATE...SHIFTING NORTH AS THE NW FLOW
DEEPENS...AND THEN BACK SOUTHWARD AGAIN AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
BEGINS TO DIG FARTHER SOUTH. THE COMBINATION OF THIS BOUNDARY AND
PASSING SHORTWAVES WILL CREATING THE RESULTING PRECIP CHANCES
THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST TUESDAY WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW STILL IN PLACE JUST AHEAD OF THE DROPPING COLD
FRONT...THEN ARE EXPECTED TO FALL SLIGHTLY AS THE FRONT SHEARS OUT
AND SHIFTS BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE REGION. IF THE EXTENDED MODELS
HOLD TRUE...THE DIGGING TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL RESULT IN A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING JUST NORTH OF THE REGION...AND BRINGING OUR
BEST WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR PRECIP.
GIVEN THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN ADDITION TO THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF THE BOUNDARY...EXPECT ANY PRECIP THAT DEVELOPS TO HAVE
SOME THUNDER COMPONENT TO IT AND BE MOST PROMINENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
THERE APPEARS TO BE A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT HAS SETTLED
OVER THE COMMONWEALTH...LOCATED APPROXIMATELY FROM JUST SOUTH OF
SDF TO DVK AND THEN BACK NORTHEAST...POSSIBLY JUST SOUTH OF SYM.
BASED ON HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE UP
IN THE VCNTY OF THIS SFC BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON ONCE WE HIT
CONVECTIVE TEMPS...MID TO UPPER 80S OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
HAVE MAINTAINED A MENTION OF THUNDERSTROMS IN THE TAFS AND WILL
ADJUST ONCE WE HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON TIMING. ALSO EXPECTING SOME
GUSTY WINDS IN AND AROUND ANY THUNDERTSORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE
TONIGHT FOR MORE FOG THROUGH THE OEVRNIGHT. WEST...SOUTHWEST SFC
WINDS AT AROUND 5-8 KTS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON, BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. THEN INCREASE BACK UP AROUND 5KT
MONDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...RAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
243 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2015
.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Updated at 244 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2015
...Strong to Severe Storms Possible Late This Afternoon into This
Evening...
The synoptic pattern early this afternoon features an expansive
ridge building in across the southern CONUS, whose reach extends up
into portions of southern KY. Further north, an active northern
stream continues to send generally subtle PV anomalies through the
flow, each of which continue to set off clusters of convection.
The forecast for late this afternoon into this evening remains a
rather difficult one, as there are many subtle features to contend
with. Have fairly high confidence that any thunderstorm activity
late this afternoon will be focused across central and southern KY.
KLVX showed a nice boundary push through earlier this afternoon, and
SPC mesoanalysis shows strong moisture convergence along it. The
latest satellite loop confirms this, as a line of cumulus has now
formed along the boundary. Along and south of this boundary is
where the best coverage of storms will be this afternoon.
Forecast soundings still suggest there will be a cap to contend with
across central/southern KY which may help limit updraft intensity to
some extent. However, MLCAPEs in this area have risen to 3000-4000
J/kg according to the latest mesoanalysis data (though this may be a
bit overdone). This strong instability coupled with 20 to 30 knots
of effective shear may lead to some loose storm organization. The
high DCAPE environment suggest localized damaging wind gusts will be
the main threat, although some quarter-sized hail will be possible
as well given the strong instability in place.
That activity should sag south by early this evening, as attention
then shifts to the current convection ongoing over MO. The CAMs are
really struggling with what will happen with this activity through
the rest of the afternoon into this evening, as some want to keep it
mainly elevated and fade it this evening, while others develop it
into a severe linear MCS and plow it southeast into our region
tonight around/after 00Z. The area downstream of this activity over
IL has been slow to destabilize given a thick cirrus shield in place
through much of the day, but that cirrus has now mostly dissipated.
Dprog/dt of the typically reliable HRRR shows a very inconsistent
solution, so confidence is low. Will go with a rather conservative
approach to pops and keep them around 40 percent for the potential
of this activity getting in here later tonight. If it does develop
a cold pool and begin to bow out, then it could bring some severe
wind gusts into portions of southern IN and KY later this evening,
mainly west of I-65. Once this moves through, the rest of the
overnight period will be mainly dry as upper-level ridging builds
overhead.
The ridge will really take hold Monday into Monday night, bringing
mostly dry and hot conditions. Can`t completely rule out a stray
storm Monday afternoon, but forcing mechanisms are lacking and the
mid-level cap will be strong. Therefore, will go with a dry
forecast. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s, with heat indices in
excess of 100 degrees at times. Overnight lows on Monday will be
quite muggy out ahead of another system slated to push through on
Tuesday, with readings only dropping into the mid and upper 70s.
.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 220 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2015
Models have not changed much in their overall pattern, with a ridge
near but centered just southwest of the region early on and then
transition to a more dominant western ridge by the end of the work
week, with troughing over us. That should mean hot days at first
and a little cooler by the end of the work week, but with rain
chances pretty much every day.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 113 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2015
Generally VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period,
although restrictions may prevail in thunderstorms this afternoon
and evening. The latest satellite and environment trends support
the idea that storms will initiate mainly south of KLEX and KSDF,
with little coverage expected around KSDF and KLEX. Therefore, have
removed VCTS mention at those sites, but added it into KBWG where
coverage is expected to be a bit better. Winds outside of storms
will be out of the WSW with gusts of 15-20 knots at times.
Confidence decreases a bit tonight, as convection across MO may
congeal and make a run at all sites overnight. However, it has
really struggled so far this morning and only a few guidance members
have it getting into the terminals later tonight, so will leave out
for now. Could be some light fog at KBWG and/or KLEX, but there
once again may be some mid/upper level clouds from convection to
limit any BR development, so will leave out for now.
Despite the overnight early morning thunderstorm chances, tomorrow
should be mainly dry as upper-level ridging builds in. VFR
conditions are expected with winds out of the WSW at 10-15 knots
with gusts to 20 knots.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........RJS
Aviation..........KJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
215 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A LINE OF CONVECTION
DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE I64 CORRIDOR AND THE MOUNTAIN
PARKAY. BASED ON SFC TEMPS WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE SHOWERS AND
STORM FIRING OVER THE NEXT HOUR...AT MOST TWO. CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO INITIATE ALONG AN OLD OUTFLOW THAT HAS DROPPED INTO
THE AREA FROM LAST NIGHTS MCS ACTIVITY. BEST GUESS AT THE LOCATION
OF THAT BOUNDARY WOULD BE ROUGHLY FROM JUST SOUTH OF SDF TO DVK
AND THEN BACK NORTHEAST...POSSIBLY JUST SOUTH OF SYM. MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE FOR LATEST THOUGHTS ALONG WITH
GRID UPDATES TOWARDS LATEST HOURLY OBSERVATIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1111 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
UPDATE MAINLY TO REMOVE MORNING FOG FROM THE FORECAST PACKAGE.
GRIDS...AND THE REST OF THE FORECAST WERE IN GOOD SHAPE. SEEING
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING OUT THERE THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE DEBRIS
FROM UPSTREAM MCS IS PASSING ACROSS THE AREA BUT THUS FAR AND FOR
A LARGE PART THIS HAS BEEN DISSIPATING...ALLOWING OUR AIR MASS TO
BEGIN THE PROCESS OF DESTABILIZATION. BEST SHEAR AND SFC BASED
INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. SEVERAL OF
OUR HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE GENERATING SIMILAR SOLUTIONS...
DEVELOPING A LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64
BY 19-21Z BEFORE BRINGING THE LINE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO
SHOW A WEAK CAP IN PLACE UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT REALLY
SEEING THIS FEATURE IN THE MORNINGS 12Z SOUNDINGS. THIS
CONVECTION APPEARS TO INITIATE ALONG A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
THAT MAY BE SETTLING OVER OUR AREA THIS MORNING...LIKELY LEFT OVER
FROM LAST NIGHTS UPSTREAM MCS ACTIVITY. IN GENERAL CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CONVECTION PROBABLY
INITIATING BY OR AFTER 3 PM...BUT BEFORE 5 PM. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 647 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DISSIPATED BEFORE IT WAS ABLE TO MOVE INTO
OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES SO WILL REMOVE ANY MENTION OF RAIN UNTIL
LATER THIS MORNING. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
TODAY/S FORECAST IS A BIT MORE COMPLICATED THAN I WOULD LIKE DUE
TO UPSTREAM MCS AND THE EFFECT IT/S DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL HAVE ON
POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY ACROSS OUR AREA.
BASED ON RAW EXTRAPOLATION...THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY OVER INDIANA WILL BE ENTERING OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES BY
AROUND DAWN. I EXPECT THIS LINE TO WEAKEN BUT A SMALL POP WILL BE
INCLUDED UP NORTH EARLY ON TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY.
CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
MORNING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT DESTABILIZATION
EARLY ON IN THE DAY DRAWING INTO QUESTION THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS SHOWN TO TAKE PLACE SO QUICKLY IN THE
21/00Z NAM OVER INDIANA AND OHIO. RECENT HRRR AND 21/00Z HIRES NMM
SEEM MORE REASONABLE IN HOLDING OFF ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. IT IS AT THIS TIME THAT
AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY...AND THEY COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG AS THEY HAVE A RICH
FUEL SOURCE OF LOW 70 DEGREE SURFACE DEW POINTS TO TAP INTO. SPC
CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK
AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN OUR LOCAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST
AND WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING. LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES MAY THEN BE
THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THESE SHOULD REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE ANOTHER CONCERN DURING THE SHORT TERM.
CLOUD COVER EARLY IN THE DAY TODAY SHOULD SLOW OUR RISE A
BIT...BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPS TO REACH AROUND 90 BY AFTERNOON AND
THEN AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH DEW POINTS PROGGED TO RISE INTO
THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START OUT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS RIDGE WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND GET DIRECTED TOWARD THE EAST...AS TRAVERSING
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY PROVIDES GLANCING BLOWS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TOWARDS THE MIDDLE AND ESPECIALLY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK...THE RIDGE WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING FOR MORE TROUGHING TO RESIDE ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO PLENTY OF HEAT
AND HUMIDITY EARLY ON...ALONG WITH THE DAILY THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS...MOST LIKELY PEAKING WITHIN THE NORMAL DIURNAL
REGIME...ALTHOUGH AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...LARGER THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX ACTIVITY WILL ALSO PLAY A ROLE. HIGHS WILL PEAK IN THE LOW
90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE TAKING A BIT OF A
HIT AS A SHEARED OUT COLD FRONT ATTEMPTS TO MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HIGHS WILL DROP BACK INTO MAINLY THE 80S FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WORKWEEK...WITH SOME RELIEF FROM THE HUMIDITY BY THE
START OF NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
THERE APPEARS TO BE A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT HAS SETTLED
OVER THE COMMONWEALTH...LOCATED APPROXIMATELY FROM JUST SOUTH OF
SDF TO DVK AND THEN BACK NORTHEAST...POSSIBLY JUST SOUTH OF SYM.
BASED ON HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE UP
IN THE VCNTY OF THIS SFC BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON ONCE WE HIT
CONVECTIVE TEMPS...MID TO UPPER 80S OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
HAVE MAINTAINED A MENTION OF THUNDERSTROMS IN THE TAFS AND WILL
ADJUST ONCE WE HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON TIMING. ALSO EXPECTING SOME
GUSTY WINDS IN AND AROUND ANY THUNDERTSORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE
TONIGHT FOR MORE FOG THROUGH THE OEVRNIGHT. WEST...SOUTHWEST SFC
WINDS AT AROUND 5-8 KTS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON, BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. THEN INCREASE BACK UP AROUND 5KT
MONDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...RAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
116 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2015
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Updated at 1020 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2015
Wanted to give an updated on expected storm evolution this
afternoon. The latest guidance and satellite trends give growing
confidence that the storm initiation zone may end up being along and
south of the Ohio River. A thick cirrus shield from the convection
near Saint Louis, MO continues to push into southern Indiana and
even northern KY. This cloud canopy has provided a pretty good
differential heating boundary, with southern Indiana in the lower
70s and Louisville sitting at 80 degrees. Additionally, a dew point
gradient can be found along the Ohio River, with low to mid 70s to
the south and mid/upper 60s to the north. Therefore, think storms
will likely initiate along this boundary this afternoon (as the
latest HRRR runs suggest), then spread into portions of central and
even southern KY.
The good news with this more southern initiation is that southern IN
may see less of a threat for strong/severe storms. Additionally,
the deep-layer shear (0-6km) decreases to the south of
central/southern KY, so storms look to only have around 30 knots of
shear to work with. This amount of shear will still be sufficient
for a few severe storms, with the main threat being damaging winds
and hail to around quarter-sized being a secondary threat.
Will have to watch the upstream evolution today for a potential MCS
this afternoon. Guidance is split on whether the convection now
firing near Kansas City, MO will organize into a linear system that
may push into our area this evening. Will leave forecast as is for
now and continue to monitor this scenario over the coming hours.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Updated at 317 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2015
...Strong to Severe Storms Possible This Afternoon and Evening...
The remnants of the MCS that has been moving through IL and IN this
morning is about to move into our southern Indiana counties. These
storms are expected to continue to weaken and dissipate across the
area this morning as the move into a more stable airmass.
The main concern today will be the possibility of strong to severe
storms this afternoon. A slowly moving from will approach from the
north this afternoon. A weak vortmax will interact with this
boundary this afternoon as the atmosphere is destabilizing, sparking
storm development by mid to late afternoon. There are a couple of
things making this forecast tricky for the afternoon, especially
with timing, but also the area that will see the most storms. The
first is where any remnant boundaries from this morning`s convection
end up. These could serve as a focus for storm initiation. The other
will be cloud debris from the MCS. How quickly this erodes and how
thick it is will play a role in destabilization as well. The edge
may serve as a differential heating boundary. The models are
struggling with this as well. GFS/NAM place the highest chance for
storms across southern IN and north central KY closer to the front
and the better upper level support. However, the WRF NMM and ARW
have convection firing south of the Ohio River and moving to the
south through the afternoon hours. Evolution of the cloud shield and
boundaries definitely bears monitoring today.
Regardless of placement, some strong to marginally severe storms
will be possible. Plenty of moisture will pool ahead of the front
with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s expected. Soundings show the
potential for 1000-3000 J/kg CAPE. However, shear will be marginal
around 30 knots and maximized across the northern half of the
forecast area. Strong winds will be the main threat with the
strongest storms with some small hail possible.
Convection should diminish late this evening and things should be
mostly quiet overnight. Another wave will move through on Monday
sparking storms in the late morning to afternoon. The best chance
for storms will be across southern IN and portions of the
Bluegrass.
The other concern will be the hot temperatures. Highs today will be
in the upper 80s to lower 90s with lower 90s in most locations on
Monday. Heat index values will peak in the upper 90s to low 100s.
These high heat index values can lead to overheating if precautions
are not taken.
.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 325 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2015
The majority of the week will feature ridging over much of the
southern U.S. with active westerly flow over the northern U.S. The
Ohio Valley will be on the edge of these zones making for a tricky
forecast as far as precipitation chances. Troughing does look to
attempt to push into the Midwest next weekend, providing at least a
cool down but continued on and off precipitation chances.
Tuesday - Wednesday...
Tues and Wed will be the hottest days in the long term period with
ridging strongest in our area on these days. Look for temps to top
out in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Humid conditions will exist
Tues/Wed with dewpts reaching the low to mid 70s both days. The
humidity combined with the hot temps will result in heat indices
reaching the 100-105 degree range each afternoon. While these
numbers fall just shy of heat advisory criteria, feel the hot/humid
conditions are still worth a mention in an SPS. Night time lows
will stay in the low to mid 70s.
As for precipitation chances, a sfc front should drop south into the
Ohio Valley late in the day Tues providing a focus for
showers/storms. Although we`ll lack good wind shear, plenty of
instability will exist with CAPE values on the order of 3000-4000
J/KG. Thus, think that some strong storms will be possible with
gusty winds and potentially some small hail being the main threats.
Late Tue night, models indicate an MCS will develop to our WNW and
push ESE into our region during the day on Wed. Again wind shear
looks unimpressive but CAPE values have the potential to soar quite
high again if we can get enough breaks in the clouds Wed morning.
Thus, we could again see strong storms Wed as well.
Thursday - Saturday...
For Thursday and Friday, the ridge will start to break down over the
Ohio Valley allowing the active westerly flow to sink into our
region. This type of flow will feature multiple hard to time
shortwaves which will cause showers/storms. Have limited POPs to
20-50% in the long term period due to lack of confidence in timing.
Better forcing for storms may be present for next weekend if a more
significant shortwave trough can develop as some models suggest.
Temperatures/humidity should generally be on the decline through the
weekend. While highs on Thurs should still be in the upper
80s/lower 90s, dewpts should be slightly lower resulting in heat
indices below 100. By Saturday, high temps should fall back into
the low to mid 80s.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 113 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2015
Generally VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period,
although restrictions may prevail in thunderstorms this afternoon
and evening. The latest satellite and environment trends support
the idea that storms will initiate mainly south of KLEX and KSDF,
with little coverage expected around KSDF and KLEX. Therefore, have
removed VCTS mention at those sites, but added it into KBWG where
coverage is expected to be a bit better. Winds outside of storms
will be out of the WSW with gusts of 15-20 knots at times.
Confidence decreases a bit tonight, as convection across MO may
congeal and make a run at all sites overnight. However, it has
really struggled so far this morning and only a few guidance members
have it getting into the terminals later tonight, so will leave out
for now. Could be some light fog at KBWG and/or KLEX, but there
once again may be some mid/upper level clouds from convection to
limit any BR development, so will leave out for now.
Despite the overnight early morning thunderstorm chances, tomorrow
should be mainly dry as upper-level ridging builds in. VFR
conditions are expected with winds out of the WSW at 10-15 knots
with gusts to 20 knots.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........KJD
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......KJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
104 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.AVIATION...RADARS ARE QUIET FOR NOW, SOME ENHANCED CU NOTED
AROUND BPT, LCH, AND AEX. EXPECT THE CU TO DEVELOP AROUND AEX
SHORTLY PER LATEST HRRR BUT WILL ONLY GO AS FAR AS VCTS. BPT HAS
SOME MVFR CU CIGS WHICH SHOULD BE MOVING OUT SOON. WHILE MOISTURE
AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS PRESENT, THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH
CAPPING TO INHIBIT CONVECTION SO I BACKED OFF MENTION OF TS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS. SOME LIGHT FOG TO MVFR APPEARS
POSSIBLE FOR AEX LATE TNITE.
SWEENEY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1138 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TARGET...SO NO PLANS FOR AN UPDATE THIS
MORNING.
13
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015/
AVIATION...
FEW CLDS HOVERING AROUND 022 TO 028 THIS AM. CLOUDS BUILDING THRU
THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ISOLATED STORMS THIS AFTN
THAT WILL SHUT DOWN AROUND SS. OTHERWISE LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015/
DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS THE REMNANTS OF BILL OVER E PA...LIFTING OUT WITH
THE SHORTWAVE TROF. ACROSS OUR REGION...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC
CONTINUES ACROSS THE N GULF...WITH A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUING. LIKE THE LAST FEW DAYS...TEMPS THIS MORNING CONTINUE
ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 ALONG AND S OF
I-10 TO THE MID/UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER TX...COMBINING WITH THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT...
EXPECTED TO YIELD ISO-SCT AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE REGION.
COVERAGE MAY BE A LITTLE ENHANCED OVER INLAND SE TX WHERE THE
INTERACTION OF THE SHORTWAVE AND SEA-BREEZE FRONT OCCURS.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
RIDGING WESTWARD OVER OUR REGION INTO EARLY THIS WEEK. THE FOCUS
FOR ORGANIZED PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY MON/TUE...WITH
DECREASED POPS AS WELL. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS...ESPECIALLY FOR
LOWS...WILL CONTINUE.
BY WED & THU...A GRADUAL RETURN OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FROM THE
EAST IS EXPECTED AS AN EASTERLY WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
THUS...POPS INCREASED DURING THIS PERIOD. BY FRI & SAT...MOISTURE
AND FOCUS DIMINISHES SOMEWHAT AS RIDGING ALOFT RETURNS OVER THE N
GULF.
MARINE...
A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE SUBTROPICAL
HIGH CONTINUES RIDGING OVER THE GULF. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
MINIMAL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 93 76 94 76 / 20 10 20 10
LCH 91 77 92 77 / 20 10 20 10
LFT 92 76 92 76 / 20 10 30 10
BPT 91 77 91 76 / 20 10 20 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
438 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE NRN
CONUS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED
FROM SRN ALBERTA INTO NW MONTANA. AT THE SFC...A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDED
FROM WRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WI. THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS WELL
TO THE SOUTH...EXTENDING FROM NRN KS TO CNTRL INDIANA. SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWED CLEARING OVER THE WEST AND SOUTH WITH LINGERING CLOUDS OVER
THE NORTH AND EAST.
TONIGHT...MID-LVL RIDGING MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP THE FCST
AREA DRY. HIGHER DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S ADVECTING IN WITH A
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF PLAINS SYSTEM WILL ALSO
CONTRIBUTE TO MORE FOG/STRATUS FORMATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT OVER THE EAST HALF OF UPPER
MI...DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
MON...THE MORE PLAUSIBLE HIGHER RES MODEL SCENARIO...SHOWS AN
ONGOING MCS INTO SRN MN WILL SPREAD TO THE ESE TO SRN WI OR NRN IL
ALONG OR NEAR THE MUCAPE GRADIENT. SO...HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE PCPN
TIMING/POPS INTO WRN UPPER MI MON MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS
THE GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM SEEM TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PCPN.
SEVERAL OF THE HIGH RES MODELS KEEP UPPER MI DRY THROUGH 18Z.
SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED TSRA MAY SPREAD INTO THE WEST HALF IN THE
MORNING SUPPORTED INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION AND 305K-310K
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE UPPER MS
VALLEY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN PCPN COVERAGE/TIMING IS LOW WITH
UNCERTAINTY ON THE IMPACTS OF THE MCS TO THE SOUTH. IF ENOUGH
CLEARING/HEATING DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE INITIAL BATCH
OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OR LIGHT RAIN TO BOOST TEMPS TO THE MID 70S AND
CAPES TO AROUND 1K J/KG...SEVERE TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE
SHORTWAVE AND SFC TROUGH APPROACH. LARGE 0-6KM/0-1KM SHEAR VALUE OF
50-60KT/30-40KT AND LARGE HELICITY VALUES WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT THAT MAY EVOLVE/ORGANIZE INTO SEVERE STORM
CLUSTERS OR AN MCS. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND EVEN TORNADOS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THIS IS CONDITIONAL AS CONFIDENCE IN THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT WILL DEVELOP IS LOW.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AT
THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A SURFACE LOW OF AROUND 1000MB
WILL BE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD AND IT WILL QUICKLY MOVE NORTH OF LAKE HURON BY 06Z AND
CONTINUE TO THE NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC BY 12Z TUESDAY. CONVECTION
EARLIER IN THE DAY WILL DETERMINE THE EVOLUTION OF THE POPS FOR
THE MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD...BUT WILL SHOW THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE
EASTERN CWA AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW AND WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING
EAST THROUGH THE AREA. BEHIND THESE FEATURES...A TRAILING SURFACE
TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST MAY LEAD TO A SECONDARY AREA OF SHOWERS
UNDER THE WRAP AROUND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DURING THE EVENING AND
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE WESTERN CWA AND THEN OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND EAST LATE IN THE NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY
MORNING. WILL JUST SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING FOR THOSE SHOWERS.
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
LOW...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE SHORELINE
AREAS. WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE IN THE 35-40KT RANGE ON ALL
OF THE MODELS...WHILE THE OVER LAKE INSTABILITY IS STILL VERY LOW AS
TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE STILL AROUND 13-14C. BUT
WITH DECENT PRESSURE FALLS BEHIND THE LOW ON EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...FEEL COMFORTABLE ENOUGH PUTTING IN SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS
IN THAT AREA FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO UPPER MICHIGAN ON
TUESDAY AND DIMINISH THE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUDS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING TO DIMINISH
BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND WITH AFTERNOON MIXING HIGHS SHOULD RISE
TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST
INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE OCCURRING OVER
NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO WITH THE TROUGH...BUT THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE FORCING AND MOISTURE BRUSHING
NORTHEAST LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THAT
PORTION OF THE LAKE. BEHIND THAT WAVE...THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN
SYSTEMS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS MOVING INTO OR DEVELOPING OVER
WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF WEAK INSTABILITY WITH THIS
NEXT WAVE (EVEN WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AT A
CLIMATOLOGICALLY POOR TIME)...SO WILL MENTION JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDER. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA INTO THURSDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON
HOW QUICKLY THE LAST OF THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES DEPARTS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...SO WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH POPS DURING THAT PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY...BUT COULD STILL SEE
SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST/CENTRAL AND WILL HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE FLOW TRANSITIONING TO NORTHWESTERLY
ALOFT AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
MAY PUSH A FEW WEAK WAVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...BUT RAIN
POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE LIMITED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
EXPECT DRIER AIR AND INCREASED HEATING/MIXING WILL SPREAD EAST THIS
AFTERNOON WITH VLIFR CIGS AT CMX AND MVFR CIGS AT SAW IMPROVING TO
VFR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO LINGER AT SAW FOR SOME FOG AND LOWER CIGS TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT
AIDED BY WEAK SRLY FLOW. IFR IFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP THEY
SHOULD AGAIN LIFT TO VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING. SHOWERS AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING DISTURBANCE MAY AFFECT IWD BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 437 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WILL KEEP WINDS UNDER 20 KTS. A LOW
PRES SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY INTO
MON EVENING. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THIS LOW WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF WNW 35 KNOT GALES LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...STRONGEST OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. HIGH PRES BUILDING BACK OVER THE AREA WILL THEN KEEP WINDS
LIGHT AGAIN FROM LATE TUE INTO THU.
LINGERING LOW-LVL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT FOG ACROSS THE LAKE...THAT
COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE FROM TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
436 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE NRN
CONUS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED
FROM SRN ALBERTA INTO NW MONTANA. AT THE SFC...A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDED
FROM WRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WI. THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS WELL
TO THE SOUTH...EXTENDING FROM NRN KS TO CNTRL INDIANA. SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWED CLEARING OVER THE WEST AND SOUTH WITH LINGERING CLOUDS OVER
THE NORTH AND EAST.
TONIGHT...MID-LVL RIDGING MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP THE FCST
AREA DRY. HIGHER DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S ADVECTING IN WITH A
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF PLAINS SYSTEM WILL ALSO
CONTRIBUTE TO MORE FOG/STRATUS FORMATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT OVER THE EAST HALF OF UPPER
MI...DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
MON...THE MORE PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE HIGHER RES
MODELS SHOWS AN ONGOING MCS INTO SRN MN WILL SPREAD TO THE ESE TO
SRN WI OR NRN IL ALONG OR NEAR THE MUCAPE GRADIENT. SO...HAVE BACKED
OFF ON THE PCPN TIMING/POPS INTO WRN UPPER MI MON MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON AS THE GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM SEEM TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE PCPN. IN FACT...SEVERAL OF THE HIGH RES MODELS KEEP UPPER MI DRY
THROUGH 18Z.
NEVERTHELESS...SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED TSRA MAY SPREAD INTO THE
WEST HALF IN THE MORNING SUPPORTED INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
305K- 310K ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE
UPPER MS VALLEY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN PCPN COVERAGE/TIMING IS LOW
WITH UNCERTAINTY ON THE IMPACTS OF THE MCS TO THE SOUTH. IF ENOUGH
CLEARING/HEATING DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE INITIAL BATCH
OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OR LIGHT RAIN TO BOOST TEMPS TO THE MID 70S AND
CAPES TO AROUND 1K J/KG...SEVERE TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE. LARGE 0-
6KM/0-1KM SHEAR VALUE OF 50-60KT/30-40KT AND LARGE HELICITY VALUES
WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT THAT MAY
EVOLVE/ORGANIZE INTO SEVERE STORM CLUSTERS OR AN MCS. DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND EVEN TORNADOS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...THIS IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL AS CONFIDENCE IN THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY THAT WILL DEVELOP IS LOW.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AT
THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A SURFACE LOW OF AROUND 1000MB
WILL BE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD AND IT WILL QUICKLY MOVE NORTH OF LAKE HURON BY 06Z AND
CONTINUE TO THE NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC BY 12Z TUESDAY. CONVECTION
EARLIER IN THE DAY WILL DETERMINE THE EVOLUTION OF THE POPS FOR
THE MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD...BUT WILL SHOW THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE
EASTERN CWA AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW AND WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING
EAST THROUGH THE AREA. BEHIND THESE FEATURES...A TRAILING SURFACE
TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST MAY LEAD TO A SECONDARY AREA OF SHOWERS
UNDER THE WRAP AROUND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DURING THE EVENING AND
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE WESTERN CWA AND THEN OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND EAST LATE IN THE NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY
MORNING. WILL JUST SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING FOR THOSE SHOWERS.
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
LOW...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE SHORELINE
AREAS. WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE IN THE 35-40KT RANGE ON ALL
OF THE MODELS...WHILE THE OVER LAKE INSTABILITY IS STILL VERY LOW AS
TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE STILL AROUND 13-14C. BUT
WITH DECENT PRESSURE FALLS BEHIND THE LOW ON EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...FEEL COMFORTABLE ENOUGH PUTTING IN SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS
IN THAT AREA FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO UPPER MICHIGAN ON
TUESDAY AND DIMINISH THE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUDS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING TO DIMINISH
BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND WITH AFTERNOON MIXING HIGHS SHOULD RISE
TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST
INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE OCCURRING OVER
NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO WITH THE TROUGH...BUT THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE FORCING AND MOISTURE BRUSHING
NORTHEAST LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THAT
PORTION OF THE LAKE. BEHIND THAT WAVE...THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN
SYSTEMS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS MOVING INTO OR DEVELOPING OVER
WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF WEAK INSTABILITY WITH THIS
NEXT WAVE (EVEN WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AT A
CLIMATOLOGICALLY POOR TIME)...SO WILL MENTION JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDER. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA INTO THURSDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON
HOW QUICKLY THE LAST OF THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES DEPARTS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...SO WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH POPS DURING THAT PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY...BUT COULD STILL SEE
SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST/CENTRAL AND WILL HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE FLOW TRANSITIONING TO NORTHWESTERLY
ALOFT AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
MAY PUSH A FEW WEAK WAVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...BUT RAIN
POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE LIMITED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
EXPECT DRIER AIR AND INCREASED HEATING/MIXING WILL SPREAD EAST THIS
AFTERNOON WITH VLIFR CIGS AT CMX AND MVFR CIGS AT SAW IMPROVING TO
VFR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO LINGER AT SAW FOR SOME FOG AND LOWER CIGS TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT
AIDED BY WEAK SRLY FLOW. IFR IFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP THEY
SHOULD AGAIN LIFT TO VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING. SHOWERS AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING DISTURBANCE MAY AFFECT IWD BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL KEEP WINDS UNDER 20
KTS. A LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
MONDAY INTO MON EVENING. COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW
WILL SUPPORT WNW WINDS 20 TO 30 KTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING...STRONGEST OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH PRES
BUILDING BACK OVER THE AREA WILL THEN KEEP WINDS LIGHT AGAIN FROM
LATE TUE INTO THU.
LINGERING LOW-LVL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT FOG ACROSS THE LAKE...THAT
COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE FROM TODAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
300 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE NRN
CONUS WITH A SHORTWAVE NOTED UPSTREAM OVER THE NRN MN. LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA HAS RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING.
TODAY...WEAK SFC RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE AREA WILL ALLOW LAKE
BREEZES TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. AT SAME TIME MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS
MLCAPE VALUES COULD CLIMB NEAR 500 J/KG OVER MAINLY THE SCNTRL FCST
AREA FROM NEAR ESC TO CRYSTAL FALLS. THIS INSTABILITY ALONG WITH THE
FOCUS PROVIDED BY THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES MAY BE ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER SOME ISOLD SHRA/TSRA OVER THE SCNTRL FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY
WITH MODELS SHOWING HINT OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY FARTHER NORTH AND
SOME MID LEVEL CAPPING NEAR 700 MB...NO AFTERNOON PCPN IS EXPECTED
OVER THE REST OF THE CWA. LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 60S NORTH AND EAST TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE WISCONSIN
BORDER COUNTIES.
TONIGHT...MID-LVL RIDGING MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP THE FCST
AREA DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. INCREASING Q-VECT CONVERGENCE
AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING IN A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA TO THE FAR
WESTERN CWA TOWARD 12Z MONDAY. HIGHER DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S
ADVECTING IN WITH A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF PLAINS SYSTEM
WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO MORE FOG/STRATUS FORMATION ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT OVER THE EAST HALF OF UPPER
MI...DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AT
THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A SURFACE LOW OF AROUND 1000MB
WILL BE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD AND IT WILL QUICKLY MOVE NORTH OF LAKE HURON BY 06Z AND
CONTINUE TO THE NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC BY 12Z TUESDAY. CONVECTION
EARLIER IN THE DAY WILL DETERMINE THE EVOLUTION OF THE POPS FOR
THE MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD...BUT WILL SHOW THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE
EASTERN CWA AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW AND WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING
EAST THROUGH THE AREA. BEHIND THESE FEATURES...A TRAILING SURFACE
TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST MAY LEAD TO A SECONDARY AREA OF SHOWERS
UNDER THE WRAP AROUND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DURING THE EVENING AND
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE WESTERN CWA AND THEN OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND EAST LATE IN THE NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY
MORNING. WILL JUST SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING FOR THOSE SHOWERS.
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
LOW...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE SHORELINE
AREAS. WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE IN THE 35-40KT RANGE ON ALL
OF THE MODELS...WHILE THE OVER LAKE INSTABILITY IS STILL VERY LOW AS
TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE STILL AROUND 13-14C. BUT
WITH DECENT PRESSURE FALLS BEHIND THE LOW ON EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...FEEL COMFORTABLE ENOUGH PUTTING IN SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS
IN THAT AREA FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO UPPER MICHIGAN ON
TUESDAY AND DIMINISH THE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUDS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING TO DIMINISH
BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND WITH AFTERNOON MIXING HIGHS SHOULD RISE
TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST
INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE OCCURRING OVER
NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO WITH THE TROUGH...BUT THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE FORCING AND MOISTURE BRUSHING
NORTHEAST LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THAT
PORTION OF THE LAKE. BEHIND THAT WAVE...THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN
SYSTEMS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS MOVING INTO OR DEVELOPING OVER
WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF WEAK INSTABILITY WITH THIS
NEXT WAVE (EVEN WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AT A
CLIMATOLOGICALLY POOR TIME)...SO WILL MENTION JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDER. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA INTO THURSDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON
HOW QUICKLY THE LAST OF THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES DEPARTS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...SO WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH POPS DURING THAT PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY...BUT COULD STILL SEE
SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST/CENTRAL AND WILL HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE FLOW TRANSITIONING TO NORTHWESTERLY
ALOFT AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
MAY PUSH A FEW WEAK WAVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...BUT RAIN
POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE LIMITED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
EXPECT DRIER AIR AND INCREASED HEATING/MIXING WILL SPREAD EAST THIS
AFTERNOON WITH VLIFR CIGS AT CMX AND MVFR CIGS AT SAW IMPROVING TO
VFR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO LINGER AT SAW FOR SOME FOG AND LOWER CIGS TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT
AIDED BY WEAK SRLY FLOW. IFR IFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP THEY
SHOULD AGAIN LIFT TO VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING. SHOWERS AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING DISTURBANCE MAY AFFECT IWD BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL KEEP WINDS UNDER 20
KTS. A LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
MONDAY INTO MON EVENING. COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW
WILL SUPPORT WNW WINDS 20 TO 30 KTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING...STRONGEST OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH PRES
BUILDING BACK OVER THE AREA WILL THEN KEEP WINDS LIGHT AGAIN FROM
LATE TUE INTO THU.
LINGERING LOW-LVL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT FOG ACROSS THE LAKE...THAT
COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE FROM TODAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
152 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE NRN
CONUS WITH A SHORTWAVE NOTED UPSTREAM OVER THE NRN MN. LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA HAS RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING.
TODAY...WEAK SFC RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE AREA WILL ALLOW LAKE
BREEZES TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. AT SAME TIME MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS
MLCAPE VALUES COULD CLIMB NEAR 500 J/KG OVER MAINLY THE SCNTRL FCST
AREA FROM NEAR ESC TO CRYSTAL FALLS. THIS INSTABILITY ALONG WITH THE
FOCUS PROVIDED BY THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES MAY BE ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER SOME ISOLD SHRA/TSRA OVER THE SCNTRL FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY
WITH MODELS SHOWING HINT OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY FARTHER NORTH AND
SOME MID LEVEL CAPPING NEAR 700 MB...NO AFTERNOON PCPN IS EXPECTED
OVER THE REST OF THE CWA. LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 60S NORTH AND EAST TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE WISCONSIN
BORDER COUNTIES.
TONIGHT...MID-LVL RIDGING MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP THE FCST
AREA DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. INCREASING Q-VECT CONVERGENCE
AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING IN A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA TO THE FAR
WESTERN CWA TOWARD 12Z MONDAY. HIGHER DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S
ADVECTING IN WITH A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF PLAINS SYSTEM
WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO MORE FOG/STRATUS FORMATION ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT OVER THE EAST HALF OF UPPER
MI...DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE SETUP FOR MON WHEN TWO WAVES (ONE W OF
OR AND WA AND ANOTHER OVER BC CANADA) MERGE AND SEND A POTENT
SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE REGION. WHILE THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT/VARIABILITY...MODELS GENERALLY INDICATE A LOW AROUND
1000MB MOVING FROM CENTRAL/SRN MN TO THE CENTRAL U.P. MON
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM LOOKS
TO HANG UP OVER CENTRAL OR NRN WI...WHICH IS SUFFICIENT TO KEEP
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE CWA. THE FORECAST FOR MON IS
EXTREMELY DEPENDENT ON CONVECTION AND EXACTLY WHERE THE WARM FRONT
SETS UP. MORNING CONVECTION WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE
COMPLICATION...WITH AN UNKNOWN LEVEL OF CLEARING/DESTABILIZATION.
CURRENT THINKING CONTINUES TO BE THAT EITHER A STRONG CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX OR CLUSTER OF SUPERCELL STORMS WILL MOVE S OF THE CWA IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...IF THE FRONT SURGES FARTHER N OR IF
ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP...SHEAR WILL BE VERY STRONG AND THE
OVERALL SYSTEM QUITE POTENT SO SEVERE STORMS WOULD LIKELY
RESULT...WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES ALL
CONDITIONALLY POSSIBLE. IT SEEMS THAT SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WI/MI
REGION (LIKELY FROM CENTRAL WI TO LOWER MI) WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE EVENT. AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A MORE
CLIMATOLOGICAL APPROACH (WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM)
WHICH KEEP STRONGER STORMS S OF THE CWA AND WILL NOT PUT ANY
STRONG/SEVERE EMPHASIS INTO THE HWO.
SHOULD SEE GRADUALLY CLEARING CONDITIONS BY TUE MORNING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THE CENTRAL U.S.. SHOULD SEE MARINE FOG NEAR ERN
LAKE SUPERIOR MON NIGHT AS NW WINDS BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE SWEEP FOG
ONSHORE. OTHERWISE...SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL ON TUE.
NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SOME THUNDER ARRIVES ON WED
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES OFF AND ON THROUGH THU AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. LIMITED THUNDER POTENTIAL TO SLIGHT CHANCES GIVEN
LIMITED INSTABILITY.
AN UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO BECOME DOMINANT OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR COOLER CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
EXPECT DRIER AIR AND INCREASED HEATING/MIXING WILL SPREAD EAST THIS
AFTERNOON WITH VLIFR CIGS AT CMX AND MVFR CIGS AT SAW IMPROVING TO
VFR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO LINGER AT SAW FOR SOME FOG AND LOWER CIGS TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT
AIDED BY WEAK SRLY FLOW. IFR IFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP THEY
SHOULD AGAIN LIFT TO VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING. SHOWERS AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING DISTURBANCE MAY AFFECT IWD BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL KEEP WINDS UNDER 20
KTS. A LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
MONDAY INTO MON EVENING. COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW
WILL SUPPORT WNW WINDS 20 TO 30 KTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING...STRONGEST OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH PRES
BUILDING BACK OVER THE AREA WILL THEN KEEP WINDS LIGHT AGAIN FROM
LATE TUE INTO THU.
LINGERING LOW-LVL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT FOG ACROSS THE LAKE...THAT
COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE FROM TODAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
357 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
CANT RULE OUT A STRAY SPRINKLE/LIGHT SHOWER THIS EVENING AS
LATEST SPC RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS 500-1000 J/KG OF CAPE SITTING OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY IS PICKING UP ON A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS TRYING TO GAIN MOMENTUM OVER NW WISCONSIN.
HOWEVER...THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE NEAR SUNSET WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING.
FOCUS TURNS TO THE ON GOING CONVECTION IN THE DAKOTAS...WHERE A
SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WITH DEEPENING H85/SFC LOW WILL
ALLOW THE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP INTO A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX...WHICH TRANSLATES ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND INTO
MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE EXACT TRACK IS STILL SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN...LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW THE CONVECTION
REACHING THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE DLH CWA AROUND
MIDNIGHT...REACHING THE TWIN PORTS AROUND DAY BREAK MONDAY.
THE SHORT WAVES WITH SFC TROUGH/H85 LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS PUSH
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS
A POTENTIAL FOR FEW STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE MONDAY. THE
MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SUFFICIENT
SHEAR AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...THE CAPE VALUES ARE MAXIMIZED OVER
WISCONSIN DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
SEASONABLE TO MILD WEEK AHEAD WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME MID/LATE WEEK
SHOWERS AND STORMS.
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE THERE WILL BE FAST FLOW ALOFT WITH A 100KT JET
STREAK MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO A MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECTING QUIET
WEATHER ON TUESDAY...A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE TUES INTO
THURSDAY...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY SEASONABLE TO MILD.
MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BE EXITING THE REGION FOLLOWING
A LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVES THROUGH EARLIER IN THE DAY. PRECIP WILL
LIKELY END BY 06Z AS SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIP ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO THE ARROWHEAD REGION.
TUESDAY...GENERALLY SUNNY AND DRY DUE TO AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DRIFTING EAST. A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS
MAY FIRE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER DUE TO A WEAK FRONT DRIFTING
SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A SMALL
HAIL/GUSTY WIND THREAT FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS...BUT SHEAR ALOFT
APPEARS TO BE INSUFFICIENT FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES COULD DROP TO 35-40 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH THIS WILL DEPEND ON AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER. HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH A LIGHT WEST WIND.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EASTWARD
THERE WILL BE A NUMBER OF WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW
HEADED TOWARDS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE PATTERN WILL BE FAIRLY
COMPLEX...BUT IN GENERAL EXPECT PRECIP CHANCES TO INCREASE FROM LATE
TUESDAY...THROUGH THURSDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES MAKE IT TOUGH TO
DETERMINE WHICH DAY WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP...BUT NO
DAY LOOKS LIKE A COMPLETE WASHOUT. TEMPS REMAINING NEAR NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN 50S.
FRI...SAT...SUN...SEASONABLE TO MILD PATTERN CONTINUES. FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY AS A RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST COAST
AND TROUGH EVENTUALLY DEEPENING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN THE UPPER MIDWEST CONTINUING TO
BE IN THE PATH OF A NUMBER OF WEAK DISTURBANCES AND FRONTAL
PASSAGES. ECMWF/GFS/GEFS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
PATTERN...AND ALSO DEEPEN AN UPPER LOW SOMEWHERE NEAR HUDSON
BAY...WHICH MAY RESULT IN MORE ORGANIZED PATTERN SATURDAY/SUNDAY.
TEMPS AGAIN MORE OF THE SAME...HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND
LOWS IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS WITH
THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN TURNING MVFR TO IFR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING DUE TO INCOMING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS LIGHT
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON
BECOMING SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT. WILL BE WATCHING AN INCOMING
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WHICH WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS
AND STORMS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS BIT BELOW
AVERAGE FOR WHAT STORM COVERAGE WILL BE LIKE THROUGH THE DAY. FOR
NOW DECIDED TO STICK WITH VCTS MENTIONS AT MOST SITES. HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS ROLLING THROUGH INL/HIB THIS
MORNING...BUT THIS MAY CHANGE IN LATER FORECASTS AS THE UPSTREAM
CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND EVOLVES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 55 72 53 76 / 50 70 10 0
INL 54 67 51 75 / 70 80 20 20
BRD 61 77 55 78 / 70 70 0 0
HYR 58 75 56 76 / 30 70 10 0
ASX 54 74 55 76 / 20 70 10 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
352 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
NICE AFTERNOON UNFOLDING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. FORECAST FROM
THE OVERNIGHT IS WORKING OUT NICELY...WITH MOST LOCATIONS WELL ON
THEIR WAY TOWARD THE MID 80S. ONLY CHANGE MADE TO THE GRIDS THIS
AFTERNOON WAS TO REMOVE THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MENTION AS RAP
SB/MLCAPE FORECAST SHOW NO INSTABILITY DEVELOPING IN THE MPX AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS GIVES US A NICE CLEAN SLATE FROM WHICH TO WORK
WITH FOR THE MAIN SHOW WEATHER-WISE FOR LIKELY THE NEXT WEEK.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS TWO WAVES OF INTEREST. ONE
IS OVER SRN ALBERTA WITH THE OTHER MOVING ACROSS OREGON. THE NRN
STREAM WAVE IS ALREADY SPARKING OFF THUNDERSTORM IN THE ND/MT/SASK
BORDER REGION. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO CONGEAL INTO A LINEAR SYSTEM
LATER THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL BE APPROACHING THE NW MPX CWA BY 6Z.
AS WE GET TOWARD 6Z...THE WAVE CURRENTLY OVER OREGON WILL BE OUT
OVER THE BLACK HILLS...WITH HI-RES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOWING
THIS WAVE LEADING TO ANOTHER AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER
NORTHERN SODAK. BASED ON REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS AND STORM TOTAL
PRECIPITATION SWATHS...LOOKS LIKE THESE TWO WAVES WILL MAINTAIN
THEIR SEPARATION. THIS WILL RESULT IN ONE COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING
ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN MN TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER COMING OUT OF SODAK AND
ACROSS SRN MN LATE TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING AND GOING INTO SE WI BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE TWO SCENARIOS WE ARE SEEING IN THE GUIDANCE IS 1) THE NRN WAVE
REMAINS DOMINATE...DRIVING ONE COMPLEX ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN MN...WITH
NOT MUCH SOUTH. 2) THE NRN COMPLEX DIES OUT AS IT MOVES ACROSS
CENTRAL MN...WITH THE SRN COMPLEX ENTERING WRN MN AROUND 9Z AND
MOVING OUT OF THE EAST END OF THE MPX CWA BY 18Z. THE GEM IS ABOUT
THE ONLY MODEL PLAYING INTO SCENARIO 1...SO CURRENT GRIDS ARE GOING
DOWN THE SCENARIO 2 ROUTE...WHICH IN ONE FLAVOR OR ANOTHER IS
SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR/ARW/NMM/ECMWF/NAM/GFS. FROM THE SEVERE
THREAT...THE NRN COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE A WIND
GUST OR TWO...BUT THE SEVERE RISK FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
REALLY HINGES ON HOW THE SRN WAVE EVOLVES.
THE SEVERE PARAMETERS FOR SCENARIO 2 CONTINUE TO BE IMPRESSIVE WITH
A 110 KT UPPER JET AND 80 KT WRLY MID LEVEL JET STREAK AS MUCAPE
UPWARDS OF 4000 J/KG COMES UP OUT OF IOWA. BOTH THERMODYNAMIC AND
KINEMATIC PARAMETERS CONTINUE SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BOWING
MCS. FOR THE SEVERE THREAT...THE QUESTION BECOMES CAN WE OVERCOME A
STABLE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE
MUCAPE VALUES NOTED ABOVE RESULT FROM LIFTING A PARCEL OFF A WARM
NOSE CENTERED AROUND THE H9 LEVEL. IF THIS STABLE LAYER HOLDS...THEN
WE WOULD LIKELY SEE JUST AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND THREAT THROUGH THE
NIGHT. IF THIS COMPLEX CAN OVERCOME THIS STABLE NEAR SURFACE
LAYER...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT WIND
EVENT. IN FACT...THERE IS POTENTIAL WE COULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT
DERECHO OUT OF THIS EVENT...WITH WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE FROM
ABERDEEN SOUTH DAKOTA ALL THE WAY TOWARD DETROIT THROUGH THE COURSE
OF MONDAY. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT THE LATER COULD COME TRUE
BASED ON STORM MOTION. CORFIDI VECTORS AND FORWARD MOTION OF THE
BOWING SEGMENT IN THE HI-RES ARW REFLECTIVITY FORECAST SUPPORT A
STORM MOTION OF 60-65 MPH...SO JUST THAT ON ITS OWN COULD LEAD TO A
LOT OF ISSUES. ON THE BRIGHT SIDE THOUGH...THIS TYPE OF STORM MOTION
WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT LOW...AS PWATS WILL BE BE PUSHING 2
INCHES AS THE SRN STREAM WAVE MOVES THROUGH.
FOR THE REST OF MONDAY...THE MORNING ACTIVITY LOOKS TO PRETTY MUCH
CLEAN US OUT...WITH A COLD FRONT CLEARING THE ERN MPX CWA A LITTLE
AFTER 18Z. BY THE AFTERNOON...IT WILL BE BEAUTIFUL...WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 AND BREEZY NW WINDS THAT WILL LIKELY BE
GUSTING 25-30 MPH OUT IN WRN MN AS WE DRY OUT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF SUMMER DOESN/T LOOK TOO BAD WEATHERWISE AS
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM STRONG WESTERLY FLOW TO A
RIDGE IN THE WEST/TROUGH IN THE EAST. THIS HAS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED
FOR MANY DAYS NOW ON THE GFS/ECMWF. THIS WILL KEEP THE MAIN FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WELL TO OUR SOUTH...ESSENTIALLY RUNNING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
FORECASTWISE...IT LOOKS DRY FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THEREAFTER...WEAK PURTABATIONS IN THE DEVELOPING NORTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION WILL BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE PERIODS WITH THE BEST AGREEMENT ARE LATE
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. RAIN
AMOUNTS WITH BOTH OF THESE EVENTS LOOK LIGHT.
EVEN WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
COMMON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
MAIN CONCERN THIS TAF PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
TSRA ACTIVITY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. FAVORED THE IDEA OF THE
GFS/HRRR FOR THESE TAFS. WITH THAT...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN WRN NODAK THAT WILL SEND A COMPLEX OF
TSRA INTO CENTRAL MN AFTER 6Z. HENCE BRINGING SHRA MENTION IN MUCH
EARLIER FOR AXN/STC. AS THIS IS GOING ON...WE SHOULD SEE
CONVECTION RAPIDLY EXPAND ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SODAK THAT WILL
BECOME THE PRIMARY TSRA COMPLEX...ENTERING WRN MN AROUND 9Z.
FORWARD MOTION ON THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE PUSHING 60 KTS...SO
IT SHOULD WAIST NO TIME IN WORKING ACROSS THE AREA...REACHING THE
TWIN CITIES AROUND 12Z AND PUSHING INTO EAU BY 15Z. IS POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT WIND GUSTS WITH THIS SRN SYSTEM. PUT SOME MVFR
CIGS IN FOR BEHIND THIS ANTICIPATED COMPLEX...BUT HAVE LESS
CONFIDENCE ON HOW EXTENSIVE ANY OF THAT WILL BE.
KMSP...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ON A SIGNIFICANT LINE OF
STORMS IMPACTING MSP DURING THE PEAK OF THE MORNING RUSH...SO
IMPACT TO TRAFFIC COULD BE SIGNIFICANT IN THE MORNING. WILL HAVE
TO WATCH HOW FAR SOUTH THE NODAK COMPLEX BUILDS...HRRR IS
INDICATING THE SOUTH END BEING WELL SOUTH OF I-94. IF THE HRRR IS
RIGHT...WE COULD SEE ONE ROUND OF STORMS AROUND 9Z...WITH THE
SODAK BATCH GETTING HERE CLOSER TO 12Z.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW TO W AT 5-10 KT.
WED...VFR. CHC OF TSRA. WINDS SE 5 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS N 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
111 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 455 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
SEMI-ZONAL FLOW REMAINS IN TACT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WITH
THE NEXT ROUND OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO ARRIVE LATER TODAY.
IN THE MEANTIME...TODAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN NORMAL. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S UNDER WESTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW...PER FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS WHICH ILLUSTRATE MIXING TO
AROUND 800MB. BY MID AFTERNOON...HI RES MODELS INDICATE POCKETS OF
1500-2000 J/KG ML CAPES DEVELOPING FROM WEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TOWARD THE AREA. HAVE
THEREFORE INCLUDED A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH
MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD EXPERIENCE A DRY SUNDAY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW WILL BECOME THE FOCI
FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...AS STOUT MOISTURE
ADVECTION DEVELOPS ON THE NOSE OF A 50KT LOW LEVEL JET. THE
RESULTANT DEVELOPMENT OF A MCS APPEARS LIKELY...WITH CATEGORICAL
POPS SPREADING INTO THE AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z MONDAY. HIGHLY
IMPRESSIVE DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE IS PROGGED TO BLOSSOM OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL MN DURING THIS TIME AS WELL...BY BOTH GFS AND NAM
SOLUTIONS...GIVEN THE COUPLED JET STRUCTURE. THIS WILL POSE A RISK
FOR SEVERE WINDS TO ACCOMPANY THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 455 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
FROM A BIG PICTURE PERSPECTIVE...RELATIVELY STRAIGHT FORWARD
FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH A TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...AND WAS THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ON
SATURDAY...WILL LAY OUT EAST-TO-WEST AND OSCILLATE NORTH AND SOUTH
BETWEEN THE I-70 AND I-90 CORRIDORS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL. AS ALLUDED TO IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BE THE PERIOD OF INTEREST TO WATCH...AS
FORECAST ANALOGS AND MODEL GUIDANCE POINT TO A POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT STRAIGHT LINE WIND EVENT ALONG THE EAST/WEST ORIENTED
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY.
THE NUMBER 1 CIPS ANALOG ACCORDING TO THE 21.00 NAM IS MAY31
1998...WHICH WAS A HIGH END DERECHO ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. GIVEN THAT INFORMATION...A THOROUGH INVESTIGATION OF THE
MONDAY 12-24Z TIME PERIOD IS WARRANTED. AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...12Z MONDAY...AN MCS SHOULD ALREADY BE ONGOING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. A FEW THINGS STAND OUT IN THE FORECAST MODELS.
FIRST IS THE FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE. THE DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED
COMPONENT YIELD 60 TO 80KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. MEANWHILE...THE
0-3KM SHEAR IS ON THE ORDER OF 35 TO 45KTS AND IS ORIENTED
EAST/WEST...WHICH WOULD BE NORMAL TO A BOW ECHO AND PROMOTES THE
UPDRAFT PLACEMENT ABOVE THE COLD POOL WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR A
LONG LIFE CYCLE OF THE BOW.
LOOKING BACK AT THE DATA FROM THIS PAST SATURDAY MORNING...THE
EVENTS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR FROM A SHEAR PERSPECTIVE...BUT ONE OF
THE TWO GLARING DIFFERENCES IS THE LACK OF INSTABILITY THAT WAS IN
PLACE ACROSS MN AND FARTHER EAST...WHICH GIVEN THE BENEFIT OF
HINDSIGHT LED TO A QUICK REDUCTION IN THE SEVERE THREAT BY 12Z
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS ANYWHERE FROM 2000 TO
3500 J/KG OF CAPE POOLED ALONG I-90 AT 12Z MONDAY...WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW THE CONVECTION TO MAINTAIN ITSELF THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...AND PERHAPS STRENGTHEN DOWNSTREAM TOWARD MID MORNING WITH
THE DESTABILIZATION OF DIABATIC HEATING. THE SECOND DIFFERENCE IS
THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET...WHICH WAS ON THE ORDER OF 65
TO 75 KTS ON SATURDAY...BUT SHOULD RANGE FROM 90 TO 100 KTS WITH
THIS COMING SYSTEM. THIS COMPARES MORE CLOSELY TO THE 100-115 KT
JET OBSERVED IN THE 00Z KMPX RAOB FROM MAY 31 1998. THIS IS MERELY
ANECDOTAL EVIDENCE THAT THE ATMOSPHERIC INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE
FOR A SIGNIFICANT WIND EVENT...AND NOT A PREDICTION OF A REPEAT OF
THE 1998 EVENT OR AN ATTEMPT TO INTRODUCE FEAR.
INSTEAD...THIS EVENT SEEMS SIMILAR TO THE JUNE 30 EVENT OF LAST
YEAR ACROSS IOWA AND ILLINOIS...ONLY DISPLACED FARTHER NORTH. THE
UNIQUE ASPECT OF THAT EVENT WAS THE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION.
SOME OF THE HIRES MODELS TRY TO HINT AT THIS SCENARIO.
HOWEVER...WITH THE JUN 30 2014 EVENT THERE WAS A MUCH STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT CONTINUALLY FORCED CONVECTION...AND THAT
DOESNT SEEM TO BE THE CASE IN THIS EVENT. INSTEAD ANTICIPATE ONE
QUICK MOVING LINE OF PRECIP...AND THEREFORE WENT VERY AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE REMOVAL OF POPS MONDAY AFTERNOON. PWAT VALUES ARE
HIGH...BUT GIVEN THE SPEED OF CONVECTION NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
HYDRO PROBLEMS UNLESS MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS DOES INDEED
DEVELOP.
IN SUMMARY...MONDAYS SHEAR/CAPE/FORCING INGREDIENTS ARE THE MOST
FAVORABLE OF THE YEAR FOR SEVERE WEATHER...AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SPC UPGRADE THE RISK TO MODERATE ONCE CONFIDENCE IN
LOCATION INCREASES. THE PRIMARY THREAT IS DAMAGING WIND WITH AN
ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS. THE 21.00 WRFARW AND EMC-WRFNMM FIT THE
CONCEPTUAL MODEL THE BEST IN PLACEMENT...AND FEEL THE QUICKER TIMING
OF THE ECM-WRFNMM MAY BE MORE ACCURATE THAN THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER
WRFARW. USED MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
MAIN CONCERN THIS TAF PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
TSRA ACTIVITY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. FAVORED THE IDEA OF THE
GFS/HRRR FOR THESE TAFS. WITH THAT...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN WRN NODAK THAT WILL SEND A COMPLEX OF
TSRA INTO CENTRAL MN AFTER 6Z. HENCE BRINGING SHRA MENTION IN MUCH
EARLIER FOR AXN/STC. AS THIS IS GOING ON...WE SHOULD SEE
CONVECTION RAPIDLY EXPAND ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SODAK THAT WILL
BECOME THE PRIMARY TSRA COMPLEX...ENTERING WRN MN AROUND 9Z.
FORWARD MOTION ON THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE PUSHING 60 KTS...SO
IT SHOULD WAIST NO TIME IN WORKING ACROSS THE AREA...REACHING THE
TWIN CITIES AROUND 12Z AND PUSHING INTO EAU BY 15Z. IS POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT WIND GUSTS WITH THIS SRN SYSTEM. PUT SOME MVFR
CIGS IN FOR BEHIND THIS ANTICIPATED COMPLEX...BUT HAVE LESS
CONFIDENCE ON HOW EXTENSIVE ANY OF THAT WILL BE.
KMSP...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ON A SIGNIFICANT LINE OF
STORMS IMPACTING MSP DURING THE PEAK OF THE MORNING RUSH...SO
IMPACT TO TRAFFIC COULD BE SIGNIFICANT IN THE MORNING. WILL HAVE
TO WATCH HOW FAR SOUTH THE NODAK COMPLEX BUILDS...HRRR IS
INDICATING THE SOUTH END BEING WELL SOUTH OF I-94. IF THE HRRR IS
RIGHT...WE COULD SEE ONE ROUND OF STORMS AROUND 9Z...WITH THE
SODAK BATCH GETTING HERE CLOSER TO 12Z.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW TO W AT 5-10 KT.
WED...VFR. CHC OF TSRA. WINDS SE 5 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS N 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
519 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2015
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 518 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
Tonight - Monday:
Elevated convection redeveloping across northwest MO where airmass
is being feed by increasing feed of accas forming across northeast
KS. While the HRRR has had some issues its also been adamant that
scattered convection would from over northwest MO late this
afternoon and evening. SPC Meso Analysis depicts region of deep
moisture convergence and advection of better instability into
northwest MO to support the continued development. Isolated severe
is possible as 40kt 0-6km shear supports activity. Convection will
likely begin to fall apart as we head towards sunset and instability
begins to wane. Boundary currently over west central MO will
eventually lift north and into IA overnight allowing southerly flow
to reestablish itself.
Hot and humid air funnels back into the region as a stiff
southwesterly low level jet pushes in. Hot h7 temperatures in the
+14C to +17C range will effectively cap the airmass for most of the
day. Highs should rebound back into the lower to middle 90s with
hottest air over west central/northwest MO and eastern KS. Add in
surface dewpoints in the 71F-74F range and HI values will likely top
out around 105F. So issued a heat advisory for afternoon hours.
Fast zonal flow across the northern tier of states will allow a fast
moving shortwave to force a cold front south and east into northwest
MO by very late afternoon. Hot h7 temperatures will hold back
convection but operational models "cooling" at h7 by 00z Tuesday
suggest cooling due to convection. While convection will likely hold
off until Monday night will transition to that with a small window
of slight chance PoPs over far northwest MO.
Monday night - Tuesday night:
Aforementioned cold front will be the focus for scattered convection
Monday evening. Moderate/extreme instability and 0-6km bulk shear of
30-35kt will support a severe threat across northern MO down to the
MO River.
This frontal boundary is expected to stall across central MO on
Tuesday then lift back north as a warm front. Thus this boundary
will once again be the focus for a third round of potential severe
weather Tuesday through Tuesday night. Should see a 10-15 degree
thermal contrast across the boundary. High precipitable water values
during this period will support a continued heavy rain threat as
some training of cells is possible.
Wednesday:
The warm front is expected to lift north into IA and allow the cap
to reform and give us a chance to dry out. But the hot and humid air
is the trade off.
Thursday - Saturday:
The bouncing front is expected to head back south during this period
and in the vicinity of the CWA such that moderately high PoPs are
required. Extensive cloud cover and the rain cooled air should bring
reasonably cool air to the region, but at a cost...high humidity and
the threat of heavy rains.
Wednesday -
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
Vicinity thunderstorms currently keep bubbling up near the terminals
and will persist well into the afternoon hours. This will likely
result in a combination of VFR and MVFR ceilings as the storms move
through this afternoon with the potential for quick periods of IFR.
After the storms dissipate later today expect VFR conditions into
the evening hours before the strong winds ahead of an approaching
cold front advect some MVFR ceilings in late tonight. Ceilings should
clear out tomorrow morning as the gusty winds increase in speed from
the southwest.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Monday FOR KSZ025-057-
102>105.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Monday FOR MOZ002>006-
011>015-020>023-028>031-037-038-043.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Cutter
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
1230 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2015
...Updated Aviation and Mesoscale discussions...
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued just to the north of
the area through 5 PM. As mentioned in the previous update, the
bulk of the expected thunderstorm activity will remain to our
north, but a few storms will be possible across the northern
portion of the outlook area (mainly central Missouri from Warsaw
to Vichy and points north). Will maintain a limited risk for wind
and hail given available instability and adjust further as
conditions evolve. At the very least, folks in/around the Lake of
the Ozarks region should remain aware of the risk for lightning
this afternoon.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1135 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
Continuing to watch convection fire along a low level boundary
across central Missouri back into northeastern Kansas. This
boundary really does not look to move much today, as a result it
appears that the bulk of this activity may remain just to the
north of our outlook area, but certainly close enough to keep a
very close watch.
At this time, convection is discreet. Cell motion (as estimated
by 0-10km layer wind) is to the east southeast at about 25-30kt.
If a cold pool can develop, forecast system motion is more to the
southeast, so system organization will definitely bear watching.
Plenty of instability will be feeding the boundary today, with
shear increasing a bit as a shortwave passing to our north
increases mid level westerlies. Discreet storms look to be the
preferred storm mode heading into the afternoon. As a result,
lightning, hail and localized wind gusts are the primary concerns
with any activity that can get into the northern portion of the
outlook area. If a cold pool can get organized, the wind risk will
increase appreciably.
Otherwise, expect a warm and humid first day of summer. A near
carbon copy to yesterday with highs a few degrees either side of
90.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
It was a typical June night over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures had cooled into the lower 70s, under
mostly clear skies and light southwesterly breezes.
A complex of thunderstorms were ongoing across northeast Missouri.
This feature threw an outflow boundary to the southwest, which
was moving into central Missouri. Convection was not developing
along the outflow, due to dry air in the mid levels, and strong
convective inhibition present within the Ozarks lower trop.
The hi-res ARW and NMM suggest that convection will eventually
fire along this boundary by 9-12z this morning. The HRRR along
with several other models keeps the Ozarks dry today. Given the
00z RAOB from last night, we will keep the forecast dry through
today, for the exception of some low end pops in central Missouri.
Look for temperatures to warm into the upper 80s and lower 90s
today.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
The summertime high attempts to build over the nation`s midsection
Monday through Thursday. This will bring sunshine, humidity, and hot
temperatures. Look for temperatures to range from the upper 80s to
the lower 90s on an afternoon basis through Thursday.
The periphery of the summertime high will act as a storm track for
a series of shortwave troughs. This storm track will reside across
northern Missouri or southern Iowa, so we will need to watch any
convection that may attempt to sneak into central Missouri. Right
now we`re going to keep precipitation chances in central Missouri
very conservative through Thursday. All other locations south of
Highway 54 can expect hot and dry weather through Thursday.
By Thursday night or Friday, the summer high re-positions across
the Mountain West, forcing northwest flow and a cold front into
southern Missouri. This will not only cool temperatures off, but
also bring our next widespread chance for showers and
thunderstorms.
Both the GFS and the ECMWF suggests precipitation chances to
continue through the upcoming weekend. It`s a little ways out to
get too specific about details, but we`ll have some chances going
in the forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
Overall, VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours and
beyond. Complexes of thunderstorms to the north and south of the
TAF sites will produce variable cloud cover, ranging from diurnal
cumulus to cirrus. Southwest winds will be gusty this afternoon
and again Monday morning. Tonight, a strengthening low level jet
will produce low level wind shear.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...Gagan
UPDATE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Gagan
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
1136 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2015
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1135 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
Continuing to watch convection fire along a low level boundary
across central Missouri back into northeastern Kansas. This
boundary really does not look to move much today, as a result it
appears that the bulk of this activity may remain just to the
north of our outlook area, but certainly close enough to keep a
very close watch.
At this time, convection is discreet. Cell motion (as estimated
by 0-10km layer wind) is to the east southeast at about 25-30kt.
If a cold pool can develop, forecast system motion is more to the
southeast, so system organization will definitely bear watching.
Plenty of instability will be feeding the boundary today, with
shear increasing a bit as a shortwave passing to our north
increases mid level westerlies. Discreet storms look to be the
preferred storm mode heading into the afternoon. As a result,
lightning, hail and localized wind gusts are the primary concerns
with any activity that can get into the northern portion of the
outlook area. If a cold pool can get organized, the wind risk will
increase appreciably.
Otherwise, expect a warm and humid first day of summer. A near
carbon copy to yesterday with highs a few degrees either side of
90.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
It was a typical June night over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures had cooled into the lower 70s, under
mostly clear skies and light southwesterly breezes.
A complex of thunderstorms were ongoing across northeast Missouri.
This feature threw an outflow boundary to the southwest, which
was moving into central Missouri. Convection was not developing
along the outflow, due to dry air in the mid levels, and strong
convective inhibition present within the Ozarks lower trop.
The hi-res ARW and NMM suggest that convection will eventually
fire along this boundary by 9-12z this morning. The HRRR along
with several other models keeps the Ozarks dry today. Given the
00z RAOB from last night, we will keep the forecast dry through
today, for the exception of some low end pops in central Missouri.
Look for temperatures to warm into the upper 80s and lower 90s
today.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
The summertime high attempts to build over the nation`s midsection
Monday through Thursday. This will bring sunshine, humidity, and hot
temperatures. Look for temperatures to range from the upper 80s to
the lower 90s on an afternoon basis through Thursday.
The periphery of the summertime high will act as a storm track for
a series of shortwave troughs. This storm track will reside across
northern Missouri or southern Iowa, so we will need to watch any
convection that may attempt to sneak into central Missouri. Right
now we`re going to keep precipitation chances in central Missouri
very conservative through Thursday. All other locations south of
Highway 54 can expect hot and dry weather through Thursday.
By Thursday night or Friday, the summer high re-positions across
the Mountain West, forcing northwest flow and a cold front into
southern Missouri. This will not only cool temperatures off, but
also bring our next widespread chance for showers and
thunderstorms.
Both the GFS and the ECMWF suggests precipitation chances to
continue through the upcoming weekend. It`s a little ways out to
get too specific about details, but we`ll have some chances going
in the forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 618 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected. Low
pressure moving out into the central Plains will keep dry s-sw sfc
winds in place. Progged low level wind fields support a marginal
mention of low level wind shear again late in the taf period.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
1035 AM MDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.UPDATE...
CHANGES MADE THIS MORNING WERE MINOR AND MAINLY FOR COLLABORATION
PURPOSES. DID RAISE POPS A BIT OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST AS SOME HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS WERE INITIATING CONVECTION AGGRESSIVELY OUT
THERE. ALSO RAISED POPS SOME OVER THE WEST AS SHORTWAVE RAPIDLY
APPROACHING. EASTERN STORMS HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF BECOMING SEVERE
QUICKLY WITH DEEP CAPE AND STRONG SHEAR. THE WEST COULD HAVE SOME
STRONG STORMS TOO...BUT MAINLY ISSUE THERE WILL BE WIND WITH DRY
LOWER LEVELS. MOST OF THE WESTERN STORMS WILL TRACK NORTHEAST AND
SOME MODELS KEEP THE BRUNT OF THE ACTIVITY NORTH. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH IN TONIGHT AND THIS COULD BE ENHANCED BY
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH FOR STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS. TWH
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...
QUIET WEATHER ACROSS OUR CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AS WE REMAIN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...WITH CONVECTION AT
NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET STILL DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTHEAST FROM
NORTHEAST WY INTO SOUTHWEST SD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE
FEATURES OF INTEREST...ONE SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO OR AND ANOTHER IN
SOUTHERN BC. THESE WAVES WILL PARTIALLY PHASE TOGETHER AND BRING
US A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE STORMS IN OUR EAST THIS AFTERNOON
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A MILES CITY TO ALZADA LINE. MOIST
ADVECTION ALREADY OCCURRING PER SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW UP THE HIGH
PLAINS WITH LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING PWATS TO AN INCH IN SOUTHEAST
MT. WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SFC WARM FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
OUR CWA THIS MORNING. THOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BECOME WELL-
MIXED AND DRIER ACROSS OUR WEST AND CENTRAL PARTS...MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BECOME DEEPER EAST OF SFC TROF. LATEST HRRR RUNS
SEEM VERY REASONABLE IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION IN OUR FAR EAST BY
AROUND 19Z AS CAPES BUILD TO 1500+ J/KG. INSTABILITY AND PLENTIFUL
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR ARE SUGGESTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS IN THIS AREA
THROUGH AROUND 00Z...BY WHICH THE PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROF SHOULD
SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
MAIN THREATS BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A TORNADO EITHER ESPECIALLY IF
SFC DEW PTS CLIMB TO NEAR 60F. AGAIN THIS POTENTIAL IS IN OUR FAR
EAST AND STORMS MAY INITIATE AS EARLY AS 19Z.
OTHER AREA OF CONCERN IS OUR WEST AS SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT
INCREASES IN COMBINATION W/ A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. MAIN RISK IN
OUR WEST WILL BE WIND PER FRONTAL PUSH AND DEEPLY MIXED PRE-
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER...IE A COMBINATION OF CONVECTIVE AND
FRONTAL WINDS...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SMALL HAIL AS WELL. FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT LVM-3HT BY LATE AFTERNOON THEN BIL/SHR
DURING THE EVENING.
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT ALL OF THESE POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN HWO
AND GRAPHIC.
TEMPS TODAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S IN PRE-FRONTAL REGIME...WITH
HIGHS BACK DOWN TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S MONDAY. COULD SEE SOME
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND WEAKER STORMS IN OUR WEST TOMORROW.
ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD TO OUR SOUTHEAST BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS NEXT
AREA OF PV COMES OFF THE PACIFIC AND SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET
BEGINS TO ADVECT MOISTURE BACK TO SOUTHEAST MT. NO SEVERE WX
ANTICIPATED MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.
JKL
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD KEEPS AN UNSETTLED BUT WARM ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY A FEW DAYS LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY
INDICATED. MODELS SHOW EPISODES OF EASTERLY FLOW AT THE LOW LEVELS
DURING THIS PERIOD WHICH WILL PROVIDE HIGHER DEWPOINTS SUPPORTING
THE THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES DURING THIS
PERIOD IS LESS CERTAIN BUT HAVE THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED EACH DAY
AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH CAPE VALUES TO SEE IF SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE
PERIOD IN THE MID 80S FOR MOST PLACES.
MODELS SHOWING THE RIDGE BEGINNING TO ASSERT ITS INFLUENCE FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY OVER WESTERN MONTANA WHICH LOOKS TO DISRUPT
THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA. PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED WARMUP LOOKS A BIT SLOWER BUT STILL SHOULD BEGIN TO
APPROACH 90 BY SUNDAY...POSSIBLY SATURDAY FOR A FEW AREAS. WILL
SEE A DRYING TREND DURING THE WEEKEND. BORSUM
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INITIATE OVER THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN AFTER 21Z AND OTHER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NE ZONES...FROM KMLS TO KBHK.
THE STORMS OVER THE TERRAIN WILL PROGRESS E FROM 21Z TO 00Z
THROUGH KLVM AND KBIL AS A COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM THE N. HAIL
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS FROM KLVM TO
KBIL...WHILE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
STORMS OVER KMLS AND KBHK. STORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS
EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT DROPS S. WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT. THE STORMS OVER SE MT MAY CONTAIN
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING. ARTHUR
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 086 055/078 056/081 057/083 060/090 063/088 062/086
2/T 41/B 23/T 32/T 21/B 11/U 11/U
LVM 084 048/077 050/081 050/084 053/090 055/089 054/087
3/T 42/T 33/T 32/T 21/B 11/U 11/U
HDN 088 054/080 055/083 058/085 060/092 062/089 061/087
1/B 31/B 33/T 33/T 21/B 11/B 11/U
MLS 087 057/078 057/081 057/082 059/087 060/086 060/083
2/T 51/B 33/T 33/T 22/T 22/T 21/U
4BQ 086 055/077 056/079 056/081 059/087 061/087 059/083
2/T 31/B 43/T 43/T 32/T 22/T 21/U
BHK 083 054/075 054/078 055/078 056/082 059/082 056/079
4/T 52/T 23/T 44/T 33/T 33/T 32/T
SHR 086 052/076 052/079 053/080 054/087 057/086 056/082
1/B 20/B 23/T 32/T 22/T 22/T 21/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
211 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
MAIN HIGHLIGHT IS THE SLIGHT RISK AND ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM
RISK CATEGORY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO PORTRAY TWO ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST REGIONAL/LOCAL RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...AND AN INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AND GROWTH EXPECTED IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HRRR REFLECTIVITY
FORECAST SHOWS SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
MERGING INTO A COUPLE OF LINES/BOWING SEGMENTS 00Z THROUGH 05Z AS
THEY CROSS INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
DEPICTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 BETWEEN 05Z
AND 12Z MONDAY. MORE THAN SUFFICIENT CAPE/SHEAR FOR A PLETHORA OF
SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT. CAPE NEARING 3000 J/KG ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST WITH 65KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR. THIS WAS WELL ADVERTISED IN
PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND REMAINS WITH THIS DISCUSSION. LINGERING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY MORNING CENTRAL THEN TAPERING OFF
BEFORE 18Z. DRY WEATHER MONDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
THE CURRENT ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE PROJECTING QUASI
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT GIVING WAY TO NORTHWEST FLOW...AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CREATING
WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THOUGH THE MODELS BEGIN TO WAVER LATER IN THE PERIOD...NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE REST OF EXTENDED...AS A HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
CONUS SOUTHWEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THESE STORMS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS THE MAIN THREATS.
KISN...KDIK...AND KBIS WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF BEING
IMPACTED BY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TSRA HAS BEEN PUT IN THE TAFS
FOR THESE SITES. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAT A
THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT KMOT AND KJMS...THUS HAVE WENT WITH VCTS
FOR THESE SITES. THAT SAID MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT ALL SITES IN THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER 10Z MONDAY SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG COULD DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BRINGING
SOME MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS...HOWEVER HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP
CONDITIONS IN VFR FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE IS LOW.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...MM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1227 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
LATEST REGIONAL/LOCAL RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
NORTHEAST MONTANA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. LINE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BUT MOST LIKELY NOT REACHING THE
GROUND AS OF NOW. AN ISOLATED CELL/SHOWER WAS ALSO SEEN IN
SOUTHWEST WARD COUNTY. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS 60KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR
IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WITH CAPE AT 2000 J/KG. AWAITING STEEPER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST WITH ADVANCING
SHORTWAVES. LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONGEST REFLECTIVITYS
SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...WITH
SUPERCELLS INITIATING AND EMERGING INTO SEPARATE LINES AS THEY
MOVE TOWARD THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN 03Z-05Z MONDAY. HRRR
ALSO ADVERTISING ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL BETWEEN 03Z AND O6Z. THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SURFACE LOW SHIFTING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ACROSS NORTH/SOUTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 942 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
LATEST SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS EXPANDED THE ENHANCED AREA
FARTHER WEST. LATEST HRRR MAX LAYER COLUMN REFLECTIVITY VIDEO
LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO THE EVENT FROM THIS PAST FRIDAY. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE SLIDING OVER FAR SOUTHEAST BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND WESTERN ALBERTA ALONG WITH A 100KT JET STREAK.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES WERE NOTED EXTENDING FROM THE IDAHO
PANHANDLE ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA. AS MENTIONED IN THE EARLIER
DISCUSSION...AND LATEST HRRR...EXPECTATIONS FOR SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS BETWEEN 20Z AND 21Z WEST/NORTHWEST THEN MERGES
INTO A MCS/BOWING LINE SEGMENT BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z AS IT WORKS
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST NSHARP SOUNDINGS
SHOWS CIN ERODING COMPLETELY BY 20Z AT KISN/KDIK...AND BY 22Z AT
KMOT/KBIS.
HAVE COORDINATED WITH SPC AND WILL PERFORM AN 18Z UPPER AIR
LAUNCH. RAPID SCAN SATELLITE OPERATIONS IN EFFECT FROM 17Z SUNDAY
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. MINIMAL CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST AS THE
OVERALL THEME IS WELL CAPTURED AND REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY
THIS MORNING. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND OFF THE OREGON
COAST. SHORTWAVES TRAVELING AROUND THE BASES OF EACH OF THESE LOWS
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE ROCKIES TODAY...INDUCING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. KEEP ALERT TO THE LATEST WEATHER
CONDITIONS IF YOU ARE ENJOYING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TODAY.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE OTHER THAN
LOWERING SKY COVER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
IN THE LATEST SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS EXPANDED THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE STATE AND INCLUDED PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA IN AN ENHANCED RISK.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY
AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN WEST WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. THESE WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS AND LIFT FOR
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAP/NAM/GFS/WRF ALL INDICATE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY (2000 J/KG CAPE) AND SHEAR (50+ KNOTS) FOR
ORGANIZED SUPERCELLULAR DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONALLY...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A SICKLE OR SHARPLY VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH
HEIGHT. EVEN THOUGH LCL LEVELS VARY WIDELY FROM ONE MODEL TO
ANOTHER...GENERALLY THIS TYPE OF WIND PROFILE WOULD SUPPORT A
TORNADO THREAT...AT LEAST INITIALLY WITH SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.
THEREFORE...ALL TYPES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY (HAIL...DAMAGING WIND...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND A FEW
TORNADOES).
A VERY SIMILAR SET UP TO FRIDAY IS POSSIBLE...WITH ISOLATED CELLS
CONGEALING INTO A BOWING MCS BY THE EVENING HOURS. THE WRF
ACTUALLY HAS TWO SEPARATE COMPLEXES MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA...ONE EXITING THE AREA BY AROUND 7 PM AND ANOTHER MOVING
THROUGH CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT. THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH THESE
COMPLEXES WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION MONDAY MORNING IN
THE WAKE OF THE SHORT TERM SYSTEM...MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A
SHORT DRY SPELL AS HIGH PRESSURE TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN REMAINS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL JET
REMAINS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD DURING THIS PERIOD SO AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...BUT FOR NOW WE
HAVE A DRY FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT AND JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM FAR SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY AND
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A
BRIEF BREAK IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS GFS/ECMWF INDICATE SHORTWAVE
RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST AREA...AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT BRINGS AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO INCREASE BY THIS TIME SO CERTAINTY BEGINS
TO WANE AS WE MOVE LATE INTO THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS MODELS ARE INDICATING A BUILDING WESTERN RIDGE
BUT THE GFS IS MUCH SLOWER WITH AN UNSETTLED BEGINNING TO THE
WEEKEND. THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD BRING A DRIER WEEKEND...BUT NOT
COMPLETELY WITHOUT A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AS A NORTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS...AND SHORTWAVES ARE ALWAYS A CONCERN IN THIS FLOW.
HOWEVER...AREAL COVERAGE WOULD BE MUCH LESS THAN THE GFS
SOLUTION...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THESE STORMS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS THE MAIN THREATS.
KISN...KDIK...AND KBIS WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF BEING
IMPACTED BY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TSRA HAS BEEN PUT IN THE TAFS
FOR THESE SITES. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAT A
THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT KMOT AND KJMS...THUS HAVE WENT WITH VCTS
FOR THESE SITES. THAT SAID MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT ALL SITES IN THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER 10Z MONDAY SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG COULD DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BRINGING
SOME MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS...HOWEVER HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP
CONDITIONS IN VFR FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE IS LOW.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...MM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
629 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A MEANDERING EAST TO WEST FRONT WILL MEANDER/OSCILLATE
NORTH AND SOUTH. ROUNDS OF CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES MAY TREND
LOWER TOWARD THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
630 PM UPDATE...MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. REDUCED POPS ACROSS THE NORTH A BIT FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND LESS ACTIVITY THERE DUE TO DRIER
ATMOSPHERE. DID ELECT TO ADD IN A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE ON
MONDAY...WITH ACTIVITY STARTING IN THE MORNING...AS NEAR TERM
MODELS INDICATING POSSIBILITY FOR ACTIVITY IN CENTRAL INDIANA TO
MAKE ITS WAY/SURVIVE INTO OUR CWA BY MORNING. CONTINUED SLIGHT TO
CHANCE TOMORROW AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED GRADUALLY LIFT
BACK NORTH ACROSS THE CWA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
FAIRLY UNIFORM CU FIELD OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOIST BL
IN PLACE. REMAINING DEBRIS CLOUDS HAVE SHIFTED INTO SOUTHERN COAL
FIELDS AND CENTRAL VA. OTHERWISE...SWIFT MID LEVEL FLOW LEADING TO
A FEW GUSTY WIND REPORTS HERE AND THERE. LATEST RAP AND HRRR
MODELS BOTH SEEM TO ADVERTISE THAT THE BEST FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS
OF WV. MAIN AXIS OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE STRETCHES ACROSS
CENTRAL KY AND INTO SRN WV WHICH CORRELATES WELL WITH HIRES
MODELS...AND EXPECTED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. 88D RETURNS FROM
1820Z ARE JUST STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT IN KY...AND
VA WV BORDERS. FOR TEMPS...MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS MAX
TEMPS...LEANING A LITTLE CLOSER TO MAV NUMBERS OVER THE MET.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FIGURING THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT...WILL
GO WITH A WARMER NIGHT IN THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES. 925 MB WINDS
WINDS ON NAM ABOUT 30 TO 35 KNOTS VCNTY PKB.
AS IS USUALLY THE CASE IN THE SUMMER...TIMING THE FRONT SOUTH...AND
HOW FAR SOUTH IT MAKES IT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING IS DIFFICULT. WILL
NOT GO WITH THE FASTER 12Z GFS AT THIS TIME...BUT STILL PLAY UP
FAVORABLE TIMING FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. FIGURING 2500 CAPE COULD
DEVELOP...WITH SOME SEVERE CELLS POSSIBLE.
HAVE POPS LOWERING NORTH TO SOUTH...OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...AS
FRONT SINKS SOUTH.
NOT CONFIDENT AT THIS TIME...THAT THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL CLEAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...SO LEFT SOME 20/30 POPS EVEN DURING THE
PREDAWN/DAWN TIME FRAME FOR WEDNESDAY. WILL TRY TO KEEP NORTHERN
COUNTIES DRY A BIT LONGER ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE THE FRONT LIFTING BACK
NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WE CONTINUE TO RIDE THE RAIN TRAIN WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE OSCILLATING IN OUR
VICINITY. WITH THE 500 MB RIDGE OUT WEST...HAVE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
TRENDING TOWARD BELOW NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
REMAIN HAVE THE FRONT LIFTING BACK NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
SO WILL INCREASE POPS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
MOST SIGNIFICANT WAVE ACTION/500 MB TROF/ APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY...SO DESPITE BEING DAY 6/7 WILL INCLUDE SOME LIKELY POPS.
THOSE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HELD DOWN TOO.
USE WPC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FOR MAJORITY OF TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LEVELS QUITE MOIST THIS MORNING WITH 70 PLUS DP
VALUES STRETCHING UP ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. WE HAVE BEEN A LITTLE
SLOW TO SEE LIFTING OF STRATOCU DECK BY A FEW MORE HOURS. DEBRIS
CLOUD FROM PREVIOUS NIGHTS MCS HAS MORE OR LESS WASHED OUT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA....WHILE BL STRATOCU
REMAIN NORTH AND WEST. PUSHED FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER SOUTH AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS...AND BEST
INSTABILITY RESIDES. SFC FLOW A BIT GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. KEPT GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS FOR OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE
EXCEPTION BEING KEKN WHERE SOME BRIEF IFR CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE
EARLY MORNING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING...ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DIRECTLY HITS
AN AIRPORT THIS AFTERNOON COULD BRING IFR CONDITIONS AND STRONG
WIND GUSTS.
.AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... IFR POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ
NEAR TERM...SL/KMC
SHORT TERM...JSH/KTB
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...KMC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
445 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS... A MEANDERING EAST TO WEST FRONT WILL MEANDER/OSCILLATE
NORTH AND SOUTH. ROUNDS OF CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES MAY TREND
LOWER TOWARD THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
FAIRLY UNIFORM CU FIELD OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOIST BL
IN PLACE. REMAINING DEBRIS CLOUDS HAVE SHIFTED INTO SOUTHERN COAL
FIELDS AND CENTRAL VA. OTHERWISE...SWIFT MID LEVEL FLOW LEADING TO
A FEW GUSTY WIND REPORTS HERE AND THERE. LATEST RAP AND HRRR
MODELS BOTH SEEM TO ADVERTISE THAT THE BEST FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS
OF WV. MAIN AXIS OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE STRETCHES ACROSS
CENTRAL KY AND INTO SRN WV WHICH CORRELATES WELL WITH HIRES
MODELS...AND EXPECTED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. 88D RETURNS FROM
1820Z ARE JUST STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT IN KY...AND
VA WV BORDERS. FOR TEMPS...MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS MAX
TEMPS...LEANING A LITTLE CLOSER TO MAV NUMBERS OVER THE MET.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FIGURING THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT...WILL
GO WITH A WARMER NIGHT IN THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES. 925 MB WINDS
WINDS ON NAM ABOUT 30 TO 35 KNOTS VCNTY PKB.
AS IS USUALLY THE CASE IN THE SUMMER...TIMING THE FRONT SOUTH...AND
HOW FAR SOUTH IT MAKES IT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING IS DIFFICULT. WILL
NOT GO WITH THE FASTER 12Z GFS AT THIS TIME...BUT STILL PLAY UP
FAVORABLE TIMING FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. FIGURING 2500 CAPE COULD
DEVELOP...WITH SOME SEVERE CELLS POSSIBLE.
HAVE POPS LOWERING NORTH TO SOUTH...OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...AS
FRONT SINKS SOUTH.
NOT CONFIDENT AT THIS TIME...THAT THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL CLEAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...SO LEFT SOME 20/30 POPS EVEN DURING THE
PREDAWN/DAWN TIME FRAME FOR WEDNESDAY. WILL TRY TO KEEP NORTHERN
COUNTIES DRY A BIT LONGER ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE THE FRONT LIFTING BACK
NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WE CONTINUE TO RIDE THE RAIN TRAIN WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE OSCILLATING IN OUR
VICINITY. WITH THE 500 MB RIDGE OUT WEST...HAVE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
TRENDING TOWARD BELOW NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
REMAIN HAVE THE FRONT LIFTING BACK NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
SO WILL INCREASE POPS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
MOST SIGNIFICANT WAVE ACTION/500 MB TROF/ APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY...SO DESPITE BEING DAY 6/7 WILL INCLUDE SOME LIKELY POPS.
THOSE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HELD DOWN TOO.
USE WPC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FOR MAJORITY OF TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LEVELS QUITE MOIST THIS MORNING WITH 70 PLUS DP
VALUES STRETCHING UP ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. WE HAVE BEEN A LITTLE
SLOW TO SEE LIFTING OF STRATCU DECK BY A FEW MORE HOURS. DEBRIS
CLOUD FROM PREVIOUS NIGHTS MCS HAS MORE OR LESS WASHED OUT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA....WHILE BL STRATCU
REMAIN NORTH AND WEST. PUSHED FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER SOUTH AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS...AND BEST
INSTABILITY RESIDES. SFC FLOW A BIT GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. KEPT GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS FOR OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE
EXCEPTION BEING KEKN WHERE SOME BRIEF IFR CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE
EARLY MORNING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING...ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DIRECTLY HITS
AN AIRPORT THIS AFTERNOON COULD BRING IFR CONDITIONS AND STRONG
WIND GUSTS.
.AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... IFR POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...JSH/KTB
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...KMC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
441 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM TONIGHT ALONG A QUASI
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. THE
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY...
PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK AND ILL DEFINED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CONFINED TO SOUTHERN KENTUCKY AND WEST VIRGINIA IN AN AREA OF
HIGHER DEW POINTS AND INSTABILITY...NO CONVECTION HAS BEEN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT TODAY OVER ILN. EXPECT THE LACK OF
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING...THOUGH THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER. LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT
...THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT SOUTHERN LOCATIONS AIDED BY
FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY. SOME OF THIS
CONVECTION IS ALREADY EVIDENT OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA AND IT WILL
BEAR WATCHING AS IT MOVES CLOSER AS SUGGESTED BY RAP MODEL. LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S NORTH TO AROUND 70 SOUTH WILL BE A BIT
COOLER THAN IN RECENT NIGHTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOR MONDAY...A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM WESTERN GREAT LAKES LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THOUGH THERE
WILL BE AMPLE INSTABILITY WITH MODELS INDICATING UP TO AROUND 3500
J/KG CAPE...THE EARLY AFTERNOON TIMING OF THE WARM FRONT MOVING
NORTHEAST MAY MEAN THAT MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LIFT MAY NOT BE
WELL IN PHASE WITH PEAK AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. KEPT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN A NW-SE ORIENTED BAND LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ALIGNED ALONG THE WARM FRONT. THOUGH
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED DUE TO A LACK OF
STRONG FORCING AND WIND FIELDS...A FEW CELLS MAY BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE IN THE RATHER HIGH CAPE ENVIRONMENT...WITH DOWNBURSTS
POSSIBLY AIDED BY FAVORABLE DELTA THETA E.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT...A LULL IN CONVECTION EARLY MAY BE FOLLOWED BY
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD DEVELOP IN NORTHERN
LOCATIONS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S
NORTHEAST TO 90 SOUTHWEST. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT ARE LIKELY TO STAY UP
IN THE LOWER 70S DUE TO WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US WITH ACTIVE BAND OF
WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AND GREAT LAKES TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. A SERIES OF
PERTURBATIONS TO COME THRU THE WESTERLY FLOW WITH E-W SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATING NORTH/SOUTH ACRS THE REGION.
MODEL SOLNS GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH SFC WAVE TRACKING THRU THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT DROPPING INTO OHIO
VALLEY TUESDAY AND LAYING OUT E-W PARALLEL TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW
STALLING OUT SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER TUE NIGHT/WED. THIS FRONT WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.
THIS FRONT LOOKS TO FOCUS BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION ACRS SRN FA
TUESDAY AFTN INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THEN LIFT BACK NORTH LATER WED
INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SFC WAVE. ENHANCED CHANCE FOR PRECIP
LOOKS TO BE ON THURSDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SFC WAVE.
MID LEVEL FLOW AMPLIFIES AND BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY AS THIS SFC WAVE
SHIFTS EAST. FRIDAY MAY END UP BEING DRY BUT FOR NOW HAVE DIMINISHED
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES FROM VARIOUS SOLNS.
BETTER CHANCE FOR PCPN DEVELOPS SATURDAY WITH NEXT SFC WAVE PIVOTING
THRU GREAT LAKES. HAVE SPREAD CHANCE POPS BACK IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THIS CHANCE CONTINUE INTO NEXT SUNDAY WITH PASSAGE OF SFC
WAVE.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S FAR NORTH TO UPPER
80S/NEAR 90 SOUTH. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER NEXT FRIDAY/SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS FROM UPR 70S/NEAR 80 NORTH TO LOWER 80S
SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEW TAF FORECAST REMOVES THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AT ALL SITES. WHILE ISOLD/SCT STORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE...FEEL THE BEST CHANCE OF THESE WILL BE SOUTH EAST OF
ILN/CVG/LCK. THUS...RUNNING WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS AND SCT-BKN
CIRRUS THROUGH THE DAY WITH MODERATE SWLY BREEZES.
TONIGHT...MCS POTENTIAL STILL LOOMS COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL MS
VALLEY TOWARD THE LOWER OH VALLEY. THERE/S SOME CONCERN THAT THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF A POTENTIAL STORM COMPLEX COULD GRAZE CVG/LUK
AROUND 03Z TO 04Z...BUT FOR RIGHT NOW WILL JUST GO WITH MID CLOUD
AT THOSE SITES AND LET FURTHER FORECASTS DICTATE NEED TO MENTION
TSRA.
DID MAINTAIN MENTION OF MIST /BR/ IN MVFR CATEGORY FOR MOST SITES
AS FLOW BACKS/WEAKENS AND AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS
UNDER SCATTERED CLOUDS. DID ALLOW LUK TO DROP TO IFR FOR A FEW HOURS.
ON MONDAY...WARM FRONT RETURNS BACK NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH
INCREASING SWLY BREEZES AGAIN. IMPETUS FOR LARGER SCALE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE WEST/NORTH OF THE TAF SITES
THROUGH 18Z SO HAVE DRY TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS ON MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...BINAU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
231 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A MEANDERING FRONT WILL BRING ON AND OFF ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FAIRLY UNIFORM CU FIELD OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOIST BL
IN PLACE. REMAINING DEBRIS CLOUDS HAVE SHIFTED INTO SOUTHERN COAL
FIELDS AND CENTRAL VA. OTHERWISE...SWIFT MID LEVEL FLOW LEADING TO
A FEW GUSTY WIND REPORTS HERE AND THERE. LATEST RAP AND HRRR
MODELS BOTH SEEM TO ADVERTISE THAT THE BEST FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS
OF WV. MAIN AXIS OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE STRETCHES ACROSS
CENTRAL KY AND INTO SRN WV WHICH CORRELATES WELL WITH HIRES
MODELS...AND EXPECTED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. 88D RETURNS FROM
1820Z ARE JUST STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT IN KY...AND
VA WV BORDERS. FOR TEMPS...MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS MAX
TEMPS...LEANING A LITTLE CLOSER TO MAV NUMBERS OVER THE MET.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY. FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY
EITHER ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. FRONT WILL MOVE LITTLE UNTIL EARLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE MOVING SLOWLY BACK NORTHEAST.
AS A RESULT...ON AND OFF CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WITH WET GROUND IN PLACE...HAVE GENERALLY LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY IN THIS PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN OUR THINKING.
A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES IN THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PATTERN..WILL KEEP A FRONTAL SYSTEM MEANDERING CLOSE TO OUR AREA. IT
WILL DIFFICULT TO TIME THESE DISTURBANCES AND HOW FAR THEIR FRONTS
WILL GET...SO WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. IT
WILL CONTINUE WARM AND HUMID.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LEVELS QUITE MOIST THIS MORNING WITH 70 PLUS DP
VALUES STRETCHING UP ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. WE HAVE BEEN A LITTLE
SLOW TO SEE LIFTING OF STRATCU DECK BY A FEW MORE HOURS. DEBRIS
CLOUD FROM PREVIOUS NIGHTS MCS HAS MORE OR LESS WASHED OUT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA....WHILE BL STRATCU
REMAIN NORTH AND WEST. PUSHED FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER SOUTH AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS...AND BEST
INSTABILITY RESIDES. SFC FLOW A BIT GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. KEPT GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS FOR OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE
EXCEPTION BEING KEKN WHERE SOME BRIEF IFR CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE
EARLY MORNING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING...ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DIRECTLY HITS
AN AIRPORT THIS AFTERNOON COULD BRING IFR CONDITIONS AND STRONG
WIND GUSTS.
.AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... IFR POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...KMC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
126 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WORKING INTO THE REGION TODAY WILL BRING THE CHANCE
FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK AS VARIOUS DISTURBANCES AFFECT THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED DISCUSSION>>>HAVE DROPPED RAIN CHANCES A LITTLE BIT FOR
THE MID/LATER AFTERNOON PER SATELLITE TRENDS AND VERY SHORT RANGE
PREDICTIONS FROM THE HRRR RUNS SINCE 10Z. THINK IF ANYTHING
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON IT WILL BE 19Z-
22Z IN CNTL/SCNTL OHIO AND MAY BUILD BACK WEST A LITTLE BIT...BUT
DEARTH OF ACTIVITY ON A HUGE NUMBER OF STORM SCALE AND MESOSCALE
MODELS /AND SUBSTANTIATED BY LACK OF GOOD BOUNDARY LAYER
CONVERGENCE SEEN IN ANALYSIS/SATELLITE/OBS SUGGESTS ANY
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED/SCATTERED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION>>>FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL SQUARELY ON CONVECTIVE /AND
SEVERE/ POTENTIAL THROUGH THE PEAK OF THE DIURNAL CYCLE INTO THE
MID EVENING.
21.12Z KILN RAOB SAMPLED A VERY WARM LOWER TROPOSPHERE WITH 900MB
TEMPS TO 26C AND STEEP LAPSE RATE/MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ABOVE
THAT MORNING INVERSION. CONVECTIVE REMNANT CLOUDS FROM NIGHTTIME
MCS HAVE BEEN ERODING AND HEATING/INSOLATION IS OCCURRING BUT
THICKER MID/HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LOOM OVER INDIANA.
AMALGAM OF STORMSCALE GUIDANCE THIS MORNING POINTS TO WIDELY
DISPARATE SCENARIOS - AND THIS IS LIKELY TIED TO WEAK/NEBULOUS
FORCING AND EFFECTIVE OUTFLOWS FROM OVERNIGHT MCS ACTIVITY.
RECENT NCEP HRRR RUNS ARE ADAMANT THAT THE BULK OF THE DAY REMAINS
QUIET FOR THE ILN FORECAST AREA WITH INCIPIENT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT OVER KY ON LEADING EDGE OF DECAYED INDIANA MCS. 21.00Z
ARW-WRF WINDOW VERY SIMILAR TO THAT...AS WAS THE 21.00Z SPC/EMC
WRF. THESE DATA ALL SUGGEST A FURTHER SOUTH CONVECTIVE INITIATION
LIKELY DUE TO HANDLING OF MCS OUTFLOW/DEBRIS CLOUD.
CONTRARILY...21.00Z STORMSCALE ENSEMBLE FROM NCAR STILL POINTING
OF HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER SOUTHERN OHIO
IN THE 19-20Z TIMEFRAME /ALTHOUGH THIS FORECAST A MUCH MORE MUTED
VERSION OF ITS PRIOR FORECAST/ WITH A SCT-BKN CONVECTIVE LINE
SAGGING INTO NRN KY THIS EVENING. THE 21.00Z SSEO LIES MORE IN
LINE THE HRRR/ARW/SPC WRF - BUT DOES HAVE SOME PROBABILITIES OF
STORM INITIATION/SEVERE THREAT IN FAR SRN OHIO/NRN KY.
BOTTOM LINE - THERE ARE CONCERNS FOR BOUNDARY LAYER FORCING FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION AS SFC WIND FLOW DOES NOT APPEAR OVERLY
CONVERGENT. INBOUND /BUT ERODING/ DEBRIS CLOUD ALSO OF CONCERN.
NEW 21.09Z SREF CALIBRATED SVR PROBS HAVE BACKED DOWN NOTABLY OVER
THE FORECAST AREA - BUT ARE NONZERO.
CURRENT FORECAST THINKING THAT SCT STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AFT 18Z IN
SRN OHIO AND NRN KY ON ONE OR TWO RESIDUAL OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING ZONES. FORECAST CAPE/SHEAR SUGGESTS ENOUGH FLOW /0-6KM
SHEAR OF 25-30KT/ FOR MODEST STORM ORGANIZATION AND
DCAPE/DIFFERENTIAL THETA-E SUGGESTS A WIND THREAT FIRST...WITH
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGESTING HAIL COULD BE DECENT IN THE
STRONGEST CORES. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS WEAK THUS NOT EXPECTING MUCH
OF A TOR THREAT. ANY STORMS WHICH FORM WILL SINK E-SE TOWARD AND
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER THIS EVENING. NOT ENOUGH SIGNAL TO GO
ANYWHERE HIGHER THAN 40-50% ON RAIN CHANCES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONT WHICH DROPPED IN ON SUNDAY WILL START TO LEFT BACK AS A WARM
FRONT MONDAY. SOME SCT CONVECTION COULD START TO DEVELOP IN THE
CINCY TRI-STATE LATE TONIGHT ON THE FRONT AND WILL TRY AND BUILD
NE.
A STRONG LOWS PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RACE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. A CDFNT WILL WILL DRAG ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY AND WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF CONVECTION.
HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S NORTH UP
TO AROUND 90 SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US WITH ACTIVE BAND OF
WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AND GREAT LAKES TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS WEEK. A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS TO COME
THRU THE WESTERLY FLOW WITH E-W SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATING
NORTH/SOUTH ACRS THE REGION.
FRONT LOOKS TO FOCUS BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION ACRS SRN FA LATER
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY TO LIFT BACK NORTH LATER WED INTO
THURSDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SFC WAVE.
MID LEVEL FLOW AMPLIFIES AND BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY AS THIS SFC WAVE
SHIFTS EAST. HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FCST FRIDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
VERY HIGH. IF THIS DRY PERIOD DOES OCCUR IT LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED
WITH NEXT WAVE PIVOTING THRU GREAT LAKES NEXT SATURDAY. HAVE SPREAD
CHANCE POPS BACK IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S FAR NORTH TO UPPER
80S/NEAR 90 SOUTH. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER NEXT FRIDAY/SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS FROM 80 NORTH TO MID 80S SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEW TAF FORECAST REMOVES THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AT ALL SITES. WHILE ISOLD/SCT STORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE...FEEL THE BEST CHANCE OF THESE WILL BE SOUTH EAST OF
ILN/CVG/LCK. THUS...RUNNING WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS AND SCT-BKN
CIRRUS THROUGH THE DAY WITH MODERATE SWLY BREEZES.
TONIGHT...MCS POTENTIAL STILL LOOMS COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL MS
VALLEY TOWARD THE LOWER OH VALLEY. THERE/S SOME CONCERN THAT THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF A POTENTIAL STORM COMPLEX COULD GRAZE CVG/LUK
AROUND 03Z TO 04Z...BUT FOR RIGHT NOW WILL JUST GO WITH MID CLOUD
AT THOSE SITES AND LET FURTHER FORECASTS DICTATE NEED TO MENTION
TSRA.
DID MAINTAIN MENTION OF MIST /BR/ IN MVFR CATEGORY FOR MOST SITES
AS FLOW BACKS/WEAKENS AND AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS
UNDER SCATTERED CLOUDS. DID ALLOW LUK TO DROP TO IFR FOR A FEW HOURS.
ON MONDAY...WARM FRONT RETURNS BACK NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH
INCREASING SWLY BREEZES AGAIN. IMPETUS FOR LARGER SCALE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE WEST/NORTH OF THE TAF SITES
THROUGH 18Z SO HAVE DRY TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS ON MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...BINAU
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...BINAU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
1135 AM PDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.UPDATE...LATEST RADAR IS SHOWING RETURNS JUST NORTH OF CHEMULT
AND THE CURRENT HRRR RUN IS SHOWING QPF OVER NORTHERN KLAMATH AND
NORTHWEST LAKE COUNTY AND HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THESE AREAS STARTING NOW INTO THE AFTERNOON. LATEST SPS
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS LI`S NEAR -1 AND THERE IS SOME COOLING
ALOFT AND WEAK SHORTWAVES AND THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED
STORMS TO POP UP. -PETRUCELLI
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ285.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
409 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
OUR REGION WILL BE IN THE WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE
NORTHERN FLANK OF A MASSIVE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THUS AS COLD
FRONTS APPROACH THEY CAN RAPIDLY PULL IN SOME WARM MOIST
AIR...TUESDAY SHOULD BE WARM AS A WAVE APPROACHES AND PULLS IN 18
TO 21C AIR AT 850 HPA. LONGER TERM IS OPTIMISTIC THAT THE WAVES
SLOWLY CARVE OUT A TROUGH AND PROVIDE FOR A PROGRESSIVELY COOLER
AND DRIER PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FIRST ROUND OF WEAK SHOWERS MOVED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS WITH LITTLE AFFECT. RADAR SHOWS A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. TRIED
TO USE BLEND AND ADD DETAIL WITH HRRR WITH THESE FEATURES.
GENERAL MESSAGE GOOD CHANCE RAIN IN NORTHEASTERN AREAS 2 TO 3 PM
AS THE RAIN/SHOWERS ARE ON RADAR. A SECOND SHOT IN WEST/CENTRAL
AREAS BASED ON RADAR AND HRRR. HRRR QPF IS APPARENTLY GROSSLY OVER
DONE....3KM GRID SIZED THUNDERSTORM PRODUCES MORE QPF THAN A
SMALLER WEAKER ONE THAT TODAY MAY BE 1-2 KM LARGE.
BE HIT OR MISS.
SLOWLY DRY OUT AND MOSTLY CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE DIMINISHES AFTER
SUNSET.
&&
.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
DRYING OUT OVERNIGHT DEW POINTS SLOWLY DROP AND WE SLOWLY DRY OUT.
SHOULD GET MORE COMFORTABLE TOWARD MORNING. BRIGHTER TOO.
THE RIDGE AND HIGH PW AIR SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY...COOLER
DRIER DAY ON THE EDGE OF THE BIG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AT THIS TIME
SUSPECT RETURN FLOW AND SURGE HIGH PW AIR AND INSTABILITY WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL EVENING HOURS. SHOULD BE RAIN FREE ACROSS MOST IF
NOT ALL OF THE REGION TOMORROW UNTIL AT LEAST DINNERTIME.
RELATIVELY PLEASANT SUMMER DAY.
TUESDAY SHOULD BE TOASTY AS THE MOISTURE AND HEAT SURGE BACK IN...
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FAST ZONAL FLOW WILL BE THE PERSISTENT SYNOPTIC FEATURE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN U.S. THROUGH FRI. A HOT 594DM 500MB UPPER RIDGE
EXTENING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TO THE MID TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEY ON TUESDAY...RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO PA MON NIGHT/TUE. LOW PRESSURE WAVE
PUSHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES MON WITH INCREASING LLJET SHOULD KICK
OFF DECENT MCS TO OUR NW MON NIGHT...WHICH COULD SLIDE INTO NW
MTNS BY SUNRISE TUE. DECENT W/NW FLOW PATTERN COMBINED WITH
NOTABLE CAPE ON TUE /AS TEMPS SURGE INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S
ACROSS THE SOUTH/ COULD BRING ROUND OF TSTMS AND SCT STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS AS COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS CWA. SETUP IS GOOD FOR A
NW FLOW EVENT...THOUGH LOW CENTERED A BIT FAR TO OUR NORTH AND
DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION COULD DAMPEN HEATING. BUT
FOR NOW...SPC HAS MUCH OF CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR TUE.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES OVER MID ATLANTIC REGION MIDWEEK...WHICH
SHOULD BRING SOMETHING WE HAVEN/T SEEN HERE FOR WHAT SEEMS LIKE A
WHILE...A COUPLE OF DAYS OF DRIER WEATHER. TEMPS SETTLE BACK
TOWARD SEASONAL NORMALS.
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD FOR LATE WEEK AS SERIES
OF WEAK WAVES RUN OVERHEAD...BRINGING BACK DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS FOR LATE WEEK AND ESP NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEW TAFS REFLECT THE POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. MOST OF THESE STORMS WILL BE NO
SIGNIFICANT CONSEQUENCE. MAINLY VFR WITH SHORT PERIODS OF MVFR IN
A FEW SPOTS.
WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY BUT SHOULD SETTLE DOWN THIS EVENING. ANY
STRONG WINDS WOULD BE WITH A STRAY STRONGER THUNDERSTORM BETWEEN
19Z AND 00Z.
SLOW DRYING OUT WITH AREAS PATCHY MVFR WITH OVERNIGHT FOG/HAZE.
MONDAY LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET...SURGE OF WARM AIR AHEAD OF A FRONT
LATE IN THE DAY/EVENING COULD TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
THE WEST. THIS COULD BE VERY LATE IN THE DAY. WARMER HUMID AIR
COULD PRODUCE PATCH FOG TUESDAY AM. BETTER CHANCE SHOWERS AND
STORMS TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MON...VFR AFTER SOME PATCHY AM MVFR.
TUE...MAINLY VFR...MVFR PSBL AM FOG AND SCT SHRA/TSRA IN PM.
WED-THU...GENERALLY VFR AREAS AM MVFR IN FOG/HAZE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...GRUMM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
213 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
OUR REGION WILL BE IN THE WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE
NORTHERN FLANK OF A MASSIVE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THUS AS COLD
FRONTS APPROACH THEY CAN RAPIDLY PULL IN SOME WARM MOIST
AIR...TUESDAY SHOULD BE WARM AS A WAVE APPROACHES AND PULLS IN 18
TO 21C AIR AT 850 HPA. LONGER TERM IS OPTIMISTIC THAT THE WAVES
SLOWLY CARVE OUT A TROUGH AND PROVIDE FOR A PROGRESSIVELY COOLER
AND DRIER PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FIRST ROUND OF WEAK SHOWERS MOVED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS WITH LITTLE AFFECT. RADAR SHOWS A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. TRIED
TO USE BLEND AND ADD DETAIL WITH HRRR WITH THESE FEATURES.
GENERAL MESSAGE GOOD CHANCE RAIN IN NORTHEASTERN AREAS 2 TO 3 PM
AS THE RAIN/SHOWERS ARE ON RADAR. A SECOND SHOT IN WEST/CENTRAL
AREAS BASED ON RADAR AND HRRR. HRRR QPF IS APPARENTLY GROSSLY OVER
DONE....3KM GRID SIZED THUNDERSTORM PRODUCES MORE QPF THAN A
SMALLER WEAKER ONE THAT TODAY MAY BE 1-2 KM LARGE.
BE HIT OR MISS.
SLOWLY DRY OUT AND MOSTLY CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE DIMINISHES AFTER
SUNSET.
&&
.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
DRYING OUT OVERNIGHT DEW POINTS SLOWLY DROP AND WE SLOWLY DRY OUT.
SHOULD GET MORE COMFORTABLE TOWARD MORNING. BRIGHTER TOO.
THE RIDGE AND HIGH PW AIR SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY...COOLER
DRIER DAY ON THE EDGE OF THE BIG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AT THIS TIME
SUSPECT RETURN FLOW AND SURGE HIGH PW AIR AND INSTABILITY WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL EVENING HOURS. SHOULD BE RAIN FREE ACROSS MOST IF
NOT ALL OF THE REGION TOMORROW UNTIL AT LEAST DINNERTIME.
RELATIVELY PLEASANT SUMMER DAY.
TUESDAY SHOULD BE TOASTY AS THE MOISTURE AND HEAT SURGE BACK IN...
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAST ZONAL FLOW WILL BE THE PERSISTENT SYNOPTIC FEATURE ACROSS
THE LOWER 48 DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AND THE DRYING OF
SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. WITH A HOT 594DM
500 MB UPPER RIDGE CENTERED FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO THE MID
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY...RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE AND
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS BOUNDARY NOW APPEARS TO STALL OUT ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE PA/MD
BORDER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...GIVING SOME HOPE OF A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER TO AT LEAST NORTHERN PA.
HOWEVER...JUST A SLIGHT NORTHWARD OSCILLATION IN THE PATTERN WOULD
NUDGE MOISTURE AND SHOWER CHANCES BACK TO THE NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEW TAFS REFLECT THE POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. MOST OF THESE STORMS WILL BE NO
SIGNIFICANT CONSEQUENCE. MAINLY VFR WITH SHORT PERIODS OF MVFR IN
A FEW SPOTS.
WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY BUT SHOULD SETTLE DOWN THIS EVENING. ANY
STRONG WINDS WOULD BE WITH A STRAY STRONGER THUNDERSTORM BETWEEN
19Z AND 00Z.
SLOW DRYING OUT WITH AREAS PATCHY MVFR WITH OVERNIGHT FOG/HAZE.
MONDAY LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET...SURGE OF WARM AIR AHEAD OF A FRONT
LATE IN THE DAY/EVENING COULD TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
THE WEST. THIS COULD BE VERY LATE IN THE DAY. WARMER HUMID AIR
COULD PRODUCE PATCH FOG TUESDAY AM. BETTER CHANCE SHOWERS AND
STORMS TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MON...VFR AFTER SOME PATCHY AM MVFR.
TUE...MAINLY VFR...MVFR PSBL AM FOG AND SCT SHRA/TSRA IN PM.
WED-THU...GENERALLY VFR AREAS AM MVFR IN FOG/HAZE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER/MARTIN
AVIATION...GRUMM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
148 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
REMAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HOT TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
RETURN AS A STALLED FRONT REMAINS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK...THE HOT PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN AS
A TROUGH MOVES SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT SUNDAY...CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON TRACK THEREFORE NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE IMMEDIATE NEAR TERM. FULL FCST DISCUSSION
TO FOLLOW WITHIN THE HOUR.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
430 AM EDT UPDATE...CURRENT NEAR TERM FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. MADE
MINOR TWEAKS TO HR/LY TEMPS. ADDED AFTERNOON ISOL TSTMS ACROSS THE
WRN UPSTATE AND NE GA BASED ON LATEST CAM AND RAP TRENDS TOWARD LESS
CCL-LFC CIN LEVELS.
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFTS BACK INTO A MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME
CONFIG TODAY. SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL REASSERT ITSELF ACROSS THE SE
CONUS CREATING A DIFFUSE WIND PROFILE ALOFT. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW DEEP
NEGATIVE OMEGA OUTSIDE THE MTNS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LIMITED
AVAILABLE LLVL MOISTURE. YET THE OP MODELS ARE MIXED WRT TO AMOUNT
OF PARCEL DESTABILIZATION. THE NAM SHOWS A POTENTIAL OF THE SUBS
INVERSION BEING BROKE AND ISOL EXPLOSIVE STORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NON/MTNS. THE NAM ALSO HOLDS ONTO SOME MEASURE OF CIN ARND THE CCL THO.
THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND HAS UNBREAKABLE SBCIN AND NO POTENTIAL FOR
SIGFNT CONVECTION. WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE RAW MODELS FOR POP WHICH
KEEPS LESS THAN ISOL NON/MTNS ANS ISOL/SCT MTNS. THIS AGREES WELL
WITH THE SREF OUTPUT AND THE LATEST CAMS...BUT FUTURE UPDATES COULD
INTRODUCE ISOL CONVEC NON/MTNS. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...LIKELY M90S EAST AND U80S MTN VALLEYS. THE
BEST AFTERNOON TD MIXING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE ERN ZONES WHICH
WILL KEEP MENTION OF HI/S OUT OF THE HWO.
THE OVERNIGHT WILL FEATURE A QUICK REDUCTION OF DEBRIS CLOUDS AND
STEEP SFC-BASED INVERSIONS. MTN VALLEYS...MAINLY THE FRENCH BROAD AND
LITTLE TN...WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SUBJECT TO FG/BR ISSUES ARND
DAYBREAK...ESP WHERE PRECIP FALLS THIS EVENING. EVEN WITH GOOD RAD
COOLING THE ATMOS REMAINS RATHER STAGNANT WRT MIXING RATIOS...THUS
MINS WILL REMAIN A COUPLE CATS ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT SUNDAY...A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY. AN MCS
ORIGINATING IN THE UPPER MIDWEST MAY PASS JUST N OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT. OTHERWISE...ISOLD CONVECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED IN AND NEAR
THE MTNS IN LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD CONVERGENCE DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIODS. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WITH SOME HEAT INDEX VALUES
REACHING 100 TO 105 IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF MON AFTN.
STRONG UPPER HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON TUE AS THE BELT OF
BETTER WESTERLIES STAYS JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. 850 MB
WINDS WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY AND A PIEDMONT SFC TROUGH SHOULD
BECOME A BIT MORE PROMINENT. HOWEVER...MODEL PROFILES RETAIN QUITE A
BIT OF CAPPING AND NEGATIVE AREA ALOFT SO CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY BE MINIMIZED. WILL CONFINED ISOLD COVERAGE TO THE MTNS...BUT
TSTMS WILL BE STRONG ANY PLACE THEY MANAGE TO FORM. MAX TEMPS WILL
APPROACH 100 MAINLY ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 85.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM EDT SUNDAY...STRONG RIDGING CONTINUES ON WED BUT WITH A
POSSIBLE MCS TRACK SETTING UP IN THE WNW FLOW FROM THE MIDWEST TO
THE NC/VA LINE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE. THERE APPEARS TO BE A
TOUCH LESS CAPPING IN PROFILES...WHICH SHOULD PERMIT BETTER
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE DURING THE AFTN/EVENING. WILL FEATURE
A NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT IN POP WITH HIGH CHANCES OVER THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 NEARER ANY POSSIBLE MCS TRACKS
THROUGH WED EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF UPPER 90S TEMPS IS LIKELY WED
AFTN ACROSS THE SE HALF...WITH WELL ABOVE CLIMO MAXES/MINS
THROUGHOUT.
HEIGHTS SHOULD GRADUALLY FALL THU THROUGH FRI ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...BUT WITH THE REGION REMAINING IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD
OF ANY COLD FRONTS APPROACHING FROM THE N OR NW. MAXES/MINS REMAIN
10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO THU BUT THEN SLOWLY MODERATING WHILE STAYING
ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD
OVER THE DEVELOPMENT OF EASTERN TROUGHING BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS
SHOWS BROAD AND WEAK ERN TROUGHING WITH BETTER HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS MORE ROBUST EASTERN
TROUGHING WITH A CLOSED SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE TRENDED MORE ECMWF LIKE RECENTLY AND THE
FORECAST WILL LEAN IN THAT DIRECTION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A CATEGORY
ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH SATURDAY WITH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE PICKING UP AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES/ARRIVES FROM THE NW.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FCST
PERIOD ASIDE FOR POSSIBLE TSRA/FOG ISSUES AT KAVL. WINDS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY FCST CHALLENGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH FLOW
INITIALIZING NW...HOWEVER EXPECTED TO BACK SW WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO.
THUS...CROSS WIND ISSUES COULD ARISE AT KCLT OVER THE IMMEDIATE NEAR
TERM. OTHERWISE...SW FLOW WILL PREVAIL UNDER FEW/SCT LOW VFR CU AND
HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MODEST
DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN THUS KAVL TAF
FEATURES VCTS MENTION. FRONTAL AXIS TO THE NORTH IS PROGGED TO
ADVANCE SOUTHWARD WITH HIGH RES GUIDANCE FAVORING AN MCS ADVECTING
INTO THE HIGH TERRAIN LATE THIS EVENING. ALL SIGNS ARE POINTING
TOWARD EROSION OF THIS BAND OF CONVECTION THEREFORE NO MENTION IN
ANY TAF OTHER THAN SOME LOW/MID CLOUDS AT KAVL/KHKY. DEEP LAYER
RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ON MONDAY WITH THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING
BACK TO THE NORTH YIELDING RETURNING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND DIURNALLY
INDUCED CU.
OUTLOOK...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN DIURNAL INTO THE WORK
WEEK. AS A RESULT...THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA
WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN NC WHERE THE LEAST SUBSIDENCE WILL RESIDE.
MORNING RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG AND/OR STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE...
PARTICULARLY WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL THE PREVIOUS DAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
17-23Z 23-05Z 05-11Z 11-12Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 83%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...WITH YEARS IN WHICH THE
VALUES WERE LAST REACHED.
MONDAY JUNE 22...
AVL 94 1964
CLT 98 1956
GSP 99 2006
TUESDAY JUNE 23...
AVL 93 1988
CLT 98 1988
GSP 99 1988
WEDNESDAY JUNE 24...
AVL 94 1952
CLT 102 1930
GSP 100 1952
THURSDAY JUNE 25...
AVL 96 1952
CLT 102 1914
GSP 101 1952
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...CDG/SBK
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...CDG
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
256 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY ALONG A
SOUTHWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY
TO SKIRT ACROSS NORTHEAST ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING PER HRRR MODEL RUNS...AND HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FURTHER FOR
THAT AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG OR POSSIBLY SEVERE STORM WITH
DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL DUE TO THE VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE...BUT BIGGER THREAT WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND EAST IN
CURRENT WATCH AREA. OTHER CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST
ACROSS THE MEG AREA...AND THIS ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP INTO THE REST
OF THE MID STATE AS WELL. ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
12Z GFS/ECMWF SHOW UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND BECOME CENTERED
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASINGLY HOT
TEMPS WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S WEST OF THE
PLATEAU. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...HEAT INDEX
READINGS WILL RISE INTO THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE EACH AFTERNOON AND
BE CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN
500MB HEIGHTS INCREASE TO AROUND 596 DM. BY THURSDAY...GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
DEVELOP...BRINGING A MUCH HIGHER CHANCE FOR RAIN ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. HAVE
CONTINUED TREND OF GRADUALLY LOWERING TEMPERATURES WHILE
INCREASING POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 73 95 75 97 / 10 0 0 10
CLARKSVILLE 73 93 74 95 / 10 0 0 10
CROSSVILLE 69 89 71 90 / 20 10 10 10
COLUMBIA 72 95 74 97 / 10 0 0 10
LAWRENCEBURG 72 94 73 96 / 10 0 10 10
WAVERLY 73 94 74 95 / 10 0 0 10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHAMBURGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
135 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.AVIATION UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RULE THIS CYCLE...WITH A FEW CAVEATS.
VCNTY STORMS COULD AFFECT BNA/CSV LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MVFR EARLY MORNING FOG MAY DEVELOP ALL SITES BUT ESPECIALLY CSV.
WINDS COULD GUST TO 15 TO 25 THIS AFTERNOON BNA/CKV.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 940 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015/
UPDATE...
LATEST SURFACE OBS SHOW A VERY WARM HUMID MORNING ACROSS THE MID
STATE WITH TEMPS ALREADY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE 70S. DESPITE SOME CLOUD COVER...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
MID 90S STILL APPEAR REASONABLE WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING
OVER 100 THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CONSIDERABLE
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ONGOING...AND WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND SOME LIFT DUE TO A SHORTWAVE PASSING TO OUR NORTH...CONCERNED
A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY DEVELOP OR SPREAD OUT OF KY LATER
TODAY INTO THE KY BORDER COUNTIES AND UPPER CUMBERLAND REGION.
SOME OF THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM RUNS IN FACT DO SHOW SOME
CONVECTION SPREADING ACROSS NORTHEAST ZONES OUT OF KY LATER
TODAY. THUS WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE POP TO FAR NORTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. REST OF FORECAST IS
GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT.
SHAMBURGER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015/
UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION.
AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THIS TAF PERIOD WITH SOME MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO START OUT. SOME MVFR IVS IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE AT KCSV FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SW GUSTS TO 15-17 KTS.
UNGER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015/
DISCUSSION...
WITH TODAY BEING THE FIRST DAY OF SUMMER...MIDDLE TENNESSEE SURE
KNOWS HOW TO START OUT WITH A BANG...HELLO HEAT! A WARM AND MUGGY
NIGHT CONTINUES ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS EARLY MORNING AS BLOW
OFF CIRRUS FROM A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
INVADES THE AREA. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL DO LITTLE TO LIMIT HIGHS
TODAY AS PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL EXIST. HIGHS
SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S AREA WIDE WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES CLOSING IN ON 100F DEGREES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
ONLY DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HEAT WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY AS
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND HEAT INDEX READINGS
SURPASS THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE
THE MOST BRUTAL CONDITIONS AS FAR AS HEAT IS CONCERNED...AND WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF A HEAT ADVISORY IS NEEDED FOR BOTH DAYS. FOR
NOW...WILL COVER THE HEAT WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
CONCERNING THIS TIME FRAME AS TODAY AND MONDAY WILL NOT QUITE HIT
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THE UPPER RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS HEAT WAVE WILL FINALLY BREAK
DOWN ALLOWING NORTHWEST FLOW TO INVADE THE AREA EVER SO SLIGHTLY.
AS A RESULT...THE PATTERN OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THIS TIME ENHANCING THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL OCCUR CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.
REGARDLESS...WITH THE EXTRA CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION
AROUND...HIGHS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS UNBEARABLE...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS IN THE LOW 90S. NOTICE I SAID QUITE AS UNBEARABLE SINCE
NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE TYPICALLY BETWEEN 85-87F.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 73 95 75 97 / 10 0 0 10
CLARKSVILLE 73 93 74 94 / 10 0 0 10
CROSSVILLE 69 89 71 90 / 20 10 10 10
COLUMBIA 72 95 74 97 / 10 0 0 10
LAWRENCEBURG 72 94 73 96 / 10 0 10 10
WAVERLY 73 94 74 95 / 10 0 0 10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1219 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1048 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015/
UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES ARE RISING QUICKLY AROUND THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING.
CURRENT READINGS RANGE FROM 82-87 DEGREES. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 90S THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THE HOT
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY...WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDICES AROUND 105
DEGREES FROM MEMPHIS SOUTHWESTWARD. IN ADDITION...CAN/T RULE OUT A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ADD 20 POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
KRM
DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015/
EXCESSIVE HEAT IS THE MAIN PROBLEM OF CONCERN IN THIS FORECAST.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND HIGH DEW POINTS WERE HOLDING TEMPERATURES
UP INTO THE 70S THIS MORNING WITH LOCATIONS IN AND AROUND
MEMPHIS STRUGGLING TO DROP TO BELOW 80 DEGREES. SKIES WERE
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH RAIN FREE CONDITIONS.
THE HRRR IS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...THUS CONTINUED TO KEEP POPS BELOW
MENTIONABLE LEVELS ALTHOUGH COULD BE A STRAY SHOWER /
THUNDERSTORM. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH HOT AIR INTO
THE REGION WITH HIGHS A DEGREE OR SO HOTTER THAN YESTERDAY. WENT
AHEAD AND ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON FOR
SOUTHWEST TN INCLUDING THE CITY OF MEMPHIS...EAST CENTRAL AR...AND
NORTHWEST MS. IT LOOKS TO BE A BORDERLINE SITUATION THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HEAT INDEX READINGS NEAR OR JUST SHY OF THE 105 DEGREE
MARK...BUT PREFERRED TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND THUS
ISSUED THE ADVISORY. BIGGEST QUESTIONS ARE IF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL HAVE MUCH AFFECT ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES...AND HOW MUCH SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL MIX OUT THIS
AFTERNOON FROM DRIER AIR ALOFT. YESTERDAY...SURFACE DEW POINTS DID
NOT MIX OUT VERY MUCH. FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...LEANED TOWARD THE
NAM / MET GUIDANCE WHICH DID A GOOD JOB FORECASTING THE HIGHS
YESTERDAY. THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE SANDWICHED TODAY BETWEEN A STRONG
HOT UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED OFF
THE ATLANTIC COAST. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND
TONIGHT IN A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE TWO HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS
ESPECIALLY FROM EAST CENTRAL AR INTO NORTH MS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WILL EXPAND EASTWARD AND INCLUDE THE
MIDSOUTH. THIS WILL LEAD TO VERY HOT CONDITIONS EXPANDING OVER THE
MIDSOUTH WITH LITTLE IF ANY RAIN. H5 HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST BY THE
GFS TO INCREASE TO NEAR 597 DM TUESDAY. CONTINUED THE HEAT
ADVISORY MONDAY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST TN...EAST CENTRAL AR
AND NORTHWEST MS. THE HEAT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED IN
LATER FORECASTS TO INCLUDE MORE OF THE MIDSOUTH FOR MONDAY. IN
ADDITION...AS THE HEAT EXPANDS TUESDAY A HEAT ADVISORY MAY
BECOMING NECESSARY FOR MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH.
WEDNESDAY...THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK..THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH THE REGION MOVING INTO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH A DECREASE IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS UPSTREAM AS WE EVOLVE INTO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...BUT THIS IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME. THE
ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER ON THE POSSIBLE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT OVER
THE WEEKEND.
JCL
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. W/SW WINDS AT
10-12 KTS THIS AFTN WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AT KJBR. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING THEN INCREASE BACK TO 10 KTS BY 22/15Z.
SJM
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR CRITTENDEN-CROSS-LEE AR-
PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...NONE.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-PANOLA-
QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR SHELBY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
321 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...ONLY A COUPLE CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED TO THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE HOUSTON AREA. LOOKS LIKE SUBSIDENCE IS
A LITTLE STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED... BUT THERE IS STILL TIME FOR
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. DID GO AHEAD AND LOWER
THIS AFTERNOON`S INLAND POPS INTO A 20% TO 30% RANGE. ALSO SHOULD
KEEP OUR EYES ON DEEP SOUTH TEXAS STORMS CURRENTLY SURGING TO THE
NORTH...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY. LATEST HRRR RUNS APPEAR
TO BE PICKING THIS ACTIVITY UP...AND THEY KEEP IT ALL TO OUR WEST
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS. WENT AHEAD
AND ADDED SOME LOW POPS INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS SOME OF OUR
FAR WESTERN COUNTIES IN CASE SOME OF THIS HOLDS TOGETHER. APPEARS
THAT WE WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SURFACE HIGH THAT IS
CENTERED ALONG THE CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND WE WILL PROBABLY BE OK WITH GOING
WITH POPS AROUND 20%. BY NEXT WEEKEND... IT APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OUT WEST COULD HELP TO BRING A COLD FRONT
INTO MAYBE THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE...AND THIS FEATURE COULD
BECOME OUR AREA`S NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
42
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. IT WOULD BE MAINLY DRY GIVEN
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE RIDGE...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE ON OCCASION. 46
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015/
DISCUSSION...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
LATEST VISIBLE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING LOWER DECK HAVING MOSTLY
THINNED OUT WITH WIND PARALLEL LINES OF INSTABILITY CUMULUS
DEVELOPING. RADAR RELATIVELY QUIET WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
WELL WEST OF THE TAF SITES...AROUND PERIPHERY OF SURFACE HIGH.
WITH AFTERNOON HEATING EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED AND CHANCES OF TSTRMS
OCCURRING AT ANY TAF SITE FAIRLY LOW. WILL MAINTAIN VCSH AT NW
SITES FOR NOW...FROM KIAH ON NORTH AND NORTHWEST...CLOSER TO THE
PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND THE EXISTING CONVECTION...WHICH
COULD DROP BOUNDARIES LEADING TO NEW CONVECTION. WILL WATCH RADAR
AND SATELLITE TRENDS AND ADD TSTRMS TO TAFS IF NEEDED. REMAINDER
OF TAF FOLLOWS PERSISTENCE CLOSELY AS TONIGHTS PATTERN AND
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE LOOK SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. THIS WOULD
IMPLY MVFR CIGS FROM CXO ON NORTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT...AND
MAINLY SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS ELSEWHERE. CANT RULE OUT AREAS OF
BROKEN MVFR EVEN AT SOUTHERN SITES...KIAH ON SOUTH...BUT MODEL
SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW ANY DEEPER MOIST LAYER THAN OCCURED LAST
NIGHT. 46
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 75 91 75 91 75 / 20 10 0 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 76 92 76 92 76 / 10 20 0 20 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 80 87 80 87 79 / 10 10 0 20 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...46
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1226 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.AVIATION...
CEILINGS ARE SLOWLY LIFTING INTO VFR CATEGORIES AT THE PRESENT
TIME. CONVECTION FORECAST IS A BIT PROBLEMATIC AS SEVERAL THINGS
SEEM TO BE AT PLAY. MORNING ACTIVITY WAS PRIMARILY DRIVEN WITHIN
AREA OF LOW-LEVEL LIFT TO THE EAST OF A 700 MB TROUGH AXIS.
CURRENTLY ON RADAR...THERE IS SOME SORT OF BOUNDARY ORIENTED
ALMOST NORTH-SOUTH...LIFTING TO THE NNW. THERE IS NOT MUCH
ACTIVITY BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...AND IT IS DIFFICULT TO GAUGE HOW
MUCH REDEVELOPMENT THERE MAY BE LATER TODAY TO THE EAST. CURRENT
THINKING IS NOT MUCH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS GOING TO OCCUR AND
WILL JUST MENTION VICINITY SHOWERS OR THUNDER IN THE NEAR TERM
WITH NOTHING MENTIONED ALONG THE I-35 TAF SITES AFTER 00Z.
THEREFORE...WILL AMEND IF NECESSARY. TOUGH TO PIN DOWN TIMING FOR
DRT IF ANY ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR AND WILL AMEND IF CONFIDENCE
INCREASES FOR CONVECTION. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR CEILINGS IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015/
UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE
PAST FEW HOURS ALONG AND EAST OF THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS...WHICH IS
MOST EASILY SEEN ON THE 12Z 700 MB ANALYSIS AND IN WV IMAGERY.
BASED ON THIS MORNING DEVELOPMENT...WE HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
RECENT HRRR RUNS FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND QPF
TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WINTER GARDEN AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS
AREAS. THE FORECAST WAS JUST UPDATED FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS...
SLIGHTLY LOWER MAX TEMPS...AND TO RE-TREND HOURLY VARIABLES
THROUGH 00Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015/
AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 12Z TAF PACKAGE...
RADAR IS PRETTY QUIET AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME. EXPECTING DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON...MOSTLY IMPACTING THE
KDRT TERMINAL. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD REACH AS FAR NORTH AS
KAUS BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT THE MOMENT. HOWEVER...ISOLATED ACTIVITY
COULD DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON SO FELT VCTS WAS WARRANTED.
MVFR CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE SLOWLY TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
STRETCHES FROM NORTH TEXAS...SOUTHWEST INTO THE WESTERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU...AND CONTINUES DEEP INTO MEXICO. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE RAIN CHANCES TODAY. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST AREAS OF THE CWA.
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET UP THE ESCARPMENT IN THE TROPICAL
AIRMASS HAS LED TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT EARLY
THIS MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE ESCARPMENT EDGE. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE FAVORED LOCATIONS THROUGH SUNRISE. MODELS SHOW
SOME POTENTIAL FOR EXPANSION SOUTH AND EAST LATER THIS MORNING AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES...THEN POTENTIALLY CONSOLIDATING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST CWA...SOUTHWEST OF A KERRVILLE TO PLEASANTON LINE LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
FORCING FROM THE TROUGH AXIS. ENHANCEMENT IN THIS AREA POSSIBLE
FROM MID LEVEL VORTICITY ADVECTION PIVOTING NORTH INTO THE
AREA...AROUND MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SEEN OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL COAHULIA MEXICO ON SATELLITE AND ANALYZED BY MODELS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL POOLED AROUND 2.1 INCHES ACROSS
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST CWA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE MENTIONED
IN THE SOUTHWEST AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MODELS INSIST DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
EAST...ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...ALONG WITH MID LEVEL NVA. THE DRYING CONTINUES FURTHER
WEST INTO THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS IN RESPONSE TO
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF NUDGING WEST.
THIS WILL CONFINE POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY CLOSER TO THE RIO
GRANDE.
BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY AND MONDAY.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
BEEN IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AFTER DRYING ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS. THIS WILL LEAD TO
DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG
AND EAST OF I-35 BOTH DAYS. DRYING THEN TAKES PLACE AGAIN FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
TRYING TO EDGE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.
JUST BEYOND THE 7 DAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS SHOWN TO AMPLIFY
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...DEEPENING A TROUGH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND MIDWEST. THIS COULD PUSH A RARE LATE JUNE COLD FRONT
INTO NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE UPSTREAM
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT COULD WORK INTO NORTHERN
AREAS OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY AND/OR MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 86 74 91 73 90 / 40 20 10 0 -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 85 73 91 72 90 / 40 20 10 0 -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 86 74 91 73 90 / 50 20 10 - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 85 73 90 72 90 / 40 20 10 0 -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 86 74 90 74 90 / 50 40 30 20 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 85 73 91 73 90 / 40 20 10 0 -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 85 74 89 72 89 / 60 40 20 - 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 86 73 90 73 90 / 50 20 10 - 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 87 75 90 74 90 / 30 10 10 0 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 86 75 90 74 90 / 50 20 10 - 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 86 75 90 74 90 / 50 20 10 - 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
230 PM PDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
Westerly floe with several week disturbances will result in a
chance for showers and thunderstorms through about mid-week
across the northern mountains. Temperatures will remain warmer
than normal for this time of year. A strong ridge of high pressure
will build into the region by the weekend resulting in very warm
temperatures and sunny skies.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Monday night: Satellite reveals a weak trof along
the coast and an influx of mid and high level moisture under
broad southwesterly flow. A SW to NE ribbon of instability
stretches from south-central Oregon to Missoula, MT where we are
seeing scattered thunderstorms. Per latest HRRR and deterministic
models, this should remain nearly stationary...residing just south
of my Blue Mtns and Camas Prairie zones. We are seeing numerous
weak echoes north of this instability which is bringing passing
virga and sprinkles. There is still a small chance for an isolated
thunderstorm near the Cascade Crest with RUC13 data showing up to
800 J/kg sb cape along and west of the CAPE.
The coastal shortwave will track inland on Monday and along the
International Border Monday night. Surface based instability
Monday afternoon will keep a small risk for thunderstorms in the
Cascades then transition toward a nocturnal shower or thunderstorm
event as the wave tracks along the Canadian Border. This is no
slam dunk by any means but this is where models agree on the best
forcing. The NAM is a bit deeper with this wave but has little
support from the SREF. Nonetheless...we will need to keep an eye
on trends as the deeper shortwave could allow eLevated convection
possible into far southeast as well.
Temperatures the next 48 hours will remain mild with highs in the
70s to 80s and lows in the upper 40s to lower 60s. Winds will be
light. /sb
Tuesday through Thursday...Westerly flow will be across the
region with a couple of weak short wave disturbances moving
through southern B.C. Monday night/Tuesday, again on Thursday,
with weak riding on Wednesday in between systems. The models are
generating some Pacific moisture with both of these waves and that
will help to destabilize the atmosphere late in the day. Showers
and thunderstorms will be possible along and just south of the
Canadian border...and mainly tied to the higher terrain where up-
sloping flow will give a little boost to the lifting process. It
doesn`t look like any of these showers or thunderstorms will be
particularly strong, but enough moisture will be available for
brief very heavy showers at times. Otherwise sunny and warm with
temperatures 5-10 degrees above seasonal averages.
Friday and through the weekend a strong ridge of high pressure
will build into the west and will turn the weather very hot, very
dry and sunny into the first part of next week. As was mentioned
in previous discussions it`s gonna be a hot one. 850 mb temps
increase to 22-23C Friday and up to 28-30C by Sunday. This will
result in temps in the 90s Friday...mid 90s to just above 100 on
Saturday and scorching on Sunday with highs in the upper 90s to
around 105-107, this is about 20 degrees above normal. In addition
relative humidity will drop into the teens with several areas
drying out into the single digits...and poor recoveries on mid
slopes and ridges. The fuels that carry fire are already drier
then average and the hot dry conditions will dry the fuels out
further...to historic levels. Luckily not much wind is expected
under the ridge. Looking further out into the following week for
the last few days of June it doesn`t look like the ridge will have
any tendency to break down and the temperatures will remain just
as hot if not a few degrees hotter. I may have mentioned this
earlier in this discussion, but it`s gonna be hot. Tobin
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Middle and high clouds associated with a weak weather
disturbance moving up from the south will pass over the aviation
area today. A few midlevel cells will bring the potential for
isolated sprinkles but little in the way of precipitation. Isolated
thunderstorms will be possible near the Cascade Crest btwn
22-03z. Breezy northerly winds are currently coming down the
Okanogan Valley but should diminish aft 21z. /sb
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 56 82 56 82 56 87 / 0 10 10 10 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 52 81 54 81 52 86 / 10 10 10 10 10 0
Pullman 48 79 50 79 48 84 / 10 10 10 10 0 0
Lewiston 58 86 59 87 57 92 / 10 10 10 10 0 0
Colville 52 84 53 85 53 90 / 10 10 20 20 10 10
Sandpoint 46 80 49 80 48 85 / 10 10 10 10 10 10
Kellogg 50 79 51 80 49 85 / 10 10 10 20 10 10
Moses Lake 57 87 56 87 57 92 / 0 10 10 0 0 0
Wenatchee 64 85 62 89 65 93 / 10 10 10 10 0 0
Omak 55 86 55 88 56 92 / 10 10 10 20 10 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1131 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.UPDATE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING A PLEASANT AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
AREA. SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT SEEN IN THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD EVENTUALLY MIX OUT AS
DEW POINTS DROP WITH PEAK HEATING. THIS SHOULD PREVENT ANY SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT WITH PASSING 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM. SOME MIDDLE TO
HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL.
LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AS WELL...WHICH SHOULD
BRING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 70S. RAISED HIGHS NEAR THE
LAKE...WITH OFFSHORE WINDS LINGERING UNTIL LAKE BREEZE KICKS IN.
HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S INLAND.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING ACROSS TAF SITES. WEST NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
AT MADISON AND WAUKESHA...WITH WINDS BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT
MILWAUKEE AND KENOSHA WITH LAKE BREEZE. DIURNAL CUMULUS SHOULD
LINGER FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING. SOME MIDDLE
TO HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH SOME LIGHT FOG
POSSIBLE. SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY MONDAY...THEN VEER
SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY. THERE SHOULD BE A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX MOVING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH
STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. IFR VISIBILITIES AND MVFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME WITH ANY STORMS.
STORM CHANCES LATER IN THE DAY WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL DEPEND ON
IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE OCCURS AFTER MORNING STORMS MOVE OUT. SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IF THEY DO OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH IFR
VISIBILITIES AND MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
KEPT PATCHY FOG OVER THE NORTHERN MOST MARINE ZONE...NORTH OF PORT
WASHINGTON...PER AREA WEB CAMERAS. REST OF THE NEARSHORE AREA
LOOKS FAIRLY FREE OF ANY FOG. COOLER AREAS TO THE WELL NORTH OF
SHEBOYGAN AND OVER THE OPEN WATERS WILL HAVE DENSE FOG INTO
MONDAY. KEPT PATCHY FOG TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SIMILAR
DEW POINTS TO LAST NIGHT REMAINING OVER THE WATERS.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH PASSING
LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...SHOULD BRING INCREASING SOUTH WINDS
MONDAY...BECOMING SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY. THESE WINDS WILL
VEER NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE WEAKENING ON TUESDAY. GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPED IN THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
THAT SAW THE BETTER RAINFALL ON SATURDAY. WEB CAMS AND OBS CURRENTLY
SHOW CONDITIONS ARE NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY...PROBABLY
DUE TO SLOWLY RETREATING CIRRUS SHIELD. WILL CONTINUE TO HANDLE WITH
SPS AND MONITOR CLOSELY.
OTHERWISE LOOKING FOR QUIET WEATHER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS REGION. SHOULD SEE ANY LOW STRATUS/FOG
MIX OUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH ENOUGH SUN AND 925 MB TEMPS
SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S INLAND...WITH UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
CLOSER TO THE LAKE.
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF POTENT SHORT WAVE...WITH
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME...TRIGGERING A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. WILL BRING IN CHANCE POPS
INTO THE WEST BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG LEADING
EDGE OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL JET.
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW WILL START TO BUCKLE AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PROPAGATES EAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. WHILE MUCH OF THE
MID LEVEL LIFT FROM THIS FEATURE WILL STAY NORTH OF THE
REGION...IT WILL CAUSE A TIGHTENING OF MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND
INCREASE WIND SPEEDS INTO THE 70-80KT RANGE BY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
IT WILL ALSO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY ON MONDAY WHICH WILL HELP TO INCREASE LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE REGION. A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
JET WILL NOSE UP INTO EASTERN MINNESOTA/WESTERN WISCONSIN AROUND
DAYBREAK MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE MORNING. THE FORCING ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LLJ SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA ON INTO
WISCONSIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. EXACTLY WHERE THIS
CONVECTION TRACKS IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT THE CENTRAL TO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WISCONSIN SEEMS TO BE A CONVERGENCE POINT IN
THE 21.00Z MODELS. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
AND FEEDING INTO THESE MORNING STORMS...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF SOME SEVERE WEATHER IN THE MORNING HOURS AS THIS
FEATURE MOVES THROUGH. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS WITH THIS FIRST WAVE OF STORMS IF THEY ENTER THE REGION.
THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE AFTERNOON AND THE SECOND ROUND OF
CONVECTION WHICH IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE 21.00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL ARE CONSISTENT WITH TAKING THE
SURFACE LOW NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE UP OF MICHIGAN WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT ANGLING DOWN TOWARD EASTERN IOWA BY 00Z
TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD FIRMLY PUT SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN INTO THE
WARM SECTOR THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. A WARM LAYER AROUND
700MB SHOULD KEEP SOUTHERN WISCONSIN CAPPED OFF THROUGH THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON AND ALLOW FOR THE ENVIRONMENT TO BECOME
HIGHLY UNSTABLE AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 80S AND DEW
POINTS RISE TO THE LOW 70S. SB/MLCAPE SHOULD APPROACH 4000 J/KG
BASED ON MODIFIED 21.00Z NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS WHICH ARE STILL
PRODUCING TOO HIGH OF SFC DEW POINTS OF AROUND 77-80F. THIS CAP
SHOULD SHIFT TO THE EAST BY MID AFTERNOON AND ALLOW FOR CONVECTION
TO INITIATE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 0-6KM SHEAR LOOKS VERY FAVORABLE
FOR ORGANIZING CONVECTION...BUT DOES LOOK FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
WITH LITTLE VEERING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST SURFACE WINDS
GOING UP TO WESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS. THE ONLY SOURCE FOR SOME
BETTER LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLIES WOULD BE IF THERE IS ANY LEFTOVER
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION THOUGH THE
INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY WIPE ANY OF THIS OUT. THE
0-6KM SHEAR VECTOR DOES ANGLE ABOUT 45 DEGREES OFF OF THE
BOUNDARY...SO SOME OF THE INITIAL CONVECTION COULD START OUT AS
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS BEFORE MERGING INTO A SQUALL LINE AS THE FRONT
SWINGS THROUGH. 0-1KM WIND SHEAR DOES LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT TORNADO DEVELOPMENT...BUT SEEMS TO BE ON THE DECLINE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE LLJ SHIFTS EAST. OVERALL...QUITE A
BIT OF FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR A SEVERE WEATHER
OUTBREAK...BUT ALSO STILL SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING STORM
EVOLUTION...HOW FAST CONVECTION INITIATES ONCE THE CAP SHIFTS
EAST...AND HOW BIG IS THE TORNADO THREAT.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT LINGERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...BUT STARTS
TO BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO ANY QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS THAT PROPAGATE THROUGH THE FLOW. THE MAIN SURFACE
WARM/STATIONARY FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE
REGION...BUT COULD LIFT NORTH WITH ANY SYSTEM THAT MOVES IN.
TRYING TO TIME DOWN ANY OF THESE SYSTEM IS TOUGH AT THIS
POINT...THOUGH THE 21.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM DO TRY AND DEVELOP SOME
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY SEASONAL WITH THE REGION STAYING MAINLY
ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
SEEING PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG AND IFR CIGS IN FAR SOUTH
CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST LOCATIONS THAT HAVE ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM SATURDAY RAINS. LOWER CLOUD COVER BEING REVEALED ON SATELLITE
FOG PRODUCT BELOW SLOWLY DEPARTING CIRRUS SHIELD SHOWS HOW PATCHY IT
CURRENTLY IS. SREF VSBY PROBABILITY FORECASTS HANDLING THE CURRENT
SITUATION BETTER THAN THE MORE WIDESPREAD HRRR SO NOT EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE EVERYWHERE.WILL MONITOR CLOSELY...BUT
EXPECT ONLY LOCAL IFR VSBYS/CIGS THAT WILL MIX OUT BY MID MORNING.
THEN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. WARM AIR
ADVECTION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO WESTERN
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z MONDAY...WARRANTING NO MORE THAN A
PROB30 AT KMSN AND NOTHING EAST UNTIL AFTER 12Z.
MARINE...
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO LINGER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH DEW
POINTS JUST HIGH ENOUGH OVER THE LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPERATURES.
NOT EXPECTING ANY DENSE FOG AT THIS TIME.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HALBACH