Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/19/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
945 AM MST WED JUN 17 2015
.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST OF
TUCSON INTO THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH VERY HOT
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS WEEKEND. SOME INCREASE
IN MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED CLEAR SKIES
PREVAIL ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY AT THIS TIME...WITH A FEW TO
SCATTERED CIRRIFORM CLOUDS ELSEWHERE ACROSS SE ARIZONA. THE BULK OF
THESE CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO FROM TUCSON
SWWD INTO NWRN SONORA. A SOMEWHAT MOIST REGIME CONTINUES ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH DEWPOINTS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS VALID 16Z RANGING FROM THE
MID 40S-LOWER 50S. THESE TEMPS WERE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED VERSUS 24
HOURS AGO. SURFACE TEMPS VALID 16Z WERE NEARLY 2-4 DEGS F LOWER
VERSUS THIS TIME TUE. 17/12Z KTWC SOUNDING PRECIP WATER VALUE OF
0.95 INCH WAS NEARLY 0.10 INCH HIGHER VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. THE
ENVIRONMENT WAS MODESTLY UNSTABLE AS PER VARIOUS STABILITY INDICES.
17/15Z RUC HRRR DEPICTS THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
OCCUR ON THE CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS GENERALLY BETWEEN 18Z-19Z TODAY.
THESE PRECIP ECHOES ARE THEN PROGGED TO MOVE SWWD AND INTO THE
VICINITY OF DOUGLAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIP IS THEN DEPICTED TO
DIMINISH QUICKLY ACROSS FAR SERN SECTIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING.
AT ANY RATE...GIVEN THE TRAJECTORY OF THESE CELLS AS PER THE RUC
HRRR...AND THE SEVERE WIND GUST OF 50 KTS RECORDED AT THE KDUG ASOS
LAST EVENING...AM CONCERNED THAT A SIMILAR EVENT MAY HAPPEN DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE POTENTIAL CERTAINLY EXISTS FOR BRIEF WIND
GUSTS AT LEAST IN THE 35-45 KT RANGE WITH ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS THAT
DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE...THE MAIN EMPHASIS FOR THIS FORECAST AREA TODAY...AND
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...IS DAYTIME TEMPS THAT WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. ASIDE FROM THE ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS FAR
SERN SECTIONS INTO THIS EVENING...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU
SUN. PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THROUGH 18/18Z.
EXPECT ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA SE OF KTUS DEVELOPING AROUND 18Z TODAY
AND CONTINUING INTO THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MAINLY OCCUR
FROM NEAR KFHU EASTWARD TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...INCLUDING KDUG.
THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 KTS. ANY -TSRA/-SHRA SHOULD
END BY 18/06Z. OTHERWISE...A FEW TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN CLOUDS
AROUND 8-12K FT AGL WILL PREVAIL INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/NWLY AT 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS.
SURFACE WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS AT OTHER TIMES. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN COCHISE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON.
STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 5 TO 15 PERCENT. EXPECT TERRAIN
DRIVEN WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON GUSTS DUE TO
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING. PERIODS OF HAINES 6 CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEN...A MOISTURE
INCREASE WILL RESULT IN RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TO MAINLY EASTERN
AREAS NEXT TUESDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 17/00Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS
SHOW THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS NOSING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN ARIZONA. PLENTY OF
DRY MID TO UPPER LEVEL AIR REMAINS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AND INTO MOST OF ARIZONA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE WHERE HIGHER MOISTURE LINGERS
ACROSS THE REGION AND INTO A LARGE PART OF OLD AND NEW MEXICO.
THE SATELLITE DERIVED BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS
VALUES OF AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...
WITH VALUES GENERALLY RANGING FROM 0.6 - 0.8 INCHES ACROSS MY
FORECAST AREA AND WELL OVER AN INCH TO OUR EAST AND SOUTH...WITH
VALUES EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES JUST SOUTH OF COCHISE COUNTY IN
NORTHEAST SONORA. YESTERDAYS 17/00Z KTWC SOUNDING SHOWED A PW OF
0.88 INCHES. THE LATEST GPS PW VALUES FROM THE U OF A INDICATE THAT
SIMILAR READINGS CONTINUE AT THIS HOUR. MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR TUCSON
SHOW PW`S DROPPING SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 0.6 -0.7 INCHES BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PUSH IN FROM THE
WEST TODAY...BRINGING THE DRIER AIR JUST TO OUR WEST FARTHER EAST.
HOWEVER...AS THIS OCCURS...MOISTURE WILL STILL BE JUST TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST AND I CAN`T RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS THE
EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTION OF MY FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY AFTER THE FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY YESTERDAY. SO...I KEPT SINGLE
DIGIT `SILENT` POPS ALONG THE BORDER WITH NEW MEXICO AND THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER ADJACENT TO COCHISE COUNTY...BUT ALSO KEPT
ISOLATED ACTIVITY FOR THE DOUGLAS AND CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS OF EAST
CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS AGREES WITH THE
MOS NUMBERS FROM THE GFS AND NAM FOR DOUGLAS.
OUR NEXT PROBLEM OF THE DAY CONTINUES TO BE THE VERY HOT
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY TO OUR WEST
EVENTUALLY SHIFTS TO OVERHEAD AND WE HEAT UP EVEN MORE. LOCAL STUDY
CORRELATING HIGH TEMPS WITH 850-700MB THICKNESS VALUES INDICATES 111
DEGS FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR TUCSON. MEANWHILE...MOS
GUIDANCE NUMBERS FROM BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW 110 DEGS FOR FRIDAY...
WHILE EURO REFLECTS THE SAME FOR THURSDAY AS WELL. BASED ON
THIS...DECIDED TO GO WITH 110 DEGS AT TUCSON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. I EVEN INCREASED HIGHS A BIT FOR TODAY
TO 109 DEGS FOR TUCSON AND THE SAME FOR THURSDAY.
BY SUNDAY THE HIGH WILL BE JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST OVER NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MARCHING WEST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND
WEST TEXAS THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING OVER THAT GENERAL
VICINITY LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS
MOISTURE WILL BE JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST. FOR NOW JUST EXPECT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY
BETWEEN TUCSON AND THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.
FOR TUCSON...HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY 8 TO 10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN 3 TO 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL THEREAFTER. LOW
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 7 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
DISCUSSION/AVIATION...FRANCIS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
FIRE WEATHER...FRENCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
908 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 908 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2015
UPDATED TO END SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH 310 FOR BACA COUNTY. KEPT
ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS AND PLAINS THROUGH MIDNIGHT
WITH ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS
AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN FRONT RANGE ATTM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2015
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVED THRU MUCH OF THE SERN PLAINS TODAY AND
IS SITTING OVR THE SE CORNER OF THE STATE. BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY...DEW POINTS ARE MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPR 50S...AND
WARMING HAS BEEN SLOWED. CONVECTION HAS BEEN VERY LIMITED SO FAR
THIS AFTERNOON... WITH JUST SOME ISOLD STORMS OVR THE SRN MTNS.
SPC MESO ANALYSIS INDICATES CAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG OVR A
GOOD SHARE OF THE SERN PLAINS...NOT INCLUDING LAS ANIMAS COUNTY.
0-6KM SHEAR VALUES ARE ABOUT 40 KTS NR THE KS BORDER. WITH THE
BOUNDARY SITTING OVR THE SERN CORNER OF THE STATE...IT WL SERVE AS
FOCUS FOR TSTMS DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS AREA WL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS AND THUS A SEVERE TSTM WATCH WL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR BACA COUNTY. THE HRRR SHOWS THE BEST CHANCES FOR TSTMS
OVR THE SERN CORNER INTO EARLY EVENING AND THEN MOVING SOUTH OF
THE BORDER. IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS...THE HRRR
ALSO SHOWS TSTMS ALONG THE ERN MTNS WORKING THEIR WAY EASTWARD.
VERY LITTLE CHANCE FOR PCPN IS EXPECTED OVR WRN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.
ON FRI A WEAK UPR RIDGE WL BE OVR THE AREA...WITH CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO BE A BIT DRIER. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION SHOULD BE ISOLD
AND MAINLY CONFINED TO OVR AND NR THE MTNS AND MAYBE ACRS THE SRN
BORDER AREA IN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY. H7 TEMPS ACRS THE FORECAST AREA
FRI AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM ABOUT 17C-20C. AFTERNOON
HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 90S ACRS THE SERN PLAINS AND IN THE 80S OVR
THE HIGH VALLEYS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2015
...HOT AND DRY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY...
LOOKS LIKE A STABLE SUMMER PATTERN IS HERE TO STAY. A STRONG H5 HIGH
WILL BUILD OVER SRN CA THIS WEEKEND AND THEN DRIFT SLOWLY EWD OVER
NRN NM EARLY NEXT WEEK. H7 TEMPS WILL CLIMB FROM AROUND 16 DEG C
EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO 20 DEGREES OR MORE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. DURING THIS TIME...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF CONVECTION WITH VERY DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE SW. CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME LOCAL BUILD-UPS OVR THE MTS...AND MAYBE SOME VIRGA...BUT
MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL BE TOUGH TO COME BY. SO...HAVE DROPPED POPS
BELOW MENTIONABLE THRESHOLDS...MAINTAINING ONLY SINGLE DIGIT POPS
ON A DIURNAL BASIS OVER THE MTS. MOS TEMPS REMAIN AT 100 DEGREES OR
HIGHER FOR THE PLAINS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP TEMPS
OVER THE LOWER ARKANSAS JUST BELOW 100 SINCE SURFACE DEWS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY HIGH AND THIS MAY CUT THE HIGH END OFF JUST A BIT. BUT IT
WILL BE HOT. HOT AND DRY.
BY WED AND BEYOND...SOME DIFFERENCES BETWN THE GFS AND ECMWF AS THE
FORMER REBUILDS THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE DESERT SW WHILE THE LATTER
BREAKS THINGS DOWN A BIT MORE. BOTH MODELS BRING IN A BIT MORE
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...WHICH SHOULD BRING BACK DIURNAL
SHOWERS/STORMS AND HOLD HIGH TEMPS DOWN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS.
ENSEMBLE BASED TEMPS AND POPS LOOK REASONABLE IN THE EXTENDED...AS WE
SLOWLY HEAD TOWARD MORE OF A MID-SUMMER REGIME WITH THE MONSOON RIGHT
AROUND THE CORNER. ROSE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
SOME SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY MOVE INTO THE VCNTY OF KCOS AND KPUB
THIS EVENING.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
307 PM MDT WED JUN 17 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM MDT WED JUN 17 2015
A MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE IS STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND
TO PRODUCE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. SOME CAPPING IN
THE MID LEVELS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE HRRR DOES SHOW THE STORMS
MOVING INTO THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS LATE THIS AFTN
AND EVENING. BEST CHC OF SVR STORMS WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF
DENVER...STILL ENOUGH CAPE/SHEAR TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS. OVERALL
COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. ON THURSDAY...HOTTER AND
DRIER IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO
COLORADO FM THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE FLOW ALOFT WEAKENING. OVERALL
TSTM COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM MDT WED JUN 17 2015
UPPER RIDGING IS PROGGED OVER COLORADO FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD TOO. THE FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO BE WEAK AND
NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY. THERE IS BENIGN SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY
ON THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL ADHERE TO NORMAL DIURNAL
PATTERNS FOR THE MOST PART. THERE IS SOME STRONGER NORTHEASTERLIES
ON SATURDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT MAY GET INTO THE LOWER
FOOTHILLS. FOR MOISTURE...THERE IS SOME THURSDAY EVENING...THEN IT
DRIES OUT FROM FRIDAY ONWARD. THE QPF FIELDS HAVE A BIT OF
MEASURABLE RAINFALL FOR THE CWA THURSDAY EVENING...THE MOST OVER
THE FAR EAST. THERE IS VERY LITTLE NO RAINFALL PROGGED THURSDAY
OVERNIGHT THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING. WILL GO WITH MINIMAL POPS
THURSDAY EVENING...THEN DRY FOR THE CWA THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY
MORNING. FOR TEMPERATURES...FRIDAY`S HIGHS LOOK TO BE 2-4 C WARMER
THAN THURSDAY`S. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE FIRST 90 DEGREE READING OF
2015. SATURDAY`S HIGHS ARE A TAD COOLER. FOR THE LATER DAYS...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THERE IS MORE UPPER RIDGING THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE FLOW ALOFT STAYS PRETTY WEAK...BUT IT DOES BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY IN DIRECTION BY MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE
ABOVE NORMALS AND THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 222 PM MDT WED JUN 17 2015
VFR CIGS/VSBYS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BEST CHC OF TSTMS WILL
OCCUR IN THE 22-02Z PERIOD. BRIEF BKN CIGS 060-070KFT AGL IF ONE
PASSES OVERHEAD...BUT VCTS WILL SUFFICE AT THIS TIME. TYPICAL
DIURNAL WIND PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 222 PM MDT WED JUN 17 2015
OVERALL THREAT WILL BE LOW TODAY FOR STORM TO PRODUCE FLASH
FLOODING...WITH THE STORMS STILL MOVING AT A FAIRLY DECENT RATE.
MAIN CHANGE TO THE HIGHLIGHTS WAS TO EXTEND THE FLOOD WARNING
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON...FOR THE SOUTH PLATTE IN EAST CENTRAL
PARK/SOUTHWESTERN DOUGLAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL JEFFERSON
COUNTIES...FURTHER DOWNSTREAM TO CHEESMAN RESERVOIR TO INCLUDE
ADDITIONAL CAMPGROUNDS IMPACTED BY FLOODWATERS. NO CHANGES TO THE
REST OF THE ONGOING FLOOD WARNINGS ALONG THE SOUTH PLATTE.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...COOPER
HYDROLOGY...COOPER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
948 AM MDT WED JUN 17 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 905 AM MDT WED JUN 17 2015
NOT MUCH TO ADJUST IN THE SHORT TERM. LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS TO
TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. STILL SUFFICIENT CAPE/SHEAR FOR A SEVERE TSTM OR
TWO THIS AFTN/EVNG...LATEST RUC13 SOUNDINGS GENERATE 1000-1500
J/KG. BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETENTION WILL BE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF DENVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT WED JUN 16 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL COLORADO WITH CONTINUED ASSOCIATED SHOWERS OVER SUMMIT AND
PARK COUNTIES. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EAST THIS MORNING EXPECT SOME
DRYING OVER MOUNTAINS AND FRONT RANGE. OVERALL MOISTURE LEVELS
WILL BE LOWER TODAY AS INTEGRATED PW VALUES HAVE DROPPED A COUPLE
TENTHS IN THE PAST 24 HOURS OVER THE FRONT RANGE. THERE WAS SOME
FOG POTENTIAL AS INDICATED BY NAM AND LESSER EXTENT THE RAP BUT
APPEARS NAM WAS WAY OVERDONE WITH MOISTURE THIS AM AS DEWPOINTS
ARE SUPPOSED TO BE IN THE LOWER 60S NOW AND THROUGH THE DAY.
EXTENSIVE MID/HI CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF METAR PLOTS TONIGHT
RESULTING IN HARD TIME SEEING IF THERE IS ANY FOG/STRATUS ON THE
PLAINS. NON-NWS SURFACE PLOTS INDICATE THERE IS ENOUGH T/TD
SPREADS THAT WON`T SEE MUCH FOG THIS AM AND WON`T INCLUDE IN ZONES.
WITH OVERZEALOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM NAM WILL DISCOUNT THAT
MODEL AS IT INDICATED UP TO 3000J/KG OF CAPE. RAP SEEMED BETTER
WITH 700-1500J/KG BASED ON DEWPOINTS FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S
ON THE PLAINS WHICH LOOKS MORE REASONABLE. EVEN LATEST HRRR ONLY
HAS ISOLATED COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF PALMER
DIVIDE AND CYS RIDGE. ALSO AREA WILL BE UNDER WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. WILL LOWER POPS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING TO MAINLY ISOLATED COVERAGE HIGHEST CHANCES
REMAINING ON EAST SLOPES AND HIGHER TERRAIN.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT WED JUN 16 2015
DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS STILL ON TRACK THURSDAY AND BEYOND
WITH A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR WEST. NOT UNCOMMON FOR
A STRONG... NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER RIDGE/HEAT DOME TO ENVELOP
COLORADO AND THE SOUTHWEST U.S. DURING THE LATTER HALF OF JUNE
PRIOR TO THE UNSET OF THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON. LATEST MOS
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE INDICATES A STRING OF 90 PLUS DEGREE DAYS
FOR THE PLAINS BEGINNING THURSDAY. WARMEST AIR ALOFT COINCIDENT
WITH THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS OVER THE FCST AREA ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...EQUATING TO HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS BOTH DAYS. DO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER TO
GET IN THE WAY. ALTHOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT A STRAY GUSTY HIGH BASED
T-STORM OR TWO OVR AND NEAR THE FRONT RANGE WITH ALL OF THE SOIL
MOISTURE AROUND AND STEEP AFTERNOON LAPSE RATES. SEE THIS MAINLY
HAPPENING ON FRIDAY.
SUNDAY...MAY BE EVEN WARMER WITH A 596 DECAMETER RIDGE SQUARELY
OVER COLORADO. HOWEVER A COUPLE OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL
SHOW A WEAK MID-LEVEL PERTABATION ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
AND BRUSHING THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF COLORADO LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. AROUND THE SAME TIME THEY ALSO SHOW A
WEAK COLD FRONT OR SFC TROUGH BACKING INTO THE NERN CORNER OF THE
STATE ON MOIST EAST-SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW. ITS POSSIBLE A FEW
T-STORMS COULD FIRE ALONG THIS SFC BNDRY/THETA-E AXIS AS THE UPPER
AIR FEATURE PASSING BY. OTHERWISE SUNDAY LOOKS DRY AND QUITE WARM
FOR THE REST OF THE CWA. GOOD DAY FOR A BBQ.
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SEE LITTLE IN THE WAY CHANGE WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE KEEPING ITS GRIP ON THE CENTRAL CONUS. THAT MEANS
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AND PRECIP CHANCES NEAR ZERO BOTH
DAYS. HOWEVER...THE 00Z EUROPEAN MODEL INDICATES THE START OF A
WETTER PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR TUESDAY. IT SHOWS THE CORE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE QUICKLY SHIFTING WELL EAST OF COLORADO ON TUESDAY
WHICH OPENS THE ROCKY MTN REGION TO A MOIST SOUTHERLY TROPICAL
FLOW. LOOKS RATHER MONSOONISH. THE WAY THIS YEAR HAS BEEN GOING
WITH EL NINO STRENGTHENING IN THE PACIFIC...FEEL THE NEED TO
INTRODUCE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF T-STORMS MAINLY FOR THE
HIGH COUNTRY LATE TUESDAY AND LOWER TEMPS BY A DEG OR TWO FROM
THOSE EXPECTED THE DAY BEFORE TO ACCOUNT FOR A POSSIBLE INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 905 AM MDT WED JUN 17 2015
VFR CIGS/VSBYS TODAY. LGT AND VRB WINDS THIS MORNING...BECOMING
E/SELY THIS AFTN...THEN BACK TO DRAINAGE BY LATE EVENING. VCTS
WILL SUFFICE IN THE TAFS LATE AFTN/ERLY EVENING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT WED JUN 16 2015
A BIT DRIER AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE OF
STORMS TODAY WHILE STORMS WILL BE MOVING AT A DECENT CLIP WILL
RESULT IN LOW CHANCES FOR FLASH FLOODING TODAY. NO CHANGES TO
CURRENT FLOOD WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...COOPER
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...COOPER
HYDROLOGY...ENTREKIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
401 AM MDT WED JUN 17 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT WED JUN 16 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL COLORADO WITH CONTINUED ASSOCIATED SHOWERS OVER SUMMIT AND
PARK COUNTIES. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EAST THIS MORNING EXPECT SOME
DRYING OVER MOUNTAINS AND FRONT RANGE. OVERALL MOISTURE LEVELS
WILL BE LOWER TODAY AS INTEGRATED PW VALUES HAVE DROPPED A COUPLE
TENTHS IN THE PAST 24 HOURS OVER THE FRONT RANGE. THERE WAS SOME
FOG POTENTIAL AS INDICATED BY NAM AND LESSER EXTENT THE RAP BUT
APPEARS NAM WAS WAY OVERDONE WITH MOISTURE THIS AM AS DEWPOINTS
ARE SUPPOSED TO BE IN THE LOWER 60S NOW AND THROUGH THE DAY.
EXTENSIVE MID/HI CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF METAR PLOTS TONIGHT
RESULTING IN HARD TIME SEEING IF THERE IS ANY FOG/STRATUS ON THE
PLAINS. NON-NWS SURFACE PLOTS INDICATE THERE IS ENOUGH T/TD
SPREADS THAT WON`T SEE MUCH FOG THIS AM AND WON`T INCLUDE IN ZONES.
WITH OVERZEALOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM NAM WILL DISCOUNT THAT
MODEL AS IT INDICATED UP TO 3000J/KG OF CAPE. RAP SEEMED BETTER
WITH 700-1500J/KG BASED ON DEWPOINTS FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S
ON THE PLAINS WHICH LOOKS MORE REASONABLE. EVEN LATEST HRRR ONLY
HAS ISOLATED COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF PALMER
DIVIDE AND CYS RIDGE. ALSO AREA WILL BE UNDER WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. WILL LOWER POPS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING TO MAINLY ISOLATED COVERAGE HIGHEST CHANCES
REMAINING ON EAST SLOPES AND HIGHER TERRAIN.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT WED JUN 16 2015
DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS STILL ON TRACK THURSDAY AND BEYOND
WITH A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR WEST. NOT UNCOMMON FOR
A STRONG... NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER RIDGE/HEAT DOME TO ENVELOP
COLORADO AND THE SOUTHWEST U.S. DURING THE LATTER HALF OF JUNE
PRIOR TO THE UNSET OF THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON. LATEST MOS
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE INDICATES A STRING OF 90 PLUS DEGREE DAYS
FOR THE PLAINS BEGINNING THURSDAY. WARMEST AIR ALOFT COINCIDENT
WITH THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS OVER THE FCST AREA ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...EQUATING TO HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS BOTH DAYS. DO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER TO
GET IN THE WAY. ALTHOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT A STRAY GUSTY HIGH BASED
T-STORM OR TWO OVR AND NEAR THE FRONT RANGE WITH ALL OF THE SOIL
MOISTURE AROUND AND STEEP AFTERNOON LAPSE RATES. SEE THIS MAINLY
HAPPENING ON FRIDAY.
SUNDAY...MAY BE EVEN WARMER WITH A 596 DECAMETER RIDGE SQUARELY
OVER COLORADO. HOWEVER A COUPLE OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL
SHOW A WEAK MID-LEVEL PERTABATION ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
AND BRUSHING THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF COLORADO LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. AROUND THE SAME TIME THEY ALSO SHOW A
WEAK COLD FRONT OR SFC TROUGH BACKING INTO THE NERN CORNER OF THE
STATE ON MOIST EAST-SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW. ITS POSSIBLE A FEW
T-STORMS COULD FIRE ALONG THIS SFC BNDRY/THETA-E AXIS AS THE UPPER
AIR FEATURE PASSING BY. OTHERWISE SUNDAY LOOKS DRY AND QUITE WARM
FOR THE REST OF THE CWA. GOOD DAY FOR A BBQ.
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SEE LITTLE IN THE WAY CHANGE WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE KEEPING ITS GRIP ON THE CENTRAL CONUS. THAT MEANS
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AND PRECIP CHANCES NEAR ZERO BOTH
DAYS. HOWEVER...THE 00Z EUROPEAN MODEL INDICATES THE START OF A
WETTER PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR TUESDAY. IT SHOWS THE CORE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE QUICKLY SHIFTING WELL EAST OF COLORADO ON TUESDAY
WHICH OPENS THE ROCKY MTN REGION TO A MOIST SOUTHERLY TROPICAL
FLOW. LOOKS RATHER MONSOONISH. THE WAY THIS YEAR HAS BEEN GOING
WITH EL NINO STRENGTHENING IN THE PACIFIC...FEEL THE NEED TO
INTRODUCE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF T-STORMS MAINLY FOR THE
HIGH COUNTRY LATE TUESDAY AND LOWER TEMPS BY A DEG OR TWO FROM
THOSE EXPECTED THE DAY BEFORE TO ACCOUNT FOR A POSSIBLE INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT WED JUN 16 2015
WILL DOWNPLAY FOG THREAT AND REMOVE FG/LOW CLOUDS THIS AM WITH
CONSIDERABLE MID CLOUD COVERAGE AND WEAK DRAINAGE WINDS IN PLACE.
AS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY...WEAK RIDGING WILL MOVE IN BUT
STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT. MOST
OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE STORMS ANCHORED ON EAST SLOPES
AND PALMER DIVIDE. GIVEN EXPECTED MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE WILL
REMOVE THE TEMPO GROUPS FROM UPCOMING TERMINAL FORECASTS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT WED JUN 16 2015
A BIT DRIER AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE OF
STORMS TODAY WHILE STORMS WILL BE MOVING AT A DECENT CLIP WILL
RESULT IN LOW CHANCES FOR FLASH FLOODING TODAY. NO CHANGES TO
CURRENT FLOOD WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN
HYDROLOGY...ENTREKIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
356 AM MDT WED JUN 17 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM MDT WED JUN 17 2015
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO DRY OUT TODAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER SHOULD DROP THROUGHOUT THE DAY...REACHING JUST ABOUT A HALF
INCH BY 00Z ACCORDING TO FORECAST SOUNDING. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD BE RELEGATED TO THE MOUNTAINS OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MAX TEMPS SHOULD HIT THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S AT MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS.
AFTER A CLEAR NIGHT...THURSDAY SHOULD BRING ANOTHER DRY AND HOT
DAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 0.4 AND 0.5 INCH
ACCORDING TO THE FORECAST KGJT SOUNDING...WITH EVEN LESS CUMULUS
BUILDUP OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE
GFS STILL SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING OVER AND THROUGH
THE RIDGE...WITH NO HINT OF THIS FEATURE IN THE NAM. SINCE PWAT IN
THE 00Z KSLC SOUNDING WAS DOWN TO 0.59 INCH AT 00Z AND PROJECTED
TO LOWER TO BETWEEN 0.3 AND 0.4 IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS...BELIEVE
THE DRYING WILL BE REAL FOR THURSDAY. SO HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF TSTMS ONLY ALONG THE EASTERN CWA BORDER OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. NEITHER MODEL RUN AT 00Z SHOWS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING
AS IN PREVIOUS RUNS...SO HAVE DECREASED AFTERNOON WINDS AS WELL.
TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO RISE WITH MAXES IN THE LOWER AND MID 90S
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM MDT WED JUN 17 2015
HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OFFSHORE FROM SRN AND BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL
SLOWLY MIGRATE EAST AND BE POSITIONED OVER NEW MEXICO BY NEXT
TUESDAY. THIS ESSENTIALLY SHUTS DOWN ANY POTENTIAL MOISTURE PLUMES
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. DRY AND HOT WEATHER (NOT QUITE JULY HOT)
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE
IS ONE SMALL CAVEAT...ONCE HIGH PRESSURE REACHES NEW MEXICO...
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BY NEXT TUESDAY
THANKS TO STEEP AFTERNOON LAPSE RATES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015
ACTIVE TSRA ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY OF KRIL-KEGE WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL 08Z-09Z PER HRRR MODEL. ONCE THIS ACTIVITY ENDS...THEN NO
TAF SITES SHOULD BE IMPACTED BY ANY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 06Z
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA MAY FORM EAST OF KEGE-KASE-
KGUC-KTEX BETWEEN 18Z-02Z.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1155 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 819 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015
UPDATED TO REMOVE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HEADLINES. STORMS
HAVE SUBSIDED AND THE ONLY MODERATE STORMS STILL ACTIVE WILL
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE WATCH AREA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 710 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015
THE CHANCE OF STRONG STORMS PULLED EAST OF DAGGETT COUNTY UT SO
REMOVED DAGGETT COUNTY FROM THE WATCH AREA. STORMS SHOULD FOCUS
OVER RIO BLANCO AND EASTERN GARFIELD COUNTIES THROUGH 04Z. THE
FLATTOPS AND THE PICEANCE BASIN ALONG THE RIO BLANCO AND GARFIELD
COUNTY LINES WILL BE THE PRIME AREA FOR STRONG STORMS. SEVERAL
MODERATELY STRONG STORMS WILL PASS OVER I-70 BETWEEN SILT AND
VAIL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 457 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS NW CO AND
ESPECIALLY NE UT. SEVERE STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. ONE FUNNEL
CLOUD WAS REPORTED AT 155 PM IN EASTERN DAGGETT COUNTY. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES ACROSS DAGGETT...MOFFAT AND ROUTT
COUNTIES UNTIL 10 PM. SIGNIFICANT STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER
UINTAH COUNTY AS WELL AS RIO BLANCO...GARFIELD...MESA...NORTHERN
DELTA...EAGLE AND PITKIN COUNTIES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR DAGGETT...MOFFAT...AND
ROUTT COUNTIES UNTIL 10PM THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND WINDS
GREATER THAN 58 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.
PLEASE REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SWEPT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AHEAD OF PAIR OF WEAK DISTURBANCES
WHICH PASSED OVER THE AREA. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY AROUND
MIDDAY ...DAYTIME HEATING GENERATED ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. INGREDIENTS REMAINED IN
PLACE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH AND A STRONG CELL
HAD FORMED OVER THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS. WEAK DRYING AT MID-
LEVELS WILL BRING PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVELS DOWN A BIT SO EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
SUNSET. ECMWF/NAM/GFS ALL INDICATED POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OVER THE CENTRAL COLORADO
MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SEASONABLE.
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ADVECT INTO THE CWA FROM THE WEST
IN A WESTERLY FLOW ON WEDNESDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
DROPPING TO AROUND 0.5 INCHES. THERE ARE A FEW RIPPLES IN THE FLOW
AND ENOUGH MOISTURE ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF OUR CWA TO GENERATE
SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWER VALLEYS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY BUT THINKING
THE MODELS ARE WANTING TO DRY OUT THE ATMOSPHERE A LITTLE TOO
QUICKLY GIVEN THE INCREASED STORM ACTIVITY THIS MORNING WHEN MODELS
WERE TRENDING DRIER FOR THE MOST PART. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT WITH NO REAL FORCING TO KEEP THINGS GOING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOWLY WARMING TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO WANT TO DRY OUT THE ATMOSPHERE EVEN
FURTHER WITH PW VALUES DECREASING TO 0.4 INCHES WITH 0.5 LINGERING
ALONG THE DIVIDE. THE GFS INDICATES A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH
EMBEDDED VORT MAXES MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
GIVEN THE ADDITIONAL FORCING AND LINGERING MOISTURE AND THE THINKING
THAT MODELS ARE A BIT TOO QUICK IN DRYING THINGS OUT...BELIEVE THIS
WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. INCREASED POPS ON THURSDAY
AS A RESULT. LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO SUFFICIENT WITH VALUES APPROACHING
9.5 C/KM. SOME ISOLATED STORMS MAY DRIFT OR FORM OVER VALLEYS LATER
IN THE DAY GIVEN THE ADDITIONAL FORCING BUT VALLEYS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY FOR THE MOST PART. GIVEN THE DRIER LOW LEVELS...GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD
INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY FRIDAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SEEN. AN
ISOLATED STORM OR TWO MAY POP OVER THE SAN JUANS WHERE SOME MOISTURE
MAY LINGER...BUT THINK BY THIS POINT MOISTURE WILL BE MINIMAL. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OUT OF THE PACIFIC NW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES ON SATURDAY WITH THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THIS SYSTEM SKIMMING
THE EXTREME NORTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA AS THE JET DIPS SOUTH OF
THE CO-WY BORDER. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS UP
NORTH WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS BUT NOTHING MUCH ELSE AS THE BEST
MOISTURE AND FORCING REMAIN WELL NORTH OF OUR CWA.
THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
THIS WEEKEND AND REMAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MUCH DRIER AIR WITH PW VALUES LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES AND TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL VALUES WITH 7H TEMPS NEAR 20C FROM SAT
THRU TUES. MANY LOWER VALLEYS WILL SEE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH SOME
LOCATIONS, PARTICULARLY IN SE UTAH, SEEING TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT. NUDGED
MAX TEMPS UPWARDS IN THIS DIRECTION DURING THIS PERIOD AS BC
GUIDANCE STILL COMING IN A BIT TOO COOL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015
ACTIVE TSRA ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY OF KRIL-KEGE WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL 08Z-09Z PER HRRR MODEL. ONCE THIS ACTIVITY ENDS...THEN NO
TAF SITES SHOULD BE IMPACTED BY ANY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 06Z
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA MAY FORM EAST OF KEGE-KASE-
KGUC-KTEX BETWEEN 18Z-02Z.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CC
SHORT TERM...NL/MDA
LONG TERM....MDA
AVIATION...PF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1130 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015
...MORE STORMS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...
MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE STRONG STORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR. CURRENTLY...MODELS HAVE DONE A
REASONABLE JOB DEPICTING THE HEAVIEST STORM ACTIVITY OVER LAS
ANIMAS COUNTY AND SRN ZONES. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE HI
RES SOLUTIONS FOR THIS EVENING THOUGH...GIVEN POOR RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY AND DIFFERENCES BETWN THE MODELS. THE HRRR...FOR
EXAMPLE...HAS ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH
EL PASO AND PUEBLO COUNTIES LATE THIS EVENING...WHILE THE WRF
AND OTHER RUNS ARE DRY. THERE IS PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA...AND THERE IS AT LEAST SOME SIGN OF A TRAILING
SHORT WAVE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...MOVING INTO ERN UT AND WY
AT THIS TIME. SO...SUSPECT THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE WAVES
OF SCT CONVECTION THROUGH THIS EVE...ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF
HEAVY RAIN. AFTER 06Z...SHOULD SEE THINGS QUIET DOWN.
TOMORROW...ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED...BUT IT SHOULD BE A
BIT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WRN SECTIONS WILL LIKELY ONLY SEE ISOLD
ACTIVITY AS DRY AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN FROM THE W AND SW WED
AFTERNOON. BULK SHEARS WILL BE RUNNING 30-40 KTS...AND CAPE AT
1500-2500 J/KG OVER THE PLAINS...SO SVR WX WILL BE A THREAT
TOMORROW...PARTICULARLY OVER THE PALMER DVD AND FAR SERN PLAINS WHERE
THESE VALUES WILL BE GREATEST. IN FACT...CAPE IN THESE AREAS IS
HIGH ENOUGH THAT VERY LARGE HAIL COULD BE A CONCERN DEPENDING ON
THE CONVECTIVE MODE WED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE.
OTHER DILEMMA FOR TOMORROW WILL BE THE TEMPS. SO FAR TODAY...KPUB
HAS NOT GOT OUT OF THE LOWER 80S...WHILE GUIDANCE WAS IN THE LOW 90S
FOR TODAY. SO...NOT EXPECTING US TO GET INTO THE 90S TOMORROW EITHER.
UPPER 80S MAY EVEN BE GENEROUS FOR THE LOWER ARKANSAS VALLEY. UNTIL
WE DRY OUT LATE IN THE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND...GOING BELOW GUIDANCE
BY AT LEAST 5 DEGREES SEEMS THE BEST BET. ROSE
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015
WED NIGHT A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACRS THE AREA IN
THE NWRLY FLOW ALOFT...SPREADING SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM THE MTN
AREAS...ACRS THE SERN PLAINS. BY LATE NIGHT THE DISTURBANCE WL EXIT
THE STATE AND MOST...IF NOT ALL THE PCPN SHOULD END ACRS THE
FORECAST AREA. THU AN UPR RIDGE WL BE OVR THE AREA AND ALTHOUGH IT
SHOULD BE A LITTLE DRIER...THERE WL PROBABLY STILL BE SOME ISOLD TO
SCT PCPN CHANCES OVR THE AREA. THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL
ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO ERN OK ON THU. THE GFS HAS SERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW INTO SERN CO ON THU AND BRINGS WIDESPREAD PCPN THU NIGHT.
ON THE OTHER HAND...THE NAM ONLY HAS SOME ISOLD PCPN OVR THE SERN
PLAINS THU EVENING AND THEN DRY WX FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. THE
ECMWF IS ALSO MORE MOIST THAN THE NAM. FOR NOW...WL JUST KEEP SOME
ISOLD POPS OVR THE ERN PLAINS TO MATCH SURROUNDING FORECAST OFFICE
AREAS...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF
THE REMNANTS OF BILL. H7 TEMPS OVR THE AREA THU AFTERNOON SHOULD
RANGE FROM ABOUT 12C-19C WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S
ACRS THE SERN PLAINS...WITH MOSTLY 80S IN THE HIGH VALLEYS. THIS WL
RESULT IN CONTINUED HIGH ELEVATION SNOW MELT.
ON FRI THE UPR RIDGE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO BE OVR SRN CA WITH FAIRLY
LIGHT W TO NWRLY FLOW ALOFT...AND SOUTH TO SW FLOW LOW LEVEL FLOW
OVR THE SERN PLAINS. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM ARE QUITE DRY OVR THE
FORECAST AREA FOR FRI...WITH THE ECMWF HAVING A SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCE FOR SOME PCPN. WL KEEP THE MENTION OF SOME ISOLD POP OVR
SOME OF THE MTNS...BUT WL GO WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. H7
TEMPS ACRS THE AREA ON FRI ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM ABOUT 16C-
20C...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN ON THU. HIGH TEMPS WL MOSTLY BE IN THE
90S ACRS THE SERN PLAINS...WITH 80S IN THE HIGH VALLEYS.
SAT...A SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES FROM WY INTO THE PLAINS STATES...AND
SENDS A FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO SERN CO. THE UPR RIDGE CENTER IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE OVR SRN CA AND WRN AZ. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW
THE POTENTIAL FOR JUST SOME ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR SAT AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SO WL KEEP JUST SOME ISOLD POPS OVR SOME OF THE MTN
AREAS. H7 TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER ON SAT THAN
ON FRI AND THUS TEMPS WL AGAIN BE QUITE WARM ACRS THE FORECAST AREA.
ON SUN THE UPR HIGH CENTER SHIFTS TO NR THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION...KEEPING THE WEATHER MOSTLY DRY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPS. FOR MON AND TUE THE GFS HAS THE UPR HIGH CENTER OVR NM AND
THE TX PANHANDLE WHICH KEEPS OUR WX MAINLY DRY AND WARM. THE ECMWF
SHIFTS THE UPR HIGH CENTER EASTWARD AND BRINGS MSTR INTO THE AREA
AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPR RIDGE. FOR NOW...WL KEEP MOST OF THE
AREA DRY...WITH JUST SOME ISOLD POPS OVR THE MTNS AND WL CONTINUE
WITH THE ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015
HAVE INCLUDED A VCTS MENTION AT KPUB 06Z-08Z AS A FEW TSRA DRIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE ARKANSAS VALLEY. DIDN`T INCLUDE A MENTION AT
KCOS AS AIR MASS LOOKS SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE FARTHER NORTH...THOUGH
A FEW SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE 06Z-07Z. HRRR SUGGESTS CONVECTION
SHIFTS EAST TOWARD THE KS BORDER 08Z-10Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AT BOTH KPUB AND KCOS. AT
KALS...RAIN NEAR THE TERMINAL EARLIER TUE AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY
LEAVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOIST ENOUGH FOR SOME GROUND FOG AROUND
SUNRISE WED...WITH BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS 12Z-15Z. WILL INCLUDE A
VCTS ALL TAF SITES WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS TSRA FORM OVER THE
MOUNTAINS BY 18Z...THEN MOVE TO LOWER ELEVATIONS 20Z-21Z.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015
PER COORDINATION WITH LOCAL EM ACROSS OUR WRN
ZONES...WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING ACROSS LAKE AND
CHAFFEE COUNTIES THROUGH THIS EVENING. STREAM FLOWS ARE FALLING
ACROSS THIS AREA...BUT COULD STILL SEE SOME LOCAL FLASH FLOOD
CONCERNS DEPENDING ON THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING`S RAINFALL.
GIVEN THAT THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT ACROSS THESE ZONES SHOULD BE
WINDING DOWN AFTER THIS EVENING...PLAN IS TO ALLOW THESE
WATCHES TO RUN THEIR COURSE AND EXPIRE WHEN SCHEDULED. THERE
WILL STILL BE A LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT DEPENDING ON RAINFALL.
SNOWMELT WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO KEEP THE ARKANSAS FLOWING QUITE
STRONGLY IN THE NEAR TERM. AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS WILL BE REEVALUATED
FOLLOWING THIS LATEST ROUND OF STORMS...BUT SHOULD SEE THINGS
IMPROVE FROM A RAINFALL/QPF PERSPECTIVE BEGINNING TOMORROW. ROSE
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ058>063.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...PETERSEN
HYDROLOGY...ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1040 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION
TOMORROW MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND...AS WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1040 PM EDT...A PROGRESSIVE AND DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER S-CNTRL ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC WITH THE CLOSED H500 CIRCULATION
OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC WILL BREAK DOWN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BRIEFLY
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. A COLD FRONT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
LATEST KENX AND REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF
HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. THERE HAVE BEEN A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER THANKS TO CLOUD-TO-CLOUD OR INTRA-CLOUD LTG
ACTIVITY OVER OUR AREA ACCORDING TO NATL LTG NETWORK DATA...BUT
ANY CLOUD TO GROUND STRIKES HAVE BEEN REMAINING WEST OF OUR AREA
OVER THE TUG HILL FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING.
RADAR TRENDS AND 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS BATCH OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE LAKE GEORGE
REGION...WITH MORE ACTIVITY SPREADING INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SARATOGA REGION REGION AS WELL...OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE
CONTINUED TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS OVER THIS AREA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO ONLY CALL THUNDER SLIGHT CHANCE
DUE TO SPORADIC AND SPARSE NATURE OF THE LTG DUE TO THE LIMITED
INSTABILITY IN PLACE. ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF A
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR...BUT HEAVY RAIN WILL BE SHORT LIVED IN ANY
ONE LOCATION...AND FLOODING WON/T BE A CONCERN.
FURTHER SOUTH...WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH MAINLY CHC POPS. THE 3KM
HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SPOTTY ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH THE
CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER...BUT THE MOST
CONCENTRATED SHOWERS/STORMS LOOKS TO REMAIN FURTHER NORTH.
LOWS TONIGHT WERE FAVORED TOWARDS THE WARMER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
WITH THE SLOW TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT. LOWS IN THE MID TO U50S
ARE LIKELY OVER THE MTNS...WITH MAINLY LOWER TO M60S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...THE CONSENSUS WITH
THE SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE IS A SLOWER TREND WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
SFC COLD FRONT...ITS ASSOCIATED DEWPT BOUNDARY...AND THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE THE SLOWEST...WITH THE GFS/ECMWF
A BIT FASTER. A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST
FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION/GLENS FALLS/SARATOGA REGION/SRN
VT SOUTH AND EAST IN THE MORNING.
THE LATER TIMING WILL ALLOW SLIGHTLY WARMER MAX TEMPS WITH THE
W/NW DOWNSLOPING WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY ALLOWING SOME
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING...ESPECIALLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MID
HUDSON VALLEY. THE SFC HIGH WILL BE QUICKLY BUILDING IN FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR IN THE
AFTERNOON FROM THE N/NW TO S/SE DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND WITH THE APPROACHING ANTICYCLONE.
IT WILL BE A BREEZY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE RELATIVELY STRONG SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS...AND BETTER MIXING FROM
ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO ISOLATED M80S FROM THE SRN
REACHES OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SRN
TACONICS IN THE PORTIONS OF LITCHFIELD CTY CT...MID AND U70S WILL
BE COMMON IN MANY OF THE OTHER VALLEY LOCATIONS AND OVER THE
HILLS...WITH M60S TO M70S OVER THE MTNS. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM
THE NW/N AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 MPH.
TOMORROW NIGHT...A CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS THAT BECOME LIGHT TO CALM...AS THE SFC HIGH
MOVES OVERHEARD. IT IS A VERY COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS. H850 TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE +7C TO +10C RANGE. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE U40S TO M50S FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION/MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST...AND MAINLY 40-45F
NORTH OF ALBANY WITH A FEW U30S OVER THE SRN DACKS.
SATURDAY...A NICE START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC
HIGH MOVING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUNNY/MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM
THE SOUTH AND WEST IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT OVER THE OH VALLEY
AND MID ATLANTIC SATES. THE REMNANT CIRCULATION FROM BILL WILL
ALSO APPROACH THE OH VALLEY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY POP UP LATE IN
THE DAY OVER THE CATSKILLS AND BERKSHIRES. OTHERWISE FAIR AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE MID AND U70S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND M60S TO L70S OVER
THE MTNS.
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH
THE WARM FRONT LIFTING N/NE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...AND A
SFC WAVE AND COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE TROUGH THAT WAS FORMERLY BILL LOOKS TO STAY SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THE INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND THETA-E ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS
TO INCREASE. THE SHOWALTER VALUES LOWER TO 0C TO -2C. THE PWATS
LOOKS TO INCREASE TO 1.25-1.75 INCHES. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS
ARE IN THE GRIDS WITH CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AND WILL MENTION IN THE HWO.
THE GREATEST THREAT LOOKS TO BE ON SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE RATHER ACTIVE...AS THE
REMNANTS OF TC BILL WILL BE PASSING BY THE SOUTH OF THE REGION ON
SUNDAY.
THE CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS
MANY OF THE 12Z GEFS MEMBERS...SHOWS THE REMNANT SFC LOW AND
HEAVIEST QPF ASSOCIATED WITH BILL MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION.
STILL...WITH PWAT VALUES AS HIGH AS 2-3 STD ABOVE NORMAL...ANY
SHOWER OR T-STORM OVER THE REGION WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SHOWERS
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...AS AN APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
WILL TEAM UP WITH THE REMNANT TC CIRCULATION TO ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/T-STORMS. T-STORM ACTIVITY DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE TOO STRONG
DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY DUE TO PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND WARM
MID LEVEL TEMPS. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE HELD DOWN MAINLY INTO THE
70S THANKS TO THE PRECIP/CLOUDS.
ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS LOOKS TO BE ON
SUNDAY...THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT OR
MONDAY THANKS TO THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. TEMPS LOOK TO HOLD
IN THE 60S FOR SUN NIGHT...AND MID 70S TO LOW 80S FOR MONDAY...WITH
MORE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED AS THE BEST UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
STARTS TO MOVE AWAY.
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE
YET ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IMPACTS THE REGION FOR TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHC FOR THUNDER DURING TUESDAY
AFTN/EVE. TEMPS ON MON NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S...AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL PROBABLY BE IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR
80.
BEHIND THE STORM/S COLD FRONT...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL START
WORKING TO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SKIES WILL START TO CLEAR OUT TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOWS LATE ON TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. DRY WEATHER WITH
A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS TONIGHT.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS STILL OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION...WITH MAINLY HIGH END MVFR TO LOW END VFR CIGS. RADAR
TRENDS AND HIRES GUIDANCE SUGGEST LITTLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
LATER TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM DROPS ACROSS THE
REGION. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS.
WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...THERE IS ONLY A VERY LOW CHANCE
OF ANY THUNDER...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
WITHIN SHOWERS...VSBYS/CIGS LOOK TO BE IN THE MVFR
RANGE...ALTHOUGH CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
CIGS...MAINLY AT KPSF.
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL END 11Z-13Z AS THE FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH. MVFR CIGS MAY HANG ON FOR A FEW MORE HOURS INTO THE
MORNING...ESP AT KPSF/KPOU WHERE THE FRONT WILL CLEAR LAST...BUT
CLEARING SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN TO ALL SITES BY
THE AFTN HOURS...WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING CU AROUND 4-5 KFT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE 10 KTS OR LESS...AND SWITCH TO A
N-NW DIRECTION BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY MORNING AT 5-10 KTS OR
SO.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...AS WET AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RECOVER TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND DECREASE TO 25 TO 45 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE RH
VALUES RECOVER TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT SATURDAY MORNING.
THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 5-15 MPH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...AND WILL SHIFT TO THE W
TO NW AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 10 TO
20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH TOMORROW IN THE LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...BUT SOME RISES ARE POSSIBLE ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AS SOME WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
RETURNS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL RANGE FROM ONE TENTH TO A THIRD AN INCH WITH SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION.
WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY MONDAY...AS THE MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL ENTITY
BILL MAY IMPACT PARTS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE VARIABLE RIGHT NOW...BUT A WIDESPREAD HALF AN INCH AN INCH IS
LIKELY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
744 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION
TOMORROW MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND...AS WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 744 PM EDT...A PROGRESSIVE AND DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER S-CNTRL ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC WITH THE CLOSED H500 CIRCULATION
OVER HUDSON BAY WILL BREAK DOWN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BRIEFLY
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. A COLD FRONT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN MOVE S/SE ACROSS THE FCST AREA
FOR LATE TONIGHT.
KENX RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW NO PRECIP ACTIVITY OVER OUR
AREA...AND THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER IN PLACE IS KEEPING IT RATHER
STABLE AND HELP PREVENT ANY SHOWERS/T-STORMS FROM FORMING. THERE
HAVE BEEN SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM OF THE REGION
OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND WESTERN/CENTRAL NY...WHERE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS HAS ALLOWED FOR MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS.
THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR THE SHOWERS TO INCREASE TONIGHT
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND THEN TO EXPAND EASTWARD.
THE LATEST HIRES 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGEST THERE MAY BE A SHOWERS
OR ISOLD THUNDERSTOMRS IN OUR AREA AS EARLY AS MIDNIGHT OR
SO...BUT THE BEST CHANCE COMES LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION.
AN AREA OF LIKELY POPS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH AND WEST WHERE THE BETTER LIFT AND
CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH CHC VALUES TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. WILL ONLY INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHC FOR THUNDER AS INSTABILITY
WILL BE MEAGER.
LOWS TONIGHT WERE FAVORED TOWARDS THE WARMER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
WITH THE SLOW TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT. LOWS IN THE MID TO U50S
ARE LIKELY OVER THE MTNS...WITH MAINLY LOWER TO M60S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...THE CONSENSUS WITH
THE SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE IS A SLOWER TREND WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
SFC COLD FRONT...ITS ASSOCIATED DEWPT BOUNDARY...AND THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE THE SLOWEST...WITH THE GFS/ECMWF
A BIT FASTER. A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST
FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION/GLENS FALLS/SARATOGA REGION/SRN
VT SOUTH AND EAST IN THE MORNING.
THE LATER TIMING WILL ALLOW SLIGHTLY WARMER MAX TEMPS WITH THE
W/NW DOWNSLOPING WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY ALLOWING SOME
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING...ESPECIALLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MID
HUDSON VALLEY. THE SFC HIGH WILL BE QUICKLY BUILDING IN FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR IN THE
AFTERNOON FROM THE N/NW TO S/SE DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND WITH THE APPROACHING ANTICYCLONE.
IT WILL BE A BREEZY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE RELATIVELY STRONG SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS...AND BETTER MIXING FROM
ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO ISOLATED M80S FROM THE SRN
REACHES OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SRN
TACONICS IN THE PORTIONS OF LITCHFIELD CTY CT...MID AND U70S WILL
BE COMMON IN MANY OF THE OTHER VALLEY LOCATIONS AND OVER THE
HILLS...WITH M60S TO M70S OVER THE MTNS. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM
THE NW/N AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 MPH.
TOMORROW NIGHT...A CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS THAT BECOME LIGHT TO CALM...AS THE SFC HIGH
MOVES OVERHEARD. IT IS A VERY COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS. H850 TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE +7C TO +10C RANGE. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE U40S TO M50S FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION/MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST...AND MAINLY 40-45F
NORTH OF ALBANY WITH A FEW U30S OVER THE SRN DACKS.
SATURDAY...A NICE START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC
HIGH MOVING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUNNY/MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM
THE SOUTH AND WEST IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT OVER THE OH VALLEY
AND MID ATLANTIC SATES. THE REMNANT CIRCULATION FROM BILL WILL
ALSO APPROACH THE OH VALLEY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY POP UP LATE IN
THE DAY OVER THE CATSKILLS AND BERKSHIRES. OTHERWISE FAIR AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE MID AND U70S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND M60S TO L70S OVER
THE MTNS.
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH
THE WARM FRONT LIFTING N/NE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...AND A
SFC WAVE AND COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE TROUGH THAT WAS FORMERLY BILL LOOKS TO STAY SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THE INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND THETA-E ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS
TO INCREASE. THE SHOWALTER VALUES LOWER TO 0C TO -2C. THE PWATS
LOOKS TO INCREASE TO 1.25-1.75 INCHES. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS
ARE IN THE GRIDS WITH CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AND WILL MENTION IN THE HWO.
THE GREATEST THREAT LOOKS TO BE ON SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE RATHER ACTIVE...AS THE
REMNANTS OF TC BILL WILL BE PASSING BY THE SOUTH OF THE REGION ON
SUNDAY.
THE CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS
MANY OF THE 12Z GEFS MEMBERS...SHOWS THE REMNANT SFC LOW AND
HEAVIEST QPF ASSOCIATED WITH BILL MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION.
STILL...WITH PWAT VALUES AS HIGH AS 2-3 STD ABOVE NORMAL...ANY
SHOWER OR T-STORM OVER THE REGION WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SHOWERS
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...AS AN APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
WILL TEAM UP WITH THE REMNANT TC CIRCULATION TO ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/T-STORMS. T-STORM ACTIVITY DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE TOO STRONG
DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY DUE TO PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND WARM
MID LEVEL TEMPS. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE HELD DOWN MAINLY INTO THE
70S THANKS TO THE PRECIP/CLOUDS.
ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS LOOKS TO BE ON
SUNDAY...THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT OR
MONDAY THANKS TO THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. TEMPS LOOK TO HOLD
IN THE 60S FOR SUN NIGHT...AND MID 70S TO LOW 80S FOR MONDAY...WITH
MORE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED AS THE BEST UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
STARTS TO MOVE AWAY.
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE
YET ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IMPACTS THE REGION FOR TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHC FOR THUNDER DURING TUESDAY
AFTN/EVE. TEMPS ON MON NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S...AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL PROBABLY BE IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR
80.
BEHIND THE STORM/S COLD FRONT...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL START
WORKING TO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SKIES WILL START TO CLEAR OUT TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOWS LATE ON TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. DRY WEATHER WITH
A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS TONIGHT.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS STILL OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION...WITH MAINLY HIGH END MVFR TO LOW END VFR CIGS. RADAR
TRENDS AND HIRES GUIDANCE SUGGEST LITTLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
LATER TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM DROPS ACROSS THE
REGION. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS.
WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...THERE IS ONLY A VERY LOW CHANCE
OF ANY THUNDER...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
WITHIN SHOWERS...VSBYS/CIGS LOOK TO BE IN THE MVFR
RANGE...ALTHOUGH CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
CIGS...MAINLY AT KPSF.
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL END 11Z-13Z AS THE FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH. MVFR CIGS MAY HANG ON FOR A FEW MORE HOURS INTO THE
MORNING...ESP AT KPSF/KPOU WHERE THE FRONT WILL CLEAR LAST...BUT
CLEARING SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN TO ALL SITES BY
THE AFTN HOURS...WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING CU AROUND 4-5 KFT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE 10 KTS OR LESS...AND SWITCH TO A
N-NW DIRECTION BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY MORNING AT 5-10 KTS OR
SO.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...AS WET AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RECOVER TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND DECREASE TO 25 TO 45 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE RH
VALUES RECOVER TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT SATURDAY MORNING.
THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 5-15 MPH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...AND WILL SHIFT TO THE W
TO NW AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 10 TO
20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH TOMORROW IN THE LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...BUT SOME RISES ARE POSSIBLE ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AS SOME WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
RETURNS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL RANGE FROM ONE TENTH TO A THIRD AN INCH WITH SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION.
WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY MONDAY...AS THE MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL ENTITY
BILL MAY IMPACT PARTS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE VARIABLE RIGHT NOW...BUT A WIDESPREAD HALF AN INCH AN INCH IS
LIKELY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
925 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THRU OUR REGION OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...STALLING
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS BOUNDARY WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD AS A
WARM FRONT ON SATURDAY. THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL
WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER SERIES OF
FRONTS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MADE A LITTLE PROGRESS NORTHWARD AND IS
BECOMING HARDER TO DEFINE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND RISING
DEW POINTS TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
RECENT HRRR RUNS SUGGEST ORGANIZED CONVECTION NOW ENTERING WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA WILL BE IMPACTING OUR AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NORTH.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH, EITHER DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT
HOURS OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE
WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE LOW 60S NORTH...AND IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE
WEST...AND COULD GUST UP TO 20 MPH OR SO DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THE PROGRESSION OF THIS FRONT WILL BE SLOW,
SO PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COULD
LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS NORTH...AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS IN THE FAR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RAIN INTO THE
LOW 80S NORTH AND UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 IN THE FAR SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW...
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW FEATURES AN OMEGA BLOCK SITUATED OVER THE BERING
STRAIT THIS WEEKEND...WHICH GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO THE WEST COAST OF
NOAM AND BREAKS DOWN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DOWNSTREAM OVER THE NE
CONUS...THE FLOW WILL BE MORE ZONAL UNTIL MIDWEEK...WHEN A TROUGH
BEGINS TO DEVELOP.
THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE SAT THRU WED TIME FRAME WILL BE THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL...WHICH WILL IMPACT THE AREA
ON SUNDAY...WITH A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL INCREASINGLY LIKELY.
THUS THERE ARE SOME FLOODING CONCERNS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AOA AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DETAILS...
SAT...COLUMN MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY...THUS EXPECT
SKIES TO BECOME OVERCAST. THERE WILL BE A NARROW CORRIDOR OF INSBY
BETWEEN ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
NORTHWEST OF I-95...PARTICULARLY OVER THE DELMARVA...WHERE CAPE
WILL INCREASE UP TO 1 KJ. A STALLED FRONT ALONG THE COAST SHOULD
TRIGGER SOME AFTN CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY OVER DELMARVA AND
SOUTHEAST PA.
SUN...A WARM FRONT ALONG WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
BILL WILL GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION...PRESENTING A THREAT
OF HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH PWAT AIRMASS ALONG WITH A SOUTHERLY LOW-
JET WILL BE IN PLACE...BOTH ABOUT 2 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL. STRONG
ISENTROPIC ASCENT DURING THE LATE MORNING THRU EARLY AFTERNOON
WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD HEAVY RAFL. ATTM...MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE
SHOWN LITTLE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH REGARD TO THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAFL...ANYWHERE FROM THE DELMARVA TO THE I-78 CORRIDOR.
WHERE IT DOES SETUP...A GENERAL 1-2 INCHES OF RAFL IS ANTICIPATED
WITH ISOLATED 3 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...BASED ON GFS/UKMET QPF
WHICH HAS PERFORMED THE BEST SO FAR WITH THIS SYSTEM.
MON THRU WED...THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WITH REGARD TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE NE CONUS TROUGH AND
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE...LEADING TO BOTH SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL MODEL
DISAGREEMENT. OVERALL...AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
GENERAL IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STRUGGLES TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE
IN THE TAFS FOR THE LATE EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH SHORTLY BEFORE
SUNRISE FRIDAY.
ONCE THIS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT OR FRIDAY
MORNING, CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON.
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY...THEN WESTERLY LATE
TONIGHT...THEN NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTS IN
THE 20 KT RANGE OR SO FROM LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA EARLY...MAINLY ILG, ACY, AND
MIV...OTHERWISE VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA...PARTICULARLY
AT PHL, PNE, TTN, ILG, AND RDG.
SUN...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN LOW CLOUDS, FOG, +SHRA...ESP LATE AM THRU
EARLY AFTN.
MON...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ATTM.
&&
.MARINE...
A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST...THEN
WEST OVERNIGHT...THEN NORTHWEST IN THE POST-COLD FRONT
ENVIRONMENT ON FRIDAY. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME GUSTS IN THE 20 TO
25 KT RANGE ON FRIDAY ONCE THE NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED.
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET. SOME PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT OVER THE FAR NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...AND A
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE WIDELY SCATTERED.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS WITH A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW...
SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
SUN...A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH W/THE FLOW VEERING TO THE SOUTH.
WINDS AND SEAS MAY REACH SCA CRITERIA.
SUN NIGHT AND MON...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS AS
THE WIND BECOMES WEST. SUB SCA CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED ATTM.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
WITH AN OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED...A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS
FORECAST ON FRIDAY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...SZATKOWSKI/MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...MIKETTA
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/SZATKOWSKI/MIKETTA
MARINE...FRANCK/SZATKOWSKI/MIKETTA
RIP CURRENTS...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
815 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
.UPDATE...
00Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THE MAIN NORTHERN STREAM
FLOW RUNNING ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER THIS EVENING. SOUTH
OF THE NORTHERN STREAM...WE FIND A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES...THE REMNANTS OF TS BILL OVER THE
CENTRAL MS VALLEY...AND ANOTHER LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...INCLUDING THE FL PENINSULA.
AT THE SURFACE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS RIDGES BACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA AND INTO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS RIDGE WILL BE HOLDING IN PLACE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND PROVIDING A VERY TYPICAL SUMMER
PATTERN FOR OUR FORECAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
DESPITE THE UPPER RIDGE...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL COLUMN WAS NOT QUITE
AS DRY TODAY...AND HENCE A BIT LESS HOSTILE TO DEEP CONVECTION.
THE WEST COAST SEA-BREEZE WAS ABLE TO FIRE OFF A GOOD NUMBER OF
STORMS...A FEW OF THEM ON THE STRONG SIDE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. OUTFLOW FROM THESE STORMS MERGED WITH
THE SEA BREEZE AND QUICKLY MOVED EASTWARD IN THE PAST FEW HOURS
HELPING TO SETTLE THE STORM ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR.
STILL SEEING A SCATTERING OF CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF
MANATEE/HARDEE COUNTIES...BUT WOULD EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO
BEGIN DISSIPATING WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
THEREAFTER...OTHER THAN A FEW VERY ISOLATED POP-UP SHOWERS...THE
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT SHOULD FEATURE DRY...BUT WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS.
THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL PENINSULA ON THURSDAY WILL SET UP
A BASICALLY NEUTRAL FLOW DAY. WILL SEE SCT STORMS FIRE ALONG THE
WEST COAST SEA-BREEZE AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE EAST/WEST COAST SEA BREEZE COLLISION IS LIKELY TO
OCCUR THROUGH THE INTERIOR OF THE STATE...AND THEREFORE...STORMS
REACH PEAK COVERAGE AND INTENSITY MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
I-75 CORRIDOR DURING THE LATE DAY HOURS.
THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE OVER A MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN A HOT DAY ACROSS THE REGION IN TERMS OF HEAT
INDICIES. MANY LOCATION ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 100 DEGREES WITH
SOME SPOTS PEAKING BETWEEN 105-108 DEGREES. SIMILAR TO
TODAY...THOSE WITH EXTENDED OUTDOOR PLANS ON FRIDAY NEED TO TAKE
PRECAUTIONS TO COUNTER THE IMPACTS OF THE VERY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE COME TO AN END FOR THE TAMPA BAY AREA
TERMINALS...BUT STILL SEEING SCT STORMS FROM PUNTA GORDA
SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. WILL LEAVE MENTION OF
VCTS IN FOR KPGD/KRSW/KFMY TILL 02Z. WATCHING CLOSELY FOR KSRQ.
IN THE CLEAR NOW...BUT STORMS MAY ATTEMPT TO BUILD BRIEFLY CLOSE
TO THE TERMINAL AFTER SUNSET. AFTER 03Z...ALL TERMINALS WILL BE IN
GENERAL VFR. SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG AROUND KPGD
LATE TONIGHT DUE TO THE LATE DAY RAINFALL IN THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL FL
PENINSULA AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THIS RIDGE POSITION WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY LOW. ONLY
EXCEPTIONS WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF SCATTERED MAINLY LATE NIGHT
AND MORNING STORMS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 78 93 78 92 / 20 40 30 50
FMY 76 95 76 94 / 40 50 40 50
GIF 76 96 76 95 / 20 50 40 50
SRQ 77 92 77 91 / 30 30 40 50
BKV 75 94 73 93 / 20 40 20 50
SPG 80 93 79 91 / 20 30 30 50
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...14/MROCZKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
350 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
.DISCUSSION...
...LITTLE HEAT RELIEF NEXT FEW DAYS...
TODAY-TONIGHT...DEEP EASTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH DEEP
LAYER HIGH CENTERED TO OUR NORTH. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL
EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA SO THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
WILL PUSH INLAND A LITTLE FASTER IN THE SOUTH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND MODEL OUTPUT SHOW THAT CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL THE BOUNDARY IS WEST OF I-95. IN FACT...THERE IS NO
INDICATION OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTH COAST EITHER.
THE HRRR DOES SHOW SOME CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR (GFS HAS
LITTLE AND POPS ARE 10 PERCENT OR LESS). WILL GO WITH SMALL POPS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE RIDGE
POSITION SUGGESTS LATE DAY BOUNDARY COLLISIONS OCCURRING THERE.
WITH LITTLE CONVECTION EXPECTED AND OCCURRING LATE...MAX TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO NUDGE UP WITH SOME INTERIOR TEMPS REACHING 96-97
DEGREES AND HEAT INDICES IN THE LOW ONE HUNDREDS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 70S...EXCEPT MOS IS
INDICATING 77-78 DEGREES FROM METRO ORLANDO TO LAKE COUNTY (WHERE
THE HOTTEST DAYTIME READINGS OCCUR).
THU-FRI...LITTLE CHANGE OF DEEP LAYER RIDGE WITH HOT TEMPERATURES
PERSISTING. SFC RIDGE AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL FL WILL PRODUCE A LIGHT
S/SE FLOW WITH SEA BREEZE MOVING INLAND EACH DAY. THIS WILL LEAD
TO AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST TO MID
90S INLAND WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 100- 104 DEGREES. ISO/SCT
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MAINLY BE LIMITED TO THE
INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY BOUNDARY COLLISIONS NEAR TO WEST OF
I-4 LATE AFT AND TOWARDS SUNSET. CONVECTION WILL DECREASE INTO THE
LATE EVENING WITH RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY ENDING BY MIDNIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE LOW-MID 70S.
SAT-TUE...MODELS SHOW MID LEVEL S/W...REMNANTS FROM BILL...SHIFTING
EAST FROM CENTRAL U.S. TO MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE WEEKEND AND
OFFSHORE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS ACTS TO SLIGHTLY WEAKEN AND
SHIFT SOUTHWARD THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE. HOWEVER LITTLE CHANGE
IN WX PATTERN EXPECTED WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUING
AND SCATTERED AFT CONVECTION MAINLY LIMITED TO INLAND LOCATIONS
EACH DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR WITH LOW CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON STORMS AT THE
INTERIOR TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA
WILL PRODUCE A MOSTLY GENTLE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST BREEZE. THE SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL INCREASE SPEEDS ALONG THE COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON...THEN OFFSHORE IN THE NORTH THROUGH EVENING...BUT STILL
BELOW 15 KNOTS. SEAS 1-3 FEET. LITTLE SHOWER COVERAGE INDICATED.
THU-SUN...SFC RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A GENTLE S/SE BREEZE GENERALLY PERSISTING
OVER THE WATERS. EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP EACH AFT WITH
WINDS BECOMING E/SE NEAR THE COAST UP TO 10-13 KTS. SEAS WILL RANGE
FROM 1-3 FEET. THREAT FOR OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS REMAINS VERY LOW
AS AFT CONVECTION WILL MAINLY BE LIMITED TO INLAND LOCATIONS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 92 75 92 75 / 10 10 20 10
MCO 95 76 95 75 / 20 10 30 20
MLB 89 76 90 75 / 10 10 10 10
VRB 90 75 91 74 / 10 10 10 10
LEE 96 78 95 77 / 20 20 40 20
SFB 96 77 94 76 / 20 10 30 20
ORL 95 77 95 76 / 20 10 30 20
FPR 89 73 91 73 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LASCODY
LONG TERM....WEITLICH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
1128 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES INTO THE WEEKEND WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN WEAKEN OVER THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE RETURNING BY MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONGOING FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND ONLY SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS
MADE WITH THE LATE MORNING UPDATE.
IT WILL BE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY FOR THE REGION AS AN
ANONYMOUSLY STRONG...DEEP LAYERED RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE CORE OF THE HOTTEST 850 HPA TEMPERATURES
THAT HAVE BEEN SITTING OVER THE PEE DEE AND THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN OF NORTH CAROLINA FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL SINK SOUTH
THIS MORNING AND BE POSITIONED OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO HIGHS 100-102 INLAND WITH MID-UPPER 90S JUST INLAND
FROM THE BEACHES AS 850 HPA TEMPERATURES WARM TO 22C. HIGHS
CERTAINLY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH 100 DEGREES AT KSAV AND KCHS
FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR WHICH WOULD BE NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR
THE DATE...BUT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL
TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION THAT FIRES TODAY.
DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX OUT IN THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 THEN
POOL IN THE MID-UPPER 70S ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES MID-LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE RESULTANT SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND. THIS WILL
PRODUCE MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES OF 105-110 INLAND AND UPWARDS OF 112
JUST INLAND FROM THE BEACHES FOR SEVERAL HOURS--HOTTEST IN THE
BEAUFORT-DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON-AWENDAW CORRIDOR WHERE THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT DEWPOINT POOLING WILL OCCUR ALONG THE RESULTANT. A
HEAT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN FORCE FOR ALL AREAS THROUGH 7PM.
DESPITE THE WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND LARGE SUBSIDENCE
NOTED ON VARIOUS FORECAST SOUNDINGS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SEA BREEZE
DURING PEAK HEATING. THE HRRR AND NSSL-WRF ARE BOTH AGGRESSIVE IN
DEVELOPING THE CONVECTION DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT THIS
SEEMS A BIT TOO EARLY FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION BASED ON THE
TIMING THAT HAS OCCURRED THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. THEREFORE THE
FORECAST SHOWS 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES OF RAINFALL AFTER 3 PM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL END QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF INSOLATION. LINGERING CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE YIELDING
CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. FULL DECOUPLING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER APPEARS UNLIKELY...EXCEPT MAYBE ACROSS FAR INLAND
AREAS...SO EXPECT ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 70S INLAND TO THE LOWER 80S AT THE BEACHES. THE
RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS COULD BE CHALLENGED AT KCHS AND KCXM WHILE
THE RECORD AT KSAV LOOKS SAFE.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WHILE A WESTERLY FLOW OCCURS ALOFT. AS A RESULT...VERY WARM
CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE AS STRONG SFC HEATING OCCURS UNDER
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. BY SATURDAY...THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL
GRADUALLY RETREAT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IN RESPONSE TO LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
THE MAIN ISSUE WILL CONTINUE TO BE HOT AND FAIRLY HUMID CONDITIONS
PRODUCING HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 DEGREES DURING PEAK HEATING
HOURS...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON SFC DEWPTS...WHICH WILL LIKELY MIX OUT
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DURING PEAK HEATING EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE BEHIND AN INLAND MOVING SEABREEZE DURING
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. BY SATURDAY...HEAT INDEX VALUES
COULD FALL JUST SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA DUE TO SLIGHTLY MORE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND CLOUD COVER.
1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE 100
DEGREES AWAY FROM THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON...BUT THE INCREASING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD LIMIT FULL HEATING POTENTIAL
A FEW DEGREES. HAVE THEREFORE MAINTAINED HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER
90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN MID 90S ON SATURDAY. LOW
TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD EACH NIGHT...IN THE MID/UPPER 70S AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE MID LVL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST
WILL GRADUALLY RETREAT OFFSHORE IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
EASTWARD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. A LOW AMPLITUDE MID LVL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW THE SFC LOW...BUT WILL DO
LITTLE TO STOP ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE FROM REBUILDING OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY MIDWEEK. AS A RESULT...THE PATTERN
WILL SUPPORT MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND
TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME...HAVE MAINTAINED
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S EACH AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE MILD...IN THE MID/UPPER 70S AWAY FROM THE COASTLINE.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING AFTERNOON SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BEGINNING ON FRIDAY
AND LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL HOLD 10-15 KT WITH SEAS 1-3 FT.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
COASTAL WATERS INTO THE WEEKEND. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
GENERALLY PEAK AROUND 15 KTS NEAR AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS
AND DURING NOCTURNAL SURGES THROUGH SATURDAY. A GRADUAL ENHANCEMENT
TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS THEN ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. AS A RESULT...15-20 KT
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY BEYOND 10 NM FROM THE COAST. SEAS
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1-3 FT THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN GRADUALLY BUILD TO
2-4 FT HIGHEST BEYOND 10 NM FROM THE COAST.
RIP CURRENTS...EAST/SOUTHEAST SWELL OF 9-10 SECONDS COMBINED WITH
ONSHORE WINDS OF 10-15 KT WILL SUPPORT A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS AT ALL BEACHES TODAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS JUNE 17TH...
KCHS...77 SET IN 1991.
KCXM...82 SET IN 1998.
KSAV...78 SET IN 1886.
RECORDS FOR JUNE 17TH...
KCHS...101 SET IN 1981.
KCXM...100 SET IN 1921.
KSAV...101 SET IN 1944.
RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR JUNE 18TH...
KCHS...75 SET IN 1985.
KCXM...81 SET IN 1998.
KSAV...79 SET IN 1944.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ087-088-
099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ040-042>045-
047>052.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...JAQ/ST
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...ST/DPB
MARINE...ST/DPB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
912 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
A SMALL SHORTWAVE HELPED PRODUCE LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES BETWEEN 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR WERE REPORTED EARLIER THIS
EVENING ACROSS CLAY COUNTY. WE RECEIVED REPORTS OF ROAD FLOODING
AND MOST DITCHES COMPLETELY FULL. THE RAP MODELS DEPICTION OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2 INCHES APPEARS ACCURATE BASED ON
RAINFALL EFFICIENCY. THE SHORTWAVE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS
EVENING, WITH A BREAK IN THE HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE LATE THIS
EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL RAIN AND STORM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BEFORE MORNING SOUTH OF I-72 AND
ESPECIALLY TOWARD I-70. POP AND WEATHER GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
FOR CURRENT TRENDS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND TO REMOVE POPS FOR PEORIA
AND NORTH, AS DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE NORTHEAST SHOULD
PROVIDE A RELATIVELY SHARP CUT-OFF TO THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
PRECIP SHIELD OVERNIGHT.
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR OUR SOUTHEAST 6 COUNTIES LOOKS ON TRACK
FOR THE EXPECTED PRECIP FROM THE REMNANTS OF BILL THROUGH
SATURDAY.
UPDATED FORECAST INFO IS ALREADY AVAILABLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS SOUTHEAST OF A CANTON TO PEORIA TO MINONK LINE
AT MID AFTERNOON. A FEW AREAS HAVE RECEIVED A QUICK 0.75 TO 1.25
INCHES IN LESS THAN AN HOUR IN TROPICAL AIRMASS WITH SOME WATER
OVER A FEW ROADS SE OF THE IL RIVER. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
RUNNING FROM 1.5 TO 2.25 INCHES FROM THE IL RIVER SOUTHEAST AND
SUPPORT THESE HEAVY RAINS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST SE OF THE IL
RIVER WILL PRESS SOUTHEAST TOWARD I-70 BY DAWN FRIDAY. MEANWHILE
1007 MB LOW PRESSURE (REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL) OVER EAST
CENTRAL OK WILL SLOWLY TRACK ENE INTO NORTH CENTRAL AR BY 12Z/FRI.
MODELS GENERALLY SHOW MORE WIDESPREAD QPF FROM I-72 SOUTH TONIGHT
AND HAVE HIT POPS HIGHEST IN THESE AREAS ALONG WITH HEAVIER QPF
NEAR A HALF INCH WITH LOCALLY 1 INCH AMOUNTS. JUST SLIGHT CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NW OF THE IL RIVER TONIGHT AND LIKELY
DRY OVER FAR NW CWA OVER KNOX AND STARK COUNTIES. LOWS TONIGHT
RANGE FROM LOWER 60S NORTHERN COUNTIES TO MID TO UPPER 60S FROM
I-72 SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
REMNANTS OF BILL WILL CONTINUE TO EFFECT THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
CWA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS DIFFER SOME ON TIMING OF THESE
REMNANTS INTO THE WEEKEND BUT SEEM TO AGREE ON TRACK/LOCATION AND
HOW FAR NORTH THE HEAVIEST PCPN WILL BE THROUGH THE FRI AND FRI
NIGHT PERIOD. THIS PCPN WILL BE SLOW MOVING SO HEAVY RAINFALL IS
DEFINITELY A THREAT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUED
FOR THUR NIGHT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI NIGHT. PCPN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE SATURDAY BUT THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING SHOULD HAVE ENDED
IN THE SOUTHEAST. ONCE REMNANTS OF BILL LEAVE THE AREA TO THE
EAST...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
BRING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FOR SAT NIGHT. THIS
FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO BY SUNDAY
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 85 TO 90 RANGE.
THE FRONT THAT MOVES IN SAT NIGHT WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER THE AREA
FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AND THEN WOBBLE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CWA ALL THE WAY THROUGH WED NIGHT. BY THEN IT
APPEARS THE FRONT COULD LIFT BACK NORTH SO THAT THE CHANCE OF PCPN
COULD END BY THURSDAY. HOWEVER WITH THIS BEING A WEEK AWAY...THE
FORECAST COULD CHANGE AND BRING THE PCPN BACK INTO THE AREA.
WITH THE CWA BEING SOMEWHAT IN THE WARM SECTOR...TEMPS WILL REMAIN
IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
A BAND OF RAIN AHEAD OF THE REMNANTS OF BILL WILL AFFECT OUR
SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF SPI AND DEC PRIMARILY, WITH LIGHT RAIN. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE MOST PART OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS,
WITH SOME MVFR VIS IN FOG POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS
ARE PROJECTED TO DEVELOP JUST AFTER SUNRISE FOR ALL TERMINALS
EXCEPT PIA, AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH BILL CONTINUE TO SURGE
INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ILLINOIS. PERIODIC SHOWER CHANCES WILL
ALSO LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW FOR SPI AND DEC, WITH CMI
RAIN CHANCES MAINLY IN THE MORNING. PIA AND BMI COULD REMAIN DRY
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS WILL START SOUTHWEST, THEN SHIFT AROUND TO THE EAST-
NORTHEAST AS THE CIRCULATION OF BILL BEGINS TO AFFECT SURFACE
WINDS IN OUR FORECAST AREA.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR ILZ066>068-
071>073.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SHIMON
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM...AUTEN
AVIATION...SHIMON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1135 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
THE 01Z/8PM SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A SLIGHT MOVEMENT OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE NORTH INTO OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAINFALL SOUTH OF I-70, THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE WILL CAUSE SHOWERS TO OVERSPREAD AREAS SOUTH OF I-72
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE FRONT MAY REACH AS FAR NORTH AS I-74
BY 12Z. HRRR AND RAP OUTPUT INDICATE MOST OF THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS
AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN S OF I-72 IN THE SIDE OF
THE FRONT WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO 70F. THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE, BASED ON THE WETTING RAINS THIS
EVENING AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. CLOUD COVER WILL THICKEN NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT, KEEPING
LOWS ON THE MILD SIDE WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS. LIGHT FOG WILL
INCREASE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT WHERE WINDS BECOME LIGHT
LATER TONIGHT.
UPDATES THIS EVENING WERE DONE TO THE POP AND WEATHER GRIDS TO
SLOW DOWN THE NORTHWARD PUSH OF RAIN, WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
LOW TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS. UPDATED INFO IS ALREADY AVAILABLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
AFTERNOON SURFACE DATA SHOWS BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
IL. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...UNSTABLE AIR WITH MUCAPE OF
3000 CONTINUES TO FEED FROM MO AND TO THE SOUTH (AS SEEN IN THE
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY). MODELS MOVE THE PCPN NORTH AS THE FRONT
MOVES NORTH WITH THE APPROACHING ND UPPER WAVE. THE RESULT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCTION AND A CONTINUED FLASH FLOOD THREAT OVERNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
WET WEATHER AND POTENTIAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE IT STILL APPEARS
UNLIKELY THAT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A DRY DAY BEFORE
MONDAY, THERE ARE STILL PERIODS THAT APPEAR FAVORED FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD & HEAVIER RAINFALL, AS WELL AS VICE VERSA. THE BIGGEST
FLY IN THE OINTMENT REMAINS THE DISPOSITION OF THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL STORM BILL. THERE IS STILL A NOTABLE SPREAD IN THE
TIMING/TRACK OF THE SYSTEM, PRECIPITATION SPREAD AROUND THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION, AS WELL WITH INTRA-MODEL RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. THE
MOST NOTABLE MODEL TREND THAT IS AGREED UPON HAS BEEN FOR A SLOWER
ARRIVAL OF THE REMNANTS, WITH SOME OF THE SLOWEST SOLUTIONS (12
ECMWF FOR EXAMPLE) KEEPING THE ASSOCIATED RAIN THREAT AROUND WELL
INTO SATURDAY.
THE GENERALLY W-E ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STALLED OVER
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WILL LIFT BACK NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY PUSHING EAST
INTO THE PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BOOST SHOWER/STORM CHANCES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL THE WAVE PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN THE FORECAST ARE SHOULD SEE A RELATIVE LULL IN
THE RAIN THREAT, LIKE TODAY, UNTIL THE REMNANTS OF BOB APPROACH AND
EVENTUALLY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE BEST
FORCING AND RAINFALL THREAT WITH THE REMNANTS ARRIVING THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LIKELY ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
OF AROUND 2" OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL THE TROPICAL
REMNANTS DEPART SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ANYWHERE A
SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM GETS GOING AND/OR WHERE NUMEROUS RAIN
EVENTS OCCUR. ON THE UPSIDE, THE TROPICAL-LIKE AIRMASS AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK LAPSE RATE, AS WELL AS MODEST SHEAR PROFILES, ARE
NOT CONDUCIVE TO MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
ANOTHER BRIEF LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL FOLLOW THE
REMNANTS OF BILL UNTIL A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE
SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT, COOLER AND
LESS HUMID AIR WILL BE ABLE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA, LIKELY
RESULTING IN A DRY START TO THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
A SHORTWAVE ADVANCING FROM SOUTHERN MISSOURI ALONG THE FRONT
LIFTING NORTH FROM I-70 WILL TRIGGER MORE WIDESPREAD RAINS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS THE REST OF THE NIGHT. SPI ALREADY HAS STEADY
-RA, AND THOSE CONDITIONS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE
TERMINAL SITES TONIGHT. EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD AFFECT THE SOUTHERN TAFS OF SPI AND DEC. PONDING OF
WATER ON TRAVEL SURFACES COULD DEVELOP.
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR LATER TONIGHT, WITH LIFR
400FT STILL INDICATED FOR BMI. VIS MAY DIP TO IFR TOWARD SUNRISE,
IN LIGHTER WINDS AND HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS.
A BREAK IN THE RAINS IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE
WEDNESDAY MORNING. STORMS COULD REDEVELOP WED AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY ALONG ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION LATER
TONIGHT. WE KEPT VCTS WED MID AFTN TO EARLY EVE AS A RESULT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM EAST TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AS THE FRONT
PROGRESSES NORTH OF EACH TERMINAL SITE. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN LESS THAN 10KT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR ILZ052-054>057-
061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SHIMON
SHORT TERM...GOETSCH
LONG TERM...BAK
AVIATION...SHIMON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
335 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR THE IA/MN BORDER TO THE QUAD CITIES
AND THEN TO NORTHERN INDIANA. NORTH OF THE FRONT DEWPOINTS WERE IN
THE LOWER 60S (IN THE 50S IN WI) BUT TO THE SOUTH DEWS WERE WELL
INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE CWA WERE IN
THE 70S WHICH HAS BEEN HELD DOWN BY EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING INTO SW MN AND INTO WESTERN IA AND THEN
TO NW KS. MIDWEST MOSAIC RADAR LOOPS INDICATE A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OCCURING IN THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT
FROM CENTRAL MO TO WESTERN IL AND THEN INTO EASTERN IL. ELSEWHERE...
A FEW STRONGER STORMS WERE NOTED IN NORTHCENTRAL IOWA AND SE MN
WHERE SBCAPES WERE 2500 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WAS STRONG AT 50
KNOTS.
ACROSS THE DVN CWA DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER INSTABILITY WAS VERY
MINIMAL AND SHEAR IS WEAK AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THIS WAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATERS IN THE CWA WERE AROUND 1.5 INCHES WITH THE
OVER 2 INCH PWATS FROM TX TO SOUTHERN IL. TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL
WAS LOCATED IN THE DALLAS/FT. WORTH METROPLEX EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
FORECAST FOCUS ON CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TONIGHT...OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE VERY MUCH IN DISAGREEMENT WITH
REGARDS TO CONVECTIVE TRENDS. ECMWF IS ESSENTIALLY DRY WHILE THE
GFS IS THE WETTEST. THE NAM IGNITES THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN OUR
FAR SOUTH WHILE THE HI-RES HRRR MESO MODEL BRINGS WEAKENING
THUNDERSTORMS INTO OUR NW CWA THIS EVENING AND LEAVES THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT DRY. I WILL ESSENTIALLY BE TAKING A MIDDLE
OF THE ROAD APPROACH AND LEAVING POPS IN THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE.
FORCING/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK ALONG WITH
MINIMAL INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CWA AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL NEED TO
MENTION AT LEAST A SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED BUT THERE MAY BE
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS ESPECIALLY BEFORE
SUNSET. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NORTH TO
LOWER 70S SOUTH.
THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY PROBABLY ALONG
HIGHWAY 34 AS THE REMNANTS OF BILL TRACKS NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON. OUR NORTH WILL GRADUALLY SEE DRIER
AIR WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 50S DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL REMAIN IN THE JUICY AIRMASS
AS THE FRONT STALLS. AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY SO I WILL
MAINTAIN THE 40-50 POPS. THE BULK OF THE MODELS KEEP THE HEAVIEST
RAINS SOUTH OF THE DVN CWA. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL..NOW SHOWN TRACKING WELL TO THE
SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN MO INTO SOUTHERN IL THU NIGHT INTO FRI
NIGHT...WILL KEEP MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A QUIET WEATHER
REGIME FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. MORE ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS LATE
SATURDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS A FRONT DROPPING
SOUTH INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BECOMES STALLED OUT. THIS WILL
PROVIDE NEARLY DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
THURSDAY NIGHT...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER ALBERTA IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD SE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER
SHOT OF DRY EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WELL INTO EASTERN IA THROUGH
MIDDAY FRI. THE ONLY POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE ALONG
THE REMNANT SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT WASHES OUT FROM NORTHERN MO INTO
CENTRAL IL OVERNIGHT AND HAVE LOW POPS IN PLACE. ANY THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE LIMITED TO EARLY EVENING...ANTICIPATING THE VERY LOW MODEL
MUCAPES AND STABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE OVERNIGHT. SOMEWHAT
LIKE THIS MORNING...THE DRY AIR WITH DEWPOINTS LOWERING INTO THE 50S
OVER IL...WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO COOL INTO THE MID 50S NE TO
LOWER 60S SW. WITH AT LEAST HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER LIKELY...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 FRIDAY WITH
SURFACE WINDS BACKING TO THE SOUTH BY EVENING AS THE HIGH RETREATS
EASTWARD. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
SOUTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SOUTHERLY WINDS EDGE DEWPOINTS BACK
UPWARDS AND THE REMNANT WEAK CONVERGENT BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR CONVECTION.
SATURDAY...BILL DISSIPATES TO THE SE AS AN INCOMING FRONT AND
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH BECOME THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURES. STRONG THETAE ADVECTION FEEDING INTO THE REGION
IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AN MCS THAT IS LIKELY
TO PUSH THROUGH WITH THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY
POPS ARE MAINTAINED. HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS...WITH PW VALUES POSSIBLE
NEAR 2 INCHES...WILL BRING THE FIRST THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN BACK INTO
THE FORECAST. STRONG PREFRONTAL WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL SEND HIGHS
BACK INTO THE 80S WHILE DEWPOINTS LIKELY RETURN TO THE LOWER 70S.
THIS WILL LEAD TO UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING
WINDS WITH SEVERE STORMS AS OUTLINED IN THE SPC DAY 4 SEVERE OUTLOOK
15 PERCENT AREA CENTERED OVER EASTERN IA.
SUNDAY THROUGH WED...THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW HAVE BETTER AGREEMENT
DEPICTING THE WEST TO EAST FRONT...SUPPRESSED TO NORTHERN MO SUNDAY
NIGHT...LIFTING BACK NORTH AND BECOMING STALLED OUT ROUGHLY ALONG
HIGHWAY 30 BY TUE NIGHT. THE MODELS THEN DEPART WITH THE ECMWF
LIFTING THE BOUNDARY NORTH INTO MN AND SOUTHERN WI WHILE THE GFS IS
FURTHER SOUTH. EITHER WAY...WITH AN ACTIVE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
AND UPPER JET TRACK JUST TO THE NORTH...THE SETUP IS PRIME FOR AN
ACTIVE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES
THROUGHOUT. FOR NOW...HAVE HIGHER POPS IN THE NORTH CLOSER TO THE
MOST LIKELY FRONTAL POSITION. WITH AN OPEN FEED OF GULF MOISTURE...
SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE A DAILY THREAT. THIS WOULD
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF FLOODING ON AREA RIVERS
THAT WILL LIKELY HAVE RETURNED TO THEIR BANKS BY THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
IFR CONDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON GRADUALLY BECOMING VFR CIGS LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO EASTERN IA AFTER
05Z/18 BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE COVERAGE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FOR NOW HAVE INCLUDED A VCTS AT KCID/KDBQ THIS
EVENING. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN NORTHWEST WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. WIND SPEEDS SHOOULD BE LESS THAN 10
KNOTS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...HAASE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1150 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
PLEASANT DAY IN STORE ACROSS MOST OF THE DVN CWA WITH AN EAST
WIND BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA...COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS.
PRECIPITABLE WATERS WERE LESS THAN AN INCH AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS
WERE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. HOWEVER...IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES DEWS WERE IN THE MID 60S AND PWATS A BIT OVER AN INCH.
FARTHER SOUTH THE REALLY HIGH PWATS WERE LURKING WITH OVER 2 INCHES
AS YOU GET DOWN TOWARDS ST. LOUIS. TO THE NORTH DEWPOINTS WERE
ONLY IN THE 40S OVER PORTIONS OF MN EASTWARD TO MI.
3 PM TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S IN THE CWA
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...OUR FAR
SOUTH WAS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A LARGER CLOUD SHIELD THAT WAS
COVERING THE MID MS VALLEY. THIS WAS AHEAD OF LANDFALLING TROPICAL
STORM BILL IN SE TX.
MOSAIC MIDWEST RADAR LOOPS INDICATE A LINE OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...FROM SE KS TO
CENTRAL MO AND INTO SOUTHERN IL. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE SHORT TERM.
TONIGHT...DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO OUR NORTHEAST CWA
ON EAST WINDS WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 40S FOR A TIME
OVERNIGHT. IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA DEWS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 60S.
OPERATIONAL MODELS INCLUDING THE HI-RES MESO HRRR INDICATE WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT DEVELOPING IN OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AS A LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES
A BIT. THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH FORCING AND INSTABILITY TO ALLOW
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SO I WILL HAVE
HIGH END CHANCE POPS. DRIER AIR FARTHER NORTH SHOULD DISSIPATE ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY TRYING TO WORK NORTHWARD. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH AT MOST LOCATIONS IN
OUR FAR SOUTH. OUR FAR SOUTH COULD GET LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. CLOUD
COVER WILL PROGRESS NORTHWARD AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALSO SHIFTS
A BIT NORTHWARD. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S
IN FAR NW IL TO THE MID 60S FAR SOUTH.
WEDNESDAY...WEAK LOW LEVEL JET VEERS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND
OHIO VALLEY WITH THE FORCING GRADUALLY PUSHING AWAY FROM THE DVN
CWA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DRY DAY IN OUR NORTHERN CWA WITH
CHANCE POPS IN OUR FAR SOUTH CLOSER TO THE NEARLY STALLED FRONT
WELL TO OUR SOUTH. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE AREA REMAINS
HIGHLY VULNERABLE TO CONTINUED RIVER FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING DUE
TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST WEEK. FROM MID TO LATE
WEEK...THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL
MOVING INTO THE TX GULF COAST...WHICH MODEL CONSENSUS NOW HAS
CURVING NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THEN TRACKING E-NE
ACROSS CENTRAL MO INTO SOUTHERN IL FRI AND SAT...WHICH WOULD SPARE
THE FORECAST AREA FROM HEAVY RAINFALL.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA WED NIGHT WILL WARRANT LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT
QPF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS THEN LAYS OUT A BOUNDARY FROM
NORTHERN IL NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND RETURNING
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REQUIRE KEEPING AT LEAST LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE PASSING LOW THROUGHOUT. OVER THE REST OF THE
AREA...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES IS SHOWN SENDING A
BACKDOOR COOL FRONT AND A SURGE OF E-NE WINDS THU NIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING IN LOWER HUMIDITY AND THEN LIMIT HIGHS TO THE MID 70S TO
AROUND 80 FRI...AFTER ANOTHER DAY OF LOWER 80S THU.
SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...ONCE THE WEAKENING REMNANTS OF BILL
PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A PREFRONTAL STRONG W-SW
SURGE OF VERY WARM...MOIST AIR OUT AHEAD FEEDING INTO THE REGION.
THIS WILL BRING BACK HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND THETAE ADVECTION
ALOFT THAT MAY FUEL AN OVERNIGHT MCS WITH THE PASSING FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT...WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST ARE PLACED.
THIS WILL ALSO BE THE NEXT GREATEST THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH
SHOULD FOLLOW SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY WEATHER OR LOW PRECIPITATION
EVENTS THAT WILL ALLOW SURFACE CONDITIONS TO DRY SOME AND RIVERS TO
BEGIN RECEDING. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL FEATURE A NEARLY ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WITH THE REGION ALONG THE EDGE OF THE STRONGER WESTERLIES
WITH WARM AIR BUILDING OVER THE PLAINS AND AVAILABLE GULF MOISTURE.
THIS RING OF FIRE TYPE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT PERIODIC MCS ACTIVITY
OVER...OR POSSIBLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK ALONG WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
VFR CLOUD DECK...LOWERING TO MVFR INTO EARLY WED MORNING NORTH OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACRS MO. ALSO...ISOLATED TO SCTRD SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTH INTO WED MORNING...BUT DRY AIR ON EASTERLY LLVL
WINDS MAY LIMIT THE BETTER COVERAGE TO ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80.
SOME CHC FOR 3-5SM VSBY FOG AT BRL IN HIGHER SFC DPT POOL TOWARD
DAWN. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS BY WED AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM PUSHING ACRS MN INTO NORTHWESTERN IA...ALSO MOST CIGS
LIFTING TO VFR BY THEN AS WELL. ANOTHER CHC FOR SOME ISOLATED TO
SCTRD SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING IN TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
..12..
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1207 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
AT 12Z WEDNESDAY A 500MB WESTERLY FLOW EXTENDED FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC TO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW
SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WERE OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR LOOP
AND 500MB UPPER AIR ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL WAS LOCATED
OVER NORTH TEXAS. A 700MB TO 500MB DEFORMATION ZONE LOCATED
NORTHWEST OF TD BILL AND EXTENDED FROM SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA TO WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS. 700MB TEMPERATURES AT 12Z WEDNESDAY WERE +8C AT
NORTH PLATTE, +10C AT DODGE CITY, 12C AT DENVER. AT THE SURFACE A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO EXTEND FROM EAST CENTRAL
COLORADO INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
OUTFLOW FROM THE CONVECTION IN NORTHEAST COLORADO EARLY THIS EVENING
HAD PUSHED AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS SCOTT CITY BUT SEEMS TO HAVE LOST ITS
STEAM. SURFACE OBS AT NORTON AND PHILLIPSBURG SHOW AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THAT AREA. WOULD THINK THAT BY
SUNRISE, THIS BOUNDARY WILL HAVE PUSHED SOUTH INTO THE HAYS AREA.
THE SHORT TERM HRRR AND RAP MODELS SHOW THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHING
AS FAR SOUTH AS A HAYS TO HUGOTON LINE BY LATE MORNING BEFORE
STARTING TO WASH OUT AND RETREAT NORTHWARD. NOT SURE THAT WE WILL
SEE ANY CONVECTION FIRING IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY GIVEN THE
WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES BUT WILL LEAVE ANY CHANCES FROM THAT OUT
OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. IN RESPONSE TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SHORT
WAVE, THE MODELS HINT AT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OFF OF
THE NORTHEAST COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND MOVING POSSIBLY MOVING INTO
FAR WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING. THE GOING FORECAST HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS. ANY STORMS THAT MAKE IT INTO WESTERN KANSAS SHOULD
DIE LATER THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. WILL KEEP SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS DRY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE MODELS KEEP
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. BILL CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES TODAY ACROSS THE BOARD AS
WARMER THE COLUMN CONTINUES TO WARM AND DEEP MIXING IS EXPECTED
TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
ON THURSDAY, THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL WILL BE LOCATED
OVER NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA, WITH UPSLOPE, SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW OVER WESTERN KANSAS. WEAK NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER WESTERN KANSAS, COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID 60S, WEAK CAPPING AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY LEAD
TO LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY OVER FAR
WESTERN KANSAS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED WEAK UPPER LEVEL WINDS, THESE
STORMS MAY NOT BE SEVERE, BUT SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW, TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. ON FRIDAY, LEE
TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP A LITTLE MORE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS, BUT
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY WEAK AND GIVEN THE
LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, ANYTHING MORE THAN JUST AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS NOT EXPECTED. HIGHS OUGHT TO REACH INTO THE MID
90S ALONG THE COLORADO STATE LINE, WITH UPPER 80S IN CENTRAL
KANSAS. SATURDAY WILL BE A WARMER DAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PROGRESSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, ALONG WITH
SURFACE TROUGHING OVER WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN`T BE RULED OUT ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE
SURFACE TROUGH. HIGHS SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE MID 90S, WITH SOME
UPPER 90S ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. THERE
IS A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT OVER WESTERN KANSAS. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST
TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
WHERE A LOW TO MID LEVEL DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WILL EXIST. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S AND POSSIBLY NEAR 100 OVER WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS, WITH MAINLY MID 90S FARTHER SOUTHEAST. LOWS WILL ONLY BE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN THE
VARIOUS MODELS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY MID
TO LATE NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHWEST KANSAS TO NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. EAST OF THIS
BOUNDARY THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY AT 10
KNOTS OR LESS TODAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON, HOWEVER CLOUD BASES BASED THE 12Z BUFR SOUNDINGS WILL
BE BETWEEN 3000 AND 7000FT AGL. TONIGHT THE LIGHT WINDS WILL BACK
MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP BASED ON A
SHALLOW LAYER OF NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE FORECAST BY THE 12Z NAM
BUFR SOUNDINGS. AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE PAST POOR PERFORMANCE OF
THE NAM WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY FOG IN
THE 18Z TAFS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 87 63 87 65 / 10 10 10 10
GCK 89 64 89 65 / 20 20 10 20
EHA 90 64 90 64 / 20 30 20 20
LBL 89 64 89 64 / 10 10 10 10
HYS 88 65 88 65 / 20 20 10 10
P28 86 67 86 68 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
704 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
OUTFLOW FROM THE CONVECTION IN NORTHEAST COLORADO EARLY THIS EVENING
HAD PUSHED AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS SCOTT CITY BUT SEEMS TO HAVE LOST ITS
STEAM. SURFACE OBS AT NORTON AND PHILLIPSBURG SHOW AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THAT AREA. WOULD THINK THAT BY
SUNRISE, THIS BOUNDARY WILL HAVE PUSHED SOUTH INTO THE HAYS AREA.
THE SHORT TERM HRRR AND RAP MODELS SHOW THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHING
AS FAR SOUTH AS A HAYS TO HUGOTON LINE BY LATE MORNING BEFORE
STARTING TO WASH OUT AND RETREAT NORTHWARD. NOT SURE THAT WE WILL
SEE ANY CONVECTION FIRING IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY GIVEN THE
WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES BUT WILL LEAVE ANY CHANCES FROM THAT OUT
OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. IN RESPONSE TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SHORT
WAVE, THE MODELS HINT AT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OFF OF
THE NORTHEAST COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND MOVING POSSIBLY MOVING INTO
FAR WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING. THE GOING FORECAST HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS. ANY STORMS THAT MAKE IT INTO WESTERN KANSAS SHOULD
DIE LATER THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. WILL KEEP SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS DRY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE MODELS KEEP
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. BILL CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES TODAY ACROSS THE BOARD AS
WARMER THE COLUMN CONTINUES TO WARM AND DEEP MIXING IS EXPECTED
TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
ON THURSDAY, THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL WILL BE LOCATED
OVER NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA, WITH UPSLOPE, SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW OVER WESTERN KANSAS. WEAK NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER WESTERN KANSAS, COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID 60S, WEAK CAPPING AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY LEAD
TO LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY OVER FAR
WESTERN KANSAS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED WEAK UPPER LEVEL WINDS, THESE
STORMS MAY NOT BE SEVERE, BUT SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW, TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. ON FRIDAY, LEE
TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP A LITTLE MORE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS, BUT
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY WEAK AND GIVEN THE
LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, ANYTHING MORE THAN JUST AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS NOT EXPECTED. HIGHS OUGHT TO REACH INTO THE MID
90S ALONG THE COLORADO STATE LINE, WITH UPPER 80S IN CENTRAL
KANSAS. SATURDAY WILL BE A WARMER DAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PROGRESSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, ALONG WITH
SURFACE TROUGHING OVER WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN`T BE RULED OUT ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE
SURFACE TROUGH. HIGHS SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE MID 90S, WITH SOME
UPPER 90S ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. THERE
IS A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT OVER WESTERN KANSAS. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST
TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
WHERE A LOW TO MID LEVEL DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WILL EXIST. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S AND POSSIBLY NEAR 100 OVER WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS, WITH MAINLY MID 90S FARTHER SOUTHEAST. LOWS WILL ONLY BE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN THE
VARIOUS MODELS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY MID
TO LATE NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL GENERALLY RESULT
IN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH THE HIGHEST
SPEEDS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
MAY OCCUR NEAR KHYS OR EVEN KGCK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 87 64 89 65 / 10 10 10 10
GCK 88 62 92 65 / 20 20 10 20
EHA 89 63 93 64 / 20 30 20 20
LBL 88 63 90 64 / 10 10 10 10
HYS 89 64 90 65 / 20 20 10 10
P28 85 66 89 68 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
606 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2015
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 157 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
08Z water vapor shows a similar picture to yesterday. Just with
tropical storm Bill now over south TX while the mean westerlies
remain over the northern half of the U.S. The wrench in the forecast
is a dying MCS over south central NEB. At 04Z observations showed a
weak area of low pressure along the NEB and SD state line with a
weak boundary trailing into northeast CO.
For today and tonight, the forecast area is expected to remain in
between the remnants of Bill to the south and the faster mid level
flow over the northern plains. Models show the weak boundary to the
north stalling out across NEB this afternoon which could provide a
focus for convection this afternoon and overnight. However with the
MCS likely putting an outflow boundary out into north central KS,
there could be a little better chance for convection to form across
northern KS this afternoon. Some of the short term runs like the
HRRR/RAP/ARW support this idea of convection developing in the heat
of the day across north central KS and along the NEB state line.
With this in mind have some 30 percent chance POPs across north
central KS by the mid afternoon hours. Some instability is expected
to develop with model progs showing around 2000 J/kg. There may be a
small chance for a strong storm or two to form. However deep layer
shear is expected to remain rather modest around 25 KTS which may
lead to disorganized storm structure and behaving as ordinary cells.
The day shift will need to monitor. To the south, Bill should remain
well south of the forecast area through tonight. Have maintained
some chance POPs across far southeastern sections of the forecast
area to blend with neighboring offices.
Highs today are expected to be a little warmer with better
insolation anticipated across the northern sections of the forecast
area. Have mid 80s going for areas that should see the sun today.
East central KS may have more more clouds blow off from Bill.
Because of this have highs in the lower 80s. For tonight, there are
no signs of cold air advection or dryer air moving in, so lows in
the mid to upper 60s are expected to prevail.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 157 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
At the start of the long term period, the remnants of T.S. Bill
should be over Oklahoma. The models have been consistent with the
movement of Bill lifting it through the Ozarks before it gets caught
up in the westerlies and carried off the east. Will keep small
rain chances in our southeast counties even through the models
keep the QPF associated with Bill just southeast of the forecast
area.
Meanwhile, fast zonal westerly flow continues across the northern
tier states. The frontal boundary and sensible weather associated
with shortwave energy in the northern stream should remain north
of Kansas through Friday.
Northeast Kansas will be between Bill and the westerlies to the
north thus mainly dry. Easterly boundary layer flow around Bill
will shift to the south by Friday evening as Bill departs to the
east.
Both the 00Z GFS/ECMWF continue to build an upper ridge into the
central plains from the desert southwest this weekend and early
next week. A weak cold front is still expected to reach northern
Kansas Saturday night before lifting back north on Sunday. The 00Z
ECMWF is much more bullish with it`s QPF on Sunday over northeast
Kansas compared to the GFS. With building heights, really don`t
expect any significant frontal push into Kansas and I would not be
surprised if the front ever makes it as far south as I70. Will
continue small POPS Saturday night through Sunday evening due to
the boundary being in the area and an modestly unstable airmass to
work with. Forcing will be weak and with warming temperatures
aloft should limit precipitation coverage. The ECMWF looks
overdone with it`s QPF based on the above.
By early next week, the upper level ridge builds over the central
plains. The result will be dry and very warm weather just in time
for summer. Temperatures will be above normal for Saturday onward
and expect several days of highs in the 90s across the area.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 606 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
NAM and RAP forecast soundings show the boundary layer mixing out
by 14Z. Therefore have the fog ending between 14 and 15Z.
Otherwise think VFR conditions should prevail once the fog burns
off. Think precip chances for the terminals is to low to include.
The exception would be if outflow from the early morning MCS is
able to move into MHK. Then there may be an isolated storms impact
the terminal.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Johnson
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
341 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
OUTFLOW FROM THE CONVECTION IN NORTHEAST COLORADO EARLY THIS EVENING
HAD PUSHED AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS SCOTT CITY BUT SEEMS TO HAVE LOST ITS
STEAM. SURFACE OBS AT NORTON AND PHILLIPSBURG SHOW AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THAT AREA. WOULD THINK THAT BY
SUNRISE, THIS BOUNDARY WILL HAVE PUSHED SOUTH INTO THE HAYS AREA.
THE SHORT TERM HRRR AND RAP MODELS SHOW THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHING
AS FAR SOUTH AS A HAYS TO HUGOTON LINE BY LATE MORNING BEFORE
STARTING TO WASH OUT AND RETREAT NORTHWARD. NOT SURE THAT WE WILL
SEE ANY CONVECTION FIRING IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY GIVEN THE
WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES BUT WILL LEAVE ANY CHANCES FROM THAT OUT
OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. IN RESPONSE TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SHORT
WAVE, THE MODELS HINT AT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OFF OF
THE NORTHEAST COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND MOVING POSSIBLY MOVING INTO
FAR WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING. THE GOING FORECAST HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS. ANY STORMS THAT MAKE IT INTO WESTERN KANSAS SHOULD
DIE LATER THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. WILL KEEP SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS DRY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE MODELS KEEP
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. BILL CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES TODAY ACROSS THE BOARD AS
WARMER THE COLUMN CONTINUES TO WARM AND DEEP MIXING IS EXPECTED
TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
ON THURSDAY, THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL WILL BE LOCATED
OVER NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA, WITH UPSLOPE, SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW OVER WESTERN KANSAS. WEAK NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER WESTERN KANSAS, COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID 60S, WEAK CAPPING AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY LEAD
TO LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY OVER FAR
WESTERN KANSAS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED WEAK UPPER LEVEL WINDS, THESE
STORMS MAY NOT BE SEVERE, BUT SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW, TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. ON FRIDAY, LEE
TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP A LITTLE MORE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS, BUT
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY WEAK AND GIVEN THE
LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, ANYTHING MORE THAN JUST AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS NOT EXPECTED. HIGHS OUGHT TO REACH INTO THE MID
90S ALONG THE COLORADO STATE LINE, WITH UPPER 80S IN CENTRAL
KANSAS. SATURDAY WILL BE A WARMER DAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PROGRESSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, ALONG WITH
SURFACE TROUGHING OVER WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN`T BE RULED OUT ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE
SURFACE TROUGH. HIGHS SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE MID 90S, WITH SOME
UPPER 90S ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. THERE
IS A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT OVER WESTERN KANSAS. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST
TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
WHERE A LOW TO MID LEVEL DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WILL EXIST. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S AND POSSIBLY NEAR 100 OVER WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS, WITH MAINLY MID 90S FARTHER SOUTHEAST. LOWS WILL ONLY BE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN THE
VARIOUS MODELS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY MID
TO LATE NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM A DYING CLUSTER OF STORMS IN NORTHWEST
KANSAS SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE HAYS AND GARDEN CITY TERMINALS EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A SWITCH IN THE WINDS TO A
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS SMALL CHANCE FOR MVFR VSBYS
TO DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING AT THE TAF SITES BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS
IS LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MENTIONING IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 87 64 87 65 / 10 10 10 10
GCK 88 62 89 65 / 10 20 10 20
EHA 89 63 92 64 / 10 30 20 20
LBL 88 63 88 64 / 10 10 10 10
HYS 89 64 87 65 / 10 10 10 10
P28 85 66 89 68 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...GERARD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
304 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS
WITH KANSAS SITTING UNDER THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STRONGER
WESTERLIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING EAST OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WAS LIKELY HELPING
SUSTAIN AN MCS AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND FAR
NORTHERN KANSAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS ALSO SHOWING THE HINT OF
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
EARLY THIS MORNING. A WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY 500 MILLIBAR TROUGH
CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED FROM OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS. THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL HAVE BEEN TRACKING
NORTHWARD THROUGH TEXAS OVERNIGHT JUST TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
OUTFLOW FROM THE CONVECTION IN NORTHEAST COLORADO EARLY THIS EVENING
HAD PUSHED AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS SCOTT CITY BUT SEEMS TO HAVE LOST ITS
STEAM. SURFACE OBS AT NORTON AND PHILLIPSBURG SHOW AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THAT AREA. WOULD THINK THAT BY
SUNRISE, THIS BOUNDARY WILL HAVE PUSHED SOUTH INTO THE HAYS AREA.
THE SHORT TERM HRRR AND RAP MODELS SHOW THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHING
AS FAR SOUTH AS A HAYS TO HUGOTON LINE BY LATE MORNING BEFORE
STARTING TO WASH OUT AND RETREAT NORTHWARD. NOT SURE THAT WE WILL
SEE ANY CONVECTION FIRING IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY GIVEN THE
WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES BUT WILL LEAVE ANY CHANCES FROM THAT OUT
OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. IN RESPONSE TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SHORT
WAVE, THE MODELS HINT AT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OFF OF
THE NORTHEAST COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND MOVING POSSIBLY MOVING INTO
FAR WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING. THE GOING FORECAST HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS. ANY STORMS THAT MAKE IT INTO WESTERN KANSAS SHOULD
DIE LATER THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. WILL KEEP SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS DRY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE MODELS KEEP
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. BILL CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES TODAY ACROSS THE BOARD AS
WARMER THE COLUMN CONTINUES TO WARM AND DEEP MIXING IS EXPECTED
TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
IMMEDIATE FORECAST CONCERN WAS WHAT TO DO WITH POPS IN THE TRANSITION
PERIOD BETWEEN THE SHORT AND LONG TERM FORECAST SECTIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DECIDED TO USE THE WRF-ARW AS A BASELINE FOR POP PLACEMENT. HAVE A FEELING
THAT CONVECTION WON`T MAKE IT THAT FAR EAST EXCEPT ACROSS EXTREME FAR
WEST KANSAS EXTENDING TO NORTHWEST KANSAS. REASON FOR THIS IS THAT
MUCH OF THE AREA IS IN A WEAKNESS IN STEERING WINDS BETWEEN SYNOPTIC
FLOW TO THE NORTH AND T.S. BILL. HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS MORTON TO
TREGO COUNTIES, AND THAT MIGHT BE A BIT AGGRESSIVE. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH,
THE NORMALLY WET NMM CORE IS DRY FOR THE REGION. WITH MODERATE CAPE
AND WEAK BULK SHEAR, SEVERE WEATHER IS PROBABLY NOT LIKELY, HOWEVER,
THE THERMO PROFILE WILL BE WELL MIXED, SO MARGINALLY SEVERE DOWNDRAFTS
AND SMALL HAIL COULD BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BETTER CHANCES ARE
THAT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST OR WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WITH A FROPA, SOME STORMS ARE POSSIBLE; HOWEVER,
MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER AND KEEPING MUCH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR TEMPERATURES, WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE AS 850-HPA TEMPS CLIMB THROUGH THE LONG TERM DOMAIN. WOULD
NOT RULE OUT MID TO UPPER 90S BY NEXT WEEK, WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH
ECE MOS GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM A DYING CLUSTER OF STORMS IN NORTHWEST
KANSAS SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE HAYS AND GARDEN CITY TERMINALS EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A SWITCH IN THE WINDS TO A
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS SMALL CHANCE FOR MVFR VSBYS
TO DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING AT THE TAF SITES BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS
IS LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MENTIONING IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 87 64 85 65 / 10 10 10 10
GCK 88 62 89 65 / 10 20 10 20
EHA 89 63 92 64 / 10 30 20 20
LBL 88 63 88 64 / 10 10 10 10
HYS 89 64 87 65 / 10 10 10 10
P28 85 66 89 68 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GERARD
SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...GERARD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
141 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND NEAR A OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO REFLECT THE SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY AND ALSO UPDATED WITH LATEST OBS/TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1000 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
FOG HAS BURNED OFF IN MOST SPOTS THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROGRESSING NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES THIS MORNING.
THESE STORMS WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING HOURS. UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
NORTH AND ALSO UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THE NEAR TERM TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CLUSTER
OF STORMS THAT WILL LIKELY BRUSH THROUGH OUR NORTHERN MOST
COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALSO FINE TUNED THE T/TD GRIDS
PER THE LATEST...RESTORED...OBS AND TRENDS. THE FOG WAS LINGERED
FOR AN EXTRA HOUR...AS WELL. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT
TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY...WASHED OUT BOUNDARY
LYING OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH HIGH HUMIDITY AND MILD
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IS
LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTHWEST MOVING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT OF THE OHIO VALLEY...THOUGH DESTINED TO NEVER GET HERE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE SPAWNED OVER THE AREA DURING THE
DAY MONDAY THANKS IN PART TO THAT WEAK SFC BOUNDARY. WHILE THE
EASTERN PART OF THE STATE IS MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING...A
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL GOING STRONG OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION AND ACROSS THE BORDER INTO SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND ILLINOIS. LOCALLY...TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY UNIFORM
IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S ACROSS THE CWA WITH DEWPOINTS A
DEGREE OR SO LOWER IN MOST SPOTS WHILE WINDS ARE LIGHT. PATCHY
FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...IS NOTED AT JKL AND IN SOME OF THE WEB
CAMS...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT
AN ADVISORY OR SPS ATTM. BUILDING CLOUD COVER FROM THE NEARBY
FRONT AND STORMS TO THE WEST SHOULD HELP LIMIT ITS IMPACT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE PATTERN THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT THE SUB
TROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE OHIO RIVER BASICALLY
ITS NORTHERN EDGE. TO THE SOUTHWEST...THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES OF
FORMER TROPICAL STORM BILL ARE SHOWN MOVING FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS
TO THE OZARKS BY 00Z FRIDAY. ALONG THE TOP OF THE RIDGE A TRAIN
OF MINOR ENERGY WAVES WILL RIPPLE PAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THURSDAY
HELPING TO SUPPRESS THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE...WITH SOME
ASSISTANCE FROM BILL/S REMNANT CIRCULATION APPROACHING LATE IN
THE PERIOD. THIS FORECAST WILL BE DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE FEATURES...
THOUGH...SO HAVE FAVORED RADAR TRENDS AND THE LATEST HRRR FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST ALONG WITH THE HIGH RESOLUTION NAM12
FOR THE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY PORTIONS.
THE SAME INGREDIENTS THAT PRODUCED STORMS...A COUPLE OF WHICH WERE
SEVERE...YESTERDAY WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY AND THURSDAY TO FUEL
STORM DEVELOPMENT. THESE COMPONENTS ARE...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
IN THE AIR...PWS NEAR 2 INCHES...AND INSTABILITY WITH CAPES TO
3000 J/KG BY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...THE LAPSE RATES WILL BE A
BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
ACCORDINGLY...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR THE REST. ONE
FLY IN THE OINTMENT...THOUGH...WILL BE THE REMAINS OF THE ONGOING
STORMS TO THE WEST. THE HRRR TRIES TO TAKE THE CORE OF THESE OVER
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...BUT THAT PROGRESS IS IN DOUBT GIVEN RADAR
TRENDS AND THE NAM12 SOLUTION. WHAT DOES HAPPEN WITH THESE STORMS
WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT EFFECT ON OUR INSTABILITY LATER THIS
MORNING DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUN CAN GET IN HERE BEFORE THE
CLOUDS...OR REMAINING CONVECTIVE CELLS...FROM THE WEST MOVE INTO
THE JKL CWA. AT WORST...THIS COULD DELAY THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRONGER STORMS UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE THREAT
WILL CERTAINLY REMAIN. FOR THIS...WILL CONTINUE TO HIT IT IN THE
HWO AS WELL AS ADDING A HEADLINE TO THE WEB/PARTNER E-MAIL. THE
MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINS. THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIURNALLY WANE TONIGHT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AGAIN
ANTICIPATED IN THIS MUGGY ENVIRONMENT. ON THURSDAY...THE
CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS FAVORABLE FOR STORM FORMATION AS
THE FRONT LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WEAKENS A TAD. BOTH TODAY AND THURSDAY HIGHS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE IN THE LOW 90S...BUT CLOUDS AND CONVECTION WILL
LIMIT THE WORST OF THE HEAT...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN PARTS
OF THE CWA TODAY WHERE 85 DEGREES MAY BE A STRETCH.
ONCE AGAIN THE T/TD/WINDS GRIDS WERE STARTED OFF FROM THE
SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE
SUPERBLEND. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE IMPACT THAT THE CONVECTION WILL
HAVE ON THESE ELEMENTS CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL FOR THEIR
SPECIFICS. DID RAISE TEMPS A SMIDGEN ON THURSDAY WITH SLIGHTLY
LESS CONVECTION ANTICIPATED THAN TODAY. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP
CLOSEST TO THE HIGHER MET NUMBERS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM AS THE MAV APPEARS TO BE OVERLY DRY GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL OF THIS PATTERN AND PERHAPS THE COARSER RESOLUTION OF
ITS PARENT MODEL WHEN COMPARED TO THAT OF THE MET/S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
A VERY WET AND ACTIVE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD SEEMS TO BE ON TAP.
THE PERIOD BEGINS ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN OPEN SOUTHERLY FLOW IN
PLACE PUTTING EAST KENTUCKY IN A TROPICAL TYPE AIRMASS. HEADING INTO
FRIDAY...THE REMNANTS OF BILL SETS UP JUST TO THE WEST OVER THE MID
MS RIVER VALLEY POISED TO HEAD EAST UP THE OH VALLEY AND WITH IT...A
SUBSTANTIAL SHOT OF MOISTURE. THIS IS CONFIRMED WITH THE LATEST RUN
OF THE GFS AND EURO AND ALSO WITH THE SUPER BLEND. THE INFLUX OF
MOISTURE AND THE REMNANTS OF BILL...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BECOMING
AN OPEN WAVE...COUPLED WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE OH VALLEY
WILL BE A FOCUS FOR CONTINUED ROUNDS OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. PWATS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 1.75 TO 2.00
INCH RANGE.
BY MONDAY THE PATTERN TAKES ON A MORE DIURNAL DRIVEN MAX AND MIN
TIME FOR CONVECTION. MONDAY AND TUESDAYS ACTIVITY WILL DRIVEN BY A
COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE JET.
THESE WAVES WILL BRING A COUPLE OF WEAK COLD FRONTS THROUGH THE
AREA. HOWEVER...AS WELL...WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING INTO THE AREA...THIS PATTERN DOES FAVOR A
MCS TYPE PATTERN. AT THE SURFACE...THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
WARMER TEMPS WILL KEEP THE AREA IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS
AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S MAKING FOR A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS EACH DAY. CERTAINLY THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD RAISES A
CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND...POSSIBLY COMPLICATED
BY THE MCS PATTERN TO START THE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND NEAR A OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY PRODUCED FROM EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND
EAST. GIVEN THIS AND POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HAVE MENTIONED VCTS AT ALL THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WANE TONIGHT
AND FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT MOST SITES OVERNIGHT. RIGHT NOW
HAVE KEPT SITES MVFR VIS...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT LOWER VIS
ESPECIALLY IN SITES THAT ARE ABLE TO RECEIVE ANY PRECIP. WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL WEST TO SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...DJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
131 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
FOG HAS BURNED OFF IN MOST SPOTS THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROGRESSING NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES THIS MORNING.
THESE STORMS WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING HOURS. UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
NORTH AND ALSO UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THE NEAR TERM TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CLUSTER
OF STORMS THAT WILL LIKELY BRUSH THROUGH OUR NORTHERN MOST
COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALSO FINE TUNED THE T/TD GRIDS
PER THE LATEST...RESTORED...OBS AND TRENDS. THE FOG WAS LINGERED
FOR AN EXTRA HOUR...AS WELL. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT
TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY...WASHED OUT BOUNDARY
LYING OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH HIGH HUMIDITY AND MILD
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IS
LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTHWEST MOVING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT OF THE OHIO VALLEY...THOUGH DESTINED TO NEVER GET HERE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE SPAWNED OVER THE AREA DURING THE
DAY MONDAY THANKS IN PART TO THAT WEAK SFC BOUNDARY. WHILE THE
EASTERN PART OF THE STATE IS MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING...A
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL GOING STRONG OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION AND ACROSS THE BORDER INTO SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND ILLINOIS. LOCALLY...TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY UNIFORM
IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S ACROSS THE CWA WITH DEWPOINTS A
DEGREE OR SO LOWER IN MOST SPOTS WHILE WINDS ARE LIGHT. PATCHY
FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...IS NOTED AT JKL AND IN SOME OF THE WEB
CAMS...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT
AN ADVISORY OR SPS ATTM. BUILDING CLOUD COVER FROM THE NEARBY
FRONT AND STORMS TO THE WEST SHOULD HELP LIMIT ITS IMPACT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE PATTERN THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT THE SUB
TROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE OHIO RIVER BASICALLY
ITS NORTHERN EDGE. TO THE SOUTHWEST...THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES OF
FORMER TROPICAL STORM BILL ARE SHOWN MOVING FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS
TO THE OZARKS BY 00Z FRIDAY. ALONG THE TOP OF THE RIDGE A TRAIN
OF MINOR ENERGY WAVES WILL RIPPLE PAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THURSDAY
HELPING TO SUPPRESS THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE...WITH SOME
ASSISTANCE FROM BILL/S REMNANT CIRCULATION APPROACHING LATE IN
THE PERIOD. THIS FORECAST WILL BE DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE FEATURES...
THOUGH...SO HAVE FAVORED RADAR TRENDS AND THE LATEST HRRR FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST ALONG WITH THE HIGH RESOLUTION NAM12
FOR THE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY PORTIONS.
THE SAME INGREDIENTS THAT PRODUCED STORMS...A COUPLE OF WHICH WERE
SEVERE...YESTERDAY WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY AND THURSDAY TO FUEL
STORM DEVELOPMENT. THESE COMPONENTS ARE...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
IN THE AIR...PWS NEAR 2 INCHES...AND INSTABILITY WITH CAPES TO
3000 J/KG BY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...THE LAPSE RATES WILL BE A
BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
ACCORDINGLY...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR THE REST. ONE
FLY IN THE OINTMENT...THOUGH...WILL BE THE REMAINS OF THE ONGOING
STORMS TO THE WEST. THE HRRR TRIES TO TAKE THE CORE OF THESE OVER
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...BUT THAT PROGRESS IS IN DOUBT GIVEN RADAR
TRENDS AND THE NAM12 SOLUTION. WHAT DOES HAPPEN WITH THESE STORMS
WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT EFFECT ON OUR INSTABILITY LATER THIS
MORNING DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUN CAN GET IN HERE BEFORE THE
CLOUDS...OR REMAINING CONVECTIVE CELLS...FROM THE WEST MOVE INTO
THE JKL CWA. AT WORST...THIS COULD DELAY THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRONGER STORMS UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE THREAT
WILL CERTAINLY REMAIN. FOR THIS...WILL CONTINUE TO HIT IT IN THE
HWO AS WELL AS ADDING A HEADLINE TO THE WEB/PARTNER E-MAIL. THE
MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINS. THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIURNALLY WANE TONIGHT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AGAIN
ANTICIPATED IN THIS MUGGY ENVIRONMENT. ON THURSDAY...THE
CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS FAVORABLE FOR STORM FORMATION AS
THE FRONT LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WEAKENS A TAD. BOTH TODAY AND THURSDAY HIGHS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE IN THE LOW 90S...BUT CLOUDS AND CONVECTION WILL
LIMIT THE WORST OF THE HEAT...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN PARTS
OF THE CWA TODAY WHERE 85 DEGREES MAY BE A STRETCH.
ONCE AGAIN THE T/TD/WINDS GRIDS WERE STARTED OFF FROM THE
SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE
SUPERBLEND. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE IMPACT THAT THE CONVECTION WILL
HAVE ON THESE ELEMENTS CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL FOR THEIR
SPECIFICS. DID RAISE TEMPS A SMIDGEN ON THURSDAY WITH SLIGHTLY
LESS CONVECTION ANTICIPATED THAN TODAY. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP
CLOSEST TO THE HIGHER MET NUMBERS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM AS THE MAV APPEARS TO BE OVERLY DRY GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL OF THIS PATTERN AND PERHAPS THE COARSER RESOLUTION OF
ITS PARENT MODEL WHEN COMPARED TO THAT OF THE MET/S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
A VERY WET AND ACTIVE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD SEEMS TO BE ON TAP.
THE PERIOD BEGINS ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN OPEN SOUTHERLY FLOW IN
PLACE PUTTING EAST KENTUCKY IN A TROPICAL TYPE AIRMASS. HEADING INTO
FRIDAY...THE REMNANTS OF BILL SETS UP JUST TO THE WEST OVER THE MID
MS RIVER VALLEY POISED TO HEAD EAST UP THE OH VALLEY AND WITH IT...A
SUBSTANTIAL SHOT OF MOISTURE. THIS IS CONFIRMED WITH THE LATEST RUN
OF THE GFS AND EURO AND ALSO WITH THE SUPER BLEND. THE INFLUX OF
MOISTURE AND THE REMNANTS OF BILL...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BECOMING
AN OPEN WAVE...COUPLED WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE OH VALLEY
WILL BE A FOCUS FOR CONTINUED ROUNDS OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. PWATS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 1.75 TO 2.00
INCH RANGE.
BY MONDAY THE PATTERN TAKES ON A MORE DIURNAL DRIVEN MAX AND MIN
TIME FOR CONVECTION. MONDAY AND TUESDAYS ACTIVITY WILL DRIVEN BY A
COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE JET.
THESE WAVES WILL BRING A COUPLE OF WEAK COLD FRONTS THROUGH THE
AREA. HOWEVER...AS WELL...WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING INTO THE AREA...THIS PATTERN DOES FAVOR A
MCS TYPE PATTERN. AT THE SURFACE...THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
WARMER TEMPS WILL KEEP THE AREA IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS
AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S MAKING FOR A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS EACH DAY. CERTAINLY THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD RAISES A
CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND...POSSIBLY COMPLICATED
BY THE MCS PATTERN TO START THE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND NEAR A OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY PRODUCED FROM EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND
EAST. GIVEN THIS AND POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HAVE MENTIONED VCTS AT ALL THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WANE TONIGHT
AND FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT MOST SITES OVERNIGHT. RIGHT NOW
HAVE KEPT SITES MVFR VIS...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT LOWER VIS
ESPECIALLY IN SITES THAT ARE ABLE TO RECEIVE ANY PRECIP. WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL WEST TO SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...DJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1000 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
FOG HAS BURNED OFF IN MOST SPOTS THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROGRESSING NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES THIS MORNING.
THESE STORMS WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING HOURS. UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
NORTH AND ALSO UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THE NEAR TERM TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CLUSTER
OF STORMS THAT WILL LIKELY BRUSH THROUGH OUR NORTHERN MOST
COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALSO FINE TUNED THE T/TD GRIDS
PER THE LATEST...RESTORED...OBS AND TRENDS. THE FOG WAS LINGERED
FOR AN EXTRA HOUR...AS WELL. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT
TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY...WASHED OUT BOUNDARY
LYING OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH HIGH HUMIDITY AND MILD
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IS
LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTHWEST MOVING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT OF THE OHIO VALLEY...THOUGH DESTINED TO NEVER GET HERE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE SPAWNED OVER THE AREA DURING THE
DAY MONDAY THANKS IN PART TO THAT WEAK SFC BOUNDARY. WHILE THE
EASTERN PART OF THE STATE IS MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING...A
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL GOING STRONG OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION AND ACROSS THE BORDER INTO SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND ILLINOIS. LOCALLY...TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY UNIFORM
IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S ACROSS THE CWA WITH DEWPOINTS A
DEGREE OR SO LOWER IN MOST SPOTS WHILE WINDS ARE LIGHT. PATCHY
FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...IS NOTED AT JKL AND IN SOME OF THE WEB
CAMS...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT
AN ADVISORY OR SPS ATTM. BUILDING CLOUD COVER FROM THE NEARBY
FRONT AND STORMS TO THE WEST SHOULD HELP LIMIT ITS IMPACT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE PATTERN THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT THE SUB
TROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE OHIO RIVER BASICALLY
ITS NORTHERN EDGE. TO THE SOUTHWEST...THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES OF
FORMER TROPICAL STORM BILL ARE SHOWN MOVING FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS
TO THE OZARKS BY 00Z FRIDAY. ALONG THE TOP OF THE RIDGE A TRAIN
OF MINOR ENERGY WAVES WILL RIPPLE PAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THURSDAY
HELPING TO SUPPRESS THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE...WITH SOME
ASSISTANCE FROM BILL/S REMNANT CIRCULATION APPROACHING LATE IN
THE PERIOD. THIS FORECAST WILL BE DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE FEATURES...
THOUGH...SO HAVE FAVORED RADAR TRENDS AND THE LATEST HRRR FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST ALONG WITH THE HIGH RESOLUTION NAM12
FOR THE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY PORTIONS.
THE SAME INGREDIENTS THAT PRODUCED STORMS...A COUPLE OF WHICH WERE
SEVERE...YESTERDAY WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY AND THURSDAY TO FUEL
STORM DEVELOPMENT. THESE COMPONENTS ARE...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
IN THE AIR...PWS NEAR 2 INCHES...AND INSTABILITY WITH CAPES TO
3000 J/KG BY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...THE LAPSE RATES WILL BE A
BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
ACCORDINGLY...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR THE REST. ONE
FLY IN THE OINTMENT...THOUGH...WILL BE THE REMAINS OF THE ONGOING
STORMS TO THE WEST. THE HRRR TRIES TO TAKE THE CORE OF THESE OVER
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...BUT THAT PROGRESS IS IN DOUBT GIVEN RADAR
TRENDS AND THE NAM12 SOLUTION. WHAT DOES HAPPEN WITH THESE STORMS
WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT EFFECT ON OUR INSTABILITY LATER THIS
MORNING DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUN CAN GET IN HERE BEFORE THE
CLOUDS...OR REMAINING CONVECTIVE CELLS...FROM THE WEST MOVE INTO
THE JKL CWA. AT WORST...THIS COULD DELAY THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRONGER STORMS UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE THREAT
WILL CERTAINLY REMAIN. FOR THIS...WILL CONTINUE TO HIT IT IN THE
HWO AS WELL AS ADDING A HEADLINE TO THE WEB/PARTNER E-MAIL. THE
MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINS. THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIURNALLY WANE TONIGHT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AGAIN
ANTICIPATED IN THIS MUGGY ENVIRONMENT. ON THURSDAY...THE
CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS FAVORABLE FOR STORM FORMATION AS
THE FRONT LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WEAKENS A TAD. BOTH TODAY AND THURSDAY HIGHS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE IN THE LOW 90S...BUT CLOUDS AND CONVECTION WILL
LIMIT THE WORST OF THE HEAT...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN PARTS
OF THE CWA TODAY WHERE 85 DEGREES MAY BE A STRETCH.
ONCE AGAIN THE T/TD/WINDS GRIDS WERE STARTED OFF FROM THE
SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE
SUPERBLEND. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE IMPACT THAT THE CONVECTION WILL
HAVE ON THESE ELEMENTS CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL FOR THEIR
SPECIFICS. DID RAISE TEMPS A SMIDGEN ON THURSDAY WITH SLIGHTLY
LESS CONVECTION ANTICIPATED THAN TODAY. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP
CLOSEST TO THE HIGHER MET NUMBERS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM AS THE MAV APPEARS TO BE OVERLY DRY GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL OF THIS PATTERN AND PERHAPS THE COARSER RESOLUTION OF
ITS PARENT MODEL WHEN COMPARED TO THAT OF THE MET/S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
A VERY WET AND ACTIVE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD SEEMS TO BE ON TAP.
THE PERIOD BEGINS ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN OPEN SOUTHERLY FLOW IN
PLACE PUTTING EAST KENTUCKY IN A TROPICAL TYPE AIRMASS. HEADING INTO
FRIDAY...THE REMNANTS OF BILL SETS UP JUST TO THE WEST OVER THE MID
MS RIVER VALLEY POISED TO HEAD EAST UP THE OH VALLEY AND WITH IT...A
SUBSTANTIAL SHOT OF MOISTURE. THIS IS CONFIRMED WITH THE LATEST RUN
OF THE GFS AND EURO AND ALSO WITH THE SUPER BLEND. THE INFLUX OF
MOISTURE AND THE REMNANTS OF BILL...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BECOMING
AN OPEN WAVE...COUPLED WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE OH VALLEY
WILL BE A FOCUS FOR CONTINUED ROUNDS OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. PWATS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 1.75 TO 2.00
INCH RANGE.
BY MONDAY THE PATTERN TAKES ON A MORE DIURNAL DRIVEN MAX AND MIN
TIME FOR CONVECTION. MONDAY AND TUESDAYS ACTIVITY WILL DRIVEN BY A
COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE JET.
THESE WAVES WILL BRING A COUPLE OF WEAK COLD FRONTS THROUGH THE
AREA. HOWEVER...AS WELL...WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING INTO THE AREA...THIS PATTERN DOES FAVOR A
MCS TYPE PATTERN. AT THE SURFACE...THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
WARMER TEMPS WILL KEEP THE AREA IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS
AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S MAKING FOR A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS EACH DAY. CERTAINLY THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD RAISES A
CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND...POSSIBLY COMPLICATED
BY THE MCS PATTERN TO START THE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID MORNING. HAVE
INCLUDED VCTS FOR THIS IN THE SYM TAF. OTHERWISE...FOG OF VARYING
DENSITY WILL DISSIPATE BY 14Z WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS
DEVELOPING BY NOON FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS FOR
THIS IN ALL THE TAFS...RUNNING IT THROUGH SUNSET. WINDS WILL PICK
UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST THIS MORNING AT NEAR 10 KTS INTO THE
AFTERNOON...THEN DIE OFF AFTER SUNSET. IN ADDITION...DO
ANTICIPATE SOME MVFR FOG AROUND TONIGHT AT MOST OF THE SITES.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
740 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THE NEAR TERM TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CLUSTER
OF STORMS THAT WILL LIKELY BRUSH THROUGH OUR NORTHERN MOST
COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALSO FINE TUNED THE T/TD GRIDS
PER THE LATEST...RESTORED...OBS AND TRENDS. THE FOG WAS LINGERED
FOR AN EXTRA HOUR...AS WELL. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT
TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY...WASHED OUT BOUNDARY
LYING OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH HIGH HUMIDITY AND MILD
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IS
LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTHWEST MOVING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT OF THE OHIO VALLEY...THOUGH DESTINED TO NEVER GET HERE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE SPAWNED OVER THE AREA DURING THE
DAY MONDAY THANKS IN PART TO THAT WEAK SFC BOUNDARY. WHILE THE
EASTERN PART OF THE STATE IS MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING...A
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL GOING STRONG OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION AND ACROSS THE BORDER INTO SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND ILLINOIS. LOCALLY...TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY UNIFORM
IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S ACROSS THE CWA WITH DEWPOINTS A
DEGREE OR SO LOWER IN MOST SPOTS WHILE WINDS ARE LIGHT. PATCHY
FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...IS NOTED AT JKL AND IN SOME OF THE WEB
CAMS...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT
AN ADVISORY OR SPS ATTM. BUILDING CLOUD COVER FROM THE NEARBY
FRONT AND STORMS TO THE WEST SHOULD HELP LIMIT ITS IMPACT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE PATTERN THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT THE SUB
TROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE OHIO RIVER BASICALLY
ITS NORTHERN EDGE. TO THE SOUTHWEST...THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES OF
FORMER TROPICAL STORM BILL ARE SHOWN MOVING FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS
TO THE OZARKS BY 00Z FRIDAY. ALONG THE TOP OF THE RIDGE A TRAIN
OF MINOR ENERGY WAVES WILL RIPPLE PAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THURSDAY
HELPING TO SUPPRESS THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE...WITH SOME
ASSISTANCE FROM BILL/S REMNANT CIRCULATION APPROACHING LATE IN
THE PERIOD. THIS FORECAST WILL BE DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE FEATURES...
THOUGH...SO HAVE FAVORED RADAR TRENDS AND THE LATEST HRRR FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST ALONG WITH THE HIGH RESOLUTION NAM12
FOR THE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY PORTIONS.
THE SAME INGREDIENTS THAT PRODUCED STORMS...A COUPLE OF WHICH WERE
SEVERE...YESTERDAY WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY AND THURSDAY TO FUEL
STORM DEVELOPMENT. THESE COMPONENTS ARE...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
IN THE AIR...PWS NEAR 2 INCHES...AND INSTABILITY WITH CAPES TO
3000 J/KG BY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...THE LAPSE RATES WILL BE A
BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
ACCORDINGLY...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR THE REST. ONE
FLY IN THE OINTMENT...THOUGH...WILL BE THE REMAINS OF THE ONGOING
STORMS TO THE WEST. THE HRRR TRIES TO TAKE THE CORE OF THESE OVER
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...BUT THAT PROGRESS IS IN DOUBT GIVEN RADAR
TRENDS AND THE NAM12 SOLUTION. WHAT DOES HAPPEN WITH THESE STORMS
WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT EFFECT ON OUR INSTABILITY LATER THIS
MORNING DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUN CAN GET IN HERE BEFORE THE
CLOUDS...OR REMAINING CONVECTIVE CELLS...FROM THE WEST MOVE INTO
THE JKL CWA. AT WORST...THIS COULD DELAY THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRONGER STORMS UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE THREAT
WILL CERTAINLY REMAIN. FOR THIS...WILL CONTINUE TO HIT IT IN THE
HWO AS WELL AS ADDING A HEADLINE TO THE WEB/PARTNER E-MAIL. THE
MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINS. THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIURNALLY WANE TONIGHT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AGAIN
ANTICIPATED IN THIS MUGGY ENVIRONMENT. ON THURSDAY...THE
CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS FAVORABLE FOR STORM FORMATION AS
THE FRONT LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WEAKENS A TAD. BOTH TODAY AND THURSDAY HIGHS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE IN THE LOW 90S...BUT CLOUDS AND CONVECTION WILL
LIMIT THE WORST OF THE HEAT...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN PARTS
OF THE CWA TODAY WHERE 85 DEGREES MAY BE A STRETCH.
ONCE AGAIN THE T/TD/WINDS GRIDS WERE STARTED OFF FROM THE
SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE
SUPERBLEND. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE IMPACT THAT THE CONVECTION WILL
HAVE ON THESE ELEMENTS CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL FOR THEIR
SPECIFICS. DID RAISE TEMPS A SMIDGEN ON THURSDAY WITH SLIGHTLY
LESS CONVECTION ANTICIPATED THAN TODAY. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP
CLOSEST TO THE HIGHER MET NUMBERS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM AS THE MAV APPEARS TO BE OVERLY DRY GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL OF THIS PATTERN AND PERHAPS THE COARSER RESOLUTION OF
ITS PARENT MODEL WHEN COMPARED TO THAT OF THE MET/S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
A VERY WET AND ACTIVE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD SEEMS TO BE ON TAP.
THE PERIOD BEGINS ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN OPEN SOUTHERLY FLOW IN
PLACE PUTTING EAST KENTUCKY IN A TROPICAL TYPE AIRMASS. HEADING INTO
FRIDAY...THE REMNANTS OF BILL SETS UP JUST TO THE WEST OVER THE MID
MS RIVER VALLEY POISED TO HEAD EAST UP THE OH VALLEY AND WITH IT...A
SUBSTANTIAL SHOT OF MOISTURE. THIS IS CONFIRMED WITH THE LATEST RUN
OF THE GFS AND EURO AND ALSO WITH THE SUPER BLEND. THE INFLUX OF
MOISTURE AND THE REMNANTS OF BILL...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BECOMING
AN OPEN WAVE...COUPLED WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE OH VALLEY
WILL BE A FOCUS FOR CONTINUED ROUNDS OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. PWATS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 1.75 TO 2.00
INCH RANGE.
BY MONDAY THE PATTERN TAKES ON A MORE DIURNAL DRIVEN MAX AND MIN
TIME FOR CONVECTION. MONDAY AND TUESDAYS ACTIVITY WILL DRIVEN BY A
COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE JET.
THESE WAVES WILL BRING A COUPLE OF WEAK COLD FRONTS THROUGH THE
AREA. HOWEVER...AS WELL...WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING INTO THE AREA...THIS PATTERN DOES FAVOR A
MCS TYPE PATTERN. AT THE SURFACE...THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
WARMER TEMPS WILL KEEP THE AREA IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS
AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S MAKING FOR A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS EACH DAY. CERTAINLY THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD RAISES A
CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND...POSSIBLY COMPLICATED
BY THE MCS PATTERN TO START THE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID MORNING. HAVE
INCLUDED VCTS FOR THIS IN THE SYM TAF. OTHERWISE...FOG OF VARYING
DENSITY WILL DISSIPATE BY 14Z WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS
DEVELOPING BY NOON FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS FOR
THIS IN ALL THE TAFS...RUNNING IT THROUGH SUNSET. WINDS WILL PICK
UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST THIS MORNING AT NEAR 10 KTS INTO THE
AFTERNOON...THEN DIE OFF AFTER SUNSET. IN ADDITION...DO
ANTICIPATE SOME MVFR FOG AROUND TONIGHT AT MOST OF THE SITES.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
355 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY...WASHED OUT BOUNDARY
LYING OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH HIGH HUMIDITY AND MILD
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IS
LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTHWEST MOVING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT OF THE OHIO VALLEY...THOUGH DESTINED TO NEVER GET HERE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE SPAWNED OVER THE AREA DURING THE
DAY MONDAY THANKS IN PART TO THAT WEAK SFC BOUNDARY. WHILE THE
EASTERN PART OF THE STATE IS MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING...A
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL GOING STRONG OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION AND ACROSS THE BORDER INTO SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND ILLINOIS. LOCALLY...TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY UNIFORM
IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S ACROSS THE CWA WITH DEWPOINTS A
DEGREE OR SO LOWER IN MOST SPOTS WHILE WINDS ARE LIGHT. PATCHY
FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...IS NOTED AT JKL AND IN SOME OF THE WEB
CAMS...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT
AN ADVISORY OR SPS ATTM. BUILDING CLOUD COVER FROM THE NEARBY
FRONT AND STORMS TO THE WEST SHOULD HELP LIMIT ITS IMPACT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE PATTERN THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT THE SUB
TROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE OHIO RIVER BASICALLY
ITS NORTHERN EDGE. TO THE SOUTHWEST...THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES OF
FORMER TROPICAL STORM BILL ARE SHOWN MOVING FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS
TO THE OZARKS BY 00Z FRIDAY. ALONG THE TOP OF THE RIDGE A TRAIN
OF MINOR ENERGY WAVES WILL RIPPLE PAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THURSDAY
HELPING TO SUPPRESS THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE...WITH SOME
ASSISTANCE FROM BILL/S REMNANT CIRCULATION APPROACHING LATE IN
THE PERIOD. THIS FORECAST WILL BE DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE FEATURES...
THOUGH...SO HAVE FAVORED RADAR TRENDS AND THE LATEST HRRR FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST ALONG WITH THE HIGH RESOLUTION NAM12
FOR THE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY PORTIONS.
THE SAME INGREDIENTS THAT PRODUCED STORMS...A COUPLE OF WHICH WERE
SEVERE...YESTERDAY WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY AND THURSDAY TO FUEL
STORM DEVELOPMENT. THESE COMPONENTS ARE...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
IN THE AIR...PWS NEAR 2 INCHES...AND INSTABILITY WITH CAPES TO
3000 J/KG BY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...THE LAPSE RATES WILL BE A
BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
ACCORDINGLY...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR THE REST. ONE
FLY IN THE OINTMENT...THOUGH...WILL BE THE REMAINS OF THE ONGOING
STORMS TO THE WEST. THE HRRR TRIES TO TAKE THE CORE OF THESE OVER
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...BUT THAT PROGRESS IS IN DOUBT GIVEN RADAR
TRENDS AND THE NAM12 SOLUTION. WHAT DOES HAPPEN WITH THESE STORMS
WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT EFFECT ON OUR INSTABILITY LATER THIS
MORNING DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUN CAN GET IN HERE BEFORE THE
CLOUDS...OR REMAINING CONVECTIVE CELLS...FROM THE WEST MOVE INTO
THE JKL CWA. AT WORST...THIS COULD DELAY THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRONGER STORMS UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE THREAT
WILL CERTAINLY REMAIN. FOR THIS...WILL CONTINUE TO HIT IT IN THE
HWO AS WELL AS ADDING A HEADLINE TO THE WEB/PARTNER E-MAIL. THE
MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINS. THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIURNALLY WANE TONIGHT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AGAIN
ANTICIPATED IN THIS MUGGY ENVIRONMENT. ON THURSDAY...THE
CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS FAVORABLE FOR STORM FORMATION AS
THE FRONT LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WEAKENS A TAD. BOTH TODAY AND THURSDAY HIGHS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE IN THE LOW 90S...BUT CLOUDS AND CONVECTION WILL
LIMIT THE WORST OF THE HEAT...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN PARTS
OF THE CWA TODAY WHERE 85 DEGREES MAY BE A STRETCH.
ONCE AGAIN THE T/TD/WINDS GRIDS WERE STARTED OFF FROM THE
SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE
SUPERBLEND. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE IMPACT THAT THE CONVECTION WILL
HAVE ON THESE ELEMENTS CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL FOR THEIR
SPECIFICS. DID RAISE TEMPS A SMIDGEN ON THURSDAY WITH SLIGHTLY
LESS CONVECTION ANTICIPATED THAN TODAY. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP
CLOSEST TO THE HIGHER MET NUMBERS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM AS THE MAV APPEARS TO BE OVERLY DRY GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL OF THIS PATTERN AND PERHAPS THE COARSER RESOLUTION OF
ITS PARENT MODEL WHEN COMPARED TO THAT OF THE MET/S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
A VERY WET AND ACTIVE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD SEEMS TO BE ON TAP.
THE PERIOD BEGINS ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN OPEN SOUTHERLY FLOW IN
PLACE PUTTING EAST KENTUCKY IN A TROPICAL TYPE AIRMASS. HEADING INTO
FRIDAY...THE REMNANTS OF BILL SETS UP JUST TO THE WEST OVER THE MID
MS RIVER VALLEY POISED TO HEAD EAST UP THE OH VALLEY AND WITH IT...A
SUBSTANTIAL SHOT OF MOISTURE. THIS IS CONFIRMED WITH THE LATEST RUN
OF THE GFS AND EURO AND ALSO WITH THE SUPER BLEND. THE INFLUX OF
MOISTURE AND THE REMNANTS OF BILL...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BECOMING
AN OPEN WAVE...COUPLED WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE OH VALLEY
WILL BE A FOCUS FOR CONTINUED ROUNDS OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. PWATS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 1.75 TO 2.00
INCH RANGE.
BY MONDAY THE PATTERN TAKES ON A MORE DIURNAL DRIVEN MAX AND MIN
TIME FOR CONVECTION. MONDAY AND TUESDAYS ACTIVITY WILL DRIVEN BY A
COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE JET.
THESE WAVES WILL BRING A COUPLE OF WEAK COLD FRONTS THROUGH THE
AREA. HOWEVER...AS WELL...WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING INTO THE AREA...THIS PATTERN DOES FAVOR A
MCS TYPE PATTERN. AT THE SURFACE...THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
WARMER TEMPS WILL KEEP THE AREA IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS
AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S MAKING FOR A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS EACH DAY. CERTAINLY THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD RAISES A
CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND...POSSIBLY COMPLICATED
BY THE MCS PATTERN TO START THE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD DAWN SO HAVE INCLUDED
THIS IN THE SYM TAF. OTHERWISE...FOG WILL BE A THREAT FOR MUCH OF
EAST KENTUCKY INTO DAWN. HAVE ALLOWED FOR SOME MVFR VIS CONDITIONS
AT MOST SITES VIA A TEMPO GROUP EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT JKL WILL
SEE VARYING AMOUNT OF FOG...FREQUENTLY DENSE AND DOWN TO VLIFR.
LEFT THIS FOG AS PREVAILING...BUT DO ANTICIPATE TIMES OF BETTER
VIS. ALL THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z WITH STORMS AGAIN
DEVELOPING BY NOON FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. HAVE INCLUDED A VCTS FOR
THIS IN ALL THE TAFS...RUNNING IT THROUGH SUNSET. WINDS WILL PICK
UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT NEAR 10 KTS FOR THE
AFTERNOON...THEN DIE OFF AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
225 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DIED OUT OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
STATE...BUT ARE STILL GOING STRONG TO THE WEST. THE HRRR TAKES
THIS AREA...MOVES IT INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND WEAKENS IT.
BASED ON TRENDS AND THE LATEST NAM12 GUIDANCE HAVE SLOWED THIS
MOVEMENT DOWN BUT DO ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN POPS TOWARD DAWN
NORTH OF JKL. ALSO...TWEAKED THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST
SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE...OBS...AND TRENDS. AS FOR FOG...IT REMAINS
VARIABLE THROUGH THE AREA...BUT DID HIT IT HARDEST IN THE VALLEYS
THAT SAW RAIN EARLIER IN THE NIGHT AND YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. THESE
UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1028 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
QUICK UPDATE TO ALIGN TEMPS AND DEW POINTS WITH MOST RECENT OBS.
STILL ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA
TONIGHT...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THAT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 747 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
MOST OF THE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS HAVE WANED...LEAVING
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. AN ADDITIONAL SET OF
STORMS ARE CURRENTLY WEST OF OUR AREA BUT THESE SHOULD ALSO
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BEFORE MOVING INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY.
THE TRICKY PART OF THE FORECAST TONIGHT WILL BE THE FOG POTENTIAL.
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE SMALL IN MANY LOCATIONS...AND WITH MOST
LOCATIONS RECEIVING RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG
TO DEVELOP EARLY ON THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SO HAVE PUT IN AREAS OF FOG INTO THE ZONES THROUGH EARLY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMP GRIDS TO
ALIGN THEM BETTER WITH MOST RECENT OBS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD
AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND TARGET THE CENTER OF OUR
FORECAST AREA TODAY...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A DIFFUSE SURFACE FRONT
AND THE 850 MB JET. THE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AND OUTFLOWS
GENERATED FROM CURRENT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY FORCE ADDITIONAL
STORMS OVER THE UPPER CUMBERLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE
STILL MEAGER LAPSE RATES...A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL PULSE UP AND
COLLAPSE QUICKLY...PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE
WIND GUST WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE AFTERNOON STORMS WILL WANE AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING BUT CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A
STORM ANYWHERE DURING THE NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE FRONT
WILL SHIFT NORTH SOME AND THE MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF STORMS
SHOULD ALSO SHIFT NORTH OVER OUR MORE NORTHERN COUNTIES. SIMILAR
AIR MASS CHARACTERISTICS TOMORROW...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER LAPSE
RATES...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST WITH THE
STORMS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH TEMPS OR HUMIDITY DURING THE PERIOD.
IN FACT...MANY LOCATIONS WILL AGAIN HIT THE LOW 90S TOMORROW WITH
UPPER 80S UP NORTH WHERE MORE CLOUD COVER IS ANTICIPATED.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
WE WILL BE IN A FAVORED AREA FOR CONVECTION AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AT THE EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES ALOFT
AND WITH A TROPICAL AIR MASS IN PLACE. THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL
STORM BILL SHOULD BE TO OUR WEST...WITH MOISTURE POSSIBLY
STREAMING EASTWARD TOWARD KENTUCKY...WHICH COULD ALSO ENHANCE OUR
RAIN POTENTIAL. BILL IS EXPECTED TO DEGRADE TO AN OPEN WAVE ALOFT
ON SATURDAY AS IT PASSES BY. ITS INFLUENCE WILL RESULT IN OUR
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN AREA-WIDE ON SATURDAY. IN ITS WAKE...POPS WILL
DROP OFF ON SUNDAY. ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AN UPPER TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE NE CONUS WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR
WEST...RESULTING IN NW FLOW ALOFT FOR OUR AREA. A MOIST SURFACE
AIR MASS SHOULD PERSIST. THIS SUMMERTIME SCENARIO CAN FAVOR
CONVECTION AND SOMETIMES MCS OCCURRENCE...AND PRECIP WILL
CONTINUED TO BE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. THE ECMWF SHOWS A DYING
COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY...AND A SLIGHTLY
ENHANCED POP WAS USED THEN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD DAWN SO HAVE INCLUDED
THIS IN THE SYM TAF. OTHERWISE...FOG WILL BE A THREAT FOR MUCH OF
EAST KENTUCKY INTO DAWN. HAVE ALLOWED FOR SOME MVFR VIS CONDITIONS
AT MOST SITES VIA A TEMPO GROUP EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT JKL WILL
SEE VARYING AMOUNT OF FOG...FREQUENTLY DENSE AND DOWN TO VLIFR.
LEFT THIS FOG AS PREVAILING...BUT DO ANTICIPATE TIMES OF BETTER
VIS. ALL THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z WITH STORMS AGAIN
DEVELOPING BY NOON FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. HAVE INCLUDED A VCTS FOR
THIS IN ALL THE TAFS...RUNNING IT THROUGH SUNSET. WINDS WILL PICK
UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT NEAR 10 KTS FOR THE
AFTERNOON...THEN DIE OFF AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
919 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
.UPDATE...DUE TO AREAL FLOODING AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH GOING THROUGH TONIGHT. WHILE RAIN HAS DISSIPATED IN
THE EARLY EVENING...LATEST HRRR HINTS AT SOME DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
SE TEXAS LATE TONIGHT AND EVEN MODEST AMOUNTS COULD POSE SOME
PROBLEMS TONIGHT OVER WATCH AREA.
NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS MOMENT.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015/
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOWN BY
RADAR MOSAIC FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA...AND THEN EXTENDING FURTHER NORTHEAST. ACTIVITY
FOCUSED WITHIN MOISTURE PLUME LEFT FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL
NOW OVER EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND ON A NORTHEAST TRACK. FLASH
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS
AND WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA. CONVECTION HAS SLIPPED A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND IS NOW KNOCKING ON
THE DOORS OF HARDIN AND TYLER COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY
MONITOR CONVECTION...AND HOPEFULLY IT WILL TREND TOWARD MODEL
GUIDANCE LIMITING ANY ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS THIS
AREA. NONE-THE-LESS...MODELS HAVE BEEN LESS THAN SCHOLAR REGARDING
THE EASTERN EXTENT OF MASS FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH BILL. HAVE
MAINTAINED RESPECTABLE POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS/WEST CENTRAL
LOUISIANA FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
BILL WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NORTHEAST. AREA WILL HOWEVER REMAIN
UNDER A WEAKNESS ALOFT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND SOUTHWEST
CONUS ANTICYCLONE. WITH A MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINING
IN PLACE AND NO CAPPING...SHOULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
THE NEW WEEK WILL SEE AN EASTWARD EXPANSION OF SOUTHWEST CONUS
RIDGE INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL SET UP THE LIKELIHOOD OF LITTLE IF
ANY RAINS...AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES TICKING UPWARD.
MARINE...A LIGHT AND OCCASIONAL MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW CAN BE
EXPECTED AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH BECOMES REESTABLISHED OVER THE
REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN MINIMAL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 90 75 90 74 / 30 30 30 10
LCH 88 76 89 76 / 30 20 20 10
LFT 88 76 89 75 / 20 20 20 10
BPT 88 76 89 75 / 30 30 30 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR LAZ027-030.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
259>262.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
720 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM
THE SW CONUS INTO ALBERTA/SASK AND A BROAD TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY
INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES RESULTING IN WNW FLOW TOWARD UPPER MI. AT
THE SFC...HIGH PRES FROM MANITOBA INTO THE NRN PLAINS WAS BUILDING
INTO THE AREA WITH NRLY WINDS AND DRY AIR ADVECTION THROUGH LAKE
SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI. VIS LOOP INDICATED THAT THE EXTENSIVE
STRATOCU OVER THE NORTH HAD RAPIDLY DISSIPATED...LEAVING CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE CWA.
TONIGHT...HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. WITH CLEAR
SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND PWATS DROPPING AOB
0.25 INCH...MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL OFF INTO THE 33 TO 36
RANGE OVER INLAND LOCATIONS. SO...PATCHY FROST WAS MENTIONED AND AN
SPS ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE COLD CONDITIONS. WITH HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASING LATE TONIGHT OR TOWARD DAYBREAK...PER MODELS 500-400 MB
RH...TEMPS MAY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVER THE WEST LATE.
FRI...SRLY WINDS DEVELOPING AS THE HIGH SLIPS OFF TO THE SE WILL
BRING A RETURN OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY. INCREASING
300K-310K MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LIFT MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS LATE
INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER UPPER MI WITH DRY WEATHER LINGERING.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
DURING THE LONG TERM...A LOW AMPLITUDE/PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE NRN CONUS/SRN CANADA TO THE N OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE THAT WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE SRN CONUS. HOWEVER...IN GENERAL...
THERE WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR WEAK TROFFING TO BECOME ESTABLISHED
FROM THE UPPER LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND. FOR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...
THIS MEANS FAIRLY FREQUENT OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN...THOUGH...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SAT...MOST WILL ONLY BE ISOLD/SCT COVERAGE OF SHRA.
TEMPS WILL LIKELY END UP CLOSE TO NORMAL OR A LITTLE BLO NORMAL OVER
THE NEXT 7 DAYS. LOOKING OUT FARTHER THRU LATE JUN AND INTO EARLY
JUL...CFSV2 MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THIS PATTERN MAY CONTINUE...RESULTING
IN PCPN AMOUNTS MORE LIKELY BEING NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL AND TEMPS
MORE LIKELY BEING NORMAL TO BLO NORMAL. EXTENDED PERIODS OF
HEAT/UNCOMFORTABLE HUMIDITY AND A LACK OF PCPN APPEAR UNLIKELY THRU
EARLY JUL.
OVER THE WEEKEND...A COMPLEX SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL STREAK ACROSS
THE NRN CONUS/SRN CANADA. MODELS REALLY DON`T SHOW ANY OF THE WAVES
STANDING OUT WHICH MAKES FOR A MORE CHALLENGING FCST WITH REGARD TO
PCPN...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE RANGE OF MODEL PCPN FCSTS IN RECENT
DAYS. THAT SAID...TODAYS 12Z MODEL RUNS AND THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS OF
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS HAVE CONSISTENTLY POINTED TOWARD SAT FOR THE
BEST POTENTIAL OF PCPN/COLD FRONT ARRIVAL. SO...FCST WILL CONTINUE
TO REFLECT HIGHEST POPS (LIKELY) ON SAT. PRIOR TO THAT...WITH LOW-
LEVEL JET/850MB THETA-E AXIS TRANSLATING E TOWARD UPPER MI FRI NIGHT
IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING WAVES...CHC POPS FOR SHRA/TSTM ARE
WARRANTED FOR THE W OVERNIGHT. PER RECENT MODEL TRENDS...SLOWED
ONSET OF PCPN CHANCES AND LIMITED MENTION TO JUST WRN UPPER MI.
DAYTIME HEATING AND ARRIVAL OF COLD FRONT SAT AFTN/EVENING WILL
BRING THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN. WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-
50KT...ORGANIZED STORMS AND SVR RISK WILL BE PRESENT IF SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS...BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE THE BIG UNKNOWN UNTIL
SAT MOVES INTO THE SHORT TERM. WITH THE 12Z MODEL RUNS...THE NAM
SHOWS ALMOST NO INSTABILITY SAT/SAT EVENING WHILE THE GFS SHOWS
MLCAPE INCREASING INTO THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER
ROUGHLY THE INTERIOR W HALF OF UPPER MI. SO AT THIS POINT...THE
CURRENT DAY3 SPC OUTLOOK APPEARS ON TRACK WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR
IN CNTRL/SRN WI WITH MRGL RISK RUNNING NEAR THE WI/MI BORDER AND
THRU MENOMINEE COUNTY. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.5 INCHES...
HVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS.
HEADING INTO SUN...THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER ANY TRAILING
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT...
PERHAPS GENERATING SOME LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE SHOWERS WITH DAYTIME
HEATING UNDER LIGHT WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES
MOVING INTO THE UPPER LAKES. WILL RETAIN FLAVOR OF INHERITED FCST
WITH NOTHING HIGHER THAN SCHC POPS...MAINLY IN THE INTERIOR CNTRL
AND E.
THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW/ZONAL FLOW REGIME NEXT WEEK IS PROBLEMATIC WITH
REGARD TO TIMING/STRENGTH/TRACK OF SHORTWAVES...TYPICAL FOR THIS
TYPE OF PATTERN IN THE WARM SEASON. THIS IS CERTAINLY EVIDENT WHEN
LOOKING AT THE RATHER SIGNIFICANT VARIABILITY OF FEATURES IN MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. AT THIS POINT...THERE ARE NO
INDICATIONS FOR A WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT PCPN EVENT IN THE MON THRU
THU TIME FRAME. WHEN PCPN DOES OCCUR IN UPPER MI...IT WILL LIKELY BE
SCT. FOR NOW...PLAN TO USE A SIMPLE CONSENSUS OF CURRENT AND RECENT
MODEL RUNS TO CONSTRUCT FCST. RESULT IS SCHC TO LOW CHC POPS ON MOST
DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 720 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD FOR ALL
SITES UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. EACH ONE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS.
EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT/FRI MORNING AS HIGH PRES PASSES
OVER THE AREA. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES...S WINDS WILL INCREASE FRI AFTN THROUGH SAT MORNING.
WINDS MAY GUST TO 15-25KT FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING OVER CNTRL AND ERN
LAKE SUPERIOR. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SAT AFTN.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP OVER THE LAKE. SINCE THE HIGH PRES
FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL BE WEAK...WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...UNDER 20KT FOR LATE SAT THRU SUN. THE GRADUAL
ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH WILL DISSIPATE ANY
LINGERING FOG ON SUN. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL LINGER INTO TUE UNDER A
WEAK PRES GRADIENT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
433 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN
CONUS/SRN CANADA. UPSTREAM...ONE SHORTWAVE IS EVIDENT OVER NRN MN
WHILE A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROF IS SWINGING SE THRU
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. WAVE OVER NRN MN HAS BEEN AIDING A PERSISTENT
AREA OF SHRA THAT HAS MOVED FROM NW WI EARLY THIS MORNING INTO WRN
UPPER MI THIS AFTN. THE CLOUD COVER OVER WRN UPPER MI HAS KEPT
INSTABILITY FROM DEVELOPING...SO THERE HAS BEEN NO THUNDER YET. VIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER TO THE S AND SW...
AND LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES MLCAPES HAVE INCREASED TO A
FEW HUNDRED J/KG INTO WCNTRL WI WITH THE 100J/KG ISOPLETH NOW NEAR
THE WI/MI BORDER. THAT INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH A WEAK SFC LOW PRES
OVER SRN MN AND TROF EXTENDING NE TOWARD KIWD HAS BECOME THE FOCUS
FOR DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HRS. WELL OFF TO
THE NW...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN SHORTWAVE TROF
EXTENDS FROM HUDSON BAY TO SE SASKATCHEWAN. SFC OBS/CANADIAN RADARS
SHOW SOME -SHRA/SPRINKLES WITHIN THE BAND OF CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING
FRONT. MORE RECENTLY...CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO FIRE ALONG THE
FRONT.
FIRST WAVE OVER NRN MN WILL SHIFT E ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES THIS
EVENING. MODELS HINT THAT ANOTHER SUBTLE WAVE WILL FOLLOW LATE
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE SWINGING SE
THRU NRN ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT THRU EARLY THU AFTN. HAVE LARGELY
UTILIZED RADAR TRENDS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HRS TO PUSH ONGOING SHRA
ASSOCIATED WITH FIRST SHORTWAVE ENE INTO NCNTRL UPPER MI BEFORE
DIMINISHING. NAM AND THE HIGH RES NAM WINDOW HAVE A PRETTY GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS PCPN...SO NAM OUTPUT WAS INCORPORATED AS WELL.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE CONVECTION DEVELOPING TO THE SW NEAR SRN
MN WEAK SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROF THAT EXTENDS TOWARD KIWD. SINCE
THIS CONVECTION IS LARGELY DRIVEN BY DAYTIME INSTABILITY...THIS PCPN
SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH AS IT LIFTS TOWARD THE FCST AREA TONIGHT.
PROBABLY WON`T COMPLETELY DISSIPATE GIVEN SOME CONTINUED FORCING
THRU THE NIGHT. SO...FCST WILL SHOW SCT/NMRS SHRA INTO WRN UPPER MI
DIMINISHING TO SCT WITH TIME EASTWARD. SINCE CLOUD COVER WILL
DOMINATE HEADING TO SUNSET...INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED
HERE...BUT IT STILL WARRANTS A MENTION OF THUNDER WITH BEST CHC FROM
KIWD TOWARD KIMT.
POTENTIAL FOR SCT SHOWERS/PERHAPS A TSTM WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ERN
FCST AREA THU MORNING ALONG JUST AHEAD OF THE FAIRLY STRONG COLD
FRONT PUSHING THRU THE AREA. AS IS THE CASE TODAY IN CANADA...THERE
MAY ALSO BE ISOLD -SHRA FOR A SHORT TIME FOLLOWING FROPA AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THU
AFTN WILL BRING DRIER AIR/CLEARING SKIES. IT WILL BE CHILLY ALONG
LAKE SUPERIOR THU AFTN WITH GRADIENT WIND OFF THE LAKE. LAKESIDE
LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF LONG FETCHES ACROSS THE LAKE WILL LIKELY SEE
AFTN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S/LWR 50S. AT THE HIGH END...MAX TEMPS
OVER FAR SCNTRL UPPER MI SHOULD REACH THE MID 70S. IT WILL ALSO BE A
BREEZY DAY BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E...DUE TO DECENT
PRES RISES/CAA AND 20-30KT WINDS AT 925MB.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WEAK SYSTEMS TO PASS
ACROSS THE AREA EVERY FEW DAYS. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST FOR THE LONG
TERM WILL GENERALLY HAVE AT LEAST SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EACH
DAY...NONE OF THE DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY SO MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY.
AFTER THE WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES BY ON THURSDAY...CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA...ACCOMPAINED BY VERY DRY
AIR WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AT 0.25 INCH THU NIGHT. THIS DRY
AIR COMBINED WITH DECOUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPS TO DROP WELL INTO THE 30S ACROSS MANY INTERIOR LOCATIONS WITH
SOME PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT FROST ADVISORIES
WILL BE NEEDED THU NIGHT BUT WILL LEAVE THIS DECISION TO FUTURE
FORECASTS. HOWEVER...PEOPLE IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR MAY NEED TO PREPARE TO COVER PLANTS WHICH ARE
SUCCEPTIABLE TO THE COLD THURSDAY NIGHT.
SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT DAY ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL. SOME WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY WHICH
COMBINED WITH THE SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH LOCATIONS
CLOSE TO THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE COOLER.
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. LATEST NWP SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE SLIGHTLY
SLOWER...WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...WILL
ELIMINATE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR THE FAR WEST FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THE BEST UPPER
FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL GENERALY REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. AS
SUCH...ANY PRECIPITAITON WILL LIKELY BE TIED TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THERE SEEMS LIKE AT LEAST THE
POSSIBLITY FOR SOME SUNSHINE ALLOWING FOR SOME POCKETS OF
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. IN FACT...THE NAM IS QUITE AGRESSIVE IN
SHOWING 1000+ J/KG MLCAPE VALUES SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST
HALF OF THE UPPER PENINSULA. IN FACT...EVEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
SUGGEST SOME MODEST INSTABILITY OF 500-1000 J/KG. WITH 50 KT MID-
LEVEL FLOW AND SOME DRYING ALOFT...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STRONGER
STORMS IF/WHERE POCKETS OF INSTABILITY DEVELOP. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE ONLY AROUND 6.1 C/KM.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON SATURDAY...WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE WEATHER TO BECOME QUIET AGAIN FOR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...WITH THE UPPER JET OVERHEAD AND
ANOTHER SUBTLE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE W-NW
FLOW...CANNOT RULE OUT A PASSING SHOWER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT.
WITH THE ZONAL W-NW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE EARLY
NEXT WEEK...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL. THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT A BAROCLINC ZONE WILL DEVELOP JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTN INTO MONDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
RAIN CHANCES ESPECAILLY CLOSER TO THE WI/MI BORDER AS IT CREEPS
NORTHWARD. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THIS BOUNDARY WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTH
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THOSE
DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
MOISTURE FROM AREA OF -SHRA THAT HAVE BEEN MOVING ACROSS WRN UPPER
MI SHOULD RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT KIWD THIS AFTN.
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME BRIEF IFR COULD OCCUR. WHILE KCMX
SHOULD BE VFR...SOME PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTN. AT KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTN.
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES TONIGHT. MORE SHRA MAY SPREAD ENE INTO THE
AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN COVERAGE/LOCATION. IN ADDITION...IF
CLOUDS BREAK TONIGHT...FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE AT KCMX/KIWD WITH IFR
OR EVEN LIFR POSSIBLE. COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THRU THE AREA THU
MORNING...BRINGING A SHIFT TO NW TO N WINDS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT
KCMX AND ESPECIALLY AT KSAW. MAY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS PERHAPS
IFR AROUND/JUST AFTER FROPA.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 433 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. EACH ONE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS.
AFTER LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT/THU MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY
GUST TO 20-25KT FOR A TIME OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR
THU...ESPECIALLY AT HIGH OBS PLATFORMS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THU
NIGHT/FRI MORNING AS HIGH PRES PASSES OVER THE AREA. AS THE HIGH
DEPARTS AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES...SE TO S WINDS WILL RAMP
UP FRI AFTN THRU SAT MORNING. WINDS MAY GUST TO 15-25KT FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING OVER CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE HIGHEST OBS
PLATFORMS WILL PROBABLY SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT. THE COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA SAT AFTN. SINCE THE HIGH PRES FOLLOWING THE
FRONT WILL BE WEAK...WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...UNDER 20KT FOR LATE SAT THRU SUN. THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL
LINGER INTO MON UNDER A WEAK PRES GRADIENT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1145 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2015
.UPDATE:
Issued at 836 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2015
Went ahead and added Boone and Moniteau to the flash flood watch
as parts of these counties have received between 0.5 and 1 inch of
rainfall so far this evening. Theses two counties should see 2-4+
inches of rainfall over the next few days making flash flooding a
real possibility. Otherwise, going forecast looks on track through
tonight as showers and thunderstorms should continue. The latest
runs of the HRRR continues to show precipitation regenerating over
the central and southern part of the CWA through the night, albeit
with weakening reflectivity. The RAP continues to show strong low
level moisture convergence developing on the nose of a 30kt low
level jet over the CWA.
Britt
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2015
The warm and moisture rich air mass poised along and south of the front
has responded to diurnal heating with SBCAPES of 2000-3000 J/KG throughout
the warm sector, supporting the development of scattered to numerous
showers and thundrstorms. The 12z KSGF raob shows the moisture continuing
to deepen and increase with PW now at 2.01 inches with a tall skinny
CAPE profile, characteristics favorable for very efficient rainfall
production and high rainfall rates which has been observed with
some of the current storms. The models show the boundary lifting
northward tonight but I`m not all convinced of that solution given
the high pressure to our north across the upper MS Valley. Regardless,
several weak disturbances will track within the southwest flow
aloft across the region and that combined with a broad region of
lift and moisture convergence associated with the anticyclonically
curved and veering southwesterly LLJ will continue to support
waves of showers and thunderstorms tonight across mainly the
southern half of the CWA.
Glass
.LONG TERM: (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2015
Continued waves of showers and thunderstorms across the southern
half of the CWA and the remnants of TS Bill are expected through
the end of the week with potential for serious flooding, both flash
flooding on small creeks and streams and potential for major flood
levels of some of the larger rivers.
The overall situation has changed little leading to increasing
confidence. Still unknown will be the exact path of the remnant
tropical low. From Wednesday into Thursday a parade of disturbances
will track E/NE across the southern half of the CWA within the
southwest flow aloft on the periphery of the upper high in the
southeastern U.S.. At the same time the south-southwesterly LLJ
will modulate periodically veering and strengthening, focusing a
broad region of lift across the southern half of the CWA. The
combo of the these features will result in continued waves of
showers and thunderstorms with the high moisture content supporting
high rainfall rates and heavy rainfall totals. The models are also
suggestive of an arcing convergent zone across southern MO
emanating from the remnant low in the Thursday night-Friday time
frame which could further enhance the rainfall potential. The
current NHC official forecast has the low moving across south-
central and southeast MO into southern IL Friday into Friday
evening which appears to be in the center of the guidance suite.
It appears by Saturday morning the remnant low will have passed to
our east with drier weather expected until another cold front
enters the area late Saturday night into Sunday. Still thinking we
will see a swath of rainfall averaging 5-7 inches over the next 5
days centered near a Rolla-Waterloo-Salem axis, with the highest
rainfall period centered in the Thursday night-Friday time frame.
Local rainfall totals could be quite a bit higher. Have expanded
the Flash Flood Watch until 7 pm Friday evening as a result of
this anticipated scenario.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2015
First batch of rain has mainly settled south of the terminals
across southern Missouri and Illinois. A renewed threat of
convection and heavy rainfall will likely develop late tonight or
early Wednesday morning and affect the St. Louis Metro terminals.
Light wind will become southwest on Wednesday.
Specifics for KSTL:
Light rain should taper off in the next few hours, but
thunderstorms should redevelop around daybreak and continue
tomorrow morning and perhaps into the afternoon. Light wind will
become southwest on Wednesday.
CVKING
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday evening FOR Boone MO-Callaway
MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-
Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Moniteau MO-Montgomery
MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-St. Charles MO-St. Francois MO-St.
Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Warren MO-
Washington MO.
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday evening FOR Bond IL-Calhoun IL-
Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-
Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-Randolph IL-
St. Clair IL-Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
810 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2015
.UPDATE...
CONVECTION NEAR BIG TIMBER IS INTENSIFYING JUST BEFORE 8 PM...BUT
IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF IT WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
DOWNSTREAM WHERE THE AIR MASS IS AND HAS BEEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A RATHER STRONG CAP. WE ARE NONETHELESS MAINTAINING A MENTION
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY...
WHICH WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN ITSELF IN SOME MANNER INTO SOUTHEASTERN
MT OVERNIGHT GIVEN A NOCTURNAL 40-50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. ALL WE DID
FOR THE EVENING FORECAST UPDATE WAS ADJUST BOTH POPS AND HOURLY
TEMPERATURES BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. SCHULTZ
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...
CURRENT FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK ON TRACK WITH SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS A GOOD POSSIBILITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING HOURS AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OUT TOWARD THE
DAKOTA BORDERS. WEAK RIDGING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA WILL
FLATTEN WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS AS A SHORTWAVE OVER IDAHO MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. AN EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW COMBINED WITH LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE FAR EAST HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S SO FAR
TODAY. SATELLITE IS SHOWING AREAS OF SUN ACROSS OUR CENTRAL ZONES
WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. CURRENTLY
BEST CAPES ARE WHERE THERE HAS BEEN SUN. EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS
AND CLOUDS ARE KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE CAPPED AND SOUNDINGS CONCUR
WITH THIS. HOWEVER...AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND MOVES OVER
OUR AREA THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO BREAK BY LATE AFTERNOON.
MAJORITY OF THE ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW STORMS FIRING WEST OF
BILLINGS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND MOVING EAST INTO THE BILLINGS AREA
BY 7 OR 8 PM. HOWEVER...SOME MODELS TAKE THE STORMS JUST NORTH AND
SOUTH OF BILLINGS SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON EXACT LOCATIONS OF
STORM DEVELOPMENT. ALL PARAMETERS POINT TO THE POSSIBILITY OF ANY
STORM CONTAINING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. MODELS THEN SHOW
INDIVIDUAL STORMS FORMING MORE OF A COMPLEX OF STORMS JUST EAST OF
BILLINGS BY MID EVENING. LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN IS NOW SHOWING A
COUPLE SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN
ROSEBUD...POWDER RIVER AND CARTER COUNTIES. ALL THE MODELS AGREE
ON MERGING THE STORMS INTO AN MCS LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY FOR OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. WE REMAIN
CONCERNED WITH THE CURRENT CAP BUT WE STILL BELIEVE IT WILL BREAK
IN PLACES.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE ACTUALLY SHOWS FRIDAY TO HAVE BETTER
CHANCES FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM EVENT THAN TODAY.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST AS TONIGHTS STORMS MAY PLACE A
ROLE IN HOW THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REACT FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
HIGHLIGHTING AREAS FROM BILLINGS EASTWARD WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
A DAMAGING WIND EVENT.
THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING TO BE LESS ACTIVE AS A MORE STABLE AIRMASS
WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. HOOLEY
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...
A FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WHILE THE ENSEMBLES WERE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
OVER THE UPCOMING PATTERN...THERE WERE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
DETAILS OF THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF.
SUN AND SUN NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE AREA AS RIDGING
MOVES OVER THE AREA. SOME ENERGY AND MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH THE
FLOW MON AND MON NIGHT BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. MODELS DISAGREED ON THE PROGRESSION
OF A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TUE AND TUE NIGHT SO LEFT INHERITED POPS
ACROSS THE AREA ALONE. DIFFERENCES CONTINUED THROUGH WED NIGHT
DUE TO THE PACIFIC WAVE...SO AGAIN MADE NO CHANGES. THE GFS SHOWED
HIGH CAPES OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA TUE
AFTERNOON THROUGH WED...AND BULK SHEAR WAS STRONG AS WELL. THE GFS
WAS STRONGER WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAN THE ECMWF...SO IF THE GFS
VERIFIES...THERE WILL BE POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TUE
AFTERNOON THROUGH WED. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THU. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL REACH INTO THE 80S WHICH IS A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. ARTHUR
&&
.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN
MT BY ABOUT 06 UTC...AND THEN EXIT SOUTHEASTERN MT BY 12 UTC. MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH STRONG WINDS...HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST CELLS. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCHULTZ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 061/084 056/081 056/080 055/084 058/083 059/082 059/085
43/T 22/T 21/B 12/T 22/T 33/T 32/T
LVM 054/083 047/079 048/081 050/083 051/083 051/081 050/085
34/T 22/T 21/B 22/T 23/T 33/T 32/T
HDN 060/087 056/082 055/081 056/086 057/085 058/084 059/086
43/T 42/T 21/B 11/B 12/T 33/T 32/T
MLS 061/086 057/081 055/080 055/081 058/082 060/081 057/082
63/T 41/B 22/W 12/T 22/T 33/T 32/T
4BQ 061/086 056/080 056/081 056/083 059/082 059/081 057/082
63/T 61/B 22/W 22/T 22/T 33/T 32/T
BHK 060/084 055/080 053/078 053/077 056/078 058/078 054/078
63/T 61/U 22/T 22/T 22/T 44/T 32/T
SHR 056/084 052/077 052/078 053/084 055/083 055/080 054/082
23/T 52/T 21/B 11/B 12/T 32/T 22/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
339 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
AT 20Z BROAD ZONAL FLOW WAS ESTABLISHED OVER MOST OF THE NORTHERN
CONUS WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED DIFFUSE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. MAIN JET STREAK WAS POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF
THE US/CANADIAN BORDER ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER STATES. A LEE SIDE
SURFACE LOW WAS NOTED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING...WITH A STALLED
FRONT EVIDENT ON SFC OBS AND SATELLITE STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST
COLORADO INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS...THEN NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA. LATEST OBS INDICATE THE FRONT IS BEGINNING TO CREEP
BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL SERVE A FOCAL POINT FOR
POTENTIAL CONVECTION OVER THE CWA TONIGHT. NORTH OF THE FRONT A
RELATIVELY HUMID AIRMASS WAS IN PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
JUST BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING. THE HRRR HAS ROUTINELY SHOWN SPORADIC CONVECTIVE
INITIATION WHERE IT CAN RESOLVE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DRAPED
OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS RATHER WEAK AT
THIS TIME SO AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE SPARSE AT BEST IF ANY
CONVECTION CAN FIRE. BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE LATE THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN
HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN WYOMING/MONTANA LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...THEN DROP SOUTHEAST AS AN ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF
STORMS ALONG THE CONVERGENT NOSE OF A STRENGTHENING LLJ.
EXPECTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT TO RESIDE
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT
SLOWLY MOVES NORTH. THE POTENTIAL WILL BE THERE FOR A FEW OF THE
STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS TONIGHT CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. LATEST RAP13 AND NAM12 SHOW 800MB
COMPUTED LI/S OF -8C TO -10C...ALONG WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND 40-50 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. STORMS WILL PUSH SOUTH
AND EAST AS THE LLJ VEERS EAST OVERNIGHT. SOME MODELS LINGER
CONVECTION IN THE AREA THROUGH 15Z THURSDAY...BUT THIS MAY BE A
LITTLE SLOW. LOWERED POPS TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LATE THURSDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH A LULL EXPECTED IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
OVER THE CWA AS THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING
IN A HUMID AIRMASS WILL PROMOTE STRONG DESTABILIZATION AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER
AT THIS TIME AREAL COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE ISOLATED WITH WEAK UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHT RISES AND THE LACK OF A WELL DEFINED FOCAL POINT FOR
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. MODELS SHOW THE BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR
SEVERE STORMS NORTH AND WEST OF CWA UNDERNEATH FASTER WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND CLOSER TO A SFC LOW IN NORTHERN WYOMING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT AS
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE
PLENTIFUL WITH PWATS ABOVE 1.25 INCHES WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING
POCKETS ABOVE 1.50 INCHES. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IS LIMITED.
BY FRIDAY THE WARM FRONT WILL NORTH INTO S DAKOTA WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDING OVER THE CWA. RIDGE RIDING SHORT WAVE WILL
FAVOR STORMS IN THE DAKOTAS WHICH MAY CLIP NORTHERN NEB...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH AT THIS TIME. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE CLIMBING. MORE SUMMER LIKE TEMPS EXPECTED WITH
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ANTICIPATED. ALSO WILL BE A MUGGY DAY AS
DEW POINTS LIKELY TO BE IN THE 60S.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA. CAP IS FAIRLY STRONG AND BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE NEB/S DAKOTA BORDER.
BY SAT NIGHT THE FRONT STALLS TO THE SOUTH OVER KS WHILE A SHORT
WAVE MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THE CAP AS THE GFS IS STRONGER AND LIMITS PRECIP
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHILE THE ECMWF IS COOLER AND STORMS
SPREAD FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST.
AFTER A COOL DOWN FOR THE WEEKEND. THE STALLED FRONT LIFTS BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE QUICKLY REBUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA AND TEMPS CLIMB BACK TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
TO MID 90S. RIDGE RIDING WAVES LOOK TO KEEP MAJORITY OF THE
ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE CWA...HOWEVER CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRAY
STORM OR TWO DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVING ONTO
THE HIGH PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE IS THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TONIGHT. HAVE
INCLUDED PROB30 GROUP FOR TS ACTIVITY AT BOTH KLBF AND KVTN TO
HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL. AT THIS POINT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHER ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA WHERE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
BEGUN TO CONSISTENTLY SHOW AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TRACKING SOUTHEAST LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1222 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
SAT IMAGERY SHOWS DECREASING TREND IN CLOUD COVER IS FASTER THAN
EXPECTED. SO THE SKY FCST WAS UPDATED THRU MIDDAY TO REFLECT THIS.
SHOULD BE M/SUNNY THIS AM.
EQUIPMENT: YOU MAY BE AWARE THAT OBS WERE MISSING FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. THIS WAS DUE TO FAA MAINTENANCE. OBS RETURNED AS OF 10Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
ALOFT: THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN OVER THE NRN USA
THRU DAWN TOMORROW...WITH A VERY LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE NRN
ROCKIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN WNW FLOW OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS.
SUBTROPICAL HIGHS WILL CONT OVER THE SW AND SE USA...WITH THE
REMNANTS OF BILL LIFTING N INTO OK.
SURFACE: THE POLAR FRONT WAS QUASI-STATIONARY ON THE SRN FRINGE
OF THE WESTERLIES AND EXTENDED FROM WY-NEB E INTO THE OH VALLEY.
THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY THRU TONIGHT...AND WILL BE
MODULATED/MODIFIED BY TSTM ACTIVITY.
NOW: THE REMNANTS OF A DECAYING MCS ARE MOVING THRU AT THIS TIME.
RAIN-COOLED OUTFLOW HAS OVERTAKEN THE ENTIRE FCST AREA. WE DID SEE
MULTIPLE GUSTS UP TO 43 MPH ACROSS FURNAS/HARLAN/FRANKLIN COUNTIES
12AM-2AM WHEN IT WAS MORE POTENT.
TODAY: DECREASING CLOUDS THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW
REGARDING TSTM REDEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO A LACK OF
SYNOPTIC FORCING.
THE 00Z 4KM WRF-NMM HAS AN EXCELLENT HANDLE ON WHAT IS GOING ON
NOW...IT`S JUST TOO SLOW BY 4 HRS. IT SUGGESTS THE BEST
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE S AND E OF THE FCST AREA...PROBABLY ALONG THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GENERATED BY THIS MORNING`S MCS. DEVELOPMENTS IN
THE RAIN- COOLED AIR OVER THE FCST AREA LOOK VERY
ISOLATED/MINIMAL...AND IF THERE IS NOT ENOUGH TSTM ACTIVITY TO
FORM A COMMON COLD POOL...WHAT LITTLE ACTIVITY FIRES SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. THE 06Z HRRR HAS A SIMILAR IDEA AT 21Z.
ENOUGH CLEARING TODAY SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY...
WITH MLCAPE 2000-2500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR 30-40 KTS...HIGHEST
OVER S-CNTRL NEB. LOW-LVL VEERING RESULTS IN 0-3 KM SRH OF 150
J/KG. THIS WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL CONVECTIVE MODE. SPC
HAS MOST OF THE FCST AREA OUTLOOKED IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR.
TONIGHT: IT ALL HINGES ON WHAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON. IF ONLY A
FEW ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE FCST AREA...THEY WILL
DIMINISH AND END MID-LATE EVE. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH DEVELOPMENTS
TO THE W. THE SIGNAL IS NOT GREAT...BUT CELL MERGERS COULD RESULT
IN AN MCS THAT COULD PROPAGATE INTO NEB. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW
GIVEN THE LACK OF MODEL QPF CLUSTERING AND LOW SREF QPF
PROBABILITIES.
GIVEN LOW FCST CONFIDENCE...POPS ARE NO HIGHER THAN 20% TODAY-
TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SUBTLE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING WILL BE NOTED
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE TO START THE LONG- TERM
FORECAST PERIOD AT 12Z THURSDAY...AND ALTHOUGH THIS RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST TO FINISH THE WEEK...THERE ARE ALSO
INDICATIONS OF ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS
DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SUBTLE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATION WILL
CLEAR THE AREA THURSDAY AND AS A RESULT...~20% POPS CONTINUE IN
THE FORECAST FOR THE MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
ALTHOUGH THIS PERTURBATION IS EXPECTED TO HAVE CLEARED OUR AREA BY
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THERE ALSO REMAIN INDICATIONS OF HIGH
PLAINS CONVECTION PERHAPS SUSTAINING ITSELF LONG ENOUGH TO IMPACT
FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY EVENING AND AS A
RESULT...~20% POPS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR FAR WEST 00-06Z FRIDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...THE FIRST UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA...THUS
ELIMINATING ANY APPRECIABLE OMEGA. THIS...AND THE PRESENCE OF A
HEALTHY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC CAPPING INVERSION EACH
AFTERNOON...RESULTS IN A POP-FREE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MORE INTO THE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY TIME PERIOD...ANOTHER ROUND OF MULTIPLE UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATIONS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FIRST
RIDGE COULD BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION AND AS A
RESULT...WENT AHEAD WITH 20-30% POPS ACROSS VARIOUS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST
NEXT TUESDAY AS THE SECOND UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA.
AS WAS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...RESPECTABLE BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE
...ALONG WITH VARYING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PERTURBATIONS...WILL PROMOTE VARYING
LEVELS OF POTENTIAL ENERGY FROM DAY TO DAY DURING THE LONG-TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING...ENERGY LEVELS
GENERALLY RANGING FROM 1000-2000J/KG ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED. GIVEN
THIS...WILL CONTINUE MENTIONING THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE HWO FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
EVENING. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AIR MASS EARLY
NEXT WEEK SUGGESTS STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER COULD RESULT SHOULD
CONVECTION DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL...BUT AT THIS TIME IT
IS TOO EARLY TO INTRODUCE ANY MENTION OF SEVERE WEATHER THAT FAR
INTO THE FUTURE.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS WILL PROMOTE WARM
WEATHER DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 80S AND 90S AND LOWS IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S. AT
THIS TIME THE WARMEST DAY APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
LIKELY CLIMBING INTO THE 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWA AND
PERHAPS NEARING THE CENTURY MARK ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
THESE TEMPERATURE READINGS...IF REALIZED...WOULD HELP PROMOTE HEAT
INDEX READINGS OF 100-102 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. NOT YET
READY TO INTRODUCE HEAT WORDING IN THE HWO FOR THIS WEEKEND...BUT
THIS MAY BE SOMETHING TO CONSIDER IN THE COMING DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
A FEW CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE CUMULUS AND ANY SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN
IN THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
THEY COULD MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE TERMINALS...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
IT.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
642 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
SAT IMAGERY SHOWS DECREASING TREND IN CLOUD COVER IS FASTER THAN
EXPECTED. SO THE SKY FCST WAS UPDATED THRU MIDDAY TO REFLECT THIS.
SHOULD BE M/SUNNY THIS AM.
EQUIPMENT: YOU MAY BE AWARE THAT OBS WERE MISSING FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. THIS WAS DUE TO FAA MAINTENANCE. OBS RETURNED AS OF 10Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
ALOFT: THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN OVER THE NRN USA
THRU DAWN TOMORROW...WITH A VERY LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE NRN
ROCKIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN WNW FLOW OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS.
SUBTROPICAL HIGHS WILL CONT OVER THE SW AND SE USA...WITH THE
REMNANTS OF BILL LIFTING N INTO OK.
SURFACE: THE POLAR FRONT WAS QUASI-STATIONARY ON THE SRN FRINGE
OF THE WESTERLIES AND EXTENDED FROM WY-NEB E INTO THE OH VALLEY.
THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY THRU TONIGHT...AND WILL BE
MODULATED/MODIFIED BY TSTM ACTIVITY.
NOW: THE REMNANTS OF A DECAYING MCS ARE MOVING THRU AT THIS TIME.
RAIN-COOLED OUTFLOW HAS OVERTAKEN THE ENTIRE FCST AREA. WE DID SEE
MULTIPLE GUSTS UP TO 43 MPH ACROSS FURNAS/HARLAN/FRANKLIN COUNTIES
12AM-2AM WHEN IT WAS MORE POTENT.
TODAY: DECREASING CLOUDS THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW
REGARDING TSTM REDEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO A LACK OF
SYNOPTIC FORCING.
THE 00Z 4KM WRF-NMM HAS AN EXCELLENT HANDLE ON WHAT IS GOING ON
NOW...IT`S JUST TOO SLOW BY 4 HRS. IT SUGGESTS THE BEST
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE S AND E OF THE FCST AREA...PROBABLY ALONG THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GENERATED BY THIS MORNING`S MCS. DEVELOPMENTS IN
THE RAIN- COOLED AIR OVER THE FCST AREA LOOK VERY
ISOLATED/MINIMAL...AND IF THERE IS NOT ENOUGH TSTM ACTIVITY TO
FORM A COMMON COLD POOL...WHAT LITTLE ACTIVITY FIRES SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. THE 06Z HRRR HAS A SIMILAR IDEA AT 21Z.
ENOUGH CLEARING TODAY SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY...
WITH MLCAPE 2000-2500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR 30-40 KTS...HIGHEST
OVER S-CNTRL NEB. LOW-LVL VEERING RESULTS IN 0-3 KM SRH OF 150
J/KG. THIS WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL CONVECTIVE MODE. SPC
HAS MOST OF THE FCST AREA OUTLOOKED IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR.
TONIGHT: IT ALL HINGES ON WHAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON. IF ONLY A
FEW ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE FCST AREA...THEY WILL
DIMINISH AND END MID-LATE EVE. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH DEVELOPMENTS
TO THE W. THE SIGNAL IS NOT GREAT...BUT CELL MERGERS COULD RESULT
IN AN MCS THAT COULD PROPAGATE INTO NEB. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW
GIVEN THE LACK OF MODEL QPF CLUSTERING AND LOW SREF QPF
PROBABILITIES.
GIVEN LOW FCST CONFIDENCE...POPS ARE NO HIGHER THAN 20% TODAY-
TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SUBTLE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING WILL BE NOTED
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE TO START THE LONG- TERM
FORECAST PERIOD AT 12Z THURSDAY...AND ALTHOUGH THIS RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST TO FINISH THE WEEK...THERE ARE ALSO
INDICATIONS OF ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS
DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SUBTLE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATION WILL
CLEAR THE AREA THURSDAY AND AS A RESULT...~20% POPS CONTINUE IN
THE FORECAST FOR THE MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
ALTHOUGH THIS PERTURBATION IS EXPECTED TO HAVE CLEARED OUR AREA BY
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THERE ALSO REMAIN INDICATIONS OF HIGH
PLAINS CONVECTION PERHAPS SUSTAINING ITSELF LONG ENOUGH TO IMPACT
FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY EVENING AND AS A
RESULT...~20% POPS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR FAR WEST 00-06Z FRIDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...THE FIRST UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA...THUS
ELIMINATING ANY APPRECIABLE OMEGA. THIS...AND THE PRESENCE OF A
HEALTHY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC CAPPING INVERSION EACH
AFTERNOON...RESULTS IN A POP-FREE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MORE INTO THE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY TIME PERIOD...ANOTHER ROUND OF MULTIPLE UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATIONS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FIRST
RIDGE COULD BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION AND AS A
RESULT...WENT AHEAD WITH 20-30% POPS ACROSS VARIOUS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST
NEXT TUESDAY AS THE SECOND UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA.
AS WAS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...RESPECTABLE BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE
...ALONG WITH VARYING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PERTURBATIONS...WILL PROMOTE VARYING
LEVELS OF POTENTIAL ENERGY FROM DAY TO DAY DURING THE LONG-TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING...ENERGY LEVELS
GENERALLY RANGING FROM 1000-2000J/KG ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED. GIVEN
THIS...WILL CONTINUE MENTIONING THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE HWO FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
EVENING. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AIR MASS EARLY
NEXT WEEK SUGGESTS STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER COULD RESULT SHOULD
CONVECTION DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL...BUT AT THIS TIME IT
IS TOO EARLY TO INTRODUCE ANY MENTION OF SEVERE WEATHER THAT FAR
INTO THE FUTURE.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS WILL PROMOTE WARM
WEATHER DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 80S AND 90S AND LOWS IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S. AT
THIS TIME THE WARMEST DAY APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
LIKELY CLIMBING INTO THE 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWA AND
PERHAPS NEARING THE CENTURY MARK ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
THESE TEMPERATURE READINGS...IF REALIZED...WOULD HELP PROMOTE HEAT
INDEX READINGS OF 100-102 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. NOT YET
READY TO INTRODUCE HEAT WORDING IN THE HWO FOR THIS WEEKEND...BUT
THIS MAY BE SOMETHING TO CONSIDER IN THE COMING DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z THU MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
TODAY: VFR. CIG AND VSBY UNLIMITED THRU 17Z THEN SCT CU WILL
DEVELOP WITH BASES LIFTING TO 4-5K FT. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY
OF A TSTM WITH IFR VSBY AFTER 21Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL BE VRB UNDER 10 KTS AND
ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE LINGERING EFFECTS OF DISSIPATED
OVERNIGHT TSTM ACTIVITY AND A STALL FRONT. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
TONIGHT: A LOW PROBABILITY OF A TSTM. OTHERWISE MULTI-LAYERED VFR
CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 8K FT...DEPENDING ON WHERE TSTMS DEVELOP. WINDS
PROBABLY SE UNDER 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
349 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
ALOFT: THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN OVER THE NRN USA
THRU DAWN TOMORROW...WITH A VERY LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE NRN
ROCKIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN WNW FLOW OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS.
SUBTROPICAL HIGHS WILL CONT OVER THE SW AND SE USA...WITH THE
REMNANTS OF BILL LIFTING N INTO OK.
SURFACE: THE POLAR FRONT WAS QUASI-STATIONARY ON THE SRN FRINGE
OF THE WESTERLIES AND EXTENDED FROM WY-NEB E INTO THE OH VALLEY.
THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY THRU TONIGHT...AND WILL BE
MODULATED/MODIFIED BY TSTM ACTIVITY.
NOW: THE REMNANTS OF A DECAYING MCS ARE MOVING THRU AT THIS TIME.
RAIN-COOLED OUTFLOW HAS OVERTAKEN THE ENTIRE FCST AREA. WE DID SEE
MULTIPLE GUSTS UP TO 43 MPH ACROSS FURNAS/HARLAN/FRANKLIN COUNTIES
12AM-2AM WHEN IT WAS MORE POTENT.
TODAY: DECREASING CLOUDS THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW
REGARDING TSTM REDEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO A LACK OF
SYNOPTIC FORCING.
THE 00Z 4KM WRF-NMM HAS AN EXCELLENT HANDLE ON WHAT IS GOING ON
NOW...IT`S JUST TOO SLOW BY 4 HRS. IT SUGGESTS THE BEST
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE S AND E OF THE FCST AREA...PROBABLY ALONG THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GENERATED BY THIS MORNING`S MCS. DEVELOPMENTS IN
THE RAIN- COOLED AIR OVER THE FCST AREA LOOK VERY
ISOLATED/MINIMAL...AND IF THERE IS NOT ENOUGH TSTM ACTIVITY TO
FORM A COMMON COLD POOL...WHAT LITTLE ACTIVITY FIRES SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. THE 06Z HRRR HAS A SIMILAR IDEA AT 21Z.
ENOUGH CLEARING TODAY SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY...
WITH MLCAPE 2000-2500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR 30-40 KTS...HIGHEST
OVER S-CNTRL NEB. LOW-LVL VEERING RESULTS IN 0-3 KM SRH OF 150
J/KG. THIS WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL CONVECTIVE MODE. SPC
HAS MOST OF THE FCST AREA OUTLOOKED IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR.
TONIGHT: IT ALL HINGES ON WHAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON. IF ONLY A
FEW ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE FCST AREA...THEY WILL
DIMINISH AND END MID-LATE EVE. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH DEVELOPMENTS
TO THE W. THE SIGNAL IS NOT GREAT...BUT CELL MERGERS COULD RESULT
IN AN MCS THAT COULD PROPAGATE INTO NEB. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW
GIVEN THE LACK OF MODEL QPF CLUSTERING AND LOW SREF QPF
PROBABILITIES.
GIVEN LOW FCST CONFIDENCE...POPS ARE NO HIGHER THAN 20% TODAY-
TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SUBTLE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING WILL BE NOTED
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE TO START THE LONG- TERM
FORECAST PERIOD AT 12Z THURSDAY...AND ALTHOUGH THIS RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST TO FINISH THE WEEK...THERE ARE ALSO
INDICATIONS OF ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS
DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SUBTLE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATION WILL
CLEAR THE AREA THURSDAY AND AS A RESULT...~20% POPS CONTINUE IN
THE FORECAST FOR THE MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
ALTHOUGH THIS PERTURBATION IS EXPECTED TO HAVE CLEARED OUR AREA BY
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THERE ALSO REMAIN INDICATIONS OF HIGH
PLAINS CONVECTION PERHAPS SUSTAINING ITSELF LONG ENOUGH TO IMPACT
FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY EVENING AND AS A
RESULT...~20% POPS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR FAR WEST 00-06Z FRIDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...THE FIRST UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA...THUS
ELIMINATING ANY APPRECIABLE OMEGA. THIS...AND THE PRESENCE OF A
HEALTHY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC CAPPING INVERSION EACH
AFTERNOON...RESULTS IN A POP-FREE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MORE INTO THE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY TIME PERIOD...ANOTHER ROUND OF MULTIPLE UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATIONS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FIRST
RIDGE COULD BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION AND AS A
RESULT...WENT AHEAD WITH 20-30% POPS ACROSS VARIOUS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST
NEXT TUESDAY AS THE SECOND UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA.
AS WAS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...RESPECTABLE BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE
...ALONG WITH VARYING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PERTURBATIONS...WILL PROMOTE VARYING
LEVELS OF POTENTIAL ENERGY FROM DAY TO DAY DURING THE LONG-TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING...ENERGY LEVELS
GENERALLY RANGING FROM 1000-2000J/KG ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED. GIVEN
THIS...WILL CONTINUE MENTIONING THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE HWO FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
EVENING. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AIR MASS EARLY
NEXT WEEK SUGGESTS STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER COULD RESULT SHOULD
CONVECTION DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL...BUT AT THIS TIME IT
IS TOO EARLY TO INTRODUCE ANY MENTION OF SEVERE WEATHER THAT FAR
INTO THE FUTURE.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS WILL PROMOTE WARM
WEATHER DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 80S AND 90S AND LOWS IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S. AT
THIS TIME THE WARMEST DAY APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
LIKELY CLIMBING INTO THE 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWA AND
PERHAPS NEARING THE CENTURY MARK ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
THESE TEMPERATURE READINGS...IF REALIZED...WOULD HELP PROMOTE HEAT
INDEX READINGS OF 100-102 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. NOT YET
READY TO INTRODUCE HEAT WORDING IN THE HWO FOR THIS WEEKEND...BUT
THIS MAY BE SOMETHING TO CONSIDER IN THE COMING DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WED NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
REST OF THE NIGHT: VFR COULD TEMPORARILY DECAY TO MVFR OR IFR
TSTMS. THEREAFTER...MULTI-LAYERED VFR CLOUD DEBRIS. VRB WINDS AS
THESE STORMS OR THEIR REMNANTS MOVE THRU. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
WED: VFR. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARBY AND SCT POCKETS
OF MVFR/IFR TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP. WINDS OUTSIDE TSTMS WILL BE E-SE
UNDER 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: LOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH TSTMS.
WED EVE: PROBABLY VFR...OUTSIDE OF SCT MVFR/IFR TSTMS. E-ESE WINDS
UNDER 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: LOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH TSTMS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
959 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING AND DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. SKIES WILL CLEAR DURING
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS HIGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
NORTH COUNTRY ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
LIKELY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 959 PM EDT THURSDAY...ISSUED AN EARLY UPDATE PRIMARILY TO
CHANGE WEATHER WORDING TO AREAL COVERAGE AND TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.
AS THE HRRR AND OTHER CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE WAS HINTING AT
EARLIER, SOLID LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER HAS DEVELOPED
ALONG THE COLD FRONT, WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR SYRACUSE NY, MOVING RATHER QUICKLY
EASTWARD. SPC MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING IN
AN AXIS OF AROUND 500 J/KG MOST-UNSTABLE CAPE, WHICH BY ITSELF
ISN`T MUCH, BUT AIDED BY STRONGER FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND DYNAMIC
ASCENT FROM UPPER TROUGH THERE`S BEEN SOME LIGHTNING ALONG PARTS
OF THE LINE. EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN, AS
WELL AS OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN VERMONT, BUT MOSTLY SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT. POPS DECREASE RATHER
QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST AS FRONT CLEARS NORTH COUNTRY FROM
09-12Z, ACCOMPANIED BY MORE SHARPLY FALLING TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS.
LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 HAPPENING VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF FORECAST
AREA EARLY FRIDAY. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND MAYBE A FEW
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS TILL MID
MORNING. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON NORTHERLY
FLOW. EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT PROVIDING CLEAR
SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. LOWS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S...BUT 30S WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FROST
EXISTS IN THE NORMALLY COLDER PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT. FRIDAY`S MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO
THE LOWER 70S...OR ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SATURDAY WILL SLIDE EAST
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT A DRY DAY
WITH SUNSHINE GIVING WAY TO SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. 850 MB TEMPS REBOUND TO +12 TO +14C BY LATER IN THE
DAY. THESE TEMPS ALONG WITH SOME SUNSHINE SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES.
ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE BILL TRACKING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT TO NEW
JERSEY BY EARLY SUNDAY. WHILE MOST SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM REMAINS SOUTH OF OUR AREA...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DO
INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES SATURDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. EXPECT CHANCES OF
RAIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 328 PM EDT THURSDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF THE CONUS REMAINS UNDER FAST WESTERLY FLOW WILL SEVERAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED. FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TO AFFECT
THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, INTERACTING WITH MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS
OF TS BILL. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING SUNDAY, AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. SEVERAL MORE SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS WE REMAIN UNDER PERSISTENT WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW WITH THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING UNTIL OUR PATTERN
REPEATS ITSELF WITH STRONG SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
IN REGARDS TO TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW
DOMINATING THROUGH THE PERIOD HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 70S, AND LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
IN THE 50S AND 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING WITH SOME MVFR CEILINGS AT KMPV AND KRUT. A COLD FRONT IS
MOVING TOWARD THE AREA AND THERE WILL BE SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT MOVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN
03Z AND 09Z. CEILINGS WILL BE IN THE VFR AND MVFR CATEGORIES WITH
THE SHOWERS...THEN RETURN TO VFR AFTER ABOUT 10Z. GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT
BETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z ACROSS THE AREA WITH GUSTS IN THE 10 TO 20
KNOT RANGE FOR MUCH OF FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
00Z SAT - 00Z SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX.
00Z SUN - 12Z MON...MVFR/IFR. SHRA LIKELY. CHANCE TSRA.
12Z MON - 00Z WED...VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO
25 KNOTS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE BROAD LAKE.
EXPECT CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON SOUTH FACING BAYS AND INLETS. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WINDS WILL TURN
TO THE NORTHWEST AND REMAIN IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE BEFORE
TAPERING OFF FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...EVENSON/LAHIFF
MARINE...EVENSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1103 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH HUMIDITY AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE HEAT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY
BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 PM THURSDAY...PATTERN REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FROM
THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH A LARGE RIDGE OVERHEAD THAT IS SOMEWHAT
TEMPERED BY A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
SEVERAL UPPER IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE PERIPHERY. AT THE
SURFACE...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE...BUT
ONCE AGAIN A THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT IS DRIVING
CONVECTION IN WHAT IS STILL A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE.
ALTHOUGH THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE IS QUITE WORKED OVER FROM EARLIER
STORMS...THE RESIDUAL LAYER IS MAINTAINING STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM
EXTREME SURFACE HEATING THIS AFTN...AND ONCE AGAIN SMALL
DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL TAP THIS AND DRIVE TSTMS OVERNIGHT. AS WINDS
HAVE VEERED AROUND TO THE SW ONCE AGAIN...IT APPEARS THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH IS REDEVELOPING EVEN AT THIS LATE HOUR...AND AN EXPANSIVE
AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS FIRED WEST OF THE CWA. MOST OF THIS
SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...BUT A FEW STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-95...WHERE CHC POP IS CARRIED FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED...AND THE NSSL WRF AND HRRR SHOW A MOSTLY DRY NIGHT LOCALLY.
TEMPS WILL AGAIN STAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL...AND MINS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
REACHED MOST PLACES WHERE RAIN-COOLED AIR DEVELOPED LATE IN THE EVE.
TEMPS WILL BE STEADY OR EVEN RISE A BIT OVERNIGHT...RANGING FROM
75-80.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE WELL
INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY AS SURFACE FEATURES...INCREASING MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY COME INTO PLAY. WITH MID TO UPPER RIDGE STILL IN
PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...JUST BARELY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE FORECAST
AREA ON FRIDAY WHILE THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL PUSH
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE SEABREEZE AND ANY LINGERING BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS DAYS
CONVECTION. INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON...A MORE EASTWARD TRACK OF
REMNANTS OF BILL...NOW A SHORTWAVE...BECOMES EVIDENT IN LATEST
GUIDANCE...WITH A TRACK ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER. AS THIS
OCCURS...WILL SEE THE UPPER RIDGE COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING
FOR THE PREDOMINANT FLOW TO CONTINUE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. WITH
THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE PUSHING INLAND...EXPECT MAJORITY OF THE
MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE CONVECTION TO REMAIN INLAND...THOUGH
CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE COAST. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACHING JUST OVER THE 2 INCH MARK EACH
DAY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD AMOUNT TO AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH GIVE OR TAKE...WHICH FALLS IN LINE WITH CURRENT WPC QPF
FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY 12Z.
A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...WHILE COULD SEE CONDITIONS MET AGAIN ON SATURDAY. THERE
WILL BE A BIT OF RELIEF IN ACTUAL TEMPERATURES THOUGH...TRENDING A
FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN HAVE SEEN IN PAST DAYS WITH LOW TO MID 90S
ALONG THE COAST AND MID 90S INLAND. THIS IS A RESULT OF THE AREA
LOOSING THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE...ALONG WITH ANTICIPATED
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN COOLED AIR FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...EXPECT MID 70S EACH NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...THE THEME FOR THE EXTENDED REMAINS THE
SAME...HOT AND MOSTLY DRY AS THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
WILL BE DOMINATED BY DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE. THE AXIS OF THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE WILL TAKE ON A SLIGHT NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TILT FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GULF COAST. WITH THIS
CONFIGURATION...THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS THE AREA COULD BE ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN OCCASIONAL MCS OR TWO BUT THESE ARE ALL
BUT IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HAVE MAINTAINED
THE MOSTLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH A SLIGHT NOD TO A DIURNAL
PATTERN. THE LATEST MEX NUMBERS HAVE COOLED SLIGHTLY SO THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE...NOT WANTING TO JUMP ON A COOLING TREND WITHOUT MORE
CONSISTENCY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...AN AREA OF TSRA FROM KILM TO KCRE/KMYR WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE TO ISOLD SHOWERS. OTHER SHRA/TSRA COULD POTENTIALLY
REACH KFLO/KLBT THIS EVNG...BUT SINCE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN WELL
WORKED OVER FROM EARLIER STRONG STORMS CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THINK
MOST TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR THIS EVNG. NUMEROUS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WILL LEAD TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF WIND DIRECTIONS THIS
EVNG...BUT GUIDANCE INSISTS DIRECTIONS WILL RECOVER TO SW-W AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BUT THINK MOST WILL
STAY TO THE N. THERE IS A SHOT OF TEMPO MVFR VSBYS AT KFLO/KLBT
IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS BUT CONFIDENCE OF IFR IS LOW.
AROUND DAYBREAK WINDS SHOULD VEER TO THE SW-W. WINDS WILL BECOME S-
SSW AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AND SW AT THE INLAND TERMINALS BY LATE
MRNG AND EARLY AFTN. SHRA/ISOLD TSRA EXPECTED BY LATE AFTN PERSISTING
INTO THE EVNG.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH
MAINLY VFR. LESSER CHANCES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 PM THURSDAY...BERMUDA HIGH HAS RE-ESTABLISHED ITSELF
AFTER CONVECTION THIS EVENING CAUSED MESOSCALE CHANGES TO THE WINDS
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. AS THIS OCCURS...SW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TO 10-15 KTS...AND THEN PERSIST AT THESE SPEEDS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEAS WHICH LIKELY BECAME
CHOPPY WITH THE MYRIAD BOUNDARIES AND WIND SHIFTS EARLIER...WILL RE-
ATTAIN THE PREDOMINANT SW WIND CHOP...WITH SEAS 2-3 FT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...A SFC BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
THE DECLINING INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
SFC TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE AT TIMES. INTO SATURDAY MORNING...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH WINDS AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS.
EXPECT SEAS TO RANGE BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS BASICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT
SOME INCREASE BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS VIA A SLIGHTLY
ENHANCED NOCTURNAL JET BUT THIS SHOULD JUST ADD A KNOT OR TWO TO
THE WIND SPEEDS. SEAS ARE MOSTLY 2-4 FEET.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR SCZ017-023-024-
032-033-039-053-055.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ087-096-099-
105-107-109.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...JDW
SHORT TERM...SGL
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1246 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES WITH A THERMAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
OF NORTH CAROLINA. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN DISSIPATE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM WEDNESDAY...MCS HAS WEAKENED AND MOVE OFF OF THE
NORTHEAST NC COAST LATE TONIGHT. RADAR IS DETECTING WHAT LOOKS TO
BE THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FROM NORTHERN LENOIR COUNTY EAST TO THE
OUTER BANKS NEAR SALVO MOVING SOUTH. NOT SEEING ANY PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY AND A QUICK PEAK AT 00Z NAM
AND THE HRRR AND RAP-13 MODELS INDICATE DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT SO
WILL REMOVE POPS FROM THE FORECAST. THE FLOW SHIFTS TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY
OVERNIGHT AS WE ARE NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT COOLING BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY WITH MIN TEMPS MAINLY 75-80 AGAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SFC FRONTAL
BNDRY WILL PUSH THROUGH MOST OF AREA DURING MORNING...STALLING
NEAR SRN SECTIONS DURING AFTN. SOME WEAK CAA WILL BE FELT BEHIND
FRONT MAINLY OVER NE SECTIONS...WITH NRN OBX HELD TO MID 80S WITH
NE WINDS MOST OF DAY. LOW LVL THICKNESSES WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER
OVER REST OF AREA...SUPPORTING MAX TEMPS MAINLY MID 90S SW HALF OF
AREA. APPARENT TEMPS WILL BE HELD TO 98-102 FOR MOST OF AREA AND
DO NOT PLAN TO POST HEAT ADVISORY FOR WED.
WITH FRONTAL BNDRY STALLING OVER SRN SECTIONS...SOME CONVERGENCE
WITH SEA BREEZE LIKELY AND COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A TRIGGER FOR
SCT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...AND CONTINUED PREVIOUS FCST 20/30 POPS
ALL BUT OBX.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 PM TUESDAY...A PERSISTENT SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS
ANCHORED ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE PIEDMONT THERMAL
TROUGH RE-ESTABLISHES WEST OF THE AREA THURSDAY WITH A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST, CREATING A WEAK
LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE AREA CENTERED OVER EASTERN NC WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER,
MODELS ARE NOT INITIATING CONVECTION UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
WHEN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IMPROVES WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/MID ATLANTIC. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE
POPS INLAND TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG/OFF THE COAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE MID 90S INLAND TO
85-90 ALONG THE COAST.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SLIGHT DIFFERENCES CONTINUE IN
THE 12Z GUIDANCE LATE IN THE WEEK, MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH HOW
THEY HANDLE THE MOISTURE PLUME FROM TROPICAL STORM BILL CURRENTLY
MAKING LANDFALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST. CURRENT GUIDANCE
KEEPS THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THOUGH
THE UPPER RIDGE BECOMES SHUNTED SOUTHEAST SLIGHTLY OFF THE FL
COAST BY SATURDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS SUGGEST A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO EASTERN NC FRIDAY, THOUGH
BEST UPPER SUPPORT/FORCING REMAIN IN CENTRAL VA, WITH THE FRONT
WASHING OUT OVER THE REGION SATURDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AGAIN
ENSUES OVER EASTERN NC. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MAINLY
DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF KEEP 850MB TEMPS AROUND 20 DEGREES WITH LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES AROUND 1425-1440M SO THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE AND EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S INLAND WITH 85-90 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE REMNANTS OF TS BILL LIFT WELL NORTH
OF THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW BRIEFLY DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS ARE WEAKER WITH A UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY
DIGGING INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY THE CAROLINAS
THOUGH THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL DROP
THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. CONTINUE DIURNALLY
ENHANCED CONVECTION WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH 850MB TEMPS REMAINING
AROUND 20 DEGREES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING HIGHS IN THE 90S INLAND
AND MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST. ONLY SLIGHT COOLING FOR
TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S INLAND AND
MID 80S ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM WEDNESDAY...CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY
FOG/LOW CLOUDS BEHIND IT TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR BRIEF SUB
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP. LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE NAM GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 450 PM TUES...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TAF SITES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
ISOLATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN MAINLY DIURNAL STORMS POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON. PRE- DAWN STRATUS AND/OR FOG MAY PRODUCE SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE
PRECIPITATION.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM WEDNESDAY...WSW WINDS 5-15 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
LATE THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT NORTH 10 TO 15 KT BEHIND THE
SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER
THE SRN WATERS WED AFTN...WITH WINDS BECOMING E-SE THERE AS SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS. SEAS BUILD TO 2-4 FT OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING ON
WED.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 450 PM TUES...THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
FLOW BECOMING SOUTHERLY THEN SOUTHWESTERLY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT
WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA AND STALLS FRIDAY BRINGING LIGHTER
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION, MAINLY 15 KT OR LESS. THIS FRONT
DISSIPATES BY SATURDAY WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURNING AND
INCREASING TO 15-20 KT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND SOME MODELS
ARE EVEN AS STRONG AS 25 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
WATERS. SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 4 FEET ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY, HOWEVER SEAS MAY BRIEFLY BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET
THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
SEAS BUILD AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND COULD SEE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOP.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JME/BTC/JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...SK/DAG
AVIATION...JME/SK/DAG
MARINE...JME/BTC/JBM/SK/DAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1227 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED FOG ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WITH THIS UPDATE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION
ARE NOT SHOWING ANY FOG EXCEPT A VERY FEW STATIONS. AT THIS TIME
IT APPEARS CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER WITH PERHAPS SOME
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 925 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
FOR THIS UPDATE...TRIMMED BACK CLOUD COVER IN THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS. HRRR MODEL OUTPUT SEEMS
TO AGREE WITH THIS PROGRESSION AND USED IT AS GUIDANCE FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. ALSO DECREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST
AS MOST OF THE SHOWERS HAVE EITHER MOVED OUT OF THE AREA OR
DISSIPATED. THE ONLY OTHER CHANGE THAT WAS MADE WAS TO DELAY THE
ONSET OF HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. TRIMMED PRECIP CHANCES IN THE EAST BASED
ON RADAR TRENDS AND TOOK THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE ONGOING
SHOWERS IN THE NEAR TERM...CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT...THEN CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY.
CURRENTLY...QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT REMAINS WITH AN EMBEDDED S/WV
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA WITH A SFC RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. AREA OF
MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE SOUTHWEST NOW
MAINLY DRY. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE FROM WEST TO EAST THOUGH THE
DAY WITH PRECIP ENDING AT KBIS MOMENTARILY...AND THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY THIS EVENING. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTHWEST...ALTHOUGH THIS IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY THE LONGER
STRATUS REMAINS IN PLACE.
EMBEDDED WAVE EXITS OFF TO OUR EAST LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS ALL OF WEST AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ALL MODELS INDICATING STRATUS FIELD
EXPANDING ACROSS MOST IF NOT ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AFTER 00Z...SO SKY COVER WAS KEPT ELEVATED TONIGHT WHICH
WILL IN TURN KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY MODERATE IN THE UPPER
40S/LOW 50S. WITH HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE AND WITH
RECENT MODERATE RAINFALL...FOG IS FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY THE
STRATUS/DEVELOP FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
WHERE THE RAIN FELL. HIGH RES MODELS INDICATING POSSIBLE DENSE FOG
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...SO
THIS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE HEADLINES.
STRATUS AND FOG BURN OFF MOST AREAS 12-15Z TOMORROW
MORNING...LINGERING ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND JAMES
RIVER VALLEY TILL LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
STRONG MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
CANADA WILL PUSH A SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHEAST INTO
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
MUCAPE WILL ACCOMPANY THE FROPA SO WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AN ACTIVE
QUASI-ZONAL PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT EVERY
18 TO 36 HOURS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSES MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
STATE. LIMITED CAPE WITH THE NAM DEPICTING 100-500 J/KG AND THE GFS
ZERO.
THURSDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH
LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. INSTABILITY INCREASES IN THE
WEST WITH TIME DURING THE DAY AS THE NEXT STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WAVE MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WIND SHEAR INCREASES
WITH SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE TO H850 WINDS AND SOUTHWESTERLY H700
WINDS...BUT THE BEST CAPE REMAINS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE STATE.
STILL...COULD BE STRONG STORMS IN THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY NIGHT YET ANOTHER STRONGER SET OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WAVES
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE STATE. HAVE HIGH CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WIND SHEAR INCREASES FURTHER WITH
OVER 60 KNOTS OF SHEAR - SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS...A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WITH SOUTHERLY H850 WINDS AT 30-
45 KNOTS AND SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY H700 WINDS. THE LIMITING FACTOR
FOR SEVERE STORMS IS MOST UNSTABLE CAPE...WITH VALUES REACHING 1000
J/KG OVER SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...BUT MUCH
STRONGER VALUES FARTHER SOUTH. STILL...COULD BE SOME STRONG STORMS
SOUTHWEST AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL.
FRIDAY IS WHEN THE STRONG/HIGH CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES COINCIDE OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL JET
MOVES/DEVELOPS INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THE STRONGEST STORMS FOR
OUR AREA MAY BE THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON
FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY EVENING THE LOW LEVEL JET IS INTO
MINNESOTA...HOWEVER THE NEXT ROUND OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSES
MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY STRONG...FRIDAY NIGHT FOR WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST NEARLY
EACH PERIOD SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED EAST LEAVING BEHIND LOW CEILINGS FOR
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. IT APPEARS THAT ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE PATCHY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
CEILINGS LOWERING INTO THE IFR AND EVEN LIFR RANGE AT
KDIK...KBIS...AND KJMS. THE EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS ENDS RIGHT
ALONG SITES KMOT AND KISN...THESE SITES MAY GO IN AND OUT OF MVFR
AND IFR CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE LOW CLOUDS
LIFT AND PUSH EAST.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MM
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...MM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
152 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTH LIFTS BACK NORTH WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM
BILL REMNANTS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
TRACKING A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS HEADING INTO THE HTS
AREA...BUT CURRENTLY IN A LULL RIGHT NOW IN TERMS OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CWA. NORTHWESTERN ZONES RECEIVING STRATIFORM RAIN
FROM AN OLD CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...AND THIS MAY AFFECT EARLY
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. MEANWHILE...SOUTHERN ZONES ARE GETTING
EXPOSURE TO SUN THIS MORNING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
00Z NAM NOT HANDLING THE WAVE COMING OUT OF THE MIDWEST VERY
WELL...SO RELIED MORE ON THE HRRR FOR POPS TODAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL SLOWLY RETURN NORTHWARD
TODAY. AM A BIT CONCERNED WITH POTENTIAL FOR WATER PROBLEMS...BUT
THE MORNING ARRIVAL OF THE FIRST WAVE WILL LIMIT HEATING.
ALSO...MUCH OF THE NORTHERN COUNTIES HAD A BREAK FROM HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS
SITUATION HOWEVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH STILL OVER THE SOUTHEAST US PLENTY OF
SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE HIGH ACROSS WEST
VIRGINIA. THIS WILL MEAN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
OCCUR WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS. EVEN WITH DECENT MODEL
AGREEMENT TIMING EACH FEATURE IS VERY DIFFICULT SO WENT WITH MORE OF
A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH.
WITH SUCH A TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE AND WHAT WILL ESSENTIALLY BE A
WEEK OF HIGH PWS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA EACH DAY BRINGS ON MORE OF A CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO. AT SOME POINT IN TIME A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS ON THURSDAY
FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT
RISK FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY.
THE LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES WITH
THIS. IN ADDITION THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT POSSIBLE WIND GUSTS
FOR THE MOUNTAINS. WITH SUCH SATURATED SOILS THIS COULD CAUSE SOME
TREES TO FALL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE REMNANTS OF WHAT WAS TROPICAL STORM BILL SHOULD BE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE START OF THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP
SKIES CLOUDY AND RAIN CHANGES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
START OF THE NEXT WEEK. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
PERIOD AS CONTINUED RAINFALL IS LIKELY IN THE PATH OF THIS SYSTEM.
THIS IS LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WILL MAKE SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR TIMING. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS NOW MOVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS.
HAVE SOME CLEARING OVER THE EASTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN OHIO.
THIS SHOULD GENERATE ROUND TWO OF THE CONVECTION TODAY WITH THE
HEATING TAKING PLACE IN THE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.
CONVECTION WILL BE HIT OR MISS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BECAUSE OF THIS...AMENDMENTS AND TEMPOS ARE
LIKELY TO BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST TODAY FOR TSRA.
GOING EASY ON THE FOG TONIGHT. THINK THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH CLOUD
COVER...AND SHOULD SEE SOME WIND OVER THE NORTHERN SITES. BEST
CHANCES FOR FOG WILL BE HTS AND CRW WHERE THE SKY HAS A BETTER
CHANCE TO CLEAR. AMOUNTS OF RAIN WILL ADD TO THE FOG EQUATION
TONIGHT.
MORE CONVECTION EXPECTED FROM MORNING ONWARD THURSDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONVECTION TIMING AND LOCATIONS WILL VARY.
FOG SET UP FOR TONIGHT IS NOT IN PLACE JUST YET. MAY NEED TO ADD A
LOW IFR STRATUS DECK LATER TONIGHT.
.AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF MORNING FOG WILL DEPENDS OF LOCATIONS THAT
GET RAIN AND CAN CLEAR OUT AT NIGHT.
&&
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/RPY/JMV
NEAR TERM...RPY/26
SHORT TERM...FB
LONG TERM...JSH/JMV
AVIATION...26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1122 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTH LIFTS BACK NORTH WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM
BILL REMNANTS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
TRACKING A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS HEADING INTO THE HTS
AREA...BUT CURRENTLY IN A LULL RIGHT NOW IN TERMS OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CWA. NORTHWESTERN ZONES RECEIVING STRATIFORM RAIN
FROM AN OLD CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...AND THIS MAY AFFECT EARLY
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. MEANWHILE...SOUTHERN ZONES ARE GETTING
EXPOSURE TO SUN THIS MORNING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
00Z NAM NOT HANDLING THE WAVE COMING OUT OF THE MIDWEST VERY
WELL...SO RELIED MORE ON THE HRRR FOR POPS TODAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL SLOWLY RETURN NORTHWARD
TODAY. AM A BIT CONCERNED WITH POTENTIAL FOR WATER PROBLEMS...BUT
THE MORNING ARRIVAL OF THE FIRST WAVE WILL LIMIT HEATING.
ALSO...MUCH OF THE NORTHERN COUNTIES HAD A BREAK FROM HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS
SITUATION HOWEVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH STILL OVER THE SOUTHEAST US PLENTY OF
SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE HIGH ACROSS WEST
VIRGINIA. THIS WILL MEAN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
OCCUR WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS. EVEN WITH DECENT MODEL
AGREEMENT TIMING EACH FEATURE IS VERY DIFFICULT SO WENT WITH MORE OF
A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH.
WITH SUCH A TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE AND WHAT WILL ESSENTIALLY BE A
WEEK OF HIGH PWS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA EACH DAY BRINGS ON MORE OF A CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO. AT SOME POINT IN TIME A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS ON THURSDAY
FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT
RISK FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY.
THE LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES WITH
THIS. IN ADDITION THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT POSSIBLE WIND GUSTS
FOR THE MOUNTAINS. WITH SUCH SATURATED SOILS THIS COULD CAUSE SOME
TREES TO FALL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE REMNANTS OF WHAT WAS TROPICAL STORM BILL SHOULD BE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE START OF THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP
SKIES CLOUDY AND RAIN CHANGES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
START OF THE NEXT WEEK. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
PERIOD AS CONTINUED RAINFALL IS LIKELY IN THE PATH OF THIS SYSTEM.
THIS IS LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WILL MAKE SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR TIMING. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA WILL
SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR THE FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING. A DISTURBANCE WILL THEN
PUSH THROUGH SOUTHEAST OHIO INTO NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA LATER THIS
MORNING. THE STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD GRADUALLY RAISE
INTO A CUMULUS DECK DURING THE DAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FORMING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.
DUE TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...CLOUD DECKS COULD FORM AT
MOST ANY LEVEL TONIGHT...LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE. BEST BET WOULD
BE A STRATUS DECK ACROSS NORTHERN WV AND SOUTHEAST OHIO. FOG IS A
POSSIBILITY WHERE CLOUDS DO NOT FORM.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW THIS MORNING...MEDIUM THIS AFTERNOON...LOW
TONIGHT.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HEIGHT OF A STRATUS DECK THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN TONIGHT COULD VARY CONSIDERABLY. DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE
OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AIRMASS...SPECIFIC TIMING AND INTENSITY ARE
NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS AFTER THE FIRST FEW HOURS. FOG COULD BE
MORE AN ISSUE TONIGHT.
.AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF MORNING FOG WILL DEPENDS OF LOCATIONS THAT
GET RAIN AND CAN CLEAR OUT AT NIGHT.
&&
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/RPY/JMV
NEAR TERM...RPY/26
SHORT TERM...FB
LONG TERM...JSH/JMV
AVIATION...RPY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1016 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTH LIFTS BACK NORTH WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM
BILL REMNANTS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
TRACKING A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS HEADING INTO THE HTS
AREA...BUT CURRENTLY IN A LULL RIGHT NOW IN TERMS OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CWA. NORTHWESTERN ZONES RECEIVING STRATIFORM RAIN
FROM AN OLD CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...AND THIS MAY AFFECT EARLY
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. MEANWHILE...SOUTHERN ZONES ARE GETTING
EXPOSURE TO SUN THIS MORNING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
00Z NAM NOT HANDLING THE WAVE COMING OUT OF THE MIDWEST VERY
WELL...SO RELIED MORE ON THE HRRR FOR POPS TODAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL SLOWLY RETURN NORTHWARD
TODAY. AM A BIT CONCERNED WITH POTENTIAL FOR WATER PROBLEMS...BUT
THE MORNING ARRIVAL OF THE FIRST WAVE WILL LIMIT HEATING.
ALSO...MUCH OF THE NORTHERN COUNTIES HAD A BREAK FROM HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS
SITUATION HOWEVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH STILL OVER THE SOUTHEAST US PLENTY OF
SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE HIGH ACROSS WEST
VIRGINIA. THIS WILL MEAN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
OCCUR WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS. EVEN WITH DECENT MODEL
AGREEMENT TIMING EACH FEATURE IS VERY DIFFICULT SO WENT WITH MORE OF
A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH.
WITH SUCH A TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE AND WHAT WILL ESSENTIALLY BE A
WEEK OF HIGH PWS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA EACH DAY BRINGS ON MORE OF A CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO. AT SOME POINT IN TIME A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS ON THURSDAY
FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT
RISK FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY.
THE LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BOB WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THE CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES WITH THIS. IN
ADDITION THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT POSSIBLE WIND GUSTS FOR THE
MOUNTAINS. WITH SUCH SATURATED SOILS THIS COULD CAUSE SOME TREES TO
FALL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE REMNANTS OF WHAT WAS TROPICAL STORM BILL SHOULD BE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE START OF THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP
SKIES CLOUDY AND RAIN CHANGES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
START OF THE NEXT WEEK. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
PERIOD AS CONTINUED RAINFALL IS LIKELY IN THE PATH OF THIS SYSTEM.
THIS IS LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WILL MAKE SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR TIMING. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA WILL
SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR THE FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING. A DISTURBANCE WILL THEN
PUSH THROUGH SOUTHEAST OHIO INTO NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA LATER THIS
MORNING. THE STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD GRADUALLY RAISE
INTO A CUMULUS DECK DURING THE DAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FORMING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.
DUE TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...CLOUD DECKS COULD FORM AT
MOST ANY LEVEL TONIGHT...LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE. BEST BET WOULD
BE A STRATUS DECK ACROSS NORTHERN WV AND SOUTHEAST OHIO. FOG IS A
POSSIBILITY WHERE CLOUDS DO NOT FORM.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW THIS MORNING...MEDIUM THIS AFTERNOON...LOW
TONIGHT.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HEIGHT OF A STRATUS DECK THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN TONIGHT COULD VARY CONSIDERABLY. DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE
OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AIRMASS...SPECIFIC TIMING AND INTENSITY ARE
NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS AFTER THE FIRST FEW HOURS. FOG COULD BE
MORE AN ISSUE TONIGHT.
.AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF MORNING FOG WILL DEPENDS OF LOCATIONS THAT
GET RAIN AND CAN CLEAR OUT AT NIGHT.
&&
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/RPY/JMV
NEAR TERM...RPY/26
SHORT TERM...FB
LONG TERM...JSH/JMV
AVIATION...RPY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
557 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTH LIFTS BACK NORTH WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM
BILL REMNANTS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
00Z NAM NOT HANDLING THE WAVE COMING OUT OF THE MIDWEST VERY
WELL...SO RELIED MORE ON THE HRRR FOR POPS TODAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL SLOWLY RETURN NORTHWARD
TODAY. AM A BIT CONCERNED WITH POTENTIAL FOR WATER PROBLEMS...BUT
THE MORNING ARRIVAL OF THE FIRST WAVE WILL LIMIT HEATING.
ALSO...MUCH OF THE NORTHERN COUNTIES HAD A BREAK FROM HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS
SITUATION HOWEVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH STILL OVER THE SOUTHEAST US PLENTY OF
SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE HIGH ACROSS WEST
VIRGINIA. THIS WILL MEAN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
OCCUR WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS. EVEN WITH DECENT MODEL
AGREEMENT TIMING EACH FEATURE IS VERY DIFFICULT SO WENT WITH MORE OF
A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH.
WITH SUCH A TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE AND WHAT WILL ESSENTIALLY BE A
WEEK OF HIGH PWS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA EACH DAY BRINGS ON MORE OF A CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO. AT SOME POINT IN TIME A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS ON THURSDAY
FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT
RISK FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY.
THE LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BOB WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THE CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES WITH THIS. IN
ADDITION THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT POSSIBLE WIND GUSTS FOR THE
MOUNTAINS. WITH SUCH SATURATED SOILS THIS COULD CAUSE SOME TREES TO
FALL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE REMNANTS OF WHAT WAS TROPICAL STORM BILL SHOULD BE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE START OF THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP
SKIES CLOUDY AND RAIN CHANGES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
START OF THE NEXT WEEK. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
PERIOD AS CONTINUED RAINFALL IS LIKELY IN THE PATH OF THIS SYSTEM.
THIS IS LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WILL MAKE SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR TIMING. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA WILL
SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR THE FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING. A DISTURBANCE WILL THEN
PUSH THROUGH SOUTHEAST OHIO INTO NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA LATER THIS
MORNING. THE STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD GRADUALLY RAISE
INTO A CUMULUS DECK DURING THE DAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FORMING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.
DUE TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...CLOUD DECKS COULD FORM AT
MOST ANY LEVEL TONIGHT...LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE. BEST BET WOULD
BE A STRATUS DECK ACROSS NORTHERN WV AND SOUTHEAST OHIO. FOG IS A
POSSIBILITY WHERE CLOUDS DO NOT FORM.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW THIS MORNING...MEDIUM THIS AFTERNOON...LOW
TONIGHT.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HEIGHT OF A STRATUS DECK THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN TONIGHT COULD VARY CONSIDERABLY. DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE
OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AIRMASS...SPECIFIC TIMING AND INTENSITY ARE
NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS AFTER THE FIRST FEW HOURS. FOG COULD BE
MORE AN ISSUE TONIGHT.
.AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF MORNING FOG WILL DEPENDS OF LOCATIONS THAT
GET RAIN AND CAN CLEAR OUT AT NIGHT.
&&
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/RPY/JMV
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...FB
LONG TERM...JSH/JMV
AVIATION...RPY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
445 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTH LIFTS BACK NORTH WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM
BILL REMNANTS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
00Z NAM NOT HANDLING THE WAVE COMING OUT OF THE MIDWEST VERY
WELL...SO RELIED MORE ON THE HRRR FOR POPS TODAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL SLOWLY RETURN NORTHWARD
TODAY. AM A BIT CONCERNED WITH POTENTIAL FOR WATER PROBLEMS...BUT
THE MORNING ARRIVAL OF THE FIRST WAVE WILL LIMIT HEATING.
ALSO...MUCH OF THE NORTHERN COUNTIES HAD A BREAK FROM HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS
SITUATION HOWEVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH STILL OVER THE SOUTHEAST US PLENTY OF
SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE HIGH ACROSS WEST
VIRGINIA. THIS WILL MEAN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
OCCUR WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS. EVEN WITH DECENT MODEL
AGREEMENT TIMING EACH FEATURE IS VERY DIFFICULT SO WENT WITH MORE OF
A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH.
WITH SUCH A TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE AND WHAT WILL ESSENTIALLY BE A
WEEK OF HIGH PWS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA EACH DAY BRINGS ON MORE OF A CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO. AT SOME POINT IN TIME A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS ON THURSDAY
FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT
RISK FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY.
THE LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BOB WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THE CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES WITH THIS. IN
ADDITION THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT POSSIBLE WIND GUSTS FOR THE
MOUNTAINS. WITH SUCH SATURATED SOILS THIS COULD CAUSE SOME TREES TO
FALL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE REMNANTS OF WHAT WAS TROPICAL STORM BILL SHOULD BE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE START OF THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP
SKIES CLOUDY AND RAIN CHANGES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
START OF THE NEXT WEEK. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
PERIOD AS CONTINUED RAINFALL IS LIKELY IN THE PATH OF THIS SYSTEM.
THIS IS LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WILL MAKE SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR TIMING. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT HAS STALLED ACROSS NORTHERN WV AND SOUTHEAST OHIO. THIS
HAS LEFT ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. ALL THIS MOISTURE MEANS
THAT CLOUDS COULD FORM AT MOST ANY LEVEL...AND ANY CLEARING COULD
MEAN INSTANT FOG. THIS LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THIS
MORNING. TO COMPLICATE MATTERS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT...BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS BEFORE DAWN.
THE STRATUS DECK SHOULD GRADUALLY RAISE INTO A CUMULUS DECK DURING
THE DAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FORMING DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HEIGHT OF A STRATUS DECK THIS MORNING COULD
VARY CONSIDERABLY. ANY HOLES IN THE CLOUDS COULD ALLOW FOR
VISIBILITIES TO DROP DUE TO FOG. DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AIRMASS...SPECIFIC TIMING AND INTENSITY ARE
NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS.
.AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF MORNING FOG WILL DEPENDS OF LOCATIONS THAT
GET RAIN AND CAN CLEAR OUT AT NIGHT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/RPY/JMV
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...FB
LONG TERM...JSH/JMV
AVIATION...RPY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
353 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HOT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SPREADING OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES
WILL RESULT IN WAVY WEATHER FOCUSING BOUNDARIES TO LINGER ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO NEXT WEEK. EXPECT
PERIODS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR IN THIS PATTERN WITH AN
ENHANCED RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF BILL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
RADAR LOOPS SHOWS MORE PCPN ALOFT THAN IS ACTUALLY REACHING THE
GROUND WHICH HAS BEEN A LITTLE MISLEADING IF LOOKING AT A
COMPOSITE RADAR. AREA OF HIGHEST DBZ COVERS ONLY THE SWRN 1/3 OF
THE CWA WHERE HIGHEST POPS ARE PAINTED. HRRR AND OTHER MODEL
GUIDANCE WAS TOO SLOW WITH THE EWD MVMT OF PCPN INTO SWRN PA. THIS
IS NOT SURPRISING GIVEN FAST/LOW AMPLITUDE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
CONSISTING OF WEAK SHORTWAVES TRACKING EWD ALONG SRN EDGE OF
WESTERLIES...ALIGNED WITH DEEP MSTR/PWS POOLED ALONG WAVY EAST-
WEST ORIENTED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ESSENTIALLY ALONG THE OH
RIVER.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER INDIANA IS PROGGED TO FOLLOW A
SIMILAR PATH THROUGH SRN OH AND BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF WAA
SHOWERS/ELEVATED CONVECTION TO SOUTH CENTRAL/SERN PA LATER
TONIGHT. MODEL DATA GENERALLY AGREES ON THIS BUT TIMING MAY BE AN
ISSUE. THE HEAVIEST QPF SHOULD STAY TO THE SOUTH AS QPF TENDS TO
BE FCST TO FAR NORTH BY THE MODELS IN THESE TYPES OF FLOW REGIMES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE FCST FOR DAY2/THURS STILL LOOKS SOMEWHAT MESSY WITH LEFTOVER
CLOUDS/PCPN EARLY IN THE DAY AND NEARBY WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PIVOTING ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM SUGGESTS MUCH OF THE CWA WILL
BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE BY THE AFTERNOON AS MORNING PCPN ENDS
AND CLOUD BREAKS DEVELOP. PORTIONS OF ERN PA COULD REMAIN
CLOUDY/STABLE WITH NAM LI PROGS STRONGLY POSITIVE FROM NJ INTO THE
POCONOS. THAT SHOULD KEEP TSTM RISK CONFINED TO WRN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA.
A MID-LVL TROUGH CROSSING SERN CANADA WILL PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT
ACROSS SRN LWR MI INTO WRN NY BY THUR NGT. AN AXIS OF HI PWS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH SFC MID-60S DEWPOINTS
IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. ML CAPE SHOULD REMAIN MODEST GIVEN
WEAK MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND MULTI-LAYER CLOUDS. BELT OF STRONGER
MID-LVL WESTERLIES SHOULD EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR
AND PROMOTE RISK FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS OF BETTER HEATING/CLOUD BREAKS WHERE LLVL LAPSE RATES
WILL STEEPEN. SPC HAS CUT BACK A LITTLE ON THE SLGT RISK CATEGORY
ACROSS THE NW ALLEGHENIES. DRIER AIR SHOULD START TO WORK INTO
NWRN PA LATE THUR NGT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE SFC COLD FRONT
PUSHES SWD TOWARD THE MASON DIXON LINE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE QUESTION FOR FRIDAY BEGINS WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT.
IF IT HAS SWEPT THROUGH THE STATE THE DAY WILL BEGIN DRY WITH
SUNSHINE. SOME MODELS MOVE IT THROUGH SLOWER WITH SOME LINGERING
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. BY AFTERNOON AND EVENING A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES OVER THE MID ATLC REGION. NORTHERN
PA WILL BE COOL AND DRY INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND SEASONABLE
ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE HIGH CENTER SLIPS EAST OFF THE COAST
SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY OVERNIGHT AS REMANTS
FROM TD BILL MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE EXACT TIMING AND TRACK
OF THE STORM AND HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME BUT THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. IF RAINS FROM TD BILL ARE STEADY SPEAD OVER 12 TO
24 HOURS THEN THE RAIN WILL HELP MITIGATE A DROUGHT WATCH OVER
PORTIONS OF PA. BUT IF HEAVY RAINS COME IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME
SUCH AS A FEW HOURS...THEN FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING COULD BE A
CONCERN PARTICULARLY FOR SMALLER STREAMS. MODELS SHOW THE REMNANTS
OF BILL INTERACTING WITH A FRONT ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY AND
MOVING OFF THE COAST MONDAY. HOWEVER THERE APPEARS TO BE DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS ON WHETHER THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION OUT OR HANGS UP
AGAIN ACROSS THE STATE WITH ANOTHER WITH ANOTHER WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTN VISIBLE STLT LOOPS SHOWS MULTI-LAYER CLOUDS CONTINUING TO
OVERSPREAD THE AIRSPACE FROM THE OH VLY. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO REMAIN INVOF JST/AOO AND PERHAPS UNV THRU LATE AFTN AND COULD
EXTEND FURTHER EAST TWD MDT. PCPN IS VERY LGT FALLING OUT OF MID
LVL CLOUD DECK WITH BASES AROUND 10KFT AGL. CONDS SHOULD REMAIN
VFR THIS EVE WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. ALL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING MVFR/IFR/LIFR CIGS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AIRSPACE WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN HIGH LLVL MSTR AND
LGT/SOUTH/EAST LLVL FLOW. LOW CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE INTO
THURS AFTN WITH THE MAIN TSTM RISK CENTERED OVER THE FAR WRN
AIRSPACE IN ZOB SECTOR.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...BCMG VFR.
SAT-MON...VFR/MVFR WITH PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA. LOCALLY +RA PSBL SAT
NGT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...WATSON
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
258 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HOT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SPREADING OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES
WILL RESULT IN WAVY WEATHER FOCUSING BOUNDARIES TO LINGER ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO NEXT WEEK. EXPECT
PERIODS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR IN THIS PATTERN WITH AN
ENHANCED RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF BILL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR LOOPS SHOWS MORE PCPN ALOFT THAN IS ACTUALLY REACHING THE
GROUND WHICH HAS BEEN A LITTLE MISLEADING IF LOOKING AT A
COMPOSITE RADAR. AREA OF HIGHEST DBZ COVERS ONLY THE SWRN 1/3 OF
THE CWA WHERE HIGHEST POPS ARE PAINTED. HRRR AND OTHER MODEL
GUIDANCE WAS TOO SLOW WITH THE EWD MVMT OF PCPN INTO SWRN PA. THIS
IS NOT SURPRISING GIVEN FAST/LOW AMPLITUDE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
CONSISTING OF WEAK SHORTWAVES TRACKING EWD ALONG SRN EDGE OF
WESTERLIES...ALIGNED WITH DEEP MSTR/PWS POOLED ALONG WAVY EAST-
WEST ORIENTED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ESSENTIALLY ALONG THE OH
RIVER.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER INDIANA IS PROGGED TO FOLLOW A
SIMILAR PATH THROUGH SRN OH AND BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF WAA
SHOWERS/ELEVATED CONVECTION TO SOUTH CENTRAL/SERN PA LATER
TONIGHT. MODEL DATA GENERALLY AGREES ON THIS BUT TIMING MAY BE AN
ISSUE. THE HEAVIEST QPF SHOULD STAY TO THE SOUTH AS QPF TENDS TO
BE FCST TO FAR NORTH BY THE MODELS IN THESE TYPES OF FLOW REGIMES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE FCST FOR DAY2/THURS STILL LOOKS SOMEWHAT MESSY WITH LEFTOVER
CLOUDS/PCPN EARLY IN THE DAY AND NEARBY WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PIVOTING ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM SUGGESTS MUCH OF THE CWA WILL
BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE BY THE AFTERNOON AS MORNING PCPN ENDS
AND CLOUD BREAKS DEVELOP. PORTIONS OF ERN PA COULD REMAIN
CLOUDY/STABLE WITH NAM LI PROGS STRONGLY POSITIVE FROM NJ INTO THE
POCONOS. THAT SHOULD KEEP TSTM RISK CONFINED TO WRN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA.
A MID-LVL TROUGH CROSSING SERN CANADA WILL PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT
ACROSS SRN LWR MI INTO WRN NY BY THUR NGT. AN AXIS OF HI PWS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH SFC MID-60S DEWPOINTS
IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. ML CAPE SHOULD REMAIN MODEST GIVEN
WEAK MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND MULTI-LAYER CLOUDS. BELT OF STRONGER
MID-LVL WESTERLIES SHOULD EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR
AND PROMOTE RISK FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS OF BETTER HEATING/CLOUD BREAKS WHERE LLVL LAPSE RATES
WILL STEEPEN. SPC HAS CUT BACK A LITTLE ON THE SLGT RISK CATEGORY
ACROSS THE NW ALLEGHENIES. DRIER AIR SHOULD START TO WORK INTO
NWRN PA LATE THUR NGT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE SFC COLD FRONT
PUSHES SWD TOWARD THE MASON DIXON LINE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECAST LOOKS RATHER GOOD.
MAIN CHANGE WAS TO CUT POPS BACK FOR FRIDAY AFT INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...GIVEN LACK OF SFC CONVERGENCE...TIME OF DAY...AND
THAT FLOW IS MAINLY FROM THE WEST...AND GIVEN A SIMILAR
SITUATION YESTERDAY WITH THE FLOW BEING SIMILAR...HARD TO
SEE MUCH GOING ON AFT FRIDAY MORNING.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
A MID LVL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN CANADA WILL DRIVE
A COLD FRONT THRU THE AREA THUR NGT WHICH SHOULD TEMPORARILY
SUPPRESS THE HIGH PW AXIS SOUTH OF THE PA/MD LINE ON FRIDAY. THE
PATTERN GENERALLY EVOLVES IN A SIMILAR FASHION OVER THE WEEKEND AS
DEEP MSTR /ASSOCD WITH THE REMNANTS OF BILL/ RETURNS AND BRINGS A
LOCALLY HEAVY RAFL THREAT. ANOTHER CANADIAN SHORTWAVE PUSHES A
COLD FRONT THRU THE AREA AND DRIES THINGS OUT AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF WET/DRY PERIODS IS AVG AND
SUBJECT TO CHANGE ESP LATER IN THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTN VISIBLE STLT LOOPS SHOWS MULTI-LAYER CLOUDS CONTINUING TO
OVERSPREAD THE AIRSPACE FROM THE OH VLY. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO REMAIN INVOF JST/AOO AND PERHAPS UNV THRU LATE AFTN AND COULD
EXTEND FURTHER EAST TWD MDT. PCPN IS VERY LGT FALLING OUT OF MID
LVL CLOUD DECK WITH BASES AROUND 10KFT AGL. CONDS SHOULD REMAIN
VFR THIS EVE WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. ALL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING MVFR/IFR/LIFR CIGS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AIRSPACE WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN HIGH LLVL MSTR AND
LGT/SOUTH/EAST LLVL FLOW. LOW CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE INTO
THURS AFTN WITH THE MAIN TSTM RISK CENTERED OVER THE FAR WRN
AIRSPACE IN ZOB SECTOR.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...BCMG VFR.
SAT-MON...VFR/MVFR WITH PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA. LOCALLY +RA PSBL SAT
NGT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
107 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HOT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SPREADING OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES
WILL RESULT IN WAVY WEATHER FOCUSING BOUNDARIES TO LINGER ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO NEXT WEEK. EXPECT
PERIODS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR IN THIS PATTERN WITH AN
ENHANCED RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF BILL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONTINUED TO ADJUST POPS UPWARD ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS INTO
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL MTNS FOR THIS AFTN BASED ON THE LATEST UPSTREAM
RADAR TRENDS. MAY STILL NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH. HRRR AND OTHER MODEL
GUIDANCE ARE TOO SLOW WITH THE EWD MVMT OF LGT/MOD PCPN OVER SW
PA. THIS IS NOT SURPRISING GIVEN SYNOPTIC RING-OF-FIRE TYPE
PATTERN CONSISTING OF WEAK SHORTWAVES TRACKING EWD ALONG SRN EDGE
OF WESTERLIES ALIGNED WITH DEEP MSTR POOLED ALONG WAVY WEST-EAST
ORIENTED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ESSENTIALLY ALONG THE OH
RIVER.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER IL/IN IS PROGGED TO FOLLOW A
SIMILAR PATH THROUGH SRN OH AND BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF MAINLY
STRATIFORM SHOWERS ALONG WITH CHC FOR SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL PA LATER TONIGHT. MODEL DATA GENERALLY AGREES
ON THIS BUT TIMING MAY BE AN ISSUE. THE HEAVIEST QPF SHOULD STAY
TO THE SOUTH FOLLOWING AXIS OF BETTER INSTABILITY INTO SRN MD/VA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE FCST FOR DAY2/THURS STILL LOOKS SOMEWHAT MESSY WITH LEFTOVER
CLOUDS/PCPN EARLY IN THE DAY NEARBY WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PIVOTING ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM SUGGESTS MUCH OF THE CWA WILL
BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE BY THE AFTERNOON AS MORNING PCPN ENDS
AND CLOUD BREAKS DEVELOP. PORTIONS OF ERN PA COULD REMAIN
CLOUDY/STABLE WITH NAM LI PROGS STRONGLY POSITIVE FROM NJ INTO THE
POCONOS. THAT SHOULD KEEP TSTM RISK CONFINED TO WRN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA.
THAT SAID...A MID-LVL TROUGH CROSSING SERN CANADA WILL PUSH A SFC
COLD FRONT ACROSS SRN LWR MI INTO WRN NY BY THUR NGT. AN AXIS OF
HI PWS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH SFC
MID-60S DEWPOINTS IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. ML CAPE SHOULD
REMAIN MODEST GIVEN WEAK MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND MULTI-LAYER
CLOUDS. BELT OF STRONGER MID-LVL WESTERLIES SHOULD EVENTUALLY
OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR AND PROMOTE RISK FOR A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE WIND GUSTS ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF BETTER HEATING/CLOUD
BREAKS WHERE LLVL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN. SPC HAS MAINTAINED A
SLGT RISK CATEGORY ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND NW
ALLEGHENIES. DRIER AIR SHOULD START TO WORK INTO NWRN PA LATE THUR
NGT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES SWD TOWARD
THE MASON DIXON LINE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECAST LOOKS RATHER GOOD.
MAIN CHANGE WAS TO CUT POPS BACK FOR FRIDAY AFT INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...GIVEN LACK OF SFC CONVERGENCE...TIME OF DAY...AND
THAT FLOW IS MAINLY FROM THE WEST...AND GIVEN A SIMILAR
SITUATION YESTERDAY WITH THE FLOW BEING SIMILAR...HARD TO
SEE MUCH GOING ON AFT FRIDAY MORNING.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
A MID LVL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN CANADA WILL DRIVE
A COLD FRONT THRU THE AREA THUR NGT WHICH SHOULD TEMPORARILY
SUPPRESS THE HIGH PW AXIS SOUTH OF THE PA/MD LINE ON FRIDAY. THE
PATTERN GENERALLY EVOLVES IN A SIMILAR FASHION OVER THE WEEKEND AS
DEEP MSTR /ASSOCD WITH THE REMNANTS OF BILL/ RETURNS AND BRINGS A
LOCALLY HEAVY RAFL THREAT. ANOTHER CANADIAN SHORTWAVE PUSHES A
COLD FRONT THRU THE AREA AND DRIES THINGS OUT AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF WET/DRY PERIODS IS AVG AND
SUBJECT TO CHANGE ESP LATER IN THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EARLY AFTN VISIBLE STLT LOOPS SHOWS MULTI-LAYER CLOUDS CONTINUING
TO OVERSPREAD THE AIRSPACE FROM THE OH VLY. RADAR TRENDS STRONGLY
FAVOR SHOWER ACTIVITY REACHING JST/AOO BY 18Z AND COULD EXTEND
FURTHER EAST BY LATER IN THE AFTN. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
12Z TAFS WITH THE 15Z INTERMEDIATE UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR QUICKER
ADVANCEMENT OF LGT PCPN. CONDS SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY VFR WITH
CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. ALL GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING MVFR/IFR/LIFR CIGS ACROSS THE AIRSPACE FROM LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN HIGH LLVL
MSTR AND LGT/EASTERLY LLVL FLOW. LOW CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE
INTO THURS AFTN WITH MAIN TSTM RISK OVER THE WRN AIRSPACE/ZOB
SECTOR.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...VFR.
FRI NGT-SUN...VFR/MVFR WITH PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
951 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
.DISCUSSION...
A BUSY EARLY TO MID EVENING...AS A FEW CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS
BROUGHT SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS TO
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY. THINK ANY MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT IS
DIMINISHING WITH THE SETTING SUN. HOWEVER...THE HRRR /IN
PARTICULAR/ HAS SHOWED THIS SMALL AREA OF STORMS OVER NE HAMBLEN
AND GREENE COUNTIES MAINTAINING ITS STRONG/SEMI-ORGANIZED
CHARACTERISTICS AS IT TRACKS NE ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY...BEFORE
DISSIPATING AFTER 04Z AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. THUS...CANNOT
RULE OUT A LOCALIZED SEVERE STORM THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AS
MENTIONED...THINGS SHOULD QUIET DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE
NAM WANTS TO BRING IN SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NORTHERN PLATEAU/CUMBERLAND MTNS LATE
TONIGHT. GIVEN THE LINGERING BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION TODAY...AND
INCREASING LIFT/MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH TO OUR
WEST...CERTAINLY THINK THIS IS POSSIBLE. THUS...HAVE INCREASED
POPS/CLOUD COVER HERE SLIGHTLY LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE
A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 73 92 74 91 / 20 40 30 40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 72 90 70 88 / 50 40 20 40
OAK RIDGE, TN 72 90 71 86 / 50 40 30 50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 68 88 66 87 / 50 50 30 40
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
AMP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
808 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2015
.UPDATE...
Made a quick update to the forecast to carry higher rain chances
across our far southeastern counties this evening, and to include
a mention of locally heavy rainfall. Scattered, slow moving showers
and thunderstorms are occurring southeast of a Sonora to Brady line.
Outflow boundary emanating from this convection is moving slowly to
the northwest, and some new development is possible along and behind
this outflow boundary. Expect this shower and thunderstorms activity
to dissipate prior to 11 PM tonight.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2015/
AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
VFR conditions currently prevail across the area. There are a few
isolated showers and thunderstorms near KSOA, KJCT, and KBBD, so
will have a mention of VCTS for this activity through the evening
hours. Otherwise, expect MVFR to possibly IFR conditions to
develop after 06Z again tonight, mainly for the four southern
terminals. Just mentioned a SCT020 group for KABI as they will
probably be too far north for low clouds again. Light and
variable or light southerly winds can be expected. 20
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2015/
SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)
Bill remnants well to the northeast, with a weak shear axis draped
from the Hill Country northeast into the center of Bill. Have
continued to see scattered showers and storms across the Hill
Country and these should continue. Both the HRRR and the TTU WRF to
a lesser extent show a little convection developing later this
afternoon across much of the remainder of the area. Will continue
the mention of a few isolated showers and storms for a few hours
this evening. A few storms possible again on Friday afternoon across
the southeast as the shear axis slowly erodes, but rain chances at
most locations will be so small that will not mention in the
forecast. Otherwise, warm and humid air mass in place with surface
dewpoints hanging near 70 in most locations.
LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Thursday)
Upper high pressure will continue to build eastward over the
southwestern states this weekend as an inverted upper trough
expands into south Texas from northern Mexico. There is a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms associated with the Mexican
disturbance over the Interstate 10 corridor Saturday afternoon
and through Saturday night. The presence of the Mexican upper low
will keep a slight chance of rainfall over primarily the southern
portions of the forecast area south of Interstate 20 through
Monday night. As the center of the upper high pressure area moves
east over the southern Plains late Monday the upper inverted
trough will be deflected to our west as will any associated
rainfall. The forecast will therefore remain dry Monday through
Thursday.
Temperatures will remain seasonal with afternoon highs in the
upper 80s to the lower 90s and morning lows around 70.
15
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 71 91 72 91 72 / 10 10 5 5 5
San Angelo 71 90 70 89 70 / 10 10 5 5 10
Junction 70 87 71 87 71 / 40 20 10 20 20
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
649 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2015
.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
VFR conditions currently prevail across the area. There are a few
isolated showers and thunderstorms near KSOA, KJCT, and KBBD, so
will have a mention of VCTS for this activity through the evening
hours. Otherwise, expect MVFR to possibly IFR conditions to
develop after 06Z again tonight, mainly for the four southern
terminals. Just mentioned a SCT020 group for KABI as they will
probably be too far north for low clouds again. Light and
variable or light southerly winds can be expected. 20
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2015/
SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)
Bill remnants well to the northeast, with a weak shear axis draped
from the Hill Country northeast into the center of Bill. Have
continued to see scattered showers and storms across the Hill
Country and these should continue. Both the HRRR and the TTU WRF to
a lesser extent show a little convection developing later this
afternoon across much of the remainder of the area. Will continue
the mention of a few isolated showers and storms for a few hours
this evening. A few storms possible again on Friday afternoon across
the southeast as the shear axis slowly erodes, but rain chances at
most locations will be so small that will not mention in the
forecast. Otherwise, warm and humid air mass in place with surface
dewpoints hanging near 70 in most locations.
LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Thursday)
Upper high pressure will continue to build eastward over the
southwestern states this weekend as an inverted upper trough
expands into south Texas from northern Mexico. There is a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms associated with the Mexican
disturbance over the Interstate 10 corridor Saturday afternoon
and through Saturday night. The presence of the Mexican upper low
will keep a slight chance of rainfall over primarily the southern
portions of the forecast area south of Interstate 20 through
Monday night. As the center of the upper high pressure area moves
east over the southern Plains late Monday the upper inverted
trough will be deflected to our west as will any associated
rainfall. The forecast will therefore remain dry Monday through
Thursday.
Temperatures will remain seasonal with afternoon highs in the
upper 80s to the lower 90s and morning lows around 70.
15
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 71 91 72 91 72 / 10 10 5 5 5
San Angelo 71 90 70 89 70 / 20 10 5 5 10
Junction 70 87 71 87 71 / 20 20 10 20 20
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
223 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2015
.DISCUSSION...
Isolated showers have developed over the area this afternoon on
the backside of Tropical Cyclone Bill which is now about to cross
the Red River into OK. The majority of this activity will stay in
the eastern Permian Basin before diminishing after sunset. As Bill
lifts northeast, an upper ridge will try to build east across the
Southern Plains. Before it does so, our region will remain in weak
northerly mid level flow. If thunderstorms form over the TX
Panhandle or NE NM later this afternoon or Thursday they will move
south and may make it to the area during the overnight hours. Both
the HRRR and WRF-NMM show a complex of showers and storms moving
across eastern NM and W TX overnight. Rain chances diminish Friday
into the weekend as the upper ridge takes hold on the area. Will
need to monitor the strength of the ridge as recent models have
shown a weakness/inverted trough developing over South Texas and
slowly drifting it west. This solution could bring a few showers
and storms back to the area from the east late in the weekend into
next week.
Much warmer conditions are expected tomorrow as mid level
temperatures increase quite a bit. Expect highs to be about 5 to 10
degrees warmer than today. Temperatures will moderate somewhat into
the weekend as easterly flow sets up along with abundant low level
moisture. If we see the inverted trough move across the area early
next week, high temperatures may struggle to get out of the 80s!
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 67 93 68 91 / 20 10 10 10
BIG SPRING TX 68 93 71 92 / 10 10 10 10
CARLSBAD NM 68 97 69 95 / 20 20 20 10
DRYDEN TX 71 94 71 92 / 10 10 10 10
FORT STOCKTON TX 68 92 68 92 / 10 10 10 10
GUADALUPE PASS TX 67 92 66 89 / 20 20 20 10
HOBBS NM 64 91 64 90 / 20 20 10 10
MARFA TX 59 90 58 88 / 10 20 20 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 67 94 69 92 / 20 10 10 10
ODESSA TX 68 93 70 92 / 20 10 10 10
WINK TX 69 97 70 95 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
70/29
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
112 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2015
.DISCUSSION...
Please see the 17/18Z aviation forecast discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
Ceilings have (finally) lifted to VFR across area terminals. We
expect VFR conditions to persist across area terminals through 18/18Z.
Light northeasterly winds will gradually veer overnight to the
southeast and remain under 10 knots. Although area soundings
suggest convective initiation (CI) is imminent, we`re also seeing drier
mid-level air being drawn cyclonically around the western
semicircle of TD "BILL", now approaching the Dallas/Ft. Worth
Metroplex. This dry air should serve to erode moist updrafts and
limit convection to isolated at best through the afternoon hours.
Another round of convection overnight is being hinted by convection-
allowing models, specifically the HRRR (see SPC`s HRRR web browser
at http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/hrrr for a summary of convective-
related HRRR products. The dProg/dt feature is very useful!). Scattered
thunderstorms, most likely sourced off the Raton Mesa, are forecast
by the HRRR, the Texas Tech WRF (located at the following URL:
http://www.atmo.ttu.edu/bancell/real_time_WRF/ttuwrfhome.php), and
to some extent the NSSL WRF (http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/wrf/newsite/)
to translate south across eastern New Mexico overnight, where
favorable conditions exist for sustained elevated convection.
These storms may impact KCNM, KHOB, and KINK a few hours before
sunrise Thursday, with attendant MVFR ceilings/visibilities, gusty
winds, and brief heavy rain. Right now, confidence in timing is
not sufficiently high to include in the TAFs for these terminals;
however, we`ll keep watch on this and adjust the forecasts as
needed.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
70
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1256 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. A WEAK FRONT OVER THE AREA WILL
OSCILLATE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND AND BE THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY INTERACT
WITH MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL TO
BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1005 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
WEAK FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AS DEPICTED BY A RATHER SHARP GRADIENT OF NW TO SE ORIENTED
LOW LEVEL THETA-E OVER THE NORTH/NE ATTM. ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY INCLUDING THE BLUE RIDGE...SEEING QUITE A BIT OF MID
CLOUD CANOPY WITH BREAKS OVER THE FAR WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT
IMPULSE ALOFT MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST. THIS FEATURE THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS MODELS STRING IT EAST JUST NORTH OF THE
REGION LATER ON.
HOWEVER DEGREE OF ORGANIZATION APPEARS KEY TO WHETHER OR NOT MUCH
OF THE AREA SEES JUST SCATTERED COVERAGE AIDED BY OROGRAPHICS/DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING ONCE THE MID DECK ERODES OR DOES A COMPLEX ORGANIZE AND
SLIDE SE ALONG THE FRONT/THETA-E GRADIENT ESPCLY LATER ON. MUCH OF
THE LATEST GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR TEND TO KEEP A MORE CLUSTERED/BANDED
SCENARIO WITH FOCUS EVENTUALLY TRENDING BACK TO ANOTHER UPSTREAM
WAVE IN THE OHIO VALLEY LATER. THINK THIS MAY BE SOMEWHAT OVERDONE
GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR LATER STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG OLD OUTFLOW FROM
THE TAIL OF THE CONVECTION PASSING THROUGH NE KY ATTM...AND SPILL
SE INTO THE WEST WHERE HEATING AND FORECAST/MODIFIED CAPES OF AROUND
2K J/KG APPEAR LIKELY. THIS STILL PUTS THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE
NW/WEST WHERE BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELYS A BIT SOONER BEFORE UNFOLDING
CONVECTION TO THE SE ESPCLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY THIS EVENING
IF SOME SORT OF MCS DOES EVOLVE PER NEW NAM. INCREASING WIND FIELDS
ALOFT PER 30+ KT UNIDIRECTIONAL WESTERLY JET WOULD SUPPORT MORE OF
A SEVERE THREAT THAN IN RECENT DAYS WITH STRONG WINDS THE MAIN
THREAT IF CAN GET ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND DRYING ALOFT TO SUPPORT
HIGHER DCAPES LATER ON.
HIGH TEMPS APPEAR A BIT COOLER TODAY GIVEN CLOUDS AT THE ONSET AND
THE WEAK FRONT OVER PARTS OF THE REGION. HOWEVER WOULD NOT TAKE
MUCH SUN TO PUNCH READINGS BACK INTO THE 90S EAST...AND 80S WEST
SO ONLY TRIMMED HIGHS BACK A CAT OR SO NORTH/NE AND ACTUALLY
RAISED A FEW DEGREES SOUTH OF THE FRONT OVER THE SE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 500 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN TODAY IS FOR POTENTIAL MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...MCS...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE FORECAST
AREA...ESP THE VIRGINIAS...DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL VIRGINIA...WEST THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS FRONT IS POSITIONED ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH WHICH IS ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY WILL SERVE AS A PATH FOR WHICH
ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION WILL FOLLOW.
OUR FORECAST AREA IS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STRONGER
WESTERLIES ALOFT...AND RIGHT ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SURFACE HIGH. THE SURFACE FRONT IS VERY CLOSE TO OUR NORTHERN CWA
BORDER AND IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTH TO ALONG THE I-64
CORRIDOR...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE HWY 460 CORRIDOR BY
THIS EVENING. THIS IS PROBLEMATIC IN THAT IT PUTS US ON THE
RECEIVING END OF ANY ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION THAT MAY MOVE
DOWNSTREAM OR DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
MODELS SUGGEST THE OUTFLOW FROM ONGOING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE FRONT
TODAY...STORMS REDEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON.
CONCERN IS THAT TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS
WILL COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING WHEN CAPE WILL BE AT A MAXIMA.
AS SUCH...THINK STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ARE LIKELY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DAMAGING WINDS. A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK...MAIN THREAT WINDOW 4PM-10PM.
TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE DOWN A FEW DEGREES COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER. IN SPITE OF THE ONE OR TWO
DEGREE REPRIEVE...IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM AND HUMID WITH
NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
WILL START THURSDAY MORNING OFF POTENTIALLY WITH THE REMNANTS OF A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX EXITING OUR AREA TO THE EAST...WHILE WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH WILL BRING WITH IT
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDFLOW WHICH WILL LIMIT AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO ISOLATED/MAYBE WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY...WITH
BETTER CHANCES OVER THE MOUNTAINS. INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE
MODEST...SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY STRONG STORM INTENSITY.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN FOR FRIDAY AS A COLD
FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO POP UP DURING LATE MORNING
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN PULSY FASHION. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE EVENING AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES EAST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER WHILE
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE TOWARD OUR AREA. WITH BETTER
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...MAY SEE STORMS SOLIDIFY INTO A LINE AS THEY
PASS THROUGH OUR AREA...AND DESPITE THE LACK OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STORMS BECOME SEVERE.
THE MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY WILL PUSH EAST OF OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...LEAVING ONLY LINGERING SHOWER INTO DAWN SATURDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT BACKDOORS ITS WAY IN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
WINDFLOW WILL NOT TAKE LONG TO SHIFT SOUTHERLY AGAIN ACROSS OUR AREA
AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL GET CAUGHT UP IN THE
WESTERLY FLOW AND SWING SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...
ALTHOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DIFFERENCE IN WHERE THE
REMNANTS WILL TRACK. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CARRIED QUICKLY EAST THROUGH
THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS THE PLUME OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH 2.0+ INCH PWATS ENCOUNTERS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER COMPARED TO
EARLIER IN THE WEEK AND CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK...RANGING FROM THE MID 80S WEST TO THE LOW/MID 90S
EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
CONVECTION LOOKS TO BECOME MORE DIURNAL WITH A TRAILING TROUGH AXIS
CROSSING THE REGION SUNDAY AND AHEAD OF A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM COOL
FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON. WEAKNESS OF BOTH FEATURES SUGGEST MAINLY LOW
END CHANCE POPS WITH THE FRONT POSSIBLY DROPPING THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW THE FRONT TUESDAY PERHAPS
BRINGING A BIT DRIER AIR BUT AT LEAST STILL THE NEED FOR SLIGHT TO
CHANCE POPS WITH POTENTIAL FOR AN IMPULSE TO DROP IN FROM THE NW
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OTRW CONTINUED PERSISTENCE WITH HIGHS 80S WEST
AND LOW/MID 90S EAST...EXCEPT A FEW DEGREES COOLER PER CLOUDS/SHRA
SATURDAY...AND AGAIN BEHIND THE WEAK BOUNDARY ON TUESDAY...BUT
LIKELY HOTTER SUNDAY WITH SINKING MOTION/DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE
BILL REMNANT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
EARLY MID DECK CONTINUING TO FADE TO MORE OF A SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CU FIELD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN OLD
UPSTREAM OUTFLOW BAND APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. INCREASING
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD LEAD TO MORE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON WITH ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF
STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE FOR PERIODS OF MVFR TO
IFR ESPCLY ACROSS THE VA/WEST VA LOCATIONS WHERE WILL CARRY EITHER
A PREVAILING SHRA OR TEMPO GROUP FOR SHOWERS AND STRONGER STORMS
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. STORMS MAY TEND TO ORGANIZE AND SPILL
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
MUCH OF THIS AFFECTING THE KBCB-KROA-KLYH CORRIDOR. SINCE ALREADY
RUNNING WITH PREVAILING MVFR IN TSRA WILL KEEP MENTION ESPCLY
SINCE CHANCES OF SEEING A BAND OR CLUSTER OF STORMS IMPACT THESE
SITES APPEARS HIGHER. EXPECT LESS OF A CHANCE AT KDAN BUT STILL
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A VCTS GIVEN LIKELY SE TRAJECTORY OF TSRA LATER
ON. OTRW WILL KEEP VFR TO INIT MOST SPOTS BEFORE TRENDING DOWN
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE
STORMS WOULD BE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS BUT ALSO IFR VSBYS IN THE
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.
COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY LINGER WITH ANOTHER POSSIBLY ARRIVING ACROSS
THE NORTH THIS EVENING...MAINLY AFFECTING KROA/KLYH PER LATEST
MODELS. OTHERWISE THINKING WILL SEE CONVECTION FADE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING WITH SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND AND PERHAPS A PERIOD OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WHERE HEAVIER EARLIER RAINFALL OCCURRED.
WAVE PASSES ON THURSDAY WITH MUCH OF THE REGION IN BETWEEN LIFT
SOURCES AND UNDER A DECENT WESTERLY FLOW THAT SHOULD LIMIT
CONVECTION TO THE MAINLY THE FAR WEST AND PERHAPS BLUE RIDGE LATE.
THUS RUNNING WITH OVERALL VFR IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU FIELDS
AFTER ANY EARLY FOG/STRATUS FADES WITH WEST WINDS AT 10-20 KTS.
NEXT IMPULSE ARRIVES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE BILL
REMNANTS WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR IN AT LEAST WIDELY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATION WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE
THE MAIN FOCUS OF WEATHER THRU THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH REMNANTS OF
BILL THAT SHOULD GET CAUGHT INTO THE UPPER FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS COULD RESULT IN MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS. WEAK TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY WITH CONVECTION
BECOMING MORE ISOLATED DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTRW OVERALL
VFR INTO MONDAY WITH ADDED ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE WITH YET
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT LINGERING OVER THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR EXCEPT THE TYPICAL FOG FORMATION AT LWB/BCB
AND AT TIMES LYH THROUGH THE WEEK EARLY MORNING TIME FRAME.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 200 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
RECORD HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY JUNE 17TH...
STATION RECORD HIGHS/YEAR
ROANOKE 96/1944
LYNCHBURG 96/1944
DANVILLE 99/1981
BLACKSBURG 88/1994
BLUEFIELD 86/2007
LEWISBURG 88/2014
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH/PM
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...JH/NF
AVIATION...JH/PM
CLIMATE...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1024 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. A WEAK FRONT OVER THE AREA WILL
OSCILLATE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND AND BE THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY INTERACT
WITH MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL TO
BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1005 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
WEAK FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AS DEPICTED BY A RATHER SHARP GRADIENT OF NW TO SE ORIENTED
LOW LEVEL THETA-E OVER THE NORTH/NE ATTM. ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY INCLUDING THE BLUE RIDGE...SEEING QUITE A BIT OF MID
CLOUD CANOPY WITH BREAKS OVER THE FAR WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT
IMPULSE ALOFT MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST. THIS FEATURE THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS MODELS STRING IT EAST JUST NORTH OF THE
REGION LATER ON.
HOWEVER DEGREE OF ORGANIZATION APPEARS KEY TO WHETHER OR NOT MUCH
OF THE AREA SEES JUST SCATTERED COVERAGE AIDED BY OROGRAPHICS/DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING ONCE THE MID DECK ERODES OR DOES A COMPLEX ORGANIZE AND
SLIDE SE ALONG THE FRONT/THETA-E GRADIENT ESPCLY LATER ON. MUCH OF
THE LATEST GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR TEND TO KEEP A MORE CLUSTERED/BANDED
SCENARIO WITH FOCUS EVENTUALLY TRENDING BACK TO ANOTHER UPSTREAM
WAVE IN THE OHIO VALLEY LATER. THINK THIS MAY BE SOMEWHAT OVERDONE
GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR LATER STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG OLD OUTFLOW FROM
THE TAIL OF THE CONVECTION PASSING THROUGH NE KY ATTM...AND SPILL
SE INTO THE WEST WHERE HEATING AND FORECAST/MODIFIED CAPES OF AROUND
2K J/KG APPEAR LIKELY. THIS STILL PUTS THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE
NW/WEST WHERE BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELYS A BIT SOONER BEFORE UNFOLDING
CONVECTION TO THE SE ESPCLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY THIS EVENING
IF SOME SORT OF MCS DOES EVOLVE PER NEW NAM. INCREASING WIND FIELDS
ALOFT PER 30+ KT UNIDIRECTIONAL WESTERLY JET WOULD SUPPORT MORE OF
A SEVERE THREAT THAN IN RECENT DAYS WITH STRONG WINDS THE MAIN
THREAT IF CAN GET ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND DRYING ALOFT TO SUPPORT
HIGHER DCAPES LATER ON.
HIGH TEMPS APPEAR A BIT COOLER TODAY GIVEN CLOUDS AT THE ONSET AND
THE WEAK FRONT OVER PARTS OF THE REGION. HOWEVER WOULD NOT TAKE
MUCH SUN TO PUNCH READINGS BACK INTO THE 90S EAST...AND 80S WEST
SO ONLY TRIMMED HIGHS BACK A CAT OR SO NORTH/NE AND ACTUALLY
RAISED A FEW DEGREES SOUTH OF THE FRONT OVER THE SE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 500 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN TODAY IS FOR POTENTIAL MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...MCS...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE FORECAST
AREA...ESP THE VIRGINIAS...DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL VIRGINIA...WEST THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS FRONT IS POSITIONED ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH WHICH IS ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY WILL SERVE AS A PATH FOR WHICH
ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION WILL FOLLOW.
OUR FORECAST AREA IS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STRONGER
WESTERLIES ALOFT...AND RIGHT ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SURFACE HIGH. THE SURFACE FRONT IS VERY CLOSE TO OUR NORTHERN CWA
BORDER AND IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTH TO ALONG THE I-64
CORRIDOR...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE HWY 460 CORRIDOR BY
THIS EVENING. THIS IS PROBLEMATIC IN THAT IT PUTS US ON THE
RECEIVING END OF ANY ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION THAT MAY MOVE
DOWNSTREAM OR DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
MODELS SUGGEST THE OUTFLOW FROM ONGOING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE FRONT
TODAY...STORMS REDEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON.
CONCERN IS THAT TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS
WILL COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING WHEN CAPE WILL BE AT A MAXIMA.
AS SUCH...THINK STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ARE LIKELY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DAMAGING WINDS. A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK...MAIN THREAT WINDOW 4PM-10PM.
TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE DOWN A FEW DEGREES COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER. IN SPITE OF THE ONE OR TWO
DEGREE REPRIEVE...IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM AND HUMID WITH
NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
WILL START THURSDAY MORNING OFF POTENTIALLY WITH THE REMNANTS OF A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX EXITING OUR AREA TO THE EAST...WHILE WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH WILL BRING WITH IT
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDFLOW WHICH WILL LIMIT AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO ISOLATED/MAYBE WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY...WITH
BETTER CHANCES OVER THE MOUNTAINS. INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE
MODEST...SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY STRONG STORM INTENSITY.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN FOR FRIDAY AS A COLD
FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO POP UP DURING LATE MORNING
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN PULSY FASHION. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE EVENING AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES EAST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER WHILE
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE TOWARD OUR AREA. WITH BETTER
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...MAY SEE STORMS SOLIDIFY INTO A LINE AS THEY
PASS THROUGH OUR AREA...AND DESPITE THE LACK OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STORMS BECOME SEVERE.
THE MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY WILL PUSH EAST OF OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...LEAVING ONLY LINGERING SHOWER INTO DAWN SATURDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT BACKDOORS ITS WAY IN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
WINDFLOW WILL NOT TAKE LONG TO SHIFT SOUTHERLY AGAIN ACROSS OUR AREA
AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL GET CAUGHT UP IN THE
WESTERLY FLOW AND SWING SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...
ALTHOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DIFFERENCE IN WHERE THE
REMNANTS WILL TRACK. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CARRIED QUICKLY EAST THROUGH
THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS THE PLUME OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH 2.0+ INCH PWATS ENCOUNTERS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER COMPARED TO
EARLIER IN THE WEEK AND CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK...RANGING FROM THE MID 80S WEST TO THE LOW/MID 90S
EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
CONVECTION LOOKS TO BECOME MORE DIURNAL WITH A TRAILING TROUGH AXIS
CROSSING THE REGION SUNDAY AND AHEAD OF A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM COOL
FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON. WEAKNESS OF BOTH FEATURES SUGGEST MAINLY LOW
END CHANCE POPS WITH THE FRONT POSSIBLY DROPPING THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW THE FRONT TUESDAY PERHAPS
BRINGING A BIT DRIER AIR BUT AT LEAST STILL THE NEED FOR SLIGHT TO
CHANCE POPS WITH POTENTIAL FOR AN IMPULSE TO DROP IN FROM THE NW
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OTRW CONTINUED PERSISTENCE WITH HIGHS 80S WEST
AND LOW/MID 90S EAST...EXCEPT A FEW DEGREES COOLER PER CLOUDS/SHRA
SATURDAY...AND AGAIN BEHIND THE WEAK BOUNDARY ON TUESDAY...BUT
LIKELY HOTTER SUNDAY WITH SINKING MOTION/DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE
BILL REMNANT.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 820 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
SEEING MOSTLY MID DECK ACROSS THE REGION TO INIT THIS MORNING WITH
AREAS OF MVFR STRATO-CU OVER THE NW WHERE EXPECT LOWER CIGS TO
PERSIST UNTIL BETTER HEATING CAUSES CLOUDS TO MIX OUT A BIT. THIS
ALONG WITH EROSION OF THE GOING MID DECK SHOULD ALLOW A
TRANSFORMATION TO MORE OF A VFR CU FIELD BEFORE ADDED CONVECTION
DEVELOPS. ONLY EXCEPTION COULD BE OVER NE SECTIONS AROUND KLYH
WHERE THE RESIDUAL FRONT MAY CAUSE CLOUDS TO LINGER LONGER.
OTHERWISE...WILL BE WATCHING UPSTREAM THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY. WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL STEER THIS ACTIVITY
INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATER IN THE DAY. CURRENT THINKING
IS FOR AN MCS OR CLUSTERS OF STORMS TO MOVE/DEVELOP ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS SOMETIME BETWEEN 20 UTC/4PM AND 02Z/10 PM THIS EVENING.
MODELS SEEM TO CONCUR...ALTHOUGH RECENT SOLUTIONS HAVE BACKED UP
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE FARTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER IF THINGS ORGANIZE MORE
THEN DENSITY MAY CAUSE A COMPLEX TO SINK FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE
VIRGINIAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON PER EARLIER GUIDANCE.
THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE MCS WOULD BE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATION WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE
THE MAIN FOCUS OF WEATHER THRU THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH REMNANTS OF
BILL THAT SHOULD GET CAUGHT INTO THE UPPER FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS COULD RESULT IN MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR EXCEPT THE TYPICAL FOG FORMATION AT LWB/BCB
AND AT TIMES LYH THROUGH THE WEEK EARLY MORNING TIME FRAME.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 200 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
RECORD HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY JUNE 17TH...
STATION RECORD HIGHS/YEAR
ROANOKE 96/1944
LYNCHBURG 96/1944
DANVILLE 99/1981
BLACKSBURG 88/1994
BLUEFIELD 86/2007
LEWISBURG 88/2014
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH/PM
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...JH/NF
AVIATION...JH/PM
CLIMATE...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1054 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER EAST-CENTRAL WI EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAVE EXITED THE
LAKESHORE REGION...AND PARTIAL CLEARING EXISTS BEHIND THE LOW AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH IS MOVING SOUTH OVER NORTHERN WI.
WEAK RETURNS ARE SHOWING UP ON RADAR ALONG THE FRONT...AND ONE OB AT
HAYWARD DID REGISTER A SPRINKLE. WILL CARRY AN ISOLATED SHOWER
MENTION WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH 00Z. BEHIND THE FRONT...CHILLY
NORTH WINDS ARE CAUSING TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 50S AND 60S.
FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE A LINGERING SHOWER THREAT INTO THE
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY TEMPS.
TONIGHT...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EAST-CENTRAL WI DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE HIGHER RES MODELS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP CONVERGENCE OVER CENTRAL WI LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING WHERE AN ISOLATED SHOWER COULD FORM. AS A
RESULT...KEPT A MENTION IN THE FORECAST THROUGH 02Z. THEREAFTER...A
CLEARING SKY AND A COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN SOME CHILLY
TEMPS OVER FAR N-C WISCONSIN. LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S ARE A
POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW HOURS LATE IN THE COLD SPOTS...BUT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION FOR THE
MORNING THEN MOVE TO THE EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN SOME MID-
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA
IN THE AFTERNOON...SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY. COMFORTABLE HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
PCPN TRENDS...AND SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY...ARE THE
MAIN FCST CONCERNS.
HAVE SLOWED DOWN PCPN PROGRESSION A LITTLE BIT ON FRIDAY. WAA WILL
BE INCREASING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WSTRN CWA...BUT A LINGERING
DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS SHOULD HOLD BACK SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. WILL
JUST CARRY A CHANCE OVER OUR FAR NW COUNTIES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
ANY ONGOING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX (DEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A S/W TROF...RRQ OF UPPER JET AND WAA) IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES INTO NC/C WI SATURDAY MORNING...AND MAY NOT EVEN MAKE IT
INTO EAST CENTRAL WI BEFORE 18Z. LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL INHIBIT HEATING...LEADING TO ONLY MARGINAL
INSTABILITY...WITH CAPES AROUND 500-1000 J/KG. SO...DESPITE
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DOUBT CONCERNING
THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SVR TSTMS ON SATURDAY. MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THE BETTER POTENTIAL WILL BE FOCUSED OVER SW WI...CLOSER TO
THE STRONGER INSTABILITY. WILL BACK OFF A BIT ON THE SVR WORDING
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. A CHANCE OF STORMS WILL LINGER
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
EXPECT A MAINLY DRY DAY ON SUNDAY...DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A
WEAK SFC BOUNDARY. 850 MB FLOW IS WESTERLY...SO ANY LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY SHALLOW.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...AS A S/W TROF AND JET STREAK MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
POPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED A BIT DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT
WOULD LIKE TO SEE A FEW MORE MODELS RUNS...AND ESPECIALLY A
LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT ON TIMING.
EXPECT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT..AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION DURING THE WED-THU
PERIOD...BRINGING A CHANCE OF TSTMS. THE GFS SHOWS THE BEST
POTENTIAL...WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO THE REGION WED
NGT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE MAIN BRUNT OF THE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO STRAY TOO FAR FROM NORMAL
DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER EXPECTED FROM LATE TNGT THRU FRI NGT AS
AN AREA OF HI PRES MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. DO EXPECT TO SEE
MID/HI CLOUDS STREAM OVERHEAD DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM BILL PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
OUR NEXT SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL WITH MAINLY MODEST...SLOWLY VEERING WINDS (UNDER 10 KTS).
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......AK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
625 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER EAST-CENTRAL WI EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAVE EXITED THE
LAKESHORE REGION...AND PARTIAL CLEARING EXISTS BEHIND THE LOW AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH IS MOVING SOUTH OVER NORTHERN WI.
WEAK RETURNS ARE SHOWING UP ON RADAR ALONG THE FRONT...AND ONE OB AT
HAYWARD DID REGISTER A SPRINKLE. WILL CARRY AN ISOLATED SHOWER
MENTION WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH 00Z. BEHIND THE FRONT...CHILLY
NORTH WINDS ARE CAUSING TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 50S AND 60S.
FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE A LINGERING SHOWER THREAT INTO THE
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY TEMPS.
TONIGHT...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EAST-CENTRAL WI DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE HIGHER RES MODELS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP CONVERGENCE OVER CENTRAL WI LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING WHERE AN ISOLATED SHOWER COULD FORM. AS A
RESULT...KEPT A MENTION IN THE FORECAST THROUGH 02Z. THEREAFTER...A
CLEARING SKY AND A COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN SOME CHILLY
TEMPS OVER FAR N-C WISCONSIN. LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S ARE A
POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW HOURS LATE IN THE COLD SPOTS...BUT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION FOR THE
MORNING THEN MOVE TO THE EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN SOME MID-
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA
IN THE AFTERNOON...SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY. COMFORTABLE HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
PCPN TRENDS...AND SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY...ARE THE
MAIN FCST CONCERNS.
HAVE SLOWED DOWN PCPN PROGRESSION A LITTLE BIT ON FRIDAY. WAA WILL
BE INCREASING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WSTRN CWA...BUT A LINGERING
DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS SHOULD HOLD BACK SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. WILL
JUST CARRY A CHANCE OVER OUR FAR NW COUNTIES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
ANY ONGOING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX (DEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A S/W TROF...RRQ OF UPPER JET AND WAA) IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES INTO NC/C WI SATURDAY MORNING...AND MAY NOT EVEN MAKE IT
INTO EAST CENTRAL WI BEFORE 18Z. LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL INHIBIT HEATING...LEADING TO ONLY MARGINAL
INSTABILITY...WITH CAPES AROUND 500-1000 J/KG. SO...DESPITE
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DOUBT CONCERNING
THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SVR TSTMS ON SATURDAY. MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THE BETTER POTENTIAL WILL BE FOCUSED OVER SW WI...CLOSER TO
THE STRONGER INSTABILITY. WILL BACK OFF A BIT ON THE SVR WORDING
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. A CHANCE OF STORMS WILL LINGER
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
EXPECT A MAINLY DRY DAY ON SUNDAY...DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A
WEAK SFC BOUNDARY. 850 MB FLOW IS WESTERLY...SO ANY LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY SHALLOW.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...AS A S/W TROF AND JET STREAK MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
POPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED A BIT DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT
WOULD LIKE TO SEE A FEW MORE MODELS RUNS...AND ESPECIALLY A
LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT ON TIMING.
EXPECT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT..AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION DURING THE WED-THU
PERIOD...BRINGING A CHANCE OF TSTMS. THE GFS SHOWS THE BEST
POTENTIAL...WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO THE REGION WED
NGT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE MAIN BRUNT OF THE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO STRAY TOO FAR FROM NORMAL
DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
LINGERING VFR CU FIELD OVER CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI WL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES. SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THE OVRNGT HOURS AS HI PRES
STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. HI CLOUDS ARE FCST TO GRADUALLY
OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON FRIDAY FROM SHWRS/TSTMS FIRING WELL TO OUR
WEST OVER THE NRN PLAINS. VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU THE DAY
ON FRI WITH ONLY MODEST E-SE WINDS VEERING S-SE BY LATE FRI
AFTERNOON.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......AK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
324 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
CONVECTION HAS BEEN DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO
CENTRAL IOWA ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY AND AHEAD OF WEAK
SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THIS ACTIVITY HAS FORMED IN
AN AXIS OF ABOUT 1000 J/KG OF ML CAPE WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40
TO 45 KNOTS. THE 17.18Z RAP SUGGESTS THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
VERY SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND THAT
THE CAPE AXIS WILL ESSENTIALLY REMAIN IN PLACE. THE RAP ALSO
INDICATES THE BEST SHEAR IS OCCURRING RIGHT NOW AND THIS SHOULD
THEN DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON TO 35 KNOTS OR LESS IN THE 0-6 KM
LAYER ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 AND 25 KNOTS OR LESS OVER
THE ENTIRE AREA IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER. MOST OF THE HI-RES MESO
MODELS SHOW A TREND OF CONTINUED EXPANSION OF THE STORMS THROUGH
ABOUT 21Z OR 22Z AND THEN SHOW A DIMINISHING TREND AS THE SHEAR
DROPS OFF. THE RAP CONTINUES TO SHOW A VERY TALL AND SKINNY CAPE
PROFILE IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR KRST SO BELIEVE LOCAL
DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WITH AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT ONE OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME
SUB SEVERE HAIL OR WIND GUSTS. THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH
HELPING THIS ACTIVITY WAS COMING ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA AND WILL
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. THE RAP ALSO
CONTINUES TO SHOW ONLY WEAK FORCING FROM THIS WAVE WHICH SHOULD
HELP TO KEEP THE CONVECTION MORE ON THE SCATTERED SIDE. PLAN TO
START THE EARLY EVENING WITH AROUND A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OVER THE
NORTHWEST AHEAD OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY AND THEN QUICKLY TREND
THIS DOWN TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE EVENING
AS THE CAPE DIMINISHES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OUT OF CANADA THURSDAY AND DRIFT
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS HIGH WILL
PROVIDE A SHORT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN ZONAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO COME ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THE 17.12Z NAM AND GFS INDICATE THIS WAVE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME WEAK PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB
LAYER. THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE SLOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD INDICATED SO HAVE LIMITED THE RAIN CHANCES
TO THE 20 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH THE WEAK PV ADVECTION SHOULD MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING WEAK TO POSSIBLY SOME
MODERATE FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 1000-700 MB LAYER AND THEN WEAK
ABOVE THAT UP TO 500 MB. THE ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE ON THE 305K
SURFACE AHEAD OF THE WAVE LOOKS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 3
UBAR/S. FOR NOW WILL STAY WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH 50 TO 60
PERCENT RAIN CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH IN THIS SOLUTION GIVEN THE LACK PV ADVECTION AND THE NEUTRAL
TO SLIGHTLY POSITIVE TILT TO THE WAVE. AFTER THAT...THE ZONAL FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS COMING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOME RAIN
CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES CENTERED ON MONDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
MVFR CEILINGS NEAR KRST HAVE BEEN BREAKING UP OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...BUT STILL A POSSIBILITY THEY WILL SHOW UP FOR A BRIEF
TIME EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BEYOND THIS CONCERN...ATTENTION
FOCUSED ON CONVECTIVE CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT THE
AIRFIELDS. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS TSRA DEVELOPING FROM KMKT TO
KFBL. SHORT TERM MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL EXPAND INTO
SEVERAL CLUSTERS AND TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP AT KRST TO ATTEMPT TO PIN DOWN THE MOST
LIKELY TIMEFRAME. CONVECTION MAY WEAKEN BEFORE IT GETS TO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WILL MONITOR TRENDS AND ADJUST FORECAST AS
NECESSARY. EXPECT CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS MODELS MOVE RH OUT FAIRLY
QUICKLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. NAM THE ONLY MODEL TO HOLD ONTO
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE UNDER AN INVERSION AND SUGGESTS FOG/MIST.
HAVE DISCOUNTED THIS FOR NOW BUT ALSO BEARS WATCHING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...MW
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW LOW
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
LOW ARE PUMPING IN DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S INTO WESTERN WI AND
SOUTHEAST MN WHERE ML CAPES ARE SURPASSING 1200 J/KG. ANTICIPATE
THAT STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FIRE AHEAD OF THE LOW AND TRANSLATE NE
ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WI LATER THIS AFTERNOON
OR EARLY THIS WEEKEND. FORECAST CONCERNS THEREFORE INCLUDE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND IMPACTS IN THE SHORT-TERM.
TONIGHT...THE LOW PRESSURE OVER MINNESOTA WILL TRAVEL EAST OVER
CENTRAL WI INTO NORTHEAST WI BY 12Z THU. THE SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE LOW WILL KEEP MOST OF ITS IMPACTS WEST OF THE
REGION UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING. THE FOCUS FOR THE EVENING WILL
RESIDE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NE FROM THE LOW INTO THE
WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY IMPACT AREAS NORTH OF A WAUSAU TO IRON
MOUNTAIN LINE THROUGH THE EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...CONCERNED THAT
SOME STORMS WILL MAKE A RUN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN BEFORE DIURNAL
INSTABILITY IS LOST. IF THIS OCCURS...STORMS MAY STILL CONTAIN GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL GIVEN THE DECENT WIND FIELDS ALOFT. WILL KEEP A
MENTION IN THE HWO. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM PROJECT AMPLE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL LINGER AHEAD OF THE LOW TO SUSTAIN
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. BUT WEAK FORCING SHOULD LEAD TO A DIURNAL
COMPONENT THAT WILL KEEP STORM INTENSITY IN CHECK. A MORE HUMID
NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTH.
THURSDAY...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OR STORMS SHOULD EXIT WITH THE LOW
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE BEHIND
THE LOW THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN CLOUDS WILL BUILD AHEAD OF A SECONDARY
FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHER RESOLUTION
MODELS ARE DEVELOPING SPOTTY SHOWERS ALONG THIS FRONT...BUT CANNOT
FIND HARDLY ANY CONVERGENCE ALONG IT. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
EXCEPT FOR FAR N-C WISCONSIN. HIGHS RISING TO AROUND 70 NORTH TO
THE UPPER 70S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN US THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTING UP SHOP SOUTH OF THE
AREA. THIS WILL BRING A FEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
THE AREA...ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS
WILL BE TIMING THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES.
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLIDES EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
COULD ALLOW FOR SOME FROST TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WI AS
TEMPS FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.
THE DRY WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END EITHER VERY LATE FRIDAY OR
MORE LIKELY ON SATURDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
APPROACH THE AREA. ONGOING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY MAKE A RUN AT
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING...BUT MODELS HAVE
SLOWED THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THIS ACTIVITY...WHICH WOULD LEAD
TO A ANOTHER ROUND DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
CAN DEVELOP. IF WE CAN CLEAR OUT FOR A PERIOD...SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES INCREASE WITH COLD FRONT/SHORTWAVE APPROACHING...DECENT
SHEAR (0-6KM BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 35-50 KTS)...PROVIDING FOR A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. SPC FOCUSES THE DAY 4 OUTLOOK MAINLY FROM
CENTRAL WI SOUTHWESTWARD WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY IS MOST LIKELY
TO RESIDE...BUT IF THE SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN AND THE BETTER
INSTABILITY (DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60 AND CAPE APPROACHING
2000 J/KG) CAN DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH/EAST THE THREAT AREA COULD BE
EXPANDED MORE INTO NE WI. WILL SLOW DOWN THE ONSET OF POPS FRIDAY
EVENING/NIGHT...KEEPING ONLY CHANCE POPS OVER FAR NORTHERN
WI...AND KEEP LIKELY POPS ON SATURDAY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. THE
REMNANTS OF BILL WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER PWATS ARE
FORECAST TO CLIMB BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0 INCHES ON SATURDAY...WHICH
WILL BRING A HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING THREAT.
ANY SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE AREA DURING SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL OUT FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE AREA...ACROSS IOWA...ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...
THAT WE SHOULD SNEAK OUT A DRY DAY ON SUNDAY. LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND MAYBE SOME STORMS EXIST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS MODELS SHOW WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING IN THE
ZONAL/WEST UPPER FLOW. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA THOUGH...CLOSER TO THE HUNG UP
BOUNDARY. MODELS DO SHOW THE BOUNDARY STARTING TO APPROACH THE
AREA LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. IF THIS OCCURS...MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN...WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER FAR
NORTH-CENTRAL WI INTO THE EVENING...WHICH SHOULD MOSTLY PASS BY
RHINELANDER TO THE NORTH. THEN WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS. CEILINGS WILL DROP INTO MVFR WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE
JUST AHEAD AND ALSO BEHIND THE LOW LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU.
CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE RATHER QUICKLY THU MORNING.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......BERSCH
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
641 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2015
UPDATED THIS EVENINGS FORECAST AND 00Z AVIATION FORECAST PACKAGE.
HAD ONE STRONG TSTORM WHICH DEVELOPED WEST OF WHEATLAND AND
DISSIPATED JUST WEST OF CHUGWATER. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY OTHER
ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...BUT KEPT POP NEAR 20 PERCENT EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA SINCE THERE MAY
BE SOME OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THAT STORM. OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE
A MOSTLY CLEAR AND QUIET NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2015
A RELENTLESS PERIOD OF SEVERE WEATHER FINALLY APPEARS TO BE COMING
TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS CONTRIBUTING
TO STRONG CAPPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS...AND ANY LARGER SCALE
FORCING MECHANISMS ARE LIMITED. RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
YESTERDAYS CONVECTION...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACROSS LARAMIE COUNTY
FROM MORNING STRATUS...AND WEAK LLVL UPSLOPE WILL BE THE FOCI FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR SHOWS ONE OR TWO STORMS
ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE AFTER 20Z...BUT THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS HAVE
SHOWN VIRTUALLY NO DEVELOPMENT OR EASTWARD PROGRESS. WILL MAINTAIN
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER OVER THE PLAINS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
THAT ANYWHERE EAST OF I25 WILL SEE MUCH. IF STORMS DEVELOP...THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS IS VERY MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 55-65 F
RANGE. MUCAPES OF 2500-3500 J/KG COMBINED WITH AVERAGE 0-6 KM SHEAR
VALUES AROUND 30 KTS WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...SO DO NOT SEE A GOOD
REASON TO REMOVE SEVERE WORDING. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...NOCTURNAL
SOUTHERLY LLVL/H85 JET WILL CRANK UP OVER WESTERN NEB. CANNOT RULE
OUT AN ELEVATED STORM LATE...BUT THINK THIS FEATURE WILL BE FEEDING
AN MCS WELL TO THE NORTH OVER WESTERN SD. IT WILL BE BREEZY TONIGHT
ALONG THE PINE RIDGE IN DAWES/SIOUX COUNTIES.
A TOASTY AFTERNOON FOR FRIDAY WITH THE GFS/NAM/ECM/GEM ALL SHOWING
H7 TEMPS AROUND 17-18 DEG C AND 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES AROUND
585 DM OVER THE PLAINS. DESPITE LLVL CONVERGENCE ALONG A STRONG SFC
TROUGH/DRYLINE ALONG THE WYO/NEB BORDER...WARM AIR ALOFT AND LARGER
SCALE RIDGING WILL SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION. SUBSIDENCE SHOULD SUPPORT
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS WELL. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH AFTERNOON CUMULUS
WE SEE...NEAR RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE WITH UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 F
OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. IN ADDITION...THIS IS A GREAT PATTERN
FOR NIGHTLY MCS COMPLEXES OVER NORTHEAST WY AND WESTERN SD...SO WE
CANNOT RULE OUT NIGHT TIME OR EARLY AM CONVECTION ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHERN ZONES...MOVING IN FROM NEIGHBORING CWAS. OTHERWISE WE CAN
ENJOY A PLEASANT...ALBEIT WARM AFTERNOON/EVENING FREE OF ANY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. COOLER ON SAT WITH A COLD FROPA...ALONG
WITH A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THE DAY 3 OUTLOOK
FROM SPC HAS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA IN A MRGNL RISK...WHICH SEEMS
APPROPRIATE WITH THE NAM SHOWING STRONG INSTABILITY AND GOOD SHEAR
BENEATH 50 KT FLOW AT H5. COULD SEE THE RISK CATEGORY BEING BUMPED
UP IN THE FUTURE DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF FORCING/CAPPING. KEPT
POPS ISOLATED FOR NOW...BUT EXPECT A REVISION UPWARDS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2015
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE IS HOW
MUCH CAP WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK.
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS SHOWING DRIER AIR STARTING TO PUSH
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING THAT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH WEAK TROFS MOVING
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL RESULT IN A MORE ZONAL PATTERN
OVER OUR REGION THROUGH THE WEEK.
SATURDAY NIGHT: THIS TIMEFRAME APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN
AS A STRONG (90-100KT) JET AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
WYOMING. THIS JET WILL PROVIDE STRONG WINDS ALOFT. IN
ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO EAST-
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL RESULT IN ADVECTION OF
DEEPER MOISTURE WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40 TO 50KTS.
ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD GENERALLY TRACK
WEST TO EAST AT AROUND 15 TO 20KTS WITH RIGHT MOVING SUPERCELLS
TRACKING SOUTHEAST AT 15KTS. WE ARE A BIT WORRIED THAT THIS
CONVECTION MAY TRY TO SLOW DOWN LATE SATURDAY EVENING AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET INCREASES TO AROUND 30 TO 35 KTS WHICH MAY YIELD TO
BACKBUILDING STORMS AND POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL.
SUNDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT: THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IS
BUILDING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIGHTLY OVER OUR REGION. THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT SOME GOOD CAPPING OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL RESULT
IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED CONVECTION. THIS SHOULD ALSO
ALLOW FOR SOILS TO DRY OUT. CANNOT RULE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION
ON TUESDAY AS THE CAP BEGINS TO WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO WEAK
POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY:
THE GFS SHOWS A POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY PUSHING THROUGH
NORTHERN MONTANA AND SOUTHERN CANADA ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THIS WAVE BUT SHOWS MORE RIDGING
BUILDING OVER INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...AND PROVIDES MORE TROFFING OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EITHER WAY...THIS MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO A WEAKER CAP ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2015
LONE THUNDERSTORM THAT BROKE THE MIDLEVEL CAP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
IN FINAL STAGES OF DISSIPATION TO THE NORTHEAST OF CHEYENNE...SO
WILL LIKELY TAKE OUT VCTS MENTION FOR CHEYENNE HERE SHORTLY
BARRING ANY LATE DEVELOPMENT ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. HRRR DID A
FAIRLY GOOD JOB DEPICTING THIS ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT SHOWED CONVECTION DYING QUICKLY IN THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS...AS IT IS. OTHERWISE...NAM/HRRR HAVE MOISTURE
RETURN IN DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW COMING UPSLOPE ACROSS THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT AND KEPT A PERIOD OF PREVAILING MVFR CEILINGS
IN FOR SIDNEY...ALLIANCE...SCOTTSBLUFF AND CHADRON DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THAT SHOULD MIX OUT OR START LIFTING AFTER
DAYBREAK...AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON GIVEN MIDLEVEL CAP REMAINING STRONG ON
NORTH SIDE OF MIDLEVEL RIDGE...SO NO MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THE
TAFS FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AT THIS STAGE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2015
VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL FALL TO
BETWEEN 10 AND 20 PERCENT...WITH WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 25 MPH
ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND SATURDAY...POSSIBLY SEVERE. WINDS COULD BE
GUSTY AND ERRATIC NEAR CONVECTION.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TJT/JG
SHORT TERM...REC
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...CLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CHEYENNE WY
626 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2015
.UPDATE...FOR EARLY EVENING AVIATION FORECAST PACKAGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2015
A RELENTLESS PERIOD OF SEVERE WEATHER FINALLY APPEARS TO BE COMING
TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS CONTRIBUTING
TO STRONG CAPPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS...AND ANY LARGER SCALE
FORCING MECHANISMS ARE LIMITED. RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
YESTERDAYS CONVECTION...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACROSS LARAMIE COUNTY
FROM MORNING STRATUS...AND WEAK LLVL UPSLOPE WILL BE THE FOCI FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR SHOWS ONE OR TWO STORMS
ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE AFTER 20Z...BUT THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS HAVE
SHOWN VIRTUALLY NO DEVELOPMENT OR EASTWARD PROGRESS. WILL MAINTAIN
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER OVER THE PLAINS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
THAT ANYWHERE EAST OF I25 WILL SEE MUCH. IF STORMS DEVELOP...THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS IS VERY MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 55-65 F
RANGE. MUCAPES OF 2500-3500 J/KG COMBINED WITH AVERAGE 0-6 KM SHEAR
VALUES AROUND 30 KTS WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...SO DO NOT SEE A GOOD
REASON TO REMOVE SEVERE WORDING. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...NOCTURNAL
SOUTHERLY LLVL/H85 JET WILL CRANK UP OVER WESTERN NEB. CANNOT RULE
OUT AN ELEVATED STORM LATE...BUT THINK THIS FEATURE WILL BE FEEDING
AN MCS WELL TO THE NORTH OVER WESTERN SD. IT WILL BE BREEZY TONIGHT
ALONG THE PINE RIDGE IN DAWES/SIOUX COUNTIES.
A TOASTY AFTERNOON FOR FRIDAY WITH THE GFS/NAM/ECM/GEM ALL SHOWING
H7 TEMPS AROUND 17-18 DEG C AND 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES AROUND
585 DM OVER THE PLAINS. DESPITE LLVL CONVERGENCE ALONG A STRONG SFC
TROUGH/DRYLINE ALONG THE WYO/NEB BORDER...WARM AIR ALOFT AND LARGER
SCALE RIDGING WILL SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION. SUBSIDENCE SHOULD SUPPORT
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS WELL. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH AFTERNOON CUMULUS
WE SEE...NEAR RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE WITH UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 F
OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. IN ADDITION...THIS IS A GREAT PATTERN
FOR NIGHTLY MCS COMPLEXES OVER NORTHEAST WY AND WESTERN SD...SO WE
CANNOT RULE OUT NIGHT TIME OR EARLY AM CONVECTION ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHERN ZONES...MOVING IN FROM NEIGHBORING CWAS. OTHERWISE WE CAN
ENJOY A PLEASANT...ALBEIT WARM AFTERNOON/EVENING FREE OF ANY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. COOLER ON SAT WITH A COLD FROPA...ALONG
WITH A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THE DAY 3 OUTLOOK
FROM SPC HAS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA IN A MRGNL RISK...WHICH SEEMS
APPROPRIATE WITH THE NAM SHOWING STRONG INSTABILITY AND GOOD SHEAR
BENEATH 50 KT FLOW AT H5. COULD SEE THE RISK CATEGORY BEING BUMPED
UP IN THE FUTURE DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF FORCING/CAPPING. KEPT
POPS ISOLATED FOR NOW...BUT EXPECT A REVISION UPWARDS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2015
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE IS HOW
MUCH CAP WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK.
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS SHOWING DRIER AIR STARTING TO PUSH
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING THAT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH WEAK TROFS MOVING
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL RESULT IN A MORE ZONAL PATTERN
OVER OUR REGION THROUGH THE WEEK.
SATURDAY NIGHT: THIS TIMEFRAME APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN
AS A STRONG (90-100KT) JET AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
WYOMING. THIS JET WILL PROVIDE STRONG WINDS ALOFT. IN
ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO EAST-
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL RESULT IN ADVECTION OF
DEEPER MOISTURE WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40 TO 50KTS.
ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD GENERALLY TRACK
WEST TO EAST AT AROUND 15 TO 20KTS WITH RIGHT MOVING SUPERCELLS
TRACKING SOUTHEAST AT 15KTS. WE ARE A BIT WORRIED THAT THIS
CONVECTION MAY TRY TO SLOW DOWN LATE SATURDAY EVENING AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET INCREASES TO AROUND 30 TO 35 KTS WHICH MAY YIELD TO
BACKBUILDING STORMS AND POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL.
SUNDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT: THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IS
BUILDING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIGHTLY OVER OUR REGION. THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT SOME GOOD CAPPING OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL RESULT
IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED CONVECTION. THIS SHOULD ALSO
ALLOW FOR SOILS TO DRY OUT. CANNOT RULE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION
ON TUESDAY AS THE CAP BEGINS TO WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO WEAK
POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY:
THE GFS SHOWS A POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY PUSHING THROUGH
NORTHERN MONTANA AND SOUTHERN CANADA ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THIS WAVE BUT SHOWS MORE RIDGING
BUILDING OVER INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...AND PROVIDES MORE TROFFING OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EITHER WAY...THIS MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO A WEAKER CAP ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2015
LONE THUNDERSTORM THAT BROKE THE MIDLEVEL CAP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
IN FINAL STAGES OF DISSIPATION TO THE NORTHEAST OF CHEYENNE...SO
WILL LIKELY TAKE OUT VCTS MENTION FOR CHEYENNE HERE SHORTLY
BARRING ANY LATE DEVELOPMENT ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. HRRR DID A
FAIRLY GOOD JOB DEPICTING THIS ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT SHOWED CONVECTION DYING QUICKLY IN THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS...AS IT IS. OTHERWISE...NAM/HRRR HAVE MOISTURE
RETURN IN DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW COMING UPSLOPE ACROSS THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT AND KEPT A PERIOD OF PREVAILING MVFR CEILINGS
IN FOR SIDNEY...ALLIANCE...SCOTTSBLUFF AND CHADRON DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THAT SHOULD MIX OUT OR START LIFTING AFTER
DAYBREAK...AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON GIVEN MIDLEVEL CAP REMAINING STRONG ON
NORTH SIDE OF MIDLEVEL RIDGE...SO NO MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THE
TAFS FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AT THIS STAGE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2015
VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL FALL TO
BETWEEN 10 AND 20 PERCENT...WITH WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 25 MPH
ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND SATURDAY...POSSIBLY SEVERE. WINDS COULD BE
GUSTY AND ERRATIC NEAR CONVECTION.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...REC
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...CLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
400 AM MDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT FRI JUN 19 2015
ZONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER CO GETS FLATTENED AS ENERGY ENTERING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TRANSLATES ACROSS WY AND MT LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. LEE TROF STRENGTHS ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND MIXING
OUT SFC DEW POINTS. QUESTION WILL BE...BY HOW MUCH. EARLY MORNING
RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE QUITE DRY WITH AFTERNOON DEW POINTS DROPPING
INTO THE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...WITH 20S ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS. GFS AND RAP13 AGREE...BUT NAM12...AND NMM AND ARW
KEEP DEW POINTS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS. GIVEN
ALL THE RAINFALL LATELY...HAVE SIDED WITH THESE MOISTER RUNS...WHICH
LEANS FORECAST TOWARDS THE SLIGHTLY COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE VALUES.
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO A DEGREE OR
TWO WARMER.
ALL MODELS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED
TODAY...AND WITH DRIER AIR SPREADING INTO THE MOUNTAIN AREAS...THIS
LOOKS REASONABLE. RETAINED GENERALLY ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...THOUGH SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS AND NRN RATON MESA
REGION MAY SEE SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE...SO HAVE SCATTERED POPS
DOWN THAT WAY. CAPES LOOK FAIRLY LIMITED ACROSS THE MTS/I-25
CORRIDOR REGION. ONE AREA TO WATCH WILL BE FAR EASTERN PLAINS WHERE
HIGHER DEW POINTS ALONG AND EAST OF A DRY LINE COULD RESULT IN CAPE
VALUES OF AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE PRETTY WEAK
THOUGH WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY...SO IF STORMS CAN FIRE
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...THEY SHOULD BE PULSE IN NATURE...WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS WELL...BUT THIS THREAT SHOULD
BE HIGHLY LOCALIZED. OTHERWISE...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES. -KT
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT FRI JUN 19 2015
...HOT AND DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE ONGOING TREND FOR THE LONG TERM. AN UPPER RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE DESERT SW OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN
SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE REGION AND INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
U.S. BY TUE. THIS WILL KEEP HOT AND PREDOMINANTLY DRY CONDITIONS IN
PLACE FOR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUE...WITH MAX TEMPS EACH DAY IN
THE 90S TO NEAR 100F FOR THE PLAINS...AND 80S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.
ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION...MAINLY HIGH BASED...IS EXPECTED EACH
DAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF A WETTING RAIN
BUT A BETTER CHANCE FOR GUSTY WINDS. BEGINNING LATE TUE EVE...BOTH
THE GFS AND EC MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF A
MONSOON-LIKE TAP OF MOISTURE DEVELOPING...GIVING THE CWA A BETTER
SHOT AT SOME PCPN. MOORE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT FRI JUN 19 2015
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS WILL SEE LOCAL IFR/LIFR
CIGS/VIS DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...WHICH
COULD AFFECT THE KCOS TAF SITE. BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE
TRENDS...WILL CARRY THIS IN A TEMPO GROUP THROUGH 13Z. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY FOR THE TAF SITES WITH WITH SPEEDS UNDER
15 KTS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS TODAY AND BE SPOTTIER IN COVERAGE THAN THE PAST FEW
DAYS. WILL NOT INCLUDE VCTS IN THE TAFS SINCE THESE ARE NOT LIKELY
TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1131 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 908 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2015
UPDATED TO END SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH 310 FOR BACA COUNTY. KEPT
ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS AND PLAINS THROUGH MIDNIGHT
WITH ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS
AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN FRONT RANGE ATTM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2015
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVED THRU MUCH OF THE SERN PLAINS TODAY AND
IS SITTING OVR THE SE CORNER OF THE STATE. BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY...DEW POINTS ARE MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPR 50S...AND
WARMING HAS BEEN SLOWED. CONVECTION HAS BEEN VERY LIMITED SO FAR
THIS AFTERNOON... WITH JUST SOME ISOLD STORMS OVR THE SRN MTNS.
SPC MESO ANALYSIS INDICATES CAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG OVR A
GOOD SHARE OF THE SERN PLAINS...NOT INCLUDING LAS ANIMAS COUNTY.
0-6KM SHEAR VALUES ARE ABOUT 40 KTS NR THE KS BORDER. WITH THE
BOUNDARY SITTING OVR THE SERN CORNER OF THE STATE...IT WL SERVE AS
FOCUS FOR TSTMS DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS AREA WL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS AND THUS A SEVERE TSTM WATCH WL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR BACA COUNTY. THE HRRR SHOWS THE BEST CHANCES FOR TSTMS
OVR THE SERN CORNER INTO EARLY EVENING AND THEN MOVING SOUTH OF
THE BORDER. IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS...THE HRRR
ALSO SHOWS TSTMS ALONG THE ERN MTNS WORKING THEIR WAY EASTWARD.
VERY LITTLE CHANCE FOR PCPN IS EXPECTED OVR WRN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.
ON FRI A WEAK UPR RIDGE WL BE OVR THE AREA...WITH CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO BE A BIT DRIER. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION SHOULD BE ISOLD
AND MAINLY CONFINED TO OVR AND NR THE MTNS AND MAYBE ACRS THE SRN
BORDER AREA IN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY. H7 TEMPS ACRS THE FORECAST AREA
FRI AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM ABOUT 17C-20C. AFTERNOON
HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 90S ACRS THE SERN PLAINS AND IN THE 80S OVR
THE HIGH VALLEYS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2015
...HOT AND DRY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY...
LOOKS LIKE A STABLE SUMMER PATTERN IS HERE TO STAY. A STRONG H5 HIGH
WILL BUILD OVER SRN CA THIS WEEKEND AND THEN DRIFT SLOWLY EWD OVER
NRN NM EARLY NEXT WEEK. H7 TEMPS WILL CLIMB FROM AROUND 16 DEG C
EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO 20 DEGREES OR MORE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. DURING THIS TIME...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF CONVECTION WITH VERY DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE SW. CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME LOCAL BUILD-UPS OVR THE MTS...AND MAYBE SOME VIRGA...BUT
MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL BE TOUGH TO COME BY. SO...HAVE DROPPED POPS
BELOW MENTIONABLE THRESHOLDS...MAINTAINING ONLY SINGLE DIGIT POPS
ON A DIURNAL BASIS OVER THE MTS. MOS TEMPS REMAIN AT 100 DEGREES OR
HIGHER FOR THE PLAINS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP TEMPS
OVER THE LOWER ARKANSAS JUST BELOW 100 SINCE SURFACE DEWS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY HIGH AND THIS MAY CUT THE HIGH END OFF JUST A BIT. BUT IT
WILL BE HOT. HOT AND DRY.
BY WED AND BEYOND...SOME DIFFERENCES BETWN THE GFS AND ECMWF AS THE
FORMER REBUILDS THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE DESERT SW WHILE THE LATTER
BREAKS THINGS DOWN A BIT MORE. BOTH MODELS BRING IN A BIT MORE
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...WHICH SHOULD BRING BACK DIURNAL
SHOWERS/STORMS AND HOLD HIGH TEMPS DOWN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS.
ENSEMBLE BASED TEMPS AND POPS LOOK REASONABLE IN THE EXTENDED...AS WE
SLOWLY HEAD TOWARD MORE OF A MID-SUMMER REGIME WITH THE MONSOON RIGHT
AROUND THE CORNER. ROSE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT COS...PUB AND ALS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG AT COS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH DEW PTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S AT THIS TIME. WARMER AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS
THE STATE. THIS WILL LEAD TO MUCH MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WHICH LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...MW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
527 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...AS WET
AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...A LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SLIDE
SOUTHWARD AS THE COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE ADIRONDACK
PARK. LATEST TRENDS IN THE NCEP MODEL SUITE ALONG WITH THE HOURLY
RAP/HRRR...CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SOMEWHAT SLOWER EXIT OF THIS
FRONT AS WE WILL NEED TO RETAIN SOME POPS THROUGH THE MORNING FOR
LOCATIONS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF I90 THEN THROUGH THE I84 CORRIDOR
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. IN FACT...MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER AND A PASSING SHOWER. TRENDS IN THE HRRR REFLECTIVITY
FORECASTS ALSO SUGGEST THIS SLIGHT CHANCE POSSIBILITY ALONG WITH
SHORT TERM ENSEMBLES. OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH WILL BE BUILDING
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO THE ADIRONDACK
STATE PARK THROUGH THE DAY AS H850 TEMPS SETTLE BACK INTO THE
MID-UPR SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE DACKS/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION TO
AROUND 10C ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I90 CORRIDOR. THIS WOULD SUGGEST
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE NORTH AND INTO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREENS TO AROUND 80F FOR THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT. LOW LEVEL DRY
ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A DROP IN DEWPOINTS AS WE FALL FROM THE
60S THIS EARLY MORNING TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH...50S FOR
MOST THE REGION BUT HANGING AROUND 60F FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT WHERE THE AFOREMENTIONED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION WITH DIMINISHING WINDS THAT BECOME LIGHT TO CALM...AS
THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVERHEARD. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE FOR
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO ONCE AGAIN BECOME SOUTHERLY WITH MOISTURE ADVECTING BACK
NORTHWARD. AS THE CANADIAN AIR MASS SETTLES SOUTHWARD FOR MOST OF
THE REGION...H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +7C TO +10C RANGE. IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE
CWFA WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE U40S TO M50S FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION/MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST...AND MAINLY 40-45F
NORTH OF ALBANY WITH A FEW U30S OVER THE SRN DACKS.
SATURDAY...THE LAST FULL DAY OF SPRING WILL BE A NICE START TO
THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC HIGH MOVING EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...INCREASING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT OVER THE
OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE REMNANT CIRCULATION FROM
BILL WILL ALSO APPROACH THE OH RIVER VALLEY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
POP UP LATE IN THE DAY MAINLY TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF ALBANY.
OTHERWISE FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
AREA WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND M60S TO U60S OVER THE MTNS.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WARM FRONT ADVANCES NORTHWARD WITH
THICKENING CLOUD COVERAGE ALONG WITH INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR
SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AS PWATS CLIMB TO BETWEEN
1.50-2.00 INCHES ALONG WITH NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.
MEANWHILE...REMNANTS OF BILL ARE PROGGED TO TRACK ALONG OR SOUTH
OF I80 WITH THE NAM THE FURTHEST NORTH WITH ITS TRACK THROUGH
SUNDAY. AS PER THE LATEST SWODY3...ALL OF OUR REGION IS WITHIN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS /5%/. A CLOSER EXAMINATION
OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE WELL
INTO THE 60S...SBCAPES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1K-2K J/KG MAINLY ACROSS
OUR EASTERN NY COUNTIES. HOWEVER...WITH PWATS EXPECTED TO BE 2-3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND MARGINAL SHEAR PROFILES OF
25-30KTS...SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH WET MICROBUST
POTENTIAL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
SUNDAY NIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF BILL...UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE AND WEAK
SURFACE REFLECTION WILL TRANSVERSE THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP THE
THREAT FOR MORE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS /ESPECIALLY
DURING THE EVENING HOURS/. OVERALL COVERAGE DOES DIMINISH WITH THE
COMBINATION OF THE LOSS WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME SUBSIDENCE
IN THE WAKE OF BILL. WE WILL LOWER POPS TO CHC-SCT ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY INTO
NW CT. IT WILL BE RATHER WARM AND MUGGY WITH MAINLY 60S FOR BOTH
TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD STILL LOOKS RATHER ACTIVE AS A FAIRLY
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET REMAINS PERCHED JUST TO THE NORTH
OF A STRONG RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST...AND MUCH
COOLER AIR OVER EASTERN CANADA.
A SERIES OF MCS AND PERHAPS A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE WILL
PROPAGATE UNDERNEATH THE JET (RIDGE ROLLERS). TIMING THOUGH CHALLENGING
WAS SURPRISINGLY PRETTY CONSISTENT AMONGST THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF AND CANADIAN LONG
RANGE METEOROLOGICAL MODELS.
MONDAY ACTUALLY LOOKS DRY WITH A BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM CANADA TO BRING A DRY WARM DAY TO OUR PARTS. THEN...ON TUESDAY
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MIGHT TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE ECMWF WAS MOST ROBUST WITH THIS FEATURE AND WPC
LEANED WITH THIS SOLUTION.
THAT SYSTEM IS GONE BY WEDNESDAY...AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO
KEEP IT DRY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT A MCS IS FORECAST TO MOVE
MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION...BUT IT MIGHT CLIP MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN
AREAS. FOR NOW WENT SLIGHT CHANCES EVERYWHERE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY STARTS OUT DRY BUT BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS OUR REGION.
THE 00Z GFS IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM.
EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS LIKE YET ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS OR PERHAPS
EVEN A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN MAINLY FOR FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES START OUT WARM FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S...LOCALLY MID 80S
IN THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER 80S SOUTH AND LOWER 80S WELL NORTH
OF ALBANY. AFTER THAT...TEMPERATURES LOOK SLIGHTLY BELOW FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE 70S...TO NEAR
80 SOUTH...MOST DAYS WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60.
PRECIPITATION LOOK TO CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CIGS HAVE BEEN MAINLY IFR EARLY THIS MORNING (LOW IFR AT KPOU AND
KPSF)...OCCASIONALLY LIFTING TO LOW MVFR.
A COLD FRONT WAS IN THE PROCESS OF CROSSING THE TERMINALS...AND
SHOULD CLEAR KGFL WITHIN THE HOUR...NOT CLEARING KPOU UNTIL AFTER
12Z.
SHOWERS WERE WIDELY SCATTERED WITH THIS COLD FRONT...BUT AGAIN THE
BIGGER IMPACT HAS BEEN LOW STRATUS. WE STILL BELIEVE THIS STRATUS
WILL LIFT AFTER 12Z.
THE SURFACE WIND WHICH HAS BEEN MAINLY SOUTHERLY...WILL CONTINUE
TO DO SO THROUGH ABOUT 12Z...THEN SHIFT TO THE W/NW AND THEN
EVENTUALLY NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AFTER THE MORNING PEAK.
THE WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10KTS...GUSTING UP TO 20KTS BY MIDDAY
AT KPSF AND KALB.
CLOUDS WILL LIFT BACK TO VFR AFTER 12Z...THEN EVENTUALLY BECOME
SCATTERED (EXCEPT AT KPOU WHERE A BKN CIG IS LIKELY MUCH OF THE
DAY BUT AGAIN AT 4500 KFT).
BY THIS EVENING...EXPECT A CLEAR SKY UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY AND
LIGHT WIND. THERE MIGHT BE SOME PATCHY FOG FORMING OVERNIGHT AND
WE WILL ADDRESS THAT POSSIBILITY MORE IN THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY
SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...A
BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY ITS
PASSAGE. THIS FRONT MAY SLOW AS IT APPROACHES THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY WHERE THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ALONG WITH
SOME WEAK WIND CONVERGENCE INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY TO SUPPORT A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE
ADVECTING INTO THE MOST OF OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS WHERE
MIN RH VALUES DROP TO BETWEEN 35 AND 45 PERCENT...WITH NEAR 50
PERCENT SOUTH OF I90. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING TO A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION THROUGH THE DAY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS.
DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE
REGION. LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS EXPECTED AS RH VALUES
CLIMB TO BETWEEN 65 AND 85 PERCENT.
MOISTURE RETURNS THIS WEEKEND WITH INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY EXHIBIT AN INCREASE OF WITHIN
BANK FLOWS THIS WEEKEND AS THE COMBINATION OF HIGHER MOISTURE
CONTENT AND THE REMNANTS OF BILL PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
LOCAL REGION.
PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1.50-2.00 INCHES THIS
WEEKEND WHICH IS 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND ANY
CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. AT THE PRESENT
TIME...QPF FROM THE VAST ARRAY OF GUIDANCE SUGGEST BASIN AVERAGES
WOULD BE AROUND 1 INCH.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
427 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...AS WET
AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...A LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SLIDE
SOUTHWARD AS THE COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE ADIRONDACK
PARK. LATEST TRENDS IN THE NCEP MODEL SUITE ALONG WITH THE HOURLY
RAP/HRRR...CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SOMEWHAT SLOWER EXIT OF THIS
FRONT AS WE WILL NEED TO RETAIN SOME POPS THROUGH THE MORNING FOR
LOCATIONS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF I90 THEN THROUGH THE I84 CORRIDOR
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. IN FACT...MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER AND A PASSING SHOWER. TRENDS IN THE HRRR REFLECTIVITY
FORECASTS ALSO SUGGEST THIS SLIGHT CHANCE POSSIBILITY ALONG WITH
SHORT TERM ENSEMBLES. OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH WILL BE BUILDING
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO THE ADIRONDACK
STATE PARK THROUGH THE DAY AS H850 TEMPS SETTLE BACK INTO THE
MID-UPR SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE DACKS/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION TO
AROUND 10C ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I90 CORRIDOR. THIS WOULD SUGGEST
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE NORTH AND INTO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREENS TO AROUND 80F FOR THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT. LOW LEVEL DRY
ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A DROP IN DEWPOINTS AS WE FALL FROM THE
60S THIS EARLY MORNING TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH...50S FOR
MOST THE REGION BUT HANGING AROUND 60F FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT WHERE THE AFOREMENTIONED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION WITH DIMINISHING WINDS THAT BECOME LIGHT TO CALM...AS
THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVERHEARD. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE FOR
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO ONCE AGAIN BECOME SOUTHERLY WITH MOISTURE ADVECTING BACK
NORTHWARD. AS THE CANADIAN AIR MASS SETTLES SOUTHWARD FOR MOST OF
THE REGION...H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +7C TO +10C RANGE. IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE
CWFA WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE U40S TO M50S FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION/MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST...AND MAINLY 40-45F
NORTH OF ALBANY WITH A FEW U30S OVER THE SRN DACKS.
SATURDAY...THE LAST FULL DAY OF SPRING WILL BE A NICE START TO
THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC HIGH MOVING EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...INCREASING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT OVER THE
OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE REMNANT CIRCULATION FROM
BILL WILL ALSO APPROACH THE OH RIVER VALLEY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
POP UP LATE IN THE DAY MAINLY TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF ALBANY.
OTHERWISE FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
AREA WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND M60S TO U60S OVER THE MTNS.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WARM FRONT ADVANCES NORTHWARD WITH
THICKENING CLOUD COVERAGE ALONG WITH INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR
SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AS PWATS CLIMB TO BETWEEN
1.50-2.00 INCHES ALONG WITH NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.
MEANWHILE...REMNANTS OF BILL ARE PROGGED TO TRACK ALONG OR SOUTH
OF I80 WITH THE NAM THE FURTHEST NORTH WITH ITS TRACK THROUGH
SUNDAY. AS PER THE LATEST SWODY3...ALL OF OUR REGION IS WITHIN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS /5%/. A CLOSER EXAMINATION
OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE WELL
INTO THE 60S...SBCAPES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1K-2K J/KG MAINLY ACROSS
OUR EASTERN NY COUNTIES. HOWEVER...WITH PWATS EXPECTED TO BE 2-3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND MARGINAL SHEAR PROFILES OF
25-30KTS...SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH WET MICROBUST
POTENTIAL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
SUNDAY NIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF BILL...UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE AND WEAK
SURFACE REFLECTION WILL TRANSVERSE THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP THE
THREAT FOR MORE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS /ESPECIALLY
DURING THE EVENING HOURS/. OVERALL COVERAGE DOES DIMINISH WITH THE
COMBINATION OF THE LOSS WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME SUBSIDENCE
IN THE WAKE OF BILL. WE WILL LOWER POPS TO CHC-SCT ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY INTO
NW CT. IT WILL BE RATHER WARM AND MUGGY WITH MAINLY 60S FOR BOTH
TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD STILL LOOKS RATHER ACTIVE AS A FAIRLY
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET REMAINS PERCHED JUST TO THE NORTH
OF A STRONG RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST...AND MUCH
COOLER AIR OVER EASTERN CANADA.
A SERIES OF MCS AND PERHAPS A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE WILL
PROPAGATE UNDERNEATH THE JET (RIDGE ROLLERS). TIMING THOUGH CHALLENGING
WAS SURPRISINGLY PRETTY CONSISTENT AMONGST THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF AND CANADIAN LONG
RANGE METEOROLOGICAL MODELS.
MONDAY ACTUALLY LOOKS DRY WITH A BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM CANADA TO BRING A DRY WARM DAY TO OUR PARTS. THEN...ON TUESDAY
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MIGHT TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE ECMWF WAS MOST ROBUST WITH THIS FEATURE AND WPC
LEANED WITH THIS SOLUTION.
THAT SYSTEM IS GONE BY WEDNESDAY...AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO
KEEP IT DRY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT A MCS IS FORECAST TO MOVE
MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION...BUT IT MIGHT CLIP MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN
AREAS. FOR NOW WENT SLIGHT CHANCES EVERYWHERE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY STARTS OUT DRY BUT BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS OUR REGION.
THE 00Z GFS IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM.
EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS LIKE YET ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS OR PERHAPS
EVEN A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN MAINLY FOR FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES START OUT WARM FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S...LOCALLY MID 80S
IN THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER 80S SOUTH AND LOWER 80S WELL NORTH
OF ALBANY. AFTER THAT...TEMPERATURES LOOK SLIGHTLY BELOW FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE 70S...TO NEAR
80 SOUTH...MOST DAYS WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60.
PRECIPITATION LOOK TO CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z...THEN VFR THEREAFTER.
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS.
RADARS INDICATED A LITTLE MORE ACTIVITY REGARDING SCATTERED
SHOWERS WORKING INTO THE TAF SITES. THERE WAS AN EARLIER LIGHTNING
STRIKE OR TWO ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF KGFL. AS OF
540Z...THERE HAD BEEN NONE IN THE BETTER PART OF AN HOUR.
EXPECT OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS TONIGHT DUE BUT PREVAILING LOW MVFR
(EXTRA FUEL REQUIRED) THROUGH THE MORNING PEAK AT ALL THE TAF
SITES. VISIBILITY WILL BE MAINLY VFR BUT OCCASIONAL DOWN TO MVFR
IN SHOWERS AND MIST.
THE WIND WHICH HAS BEEN MAINLY SOUTHERLY...WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO
THROUGH ABOUT 10Z...THEN SHIFT TO THE W/NW AND THEN EVENTUALLY
NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AFTER THE MORNING PEAK. THEY WILL
AVERAGE AROUND 10KTS...GUSTING UP TO 20KTS BY MIDDAY AT KPSF AND
KALB.
CLOUDS WILL LIFT BACK TO VFR AFTER 12Z...THEN EVENTUALLY BECOME
SCATTERED (EXCEPT AT KPOU WHERE A BKN CIG IS LIKELY MUCH OF THE
DAY BUT AGAIN AT 4500 KFT).
BY THIS EVENING...EXPECT A CLEAR SKY UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY AND
LIGHT WIND. THERE MIGHT BE SOME PATCHY FOG FORMING OVERNIGHT AND
WE WILL ADDRESS THAT POSSIBILITY MORE IN THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...A
BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY ITS
PASSAGE. THIS FRONT MAY SLOW AS IT APPROACHES THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY WHERE THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ALONG WITH
SOME WEAK WIND CONVERGENCE INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY TO SUPPORT A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE
ADVECTING INTO THE MOST OF OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS WHERE
MIN RH VALUES DROP TO BETWEEN 35 AND 45 PERCENT...WITH NEAR 50
PERCENT SOUTH OF I90. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING TO A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION THROUGH THE DAY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS.
DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE
REGION. LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS EXPECTED AS RH VALUES
CLIMB TO BETWEEN 65 AND 85 PERCENT.
MOISTURE RETURNS THIS WEEKEND WITH INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY EXHIBIT AN INCREASE OF WITHIN
BANK FLOWS THIS WEEKEND AS THE COMBINATION OF HIGHER MOISTURE
CONTENT AND THE REMNANTS OF BILL PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
LOCAL REGION.
PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1.50-2.00 INCHES THIS
WEEKEND WHICH IS 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND ANY
CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. AT THE PRESENT
TIME...QPF FROM THE VAST ARRAY OF GUIDANCE SUGGEST BASIN AVERAGES
WOULD BE AROUND 1 INCH.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
342 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND MAY
TRIGGER AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY AND COOLER WEATHER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT SWEEPING FROM THE N AND THE REMNANTS OF TS BILL
MOVING IN FROM THE S WILL MAKE FOR A POTENTIALLY WET SUNDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF WET-WEATHER IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY PRIOR
TO COOLER AND DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WARMER AND
WET CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO THE AREA BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WIDELY SCT SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO SNE FROM THE WEST ASSOCD WITH
WEAK INSTABILITY BURST. NOTING SOME TSTMS S OF LI AND GIVEN SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM EARLY THIS
MORNING.
A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AFTER DAYBREAK AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL BE MOVING S ACROSS SNE THIS MORNING. AS THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO PT-MOSUNNY SKIES FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS
PERSISTING THE LONGEST ALONG THE S COAST. COLD FRONT APPEARS TO
GET HUNG UP NEAR THE SOUTH COAST 18-21Z BEFORE MOVING S OF NEW ENG
BY 00Z. MODELS DO GENERATE MARGINAL SFC INSTABILITY NEAR THE
FRONT WITH SBCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG WITHIN LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE
AXIS SO POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTM THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS RI AND SE MA. TIMING OF DRIER
AIR AND FALLING DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S WILL BE CRITICAL TO THE
INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT. IF THE DRIER AIR IS
DELAYED AND DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 60S INTO THE AFTERNOON THERE
WILL BE A GREATER CHANCE OF CONVECTION BUT IF THESE LOWER
DEWPOINTS MOVE IN QUICKER THIS WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE TSTM
DEVELOPMENT. MODELS ALL GENERATE SOME CONVECTIVE PRECIP IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND HRRR IS TARGETING RI AND SE MA
SO WE HAVE CHC POPS FOCUSED ACROSS NE CT...RI AND SE MA. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE AROUND 40-50 KT SO ANY CONVECTION
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. CANT RULE OUT A STRONG TSTM BUT
THINK MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS.
850 MB TEMPS 12-14C AND WITH DEVELOPING SUNSHINE AND NW WINDS IT
WILL BE A WARM DAY WITH HIGHS REACHING LOW TO MID 80S...EXCEPT 70S
ALONG THE COAST AND OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN WESTERN AND N MA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
A LINGERING SHOWER IS POSSIBLE EARLY EVENING ALONG THE S COAST
WITH THE FRONT...OTHERWISE COOLER AND DRIER POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS
OVERSPREADS THE REGION AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. CLEARING SKIES
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES BUT CLOUDS MAY LINGER DURING THE
NIGHT ALONG THE S COAST WHERE SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. MINS
MOSTLY IN THE 50S BUT SOME 40S POSSIBLE IN NORTH CENTRAL AND W MA.
SATURDAY...
HIGH PRES IN CONTROL AS IT MOVES E OF NEW ENG. EXPECT INCREASING
AFTERNOON CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY W NEW ENG. NAM APPEARS TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH RETUNING MOISTURE AND SHOWERS SO THIS WAS
DISCOUNTED AS HIGH PRES MAINTAINS DRIER AIR WITH HIGHER THETA-E
AIR REMAINING TO THE WEST. COOLER TEMPS IN THE 70S WITH SEABREEZES
LIKELY HOLDING TEMPS NEAR 70 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* STILL LOOKING WET FOR SUNDAY WITH THE REMNANTS OF TS BILL
* SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT OUTCOMES
* WET-WEATHER IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
* UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DRY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A RETURN OF WARMER-WET CONDITIONS BY THE END OF THE WEEK
DISCUSSION...
A FORECAST THAT CONTINUES TO WOBBLE WITH RESPECT TO TWO WEATHER
DISTURBANCES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING: 1. REMNANTS OF TS
BILL AND 2. STRETCHED PACIFIC-ORIGIN ENERGY THROUGH THE QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW.
OF CERTAINTY REMNANTS OF TS BILL ARE ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH THETA-E
AIR / +2-INCH PWATS AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOCUSED ALONG THE NOSE
OF A H925-85 LLJ ALONG ITS E-PERIPHERY OF CYCLONIC FLOW. IT IS
WITHIN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENT NOSE THERE IS A EXPECTATION
OF A GOOD SLUG OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A MOIST-ADIABATIC PROFILE WITH HIGH FREEZING-
LEVEL HEIGHTS. SUCH ANTICIPATED OUTCOMES COULD YIELD THE POSSIBILITY
OF NUISANCE/URBAN/POOR-DRAINAGE FLOODING ALBEIT NOT AS CATASTROPHIC
AS WHAT HAS BEEN WITNESSED UPSTREAM ACROSS TX / OK AS THE FLOW IS
PROGRESSIVE AND REMNANTS ARE BEING SWEPT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE ZONAL-FLOW REGIME.
BUT UNCERTAIN IS THE EXACT TRACK OF THE REMNANTS WHICH CONTINUE TO
WOBBLE AND HOW IT INTERACTS WITH THE NEIGHBORING N-STREAM IMPULSE.
WHILE THE TRACK HAS WOBBLED WITHIN THE LATEST FORECAST RUNS THERE IS
ALSO THE QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
CAN CONNECT WITH THE RRQ OF THE NEIGHBORING UPPER-LEVEL-JET N. THERE
DOES SEEM TO BE SOME LEVEL OF DIFFLUENCE TO SUPPORT DEEP-LAYER LIFT
AND UPSLOPING-OVERRUNNING MOISTURE. THE TIMING MAYBE PERHAPS OFF
SUCH THAT TROPICAL REMNANTS OF BILL MAY BE LIMITED IN THEIR REACH N.
PERHAPS NOT. THIS IN ADDITION THAT BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF ASCENT THERE
HAS TO BE AN AREA OF DESCENT/SINKING AIR. THERE HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT A
CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE NE-CONUS OF LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT BETWEEN THE UNPHASED DISTURBANCES.
SOME UNCERTAINTIES TO PONDER...BUT NEVERTHELESS WILL KEEP WITH A WET
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF TS BILL SLIDE S AND A COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH FROM THE N AND W TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING. WILL
MAINTAIN HIGHER POPS ALONG THE S-HALF OF S NEW ENGLAND. MAIN THREAT
IS HEAVY RAIN WITH LESSER CHANCES OF THUNDER. BUT THIS COULD BE A
SWING AND A MISS PER THE 19.0Z GFS AND ECMWF.
THEREAFTER...NOT LOOKING SUMMER-LIKE. MID-LEVEL ENERGY THROUGH THE
ZONAL-FLOW REGIME IS SHUNTED S GRADUALLY BY A POLAR-ORIGIN WAVE OUT
OF THE HUDSON BAY REGION SWEEPING +8-10C H85 AIR ACROSS THE REGION.
SO AN INITIAL IMPULSE OF WET-WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK-SYNOPTIC
LOW IS ANTICIPATED MONDAY NIGHT. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS AND JUST
SHOWERS. COULD SEE RENEWED ACTIVITY TUESDAY WITH THE ENVIRONMENT
DESTABILIZING MAINLY ACROSS THE N AND W INTERIOR PRIOR TO A STRONG
COLD FRONT DIGGING S PUSHING THE BETTER MOIST-CONVERGENT FLOW REGIME
W TO E ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC TEMPERATURES. LOOKING AT BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY. IN THE END
COULD PERHAPS SEE A CHILLY MONTH OF JUNE OF WHICH TEMPS PRESENTLY
ARE AVERAGING 3 DEGREES BELOW-NORMAL THROUGH THE 18TH.
AS THE POLAR-WAVE RETREATS BACK N TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WILL
SEE THE RETURN OF WARMER AIR AND AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN PER A
CONSENSUS OF FORECAST GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH LOCALIZED IFR POSSIBLE
ACROSS CT AND WESTERN MA. WIDELY SCT SHOWERS.
TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EARLY IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS QUICKLY
ERODES AND LIFTS TO VFR BY 15Z OR SO. THEN HAVE TO WATCH POTENTIAL
FOR RENEWED SHOWER/T-STORM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY FOCUSED OVER RI AND
SE MA AFT 18Z AS COLD FRONT GETS HUNG UP NEAR THE S COAST.
CONFIDENCE IN TSTMS IS LOW.
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. A LINGERING SHOWER POSSIBLE EARLY
ALONG THE S COAST WITH THE FRONT...OTHERWISE VFR BUT PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE NEAR THE S COAST.
SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CIGS.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR LATER THIS MORNING. A BRIEF SHOWER
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS MORNING. A WEAK SEABREEZE IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR LATER THIS MORNING. A BRIEF SHOWER
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MVFR / IFR ASSOC REMNANTS OF TS BILL. WIDESPREAD SHRA. POSSIBLE +RA
ALONG THE S-COAST. POTENTIAL VSBY IMPACTS. S-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO
20 KTS ASSOC WITH TS BILL BACKING NW WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
PUSHING REMNANTS OUT TO SEA.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
PERIODS OF -SHRA. LOW-END VFR. W/NW-WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TODAY...SW WINDS BECOMING LIGHT THEN LOCALLY EAST ACROSS E MA
WATERS AS WEAK SEABREEZES DEVELOP. WINDS REMAINING SW OVER S
COASTAL WATERS. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.
TONIGHT...LIGHT NE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. ANY EVENING SHOWERS
FOCUSED IN THE RI WATERS TO MVY/ACK AND SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
WATERS.
SATURDAY...WINDS TURNING SE WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT DEVELOPING.
SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
REMNANTS OF TS BILL. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS
ESP OVER THE S-WATERS. ANTICIPATING VISIBILITY IMPACTS. POSSIBLE
FOG. S-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ASSOC WITH TS BILL BACKING NW
WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE PUSHING REMNANTS OUT TO SEA. SEAS
BUILDING IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET ON THE S/SE-WATERS.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LIGHTER W/NW-WINDS. SEAS FALLING BELOW 5-FEET. PERIODS OF SHOWERS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...KJC/SIPPRELL
MARINE...KJC/SIPPRELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
143 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION
TOMORROW MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND...AS WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1040 PM EDT...A PROGRESSIVE AND DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER S-CNTRL ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC WITH THE CLOSED H500 CIRCULATION
OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC WILL BREAK DOWN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BRIEFLY
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. A COLD FRONT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
LATEST KENX AND REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF
HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. THERE HAVE BEEN A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER THANKS TO CLOUD-TO-CLOUD OR INTRA-CLOUD LTG
ACTIVITY OVER OUR AREA ACCORDING TO NATL LTG NETWORK DATA...BUT
ANY CLOUD TO GROUND STRIKES HAVE BEEN REMAINING WEST OF OUR AREA
OVER THE TUG HILL FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING.
RADAR TRENDS AND 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS BATCH OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE LAKE GEORGE
REGION...WITH MORE ACTIVITY SPREADING INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SARATOGA REGION REGION AS WELL...OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE
CONTINUED TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS OVER THIS AREA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO ONLY CALL THUNDER SLIGHT CHANCE
DUE TO SPORADIC AND SPARSE NATURE OF THE LTG DUE TO THE LIMITED
INSTABILITY IN PLACE. ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF A
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR...BUT HEAVY RAIN WILL BE SHORT LIVED IN ANY
ONE LOCATION...AND FLOODING WON/T BE A CONCERN.
FURTHER SOUTH...WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH MAINLY CHC POPS. THE 3KM
HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SPOTTY ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH THE
CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER...BUT THE MOST
CONCENTRATED SHOWERS/STORMS LOOKS TO REMAIN FURTHER NORTH.
LOWS TONIGHT WERE FAVORED TOWARDS THE WARMER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
WITH THE SLOW TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT. LOWS IN THE MID TO U50S
ARE LIKELY OVER THE MTNS...WITH MAINLY LOWER TO M60S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...THE CONSENSUS WITH
THE SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE IS A SLOWER TREND WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
SFC COLD FRONT...ITS ASSOCIATED DEWPT BOUNDARY...AND THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE THE SLOWEST...WITH THE GFS/ECMWF
A BIT FASTER. A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST
FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION/GLENS FALLS/SARATOGA REGION/SRN
VT SOUTH AND EAST IN THE MORNING.
THE LATER TIMING WILL ALLOW SLIGHTLY WARMER MAX TEMPS WITH THE
W/NW DOWNSLOPING WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY ALLOWING SOME
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING...ESPECIALLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MID
HUDSON VALLEY. THE SFC HIGH WILL BE QUICKLY BUILDING IN FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR IN THE
AFTERNOON FROM THE N/NW TO S/SE DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND WITH THE APPROACHING ANTICYCLONE.
IT WILL BE A BREEZY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE RELATIVELY STRONG SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS...AND BETTER MIXING FROM
ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO ISOLATED M80S FROM THE SRN
REACHES OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SRN
TACONICS IN THE PORTIONS OF LITCHFIELD CTY CT...MID AND U70S WILL
BE COMMON IN MANY OF THE OTHER VALLEY LOCATIONS AND OVER THE
HILLS...WITH M60S TO M70S OVER THE MTNS. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM
THE NW/N AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 MPH.
TOMORROW NIGHT...A CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS THAT BECOME LIGHT TO CALM...AS THE SFC HIGH
MOVES OVERHEARD. IT IS A VERY COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS. H850 TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE +7C TO +10C RANGE. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE U40S TO M50S FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION/MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST...AND MAINLY 40-45F
NORTH OF ALBANY WITH A FEW U30S OVER THE SRN DACKS.
SATURDAY...A NICE START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC
HIGH MOVING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUNNY/MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM
THE SOUTH AND WEST IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT OVER THE OH VALLEY
AND MID ATLANTIC SATES. THE REMNANT CIRCULATION FROM BILL WILL
ALSO APPROACH THE OH VALLEY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY POP UP LATE IN
THE DAY OVER THE CATSKILLS AND BERKSHIRES. OTHERWISE FAIR AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE MID AND U70S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND M60S TO L70S OVER
THE MTNS.
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH
THE WARM FRONT LIFTING N/NE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...AND A
SFC WAVE AND COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE TROUGH THAT WAS FORMERLY BILL LOOKS TO STAY SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THE INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND THETA-E ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS
TO INCREASE. THE SHOWALTER VALUES LOWER TO 0C TO -2C. THE PWATS
LOOKS TO INCREASE TO 1.25-1.75 INCHES. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS
ARE IN THE GRIDS WITH CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AND WILL MENTION IN THE HWO.
THE GREATEST THREAT LOOKS TO BE ON SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE RATHER ACTIVE...AS THE
REMNANTS OF TC BILL WILL BE PASSING BY THE SOUTH OF THE REGION ON
SUNDAY.
THE CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS
MANY OF THE 12Z GEFS MEMBERS...SHOWS THE REMNANT SFC LOW AND
HEAVIEST QPF ASSOCIATED WITH BILL MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION.
STILL...WITH PWAT VALUES AS HIGH AS 2-3 STD ABOVE NORMAL...ANY
SHOWER OR T-STORM OVER THE REGION WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SHOWERS
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...AS AN APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
WILL TEAM UP WITH THE REMNANT TC CIRCULATION TO ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/T-STORMS. T-STORM ACTIVITY DOES/T APPEAR TO BE TOO STRONG
DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY DUE TO PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND WARM
MID LEVEL TEMPS. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE HELD DOWN MAINLY INTO THE
70S THANKS TO THE PRECIP/CLOUDS.
ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS LOOKS TO BE ON
SUNDAY...THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT OR
MONDAY THANKS TO THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. TEMPS LOOK TO HOLD
IN THE 60S FOR SUN NIGHT...AND MID 70S TO LOW 80S FOR MONDAY...WITH
MORE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED AS THE BEST UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
STARTS TO MOVE AWAY.
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE
YET ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IMPACTS THE REGION FOR TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHC FOR THUNDER DURING TUESDAY
AFTN/EVE. TEMPS ON MON NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S...AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL PROBABLY BE IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR
80.
BEHIND THE STORM/S COLD FRONT...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL START
WORKING TO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SKIES WILL START TO CLEAR OUT TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOWS LATE ON TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. DRY WEATHER WITH
A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z...THEN VFR THEREAFTER.
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS.
RADARS INDICATED A LITTLE MORE ACTIVITY REGARDING SCATTERED
SHOWERS WORKING INTO THE TAF SITES. THERE WAS AN EARLIER LIGHTNING
STRIKE OR TWO ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF KGFL. AS OF
540Z...THERE HAD BEEN NONE IN THE BETTER PART OF AN HOUR.
EXPECT OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS TONIGHT DUE BUT PREVAILING LOW MVFR
(EXTRA FUEL REQUIRED) THROUGH THE MORNING PEAK AT ALL THE TAF
SITES. VISIBILITY WILL BE MAINLY VFR BUT OCCASIONAL DOWN TO MVFR
IN SHOWERS AND MIST.
THE WIND WHICH HAS BEEN MAINLY SOUTHERLY...WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO
THROUGH ABOUT 10Z...THEN SHIFT TO THE W/NW AND THEN EVENTUALLY
NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AFTER THE MORNING PEAK. THEY WILL
AVERAGE AROUND 10KTS...GUSTING UP TO 20KTS BY MIDDAY AT KPSF AND
KALB.
CLOUDS WILL LIFT BACK TO VFR AFTER 12Z...THEN EVENTUALLY BECOME
SCATTERED (EXCEPT AT KPOU WHERE A BKN CIG IS LIKELY MUCH OF THE
DAY BUT AGAIN AT 4500 KFT).
BY THIS EVENING...EXPECT A CLEAR SKY UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY AND
LIGHT WIND. THERE MIGHT BE SOME PATCHY FOG FORMING OVERNIGHT AND
WE WILL ADDRESS THAT POSSIBILITY MORE IN THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...AS WET AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RECOVER TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND DECREASE TO 25 TO 45 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE RH
VALUES RECOVER TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT SATURDAY MORNING.
THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 5-15 MPH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...AND WILL SHIFT TO THE W
TO NW AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 10 TO
20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH TOMORROW IN THE LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...BUT SOME RISES ARE POSSIBLE ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AS SOME WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
RETURNS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL RANGE FROM ONE TENTH TO A THIRD AN INCH WITH SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION.
WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY MONDAY...AS THE MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL ENTITY
BILL MAY IMPACT PARTS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE VARIABLE RIGHT NOW...BUT A WIDESPREAD HALF AN INCH AN INCH IS
LIKELY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
429 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND THEN STALL
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT AND THEN
MOVE EAST SATURDAY. THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL THEN MOVE BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATER ON SATURDAY. THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BILL WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH
ANOTHER SERIES OF FRONTS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A CDFNT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY AND HIGH PRES WILL
BUILD TO THE N AND SLOWLY MOVE SWD. THE CDFNT WILL STALL JUST TO
OUR S.
LTST STLT IMAGERY SHOWED AN AREA OF RAIN, WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER
MOVG ACRS SERN PA AND JUST MOVG INTO SRN NJ ERLY THIS MRNG. A
WEAKENING SMALLER AREA WAS MOVG ACRS DE AND MD. SOME ADDITIONAL
SHWRS WERE IMPACTING NWRN AREAS. THESE WERE ASSOCD WITH A S/WV MOVG
THRU. HRRR INDICATES THAT THINGS SHUD SETTLE DOWN LATER THIS MRNG
AS THIS PRECIP MOVES THRU.
THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT WITHIN THE MDLS WRT PRECIP CHCS TODAY.
WITH THE FRONT STALLING TO THE S, IT WOULD SEEM THAT IS WHERE THE
BEST CHCS WOULD BE. THE GFS AND WPC GUID IS ESSENTIALLY DRY. THEY
OTHER MDLS HAVE AT LEAST SOME CHC OF PRECIP SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA
DURG THE COURSE OF THE DAY. FOR NOW, WILL GO WITH A GENLY DRY FCST
AFTER THIS MRNG, BUT SOME PRECIP CAN NOT BE RULED OUT LATER IN THE
DAY. THE WIND SHUD BECOME MORE W TO NW WHICH WOULD ALSO FAVOR A
DRIER SOLN.
HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL MOVE EWD OVER NEW ENG TONIGHT AND A
DRY FCST IS ANTICIPATED. WIND WILL BECOME MORE NELY DUE TO THE
POSN OF THE HIGH. THERE IS BETTER MDL AGREEMENT ON THE TONIGHT
FCST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WE HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT EXTENDED PACKAGE.
WE DO NOT SEE MANY DRASTIC CHANGES FROM THE DAYTIME PACKAGE. A
MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE COUNTRY. A SUBTLE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN A WEAK RIDGE
BUILDS LATE. THE WAVY FRONT IN THE NEAR/SHORT TERM NEVER MOVES TOO
FAR AWAY. IT WILL MOVE BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE AREA KEEPING A
LARGELY UNSETTLED PATTERN.
SAT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. INCREASING
CLOUDS LATE. A CHC FOR SHOWERS OVER THE DELMARVA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.
SAT NIGHT THRU EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT...HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING POSSIBLE WITH THE REMNANTS OF FORMER TS BILL MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ABNORMALLY HIGH AND WITH
DECENT DYNAMICS AND A FRONT ACROSS THE AREA...ONE TO TWO INCHES OF
RAIN MAY OCCUR. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL...BUT ABOVE NORMAL FAR
SOUTH.
SUN NIGHT THRU MON...ANOTHER PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.
MON NIGHT THRU THU...UNSETTLED WITH CHCS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS MOSTLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL TUE...THEN NEAR NORMAL
WED/THU.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
CONDS RANGED FROM LIFR TO VFR ERLY THIS AM, WITH MOST
LOCATIONS SOMEWHERE IN THE IFR/MVFR RANGE. THERE WAS A SWATH OF
RAIN WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER MOVG ACRS S JERSEY AND ERN PA ATTM
AND THUNDER WAS EARLIER REPORTED AT KPHL AND KILG. EXPECT LWR CONDS
TO PREVAIL AT MOST SITES THRU THE MRNG HOURS BEFORE ALL SITES BECOME
VFR BY AFTN. VFR CONDS SHUD THEN PREVAIL THRU TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS TO THE N AND MOVES NE BY SAT MRNG.
WIND WILL GENLY BE S TO SW AND BECOME MORE W TO NW AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES AND WILL END UP MORE NELY TO E BY THE END OF THE TAF PD.
WIND SPEEDS WILL REACH AROUND 12 KTS DURG THE AFTN, BUT WILL
OTHERWISE BE LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU THE TAF PD.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA EARLY...MAINLY ILG, ACY, AND
MIV...OTHERWISE VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA...ESPECIALLY AT
PHL, PNE, TTN, ILG, AND RDG.
SUN...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN LOW CLOUDS, FOG, +SHRA...ESP LATE AM THRU
EARLY AFTN.
MON THRU TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ATTM.
&&
.MARINE...
NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THRU THE NEAR AND SHORT
TERM PDS.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS WITH A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW...
SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
SUN AND SUN NIGHT...A SERIES OF FRONTS AND THE REMNANTS OF TS BILL
WILL BE ACROSS THE WATERS. LOW END SCA GUSTS/SEAS POSSIBLE.
MON/TUE...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. SCT SHOWERS MON NIGHT/TUE.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...FRANCK/NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...FRANCK/NIERENBERG/O`HARA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1142 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
A SMALL SHORTWAVE HELPED PRODUCE LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES BETWEEN 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR WERE REPORTED EARLIER THIS
EVENING ACROSS CLAY COUNTY. WE RECEIVED REPORTS OF ROAD FLOODING
AND MOST DITCHES COMPLETELY FULL. THE RAP MODELS DEPICTION OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2 INCHES APPEARS ACCURATE BASED ON
RAINFALL EFFICIENCY. THE SHORTWAVE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS
EVENING, WITH A BREAK IN THE HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE LATE THIS
EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL RAIN AND STORM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BEFORE MORNING SOUTH OF I-72 AND
ESPECIALLY TOWARD I-70. POP AND WEATHER GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
FOR CURRENT TRENDS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND TO REMOVE POPS FOR PEORIA
AND NORTH, AS DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE NORTHEAST SHOULD
PROVIDE A RELATIVELY SHARP CUT-OFF TO THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
PRECIP SHIELD OVERNIGHT.
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR OUR SOUTHEAST 6 COUNTIES LOOKS ON TRACK
FOR THE EXPECTED PRECIP FROM THE REMNANTS OF BILL THROUGH
SATURDAY.
UPDATED FORECAST INFO IS ALREADY AVAILABLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS SOUTHEAST OF A CANTON TO PEORIA TO MINONK LINE
AT MID AFTERNOON. A FEW AREAS HAVE RECEIVED A QUICK 0.75 TO 1.25
INCHES IN LESS THAN AN HOUR IN TROPICAL AIRMASS WITH SOME WATER
OVER A FEW ROADS SE OF THE IL RIVER. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
RUNNING FROM 1.5 TO 2.25 INCHES FROM THE IL RIVER SOUTHEAST AND
SUPPORT THESE HEAVY RAINS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST SE OF THE IL
RIVER WILL PRESS SOUTHEAST TOWARD I-70 BY DAWN FRIDAY. MEANWHILE
1007 MB LOW PRESSURE (REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL) OVER EAST
CENTRAL OK WILL SLOWLY TRACK ENE INTO NORTH CENTRAL AR BY 12Z/FRI.
MODELS GENERALLY SHOW MORE WIDESPREAD QPF FROM I-72 SOUTH TONIGHT
AND HAVE HIT POPS HIGHEST IN THESE AREAS ALONG WITH HEAVIER QPF
NEAR A HALF INCH WITH LOCALLY 1 INCH AMOUNTS. JUST SLIGHT CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NW OF THE IL RIVER TONIGHT AND LIKELY
DRY OVER FAR NW CWA OVER KNOX AND STARK COUNTIES. LOWS TONIGHT
RANGE FROM LOWER 60S NORTHERN COUNTIES TO MID TO UPPER 60S FROM
I-72 SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
REMNANTS OF BILL WILL CONTINUE TO EFFECT THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
CWA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS DIFFER SOME ON TIMING OF THESE
REMNANTS INTO THE WEEKEND BUT SEEM TO AGREE ON TRACK/LOCATION AND
HOW FAR NORTH THE HEAVIEST PCPN WILL BE THROUGH THE FRI AND FRI
NIGHT PERIOD. THIS PCPN WILL BE SLOW MOVING SO HEAVY RAINFALL IS
DEFINITELY A THREAT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUED
FOR THUR NIGHT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI NIGHT. PCPN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE SATURDAY BUT THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING SHOULD HAVE ENDED
IN THE SOUTHEAST. ONCE REMNANTS OF BILL LEAVE THE AREA TO THE
EAST...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
BRING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FOR SAT NIGHT. THIS
FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO BY SUNDAY
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 85 TO 90 RANGE.
THE FRONT THAT MOVES IN SAT NIGHT WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER THE AREA
FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AND THEN WOBBLE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CWA ALL THE WAY THROUGH WED NIGHT. BY THEN IT
APPEARS THE FRONT COULD LIFT BACK NORTH SO THAT THE CHANCE OF PCPN
COULD END BY THURSDAY. HOWEVER WITH THIS BEING A WEEK AWAY...THE
FORECAST COULD CHANGE AND BRING THE PCPN BACK INTO THE AREA.
WITH THE CWA BEING SOMEWHAT IN THE WARM SECTOR...TEMPS WILL REMAIN
IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
SUSTAINED FORCING FOR PRECIP WILL EXIST AHEAD OF THE REMNANTS OF
BILL ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST AREA S OF I-72 THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF
SPI, DEC AND POSSIBLY CMI. PIA AND BMI HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF
REMAINING DRY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AS THEY RESIDE NORTH OF THE
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
INITIAL CONCERNS OVERNIGHT WILL BE CEILINGS DROPPING TO IFR BELOW
1K FEET, AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG. WE DON`T EXPECT WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG DUE TO A BLANKET OF CLOUDS, BUT MVFR FOG LOOKS LIKELY
BASED ON THE SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER AND LIGHT WINDS ALREADY IN
PLACE.
IFR CEILINGS COULD LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING, BUT THEN SHOULD
LIFT TO MVFR AS VIS IMPROVES ABOVE MVFR AS WELL.
PRECIP CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY FRIDAY EVENING,
SO WE DID NOT MENTION ANY RAIN AFTER 00Z/7PM.
WINDS HAVE BECOME EAST AT ALL BUT CMI, WHERE WINDS WENT SOUTHEAST
UNDER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FRONT IS PROJECTED TO REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW, SO WIND DIRECTIONS WILL NOT
CHANGE MUCH FROM TONIGHT.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR ILZ066>068-
071>073.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SHIMON
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM...AUTEN
AVIATION...SHIMON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1145 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
.DISCUSSION...
19/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS ACRS THE AREA COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.
LITTLE ACTIVITY NOTED ON RADAR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW SHRA
WELL SW OF THE AREA AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. LATEST STLT SHOWS
MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING NE OVER THE AREA...ALONG WITH A FEW
STRATOCU IN THE LOWER LVLS. VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
ALTHOUGH SOME LOW MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP BRIEFLY NEAR DAYBREAK. LOW
CIGS WILL LIFT/DISSIPATE BY MID-MORNING WITH SWLY WINDS AROUND 10
KT OR LESS DURING THE DAY. WITH THE AREA REMAINING UNDER A
WEAKNESS ALOFT AS THE REMNANTS OF BILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION
AND DECENT MOISTURE STILL STREAMING FM SRN/SE TX INTO NRN
LA...WENT AHEAD AND INSERTED VCSH FOR BPT AND AEX DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW WITH ANY ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO ISLTD
FOR MENTION AT THIS TIME. 24
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 919 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015/
UPDATE...DUE TO AREAL FLOODING AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH GOING THROUGH TONIGHT. WHILE RAIN HAS DISSIPATED IN
THE EARLY EVENING...LATEST HRRR HINTS AT SOME DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
SE TEXAS LATE TONIGHT AND EVEN MODEST AMOUNTS COULD POSE SOME
PROBLEMS TONIGHT OVER WATCH AREA.
NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS MOMENT.
AP
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015/
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOWN BY
RADAR MOSAIC FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA...AND THEN EXTENDING FURTHER NORTHEAST. ACTIVITY
FOCUSED WITHIN MOISTURE PLUME LEFT FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL
NOW OVER EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND ON A NORTHEAST TRACK. FLASH
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS
AND WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA. CONVECTION HAS SLIPPED A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND IS NOW KNOCKING ON
THE DOORS OF HARDIN AND TYLER COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY
MONITOR CONVECTION...AND HOPEFULLY IT WILL TREND TOWARD MODEL
GUIDANCE LIMITING ANY ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS THIS
AREA. NONE-THE-LESS...MODELS HAVE BEEN LESS THAN SCHOLAR REGARDING
THE EASTERN EXTENT OF MASS FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH BILL. HAVE
MAINTAINED RESPECTABLE POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS/WEST CENTRAL
LOUISIANA FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
BILL WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NORTHEAST. AREA WILL HOWEVER REMAIN
UNDER A WEAKNESS ALOFT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND SOUTHWEST
CONUS ANTICYCLONE. WITH A MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINING
IN PLACE AND NO CAPPING...SHOULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
THE NEW WEEK WILL SEE AN EASTWARD EXPANSION OF SOUTHWEST CONUS
RIDGE INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL SET UP THE LIKELIHOOD OF LITTLE IF
ANY RAINS...AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES TICKING UPWARD.
MARINE...A LIGHT AND OCCASIONAL MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW CAN BE
EXPECTED AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH BECOMES REESTABLISHED OVER THE
REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN MINIMAL. 23
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 75 90 74 92 / 20 30 10 20
LCH 76 89 76 89 / 20 20 10 20
LFT 76 89 75 90 / 20 20 10 20
BPT 76 89 75 90 / 30 30 10 20
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR LAZ027-030.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
259>262.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1202 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM
THE SW CONUS INTO ALBERTA/SASK AND A BROAD TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY
INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES RESULTING IN WNW FLOW TOWARD UPPER MI. AT
THE SFC...HIGH PRES FROM MANITOBA INTO THE NRN PLAINS WAS BUILDING
INTO THE AREA WITH NRLY WINDS AND DRY AIR ADVECTION THROUGH LAKE
SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI. VIS LOOP INDICATED THAT THE EXTENSIVE
STRATOCU OVER THE NORTH HAD RAPIDLY DISSIPATED...LEAVING CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE CWA.
TONIGHT...HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. WITH CLEAR
SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND PWATS DROPPING AOB
0.25 INCH...MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL OFF INTO THE 33 TO 36
RANGE OVER INLAND LOCATIONS. SO...PATCHY FROST WAS MENTIONED AND AN
SPS ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE COLD CONDITIONS. WITH HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASING LATE TONIGHT OR TOWARD DAYBREAK...PER MODELS 500-400 MB
RH...TEMPS MAY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVER THE WEST LATE.
FRI...SRLY WINDS DEVELOPING AS THE HIGH SLIPS OFF TO THE SE WILL
BRING A RETURN OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY. INCREASING
300K-310K MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LIFT MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS LATE
INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER UPPER MI WITH DRY WEATHER LINGERING.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
DURING THE LONG TERM...A LOW AMPLITUDE/PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE NRN CONUS/SRN CANADA TO THE N OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE THAT WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE SRN CONUS. HOWEVER...IN GENERAL...
THERE WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR WEAK TROFFING TO BECOME ESTABLISHED
FROM THE UPPER LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND. FOR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...
THIS MEANS FAIRLY FREQUENT OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN...THOUGH...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SAT...MOST WILL ONLY BE ISOLD/SCT COVERAGE OF SHRA.
TEMPS WILL LIKELY END UP CLOSE TO NORMAL OR A LITTLE BLO NORMAL OVER
THE NEXT 7 DAYS. LOOKING OUT FARTHER THRU LATE JUN AND INTO EARLY
JUL...CFSV2 MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THIS PATTERN MAY CONTINUE...RESULTING
IN PCPN AMOUNTS MORE LIKELY BEING NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL AND TEMPS
MORE LIKELY BEING NORMAL TO BLO NORMAL. EXTENDED PERIODS OF
HEAT/UNCOMFORTABLE HUMIDITY AND A LACK OF PCPN APPEAR UNLIKELY THRU
EARLY JUL.
OVER THE WEEKEND...A COMPLEX SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL STREAK ACROSS
THE NRN CONUS/SRN CANADA. MODELS REALLY DON`T SHOW ANY OF THE WAVES
STANDING OUT WHICH MAKES FOR A MORE CHALLENGING FCST WITH REGARD TO
PCPN...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE RANGE OF MODEL PCPN FCSTS IN RECENT
DAYS. THAT SAID...TODAYS 12Z MODEL RUNS AND THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS OF
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS HAVE CONSISTENTLY POINTED TOWARD SAT FOR THE
BEST POTENTIAL OF PCPN/COLD FRONT ARRIVAL. SO...FCST WILL CONTINUE
TO REFLECT HIGHEST POPS (LIKELY) ON SAT. PRIOR TO THAT...WITH LOW-
LEVEL JET/850MB THETA-E AXIS TRANSLATING E TOWARD UPPER MI FRI NIGHT
IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING WAVES...CHC POPS FOR SHRA/TSTM ARE
WARRANTED FOR THE W OVERNIGHT. PER RECENT MODEL TRENDS...SLOWED
ONSET OF PCPN CHANCES AND LIMITED MENTION TO JUST WRN UPPER MI.
DAYTIME HEATING AND ARRIVAL OF COLD FRONT SAT AFTN/EVENING WILL
BRING THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN. WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-
50KT...ORGANIZED STORMS AND SVR RISK WILL BE PRESENT IF SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS...BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE THE BIG UNKNOWN UNTIL
SAT MOVES INTO THE SHORT TERM. WITH THE 12Z MODEL RUNS...THE NAM
SHOWS ALMOST NO INSTABILITY SAT/SAT EVENING WHILE THE GFS SHOWS
MLCAPE INCREASING INTO THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER
ROUGHLY THE INTERIOR W HALF OF UPPER MI. SO AT THIS POINT...THE
CURRENT DAY3 SPC OUTLOOK APPEARS ON TRACK WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR
IN CNTRL/SRN WI WITH MRGL RISK RUNNING NEAR THE WI/MI BORDER AND
THRU MENOMINEE COUNTY. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.5 INCHES...
HVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS.
HEADING INTO SUN...THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER ANY TRAILING
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT...
PERHAPS GENERATING SOME LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE SHOWERS WITH DAYTIME
HEATING UNDER LIGHT WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES
MOVING INTO THE UPPER LAKES. WILL RETAIN FLAVOR OF INHERITED FCST
WITH NOTHING HIGHER THAN SCHC POPS...MAINLY IN THE INTERIOR CNTRL
AND E.
THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW/ZONAL FLOW REGIME NEXT WEEK IS PROBLEMATIC WITH
REGARD TO TIMING/STRENGTH/TRACK OF SHORTWAVES...TYPICAL FOR THIS
TYPE OF PATTERN IN THE WARM SEASON. THIS IS CERTAINLY EVIDENT WHEN
LOOKING AT THE RATHER SIGNIFICANT VARIABILITY OF FEATURES IN MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. AT THIS POINT...THERE ARE NO
INDICATIONS FOR A WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT PCPN EVENT IN THE MON THRU
THU TIME FRAME. WHEN PCPN DOES OCCUR IN UPPER MI...IT WILL LIKELY BE
SCT. FOR NOW...PLAN TO USE A SIMPLE CONSENSUS OF CURRENT AND RECENT
MODEL RUNS TO CONSTRUCT FCST. RESULT IS SCHC TO LOW CHC POPS ON MOST
DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD FOR ALL
SITES UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. EACH ONE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS.
EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT/FRI MORNING AS HIGH PRES PASSES
OVER THE AREA. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES...S WINDS WILL INCREASE FRI AFTN THROUGH SAT MORNING.
WINDS MAY GUST TO 15-25KT FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING OVER CNTRL AND ERN
LAKE SUPERIOR. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SAT AFTN.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP OVER THE LAKE. SINCE THE HIGH PRES
FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL BE WEAK...WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...UNDER 20KT FOR LATE SAT THRU SUN. THE GRADUAL
ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH WILL DISSIPATE ANY
LINGERING FOG ON SUN. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL LINGER INTO TUE UNDER A
WEAK PRES GRADIENT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
406 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH GFS 500MB HEIGHTS
AND WINDS SHOWED AROUND 50KTS OF ZONAL FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. BOOKENDING THIS ZONAL FLOW WERE
TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS...ONE OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...AND THE
OTHER OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC. THE UPSTREAM LOW IS THE ONE OF MOST
INTEREST...SINCE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW WILL
BREAK OFF INTO THE ZONAL FLOW...CROSS THE ROCKIES...AND BE THE
TRIGGER FOR HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL CARRY
OVER TO MN/WI FRIDAY NIGHT AS DISCUSSED IN MORE DETAIL IN THE LONG
TERM SECTION.
MEANWHILE...A NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ONGOING ACROSS THE
BADLANDS OF SOUTH DAKOTA WILL FALL APART BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE
TWIN CITIES. THE 19.05 HRRR DEPICTS THIS...AND THE CAUSE IS A MORE
STABLE AIRMASS...AS WELL AS SLIGHT LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. AS A
RESULT EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN CONVECTIVE DEBRIS TODAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 ACROSS MN...AND MID 70S IN
WESTERN WI. A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR WESTERN
MN WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH.
CONTINUED WITH 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR PRECIP...BUT TRIMMED DOWN THE
AREA CLOSER TO THE HIRES MODEL CONSENSUS.
925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT BLOSSOMS ACROSS EASTERN SD AND
WESTERN MN BY 06Z SATURDAY ON THE NOSE OF A 50 KT LOW LEVEL
JET. THIS SHOULD HELP FUEL THE DIURNAL CONVECTION THAT IS
EXPECTED TO HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL DAKOTAS...AND
ACCELERATE IT EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. STILL LOOKS TO BE A POTENTIAL WIND-
MAKER...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE LOSING SOME STEAM AS IT WORKS
EASTWARD INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
AT DAYBREAK SATURDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL MN. HI-RES MODELS
INDICATE A QUASI-BOW STRUCTURE WILL DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH IT IS
FORECAST TO DEINTENSIFY BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
BY 18Z SATURDAY...THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER WEST CENTRAL WI DOWN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLEARING AND SUBSEQUENT DESTABILIZATION WE
CAN TAP INTO...SHOULD SEE REDEVELOPMENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
THE COLD FRONT. SATURDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL HAVE A DECENT
CHANCE OF BEING STRONG AGAIN. HOWEVER...IT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED
THAT THE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WILL HELP PUSH THE BOUNDARY OUT OF
THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...THUS REDUCING THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS IN OUR FORECAST AREA. IF THE OVERNIGHT COMPLEX DOES NOT END
UP BEING AS STRONG AS EXPECTED...SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY
HAVE A HIGHER RISK FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS FROM CENTRAL/SOUTH
CENTRAL MN EAST ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI.
ON SUNDAY INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...THE FRONT
WOBBLES IN AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA...AS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
TRAVERSE THE FAST WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW REGIME. THERE WILL BE A
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE BOUNDARY...ALTHOUGH THAT
THREAT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY TO LIE SOUTH OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL
OVERALL...WITH A TEMPORARY UPTICK TO HIGHS IN THE 80S OVER THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. EASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
BY MID MORNING...WITH GUSTS NEAR 20KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO MOVE OUT OF THE DAKOTAS AND INTO MN/WI
FRIDAY NIGHT. HANDLED THAT WITH A VCTS GROUP.
KMSP...
VFR THROUGHOUT. NO NOTEWORTHY DIFFERENCES FROM GENERAL AVIATION
DISCUSSION
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...TSRA/RA LIKELY EARLY...WINDS SSW AT 10G15 KT.
SUN...VFR WITH TSRA/SHRA POSSIBLE. WINDS W AT 5-10 KT.
MON...VFR WITH TSRA/SHRA POSSIBLE. WIND N AT 5-10 KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRB/LS
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
154 AM MDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.UPDATE...
LAST OF SEVERE STORMS HAS EXITED CARTER COUNTY AND HAVE CANCELLED
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WHICH WAS IN EFFECT FOR POWDER RIVER
AND CARTER COUNTIES...THOUGH WEAKER CONVECTION REMAINS AS FAR WEST
AS ROSEBUD COUNTY. CLEARING SKIES AND DRY WX EXIST ACROSS OUR WEST
HALF. JKL
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...
CURRENT FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK ON TRACK WITH SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS A GOOD POSSIBILITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING HOURS AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OUT TOWARD THE
DAKOTA BORDERS. WEAK RIDGING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA WILL
FLATTEN WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS AS A SHORTWAVE OVER IDAHO MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. AN EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW COMBINED WITH LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE FAR EAST HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S SO FAR
TODAY. SATELLITE IS SHOWING AREAS OF SUN ACROSS OUR CENTRAL ZONES
WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. CURRENTLY
BEST CAPES ARE WHERE THERE HAS BEEN SUN. EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS
AND CLOUDS ARE KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE CAPPED AND SOUNDINGS CONCUR
WITH THIS. HOWEVER...AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND MOVES OVER
OUR AREA THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO BREAK BY LATE AFTERNOON.
MAJORITY OF THE ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW STORMS FIRING WEST OF
BILLINGS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND MOVING EAST INTO THE BILLINGS AREA
BY 7 OR 8 PM. HOWEVER...SOME MODELS TAKE THE STORMS JUST NORTH AND
SOUTH OF BILLINGS SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON EXACT LOCATIONS OF
STORM DEVELOPMENT. ALL PARAMETERS POINT TO THE POSSIBILITY OF ANY
STORM CONTAINING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. MODELS THEN SHOW
INDIVIDUAL STORMS FORMING MORE OF A COMPLEX OF STORMS JUST EAST OF
BILLINGS BY MID EVENING. LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN IS NOW SHOWING A
COUPLE SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN
ROSEBUD...POWDER RIVER AND CARTER COUNTIES. ALL THE MODELS AGREE
ON MERGING THE STORMS INTO AN MCS LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY FOR OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. WE REMAIN
CONCERNED WITH THE CURRENT CAP BUT WE STILL BELIEVE IT WILL BREAK
IN PLACES.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE ACTUALLY SHOWS FRIDAY TO HAVE BETTER
CHANCES FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM EVENT THAN TODAY.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST AS TONIGHTS STORMS MAY PLACE A
ROLE IN HOW THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REACT FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
HIGHLIGHTING AREAS FROM BILLINGS EASTWARD WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
A DAMAGING WIND EVENT.
THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING TO BE LESS ACTIVE AS A MORE STABLE AIRMASS
WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. HOOLEY
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...
A FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WHILE THE ENSEMBLES WERE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
OVER THE UPCOMING PATTERN...THERE WERE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
DETAILS OF THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF.
SUN AND SUN NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE AREA AS RIDGING
MOVES OVER THE AREA. SOME ENERGY AND MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH THE
FLOW MON AND MON NIGHT BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. MODELS DISAGREED ON THE PROGRESSION
OF A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TUE AND TUE NIGHT SO LEFT INHERITED POPS
ACROSS THE AREA ALONE. DIFFERENCES CONTINUED THROUGH WED NIGHT
DUE TO THE PACIFIC WAVE...SO AGAIN MADE NO CHANGES. THE GFS SHOWED
HIGH CAPES OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA TUE
AFTERNOON THROUGH WED...AND BULK SHEAR WAS STRONG AS WELL. THE GFS
WAS STRONGER WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAN THE ECMWF...SO IF THE GFS
VERIFIES...THERE WILL BE POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TUE
AFTERNOON THROUGH WED. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THU. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL REACH INTO THE 80S WHICH IS A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. ARTHUR
&&
.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN
MT BY ABOUT 06 UTC...AND THEN EXIT SOUTHEASTERN MT BY 12 UTC. MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH STRONG WINDS...HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST CELLS. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCHULTZ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 061/084 056/081 056/080 055/084 058/083 059/082 059/085
13/T 22/T 21/B 12/T 22/T 33/T 32/T
LVM 054/083 047/079 048/081 050/083 051/083 051/081 050/085
14/T 22/T 21/B 22/T 23/T 33/T 32/T
HDN 060/087 056/082 055/081 056/086 057/085 058/084 059/086
13/T 42/T 21/B 11/B 12/T 33/T 32/T
MLS 061/086 057/081 055/080 055/081 058/082 060/081 057/082
43/T 41/B 22/W 12/T 22/T 33/T 32/T
4BQ 061/086 056/080 056/081 056/083 059/082 059/081 057/082
83/T 61/B 22/W 22/T 22/T 33/T 32/T
BHK 060/084 055/080 053/078 053/077 056/078 058/078 054/078
63/T 61/U 22/T 22/T 22/T 44/T 32/T
SHR 056/084 052/077 052/078 053/084 055/083 055/080 054/082
13/T 52/T 21/B 11/B 12/T 32/T 22/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
1108 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2015
.UPDATE...
WE HAVE ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR POWDER RIVER AND
CARTER COUNTIES DOWNSTREAM OF THE INTENSE...BUT SMALL AND BOWING
MCS WHICH IS CENTERED ON TONGUE RIVER RESERVOIR AT 11 PM MDT. THE
SEVERE STORMS ARE WELL-ORGANIZED NOW WITH IMPRESSIVE MID-ALTITUDE
RADIAL CONVERGENCE SIGNATURES INDICATIVE OF SEVERE WINDS AT THE
SURFACE. THE WATCH GOES UNTIL 5 AM MDT...BUT WILL LIKELY BE
CANCELLED MUCH EARLIER THAN THAT ONCE THE STORMS MOVE PAST THOSE
COUNTIES.
THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ELSEWHERE IS LIKELY OVER FOR THE NIGHT.
SCHULTZ
PREVIOUS UPDATE...ISSUED AT 810 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2015...
CONVECTION NEAR BIG TIMBER IS INTENSIFYING JUST BEFORE 8 PM...BUT
IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF IT WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
DOWNSTREAM WHERE THE AIR MASS IS AND HAS BEEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A RATHER STRONG CAP. WE ARE NONETHELESS MAINTAINING A MENTION
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY...
WHICH WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN ITSELF IN SOME MANNER INTO SOUTHEASTERN
MT OVERNIGHT GIVEN A NOCTURNAL 40-50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. ALL WE DID
FOR THE EVENING FORECAST UPDATE WAS ADJUST BOTH POPS AND HOURLY
TEMPERATURES BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. SCHULTZ
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...
CURRENT FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK ON TRACK WITH SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS A GOOD POSSIBILITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING HOURS AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OUT TOWARD THE
DAKOTA BORDERS. WEAK RIDGING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA WILL
FLATTEN WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS AS A SHORTWAVE OVER IDAHO MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. AN EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW COMBINED WITH LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE FAR EAST HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S SO FAR
TODAY. SATELLITE IS SHOWING AREAS OF SUN ACROSS OUR CENTRAL ZONES
WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. CURRENTLY
BEST CAPES ARE WHERE THERE HAS BEEN SUN. EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS
AND CLOUDS ARE KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE CAPPED AND SOUNDINGS CONCUR
WITH THIS. HOWEVER...AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND MOVES OVER
OUR AREA THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO BREAK BY LATE AFTERNOON.
MAJORITY OF THE ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW STORMS FIRING WEST OF
BILLINGS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND MOVING EAST INTO THE BILLINGS AREA
BY 7 OR 8 PM. HOWEVER...SOME MODELS TAKE THE STORMS JUST NORTH AND
SOUTH OF BILLINGS SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON EXACT LOCATIONS OF
STORM DEVELOPMENT. ALL PARAMETERS POINT TO THE POSSIBILITY OF ANY
STORM CONTAINING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. MODELS THEN SHOW
INDIVIDUAL STORMS FORMING MORE OF A COMPLEX OF STORMS JUST EAST OF
BILLINGS BY MID EVENING. LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN IS NOW SHOWING A
COUPLE SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN
ROSEBUD...POWDER RIVER AND CARTER COUNTIES. ALL THE MODELS AGREE
ON MERGING THE STORMS INTO AN MCS LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY FOR OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. WE REMAIN
CONCERNED WITH THE CURRENT CAP BUT WE STILL BELIEVE IT WILL BREAK
IN PLACES.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE ACTUALLY SHOWS FRIDAY TO HAVE BETTER
CHANCES FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM EVENT THAN TODAY.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST AS TONIGHTS STORMS MAY PLACE A
ROLE IN HOW THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REACT FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
HIGHLIGHTING AREAS FROM BILLINGS EASTWARD WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
A DAMAGING WIND EVENT.
THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING TO BE LESS ACTIVE AS A MORE STABLE AIRMASS
WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. HOOLEY
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...
A FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WHILE THE ENSEMBLES WERE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
OVER THE UPCOMING PATTERN...THERE WERE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
DETAILS OF THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF.
SUN AND SUN NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE AREA AS RIDGING
MOVES OVER THE AREA. SOME ENERGY AND MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH THE
FLOW MON AND MON NIGHT BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. MODELS DISAGREED ON THE PROGRESSION
OF A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TUE AND TUE NIGHT SO LEFT INHERITED POPS
ACROSS THE AREA ALONE. DIFFERENCES CONTINUED THROUGH WED NIGHT
DUE TO THE PACIFIC WAVE...SO AGAIN MADE NO CHANGES. THE GFS SHOWED
HIGH CAPES OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA TUE
AFTERNOON THROUGH WED...AND BULK SHEAR WAS STRONG AS WELL. THE GFS
WAS STRONGER WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAN THE ECMWF...SO IF THE GFS
VERIFIES...THERE WILL BE POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TUE
AFTERNOON THROUGH WED. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THU. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL REACH INTO THE 80S WHICH IS A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. ARTHUR
&&
.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WINDS...HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
CROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN MT OVERNIGHT...MOVING INTO SD BY 11 UTC.
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE WHOLE AREA ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCHULTZ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 061/084 056/081 056/080 055/084 058/083 059/082 059/085
43/T 22/T 21/B 12/T 22/T 33/T 32/T
LVM 054/083 047/079 048/081 050/083 051/083 051/081 050/085
34/T 22/T 21/B 22/T 23/T 33/T 32/T
HDN 060/087 056/082 055/081 056/086 057/085 058/084 059/086
43/T 42/T 21/B 11/B 12/T 33/T 32/T
MLS 061/086 057/081 055/080 055/081 058/082 060/081 057/082
63/T 41/B 22/W 12/T 22/T 33/T 32/T
4BQ 061/086 056/080 056/081 056/083 059/082 059/081 057/082
93/T 61/B 22/W 22/T 22/T 33/T 32/T
BHK 060/084 055/080 053/078 053/077 056/078 058/078 054/078
63/T 61/U 22/T 22/T 22/T 44/T 32/T
SHR 056/084 052/077 052/078 053/084 055/083 055/080 054/082
23/T 52/T 21/B 11/B 12/T 32/T 22/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 312 IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM MDT FRIDAY
FOR ZONES 36-37.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
350 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL WEAKEN THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL APPROACHES THE REGION FROM
THE WEST. THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN NEXT WEEK AS A
STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE
VIRGINIAS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM FRIDAY...
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH A VEIL OF HIGHS CLOUDS TO START THE DAY. MANY
OF THE SAME WEATHER FEATURES THAT HAVE BEEN AROUND FOR THE
PAST DAY OR TWO ARE STILL PRESENT TODAY. THE PERSISTENT
SOUTHEAST RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTH TODAY AND HEIGHTS FALL A BIT
RESULTING IN MAXES TODAY THAT ARE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER
THAN THURSDAY. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM 91 IN THE TRIAD TO 98
NEAR THE SC BORDER.
A HEAT ADVISORY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN...THE SANDHILLS AND THE SOUTHEAST
PIEDMONT. HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THESE AREAS WILL RANGE FROM 101
TO 105 AGAIN TODAY MAKING IT THE 3RD OR 4TH DAY THIS WEEK WITH
SUCH HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
FOCUS INITIALLY ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN PIEDMONT IN A
REGION OF WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MODEST BULK SHEAR
VALUES. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN IN A REGION OF MODERATE
TO EVEN STRONG INSTABILITY AND RAP PROGGED DCAPE VALUES
GREATER THAN 1300 J/KG. SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...THE MAIN SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL BE FROM LOW END ORGANIZED OR MULTICELL
STORMS PRODUCING DOWNBURST WINDS. -BLAES
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT FRIDAY...
CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE ONGOING TONIGHT AT THE START OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE CONVECTION WILL SHIFT EASTWARD WITH TIME
AND DEMONSTRATE A SLOW WEAKENING LATE IN THE EVENING AND DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE 60 TO 75 RANGE.
THE REMNANTS OF BILL WILL MOVE FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON SATURDAY. AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND THE WEAKENING RIDGE WILL RESULT IN MAX
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR OR JUST A NUDGE COOLER THAN FRIDAY.
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON... MOST FAVORED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT
IN PROXIMITY TO THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND DEEP MOISTURE.
-BLAES
&&
..LONG TERM/SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM FRIDAY...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT:
REMNANTS OF TC BILL...PROGGED TO BE INVOF THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEY
REGION SATURDAY MORNING WILL FINALLY GET PICKED BY THE MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES ON SATURDAY AND WILL GET SWEPT EASTWARD THROUGH THE
REGION...SHEARING ALONG THE WAY INTO A COMPACT OPEN TROUGH AS IT
CROSSES THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY.
NOT QUITE THE MOST FAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL STABILIZE OVERNIGHT...BUT THERE WILL BE COPIOUS CAPE ABOVE THE
INVERSION THAT WILL HELP CONVECTION TO SUSTAIN OVERNIGHT AS PWATS
INCREASE TO ~2.0". EXPECT POPS TO INCREASE LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FROM THE WEST AND SPREAD EAST
OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO LOW
LIKELY/HIGH CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER IN PROXIMITY TO THE
BETTER FORCING...TO SMALL CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH.
RAIN SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING THE COASTAL PLAIN BY MID
MORNING WITH FCST SOUNDINGS SHOWING PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE/WARMING
ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING TROUGH THAT WILL SUPPRESS
CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON .
WHILE ANY LINGERING MORNING CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUDINESS MAY RESULT IN A SLUGGISH WARM-UP...FULL SUN DURING THE
AFTERNOON WILL SEND TEMPERATURES SOARING TO WHAT WE HAVE COME
ACCUSTOM TO LATELY. HIGHS TO THE MID 90S NORTH AND UPPER 90S SOUTH.
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
ZONAL FLOW ON MONDAY WILL QUICKLY VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY AS AN UPPER
RIDGE AMPLIFIES IN THE MIDWEST AND MIGRATES EAST THROUGH THURSDAY.
NO RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IS IN SIGHT FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK WITH
PROJECTED LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES 1440-1450 METERS WHILE H8
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO HOVER BETWEEN 20 TO 22C...WHICH WILL
EASILY SUPPORT HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE MID 90S NW TO LOWER 100-102
ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. THESE HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL RESULT IN A A PROLONGED
4 TO 5 CONSECUTIVE DAY STRETCH OF HEAT INDICES OF 102 TO 105 RANGE
ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL
LIKELY WARRANT FUTURE HEAT ADVISORIES FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK.
STRONG ADIABATIC HEATING WILL SUPPORT SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
OF CONVECTION EACH DAY...WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES IN THE FAR WEST
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS WITH INLAND
PENETRATION OF SEABREEZE. DISTURBANCES IN THE AFOREMENTIONED NW FLOW
ALOFT COULD PROVIDE HIGHER/MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES...WILL WOULD
GREATLY OFFER SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT(FINGERS CROSSED)...HOWEVER
MODEL CONFIDENCE IN SUCH MESOSCALE FEATURES THIS FAR OUT IS TOO LOW
AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...
A LINGERING ARC OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL NC AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.
OUTSIDE OF THIS CONVECTION WITH ITS ASSOCIATED LOCAL VSBY AND CIG
RESTRICTIONS... MOST OF CENTRAL NC SHOULD EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FOG OR SHALLOW STRATUS IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE DAYBREAK AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS RELAX.
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH A
VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS. DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATE
MORNING WITH ANOTHER STORMY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING EXPECTED. THE
STORMS WILL INITIALLY BE MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE TRIAD AREA AND
TRANSITION EASTWARD AS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. THE CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY
DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATE IN THE EVENING ALTHOUGH SOME
PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY.
LOOKING BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY MAY
FEATURE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE BEFORE MORE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING STORMS ARRIVE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. -BLAES
&&
.CLIMATE...
REC
REC HI
DAY MAX YR MIN YR
RDU RECORDS
06/19 102 1944 73 2010
06/20 102 1887 77 1924
06/21 101 1933 75 1933
GSO RECORDS
06/19 100 1944 77 1970
06/20 100 1924 75 2009
06/21 100 1933 75 1924
FAY RECORDS
06/19 102 1944 75 1948
06/20 102 1970 77 2009
06/21 105 1933 74 1999
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ042-043-077-078-085-086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...BLAES
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...BLAES
CLIMATE...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
346 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL WEAKEN THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL APPROACHES THE REGION FROM
THE WEST. THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN NEXT WEEK AS A
STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE
VIRGINIAS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM FRIDAY...
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH A VEIL OF HIGHS CLOUDS TO START THE DAY. MANY
OF THE SAME WEATHER FEATURES THAT HAVE BEEN AROUND FOR THE
PAST DAY OR TWO ARE STILL PRESENT TODAY. THE PERSISTENT
SOUTHEAST RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTH TODAY AND HEIGHTS FALL A BIT
RESULTING IN MAXES TODAY THAT ARE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER
THAN THURSDAY. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM 91 IN THE TRIAD TO 98
NEAR THE SC BORDER.
A HEAT ADVISORY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN...THE SANDHILLS AND THE SOUTHEAST
PIEDMONT. HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THESE AREAS WILL RANGE FROM 101
TO 105 AGAIN TODAY MAKING IT THE 3RD OR 4TH DAY THIS WEEK WITH
SUCH HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
FOCUS INITIALLY ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN PIEDMONT IN A
REGION OF WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MODEST BULK SHEAR
VALUES. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN IN A REGION OF MODERATE
TO EVEN STRONG INSTABILITY AND RAP PROGGED DCAPE VALUES
GREATER THAN 1300 J/KG. SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...THE MAIN SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL BE FROM LOW END ORGANIZED OR MULTICELL
STORMS PRODUCING DOWNBURST WINDS. -BLAES
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT FRIDAY...
CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE ONGOING TONIGHT AT THE START OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE CONVECTION WILL SHIFT EASTWARD WITH TIME
AND DEMONSTRATE A SLOW WEAKENING LATE IN THE EVENING AND DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE 60 TO 75 RANGE.
THE REMNANTS OF BILL WILL MOVE FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON SATURDAY. AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND THE WEAKENING RIDGE WILL RESULT IN MAX
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR OR JUST A NUDGE COOLER THAN FRIDAY.
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON... MOST FAVORED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT
IN PROXIMITY TO THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND DEEP MOISTURE.
-BLAES
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...
REMNANTS OF TC BILL WILL BE PICKED UP IN THE WESTERLIES AND SWEPT
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC NORTH OF
THE AREA. THE SOUTHERN TAIL OF THE WEAKENING SHEAR AXIS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. NOT QUITE THE MOST FAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL STABILIZE OVERNIGHT...BUT THERE WILL BE COPIOUS
CAPE ABOVE THE INVERSION AND WOULD EXPECT A LINE OF CONVECTION TO
ACCOMPANY THE WAVE AND WILL INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER.
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE WAVE WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION ON SUNDAY. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 90S...AND WHILE THERE MAY BE
LINGERING CLOUDINESS TO DECREASE RADIATION EARLY SUNDAY...SUBSIDENCE
WILL ACT AS A COUNTERBALANCE AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RISE 10
METERS SUNDAY...INDICATIVE OF A 2-3 DEGREE RISE...SO WILL BUMP HIGHS
TO THE MID 90S NORTH AND UPPER 90S SOUTH.
INITIAL ZONAL FLOW MONDAY WILL TIP TO THE NORTHWEST AS AN UPPER
RIDGE AMPLIFIES IN THE MIDWEST AND MIGRATES EAST THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS WILL UNFORTUNATELY PROLONG THE HEAT WAVE AS LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES BETWEEN 1430-1440 METERS AND H85 TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO HOVER AROUND 22C...INDICATIVE OF HIGHS FROM 95 TO 100
EACH DAY. LOWS WILL BE PERSISTENCE...GENERALLY IN THE 72-76 RANGE.
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECASTING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE TRIGGERS
IN NORTHWEST FLOW AT THIS TIME RANGE...BUT EXPECT STRONG DIURNAL
HEATING TO FIRE CONVECTION IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED
AREAS...IN THE FAR WEST ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND ALONG
COASTAL SECTIONS WITH INLAND PENETRATION OF SEABREEZE.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...
A LINGERING ARC OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL NC AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.
OUTSIDE OF THIS CONVECTION WITH ITS ASSOCIATED LOCAL VSBY AND CIG
RESTRICTIONS... MOST OF CENTRAL NC SHOULD EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FOG OR SHALLOW STRATUS IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE DAYBREAK AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS RELAX.
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH A
VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS. DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATE
MORNING WITH ANOTHER STORMY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING EXPECTED. THE
STORMS WILL INITIALLY BE MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE TRIAD AREA AND
TRANSITION EASTWARD AS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. THE CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY
DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATE IN THE EVENING ALTHOUGH SOME
PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY.
LOOKING BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY MAY
FEATURE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE BEFORE MORE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING STORMS ARRIVE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. -BLAES
&&
.CLIMATE...
REC
REC HI
DAY MAX YR MIN YR
RDU RECORDS
06/19 102 1944 73 2010
06/20 102 1887 77 1924
06/21 101 1933 75 1933
GSO RECORDS
06/19 100 1944 77 1970
06/20 100 1924 75 2009
06/21 100 1933 75 1924
FAY RECORDS
06/19 102 1944 75 1948
06/20 102 1970 77 2009
06/21 105 1933 74 1999
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ042-043-077-078-085-086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...BLAES
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...BLAES
CLIMATE...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
154 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH HUMIDITY AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE HEAT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY
BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1100 PM THURSDAY...PATTERN REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FROM
THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH A LARGE RIDGE OVERHEAD THAT IS SOMEWHAT
TEMPERED BY A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
SEVERAL UPPER IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE PERIPHERY. AT THE
SURFACE...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE...BUT
ONCE AGAIN A THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT IS DRIVING
CONVECTION IN WHAT IS STILL A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE.
ALTHOUGH THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE IS QUITE WORKED OVER FROM EARLIER
STORMS...THE RESIDUAL LAYER IS MAINTAINING STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM
EXTREME SURFACE HEATING THIS AFTN...AND ONCE AGAIN SMALL
DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL TAP THIS AND DRIVE TSTMS OVERNIGHT. AS WINDS
HAVE VEERED AROUND TO THE SW ONCE AGAIN...IT APPEARS THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH IS REDEVELOPING EVEN AT THIS LATE HOUR...AND AN EXPANSIVE
AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS FIRED WEST OF THE CWA. MOST OF THIS
SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...BUT A FEW STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-95...WHERE CHC POP IS CARRIED FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED...AND THE NSSL WRF AND HRRR SHOW A MOSTLY DRY NIGHT LOCALLY.
TEMPS WILL AGAIN STAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL...AND MINS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
REACHED MOST PLACES WHERE RAIN-COOLED AIR DEVELOPED LATE IN THE EVE.
TEMPS WILL BE STEADY OR EVEN RISE A BIT OVERNIGHT...RANGING FROM
75-80.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE WELL
INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY AS SURFACE FEATURES...INCREASING MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY COME INTO PLAY. WITH MID TO UPPER RIDGE STILL IN
PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...JUST BARELY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE FORECAST
AREA ON FRIDAY WHILE THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL PUSH
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE SEABREEZE AND ANY LINGERING BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS DAYS
CONVECTION. INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON...A MORE EASTWARD TRACK OF
REMNANTS OF BILL...NOW A SHORTWAVE...BECOMES EVIDENT IN LATEST
GUIDANCE...WITH A TRACK ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER. AS THIS
OCCURS...WILL SEE THE UPPER RIDGE COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING
FOR THE PREDOMINANT FLOW TO CONTINUE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. WITH
THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE PUSHING INLAND...EXPECT MAJORITY OF THE
MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE CONVECTION TO REMAIN INLAND...THOUGH
CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE COAST. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACHING JUST OVER THE 2 INCH MARK EACH
DAY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD AMOUNT TO AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH GIVE OR TAKE...WHICH FALLS IN LINE WITH CURRENT WPC QPF
FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY 12Z.
A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...WHILE COULD SEE CONDITIONS MET AGAIN ON SATURDAY. THERE
WILL BE A BIT OF RELIEF IN ACTUAL TEMPERATURES THOUGH...TRENDING A
FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN HAVE SEEN IN PAST DAYS WITH LOW TO MID 90S
ALONG THE COAST AND MID 90S INLAND. THIS IS A RESULT OF THE AREA
LOOSING THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE...ALONG WITH ANTICIPATED
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN COOLED AIR FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...EXPECT MID 70S EACH NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...THE THEME FOR THE EXTENDED REMAINS THE
SAME...HOT AND MOSTLY DRY AS THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
WILL BE DOMINATED BY DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE. THE AXIS OF THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE WILL TAKE ON A SLIGHT NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TILT FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GULF COAST. WITH THIS
CONFIGURATION...THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS THE AREA COULD BE ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN OCCASIONAL MCS OR TWO BUT THESE ARE ALL
BUT IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HAVE MAINTAINED
THE MOSTLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH A SLIGHT NOD TO A DIURNAL
PATTERN. THE LATEST MEX NUMBERS HAVE COOLED SLIGHTLY SO THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE...NOT WANTING TO JUMP ON A COOLING TREND WITHOUT MORE
CONSISTENCY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...ATTM...RESIDUAL AND DYING TSRA AND SHRA CONTINUES TO
AFFECT SOUTHEAST NC AND NORTHEAST SC. A DISSIPATING TREND WILL
CONTINUE AND SHOULD SEE ALL TERMINALS IN THE CLEAR BY 08Z. THERE
IS A REMOTE CHANCE OF TEMPO MVFR VSBYS FROM BR AT KFLO/KLBT DURING
THESE PRE-DAWN HOURS IF SKIES CLEAR OUT AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT
ENOUGH. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AND WILL HOLD OFF FROM PLACING IT
IN THE TAFS. OVERALL...WINDS WILL RECOVER AND BECOME GENERALLY
FROM THE SSW-WSW DIRECTION LESS THAN 6 KTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE OVERNIGHT. AFTER DAYLIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME WSW AT 5 TO 10
KT ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. BY EARLY AFTN...THE COASTAL TERMS WILL
SEE WINDS BACK TO THE S-SSW 10-15 KT AS A RESULT OF THE SEA
BREEZE.
ONCE THE ATMOSPHERE DE-STABILIZES BY MIDDAY FRI AND WITH NUMEROUS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE FA FROM YESTERDAYS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY...SHRA/TSRA WILL LIKELY RE-FIRE BY EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON
FRI AND CONTINUE INTO FRI EVENING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH
MAINLY VFR. LESSER CHANCES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 PM THURSDAY...BERMUDA HIGH HAS RE-ESTABLISHED ITSELF
AFTER CONVECTION THIS EVENING CAUSED MESOSCALE CHANGES TO THE WINDS
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. AS THIS OCCURS...SW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TO 10-15 KTS...AND THEN PERSIST AT THESE SPEEDS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEAS WHICH LIKELY BECAME
CHOPPY WITH THE MYRIAD BOUNDARIES AND WIND SHIFTS EARLIER...WILL RE-
ATTAIN THE PREDOMINANT SW WIND CHOP...WITH SEAS 2-3 FT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...A SFC BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
THE DECLINING INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
SFC TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE AT TIMES. INTO SATURDAY MORNING...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH WINDS AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS.
EXPECT SEAS TO RANGE BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS BASICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT
SOME INCREASE BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS VIA A SLIGHTLY
ENHANCED NOCTURNAL JET BUT THIS SHOULD JUST ADD A KNOT OR TWO TO
THE WIND SPEEDS. SEAS ARE MOSTLY 2-4 FEET.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053-055.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NCZ087-096-099-105-107-109.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SGL
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SGL
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DCH/MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
332 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
A BAND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION IS FORMING IN CENTRAL INTO NE ND
EARLY THIS MORNING THE HRRR AND OTHER CAM MODELS HAVE THIS WELL IN
HAND...AND EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO MOVE/DEVELOP INTO
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN VALLEY THROUGH THIS
MORNING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE
FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE EXACT DETAILS ARE ALWAYS
CHALLENGING WITH CONVECTION...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...EXPECT A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION THROUGH THE MORNING IN THE NORTH. THERE WILL BE
INCREASING INSTABILITY THROUGH THE DAY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
VALLEY. MODELS HINT AT SOME RE-DEVELOPMENT IN THE NORTH AND
WESTERN FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SFC CAPE AROUND 2000
J/KG. IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...ALTHOUGH ANY AREAS
THAT HEAT OUT TODAY WITH TDS INCREASING WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.
DEEP LAYERED SHEAR THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE STRONG...AROUND
50KT...SO ANY STORMS THAT FORM IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA COULD BE
SUPERCELLULAR INITIALLY. THERE SHOULD BE A LARGER SEVERE TYPE MCS
MOVING FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS INTO THE SOUTHERN VALLEY...OR VERY
CLOSE...LATER TONIGHT FROM 6Z-12Z. THIS WILL BE FED BY A STRONG
LLJ AROUND 50KT AND PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES ON THE GFS AND NAM.
WILL MENTION SEVERE IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA 18Z-06Z...THEN IN THE
SOUTHERN FA 6Z-12Z WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE HERE ALSO.
FOR SATURDAY...THERE WILL BE INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ACTIVE W/NW FLOW ALOFT. THE OVERALL LACK
OF STRONGER FORCING/CONVERGENCE SHOULD LEAD TO ISOLATED COVERAGE
FOR ANY AFTERNOON STORMS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
ON SUNDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN FORECAST
AREA BY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE ABOUT 1500 J/KG OF SFC CAPE AHEAD
OF THE WAVE...AND STRONG DEEP SHEAR AROUND 55KT. THE MAIN THING
WILL BE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE...AND SPC HAS INTRODUCED A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY FOR
FATHERS DAY.
MONDAY TO THURSDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED WITH ZONAL TO NW
FLOW ALOFT WITH PERIODIC SHORT WAVES AND FROPAS PUSHING ACROSS THE
AREA. TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE WAVES WITH WHERE AND WHEN TO
INCREASE OR DECREASE POPS IS TOO UNCERTAIN OTHER THAN MAKE A CHC
MENTION FOR MOST OF THE AREAS EVERYDAY IN THE EXTENDED. THE
EXCEPTION IS MONDAY WITH A DRY DAY EXPECTED AS A WEAK SFC HIGH IS
PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK
WITH UPP70S TO NEAR 80 FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL TURN MORE
SOUTHERLY LATER IN THE PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
THE DAKOTAS. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS STILL PROGGED TO CROSS THE
AREA GENERATING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AROUND 12Z...AND MADE
MENTION IN THE TAFS. CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER INCREASING A BIT FOR
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THE
FA...WITH BEST CHANCES AFTER THE 00Z TIME FRAME.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...JK/DK
AVIATION...HOPKINS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
317 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
EARLY THIS MORNING A COMPLEX OF SEVERE STORMS WAS MOVING ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF NORTH DAKOTA.
LOCATIONS ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN AND
LIGHTNING...BUT THE MAIN STORM WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH.
OTHERWISE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY FORMING ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA ON THE NOSE OF A POTENT LOW LEVEL JET. THIS
ACTIVITY WAS PICKED UP WELL BY THE HRRR AND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SEVERE
CHANCES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS SKIES SHOULD CLEAR AND LEAD TO
PLENTY OF AFTERNOON HEATING.
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. INITIAL STORMS COULD
RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND BECOME SUPERCELLULAR WITH 2K+ CAPE...50
KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE FORCING
PROVIDED BY A SURFACE LOW AND APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. INITIAL THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WOULD BE VERY LARGE
HAIL...A FEW TORNADOES...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND DAMAGING WIND.
CONVECTIVE MODELS (WRFS) THEN INDICATE MERGING OF CELLS INTO A
LINE SEGMENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE EXACTLY THIS POTENTIAL LINE WOULD
DEVELOP/MOVE. THE NSSL WRF SHOWS THE BULK OF THE LINE QUICKLY
DIVING INTO SOUTH DAKOTA...FOLLOWING A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE THIS
EARLY MORNING`S COMPLEX. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT
WITH AN EVENING/OVERNIGHT SQUALL LINE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN ACTIVE
PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
ON SATURDAY...A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. 19 JUN 00 UTC ECMWF/GFS MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS 20 TO
40 KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH 1000-2000J/KG
MUCAPE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING COMPARED
TO FRIDAY...BUT WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS.
ON SUNDAY A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED JET MAX TRACK
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN HIGHER BULK SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE
WITH MUCAPES AGAIN CLIMBING TO 1000-2000J/KG. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO TRAVERSE THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY...
WITH ANOTHER POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
AN ACTIVE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH NEARLY DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
IN GENERAL...EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S AND MORNING LOWS IN
THE 50S THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME SHOWERS WITH A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING NEAR KISN/KMOT. A
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA SHOULD STAY
WELL TO THE SOUTH OF KDIK. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME STORMS BECOMING SEVERE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
249 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.DISCUSSION...
THE CENTER OF BILL HAS EXITED THE TULSA COUNTY WARNING AREA AND IS NOW
CENTERED OVER FAR EASTERN JOHNSON COUNTY ARKANSAS. MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES
TO WRAP AROUND BILL AND AFFECT NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AT THIS HOUR. WILL
KEEP FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE THROUGH 12Z. MAY TRIM THE OKLAHOMA COUNTIES
OUT OF THE WATCH PRIOR TO THE ISSUANCE OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WILL KEEP
SOME POPS THROUGH 18Z FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE HRRR HAS THE
BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK....THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE
BIG STORY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. THE HUMIDITY WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN HOTTER.
HOWEVER...BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR NOW.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY SNEAK INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RETROGRADES TO THE
WEST...RESULTING IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...
THIS OCCURS JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 88 73 93 76 / 10 0 10 10
FSM 86 72 94 73 / 30 10 10 10
MLC 87 71 90 75 / 10 10 10 0
BVO 88 69 94 72 / 0 0 10 10
FYV 81 64 89 70 / 40 10 10 10
BYV 79 66 91 71 / 70 10 10 10
MKO 86 70 90 73 / 10 10 10 10
MIO 84 69 92 74 / 10 0 10 10
F10 87 71 90 74 / 10 10 10 10
HHW 89 71 90 73 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY FOR OKZ058-OKZ063-OKZ068-
OKZ069.
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
247 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.UPDATE...
ADDED PRECIP/WX TO W/NW OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING...
&&
.DISCUSSION...
AN ISOLATED AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A NARROW
AXIS OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT ACROSS THE NERN TX/ERN OK
PANHANDLES THIS MORNING. OVERALL... FOR THE PAST HOUR... THIS
ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED FAIRLY STATIONARY. HOWEVER... RECENT RUNS OF
THE HRRR SUGGEST A FEW STORMS MAY DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO W/NW
OK AS THE SFC/MID-LVL TROUGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH
SUNRISE. GIVEN MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND MINIMAL CIN... HAVE
NO QUALMS WITH THE HRRR SOLUTION... EXCEPT IT MAY BE A TAD
AGGRESSIVE. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS THROUGH SUNRISE... WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE THROUGH MID MORNING.
JTK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 929 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015/
DISCUSSION...
HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF RAIN/STORMS FOR TONIGHT THROUGHOUT OUR
FORECAST AREA. IT APPEARS THAT SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING
TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION OVER OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES THIS EVENING...AND THAT THE TEXAS PANHANDLE CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHWEST...AWAY FROM OUR AREA. SEVERAL
MODELS DO SHOW SOME RAIN IN OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES LATE
TONIGHT...BUT THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY ACTUAL MECHANISM TO
BRING THAT ABOUT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY HINTS THAT THIS WILL
HAPPEN...BUT WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY CHANCES AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED FOR THIS EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THE CIRCULATION WITH REMNANTS OF BILL IS JUST EAST OF FORT SMITH
THIS AFTERNOON. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE EARLY EVENING...MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF A SHAWNEE TO ADA AND DURANT LINE. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS
ARE POSSIBLE BUT OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
OTHER ISOLATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOP IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ALONG AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
SO STORM CHANCES IN FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW.
CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA. THIS COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT FOG.
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...RIDGING OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BUILD EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY
DRY WEATHER...WITH HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 89 71 92 71 / 10 10 0 0
HOBART OK 93 71 96 71 / 10 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 93 72 94 72 / 10 0 0 0
GAGE OK 91 71 96 71 / 20 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 89 73 96 75 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 90 72 91 73 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
04/17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
348 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR TODAY. STRONG MCS CURRENTLY WORKING INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE AS OF 08Z....AND IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE 13-14 Z TIME
FRAME. WHAT IS INTERESTING...IS THAT THE AIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA
IS COMPLETELY STABLE...BUT OFTEN TIMES...STRONG...WELL ESTABLISHED
MCS CAN OUTRUN THE INSTABILITY. HRRR HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH
THIS...AND RAP IS NOW BEGINNING TO TREND IN THIS DIRECTION AS WELL.
HAVE BEGUN TO TREND UPWARDS WITH POPS IN NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA IN
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...BUT TRAIL POPS OFF TO THE EAST AS COMPLEX IS
EXPECTED TO FALL APART AS IT WORKS DEEPER INTO THE STABLE AIR.
RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER WILL REDUCE HEATING POTENTIAL FOR TODAY...AND
HAVE CUT BACK HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA...WITH GREATEST
ADJUSTMENTS IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES THIS EVENING AS 35-45 KNOT LOW LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WHILE STILL CAN/T RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED STORM THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...IT DOES APPEAR THAT
THE CAP WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
MID LEVEL WAVE TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL INITIALLY TO ISOLATED AT
BEST.
MUCH BETTER FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN REACHES
OF THE STATE IN THE EVENING HOURS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. BASED ON
SHEAR AND STORM MOTION...EXPECTING STORMS TO ORGANIZE INTO A MATURE
MCS AND WORK INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA 05-07Z.
EXPECT STORMS TO BE ELEVATED...BUT WITH RELATIVELY DRY LAYER FROM
750 UP TO 300 MB...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG ORGANIZED MCS TO CREATE
DAMAGING WINDS. 0-3 KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS NEAR 30-35 KNOTS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA....INDICATING DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90. AS STORMS WORK EAST OF I-29 AFTER
9Z...SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS DECREASE AND AM EXPECTING THE
OVERALL INTENSITY TO DECREASE. WITH THAT SAID...STILL KEPT POPS IN
THE CATEGORICAL RANGE ACROSS THE NORTH CLOSEST TO THE MID LEVEL
WAVE...WITH LESSER CHANCES TO THE SOUTH ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-90 AS
ONE GETS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE MID LEVEL WAVE AND THE UPPER JET.
HAVE ADDED MENTION OF CHANCE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS TO
WEATHER GRIDS...BUT WAS LESS CONFIDENT EAST OF I-29 AND DECREASED TO
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WHERE SEVERE PARAMETERS
AND SPC OUTLOOK DECREASE.
HAVE COOLED LOWS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE CONVECTION SEEMS
LIKELY...AND LEFT TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF I-90 QUITE MILD IN THE UPPER
60S WHERE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES ARE. WITH 0-2 KM VGP AND 0-3 KM
EHI SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS...WILL KEEP MENTION OF LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN THE HWO. HAVE ALSO MENTIONED IN THE GRIDS...WITH
LESSER CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE EAST OF I-29.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
ON SATURDAY...THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SHOULD BE RAPIDLY EXITING OUR
EASTERN ZONES IN THE MORNING. FURTHERMORE...THE WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FAIRLY EARLY IN THE DAY WHICH SHOULD BUILD STORMS AWAY FROM OUR
LOCATION IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH GOOD MIXING POTENTIAL AND SOME DRY
AIR ADVECTION...HIGHS STILL LOOK WARM WITH WIDESPREAD 80S. CURRENTLY
HAVE 89 AT SIOUX CITY BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THEY HIT 90 OR
THE LOWER 90S IF THE MID AND UPPER CLOUD COVER EXITS QUICKLY ENOUGH
BY MIDDAY. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES SATURDAY NIGHT...HELPING TO GIVE
LIGHT WINDS AND WHAT SHOULD BE A DRY NIGHT. THEN ON SUNDAY...THE
VARIOUS MODELS INCLUDING THE GFS...ECMWF AND NAM SHOW A WEAK SHORT
WAVE IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF
I 29 AND NORTH OF I 90 IN OUR SOUTH DAKOTA ZONES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IS A BIT LACKING AFTER THE WIND SHIFT ON SATURDAY...BUT PLENTY OF
MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXISTS WITH SOME DECENT LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 700
AND 500MB. THEREFORE CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREA WITH LESS CHANCES ELSEWHERE.
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...SUNDAYS MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WEAKENS IN OUR
EATERN ZONES AS IT MOVES EASTWARD...REPLACED BY A STRONG SHORT WAVE
RAPIDLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND THE NORTHERN
HALF OF MINNESOTA. MOST OF THE DYNAMICS REMAINS NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...SO THEREFORE ONLY CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES.
LOWS STILL LOOK MILD...ABOUT 60 TO 65 DEGREES WITH THE WINDS
CHANGING TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE PASSAGE LATE AT NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW IN THE EXTENDED IN TERMS OF WHEN AND WHERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE. IN GENERAL...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
SHOWING AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
UNITED STATES WITH A BRISK QUASI ZONAL FLOW THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN
HALF. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN SHOULD GIVE MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S BASED ON THE
LATEST 850MB TEMPERATURES OFF OF THE LATEST ECMWF AND GFS. LOWS ARE
PRIMARILY IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S...BUT IF WE GET LIGHT WINDS
COUPLED WITH CLEAR SKIES...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF LOWS ERROR
ON THE COOL SIDE OF SUPERBLEND LOWS HERE AND THERE. DUE TO THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS WITH SPECIFIC SHORT WAVE
TIMING MOVING ACROSS THE FAST UPPER FLOW...PIN POINTING RAIN CHANCES
IS REAL PROBLEMATIC. AT THIS TIME...THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A
WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS WHERE THERE IS SOME
AGREEMENT IS IN NORTHWEST IOWA AND EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS LOOK LIKE
THEY DEVELOP A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED SHORT WAVE...THEREFORE THE SHORT
WAVE IN THAT AREA MAY BE A RESPONSE TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. VERY
DIFFICULT TO TELL THIS FAR OUT. THERE IS AN 850MB BOUNDARY CLOSE TO
NORTHWEST IOWA...AT LEAST EXTENDING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
NORTHWEST IA. SO ITS WORTH WATCHING BUT HIGH POPS ARE NOT WARRANTED
YET AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...BUT AT THIS TIME THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE DOES NOT LOOK TO HAVE A LOT OF SHOWER OR STORM ACTIVITY WITH
IT. ONE THING OF INTEREST IS THE LONGER RANGE STILL SHOWS THE UPPER
RIDGE MIGRATING AND BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES BEYOND
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THAT WOULD PUT THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN A SHORT
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1027 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MCS
ACTIVITY SLOW TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM...AND EVEN IF IT DOES...IT WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH MID-SOUTH DAKOTA BY DAYBREAK. ONLY EXPECTING A
BIT OF AN INCREASE IN MID-LVL CLOUDS INTO THE MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL
FRIDAY...WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. WHILE JUST
AT THE EDGE OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD...WATCH OUT FOR STRONG
CONVECTION AROUND 06Z SATURDAY.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...DUX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
315 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.SHORT TERM...
AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL CONTINUED TO PUSH ENEWRD ACROSS NRN AR
EARLY THIS MORNING...BROAD UA RIDGING ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS HAS
GRADUALLY EXPANDED WRD TO NEAR REGION. THUS...THE WRN PERIPHERY WAS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS SUCH...N-NW FLOW ALOFT PREVAILED
WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A WANING MCS HAVING THE CAPABILITY TO SAG SWRD
ACROSS THE TX/NM STATE LINE PER 07Z WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY.
FURTHERMORE...RADAR ANALYSIS SHOWED THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS IN THE WAKE OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TRANSLATING SE
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND TOWARDS LOCALES OFF THE CAPROCK.
ALTHOUGH THIS SCATTERED CONVECTION IS MOVING...THE RATHER MOIST
ENVIRONMENT /DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S/ HAS ALLOWED THIS ACTIVITY
TO BRIEFLY DROP MODERATE RAINFALL. A TTU MESONSET SITE LOCATED AT
REESE CENTER RECORDED A TOTAL OF 0.53 INCHES THAT OCCURRED WITH ONE
HOUR...AND AT THE NWS OFFICE...AROUND 0.70 INCHES FELL. KEEPING IN
MIND THAT MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE DONE A POOR JOB IN EVEN SHOWING THIS
MORNING/S CONVECTION...WILL ADJUST POPS IN THE PRE-FIRST PERIOD INTO
THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY OFF THE CAPROCK...GIVEN STORMS HAVE
POPPED UP ACROSS BRISCOE COUNTY. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD DEMISE IN
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND THE HRRR HINTS AT FOG DEVELOPING AND
REMAINING SOUTH OF THE CWA. WILL KEEP AN EYE OUT TO SEE IF THIS
INDEEDS OCCUR.
TODAY...THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE UA RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND EVER
SO SLIGHTLY WRD ACROSS THE REGION AND ONE WOULD EXPECT DECREASING
CHANCES FOR PRECIP. HOWEVER...THE NAM AND LONG TERM SOLUTIONS HINT
AT STORMS FIRING UP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF
NERN NM AND SERN CO THIS AFTN/EVENING. W-SW MEAN FLOW RAISES
EYEBROWS FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO POSSIBLY SHIFT TOWARDS THE CWA ONCE
AGAIN TONIGHT...HOWEVER THE MEAN FLOW IS RATHER WEAK /AOA 10 KTS/
WHICH COULD MITIGATE THIS FROM OCCURRING. WHAT IS INTERESTING TO
NOTE IS THAT HIGH-RES SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND THE TTU WRF
EXHIBITED ISOLATED-SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTN JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE ACROSS THE FA...WITH THE CAP EXPECTING TO BREAK BY LATE
AFTN. THIS IS A POSSIBILITY ESPECIALLY SINCE THE UA RIDGE IS NOT
QUITE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...HOWEVER MODELS PERFORMING POORLY AS OF
LATE DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR CONFIDENCE. WILL OPT TO RAISE POPS TO 10-
12 PERCENT WITH HIGHEST POPS NOTED ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES THIS
AFTN...AND KEEPING POPS AROUND 12 PERCENT ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES ONCE
AGAIN FOR TONIGHT. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS SEE HOW RADAR TRENDS ARE
SHAPING UP THIS AFTN AND EVENING AND WHETHER OR NOT POPS NEED TO BE
RAISED TO MENTIONABLE LEVELS. IF STORMS DO INDEED DEVELOP...MUCAPE
OF 2-2.5 KJ/KG MAY RAISE CONCERNS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS...HOWEVER RATHER WEAK 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR /LESS THAN 20 KTS/
MAY KEEP STORM STRENGTH ON THE TAME SIDE. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER DAY OF
SEASONAL WARMTH IS ON TAP /LOWER 90S/ FOLLOWED BY A MILD NIGHT
/LOWER 60S ACROSS NW TO LOWER 70S FAR EAST/.
.LONG TERM...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SWRN CONUS AND ADJACENT WATERS OFF THE
COAST OF SRN AND BAJA CALIF WILL EXPAND EWD THROUGH THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND FAIR BUT BREEZY WEATHER
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A WWD-MOVING
INVERTED UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS
WEEKEND AND ONTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NRN MEXICO TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. AS MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM SPREADS NWD INTO NEW
MEXICO AND AS A LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER CALIF
COULD SEE SOME PRECIP RETURN TO NEW MEXICO AND POSSIBLY THE SOUTH
PLAINS AND PANHANDLE. CONFIDENCE OF THIS DEVELOPMENT BY DAYS 6 AND
7 OF THE FCST TOO LOW TO INSERT PRECIP MENTION JUST YET. UNTIL
THEN WARM AND DRY WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS FCST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 90 64 92 63 / 10 10 0 0
TULIA 91 66 92 65 / 10 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 91 65 91 65 / 10 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 93 65 92 66 / 10 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 93 66 92 68 / 10 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 91 63 92 64 / 10 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 92 65 92 66 / 10 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 94 70 95 70 / 10 0 0 0
SPUR 94 68 93 67 / 10 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 95 70 94 70 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
29/07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1136 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2015
.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
Little change made to the previous set of TAFs. Low level
moisture is still expected to return northward, resulting in MVFR
CIGs at southern locations. Thunderstorms from earlier may delay
these low clouds somewhat, but should not keep them from making
progress north later tonight. By mid to late morning, all sites
should scatter out to VFR conditions with only scattered cumulus
affecting the area tomorrow afternoon, but no SHRA or TSRA
expected tomorrow. We may see a few gusts near 15 knots during the
afternoon at southern sites.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 808 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2015/
UPDATE...
Made a quick update to the forecast to carry higher rain chances
across our far southeastern counties this evening, and to include
a mention of locally heavy rainfall. Scattered, slow moving showers
and thunderstorms are occurring southeast of a Sonora to Brady line.
Outflow boundary emanating from this convection is moving slowly to
the northwest, and some new development is possible along and behind
this outflow boundary. Expect this shower and thunderstorms activity
to dissipate prior to 11 PM tonight.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2015/
AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
VFR conditions currently prevail across the area. There are a few
isolated showers and thunderstorms near KSOA, KJCT, and KBBD, so
will have a mention of VCTS for this activity through the evening
hours. Otherwise, expect MVFR to possibly IFR conditions to
develop after 06Z again tonight, mainly for the four southern
terminals. Just mentioned a SCT020 group for KABI as they will
probably be too far north for low clouds again. Light and
variable or light southerly winds can be expected. 20
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2015/
SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)
Bill remnants well to the northeast, with a weak shear axis draped
from the Hill Country northeast into the center of Bill. Have
continued to see scattered showers and storms across the Hill
Country and these should continue. Both the HRRR and the TTU WRF to
a lesser extent show a little convection developing later this
afternoon across much of the remainder of the area. Will continue
the mention of a few isolated showers and storms for a few hours
this evening. A few storms possible again on Friday afternoon across
the southeast as the shear axis slowly erodes, but rain chances at
most locations will be so small that will not mention in the
forecast. Otherwise, warm and humid air mass in place with surface
dewpoints hanging near 70 in most locations.
LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Thursday)
Upper high pressure will continue to build eastward over the
southwestern states this weekend as an inverted upper trough
expands into south Texas from northern Mexico. There is a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms associated with the Mexican
disturbance over the Interstate 10 corridor Saturday afternoon
and through Saturday night. The presence of the Mexican upper low
will keep a slight chance of rainfall over primarily the southern
portions of the forecast area south of Interstate 20 through
Monday night. As the center of the upper high pressure area moves
east over the southern Plains late Monday the upper inverted
trough will be deflected to our west as will any associated
rainfall. The forecast will therefore remain dry Monday through
Thursday.
Temperatures will remain seasonal with afternoon highs in the
upper 80s to the lower 90s and morning lows around 70.
15
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 71 91 72 91 72 / 10 10 5 5 5
San Angelo 71 90 70 89 70 / 10 10 5 5 10
Junction 70 87 71 87 71 / 40 20 10 20 20
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1247 AM MDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2015
UPDATED THIS EVENINGS FORECAST AND 00Z AVIATION FORECAST PACKAGE.
HAD ONE STRONG TSTORM WHICH DEVELOPED WEST OF WHEATLAND AND
DISSIPATED JUST WEST OF CHUGWATER. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY OTHER
ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...BUT KEPT POP NEAR 20 PERCENT EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA SINCE THERE MAY
BE SOME OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THAT STORM. OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE
A MOSTLY CLEAR AND QUIET NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2015
A RELENTLESS PERIOD OF SEVERE WEATHER FINALLY APPEARS TO BE COMING
TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS CONTRIBUTING
TO STRONG CAPPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS...AND ANY LARGER SCALE
FORCING MECHANISMS ARE LIMITED. RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
YESTERDAYS CONVECTION...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACROSS LARAMIE COUNTY
FROM MORNING STRATUS...AND WEAK LLVL UPSLOPE WILL BE THE FOCI FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR SHOWS ONE OR TWO STORMS
ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE AFTER 20Z...BUT THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS HAVE
SHOWN VIRTUALLY NO DEVELOPMENT OR EASTWARD PROGRESS. WILL MAINTAIN
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER OVER THE PLAINS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
THAT ANYWHERE EAST OF I25 WILL SEE MUCH. IF STORMS DEVELOP...THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS IS VERY MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 55-65 F
RANGE. MUCAPES OF 2500-3500 J/KG COMBINED WITH AVERAGE 0-6 KM SHEAR
VALUES AROUND 30 KTS WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...SO DO NOT SEE A GOOD
REASON TO REMOVE SEVERE WORDING. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...NOCTURNAL
SOUTHERLY LLVL/H85 JET WILL CRANK UP OVER WESTERN NEB. CANNOT RULE
OUT AN ELEVATED STORM LATE...BUT THINK THIS FEATURE WILL BE FEEDING
AN MCS WELL TO THE NORTH OVER WESTERN SD. IT WILL BE BREEZY TONIGHT
ALONG THE PINE RIDGE IN DAWES/SIOUX COUNTIES.
A TOASTY AFTERNOON FOR FRIDAY WITH THE GFS/NAM/ECM/GEM ALL SHOWING
H7 TEMPS AROUND 17-18 DEG C AND 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES AROUND
585 DM OVER THE PLAINS. DESPITE LLVL CONVERGENCE ALONG A STRONG SFC
TROUGH/DRYLINE ALONG THE WYO/NEB BORDER...WARM AIR ALOFT AND LARGER
SCALE RIDGING WILL SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION. SUBSIDENCE SHOULD SUPPORT
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS WELL. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH AFTERNOON CUMULUS
WE SEE...NEAR RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE WITH UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 F
OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. IN ADDITION...THIS IS A GREAT PATTERN
FOR NIGHTLY MCS COMPLEXES OVER NORTHEAST WY AND WESTERN SD...SO WE
CANNOT RULE OUT NIGHT TIME OR EARLY AM CONVECTION ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHERN ZONES...MOVING IN FROM NEIGHBORING CWAS. OTHERWISE WE CAN
ENJOY A PLEASANT...ALBEIT WARM AFTERNOON/EVENING FREE OF ANY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. COOLER ON SAT WITH A COLD FROPA...ALONG
WITH A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THE DAY 3 OUTLOOK
FROM SPC HAS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA IN A MRGNL RISK...WHICH SEEMS
APPROPRIATE WITH THE NAM SHOWING STRONG INSTABILITY AND GOOD SHEAR
BENEATH 50 KT FLOW AT H5. COULD SEE THE RISK CATEGORY BEING BUMPED
UP IN THE FUTURE DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF FORCING/CAPPING. KEPT
POPS ISOLATED FOR NOW...BUT EXPECT A REVISION UPWARDS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2015
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE IS HOW
MUCH CAP WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK.
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS SHOWING DRIER AIR STARTING TO PUSH
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING THAT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH WEAK TROFS MOVING
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL RESULT IN A MORE ZONAL PATTERN
OVER OUR REGION THROUGH THE WEEK.
SATURDAY NIGHT: THIS TIMEFRAME APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN
AS A STRONG (90-100KT) JET AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
WYOMING. THIS JET WILL PROVIDE STRONG WINDS ALOFT. IN
ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO EAST-
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL RESULT IN ADVECTION OF
DEEPER MOISTURE WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40 TO 50KTS.
ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD GENERALLY TRACK
WEST TO EAST AT AROUND 15 TO 20KTS WITH RIGHT MOVING SUPERCELLS
TRACKING SOUTHEAST AT 15KTS. WE ARE A BIT WORRIED THAT THIS
CONVECTION MAY TRY TO SLOW DOWN LATE SATURDAY EVENING AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET INCREASES TO AROUND 30 TO 35 KTS WHICH MAY YIELD TO
BACKBUILDING STORMS AND POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL.
SUNDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT: THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IS
BUILDING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIGHTLY OVER OUR REGION. THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT SOME GOOD CAPPING OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL RESULT
IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED CONVECTION. THIS SHOULD ALSO
ALLOW FOR SOILS TO DRY OUT. CANNOT RULE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION
ON TUESDAY AS THE CAP BEGINS TO WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO WEAK
POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY:
THE GFS SHOWS A POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY PUSHING THROUGH
NORTHERN MONTANA AND SOUTHERN CANADA ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THIS WAVE BUT SHOWS MORE RIDGING
BUILDING OVER INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...AND PROVIDES MORE TROFFING OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EITHER WAY...THIS MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO A WEAKER CAP ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM MDT FRI JUN 19 2015
IFR-MVFR STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
TONIGHT AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID-MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL REMAIN GUSTY OVER THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF
LATE FRIDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING OUT
WEST IN THE MORNING AS WELL. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK
MINIMAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A STRONG MIDLEVEL CAP IN PLACE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2015
VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL FALL TO
BETWEEN 10 AND 20 PERCENT...WITH WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 25 MPH
ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND SATURDAY...POSSIBLY SEVERE. WINDS COULD BE
GUSTY AND ERRATIC NEAR CONVECTION.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TJT/JG
SHORT TERM...REC
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...CLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
938 AM MDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 AM MDT FRI JUN 19 2015
REMOVED MORNING FOG AND LOADED IN LATEST OBSERVATION
DATA...UPDATED FIRE WEATHER GRIDS FOR TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT FRI JUN 19 2015
ZONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER CO GETS FLATTENED AS ENERGY ENTERING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TRANSLATES ACROSS WY AND MT LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. LEE TROF STRENGTHS ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND MIXING
OUT SFC DEW POINTS. QUESTION WILL BE...BY HOW MUCH. EARLY MORNING
RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE QUITE DRY WITH AFTERNOON DEW POINTS DROPPING
INTO THE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...WITH 20S ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS. GFS AND RAP13 AGREE...BUT NAM12...AND NMM AND ARW
KEEP DEW POINTS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS. GIVEN
ALL THE RAINFALL LATELY...HAVE SIDED WITH THESE MOISTER RUNS...WHICH
LEANS FORECAST TOWARDS THE SLIGHTLY COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE VALUES.
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO A DEGREE OR
TWO WARMER.
ALL MODELS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED
TODAY...AND WITH DRIER AIR SPREADING INTO THE MOUNTAIN AREAS...THIS
LOOKS REASONABLE. RETAINED GENERALLY ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...THOUGH SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS AND NRN RATON MESA
REGION MAY SEE SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE...SO HAVE SCATTERED POPS
DOWN THAT WAY. CAPES LOOK FAIRLY LIMITED ACROSS THE MTS/I-25
CORRIDOR REGION. ONE AREA TO WATCH WILL BE FAR EASTERN PLAINS WHERE
HIGHER DEW POINTS ALONG AND EAST OF A DRY LINE COULD RESULT IN CAPE
VALUES OF AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE PRETTY WEAK
THOUGH WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY...SO IF STORMS CAN FIRE
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...THEY SHOULD BE PULSE IN NATURE...WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS WELL...BUT THIS THREAT SHOULD
BE HIGHLY LOCALIZED. OTHERWISE...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES. -KT
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT FRI JUN 19 2015
...HOT AND DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE ONGOING TREND FOR THE LONG TERM. AN UPPER RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE DESERT SW OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN
SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE REGION AND INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
U.S. BY TUE. THIS WILL KEEP HOT AND PREDOMINANTLY DRY CONDITIONS IN
PLACE FOR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUE...WITH MAX TEMPS EACH DAY IN
THE 90S TO NEAR 100F FOR THE PLAINS...AND 80S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.
ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION...MAINLY HIGH BASED...IS EXPECTED EACH
DAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF A WETTING RAIN
BUT A BETTER CHANCE FOR GUSTY WINDS. BEGINNING LATE TUE EVE...BOTH
THE GFS AND EC MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF A
MONSOON-LIKE TAP OF MOISTURE DEVELOPING...GIVING THE CWA A BETTER
SHOT AT SOME PCPN. MOORE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT FRI JUN 19 2015
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS WILL SEE LOCAL IFR/LIFR
CIGS/VIS DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...WHICH
COULD AFFECT THE KCOS TAF SITE. BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE
TRENDS...WILL CARRY THIS IN A TEMPO GROUP THROUGH 13Z. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY FOR THE TAF SITES WITH WITH SPEEDS UNDER
15 KTS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS TODAY AND BE SPOTTIER IN COVERAGE THAN THE PAST FEW
DAYS. WILL NOT INCLUDE VCTS IN THE TAFS SINCE THESE ARE NOT LIKELY
TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1005 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND MAY
TRIGGER AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS CT...RI AND
SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE IN MASSACHUSETTS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY
AND COOLER WEATHER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT SWEEPING
FROM THE N AND THE REMNANTS OF ONCE TROPICAL STORM BILL MOVING IN
FROM THE SOUTH WILL MAKE FOR A WET SUNDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF WET-
WEATHER IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY PRIOR TO COOLER AND DRY
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WARMER AND WET CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO RETURN TO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM UPDATE...
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND DISCUSSION SPOT ON. THUS ONLY MINOR TWEAKS
TO CLOUD COVER FORECAST BASED ON BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST PER LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY. EXPECTING CLOUDS TO ERODE AS MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH ENTERING MAINE LATE THIS MORNING MOVES INTO THE
MARITIMES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SWITCH MID LEVEL FLOW OVER NEW
ENGLAND FROM WEAKLY CYCLONIC TO MORE ZONAL...PROVIDING LESS LIFT
TO SUPPORT CLOUD COVER. THUS EXPECTING INCREASING SUNSHINE AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES.
MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AND WARM WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE
LOW AND MID 80S AWAY FROM THE SHORELINE WHERE A SEABREEZE IS
POSSIBLE. A LOW RISK FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDER POSSIBLE...ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. HOWEVER
AS MENTIONED ABOVE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS WEAK. IN ADDITION WINDS
ALOFT AT 925 MB AND 850 MB ARE FROM THE WEST. SO AS SOLAR HEATING
DEEPENS BLYR AND WINDS MIX DOWN FROM ALOFT...SURFACE WINDS WILL
TREND TO THE WEST EVEN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LIMIT
SURFACE CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER IF A SEABREEZE BOUNDARY CAN PENETRATEINTO
THE COASTAL PLAIN THIS COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND/OR A
T-STORM.
OTHER LIMITING FACTOR AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER NOTED IS LACK OF
INSTABILITY. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS ONLY GENERATING 400-800J/KG
OF CAPE ALONG WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL LIMIT
UPDRAFT POTENTIAL. SO DESPITE MODEST TO STRONG WINDS ALOFT
PROVIDING GOOD DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED AND CONFINED TO CT/RI AND SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE IN MASSACHUSETTS. THEREFORE MUCH OF THE REGION
REMAINS DRY TODAY. ONLY CONCERN WILL BE AT SOUTH COASTAL BEACHES
FOR THE LOW THREAT OF LIGHTNING. OTHERWISE A VERY NICE DAY BY LATE
JUNE STANDARDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE S ACROSS SNE THIS MORNING. AS THE FRONT
PUSHES S CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO PT-MOSUNNY SKIES FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS PERSISTING THE LONGEST
ALONG THE S COAST.
COLD FRONT APPEARS TO GET HUNG UP NEAR THE SOUTH COAST 18-21Z
BEFORE MOVING S OF NEW ENG BY 00Z. MODELS DO GENERATE MARGINAL SFC
INSTABILITY NEAR THE FRONT WITH SBCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG WITHIN LOW
LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS SO POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
TSTM THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS RI AND SE MA.
TIMING OF DRIER AIR AND FALLING DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S WILL BE
CRITICAL TO THE INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT. IF THE
DRIER AIR IS DELAYED AND DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 60S INTO THE
AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE A GREATER CHANCE OF CONVECTION BUT IF
THESE LOWER DEWPOINTS MOVE IN QUICKER THIS WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE
TSTM DEVELOPMENT.
MODELS ALL GENERATE SOME CONVECTIVE PRECIP IN THE COASTAL PLAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND HRRR IS TARGETING RI AND SE MA SO WE HAVE CHC
POPS FOCUSED ACROSS NE CT...RI AND SE MA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
QUITE IMPRESSIVE AROUND 40-50 KT SO ANY CONVECTION WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY. CANT RULE OUT A STRONG TSTM BUT THINK MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG STORMS.
850 MB TEMPS 12-14C AND WITH DEVELOPING SUNSHINE AND NW WINDS IT
WILL BE A WARM DAY WITH HIGHS REACHING LOW TO MID 80S...EXCEPT 70S
ALONG THE COAST AND OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN WESTERN AND N MA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
A LINGERING SHOWER IS POSSIBLE EARLY EVENING ALONG THE S COAST
WITH THE FRONT...OTHERWISE COOLER AND DRIER POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS
OVERSPREADS THE REGION AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. CLEARING SKIES
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES BUT CLOUDS MAY LINGER DURING THE
NIGHT ALONG THE S COAST WHERE SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. MINS
MOSTLY IN THE 50S BUT SOME 40S POSSIBLE IN NORTH CENTRAL AND W MA.
SATURDAY...
HIGH PRES IN CONTROL AS IT MOVES E OF NEW ENG. EXPECT INCREASING
AFTERNOON CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY W NEW ENG. NAM APPEARS TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH RETUNING MOISTURE AND SHOWERS SO THIS WAS
DISCOUNTED AS HIGH PRES MAINTAINS DRIER AIR WITH HIGHER THETA-E
AIR REMAINING TO THE WEST. COOLER TEMPS IN THE 70S WITH SEABREEZES
LIKELY HOLDING TEMPS NEAR 70 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
- STILL LOOKING WET FOR SUNDAY WITH THE REMNANTS OF TS BILL
- SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT OUTCOMES
- WET-WEATHER IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
- UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DRY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
- A RETURN OF WARMER-WET CONDITIONS BY THE END OF THE WEEK
DISCUSSION...
A FORECAST THAT CONTINUES TO WOBBLE WITH RESPECT TO TWO WEATHER
DISTURBANCES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING: 1. REMNANTS OF TS
BILL AND 2. STRETCHED PACIFIC-ORIGIN ENERGY THROUGH THE QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW.
OF CERTAINTY REMNANTS OF TS BILL ARE ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH THETA-E
AIR / +2-INCH PWATS AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOCUSED ALONG THE NOSE
OF A H925-85 LLJ ALONG ITS E-PERIPHERY OF CYCLONIC FLOW. IT IS
WITHIN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENT NOSE THERE IS A EXPECTATION
OF A GOOD SLUG OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A MOIST-ADIABATIC PROFILE WITH HIGH FREEZING-
LEVEL HEIGHTS. SUCH ANTICIPATED OUTCOMES COULD YIELD THE POSSIBILITY
OF NUISANCE/URBAN/POOR-DRAINAGE FLOODING ALBEIT NOT AS CATASTROPHIC
AS WHAT HAS BEEN WITNESSED UPSTREAM ACROSS TX / OK AS THE FLOW IS
PROGRESSIVE AND REMNANTS ARE BEING SWEPT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE ZONAL-FLOW REGIME.
BUT UNCERTAIN IS THE EXACT TRACK OF THE REMNANTS WHICH CONTINUE TO
WOBBLE AND HOW IT INTERACTS WITH THE NEIGHBORING N-STREAM IMPULSE.
WHILE THE TRACK HAS WOBBLED WITHIN THE LATEST FORECAST RUNS THERE IS
ALSO THE QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
CAN CONNECT WITH THE RRQ OF THE NEIGHBORING UPPER-LEVEL-JET N. THERE
DOES SEEM TO BE SOME LEVEL OF DIFFLUENCE TO SUPPORT DEEP-LAYER LIFT
AND UPSLOPING-OVERRUNNING MOISTURE. THE TIMING MAYBE PERHAPS OFF
SUCH THAT TROPICAL REMNANTS OF BILL MAY BE LIMITED IN THEIR REACH N.
PERHAPS NOT. THIS IN ADDITION THAT BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF ASCENT THERE
HAS TO BE AN AREA OF DESCENT/SINKING AIR. THERE HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT A
CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE NE-CONUS OF LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT BETWEEN THE UNPHASED DISTURBANCES.
SOME UNCERTAINTIES TO PONDER...BUT NEVERTHELESS WILL KEEP WITH A WET
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF TS BILL SLIDE S AND A COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH FROM THE N AND W TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING. WILL
MAINTAIN HIGHER POPS ALONG THE S-HALF OF S NEW ENGLAND. MAIN THREAT
IS HEAVY RAIN WITH LESSER CHANCES OF THUNDER. BUT THIS COULD BE A
SWING AND A MISS PER THE 19.0Z GFS AND ECMWF.
THEREAFTER...NOT LOOKING SUMMER-LIKE. MID-LEVEL ENERGY THROUGH THE
ZONAL-FLOW REGIME IS SHUNTED S GRADUALLY BY A POLAR-ORIGIN WAVE OUT
OF THE HUDSON BAY REGION SWEEPING +8-10C H85 AIR ACROSS THE REGION.
SO AN INITIAL IMPULSE OF WET-WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK-SYNOPTIC
LOW IS ANTICIPATED MONDAY NIGHT. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS AND JUST
SHOWERS. COULD SEE RENEWED ACTIVITY TUESDAY WITH THE ENVIRONMENT
DESTABILIZING MAINLY ACROSS THE N AND W INTERIOR PRIOR TO A STRONG
COLD FRONT DIGGING S PUSHING THE BETTER MOIST-CONVERGENT FLOW REGIME
W TO E ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC TEMPERATURES. LOOKING AT BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY. IN THE END
COULD PERHAPS SEE A CHILLY MONTH OF JUNE OF WHICH TEMPS PRESENTLY
ARE AVERAGING 3 DEGREES BELOW-NORMAL THROUGH THE 18TH.
AS THE POLAR-WAVE RETREATS BACK N TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WILL
SEE THE RETURN OF WARMER AIR AND AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN PER A
CONSENSUS OF FORECAST GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
14Z UPDATE...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO 12Z TAFS. ANY ISOLATED
SHOWER/T-STORM WILL BE CONFINED TO CT/RI AND SOUTH OF THE MASS
PIKE IN MASSACHUSETTS THIS AFTERNOON. MOST TERMINALS REMAIN DRY.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
==================================================================
TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EARLY IFR/MVFR ERODE AND IMPROVE TO VFR BY 15Z OR SO. THEN HAVE
TO WATCH POTENTIAL FOR RENEWED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT MAINLY
FOCUSED OVER RI AND SE MA AFTER 18Z. CONFIDENCE WITH TSRA IS LOW.
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
A LINGERING SHRA POSSIBLE EARLY ALONG THE S COAST WITH THE
FRONT...OTHERWISE VFR BUT PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE NEAR THE S COAST.
SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CIGS.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR LATER THIS MORNING. A BRIEF SHOWER
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS MORNING. A WEAK SEABREEZE IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR LATER THIS MORNING. A BRIEF SHOWER
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MVFR / IFR ASSOC REMNANTS OF TS BILL. WIDESPREAD SHRA. POSSIBLE +RA
ALONG THE S-COAST. POTENTIAL VSBY IMPACTS. S-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO
20 KTS ASSOC WITH TS BILL BACKING NW WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
PUSHING REMNANTS OUT TO SEA.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
PERIODS OF -SHRA. LOW-END VFR. W/NW-WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
7 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
TODAY...SW WINDS BECOMING LIGHT THEN LOCALLY EAST ACROSS E MA
WATERS AS WEAK SEABREEZES DEVELOP. WINDS REMAINING SW OVER S
COASTAL WATERS. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.
TONIGHT...LIGHT NE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. ANY EVENING SHOWERS
FOCUSED IN THE RI WATERS TO MVY/ACK AND SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
WATERS.
SATURDAY...WINDS TURNING SE WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT DEVELOPING.
SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
REMNANTS OF TS BILL. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS
ESP OVER THE S-WATERS. ANTICIPATING VISIBILITY IMPACTS. POSSIBLE
FOG. S-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ASSOC WITH TS BILL BACKING NW
WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE PUSHING REMNANTS OUT TO SEA. SEAS
BUILDING IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET ON THE S/SE-WATERS.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LIGHTER W/NW-WINDS. SEAS FALLING BELOW 5-FEET. PERIODS OF SHOWERS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...KJC/NOCERA/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...KJC/NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...KJC/SIPPRELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
702 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND MAY
TRIGGER AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY AND COOLER WEATHER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT SWEEPING FROM THE N AND THE REMNANTS OF TS BILL
MOVING IN FROM THE S WILL MAKE FOR A WET SUNDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF
WET-WEATHER IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY PRIOR TO COOLER AND DRY
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WARMER AND WET CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO RETURN TO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
7 AM UPDATE...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA
ALBEIT DIMINISH OVER MOST LOCATIONS. THERE REMAINS AN INSTABILITY
BURST ACROSS THE AREA AS THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTION ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT PRESENTLY SLOWLY TOWARDS THE S AND
E THOUGH IS VERY MARGINAL WITH ELEVATED CAPES BARELY EXCEEDING 100
J/KG. HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE MORNING FORECAST.
FEEL THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW STILL APPLIES WITH RESPECT TO
EXPECTATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE S ACROSS SNE THIS MORNING. AS THE FRONT
PUSHES S CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO PT-MOSUNNY SKIES FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS PERSISTING THE LONGEST
ALONG THE S COAST.
COLD FRONT APPEARS TO GET HUNG UP NEAR THE SOUTH COAST 18-21Z
BEFORE MOVING S OF NEW ENG BY 00Z. MODELS DO GENERATE MARGINAL SFC
INSTABILITY NEAR THE FRONT WITH SBCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG WITHIN LOW
LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS SO POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
TSTM THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS RI AND SE MA.
TIMING OF DRIER AIR AND FALLING DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S WILL BE
CRITICAL TO THE INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT. IF THE
DRIER AIR IS DELAYED AND DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 60S INTO THE
AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE A GREATER CHANCE OF CONVECTION BUT IF
THESE LOWER DEWPOINTS MOVE IN QUICKER THIS WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE
TSTM DEVELOPMENT.
MODELS ALL GENERATE SOME CONVECTIVE PRECIP IN THE COASTAL PLAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND HRRR IS TARGETING RI AND SE MA SO WE HAVE CHC
POPS FOCUSED ACROSS NE CT...RI AND SE MA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
QUITE IMPRESSIVE AROUND 40-50 KT SO ANY CONVECTION WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY. CANT RULE OUT A STRONG TSTM BUT THINK MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG STORMS.
850 MB TEMPS 12-14C AND WITH DEVELOPING SUNSHINE AND NW WINDS IT
WILL BE A WARM DAY WITH HIGHS REACHING LOW TO MID 80S...EXCEPT 70S
ALONG THE COAST AND OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN WESTERN AND N MA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
A LINGERING SHOWER IS POSSIBLE EARLY EVENING ALONG THE S COAST
WITH THE FRONT...OTHERWISE COOLER AND DRIER POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS
OVERSPREADS THE REGION AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. CLEARING SKIES
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES BUT CLOUDS MAY LINGER DURING THE
NIGHT ALONG THE S COAST WHERE SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. MINS
MOSTLY IN THE 50S BUT SOME 40S POSSIBLE IN NORTH CENTRAL AND W MA.
SATURDAY...
HIGH PRES IN CONTROL AS IT MOVES E OF NEW ENG. EXPECT INCREASING
AFTERNOON CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY W NEW ENG. NAM APPEARS TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH RETUNING MOISTURE AND SHOWERS SO THIS WAS
DISCOUNTED AS HIGH PRES MAINTAINS DRIER AIR WITH HIGHER THETA-E
AIR REMAINING TO THE WEST. COOLER TEMPS IN THE 70S WITH SEABREEZES
LIKELY HOLDING TEMPS NEAR 70 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
- STILL LOOKING WET FOR SUNDAY WITH THE REMNANTS OF TS BILL
- SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT OUTCOMES
- WET-WEATHER IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
- UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DRY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
- A RETURN OF WARMER-WET CONDITIONS BY THE END OF THE WEEK
DISCUSSION...
A FORECAST THAT CONTINUES TO WOBBLE WITH RESPECT TO TWO WEATHER
DISTURBANCES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING: 1. REMNANTS OF TS
BILL AND 2. STRETCHED PACIFIC-ORIGIN ENERGY THROUGH THE QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW.
OF CERTAINTY REMNANTS OF TS BILL ARE ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH THETA-E
AIR / +2-INCH PWATS AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOCUSED ALONG THE NOSE
OF A H925-85 LLJ ALONG ITS E-PERIPHERY OF CYCLONIC FLOW. IT IS
WITHIN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENT NOSE THERE IS A EXPECTATION
OF A GOOD SLUG OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A MOIST-ADIABATIC PROFILE WITH HIGH FREEZING-
LEVEL HEIGHTS. SUCH ANTICIPATED OUTCOMES COULD YIELD THE POSSIBILITY
OF NUISANCE/URBAN/POOR-DRAINAGE FLOODING ALBEIT NOT AS CATASTROPHIC
AS WHAT HAS BEEN WITNESSED UPSTREAM ACROSS TX / OK AS THE FLOW IS
PROGRESSIVE AND REMNANTS ARE BEING SWEPT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE ZONAL-FLOW REGIME.
BUT UNCERTAIN IS THE EXACT TRACK OF THE REMNANTS WHICH CONTINUE TO
WOBBLE AND HOW IT INTERACTS WITH THE NEIGHBORING N-STREAM IMPULSE.
WHILE THE TRACK HAS WOBBLED WITHIN THE LATEST FORECAST RUNS THERE IS
ALSO THE QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
CAN CONNECT WITH THE RRQ OF THE NEIGHBORING UPPER-LEVEL-JET N. THERE
DOES SEEM TO BE SOME LEVEL OF DIFFLUENCE TO SUPPORT DEEP-LAYER LIFT
AND UPSLOPING-OVERRUNNING MOISTURE. THE TIMING MAYBE PERHAPS OFF
SUCH THAT TROPICAL REMNANTS OF BILL MAY BE LIMITED IN THEIR REACH N.
PERHAPS NOT. THIS IN ADDITION THAT BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF ASCENT THERE
HAS TO BE AN AREA OF DESCENT/SINKING AIR. THERE HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT A
CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE NE-CONUS OF LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT BETWEEN THE UNPHASED DISTURBANCES.
SOME UNCERTAINTIES TO PONDER...BUT NEVERTHELESS WILL KEEP WITH A WET
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF TS BILL SLIDE S AND A COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH FROM THE N AND W TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING. WILL
MAINTAIN HIGHER POPS ALONG THE S-HALF OF S NEW ENGLAND. MAIN THREAT
IS HEAVY RAIN WITH LESSER CHANCES OF THUNDER. BUT THIS COULD BE A
SWING AND A MISS PER THE 19.0Z GFS AND ECMWF.
THEREAFTER...NOT LOOKING SUMMER-LIKE. MID-LEVEL ENERGY THROUGH THE
ZONAL-FLOW REGIME IS SHUNTED S GRADUALLY BY A POLAR-ORIGIN WAVE OUT
OF THE HUDSON BAY REGION SWEEPING +8-10C H85 AIR ACROSS THE REGION.
SO AN INITIAL IMPULSE OF WET-WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK-SYNOPTIC
LOW IS ANTICIPATED MONDAY NIGHT. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS AND JUST
SHOWERS. COULD SEE RENEWED ACTIVITY TUESDAY WITH THE ENVIRONMENT
DESTABILIZING MAINLY ACROSS THE N AND W INTERIOR PRIOR TO A STRONG
COLD FRONT DIGGING S PUSHING THE BETTER MOIST-CONVERGENT FLOW REGIME
W TO E ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC TEMPERATURES. LOOKING AT BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY. IN THE END
COULD PERHAPS SEE A CHILLY MONTH OF JUNE OF WHICH TEMPS PRESENTLY
ARE AVERAGING 3 DEGREES BELOW-NORMAL THROUGH THE 18TH.
AS THE POLAR-WAVE RETREATS BACK N TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WILL
SEE THE RETURN OF WARMER AIR AND AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN PER A
CONSENSUS OF FORECAST GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EARLY IFR/MVFR ERODE AND IMPROVE TO VFR BY 15Z OR SO. THEN HAVE
TO WATCH POTENTIAL FOR RENEWED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT MAINLY
FOCUSED OVER RI AND SE MA AFTER 18Z. CONFIDENCE WITH TSRA IS LOW.
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
A LINGERING SHRA POSSIBLE EARLY ALONG THE S COAST WITH THE
FRONT...OTHERWISE VFR BUT PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE NEAR THE S COAST.
SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CIGS.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR LATER THIS MORNING. A BRIEF SHOWER
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS MORNING. A WEAK SEABREEZE IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR LATER THIS MORNING. A BRIEF SHOWER
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MVFR / IFR ASSOC REMNANTS OF TS BILL. WIDESPREAD SHRA. POSSIBLE +RA
ALONG THE S-COAST. POTENTIAL VSBY IMPACTS. S-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO
20 KTS ASSOC WITH TS BILL BACKING NW WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
PUSHING REMNANTS OUT TO SEA.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
PERIODS OF -SHRA. LOW-END VFR. W/NW-WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
7 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
TODAY...SW WINDS BECOMING LIGHT THEN LOCALLY EAST ACROSS E MA
WATERS AS WEAK SEABREEZES DEVELOP. WINDS REMAINING SW OVER S
COASTAL WATERS. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.
TONIGHT...LIGHT NE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. ANY EVENING SHOWERS
FOCUSED IN THE RI WATERS TO MVY/ACK AND SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
WATERS.
SATURDAY...WINDS TURNING SE WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT DEVELOPING.
SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
REMNANTS OF TS BILL. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS
ESP OVER THE S-WATERS. ANTICIPATING VISIBILITY IMPACTS. POSSIBLE
FOG. S-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ASSOC WITH TS BILL BACKING NW
WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE PUSHING REMNANTS OUT TO SEA. SEAS
BUILDING IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET ON THE S/SE-WATERS.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LIGHTER W/NW-WINDS. SEAS FALLING BELOW 5-FEET. PERIODS OF SHOWERS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...KJC/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...KJC/SIPPRELL
MARINE...KJC/SIPPRELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
651 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...AS WET
AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...RADAR REVEALS VERY LITTLE AS SHOWERS CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. THE ARRIVAL OF THE
06Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE SLOWING TREND OF THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION AND HRRR REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SUPPORT THE PREVIOUS
NOTION OF KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. THIS UPDATE REFRESHES THE HOURLY TRENDS PER
OBSERVATIONS.
THE SOMEWHAT SLOWER EXIT OF THIS FRONT AS WE WILL NEED TO RETAIN
SOME POPS THROUGH THE MORNING FOR LOCATIONS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
I90 THEN THROUGH THE I84 CORRIDOR INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
IN FACT...MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY
MAY BE ENOUGH FOR ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND A PASSING SHOWER.
TRENDS IN THE HRRR REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS ALSO SUGGEST THIS SLIGHT
CHANCE POSSIBILITY ALONG WITH SHORT TERM ENSEMBLES.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION AND INTO THE ADIRONDACK STATE PARK THROUGH THE DAY AS
H850 TEMPS SETTLE BACK INTO THE MID-UPR SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE
DACKS/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION TO AROUND 10C ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE I90 CORRIDOR. THIS WOULD SUGGEST TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE NORTH AND INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN GREENS TO AROUND 80F FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT. LOW LEVEL DRY ADVECTION WILL RESULT
IN A DROP IN DEWPOINTS AS WE FALL FROM THE 60S THIS EARLY MORNING
TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH...50S FOR MOST THE REGION BUT
HANGING AROUND 60F FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT WHERE THE
AFOREMENTIONED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION WITH DIMINISHING WINDS THAT BECOME LIGHT TO CALM...AS
THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVERHEARD. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE FOR
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO ONCE AGAIN BECOME SOUTHERLY WITH MOISTURE ADVECTING BACK
NORTHWARD. AS THE CANADIAN AIR MASS SETTLES SOUTHWARD FOR MOST OF
THE REGION...H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +7C TO +10C RANGE. IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE
CWFA WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE U40S TO M50S FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION/MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST...AND MAINLY 40-45F
NORTH OF ALBANY WITH A FEW U30S OVER THE SRN DACKS.
SATURDAY...THE LAST FULL DAY OF SPRING WILL BE A NICE START TO
THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC HIGH MOVING EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...INCREASING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT OVER THE
OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE REMNANT CIRCULATION FROM
BILL WILL ALSO APPROACH THE OH RIVER VALLEY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
POP UP LATE IN THE DAY MAINLY TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF ALBANY.
OTHERWISE FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
AREA WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND M60S TO U60S OVER THE MTNS.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WARM FRONT ADVANCES NORTHWARD WITH
THICKENING CLOUD COVERAGE ALONG WITH INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR
SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AS PWATS CLIMB TO BETWEEN
1.50-2.00 INCHES ALONG WITH NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.
MEANWHILE...REMNANTS OF BILL ARE PROGGED TO TRACK ALONG OR SOUTH
OF I80 WITH THE NAM THE FURTHEST NORTH WITH ITS TRACK THROUGH
SUNDAY. AS PER THE LATEST SWODY3...ALL OF OUR REGION IS WITHIN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS /5%/. A CLOSER EXAMINATION
OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE WELL
INTO THE 60S...SBCAPES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1K-2K J/KG MAINLY ACROSS
OUR EASTERN NY COUNTIES. HOWEVER...WITH PWATS EXPECTED TO BE 2-3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND MARGINAL SHEAR PROFILES OF
25-30KTS...SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH WET MICROBUST
POTENTIAL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
SUNDAY NIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF BILL...UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE AND WEAK
SURFACE REFLECTION WILL TRANSVERSE THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP THE
THREAT FOR MORE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS /ESPECIALLY
DURING THE EVENING HOURS/. OVERALL COVERAGE DOES DIMINISH WITH THE
COMBINATION OF THE LOSS WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME SUBSIDENCE
IN THE WAKE OF BILL. WE WILL LOWER POPS TO CHC-SCT ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY INTO
NW CT. IT WILL BE RATHER WARM AND MUGGY WITH MAINLY 60S FOR BOTH
TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD STILL LOOKS RATHER ACTIVE AS A FAIRLY
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET REMAINS PERCHED JUST TO THE NORTH
OF A STRONG RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST...AND MUCH
COOLER AIR OVER EASTERN CANADA.
A SERIES OF MCS AND PERHAPS A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE WILL
PROPAGATE UNDERNEATH THE JET (RIDGE ROLLERS). TIMING THOUGH CHALLENGING
WAS SURPRISINGLY PRETTY CONSISTENT AMONGST THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF AND CANADIAN LONG
RANGE METEOROLOGICAL MODELS.
MONDAY ACTUALLY LOOKS DRY WITH A BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM CANADA TO BRING A DRY WARM DAY TO OUR PARTS. THEN...ON TUESDAY
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MIGHT TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE ECMWF WAS MOST ROBUST WITH THIS FEATURE AND WPC
LEANED WITH THIS SOLUTION.
THAT SYSTEM IS GONE BY WEDNESDAY...AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO
KEEP IT DRY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT A MCS IS FORECAST TO MOVE
MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION...BUT IT MIGHT CLIP MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN
AREAS. FOR NOW WENT SLIGHT CHANCES EVERYWHERE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY STARTS OUT DRY BUT BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS OUR REGION.
THE 00Z GFS IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM.
EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS LIKE YET ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS OR PERHAPS
EVEN A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN MAINLY FOR FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES START OUT WARM FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S...LOCALLY MID 80S
IN THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER 80S SOUTH AND LOWER 80S WELL NORTH
OF ALBANY. AFTER THAT...TEMPERATURES LOOK SLIGHTLY BELOW FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE 70S...TO NEAR
80 SOUTH...MOST DAYS WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60.
PRECIPITATION LOOK TO CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WAS STILL WORKING THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING.
THIS FRONT CONTINUED TO BRING A FEW SHOWERS...AND MORE
IMPORTANTLY...LOW IFR CLOUDS TO KPSF AND KPOU. THERE WAS A LITTLE
IFR FOG AT KGFL WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13Z. OTHERWISE MVFR AT
KALB.
THE LOW CLOUDS AND MOST SHOWERS SHOULD END BY 14Z AS CONDITIONS
TRANSITION TO VFR. CIGS COULD PERSIST AT KPOU AWHILE LONGER AS
THE COLD SLOWS WHILE PASSING THAT TAF SITE.
WE HANDLED THE SHOWERS WITH VCSH IN THE TAFS.
AFTER 14Z...LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE WITH GOOD
VISIBILITIES.
THE SURFACE WIND...WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH AROUND 10KTS
LATER THIS MORNING..GUSTING UP TO 18KTS AT KALB AND KPSF BY
MIDDAY.
BY THIS EVENING...EXPECT A CLEAR SKY UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY AND
LIGHT WIND. THERE MIGHT BE SOME PATCHY FOG FORMING OVERNIGHT. FOR
NOW ASSIGNED 3SM BR (MVFR MIST) AT KGFL AND ONLY SHALLOW FOG
(MIFG) AT THE OTHER TAF SITES...AFTER 08Z.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY
SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...A
BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY ITS
PASSAGE. THIS FRONT MAY SLOW AS IT APPROACHES THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY WHERE THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ALONG WITH
SOME WEAK WIND CONVERGENCE INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY TO SUPPORT A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE
ADVECTING INTO THE MOST OF OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS WHERE
MIN RH VALUES DROP TO BETWEEN 35 AND 45 PERCENT...WITH NEAR 50
PERCENT SOUTH OF I90. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING TO A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION THROUGH THE DAY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS.
DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE
REGION. LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS EXPECTED AS RH VALUES
CLIMB TO BETWEEN 65 AND 85 PERCENT.
MOISTURE RETURNS THIS WEEKEND WITH INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY EXHIBIT AN INCREASE OF WITHIN
BANK FLOWS THIS WEEKEND AS THE COMBINATION OF HIGHER MOISTURE
CONTENT AND THE REMNANTS OF BILL PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
LOCAL REGION.
PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1.50-2.00 INCHES THIS
WEEKEND WHICH IS 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND ANY
CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. AT THE PRESENT
TIME...QPF FROM THE VAST ARRAY OF GUIDANCE SUGGEST BASIN AVERAGES
WOULD BE AROUND 1 INCH.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
631 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...AS WET
AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...RADAR REVEALS VERY LITTLE AS SHOWERS CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. THE ARRIVAL OF THE
06Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE SLOWING TREND OF THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION AND HRRR REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SUPPORT THE PREVIOUS
NOTION OF KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. THIS UPDATE REFRESHES THE HOURLY TRENDS PER
OBSERVATIONS.
THE SOMEWHAT SLOWER EXIT OF THIS FRONT AS WE WILL NEED TO RETAIN
SOME POPS THROUGH THE MORNING FOR LOCATIONS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
I90 THEN THROUGH THE I84 CORRIDOR INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
IN FACT...MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY
MAY BE ENOUGH FOR ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND A PASSING SHOWER.
TRENDS IN THE HRRR REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS ALSO SUGGEST THIS SLIGHT
CHANCE POSSIBILITY ALONG WITH SHORT TERM ENSEMBLES.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION AND INTO THE ADIRONDACK STATE PARK THROUGH THE DAY AS
H850 TEMPS SETTLE BACK INTO THE MID-UPR SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE
DACKS/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION TO AROUND 10C ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE I90 CORRIDOR. THIS WOULD SUGGEST TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE NORTH AND INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN GREENS TO AROUND 80F FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT. LOW LEVEL DRY ADVECTION WILL RESULT
IN A DROP IN DEWPOINTS AS WE FALL FROM THE 60S THIS EARLY MORNING
TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH...50S FOR MOST THE REGION BUT
HANGING AROUND 60F FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT WHERE THE
AFOREMENTIONED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION WITH DIMINISHING WINDS THAT BECOME LIGHT TO CALM...AS
THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVERHEARD. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE FOR
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO ONCE AGAIN BECOME SOUTHERLY WITH MOISTURE ADVECTING BACK
NORTHWARD. AS THE CANADIAN AIR MASS SETTLES SOUTHWARD FOR MOST OF
THE REGION...H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +7C TO +10C RANGE. IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE
CWFA WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE U40S TO M50S FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION/MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST...AND MAINLY 40-45F
NORTH OF ALBANY WITH A FEW U30S OVER THE SRN DACKS.
SATURDAY...THE LAST FULL DAY OF SPRING WILL BE A NICE START TO
THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC HIGH MOVING EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...INCREASING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT OVER THE
OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE REMNANT CIRCULATION FROM
BILL WILL ALSO APPROACH THE OH RIVER VALLEY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
POP UP LATE IN THE DAY MAINLY TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF ALBANY.
OTHERWISE FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
AREA WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND M60S TO U60S OVER THE MTNS.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WARM FRONT ADVANCES NORTHWARD WITH
THICKENING CLOUD COVERAGE ALONG WITH INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR
SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AS PWATS CLIMB TO BETWEEN
1.50-2.00 INCHES ALONG WITH NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.
MEANWHILE...REMNANTS OF BILL ARE PROGGED TO TRACK ALONG OR SOUTH
OF I80 WITH THE NAM THE FURTHEST NORTH WITH ITS TRACK THROUGH
SUNDAY. AS PER THE LATEST SWODY3...ALL OF OUR REGION IS WITHIN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS /5%/. A CLOSER EXAMINATION
OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE WELL
INTO THE 60S...SBCAPES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1K-2K J/KG MAINLY ACROSS
OUR EASTERN NY COUNTIES. HOWEVER...WITH PWATS EXPECTED TO BE 2-3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND MARGINAL SHEAR PROFILES OF
25-30KTS...SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH WET MICROBUST
POTENTIAL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
SUNDAY NIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF BILL...UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE AND WEAK
SURFACE REFLECTION WILL TRANSVERSE THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP THE
THREAT FOR MORE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS /ESPECIALLY
DURING THE EVENING HOURS/. OVERALL COVERAGE DOES DIMINISH WITH THE
COMBINATION OF THE LOSS WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME SUBSIDENCE
IN THE WAKE OF BILL. WE WILL LOWER POPS TO CHC-SCT ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY INTO
NW CT. IT WILL BE RATHER WARM AND MUGGY WITH MAINLY 60S FOR BOTH
TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD STILL LOOKS RATHER ACTIVE AS A FAIRLY
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET REMAINS PERCHED JUST TO THE NORTH
OF A STRONG RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST...AND MUCH
COOLER AIR OVER EASTERN CANADA.
A SERIES OF MCS AND PERHAPS A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE WILL
PROPAGATE UNDERNEATH THE JET (RIDGE ROLLERS). TIMING THOUGH CHALLENGING
WAS SURPRISINGLY PRETTY CONSISTENT AMONGST THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF AND CANADIAN LONG
RANGE METEOROLOGICAL MODELS.
MONDAY ACTUALLY LOOKS DRY WITH A BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM CANADA TO BRING A DRY WARM DAY TO OUR PARTS. THEN...ON TUESDAY
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MIGHT TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE ECMWF WAS MOST ROBUST WITH THIS FEATURE AND WPC
LEANED WITH THIS SOLUTION.
THAT SYSTEM IS GONE BY WEDNESDAY...AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO
KEEP IT DRY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT A MCS IS FORECAST TO MOVE
MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION...BUT IT MIGHT CLIP MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN
AREAS. FOR NOW WENT SLIGHT CHANCES EVERYWHERE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY STARTS OUT DRY BUT BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS OUR REGION.
THE 00Z GFS IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM.
EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS LIKE YET ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS OR PERHAPS
EVEN A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN MAINLY FOR FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES START OUT WARM FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S...LOCALLY MID 80S
IN THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER 80S SOUTH AND LOWER 80S WELL NORTH
OF ALBANY. AFTER THAT...TEMPERATURES LOOK SLIGHTLY BELOW FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE 70S...TO NEAR
80 SOUTH...MOST DAYS WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60.
PRECIPITATION LOOK TO CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CIGS HAVE BEEN MAINLY IFR EARLY THIS MORNING (LOW IFR AT KPOU AND
KPSF)...OCCASIONALLY LIFTING TO LOW MVFR.
A COLD FRONT WAS IN THE PROCESS OF CROSSING THE TERMINALS...AND
SHOULD CLEAR KGFL WITHIN THE HOUR...NOT CLEARING KPOU UNTIL AFTER
12Z.
SHOWERS WERE WIDELY SCATTERED WITH THIS COLD FRONT...BUT AGAIN THE
BIGGER IMPACT HAS BEEN LOW STRATUS. WE STILL BELIEVE THIS STRATUS
WILL LIFT AFTER 12Z.
THE SURFACE WIND WHICH HAS BEEN MAINLY SOUTHERLY...WILL CONTINUE
TO DO SO THROUGH ABOUT 12Z...THEN SHIFT TO THE W/NW AND THEN
EVENTUALLY NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AFTER THE MORNING PEAK.
THE WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10KTS...GUSTING UP TO 20KTS BY MIDDAY
AT KPSF AND KALB.
CLOUDS WILL LIFT BACK TO VFR AFTER 12Z...THEN EVENTUALLY BECOME
SCATTERED (EXCEPT AT KPOU WHERE A BKN CIG IS LIKELY MUCH OF THE
DAY BUT AGAIN AT 4500 KFT).
BY THIS EVENING...EXPECT A CLEAR SKY UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY AND
LIGHT WIND. THERE MIGHT BE SOME PATCHY FOG FORMING OVERNIGHT AND
WE WILL ADDRESS THAT POSSIBILITY MORE IN THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY
SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...A
BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY ITS
PASSAGE. THIS FRONT MAY SLOW AS IT APPROACHES THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY WHERE THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ALONG WITH
SOME WEAK WIND CONVERGENCE INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY TO SUPPORT A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE
ADVECTING INTO THE MOST OF OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS WHERE
MIN RH VALUES DROP TO BETWEEN 35 AND 45 PERCENT...WITH NEAR 50
PERCENT SOUTH OF I90. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING TO A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION THROUGH THE DAY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS.
DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE
REGION. LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS EXPECTED AS RH VALUES
CLIMB TO BETWEEN 65 AND 85 PERCENT.
MOISTURE RETURNS THIS WEEKEND WITH INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY EXHIBIT AN INCREASE OF WITHIN
BANK FLOWS THIS WEEKEND AS THE COMBINATION OF HIGHER MOISTURE
CONTENT AND THE REMNANTS OF BILL PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
LOCAL REGION.
PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1.50-2.00 INCHES THIS
WEEKEND WHICH IS 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND ANY
CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. AT THE PRESENT
TIME...QPF FROM THE VAST ARRAY OF GUIDANCE SUGGEST BASIN AVERAGES
WOULD BE AROUND 1 INCH.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
950 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...THE LATEST RAP SURFACE TO 500MB ANALYSES
SHOWING THAT THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THE LOW SURFACE/LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXES WERE OVER THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
THE SOUTH HALF AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND FOR THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND SHOULD DELAY THE
ONSET OF THE SEA BREEZE IN NORTH BREVARD AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES. THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GO A LITTLE HIGHER BEFORE THE SEA BREEZE
COMES ASHORE. THE EARLIER SEA BREEZE TO THE SOUTH WILL ALLOW EARLIER
SHOWER AND STORM FORMATION. TD BILL MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS MISSOURI
AND KENTUCKY TODAY WILL KEEP THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXES TO THE SOUTH
JUST ABOUT WHERE THEY ARE PRESENTLY BEING ANALYZED BY THE RAP MODEL.
THE MORNING UPDATE WILL LOOK AT DELAYING THE ONSET OF THE AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZES NORTH BREVARD AND VOLUSIA. THE RAP STEERING WINDS GO
FROM THE WEST IN THE NORTHERN AREAS TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST FORT
PIERCE SOUTH. DAYTONA MAY SEE STORMS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AS
THE SEA BREEZE STRUGGLES TO PUSH INLAND. WILL HAVE TO LOOK AT THE
AFTERNOON WEATHER GRIDS AS WELL.
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE HIGHER TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE INLAND MOVING EAST COAST SEA BREEZE INTO THE
AFT. GREATEST COVERAGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH ANY
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS LATER IN THE DAY. TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS WILL
OCCUR WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. VFR EXPECTED
ALONG THE COAST MELBOURNE SOUTH ONCE THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95.
.MARINE... CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...THE NOAA BUOYS/CMAN SITES WERE
RECORDING SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND 1 TO 2 FOOT
SEAS. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS. SHOULD SEE AN EARLIER SEA BREEZE COMPONENT TO THE
WIND OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS THEN LATE AFTERNOON CAPE CANAVERAL
NORTH. BOATERS SHOULD KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKIES...ESPECIALLY CAPE
CANAVERAL NORTH...FOR WEST TO EAST MOVING STORMS LATER TODAY.
PREVIOUS AFD
TODAY/TONIGHT...RELATIVELY LIGHT LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL EXIST OVER THE
AREA WITH ATL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND WEAK HIGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF.
THIS WILL ALLOW A SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP ALONG BOTH COASTS BY EARLY
AFT...PUSHING INLAND THROUGH LATE DAY. OVERALL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE WITH PW VALUES UP TO 1.9-2.0" WHICH WILL LEAD TO A GREATER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST COVERAGE
WILL EXIST WITH BOUNDARY COLLISIONS INLAND LATER IN THE DAY AND
TOWARD SUNSET...BUT EVEN COASTAL AREAS MAY SEE SOME RAIN ESPECIALLY
AS THE SEA BREEZE INITIALLY FORMS. A FEW INLAND STRONG STORMS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING...STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN THREATS.
EVEN WITH THE EXPECTED HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...THERE
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING FOR HIGHS TO AGAIN REACH THE
LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST AND MID 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR. HEAT INDEX
VALUES UP TO 100-105 ARE AGAIN EXPECTED THIS AFT BEFORE CONVECTION
AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER BRING SOME RELIEF TO THE HOTTER TEMPS
LATER IN THE DAY.
CONVECTION WILL LINGER...MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...INTO THE
EVENING WITH RAIN CHANCES FORECAST TO END BY MIDNIGHT. DEBRIS CLOUD
COVER WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.
SAT...AS THE REMNANTS OF BILL MOVE THROUGH THE TN VALLEY ON
SATURDAY THE ATLC SFC RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL TO S FL. 00Z
NAM IS INDICATING A BIT MORE WESTERLY LOW LVL FLOW THAN THE GFS AS
THE SFC RIDGE SLIPS SLOWLY SOUTH. BOTH MODELS INDICATE MORE THAN
ADEQUATE MOISTURE LVLS FROM 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES IN THE MORNING WHICH
LEAD TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST PREVALENT
ACROSS THE INTERIOR IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AS THE EAST AND WEST COAST
SEA BREEZES PUSH INTO THE INTERIOR. WILL TAPER POPS FROM 20 PCT
IMMEDIATE TREASURE COAST TO 50 PCT ACROSS THE NRN INTERIOR INCLUDING
METRO ORLANDO WHERE THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONG LATE AFTERNOON
STORMS. HIGHS AROUND 90/LWR 90S COASTAL TO MID 90S FOR THE INTERIOR.
SAT NIGHT....SCATTERED EVENING CONVECTION EXPECTED ALONG THE I-4
CORRIDOR INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING. LOWS IN THE 70S.
SUNDAY...THE REMNANTS OF BILL WILL HAVE PASSED OFFSHORE FROM THE MID
ATLC IN THE AFTERNOON WITH ATLC RIDGE ACROSS SRN COUNTIES. NAM STILL
INDICATES THE SFC RIDGE WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH WITH MORE PREVALENT
LOW LVL WESTERLY FLOW THAN THE GFS. FOR NOW WILL TREND TWD THE GFS
WITH LOWER POPS S CSTL WHERE THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL PUSH
INLAND. SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DAY WITH GOOD BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
ACROSS THE NRN INTERIOR AS SEA BREEZES MOVE INLAND. WILL FCST 40-50
PCT FROM OSCEOLA COUNTY INTO THE NRN INTERIOR INCLUDING METRO
ORLANDO. HIGHS AGAIN IN THE LWR 90S CSTL TO MID 90S INTERIOR.
MON-FRI...IT APPEARS THE MID LVL RIDGE WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF
ACROSS THE SE STATES FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK RETURNING MID
LAYER FLOW FROM THE EAST WITH THE ATLC RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL FL INTO THE GULF. LOWEST RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
TREASURE COAST BEACHES WITH HIGHER AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ACROSS THE NRN INTERIOR EACH AFTERNOON. OVERALL INFLUENCE FROM THE
MID LVL RIDGE TO THE NORTH SHOULD WILL REDUCE RAIN CHANCES TO NEAR
20 PCT ALONG CSTL SECTIONS TO AROUND 30 PCT ACROSS THE NRN INTERIOR.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE AROUND 90/LOWER 90S ALONG THE COAST
AND 93-95 ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE INLAND MOVING EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
INTO THE AFT. GREATEST COVERAGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH
ANY BOUNDARY COLLISIONS LATER IN THE DAY. TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS WILL
OCCUR WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...ATLC RIDGE JUST EAST OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN A
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST NEAR THE COAST AS SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS
AND MOVES INLAND THIS AFT. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 1-3 FEET.
SAT-SUN...WINDS AROUND THE ATLC RIDGE THIS WEEKEND WILL BE SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHEASTERLY ALONG THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON. WINDS MAINLY 5-10
KNOTS DURING DAYTIME PERIODS...STRONGER NEAR NEARSHORE WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. EXPECT A NOCTURNAL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS
EACH NIGHT. SEAS NEAR 2 FT AT THE COAST AND 2-3 FT OFFSHORE. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS MAINLY NORTH
OF CAPE CANAVERAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
MON-TUE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AROUND
THE ATLC RIDGE WITH A SE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION NEAR SHORE EACH
AFTERNOON. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 2-3 FT WITH MOST AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSING INLAND AWAY FROM THE NEAR SHORE WATERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 93 74 91 75 / 30 20 30 30
MCO 95 75 93 74 / 50 40 50 30
MLB 91 74 90 75 / 20 10 30 20
VRB 91 75 91 74 / 20 10 20 10
LEE 95 76 94 77 / 50 40 50 30
SFB 95 76 94 76 / 50 40 50 30
ORL 95 76 93 76 / 50 40 50 30
FPR 90 72 91 72 / 20 10 20 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
IMPACT WX/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
FORECASTS...WIMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
939 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
BRIEF UPDATE TO WINDS AND SKY COVER...MAINLY TO INCREASE WIND
SPEEDS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA WHERE BREEZY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTING WINDS OF 10 TO 15
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH IN THE BRAINERD TO GRAND RAPIDS
REGION...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. LATEST RAP MODEL
SOUNDING FOR BRD DEPICTING MIXING TO NEARLY 750 MB...RESULTING IN
25-30 KT WINDS POSSIBLY MIXING DOWN.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
RAIN IN NW MN HAS SHOWN SOME EROSION ON THE LEADING EDGE AS IT
APPROACHES NE MN. HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE ONSET OF THE RAIN AS A
RESULT. REST OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WAS DRIFTING OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT 0730Z. A CANOPY
OF CIRRUS WAS FLOATING OVER THE TOP OF THE HIGH BEING DRIVE BY SHORT
WAVE ENERGY DRIFTING OVER THE DAKOTAS. A FEW SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING
AS A RESULT OVER EASTERN ND. LATEST SHORT TERM HIRES MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER MODELS IN BRINGING THIS RAIN INTO THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE AREA JUST AFTER 12Z. THERE IS SOME EROSION
OCCURRING WITH IS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE HIGH AND
ITS DRIER AIRMASS. HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AS THIS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ALONG THE BORDER. THIS IS
ALSO IN AN AREA OF FGEN THAT STICKS NEAR THE BORDER THROUGH 18Z.
MAINTAIN THE HIGH POPS ALONG THE BORDER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
FGEN INCREASES IN THE IN THE 925MB LAYER. THIS FGEN SIGNAL THEN
LIFTS N OF THE BORDER AFTER 00Z AND THUS LOWERED THE POPS.
MODEL DIFFERENCES REVEAL THEMSELVES THIS EVENING IN REGARDS TO A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX FORECAST TO AFFECT THE AREA. A SLOWER TREND HAS
BEEN NOTED IN THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND HAVE SLOWED THE ONSET
THE OF THE STORMS A BIT. THE MODELS HAVE ALSO COME INTO A BIT BETTER
AGREEMENT THAN 24 HOURS AGO AND ARE POINTING TO THE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX BEING FARTHER SOUTH. THIS IS CONFIRMED BY THE MODELS HAVING
THE THE HIGHEST MUCAPE AXIS OVER SOUTHERN MN BY 12Z SATURDAY. BEST
FGEN FORCING IS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN AND HAVE ALIGNED THE
HIGHER POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE REGION. THERE WILL BE AN
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER TONIGHT AS
WELL. THESE STORMS ARE IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT SHORT WAVE TROF
DIVING SEWD FROM NE ND/SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THEN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
BY 12Z SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL WITH
PWATS APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES...BUT WILL REFRAIN FROM HEAVY RAIN
WORDING ATTM.
MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME LARGER ON SATURDAY. THE QUASI ZONAL UPPER
FLOW WILL BE ANCHORED OVER THE AREA. AS A RESULT...A PARADE OF SHORT
WAVES WILL PLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MORE THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY
MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT IN THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST
SHORT WAVE CRUISES THROUGH NORTHERN MN IN THE MORNING AND NW WI IN
THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE DEPARTING. HAVE HIGH POPS IN THE MORNING
ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. PWATS DECREASE THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY SO NO MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN. LAPSE RATES ARE
MARGINAL FOR ANY SEVERE HAIL AND AM NOT ANTICIPATING ANY OF THE
STORMS TO BE SEVERE ON SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACTIVE THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. UPPER TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST SAT
EVENING WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
COULD SEE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS ON SUNDAY...BUT
THE MAIN PUSH OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE SEEN WITH THE NEXT INCOMING
DISTURBANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. MODEST WAA AND A
STRONG PUSH OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE
REGION MON NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM TRACKS EWD ACROSS THE MID MS
VALLEY REGION...WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND. THE NRN EDGE OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRUSH THE SRN COUNTIES WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS LATE TUE INTO WED. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN
DRY. AN UPPER TROUGH RIDES IN FROM THE NW ON THURSDAY...BUT DOES NOT
HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO REALLY DO TOO MUCH.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MOST OF NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN
ON THE WARM SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH AN AREA OF WEAKENING CONVECTION OVER THE DAKOTAS MOVING INTO
NRN MN BY THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH RE-DEVELOPMENT IN THE
DAKOTAS LATER TODAY. THIS CONVECTION WILL MOVE EWD TONIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THROUGH SAT
MORNING. COULD SEE IFR VSBYS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS...WITH
MVFR CIGS. SOUTH WINDS COULD BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 72 59 75 55 / 10 60 70 20
INL 71 59 73 52 / 70 60 50 10
BRD 77 63 80 58 / 20 70 60 10
HYR 72 61 75 58 / 0 50 80 20
ASX 72 60 73 54 / 0 60 70 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJM
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...TENTINGER
AVIATION...TENTINGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
538 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 529 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH GFS 500MB HEIGHTS
AND WINDS SHOWED AROUND 50KTS OF ZONAL FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. BOOKENDING THIS ZONAL FLOW WERE
TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS...ONE OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...AND THE
OTHER OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC. THE UPSTREAM LOW IS THE ONE OF MOST
INTEREST...SINCE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW WILL
BREAK OFF INTO THE ZONAL FLOW...CROSS THE ROCKIES...AND BE THE
TRIGGER FOR HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL CARRY
OVER TO MN/WI FRIDAY NIGHT AS DISCUSSED IN MORE DETAIL IN THE LONG
TERM SECTION.
MEANWHILE...A NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ONGOING ACROSS THE
BADLANDS OF SOUTH DAKOTA WILL FALL APART BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE
TWIN CITIES. THE 19.05 HRRR DEPICTS THIS...AND THE CAUSE IS A MORE
STABLE AIRMASS...AS WELL AS SLIGHT LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. AS A
RESULT EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN CONVECTIVE DEBRIS TODAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 ACROSS MN...AND MID 70S IN
WESTERN WI. A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR WESTERN
MN WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH.
CONTINUED WITH 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR PRECIP...BUT TRIMMED DOWN THE
AREA CLOSER TO THE HIRES MODEL CONSENSUS.
925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT BLOSSOMS ACROSS EASTERN SD AND
WESTERN MN BY 06Z SATURDAY ON THE NOSE OF A 50 KT LOW LEVEL
JET. THIS SHOULD HELP FUEL THE DIURNAL CONVECTION THAT IS
EXPECTED TO HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL DAKOTAS...AND
ACCELERATE IT EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. STILL LOOKS TO BE A POTENTIAL WIND-
MAKER...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE LOSING SOME STEAM AS IT WORKS
EASTWARD INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
AT DAYBREAK SATURDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL MN. HI-RES MODELS
INDICATE A QUASI-BOW STRUCTURE WILL DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH IT IS
FORECAST TO DEINTENSIFY BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
BY 18Z SATURDAY...THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER WEST CENTRAL WI DOWN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLEARING AND SUBSEQUENT DESTABILIZATION WE
CAN TAP INTO...SHOULD SEE REDEVELOPMENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
THE COLD FRONT. SATURDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL HAVE A DECENT
CHANCE OF BEING STRONG AGAIN. HOWEVER...IT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED
THAT THE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WILL HELP PUSH THE BOUNDARY OUT OF
THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...THUS REDUCING THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS IN OUR FORECAST AREA. IF THE OVERNIGHT COMPLEX DOES NOT END
UP BEING AS STRONG AS EXPECTED...SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY
HAVE A HIGHER RISK FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS FROM CENTRAL/SOUTH
CENTRAL MN EAST ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI.
ON SUNDAY INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...THE FRONT
WOBBLES IN AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA...AS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
TRAVERSE THE FAST WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW REGIME. THERE WILL BE A
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE BOUNDARY...ALTHOUGH THAT
THREAT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY TO LIE SOUTH OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL
OVERALL...WITH A TEMPORARY UPTICK TO HIGHS IN THE 80S OVER THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 529 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. THE STORMS THAT ARE CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA ARE EXPECTED TO FALL APART THIS MORNING...AND NOT IMPACT
THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT BRINGING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND POTENTIALLY
GUSTY WINDS. TRIED TO TIME THE CONVECTION WITH A NARROW TEMPO
WINDOW BASED ON THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE OF SEVERAL HIRES MODELS.
KMSP...
WIND FORECAST THIS MORNING IS A CHALLENGE WITH LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS SHOWING SHOWING BOTH A NORTHERLY AND SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AT
TIMES. FEEL THAT NORTHERLY COMPONENT MAY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT HOUR
OR SO...BUT THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT SHOULD BECOME MORE PROMINENT
BY MID MORNING AS MIXING INCREASES. TIMING OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL BE WEAKENING WHEN IT REACHES
MSP...APPEARS TO BE CENTERED AROUND 10Z SATURDAY MORNING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...TSRA/RA LIKELY EARLY WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE...WINDS SSW AT
10G15 KT.
SUN...VFR WITH TSRA/SHRA POSSIBLE. WINDS W AT 5-10 KT.
MON...VFR WITH TSRA/SHRA POSSIBLE. WIND N AT 5-10 KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRB/LS
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
740 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL WEAKEN THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL APPROACHES THE REGION FROM
THE WEST. THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN NEXT WEEK AS A
STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE
VIRGINIAS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM FRIDAY...
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH A VEIL OF HIGHS CLOUDS TO START THE DAY. MANY
OF THE SAME WEATHER FEATURES THAT HAVE BEEN AROUND FOR THE
PAST DAY OR TWO ARE STILL PRESENT TODAY. THE PERSISTENT
SOUTHEAST RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTH TODAY AND HEIGHTS FALL A BIT
RESULTING IN MAXES TODAY THAT ARE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER
THAN THURSDAY. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM 91 IN THE TRIAD TO 98
NEAR THE SC BORDER.
A HEAT ADVISORY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN...THE SANDHILLS AND THE SOUTHEAST
PIEDMONT. HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THESE AREAS WILL RANGE FROM 101
TO 105 AGAIN TODAY MAKING IT THE 3RD OR 4TH DAY THIS WEEK WITH
SUCH HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
FOCUS INITIALLY ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN PIEDMONT IN A
REGION OF WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MODEST BULK SHEAR
VALUES. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN IN A REGION OF MODERATE
TO EVEN STRONG INSTABILITY AND RAP PROGGED DCAPE VALUES
GREATER THAN 1300 J/KG. SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...THE MAIN SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL BE FROM LOW END ORGANIZED OR MULTICELL
STORMS PRODUCING DOWNBURST WINDS. -BLAES
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT FRIDAY...
CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE ONGOING TONIGHT AT THE START OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE CONVECTION WILL SHIFT EASTWARD WITH TIME
AND DEMONSTRATE A SLOW WEAKENING LATE IN THE EVENING AND DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE 60 TO 75 RANGE.
THE REMNANTS OF BILL WILL MOVE FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON SATURDAY. AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND THE WEAKENING RIDGE WILL RESULT IN MAX
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR OR JUST A NUDGE COOLER THAN FRIDAY.
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON... MOST FAVORED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT
IN PROXIMITY TO THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND DEEP MOISTURE.
-BLAES
&&
..LONG TERM/SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM FRIDAY...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT:
REMNANTS OF TC BILL...PROGGED TO BE INVOF THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEY
REGION SATURDAY MORNING WILL FINALLY GET PICKED BY THE MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES ON SATURDAY AND WILL GET SWEPT EASTWARD THROUGH THE
REGION...SHEARING ALONG THE WAY INTO A COMPACT OPEN TROUGH AS IT
CROSSES THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY.
NOT QUITE THE MOST FAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL STABILIZE OVERNIGHT...BUT THERE WILL BE COPIOUS CAPE ABOVE THE
INVERSION THAT WILL HELP CONVECTION TO SUSTAIN OVERNIGHT AS PWATS
INCREASE TO ~2.0". EXPECT POPS TO INCREASE LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FROM THE WEST AND SPREAD EAST
OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO LOW
LIKELY/HIGH CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER IN PROXIMITY TO THE
BETTER FORCING...TO SMALL CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH.
RAIN SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING THE COASTAL PLAIN BY MID
MORNING WITH FCST SOUNDINGS SHOWING PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE/WARMING
ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING TROUGH THAT WILL SUPPRESS
CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON .
WHILE ANY LINGERING MORNING CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUDINESS MAY RESULT IN A SLUGGISH WARM-UP...FULL SUN DURING THE
AFTERNOON WILL SEND TEMPERATURES SOARING TO WHAT WE HAVE COME
ACCUSTOM TO LATELY. HIGHS TO THE MID 90S NORTH AND UPPER 90S SOUTH.
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
ZONAL FLOW ON MONDAY WILL QUICKLY VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY AS AN UPPER
RIDGE AMPLIFIES IN THE MIDWEST AND MIGRATES EAST THROUGH THURSDAY.
NO RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IS IN SIGHT FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK WITH
PROJECTED LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES 1440-1450 METERS WHILE H8
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO HOVER BETWEEN 20 TO 22C...WHICH WILL
EASILY SUPPORT HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE MID 90S NW TO LOWER 100-102
ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. THESE HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL RESULT IN A A PROLONGED
4 TO 5 CONSECUTIVE DAY STRETCH OF HEAT INDICES OF 102 TO 105 RANGE
ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL
LIKELY WARRANT FUTURE HEAT ADVISORIES FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK.
STRONG ADIABATIC HEATING WILL SUPPORT SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
OF CONVECTION EACH DAY...WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES IN THE FAR WEST
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS WITH INLAND
PENETRATION OF SEABREEZE. DISTURBANCES IN THE AFOREMENTIONED NW FLOW
ALOFT COULD PROVIDE HIGHER/MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES...WILL WOULD
GREATLY OFFER SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT(FINGERS CROSSED)...HOWEVER
MODEL CONFIDENCE IN SUCH MESOSCALE FEATURES THIS FAR OUT IS TOO LOW
AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 740 AM THURSDAY...
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED TO JUST A ROGUE
SHOWER OR TWO NOTED AT DAYBREAK WITH AN AREA OF SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN PIEDMONT. A FEW NON TAF SITE
LOCATIONS WERE REPORTING SOME MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS TODAY WITH A VEIL OF
HIGH CIRRUS. DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING
WITH ANOTHER STORMY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING EXPECTED.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIALLY BE MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE TRIAD AREA
AND TRANSITION EASTWARD AS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. THE CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY
DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATE IN THE EVENING...ALTHOUGH
SOME PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
SATURDAY. THE SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD WILL REMAIN WEAK TODAY
RESULTING IN GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
THAT SHOULD VEER AROUND TO MORE NORTHERLY LATER TODAY.
LOOKING BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY MAY
FEATURE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE BEFORE MORE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING STORMS ARRIVE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. -BLAES
&&
.CLIMATE...
REC
REC HI
DAY MAX YR MIN YR
RDU RECORDS
06/19 102 1944 73 2010
06/20 102 1887 77 1924
06/21 101 1933 75 1933
GSO RECORDS
06/19 100 1944 77 1970
06/20 100 1924 75 2009
06/21 100 1933 75 1924
FAY RECORDS
06/19 102 1944 75 1948
06/20 102 1970 77 2009
06/21 105 1933 74 1999
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ042-043-077-078-085-086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...BLAES
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...BLAES
CLIMATE...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1001 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1001 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
UPPER WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA INDUCING 850MB LOW LEVEL JET AND ENHANCED REGION OF 850MB
WARM AIR ADVECTION...WITH ASSOCIATED RADAR RETURNS ACROSS NE ND
AND NW MN. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. INCREASED POPS
FOR THIS AREA OF SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER ACTIVITY (FOLLOWING THE
LATEST HRRR FOR TIMING). LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS DECREASING...A
SIGN THAT THIS FORCING IS OUTRUNNING INSTABILITY.
THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...IN AN
AREA OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...EVIDENT FROM SATELLITE
IMAGERY.
MAJOR QUESTIONS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL
BE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT...AND THEN HOW
FAR NORTH WILL THE MCS THAT DEVELOPMENTS ACROSS THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS TRACK OVERNIGHT. LATEST SYNOPTIC MODELS AND CAM GUIDANCE
TRENDING TOWARD MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY (DUE TO
CAPPING ISSUES). THIS SFC BOUNDARY (WARM FRONT) WILL BE POSITIONED
FROM SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. SYNOPTIC
FORCING (FROM A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WAVE) WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL
CLOSER TO 03Z. THUS...LIKE THE IDEA OF POSSIBLY ISOLD STORMS
CLOSER TO 00Z ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY (AND POSSIBLY NO STORMS).
ADJUSTED POPS AND DELAYED T+ MENTION UNTIL 00Z. AS THE SYNOPTIC
FORCING OVERRIDES THE REGION...THINKING THAT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
WILL INCREASE...INCREASING SEVERE POTENTIAL. THERE WILL ALSO BE
THE MCS THAT INITIATES ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...AND NOT SURE
THE AFFECT THIS WILL HAVE ON ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH...OR WHERE THIS
SYSTEM WILL TRACK (MAY AFFECT THE SOUTHERN FA). WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AND HOPEFULLY HAVE MORE DETAILS WITH THE 1PM UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
A BAND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION IS FORMING IN CENTRAL INTO NE ND
EARLY THIS MORNING THE HRRR AND OTHER CAM MODELS HAVE THIS WELL IN
HAND...AND EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO MOVE/DEVELOP INTO
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN VALLEY THROUGH THIS
MORNING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE
FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE EXACT DETAILS ARE ALWAYS
CHALLENGING WITH CONVECTION...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...EXPECT A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION THROUGH THE MORNING IN THE NORTH. THERE WILL BE
INCREASING INSTABILITY THROUGH THE DAY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
VALLEY. MODELS HINT AT SOME RE-DEVELOPMENT IN THE NORTH AND
WESTERN FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SFC CAPE AROUND 2000
J/KG. IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...ALTHOUGH ANY AREAS
THAT HEAT OUT TODAY WITH TDS INCREASING WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.
DEEP LAYERED SHEAR THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE STRONG...AROUND
50KT...SO ANY STORMS THAT FORM IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA COULD BE
SUPERCELLULAR INITIALLY. THERE SHOULD BE A LARGER SEVERE TYPE MCS
MOVING FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS INTO THE SOUTHERN VALLEY...OR VERY
CLOSE...LATER TONIGHT FROM 6Z-12Z. THIS WILL BE FED BY A STRONG
LLJ AROUND 50KT AND PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES ON THE GFS AND NAM.
WILL MENTION SEVERE IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA 18Z-06Z...THEN IN THE
SOUTHERN FA 6Z-12Z WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE HERE ALSO.
FOR SATURDAY...THERE WILL BE INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ACTIVE W/NW FLOW ALOFT. THE OVERALL LACK
OF STRONGER FORCING/CONVERGENCE SHOULD LEAD TO ISOLATED COVERAGE
FOR ANY AFTERNOON STORMS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
ON SUNDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN FORECAST
AREA BY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE ABOUT 1500 J/KG OF SFC CAPE AHEAD
OF THE WAVE...AND STRONG DEEP SHEAR AROUND 55KT. THE MAIN THING
WILL BE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE...AND SPC HAS INTRODUCED A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY FOR
FATHERS DAY.
MONDAY TO THURSDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED WITH ZONAL TO NW
FLOW ALOFT WITH PERIODIC SHORT WAVES AND FROPAS PUSHING ACROSS THE
AREA. TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE WAVES WITH WHERE AND WHEN TO
INCREASE OR DECREASE POPS IS TOO UNCERTAIN OTHER THAN MAKE A CHC
MENTION FOR MOST OF THE AREAS EVERYDAY IN THE EXTENDED. THE
EXCEPTION IS MONDAY WITH A DRY DAY EXPECTED AS A WEAK SFC HIGH IS
PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK
WITH UPP70S TO NEAR 80 FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH TONIGHT.
AFTER THIS MORNINGS BAND OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS...STRONGER
STORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. EXPECT OVERALL
VFR CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR STRONGER
SHOWERS AND STORMS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY
OVERNIGHT BEHIND A SFC BOUNDARY.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...JK/DK
AVIATION...DK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
959 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
THE 11-13 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS...00 UTC SPC WRF AND 12 UTC NAM ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE POTENTIAL EVOLUTION OF THE SEVERE
CONVECTIVE EVENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING. THE
CONSENSUS IS FOR POTENTIAL SUPERCELLS TO INITIATE OR CROSS INTO
FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 22 UTC WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MULTIPLE
IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE FAST WESTERLIES ALOFT. 2000-2500 J/KG OF
ML CAPE AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS GENERALLY SOUTH
OF ND HIGHWAY 200 SUPPORTS SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. WHILE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS WEAK AND LCLS
A BIT HIGH...CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT A TORNADO OR TWO GIVEN
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS TO BEGIN THE EVENT. CONGEALING OF STORMS INTO
A POSSIBLE MCS IS STILL FAVORED LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...LOW LEVEL STRATUS THIS MORNING MAY HELP TO
LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT FOR TODAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD THIS MORNING. RAISED POPS NORTH CENTRAL
THIS MORNING...AND UPDATED POPS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
EARLY THIS MORNING A COMPLEX OF SEVERE STORMS WAS MOVING ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF NORTH DAKOTA.
LOCATIONS ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN AND
LIGHTNING...BUT THE MAIN STORM WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH.
OTHERWISE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY FORMING ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA ON THE NOSE OF A POTENT LOW LEVEL JET. THIS
ACTIVITY WAS PICKED UP WELL BY THE HRRR AND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SEVERE
CHANCES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS SKIES SHOULD CLEAR AND LEAD TO
PLENTY OF AFTERNOON HEATING.
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. INITIAL STORMS COULD
RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND BECOME SUPERCELLULAR WITH 2K+ CAPE...50
KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE FORCING
PROVIDED BY A SURFACE LOW AND APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. INITIAL THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WOULD BE VERY LARGE
HAIL...A FEW TORNADOES...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND DAMAGING WIND.
CONVECTIVE MODELS (WRFS) THEN INDICATE MERGING OF CELLS INTO A
LINE SEGMENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE EXACTLY THIS POTENTIAL LINE WOULD
DEVELOP/MOVE. THE NSSL WRF SHOWS THE BULK OF THE LINE QUICKLY
DIVING INTO SOUTH DAKOTA...FOLLOWING A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE THIS
EARLY MORNING`S COMPLEX. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT
WITH AN EVENING/OVERNIGHT SQUALL LINE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN ACTIVE
PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
ON SATURDAY...A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. 19 JUN 00 UTC ECMWF/GFS MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS 20 TO
40 KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH 1000-2000J/KG
MUCAPE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING COMPARED
TO FRIDAY...BUT WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS.
ON SUNDAY A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED JET MAX TRACK
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN HIGHER BULK SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE
WITH MUCAPES AGAIN CLIMBING TO 1000-2000J/KG. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO TRAVERSE THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY...
WITH ANOTHER POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
AN ACTIVE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH NEARLY DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
IN GENERAL...EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S AND MORNING LOWS IN
THE 50S THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 946 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
MVFR/IFR STRATUS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY LIFT WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LIFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
637 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD THIS MORNING. RAISED POPS NORTH CENTRAL
THIS MORNING...AND UPDATED POPS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
EARLY THIS MORNING A COMPLEX OF SEVERE STORMS WAS MOVING ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF NORTH DAKOTA.
LOCATIONS ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN AND
LIGHTNING...BUT THE MAIN STORM WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH.
OTHERWISE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY FORMING ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA ON THE NOSE OF A POTENT LOW LEVEL JET. THIS
ACTIVITY WAS PICKED UP WELL BY THE HRRR AND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SEVERE
CHANCES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS SKIES SHOULD CLEAR AND LEAD TO
PLENTY OF AFTERNOON HEATING.
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. INITIAL STORMS COULD
RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND BECOME SUPERCELLULAR WITH 2K+ CAPE...50
KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE FORCING
PROVIDED BY A SURFACE LOW AND APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. INITIAL THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WOULD BE VERY LARGE
HAIL...A FEW TORNADOES...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND DAMAGING WIND.
CONVECTIVE MODELS (WRFS) THEN INDICATE MERGING OF CELLS INTO A
LINE SEGMENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE EXACTLY THIS POTENTIAL LINE WOULD
DEVELOP/MOVE. THE NSSL WRF SHOWS THE BULK OF THE LINE QUICKLY
DIVING INTO SOUTH DAKOTA...FOLLOWING A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE THIS
EARLY MORNING`S COMPLEX. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT
WITH AN EVENING/OVERNIGHT SQUALL LINE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN ACTIVE
PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
ON SATURDAY...A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. 19 JUN 00 UTC ECMWF/GFS MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS 20 TO
40 KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH 1000-2000J/KG
MUCAPE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING COMPARED
TO FRIDAY...BUT WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS.
ON SUNDAY A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED JET MAX TRACK
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN HIGHER BULK SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE
WITH MUCAPES AGAIN CLIMBING TO 1000-2000J/KG. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO TRAVERSE THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY...
WITH ANOTHER POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
AN ACTIVE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH NEARLY DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
IN GENERAL...EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S AND MORNING LOWS IN
THE 50S THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO
BEGIN THE 12Z TAF PERIOD AT MINOT. LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS AT KISN
THROUGH AROUND 15 UTC. MAINLY VFR CONDIITONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING
FROM KDIK-KBIS-KJMS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME STORMS BECOMING SEVERE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
619 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS MORNING. THE BAND OF ELEVATED SHOWERS WITH A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL AFFECT MAINLY NORTHERN AREAS THIS
MORNING. THE NAM/GFS STILL INDICATE THE THREAT FOR SFC BASED
CONVECTION AFTER 21Z NEAR THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN...THEN MOVING EAST
THIS EVENING. THE MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE MCS SHOULD AFFECT THE FAR
SOUTHERN VALLEY LATER TONIGHT...AND WE WILL MONITOR SEVERE THREAT
TODAY CLOSELY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
A BAND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION IS FORMING IN CENTRAL INTO NE ND
EARLY THIS MORNING THE HRRR AND OTHER CAM MODELS HAVE THIS WELL IN
HAND...AND EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO MOVE/DEVELOP INTO
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN VALLEY THROUGH THIS
MORNING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE
FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE EXACT DETAILS ARE ALWAYS
CHALLENGING WITH CONVECTION...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...EXPECT A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION THROUGH THE MORNING IN THE NORTH. THERE WILL BE
INCREASING INSTABILITY THROUGH THE DAY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
VALLEY. MODELS HINT AT SOME RE-DEVELOPMENT IN THE NORTH AND
WESTERN FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SFC CAPE AROUND 2000
J/KG. IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...ALTHOUGH ANY AREAS
THAT HEAT OUT TODAY WITH TDS INCREASING WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.
DEEP LAYERED SHEAR THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE STRONG...AROUND
50KT...SO ANY STORMS THAT FORM IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA COULD BE
SUPERCELLULAR INITIALLY. THERE SHOULD BE A LARGER SEVERE TYPE MCS
MOVING FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS INTO THE SOUTHERN VALLEY...OR VERY
CLOSE...LATER TONIGHT FROM 6Z-12Z. THIS WILL BE FED BY A STRONG
LLJ AROUND 50KT AND PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES ON THE GFS AND NAM.
WILL MENTION SEVERE IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA 18Z-06Z...THEN IN THE
SOUTHERN FA 6Z-12Z WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE HERE ALSO.
FOR SATURDAY...THERE WILL BE INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ACTIVE W/NW FLOW ALOFT. THE OVERALL LACK
OF STRONGER FORCING/CONVERGENCE SHOULD LEAD TO ISOLATED COVERAGE
FOR ANY AFTERNOON STORMS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
ON SUNDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN FORECAST
AREA BY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE ABOUT 1500 J/KG OF SFC CAPE AHEAD
OF THE WAVE...AND STRONG DEEP SHEAR AROUND 55KT. THE MAIN THING
WILL BE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE...AND SPC HAS INTRODUCED A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY FOR
FATHERS DAY.
MONDAY TO THURSDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED WITH ZONAL TO NW
FLOW ALOFT WITH PERIODIC SHORT WAVES AND FROPAS PUSHING ACROSS THE
AREA. TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE WAVES WITH WHERE AND WHEN TO
INCREASE OR DECREASE POPS IS TOO UNCERTAIN OTHER THAN MAKE A CHC
MENTION FOR MOST OF THE AREAS EVERYDAY IN THE EXTENDED. THE
EXCEPTION IS MONDAY WITH A DRY DAY EXPECTED AS A WEAK SFC HIGH IS
PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK
WITH UPP70S TO NEAR 80 FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH TONIGHT.
AFTER THIS MORNINGS BAND OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS...STRONGER
STORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. EXPECT OVERALL
VFR CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR STRONGER
SHOWERS AND STORMS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY
OVERNIGHT BEHIND A SFC BOUNDARY.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...JK/DK
AVIATION...DK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1100 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.DISCUSSION...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST PRODUCTS EARLIER THIS MORNING TO REMOVE
ALL POPS FROM THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. ALL OTHER FORECAST
ELEMENTS REMAIN ON TRACK AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS AFTERNOON AT THE
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TAF SITES. THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA SITES MAY SEE
OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING...BUT VFR WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT. ALL SITES WILL BE VFR FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THE CENTER OF BILL HAS EXITED THE TULSA COUNTY WARNING AREA AND IS NOW
CENTERED OVER FAR EASTERN JOHNSON COUNTY ARKANSAS. MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES
TO WRAP AROUND BILL AND AFFECT NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AT THIS HOUR. WILL
KEEP FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE THROUGH 12Z. MAY TRIM THE OKLAHOMA COUNTIES
OUT OF THE WATCH PRIOR TO THE ISSUANCE OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WILL KEEP
SOME POPS THROUGH 18Z FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE HRRR HAS THE
BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK....THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE
BIG STORY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. THE HUMIDITY WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN HOTTER.
HOWEVER...BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR NOW.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY SNEAK INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RETROGRADES TO THE
WEST...RESULTING IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...
THIS OCCURS JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
629 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS AFTERNOON AT THE
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TAF SITES. THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA SITES MAY SEE
OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING...BUT VFR WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT. ALL SITES WILL BE VFR FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THE CENTER OF BILL HAS EXITED THE TULSA COUNTY WARNING AREA AND IS NOW
CENTERED OVER FAR EASTERN JOHNSON COUNTY ARKANSAS. MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES
TO WRAP AROUND BILL AND AFFECT NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AT THIS HOUR. WILL
KEEP FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE THROUGH 12Z. MAY TRIM THE OKLAHOMA COUNTIES
OUT OF THE WATCH PRIOR TO THE ISSUANCE OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WILL KEEP
SOME POPS THROUGH 18Z FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE HRRR HAS THE
BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK....THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE
BIG STORY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. THE HUMIDITY WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN HOTTER.
HOWEVER...BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR NOW.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY SNEAK INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RETROGRADES TO THE
WEST...RESULTING IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...
THIS OCCURS JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY FOR ARZ002-ARZ011-ARZ020.
&&
$$
AVIATION...05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1025 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE LOWER 48 STATES.
FREQUENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS AND NORTHWARD AND SOUTHWARD
OSCILLATIONS OF A TROPICAL MOISTURE BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THIS TIME. A DRIER PATTERN
MAY EMERGE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS CWA THIS MORNING. THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL BE DRY TODAY, WITH JUST A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS DRIFTING SOUTH WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ANOTHER AREA OF
SHOWERS MOVING INTO SW PA THIS AFTERNOON...THE FIRST BATCH OF
MOISTURE FROM REMNANTS OF BILL. HRRR SHOWS THESE SHOWERS WILL
SLIDE ALONG OR SOUTH OF PA/MD BORDER. SATELLITE SHOWS SOME BREAKS
IN CLOUDS BUT EXPECT THAT TO FILL IN AND SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED
ACROSS THE CWA TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
DEWPOINTS SLOWLY DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT PROVIDING A
MORE COMFORTABLE SLEEPING NIGHT FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL PA. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER
60S OVERNIGHT. PROXIMITY TO STALLED BOUNDARY ALSO MEANS PRECIP
CHANCE CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF CENTRAL PA
OVERNIGHT.KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES GOING OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS
EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. MINS WILL DROP TO AROUND 50F NORTH
TO AROUND 60F SOUTH.
MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS QUASI STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WAGGLES BACK NORTHWARD. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL MOISTURE REMNANTS FROM BILL ARE PROGGED TO MOVED
THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON
LINE ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...PRECIPITABLE H20 VALUES 1.5" TO 2.0"
ARE EXPECTED BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE AND MODERATE CAPES...FUELING SCT TO
NMRS SHRA AND TSRA AND SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NORTH TO AROUND 80 SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RAINFALL FROM THE TROPICAL MOISTURE REMNANTS OF BILL MAY BRING
A WIDESPREAD ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE STATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH LESS TO THE
NORTH OF STATE COLLEGE. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AND SO THIS IS STILL A
CONCERN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE RAINFALL
WILL BE BENEFICIAL FOR DROUGHT RELIEF. THE MAIN CONCERN REMAINS
FOR POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED FLOODING IF THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY
MOVE OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS.
CLOUDS AND HUMIDITY WILL LINGER BEHIND UNTIL THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. UPR LEVEL RIDGE SETS UP
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH NW FLOW ACROSS PA BEGINNING MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. MODEL UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FOR MID WEEK ON TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE NEXT SYSTEMS. GENERALLY LOOKING AT A VIGOROUS LOW
PRESSURE CENTER MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO PA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING SPREADING MORE SHOWERS ACROSS THE STATE. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH WITH WEATHER CLEARING BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY BRINGING
COOLER NIGHTS AND DRIER WEATHER. BUT THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES
WITH THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHING SW PA WITH A WARM FRONT AND SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BROAD UPPER TROF AND 40KT 850 MB JET DRIVING AREA OF RAIN AND SCT
CONVECTION TO CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS MORNING. OVERALL AREA IS
SLOWLY DIMINISHING...BUT SCT SHRA/TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSS WITH
ACTIVITY SHIFTING TO THE NORTHERN MTNS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
MVFR/IFR CIGS SHOULD SETTLE IN OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS
OVER NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED MVFR FOG
RESTRICTIONS POSS OVER THE SE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING HOURS.
ISOLATED TSTMS POSS ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...BCMG VFR. ISO TSTMS POSS SOUTH.
SAT-SUN...CIG REDUCTIONS LIKELY WITH PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA.
LOCALLY +RA PSBL SAT NGT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
MON...MAINLY VFR. MVFR WEST WITH ISOLATED TSRA.
TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE TSRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...ROSS
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...WATSON
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
600 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR TODAY. STRONG MCS CURRENTLY WORKING INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE AS OF 08Z....AND IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE 13-14 Z TIME
FRAME. WHAT IS INTERESTING...IS THAT THE AIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA
IS COMPLETELY STABLE...BUT OFTEN TIMES...STRONG...WELL ESTABLISHED
MCS CAN OUTRUN THE INSTABILITY. HRRR HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH
THIS...AND RAP IS NOW BEGINNING TO TREND IN THIS DIRECTION AS WELL.
HAVE BEGUN TO TREND UPWARDS WITH POPS IN NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA IN
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...BUT TRAIL POPS OFF TO THE EAST AS COMPLEX IS
EXPECTED TO FALL APART AS IT WORKS DEEPER INTO THE STABLE AIR.
RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER WILL REDUCE HEATING POTENTIAL FOR TODAY...AND
HAVE CUT BACK HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA...WITH GREATEST
ADJUSTMENTS IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES THIS EVENING AS 35-45 KNOT LOW LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WHILE STILL CAN/T RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED STORM THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...IT DOES APPEAR THAT
THE CAP WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
MID LEVEL WAVE TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL INITIALLY TO ISOLATED AT
BEST.
MUCH BETTER FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN REACHES
OF THE STATE IN THE EVENING HOURS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. BASED ON
SHEAR AND STORM MOTION...EXPECTING STORMS TO ORGANIZE INTO A MATURE
MCS AND WORK INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA 05-07Z.
EXPECT STORMS TO BE ELEVATED...BUT WITH RELATIVELY DRY LAYER FROM
750 UP TO 300 MB...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG ORGANIZED MCS TO CREATE
DAMAGING WINDS. 0-3 KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS NEAR 30-35 KNOTS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA....INDICATING DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90. AS STORMS WORK EAST OF I-29 AFTER
9Z...SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS DECREASE AND AM EXPECTING THE
OVERALL INTENSITY TO DECREASE. WITH THAT SAID...STILL KEPT POPS IN
THE CATEGORICAL RANGE ACROSS THE NORTH CLOSEST TO THE MID LEVEL
WAVE...WITH LESSER CHANCES TO THE SOUTH ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-90 AS
ONE GETS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE MID LEVEL WAVE AND THE UPPER JET.
HAVE ADDED MENTION OF CHANCE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS TO
WEATHER GRIDS...BUT WAS LESS CONFIDENT EAST OF I-29 AND DECREASED TO
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WHERE SEVERE PARAMETERS
AND SPC OUTLOOK DECREASE.
HAVE COOLED LOWS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE CONVECTION SEEMS
LIKELY...AND LEFT TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF I-90 QUITE MILD IN THE UPPER
60S WHERE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES ARE. WITH 0-2 KM VGP AND 0-3 KM
EHI SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS...WILL KEEP MENTION OF LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN THE HWO. HAVE ALSO MENTIONED IN THE GRIDS...WITH
LESSER CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE EAST OF I-29.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
ON SATURDAY...THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SHOULD BE RAPIDLY EXITING OUR
EASTERN ZONES IN THE MORNING. FURTHERMORE...THE WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FAIRLY EARLY IN THE DAY WHICH SHOULD BUILD STORMS AWAY FROM OUR
LOCATION IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH GOOD MIXING POTENTIAL AND SOME DRY
AIR ADVECTION...HIGHS STILL LOOK WARM WITH WIDESPREAD 80S. CURRENTLY
HAVE 89 AT SIOUX CITY BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THEY HIT 90 OR
THE LOWER 90S IF THE MID AND UPPER CLOUD COVER EXITS QUICKLY ENOUGH
BY MIDDAY. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES SATURDAY NIGHT...HELPING TO GIVE
LIGHT WINDS AND WHAT SHOULD BE A DRY NIGHT. THEN ON SUNDAY...THE
VARIOUS MODELS INCLUDING THE GFS...ECMWF AND NAM SHOW A WEAK SHORT
WAVE IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF
I 29 AND NORTH OF I 90 IN OUR SOUTH DAKOTA ZONES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IS A BIT LACKING AFTER THE WIND SHIFT ON SATURDAY...BUT PLENTY OF
MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXISTS WITH SOME DECENT LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 700
AND 500MB. THEREFORE CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREA WITH LESS CHANCES ELSEWHERE.
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...SUNDAYS MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WEAKENS IN OUR
EATERN ZONES AS IT MOVES EASTWARD...REPLACED BY A STRONG SHORT WAVE
RAPIDLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND THE NORTHERN
HALF OF MINNESOTA. MOST OF THE DYNAMICS REMAINS NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...SO THEREFORE ONLY CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES.
LOWS STILL LOOK MILD...ABOUT 60 TO 65 DEGREES WITH THE WINDS
CHANGING TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE PASSAGE LATE AT NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW IN THE EXTENDED IN TERMS OF WHEN AND WHERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE. IN GENERAL...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
SHOWING AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
UNITED STATES WITH A BRISK QUASI ZONAL FLOW THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN
HALF. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN SHOULD GIVE MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S BASED ON THE
LATEST 850MB TEMPERATURES OFF OF THE LATEST ECMWF AND GFS. LOWS ARE
PRIMARILY IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S...BUT IF WE GET LIGHT WINDS
COUPLED WITH CLEAR SKIES...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF LOWS ERROR
ON THE COOL SIDE OF SUPERBLEND LOWS HERE AND THERE. DUE TO THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS WITH SPECIFIC SHORT WAVE
TIMING MOVING ACROSS THE FAST UPPER FLOW...PIN POINTING RAIN CHANCES
IS REAL PROBLEMATIC. AT THIS TIME...THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A
WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS WHERE THERE IS SOME
AGREEMENT IS IN NORTHWEST IOWA AND EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS LOOK LIKE
THEY DEVELOP A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED SHORT WAVE...THEREFORE THE SHORT
WAVE IN THAT AREA MAY BE A RESPONSE TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. VERY
DIFFICULT TO TELL THIS FAR OUT. THERE IS AN 850MB BOUNDARY CLOSE TO
NORTHWEST IOWA...AT LEAST EXTENDING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
NORTHWEST IA. SO ITS WORTH WATCHING BUT HIGH POPS ARE NOT WARRANTED
YET AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...BUT AT THIS TIME THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE DOES NOT LOOK TO HAVE A LOT OF SHOWER OR STORM ACTIVITY WITH
IT. ONE THING OF INTEREST IS THE LONGER RANGE STILL SHOWS THE UPPER
RIDGE MIGRATING AND BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES BEYOND
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THAT WOULD PUT THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN A SHORT
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 552 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
COMPLEX OF WEAKENING STORMS MOVING FROM CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WILL
AFFECT HURON AND AREAS NORTH OF I-90 THIS MORNING. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR. BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WILL DEVELOP
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. AN MCS IS EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE THIS EVENING...MOVING EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AROUND MIDNIGHT. HAVE NOT ADDED WIND
POTENTIAL TO THE HURON TAF...BUT MAY NEED TO DO THAT IN FUTURE 18
OR 00Z ISSUANCE. CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH
IS LESS...AND THEREFORE HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT FOR NOW.
HOWEVER...STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND HAVE ADDED MENTION OF LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO SIOUX CITY AND SIOUX FALLS. MAY NEED TO ADD
CONVECTION TO TAF AS WELL FOR SIOUX FALLS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE MENTION. BEST CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION IN SIOUX FALLS WILL BE IN THE 08-11Z TIME FRAME.
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1029 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.UPDATE...
REMNANTS OF BILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT NORTHEAST ARKANSAS THIS
MORNING. IN ADDITION...NEW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT HAS BEGUN ALONG AND
JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS AREA
REALLY BLOSSOMING OVER THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS WHILE THE BAND OF RAIN
OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS MAY SHOW SIGNS OF DISSIPATING. MAY NEED TO
ADJUST POPS THIS AFTERNOON BUT FOR NOW CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GOOD
HANDLE.
KRM
&&
.DISCUSSION.... /ISSUED 438 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015/
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL WILL AFFECT THE MIDSOUTH
TODAY AND TONIGHT BRINGING THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.
EARLY THIS MORNING...BILL REMAINED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND WAS
TRACKING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. A BROKEN
BAND OF SHOWERS HAD SPREAD INTO THE MIDSOUTH AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
AND WAS INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.
BILL IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TODAY AS IT CONTINUE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. THE LOW WILL TRACK
ALONG THE AR AND MO BORDER MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BY LATE
AFTERNOON. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. ATTM...THINK WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN
2.4 AND 2.5 INCHES ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD INTO THE MIDSOUTH TODAY.
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE WIDESPREAD HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL TRACK
CLOSE TO OR JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN REACHES OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...NEAR THE THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. KEPT THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST AR AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF A LINE FROM WALNUT RIDGE AR TO CARUTHERSVILLE MO. FLASH FLOOD
VALUES ARE FAIRLY HIGH ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...BUT RAINFALL MAY BE
HEAVY ENOUGH IN A SHORT TIME TO CAUSE SOME FLASH FLOODING IN THE
WATCH AREA. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR AS SPIRAL BANDS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPAND WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS
THE MIDSOUTH. A FEW EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE THAT COULD
RESULT IN ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS. OF THE VARIOUS
MODELS...THE NAM INDICATES THE GREATEST DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ACROSS
THE REGION WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ROTATING SUPERCELLS.
HOWEVER...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED.
THE REMNANTS OF BILL WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE KY / IN BORDER BY 12Z
SATURDAY. MODELS INDICATE THAT LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY NOON SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES FURTHER TO THE EAST. SOUTHWEST
LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PUSH HOT AIR INTO THE REGION WITH
THE NAM BEING THE MOST ROBUST.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
OVER THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE WEST BEGINNING SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A MOSTLY RAIN FREE AND PERIOD OF EXCESSIVE HEAT. HEAT INDEX
READINGS WILL PROBABLY CLIMB TO ABOVE 105 DEGREES WITH A HEAT
ADVISORY BECOMING NECESSARY FOR MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH. DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE HOW MUCH DRY WILL WORK ITS WAY DOWN TO THE SURFACE FROM
ALOFT DURING THE AFTERNOONS...BUT USUALLY FOLLOWING TROPICAL
SYSTEMS THE LOWER LEVELS REMAIN QUITE MOIST.
MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENING BY THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING.
THIS IS A LONG WAYS OFF AND REMAINS TO BE SEEN.
JCL
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY AT ALL TERMINALS WITH SHOWERS INCREASING
IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
BILL. WINDS HAVE ALSO INCREASED IN ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION. WINDS WILL GAIN A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON REMAINING BETWEEN 15 AND 25 KTS. VCTS IS
ALSO POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z AS SOME DAYTIME HEATING IS REALIZED.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...BEGINNING TO
DECREASE TOWARD 09Z SATURDAY.
TVT
&&
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR CLAY-GREENE-
LAWRENCE-RANDOLPH.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
626 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.AVIATION...
-SHRA/-TSRA THAT WERE IMPACTING KLBB AND KPVW HAVE DIMINISHED.
WINDS HAVE THEREFORE BECOME VARIABLE BUT WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE TO
THE SOUTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING...BEFORE VEERING TO THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON. COMPUTER MODELS HINT AT THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED -TSRA TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS
EVENING...THOUGH THE EXACT LOCATION IS UNCERTAIN AND THE MODELS
COULD BE OVERDOING THIS CONVECTION. AS SUCH...CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT A PRECIP MENTION FOR THIS TAF CYCLE...AND
OPT TO WAIT AND SEE HOW TRENDS GO LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WILL OF
COURSE AMEND AS NECESSARY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015/
SHORT TERM...
AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL CONTINUED TO PUSH ENEWRD ACROSS NRN AR
EARLY THIS MORNING...BROAD UA RIDGING ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS HAS
GRADUALLY EXPANDED EWRD TO NEAR REGION. THUS...THE WRN PERIPHERY
WAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS SUCH...N-NW FLOW ALOFT
PREVAILED WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A WANING MCS HAVING THE CAPABILITY
TO SAG SWRD ACROSS THE TX/NM STATE LINE PER 07Z WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY. FURTHERMORE...RADAR ANALYSIS SHOWED THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS IN THE WAKE OF AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TRANSLATING SE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND
TOWARDS LOCALES OFF THE CAPROCK. ALTHOUGH THIS SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS MOVING...THE RATHER MOIST ENVIRONMENT /DEWPOINTS IN
THE 50S AND 60S/ HAS ALLOWED THIS ACTIVITY TO BRIEFLY DROP
MODERATE RAINFALL. A TTU MESONSET SITE LOCATED AT REESE CENTER
RECORDED A TOTAL OF 0.53 INCHES THAT OCCURRED WITH ONE HOUR...AND
AT THE NWS OFFICE...AROUND 0.70 INCHES FELL. KEEPING IN MIND THAT
MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE DONE A POOR JOB IN EVEN SHOWING THIS
MORNING/S CONVECTION...WILL ADJUST POPS IN THE PRE-FIRST PERIOD
INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY OFF THE CAPROCK...GIVEN STORMS
HAVE POPPED UP ACROSS BRISCOE COUNTY. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD
DEMISE IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND THE HRRR HINTS AT FOG
DEVELOPING AND REMAINING SOUTH OF THE CWA. WILL KEEP AN EYE OUT TO
SEE IF THIS INDEEDS OCCUR.
TODAY...THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE UA RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND EVER
SO SLIGHTLY EWRD ACROSS THE REGION AND ONE WOULD EXPECT
DECREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP. HOWEVER...THE NAM AND LONG TERM
SOLUTIONS HINT AT STORMS FIRING UP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF NERN NM AND SERN CO THIS AFTN/EVENING. W-SW
MEAN FLOW RAISES EYEBROWS FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO POSSIBLY SHIFT
TOWARDS THE CWA ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT...HOWEVER THE MEAN FLOW IS
RATHER WEAK /AOA 10 KTS/ WHICH COULD MITIGATE THIS FROM OCCURRING.
WHAT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE IS THAT HIGH-RES SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE
HRRR AND THE TTU WRF EXHIBITED ISOLATED-SCATTERED STORMS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTN JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE ACROSS THE FA...WITH THE
CAP EXPECTING TO BREAK BY LATE AFTN. THIS IS A POSSIBILITY
ESPECIALLY SINCE THE UA RIDGE IS NOT QUITE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD...HOWEVER MODELS PERFORMING POORLY AS OF LATE DOES NOT
BODE WELL FOR CONFIDENCE. WILL OPT TO RAISE POPS TO 10- 12 PERCENT
WITH HIGHEST POPS NOTED ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES THIS AFTN...AND
KEEPING POPS AROUND 12 PERCENT ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES ONCE AGAIN
FOR TONIGHT. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS SEE HOW RADAR TRENDS ARE
SHAPING UP THIS AFTN AND EVENING AND WHETHER OR NOT POPS NEED TO
BE RAISED TO MENTIONABLE LEVELS. IF STORMS DO INDEED
DEVELOP...MUCAPE OF 2-2.5 KJ/KG MAY RAISE CONCERNS FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS...HOWEVER RATHER WEAK 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR /LESS THAN 20 KTS/ MAY KEEP STORM STRENGTH ON THE TAME SIDE.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER DAY OF SEASONAL WARMTH IS ON TAP /LOWER 90S/
FOLLOWED BY A MILD NIGHT /LOWER 60S ACROSS NW TO LOWER 70S FAR
EAST/.
LONG TERM...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SWRN CONUS AND ADJACENT WATERS OFF THE
COAST OF SRN AND BAJA CALIF WILL EXPAND EWD THROUGH THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND FAIR BUT BREEZY WEATHER
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A WWD-MOVING
INVERTED UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS
WEEKEND AND ONTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NRN MEXICO TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. AS MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM SPREADS NWD INTO NEW
MEXICO AND AS A LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER CALIF
COULD SEE SOME PRECIP RETURN TO NEW MEXICO AND POSSIBLY THE SOUTH
PLAINS AND PANHANDLE. CONFIDENCE OF THIS DEVELOPMENT BY DAYS 6 AND
7 OF THE FCST TOO LOW TO INSERT PRECIP MENTION JUST YET. UNTIL
THEN WARM AND DRY WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS FCST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 90 64 92 63 / 10 10 0 0
TULIA 91 66 92 65 / 10 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 91 65 91 65 / 10 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 93 65 92 66 / 10 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 93 66 92 68 / 10 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 91 63 92 64 / 10 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 92 65 92 66 / 10 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 94 70 95 70 / 10 0 0 0
SPUR 94 68 93 67 / 10 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 95 70 94 70 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
29/7/29
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
406 AM MDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING HOT AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER TO
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE TO
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE BORDERLAND EACH DAY
WITH MOST OF THE STORMS OCCURRING OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE EAST WILL GENERATE
INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT
THURSDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER ACTIVE NIGHT FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTING INTO THE EARLY MORNING DESPITE
ALL THE MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR PREDICTING DRY WEATHER. LIKE
LAST NIGHT THERE IS AS POSSIBLE POORLY ANALYZED UPPER WAVE MOVING
AROUND THE RIDGE INTO EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA FROM THE NORTH.
THE WEST TO EAST ORIENTED UPPER RIDGE NOW EXTENDING INTO THE CWA
WILL FURTHER EXPAND AND STRENGTHEN INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER ALOFT LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO BY LATE
SUNDAY. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE PLUS ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL SUPPORT
HOT ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY. WARM AIR
ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE WILL ALSO GREATLY INHIBIT CONVECTION ACROSS
MOST AREAS DESPITE HOT AND MODERATELY MOIST CONDITIONS AT LOW
LEVELS. THUS EXPECT MOST CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS THROUGH MONDAY THOUGH VERY ISOLATED STORMS MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS VIA HEATING PLUS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES.
MODELS HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT AND IN AGREEMENT IN MOVING RATHER
HIGH AMPLITUDE INVERTED TROUGH SLOWLY INTO WEST AND SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. TRAJECTORIES AROUND THE TROUGH
WILL ADVECT ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO THE CWA CAUSING PRECIPITABLE
WATER TO RISE ABOVE AN INCH WITH THE AIR MASS BECOMING WEAKLY
UNSTABLE. LIFTING AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD CONSEQUENTLY
INDUCE MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. IF MODELS
PROVE CORRECT POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING WILL
INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SO SITUATION SHOULD BE MONITORED
LATER FORECAST PERIODS.
&&
.AVIATION...19/12Z-20/12Z.
ISOLATED AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS MOST AREAS WITH AREAS OF
CEILINGS ABOVE 10,000 FEET AGL. THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH WITH WINDS OTHERWISE HAVING SPEEDS AROUND 5 TO 15
MPH.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING HOT AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER TO
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE TO BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA EACH DAY WITH MOST OF THE
STORMS OCCURRING OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS. WINDS MAY GUST TO 50
MPH NEAR STORMS...OTHERWISE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE MOSTLY AROUND 5 TO
15 MPH. LOWEST AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL BE AROUND 5 TO 15 PERCENT
LOWLANDS AND 20 TO 30 PERCENT MOUNTAINS TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE EAST WILL
GENERATE INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TUESDAY
THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 100 75 102 76 / 10 10 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 94 69 96 70 / 10 10 10 0
LAS CRUCES 98 69 101 70 / 10 10 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 96 68 99 69 / 10 10 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 77 50 79 53 / 30 30 20 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 97 68 99 69 / 10 20 0 0
SILVER CITY 93 61 94 62 / 10 20 0 0
DEMING 99 65 101 66 / 10 10 0 0
LORDSBURG 99 67 100 67 / 10 10 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 99 76 102 76 / 10 10 0 0
DELL CITY 94 67 99 68 / 10 10 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 97 73 100 73 / 10 10 10 0
LOMA LINDA 94 67 98 69 / 10 10 0 0
FABENS 100 72 102 73 / 10 10 10 0
SANTA TERESA 99 71 101 71 / 10 10 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 96 70 100 71 / 10 10 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 97 66 100 67 / 10 10 0 0
HATCH 98 66 101 67 / 10 10 0 0
COLUMBUS 99 70 101 70 / 10 10 0 0
OROGRANDE 97 72 99 73 / 10 10 0 0
MAYHILL 83 54 88 56 / 30 30 20 10
MESCALERO 85 53 89 55 / 30 30 10 10
TIMBERON 83 51 87 54 / 30 30 10 0
WINSTON 91 57 96 60 / 20 20 0 0
HILLSBORO 97 63 101 64 / 10 20 0 0
SPACEPORT 98 66 100 67 / 10 10 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 91 54 94 58 / 20 20 0 0
HURLEY 94 61 96 62 / 10 10 0 0
CLIFF 98 56 99 55 / 10 10 0 0
MULE CREEK 97 52 98 51 / 10 10 0 0
FAYWOOD 94 62 97 64 / 10 10 0 0
ANIMAS 100 68 101 67 / 10 10 0 0
HACHITA 100 67 101 66 / 10 10 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 99 66 100 65 / 10 10 0 0
CLOVERDALE 98 64 98 62 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
05 ROGASH
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