Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/18/15


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
1023 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 .UPDATE... TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL IS CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER AND IS SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE NORTH. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NW ARKANSAS. HRRR HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWED THIS PRECIPITATION WEAKENING AFTER 08Z WITH THE BAND SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST. AT THIS POINT IN THE EVENING...NO LOCATION IN THE CWA HAS RECEIVED OVER AN INCH OF RAIN TODAY. THEREFORE...WILL CHOOSE NOT TO EXPAND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FURTHER EAST. OTHERWISE...JUST SOME TWEAKS TO QPF AND POPS IN THE FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015/ AVIATION... A BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN ARKANSAS THROUGH THIS EVENING HOURS AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN TEXAS AND TURNS TO THE EAST. PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL SECTIONS AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS, EASTERN SECTIONS WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VFR CONDITIONS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015/ SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD FOCUSES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL AND EVENTUALLY ITS REMNANTS. BILL IS LOCATED IN NORTH TEXAS AND WILL MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA TONIGHT PULLING IN GULF MOISTURE ALONG THE WAY. MODELS INDICATE NORTH MOVEMENT INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THEN TURNING EAST AND MOVING ACROSS NORTH ARKANSAS. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER ARKANSAS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST. WITH THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT...EXPECT A LITTLE MORE RAINFALL FURTHER EAST. INCREASED THE POPS AND QPF FURTHER EAST AS RAIN WILL BE LIKELY. EXPECT THE UPPER LOW TO MOVE THROUGH NORTH ARKANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI SATURDAY MORNING. 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN FALLING THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL. SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ENDING SATURDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST AND CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THEN BACK ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY. LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ONCE THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM BILL EXITS THE MID SOUTH...PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO ISOLATED...LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SINGLE CELL CONVECTION. A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXPAND FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...TOWARDS THE MID SOUTH DURING THIS PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS PERIOD. HYDRO OUTLOOK... THE TROPICAL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF BILL WILL BRING SEVERAL BANDS OF RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WILL APPROACH 3 TO 7 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN IN OKLAHOMA. RESIDENTS AND BUSINESSES DOWNSTREAM ALONG THE ARKANSAS RIVER ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST RIVER FORECASTS AS RUNOFF FROM THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BRING THE RIVER BACK OUT OF ITS BANKS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BATESVILLE AR 73 84 71 83 / 40 80 100 100 CAMDEN AR 74 88 74 90 / 70 50 50 50 HARRISON AR 69 77 68 79 / 60 100 100 100 HOT SPRINGS AR 73 84 72 87 / 70 80 90 90 LITTLE ROCK AR 74 87 73 87 / 60 70 90 90 MONTICELLO AR 74 90 74 90 / 50 30 40 50 MOUNT IDA AR 72 82 72 86 / 70 80 90 90 MOUNTAIN HOME AR 70 79 69 78 / 60 100 100 100 NEWPORT AR 74 87 72 85 / 30 70 100 100 PINE BLUFF AR 74 89 74 89 / 60 40 60 70 RUSSELLVILLE AR 72 82 71 84 / 60 90 100 100 SEARCY AR 73 87 72 86 / 40 70 90 100 STUTTGART AR 74 89 73 89 / 40 50 80 80 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR BAXTER-BOONE-CONWAY- FULTON-GARLAND-IZARD-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MARION-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON- PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-SCOTT-SEARCY-STONE-VAN BUREN-YELL. && $$ 65
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
935 AM MST TUE JUN 16 2015 .SYNOPSIS...THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH VERY HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL WEST OF TUCSON WITH SCATTERED MID- LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS ERN SECTIONS AT THIS TIME. FAIRLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT ONGOING WITH DEWPOINTS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS VALID 16Z GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 40S-MID 50S. AWIPS BLENDED TOTAL PRECIP WATER PRODUCT VALID 14Z YIELDED VALUES NEAR 1.0 INCH EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON...AND VALUES OF ONLY AROUND 0.50 INCH ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY. 16/12Z NAM/GFS AND 16/15Z HRRR DEPICT THE POTENTIAL OF FAIRLY EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST-TO-SOUTH OF TUCSON THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS. WILL REDUCE POPS TO SINGLE DIGITS LATE TONIGHT GIVEN THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE PRODUCTS. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN EMPHASIS FOR TODAY WILL BE DAYTIME TEMPS THAT WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 3-7 DEGS F ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS. EXPECT HOTTER DAYTIME TEMPS DURING THE LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE SWRN CONUS. && .AVIATION...VALID THROUGH 17/18Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA WILL PREVAIL MAINLY EAST OF KTUS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 KTS MAY OCCUR. ANY -TSRA/-SHRA SHOULD END BY 17/06Z FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS THRU WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES WEST OF KTUS AND A FEW TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN CLOUDS MAINLY AT 8-12K FT AGL KTUS VICINITY EASTWARD TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER THRU THE PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS. && .FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUCSON EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL THEN PREVAIL WEDNESDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 PERCENT...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS AROUND 15 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ANY THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS. SOME BREEZINESS FROM THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS DUE TO STRONG SURFACE HEATING. OCCASIONAL HAINES 6 CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .PREV DISCUSSION...RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE IN ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD ESSENTIALLY CUT OFF THE MOISTURE INTO ARIZONA...OR AT LEAST PUSH IT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. WILL STILL SHOW MOSTLY SINGLE DIGIT `SILENT` POPS ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN ARIZONA...ALONG THE IMMEDIATE BORDER WITH NEW MEXICO. BY THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS JUST WEST OF THE SRN CALIFORNIA AND NRN BAJA COAST IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD. BY LATE THIS WEEKEND IT IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER ARIZONA. THIS SETUP WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH VERY HOT TEMPERATURES... WITH THE POTENTIAL TO CRACK THAT 110 DEGREE MARK FOR TUCSON AND AREAS WEST...ESPECIALLY FOR SATURDAY...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR FRIDAY AS WELL AS SUNDAY. LOCAL STUDY CORRELATING HIGH TEMPS WITH 850-700MB THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST 109 DEGS FOR FRIDAY...110 DEGS SATURDAY AND 108 DEGS SUNDAY AT TIA. MODELS ALSO SHOW A 592 DECAMETER HIGH OVER THE REGION FRIDAY...593DM SATURDAY AND 594-596 DM HIGH FOR SUNDAY. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THE HOTTEST DAY TO BE ON SUNDAY. ALL THAT SAID...DECIDED TO BUMP UP INHERITED HIGHS JUST A TAD MORE...SO AT THIS POINT I AM GOING WITH 109 DEGS FOR FRIDAY...110 DEGS SATURDAY AND 109 DEGS FOR SUNDAY AT TUCSON. SIMILAR VALUES WILL OCCUR FARTHER WEST OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN PIMA COUNTY. THEREFORE HIGH TEMPS FOR TUCSON GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE 6 TO 8 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY...BUT THE WARMEST DAYS LIKELY TO OCCUR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOWS AROUND 5 TO 7 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WITH THE HIGH SPRAWLED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE A DRY FORECAST. HOWEVER...MODELS DO SHOW ACTIVITY DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTALS FRIDAY AND NUDGING CLOSER TO SOUTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE...I INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG THE BORDERS WITH NEW MEXICO AND OLD MEXICO (SPECIFICALLY PORTIONS OF COCHISE COUNTY). && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON DISCUSSION/AVIATION...FRANCIS PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MOLLERE FIRE WEATHER...FRENCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
251 AM MST TUE JUN 16 2015 .SYNOPSIS...HOTTER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH HOTTEST READINGS BETWEEN 107 AND 112 FROM TUCSON INTO THE LOWER DESERTS THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A MOISTURE INCREASE FROM THE EAST WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME STORMS WILL GENERATE STRONG GUSTY WINDS. EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS WE HEAT UP. && .DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RECENT MODEL DATA SHOWS STRONG RIDGING OFF THE WEST COAST OF BAJA WITH A WEAK TROUGH TO OUR EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG DEMARCATION BETWEEN DRY AIR TO THE WEST AND MORE MOIST AIR TO THE EAST CAN BE SEEN IN WV IMAGERY... WITH THE DRY AIR COVERING MUCH OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC...BAJA... SONORA AS WELL AS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN ARIZONA. THIS DRY/MOIST AIR INTERFACE ACROSS ARIZONA CAN BE QUANTIFIED BY LOOKING AT THE SATELLITE DERIVED BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT WHICH SHOWS VALUES OF AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...AROUND 0.70 - 0.80 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF ARIZONA AND VALUES EXCEEDING AN INCH AND EVEN AROUND 1.3 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LINGERING SCATTERED MID LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS AS WELL AS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THESE DEBRIS CLOUDS HAVE ALSO SPREAD INTO EASTERN ARIZONA OVER PORTIONS OF GREENLEE...GRAHAM AND COCHISE COUNTIES. YESTERDAY THE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED WAS A BIT MORE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THAN ANTICIPATED. WE HAD THE WHITE MOUNTAINS COVERED WELL...BUT GRAHAM AND COCHISE COUNTIES NOT AS MUCH. THERE WAS A WIND GUSTS AT THE SAFFORD AIRPORT OF 51 MPH WITH ONE OF THESE STORMS DROPPING OFF THE RIM. IN ADDITION...HIGH TEMPS TODAY WERE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN EXPECTED...REACHING 108 DEGS AT TIA. THAT SAID...LOOKING AT THE MOST RECENT MODELS IT LOOKS LIKE TODAY WILL BE A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY...THUNDERSTORM WISE...IF NOT A BIT MORE ACTIVE. MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT CAPE MAKING ITS WAY WESTWARD IN THE EASTERLY/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MODELS SHOW LIFTED INDICES OF AROUND MINUS 3 TO 5 OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE HRRR AND THE U OF A WRF/NAM & GFS ALSO SUGGEST A VERY SIMILAR SOLUTION...WHICH SHOWS SCATTERED ACTIVITY BETWEEN TUCSON AND THE BORDER WITH NEW MEXICO. SO...I NUDGED POPS UP JUST A TAD MORE THAN WHAT THE EVENING SHIFT HAD...WHICH MEANS SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER GREENLEE...GRAHAM...COCHISE AND PERHAPS EVEN EASTERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTY...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY AS FAR WEST AS THE TUCSON AREA. WEST OF TUCSON...NO REAL THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION. COULD SEE A FEW OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP BETWEEN TUCSON AND THE NEW MEXICO BORDER PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS (GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH POSSIBLE). RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE IN ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD ESSENTIALLY CUT OFF THE MOISTURE INTO ARIZONA...OR AT LEAST PUSH IT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. WILL STILL SHOW MOSTLY SINGLE DIGIT `SILENT` POPS ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN ARIZONA...ALONG THE IMMEDIATE BORDER WITH NEW MEXICO. BY THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS JUST WEST OF THE SRN CALIFORNIA AND NRN BAJA COAST IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD. BY LATE THIS WEEKEND IT IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER ARIZONA. THIS SETUP WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH VERY HOT TEMPERATURES... WITH THE POTENTIAL TO CRACK THAT 110 DEGREE MARK FOR TUCSON AND AREAS WEST...ESPECIALLY FOR SATURDAY...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR FRIDAY AS WELL AS SUNDAY. LOCAL STUDY CORRELATING HIGH TEMPS WITH 850-700MB THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST 109 DEGS FOR FRIDAY...110 DEGS SATURDAY AND 108 DEGS SUNDAY AT TIA. MODELS ALSO SHOW A 592 DECAMETER HIGH OVER THE REGION FRIDAY...593DM SATURDAY AND 594-596 DM HIGH FOR SUNDAY. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THE HOTTEST DAY TO BE ON SUNDAY. ALL THAT SAID...DECIDED TO BUMP UP INHERITED HIGHS JUST A TAD MORE...SO AT THIS POINT I AM GOING WITH 109 DEGS FOR FRIDAY...110 DEGS SATURDAY AND 109 DEGS FOR SUNDAY AT TUCSON. SIMILAR VALUES WILL OCCUR FARTHER WEST OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN PIMA COUNTY. THEREFORE HIGH TEMPS FOR TUCSON GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE 6 TO 8 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY...BUT THE WARMEST DAYS LIKELY TO OCCUR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOWS AROUND 5 TO 7 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WITH THE HIGH SPRAWLED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE A DRY FORECAST. HOWEVER...MODELS DO SHOW ACTIVITY DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTALS FRIDAY AND NUDGING CLOSER TO SOUTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE...I INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG THE BORDERS WITH NEW MEXICO AND OLD MEXICO (SPECIFICALLY PORTIONS OF COCHISE COUNTY). && .AVIATION...VALID THROUGH 17/12Z. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 10K FT THROUGH MID-MORNING WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO TERRAIN. MOISTURE PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PRIMARILY EAST OF KTUS/KOLS LINE. STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOWS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS WITH SOME AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS. && .FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUCSON EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. OTHERWISE... DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 PERCENT...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS AROUND 15 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ANY THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS. SOME BREEZINESS FROM THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS DUE TO STRONG SURFACE HEATING. OCCASIONAL HAINES 6 CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .CLIMATE...MID-JUNE NEAR RECORD HEAT IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEK. HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR JUNE 16-19. DATE JUNE 16 JUNE 17 JUNE 18 JUNE 19 TUCSON INTL AIRPORT 109/1988 109/2008 113/1989 112/1989 BISBEE-DOUGLAS AIRPORT 104/2008 105/2008 108/1989 108/1989 AJO 112/1916 113/1917 114/1936 114/1968 FORT THOMAS 109/1978 111/1959 111/1960 115/1960 ORGAN PIPE CACTUS 110/1993 111/2001 114/1989 115/1960 PICACHO PEAK 111/2000 111/2008 112/1989 111/2002 SAFFORD AG STATION 102/2000 99/2014 101/2003 101/2008 SIERRA VISTA FD 102/1989 103/1989 107/1989 106/1989 TOMBSTONE 105/1985 105/1980 107/1989 108/1989 WILLCOX 105/1948 105/1985 106/1989 108/1989 && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...MOLLERE AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...FRENCH VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
802 PM MDT WED JUN 17 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 802 PM MDT WED JUN 17 2015 SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORMED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EARLIER TODAY. A FEW STORMS WERE ABLE TO FORM ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE DENVER AREA. SINCE THEN MOST STORMS HAVE DISSIPATED. EVEN THOUGH THE AIRMASS IS UNSTABLE...MID LEVEL WARMING AND A LACK OF LIFTING IS PREVENTING MORE CONVECTION FROM FORMING. WILL LEAVE LOW POPS IN FOR THE EVENING FOR THE AREA...AND THEN END THEM BY MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHEAST CORNER. THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER LARIMER AND WELD COUNTIES AND ALSO OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. STILL POSSIBLE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS ACTIVITY COULD TRIGGER ADDITIONAL STORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 222 PM MDT WED JUN 17 2015 A MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE IS STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND TO PRODUCE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. SOME CAPPING IN THE MID LEVELS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE HRRR DOES SHOW THE STORMS MOVING INTO THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING. BEST CHC OF SVR STORMS WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF DENVER...STILL ENOUGH CAPE/SHEAR TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS. OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. ON THURSDAY...HOTTER AND DRIER IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO COLORADO FM THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE FLOW ALOFT WEAKENING. OVERALL TSTM COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN TODAY. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 222 PM MDT WED JUN 17 2015 UPPER RIDGING IS PROGGED OVER COLORADO FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD... THE EXTENDED PERIOD TOO. THE FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO BE WEAK AND NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY. THERE IS BENIGN SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY ON THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL ADHERE TO NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERNS FOR THE MOST PART. THERE IS SOME STRONGER NORTHEASTERLIES ON SATURDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT MAY GET INTO THE LOWER FOOTHILLS. FOR MOISTURE...THERE IS SOME THURSDAY EVENING...THEN IT DRIES OUT FROM FRIDAY ONWARD. THE QPF FIELDS HAVE A BIT OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL FOR THE CWA THURSDAY EVENING...THE MOST OVER THE FAR EAST. THERE IS VERY LITTLE NO RAINFALL PROGGED THURSDAY OVERNIGHT THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING. WILL GO WITH MINIMAL POPS THURSDAY EVENING...THEN DRY FOR THE CWA THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING. FOR TEMPERATURES...FRIDAY`S HIGHS LOOK TO BE 2-4 C WARMER THAN THURSDAY`S. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE FIRST 90 DEGREE READING OF 2015. SATURDAY`S HIGHS ARE A TAD COOLER. FOR THE LATER DAYS... SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THERE IS MORE UPPER RIDGING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FLOW ALOFT STAYS PRETTY WEAK...BUT IT DOES BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY IN DIRECTION BY MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE NORMALS AND THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 802 PM MDT WED JUN 17 2015 STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 06Z IN THE DENVER AREA. HOWEVER...CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN A TEMPO GROUP. WILL SEE SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 222 PM MDT WED JUN 17 2015 OVERALL THREAT WILL BE LOW TODAY FOR STORM TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING...WITH THE STORMS STILL MOVING AT A FAIRLY DECENT RATE. MAIN CHANGE TO THE HIGHLIGHTS WAS TO EXTEND THE FLOOD WARNING INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON...FOR THE SOUTH PLATTE IN EAST CENTRAL PARK/SOUTHWESTERN DOUGLAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL JEFFERSON COUNTIES...FURTHER DOWNSTREAM TO CHEESMAN RESERVOIR TO INCLUDE ADDITIONAL CAMPGROUNDS IMPACTED BY FLOODWATERS. NO CHANGES TO THE REST OF THE ONGOING FLOOD WARNINGS ALONG THE SOUTH PLATTE. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MEIER SHORT TERM...COOPER LONG TERM...RJK AVIATION...MEIER HYDROLOGY...COOPER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
640 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 640 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015 A WEAK DISTURBANCE CONTINUED TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST- CENTRAL COLORADO...THE FOUR CORNERS AND THE NORTHERN TIER ZONES. STORMS WERE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND MODERATE WIND GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH. EXTRAPOLATED MOVEMENT YIELDED MOVEMENT OF THIS MASS OF MOIST CONVECTION AS GENERALLY EASTWARD AT 20-25 MPH. CONSEQUENTLY...INCREASED POP VALUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY WILL LARGELY PASS EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE MORNING...THOUGH BY THIS TIME THE AREA WILL LIKELY SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO DIURNAL WARMING. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 328 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015 BY SUNRISE THIS MORNING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND AREA OF UPLIFT OVER NORTHWEST CO WILL HAVE MOVED TO SE WY AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...BUT IT APPEARS THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE VORT MAX THAT MOVED THROUGH NORTHERN NV OVERNIGHT AND INTO EASTERN UT WILL STILL BE DRAGGING THROUGH WEST-CENTRAL CO THIS MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS EXITING THE AREA EAST OF EAGLE AND VAIL BEFORE NOON. DRIER AIR WILL THEN CONTINUE FILTERING INTO EASTERN UT AND THEN WESTERN CO. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TONIGHT WILL SEE CONTINUED DRYING AS A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SW U.S. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND RELATIVELY HOT WITH CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND POINTS EAST. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 328 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015 SUBTROPICAL HIGH CORE POSITIONED OVER THE SWRN CONUS SHUTS DOWN ANY MOISTURE PLUMES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A DIGGING SHORT WAVE INTO MONTANA ON SATURDAY TIGHTENS WESTERLY GRADIENT FLOW ACROSS COLORADO. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME AFTERNOON BREEZES...BUT MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER IMPACT GIVEN ROBUST RAIN AMOUNTS DURING THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE...FORECASTED AFTERNOON TEMPS LEAVES NO DOUBT THAT SUMMER HAS ARRIVED. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 537 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015 THE 12Z TAFS REFLECTS HRRR MODEL TRENDS WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS SWEEPING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL COLORADO BETWEEN NOW AND 17Z THIS MORNING. ONCE THIS BAND MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...THEN DIURNAL DRIVEN STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WRN COLORADO. AIR MASS MAY STABILIZE OVER MUCH OF ERN UTAH. BUT MODEST CAPE VALUES STILL EXIST FOR WRN COLORADO FOR SCATTERED STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER SW COLORADO. FOR MOUNTAIN TAF SITES...ANY PASSING STORMS COULD LOWER CIGS BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH DIMINISHING STORMS AFTER 03Z TUESDAY EVENING. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...NONE. UT...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...NL SHORT TERM...CC LONG TERM...PF AVIATION...PF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
537 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 328 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015 BY SUNRISE THIS MORNING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND AREA OF UPLIFT OVER NORTHWEST CO WILL HAVE MOVED TO SE WY AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...BUT IT APPEARS THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE VORT MAX THAT MOVED THROUGH NORTHERN NV OVERNIGHT AND INTO EASTERN UT WILL STILL BE DRAGGING THROUGH WEST-CENTRAL CO THIS MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS EXITING THE AREA EAST OF EAGLE AND VAIL BEFORE NOON. DRIER AIR WILL THEN CONTINUE FILTERING INTO EASTERN UT AND THEN WESTERN CO. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TONIGHT WILL SEE CONTINUED DRYING AS A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SW U.S. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND RELATIVELY HOT WITH CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND POINTS EAST. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 328 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015 SUBTROPICAL HIGH CORE POSITIONED OVER THE SWRN CONUS SHUTS DOWN ANY MOISTURE PLUMES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A DIGGING SHORT WAVE INTO MONTANA ON SATURDAY TIGHTENS WESTERLY GRADIENT FLOW ACROSS COLORADO. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME AFTERNOON BREEZES...BUT MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER IMPACT GIVEN ROBUST RAIN AMOUNTS DURING THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE...FORECASTED AFTERNOON TEMPS LEAVES NO DOUBT THAT SUMMER HAS ARRIVED. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 537 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015 THE 12Z TAFS REFLECTS HRRR MODEL TRENDS WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS SWEEPING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL COLORADO BETWEEN NOW AND 17Z THIS MORNING. ONCE THIS BAND MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...THEN DIURNAL DRIVEN STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WRN COLORADO. AIR MASS MAY STABILIZE OVER MUCH OF ERN UTAH. BUT MODEST CAPE VALUES STILL EXIST FOR WRN COLORADO FOR SCATTERED STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER SW COLORADO. FOR MOUNTAIN TAF SITES...ANY PASSING STORMS COULD LOWER CIGS BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH DIMINISHING STORMS AFTER 03Z TUESDAY EVENING. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...NONE. UT...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CC LONG TERM...PF AVIATION...PF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
328 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 328 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015 BY SUNRISE THIS MORNING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND AREA OF UPLIFT OVER NORTHWEST CO WILL HAVE MOVED TO SE WY AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...BUT IT APPEARS THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE VORT MAX THAT MOVED THROUGH NORTHERN NV OVERNIGHT AND INTO EASTERN UT WILL STILL BE DRAGGING THROUGH WEST-CENTRAL CO THIS MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS EXITING THE AREA EAST OF EAGLE AND VAIL BEFORE NOON. DRIER AIR WILL THEN CONTINUE FILTERING INTO EASTERN UT AND THEN WESTERN CO. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TONIGHT WILL SEE CONTINUED DRYING AS A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SW U.S. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND RELATIVELY HOT WITH CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND POINTS EAST. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 328 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015 SUBTROPICAL HIGH CORE POSITIONED OVER THE SWRN CONUS SHUTS DOWN ANY MOISTURE PLUMES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A DIGGING SHORT WAVE INTO MONTANA ON SATURDAY TIGHTENS WESTERLY GRADIENT FLOW ACROSS COLORADO. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME AFTERNOON BREEZES...BUT MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER IMPACT GIVEN ROBUST RAIN AMOUNTS DURING THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE...FORECASTED AFTERNOON TEMPS LEAVES NO DOUBT THAT SUMMER HAS ARRIVED. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 106 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015 THE 06Z TAFS REFLECTS HRRR MODEL TRENDS WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL COLORADO BETWEEN 10Z-16Z TODAY. ONCE THIS BAND MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...THEN DIURNAL DRIVEN STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WRN COLORADO. AIR MASS MAY STABILIZE OVER MUCH OF ERN UTAH. BUT MODEST CAPE VALUES STILL EXIST FOR WRN COLORADO FOR SCATTERED STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER SW COLORADO. FOR MOUNTAIN TAF SITES...ANY PASSING STORMS COULD LOWER CIGS BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH DIMINISHING STORMS AFTER 03Z TUESDAY EVENING. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...NONE. UT...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CC LONG TERM...PF AVIATION...PF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
106 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 106 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015 SHORT WAVE PROVIDING ENOUGH UPSTAIRS BOOST TO COUNTERACT ANY NOCTURNAL "STABILIZATION". LATEST SATELLITE INFRARED SHOWING POCKETS OF COOLING CLOUD TOPS. THIS SUPPORTS TRENDS OFFERED BY THE HRRR MODEL WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING INTO WEST CENTRAL COLORADO BETWEEN 10Z-16Z. UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS TREND. UPDATE ISSUED AT 814 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER EXTREME NE UT AND NW CO UNTIL A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGH GRADUALLY WEAKENING WITH TIME. THE BEST JET SUPPORT AND UPLIFT APPEARS TO BE SLIDING NORTH OF THE AREA AND BARELY CLIPPING DAGGETT COUNTY. HAVE UPDATED THE PRECIP AND CLOUD GRIDS FOCUSING ON THOSE AREAS WITH HIGHER POPS AND MORE CLOUD UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 313 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2015 THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE A BIT GREATER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME LARGELY DUE TO A SLIGHT UPTICK IN MOISTURE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. STORMS WERE TRACKING TO THE WEST AT AROUND 15 MPH. STRONGER CELLS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL TO 0.5 INCHES WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40 MPH. A SHORTWAVE BRUSHING THE NORTH WILL LIKELY ENHANCE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. DRYNESS IN LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE COMBINED WITH MIDDLING ENERGY COULD GENERATE STRONGER WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER AREAS OF THE FORECAST...POSSIBLY PEAKING IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. THIS WAVE WILL HELP SUSTAIN MOIST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WELL INTO THE EVENING BEFORE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER NEAR NORMAL...BUT JUST A BIT BELOW GUIDANCE. WE ARE GOING TO SEE A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERE BEGIN TO EXPAND OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST STATES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. PWAT ANOMALY TABLES ARE FINALLY SHOWING A DOWNWARD TREND TO MORE SEASONAL READING NEAR A THIRD OF AN INCH OVER EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO BY THURSDAY AND WELL BEYOND. THERE WILL BE A SUBTLE WAVE DROPPING ACROSS INTO OUR CENTRAL CWA TUESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A SECOND WAVE SWINGING ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN LASTLY A WAVE DRIFTING ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS DURING THE LATE EVENING TO EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE PASSING WAVES REMAINS WEAK TO MODERATE AS THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT TOMORROW. REALLY EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO REMAIN FOCUSED ON THE TERRAIN TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEYS WITH THE INITIAL WAVE IN THE AM HOURS TUESDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT DUE TO FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE PUSHING NEAR MID JUNE NORMALS ACROSS THE REGION...TEMPERED ONLY BY REMAINING SNOW PACK AND AREAS STILL SATURATED FROM THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 313 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2015 RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL BE DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WE WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN A ZONAL PATTERN ON THE FRINGE OF THE HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. AS THE DRY PERIOD EXTENDS IN TIME SOILS AND VEGETATION WILL BE DRYING AND THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS WILL SATURDAY WILL BRIEFLY SUPPRESS THE HIGH SOUTHWARD BUT THE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES WILL BE MINIMAL. AS THE RIDGE REBOUNDS ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE SYSTEM...MID LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING IS AT A PEAK ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AND HIGHS IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS MAY EXPAND OUT OF THE 4 CORNERS REGION. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 106 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015 THE 06Z TAFS REFLECTS HRRR MODEL TRENDS WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL COLORADO BETWEEN 10Z-16Z TODAY. ONCE THIS BAND MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...THEN DIURNAL DRIVEN STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WRN COLORADO. AIR MASS MAY STABILIZE OVER MUCH OF ERN UTAH. BUT MODEST CAPE VALUES STILL EXIST FOR WRN COLORADO FOR SCATTERED STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER SW COLORADO. FOR MOUNTAIN TAF SITES...ANY PASSING STORMS COULD LOWER CIGS BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH DIMINISHING STORMS AFTER 03Z TUESDAY EVENING. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 313 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2015 CONDITIONS CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS ALONG RIVERS AND STREAMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DECREASED RAINFALL HAS ALLOWED OPERATORS TO REDUCE RELEASES FROM VALLECITO RESERVOIR AND THE AREAL FLOOD ADVISORY THERE HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THAT SAID...THE LOS PINOS RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH AND FAST. MEANWHILE...BOTH THE ROARING FORK RIVER NEAR ASPEN AND THE EAGLE RIVER NEAR REDCLIFF CONTINUED TO RUN NEAR...OR A LITTLE ABOVE BANKFULL. LATEST FORECASTS FROM CBRFC INDICATED THESE LOCATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HIGH FLOWS THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MOST MOUNTAINS HAVE SEEN THEIR PEAK IN SNOWMELT WHICH...WHEN COMBINED WITH A DRYING TREND LATER THIS WEEK...SHOULD ALLOW WATER FLOW ON RIVERS AND STREAMS TO EASE DOWNWARD. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...NONE. UT...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...PF SHORT TERM...NL/15 LONG TERM...15 AVIATION...PF HYDROLOGY...TGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
139 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND MAY BE PRECEDED BY A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE USHERS SEASONABLE WEATHER INTO THURSDAY PRIOR TO A COLD FRONT AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AND SEASONABLE BENEATH RENEWED HIGH PRESSURE. THOUGH AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WET-WEATHER APPROACHING FROM THE W MEETING UP WITH THE REMNANTS OF BILL. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 130 PM UPDATE... ADJUSTED TIMING OF POPS MAINLY TOWARD THE TIMING OF A LINE OF SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT IN NY. AS EXPECTED...THE LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HOLD IN AND SEVERELY LIMIT DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE CAPPED THUNDER AT ISOLATED...ALTHOUGH THERE IS LIKELY TO BE VERY LITTLE THUNDER AS THIS BAND OF SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. JUST A BRIEF DOWNPOUR AND SOME GUSTY NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS POINT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH LATER TODAY WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH N NEW ENG THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE FROPA EXPECTED THIS EVENING IN SNE. A PREFRONTAL TROF MAY SET UP IN SNE THIS AFTERNOON AND SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND TSTMS. 0-6KM SHEAR OF 35-40 KT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS FAIRLY ROBUST BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE LACKING. ECMWF HAS NO SFC INSTABILITY WHILE NAM/GFS GENERATE AROUND 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE BUT NAM ONLY SHOWING MLCAPES LESS THAN 500 J/KG. IN ADDITION...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER MEAGER. HRRR AND ARW/NMM ALL SHOW SCT CONVECTION MOVING INTO SNE THIS AFTERNOON SO WHILE WE ARE CONFIDENT THAT SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS WILL DEVELOP...THINK SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED UNLESS THERE IS MORE SUN THAN FORECAST ALLOWING FOR GREATER INSTABILITY. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT GIVEN PWATS INCREASING OVER 2". CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 70S TODAY BUT IT WILL BECOME HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 60S. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/... TONIGHT... A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY E HALF NEW ENGLAND THEN COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SNE 00-06Z FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. MIN TEMPS MID 50S TO LOW 60S. WEDNESDAY... LARGE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO NEW ENG BRINGING SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPS MOSTLY 75 TO 80 DEGREES WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. SEABREEZES WILL DEVELOP WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS ALONG THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * SEASONABLE AND DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY * SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT * AGAIN SEASONABLE AND DRY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY * COULD TURN WET BEGINNING SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DISCUSSION... QUASI-ZONAL FLOW THRU WHICH PACIFIC-ORIGIN DISTURBANCES USHER BOUTS OF ACTIVE WEATHER FOLLOWED BY PERIODS OF COOL-DRY RELIEF. THOUGH SOME POTENTIAL FLIES IN THE OINTMENT: 1. MAINTENANCE OF ANOMALOUS HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND THE WATERS S OF NOVA SCOTIA AS INDICATED BY THE 14- AND 30-DAY H5 HEIGHT AND MSLP ANOMALIES... AND 2. REMNANTS OF BILL. A BLEND OF FORECAST GUIDANCE IS PREFERRED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTIES. SO WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE ROUND-A- BOUT PATTERN OF HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER AIR FOLLOWED BY RETURN S/SW- FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER-MAKER WHICH IS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY NIGHT. COULD SEE SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE E-COAST. INTO THURSDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT SWEEPS S NEW ENGLAND BUT WITHIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LACK OF DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FORCING PER FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EMBEDDED HEAVIER RAIN FROM UPSTREAM EARLIER DAYTIME CONVECTIVE ACROSS NY / PA. LITTLE CONFIDENCE CONCERNING CONVECTION / THUNDER. SCATTERED EXPECTATIONS YIELD CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL HOLD FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS DRY. HIGH PRESSURE YIELDS COOL- DRY CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY NW-WINDS ON FRIDAY. PERHAPS A GOOD PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS. RETURN S-FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING. AS WE GO FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THINKING THE INDICATIONS OF A N-STREAM DISTURBANCE MEETING UP WITH THE REMNANTS OF BILL AS INFERRED FROM A CONSENSUS OF FORECAST GUIDANCE WILL MAKE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD OF WET-WEATHER. BUT AGAIN UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST AND THINGS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE. CHANCE POPS WARRANTED. BROAD-BRUSH FORECAST WITH A MENTION OF THUNDER. && .AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 12Z UPDATE... TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THROUGH TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...MAINLY DUE TO TIMING. MIX OF MVFR/IFR ACROSS THE AREA WILL SLOW GIVE WAY TO LOW END VFR BY 20-23Z. AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT SOME SHOWERS WITH GUSTY NW WINDS BEGINNING 20Z IN THE W...THROUGH ABOUT 00Z IN THE E. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WINDS REMAIN MAINLY NW WITH A TRANSITION TO VFR EVERYWHERE THE REST OF THE NIGHT. TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEABREEZES LIKELY. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN EXPECTED TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN EXPECTED TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. WINDS VEERING S. E/SE SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE E-SHORE DURING THE DAY. THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOW-END VFR. POSSIBLE MVFR FOR HIGH TERRAIN. SCT -SHRA. POSSIBLE +RA. S/SW-WINDS BACKING NW AND BECOMING BREEZY WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. NW-BREEZY WINDS FRIDAY TURN LIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT VEERING S BY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARDS THE LATER- HALF OF THE PERIOD. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST PERIOD DRY. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. 7 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES. TODAY...WINDS BECOME SW TODAY WITH SPEEDS WELL BELOW SCA. AREAS OF FOG WILL LIMIT VSBYS THIS MORNING. TONIGHT INTO WED...A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT AND A PERIOD OF POST FRONTAL NORTHERLY GUSTS TO 25-30 KT POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. SCA ISSUED FOR WATERS AROUND AND E OF CAPE COD WHERE STRONGEST GUSTS EXPECTED. WINDS DIMINISH WED AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS VEERING S. PERHAPS BREEZY LATE WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. E/SE SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE E-SHORE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. SEAS REMAIN BELOW 5-FEET. THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SCATTERED SHOWERS DISSIPATING TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING. S/SW-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE...BACKING NW AND REMAINING BREEZY WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TOWARDS MORNING. SEAS REMAIN BELOW 5-FEET. FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. NW-BREEZY WINDS FRIDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS TURN LIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT VEERING S BY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS. INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARDS THE LATER-HALF OF THE PERIOD. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST PERIOD DRY WHILE SEAS REMAIN BELOW 5-FEET. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ231-232-255-256. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ250-254. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KJC/SIPPRELL NEAR TERM...KJC/DOODY SHORT TERM...KJC LONG TERM...SIPPRELL AVIATION...DOODY/SIPPRELL MARINE...KJC/SIPPRELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
957 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND MAY BE PRECEDED BY A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE USHERS SEASONABLE WEATHER INTO THURSDAY PRIOR TO A COLD FRONT AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AND SEASONABLE BENEATH RENEWED HIGH PRESSURE. THOUGH AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WET-WEATHER APPROACHING FROM THE W MEETING UP WITH THE REMNANTS OF BILL. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 10 AM UPDATE... SO FAR NOT SO GOOD IF YOU ARE A THUNDERSTORM FAN. VISIBILITY SAT AND WEBCAMS CONFIRM STILL A LOT OF LOW LVL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION WHICH IS PREVENTING TEMPS FROM RISING OUT OF THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS ARE STILL TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH CLEARING SO IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT THE FINAL 12Z RUNS AND LATEST MESO-SCALE GUIDANCE CAN COME UP WITH. EVEN THE BREAKS TO THE W ARE FILLING IN AS LEFTOVER CLOUD DEBRIS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME -SHRA ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE W. FINAL STABILITY WILL ULTIMATELY BE DETERMINED BY BREAKS SO WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES...BUT UNLESS SOMETHING CHANGES RELATIVELY SOON IT MAY BE TOO LITTLE TOO LATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH LATER TODAY WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH N NEW ENG THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE FROPA EXPECTED THIS EVENING IN SNE. A PREFRONTAL TROF MAY SET UP IN SNE THIS AFTERNOON AND SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND TSTMS. 0-6KM SHEAR OF 35-40 KT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS FAIRLY ROBUST BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE LACKING. ECMWF HAS NO SFC INSTABILITY WHILE NAM/GFS GENERATE AROUND 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE BUT NAM ONLY SHOWING MLCAPES LESS THAN 500 J/KG. IN ADDITION...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER MEAGER. HRRR AND ARW/NMM ALL SHOW SCT CONVECTION MOVING INTO SNE THIS AFTERNOON SO WHILE WE ARE CONFIDENT THAT SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS WILL DEVELOP...THINK SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED UNLESS THERE IS MORE SUN THAN FORECAST ALLOWING FOR GREATER INSTABILITY. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT GIVEN PWATS INCREASING OVER 2". CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 70S TODAY BUT IT WILL BECOME HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 60S. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/... TONIGHT... A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY E HALF NEW ENGLAND THEN COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SNE 00-06Z FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. MIN TEMPS MID 50S TO LOW 60S. WEDNESDAY... LARGE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO NEW ENG BRINGING SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPS MOSTLY 75 TO 80 DEGREES WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. SEABREEZES WILL DEVELOP WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS ALONG THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * SEASONABLE AND DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY * SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT * AGAIN SEASONABLE AND DRY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY * COULD TURN WET BEGINNING SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DISCUSSION... QUASI-ZONAL FLOW THRU WHICH PACIFIC-ORIGIN DISTURBANCES USHER BOUTS OF ACTIVE WEATHER FOLLOWED BY PERIODS OF COOL-DRY RELIEF. THOUGH SOME POTENTIAL FLIES IN THE OINTMENT: 1. MAINTENANCE OF ANOMALOUS HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND THE WATERS S OF NOVA SCOTIA AS INDICATED BY THE 14- AND 30-DAY H5 HEIGHT AND MSLP ANOMALIES... AND 2. REMNANTS OF BILL. A BLEND OF FORECAST GUIDANCE IS PREFERRED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTIES. SO WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE ROUND-A- BOUT PATTERN OF HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER AIR FOLLOWED BY RETURN S/SW- FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER-MAKER WHICH IS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY NIGHT. COULD SEE SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE E-COAST. INTO THURSDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT SWEEPS S NEW ENGLAND BUT WITHIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LACK OF DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FORCING PER FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EMBEDDED HEAVIER RAIN FROM UPSTREAM EARLIER DAYTIME CONVECTIVE ACROSS NY / PA. LITTLE CONFIDENCE CONCERNING CONVECTION / THUNDER. SCATTERED EXPECTATIONS YIELD CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL HOLD FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS DRY. HIGH PRESSURE YIELDS COOL- DRY CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY NW-WINDS ON FRIDAY. PERHAPS A GOOD PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS. RETURN S-FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING. AS WE GO FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THINKING THE INDICATIONS OF A N-STREAM DISTURBANCE MEETING UP WITH THE REMNANTS OF BILL AS INFERRED FROM A CONSENSUS OF FORECAST GUIDANCE WILL MAKE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD OF WET-WEATHER. BUT AGAIN UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST AND THINGS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE. CHANCE POPS WARRANTED. BROAD-BRUSH FORECAST WITH A MENTION OF THUNDER. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 12Z UPDATE... TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR STRATUS/FOG IMPROVING TO MVFR/LOW-END VFR CIGS WITH LESS IMPACT DUE TO VSBY TOWARDS MIDDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...SLOWER ALONG THE COASTS. SHRA 16Z-22Z THOUGH EXACT DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN. PREVAILED VCSH. LOW CONFIDENCE TSRA. WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE S THROUGH THE DAY. TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. IMPROVING TO VFR AS WINDS SHIFT TO NW BEHIND A COLD FRONT...BUT AREAS OF IFR STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG OVER CAPE/ISLANDS WILL LINGER THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEABREEZES LIKELY. KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. IMPROVING TO MVFR/VFR THIS MORNING AS WINDS BECOME S/SW. KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TSRA POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF CIGS SHOULD BECOME SCT-BKN. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. WINDS VEERING S. E/SE SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE E-SHORE DURING THE DAY. THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOW-END VFR. POSSIBLE MVFR FOR HIGH TERRAIN. SCT -SHRA. POSSIBLE +RA. S/SW-WINDS BACKING NW AND BECOMING BREEZY WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. NW-BREEZY WINDS FRIDAY TURN LIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT VEERING S BY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARDS THE LATER- HALF OF THE PERIOD. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST PERIOD DRY. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. 7 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES. TODAY...WINDS BECOME SW TODAY WITH SPEEDS WELL BELOW SCA. AREAS OF FOG WILL LIMIT VSBYS THIS MORNING. TONIGHT INTO WED...A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT AND A PERIOD OF POST FRONTAL NORTHERLY GUSTS TO 25-30 KT POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. SCA ISSUED FOR WATERS AROUND AND E OF CAPE COD WHERE STRONGEST GUSTS EXPECTED. WINDS DIMINISH WED AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS VEERING S. PERHAPS BREEZY LATE WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. E/SE SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE E-SHORE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. SEAS REMAIN BELOW 5-FEET. THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SCATTERED SHOWERS DISSIPATING TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING. S/SW-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE...BACKING NW AND REMAINING BREEZY WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TOWARDS MORNING. SEAS REMAIN BELOW 5-FEET. FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. NW-BREEZY WINDS FRIDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS TURN LIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT VEERING S BY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS. INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARDS THE LATER-HALF OF THE PERIOD. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST PERIOD DRY WHILE SEAS REMAIN BELOW 5-FEET. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ231-232-255-256. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ250-254. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KJC/SIPPRELL NEAR TERM...KJC/DOODY SHORT TERM...KJC LONG TERM...SIPPRELL AVIATION...KJC/SIPPRELL MARINE...KJC/SIPPRELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
710 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND MAY BE PRECEDED BY A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE USHERS SEASONABLE WEATHER INTO THURSDAY PRIOR TO A COLD FRONT AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AND SEASONABLE BENEATH RENEWED HIGH PRESSURE. THOUGH AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WET-WEATHER APPROACHING FROM THE W MEETING UP WITH THE REMNANTS OF BILL. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 7 AM UPDATE... SOUPY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT AND IMPROVE AS WINDS INCREASE S/SW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THOUGH A CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER CLOUDS BREAK ALLOWING FOR SUNSHINE. AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG TOUGH THROUGHOUT THE DAY LIMITING INSTABILITY TOWARDS AFTERNOON SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING-FORECAST. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION APPLIES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH LATER TODAY WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH N NEW ENG THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE FROPA EXPECTED THIS EVENING IN SNE. A PREFRONTAL TROF MAY SET UP IN SNE THIS AFTERNOON AND SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND TSTMS. 0-6KM SHEAR OF 35-40 KT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS FAIRLY ROBUST BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE LACKING. ECMWF HAS NO SFC INSTABILITY WHILE NAM/GFS GENERATE AROUND 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE BUT NAM ONLY SHOWING MLCAPES LESS THAN 500 J/KG. IN ADDITION...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER MEAGER. HRRR AND ARW/NMM ALL SHOW SCT CONVECTION MOVING INTO SNE THIS AFTERNOON SO WHILE WE ARE CONFIDENT THAT SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS WILL DEVELOP...THINK SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED UNLESS THERE IS MORE SUN THAN FORECAST ALLOWING FOR GREATER INSTABILITY. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT GIVEN PWATS INCREASING OVER 2". CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 70S TODAY BUT IT WILL BECOME HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 60S. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/... TONIGHT... A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY E HALF NEW ENGLAND THEN COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SNE 00-06Z FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. MIN TEMPS MID 50S TO LOW 60S. WEDNESDAY... LARGE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO NEW ENG BRINGING SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPS MOSTLY 75 TO 80 DEGREES WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. SEABREEZES WILL DEVELOP WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS ALONG THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * SEASONABLE AND DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY * SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT * AGAIN SEASONABLE AND DRY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY * COULD TURN WET BEGINNING SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DISCUSSION... QUASI-ZONAL FLOW THRU WHICH PACIFIC-ORIGIN DISTURBANCES USHER BOUTS OF ACTIVE WEATHER FOLLOWED BY PERIODS OF COOL-DRY RELIEF. THOUGH SOME POTENTIAL FLIES IN THE OINTMENT: 1. MAINTENANCE OF ANOMALOUS HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND THE WATERS S OF NOVA SCOTIA AS INDICATED BY THE 14- AND 30-DAY H5 HEIGHT AND MSLP ANOMALIES... AND 2. REMNANTS OF BILL. A BLEND OF FORECAST GUIDANCE IS PREFERRED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTIES. SO WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE ROUND-A- BOUT PATTERN OF HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER AIR FOLLOWED BY RETURN S/SW- FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER-MAKER WHICH IS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY NIGHT. COULD SEE SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE E-COAST. INTO THURSDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT SWEEPS S NEW ENGLAND BUT WITHIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LACK OF DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FORCING PER FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EMBEDDED HEAVIER RAIN FROM UPSTREAM EARLIER DAYTIME CONVECTIVE ACROSS NY / PA. LITTLE CONFIDENCE CONCERNING CONVECTION / THUNDER. SCATTERED EXPECTATIONS YIELD CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL HOLD FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS DRY. HIGH PRESSURE YIELDS COOL- DRY CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY NW-WINDS ON FRIDAY. PERHAPS A GOOD PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS. RETURN S-FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING. AS WE GO FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THINKING THE INDICATIONS OF A N-STREAM DISTURBANCE MEETING UP WITH THE REMNANTS OF BILL AS INFERRED FROM A CONSENSUS OF FORECAST GUIDANCE WILL MAKE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD OF WET-WEATHER. BUT AGAIN UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST AND THINGS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE. CHANCE POPS WARRANTED. BROAD-BRUSH FORECAST WITH A MENTION OF THUNDER. && .AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 12Z UPDATE... TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR STRATUS/FOG IMPROVING TO MVFR/LOW-END VFR CIGS WITH LESS IMPACT DUE TO VSBY TOWARDS MIDDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...SLOWER ALONG THE COASTS. SHRA 16Z-22Z THOUGH EXACT DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN. PREVAILED VCSH. LOW CONFIDENCE TSRA. WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE S THROUGH THE DAY. TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. IMPROVING TO VFR AS WINDS SHIFT TO NW BEHIND A COLD FRONT...BUT AREAS OF IFR STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG OVER CAPE/ISLANDS WILL LINGER THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEABREEZES LIKELY. KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. IMPROVING TO MVFR/VFR THIS MORNING AS WINDS BECOME S/SW. KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TSRA POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF CIGS SHOULD BECOME SCT-BKN. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. WINDS VEERING S. E/SE SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE E-SHORE DURING THE DAY. THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOW-END VFR. POSSIBLE MVFR FOR HIGH TERRAIN. SCT -SHRA. POSSIBLE +RA. S/SW-WINDS BACKING NW AND BECOMING BREEZY WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. NW-BREEZY WINDS FRIDAY TURN LIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT VEERING S BY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARDS THE LATER- HALF OF THE PERIOD. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST PERIOD DRY. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. 7 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES. TODAY...WINDS BECOME SW TODAY WITH SPEEDS WELL BELOW SCA. AREAS OF FOG WILL LIMIT VSBYS THIS MORNING. TONIGHT INTO WED...A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT AND A PERIOD OF POST FRONTAL NORTHERLY GUSTS TO 25-30 KT POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. SCA ISSUED FOR WATERS AROUND AND E OF CAPE COD WHERE STRONGEST GUSTS EXPECTED. WINDS DIMINISH WED AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS VEERING S. PERHAPS BREEZY LATE WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. E/SE SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE E-SHORE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. SEAS REMAIN BELOW 5-FEET. THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SCATTERED SHOWERS DISSIPATING TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING. S/SW-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE...BACKING NW AND REMAINING BREEZY WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TOWARDS MORNING. SEAS REMAIN BELOW 5-FEET. FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. NW-BREEZY WINDS FRIDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS TURN LIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT VEERING S BY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS. INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARDS THE LATER-HALF OF THE PERIOD. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST PERIOD DRY WHILE SEAS REMAIN BELOW 5-FEET. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ231-232-255-256. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ250-254. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KJC/SIPPRELL NEAR TERM...KJC/SIPPRELL SHORT TERM...KJC LONG TERM...SIPPRELL AVIATION...KJC/SIPPRELL MARINE...KJC/SIPPRELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
314 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND MAY BE PRECEDED BY A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE USHERS SEASONABLE WEATHER INTO THURSDAY PRIOR TO A COLD FRONT AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AND SEASONABLE BENEATH RENEWED HIGH PRESSURE. THOUGH AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WET-WEATHER APPROACHING FROM THE W MEETING UP WITH THE REMNANTS OF BILL. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TODAY AS WINDS BECOME S/SW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...CROSS SECTIONS SHOW CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN SO EXPECT CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHICH MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY. MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH LATER TODAY WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH N NEW ENG THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE FROPA EXPECTED THIS EVENING IN SNE. A PREFRONTAL TROF MAY SET UP IN SNE THIS AFTERNOON AND SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND TSTMS. 0-6KM SHEAR OF 35-40 KT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS FAIRLY ROBUST BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE LACKING. ECMWF HAS NO SFC INSTABILITY WHILE NAM/GFS GENERATE AROUND 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE BUT NAM ONLY SHOWING MLCAPES LESS THAN 500 J/KG. IN ADDITION...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER MEAGER. HRRR AND ARW/NMM ALL SHOW SCT CONVECTION MOVING INTO SNE THIS AFTERNOON SO WHILE WE ARE CONFIDENT THAT SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS WILL DEVELOP...THINK SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED UNLESS THERE IS MORE SUN THAN FORECAST ALLOWING FOR GREATER INSTABILITY. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT GIVEN PWATS INCREASING OVER 2". CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 70S TODAY BUT IT WILL BECOME HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 60S. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... TONIGHT... A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY E HALF NEW ENGLAND THEN COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SNE 00-06Z FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. MIN TEMPS MID 50S TO LOW 60S. WEDNESDAY... LARGE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO NEW ENG BRINGING SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPS MOSTLY 75 TO 80 DEGREES WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. SEABREEZES WILL DEVELOP WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS ALONG THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * SEASONABLE AND DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY * SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT * AGAIN SEASONABLE AND DRY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY * COULD TURN WET BEGINNING SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DISCUSSION... QUASI-ZONAL FLOW THRU WHICH PACIFIC-ORIGIN DISTURBANCES USHER BOUTS OF ACTIVE WEATHER FOLLOWED BY PERIODS OF COOL-DRY RELIEF. THOUGH SOME POTENTIAL FLIES IN THE OINTMENT: 1. MAINTENANCE OF ANOMALOUS HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND THE WATERS S OF NOVA SCOTIA AS INDICATED BY THE 14- AND 30-DAY H5 HEIGHT AND MSLP ANOMALIES... AND 2. REMNANTS OF BILL. A BLEND OF FORECAST GUIDANCE IS PREFERRED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTIES. SO WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE ROUND-A- BOUT PATTERN OF HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER AIR FOLLOWED BY RETURN S/SW- FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER-MAKER WHICH IS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY NIGHT. COULD SEE SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE E-COAST. INTO THURSDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT SWEEPS S NEW ENGLAND BUT WITHIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LACK OF DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FORCING PER FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EMBEDDED HEAVIER RAIN FROM UPSTREAM EARLIER DAYTIME CONVECTIVE ACROSS NY / PA. LITTLE CONFIDENCE CONCERNING CONVECTION / THUNDER. SCATTERED EXPECTATIONS YIELD CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL HOLD FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS DRY. HIGH PRESSURE YIELDS COOL- DRY CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY NW-WINDS ON FRIDAY. PERHAPS A GOOD PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS. RETURN S-FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING. AS WE GO FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THINKING THE INDICATIONS OF A N-STREAM DISTURBANCE MEETING UP WITH THE REMNANTS OF BILL AS INFERRED FROM A CONSENSUS OF FORECAST GUIDANCE WILL MAKE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD OF WET-WEATHER. BUT AGAIN UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST AND THINGS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE. CHANCE POPS WARRANTED. BROAD-BRUSH FORECAST WITH A MENTION OF THUNDER. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 12Z...WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR IN STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG. TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR/LIFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR WITH SOME VFR POSSIBLE AWAY FROM THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. TIMING OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS IS UNCERTAIN. SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. IMPROVING TO VFR AS WINDS SHIFT TO NW BEHIND A COLD FRONT...BUT AREAS OF IFR STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG OVER CAPE/ISLANDS WILL LINGER THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEABREEZES LIKELY. KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. IMPROVING TO MVFR/VFR LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS WINDS BECOME S/SW. KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. WINDS VEERING S. E/SE SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE E-SHORE DURING THE DAY. THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOW-END VFR. POSSIBLE MVFR FOR HIGH TERRAIN. SCT -SHRA. POSSIBLE +RA. S/SW-WINDS BACKING NW AND BECOMING BREEZY WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. NW-BREEZY WINDS FRIDAY TURN LIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT VEERING S BY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARDS THE LATER- HALF OF THE PERIOD. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST PERIOD DRY. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. TODAY...WINDS BECOME SW TODAY WITH SPEEDS WELL BELOW SCA. AREAS OF FOG WILL LIMIT VSBYS THIS MORNING. TONIGHT INTO WED...A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT AND A PERIOD OF POST FRONTAL NORTHERLY GUSTS TO 25-30 KT POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. SCA ISSUED FOR WATERS AROUND AND E OF CAPE COD WHERE STRONGEST GUSTS EXPECTED. WINDS DIMINISH WED AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS VEERING S. PERHAPS BREEZY LATE WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. E/SE SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE E-SHORE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. SEAS REMAIN BELOW 5-FEET. THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SCATTERED SHOWERS DISSIPATING TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING. S/SW-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE...BACKING NW AND REMAINING BREEZY WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TOWARDS MORNING. SEAS REMAIN BELOW 5-FEET. FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. NW-BREEZY WINDS FRIDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS TURN LIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT VEERING S BY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS. INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARDS THE LATER-HALF OF THE PERIOD. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST PERIOD DRY WHILE SEAS REMAIN BELOW 5-FEET. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ231-232-255-256. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ250-254. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KJC/SIPPRELL NEAR TERM...KJC SHORT TERM...KJC LONG TERM...SIPPRELL AVIATION...KJC/SIPPRELL MARINE...KJC/SIPPRELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
905 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 THE BULK OF THE FORCING FOR PRECIP HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST FOR THE TIME BEING. RAP OUTPUT SHOWS GRADUAL INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE HRRR IS MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING AFTER 11Z ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70, AND SPOTTY SHOWERS FROM JACKSONVILLE TO SPRINGFIELD. HAVE REDUCED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING, AND WENT WITH INCREASING POPS TO HIGHER CHANCE FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 08Z/3AM TO 12Z/7AM TONIGHT. A BAND OF SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM ACROSS IOWA AND THE SURGE OF MOISTURE AND SHOWERS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI LENDS SOME CONFIDENCE TO SOME PRECIP DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT IN THE WEST AT LEAST. CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP LOW TEMPS ON THE MILD SIDE, IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S, WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED. UPDATED FORECAST INFO IS ALREADY AVAILABLE. && .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL IL HAS BEEN HARD TO MOVE TODAY AS PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE AFFECTED AIRMASS CHANGES. BROAD BOUNDARY OF AIRMASS DIFFERENCES FROM 60S IN NORTHERN IL AND 70S TO 80S IN SOUTH. AMPLE VERY MOIST AIRMASS OVER REGION HAS KEPT PCPN MOVING OVER AREA THROUGH THE DAY...BUT THE PCPN HAS BEEN RAINFALL PRODUCERS THAT ARE MOVING ENOUGH TO PRODUCE QUICK BURST OF HEAVY RAIN AND THEN MOVE ON. MUCAPES OVER AREA IN THE 1000-2000 RANGE BUT WITH A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SHEAR. MOISTURE CHANNEL DATA CONTINUES TO SHOWS FETCH OF DEEP MOISTURE FROM OK/TX SYSTEM INTO MO AND IL. EXPECT A BRIEF TEMPORARY LULL IN PCPN IN THE LATE EVENING DUE TO WEAK UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH...AND THEN STARTING BY MIDNIGHT...CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN. MOISTURE FETCH WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN AREA OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS PSBL. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH OF IL THURSDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL IL DURING THE DAY...WHILE RICH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UP TO AROUND 2 INCHES STREAM INTO SOUTHEAST IL AHEAD OF THE REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM BILL. STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT...AND POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY IN THE MOISTURE RICH PLUME AHEAD OF BILL REMNANTS COULD RESULT IN SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY WITH A STRONG WIND GUST THREAT AS WELL AS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. THE MITIGATING FACTORS WILL BE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT TENDING TO REDUCE INSTABILITY. SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN OR CENTRAL IL LOOKS TO BE A CONTINUED FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL INTO FRIDAY AS MODELS MOVE BILL REMNANTS TOWARD SOUTHERN IL...GENERALLY SPREADING WIDESPREAD RAIN INTO SOUTHERN IL FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY FRIDAY BEFORE THE MAIN SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST IL. 12Z NAM IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER THAN CONSENSUS OF OTHER MODELS WITH THE MOVEMENT OF BILL...SO THIS OUTLIER SCENARIO IS LESS LIKELY. TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO TRACK THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS...AND THEREFORE THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST FAVORED AREA FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION. FOLLOWING BILL...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL LIKELY BRING A GAP IN PRECIPITATION FOR 12 HOURS OR SO SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE/COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY. TIMING OF THIS DRIER PERIOD REMAINS PROBLEMATIC THIS FAR OUT...SO FORECAST POPS THIS PERIOD CONTINUE TO REFLECT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE CATEGORY. HIGHS SHOULD INCREASE TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IL SATURDAY IN THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEHIND BILL. A LARGE SCALE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. SHOULD BRING A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND. HAVE GONE WITH A DRY TO SLIGHT CHANCE PRECIP FORECAST FOR TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY. HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 MVFR CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS COULD DRIFT NEAR SPI AND DEC AS THE PRIMARY STORM TRACK REMAINS SOUTH OF OUR TERMINAL SITES THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE INDICATED IN THE RAP13 MODEL AFTER 10Z TONIGHT, WITH THE HRRR DRY UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE NEAR ANY TERMINAL SITES. WE COULD SEE CLOUD HEIGHTS LIFT TO VFR THIS EVENING, BUT MVFR CLOUDS SHOULD RETURN LATER TONIGHT AS PRECIP CHANCES RAMP UP JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME MVFR FOG DOWN TO 4SM AROUND BMI, AND POSSIBLY OTHER SITES AS WELL. WENT CONSERVATIVE WITH FOG FOR NOW AND JUST INCLUDED AT BMI. STORM CHANCES INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON, AS A WAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. A VCTS WAS INCLUDED AFTER 16-18Z WITH VFR CLOUDS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SOUTHWEST THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING, THEN SHIFT MORE WESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS REACHING 10-12KT AT TIMES. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SHIMON SHORT TERM...GOETSCH LONG TERM...ONTON AVIATION...SHIMON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
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
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
120 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 A COLD FRONT OVER WISCONSIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT CAUSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER CENTRAL INDIANA TUESDAY... CONFINING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA AND THEN LIFT BACK NORTH ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN BACK TO THE AREA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S... WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH HAS BEEN STNRY FOR SOME TIME TO OUR NORTH WAS BEGINNING TO MAKE SEWD PROGRESS TODAY IN RESPONSE TO A SHRTWV MOVG ACROSS ONTARIO MERGING WITH SECOND SYSTEM LIFTING NE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA WITH PWATS AROUND 2" HAS DESTABILIZED IN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY ALLOWING NUMEROUS TSTMS TO DEVELOP. SOME BACKBUILDING/TRAINING CELLS OCRG ATTM AS SUGGESTED BY RAP 5-10KT UPWIND PROPAGATION VECTORS. LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS SCT-NUMEROUS STORMS WILL CONT LATE THIS AFTN AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MORE WIDESPREAD TSTMS FORMING ALONG THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTN AND MOVG THROUGH OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. THUS... STILL APPEARS TO BE A GOOD SETUP FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS OUR AREA SO FFA ISSUED EARLIER TODAY WILL CONT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. CDFNT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE STALLING OUT ON TUE. SOME LINGERING POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS PSBL IN THE MORNING AND WK INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW A FEW MORE TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN... BUT OVERALL APPEARS TO BE A DAY TO DRY OUT. WK CAA BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE 60S TONIGHT WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH THE L-M80S ON TUE. && .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 WET PATTERN AND FLOODING CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A CONSISTENT SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FEED PUMPS PWAT VALUES AOA 2.0" INTO THE CWA. ONLY DAY OF RELIEF IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD MAY BE FRIDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SLIDES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND TRIES TO SLIDE OUR PESKY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD. SOME PRECIP IS STILL POSSIBLE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY...BUT THE HIGHLY EFFICIENT WARM CLOUD PROCESSES WILL CEASE NORTH OF THE FRONT. THE REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY IN THE WESTERN GULF ADVECT INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND RETURN THE MUGGY CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHERN LAKES. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THE TROPICAL SYSTEM MAY PHASE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND DEVELOP A SUB 1000MB SURFACE REFLECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE GREAT LAKES. A DECENT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MAY BE JUST WHAT WE NEED TO FINALLY SHUNT THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND USHER IN DRIER CONDITIONS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS OVER AND STRATIFORM RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AS SURFACE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. SOME POSTFRONTAL IFR STRATUS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...BUT UPSTREAM SURFACE OBS ARE HIGHLY VARIABLE SO JUST WENT WITH TEMPO MENTION FOR NOW. STRONG PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE/DRY AIR WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ EARLY THIS MORNING FOR INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034. MI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MIZ077>081. OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR OHZ001- 002-004-005-015-016-024-025. LM...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JT SHORT TERM...JT LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL AVIATION...AGD VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
659 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR THE IA/MN BORDER TO THE QUAD CITIES AND THEN TO NORTHERN INDIANA. NORTH OF THE FRONT DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE LOWER 60S (IN THE 50S IN WI) BUT TO THE SOUTH DEWS WERE WELL INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE CWA WERE IN THE 70S WHICH HAS BEEN HELD DOWN BY EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS TODAY. A COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING INTO SW MN AND INTO WESTERN IA AND THEN TO NW KS. MIDWEST MOSAIC RADAR LOOPS INDICATE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM CENTRAL MO TO WESTERN IL AND THEN INTO EASTERN IL. ELSEWHERE... A FEW STRONGER STORMS WERE NOTED IN NORTHCENTRAL IOWA AND SE MN WHERE SBCAPES WERE 2500 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WAS STRONG AT 50 KNOTS. ACROSS THE DVN CWA DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER INSTABILITY WAS VERY MINIMAL AND SHEAR IS WEAK AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THIS WAY. PRECIPITABLE WATERS IN THE CWA WERE AROUND 1.5 INCHES WITH THE OVER 2 INCH PWATS FROM TX TO SOUTHERN IL. TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL WAS LOCATED IN THE DALLAS/FT. WORTH METROPLEX EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 FORECAST FOCUS ON CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. TONIGHT...OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE VERY MUCH IN DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTIVE TRENDS. ECMWF IS ESSENTIALLY DRY WHILE THE GFS IS THE WETTEST. THE NAM IGNITES THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN OUR FAR SOUTH WHILE THE HI-RES HRRR MESO MODEL BRINGS WEAKENING THUNDERSTORMS INTO OUR NW CWA THIS EVENING AND LEAVES THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT DRY. I WILL ESSENTIALLY BE TAKING A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH AND LEAVING POPS IN THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE. FORCING/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK ALONG WITH MINIMAL INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE CWA AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL NEED TO MENTION AT LEAST A SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED BUT THERE MAY BE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS ESPECIALLY BEFORE SUNSET. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH. THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY PROBABLY ALONG HIGHWAY 34 AS THE REMNANTS OF BILL TRACKS NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON. OUR NORTH WILL GRADUALLY SEE DRIER AIR WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 50S DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL REMAIN IN THE JUICY AIRMASS AS THE FRONT STALLS. AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY SO I WILL MAINTAIN THE 40-50 POPS. THE BULK OF THE MODELS KEEP THE HEAVIEST RAINS SOUTH OF THE DVN CWA. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL..NOW SHOWN TRACKING WELL TO THE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN MO INTO SOUTHERN IL THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...WILL KEEP MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A QUIET WEATHER REGIME FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. MORE ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS LATE SATURDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS A FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BECOMES STALLED OUT. THIS WILL PROVIDE NEARLY DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THURSDAY NIGHT...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER ALBERTA IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER SHOT OF DRY EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WELL INTO EASTERN IA THROUGH MIDDAY FRI. THE ONLY POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE REMNANT SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT WASHES OUT FROM NORTHERN MO INTO CENTRAL IL OVERNIGHT AND HAVE LOW POPS IN PLACE. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIMITED TO EARLY EVENING...ANTICIPATING THE VERY LOW MODEL MUCAPES AND STABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE OVERNIGHT. SOMEWHAT LIKE THIS MORNING...THE DRY AIR WITH DEWPOINTS LOWERING INTO THE 50S OVER IL...WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO COOL INTO THE MID 50S NE TO LOWER 60S SW. WITH AT LEAST HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER LIKELY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 FRIDAY WITH SURFACE WINDS BACKING TO THE SOUTH BY EVENING AS THE HIGH RETREATS EASTWARD. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SOUTHERLY WINDS EDGE DEWPOINTS BACK UPWARDS AND THE REMNANT WEAK CONVERGENT BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. SATURDAY...BILL DISSIPATES TO THE SE AS AN INCOMING FRONT AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH BECOME THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES. STRONG THETAE ADVECTION FEEDING INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AN MCS THAT IS LIKELY TO PUSH THROUGH WITH THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY POPS ARE MAINTAINED. HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS...WITH PW VALUES POSSIBLE NEAR 2 INCHES...WILL BRING THE FIRST THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN BACK INTO THE FORECAST. STRONG PREFRONTAL WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL SEND HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S WHILE DEWPOINTS LIKELY RETURN TO THE LOWER 70S. THIS WILL LEAD TO UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS WITH SEVERE STORMS AS OUTLINED IN THE SPC DAY 4 SEVERE OUTLOOK 15 PERCENT AREA CENTERED OVER EASTERN IA. SUNDAY THROUGH WED...THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW HAVE BETTER AGREEMENT DEPICTING THE WEST TO EAST FRONT...SUPPRESSED TO NORTHERN MO SUNDAY NIGHT...LIFTING BACK NORTH AND BECOMING STALLED OUT ROUGHLY ALONG HIGHWAY 30 BY TUE NIGHT. THE MODELS THEN DEPART WITH THE ECMWF LIFTING THE BOUNDARY NORTH INTO MN AND SOUTHERN WI WHILE THE GFS IS FURTHER SOUTH. EITHER WAY...WITH AN ACTIVE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND UPPER JET TRACK JUST TO THE NORTH...THE SETUP IS PRIME FOR AN ACTIVE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES THROUGHOUT. FOR NOW...HAVE HIGHER POPS IN THE NORTH CLOSER TO THE MOST LIKELY FRONTAL POSITION. WITH AN OPEN FEED OF GULF MOISTURE... SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE A DAILY THREAT. THIS WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF FLOODING ON AREA RIVERS THAT WILL LIKELY HAVE RETURNED TO THEIR BANKS BY THIS TIME. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 A BKN MVFR DECK WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACRS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS UP NORTH OF I80. THIS WILL MAKE FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AROUND THE FRONT...THEN GO LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWEST. WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING IN ACRS CENTRAL IA INTO NORTHEAST MN...ISOLATED TO WDLY SCTRD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE EVENING AT CID AND DBQ...BUT COVERAGE MAY BE TOO SPARSE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS ATTM. LATE TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER GETTING INTO THE VCNTY OF ALL TAF SITES AS THE FRONT SAGS ACRS THE LOCAL AREA. AGAIN COVERAGE AT QUESTION AT THIS JUNCTURE AND WILL NOT INCLUDE VCNTY WORDING. SOME FOG AND LOWERING CIGS TO AT LEAST LOWER LEVEL MVFR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT IN THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT...ISOLATED IFR JUST BEFORE DAWN. AS THU PROGRESSES...EXPECT VEERING AND INCREASING SFC WINDS TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST WITH DECREASING CIGS BY LATE MORNING. ALL EXCEPT BRL WHERE THE FRONT MAY HANG UP JUST TO THE SOUTH AND KEEP THE THREAT OF SCTRD SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. ..12.. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HAASE SHORT TERM...HAASE LONG TERM...SHEETS AVIATION...12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
335 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 PLEASANT DAY IN STORE ACROSS MOST OF THE DVN CWA WITH AN EAST WIND BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA...COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. PRECIPITABLE WATERS WERE LESS THAN AN INCH AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. HOWEVER...IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES DEWS WERE IN THE MID 60S AND PWATS A BIT OVER AN INCH. FARTHER SOUTH THE REALLY HIGH PWATS WERE LURKING WITH OVER 2 INCHES AS YOU GET DOWN TOWARDS ST. LOUIS. TO THE NORTH DEWPOINTS WERE ONLY IN THE 40S OVER PORTIONS OF MN EASTWARD TO MI. 3 PM TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S IN THE CWA WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...OUR FAR SOUTH WAS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A LARGER CLOUD SHIELD THAT WAS COVERING THE MID MS VALLEY. THIS WAS AHEAD OF LANDFALLING TROPICAL STORM BILL IN SE TX. MOSAIC MIDWEST RADAR LOOPS INDICATE A LINE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...FROM SE KS TO CENTRAL MO AND INTO SOUTHERN IL. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE SHORT TERM. TONIGHT...DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO OUR NORTHEAST CWA ON EAST WINDS WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 40S FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT. IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA DEWS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 60S. OPERATIONAL MODELS INCLUDING THE HI-RES MESO HRRR INDICATE WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT DEVELOPING IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AS A LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES A BIT. THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH FORCING AND INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SO I WILL HAVE HIGH END CHANCE POPS. DRIER AIR FARTHER NORTH SHOULD DISSIPATE ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY TRYING TO WORK NORTHWARD. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH AT MOST LOCATIONS IN OUR FAR SOUTH. OUR FAR SOUTH COULD GET LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. CLOUD COVER WILL PROGRESS NORTHWARD AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALSO SHIFTS A BIT NORTHWARD. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN FAR NW IL TO THE MID 60S FAR SOUTH. WEDNESDAY...WEAK LOW LEVEL JET VEERS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY WITH THE FORCING GRADUALLY PUSHING AWAY FROM THE DVN CWA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DRY DAY IN OUR NORTHERN CWA WITH CHANCE POPS IN OUR FAR SOUTH CLOSER TO THE NEARLY STALLED FRONT WELL TO OUR SOUTH. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE AREA REMAINS HIGHLY VULNERABLE TO CONTINUED RIVER FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING DUE TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST WEEK. FROM MID TO LATE WEEK...THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL MOVING INTO THE TX GULF COAST...WHICH MODEL CONSENSUS NOW HAS CURVING NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THEN TRACKING E-NE ACROSS CENTRAL MO INTO SOUTHERN IL FRI AND SAT...WHICH WOULD SPARE THE FORECAST AREA FROM HEAVY RAINFALL. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA WED NIGHT WILL WARRANT LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT QPF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS THEN LAYS OUT A BOUNDARY FROM NORTHERN IL NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND RETURNING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REQUIRE KEEPING AT LEAST LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PASSING LOW THROUGHOUT. OVER THE REST OF THE AREA...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES IS SHOWN SENDING A BACKDOOR COOL FRONT AND A SURGE OF E-NE WINDS THU NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING IN LOWER HUMIDITY AND THEN LIMIT HIGHS TO THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 FRI...AFTER ANOTHER DAY OF LOWER 80S THU. SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...ONCE THE WEAKENING REMNANTS OF BILL PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A PREFRONTAL STRONG W-SW SURGE OF VERY WARM...MOIST AIR OUT AHEAD FEEDING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING BACK HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND THETAE ADVECTION ALOFT THAT MAY FUEL AN OVERNIGHT MCS WITH THE PASSING FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT...WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST ARE PLACED. THIS WILL ALSO BE THE NEXT GREATEST THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH SHOULD FOLLOW SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY WEATHER OR LOW PRECIPITATION EVENTS THAT WILL ALLOW SURFACE CONDITIONS TO DRY SOME AND RIVERS TO BEGIN RECEDING. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL FEATURE A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH THE REGION ALONG THE EDGE OF THE STRONGER WESTERLIES WITH WARM AIR BUILDING OVER THE PLAINS AND AVAILABLE GULF MOISTURE. THIS RING OF FIRE TYPE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT PERIODIC MCS ACTIVITY OVER...OR POSSIBLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 VFR CONDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THEN MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH AND CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR...FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE TAF SITES. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING IN THE SOUTH AND SPREAD NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE AT AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HAASE SHORT TERM...HAASE LONG TERM...SHEETS AVIATION...HAASE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
611 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2015 ...AVIATION UPDATE... .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 242 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 08Z water vapor shows tropical storm Bill moving north between an upper level ridge over north FL and another upper ridge over the eastern Pacific. Meanwhile the mean westerlies remain to the north of the forecast area in almost a zonal pattern. At the surface, a weak surface ridge of high pressure continues to build south into the central Plains. The frontal boundary has moved through most if not all of the forecast area, stretching from west central MO into north central OK. For today and tonight, the surface high pressure system has shifted the deeper moisture axis to the south and east of the forecast area where models tend to keep the moisture axis through tonight. Additionally there is no real large scale forcing to speak of with any shortwave energy remaining north within the mean westerlies. Low level lift looks questionable as the surface ridge weakens through the day and the front washes out. Models still show some modest instability, but lapse rates remain relatively shallow. Overall it is just hard to see what might force precip to become more than just isolated. Nevertheless have held onto some chance POPs across east central KS during the afternoon and early evening when peak heating and localized convergence could contribute for storm formation. Storms would likely still have high rainfall rates combined with slow storm motions to pose an isolated excessive rainfall risk. Other than that, nothing else appears likely to pose a weather hazard. Temps today could be tricky depending on how the cloud cover behaves. For now models keep a low cloud deck over much of the area through the day. While I don`t expect there to be a solid stratus deck with overcast skies all day, insolation could be limited enough without any warm air advection at the surface to keep highs around 80 today. Lows tonight are expected to be in the mid and upper 60s as southerly winds return, bringing higher dewpoints north. This should also help to keep skies partly to mostly cloudy and limit any radiational cooling. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 242 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 At the start of the long term, there should be zonal flow across the northern CONUS with the remnants of "Bill" moving northeast across the southern plains. The 00Z ECMWF/GFS/NAM/GEM all lift the remnants of Bill into the Ozarks Thursday and Friday. At that point, it gets caught up in the westerlies and carried off to the east. All of the model QPF keep the rainfall associated with Bill southeast of our forecast area. The southeast counties may catch the northwest corner of the rain band or shield. Given the strength of the westerlies just to our north, keeping the remnants of Bill to our southeast seems reasonable. In the meantime, a weak cold front may push into northeast Kansas by Thursday morning and then either wash out or lift back north late in the week. Unless the remnants of Bill provide rain chances Wednesday and Thursday, the boundary seems to be the only modest support for precipitation chances. Even so, mid-level lapse rates look unsupportable for vigorous convection. Overall, lowered POPS during this time period. It will be warm and humid in general which will be the main sensible weather feature. In the extended, the upper ridge really starts to build into the central plains early next week according to the 00Z ECMWF and to some extent the GFS. Before then, a slightly stronger front is forecast to move into Kansas in association with a northern stream shortwave moving east in the zonal flow across the northern tier states. Ahead of this boundary, temperatures should reach the lower 90s on Saturday with northeast Kansas being in the low-level thermal ridge. As the boundary moves into northeast Kansas Saturday night, will forecast the highest POPS in the extended forecast. Any cooling behind the front will be short-lived as the upper ridge builds in early next week and the frontal boundary quickly retreats north. Overall, the weather pattern in the extended is starting to resemble summertime with less POPS overall and warm weather. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Wednesday Morning) Issued at 611 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 The terminals have been on the northern fringe of the low clouds. Meanwhile model guidance would have had the lower clouds further north. The 10Z RAP suggests the lower humidity may eventually mix out by the afternoon. So with the surface ridge still slowly working towards northeast KS, will go with a persistence forecast with MHK and TOP remaining on the norther fringe of the lower CIGS and keep MVFR CIGS at FOE through the morning. Confidence is low since guidance continues to over forecast the low clouds. Think precip should remain to the southeast today. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Wolters LONG TERM...Johnson AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1140 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 ...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WHILE A MID-UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTION OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH WAVE...WILL CONTINUE PUSHING INTO SOUTHEASTERN KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTHWEST TUESDAY MORNING...THEN WASHING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. ANOMALOUSLY RICH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIRMASS (~1.75 IN.) WILL PERSIST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS AND WILL HAVE RELATIVELY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES IN THOSE AREAS...WHERE WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS POSSIBLE UNDER WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT. LATEST SPC HRRR VERSION PUSHES CURRENT CONVECTION OUT OF SOUTHEAST KS BY MID EVENING...WITH A SIGNIFICANT LULL THEREAFTER. WOULD THINK EVEN IF THIS HAPPENS...THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHEAR AXIS EMANATING FROM WEST TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD...COULD IGNITE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ~4KM OR GREATER AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS FAVOR LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. IN ADDITION...SOUNDING PROFILES WOULD ALSO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED WET MICROBURST OR TWO. WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: WITH REGARD TO THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE HEADING INTO SOUTH TEXAS LATE TONIGHT...THE GFS...ECMWF...AND NAM-WRF OFFER VASTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. THIS IS NOT SURPRISING GIVEN THE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD IMPACT FAR SOUTHEAST KS SOMETIME LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IF THE GFS AND NAM ARE MORE CORRECT...ALTHOUGH THE NAM APPEARS TOO FAST WITH THE NORTH-NORTHEAST MOVEMENT. THE ECMWF INDICATES ANY IMPACTS TO SOUTHEAST KS WOULD NOT COME UNTIL FRIDAY- FRIDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...OVERALL CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/TRACK OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS LOW AT THIS JUNCTURE. NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES BUT HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST DURING THIS ENTIRE PERIOD. JMC .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 THE REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ARE PROGGED TO PUSH WELL EAST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND...WHILE A FAIRLY STRONG/AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE ECMWF WAS STRONGER WITH THE AMPLIFCATION...DRIVING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. IT HAS AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE GFS DID NOT AMPLIFY THE SHORTWAVE AS MUCH...AND AS A RESULT BRINGS THE FRONT TO CENTRAL KS NEAR I-70 BEFORE STALLING THE BOUNDARY. A COMPROMISE OF THESE SOLUTIONS WOULD BRING THE FRONT INTO THE HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES RATHER WARM...ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE IN THE FORECAST...COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED. JMC && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT FAR SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION FOR TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL VEER OUT TO THE SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. JAKUB && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 68 83 69 86 / 20 50 20 20 HUTCHINSON 66 83 67 87 / 20 20 20 20 NEWTON 66 82 68 85 / 20 40 20 20 ELDORADO 68 82 69 85 / 30 60 30 40 WINFIELD-KWLD 69 83 70 85 / 30 60 40 40 RUSSELL 63 83 66 88 / 0 10 20 10 GREAT BEND 64 83 66 88 / 10 20 20 10 SALINA 66 83 68 87 / 10 20 20 20 MCPHERSON 66 83 68 87 / 10 20 20 20 COFFEYVILLE 70 82 71 82 / 60 70 60 60 CHANUTE 69 82 70 83 / 50 60 60 60 IOLA 69 82 69 83 / 50 60 50 60 PARSONS-KPPF 70 82 71 83 / 60 70 60 60 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1029 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1029 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 FORECAST APPEARS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID AFTERNOON ON THE WAY. DID INCREASE POPS A BIT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING BASED ON LATEST HIRES MODEL DATA. STILL EXPECT BEST THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO BE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES BUT EVEN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD SEE BETTER COVERAGE THAN THEY HAVE SEEN IN RECENT DAYS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 A FEW SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO POP UP OVER OUR FAR NORTH WHILE ELSEWHERE THE FOG IS AT A MINIMUM. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THE NEAR TERM WX. ALSO TWEAKED THE T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESHENED SET OF ZONES. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STILL HOLDING OVER SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...THOUGH A COLD FRONT IS MOVING CLOSER TO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY ONGOING CONVECTION IS TRACKING WEST TO EAST FROM SOUTHERN INDIANA THROUGH OHIO. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS MAY BRUSH THE FAR NORTHERN REACHES OF OUR CWA BY DAWN. OTHERWISE...IT IS A QUIET NIGHT THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUPPORTING ANOTHER SMALL TO MODERATE RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES. SPECIFICALLY THE READINGS VARIED FROM THE MID 70S TO THE MID 60S...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS GENERALLY FROM 65 TO 70 DEGREES. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...ANY VALLEY FOG OUT THERE IS NOT SHOWING UP IN THE OBS OR SEEN ON AREA WEB CAMS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT THE PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST RIDGE WEAKENING A BIT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TOPPING IT AND RIDING EASTWARD ON ITS NORTHERN FRINGE. THIS MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL BRUSH THROUGH NORTHERN KENTUCKY TODAY...DOWNSTREAM OF LANDFALLING TROPICAL STORM BILL OVER THE WESTERN GULF. TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THIS WILL WORK INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY LATER IN THE WEEK...THOUGH THERE IS CURRENTLY HIGH PW AIR...APPROACHING TWO INCHES...JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS OF THE HRRR AND NAM12 THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...BUT WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS AND INCREASED COVERAGE THROUGH THE AREA...THOUGH STILL FAVORING THE NORTH. THE CONVECTION AND CLOUDS THAT RESULTS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS IN THE NORTH...AND PLACES THAT SEE RAIN...A BIT COOLER THAN THOSE OF YESTERDAY. THE STORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP TODAY COULD BE ORGANIZED RESULTING IN A THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN THE FORTHCOMING HWO. EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO SETTLE DOWN LATER THIS EVENING...BUT WITH THE FRONT NEARBY CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY DURING THE NIGHT. AGAIN LATE NIGHT PATCHY VALLEY FOG AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THE FRONT LOOKS TO RELOAD ON WEDNESDAY AS IT STARTS TO TAP THE MOISTURE FROM BILL WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY FOR THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THESE STORMS ON WEDNESDAY MAY BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN SLIGHTLY BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...WILL ALSO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. AGAIN THE T/TD/WINDS GRIDS WERE STARTED OFF FROM THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SUPERBLEND. DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOWS TONIGHT FOR TERRAIN DISTINCTIONS. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSEST TO THE HIGHER MET MOS NUMBERS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS KEPT THE REGION PERSISTENTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL THIS PAST WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO EXERT ITS INFLUENCE TO SOME EXTENT ON THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS THAT WILL STILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY ONCE THE SUN GOES DOWN...WITH MOST OF THE AREA BEING RAIN FREE BY 5 OR 6Z THURSDAY. RENEWED ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED TO FIRE UP DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...ONCE WE GET SOME DAY TIME HEATING GOING AND A SLUGGISH FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN PARKED WELL NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER FINALLY BEGINS TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FROM THURSDAY ONWARD WILL BE HOW WELL DEFINED THE BOUNDARY IS WHEN IT MOVES INTO OUR AREA. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE...BUT CONSISTENT FRONTAL FORCING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY COULD BE. THE MODELS DIFFER GREATLY LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE GFS BEING MUCH WETTER OVERALL THAN THE ECMWF. IT APPEARS THAT THE ECMWF HAS A DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING A CONSISTENT SURFACE TRIGGER...WHILE THE GFS PRODUCES A MORE WELL DEFINED FRONT AND ALSO HAS ITS FRONT A BIT FURTHER SOUTHWARD THAT THE ECMWF. DUE TO ALL THIS UNCERTAINTY...DECIDED NOT TO GO TO HIGH WITH PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH 30 TO 40 POPS ON AVERAGE EACH DAY...WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER POTENTIAL PLAYER IN PRECIP CHANCES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE REMNANTS OF TC BILL. THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION RECEIVED ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS WILL DEPEND ALOT ON HOW MUCH INFLUENCE BILL IS ABLE TO HAVE ON THE REGION. THIS WILL BE THE KEY TO WATCH AS WE APPROACH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH DAY TIME HIGHS GENERALLY MAXING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...WITH BALMY NIGHTLY LOW TEMPERATURES ONLY FALLING TO AROUND 70. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 735 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 WIND WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST TO GENERALLY BETWEEN NEAR 10 KTS BY MIDDAY WITH SPOTTY CONVECTION REFIRING ACROSS THE AREA BY NOON...WITH EARLIER CELLS FOUND IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. DUE TO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...INCLUDING SYM...AS WELL AS JKL AND SJS...APPEAR TO HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SEEING CONVECTION DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MVFR CIG AND VIS CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS...BUT FOR THE MOST PART VFR WILL HOLD SWAY. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF/ABE SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
735 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 A FEW SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO POP UP OVER OUR FAR NORTH WHILE ELSEWHERE THE FOG IS AT A MINIMUM. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THE NEAR TERM WX. ALSO TWEAKED THE T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESHENED SET OF ZONES. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STILL HOLDING OVER SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...THOUGH A COLD FRONT IS MOVING CLOSER TO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY ONGOING CONVECTION IS TRACKING WEST TO EAST FROM SOUTHERN INDIANA THROUGH OHIO. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS MAY BRUSH THE FAR NORTHERN REACHES OF OUR CWA BY DAWN. OTHERWISE...IT IS A QUIET NIGHT THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUPPORTING ANOTHER SMALL TO MODERATE RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES. SPECIFICALLY THE READINGS VARIED FROM THE MID 70S TO THE MID 60S...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS GENERALLY FROM 65 TO 70 DEGREES. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...ANY VALLEY FOG OUT THERE IS NOT SHOWING UP IN THE OBS OR SEEN ON AREA WEB CAMS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT THE PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST RIDGE WEAKENING A BIT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TOPPING IT AND RIDING EASTWARD ON ITS NORTHERN FRINGE. THIS MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL BRUSH THROUGH NORTHERN KENTUCKY TODAY...DOWNSTREAM OF LANDFALLING TROPICAL STORM BILL OVER THE WESTERN GULF. TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THIS WILL WORK INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY LATER IN THE WEEK...THOUGH THERE IS CURRENTLY HIGH PW AIR...APPROACHING TWO INCHES...JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS OF THE HRRR AND NAM12 THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...BUT WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS AND INCREASED COVERAGE THROUGH THE AREA...THOUGH STILL FAVORING THE NORTH. THE CONVECTION AND CLOUDS THAT RESULTS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS IN THE NORTH...AND PLACES THAT SEE RAIN...A BIT COOLER THAN THOSE OF YESTERDAY. THE STORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP TODAY COULD BE ORGANIZED RESULTING IN A THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN THE FORTHCOMING HWO. EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO SETTLE DOWN LATER THIS EVENING...BUT WITH THE FRONT NEARBY CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY DURING THE NIGHT. AGAIN LATE NIGHT PATCHY VALLEY FOG AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THE FRONT LOOKS TO RELOAD ON WEDNESDAY AS IT STARTS TO TAP THE MOISTURE FROM BILL WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY FOR THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THESE STORMS ON WEDNESDAY MAY BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN SLIGHTLY BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...WILL ALSO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. AGAIN THE T/TD/WINDS GRIDS WERE STARTED OFF FROM THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SUPERBLEND. DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOWS TONIGHT FOR TERRAIN DISTINCTIONS. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSEST TO THE HIGHER MET MOS NUMBERS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS KEPT THE REGION PERSISTENTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL THIS PAST WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO EXERT ITS INFLUENCE TO SOME EXTENT ON THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS THAT WILL STILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY ONCE THE SUN GOES DOWN...WITH MOST OF THE AREA BEING RAIN FREE BY 5 OR 6Z THURSDAY. RENEWED ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED TO FIRE UP DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...ONCE WE GET SOME DAY TIME HEATING GOING AND A SLUGGISH FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN PARKED WELL NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER FINALLY BEGINS TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FROM THURSDAY ONWARD WILL BE HOW WELL DEFINED THE BOUNDARY IS WHEN IT MOVES INTO OUR AREA. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE...BUT CONSISTENT FRONTAL FORCING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY COULD BE. THE MODELS DIFFER GREATLY LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE GFS BEING MUCH WETTER OVERALL THAN THE ECMWF. IT APPEARS THAT THE ECMWF HAS A DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING A CONSISTENT SURFACE TRIGGER...WHILE THE GFS PRODUCES A MORE WELL DEFINED FRONT AND ALSO HAS ITS FRONT A BIT FURTHER SOUTHWARD THAT THE ECMWF. DUE TO ALL THIS UNCERTAINTY...DECIDED NOT TO GO TO HIGH WITH PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH 30 TO 40 POPS ON AVERAGE EACH DAY...WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER POTENTIAL PLAYER IN PRECIP CHANCES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE REMNANTS OF TC BILL. THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION RECEIVED ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS WILL DEPEND ALOT ON HOW MUCH INFLUENCE BILL IS ABLE TO HAVE ON THE REGION. THIS WILL BE THE KEY TO WATCH AS WE APPROACH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH DAY TIME HIGHS GENERALLY MAXING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...WITH BALMY NIGHTLY LOW TEMPERATURES ONLY FALLING TO AROUND 70. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 735 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 WIND WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST TO GENERALLY BETWEEN NEAR 10 KTS BY MIDDAY WITH SPOTTY CONVECTION REFIRING ACROSS THE AREA BY NOON...WITH EARLIER CELLS FOUND IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. DUE TO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...INCLUDING SYM...AS WELL AS JKL AND SJS...APPEAR TO HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SEEING CONVECTION DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MVFR CIG AND VIS CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS...BUT FOR THE MOST PART VFR WILL HOLD SWAY. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
345 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STILL HOLDING OVER SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...THOUGH A COLD FRONT IS MOVING CLOSER TO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY ONGOING CONVECTION IS TRACKING WEST TO EAST FROM SOUTHERN INDIANA THROUGH OHIO. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS MAY BRUSH THE FAR NORTHERN REACHES OF OUR CWA BY DAWN. OTHERWISE...IT IS A QUIET NIGHT THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUPPORTING ANOTHER SMALL TO MODERATE RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES. SPECIFICALLY THE READINGS VARIED FROM THE MID 70S TO THE MID 60S...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS GENERALLY FROM 65 TO 70 DEGREES. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...ANY VALLEY FOG OUT THERE IS NOT SHOWING UP IN THE OBS OR SEEN ON AREA WEB CAMS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT THE PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST RIDGE WEAKENING A BIT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TOPPING IT AND RIDING EASTWARD ON ITS NORTHERN FRINGE. THIS MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL BRUSH THROUGH NORTHERN KENTUCKY TODAY...DOWNSTREAM OF LANDFALLING TROPICAL STORM BILL OVER THE WESTERN GULF. TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THIS WILL WORK INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY LATER IN THE WEEK...THOUGH THERE IS CURRENTLY HIGH PW AIR...APPROACHING TWO INCHES...JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS OF THE HRRR AND NAM12 THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...BUT WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS AND INCREASED COVERAGE THROUGH THE AREA...THOUGH STILL FAVORING THE NORTH. THE CONVECTION AND CLOUDS THAT RESULTS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS IN THE NORTH...AND PLACES THAT SEE RAIN...A BIT COOLER THAN THOSE OF YESTERDAY. THE STORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP TODAY COULD BE ORGANIZED RESULTING IN A THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN THE FORTHCOMING HWO. EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO SETTLE DOWN LATER THIS EVENING...BUT WITH THE FRONT NEARBY CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY DURING THE NIGHT. AGAIN LATE NIGHT PATCHY VALLEY FOG AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THE FRONT LOOKS TO RELOAD ON WEDNESDAY AS IT STARTS TO TAP THE MOISTURE FROM BILL WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY FOR THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THESE STORMS ON WEDNESDAY MAY BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN SLIGHTLY BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...WILL ALSO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. AGAIN THE T/TD/WINDS GRIDS WERE STARTED OFF FROM THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SUPERBLEND. DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOWS TONIGHT FOR TERRAIN DISTINCTIONS. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSEST TO THE HIGHER MET MOS NUMBERS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS KEPT THE REGION PERSISTENTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL THIS PAST WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO EXERT ITS INFLUENCE TO SOME EXTENT ON THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS THAT WILL STILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY ONCE THE SUN GOES DOWN...WITH MOST OF THE AREA BEING RAIN FREE BY 5 OR 6Z THURSDAY. RENEWED ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED TO FIRE UP DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...ONCE WE GET SOME DAY TIME HEATING GOING AND A SLUGGISH FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN PARKED WELL NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER FINALLY BEGINS TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FROM THURSDAY ONWARD WILL BE HOW WELL DEFINED THE BOUNDARY IS WHEN IT MOVES INTO OUR AREA. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE...BUT CONSISTENT FRONTAL FORCING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY COULD BE. THE MODELS DIFFER GREATLY LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE GFS BEING MUCH WETTER OVERALL THAN THE ECMWF. IT APPEARS THAT THE ECMWF HAS A DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING A CONSISTENT SURFACE TRIGGER...WHILE THE GFS PRODUCES A MORE WELL DEFINED FRONT AND ALSO HAS ITS FRONT A BIT FURTHER SOUTHWARD THAT THE ECMWF. DUE TO ALL THIS UNCERTAINTY...DECIDED NOT TO GO TO HIGH WITH PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH 30 TO 40 POPS ON AVERAGE EACH DAY...WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER POTENTIAL PLAYER IN PRECIP CHANCES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE REMNANTS OF TC BILL. THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION RECEIVED ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS WILL DEPEND ALOT ON HOW MUCH INFLUENCE BILL IS ABLE TO HAVE ON THE REGION. THIS WILL BE THE KEY TO WATCH AS WE APPROACH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH DAY TIME HIGHS GENERALLY MAXING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...WITH BALMY NIGHTLY LOW TEMPERATURES ONLY FALLING TO AROUND 70. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 AFTER A QUIET NIGHT WHERE ANY PATCHY FOG STAYS IN THE VALLEYS AND AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES...WIND SHOULD INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST TO GENERALLY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS BY MIDDAY WITH SPOTTY CONVECTION REFIRING AROUND NOON TUESDAY. DUE TO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...INCLUDING SYM...AS WELL AS JKL AND SJS...APPEAR TO HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SEEING CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS OF TUESDAY. MVFR CIG AND VIS CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS...BUT FOR THE MOST PART VFR WILL HOLD SWAY. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
208 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 PER THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR/NAM12 HAVE DROPPED POPS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE AREA. DID ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM IN THE FAR NORTH TOWARD DAWN. OTHERWISE...JUST TOUCHED UP THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS BASED ON THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS AS WELL AS INFLUENCE FROM THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1058 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 THE 0Z NAM AND MOST RECENT HRRR RUN FROM 01Z SUGGEST THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT COULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO REMOVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH LATE. OTHERWISE...HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATION. UPDATE ISSUED AT 830 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 CONVECTION HAS WANED OVER THE PAST HOUR AS WE APPROACH SUNSET. A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE REGION STILL IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF A QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE NORTH OF THE REGION. NEAR TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM12 AS WELL AS RECENT HRRR RUNS DEVELOP SOME CONVECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN KY. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ALREADY HAD SOME POPS LATE IN THE NORTH AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FIRING WITH DAYTIME HEATING IN AN ARC ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. DESPITE THE STAGNANT LOOK IN THE MID LEVELS...A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING BY WELL TO OUR NORTH WILL FORCE A SUBTLE SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH THE 850 MB JET AXIS INTO OUR AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS BEEN A GOOD INDICATOR OF WHERE THE BETTER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE HAS BEEN IN RECENT DAYS AND ITS SOUTHWARD SHIFT WILL HELP INCREASE OUR ALREADY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT UP TOWARDS 2 INCHES. THIS SHOULD SPELL BETTER COVERAGE FOR THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY COMPARED TO WHAT WE ARE SEEING TODAY. IT WILL ALSO RESULT IN A SMALL THREAT FOR A SHOWER OR STORM GOING THROUGH TONIGHT IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND FOR ALL AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. LAPSE RATES REMAIN MEAGER SO LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 433 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AS THE PERIOD STARTS. THE CONVECTIVE RING OF FIRE ON ITS PERIMETER IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST TO OUR NORTH...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE A LITTLE BIT BETTER SHOT AT PRECIP IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS DEPICT THE CONVECTIVE BELT SHIFTING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD OVER OUR AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT ALSO BEING A LITTLE LESS ACTIVE. A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERLIES OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS SHOULD SEND A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FALLS BOTH FAVOR A DECENT SHOT AT SOME THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING IS UNCERTAIN THOUGH...AND ONLY CHANCE POPS ARE BEING USED AT THIS POINT. THE PUSH OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE LOOSING ITS MOMENTUM BY THE TIME THE FRONT REACHES US...SO NO SIGNIFICANT RELIEF FROM HUMIDITY IS SEEN. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 AFTER A QUIET NIGHT WHERE ANY PATCHY FOG STAYS IN THE VALLEYS AND AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES...WIND SHOULD INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST TO GENERALLY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS BY MIDDAY WITH SPOTTY CONVECTION REFIRING AROUND NOON TUESDAY. DUE TO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...INCLUDING SYM...AS WELL AS JKL AND SJS...APPEAR TO HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SEEING CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS OF TUESDAY. MVFR CIG AND VIS CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS...BUT FOR THE MOST PART VFR WILL HOLD SWAY. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...ABE LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1202 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 433 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN CONUS/SRN CANADA. UPSTREAM...ONE SHORTWAVE IS EVIDENT OVER NRN MN WHILE A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROF IS SWINGING SE THRU SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. WAVE OVER NRN MN HAS BEEN AIDING A PERSISTENT AREA OF SHRA THAT HAS MOVED FROM NW WI EARLY THIS MORNING INTO WRN UPPER MI THIS AFTN. THE CLOUD COVER OVER WRN UPPER MI HAS KEPT INSTABILITY FROM DEVELOPING...SO THERE HAS BEEN NO THUNDER YET. VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER TO THE S AND SW... AND LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES MLCAPES HAVE INCREASED TO A FEW HUNDRED J/KG INTO WCNTRL WI WITH THE 100J/KG ISOPLETH NOW NEAR THE WI/MI BORDER. THAT INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH A WEAK SFC LOW PRES OVER SRN MN AND TROF EXTENDING NE TOWARD KIWD HAS BECOME THE FOCUS FOR DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HRS. WELL OFF TO THE NW...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN SHORTWAVE TROF EXTENDS FROM HUDSON BAY TO SE SASKATCHEWAN. SFC OBS/CANADIAN RADARS SHOW SOME -SHRA/SPRINKLES WITHIN THE BAND OF CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING FRONT. MORE RECENTLY...CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO FIRE ALONG THE FRONT. FIRST WAVE OVER NRN MN WILL SHIFT E ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES THIS EVENING. MODELS HINT THAT ANOTHER SUBTLE WAVE WILL FOLLOW LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE SWINGING SE THRU NRN ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT THRU EARLY THU AFTN. HAVE LARGELY UTILIZED RADAR TRENDS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HRS TO PUSH ONGOING SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH FIRST SHORTWAVE ENE INTO NCNTRL UPPER MI BEFORE DIMINISHING. NAM AND THE HIGH RES NAM WINDOW HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS PCPN...SO NAM OUTPUT WAS INCORPORATED AS WELL. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE CONVECTION DEVELOPING TO THE SW NEAR SRN MN WEAK SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROF THAT EXTENDS TOWARD KIWD. SINCE THIS CONVECTION IS LARGELY DRIVEN BY DAYTIME INSTABILITY...THIS PCPN SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH AS IT LIFTS TOWARD THE FCST AREA TONIGHT. PROBABLY WON`T COMPLETELY DISSIPATE GIVEN SOME CONTINUED FORCING THRU THE NIGHT. SO...FCST WILL SHOW SCT/NMRS SHRA INTO WRN UPPER MI DIMINISHING TO SCT WITH TIME EASTWARD. SINCE CLOUD COVER WILL DOMINATE HEADING TO SUNSET...INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED HERE...BUT IT STILL WARRANTS A MENTION OF THUNDER WITH BEST CHC FROM KIWD TOWARD KIMT. POTENTIAL FOR SCT SHOWERS/PERHAPS A TSTM WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ERN FCST AREA THU MORNING ALONG JUST AHEAD OF THE FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING THRU THE AREA. AS IS THE CASE TODAY IN CANADA...THERE MAY ALSO BE ISOLD -SHRA FOR A SHORT TIME FOLLOWING FROPA AS WELL. OTHERWISE...SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THU AFTN WILL BRING DRIER AIR/CLEARING SKIES. IT WILL BE CHILLY ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR THU AFTN WITH GRADIENT WIND OFF THE LAKE. LAKESIDE LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF LONG FETCHES ACROSS THE LAKE WILL LIKELY SEE AFTN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S/LWR 50S. AT THE HIGH END...MAX TEMPS OVER FAR SCNTRL UPPER MI SHOULD REACH THE MID 70S. IT WILL ALSO BE A BREEZY DAY BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E...DUE TO DECENT PRES RISES/CAA AND 20-30KT WINDS AT 925MB. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WEAK SYSTEMS TO PASS ACROSS THE AREA EVERY FEW DAYS. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM WILL GENERALLY HAVE AT LEAST SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY...NONE OF THE DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY SO MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. AFTER THE WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES BY ON THURSDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA...ACCOMPAINED BY VERY DRY AIR WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AT 0.25 INCH THU NIGHT. THIS DRY AIR COMBINED WITH DECOUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO DROP WELL INTO THE 30S ACROSS MANY INTERIOR LOCATIONS WITH SOME PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT FROST ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED THU NIGHT BUT WILL LEAVE THIS DECISION TO FUTURE FORECASTS. HOWEVER...PEOPLE IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR MAY NEED TO PREPARE TO COVER PLANTS WHICH ARE SUCCEPTIABLE TO THE COLD THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT DAY ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. SOME WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY WHICH COMBINED WITH THE SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH LOCATIONS CLOSE TO THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE COOLER. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LATEST NWP SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE SLIGHTLY SLOWER...WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...WILL ELIMINATE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR THE FAR WEST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THE BEST UPPER FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL GENERALY REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. AS SUCH...ANY PRECIPITAITON WILL LIKELY BE TIED TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THERE SEEMS LIKE AT LEAST THE POSSIBLITY FOR SOME SUNSHINE ALLOWING FOR SOME POCKETS OF INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. IN FACT...THE NAM IS QUITE AGRESSIVE IN SHOWING 1000+ J/KG MLCAPE VALUES SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF THE UPPER PENINSULA. IN FACT...EVEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST SOME MODEST INSTABILITY OF 500-1000 J/KG. WITH 50 KT MID- LEVEL FLOW AND SOME DRYING ALOFT...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STRONGER STORMS IF/WHERE POCKETS OF INSTABILITY DEVELOP. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ONLY AROUND 6.1 C/KM. BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON SATURDAY...WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE WEATHER TO BECOME QUIET AGAIN FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...WITH THE UPPER JET OVERHEAD AND ANOTHER SUBTLE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE W-NW FLOW...CANNOT RULE OUT A PASSING SHOWER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE ZONAL W-NW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT A BAROCLINC ZONE WILL DEVELOP JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTN INTO MONDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES ESPECAILLY CLOSER TO THE WI/MI BORDER AS IT CREEPS NORTHWARD. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THIS BOUNDARY WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THOSE DAYS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1201 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU MORNING AT KIWD. KCMX WILL HAVE AN UPSLOPE WIND DIRECTION OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHICH WILL CAUSE LIFR CONDITIONS TO FORM LATE TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING. AT KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THRU THE AREA THU MORNING...BRINGING A SHIFT TO NW TO N WINDS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT KCMX AND ESPECIALLY AT KSAW. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO IWD AND CMX LATE THU MORNING. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 433 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EACH ONE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS. AFTER LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT/THU MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY GUST TO 20-25KT FOR A TIME OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR THU...ESPECIALLY AT HIGH OBS PLATFORMS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING AS HIGH PRES PASSES OVER THE AREA. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES...SE TO S WINDS WILL RAMP UP FRI AFTN THRU SAT MORNING. WINDS MAY GUST TO 15-25KT FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING OVER CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS WILL PROBABLY SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SAT AFTN. SINCE THE HIGH PRES FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL BE WEAK...WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...UNDER 20KT FOR LATE SAT THRU SUN. THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL LINGER INTO MON UNDER A WEAK PRES GRADIENT. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ROLFSON LONG TERM...MRD AVIATION...07 MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
711 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 433 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN CONUS/SRN CANADA. UPSTREAM...ONE SHORTWAVE IS EVIDENT OVER NRN MN WHILE A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROF IS SWINGING SE THRU SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. WAVE OVER NRN MN HAS BEEN AIDING A PERSISTENT AREA OF SHRA THAT HAS MOVED FROM NW WI EARLY THIS MORNING INTO WRN UPPER MI THIS AFTN. THE CLOUD COVER OVER WRN UPPER MI HAS KEPT INSTABILITY FROM DEVELOPING...SO THERE HAS BEEN NO THUNDER YET. VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER TO THE S AND SW... AND LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES MLCAPES HAVE INCREASED TO A FEW HUNDRED J/KG INTO WCNTRL WI WITH THE 100J/KG ISOPLETH NOW NEAR THE WI/MI BORDER. THAT INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH A WEAK SFC LOW PRES OVER SRN MN AND TROF EXTENDING NE TOWARD KIWD HAS BECOME THE FOCUS FOR DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HRS. WELL OFF TO THE NW...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN SHORTWAVE TROF EXTENDS FROM HUDSON BAY TO SE SASKATCHEWAN. SFC OBS/CANADIAN RADARS SHOW SOME -SHRA/SPRINKLES WITHIN THE BAND OF CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING FRONT. MORE RECENTLY...CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO FIRE ALONG THE FRONT. FIRST WAVE OVER NRN MN WILL SHIFT E ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES THIS EVENING. MODELS HINT THAT ANOTHER SUBTLE WAVE WILL FOLLOW LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE SWINGING SE THRU NRN ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT THRU EARLY THU AFTN. HAVE LARGELY UTILIZED RADAR TRENDS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HRS TO PUSH ONGOING SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH FIRST SHORTWAVE ENE INTO NCNTRL UPPER MI BEFORE DIMINISHING. NAM AND THE HIGH RES NAM WINDOW HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS PCPN...SO NAM OUTPUT WAS INCORPORATED AS WELL. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE CONVECTION DEVELOPING TO THE SW NEAR SRN MN WEAK SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROF THAT EXTENDS TOWARD KIWD. SINCE THIS CONVECTION IS LARGELY DRIVEN BY DAYTIME INSTABILITY...THIS PCPN SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH AS IT LIFTS TOWARD THE FCST AREA TONIGHT. PROBABLY WON`T COMPLETELY DISSIPATE GIVEN SOME CONTINUED FORCING THRU THE NIGHT. SO...FCST WILL SHOW SCT/NMRS SHRA INTO WRN UPPER MI DIMINISHING TO SCT WITH TIME EASTWARD. SINCE CLOUD COVER WILL DOMINATE HEADING TO SUNSET...INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED HERE...BUT IT STILL WARRANTS A MENTION OF THUNDER WITH BEST CHC FROM KIWD TOWARD KIMT. POTENTIAL FOR SCT SHOWERS/PERHAPS A TSTM WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ERN FCST AREA THU MORNING ALONG JUST AHEAD OF THE FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING THRU THE AREA. AS IS THE CASE TODAY IN CANADA...THERE MAY ALSO BE ISOLD -SHRA FOR A SHORT TIME FOLLOWING FROPA AS WELL. OTHERWISE...SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THU AFTN WILL BRING DRIER AIR/CLEARING SKIES. IT WILL BE CHILLY ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR THU AFTN WITH GRADIENT WIND OFF THE LAKE. LAKESIDE LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF LONG FETCHES ACROSS THE LAKE WILL LIKELY SEE AFTN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S/LWR 50S. AT THE HIGH END...MAX TEMPS OVER FAR SCNTRL UPPER MI SHOULD REACH THE MID 70S. IT WILL ALSO BE A BREEZY DAY BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E...DUE TO DECENT PRES RISES/CAA AND 20-30KT WINDS AT 925MB. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WEAK SYSTEMS TO PASS ACROSS THE AREA EVERY FEW DAYS. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM WILL GENERALLY HAVE AT LEAST SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY...NONE OF THE DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY SO MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. AFTER THE WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES BY ON THURSDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA...ACCOMPAINED BY VERY DRY AIR WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AT 0.25 INCH THU NIGHT. THIS DRY AIR COMBINED WITH DECOUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO DROP WELL INTO THE 30S ACROSS MANY INTERIOR LOCATIONS WITH SOME PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT FROST ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED THU NIGHT BUT WILL LEAVE THIS DECISION TO FUTURE FORECASTS. HOWEVER...PEOPLE IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR MAY NEED TO PREPARE TO COVER PLANTS WHICH ARE SUCCEPTIABLE TO THE COLD THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT DAY ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. SOME WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY WHICH COMBINED WITH THE SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH LOCATIONS CLOSE TO THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE COOLER. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LATEST NWP SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE SLIGHTLY SLOWER...WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...WILL ELIMINATE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR THE FAR WEST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THE BEST UPPER FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL GENERALY REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. AS SUCH...ANY PRECIPITAITON WILL LIKELY BE TIED TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THERE SEEMS LIKE AT LEAST THE POSSIBLITY FOR SOME SUNSHINE ALLOWING FOR SOME POCKETS OF INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. IN FACT...THE NAM IS QUITE AGRESSIVE IN SHOWING 1000+ J/KG MLCAPE VALUES SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF THE UPPER PENINSULA. IN FACT...EVEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST SOME MODEST INSTABILITY OF 500-1000 J/KG. WITH 50 KT MID- LEVEL FLOW AND SOME DRYING ALOFT...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STRONGER STORMS IF/WHERE POCKETS OF INSTABILITY DEVELOP. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ONLY AROUND 6.1 C/KM. BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON SATURDAY...WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE WEATHER TO BECOME QUIET AGAIN FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...WITH THE UPPER JET OVERHEAD AND ANOTHER SUBTLE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE W-NW FLOW...CANNOT RULE OUT A PASSING SHOWER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE ZONAL W-NW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT A BAROCLINC ZONE WILL DEVELOP JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTN INTO MONDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES ESPECAILLY CLOSER TO THE WI/MI BORDER AS IT CREEPS NORTHWARD. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THIS BOUNDARY WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THOSE DAYS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 710 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU MORNING AT KIWD. KCMX WILL KEEP UPSLOPE WIND DIRECTION OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHICH WILL CAUSE LIFR CONDITIONS THERE INTO THU MORNING. AT KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THU MORNING. COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THRU THE AREA THU MORNING...BRINGING A SHIFT TO NW TO N WINDS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT KCMX AND ESPECIALLY AT KSAW. MAY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS PERHAPS IFR AROUND/JUST AFTER FROPA AT KSAW. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 433 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EACH ONE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS. AFTER LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT/THU MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY GUST TO 20-25KT FOR A TIME OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR THU...ESPECIALLY AT HIGH OBS PLATFORMS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING AS HIGH PRES PASSES OVER THE AREA. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES...SE TO S WINDS WILL RAMP UP FRI AFTN THRU SAT MORNING. WINDS MAY GUST TO 15-25KT FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING OVER CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS WILL PROBABLY SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SAT AFTN. SINCE THE HIGH PRES FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL BE WEAK...WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...UNDER 20KT FOR LATE SAT THRU SUN. THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL LINGER INTO MON UNDER A WEAK PRES GRADIENT. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ROLFSON LONG TERM...MRD AVIATION...07 MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
135 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A WNW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE UPR GRT LKS TO THE S OF UPR TROF CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY. A DRY...STABLE AIRMASS PER THE 00Z INL ROAB...WHICH SHOWED PWAT NEAR 0.50 INCH /70 PERCENT OF NORMAL/ AND SHARP SUBSIDENCE INVRN NEAR H775-8...IS MOVING INTO THE UPR LKS. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME SCT-BKN SC/AC OVER UPR MI EARLY THIS MRNG ASSOCIATED WITH SOME HIER RH JUST BLO THE INVRN BASE AND THE PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD FNT...BUT THESE CLDS ARE TENDING TO SLOWLY DISSOLVE UNDER LARGE SCALE DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG SHRTWV RDG AXIS. LOOKING UPSTREAM...SFC HI PRES IS CENTERED ALONG THE NDAKOTA/CNDN BORDER. BUT MORE CLDS IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SHRTWV OVER THE NRN ROCKIES THAT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ZONAL FLOW ARE SPREADING EWD THRU THE NRN PLAINS UP TO NEAR THE SFC HI PRES CENTER. MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON TEMPS TODAY AND ON CLD TRENDS/NEED FOR POPS TNGT. TODAY...DNVA/LARGE SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE AND TREND FOR INCRSG ACYC LLVL FLOW WL RESULT IN A CONTINUED DIMINISHING OF LINGERING SC/AC OVER UPR MI EARLY THIS MRNG. AS SFC HI PRES BLDS OVER LK SUP TODAY...EXPECT MOSUNNY SKIES WITH ONLY SOME SCT DIURNAL CU DVLPG UNDER LINGERING H85 THERMAL TROF/H85 TEMPS 3-4C. SOME HI CLDS WELL IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS WL ALSO ARRIVE OVER THE W LATER IN THE DAY. MIXING TO SUBSIDENCE INVRN BASE NEAR H8 WL RESULT IN HI TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 60S. BUT LLVL NNW FLOW OFF THE CHILLY WATERS OF LK SUP IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG SFC HI PRES CENTER MAY HOLD DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE 50S NEAR THE LK...ESPECIALLY E OF MARQUETTE. TNGT...MODELS SHOW INCRSG H85-5 RH W-E TNGT IN ADVANCE OF UPSTREAM SHRTWV MOVING INTO MN BY 12Z WED. BUT SINCE THE SHARPER DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/MOST IMPRESSIVE H85 THETA E ADVCTN ARE FCST TO REMAIN TO THE W OF THE CWA WITH LINGERING VERY DRY NEAR SFC AIR ASSOCIATED WITH SLOWLY EXITING SFC HI PRES CENTER...MANY OF THE MODELS BRING ACCOMPANYING PCPN NO FARTHER E THAN WRN LK SUP THRU 12Z WED. WL RETAIN SCHC POPS OVER THE FAR W LATE TNGT TO ACCOUNT FOR THOSE MODELS THAT CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOME PCPN INTO THAT AREA. THICKENING CLDS WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL...BUT MINS WL STILL FALL WELL INTO THE 40S OVER THE E WITHIN LINGERING DRY AIR AND WHERE THE THICKER CLDS WL ARRIVE LATEST. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 456 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL KEEP THE OFF AND ON SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SHOWERS WILL SLIDE INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY...AND SLOWLY SHIFT INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT POPS MAINLY IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE FOR ALL BUT FAR W ZONES. NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT GETTING ANYTHING OVER A FEW HUNDREDTHS WITH THIS ONE. DRIER AIR WILL AGAIN BUILD IN THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA IN THE FORM OF HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE THE GFS IS EXTREMELY DRY...THE MAJORITY OF THE SOLUTIONS DO SHOW AT LEAST SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY. THE MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN THE CLOUDY NAM AND CLEAR GFS LOOKS TO BE THE ECMWF...AND OUR ONGOING FCST. TANKED LOWS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING BY 5F OR SO...WITH FEW IF ANY CLOUDS...PW VALUES RANGING FROM 0.25 OVER FAR N WI /NAM SOLUTION/ TO AROUND 0.6IN /HIGH END OF GFS/...AND NEARLY CALM WINDS UNDER THE SFC HIGH. KEPT IWD A BIT WARMER THAN MOST OF THE COOL GUIDANCE THROUGH...GIVEN THE RETURN FLOW AS THE HIGH SLOWLY EXITS E FRIDAY. EXPECT A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS...TO RETURN LATER FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE NOW COME IN DRY FOR SUNDAY. THIS GOES AGAINST THE 30 PERCENT POPS THAT WE WOULD HAVE BLENDED TO...SO HAVE DONE SOME EDITING TO GO A LITTLE DRIER. MAY NEED TO TAKE POPS OUT COMPLETELY DEPENDING ON THE NEXT SET OF MODEL RUNS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 A SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW ON WED...POSSIBLY BRINGING SHOWERS TO KIWD THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS MAY ALSO MOVE INTO KCMX NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 ALTHOUGH A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THRU THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND CAUSE VARYING WINDS...A RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND HI STABILITY OVER THE CHILLY LAKE WATERS WILL HOLD WINDS UNDER 20KTS THRU THE WEEK. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...TITUS MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
730 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A WNW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE UPR GRT LKS TO THE S OF UPR TROF CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY. A DRY...STABLE AIRMASS PER THE 00Z INL ROAB...WHICH SHOWED PWAT NEAR 0.50 INCH /70 PERCENT OF NORMAL/ AND SHARP SUBSIDENCE INVRN NEAR H775-8...IS MOVING INTO THE UPR LKS. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME SCT-BKN SC/AC OVER UPR MI EARLY THIS MRNG ASSOCIATED WITH SOME HIER RH JUST BLO THE INVRN BASE AND THE PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD FNT...BUT THESE CLDS ARE TENDING TO SLOWLY DISSOLVE UNDER LARGE SCALE DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG SHRTWV RDG AXIS. LOOKING UPSTREAM...SFC HI PRES IS CENTERED ALONG THE NDAKOTA/CNDN BORDER. BUT MORE CLDS IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SHRTWV OVER THE NRN ROCKIES THAT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ZONAL FLOW ARE SPREADING EWD THRU THE NRN PLAINS UP TO NEAR THE SFC HI PRES CENTER. MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON TEMPS TODAY AND ON CLD TRENDS/NEED FOR POPS TNGT. TODAY...DNVA/LARGE SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE AND TREND FOR INCRSG ACYC LLVL FLOW WL RESULT IN A CONTINUED DIMINISHING OF LINGERING SC/AC OVER UPR MI EARLY THIS MRNG. AS SFC HI PRES BLDS OVER LK SUP TODAY...EXPECT MOSUNNY SKIES WITH ONLY SOME SCT DIURNAL CU DVLPG UNDER LINGERING H85 THERMAL TROF/H85 TEMPS 3-4C. SOME HI CLDS WELL IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS WL ALSO ARRIVE OVER THE W LATER IN THE DAY. MIXING TO SUBSIDENCE INVRN BASE NEAR H8 WL RESULT IN HI TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 60S. BUT LLVL NNW FLOW OFF THE CHILLY WATERS OF LK SUP IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG SFC HI PRES CENTER MAY HOLD DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE 50S NEAR THE LK...ESPECIALLY E OF MARQUETTE. TNGT...MODELS SHOW INCRSG H85-5 RH W-E TNGT IN ADVANCE OF UPSTREAM SHRTWV MOVING INTO MN BY 12Z WED. BUT SINCE THE SHARPER DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/MOST IMPRESSIVE H85 THETA E ADVCTN ARE FCST TO REMAIN TO THE W OF THE CWA WITH LINGERING VERY DRY NEAR SFC AIR ASSOCIATED WITH SLOWLY EXITING SFC HI PRES CENTER...MANY OF THE MODELS BRING ACCOMPANYING PCPN NO FARTHER E THAN WRN LK SUP THRU 12Z WED. WL RETAIN SCHC POPS OVER THE FAR W LATE TNGT TO ACCOUNT FOR THOSE MODELS THAT CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOME PCPN INTO THAT AREA. THICKENING CLDS WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL...BUT MINS WL STILL FALL WELL INTO THE 40S OVER THE E WITHIN LINGERING DRY AIR AND WHERE THE THICKER CLDS WL ARRIVE LATEST. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 456 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL KEEP THE OFF AND ON SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SHOWERS WILL SLIDE INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY...AND SLOWLY SHIFT INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT POPS MAINLY IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE FOR ALL BUT FAR W ZONES. NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT GETTING ANYTHING OVER A FEW HUNDREDTHS WITH THIS ONE. DRIER AIR WILL AGAIN BUILD IN THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA IN THE FORM OF HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE THE GFS IS EXTREMELY DRY...THE MAJORITY OF THE SOLUTIONS DO SHOW AT LEAST SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY. THE MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN THE CLOUDY NAM AND CLEAR GFS LOOKS TO BE THE ECMWF...AND OUR ONGOING FCST. TANKED LOWS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING BY 5F OR SO...WITH FEW IF ANY CLOUDS...PW VALUES RANGING FROM 0.25 OVER FAR N WI /NAM SOLUTION/ TO AROUND 0.6IN /HIGH END OF GFS/...AND NEARLY CALM WINDS UNDER THE SFC HIGH. KEPT IWD A BIT WARMER THAN MOST OF THE COOL GUIDANCE THROUGH...GIVEN THE RETURN FLOW AS THE HIGH SLOWLY EXITS E FRIDAY. EXPECT A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS...TO RETURN LATER FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE NOW COME IN DRY FOR SUNDAY. THIS GOES AGAINST THE 30 PERCENT POPS THAT WE WOULD HAVE BLENDED TO...SO HAVE DONE SOME EDITING TO GO A LITTLE DRIER. MAY NEED TO TAKE POPS OUT COMPLETELY DEPENDING ON THE NEXT SET OF MODEL RUNS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 729 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 HI PRES BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY WL BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO ALL 3 TAF SITES. SOME HI/MID CLDS WL ARRIVE TNGT... BUT LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR WL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS EVEN IF A -SHRA DEVELOPS AT IWD LATE. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 ALTHOUGH A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THRU THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND CAUSE VARYING WINDS...A RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND HI STABILITY OVER THE CHILLY LAKE WATERS WILL HOLD WINDS UNDER 20KTS THRU THE WEEK. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...KC MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
456 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A WNW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE UPR GRT LKS TO THE S OF UPR TROF CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY. A DRY...STABLE AIRMASS PER THE 00Z INL ROAB...WHICH SHOWED PWAT NEAR 0.50 INCH /70 PERCENT OF NORMAL/ AND SHARP SUBSIDENCE INVRN NEAR H775-8...IS MOVING INTO THE UPR LKS. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME SCT-BKN SC/AC OVER UPR MI EARLY THIS MRNG ASSOCIATED WITH SOME HIER RH JUST BLO THE INVRN BASE AND THE PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD FNT...BUT THESE CLDS ARE TENDING TO SLOWLY DISSOLVE UNDER LARGE SCALE DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG SHRTWV RDG AXIS. LOOKING UPSTREAM...SFC HI PRES IS CENTERED ALONG THE NDAKOTA/CNDN BORDER. BUT MORE CLDS IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SHRTWV OVER THE NRN ROCKIES THAT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ZONAL FLOW ARE SPREADING EWD THRU THE NRN PLAINS UP TO NEAR THE SFC HI PRES CENTER. MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON TEMPS TODAY AND ON CLD TRENDS/NEED FOR POPS TNGT. TODAY...DNVA/LARGE SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE AND TREND FOR INCRSG ACYC LLVL FLOW WL RESULT IN A CONTINUED DIMINISHING OF LINGERING SC/AC OVER UPR MI EARLY THIS MRNG. AS SFC HI PRES BLDS OVER LK SUP TODAY...EXPECT MOSUNNY SKIES WITH ONLY SOME SCT DIURNAL CU DVLPG UNDER LINGERING H85 THERMAL TROF/H85 TEMPS 3-4C. SOME HI CLDS WELL IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS WL ALSO ARRIVE OVER THE W LATER IN THE DAY. MIXING TO SUBSIDENCE INVRN BASE NEAR H8 WL RESULT IN HI TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 60S. BUT LLVL NNW FLOW OFF THE CHILLY WATERS OF LK SUP IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG SFC HI PRES CENTER MAY HOLD DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE 50S NEAR THE LK...ESPECIALLY E OF MARQUETTE. TNGT...MODELS SHOW INCRSG H85-5 RH W-E TNGT IN ADVANCE OF UPSTREAM SHRTWV MOVING INTO MN BY 12Z WED. BUT SINCE THE SHARPER DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/MOST IMPRESSIVE H85 THETA E ADVCTN ARE FCST TO REMAIN TO THE W OF THE CWA WITH LINGERING VERY DRY NEAR SFC AIR ASSOCIATED WITH SLOWLY EXITING SFC HI PRES CENTER...MANY OF THE MODELS BRING ACCOMPANYING PCPN NO FARTHER E THAN WRN LK SUP THRU 12Z WED. WL RETAIN SCHC POPS OVER THE FAR W LATE TNGT TO ACCOUNT FOR THOSE MODELS THAT CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOME PCPN INTO THAT AREA. THICKENING CLDS WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL...BUT MINS WL STILL FALL WELL INTO THE 40S OVER THE E WITHIN LINGERING DRY AIR AND WHERE THE THICKER CLDS WL ARRIVE LATEST. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 456 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL KEEP THE OFF AND ON SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SHOWERS WILL SLIDE INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY...AND SLOWLY SHIFT INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT POPS MAINLY IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE FOR ALL BUT FAR W ZONES. NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT GETTING ANYTHING OVER A FEW HUNDREDTHS WITH THIS ONE. DRIER AIR WILL AGAIN BUILD IN THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA IN THE FORM OF HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE THE GFS IS EXTREMELY DRY...THE MAJORITY OF THE SOLUTIONS DO SHOW AT LEAST SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY. THE MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN THE CLOUDY NAM AND CLEAR GFS LOOKS TO BE THE ECMWF...AND OUR ONGOING FCST. TANKED LOWS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING BY 5F OR SO...WITH FEW IF ANY CLOUDS...PW VALUES RANGING FROM 0.25 OVER FAR N WI /NAM SOLUTION/ TO AROUND 0.6IN /HIGH END OF GFS/...AND NEARLY CALM WINDS UNDER THE SFC HIGH. KEPT IWD A BIT WARMER THAN MOST OF THE COOL GUIDANCE THROUGH...GIVEN THE RETURN FLOW AS THE HIGH SLOWLY EXITS E FRIDAY. EXPECT A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS...TO RETURN LATER FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE NOW COME IN DRY FOR SUNDAY. THIS GOES AGAINST THE 30 PERCENT POPS THAT WE WOULD HAVE BLENDED TO...SO HAVE DONE SOME EDITING TO GO A LITTLE DRIER. MAY NEED TO TAKE POPS OUT COMPLETELY DEPENDING ON THE NEXT SET OF MODEL RUNS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 ALTHOUGH A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THRU THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND CAUSE VARYING WINDS...A RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND HI STABILITY OVER THE CHILLY LAKE WATERS WILL HOLD WINDS UNDER 20KTS THRU THE WEEK. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...ROLFSON MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
346 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A WNW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE UPR GRT LKS TO THE S OF UPR TROF CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY. A DRY...STABLE AIRMASS PER THE 00Z INL ROAB...WHICH SHOWED PWAT NEAR 0.50 INCH /70 PERCENT OF NORMAL/ AND SHARP SUBSIDENCE INVRN NEAR H775-8...IS MOVING INTO THE UPR LKS. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME SCT-BKN SC/AC OVER UPR MI EARLY THIS MRNG ASSOCIATED WITH SOME HIER RH JUST BLO THE INVRN BASE AND THE PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD FNT...BUT THESE CLDS ARE TENDING TO SLOWLY DISSOLVE UNDER LARGE SCALE DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG SHRTWV RDG AXIS. LOOKING UPSTREAM...SFC HI PRES IS CENTERED ALONG THE NDAKOTA/CNDN BORDER. BUT MORE CLDS IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SHRTWV OVER THE NRN ROCKIES THAT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ZONAL FLOW ARE SPREADING EWD THRU THE NRN PLAINS UP TO NEAR THE SFC HI PRES CENTER. MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON TEMPS TODAY AND ON CLD TRENDS/NEED FOR POPS TNGT. TODAY...DNVA/LARGE SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE AND TREND FOR INCRSG ACYC LLVL FLOW WL RESULT IN A CONTINUED DIMINISHING OF LINGERING SC/AC OVER UPR MI EARLY THIS MRNG. AS SFC HI PRES BLDS OVER LK SUP TODAY...EXPECT MOSUNNY SKIES WITH ONLY SOME SCT DIURNAL CU DVLPG UNDER LINGERING H85 THERMAL TROF/H85 TEMPS 3-4C. SOME HI CLDS WELL IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS WL ALSO ARRIVE OVER THE W LATER IN THE DAY. MIXING TO SUBSIDENCE INVRN BASE NEAR H8 WL RESULT IN HI TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 60S. BUT LLVL NNW FLOW OFF THE CHILLY WATERS OF LK SUP IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG SFC HI PRES CENTER MAY HOLD DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE 50S NEAR THE LK...ESPECIALLY E OF MARQUETTE. TNGT...MODELS SHOW INCRSG H85-5 RH W-E TNGT IN ADVANCE OF UPSTREAM SHRTWV MOVING INTO MN BY 12Z WED. BUT SINCE THE SHARPER DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/MOST IMPRESSIVE H85 THETA E ADVCTN ARE FCST TO REMAIN TO THE W OF THE CWA WITH LINGERING VERY DRY NEAR SFC AIR ASSOCIATED WITH SLOWLY EXITING SFC HI PRES CENTER...MANY OF THE MODELS BRING ACCOMPANYING PCPN NO FARTHER E THAN WRN LK SUP THRU 12Z WED. WL RETAIN SCHC POPS OVER THE FAR W LATE TNGT TO ACCOUNT FOR THOSE MODELS THAT CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOME PCPN INTO THAT AREA. THICKENING CLDS WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL...BUT MINS WL STILL FALL WELL INTO THE 40S OVER THE E WITHIN LINGERING DRY AIR AND WHERE THE THICKER CLDS WL ARRIVE LATEST. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...LEADING TO SEVERAL SHORTWAVES PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON GENERAL IDEA ON THE TIMING/LOCATION OF THE SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...CONFIDENCE ISN/T HIGH ENOUGH TO REALLY PIN DOWN THE FINER DETAILS AS SUBTLE VARIATIONS CAN GREATLY AFFECT THE OVERALL FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DEPARTING THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A THE FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES APPROACH THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING OVER THE U.P. THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. AS THAT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA...SHOULD SEE SOME RAIN SHOWERS PUSHING EAST IN THE WESTERN U.P. TIED TO THE 850-700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF THE WAVE. WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SPREAD CHANCE POPS EAST INTO THE WESTERN CWA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODEL MUCAPE VALUES SHOW LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER...ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN INCREASE IN THE 700-500MB LAPSE RATES (ONLY TO 6.5C/KM) LATER IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY BUT BELIEVE THAT WILL BE LARGELY AFTER THE MAIN PRECIPITATION. THUS...DECIDED TO PULL THE THUNDER CHANCES FROM ALL BUT THE SOUTH CENTRAL WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. THE AREA WILL SEE A BRIEF DRY PERIOD OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE REST OF THE DAY THURSDAY. MOISTURE IS PRETTY LIMITED WITH THE FRONT AND THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS EAST THROUGH ONTARIO...SO CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO GO WITH ANYTHING MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS IT MOVES THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. WILL SPREAD CHANCE POPS INTO THE AREA WITH THIS WAVE AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW IN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA FRIDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A SECONDARY WAVE ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WAVE WILL STRENGTHEN THE LOW AND LIKELY DEVELOP A WARM FRONT EASTWARD THROUGH WISCONSIN. THAT SHOULD BE THE FOCUS OF MOST OF THE CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...KEEPING IT PREDOMINATELY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT STILL THINK WE WILL SEE SOME SHOWERS ON THE NORTH END AND WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR THAT PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER...AS THE AREA IS ON THE GRADIENT OF THE BETTER INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH. AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO WESTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY AND THEN INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR SUNDAY. THAT WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN AND MAYBE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA. THE WAVE WILL DEPART SUNDAY NIGHT AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ARRIVING BEHIND THE WAVE SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY MONDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 ALTHOUGH A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THRU THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND CAUSE VARYING WINDS...A RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND HI STABILITY OVER THE CHILLY LAKE WATERS WILL HOLD WINDS UNDER 20KTS THRU THE WEEK. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...SRF AVIATION...ROLFSON MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
1236 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 AT 330 AM...IT WAS CLEAR ACROSS THE CWA. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WERE SPREADING IN FROM THE DAKOTAS...REACHING NW AND WC MN. TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 30S IN THE NORTH TO 60 AT SAXON HARBOR. MOST LOCATIONS WERE IN THE 30S NORTH AND 40S SOUTH WITH LIGHT WINDS. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE EARLY TODAY...TO LOW PRESSURE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING IN A WETTER DIRECTION FOR THE MOST PART...AND WE HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THE MOST PART. TODAY SHOULD START OUT CLEAR AND COOL ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IN THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE EASTWARD AS THE DAY WEARS ON. SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY HIGH AND MID CLOUDS. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRENT MODEL TRENDS. IN FACT...THE 06Z RAP SHOWS PRECIPITATION REACHING KDLH BY 00Z THIS EVENING. THE 07Z HRRR ONLY GOES THROUGH 22Z BUT HAS RAIN SHOWERS IN THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA AT THAT TIME. THE HOPWRF IS A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH SOME OF THEIR MEMBERS BUT GENERALLY HAS PRECIPITATION EXPANDING INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. GIVEN THE TRENDS...WILL HAVE HIGH POPS IN THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA LATER TODAY. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT TRICKIER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS. WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WILL LIKELY SEE A COOL DOWN AFTER REACHING DAYTIME MAXES...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST. AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL ALSO SEE A COOL DOWN AS A LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPS THIS AFTN. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AND WE HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE IN THE SOUTH. HAVE STAYED WITH MAINLY CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTH AND IT MAY ACTUALLY REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE BORDER REGION. QPF AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE HALF INCH RANGE IN THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION...WITH A QUARTER INCH FURTHER EAST INTO THE TWIN PORTS AND THE UPPER SAINT CROIX RIVER VALLEY. LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED NORTH AND EAST. COULD BE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH LATER TONIGHT. WEDNESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A WET DAY FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON...SPECIFICALLY IN THE NORTH AND WEST. THE 06Z NAM HAS STARTED TRENDING IN FAVOR OF THE GFS...AND HAS A HIGHER AREA OF QPF FROM THE HEAD OF THE LAKES INTO NEIGHBORING AREAS OF NW WI. AMOUNTS WILL BE VARIABLE BUT WE COULD SEE SOME BASIN AVERAGE AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE POPS ALIGNED WITH FROPA. A SECOND...WEAKER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKS INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA BY 06Z THURSDAY AND HAVE SOME POPS HERE AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN MODELS. THE NAM HAS A BIT OF QPF ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AFTER 06Z...THE GFS IS DRY WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE ROBUST WITH ITS QPF. LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE NAM WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS/POPS ALONG THE BORDER. THE SAME GOES FOR THE FAR SE CORNER OF THE AREA WHERE SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT. ON THURSDAY...THE NAM/ECMWF HAVE A LITTLE BIT OF QPF WITH ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION. THE GFS/GEM ARE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD. USED A MODEL BLEND WHICH RESULTED IN A DRY FORECAST. THE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT SETTING UP A WAA/RETURN FLOW LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN ON FRIDAY AS THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN IN WESTERN SD. A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT FEATURES A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE CRUISING THROUGH MN BY 00Z SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...DRY AIR LINGERS OVER NW WI. DIFFERENCES IN THE QPF FIELD SUGGEST LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHERE AND WHEN THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND HOW THEY WILL AFFECT THE AREA. USED BLENDED POPS AS A RESULT. LARGE DIFFERENCES ABOUND FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN INVERTED TROF MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SFC LOW SOMEWHERE IN SD OR NEBRASKA. AS SUCH...THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SET UP WILL DETERMINE WHERE THUNDERSTORMS INITIATE. AT THE MOMENT...HAVE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH IS A COMPROMISE. THIS SFC TROF MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. LOWER POPS TO THE WEST. UNCERTAINTY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING RAIN CHANCES AS A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS. THE UNSTABLE PATTERN PERSISTS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH CONTINUING OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SRN MINNESOTA TONIGHT AND SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AROUND BRD...AND ACROSS HIB DLH AND HYR TONIGHT. INL SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. VFR CIGS TODAY WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR TONIGHT AND WED MORNING. COULD SEE PERIODS OF IFR VSBYS IN -RA/BR THROUGH MID WED MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE E/SE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 68 49 64 48 / 10 70 60 20 INL 70 48 70 48 / 0 20 20 20 BRD 64 51 68 52 / 60 90 60 10 HYR 72 51 67 51 / 10 70 70 40 ASX 67 48 64 49 / 0 60 60 40 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DAP LONG TERM...GSF AVIATION...TENTINGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
638 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 AT 330 AM...IT WAS CLEAR ACROSS THE CWA. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WERE SPREADING IN FROM THE DAKOTAS...REACHING NW AND WC MN. TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 30S IN THE NORTH TO 60 AT SAXON HARBOR. MOST LOCATIONS WERE IN THE 30S NORTH AND 40S SOUTH WITH LIGHT WINDS. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE EARLY TODAY...TO LOW PRESSURE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING IN A WETTER DIRECTION FOR THE MOST PART...AND WE HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THE MOST PART. TODAY SHOULD START OUT CLEAR AND COOL ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IN THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE EASTWARD AS THE DAY WEARS ON. SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY HIGH AND MID CLOUDS. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRENT MODEL TRENDS. IN FACT...THE 06Z RAP SHOWS PRECIPITATION REACHING KDLH BY 00Z THIS EVENING. THE 07Z HRRR ONLY GOES THROUGH 22Z BUT HAS RAIN SHOWERS IN THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA AT THAT TIME. THE HOPWRF IS A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH SOME OF THEIR MEMBERS BUT GENERALLY HAS PRECIPITATION EXPANDING INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. GIVEN THE TRENDS...WILL HAVE HIGH POPS IN THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA LATER TODAY. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT TRICKIER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS. WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WILL LIKELY SEE A COOL DOWN AFTER REACHING DAYTIME MAXES...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST. AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL ALSO SEE A COOL DOWN AS A LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPS THIS AFTN. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AND WE HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE IN THE SOUTH. HAVE STAYED WITH MAINLY CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTH AND IT MAY ACTUALLY REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE BORDER REGION. QPF AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE HALF INCH RANGE IN THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION...WITH A QUARTER INCH FURTHER EAST INTO THE TWIN PORTS AND THE UPPER SAINT CROIX RIVER VALLEY. LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED NORTH AND EAST. COULD BE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH LATER TONIGHT. WEDNESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A WET DAY FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON...SPECIFICALLY IN THE NORTH AND WEST. THE 06Z NAM HAS STARTED TRENDING IN FAVOR OF THE GFS...AND HAS A HIGHER AREA OF QPF FROM THE HEAD OF THE LAKES INTO NEIGHBORING AREAS OF NW WI. AMOUNTS WILL BE VARIABLE BUT WE COULD SEE SOME BASIN AVERAGE AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE POPS ALIGNED WITH FROPA. A SECOND...WEAKER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKS INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA BY 06Z THURSDAY AND HAVE SOME POPS HERE AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN MODELS. THE NAM HAS A BIT OF QPF ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AFTER 06Z...THE GFS IS DRY WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE ROBUST WITH ITS QPF. LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE NAM WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS/POPS ALONG THE BORDER. THE SAME GOES FOR THE FAR SE CORNER OF THE AREA WHERE SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT. ON THURSDAY...THE NAM/ECMWF HAVE A LITTLE BIT OF QPF WITH ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION. THE GFS/GEM ARE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD. USED A MODEL BLEND WHICH RESULTED IN A DRY FORECAST. THE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT SETTING UP A WAA/RETURN FLOW LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN ON FRIDAY AS THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN IN WESTERN SD. A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT FEATURES A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE CRUISING THROUGH MN BY 00Z SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...DRY AIR LINGERS OVER NW WI. DIFFERENCES IN THE QPF FIELD SUGGEST LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHERE AND WHEN THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND HOW THEY WILL AFFECT THE AREA. USED BLENDED POPS AS A RESULT. LARGE DIFFERENCES ABOUND FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN INVERTED TROF MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SFC LOW SOMEWHERE IN SD OR NEBRASKA. AS SUCH...THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SET UP WILL DETERMINE WHERE THUNDERSTORMS INITIATE. AT THE MOMENT...HAVE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH IS A COMPROMISE. THIS SFC TROF MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. LOWER POPS TO THE WEST. UNCERTAINTY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING RAIN CHANCES AS A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS. THE UNSTABLE PATTERN PERSISTS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH CONTINUING OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 VFR AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT IS FORECAST TO BRING LIGHT RAIN BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. THE ONLY VSBY RESTRICTION WILL BE AT BRD WHERE MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED BY 03Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 68 49 64 48 / 10 70 60 20 INL 70 48 70 48 / 0 20 20 20 BRD 64 51 68 52 / 60 90 60 10 HYR 72 51 67 51 / 10 70 70 40 ASX 67 48 64 49 / 0 60 60 40 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DAP LONG TERM...GSF AVIATION...GSF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
352 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 AT 330 AM...IT WAS CLEAR ACROSS THE CWA. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WERE SPREADING IN FROM THE DAKOTAS...REACHING NW AND WC MN. TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 30S IN THE NORTH TO 60 AT SAXON HARBOR. MOST LOCATIONS WERE IN THE 30S NORTH AND 40S SOUTH WITH LIGHT WINDS. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE EARLY TODAY...TO LOW PRESSURE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING IN A WETTER DIRECTION FOR THE MOST PART...AND WE HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THE MOST PART. TODAY SHOULD START OUT CLEAR AND COOL ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IN THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE EASTWARD AS THE DAY WEARS ON. SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY HIGH AND MID CLOUDS. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRENT MODEL TRENDS. IN FACT...THE 06Z RAP SHOWS PRECIPITATION REACHING KDLH BY 00Z THIS EVENING. THE 07Z HRRR ONLY GOES THROUGH 22Z BUT HAS RAIN SHOWERS IN THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA AT THAT TIME. THE HOPWRF IS A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH SOME OF THEIR MEMBERS BUT GENERALLY HAS PRECIPITATION EXPANDING INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. GIVEN THE TRENDS...WILL HAVE HIGH POPS IN THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA LATER TODAY. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT TRICKIER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS. WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WILL LIKELY SEE A COOL DOWN AFTER REACHING DAYTIME MAXES...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST. AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL ALSO SEE A COOL DOWN AS A LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPS THIS AFTN. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AND WE HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE IN THE SOUTH. HAVE STAYED WITH MAINLY CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTH AND IT MAY ACTUALLY REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE BORDER REGION. QPF AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE HALF INCH RANGE IN THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION...WITH A QUARTER INCH FURTHER EAST INTO THE TWIN PORTS AND THE UPPER SAINT CROIX RIVER VALLEY. LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED NORTH AND EAST. COULD BE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH LATER TONIGHT. WEDNESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A WET DAY FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON...SPECIFICALLY IN THE NORTH AND WEST. THE 06Z NAM HAS STARTED TRENDING IN FAVOR OF THE GFS...AND HAS A HIGHER AREA OF QPF FROM THE HEAD OF THE LAKES INTO NEIGHBORING AREAS OF NW WI. AMOUNTS WILL BE VARIABLE BUT WE COULD SEE SOME BASIN AVERAGE AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE POPS ALIGNED WITH FROPA. A SECOND...WEAKER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKS INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA BY 06Z THURSDAY AND HAVE SOME POPS HERE AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN MODELS. THE NAM HAS A BIT OF QPF ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AFTER 06Z...THE GFS IS DRY WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE ROBUST WITH ITS QPF. LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE NAM WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS/POPS ALONG THE BORDER. THE SAME GOES FOR THE FAR SE CORNER OF THE AREA WHERE SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT. ON THURSDAY...THE NAM/ECMWF HAVE A LITTLE BIT OF QPF WITH ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION. THE GFS/GEM ARE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD. USED A MODEL BLEND WHICH RESULTED IN A DRY FORECAST. THE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT SETTING UP A WAA/RETURN FLOW LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN ON FRIDAY AS THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN IN WESTERN SD. A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT FEATURES A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE CRUISING THROUGH MN BY 00Z SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...DRY AIR LINGERS OVER NW WI. DIFFERENCES IN THE QPF FIELD SUGGEST LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHERE AND WHEN THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND HOW THEY WILL AFFECT THE AREA. USED BLENDED POPS AS A RESULT. LARGE DIFFERENCES ABOUND FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN INVERTED TROF MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SFC LOW SOMEWHERE IN SD OR NEBRASKA. AS SUCH...THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SET UP WILL DETERMINE WHERE THUNDERSTORMS INITIATE. AT THE MOMENT...HAVE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH IS A COMPROMISE. THIS SFC TROF MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. LOWER POPS TO THE WEST. UNCERTAINTY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING RAIN CHANCES AS A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS. THE UNSTABLE PATTERN PERSISTS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH CONTINUING OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS FROM 5-8K FT WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. VFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN THAT MOVES IN AS WELL...AT THIS TIME WE LIMITED THE MENTION TO KBRD. CAPE VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN LIMITED ENOUGH FOR MAINLY SHOWERS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 68 49 64 48 / 10 70 60 20 INL 70 48 70 48 / 0 20 20 20 BRD 64 51 68 52 / 60 90 60 10 HYR 72 51 67 51 / 10 70 70 40 ASX 67 48 64 49 / 0 60 60 40 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DAP LONG TERM...GSF AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1221 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 THROUGH THIS EVENING...BREEZY NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT. SCATTERED/BROKEN CUMULUS WILL SPREAD THROUGH NE MINNESOTA...AND THERE COULD BE ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN FORECAST AREA. ADDED THE SHOWERS AS SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR AND HOPWRF HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE. LATER TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND THE DAKOTA WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT INTO MINNESOTA. THERE SHOULD BE CLEARING OVERNIGHT...AND THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BECOME VERY LIGHT. THIS WILL PROMOTE RADIATIONAL COOLING...SO LEANED ON THE COOLER MODEL GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES. LOWS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH THE COLDEST READINGS ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. MIGHT NEED TO LOWER THE FORECAST EVEN MORE. TUESDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN THE DAY OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN MINNESOTA...AND IT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY. SUNNY SKIES WILL GREET THE NORTHLAND AT SUNRISE AND THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT THERE SHOULD BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM THE WEST AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. SHOWERS COULD SPREAD INTO THE NORTHLAND FROM THE WEST...BEGINNING IN THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION...LATE IN THE DAY. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE PRIMARILY HOLDS OFF PCPN UNTIL THE EVENING...AFTER 00Z. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WED MORNING...BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO A GOOD PORTION OF THE NORTHLAND. AT THIS TIME THE BULK OF THE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH. A WEDGE OF DRY AIR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SIT OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES AND WRN ONTARIO REGION AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES AND SHUNT THE TRACK OF THE LOW TO THE SOUTH. KEEPING THE NRN THIRD OF THE CWA MOSTLY DRY. BY WED AFTERNOON...AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH SRN WI A STRONGER SURGE OF UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE LIFTED INTO THE AREA AND POSSIBLY TRIGGER A FEW T-STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA WED NIGHT AS A SECONDARY WEAK FRONT SLIDES ACROSS FAR NE MN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN ON THURSDAY AND THUR NIGHT...BUT MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY AS THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVES ALONG A WARM FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND WITH THE MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT...SO AT THIS TIME THERE IS NO INDICATION OF ANY SORT OF A SIGNIFICANT LAKE BREEZE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS FROM 5-8K FT WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. VFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN THAT MOVES IN AS WELL...AT THIS TIME WE LIMITED THE MENTION TO KBRD. CAPE VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN LIMITED ENOUGH FOR MAINLY SHOWERS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 49 64 48 68 / 40 50 10 10 INL 48 70 48 68 / 20 10 20 10 BRD 52 69 52 72 / 70 50 10 10 HYR 53 67 51 73 / 40 60 20 10 ASX 50 64 49 68 / 30 50 10 10 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI LONG TERM...TENTINGER AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
228 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015 .SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU... WEAK CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MT IN RESPONSE TO AFTN HEATING AND AREA OF PV IN WNW FLOW ALOFT. PRESSURE FALLS NOTED IN SOUTH CENTRAL MT WILL HELP TO SHIFT WINDS IN OUR CENTRAL PARTS TO THE EAST...SETTING UP A CONVERGENT AREA WHICH SHOULD BE FAVORED FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AS ACTIVITY BEGINS TO SPREAD OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN. BILLINGS DEW PT HAS FALLEN TO 45F SO WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE THE IMPACTS FROM DRIER AIR SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONVECTION OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THOUGH THE LOWER DEW PTS ARE KEEPING SBCAPES AT MODEST VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG AS OF THE 19Z MESOANALYSIS...SO TSTM ACTIVITY MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS HIGH RES MODELS ARE SUGGESTING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. PEAK POTENTIAL FOR BILLINGS WILL BE 22-01Z. OUR EAST IS STILL SEEING EFFECTS FROM LARGE AREA OF STRATUS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND BAKER IS STILL IN THE 50S...SO HAVE SCALED BACK POPS INTO THIS EVENING. FOCUS OF ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT 6-8 HRS WILL BE OVER OUR WEST HALF. ONLY OTHER ISSUE TONIGHT IS FOG IN OUR EAST. DEW PT SPREAD IS ONLY 4F AT BAKER AND HRRR IS SUGGESTIVE OF FOG LATE TONIGHT SO WILL ADD PATCHY FOG TO FALLON/CARTER. SFC RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SHIFT SOUTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE ADVECTION TO COMMENCE UP THE HIGH PLAINS. WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ZONAL RIDGING BUT WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND EVENING FRONTAL PASSAGE WE SHOULD SEE ISOLD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE WITHIN THE MORE DEEPLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA OVER WY/ SD/NE. TEMPS TOMORROW SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S. MORE INTERESTING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR US EMERGES THURSDAY AS WE CONTINUE TO MOIST ADVECT ALLOWING FOR PWATS TO RISE TO NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE AN INCH ACROSS OUR EAST. NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A LATE DAY PACIFIC SHORTWAVE BUT THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF RUNS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE...ALLOWING FOR 700MB TEMPS TO RISE TO NEAR +14C IN OUR SOUTH. AS A RESULT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE NORTH OF OUR CWA...OR AT THE VERY LEAST ACROSS OUR NORTH AND EAST PARTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY TO BE HIGHEST ACROSS OUR NORTH. IF THE NAM IS CORRECT IN SHOWING 2000+ J/KG OF CAPE ALONG WITH PLENTIFUL SHEAR...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT AN EPISODE OF SEVERE WX. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN HWO AND GRAPHIC. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL TAKE ANOTHER STEP UP WITH HIGHS FURTHER INTO THE 80S ON THURSDAY...AND MAYBE NEAR 90F IN OUR SOUTH SUCH AS NEAR SHERIDAN. JKL .LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE... EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT TO END THE WEEK INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND BUT DIVERGE BY MONDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A ZONAL FLOW WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ONTO THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. THIS LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A FEW DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BE ZONAL SUNDAY WITH SOME DRIER AIR POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN LESSENING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LOW AND TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT DIFFER IN TIMING BUT SOMETIME DURING THE MONDAY OR TUESDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE AREA. AS A RESULT...THE MONDAY/TUESDAY PERIOD LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST SHOT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S FOR MOST DAYS. HOOLEY && .AVIATION... A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES FOR ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF A KSHR-KBIL-ROUNDUP LINE. SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 04Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. HOOLEY && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 053/082 058/085 060/082 056/076 052/080 057/087 058/082 32/T 23/T 34/T 43/T 21/B 11/B 12/T LVM 047/081 050/083 053/082 048/074 046/081 050/087 051/083 32/T 33/T 33/T 42/T 11/B 11/B 12/T HDN 053/084 056/086 058/084 056/076 050/080 055/088 057/083 42/T 23/T 34/T 44/T 21/B 11/B 12/T MLS 053/082 059/083 060/083 055/076 050/075 055/084 055/080 13/T 34/T 44/T 44/T 22/T 12/T 22/T 4BQ 051/081 057/083 059/083 055/076 049/075 054/087 054/080 23/T 34/T 44/T 44/T 21/B 11/B 11/B BHK 047/078 055/077 058/082 055/075 049/073 052/081 054/076 22/T 34/T 54/T 44/T 22/T 12/T 22/T SHR 049/079 053/086 055/081 052/073 047/075 050/086 052/080 43/T 22/T 24/T 44/T 31/B 11/B 12/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
906 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015 .UPDATE... QUIET WX THIS MORNING AS EARLY MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS EXITED INTO THE DAKOTAS. CLOUD COVER AND COOL EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD LARGELY SUPPRESS CONVECTION FROM THIS POINT ON ACROSS OUR EAST AND HAVE SCALED BACK POPS TO ISOLD. LOOKING UPSTREAM... WEAK PV IN ID IS MOVING INTO WESTERN MT. THOUGH WE WILL SEE GRADUALLY RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS...WEAK SHORTWAVE TO OUR WEST COMBINED WITH CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL WINDS AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE MAY PROMOTE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ALONG OUR WESTERN FOOTHILLS AND FROM 3HT TO BIL...AS 00Z NSSL WRF AND LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING. A STRONGER DISCRETE CELL IS POSSIBLE AND WILL KEEP HAIL/GUSTY WIND WORDING IN THE GRIDS IN THIS AREA. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT A DEVELOPING MID LEVEL CAP MAY PREVENT ACTIVITY FROM SPREADING VERY FAR OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN. HAVE TWEAKED POPS...SKY AND WINDS A BIT PER CURRENT CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S IN OUR EAST TO THE LOWER/MID 70S ELSEWHERE...IE STILL A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. JKL && .SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED... A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT RESULTED IN A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF I-90/94. THIS ACTIVITY IS SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS EARLY THIS MORNING. A SECOND AREA OF VORTICITY OVER IDAHO WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...IN GENERALLY THE SAME VICINITY AS THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY. LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING A BIT OF TAIL END JET ENERGY PUSHES INTO THE AREA PROVIDING SOME EXTRA LIFT OVER THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS...SPREADING INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OVER TIME FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FOR THE MOST PART THIS CONVECTION LOOKS FAIRLY WEAK. HOWEVER THE 00Z NSSL AND NCAR WRF ENSEMBLES SHOW SOME STRONGER CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG A SHEAR/CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY OVER WHEATLAND COUNTY MID AFTERNOON...TRAVERSING SOUTHEAST INTO THE BILLINGS AREA AROUND 6 PM AND THEN CONTINUING INTO THE SHERIDAN AREA MID EVENING. 40-50KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG WOULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG STORMS...THOUGH THIS LOOKS TO BE A NARROW CORRIDOR RIGHT ALONG THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE. ADDED MENTION OF SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS TO THIS AREA AND CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM SO WILL BE WATCHING THIS AREA CLOSELY GIVEN THE POTENTIAL TO IMPACT THE BILLINGS VICINITY. HEIGHT RISES LATE TONIGHT INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY WILL HELP SUPPRESS CONVECTION BELOW LEVELS SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THERE IS STILL PACIFIC ENERGY MOVING OVER THE AREA SO CAN`T GO DRY BUT 20 TO AT MOST 30 POPS SEEM REASONABLE. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE 65 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE WITH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER MOVING THROUGH. FOR WEDNESDAY MORE SUN AND RISING HEIGHTS WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S MOST AREAS. CHAMBERS .LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAKDOWN DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH MAKE THEIR WAY ONSHORE. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AND PLACE SOUTHERN MT IN AN AREA RIPE FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER. LOOKING AT THE SPC SREF GUIDANCE A FEW THINGS STICK OUT. LIFTED INDICES OF LESS THAN -2 COVER MOST OF THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES. SUPERCELL COMPOSITE INDEX ALSO LOOKS DECENT OVER THE SAME AREA WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 40 KTS. ALL OF THIS WILL COMBINE FOR A POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT THURSDAY EVENING. THIS COULD BE THE MOST ORGANIZED EVENT IN THE BYZ CWA THIS YEAR TO DATE. JUST FOR FUN...TOOK A LOOK AT THE CIPS ANALOG IMPACT GUIDANCE FOR THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DOMAIN FOR THURSDAY EVENING. THE HISTORICAL DATA FOR SIMILAR EVENTS HINTS THAT HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. BY FRIDAY THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS SOMEWHAT ZONAL. MODELS PROGGING A STRONG POCKET OF ENERGY OVER NW MONTANA BY FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS DISAGREE A LITTLE BIT IN THE POSITIONING OF PRECIPITATION...BUT APPEARS TO PRESENT A GOOD CHANCE FOR A NOCTURNAL RAIN EVENT OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY MOVES EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN MT. AFTER A COOLER DAY ON SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN NICELY BY MONDAY AND TEMPS WILL CLIMB BACK WELL INTO THE 80S. SINGER && .AVIATION... EXPECT A PARTLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY 18Z ACROSS THE KLVM AREA WITH THE ACTIVITY MOVING EAST TOWARD KBIL BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND FAR EASTERN MONTANA BY THIS EVENING. SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. HOOLEY && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 073 053/082 058/084 059/082 056/075 051/080 057/087 3/T 42/T 23/T 34/T 44/T 21/B 11/B LVM 073 047/079 050/083 053/082 048/073 045/081 050/087 3/T 32/T 34/T 34/T 42/T 11/B 11/B HDN 074 054/084 059/086 059/084 056/075 049/080 055/088 3/T 42/T 23/T 34/T 44/T 21/B 11/B MLS 071 053/082 059/081 058/083 055/075 049/075 055/084 2/W 23/T 24/T 44/T 55/T 22/T 11/B 4BQ 071 051/081 058/083 058/083 055/075 048/075 054/087 2/T 23/T 24/T 45/T 66/T 22/T 11/B BHK 063 048/078 055/076 055/082 055/074 048/073 052/081 2/T 22/T 34/T 54/T 44/T 22/T 11/B SHR 070 051/078 054/084 055/081 052/072 046/075 050/086 3/T 43/T 22/T 34/T 44/T 31/B 11/B && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
408 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 .SYNOPSIS...STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A SURFACE COOL FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT... THEN DIP SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA EARLY WEDNESDAY... BEFORE GRADUALLY WASHING OUT LATER IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... AS OF 325 PM TUESDAY... LITTLE CHANGE WITH ANOTHER WARM FAIR NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE AREA...WITH THE MID/UPR RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STILL IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. NOT TOO FAR TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION AND THE OHIO VALLEY IS A COLD FRONT THATS GRADUALLY MOVING ESE. THE HRRR ONCE AGAIN IS TRYING TO DEVELOP PREFRONTAL SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VA AND BRING THEM SOUTHWARD SKIRTING OUR NORTHERN/NORTHEAST ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...THE HRRR SEEMS OVERDONE AND THE LATEST MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT ANY CELLS THAT DEVELOP TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE INTO RELATIVELY DRIER AIR OVER OUR AREA...SO FOR NOW... WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING LIMITED TO OUR FAR NE ZONES...WITH MOST OF CENTRAL NC REMAINING DRY. PERSISTENCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT...LOWER TO MID 70S...COOLEST NW. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 325 PM TUESDAY... THE WEAK BOUNDARY CURRENTLY TO OUR NORTH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTH...BUT A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE INTO THE PERSISTENT MID/UPR RIDGE. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST IT WILL MOVE INTO NE NC AS A BACKDOOR FRONT WHILE THE ECMWF IS ALSO MOVES IT ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING LATE ON WEDNESDAY. BOTH SUGGEST SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ABOUT 20M LOWER THAN TODAY...AND COOLEST READINGS ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST ZONES WHERE THE BEST CHANCE FOR POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS MODIFICATION WILL OCCUR. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 90 ACROSS OUR NE ZONES...TO MID-UPR 90S ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ZONES...WHERE LITTLE IF ANY AIRMASS MODIFICATION WILL OCCUR. HEAT INDICES ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES (WHERE THE HOTTEST TEMPS WILL BE) ARE EXPECTED TO FALL SHORT OF ADVISORY VALUES...SO FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY AND WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT RE-EVALUATE PENDING TONIGHTS GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE...THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE MID-MISS RIVER VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...EXITING THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LATEST ROUND OF CAMS SUGGEST SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOC WITH THIS WAVE WILL TRACK EAST ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC...WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY PERHAPS EXTENDING SOUTH INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL NC LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGHEST POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 400 PM TUESDAY... THU-SAT: THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...THEN RECEDE TO THE DEEP SOUTH/SOUTHEAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES (INCLUDING THE REMNANTS OF TC BILL) TRACKING EASTWARD (ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE) INTO THE MID- ATLANTIC. EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE...THOUGH HIGHS ARE UNLIKELY TO EXCEED THE MID/UPPER 90S GIVEN AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY ON FRI/SAT AS BILL`S REMNANTS TRACK EAST OF THE MS RIVER THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AND MID- ATLANTIC. SUN-TUE: THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF/GFS SUGGEST THAT A PERIOD OF NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ENSUE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS UPSTREAM OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...CENTRAL PLAINS...AND LOWER MIDWEST. THEREAFTER...BOTH MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE CAROLINAS/MID- ATLANTIC. AS A RESULT...EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST...WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE (AGAIN) BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL MON-TUE WHEN NW FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO BE IN PLACE. SEVERE WEATHER CAN RARELY BE RULED OUT WHEN NW FLOW ALOFT IS PRESENT THIS TIME OF YEAR...PARTICULARLY WITH A STRENGTHENING UPSTREAM RIDGE. SUCH A PATTERN CAN DELIVER THE ATYPICAL INGREDIENTS NECESSARY FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER... I.E. A PRONOUNCED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AND ENHANCED DEEP LAYER SHEAR. -VINCENT && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 325 PM TUESDAY... VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE VA BORDER THIS EVENING...AND THIS COULD LOCALLY AND VERY BRIEFLY REDUCE FLT CONDITIONS TO MVFR... BUT RIGHT NOW THE RISK IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN OUR TAF SITES. W-NW WINDS AROUND 10 KT WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING ISOLATED LATE-DAY SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY. && .CLIMATE... REC HI DAY MAX YR MIN YR RDU RECORDS 06/16 98 1981 75 1998 06/17 99 1961 75 2004 06/18 98 1944 75 1935 GSO RECORDS 06/16 96 1914 73 2004 06/17 98 1944 76 2004 06/18 100 1944 73 1970 FAY RECORDS 06/16 100 1981 77 1998 06/17 101 1981 77 1945 06/18 102 1944 76 2004 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT TODAY FOR NCZ007>011-023>028- 039>043-073>078-083>086-088-089. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RAH NEAR TERM...RAH SHORT TERM...RAH LONG TERM...VINCENT AVIATION...RAH CLIMATE...MLM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
325 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 .SYNOPSIS...STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A SURFACE COOL FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT... THEN DIP SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA EARLY WEDNESDAY... BEFORE GRADUALLY WASHING OUT LATER IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... AS OF 325 PM TUESDAY... LITTLE CHANGE WITH ANOTHER WARM FAIR NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE AREA...WITH THE MID/UPR RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STILL IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. NOT TOO FAR TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION AND THE OHIO VALLEY IS A COLD FRONT THATS GRADUALLY MOVING ESE. THE HRRR ONCE AGAIN IS TRYING TO DEVELOP PREFRONTAL SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VA AND BRING THEM SOUTHWARD SKIRTING OUR NORTHERN/NORTHEAST ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...THE HRRR SEEMS OVERDONE AND THE LATEST MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT ANY CELLS THAT DEVELOP TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE INTO RELATIVELY DRIER AIR OVER OUR AREA...SO FOR NOW... WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING LIMITED TO OUR FAR NE ZONES...WITH MOST OF CENTRAL NC REMAINING DRY. PERSISTENCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT...LOWER TO MID 70S...COOLEST NW. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 325 PM TUESDAY... THE WEAK BOUNDARY CURRENTLY TO OUR NORTH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTH...BUT A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE INTO THE PERSISTENT MID/UPR RIDGE. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST IT WILL MOVE INTO NE NC AS A BACKDOOR FRONT WHILE THE ECMWF IS ALSO MOVES IT ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING LATE ON WEDNESDAY. BOTH SUGGEST SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ABOUT 20M LOWER THAN TODAY...AND COOLEST READINGS ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST ZONES WHERE THE BEST CHANCE FOR POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS MODIFICATION WILL OCCUR. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 90 ACROSS OUR NE ZONES...TO MID-UPR 90S ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ZONES...WHERE LITTLE IF ANY AIRMASS MODIFICATION WILL OCCUR. HEAT INDICES ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES (WHERE THE HOTTEST TEMPS WILL BE) ARE EXPECTED TO FALL SHORT OF ADVISORY VALUES...SO FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY AND WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT RE-EVALUATE PENDING TONIGHTS GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE...THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE MID-MISS RIVER VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...EXITING THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LATEST ROUND OF CAMS SUGGEST SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOC WITH THIS WAVE WILL TRACK EAST ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC...WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY PERHAPS EXTENDING SOUTH INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL NC LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGHEST POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 235 AM TUESDAY... WITH BILL HAVING DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS...THE LATEST (00Z) RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AS IT MOVES INLAND. THE REMNANTS OF BILL ARE FORECAST TO GET ABSORBED BY THE WESTERLIES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...RESULTING IN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPINGING ON THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH VA AND PA. AS OF THE LATEST RUNS THE MAIN ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD STAY TO OUR NW AND NORTH. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ACTUALLY APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN CENTRAL NC IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED S/W TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE HIGH OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. CONVECTION MAY LINGER ACROSS THE EAST ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAY END UP BEING MOSTLY DRY WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM POSSIBLE... ALTHOUGH KEEP IN MIND THAT IS PRETTY FAR OUT AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH AT THIS TIME. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 325 PM TUESDAY... VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE VA BORDER THIS EVENING...AND THIS COULD LOCALLY AND VERY BRIEFLY REDUCE FLT CONDITIONS TO MVFR... BUT RIGHT NOW THE RISK IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN OUR TAF SITES. W-NW WINDS AROUND 10 KT WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING ISOLATED LATE-DAY SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY. && .CLIMATE... REC HI DAY MAX YR MIN YR RDU RECORDS 06/16 98 1981 75 1998 06/17 99 1961 75 2004 06/18 98 1944 75 1935 GSO RECORDS 06/16 96 1914 73 2004 06/17 98 1944 76 2004 06/18 100 1944 73 1970 FAY RECORDS 06/16 100 1981 77 1998 06/17 101 1981 77 1945 06/18 102 1944 76 2004 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT TODAY FOR NCZ007>011-023>028- 039>043-073>078-083>086-088-089. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RAH NEAR TERM...RAH SHORT TERM...RAH LONG TERM...RAH AVIATION...RAH CLIMATE...MLM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
205 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A PROLONGED HEAT WAVE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH A THERMAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN DISSIPATE. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 100 PM TUE...ANOTHER MINOR UPDATE FOR LATEST HOURLY TEMP AND DEW PT TRENDS. TEMPS APPROACHING 100 INLAND AND EVEN 98 AT KITTY HAWK..BUT NW WINDS INLAND HAVE ALLOWED DEW PTS TO DROP INTO LOWER 60S COASTAL PLAINS KEEPING HEAT INDICES TO AROUND 100 FOR NOW. LATEST HRRR INDICATES ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER HYDE/DARE MAINLAND AREAS NEXT FEW HOURS AND THERE IS SOME CU DEVELOPING THERE...BUT DO NOT SEE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO ADD 20 POP. /PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/ AS OF 635 AM TUESDAY...THE BIG STORY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RECORD HEAT WITH HIGHS INLAND IN THE LOW 100S IN COMBINATION WITH HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS (DEWPOINTS 67-75F) PRODUCING DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX VALUES 105 DEGREES OR HIGHER. THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL REACH IT`S PEAK TODAY. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL WARM THE ATMOSPHERE RESULTING IN 850 TEMPS 22-23C AND 1000/850 THICKNESS VALUES 1440-1450 YIELDING TEMPERATURES AT OR IN EXCESS OF 100 DEGREES. INITIAL WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP TO PIN THE SEA BREEZE TO THE COAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON SO THAT EVEN THE BEACHES WILL NOT ESCAPE HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TODAY. CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS KEEP TODAY DRY WITH SUBSIDENCE AS INDICATED BY THE LARGE AREA OF DRY MID LEVEL AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THAT TREND ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER/STORM CAN`T BE RULED OUT. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 405 AM TUESDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE PASSAGE OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NC TONIGHT. WHILE THE MODELS AGREE THAT THE FLOW WILL TEMPORARILY SHIFT TO NORTH OVERNIGHT THEY ARE GIVING MIXED RESULTS ON THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. THE HIGH RESOLUTION CAM MODELS INDICATE THAT A MCS WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST VICINITY OF THE FRONT ACROSS NC THIS EVENING WITH THE WRF NMM THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE MOSTLY DRY BRINGING IN CLOUDS BUT LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL. IT IS NOTED THAT THE SPC HAS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK MEANING THAT STRONG CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE SHOULD THESE STORMS MATERIALIZE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWS 70S DEEP INLAND TO A SULTRY 80 AT THE BEACHES. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 445 AM TUESDAY...A PERSISTENT SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH EASTERN NC EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TYPICAL DIURNAL TYPE SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE HOLDS STRONG. THURSDAY COULD SEE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR TSTORMS AS THE PIEDMONT THERMAL TROUGH RE-ESTABLISHES WEST OF THE AREA WITH A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTING OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST, CREATING A WEAK LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE AREA CENTERED OVER EASTERN NC THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NAM/GFS FAVOR A WETTER SCENARIO WHILE THE ECMWF SUGGEST DRIER LOW LEVELS AND QUICKER SHIFT OF CONFLUENCE ZONE OFF THE COAST. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS INLAND TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG/OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ONLY DROP BY AROUND 20 METERS AND 850MB TEMPS BY ABOUT 2 DEGREES SO WILL NOT SEE A SIGNIFICANT RELIEF FROM THE HEAT THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE MID 90S INLAND TO 85-90 ALONG THE COAST. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SLIGHT DIFFERENCES CONTINUE IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE LATE IN THE PERIOD, MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH HOW THEY HANDLE THE TRACK/MOISTURE PLUME OF TROPICAL STORM BILL CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST. CURRENT GUIDANCE KEEPS THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE BECOMES SHUNTED SOUTHEAST SLIGHTLY OFF THE FL COAST BY SATURDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS SUGGEST A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO EASTERN NC LATE FRIDAY, THOUGH BEST UPPER SUPPORT/FORCING REMAIN IN CENTRAL VA, WITH THE FRONT WASHING OUT OVER THE REGION SATURDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AGAIN ENSUES OVER EASTERN NC. GUIDANCE DIFFERS MORE WITH LOCATION OF DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THE ECMWF MOVING THE MOISTURE THROUGH EASTERN NC FRI NIGHT, WHILE THE GFS KEEPS DEEPER MOISTURE OVER EASTERN NC THROUGH SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MAINLY DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP 850MB TEMPS AROUND 20 DEGREES WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AROUND 1425-1440M SO THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE AND EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 90S INLAND WITH 85-90 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ZONAL FLOW STARTS THE PERIOD WITH A UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY DIGGING INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY THE CAROLINAS WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. CONTINUE DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH 850MB TEMPS REMAINING AROUND 20 DEGREES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING HIGHS IN THE 90S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 130 PM MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...THEREFORE REDUCING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOPMENT FOR THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APRROACH OUR AREA FROM THE NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS ARE INDICATING MOST OF THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DIMINISH AS IT MOVES INTO OUR AREA. PLUS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING NO FOG DEVELOPMENT AS TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT IS ABOVE 5 DEGREE SPREAD. OVERALL...EXPECT SCATTERED CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON UNDER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 450 AM TUES...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TAF SITES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ISOLATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN MAINLY DIURNAL STORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. PRE-DAWN STRATUS AND/OR FOG MAY PRODUCE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE PRECIPITATION. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 100 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE. LATEST GDNC SUPPORTS CURRENT WESTERLY WINDS BECOMING SW AND INCREASING TO 10-15 KT LATE THIS AFTN AS THERMAL TROFFING SHARPENS INLAND. /PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/ AS OF 635 AM TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS CURRENTLY 10 TO 15 KT WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH TO 10 KT LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TO 15 KT LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT WITH THE FLOW SHIFTING TO NORTH AROUND 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT TODAY WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT TONIGHT WITH SOME 5 FT SEAS POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS LATE. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 450 AM TUES...A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL DROP THROUGH THE WATERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH FLOW BECOMING SOUTHERLY THEN SOUTHWESTERLY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS INTO FRIDAY. SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 4 FEET ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD, HOWEVER SEAS MAY BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. && .CLIMATE... RECORD HIGHS TODAY: 6/16 LOCATION TEMP/YEAR NEW BERN 95/1981 (KEWN ASOS) HATTERAS 92/1981 (KHSE ASOS) GREENVILLE 100/1981 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS) MOREHEAD CITY 98/1981 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS) KINSTON 99/1944 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS) JACKSONVILLE 101/1981 (KNCA AWOS) && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ029-044>047- 079>081-090>095-098-103-104. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JME NEAR TERM...JME/JBM SHORT TERM...JME LONG TERM...SK/DAG AVIATION...DAG/BM MARINE...JME/JBM/SK/DAG CLIMATE...MHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
148 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WARM HUMID AIR MASS OVER THE STATE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL COMBINE TO SPARK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... NOT A LOT OF STORMS IN OUR AREA. MAIN CONCERN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE THE FAR SW COUNTIES...AS MORE STORMS OVER EASTERN OH TRACK EASTWARD. STILL HAVE TO WATCH THE NW AREAS LATER THIS MORNING...AS MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE OVER NW OH. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW. TOUCHED UP FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS ON RADAR AND THE HI RES MODEL RUNS. LOOKING TO THE WEST CAN SEE THE COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN OH. THE HRRR MOVES THIS INTO CENTRAL PA ABOUT 04Z AND GRADUALLY WEAKENS IT AS ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST PROBABLY WHAT IS BACK OVER THE CHICAGO AREA. THIS REACHES CENTRAL PA AFTER 09Z ACCORDING TO THE HRRR. THE 18Z NAM12 RUN FOCUSES MORE ON PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THERE IS AMBLE MOISTURE AND HIGHER PWATS WITH THE NEXT BATCH THAT WILL MOVE IN. HENCE THE CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING FOR ANY AREAS GETTING REPEAT STORM CELLS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY NORTH AND CENTRAL...WHILE THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT SHIFTS SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AS UPPER TROF WEAKENS AND MOVES ESE ACROSS THE AREA AND H5 SHEAR AXIS BECOMES ALIGNED ALONG MASON DIXON LINE BY 00Z WED. SPC CONTINUES A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PA TUESDAY...THREAT LIMITED BY WEAKER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...AN EARLIER EXIT AND LIMITED CAPE. FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH MIDDAY HOURS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... STILL LOOKING LIKE A BREAK FROM THE STORMY CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF WED. MORE IN THE WAY OF SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILDS IN FOR THU. SOME SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...WHICH WILL DETERMINE IF WE SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF AND STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. EITHER WAY...DID UP POPS A LITTLE FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR POPS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR TEMPS. FOR MONDAY...LOOKING LIKE A SLIGHTLY STRONGER COLD FRONT. SOME SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...THUS WENT WITH RATHER LOW POPS AND DID NOT GO REAL COLD ON THE TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER WEST CENTRAL PA WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THESE STORMS WILL BRING VCTS TO JST AND AOO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE NW...MOST LIKELY AREA FOR CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT SHIFTS BACK TO THE NW PORTION OF CWA /AND MAY EXTEND INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS ON NOSE OF A LL JET/...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT BFD...JST...AOO AND UNV. CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS RETURN AS WELL WITH MANY AREAS SLIPPING BACK TO MVFR TO IFR OVERNIGHT. THESE RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z...IMPROVING BETWEEN 13Z TO 15Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH VARYING RESTRICTIONS IS PROBABLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR SE...MVFR NW. OUTLOOK... WED...PRIMARILY VFR. THU-SAT...CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR PAZ004>006-010>012- 017-018-024-025-033-034-037-041. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WATSON NEAR TERM...WATSON/DEVOIR/MARTIN SHORT TERM...WATSON/DEVOIR LONG TERM...MARTIN AVIATION...CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
844 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 841 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST MT THIS EVENING WERE HEADING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST SD. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SHOWED THIS CONVECTION HOLDING TOGETHER AND EXPANDING SOME AS IT HEADS SOUTHEAST INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL SD LATER TONIGHT. MAY ADJUST CHANCES UP A LITTLE AS IT GETS CLOSER. NOT MUCH FOR INSTABILITY INTO CENTRAL SD ALONG WITH ANY LLJ. UPDATE ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 AS EXPECTED...CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO ERODE TODAY BUT SKIES HAVE BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER CENTRAL SD. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...WILL BE WATCHING WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY ENTERING THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AS A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET ALSO DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. MODELS AGREE FAIRLY WELL IN BRINGING A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS WESTERN SD THEN INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY POTENTIAL COMPLEX IS THE BIG QUESTION. WILL KEEP POPS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME BUT EVENING/OVERNIGHT SHIFT MAY NEED TO INCREASE POPS ONCE THIS BEGINS TO EVOLVE. MUCAPE OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST CWA DOES SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT WITH DECENT AMOUNTS OF SHEAR. COULD POSSIBLY BE A FEW STRONGER STORMS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD. THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING LOOK GENERALLY DRY ACROSS THE AREA AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS MN AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE INITIAL PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. UNFORTUNATELY THERE IS NOT A LOT OF AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS IN REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND PLACEMENT OF BEST CONVERGENCE. NOT MUCH AGREEMENT ON WHERE THE POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL BE AS WELL. WILL THEN BE WATCHING FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE INCREASING THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS. SFC DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES ON FRIDAY. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPS BY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT MODELS DO STILL SHOW RATHER WARM TEMPS ALOFT SPREADING OVER THE REGION...SO CAPPING WILL BE AN ISSUE. SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH MODELS TRYING TO GENERATE CONVECTION. THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH TO BUST THROUGH THE CAP AND IF THIS HAPPENS...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE SVR PARAMETERS. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES AT 500 AND 700MB WILL EXIT THE REGION SAT MORNING. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/TSTORMS EARLY. ANOTHER WEAKER LOW WILL MOVES ACROSS ND SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTORMS. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY QUICK MOVING SFC LOWS AND SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK. MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY RESOLVING TIMING AND AREAL EXTENT AS IS TYPICAL WITH THESE PATTERNS SO STUCK WITH A MODEL BLENDED BROAD BRUSH APPROACH. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE MID 80S THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 MVFR CEILINGS OVER ATY WILL MOVE OUT THIS EVENING WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY AFFECT THE PIR AREA LATER ON TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH IN LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND. THERE WILL BE SOME SCT-BKN VFR/MVFR STRATUS FORM/MOVE INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AS WINDS BECOME EAST TO NORTHEAST. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MOHR SHORT TERM...TMT LONG TERM...WISE AVIATION...MOHR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1116 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 .UPDATE... UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE... && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 926 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015/ UPDATE... 925 PM KNQA RADAR SHOWED DISSIPATED SHOWERS OVER NORTH MS...WHILE WEST OF THE MS RIVER...A LONE SHOWER WAS NOTED AT GILMORE AR. 01Z HRRR MODEL DEPICTED LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL SHOWER POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS STABLE UNDER THE RELATIVELY WARM MIDLEVEL TEMPS. 00Z NAM SHOWS A SIMILAR SOLUTION. A FORTHCOMING UPDATE WILL FEATURE REDUCED RAIN CHANCES FOR THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK AT MIDEVENING. PWB PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015/ DISCUSSION... THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE MUCH LIKE THE PAST SEVERAL...WARM AND HUMID WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. ONE COULD SAY THE NEXT 30 OR 60 DAYS WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR AS WELL...ITS SUMMER. THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS EAST ARKANSAS...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STORM COULD POP UP VIRTUALLY ANYWHERE. THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT OF THIS UPDATE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL IMPACT FROM A TROPICAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. SYNOPTICALLY A BROAD VERTICALLY STACKED SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC STATES. THIS SETUP PUTS THE MIDSOUTH ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER TO OUR NORTH AND WEST AND THE HOTTER...BUT DRIER WEATHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THIS PATTERN REALLY ISN`T EXPECTED TO CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE SHOULD WEAKEN A BIT...LIKELY RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH. FARTHER SOUTH IN THE GULF...ALL EYES ARE FOCUSED ON A DEVELOPING TROPICAL SYSTEM...LIKELY TO BECOME OUR SECOND NAMED TROPICAL STORM OF THE YEAR. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A MAJOR PLAYER IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDSOUTH BY WEDNESDAY. CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS TAKES IT INSHORE NEAR HOUSTON ACROSS DALLAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA...THEN ARCING TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI. IF THIS SOLUTION VERIFIES...WE COULD SEE CONDITIONS AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MORE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND POSSIBLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTH. IF IT SHIFTS FARTHER WEST...THE ENTIRE AREA COULD BE INFLUENCED BY SUBSIDENCE ON THE OUTSKIRTS OF THE STORM RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AREA WIDE. IF ITS TRACK SHIFTS FARTHER EAST...WIDESPREAD RAIN WOULD BE MORE LIKELY AREA WIDE. STORM INTENSITY WOULD ALSO PLAY A ROLL...ALTHOUGH NOT AS BIG AS THE TRACK. GUIDANCE VARIES BY AS MUCH AS 24 HOURS FOR LANDFALL AND WHEN IT WOULD HAVE ITS GREATEST IMPACT ON THE MIDSOUTH. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE STORM SHOULD BE TOO FAR EAST TO PLAY MUCH OF A ROLE IN THE MIDSOUTH. THE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ZONAL. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES...HIGHS NEAR 90 WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S...AND NEAR NORMAL 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED. 30 .AVIATION... 06Z TAFS VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR VCTS TOMORROW WILL OCCUR AT JBR...BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z. ALL OTHER TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN PRECIP-FREE WITH WINDS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH FROM THE SOUTH. TVT && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. MO...NONE. MS...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
644 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2015 .DISCUSSION... Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast period, with light and variable/light easterly winds. The only caveat would be the potential for storms across New Mexico to expand SSE overnight, eventually affecting mainly KCNM and KHOB late tonight/early Thursday. However, confidence in this scenario is too low to include in the current TAF, though will bear watching. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2015/ DISCUSSION... Isolated showers have developed over the area this afternoon on the backside of Tropical Cyclone Bill which is now about to cross the Red River into OK. The majority of this activity will stay in the eastern Permian Basin before diminishing after sunset. As Bill lifts northeast, an upper ridge will try to build east across the Southern Plains. Before it does so, our region will remain in weak northerly mid level flow. If thunderstorms form over the TX Panhandle or NE NM later this afternoon or Thursday they will move south and may make it to the area during the overnight hours. Both the HRRR and WRF-NMM show a complex of showers and storms moving across eastern NM and W TX overnight. Rain chances diminish Friday into the weekend as the upper ridge takes hold on the area. Will need to monitor the strength of the ridge as recent models have shown a weakness/inverted trough developing over South Texas and slowly drifting it west. This solution could bring a few showers and storms back to the area from the east late in the weekend into next week. Much warmer conditions are expected tomorrow as mid level temperatures increase quite a bit. Expect highs to be about 5 to 10 degrees warmer than today. Temperatures will moderate somewhat into the weekend as easterly flow sets up along with abundant low level moisture. If we see the inverted trough move across the area early next week, high temperatures may struggle to get out of the 80s! && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: http://facebook.com/NWSMidland http://twitter.com/NWSMidland Check us out on the internet at: http://weather.gov/midland
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1235 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2015 .DISCUSSION... See 18Z aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION... MVFR CIGs are beginning to lift and scatter out to VFR across at the TAF sites. Any TAF site could see a brief return of these lower conditions but do not see this threat great enough to include in the TAFs. Scattered showers are also occurring across the area but very little if any lightning is being observed so will not mention any TS at this time. A return of MVFR CIGs is expected tonight and will last through mid morning Wednesday. Hennig && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2015/ DISCUSSION...As of 4:00 AM CDT Tuesday...the strong convection near Guadalupe NP has finally died out. Water Vapor imagery and GOES High Density winds are showing a ridge centered in the East Pacific west of Southern CA stretching into Northern Chihuahua and another ridge centered over the Southeastern US. A weakness in the pattern is centered over the Southern Plains with a weak upper low over TX...possibly enhanced by the MCV that was located over Reagan County earlier yesterday. TS Bill in the Gulf of Mexico continues to churn northwest towards the Southern TX coast. The latest NAM12 and HRRR develops convection over Central TX early this morning and move it southwest into the CWA in NE flow aloft. Based on the forecast track TS Bill will have minimal impact on the sensible weather for West TX and SE New Mexico. With fairly stable mid level lapse rates...low CAPE...and very weak Bulk Shear do not expect any severe wx. The main impact from the convection will be the possibility of heavy rain and localized flooding with PW`s near 1.5 inches and the slow movement of the storms. Temps will be relatively "cool" with ample cloud cover. Precip chances will be much less tonight through Wednesday night as the ridge in the Pacific and Northern Chihuahua builds east into Southwest TX. Models drop a vort max south thru West TX on Thursday around the eastern edge of the ridge. This could bring an increasing chance of convection Thursday and Thursday night. From Friday through early next week the ridge in the Eastern Pacific will move ENE...and become centered over the Southern Rockies/Central High Plains in response to a mid/upper trough in the Gulf of Alaska. Since the ridge will be centered north of the CWA it will leave the area in a deep layer easterly flow. Have kept temps near normal...more in line with the European MOS guidance. Felt that the GFS MOS guidance with temps above 100 for Midland was too high for this type of pattern. Even though the models don`t indicate it at this time...this type of pattern is conducive for isolated aftn convection...especially if any easterly waves move across the Gulf of Mexico. Strobin && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 10 Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: http://facebook.com/NWSMidland http://twitter.com/NWSMidland Check us out on the internet at: http://weather.gov/midland
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1217 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2015 .AVIATION... /18Z TAFS/ Scattered showers and thunderstorms will increase across all of West Central Texas this afternoon. Thunderstorms may result in brief MVFR conditions. A gradual decrease in convection is expected by mid to late evening. Stratus will once again develop this evening into early Wednesday morning, resulting in MVFR/IFR ceilings at all sites. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1103 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2015/ UPDATE... To increase PoPs... DISCUSSION... A very moist and increasingly unstable atmosphere will reside across West Central Texas today. Showers are already beginning to develop across the area, and coverage and intensity is expected to increase as we head into the afternoon hours. The HRRR seems to have a good handle on the current activity and supports scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. PoPs were increased slightly across the area and heavy rain was added to the forecast. Temperatures were also tweaked down slightly given the expected cloud cover and precipitation. Otherwise, no other changes are needed at this time. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2015/ AVIATION... /12Z TAFS/ Widespread stratus will produce MVFR/IFR ceilings at the terminals this morning. The ceilings will lift to low end VFR at most of the terminals this afternoon and evening, and then low clouds return late tonight, with IFR ceilings at the terminals. The combination of a tropical airmass and some instability will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms through much of the TAF forecast period. Going with mainly VCSH/VCTS at the terminals, with a few hours of 5SM SHRA. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2015/ SHORT TERM... Good rain chances continue for most of West Central Texas for the next 24 hours. Tropical Storm Bill will move onshore sometime today, likely this morning, near Port Lavaca. The latest forecast track brings this system to near Goldwaite around sunrise Wednesday morning. Meanwhile, a weak disturbance aloft over West Texas will continue to enhance rain chances for West Central Texas today and tonight. Based on model forecasts, the best rain chances will be mainly across our eastern counties; however, tropical systems like Bill have historically not produced heavy rainfall for our eastern counties, if the track is too far east. This is because sinking air aloft usually occurs to the west of these tropical systems. Thus, our confidence regrading the potential for heavy rainfall is not high enough to issue any Flash Flood Watch, at this time. We do believe our eastern counties will receive more rainfall, during the next 24 hours, than our other counties. The question is how much? LONG TERM... The long term forecast includes rain chances through Friday, before drier air moves into Texas and ends rain chance, for the remainder of the long term. Models are in fair good agreement through the end of this week, and they continue a weak disturbance over Texas. The GFS and ECMWF slowly move this weak disturbance aloft away from Texas and toward the northeast later this week. Thus, diminishing rain chances into Friday look reasonable. For Saturday and into the start of next week, high pressure builds over Texas from the west, and a dry pattern will dominate West Central Texas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 68 81 69 88 69 / 50 60 30 30 20 San Angelo 68 86 68 88 69 / 40 50 20 20 20 Junction 69 85 69 85 69 / 50 60 40 40 30 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ Daniels
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1103 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2015 .UPDATE... To increase PoPs... && .DISCUSSION... A very moist and increasingly unstable atmosphere will reside across West Central Texas today. Showers are already beginning to develop across the area, and coverage and intensity is expected to increase as we head into the afternoon hours. The HRRR seems to have a good handle on the current activity and supports scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. PoPs were increased slightly across the area and heavy rain was added to the forecast. Temperatures were also tweaked down slightly given the expected cloud cover and precipitation. Otherwise, no other changes are needed at this time. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2015/ AVIATION... /12Z TAFS/ Widespread stratus will produce MVFR/IFR ceilings at the terminals this morning. The ceilings will lift to low end VFR at most of the terminals this afternoon and evening, and then low clouds return late tonight, with IFR ceilings at the terminals. The combination of a tropical airmass and some instability will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms through much of the TAF forecast period. Going with mainly VCSH/VCTS at the terminals, with a few hours of 5SM SHRA. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2015/ SHORT TERM... Good rain chances continue for most of West Central Texas for the next 24 hours. Tropical Storm Bill will move onshore sometime today, likely this morning, near Port Lavaca. The latest forecast track brings this system to near Goldwaite around sunrise Wednesday morning. Meanwhile, a weak disturbance aloft over West Texas will continue to enhance rain chances for West Central Texas today and tonight. Based on model forecasts, the best rain chances will be mainly across our eastern counties; however, tropical systems like Bill have historically not produced heavy rainfall for our eastern counties, if the track is too far east. This is because sinking air aloft usually occurs to the west of these tropical systems. Thus, our confidence regrading the potential for heavy rainfall is not high enough to issue any Flash Flood Watch, at this time. We do believe our eastern counties will receive more rainfall, during the next 24 hours, than our other counties. The question is how much? LONG TERM... The long term forecast includes rain chances through Friday, before drier air moves into Texas and ends rain chance, for the remainder of the long term. Models are in fair good agreement through the end of this week, and they continue a weak disturbance over Texas. The GFS and ECMWF slowly move this weak disturbance aloft away from Texas and toward the northeast later this week. Thus, diminishing rain chances into Friday look reasonable. For Saturday and into the start of next week, high pressure builds over Texas from the west, and a dry pattern will dominate West Central Texas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 68 81 69 88 69 / 50 60 30 30 20 San Angelo 68 86 68 88 69 / 40 50 20 20 20 Junction 69 85 69 85 69 / 50 60 40 40 30 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ Daniels
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
535 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2015 .DISCUSSION... The latest Aviation Discussion is included below. && .AVIATION... MVFR ceilings are expected to form and possibly affect KCNM, KHOB and KMAF along with MVFR visibility in fog. The other area terminals could also see MVFR conditions, but think these instances will be more brief. The fog should lift by 16/15Z, while MVFR ceilings last until around 17Z, especially at KMAF. KMAF will also be the only terminal where TSRA is included, but this could change if thunderstorm development turns out more widespread than currently expected. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2015/ DISCUSSION...As of 4:00 AM CDT Tuesday...the strong convection near Guadalupe NP has finally died out. Water Vapor imagery and GOES High Density winds are showing a ridge centered in the East Pacific west of Southern CA stretching into Northern Chihuahua and another ridge centered over the Southeastern US. A weakness in the pattern is centered over the Southern Plains with a weak upper low over TX...possibly enhanced by the MCV that was located over Reagan County earlier yesterday. TS Bill in the Gulf of Mexico continues to churn northwest towards the Southern TX coast. The latest NAM12 and HRRR develops convection over Central TX early this morning and move it southwest into the CWA in NE flow aloft. Based on the forecast track TS Bill will have minimal impact on the sensible weather for West TX and SE New Mexico. With fairly stable mid level lapse rates...low CAPE...and very weak Bulk Shear do not expect any severe wx. The main impact from the convection will be the possibility of heavy rain and localized flooding with PW`s near 1.5 inches and the slow movement of the storms. Temps will be relatively "cool" with ample cloud cover. Precip chances will be much less tonight through Wednesday night as the ridge in the Pacific and Northern Chihuahua builds east into Southwest TX. Models drop a vort max south thru West TX on Thursday around the eastern edge of the ridge. This could bring an increasing chance of convection Thursday and Thursday night. From Friday through early next week the ridge in the Eastern Pacific will move ENE...and become centered over the Southern Rockies/Central High Plains in response to a mid/upper trough in the Gulf of Alaska. Since the ridge will be centered north of the CWA it will leave the area in a deep layer easterly flow. Have kept temps near normal...more in line with the European MOS guidance. Felt that the GFS MOS guidance with temps above 100 for Midland was too high for this type of pattern. Even though the models don`t indicate it at this time...this type of pattern is conducive for isolated aftn convection...especially if any easterly waves move across the Gulf of Mexico. Strobin && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ANDREWS TX 84 66 90 68 / 40 20 10 0 BIG SPRING TX 84 69 88 69 / 50 30 20 0 CARLSBAD NM 88 67 94 68 / 20 10 10 0 DRYDEN TX 88 70 93 72 / 50 40 20 10 FORT STOCKTON TX 87 68 93 70 / 40 20 20 0 GUADALUPE PASS TX 83 65 88 67 / 10 10 10 0 HOBBS NM 84 64 90 67 / 20 10 10 10 MARFA TX 81 60 88 61 / 30 10 10 10 MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 85 67 91 68 / 50 20 20 0 ODESSA TX 85 67 90 69 / 50 20 20 0 WINK TX 88 68 96 72 / 30 10 10 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 67/33 Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: http://facebook.com/NWSMidland http://twitter.com/NWSMidland Check us out on the internet at: http://weather.gov/midland
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
421 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2015 .DISCUSSION...As of 4:00 AM CDT Tuesday...the strong convection near Guadalupe NP has finally died out. Water Vapor imagery and GOES High Density winds are showing a ridge centered in the East Pacific west of Southern CA stretching into Northern Chihuahua and another ridge centered over the Southeastern US. A weakness in the pattern is centered over the Southern Plains with a weak upper low over TX...possibly enhanced by the MCV that was located over Reagan County earlier yesterday. TS Bill in the Gulf of Mexico continues to churn northwest towards the Southern TX coast. The latest NAM12 and HRRR develops convection over Central TX early this morning and move it southwest into the CWA in NE flow aloft. Based on the forecast track TS Bill will have minimal impact on the sensible weather for West TX and SE New Mexico. With fairly stable mid level lapse rates...low CAPE...and very weak Bulk Shear do not expect any severe wx. The main impact from the convection will be the possibility of heavy rain and localized flooding with PW`s near 1.5 inches and the slow movement of the storms. Temps will be relatively "cool" with ample cloud cover. Precip chances will be much less tonight through Wednesday night as the ridge in the Pacific and Northern Chihuahua builds east into Southwest TX. Models drop a vort max south thru West TX on Thursday around the eastern edge of the ridge. This could bring an increasing chance of convection Thursday and Thursday night. From Friday through early next week the ridge in the Eastern Pacific will move ENE...and become centered over the Southern Rockies/Central High Plains in response to a mid/upper trough in the Gulf of Alaska. Since the ridge will be centered north of the CWA it will leave the area in a deep layer easterly flow. Have kept temps near normal...more in line with the European MOS guidance. Felt that the GFS MOS guidance with temps above 100 for Midland was too high for this type of pattern. Even though the models don`t indicate it at this time...this type of pattern is conducive for isolated aftn convection...especially if any easterly waves move across the Gulf of Mexico. Strobin && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ANDREWS TX 84 66 90 68 / 40 20 10 0 BIG SPRING TX 84 69 88 69 / 50 30 20 0 CARLSBAD NM 88 67 94 68 / 20 10 10 0 DRYDEN TX 88 70 93 72 / 50 40 20 10 FORT STOCKTON TX 87 68 93 70 / 40 20 20 0 GUADALUPE PASS TX 83 65 88 67 / 10 10 10 0 HOBBS NM 84 64 90 67 / 20 10 10 10 MARFA TX 81 60 88 61 / 30 10 10 10 MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 85 67 91 68 / 50 20 20 0 ODESSA TX 85 67 90 69 / 50 20 20 0 WINK TX 88 68 96 72 / 30 10 10 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 67/33 Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: http://facebook.com/NWSMidland http://twitter.com/NWSMidland Check us out on the internet at: http://weather.gov/midland
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1154 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 .AVIATION... BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER APPEARS WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO MOVING INTO KPVW THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND MINOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTION. BAND MAY SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO IMPACT KCDS AS WELL THOUGH SEEMS LESS CERTAIN. USED HRRR CEILING AND VISIBILITY PRODUCTS TO SOME EXTENT TO PLAN TIMING FOR LOW CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT. BOTH KCDS AND KPVW SEEM MORE LIKELY TO SUFFER FROM AT LEAST LIGHT FOG. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEFLY GOING DOWN HARDER WITH CIGS AND VSBYS EARLY IN THE MORNING BUT VERY HARD TO ASCERTAIN THREAT. STILL APPEARS LAYER WILL LIFT AND BEGIN TO BREAK UP BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. RMCQUEEN && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015/ AVIATION... A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WEST TEXAS WILL MOVE EVER SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST BY LATE TUESDAY. AN IMPULSE PASSING JUST EAST OF KLBB AND SOUTH OF KCDS WAS CAUSING SHOWERS AND THUNDER OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS ABOUT 90 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KLBB. THESE WILL SLOWLY EDGE NORTH THIS EVENING BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KCDS. AN OUTFLOW OR WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING WESTWARD ONTO THE CAPROCK WAS ALSO CAUSING VERY ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS ABOUT 25 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KLBB EARLY THIS EVENING THAT SHOULD WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT KLBB. LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST OVERNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST MVFR LEVEL CEILINGS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. THERE IS ALSO A RISK FOR LOWER DECKS AND EVEN BRIEF FOG BUT OUR SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT ON LOCATION AND TIMING OF SIGNALS SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR BETTER TRENDS AND NOT INDICATE A LOWER CEILING OR VISIBILITY AT THIS TIME. LOW CLOUD DECK SHOULD LIFT AND START TO BREAK UP BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON TUESDAY. RMCQUEEN PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015/ SHORT TERM... LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR SHOWS A VORT MAX SPINNING SOUTHWEST OF SJT WITH INCREASING SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE BIG COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. A FEW STORMS ALSO BEGINNING TO FIRE FURTHER WEST OVER THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND ERN NM OUTSIDE OF THE THICK CLOUD SHIELD. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPIRAL AROUND THE WEST CENTRAL TX DISTURBANCE AS IT LIFTS SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE EVENING. INSTABILITY HAS GROWN IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A CAP DESPITE THICK CLOUDS THAT HAVE REMAINED OVER THE REGION. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS VERY WEAK AND WITH GENTLE LAPSE RATES IN PLACE EXPECT STORM LIFECYCLES TO BE LIMITED. STILL WITH PWAT VALUES PUSHING 1.5 INCHES AND MOIST PROFILES IN PLACE EXPECT SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH SUNRISE TUE AS WEAK ASCENT CONTINUES IN PROXIMITY TO VORTICITY STRUNG OUT ACROSS THE AREA AND CONVERGENCE ALONG ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE LIFTING NORTH. DEEP E/NE FLOW THROUGH THE DAY TUE WILL MAINTAIN A NEARLY SATURATED PROFILE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. FURTHER WEST THOUGH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO EXERT MORE INFLUENCE AS IT BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS OF NM. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE AND REMNANT ASCENT TO THE EAST WILL SET UP A BATTLEGROUND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE SOUTH PLAINS. AS A RESULT HAVE TAPERED POPS MORE HASTILY FROM W-E ON TUE LEAVING CHC POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA. EXPECT PREVAILING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY FOG TO BE SLOW TO GIVE WAY TO SUNSHINE NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER IN THE AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER AND DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP A RATHER SMALL RANGE IN TEMPS FROM W-E FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. LONG TERM... WARM WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM...AT LEAST HERE IN WEST TEXAS. LATE TUES/EARLY WED WILL BE RATHER WET FOR THE ROLLING PLAINS AS A REMNANT SURFACE TROF WILL LINGER TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION. PRECIP CHANCES ON THE CAPROCK WILL BE SOMEWHAT HINDERED AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. MID DAY WED INTO THURS IS QUESTIONABLE AS FAR AS POPS GO FOR THE ROLLING PLAINS AS THEY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF TROPICAL INVEST 91L. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME HINTS PREVIOUSLY THAT WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MAY PUSH FAR ENOUGH WEST TO TRIGGER MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO INDICATE THIS POSSIBILITY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS PRECIP TO THE EAST THANKS TO AN OVERHEAD RIDGE. FOR NOW LOW MENTION POPS WILL BE ADDED ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. ADDITIONAL LOW MENTION POPS HAVE BEEN ADDED TO OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES FOR THURS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGH TERRAIN CONVECTION IN NM PUSHING INTO THE FA WITH THE AID OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL...AS WITH MANY OTHER THINGS...DEPEND ON HOW FAR EAST THE RIDGE EXTENDS. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO REMAIN QUIET THIS COMING WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE DRAWS CLOSER. WHAT IS STILL A COIN TOSS WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION EARLY NEXT WEEK IN REGARDS TO A POSSIBLE FRONT PUSHING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO HAVE SOME CONFIDENCE IN THE FROPA NEXT MON BUT HAS BACK OFF OF THE IDEA BY A HAIR. THE GFS HAS ABANDONED THE IDEA ALL TOGETHER AND QUICKLY BUILDS A 594DM RIDGE OVER THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF HOLD OFF ON THE RIDGE UNTIL NEXT TUES AT THE EARLIEST. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL BE KEPT IN FOR THE TIME BEING UNTIL THE MODELS RESOLVE THEIR ISSUES ON WHAT THEY THINK WILL HAPPEN. UNTIL THEN WE CAN PUT THE PIROGUE BOAT BACK IN STORAGE AND DO SOME OUTDOORS WORK WHILE THERE IS A HIATUS IN RAIN. ALDRICH && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FRIONA 59 80 62 88 / 20 20 10 10 TULIA 61 80 63 87 / 30 20 10 10 PLAINVIEW 62 80 63 86 / 50 20 10 10 LEVELLAND 62 82 64 89 / 30 20 10 10 LUBBOCK 63 81 66 90 / 30 20 10 10 DENVER CITY 62 85 63 90 / 30 20 10 10 BROWNFIELD 63 82 64 91 / 30 20 10 10 CHILDRESS 66 82 69 89 / 40 40 20 30 SPUR 65 82 65 87 / 60 30 20 20 ASPERMONT 67 83 68 90 / 60 40 30 30 && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 99/99/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1034 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW ARE PUMPING IN DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S INTO WESTERN WI AND SOUTHEAST MN WHERE ML CAPES ARE SURPASSING 1200 J/KG. ANTICIPATE THAT STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FIRE AHEAD OF THE LOW AND TRANSLATE NE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WI LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS WEEKEND. FORECAST CONCERNS THEREFORE INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND IMPACTS IN THE SHORT-TERM. TONIGHT...THE LOW PRESSURE OVER MINNESOTA WILL TRAVEL EAST OVER CENTRAL WI INTO NORTHEAST WI BY 12Z THU. THE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW WILL KEEP MOST OF ITS IMPACTS WEST OF THE REGION UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING. THE FOCUS FOR THE EVENING WILL RESIDE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NE FROM THE LOW INTO THE WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY IMPACT AREAS NORTH OF A WAUSAU TO IRON MOUNTAIN LINE THROUGH THE EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...CONCERNED THAT SOME STORMS WILL MAKE A RUN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN BEFORE DIURNAL INSTABILITY IS LOST. IF THIS OCCURS...STORMS MAY STILL CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL GIVEN THE DECENT WIND FIELDS ALOFT. WILL KEEP A MENTION IN THE HWO. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM PROJECT AMPLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL LINGER AHEAD OF THE LOW TO SUSTAIN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. BUT WEAK FORCING SHOULD LEAD TO A DIURNAL COMPONENT THAT WILL KEEP STORM INTENSITY IN CHECK. A MORE HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTH. THURSDAY...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OR STORMS SHOULD EXIT WITH THE LOW EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE BEHIND THE LOW THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN CLOUDS WILL BUILD AHEAD OF A SECONDARY FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE DEVELOPING SPOTTY SHOWERS ALONG THIS FRONT...BUT CANNOT FIND HARDLY ANY CONVERGENCE ALONG IT. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY EXCEPT FOR FAR N-C WISCONSIN. HIGHS RISING TO AROUND 70 NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTH. .LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN US THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTING UP SHOP SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING A FEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA...ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE TIMING THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES. DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME FROST TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WI AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S. THE DRY WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END EITHER VERY LATE FRIDAY OR MORE LIKELY ON SATURDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACH THE AREA. ONGOING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY MAKE A RUN AT THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING...BUT MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THIS ACTIVITY...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A ANOTHER ROUND DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP. IF WE CAN CLEAR OUT FOR A PERIOD...SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES INCREASE WITH COLD FRONT/SHORTWAVE APPROACHING...DECENT SHEAR (0-6KM BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 35-50 KTS)...PROVIDING FOR A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. SPC FOCUSES THE DAY 4 OUTLOOK MAINLY FROM CENTRAL WI SOUTHWESTWARD WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY IS MOST LIKELY TO RESIDE...BUT IF THE SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN AND THE BETTER INSTABILITY (DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60 AND CAPE APPROACHING 2000 J/KG) CAN DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH/EAST THE THREAT AREA COULD BE EXPANDED MORE INTO NE WI. WILL SLOW DOWN THE ONSET OF POPS FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT...KEEPING ONLY CHANCE POPS OVER FAR NORTHERN WI...AND KEEP LIKELY POPS ON SATURDAY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. THE REMNANTS OF BILL WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER PWATS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0 INCHES ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL BRING A HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING THREAT. ANY SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE AREA DURING SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL OUT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE AREA...ACROSS IOWA...ILLINOIS AND INDIANA... THAT WE SHOULD SNEAK OUT A DRY DAY ON SUNDAY. LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND MAYBE SOME STORMS EXIST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS MODELS SHOW WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING IN THE ZONAL/WEST UPPER FLOW. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA THOUGH...CLOSER TO THE HUNG UP BOUNDARY. MODELS DO SHOW THE BOUNDARY STARTING TO APPROACH THE AREA LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. IF THIS OCCURS...MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN...WILL BE POSSIBLE. && .AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE ISSUED AT 1031 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN AVIATION FCST ISSUE THIS EVENING. MODELS OFFERING VARYING IDEAS ON THAT. FIRST ROUND OF PCPN HEADING IN FM THE W HAS PRETTY MUCH FALLEN APART. STILL GETTING SOME INDICATIONS IT MAY REDEVELOP OVER E-C WI...SO WL KEEP HIGHEST POPS /STILL CHC THOUGH/ THERE. ANOTHER SECOND CHC WL COME WITH ANY REDEVELOPMENT NR THE LEAD FRONT...THOUGH NOT MUCH INDICATION OF THAT HAPPENING YET. THE FINAL CHC WL BE WITH SECONDARY FRONT DROPPING SWD TOMORROW AFTN. GIVEN IT/S CROSSING THE AREA ARND PEAK HEATING...PCPN WITH THAT FEATURE MAY BE A BIT UNDERDONE ON THE MODELS. OPTED TO CARRY MENTION OF SHRA TOMORROW AFTN IN ALL 6 TAF SITES. THIS STILL IS NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE FCST. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......BERSCH AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
604 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW ARE PUMPING IN DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S INTO WESTERN WI AND SOUTHEAST MN WHERE ML CAPES ARE SURPASSING 1200 J/KG. ANTICIPATE THAT STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FIRE AHEAD OF THE LOW AND TRANSLATE NE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WI LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS WEEKEND. FORECAST CONCERNS THEREFORE INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND IMPACTS IN THE SHORT-TERM. TONIGHT...THE LOW PRESSURE OVER MINNESOTA WILL TRAVEL EAST OVER CENTRAL WI INTO NORTHEAST WI BY 12Z THU. THE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW WILL KEEP MOST OF ITS IMPACTS WEST OF THE REGION UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING. THE FOCUS FOR THE EVENING WILL RESIDE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NE FROM THE LOW INTO THE WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY IMPACT AREAS NORTH OF A WAUSAU TO IRON MOUNTAIN LINE THROUGH THE EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...CONCERNED THAT SOME STORMS WILL MAKE A RUN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN BEFORE DIURNAL INSTABILITY IS LOST. IF THIS OCCURS...STORMS MAY STILL CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL GIVEN THE DECENT WIND FIELDS ALOFT. WILL KEEP A MENTION IN THE HWO. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM PROJECT AMPLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL LINGER AHEAD OF THE LOW TO SUSTAIN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. BUT WEAK FORCING SHOULD LEAD TO A DIURNAL COMPONENT THAT WILL KEEP STORM INTENSITY IN CHECK. A MORE HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTH. THURSDAY...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OR STORMS SHOULD EXIT WITH THE LOW EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE BEHIND THE LOW THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN CLOUDS WILL BUILD AHEAD OF A SECONDARY FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE DEVELOPING SPOTTY SHOWERS ALONG THIS FRONT...BUT CANNOT FIND HARDLY ANY CONVERGENCE ALONG IT. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY EXCEPT FOR FAR N-C WISCONSIN. HIGHS RISING TO AROUND 70 NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTH. .LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN US THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTING UP SHOP SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING A FEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA...ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE TIMING THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES. DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME FROST TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WI AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S. THE DRY WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END EITHER VERY LATE FRIDAY OR MORE LIKELY ON SATURDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACH THE AREA. ONGOING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY MAKE A RUN AT THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING...BUT MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THIS ACTIVITY...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A ANOTHER ROUND DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP. IF WE CAN CLEAR OUT FOR A PERIOD...SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES INCREASE WITH COLD FRONT/SHORTWAVE APPROACHING...DECENT SHEAR (0-6KM BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 35-50 KTS)...PROVIDING FOR A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. SPC FOCUSES THE DAY 4 OUTLOOK MAINLY FROM CENTRAL WI SOUTHWESTWARD WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY IS MOST LIKELY TO RESIDE...BUT IF THE SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN AND THE BETTER INSTABILITY (DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60 AND CAPE APPROACHING 2000 J/KG) CAN DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH/EAST THE THREAT AREA COULD BE EXPANDED MORE INTO NE WI. WILL SLOW DOWN THE ONSET OF POPS FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT...KEEPING ONLY CHANCE POPS OVER FAR NORTHERN WI...AND KEEP LIKELY POPS ON SATURDAY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. THE REMNANTS OF BILL WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER PWATS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0 INCHES ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL BRING A HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING THREAT. ANY SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE AREA DURING SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL OUT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE AREA...ACROSS IOWA...ILLINOIS AND INDIANA... THAT WE SHOULD SNEAK OUT A DRY DAY ON SUNDAY. LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND MAYBE SOME STORMS EXIST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS MODELS SHOW WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING IN THE ZONAL/WEST UPPER FLOW. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA THOUGH...CLOSER TO THE HUNG UP BOUNDARY. MODELS DO SHOW THE BOUNDARY STARTING TO APPROACH THE AREA LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. IF THIS OCCURS...MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN...WILL BE POSSIBLE. && .AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE ISSUED AT 557 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 TIMING OF PRECIPITATION IS THE MAIN AVIATION FCST ISSUE THIS EVENING. MODELS OFFERED VARYING IDEAS ON THAT. LOOKING AT WX FEATURES...THERE SEEM TO BE 3 OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN ACRS THE FCST AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS. THE FIRST WL BE WITH CONVECTION NOW SHIFTG INTO THE AREA FM WRN WI. INSTABILITY NOT AS GREAT AS TO THE WEST...BUT AT LEAST SOME SHRA LIKELY TO MAKE IT ACRS THE AREA THIS EVENING/TNGT. ACCOUNTED FOR THIS IN THE TAFS. THE SECOND CHC WL BE WITH ANY REDEVELOPMENT NR THE LEAD FRONT. SUPPORT FOR THIS IS NOT AS GREAT...PLUS FROPA WL BE LATE AT NGT. LEFT PCPN WITH THIS FEATURE OUT FOR ALL BUT THE FAR N. THE FINAL CHC WL BE WITH SECONDARY FRONT DROPPING SWD TOMORROW AFTN. GIVEN IT/S CROSSING THE AREA ARND PEAK HEATING...PCPN WITH THAT FEATURE MAY BE A BIT UNDERDONE ON THE MODELS. OPTED TO CARRY MENTION OF SHRA TOMORROW AFTN IN ALL 6 TAF SITES. OVERALL...THOUGH...THIS IS NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE FCST AND IT MAY VERY WELL NEED ADJUSTMENT LATER TNGT. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......BERSCH AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
600 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 CONVECTION HAS BEEN DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL IOWA ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY AND AHEAD OF WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THIS ACTIVITY HAS FORMED IN AN AXIS OF ABOUT 1000 J/KG OF ML CAPE WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40 TO 45 KNOTS. THE 17.18Z RAP SUGGESTS THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND THAT THE CAPE AXIS WILL ESSENTIALLY REMAIN IN PLACE. THE RAP ALSO INDICATES THE BEST SHEAR IS OCCURRING RIGHT NOW AND THIS SHOULD THEN DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON TO 35 KNOTS OR LESS IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 AND 25 KNOTS OR LESS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER. MOST OF THE HI-RES MESO MODELS SHOW A TREND OF CONTINUED EXPANSION OF THE STORMS THROUGH ABOUT 21Z OR 22Z AND THEN SHOW A DIMINISHING TREND AS THE SHEAR DROPS OFF. THE RAP CONTINUES TO SHOW A VERY TALL AND SKINNY CAPE PROFILE IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR KRST SO BELIEVE LOCAL DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT ONE OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME SUB SEVERE HAIL OR WIND GUSTS. THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH HELPING THIS ACTIVITY WAS COMING ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA AND WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. THE RAP ALSO CONTINUES TO SHOW ONLY WEAK FORCING FROM THIS WAVE WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE CONVECTION MORE ON THE SCATTERED SIDE. PLAN TO START THE EARLY EVENING WITH AROUND A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OVER THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY AND THEN QUICKLY TREND THIS DOWN TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE EVENING AS THE CAPE DIMINISHES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OUT OF CANADA THURSDAY AND DRIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE A SHORT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN ZONAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO COME ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THE 17.12Z NAM AND GFS INDICATE THIS WAVE SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME WEAK PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER. THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD INDICATED SO HAVE LIMITED THE RAIN CHANCES TO THE 20 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH THE WEAK PV ADVECTION SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING WEAK TO POSSIBLY SOME MODERATE FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 1000-700 MB LAYER AND THEN WEAK ABOVE THAT UP TO 500 MB. THE ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE ON THE 305K SURFACE AHEAD OF THE WAVE LOOKS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 3 UBAR/S. FOR NOW WILL STAY WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH 50 TO 60 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THIS SOLUTION GIVEN THE LACK PV ADVECTION AND THE NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY POSITIVE TILT TO THE WAVE. AFTER THAT...THE ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS COMING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOME RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES CENTERED ON MONDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 BROKEN LINE OF TSRA TRACKING EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AT EARLY EVENING...FIRED BY INSTABILITY AND A COLD FRONT. RADAR INDICATORS POINT TO THEM BEING HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS...WITH SMALL HAIL IN THE STRONGER ONES. SOME ENHANCED GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE. THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE PAST KRST BY 00Z...AND LIKELY KLSE AROUND 02Z. RAP/HRRR/NAM12 RH FIELDS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS THEN POINT TO AN MVFR DECK OF STRATUS STICKING AROUND/DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...POTENTIALLY STICKING AROUND A FEW HOURS PAST 12Z THU. GOING TO PAINT THE TAFS IN THIS DIRECTION...AND MONITOR TRENDS. CONFIDENCE NOT OVERLY HIGH HERE...BUT ENOUGH INDICATORS THAT FAVOR INCLUDING THE LOWER CIGS. EXPECT A BREAK UP OF THE CIGS - IF THEY DEVELOP - BY MID MORNING THU AS THE AREA GRADUALLY COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM...04 AVIATION...RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
601 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT HAS SETTLEDOVER THE OHIO VALLEY. DIURNAL CU POPPED LATE THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND NE WI...WHILE NORTH-CENTRAL WI HAS ENJOYED MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. LOOKING UPSTREAM...CLOUDS AND RAIN ARE SPREADING EAST OVER THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BLACK HILLS. AS THESE CLOUDS AND RAIN SPREAD EAST...PRECIP TRENDS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN. TONIGHT...RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE UPPER JET COMBINED WITH MID-LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION WILL PUSH CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN AND MOST OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE EVENING. SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARDS THE PRECIP DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES INTO DRIER AND STABLE AIR CLOSER TO THE SURFACE HIGH. SOME OF THIS RAIN WILL TRY TO MAKE A RUN INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE...AND WILL LEAVE A SMALL CHANCE IN THE FORECAST. UNDER INCREASING CLOUDS...LOWS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S. WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AS AN INVERTED TROUGH TIGHTENS OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. GUIDANCE PEGS THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN AND ALSO SNEAKING UP INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND THE WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA. AS A RESULT...HAVE BACKED OFF PRECIP CHANCES EXCEPT FOR VILAS COUNTY WHERE MAINTAINED LIKELY WORDING. THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN US WILL BRING SEVERAL SYSTEMS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN WITHIN 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE/BELOW NORMAL. THE FIRST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY...AS A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. TIME OF DAY COMBINED WITH OVERALL INSTABILITY STAYING LOW (UNDER 500 J/KG) SHOULD KEEP THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DOWN...BUT DECENT 0-6KM SHEAR OF 35-50 KTS ALONG WITH A SMALL RIBBON OF INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT COULD PRODUCE AT LEAST SOME BRIEF ORGANIZED STORM ACTIVITY. SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WITH A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. CHANCE POPS LOOK GOOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED. PWATS OVER AN INCH COULD BRING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. ON THURSDAY...THERE WILL BE LINGERING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND SHORTWAVE CROSS THE GREAT LAKES...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING AS THE FRONT COMPLETES ITS PASSAGE OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION SHOULD KEEP ANY ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON ISOLATED AT BEST. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST...PRODUCING CONVECTION ACROSS MINNESOTA ON FRIDAY...WHICH WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHERN WI LATE IN THE DAY...AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER...STILL HARD TO PIN DOWN THE DETAILS...INCLUDING THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER...AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND CLOUDS (LIMITING INSTABILITY) WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE NEW CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO FIRE. WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS ON SATURDAY WHEN MODELS SEEM TO POINT TO THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA. THE REMNANTS OF BILL WILL ATTEMPT TO REACH WI THIS WEEKEND...BUT THE ZONAL FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THIS MOISTURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THAT SAID...PWATS BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.5 INCHES WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. IF THE BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH OF THE AREA...SATURDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY COULD TURN OUT TO BE MAINLY DRY. WILL LEAN THE FORECAST THAT WAY AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS IS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO...BUT MODELS STILL SHOWING THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS OR STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCES MOVING EASTWARD IN THE ZONAL FLOW. WILL KEEP SOME LOWER POPS IN THIS PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. && .AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE ISSUED AT 601 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN SEASONABLY STG WLY FLOW ALOFT WL CONT TO CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES RGN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. HIGH AND MIDDLE CLDS WITH ONE SUCH FEATURE WL SPREAD ACRS THE AREA THIS EVENING. LEADING AREA OF RN OVER MN WL PROBABLY DISSIPATE AS IT NEARS THE RGN. WL CARRY SPRINKLES AT RHI TO ACCOUNT FOR THE REMNANTS. SOME RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THE PCPN IS EXPECTED WED. THAT COULD AFFECT N-C WI TOMORROW AFTN...BUT WL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z THU FOR THE REST OF THE TAF SITES. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......BERSCH AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT HAS SETTLEDOVER THE OHIO VALLEY. DIURNAL CU POPPED LATE THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND NE WI...WHILE NORTH-CENTRAL WI HAS ENJOYED MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. LOOKING UPSTREAM...CLOUDS AND RAIN ARE SPREADING EAST OVER THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BLACK HILLS. AS THESE CLOUDS AND RAIN SPREAD EAST...PRECIP TRENDS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN. TONIGHT...RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE UPPER JET COMBINED WITH MID-LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION WILL PUSH CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN AND MOST OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE EVENING. SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARDS THE PRECIP DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES INTO DRIER AND STABLE AIR CLOSER TO THE SURFACE HIGH. SOME OF THIS RAIN WILL TRY TO MAKE A RUN INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE...AND WILL LEAVE A SMALL CHANCE IN THE FORECAST. UNDER INCREASING CLOUDS...LOWS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S. WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AS AN INVERTED TROUGH TIGHTENS OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. GUIDANCE PEGS THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN AND ALSO SNEAKING UP INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND THE WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA. AS A RESULT...HAVE BACKED OFF PRECIP CHANCES EXCEPT FOR VILAS COUNTY WHERE MAINTAINED LIKELY WORDING. THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN US WILL BRING SEVERAL SYSTEMS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN WITHIN 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE/BELOW NORMAL. THE FIRST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY...AS A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. TIME OF DAY COMBINED WITH OVERALL INSTABILITY STAYING LOW (UNDER 500 J/KG) SHOULD KEEP THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DOWN...BUT DECENT 0-6KM SHEAR OF 35-50 KTS ALONG WITH A SMALL RIBBON OF INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT COULD PRODUCE AT LEAST SOME BRIEF ORGANIZED STORM ACTIVITY. SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WITH A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. CHANCE POPS LOOK GOOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED. PWATS OVER AN INCH COULD BRING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. ON THURSDAY...THERE WILL BE LINGERING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND SHORTWAVE CROSS THE GREAT LAKES...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING AS THE FRONT COMPLETES ITS PASSAGE OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION SHOULD KEEP ANY ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON ISOLATED AT BEST. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST...PRODUCING CONVECTION ACROSS MINNESOTA ON FRIDAY...WHICH WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHERN WI LATE IN THE DAY...AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER...STILL HARD TO PIN DOWN THE DETAILS...INCLUDING THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER...AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND CLOUDS (LIMITING INSTABILITY) WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE NEW CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO FIRE. WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS ON SATURDAY WHEN MODELS SEEM TO POINT TO THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA. THE REMNANTS OF BILL WILL ATTEMPT TO REACH WI THIS WEEKEND...BUT THE ZONAL FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THIS MOISTURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THAT SAID...PWATS BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.5 INCHES WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. IF THE BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH OF THE AREA...SATURDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY COULD TURN OUT TO BE MAINLY DRY. WILL LEAN THE FORECAST THAT WAY AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS IS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO...BUT MODELS STILL SHOWING THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS OR STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCES MOVING EASTWARD IN THE ZONAL FLOW. WILL KEEP SOME LOWER POPS IN THIS PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. && .AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 SCATTERED 4000 FT CLOUDS WILL PASS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING...WHILE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER FROM THE WEST. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. MODELS TRENDING TOWARDS BRINGING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WI BY MIDDAY WHILE LEAVING THE REST OF THE AREA DRY. SO KEPT PRECIP OUT OF THE TAFS THOUGH IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL AT RHI. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......BERSCH AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1130 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 948 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2015 CONVECTION STRENGTH IS DWINDLING THIS EVENING AS INSTABILITY WANES. ASIDE FROM A TORNADO PRODUCING THUNDERSTORM EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF ROCK RIVER...CONVECTION ON THE WHOLE HAD DIFFICULTY BECOMING SFC BASED IN THE COOLER DAY 1 OF THE POST- FRONTAL AIR MASS. ASIDE FROM SOME HEAVY RAIN...THE ONGOING COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS LARAMIE/PLATTE COUNTIES WAS DOING LITTLE TO BE CONCERNED WITH FROM A SEVERE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE. SO HAVE OPTED TO CANCEL THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. WV IMAGERY DEPICTS WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE NR THE WY/ID STATELINE AT THIS HOUR. THIS FTR WILL PUSH THRU NRN/CENTRAL WYOMING BY SUNRISE AND REACH THE DAKOTAS BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. UPSTREAM RADARS AND SATELLITE PIX SHOW SEVERAL ADDL THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CWFA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. 00Z NAM DATA CONTINUES TO POINT AT LEAST AT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE. SO...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES TO BE JUSTIFIED. INITIAL LOOK AT 00Z DATA SUGGESTS TOMORROW TO BE ACTIVE AS MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2015 A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF OUR SOUTHEAST WY ZONES EXCEPT NIOBRARA COUNTY THROUGH 11 PM. MLCAPE IS UP TO 1000-1500 J/KG ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. BULK SHEAR IS AROUND 40 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS LESS UNSTABLE (CAPE LESS THAN 1000 J/KG) ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS WHERE LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MORE PERSISTENT. CONVECTION HAS BROKEN OUT OVER CARBON/ALBANY COUNTIES WITH A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SVR CELLS. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW THIS CONVECTION EVOLVES THROUGH THE EVENING AS IT MOVES INTO AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THE HRRR DOES INDICATE SOME STRONGER STORMS THROUGH 03Z OVER SOUTHEAST WY BEFORE THE ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE CLUSTERED AND MULTICELLULAR ESPECIALLY OVER CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA COUNTIES. ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW A GOOD AMOUNT OF QPF THROUGH SUNRISE TUESDAY IN THE NORTHERN ZONES AND NORTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST WY. THIS IS WHERE THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE. ALTHOUGH THE STEERING FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY SLOW (20-25 KTS)...WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING SINCE SOME OF THE EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE CELLS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY RAIN. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY LATE TONIGHT. THE DECENT RISK FOR SVR STORMS TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE CONTINUES TO LOOK ON TRACK FOR TUESDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE MUCH BETTER ON TUES OVER THE PLAINS AND ESPECIALLY THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THE SFC TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE WY-NE BORDER DURING THE AFTN AND THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE TRIGGER FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. THE COMBINATION OF BULK SHEAR OF 45-50 KTS AND CAPES NEAR 1500 J/KG WILL PROMOTE A GOOD CHANCE OF STORMS TO BECOME SUPERCELLULAR. THINKING IS LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT AS LLVL SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK AND HODOGRAPHS ARE STRAIGHT. SPC HAS MUCH OF THE PLAINS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR WEATHER ON TUES. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2015 WEDNESDAY...SOUTHEASTERLY LLVL FLOW WILL BE DEVELOP DURING THE AFTN WITH GOOD INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. COULD SEE ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF STRONG TO SVR STORMS GIVEN THAT BULK SHEAR IS 35-40 KTS. THURSDAY...MOSTLY DRY AND QUITE WARM WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT PRODUCING ENOUGH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FRIDAY...FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS OUT WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALOFT MOVING ACROSS...THOUGH WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT...MINIMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SATURDAY...MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES ACROSS AND WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND CORRESPONDING DECREASE IN WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WILL SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. SUNDAY...HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE WITH FLOW TURNING NORTHWEST AND WITH DRIER LOW AND MID LEVELS...WILL SEE A DECREASE IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING AREAL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1126 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2015 WYOMING TAFS...AREAS OF LOCALIZED IFR AND MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN FOG THROUGH 15Z...OTHERWISE VFR WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LOCALIZED MVFR AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS. NEBRASKA TAFS...AREAS OF IFR AND MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THROUGH 15Z...ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LOCALIZED MVFR AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2015 MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 15-20 PERCENT TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON THESE DAYS. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR WYZ101>103. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...CAH SHORT TERM...ZF LONG TERM...CLH/RUBIN AVIATION...RUBIN FIRE WEATHER...ZF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
347 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS... CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT OVER WESTERN NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA TODAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...AS A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM EDT...A VARIETY OF CLOUD TYPES REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH SCT-BKN LOWER STRATUS FROM I90 SOUTHWARD AND A CANOPY OF BKN-OVC HIGH CLOUDS THAT CONTINUE TO THICKEN. SO WE WILL GO WITH A MOCLDY FORECAST THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE HAVE STEADY OFF THE PAST COUPE OF HOURS AS WE WILL KEEP NEARLY STEADY VALUES OVERNIGHT. WE WILL ALSO GO WITH A DRY OVERNIGHT WITH JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER BASED ON CURRENT DATA AND TRENDS. THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...MOISTURE PROFILES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND EMBEDDED WITHIN A FAST WEST-EAST ZONAL FLOW AS CLEARLY SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR IMAGERY...A FEW SUBTLE SHORT WAVES WHICH WE CAN NOT RULE OUT WIDELY SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY. THE LATEST HRRR REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS COINCIDES WITH THESE IDEAS AS WE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE...WE WILL FORECAST TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. COLD FRONT PROGRESSING THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA IS FORECAST TO TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND UPSTATE NY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ASSIST WITH ENHANCING THE LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN RATHER POOR AND DUE TO THE NOCTURNAL TIMING OF FROPA ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWFA...SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS VERY LOW. LATEST COORDINATION FROM SPC ALSO SUGGESTS A LOW END MARGINAL RISK WEST AND NORTHWEST OF ALBANY SO WE WILL MENTION ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH MAINLY SHOWERS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. MOS NUMBERS ARE RATHER SIMILAR AS A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... FRIDAY...AS MODEL TRENDS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE FROPA...WE WILL RETAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF I90 IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH FROPA AS IMPROVING SKY COVERAGE COMMENCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THE TERRAIN MAY HOLD ONTO SOME CLOUD COVERAGE BUT EVENTUALLY THE SUBSIDENCE SEEN IN THE OMEGA FIELDS WITHIN THE NCEP MODEL SUITE WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE. H850 TEMPS COOL BACK INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS BY THE END OF THE DAY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS SUGGEST WE WILL HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO TAP INTO HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT FOR SURFACE WIND GUSTS NEAR 20KTS. A COOL AND PLEASANT EVENING IS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EVOLVING AS THE CANADIAN SFC HIGH MOVES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND. H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +6C TO +8C RANGE FROM THE I90 CORRIDOR AND POINTS NORTH...AND +8C TO +10C TO THE SOUTH. LOWS WILL BE IN THE U40S TO L50S FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION SOUTH...AND 40-45F TO THE NORTH...PERHAPS A FEW ISOLD U30S IN THE SRN DACKS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... GENERALLY ZONAL UPPER PATTERN ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF FLAT UPPER RIDGING IN THE EASTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE THE VERY CHANGEABLE WEATHER FROM DAY TO DAY...THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS PATTERN OF WHAT SEEMS TO BE ALTERNATING ONE OR TWO DRY DAYS THEN ONE OR TWO WET DAYS SHOULD CONTINUE AS WEST MEAN FLOW KEEPS FEEDING UPPER ENERGY AND MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION EVERY DAY OR TWO. APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY SATURDAY NIGHT MAY INTERACT WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM AND PROVIDE GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT...REACHING LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY (AROUND 70 PERCENT)...THEN DECREASING POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. IT WILL BECOME QUITE HUMID DURING THIS PERIOD WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE 60S IN MOST PLACES. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY...BUT WITH LINGERING TROFINESS ALOFT...A SHOWER OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...SO HAVE KEPT SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. BECOMING LESS HUMID MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER AND LOWS 50 TO 60. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL AFFECT OUR REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO HAVE FORECAST NO HIGHER THAN 30 PERCENT POPS DURING THIS PERIOD. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE 70 TO 80. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND BRING PLEASANT WEATHER. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 130 AM...HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES. ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH A LOWER VFR STRATOCU DECK ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. THE CLOUDINESS AND DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER...WHILE THE LOWER CLOUD DECK PERSISTS ACROSS THE SOUTH. AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST...THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT THE TAF SITES LATE THURSDAY AFTN...AND HAVE INDICATED VCSH AT THE TAF SITES STARTING 20Z/21Z...AND A FEW HOURS EARLIER (16Z) AT KPOU. BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z FRIDAY...THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND HAVE FORECAST MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES DUE TO SHOWERS. TSTMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT THE CHANCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. MAINLY CALM CONDITIONS THROUGH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE...THEN SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 15 KTS AT KALB. THESE WIND CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. OUTLOOK... LATE THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA. SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA. SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA. MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... CLOUDS ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST INTO TONIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DECREASE TO 45 TO 65 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 5-10 MPH THIS MORNING...AND BE SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN SHIFT TO THE W TO NW AT 5 TO 15 MPH THURSDAY NIGHT. A NORTHERLY BREEZE FRIDAY WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH. && .HYDROLOGY... RIVER LEVELS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RECEDE INTO THURSDAY...WITH SOME POSSIBLE RISES ON THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM ONE TENTH TO A THIRD AN INCH WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...AS THE MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL ENTITY BILL MAY IMPACT PARTS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BGM NEAR TERM...BGM SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA LONG TERM...GJM AVIATION...GJM FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
338 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 .DISCUSSION... ...SLIGHTLY HIGHER STORM CHANCES INTERIOR TODAY BUT STILL HOT... TODAY-TONIGHT...DEEP EASTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THE MAIN CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO INTERIOR/WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE PENINSULA. ONE THING THAT WILL BE A LITTLE DIFFERENT TODAY IS THAT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS SHOWING MOISTENING ALOFT ADVECTING IN FROM THE ATLANTIC. AS A RESULT...THE GFS INDICATES A LITTLE HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND EXPECT LESS MIXING DOWN OF DRIER AIR DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA WILL PROVIDE LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. WITH A LITTLE HIGHER MOISTURE... CONVECTIVE INITIATION ON THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD BE A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE EAST COAST...THOUGH REMAINING DRY ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS. MOS POPS ARE LESS THAN 15 PERCENT EVERYWHERE TODAY AND RISE TO 20-35 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE MODEL IS EVIDENTLY KEYING ON LATE DAY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WITH CONVECTION LINGERING PAST SUNSET. WILL TREND POPS CLOSER TO THE LOCAL WRF AND HRRR MODELS. STILL EXPECT MOSTLY DRY NEAR/EAST OF I-95 BUT WILL CARRY 20 POPS FOR INLAND COASTAL SECTIONS AND 30 PERCENT FOR THE INTERIOR COUNTIES. THE MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW SOME PUSH BACK OF CONVECTION THIS EVENING...PROBABLY DUE TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PROPAGATION...SINCE STEERING WINDS ARE LIGHT AND EASTERLY. SO WILL HAVE SMALL POPS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF THROUGH LATE EVENING. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS AND HEAT INDICES. NOTED THAT THE PIERSON FAWN SITE REACHED 99 DEGREES YESTERDAY...BUT WITH A LITTLE MORE CONVECTION...HAVE CAPPED MAX TEMPS AT 97 WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH MOS. MAX HEAT INDICES SHOULD TOP OUT 100-103 LIKE YESTERDAY. FRI-SUN...STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SE U.S. WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTH AS MODELS SHOW REMNANTS OF BILL SHIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM SRN MO/NRN AK FRI TO THE NRN MID ATL COAST INTO LATE WEEKEND. THIS RIDGE WILL ALLOW ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION. ISO-SCT CONVECTION MAY BRING SOME RELIEF LATER IN THE AFT MAINLY FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS AS EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND AND COLLIDES WITH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE. HOWEVER HIGHS STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST TO MID 90S INLAND WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 100-105. SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR WILL DIMINISH THROUGH LATE EVENING AND LOOK UNLIKELY TO PUSH BACK TOWARD THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S. MON-WED...WEAK SFC TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES SHIFTS SFC RIDGE AXIS TOWARD THE SRN FL PENINSULA INTO NEXT WEEK BUT LOW LEVEL WINDS LOOK LIGHT ENOUGH FOR SEA BREEZE TO MOVE INLAND EACH AFT WITH BEST AFT RAIN CHANCES REMAINING OVER THE INTERIOR EACH AFT. GFS INDICATING SOME DRIER AIR WORKING IN WHICH COULD LIMIT POPS...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS UP TO 30-40% IN THE FORECAST FOR INLAND LOCATIONS. HEAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO PERSIST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S COAST TO MID 90S INTERIOR. && .AVIATION...COASTAL SITES SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR BRIEF MVFR WITH DAYTIME HEATING CLOUD BASES. THE INTERIOR TERMINALS HAVE A HIGHER CHANCE AT EXPERIENCING A STORM COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AND HAVE MENTIONED VICINITY THUNDER THERE STARTING AROUND 20Z. && .MARINE... TODAY-TONIGHT...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS NEARBY WILL PROVIDE A MOSTLY GENTLE SOUTHERLY BREEZE. THE SEA BREEZE WILL PICK UP TO 12-13 KNOTS AND THEN A SLIGHT NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE IS INDICATED OFFSHORE FROM THE CAPE NORTHWARD TO 12-15 KNOTS. STILL SEAS WILL BE AT OR BELOW 3 FEET. FRI-MON...SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL FL THROUGH THE PERIOD. S/SW WINDS LATE IN THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING WILL BECOME S/SE INTO THE AFT AS EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES INLAND EACH AFT. WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 1-3 FEET. AFT CONVECTION OVER LAND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH THREAT FOR OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS VERY LOW. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 93 75 92 74 / 10 20 20 10 MCO 96 76 95 74 / 30 30 40 20 MLB 91 75 90 74 / 10 10 20 10 VRB 91 75 91 74 / 10 10 10 10 LEE 97 77 95 77 / 30 30 50 30 SFB 96 77 94 76 / 20 30 40 20 ORL 96 77 95 76 / 30 30 40 20 FPR 91 73 91 72 / 10 10 10 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...LASCODY LONG TERM....WEITLICH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
329 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY) ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 08Z/3AM RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. WITH MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL FLOWING NORTHEASTWARD AND A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE NORTHWEST KILX CWA TODAY...THINK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. 06Z NAM INDICATES FRONT WILL REACH A BLOOMINGTON TO RUSHVILLE LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON...ESSENTIALLY ENDING ANY RAIN CHANCES TO THE NORTH. FURTHER SOUTH...HIGHEST POPS APPEAR TO BE CONCENTRATED ON BOTH THE NAM AND HRRR ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF A CHAMPAIGN TO SPRINGFIELD LINE. && .LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 MAIN FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE TRACK OF BILL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF THE KILX CWA. 00Z JUNE 18 MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT...SHOWING A FURTHER SOUTH TRACK AND A MORE COMPACT AREA OF ASSOCIATED PRECIP. MODEL CONSENSUS TAKES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING...TO THE OZARKS BY FRIDAY EVENING...THEN INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA BY SATURDAY. GIVEN THIS PARTICULAR TRACK...THE SOUTHEAST CWA WILL BE FAVORED FOR THE HEAVIEST RAIN FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. BASED ON MODEL TRENDS AND THE PRESENCE OF SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ON THE N/NW SIDE OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. HAVE FOCUSED LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70...WITH CHANCE POPS AS FAR NORTHWEST AS THE ILLINOIS RIVER. FURTHER NORTHWEST...HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST IN THE GALESBURG/LACON AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH UNSEASONABLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES...ANY STORMS THAT OCCUR DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. EXPECTED RAINFALL TOTALS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 2 TO 2.50 RANGE SOUTH OF I- 70...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE LIKELY. DESPITE EXPECTED HEAVY RAINFALL...OPTED NOT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME...MAINLY DUE TO THE FACT THAT THIS AREA MISSED THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL FROM A COUPLE DAYS AGO. THERE ARE ALSO SOME SIGNS THAT THE SYSTEM COULD TRACK EVEN FURTHER SOUTH...SHIFTING THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. ONCE BILL DEPARTS...LINGERING MORNING RAIN ACROSS THE E/SE WILL COME TO AN END BY MIDDAY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BOARD SATURDAY AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BRINGING RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE PICTURE. AFTER THAT...A VERY WARM AND OCCASIONALLY WET WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. AS WAS FIRST SEEN WITH THE GFS LAST NIGHT...LATEST ECMWF NOW ADVERTISES A WEAKER UPPER RIDGE NEXT WEEK...WHICH KEEPS THE PREVAILING BAROCLINIC ZONE IN OR CLOSE TO THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. HAVE INCLUDED LOW CHANCE POPS ACCORDINGLY. HAVE TEMPORARILY PUSHED POPS NORTH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AS RIDGE BECOMES MOST DOMINANT...BEFORE IT BREAKS DOWN AND FRONT SAGS BACK SOUTHWARD BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IN THE LAST FEW HOURS HAS HELPED SUPPRESS THE PRECIP THE LAST HALF OF THE EVENING. HOWEVER, A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND MOISTURE STREAMING TOWARD IL FROM THE REMNANTS OF BILL WILL CAUSE INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS EARLY AS 10Z-11Z IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION OF BILL IN FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS IS FORECAST TO VERY SLOWLY ADVANCE ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND MISSOURI, BEFORE IT PICKS UP SPEED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS IL. HRRR INDICATES A WEAKENING OF THE SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST BEFORE THEY REACH PIA LATE TONIGHT. IT THEN SHOWS A BROAD REGION OF RAIN/STORMS DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE LATER THIS MORNING. THE RAP IS MORE GENEROUS WITH PRECIP DEVELOPMENT AS EARLY AS 07-08Z TONIGHT, AND EXPANDING CHANCES THROUGH EARLY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING CHANCES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE OPPOSITE SOLUTIONS LOWERS CONFIDENCE ON ANY DISTINCT PERIOD OF RAIN/STORMS FOR ANY TERMINAL SITE. WE INCLUDED VCSH FOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING, THEN WENT WITH VCTS FOR THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THE AIRMASS IS PRIMED FOR AFTERNOON INSTABILITY STORMS, AND WITH A FRONT STALLING IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING, CANT RULE OUT ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. WE DRIED OUT THE EARLY EVENING, BUT THERE IS A SIGNAL IN THE MODELS FOR LATE EVENING SHOWERS DEVELOPING WELL AHEAD OF THE REMNANTS OF BILL. WE INCLUDED A VCSH FOR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WE KEPT NEARLY ALL VFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW, WITH MVFR EXPECTED DURING ANY HEAVIER RAINS. WINDS WILL REMAIN SW THROUGH THE MORNING, THEN SHIFT MORE W-SW BY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO 10-14KT. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BARNES LONG TERM...BARNES AVIATION...SHIMON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1155 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 THE BULK OF THE FORCING FOR PRECIP HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST FOR THE TIME BEING. RAP OUTPUT SHOWS GRADUAL INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE HRRR IS MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING AFTER 11Z ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70, AND SPOTTY SHOWERS FROM JACKSONVILLE TO SPRINGFIELD. HAVE REDUCED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING, AND WENT WITH INCREASING POPS TO HIGHER CHANCE FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 08Z/3AM TO 12Z/7AM TONIGHT. A BAND OF SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM ACROSS IOWA AND THE SURGE OF MOISTURE AND SHOWERS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI LENDS SOME CONFIDENCE TO SOME PRECIP DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT IN THE WEST AT LEAST. CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP LOW TEMPS ON THE MILD SIDE, IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S, WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED. UPDATED FORECAST INFO IS ALREADY AVAILABLE. && .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL IL HAS BEEN HARD TO MOVE TODAY AS PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE AFFECTED AIRMASS CHANGES. BROAD BOUNDARY OF AIRMASS DIFFERENCES FROM 60S IN NORTHERN IL AND 70S TO 80S IN SOUTH. AMPLE VERY MOIST AIRMASS OVER REGION HAS KEPT PCPN MOVING OVER AREA THROUGH THE DAY...BUT THE PCPN HAS BEEN RAINFALL PRODUCERS THAT ARE MOVING ENOUGH TO PRODUCE QUICK BURST OF HEAVY RAIN AND THEN MOVE ON. MUCAPES OVER AREA IN THE 1000-2000 RANGE BUT WITH A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SHEAR. MOISTURE CHANNEL DATA CONTINUES TO SHOWS FETCH OF DEEP MOISTURE FROM OK/TX SYSTEM INTO MO AND IL. EXPECT A BRIEF TEMPORARY LULL IN PCPN IN THE LATE EVENING DUE TO WEAK UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH...AND THEN STARTING BY MIDNIGHT...CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN. MOISTURE FETCH WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN AREA OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS PSBL. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH OF IL THURSDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL IL DURING THE DAY...WHILE RICH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UP TO AROUND 2 INCHES STREAM INTO SOUTHEAST IL AHEAD OF THE REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM BILL. STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT...AND POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY IN THE MOISTURE RICH PLUME AHEAD OF BILL REMNANTS COULD RESULT IN SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY WITH A STRONG WIND GUST THREAT AS WELL AS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. THE MITIGATING FACTORS WILL BE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT TENDING TO REDUCE INSTABILITY. SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN OR CENTRAL IL LOOKS TO BE A CONTINUED FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL INTO FRIDAY AS MODELS MOVE BILL REMNANTS TOWARD SOUTHERN IL...GENERALLY SPREADING WIDESPREAD RAIN INTO SOUTHERN IL FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY FRIDAY BEFORE THE MAIN SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST IL. 12Z NAM IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER THAN CONSENSUS OF OTHER MODELS WITH THE MOVEMENT OF BILL...SO THIS OUTLIER SCENARIO IS LESS LIKELY. TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO TRACK THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS...AND THEREFORE THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST FAVORED AREA FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION. FOLLOWING BILL...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL LIKELY BRING A GAP IN PRECIPITATION FOR 12 HOURS OR SO SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE/COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY. TIMING OF THIS DRIER PERIOD REMAINS PROBLEMATIC THIS FAR OUT...SO FORECAST POPS THIS PERIOD CONTINUE TO REFLECT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE CATEGORY. HIGHS SHOULD INCREASE TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IL SATURDAY IN THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEHIND BILL. A LARGE SCALE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. SHOULD BRING A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND. HAVE GONE WITH A DRY TO SLIGHT CHANCE PRECIP FORECAST FOR TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY. HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IN THE LAST FEW HOURS HAS HELPED SUPPRESS THE PRECIP THE LAST HALF OF THE EVENING. HOWEVER, A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND MOISTURE STREAMING TOWARD IL FROM THE REMNANTS OF BILL WILL CAUSE INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS EARLY AS 10Z-11Z IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION OF BILL IN FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS IS FORECAST TO VERY SLOWLY ADVANCE ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND MISSOURI, BEFORE IT PICKS UP SPEED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS IL. HRRR INDICATES A WEAKENING OF THE SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST BEFORE THEY REACH PIA LATE TONIGHT. IT THEN SHOWS A BROAD REGION OF RAIN/STORMS DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE LATER THIS MORNING. THE RAP IS MORE GENEROUS WITH PRECIP DEVELOPMENT AS EARLY AS 07-08Z TONIGHT, AND EXPANDING CHANCES THROUGH EARLY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING CHANCES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE OPPOSITE SOLUTIONS LOWERS CONFIDENCE ON ANY DISTINCT PERIOD OF RAIN/STORMS FOR ANY TERMINAL SITE. WE INCLUDED VCSH FOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING, THEN WENT WITH VCTS FOR THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THE AIRMASS IS PRIMED FOR AFTERNOON INSTABILITY STORMS, AND WITH A FRONT STALLING IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING, CANT RULE OUT ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. WE DRIED OUT THE EARLY EVENING, BUT THERE IS A SIGNAL IN THE MODELS FOR LATE EVENING SHOWERS DEVELOPING WELL AHEAD OF THE REMNANTS OF BILL. WE INCLUDED A VCSH FOR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WE KEPT NEARLY ALL VFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW, WITH MVFR EXPECTED DURING ANY HEAVIER RAINS. WINDS WILL REMAIN SW THROUGH THE MORNING, THEN SHIFT MORE W-SW BY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO 10-14KT. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SHIMON SHORT TERM...GOETSCH LONG TERM...ONTON AVIATION...SHIMON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1145 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR THE IA/MN BORDER TO THE QUAD CITIES AND THEN TO NORTHERN INDIANA. NORTH OF THE FRONT DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE LOWER 60S (IN THE 50S IN WI) BUT TO THE SOUTH DEWS WERE WELL INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE CWA WERE IN THE 70S WHICH HAS BEEN HELD DOWN BY EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS TODAY. A COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING INTO SW MN AND INTO WESTERN IA AND THEN TO NW KS. MIDWEST MOSAIC RADAR LOOPS INDICATE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM CENTRAL MO TO WESTERN IL AND THEN INTO EASTERN IL. ELSEWHERE... A FEW STRONGER STORMS WERE NOTED IN NORTHCENTRAL IOWA AND SE MN WHERE SBCAPES WERE 2500 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WAS STRONG AT 50 KNOTS. ACROSS THE DVN CWA DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER INSTABILITY WAS VERY MINIMAL AND SHEAR IS WEAK AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THIS WAY. PRECIPITABLE WATERS IN THE CWA WERE AROUND 1.5 INCHES WITH THE OVER 2 INCH PWATS FROM TX TO SOUTHERN IL. TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL WAS LOCATED IN THE DALLAS/FT. WORTH METROPLEX EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 FORECAST FOCUS ON CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. TONIGHT...OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE VERY MUCH IN DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTIVE TRENDS. ECMWF IS ESSENTIALLY DRY WHILE THE GFS IS THE WETTEST. THE NAM IGNITES THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN OUR FAR SOUTH WHILE THE HI-RES HRRR MESO MODEL BRINGS WEAKENING THUNDERSTORMS INTO OUR NW CWA THIS EVENING AND LEAVES THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT DRY. I WILL ESSENTIALLY BE TAKING A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH AND LEAVING POPS IN THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE. FORCING/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK ALONG WITH MINIMAL INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE CWA AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL NEED TO MENTION AT LEAST A SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED BUT THERE MAY BE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS ESPECIALLY BEFORE SUNSET. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH. THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY PROBABLY ALONG HIGHWAY 34 AS THE REMNANTS OF BILL TRACKS NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON. OUR NORTH WILL GRADUALLY SEE DRIER AIR WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 50S DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL REMAIN IN THE JUICY AIRMASS AS THE FRONT STALLS. AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY SO I WILL MAINTAIN THE 40-50 POPS. THE BULK OF THE MODELS KEEP THE HEAVIEST RAINS SOUTH OF THE DVN CWA. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL..NOW SHOWN TRACKING WELL TO THE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN MO INTO SOUTHERN IL THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...WILL KEEP MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A QUIET WEATHER REGIME FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. MORE ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS LATE SATURDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS A FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BECOMES STALLED OUT. THIS WILL PROVIDE NEARLY DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THURSDAY NIGHT...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER ALBERTA IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER SHOT OF DRY EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WELL INTO EASTERN IA THROUGH MIDDAY FRI. THE ONLY POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE REMNANT SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT WASHES OUT FROM NORTHERN MO INTO CENTRAL IL OVERNIGHT AND HAVE LOW POPS IN PLACE. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIMITED TO EARLY EVENING...ANTICIPATING THE VERY LOW MODEL MUCAPES AND STABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE OVERNIGHT. SOMEWHAT LIKE THIS MORNING...THE DRY AIR WITH DEWPOINTS LOWERING INTO THE 50S OVER IL...WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO COOL INTO THE MID 50S NE TO LOWER 60S SW. WITH AT LEAST HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER LIKELY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 FRIDAY WITH SURFACE WINDS BACKING TO THE SOUTH BY EVENING AS THE HIGH RETREATS EASTWARD. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SOUTHERLY WINDS EDGE DEWPOINTS BACK UPWARDS AND THE REMNANT WEAK CONVERGENT BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. SATURDAY...BILL DISSIPATES TO THE SE AS AN INCOMING FRONT AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH BECOME THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES. STRONG THETAE ADVECTION FEEDING INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AN MCS THAT IS LIKELY TO PUSH THROUGH WITH THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY POPS ARE MAINTAINED. HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS...WITH PW VALUES POSSIBLE NEAR 2 INCHES...WILL BRING THE FIRST THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN BACK INTO THE FORECAST. STRONG PREFRONTAL WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL SEND HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S WHILE DEWPOINTS LIKELY RETURN TO THE LOWER 70S. THIS WILL LEAD TO UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS WITH SEVERE STORMS AS OUTLINED IN THE SPC DAY 4 SEVERE OUTLOOK 15 PERCENT AREA CENTERED OVER EASTERN IA. SUNDAY THROUGH WED...THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW HAVE BETTER AGREEMENT DEPICTING THE WEST TO EAST FRONT...SUPPRESSED TO NORTHERN MO SUNDAY NIGHT...LIFTING BACK NORTH AND BECOMING STALLED OUT ROUGHLY ALONG HIGHWAY 30 BY TUE NIGHT. THE MODELS THEN DEPART WITH THE ECMWF LIFTING THE BOUNDARY NORTH INTO MN AND SOUTHERN WI WHILE THE GFS IS FURTHER SOUTH. EITHER WAY...WITH AN ACTIVE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND UPPER JET TRACK JUST TO THE NORTH...THE SETUP IS PRIME FOR AN ACTIVE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES THROUGHOUT. FOR NOW...HAVE HIGHER POPS IN THE NORTH CLOSER TO THE MOST LIKELY FRONTAL POSITION. WITH AN OPEN FEED OF GULF MOISTURE... SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE A DAILY THREAT. THIS WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF FLOODING ON AREA RIVERS THAT WILL LIKELY HAVE RETURNED TO THEIR BANKS BY THIS TIME. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 A FRONTAL SYSTEM SAGGING TOWARD THE AREA WILL CONTINUE THE CHC FOR ISOLATED TO WDLY SCTRD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACRS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING...BUT MAY BE CLEAR OF THE CID AND DBQ TERMINALS ALREADY BY EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. VARYING AMOUNTS OF VFR CLOUD DECKS TO MVFR INTO THU MORNING AS WELL...WITH A CHC OF BRL DROPPING TO LOW MVFR OR EVEN IFR FOR A PERIOD THU MORNING IN THE VCNTY OF THE SLOWING BOUNDARY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HANGING UP ALONG AND SOUTH OF BRL MAY ALSO KEEP THE CHC OF ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE VCNTY OF THAT TAF SITE THROUGH MID THU MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECT VEERING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND VFR CIGS/VSBYS BEHIND THE FRONT THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ..12.. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HAASE SHORT TERM...HAASE LONG TERM...SHEETS AVIATION...12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
119 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 119 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE A HOT AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 70 AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S. THIS MOISTURE AVAILABLE HAS MADE FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY WHERE PRECIP HAS FALLEN EARLIER IN THE DAY. IN ADDITION...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN POPPING UP ALONG THE TN BORDER. WHILE THE HRRR DEPICTS THIS COMING TO AN END...IN THIS AIRMASS...WILL LEAVE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HEADING INTO THE MORNING HOURS. A NEW ZFP HAS BEEN SENT OUT WITH THIS UPDATE. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1020 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 SHOWERS HAVE COMPLETELY DISSIPATED SO HAVE BUMPED POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALSO MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE T/TD GRIDS TO BETTER ALIGN THEM WITH MOST RECENT OBS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS SO HAVE KEPT THE POP FORECAST AS IS FOR THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND DEW POINTS TO BETTER ALIGN THEM WITH RECENT OBS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST SOUTHWEST TO PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RIDGING GENERALLY STAYING IN CONTROL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER WEAK WAVES WILL AID IN DEVELOPING MAINLY AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...HOWEVER THE OCCASIONAL EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENT CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. AFTERNOON STORMS HAVE FIRED UP ALONG AND NEAR A OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES...CAPES AOA 2000 J/KG...PWATS AOA 1.5...AND DCAPES AOA 1000 J/KG WOULD THINK PRIMARY RISKS WITH THESE STORMS WOULD BE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. GIVEN HIGH FREEZING LEVELS AND WARM TEMPS SEVERE HAIL WOULD ONLY BE A SECONDARY POTENTIAL THREAT WITH STRONGER STORMS. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WANE AS WE MOVE INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WEAK FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FOG ONCE AGAIN IN THE MORNING WITH BEST COVERAGE IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL TODAY AND VALLEY LOCATIONS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS WE MOVE TOWARD TO 15Z TIME FRAME. ANOTHER WARM AND MOIST DAY IS ON TAP WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO EVEN LOWER 70S ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THIS AND CONTINUED UNSTABLE AIR WITH CAPES AOA 2000 J/KG AND STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD EXPECTED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN. WE REMAIN UNDER A SLIGHT TO MARGINAL RISK FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER WITH MAIN RISK ONCE AGAIN BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN...GIVEN PWATS AOA 1.5 AND DCAPES AOA 1000 J/KG. GIVEN WEAK WAVES WILL KEEP CHANCES OF STORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. ONCE AGAIN AS WE MOVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY IN THE VALLEYS AND LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE PRECIP. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED. THERE ARE SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE REMNANTS OF TS BILL...OUR MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FRI-SAT...WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE SLOWER SOLUTION. WE APPEAR TO BE HEADING INTO AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED. SOUTHEAST RIDGE CONTINUES TO RETREAT SLIGHTLY BACK OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC IN RESPONSE TO THE REMNANTS OF TS BILL MOVING UP INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. HEADING INTO FRIDAY...THE REMNANTS OF BILL SETS UP JUST TO OUR WEST OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY BEFORE MOVING EAST UP THE OH VALLEY AND WITH IT...A SUBSTANTIAL SHOT OF MOISTURE. WHAT IS LEFT OF BILL BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE UPPER PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY. AS EXPECTED PWATS WILL BE HIGH...APPROACHING THE 1.75 TO 2.00 INCH RANGE. IN ADDITION FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE HIGH...LCLS ARE FAIRLY LOW AND CAPES ARE RELATIVELY LOW...ALL EXPECTED CONSIDERING THE TROPICAL NATURE OF THE AIR MASS AND SETTING UP CONDITIONS FOR WARM RAIN PROCESSES. MEAN WINDS ARE DECENT HOWEVER...SO THE GREATEST HYDRO THREAT COULD BE MORE FROM TRAINING CELLS AND ANY ACTIVITY THAT SETS UP OVER RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES...E.G. CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS. WILL ALSO HAVE TO CONSIDER THE EXACT TRACK OF BILL AS MODELS HONE IN ON THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION. IF WE SEE A SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW REGIME DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...THIS MAY EAT AWAY AT SOME POTENTIAL QPF TOTALS WITH THIS SYSTEM. THEREAFTER A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS DOWN TEMPORARILY TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS BOUNDARY APPEARS TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH BY TUESDAY AFTER STALLING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COMMONWEALTH FOR SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA AT THE END OF THE FORECAST WINDOW FOR WARMER...DRIER WEATHER. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 119 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 MOST TAF SITES TONIGHT WILL BE DROPPING TO MVFR AND BELOW TOWARDS DAWN DUE TO THE WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS AND CALM WINDS ACROSS THE AREA AND ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY AREAS. A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY POP UP TOWARDS DAWN BUT EXPECTING A DRY REST OF THE NIGHT. HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON...DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND HAVE KEPT VCTS AT ALL THE TAF SITES. THIS DIURNAL TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ENDING SHORTLY AFTER 00Z AND THEN BEGIN TOMORROW NIGHT AGAIN WITH THE FOG DEVELOPMENT. HAVE PUT THIS TREND INTO ALL THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE CONTINUED CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER SHORT TERM...DJ LONG TERM...RAY AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
404 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 433 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN CONUS/SRN CANADA. UPSTREAM...ONE SHORTWAVE IS EVIDENT OVER NRN MN WHILE A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROF IS SWINGING SE THRU SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. WAVE OVER NRN MN HAS BEEN AIDING A PERSISTENT AREA OF SHRA THAT HAS MOVED FROM NW WI EARLY THIS MORNING INTO WRN UPPER MI THIS AFTN. THE CLOUD COVER OVER WRN UPPER MI HAS KEPT INSTABILITY FROM DEVELOPING...SO THERE HAS BEEN NO THUNDER YET. VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER TO THE S AND SW... AND LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES MLCAPES HAVE INCREASED TO A FEW HUNDRED J/KG INTO WCNTRL WI WITH THE 100J/KG ISOPLETH NOW NEAR THE WI/MI BORDER. THAT INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH A WEAK SFC LOW PRES OVER SRN MN AND TROF EXTENDING NE TOWARD KIWD HAS BECOME THE FOCUS FOR DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HRS. WELL OFF TO THE NW...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN SHORTWAVE TROF EXTENDS FROM HUDSON BAY TO SE SASKATCHEWAN. SFC OBS/CANADIAN RADARS SHOW SOME -SHRA/SPRINKLES WITHIN THE BAND OF CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING FRONT. MORE RECENTLY...CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO FIRE ALONG THE FRONT. FIRST WAVE OVER NRN MN WILL SHIFT E ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES THIS EVENING. MODELS HINT THAT ANOTHER SUBTLE WAVE WILL FOLLOW LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE SWINGING SE THRU NRN ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT THRU EARLY THU AFTN. HAVE LARGELY UTILIZED RADAR TRENDS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HRS TO PUSH ONGOING SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH FIRST SHORTWAVE ENE INTO NCNTRL UPPER MI BEFORE DIMINISHING. NAM AND THE HIGH RES NAM WINDOW HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS PCPN...SO NAM OUTPUT WAS INCORPORATED AS WELL. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE CONVECTION DEVELOPING TO THE SW NEAR SRN MN WEAK SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROF THAT EXTENDS TOWARD KIWD. SINCE THIS CONVECTION IS LARGELY DRIVEN BY DAYTIME INSTABILITY...THIS PCPN SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH AS IT LIFTS TOWARD THE FCST AREA TONIGHT. PROBABLY WON`T COMPLETELY DISSIPATE GIVEN SOME CONTINUED FORCING THRU THE NIGHT. SO...FCST WILL SHOW SCT/NMRS SHRA INTO WRN UPPER MI DIMINISHING TO SCT WITH TIME EASTWARD. SINCE CLOUD COVER WILL DOMINATE HEADING TO SUNSET...INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED HERE...BUT IT STILL WARRANTS A MENTION OF THUNDER WITH BEST CHC FROM KIWD TOWARD KIMT. POTENTIAL FOR SCT SHOWERS/PERHAPS A TSTM WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ERN FCST AREA THU MORNING ALONG JUST AHEAD OF THE FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING THRU THE AREA. AS IS THE CASE TODAY IN CANADA...THERE MAY ALSO BE ISOLD -SHRA FOR A SHORT TIME FOLLOWING FROPA AS WELL. OTHERWISE...SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THU AFTN WILL BRING DRIER AIR/CLEARING SKIES. IT WILL BE CHILLY ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR THU AFTN WITH GRADIENT WIND OFF THE LAKE. LAKESIDE LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF LONG FETCHES ACROSS THE LAKE WILL LIKELY SEE AFTN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S/LWR 50S. AT THE HIGH END...MAX TEMPS OVER FAR SCNTRL UPPER MI SHOULD REACH THE MID 70S. IT WILL ALSO BE A BREEZY DAY BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E...DUE TO DECENT PRES RISES/CAA AND 20-30KT WINDS AT 925MB. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 403 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 MEDIUM/EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A PERSISTENT ZONAL FLOW WL PREVAIL OVER THE NRN CONUS TO THE N OF A SUBTROPICAL UPR RDG OVER THE SRN STATES. MAIN FCST CHALLENGES WL BE TIMING PCPN EVENTS ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCES STREAMING W-E IN THIS FAST FLOW. SINCE THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR WL REMAIN TO THE S CLOSER TO THE RDG...EXPECT TEMPS TO AVERAGE AOB NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD. FRI...SFC HI PRES UNDER APRCHG SHRTWV RDG IS FCST TO DRIFT FM OVER UPR MI INTO LK HURON BY 00Z SAT. RETURN SW FLOW BTWN THE DEPARTING HI AND LO PRES MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS IS FCST TO TAP MORE MSTR/HIER H85 THETA E AND LIFT PWAT BACK OVER AN INCH ACRS THE WRN CWA BY 00Z SAT. SO EXPECT INCRSG CLDS W-E DESPITE LINGERING NEAR SFC DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING HI. SOME OF THE MODELS GENERATE SOME PCPN LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE W...WHERE H85 THETA E ADVECTION IS FCST TO BE RATHER SHARP. BUT ABSENCE OF OTHER FORCING WITH LINGERING LLVL ACYC FLOW/LIMITED DEPTH OF GREATER MSTR RETURN AHEAD OF APRCHG RDG AXIS SUGGESTS DRY WX WL PREVAIL EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER WRN LK SUP. H85 TEMPS REBOUNDING TO 12C OVER THE W AT 00Z SAT WL SUPPORT HI TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE 70S IN THAT AREA. BUT MAX TEMPS SHOULD HOLD IN THE 60S FARTHER TO THE E AND WL BE COOLEST NEAR THE CHILLY WATERS OF LK MI DESPITE MORE SUNSHINE THERE. FRI NGT/SAT...ALTHOUGH THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THE PERSISTENT SW FLOW BTWN HI PRES SHIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE APRCHG LO PRES TROF WL ADVECT HIER PWAT UP TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCH INTO THE UPR LKS... THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE IN RATHER POOR AGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH/ TRACK OF EXPLICIT SHRTWVS EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL FLOW AND EVEN IN THE H85 THETA E FIELD THESE DISTURBANCES WL BE ABLE TO TAP. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THERE ARE ALSO SGNFT DIFFERENCES IN THE QPF AS WELL. UNDER THESE CIRCUMSTANCES...OPTED TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF PCPN ON FRI NGT PER MODEL TRENDS HOLDING THE SHARPER DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC TO THE W. BEST CHC FOR THE HIER POPS LOOKS TO BE ON SAT AFTN...WHEN THE GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING AXIS OF SHARPER DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/MORE FOCUSED SHRTWV CROSSING UPR MI IN THE PRESENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING. ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE CLD COVER WL LIMIT THE OVERALL DESTABILIZATION...H7-5 LAPSE RATES FCST AS HI AS 6.8C/KM IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG/SLOWLY VEERING SFC-H5 WINDS THAT MIGHT BUMP UP SFC-6KM SHEAR AS HI AS 50 KTS COULD CAUSE A FEW STRONGER STORMS. NEW SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK SHOWS MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR TS PASSING THRU WI AND CLIPPING MENOMINEE COUNTY. DESPITE SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE DETAILS...OPTED TO MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS DURING THIS TIME. EVEN IF LLVL DRY AIR IS MORE PERSISTENT ON FRI NGT...INCRSG SW WINDS/MORE CLD COVER WL RESULT IN MUCH HIER MIN TEMPS THAN TNGT. SAT NGT/SUN...EXPECT LINGERING POPS OVER MAINLY THE SE CWA ON SAT EVNG TO DIMINISH WITH ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR/LOWER H85 THETA E AND DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC IN THE WAKE OF EXITING MORE ORGANIZED SHRTWV AND APRCH OF WEAK SFC HI PRES RDG. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER ANY TRAILING SHRTWVS EMBEDDED IN THE WNW FLOW ALOFT WL HAVE AN IMPACT ON SUN AND PERHAPS GENERATE SOME LK BREEZE CNVGC SHOWERS WITH DAYTIME HEATING IN LGT WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK HI PRES BLDG INTO THE UPR LKS. BUT WL GO NO HIER THAN SCHC POPS GIVEN THE GENERAL DRYING/LLVL ACYC FLOW. EXTENDED...UPR MI WL REMAIN UNDER WNW FLOW ALOFT TO THE N OF SUBTROPICAL HI PRES RDG CENTERED OVER THE SRN ROCKIES/PLAINS. AS IS TYPICAL FOR WARM SEASON ZONAL FLOWS...THERE IS POOR AGREEMENT AMONG THE LONGER RANGE MODELS ON THE TIMING/INTENSITY/TRACK OF SHRTWVS EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW THAT MIGHT IMPACT THE CWA AS EARLY AS SUN NGT/MON. SO DID NOT STRAY FM CONSENSUS MODEL FCST POPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. BUT SINCE THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS THE SHARPER BAROCLINIC ZN WL STAY FAIRLY FAR TO THE S OF UPR MI...SUSPECT ANY PCPN EVENTS WL BE GENERALLY MODEST. IF THE BNDRY IF FAR ENUF TO THE S...A HI PRES RDG MAY BRING MAINLY DRY WX TO THE CWA. WITH H85 TEMPS FCST WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 12C...EXPECT TEMPS TO AVERAGE AOB NORMAL. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1201 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU MORNING AT KIWD. KCMX WILL HAVE AN UPSLOPE WIND DIRECTION OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHICH WILL CAUSE LIFR CONDITIONS TO FORM LATE TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING. AT KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THRU THE AREA THU MORNING...BRINGING A SHIFT TO NW TO N WINDS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT KCMX AND ESPECIALLY AT KSAW. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO IWD AND CMX LATE THU MORNING. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 403 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EACH ONE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS. BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY...NW WINDS MAY GUST TO 20-25KT FOR A TIME OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT/FRI MORNING AS HIGH PRES PASSES OVER THE AREA. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES...SE TO S WINDS WILL RAMP UP FRI AFTN THRU SAT MORNING. WINDS MAY GUST TO 15-25KT FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING OVER CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SAT AFTN. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP OVER THE LAKE. SINCE THE HIGH PRES FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL BE WEAK...WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...UNDER 20KT FOR LATE SAT THRU SUN. THE GRADUAL ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH WILL DISSIPATE ANY LINGERING FOG ON SUN. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL LINGER INTO MON UNDER A WEAK PRES GRADIENT. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ROLFSON LONG TERM...KC AVIATION...07 MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
311 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 .NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 SURFACE RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED EAST OF MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...AS A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER ONTARIO AND MINNESOTA BEGINS TO MAKE A MOVE TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION. ONLY PRECIP TO SPEAK OF ATTM REMAINS UPSTREAM OF OUR CWA OVER UPPER MICHIGAN PER KMQT BASE REF IMAGES...DEVELOPING WITHIN AN AREA OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LACK OF INSTABILITY HAS PRECLUDED ANY THUNDER WITHIN THIS BKN LINE OF SHOWERS. PRIMARY FORECASTS CONCERN FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT ARE POPS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER AS THIS FRONT MOVES THRU OUR CWA. BOTH THE NAM AND THE RAP DEVELOP A WEAK WAVE OVER WISCONSIN THIS MORNING ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...PULLING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS A WEAK INSTABILITY AXIS PUSHES NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN TODAY. MUCAPES INCREASE TO AROUND 750 TO 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SE SECTIONS OF OUR CWA...MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM APN TO HTL. THIS IS WHERE OUR GREATEST POPS AND BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL RESIDE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THANKS TO FROPA DURING MAX DIURNAL HEATING/INSTABILITY. ALSO...SOME DESCENT SPEED SHEAR WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THIS AREA BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...FURTHER SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER DEVELOPMENT. LATEST SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS OUR SE CWA FOR A MARGINAL CHANCE OF SVR STORMS...WHICH IS REASONABLE GIVEN THE ABOVE SCENARIO. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND EXTENDED POPS INTO THE EVENING HOURS BASED ON LATEST FROPA PROJECTIONS. HAVE ALSO INCREASED CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR OUR SE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW LEVEL CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL LEND TO A LARGER SPREAD OF TEMPS TODAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S IN ERN UPR MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 70S IN OUR FAR SE CWA. && .SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE. PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: FAST MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME SHOWING NO SIGNS OF SLOWING DOWN ANYTIME IN THE NEAR FUTURE...WITH NORTHERN MICHIGAN SQUARELY CENTERED BETWEEN BROAD SOUTHERN RIDGING AND DEEP TROUGHING ROTATING AROUND THE CANADIAN ARCTIC. FAST MOVING...HARD TO TIME...WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE OVERHEAD...ALTHOUGH STILL APPEARS DISCONNECT WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN THEM AND MUCH DEEPER INSTABILITY/MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. WHILE THIS MAY PREVENT A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL FOR OUR NECK OF THE WOODS...PASSING WAVES WORKING ON A MODESTLY MOST ENVIRONMENT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES AS WE HEAD INTO THE BEGINNING OF THIS WEEKEND. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: ADDRESSING SATURDAY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. DETAILS: WORK WEEK ENDS ON A QUIET NOTE AS HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER...DESPITE SLOWLY PASSING OFF TO THE EAST. ALL STRONG WAA WILL REMAIN CENTERED WELL TO OUR WEST...WITH PERHAPS JUST SOME HINTS OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN VIA SLOWLY INCREASING CIRRUS. VERY COOL EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND NICELY TO THE SUNSHINE...BUT SHOULD STILL END UP A LEAST A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT ALL DEEPER MOISTURE AND SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL BE REMOVED WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST (THE LATTER TIED TO REMNANTS OF WHAT WAS ONCE TROPICAL STORM BILL). SLOWER IS DEFINITELY THE TREND WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT WAVE AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SATURDAY...LIKELY A RESULT OF THE PROXIMITY OF "BILL" PASSING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. WHAT MID LEVEL SUPPORT DOES ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY WILL BE IN WEAKENING MODE...ALTHOUGH NICE SURGE OF THETA-E ADVECTION AND SOME RER UPPER JET SUPPORT MAY COMPENSATE SOME. MAIN CHANCES FOR SHOWER/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL NOW LOOKS TO ARRIVE THE SECOND HALF OF SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING WHEN ABOVE FORCING INTERACTS WITH FAVORED DIURNAL INSTABILITY TRENDS. HOWEVER...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME MORNING ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER ALONG SURGE OF STRONGER MOISTURE ADVECTION TIED TO PASSING LOW LEVEL JET. MUCH LIKE THE PAST SEVERAL SIMILAR EVENTS...ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD REMAIN OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH IN VICINITY OF MUCH BETTER INSTABILITY. && .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE EXTENDED RANGE...ESPECIALLY WITH REGARDS TO ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES. JUST REALLY IMPOSSIBLE TO GET A GOOD FEEL ON SHOWER POTENTIAL SUNDAY INTO THE START OF NEXT WORK WEEK...WITH YET TO BE SEEN FAST MOVING WAVES IN OVERHEAD AGGRESSIVE FLOW AT LEAST OFFERING SOME SHOWER POTENTIAL AT TIMES. PER THE USUAL IN SUCH A PATTERN...THIS FORECAST WILL APPEAR MUCH WETTER THAN WHAT WILL LIKELY ACTUALLY OCCUR...SIMPLY AN UNFORTUNATE PRODUCT OF TIMING UNCERTAINTY. NOW...AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED...LATEST HIGHER RES GUIDANCE PROGS HAVE INCREASINGLY ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR BUILDING CENTRAL PLAINS HEAT DOME/RIDGING HEADING INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ALL-THE-WHILE TROUGHING RESIDES OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS. ABOVE IS A PRIME PATTERN FOR PERIODIC RIDGE RIDING MCS`S (SO CALLED RING OF FIRE) TO PIVOT SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. SIMPLY TOO EARLY TO SAY WITH ANY CONFIDENCE WHERE THE BEST CORRIDOR WILL ALIGN ITSELF. WILL SAY IF CURRENT TRENDS HOLD...MOST IMPRESSIVE CORRIDOR OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH...PLACING THE MOST ACTIVE TEMP/INSTABILITY GRADIENT JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST. ONLY TIME WILL TELL...OF COURSE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR FOR ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF SITES THRU THURSDAY NIGHT DESPITE INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THRU THE REGION. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ACROSS NE LWR MICHIGAN (APN) THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS FROPA OCCURS DURING MAX HEATING/DIURNAL INSTABILITY. LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME N/NW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT DURING THE DAY...AND WILL AGAIN BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 WINDS AND WAVES WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AND STRENGTHEN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...BUT AT THIS POINT...BOTH ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND THUNDER ACROSS NE LWR MICHIGAN AND THUS THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH DRY WEATHER AND DIMINISHING WINDS/WAVES EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...NONE. LM...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...MLR SHORT TERM...MSB LONG TERM...MSB AVIATION...MLR MARINE...MLR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
350 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 THE SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE THE CHANCE AND COVERAGE OF POSSIBLE CONVECTION ALONG SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPPING OVER THE AREA TODAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FAST WEST FLOW ALOFT. THE NORTHERN EXTENSION DEVELOPED SOME SHOWERS/THUNDER OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTAS AND IS NOW WEAKENING. THE OTHER A DECENT SIZED MCS TRAVELING ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND DROPPING INTO NEBRASKA. A LOT OF CIRRUS DEBRIS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. THE NORTHERN SYSTEM IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. VARIOUS MODELS SUGGEST INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND WITH LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT...MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION AS IT DROPS SOUTH DURING THE MAX HEATING OF THE DAY. VARIOUS HIRES MODELS AND THE HRRR IS NOW TRYING TO DEVELOP ISOLATED CONVECTION WITH THE BOUNDARY. IT APPEARS AS THE WAVE MOVES FARTHER EAST THE UPPER JET STREAK TRANSLATES FARTHER EAST...THE BETTER FORCING FROM IT IS GENERATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN CWA. MAIN QUESTION WAS HOW FAR WEST WITH THE SMALL POP TO GO. THE NAM AND HIRES NMM WERE THE STRONGEST WITH DEVELOPMENT/INSTABILITY...BUT THE GFS STILL MANAGED TO DROP SOME QPF INTO WESTERN WI. WILL HOLD SMALL POP TO THE EAST METRO INTO WESTERN WI FOR NOW. SHOULD SEE DIURNAL NATURE TO ANY DEVELOPMENT AND SHOULD DIE OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING. CLEARING WITH MORE CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM MORE DAKOTAS ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT. KEPT IT DRY FOR NOW...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH DAKOTAS SYSTEM FOR ANY VARIABLE SHIFTING OF COMPLEX OVERNIGHT. IT COULD AFFECT THE FAR WEST BEFORE DAYBREAK. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 A ZONAL FLOW REGIME PERSISTS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES FOSTERING MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SAID PATTERN WILL ALSO BE CONDUCIVE TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPATURES WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. AT DAYBREAK FRIDAY...EXPECT ELEVATED CONVECTION TO BE ONGOING OVER THE DAKOTAS...GENERATED BY ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A WARM FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE DAY AS THE FIRST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVES ARRIVES...BUT THE BULK LOOKS TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS A CAP BUILDS IN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WILL LIKELY SEE A BREAK IN STORMS UNTIL WE CAN TAP INTO THE BUILDING INSTABILITY. THE AFTERNOON ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO THE WEST OVER THE DAKOTAS...AND THEN CONGEAL INTO A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THIS HAPPENS...THERE LOOKS TO BE A POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR FORECAST. THIS THREAT APPEARS TO LIE BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z SATURDAY...WITH RESIDUAL ACTIVITY IN WI SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING A LULL IN THE STORMS...BUT THEN MORE WEAK EMBEDDED ENERGY ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THESE TYPES OF WAVES IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW IS OF COURSE LOW...SO HAVE HELD ON TO 20-30 POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRING SLIGHTLY MORE TO FOCUS ON...AS A BAROCLINIC ZONE LIFTS TOWARD THE AREA. HOWEVER...18.00Z GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS SHOW VASTLY DIFFERENT TIMING/PLACEMENT SCENARIOS. HAVE THEREFORE INCLUDED 30-40 POPS AT THIS POINT UNTIL DIFFERENCES RESOLVE SOMEWHAT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1103 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER WRN WI INTO EXTREME ERN MN... STILL E OF KMSP BUT MAINLY AFFECTING KRNH AND POSSIBLY REACH KEAU. UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LOW STRATUS MOVEMENT FORCES INCLUSION AT JUST KRNH BUT THIS WILL BE MONITORED IN CASE OTHER TERMINALS DROP TO IFR-LIFR CEILINGS. SOME PATCHY MVFR-IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE DURG THE PRE-DAWN HRS AWAY FROM KMSP...THEN VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL TMRW AND TMRW NIGHT WITH ONLY HIGH DECKS. KMSP...VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THIS TAF SET WITH LOW CHANCES OF OVERNIGHT MVFR CONDS...MAINLY DUE TO POTENTIAL PRE-DAWN VSBY. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...MAINLY VFR WITH OCNL PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR IN SHRA/TSRA. WINDS SE 10-15 KT. SAT...MAINLY VFR WITH OCNL PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR IN SHRA/TSRA. WINDS SSW 10-15 KT BECOMING NW IN AFTERNOON. SUN...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHC OF MVFR SHRA/TSRA. N WINDS 5-10 KTS. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DWE LONG TERM...LS AVIATION...JPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
107 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 AT 20Z BROAD ZONAL FLOW WAS ESTABLISHED OVER MOST OF THE NORTHERN CONUS WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED DIFFUSE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. MAIN JET STREAK WAS POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF THE US/CANADIAN BORDER ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER STATES. A LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW WAS NOTED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING...WITH A STALLED FRONT EVIDENT ON SFC OBS AND SATELLITE STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS...THEN NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. LATEST OBS INDICATE THE FRONT IS BEGINNING TO CREEP BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL SERVE A FOCAL POINT FOR POTENTIAL CONVECTION OVER THE CWA TONIGHT. NORTH OF THE FRONT A RELATIVELY HUMID AIRMASS WAS IN PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. && .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 UPDATED FORECAST FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WATCH. ADJUSTED WINDS AND CLOUD COVER. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. THE HRRR HAS ROUTINELY SHOWN SPORADIC CONVECTIVE INITIATION WHERE IT CAN RESOLVE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DRAPED OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS RATHER WEAK AT THIS TIME SO AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE SPARSE AT BEST IF ANY CONVECTION CAN FIRE. BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN WYOMING/MONTANA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN DROP SOUTHEAST AS AN ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF STORMS ALONG THE CONVERGENT NOSE OF A STRENGTHENING LLJ. EXPECTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT TO RESIDE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTH. THE POTENTIAL WILL BE THERE FOR A FEW OF THE STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS TONIGHT CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. LATEST RAP13 AND NAM12 SHOW 800MB COMPUTED LI/S OF -8C TO -10C...ALONG WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 40-50 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. STORMS WILL PUSH SOUTH AND EAST AS THE LLJ VEERS EAST OVERNIGHT. SOME MODELS LINGER CONVECTION IN THE AREA THROUGH 15Z THURSDAY...BUT THIS MAY BE A LITTLE SLOW. LOWERED POPS TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH A LULL EXPECTED IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE CWA AS THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING IN A HUMID AIRMASS WILL PROMOTE STRONG DESTABILIZATION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME AREAL COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE ISOLATED WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES AND THE LACK OF A WELL DEFINED FOCAL POINT FOR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. MODELS SHOW THE BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS NORTH AND WEST OF CWA UNDERNEATH FASTER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND CLOSER TO A SFC LOW IN NORTHERN WYOMING. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE PLENTIFUL WITH PWATS ABOVE 1.25 INCHES WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING POCKETS ABOVE 1.50 INCHES. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS LIMITED. BY FRIDAY THE WARM FRONT WILL NORTH INTO S DAKOTA WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDING OVER THE CWA. RIDGE RIDING SHORT WAVE WILL FAVOR STORMS IN THE DAKOTAS WHICH MAY CLIP NORTHERN NEB...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH AT THIS TIME. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH TEMPS WILL BE CLIMBING. MORE SUMMER LIKE TEMPS EXPECTED WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ANTICIPATED. ALSO WILL BE A MUGGY DAY AS DEW POINTS LIKELY TO BE IN THE 60S. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. CAP IS FAIRLY STRONG AND BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE NEB/S DAKOTA BORDER. BY SAT NIGHT THE FRONT STALLS TO THE SOUTH OVER KS WHILE A SHORT WAVE MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE CAP AS THE GFS IS STRONGER AND LIMITS PRECIP TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHILE THE ECMWF IS COOLER AND STORMS SPREAD FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. AFTER A COOL DOWN FOR THE WEEKEND. THE STALLED FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE QUICKLY REBUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AND TEMPS CLIMB BACK TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER TO MID 90S. RIDGE RIDING WAVES LOOK TO KEEP MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE CWA...HOWEVER CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRAY STORM OR TWO DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVING ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1126 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST WYOMING AND BLACK HILLS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. WHILE TIMING THE STORMS REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...ARRIVAL IS EXPECTED AT KVTN AROUND 08Z AND KLBF AROUND 10Z. HEAVY RAIN...HAIL...AND STRONG WINDS ARE ALL POSSIBLE. NEW DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON THURSDAY AND HAVE BEEN INCLUDED AS A PROB30. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...POWER SYNOPSIS...MARTIN SHORT TERM...MARTIN LONG TERM...MASEK AVIATION...ROBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1126 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 AT 20Z BROAD ZONAL FLOW WAS ESTABLISHED OVER MOST OF THE NORTHERN CONUS WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED DIFFUSE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. MAIN JET STREAK WAS POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF THE US/CANADIAN BORDER ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER STATES. A LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW WAS NOTED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING...WITH A STALLED FRONT EVIDENT ON SFC OBS AND SATELLITE STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS...THEN NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. LATEST OBS INDICATE THE FRONT IS BEGINNING TO CREEP BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL SERVE A FOCAL POINT FOR POTENTIAL CONVECTION OVER THE CWA TONIGHT. NORTH OF THE FRONT A RELATIVELY HUMID AIRMASS WAS IN PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. THE HRRR HAS ROUTINELY SHOWN SPORADIC CONVECTIVE INITIATION WHERE IT CAN RESOLVE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DRAPED OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS RATHER WEAK AT THIS TIME SO AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE SPARSE AT BEST IF ANY CONVECTION CAN FIRE. BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN WYOMING/MONTANA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN DROP SOUTHEAST AS AN ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF STORMS ALONG THE CONVERGENT NOSE OF A STRENGTHENING LLJ. EXPECTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT TO RESIDE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTH. THE POTENTIAL WILL BE THERE FOR A FEW OF THE STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS TONIGHT CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. LATEST RAP13 AND NAM12 SHOW 800MB COMPUTED LI/S OF -8C TO -10C...ALONG WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 40-50 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. STORMS WILL PUSH SOUTH AND EAST AS THE LLJ VEERS EAST OVERNIGHT. SOME MODELS LINGER CONVECTION IN THE AREA THROUGH 15Z THURSDAY...BUT THIS MAY BE A LITTLE SLOW. LOWERED POPS TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH A LULL EXPECTED IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE CWA AS THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING IN A HUMID AIRMASS WILL PROMOTE STRONG DESTABILIZATION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME AREAL COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE ISOLATED WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES AND THE LACK OF A WELL DEFINED FOCAL POINT FOR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. MODELS SHOW THE BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS NORTH AND WEST OF CWA UNDERNEATH FASTER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND CLOSER TO A SFC LOW IN NORTHERN WYOMING. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE PLENTIFUL WITH PWATS ABOVE 1.25 INCHES WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING POCKETS ABOVE 1.50 INCHES. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS LIMITED. BY FRIDAY THE WARM FRONT WILL NORTH INTO S DAKOTA WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDING OVER THE CWA. RIDGE RIDING SHORT WAVE WILL FAVOR STORMS IN THE DAKOTAS WHICH MAY CLIP NORTHERN NEB...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH AT THIS TIME. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH TEMPS WILL BE CLIMBING. MORE SUMMER LIKE TEMPS EXPECTED WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ANTICIPATED. ALSO WILL BE A MUGGY DAY AS DEW POINTS LIKELY TO BE IN THE 60S. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. CAP IS FAIRLY STRONG AND BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE NEB/S DAKOTA BORDER. BY SAT NIGHT THE FRONT STALLS TO THE SOUTH OVER KS WHILE A SHORT WAVE MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE CAP AS THE GFS IS STRONGER AND LIMITS PRECIP TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHILE THE ECMWF IS COOLER AND STORMS SPREAD FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. AFTER A COOL DOWN FOR THE WEEKEND. THE STALLED FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE QUICKLY REBUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AND TEMPS CLIMB BACK TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER TO MID 90S. RIDGE RIDING WAVES LOOK TO KEEP MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE CWA...HOWEVER CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRAY STORM OR TWO DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVING ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1126 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST WYOMING AND BLACK HILLS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. WHILE TIMING THE STORMS REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...ARRIVAL IS EXPECTED AT KVTN AROUND 08Z AND KLBF AROUND 10Z. HEAVY RAIN...HAIL...AND STRONG WINDS ARE ALL POSSIBLE. NEW DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON THURSDAY AND HAVE BEEN INCLUDED AS A PROB30. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MARTIN SHORT TERM...MARTIN LONG TERM...MASEK AVIATION...ROBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
310 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HOT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SPREADING OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES WILL KEEP NORTHERN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS STALLED OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO NEXT WEEK. EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR IN THIS PATTERN WITH AN ENHANCED RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF BILL. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... RADAR TRENDS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS MOD TO LOCALLY HVY RAFL MOVG THRU THE LWR SUSQ VLY...ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PA TURNPIKE. THIS PCPN IS ASSOCD WITH H5 S/WV MOVING EWD ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES...ALIGNED WITHIN BAND OF PERSISTENTLY HIGH PWS POOLED ALONG EAST/WEST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EWD FROM THE MID MS/OH VLY. THE LATEST HRRR IS SUGGESTING THAT THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL EXIT THE LNS AREA BY 09Z. UPSTREAM RADAR OVER ERN OH SHOWS VERY LIGHT RETURNS MOVG INTO SW PA ASSOCD WITH NEXT PIECE OF H5 S/WV ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE WLY FLOW ALOFT LOCATED ON NRN PERIPHERY OF HOT RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. INDICATIONS FROM MESO GUIDANCE SUPPORT LOWERING POPS AFT 09Z AND MAY NEED TO ADJUST DOWNWARD AGAIN WITH NEXT UPDATE. UNTIL THEN WILL MAINTAIN HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SRN 1/3 OF THE CWA THRU DAYBREAK. THE FCST FOR LATER TODAY/THIS AFTN STILL LOOKS SOMEWHAT MESSY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND DURING THE MORNING AS SHORTWAVE PASSES EAST OF PA. THE NAM SUGGESTS MUCH OF THE CWA WILL BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE BY THE AFTERNOON AS SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS NE THRU THE AREA AND SKIES BECOME PTSUNNY. PORTIONS OF ERN PA COULD REMAIN CLOUDY/STABLE EAST OF WARM FRONT WITH NAM LI PROGS STRONGLY POSITIVE FROM NJ INTO THE POCONOS. THAT SHOULD KEEP THE RISK OF LATE DAY TSTMS CONFINED TO WRN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE LATEST SPC SLIGHT RISK WAS SHIFTED SEWD FROM THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU TO INCLUDE ALL OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL MTNS WHERE WEAK WARM/FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SET UP. A MID-LVL TROUGH CROSSING SERN CANADA WILL PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS SRN LWR MI INTO WRN NY BY LATE TNGT. AN AXIS OF HI PWS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MID-60S DEWPOINTS IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. ML CAPE SHOULD REMAIN MODEST GIVEN WEAK MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND MULTI-LAYER CLOUDS. BELT OF STRONGER MID-LVL WESTERLIES SHOULD EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR AND PROMOTE RISK FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS THU EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF BETTER HEATING/CLOUD BREAKS WHERE LLVL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN. DRIER AIR SHOULD START TO WORK INTO NWRN PA LATE TNGT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES SWD ACRS SOUTH-CENTRAL PA TOWARD THE MASON DIXON LINE. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... FRIDAY IS LOOKING MAINLY DRY OVERALL AS DRIER/LOWER PW AIR MAKES A PUSH INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. HOWEVER STILL CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM OVER SOUTHERN PA WHERE PWS REMAIN MARGINAL AND MODELS SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY. A RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT LOOKS IN STORE ACROSS NRN AREAS WITH SOME OVERNIGHT READINGS POSSIBLY IN THE UPPER 40S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NORTHERN PA WILL BE COOL AND DRY INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND SEASONABLE ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE HIGH CENTER SLIPS EAST OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY OVERNIGHT AS REMNANTS FROM TD BILL MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE EXACT TIMING AND TRACK OF THE STORM AND HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME BUT THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS. IF RAINS FROM TD BILL ARE STEADY OVER 12 TO 24 HOURS THEN THE RAIN WILL HELP MITIGATE A DROUGHT WATCH OVER PORTIONS OF PA. BUT IF HEAVY RAINS COME IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME SUCH AS A FEW HOURS...THEN FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING COULD BE A CONCERN PARTICULARLY FOR SMALLER STREAMS. MODELS SHOW THE REMNANTS OF BILL INTERACTING WITH A FRONT ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY AND MOVING OFF THE COAST MONDAY. HOWEVER THERE APPEARS TO BE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS ON WHETHER THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION OUT OR HANGS UP AGAIN ACROSS THE STATE WITH ANOTHER WITH ANOTHER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... LATEST RADAR SHOWS A PRECIPITATION BAND CONTINUING TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST...AFFECTING MDT AND LNS. THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND SHOULD ALLOW MDT AND LNS TO CLEAR BETWEEN 07 TO 09Z. HOWEVER AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT TO CALM AND TEMPS DROP LOW CIGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES WILL ENVELOP THE REGION. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH MOIST LOWER LEVELS IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE PRECIPITATION IS STILL ONGOING. ALL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING MVFR/IFR/LIFR CIGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AIRSPACE WITH THE LOWERING CIGS AND AREAS OF LIGHT FOG...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN HIGH LLVL MSTR AND LGT/SOUTH/EAST LLVL FLOW. LOW CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE INTO THURSDAY AFTN WITH THE MAIN TSTM RISK CENTERED OVER THE FAR WRN AIRSPACE IN ZOB SECTOR. OUTLOOK... FRI...BCMG VFR. SAT-MON...VFR/MVFR WITH PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA. LOCALLY +RA PSBL SAT NGT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL LONG TERM...WATSON/STEINBUGL AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
200 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HOT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SPREADING OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES WILL KEEP NORTHERN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS STALLED OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO NEXT WEEK. EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR IN THIS PATTERN WITH AN ENHANCED RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF BILL. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... RADAR TRENDS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS MOD TO LOCALLY HVY RAFL MOVG THRU THE LWR SUSQ VLY...ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PA TURNPIKE. THIS PCPN IS ASSOCD WITH H5 S/WV MOVING EWD ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES...ALIGNED WITHIN BAND OF PERSISTENTLY HIGH PWS POOLED ALONG EAST/WEST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EWD FROM THE MID MS/OH VLY. THE LATEST HRRR IS SUGGESTING THAT THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL EXIT THE LNS AREA BY 09Z. UPSTREAM RADAR OVER ERN OH SHOWS VERY LIGHT RETURNS MOVG INTO SW PA ASSOCD WITH NEXT PIECE OF H5 S/WV ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE WLY FLOW ALOFT LOCATED ON NRN PERIPHERY OF HOT RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. INDICATIONS FROM MESO GUIDANCE SUPPORT LOWERING POPS AFT 09Z AND MAY NEED TO ADJUST DOWNWARD AGAIN WITH NEXT UPDATE. UNTIL THEN WILL MAINTAIN HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SRN 1/3 OF THE CWA THRU DAYBREAK. THE FCST FOR LATER TODAY/THIS AFTN STILL LOOKS SOMEWHAT MESSY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND DURING THE MORNING AS SHORTWAVE PASSES EAST OF PA. THE NAM SUGGESTS MUCH OF THE CWA WILL BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE BY THE AFTERNOON AS SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS NE THRU THE AREA AND SKIES BECOME PTSUNNY. PORTIONS OF ERN PA COULD REMAIN CLOUDY/STABLE EAST OF WARM FRONT WITH NAM LI PROGS STRONGLY POSITIVE FROM NJ INTO THE POCONOS. THAT SHOULD KEEP THE RISK OF LATE DAY TSTMS CONFINED TO WRN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE LATEST SPC SLIGHT RISK WAS SHIFTED SEWD FROM THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU TO INCLUDE ALL OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL MTNS WHERE WEAK WARM/FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SET UP. A MID-LVL TROUGH CROSSING SERN CANADA WILL PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS SRN LWR MI INTO WRN NY BY LATE TNGT. AN AXIS OF HI PWS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MID-60S DEWPOINTS IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. ML CAPE SHOULD REMAIN MODEST GIVEN WEAK MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND MULTI-LAYER CLOUDS. BELT OF STRONGER MID-LVL WESTERLIES SHOULD EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR AND PROMOTE RISK FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS THU EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF BETTER HEATING/CLOUD BREAKS WHERE LLVL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN. DRIER AIR SHOULD START TO WORK INTO NWRN PA LATE TNGT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES SWD ACRS SOUTH-CENTRAL PA TOWARD THE MASON DIXON LINE. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... FRIDAY IS LOOKING MAINLY DRY OVERALL AS DRIER/LOWER PW AIR MAKES A PUSH INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. HOWEVER STILL CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM OVER SOUTHERN PA WHERE PWS REMAIN MARGINAL AND MODELS SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY. A RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT LOOKS IN STORE ACROSS NRN AREAS WITH SOME OVERNIGHT READINGS POSSIBLY IN THE UPPER 40S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NORTHERN PA WILL BE COOL AND DRY INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND SEASONABLE ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE HIGH CENTER SLIPS EAST OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY OVERNIGHT AS REMNANTS FROM TD BILL MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE EXACT TIMING AND TRACK OF THE STORM AND HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME BUT THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS. IF RAINS FROM TD BILL ARE STEADY OVER 12 TO 24 HOURS THEN THE RAIN WILL HELP MITIGATE A DROUGHT WATCH OVER PORTIONS OF PA. BUT IF HEAVY RAINS COME IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME SUCH AS A FEW HOURS...THEN FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING COULD BE A CONCERN PARTICULARLY FOR SMALLER STREAMS. MODELS SHOW THE REMNANTS OF BILL INTERACTING WITH A FRONT ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY AND MOVING OFF THE COAST MONDAY. HOWEVER THERE APPEARS TO BE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS ON WHETHER THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION OUT OR HANGS UP AGAIN ACROSS THE STATE WITH ANOTHER WITH ANOTHER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... CONDS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THIS EVE AS LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOW ANY SIG RAIN SHOWERS STAYING SOUTH OF THE PA/MD BORDER ATTM. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH MOIST LOWER LEVELS IN PLACE. ALL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING MVFR/IFR/LIFR CIGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AIRSPACE WITH THE LOWERING CIGS AND AREAS OF LIGHT FOG...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN HIGH LLVL MSTR AND LGT/SOUTH/EAST LLVL FLOW. LOW CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE INTO THURS AFTN WITH THE MAIN TSTM RISK CENTERED OVER THE FAR WRN AIRSPACE IN ZOB SECTOR. OUTLOOK... FRI...BCMG VFR. SAT-MON...VFR/MVFR WITH PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA. LOCALLY +RA PSBL SAT NGT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL/WATSON LONG TERM...WATSON/STEINBUGL AVIATION...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1241 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 841 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST MT THIS EVENING WERE HEADING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST SD. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SHOWED THIS CONVECTION HOLDING TOGETHER AND EXPANDING SOME AS IT HEADS SOUTHEAST INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL SD LATER TONIGHT. MAY ADJUST CHANCES UP A LITTLE AS IT GETS CLOSER. NOT MUCH FOR INSTABILITY INTO CENTRAL SD ALONG WITH ANY LLJ. UPDATE ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 AS EXPECTED...CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO ERODE TODAY BUT SKIES HAVE BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER CENTRAL SD. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...WILL BE WATCHING WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY ENTERING THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AS A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET ALSO DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. MODELS AGREE FAIRLY WELL IN BRINGING A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS WESTERN SD THEN INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY POTENTIAL COMPLEX IS THE BIG QUESTION. WILL KEEP POPS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME BUT EVENING/OVERNIGHT SHIFT MAY NEED TO INCREASE POPS ONCE THIS BEGINS TO EVOLVE. MUCAPE OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST CWA DOES SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT WITH DECENT AMOUNTS OF SHEAR. COULD POSSIBLY BE A FEW STRONGER STORMS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD. THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING LOOK GENERALLY DRY ACROSS THE AREA AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS MN AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE INITIAL PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. UNFORTUNATELY THERE IS NOT A LOT OF AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS IN REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND PLACEMENT OF BEST CONVERGENCE. NOT MUCH AGREEMENT ON WHERE THE POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL BE AS WELL. WILL THEN BE WATCHING FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE INCREASING THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS. SFC DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES ON FRIDAY. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPS BY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT MODELS DO STILL SHOW RATHER WARM TEMPS ALOFT SPREADING OVER THE REGION...SO CAPPING WILL BE AN ISSUE. SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH MODELS TRYING TO GENERATE CONVECTION. THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH TO BUST THROUGH THE CAP AND IF THIS HAPPENS...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE SVR PARAMETERS. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES AT 500 AND 700MB WILL EXIT THE REGION SAT MORNING. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/TSTORMS EARLY. ANOTHER WEAKER LOW WILL MOVES ACROSS ND SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTORMS. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY QUICK MOVING SFC LOWS AND SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK. MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY RESOLVING TIMING AND AREAL EXTENT AS IS TYPICAL WITH THESE PATTERNS SO STUCK WITH A MODEL BLENDED BROAD BRUSH APPROACH. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE MID 80S THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OUT WEST MAY AFFECT THE PIR AREA FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON OUT WEST AND MAY AFFECT PIR AND MBG THURSDAY EVENING. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MOHR SHORT TERM...TMT LONG TERM...WISE AVIATION...TDK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
355 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 .DISCUSSION... RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL STILL HAS A GOOD CIRCULATION THAT WAS CENTERED NORTHWEST OF DURANT OKLAHOMA AS OF 330 AM. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUED ALONG THE RED RIVER COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS AND THE MAIN FEEDER BAND EXTENDED SOUTHEAST OF A COLLEGE STATION TO TYLER TO TEXARKANA LINE. THE QUESTION FOR TODAY IS HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL THE FORECAST AREA HAVE. THE COMPUTER MODELS VARY QUITE A LOT ON THIS QUESTION WITH THE NAM KEEPING MOST OF THE RAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF I-20 LATE AFTERNOON. THE HRRR AND TEXAS TECH MODELS INDICATE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TODAY PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST OF A SULPHUR SPRINGS TO COMANCHE LINE WITH SOME BANDS OF LIGHTER RAIN NORTH OF I-20. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT THE BEST POPS/60 TO 80 PERCENT/ ALONG THE RED RIVER AND ALSO EAST OF I-35. HAVE KEPT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALONG THE RED RIVER...AND ALSO FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A BONHAM TO TERRELL TO HILLSBORO TO KILLEEN LINE UNTIL 7 PM. WE TOYED WITH THE IDEA OF A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR TODAY...BUT DECIDED INSTEAD TO GO WITH WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 80 IN THE NORTHEAST THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE WEST. 58 && .AVIATION... /ISSUED 112 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015/ /06Z TAFS/ CONCERNS...CEILINGS. AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL MOVES INTO OKLAHOMA...IT WILL TAKE ITS PRECIPITATION WITH IT. IN ADDITION...WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT...WITH A PREVAILING SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. MVFR CEILINGS ARE JUST UPSTREAM OF WACO...AND EXPECT THAT THESE WILL INVADE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS SIMILAR CONDITIONS IN THE METROPLEX...BUT WITH THE DRY SLOT IN PLACE...THIS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK WHEN THE SUN HEATS THE MOIST SURFACE LAYER. FOR NOW...HAVE MVFR CEILINGS ARRIVING AT 09Z...AT WHICH POINT THE SITUATION CAN BE REASSESSED FOR THE ROUTINE AMENDMENTS. THE CEILINGS SHOULD STEADILY CLIMB ON THURSDAY. WACO WILL BE THE FARTHEST FROM THE LINGERING WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE AND WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SCATTER OUT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. 25 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 89 74 93 76 92 / 50 20 20 10 5 WACO, TX 90 73 92 74 91 / 50 20 20 5 10 PARIS, TX 80 71 88 73 90 / 80 50 20 10 10 DENTON, TX 86 70 92 74 91 / 50 20 20 10 5 MCKINNEY, TX 86 71 92 73 91 / 60 30 20 10 10 DALLAS, TX 89 75 93 76 91 / 50 20 20 10 10 TERRELL, TX 87 72 92 74 90 / 60 30 20 10 10 CORSICANA, TX 86 73 91 73 90 / 60 20 20 5 10 TEMPLE, TX 89 72 90 73 90 / 50 20 20 5 10 MINERAL WELLS, TX 91 70 92 72 92 / 40 20 20 5 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091>095-105>107- 120>123-134-135-145>148-158>162-174-175. && $$ 91/58
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1157 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2015 .DISCUSSION... See 06z aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are generally expected for the next 24 hours. There is a slight chance of storms moving into the CNM and HOB areas tonight. Winds will generally remain light out of the south to southeast. && PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2015/ DISCUSSION... Isolated showers have developed over the area this afternoon on the backside of Tropical Cyclone Bill which is now about to cross the Red River into OK. The majority of this activity will stay in the eastern Permian Basin before diminishing after sunset. As Bill lifts northeast, an upper ridge will try to build east across the Southern Plains. Before it does so, our region will remain in weak northerly mid level flow. If thunderstorms form over the TX Panhandle or NE NM later this afternoon or Thursday they will move south and may make it to the area during the overnight hours. Both the HRRR and WRF-NMM show a complex of showers and storms moving across eastern NM and W TX overnight. Rain chances diminish Friday into the weekend as the upper ridge takes hold on the area. Will need to monitor the strength of the ridge as recent models have shown a weakness/inverted trough developing over South Texas and slowly drifting it west. This solution could bring a few showers and storms back to the area from the east late in the weekend into next week. Much warmer conditions are expected tomorrow as mid level temperatures increase quite a bit. Expect highs to be about 5 to 10 degrees warmer than today. Temperatures will moderate somewhat into the weekend as easterly flow sets up along with abundant low level moisture. If we see the inverted trough move across the area early next week, high temperatures may struggle to get out of the 80s! && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 99 Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: http://facebook.com/NWSMidland http://twitter.com/NWSMidland Check us out on the internet at: http://weather.gov/midland
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1117 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 CONVECTION HAS BEEN DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL IOWA ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY AND AHEAD OF WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THIS ACTIVITY HAS FORMED IN AN AXIS OF ABOUT 1000 J/KG OF ML CAPE WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40 TO 45 KNOTS. THE 17.18Z RAP SUGGESTS THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND THAT THE CAPE AXIS WILL ESSENTIALLY REMAIN IN PLACE. THE RAP ALSO INDICATES THE BEST SHEAR IS OCCURRING RIGHT NOW AND THIS SHOULD THEN DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON TO 35 KNOTS OR LESS IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 AND 25 KNOTS OR LESS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER. MOST OF THE HI-RES MESO MODELS SHOW A TREND OF CONTINUED EXPANSION OF THE STORMS THROUGH ABOUT 21Z OR 22Z AND THEN SHOW A DIMINISHING TREND AS THE SHEAR DROPS OFF. THE RAP CONTINUES TO SHOW A VERY TALL AND SKINNY CAPE PROFILE IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR KRST SO BELIEVE LOCAL DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT ONE OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME SUB SEVERE HAIL OR WIND GUSTS. THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH HELPING THIS ACTIVITY WAS COMING ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA AND WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. THE RAP ALSO CONTINUES TO SHOW ONLY WEAK FORCING FROM THIS WAVE WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE CONVECTION MORE ON THE SCATTERED SIDE. PLAN TO START THE EARLY EVENING WITH AROUND A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OVER THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY AND THEN QUICKLY TREND THIS DOWN TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE EVENING AS THE CAPE DIMINISHES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OUT OF CANADA THURSDAY AND DRIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE A SHORT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN ZONAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO COME ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THE 17.12Z NAM AND GFS INDICATE THIS WAVE SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME WEAK PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER. THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD INDICATED SO HAVE LIMITED THE RAIN CHANCES TO THE 20 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH THE WEAK PV ADVECTION SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING WEAK TO POSSIBLY SOME MODERATE FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 1000-700 MB LAYER AND THEN WEAK ABOVE THAT UP TO 500 MB. THE ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE ON THE 305K SURFACE AHEAD OF THE WAVE LOOKS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 3 UBAR/S. FOR NOW WILL STAY WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH 50 TO 60 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THIS SOLUTION GIVEN THE LACK PV ADVECTION AND THE NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY POSITIVE TILT TO THE WAVE. AFTER THAT...THE ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS COMING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOME RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES CENTERED ON MONDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1117 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 AREA OF VFR/MVFR CIGS SLIDING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN MN/NORTHWEST WI. THESE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES...BUT THE UNCERTAINTY LIES WITH WHETHER VFR OR MVFR CIGS WILL BE PREDOMINANT. MOSTLY VFR INDICATED IN LATEST OBS. WITH THE EVENING RAINS FURTHER MOISTENING THE BOUNDARY LAYER - SUB 3 KFT WOULD SEEM FAVORED. RAP/HRRR/NAM12 RH FIELDS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS POINT TO AN MVFR DECK OF STRATUS STICKING AROUND/DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...POTENTIALLY HOLDING A FEW HOURS PAST 12Z THU. WILL KEEP THE TAFS POINTED IN THIS DIRECTION...AND MONITOR TRENDS. CONFIDENCE NOT OVERLY HIGH HERE...BUT ENOUGH INDICATORS THAT FAVOR INCLUDING THE LOWER CIGS. EXPECT A BREAK UP OF THE LOW CIGS - IF THEY DEVELOP - BY MID MORNING THU AS THE AREA GRADUALLY COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM...04 AVIATION...RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1123 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM`S ASSOCIATED BOUNDARIES WILL BRING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT, A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL RETURN FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A WARM FRONT IS GRADUALLY APPROACHING AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT BEARS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH TONIGHT. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER ADJUSTED THEIR OUTLOOK FOR THE LOCAL AREA AND NOW ONLY THE NORTHWESTERN MOST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA...HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES...IS UNDER MARGINAL RISK. CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. MOISTURE PROFILES WILL INCREASE AND EMBEDDED WITHIN A FAST WEST-EAST ZONAL FLOW A FEW SUBTLE SHORT WAVES SO CAN NOT RULE OUT WIDELY SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDER AS THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER LATE IN THE DAY. THE HRRR INDICATES CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT PROGRESSING THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA IS FORECAST TO TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND UPSTATE NY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ASSIST WITH ENHANCING THE LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN RATHER POOR AND DUE TO THE NOCTURNAL TIMING OF FROPA ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWFA...SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS VERY LOW. LATEST COORDINATION FROM SPC ALSO SUGGESTS A LOW END MARGINAL RISK WEST AND NORTHWEST OF ALBANY SO WE WILL MENTION ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH MAINLY SHOWERS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. MOS NUMBERS ARE RATHER SIMILAR AS A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... FRIDAY...AS MODEL TRENDS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE FROPA...WE WILL RETAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF I90 IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH FROPA AS IMPROVING SKY COVERAGE COMMENCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THE TERRAIN MAY HOLD ONTO SOME CLOUD COVERAGE BUT EVENTUALLY THE SUBSIDENCE SEEN IN THE OMEGA FIELDS WITHIN THE NCEP MODEL SUITE WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE. H850 TEMPS COOL BACK INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS BY THE END OF THE DAY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS SUGGEST WE WILL HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO TAP INTO HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT FOR SURFACE WIND GUSTS NEAR 20KTS. A COOL AND PLEASANT EVENING IS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EVOLVING AS THE CANADIAN SFC HIGH MOVES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND. H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +6C TO +8C RANGE FROM THE I90 CORRIDOR AND POINTS NORTH...AND +8C TO +10C TO THE SOUTH. LOWS WILL BE IN THE U40S TO L50S FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION SOUTH...AND 40-45F TO THE NORTH...PERHAPS A FEW ISOLD U30S IN THE SRN DACKS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... GENERALLY ZONAL UPPER PATTERN ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF FLAT UPPER RIDGING IN THE EASTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE THE VERY CHANGEABLE WEATHER FROM DAY TO DAY...THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS PATTERN OF WHAT SEEMS TO BE ALTERNATING ONE OR TWO DRY DAYS THEN ONE OR TWO WET DAYS SHOULD CONTINUE AS WEST MEAN FLOW KEEPS FEEDING UPPER ENERGY AND MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION EVERY DAY OR TWO. APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY SATURDAY NIGHT MAY INTERACT WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM AND PROVIDE GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT...REACHING LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY (AROUND 70 PERCENT)...THEN DECREASING POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. IT WILL BECOME QUITE HUMID DURING THIS PERIOD WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE 60S IN MOST PLACES. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY...BUT WITH LINGERING TROFINESS ALOFT...A SHOWER OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...SO HAVE KEPT SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. BECOMING LESS HUMID MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER AND LOWS 50 TO 60. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL AFFECT OUR REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO HAVE FORECAST NO HIGHER THAN 30 PERCENT POPS DURING THIS PERIOD. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE 70 TO 80. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND BRING PLEASANT WEATHER. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A WARM FRONT IS GRADUALLY APPROACHING AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT BEARS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH TONIGHT. VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS AREA WITH VFR-MVFR CEILINGS. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND EMBEDDED WITHIN A FAST WEST- EAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS REGION THERE ARE A FEW SUBTLE SHORT WAVES SO CAN NOT RULE OUT WIDELY SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDER AS THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER LATE IN THE DAY. THE HRRR INDICATES CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. AS THREAT FOR SHOWERS BECOMES MORE NUMEROUS AND HAVE FORECAST MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES DUE TO SHOWERS. TSTMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT THE CHANCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THE SHOWERS WILL END AND THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST OR NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT...BUT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 15 KTS AT KALB. THESE WIND CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE WELL INTO THURSDAY NIGHT....THEN SHIFT TO NORTH OR NORTHWEST BETWEEN 08Z AND 11Z FRIDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA. SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA. SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA. MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... CLOUDS ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST INTO TONIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DECREASE TO 45 TO 65 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 5-10 MPH THIS MORNING...AND BE SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN SHIFT TO THE W TO NW AT 5 TO 15 MPH THURSDAY NIGHT. A NORTHERLY BREEZE FRIDAY WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH. && .HYDROLOGY... RIVER LEVELS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RECEDE INTO THURSDAY...WITH SOME POSSIBLE RISES ON THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM ONE TENTH TO A THIRD AN INCH WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...AS THE MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL ENTITY BILL MAY IMPACT PARTS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...IAA/BGM NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA LONG TERM...GJM AVIATION...IAA/GJM FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
639 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS... CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT OVER WESTERN NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA TODAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...AS A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 625 AM EDT...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. DID LOWER POPS THIS MORNING BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AS THE HRRR APPEARS TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SHOWERS THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. PREV DISC...A VARIETY OF CLOUD TYPES REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH SCT- BKN LOWER STRATUS FROM I90 SOUTHWARD AND A CANOPY OF BKN- OVC HIGH CLOUDS THAT CONTINUE TO THICKEN. SO WE WILL GO WITH A MOCLDY FORECAST THE REMAINDER OF THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD. THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...MOISTURE PROFILES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND EMBEDDED WITHIN A FAST WEST-EAST ZONAL FLOW AS CLEARLY SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR IMAGERY...A FEW SUBTLE SHORT WAVES WHICH WE CAN NOT RULE OUT WIDELY SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY. THE LATEST HRRR REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS COINCIDES WITH THESE IDEAS AS WE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE...WE WILL FORECAST TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. COLD FRONT PROGRESSING THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA IS FORECAST TO TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND UPSTATE NY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ASSIST WITH ENHANCING THE LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN RATHER POOR AND DUE TO THE NOCTURNAL TIMING OF FROPA ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWFA...SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS VERY LOW. LATEST COORDINATION FROM SPC ALSO SUGGESTS A LOW END MARGINAL RISK WEST AND NORTHWEST OF ALBANY SO WE WILL MENTION ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH MAINLY SHOWERS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. MOS NUMBERS ARE RATHER SIMILAR AS A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... FRIDAY...AS MODEL TRENDS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE FROPA...WE WILL RETAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF I90 IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH FROPA AS IMPROVING SKY COVERAGE COMMENCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THE TERRAIN MAY HOLD ONTO SOME CLOUD COVERAGE BUT EVENTUALLY THE SUBSIDENCE SEEN IN THE OMEGA FIELDS WITHIN THE NCEP MODEL SUITE WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE. H850 TEMPS COOL BACK INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS BY THE END OF THE DAY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS SUGGEST WE WILL HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO TAP INTO HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT FOR SURFACE WIND GUSTS NEAR 20KTS. A COOL AND PLEASANT EVENING IS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EVOLVING AS THE CANADIAN SFC HIGH MOVES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND. H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +6C TO +8C RANGE FROM THE I90 CORRIDOR AND POINTS NORTH...AND +8C TO +10C TO THE SOUTH. LOWS WILL BE IN THE U40S TO L50S FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION SOUTH...AND 40-45F TO THE NORTH...PERHAPS A FEW ISOLD U30S IN THE SRN DACKS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... GENERALLY ZONAL UPPER PATTERN ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF FLAT UPPER RIDGING IN THE EASTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE THE VERY CHANGEABLE WEATHER FROM DAY TO DAY...THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS PATTERN OF WHAT SEEMS TO BE ALTERNATING ONE OR TWO DRY DAYS THEN ONE OR TWO WET DAYS SHOULD CONTINUE AS WEST MEAN FLOW KEEPS FEEDING UPPER ENERGY AND MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION EVERY DAY OR TWO. APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY SATURDAY NIGHT MAY INTERACT WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM AND PROVIDE GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT...REACHING LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY (AROUND 70 PERCENT)...THEN DECREASING POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. IT WILL BECOME QUITE HUMID DURING THIS PERIOD WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE 60S IN MOST PLACES. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY...BUT WITH LINGERING TROFINESS ALOFT...A SHOWER OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...SO HAVE KEPT SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. BECOMING LESS HUMID MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER AND LOWS 50 TO 60. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL AFFECT OUR REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO HAVE FORECAST NO HIGHER THAN 30 PERCENT POPS DURING THIS PERIOD. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE 70 TO 80. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND BRING PLEASANT WEATHER. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 630 AM...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND IT WAS BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE REGION. MVFR STRATUS HAVE MOVED INTO KALB/KGFL... WITH IFR/MVFR STRATUS AT KPSF. CIGS WERE 5000 FEET AT KPOU. THE MVFR/IFR STRATUS SHOULD LINGER UNTIL MID MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT. GENERALLY CLOUDY BUT WITH A VFR CLOUD DECK WILL OCCUR AT THE TAF SITES FOR THE REST OF TODAY. AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST...THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT THE TAF SITES LATE THIS AFTN...AND HAVE INDICATED VCSH AT THE TAF SITES STARTING 20Z/21Z...AND A FEW HOURS EARLIER (16Z) AT KPOU. BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z FRIDAY...THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND HAVE FORECAST MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES DUE TO SHOWERS. TSTMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT THE CHANCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THE SHOWERS WILL END AND THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST OR NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT...BUT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 15 KTS AT KALB. THESE WIND CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE WELL INTO THURSDAY NIGHT....THEN SHIFT TO NORTH OR NORTHWEST BETWEEN 08Z AND 11Z FRIDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA. SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA. SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA. MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... CLOUDS ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST INTO TONIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DECREASE TO 45 TO 65 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 5-10 MPH THIS MORNING...AND BE SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN SHIFT TO THE W TO NW AT 5 TO 15 MPH THURSDAY NIGHT. A NORTHERLY BREEZE FRIDAY WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH. && .HYDROLOGY... RIVER LEVELS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RECEDE INTO THURSDAY...WITH SOME POSSIBLE RISES ON THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM ONE TENTH TO A THIRD AN INCH WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...AS THE MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL ENTITY BILL MAY IMPACT PARTS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BGM NEAR TERM...BGM SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA LONG TERM...GJM AVIATION...GJM FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
627 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS... CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT OVER WESTERN NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA TODAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...AS A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 625 AM EDT...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. DID LOWER POPS THIS MORNING BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AS THE HRRR APPEARS TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SHOWERS THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. PREV DISC...A VARIETY OF CLOUD TYPES REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH SCT- BKN LOWER STRATUS FROM I90 SOUTHWARD AND A CANOPY OF BKN- OVC HIGH CLOUDS THAT CONTINUE TO THICKEN. SO WE WILL GO WITH A MOCLDY FORECAST THE REMAINDER OF THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD. THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...MOISTURE PROFILES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND EMBEDDED WITHIN A FAST WEST-EAST ZONAL FLOW AS CLEARLY SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR IMAGERY...A FEW SUBTLE SHORT WAVES WHICH WE CAN NOT RULE OUT WIDELY SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY. THE LATEST HRRR REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS COINCIDES WITH THESE IDEAS AS WE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE...WE WILL FORECAST TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. COLD FRONT PROGRESSING THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA IS FORECAST TO TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND UPSTATE NY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ASSIST WITH ENHANCING THE LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN RATHER POOR AND DUE TO THE NOCTURNAL TIMING OF FROPA ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWFA...SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS VERY LOW. LATEST COORDINATION FROM SPC ALSO SUGGESTS A LOW END MARGINAL RISK WEST AND NORTHWEST OF ALBANY SO WE WILL MENTION ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH MAINLY SHOWERS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. MOS NUMBERS ARE RATHER SIMILAR AS A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... FRIDAY...AS MODEL TRENDS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE FROPA...WE WILL RETAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF I90 IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH FROPA AS IMPROVING SKY COVERAGE COMMENCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THE TERRAIN MAY HOLD ONTO SOME CLOUD COVERAGE BUT EVENTUALLY THE SUBSIDENCE SEEN IN THE OMEGA FIELDS WITHIN THE NCEP MODEL SUITE WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE. H850 TEMPS COOL BACK INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS BY THE END OF THE DAY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS SUGGEST WE WILL HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO TAP INTO HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT FOR SURFACE WIND GUSTS NEAR 20KTS. A COOL AND PLEASANT EVENING IS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EVOLVING AS THE CANADIAN SFC HIGH MOVES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND. H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +6C TO +8C RANGE FROM THE I90 CORRIDOR AND POINTS NORTH...AND +8C TO +10C TO THE SOUTH. LOWS WILL BE IN THE U40S TO L50S FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION SOUTH...AND 40-45F TO THE NORTH...PERHAPS A FEW ISOLD U30S IN THE SRN DACKS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... GENERALLY ZONAL UPPER PATTERN ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF FLAT UPPER RIDGING IN THE EASTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE THE VERY CHANGEABLE WEATHER FROM DAY TO DAY...THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS PATTERN OF WHAT SEEMS TO BE ALTERNATING ONE OR TWO DRY DAYS THEN ONE OR TWO WET DAYS SHOULD CONTINUE AS WEST MEAN FLOW KEEPS FEEDING UPPER ENERGY AND MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION EVERY DAY OR TWO. APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY SATURDAY NIGHT MAY INTERACT WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM AND PROVIDE GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT...REACHING LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY (AROUND 70 PERCENT)...THEN DECREASING POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. IT WILL BECOME QUITE HUMID DURING THIS PERIOD WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE 60S IN MOST PLACES. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY...BUT WITH LINGERING TROFINESS ALOFT...A SHOWER OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...SO HAVE KEPT SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. BECOMING LESS HUMID MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER AND LOWS 50 TO 60. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL AFFECT OUR REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO HAVE FORECAST NO HIGHER THAN 30 PERCENT POPS DURING THIS PERIOD. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE 70 TO 80. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND BRING PLEASANT WEATHER. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 130 AM...HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES. ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH A LOWER VFR STRATOCU DECK ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. THE CLOUDINESS AND DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER...WHILE THE LOWER CLOUD DECK PERSISTS ACROSS THE SOUTH. AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST...THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT THE TAF SITES LATE THURSDAY AFTN...AND HAVE INDICATED VCSH AT THE TAF SITES STARTING 20Z/21Z...AND A FEW HOURS EARLIER (16Z) AT KPOU. BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z FRIDAY...THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND HAVE FORECAST MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES DUE TO SHOWERS. TSTMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT THE CHANCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. MAINLY CALM CONDITIONS THROUGH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE...THEN SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 15 KTS AT KALB. THESE WIND CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. OUTLOOK... LATE THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA. SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA. SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA. MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... CLOUDS ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST INTO TONIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DECREASE TO 45 TO 65 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 5-10 MPH THIS MORNING...AND BE SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN SHIFT TO THE W TO NW AT 5 TO 15 MPH THURSDAY NIGHT. A NORTHERLY BREEZE FRIDAY WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH. && .HYDROLOGY... RIVER LEVELS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RECEDE INTO THURSDAY...WITH SOME POSSIBLE RISES ON THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM ONE TENTH TO A THIRD AN INCH WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...AS THE MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL ENTITY BILL MAY IMPACT PARTS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BGM NEAR TERM...BGM SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA LONG TERM...GJM AVIATION...GJM FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1044 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1040 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE THE PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING WHICH LIFTED DURING MID MORNING. OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK TODAY AS CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES DURING THE REST OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON FROM I-72 SOUTH WHERE LIKELY CHANCES CONTINUE. KILX 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.52 INCHES AND NAM FORECAST THESE VALUES TO INCREASE BETWEEN 1.50-2.25 INCHES DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM IL RIVER SOUTHEAST. SO THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS FROM IL RIVER SOUTHEAST. SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK EAST OF IL OVER IN/OH WHERE BETTER INSTABLITY WILL BE FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FROM WET MICROBURSTS. BUT MARGINAL RISK EXIST FROM ALONG THE IL RIVER SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM BILL OVER EASTERN OK WHERE 580 DM 500 MB LOW IS...WILL TRACK SLOWLY ENE INTO THE OZARKS OF NW AR BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND INCREASE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT INTO CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST IL THROUGH FRI NIGHT. TROPICAL HUMIDITY AGAIN TODAY WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY) ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 08Z/3AM RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. WITH MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL FLOWING NORTHEASTWARD AND A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE NORTHWEST KILX CWA TODAY...THINK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. 06Z NAM INDICATES FRONT WILL REACH A BLOOMINGTON TO RUSHVILLE LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON...ESSENTIALLY ENDING ANY RAIN CHANCES TO THE NORTH. FURTHER SOUTH...HIGHEST POPS APPEAR TO BE CONCENTRATED ON BOTH THE NAM AND HRRR ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF A CHAMPAIGN TO SPRINGFIELD LINE. .LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 MAIN FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE TRACK OF BILL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF THE KILX CWA. 00Z JUNE 18 MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT...SHOWING A FURTHER SOUTH TRACK AND A MORE COMPACT AREA OF ASSOCIATED PRECIP. MODEL CONSENSUS TAKES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING...TO THE OZARKS BY FRIDAY EVENING...THEN INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA BY SATURDAY. GIVEN THIS PARTICULAR TRACK...THE SOUTHEAST CWA WILL BE FAVORED FOR THE HEAVIEST RAIN FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. BASED ON MODEL TRENDS AND THE PRESENCE OF SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ON THE N/NW SIDE OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. HAVE FOCUSED LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70...WITH CHANCE POPS AS FAR NORTHWEST AS THE ILLINOIS RIVER. FURTHER NORTHWEST...HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST IN THE GALESBURG/LACON AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH UNSEASONABLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES...ANY STORMS THAT OCCUR DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. EXPECTED RAINFALL TOTALS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 2 TO 2.50 RANGE SOUTH OF I- 70...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE LIKELY. DESPITE EXPECTED HEAVY RAINFALL...OPTED NOT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME...MAINLY DUE TO THE FACT THAT THIS AREA MISSED THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL FROM A COUPLE DAYS AGO. THERE ARE ALSO SOME SIGNS THAT THE SYSTEM COULD TRACK EVEN FURTHER SOUTH...SHIFTING THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. ONCE BILL DEPARTS...LINGERING MORNING RAIN ACROSS THE E/SE WILL COME TO AN END BY MIDDAY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BOARD SATURDAY AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BRINGING RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE PICTURE. AFTER THAT...A VERY WARM AND OCCASIONALLY WET WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. AS WAS FIRST SEEN WITH THE GFS LAST NIGHT...LATEST ECMWF NOW ADVERTISES A WEAKER UPPER RIDGE NEXT WEEK...WHICH KEEPS THE PREVAILING BAROCLINIC ZONE IN OR CLOSE TO THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. HAVE INCLUDED LOW CHANCE POPS ACCORDINGLY. HAVE TEMPORARILY PUSHED POPS NORTH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AS RIDGE BECOMES MOST DOMINANT...BEFORE IT BREAKS DOWN AND FRONT SAGS BACK SOUTHWARD BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 AREAS OF LIFR/VLIFR ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY IMPROVE IN THE 12-14Z TIME FRAME AS MOST OF THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ONLY A VERY SHALLOW MOIST LAYER NEAR THE GROUND WITH DRIER AIR EXTENDING FROM 950 MB AND ABOVE. ONCE THAT OCCURS WE EXPECT SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN CIGS AT 3000-4500 FEET BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA...WE MAY SEE SOME WDLY SCATTERED TSRA THIS MORNING NEAR PIA AND BMI...AND THIS AFTN IN OUR TAF SITES TO THE SOUTH. AGAIN...WILL COVER WITH VCTS AND KEEP AN EYE ON THE RADAR FOR THE NORTHERN TAF LOCATIONS FOR THE MORNING ACTIVITY. WITH AS MUCH MOISTURE AS THERE IS IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE... WE MAY BE LOOKING AT SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG AGAIN TONIGHT SO WILL INTRODUCE THAT IN THIS SET OF TAFS. WINDS WILL BE MORE WESTERLY AT 8 TO 15 KTS WITH A TREND TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST OVER ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...07 SHORT TERM...BARNES LONG TERM...BARNES AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
600 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY) ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 08Z/3AM RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. WITH MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL FLOWING NORTHEASTWARD AND A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE NORTHWEST KILX CWA TODAY...THINK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. 06Z NAM INDICATES FRONT WILL REACH A BLOOMINGTON TO RUSHVILLE LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON...ESSENTIALLY ENDING ANY RAIN CHANCES TO THE NORTH. FURTHER SOUTH...HIGHEST POPS APPEAR TO BE CONCENTRATED ON BOTH THE NAM AND HRRR ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF A CHAMPAIGN TO SPRINGFIELD LINE. .LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 MAIN FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE TRACK OF BILL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF THE KILX CWA. 00Z JUNE 18 MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT...SHOWING A FURTHER SOUTH TRACK AND A MORE COMPACT AREA OF ASSOCIATED PRECIP. MODEL CONSENSUS TAKES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING...TO THE OZARKS BY FRIDAY EVENING...THEN INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA BY SATURDAY. GIVEN THIS PARTICULAR TRACK...THE SOUTHEAST CWA WILL BE FAVORED FOR THE HEAVIEST RAIN FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. BASED ON MODEL TRENDS AND THE PRESENCE OF SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ON THE N/NW SIDE OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. HAVE FOCUSED LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70...WITH CHANCE POPS AS FAR NORTHWEST AS THE ILLINOIS RIVER. FURTHER NORTHWEST...HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST IN THE GALESBURG/LACON AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH UNSEASONABLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES...ANY STORMS THAT OCCUR DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. EXPECTED RAINFALL TOTALS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 2 TO 2.50 RANGE SOUTH OF I- 70...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE LIKELY. DESPITE EXPECTED HEAVY RAINFALL...OPTED NOT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME...MAINLY DUE TO THE FACT THAT THIS AREA MISSED THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL FROM A COUPLE DAYS AGO. THERE ARE ALSO SOME SIGNS THAT THE SYSTEM COULD TRACK EVEN FURTHER SOUTH...SHIFTING THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. ONCE BILL DEPARTS...LINGERING MORNING RAIN ACROSS THE E/SE WILL COME TO AN END BY MIDDAY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BOARD SATURDAY AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BRINGING RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE PICTURE. AFTER THAT...A VERY WARM AND OCCASIONALLY WET WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. AS WAS FIRST SEEN WITH THE GFS LAST NIGHT...LATEST ECMWF NOW ADVERTISES A WEAKER UPPER RIDGE NEXT WEEK...WHICH KEEPS THE PREVAILING BAROCLINIC ZONE IN OR CLOSE TO THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. HAVE INCLUDED LOW CHANCE POPS ACCORDINGLY. HAVE TEMPORARILY PUSHED POPS NORTH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AS RIDGE BECOMES MOST DOMINANT...BEFORE IT BREAKS DOWN AND FRONT SAGS BACK SOUTHWARD BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 AREAS OF LIFR/VLIFR ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY IMPROVE IN THE 12-14Z TIME FRAME AS MOST OF THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ONLY A VERY SHALLOW MOIST LAYER NEAR THE GROUND WITH DRIER AIR EXTENDING FROM 950 MB AND ABOVE. ONCE THAT OCCURS WE EXPECT SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN CIGS AT 3000-4500 FEET BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA...WE MAY SEE SOME WDLY SCATTERED TSRA THIS MORNING NEAR PIA AND BMI...AND THIS AFTN IN OUR TAF SITES TO THE SOUTH. AGAIN...WILL COVER WITH VCTS AND KEEP AN EYE ON THE RADAR FOR THE NORTHERN TAF LOCATIONS FOR THE MORNING ACTIVITY. WITH AS MUCH MOISTURE AS THERE IS IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE... WE MAY BE LOOKING AT SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG AGAIN TONIGHT SO WILL INTRODUCE THAT IN THIS SET OF TAFS. WINDS WILL BE MORE WESTERLY AT 8 TO 15 KTS WITH A TREND TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST OVER ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BARNES LONG TERM...BARNES AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1048 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 .UPDATE... THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST...A FRONTAL SYSTEM LINGERING ACROSS THE MIDWEST...AND THE APPROACH OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE BILL COMBINE TO MAKE FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH DAY AND NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MOST CRITICAL OF THESE TIMES WILL BE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE BILL REMNANTS MOVE UP THE OHIO VALLEY...POTENTIALLY BRINGING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING TO THE AREA. && .NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/... ISSUED AT 1033 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 1400Z UPDATE...MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. MAINLY TO REMOVE POPS UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE SOUTH AS IS CURRENTLY BEING DEPICTED...AND THEN THIS WILL BEGIN TO FILL BACK IN AS THE PESKY BOUNDARY BEGINS TO DROP BACK SOUTHWARD AGAIN AND THIS TRIGGERS RENEWED DEVELOPMENT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEBATED ON WHETHER TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY BASED ON RECENT COOLER TRENDS...AND THE FACT CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL BE MOVING IN A FEW HOURS AS WELL. HOWEVER ULTIMATELY DECIDED THAT AS THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW PICKS UP THIS AFTERNOON AND BEGINS PUMPING EVEN WARMER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA...THIS IS USUALLY WHAT ENDS UP BUSTING FOR THE FORECASTER WHO CHOOSES TO DROP HIGH TEMPERATURES. MADE SOME OTHER MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO THE FORECAST BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND NEAR TERM GUIDANCE. UPDATED FORECAST ALREADY WENT OUT AROUND 945/1000 AM TIMEFRAME. AND THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... CONDITIONS ARE QUIET ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS MORNING WITH A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AT THE MOMENT FOR PRECIPITATION...BUT AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE BILL REMNANTS...AS WELL AS POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE LINGERING FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON...WILL NECESSITATE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CANNOT ARGUE WITH THE SLIGHT RISK FOR TODAY...BUT HYDRO CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE THE MORE PRESSING ISSUE. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SAVE FOR THE EXTREME NORTH AND NORTHEAST...AND THUS EXPECT ANY FLASH FLOOD THREAT TO BE VERY LOCALIZED TODAY. ON TEMPS...CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED SLIGHTLY TOO WARM GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS ON THE IMPACTS OF THE BILL REMNANTS WHICH APPEAR LIKELY TO MOVE UP THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND WILL FOCUS HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AS WELL AS INSERTING A HEAVY RAIN MENTION. A BIT EARLY FOR A FLOOD WATCH ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT THE AREA IN QUESTION HAS BEEN AMONG THE DRIEST AREAS IN THE STATE IN RECENT DAYS...BUT WILL ISSUE AN ESF TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT AS WELL AS CONTINUING TO MENTION IN OTHER VENUES. ON TEMPS...CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE WITH MINOR TWEAKS. PRECIP WILL HAVE EXTENSIVE IMPACTS ON MAX TEMPS ESPECIALLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 IN THE WAKE OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL...THE OHIO VALLEY WILL REMAIN IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN TO START THE WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS INTO THE REGION. EXPANSION OF A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL FORCE THE BOUNDARY BACK NORTH BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A TRANSITION TO HOTTER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT SCATTERED STORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND ENABLES A COLD FRONT TO SINK INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE PRESENCE OF THE FLATTENED RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL STALL THE BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING A SLOW RETURN NORTHWARD ON MONDAY AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES WITH EXPANSION OF THE HEAT DOME EAST OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. COULD BE AN INTERESTING COUPLE DAYS EARLY IN THE WEEK BEFORE THE RIDGE BECOMES MORE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED...AS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL RESIDE WITHIN A BAND OF FASTER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THE FLANK OF THE EXPANDING RIDGE. WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY IN THE AREA AS WELL... SETUP COULD SUPPORT PERIODIC CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS /RIDGE RIDERS/ WITH A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IMPACTING CENTRAL INDIANA. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT. DOES APPEAR THE FRONT WILL BE FORCED NORTH INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY AS THE CORE OF THE RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT CONVECTION RIDING AROUND THE RIDGE SNEAKS INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. A SHIFT TO HOTTER AND DRIER WEATHER STILL A LIKELY SCENARIO BY MIDWEEK FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS 850MB TEMPS SURGE ABOVE 20C WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 90S. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 181500Z TAF UPDATE/... ISSUED AT 1026 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 MVFR CEILINGS HAVE MOVED NORTHEAST OF KIND SO HAVE REMOVED THEM FROM TAF. CLOUDS AROUND 4500FT ARE QUICKLY DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTHWEST SO BROUGHT A BKN045 CEILING INTO KIND QUICKER THAN BEFORE. AM WATCHING RAINFALL DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST CLOSELY AND MAY HAVE TO GO MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN THIS AFTERNOON IF HRRR MODEL IS CORRECT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... MVFR AND LOWER CEILINGS WILL IMPACT ALL BUT KBMG THIS MORNING... THEN GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH EXCEPTION OF CONVECTION. STRATUS ENCOMPASSING MOST OF THE AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH CEILINGS FROM AS LOW AS 500FT TO AROUND 2000FT. RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH PROGS AT 950/975MB CAPTURING THIS NICELY WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A SHALLOW INVERSION. THE INVERSION SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY BY LATE MORNING WITH CEILINGS RECOVERING TO VFR AND MIXING OUT. INITIAL SURGE OF ENHANCED TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED INTO THE REGION FORM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE. THESE FEATURES COMBINED WITH THE MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL LIKELY GENERATE SCATTERED CONVECTION AFTER 18Z AND WILL PLACE VCTS MENTION AT ALL TERMINALS. ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SUB-IFR CONDITIONS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LIKELY TO BE A LULL IN PRECIP COVERAGE THIS EVENING AS INSTABILITY WANES WITH SUNSET. HI-RES GUIDANCE THOUGH BRINGS IN MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF INDIANA AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF THE REMNANTS OF BILL. THUNDER SHOULD BE LIMITED WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT. WILL REINTRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS AT ALL BUT KLAF AFTER 06Z WITH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT W/NW AS THE BOUNDARY SINKS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NIELD NEAR TERM...SMF SHORT TERM...NIELD LONG TERM...RYAN AVIATION...RYAN/50 VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1026 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 .UPDATE... THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST...A FRONTAL SYSTEM LINGERING ACROSS THE MIDWEST...AND THE APPROACH OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE BILL COMBINE TO MAKE FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH DAY AND NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MOST CRITICAL OF THESE TIMES WILL BE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE BILL REMNANTS MOVE UP THE OHIO VALLEY...POTENTIALLY BRINGING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING TO THE AREA. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 CONDITIONS ARE QUIET ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS MORNING WITH A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AT THE MOMENT FOR PRECIPITATION...BUT AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE BILL REMNANTS...AS WELL AS POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE LINGERING FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON...WILL NECESSITATE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CANNOT ARGUE WITH THE SLIGHT RISK FOR TODAY...BUT HYDRO CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE THE MORE PRESSING ISSUE. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SAVE FOR THE EXTREME NORTH AND NORTHEAST...AND THUS EXPECT ANY FLASH FLOOD THREAT TO BE VERY LOCALIZED TODAY. ON TEMPS...CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED SLIGHTLY TOO WARM GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS ON THE IMPACTS OF THE BILL REMNANTS WHICH APPEAR LIKELY TO MOVE UP THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND WILL FOCUS HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AS WELL AS INSERTING A HEAVY RAIN MENTION. A BIT EARLY FOR A FLOOD WATCH ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT THE AREA IN QUESTION HAS BEEN AMONG THE DRIEST AREAS IN THE STATE IN RECENT DAYS...BUT WILL ISSUE AN ESF TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT AS WELL AS CONTINUING TO MENTION IN OTHER VENUES. ON TEMPS...CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE WITH MINOR TWEAKS. PRECIP WILL HAVE EXTENSIVE IMPACTS ON MAX TEMPS ESPECIALLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 IN THE WAKE OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL...THE OHIO VALLEY WILL REMAIN IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN TO START THE WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS INTO THE REGION. EXPANSION OF A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL FORCE THE BOUNDARY BACK NORTH BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A TRANSITION TO HOTTER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT SCATTERED STORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND ENABLES A COLD FRONT TO SINK INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE PRESENCE OF THE FLATTENED RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL STALL THE BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING A SLOW RETURN NORTHWARD ON MONDAY AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES WITH EXPANSION OF THE HEAT DOME EAST OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. COULD BE AN INTERESTING COUPLE DAYS EARLY IN THE WEEK BEFORE THE RIDGE BECOMES MORE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED...AS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL RESIDE WITHIN A BAND OF FASTER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THE FLANK OF THE EXPANDING RIDGE. WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY IN THE AREA AS WELL... SETUP COULD SUPPORT PERIODIC CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS /RIDGE RIDERS/ WITH A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IMPACTING CENTRAL INDIANA. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT. DOES APPEAR THE FRONT WILL BE FORCED NORTH INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY AS THE CORE OF THE RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT CONVECTION RIDING AROUND THE RIDGE SNEAKS INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. A SHIFT TO HOTTER AND DRIER WEATHER STILL A LIKELY SCENARIO BY MIDWEEK FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS 850MB TEMPS SURGE ABOVE 20C WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 90S. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 181500Z TAF UPDATE/... ISSUED AT 1026 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 MVFR CEILINGS HAVE MOVED NORTHEAST OF KIND SO HAVE REMOVED THEM FROM TAF. CLOUDS AROUND 4500FT ARE QUICKLY DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTHWEST SO BROUGHT A BKN045 CEILING INTO KIND QUICKER THAN BEFORE. AM WATCHING RAINFALL DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST CLOSELY AND MAY HAVE TO GO MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN THIS AFTERNOON IF HRRR MODEL IS CORRECT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... MVFR AND LOWER CEILINGS WILL IMPACT ALL BUT KBMG THIS MORNING... THEN GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH EXCEPTION OF CONVECTION. STRATUS ENCOMPASSING MOST OF THE AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH CEILINGS FROM AS LOW AS 500FT TO AROUND 2000FT. RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH PROGS AT 950/975MB CAPTURING THIS NICELY WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A SHALLOW INVERSION. THE INVERSION SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY BY LATE MORNING WITH CEILINGS RECOVERING TO VFR AND MIXING OUT. INITIAL SURGE OF ENHANCED TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED INTO THE REGION FORM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE. THESE FEATURES COMBINED WITH THE MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL LIKELY GENERATE SCATTERED CONVECTION AFTER 18Z AND WILL PLACE VCTS MENTION AT ALL TERMINALS. ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SUB-IFR CONDITIONS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LIKELY TO BE A LULL IN PRECIP COVERAGE THIS EVENING AS INSTABILITY WANES WITH SUNSET. HI-RES GUIDANCE THOUGH BRINGS IN MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF INDIANA AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF THE REMNANTS OF BILL. THUNDER SHOULD BE LIMITED WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT. WILL REINTRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS AT ALL BUT KLAF AFTER 06Z WITH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT W/NW AS THE BOUNDARY SINKS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NIELD NEAR TERM...NIELD SHORT TERM...NIELD LONG TERM...RYAN AVIATION...RYAN/50 VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
619 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 .UPDATE... THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST...A FRONTAL SYSTEM LINGERING ACROSS THE MIDWEST...AND THE APPROACH OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE BILL COMBINE TO MAKE FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH DAY AND NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MOST CRITICAL OF THESE TIMES WILL BE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE BILL REMNANTS MOVE UP THE OHIO VALLEY...POTENTIALLY BRINGING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING TO THE AREA. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 CONDITIONS ARE QUIET ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS MORNING WITH A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AT THE MOMENT FOR PRECIPITATION...BUT AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE BILL REMNANTS...AS WELL AS POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE LINGERING FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON...WILL NECESSITATE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CANNOT ARGUE WITH THE SLIGHT RISK FOR TODAY...BUT HYDRO CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE THE MORE PRESSING ISSUE. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SAVE FOR THE EXTREME NORTH AND NORTHEAST...AND THUS EXPECT ANY FLASH FLOOD THREAT TO BE VERY LOCALIZED TODAY. ON TEMPS...CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED SLIGHTLY TOO WARM GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS ON THE IMPACTS OF THE BILL REMNANTS WHICH APPEAR LIKELY TO MOVE UP THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND WILL FOCUS HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AS WELL AS INSERTING A HEAVY RAIN MENTION. A BIT EARLY FOR A FLOOD WATCH ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT THE AREA IN QUESTION HAS BEEN AMONG THE DRIEST AREAS IN THE STATE IN RECENT DAYS...BUT WILL ISSUE AN ESF TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT AS WELL AS CONTINUING TO MENTION IN OTHER VENUES. ON TEMPS...CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE WITH MINOR TWEAKS. PRECIP WILL HAVE EXTENSIVE IMPACTS ON MAX TEMPS ESPECIALLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 IN THE WAKE OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL...THE OHIO VALLEY WILL REMAIN IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN TO START THE WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS INTO THE REGION. EXPANSION OF A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL FORCE THE BOUNDARY BACK NORTH BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A TRANSITION TO HOTTER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT SCATTERED STORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND ENABLES A COLD FRONT TO SINK INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE PRESENCE OF THE FLATTENED RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL STALL THE BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING A SLOW RETURN NORTHWARD ON MONDAY AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES WITH EXPANSION OF THE HEAT DOME EAST OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. COULD BE AN INTERESTING COUPLE DAYS EARLY IN THE WEEK BEFORE THE RIDGE BECOMES MORE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED...AS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL RESIDE WITHIN A BAND OF FASTER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THE FLANK OF THE EXPANDING RIDGE. WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY IN THE AREA AS WELL... SETUP COULD SUPPORT PERIODIC CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS /RIDGE RIDERS/ WITH A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IMPACTING CENTRAL INDIANA. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT. DOES APPEAR THE FRONT WILL BE FORCED NORTH INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY AS THE CORE OF THE RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT CONVECTION RIDING AROUND THE RIDGE SNEAKS INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. A SHIFT TO HOTTER AND DRIER WEATHER STILL A LIKELY SCENARIO BY MIDWEEK FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS 850MB TEMPS SURGE ABOVE 20C WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 90S. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 181200Z TAF ISSUANCE/... ISSUED AT 619 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 MVFR AND LOWER CEILINGS WILL IMPACT ALL BUT KBMG THIS MORNING... THEN GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH EXCEPTION OF CONVECTION. STRATUS ENCOMPASSING MOST OF THE AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH CEILINGS FROM AS LOW AS 500FT TO AROUND 2000FT. RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH PROGS AT 950/975MB CAPTURING THIS NICELY WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A SHALLOW INVERSION. THE INVERSION SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY BY LATE MORNING WITH CEILINGS RECOVERING TO VFR AND MIXING OUT. INITIAL SURGE OF ENHANCED TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED INTO THE REGION FORM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE. THESE FEATURES COMBINED WITH THE MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL LIKELY GENERATE SCATTERED CONVECTION AFTER 18Z AND WILL PLACE VCTS MENTION AT ALL TERMINALS. ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SUB-IFR CONDITIONS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LIKELY TO BE A LULL IN PRECIP COVERAGE THIS EVENING AS INSTABILITY WANES WITH SUNSET. HI-RES GUIDANCE THOUGH BRINGS IN MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF INDIANA AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF THE REMNANTS OF BILL. THUNDER SHOULD BE LIMITED WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT. WILL REINTRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS AT ALL BUT KLAF AFTER 06Z WITH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT W/NW AS THE BOUNDARY SINKS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NIELD NEAR TERM...NIELD SHORT TERM...NIELD LONG TERM...RYAN AVIATION...RYAN VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
609 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2015 ...UPDATED... .UPDATE... Issued at 609 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 The 06Z models and latest HRRR/RAP continue to show the MCS over NEB holding together long enough to move into at least northern portions of the forecast area. From the surface OBs behind the line of storms, it looks like a fairly decent cold pool has formed with pressure rises of about 4 MB. Therefore will be updating the forecast to increase POPs across the northern counties. There is still some question as to whether it will make it as far south as I-70. Nevertheless there may be a remnant boundary that could aid afternoon development. Will need to keep an eye on this. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 300 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 The weather pattern has changed very little over the last 24 hrs as 08Z water vapor shows the remnants of bill over southern OK with the mean westerlies over the northern tier of the country. One difference however is the morning MCS moving through the NEB panhandle is a little later in the morning, having developed over MT and WY. Surface obs put the center of Bill over the red river valley while a broad area of high pressure moves into the upper Midwest. The forecast for today and tonight is pretty similar to yesterday. The RAP/HRRR/ARW/NMM show the MCS approaching north central KS by the late morning hours. Not sure if it will hold together long enough to reach the forecast area, but the hi resolution models show a weak boundary moving into northern KS by the afternoon which could help some isolated to scattered storms form in the heat of the day. Deep layer shear once again is relatively weak with some reasonable instability. Therefore I would anticipate convection to behave like ordinary cells, popping up and falling apart without much organization to their updrafts. Held onto small POPs through the afternoon across the northern counties thinking the airmass will remain somewhat unstable until the boundary layer begins cooling. If the MCS hold together and mows into northern KS, the cold pool may stabilize the airmass for the afternoon. The day shift can monitor trends. Otherwise, Bill should remain to the south and east of the forecast area. Have some chance POPs across Anderson county as some of the precip could sneak into the county and this matches up with neighboring offices. With the boundary layer stabilizing this evening and Bill progged to drift east into AR and southern MO, think precip chances will diminish through the evening. Think that highs should be pretty similar to yesterday`s. There may be some weak cold air advection from northeast surface winds. However decent insolation over north central and northeast KS should offset this. Lows tonight should once again fall into the mid and upper 60s. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 300 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 Upper flow pattern remains persistent in guidance with the remnants of Tropical Storm Bill gradually lifting north and east over MO Friday. Track of the upper low a bit further east in reference to far east central areas of the CWA suggested precipitation will remain east of the CWA. Therefore pops were removed for this period. Mid level westerlies become the predominant pattern for the remainder of the period with a series of weak waves passing near the area. The first on Saturday was progged to dip southward across the central plains as an associated frontal boundary sags southward into the CWA. Some weak low level forcing will persist near the boundary during the late afternoon where surface CAPE increases over 2000 J/KG. However low level forcing appears inhibited by the stout capping inversion in place at 750 MB, in addition to the upper level support shifting further east by most guidance. Therefore have removed the mention of thunderstorms during the day Saturday. By Saturday evening, the sfc boundary stalls near the Nebraska border where a series of weak shortwave troughs from the northwest bring scattered thunderstorm chances to areas mainly north of Interstate 70. This activity will persist through Sunday evening before the boundary washes out. Dry conditions return through Wednesday as the upper storm systems shift further north with ridging developing over the southern CONUS. Heat and humidity is expected to persist through the extended period. In the near term, Saturday afternoon will be the warmest afternoon as h85 temps to the middle 20s. Thermal ridge axis similarly builds over north central KS where slightly deeper mixing from 800 MB would advect highs to the middle and upper 90s. Low to middle 90s will be seen elsewhere. The combination of dewpoints in the 70s should raise heat index readings between 101 to as high as 108 degrees across northeast KS. High temps are slightly cooler through Wednesday in the lower 90s, but would not be surprised to see heat indices reach 100 degrees again across north central KS. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Friday Morning) Issued at 609 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 I have no clue why FOE is VV001. Was thinking high clouds would limit radiational cooling, which has been the case at every other OB. In any case, RAP forecast soundings show the boundary layer mixing out around 14Z again. So I expect improving conditions shortly. Will add a VCTS to the terminals in part to account for the MCS moving southeast, but also for any outflow that is layer out that could focus new development this afternoon. I think VFR conditions should prevail once the boundary layer mixes out. Forecast confidence is marginal. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Wolters SHORT TERM...Wolters LONG TERM...Bowen AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1000 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1000 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 LATEST SATELLITE AND OBS SUGGEST MUCH OF THE FOG SEEN THIS MORNING HAS BURNT OFF. OTHERWISE MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING ACROSS PORTION OF EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE THIS MORNING. CONVECTIVE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY AFTER 17Z. GIVEN NO MAJOR SYNOPTIC BOUNDARIES THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MUCH LIKE IT HAS BEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH MORE OF A INFLUENCE FROM MESOSCALE FEATURES AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVES. UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INPUT THE LATEST OBS INTO THE GRIDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE NOT BEGUN TO DEVELOP YET THIS MORNING DESPITE THE HRRR HINTING AT DEVELOPMENT BY 12Z. DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST AS IS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE MORNING AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND A NEW ZFP WILL NOT BE NEEDED. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE EASTERN KENTUCKY UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH ALONG THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS PUTS EAST KENTUCKY IN A VERY HOT AND MUGGY TROPICAL AIRMASS. THIS SITUATION WILL MAKE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...A WAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY WILL BEGIN TO PUSH A SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY. THIS ADDED FORCING WILL ADD TO THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A GREAT DEAL OF AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WITH A RATHER SLOW STORM MOTION. HENCE WILL KEEP A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT THROUGH TODAY AS WELL. WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS TO THE NORTH...ANY SEVERE THREAT FOR TODAY WILL BE NORTH OF I-64 WITH A MARGINAL THREAT TO THE SOUTH. HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE MENTIONED COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GOING INTO TONIGHT MAINTAINING GOOD INSTABILITY. HEADING INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY...THE REMNANTS OF BILL EDGE CLOSER TO THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY AS SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BEGINS TO ENTER THE AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO AID SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN AN ALREADY MOISTURE LADEN AND WARM AIRMASS. THE SHORT TERM PERIOD APPEARS TO FEATURE A CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCTION AND RATHER SLOW STORM MOTION. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A FLASH FLOOD THREAT IN THE HWO. AS WELL...ANY SEVERE POSSIBILITY WILL BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY STRONG CELL THAT DEVELOPS. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN EARLY IN THE PERIOD. LATEST MODEL TRENDS INDICATE A TRACK ALONG OR JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. THIS WOULD KEEP OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN THE ARC OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED PRETTY MUCH ANYWHERE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY... ESPECIALLY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LEFTOVER SURFACE LOW TRACKS BY. CONSIDERING THE RECENT DRY SPELL AND THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM...WE CURRENTLY THINK THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IS LOW. HOWEVER...TRAINING STORMS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. AS BILL WEAKENS FURTHER AND SHIFTS TO OUR EAST ON SUNDAY...A NEW FORECAST CHALLENGE AWAITS. A STOUT UPPER RIDGE WILL HAVE RELOCATED TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY AND THIS PLACES THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FORECAST MODELS HAVE SHOWN AND CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG SIGNAL FOR MCS ACTIVITY TO ORIGINATE SOMEWHERE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND/OR OHIO VALLEY AND TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA. THE TIMING OF THESE COMPLEXES IS INHERENTLY DIFFICULT THIS FAR OUT...HOWEVER A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...AND THIS WOULD INCLUDE NOCTURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE PRIMARY THREAT AREA FOR THESE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD. FINALLY...NO RELIEF FROM THE VERY HUMID CONDITIONS IS IN SIGHT. IN FACT...EVEN HOTTER TEMPERATURES THAN WE HAVE WITNESSED IN RECENT DAYS ARE LIKELY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. OUR CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES HIGHS SURGING INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S BY WEDNESDAY...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES CLIMBING TOWARDS 100. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 654 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 MOST AREAS THIS MORNING HAVE SOME REDUCTION IN VIS AND CIGS DUE TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT HAS HINDERED FOG DEVELOPMENT AT SOME OF THE TAF SITES. ALL FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE KEPT VCTS AT THE TAF SITES TO COVER FOR THIS. EXPECT FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DJ SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
655 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INPUT THE LATEST OBS INTO THE GRIDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE NOT BEGUN TO DEVELOP YET THIS MORNING DESPITE THE HRRR HINTING AT DEVELOPMENT BY 12Z. DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST AS IS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE MORNING AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND A NEW ZFP WILL NOT BE NEEDED. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE EASTERN KENTUCKY UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH ALONG THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS PUTS EAST KENTUCKY IN A VERY HOT AND MUGGY TROPICAL AIRMASS. THIS SITUATION WILL MAKE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...A WAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY WILL BEGIN TO PUSH A SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY. THIS ADDED FORCING WILL ADD TO THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A GREAT DEAL OF AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WITH A RATHER SLOW STORM MOTION. HENCE WILL KEEP A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT THROUGH TODAY AS WELL. WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS TO THE NORTH...ANY SEVERE THREAT FOR TODAY WILL BE NORTH OF I-64 WITH A MARGINAL THREAT TO THE SOUTH. HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE MENTIONED COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GOING INTO TONIGHT MAINTAINING GOOD INSTABILITY. HEADING INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY...THE REMNANTS OF BILL EDGE CLOSER TO THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY AS SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BEGINS TO ENTER THE AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO AID SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN AN ALREADY MOISTURE LADEN AND WARM AIRMASS. THE SHORT TERM PERIOD APPEARS TO FEATURE A CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCTION AND RATHER SLOW STORM MOTION. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A FLASH FLOOD THREAT IN THE HWO. AS WELL...ANY SEVERE POSSIBILITY WILL BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY STRONG CELL THAT DEVELOPS. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN EARLY IN THE PERIOD. LATEST MODEL TRENDS INDICATE A TRACK ALONG OR JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. THIS WOULD KEEP OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN THE ARC OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED PRETTY MUCH ANYWHERE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY... ESPECIALLY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LEFTOVER SURFACE LOW TRACKS BY. CONSIDERING THE RECENT DRY SPELL AND THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM...WE CURRENTLY THINK THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IS LOW. HOWEVER...TRAINING STORMS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. AS BILL WEAKENS FURTHER AND SHIFTS TO OUR EAST ON SUNDAY...A NEW FORECAST CHALLENGE AWAITS. A STOUT UPPER RIDGE WILL HAVE RELOCATED TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY AND THIS PLACES THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FORECAST MODELS HAVE SHOWN AND CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG SIGNAL FOR MCS ACTIVITY TO ORIGINATE SOMEWHERE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND/OR OHIO VALLEY AND TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA. THE TIMING OF THESE COMPLEXES IS INHERENTLY DIFFICULT THIS FAR OUT...HOWEVER A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...AND THIS WOULD INCLUDE NOCTURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE PRIMARY THREAT AREA FOR THESE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD. FINALLY...NO RELIEF FROM THE VERY HUMID CONDITIONS IS IN SIGHT. IN FACT...EVEN HOTTER TEMPERATURES THAN WE HAVE WITNESSED IN RECENT DAYS ARE LIKELY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. OUR CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES HIGHS SURGING INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S BY WEDNESDAY...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES CLIMBING TOWARDS 100. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 654 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 MOST AREAS THIS MORNING HAVE SOME REDUCTION IN VIS AND CIGS DUE TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT HAS HINDERED FOG DEVELOPMENT AT SOME OF THE TAF SITES. ALL FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE KEPT VCTS AT THE TAF SITES TO COVER FOR THIS. EXPECT FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1051 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 .UPDATE... TWEAK POPS/WX AND A FEW HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE AFTERNOON. && .DISCUSSION... THE KSHV 88D IS SHOWING RAIN AREAS WINDING DOWN OVER THE LAST HOUR WHICH IS TYPICAL WITH LOSS OF THE OVERNIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW...BUT WITH HEATING JUST ABOUT TO KICK IN GEAR WITH MORE AND MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...COVERAGE MAY RAMP AGAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS RUN THROUGH 1730Z AND THE HEAVIER ELEMENTS ARE FADING AWAY WHICH IS GOOD NEWS AS PREVIOUS RUN OFF FROM THIS MORNING IS ALREADY IMPROVED. THERE ARE TWO NEW AREAS ALREADY GUSTING OUT A BIT INTO WARMER AREAS FROM BROADDUS TO NEAR JOAQUIN IN TX AND FROM RED RIVER MARINA SOUTH...TO NEAR MINDEN AND COTTON VALLEY IN LA. OTHER STEAMERS OF SHOWERS ARE LINING UP ALONG I-30...BUT ARE NOT AS MENACING RAINWISE. MEANWHILE...THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF BILL ARE OVER SE OK NEAR MCALESTER AND POINTS JUST NORTH. LAST HOUR OBS SHOWED A GUST TO 28 KTS AT IDABEL AND 27 KTS AT TEXARKANA LAST HOUR...SO WE LEFT UP THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY. ONCE THE AFTERNOON HEATING UNCERTAINTY IS REALIZED WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT IT IS LIKELY THAT SOME OR EVEN PERHAPS MUCH OF THE FLOOD WATCH MAY BE CANCELLED AND THE LAKE WIND ADV IF BILL LIFTS QUICKER TO THE NE...BOTH COULD BE LET GO A LITTLE EARLY WITH THE NEXT ISSUANCE AT 4 PM. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015/ .AVIATION... SHWRS/TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE PD. LOW CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VC OF ANY CONVECTION...BUT OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS FROM ABOUT MID MORNING TODAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT SLY WINDS SUSTAINED AT AROUND 12-18 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PD. /12/ PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015/ DISCUSSION... THE REMNANTS OF BILL IS RIGHT OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF LAKE TEXOMA WITH SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF TO OCCUR TODAY WITH WRAP AROUND ACTIVITY STILL IN PROGRESS. THE LAKE LEVEL IS ONLY ABOUT A FOOT FROM THE SPILLWAY AND ANOTHER CREST WILL BE DETERMINED AND WORKING DOWN STREAM AS RELEASES MAY BE ENHANCED BY ANOTHER SPILL. BILL IS SLOWLY MOVING NNE AT 10 MPH PER THE LATEST WPC ADVISORY. WINDS ARE ONLY 25 MPH SUSTAINED...BUT EFFECTIVELY WRAPPING UP THE MOIST TROPICAL CONNECTION THAT IS DRAPED AROUND OVER THE ARKLATEX INTO THE COASTAL BEND. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT...BUT APPEAR TO LACK FOCUS CONSIDERING THE RADAR TRENDS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE HRRR IS LOOKING GOOD TO START WITH RAPID REFRESH AND WEAKENS THE CURRENT FOCUS AND REDEVELOPS LATER THIS MORNING FROM SOUTH OF TYLER...TO NEAR TEXARKANA. EITHER WAY...HEATING WILL BE A PLAYER AND EVEN THE HRRR MAY BE OFF AS CURRENT ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY GUST OUT INTO THE WARMER AREAS. RECOVERY OF RAIN AREAS WILL BE MUCH QUICKER THAN NORMAL WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LIKELY FOR ALMOST ANYWHERE WITH MODEST CAPE IN THIS SUPER RICH TROPICAL CONNECTION THAT IS FUNNELING IN OVER THE AREA. THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS A DRY SLOT OF AIR THAT IS ESTABLISHED OVER SE OK WHICH COULD BE A BACK EDGE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE CIRCULATION SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD...BUT THE WRAP AROUND MAY KEEP TO OUR NORTH. ALSO TO NOTE...IS A LARGE DRY AIR PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF UNDER THE BERMUDA RIDGE WITH A RESULTING SHARP SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND UP TO NEAR MEMPHIS. THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION WITH ALL THE HIGH WATER IS PLACE...RECENT RAINFALL...WHAT IS ON RADAR NOW AND WHAT WILL LIKELY BE DEVELOPING WITH EVEN LIMITED HEATING. THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED FOR THE ENTIRE FOUR STATE AREA UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS COULD EVEN BE NEEDED BEYOND THAT TIME DEPENDING ON PROGRESSION OF BILL AND THE TROPICAL CONNECTION LOCATIONS TOWARD SUNDOWN. BILLS CORE WILL KEEP ACTIVITY TIGHT TONIGHT AND THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR THE SHEAR AXIS TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA TO SOME DEGREE OVERNIGHT. WE COULD SEE RAIN TOTALS TODAY AND OVERALL EVENT TOTALS GIVE US A VERY WET MONTH DESPITE THE DRY START. THIS ALONG WITH A VERY SWOLLEN SYSTEM OF LAKES...BAYOUS...RIVERS AND BACKWATER INTO THE EARLY PART OF SUMMER. /24/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 84 75 90 75 / 80 30 30 10 MLU 87 75 91 74 / 60 20 30 10 DEQ 80 72 85 72 / 80 80 40 20 TXK 84 74 89 75 / 80 60 40 20 ELD 85 74 88 74 / 80 40 40 20 TYR 85 74 89 74 / 70 40 30 10 GGG 85 75 90 74 / 60 40 30 10 LFK 86 75 90 74 / 80 20 40 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051- 059>061-070>073. LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051- 059-060-070. LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006- 010>014-017>022. OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077. LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077. TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097- 108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097- 108>112-124>126-136>138. && $$ 24/12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
626 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 .DISCUSSION... SHWRS/TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE PD. LOW CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VC OF ANY CONVECTION...BUT OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS FROM ABOUT MID MORNING TODAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT SLY WINDS SUSTAINED AT AROUND 12-18 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PD. /12/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015/ DISCUSSION... THE REMNANTS OF BILL IS RIGHT OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF LAKE TEXOMA WITH SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF TO OCCUR TODAY WITH WRAP AROUND ACTIVITY STILL IN PROGRESS. THE LAKE LEVEL IS ONLY ABOUT A FOOT FROM THE SPILLWAY AND ANOTHER CREST WILL BE DETERMINED AND WORKING DOWN STREAM AS RELEASES MAY BE ENHANCED BY ANOTHER SPILL. BILL IS SLOWLY MOVING NNE AT 10 MPH PER THE LATEST WPC ADVISORY. WINDS ARE ONLY 25 MPH SUSTAINED...BUT EFFECTIVELY WRAPPING UP THE MOIST TROPICAL CONNECTION THAT IS DRAPED AROUND OVER THE ARKLATEX INTO THE COASTAL BEND. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT...BUT APPEAR TO LACK FOCUS CONSIDERING THE RADAR TRENDS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE HRRR IS LOOKING GOOD TO START WITH RAPID REFRESH AND WEAKENS THE CURRENT FOCUS AND REDEVELOPS LATER THIS MORNING FROM SOUTH OF TYLER...TO NEAR TEXARKANA. EITHER WAY...HEATING WILL BE A PLAYER AND EVEN THE HRRR MAY BE OFF AS CURRENT ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY GUST OUT INTO THE WARMER AREAS. RECOVERY OF RAIN AREAS WILL BE MUCH QUICKER THAN NORMAL WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LIKELY FOR ALMOST ANYWHERE WITH MODEST CAPE IN THIS SUPER RICH TROPICAL CONNECTION THAT IS FUNNELING IN OVER THE AREA. THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS A DRY SLOT OF AIR THAT IS ESTABLISHED OVER SE OK WHICH COULD BE A BACK EDGE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE CIRCULATION SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD...BUT THE WRAP AROUND MAY KEEP TO OUR NORTH. ALSO TO NOTE...IS A LARGE DRY AIR PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF UNDER THE BERMUDA RIDGE WITH A RESULTING SHARP SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND UP TO NEAR MEMPHIS. THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION WITH ALL THE HIGH WATER IS PLACE...RECENT RAINFALL...WHAT IS ON RADAR NOW AND WHAT WILL LIKELY BE DEVELOPING WITH EVEN LIMITED HEATING. THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED FOR THE ENTIRE FOUR STATE AREA UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS COULD EVEN BE NEEDED BEYOND THAT TIME DEPENDING ON PROGRESSION OF BILL AND THE TROPICAL CONNECTION LOCATIONS TOWARD SUNDOWN. BILLS CORE WILL KEEP ACTIVITY TIGHT TONIGHT AND THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR THE SHEAR AXIS TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA TO SOME DEGREE OVERNIGHT. WE COULD SEE RAIN TOTALS TODAY AND OVERALL EVENT TOTALS GIVE US A VERY WET MONTH DESPITE THE DRY START. THIS ALONG WITH A VERY SWOLLEN SYSTEM OF LAKES...BAYOUS...RIVERS AND BACKWATER INTO THE EARLY PART OF SUMMER. /24/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 84 75 90 75 / 80 30 30 10 MLU 87 75 91 74 / 30 20 30 10 DEQ 80 72 85 72 / 80 80 40 20 TXK 84 74 89 75 / 70 60 40 20 ELD 85 74 88 74 / 50 40 40 20 TYR 85 74 89 74 / 70 40 30 10 GGG 85 75 90 74 / 60 40 30 10 LFK 86 75 90 74 / 80 20 40 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061- 070>073. LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051- 059-060-070. LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014- 017>022. OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077. LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077. TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112- 124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097- 108>112-124>126-136>138. && $$ 12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
520 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 .DISCUSSION... THE REMNANTS OF BILL IS RIGHT OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF LAKE TEXOMA WITH SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF TO OCCUR TODAY WITH WRAP AROUND ACTIVITY STILL IN PROGRESS. THE LAKE LEVEL IS ONLY ABOUT A FOOT FROM THE SPILLWAY AND ANOTHER CREST WILL BE DETERMINED AND WORKING DOWN STREAM AS RELEASES MAY BE ENHANCED BY ANOTHER SPILL. BILL IS SLOWLY MOVING NNE AT 10 MPH PER THE LATEST WPC ADVISORY. WINDS ARE ONLY 25 MPH SUSTAINED...BUT EFFECTIVELY WRAPPING UP THE MOIST TROPICAL CONNECTION THAT IS DRAPED AROUND OVER THE ARKLATEX INTO THE COASTAL BEND. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT...BUT APPEAR TO LACK FOCUS CONSIDERING THE RADAR TRENDS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE HRRR IS LOOKING GOOD TO START WITH RAPID REFRESH AND WEAKENS THE CURRENT FOCUS AND REDEVELOPS LATER THIS MORNING FROM SOUTH OF TYLER...TO NEAR TEXARKANA. EITHERWAY...HEATING WILL BE A PLAYER AND EVEN THE HRRR MAY BE OFF AS CURRENT ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY GUST OUT INTO THE WARMER AREAS. RECOVERY OF RAIN AREAS WILL BE MUCH QUICKER THAN NORMAL WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LIKELY FOR ALMOST ANYWHERE WITH MODEST CAPE IN THIS SUPER RICH TROPICAL CONNECTION THAT IS FUNNELING IN OVER THE AREA. THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS A DRY SLOT OF AIR THAT IS ESTABLISHED OVER SE OK WHICH COULD BE A BACK EDGE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE CIRCULATION SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD...BUT THE WRAP AROUND MAY KEEP TO OUR NORTH. ALSO TO NOTE...IS A LARGE DRY AIR PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF UNDER THE BERMUDA RIDGE WITH A RESULTING SHARP SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND UP TO NEAR MEMPHIS. THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION WITH ALL THE HIGH WATER IS PLACE...RECENT RAINFALL...WHAT IS ON RADAR NOW AND WHAT WILL LIKELY BE DEVELOPING WITH EVEN LIMITED HEATING. THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED FOR THE ENTIRE FOUR STATE AREA UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS COULD EVEN BE NEEDED BEYOND THAT TIME DEPENDING ON PROGRESSION OF BILL AND THE TROPICAL CONNECTION LOCATIONS TOWARD SUNDOWN. BILLS CORE WILL KEEP ACTIVITY TIGHT TONIGHT AND THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR THE SHEAR AXIS TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA TO SOME DEGREE OVERNIGHT. WE COULD SEE RAIN TOTALS TODAY AND OVERALL EVENT TOTALS GIVE US A VERY WET MONTH DESPITE THE DRY START. THIS ALONG WITH A VERY SWOLLEN SYSTEM OF LAKES...BAYOUS...RIVERS AND BACKWATER INTO THE EARLY PART OF SUMMER. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 84 75 90 75 / 80 30 30 10 MLU 87 75 91 74 / 30 20 30 10 DEQ 80 72 85 72 / 80 80 40 20 TXK 84 74 89 75 / 70 60 40 20 ELD 85 74 88 74 / 50 40 40 20 TYR 85 74 89 74 / 70 40 30 10 GGG 85 75 90 74 / 60 40 30 10 LFK 86 75 90 74 / 80 20 40 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061- 070>073. LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051- 059-060-070. LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014- 017>022. OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077. LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077. TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112- 124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097- 108>112-124>126-136>138. && $$ 24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
1105 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1105 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 ...SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TODAY... OVERVIEW: PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW ADVANCING ACROSS ONTARIO INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES REGION. ATTENDING SFC LOW ANALYZED ACROSS QUEBEC WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT STRETCHING DOWN INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND ON INTO EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. STRONGEST SYNOPTIC FORCING IS OCCURRING ACROSS EASTERN ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE. BUT WE ARE SEEING A NICE NARROW AXIS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WHICH HAS KICKED OFF A NARROW CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS IN EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. PER SPC MESO ANALYSIS...INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION IS PALTRY. NONETHELESS...PLUME OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING (SEEN ON APX 12Z SOUNDING) APPARENTLY ENOUGH TO GET SOME THUNDER ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. REST OF TODAY...SFC COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN RATHER QUICKLY TODAY. GIVEN THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND SOME DECENT HEATING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...I DO EXPECT TO SEE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN AS WE GO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HAVE REVAMPED POPS/TIMING TO REFLECT THAT THINKING WITH CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...TRANSLATING DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...SEVERAL HOURS OF HEATING SHOULD BE ABLE TO PUSH MLCAPE VALUES UP TO AROUND 500 J/KG ACROSS THE E/SE PART OF THE CWA. NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT WITH AROUND 50 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SPEED SHEARS SITTING ACROSS THE REGION...COULD GET SOME BETTER ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS AND STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. AGAIN...BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE E/SE PART OF THE CWA BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. && .NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 SURFACE RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED EAST OF MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...AS A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER ONTARIO AND MINNESOTA BEGINS TO MAKE A MOVE TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION. ONLY PRECIP TO SPEAK OF ATTM REMAINS UPSTREAM OF OUR CWA OVER UPPER MICHIGAN PER KMQT BASE REF IMAGES...DEVELOPING WITHIN AN AREA OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LACK OF INSTABILITY HAS PRECLUDED ANY THUNDER WITHIN THIS BKN LINE OF SHOWERS. PRIMARY FORECASTS CONCERN FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT ARE POPS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER AS THIS FRONT MOVES THRU OUR CWA. BOTH THE NAM AND THE RAP DEVELOP A WEAK WAVE OVER WISCONSIN THIS MORNING ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...PULLING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS A WEAK INSTABILITY AXIS PUSHES NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN TODAY. MUCAPES INCREASE TO AROUND 750 TO 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SE SECTIONS OF OUR CWA...MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM APN TO HTL. THIS IS WHERE OUR GREATEST POPS AND BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL RESIDE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THANKS TO FROPA DURING MAX DIURNAL HEATING/INSTABILITY. ALSO...SOME DESCENT SPEED SHEAR WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THIS AREA BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...FURTHER SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER DEVELOPMENT. LATEST SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS OUR SE CWA FOR A MARGINAL CHANCE OF SVR STORMS...WHICH IS REASONABLE GIVEN THE ABOVE SCENARIO. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND EXTENDED POPS INTO THE EVENING HOURS BASED ON LATEST FROPA PROJECTIONS. HAVE ALSO INCREASED CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR OUR SE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW LEVEL CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL LEND TO A LARGER SPREAD OF TEMPS TODAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S IN ERN UPR MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 70S IN OUR FAR SE CWA. && .SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE. PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: FAST MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME SHOWING NO SIGNS OF SLOWING DOWN ANYTIME IN THE NEAR FUTURE...WITH NORTHERN MICHIGAN SQUARELY CENTERED BETWEEN BROAD SOUTHERN RIDGING AND DEEP TROUGHING ROTATING AROUND THE CANADIAN ARCTIC. FAST MOVING...HARD TO TIME...WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE OVERHEAD...ALTHOUGH STILL APPEARS DISCONNECT WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN THEM AND MUCH DEEPER INSTABILITY/MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. WHILE THIS MAY PREVENT A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL FOR OUR NECK OF THE WOODS...PASSING WAVES WORKING ON A MODESTLY MOST ENVIRONMENT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES AS WE HEAD INTO THE BEGINNING OF THIS WEEKEND. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: ADDRESSING SATURDAY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. DETAILS: WORK WEEK ENDS ON A QUIET NOTE AS HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER...DESPITE SLOWLY PASSING OFF TO THE EAST. ALL STRONG WAA WILL REMAIN CENTERED WELL TO OUR WEST...WITH PERHAPS JUST SOME HINTS OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN VIA SLOWLY INCREASING CIRRUS. VERY COOL EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND NICELY TO THE SUNSHINE...BUT SHOULD STILL END UP A LEAST A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT ALL DEEPER MOISTURE AND SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL BE REMOVED WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST (THE LATTER TIED TO REMNANTS OF WHAT WAS ONCE TROPICAL STORM BILL). SLOWER IS DEFINITELY THE TREND WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT WAVE AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SATURDAY...LIKELY A RESULT OF THE PROXIMITY OF "BILL" PASSING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. WHAT MID LEVEL SUPPORT DOES ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY WILL BE IN WEAKENING MODE...ALTHOUGH NICE SURGE OF THETA-E ADVECTION AND SOME RER UPPER JET SUPPORT MAY COMPENSATE SOME. MAIN CHANCES FOR SHOWER/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL NOW LOOKS TO ARRIVE THE SECOND HALF OF SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING WHEN ABOVE FORCING INTERACTS WITH FAVORED DIURNAL INSTABILITY TRENDS. HOWEVER...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME MORNING ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER ALONG SURGE OF STRONGER MOISTURE ADVECTION TIED TO PASSING LOW LEVEL JET. MUCH LIKE THE PAST SEVERAL SIMILAR EVENTS...ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD REMAIN OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH IN VICINITY OF MUCH BETTER INSTABILITY. && .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE EXTENDED RANGE...ESPECIALLY WITH REGARDS TO ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES. JUST REALLY IMPOSSIBLE TO GET A GOOD FEEL ON SHOWER POTENTIAL SUNDAY INTO THE START OF NEXT WORK WEEK...WITH YET TO BE SEEN FAST MOVING WAVES IN OVERHEAD AGGRESSIVE FLOW AT LEAST OFFERING SOME SHOWER POTENTIAL AT TIMES. PER THE USUAL IN SUCH A PATTERN...THIS FORECAST WILL APPEAR MUCH WETTER THAN WHAT WILL LIKELY ACTUALLY OCCUR...SIMPLY AN UNFORTUNATE PRODUCT OF TIMING UNCERTAINTY. NOW...AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED...LATEST HIGHER RES GUIDANCE PROGS HAVE INCREASINGLY ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR BUILDING CENTRAL PLAINS HEAT DOME/RIDGING HEADING INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ALL-THE-WHILE TROUGHING RESIDES OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS. ABOVE IS A PRIME PATTERN FOR PERIODIC RIDGE RIDING MCS`S (SO CALLED RING OF FIRE) TO PIVOT SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. SIMPLY TOO EARLY TO SAY WITH ANY CONFIDENCE WHERE THE BEST CORRIDOR WILL ALIGN ITSELF. WILL SAY IF CURRENT TRENDS HOLD...MOST IMPRESSIVE CORRIDOR OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH...PLACING THE MOST ACTIVE TEMP/INSTABILITY GRADIENT JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST. ONLY TIME WILL TELL...OF COURSE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 650 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR FOR ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF SITES THRU THURSDAY NIGHT DESPITE INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THRU THE REGION. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ACROSS NE LWR MICHIGAN (APN) THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS FROPA OCCURS DURING MAX HEATING/DIURNAL INSTABILITY. LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME N/NW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT DURING THE DAY...AND WILL AGAIN BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 WINDS AND WAVES WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AND STRENGTHEN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...BUT AT THIS POINT...BOTH ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND THUNDER ACROSS NE LWR MICHIGAN AND THUS THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH DRY WEATHER AND DIMINISHING WINDS/WAVES EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...NONE. LM...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...ADAM NEAR TERM...MLR SHORT TERM...MSB LONG TERM...MSB AVIATION...MLR MARINE...MLR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
650 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 .NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 SURFACE RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED EAST OF MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...AS A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER ONTARIO AND MINNESOTA BEGINS TO MAKE A MOVE TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION. ONLY PRECIP TO SPEAK OF ATTM REMAINS UPSTREAM OF OUR CWA OVER UPPER MICHIGAN PER KMQT BASE REF IMAGES...DEVELOPING WITHIN AN AREA OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LACK OF INSTABILITY HAS PRECLUDED ANY THUNDER WITHIN THIS BKN LINE OF SHOWERS. PRIMARY FORECASTS CONCERN FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT ARE POPS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER AS THIS FRONT MOVES THRU OUR CWA. BOTH THE NAM AND THE RAP DEVELOP A WEAK WAVE OVER WISCONSIN THIS MORNING ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...PULLING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS A WEAK INSTABILITY AXIS PUSHES NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN TODAY. MUCAPES INCREASE TO AROUND 750 TO 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SE SECTIONS OF OUR CWA...MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM APN TO HTL. THIS IS WHERE OUR GREATEST POPS AND BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL RESIDE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THANKS TO FROPA DURING MAX DIURNAL HEATING/INSTABILITY. ALSO...SOME DESCENT SPEED SHEAR WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THIS AREA BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...FURTHER SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER DEVELOPMENT. LATEST SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS OUR SE CWA FOR A MARGINAL CHANCE OF SVR STORMS...WHICH IS REASONABLE GIVEN THE ABOVE SCENARIO. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND EXTENDED POPS INTO THE EVENING HOURS BASED ON LATEST FROPA PROJECTIONS. HAVE ALSO INCREASED CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR OUR SE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW LEVEL CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL LEND TO A LARGER SPREAD OF TEMPS TODAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S IN ERN UPR MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 70S IN OUR FAR SE CWA. && .SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE. PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: FAST MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME SHOWING NO SIGNS OF SLOWING DOWN ANYTIME IN THE NEAR FUTURE...WITH NORTHERN MICHIGAN SQUARELY CENTERED BETWEEN BROAD SOUTHERN RIDGING AND DEEP TROUGHING ROTATING AROUND THE CANADIAN ARCTIC. FAST MOVING...HARD TO TIME...WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE OVERHEAD...ALTHOUGH STILL APPEARS DISCONNECT WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN THEM AND MUCH DEEPER INSTABILITY/MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. WHILE THIS MAY PREVENT A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL FOR OUR NECK OF THE WOODS...PASSING WAVES WORKING ON A MODESTLY MOST ENVIRONMENT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES AS WE HEAD INTO THE BEGINNING OF THIS WEEKEND. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: ADDRESSING SATURDAY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. DETAILS: WORK WEEK ENDS ON A QUIET NOTE AS HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER...DESPITE SLOWLY PASSING OFF TO THE EAST. ALL STRONG WAA WILL REMAIN CENTERED WELL TO OUR WEST...WITH PERHAPS JUST SOME HINTS OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN VIA SLOWLY INCREASING CIRRUS. VERY COOL EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND NICELY TO THE SUNSHINE...BUT SHOULD STILL END UP A LEAST A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT ALL DEEPER MOISTURE AND SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL BE REMOVED WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST (THE LATTER TIED TO REMNANTS OF WHAT WAS ONCE TROPICAL STORM BILL). SLOWER IS DEFINITELY THE TREND WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT WAVE AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SATURDAY...LIKELY A RESULT OF THE PROXIMITY OF "BILL" PASSING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. WHAT MID LEVEL SUPPORT DOES ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY WILL BE IN WEAKENING MODE...ALTHOUGH NICE SURGE OF THETA-E ADVECTION AND SOME RER UPPER JET SUPPORT MAY COMPENSATE SOME. MAIN CHANCES FOR SHOWER/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL NOW LOOKS TO ARRIVE THE SECOND HALF OF SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING WHEN ABOVE FORCING INTERACTS WITH FAVORED DIURNAL INSTABILITY TRENDS. HOWEVER...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME MORNING ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER ALONG SURGE OF STRONGER MOISTURE ADVECTION TIED TO PASSING LOW LEVEL JET. MUCH LIKE THE PAST SEVERAL SIMILAR EVENTS...ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD REMAIN OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH IN VICINITY OF MUCH BETTER INSTABILITY. && .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE EXTENDED RANGE...ESPECIALLY WITH REGARDS TO ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES. JUST REALLY IMPOSSIBLE TO GET A GOOD FEEL ON SHOWER POTENTIAL SUNDAY INTO THE START OF NEXT WORK WEEK...WITH YET TO BE SEEN FAST MOVING WAVES IN OVERHEAD AGGRESSIVE FLOW AT LEAST OFFERING SOME SHOWER POTENTIAL AT TIMES. PER THE USUAL IN SUCH A PATTERN...THIS FORECAST WILL APPEAR MUCH WETTER THAN WHAT WILL LIKELY ACTUALLY OCCUR...SIMPLY AN UNFORTUNATE PRODUCT OF TIMING UNCERTAINTY. NOW...AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED...LATEST HIGHER RES GUIDANCE PROGS HAVE INCREASINGLY ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR BUILDING CENTRAL PLAINS HEAT DOME/RIDGING HEADING INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ALL-THE-WHILE TROUGHING RESIDES OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS. ABOVE IS A PRIME PATTERN FOR PERIODIC RIDGE RIDING MCS`S (SO CALLED RING OF FIRE) TO PIVOT SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. SIMPLY TOO EARLY TO SAY WITH ANY CONFIDENCE WHERE THE BEST CORRIDOR WILL ALIGN ITSELF. WILL SAY IF CURRENT TRENDS HOLD...MOST IMPRESSIVE CORRIDOR OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH...PLACING THE MOST ACTIVE TEMP/INSTABILITY GRADIENT JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST. ONLY TIME WILL TELL...OF COURSE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 650 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR FOR ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF SITES THRU THURSDAY NIGHT DESPITE INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THRU THE REGION. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ACROSS NE LWR MICHIGAN (APN) THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS FROPA OCCURS DURING MAX HEATING/DIURNAL INSTABILITY. LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME N/NW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT DURING THE DAY...AND WILL AGAIN BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 WINDS AND WAVES WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AND STRENGTHEN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...BUT AT THIS POINT...BOTH ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND THUNDER ACROSS NE LWR MICHIGAN AND THUS THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH DRY WEATHER AND DIMINISHING WINDS/WAVES EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...NONE. LM...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...MLR SHORT TERM...MSB LONG TERM...MSB AVIATION...MLR MARINE...MLR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
543 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 .UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW... && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 THE SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE THE CHANCE AND COVERAGE OF POSSIBLE CONVECTION ALONG SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPPING OVER THE AREA TODAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FAST WEST FLOW ALOFT. THE NORTHERN EXTENSION DEVELOPED SOME SHOWERS/THUNDER OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTAS AND IS NOW WEAKENING. THE OTHER A DECENT SIZED MCS TRAVELING ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND DROPPING INTO NEBRASKA. A LOT OF CIRRUS DEBRIS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. THE NORTHERN SYSTEM IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. VARIOUS MODELS SUGGEST INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND WITH LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT...MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION AS IT DROPS SOUTH DURING THE MAX HEATING OF THE DAY. VARIOUS HIRES MODELS AND THE HRRR IS NOW TRYING TO DEVELOP ISOLATED CONVECTION WITH THE BOUNDARY. IT APPEARS AS THE WAVE MOVES FARTHER EAST THE UPPER JET STREAK TRANSLATES FARTHER EAST...THE BETTER FORCING FROM IT IS GENERATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN CWA. MAIN QUESTION WAS HOW FAR WEST WITH THE SMALL POP TO GO. THE NAM AND HIRES NMM WERE THE STRONGEST WITH DEVELOPMENT/INSTABILITY...BUT THE GFS STILL MANAGED TO DROP SOME QPF INTO WESTERN WI. WILL HOLD SMALL POP TO THE EAST METRO INTO WESTERN WI FOR NOW. SHOULD SEE DIURNAL NATURE TO ANY DEVELOPMENT AND SHOULD DIE OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING. CLEARING WITH MORE CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM MORE DAKOTAS ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT. KEPT IT DRY FOR NOW...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH DAKOTAS SYSTEM FOR ANY VARIABLE SHIFTING OF COMPLEX OVERNIGHT. IT COULD AFFECT THE FAR WEST BEFORE DAYBREAK. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 A ZONAL FLOW REGIME PERSISTS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES FOSTERING MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SAID PATTERN WILL ALSO BE CONDUCIVE TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPATURES WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. AT DAYBREAK FRIDAY...EXPECT ELEVATED CONVECTION TO BE ONGOING OVER THE DAKOTAS...GENERATED BY ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A WARM FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE DAY AS THE FIRST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVES ARRIVES...BUT THE BULK LOOKS TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS A CAP BUILDS IN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WILL LIKELY SEE A BREAK IN STORMS UNTIL WE CAN TAP INTO THE BUILDING INSTABILITY. THE AFTERNOON ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO THE WEST OVER THE DAKOTAS...AND THEN CONGEAL INTO A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THIS HAPPENS...THERE LOOKS TO BE A POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR FORECAST. THIS THREAT APPEARS TO LIE BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z SATURDAY...WITH RESIDUAL ACTIVITY IN WI SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING A LULL IN THE STORMS...BUT THEN MORE WEAK EMBEDDED ENERGY ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THESE TYPES OF WAVES IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW IS OF COURSE LOW...SO HAVE HELD ON TO 20-30 POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRING SLIGHTLY MORE TO FOCUS ON...AS A BAROCLINIC ZONE LIFTS TOWARD THE AREA. HOWEVER...18.00Z GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS SHOW VASTLY DIFFERENT TIMING/PLACEMENT SCENARIOS. HAVE THEREFORE INCLUDED 30-40 POPS AT THIS POINT UNTIL DIFFERENCES RESOLVE SOMEWHAT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 545 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 SOME MVFR CIGS LEFTOVER FROM YESTERDAY RAIN AFFECTING MAINLY KEAU THIS MORNING. SHOULD MOVE OUT SHORTLY. MORE CIGS DEVELOPED AROUND 5K FEET BEFORE DAWN IN THE EAST...AND HAS KEPT WIDESPREAD FOG FROM FORMING. OTHER WISE...SOME LOWER VFR CIGS TO THE FAR NORTH WITH PATCH LOW END IFR STRATUS/FOG INTO WEST CENTRAL NEAR RIDGE AXIS. THIS TOO COULD OF DEVELOPED MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE...BUT HIGH CLOUDS FORM THE SOUTH DAKOTA/NEB THUNDERSTORMS COMPLEX WAS THICK ENOUGH TO PROMOTE THAT FROM HAPPENING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY/TONIGHT WITH PERIODS OF CUMULUS AND MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE PERIOD. SOME THREAT OF ISOLD SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH AND WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON. LIMITED VS MENTION TO WI TAF SITES FOR NOW. KMSP...VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SOME THREAT OF ISOLD SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT TOO MINIMAL TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. PERIODS OF CUMULUS AND MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI AFTN/NITE...MAINLY VFR WITH OCNL PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR IN SHRA/TSRA. WINDS SE 10-15 KT. SAT...MAINLY VFR WITH OCNL PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR IN SHRA/TSRA. WINDS SSW 10-15 KT BECOMING NW IN AFTERNOON. SUN...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHC OF MVFR SHRA/TSRA. N WINDS 5-10 KTS. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DWE LONG TERM...LS AVIATION...DWE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1016 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HOT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SPREADING OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES WILL KEEP NORTHERN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS STALLED OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO NEXT WEEK. EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR IN THIS PATTERN WITH AN ENHANCED RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN ON SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF BILL. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... LOTS OF SHORT LIVED LIGHT SHOWERS ON RADAR THIS MORNING. HRRR RUNS SUPPORT SCT CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND SPC HAS THE AREA IN THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY. MAIN SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE ISOLATED HIGH WINDS IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALSO POSSIBLE...THOUGH QPF IS RELATIVELY LIGHT GIVEN THE SHORT DURATION OF THE RAINFALL. A STRONG S/WV TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS SERN CANADA AND SEND A SFC COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL PA AFTER 00Z FRI. EXPECT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE FRONT ALTHOUGH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SUGGESTS A LOWERING INTENSITY/COVERAGE OF PCPN. DRIER AIR SHOULD WORK INTO NWRN AND NCENTRAL PA INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AS THE SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE PA/MD LINE BY 12Z FRI. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... FRIDAY IS LOOKING MAINLY DRY OVERALL AS DECENT SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND DIRECTS DRIER/LOWER HUMIDITY AIR INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. HOWEVER STILL CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM OVER FAR SOUTHERN PA WHERE PWS REMAIN MODESTLY HIGH AND MODELS SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY. A COOLER AND LESS HUMID NIGHT LOOKS IN STORE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT READINGS POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S OVER THE NCENTRAL MTNS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... DECENT SFC HIGH DEPARTS NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY WITH SLY RETURN FLOW PUSHING THE BRIEFLY SUPPRESSED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DEEP MSTR BACK INTO SOUTHERN PA. FOCUS INTO THE WEEKEND WILL SHIFT TO THE REMNANTS OF BILL...WHICH ARE FCST VERY WELL BY THE MODELS TO REACH SOUTHEAST MO/SOUTHERN IL BY SATURDAY MORNING. A SLOWER TREND AND MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK APPEARS TO BE EMERGING IN THE GUIDANCE DUE TO LIMITED INFLUENCE FROM THE NRN STREAM WESTERLIES. BY SATURDAY EVE...THE LOW BECOMES MORE OF A WAVE GOING UP THE OH RIVER IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. FINALLY...BILL REACHES THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT FOLLOWING BEHIND WHAT IS LEFT OF BILL COULD INVIGORATE ADDNL SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEGINS TO MIGRATE BACK TO THE EAST NEXT WEEK WHICH SETS UP A NW/CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. WILL KEEP NRN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS STALLED OUT OVER THIS SAME REGION. THE PCPN PATTERN SHOULD TRANSITION TO MORE OF A NW FLOW/MCS TYPE PATTERN WITH IMPULSES OF ENERGY MOVING DOWNSTREAM FROM THE UPPER PLAINS AND POSING A THREAT FOR PERIODIC CONVECTION. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... LATEST RADAR SHOWS A PRECIPITATION BAND CONTINUING TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST...AFFECTING MDT AND LNS. AS THIS WEAK PRECIPITATION MOVES EASTWARD...STRONGER BANDS OF LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 14Z TO 16Z. THE LOW CIGS AND VSBYS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING BEFORE LIFTING FOR ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 16Z TO 18Z. DAYTIME HEATING AND THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. MVFR TO IFR CHANCES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...ESPECIALLY BFD AND JST AND ARES THAT RECEIVE ANY PRECIPITATION. VFR SHOULD DOMINATE THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. OUTLOOK... FRI...BCMG VFR. SAT-MON...VFR/MVFR WITH PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA. LOCALLY +RA PSBL SAT NGT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...ROSS/STEINBUGL SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1056 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN AREA OF DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN...ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. YET ANOTHER STRONG AND HOT UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE AREA NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1050 AM EDT THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB AMIDST A FAIRLY SUPPRESSED ATMOSPHERE PER LATEST VISIBLE SAT WHICH IS YIELDING CLEAR SKIES REGIONWIDE. OPTED TO BLEND IN LATEST RAP MAX TEMPERATURES AS TRENDS SEEM TO BE A TAD ABOVE THAT OF YESTERDAY...AND SKY COVER REMAINS LESS THAN AT THIS POINT 24 HOURS AGO. THE MOST NOTABLE CHANGE TO THE FCST REGARDING THESE TEMPERATURE INCREASES IS A MAX TEMPERATURE OF 100 DEGREES AT CHARLOTTE...WHICH WOULD BREAK THE OLD RECORD OF 99. UPON BLENDING IN LATEST CONSSHORT DEWPOINTS...HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY...HOWEVER STILL JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA. AS FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...LATEST SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE PROFILE SUPPORTING SEVERE PULSE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING MICROBURSTS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT...WHICH AGREES WELL WITH THE PREVIOUS FCST. THEREFORE THE HWO WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... AS OF 300 AM...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOWS A LITTLE MORE WEAKENING TODAY...WITH A FEW METERS OF HEIGHT FALLS AT 500 MB. AT THE SFC AND IN THE LLVLS...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY...WITH A WEAK WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB FLOW AND SIMILAR 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES. SO EXPECT TEMPS TO BE WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF YESTERDAY/S READINGS WITH SIMILAR HUMIDITY. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN TOP OUT IN THE 98 TO 102 RANGE ACRS MOST OF THE PIEDMONT. AS FOR CONVECTION...GUIDANCE SEEMS A LITTLE MORE BULLISH ON RESPONSE...AS WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE ALLOWS FOR SLIGHTLY BETTER CAPE AND LESS CIN. EXPECT SOLID CHC TO EVEN LIKELY POPS IN THE MTNS...AND SLGT CHC TO LOW-END CHC IN THE PIEDMONT. THERE SHUD BE SUFFICIENT CAPE AND DCAPE FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE WIND AND HAIL THREAT ACRS THE AREA. SHEAR REMAINS WEAK...BUT TICKS UP SLIGHTLY WITH INCREASING 700-500 MB FLOW. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE ACRS NC. SO LOOSELY ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES...LIKE WHAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY TO OUR NORTH. TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE EVENING...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...OVERALL...STORMS SHUD WANE THRU THE OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND PERSISTENCE OF LAST FEW NIGHTS...IN THE 60S MTNS AND UPPER 60S TO MID 70S PIEDMONT. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...THE CAROLINAS AND NORTH GEORGIA WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE WESTERLIES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS THE CENTER OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. NEVERTHELESS...HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN ANOMALOUSLY HIGH...SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF HOT (ALBEIT NOT-AS-HOT) WEATHER AND AFTERNOON BUOYANCY THAT WILL BE VERY NEAR... IF NOT LESS THAN WHAT IS TYPICALLY SEEN THIS TIME OF YEAR. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...WHICH COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION...IN ADDITION TO TYPICAL TERRAIN EFFECTS. HIGHER THAN TYPICAL CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL THEREFORE BE ADVERTISED FRI AFTERNOON... ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NC...WITH 30 OR SO POPS FAVORED ACROSS THE UPSTATE/NORTHEAST GA. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A FEW PULSE SEVERE STORMS...BUT CONTINUED WEAK SHEAR SHOULD NOT SUPPORT MUCH MORE THAN THAT. FOR SATURDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE THERMODYNAMIC... WHILE THE WEAK BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL...MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SAT AFTERNOON POPS WILL THEREFORE BE LOWER THAN ON FRIDAY...WITH GENERALLY CLIMATOLOGICAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ANTICIPATED. POPS ACTUALLY INCREASE ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES SAT NIGHT...AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH BILL/S REMNANTS SWINGS ACROSS THE TENN VALLEY AND AT LEAST BRUSHES THE NC PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 335 AM THURSDAY...SUNDAY MAY WIND UP BEING RATHER TAME CONVECTIVE-WISE...AS THE AREA WILL SPEND MUCH OF THE DAY WITHIN SUBSIDENT AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT OF T.D. BILL. NEVERTHELESS...A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE PM...MAINLY ACROSS THE MTNS. TEMPS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE YET AGAIN AS HEIGHTS BEGIN RISING. IN FACT...THIS IS THE DEVELOPING BIG STORY FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE...AS THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE REGION AGAIN...THIS TIME FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IN FACT...WIDESPREAD UPPER 90S SHOULD RETURN BY MID-WEEK...IF NOT SOONER. THE PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN CONDUCIVE TO ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION. WITH THE AREA LIKELY REMAINING JUST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH...SOME DEGREE OF WEAK W/NW UPPER FLOW WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH COULD OPEN THE POSSIBILITY OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION ORIGINATING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO IMPACT THE REGION...ALTHOUGH THIS STORM TRACK IS MORE LIKELY TO SET UP NORTH OF OUR AREA. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A POSSIBLE DIRECT IMPACT FROM TSRA. EXPECT TO SEE GENERALLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION. WILL CONTINUE WITH A PROB30 STARTING AT 21Z...ALTHO ISOLD TSRA WILL BE DEVELOPING BEFORE THEN. WINDS WILL START OUT LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING...THEN FAVOR THE SW AROUND 5 KTS THIS AFTN. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CONVECTION ACRS THE MTNS TO THE WEST...THERE MAY BE AN OUTFLOW THAT SWITCHES THE DIRECTION TO THE NW AROUND 00Z. WINDS GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING WITH LINGERING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED ACRS THE PIEDMONT WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS ACTIVITY IN THE MTNS THIS AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING. WILL ADD PROB30 TO ALL SITES FOR TS...AND VCTS AT KAVL. THE CONVECTION SHUD DIMINISH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT THRU LATE MORNING...THEN PICK UP SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE SW THIS AFTN...EXCEPT NW AT KAVL. FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN AROUND THE AIRFIELD AT KAVL...SO I WILL ADD VSBY RESTRICTION AFTER 6Z. THE OTHER SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR...BUT IF COVERAGE OF RAIN IS GREAT ENUF NEAR ANY SITES...THERE MAY BE A LITTLE MORE FOG OUT THERE. OUTLOOK...NEAR NORMAL COVERAGE OF AFTN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SCT COVERAGE OVER THE MTNS AND ISOLATED OVER THE PIEDMONT. MORNING RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG AND/OR STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL THE PREVIOUS DAY...AND IN MTN VALLEYS. CONFIDENCE TABLE... 15-21Z 21-03Z 03-09Z 09-12Z KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 94% HIGH 100% KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 89% KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 94% THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE) WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES && .CLIMATE... RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY JUNE 18TH... GSP 101 1887 CLT 99 1944 AVL 94 1944 RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY JUNE 19TH... GSP 103 1887 CLT 102 1944 AVL 92 1931/1933 && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDL NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG SHORT TERM...JDL LONG TERM...JDL AVIATION...ARK CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1046 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1042 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 LOW CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO NORTHEAST SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN SO HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. HRRR PICKING UP ON THIS PRETTY WELL AND SHOWS CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE. CURRENT HIGH TEMPS APPEAR ON TRACK FOR THE TIME BEING SO NO BIG CHANGES THERE. FORECAST FOR TODAY REMAINS DRY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 REMNANT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE COMPLEX WHICH TRACKED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA LAST EVENING IS ONGOING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST CWA. THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST...EXITING THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS DEVELOP A 30+ KT LLJ AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODELS SUGGEST INITIAL STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE NOSE OF THE JET...BUT THEN TRACK FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. CERTAINLY AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT AS 0-6 KM SHEAR TOPS OUT AROUND 50 KTS. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CAP WILL BE OVER THE CWA THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER /700 MB TEMPS RANGE FROM 10 TO 14 C FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA/. WHILE MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING IN THE CONSENSUS DEPARTMENT...IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER AND WILL AGAIN BE A LATE NIGHT SHOW DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND THE SURFACE FRONT. SEVERE PARAMETERS STILL LOOK RATHER IMPRESSIVE...AND SPC HAS PLACED THE NORTHERN CWA INTO A MODERATE RISK. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 FAST AND RELATIVELY FLAT MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM. THIS MEANS PERIODIC MCS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. UNFORTUNATELY TIMING ISSUES ABOUND WITH THE DIFFERENT MODELS AND THUS A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH TO POPS HAD TO BE USED. NEEDLESS TO SAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH THIS MORNING ON DETERMINISTIC DETAILS. A LL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE HANGING OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD...LENDING MORE SUPPORT FOR PERIODIC SHOWERS/STORMS. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING WILL LIFT QUICKLY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED REGION WIDE THEREAFTER. THERE IS SOME CHC OF STORMS MAKING IT INTO KPIR/KMBG LATE THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS LOW SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAFS FOR THE TIME BEING. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...TMT SHORT TERM...SERR LONG TERM...TDK AVIATION...TDK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
747 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 .AVIATION... /12Z TAFS/ VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS BEHIND THE DEPARTING REMNANTS OF TS BILL. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS CONTINUE ALONG THE RED RIVER AND SOME LOWER CIGS ARE OCCURRING EAST OF THE MAJOR AIRPORTS THIS MORNING. THERE ARE SOME LOWER CIGS WELL WEST OF WACO THIS MORNING. CURRENTLY WE DONT THINK THEY WILL MAKE IT INTO NORTH TEXAS BUT IT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. OTHERWISE...SCT/BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE MVFR CIGS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. CONCERNING THUNDERSTORMS...THERE IS SOME CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE BULK OF ANY ACTIVITY WOULD BE EAST OF THE MAJOR AIRPORTS. CONCERNING WINDS...SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15KT WILL BE THE PREVAILING DIRECTION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER THERE ARE STRONGER WINDS AROUND 2000FT. IF FULL SUN CAN PERSIST LATER THIS MORNING...WINDS COULD BECOME GUSTY FOR SEVERAL HOURS AS THEY MIX DOWN. DUNN && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 736 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015/ THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR STILL DEVELOPS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS AREAS EAST OF I-35 AND ALSO IN AREAS SOUTH OF I-20. THE TEXAS TECH WRF SHOWS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE RED RIVER AND ALSO EAST OF A BONHAM TO LAMPASAS LINE. GIVEN THESE SOLUTIONS AND ALSO ONES FROM THE NMM WRF AND THE ARW WRF...HAVE DECIDED TO LOWER POPS ALONG AND WEST OF I-35 EXCEPT RIGHT NEAR THE RED RIVER. HAVE LEFT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS IS BUT WE MAY BE ABLE TO CARVE SOME COUNTIES OUT OF IT LATER THIS MORNING. 58 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 89 74 93 76 92 / 30 20 20 10 5 WACO, TX 90 73 92 74 91 / 40 20 20 5 10 PARIS, TX 80 71 88 73 90 / 60 50 20 10 10 DENTON, TX 86 70 92 74 91 / 30 20 20 10 5 MCKINNEY, TX 86 71 92 73 91 / 40 30 20 10 10 DALLAS, TX 89 75 93 76 91 / 30 20 20 10 10 TERRELL, TX 87 72 92 74 90 / 50 30 20 10 10 CORSICANA, TX 86 73 91 73 90 / 50 20 20 5 10 TEMPLE, TX 89 72 90 73 90 / 50 20 20 5 10 MINERAL WELLS, TX 91 70 92 72 92 / 20 20 20 5 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091>095- 105>107-120>123-134-135-145>148-158>162-174-175. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
736 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 .DISCUSSION... THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR STILL DEVELOPS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS AREAS EAST OF I-35 AND ALSO IN AREAS SOUTH OF I-20. THE TEXAS TECH WRF SHOWS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE RED RIVER AND ALSO EAST OF A BONHAM TO LAMPASAS LINE. GIVEN THESE SOLUTIONS AND ALSO ONES FROM THE NMM WRF AND THE ARW WRF...HAVE DECIDED TO LOWER POPS ALONG AND WEST OF I-35 EXCEPT RIGHT NEAR THE RED RIVER. HAVE LEFT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS IS BUT WE MAY BE ABLE TO CARVE SOME COUNTIES OUT OF IT LATER THIS MORNING. 58 && .AVIATION... /ISSUED 112 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015/ /06Z TAFS/ CONCERNS...CEILINGS. AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL MOVES INTO OKLAHOMA...IT WILL TAKE ITS PRECIPITATION WITH IT. IN ADDITION...WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT...WITH A PREVAILING SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. MVFR CEILINGS ARE JUST UPSTREAM OF WACO...AND EXPECT THAT THESE WILL INVADE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS SIMILAR CONDITIONS IN THE METROPLEX...BUT WITH THE DRY SLOT IN PLACE...THIS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK WHEN THE SUN HEATS THE MOIST SURFACE LAYER. FOR NOW...HAVE MVFR CEILINGS ARRIVING AT 09Z...AT WHICH POINT THE SITUATION CAN BE REASSESSED FOR THE ROUTINE AMENDMENTS. THE CEILINGS SHOULD STEADILY CLIMB ON THURSDAY. WACO WILL BE THE FARTHEST FROM THE LINGERING WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE AND WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SCATTER OUT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. 25 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 89 74 93 76 92 / 30 20 20 10 5 WACO, TX 90 73 92 74 91 / 40 20 20 5 10 PARIS, TX 80 71 88 73 90 / 60 50 20 10 10 DENTON, TX 86 70 92 74 91 / 30 20 20 10 5 MCKINNEY, TX 86 71 92 73 91 / 40 30 20 10 10 DALLAS, TX 89 75 93 76 91 / 30 20 20 10 10 TERRELL, TX 87 72 92 74 90 / 50 30 20 10 10 CORSICANA, TX 86 73 91 73 90 / 50 20 20 5 10 TEMPLE, TX 89 72 90 73 90 / 50 20 20 5 10 MINERAL WELLS, TX 91 70 92 72 92 / 20 20 20 5 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091>095- 105>107-120>123-134-135-145>148-158>162-174-175. && $$ 91/58
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1044 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. A WEAK FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA WILL OSCILLATE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND AND BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY INTERACT WITH MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL TO BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1015 AM EDT THURSDAY... WEAK FRONT HAS SLIPPED BACK NORTH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH OVERALL WEST TO SW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AND DRIER AIR ALOFT AS SEEN OFF MORNING SOUNDINGS. ALSO GIVEN LOWER PWATS AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN...APPEARS CONVECTIVE THREAT MUCH LOWER AT LEAST EARLY ON ESPCLY WITH THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT NOW TO THE NE UNDER LACK OF FORCING ALOFT. APPEARS BEST FOCUS WILL AGAIN BE WITH CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES WHERE MORE IN THE WAY OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING APPEARS LIKELY. STRENGTH AND DEGREE OF MIXING WITH THE WEST WIND AND CORRESPONDING DOWNSLOPE THE KEY TO SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST AS SHOULD SEE QUITE A BIT LESS OR DELAYED COVERAGE IF WINDS STAY BETTER MIXED INTO AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON. LATEST HRRR AGAIN THE WETTEST WITH ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT BLUE RIDGE AND SOME CLUSTERING SE WEST VA LATER ON WHEN MIXING WEAKENS AND PERHAPS A FAINT UPSTREAM WEAK IMPULSE APPROACHES. REMAINDER OF SOLUTIONS INCLUDING THE 12Z NAM MUCH LESS AMBITIOUS...WITH COVERAGE MAINLY WEST THIS EVENING WHEN CAPPING ALOFT FADES...AND MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT WILL BE SAGGING BACK SOUTH LATE. THUS TRIMMED BACK POPS WHILE RUNNING WITH LOW CHANCES WEST...AND MAINLY 20-30 COVERAGE BLUE RIDGE EAST WHERE THE FLOW MAY BACK SW A LITTLE MORE. OTRW ANOTHER VERY HOT/HUMID AFTERNOON UNDER MOSTLY/PARTLY SUNNY SKIES PER CI/CU...WITH THICKNESS PUSHING MID/UPPER 90S EAST GIVEN WEAK DOWNSLOPE AND 85-90 WEST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY... STARTING THE DAY OFF WITH A FOG IN A COUPLE AREAS THANKS TO WET SOILS FROM RAINFALL WEDNESDAY EVENING...AS WELL AS LIGHT WINDS AND DECREASING CLOUD COVER. ANY FOG WHICH DEVELOPS WILL BE QUICK TO BURN OFF AFTER 9 AM AS HEATING INCREASES. THE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE MORE DOMINATED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY...RESULTING IN GENERALLY WESTERLY WINDFLOW. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS MORNING...HOWEVER THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY...ALLOWING SUBTLE DISTURBANCES TO PASS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460 BEGINNING AROUND LUNCHTIME AS ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE ENTERS FROM THE WEST. AS THE DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...LIKELY SOLIDIFYING INTO A BROKEN LINE AS THEY PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE. STRONG HEATING TODAY FROM THE DOWNSLOPE WINDFLOW WILL ALLOW THE LOW LEVELS TO DRY OUT...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS WITH THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN WITH SOME OF THE LARGER STORMS. AS THIS AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS EXITS...WILL ALSO HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE TO OUR NORTHWEST THURSDAY EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS ANOTHER POTENTIAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO RIVER. STILL A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO SAY AT THIS POINT HOW FAR INTO OUR AREA THESE STORMS WILL ADVANCE OR WHAT SHAPE THEY WILL BE IN WHEN THEY ARRIVE...BUT GIVEN THE TIMING OF THEIR PASSAGE...EXPECT THAT THEY WILL BE BELOW SEVERE INTENSITY. THE COMBINATION OF RIDGING ALOFT AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LOW TO MID 90S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT... AND MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 445 AM EDT THURSDAY... EXPECT BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER SINKS SOUTHWARD. CONVECTION WILL PULSE UP DURING LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE EVENING. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND INSTABILITY APPEAR TO BE MODEST... HOWEVER WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STORMS BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN ACTIVITY WILL PUSH EAST OF OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT... LEAVING ONLY LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...BRINGING WITH IT A NORTHEASTERLY WINDSHIFT ACROSS THE AREA. ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE RIDGELINES COMBINED WITH INCREASING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL WILL TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF PULSE VARIETY STORMS BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE MAIN ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH BILL WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING THAT THE SYSTEM WILL PASS UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...DRAWING WITH IT A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...WITH PWATS AROUND 2.2 INCHES COMING INTO THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. BELIEVE THE SYSTEM WILL PLAY OUT AS A SOLID LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AS IT ENTERS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...AFFECTING MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS OF VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA. THE REMNANTS OF BILL WILL MOVE QUICKLY HOWEVER...SO DO NOT BELIEVE THAT HEAVY RAIN WILL LAST FOR MORE THAN A FEW HOURS BEFORE EXITING THE AREA. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... ON MONDAY THE TS REMNANTS WILL BE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND GETTING ABSORBED BY ANOTHER LOW/FRONTAL SYSTEM SWEEPING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS NOTHING TO PUSH THIS FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION SO IT WILL SIMPLY PIVOT/MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA AS THE UPPER PATTERN STARTS TO AMPLIFY AGAIN WITH A RIDGE BECOMING REESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL KEEP US LOCKED INTO THE HEAT WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO GRADUALLY NUDGE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AND LEAVE US VULNERABLE TO UPSTREAM MCS DEVELOPMENT SLIDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. WITHOUT ANYTHING DEFINITIVE TO LATCH ON TO WILL KEEP POPS LOW AND WAIT FOR THE SITUATION TO DEFINE ITSELF OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 800 AM EDT THURSDAY... ANOTHER WARM MUGGY DAY ANTICIPATED WITH AFTERNOON BUILD-UPS AND WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. ASIDE FROM THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT...CONDITIONS TO REMAIN PRIMARILY VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE SOUTH...WINDS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN WESTERLY WIND FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA...GUSTY AT TIMES. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL BE WEAKEN WITH TIME AS THE REMNANTS OF TS BILL MOVE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. MODELS SUGGEST THE BEST LIFT OVER OUR AREA FROM TS BILL WILL OCCUR SATUDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. && .CLIMATE... AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY... RECORD HIGHS FOR THURSDAY JUNE 18TH... STATION RECORD HIGHS/YEAR ROANOKE 97/1925 LYNCHBURG 96/1944 DANVILLE 96/2007 BLACKSBURG 88/2014 BLUEFIELD 90/2007 LEWISBURG 89/2014 && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JH/NF NEAR TERM...JH/NF SHORT TERM...NF LONG TERM...MBS AVIATION...NF/PM CLIMATE...JH/PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
218 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2015 AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVED THRU MUCH OF THE SERN PLAINS TODAY AND IS SITTING OVR THE SE CORNER OF THE STATE. BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...DEW POINTS ARE MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPR 50S...AND WARMING HAS BEEN SLOWED. CONVECTION HAS BEEN VERY LIMITED SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON... WITH JUST SOME ISOLD STORMS OVR THE SRN MTNS. SPC MESO ANALYSIS INDICATES CAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG OVR A GOOD SHARE OF THE SERN PLAINS...NOT INCLUDING LAS ANIMAS COUNTY. 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES ARE ABOUT 40 KTS NR THE KS BORDER. WITH THE BOUNDARY SITTING OVR THE SERN CORNER OF THE STATE...IT WL SERVE AS FOCUS FOR TSTMS DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS AREA WL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS AND THUS A SEVERE TSTM WATCH WL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR BACA COUNTY. THE HRRR SHOWS THE BEST CHANCES FOR TSTMS OVR THE SERN CORNER INTO EARLY EVENING AND THEN MOVING SOUTH OF THE BORDER. IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS...THE HRRR ALSO SHOWS TSTMS ALONG THE ERN MTNS WORKING THEIR WAY EASTWARD. VERY LITTLE CHANCE FOR PCPN IS EXPECTED OVR WRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. ON FRI A WEAK UPR RIDGE WL BE OVR THE AREA...WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT DRIER. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION SHOULD BE ISOLD AND MAINLY CONFINED TO OVR AND NR THE MTNS AND MAYBE ACRS THE SRN BORDER AREA IN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY. H7 TEMPS ACRS THE FORECAST AREA FRI AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM ABOUT 17C-20C. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 90S ACRS THE SERN PLAINS AND IN THE 80S OVR THE HIGH VALLEYS. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2015 ...HOT AND DRY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY... LOOKS LIKE A STABLE SUMMER PATTERN IS HERE TO STAY. A STRONG H5 HIGH WILL BUILD OVER SRN CA THIS WEEKEND AND THEN DRIFT SLOWLY EWD OVER NRN NM EARLY NEXT WEEK. H7 TEMPS WILL CLIMB FROM AROUND 16 DEG C EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO 20 DEGREES OR MORE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. DURING THIS TIME...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION WITH VERY DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE SW. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LOCAL BUILD-UPS OVR THE MTS...AND MAYBE SOME VIRGA...BUT MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL BE TOUGH TO COME BY. SO...HAVE DROPPED POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE THRESHOLDS...MAINTAINING ONLY SINGLE DIGIT POPS ON A DIURNAL BASIS OVER THE MTS. MOS TEMPS REMAIN AT 100 DEGREES OR HIGHER FOR THE PLAINS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP TEMPS OVER THE LOWER ARKANSAS JUST BELOW 100 SINCE SURFACE DEWS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH AND THIS MAY CUT THE HIGH END OFF JUST A BIT. BUT IT WILL BE HOT. HOT AND DRY. BY WED AND BEYOND...SOME DIFFERENCES BETWN THE GFS AND ECMWF AS THE FORMER REBUILDS THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE DESERT SW WHILE THE LATTER BREAKS THINGS DOWN A BIT MORE. BOTH MODELS BRING IN A BIT MORE MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...WHICH SHOULD BRING BACK DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS AND HOLD HIGH TEMPS DOWN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS. ENSEMBLE BASED TEMPS AND POPS LOOK REASONABLE IN THE EXTENDED...AS WE SLOWLY HEAD TOWARD MORE OF A MID-SUMMER REGIME WITH THE MONSOON RIGHT AROUND THE CORNER. ROSE && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2015 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. SOME SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY MOVE INTO THE VCNTY OF KCOS AND KPUB THIS EVENING. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...28 LONG TERM...ROSE AVIATION...28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
431 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TOMORROW MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...AS WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... AS OF 430 PM EDT...A PROGRESSIVE AND DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER S-CNTRL ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC WITH THE CLOSED H500 CIRCULATION OVER HUDSON BAY WILL BREAK DOWN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BRIEFLY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. A COLD FRONT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN MOVE S/SE ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND PA HAS BEEN VERY ISOLATED. A SFC WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT OVER THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION...WILL BE QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR THE SHOWERS TO INCREASE TONIGHT WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND THEN TO EXPAND EASTWARD. THE LATEST MODEL TREND WITH THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF IS TOO SLOW DOWN THE COLD FRONT. THE GFS IS STILL THE FASTEST. THE BEST SBCAPES ON THE GFS AT 00Z ARE IN THE 250-500 J/KG RANGE OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE FCST AREA WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO 35-45 KTS. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS SOME THUNDERSTORMS FORMING...BUT THE INSTABILITY WILL BE DECREASING EVEN MORE...AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. THE PARCELS MAY ACTUALLY BE MORE ELEVATED OVERNIGHT...AS THE LATEST SHOWALTER VALUES CONTINUE IN THE 0C TO -2C RANGE. WE KEPT A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS IN UNTIL ABOUT 06Z- 07Z...AND LOWERED TO SLIGHT CHC THEREAFTER. THE POTENTIAL ELEVATED CONVECTION IS LIKELY DUE TO THE OLD WARM FRONT WASHING OUT. AGAIN...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SEVERE WITH THE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SOME BRIEF BURSTS OF RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE...AS THE COLD FRONT BEGIN TO MOVE FROM S/SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. AN AREA OF LIKELY POPS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH AND WEST WHERE THE BETTER LIFT AND CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH CHC VALUES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS TONIGHT WERE FAVORED TOWARDS THE WARMER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE WITH THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT. LOWS IN THE MID TO U50S ARE LIKELY OVER THE MTNS...WITH MAINLY LOWER TO M60S IN THE VALLEY AREAS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... TOMORROW...COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...THE CONSENSUS WITH THE SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE IS A SLOWER TREND WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT...ITS ASSOCIATED DEWPT BOUNDARY...AND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE THE SLOWEST...WITH THE GFS/ECMWF A BIT FASTER. A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION/GLENS FALLS/SARATOGA REGION/SRN VT SOUTH AND EAST IN THE MORNING. THE LATER TIMING WILL ALLOW SLIGHTLY WARMER MAX TEMPS WITH THE W/NW DOWNSLOPING WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY ALLOWING SOME COMPRESSIONAL WARMING...ESPECIALLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MID HUDSON VALLEY. THE SFC HIGH WILL BE QUICKLY BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR IN THE AFTERNOON FROM THE N/NW TO S/SE DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND WITH THE APPROACHING ANTICYCLONE. IT WILL BE A BREEZY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE RELATIVELY STRONG SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS...AND BETTER MIXING FROM ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO ISOLATED M80S FROM THE SRN REACHES OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SRN TACONICS IN THE PORTIONS OF LITCHFIELD CTY CT...MID AND U70S WILL BE COMMON IN MANY OF THE OTHER VALLEY LOCATIONS AND OVER THE HILLS...WITH M60S TO M70S OVER THE MTNS. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NW/N AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 MPH. TOMORROW NIGHT...A CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH DIMINISHING WINDS THAT BECOME LIGHT TO CALM...AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVERHEARD. IT IS A VERY COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS. H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +7C TO +10C RANGE. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE U40S TO M50S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION/MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST...AND MAINLY 40-45F NORTH OF ALBANY WITH A FEW U30S OVER THE SRN DACKS. SATURDAY...A NICE START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC HIGH MOVING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT OVER THE OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC SATES. THE REMNANT CIRCULATION FROM BILL WILL ALSO APPROACH THE OH VALLEY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY POP UP LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE CATSKILLS AND BERKSHIRES. OTHERWISE FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID AND U70S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND M60S TO L70S OVER THE MTNS. SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING N/NE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...AND A SFC WAVE AND COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE TROUGH THAT WAS FORMERLY BILL LOOKS TO STAY SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE. THE SHOWALTER VALUES LOWER TO 0C TO -2C. THE PWATS LOOKS TO INCREASE TO 1.25-1.75 INCHES. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS WITH CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AND WILL MENTION IN THE HWO. THE GREATEST THREAT LOOKS TO BE ON SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE RATHER ACTIVE...AS THE REMNANTS OF TC BILL WILL BE PASSING BY THE SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THE CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS MANY OF THE 12Z GEFS MEMBERS...SHOWS THE REMNANT SFC LOW AND HEAVIEST QPF ASSOCIATED WITH BILL MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION. STILL...WITH PWAT VALUES AS HIGH AS 2-3 STD ABOVE NORMAL...ANY SHOWER OR T-STORM OVER THE REGION WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...AS AN APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL TEAM UP WITH THE REMNANT TC CIRCULATION TO ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/T-STORMS. T-STORM ACTIVITY DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE TOO STRONG DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY DUE TO PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE HELD DOWN MAINLY INTO THE 70S THANKS TO THE PRECIP/CLOUDS. ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS LOOKS TO BE ON SUNDAY...THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY THANKS TO THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. TEMPS LOOK TO HOLD IN THE 60S FOR SUN NIGHT...AND MID 70S TO LOW 80S FOR MONDAY...WITH MORE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED AS THE BEST UPPER LEVEL ENERGY STARTS TO MOVE AWAY. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE YET ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IMPACTS THE REGION FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHC FOR THUNDER DURING TUESDAY AFTN/EVE. TEMPS ON MON NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S...AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL PROBABLY BE IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80. BEHIND THE STORM/S COLD FRONT...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL START WORKING TO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SKIES WILL START TO CLEAR OUT TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS LATE ON TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. DRY WEATHER WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A WARM FRONT IS GRADUALLY APPROACHING AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT BEARS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY HAVE MVFR CEILINGS AT KGFL...KPOU AND KPSF WITH VFR AT KALB. BY THIS EVENING WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EVENTUALLY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT WEAKENS AND THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN. HAVE PUT SHOWERS IN THE TAFS WHEN THE HIGHEST CHANCES ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. HAVE NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER IN TAFS AS CHANCES ARE TOO LOW. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WIND WILL SHIFT AND CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON AT KGFL AND KALB WITH MVFR LINGERING THROUGH 18Z/FRIDAY AT KPSF AND KPOU. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING THROUGH THE EVENING. THEY SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE JUST BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THEN SHIFT TO NORTHWEST THE NORTH IN ITS WAKE. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE GUSTY KALB IN THE EVENING. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA. SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA. SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...AS WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RECOVER TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT ...AND DECREASE TO 25 TO 45 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE RH VALUES RECOVER TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT SATURDAY MORNING. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 5-15 MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...AND WILL SHIFT TO THE W TO NW AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH TOMORROW IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. && .HYDROLOGY... NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...BUT SOME RISES ARE POSSIBLE ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AS SOME WIDESPREAD RAINFALL RETURNS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM ONE TENTH TO A THIRD AN INCH WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY MONDAY...AS THE MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL ENTITY BILL MAY IMPACT PARTS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE VARIABLE RIGHT NOW...BUT A WIDESPREAD HALF AN INCH AN INCH IS LIKELY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WASULA NEAR TERM...WASULA SHORT TERM...WASULA LONG TERM...FRUGIS AVIATION...IAA FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
241 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM`S ASSOCIATED BOUNDARIES WILL BRING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT, A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL RETURN FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 135 PM EDT...A COLD FRONT AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE WARM FRONT TO SYSTEM REMAINS SOUTH AND WEST OF CNTRL NY AND ERN PA. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RETREAT EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE. MUCH OF THE FCST AREA REMAINS IN STABLE AND CLOUDY AIR MASS. THE BEST SFC HEATING CONTINUES TO BE OVER NRN NY AND JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS RAP DATA INDICATES VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY THE ALY FCST AREA WITH MUCAPES OF 250 J/KG OVER THE NRN REACHES OF THE SRN DACKS. THE BEST INSTABILITY OF MUCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG OVER WRN-NRN NY. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE MOVED INTO THE CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY/SARATOGA REGION/NRN CATSKILLS. THE POPS WERE REDUCED FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT/HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST BASED ON THE RADAR AND LATEST HRRR REFLECTIVITY TRENDS. ALSO TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE OBSERVATIONS. THE BEST SHOWERS AND ISOLD- SCT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE TONIGHT WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. THE LATEST SPC DAY 1 GRAPHIC HAS ONLY HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES IN THE MARGINAL RISK. LATE PM THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT... COLD FRONT PROGRESSING THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA IS FORECAST TO TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND UPSTATE NY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ASSIST WITH ENHANCING THE LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN RATHER POOR AND DUE TO THE NOCTURNAL TIMING OF FROPA ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWFA...SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS VERY LOW. WE WILL MENTION ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH MAINLY SHOWERS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. MOS NUMBERS ARE RATHER SIMILAR AS A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... FRIDAY...AS MODEL TRENDS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE FROPA...WE WILL RETAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF I90 IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH FROPA AS IMPROVING SKY COVERAGE COMMENCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THE TERRAIN MAY HOLD ONTO SOME CLOUD COVERAGE BUT EVENTUALLY THE SUBSIDENCE SEEN IN THE OMEGA FIELDS WITHIN THE NCEP MODEL SUITE WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE. H850 TEMPS COOL BACK INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS BY THE END OF THE DAY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS SUGGEST WE WILL HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO TAP INTO HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT FOR SURFACE WIND GUSTS NEAR 20KTS. A COOL AND PLEASANT EVENING IS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EVOLVING AS THE CANADIAN SFC HIGH MOVES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND. H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +6C TO +8C RANGE FROM THE I90 CORRIDOR AND POINTS NORTH...AND +8C TO +10C TO THE SOUTH. LOWS WILL BE IN THE U40S TO L50S FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION SOUTH...AND 40-45F TO THE NORTH...PERHAPS A FEW ISOLD U30S IN THE SRN DACKS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... GENERALLY ZONAL UPPER PATTERN ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF FLAT UPPER RIDGING IN THE EASTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE THE VERY CHANGEABLE WEATHER FROM DAY TO DAY...THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS PATTERN OF WHAT SEEMS TO BE ALTERNATING ONE OR TWO DRY DAYS THEN ONE OR TWO WET DAYS SHOULD CONTINUE AS WEST MEAN FLOW KEEPS FEEDING UPPER ENERGY AND MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION EVERY DAY OR TWO. APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY SATURDAY NIGHT MAY INTERACT WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM AND PROVIDE GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT...REACHING LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY (AROUND 70 PERCENT)...THEN DECREASING POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. IT WILL BECOME QUITE HUMID DURING THIS PERIOD WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE 60S IN MOST PLACES. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY...BUT WITH LINGERING TROFINESS ALOFT...A SHOWER OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...SO HAVE KEPT SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. BECOMING LESS HUMID MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER AND LOWS 50 TO 60. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL AFFECT OUR REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO HAVE FORECAST NO HIGHER THAN 30 PERCENT POPS DURING THIS PERIOD. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE 70 TO 80. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND BRING PLEASANT WEATHER. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A WARM FRONT IS GRADUALLY APPROACHING AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT BEARS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY HAVE MVFR CEILINGS AT KGFL...KPOU AND KPSF WITH VFR AT KALB. BY THIS EVENING WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EVENTUALLY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT WEAKENS AND THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN. HAVE PUT SHOWERS IN THE TAFS WHEN THE HIGHEST CHANCES ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. HAVE NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER IN TAFS AS CHANCES ARE TOO LOW. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WIND WILL SHIFT AND CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON AT KGFL AND KALB WITH MVFR LINGERING THROUGH 18Z/FRIDAY AT KPSF AND KPOU. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING THROUGH THE EVENING. THEY SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE JUST BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THEN SHIFT TO NORTHWEST THE NORTH IN ITS WAKE. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE GUSTY KALB IN THE EVENING. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA. SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... CLOUDS ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST INTO TONIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DECREASE TO 45 TO 65 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 5-10 MPH THIS MORNING...AND BE SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN SHIFT TO THE W TO NW AT 5 TO 15 MPH THURSDAY NIGHT. A NORTHERLY BREEZE FRIDAY WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH. && .HYDROLOGY... RIVER LEVELS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RECEDE INTO THURSDAY...WITH SOME POSSIBLE RISES ON THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM ONE TENTH TO A THIRD AN INCH WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...AS THE MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL ENTITY BILL MAY IMPACT PARTS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...IAA/BGM/WASULA NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM/WASULA SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA LONG TERM...GJM AVIATION...IAA FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
135 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM`S ASSOCIATED BOUNDARIES WILL BRING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT, A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL RETURN FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 135 PM EDT...A COLD FRONT AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE WARM FRONT TO SYSTEM REMAINS SOUTH AND WEST OF CNTRL NY AND ERN PA. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RETREAT EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE. MUCH OF THE FCST AREA REMAINS IN STABLE AND CLOUDY AIR MASS. THE BEST SFC HEATING CONTINUES TO BE OVER NRN NY AND JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS RAP DATA INDICATES VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY THE ALY FCST AREA WITH MUCAPES OF 250 J/KG OVER THE NRN REACHES OF THE SRN DACKS. THE BEST INSTABILITY OF MUCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG OVER WRN-NRN NY. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE MOVED INTO THE CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY/SARATOGA REGION/NRN CATSKILLS. THE POPS WERE REDUCED FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT/HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST BASED ON THE RADAR AND LATEST HRRR REFLECTIVITY TRENDS. ALSO TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE OBSERVATIONS. THE BEST SHOWERS AND ISOLD- SCT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE TONIGHT WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. THE LATEST SPC DAY 1 GRAPHIC HAS ONLY HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES IN THE MARGINAL RISK. LATE PM THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT... COLD FRONT PROGRESSING THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA IS FORECAST TO TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND UPSTATE NY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ASSIST WITH ENHANCING THE LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN RATHER POOR AND DUE TO THE NOCTURNAL TIMING OF FROPA ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWFA...SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS VERY LOW. WE WILL MENTION ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH MAINLY SHOWERS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. MOS NUMBERS ARE RATHER SIMILAR AS A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... FRIDAY...AS MODEL TRENDS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE FROPA...WE WILL RETAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF I90 IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH FROPA AS IMPROVING SKY COVERAGE COMMENCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THE TERRAIN MAY HOLD ONTO SOME CLOUD COVERAGE BUT EVENTUALLY THE SUBSIDENCE SEEN IN THE OMEGA FIELDS WITHIN THE NCEP MODEL SUITE WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE. H850 TEMPS COOL BACK INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS BY THE END OF THE DAY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS SUGGEST WE WILL HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO TAP INTO HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT FOR SURFACE WIND GUSTS NEAR 20KTS. A COOL AND PLEASANT EVENING IS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EVOLVING AS THE CANADIAN SFC HIGH MOVES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND. H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +6C TO +8C RANGE FROM THE I90 CORRIDOR AND POINTS NORTH...AND +8C TO +10C TO THE SOUTH. LOWS WILL BE IN THE U40S TO L50S FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION SOUTH...AND 40-45F TO THE NORTH...PERHAPS A FEW ISOLD U30S IN THE SRN DACKS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... GENERALLY ZONAL UPPER PATTERN ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF FLAT UPPER RIDGING IN THE EASTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE THE VERY CHANGEABLE WEATHER FROM DAY TO DAY...THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS PATTERN OF WHAT SEEMS TO BE ALTERNATING ONE OR TWO DRY DAYS THEN ONE OR TWO WET DAYS SHOULD CONTINUE AS WEST MEAN FLOW KEEPS FEEDING UPPER ENERGY AND MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION EVERY DAY OR TWO. APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY SATURDAY NIGHT MAY INTERACT WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM AND PROVIDE GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT...REACHING LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY (AROUND 70 PERCENT)...THEN DECREASING POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. IT WILL BECOME QUITE HUMID DURING THIS PERIOD WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE 60S IN MOST PLACES. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY...BUT WITH LINGERING TROFINESS ALOFT...A SHOWER OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...SO HAVE KEPT SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. BECOMING LESS HUMID MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER AND LOWS 50 TO 60. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL AFFECT OUR REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO HAVE FORECAST NO HIGHER THAN 30 PERCENT POPS DURING THIS PERIOD. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE 70 TO 80. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND BRING PLEASANT WEATHER. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A WARM FRONT IS GRADUALLY APPROACHING AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT BEARS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH TONIGHT. VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS AREA WITH VFR-MVFR CEILINGS. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND EMBEDDED WITHIN A FAST WEST- EAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS REGION THERE ARE A FEW SUBTLE SHORT WAVES SO CAN NOT RULE OUT WIDELY SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDER AS THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER LATE IN THE DAY. THE HRRR INDICATES CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. AS THREAT FOR SHOWERS BECOMES MORE NUMEROUS AND HAVE FORECAST MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES DUE TO SHOWERS. TSTMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT THE CHANCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THE SHOWERS WILL END AND THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST OR NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT...BUT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 15 KTS AT KALB. THESE WIND CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE WELL INTO THURSDAY NIGHT....THEN SHIFT TO NORTH OR NORTHWEST BETWEEN 08Z AND 11Z FRIDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA. SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA. SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA. MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... CLOUDS ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST INTO TONIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DECREASE TO 45 TO 65 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 5-10 MPH THIS MORNING...AND BE SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN SHIFT TO THE W TO NW AT 5 TO 15 MPH THURSDAY NIGHT. A NORTHERLY BREEZE FRIDAY WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH. && .HYDROLOGY... RIVER LEVELS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RECEDE INTO THURSDAY...WITH SOME POSSIBLE RISES ON THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM ONE TENTH TO A THIRD AN INCH WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...AS THE MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL ENTITY BILL MAY IMPACT PARTS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...IAA/BGM/WASULA NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM/WASULA SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA LONG TERM...GJM AVIATION...IAA/GJM FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1240 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1040 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE THE PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING WHICH LIFTED DURING MID MORNING. OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK TODAY AS CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES DURING THE REST OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON FROM I-72 SOUTH WHERE LIKELY CHANCES CONTINUE. KILX 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.52 INCHES AND NAM FORECAST THESE VALUES TO INCREASE BETWEEN 1.50-2.25 INCHES DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM IL RIVER SOUTHEAST. SO THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS FROM IL RIVER SOUTHEAST. SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK EAST OF IL OVER IN/OH WHERE BETTER INSTABLITY WILL BE FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FROM WET MICROBURSTS. BUT MARGINAL RISK EXIST FROM ALONG THE IL RIVER SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM BILL OVER EASTERN OK WHERE 580 DM 500 MB LOW IS...WILL TRACK SLOWLY ENE INTO THE OZARKS OF NW AR BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND INCREASE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT INTO CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST IL THROUGH FRI NIGHT. TROPICAL HUMIDITY AGAIN TODAY WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY) ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 08Z/3AM RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. WITH MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL FLOWING NORTHEASTWARD AND A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE NORTHWEST KILX CWA TODAY...THINK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. 06Z NAM INDICATES FRONT WILL REACH A BLOOMINGTON TO RUSHVILLE LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON...ESSENTIALLY ENDING ANY RAIN CHANCES TO THE NORTH. FURTHER SOUTH...HIGHEST POPS APPEAR TO BE CONCENTRATED ON BOTH THE NAM AND HRRR ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF A CHAMPAIGN TO SPRINGFIELD LINE. .LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 MAIN FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE TRACK OF BILL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF THE KILX CWA. 00Z JUNE 18 MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT...SHOWING A FURTHER SOUTH TRACK AND A MORE COMPACT AREA OF ASSOCIATED PRECIP. MODEL CONSENSUS TAKES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING...TO THE OZARKS BY FRIDAY EVENING...THEN INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA BY SATURDAY. GIVEN THIS PARTICULAR TRACK...THE SOUTHEAST CWA WILL BE FAVORED FOR THE HEAVIEST RAIN FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. BASED ON MODEL TRENDS AND THE PRESENCE OF SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ON THE N/NW SIDE OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. HAVE FOCUSED LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70...WITH CHANCE POPS AS FAR NORTHWEST AS THE ILLINOIS RIVER. FURTHER NORTHWEST...HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST IN THE GALESBURG/LACON AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH UNSEASONABLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES...ANY STORMS THAT OCCUR DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. EXPECTED RAINFALL TOTALS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 2 TO 2.50 RANGE SOUTH OF I- 70...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE LIKELY. DESPITE EXPECTED HEAVY RAINFALL...OPTED NOT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME...MAINLY DUE TO THE FACT THAT THIS AREA MISSED THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL FROM A COUPLE DAYS AGO. THERE ARE ALSO SOME SIGNS THAT THE SYSTEM COULD TRACK EVEN FURTHER SOUTH...SHIFTING THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. ONCE BILL DEPARTS...LINGERING MORNING RAIN ACROSS THE E/SE WILL COME TO AN END BY MIDDAY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BOARD SATURDAY AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BRINGING RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE PICTURE. AFTER THAT...A VERY WARM AND OCCASIONALLY WET WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. AS WAS FIRST SEEN WITH THE GFS LAST NIGHT...LATEST ECMWF NOW ADVERTISES A WEAKER UPPER RIDGE NEXT WEEK...WHICH KEEPS THE PREVAILING BAROCLINIC ZONE IN OR CLOSE TO THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. HAVE INCLUDED LOW CHANCE POPS ACCORDINGLY. HAVE TEMPORARILY PUSHED POPS NORTH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AS RIDGE BECOMES MOST DOMINANT...BEFORE IT BREAKS DOWN AND FRONT SAGS BACK SOUTHWARD BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 A STRONG LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT RECENTLY MOVED THROUGH SPI AND DEC WITH DEC HAVING WIND GUST OF 48 MPH AT 1716Z/1216 PM WILL LIFT QUICKLY NE TOWARD CMI IN ABOUT AN HOUR. LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER HEART OF CENTRAL IL CWA WILL LIFT NE TOWARD PIA AND BMI IN NEXT 1-2 HOURS AND BRING MVFR CEILINGS AND IFR TO MVFR VSBYS WITH BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE IL RIVER WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL IL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND REACH NEAR I-70 BY 12Z/FRI. REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM BILL OVER EASTERN OK WILL TRACK SLOWLY ENE TOWARD THE MO/AR BORDER BY 18Z/1 PM FRI AND ITS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING WILL OCCUR SOUTH OF I-72 PER MOST FORECAST MODELS. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...07 SHORT TERM...BARNES LONG TERM...BARNES AVIATION...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
103 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 MADE SOME INITIAL ADJUSTMENTS FROM THE MORNING PACKAGE TO HANDLE THE INITIAL WAVE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FAR OUTER BANDS OF THE REMNANTS OF BILL MOVING FROM EASTERN OK TO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE PRIMARY OUTER BAND OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. THE MAJORITY OF WIDESPREAD, BUT RELATIVELY LIGHT PRECIPITATION, WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER THE FOOTHILLS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND ALONG THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND WITH THE INSOLATION (SUNSHINE) THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE REST OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WEST KENTUCKY. THE NAM-WRF AND HRRR GUIDANCE APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 MAIN FOCUS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING AS THE REMNANTS OF BILL PROGRESS INTO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE GIVEN THE IMPROVED AGREEMENT AMONG FORECAST MODELS. HOWEVER...SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL SET UP AND HOW MUCH WILL ULTIMATELY FALL. LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING...THE REMNANTS OF BILL ARE FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI BY FRIDAY EVENING...THEN ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA ON SATURDAY. AS THE LOW APPROACHES...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. THE MAIN SWATH OF RAIN WILL SPREAD EAST TO ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT... THEN CONCENTRATE MORE ACROSS SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY BY SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...FORECAST STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION RANGES FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO RIVER...UP TO 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. WITHIN THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...GROUND CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY MORE SATURATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. MUCH OF THIS REGION HAS RECEIVED 5 TO AS MUCH AS 10 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS...WITH JUST SHY OF HALF THAT AMOUNT OCCURRING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...WE WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 57...FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. FURTHER EAST INTO SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...AND WESTERN KENTUCKY...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINS ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THE 4TH AND 5TH PERIODS. SOIL CONDITIONS IN THIS REGION ARE ALSO NOT QUITE AS SATURATED... SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK IN THIS REGION. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER EXPANDING THE WATCH FURTHER EAST WITH TIME. UNTIL FRIDAY...EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME AS ENERGY FROM THE EASTERN REACHES OF BILL ACTS UPON A WARM TROPICAL AIR MASS TO SPARK SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALIZED FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT WIDESPREAD ISSUES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS ALSO RATHER LIMITED...BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM...MUCH OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS TOP BE RAINFREE AND SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SRN PLAINS STATES. THE SRN EDGE OF THE H50 JET STREAM WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...SO WILL LEAVE SOME SMALL POPS IN THAT REGION SUN-TUE. AS THE MID LVL RIDGE SHIFTS FARTHER EAST TOWARD MID WEEK...WILL LIKELY SEE POPS DWINDLE TO LESS THAN 20 PERCENT AND TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID 90S. WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...COULD SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES 100-105 WED/THU AFTERNOONS. && .AVIATION... ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 MAIN CHALLENGE WITH THE 18Z THURSDAY TAF FORECAST ISSUANCE IS HANDLING THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS AND ABOVE FOR MOST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH ROUGHLY 08Z FOR KPAH, KEVV, AND KOWB, BUT DROPPING TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT KCGI WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL FROM BILL. WITH THE SETUP OF A DIFFERENTIAL BOUNDARY NEAR KEVV, VISIBILITIES COULD DIP INTO IFR CATEGORY AFTER 08Z, CLOSER TO 09-10Z FOR KOWB. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR ILZ075-080-081-084-085-088-089-092-093. MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114. IN...NONE. KY...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SMITH SHORT TERM...RJP LONG TERM...GM AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
150 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1207 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 VIS SAT SHOWING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND CU BUILDING ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE JUST BEGINNING TO POP UP ON RECENT SCANS OF THE WSR-88D RADAR. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS HEATING BUILDS AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED. ADJUSTED GRIDS TO LATEST OBS AND TRENDS BUT OTHERWISE GRIDS ARE ON TRACK. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1000 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 LATEST SATELLITE AND OBS SUGGEST MUCH OF THE FOG SEEN THIS MORNING HAS BURNT OFF. OTHERWISE MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING ACROSS PORTION OF EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE THIS MORNING. CONVECTIVE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY AFTER 17Z. GIVEN NO MAJOR SYNOPTIC BOUNDARIES THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MUCH LIKE IT HAS BEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH MORE OF A INFLUENCE FROM MESOSCALE FEATURES AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVES. UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INPUT THE LATEST OBS INTO THE GRIDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE NOT BEGUN TO DEVELOP YET THIS MORNING DESPITE THE HRRR HINTING AT DEVELOPMENT BY 12Z. DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST AS IS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE MORNING AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND A NEW ZFP WILL NOT BE NEEDED. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE EASTERN KENTUCKY UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH ALONG THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS PUTS EAST KENTUCKY IN A VERY HOT AND MUGGY TROPICAL AIRMASS. THIS SITUATION WILL MAKE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...A WAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY WILL BEGIN TO PUSH A SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY. THIS ADDED FORCING WILL ADD TO THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A GREAT DEAL OF AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WITH A RATHER SLOW STORM MOTION. HENCE WILL KEEP A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT THROUGH TODAY AS WELL. WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS TO THE NORTH...ANY SEVERE THREAT FOR TODAY WILL BE NORTH OF I-64 WITH A MARGINAL THREAT TO THE SOUTH. HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE MENTIONED COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GOING INTO TONIGHT MAINTAINING GOOD INSTABILITY. HEADING INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY...THE REMNANTS OF BILL EDGE CLOSER TO THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY AS SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BEGINS TO ENTER THE AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO AID SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN AN ALREADY MOISTURE LADEN AND WARM AIRMASS. THE SHORT TERM PERIOD APPEARS TO FEATURE A CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCTION AND RATHER SLOW STORM MOTION. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A FLASH FLOOD THREAT IN THE HWO. AS WELL...ANY SEVERE POSSIBILITY WILL BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY STRONG CELL THAT DEVELOPS. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN EARLY IN THE PERIOD. LATEST MODEL TRENDS INDICATE A TRACK ALONG OR JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. THIS WOULD KEEP OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN THE ARC OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED PRETTY MUCH ANYWHERE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY... ESPECIALLY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LEFTOVER SURFACE LOW TRACKS BY. CONSIDERING THE RECENT DRY SPELL AND THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM...WE CURRENTLY THINK THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IS LOW. HOWEVER...TRAINING STORMS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. AS BILL WEAKENS FURTHER AND SHIFTS TO OUR EAST ON SUNDAY...A NEW FORECAST CHALLENGE AWAITS. A STOUT UPPER RIDGE WILL HAVE RELOCATED TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY AND THIS PLACES THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FORECAST MODELS HAVE SHOWN AND CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG SIGNAL FOR MCS ACTIVITY TO ORIGINATE SOMEWHERE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND/OR OHIO VALLEY AND TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA. THE TIMING OF THESE COMPLEXES IS INHERENTLY DIFFICULT THIS FAR OUT...HOWEVER A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...AND THIS WOULD INCLUDE NOCTURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE PRIMARY THREAT AREA FOR THESE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD. FINALLY...NO RELIEF FROM THE VERY HUMID CONDITIONS IS IN SIGHT. IN FACT...EVEN HOTTER TEMPERATURES THAN WE HAVE WITNESSED IN RECENT DAYS ARE LIKELY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. OUR CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES HIGHS SURGING INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S BY WEDNESDAY...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES CLIMBING TOWARDS 100. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH BEST COVERAGE GENERALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES THIS HOUR. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MAINLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. RIGHT NOW WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE DID KEEP VCTS AT MOST SITES...WHILE INTRODUCING TEMPO TS AT JKL. ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT EXPECT FOG AND LOW CEILINGS TO SET IN PARTICULARLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS AND AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE WEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS...HOWEVER HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS ANY TAF SITES. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DJ SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...DJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1207 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1207 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 VIS SAT SHOWING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND CU BUILDING ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE JUST BEGINNING TO POP UP ON RECENT SCANS OF THE WSR-88D RADAR. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS HEATING BUILDS AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED. ADJUSTED GRIDS TO LATEST OBS AND TRENDS BUT OTHERWISE GRIDS ARE ON TRACK. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1000 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 LATEST SATELLITE AND OBS SUGGEST MUCH OF THE FOG SEEN THIS MORNING HAS BURNT OFF. OTHERWISE MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING ACROSS PORTION OF EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE THIS MORNING. CONVECTIVE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY AFTER 17Z. GIVEN NO MAJOR SYNOPTIC BOUNDARIES THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MUCH LIKE IT HAS BEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH MORE OF A INFLUENCE FROM MESOSCALE FEATURES AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVES. UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INPUT THE LATEST OBS INTO THE GRIDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE NOT BEGUN TO DEVELOP YET THIS MORNING DESPITE THE HRRR HINTING AT DEVELOPMENT BY 12Z. DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST AS IS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE MORNING AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND A NEW ZFP WILL NOT BE NEEDED. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE EASTERN KENTUCKY UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH ALONG THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS PUTS EAST KENTUCKY IN A VERY HOT AND MUGGY TROPICAL AIRMASS. THIS SITUATION WILL MAKE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...A WAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY WILL BEGIN TO PUSH A SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY. THIS ADDED FORCING WILL ADD TO THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A GREAT DEAL OF AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WITH A RATHER SLOW STORM MOTION. HENCE WILL KEEP A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT THROUGH TODAY AS WELL. WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS TO THE NORTH...ANY SEVERE THREAT FOR TODAY WILL BE NORTH OF I-64 WITH A MARGINAL THREAT TO THE SOUTH. HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE MENTIONED COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GOING INTO TONIGHT MAINTAINING GOOD INSTABILITY. HEADING INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY...THE REMNANTS OF BILL EDGE CLOSER TO THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY AS SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BEGINS TO ENTER THE AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO AID SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN AN ALREADY MOISTURE LADEN AND WARM AIRMASS. THE SHORT TERM PERIOD APPEARS TO FEATURE A CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCTION AND RATHER SLOW STORM MOTION. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A FLASH FLOOD THREAT IN THE HWO. AS WELL...ANY SEVERE POSSIBILITY WILL BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY STRONG CELL THAT DEVELOPS. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN EARLY IN THE PERIOD. LATEST MODEL TRENDS INDICATE A TRACK ALONG OR JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. THIS WOULD KEEP OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN THE ARC OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED PRETTY MUCH ANYWHERE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY... ESPECIALLY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LEFTOVER SURFACE LOW TRACKS BY. CONSIDERING THE RECENT DRY SPELL AND THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM...WE CURRENTLY THINK THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IS LOW. HOWEVER...TRAINING STORMS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. AS BILL WEAKENS FURTHER AND SHIFTS TO OUR EAST ON SUNDAY...A NEW FORECAST CHALLENGE AWAITS. A STOUT UPPER RIDGE WILL HAVE RELOCATED TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY AND THIS PLACES THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FORECAST MODELS HAVE SHOWN AND CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG SIGNAL FOR MCS ACTIVITY TO ORIGINATE SOMEWHERE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND/OR OHIO VALLEY AND TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA. THE TIMING OF THESE COMPLEXES IS INHERENTLY DIFFICULT THIS FAR OUT...HOWEVER A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...AND THIS WOULD INCLUDE NOCTURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE PRIMARY THREAT AREA FOR THESE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD. FINALLY...NO RELIEF FROM THE VERY HUMID CONDITIONS IS IN SIGHT. IN FACT...EVEN HOTTER TEMPERATURES THAN WE HAVE WITNESSED IN RECENT DAYS ARE LIKELY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. OUR CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES HIGHS SURGING INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S BY WEDNESDAY...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES CLIMBING TOWARDS 100. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 654 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 MOST AREAS THIS MORNING HAVE SOME REDUCTION IN VIS AND CIGS DUE TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT HAS HINDERED FOG DEVELOPMENT AT SOME OF THE TAF SITES. ALL FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE KEPT VCTS AT THE TAF SITES TO COVER FOR THIS. EXPECT FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DJ SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
125 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 .DISCUSSION... QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE LATE MORNING WORDING FROM ZONE FCST./VII/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1051 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015/ UPDATE... TWEAK POPS/WX AND A FEW HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE AFTERNOON. DISCUSSION... THE KSHV 88D IS SHOWING RAIN AREAS WINDING DOWN OVER THE LAST HOUR WHICH IS TYPICAL WITH LOSS OF THE OVERNIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW...BUT WITH HEATING JUST ABOUT TO KICK IN GEAR WITH MORE AND MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...COVERAGE MAY RAMP AGAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS RUN THROUGH 1730Z AND THE HEAVIER ELEMENTS ARE FADING AWAY WHICH IS GOOD NEWS AS PREVIOUS RUN OFF FROM THIS MORNING IS ALREADY IMPROVED. THERE ARE TWO NEW AREAS ALREADY GUSTING OUT A BIT INTO WARMER AREAS FROM BROADDUS TO NEAR JOAQUIN IN TX AND FROM RED RIVER MARINA SOUTH...TO NEAR MINDEN AND COTTON VALLEY IN LA. OTHER STEAMERS OF SHOWERS ARE LINING UP ALONG I-30...BUT ARE NOT AS MENACING RAINWISE. MEANWHILE...THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF BILL ARE OVER SE OK NEAR MCALESTER AND POINTS JUST NORTH. LAST HOUR OBS SHOWED A GUST TO 28 KTS AT IDABEL AND 27 KTS AT TEXARKANA LAST HOUR...SO WE LEFT UP THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY. ONCE THE AFTERNOON HEATING UNCERTAINTY IS REALIZED WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT IT IS LIKELY THAT SOME OR EVEN PERHAPS MUCH OF THE FLOOD WATCH MAY BE CANCELLED AND THE LAKE WIND ADV IF BILL LIFTS QUICKER TO THE NE...BOTH COULD BE LET GO A LITTLE EARLY WITH THE NEXT ISSUANCE AT 4 PM. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015/ AVIATION... SHWRS/TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE PD. LOW CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VC OF ANY CONVECTION...BUT OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS FROM ABOUT MID MORNING TODAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT SLY WINDS SUSTAINED AT AROUND 12-18 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PD. /12/ PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015/ DISCUSSION... THE REMNANTS OF BILL IS RIGHT OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF LAKE TEXOMA WITH SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF TO OCCUR TODAY WITH WRAP AROUND ACTIVITY STILL IN PROGRESS. THE LAKE LEVEL IS ONLY ABOUT A FOOT FROM THE SPILLWAY AND ANOTHER CREST WILL BE DETERMINED AND WORKING DOWN STREAM AS RELEASES MAY BE ENHANCED BY ANOTHER SPILL. BILL IS SLOWLY MOVING NNE AT 10 MPH PER THE LATEST WPC ADVISORY. WINDS ARE ONLY 25 MPH SUSTAINED...BUT EFFECTIVELY WRAPPING UP THE MOIST TROPICAL CONNECTION THAT IS DRAPED AROUND OVER THE ARKLATEX INTO THE COASTAL BEND. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT...BUT APPEAR TO LACK FOCUS CONSIDERING THE RADAR TRENDS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE HRRR IS LOOKING GOOD TO START WITH RAPID REFRESH AND WEAKENS THE CURRENT FOCUS AND REDEVELOPS LATER THIS MORNING FROM SOUTH OF TYLER...TO NEAR TEXARKANA. EITHER WAY...HEATING WILL BE A PLAYER AND EVEN THE HRRR MAY BE OFF AS CURRENT ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY GUST OUT INTO THE WARMER AREAS. RECOVERY OF RAIN AREAS WILL BE MUCH QUICKER THAN NORMAL WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LIKELY FOR ALMOST ANYWHERE WITH MODEST CAPE IN THIS SUPER RICH TROPICAL CONNECTION THAT IS FUNNELING IN OVER THE AREA. THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS A DRY SLOT OF AIR THAT IS ESTABLISHED OVER SE OK WHICH COULD BE A BACK EDGE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE CIRCULATION SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD...BUT THE WRAP AROUND MAY KEEP TO OUR NORTH. ALSO TO NOTE...IS A LARGE DRY AIR PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF UNDER THE BERMUDA RIDGE WITH A RESULTING SHARP SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND UP TO NEAR MEMPHIS. THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION WITH ALL THE HIGH WATER IS PLACE...RECENT RAINFALL...WHAT IS ON RADAR NOW AND WHAT WILL LIKELY BE DEVELOPING WITH EVEN LIMITED HEATING. THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED FOR THE ENTIRE FOUR STATE AREA UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS COULD EVEN BE NEEDED BEYOND THAT TIME DEPENDING ON PROGRESSION OF BILL AND THE TROPICAL CONNECTION LOCATIONS TOWARD SUNDOWN. BILLS CORE WILL KEEP ACTIVITY TIGHT TONIGHT AND THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR THE SHEAR AXIS TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA TO SOME DEGREE OVERNIGHT. WE COULD SEE RAIN TOTALS TODAY AND OVERALL EVENT TOTALS GIVE US A VERY WET MONTH DESPITE THE DRY START. THIS ALONG WITH A VERY SWOLLEN SYSTEM OF LAKES...BAYOUS...RIVERS AND BACKWATER INTO THE EARLY PART OF SUMMER. /24/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 84 75 90 75 / 80 30 30 10 MLU 87 75 91 74 / 60 20 30 10 DEQ 80 72 85 72 / 80 80 40 20 TXK 84 74 89 75 / 80 60 40 20 ELD 85 74 88 74 / 80 40 40 20 TYR 85 74 89 74 / 70 40 30 10 GGG 85 75 90 74 / 60 40 30 10 LFK 86 75 90 74 / 80 20 40 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051- 059>061-070>073. LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051- 059-060-070. LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006- 010>014-017>022. OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077. LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077. TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097- 108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097- 108>112-124>126-136>138. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
426 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE SW CONUS INTO ALBERTA/SASK AND A BROAD TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES RESULTING IN WNW FLOW TOWARD UPPER MI. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES FROM MANITOBA INTO THE NRN PLAINS WAS BUILDING INTO THE AREA WITH NRLY WINDS AND DRY AIR ADVECTION THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI. VIS LOOP INDICATED THAT THE EXTENSIVE STRATOCU OVER THE NORTH HAD RAPIDLY DISSIPATED...LEAVING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE CWA. TONIGHT...HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. WITH CLEAR SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND PWATS DROPPING AOB 0.25 INCH...MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL OFF INTO THE 33 TO 36 RANGE OVER INLAND LOCATIONS. SO...PATCHY FROST WAS MENTIONED AND AN SPS ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE COLD CONDITIONS. WITH HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING LATE TONIGHT OR TOWARD DAYBREAK...PER MODELS 500-400 MB RH...TEMPS MAY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVER THE WEST LATE. FRI...SRLY WINDS DEVELOPING AS THE HIGH SLIPS OFF TO THE SE WILL BRING A RETURN OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY. INCREASING 300K-310K MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LIFT MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS LATE INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER UPPER MI WITH DRY WEATHER LINGERING. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 DURING THE LONG TERM...A LOW AMPLITUDE/PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NRN CONUS/SRN CANADA TO THE N OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE SRN CONUS. HOWEVER...IN GENERAL... THERE WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR WEAK TROFFING TO BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE UPPER LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND. FOR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES... THIS MEANS FAIRLY FREQUENT OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN...THOUGH...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SAT...MOST WILL ONLY BE ISOLD/SCT COVERAGE OF SHRA. TEMPS WILL LIKELY END UP CLOSE TO NORMAL OR A LITTLE BLO NORMAL OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. LOOKING OUT FARTHER THRU LATE JUN AND INTO EARLY JUL...CFSV2 MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THIS PATTERN MAY CONTINUE...RESULTING IN PCPN AMOUNTS MORE LIKELY BEING NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL AND TEMPS MORE LIKELY BEING NORMAL TO BLO NORMAL. EXTENDED PERIODS OF HEAT/UNCOMFORTABLE HUMIDITY AND A LACK OF PCPN APPEAR UNLIKELY THRU EARLY JUL. OVER THE WEEKEND...A COMPLEX SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL STREAK ACROSS THE NRN CONUS/SRN CANADA. MODELS REALLY DON`T SHOW ANY OF THE WAVES STANDING OUT WHICH MAKES FOR A MORE CHALLENGING FCST WITH REGARD TO PCPN...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE RANGE OF MODEL PCPN FCSTS IN RECENT DAYS. THAT SAID...TODAYS 12Z MODEL RUNS AND THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS HAVE CONSISTENTLY POINTED TOWARD SAT FOR THE BEST POTENTIAL OF PCPN/COLD FRONT ARRIVAL. SO...FCST WILL CONTINUE TO REFLECT HIGHEST POPS (LIKELY) ON SAT. PRIOR TO THAT...WITH LOW- LEVEL JET/850MB THETA-E AXIS TRANSLATING E TOWARD UPPER MI FRI NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING WAVES...CHC POPS FOR SHRA/TSTM ARE WARRANTED FOR THE W OVERNIGHT. PER RECENT MODEL TRENDS...SLOWED ONSET OF PCPN CHANCES AND LIMITED MENTION TO JUST WRN UPPER MI. DAYTIME HEATING AND ARRIVAL OF COLD FRONT SAT AFTN/EVENING WILL BRING THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN. WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40- 50KT...ORGANIZED STORMS AND SVR RISK WILL BE PRESENT IF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPS...BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE THE BIG UNKNOWN UNTIL SAT MOVES INTO THE SHORT TERM. WITH THE 12Z MODEL RUNS...THE NAM SHOWS ALMOST NO INSTABILITY SAT/SAT EVENING WHILE THE GFS SHOWS MLCAPE INCREASING INTO THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER ROUGHLY THE INTERIOR W HALF OF UPPER MI. SO AT THIS POINT...THE CURRENT DAY3 SPC OUTLOOK APPEARS ON TRACK WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR IN CNTRL/SRN WI WITH MRGL RISK RUNNING NEAR THE WI/MI BORDER AND THRU MENOMINEE COUNTY. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.5 INCHES... HVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS. HEADING INTO SUN...THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER ANY TRAILING SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT... PERHAPS GENERATING SOME LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE SHOWERS WITH DAYTIME HEATING UNDER LIGHT WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE UPPER LAKES. WILL RETAIN FLAVOR OF INHERITED FCST WITH NOTHING HIGHER THAN SCHC POPS...MAINLY IN THE INTERIOR CNTRL AND E. THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW/ZONAL FLOW REGIME NEXT WEEK IS PROBLEMATIC WITH REGARD TO TIMING/STRENGTH/TRACK OF SHORTWAVES...TYPICAL FOR THIS TYPE OF PATTERN IN THE WARM SEASON. THIS IS CERTAINLY EVIDENT WHEN LOOKING AT THE RATHER SIGNIFICANT VARIABILITY OF FEATURES IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. AT THIS POINT...THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS FOR A WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT PCPN EVENT IN THE MON THRU THU TIME FRAME. WHEN PCPN DOES OCCUR IN UPPER MI...IT WILL LIKELY BE SCT. FOR NOW...PLAN TO USE A SIMPLE CONSENSUS OF CURRENT AND RECENT MODEL RUNS TO CONSTRUCT FCST. RESULT IS SCHC TO LOW CHC POPS ON MOST DAYS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN...EXPECT DRIER AIR AND WINDS GUSTING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS...STRONGEST AT SAW. MVFR CIGS AT SAW AND IWD WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO CLEARING BY LATE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NW...PER SATELLITE TRENDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 4KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS UPPER MI 00-09Z...BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING E. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EACH ONE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT/FRI MORNING AS HIGH PRES PASSES OVER THE AREA. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES...S WINDS WILL INCREASE FRI AFTN THROUGH SAT MORNING. WINDS MAY GUST TO 15-25KT FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING OVER CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SAT AFTN. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP OVER THE LAKE. SINCE THE HIGH PRES FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL BE WEAK...WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...UNDER 20KT FOR LATE SAT THRU SUN. THE GRADUAL ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH WILL DISSIPATE ANY LINGERING FOG ON SUN. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL LINGER INTO TUE UNDER A WEAK PRES GRADIENT. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...ROLFSON AVIATION...JLB MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
243 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1105 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 ...SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TODAY... OVERVIEW: PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW ADVANCING ACROSS ONTARIO INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES REGION. ATTENDING SFC LOW ANALYZED ACROSS QUEBEC WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT STRETCHING DOWN INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND ON INTO EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. STRONGEST SYNOPTIC FORCING IS OCCURRING ACROSS EASTERN ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE. BUT WE ARE SEEING A NICE NARROW AXIS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WHICH HAS KICKED OFF A NARROW CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS IN EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. PER SPC MESO ANALYSIS...INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION IS PALTRY. NONETHELESS...PLUME OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING (SEEN ON APX 12Z SOUNDING) APPARENTLY ENOUGH TO GET SOME THUNDER ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. REST OF TODAY...SFC COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN RATHER QUICKLY TODAY. GIVEN THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND SOME DECENT HEATING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...I DO EXPECT TO SEE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN AS WE GO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HAVE REVAMPED POPS/TIMING TO REFLECT THAT THINKING WITH CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...TRANSLATING DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...SEVERAL HOURS OF HEATING SHOULD BE ABLE TO PUSH MLCAPE VALUES UP TO AROUND 500 J/KG ACROSS THE E/SE PART OF THE CWA. NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT WITH AROUND 50 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SPEED SHEARS SITTING ACROSS THE REGION...COULD GET SOME BETTER ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS AND STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. AGAIN...BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE E/SE PART OF THE CWA BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. && .NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 SURFACE RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED EAST OF MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...AS A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER ONTARIO AND MINNESOTA BEGINS TO MAKE A MOVE TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION. ONLY PRECIP TO SPEAK OF ATTM REMAINS UPSTREAM OF OUR CWA OVER UPPER MICHIGAN PER KMQT BASE REF IMAGES...DEVELOPING WITHIN AN AREA OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LACK OF INSTABILITY HAS PRECLUDED ANY THUNDER WITHIN THIS BKN LINE OF SHOWERS. PRIMARY FORECASTS CONCERN FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT ARE POPS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER AS THIS FRONT MOVES THRU OUR CWA. BOTH THE NAM AND THE RAP DEVELOP A WEAK WAVE OVER WISCONSIN THIS MORNING ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...PULLING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS A WEAK INSTABILITY AXIS PUSHES NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN TODAY. MUCAPES INCREASE TO AROUND 750 TO 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SE SECTIONS OF OUR CWA...MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM APN TO HTL. THIS IS WHERE OUR GREATEST POPS AND BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL RESIDE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THANKS TO FROPA DURING MAX DIURNAL HEATING/INSTABILITY. ALSO...SOME DESCENT SPEED SHEAR WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THIS AREA BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...FURTHER SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER DEVELOPMENT. LATEST SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS OUR SE CWA FOR A MARGINAL CHANCE OF SVR STORMS...WHICH IS REASONABLE GIVEN THE ABOVE SCENARIO. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND EXTENDED POPS INTO THE EVENING HOURS BASED ON LATEST FROPA PROJECTIONS. HAVE ALSO INCREASED CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR OUR SE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW LEVEL CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL LEND TO A LARGER SPREAD OF TEMPS TODAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S IN ERN UPR MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 70S IN OUR FAR SE CWA. && .SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE. PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: FAST MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME SHOWING NO SIGNS OF SLOWING DOWN ANYTIME IN THE NEAR FUTURE...WITH NORTHERN MICHIGAN SQUARELY CENTERED BETWEEN BROAD SOUTHERN RIDGING AND DEEP TROUGHING ROTATING AROUND THE CANADIAN ARCTIC. FAST MOVING...HARD TO TIME...WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE OVERHEAD...ALTHOUGH STILL APPEARS DISCONNECT WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN THEM AND MUCH DEEPER INSTABILITY/MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. WHILE THIS MAY PREVENT A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL FOR OUR NECK OF THE WOODS...PASSING WAVES WORKING ON A MODESTLY MOST ENVIRONMENT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES AS WE HEAD INTO THE BEGINNING OF THIS WEEKEND. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: ADDRESSING SATURDAY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. DETAILS: WORK WEEK ENDS ON A QUIET NOTE AS HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER...DESPITE SLOWLY PASSING OFF TO THE EAST. ALL STRONG WAA WILL REMAIN CENTERED WELL TO OUR WEST...WITH PERHAPS JUST SOME HINTS OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN VIA SLOWLY INCREASING CIRRUS. VERY COOL EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND NICELY TO THE SUNSHINE...BUT SHOULD STILL END UP A LEAST A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT ALL DEEPER MOISTURE AND SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL BE REMOVED WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST (THE LATTER TIED TO REMNANTS OF WHAT WAS ONCE TROPICAL STORM BILL). SLOWER IS DEFINITELY THE TREND WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT WAVE AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SATURDAY...LIKELY A RESULT OF THE PROXIMITY OF "BILL" PASSING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. WHAT MID LEVEL SUPPORT DOES ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY WILL BE IN WEAKENING MODE...ALTHOUGH NICE SURGE OF THETA-E ADVECTION AND SOME RER UPPER JET SUPPORT MAY COMPENSATE SOME. MAIN CHANCES FOR SHOWER/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL NOW LOOKS TO ARRIVE THE SECOND HALF OF SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING WHEN ABOVE FORCING INTERACTS WITH FAVORED DIURNAL INSTABILITY TRENDS. HOWEVER...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME MORNING ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER ALONG SURGE OF STRONGER MOISTURE ADVECTION TIED TO PASSING LOW LEVEL JET. MUCH LIKE THE PAST SEVERAL SIMILAR EVENTS...ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD REMAIN OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH IN VICINITY OF MUCH BETTER INSTABILITY. && .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE EXTENDED RANGE...ESPECIALLY WITH REGARDS TO ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES. JUST REALLY IMPOSSIBLE TO GET A GOOD FEEL ON SHOWER POTENTIAL SUNDAY INTO THE START OF NEXT WORK WEEK...WITH YET TO BE SEEN FAST MOVING WAVES IN OVERHEAD AGGRESSIVE FLOW AT LEAST OFFERING SOME SHOWER POTENTIAL AT TIMES. PER THE USUAL IN SUCH A PATTERN...THIS FORECAST WILL APPEAR MUCH WETTER THAN WHAT WILL LIKELY ACTUALLY OCCUR...SIMPLY AN UNFORTUNATE PRODUCT OF TIMING UNCERTAINTY. NOW...AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED...LATEST HIGHER RES GUIDANCE PROGS HAVE INCREASINGLY ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR BUILDING CENTRAL PLAINS HEAT DOME/RIDGING HEADING INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ALL-THE-WHILE TROUGHING RESIDES OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS. ABOVE IS A PRIME PATTERN FOR PERIODIC RIDGE RIDING MCS`S (SO CALLED RING OF FIRE) TO PIVOT SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. SIMPLY TOO EARLY TO SAY WITH ANY CONFIDENCE WHERE THE BEST CORRIDOR WILL ALIGN ITSELF. WILL SAY IF CURRENT TRENDS HOLD...MOST IMPRESSIVE CORRIDOR OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH...PLACING THE MOST ACTIVE TEMP/INSTABILITY GRADIENT JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST. ONLY TIME WILL TELL...OF COURSE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 243 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 COLD FRONT NOW SLICING DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN AND HAS CLEARED THE TERMINAL SITES AT THIS POINT. SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING THROUGH NE LOWER MICHIGAN ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-72. BUT AT THIS POINT...APPEARS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AT THE TERMINAL SITES HAS DIMINISHED...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CIGS OUT THERE AND THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS COOLER AIR SLIPS INTO THE REGION. CLEARING OUT TONIGHT AND A RETURN TO VFR HEADING INTO FRIDAY. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 WINDS AND WAVES WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AND STRENGTHEN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...BUT AT THIS POINT...BOTH ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND THUNDER ACROSS NE LWR MICHIGAN AND THUS THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH DRY WEATHER AND DIMINISHING WINDS/WAVES EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...NONE. LM...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...ADAM NEAR TERM...MLR SHORT TERM...MSB LONG TERM...MSB AVIATION...ADAM MARINE...MLR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1258 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 THE SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE THE CHANCE AND COVERAGE OF POSSIBLE CONVECTION ALONG SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPPING OVER THE AREA TODAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FAST WEST FLOW ALOFT. THE NORTHERN EXTENSION DEVELOPED SOME SHOWERS/THUNDER OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTAS AND IS NOW WEAKENING. THE OTHER A DECENT SIZED MCS TRAVELING ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND DROPPING INTO NEBRASKA. A LOT OF CIRRUS DEBRIS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. THE NORTHERN SYSTEM IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. VARIOUS MODELS SUGGEST INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND WITH LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT...MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION AS IT DROPS SOUTH DURING THE MAX HEATING OF THE DAY. VARIOUS HIRES MODELS AND THE HRRR IS NOW TRYING TO DEVELOP ISOLATED CONVECTION WITH THE BOUNDARY. IT APPEARS AS THE WAVE MOVES FARTHER EAST THE UPPER JET STREAK TRANSLATES FARTHER EAST...THE BETTER FORCING FROM IT IS GENERATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN CWA. MAIN QUESTION WAS HOW FAR WEST WITH THE SMALL POP TO GO. THE NAM AND HIRES NMM WERE THE STRONGEST WITH DEVELOPMENT/INSTABILITY...BUT THE GFS STILL MANAGED TO DROP SOME QPF INTO WESTERN WI. WILL HOLD SMALL POP TO THE EAST METRO INTO WESTERN WI FOR NOW. SHOULD SEE DIURNAL NATURE TO ANY DEVELOPMENT AND SHOULD DIE OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING. CLEARING WITH MORE CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM MORE DAKOTAS ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT. KEPT IT DRY FOR NOW...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH DAKOTAS SYSTEM FOR ANY VARIABLE SHIFTING OF COMPLEX OVERNIGHT. IT COULD AFFECT THE FAR WEST BEFORE DAYBREAK. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 A ZONAL FLOW REGIME PERSISTS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES FOSTERING MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SAID PATTERN WILL ALSO BE CONDUCIVE TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. AT DAYBREAK FRIDAY...EXPECT ELEVATED CONVECTION TO BE ONGOING OVER THE DAKOTAS...GENERATED BY ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A WARM FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE DAY AS THE FIRST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVES ARRIVES...BUT THE BULK LOOKS TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS A CAP BUILDS IN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WILL LIKELY SEE A BREAK IN STORMS UNTIL WE CAN TAP INTO THE BUILDING INSTABILITY. THE AFTERNOON ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO THE WEST OVER THE DAKOTAS...AND THEN CONGEAL INTO A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THIS HAPPENS...THERE LOOKS TO BE A POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR FORECAST. THIS THREAT APPEARS TO LIE BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z SATURDAY...WITH RESIDUAL ACTIVITY IN WI SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING A LULL IN THE STORMS...BUT THEN MORE WEAK EMBEDDED ENERGY ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THESE TYPES OF WAVES IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW IS OF COURSE LOW...SO HAVE HELD ON TO 20-30 POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRING SLIGHTLY MORE TO FOCUS ON...AS A BAROCLINIC ZONE LIFTS TOWARD THE AREA. HOWEVER...18.00Z GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS SHOW VASTLY DIFFERENT TIMING/PLACEMENT SCENARIOS. HAVE THEREFORE INCLUDED 30-40 POPS AT THIS POINT UNTIL DIFFERENCES RESOLVE SOMEWHAT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 A RATHER EXTENSIVE VFR CU FIELD WILL COVER MOST OF THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF KEAU WITH LESSER CHANCES HEADING WEST. NORTHERLY WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WHILE VEERING TO THE SE BY FRIDAY MORNING. KMSP...FEW CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. SOUTHERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BECOME GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON...REACHING UP TO 22 KNOTS. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI NITE...MAINLY VFR WITH OCNL PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR IN SHRA/TSRA LATE. WINDS SE 10-15 KT. SAT...MAINLY VFR WITH OCNL PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR IN SHRA/TSRA. WINDS SSW 10-15 KT BECOMING NW IN AFTERNOON. SUN...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHC OF MVFR SHRA/TSRA. N WINDS 5-10 KTS. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DWE LONG TERM...LS AVIATION...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
355 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2015 .SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT... CURRENT FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK ON TRACK WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS A GOOD POSSIBILITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OUT TOWARD THE DAKOTA BORDERS. WEAK RIDGING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA WILL FLATTEN WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS AS A SHORTWAVE OVER IDAHO MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. AN EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW COMBINED WITH LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR EAST HAS KEPT TEMPEATURES IN THE LOWER 60S SO FAR TODAY. SATELLITE IS SHOWING AREAS OF SUN ACROSS OUR CENTRAL ZONES WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. CURRENTLY BEST CAPES ARE WHERE THERE HAS BEEN SUN. EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND CLOUDS ARE KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE CAPPED AND SOUNDINGS CONCUR WITH THIS. HOWEVER...AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND MOVES OVER OUR AREA THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO BREAK BY LATE AFTERNOON. MAJORITY OF THE ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW STORMS FIRING WEST OF BILLINGS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND MOVING EAST INTO THE BILLINGS AREA BY 7 OR 8 PM. HOWEVER...SOME MODELS TAKE THE STORMS JUST NORTH AND SOUTH OF BILLINGS SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON EXACT LOCATIONS OF STORM DEVELOPMENT. ALL PARAMETERS POINT TO THE POSSIBILITY OF ANY STORM CONTAINING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. MODELS THEN SHOW INDIVIDUAL STORMS FORMING MORE OF A COMPLEX OF STORMS JUST EAST OF BILLINGS BY MID EVENING. LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN IS NOW SHOWING A COUPLE SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN ROSEBUD...POWDER RIVER AND CARTER COUNTIES. ALL THE MODELS AGREE ON MERGING THE STORMS INTO AN MCS LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY FOR OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. WE REMAIN CONCERNED WITH THE CURRENT CAP BUT WE STILL BELIEVE IT WILL BREAK IN PLACES. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE ACTUALLY SHOWS FRIDAY TO HAVE BETTER CHANCES FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM EVENT THAN TODAY. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST AS TONIGHTS STORMS MAY PLACE A ROLE IN HOW THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REACT FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS HIGHLIGHTING AREAS FROM BILLINGS EASTWARD WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A DAMAGING WIND EVENT. THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING TO BE LESS ACTIVE AS A MORE STABLE AIRMASS WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. HOOLEY .LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU... A FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WHILE THE ENSEMBLES WERE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OVER THE UPCOMING PATTERN...THERE WERE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS OF THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF. SUN AND SUN NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE AREA AS RIDGING MOVES OVER THE AREA. SOME ENERGY AND MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW MON AND MON NIGHT BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. MODELS DISAGREED ON THE PROGRESSION OF A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TUE AND TUE NIGHT SO LEFT INHERITED POPS ACROSS THE AREA ALONE. DIFFERENCES CONTINUED THROUGH WED NIGHT DUE TO THE PACIFIC WAVE...SO AGAIN MADE NO CHANGES. THE GFS SHOWED HIGH CAPES OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH WED...AND BULK SHEAR WAS STRONG AS WELL. THE GFS WAS STRONGER WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAN THE ECMWF...SO IF THE GFS VERIFIES...THERE WILL BE POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH WED. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THU. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REACH INTO THE 80S WHICH IS A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. ARTHUR && .AVIATION... THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE KLVM AREA AFTER 21Z AND SPREAD E INTO THE KBIL AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z. THE STORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AND WILL CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS...POSSIBLE LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THE STORMS WILL SPREAD E...AFFECTING THE KMLS AND KSHR AREAS BETWEEN 03Z AND 07Z WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLE HAIL. THE STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY 12Z FRI. EXPECT AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE AREA AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL. EXPECT AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. ARTHUR && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 061/084 056/081 056/080 055/084 058/083 059/082 059/085 33/T 22/T 21/B 12/T 22/T 33/T 32/T LVM 054/083 047/079 048/081 050/083 051/083 051/081 050/085 34/T 22/T 21/B 22/T 23/T 33/T 32/T HDN 060/087 056/082 055/081 056/086 057/085 058/084 059/086 33/T 42/T 21/B 11/B 12/T 33/T 32/T MLS 061/086 057/081 055/080 055/081 058/082 060/081 057/082 63/T 41/B 22/W 12/T 22/T 33/T 32/T 4BQ 061/086 056/080 056/081 056/083 059/082 059/081 057/082 63/T 61/B 22/W 22/T 22/T 33/T 32/T BHK 060/084 055/080 053/078 053/077 056/078 058/078 054/078 63/T 61/U 22/T 22/T 22/T 44/T 32/T SHR 056/084 052/077 052/078 053/084 055/083 055/080 054/082 23/T 52/T 21/B 11/B 12/T 32/T 22/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
359 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 REMNANTS OF MCS THAT ROLED THRU NEBR THIS MORNING NOW OBSCURED BY THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE FORMER TS BILL IN ERN OK. STRATUS LEFT BEHIND HAS REMAINED ACROSS MUCH OF WRN AND NC NEBR AND HAS LIMITED INSOLATION TODAY. LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW ALSO KEEPING MOISTURE IN PLACE. FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT PV ANOMALY MOVING ACROSS THE PAC NW...WITH POSSIBLY A MORE SUBTLE WAVE MOVING ACROSS NRN WY. UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE SWRN U.S. AND INTO THE ROCKIES AS WELL. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 AS MENTIONED...STRATUS LINGERED MUCH LONGER THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED WHICH HAS LIMITED INSOLATION AND WITH PAIRED WITH LIGHT ERLY FLOW...TEMPS HAVE STRUGGLED ACCORDINGLY. MORNING RAOB INDICATED 1.22 INCHES OF PW WHICH IS AT AROUND THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS DATE...THO PARTLY AFFECTED BY MORNING CONVECTION. STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE AS ARE BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION. WHAT IS LACKING CURRENTLY IN THE AREA IS LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT NEEDED TO FOCUS CONVERGENCE ALONG ANY OF THE BOUNDARIES REMAINING. SUBTLE PV ANOMALY MOVING ACROSS NRN WY IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS CLOSER TO LARGER SCALE SFC BOUNDARY THAT STRETCHED INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF WY/MT...AS A RESULT OF HIGH SETTLING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING AS HEIGHTS FALL IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE RESULTANT MCS DEVELOPED BY THE MODELS PROPAGATES SEWD OVERNIGHT ACROSS SD AND MAY APPROACH NRN ZONES BY 12Z. FURTHER SOUTH...LLJ DEVELOPS HELPING MCS PROP SEWD BY WILL ALSO COMBINE WITH LL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE STRATUS ONCE AGAIN. SOME HINT ALSO OF FOG BUT CONFIDENCE LOW ON ACTUAL VSBY RESTRICTION AND LEANING MORE TWD STRATUS DEVELOPMENT...SO NO MENTION OF FOG IN THE GRIDS AT THIS POINT BUT WILL MONITOR THIS. HAVE LEFT SOME SLIGHT POPS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE WEST FOR EVENING CONVECTION AND ALSO OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH PREVIOUS MENTION OF MCS DEVELOPMENT FURTHER N...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP IS LOW. ASSUMING STRATUS BURNS OFF QUICKER TMRW BETTER INSOLATION AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING RIDGE IN THE WEST SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH ABOVE AVE. LEE TROUGH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WILL ALSO ALLOW SRLY WINDS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHOULD BRING A SLIGHT COOL DOWN...HOWEVER UNSURE HOW MUCH THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 700 MB TEMPS AT 15 TO 16 C WHICH IS A STRONG CAP. COOLER TEMPS ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE WILL COMBINE WITH A RIDGE RUNNING SHORT WAVE TO SPARK A MCS. THIS COULD CLIP NORTHERN NEB...OTHERWISE MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. SATURDAY RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SLIGHTLY AND ANOTHER MCS IS EXPECTED. MODELS ARE FURTHER SOUTH THIS TIME AND WILL SEE A BETTER SHOT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. RIDGE REDEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A RISE IN TEMPERATURES AND WILL LIKELY PUSH MOST IF NOT ALL THE STORM ACTIVITY INTO THE DAKOTAS. WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS NEAR THE BORDER. MEANWHILE TEMPS SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL. MODELS BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE TOWARDS THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONALLY THE MODELS ARE TOO QUICK TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR AS THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS MAY NEED TO BE DELAYED. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 DIFFICULT FCST FOR CIGS/VSBY AS MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH IDENTIFYING AREAS OF LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT MCS. RAP HAS A DECENT IDEA NOW AND DOES KEEP LOW CLOUDS IN THE KLBF AND KVTN TAF AREAS THROUGH THE DAY. TYPICALLY IN UPSLOPE REGIMES DURING SUMMERS WITH ABOVE AVE PRECIP LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER LONGER INTO THE AFTERNOON THAN MODELS SUGGEST...ESPECIALLY IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY. HAVE SIDED WITH THE IDEA THAT THESE LOW CLOUDS MAY GO BKN FOR A TIME...BUT WILL LIKELY RETURN OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS SOME REDUCTIONS IN VSBY SINCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOT SCOURED OUT IN LIGHT WIND SCENARIOS. THEREFORE TAFS FAVOR IFR CONDITIONS THOUGH THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR VSBYS TO GO BELOW IFR AFTER 10Z OR SO AT KLBF...BUT CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVE FOR TIMING AND DEGREE OF VSBY REDUCTION. HAVE REMOVED TSRA MENTION AT EACH SITE DUE TO A LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN BOUNDARY LOCATIONS AND UPPER FORCING SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW CONVERGENCE TO INCREASE ALONG ANY BOUNDARY TO GET CI. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JWS SHORT TERM...JWS LONG TERM...MASEK AVIATION...JWS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1239 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 930 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 UPDATED FORECAST TO DEPICT PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD TRENDS. FCST CHALLENGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY IS TO DETERMINE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. MODELS HAVE NOT DONE WELL DEPICTING THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT LOCATION OR TIMING IN THE LAST FEW DAYS LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN FCST. INTERROGATION OF SFC FEATURES WILL BE CRITICAL TO THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TODAY. UPDATE ISSUED AT 501 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 UPDATED FORECAST TO DROP SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 AFTER THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY...THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE INTO WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION...AND SHOULD BE LOCATED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM THE PANHANDLE INTO FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA OR NORTHEAST COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK PERTURBATION ALOFT WILL BE CROSSING NORTHERN WYOMING MIDDAY...AND EMERGE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON. BACKED SOUTHEAST TO EAST SURFACE WINDS WILL RESIDE EAST OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. EXPECT THE SOUTHEAST WINDS TO CONTINUE TO DRAW LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE NORTHWEST INTO THE AREA...WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. THE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE 80S ALONG WITH MODESTLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND CREATE VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON. SFC BASED CAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 3000 TO 4000 J/KG WILL COMBINE WITH AROUND 45 KTS OF BULK SHEAR...AND CREATE CONDITIONS THAT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO BE A POSSIBLE INITIATION POINT FOR STORMS BY MID AFTERNOON. OTHER STORMS COULD MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST. STORMS COULD ONCE AGAIN GROW UPSCALE INTO ANOTHER MCS TONIGHT. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 HEIGHTS RISE FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO EXPANDING UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A STOUT CAPPING INVERSION DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION AS WELL...WITH VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE. WITH THAT SAID...CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE AS STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERSPREAD THE AREA. SHEAR WOULD ALSO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS...BUT WITH LITTLE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND A STOUT CAP IN PLACE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY DURING THE DAY. FRIDAY NIGHT THUNDERSTORMS MAY SKIRT NORTHERN NEBRASKA AS AN MCS TAKES SHAPE ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA ON EDGE OF CAP. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE QUITE WARM...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND 90S. FAIRLY HUMID AS WELL...AS GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. A SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL SKIRT EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO NEBRASKA SATURDAY...ALONG WITH WEAKENING THE CAPPING INVERSION SLIGHTLY. THE FRONT WILL STALL SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA OR NORTHERN KANSAS...THEN BEGIN MOVING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS WITH THE BOUNDARY IN THE AREA. EARLY NEXT WEEK HEIGHTS BUILD ONCE AGAIN AS RIDGE ALOFT EXPANDS ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE FOR STORMS AT BEST. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 DIFFICULT FCST FOR CIGS/VSBY AS MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH IDENTIFYING AREAS OF LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT MCS. RAP HAS A DECENT IDEA NOW AND DOES KEEP LOW CLOUDS IN THE KLBF AND KVTN TAF AREAS THROUGH THE DAY. TYPICALLY IN UPSLOPE REGIMES DURING SUMMERS WITH ABOVE AVE PRECIP LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER LONGER INTO THE AFTERNOON THAN MODELS SUGGEST...ESPECIALLY IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY. HAVE SIDED WITH THE IDEA THAT THESE LOW CLOUDS MAY GO BKN FOR A TIME...BUT WILL LIKELY RETURN OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS SOME REDUCTIONS IN VSBY SINCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOT SCOURED OUT IN LIGHT WIND SCENARIOS. THEREFORE TAFS FAVOR IFR CONDITIONS THOUGH THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR VSBYS TO GO BELOW IFR AFTER 10Z OR SO AT KLBF...BUT CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVE FOR TIMING AND DEGREE OF VSBY REDUCTION. HAVE REMOVED TSRA MENTION AT EACH SITE DUE TO A LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN BOUNDARY LOCATIONS AND UPPER FORCING SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW CONVERGENCE TO INCREASE ALONG ANY BOUNDARY TO GET CI. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JWS SHORT TERM...TAYLOR LONG TERM...TAYLOR AVIATION...JWS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
248 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HOT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SPREADING OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES WILL KEEP NORTHERN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS STALLED OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO NEXT WEEK. EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR IN THIS PATTERN. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ON RADAR...FEW HAVE ANY LIGHTING STRIKES BUT EXPECT THAT TO CHANGE FOR REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HRRR RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOWER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH TD VALUES IN THE LOWER 70S IN SPOTS EXPECTED SOME LOCALLY HEAVY SHORT LIVED DOWNPOURS. FRONT ARRIVES LATER THIS EVENING WITH A SCATTERED LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS WILL BE DRIER AIR AS THE SURFACE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... SFC HIGH WITH DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO CWA FRIDAY. FRONT WILL NOT BE TOO FAR SOUTH OF PA/MD BORDER AND AN ISOLATED SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE THERE. COOL NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 50S FOR A LARGE PART OF THE AREA AND EVEN SOME 40S IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRES RIDGE FROM NEW ENGLAND DOWN THROUGH NY AND PA. REMNANTS OF BILL MOVING INTO OHIO WITH A WARM FRONT SPREADING PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTHWEST PA. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING IN ADVANCE OF THIS INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO WESTERN PA AND SPREADING EAST. FORECAST HAS THE CENTER OF WHAT WILL BE LEFT OF BILL MOVING EAST ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND THEN OFF THE EAST COAST BY SUNDAY EVENING. A WIDESPREAD ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE WITH LESS TO THE NORTH OF HERE. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AND SO THIS IS STILL A CONCERN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL FOR DROUGHT RELIEF. THE MAIN CONCERN REMAINS FOR POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED FLOODING IF THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS. CLOUDS AND HUMIDITY WILL LINGER BEHIND UNTIL THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. UPR LEVEL RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH NW FLOW ACROSS PA BEGINNING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODEL UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FOR MID WEEK ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT SYSTEMS. GENERALLY LOOKING AT A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO PA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING SPREADING MORE SHOWERS ACROSS THE STATE. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH WITH WEATHER CLEARING BY TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY BRINGING COOLER NIGHTS AND DRIER WEATHER. BUT THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHING SW PA WITH A WARM FRONT AND SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SCT CONVECTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR TO IFR CHANCES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...ESPECIALLY BFD AND JST AND ARES THAT RECEIVE ANY PRECIPITATION. VFR SHOULD DOMINATE THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. OUTLOOK... FRI...BCMG VFR. SAT-MON...VFR/MVFR WITH PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA. LOCALLY +RA PSBL SAT NGT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ROSS NEAR TERM...ROSS SHORT TERM...ROSS LONG TERM...WATSON AVIATION...ROSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
223 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HOT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SPREADING OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES WILL KEEP NORTHERN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS STALLED OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO NEXT WEEK. EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR IN THIS PATTERN WITH AN ENHANCED RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN ON SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF BILL. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... LOTS OF SHORT LIVED LIGHT SHOWERS ON RADAR THIS MORNING. HRRR RUNS SUPPORT SCT CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND SPC HAS THE AREA IN THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY. MAIN SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE ISOLATED HIGH WINDS IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALSO POSSIBLE...THOUGH QPF IS RELATIVELY LIGHT GIVEN THE SHORT DURATION OF THE RAINFALL. A STRONG S/WV TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS SERN CANADA AND SEND A SFC COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL PA AFTER 00Z FRI. EXPECT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE FRONT ALTHOUGH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SUGGESTS A LOWERING INTENSITY/COVERAGE OF PCPN. DRIER AIR SHOULD WORK INTO NWRN AND NCENTRAL PA INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AS THE SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE PA/MD LINE BY 12Z FRI. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... FRIDAY IS LOOKING MAINLY DRY OVERALL AS DECENT SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND DIRECTS DRIER/LOWER HUMIDITY AIR INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. HOWEVER STILL CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM OVER FAR SOUTHERN PA WHERE PWS REMAIN MODESTLY HIGH AND MODELS SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY. A COOLER AND LESS HUMID NIGHT LOOKS IN STORE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT READINGS POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S OVER THE NCENTRAL MTNS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRES RIDGE FROM NEW ENGLAND DOWN THROUGH NY AND PA. REMNANTS OF BILL MOVING INTO OHIO WITH A WARMM FRONT SPREADING PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTHWEST PA. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING IN ADVANCE OF THIS INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO WESTERN PA AND SPREADING EAST. FORECAST HAS THE CENTER OF WHAT WILL BE LEFT OF BILL MOVING EAST ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND THEN OFF THE EAST COAST BY SUNDAY EVENING. A WIDESPREAD ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE WITH LESS TO THE NORTH OF HERE. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AND SO THIS IS STILL A CONCERN SATUDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL FOR DROUGHT RELIEF. THE MAIN CONCERN REMAINS FOR POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED FLOODING IF THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS. CLOUDS AND HUMIDITY WILL LINGER BEHIND UNTIL THE COLD FRONT SWEPTS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. UPR LEVEL RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH NW FLOW ACROSS PA BEGINNING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODEL UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FOR MID WEEK ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT SYSTEMS. GENERALLY LOOKING AT A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO PA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING SPREADING MORE SHOWERS ACROSS THE STATE. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH WITH WEATHER CLEARING BY TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY BRINGING COOLER NIGHTS AND DRIER WEATHER. BUT THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHING SW PA WITH A WARM FRONT AND SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... LATEST RADAR SHOWS A PRECIPITATION BAND CONTINUING TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST...AFFECTING MDT AND LNS. AS THIS WEAK PRECIPITATION MOVES EASTWARD...STRONGER BANDS OF LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 14Z TO 16Z. THE LOW CIGS AND VSBYS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING BEFORE LIFTING FOR ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 16Z TO 18Z. DAYTIME HEATING AND THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. MVFR TO IFR CHANCES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...ESPECIALLY BFD AND JST AND ARES THAT RECEIVE ANY PRECIPITATION. VFR SHOULD DOMINATE THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. OUTLOOK... FRI...BCMG VFR. SAT-MON...VFR/MVFR WITH PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA. LOCALLY +RA PSBL SAT NGT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...ROSS/STEINBUGL SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL LONG TERM...WATSON AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1242 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1042 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 LOW CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO NORTHEAST SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN SO HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. HRRR PICKING UP ON THIS PRETTY WELL AND SHOWS CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE. CURRENT HIGH TEMPS APPEAR ON TRACK FOR THE TIME BEING SO NO BIG CHANGES THERE. FORECAST FOR TODAY REMAINS DRY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 REMNANT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE COMPLEX WHICH TRACKED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA LAST EVENING IS ONGOING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST CWA. THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST...EXITING THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS DEVELOP A 30+ KT LLJ AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODELS SUGGEST INITIAL STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE NOSE OF THE JET...BUT THEN TRACK FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. CERTAINLY AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT AS 0-6 KM SHEAR TOPS OUT AROUND 50 KTS. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CAP WILL BE OVER THE CWA THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER /700 MB TEMPS RANGE FROM 10 TO 14 C FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA/. WHILE MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING IN THE CONSENSUS DEPARTMENT...IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER AND WILL AGAIN BE A LATE NIGHT SHOW DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND THE SURFACE FRONT. SEVERE PARAMETERS STILL LOOK RATHER IMPRESSIVE...AND SPC HAS PLACED THE NORTHERN CWA INTO A MARGINAL RISK. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 FAST AND RELATIVELY FLAT MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM. THIS MEANS PERIODIC MCS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. UNFORTUNATELY TIMING ISSUES ABOUND WITH THE DIFFERENT MODELS AND THUS A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH TO POPS HAD TO BE USED. NEEDLESS TO SAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH THIS MORNING ON DETERMINISTIC DETAILS. A LL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE HANGING OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD...LENDING MORE SUPPORT FOR PERIODIC SHOWERS/STORMS. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 AN AREA OF MVFR STRATUS IS ONCE AGAIN IMPACTING THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THE MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS NEAR KABR/KATY AND WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER KMBG BETWEEN 18Z AND 19Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND PUSH ACROSS THE CWA. KMBG WILL SEE STORMS BEGIN BETWEEN 6Z AND 9Z WHILE OTHER SITES WILL POTENTIALLY SEE SOME STORMS CLOSER TO 12Z. THEN ANOTHER AREA OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR KMBG/KPIR. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...TMT SHORT TERM...SERR LONG TERM...TDK AVIATION...WISE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
342 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2015 .SHORT TERM... (Tonight and Friday) Bill remnants well to the northeast, with a weak shear axis draped from the Hill Country northeast into the center of Bill. Have continued to see scattered showers and storms across the Hill Country and these should continue. Both the HRRR and the TTU WRF to a lesser extent show a little convection developing later this afternoon across much of the remainder of the area. Will continue the mention of a few isolated showers and storms for a few hours this evening. A few storms possible again on Friday afternoon across the southeast as the shear axis slowly erodes, but rain chances at most locations will be so small that will not mention in the forecast. Otherwise, warm and humid air mass in place with surface dewpoints hanging near 70 in most locations. .LONG TERM... (Friday Night through Thursday) Upper high pressure will continue to build eastward over the southwestern states this weekend as an inverted upper trough expands into south Texas from northern Mexico. There is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms associated with the Mexican disturbance over the Interstate 10 corridor Saturday afternoon and through Saturday night. The presence of the Mexican upper low will keep a slight chance of rainfall over primarily the southern portions of the forecast area south of Interstate 20 through Monday night. As the center of the upper high pressure area moves east over the southern Plains late Monday the upper inverted trough will be deflected to our west as will any associated rainfall. The forecast will therefore remain dry Monday through Thursday. Temperatures will remain seasonal with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to the lower 90s and morning lows around 70. 15 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 71 91 72 91 72 / 10 10 5 5 5 San Angelo 71 90 70 89 70 / 20 10 5 5 10 Junction 70 87 71 87 71 / 20 20 10 20 20 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
102 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 .AVIATION... /18Z TAFS/ CONCERNS...THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND MVFR CIGS FRIDAY MORNING AT KACT. POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AND MVFR CIGS IN THE METROPLEX. KACT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING AROUND KACT AND WILL CARRY A VCTS WITH VFR CONDITIONS OTHERWISE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST MVFR CIGS AT KACT FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL RETAIN THE BKN017 FROM 09-14Z. THERE IS A CHANCE THE STRATUS MAY NOT HAPPEN AND WILL UPDATE THE TAF AS NECESSARY. SOUTH WINDS GENERALLY AOB 10 KTS WILL PREVAIL. DFW AIRPORTS... WILL CARRY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORING FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION AFFECTING ANY OF THE DFW TAF SITES. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MAINLY BE EAST TO SOUTH OF DFW...BUT ITS POSSIBLE ONE MAY DEVELOP OR MOVE NEAR A TAF SITE. THE WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE WEST AT 8-15 KTS BUT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CIGS AFFECTING THE DFW TAF SITES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ONLY KDAL WILL BE AFFECTED BY MVFR STRATUS WHILE THE REMAINING SITES REMAIN VFR. FOR NOW...HAVE OPTED TO PREVAIL A SCT021 GROUP FROM 12-17Z. IT IS POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE A BRIEF TIME PERIOD WITHIN THAT WINDOW WHERE SKIES ARE BROKEN MVFR AT ANY OF THE AIRPORTS. JLDUNN && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015/ RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL STILL HAS A GOOD CIRCULATION THAT WAS CENTERED NORTHWEST OF DURANT OKLAHOMA AS OF 330 AM. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUED ALONG THE RED RIVER COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS AND THE MAIN FEEDER BAND EXTENDED SOUTHEAST OF A COLLEGE STATION TO TYLER TO TEXARKANA LINE. THE QUESTION FOR TODAY IS HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL THE FORECAST AREA HAVE. THE COMPUTER MODELS VARY QUITE A LOT ON THIS QUESTION WITH THE NAM KEEPING MOST OF THE RAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF I-20 LATE AFTERNOON. THE HRRR AND TEXAS TECH MODELS INDICATE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TODAY PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST OF A SULPHUR SPRINGS TO COMANCHE LINE WITH SOME BANDS OF LIGHTER RAIN NORTH OF I-20. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT THE BEST POPS/60 TO 80 PERCENT/ ALONG THE RED RIVER AND ALSO EAST OF I-35. HAVE KEPT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALONG THE RED RIVER...AND ALSO FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A BONHAM TO TERRELL TO HILLSBORO TO KILLEEN LINE UNTIL 7 PM. WE TOYED WITH THE IDEA OF A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR TODAY...BUT DECIDED INSTEAD TO GO WITH WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 80 IN THE NORTHEAST THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE WEST. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE EVEN MORE ON THE DECREASE TONIGHT WITH THE TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVING FARTHER AWAY...SO HAVE LEFT SOME LOW POPS ACROSS BUT FAR WESTERN COUNTIES FOR THIS EVENING...AND THEN JUST EAST OF I-35 AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY...SO HAVE KEPT 20 PERCENT POPS AREA WIDE. AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR THE WEEKEND...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. EAST NORTHEAST INTO THE OKLAHOMA. AT THE SAME TIME...AN INVERTED 500MB TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO THE BIG COUNTRY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF I-20 AND WEST OF I-45 SUNDAY. THIS INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD MONDAY AND TUESDAY INTO FAR WEST TEXAS AND INTO MEXICO. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TAKING HOLD...DRY WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 58 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 89 74 93 76 92 / 30 20 20 10 5 WACO, TX 90 73 92 74 91 / 40 20 20 5 10 PARIS, TX 80 71 88 73 90 / 60 50 20 10 10 DENTON, TX 86 70 92 74 91 / 30 20 20 10 5 MCKINNEY, TX 86 71 92 73 91 / 40 30 20 10 10 DALLAS, TX 89 75 93 76 91 / 30 20 20 10 10 TERRELL, TX 87 72 92 74 90 / 50 30 20 10 10 CORSICANA, TX 86 73 91 73 90 / 50 20 20 5 10 TEMPLE, TX 89 72 90 73 90 / 50 20 20 5 10 MINERAL WELLS, TX 91 70 92 72 92 / 20 20 20 5 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ093>095- 105>107-120>123-134-135-145>148-158>162-174-175. && $$ 82/69
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1244 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. A WEAK FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA WILL OSCILLATE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND AND BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY INTERACT WITH MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL TO BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1015 AM EDT THURSDAY... WEAK FRONT HAS SLIPPED BACK NORTH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH OVERALL WEST TO SW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AND DRIER AIR ALOFT AS SEEN OFF MORNING SOUNDINGS. ALSO GIVEN LOWER PWATS AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN...APPEARS CONVECTIVE THREAT MUCH LOWER AT LEAST EARLY ON ESPCLY WITH THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT NOW TO THE NE UNDER LACK OF FORCING ALOFT. APPEARS BEST FOCUS WILL AGAIN BE WITH CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES WHERE MORE IN THE WAY OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING APPEARS LIKELY. STRENGTH AND DEGREE OF MIXING WITH THE WEST WIND AND CORRESPONDING DOWNSLOPE THE KEY TO SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST AS SHOULD SEE QUITE A BIT LESS OR DELAYED COVERAGE IF WINDS STAY BETTER MIXED INTO AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON. LATEST HRRR AGAIN THE WETTEST WITH ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT BLUE RIDGE AND SOME CLUSTERING SE WEST VA LATER ON WHEN MIXING WEAKENS AND PERHAPS A FAINT UPSTREAM WEAK IMPULSE APPROACHES. REMAINDER OF SOLUTIONS INCLUDING THE 12Z NAM MUCH LESS AMBITIOUS...WITH COVERAGE MAINLY WEST THIS EVENING WHEN CAPPING ALOFT FADES...AND MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT WILL BE SAGGING BACK SOUTH LATE. THUS TRIMMED BACK POPS WHILE RUNNING WITH LOW CHANCES WEST...AND MAINLY 20-30 COVERAGE BLUE RIDGE EAST WHERE THE FLOW MAY BACK SW A LITTLE MORE. OTRW ANOTHER VERY HOT/HUMID AFTERNOON UNDER MOSTLY/PARTLY SUNNY SKIES PER CI/CU...WITH THICKNESS PUSHING MID/UPPER 90S EAST GIVEN WEAK DOWNSLOPE AND 85-90 WEST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY... STARTING THE DAY OFF WITH A FOG IN A COUPLE AREAS THANKS TO WET SOILS FROM RAINFALL WEDNESDAY EVENING...AS WELL AS LIGHT WINDS AND DECREASING CLOUD COVER. ANY FOG WHICH DEVELOPS WILL BE QUICK TO BURN OFF AFTER 9 AM AS HEATING INCREASES. THE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE MORE DOMINATED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY...RESULTING IN GENERALLY WESTERLY WINDFLOW. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS MORNING...HOWEVER THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY...ALLOWING SUBTLE DISTURBANCES TO PASS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460 BEGINNING AROUND LUNCHTIME AS ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE ENTERS FROM THE WEST. AS THE DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...LIKELY SOLIDIFYING INTO A BROKEN LINE AS THEY PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE. STRONG HEATING TODAY FROM THE DOWNSLOPE WINDFLOW WILL ALLOW THE LOW LEVELS TO DRY OUT...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS WITH THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN WITH SOME OF THE LARGER STORMS. AS THIS AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS EXITS...WILL ALSO HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE TO OUR NORTHWEST THURSDAY EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS ANOTHER POTENTIAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO RIVER. STILL A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO SAY AT THIS POINT HOW FAR INTO OUR AREA THESE STORMS WILL ADVANCE OR WHAT SHAPE THEY WILL BE IN WHEN THEY ARRIVE...BUT GIVEN THE TIMING OF THEIR PASSAGE...EXPECT THAT THEY WILL BE BELOW SEVERE INTENSITY. THE COMBINATION OF RIDGING ALOFT AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LOW TO MID 90S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT... AND MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 445 AM EDT THURSDAY... EXPECT BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER SINKS SOUTHWARD. CONVECTION WILL PULSE UP DURING LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE EVENING. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND INSTABILITY APPEAR TO BE MODEST... HOWEVER WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STORMS BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN ACTIVITY WILL PUSH EAST OF OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT... LEAVING ONLY LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...BRINGING WITH IT A NORTHEASTERLY WINDSHIFT ACROSS THE AREA. ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE RIDGELINES COMBINED WITH INCREASING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL WILL TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF PULSE VARIETY STORMS BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE MAIN ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH BILL WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING THAT THE SYSTEM WILL PASS UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...DRAWING WITH IT A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...WITH PWATS AROUND 2.2 INCHES COMING INTO THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. BELIEVE THE SYSTEM WILL PLAY OUT AS A SOLID LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AS IT ENTERS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...AFFECTING MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS OF VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA. THE REMNANTS OF BILL WILL MOVE QUICKLY HOWEVER...SO DO NOT BELIEVE THAT HEAVY RAIN WILL LAST FOR MORE THAN A FEW HOURS BEFORE EXITING THE AREA. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... ON MONDAY THE TS REMNANTS WILL BE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND GETTING ABSORBED BY ANOTHER LOW/FRONTAL SYSTEM SWEEPING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS NOTHING TO PUSH THIS FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION SO IT WILL SIMPLY PIVOT/MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA AS THE UPPER PATTERN STARTS TO AMPLIFY AGAIN WITH A RIDGE BECOMING REESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL KEEP US LOCKED INTO THE HEAT WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO GRADUALLY NUDGE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AND LEAVE US VULNERABLE TO UPSTREAM MCS DEVELOPMENT SLIDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. WITHOUT ANYTHING DEFINITIVE TO LATCH ON TO WILL KEEP POPS LOW AND WAIT FOR THE SITUATION TO DEFINE ITSELF OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 1235 PM EDT THURSDAY... ANOTHER WARM MUGGY AFTERNOON IN STORE WITH AFTERNOON BUILD-UPS AND WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING IN BRIEF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ESPCLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ASIDE FROM THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT AND EARLY MORNING FOG...CONDITIONS TO REMAIN PRIMARILY VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE SOUTH...WINDS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN WESTERLY WIND FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA...GUSTY AT TIMES ESPCLY THIS AFTERNOON. FOG AGAIN OVERNIGHT DEPENDENT UPON THE DEGREE OF RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH POTENTIAL TO SEE AREAS OF LIFR/IFR IN FOG/STRATUS IN THE VALLEYS LATE AND EVEN MVFR ELSEWHERE THAT RECEIVES A HEAVY SHOWER. FOR NOW WILL TREND TOWARD PERSISTENCE FROM LAST NIGHT AND INCLUDE A PERIOD OF MVFR IN FOG AT ALL LOCATIONS EXCLUDING KROA/KBLF...WITH MVFR AT KLYH/KDAN AND IFR AROUND KBCB/KLWB. REPEAT PERFORMANCE LIKELY ON FRIDAY WITH FOG GIVING WAY TO MORE BUILD-UPS BY AFTERNOON WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE INTO THE EVENING. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL BE WEAKEN WITH TIME AS THE REMNANTS OF TS BILL MOVE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. MODELS SUGGEST THE BEST LIFT OVER OUR AREA FROM TS BILL WILL OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR LOOKS TO ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT IMPULSES TRACKING SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST MAY BRING A COUPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS AND POSSIBLE SUB-VFR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. && .CLIMATE... AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY... RECORD HIGHS FOR THURSDAY JUNE 18TH... STATION RECORD HIGHS/YEAR ROANOKE 97/1925 LYNCHBURG 96/1944 DANVILLE 96/2007 BLACKSBURG 88/2014 BLUEFIELD 90/2007 LEWISBURG 89/2014 && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JH/NF NEAR TERM...JH/NF SHORT TERM...NF LONG TERM...MBS AVIATION...JH/NF/PM CLIMATE...JH/PM
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER EAST-CENTRAL WI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAVE EXITED THE LAKESHORE REGION...AND PARTIAL CLEARING EXISTS BEHIND THE LOW AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH IS MOVING SOUTH OVER NORTHERN WI. WEAK RETURNS ARE SHOWING UP ON RADAR ALONG THE FRONT...AND ONE OB AT HAYWARD DID REGISTER A SPRINKLE. WILL CARRY AN ISOLATED SHOWER MENTION WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH 00Z. BEHIND THE FRONT...CHILLY NORTH WINDS ARE CAUSING TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 50S AND 60S. FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE A LINGERING SHOWER THREAT INTO THE EVENING...FOLLOWED BY TEMPS. TONIGHT...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE HIGHER RES MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP CONVERGENCE OVER CENTRAL WI LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WHERE AN ISOLATED SHOWER COULD FORM. AS A RESULT...KEPT A MENTION IN THE FORECAST THROUGH 02Z. THEREAFTER...A CLEARING SKY AND A COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN SOME CHILLY TEMPS OVER FAR N-C WISCONSIN. LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S ARE A POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW HOURS LATE IN THE COLD SPOTS...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S. FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION FOR THE MORNING THEN MOVE TO THE EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN SOME MID- LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON...SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY. COMFORTABLE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. .LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 PCPN TRENDS...AND SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY...ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS. HAVE SLOWED DOWN PCPN PROGRESSION A LITTLE BIT ON FRIDAY. WAA WILL BE INCREASING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WSTRN CWA...BUT A LINGERING DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS SHOULD HOLD BACK SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. WILL JUST CARRY A CHANCE OVER OUR FAR NW COUNTIES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. ANY ONGOING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX (DEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A S/W TROF...RRQ OF UPPER JET AND WAA) IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO NC/C WI SATURDAY MORNING...AND MAY NOT EVEN MAKE IT INTO EAST CENTRAL WI BEFORE 18Z. LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY AND DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL INHIBIT HEATING...LEADING TO ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY...WITH CAPES AROUND 500-1000 J/KG. SO...DESPITE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DOUBT CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SVR TSTMS ON SATURDAY. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE BETTER POTENTIAL WILL BE FOCUSED OVER SW WI...CLOSER TO THE STRONGER INSTABILITY. WILL BACK OFF A BIT ON THE SVR WORDING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. A CHANCE OF STORMS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT A MAINLY DRY DAY ON SUNDAY...DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY. 850 MB FLOW IS WESTERLY...SO ANY LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY SHALLOW. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS A S/W TROF AND JET STREAK MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. POPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED A BIT DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE A FEW MORE MODELS RUNS...AND ESPECIALLY A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT ON TIMING. EXPECT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT..AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION DURING THE WED-THU PERIOD...BRINGING A CHANCE OF TSTMS. THE GFS SHOWS THE BEST POTENTIAL...WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO THE REGION WED NGT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE MAIN BRUNT OF THE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO STRAY TOO FAR FROM NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS WILL EXIT NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR BY THE TIME THEY REACH THE CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI TAF SITES. A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON EITHER...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE TO SPARSE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. CLEARING SKIES WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY GOOD FLYING WEATHER ON FRIDAY. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
320 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2015 A RELENTLESS PERIOD OF SEVERE WEATHER FINALLY APPEARS TO BE COMING TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG CAPPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS...AND ANY LARGER SCALE FORCING MECHANISMS ARE LIMITED. RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM YESTERDAYS CONVECTION...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACROSS LARAMIE COUNTY FROM MORNING STRATUS...AND WEAK LLVL UPSLOPE WILL BE THE FOCI FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR SHOWS ONE OR TWO STORMS ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE AFTER 20Z...BUT THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS HAVE SHOWN VIRTUALLY NO DEVELOPMENT OR EASTWARD PROGRESS. WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER OVER THE PLAINS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT ANYWHERE EAST OF I25 WILL SEE MUCH. IF STORMS DEVELOP...THE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS IS VERY MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 55-65 F RANGE. MUCAPES OF 2500-3500 J/KG COMBINED WITH AVERAGE 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30 KTS WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...SO DO NOT SEE A GOOD REASON TO REMOVE SEVERE WORDING. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...NOCTURNAL SOUTHERLY LLVL/H85 JET WILL CRANK UP OVER WESTERN NEB. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ELEVATED STORM LATE...BUT THINK THIS FEATURE WILL BE FEEDING AN MCS WELL TO THE NORTH OVER WESTERN SD. IT WILL BE BREEZY TONIGHT ALONG THE PINE RIDGE IN DAWES/SIOUX COUNTIES. A TOASTY AFTERNOON FOR FRIDAY WITH THE GFS/NAM/ECM/GEM ALL SHOWING H7 TEMPS AROUND 17-18 DEG C AND 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 585 DM OVER THE PLAINS. DESPITE LLVL CONVERGENCE ALONG A STRONG SFC TROUGH/DRYLINE ALONG THE WYO/NEB BORDER...WARM AIR ALOFT AND LARGER SCALE RIDGING WILL SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION. SUBSIDENCE SHOULD SUPPORT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS WELL. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH AFTERNOON CUMULUS WE SEE...NEAR RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE WITH UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 F OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. IN ADDITION...THIS IS A GREAT PATTERN FOR NIGHTLY MCS COMPLEXES OVER NORTHEAST WY AND WESTERN SD...SO WE CANNOT RULE OUT NIGHT TIME OR EARLY AM CONVECTION ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES...MOVING IN FROM NEIGHBORING CWAS. OTHERWISE WE CAN ENJOY A PLEASANT...ALBEIT WARM AFTERNOON/EVENING FREE OF ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. COOLER ON SAT WITH A COLD FROPA...ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THE DAY 3 OUTLOOK FROM SPC HAS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA IN A MRGNL RISK...WHICH SEEMS APPROPRIATE WITH THE NAM SHOWING STRONG INSTABILITY AND GOOD SHEAR BENEATH 50 KT FLOW AT H5. COULD SEE THE RISK CATEGORY BEING BUMPED UP IN THE FUTURE DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF FORCING/CAPPING. KEPT POPS ISOLATED FOR NOW...BUT EXPECT A REVISION UPWARDS. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2015 THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE IS HOW MUCH CAP WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK. LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS SHOWING DRIER AIR STARTING TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THAT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH WEAK TROFS MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL RESULT IN A MORE ZONAL PATTERN OVER OUR REGION THROUGH THE WEEK. SATURDAY NIGHT: THIS TIMEFRAME APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN AS A STRONG (90-100KT) JET AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH WYOMING. THIS JET WILL PROVIDE STRONG WINDS ALOFT. IN ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO EAST- SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL RESULT IN ADVECTION OF DEEPER MOISTURE WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40 TO 50KTS. ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD GENERALLY TRACK WEST TO EAST AT AROUND 15 TO 20KTS WITH RIGHT MOVING SUPERCELLS TRACKING SOUTHEAST AT 15KTS. WE ARE A BIT WORRIED THAT THIS CONVECTION MAY TRY TO SLOW DOWN LATE SATURDAY EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO AROUND 30 TO 35 KTS WHICH MAY YIELD TO BACKBUILDING STORMS AND POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL. SUNDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT: THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IS BUILDING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIGHTLY OVER OUR REGION. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SOME GOOD CAPPING OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED CONVECTION. THIS SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR SOILS TO DRY OUT. CANNOT RULE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION ON TUESDAY AS THE CAP BEGINS TO WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO WEAK POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: THE GFS SHOWS A POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY PUSHING THROUGH NORTHERN MONTANA AND SOUTHERN CANADA ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THIS WAVE BUT SHOWS MORE RIDGING BUILDING OVER INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...AND PROVIDES MORE TROFFING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EITHER WAY...THIS MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO A WEAKER CAP ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1200 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2015 THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE IS THE CHANCES OF LOW CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING THE STRATUS HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME CLEARING OUT THIS MORNING. THIS INDICATES THAT THE CAP IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN PROGGED. HOWEVER...LATEST RADAR LOOP WAS SHOWING A BOUNDARY SETTING UP ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE. THIS MAY BE A FOCUS FOR MORE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY. AS A RESULT...WE ARE KEEPING THE VCTS IN THE CHEYENNE TAF THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...IF THESE STORMS DO GET GOING THIS AFTERNOON WE MAY END UP WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. IF THE STORMS DO BECOME SEVERE...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SPLITTING SUPERCELLS ONCE AGAIN. MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP AGAIN ACROSS MONTANA AND EXTREME NORTHERN WYOMING THIS EVENING AND MAY TRY TO CLIP THE CDR TAF SITE AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR NOW...WE WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE TAF AND SEE WHERE THE COMPLEX OF STORMS DEVELOPS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LOW MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE SITES ESPECIALLY WITH THE ADVECTION OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE COMPLEX OF STORMS. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2015 VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 10 AND 20 PERCENT...WITH WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 25 MPH ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND SATURDAY...POSSIBLY SEVERE. WINDS COULD BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC NEAR CONVECTION. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...REC LONG TERM...CLH AVIATION...REC FIRE WEATHER...CLH