Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/18/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
1023 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
.UPDATE...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL IS CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS
ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER AND IS SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE NORTH. A
BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN TO
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NW ARKANSAS. HRRR HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWED
THIS PRECIPITATION WEAKENING AFTER 08Z WITH THE BAND SLOWLY
DRIFTING EAST. AT THIS POINT IN THE EVENING...NO LOCATION IN THE
CWA HAS RECEIVED OVER AN INCH OF RAIN TODAY. THEREFORE...WILL
CHOOSE NOT TO EXPAND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FURTHER EAST.
OTHERWISE...JUST SOME TWEAKS TO QPF AND POPS IN THE FORECAST TO
REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015/
AVIATION...
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH
CENTRAL AND WESTERN ARKANSAS THROUGH THIS EVENING HOURS AS THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN TEXAS AND
TURNS TO THE EAST. PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS
THE WEST AND CENTRAL SECTIONS AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS, EASTERN SECTIONS
WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD FOCUSES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL AND
EVENTUALLY ITS REMNANTS. BILL IS LOCATED IN NORTH TEXAS AND WILL
MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA TONIGHT PULLING IN GULF MOISTURE ALONG THE WAY.
MODELS INDICATE NORTH MOVEMENT INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THEN TURNING
EAST AND MOVING ACROSS NORTH ARKANSAS. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE OVER ARKANSAS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST. WITH THE
EASTWARD MOVEMENT...EXPECT A LITTLE MORE RAINFALL FURTHER EAST.
INCREASED THE POPS AND QPF FURTHER EAST AS RAIN WILL BE LIKELY.
EXPECT THE UPPER LOW TO MOVE THROUGH NORTH ARKANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI SATURDAY MORNING. 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
RAIN ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN
FALLING THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED AS WELL. SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ENDING SATURDAY
MORNING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST AND CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE. NEAR
TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THEN
BACK ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ONCE THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM BILL EXITS THE MID
SOUTH...PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO ISOLATED...LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING SINGLE CELL CONVECTION. A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL
EXPAND FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...TOWARDS THE MID SOUTH DURING
THIS PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL DURING
THIS PERIOD.
HYDRO OUTLOOK...
THE TROPICAL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
BILL WILL BRING SEVERAL BANDS OF RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL WILL APPROACH 3 TO 7 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
OVER THE ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN IN OKLAHOMA. RESIDENTS AND
BUSINESSES DOWNSTREAM ALONG THE ARKANSAS RIVER ARE ENCOURAGED TO
MONITOR THE LATEST RIVER FORECASTS AS RUNOFF FROM THESE STORMS
WILL LIKELY BRING THE RIVER BACK OUT OF ITS BANKS BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 73 84 71 83 / 40 80 100 100
CAMDEN AR 74 88 74 90 / 70 50 50 50
HARRISON AR 69 77 68 79 / 60 100 100 100
HOT SPRINGS AR 73 84 72 87 / 70 80 90 90
LITTLE ROCK AR 74 87 73 87 / 60 70 90 90
MONTICELLO AR 74 90 74 90 / 50 30 40 50
MOUNT IDA AR 72 82 72 86 / 70 80 90 90
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 70 79 69 78 / 60 100 100 100
NEWPORT AR 74 87 72 85 / 30 70 100 100
PINE BLUFF AR 74 89 74 89 / 60 40 60 70
RUSSELLVILLE AR 72 82 71 84 / 60 90 100 100
SEARCY AR 73 87 72 86 / 40 70 90 100
STUTTGART AR 74 89 73 89 / 40 50 80 80
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR BAXTER-BOONE-CONWAY-
FULTON-GARLAND-IZARD-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MARION-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-
PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-SCOTT-SEARCY-STONE-VAN BUREN-YELL.
&&
$$
65
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
935 AM MST TUE JUN 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS...THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH VERY HOT
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL WEST OF TUCSON WITH SCATTERED MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS ERN SECTIONS AT THIS TIME. FAIRLY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT ONGOING WITH DEWPOINTS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS VALID 16Z
GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 40S-MID 50S. AWIPS BLENDED TOTAL
PRECIP WATER PRODUCT VALID 14Z YIELDED VALUES NEAR 1.0 INCH EAST AND
SOUTH OF TUCSON...AND VALUES OF ONLY AROUND 0.50 INCH ACROSS WRN
PIMA COUNTY.
16/12Z NAM/GFS AND 16/15Z HRRR DEPICT THE POTENTIAL OF FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST-TO-SOUTH OF
TUCSON THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH
THESE SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS. WILL REDUCE POPS TO SINGLE DIGITS LATE TONIGHT GIVEN THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE PRODUCTS.
OTHERWISE...THE MAIN EMPHASIS FOR TODAY WILL BE DAYTIME TEMPS THAT
WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 3-7 DEGS F ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS. EXPECT
HOTTER DAYTIME TEMPS DURING THE LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK AND THIS
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE SWRN CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THROUGH 17/18Z.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA WILL PREVAIL MAINLY EAST OF KTUS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 KTS MAY
OCCUR. ANY -TSRA/-SHRA SHOULD END BY 17/06Z FOLLOWED BY DRY
CONDITIONS THRU WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES WEST OF
KTUS AND A FEW TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN CLOUDS MAINLY AT 8-12K FT AGL
KTUS VICINITY EASTWARD TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER THRU THE PERIOD.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
TUCSON EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. DRY
CONDITIONS WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL THEN PREVAIL
WEDNESDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 PERCENT...ESPECIALLY IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS. TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS AROUND 15 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
ANY THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS. SOME BREEZINESS FROM THE NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS DUE TO STRONG
SURFACE HEATING. OCCASIONAL HAINES 6 CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE IN ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD ESSENTIALLY CUT OFF THE
MOISTURE INTO ARIZONA...OR AT LEAST PUSH IT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH
INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. WILL STILL SHOW MOSTLY SINGLE DIGIT `SILENT`
POPS ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN ARIZONA...ALONG THE IMMEDIATE BORDER
WITH NEW MEXICO.
BY THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WATERS JUST WEST OF THE SRN CALIFORNIA AND NRN BAJA COAST IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD. BY
LATE THIS WEEKEND IT IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER ARIZONA. THIS
SETUP WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH VERY HOT TEMPERATURES...
WITH THE POTENTIAL TO CRACK THAT 110 DEGREE MARK FOR TUCSON AND
AREAS WEST...ESPECIALLY FOR SATURDAY...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE
FOR FRIDAY AS WELL AS SUNDAY.
LOCAL STUDY CORRELATING HIGH TEMPS WITH 850-700MB THICKNESS VALUES
SUGGEST 109 DEGS FOR FRIDAY...110 DEGS SATURDAY AND 108 DEGS SUNDAY
AT TIA. MODELS ALSO SHOW A 592 DECAMETER HIGH OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...593DM SATURDAY AND 594-596 DM HIGH FOR SUNDAY. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST THE HOTTEST DAY TO BE ON SUNDAY. ALL THAT SAID...DECIDED TO
BUMP UP INHERITED HIGHS JUST A TAD MORE...SO AT THIS POINT I AM
GOING WITH 109 DEGS FOR FRIDAY...110 DEGS SATURDAY AND 109 DEGS FOR
SUNDAY AT TUCSON. SIMILAR VALUES WILL OCCUR FARTHER WEST OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN PIMA COUNTY. THEREFORE HIGH TEMPS
FOR TUCSON GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE 6 TO 8 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL EACH
DAY...BUT THE WARMEST DAYS LIKELY TO OCCUR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOWS
AROUND 5 TO 7 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WITH THE HIGH SPRAWLED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE A DRY FORECAST.
HOWEVER...MODELS DO SHOW ACTIVITY DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE
SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTALS FRIDAY AND NUDGING CLOSER TO SOUTHERN
ARIZONA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE...I
INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG THE BORDERS WITH NEW
MEXICO AND OLD MEXICO (SPECIFICALLY PORTIONS OF COCHISE COUNTY).
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
DISCUSSION/AVIATION...FRANCIS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
FIRE WEATHER...FRENCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
251 AM MST TUE JUN 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS...HOTTER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH HOTTEST READINGS
BETWEEN 107 AND 112 FROM TUCSON INTO THE LOWER DESERTS THURSDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. A MOISTURE INCREASE FROM THE EAST WILL BRING THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME STORMS WILL GENERATE STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS WE HEAT UP.
&&
.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RECENT MODEL DATA SHOWS STRONG
RIDGING OFF THE WEST COAST OF BAJA WITH A WEAK TROUGH TO OUR EAST
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG DEMARCATION BETWEEN DRY AIR TO
THE WEST AND MORE MOIST AIR TO THE EAST CAN BE SEEN IN WV IMAGERY...
WITH THE DRY AIR COVERING MUCH OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC...BAJA...
SONORA AS WELL AS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN ARIZONA. THIS
DRY/MOIST AIR INTERFACE ACROSS ARIZONA CAN BE QUANTIFIED BY LOOKING
AT THE SATELLITE DERIVED BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT
WHICH SHOWS VALUES OF AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA...AROUND 0.70 - 0.80 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF ARIZONA AND
VALUES EXCEEDING AN INCH AND EVEN AROUND 1.3 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LINGERING SCATTERED MID LEVEL
DEBRIS CLOUDS AS WELL AS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THESE DEBRIS CLOUDS HAVE ALSO SPREAD INTO
EASTERN ARIZONA OVER PORTIONS OF GREENLEE...GRAHAM AND COCHISE
COUNTIES.
YESTERDAY THE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED WAS A BIT MORE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY THAN ANTICIPATED. WE HAD THE WHITE MOUNTAINS COVERED
WELL...BUT GRAHAM AND COCHISE COUNTIES NOT AS MUCH. THERE WAS A WIND
GUSTS AT THE SAFFORD AIRPORT OF 51 MPH WITH ONE OF THESE STORMS
DROPPING OFF THE RIM. IN ADDITION...HIGH TEMPS TODAY WERE
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN EXPECTED...REACHING 108 DEGS AT TIA. THAT
SAID...LOOKING AT THE MOST RECENT MODELS IT LOOKS LIKE TODAY WILL BE
A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY...THUNDERSTORM WISE...IF NOT A BIT MORE
ACTIVE. MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT CAPE MAKING ITS WAY WESTWARD IN THE
EASTERLY/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MODELS SHOW LIFTED INDICES OF
AROUND MINUS 3 TO 5 OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE HRRR AND THE U OF A WRF/NAM & GFS ALSO
SUGGEST A VERY SIMILAR SOLUTION...WHICH SHOWS SCATTERED ACTIVITY
BETWEEN TUCSON AND THE BORDER WITH NEW MEXICO. SO...I NUDGED POPS UP
JUST A TAD MORE THAN WHAT THE EVENING SHIFT HAD...WHICH MEANS
SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER GREENLEE...GRAHAM...COCHISE AND PERHAPS EVEN
EASTERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTY...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY AS FAR WEST AS
THE TUCSON AREA. WEST OF TUCSON...NO REAL THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION.
COULD SEE A FEW OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP BETWEEN TUCSON AND THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS APPROACHING SEVERE
LIMITS (GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH POSSIBLE).
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE IN ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD ESSENTIALLY CUT OFF THE MOISTURE INTO
ARIZONA...OR AT LEAST PUSH IT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO. WILL STILL SHOW MOSTLY SINGLE DIGIT `SILENT` POPS ACROSS
EXTREME EASTERN ARIZONA...ALONG THE IMMEDIATE BORDER WITH NEW
MEXICO.
BY THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WATERS JUST WEST OF THE SRN CALIFORNIA AND NRN BAJA COAST IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD. BY
LATE THIS WEEKEND IT IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER ARIZONA. THIS
SETUP WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH VERY HOT TEMPERATURES...
WITH THE POTENTIAL TO CRACK THAT 110 DEGREE MARK FOR TUCSON AND
AREAS WEST...ESPECIALLY FOR SATURDAY...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE
FOR FRIDAY AS WELL AS SUNDAY.
LOCAL STUDY CORRELATING HIGH TEMPS WITH 850-700MB THICKNESS VALUES
SUGGEST 109 DEGS FOR FRIDAY...110 DEGS SATURDAY AND 108 DEGS SUNDAY
AT TIA. MODELS ALSO SHOW A 592 DECAMETER HIGH OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...593DM SATURDAY AND 594-596 DM HIGH FOR SUNDAY. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST THE HOTTEST DAY TO BE ON SUNDAY. ALL THAT SAID...DECIDED TO
BUMP UP INHERITED HIGHS JUST A TAD MORE...SO AT THIS POINT I AM
GOING WITH 109 DEGS FOR FRIDAY...110 DEGS SATURDAY AND 109 DEGS FOR
SUNDAY AT TUCSON. SIMILAR VALUES WILL OCCUR FARTHER WEST OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN PIMA COUNTY. THEREFORE HIGH TEMPS
FOR TUCSON GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE 6 TO 8 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL EACH
DAY...BUT THE WARMEST DAYS LIKELY TO OCCUR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOWS
AROUND 5 TO 7 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WITH THE HIGH SPRAWLED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE A DRY FORECAST.
HOWEVER...MODELS DO SHOW ACTIVITY DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE
SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTALS FRIDAY AND NUDGING CLOSER TO SOUTHERN
ARIZONA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE...I
INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG THE BORDERS WITH NEW
MEXICO AND OLD MEXICO (SPECIFICALLY PORTIONS OF COCHISE COUNTY).
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THROUGH 17/12Z.
FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 10K FT THROUGH MID-MORNING WILL INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO TERRAIN. MOISTURE PUSHING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PRIMARILY
EAST OF KTUS/KOLS LINE. STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOWS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE LESS
THAN 10 KTS WITH SOME AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING GUSTS TO NEAR 20
KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
TUCSON EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. OTHERWISE...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA
ALONG WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 5
TO 10 PERCENT...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS
AROUND 15 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ANY THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS. SOME
BREEZINESS FROM THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS DUE TO STRONG SURFACE HEATING. OCCASIONAL HAINES
6 CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.CLIMATE...MID-JUNE NEAR RECORD HEAT IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS
WEEK. HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR JUNE 16-19.
DATE JUNE 16 JUNE 17 JUNE 18 JUNE 19
TUCSON INTL AIRPORT 109/1988 109/2008 113/1989 112/1989
BISBEE-DOUGLAS AIRPORT 104/2008 105/2008 108/1989 108/1989
AJO 112/1916 113/1917 114/1936 114/1968
FORT THOMAS 109/1978 111/1959 111/1960 115/1960
ORGAN PIPE CACTUS 110/1993 111/2001 114/1989 115/1960
PICACHO PEAK 111/2000 111/2008 112/1989 111/2002
SAFFORD AG STATION 102/2000 99/2014 101/2003 101/2008
SIERRA VISTA FD 102/1989 103/1989 107/1989 106/1989
TOMBSTONE 105/1985 105/1980 107/1989 108/1989
WILLCOX 105/1948 105/1985 106/1989 108/1989
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MOLLERE
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...FRENCH
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
802 PM MDT WED JUN 17 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 802 PM MDT WED JUN 17 2015
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORMED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EARLIER
TODAY. A FEW STORMS WERE ABLE TO FORM ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE DENVER AREA. SINCE THEN MOST STORMS
HAVE DISSIPATED. EVEN THOUGH THE AIRMASS IS UNSTABLE...MID LEVEL
WARMING AND A LACK OF LIFTING IS PREVENTING MORE CONVECTION FROM
FORMING. WILL LEAVE LOW POPS IN FOR THE EVENING FOR THE
AREA...AND THEN END THEM BY MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHEAST
CORNER. THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER LARIMER AND WELD
COUNTIES AND ALSO OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. STILL POSSIBLE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS ACTIVITY
COULD TRIGGER ADDITIONAL STORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM MDT WED JUN 17 2015
A MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE IS STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND
TO PRODUCE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. SOME CAPPING IN
THE MID LEVELS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE HRRR DOES SHOW THE STORMS
MOVING INTO THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS LATE THIS AFTN
AND EVENING. BEST CHC OF SVR STORMS WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF
DENVER...STILL ENOUGH CAPE/SHEAR TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS. OVERALL
COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. ON THURSDAY...HOTTER AND
DRIER IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO
COLORADO FM THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE FLOW ALOFT WEAKENING. OVERALL
TSTM COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM MDT WED JUN 17 2015
UPPER RIDGING IS PROGGED OVER COLORADO FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD TOO. THE FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO BE WEAK AND
NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY. THERE IS BENIGN SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY
ON THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL ADHERE TO NORMAL DIURNAL
PATTERNS FOR THE MOST PART. THERE IS SOME STRONGER NORTHEASTERLIES
ON SATURDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT MAY GET INTO THE LOWER
FOOTHILLS. FOR MOISTURE...THERE IS SOME THURSDAY EVENING...THEN IT
DRIES OUT FROM FRIDAY ONWARD. THE QPF FIELDS HAVE A BIT OF
MEASURABLE RAINFALL FOR THE CWA THURSDAY EVENING...THE MOST OVER
THE FAR EAST. THERE IS VERY LITTLE NO RAINFALL PROGGED THURSDAY
OVERNIGHT THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING. WILL GO WITH MINIMAL POPS
THURSDAY EVENING...THEN DRY FOR THE CWA THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY
MORNING. FOR TEMPERATURES...FRIDAY`S HIGHS LOOK TO BE 2-4 C WARMER
THAN THURSDAY`S. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE FIRST 90 DEGREE READING OF
2015. SATURDAY`S HIGHS ARE A TAD COOLER. FOR THE LATER DAYS...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THERE IS MORE UPPER RIDGING THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE FLOW ALOFT STAYS PRETTY WEAK...BUT IT DOES BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY IN DIRECTION BY MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE
ABOVE NORMALS AND THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 802 PM MDT WED JUN 17 2015
STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 06Z IN THE DENVER
AREA. HOWEVER...CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN A TEMPO GROUP.
WILL SEE SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THERE
WILL BE ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 222 PM MDT WED JUN 17 2015
OVERALL THREAT WILL BE LOW TODAY FOR STORM TO PRODUCE FLASH
FLOODING...WITH THE STORMS STILL MOVING AT A FAIRLY DECENT RATE.
MAIN CHANGE TO THE HIGHLIGHTS WAS TO EXTEND THE FLOOD WARNING
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON...FOR THE SOUTH PLATTE IN EAST CENTRAL
PARK/SOUTHWESTERN DOUGLAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL JEFFERSON
COUNTIES...FURTHER DOWNSTREAM TO CHEESMAN RESERVOIR TO INCLUDE
ADDITIONAL CAMPGROUNDS IMPACTED BY FLOODWATERS. NO CHANGES TO THE
REST OF THE ONGOING FLOOD WARNINGS ALONG THE SOUTH PLATTE.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...MEIER
HYDROLOGY...COOPER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
640 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015
A WEAK DISTURBANCE CONTINUED TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR GENERATING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST-
CENTRAL COLORADO...THE FOUR CORNERS AND THE NORTHERN TIER ZONES.
STORMS WERE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND MODERATE WIND GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH. EXTRAPOLATED
MOVEMENT YIELDED MOVEMENT OF THIS MASS OF MOIST CONVECTION AS
GENERALLY EASTWARD AT 20-25 MPH. CONSEQUENTLY...INCREASED POP
VALUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO THIS MORNING.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY WILL LARGELY PASS EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE
MORNING...THOUGH BY THIS TIME THE AREA WILL LIKELY SEE
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO DIURNAL WARMING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015
BY SUNRISE THIS MORNING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND AREA OF UPLIFT
OVER NORTHWEST CO WILL HAVE MOVED TO SE WY AND INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS...BUT IT APPEARS THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE VORT MAX THAT
MOVED THROUGH NORTHERN NV OVERNIGHT AND INTO EASTERN UT WILL STILL
BE DRAGGING THROUGH WEST-CENTRAL CO THIS MORNING WITH A FEW
SHOWERS EXITING THE AREA EAST OF EAGLE AND VAIL BEFORE NOON. DRIER
AIR WILL THEN CONTINUE FILTERING INTO EASTERN UT AND THEN WESTERN
CO. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM MAINLY THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.
TONIGHT WILL SEE CONTINUED DRYING AS A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SW
U.S. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND RELATIVELY HOT WITH CONVECTION
CONFINED TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND POINTS EAST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015
SUBTROPICAL HIGH CORE POSITIONED OVER THE SWRN CONUS SHUTS DOWN
ANY MOISTURE PLUMES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A DIGGING SHORT WAVE
INTO MONTANA ON SATURDAY TIGHTENS WESTERLY GRADIENT FLOW ACROSS
COLORADO. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME AFTERNOON BREEZES...BUT
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER IMPACT GIVEN ROBUST RAIN AMOUNTS DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE...FORECASTED AFTERNOON
TEMPS LEAVES NO DOUBT THAT SUMMER HAS ARRIVED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 537 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015
THE 12Z TAFS REFLECTS HRRR MODEL TRENDS WITH A BAND OF
SHOWERS/STORMS SWEEPING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL COLORADO BETWEEN NOW
AND 17Z THIS MORNING. ONCE THIS BAND MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...THEN DIURNAL DRIVEN STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WRN
COLORADO. AIR MASS MAY STABILIZE OVER MUCH OF ERN UTAH. BUT MODEST
CAPE VALUES STILL EXIST FOR WRN COLORADO FOR SCATTERED
STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER SW COLORADO. FOR MOUNTAIN TAF SITES...ANY
PASSING STORMS COULD LOWER CIGS BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS WITH DIMINISHING STORMS AFTER 03Z TUESDAY EVENING.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NL
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
537 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015
BY SUNRISE THIS MORNING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND AREA OF UPLIFT
OVER NORTHWEST CO WILL HAVE MOVED TO SE WY AND INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS...BUT IT APPEARS THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE VORT MAX THAT
MOVED THROUGH NORTHERN NV OVERNIGHT AND INTO EASTERN UT WILL STILL
BE DRAGGING THROUGH WEST-CENTRAL CO THIS MORNING WITH A FEW
SHOWERS EXITING THE AREA EAST OF EAGLE AND VAIL BEFORE NOON. DRIER
AIR WILL THEN CONTINUE FILTERING INTO EASTERN UT AND THEN WESTERN
CO. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM MAINLY THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.
TONIGHT WILL SEE CONTINUED DRYING AS A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SW
U.S. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND RELATIVELY HOT WITH CONVECTION
CONFINED TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND POINTS EAST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015
SUBTROPICAL HIGH CORE POSITIONED OVER THE SWRN CONUS SHUTS DOWN
ANY MOISTURE PLUMES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A DIGGING SHORT WAVE
INTO MONTANA ON SATURDAY TIGHTENS WESTERLY GRADIENT FLOW ACROSS
COLORADO. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME AFTERNOON BREEZES...BUT
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER IMPACT GIVEN ROBUST RAIN AMOUNTS DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE...FORECASTED AFTERNOON
TEMPS LEAVES NO DOUBT THAT SUMMER HAS ARRIVED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 537 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015
THE 12Z TAFS REFLECTS HRRR MODEL TRENDS WITH A BAND OF
SHOWERS/STORMS SWEEPING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL COLORADO BETWEEN NOW
AND 17Z THIS MORNING. ONCE THIS BAND MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...THEN DIURNAL DRIVEN STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WRN
COLORADO. AIR MASS MAY STABILIZE OVER MUCH OF ERN UTAH. BUT MODEST
CAPE VALUES STILL EXIST FOR WRN COLORADO FOR SCATTERED
STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER SW COLORADO. FOR MOUNTAIN TAF SITES...ANY
PASSING STORMS COULD LOWER CIGS BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS WITH DIMINISHING STORMS AFTER 03Z TUESDAY EVENING.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
328 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015
BY SUNRISE THIS MORNING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND AREA OF UPLIFT
OVER NORTHWEST CO WILL HAVE MOVED TO SE WY AND INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS...BUT IT APPEARS THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE VORT MAX THAT
MOVED THROUGH NORTHERN NV OVERNIGHT AND INTO EASTERN UT WILL STILL
BE DRAGGING THROUGH WEST-CENTRAL CO THIS MORNING WITH A FEW
SHOWERS EXITING THE AREA EAST OF EAGLE AND VAIL BEFORE NOON. DRIER
AIR WILL THEN CONTINUE FILTERING INTO EASTERN UT AND THEN WESTERN
CO. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM MAINLY THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.
TONIGHT WILL SEE CONTINUED DRYING AS A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SW
U.S. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND RELATIVELY HOT WITH CONVECTION
CONFINED TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND POINTS EAST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015
SUBTROPICAL HIGH CORE POSITIONED OVER THE SWRN CONUS SHUTS DOWN
ANY MOISTURE PLUMES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A DIGGING SHORT WAVE
INTO MONTANA ON SATURDAY TIGHTENS WESTERLY GRADIENT FLOW ACROSS
COLORADO. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME AFTERNOON BREEZES...BUT
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER IMPACT GIVEN ROBUST RAIN AMOUNTS DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE...FORECASTED AFTERNOON
TEMPS LEAVES NO DOUBT THAT SUMMER HAS ARRIVED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015
THE 06Z TAFS REFLECTS HRRR MODEL TRENDS WITH A BAND OF
SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL COLORADO BETWEEN 10Z-16Z
TODAY. ONCE THIS BAND MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...THEN
DIURNAL DRIVEN STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WRN COLORADO. AIR MASS
MAY STABILIZE OVER MUCH OF ERN UTAH. BUT MODEST CAPE VALUES STILL
EXIST FOR WRN COLORADO FOR SCATTERED STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER SW
COLORADO. FOR MOUNTAIN TAF SITES...ANY PASSING STORMS COULD LOWER
CIGS BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH DIMINISHING
STORMS AFTER 03Z TUESDAY EVENING.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
106 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 106 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015
SHORT WAVE PROVIDING ENOUGH UPSTAIRS BOOST TO COUNTERACT ANY
NOCTURNAL "STABILIZATION". LATEST SATELLITE INFRARED SHOWING
POCKETS OF COOLING CLOUD TOPS. THIS SUPPORTS TRENDS OFFERED BY THE
HRRR MODEL WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING INTO WEST CENTRAL
COLORADO BETWEEN 10Z-16Z. UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS TREND.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 814 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2015
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER EXTREME NE UT AND
NW CO UNTIL A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGH GRADUALLY WEAKENING WITH
TIME. THE BEST JET SUPPORT AND UPLIFT APPEARS TO BE SLIDING NORTH
OF THE AREA AND BARELY CLIPPING DAGGETT COUNTY. HAVE UPDATED THE
PRECIP AND CLOUD GRIDS FOCUSING ON THOSE AREAS WITH HIGHER POPS
AND MORE CLOUD UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2015
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE A BIT GREATER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME
LARGELY DUE TO A SLIGHT UPTICK IN MOISTURE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
STORMS WERE TRACKING TO THE WEST AT AROUND 15 MPH. STRONGER CELLS
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL TO 0.5
INCHES WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40 MPH. A SHORTWAVE BRUSHING
THE NORTH WILL LIKELY ENHANCE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING. DRYNESS IN LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE COMBINED
WITH MIDDLING ENERGY COULD GENERATE STRONGER WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BORDER AREAS OF THE FORECAST...POSSIBLY PEAKING IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S. THIS WAVE WILL HELP SUSTAIN MOIST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WELL INTO THE EVENING BEFORE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER NEAR
NORMAL...BUT JUST A BIT BELOW GUIDANCE.
WE ARE GOING TO SEE A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERE BEGIN TO EXPAND OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST STATES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS. PWAT ANOMALY TABLES ARE FINALLY SHOWING A DOWNWARD
TREND TO MORE SEASONAL READING NEAR A THIRD OF AN INCH OVER EASTERN
UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO BY THURSDAY AND WELL BEYOND. THERE WILL BE
A SUBTLE WAVE DROPPING ACROSS INTO OUR CENTRAL CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A SECOND WAVE SWINGING ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE
AFTERNOON...THEN LASTLY A WAVE DRIFTING ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS DURING
THE LATE EVENING TO EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE PASSING WAVES REMAINS WEAK TO MODERATE AS THE
ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT TOMORROW. REALLY EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO
REMAIN FOCUSED ON THE TERRAIN TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEYS WITH THE
INITIAL WAVE IN THE AM HOURS TUESDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT DUE TO FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
PUSHING NEAR MID JUNE NORMALS ACROSS THE REGION...TEMPERED ONLY BY
REMAINING SNOW PACK AND AREAS STILL SATURATED FROM THE RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2015
RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL BE DOMINATING
THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WE WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN A ZONAL PATTERN ON THE
FRINGE OF THE HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. AS
THE DRY PERIOD EXTENDS IN TIME SOILS AND VEGETATION WILL BE DRYING
AND THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS WILL
SATURDAY WILL BRIEFLY SUPPRESS THE HIGH SOUTHWARD BUT THE IMPACT
ON TEMPERATURES WILL BE MINIMAL. AS THE RIDGE REBOUNDS ON SUNDAY
BEHIND THE SYSTEM...MID LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING IS AT A PEAK ACROSS
THE LOWER DESERTS AND HIGHS IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS MAY EXPAND OUT OF
THE 4 CORNERS REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015
THE 06Z TAFS REFLECTS HRRR MODEL TRENDS WITH A BAND OF
SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL COLORADO BETWEEN 10Z-16Z
TODAY. ONCE THIS BAND MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...THEN
DIURNAL DRIVEN STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WRN COLORADO. AIR MASS
MAY STABILIZE OVER MUCH OF ERN UTAH. BUT MODEST CAPE VALUES STILL
EXIST FOR WRN COLORADO FOR SCATTERED STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER SW
COLORADO. FOR MOUNTAIN TAF SITES...ANY PASSING STORMS COULD LOWER
CIGS BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH DIMINISHING
STORMS AFTER 03Z TUESDAY EVENING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 313 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2015
CONDITIONS CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS
ALONG RIVERS AND STREAMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DECREASED
RAINFALL HAS ALLOWED OPERATORS TO REDUCE RELEASES FROM VALLECITO
RESERVOIR AND THE AREAL FLOOD ADVISORY THERE HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
THAT SAID...THE LOS PINOS RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH AND
FAST. MEANWHILE...BOTH THE ROARING FORK RIVER NEAR ASPEN AND THE
EAGLE RIVER NEAR REDCLIFF CONTINUED TO RUN NEAR...OR A LITTLE
ABOVE BANKFULL. LATEST FORECASTS FROM CBRFC INDICATED THESE
LOCATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HIGH FLOWS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MOST MOUNTAINS HAVE SEEN THEIR PEAK IN
SNOWMELT WHICH...WHEN COMBINED WITH A DRYING TREND LATER THIS
WEEK...SHOULD ALLOW WATER FLOW ON RIVERS AND STREAMS TO EASE
DOWNWARD.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...NL/15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...PF
HYDROLOGY...TGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
139 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND MAY BE
PRECEDED BY A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE USHERS SEASONABLE WEATHER INTO THURSDAY PRIOR TO A COLD
FRONT AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AND SEASONABLE BENEATH RENEWED
HIGH PRESSURE. THOUGH AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED BY SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WET-WEATHER APPROACHING FROM THE W
MEETING UP WITH THE REMNANTS OF BILL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
130 PM UPDATE...
ADJUSTED TIMING OF POPS MAINLY TOWARD THE TIMING OF A LINE OF
SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT IN NY. AS EXPECTED...THE
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HOLD IN AND SEVERELY LIMIT DESTABILIZATION
THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE CAPPED THUNDER AT ISOLATED...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS LIKELY TO BE VERY LITTLE THUNDER AS THIS BAND OF SHOWERS MOVES
THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. JUST A BRIEF DOWNPOUR
AND SOME GUSTY NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS POINT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH LATER TODAY WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT THROUGH N NEW ENG THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE FROPA
EXPECTED THIS EVENING IN SNE. A PREFRONTAL TROF MAY SET UP IN SNE
THIS AFTERNOON AND SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
TSTMS. 0-6KM SHEAR OF 35-40 KT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS
FAIRLY ROBUST BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE LACKING. ECMWF HAS NO SFC
INSTABILITY WHILE NAM/GFS GENERATE AROUND 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE BUT
NAM ONLY SHOWING MLCAPES LESS THAN 500 J/KG. IN ADDITION...MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER MEAGER. HRRR AND ARW/NMM ALL SHOW SCT
CONVECTION MOVING INTO SNE THIS AFTERNOON SO WHILE WE ARE
CONFIDENT THAT SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS WILL DEVELOP...THINK
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED UNLESS THERE IS MORE SUN THAN
FORECAST ALLOWING FOR GREATER INSTABILITY. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
PRIMARY THREAT GIVEN PWATS INCREASING OVER 2".
CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 70S TODAY BUT IT
WILL BECOME HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY E
HALF NEW ENGLAND THEN COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SNE 00-06Z
FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION.
MIN TEMPS MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
WEDNESDAY...
LARGE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO NEW ENG BRINGING SUNSHINE AND LIGHT
WINDS. TEMPS MOSTLY 75 TO 80 DEGREES WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
LEVELS. SEABREEZES WILL DEVELOP WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS
ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* SEASONABLE AND DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
* SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
* AGAIN SEASONABLE AND DRY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
* COULD TURN WET BEGINNING SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION...
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW THRU WHICH PACIFIC-ORIGIN DISTURBANCES USHER BOUTS
OF ACTIVE WEATHER FOLLOWED BY PERIODS OF COOL-DRY RELIEF. THOUGH
SOME POTENTIAL FLIES IN THE OINTMENT: 1. MAINTENANCE OF ANOMALOUS
HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND THE WATERS S OF NOVA SCOTIA
AS INDICATED BY THE 14- AND 30-DAY H5 HEIGHT AND MSLP ANOMALIES...
AND 2. REMNANTS OF BILL. A BLEND OF FORECAST GUIDANCE IS PREFERRED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTIES.
SO WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE ROUND-A-
BOUT PATTERN OF HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER AIR FOLLOWED BY RETURN S/SW-
FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER-MAKER WHICH IS
ANTICIPATED THURSDAY NIGHT. COULD SEE SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE E-COAST.
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT SWEEPS S NEW ENGLAND BUT WITHIN A
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LACK OF DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FORCING PER FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT TO MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EMBEDDED HEAVIER
RAIN FROM UPSTREAM EARLIER DAYTIME CONVECTIVE ACROSS NY / PA. LITTLE
CONFIDENCE CONCERNING CONVECTION / THUNDER. SCATTERED EXPECTATIONS
YIELD CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
WILL HOLD FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS DRY. HIGH PRESSURE YIELDS COOL-
DRY CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY NW-WINDS ON FRIDAY. PERHAPS A GOOD PERIOD
OF RADIATIONAL COOLING FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS. RETURN S-FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING.
AS WE GO FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THINKING THE INDICATIONS
OF A N-STREAM DISTURBANCE MEETING UP WITH THE REMNANTS OF BILL AS
INFERRED FROM A CONSENSUS OF FORECAST GUIDANCE WILL MAKE FOR AN
ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD OF WET-WEATHER. BUT AGAIN UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR
OUT IN THE FORECAST AND THINGS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE. CHANCE POPS
WARRANTED. BROAD-BRUSH FORECAST WITH A MENTION OF THUNDER.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
THROUGH TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...MAINLY DUE TO TIMING.
MIX OF MVFR/IFR ACROSS THE AREA WILL SLOW GIVE WAY TO LOW END VFR
BY 20-23Z. AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT SOME
SHOWERS WITH GUSTY NW WINDS BEGINNING 20Z IN THE W...THROUGH ABOUT
00Z IN THE E. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WINDS REMAIN MAINLY NW
WITH A TRANSITION TO VFR EVERYWHERE THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. SEABREEZES LIKELY.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN EXPECTED TRENDS...LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN EXPECTED TRENDS...LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. WINDS VEERING S. E/SE SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE E-SHORE DURING THE
DAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LOW-END VFR. POSSIBLE MVFR FOR HIGH TERRAIN. SCT -SHRA. POSSIBLE
+RA. S/SW-WINDS BACKING NW AND BECOMING BREEZY WITH COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR. NW-BREEZY WINDS FRIDAY TURN LIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT VEERING S BY
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARDS THE LATER-
HALF OF THE PERIOD. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST PERIOD DRY.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
7 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.
TODAY...WINDS BECOME SW TODAY WITH SPEEDS WELL BELOW SCA. AREAS
OF FOG WILL LIMIT VSBYS THIS MORNING.
TONIGHT INTO WED...A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT
AND A PERIOD OF POST FRONTAL NORTHERLY GUSTS TO 25-30 KT POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. SCA ISSUED FOR WATERS AROUND AND E
OF CAPE COD WHERE STRONGEST GUSTS EXPECTED. WINDS DIMINISH WED
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS VEERING S. PERHAPS BREEZY LATE WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. E/SE
SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE E-SHORE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. SEAS REMAIN
BELOW 5-FEET.
THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS DISSIPATING TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING. S/SW-WINDS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE...BACKING NW AND REMAINING BREEZY
WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TOWARDS MORNING. SEAS REMAIN BELOW
5-FEET.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
NW-BREEZY WINDS FRIDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS TURN LIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT VEERING S BY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
KTS. INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARDS THE LATER-HALF OF THE PERIOD. WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST PERIOD DRY WHILE SEAS REMAIN BELOW 5-FEET.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ231-232-255-256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ250-254.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...KJC/DOODY
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...DOODY/SIPPRELL
MARINE...KJC/SIPPRELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
957 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND MAY BE
PRECEDED BY A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE USHERS SEASONABLE WEATHER INTO THURSDAY PRIOR TO A COLD
FRONT AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AND SEASONABLE BENEATH RENEWED
HIGH PRESSURE. THOUGH AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED BY SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WET-WEATHER APPROACHING FROM THE W
MEETING UP WITH THE REMNANTS OF BILL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM UPDATE...
SO FAR NOT SO GOOD IF YOU ARE A THUNDERSTORM FAN. VISIBILITY SAT
AND WEBCAMS CONFIRM STILL A LOT OF LOW LVL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE
REGION WHICH IS PREVENTING TEMPS FROM RISING OUT OF THE 50S AND
60S ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS ARE STILL TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH
CLEARING SO IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT THE FINAL 12Z RUNS
AND LATEST MESO-SCALE GUIDANCE CAN COME UP WITH. EVEN THE BREAKS
TO THE W ARE FILLING IN AS LEFTOVER CLOUD DEBRIS ASSOCIATED WITH
SOME -SHRA ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE W. FINAL
STABILITY WILL ULTIMATELY BE DETERMINED BY BREAKS SO WILL CONTINUE
TO WATCH AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES...BUT UNLESS SOMETHING
CHANGES RELATIVELY SOON IT MAY BE TOO LITTLE TOO LATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH LATER TODAY WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT THROUGH N NEW ENG THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE FROPA
EXPECTED THIS EVENING IN SNE. A PREFRONTAL TROF MAY SET UP IN SNE
THIS AFTERNOON AND SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
TSTMS. 0-6KM SHEAR OF 35-40 KT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS
FAIRLY ROBUST BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE LACKING. ECMWF HAS NO SFC
INSTABILITY WHILE NAM/GFS GENERATE AROUND 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE BUT
NAM ONLY SHOWING MLCAPES LESS THAN 500 J/KG. IN ADDITION...MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER MEAGER. HRRR AND ARW/NMM ALL SHOW SCT
CONVECTION MOVING INTO SNE THIS AFTERNOON SO WHILE WE ARE
CONFIDENT THAT SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS WILL DEVELOP...THINK
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED UNLESS THERE IS MORE SUN THAN
FORECAST ALLOWING FOR GREATER INSTABILITY. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
PRIMARY THREAT GIVEN PWATS INCREASING OVER 2".
CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 70S TODAY BUT IT
WILL BECOME HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY E
HALF NEW ENGLAND THEN COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SNE 00-06Z
FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION.
MIN TEMPS MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
WEDNESDAY...
LARGE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO NEW ENG BRINGING SUNSHINE AND LIGHT
WINDS. TEMPS MOSTLY 75 TO 80 DEGREES WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
LEVELS. SEABREEZES WILL DEVELOP WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS
ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* SEASONABLE AND DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
* SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
* AGAIN SEASONABLE AND DRY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
* COULD TURN WET BEGINNING SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION...
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW THRU WHICH PACIFIC-ORIGIN DISTURBANCES USHER BOUTS
OF ACTIVE WEATHER FOLLOWED BY PERIODS OF COOL-DRY RELIEF. THOUGH
SOME POTENTIAL FLIES IN THE OINTMENT: 1. MAINTENANCE OF ANOMALOUS
HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND THE WATERS S OF NOVA SCOTIA
AS INDICATED BY THE 14- AND 30-DAY H5 HEIGHT AND MSLP ANOMALIES...
AND 2. REMNANTS OF BILL. A BLEND OF FORECAST GUIDANCE IS PREFERRED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTIES.
SO WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE ROUND-A-
BOUT PATTERN OF HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER AIR FOLLOWED BY RETURN S/SW-
FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER-MAKER WHICH IS
ANTICIPATED THURSDAY NIGHT. COULD SEE SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE E-COAST.
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT SWEEPS S NEW ENGLAND BUT WITHIN A
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LACK OF DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FORCING PER FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT TO MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EMBEDDED HEAVIER
RAIN FROM UPSTREAM EARLIER DAYTIME CONVECTIVE ACROSS NY / PA. LITTLE
CONFIDENCE CONCERNING CONVECTION / THUNDER. SCATTERED EXPECTATIONS
YIELD CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
WILL HOLD FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS DRY. HIGH PRESSURE YIELDS COOL-
DRY CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY NW-WINDS ON FRIDAY. PERHAPS A GOOD PERIOD
OF RADIATIONAL COOLING FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS. RETURN S-FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING.
AS WE GO FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THINKING THE INDICATIONS
OF A N-STREAM DISTURBANCE MEETING UP WITH THE REMNANTS OF BILL AS
INFERRED FROM A CONSENSUS OF FORECAST GUIDANCE WILL MAKE FOR AN
ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD OF WET-WEATHER. BUT AGAIN UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR
OUT IN THE FORECAST AND THINGS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE. CHANCE POPS
WARRANTED. BROAD-BRUSH FORECAST WITH A MENTION OF THUNDER.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
IFR STRATUS/FOG IMPROVING TO MVFR/LOW-END VFR CIGS WITH LESS
IMPACT DUE TO VSBY TOWARDS MIDDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...SLOWER
ALONG THE COASTS. SHRA 16Z-22Z THOUGH EXACT DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN.
PREVAILED VCSH. LOW CONFIDENCE TSRA. WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE S
THROUGH THE DAY.
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
IMPROVING TO VFR AS WINDS SHIFT TO NW BEHIND A COLD FRONT...BUT
AREAS OF IFR STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG OVER CAPE/ISLANDS WILL LINGER
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEABREEZES LIKELY.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. IMPROVING TO MVFR/VFR
THIS MORNING AS WINDS BECOME S/SW.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TSRA POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY IF CIGS SHOULD BECOME SCT-BKN.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. WINDS VEERING S. E/SE SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE E-SHORE DURING THE
DAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LOW-END VFR. POSSIBLE MVFR FOR HIGH TERRAIN. SCT -SHRA. POSSIBLE
+RA. S/SW-WINDS BACKING NW AND BECOMING BREEZY WITH COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR. NW-BREEZY WINDS FRIDAY TURN LIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT VEERING S BY
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARDS THE LATER-
HALF OF THE PERIOD. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST PERIOD DRY.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
7 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.
TODAY...WINDS BECOME SW TODAY WITH SPEEDS WELL BELOW SCA. AREAS
OF FOG WILL LIMIT VSBYS THIS MORNING.
TONIGHT INTO WED...A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT
AND A PERIOD OF POST FRONTAL NORTHERLY GUSTS TO 25-30 KT POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. SCA ISSUED FOR WATERS AROUND AND E
OF CAPE COD WHERE STRONGEST GUSTS EXPECTED. WINDS DIMINISH WED
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS VEERING S. PERHAPS BREEZY LATE WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. E/SE
SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE E-SHORE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. SEAS REMAIN
BELOW 5-FEET.
THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS DISSIPATING TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING. S/SW-WINDS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE...BACKING NW AND REMAINING BREEZY
WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TOWARDS MORNING. SEAS REMAIN BELOW
5-FEET.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
NW-BREEZY WINDS FRIDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS TURN LIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT VEERING S BY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
KTS. INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARDS THE LATER-HALF OF THE PERIOD. WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST PERIOD DRY WHILE SEAS REMAIN BELOW 5-FEET.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ231-232-255-256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ250-254.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...KJC/DOODY
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...KJC/SIPPRELL
MARINE...KJC/SIPPRELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
710 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND MAY BE
PRECEDED BY A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE USHERS SEASONABLE WEATHER INTO THURSDAY PRIOR TO A COLD
FRONT AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AND SEASONABLE BENEATH RENEWED
HIGH PRESSURE. THOUGH AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED BY SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WET-WEATHER APPROACHING FROM THE W
MEETING UP WITH THE REMNANTS OF BILL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
7 AM UPDATE...
SOUPY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT
AND IMPROVE AS WINDS INCREASE S/SW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THOUGH A CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER CLOUDS BREAK
ALLOWING FOR SUNSHINE. AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG TOUGH THROUGHOUT THE DAY LIMITING
INSTABILITY TOWARDS AFTERNOON SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING-FORECAST. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
APPLIES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH LATER TODAY WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT THROUGH N NEW ENG THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE FROPA
EXPECTED THIS EVENING IN SNE. A PREFRONTAL TROF MAY SET UP IN SNE
THIS AFTERNOON AND SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
TSTMS. 0-6KM SHEAR OF 35-40 KT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS
FAIRLY ROBUST BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE LACKING. ECMWF HAS NO SFC
INSTABILITY WHILE NAM/GFS GENERATE AROUND 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE BUT
NAM ONLY SHOWING MLCAPES LESS THAN 500 J/KG. IN ADDITION...MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER MEAGER. HRRR AND ARW/NMM ALL SHOW SCT
CONVECTION MOVING INTO SNE THIS AFTERNOON SO WHILE WE ARE
CONFIDENT THAT SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS WILL DEVELOP...THINK
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED UNLESS THERE IS MORE SUN THAN
FORECAST ALLOWING FOR GREATER INSTABILITY. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
PRIMARY THREAT GIVEN PWATS INCREASING OVER 2".
CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 70S TODAY BUT IT
WILL BECOME HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY E
HALF NEW ENGLAND THEN COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SNE 00-06Z
FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION.
MIN TEMPS MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
WEDNESDAY...
LARGE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO NEW ENG BRINGING SUNSHINE AND LIGHT
WINDS. TEMPS MOSTLY 75 TO 80 DEGREES WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
LEVELS. SEABREEZES WILL DEVELOP WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS
ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* SEASONABLE AND DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
* SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
* AGAIN SEASONABLE AND DRY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
* COULD TURN WET BEGINNING SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION...
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW THRU WHICH PACIFIC-ORIGIN DISTURBANCES USHER BOUTS
OF ACTIVE WEATHER FOLLOWED BY PERIODS OF COOL-DRY RELIEF. THOUGH
SOME POTENTIAL FLIES IN THE OINTMENT: 1. MAINTENANCE OF ANOMALOUS
HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND THE WATERS S OF NOVA SCOTIA
AS INDICATED BY THE 14- AND 30-DAY H5 HEIGHT AND MSLP ANOMALIES...
AND 2. REMNANTS OF BILL. A BLEND OF FORECAST GUIDANCE IS PREFERRED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTIES.
SO WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE ROUND-A-
BOUT PATTERN OF HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER AIR FOLLOWED BY RETURN S/SW-
FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER-MAKER WHICH IS
ANTICIPATED THURSDAY NIGHT. COULD SEE SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE E-COAST.
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT SWEEPS S NEW ENGLAND BUT WITHIN A
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LACK OF DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FORCING PER FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT TO MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EMBEDDED HEAVIER
RAIN FROM UPSTREAM EARLIER DAYTIME CONVECTIVE ACROSS NY / PA. LITTLE
CONFIDENCE CONCERNING CONVECTION / THUNDER. SCATTERED EXPECTATIONS
YIELD CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
WILL HOLD FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS DRY. HIGH PRESSURE YIELDS COOL-
DRY CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY NW-WINDS ON FRIDAY. PERHAPS A GOOD PERIOD
OF RADIATIONAL COOLING FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS. RETURN S-FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING.
AS WE GO FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THINKING THE INDICATIONS
OF A N-STREAM DISTURBANCE MEETING UP WITH THE REMNANTS OF BILL AS
INFERRED FROM A CONSENSUS OF FORECAST GUIDANCE WILL MAKE FOR AN
ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD OF WET-WEATHER. BUT AGAIN UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR
OUT IN THE FORECAST AND THINGS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE. CHANCE POPS
WARRANTED. BROAD-BRUSH FORECAST WITH A MENTION OF THUNDER.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
IFR STRATUS/FOG IMPROVING TO MVFR/LOW-END VFR CIGS WITH LESS
IMPACT DUE TO VSBY TOWARDS MIDDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...SLOWER
ALONG THE COASTS. SHRA 16Z-22Z THOUGH EXACT DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN.
PREVAILED VCSH. LOW CONFIDENCE TSRA. WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE S
THROUGH THE DAY.
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
IMPROVING TO VFR AS WINDS SHIFT TO NW BEHIND A COLD FRONT...BUT
AREAS OF IFR STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG OVER CAPE/ISLANDS WILL LINGER
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEABREEZES LIKELY.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. IMPROVING TO MVFR/VFR
THIS MORNING AS WINDS BECOME S/SW.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TSRA POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY IF CIGS SHOULD BECOME SCT-BKN.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. WINDS VEERING S. E/SE SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE E-SHORE DURING THE
DAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LOW-END VFR. POSSIBLE MVFR FOR HIGH TERRAIN. SCT -SHRA. POSSIBLE
+RA. S/SW-WINDS BACKING NW AND BECOMING BREEZY WITH COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR. NW-BREEZY WINDS FRIDAY TURN LIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT VEERING S BY
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARDS THE LATER-
HALF OF THE PERIOD. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST PERIOD DRY.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
7 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.
TODAY...WINDS BECOME SW TODAY WITH SPEEDS WELL BELOW SCA. AREAS
OF FOG WILL LIMIT VSBYS THIS MORNING.
TONIGHT INTO WED...A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT
AND A PERIOD OF POST FRONTAL NORTHERLY GUSTS TO 25-30 KT POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. SCA ISSUED FOR WATERS AROUND AND E
OF CAPE COD WHERE STRONGEST GUSTS EXPECTED. WINDS DIMINISH WED
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS VEERING S. PERHAPS BREEZY LATE WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. E/SE
SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE E-SHORE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. SEAS REMAIN
BELOW 5-FEET.
THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS DISSIPATING TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING. S/SW-WINDS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE...BACKING NW AND REMAINING BREEZY
WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TOWARDS MORNING. SEAS REMAIN BELOW
5-FEET.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
NW-BREEZY WINDS FRIDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS TURN LIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT VEERING S BY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
KTS. INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARDS THE LATER-HALF OF THE PERIOD. WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST PERIOD DRY WHILE SEAS REMAIN BELOW 5-FEET.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ231-232-255-256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ250-254.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...KJC/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...KJC/SIPPRELL
MARINE...KJC/SIPPRELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
314 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND MAY BE
PRECEDED BY A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE USHERS SEASONABLE WEATHER INTO THURSDAY PRIOR TO A COLD
FRONT AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AND SEASONABLE BENEATH RENEWED
HIGH PRESSURE. THOUGH AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED BY SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WET-WEATHER APPROACHING FROM THE W
MEETING UP WITH THE REMNANTS OF BILL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TODAY AS WINDS
BECOME S/SW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN SO EXPECT CLOUDS
WILL HANG TOUGH THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHICH MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY.
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH LATER TODAY WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT THROUGH N NEW ENG THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE FROPA
EXPECTED THIS EVENING IN SNE. A PREFRONTAL TROF MAY SET UP IN SNE
THIS AFTERNOON AND SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
TSTMS. 0-6KM SHEAR OF 35-40 KT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS
FAIRLY ROBUST BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE LACKING. ECMWF HAS NO SFC
INSTABILITY WHILE NAM/GFS GENERATE AROUND 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE BUT
NAM ONLY SHOWING MLCAPES LESS THAN 500 J/KG. IN ADDITION...MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER MEAGER. HRRR AND ARW/NMM ALL SHOW SCT
CONVECTION MOVING INTO SNE THIS AFTERNOON SO WHILE WE ARE
CONFIDENT THAT SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS WILL DEVELOP...THINK
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED UNLESS THERE IS MORE SUN THAN
FORECAST ALLOWING FOR GREATER INSTABILITY. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
PRIMARY THREAT GIVEN PWATS INCREASING OVER 2".
CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 70S TODAY BUT IT
WILL BECOME HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY E
HALF NEW ENGLAND THEN COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SNE 00-06Z
FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION.
MIN TEMPS MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
WEDNESDAY...
LARGE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO NEW ENG BRINGING SUNSHINE AND LIGHT
WINDS. TEMPS MOSTLY 75 TO 80 DEGREES WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
LEVELS. SEABREEZES WILL DEVELOP WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS
ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* SEASONABLE AND DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
* SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
* AGAIN SEASONABLE AND DRY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
* COULD TURN WET BEGINNING SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION...
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW THRU WHICH PACIFIC-ORIGIN DISTURBANCES USHER BOUTS
OF ACTIVE WEATHER FOLLOWED BY PERIODS OF COOL-DRY RELIEF. THOUGH
SOME POTENTIAL FLIES IN THE OINTMENT: 1. MAINTENANCE OF ANOMALOUS
HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND THE WATERS S OF NOVA SCOTIA
AS INDICATED BY THE 14- AND 30-DAY H5 HEIGHT AND MSLP ANOMALIES...
AND 2. REMNANTS OF BILL. A BLEND OF FORECAST GUIDANCE IS PREFERRED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTIES.
SO WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE ROUND-A-
BOUT PATTERN OF HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER AIR FOLLOWED BY RETURN S/SW-
FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER-MAKER WHICH IS
ANTICIPATED THURSDAY NIGHT. COULD SEE SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE E-COAST.
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT SWEEPS S NEW ENGLAND BUT WITHIN A
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LACK OF DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FORCING PER FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT TO MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EMBEDDED HEAVIER
RAIN FROM UPSTREAM EARLIER DAYTIME CONVECTIVE ACROSS NY / PA. LITTLE
CONFIDENCE CONCERNING CONVECTION / THUNDER. SCATTERED EXPECTATIONS
YIELD CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
WILL HOLD FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS DRY. HIGH PRESSURE YIELDS COOL-
DRY CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY NW-WINDS ON FRIDAY. PERHAPS A GOOD PERIOD
OF RADIATIONAL COOLING FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS. RETURN S-FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING.
AS WE GO FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THINKING THE INDICATIONS
OF A N-STREAM DISTURBANCE MEETING UP WITH THE REMNANTS OF BILL AS
INFERRED FROM A CONSENSUS OF FORECAST GUIDANCE WILL MAKE FOR AN
ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD OF WET-WEATHER. BUT AGAIN UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR
OUT IN THE FORECAST AND THINGS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE. CHANCE POPS
WARRANTED. BROAD-BRUSH FORECAST WITH A MENTION OF THUNDER.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z...WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR IN STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG.
TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR/LIFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL IMPROVE
TO MVFR WITH SOME VFR POSSIBLE AWAY FROM THE COAST IN THE
AFTERNOON. TIMING OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS IS UNCERTAIN. SCT
SHOWERS AND TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. IMPROVING TO VFR AS WINDS SHIFT TO NW
BEHIND A COLD FRONT...BUT AREAS OF IFR STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG OVER
CAPE/ISLANDS WILL LINGER THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEABREEZES LIKELY.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. IMPROVING TO MVFR/VFR
LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS WINDS BECOME S/SW.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. WINDS VEERING S. E/SE SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE E-SHORE DURING THE
DAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LOW-END VFR. POSSIBLE MVFR FOR HIGH TERRAIN. SCT -SHRA. POSSIBLE
+RA. S/SW-WINDS BACKING NW AND BECOMING BREEZY WITH COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR. NW-BREEZY WINDS FRIDAY TURN LIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT VEERING S BY
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARDS THE LATER-
HALF OF THE PERIOD. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST PERIOD DRY.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TODAY...WINDS BECOME SW TODAY WITH SPEEDS WELL BELOW SCA. AREAS
OF FOG WILL LIMIT VSBYS THIS MORNING.
TONIGHT INTO WED...A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT
AND A PERIOD OF POST FRONTAL NORTHERLY GUSTS TO 25-30 KT POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. SCA ISSUED FOR WATERS AROUND AND E
OF CAPE COD WHERE STRONGEST GUSTS EXPECTED. WINDS DIMINISH WED
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS VEERING S. PERHAPS BREEZY LATE WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. E/SE
SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE E-SHORE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. SEAS REMAIN
BELOW 5-FEET.
THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS DISSIPATING TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING. S/SW-WINDS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE...BACKING NW AND REMAINING BREEZY
WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TOWARDS MORNING. SEAS REMAIN BELOW
5-FEET.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
NW-BREEZY WINDS FRIDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS TURN LIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT VEERING S BY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
KTS. INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARDS THE LATER-HALF OF THE PERIOD. WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST PERIOD DRY WHILE SEAS REMAIN BELOW 5-FEET.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ231-232-255-256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ250-254.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...KJC/SIPPRELL
MARINE...KJC/SIPPRELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
905 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
THE BULK OF THE FORCING FOR PRECIP HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST FOR THE
TIME BEING. RAP OUTPUT SHOWS GRADUAL INCREASING COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE
HRRR IS MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOPING AFTER 11Z ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70, AND SPOTTY SHOWERS
FROM JACKSONVILLE TO SPRINGFIELD. HAVE REDUCED POPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING, AND WENT WITH INCREASING POPS TO HIGHER
CHANCE FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 08Z/3AM TO 12Z/7AM TONIGHT.
A BAND OF SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM ACROSS IOWA AND THE SURGE OF
MOISTURE AND SHOWERS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI LENDS SOME
CONFIDENCE TO SOME PRECIP DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT IN THE WEST AT
LEAST.
CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP LOW TEMPS ON THE MILD
SIDE, IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S, WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED.
UPDATED FORECAST INFO IS ALREADY AVAILABLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL IL HAS BEEN HARD TO
MOVE TODAY AS PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE AFFECTED
AIRMASS CHANGES. BROAD BOUNDARY OF AIRMASS DIFFERENCES FROM 60S IN
NORTHERN IL AND 70S TO 80S IN SOUTH. AMPLE VERY MOIST AIRMASS OVER
REGION HAS KEPT PCPN MOVING OVER AREA THROUGH THE DAY...BUT THE
PCPN HAS BEEN RAINFALL PRODUCERS THAT ARE MOVING ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
QUICK BURST OF HEAVY RAIN AND THEN MOVE ON. MUCAPES OVER AREA IN
THE 1000-2000 RANGE BUT WITH A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SHEAR. MOISTURE
CHANNEL DATA CONTINUES TO SHOWS FETCH OF DEEP MOISTURE FROM OK/TX
SYSTEM INTO MO AND IL.
EXPECT A BRIEF TEMPORARY LULL IN PCPN IN THE LATE EVENING DUE TO
WEAK UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH...AND THEN STARTING BY
MIDNIGHT...CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN. MOISTURE FETCH WILL KEEP CHANCE
POPS IN AREA OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS PSBL.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH OF IL THURSDAY
PUSHING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL IL
DURING THE DAY...WHILE RICH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UP TO AROUND 2
INCHES STREAM INTO SOUTHEAST IL AHEAD OF THE REMNANTS OF FORMER
TROPICAL STORM BILL. STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT...AND POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY IN THE
MOISTURE RICH PLUME AHEAD OF BILL REMNANTS COULD RESULT IN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY WITH A STRONG WIND GUST THREAT AS WELL
AS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. THE MITIGATING FACTORS WILL BE EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER AND RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT TENDING TO REDUCE
INSTABILITY.
SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN OR CENTRAL IL LOOKS TO BE A
CONTINUED FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL INTO FRIDAY AS
MODELS MOVE BILL REMNANTS TOWARD SOUTHERN IL...GENERALLY SPREADING
WIDESPREAD RAIN INTO SOUTHERN IL FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY FRIDAY BEFORE THE MAIN
SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST IL. 12Z NAM IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER
THAN CONSENSUS OF OTHER MODELS WITH THE MOVEMENT OF BILL...SO THIS
OUTLIER SCENARIO IS LESS LIKELY. TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO TRACK THIS
SYSTEM THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE THE PAST FEW MODEL
RUNS...AND THEREFORE THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST
FAVORED AREA FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION.
FOLLOWING BILL...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL LIKELY BRING A GAP IN
PRECIPITATION FOR 12 HOURS OR SO SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN
ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE/COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY. TIMING OF THIS DRIER PERIOD REMAINS
PROBLEMATIC THIS FAR OUT...SO FORECAST POPS THIS PERIOD CONTINUE TO
REFLECT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE CATEGORY. HIGHS SHOULD INCREASE TO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IL SATURDAY IN
THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEHIND BILL. A LARGE SCALE RIDGE BUILDING INTO
THE CENTRAL U.S. SHOULD BRING A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND. HAVE GONE
WITH A DRY TO SLIGHT CHANCE PRECIP FORECAST FOR TUESDAY TO
WEDNESDAY. HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S BY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
MVFR CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS COULD DRIFT NEAR SPI AND DEC AS THE
PRIMARY STORM TRACK REMAINS SOUTH OF OUR TERMINAL SITES THIS
EVENING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE INDICATED IN THE RAP13 MODEL AFTER
10Z TONIGHT, WITH THE HRRR DRY UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE NEAR ANY
TERMINAL SITES. WE COULD SEE CLOUD HEIGHTS LIFT TO VFR THIS
EVENING, BUT MVFR CLOUDS SHOULD RETURN LATER TONIGHT AS PRECIP
CHANCES RAMP UP JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME MVFR
FOG DOWN TO 4SM AROUND BMI, AND POSSIBLY OTHER SITES AS WELL. WENT
CONSERVATIVE WITH FOG FOR NOW AND JUST INCLUDED AT BMI.
STORM CHANCES INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON, AS A WAVE PUSHES ACROSS
THE AREA. A VCTS WAS INCLUDED AFTER 16-18Z WITH VFR CLOUDS.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SOUTHWEST THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING,
THEN SHIFT MORE WESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS REACHING
10-12KT AT TIMES.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SHIMON
SHORT TERM...GOETSCH
LONG TERM...ONTON
AVIATION...SHIMON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
700 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL IL HAS BEEN HARD TO
MOVE TODAY AS PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE AFFECTED
AIRMASS CHANGES. BROAD BOUNDARY OF AIRMASS DIFFERENCES FROM 60S IN
NORTHERN IL AND 70S TO 80S IN SOUTH. AMPLE VERY MOIST AIRMASS OVER
REGION HAS KEPT PCPN MOVING OVER AREA THROUGH THE DAY...BUT THE
PCPN HAS BEEN RAINFALL PRODUCERS THAT ARE MOVING ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
QUICK BURST OF HEAVY RAIN AND THEN MOVE ON. MUCAPES OVER AREA IN
THE 1000-2000 RANGE BUT WITH A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SHEAR. MOISTURE
CHANNEL DATA CONTINUES TO SHOWS FETCH OF DEEP MOISTURE FROM OK/TX
SYSTEM INTO MO AND IL.
EXPECT A BRIEF TEMPORARY LULL IN PCPN IN THE LATE EVENING DUE TO
WEAK UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH...AND THEN STARTING BY
MIDNIGHT...CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN. MOISTURE FETCH WILL KEEP CHANCE
POPS IN AREA OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS PSBL.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH OF IL THURSDAY
PUSHING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL IL
DURING THE DAY...WHILE RICH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UP TO AROUND 2
INCHES STREAM INTO SOUTHEAST IL AHEAD OF THE REMNANTS OF FORMER
TROPICAL STORM BILL. STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT...AND POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY IN THE
MOISTURE RICH PLUME AHEAD OF BILL REMNANTS COULD RESULT IN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY WITH A STRONG WIND GUST THREAT AS WELL
AS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. THE MITIGATING FACTORS WILL BE EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER AND RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT TENDING TO REDUCE
INSTABILITY.
SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN OR CENTRAL IL LOOKS TO BE A
CONTINUED FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL INTO FRIDAY AS
MODELS MOVE BILL REMNANTS TOWARD SOUTHERN IL...GENERALLY SPREADING
WIDESPREAD RAIN INTO SOUTHERN IL FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY FRIDAY BEFORE THE MAIN
SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST IL. 12Z NAM IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER
THAN CONSENSUS OF OTHER MODELS WITH THE MOVEMENT OF BILL...SO THIS
OUTLIER SCENARIO IS LESS LIKELY. TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO TRACK THIS
SYSTEM THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE THE PAST FEW MODEL
RUNS...AND THEREFORE THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST
FAVORED AREA FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION.
FOLLOWING BILL...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL LIKELY BRING A GAP IN
PRECIPITATION FOR 12 HOURS OR SO SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN
ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE/COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY. TIMING OF THIS DRIER PERIOD REMAINS
PROBLEMATIC THIS FAR OUT...SO FORECAST POPS THIS PERIOD CONTINUE TO
REFLECT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE CATEGORY. HIGHS SHOULD INCREASE TO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IL SATURDAY IN
THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEHIND BILL. A LARGE SCALE RIDGE BUILDING INTO
THE CENTRAL U.S. SHOULD BRING A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND. HAVE GONE
WITH A DRY TO SLIGHT CHANCE PRECIP FORECAST FOR TUESDAY TO
WEDNESDAY. HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S BY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
MVFR CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS COULD DRIFT NEAR SPI AND DEC AS THE
PRIMARY STORM TRACK REMAINS SOUTH OF OUR TERMINAL SITES THIS
EVENING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE INDICATED IN THE RAP13 MODEL AFTER
10Z TONIGHT, WITH THE HRRR DRY UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE NEAR ANY
TERMINAL SITES. WE COULD SEE CLOUD HEIGHTS LIFT TO VFR THIS
EVENING, BUT MVFR CLOUDS SHOULD RETURN LATER TONIGHT AS PRECIP
CHANCES RAMP UP JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME MVFR
FOG DOWN TO 4SM AROUND BMI, AND POSSIBLY OTHER SITES AS WELL. WENT
CONSERVATIVE WITH FOG FOR NOW AND JUST INCLUDED AT BMI.
STORM CHANCES INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON, AS A WAVE PUSHES ACROSS
THE AREA. A VCTS WAS INCLUDED AFTER 16-18Z WITH VFR CLOUDS.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SOUTHWEST THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING,
THEN SHIFT MORE WESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS REACHING
10-12KT AT TIMES.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ILZ052-054>057-
061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GOETSCH
LONG TERM...ONTON
AVIATION...SHIMON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
120 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
A COLD FRONT OVER WISCONSIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT CAUSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA TUESDAY... CONFINING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA AND THEN LIFT BACK NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN BACK TO THE AREA. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S... WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH HAS BEEN STNRY FOR SOME TIME TO OUR NORTH
WAS BEGINNING TO MAKE SEWD PROGRESS TODAY IN RESPONSE TO A SHRTWV
MOVG ACROSS ONTARIO MERGING WITH SECOND SYSTEM LIFTING NE FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA WITH
PWATS AROUND 2" HAS DESTABILIZED IN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY ALLOWING
NUMEROUS TSTMS TO DEVELOP. SOME BACKBUILDING/TRAINING CELLS OCRG
ATTM AS SUGGESTED BY RAP 5-10KT UPWIND PROPAGATION VECTORS. LATEST
HRRR SUGGESTS SCT-NUMEROUS STORMS WILL CONT LATE THIS AFTN AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WITH MORE WIDESPREAD TSTMS FORMING ALONG THE FRONT
LATE THIS AFTN AND MOVG THROUGH OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. THUS... STILL
APPEARS TO BE A GOOD SETUP FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS OUR AREA
SO FFA ISSUED EARLIER TODAY WILL CONT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
CDFNT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE STALLING OUT ON
TUE. SOME LINGERING POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS PSBL IN THE MORNING AND WK
INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW A FEW MORE TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN... BUT
OVERALL APPEARS TO BE A DAY TO DRY OUT.
WK CAA BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE 60S
TONIGHT WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS ALLOWING HIGHS TO
REACH THE L-M80S ON TUE.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
WET PATTERN AND FLOODING CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A CONSISTENT SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FEED PUMPS PWAT
VALUES AOA 2.0" INTO THE CWA. ONLY DAY OF RELIEF IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD MAY BE FRIDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SLIDES THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES AND TRIES TO SLIDE OUR PESKY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOUTHWARD. SOME PRECIP IS STILL POSSIBLE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY ON
FRIDAY...BUT THE HIGHLY EFFICIENT WARM CLOUD PROCESSES WILL CEASE
NORTH OF THE FRONT. THE REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY
IN THE WESTERN GULF ADVECT INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND
RETURN THE MUGGY CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHERN LAKES. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF INDICATE THE TROPICAL SYSTEM MAY PHASE WITH A NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE AND DEVELOP A SUB 1000MB SURFACE REFLECTION IN THE
VICINITY OF THE GREAT LAKES. A DECENT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES MAY BE JUST WHAT WE NEED TO FINALLY SHUNT THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND USHER IN DRIER CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS OVER AND STRATIFORM RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AS
SURFACE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. SOME POSTFRONTAL IFR
STRATUS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...BUT UPSTREAM SURFACE OBS ARE
HIGHLY VARIABLE SO JUST WENT WITH TEMPO MENTION FOR NOW. STRONG
PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE/DRY AIR WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE
MORNING THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ EARLY THIS MORNING
FOR INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.
MI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
MIZ077>081.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR OHZ001-
002-004-005-015-016-024-025.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...AGD
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
659 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR THE IA/MN BORDER TO THE QUAD CITIES
AND THEN TO NORTHERN INDIANA. NORTH OF THE FRONT DEWPOINTS WERE IN
THE LOWER 60S (IN THE 50S IN WI) BUT TO THE SOUTH DEWS WERE WELL
INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE CWA WERE IN
THE 70S WHICH HAS BEEN HELD DOWN BY EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING INTO SW MN AND INTO WESTERN IA AND THEN
TO NW KS. MIDWEST MOSAIC RADAR LOOPS INDICATE A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE BETTER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM CENTRAL MO TO WESTERN IL AND THEN INTO EASTERN IL.
ELSEWHERE... A FEW STRONGER STORMS WERE NOTED IN NORTHCENTRAL IOWA
AND SE MN WHERE SBCAPES WERE 2500 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WAS
STRONG AT 50 KNOTS.
ACROSS THE DVN CWA DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER INSTABILITY WAS VERY
MINIMAL AND SHEAR IS WEAK AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THIS WAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATERS IN THE CWA WERE AROUND 1.5 INCHES WITH THE
OVER 2 INCH PWATS FROM TX TO SOUTHERN IL. TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL
WAS LOCATED IN THE DALLAS/FT. WORTH METROPLEX EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
FORECAST FOCUS ON CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TONIGHT...OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE VERY MUCH IN DISAGREEMENT WITH
REGARDS TO CONVECTIVE TRENDS. ECMWF IS ESSENTIALLY DRY WHILE THE
GFS IS THE WETTEST. THE NAM IGNITES THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN OUR
FAR SOUTH WHILE THE HI-RES HRRR MESO MODEL BRINGS WEAKENING
THUNDERSTORMS INTO OUR NW CWA THIS EVENING AND LEAVES THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT DRY. I WILL ESSENTIALLY BE TAKING A MIDDLE
OF THE ROAD APPROACH AND LEAVING POPS IN THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE.
FORCING/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK ALONG WITH
MINIMAL INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CWA AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL NEED TO
MENTION AT LEAST A SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED BUT THERE MAY BE
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS ESPECIALLY BEFORE
SUNSET. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NORTH TO
LOWER 70S SOUTH.
THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY PROBABLY ALONG
HIGHWAY 34 AS THE REMNANTS OF BILL TRACKS NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON. OUR NORTH WILL GRADUALLY SEE DRIER
AIR WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 50S DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL REMAIN IN THE JUICY AIRMASS
AS THE FRONT STALLS. AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY SO I WILL
MAINTAIN THE 40-50 POPS. THE BULK OF THE MODELS KEEP THE HEAVIEST
RAINS SOUTH OF THE DVN CWA. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL..NOW SHOWN TRACKING WELL TO THE
SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN MO INTO SOUTHERN IL THU NIGHT INTO FRI
NIGHT...WILL KEEP MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A QUIET WEATHER
REGIME FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. MORE ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS LATE
SATURDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS A FRONT DROPPING
SOUTH INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BECOMES STALLED OUT. THIS WILL
PROVIDE NEARLY DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
THURSDAY NIGHT...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER ALBERTA IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD SE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER
SHOT OF DRY EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WELL INTO EASTERN IA THROUGH
MIDDAY FRI. THE ONLY POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE ALONG
THE REMNANT SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT WASHES OUT FROM NORTHERN MO INTO
CENTRAL IL OVERNIGHT AND HAVE LOW POPS IN PLACE. ANY THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE LIMITED TO EARLY EVENING...ANTICIPATING THE VERY LOW MODEL
MUCAPES AND STABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE OVERNIGHT. SOMEWHAT
LIKE THIS MORNING...THE DRY AIR WITH DEWPOINTS LOWERING INTO THE 50S
OVER IL...WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO COOL INTO THE MID 50S NE TO
LOWER 60S SW. WITH AT LEAST HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER LIKELY...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 FRIDAY WITH
SURFACE WINDS BACKING TO THE SOUTH BY EVENING AS THE HIGH RETREATS
EASTWARD. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
SOUTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SOUTHERLY WINDS EDGE DEWPOINTS BACK
UPWARDS AND THE REMNANT WEAK CONVERGENT BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR CONVECTION.
SATURDAY...BILL DISSIPATES TO THE SE AS AN INCOMING FRONT AND
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH BECOME THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURES. STRONG THETAE ADVECTION FEEDING INTO THE REGION
IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AN MCS THAT IS LIKELY
TO PUSH THROUGH WITH THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY
POPS ARE MAINTAINED. HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS...WITH PW VALUES POSSIBLE
NEAR 2 INCHES...WILL BRING THE FIRST THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN BACK INTO
THE FORECAST. STRONG PREFRONTAL WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL SEND HIGHS
BACK INTO THE 80S WHILE DEWPOINTS LIKELY RETURN TO THE LOWER 70S.
THIS WILL LEAD TO UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING
WINDS WITH SEVERE STORMS AS OUTLINED IN THE SPC DAY 4 SEVERE OUTLOOK
15 PERCENT AREA CENTERED OVER EASTERN IA.
SUNDAY THROUGH WED...THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW HAVE BETTER AGREEMENT
DEPICTING THE WEST TO EAST FRONT...SUPPRESSED TO NORTHERN MO SUNDAY
NIGHT...LIFTING BACK NORTH AND BECOMING STALLED OUT ROUGHLY ALONG
HIGHWAY 30 BY TUE NIGHT. THE MODELS THEN DEPART WITH THE ECMWF
LIFTING THE BOUNDARY NORTH INTO MN AND SOUTHERN WI WHILE THE GFS IS
FURTHER SOUTH. EITHER WAY...WITH AN ACTIVE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
AND UPPER JET TRACK JUST TO THE NORTH...THE SETUP IS PRIME FOR AN
ACTIVE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES
THROUGHOUT. FOR NOW...HAVE HIGHER POPS IN THE NORTH CLOSER TO THE
MOST LIKELY FRONTAL POSITION. WITH AN OPEN FEED OF GULF MOISTURE...
SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE A DAILY THREAT. THIS WOULD
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF FLOODING ON AREA RIVERS
THAT WILL LIKELY HAVE RETURNED TO THEIR BANKS BY THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
A BKN MVFR DECK WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACRS PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THIS EVENING...WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS UP NORTH OF I80. THIS WILL
MAKE FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AROUND THE FRONT...THEN GO LIGHT
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWEST. WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING IN ACRS
CENTRAL IA INTO NORTHEAST MN...ISOLATED TO WDLY SCTRD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE EVENING AT CID AND
DBQ...BUT COVERAGE MAY BE TOO SPARSE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS ATTM.
LATE TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING THERE MAY BE A
CHANCE FOR A SHOWER GETTING INTO THE VCNTY OF ALL TAF SITES AS
THE FRONT SAGS ACRS THE LOCAL AREA. AGAIN COVERAGE AT QUESTION AT
THIS JUNCTURE AND WILL NOT INCLUDE VCNTY WORDING. SOME FOG AND
LOWERING CIGS TO AT LEAST LOWER LEVEL MVFR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
IN THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT...ISOLATED IFR JUST BEFORE DAWN. AS THU
PROGRESSES...EXPECT VEERING AND INCREASING SFC WINDS TO THE WEST
OR NORTHWEST WITH DECREASING CIGS BY LATE MORNING. ALL EXCEPT BRL
WHERE THE FRONT MAY HANG UP JUST TO THE SOUTH AND KEEP THE THREAT
OF SCTRD SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. ..12..
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
335 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
PLEASANT DAY IN STORE ACROSS MOST OF THE DVN CWA WITH AN EAST
WIND BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA...COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS.
PRECIPITABLE WATERS WERE LESS THAN AN INCH AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS
WERE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. HOWEVER...IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES DEWS WERE IN THE MID 60S AND PWATS A BIT OVER AN INCH.
FARTHER SOUTH THE REALLY HIGH PWATS WERE LURKING WITH OVER 2 INCHES
AS YOU GET DOWN TOWARDS ST. LOUIS. TO THE NORTH DEWPOINTS WERE
ONLY IN THE 40S OVER PORTIONS OF MN EASTWARD TO MI.
3 PM TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S IN THE CWA
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...OUR FAR
SOUTH WAS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A LARGER CLOUD SHIELD THAT WAS
COVERING THE MID MS VALLEY. THIS WAS AHEAD OF LANDFALLING TROPICAL
STORM BILL IN SE TX.
MOSAIC MIDWEST RADAR LOOPS INDICATE A LINE OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...FROM SE KS TO
CENTRAL MO AND INTO SOUTHERN IL. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE SHORT TERM.
TONIGHT...DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO OUR NORTHEAST CWA
ON EAST WINDS WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 40S FOR A TIME
OVERNIGHT. IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA DEWS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 60S.
OPERATIONAL MODELS INCLUDING THE HI-RES MESO HRRR INDICATE WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT DEVELOPING IN OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AS A LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES
A BIT. THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH FORCING AND INSTABILITY TO ALLOW
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SO I WILL HAVE
HIGH END CHANCE POPS. DRIER AIR FARTHER NORTH SHOULD DISSIPATE ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY TRYING TO WORK NORTHWARD. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH AT MOST LOCATIONS IN
OUR FAR SOUTH. OUR FAR SOUTH COULD GET LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. CLOUD
COVER WILL PROGRESS NORTHWARD AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALSO SHIFTS
A BIT NORTHWARD. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S
IN FAR NW IL TO THE MID 60S FAR SOUTH.
WEDNESDAY...WEAK LOW LEVEL JET VEERS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND
OHIO VALLEY WITH THE FORCING GRADUALLY PUSHING AWAY FROM THE DVN
CWA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DRY DAY IN OUR NORTHERN CWA WITH
CHANCE POPS IN OUR FAR SOUTH CLOSER TO THE NEARLY STALLED FRONT
WELL TO OUR SOUTH. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE AREA REMAINS
HIGHLY VULNERABLE TO CONTINUED RIVER FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING DUE
TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST WEEK. FROM MID TO LATE
WEEK...THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL
MOVING INTO THE TX GULF COAST...WHICH MODEL CONSENSUS NOW HAS
CURVING NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THEN TRACKING E-NE
ACROSS CENTRAL MO INTO SOUTHERN IL FRI AND SAT...WHICH WOULD SPARE
THE FORECAST AREA FROM HEAVY RAINFALL.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA WED NIGHT WILL WARRANT LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT
QPF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS THEN LAYS OUT A BOUNDARY FROM
NORTHERN IL NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND RETURNING
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REQUIRE KEEPING AT LEAST LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE PASSING LOW THROUGHOUT. OVER THE REST OF THE
AREA...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES IS SHOWN SENDING A
BACKDOOR COOL FRONT AND A SURGE OF E-NE WINDS THU NIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING IN LOWER HUMIDITY AND THEN LIMIT HIGHS TO THE MID 70S TO
AROUND 80 FRI...AFTER ANOTHER DAY OF LOWER 80S THU.
SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...ONCE THE WEAKENING REMNANTS OF BILL
PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A PREFRONTAL STRONG W-SW
SURGE OF VERY WARM...MOIST AIR OUT AHEAD FEEDING INTO THE REGION.
THIS WILL BRING BACK HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND THETAE ADVECTION
ALOFT THAT MAY FUEL AN OVERNIGHT MCS WITH THE PASSING FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT...WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST ARE PLACED.
THIS WILL ALSO BE THE NEXT GREATEST THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH
SHOULD FOLLOW SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY WEATHER OR LOW PRECIPITATION
EVENTS THAT WILL ALLOW SURFACE CONDITIONS TO DRY SOME AND RIVERS TO
BEGIN RECEDING. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL FEATURE A NEARLY ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WITH THE REGION ALONG THE EDGE OF THE STRONGER WESTERLIES
WITH WARM AIR BUILDING OVER THE PLAINS AND AVAILABLE GULF MOISTURE.
THIS RING OF FIRE TYPE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT PERIODIC MCS ACTIVITY
OVER...OR POSSIBLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK ALONG WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
VFR CONDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THEN MOISTURE INCREASES FROM
THE SOUTH AND CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR...FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
ACROSS THE TAF SITES. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO DEVELOP LATER
THIS EVENING IN THE SOUTH AND SPREAD NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE AT AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...HAASE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
611 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2015
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 242 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
08Z water vapor shows tropical storm Bill moving north between an
upper level ridge over north FL and another upper ridge over the
eastern Pacific. Meanwhile the mean westerlies remain to the north
of the forecast area in almost a zonal pattern. At the surface, a
weak surface ridge of high pressure continues to build south into
the central Plains. The frontal boundary has moved through most if
not all of the forecast area, stretching from west central MO into
north central OK.
For today and tonight, the surface high pressure system has shifted
the deeper moisture axis to the south and east of the forecast area
where models tend to keep the moisture axis through tonight.
Additionally there is no real large scale forcing to speak of with
any shortwave energy remaining north within the mean westerlies. Low
level lift looks questionable as the surface ridge weakens through
the day and the front washes out. Models still show some modest
instability, but lapse rates remain relatively shallow. Overall it
is just hard to see what might force precip to become more than just
isolated. Nevertheless have held onto some chance POPs across east
central KS during the afternoon and early evening when peak heating
and localized convergence could contribute for storm formation.
Storms would likely still have high rainfall rates combined with
slow storm motions to pose an isolated excessive rainfall risk.
Other than that, nothing else appears likely to pose a weather
hazard. Temps today could be tricky depending on how the cloud cover
behaves. For now models keep a low cloud deck over much of the area
through the day. While I don`t expect there to be a solid stratus
deck with overcast skies all day, insolation could be limited enough
without any warm air advection at the surface to keep highs around
80 today. Lows tonight are expected to be in the mid and upper 60s
as southerly winds return, bringing higher dewpoints north. This
should also help to keep skies partly to mostly cloudy and limit
any radiational cooling.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 242 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
At the start of the long term, there should be zonal flow across
the northern CONUS with the remnants of "Bill" moving northeast
across the southern plains. The 00Z ECMWF/GFS/NAM/GEM all lift
the remnants of Bill into the Ozarks Thursday and Friday. At that
point, it gets caught up in the westerlies and carried off to the
east. All of the model QPF keep the rainfall associated with Bill
southeast of our forecast area. The southeast counties may catch
the northwest corner of the rain band or shield. Given the
strength of the westerlies just to our north, keeping the remnants
of Bill to our southeast seems reasonable.
In the meantime, a weak cold front may push into northeast Kansas
by Thursday morning and then either wash out or lift back north
late in the week. Unless the remnants of Bill provide rain chances
Wednesday and Thursday, the boundary seems to be the only modest
support for precipitation chances. Even so, mid-level lapse rates
look unsupportable for vigorous convection. Overall, lowered POPS
during this time period. It will be warm and humid in general
which will be the main sensible weather feature.
In the extended, the upper ridge really starts to build into the
central plains early next week according to the 00Z ECMWF and to
some extent the GFS. Before then, a slightly stronger front is
forecast to move into Kansas in association with a northern stream
shortwave moving east in the zonal flow across the northern tier
states. Ahead of this boundary, temperatures should reach the
lower 90s on Saturday with northeast Kansas being in the low-level
thermal ridge. As the boundary moves into northeast Kansas
Saturday night, will forecast the highest POPS in the extended
forecast. Any cooling behind the front will be short-lived as the
upper ridge builds in early next week and the frontal boundary
quickly retreats north.
Overall, the weather pattern in the extended is starting to
resemble summertime with less POPS overall and warm weather.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 611 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
The terminals have been on the northern fringe of the low clouds.
Meanwhile model guidance would have had the lower clouds further
north. The 10Z RAP suggests the lower humidity may eventually mix
out by the afternoon. So with the surface ridge still slowly
working towards northeast KS, will go with a persistence forecast
with MHK and TOP remaining on the norther fringe of the lower CIGS
and keep MVFR CIGS at FOE through the morning. Confidence is low
since guidance continues to over forecast the low clouds. Think
precip should remain to the southeast today.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Johnson
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1140 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY:
NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WHILE A MID-UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTION OF
THE NORTHERN BRANCH WAVE...WILL CONTINUE PUSHING INTO SOUTHEASTERN
KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTHWEST
TUESDAY MORNING...THEN WASHING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. ANOMALOUSLY
RICH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIRMASS (~1.75 IN.) WILL PERSIST OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS AND WILL HAVE RELATIVELY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES IN
THOSE AREAS...WHERE WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS POSSIBLE UNDER
WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT. LATEST SPC HRRR VERSION PUSHES CURRENT
CONVECTION OUT OF SOUTHEAST KS BY MID EVENING...WITH A SIGNIFICANT LULL
THEREAFTER. WOULD THINK EVEN IF THIS HAPPENS...THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SHEAR AXIS EMANATING FROM WEST TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD...COULD IGNITE
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ~4KM OR GREATER
AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS FAVOR LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. IN
ADDITION...SOUNDING PROFILES WOULD ALSO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED WET
MICROBURST OR TWO.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY:
WITH REGARD TO THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE HEADING
INTO SOUTH TEXAS LATE TONIGHT...THE GFS...ECMWF...AND NAM-WRF OFFER
VASTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. THIS IS NOT SURPRISING GIVEN THE
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY THAT THIS SYSTEM
COULD IMPACT FAR SOUTHEAST KS SOMETIME LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY IF THE GFS AND NAM ARE MORE CORRECT...ALTHOUGH THE NAM
APPEARS TOO FAST WITH THE NORTH-NORTHEAST MOVEMENT. THE ECMWF
INDICATES ANY IMPACTS TO SOUTHEAST KS WOULD NOT COME UNTIL FRIDAY-
FRIDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...OVERALL CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/TRACK OF THIS
DISTURBANCE IS LOW AT THIS JUNCTURE.
NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES BUT HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST DURING
THIS ENTIRE PERIOD.
JMC
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
THE REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ARE PROGGED TO PUSH WELL
EAST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND...WHILE A FAIRLY
STRONG/AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE ECMWF WAS STRONGER WITH THE
AMPLIFCATION...DRIVING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. IT HAS AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. THE GFS DID NOT AMPLIFY THE SHORTWAVE AS MUCH...AND AS A
RESULT BRINGS THE FRONT TO CENTRAL KS NEAR I-70 BEFORE STALLING THE
BOUNDARY. A COMPROMISE OF THESE SOLUTIONS WOULD BRING THE FRONT INTO
THE HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES RATHER WARM...ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE IN
THE FORECAST...COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED.
JMC
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT FAR SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION FOR TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL VEER OUT TO THE SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
JAKUB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 68 83 69 86 / 20 50 20 20
HUTCHINSON 66 83 67 87 / 20 20 20 20
NEWTON 66 82 68 85 / 20 40 20 20
ELDORADO 68 82 69 85 / 30 60 30 40
WINFIELD-KWLD 69 83 70 85 / 30 60 40 40
RUSSELL 63 83 66 88 / 0 10 20 10
GREAT BEND 64 83 66 88 / 10 20 20 10
SALINA 66 83 68 87 / 10 20 20 20
MCPHERSON 66 83 68 87 / 10 20 20 20
COFFEYVILLE 70 82 71 82 / 60 70 60 60
CHANUTE 69 82 70 83 / 50 60 60 60
IOLA 69 82 69 83 / 50 60 50 60
PARSONS-KPPF 70 82 71 83 / 60 70 60 60
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1029 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1029 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
FORECAST APPEARS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID
AFTERNOON ON THE WAY. DID INCREASE POPS A BIT THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING BASED ON LATEST HIRES MODEL DATA. STILL EXPECT
BEST THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO BE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES BUT
EVEN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD SEE BETTER COVERAGE THAN THEY
HAVE SEEN IN RECENT DAYS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
A FEW SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO POP UP OVER OUR FAR NORTH WHILE
ELSEWHERE THE FOG IS AT A MINIMUM. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE UPDATED THE
GRIDS TO REFLECT THE NEAR TERM WX. ALSO TWEAKED THE T/TD GRIDS
PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD
AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESHENED SET OF ZONES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STILL HOLDING OVER SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY...THOUGH A COLD FRONT IS MOVING CLOSER TO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH. ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY ONGOING
CONVECTION IS TRACKING WEST TO EAST FROM SOUTHERN INDIANA THROUGH
OHIO. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS MAY BRUSH THE FAR NORTHERN
REACHES OF OUR CWA BY DAWN. OTHERWISE...IT IS A QUIET NIGHT
THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUPPORTING ANOTHER
SMALL TO MODERATE RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE ON THE
ORDER OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES. SPECIFICALLY THE READINGS VARIED FROM
THE MID 70S TO THE MID 60S...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS
GENERALLY FROM 65 TO 70 DEGREES. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...ANY
VALLEY FOG OUT THERE IS NOT SHOWING UP IN THE OBS OR SEEN ON AREA
WEB CAMS.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT THE PERSISTENT
SOUTHEAST RIDGE WEAKENING A BIT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TOPPING IT AND RIDING EASTWARD ON ITS NORTHERN FRINGE.
THIS MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL BRUSH THROUGH NORTHERN KENTUCKY
TODAY...DOWNSTREAM OF LANDFALLING TROPICAL STORM BILL OVER THE
WESTERN GULF. TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THIS WILL WORK INTO THE
SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY LATER IN THE WEEK...THOUGH THERE IS CURRENTLY
HIGH PW AIR...APPROACHING TWO INCHES...JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA.
GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
SOLUTIONS OF THE HRRR AND NAM12 THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...BUT WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS AND INCREASED
COVERAGE THROUGH THE AREA...THOUGH STILL FAVORING THE NORTH. THE
CONVECTION AND CLOUDS THAT RESULTS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS IN THE
NORTH...AND PLACES THAT SEE RAIN...A BIT COOLER THAN THOSE OF
YESTERDAY. THE STORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP TODAY COULD BE
ORGANIZED RESULTING IN A THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY
RAINS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN THE FORTHCOMING HWO.
EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO SETTLE DOWN LATER THIS EVENING...BUT WITH
THE FRONT NEARBY CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ACTIVITY DURING THE NIGHT. AGAIN LATE NIGHT PATCHY VALLEY FOG AND
MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THE FRONT LOOKS TO RELOAD ON
WEDNESDAY AS IT STARTS TO TAP THE MOISTURE FROM BILL WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY FOR THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THESE STORMS ON WEDNESDAY MAY BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN SLIGHTLY BETTER UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...WILL ALSO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.
AGAIN THE T/TD/WINDS GRIDS WERE STARTED OFF FROM THE SHORTBLEND
GUIDANCE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SUPERBLEND. DID
MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOWS TONIGHT FOR TERRAIN
DISTINCTIONS. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSEST TO THE HIGHER MET
MOS NUMBERS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS KEPT THE REGION PERSISTENTLY
WARMER THAN NORMAL THIS PAST WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO EXERT ITS
INFLUENCE TO SOME EXTENT ON THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS TO
BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE ABLE
TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS THAT WILL
STILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY SHOULD
DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY ONCE THE SUN GOES DOWN...WITH MOST OF THE
AREA BEING RAIN FREE BY 5 OR 6Z THURSDAY. RENEWED ACTIVITY IS THEN
EXPECTED TO FIRE UP DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...ONCE WE GET SOME
DAY TIME HEATING GOING AND A SLUGGISH FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN
PARKED WELL NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER FINALLY BEGINS TO SLIDE
SOUTHWARD. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FROM THURSDAY ONWARD WILL BE HOW
WELL DEFINED THE BOUNDARY IS WHEN IT MOVES INTO OUR AREA. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE...BUT CONSISTENT FRONTAL FORCING
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY COULD BE. THE MODELS DIFFER
GREATLY LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE GFS BEING MUCH WETTER OVERALL
THAN THE ECMWF. IT APPEARS THAT THE ECMWF HAS A DIFFICULT TIME
RESOLVING A CONSISTENT SURFACE TRIGGER...WHILE THE GFS PRODUCES A
MORE WELL DEFINED FRONT AND ALSO HAS ITS FRONT A BIT FURTHER
SOUTHWARD THAT THE ECMWF. DUE TO ALL THIS UNCERTAINTY...DECIDED NOT
TO GO TO HIGH WITH PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH 30 TO 40 POPS ON AVERAGE EACH
DAY...WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. ANOTHER POTENTIAL PLAYER IN PRECIP CHANCES TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE REMNANTS OF TC BILL. THE
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION RECEIVED ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGIONS WILL DEPEND ALOT ON HOW MUCH INFLUENCE BILL IS ABLE
TO HAVE ON THE REGION. THIS WILL BE THE KEY TO WATCH AS WE APPROACH
THE END OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH DAY TIME HIGHS GENERALLY MAXING OUT IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S...WITH BALMY NIGHTLY LOW TEMPERATURES ONLY FALLING TO
AROUND 70.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 735 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
WIND WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST TO GENERALLY
BETWEEN NEAR 10 KTS BY MIDDAY WITH SPOTTY CONVECTION REFIRING
ACROSS THE AREA BY NOON...WITH EARLIER CELLS FOUND IN THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. DUE TO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...INCLUDING
SYM...AS WELL AS JKL AND SJS...APPEAR TO HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE
FOR SEEING CONVECTION DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
MVFR CIG AND VIS CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS...BUT
FOR THE MOST PART VFR WILL HOLD SWAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF/ABE
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
735 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
A FEW SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO POP UP OVER OUR FAR NORTH WHILE
ELSEWHERE THE FOG IS AT A MINIMUM. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE UPDATED THE
GRIDS TO REFLECT THE NEAR TERM WX. ALSO TWEAKED THE T/TD GRIDS
PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD
AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESHENED SET OF ZONES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STILL HOLDING OVER SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY...THOUGH A COLD FRONT IS MOVING CLOSER TO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH. ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY ONGOING
CONVECTION IS TRACKING WEST TO EAST FROM SOUTHERN INDIANA THROUGH
OHIO. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS MAY BRUSH THE FAR NORTHERN
REACHES OF OUR CWA BY DAWN. OTHERWISE...IT IS A QUIET NIGHT
THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUPPORTING ANOTHER
SMALL TO MODERATE RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE ON THE
ORDER OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES. SPECIFICALLY THE READINGS VARIED FROM
THE MID 70S TO THE MID 60S...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS
GENERALLY FROM 65 TO 70 DEGREES. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...ANY
VALLEY FOG OUT THERE IS NOT SHOWING UP IN THE OBS OR SEEN ON AREA
WEB CAMS.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT THE PERSISTENT
SOUTHEAST RIDGE WEAKENING A BIT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TOPPING IT AND RIDING EASTWARD ON ITS NORTHERN FRINGE.
THIS MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL BRUSH THROUGH NORTHERN KENTUCKY
TODAY...DOWNSTREAM OF LANDFALLING TROPICAL STORM BILL OVER THE
WESTERN GULF. TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THIS WILL WORK INTO THE
SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY LATER IN THE WEEK...THOUGH THERE IS CURRENTLY
HIGH PW AIR...APPROACHING TWO INCHES...JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA.
GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
SOLUTIONS OF THE HRRR AND NAM12 THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...BUT WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS AND INCREASED
COVERAGE THROUGH THE AREA...THOUGH STILL FAVORING THE NORTH. THE
CONVECTION AND CLOUDS THAT RESULTS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS IN THE
NORTH...AND PLACES THAT SEE RAIN...A BIT COOLER THAN THOSE OF
YESTERDAY. THE STORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP TODAY COULD BE
ORGANIZED RESULTING IN A THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY
RAINS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN THE FORTHCOMING HWO.
EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO SETTLE DOWN LATER THIS EVENING...BUT WITH
THE FRONT NEARBY CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ACTIVITY DURING THE NIGHT. AGAIN LATE NIGHT PATCHY VALLEY FOG AND
MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THE FRONT LOOKS TO RELOAD ON
WEDNESDAY AS IT STARTS TO TAP THE MOISTURE FROM BILL WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY FOR THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THESE STORMS ON WEDNESDAY MAY BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN SLIGHTLY BETTER UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...WILL ALSO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.
AGAIN THE T/TD/WINDS GRIDS WERE STARTED OFF FROM THE SHORTBLEND
GUIDANCE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SUPERBLEND. DID
MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOWS TONIGHT FOR TERRAIN
DISTINCTIONS. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSEST TO THE HIGHER MET
MOS NUMBERS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS KEPT THE REGION PERSISTENTLY
WARMER THAN NORMAL THIS PAST WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO EXERT ITS
INFLUENCE TO SOME EXTENT ON THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS TO
BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE ABLE
TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS THAT WILL
STILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY SHOULD
DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY ONCE THE SUN GOES DOWN...WITH MOST OF THE
AREA BEING RAIN FREE BY 5 OR 6Z THURSDAY. RENEWED ACTIVITY IS THEN
EXPECTED TO FIRE UP DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...ONCE WE GET SOME
DAY TIME HEATING GOING AND A SLUGGISH FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN
PARKED WELL NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER FINALLY BEGINS TO SLIDE
SOUTHWARD. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FROM THURSDAY ONWARD WILL BE HOW
WELL DEFINED THE BOUNDARY IS WHEN IT MOVES INTO OUR AREA. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE...BUT CONSISTENT FRONTAL FORCING
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY COULD BE. THE MODELS DIFFER
GREATLY LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE GFS BEING MUCH WETTER OVERALL
THAN THE ECMWF. IT APPEARS THAT THE ECMWF HAS A DIFFICULT TIME
RESOLVING A CONSISTENT SURFACE TRIGGER...WHILE THE GFS PRODUCES A
MORE WELL DEFINED FRONT AND ALSO HAS ITS FRONT A BIT FURTHER
SOUTHWARD THAT THE ECMWF. DUE TO ALL THIS UNCERTAINTY...DECIDED NOT
TO GO TO HIGH WITH PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH 30 TO 40 POPS ON AVERAGE EACH
DAY...WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. ANOTHER POTENTIAL PLAYER IN PRECIP CHANCES TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE REMNANTS OF TC BILL. THE
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION RECEIVED ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGIONS WILL DEPEND ALOT ON HOW MUCH INFLUENCE BILL IS ABLE
TO HAVE ON THE REGION. THIS WILL BE THE KEY TO WATCH AS WE APPROACH
THE END OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH DAY TIME HIGHS GENERALLY MAXING OUT IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S...WITH BALMY NIGHTLY LOW TEMPERATURES ONLY FALLING TO
AROUND 70.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 735 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
WIND WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST TO GENERALLY
BETWEEN NEAR 10 KTS BY MIDDAY WITH SPOTTY CONVECTION REFIRING
ACROSS THE AREA BY NOON...WITH EARLIER CELLS FOUND IN THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. DUE TO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...INCLUDING
SYM...AS WELL AS JKL AND SJS...APPEAR TO HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE
FOR SEEING CONVECTION DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
MVFR CIG AND VIS CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS...BUT
FOR THE MOST PART VFR WILL HOLD SWAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
345 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STILL HOLDING OVER SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY...THOUGH A COLD FRONT IS MOVING CLOSER TO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH. ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY ONGOING
CONVECTION IS TRACKING WEST TO EAST FROM SOUTHERN INDIANA THROUGH
OHIO. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS MAY BRUSH THE FAR NORTHERN
REACHES OF OUR CWA BY DAWN. OTHERWISE...IT IS A QUIET NIGHT
THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUPPORTING ANOTHER
SMALL TO MODERATE RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE ON THE
ORDER OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES. SPECIFICALLY THE READINGS VARIED FROM
THE MID 70S TO THE MID 60S...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS
GENERALLY FROM 65 TO 70 DEGREES. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...ANY
VALLEY FOG OUT THERE IS NOT SHOWING UP IN THE OBS OR SEEN ON AREA
WEB CAMS.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT THE PERSISTENT
SOUTHEAST RIDGE WEAKENING A BIT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TOPPING IT AND RIDING EASTWARD ON ITS NORTHERN FRINGE.
THIS MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL BRUSH THROUGH NORTHERN KENTUCKY
TODAY...DOWNSTREAM OF LANDFALLING TROPICAL STORM BILL OVER THE
WESTERN GULF. TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THIS WILL WORK INTO THE
SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY LATER IN THE WEEK...THOUGH THERE IS CURRENTLY
HIGH PW AIR...APPROACHING TWO INCHES...JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA.
GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
SOLUTIONS OF THE HRRR AND NAM12 THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...BUT WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS AND INCREASED
COVERAGE THROUGH THE AREA...THOUGH STILL FAVORING THE NORTH. THE
CONVECTION AND CLOUDS THAT RESULTS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS IN THE
NORTH...AND PLACES THAT SEE RAIN...A BIT COOLER THAN THOSE OF
YESTERDAY. THE STORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP TODAY COULD BE
ORGANIZED RESULTING IN A THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY
RAINS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN THE FORTHCOMING HWO.
EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO SETTLE DOWN LATER THIS EVENING...BUT WITH
THE FRONT NEARBY CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ACTIVITY DURING THE NIGHT. AGAIN LATE NIGHT PATCHY VALLEY FOG AND
MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THE FRONT LOOKS TO RELOAD ON
WEDNESDAY AS IT STARTS TO TAP THE MOISTURE FROM BILL WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY FOR THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THESE STORMS ON WEDNESDAY MAY BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN SLIGHTLY BETTER UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...WILL ALSO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.
AGAIN THE T/TD/WINDS GRIDS WERE STARTED OFF FROM THE SHORTBLEND
GUIDANCE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SUPERBLEND. DID
MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOWS TONIGHT FOR TERRAIN
DISTINCTIONS. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSEST TO THE HIGHER MET
MOS NUMBERS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS KEPT THE REGION PERSISTENTLY
WARMER THAN NORMAL THIS PAST WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO EXERT ITS
INFLUENCE TO SOME EXTENT ON THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS TO
BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE ABLE
TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS THAT WILL
STILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY SHOULD
DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY ONCE THE SUN GOES DOWN...WITH MOST OF THE
AREA BEING RAIN FREE BY 5 OR 6Z THURSDAY. RENEWED ACTIVITY IS THEN
EXPECTED TO FIRE UP DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...ONCE WE GET SOME
DAY TIME HEATING GOING AND A SLUGGISH FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN
PARKED WELL NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER FINALLY BEGINS TO SLIDE
SOUTHWARD. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FROM THURSDAY ONWARD WILL BE HOW
WELL DEFINED THE BOUNDARY IS WHEN IT MOVES INTO OUR AREA. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE...BUT CONSISTENT FRONTAL FORCING
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY COULD BE. THE MODELS DIFFER
GREATLY LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE GFS BEING MUCH WETTER OVERALL
THAN THE ECMWF. IT APPEARS THAT THE ECMWF HAS A DIFFICULT TIME
RESOLVING A CONSISTENT SURFACE TRIGGER...WHILE THE GFS PRODUCES A
MORE WELL DEFINED FRONT AND ALSO HAS ITS FRONT A BIT FURTHER
SOUTHWARD THAT THE ECMWF. DUE TO ALL THIS UNCERTAINTY...DECIDED NOT
TO GO TO HIGH WITH PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH 30 TO 40 POPS ON AVERAGE EACH
DAY...WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. ANOTHER POTENTIAL PLAYER IN PRECIP CHANCES TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE REMNANTS OF TC BILL. THE
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION RECEIVED ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGIONS WILL DEPEND ALOT ON HOW MUCH INFLUENCE BILL IS ABLE
TO HAVE ON THE REGION. THIS WILL BE THE KEY TO WATCH AS WE APPROACH
THE END OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH DAY TIME HIGHS GENERALLY MAXING OUT IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S...WITH BALMY NIGHTLY LOW TEMPERATURES ONLY FALLING TO
AROUND 70.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
AFTER A QUIET NIGHT WHERE ANY PATCHY FOG STAYS IN THE VALLEYS AND
AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES...WIND SHOULD INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST TO GENERALLY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS BY MIDDAY
WITH SPOTTY CONVECTION REFIRING AROUND NOON TUESDAY. DUE TO
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING SYM...AS WELL AS JKL AND SJS...APPEAR TO HAVE
THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SEEING CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING HOURS OF TUESDAY. MVFR CIG AND VIS CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS...BUT FOR THE MOST PART VFR WILL
HOLD SWAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
208 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
PER THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR/NAM12 HAVE
DROPPED POPS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
DID ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM IN THE FAR NORTH TOWARD
DAWN. OTHERWISE...JUST TOUCHED UP THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS BASED ON THE
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS AS WELL AS INFLUENCE FROM THE SHORTBLEND
GUIDANCE. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1058 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
THE 0Z NAM AND MOST RECENT HRRR RUN FROM 01Z SUGGEST THE REMAINDER
OF THE OVERNIGHT COULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS
POINT...DO NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO REMOVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE NORTH LATE. OTHERWISE...HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATION.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 830 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
CONVECTION HAS WANED OVER THE PAST HOUR AS WE APPROACH SUNSET. A
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE REGION
STILL IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF A QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE
NORTH OF THE REGION. NEAR TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM12 AS WELL AS
RECENT HRRR RUNS DEVELOP SOME CONVECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN KY. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
ALREADY HAD SOME POPS LATE IN THE NORTH AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED
AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER
THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
CONTINUATION OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS FIRING WITH DAYTIME HEATING IN AN ARC ON THE
NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. DESPITE THE STAGNANT LOOK IN THE
MID LEVELS...A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING BY WELL TO OUR NORTH WILL
FORCE A SUBTLE SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH THE 850 MB JET AXIS INTO OUR
AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS BEEN A GOOD INDICATOR OF
WHERE THE BETTER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE HAS BEEN IN RECENT
DAYS AND ITS SOUTHWARD SHIFT WILL HELP INCREASE OUR ALREADY HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT UP TOWARDS 2 INCHES. THIS SHOULD SPELL
BETTER COVERAGE FOR THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON
TUESDAY COMPARED TO WHAT WE ARE SEEING TODAY. IT WILL ALSO RESULT
IN A SMALL THREAT FOR A SHOWER OR STORM GOING THROUGH TONIGHT IN
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND FOR ALL AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. LAPSE RATES
REMAIN MEAGER SO LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AS THE
PERIOD STARTS. THE CONVECTIVE RING OF FIRE ON ITS PERIMETER IS
EXPECTED TO BE JUST TO OUR NORTH...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE A
LITTLE BIT BETTER SHOT AT PRECIP IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS DEPICT THE CONVECTIVE BELT
SHIFTING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD OVER OUR AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT
ALSO BEING A LITTLE LESS ACTIVE. A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERLIES OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS SHOULD SEND A COLD FRONT TOWARD
OUR REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FALLS BOTH
FAVOR A DECENT SHOT AT SOME THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING IS UNCERTAIN
THOUGH...AND ONLY CHANCE POPS ARE BEING USED AT THIS POINT. THE
PUSH OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE LOOSING ITS
MOMENTUM BY THE TIME THE FRONT REACHES US...SO NO SIGNIFICANT
RELIEF FROM HUMIDITY IS SEEN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
AFTER A QUIET NIGHT WHERE ANY PATCHY FOG STAYS IN THE VALLEYS AND
AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES...WIND SHOULD INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST TO GENERALLY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS BY MIDDAY
WITH SPOTTY CONVECTION REFIRING AROUND NOON TUESDAY. DUE TO
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING SYM...AS WELL AS JKL AND SJS...APPEAR TO HAVE
THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SEEING CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING HOURS OF TUESDAY. MVFR CIG AND VIS CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS...BUT FOR THE MOST PART VFR WILL
HOLD SWAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1202 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN
CONUS/SRN CANADA. UPSTREAM...ONE SHORTWAVE IS EVIDENT OVER NRN MN
WHILE A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROF IS SWINGING SE THRU
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. WAVE OVER NRN MN HAS BEEN AIDING A PERSISTENT
AREA OF SHRA THAT HAS MOVED FROM NW WI EARLY THIS MORNING INTO WRN
UPPER MI THIS AFTN. THE CLOUD COVER OVER WRN UPPER MI HAS KEPT
INSTABILITY FROM DEVELOPING...SO THERE HAS BEEN NO THUNDER YET. VIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER TO THE S AND SW...
AND LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES MLCAPES HAVE INCREASED TO A
FEW HUNDRED J/KG INTO WCNTRL WI WITH THE 100J/KG ISOPLETH NOW NEAR
THE WI/MI BORDER. THAT INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH A WEAK SFC LOW PRES
OVER SRN MN AND TROF EXTENDING NE TOWARD KIWD HAS BECOME THE FOCUS
FOR DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HRS. WELL OFF TO
THE NW...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN SHORTWAVE TROF
EXTENDS FROM HUDSON BAY TO SE SASKATCHEWAN. SFC OBS/CANADIAN RADARS
SHOW SOME -SHRA/SPRINKLES WITHIN THE BAND OF CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING
FRONT. MORE RECENTLY...CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO FIRE ALONG THE
FRONT.
FIRST WAVE OVER NRN MN WILL SHIFT E ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES THIS
EVENING. MODELS HINT THAT ANOTHER SUBTLE WAVE WILL FOLLOW LATE
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE SWINGING SE
THRU NRN ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT THRU EARLY THU AFTN. HAVE LARGELY
UTILIZED RADAR TRENDS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HRS TO PUSH ONGOING SHRA
ASSOCIATED WITH FIRST SHORTWAVE ENE INTO NCNTRL UPPER MI BEFORE
DIMINISHING. NAM AND THE HIGH RES NAM WINDOW HAVE A PRETTY GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS PCPN...SO NAM OUTPUT WAS INCORPORATED AS WELL.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE CONVECTION DEVELOPING TO THE SW NEAR SRN
MN WEAK SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROF THAT EXTENDS TOWARD KIWD. SINCE
THIS CONVECTION IS LARGELY DRIVEN BY DAYTIME INSTABILITY...THIS PCPN
SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH AS IT LIFTS TOWARD THE FCST AREA TONIGHT.
PROBABLY WON`T COMPLETELY DISSIPATE GIVEN SOME CONTINUED FORCING
THRU THE NIGHT. SO...FCST WILL SHOW SCT/NMRS SHRA INTO WRN UPPER MI
DIMINISHING TO SCT WITH TIME EASTWARD. SINCE CLOUD COVER WILL
DOMINATE HEADING TO SUNSET...INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED
HERE...BUT IT STILL WARRANTS A MENTION OF THUNDER WITH BEST CHC FROM
KIWD TOWARD KIMT.
POTENTIAL FOR SCT SHOWERS/PERHAPS A TSTM WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ERN
FCST AREA THU MORNING ALONG JUST AHEAD OF THE FAIRLY STRONG COLD
FRONT PUSHING THRU THE AREA. AS IS THE CASE TODAY IN CANADA...THERE
MAY ALSO BE ISOLD -SHRA FOR A SHORT TIME FOLLOWING FROPA AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THU
AFTN WILL BRING DRIER AIR/CLEARING SKIES. IT WILL BE CHILLY ALONG
LAKE SUPERIOR THU AFTN WITH GRADIENT WIND OFF THE LAKE. LAKESIDE
LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF LONG FETCHES ACROSS THE LAKE WILL LIKELY SEE
AFTN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S/LWR 50S. AT THE HIGH END...MAX TEMPS
OVER FAR SCNTRL UPPER MI SHOULD REACH THE MID 70S. IT WILL ALSO BE A
BREEZY DAY BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E...DUE TO DECENT
PRES RISES/CAA AND 20-30KT WINDS AT 925MB.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WEAK SYSTEMS TO PASS
ACROSS THE AREA EVERY FEW DAYS. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST FOR THE LONG
TERM WILL GENERALLY HAVE AT LEAST SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EACH
DAY...NONE OF THE DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY SO MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY.
AFTER THE WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES BY ON THURSDAY...CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA...ACCOMPAINED BY VERY DRY
AIR WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AT 0.25 INCH THU NIGHT. THIS DRY
AIR COMBINED WITH DECOUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPS TO DROP WELL INTO THE 30S ACROSS MANY INTERIOR LOCATIONS WITH
SOME PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT FROST ADVISORIES
WILL BE NEEDED THU NIGHT BUT WILL LEAVE THIS DECISION TO FUTURE
FORECASTS. HOWEVER...PEOPLE IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR MAY NEED TO PREPARE TO COVER PLANTS WHICH ARE
SUCCEPTIABLE TO THE COLD THURSDAY NIGHT.
SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT DAY ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL. SOME WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY WHICH
COMBINED WITH THE SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH LOCATIONS
CLOSE TO THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE COOLER.
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. LATEST NWP SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE SLIGHTLY
SLOWER...WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...WILL
ELIMINATE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR THE FAR WEST FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THE BEST UPPER
FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL GENERALY REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. AS
SUCH...ANY PRECIPITAITON WILL LIKELY BE TIED TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THERE SEEMS LIKE AT LEAST THE
POSSIBLITY FOR SOME SUNSHINE ALLOWING FOR SOME POCKETS OF
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. IN FACT...THE NAM IS QUITE AGRESSIVE IN
SHOWING 1000+ J/KG MLCAPE VALUES SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST
HALF OF THE UPPER PENINSULA. IN FACT...EVEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
SUGGEST SOME MODEST INSTABILITY OF 500-1000 J/KG. WITH 50 KT MID-
LEVEL FLOW AND SOME DRYING ALOFT...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STRONGER
STORMS IF/WHERE POCKETS OF INSTABILITY DEVELOP. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE ONLY AROUND 6.1 C/KM.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON SATURDAY...WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE WEATHER TO BECOME QUIET AGAIN FOR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...WITH THE UPPER JET OVERHEAD AND
ANOTHER SUBTLE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE W-NW
FLOW...CANNOT RULE OUT A PASSING SHOWER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT.
WITH THE ZONAL W-NW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE EARLY
NEXT WEEK...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL. THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT A BAROCLINC ZONE WILL DEVELOP JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTN INTO MONDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
RAIN CHANCES ESPECAILLY CLOSER TO THE WI/MI BORDER AS IT CREEPS
NORTHWARD. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THIS BOUNDARY WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTH
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THOSE
DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU MORNING AT KIWD. KCMX WILL
HAVE AN UPSLOPE WIND DIRECTION OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHICH WILL CAUSE
LIFR CONDITIONS TO FORM LATE TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING. AT KSAW...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THRU THE AREA THU MORNING...BRINGING A SHIFT TO NW TO N
WINDS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT KCMX AND ESPECIALLY AT KSAW. AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO IWD AND CMX LATE THU
MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 433 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. EACH ONE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS.
AFTER LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT/THU MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY
GUST TO 20-25KT FOR A TIME OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR
THU...ESPECIALLY AT HIGH OBS PLATFORMS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THU
NIGHT/FRI MORNING AS HIGH PRES PASSES OVER THE AREA. AS THE HIGH
DEPARTS AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES...SE TO S WINDS WILL RAMP
UP FRI AFTN THRU SAT MORNING. WINDS MAY GUST TO 15-25KT FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING OVER CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE HIGHEST OBS
PLATFORMS WILL PROBABLY SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT. THE COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA SAT AFTN. SINCE THE HIGH PRES FOLLOWING THE
FRONT WILL BE WEAK...WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...UNDER 20KT FOR LATE SAT THRU SUN. THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL
LINGER INTO MON UNDER A WEAK PRES GRADIENT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...07
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
711 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN
CONUS/SRN CANADA. UPSTREAM...ONE SHORTWAVE IS EVIDENT OVER NRN MN
WHILE A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROF IS SWINGING SE THRU
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. WAVE OVER NRN MN HAS BEEN AIDING A PERSISTENT
AREA OF SHRA THAT HAS MOVED FROM NW WI EARLY THIS MORNING INTO WRN
UPPER MI THIS AFTN. THE CLOUD COVER OVER WRN UPPER MI HAS KEPT
INSTABILITY FROM DEVELOPING...SO THERE HAS BEEN NO THUNDER YET. VIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER TO THE S AND SW...
AND LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES MLCAPES HAVE INCREASED TO A
FEW HUNDRED J/KG INTO WCNTRL WI WITH THE 100J/KG ISOPLETH NOW NEAR
THE WI/MI BORDER. THAT INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH A WEAK SFC LOW PRES
OVER SRN MN AND TROF EXTENDING NE TOWARD KIWD HAS BECOME THE FOCUS
FOR DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HRS. WELL OFF TO
THE NW...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN SHORTWAVE TROF
EXTENDS FROM HUDSON BAY TO SE SASKATCHEWAN. SFC OBS/CANADIAN RADARS
SHOW SOME -SHRA/SPRINKLES WITHIN THE BAND OF CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING
FRONT. MORE RECENTLY...CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO FIRE ALONG THE
FRONT.
FIRST WAVE OVER NRN MN WILL SHIFT E ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES THIS
EVENING. MODELS HINT THAT ANOTHER SUBTLE WAVE WILL FOLLOW LATE
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE SWINGING SE
THRU NRN ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT THRU EARLY THU AFTN. HAVE LARGELY
UTILIZED RADAR TRENDS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HRS TO PUSH ONGOING SHRA
ASSOCIATED WITH FIRST SHORTWAVE ENE INTO NCNTRL UPPER MI BEFORE
DIMINISHING. NAM AND THE HIGH RES NAM WINDOW HAVE A PRETTY GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS PCPN...SO NAM OUTPUT WAS INCORPORATED AS WELL.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE CONVECTION DEVELOPING TO THE SW NEAR SRN
MN WEAK SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROF THAT EXTENDS TOWARD KIWD. SINCE
THIS CONVECTION IS LARGELY DRIVEN BY DAYTIME INSTABILITY...THIS PCPN
SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH AS IT LIFTS TOWARD THE FCST AREA TONIGHT.
PROBABLY WON`T COMPLETELY DISSIPATE GIVEN SOME CONTINUED FORCING
THRU THE NIGHT. SO...FCST WILL SHOW SCT/NMRS SHRA INTO WRN UPPER MI
DIMINISHING TO SCT WITH TIME EASTWARD. SINCE CLOUD COVER WILL
DOMINATE HEADING TO SUNSET...INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED
HERE...BUT IT STILL WARRANTS A MENTION OF THUNDER WITH BEST CHC FROM
KIWD TOWARD KIMT.
POTENTIAL FOR SCT SHOWERS/PERHAPS A TSTM WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ERN
FCST AREA THU MORNING ALONG JUST AHEAD OF THE FAIRLY STRONG COLD
FRONT PUSHING THRU THE AREA. AS IS THE CASE TODAY IN CANADA...THERE
MAY ALSO BE ISOLD -SHRA FOR A SHORT TIME FOLLOWING FROPA AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THU
AFTN WILL BRING DRIER AIR/CLEARING SKIES. IT WILL BE CHILLY ALONG
LAKE SUPERIOR THU AFTN WITH GRADIENT WIND OFF THE LAKE. LAKESIDE
LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF LONG FETCHES ACROSS THE LAKE WILL LIKELY SEE
AFTN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S/LWR 50S. AT THE HIGH END...MAX TEMPS
OVER FAR SCNTRL UPPER MI SHOULD REACH THE MID 70S. IT WILL ALSO BE A
BREEZY DAY BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E...DUE TO DECENT
PRES RISES/CAA AND 20-30KT WINDS AT 925MB.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WEAK SYSTEMS TO PASS
ACROSS THE AREA EVERY FEW DAYS. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST FOR THE LONG
TERM WILL GENERALLY HAVE AT LEAST SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EACH
DAY...NONE OF THE DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY SO MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY.
AFTER THE WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES BY ON THURSDAY...CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA...ACCOMPAINED BY VERY DRY
AIR WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AT 0.25 INCH THU NIGHT. THIS DRY
AIR COMBINED WITH DECOUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPS TO DROP WELL INTO THE 30S ACROSS MANY INTERIOR LOCATIONS WITH
SOME PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT FROST ADVISORIES
WILL BE NEEDED THU NIGHT BUT WILL LEAVE THIS DECISION TO FUTURE
FORECASTS. HOWEVER...PEOPLE IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR MAY NEED TO PREPARE TO COVER PLANTS WHICH ARE
SUCCEPTIABLE TO THE COLD THURSDAY NIGHT.
SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT DAY ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL. SOME WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY WHICH
COMBINED WITH THE SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH LOCATIONS
CLOSE TO THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE COOLER.
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. LATEST NWP SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE SLIGHTLY
SLOWER...WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...WILL
ELIMINATE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR THE FAR WEST FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THE BEST UPPER
FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL GENERALY REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. AS
SUCH...ANY PRECIPITAITON WILL LIKELY BE TIED TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THERE SEEMS LIKE AT LEAST THE
POSSIBLITY FOR SOME SUNSHINE ALLOWING FOR SOME POCKETS OF
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. IN FACT...THE NAM IS QUITE AGRESSIVE IN
SHOWING 1000+ J/KG MLCAPE VALUES SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST
HALF OF THE UPPER PENINSULA. IN FACT...EVEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
SUGGEST SOME MODEST INSTABILITY OF 500-1000 J/KG. WITH 50 KT MID-
LEVEL FLOW AND SOME DRYING ALOFT...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STRONGER
STORMS IF/WHERE POCKETS OF INSTABILITY DEVELOP. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE ONLY AROUND 6.1 C/KM.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON SATURDAY...WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE WEATHER TO BECOME QUIET AGAIN FOR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...WITH THE UPPER JET OVERHEAD AND
ANOTHER SUBTLE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE W-NW
FLOW...CANNOT RULE OUT A PASSING SHOWER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT.
WITH THE ZONAL W-NW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE EARLY
NEXT WEEK...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL. THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT A BAROCLINC ZONE WILL DEVELOP JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTN INTO MONDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
RAIN CHANCES ESPECAILLY CLOSER TO THE WI/MI BORDER AS IT CREEPS
NORTHWARD. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THIS BOUNDARY WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTH
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THOSE
DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 710 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU MORNING AT KIWD. KCMX WILL
KEEP UPSLOPE WIND DIRECTION OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHICH WILL CAUSE
LIFR CONDITIONS THERE INTO THU MORNING. AT KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL INTO THU MORNING. COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THRU THE AREA
THU MORNING...BRINGING A SHIFT TO NW TO N WINDS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
AT KCMX AND ESPECIALLY AT KSAW. MAY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS PERHAPS
IFR AROUND/JUST AFTER FROPA AT KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 433 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. EACH ONE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS.
AFTER LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT/THU MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY
GUST TO 20-25KT FOR A TIME OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR
THU...ESPECIALLY AT HIGH OBS PLATFORMS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THU
NIGHT/FRI MORNING AS HIGH PRES PASSES OVER THE AREA. AS THE HIGH
DEPARTS AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES...SE TO S WINDS WILL RAMP
UP FRI AFTN THRU SAT MORNING. WINDS MAY GUST TO 15-25KT FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING OVER CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE HIGHEST OBS
PLATFORMS WILL PROBABLY SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT. THE COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA SAT AFTN. SINCE THE HIGH PRES FOLLOWING THE
FRONT WILL BE WEAK...WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...UNDER 20KT FOR LATE SAT THRU SUN. THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL
LINGER INTO MON UNDER A WEAK PRES GRADIENT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...07
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
135 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A WNW FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE UPR GRT LKS TO THE S OF UPR TROF CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY.
A DRY...STABLE AIRMASS PER THE 00Z INL ROAB...WHICH SHOWED PWAT NEAR
0.50 INCH /70 PERCENT OF NORMAL/ AND SHARP SUBSIDENCE INVRN NEAR
H775-8...IS MOVING INTO THE UPR LKS. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME SCT-BKN
SC/AC OVER UPR MI EARLY THIS MRNG ASSOCIATED WITH SOME HIER RH JUST
BLO THE INVRN BASE AND THE PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD FNT...BUT
THESE CLDS ARE TENDING TO SLOWLY DISSOLVE UNDER LARGE SCALE DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG SHRTWV RDG AXIS.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...SFC HI PRES IS CENTERED ALONG THE NDAKOTA/CNDN
BORDER. BUT MORE CLDS IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SHRTWV OVER THE NRN
ROCKIES THAT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ZONAL FLOW ARE SPREADING EWD
THRU THE NRN PLAINS UP TO NEAR THE SFC HI PRES CENTER.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON TEMPS TODAY AND ON CLD
TRENDS/NEED FOR POPS TNGT.
TODAY...DNVA/LARGE SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE AND TREND FOR
INCRSG ACYC LLVL FLOW WL RESULT IN A CONTINUED DIMINISHING OF
LINGERING SC/AC OVER UPR MI EARLY THIS MRNG. AS SFC HI PRES BLDS
OVER LK SUP TODAY...EXPECT MOSUNNY SKIES WITH ONLY SOME SCT DIURNAL
CU DVLPG UNDER LINGERING H85 THERMAL TROF/H85 TEMPS 3-4C. SOME HI
CLDS WELL IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS WL ALSO
ARRIVE OVER THE W LATER IN THE DAY. MIXING TO SUBSIDENCE INVRN BASE
NEAR H8 WL RESULT IN HI TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 60S. BUT LLVL NNW FLOW
OFF THE CHILLY WATERS OF LK SUP IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG SFC HI PRES
CENTER MAY HOLD DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE 50S NEAR THE LK...ESPECIALLY E
OF MARQUETTE.
TNGT...MODELS SHOW INCRSG H85-5 RH W-E TNGT IN ADVANCE OF UPSTREAM
SHRTWV MOVING INTO MN BY 12Z WED. BUT SINCE THE SHARPER DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC/MOST IMPRESSIVE H85 THETA E ADVCTN ARE FCST TO REMAIN
TO THE W OF THE CWA WITH LINGERING VERY DRY NEAR SFC AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH SLOWLY EXITING SFC HI PRES CENTER...MANY OF THE
MODELS BRING ACCOMPANYING PCPN NO FARTHER E THAN WRN LK SUP THRU 12Z
WED. WL RETAIN SCHC POPS OVER THE FAR W LATE TNGT TO ACCOUNT FOR
THOSE MODELS THAT CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOME PCPN INTO THAT AREA.
THICKENING CLDS WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL...BUT MINS WL STILL
FALL WELL INTO THE 40S OVER THE E WITHIN LINGERING DRY AIR AND WHERE
THE THICKER CLDS WL ARRIVE LATEST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 456 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL KEEP THE OFF AND ON SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SHOWERS WILL SLIDE INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY...AND SLOWLY SHIFT INTO
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT POPS MAINLY IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE RANGE FOR ALL BUT FAR W ZONES. NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT
GETTING ANYTHING OVER A FEW HUNDREDTHS WITH THIS ONE.
DRIER AIR WILL AGAIN BUILD IN THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA IN THE FORM OF HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE THE GFS IS EXTREMELY DRY...THE
MAJORITY OF THE SOLUTIONS DO SHOW AT LEAST SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY. THE MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN THE CLOUDY NAM
AND CLEAR GFS LOOKS TO BE THE ECMWF...AND OUR ONGOING FCST.
TANKED LOWS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING BY 5F OR SO...WITH FEW
IF ANY CLOUDS...PW VALUES RANGING FROM 0.25 OVER FAR N WI /NAM
SOLUTION/ TO AROUND 0.6IN /HIGH END OF GFS/...AND NEARLY CALM WINDS
UNDER THE SFC HIGH. KEPT IWD A BIT WARMER THAN MOST OF THE COOL
GUIDANCE THROUGH...GIVEN THE RETURN FLOW AS THE HIGH SLOWLY EXITS E
FRIDAY.
EXPECT A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS...TO
RETURN LATER FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE NOW COME IN DRY
FOR SUNDAY. THIS GOES AGAINST THE 30 PERCENT POPS THAT WE WOULD HAVE
BLENDED TO...SO HAVE DONE SOME EDITING TO GO A LITTLE DRIER. MAY
NEED TO TAKE POPS OUT COMPLETELY DEPENDING ON THE NEXT SET OF MODEL
RUNS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
A SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW ON WED...POSSIBLY BRINGING
SHOWERS TO KIWD THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS MAY ALSO MOVE
INTO KCMX NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
ALTHOUGH A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THRU THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND CAUSE VARYING WINDS...A
RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND HI STABILITY OVER THE CHILLY LAKE
WATERS WILL HOLD WINDS UNDER 20KTS THRU THE WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
730 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A WNW FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE UPR GRT LKS TO THE S OF UPR TROF CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY.
A DRY...STABLE AIRMASS PER THE 00Z INL ROAB...WHICH SHOWED PWAT NEAR
0.50 INCH /70 PERCENT OF NORMAL/ AND SHARP SUBSIDENCE INVRN NEAR
H775-8...IS MOVING INTO THE UPR LKS. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME SCT-BKN
SC/AC OVER UPR MI EARLY THIS MRNG ASSOCIATED WITH SOME HIER RH JUST
BLO THE INVRN BASE AND THE PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD FNT...BUT
THESE CLDS ARE TENDING TO SLOWLY DISSOLVE UNDER LARGE SCALE DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG SHRTWV RDG AXIS.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...SFC HI PRES IS CENTERED ALONG THE NDAKOTA/CNDN
BORDER. BUT MORE CLDS IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SHRTWV OVER THE NRN
ROCKIES THAT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ZONAL FLOW ARE SPREADING EWD
THRU THE NRN PLAINS UP TO NEAR THE SFC HI PRES CENTER.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON TEMPS TODAY AND ON CLD
TRENDS/NEED FOR POPS TNGT.
TODAY...DNVA/LARGE SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE AND TREND FOR
INCRSG ACYC LLVL FLOW WL RESULT IN A CONTINUED DIMINISHING OF
LINGERING SC/AC OVER UPR MI EARLY THIS MRNG. AS SFC HI PRES BLDS
OVER LK SUP TODAY...EXPECT MOSUNNY SKIES WITH ONLY SOME SCT DIURNAL
CU DVLPG UNDER LINGERING H85 THERMAL TROF/H85 TEMPS 3-4C. SOME HI
CLDS WELL IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS WL ALSO
ARRIVE OVER THE W LATER IN THE DAY. MIXING TO SUBSIDENCE INVRN BASE
NEAR H8 WL RESULT IN HI TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 60S. BUT LLVL NNW FLOW
OFF THE CHILLY WATERS OF LK SUP IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG SFC HI PRES
CENTER MAY HOLD DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE 50S NEAR THE LK...ESPECIALLY E
OF MARQUETTE.
TNGT...MODELS SHOW INCRSG H85-5 RH W-E TNGT IN ADVANCE OF UPSTREAM
SHRTWV MOVING INTO MN BY 12Z WED. BUT SINCE THE SHARPER DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC/MOST IMPRESSIVE H85 THETA E ADVCTN ARE FCST TO REMAIN
TO THE W OF THE CWA WITH LINGERING VERY DRY NEAR SFC AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH SLOWLY EXITING SFC HI PRES CENTER...MANY OF THE
MODELS BRING ACCOMPANYING PCPN NO FARTHER E THAN WRN LK SUP THRU 12Z
WED. WL RETAIN SCHC POPS OVER THE FAR W LATE TNGT TO ACCOUNT FOR
THOSE MODELS THAT CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOME PCPN INTO THAT AREA.
THICKENING CLDS WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL...BUT MINS WL STILL
FALL WELL INTO THE 40S OVER THE E WITHIN LINGERING DRY AIR AND WHERE
THE THICKER CLDS WL ARRIVE LATEST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 456 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL KEEP THE OFF AND ON SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SHOWERS WILL SLIDE INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY...AND SLOWLY SHIFT INTO
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT POPS MAINLY IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE RANGE FOR ALL BUT FAR W ZONES. NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT
GETTING ANYTHING OVER A FEW HUNDREDTHS WITH THIS ONE.
DRIER AIR WILL AGAIN BUILD IN THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA IN THE FORM OF HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE THE GFS IS EXTREMELY DRY...THE
MAJORITY OF THE SOLUTIONS DO SHOW AT LEAST SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY. THE MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN THE CLOUDY NAM
AND CLEAR GFS LOOKS TO BE THE ECMWF...AND OUR ONGOING FCST.
TANKED LOWS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING BY 5F OR SO...WITH FEW
IF ANY CLOUDS...PW VALUES RANGING FROM 0.25 OVER FAR N WI /NAM
SOLUTION/ TO AROUND 0.6IN /HIGH END OF GFS/...AND NEARLY CALM WINDS
UNDER THE SFC HIGH. KEPT IWD A BIT WARMER THAN MOST OF THE COOL
GUIDANCE THROUGH...GIVEN THE RETURN FLOW AS THE HIGH SLOWLY EXITS E
FRIDAY.
EXPECT A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS...TO
RETURN LATER FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE NOW COME IN DRY
FOR SUNDAY. THIS GOES AGAINST THE 30 PERCENT POPS THAT WE WOULD HAVE
BLENDED TO...SO HAVE DONE SOME EDITING TO GO A LITTLE DRIER. MAY
NEED TO TAKE POPS OUT COMPLETELY DEPENDING ON THE NEXT SET OF MODEL
RUNS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 729 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
HI PRES BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY WL BRING VFR
CONDITIONS TO ALL 3 TAF SITES. SOME HI/MID CLDS WL ARRIVE TNGT...
BUT LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR WL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS EVEN IF A
-SHRA DEVELOPS AT IWD LATE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
ALTHOUGH A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THRU THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND CAUSE VARYING WINDS...A
RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND HI STABILITY OVER THE CHILLY LAKE
WATERS WILL HOLD WINDS UNDER 20KTS THRU THE WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
456 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A WNW FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE UPR GRT LKS TO THE S OF UPR TROF CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY.
A DRY...STABLE AIRMASS PER THE 00Z INL ROAB...WHICH SHOWED PWAT NEAR
0.50 INCH /70 PERCENT OF NORMAL/ AND SHARP SUBSIDENCE INVRN NEAR
H775-8...IS MOVING INTO THE UPR LKS. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME SCT-BKN
SC/AC OVER UPR MI EARLY THIS MRNG ASSOCIATED WITH SOME HIER RH JUST
BLO THE INVRN BASE AND THE PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD FNT...BUT
THESE CLDS ARE TENDING TO SLOWLY DISSOLVE UNDER LARGE SCALE DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG SHRTWV RDG AXIS.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...SFC HI PRES IS CENTERED ALONG THE NDAKOTA/CNDN
BORDER. BUT MORE CLDS IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SHRTWV OVER THE NRN
ROCKIES THAT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ZONAL FLOW ARE SPREADING EWD
THRU THE NRN PLAINS UP TO NEAR THE SFC HI PRES CENTER.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON TEMPS TODAY AND ON CLD
TRENDS/NEED FOR POPS TNGT.
TODAY...DNVA/LARGE SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE AND TREND FOR
INCRSG ACYC LLVL FLOW WL RESULT IN A CONTINUED DIMINISHING OF
LINGERING SC/AC OVER UPR MI EARLY THIS MRNG. AS SFC HI PRES BLDS
OVER LK SUP TODAY...EXPECT MOSUNNY SKIES WITH ONLY SOME SCT DIURNAL
CU DVLPG UNDER LINGERING H85 THERMAL TROF/H85 TEMPS 3-4C. SOME HI
CLDS WELL IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS WL ALSO
ARRIVE OVER THE W LATER IN THE DAY. MIXING TO SUBSIDENCE INVRN BASE
NEAR H8 WL RESULT IN HI TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 60S. BUT LLVL NNW FLOW
OFF THE CHILLY WATERS OF LK SUP IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG SFC HI PRES
CENTER MAY HOLD DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE 50S NEAR THE LK...ESPECIALLY E
OF MARQUETTE.
TNGT...MODELS SHOW INCRSG H85-5 RH W-E TNGT IN ADVANCE OF UPSTREAM
SHRTWV MOVING INTO MN BY 12Z WED. BUT SINCE THE SHARPER DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC/MOST IMPRESSIVE H85 THETA E ADVCTN ARE FCST TO REMAIN
TO THE W OF THE CWA WITH LINGERING VERY DRY NEAR SFC AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH SLOWLY EXITING SFC HI PRES CENTER...MANY OF THE
MODELS BRING ACCOMPANYING PCPN NO FARTHER E THAN WRN LK SUP THRU 12Z
WED. WL RETAIN SCHC POPS OVER THE FAR W LATE TNGT TO ACCOUNT FOR
THOSE MODELS THAT CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOME PCPN INTO THAT AREA.
THICKENING CLDS WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL...BUT MINS WL STILL
FALL WELL INTO THE 40S OVER THE E WITHIN LINGERING DRY AIR AND WHERE
THE THICKER CLDS WL ARRIVE LATEST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 456 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL KEEP THE OFF AND ON SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SHOWERS WILL SLIDE INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY...AND SLOWLY SHIFT INTO
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT POPS MAINLY IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE RANGE FOR ALL BUT FAR W ZONES. NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT
GETTING ANYTHING OVER A FEW HUNDREDTHS WITH THIS ONE.
DRIER AIR WILL AGAIN BUILD IN THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA IN THE FORM OF HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE THE GFS IS EXTREMELY DRY...THE
MAJORITY OF THE SOLUTIONS DO SHOW AT LEAST SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY. THE MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN THE CLOUDY NAM
AND CLEAR GFS LOOKS TO BE THE ECMWF...AND OUR ONGOING FCST.
TANKED LOWS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING BY 5F OR SO...WITH FEW
IF ANY CLOUDS...PW VALUES RANGING FROM 0.25 OVER FAR N WI /NAM
SOLUTION/ TO AROUND 0.6IN /HIGH END OF GFS/...AND NEARLY CALM WINDS
UNDER THE SFC HIGH. KEPT IWD A BIT WARMER THAN MOST OF THE COOL
GUIDANCE THROUGH...GIVEN THE RETURN FLOW AS THE HIGH SLOWLY EXITS E
FRIDAY.
EXPECT A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS...TO
RETURN LATER FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE NOW COME IN DRY
FOR SUNDAY. THIS GOES AGAINST THE 30 PERCENT POPS THAT WE WOULD HAVE
BLENDED TO...SO HAVE DONE SOME EDITING TO GO A LITTLE DRIER. MAY
NEED TO TAKE POPS OUT COMPLETELY DEPENDING ON THE NEXT SET OF MODEL
RUNS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL BRING VFR
CONDITIONS TO KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
ALTHOUGH A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THRU THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND CAUSE VARYING WINDS...A
RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND HI STABILITY OVER THE CHILLY LAKE
WATERS WILL HOLD WINDS UNDER 20KTS THRU THE WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
346 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A WNW FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE UPR GRT LKS TO THE S OF UPR TROF CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY.
A DRY...STABLE AIRMASS PER THE 00Z INL ROAB...WHICH SHOWED PWAT NEAR
0.50 INCH /70 PERCENT OF NORMAL/ AND SHARP SUBSIDENCE INVRN NEAR
H775-8...IS MOVING INTO THE UPR LKS. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME SCT-BKN
SC/AC OVER UPR MI EARLY THIS MRNG ASSOCIATED WITH SOME HIER RH JUST
BLO THE INVRN BASE AND THE PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD FNT...BUT
THESE CLDS ARE TENDING TO SLOWLY DISSOLVE UNDER LARGE SCALE DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG SHRTWV RDG AXIS.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...SFC HI PRES IS CENTERED ALONG THE NDAKOTA/CNDN
BORDER. BUT MORE CLDS IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SHRTWV OVER THE NRN
ROCKIES THAT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ZONAL FLOW ARE SPREADING EWD
THRU THE NRN PLAINS UP TO NEAR THE SFC HI PRES CENTER.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON TEMPS TODAY AND ON CLD
TRENDS/NEED FOR POPS TNGT.
TODAY...DNVA/LARGE SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE AND TREND FOR
INCRSG ACYC LLVL FLOW WL RESULT IN A CONTINUED DIMINISHING OF
LINGERING SC/AC OVER UPR MI EARLY THIS MRNG. AS SFC HI PRES BLDS
OVER LK SUP TODAY...EXPECT MOSUNNY SKIES WITH ONLY SOME SCT DIURNAL
CU DVLPG UNDER LINGERING H85 THERMAL TROF/H85 TEMPS 3-4C. SOME HI
CLDS WELL IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS WL ALSO
ARRIVE OVER THE W LATER IN THE DAY. MIXING TO SUBSIDENCE INVRN BASE
NEAR H8 WL RESULT IN HI TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 60S. BUT LLVL NNW FLOW
OFF THE CHILLY WATERS OF LK SUP IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG SFC HI PRES
CENTER MAY HOLD DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE 50S NEAR THE LK...ESPECIALLY E
OF MARQUETTE.
TNGT...MODELS SHOW INCRSG H85-5 RH W-E TNGT IN ADVANCE OF UPSTREAM
SHRTWV MOVING INTO MN BY 12Z WED. BUT SINCE THE SHARPER DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC/MOST IMPRESSIVE H85 THETA E ADVCTN ARE FCST TO REMAIN
TO THE W OF THE CWA WITH LINGERING VERY DRY NEAR SFC AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH SLOWLY EXITING SFC HI PRES CENTER...MANY OF THE
MODELS BRING ACCOMPANYING PCPN NO FARTHER E THAN WRN LK SUP THRU 12Z
WED. WL RETAIN SCHC POPS OVER THE FAR W LATE TNGT TO ACCOUNT FOR
THOSE MODELS THAT CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOME PCPN INTO THAT AREA.
THICKENING CLDS WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL...BUT MINS WL STILL
FALL WELL INTO THE 40S OVER THE E WITHIN LINGERING DRY AIR AND WHERE
THE THICKER CLDS WL ARRIVE LATEST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD...LEADING TO SEVERAL SHORTWAVES PUSHING EAST ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WHILE THE
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON GENERAL IDEA ON THE
TIMING/LOCATION OF THE SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA...CONFIDENCE ISN/T HIGH ENOUGH TO REALLY PIN DOWN THE FINER
DETAILS AS SUBTLE VARIATIONS CAN GREATLY AFFECT THE OVERALL
FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DEPARTING THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A
THE FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES APPROACH THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING OVER THE U.P. THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT. AS THAT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA...SHOULD SEE
SOME RAIN SHOWERS PUSHING EAST IN THE WESTERN U.P. TIED TO THE
850-700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF THE WAVE. WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY SPREAD CHANCE POPS EAST INTO THE WESTERN CWA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE REST OF
THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODEL MUCAPE VALUES SHOW
LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER...ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN INCREASE IN THE
700-500MB LAPSE RATES (ONLY TO 6.5C/KM) LATER IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY
BUT BELIEVE THAT WILL BE LARGELY AFTER THE MAIN PRECIPITATION.
THUS...DECIDED TO PULL THE THUNDER CHANCES FROM ALL BUT THE SOUTH
CENTRAL WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES.
THE AREA WILL SEE A BRIEF DRY PERIOD OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THE
FIRST PART OF THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE REST OF THE DAY THURSDAY.
MOISTURE IS PRETTY LIMITED WITH THE FRONT AND THE BEST FORCING
SHIFTS EAST THROUGH ONTARIO...SO CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO GO WITH
ANYTHING MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS IT MOVES THROUGH. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
WILL SPREAD CHANCE POPS INTO THE AREA WITH THIS WAVE AND WILL NEED
TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW IN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
FRIDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A SECONDARY WAVE ARRIVING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS WAVE WILL STRENGTHEN THE LOW AND LIKELY DEVELOP A
WARM FRONT EASTWARD THROUGH WISCONSIN. THAT SHOULD BE THE FOCUS OF
MOST OF THE CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...KEEPING IT
PREDOMINATELY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT STILL THINK WE WILL
SEE SOME SHOWERS ON THE NORTH END AND WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR
THAT PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER...AS
THE AREA IS ON THE GRADIENT OF THE BETTER INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH.
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO WESTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY AND THEN INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION FOR SUNDAY. THAT WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN
AND MAYBE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA. THE WAVE WILL DEPART
SUNDAY NIGHT AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ARRIVING BEHIND THE WAVE
SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL BRING VFR
CONDITIONS TO KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
ALTHOUGH A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THRU THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND CAUSE VARYING WINDS...A
RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND HI STABILITY OVER THE CHILLY LAKE
WATERS WILL HOLD WINDS UNDER 20KTS THRU THE WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
1236 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
AT 330 AM...IT WAS CLEAR ACROSS THE CWA. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WERE
SPREADING IN FROM THE DAKOTAS...REACHING NW AND WC MN. TEMPS
RANGED FROM THE MID 30S IN THE NORTH TO 60 AT SAXON HARBOR. MOST
LOCATIONS WERE IN THE 30S NORTH AND 40S SOUTH WITH LIGHT WINDS.
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE EARLY TODAY...TO LOW PRESSURE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING IN A WETTER DIRECTION FOR
THE MOST PART...AND WE HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THE MOST PART.
TODAY SHOULD START OUT CLEAR AND COOL ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE IN THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE EASTWARD AS THE DAY WEARS ON.
SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY HIGH
AND MID CLOUDS. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE BRAINERD
LAKES REGION FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRENT MODEL
TRENDS. IN FACT...THE 06Z RAP SHOWS PRECIPITATION REACHING KDLH BY
00Z THIS EVENING. THE 07Z HRRR ONLY GOES THROUGH 22Z BUT HAS
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA AT THAT TIME. THE HOPWRF
IS A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH SOME OF THEIR MEMBERS BUT GENERALLY
HAS PRECIPITATION EXPANDING INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.
GIVEN THE TRENDS...WILL HAVE HIGH POPS IN THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA
LATER TODAY. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT TRICKIER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE
PAST FEW DAYS. WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WILL LIKELY SEE A COOL DOWN AFTER REACHING
DAYTIME MAXES...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST. AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
WILL ALSO SEE A COOL DOWN AS A LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPS THIS AFTN.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AND
WE HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE IN THE SOUTH.
HAVE STAYED WITH MAINLY CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTH AND IT MAY
ACTUALLY REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE BORDER REGION. QPF AMOUNTS
OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE HALF INCH RANGE IN THE
BRAINERD LAKES REGION...WITH A QUARTER INCH FURTHER EAST INTO THE
TWIN PORTS AND THE UPPER SAINT CROIX RIVER VALLEY. LESSER AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED NORTH AND EAST. COULD BE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTH LATER TONIGHT.
WEDNESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A WET DAY FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON...SPECIFICALLY IN THE
NORTH AND WEST. THE 06Z NAM HAS STARTED TRENDING IN FAVOR OF THE
GFS...AND HAS A HIGHER AREA OF QPF FROM THE HEAD OF THE LAKES INTO
NEIGHBORING AREAS OF NW WI. AMOUNTS WILL BE VARIABLE BUT WE COULD
SEE SOME BASIN AVERAGE AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE POPS ALIGNED WITH FROPA. A
SECOND...WEAKER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKS INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE
AREA BY 06Z THURSDAY AND HAVE SOME POPS HERE AS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN MODELS. THE NAM HAS A BIT OF QPF ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
AFTER 06Z...THE GFS IS DRY WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE ROBUST WITH ITS
QPF. LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE NAM WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS/POPS ALONG
THE BORDER. THE SAME GOES FOR THE FAR SE CORNER OF THE AREA WHERE
SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT. ON
THURSDAY...THE NAM/ECMWF HAVE A LITTLE BIT OF QPF WITH ANOTHER
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION. THE GFS/GEM ARE
DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD. USED A MODEL BLEND WHICH
RESULTED IN A DRY FORECAST. THE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT SETTING UP A WAA/RETURN FLOW LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN ON FRIDAY AS THE MODELS
ARE INDICATING A SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN IN WESTERN SD. A ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT FEATURES A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE CRUISING THROUGH MN BY 00Z
SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...DRY AIR LINGERS OVER NW WI. DIFFERENCES IN
THE QPF FIELD SUGGEST LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHERE AND WHEN
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND HOW THEY WILL AFFECT THE AREA. USED
BLENDED POPS AS A RESULT. LARGE DIFFERENCES ABOUND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
AN INVERTED TROF MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SFC LOW SOMEWHERE
IN SD OR NEBRASKA. AS SUCH...THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SET UP WILL
DETERMINE WHERE THUNDERSTORMS INITIATE. AT THE MOMENT...HAVE
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH IS
A COMPROMISE. THIS SFC TROF MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH
MORE THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA. LOWER POPS TO THE WEST. UNCERTAINTY SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH LINGERING RAIN CHANCES AS A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS. THE UNSTABLE
PATTERN PERSISTS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH CONTINUING OPPORTUNITIES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SRN MINNESOTA TONIGHT AND
SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION BEGINNING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AROUND BRD...AND ACROSS HIB DLH AND HYR
TONIGHT. INL SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. VFR CIGS
TODAY WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR TONIGHT AND WED MORNING. COULD
SEE PERIODS OF IFR VSBYS IN -RA/BR THROUGH MID WED MORNING. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE E/SE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 68 49 64 48 / 10 70 60 20
INL 70 48 70 48 / 0 20 20 20
BRD 64 51 68 52 / 60 90 60 10
HYR 72 51 67 51 / 10 70 70 40
ASX 67 48 64 49 / 0 60 60 40
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...TENTINGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
638 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
AT 330 AM...IT WAS CLEAR ACROSS THE CWA. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WERE
SPREADING IN FROM THE DAKOTAS...REACHING NW AND WC MN. TEMPS
RANGED FROM THE MID 30S IN THE NORTH TO 60 AT SAXON HARBOR. MOST
LOCATIONS WERE IN THE 30S NORTH AND 40S SOUTH WITH LIGHT WINDS.
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE EARLY TODAY...TO LOW PRESSURE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING IN A WETTER DIRECTION FOR
THE MOST PART...AND WE HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THE MOST PART.
TODAY SHOULD START OUT CLEAR AND COOL ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE IN THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE EASTWARD AS THE DAY WEARS ON.
SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY HIGH
AND MID CLOUDS. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE BRAINERD
LAKES REGION FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRENT MODEL
TRENDS. IN FACT...THE 06Z RAP SHOWS PRECIPITATION REACHING KDLH BY
00Z THIS EVENING. THE 07Z HRRR ONLY GOES THROUGH 22Z BUT HAS
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA AT THAT TIME. THE HOPWRF
IS A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH SOME OF THEIR MEMBERS BUT GENERALLY
HAS PRECIPITATION EXPANDING INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.
GIVEN THE TRENDS...WILL HAVE HIGH POPS IN THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA
LATER TODAY. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT TRICKIER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE
PAST FEW DAYS. WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WILL LIKELY SEE A COOL DOWN AFTER REACHING
DAYTIME MAXES...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST. AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
WILL ALSO SEE A COOL DOWN AS A LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPS THIS AFTN.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AND
WE HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE IN THE SOUTH.
HAVE STAYED WITH MAINLY CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTH AND IT MAY
ACTUALLY REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE BORDER REGION. QPF AMOUNTS
OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE HALF INCH RANGE IN THE
BRAINERD LAKES REGION...WITH A QUARTER INCH FURTHER EAST INTO THE
TWIN PORTS AND THE UPPER SAINT CROIX RIVER VALLEY. LESSER AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED NORTH AND EAST. COULD BE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTH LATER TONIGHT.
WEDNESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A WET DAY FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON...SPECIFICALLY IN THE
NORTH AND WEST. THE 06Z NAM HAS STARTED TRENDING IN FAVOR OF THE
GFS...AND HAS A HIGHER AREA OF QPF FROM THE HEAD OF THE LAKES INTO
NEIGHBORING AREAS OF NW WI. AMOUNTS WILL BE VARIABLE BUT WE COULD
SEE SOME BASIN AVERAGE AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE POPS ALIGNED WITH FROPA. A
SECOND...WEAKER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKS INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE
AREA BY 06Z THURSDAY AND HAVE SOME POPS HERE AS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN MODELS. THE NAM HAS A BIT OF QPF ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
AFTER 06Z...THE GFS IS DRY WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE ROBUST WITH ITS
QPF. LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE NAM WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS/POPS ALONG
THE BORDER. THE SAME GOES FOR THE FAR SE CORNER OF THE AREA WHERE
SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT. ON
THURSDAY...THE NAM/ECMWF HAVE A LITTLE BIT OF QPF WITH ANOTHER
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION. THE GFS/GEM ARE
DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD. USED A MODEL BLEND WHICH
RESULTED IN A DRY FORECAST. THE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT SETTING UP A WAA/RETURN FLOW LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN ON FRIDAY AS THE MODELS
ARE INDICATING A SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN IN WESTERN SD. A ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT FEATURES A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE CRUISING THROUGH MN BY 00Z
SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...DRY AIR LINGERS OVER NW WI. DIFFERENCES IN
THE QPF FIELD SUGGEST LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHERE AND WHEN
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND HOW THEY WILL AFFECT THE AREA. USED
BLENDED POPS AS A RESULT. LARGE DIFFERENCES ABOUND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
AN INVERTED TROF MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SFC LOW SOMEWHERE
IN SD OR NEBRASKA. AS SUCH...THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SET UP WILL
DETERMINE WHERE THUNDERSTORMS INITIATE. AT THE MOMENT...HAVE
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH IS
A COMPROMISE. THIS SFC TROF MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH
MORE THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA. LOWER POPS TO THE WEST. UNCERTAINTY SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH LINGERING RAIN CHANCES AS A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS. THE UNSTABLE
PATTERN PERSISTS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH CONTINUING OPPORTUNITIES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
VFR AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT IS FORECAST TO BRING
LIGHT RAIN BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. THE ONLY VSBY RESTRICTION WILL BE
AT BRD WHERE MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED BY 03Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 68 49 64 48 / 10 70 60 20
INL 70 48 70 48 / 0 20 20 20
BRD 64 51 68 52 / 60 90 60 10
HYR 72 51 67 51 / 10 70 70 40
ASX 67 48 64 49 / 0 60 60 40
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GSF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
352 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
AT 330 AM...IT WAS CLEAR ACROSS THE CWA. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WERE
SPREADING IN FROM THE DAKOTAS...REACHING NW AND WC MN. TEMPS
RANGED FROM THE MID 30S IN THE NORTH TO 60 AT SAXON HARBOR. MOST
LOCATIONS WERE IN THE 30S NORTH AND 40S SOUTH WITH LIGHT WINDS.
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE EARLY TODAY...TO LOW PRESSURE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING IN A WETTER DIRECTION FOR
THE MOST PART...AND WE HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THE MOST PART.
TODAY SHOULD START OUT CLEAR AND COOL ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE IN THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE EASTWARD AS THE DAY WEARS ON.
SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY HIGH
AND MID CLOUDS. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE BRAINERD
LAKES REGION FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRENT MODEL
TRENDS. IN FACT...THE 06Z RAP SHOWS PRECIPITATION REACHING KDLH BY
00Z THIS EVENING. THE 07Z HRRR ONLY GOES THROUGH 22Z BUT HAS
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA AT THAT TIME. THE HOPWRF
IS A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH SOME OF THEIR MEMBERS BUT GENERALLY
HAS PRECIPITATION EXPANDING INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.
GIVEN THE TRENDS...WILL HAVE HIGH POPS IN THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA
LATER TODAY. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT TRICKIER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE
PAST FEW DAYS. WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WILL LIKELY SEE A COOL DOWN AFTER REACHING
DAYTIME MAXES...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST. AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
WILL ALSO SEE A COOL DOWN AS A LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPS THIS AFTN.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AND
WE HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE IN THE SOUTH.
HAVE STAYED WITH MAINLY CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTH AND IT MAY
ACTUALLY REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE BORDER REGION. QPF AMOUNTS
OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE HALF INCH RANGE IN THE
BRAINERD LAKES REGION...WITH A QUARTER INCH FURTHER EAST INTO THE
TWIN PORTS AND THE UPPER SAINT CROIX RIVER VALLEY. LESSER AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED NORTH AND EAST. COULD BE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTH LATER TONIGHT.
WEDNESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A WET DAY FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON...SPECIFICALLY IN THE
NORTH AND WEST. THE 06Z NAM HAS STARTED TRENDING IN FAVOR OF THE
GFS...AND HAS A HIGHER AREA OF QPF FROM THE HEAD OF THE LAKES INTO
NEIGHBORING AREAS OF NW WI. AMOUNTS WILL BE VARIABLE BUT WE COULD
SEE SOME BASIN AVERAGE AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE POPS ALIGNED WITH FROPA. A
SECOND...WEAKER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKS INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE
AREA BY 06Z THURSDAY AND HAVE SOME POPS HERE AS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN MODELS. THE NAM HAS A BIT OF QPF ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
AFTER 06Z...THE GFS IS DRY WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE ROBUST WITH ITS
QPF. LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE NAM WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS/POPS ALONG
THE BORDER. THE SAME GOES FOR THE FAR SE CORNER OF THE AREA WHERE
SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT. ON
THURSDAY...THE NAM/ECMWF HAVE A LITTLE BIT OF QPF WITH ANOTHER
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION. THE GFS/GEM ARE
DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD. USED A MODEL BLEND WHICH
RESULTED IN A DRY FORECAST. THE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT SETTING UP A WAA/RETURN FLOW LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN ON FRIDAY AS THE MODELS
ARE INDICATING A SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN IN WESTERN SD. A ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT FEATURES A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE CRUISING THROUGH MN BY 00Z
SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...DRY AIR LINGERS OVER NW WI. DIFFERENCES IN
THE QPF FIELD SUGGEST LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHERE AND WHEN
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND HOW THEY WILL AFFECT THE AREA. USED
BLENDED POPS AS A RESULT. LARGE DIFFERENCES ABOUND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
AN INVERTED TROF MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SFC LOW SOMEWHERE
IN SD OR NEBRASKA. AS SUCH...THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SET UP WILL
DETERMINE WHERE THUNDERSTORMS INITIATE. AT THE MOMENT...HAVE
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH IS
A COMPROMISE. THIS SFC TROF MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH
MORE THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA. LOWER POPS TO THE WEST. UNCERTAINTY SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH LINGERING RAIN CHANCES AS A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS. THE UNSTABLE
PATTERN PERSISTS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH CONTINUING OPPORTUNITIES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS FROM 5-8K FT WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST LATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. VFR
CEILINGS WILL MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN THAT MOVES IN AS WELL...AT THIS
TIME WE LIMITED THE MENTION TO KBRD. CAPE VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN
LIMITED ENOUGH FOR MAINLY SHOWERS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 68 49 64 48 / 10 70 60 20
INL 70 48 70 48 / 0 20 20 20
BRD 64 51 68 52 / 60 90 60 10
HYR 72 51 67 51 / 10 70 70 40
ASX 67 48 64 49 / 0 60 60 40
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1221 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
THROUGH THIS EVENING...BREEZY NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
A PASSING COLD FRONT. SCATTERED/BROKEN CUMULUS WILL SPREAD THROUGH
NE MINNESOTA...AND THERE COULD BE ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN FORECAST AREA. ADDED THE SHOWERS AS
SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR AND HOPWRF HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE.
LATER TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND THE
DAKOTA WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT INTO MINNESOTA. THERE SHOULD BE
CLEARING OVERNIGHT...AND THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BECOME VERY LIGHT.
THIS WILL PROMOTE RADIATIONAL COOLING...SO LEANED ON THE COOLER
MODEL GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES. LOWS WILL LIKELY
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH THE COLDEST READINGS
ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. MIGHT NEED TO LOWER THE FORECAST EVEN
MORE.
TUESDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN THE DAY OVER
CENTRAL/NORTHERN MINNESOTA...AND IT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST
THROUGH THE DAY. SUNNY SKIES WILL GREET THE NORTHLAND AT SUNRISE
AND THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT THERE SHOULD BE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER FROM THE WEST AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.
SHOWERS COULD SPREAD INTO THE NORTHLAND FROM THE WEST...BEGINNING
IN THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION...LATE IN THE DAY. MOST MODEL
GUIDANCE PRIMARILY HOLDS OFF PCPN UNTIL THE EVENING...AFTER 00Z.
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WED MORNING...BRINGING
RAIN SHOWERS TO A GOOD PORTION OF THE NORTHLAND. AT THIS TIME THE
BULK OF THE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH. A
WEDGE OF DRY AIR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SIT OVER THE NRN GREAT
LAKES AND WRN ONTARIO REGION AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES AND SHUNT
THE TRACK OF THE LOW TO THE SOUTH. KEEPING THE NRN THIRD OF THE
CWA MOSTLY DRY. BY WED AFTERNOON...AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH SRN WI
A STRONGER SURGE OF UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE LIFTED INTO THE AREA AND
POSSIBLY TRIGGER A FEW T-STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
WED NIGHT AS A SECONDARY WEAK FRONT SLIDES ACROSS FAR NE MN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN ON THURSDAY AND THUR NIGHT...BUT MOVE
RAPIDLY TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY AS THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARRIVES ALONG A WARM FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND WITH THE
MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S AND 70S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT...SO AT THIS TIME THERE IS NO INDICATION
OF ANY SORT OF A SIGNIFICANT LAKE BREEZE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS FROM 5-8K FT WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST LATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. VFR
CEILINGS WILL MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN THAT MOVES IN AS WELL...AT THIS
TIME WE LIMITED THE MENTION TO KBRD. CAPE VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN
LIMITED ENOUGH FOR MAINLY SHOWERS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 49 64 48 68 / 40 50 10 10
INL 48 70 48 68 / 20 10 20 10
BRD 52 69 52 72 / 70 50 10 10
HYR 53 67 51 73 / 40 60 20 10
ASX 50 64 49 68 / 30 50 10 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...TENTINGER
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
228 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...
WEAK CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL MT IN RESPONSE TO AFTN HEATING AND AREA OF PV IN WNW FLOW
ALOFT. PRESSURE FALLS NOTED IN SOUTH CENTRAL MT WILL HELP TO SHIFT
WINDS IN OUR CENTRAL PARTS TO THE EAST...SETTING UP A CONVERGENT
AREA WHICH SHOULD BE FAVORED FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AS ACTIVITY BEGINS
TO SPREAD OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN. BILLINGS DEW PT HAS FALLEN TO 45F
SO WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE THE IMPACTS FROM DRIER AIR SPREADING IN
FROM THE WEST. TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONVECTION
OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THOUGH THE LOWER DEW PTS ARE KEEPING
SBCAPES AT MODEST VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG AS OF THE 19Z
MESOANALYSIS...SO TSTM ACTIVITY MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS HIGH RES
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. PEAK POTENTIAL FOR BILLINGS WILL BE
22-01Z. OUR EAST IS STILL SEEING EFFECTS FROM LARGE AREA OF
STRATUS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND BAKER IS STILL IN THE
50S...SO HAVE SCALED BACK POPS INTO THIS EVENING. FOCUS OF
ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT 6-8 HRS WILL BE OVER OUR WEST HALF. ONLY
OTHER ISSUE TONIGHT IS FOG IN OUR EAST. DEW PT SPREAD IS ONLY 4F
AT BAKER AND HRRR IS SUGGESTIVE OF FOG LATE TONIGHT SO WILL ADD
PATCHY FOG TO FALLON/CARTER.
SFC RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SHIFT SOUTH TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE ADVECTION TO COMMENCE UP THE HIGH
PLAINS. WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ZONAL RIDGING BUT WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE AND EVENING FRONTAL PASSAGE WE SHOULD SEE ISOLD TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON
WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE WITHIN THE MORE
DEEPLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA OVER WY/
SD/NE. TEMPS TOMORROW SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S.
MORE INTERESTING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR US EMERGES THURSDAY AS
WE CONTINUE TO MOIST ADVECT ALLOWING FOR PWATS TO RISE TO NEAR OR
A BIT ABOVE AN INCH ACROSS OUR EAST. NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A
LATE DAY PACIFIC SHORTWAVE BUT THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF RUNS HAVE
TRENDED WEAKER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE...ALLOWING FOR
700MB TEMPS TO RISE TO NEAR +14C IN OUR SOUTH. AS A RESULT IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE NORTH
OF OUR CWA...OR AT THE VERY LEAST ACROSS OUR NORTH AND EAST PARTS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY TO BE
HIGHEST ACROSS OUR NORTH. IF THE NAM IS CORRECT IN SHOWING 2000+
J/KG OF CAPE ALONG WITH PLENTIFUL SHEAR...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT
AN EPISODE OF SEVERE WX. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL
IN HWO AND GRAPHIC. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL TAKE ANOTHER STEP UP
WITH HIGHS FURTHER INTO THE 80S ON THURSDAY...AND MAYBE NEAR 90F
IN OUR SOUTH SUCH AS NEAR SHERIDAN.
JKL
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...
EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT TO END THE WEEK INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND BUT DIVERGE BY MONDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A ZONAL FLOW WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AS AN
UPPER LOW MOVES ONTO THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A FEW
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING A CONTINUED CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ZONAL SUNDAY WITH SOME DRIER AIR POSSIBLY MOVING
INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN LESSENING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LOW AND TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT DIFFER IN TIMING BUT SOMETIME
DURING THE MONDAY OR TUESDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE
AREA. AS A RESULT...THE MONDAY/TUESDAY PERIOD LOOKS TO HAVE THE
BEST SHOT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S FOR MOST
DAYS. HOOLEY
&&
.AVIATION...
A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF A KSHR-KBIL-ROUNDUP LINE.
SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS. AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH 04Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
HOOLEY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 053/082 058/085 060/082 056/076 052/080 057/087 058/082
32/T 23/T 34/T 43/T 21/B 11/B 12/T
LVM 047/081 050/083 053/082 048/074 046/081 050/087 051/083
32/T 33/T 33/T 42/T 11/B 11/B 12/T
HDN 053/084 056/086 058/084 056/076 050/080 055/088 057/083
42/T 23/T 34/T 44/T 21/B 11/B 12/T
MLS 053/082 059/083 060/083 055/076 050/075 055/084 055/080
13/T 34/T 44/T 44/T 22/T 12/T 22/T
4BQ 051/081 057/083 059/083 055/076 049/075 054/087 054/080
23/T 34/T 44/T 44/T 21/B 11/B 11/B
BHK 047/078 055/077 058/082 055/075 049/073 052/081 054/076
22/T 34/T 54/T 44/T 22/T 12/T 22/T
SHR 049/079 053/086 055/081 052/073 047/075 050/086 052/080
43/T 22/T 24/T 44/T 31/B 11/B 12/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
906 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015
.UPDATE...
QUIET WX THIS MORNING AS EARLY MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS EXITED
INTO THE DAKOTAS. CLOUD COVER AND COOL EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW SHOULD LARGELY SUPPRESS CONVECTION FROM THIS POINT ON ACROSS
OUR EAST AND HAVE SCALED BACK POPS TO ISOLD. LOOKING UPSTREAM...
WEAK PV IN ID IS MOVING INTO WESTERN MT. THOUGH WE WILL SEE
GRADUALLY RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS...WEAK
SHORTWAVE TO OUR WEST COMBINED WITH CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL WINDS AND
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE MAY PROMOTE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ALONG OUR WESTERN FOOTHILLS AND FROM 3HT TO
BIL...AS 00Z NSSL WRF AND LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING. A
STRONGER DISCRETE CELL IS POSSIBLE AND WILL KEEP HAIL/GUSTY WIND
WORDING IN THE GRIDS IN THIS AREA. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT A
DEVELOPING MID LEVEL CAP MAY PREVENT ACTIVITY FROM SPREADING VERY
FAR OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN.
HAVE TWEAKED POPS...SKY AND WINDS A BIT PER CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S IN OUR EAST TO THE
LOWER/MID 70S ELSEWHERE...IE STILL A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.
JKL
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...
A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT RESULTED IN A
BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF
I-90/94. THIS ACTIVITY IS SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS EARLY
THIS MORNING. A SECOND AREA OF VORTICITY OVER IDAHO WILL SHIFT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING INTO
THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...IN GENERALLY THE SAME VICINITY AS THE OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH
THIS ACTIVITY.
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING A BIT OF TAIL END JET
ENERGY PUSHES INTO THE AREA PROVIDING SOME EXTRA LIFT OVER THE
WESTERN FOOTHILLS...SPREADING INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OVER
TIME FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FOR THE MOST
PART THIS CONVECTION LOOKS FAIRLY WEAK. HOWEVER THE 00Z NSSL AND
NCAR WRF ENSEMBLES SHOW SOME STRONGER CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG
A SHEAR/CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY OVER WHEATLAND COUNTY MID
AFTERNOON...TRAVERSING SOUTHEAST INTO THE BILLINGS AREA AROUND 6
PM AND THEN CONTINUING INTO THE SHERIDAN AREA MID EVENING. 40-50KTS
OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG WOULD SUPPORT A
FEW STRONG STORMS...THOUGH THIS LOOKS TO BE A NARROW CORRIDOR
RIGHT ALONG THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
INFLUENCE. ADDED MENTION OF SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS TO THIS
AREA AND CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM SO WILL BE
WATCHING THIS AREA CLOSELY GIVEN THE POTENTIAL TO IMPACT THE
BILLINGS VICINITY.
HEIGHT RISES LATE TONIGHT INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY WILL HELP
SUPPRESS CONVECTION BELOW LEVELS SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
THERE IS STILL PACIFIC ENERGY MOVING OVER THE AREA SO CAN`T GO DRY
BUT 20 TO AT MOST 30 POPS SEEM REASONABLE.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE 65 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE WITH A
GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER MOVING THROUGH. FOR WEDNESDAY MORE SUN
AND RISING HEIGHTS WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S MOST AREAS.
CHAMBERS
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAKDOWN DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ITS
ASSOCIATED TROUGH MAKE THEIR WAY ONSHORE. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AND PLACE SOUTHERN MT IN AN AREA RIPE FOR
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER. LOOKING AT THE SPC SREF GUIDANCE A FEW
THINGS STICK OUT. LIFTED INDICES OF LESS THAN -2 COVER MOST OF THE
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES. SUPERCELL COMPOSITE INDEX ALSO LOOKS
DECENT OVER THE SAME AREA WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES ON THE
ORDER OF 40 KTS. ALL OF THIS WILL COMBINE FOR A POTENTIAL SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT THURSDAY EVENING. THIS COULD BE THE MOST ORGANIZED
EVENT IN THE BYZ CWA THIS YEAR TO DATE.
JUST FOR FUN...TOOK A LOOK AT THE CIPS ANALOG IMPACT GUIDANCE FOR
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DOMAIN FOR THURSDAY EVENING. THE HISTORICAL
DATA FOR SIMILAR EVENTS HINTS THAT HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT.
BY FRIDAY THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS SOMEWHAT ZONAL. MODELS PROGGING A
STRONG POCKET OF ENERGY OVER NW MONTANA BY FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS
DISAGREE A LITTLE BIT IN THE POSITIONING OF PRECIPITATION...BUT
APPEARS TO PRESENT A GOOD CHANCE FOR A NOCTURNAL RAIN EVENT
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
AS AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY MOVES EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN MT.
AFTER A COOLER DAY ON SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK
IN NICELY BY MONDAY AND TEMPS WILL CLIMB BACK WELL INTO THE 80S.
SINGER
&&
.AVIATION...
EXPECT A PARTLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY 18Z ACROSS THE KLVM AREA WITH THE
ACTIVITY MOVING EAST TOWARD KBIL BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND FAR
EASTERN MONTANA BY THIS EVENING. SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. HOOLEY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 073 053/082 058/084 059/082 056/075 051/080 057/087
3/T 42/T 23/T 34/T 44/T 21/B 11/B
LVM 073 047/079 050/083 053/082 048/073 045/081 050/087
3/T 32/T 34/T 34/T 42/T 11/B 11/B
HDN 074 054/084 059/086 059/084 056/075 049/080 055/088
3/T 42/T 23/T 34/T 44/T 21/B 11/B
MLS 071 053/082 059/081 058/083 055/075 049/075 055/084
2/W 23/T 24/T 44/T 55/T 22/T 11/B
4BQ 071 051/081 058/083 058/083 055/075 048/075 054/087
2/T 23/T 24/T 45/T 66/T 22/T 11/B
BHK 063 048/078 055/076 055/082 055/074 048/073 052/081
2/T 22/T 34/T 54/T 44/T 22/T 11/B
SHR 070 051/078 054/084 055/081 052/072 046/075 050/086
3/T 43/T 22/T 34/T 44/T 31/B 11/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
408 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS...STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A SURFACE COOL FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT... THEN DIP SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA EARLY WEDNESDAY... BEFORE GRADUALLY WASHING
OUT LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM TUESDAY...
LITTLE CHANGE WITH ANOTHER WARM FAIR NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE
AREA...WITH THE MID/UPR RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STILL IN CONTROL OF
OUR WEATHER. NOT TOO FAR TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID
ATLANTIC REGION AND THE OHIO VALLEY IS A COLD FRONT THATS GRADUALLY
MOVING ESE. THE HRRR ONCE AGAIN IS TRYING TO DEVELOP PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VA AND BRING THEM SOUTHWARD
SKIRTING OUR NORTHERN/NORTHEAST ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING. SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...THE HRRR SEEMS OVERDONE AND THE
LATEST MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT ANY CELLS THAT DEVELOP TO OUR
NORTH WILL MOVE INTO RELATIVELY DRIER AIR OVER OUR AREA...SO FOR
NOW... WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING LIMITED TO OUR FAR
NE ZONES...WITH MOST OF CENTRAL NC REMAINING DRY. PERSISTENCE FOR
LOWS TONIGHT...LOWER TO MID 70S...COOLEST NW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM TUESDAY...
THE WEAK BOUNDARY CURRENTLY TO OUR NORTH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT
SOUTH...BUT A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE INTO THE PERSISTENT MID/UPR
RIDGE. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST IT WILL MOVE INTO NE NC AS A
BACKDOOR FRONT WHILE THE ECMWF IS ALSO MOVES IT ACROSS OUR AREA
TONIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING LATE ON WEDNESDAY. BOTH SUGGEST SLIGHTLY
COOLER READINGS ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ABOUT 20M
LOWER THAN TODAY...AND COOLEST READINGS ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST ZONES
WHERE THE BEST CHANCE FOR POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS MODIFICATION WILL
OCCUR. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 90 ACROSS OUR NE
ZONES...TO MID-UPR 90S ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ZONES...WHERE
LITTLE IF ANY AIRMASS MODIFICATION WILL OCCUR. HEAT INDICES ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES (WHERE THE HOTTEST TEMPS WILL BE) ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL SHORT OF ADVISORY VALUES...SO FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING A
HEAT ADVISORY AND WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT RE-EVALUATE PENDING
TONIGHTS GUIDANCE.
OTHERWISE...THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE MID-MISS
RIVER VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...EXITING THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LATEST ROUND OF CAMS SUGGEST SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ASSOC WITH THIS WAVE WILL TRACK EAST ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC...WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS
ACTIVITY PERHAPS EXTENDING SOUTH INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL NC LATE IN
THE DAY WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW HIGHEST POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM TUESDAY...
THU-SAT: THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...THEN RECEDE TO
THE DEEP SOUTH/SOUTHEAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES (INCLUDING THE REMNANTS OF TC BILL) TRACKING
EASTWARD (ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE) INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC. EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE...THOUGH
HIGHS ARE UNLIKELY TO EXCEED THE MID/UPPER 90S GIVEN AN INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY ON FRI/SAT AS BILL`S
REMNANTS TRACK EAST OF THE MS RIVER THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AND MID-
ATLANTIC.
SUN-TUE: THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF/GFS SUGGEST THAT A PERIOD OF NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL ENSUE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE STRENGTHENS UPSTREAM OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND LOWER MIDWEST. THEREAFTER...BOTH MODELS INDICATE THAT
THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE CAROLINAS/MID-
ATLANTIC. AS A RESULT...EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
PERSIST...WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE (AGAIN) BY
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR TO POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL MON-TUE WHEN NW FLOW ALOFT IS
PROGGED TO BE IN PLACE. SEVERE WEATHER CAN RARELY BE RULED OUT WHEN
NW FLOW ALOFT IS PRESENT THIS TIME OF YEAR...PARTICULARLY WITH A
STRENGTHENING UPSTREAM RIDGE. SUCH A PATTERN CAN DELIVER THE
ATYPICAL INGREDIENTS NECESSARY FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER...
I.E. A PRONOUNCED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AND ENHANCED DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. -VINCENT
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM TUESDAY...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE VA BORDER THIS EVENING...AND
THIS COULD LOCALLY AND VERY BRIEFLY REDUCE FLT CONDITIONS TO MVFR...
BUT RIGHT NOW THE RISK IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN OUR TAF SITES. W-NW
WINDS AROUND 10 KT WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING ISOLATED LATE-DAY SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE
EACH DAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
REC HI
DAY MAX YR MIN YR
RDU RECORDS
06/16 98 1981 75 1998
06/17 99 1961 75 2004
06/18 98 1944 75 1935
GSO RECORDS
06/16 96 1914 73 2004
06/17 98 1944 76 2004
06/18 100 1944 73 1970
FAY RECORDS
06/16 100 1981 77 1998
06/17 101 1981 77 1945
06/18 102 1944 76 2004
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT TODAY FOR NCZ007>011-023>028-
039>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...RAH
CLIMATE...MLM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
325 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS...STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A SURFACE COOL FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT... THEN DIP SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA EARLY WEDNESDAY... BEFORE GRADUALLY WASHING
OUT LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM TUESDAY...
LITTLE CHANGE WITH ANOTHER WARM FAIR NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE
AREA...WITH THE MID/UPR RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STILL IN CONTROL OF
OUR WEATHER. NOT TOO FAR TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID
ATLANTIC REGION AND THE OHIO VALLEY IS A COLD FRONT THATS GRADUALLY
MOVING ESE. THE HRRR ONCE AGAIN IS TRYING TO DEVELOP PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VA AND BRING THEM SOUTHWARD
SKIRTING OUR NORTHERN/NORTHEAST ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING. SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...THE HRRR SEEMS OVERDONE AND THE
LATEST MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT ANY CELLS THAT DEVELOP TO OUR
NORTH WILL MOVE INTO RELATIVELY DRIER AIR OVER OUR AREA...SO FOR
NOW... WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING LIMITED TO OUR FAR
NE ZONES...WITH MOST OF CENTRAL NC REMAINING DRY. PERSISTENCE FOR
LOWS TONIGHT...LOWER TO MID 70S...COOLEST NW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM TUESDAY...
THE WEAK BOUNDARY CURRENTLY TO OUR NORTH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT
SOUTH...BUT A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE INTO THE PERSISTENT MID/UPR
RIDGE. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST IT WILL MOVE INTO NE NC AS A
BACKDOOR FRONT WHILE THE ECMWF IS ALSO MOVES IT ACROSS OUR AREA
TONIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING LATE ON WEDNESDAY. BOTH SUGGEST SLIGHTLY
COOLER READINGS ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ABOUT 20M
LOWER THAN TODAY...AND COOLEST READINGS ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST ZONES
WHERE THE BEST CHANCE FOR POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS MODIFICATION WILL
OCCUR. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 90 ACROSS OUR NE
ZONES...TO MID-UPR 90S ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ZONES...WHERE
LITTLE IF ANY AIRMASS MODIFICATION WILL OCCUR. HEAT INDICES ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES (WHERE THE HOTTEST TEMPS WILL BE) ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL SHORT OF ADVISORY VALUES...SO FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING A
HEAT ADVISORY AND WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT RE-EVALUATE PENDING
TONIGHTS GUIDANCE.
OTHERWISE...THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE MID-MISS
RIVER VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...EXITING THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LATEST ROUND OF CAMS SUGGEST SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ASSOC WITH THIS WAVE WILL TRACK EAST ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC...WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS
ACTIVITY PERHAPS EXTENDING SOUTH INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL NC LATE IN
THE DAY WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW HIGHEST POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 235 AM TUESDAY...
WITH BILL HAVING DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING
THE PAST 12 HOURS...THE LATEST (00Z) RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AS IT MOVES INLAND. THE
REMNANTS OF BILL ARE FORECAST TO GET ABSORBED BY THE WESTERLIES
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...RESULTING IN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IMPINGING ON THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH VA AND
PA. AS OF THE LATEST RUNS THE MAIN ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE SHOULD STAY TO OUR NW AND NORTH. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS ACTUALLY APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN
CENTRAL NC IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED S/W TO THE
NORTHWEST AND THE HIGH OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. CONVECTION MAY LINGER
ACROSS THE EAST ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAY END UP BEING
MOSTLY DRY WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM POSSIBLE... ALTHOUGH KEEP
IN MIND THAT IS PRETTY FAR OUT AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH
AT THIS TIME. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S...WHILE
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM TUESDAY...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE VA BORDER THIS EVENING...AND
THIS COULD LOCALLY AND VERY BRIEFLY REDUCE FLT CONDITIONS TO MVFR...
BUT RIGHT NOW THE RISK IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN OUR TAF SITES. W-NW
WINDS AROUND 10 KT WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING ISOLATED LATE-DAY SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE
EACH DAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
REC HI
DAY MAX YR MIN YR
RDU RECORDS
06/16 98 1981 75 1998
06/17 99 1961 75 2004
06/18 98 1944 75 1935
GSO RECORDS
06/16 96 1914 73 2004
06/17 98 1944 76 2004
06/18 100 1944 73 1970
FAY RECORDS
06/16 100 1981 77 1998
06/17 101 1981 77 1945
06/18 102 1944 76 2004
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT TODAY FOR NCZ007>011-023>028-
039>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...RAH
CLIMATE...MLM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
205 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A PROLONGED HEAT WAVE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK AS
AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH
A THERMAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH
CAROLINA. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN DISSIPATE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 100 PM TUE...ANOTHER MINOR UPDATE FOR LATEST HOURLY TEMP AND
DEW PT TRENDS. TEMPS APPROACHING 100 INLAND AND EVEN 98 AT KITTY
HAWK..BUT NW WINDS INLAND HAVE ALLOWED DEW PTS TO DROP INTO LOWER
60S COASTAL PLAINS KEEPING HEAT INDICES TO AROUND 100 FOR NOW.
LATEST HRRR INDICATES ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER HYDE/DARE MAINLAND
AREAS NEXT FEW HOURS AND THERE IS SOME CU DEVELOPING THERE...BUT
DO NOT SEE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO ADD 20 POP.
/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 635 AM TUESDAY...THE BIG STORY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
RECORD HEAT WITH HIGHS INLAND IN THE LOW 100S IN COMBINATION WITH
HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS (DEWPOINTS 67-75F) PRODUCING DANGEROUS HEAT
INDEX VALUES 105 DEGREES OR HIGHER. THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL REACH IT`S PEAK TODAY. ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL WARM THE ATMOSPHERE RESULTING
IN 850 TEMPS 22-23C AND 1000/850 THICKNESS VALUES 1440-1450
YIELDING TEMPERATURES AT OR IN EXCESS OF 100 DEGREES. INITIAL
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP TO PIN THE SEA BREEZE TO THE COAST
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON SO THAT EVEN THE BEACHES WILL NOT ESCAPE
HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TODAY. CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS KEEP
TODAY DRY WITH SUBSIDENCE AS INDICATED BY THE LARGE AREA OF DRY
MID LEVEL AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SO WILL CONTINUE WITH
THAT TREND ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER/STORM CAN`T BE RULED OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM TUESDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NC TONIGHT. WHILE
THE MODELS AGREE THAT THE FLOW WILL TEMPORARILY SHIFT TO NORTH
OVERNIGHT THEY ARE GIVING MIXED RESULTS ON THE PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL. THE HIGH RESOLUTION CAM MODELS INDICATE THAT A MCS WILL
BE MOVING SOUTHEAST VICINITY OF THE FRONT ACROSS NC THIS EVENING
WITH THE WRF NMM THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE
MOSTLY DRY BRINGING IN CLOUDS BUT LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION. DUE
TO THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS POTENTIAL. IT IS NOTED THAT THE SPC HAS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
IN A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK MEANING THAT STRONG CONVECTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE SHOULD THESE STORMS MATERIALIZE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWS 70S DEEP INLAND TO A SULTRY 80 AT THE BEACHES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM TUESDAY...A PERSISTENT SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS
ANCHORED ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH EASTERN NC EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TYPICAL DIURNAL TYPE
SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE HOLDS
STRONG. THURSDAY COULD SEE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR TSTORMS
AS THE PIEDMONT THERMAL TROUGH RE-ESTABLISHES WEST OF THE AREA
WITH A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTING OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST,
CREATING A WEAK LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE AREA CENTERED OVER EASTERN NC
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NAM/GFS FAVOR A WETTER SCENARIO WHILE THE
ECMWF SUGGEST DRIER LOW LEVELS AND QUICKER SHIFT OF CONFLUENCE
ZONE OFF THE COAST. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS INLAND TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ALONG/OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
ONLY DROP BY AROUND 20 METERS AND 850MB TEMPS BY ABOUT 2 DEGREES
SO WILL NOT SEE A SIGNIFICANT RELIEF FROM THE HEAT THROUGH MID
WEEK. HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE MID 90S INLAND TO 85-90 ALONG THE COAST.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SLIGHT DIFFERENCES CONTINUE IN
THE 00Z GUIDANCE LATE IN THE PERIOD, MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH HOW
THEY HANDLE THE TRACK/MOISTURE PLUME OF TROPICAL STORM BILL
CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST. CURRENT GUIDANCE
KEEPS THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
THOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE BECOMES SHUNTED SOUTHEAST SLIGHTLY OFF THE
FL COAST BY SATURDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS SUGGEST A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO EASTERN NC LATE FRIDAY, THOUGH
BEST UPPER SUPPORT/FORCING REMAIN IN CENTRAL VA, WITH THE FRONT
WASHING OUT OVER THE REGION SATURDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AGAIN ENSUES OVER EASTERN NC. GUIDANCE DIFFERS MORE WITH LOCATION
OF DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THE ECMWF MOVING THE MOISTURE THROUGH
EASTERN NC FRI NIGHT, WHILE THE GFS KEEPS DEEPER MOISTURE OVER
EASTERN NC THROUGH SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MAINLY
DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF KEEP 850MB TEMPS AROUND 20 DEGREES WITH LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES AROUND 1425-1440M SO THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE AND EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S INLAND WITH 85-90 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ZONAL FLOW STARTS THE PERIOD WITH A UPPER
TROUGH GRADUALLY DIGGING INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY
THE CAROLINAS WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA
LATE IN THE PERIOD. CONTINUE DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION WITH
HEIGHT FALLS AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH 850MB TEMPS REMAINING AROUND 20 DEGREES WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING HIGHS IN THE 90S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE
COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...THEREFORE REDUCING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOPMENT FOR THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL APRROACH OUR AREA FROM THE NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS ARE
INDICATING MOST OF THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL DIMINISH AS IT MOVES INTO OUR AREA. PLUS...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING NO FOG DEVELOPMENT AS TEMPERATURE AND
DEWPOINT IS ABOVE 5 DEGREE SPREAD. OVERALL...EXPECT SCATTERED
CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON UNDER LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 450 AM TUES...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TAF SITES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
ISOLATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN MAINLY DIURNAL STORMS POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON. PRE-DAWN STRATUS AND/OR FOG MAY PRODUCE SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE
PRECIPITATION.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE. LATEST GDNC
SUPPORTS CURRENT WESTERLY WINDS BECOMING SW AND INCREASING TO
10-15 KT LATE THIS AFTN AS THERMAL TROFFING SHARPENS INLAND.
/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 635 AM TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS CURRENTLY 10 TO 15 KT WILL
BRIEFLY DIMINISH TO 10 KT LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE INCREASING
AGAIN TO 15 KT LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE WATERS TONIGHT WITH THE FLOW SHIFTING TO NORTH AROUND 15 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT TODAY WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT
TONIGHT WITH SOME 5 FT SEAS POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS
LATE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 450 AM TUES...A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL DROP THROUGH THE WATERS
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY
AT 5 TO 10 KTS. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH FLOW
BECOMING SOUTHERLY THEN SOUTHWESTERLY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO
15 TO 20 KNOTS INTO FRIDAY. SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 4 FEET ACROSS THE
WATERS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD, HOWEVER SEAS MAY BUILD TO 3
TO 5 FEET THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS TODAY:
6/16
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 95/1981 (KEWN ASOS)
HATTERAS 92/1981 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 100/1981 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 98/1981 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 99/1944 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 101/1981 (KNCA AWOS)
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ029-044>047-
079>081-090>095-098-103-104.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME/JBM
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...SK/DAG
AVIATION...DAG/BM
MARINE...JME/JBM/SK/DAG
CLIMATE...MHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
148 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. WARM HUMID AIR MASS OVER THE STATE IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT WILL COMBINE TO SPARK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STORMS
WILL PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NOT A LOT OF STORMS IN OUR AREA. MAIN CONCERN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WILL BE THE FAR SW COUNTIES...AS MORE STORMS OVER EASTERN OH TRACK
EASTWARD.
STILL HAVE TO WATCH THE NW AREAS LATER THIS MORNING...AS MORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE OVER NW OH.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
TOUCHED UP FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS ON RADAR AND THE HI
RES MODEL RUNS. LOOKING TO THE WEST CAN SEE THE COMPLEX MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN OH. THE HRRR MOVES THIS INTO CENTRAL PA ABOUT 04Z
AND GRADUALLY WEAKENS IT AS ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
PROBABLY WHAT IS BACK OVER THE CHICAGO AREA. THIS REACHES CENTRAL
PA AFTER 09Z ACCORDING TO THE HRRR. THE 18Z NAM12 RUN FOCUSES MORE
ON PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE STATE. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THERE IS AMBLE MOISTURE AND HIGHER
PWATS WITH THE NEXT BATCH THAT WILL MOVE IN. HENCE THE CONCERN FOR
POTENTIAL FLOODING FOR ANY AREAS GETTING REPEAT STORM CELLS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL LINGER THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDDAY NORTH AND CENTRAL...WHILE THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT
SHIFTS SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. AS UPPER TROF WEAKENS AND MOVES ESE ACROSS THE AREA AND
H5 SHEAR AXIS BECOMES ALIGNED ALONG MASON DIXON LINE BY 00Z WED.
SPC CONTINUES A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PA
TUESDAY...THREAT LIMITED BY WEAKER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...AN
EARLIER EXIT AND LIMITED CAPE. FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH
MIDDAY HOURS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL LOOKING LIKE A BREAK FROM THE STORMY CONDITIONS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF WED.
MORE IN THE WAY OF SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILDS IN FOR THU.
SOME SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...WHICH WILL DETERMINE IF WE
SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF AND STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. EITHER
WAY...DID UP POPS A LITTLE FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR POPS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR TEMPS.
FOR MONDAY...LOOKING LIKE A SLIGHTLY STRONGER COLD FRONT.
SOME SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...THUS WENT WITH RATHER LOW
POPS AND DID NOT GO REAL COLD ON THE TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER WEST CENTRAL PA WILL
SLOWLY MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THESE STORMS WILL BRING VCTS TO JST
AND AOO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE NW...MOST LIKELY AREA FOR CONVECTION LATE
TONIGHT SHIFTS BACK TO THE NW PORTION OF CWA /AND MAY EXTEND INTO
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS ON NOSE OF A LL JET/...BUT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT BFD...JST...AOO AND UNV.
CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS RETURN AS WELL WITH MANY AREAS SLIPPING
BACK TO MVFR TO IFR OVERNIGHT. THESE RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 12Z...IMPROVING BETWEEN 13Z TO 15Z.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH VARYING
RESTRICTIONS IS PROBABLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
OTHERWISE VFR SE...MVFR NW.
OUTLOOK...
WED...PRIMARILY VFR.
THU-SAT...CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-
017-018-024-025-033-034-037-041.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WATSON
NEAR TERM...WATSON/DEVOIR/MARTIN
SHORT TERM...WATSON/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
844 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 841 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST MT THIS EVENING WERE HEADING SOUTHEAST
INTO NORTHWEST SD. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SHOWED THIS CONVECTION
HOLDING TOGETHER AND EXPANDING SOME AS IT HEADS SOUTHEAST INTO
PARTS OF CENTRAL SD LATER TONIGHT. MAY ADJUST CHANCES UP A LITTLE
AS IT GETS CLOSER. NOT MUCH FOR INSTABILITY INTO CENTRAL SD ALONG
WITH ANY LLJ.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
AS EXPECTED...CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO ERODE TODAY BUT SKIES HAVE
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER CENTRAL SD. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...WILL BE
WATCHING WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY ENTERING THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AS A
WEAK LOW LEVEL JET ALSO DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. MODELS AGREE FAIRLY WELL IN BRINGING A COMPLEX OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS WESTERN SD THEN INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AREAL
COVERAGE OF ANY POTENTIAL COMPLEX IS THE BIG QUESTION. WILL KEEP
POPS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME BUT EVENING/OVERNIGHT SHIFT MAY NEED TO
INCREASE POPS ONCE THIS BEGINS TO EVOLVE. MUCAPE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWEST CWA DOES SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT WITH DECENT
AMOUNTS OF SHEAR. COULD POSSIBLY BE A FEW STRONGER STORMS OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING LOOK GENERALLY DRY ACROSS THE AREA AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS MN AND INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
AS THE INITIAL PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS. UNFORTUNATELY THERE IS NOT A LOT OF AGREEMENT AMONGST THE
MODELS IN REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND PLACEMENT
OF BEST CONVERGENCE. NOT MUCH AGREEMENT ON WHERE THE POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL BE AS WELL.
WILL THEN BE WATCHING FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE INCREASING
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS. SFC DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE 60S TO
NEAR 70 DEGREES ON FRIDAY. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPS
BY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT MODELS DO STILL SHOW RATHER WARM TEMPS
ALOFT SPREADING OVER THE REGION...SO CAPPING WILL BE AN ISSUE. SFC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE EVENING HOURS
WITH MODELS TRYING TO GENERATE CONVECTION. THE CONVERGENCE ALONG
THIS FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH TO BUST THROUGH THE CAP AND IF THIS
HAPPENS...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE SVR
PARAMETERS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES AT 500 AND 700MB
WILL EXIT THE REGION SAT MORNING. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS/TSTORMS EARLY. ANOTHER WEAKER LOW WILL MOVES ACROSS ND SAT
NIGHT/SUN MORNING BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTORMS.
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY QUICK MOVING
SFC LOWS AND SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK. MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY RESOLVING
TIMING AND AREAL EXTENT AS IS TYPICAL WITH THESE PATTERNS SO STUCK
WITH A MODEL BLENDED BROAD BRUSH APPROACH.
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE MID 80S THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
MVFR CEILINGS OVER ATY WILL MOVE OUT THIS EVENING WITH CONDITIONS
BECOMING VFR. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL LOCATIONS
THROUGH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY AFFECT THE PIR AREA LATER ON
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH IN LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN BEHIND. THERE WILL BE SOME SCT-BKN VFR/MVFR STRATUS FORM/MOVE
INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AS WINDS BECOME EAST
TO NORTHEAST.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...MOHR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1116 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 926 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015/
UPDATE...
925 PM KNQA RADAR SHOWED DISSIPATED SHOWERS OVER NORTH MS...WHILE
WEST OF THE MS RIVER...A LONE SHOWER WAS NOTED AT GILMORE AR.
01Z HRRR MODEL DEPICTED LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL SHOWER POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS STABLE UNDER THE
RELATIVELY WARM MIDLEVEL TEMPS. 00Z NAM SHOWS A SIMILAR SOLUTION.
A FORTHCOMING UPDATE WILL FEATURE REDUCED RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ON
TRACK AT MIDEVENING.
PWB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE MUCH LIKE THE PAST
SEVERAL...WARM AND HUMID WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
ONE COULD SAY THE NEXT 30 OR 60 DAYS WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR AS
WELL...ITS SUMMER. THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS
EAST ARKANSAS...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STORM COULD POP UP VIRTUALLY
ANYWHERE. THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT OF THIS UPDATE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
IMPACT FROM A TROPICAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
SYNOPTICALLY A BROAD VERTICALLY STACKED SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER
RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC STATES.
THIS SETUP PUTS THE MIDSOUTH ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER TO OUR NORTH AND WEST AND THE HOTTER...BUT DRIER
WEATHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THIS PATTERN REALLY ISN`T EXPECTED
TO CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE
SHOULD WEAKEN A BIT...LIKELY RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH. FARTHER SOUTH IN THE GULF...ALL
EYES ARE FOCUSED ON A DEVELOPING TROPICAL SYSTEM...LIKELY TO
BECOME OUR SECOND NAMED TROPICAL STORM OF THE YEAR. THIS SYSTEM
COULD BECOME A MAJOR PLAYER IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDSOUTH BY
WEDNESDAY. CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS TAKES IT INSHORE NEAR HOUSTON
ACROSS DALLAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA...THEN ARCING TO THE NORTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI. IF THIS SOLUTION VERIFIES...WE COULD SEE
CONDITIONS AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MORE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WESTERN AND POSSIBLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTH. IF IT SHIFTS FARTHER
WEST...THE ENTIRE AREA COULD BE INFLUENCED BY SUBSIDENCE ON THE
OUTSKIRTS OF THE STORM RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AREA WIDE. IF
ITS TRACK SHIFTS FARTHER EAST...WIDESPREAD RAIN WOULD BE MORE
LIKELY AREA WIDE. STORM INTENSITY WOULD ALSO PLAY A
ROLL...ALTHOUGH NOT AS BIG AS THE TRACK. GUIDANCE VARIES BY AS
MUCH AS 24 HOURS FOR LANDFALL AND WHEN IT WOULD HAVE ITS GREATEST
IMPACT ON THE MIDSOUTH. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE STORM SHOULD BE
TOO FAR EAST TO PLAY MUCH OF A ROLE IN THE MIDSOUTH. THE UPPER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ZONAL. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...HIGHS NEAR 90 WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S...AND NEAR
NORMAL 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED.
30
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR VCTS TOMORROW WILL OCCUR AT JBR...BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z. ALL
OTHER TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN PRECIP-FREE WITH WINDS BETWEEN 10
AND 15 MPH FROM THE SOUTH.
TVT
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
644 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2015
.DISCUSSION...
Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast
period, with light and variable/light easterly winds. The only
caveat would be the potential for storms across New Mexico to
expand SSE overnight, eventually affecting mainly KCNM and KHOB
late tonight/early Thursday. However, confidence in this scenario
is too low to include in the current TAF, though will bear
watching.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2015/
DISCUSSION...
Isolated showers have developed over the area this afternoon on
the backside of Tropical Cyclone Bill which is now about to cross
the Red River into OK. The majority of this activity will stay in
the eastern Permian Basin before diminishing after sunset. As Bill
lifts northeast, an upper ridge will try to build east across the
Southern Plains. Before it does so, our region will remain in weak
northerly mid level flow. If thunderstorms form over the TX
Panhandle or NE NM later this afternoon or Thursday they will move
south and may make it to the area during the overnight hours. Both
the HRRR and WRF-NMM show a complex of showers and storms moving
across eastern NM and W TX overnight. Rain chances diminish Friday
into the weekend as the upper ridge takes hold on the area. Will
need to monitor the strength of the ridge as recent models have
shown a weakness/inverted trough developing over South Texas and
slowly drifting it west. This solution could bring a few showers
and storms back to the area from the east late in the weekend into
next week.
Much warmer conditions are expected tomorrow as mid level
temperatures increase quite a bit. Expect highs to be about 5 to 10
degrees warmer than today. Temperatures will moderate somewhat into
the weekend as easterly flow sets up along with abundant low level
moisture. If we see the inverted trough move across the area early
next week, high temperatures may struggle to get out of the 80s!
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1235 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2015
.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGs are beginning to lift and scatter out to VFR across at
the TAF sites. Any TAF site could see a brief return of these
lower conditions but do not see this threat great enough to
include in the TAFs. Scattered showers are also occurring across
the area but very little if any lightning is being observed so
will not mention any TS at this time. A return of MVFR CIGs is
expected tonight and will last through mid morning Wednesday.
Hennig
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2015/
DISCUSSION...As of 4:00 AM CDT Tuesday...the strong convection
near Guadalupe NP has finally died out.
Water Vapor imagery and GOES High Density winds are showing a
ridge centered in the East Pacific west of Southern CA stretching
into Northern Chihuahua and another ridge centered over the
Southeastern US. A weakness in the pattern is centered over the
Southern Plains with a weak upper low over TX...possibly enhanced
by the MCV that was located over Reagan County earlier yesterday.
TS Bill in the Gulf of Mexico continues to churn northwest
towards the Southern TX coast.
The latest NAM12 and HRRR develops convection over Central TX
early this morning and move it southwest into the CWA in NE flow
aloft. Based on the forecast track TS Bill will have minimal
impact on the sensible weather for West TX and SE New Mexico. With
fairly stable mid level lapse rates...low CAPE...and very weak
Bulk Shear do not expect any severe wx. The main impact from the
convection will be the possibility of heavy rain and localized
flooding with PW`s near 1.5 inches and the slow movement of the
storms. Temps will be relatively "cool" with ample cloud cover.
Precip chances will be much less tonight through Wednesday night
as the ridge in the Pacific and Northern Chihuahua builds east
into Southwest TX. Models drop a vort max south thru West TX on
Thursday around the eastern edge of the ridge. This could bring an
increasing chance of convection Thursday and Thursday night.
From Friday through early next week the ridge in the Eastern
Pacific will move ENE...and become centered over the Southern
Rockies/Central High Plains in response to a mid/upper trough in
the Gulf of Alaska. Since the ridge will be centered north of the
CWA it will leave the area in a deep layer easterly flow. Have
kept temps near normal...more in line with the European MOS
guidance. Felt that the GFS MOS guidance with temps above 100 for
Midland was too high for this type of pattern. Even though the
models don`t indicate it at this time...this type of pattern is
conducive for isolated aftn convection...especially if any
easterly waves move across the Gulf of Mexico.
Strobin
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
10
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1217 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2015
.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will increase across all of
West Central Texas this afternoon. Thunderstorms may result in
brief MVFR conditions. A gradual decrease in convection is
expected by mid to late evening. Stratus will once again develop
this evening into early Wednesday morning, resulting in MVFR/IFR
ceilings at all sites.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1103 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2015/
UPDATE...
To increase PoPs...
DISCUSSION...
A very moist and increasingly unstable atmosphere will reside
across West Central Texas today. Showers are already beginning to
develop across the area, and coverage and intensity is expected to
increase as we head into the afternoon hours. The HRRR seems to
have a good handle on the current activity and supports scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. PoPs were
increased slightly across the area and heavy rain was added to the
forecast. Temperatures were also tweaked down slightly given the
expected cloud cover and precipitation. Otherwise, no other
changes are needed at this time.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2015/
AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Widespread stratus will produce MVFR/IFR ceilings at the terminals
this morning. The ceilings will lift to low end VFR at most of the
terminals this afternoon and evening, and then low clouds return
late tonight, with IFR ceilings at the terminals. The combination
of a tropical airmass and some instability will produce scattered
showers and thunderstorms through much of the TAF forecast period.
Going with mainly VCSH/VCTS at the terminals, with a few hours of
5SM SHRA.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2015/
SHORT TERM...
Good rain chances continue for most of West Central Texas for the
next 24 hours. Tropical Storm Bill will move onshore sometime
today, likely this morning, near Port Lavaca. The latest forecast
track brings this system to near Goldwaite around sunrise
Wednesday morning. Meanwhile, a weak disturbance aloft over West
Texas will continue to enhance rain chances for West Central Texas
today and tonight. Based on model forecasts, the best rain
chances will be mainly across our eastern counties; however,
tropical systems like Bill have historically not produced heavy
rainfall for our eastern counties, if the track is too far east.
This is because sinking air aloft usually occurs to the west of
these tropical systems. Thus, our confidence regrading the
potential for heavy rainfall is not high enough to issue any Flash
Flood Watch, at this time. We do believe our eastern counties will
receive more rainfall, during the next 24 hours, than our other
counties. The question is how much?
LONG TERM...
The long term forecast includes rain chances through Friday, before
drier air moves into Texas and ends rain chance, for the remainder
of the long term. Models are in fair good agreement through the
end of this week, and they continue a weak disturbance over Texas.
The GFS and ECMWF slowly move this weak disturbance aloft away from
Texas and toward the northeast later this week. Thus, diminishing
rain chances into Friday look reasonable. For Saturday and into
the start of next week, high pressure builds over Texas from the
west, and a dry pattern will dominate West Central Texas.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 68 81 69 88 69 / 50 60 30 30 20
San Angelo 68 86 68 88 69 / 40 50 20 20 20
Junction 69 85 69 85 69 / 50 60 40 40 30
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
Daniels
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1103 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2015
.UPDATE...
To increase PoPs...
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A very moist and increasingly unstable atmosphere will reside
across West Central Texas today. Showers are already beginning to
develop across the area, and coverage and intensity is expected to
increase as we head into the afternoon hours. The HRRR seems to
have a good handle on the current activity and supports scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. PoPs were
increased slightly across the area and heavy rain was added to the
forecast. Temperatures were also tweaked down slightly given the
expected cloud cover and precipitation. Otherwise, no other
changes are needed at this time.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2015/
AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Widespread stratus will produce MVFR/IFR ceilings at the terminals
this morning. The ceilings will lift to low end VFR at most of the
terminals this afternoon and evening, and then low clouds return
late tonight, with IFR ceilings at the terminals. The combination
of a tropical airmass and some instability will produce scattered
showers and thunderstorms through much of the TAF forecast period.
Going with mainly VCSH/VCTS at the terminals, with a few hours of
5SM SHRA.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2015/
SHORT TERM...
Good rain chances continue for most of West Central Texas for the
next 24 hours. Tropical Storm Bill will move onshore sometime
today, likely this morning, near Port Lavaca. The latest forecast
track brings this system to near Goldwaite around sunrise
Wednesday morning. Meanwhile, a weak disturbance aloft over West
Texas will continue to enhance rain chances for West Central Texas
today and tonight. Based on model forecasts, the best rain
chances will be mainly across our eastern counties; however,
tropical systems like Bill have historically not produced heavy
rainfall for our eastern counties, if the track is too far east.
This is because sinking air aloft usually occurs to the west of
these tropical systems. Thus, our confidence regrading the
potential for heavy rainfall is not high enough to issue any Flash
Flood Watch, at this time. We do believe our eastern counties will
receive more rainfall, during the next 24 hours, than our other
counties. The question is how much?
LONG TERM...
The long term forecast includes rain chances through Friday, before
drier air moves into Texas and ends rain chance, for the remainder
of the long term. Models are in fair good agreement through the
end of this week, and they continue a weak disturbance over Texas.
The GFS and ECMWF slowly move this weak disturbance aloft away from
Texas and toward the northeast later this week. Thus, diminishing
rain chances into Friday look reasonable. For Saturday and into
the start of next week, high pressure builds over Texas from the
west, and a dry pattern will dominate West Central Texas.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 68 81 69 88 69 / 50 60 30 30 20
San Angelo 68 86 68 88 69 / 40 50 20 20 20
Junction 69 85 69 85 69 / 50 60 40 40 30
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
Daniels
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
535 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2015
.DISCUSSION...
The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR ceilings are expected to form and possibly affect KCNM, KHOB
and KMAF along with MVFR visibility in fog. The other area
terminals could also see MVFR conditions, but think these instances
will be more brief. The fog should lift by 16/15Z, while MVFR
ceilings last until around 17Z, especially at KMAF. KMAF will
also be the only terminal where TSRA is included, but this could
change if thunderstorm development turns out more widespread than
currently expected.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2015/
DISCUSSION...As of 4:00 AM CDT Tuesday...the strong convection
near Guadalupe NP has finally died out.
Water Vapor imagery and GOES High Density winds are showing a
ridge centered in the East Pacific west of Southern CA stretching
into Northern Chihuahua and another ridge centered over the
Southeastern US. A weakness in the pattern is centered over the
Southern Plains with a weak upper low over TX...possibly enhanced
by the MCV that was located over Reagan County earlier yesterday.
TS Bill in the Gulf of Mexico continues to churn northwest
towards the Southern TX coast.
The latest NAM12 and HRRR develops convection over Central TX
early this morning and move it southwest into the CWA in NE flow
aloft. Based on the forecast track TS Bill will have minimal
impact on the sensible weather for West TX and SE New Mexico. With
fairly stable mid level lapse rates...low CAPE...and very weak
Bulk Shear do not expect any severe wx. The main impact from the
convection will be the possibility of heavy rain and localized
flooding with PW`s near 1.5 inches and the slow movement of the
storms. Temps will be relatively "cool" with ample cloud cover.
Precip chances will be much less tonight through Wednesday night
as the ridge in the Pacific and Northern Chihuahua builds east
into Southwest TX. Models drop a vort max south thru West TX on
Thursday around the eastern edge of the ridge. This could bring an
increasing chance of convection Thursday and Thursday night.
From Friday through early next week the ridge in the Eastern
Pacific will move ENE...and become centered over the Southern
Rockies/Central High Plains in response to a mid/upper trough in
the Gulf of Alaska. Since the ridge will be centered north of the
CWA it will leave the area in a deep layer easterly flow. Have
kept temps near normal...more in line with the European MOS
guidance. Felt that the GFS MOS guidance with temps above 100 for
Midland was too high for this type of pattern. Even though the
models don`t indicate it at this time...this type of pattern is
conducive for isolated aftn convection...especially if any
easterly waves move across the Gulf of Mexico.
Strobin
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 84 66 90 68 / 40 20 10 0
BIG SPRING TX 84 69 88 69 / 50 30 20 0
CARLSBAD NM 88 67 94 68 / 20 10 10 0
DRYDEN TX 88 70 93 72 / 50 40 20 10
FORT STOCKTON TX 87 68 93 70 / 40 20 20 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 83 65 88 67 / 10 10 10 0
HOBBS NM 84 64 90 67 / 20 10 10 10
MARFA TX 81 60 88 61 / 30 10 10 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 85 67 91 68 / 50 20 20 0
ODESSA TX 85 67 90 69 / 50 20 20 0
WINK TX 88 68 96 72 / 30 10 10 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
67/33
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
421 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2015
.DISCUSSION...As of 4:00 AM CDT Tuesday...the strong convection
near Guadalupe NP has finally died out.
Water Vapor imagery and GOES High Density winds are showing a
ridge centered in the East Pacific west of Southern CA stretching
into Northern Chihuahua and another ridge centered over the
Southeastern US. A weakness in the pattern is centered over the
Southern Plains with a weak upper low over TX...possibly enhanced
by the MCV that was located over Reagan County earlier yesterday.
TS Bill in the Gulf of Mexico continues to churn northwest
towards the Southern TX coast.
The latest NAM12 and HRRR develops convection over Central TX
early this morning and move it southwest into the CWA in NE flow
aloft. Based on the forecast track TS Bill will have minimal
impact on the sensible weather for West TX and SE New Mexico. With
fairly stable mid level lapse rates...low CAPE...and very weak
Bulk Shear do not expect any severe wx. The main impact from the
convection will be the possibility of heavy rain and localized
flooding with PW`s near 1.5 inches and the slow movement of the
storms. Temps will be relatively "cool" with ample cloud cover.
Precip chances will be much less tonight through Wednesday night
as the ridge in the Pacific and Northern Chihuahua builds east
into Southwest TX. Models drop a vort max south thru West TX on
Thursday around the eastern edge of the ridge. This could bring an
increasing chance of convection Thursday and Thursday night.
From Friday through early next week the ridge in the Eastern
Pacific will move ENE...and become centered over the Southern
Rockies/Central High Plains in response to a mid/upper trough in
the Gulf of Alaska. Since the ridge will be centered north of the
CWA it will leave the area in a deep layer easterly flow. Have
kept temps near normal...more in line with the European MOS
guidance. Felt that the GFS MOS guidance with temps above 100 for
Midland was too high for this type of pattern. Even though the
models don`t indicate it at this time...this type of pattern is
conducive for isolated aftn convection...especially if any
easterly waves move across the Gulf of Mexico.
Strobin
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 84 66 90 68 / 40 20 10 0
BIG SPRING TX 84 69 88 69 / 50 30 20 0
CARLSBAD NM 88 67 94 68 / 20 10 10 0
DRYDEN TX 88 70 93 72 / 50 40 20 10
FORT STOCKTON TX 87 68 93 70 / 40 20 20 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 83 65 88 67 / 10 10 10 0
HOBBS NM 84 64 90 67 / 20 10 10 10
MARFA TX 81 60 88 61 / 30 10 10 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 85 67 91 68 / 50 20 20 0
ODESSA TX 85 67 90 69 / 50 20 20 0
WINK TX 88 68 96 72 / 30 10 10 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
67/33
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1154 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
.AVIATION...
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER APPEARS WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO MOVING
INTO KPVW THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. ADDED A TEMPO
GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND MINOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTION. BAND
MAY SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO IMPACT KCDS AS WELL THOUGH SEEMS LESS
CERTAIN. USED HRRR CEILING AND VISIBILITY PRODUCTS TO SOME EXTENT
TO PLAN TIMING FOR LOW CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT. BOTH KCDS AND KPVW
SEEM MORE LIKELY TO SUFFER FROM AT LEAST LIGHT FOG. CANNOT RULE
OUT BRIEFLY GOING DOWN HARDER WITH CIGS AND VSBYS EARLY IN THE
MORNING BUT VERY HARD TO ASCERTAIN THREAT. STILL APPEARS LAYER
WILL LIFT AND BEGIN TO BREAK UP BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015/
AVIATION...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WEST TEXAS WILL MOVE EVER SLIGHTLY
TO THE EAST BY LATE TUESDAY. AN IMPULSE PASSING JUST EAST OF KLBB
AND SOUTH OF KCDS WAS CAUSING SHOWERS AND THUNDER OVER THE ROLLING
PLAINS ABOUT 90 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KLBB. THESE WILL SLOWLY
EDGE NORTH THIS EVENING BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF KCDS. AN OUTFLOW OR WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING WESTWARD ONTO
THE CAPROCK WAS ALSO CAUSING VERY ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS ABOUT 25
MILES SOUTHEAST OF KLBB EARLY THIS EVENING THAT SHOULD WEAKEN WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT KLBB. LIGHT
NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST
OVERNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST MVFR LEVEL CEILINGS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. THERE IS ALSO A RISK FOR
LOWER DECKS AND EVEN BRIEF FOG BUT OUR SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN
INCONSISTENT ON LOCATION AND TIMING OF SIGNALS SO WE WILL CONTINUE
TO WATCH FOR BETTER TRENDS AND NOT INDICATE A LOWER CEILING OR
VISIBILITY AT THIS TIME. LOW CLOUD DECK SHOULD LIFT AND START TO
BREAK UP BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON TUESDAY. RMCQUEEN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015/
SHORT TERM...
LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR SHOWS A VORT MAX SPINNING SOUTHWEST OF SJT
WITH INCREASING SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE BIG
COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. A FEW STORMS ALSO BEGINNING TO
FIRE FURTHER WEST OVER THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND ERN NM OUTSIDE
OF THE THICK CLOUD SHIELD. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SPIRAL AROUND THE WEST CENTRAL TX DISTURBANCE AS IT LIFTS SLOWLY
NORTH THROUGH THE EVENING. INSTABILITY HAS GROWN IN EXCESS OF 1000
J/KG THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A CAP DESPITE THICK
CLOUDS THAT HAVE REMAINED OVER THE REGION. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS VERY
WEAK AND WITH GENTLE LAPSE RATES IN PLACE EXPECT STORM LIFECYCLES TO
BE LIMITED. STILL WITH PWAT VALUES PUSHING 1.5 INCHES AND MOIST
PROFILES IN PLACE EXPECT SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH SUNRISE TUE AS
WEAK ASCENT CONTINUES IN PROXIMITY TO VORTICITY STRUNG OUT ACROSS
THE AREA AND CONVERGENCE ALONG ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE LIFTING NORTH.
DEEP E/NE FLOW THROUGH THE DAY TUE WILL MAINTAIN A NEARLY SATURATED
PROFILE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. FURTHER WEST
THOUGH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO EXERT MORE INFLUENCE AS
IT BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS OF
NM. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE AND REMNANT ASCENT TO THE EAST WILL
SET UP A BATTLEGROUND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE SOUTH PLAINS.
AS A RESULT HAVE TAPERED POPS MORE HASTILY FROM W-E ON TUE LEAVING
CHC POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA. EXPECT PREVAILING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY FOG TO BE SLOW TO GIVE WAY
TO SUNSHINE NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER IN THE AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER
AND DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP A RATHER SMALL RANGE IN TEMPS FROM W-E
FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.
LONG TERM...
WARM WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM...AT LEAST HERE
IN WEST TEXAS. LATE TUES/EARLY WED WILL BE RATHER WET FOR THE
ROLLING PLAINS AS A REMNANT SURFACE TROF WILL LINGER TO SUSTAIN
CONVECTION. PRECIP CHANCES ON THE CAPROCK WILL BE SOMEWHAT HINDERED
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. MID DAY WED INTO
THURS IS QUESTIONABLE AS FAR AS POPS GO FOR THE ROLLING PLAINS AS
THEY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF TROPICAL INVEST 91L. THERE
HAVE BEEN SOME HINTS PREVIOUSLY THAT WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MAY PUSH
FAR ENOUGH WEST TO TRIGGER MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO INDICATE THIS POSSIBILITY
WHILE THE GFS KEEPS PRECIP TO THE EAST THANKS TO AN OVERHEAD RIDGE.
FOR NOW LOW MENTION POPS WILL BE ADDED ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES. ADDITIONAL LOW MENTION POPS HAVE BEEN ADDED TO OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES FOR THURS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF HIGH TERRAIN CONVECTION IN NM PUSHING INTO THE FA
WITH THE AID OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL...AS WITH MANY
OTHER THINGS...DEPEND ON HOW FAR EAST THE RIDGE EXTENDS.
ACTIVITY APPEARS TO REMAIN QUIET THIS COMING WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE
DRAWS CLOSER. WHAT IS STILL A COIN TOSS WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
CONVECTION EARLY NEXT WEEK IN REGARDS TO A POSSIBLE FRONT PUSHING
DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO HAVE SOME CONFIDENCE IN
THE FROPA NEXT MON BUT HAS BACK OFF OF THE IDEA BY A HAIR. THE GFS
HAS ABANDONED THE IDEA ALL TOGETHER AND QUICKLY BUILDS A 594DM RIDGE
OVER THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF HOLD OFF ON THE
RIDGE UNTIL NEXT TUES AT THE EARLIEST. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL BE
KEPT IN FOR THE TIME BEING UNTIL THE MODELS RESOLVE THEIR ISSUES ON
WHAT THEY THINK WILL HAPPEN. UNTIL THEN WE CAN PUT THE PIROGUE BOAT
BACK IN STORAGE AND DO SOME OUTDOORS WORK WHILE THERE IS A HIATUS
IN RAIN. ALDRICH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 59 80 62 88 / 20 20 10 10
TULIA 61 80 63 87 / 30 20 10 10
PLAINVIEW 62 80 63 86 / 50 20 10 10
LEVELLAND 62 82 64 89 / 30 20 10 10
LUBBOCK 63 81 66 90 / 30 20 10 10
DENVER CITY 62 85 63 90 / 30 20 10 10
BROWNFIELD 63 82 64 91 / 30 20 10 10
CHILDRESS 66 82 69 89 / 40 40 20 30
SPUR 65 82 65 87 / 60 30 20 20
ASPERMONT 67 83 68 90 / 60 40 30 30
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1034 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW LOW
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
LOW ARE PUMPING IN DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S INTO WESTERN WI AND
SOUTHEAST MN WHERE ML CAPES ARE SURPASSING 1200 J/KG. ANTICIPATE
THAT STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FIRE AHEAD OF THE LOW AND TRANSLATE NE
ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WI LATER THIS AFTERNOON
OR EARLY THIS WEEKEND. FORECAST CONCERNS THEREFORE INCLUDE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND IMPACTS IN THE SHORT-TERM.
TONIGHT...THE LOW PRESSURE OVER MINNESOTA WILL TRAVEL EAST OVER
CENTRAL WI INTO NORTHEAST WI BY 12Z THU. THE SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE LOW WILL KEEP MOST OF ITS IMPACTS WEST OF THE
REGION UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING. THE FOCUS FOR THE EVENING WILL
RESIDE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NE FROM THE LOW INTO THE
WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY IMPACT AREAS NORTH OF A WAUSAU TO IRON
MOUNTAIN LINE THROUGH THE EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...CONCERNED THAT
SOME STORMS WILL MAKE A RUN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN BEFORE DIURNAL
INSTABILITY IS LOST. IF THIS OCCURS...STORMS MAY STILL CONTAIN GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL GIVEN THE DECENT WIND FIELDS ALOFT. WILL KEEP A
MENTION IN THE HWO. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM PROJECT AMPLE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL LINGER AHEAD OF THE LOW TO SUSTAIN
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. BUT WEAK FORCING SHOULD LEAD TO A DIURNAL
COMPONENT THAT WILL KEEP STORM INTENSITY IN CHECK. A MORE HUMID
NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTH.
THURSDAY...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OR STORMS SHOULD EXIT WITH THE LOW
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE BEHIND
THE LOW THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN CLOUDS WILL BUILD AHEAD OF A SECONDARY
FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHER RESOLUTION
MODELS ARE DEVELOPING SPOTTY SHOWERS ALONG THIS FRONT...BUT CANNOT
FIND HARDLY ANY CONVERGENCE ALONG IT. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
EXCEPT FOR FAR N-C WISCONSIN. HIGHS RISING TO AROUND 70 NORTH TO
THE UPPER 70S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN US THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTING UP SHOP SOUTH OF THE
AREA. THIS WILL BRING A FEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
THE AREA...ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS
WILL BE TIMING THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES.
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLIDES EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
COULD ALLOW FOR SOME FROST TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WI AS
TEMPS FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.
THE DRY WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END EITHER VERY LATE FRIDAY OR
MORE LIKELY ON SATURDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
APPROACH THE AREA. ONGOING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY MAKE A RUN AT
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING...BUT MODELS HAVE
SLOWED THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THIS ACTIVITY...WHICH WOULD LEAD
TO A ANOTHER ROUND DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
CAN DEVELOP. IF WE CAN CLEAR OUT FOR A PERIOD...SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES INCREASE WITH COLD FRONT/SHORTWAVE APPROACHING...DECENT
SHEAR (0-6KM BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 35-50 KTS)...PROVIDING FOR A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. SPC FOCUSES THE DAY 4 OUTLOOK MAINLY FROM
CENTRAL WI SOUTHWESTWARD WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY IS MOST LIKELY
TO RESIDE...BUT IF THE SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN AND THE BETTER
INSTABILITY (DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60 AND CAPE APPROACHING
2000 J/KG) CAN DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH/EAST THE THREAT AREA COULD BE
EXPANDED MORE INTO NE WI. WILL SLOW DOWN THE ONSET OF POPS FRIDAY
EVENING/NIGHT...KEEPING ONLY CHANCE POPS OVER FAR NORTHERN
WI...AND KEEP LIKELY POPS ON SATURDAY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. THE
REMNANTS OF BILL WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER PWATS ARE
FORECAST TO CLIMB BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0 INCHES ON SATURDAY...WHICH
WILL BRING A HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING THREAT.
ANY SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE AREA DURING SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL OUT FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE AREA...ACROSS IOWA...ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...
THAT WE SHOULD SNEAK OUT A DRY DAY ON SUNDAY. LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND MAYBE SOME STORMS EXIST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS MODELS SHOW WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING IN THE
ZONAL/WEST UPPER FLOW. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA THOUGH...CLOSER TO THE HUNG UP
BOUNDARY. MODELS DO SHOW THE BOUNDARY STARTING TO APPROACH THE
AREA LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. IF THIS OCCURS...MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN...WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN AVIATION FCST ISSUE THIS
EVENING. MODELS OFFERING VARYING IDEAS ON THAT. FIRST ROUND OF
PCPN HEADING IN FM THE W HAS PRETTY MUCH FALLEN APART. STILL
GETTING SOME INDICATIONS IT MAY REDEVELOP OVER E-C WI...SO WL KEEP
HIGHEST POPS /STILL CHC THOUGH/ THERE. ANOTHER SECOND CHC WL COME WITH
ANY REDEVELOPMENT NR THE LEAD FRONT...THOUGH NOT MUCH INDICATION
OF THAT HAPPENING YET. THE FINAL CHC WL BE WITH SECONDARY FRONT
DROPPING SWD TOMORROW AFTN. GIVEN IT/S CROSSING THE AREA ARND PEAK
HEATING...PCPN WITH THAT FEATURE MAY BE A BIT UNDERDONE ON THE
MODELS. OPTED TO CARRY MENTION OF SHRA TOMORROW AFTN IN ALL 6 TAF
SITES. THIS STILL IS NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE FCST.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......BERSCH
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
604 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW LOW
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
LOW ARE PUMPING IN DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S INTO WESTERN WI AND
SOUTHEAST MN WHERE ML CAPES ARE SURPASSING 1200 J/KG. ANTICIPATE
THAT STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FIRE AHEAD OF THE LOW AND TRANSLATE NE
ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WI LATER THIS AFTERNOON
OR EARLY THIS WEEKEND. FORECAST CONCERNS THEREFORE INCLUDE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND IMPACTS IN THE SHORT-TERM.
TONIGHT...THE LOW PRESSURE OVER MINNESOTA WILL TRAVEL EAST OVER
CENTRAL WI INTO NORTHEAST WI BY 12Z THU. THE SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE LOW WILL KEEP MOST OF ITS IMPACTS WEST OF THE
REGION UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING. THE FOCUS FOR THE EVENING WILL
RESIDE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NE FROM THE LOW INTO THE
WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY IMPACT AREAS NORTH OF A WAUSAU TO IRON
MOUNTAIN LINE THROUGH THE EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...CONCERNED THAT
SOME STORMS WILL MAKE A RUN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN BEFORE DIURNAL
INSTABILITY IS LOST. IF THIS OCCURS...STORMS MAY STILL CONTAIN GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL GIVEN THE DECENT WIND FIELDS ALOFT. WILL KEEP A
MENTION IN THE HWO. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM PROJECT AMPLE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL LINGER AHEAD OF THE LOW TO SUSTAIN
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. BUT WEAK FORCING SHOULD LEAD TO A DIURNAL
COMPONENT THAT WILL KEEP STORM INTENSITY IN CHECK. A MORE HUMID
NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTH.
THURSDAY...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OR STORMS SHOULD EXIT WITH THE LOW
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE BEHIND
THE LOW THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN CLOUDS WILL BUILD AHEAD OF A SECONDARY
FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHER RESOLUTION
MODELS ARE DEVELOPING SPOTTY SHOWERS ALONG THIS FRONT...BUT CANNOT
FIND HARDLY ANY CONVERGENCE ALONG IT. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
EXCEPT FOR FAR N-C WISCONSIN. HIGHS RISING TO AROUND 70 NORTH TO
THE UPPER 70S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN US THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTING UP SHOP SOUTH OF THE
AREA. THIS WILL BRING A FEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
THE AREA...ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS
WILL BE TIMING THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES.
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLIDES EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
COULD ALLOW FOR SOME FROST TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WI AS
TEMPS FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.
THE DRY WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END EITHER VERY LATE FRIDAY OR
MORE LIKELY ON SATURDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
APPROACH THE AREA. ONGOING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY MAKE A RUN AT
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING...BUT MODELS HAVE
SLOWED THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THIS ACTIVITY...WHICH WOULD LEAD
TO A ANOTHER ROUND DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
CAN DEVELOP. IF WE CAN CLEAR OUT FOR A PERIOD...SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES INCREASE WITH COLD FRONT/SHORTWAVE APPROACHING...DECENT
SHEAR (0-6KM BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 35-50 KTS)...PROVIDING FOR A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. SPC FOCUSES THE DAY 4 OUTLOOK MAINLY FROM
CENTRAL WI SOUTHWESTWARD WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY IS MOST LIKELY
TO RESIDE...BUT IF THE SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN AND THE BETTER
INSTABILITY (DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60 AND CAPE APPROACHING
2000 J/KG) CAN DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH/EAST THE THREAT AREA COULD BE
EXPANDED MORE INTO NE WI. WILL SLOW DOWN THE ONSET OF POPS FRIDAY
EVENING/NIGHT...KEEPING ONLY CHANCE POPS OVER FAR NORTHERN
WI...AND KEEP LIKELY POPS ON SATURDAY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. THE
REMNANTS OF BILL WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER PWATS ARE
FORECAST TO CLIMB BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0 INCHES ON SATURDAY...WHICH
WILL BRING A HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING THREAT.
ANY SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE AREA DURING SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL OUT FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE AREA...ACROSS IOWA...ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...
THAT WE SHOULD SNEAK OUT A DRY DAY ON SUNDAY. LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND MAYBE SOME STORMS EXIST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS MODELS SHOW WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING IN THE
ZONAL/WEST UPPER FLOW. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA THOUGH...CLOSER TO THE HUNG UP
BOUNDARY. MODELS DO SHOW THE BOUNDARY STARTING TO APPROACH THE
AREA LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. IF THIS OCCURS...MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN...WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 557 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION IS THE MAIN AVIATION FCST ISSUE THIS
EVENING. MODELS OFFERED VARYING IDEAS ON THAT. LOOKING AT WX
FEATURES...THERE SEEM TO BE 3 OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN ACRS THE FCST
AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS. THE FIRST WL BE WITH CONVECTION NOW
SHIFTG INTO THE AREA FM WRN WI. INSTABILITY NOT AS GREAT AS TO THE
WEST...BUT AT LEAST SOME SHRA LIKELY TO MAKE IT ACRS THE AREA THIS
EVENING/TNGT. ACCOUNTED FOR THIS IN THE TAFS. THE SECOND CHC WL BE
WITH ANY REDEVELOPMENT NR THE LEAD FRONT. SUPPORT FOR THIS IS NOT
AS GREAT...PLUS FROPA WL BE LATE AT NGT. LEFT PCPN WITH THIS
FEATURE OUT FOR ALL BUT THE FAR N. THE FINAL CHC WL BE WITH
SECONDARY FRONT DROPPING SWD TOMORROW AFTN. GIVEN IT/S CROSSING
THE AREA ARND PEAK HEATING...PCPN WITH THAT FEATURE MAY BE A BIT
UNDERDONE ON THE MODELS. OPTED TO CARRY MENTION OF SHRA TOMORROW
AFTN IN ALL 6 TAF SITES. OVERALL...THOUGH...THIS IS NOT A HIGH
CONFIDENCE FCST AND IT MAY VERY WELL NEED ADJUSTMENT LATER TNGT.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......BERSCH
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
600 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
CONVECTION HAS BEEN DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO
CENTRAL IOWA ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY AND AHEAD OF WEAK
SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THIS ACTIVITY HAS FORMED IN
AN AXIS OF ABOUT 1000 J/KG OF ML CAPE WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40
TO 45 KNOTS. THE 17.18Z RAP SUGGESTS THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
VERY SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND THAT
THE CAPE AXIS WILL ESSENTIALLY REMAIN IN PLACE. THE RAP ALSO
INDICATES THE BEST SHEAR IS OCCURRING RIGHT NOW AND THIS SHOULD
THEN DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON TO 35 KNOTS OR LESS IN THE 0-6 KM
LAYER ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 AND 25 KNOTS OR LESS OVER
THE ENTIRE AREA IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER. MOST OF THE HI-RES MESO
MODELS SHOW A TREND OF CONTINUED EXPANSION OF THE STORMS THROUGH
ABOUT 21Z OR 22Z AND THEN SHOW A DIMINISHING TREND AS THE SHEAR
DROPS OFF. THE RAP CONTINUES TO SHOW A VERY TALL AND SKINNY CAPE
PROFILE IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR KRST SO BELIEVE LOCAL
DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WITH AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT ONE OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME
SUB SEVERE HAIL OR WIND GUSTS. THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH
HELPING THIS ACTIVITY WAS COMING ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA AND WILL
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. THE RAP ALSO
CONTINUES TO SHOW ONLY WEAK FORCING FROM THIS WAVE WHICH SHOULD
HELP TO KEEP THE CONVECTION MORE ON THE SCATTERED SIDE. PLAN TO
START THE EARLY EVENING WITH AROUND A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OVER THE
NORTHWEST AHEAD OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY AND THEN QUICKLY TREND
THIS DOWN TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE EVENING
AS THE CAPE DIMINISHES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OUT OF CANADA THURSDAY AND DRIFT
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS HIGH WILL
PROVIDE A SHORT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN ZONAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO COME ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THE 17.12Z NAM AND GFS INDICATE THIS WAVE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME WEAK PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB
LAYER. THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE SLOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD INDICATED SO HAVE LIMITED THE RAIN CHANCES
TO THE 20 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH THE WEAK PV ADVECTION SHOULD MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING WEAK TO POSSIBLY SOME
MODERATE FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 1000-700 MB LAYER AND THEN WEAK
ABOVE THAT UP TO 500 MB. THE ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE ON THE 305K
SURFACE AHEAD OF THE WAVE LOOKS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 3
UBAR/S. FOR NOW WILL STAY WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH 50 TO 60
PERCENT RAIN CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH IN THIS SOLUTION GIVEN THE LACK PV ADVECTION AND THE NEUTRAL
TO SLIGHTLY POSITIVE TILT TO THE WAVE. AFTER THAT...THE ZONAL FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS COMING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOME RAIN
CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES CENTERED ON MONDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
BROKEN LINE OF TSRA TRACKING EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AT EARLY
EVENING...FIRED BY INSTABILITY AND A COLD FRONT. RADAR INDICATORS
POINT TO THEM BEING HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS...WITH SMALL HAIL IN THE
STRONGER ONES. SOME ENHANCED GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE. THE BULK OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE PAST KRST BY 00Z...AND LIKELY KLSE AROUND 02Z.
RAP/HRRR/NAM12 RH FIELDS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS THEN POINT TO AN MVFR
DECK OF STRATUS STICKING AROUND/DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...POTENTIALLY
STICKING AROUND A FEW HOURS PAST 12Z THU. GOING TO PAINT THE TAFS IN
THIS DIRECTION...AND MONITOR TRENDS. CONFIDENCE NOT OVERLY HIGH
HERE...BUT ENOUGH INDICATORS THAT FAVOR INCLUDING THE LOWER CIGS.
EXPECT A BREAK UP OF THE CIGS - IF THEY DEVELOP - BY MID MORNING THU
AS THE AREA GRADUALLY COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
601 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN
GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT HAS
SETTLEDOVER THE OHIO VALLEY. DIURNAL CU POPPED LATE THIS MORNING
OVER CENTRAL AND NE WI...WHILE NORTH-CENTRAL WI HAS ENJOYED MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS. LOOKING UPSTREAM...CLOUDS AND RAIN ARE SPREADING
EAST OVER THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BLACK HILLS. AS THESE CLOUDS
AND RAIN SPREAD EAST...PRECIP TRENDS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN.
TONIGHT...RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE UPPER JET COMBINED WITH MID-LEVEL
THETAE ADVECTION WILL PUSH CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN AND MOST OF
CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE EVENING. SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE POINTS
TOWARDS THE PRECIP DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES INTO DRIER AND STABLE
AIR CLOSER TO THE SURFACE HIGH. SOME OF THIS RAIN WILL TRY TO
MAKE A RUN INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE...AND WILL LEAVE A
SMALL CHANCE IN THE FORECAST. UNDER INCREASING CLOUDS...LOWS IN
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S.
WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AS AN
INVERTED TROUGH TIGHTENS OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. GUIDANCE PEGS
THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN AND ALSO SNEAKING UP INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN AND THE WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA. AS A RESULT...HAVE
BACKED OFF PRECIP CHANCES EXCEPT FOR VILAS COUNTY WHERE MAINTAINED
LIKELY WORDING. THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN US WILL BRING SEVERAL SYSTEMS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPS LOOK TO
REMAIN WITHIN 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE/BELOW NORMAL.
THE FIRST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FROM WEDNESDAY
EVENING INTO THURSDAY...AS A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. TIME OF DAY COMBINED WITH OVERALL
INSTABILITY STAYING LOW (UNDER 500 J/KG) SHOULD KEEP THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT DOWN...BUT DECENT 0-6KM SHEAR OF 35-50 KTS ALONG
WITH A SMALL RIBBON OF INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT COULD PRODUCE
AT LEAST SOME BRIEF ORGANIZED STORM ACTIVITY. SPC CONTINUES TO
HIGHLIGHT CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WITH A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. CHANCE POPS LOOK GOOD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES
PLANNED. PWATS OVER AN INCH COULD BRING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
ON THURSDAY...THERE WILL BE LINGERING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND SHORTWAVE CROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING AS THE FRONT COMPLETES ITS
PASSAGE OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION
SHOULD KEEP ANY ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON ISOLATED AT BEST.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
THURSDAY EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST...PRODUCING CONVECTION ACROSS
MINNESOTA ON FRIDAY...WHICH WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHERN WI LATE IN
THE DAY...AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...STILL HARD TO PIN DOWN THE DETAILS...INCLUDING THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER...AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND CLOUDS
(LIMITING INSTABILITY) WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE NEW CONVECTION
WILL BE ABLE TO FIRE. WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS ON SATURDAY WHEN
MODELS SEEM TO POINT TO THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY OVER THE
AREA. THE REMNANTS OF BILL WILL ATTEMPT TO REACH WI THIS
WEEKEND...BUT THE ZONAL FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THIS
MOISTURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THAT SAID...PWATS BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.5
INCHES WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.
IF THE BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH OF THE AREA...SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY COULD TURN OUT TO BE MAINLY DRY. WILL LEAN THE FORECAST
THAT WAY AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS IS THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO...BUT MODELS STILL SHOWING THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS OR
STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCES MOVING EASTWARD IN THE
ZONAL FLOW. WILL KEEP SOME LOWER POPS IN THIS PERIOD TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 601 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN SEASONABLY STG WLY FLOW ALOFT WL CONT TO
CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES RGN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. HIGH
AND MIDDLE CLDS WITH ONE SUCH FEATURE WL SPREAD ACRS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. LEADING AREA OF RN OVER MN WL PROBABLY DISSIPATE AS IT
NEARS THE RGN. WL CARRY SPRINKLES AT RHI TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
REMNANTS. SOME RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THE PCPN IS EXPECTED WED. THAT
COULD AFFECT N-C WI TOMORROW AFTN...BUT WL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER 00Z THU FOR THE REST OF THE TAF SITES.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......BERSCH
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN
GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT HAS
SETTLEDOVER THE OHIO VALLEY. DIURNAL CU POPPED LATE THIS MORNING
OVER CENTRAL AND NE WI...WHILE NORTH-CENTRAL WI HAS ENJOYED MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS. LOOKING UPSTREAM...CLOUDS AND RAIN ARE SPREADING
EAST OVER THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BLACK HILLS. AS THESE CLOUDS
AND RAIN SPREAD EAST...PRECIP TRENDS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN.
TONIGHT...RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE UPPER JET COMBINED WITH MID-LEVEL
THETAE ADVECTION WILL PUSH CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN AND MOST OF
CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE EVENING. SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE POINTS
TOWARDS THE PRECIP DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES INTO DRIER AND STABLE
AIR CLOSER TO THE SURFACE HIGH. SOME OF THIS RAIN WILL TRY TO
MAKE A RUN INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE...AND WILL LEAVE A
SMALL CHANCE IN THE FORECAST. UNDER INCREASING CLOUDS...LOWS IN
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S.
WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AS AN
INVERTED TROUGH TIGHTENS OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. GUIDANCE PEGS
THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN AND ALSO SNEAKING UP INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN AND THE WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA. AS A RESULT...HAVE
BACKED OFF PRECIP CHANCES EXCEPT FOR VILAS COUNTY WHERE MAINTAINED
LIKELY WORDING. THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN US WILL BRING SEVERAL SYSTEMS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPS LOOK TO
REMAIN WITHIN 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE/BELOW NORMAL.
THE FIRST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FROM WEDNESDAY
EVENING INTO THURSDAY...AS A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. TIME OF DAY COMBINED WITH OVERALL
INSTABILITY STAYING LOW (UNDER 500 J/KG) SHOULD KEEP THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT DOWN...BUT DECENT 0-6KM SHEAR OF 35-50 KTS ALONG
WITH A SMALL RIBBON OF INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT COULD PRODUCE
AT LEAST SOME BRIEF ORGANIZED STORM ACTIVITY. SPC CONTINUES TO
HIGHLIGHT CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WITH A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. CHANCE POPS LOOK GOOD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES
PLANNED. PWATS OVER AN INCH COULD BRING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
ON THURSDAY...THERE WILL BE LINGERING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND SHORTWAVE CROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING AS THE FRONT COMPLETES ITS
PASSAGE OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION
SHOULD KEEP ANY ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON ISOLATED AT BEST.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
THURSDAY EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST...PRODUCING CONVECTION ACROSS
MINNESOTA ON FRIDAY...WHICH WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHERN WI LATE IN
THE DAY...AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...STILL HARD TO PIN DOWN THE DETAILS...INCLUDING THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER...AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND CLOUDS
(LIMITING INSTABILITY) WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE NEW CONVECTION
WILL BE ABLE TO FIRE. WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS ON SATURDAY WHEN
MODELS SEEM TO POINT TO THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY OVER THE
AREA. THE REMNANTS OF BILL WILL ATTEMPT TO REACH WI THIS
WEEKEND...BUT THE ZONAL FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THIS
MOISTURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THAT SAID...PWATS BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.5
INCHES WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.
IF THE BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH OF THE AREA...SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY COULD TURN OUT TO BE MAINLY DRY. WILL LEAN THE FORECAST
THAT WAY AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS IS THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO...BUT MODELS STILL SHOWING THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS OR
STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCES MOVING EASTWARD IN THE
ZONAL FLOW. WILL KEEP SOME LOWER POPS IN THIS PERIOD TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
SCATTERED 4000 FT CLOUDS WILL PASS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS WILL
DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING...WHILE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN AND
LOWER FROM THE WEST. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. MODELS TRENDING TOWARDS BRINGING IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WI BY MIDDAY WHILE LEAVING THE REST
OF THE AREA DRY. SO KEPT PRECIP OUT OF THE TAFS THOUGH IT WILL BE A
CLOSE CALL AT RHI.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......BERSCH
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1130 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 948 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2015
CONVECTION STRENGTH IS DWINDLING THIS EVENING AS INSTABILITY
WANES. ASIDE FROM A TORNADO PRODUCING THUNDERSTORM EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON WEST OF ROCK RIVER...CONVECTION ON THE WHOLE HAD
DIFFICULTY BECOMING SFC BASED IN THE COOLER DAY 1 OF THE POST-
FRONTAL AIR MASS. ASIDE FROM SOME HEAVY RAIN...THE ONGOING COMPLEX
MOVING ACROSS LARAMIE/PLATTE COUNTIES WAS DOING LITTLE TO BE
CONCERNED WITH FROM A SEVERE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE. SO HAVE OPTED TO
CANCEL THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. WV IMAGERY DEPICTS WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE NR THE WY/ID
STATELINE AT THIS HOUR. THIS FTR WILL PUSH THRU NRN/CENTRAL
WYOMING BY SUNRISE AND REACH THE DAKOTAS BY MIDDAY TUESDAY.
UPSTREAM RADARS AND SATELLITE PIX SHOW SEVERAL ADDL THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CWFA DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. 00Z NAM DATA CONTINUES TO POINT AT LEAST AT THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
STATE. SO...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES TO BE JUSTIFIED.
INITIAL LOOK AT 00Z DATA SUGGESTS TOMORROW TO BE ACTIVE AS
MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2015
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF OUR
SOUTHEAST WY ZONES EXCEPT NIOBRARA COUNTY THROUGH 11 PM. MLCAPE IS
UP TO 1000-1500 J/KG ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. BULK
SHEAR IS AROUND 40 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS LESS UNSTABLE (CAPE
LESS THAN 1000 J/KG) ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS WHERE LOW CLOUDS
HAVE BEEN MORE PERSISTENT. CONVECTION HAS BROKEN OUT OVER
CARBON/ALBANY COUNTIES WITH A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SVR CELLS.
THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW THIS CONVECTION EVOLVES THROUGH THE
EVENING AS IT MOVES INTO AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
THE HRRR DOES INDICATE SOME STRONGER STORMS THROUGH 03Z OVER
SOUTHEAST WY BEFORE THE ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE CLUSTERED AND
MULTICELLULAR ESPECIALLY OVER CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA COUNTIES. ALL
OF THE MODELS SHOW A GOOD AMOUNT OF QPF THROUGH SUNRISE TUESDAY IN
THE NORTHERN ZONES AND NORTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST WY. THIS IS WHERE
THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING
SHORTWAVE. ALTHOUGH THE STEERING FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY SLOW
(20-25 KTS)...WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING SINCE SOME OF
THE EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE CELLS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY
RAIN. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY LATE TONIGHT.
THE DECENT RISK FOR SVR STORMS TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
CONTINUES TO LOOK ON TRACK FOR TUESDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE MUCH
BETTER ON TUES OVER THE PLAINS AND ESPECIALLY THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. THE SFC TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE WY-NE BORDER
DURING THE AFTN AND THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE TRIGGER FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION. THE COMBINATION OF BULK SHEAR OF 45-50 KTS AND CAPES
NEAR 1500 J/KG WILL PROMOTE A GOOD CHANCE OF STORMS TO BECOME
SUPERCELLULAR. THINKING IS LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT AS
LLVL SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK AND HODOGRAPHS ARE STRAIGHT. SPC HAS
MUCH OF THE PLAINS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR WEATHER ON TUES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2015
WEDNESDAY...SOUTHEASTERLY LLVL FLOW WILL BE DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTN WITH GOOD INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. COULD SEE ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF STRONG TO SVR STORMS
GIVEN THAT BULK SHEAR IS 35-40 KTS.
THURSDAY...MOSTLY DRY AND QUITE WARM WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT PRODUCING ENOUGH CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
FRIDAY...FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS OUT WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALOFT MOVING
ACROSS...THOUGH WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...MINIMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY...MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES ACROSS AND WITH
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND CORRESPONDING
DECREASE IN WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WILL SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
SUNDAY...HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE WITH FLOW TURNING NORTHWEST AND WITH
DRIER LOW AND MID LEVELS...WILL SEE A DECREASE IN AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AREAL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2015
WYOMING TAFS...AREAS OF LOCALIZED IFR AND MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES IN FOG THROUGH 15Z...OTHERWISE VFR WITH SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
LOCALIZED MVFR AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS.
NEBRASKA TAFS...AREAS OF IFR AND MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THROUGH 15Z...ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LOCALIZED MVFR AND
WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2015
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS
AND EVENINGS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 15-20 PERCENT TO
THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON THESE DAYS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR WYZ101>103.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CAH
SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...CLH/RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...ZF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
347 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT OVER WESTERN NEW YORK
AND PENNSYLVANIA TODAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...AS A COOLER
AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT...A VARIETY OF CLOUD TYPES REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION WITH SCT-BKN LOWER STRATUS FROM I90 SOUTHWARD AND A CANOPY
OF BKN-OVC HIGH CLOUDS THAT CONTINUE TO THICKEN. SO WE WILL GO
WITH A MOCLDY FORECAST THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES ARE HAVE STEADY OFF THE PAST COUPE OF HOURS AS WE
WILL KEEP NEARLY STEADY VALUES OVERNIGHT. WE WILL ALSO GO WITH A DRY
OVERNIGHT WITH JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY
COVER BASED ON CURRENT DATA AND TRENDS.
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...MOISTURE PROFILES WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AND EMBEDDED WITHIN A FAST WEST-EAST ZONAL FLOW AS
CLEARLY SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR IMAGERY...A FEW SUBTLE SHORT WAVES
WHICH WE CAN NOT RULE OUT WIDELY SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY. THE LATEST HRRR REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS COINCIDES
WITH THESE IDEAS AS WE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE DAY. DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE...WE
WILL FORECAST TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.
COLD FRONT PROGRESSING THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA IS FORECAST TO
TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND UPSTATE NY THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL ASSIST WITH ENHANCING THE LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR MORE SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES REMAIN RATHER POOR AND DUE TO THE NOCTURNAL TIMING OF
FROPA ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWFA...SEVERE POTENTIAL
LOOKS VERY LOW. LATEST COORDINATION FROM SPC ALSO SUGGESTS A LOW
END MARGINAL RISK WEST AND NORTHWEST OF ALBANY SO WE WILL MENTION
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH MAINLY SHOWERS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. MOS NUMBERS ARE RATHER SIMILAR AS A BLENDED
APPROACH WAS UTILIZED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRIDAY...AS MODEL TRENDS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE FROPA...WE
WILL RETAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF I90 IN THE MORNING.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING
THE MORNING HOURS WITH FROPA AS IMPROVING SKY COVERAGE COMMENCES FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. THE TERRAIN MAY HOLD ONTO SOME CLOUD COVERAGE BUT
EVENTUALLY THE SUBSIDENCE SEEN IN THE OMEGA FIELDS WITHIN THE
NCEP MODEL SUITE WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE. H850 TEMPS COOL
BACK INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS BY THE END OF THE DAY WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS SUGGEST WE WILL HAVE THE
OPPORTUNITY TO TAP INTO HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT FOR SURFACE
WIND GUSTS NEAR 20KTS.
A COOL AND PLEASANT EVENING IS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT WITH IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EVOLVING AS THE CANADIAN SFC HIGH
MOVES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND. H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +6C TO
+8C RANGE FROM THE I90 CORRIDOR AND POINTS NORTH...AND +8C TO
+10C TO THE SOUTH. LOWS WILL BE IN THE U40S TO L50S FROM THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION SOUTH...AND 40-45F TO THE
NORTH...PERHAPS A FEW ISOLD U30S IN THE SRN DACKS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY ZONAL UPPER PATTERN ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF FLAT
UPPER RIDGING IN THE EASTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE THE VERY CHANGEABLE
WEATHER FROM DAY TO DAY...THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS PATTERN
OF WHAT SEEMS TO BE ALTERNATING ONE OR TWO DRY DAYS THEN ONE OR TWO
WET DAYS SHOULD CONTINUE AS WEST MEAN FLOW KEEPS FEEDING UPPER
ENERGY AND MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION EVERY DAY OR TWO.
APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY SATURDAY NIGHT MAY INTERACT WITH
THE REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM AND PROVIDE GENERALLY UNSETTLED
WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO
INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT...REACHING LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY (AROUND 70
PERCENT)...THEN DECREASING POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY. IT WILL BECOME QUITE HUMID DURING THIS PERIOD WITH DEWPOINTS
RISING INTO THE 60S IN MOST PLACES. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 70S TO
LOWER 80S.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY...BUT WITH LINGERING TROFINESS
ALOFT...A SHOWER OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...SO HAVE KEPT
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. BECOMING LESS HUMID
MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER AND LOWS 50 TO 60.
ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL AFFECT OUR REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO HAVE FORECAST NO HIGHER THAN 30
PERCENT POPS DURING THIS PERIOD. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE 70 TO 80.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY
AND BRING PLEASANT WEATHER. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 60S AND 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM...HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES. ONLY SOME HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH A LOWER VFR STRATOCU DECK
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. THE CLOUDINESS AND DRY AIR ACROSS THE
REGION SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AND INTO EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING. THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER...WHILE THE
LOWER CLOUD DECK PERSISTS ACROSS THE SOUTH. AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST...THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AT THE TAF SITES LATE THURSDAY AFTN...AND HAVE INDICATED
VCSH AT THE TAF SITES STARTING 20Z/21Z...AND A FEW HOURS EARLIER
(16Z) AT KPOU. BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z FRIDAY...THE SHOWERS WILL
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND HAVE FORECAST MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF
SITES DUE TO SHOWERS. TSTMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT THE CHANCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
MAINLY CALM CONDITIONS THROUGH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE...THEN
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF AROUND
15 KTS AT KALB. THESE WIND CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDS ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST INTO TONIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF
A COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DECREASE TO 45 TO 65 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON. THE RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO CLOSE TO 100
PERCENT TONIGHT.
THE WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 5-10 MPH THIS
MORNING...AND BE SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THEN SHIFT TO THE W TO NW AT 5 TO 15 MPH THURSDAY NIGHT. A
NORTHERLY BREEZE FRIDAY WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER LEVELS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RECEDE INTO
THURSDAY...WITH SOME POSSIBLE RISES ON THE WEEKEND.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM ONE TENTH TO A THIRD AN INCH
WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION.
WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...AS THE MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL ENTITY BILL MAY IMPACT
PARTS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
338 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
.DISCUSSION...
...SLIGHTLY HIGHER STORM CHANCES INTERIOR TODAY BUT STILL HOT...
TODAY-TONIGHT...DEEP EASTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
THE MAIN CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO INTERIOR/WESTERN SECTIONS OF
THE PENINSULA. ONE THING THAT WILL BE A LITTLE DIFFERENT TODAY IS
THAT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS SHOWING MOISTENING ALOFT ADVECTING IN
FROM THE ATLANTIC. AS A RESULT...THE GFS INDICATES A LITTLE HIGHER
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND EXPECT LESS MIXING DOWN OF DRIER
AIR DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA WILL
PROVIDE LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. WITH A LITTLE HIGHER MOISTURE...
CONVECTIVE INITIATION ON THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD BE A LITTLE CLOSER
TO THE EAST COAST...THOUGH REMAINING DRY ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.
MOS POPS ARE LESS THAN 15 PERCENT EVERYWHERE TODAY AND RISE TO
20-35 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE MODEL IS EVIDENTLY KEYING ON LATE DAY
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WITH CONVECTION LINGERING PAST SUNSET. WILL
TREND POPS CLOSER TO THE LOCAL WRF AND HRRR MODELS. STILL EXPECT
MOSTLY DRY NEAR/EAST OF I-95 BUT WILL CARRY 20 POPS FOR INLAND
COASTAL SECTIONS AND 30 PERCENT FOR THE INTERIOR COUNTIES. THE
MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW SOME PUSH BACK OF CONVECTION THIS
EVENING...PROBABLY DUE TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PROPAGATION...SINCE
STEERING WINDS ARE LIGHT AND EASTERLY. SO WILL HAVE SMALL POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH HALF THROUGH LATE EVENING.
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS AND HEAT INDICES. NOTED THAT THE
PIERSON FAWN SITE REACHED 99 DEGREES YESTERDAY...BUT WITH A LITTLE
MORE CONVECTION...HAVE CAPPED MAX TEMPS AT 97 WHICH IS IN
AGREEMENT WITH MOS. MAX HEAT INDICES SHOULD TOP OUT 100-103 LIKE
YESTERDAY.
FRI-SUN...STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SE U.S. WILL ONLY
SLIGHTLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTH AS MODELS SHOW REMNANTS OF BILL
SHIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM SRN MO/NRN AK FRI TO THE NRN MID
ATL COAST INTO LATE WEEKEND. THIS RIDGE WILL ALLOW ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION. ISO-SCT CONVECTION MAY
BRING SOME RELIEF LATER IN THE AFT MAINLY FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS
AS EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND AND COLLIDES WITH THE WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE. HOWEVER HIGHS STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW
90S ALONG THE COAST TO MID 90S INLAND WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO
100-105. SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
LATE EVENING AND LOOK UNLIKELY TO PUSH BACK TOWARD THE COAST.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S.
MON-WED...WEAK SFC TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES SHIFTS SFC
RIDGE AXIS TOWARD THE SRN FL PENINSULA INTO NEXT WEEK BUT LOW LEVEL
WINDS LOOK LIGHT ENOUGH FOR SEA BREEZE TO MOVE INLAND EACH AFT WITH
BEST AFT RAIN CHANCES REMAINING OVER THE INTERIOR EACH AFT. GFS
INDICATING SOME DRIER AIR WORKING IN WHICH COULD LIMIT POPS...BUT
FOR NOW WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS UP TO 30-40% IN THE FORECAST FOR
INLAND LOCATIONS. HEAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO PERSIST WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW 90S COAST TO MID 90S INTERIOR.
&&
.AVIATION...COASTAL SITES SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR BRIEF
MVFR WITH DAYTIME HEATING CLOUD BASES. THE INTERIOR TERMINALS
HAVE A HIGHER CHANCE AT EXPERIENCING A STORM COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
AND HAVE MENTIONED VICINITY THUNDER THERE STARTING AROUND 20Z.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS NEARBY WILL PROVIDE A MOSTLY
GENTLE SOUTHERLY BREEZE. THE SEA BREEZE WILL PICK UP TO 12-13
KNOTS AND THEN A SLIGHT NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE
IS INDICATED OFFSHORE FROM THE CAPE NORTHWARD TO 12-15 KNOTS.
STILL SEAS WILL BE AT OR BELOW 3 FEET.
FRI-MON...SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
CENTRAL FL THROUGH THE PERIOD. S/SW WINDS LATE IN THE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING WILL BECOME S/SE INTO THE AFT AS EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS AND MOVES INLAND EACH AFT. WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 1-3 FEET. AFT CONVECTION OVER
LAND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH THREAT
FOR OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS VERY LOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 93 75 92 74 / 10 20 20 10
MCO 96 76 95 74 / 30 30 40 20
MLB 91 75 90 74 / 10 10 20 10
VRB 91 75 91 74 / 10 10 10 10
LEE 97 77 95 77 / 30 30 50 30
SFB 96 77 94 76 / 20 30 40 20
ORL 96 77 95 76 / 30 30 40 20
FPR 91 73 91 72 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LASCODY
LONG TERM....WEITLICH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
329 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
08Z/3AM RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. WITH MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
STORM BILL FLOWING NORTHEASTWARD AND A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO
THE NORTHWEST KILX CWA TODAY...THINK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. 06Z NAM INDICATES
FRONT WILL REACH A BLOOMINGTON TO RUSHVILLE LINE BY LATE
AFTERNOON...ESSENTIALLY ENDING ANY RAIN CHANCES TO THE NORTH.
FURTHER SOUTH...HIGHEST POPS APPEAR TO BE CONCENTRATED ON BOTH THE
NAM AND HRRR ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF A CHAMPAIGN TO SPRINGFIELD LINE.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE TRACK OF BILL AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF THE KILX
CWA. 00Z JUNE 18 MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT...SHOWING
A FURTHER SOUTH TRACK AND A MORE COMPACT AREA OF ASSOCIATED PRECIP.
MODEL CONSENSUS TAKES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA
THIS EVENING...TO THE OZARKS BY FRIDAY EVENING...THEN INTO SOUTHERN
INDIANA BY SATURDAY. GIVEN THIS PARTICULAR TRACK...THE SOUTHEAST
CWA WILL BE FAVORED FOR THE HEAVIEST RAIN FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. BASED ON MODEL TRENDS AND THE PRESENCE OF
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ON THE N/NW SIDE OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM...HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. HAVE FOCUSED LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70...WITH CHANCE POPS AS FAR NORTHWEST AS THE
ILLINOIS RIVER. FURTHER NORTHWEST...HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A DRY
FORECAST IN THE GALESBURG/LACON AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH
UNSEASONABLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES...ANY
STORMS THAT OCCUR DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY HIGH
RAINFALL RATES AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. EXPECTED RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 2 TO 2.50 RANGE SOUTH OF I-
70...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE LIKELY. DESPITE
EXPECTED HEAVY RAINFALL...OPTED NOT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT
THIS TIME...MAINLY DUE TO THE FACT THAT THIS AREA MISSED THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL FROM A COUPLE DAYS AGO. THERE ARE ALSO SOME SIGNS
THAT THE SYSTEM COULD TRACK EVEN FURTHER SOUTH...SHIFTING THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA.
ONCE BILL DEPARTS...LINGERING MORNING RAIN ACROSS THE E/SE WILL COME
TO AN END BY MIDDAY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE BOARD SATURDAY AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BRINGING RAIN
CHANCES BACK INTO THE PICTURE.
AFTER THAT...A VERY WARM AND OCCASIONALLY WET WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS
TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. AS WAS
FIRST SEEN WITH THE GFS LAST NIGHT...LATEST ECMWF NOW ADVERTISES A
WEAKER UPPER RIDGE NEXT WEEK...WHICH KEEPS THE PREVAILING BAROCLINIC
ZONE IN OR CLOSE TO THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. HAVE
INCLUDED LOW CHANCE POPS ACCORDINGLY. HAVE TEMPORARILY PUSHED POPS
NORTH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AS RIDGE BECOMES MOST
DOMINANT...BEFORE IT BREAKS DOWN AND FRONT SAGS BACK SOUTHWARD BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IN THE LAST FEW HOURS HAS HELPED SUPPRESS THE
PRECIP THE LAST HALF OF THE EVENING. HOWEVER, A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND MOISTURE STREAMING TOWARD IL
FROM THE REMNANTS OF BILL WILL CAUSE INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS AS EARLY AS 10Z-11Z IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. THE CENTER
OF CIRCULATION OF BILL IN FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS IS FORECAST TO VERY
SLOWLY ADVANCE ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND MISSOURI, BEFORE IT PICKS UP
SPEED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS IL.
HRRR INDICATES A WEAKENING OF THE SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST BEFORE THEY REACH PIA LATE TONIGHT. IT THEN SHOWS A
BROAD REGION OF RAIN/STORMS DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE LATER THIS
MORNING. THE RAP IS MORE GENEROUS WITH PRECIP DEVELOPMENT AS EARLY
AS 07-08Z TONIGHT, AND EXPANDING CHANCES THROUGH EARLY MORNING
BEFORE DIMINISHING CHANCES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE OPPOSITE
SOLUTIONS LOWERS CONFIDENCE ON ANY DISTINCT PERIOD OF RAIN/STORMS
FOR ANY TERMINAL SITE. WE INCLUDED VCSH FOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
THE MORNING, THEN WENT WITH VCTS FOR THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THE
AIRMASS IS PRIMED FOR AFTERNOON INSTABILITY STORMS, AND WITH A
FRONT STALLING IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING, CANT RULE
OUT ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
WE DRIED OUT THE EARLY EVENING, BUT THERE IS A SIGNAL IN THE
MODELS FOR LATE EVENING SHOWERS DEVELOPING WELL AHEAD OF THE
REMNANTS OF BILL. WE INCLUDED A VCSH FOR THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
WE KEPT NEARLY ALL VFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW, WITH MVFR EXPECTED
DURING ANY HEAVIER RAINS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN SW THROUGH THE MORNING, THEN SHIFT MORE W-SW BY
AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO 10-14KT.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...BARNES
AVIATION...SHIMON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1155 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
THE BULK OF THE FORCING FOR PRECIP HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST FOR THE
TIME BEING. RAP OUTPUT SHOWS GRADUAL INCREASING COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE
HRRR IS MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOPING AFTER 11Z ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70, AND SPOTTY SHOWERS
FROM JACKSONVILLE TO SPRINGFIELD. HAVE REDUCED POPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING, AND WENT WITH INCREASING POPS TO HIGHER
CHANCE FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 08Z/3AM TO 12Z/7AM TONIGHT.
A BAND OF SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM ACROSS IOWA AND THE SURGE OF
MOISTURE AND SHOWERS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI LENDS SOME
CONFIDENCE TO SOME PRECIP DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT IN THE WEST AT
LEAST.
CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP LOW TEMPS ON THE MILD
SIDE, IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S, WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED.
UPDATED FORECAST INFO IS ALREADY AVAILABLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL IL HAS BEEN HARD TO
MOVE TODAY AS PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE AFFECTED
AIRMASS CHANGES. BROAD BOUNDARY OF AIRMASS DIFFERENCES FROM 60S IN
NORTHERN IL AND 70S TO 80S IN SOUTH. AMPLE VERY MOIST AIRMASS OVER
REGION HAS KEPT PCPN MOVING OVER AREA THROUGH THE DAY...BUT THE
PCPN HAS BEEN RAINFALL PRODUCERS THAT ARE MOVING ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
QUICK BURST OF HEAVY RAIN AND THEN MOVE ON. MUCAPES OVER AREA IN
THE 1000-2000 RANGE BUT WITH A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SHEAR. MOISTURE
CHANNEL DATA CONTINUES TO SHOWS FETCH OF DEEP MOISTURE FROM OK/TX
SYSTEM INTO MO AND IL.
EXPECT A BRIEF TEMPORARY LULL IN PCPN IN THE LATE EVENING DUE TO
WEAK UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH...AND THEN STARTING BY
MIDNIGHT...CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN. MOISTURE FETCH WILL KEEP CHANCE
POPS IN AREA OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS PSBL.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH OF IL THURSDAY
PUSHING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL IL
DURING THE DAY...WHILE RICH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UP TO AROUND 2
INCHES STREAM INTO SOUTHEAST IL AHEAD OF THE REMNANTS OF FORMER
TROPICAL STORM BILL. STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT...AND POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY IN THE
MOISTURE RICH PLUME AHEAD OF BILL REMNANTS COULD RESULT IN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY WITH A STRONG WIND GUST THREAT AS WELL
AS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. THE MITIGATING FACTORS WILL BE EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER AND RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT TENDING TO REDUCE
INSTABILITY.
SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN OR CENTRAL IL LOOKS TO BE A
CONTINUED FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL INTO FRIDAY AS
MODELS MOVE BILL REMNANTS TOWARD SOUTHERN IL...GENERALLY SPREADING
WIDESPREAD RAIN INTO SOUTHERN IL FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY FRIDAY BEFORE THE MAIN
SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST IL. 12Z NAM IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER
THAN CONSENSUS OF OTHER MODELS WITH THE MOVEMENT OF BILL...SO THIS
OUTLIER SCENARIO IS LESS LIKELY. TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO TRACK THIS
SYSTEM THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE THE PAST FEW MODEL
RUNS...AND THEREFORE THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST
FAVORED AREA FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION.
FOLLOWING BILL...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL LIKELY BRING A GAP IN
PRECIPITATION FOR 12 HOURS OR SO SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN
ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE/COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY. TIMING OF THIS DRIER PERIOD REMAINS
PROBLEMATIC THIS FAR OUT...SO FORECAST POPS THIS PERIOD CONTINUE TO
REFLECT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE CATEGORY. HIGHS SHOULD INCREASE TO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IL SATURDAY IN
THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEHIND BILL. A LARGE SCALE RIDGE BUILDING INTO
THE CENTRAL U.S. SHOULD BRING A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND. HAVE GONE
WITH A DRY TO SLIGHT CHANCE PRECIP FORECAST FOR TUESDAY TO
WEDNESDAY. HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S BY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IN THE LAST FEW HOURS HAS HELPED SUPPRESS THE
PRECIP THE LAST HALF OF THE EVENING. HOWEVER, A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND MOISTURE STREAMING TOWARD IL
FROM THE REMNANTS OF BILL WILL CAUSE INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS AS EARLY AS 10Z-11Z IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. THE CENTER
OF CIRCULATION OF BILL IN FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS IS FORECAST TO VERY
SLOWLY ADVANCE ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND MISSOURI, BEFORE IT PICKS UP
SPEED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS IL.
HRRR INDICATES A WEAKENING OF THE SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST BEFORE THEY REACH PIA LATE TONIGHT. IT THEN SHOWS A
BROAD REGION OF RAIN/STORMS DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE LATER THIS
MORNING. THE RAP IS MORE GENEROUS WITH PRECIP DEVELOPMENT AS EARLY
AS 07-08Z TONIGHT, AND EXPANDING CHANCES THROUGH EARLY MORNING
BEFORE DIMINISHING CHANCES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE OPPOSITE
SOLUTIONS LOWERS CONFIDENCE ON ANY DISTINCT PERIOD OF RAIN/STORMS
FOR ANY TERMINAL SITE. WE INCLUDED VCSH FOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
THE MORNING, THEN WENT WITH VCTS FOR THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THE
AIRMASS IS PRIMED FOR AFTERNOON INSTABILITY STORMS, AND WITH A
FRONT STALLING IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING, CANT RULE
OUT ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
WE DRIED OUT THE EARLY EVENING, BUT THERE IS A SIGNAL IN THE
MODELS FOR LATE EVENING SHOWERS DEVELOPING WELL AHEAD OF THE
REMNANTS OF BILL. WE INCLUDED A VCSH FOR THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
WE KEPT NEARLY ALL VFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW, WITH MVFR EXPECTED
DURING ANY HEAVIER RAINS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN SW THROUGH THE MORNING, THEN SHIFT MORE W-SW BY
AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO 10-14KT.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SHIMON
SHORT TERM...GOETSCH
LONG TERM...ONTON
AVIATION...SHIMON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1145 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR THE IA/MN BORDER TO THE QUAD CITIES
AND THEN TO NORTHERN INDIANA. NORTH OF THE FRONT DEWPOINTS WERE IN
THE LOWER 60S (IN THE 50S IN WI) BUT TO THE SOUTH DEWS WERE WELL
INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE CWA WERE IN
THE 70S WHICH HAS BEEN HELD DOWN BY EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING INTO SW MN AND INTO WESTERN IA AND THEN
TO NW KS. MIDWEST MOSAIC RADAR LOOPS INDICATE A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE BETTER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM CENTRAL MO TO WESTERN IL AND THEN INTO EASTERN IL.
ELSEWHERE... A FEW STRONGER STORMS WERE NOTED IN NORTHCENTRAL IOWA
AND SE MN WHERE SBCAPES WERE 2500 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WAS
STRONG AT 50 KNOTS.
ACROSS THE DVN CWA DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER INSTABILITY WAS VERY
MINIMAL AND SHEAR IS WEAK AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THIS WAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATERS IN THE CWA WERE AROUND 1.5 INCHES WITH THE
OVER 2 INCH PWATS FROM TX TO SOUTHERN IL. TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL
WAS LOCATED IN THE DALLAS/FT. WORTH METROPLEX EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
FORECAST FOCUS ON CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TONIGHT...OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE VERY MUCH IN DISAGREEMENT WITH
REGARDS TO CONVECTIVE TRENDS. ECMWF IS ESSENTIALLY DRY WHILE THE
GFS IS THE WETTEST. THE NAM IGNITES THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN OUR
FAR SOUTH WHILE THE HI-RES HRRR MESO MODEL BRINGS WEAKENING
THUNDERSTORMS INTO OUR NW CWA THIS EVENING AND LEAVES THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT DRY. I WILL ESSENTIALLY BE TAKING A MIDDLE
OF THE ROAD APPROACH AND LEAVING POPS IN THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE.
FORCING/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK ALONG WITH
MINIMAL INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CWA AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL NEED TO
MENTION AT LEAST A SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED BUT THERE MAY BE
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS ESPECIALLY BEFORE
SUNSET. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NORTH TO
LOWER 70S SOUTH.
THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY PROBABLY ALONG
HIGHWAY 34 AS THE REMNANTS OF BILL TRACKS NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON. OUR NORTH WILL GRADUALLY SEE DRIER
AIR WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 50S DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL REMAIN IN THE JUICY AIRMASS
AS THE FRONT STALLS. AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY SO I WILL
MAINTAIN THE 40-50 POPS. THE BULK OF THE MODELS KEEP THE HEAVIEST
RAINS SOUTH OF THE DVN CWA. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL..NOW SHOWN TRACKING WELL TO THE
SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN MO INTO SOUTHERN IL THU NIGHT INTO FRI
NIGHT...WILL KEEP MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A QUIET WEATHER
REGIME FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. MORE ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS LATE
SATURDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS A FRONT DROPPING
SOUTH INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BECOMES STALLED OUT. THIS WILL
PROVIDE NEARLY DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
THURSDAY NIGHT...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER ALBERTA IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD SE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER
SHOT OF DRY EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WELL INTO EASTERN IA THROUGH
MIDDAY FRI. THE ONLY POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE ALONG
THE REMNANT SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT WASHES OUT FROM NORTHERN MO INTO
CENTRAL IL OVERNIGHT AND HAVE LOW POPS IN PLACE. ANY THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE LIMITED TO EARLY EVENING...ANTICIPATING THE VERY LOW MODEL
MUCAPES AND STABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE OVERNIGHT. SOMEWHAT
LIKE THIS MORNING...THE DRY AIR WITH DEWPOINTS LOWERING INTO THE 50S
OVER IL...WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO COOL INTO THE MID 50S NE TO
LOWER 60S SW. WITH AT LEAST HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER LIKELY...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 FRIDAY WITH
SURFACE WINDS BACKING TO THE SOUTH BY EVENING AS THE HIGH RETREATS
EASTWARD. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
SOUTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SOUTHERLY WINDS EDGE DEWPOINTS BACK
UPWARDS AND THE REMNANT WEAK CONVERGENT BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR CONVECTION.
SATURDAY...BILL DISSIPATES TO THE SE AS AN INCOMING FRONT AND
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH BECOME THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURES. STRONG THETAE ADVECTION FEEDING INTO THE REGION
IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AN MCS THAT IS LIKELY
TO PUSH THROUGH WITH THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY
POPS ARE MAINTAINED. HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS...WITH PW VALUES POSSIBLE
NEAR 2 INCHES...WILL BRING THE FIRST THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN BACK INTO
THE FORECAST. STRONG PREFRONTAL WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL SEND HIGHS
BACK INTO THE 80S WHILE DEWPOINTS LIKELY RETURN TO THE LOWER 70S.
THIS WILL LEAD TO UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING
WINDS WITH SEVERE STORMS AS OUTLINED IN THE SPC DAY 4 SEVERE OUTLOOK
15 PERCENT AREA CENTERED OVER EASTERN IA.
SUNDAY THROUGH WED...THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW HAVE BETTER AGREEMENT
DEPICTING THE WEST TO EAST FRONT...SUPPRESSED TO NORTHERN MO SUNDAY
NIGHT...LIFTING BACK NORTH AND BECOMING STALLED OUT ROUGHLY ALONG
HIGHWAY 30 BY TUE NIGHT. THE MODELS THEN DEPART WITH THE ECMWF
LIFTING THE BOUNDARY NORTH INTO MN AND SOUTHERN WI WHILE THE GFS IS
FURTHER SOUTH. EITHER WAY...WITH AN ACTIVE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
AND UPPER JET TRACK JUST TO THE NORTH...THE SETUP IS PRIME FOR AN
ACTIVE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES
THROUGHOUT. FOR NOW...HAVE HIGHER POPS IN THE NORTH CLOSER TO THE
MOST LIKELY FRONTAL POSITION. WITH AN OPEN FEED OF GULF MOISTURE...
SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE A DAILY THREAT. THIS WOULD
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF FLOODING ON AREA RIVERS
THAT WILL LIKELY HAVE RETURNED TO THEIR BANKS BY THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
A FRONTAL SYSTEM SAGGING TOWARD THE AREA WILL CONTINUE THE CHC
FOR ISOLATED TO WDLY SCTRD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACRS THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING...BUT MAY BE CLEAR OF THE CID
AND DBQ TERMINALS ALREADY BY EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. VARYING
AMOUNTS OF VFR CLOUD DECKS TO MVFR INTO THU MORNING AS WELL...WITH
A CHC OF BRL DROPPING TO LOW MVFR OR EVEN IFR FOR A PERIOD THU
MORNING IN THE VCNTY OF THE SLOWING BOUNDARY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
HANGING UP ALONG AND SOUTH OF BRL MAY ALSO KEEP THE CHC OF ONGOING
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE VCNTY OF THAT TAF SITE THROUGH MID THU
MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECT VEERING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND VFR
CIGS/VSBYS BEHIND THE FRONT THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ..12..
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
119 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 119 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE A HOT AND
MUGGY NIGHT WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 70 AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
70S. THIS MOISTURE AVAILABLE HAS MADE FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY WHERE PRECIP HAS FALLEN EARLIER IN
THE DAY. IN ADDITION...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN POPPING UP ALONG
THE TN BORDER. WHILE THE HRRR DEPICTS THIS COMING TO AN END...IN
THIS AIRMASS...WILL LEAVE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HEADING INTO
THE MORNING HOURS. A NEW ZFP HAS BEEN SENT OUT WITH THIS UPDATE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1020 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
SHOWERS HAVE COMPLETELY DISSIPATED SO HAVE BUMPED POPS DOWN
SLIGHTLY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALSO MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE T/TD GRIDS TO BETTER ALIGN THEM WITH MOST RECENT OBS. SENT
UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS SO HAVE KEPT THE POP FORECAST
AS IS FOR THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS AND DEW POINTS TO BETTER ALIGN THEM WITH RECENT OBS. SENT
UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST SOUTHWEST TO PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC. MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RIDGING GENERALLY STAYING IN
CONTROL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER WEAK WAVES WILL AID IN
DEVELOPING MAINLY AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...HOWEVER THE OCCASIONAL EARLY
MORNING DEVELOPMENT CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. AFTERNOON STORMS HAVE
FIRED UP ALONG AND NEAR A OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION
WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
STEEP LAPSE RATES...CAPES AOA 2000 J/KG...PWATS AOA 1.5...AND
DCAPES AOA 1000 J/KG WOULD THINK PRIMARY RISKS WITH THESE STORMS
WOULD BE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. GIVEN HIGH FREEZING
LEVELS AND WARM TEMPS SEVERE HAIL WOULD ONLY BE A SECONDARY
POTENTIAL THREAT WITH STRONGER STORMS. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO WANE AS WE MOVE INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. WEAK FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO POTENTIAL FOR
VALLEY FOG ONCE AGAIN IN THE MORNING WITH BEST COVERAGE IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL TODAY AND VALLEY LOCATIONS. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE AS WE MOVE TOWARD TO 15Z TIME FRAME.
ANOTHER WARM AND MOIST DAY IS ON TAP WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S TO EVEN LOWER 70S ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THIS AND CONTINUED
UNSTABLE AIR WITH CAPES AOA 2000 J/KG AND STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WOULD EXPECTED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE
AGAIN. WE REMAIN UNDER A SLIGHT TO MARGINAL RISK FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
WITH MAIN RISK ONCE AGAIN BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAIN...GIVEN PWATS AOA 1.5 AND DCAPES AOA 1000 J/KG. GIVEN WEAK
WAVES WILL KEEP CHANCES OF STORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
ONCE AGAIN AS WE MOVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY IN THE VALLEYS AND LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE
PRECIP.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED. THERE ARE SOME MINOR TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THE REMNANTS OF TS BILL...OUR MAIN FEATURE OF
INTEREST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FRI-SAT...WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE
SLOWER SOLUTION.
WE APPEAR TO BE HEADING INTO AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED.
SOUTHEAST RIDGE CONTINUES TO RETREAT SLIGHTLY BACK OUT INTO THE
ATLANTIC IN RESPONSE TO THE REMNANTS OF TS BILL MOVING UP INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. HEADING INTO FRIDAY...THE REMNANTS OF
BILL SETS UP JUST TO OUR WEST OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY BEFORE
MOVING EAST UP THE OH VALLEY AND WITH IT...A SUBSTANTIAL SHOT OF
MOISTURE. WHAT IS LEFT OF BILL BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE BY THE TIME IT
REACHES THE UPPER PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY. AS EXPECTED
PWATS WILL BE HIGH...APPROACHING THE 1.75 TO 2.00 INCH RANGE. IN
ADDITION FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE HIGH...LCLS ARE FAIRLY LOW AND
CAPES ARE RELATIVELY LOW...ALL EXPECTED CONSIDERING THE TROPICAL
NATURE OF THE AIR MASS AND SETTING UP CONDITIONS FOR WARM RAIN
PROCESSES. MEAN WINDS ARE DECENT HOWEVER...SO THE GREATEST HYDRO
THREAT COULD BE MORE FROM TRAINING CELLS AND ANY ACTIVITY THAT SETS
UP OVER RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES...E.G. CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS. WILL ALSO
HAVE TO CONSIDER THE EXACT TRACK OF BILL AS MODELS HONE IN ON THE
MOST LIKELY SOLUTION. IF WE SEE A SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW
REGIME DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...THIS MAY EAT AWAY AT SOME POTENTIAL
QPF TOTALS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THEREAFTER A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS DOWN TEMPORARILY TO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS BOUNDARY APPEARS TO LIFT
BACK TO THE NORTH BY TUESDAY AFTER STALLING OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COMMONWEALTH FOR SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA AT THE END
OF THE FORECAST WINDOW FOR WARMER...DRIER WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 119 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
MOST TAF SITES TONIGHT WILL BE DROPPING TO MVFR AND BELOW TOWARDS
DAWN DUE TO THE WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS AND CALM WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA AND ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY AREAS. A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY POP UP TOWARDS DAWN BUT EXPECTING A DRY REST OF THE
NIGHT. HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON...DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND HAVE KEPT VCTS AT ALL THE TAF SITES.
THIS DIURNAL TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ENDING SHORTLY AFTER 00Z AND THEN BEGIN TOMORROW NIGHT
AGAIN WITH THE FOG DEVELOPMENT. HAVE PUT THIS TREND INTO ALL THE
TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE CONTINUED CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
404 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN
CONUS/SRN CANADA. UPSTREAM...ONE SHORTWAVE IS EVIDENT OVER NRN MN
WHILE A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROF IS SWINGING SE THRU
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. WAVE OVER NRN MN HAS BEEN AIDING A PERSISTENT
AREA OF SHRA THAT HAS MOVED FROM NW WI EARLY THIS MORNING INTO WRN
UPPER MI THIS AFTN. THE CLOUD COVER OVER WRN UPPER MI HAS KEPT
INSTABILITY FROM DEVELOPING...SO THERE HAS BEEN NO THUNDER YET. VIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER TO THE S AND SW...
AND LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES MLCAPES HAVE INCREASED TO A
FEW HUNDRED J/KG INTO WCNTRL WI WITH THE 100J/KG ISOPLETH NOW NEAR
THE WI/MI BORDER. THAT INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH A WEAK SFC LOW PRES
OVER SRN MN AND TROF EXTENDING NE TOWARD KIWD HAS BECOME THE FOCUS
FOR DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HRS. WELL OFF TO
THE NW...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN SHORTWAVE TROF
EXTENDS FROM HUDSON BAY TO SE SASKATCHEWAN. SFC OBS/CANADIAN RADARS
SHOW SOME -SHRA/SPRINKLES WITHIN THE BAND OF CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING
FRONT. MORE RECENTLY...CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO FIRE ALONG THE
FRONT.
FIRST WAVE OVER NRN MN WILL SHIFT E ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES THIS
EVENING. MODELS HINT THAT ANOTHER SUBTLE WAVE WILL FOLLOW LATE
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE SWINGING SE
THRU NRN ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT THRU EARLY THU AFTN. HAVE LARGELY
UTILIZED RADAR TRENDS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HRS TO PUSH ONGOING SHRA
ASSOCIATED WITH FIRST SHORTWAVE ENE INTO NCNTRL UPPER MI BEFORE
DIMINISHING. NAM AND THE HIGH RES NAM WINDOW HAVE A PRETTY GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS PCPN...SO NAM OUTPUT WAS INCORPORATED AS WELL.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE CONVECTION DEVELOPING TO THE SW NEAR SRN
MN WEAK SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROF THAT EXTENDS TOWARD KIWD. SINCE
THIS CONVECTION IS LARGELY DRIVEN BY DAYTIME INSTABILITY...THIS PCPN
SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH AS IT LIFTS TOWARD THE FCST AREA TONIGHT.
PROBABLY WON`T COMPLETELY DISSIPATE GIVEN SOME CONTINUED FORCING
THRU THE NIGHT. SO...FCST WILL SHOW SCT/NMRS SHRA INTO WRN UPPER MI
DIMINISHING TO SCT WITH TIME EASTWARD. SINCE CLOUD COVER WILL
DOMINATE HEADING TO SUNSET...INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED
HERE...BUT IT STILL WARRANTS A MENTION OF THUNDER WITH BEST CHC FROM
KIWD TOWARD KIMT.
POTENTIAL FOR SCT SHOWERS/PERHAPS A TSTM WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ERN
FCST AREA THU MORNING ALONG JUST AHEAD OF THE FAIRLY STRONG COLD
FRONT PUSHING THRU THE AREA. AS IS THE CASE TODAY IN CANADA...THERE
MAY ALSO BE ISOLD -SHRA FOR A SHORT TIME FOLLOWING FROPA AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THU
AFTN WILL BRING DRIER AIR/CLEARING SKIES. IT WILL BE CHILLY ALONG
LAKE SUPERIOR THU AFTN WITH GRADIENT WIND OFF THE LAKE. LAKESIDE
LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF LONG FETCHES ACROSS THE LAKE WILL LIKELY SEE
AFTN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S/LWR 50S. AT THE HIGH END...MAX TEMPS
OVER FAR SCNTRL UPPER MI SHOULD REACH THE MID 70S. IT WILL ALSO BE A
BREEZY DAY BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E...DUE TO DECENT
PRES RISES/CAA AND 20-30KT WINDS AT 925MB.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
MEDIUM/EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A
PERSISTENT ZONAL FLOW WL PREVAIL OVER THE NRN CONUS TO THE N OF A
SUBTROPICAL UPR RDG OVER THE SRN STATES. MAIN FCST CHALLENGES WL BE
TIMING PCPN EVENTS ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCES STREAMING W-E IN
THIS FAST FLOW. SINCE THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR WL REMAIN TO THE S
CLOSER TO THE RDG...EXPECT TEMPS TO AVERAGE AOB NORMAL DURING THIS
PERIOD.
FRI...SFC HI PRES UNDER APRCHG SHRTWV RDG IS FCST TO DRIFT FM OVER
UPR MI INTO LK HURON BY 00Z SAT. RETURN SW FLOW BTWN THE DEPARTING
HI AND LO PRES MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS IS FCST TO TAP MORE
MSTR/HIER H85 THETA E AND LIFT PWAT BACK OVER AN INCH ACRS THE WRN
CWA BY 00Z SAT. SO EXPECT INCRSG CLDS W-E DESPITE LINGERING NEAR SFC
DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING HI. SOME OF THE MODELS
GENERATE SOME PCPN LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE W...WHERE H85 THETA E
ADVECTION IS FCST TO BE RATHER SHARP. BUT ABSENCE OF OTHER FORCING
WITH LINGERING LLVL ACYC FLOW/LIMITED DEPTH OF GREATER MSTR RETURN
AHEAD OF APRCHG RDG AXIS SUGGESTS DRY WX WL PREVAIL EXCEPT PERHAPS
OVER WRN LK SUP. H85 TEMPS REBOUNDING TO 12C OVER THE W AT 00Z SAT
WL SUPPORT HI TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE 70S IN THAT AREA. BUT MAX
TEMPS SHOULD HOLD IN THE 60S FARTHER TO THE E AND WL BE COOLEST
NEAR THE CHILLY WATERS OF LK MI DESPITE MORE SUNSHINE THERE.
FRI NGT/SAT...ALTHOUGH THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THE PERSISTENT SW
FLOW BTWN HI PRES SHIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE APRCHG LO PRES
TROF WL ADVECT HIER PWAT UP TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCH INTO THE UPR LKS...
THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE IN RATHER POOR AGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH/
TRACK OF EXPLICIT SHRTWVS EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL FLOW AND EVEN IN THE
H85 THETA E FIELD THESE DISTURBANCES WL BE ABLE TO TAP. NOT
SURPRISINGLY...THERE ARE ALSO SGNFT DIFFERENCES IN THE QPF AS WELL.
UNDER THESE CIRCUMSTANCES...OPTED TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF PCPN ON FRI
NGT PER MODEL TRENDS HOLDING THE SHARPER DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC TO
THE W. BEST CHC FOR THE HIER POPS LOOKS TO BE ON SAT AFTN...WHEN THE
GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING AXIS OF SHARPER DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC/MORE FOCUSED SHRTWV CROSSING UPR MI IN THE PRESENCE OF
DAYTIME HEATING. ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE CLD COVER WL LIMIT THE
OVERALL DESTABILIZATION...H7-5 LAPSE RATES FCST AS HI AS 6.8C/KM IN
THE PRESENCE OF STRONG/SLOWLY VEERING SFC-H5 WINDS THAT MIGHT BUMP
UP SFC-6KM SHEAR AS HI AS 50 KTS COULD CAUSE A FEW STRONGER STORMS.
NEW SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK SHOWS MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR TS PASSING THRU WI
AND CLIPPING MENOMINEE COUNTY. DESPITE SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE
DETAILS...OPTED TO MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS DURING THIS TIME. EVEN IF
LLVL DRY AIR IS MORE PERSISTENT ON FRI NGT...INCRSG SW WINDS/MORE
CLD COVER WL RESULT IN MUCH HIER MIN TEMPS THAN TNGT.
SAT NGT/SUN...EXPECT LINGERING POPS OVER MAINLY THE SE CWA ON SAT
EVNG TO DIMINISH WITH ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR/LOWER H85 THETA E AND
DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC IN THE WAKE OF EXITING MORE ORGANIZED SHRTWV
AND APRCH OF WEAK SFC HI PRES RDG. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
WHETHER ANY TRAILING SHRTWVS EMBEDDED IN THE WNW FLOW ALOFT WL HAVE
AN IMPACT ON SUN AND PERHAPS GENERATE SOME LK BREEZE CNVGC SHOWERS
WITH DAYTIME HEATING IN LGT WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK HI PRES
BLDG INTO THE UPR LKS. BUT WL GO NO HIER THAN SCHC POPS GIVEN THE
GENERAL DRYING/LLVL ACYC FLOW.
EXTENDED...UPR MI WL REMAIN UNDER WNW FLOW ALOFT TO THE N OF
SUBTROPICAL HI PRES RDG CENTERED OVER THE SRN ROCKIES/PLAINS. AS IS
TYPICAL FOR WARM SEASON ZONAL FLOWS...THERE IS POOR AGREEMENT AMONG
THE LONGER RANGE MODELS ON THE TIMING/INTENSITY/TRACK OF SHRTWVS
EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW THAT MIGHT IMPACT THE CWA AS EARLY AS SUN
NGT/MON. SO DID NOT STRAY FM CONSENSUS MODEL FCST POPS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. BUT SINCE THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS THE SHARPER
BAROCLINIC ZN WL STAY FAIRLY FAR TO THE S OF UPR MI...SUSPECT ANY
PCPN EVENTS WL BE GENERALLY MODEST. IF THE BNDRY IF FAR ENUF TO THE
S...A HI PRES RDG MAY BRING MAINLY DRY WX TO THE CWA. WITH H85 TEMPS
FCST WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 12C...EXPECT TEMPS TO AVERAGE AOB
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU MORNING AT KIWD. KCMX WILL
HAVE AN UPSLOPE WIND DIRECTION OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHICH WILL CAUSE
LIFR CONDITIONS TO FORM LATE TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING. AT KSAW...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THRU THE AREA THU MORNING...BRINGING A SHIFT TO NW TO N
WINDS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT KCMX AND ESPECIALLY AT KSAW. AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO IWD AND CMX LATE THU
MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 403 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. EACH ONE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS.
BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY...NW WINDS MAY GUST TO 20-25KT
FOR A TIME OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME
LIGHT TONIGHT/FRI MORNING AS HIGH PRES PASSES OVER THE AREA. AS THE
HIGH DEPARTS AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES...SE TO S WINDS WILL
RAMP UP FRI AFTN THRU SAT MORNING. WINDS MAY GUST TO 15-25KT FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING OVER CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA SAT AFTN. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS AHEAD
OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP OVER THE LAKE. SINCE
THE HIGH PRES FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL BE WEAK...WINDS BEHIND THIS
FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...UNDER 20KT FOR LATE SAT THRU SUN.
THE GRADUAL ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH WILL
DISSIPATE ANY LINGERING FOG ON SUN. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL LINGER INTO
MON UNDER A WEAK PRES GRADIENT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
311 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED EAST OF MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING...AS A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER ONTARIO AND MINNESOTA
BEGINS TO MAKE A MOVE TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION. ONLY PRECIP
TO SPEAK OF ATTM REMAINS UPSTREAM OF OUR CWA OVER UPPER MICHIGAN PER
KMQT BASE REF IMAGES...DEVELOPING WITHIN AN AREA OF ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LACK OF INSTABILITY HAS
PRECLUDED ANY THUNDER WITHIN THIS BKN LINE OF SHOWERS. PRIMARY
FORECASTS CONCERN FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT ARE POPS AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDER AS THIS FRONT MOVES THRU OUR CWA.
BOTH THE NAM AND THE RAP DEVELOP A WEAK WAVE OVER WISCONSIN THIS
MORNING ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...PULLING ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS A WEAK
INSTABILITY AXIS PUSHES NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN
TODAY. MUCAPES INCREASE TO AROUND 750 TO 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS SE SECTIONS OF OUR CWA...MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM APN TO
HTL. THIS IS WHERE OUR GREATEST POPS AND BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER
WILL RESIDE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THANKS TO
FROPA DURING MAX DIURNAL HEATING/INSTABILITY. ALSO...SOME DESCENT
SPEED SHEAR WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THIS AREA BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...FURTHER SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER
DEVELOPMENT. LATEST SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS OUR SE CWA FOR A
MARGINAL CHANCE OF SVR STORMS...WHICH IS REASONABLE GIVEN THE ABOVE
SCENARIO.
HAVE MADE SOME MINOR UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND EXTENDED POPS
INTO THE EVENING HOURS BASED ON LATEST FROPA PROJECTIONS. HAVE ALSO
INCREASED CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR OUR SE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LOW LEVEL CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL LEND TO A LARGER
SPREAD OF TEMPS TODAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
60S IN ERN UPR MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 70S IN OUR FAR SE CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: FAST MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
REGIME SHOWING NO SIGNS OF SLOWING DOWN ANYTIME IN THE NEAR
FUTURE...WITH NORTHERN MICHIGAN SQUARELY CENTERED BETWEEN BROAD
SOUTHERN RIDGING AND DEEP TROUGHING ROTATING AROUND THE CANADIAN
ARCTIC. FAST MOVING...HARD TO TIME...WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE
OVERHEAD...ALTHOUGH STILL APPEARS DISCONNECT WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN
THEM AND MUCH DEEPER INSTABILITY/MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE NORTHERN
OHIO VALLEY. WHILE THIS MAY PREVENT A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL FOR
OUR NECK OF THE WOODS...PASSING WAVES WORKING ON A MODESTLY MOST
ENVIRONMENT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES AS WE HEAD INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THIS WEEKEND.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: ADDRESSING SATURDAY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
DETAILS: WORK WEEK ENDS ON A QUIET NOTE AS HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS
CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER...DESPITE SLOWLY PASSING OFF TO THE EAST. ALL
STRONG WAA WILL REMAIN CENTERED WELL TO OUR WEST...WITH PERHAPS JUST
SOME HINTS OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN VIA SLOWLY INCREASING
CIRRUS. VERY COOL EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND NICELY TO
THE SUNSHINE...BUT SHOULD STILL END UP A LEAST A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT ALL DEEPER MOISTURE AND
SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL BE REMOVED WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST
(THE LATTER TIED TO REMNANTS OF WHAT WAS ONCE TROPICAL STORM BILL).
SLOWER IS DEFINITELY THE TREND WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT WAVE
AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SATURDAY...LIKELY A RESULT OF THE
PROXIMITY OF "BILL" PASSING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. WHAT MID LEVEL
SUPPORT DOES ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY WILL BE IN WEAKENING
MODE...ALTHOUGH NICE SURGE OF THETA-E ADVECTION AND SOME RER UPPER
JET SUPPORT MAY COMPENSATE SOME. MAIN CHANCES FOR SHOWER/EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL NOW LOOKS TO ARRIVE THE SECOND HALF OF
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING WHEN ABOVE FORCING INTERACTS WITH
FAVORED DIURNAL INSTABILITY TRENDS. HOWEVER...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT SOME MORNING ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER ALONG SURGE OF
STRONGER MOISTURE ADVECTION TIED TO PASSING LOW LEVEL JET. MUCH LIKE
THE PAST SEVERAL SIMILAR EVENTS...ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH IN VICINITY OF MUCH BETTER
INSTABILITY.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE EXTENDED RANGE...ESPECIALLY
WITH REGARDS TO ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES. JUST REALLY IMPOSSIBLE
TO GET A GOOD FEEL ON SHOWER POTENTIAL SUNDAY INTO THE START OF
NEXT WORK WEEK...WITH YET TO BE SEEN FAST MOVING WAVES IN OVERHEAD
AGGRESSIVE FLOW AT LEAST OFFERING SOME SHOWER POTENTIAL AT TIMES.
PER THE USUAL IN SUCH A PATTERN...THIS FORECAST WILL APPEAR MUCH
WETTER THAN WHAT WILL LIKELY ACTUALLY OCCUR...SIMPLY AN
UNFORTUNATE PRODUCT OF TIMING UNCERTAINTY. NOW...AS PREVIOUS
FORECASTER MENTIONED...LATEST HIGHER RES GUIDANCE PROGS HAVE
INCREASINGLY ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR BUILDING CENTRAL PLAINS HEAT
DOME/RIDGING HEADING INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ALL-THE-WHILE
TROUGHING RESIDES OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS. ABOVE IS A PRIME
PATTERN FOR PERIODIC RIDGE RIDING MCS`S (SO CALLED RING OF FIRE)
TO PIVOT SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. SIMPLY TOO EARLY TO SAY
WITH ANY CONFIDENCE WHERE THE BEST CORRIDOR WILL ALIGN ITSELF.
WILL SAY IF CURRENT TRENDS HOLD...MOST IMPRESSIVE CORRIDOR OF HEAT
AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH...PLACING
THE MOST ACTIVE TEMP/INSTABILITY GRADIENT JUST OFF TO OUR
SOUTHWEST. ONLY TIME WILL TELL...OF COURSE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR FOR ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF
SITES THRU THURSDAY NIGHT DESPITE INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
PASSES THRU THE REGION. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE ACROSS NE LWR MICHIGAN (APN) THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AS FROPA OCCURS DURING MAX HEATING/DIURNAL INSTABILITY.
LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME N/NW IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT DURING THE DAY...AND WILL AGAIN BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE AFTER
SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
WINDS AND WAVES WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AND STRENGTHEN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...BUT AT THIS POINT...BOTH
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND
THUNDER ACROSS NE LWR MICHIGAN AND THUS THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE
AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT...WITH DRY WEATHER AND DIMINISHING WINDS/WAVES EXPECTED
LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MLR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
350 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
THE SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE THE CHANCE AND COVERAGE OF POSSIBLE
CONVECTION ALONG SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPPING OVER THE AREA
TODAY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FAST WEST FLOW ALOFT. THE NORTHERN EXTENSION DEVELOPED SOME
SHOWERS/THUNDER OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTAS AND IS NOW WEAKENING.
THE OTHER A DECENT SIZED MCS TRAVELING ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND
DROPPING INTO NEBRASKA. A LOT OF CIRRUS DEBRIS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
IT MOVES SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. THE NORTHERN SYSTEM IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT AND IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH DURING THE LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON. VARIOUS MODELS SUGGEST INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND WITH LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE WITH THE
FRONT...MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION
AS IT DROPS SOUTH DURING THE MAX HEATING OF THE DAY. VARIOUS
HIRES MODELS AND THE HRRR IS NOW TRYING TO DEVELOP ISOLATED
CONVECTION WITH THE BOUNDARY. IT APPEARS AS THE WAVE MOVES FARTHER
EAST THE UPPER JET STREAK TRANSLATES FARTHER EAST...THE BETTER
FORCING FROM IT IS GENERATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN CWA. MAIN
QUESTION WAS HOW FAR WEST WITH THE SMALL POP TO GO. THE NAM AND
HIRES NMM WERE THE STRONGEST WITH DEVELOPMENT/INSTABILITY...BUT THE
GFS STILL MANAGED TO DROP SOME QPF INTO WESTERN WI. WILL HOLD SMALL
POP TO THE EAST METRO INTO WESTERN WI FOR NOW.
SHOULD SEE DIURNAL NATURE TO ANY DEVELOPMENT AND SHOULD DIE OFF
QUICKLY THIS EVENING. CLEARING WITH MORE CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM MORE
DAKOTAS ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT. KEPT IT DRY FOR NOW...BUT WILL HAVE
TO WATCH DAKOTAS SYSTEM FOR ANY VARIABLE SHIFTING OF COMPLEX
OVERNIGHT. IT COULD AFFECT THE FAR WEST BEFORE DAYBREAK.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
A ZONAL FLOW REGIME PERSISTS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK...WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES FOSTERING MULTIPLE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SAID PATTERN WILL
ALSO BE CONDUCIVE TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPATURES WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.
AT DAYBREAK FRIDAY...EXPECT ELEVATED CONVECTION TO BE ONGOING OVER
THE DAKOTAS...GENERATED BY ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A WARM FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EASTWARD
DURING THE DAY AS THE FIRST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVES
ARRIVES...BUT THE BULK LOOKS TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AS A CAP BUILDS IN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WILL LIKELY SEE A
BREAK IN STORMS UNTIL WE CAN TAP INTO THE BUILDING INSTABILITY.
THE AFTERNOON ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE
COLD FRONT TO THE WEST OVER THE DAKOTAS...AND THEN CONGEAL INTO A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THIS
HAPPENS...THERE LOOKS TO BE A POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN
THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR FORECAST. THIS THREAT APPEARS TO LIE BETWEEN 06Z
AND 18Z SATURDAY...WITH RESIDUAL ACTIVITY IN WI SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING A LULL IN THE STORMS...BUT THEN MORE
WEAK EMBEDDED ENERGY ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IN
THE TIMING OF THESE TYPES OF WAVES IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW IS OF
COURSE LOW...SO HAVE HELD ON TO 20-30 POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRING SLIGHTLY MORE TO FOCUS ON...AS A
BAROCLINIC ZONE LIFTS TOWARD THE AREA. HOWEVER...18.00Z GFS AND
ECMWF SOLUTIONS SHOW VASTLY DIFFERENT TIMING/PLACEMENT SCENARIOS.
HAVE THEREFORE INCLUDED 30-40 POPS AT THIS POINT UNTIL
DIFFERENCES RESOLVE SOMEWHAT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1103 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER WRN WI INTO EXTREME ERN MN...
STILL E OF KMSP BUT MAINLY AFFECTING KRNH AND POSSIBLY REACH KEAU.
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LOW STRATUS MOVEMENT FORCES INCLUSION AT JUST
KRNH BUT THIS WILL BE MONITORED IN CASE OTHER TERMINALS DROP TO
IFR-LIFR CEILINGS. SOME PATCHY MVFR-IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE DURG THE
PRE-DAWN HRS AWAY FROM KMSP...THEN VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL TMRW AND
TMRW NIGHT WITH ONLY HIGH DECKS.
KMSP...VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THIS TAF SET WITH LOW
CHANCES OF OVERNIGHT MVFR CONDS...MAINLY DUE TO POTENTIAL PRE-DAWN
VSBY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...MAINLY VFR WITH OCNL PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR IN SHRA/TSRA.
WINDS SE 10-15 KT.
SAT...MAINLY VFR WITH OCNL PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR IN SHRA/TSRA.
WINDS SSW 10-15 KT BECOMING NW IN AFTERNOON.
SUN...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHC OF MVFR SHRA/TSRA. N WINDS 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
107 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
AT 20Z BROAD ZONAL FLOW WAS ESTABLISHED OVER MOST OF THE NORTHERN
CONUS WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED DIFFUSE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. MAIN JET STREAK WAS POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF
THE US/CANADIAN BORDER ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER STATES. A LEE SIDE
SURFACE LOW WAS NOTED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING...WITH A STALLED
FRONT EVIDENT ON SFC OBS AND SATELLITE STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST
COLORADO INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS...THEN NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA. LATEST OBS INDICATE THE FRONT IS BEGINNING TO CREEP
BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL SERVE A FOCAL POINT FOR
POTENTIAL CONVECTION OVER THE CWA TONIGHT. NORTH OF THE FRONT A
RELATIVELY HUMID AIRMASS WAS IN PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
JUST BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
UPDATED FORECAST FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WATCH. ADJUSTED WINDS
AND CLOUD COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING. THE HRRR HAS ROUTINELY SHOWN SPORADIC CONVECTIVE
INITIATION WHERE IT CAN RESOLVE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DRAPED
OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS RATHER WEAK AT
THIS TIME SO AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE SPARSE AT BEST IF ANY
CONVECTION CAN FIRE. BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE LATE THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN
HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN WYOMING/MONTANA LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...THEN DROP SOUTHEAST AS AN ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF
STORMS ALONG THE CONVERGENT NOSE OF A STRENGTHENING LLJ.
EXPECTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT TO RESIDE
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT
SLOWLY MOVES NORTH. THE POTENTIAL WILL BE THERE FOR A FEW OF THE
STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS TONIGHT CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. LATEST RAP13 AND NAM12 SHOW 800MB
COMPUTED LI/S OF -8C TO -10C...ALONG WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND 40-50 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. STORMS WILL PUSH SOUTH
AND EAST AS THE LLJ VEERS EAST OVERNIGHT. SOME MODELS LINGER
CONVECTION IN THE AREA THROUGH 15Z THURSDAY...BUT THIS MAY BE A
LITTLE SLOW. LOWERED POPS TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LATE THURSDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH A LULL EXPECTED IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
OVER THE CWA AS THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING
IN A HUMID AIRMASS WILL PROMOTE STRONG DESTABILIZATION AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER
AT THIS TIME AREAL COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE ISOLATED WITH WEAK UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHT RISES AND THE LACK OF A WELL DEFINED FOCAL POINT FOR
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. MODELS SHOW THE BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR
SEVERE STORMS NORTH AND WEST OF CWA UNDERNEATH FASTER WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND CLOSER TO A SFC LOW IN NORTHERN WYOMING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT AS
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE
PLENTIFUL WITH PWATS ABOVE 1.25 INCHES WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING
POCKETS ABOVE 1.50 INCHES. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IS LIMITED.
BY FRIDAY THE WARM FRONT WILL NORTH INTO S DAKOTA WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDING OVER THE CWA. RIDGE RIDING SHORT WAVE WILL
FAVOR STORMS IN THE DAKOTAS WHICH MAY CLIP NORTHERN NEB...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH AT THIS TIME. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE CLIMBING. MORE SUMMER LIKE TEMPS EXPECTED WITH
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ANTICIPATED. ALSO WILL BE A MUGGY DAY AS
DEW POINTS LIKELY TO BE IN THE 60S.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA. CAP IS FAIRLY STRONG AND BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE NEB/S DAKOTA BORDER.
BY SAT NIGHT THE FRONT STALLS TO THE SOUTH OVER KS WHILE A SHORT
WAVE MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THE CAP AS THE GFS IS STRONGER AND LIMITS PRECIP
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHILE THE ECMWF IS COOLER AND STORMS
SPREAD FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST.
AFTER A COOL DOWN FOR THE WEEKEND. THE STALLED FRONT LIFTS BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE QUICKLY REBUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA AND TEMPS CLIMB BACK TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
TO MID 90S. RIDGE RIDING WAVES LOOK TO KEEP MAJORITY OF THE
ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE CWA...HOWEVER CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRAY
STORM OR TWO DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVING ONTO
THE HIGH PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST WYOMING
AND BLACK HILLS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. WHILE
TIMING THE STORMS REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...ARRIVAL IS EXPECTED
AT KVTN AROUND 08Z AND KLBF AROUND 10Z. HEAVY RAIN...HAIL...AND
STRONG WINDS ARE ALL POSSIBLE. NEW DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON THURSDAY AND HAVE BEEN INCLUDED AS A PROB30.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...POWER
SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...ROBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1126 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
AT 20Z BROAD ZONAL FLOW WAS ESTABLISHED OVER MOST OF THE NORTHERN
CONUS WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED DIFFUSE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. MAIN JET STREAK WAS POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF
THE US/CANADIAN BORDER ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER STATES. A LEE SIDE
SURFACE LOW WAS NOTED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING...WITH A STALLED
FRONT EVIDENT ON SFC OBS AND SATELLITE STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST
COLORADO INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS...THEN NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA. LATEST OBS INDICATE THE FRONT IS BEGINNING TO CREEP
BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL SERVE A FOCAL POINT FOR
POTENTIAL CONVECTION OVER THE CWA TONIGHT. NORTH OF THE FRONT A
RELATIVELY HUMID AIRMASS WAS IN PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
JUST BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING. THE HRRR HAS ROUTINELY SHOWN SPORADIC CONVECTIVE
INITIATION WHERE IT CAN RESOLVE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DRAPED
OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS RATHER WEAK AT
THIS TIME SO AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE SPARSE AT BEST IF ANY
CONVECTION CAN FIRE. BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE LATE THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN
HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN WYOMING/MONTANA LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...THEN DROP SOUTHEAST AS AN ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF
STORMS ALONG THE CONVERGENT NOSE OF A STRENGTHENING LLJ.
EXPECTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT TO RESIDE
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT
SLOWLY MOVES NORTH. THE POTENTIAL WILL BE THERE FOR A FEW OF THE
STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS TONIGHT CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. LATEST RAP13 AND NAM12 SHOW 800MB
COMPUTED LI/S OF -8C TO -10C...ALONG WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND 40-50 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. STORMS WILL PUSH SOUTH
AND EAST AS THE LLJ VEERS EAST OVERNIGHT. SOME MODELS LINGER
CONVECTION IN THE AREA THROUGH 15Z THURSDAY...BUT THIS MAY BE A
LITTLE SLOW. LOWERED POPS TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LATE THURSDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH A LULL EXPECTED IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
OVER THE CWA AS THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING
IN A HUMID AIRMASS WILL PROMOTE STRONG DESTABILIZATION AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER
AT THIS TIME AREAL COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE ISOLATED WITH WEAK UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHT RISES AND THE LACK OF A WELL DEFINED FOCAL POINT FOR
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. MODELS SHOW THE BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR
SEVERE STORMS NORTH AND WEST OF CWA UNDERNEATH FASTER WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND CLOSER TO A SFC LOW IN NORTHERN WYOMING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT AS
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE
PLENTIFUL WITH PWATS ABOVE 1.25 INCHES WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING
POCKETS ABOVE 1.50 INCHES. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IS LIMITED.
BY FRIDAY THE WARM FRONT WILL NORTH INTO S DAKOTA WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDING OVER THE CWA. RIDGE RIDING SHORT WAVE WILL
FAVOR STORMS IN THE DAKOTAS WHICH MAY CLIP NORTHERN NEB...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH AT THIS TIME. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE CLIMBING. MORE SUMMER LIKE TEMPS EXPECTED WITH
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ANTICIPATED. ALSO WILL BE A MUGGY DAY AS
DEW POINTS LIKELY TO BE IN THE 60S.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA. CAP IS FAIRLY STRONG AND BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE NEB/S DAKOTA BORDER.
BY SAT NIGHT THE FRONT STALLS TO THE SOUTH OVER KS WHILE A SHORT
WAVE MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THE CAP AS THE GFS IS STRONGER AND LIMITS PRECIP
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHILE THE ECMWF IS COOLER AND STORMS
SPREAD FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST.
AFTER A COOL DOWN FOR THE WEEKEND. THE STALLED FRONT LIFTS BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE QUICKLY REBUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA AND TEMPS CLIMB BACK TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
TO MID 90S. RIDGE RIDING WAVES LOOK TO KEEP MAJORITY OF THE
ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE CWA...HOWEVER CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRAY
STORM OR TWO DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVING ONTO
THE HIGH PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST WYOMING
AND BLACK HILLS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. WHILE
TIMING THE STORMS REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...ARRIVAL IS EXPECTED
AT KVTN AROUND 08Z AND KLBF AROUND 10Z. HEAVY RAIN...HAIL...AND
STRONG WINDS ARE ALL POSSIBLE. NEW DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON THURSDAY AND HAVE BEEN INCLUDED AS A PROB30.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...ROBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
310 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HOT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SPREADING OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES
WILL KEEP NORTHERN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS STALLED OUT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO NEXT WEEK. EXPECT PERIODS
OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR IN THIS PATTERN WITH AN
ENHANCED RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF BILL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR TRENDS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS MOD TO LOCALLY HVY RAFL MOVG
THRU THE LWR SUSQ VLY...ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PA TURNPIKE. THIS
PCPN IS ASSOCD WITH H5 S/WV MOVING EWD ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THE WESTERLIES...ALIGNED WITHIN BAND OF PERSISTENTLY HIGH PWS
POOLED ALONG EAST/WEST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EWD
FROM THE MID MS/OH VLY. THE LATEST HRRR IS SUGGESTING THAT THIS
AREA OF RAIN WILL EXIT THE LNS AREA BY 09Z. UPSTREAM RADAR OVER
ERN OH SHOWS VERY LIGHT RETURNS MOVG INTO SW PA ASSOCD WITH NEXT
PIECE OF H5 S/WV ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE WLY FLOW ALOFT LOCATED ON
NRN PERIPHERY OF HOT RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. INDICATIONS
FROM MESO GUIDANCE SUPPORT LOWERING POPS AFT 09Z AND MAY NEED TO
ADJUST DOWNWARD AGAIN WITH NEXT UPDATE. UNTIL THEN WILL MAINTAIN
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SRN 1/3 OF THE CWA THRU DAYBREAK.
THE FCST FOR LATER TODAY/THIS AFTN STILL LOOKS SOMEWHAT MESSY
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND DURING THE MORNING AS SHORTWAVE
PASSES EAST OF PA. THE NAM SUGGESTS MUCH OF THE CWA WILL BECOME
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE BY THE AFTERNOON AS SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS NE
THRU THE AREA AND SKIES BECOME PTSUNNY. PORTIONS OF ERN PA COULD
REMAIN CLOUDY/STABLE EAST OF WARM FRONT WITH NAM LI PROGS STRONGLY
POSITIVE FROM NJ INTO THE POCONOS. THAT SHOULD KEEP THE RISK OF
LATE DAY TSTMS CONFINED TO WRN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. THE LATEST SPC SLIGHT RISK WAS SHIFTED SEWD FROM THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU TO INCLUDE ALL OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS INTO THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL MTNS WHERE WEAK WARM/FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
SET UP.
A MID-LVL TROUGH CROSSING SERN CANADA WILL PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT
ACROSS SRN LWR MI INTO WRN NY BY LATE TNGT. AN AXIS OF HI PWS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MID-60S
DEWPOINTS IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. ML CAPE SHOULD REMAIN
MODEST GIVEN WEAK MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND MULTI-LAYER CLOUDS. BELT
OF STRONGER MID-LVL WESTERLIES SHOULD EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD THE
WARM SECTOR AND PROMOTE RISK FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS
THU EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF BETTER HEATING/CLOUD BREAKS
WHERE LLVL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN. DRIER AIR SHOULD START TO
WORK INTO NWRN PA LATE TNGT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE SFC COLD
FRONT PUSHES SWD ACRS SOUTH-CENTRAL PA TOWARD THE MASON DIXON
LINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY IS LOOKING MAINLY DRY OVERALL AS DRIER/LOWER PW AIR MAKES
A PUSH INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER STILL CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM OVER SOUTHERN PA
WHERE PWS REMAIN MARGINAL AND MODELS SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY. A
RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT LOOKS IN STORE ACROSS NRN AREAS WITH SOME
OVERNIGHT READINGS POSSIBLY IN THE UPPER 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NORTHERN PA WILL BE COOL AND DRY INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND
SEASONABLE ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE HIGH CENTER SLIPS EAST OFF THE
COAST SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY OVERNIGHT AS
REMNANTS FROM TD BILL MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE EXACT TIMING
AND TRACK OF THE STORM AND HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET IS STILL UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME BUT THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS. IF RAINS FROM TD BILL ARE STEADY OVER 12 TO
24 HOURS THEN THE RAIN WILL HELP MITIGATE A DROUGHT WATCH OVER
PORTIONS OF PA. BUT IF HEAVY RAINS COME IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME
SUCH AS A FEW HOURS...THEN FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING COULD BE A
CONCERN PARTICULARLY FOR SMALLER STREAMS. MODELS SHOW THE REMNANTS
OF BILL INTERACTING WITH A FRONT ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY AND
MOVING OFF THE COAST MONDAY. HOWEVER THERE APPEARS TO BE DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS ON WHETHER THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION OUT OR HANGS UP
AGAIN ACROSS THE STATE WITH ANOTHER WITH ANOTHER WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST RADAR SHOWS A PRECIPITATION BAND CONTINUING TO MOVE THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST...AFFECTING MDT AND LNS. THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EASTWARD AND SHOULD ALLOW MDT AND LNS TO CLEAR BETWEEN 07 TO
09Z. HOWEVER AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT TO CALM AND TEMPS DROP LOW CIGS
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES WILL ENVELOP THE REGION. CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH MOIST LOWER
LEVELS IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE PRECIPITATION
IS STILL ONGOING. ALL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING MVFR/IFR/LIFR CIGS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AIRSPACE WITH THE LOWERING CIGS AND AREAS OF
LIGHT FOG...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN HIGH LLVL MSTR AND
LGT/SOUTH/EAST LLVL FLOW.
LOW CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE INTO THURSDAY AFTN WITH THE
MAIN TSTM RISK CENTERED OVER THE FAR WRN AIRSPACE IN ZOB SECTOR.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...BCMG VFR.
SAT-MON...VFR/MVFR WITH PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA. LOCALLY +RA PSBL SAT
NGT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...WATSON/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
200 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HOT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SPREADING OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES
WILL KEEP NORTHERN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS STALLED OUT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO NEXT WEEK. EXPECT PERIODS
OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR IN THIS PATTERN WITH AN
ENHANCED RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF BILL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR TRENDS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS MOD TO LOCALLY HVY RAFL MOVG
THRU THE LWR SUSQ VLY...ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PA TURNPIKE. THIS
PCPN IS ASSOCD WITH H5 S/WV MOVING EWD ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THE WESTERLIES...ALIGNED WITHIN BAND OF PERSISTENTLY HIGH PWS
POOLED ALONG EAST/WEST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EWD
FROM THE MID MS/OH VLY. THE LATEST HRRR IS SUGGESTING THAT THIS
AREA OF RAIN WILL EXIT THE LNS AREA BY 09Z. UPSTREAM RADAR OVER
ERN OH SHOWS VERY LIGHT RETURNS MOVG INTO SW PA ASSOCD WITH NEXT
PIECE OF H5 S/WV ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE WLY FLOW ALOFT LOCATED ON
NRN PERIPHERY OF HOT RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. INDICATIONS
FROM MESO GUIDANCE SUPPORT LOWERING POPS AFT 09Z AND MAY NEED TO
ADJUST DOWNWARD AGAIN WITH NEXT UPDATE. UNTIL THEN WILL MAINTAIN
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SRN 1/3 OF THE CWA THRU DAYBREAK.
THE FCST FOR LATER TODAY/THIS AFTN STILL LOOKS SOMEWHAT MESSY
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND DURING THE MORNING AS SHORTWAVE
PASSES EAST OF PA. THE NAM SUGGESTS MUCH OF THE CWA WILL BECOME
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE BY THE AFTERNOON AS SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS NE
THRU THE AREA AND SKIES BECOME PTSUNNY. PORTIONS OF ERN PA COULD
REMAIN CLOUDY/STABLE EAST OF WARM FRONT WITH NAM LI PROGS STRONGLY
POSITIVE FROM NJ INTO THE POCONOS. THAT SHOULD KEEP THE RISK OF
LATE DAY TSTMS CONFINED TO WRN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. THE LATEST SPC SLIGHT RISK WAS SHIFTED SEWD FROM THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU TO INCLUDE ALL OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS INTO THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL MTNS WHERE WEAK WARM/FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
SET UP.
A MID-LVL TROUGH CROSSING SERN CANADA WILL PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT
ACROSS SRN LWR MI INTO WRN NY BY LATE TNGT. AN AXIS OF HI PWS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MID-60S
DEWPOINTS IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. ML CAPE SHOULD REMAIN
MODEST GIVEN WEAK MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND MULTI-LAYER CLOUDS. BELT
OF STRONGER MID-LVL WESTERLIES SHOULD EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD THE
WARM SECTOR AND PROMOTE RISK FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS
THU EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF BETTER HEATING/CLOUD BREAKS
WHERE LLVL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN. DRIER AIR SHOULD START TO
WORK INTO NWRN PA LATE TNGT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE SFC COLD
FRONT PUSHES SWD ACRS SOUTH-CENTRAL PA TOWARD THE MASON DIXON
LINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY IS LOOKING MAINLY DRY OVERALL AS DRIER/LOWER PW AIR MAKES
A PUSH INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER STILL CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM OVER SOUTHERN PA
WHERE PWS REMAIN MARGINAL AND MODELS SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY. A
RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT LOOKS IN STORE ACROSS NRN AREAS WITH SOME
OVERNIGHT READINGS POSSIBLY IN THE UPPER 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NORTHERN PA WILL BE COOL AND DRY INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND
SEASONABLE ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE HIGH CENTER SLIPS EAST OFF THE
COAST SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY OVERNIGHT AS
REMNANTS FROM TD BILL MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE EXACT TIMING
AND TRACK OF THE STORM AND HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET IS STILL UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME BUT THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS. IF RAINS FROM TD BILL ARE STEADY OVER 12 TO
24 HOURS THEN THE RAIN WILL HELP MITIGATE A DROUGHT WATCH OVER
PORTIONS OF PA. BUT IF HEAVY RAINS COME IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME
SUCH AS A FEW HOURS...THEN FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING COULD BE A
CONCERN PARTICULARLY FOR SMALLER STREAMS. MODELS SHOW THE REMNANTS
OF BILL INTERACTING WITH A FRONT ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY AND
MOVING OFF THE COAST MONDAY. HOWEVER THERE APPEARS TO BE DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS ON WHETHER THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION OUT OR HANGS UP
AGAIN ACROSS THE STATE WITH ANOTHER WITH ANOTHER WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONDS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THIS EVE AS LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOW ANY
SIG RAIN SHOWERS STAYING SOUTH OF THE PA/MD BORDER ATTM. CIGS
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH MOIST
LOWER LEVELS IN PLACE. ALL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING MVFR/IFR/LIFR CIGS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AIRSPACE WITH THE LOWERING CIGS AND AREAS OF
LIGHT FOG...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN HIGH LLVL MSTR AND
LGT/SOUTH/EAST LLVL FLOW.
LOW CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE INTO THURS AFTN WITH THE MAIN
TSTM RISK CENTERED OVER THE FAR WRN AIRSPACE IN ZOB SECTOR.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...BCMG VFR.
SAT-MON...VFR/MVFR WITH PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA. LOCALLY +RA PSBL SAT
NGT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL/WATSON
LONG TERM...WATSON/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1241 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 841 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST MT THIS EVENING WERE HEADING SOUTHEAST
INTO NORTHWEST SD. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SHOWED THIS CONVECTION
HOLDING TOGETHER AND EXPANDING SOME AS IT HEADS SOUTHEAST INTO
PARTS OF CENTRAL SD LATER TONIGHT. MAY ADJUST CHANCES UP A LITTLE
AS IT GETS CLOSER. NOT MUCH FOR INSTABILITY INTO CENTRAL SD ALONG
WITH ANY LLJ.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
AS EXPECTED...CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO ERODE TODAY BUT SKIES HAVE
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER CENTRAL SD. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...WILL BE
WATCHING WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY ENTERING THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AS A
WEAK LOW LEVEL JET ALSO DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. MODELS AGREE FAIRLY WELL IN BRINGING A COMPLEX OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS WESTERN SD THEN INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AREAL
COVERAGE OF ANY POTENTIAL COMPLEX IS THE BIG QUESTION. WILL KEEP
POPS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME BUT EVENING/OVERNIGHT SHIFT MAY NEED TO
INCREASE POPS ONCE THIS BEGINS TO EVOLVE. MUCAPE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWEST CWA DOES SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT WITH DECENT
AMOUNTS OF SHEAR. COULD POSSIBLY BE A FEW STRONGER STORMS OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING LOOK GENERALLY DRY ACROSS THE AREA AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS MN AND INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
AS THE INITIAL PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS. UNFORTUNATELY THERE IS NOT A LOT OF AGREEMENT AMONGST THE
MODELS IN REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND PLACEMENT
OF BEST CONVERGENCE. NOT MUCH AGREEMENT ON WHERE THE POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL BE AS WELL.
WILL THEN BE WATCHING FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE INCREASING
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS. SFC DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE 60S TO
NEAR 70 DEGREES ON FRIDAY. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPS
BY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT MODELS DO STILL SHOW RATHER WARM TEMPS
ALOFT SPREADING OVER THE REGION...SO CAPPING WILL BE AN ISSUE. SFC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE EVENING HOURS
WITH MODELS TRYING TO GENERATE CONVECTION. THE CONVERGENCE ALONG
THIS FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH TO BUST THROUGH THE CAP AND IF THIS
HAPPENS...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE SVR
PARAMETERS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES AT 500 AND 700MB
WILL EXIT THE REGION SAT MORNING. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS/TSTORMS EARLY. ANOTHER WEAKER LOW WILL MOVES ACROSS ND SAT
NIGHT/SUN MORNING BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTORMS.
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY QUICK MOVING
SFC LOWS AND SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK. MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY RESOLVING
TIMING AND AREAL EXTENT AS IS TYPICAL WITH THESE PATTERNS SO STUCK
WITH A MODEL BLENDED BROAD BRUSH APPROACH.
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE MID 80S THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OUT WEST MAY AFFECT THE PIR
AREA FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON OUT WEST AND
MAY AFFECT PIR AND MBG THURSDAY EVENING.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...TDK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
355 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
.DISCUSSION...
RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BILL STILL HAS A GOOD CIRCULATION THAT WAS CENTERED
NORTHWEST OF DURANT OKLAHOMA AS OF 330 AM. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
CONTINUED ALONG THE RED RIVER COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS AND THE
MAIN FEEDER BAND EXTENDED SOUTHEAST OF A COLLEGE STATION TO TYLER
TO TEXARKANA LINE.
THE QUESTION FOR TODAY IS HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL THE FORECAST
AREA HAVE. THE COMPUTER MODELS VARY QUITE A LOT ON THIS QUESTION
WITH THE NAM KEEPING MOST OF THE RAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF
I-20 LATE AFTERNOON. THE HRRR AND TEXAS TECH MODELS INDICATE THAT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TODAY PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST
OF A SULPHUR SPRINGS TO COMANCHE LINE WITH SOME BANDS OF LIGHTER
RAIN NORTH OF I-20. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT THE BEST POPS/60 TO 80
PERCENT/ ALONG THE RED RIVER AND ALSO EAST OF I-35. HAVE KEPT A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALONG THE RED RIVER...AND ALSO FOR AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF A BONHAM TO TERRELL TO HILLSBORO TO KILLEEN LINE UNTIL
7 PM. WE TOYED WITH THE IDEA OF A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS NORTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR TODAY...BUT DECIDED INSTEAD TO GO
WITH WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 80 IN THE NORTHEAST THE LOWER 90S
ACROSS THE WEST.
58
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 112 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015/
/06Z TAFS/
CONCERNS...CEILINGS.
AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL MOVES INTO OKLAHOMA...IT WILL TAKE ITS
PRECIPITATION WITH IT. IN ADDITION...WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO
STEADILY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT...WITH A PREVAILING SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION.
MVFR CEILINGS ARE JUST UPSTREAM OF WACO...AND EXPECT THAT THESE
WILL INVADE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. GUIDANCE STILL
SUGGESTS SIMILAR CONDITIONS IN THE METROPLEX...BUT WITH THE DRY
SLOT IN PLACE...THIS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK WHEN THE
SUN HEATS THE MOIST SURFACE LAYER. FOR NOW...HAVE MVFR CEILINGS
ARRIVING AT 09Z...AT WHICH POINT THE SITUATION CAN BE REASSESSED
FOR THE ROUTINE AMENDMENTS. THE CEILINGS SHOULD STEADILY CLIMB ON
THURSDAY. WACO WILL BE THE FARTHEST FROM THE LINGERING WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE AND WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SCATTER OUT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
25
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 89 74 93 76 92 / 50 20 20 10 5
WACO, TX 90 73 92 74 91 / 50 20 20 5 10
PARIS, TX 80 71 88 73 90 / 80 50 20 10 10
DENTON, TX 86 70 92 74 91 / 50 20 20 10 5
MCKINNEY, TX 86 71 92 73 91 / 60 30 20 10 10
DALLAS, TX 89 75 93 76 91 / 50 20 20 10 10
TERRELL, TX 87 72 92 74 90 / 60 30 20 10 10
CORSICANA, TX 86 73 91 73 90 / 60 20 20 5 10
TEMPLE, TX 89 72 90 73 90 / 50 20 20 5 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 91 70 92 72 92 / 40 20 20 5 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091>095-105>107-
120>123-134-135-145>148-158>162-174-175.
&&
$$
91/58
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1157 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2015
.DISCUSSION...
See 06z aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are generally expected for the next 24 hours. There
is a slight chance of storms moving into the CNM and HOB areas
tonight. Winds will generally remain light out of the south to
southeast.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2015/
DISCUSSION...
Isolated showers have developed over the area this afternoon on
the backside of Tropical Cyclone Bill which is now about to cross
the Red River into OK. The majority of this activity will stay in
the eastern Permian Basin before diminishing after sunset. As Bill
lifts northeast, an upper ridge will try to build east across the
Southern Plains. Before it does so, our region will remain in weak
northerly mid level flow. If thunderstorms form over the TX
Panhandle or NE NM later this afternoon or Thursday they will move
south and may make it to the area during the overnight hours. Both
the HRRR and WRF-NMM show a complex of showers and storms moving
across eastern NM and W TX overnight. Rain chances diminish Friday
into the weekend as the upper ridge takes hold on the area. Will
need to monitor the strength of the ridge as recent models have
shown a weakness/inverted trough developing over South Texas and
slowly drifting it west. This solution could bring a few showers
and storms back to the area from the east late in the weekend into
next week.
Much warmer conditions are expected tomorrow as mid level
temperatures increase quite a bit. Expect highs to be about 5 to 10
degrees warmer than today. Temperatures will moderate somewhat into
the weekend as easterly flow sets up along with abundant low level
moisture. If we see the inverted trough move across the area early
next week, high temperatures may struggle to get out of the 80s!
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
99
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1117 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
CONVECTION HAS BEEN DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO
CENTRAL IOWA ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY AND AHEAD OF WEAK
SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THIS ACTIVITY HAS FORMED IN
AN AXIS OF ABOUT 1000 J/KG OF ML CAPE WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40
TO 45 KNOTS. THE 17.18Z RAP SUGGESTS THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
VERY SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND THAT
THE CAPE AXIS WILL ESSENTIALLY REMAIN IN PLACE. THE RAP ALSO
INDICATES THE BEST SHEAR IS OCCURRING RIGHT NOW AND THIS SHOULD
THEN DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON TO 35 KNOTS OR LESS IN THE 0-6 KM
LAYER ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 AND 25 KNOTS OR LESS OVER
THE ENTIRE AREA IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER. MOST OF THE HI-RES MESO
MODELS SHOW A TREND OF CONTINUED EXPANSION OF THE STORMS THROUGH
ABOUT 21Z OR 22Z AND THEN SHOW A DIMINISHING TREND AS THE SHEAR
DROPS OFF. THE RAP CONTINUES TO SHOW A VERY TALL AND SKINNY CAPE
PROFILE IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR KRST SO BELIEVE LOCAL
DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WITH AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT ONE OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME
SUB SEVERE HAIL OR WIND GUSTS. THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH
HELPING THIS ACTIVITY WAS COMING ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA AND WILL
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. THE RAP ALSO
CONTINUES TO SHOW ONLY WEAK FORCING FROM THIS WAVE WHICH SHOULD
HELP TO KEEP THE CONVECTION MORE ON THE SCATTERED SIDE. PLAN TO
START THE EARLY EVENING WITH AROUND A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OVER THE
NORTHWEST AHEAD OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY AND THEN QUICKLY TREND
THIS DOWN TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE EVENING
AS THE CAPE DIMINISHES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OUT OF CANADA THURSDAY AND DRIFT
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS HIGH WILL
PROVIDE A SHORT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN ZONAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO COME ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THE 17.12Z NAM AND GFS INDICATE THIS WAVE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME WEAK PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB
LAYER. THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE SLOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD INDICATED SO HAVE LIMITED THE RAIN CHANCES
TO THE 20 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH THE WEAK PV ADVECTION SHOULD MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING WEAK TO POSSIBLY SOME
MODERATE FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 1000-700 MB LAYER AND THEN WEAK
ABOVE THAT UP TO 500 MB. THE ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE ON THE 305K
SURFACE AHEAD OF THE WAVE LOOKS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 3
UBAR/S. FOR NOW WILL STAY WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH 50 TO 60
PERCENT RAIN CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH IN THIS SOLUTION GIVEN THE LACK PV ADVECTION AND THE NEUTRAL
TO SLIGHTLY POSITIVE TILT TO THE WAVE. AFTER THAT...THE ZONAL FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS COMING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOME RAIN
CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES CENTERED ON MONDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
AREA OF VFR/MVFR CIGS SLIDING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
MN/NORTHWEST WI. THESE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES...BUT THE
UNCERTAINTY LIES WITH WHETHER VFR OR MVFR CIGS WILL BE PREDOMINANT.
MOSTLY VFR INDICATED IN LATEST OBS. WITH THE EVENING RAINS FURTHER
MOISTENING THE BOUNDARY LAYER - SUB 3 KFT WOULD SEEM FAVORED.
RAP/HRRR/NAM12 RH FIELDS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS POINT TO AN MVFR DECK
OF STRATUS STICKING AROUND/DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...POTENTIALLY
HOLDING A FEW HOURS PAST 12Z THU. WILL KEEP THE TAFS POINTED IN THIS
DIRECTION...AND MONITOR TRENDS. CONFIDENCE NOT OVERLY HIGH
HERE...BUT ENOUGH INDICATORS THAT FAVOR INCLUDING THE LOWER CIGS.
EXPECT A BREAK UP OF THE LOW CIGS - IF THEY DEVELOP - BY MID MORNING
THU AS THE AREA GRADUALLY COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1123 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM`S
ASSOCIATED BOUNDARIES WILL BRING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT, A
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL RETURN FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT IS GRADUALLY APPROACHING AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
AS A COLD FRONT BEARS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH TONIGHT. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER ADJUSTED THEIR OUTLOOK FOR THE LOCAL AREA AND NOW ONLY THE
NORTHWESTERN MOST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA...HERKIMER AND
HAMILTON COUNTIES...IS UNDER MARGINAL RISK. CLOUD COVER WILL
LIMIT POTENTIAL INSTABILITY.
MOISTURE PROFILES WILL INCREASE AND EMBEDDED WITHIN A FAST WEST-EAST
ZONAL FLOW A FEW SUBTLE SHORT WAVES SO CAN NOT RULE OUT WIDELY
SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY WITH CHANCES
FOR THUNDER AS THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER LATE IN THE
DAY. THE HRRR INDICATES CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING.
COLD FRONT PROGRESSING THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA IS FORECAST TO
TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND UPSTATE NY THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL ASSIST WITH ENHANCING THE LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR MORE SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES REMAIN RATHER POOR AND DUE TO THE NOCTURNAL TIMING OF
FROPA ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWFA...SEVERE POTENTIAL
LOOKS VERY LOW. LATEST COORDINATION FROM SPC ALSO SUGGESTS A LOW
END MARGINAL RISK WEST AND NORTHWEST OF ALBANY SO WE WILL MENTION
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH MAINLY SHOWERS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. MOS NUMBERS ARE RATHER SIMILAR AS A BLENDED
APPROACH WAS UTILIZED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRIDAY...AS MODEL TRENDS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE FROPA...WE
WILL RETAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF I90 IN THE MORNING.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING
THE MORNING HOURS WITH FROPA AS IMPROVING SKY COVERAGE COMMENCES FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. THE TERRAIN MAY HOLD ONTO SOME CLOUD COVERAGE BUT
EVENTUALLY THE SUBSIDENCE SEEN IN THE OMEGA FIELDS WITHIN THE
NCEP MODEL SUITE WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE. H850 TEMPS COOL
BACK INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS BY THE END OF THE DAY WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS SUGGEST WE WILL HAVE THE
OPPORTUNITY TO TAP INTO HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT FOR SURFACE
WIND GUSTS NEAR 20KTS.
A COOL AND PLEASANT EVENING IS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT WITH IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EVOLVING AS THE CANADIAN SFC HIGH
MOVES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND. H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +6C TO
+8C RANGE FROM THE I90 CORRIDOR AND POINTS NORTH...AND +8C TO
+10C TO THE SOUTH. LOWS WILL BE IN THE U40S TO L50S FROM THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION SOUTH...AND 40-45F TO THE
NORTH...PERHAPS A FEW ISOLD U30S IN THE SRN DACKS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY ZONAL UPPER PATTERN ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF FLAT
UPPER RIDGING IN THE EASTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE THE VERY CHANGEABLE
WEATHER FROM DAY TO DAY...THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS PATTERN
OF WHAT SEEMS TO BE ALTERNATING ONE OR TWO DRY DAYS THEN ONE OR TWO
WET DAYS SHOULD CONTINUE AS WEST MEAN FLOW KEEPS FEEDING UPPER
ENERGY AND MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION EVERY DAY OR TWO.
APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY SATURDAY NIGHT MAY INTERACT WITH
THE REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM AND PROVIDE GENERALLY UNSETTLED
WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO
INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT...REACHING LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY (AROUND 70
PERCENT)...THEN DECREASING POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY. IT WILL BECOME QUITE HUMID DURING THIS PERIOD WITH DEWPOINTS
RISING INTO THE 60S IN MOST PLACES. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 70S TO
LOWER 80S.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY...BUT WITH LINGERING TROFINESS
ALOFT...A SHOWER OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...SO HAVE KEPT
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. BECOMING LESS HUMID
MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER AND LOWS 50 TO 60.
ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL AFFECT OUR REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO HAVE FORECAST NO HIGHER THAN 30
PERCENT POPS DURING THIS PERIOD. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE 70 TO 80.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY
AND BRING PLEASANT WEATHER. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 60S AND 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT IS GRADUALLY APPROACHING AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
AS A COLD FRONT BEARS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH TONIGHT.
VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS AREA WITH VFR-MVFR
CEILINGS. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND EMBEDDED WITHIN A FAST WEST-
EAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS REGION THERE ARE A FEW SUBTLE SHORT WAVES
SO CAN NOT RULE OUT WIDELY SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE DAY WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDER AS THE WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER LATE IN THE DAY. THE HRRR INDICATES
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING.
AS THREAT FOR SHOWERS BECOMES MORE NUMEROUS AND HAVE FORECAST
MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES DUE TO SHOWERS. TSTMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE...BUT THE CHANCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME. LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THE
SHOWERS WILL END AND THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST OR NORTH
BEHIND A COLD FRONT...BUT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS
OF AROUND 15 KTS AT KALB. THESE WIND CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE
WELL INTO THURSDAY NIGHT....THEN SHIFT TO NORTH OR NORTHWEST
BETWEEN 08Z AND 11Z FRIDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDS ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST INTO TONIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF
A COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DECREASE TO 45 TO 65 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON. THE RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO CLOSE TO 100
PERCENT TONIGHT.
THE WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 5-10 MPH THIS
MORNING...AND BE SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THEN SHIFT TO THE W TO NW AT 5 TO 15 MPH THURSDAY NIGHT. A
NORTHERLY BREEZE FRIDAY WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER LEVELS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RECEDE INTO
THURSDAY...WITH SOME POSSIBLE RISES ON THE WEEKEND.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM ONE TENTH TO A THIRD AN INCH
WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION.
WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...AS THE MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL ENTITY BILL MAY IMPACT
PARTS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/BGM
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...IAA/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
639 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT OVER WESTERN NEW YORK
AND PENNSYLVANIA TODAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...AS A COOLER
AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 625 AM EDT...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. DID
LOWER POPS THIS MORNING BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AS THE HRRR APPEARS
TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SHOWERS THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS.
PREV DISC...A VARIETY OF CLOUD TYPES REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
WITH SCT- BKN LOWER STRATUS FROM I90 SOUTHWARD AND A CANOPY OF
BKN- OVC HIGH CLOUDS THAT CONTINUE TO THICKEN. SO WE WILL GO WITH
A MOCLDY FORECAST THE REMAINDER OF THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD.
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...MOISTURE PROFILES WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AND EMBEDDED WITHIN A FAST WEST-EAST ZONAL FLOW AS
CLEARLY SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR IMAGERY...A FEW SUBTLE SHORT WAVES
WHICH WE CAN NOT RULE OUT WIDELY SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY. THE LATEST HRRR REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS COINCIDES
WITH THESE IDEAS AS WE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE DAY. DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE...WE
WILL FORECAST TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.
COLD FRONT PROGRESSING THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA IS FORECAST TO
TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND UPSTATE NY THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL ASSIST WITH ENHANCING THE LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR MORE SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES REMAIN RATHER POOR AND DUE TO THE NOCTURNAL TIMING OF
FROPA ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWFA...SEVERE POTENTIAL
LOOKS VERY LOW. LATEST COORDINATION FROM SPC ALSO SUGGESTS A LOW
END MARGINAL RISK WEST AND NORTHWEST OF ALBANY SO WE WILL MENTION
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH MAINLY SHOWERS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. MOS NUMBERS ARE RATHER SIMILAR AS A BLENDED
APPROACH WAS UTILIZED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRIDAY...AS MODEL TRENDS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE FROPA...WE
WILL RETAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF I90 IN THE MORNING.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING
THE MORNING HOURS WITH FROPA AS IMPROVING SKY COVERAGE COMMENCES FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. THE TERRAIN MAY HOLD ONTO SOME CLOUD COVERAGE BUT
EVENTUALLY THE SUBSIDENCE SEEN IN THE OMEGA FIELDS WITHIN THE
NCEP MODEL SUITE WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE. H850 TEMPS COOL
BACK INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS BY THE END OF THE DAY WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS SUGGEST WE WILL HAVE THE
OPPORTUNITY TO TAP INTO HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT FOR SURFACE
WIND GUSTS NEAR 20KTS.
A COOL AND PLEASANT EVENING IS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT WITH IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EVOLVING AS THE CANADIAN SFC HIGH
MOVES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND. H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +6C TO
+8C RANGE FROM THE I90 CORRIDOR AND POINTS NORTH...AND +8C TO
+10C TO THE SOUTH. LOWS WILL BE IN THE U40S TO L50S FROM THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION SOUTH...AND 40-45F TO THE
NORTH...PERHAPS A FEW ISOLD U30S IN THE SRN DACKS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY ZONAL UPPER PATTERN ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF FLAT
UPPER RIDGING IN THE EASTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE THE VERY CHANGEABLE
WEATHER FROM DAY TO DAY...THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS PATTERN
OF WHAT SEEMS TO BE ALTERNATING ONE OR TWO DRY DAYS THEN ONE OR TWO
WET DAYS SHOULD CONTINUE AS WEST MEAN FLOW KEEPS FEEDING UPPER
ENERGY AND MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION EVERY DAY OR TWO.
APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY SATURDAY NIGHT MAY INTERACT WITH
THE REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM AND PROVIDE GENERALLY UNSETTLED
WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO
INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT...REACHING LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY (AROUND 70
PERCENT)...THEN DECREASING POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY. IT WILL BECOME QUITE HUMID DURING THIS PERIOD WITH DEWPOINTS
RISING INTO THE 60S IN MOST PLACES. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 70S TO
LOWER 80S.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY...BUT WITH LINGERING TROFINESS
ALOFT...A SHOWER OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...SO HAVE KEPT
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. BECOMING LESS HUMID
MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER AND LOWS 50 TO 60.
ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL AFFECT OUR REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO HAVE FORECAST NO HIGHER THAN 30
PERCENT POPS DURING THIS PERIOD. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE 70 TO 80.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY
AND BRING PLEASANT WEATHER. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 60S AND 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND
THE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND IT WAS BRINGING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO THE REGION. MVFR STRATUS HAVE MOVED INTO KALB/KGFL...
WITH IFR/MVFR STRATUS AT KPSF. CIGS WERE 5000 FEET AT KPOU. THE
MVFR/IFR STRATUS SHOULD LINGER UNTIL MID MORNING BEFORE MIXING
OUT. GENERALLY CLOUDY BUT WITH A VFR CLOUD DECK WILL OCCUR AT THE
TAF SITES FOR THE REST OF TODAY. AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND COLD
FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST...THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AT THE TAF SITES LATE THIS AFTN...AND HAVE INDICATED VCSH
AT THE TAF SITES STARTING 20Z/21Z...AND A FEW HOURS EARLIER (16Z)
AT KPOU. BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z FRIDAY...THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS AND HAVE FORECAST MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES
DUE TO SHOWERS. TSTMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT THE CHANCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THE SHOWERS WILL END AND THE WIND WILL SHIFT
TO NORTHWEST OR NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT...BUT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS
OF AROUND 15 KTS AT KALB. THESE WIND CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE
WELL INTO THURSDAY NIGHT....THEN SHIFT TO NORTH OR NORTHWEST
BETWEEN 08Z AND 11Z FRIDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDS ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST INTO TONIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF
A COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DECREASE TO 45 TO 65 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON. THE RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO CLOSE TO 100
PERCENT TONIGHT.
THE WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 5-10 MPH THIS
MORNING...AND BE SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THEN SHIFT TO THE W TO NW AT 5 TO 15 MPH THURSDAY NIGHT. A
NORTHERLY BREEZE FRIDAY WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER LEVELS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RECEDE INTO
THURSDAY...WITH SOME POSSIBLE RISES ON THE WEEKEND.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM ONE TENTH TO A THIRD AN INCH
WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION.
WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...AS THE MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL ENTITY BILL MAY IMPACT
PARTS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
627 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT OVER WESTERN NEW YORK
AND PENNSYLVANIA TODAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...AS A COOLER
AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 625 AM EDT...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. DID
LOWER POPS THIS MORNING BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AS THE HRRR APPEARS
TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SHOWERS THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS.
PREV DISC...A VARIETY OF CLOUD TYPES REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
WITH SCT- BKN LOWER STRATUS FROM I90 SOUTHWARD AND A CANOPY OF
BKN- OVC HIGH CLOUDS THAT CONTINUE TO THICKEN. SO WE WILL GO WITH
A MOCLDY FORECAST THE REMAINDER OF THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD.
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...MOISTURE PROFILES WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AND EMBEDDED WITHIN A FAST WEST-EAST ZONAL FLOW AS
CLEARLY SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR IMAGERY...A FEW SUBTLE SHORT WAVES
WHICH WE CAN NOT RULE OUT WIDELY SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY. THE LATEST HRRR REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS COINCIDES
WITH THESE IDEAS AS WE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE DAY. DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE...WE
WILL FORECAST TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.
COLD FRONT PROGRESSING THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA IS FORECAST TO
TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND UPSTATE NY THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL ASSIST WITH ENHANCING THE LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR MORE SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES REMAIN RATHER POOR AND DUE TO THE NOCTURNAL TIMING OF
FROPA ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWFA...SEVERE POTENTIAL
LOOKS VERY LOW. LATEST COORDINATION FROM SPC ALSO SUGGESTS A LOW
END MARGINAL RISK WEST AND NORTHWEST OF ALBANY SO WE WILL MENTION
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH MAINLY SHOWERS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. MOS NUMBERS ARE RATHER SIMILAR AS A BLENDED
APPROACH WAS UTILIZED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRIDAY...AS MODEL TRENDS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE FROPA...WE
WILL RETAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF I90 IN THE MORNING.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING
THE MORNING HOURS WITH FROPA AS IMPROVING SKY COVERAGE COMMENCES FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. THE TERRAIN MAY HOLD ONTO SOME CLOUD COVERAGE BUT
EVENTUALLY THE SUBSIDENCE SEEN IN THE OMEGA FIELDS WITHIN THE
NCEP MODEL SUITE WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE. H850 TEMPS COOL
BACK INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS BY THE END OF THE DAY WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS SUGGEST WE WILL HAVE THE
OPPORTUNITY TO TAP INTO HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT FOR SURFACE
WIND GUSTS NEAR 20KTS.
A COOL AND PLEASANT EVENING IS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT WITH IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EVOLVING AS THE CANADIAN SFC HIGH
MOVES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND. H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +6C TO
+8C RANGE FROM THE I90 CORRIDOR AND POINTS NORTH...AND +8C TO
+10C TO THE SOUTH. LOWS WILL BE IN THE U40S TO L50S FROM THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION SOUTH...AND 40-45F TO THE
NORTH...PERHAPS A FEW ISOLD U30S IN THE SRN DACKS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY ZONAL UPPER PATTERN ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF FLAT
UPPER RIDGING IN THE EASTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE THE VERY CHANGEABLE
WEATHER FROM DAY TO DAY...THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS PATTERN
OF WHAT SEEMS TO BE ALTERNATING ONE OR TWO DRY DAYS THEN ONE OR TWO
WET DAYS SHOULD CONTINUE AS WEST MEAN FLOW KEEPS FEEDING UPPER
ENERGY AND MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION EVERY DAY OR TWO.
APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY SATURDAY NIGHT MAY INTERACT WITH
THE REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM AND PROVIDE GENERALLY UNSETTLED
WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO
INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT...REACHING LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY (AROUND 70
PERCENT)...THEN DECREASING POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY. IT WILL BECOME QUITE HUMID DURING THIS PERIOD WITH DEWPOINTS
RISING INTO THE 60S IN MOST PLACES. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 70S TO
LOWER 80S.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY...BUT WITH LINGERING TROFINESS
ALOFT...A SHOWER OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...SO HAVE KEPT
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. BECOMING LESS HUMID
MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER AND LOWS 50 TO 60.
ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL AFFECT OUR REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO HAVE FORECAST NO HIGHER THAN 30
PERCENT POPS DURING THIS PERIOD. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE 70 TO 80.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY
AND BRING PLEASANT WEATHER. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 60S AND 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM...HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES. ONLY SOME HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH A LOWER VFR STRATOCU DECK
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. THE CLOUDINESS AND DRY AIR ACROSS THE
REGION SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AND INTO EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING. THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER...WHILE THE
LOWER CLOUD DECK PERSISTS ACROSS THE SOUTH. AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST...THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AT THE TAF SITES LATE THURSDAY AFTN...AND HAVE INDICATED
VCSH AT THE TAF SITES STARTING 20Z/21Z...AND A FEW HOURS EARLIER
(16Z) AT KPOU. BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z FRIDAY...THE SHOWERS WILL
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND HAVE FORECAST MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF
SITES DUE TO SHOWERS. TSTMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT THE CHANCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
MAINLY CALM CONDITIONS THROUGH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE...THEN
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF AROUND
15 KTS AT KALB. THESE WIND CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDS ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST INTO TONIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF
A COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DECREASE TO 45 TO 65 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON. THE RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO CLOSE TO 100
PERCENT TONIGHT.
THE WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 5-10 MPH THIS
MORNING...AND BE SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THEN SHIFT TO THE W TO NW AT 5 TO 15 MPH THURSDAY NIGHT. A
NORTHERLY BREEZE FRIDAY WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER LEVELS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RECEDE INTO
THURSDAY...WITH SOME POSSIBLE RISES ON THE WEEKEND.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM ONE TENTH TO A THIRD AN INCH
WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION.
WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...AS THE MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL ENTITY BILL MAY IMPACT
PARTS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1044 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE THE PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING
WHICH LIFTED DURING MID MORNING. OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK
TODAY AS CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES DURING THE
REST OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON FROM I-72 SOUTH WHERE
LIKELY CHANCES CONTINUE. KILX 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUE OF 1.52 INCHES AND NAM FORECAST THESE VALUES TO
INCREASE BETWEEN 1.50-2.25 INCHES DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM IL
RIVER SOUTHEAST. SO THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS FROM IL RIVER SOUTHEAST. SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK EAST OF IL OVER
IN/OH WHERE BETTER INSTABLITY WILL BE FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS FROM WET MICROBURSTS. BUT MARGINAL RISK EXIST FROM ALONG THE IL
RIVER SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL. REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM BILL OVER EASTERN OK
WHERE 580 DM 500 MB LOW IS...WILL TRACK SLOWLY ENE INTO THE
OZARKS OF NW AR BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND INCREASE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT INTO CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY
SOUTHEAST IL THROUGH FRI NIGHT. TROPICAL HUMIDITY AGAIN TODAY
WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
08Z/3AM RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. WITH MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
STORM BILL FLOWING NORTHEASTWARD AND A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO
THE NORTHWEST KILX CWA TODAY...THINK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. 06Z NAM INDICATES
FRONT WILL REACH A BLOOMINGTON TO RUSHVILLE LINE BY LATE
AFTERNOON...ESSENTIALLY ENDING ANY RAIN CHANCES TO THE NORTH.
FURTHER SOUTH...HIGHEST POPS APPEAR TO BE CONCENTRATED ON BOTH THE
NAM AND HRRR ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF A CHAMPAIGN TO SPRINGFIELD LINE.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE TRACK OF BILL AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF THE KILX
CWA. 00Z JUNE 18 MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT...SHOWING
A FURTHER SOUTH TRACK AND A MORE COMPACT AREA OF ASSOCIATED PRECIP.
MODEL CONSENSUS TAKES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA
THIS EVENING...TO THE OZARKS BY FRIDAY EVENING...THEN INTO SOUTHERN
INDIANA BY SATURDAY. GIVEN THIS PARTICULAR TRACK...THE SOUTHEAST
CWA WILL BE FAVORED FOR THE HEAVIEST RAIN FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. BASED ON MODEL TRENDS AND THE PRESENCE OF
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ON THE N/NW SIDE OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM...HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. HAVE FOCUSED LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70...WITH CHANCE POPS AS FAR NORTHWEST AS THE
ILLINOIS RIVER. FURTHER NORTHWEST...HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A DRY
FORECAST IN THE GALESBURG/LACON AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH
UNSEASONABLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES...ANY
STORMS THAT OCCUR DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY HIGH
RAINFALL RATES AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. EXPECTED RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 2 TO 2.50 RANGE SOUTH OF I-
70...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE LIKELY. DESPITE
EXPECTED HEAVY RAINFALL...OPTED NOT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT
THIS TIME...MAINLY DUE TO THE FACT THAT THIS AREA MISSED THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL FROM A COUPLE DAYS AGO. THERE ARE ALSO SOME SIGNS
THAT THE SYSTEM COULD TRACK EVEN FURTHER SOUTH...SHIFTING THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA.
ONCE BILL DEPARTS...LINGERING MORNING RAIN ACROSS THE E/SE WILL COME
TO AN END BY MIDDAY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE BOARD SATURDAY AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BRINGING RAIN
CHANCES BACK INTO THE PICTURE.
AFTER THAT...A VERY WARM AND OCCASIONALLY WET WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS
TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. AS WAS
FIRST SEEN WITH THE GFS LAST NIGHT...LATEST ECMWF NOW ADVERTISES A
WEAKER UPPER RIDGE NEXT WEEK...WHICH KEEPS THE PREVAILING BAROCLINIC
ZONE IN OR CLOSE TO THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. HAVE
INCLUDED LOW CHANCE POPS ACCORDINGLY. HAVE TEMPORARILY PUSHED POPS
NORTH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AS RIDGE BECOMES MOST
DOMINANT...BEFORE IT BREAKS DOWN AND FRONT SAGS BACK SOUTHWARD BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
AREAS OF LIFR/VLIFR ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY IMPROVE IN THE 12-14Z
TIME FRAME AS MOST OF THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
ONLY A VERY SHALLOW MOIST LAYER NEAR THE GROUND WITH DRIER AIR
EXTENDING FROM 950 MB AND ABOVE. ONCE THAT OCCURS WE EXPECT SCATTERED
TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN CIGS AT 3000-4500 FEET BY LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE
AREA...WE MAY SEE SOME WDLY SCATTERED TSRA THIS MORNING NEAR PIA
AND BMI...AND THIS AFTN IN OUR TAF SITES TO THE SOUTH. AGAIN...WILL
COVER WITH VCTS AND KEEP AN EYE ON THE RADAR FOR THE NORTHERN TAF
LOCATIONS FOR THE MORNING ACTIVITY. WITH AS MUCH MOISTURE AS THERE
IS IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE... WE MAY BE LOOKING AT
SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG AGAIN TONIGHT SO WILL INTRODUCE THAT IN
THIS SET OF TAFS. WINDS WILL BE MORE WESTERLY AT 8 TO 15 KTS WITH
A TREND TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST OVER ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...BARNES
AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
600 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
08Z/3AM RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. WITH MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
STORM BILL FLOWING NORTHEASTWARD AND A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO
THE NORTHWEST KILX CWA TODAY...THINK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. 06Z NAM INDICATES
FRONT WILL REACH A BLOOMINGTON TO RUSHVILLE LINE BY LATE
AFTERNOON...ESSENTIALLY ENDING ANY RAIN CHANCES TO THE NORTH.
FURTHER SOUTH...HIGHEST POPS APPEAR TO BE CONCENTRATED ON BOTH THE
NAM AND HRRR ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF A CHAMPAIGN TO SPRINGFIELD LINE.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE TRACK OF BILL AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF THE KILX
CWA. 00Z JUNE 18 MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT...SHOWING
A FURTHER SOUTH TRACK AND A MORE COMPACT AREA OF ASSOCIATED PRECIP.
MODEL CONSENSUS TAKES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA
THIS EVENING...TO THE OZARKS BY FRIDAY EVENING...THEN INTO SOUTHERN
INDIANA BY SATURDAY. GIVEN THIS PARTICULAR TRACK...THE SOUTHEAST
CWA WILL BE FAVORED FOR THE HEAVIEST RAIN FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. BASED ON MODEL TRENDS AND THE PRESENCE OF
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ON THE N/NW SIDE OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM...HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. HAVE FOCUSED LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70...WITH CHANCE POPS AS FAR NORTHWEST AS THE
ILLINOIS RIVER. FURTHER NORTHWEST...HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A DRY
FORECAST IN THE GALESBURG/LACON AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH
UNSEASONABLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES...ANY
STORMS THAT OCCUR DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY HIGH
RAINFALL RATES AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. EXPECTED RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 2 TO 2.50 RANGE SOUTH OF I-
70...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE LIKELY. DESPITE
EXPECTED HEAVY RAINFALL...OPTED NOT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT
THIS TIME...MAINLY DUE TO THE FACT THAT THIS AREA MISSED THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL FROM A COUPLE DAYS AGO. THERE ARE ALSO SOME SIGNS
THAT THE SYSTEM COULD TRACK EVEN FURTHER SOUTH...SHIFTING THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA.
ONCE BILL DEPARTS...LINGERING MORNING RAIN ACROSS THE E/SE WILL COME
TO AN END BY MIDDAY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE BOARD SATURDAY AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BRINGING RAIN
CHANCES BACK INTO THE PICTURE.
AFTER THAT...A VERY WARM AND OCCASIONALLY WET WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS
TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. AS WAS
FIRST SEEN WITH THE GFS LAST NIGHT...LATEST ECMWF NOW ADVERTISES A
WEAKER UPPER RIDGE NEXT WEEK...WHICH KEEPS THE PREVAILING BAROCLINIC
ZONE IN OR CLOSE TO THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. HAVE
INCLUDED LOW CHANCE POPS ACCORDINGLY. HAVE TEMPORARILY PUSHED POPS
NORTH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AS RIDGE BECOMES MOST
DOMINANT...BEFORE IT BREAKS DOWN AND FRONT SAGS BACK SOUTHWARD BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
AREAS OF LIFR/VLIFR ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY IMPROVE IN THE 12-14Z
TIME FRAME AS MOST OF THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
ONLY A VERY SHALLOW MOIST LAYER NEAR THE GROUND WITH DRIER AIR
EXTENDING FROM 950 MB AND ABOVE. ONCE THAT OCCURS WE EXPECT SCATTERED
TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN CIGS AT 3000-4500 FEET BY LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE
AREA...WE MAY SEE SOME WDLY SCATTERED TSRA THIS MORNING NEAR PIA
AND BMI...AND THIS AFTN IN OUR TAF SITES TO THE SOUTH. AGAIN...WILL
COVER WITH VCTS AND KEEP AN EYE ON THE RADAR FOR THE NORTHERN TAF
LOCATIONS FOR THE MORNING ACTIVITY. WITH AS MUCH MOISTURE AS THERE
IS IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE... WE MAY BE LOOKING AT
SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG AGAIN TONIGHT SO WILL INTRODUCE THAT IN
THIS SET OF TAFS. WINDS WILL BE MORE WESTERLY AT 8 TO 15 KTS WITH
A TREND TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST OVER ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...BARNES
AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1048 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST...A FRONTAL SYSTEM LINGERING ACROSS
THE MIDWEST...AND THE APPROACH OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
BILL COMBINE TO MAKE FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH DAY AND NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MOST CRITICAL OF THESE TIMES WILL BE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE BILL REMNANTS MOVE UP THE OHIO
VALLEY...POTENTIALLY BRINGING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING TO
THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1033 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
1400Z UPDATE...MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE DAY. MAINLY TO REMOVE POPS UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE SOUTH AS IS CURRENTLY BEING
DEPICTED...AND THEN THIS WILL BEGIN TO FILL BACK IN AS THE PESKY
BOUNDARY BEGINS TO DROP BACK SOUTHWARD AGAIN AND THIS TRIGGERS
RENEWED DEVELOPMENT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEBATED ON WHETHER TO LOWER HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY BASED ON RECENT COOLER TRENDS...AND THE FACT
CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL BE MOVING IN A FEW HOURS AS WELL. HOWEVER
ULTIMATELY DECIDED THAT AS THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW PICKS UP
THIS AFTERNOON AND BEGINS PUMPING EVEN WARMER AIR INTO THE
FORECAST AREA...THIS IS USUALLY WHAT ENDS UP BUSTING FOR THE
FORECASTER WHO CHOOSES TO DROP HIGH TEMPERATURES.
MADE SOME OTHER MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO THE FORECAST BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS AND NEAR TERM GUIDANCE. UPDATED FORECAST ALREADY
WENT OUT AROUND 945/1000 AM TIMEFRAME.
AND THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
CONDITIONS ARE QUIET ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS MORNING WITH A
LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AT THE MOMENT FOR PRECIPITATION...BUT
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE BILL REMNANTS...AS WELL AS
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE LINGERING FRONTAL SYSTEM
IN THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON...WILL NECESSITATE LIKELY POPS ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CANNOT ARGUE WITH THE SLIGHT RISK FOR
TODAY...BUT HYDRO CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE THE MORE PRESSING ISSUE.
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA SAVE FOR THE EXTREME NORTH AND NORTHEAST...AND THUS
EXPECT ANY FLASH FLOOD THREAT TO BE VERY LOCALIZED TODAY.
ON TEMPS...CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED SLIGHTLY TOO WARM GIVEN
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS ON THE IMPACTS OF THE BILL REMNANTS
WHICH APPEAR LIKELY TO MOVE UP THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO
VALLEYS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH AND WILL FOCUS HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AS WELL AS INSERTING A
HEAVY RAIN MENTION. A BIT EARLY FOR A FLOOD WATCH ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THAT THE AREA IN QUESTION HAS BEEN AMONG THE DRIEST AREAS IN THE
STATE IN RECENT DAYS...BUT WILL ISSUE AN ESF TO HIGHLIGHT THE
THREAT AS WELL AS CONTINUING TO MENTION IN OTHER VENUES.
ON TEMPS...CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE WITH MINOR
TWEAKS. PRECIP WILL HAVE EXTENSIVE IMPACTS ON MAX TEMPS ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
IN THE WAKE OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL...THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL REMAIN IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN TO START THE WEEK AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SINKS INTO THE REGION. EXPANSION OF A STRONG UPPER RIDGE
WILL FORCE THE BOUNDARY BACK NORTH BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A
TRANSITION TO HOTTER TEMPERATURES.
EXPECT SCATTERED STORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND ENABLES A COLD FRONT TO
SINK INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE PRESENCE OF THE FLATTENED RIDGE TO
THE SOUTH WILL STALL THE BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING A SLOW RETURN NORTHWARD ON MONDAY AS THE
RIDGE AMPLIFIES WITH EXPANSION OF THE HEAT DOME EAST OUT OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION.
COULD BE AN INTERESTING COUPLE DAYS EARLY IN THE WEEK BEFORE THE
RIDGE BECOMES MORE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED...AS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
RESIDE WITHIN A BAND OF FASTER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THE FLANK OF
THE EXPANDING RIDGE. WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY IN THE AREA AS WELL...
SETUP COULD SUPPORT PERIODIC CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS /RIDGE RIDERS/ WITH
A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IMPACTING CENTRAL INDIANA. WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCE POPS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT.
DOES APPEAR THE FRONT WILL BE FORCED NORTH INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES BY WEDNESDAY AS THE CORE OF THE RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT CONVECTION RIDING
AROUND THE RIDGE SNEAKS INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. A SHIFT TO HOTTER AND DRIER WEATHER STILL A
LIKELY SCENARIO BY MIDWEEK FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS 850MB TEMPS SURGE
ABOVE 20C WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 90S.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 181500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1026 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
MVFR CEILINGS HAVE MOVED NORTHEAST OF KIND SO HAVE REMOVED THEM FROM
TAF. CLOUDS AROUND 4500FT ARE QUICKLY DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTHWEST SO
BROUGHT A BKN045 CEILING INTO KIND QUICKER THAN BEFORE. AM WATCHING
RAINFALL DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST CLOSELY AND MAY HAVE TO GO MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN THIS AFTERNOON IF HRRR MODEL IS CORRECT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MVFR AND LOWER CEILINGS WILL IMPACT ALL BUT KBMG THIS MORNING...
THEN GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH EXCEPTION OF
CONVECTION.
STRATUS ENCOMPASSING MOST OF THE AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH CEILINGS FROM AS LOW AS 500FT TO AROUND
2000FT. RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH PROGS AT 950/975MB CAPTURING
THIS NICELY WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A SHALLOW INVERSION. THE
INVERSION SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY BY LATE MORNING WITH CEILINGS
RECOVERING TO VFR AND MIXING OUT.
INITIAL SURGE OF ENHANCED TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED INTO
THE REGION FORM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE. THESE FEATURES COMBINED WITH THE MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE WILL LIKELY GENERATE SCATTERED CONVECTION AFTER 18Z AND WILL
PLACE VCTS MENTION AT ALL TERMINALS. ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SUB-IFR CONDITIONS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
LIKELY TO BE A LULL IN PRECIP COVERAGE THIS EVENING AS INSTABILITY
WANES WITH SUNSET. HI-RES GUIDANCE THOUGH BRINGS IN MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF INDIANA AFTER
MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF THE REMNANTS OF BILL. THUNDER SHOULD BE LIMITED
WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT. WILL REINTRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS
AT ALL BUT KLAF AFTER 06Z WITH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT W/NW AS THE BOUNDARY SINKS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN/50
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1026 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST...A FRONTAL SYSTEM LINGERING ACROSS
THE MIDWEST...AND THE APPROACH OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
BILL COMBINE TO MAKE FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH DAY AND NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MOST CRITICAL OF THESE TIMES WILL BE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE BILL REMNANTS MOVE UP THE OHIO
VALLEY...POTENTIALLY BRINGING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING TO
THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
CONDITIONS ARE QUIET ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS MORNING WITH A
LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AT THE MOMENT FOR PRECIPITATION...BUT
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE BILL REMNANTS...AS WELL AS
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE LINGERING FRONTAL SYSTEM
IN THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON...WILL NECESSITATE LIKELY POPS ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CANNOT ARGUE WITH THE SLIGHT RISK FOR
TODAY...BUT HYDRO CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE THE MORE PRESSING ISSUE.
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA SAVE FOR THE EXTREME NORTH AND NORTHEAST...AND THUS
EXPECT ANY FLASH FLOOD THREAT TO BE VERY LOCALIZED TODAY.
ON TEMPS...CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED SLIGHTLY TOO WARM GIVEN
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS ON THE IMPACTS OF THE BILL REMNANTS
WHICH APPEAR LIKELY TO MOVE UP THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO
VALLEYS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH AND WILL FOCUS HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AS WELL AS INSERTING A
HEAVY RAIN MENTION. A BIT EARLY FOR A FLOOD WATCH ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THAT THE AREA IN QUESTION HAS BEEN AMONG THE DRIEST AREAS IN THE
STATE IN RECENT DAYS...BUT WILL ISSUE AN ESF TO HIGHLIGHT THE
THREAT AS WELL AS CONTINUING TO MENTION IN OTHER VENUES.
ON TEMPS...CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE WITH MINOR
TWEAKS. PRECIP WILL HAVE EXTENSIVE IMPACTS ON MAX TEMPS ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
IN THE WAKE OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL...THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL REMAIN IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN TO START THE WEEK AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SINKS INTO THE REGION. EXPANSION OF A STRONG UPPER RIDGE
WILL FORCE THE BOUNDARY BACK NORTH BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A
TRANSITION TO HOTTER TEMPERATURES.
EXPECT SCATTERED STORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND ENABLES A COLD FRONT TO
SINK INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE PRESENCE OF THE FLATTENED RIDGE TO
THE SOUTH WILL STALL THE BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING A SLOW RETURN NORTHWARD ON MONDAY AS THE
RIDGE AMPLIFIES WITH EXPANSION OF THE HEAT DOME EAST OUT OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION.
COULD BE AN INTERESTING COUPLE DAYS EARLY IN THE WEEK BEFORE THE
RIDGE BECOMES MORE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED...AS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
RESIDE WITHIN A BAND OF FASTER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THE FLANK OF
THE EXPANDING RIDGE. WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY IN THE AREA AS WELL...
SETUP COULD SUPPORT PERIODIC CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS /RIDGE RIDERS/ WITH
A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IMPACTING CENTRAL INDIANA. WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCE POPS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT.
DOES APPEAR THE FRONT WILL BE FORCED NORTH INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES BY WEDNESDAY AS THE CORE OF THE RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT CONVECTION RIDING
AROUND THE RIDGE SNEAKS INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. A SHIFT TO HOTTER AND DRIER WEATHER STILL A
LIKELY SCENARIO BY MIDWEEK FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS 850MB TEMPS SURGE
ABOVE 20C WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 90S.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 181500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1026 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
MVFR CEILINGS HAVE MOVED NORTHEAST OF KIND SO HAVE REMOVED THEM FROM
TAF. CLOUDS AROUND 4500FT ARE QUICKLY DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTHWEST SO
BROUGHT A BKN045 CEILING INTO KIND QUICKER THAN BEFORE. AM WATCHING
RAINFALL DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST CLOSELY AND MAY HAVE TO GO MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN THIS AFTERNOON IF HRRR MODEL IS CORRECT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MVFR AND LOWER CEILINGS WILL IMPACT ALL BUT KBMG THIS MORNING...
THEN GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH EXCEPTION OF
CONVECTION.
STRATUS ENCOMPASSING MOST OF THE AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH CEILINGS FROM AS LOW AS 500FT TO AROUND
2000FT. RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH PROGS AT 950/975MB CAPTURING
THIS NICELY WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A SHALLOW INVERSION. THE
INVERSION SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY BY LATE MORNING WITH CEILINGS
RECOVERING TO VFR AND MIXING OUT.
INITIAL SURGE OF ENHANCED TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED INTO
THE REGION FORM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE. THESE FEATURES COMBINED WITH THE MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE WILL LIKELY GENERATE SCATTERED CONVECTION AFTER 18Z AND WILL
PLACE VCTS MENTION AT ALL TERMINALS. ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SUB-IFR CONDITIONS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
LIKELY TO BE A LULL IN PRECIP COVERAGE THIS EVENING AS INSTABILITY
WANES WITH SUNSET. HI-RES GUIDANCE THOUGH BRINGS IN MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF INDIANA AFTER
MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF THE REMNANTS OF BILL. THUNDER SHOULD BE LIMITED
WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT. WILL REINTRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS
AT ALL BUT KLAF AFTER 06Z WITH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT W/NW AS THE BOUNDARY SINKS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN/50
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
619 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST...A FRONTAL SYSTEM LINGERING ACROSS
THE MIDWEST...AND THE APPROACH OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
BILL COMBINE TO MAKE FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH DAY AND NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MOST CRITICAL OF THESE TIMES WILL BE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE BILL REMNANTS MOVE UP THE OHIO
VALLEY...POTENTIALLY BRINGING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING TO
THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
CONDITIONS ARE QUIET ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS MORNING WITH A
LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AT THE MOMENT FOR PRECIPITATION...BUT
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE BILL REMNANTS...AS WELL AS
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE LINGERING FRONTAL SYSTEM
IN THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON...WILL NECESSITATE LIKELY POPS ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CANNOT ARGUE WITH THE SLIGHT RISK FOR
TODAY...BUT HYDRO CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE THE MORE PRESSING ISSUE.
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA SAVE FOR THE EXTREME NORTH AND NORTHEAST...AND THUS
EXPECT ANY FLASH FLOOD THREAT TO BE VERY LOCALIZED TODAY.
ON TEMPS...CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED SLIGHTLY TOO WARM GIVEN
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS ON THE IMPACTS OF THE BILL REMNANTS
WHICH APPEAR LIKELY TO MOVE UP THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO
VALLEYS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH AND WILL FOCUS HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AS WELL AS INSERTING A
HEAVY RAIN MENTION. A BIT EARLY FOR A FLOOD WATCH ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THAT THE AREA IN QUESTION HAS BEEN AMONG THE DRIEST AREAS IN THE
STATE IN RECENT DAYS...BUT WILL ISSUE AN ESF TO HIGHLIGHT THE
THREAT AS WELL AS CONTINUING TO MENTION IN OTHER VENUES.
ON TEMPS...CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE WITH MINOR
TWEAKS. PRECIP WILL HAVE EXTENSIVE IMPACTS ON MAX TEMPS ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
IN THE WAKE OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL...THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL REMAIN IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN TO START THE WEEK AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SINKS INTO THE REGION. EXPANSION OF A STRONG UPPER RIDGE
WILL FORCE THE BOUNDARY BACK NORTH BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A
TRANSITION TO HOTTER TEMPERATURES.
EXPECT SCATTERED STORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND ENABLES A COLD FRONT TO
SINK INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE PRESENCE OF THE FLATTENED RIDGE TO
THE SOUTH WILL STALL THE BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING A SLOW RETURN NORTHWARD ON MONDAY AS THE
RIDGE AMPLIFIES WITH EXPANSION OF THE HEAT DOME EAST OUT OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION.
COULD BE AN INTERESTING COUPLE DAYS EARLY IN THE WEEK BEFORE THE
RIDGE BECOMES MORE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED...AS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
RESIDE WITHIN A BAND OF FASTER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THE FLANK OF
THE EXPANDING RIDGE. WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY IN THE AREA AS WELL...
SETUP COULD SUPPORT PERIODIC CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS /RIDGE RIDERS/ WITH
A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IMPACTING CENTRAL INDIANA. WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCE POPS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT.
DOES APPEAR THE FRONT WILL BE FORCED NORTH INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES BY WEDNESDAY AS THE CORE OF THE RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT CONVECTION RIDING
AROUND THE RIDGE SNEAKS INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. A SHIFT TO HOTTER AND DRIER WEATHER STILL A
LIKELY SCENARIO BY MIDWEEK FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS 850MB TEMPS SURGE
ABOVE 20C WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 90S.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 181200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 619 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
MVFR AND LOWER CEILINGS WILL IMPACT ALL BUT KBMG THIS MORNING...
THEN GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH EXCEPTION OF
CONVECTION.
STRATUS ENCOMPASSING MOST OF THE AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH CEILINGS FROM AS LOW AS 500FT TO AROUND
2000FT. RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH PROGS AT 950/975MB CAPTURING
THIS NICELY WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A SHALLOW INVERSION. THE
INVERSION SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY BY LATE MORNING WITH CEILINGS
RECOVERING TO VFR AND MIXING OUT.
INITIAL SURGE OF ENHANCED TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED INTO
THE REGION FORM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE. THESE FEATURES COMBINED WITH THE MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE WILL LIKELY GENERATE SCATTERED CONVECTION AFTER 18Z AND WILL
PLACE VCTS MENTION AT ALL TERMINALS. ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SUB-IFR CONDITIONS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
LIKELY TO BE A LULL IN PRECIP COVERAGE THIS EVENING AS INSTABILITY
WANES WITH SUNSET. HI-RES GUIDANCE THOUGH BRINGS IN MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF INDIANA AFTER
MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF THE REMNANTS OF BILL. THUNDER SHOULD BE LIMITED
WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT. WILL REINTRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS
AT ALL BUT KLAF AFTER 06Z WITH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT W/NW AS THE BOUNDARY SINKS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
609 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2015
...UPDATED...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 609 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
The 06Z models and latest HRRR/RAP continue to show the MCS over
NEB holding together long enough to move into at least northern
portions of the forecast area. From the surface OBs behind the
line of storms, it looks like a fairly decent cold pool has formed
with pressure rises of about 4 MB. Therefore will be updating the
forecast to increase POPs across the northern counties. There is
still some question as to whether it will make it as far south as
I-70. Nevertheless there may be a remnant boundary that could
aid afternoon development. Will need to keep an eye on this.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 300 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
The weather pattern has changed very little over the last 24 hrs as
08Z water vapor shows the remnants of bill over southern OK with the
mean westerlies over the northern tier of the country. One
difference however is the morning MCS moving through the NEB
panhandle is a little later in the morning, having developed over MT
and WY. Surface obs put the center of Bill over the red river valley
while a broad area of high pressure moves into the upper Midwest.
The forecast for today and tonight is pretty similar to yesterday.
The RAP/HRRR/ARW/NMM show the MCS approaching north central KS by
the late morning hours. Not sure if it will hold together long
enough to reach the forecast area, but the hi resolution models show
a weak boundary moving into northern KS by the afternoon which could
help some isolated to scattered storms form in the heat of the day.
Deep layer shear once again is relatively weak with some reasonable
instability. Therefore I would anticipate convection to behave like
ordinary cells, popping up and falling apart without much
organization to their updrafts. Held onto small POPs through the
afternoon across the northern counties thinking the airmass will remain
somewhat unstable until the boundary layer begins cooling. If the
MCS hold together and mows into northern KS, the cold pool may
stabilize the airmass for the afternoon. The day shift can monitor
trends. Otherwise, Bill should remain to the south and east of the
forecast area. Have some chance POPs across Anderson county as some
of the precip could sneak into the county and this matches up with
neighboring offices. With the boundary layer stabilizing this
evening and Bill progged to drift east into AR and southern MO,
think precip chances will diminish through the evening.
Think that highs should be pretty similar to yesterday`s. There may
be some weak cold air advection from northeast surface winds.
However decent insolation over north central and northeast KS should
offset this. Lows tonight should once again fall into the mid and
upper 60s.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
Upper flow pattern remains persistent in guidance with the remnants
of Tropical Storm Bill gradually lifting north and east over MO
Friday. Track of the upper low a bit further east in reference to
far east central areas of the CWA suggested precipitation will
remain east of the CWA. Therefore pops were removed for this period.
Mid level westerlies become the predominant pattern for the
remainder of the period with a series of weak waves passing near the
area. The first on Saturday was progged to dip southward across the
central plains as an associated frontal boundary sags southward into
the CWA. Some weak low level forcing will persist near the boundary
during the late afternoon where surface CAPE increases over 2000
J/KG. However low level forcing appears inhibited by the stout
capping inversion in place at 750 MB, in addition to the upper level
support shifting further east by most guidance. Therefore have
removed the mention of thunderstorms during the day Saturday. By
Saturday evening, the sfc boundary stalls near the Nebraska border
where a series of weak shortwave troughs from the northwest bring
scattered thunderstorm chances to areas mainly north of Interstate
70. This activity will persist through Sunday evening before the
boundary washes out. Dry conditions return through Wednesday as the
upper storm systems shift further north with ridging developing over
the southern CONUS.
Heat and humidity is expected to persist through the extended
period. In the near term, Saturday afternoon will be the warmest
afternoon as h85 temps to the middle 20s. Thermal ridge axis
similarly builds over north central KS where slightly deeper mixing
from 800 MB would advect highs to the middle and upper 90s. Low to
middle 90s will be seen elsewhere. The combination of dewpoints in
the 70s should raise heat index readings between 101 to as high as
108 degrees across northeast KS. High temps are slightly cooler
through Wednesday in the lower 90s, but would not be surprised to see
heat indices reach 100 degrees again across north central KS.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 609 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
I have no clue why FOE is VV001. Was thinking high clouds would
limit radiational cooling, which has been the case at every other
OB. In any case, RAP forecast soundings show the boundary layer
mixing out around 14Z again. So I expect improving conditions
shortly. Will add a VCTS to the terminals in part to account for
the MCS moving southeast, but also for any outflow that is layer
out that could focus new development this afternoon. I think VFR
conditions should prevail once the boundary layer mixes out.
Forecast confidence is marginal.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Wolters
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1000 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
LATEST SATELLITE AND OBS SUGGEST MUCH OF THE FOG SEEN THIS MORNING
HAS BURNT OFF. OTHERWISE MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING
ACROSS PORTION OF EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE THIS MORNING. CONVECTIVE
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY AFTER 17Z. GIVEN NO MAJOR
SYNOPTIC BOUNDARIES THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MUCH LIKE IT HAS BEEN
THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH MORE OF A INFLUENCE FROM MESOSCALE
FEATURES AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INPUT THE LATEST OBS INTO THE GRIDS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE NOT BEGUN TO DEVELOP YET THIS
MORNING DESPITE THE HRRR HINTING AT DEVELOPMENT BY 12Z. DECIDED TO
KEEP THE FORECAST AS IS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE AREA BY
LATE MORNING AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND A NEW ZFP WILL NOT BE NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE EASTERN KENTUCKY UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH ALONG THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS PUTS EAST KENTUCKY IN A VERY HOT AND MUGGY
TROPICAL AIRMASS. THIS SITUATION WILL MAKE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE
FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...A WAVE TRACKING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY WILL BEGIN TO PUSH A SURFACE COLD
FRONT INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY. THIS ADDED FORCING WILL ADD TO THE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A GREAT DEAL OF AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WITH A RATHER SLOW
STORM MOTION. HENCE WILL KEEP A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT THROUGH
TODAY AS WELL. WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS TO THE NORTH...ANY SEVERE
THREAT FOR TODAY WILL BE NORTH OF I-64 WITH A MARGINAL THREAT TO
THE SOUTH.
HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE MENTIONED COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH WILL
KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GOING INTO TONIGHT
MAINTAINING GOOD INSTABILITY. HEADING INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY...THE
REMNANTS OF BILL EDGE CLOSER TO THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY AS SOME
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BEGINS TO ENTER THE AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
AID SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN AN ALREADY MOISTURE
LADEN AND WARM AIRMASS. THE SHORT TERM PERIOD APPEARS TO FEATURE A
CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCTION AND RATHER SLOW STORM
MOTION. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A FLASH FLOOD THREAT IN THE HWO.
AS WELL...ANY SEVERE POSSIBILITY WILL BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY STRONG CELL THAT DEVELOPS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. LATEST MODEL TRENDS INDICATE A TRACK ALONG OR
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. THIS WOULD KEEP OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES IN THE ARC OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
CAN BE EXPECTED PRETTY MUCH ANYWHERE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LEFTOVER SURFACE
LOW TRACKS BY. CONSIDERING THE RECENT DRY SPELL AND THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM...WE CURRENTLY THINK THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IS LOW. HOWEVER...TRAINING STORMS WILL POSE
A THREAT FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.
AS BILL WEAKENS FURTHER AND SHIFTS TO OUR EAST ON SUNDAY...A NEW
FORECAST CHALLENGE AWAITS. A STOUT UPPER RIDGE WILL HAVE RELOCATED
TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY AND THIS
PLACES THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
FORECAST MODELS HAVE SHOWN AND CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG SIGNAL
FOR MCS ACTIVITY TO ORIGINATE SOMEWHERE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND/OR OHIO VALLEY AND TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA. THE TIMING
OF THESE COMPLEXES IS INHERENTLY DIFFICULT THIS FAR OUT...HOWEVER
A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...AND THIS WOULD INCLUDE
NOCTURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE PRIMARY THREAT AREA FOR THESE
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD.
FINALLY...NO RELIEF FROM THE VERY HUMID CONDITIONS IS IN SIGHT.
IN FACT...EVEN HOTTER TEMPERATURES THAN WE HAVE WITNESSED IN RECENT
DAYS ARE LIKELY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
BACK OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. OUR CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES HIGHS
SURGING INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S BY WEDNESDAY...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
CLIMBING TOWARDS 100.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
MOST AREAS THIS MORNING HAVE SOME REDUCTION IN VIS AND CIGS DUE TO
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA OVERNIGHT HAS HINDERED FOG DEVELOPMENT AT SOME OF THE TAF
SITES. ALL FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE KEPT VCTS AT THE TAF
SITES TO COVER FOR THIS. EXPECT FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN LATER
TONIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
655 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INPUT THE LATEST OBS INTO THE GRIDS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE NOT BEGUN TO DEVELOP YET THIS
MORNING DESPITE THE HRRR HINTING AT DEVELOPMENT BY 12Z. DECIDED TO
KEEP THE FORECAST AS IS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE AREA BY
LATE MORNING AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND A NEW ZFP WILL NOT BE NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE EASTERN KENTUCKY UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH ALONG THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS PUTS EAST KENTUCKY IN A VERY HOT AND MUGGY
TROPICAL AIRMASS. THIS SITUATION WILL MAKE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE
FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...A WAVE TRACKING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY WILL BEGIN TO PUSH A SURFACE COLD
FRONT INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY. THIS ADDED FORCING WILL ADD TO THE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A GREAT DEAL OF AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WITH A RATHER SLOW
STORM MOTION. HENCE WILL KEEP A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT THROUGH
TODAY AS WELL. WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS TO THE NORTH...ANY SEVERE
THREAT FOR TODAY WILL BE NORTH OF I-64 WITH A MARGINAL THREAT TO
THE SOUTH.
HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE MENTIONED COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH WILL
KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GOING INTO TONIGHT
MAINTAINING GOOD INSTABILITY. HEADING INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY...THE
REMNANTS OF BILL EDGE CLOSER TO THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY AS SOME
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BEGINS TO ENTER THE AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
AID SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN AN ALREADY MOISTURE
LADEN AND WARM AIRMASS. THE SHORT TERM PERIOD APPEARS TO FEATURE A
CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCTION AND RATHER SLOW STORM
MOTION. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A FLASH FLOOD THREAT IN THE HWO.
AS WELL...ANY SEVERE POSSIBILITY WILL BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY STRONG CELL THAT DEVELOPS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. LATEST MODEL TRENDS INDICATE A TRACK ALONG OR
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. THIS WOULD KEEP OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES IN THE ARC OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
CAN BE EXPECTED PRETTY MUCH ANYWHERE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LEFTOVER SURFACE
LOW TRACKS BY. CONSIDERING THE RECENT DRY SPELL AND THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM...WE CURRENTLY THINK THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IS LOW. HOWEVER...TRAINING STORMS WILL POSE
A THREAT FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.
AS BILL WEAKENS FURTHER AND SHIFTS TO OUR EAST ON SUNDAY...A NEW
FORECAST CHALLENGE AWAITS. A STOUT UPPER RIDGE WILL HAVE RELOCATED
TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY AND THIS
PLACES THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
FORECAST MODELS HAVE SHOWN AND CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG SIGNAL
FOR MCS ACTIVITY TO ORIGINATE SOMEWHERE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND/OR OHIO VALLEY AND TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA. THE TIMING
OF THESE COMPLEXES IS INHERENTLY DIFFICULT THIS FAR OUT...HOWEVER
A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...AND THIS WOULD INCLUDE
NOCTURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE PRIMARY THREAT AREA FOR THESE
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD.
FINALLY...NO RELIEF FROM THE VERY HUMID CONDITIONS IS IN SIGHT.
IN FACT...EVEN HOTTER TEMPERATURES THAN WE HAVE WITNESSED IN RECENT
DAYS ARE LIKELY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
BACK OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. OUR CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES HIGHS
SURGING INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S BY WEDNESDAY...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
CLIMBING TOWARDS 100.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
MOST AREAS THIS MORNING HAVE SOME REDUCTION IN VIS AND CIGS DUE TO
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA OVERNIGHT HAS HINDERED FOG DEVELOPMENT AT SOME OF THE TAF
SITES. ALL FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE KEPT VCTS AT THE TAF
SITES TO COVER FOR THIS. EXPECT FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN LATER
TONIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1051 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
.UPDATE...
TWEAK POPS/WX AND A FEW HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE KSHV 88D IS SHOWING RAIN AREAS WINDING DOWN OVER THE LAST
HOUR WHICH IS TYPICAL WITH LOSS OF THE OVERNIGHT LOW LEVEL
FLOW...BUT WITH HEATING JUST ABOUT TO KICK IN GEAR WITH MORE AND
MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...COVERAGE MAY RAMP AGAIN INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS RUN THROUGH 1730Z AND
THE HEAVIER ELEMENTS ARE FADING AWAY WHICH IS GOOD NEWS AS
PREVIOUS RUN OFF FROM THIS MORNING IS ALREADY IMPROVED.
THERE ARE TWO NEW AREAS ALREADY GUSTING OUT A BIT INTO WARMER
AREAS FROM BROADDUS TO NEAR JOAQUIN IN TX AND FROM RED RIVER
MARINA SOUTH...TO NEAR MINDEN AND COTTON VALLEY IN LA. OTHER
STEAMERS OF SHOWERS ARE LINING UP ALONG I-30...BUT ARE NOT AS
MENACING RAINWISE. MEANWHILE...THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF BILL
ARE OVER SE OK NEAR MCALESTER AND POINTS JUST NORTH. LAST HOUR OBS
SHOWED A GUST TO 28 KTS AT IDABEL AND 27 KTS AT TEXARKANA LAST
HOUR...SO WE LEFT UP THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY. ONCE THE AFTERNOON
HEATING UNCERTAINTY IS REALIZED WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT IT IS LIKELY
THAT SOME OR EVEN PERHAPS MUCH OF THE FLOOD WATCH MAY BE CANCELLED
AND THE LAKE WIND ADV IF BILL LIFTS QUICKER TO THE NE...BOTH COULD
BE LET GO A LITTLE EARLY WITH THE NEXT ISSUANCE AT 4 PM.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015/
.AVIATION...
SHWRS/TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE PD. LOW CIGS/VSBYS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VC OF ANY CONVECTION...BUT OTHERWISE...WE
SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS FROM ABOUT MID MORNING TODAY THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT SLY WINDS SUSTAINED AT AROUND 12-18
KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PD. /12/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THE REMNANTS OF BILL IS RIGHT OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF LAKE
TEXOMA WITH SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF TO OCCUR TODAY WITH WRAP AROUND
ACTIVITY STILL IN PROGRESS. THE LAKE LEVEL IS ONLY ABOUT A FOOT
FROM THE SPILLWAY AND ANOTHER CREST WILL BE DETERMINED AND WORKING
DOWN STREAM AS RELEASES MAY BE ENHANCED BY ANOTHER SPILL. BILL IS
SLOWLY MOVING NNE AT 10 MPH PER THE LATEST WPC ADVISORY. WINDS ARE
ONLY 25 MPH SUSTAINED...BUT EFFECTIVELY WRAPPING UP THE MOIST
TROPICAL CONNECTION THAT IS DRAPED AROUND OVER THE ARKLATEX INTO
THE COASTAL BEND. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT...BUT APPEAR TO LACK
FOCUS CONSIDERING THE RADAR TRENDS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
THE HRRR IS LOOKING GOOD TO START WITH RAPID REFRESH AND WEAKENS
THE CURRENT FOCUS AND REDEVELOPS LATER THIS MORNING FROM SOUTH OF
TYLER...TO NEAR TEXARKANA. EITHER WAY...HEATING WILL BE A PLAYER
AND EVEN THE HRRR MAY BE OFF AS CURRENT ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY GUST
OUT INTO THE WARMER AREAS. RECOVERY OF RAIN AREAS WILL BE MUCH
QUICKER THAN NORMAL WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LIKELY FOR ALMOST
ANYWHERE WITH MODEST CAPE IN THIS SUPER RICH TROPICAL CONNECTION
THAT IS FUNNELING IN OVER THE AREA.
THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS A DRY SLOT OF AIR THAT IS ESTABLISHED OVER
SE OK WHICH COULD BE A BACK EDGE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE
CIRCULATION SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD...BUT THE WRAP AROUND MAY KEEP
TO OUR NORTH. ALSO TO NOTE...IS A LARGE DRY AIR PUSH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF UNDER THE BERMUDA RIDGE WITH A RESULTING SHARP SHEAR
AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND UP TO NEAR MEMPHIS.
THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION WITH ALL THE HIGH WATER IS
PLACE...RECENT RAINFALL...WHAT IS ON RADAR NOW AND WHAT WILL
LIKELY BE DEVELOPING WITH EVEN LIMITED HEATING. THE FLOOD WATCH
HAS BEEN EXPANDED FOR THE ENTIRE FOUR STATE AREA UNTIL EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS COULD EVEN BE NEEDED BEYOND THAT TIME DEPENDING ON
PROGRESSION OF BILL AND THE TROPICAL CONNECTION LOCATIONS TOWARD
SUNDOWN. BILLS CORE WILL KEEP ACTIVITY TIGHT TONIGHT AND THEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE SHEAR AXIS TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA TO SOME
DEGREE OVERNIGHT. WE COULD SEE RAIN TOTALS TODAY AND OVERALL EVENT
TOTALS GIVE US A VERY WET MONTH DESPITE THE DRY START. THIS ALONG
WITH A VERY SWOLLEN SYSTEM OF LAKES...BAYOUS...RIVERS AND
BACKWATER INTO THE EARLY PART OF SUMMER. /24/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 84 75 90 75 / 80 30 30 10
MLU 87 75 91 74 / 60 20 30 10
DEQ 80 72 85 72 / 80 80 40 20
TXK 84 74 89 75 / 80 60 40 20
ELD 85 74 88 74 / 80 40 40 20
TYR 85 74 89 74 / 70 40 30 10
GGG 85 75 90 74 / 60 40 30 10
LFK 86 75 90 74 / 80 20 40 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
059>061-070>073.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
059-060-070.
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-
010>014-017>022.
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
108>112-124>126-136>138.
&&
$$
24/12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
626 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SHWRS/TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE PD. LOW CIGS/VSBYS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VC OF ANY CONVECTION...BUT OTHERWISE...WE
SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS FROM ABOUT MID MORNING TODAY THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT SLY WINDS SUSTAINED AT AROUND 12-18
KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PD. /12/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THE REMNANTS OF BILL IS RIGHT OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF LAKE
TEXOMA WITH SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF TO OCCUR TODAY WITH WRAP AROUND
ACTIVITY STILL IN PROGRESS. THE LAKE LEVEL IS ONLY ABOUT A FOOT
FROM THE SPILLWAY AND ANOTHER CREST WILL BE DETERMINED AND WORKING
DOWN STREAM AS RELEASES MAY BE ENHANCED BY ANOTHER SPILL. BILL IS
SLOWLY MOVING NNE AT 10 MPH PER THE LATEST WPC ADVISORY. WINDS ARE
ONLY 25 MPH SUSTAINED...BUT EFFECTIVELY WRAPPING UP THE MOIST
TROPICAL CONNECTION THAT IS DRAPED AROUND OVER THE ARKLATEX INTO
THE COASTAL BEND. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT...BUT APPEAR TO LACK
FOCUS CONSIDERING THE RADAR TRENDS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
THE HRRR IS LOOKING GOOD TO START WITH RAPID REFRESH AND WEAKENS
THE CURRENT FOCUS AND REDEVELOPS LATER THIS MORNING FROM SOUTH OF
TYLER...TO NEAR TEXARKANA. EITHER WAY...HEATING WILL BE A PLAYER
AND EVEN THE HRRR MAY BE OFF AS CURRENT ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY GUST
OUT INTO THE WARMER AREAS. RECOVERY OF RAIN AREAS WILL BE MUCH
QUICKER THAN NORMAL WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LIKELY FOR ALMOST
ANYWHERE WITH MODEST CAPE IN THIS SUPER RICH TROPICAL CONNECTION
THAT IS FUNNELING IN OVER THE AREA.
THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS A DRY SLOT OF AIR THAT IS ESTABLISHED OVER
SE OK WHICH COULD BE A BACK EDGE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE
CIRCULATION SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD...BUT THE WRAP AROUND MAY KEEP
TO OUR NORTH. ALSO TO NOTE...IS A LARGE DRY AIR PUSH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF UNDER THE BERMUDA RIDGE WITH A RESULTING SHARP SHEAR
AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND UP TO NEAR MEMPHIS.
THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION WITH ALL THE HIGH WATER IS
PLACE...RECENT RAINFALL...WHAT IS ON RADAR NOW AND WHAT WILL
LIKELY BE DEVELOPING WITH EVEN LIMITED HEATING. THE FLOOD WATCH
HAS BEEN EXPANDED FOR THE ENTIRE FOUR STATE AREA UNTIL EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS COULD EVEN BE NEEDED BEYOND THAT TIME DEPENDING ON
PROGRESSION OF BILL AND THE TROPICAL CONNECTION LOCATIONS TOWARD
SUNDOWN. BILLS CORE WILL KEEP ACTIVITY TIGHT TONIGHT AND THEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE SHEAR AXIS TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA TO SOME
DEGREE OVERNIGHT. WE COULD SEE RAIN TOTALS TODAY AND OVERALL EVENT
TOTALS GIVE US A VERY WET MONTH DESPITE THE DRY START. THIS ALONG
WITH A VERY SWOLLEN SYSTEM OF LAKES...BAYOUS...RIVERS AND
BACKWATER INTO THE EARLY PART OF SUMMER. /24/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 84 75 90 75 / 80 30 30 10
MLU 87 75 91 74 / 30 20 30 10
DEQ 80 72 85 72 / 80 80 40 20
TXK 84 74 89 75 / 70 60 40 20
ELD 85 74 88 74 / 50 40 40 20
TYR 85 74 89 74 / 70 40 30 10
GGG 85 75 90 74 / 60 40 30 10
LFK 86 75 90 74 / 80 20 40 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
070>073.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
059-060-070.
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
017>022.
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
108>112-124>126-136>138.
&&
$$
12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
520 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
.DISCUSSION...
THE REMNANTS OF BILL IS RIGHT OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF LAKE
TEXOMA WITH SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF TO OCCUR TODAY WITH WRAP AROUND
ACTIVITY STILL IN PROGRESS. THE LAKE LEVEL IS ONLY ABOUT A FOOT
FROM THE SPILLWAY AND ANOTHER CREST WILL BE DETERMINED AND WORKING
DOWN STREAM AS RELEASES MAY BE ENHANCED BY ANOTHER SPILL. BILL IS
SLOWLY MOVING NNE AT 10 MPH PER THE LATEST WPC ADVISORY. WINDS ARE
ONLY 25 MPH SUSTAINED...BUT EFFECTIVELY WRAPPING UP THE MOIST
TROPICAL CONNECTION THAT IS DRAPED AROUND OVER THE ARKLATEX INTO
THE COASTAL BEND. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT...BUT APPEAR TO LACK
FOCUS CONSIDERING THE RADAR TRENDS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
THE HRRR IS LOOKING GOOD TO START WITH RAPID REFRESH AND WEAKENS
THE CURRENT FOCUS AND REDEVELOPS LATER THIS MORNING FROM SOUTH OF
TYLER...TO NEAR TEXARKANA. EITHERWAY...HEATING WILL BE A PLAYER
AND EVEN THE HRRR MAY BE OFF AS CURRENT ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY GUST
OUT INTO THE WARMER AREAS. RECOVERY OF RAIN AREAS WILL BE MUCH
QUICKER THAN NORMAL WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LIKELY FOR ALMOST
ANYWHERE WITH MODEST CAPE IN THIS SUPER RICH TROPICAL CONNECTION
THAT IS FUNNELING IN OVER THE AREA.
THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS A DRY SLOT OF AIR THAT IS ESTABLISHED OVER
SE OK WHICH COULD BE A BACK EDGE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE
CIRCULATION SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD...BUT THE WRAP AROUND MAY KEEP
TO OUR NORTH. ALSO TO NOTE...IS A LARGE DRY AIR PUSH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF UNDER THE BERMUDA RIDGE WITH A RESULTING SHARP SHEAR
AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND UP TO NEAR MEMPHIS.
THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION WITH ALL THE HIGH WATER IS
PLACE...RECENT RAINFALL...WHAT IS ON RADAR NOW AND WHAT WILL
LIKELY BE DEVELOPING WITH EVEN LIMITED HEATING. THE FLOOD WATCH
HAS BEEN EXPANDED FOR THE ENTIRE FOUR STATE AREA UNTIL EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS COULD EVEN BE NEEDED BEYOND THAT TIME DEPENDING ON
PROGRESSION OF BILL AND THE TROPICAL CONNECTION LOCATIONS TOWARD
SUNDOWN. BILLS CORE WILL KEEP ACTIVITY TIGHT TONIGHT AND THEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE SHEAR AXIS TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA TO SOME
DEGREE OVERNIGHT. WE COULD SEE RAIN TOTALS TODAY AND OVERALL EVENT
TOTALS GIVE US A VERY WET MONTH DESPITE THE DRY START. THIS ALONG
WITH A VERY SWOLLEN SYSTEM OF LAKES...BAYOUS...RIVERS AND
BACKWATER INTO THE EARLY PART OF SUMMER.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 84 75 90 75 / 80 30 30 10
MLU 87 75 91 74 / 30 20 30 10
DEQ 80 72 85 72 / 80 80 40 20
TXK 84 74 89 75 / 70 60 40 20
ELD 85 74 88 74 / 50 40 40 20
TYR 85 74 89 74 / 70 40 30 10
GGG 85 75 90 74 / 60 40 30 10
LFK 86 75 90 74 / 80 20 40 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
070>073.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
059-060-070.
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
017>022.
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
108>112-124>126-136>138.
&&
$$
24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
1105 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1105 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
...SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TODAY...
OVERVIEW: PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW ADVANCING
ACROSS ONTARIO INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES REGION. ATTENDING SFC LOW
ANALYZED ACROSS QUEBEC WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT STRETCHING DOWN
INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND ON INTO EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
STRONGEST SYNOPTIC FORCING IS OCCURRING ACROSS EASTERN
ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE. BUT WE ARE SEEING
A NICE NARROW AXIS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WHICH
HAS KICKED OFF A NARROW CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS IN EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. PER SPC MESO ANALYSIS...INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE REGION IS PALTRY. NONETHELESS...PLUME OF STEEPER MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING (SEEN ON APX 12Z
SOUNDING) APPARENTLY ENOUGH TO GET SOME THUNDER ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN.
REST OF TODAY...SFC COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN RATHER QUICKLY TODAY. GIVEN THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES
ALOFT AND SOME DECENT HEATING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN...I DO EXPECT TO SEE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP
DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN AS WE GO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
HAVE REVAMPED POPS/TIMING TO REFLECT THAT THINKING WITH CATEGORICAL
POPS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...TRANSLATING DOWN
THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON.
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...SEVERAL HOURS OF HEATING SHOULD BE ABLE TO
PUSH MLCAPE VALUES UP TO AROUND 500 J/KG ACROSS THE E/SE PART OF
THE CWA. NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT WITH AROUND 50 KNOTS OF
0-6KM SPEED SHEARS SITTING ACROSS THE REGION...COULD GET SOME
BETTER ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS AND STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. AGAIN...BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS
THE E/SE PART OF THE CWA BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z.
&&
.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED EAST OF MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING...AS A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER ONTARIO AND MINNESOTA
BEGINS TO MAKE A MOVE TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION. ONLY PRECIP
TO SPEAK OF ATTM REMAINS UPSTREAM OF OUR CWA OVER UPPER MICHIGAN PER
KMQT BASE REF IMAGES...DEVELOPING WITHIN AN AREA OF ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LACK OF INSTABILITY HAS
PRECLUDED ANY THUNDER WITHIN THIS BKN LINE OF SHOWERS. PRIMARY
FORECASTS CONCERN FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT ARE POPS AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDER AS THIS FRONT MOVES THRU OUR CWA.
BOTH THE NAM AND THE RAP DEVELOP A WEAK WAVE OVER WISCONSIN THIS
MORNING ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...PULLING ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS A WEAK
INSTABILITY AXIS PUSHES NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN
TODAY. MUCAPES INCREASE TO AROUND 750 TO 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS SE SECTIONS OF OUR CWA...MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM APN TO
HTL. THIS IS WHERE OUR GREATEST POPS AND BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER
WILL RESIDE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THANKS TO
FROPA DURING MAX DIURNAL HEATING/INSTABILITY. ALSO...SOME DESCENT
SPEED SHEAR WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THIS AREA BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...FURTHER SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER
DEVELOPMENT. LATEST SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS OUR SE CWA FOR A
MARGINAL CHANCE OF SVR STORMS...WHICH IS REASONABLE GIVEN THE ABOVE
SCENARIO.
HAVE MADE SOME MINOR UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND EXTENDED POPS
INTO THE EVENING HOURS BASED ON LATEST FROPA PROJECTIONS. HAVE ALSO
INCREASED CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR OUR SE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LOW LEVEL CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL LEND TO A LARGER
SPREAD OF TEMPS TODAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
60S IN ERN UPR MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 70S IN OUR FAR SE CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: FAST MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
REGIME SHOWING NO SIGNS OF SLOWING DOWN ANYTIME IN THE NEAR
FUTURE...WITH NORTHERN MICHIGAN SQUARELY CENTERED BETWEEN BROAD
SOUTHERN RIDGING AND DEEP TROUGHING ROTATING AROUND THE CANADIAN
ARCTIC. FAST MOVING...HARD TO TIME...WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE
OVERHEAD...ALTHOUGH STILL APPEARS DISCONNECT WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN
THEM AND MUCH DEEPER INSTABILITY/MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE NORTHERN
OHIO VALLEY. WHILE THIS MAY PREVENT A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL FOR
OUR NECK OF THE WOODS...PASSING WAVES WORKING ON A MODESTLY MOST
ENVIRONMENT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES AS WE HEAD INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THIS WEEKEND.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: ADDRESSING SATURDAY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
DETAILS: WORK WEEK ENDS ON A QUIET NOTE AS HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS
CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER...DESPITE SLOWLY PASSING OFF TO THE EAST. ALL
STRONG WAA WILL REMAIN CENTERED WELL TO OUR WEST...WITH PERHAPS JUST
SOME HINTS OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN VIA SLOWLY INCREASING
CIRRUS. VERY COOL EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND NICELY TO
THE SUNSHINE...BUT SHOULD STILL END UP A LEAST A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT ALL DEEPER MOISTURE AND
SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL BE REMOVED WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST
(THE LATTER TIED TO REMNANTS OF WHAT WAS ONCE TROPICAL STORM BILL).
SLOWER IS DEFINITELY THE TREND WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT WAVE
AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SATURDAY...LIKELY A RESULT OF THE
PROXIMITY OF "BILL" PASSING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. WHAT MID LEVEL
SUPPORT DOES ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY WILL BE IN WEAKENING
MODE...ALTHOUGH NICE SURGE OF THETA-E ADVECTION AND SOME RER UPPER
JET SUPPORT MAY COMPENSATE SOME. MAIN CHANCES FOR SHOWER/EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL NOW LOOKS TO ARRIVE THE SECOND HALF OF
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING WHEN ABOVE FORCING INTERACTS WITH
FAVORED DIURNAL INSTABILITY TRENDS. HOWEVER...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT SOME MORNING ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER ALONG SURGE OF
STRONGER MOISTURE ADVECTION TIED TO PASSING LOW LEVEL JET. MUCH LIKE
THE PAST SEVERAL SIMILAR EVENTS...ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH IN VICINITY OF MUCH BETTER
INSTABILITY.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE EXTENDED RANGE...ESPECIALLY
WITH REGARDS TO ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES. JUST REALLY IMPOSSIBLE
TO GET A GOOD FEEL ON SHOWER POTENTIAL SUNDAY INTO THE START OF
NEXT WORK WEEK...WITH YET TO BE SEEN FAST MOVING WAVES IN OVERHEAD
AGGRESSIVE FLOW AT LEAST OFFERING SOME SHOWER POTENTIAL AT TIMES.
PER THE USUAL IN SUCH A PATTERN...THIS FORECAST WILL APPEAR MUCH
WETTER THAN WHAT WILL LIKELY ACTUALLY OCCUR...SIMPLY AN
UNFORTUNATE PRODUCT OF TIMING UNCERTAINTY. NOW...AS PREVIOUS
FORECASTER MENTIONED...LATEST HIGHER RES GUIDANCE PROGS HAVE
INCREASINGLY ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR BUILDING CENTRAL PLAINS HEAT
DOME/RIDGING HEADING INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ALL-THE-WHILE
TROUGHING RESIDES OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS. ABOVE IS A PRIME
PATTERN FOR PERIODIC RIDGE RIDING MCS`S (SO CALLED RING OF FIRE)
TO PIVOT SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. SIMPLY TOO EARLY TO SAY
WITH ANY CONFIDENCE WHERE THE BEST CORRIDOR WILL ALIGN ITSELF.
WILL SAY IF CURRENT TRENDS HOLD...MOST IMPRESSIVE CORRIDOR OF HEAT
AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH...PLACING
THE MOST ACTIVE TEMP/INSTABILITY GRADIENT JUST OFF TO OUR
SOUTHWEST. ONLY TIME WILL TELL...OF COURSE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 650 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR FOR ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF
SITES THRU THURSDAY NIGHT DESPITE INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
PASSES THRU THE REGION. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE ACROSS NE LWR MICHIGAN (APN) THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AS FROPA OCCURS DURING MAX HEATING/DIURNAL INSTABILITY.
LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME N/NW IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT DURING THE DAY...AND WILL AGAIN BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
WINDS AND WAVES WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AND STRENGTHEN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...BUT AT THIS POINT...BOTH
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND
THUNDER ACROSS NE LWR MICHIGAN AND THUS THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE
AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT...WITH DRY WEATHER AND DIMINISHING WINDS/WAVES EXPECTED
LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ADAM
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MLR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
650 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED EAST OF MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING...AS A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER ONTARIO AND MINNESOTA
BEGINS TO MAKE A MOVE TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION. ONLY PRECIP
TO SPEAK OF ATTM REMAINS UPSTREAM OF OUR CWA OVER UPPER MICHIGAN PER
KMQT BASE REF IMAGES...DEVELOPING WITHIN AN AREA OF ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LACK OF INSTABILITY HAS
PRECLUDED ANY THUNDER WITHIN THIS BKN LINE OF SHOWERS. PRIMARY
FORECASTS CONCERN FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT ARE POPS AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDER AS THIS FRONT MOVES THRU OUR CWA.
BOTH THE NAM AND THE RAP DEVELOP A WEAK WAVE OVER WISCONSIN THIS
MORNING ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...PULLING ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS A WEAK
INSTABILITY AXIS PUSHES NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN
TODAY. MUCAPES INCREASE TO AROUND 750 TO 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS SE SECTIONS OF OUR CWA...MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM APN TO
HTL. THIS IS WHERE OUR GREATEST POPS AND BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER
WILL RESIDE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THANKS TO
FROPA DURING MAX DIURNAL HEATING/INSTABILITY. ALSO...SOME DESCENT
SPEED SHEAR WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THIS AREA BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...FURTHER SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER
DEVELOPMENT. LATEST SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS OUR SE CWA FOR A
MARGINAL CHANCE OF SVR STORMS...WHICH IS REASONABLE GIVEN THE ABOVE
SCENARIO.
HAVE MADE SOME MINOR UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND EXTENDED POPS
INTO THE EVENING HOURS BASED ON LATEST FROPA PROJECTIONS. HAVE ALSO
INCREASED CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR OUR SE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LOW LEVEL CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL LEND TO A LARGER
SPREAD OF TEMPS TODAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
60S IN ERN UPR MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 70S IN OUR FAR SE CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: FAST MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
REGIME SHOWING NO SIGNS OF SLOWING DOWN ANYTIME IN THE NEAR
FUTURE...WITH NORTHERN MICHIGAN SQUARELY CENTERED BETWEEN BROAD
SOUTHERN RIDGING AND DEEP TROUGHING ROTATING AROUND THE CANADIAN
ARCTIC. FAST MOVING...HARD TO TIME...WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE
OVERHEAD...ALTHOUGH STILL APPEARS DISCONNECT WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN
THEM AND MUCH DEEPER INSTABILITY/MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE NORTHERN
OHIO VALLEY. WHILE THIS MAY PREVENT A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL FOR
OUR NECK OF THE WOODS...PASSING WAVES WORKING ON A MODESTLY MOST
ENVIRONMENT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES AS WE HEAD INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THIS WEEKEND.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: ADDRESSING SATURDAY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
DETAILS: WORK WEEK ENDS ON A QUIET NOTE AS HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS
CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER...DESPITE SLOWLY PASSING OFF TO THE EAST. ALL
STRONG WAA WILL REMAIN CENTERED WELL TO OUR WEST...WITH PERHAPS JUST
SOME HINTS OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN VIA SLOWLY INCREASING
CIRRUS. VERY COOL EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND NICELY TO
THE SUNSHINE...BUT SHOULD STILL END UP A LEAST A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT ALL DEEPER MOISTURE AND
SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL BE REMOVED WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST
(THE LATTER TIED TO REMNANTS OF WHAT WAS ONCE TROPICAL STORM BILL).
SLOWER IS DEFINITELY THE TREND WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT WAVE
AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SATURDAY...LIKELY A RESULT OF THE
PROXIMITY OF "BILL" PASSING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. WHAT MID LEVEL
SUPPORT DOES ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY WILL BE IN WEAKENING
MODE...ALTHOUGH NICE SURGE OF THETA-E ADVECTION AND SOME RER UPPER
JET SUPPORT MAY COMPENSATE SOME. MAIN CHANCES FOR SHOWER/EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL NOW LOOKS TO ARRIVE THE SECOND HALF OF
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING WHEN ABOVE FORCING INTERACTS WITH
FAVORED DIURNAL INSTABILITY TRENDS. HOWEVER...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT SOME MORNING ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER ALONG SURGE OF
STRONGER MOISTURE ADVECTION TIED TO PASSING LOW LEVEL JET. MUCH LIKE
THE PAST SEVERAL SIMILAR EVENTS...ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH IN VICINITY OF MUCH BETTER
INSTABILITY.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE EXTENDED RANGE...ESPECIALLY
WITH REGARDS TO ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES. JUST REALLY IMPOSSIBLE
TO GET A GOOD FEEL ON SHOWER POTENTIAL SUNDAY INTO THE START OF
NEXT WORK WEEK...WITH YET TO BE SEEN FAST MOVING WAVES IN OVERHEAD
AGGRESSIVE FLOW AT LEAST OFFERING SOME SHOWER POTENTIAL AT TIMES.
PER THE USUAL IN SUCH A PATTERN...THIS FORECAST WILL APPEAR MUCH
WETTER THAN WHAT WILL LIKELY ACTUALLY OCCUR...SIMPLY AN
UNFORTUNATE PRODUCT OF TIMING UNCERTAINTY. NOW...AS PREVIOUS
FORECASTER MENTIONED...LATEST HIGHER RES GUIDANCE PROGS HAVE
INCREASINGLY ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR BUILDING CENTRAL PLAINS HEAT
DOME/RIDGING HEADING INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ALL-THE-WHILE
TROUGHING RESIDES OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS. ABOVE IS A PRIME
PATTERN FOR PERIODIC RIDGE RIDING MCS`S (SO CALLED RING OF FIRE)
TO PIVOT SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. SIMPLY TOO EARLY TO SAY
WITH ANY CONFIDENCE WHERE THE BEST CORRIDOR WILL ALIGN ITSELF.
WILL SAY IF CURRENT TRENDS HOLD...MOST IMPRESSIVE CORRIDOR OF HEAT
AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH...PLACING
THE MOST ACTIVE TEMP/INSTABILITY GRADIENT JUST OFF TO OUR
SOUTHWEST. ONLY TIME WILL TELL...OF COURSE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 650 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR FOR ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF
SITES THRU THURSDAY NIGHT DESPITE INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
PASSES THRU THE REGION. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE ACROSS NE LWR MICHIGAN (APN) THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AS FROPA OCCURS DURING MAX HEATING/DIURNAL INSTABILITY.
LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME N/NW IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT DURING THE DAY...AND WILL AGAIN BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
WINDS AND WAVES WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AND STRENGTHEN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...BUT AT THIS POINT...BOTH
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND
THUNDER ACROSS NE LWR MICHIGAN AND THUS THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE
AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT...WITH DRY WEATHER AND DIMINISHING WINDS/WAVES EXPECTED
LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MLR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
543 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
.UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
THE SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE THE CHANCE AND COVERAGE OF POSSIBLE
CONVECTION ALONG SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPPING OVER THE AREA
TODAY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FAST WEST FLOW ALOFT. THE NORTHERN EXTENSION DEVELOPED SOME
SHOWERS/THUNDER OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTAS AND IS NOW WEAKENING.
THE OTHER A DECENT SIZED MCS TRAVELING ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND
DROPPING INTO NEBRASKA. A LOT OF CIRRUS DEBRIS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
IT MOVES SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. THE NORTHERN SYSTEM IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT AND IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH DURING THE LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON. VARIOUS MODELS SUGGEST INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND WITH LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE WITH THE
FRONT...MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION
AS IT DROPS SOUTH DURING THE MAX HEATING OF THE DAY. VARIOUS
HIRES MODELS AND THE HRRR IS NOW TRYING TO DEVELOP ISOLATED
CONVECTION WITH THE BOUNDARY. IT APPEARS AS THE WAVE MOVES FARTHER
EAST THE UPPER JET STREAK TRANSLATES FARTHER EAST...THE BETTER
FORCING FROM IT IS GENERATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN CWA. MAIN
QUESTION WAS HOW FAR WEST WITH THE SMALL POP TO GO. THE NAM AND
HIRES NMM WERE THE STRONGEST WITH DEVELOPMENT/INSTABILITY...BUT THE
GFS STILL MANAGED TO DROP SOME QPF INTO WESTERN WI. WILL HOLD SMALL
POP TO THE EAST METRO INTO WESTERN WI FOR NOW.
SHOULD SEE DIURNAL NATURE TO ANY DEVELOPMENT AND SHOULD DIE OFF
QUICKLY THIS EVENING. CLEARING WITH MORE CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM MORE
DAKOTAS ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT. KEPT IT DRY FOR NOW...BUT WILL HAVE
TO WATCH DAKOTAS SYSTEM FOR ANY VARIABLE SHIFTING OF COMPLEX
OVERNIGHT. IT COULD AFFECT THE FAR WEST BEFORE DAYBREAK.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
A ZONAL FLOW REGIME PERSISTS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK...WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES FOSTERING MULTIPLE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SAID PATTERN WILL
ALSO BE CONDUCIVE TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPATURES WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.
AT DAYBREAK FRIDAY...EXPECT ELEVATED CONVECTION TO BE ONGOING OVER
THE DAKOTAS...GENERATED BY ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A WARM FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EASTWARD
DURING THE DAY AS THE FIRST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVES
ARRIVES...BUT THE BULK LOOKS TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AS A CAP BUILDS IN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WILL LIKELY SEE A
BREAK IN STORMS UNTIL WE CAN TAP INTO THE BUILDING INSTABILITY.
THE AFTERNOON ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE
COLD FRONT TO THE WEST OVER THE DAKOTAS...AND THEN CONGEAL INTO A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THIS
HAPPENS...THERE LOOKS TO BE A POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN
THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR FORECAST. THIS THREAT APPEARS TO LIE BETWEEN 06Z
AND 18Z SATURDAY...WITH RESIDUAL ACTIVITY IN WI SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING A LULL IN THE STORMS...BUT THEN MORE
WEAK EMBEDDED ENERGY ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IN
THE TIMING OF THESE TYPES OF WAVES IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW IS OF
COURSE LOW...SO HAVE HELD ON TO 20-30 POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRING SLIGHTLY MORE TO FOCUS ON...AS A
BAROCLINIC ZONE LIFTS TOWARD THE AREA. HOWEVER...18.00Z GFS AND
ECMWF SOLUTIONS SHOW VASTLY DIFFERENT TIMING/PLACEMENT SCENARIOS.
HAVE THEREFORE INCLUDED 30-40 POPS AT THIS POINT UNTIL
DIFFERENCES RESOLVE SOMEWHAT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
SOME MVFR CIGS LEFTOVER FROM YESTERDAY RAIN AFFECTING MAINLY KEAU
THIS MORNING. SHOULD MOVE OUT SHORTLY. MORE CIGS DEVELOPED AROUND
5K FEET BEFORE DAWN IN THE EAST...AND HAS KEPT WIDESPREAD FOG FROM
FORMING. OTHER WISE...SOME LOWER VFR CIGS TO THE FAR NORTH WITH
PATCH LOW END IFR STRATUS/FOG INTO WEST CENTRAL NEAR RIDGE AXIS.
THIS TOO COULD OF DEVELOPED MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE...BUT HIGH
CLOUDS FORM THE SOUTH DAKOTA/NEB THUNDERSTORMS COMPLEX WAS THICK
ENOUGH TO PROMOTE THAT FROM HAPPENING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY/TONIGHT WITH PERIODS OF CUMULUS AND
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE PERIOD. SOME THREAT OF ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH AND
WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON. LIMITED VS MENTION TO WI TAF SITES FOR
NOW.
KMSP...VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SOME THREAT OF
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT TOO MINIMAL TO INCLUDE AT
THIS TIME. PERIODS OF CUMULUS AND MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI AFTN/NITE...MAINLY VFR WITH OCNL PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR IN
SHRA/TSRA. WINDS SE 10-15 KT.
SAT...MAINLY VFR WITH OCNL PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR IN SHRA/TSRA.
WINDS SSW 10-15 KT BECOMING NW IN AFTERNOON.
SUN...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHC OF MVFR SHRA/TSRA. N WINDS 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...DWE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1016 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HOT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SPREADING OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES
WILL KEEP NORTHERN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS STALLED OUT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO NEXT WEEK. EXPECT PERIODS
OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR IN THIS PATTERN WITH AN
ENHANCED RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN ON SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF BILL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOTS OF SHORT LIVED LIGHT SHOWERS ON RADAR THIS MORNING. HRRR RUNS
SUPPORT SCT CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND SPC HAS THE AREA IN THE
SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY. MAIN SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE ISOLATED HIGH
WINDS IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALSO
POSSIBLE...THOUGH QPF IS RELATIVELY LIGHT GIVEN THE SHORT DURATION
OF THE RAINFALL.
A STRONG S/WV TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS SERN CANADA AND SEND A SFC
COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL PA AFTER 00Z FRI. EXPECT SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY WITH THE FRONT ALTHOUGH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
SUGGESTS A LOWERING INTENSITY/COVERAGE OF PCPN. DRIER AIR SHOULD
WORK INTO NWRN AND NCENTRAL PA INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AS THE SFC
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE PA/MD LINE BY 12Z FRI.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY IS LOOKING MAINLY DRY OVERALL AS DECENT SFC HIGH BUILDS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND DIRECTS DRIER/LOWER HUMIDITY AIR INTO
THE REGION BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. HOWEVER STILL
CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM OVER FAR SOUTHERN PA WHERE PWS
REMAIN MODESTLY HIGH AND MODELS SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY. A COOLER
AND LESS HUMID NIGHT LOOKS IN STORE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH
OVERNIGHT READINGS POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S OVER THE
NCENTRAL MTNS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DECENT SFC HIGH DEPARTS NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY WITH SLY RETURN
FLOW PUSHING THE BRIEFLY SUPPRESSED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DEEP
MSTR BACK INTO SOUTHERN PA. FOCUS INTO THE WEEKEND WILL SHIFT TO
THE REMNANTS OF BILL...WHICH ARE FCST VERY WELL BY THE MODELS TO
REACH SOUTHEAST MO/SOUTHERN IL BY SATURDAY MORNING. A SLOWER
TREND AND MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK APPEARS TO BE EMERGING IN THE
GUIDANCE DUE TO LIMITED INFLUENCE FROM THE NRN STREAM WESTERLIES.
BY SATURDAY EVE...THE LOW BECOMES MORE OF A WAVE GOING UP THE OH
RIVER IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. FINALLY...BILL REACHES THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT
FOLLOWING BEHIND WHAT IS LEFT OF BILL COULD INVIGORATE ADDNL
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEGINS TO MIGRATE BACK TO THE EAST NEXT WEEK
WHICH SETS UP A NW/CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST
AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. WILL
KEEP NRN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS STALLED OUT OVER THIS SAME REGION.
THE PCPN PATTERN SHOULD TRANSITION TO MORE OF A NW FLOW/MCS TYPE
PATTERN WITH IMPULSES OF ENERGY MOVING DOWNSTREAM FROM THE UPPER
PLAINS AND POSING A THREAT FOR PERIODIC CONVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST RADAR SHOWS A PRECIPITATION BAND CONTINUING TO MOVE THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST...AFFECTING MDT AND LNS. AS THIS WEAK PRECIPITATION
MOVES EASTWARD...STRONGER BANDS OF LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE MOVING
INTO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 14Z TO 16Z. THE LOW CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING BEFORE LIFTING FOR ALL TAF
SITES BETWEEN 16Z TO 18Z.
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
MVFR TO IFR CHANCES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING...ESPECIALLY BFD AND JST AND ARES THAT RECEIVE
ANY PRECIPITATION. VFR SHOULD DOMINATE THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...BCMG VFR.
SAT-MON...VFR/MVFR WITH PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA. LOCALLY +RA PSBL SAT
NGT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...ROSS/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1056 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN...ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. YET ANOTHER STRONG AND HOT UPPER RIDGE WILL
BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE AREA NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1050 AM EDT THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB AMIDST A
FAIRLY SUPPRESSED ATMOSPHERE PER LATEST VISIBLE SAT WHICH IS YIELDING
CLEAR SKIES REGIONWIDE. OPTED TO BLEND IN LATEST RAP MAX
TEMPERATURES AS TRENDS SEEM TO BE A TAD ABOVE THAT OF
YESTERDAY...AND SKY COVER REMAINS LESS THAN AT THIS POINT 24 HOURS
AGO. THE MOST NOTABLE CHANGE TO THE FCST REGARDING THESE
TEMPERATURE INCREASES IS A MAX TEMPERATURE OF 100 DEGREES AT
CHARLOTTE...WHICH WOULD BREAK THE OLD RECORD OF 99. UPON BLENDING
IN LATEST CONSSHORT DEWPOINTS...HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE A SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY...HOWEVER STILL JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA.
AS FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...LATEST SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE PROFILE SUPPORTING SEVERE PULSE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
DAMAGING MICROBURSTS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT...WHICH AGREES WELL
WITH THE PREVIOUS FCST. THEREFORE THE HWO WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 300 AM...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOWS A LITTLE MORE WEAKENING
TODAY...WITH A FEW METERS OF HEIGHT FALLS AT 500 MB. AT THE SFC AND
IN THE LLVLS...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY...WITH A WEAK WESTERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB FLOW AND SIMILAR 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES. SO
EXPECT TEMPS TO BE WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF YESTERDAY/S READINGS WITH
SIMILAR HUMIDITY. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN TOP OUT IN THE
98 TO 102 RANGE ACRS MOST OF THE PIEDMONT.
AS FOR CONVECTION...GUIDANCE SEEMS A LITTLE MORE BULLISH ON
RESPONSE...AS WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE ALLOWS FOR SLIGHTLY BETTER CAPE
AND LESS CIN. EXPECT SOLID CHC TO EVEN LIKELY POPS IN THE MTNS...AND
SLGT CHC TO LOW-END CHC IN THE PIEDMONT. THERE SHUD BE SUFFICIENT
CAPE AND DCAPE FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE WIND AND HAIL THREAT ACRS THE
AREA. SHEAR REMAINS WEAK...BUT TICKS UP SLIGHTLY WITH INCREASING
700-500 MB FLOW. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IN THE
20-30 KT RANGE ACRS NC. SO LOOSELY ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS MAY
BE POSSIBLE IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES...LIKE WHAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY TO
OUR NORTH.
TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE
EVENING...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER...OVERALL...STORMS SHUD WANE THRU THE OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL
BE AROUND PERSISTENCE OF LAST FEW NIGHTS...IN THE 60S MTNS AND UPPER
60S TO MID 70S PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...THE CAROLINAS AND NORTH GEORGIA WILL REMAIN
ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE WESTERLIES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS THE
CENTER OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. NEVERTHELESS...HEIGHTS WILL
REMAIN ANOMALOUSLY HIGH...SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF HOT (ALBEIT
NOT-AS-HOT) WEATHER AND AFTERNOON BUOYANCY THAT WILL BE VERY NEAR...
IF NOT LESS THAN WHAT IS TYPICALLY SEEN THIS TIME OF YEAR. SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...WHICH COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR CONVECTION...IN ADDITION TO TYPICAL TERRAIN EFFECTS. HIGHER THAN
TYPICAL CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL THEREFORE BE ADVERTISED
FRI AFTERNOON... ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NC...WITH 30 OR SO POPS
FAVORED ACROSS THE UPSTATE/NORTHEAST GA. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR A FEW PULSE SEVERE STORMS...BUT CONTINUED WEAK SHEAR
SHOULD NOT SUPPORT MUCH MORE THAN THAT.
FOR SATURDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE THERMODYNAMIC...
WHILE THE WEAK BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA IN
RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
BILL...MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SAT AFTERNOON POPS WILL
THEREFORE BE LOWER THAN ON FRIDAY...WITH GENERALLY CLIMATOLOGICAL
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ANTICIPATED. POPS ACTUALLY INCREASE ACROSS
OUR NORTHWEST ZONES SAT NIGHT...AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH BILL/S REMNANTS SWINGS ACROSS THE TENN VALLEY AND AT
LEAST BRUSHES THE NC PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM THURSDAY...SUNDAY MAY WIND UP BEING RATHER TAME
CONVECTIVE-WISE...AS THE AREA WILL SPEND MUCH OF THE DAY WITHIN
SUBSIDENT AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT OF T.D. BILL. NEVERTHELESS...A FEW
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE PM...MAINLY ACROSS THE MTNS.
TEMPS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE YET AGAIN AS HEIGHTS BEGIN RISING.
IN FACT...THIS IS THE DEVELOPING BIG STORY FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE...AS
THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE REGION AGAIN...THIS TIME FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. IN FACT...WIDESPREAD UPPER 90S SHOULD RETURN BY
MID-WEEK...IF NOT SOONER. THE PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN CONDUCIVE TO
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION. WITH THE AREA LIKELY
REMAINING JUST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH...SOME DEGREE
OF WEAK W/NW UPPER FLOW WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH COULD
OPEN THE POSSIBILITY OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION ORIGINATING FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY TO IMPACT THE REGION...ALTHOUGH THIS STORM TRACK IS MORE
LIKELY TO SET UP NORTH OF OUR AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A POSSIBLE DIRECT IMPACT FROM TSRA. EXPECT TO SEE
GENERALLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION. WILL CONTINUE WITH A
PROB30 STARTING AT 21Z...ALTHO ISOLD TSRA WILL BE DEVELOPING BEFORE
THEN. WINDS WILL START OUT LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING...THEN
FAVOR THE SW AROUND 5 KTS THIS AFTN. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CONVECTION
ACRS THE MTNS TO THE WEST...THERE MAY BE AN OUTFLOW THAT SWITCHES
THE DIRECTION TO THE NW AROUND 00Z. WINDS GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AGAIN THIS EVENING WITH LINGERING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED ACRS THE PIEDMONT WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS ACTIVITY IN THE MTNS THIS AFTN INTO EARLY
EVENING. WILL ADD PROB30 TO ALL SITES FOR TS...AND VCTS AT KAVL. THE
CONVECTION SHUD DIMINISH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT
THRU LATE MORNING...THEN PICK UP SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE SW THIS
AFTN...EXCEPT NW AT KAVL. FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN AROUND THE
AIRFIELD AT KAVL...SO I WILL ADD VSBY RESTRICTION AFTER 6Z. THE
OTHER SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR...BUT IF COVERAGE OF RAIN IS
GREAT ENUF NEAR ANY SITES...THERE MAY BE A LITTLE MORE FOG OUT THERE.
OUTLOOK...NEAR NORMAL COVERAGE OF AFTN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH SCT COVERAGE OVER THE MTNS AND ISOLATED OVER THE
PIEDMONT. MORNING RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG AND/OR STRATUS ARE
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL THE PREVIOUS DAY...AND
IN MTN VALLEYS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
15-21Z 21-03Z 03-09Z 09-12Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 94% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 89%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 94%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY JUNE 18TH...
GSP 101 1887
CLT 99 1944
AVL 94 1944
RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY JUNE 19TH...
GSP 103 1887
CLT 102 1944
AVL 92 1931/1933
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...ARK
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1046 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1042 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
LOW CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO NORTHEAST SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN SO
HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. HRRR PICKING UP ON THIS
PRETTY WELL AND SHOWS CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE.
CURRENT HIGH TEMPS APPEAR ON TRACK FOR THE TIME BEING SO NO BIG
CHANGES THERE. FORECAST FOR TODAY REMAINS DRY WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
REMNANT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE COMPLEX WHICH
TRACKED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA LAST EVENING IS
ONGOING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST CWA. THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST...EXITING THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD DRY OUT FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS
DEVELOP A 30+ KT LLJ AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
MODELS SUGGEST INITIAL STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE NOSE OF THE
JET...BUT THEN TRACK FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY SLIDES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. CERTAINLY AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THREAT AS 0-6 KM SHEAR TOPS OUT AROUND 50 KTS. CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY LINGER OVER THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CAP WILL BE OVER THE
CWA THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER /700 MB TEMPS RANGE FROM
10 TO 14 C FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA/. WHILE MODELS ARE
STILL STRUGGLING IN THE CONSENSUS DEPARTMENT...IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE
BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER AND WILL
AGAIN BE A LATE NIGHT SHOW DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AND THE SURFACE FRONT. SEVERE PARAMETERS STILL LOOK RATHER
IMPRESSIVE...AND SPC HAS PLACED THE NORTHERN CWA INTO A MODERATE
RISK.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
FAST AND RELATIVELY FLAT MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM. THIS MEANS PERIODIC MCS ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE REGION. UNFORTUNATELY TIMING ISSUES ABOUND WITH THE
DIFFERENT MODELS AND THUS A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH TO POPS HAD TO BE
USED. NEEDLESS TO SAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH
THIS MORNING ON DETERMINISTIC DETAILS. A LL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE
HANGING OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD...LENDING MORE
SUPPORT FOR PERIODIC SHOWERS/STORMS. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING WILL LIFT QUICKLY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED REGION WIDE THEREAFTER. THERE IS SOME CHC OF STORMS
MAKING IT INTO KPIR/KMBG LATE THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT...BUT
CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS LOW SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAFS FOR THE TIME
BEING.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
747 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS BEHIND THE
DEPARTING REMNANTS OF TS BILL. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS CONTINUE
ALONG THE RED RIVER AND SOME LOWER CIGS ARE OCCURRING EAST OF THE
MAJOR AIRPORTS THIS MORNING. THERE ARE SOME LOWER CIGS WELL WEST
OF WACO THIS MORNING. CURRENTLY WE DONT THINK THEY WILL MAKE IT
INTO NORTH TEXAS BUT IT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
OTHERWISE...SCT/BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE MVFR
CIGS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT.
CONCERNING THUNDERSTORMS...THERE IS SOME CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THE BULK OF ANY ACTIVITY WOULD BE EAST OF THE MAJOR AIRPORTS.
CONCERNING WINDS...SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15KT WILL BE THE
PREVAILING DIRECTION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER THERE ARE
STRONGER WINDS AROUND 2000FT. IF FULL SUN CAN PERSIST LATER THIS
MORNING...WINDS COULD BECOME GUSTY FOR SEVERAL HOURS AS THEY MIX
DOWN.
DUNN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 736 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015/
THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR STILL DEVELOPS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS AREAS
EAST OF I-35 AND ALSO IN AREAS SOUTH OF I-20. THE TEXAS TECH WRF
SHOWS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE RED RIVER AND ALSO EAST OF A
BONHAM TO LAMPASAS LINE. GIVEN THESE SOLUTIONS AND ALSO ONES FROM
THE NMM WRF AND THE ARW WRF...HAVE DECIDED TO LOWER POPS ALONG AND
WEST OF I-35 EXCEPT RIGHT NEAR THE RED RIVER. HAVE LEFT THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AS IS BUT WE MAY BE ABLE TO CARVE SOME COUNTIES OUT OF
IT LATER THIS MORNING.
58
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 89 74 93 76 92 / 30 20 20 10 5
WACO, TX 90 73 92 74 91 / 40 20 20 5 10
PARIS, TX 80 71 88 73 90 / 60 50 20 10 10
DENTON, TX 86 70 92 74 91 / 30 20 20 10 5
MCKINNEY, TX 86 71 92 73 91 / 40 30 20 10 10
DALLAS, TX 89 75 93 76 91 / 30 20 20 10 10
TERRELL, TX 87 72 92 74 90 / 50 30 20 10 10
CORSICANA, TX 86 73 91 73 90 / 50 20 20 5 10
TEMPLE, TX 89 72 90 73 90 / 50 20 20 5 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 91 70 92 72 92 / 20 20 20 5 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091>095-
105>107-120>123-134-135-145>148-158>162-174-175.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
736 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
.DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR STILL DEVELOPS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS AREAS
EAST OF I-35 AND ALSO IN AREAS SOUTH OF I-20. THE TEXAS TECH WRF
SHOWS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE RED RIVER AND ALSO EAST OF A
BONHAM TO LAMPASAS LINE. GIVEN THESE SOLUTIONS AND ALSO ONES FROM
THE NMM WRF AND THE ARW WRF...HAVE DECIDED TO LOWER POPS ALONG AND
WEST OF I-35 EXCEPT RIGHT NEAR THE RED RIVER. HAVE LEFT THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AS IS BUT WE MAY BE ABLE TO CARVE SOME COUNTIES OUT OF
IT LATER THIS MORNING.
58
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 112 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015/
/06Z TAFS/
CONCERNS...CEILINGS.
AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL MOVES INTO OKLAHOMA...IT WILL TAKE ITS
PRECIPITATION WITH IT. IN ADDITION...WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO
STEADILY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT...WITH A PREVAILING SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION.
MVFR CEILINGS ARE JUST UPSTREAM OF WACO...AND EXPECT THAT THESE
WILL INVADE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. GUIDANCE STILL
SUGGESTS SIMILAR CONDITIONS IN THE METROPLEX...BUT WITH THE DRY
SLOT IN PLACE...THIS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK WHEN THE
SUN HEATS THE MOIST SURFACE LAYER. FOR NOW...HAVE MVFR CEILINGS
ARRIVING AT 09Z...AT WHICH POINT THE SITUATION CAN BE REASSESSED
FOR THE ROUTINE AMENDMENTS. THE CEILINGS SHOULD STEADILY CLIMB ON
THURSDAY. WACO WILL BE THE FARTHEST FROM THE LINGERING WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE AND WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SCATTER OUT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
25
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 89 74 93 76 92 / 30 20 20 10 5
WACO, TX 90 73 92 74 91 / 40 20 20 5 10
PARIS, TX 80 71 88 73 90 / 60 50 20 10 10
DENTON, TX 86 70 92 74 91 / 30 20 20 10 5
MCKINNEY, TX 86 71 92 73 91 / 40 30 20 10 10
DALLAS, TX 89 75 93 76 91 / 30 20 20 10 10
TERRELL, TX 87 72 92 74 90 / 50 30 20 10 10
CORSICANA, TX 86 73 91 73 90 / 50 20 20 5 10
TEMPLE, TX 89 72 90 73 90 / 50 20 20 5 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 91 70 92 72 92 / 20 20 20 5 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091>095-
105>107-120>123-134-135-145>148-158>162-174-175.
&&
$$
91/58
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1044 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. A WEAK FRONT NORTH OF THE
AREA WILL OSCILLATE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND AND BE THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY INTERACT WITH MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BILL TO BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM EDT THURSDAY...
WEAK FRONT HAS SLIPPED BACK NORTH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH
OVERALL WEST TO SW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AND DRIER AIR ALOFT AS
SEEN OFF MORNING SOUNDINGS. ALSO GIVEN LOWER PWATS AND DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN...APPEARS CONVECTIVE THREAT MUCH
LOWER AT LEAST EARLY ON ESPCLY WITH THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT
NOW TO THE NE UNDER LACK OF FORCING ALOFT. APPEARS BEST FOCUS WILL
AGAIN BE WITH CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES WHERE MORE IN
THE WAY OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING APPEARS LIKELY. STRENGTH AND
DEGREE OF MIXING WITH THE WEST WIND AND CORRESPONDING DOWNSLOPE
THE KEY TO SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST AS
SHOULD SEE QUITE A BIT LESS OR DELAYED COVERAGE IF WINDS STAY
BETTER MIXED INTO AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON. LATEST HRRR AGAIN THE
WETTEST WITH ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT BLUE RIDGE AND SOME CLUSTERING
SE WEST VA LATER ON WHEN MIXING WEAKENS AND PERHAPS A FAINT
UPSTREAM WEAK IMPULSE APPROACHES. REMAINDER OF SOLUTIONS INCLUDING
THE 12Z NAM MUCH LESS AMBITIOUS...WITH COVERAGE MAINLY WEST THIS
EVENING WHEN CAPPING ALOFT FADES...AND MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT WILL BE SAGGING BACK SOUTH LATE. THUS
TRIMMED BACK POPS WHILE RUNNING WITH LOW CHANCES WEST...AND
MAINLY 20-30 COVERAGE BLUE RIDGE EAST WHERE THE FLOW MAY BACK SW A
LITTLE MORE.
OTRW ANOTHER VERY HOT/HUMID AFTERNOON UNDER MOSTLY/PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES PER CI/CU...WITH THICKNESS PUSHING MID/UPPER 90S EAST GIVEN
WEAK DOWNSLOPE AND 85-90 WEST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...
STARTING THE DAY OFF WITH A FOG IN A COUPLE AREAS THANKS TO WET
SOILS FROM RAINFALL WEDNESDAY EVENING...AS WELL AS LIGHT WINDS
AND DECREASING CLOUD COVER. ANY FOG WHICH DEVELOPS WILL BE QUICK
TO BURN OFF AFTER 9 AM AS HEATING INCREASES.
THE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE MORE DOMINATED BY
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY...RESULTING
IN GENERALLY WESTERLY WINDFLOW. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS MORNING...HOWEVER THE
RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY...ALLOWING SUBTLE
DISTURBANCES TO PASS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT SPOTTY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460
BEGINNING AROUND LUNCHTIME AS ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE ENTERS FROM THE
WEST. AS THE DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED...LIKELY SOLIDIFYING INTO A BROKEN LINE AS THEY PASS
ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE. STRONG HEATING TODAY FROM THE DOWNSLOPE
WINDFLOW WILL ALLOW THE LOW LEVELS TO DRY OUT...INCREASING THE
THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS WITH THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH
CANNOT RULE OUT HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN WITH SOME OF THE LARGER
STORMS.
AS THIS AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS EXITS...WILL ALSO HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE TO OUR NORTHWEST THURSDAY EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS ANOTHER
POTENTIAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO RIVER. STILL A LITTLE
DIFFICULT TO SAY AT THIS POINT HOW FAR INTO OUR AREA THESE STORMS
WILL ADVANCE OR WHAT SHAPE THEY WILL BE IN WHEN THEY ARRIVE...BUT
GIVEN THE TIMING OF THEIR PASSAGE...EXPECT THAT THEY WILL BE BELOW
SEVERE INTENSITY.
THE COMBINATION OF RIDGING ALOFT AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN THE LOW
LEVELS WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHSIDE WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT LOW TO MID 90S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...
AND MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT THURSDAY...
EXPECT BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER SINKS SOUTHWARD. CONVECTION
WILL PULSE UP DURING LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING MORE
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE
EVENING. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND INSTABILITY APPEAR TO BE MODEST...
HOWEVER WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STORMS BECOME SEVERE.
THE MAIN ACTIVITY WILL PUSH EAST OF OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...
LEAVING ONLY LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...BRINGING WITH IT A
NORTHEASTERLY WINDSHIFT ACROSS THE AREA.
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE RIDGELINES COMBINED WITH
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL WILL TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF PULSE
VARIETY STORMS BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE
MAIN ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH BILL WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL SATURDAY
NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING THAT THE SYSTEM
WILL PASS UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...DRAWING WITH IT A PLUME OF
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...WITH PWATS AROUND 2.2 INCHES COMING INTO
THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. BELIEVE THE SYSTEM WILL PLAY OUT AS A SOLID
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AS IT ENTERS OUR AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...AFFECTING MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS OF VIRGINIA AND
WEST VIRGINIA. THE REMNANTS OF BILL WILL MOVE QUICKLY HOWEVER...SO
DO NOT BELIEVE THAT HEAVY RAIN WILL LAST FOR MORE THAN A FEW HOURS
BEFORE EXITING THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
ON MONDAY THE TS REMNANTS WILL BE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND GETTING
ABSORBED BY ANOTHER LOW/FRONTAL SYSTEM SWEEPING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST.
THERE IS NOTHING TO PUSH THIS FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION SO IT WILL
SIMPLY PIVOT/MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA AS THE UPPER PATTERN STARTS TO
AMPLIFY AGAIN WITH A RIDGE BECOMING REESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN US.
THIS WILL KEEP US LOCKED INTO THE HEAT WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO GRADUALLY
NUDGE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT
THE BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK AND LEAVE US VULNERABLE TO UPSTREAM MCS DEVELOPMENT SLIDING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. WITHOUT ANYTHING DEFINITIVE TO LATCH ON
TO WILL KEEP POPS LOW AND WAIT FOR THE SITUATION TO DEFINE ITSELF
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 800 AM EDT THURSDAY...
ANOTHER WARM MUGGY DAY ANTICIPATED WITH AFTERNOON BUILD-UPS AND
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. ASIDE FROM THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT...CONDITIONS TO REMAIN PRIMARILY VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF
PERIOD. WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE SOUTH...WINDS AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN WESTERLY WIND FLOW OVER
THE FORECAST AREA...GUSTY AT TIMES.
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL BE WEAKEN WITH TIME AS THE
REMNANTS OF TS BILL MOVE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
MODELS SUGGEST THE BEST LIFT OVER OUR AREA FROM TS BILL WILL OCCUR
SATUDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...
RECORD HIGHS FOR THURSDAY JUNE 18TH...
STATION RECORD HIGHS/YEAR
ROANOKE 97/1925
LYNCHBURG 96/1944
DANVILLE 96/2007
BLACKSBURG 88/2014
BLUEFIELD 90/2007
LEWISBURG 89/2014
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...JH/NF
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...NF/PM
CLIMATE...JH/PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
218 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2015
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVED THRU MUCH OF THE SERN PLAINS TODAY AND
IS SITTING OVR THE SE CORNER OF THE STATE. BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY...DEW POINTS ARE MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPR 50S...AND
WARMING HAS BEEN SLOWED. CONVECTION HAS BEEN VERY LIMITED SO FAR
THIS AFTERNOON... WITH JUST SOME ISOLD STORMS OVR THE SRN MTNS.
SPC MESO ANALYSIS INDICATES CAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG OVR A
GOOD SHARE OF THE SERN PLAINS...NOT INCLUDING LAS ANIMAS COUNTY.
0-6KM SHEAR VALUES ARE ABOUT 40 KTS NR THE KS BORDER. WITH THE
BOUNDARY SITTING OVR THE SERN CORNER OF THE STATE...IT WL SERVE AS
FOCUS FOR TSTMS DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS AREA WL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS AND THUS A SEVERE TSTM WATCH WL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR BACA COUNTY. THE HRRR SHOWS THE BEST CHANCES FOR TSTMS
OVR THE SERN CORNER INTO EARLY EVENING AND THEN MOVING SOUTH OF
THE BORDER. IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS...THE HRRR
ALSO SHOWS TSTMS ALONG THE ERN MTNS WORKING THEIR WAY EASTWARD.
VERY LITTLE CHANCE FOR PCPN IS EXPECTED OVR WRN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.
ON FRI A WEAK UPR RIDGE WL BE OVR THE AREA...WITH CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO BE A BIT DRIER. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION SHOULD BE ISOLD
AND MAINLY CONFINED TO OVR AND NR THE MTNS AND MAYBE ACRS THE SRN
BORDER AREA IN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY. H7 TEMPS ACRS THE FORECAST AREA
FRI AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM ABOUT 17C-20C. AFTERNOON
HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 90S ACRS THE SERN PLAINS AND IN THE 80S OVR
THE HIGH VALLEYS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2015
...HOT AND DRY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY...
LOOKS LIKE A STABLE SUMMER PATTERN IS HERE TO STAY. A STRONG H5 HIGH
WILL BUILD OVER SRN CA THIS WEEKEND AND THEN DRIFT SLOWLY EWD OVER
NRN NM EARLY NEXT WEEK. H7 TEMPS WILL CLIMB FROM AROUND 16 DEG C
EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO 20 DEGREES OR MORE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. DURING THIS TIME...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF CONVECTION WITH VERY DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE SW. CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME LOCAL BUILD-UPS OVR THE MTS...AND MAYBE SOME VIRGA...BUT
MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL BE TOUGH TO COME BY. SO...HAVE DROPPED POPS
BELOW MENTIONABLE THRESHOLDS...MAINTAINING ONLY SINGLE DIGIT POPS
ON A DIURNAL BASIS OVER THE MTS. MOS TEMPS REMAIN AT 100 DEGREES OR
HIGHER FOR THE PLAINS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP TEMPS
OVER THE LOWER ARKANSAS JUST BELOW 100 SINCE SURFACE DEWS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY HIGH AND THIS MAY CUT THE HIGH END OFF JUST A BIT. BUT IT
WILL BE HOT. HOT AND DRY.
BY WED AND BEYOND...SOME DIFFERENCES BETWN THE GFS AND ECMWF AS THE
FORMER REBUILDS THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE DESERT SW WHILE THE LATTER
BREAKS THINGS DOWN A BIT MORE. BOTH MODELS BRING IN A BIT MORE
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...WHICH SHOULD BRING BACK DIURNAL
SHOWERS/STORMS AND HOLD HIGH TEMPS DOWN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS.
ENSEMBLE BASED TEMPS AND POPS LOOK REASONABLE IN THE EXTENDED...AS WE
SLOWLY HEAD TOWARD MORE OF A MID-SUMMER REGIME WITH THE MONSOON RIGHT
AROUND THE CORNER. ROSE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
SOME SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY MOVE INTO THE VCNTY OF KCOS AND KPUB
THIS EVENING.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
431 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION
TOMORROW MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND...AS WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 430 PM EDT...A PROGRESSIVE AND DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER S-CNTRL ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC WITH THE CLOSED H500 CIRCULATION
OVER HUDSON BAY WILL BREAK DOWN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BRIEFLY
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. A COLD FRONT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN MOVE S/SE ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT OVER THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND PA HAS BEEN VERY ISOLATED. A SFC WAVE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT OVER THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES
REGION...WILL BE QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR THE SHOWERS TO INCREASE TONIGHT
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND THEN TO EXPAND EASTWARD. THE
LATEST MODEL TREND WITH THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF IS TOO SLOW DOWN THE
COLD FRONT. THE GFS IS STILL THE FASTEST. THE BEST SBCAPES ON THE
GFS AT 00Z ARE IN THE 250-500 J/KG RANGE OVER THE NW PORTION OF
THE FCST AREA WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO 35-45 KTS. THE
LATEST HRRR SHOWS SOME THUNDERSTORMS FORMING...BUT THE INSTABILITY
WILL BE DECREASING EVEN MORE...AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. THE
PARCELS MAY ACTUALLY BE MORE ELEVATED OVERNIGHT...AS THE LATEST
SHOWALTER VALUES CONTINUE IN THE 0C TO -2C RANGE. WE KEPT A CHC OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN UNTIL ABOUT 06Z- 07Z...AND LOWERED TO SLIGHT CHC
THEREAFTER. THE POTENTIAL ELEVATED CONVECTION IS LIKELY DUE TO THE
OLD WARM FRONT WASHING OUT. AGAIN...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SEVERE
WITH THE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SOME
BRIEF BURSTS OF RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE...AS THE COLD FRONT BEGIN TO
MOVE FROM S/SE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AN AREA OF LIKELY POPS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH AND WEST WHERE THE BETTER LIFT AND
CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH CHC VALUES TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST.
LOWS TONIGHT WERE FAVORED TOWARDS THE WARMER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
WITH THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT. LOWS IN THE MID TO U50S
ARE LIKELY OVER THE MTNS...WITH MAINLY LOWER TO M60S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...THE CONSENSUS WITH
THE SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE IS A SLOWER TREND WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
SFC COLD FRONT...ITS ASSOCIATED DEWPT BOUNDARY...AND THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE THE SLOWEST...WITH THE GFS/ECMWF
A BIT FASTER. A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST
FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION/GLENS FALLS/SARATOGA REGION/SRN
VT SOUTH AND EAST IN THE MORNING.
THE LATER TIMING WILL ALLOW SLIGHTLY WARMER MAX TEMPS WITH THE
W/NW DOWNSLOPING WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY ALLOWING SOME
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING...ESPECIALLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MID
HUDSON VALLEY. THE SFC HIGH WILL BE QUICKLY BUILDING IN FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR IN THE
AFTERNOON FROM THE N/NW TO S/SE DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND WITH THE APPROACHING ANTICYCLONE.
IT WILL BE A BREEZY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE RELATIVELY STRONG SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS...AND BETTER MIXING FROM
ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO ISOLATED M80S FROM THE SRN
REACHES OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SRN
TACONICS IN THE PORTIONS OF LITCHFIELD CTY CT...MID AND U70S WILL
BE COMMON IN MANY OF THE OTHER VALLEY LOCATIONS AND OVER THE
HILLS...WITH M60S TO M70S OVER THE MTNS. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM
THE NW/N AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 MPH.
TOMORROW NIGHT...A CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS THAT BECOME LIGHT TO CALM...AS THE SFC HIGH
MOVES OVERHEARD. IT IS A VERY COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS. H850 TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE +7C TO +10C RANGE. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE U40S TO M50S FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION/MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST...AND MAINLY 40-45F
NORTH OF ALBANY WITH A FEW U30S OVER THE SRN DACKS.
SATURDAY...A NICE START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC
HIGH MOVING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUNNY/MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM
THE SOUTH AND WEST IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT OVER THE OH VALLEY
AND MID ATLANTIC SATES. THE REMNANT CIRCULATION FROM BILL WILL
ALSO APPROACH THE OH VALLEY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY POP UP LATE IN
THE DAY OVER THE CATSKILLS AND BERKSHIRES. OTHERWISE FAIR AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE MID AND U70S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND M60S TO L70S OVER
THE MTNS.
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH
THE WARM FRONT LIFTING N/NE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...AND A
SFC WAVE AND COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE TROUGH THAT WAS FORMERLY BILL LOOKS TO STAY SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THE INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND THETA-E ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS
TO INCREASE. THE SHOWALTER VALUES LOWER TO 0C TO -2C. THE PWATS
LOOKS TO INCREASE TO 1.25-1.75 INCHES. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS
ARE IN THE GRIDS WITH CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AND WILL MENTION IN THE HWO.
THE GREATEST THREAT LOOKS TO BE ON SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE RATHER ACTIVE...AS THE
REMNANTS OF TC BILL WILL BE PASSING BY THE SOUTH OF THE REGION ON
SUNDAY.
THE CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS
MANY OF THE 12Z GEFS MEMBERS...SHOWS THE REMNANT SFC LOW AND
HEAVIEST QPF ASSOCIATED WITH BILL MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION.
STILL...WITH PWAT VALUES AS HIGH AS 2-3 STD ABOVE NORMAL...ANY
SHOWER OR T-STORM OVER THE REGION WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SHOWERS
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...AS AN APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
WILL TEAM UP WITH THE REMNANT TC CIRCULATION TO ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/T-STORMS. T-STORM ACTIVITY DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE TOO STRONG
DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY DUE TO PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND WARM
MID LEVEL TEMPS. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE HELD DOWN MAINLY INTO THE
70S THANKS TO THE PRECIP/CLOUDS.
ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS LOOKS TO BE ON
SUNDAY...THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT OR
MONDAY THANKS TO THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. TEMPS LOOK TO HOLD
IN THE 60S FOR SUN NIGHT...AND MID 70S TO LOW 80S FOR MONDAY...WITH
MORE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED AS THE BEST UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
STARTS TO MOVE AWAY.
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE
YET ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IMPACTS THE REGION FOR TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHC FOR THUNDER DURING TUESDAY
AFTN/EVE. TEMPS ON MON NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S...AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL PROBABLY BE IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR
80.
BEHIND THE STORM/S COLD FRONT...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL START
WORKING TO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SKIES WILL START TO CLEAR OUT TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOWS LATE ON TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. DRY WEATHER WITH
A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WARM FRONT IS GRADUALLY APPROACHING AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
AS A COLD FRONT BEARS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVING
OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
CURRENTLY HAVE MVFR CEILINGS AT KGFL...KPOU AND KPSF WITH VFR AT
KALB. BY THIS EVENING WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THIS
EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EVENTUALLY DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT WEAKENS AND THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN.
HAVE PUT SHOWERS IN THE TAFS WHEN THE HIGHEST CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. HAVE NOT
INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER IN TAFS AS CHANCES ARE TOO LOW.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WIND WILL SHIFT AND CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON
AT KGFL AND KALB WITH MVFR LINGERING THROUGH 18Z/FRIDAY AT KPSF
AND KPOU.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING THROUGH THE EVENING. THEY
SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE JUST BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
THEN SHIFT TO NORTHWEST THE NORTH IN ITS WAKE. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BE GUSTY KALB IN THE EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...AS WET AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RECOVER TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
...AND DECREASE TO 25 TO 45 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE RH
VALUES RECOVER TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT SATURDAY MORNING.
THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 5-15 MPH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...AND WILL SHIFT TO THE W
TO NW AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 10 TO
20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH TOMORROW IN THE LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...BUT SOME RISES ARE POSSIBLE ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AS SOME WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
RETURNS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL RANGE FROM ONE TENTH TO A THIRD AN INCH WITH SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION.
WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY MONDAY...AS THE MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL ENTITY
BILL MAY IMPACT PARTS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE VARIABLE RIGHT NOW...BUT A WIDESPREAD HALF AN INCH AN INCH IS
LIKELY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
241 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM`S
ASSOCIATED BOUNDARIES WILL BRING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT, A
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL RETURN FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 135 PM EDT...A COLD FRONT AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE WARM FRONT TO SYSTEM
REMAINS SOUTH AND WEST OF CNTRL NY AND ERN PA. HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO RETREAT EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE.
MUCH OF THE FCST AREA REMAINS IN STABLE AND CLOUDY AIR MASS. THE
BEST SFC HEATING CONTINUES TO BE OVER NRN NY AND JUST SOUTH AND
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS RAP DATA
INDICATES VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY THE ALY FCST AREA WITH MUCAPES
OF 250 J/KG OVER THE NRN REACHES OF THE SRN DACKS. THE BEST
INSTABILITY OF MUCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG OVER WRN-NRN NY. A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE MOVED INTO THE CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY/SARATOGA
REGION/NRN CATSKILLS. THE POPS WERE REDUCED FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT/HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST BASED ON THE RADAR AND
LATEST HRRR REFLECTIVITY TRENDS. ALSO TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY
BASED ON THE OBSERVATIONS. THE BEST SHOWERS AND ISOLD- SCT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE TONIGHT WITH
LIMITED INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. THE LATEST SPC DAY 1 GRAPHIC HAS
ONLY HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES IN THE MARGINAL RISK.
LATE PM THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
COLD FRONT PROGRESSING THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA IS FORECAST TO
TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND UPSTATE NY THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL ASSIST WITH ENHANCING THE LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR
MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN RATHER POOR AND DUE TO THE
NOCTURNAL TIMING OF FROPA ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE
CWFA...SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS VERY LOW. WE WILL MENTION ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH MAINLY SHOWERS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. MOS NUMBERS ARE RATHER SIMILAR AS A BLENDED APPROACH
WAS UTILIZED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRIDAY...AS MODEL TRENDS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE FROPA...WE
WILL RETAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF I90 IN THE MORNING.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING
THE MORNING HOURS WITH FROPA AS IMPROVING SKY COVERAGE COMMENCES FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. THE TERRAIN MAY HOLD ONTO SOME CLOUD COVERAGE BUT
EVENTUALLY THE SUBSIDENCE SEEN IN THE OMEGA FIELDS WITHIN THE
NCEP MODEL SUITE WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE. H850 TEMPS COOL
BACK INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS BY THE END OF THE DAY WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS SUGGEST WE WILL HAVE THE
OPPORTUNITY TO TAP INTO HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT FOR SURFACE
WIND GUSTS NEAR 20KTS.
A COOL AND PLEASANT EVENING IS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT WITH IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EVOLVING AS THE CANADIAN SFC HIGH
MOVES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND. H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +6C TO
+8C RANGE FROM THE I90 CORRIDOR AND POINTS NORTH...AND +8C TO
+10C TO THE SOUTH. LOWS WILL BE IN THE U40S TO L50S FROM THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION SOUTH...AND 40-45F TO THE
NORTH...PERHAPS A FEW ISOLD U30S IN THE SRN DACKS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY ZONAL UPPER PATTERN ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF FLAT
UPPER RIDGING IN THE EASTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE THE VERY CHANGEABLE
WEATHER FROM DAY TO DAY...THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS PATTERN
OF WHAT SEEMS TO BE ALTERNATING ONE OR TWO DRY DAYS THEN ONE OR TWO
WET DAYS SHOULD CONTINUE AS WEST MEAN FLOW KEEPS FEEDING UPPER
ENERGY AND MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION EVERY DAY OR TWO.
APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY SATURDAY NIGHT MAY INTERACT WITH
THE REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM AND PROVIDE GENERALLY UNSETTLED
WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO
INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT...REACHING LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY (AROUND 70
PERCENT)...THEN DECREASING POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY. IT WILL BECOME QUITE HUMID DURING THIS PERIOD WITH DEWPOINTS
RISING INTO THE 60S IN MOST PLACES. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 70S TO
LOWER 80S.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY...BUT WITH LINGERING TROFINESS
ALOFT...A SHOWER OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...SO HAVE KEPT
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. BECOMING LESS HUMID
MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER AND LOWS 50 TO 60.
ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL AFFECT OUR REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO HAVE FORECAST NO HIGHER THAN 30
PERCENT POPS DURING THIS PERIOD. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE 70 TO 80.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY
AND BRING PLEASANT WEATHER. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 60S AND 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WARM FRONT IS GRADUALLY APPROACHING AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
AS A COLD FRONT BEARS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVING
OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
CURRENTLY HAVE MVFR CEILINGS AT KGFL...KPOU AND KPSF WITH VFR AT
KALB. BY THIS EVENING WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THIS
EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EVENTUALLY DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT WEAKENS AND THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN.
HAVE PUT SHOWERS IN THE TAFS WHEN THE HIGHEST CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. HAVE NOT
INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER IN TAFS AS CHANCES ARE TOO LOW.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WIND WILL SHIFT AND CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON
AT KGFL AND KALB WITH MVFR LINGERING THROUGH 18Z/FRIDAY AT KPSF
AND KPOU.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING THROUGH THE EVENING. THEY
SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE JUST BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
THEN SHIFT TO NORTHWEST THE NORTH IN ITS WAKE. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BE GUSTY KALB IN THE EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDS ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST INTO TONIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF
A COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DECREASE TO 45 TO 65 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON. THE RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO CLOSE TO 100
PERCENT TONIGHT.
THE WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 5-10 MPH THIS
MORNING...AND BE SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THEN SHIFT TO THE W TO NW AT 5 TO 15 MPH THURSDAY NIGHT. A
NORTHERLY BREEZE FRIDAY WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER LEVELS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RECEDE INTO
THURSDAY...WITH SOME POSSIBLE RISES ON THE WEEKEND.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM ONE TENTH TO A THIRD AN INCH
WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION.
WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...AS THE MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL ENTITY BILL MAY IMPACT
PARTS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
135 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM`S
ASSOCIATED BOUNDARIES WILL BRING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT, A
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL RETURN FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 135 PM EDT...A COLD FRONT AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE WARM FRONT TO SYSTEM
REMAINS SOUTH AND WEST OF CNTRL NY AND ERN PA. HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO RETREAT EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE.
MUCH OF THE FCST AREA REMAINS IN STABLE AND CLOUDY AIR MASS. THE
BEST SFC HEATING CONTINUES TO BE OVER NRN NY AND JUST SOUTH AND
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS RAP DATA
INDICATES VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY THE ALY FCST AREA WITH MUCAPES
OF 250 J/KG OVER THE NRN REACHES OF THE SRN DACKS. THE BEST
INSTABILITY OF MUCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG OVER WRN-NRN NY. A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE MOVED INTO THE CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY/SARATOGA
REGION/NRN CATSKILLS. THE POPS WERE REDUCED FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT/HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST BASED ON THE RADAR AND
LATEST HRRR REFLECTIVITY TRENDS. ALSO TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY
BASED ON THE OBSERVATIONS. THE BEST SHOWERS AND ISOLD- SCT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE TONIGHT WITH
LIMITED INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. THE LATEST SPC DAY 1 GRAPHIC HAS
ONLY HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES IN THE MARGINAL RISK.
LATE PM THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
COLD FRONT PROGRESSING THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA IS FORECAST TO
TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND UPSTATE NY THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL ASSIST WITH ENHANCING THE LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR
MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN RATHER POOR AND DUE TO THE
NOCTURNAL TIMING OF FROPA ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE
CWFA...SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS VERY LOW. WE WILL MENTION ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH MAINLY SHOWERS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. MOS NUMBERS ARE RATHER SIMILAR AS A BLENDED APPROACH
WAS UTILIZED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRIDAY...AS MODEL TRENDS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE FROPA...WE
WILL RETAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF I90 IN THE MORNING.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING
THE MORNING HOURS WITH FROPA AS IMPROVING SKY COVERAGE COMMENCES FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. THE TERRAIN MAY HOLD ONTO SOME CLOUD COVERAGE BUT
EVENTUALLY THE SUBSIDENCE SEEN IN THE OMEGA FIELDS WITHIN THE
NCEP MODEL SUITE WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE. H850 TEMPS COOL
BACK INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS BY THE END OF THE DAY WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS SUGGEST WE WILL HAVE THE
OPPORTUNITY TO TAP INTO HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT FOR SURFACE
WIND GUSTS NEAR 20KTS.
A COOL AND PLEASANT EVENING IS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT WITH IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EVOLVING AS THE CANADIAN SFC HIGH
MOVES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND. H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +6C TO
+8C RANGE FROM THE I90 CORRIDOR AND POINTS NORTH...AND +8C TO
+10C TO THE SOUTH. LOWS WILL BE IN THE U40S TO L50S FROM THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION SOUTH...AND 40-45F TO THE
NORTH...PERHAPS A FEW ISOLD U30S IN THE SRN DACKS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY ZONAL UPPER PATTERN ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF FLAT
UPPER RIDGING IN THE EASTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE THE VERY CHANGEABLE
WEATHER FROM DAY TO DAY...THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS PATTERN
OF WHAT SEEMS TO BE ALTERNATING ONE OR TWO DRY DAYS THEN ONE OR TWO
WET DAYS SHOULD CONTINUE AS WEST MEAN FLOW KEEPS FEEDING UPPER
ENERGY AND MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION EVERY DAY OR TWO.
APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY SATURDAY NIGHT MAY INTERACT WITH
THE REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM AND PROVIDE GENERALLY UNSETTLED
WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO
INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT...REACHING LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY (AROUND 70
PERCENT)...THEN DECREASING POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY. IT WILL BECOME QUITE HUMID DURING THIS PERIOD WITH DEWPOINTS
RISING INTO THE 60S IN MOST PLACES. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 70S TO
LOWER 80S.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY...BUT WITH LINGERING TROFINESS
ALOFT...A SHOWER OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...SO HAVE KEPT
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. BECOMING LESS HUMID
MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER AND LOWS 50 TO 60.
ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL AFFECT OUR REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO HAVE FORECAST NO HIGHER THAN 30
PERCENT POPS DURING THIS PERIOD. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE 70 TO 80.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY
AND BRING PLEASANT WEATHER. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 60S AND 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WARM FRONT IS GRADUALLY APPROACHING AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
AS A COLD FRONT BEARS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH TONIGHT.
VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS AREA WITH VFR-MVFR
CEILINGS. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND EMBEDDED WITHIN A FAST WEST-
EAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS REGION THERE ARE A FEW SUBTLE SHORT WAVES
SO CAN NOT RULE OUT WIDELY SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE DAY WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDER AS THE WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER LATE IN THE DAY. THE HRRR INDICATES
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING.
AS THREAT FOR SHOWERS BECOMES MORE NUMEROUS AND HAVE FORECAST
MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES DUE TO SHOWERS. TSTMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE...BUT THE CHANCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME. LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THE
SHOWERS WILL END AND THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST OR NORTH
BEHIND A COLD FRONT...BUT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS
OF AROUND 15 KTS AT KALB. THESE WIND CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE
WELL INTO THURSDAY NIGHT....THEN SHIFT TO NORTH OR NORTHWEST
BETWEEN 08Z AND 11Z FRIDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDS ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST INTO TONIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF
A COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DECREASE TO 45 TO 65 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON. THE RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO CLOSE TO 100
PERCENT TONIGHT.
THE WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 5-10 MPH THIS
MORNING...AND BE SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THEN SHIFT TO THE W TO NW AT 5 TO 15 MPH THURSDAY NIGHT. A
NORTHERLY BREEZE FRIDAY WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER LEVELS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RECEDE INTO
THURSDAY...WITH SOME POSSIBLE RISES ON THE WEEKEND.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM ONE TENTH TO A THIRD AN INCH
WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION.
WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...AS THE MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL ENTITY BILL MAY IMPACT
PARTS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...IAA/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1240 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE THE PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING
WHICH LIFTED DURING MID MORNING. OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK
TODAY AS CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES DURING THE
REST OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON FROM I-72 SOUTH WHERE
LIKELY CHANCES CONTINUE. KILX 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUE OF 1.52 INCHES AND NAM FORECAST THESE VALUES TO
INCREASE BETWEEN 1.50-2.25 INCHES DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM IL
RIVER SOUTHEAST. SO THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS FROM IL RIVER SOUTHEAST. SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK EAST OF IL OVER
IN/OH WHERE BETTER INSTABLITY WILL BE FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS FROM WET MICROBURSTS. BUT MARGINAL RISK EXIST FROM ALONG THE IL
RIVER SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL. REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM BILL OVER EASTERN OK
WHERE 580 DM 500 MB LOW IS...WILL TRACK SLOWLY ENE INTO THE
OZARKS OF NW AR BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND INCREASE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT INTO CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY
SOUTHEAST IL THROUGH FRI NIGHT. TROPICAL HUMIDITY AGAIN TODAY
WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
08Z/3AM RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. WITH MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
STORM BILL FLOWING NORTHEASTWARD AND A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO
THE NORTHWEST KILX CWA TODAY...THINK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. 06Z NAM INDICATES
FRONT WILL REACH A BLOOMINGTON TO RUSHVILLE LINE BY LATE
AFTERNOON...ESSENTIALLY ENDING ANY RAIN CHANCES TO THE NORTH.
FURTHER SOUTH...HIGHEST POPS APPEAR TO BE CONCENTRATED ON BOTH THE
NAM AND HRRR ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF A CHAMPAIGN TO SPRINGFIELD LINE.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE TRACK OF BILL AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF THE KILX
CWA. 00Z JUNE 18 MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT...SHOWING
A FURTHER SOUTH TRACK AND A MORE COMPACT AREA OF ASSOCIATED PRECIP.
MODEL CONSENSUS TAKES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA
THIS EVENING...TO THE OZARKS BY FRIDAY EVENING...THEN INTO SOUTHERN
INDIANA BY SATURDAY. GIVEN THIS PARTICULAR TRACK...THE SOUTHEAST
CWA WILL BE FAVORED FOR THE HEAVIEST RAIN FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. BASED ON MODEL TRENDS AND THE PRESENCE OF
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ON THE N/NW SIDE OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM...HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. HAVE FOCUSED LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70...WITH CHANCE POPS AS FAR NORTHWEST AS THE
ILLINOIS RIVER. FURTHER NORTHWEST...HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A DRY
FORECAST IN THE GALESBURG/LACON AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH
UNSEASONABLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES...ANY
STORMS THAT OCCUR DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY HIGH
RAINFALL RATES AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. EXPECTED RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 2 TO 2.50 RANGE SOUTH OF I-
70...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE LIKELY. DESPITE
EXPECTED HEAVY RAINFALL...OPTED NOT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT
THIS TIME...MAINLY DUE TO THE FACT THAT THIS AREA MISSED THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL FROM A COUPLE DAYS AGO. THERE ARE ALSO SOME SIGNS
THAT THE SYSTEM COULD TRACK EVEN FURTHER SOUTH...SHIFTING THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA.
ONCE BILL DEPARTS...LINGERING MORNING RAIN ACROSS THE E/SE WILL COME
TO AN END BY MIDDAY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE BOARD SATURDAY AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BRINGING RAIN
CHANCES BACK INTO THE PICTURE.
AFTER THAT...A VERY WARM AND OCCASIONALLY WET WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS
TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. AS WAS
FIRST SEEN WITH THE GFS LAST NIGHT...LATEST ECMWF NOW ADVERTISES A
WEAKER UPPER RIDGE NEXT WEEK...WHICH KEEPS THE PREVAILING BAROCLINIC
ZONE IN OR CLOSE TO THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. HAVE
INCLUDED LOW CHANCE POPS ACCORDINGLY. HAVE TEMPORARILY PUSHED POPS
NORTH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AS RIDGE BECOMES MOST
DOMINANT...BEFORE IT BREAKS DOWN AND FRONT SAGS BACK SOUTHWARD BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
A STRONG LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT RECENTLY MOVED THROUGH SPI AND
DEC WITH DEC HAVING WIND GUST OF 48 MPH AT 1716Z/1216 PM WILL LIFT
QUICKLY NE TOWARD CMI IN ABOUT AN HOUR. LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER HEART OF CENTRAL IL CWA WILL LIFT NE TOWARD PIA
AND BMI IN NEXT 1-2 HOURS AND BRING MVFR CEILINGS AND IFR TO MVFR
VSBYS WITH BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEAR THE IL RIVER WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL IL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND REACH NEAR I-70 BY 12Z/FRI. REMNANTS OF
FORMER TROPICAL STORM BILL OVER EASTERN OK WILL TRACK SLOWLY ENE
TOWARD THE MO/AR BORDER BY 18Z/1 PM FRI AND ITS MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING WILL OCCUR
SOUTH OF I-72 PER MOST FORECAST MODELS.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...BARNES
AVIATION...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
103 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
MADE SOME INITIAL ADJUSTMENTS FROM THE MORNING PACKAGE TO HANDLE
THE INITIAL WAVE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FAR OUTER
BANDS OF THE REMNANTS OF BILL MOVING FROM EASTERN OK TO NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE PRIMARY OUTER BAND OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI. THE MAJORITY OF WIDESPREAD, BUT RELATIVELY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION, WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER THE FOOTHILLS OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND ALONG THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR IN
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND WITH THE INSOLATION
(SUNSHINE) THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE REST OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND
WEST KENTUCKY.
THE NAM-WRF AND HRRR GUIDANCE APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON
THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
MAIN FOCUS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
AND FLASH FLOODING AS THE REMNANTS OF BILL PROGRESS INTO THE AREA
BY THE END OF THE WEEK. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE GIVEN
THE IMPROVED AGREEMENT AMONG FORECAST MODELS. HOWEVER...SOME
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST
RAIN WILL SET UP AND HOW MUCH WILL ULTIMATELY FALL.
LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING...THE REMNANTS
OF BILL ARE FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI BY
FRIDAY EVENING...THEN ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA ON
SATURDAY. AS THE LOW APPROACHES...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. THE MAIN SWATH OF RAIN
WILL SPREAD EAST TO ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...
THEN CONCENTRATE MORE ACROSS SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN
KENTUCKY BY SATURDAY.
AT THIS TIME...FORECAST STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION RANGES FROM 1
TO 3 INCHES SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO RIVER...UP TO 2 TO 4 INCHES
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. WITHIN
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...GROUND CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY MORE
SATURATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. MUCH
OF THIS REGION HAS RECEIVED 5 TO AS MUCH AS 10 INCHES OF RAIN
OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS...WITH JUST SHY OF HALF THAT AMOUNT
OCCURRING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
AS A RESULT...WE WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE
57...FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. FURTHER EAST INTO SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...AND WESTERN KENTUCKY...THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT RAINS ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THE 4TH AND 5TH PERIODS.
SOIL CONDITIONS IN THIS REGION ARE ALSO NOT QUITE AS SATURATED...
SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK IN THIS REGION. LATER
SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER EXPANDING THE WATCH FURTHER EAST WITH
TIME.
UNTIL FRIDAY...EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME AS ENERGY FROM THE EASTERN
REACHES OF BILL ACTS UPON A WARM TROPICAL AIR MASS TO SPARK
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALIZED
FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT WIDESPREAD
ISSUES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS ALSO
RATHER LIMITED...BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM...MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
LOOKS TOP BE RAINFREE AND SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE SRN PLAINS STATES. THE SRN EDGE OF THE H50 JET
STREAM WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...SO WILL LEAVE
SOME SMALL POPS IN THAT REGION SUN-TUE. AS THE MID LVL RIDGE SHIFTS
FARTHER EAST TOWARD MID WEEK...WILL LIKELY SEE POPS DWINDLE TO LESS
THAN 20 PERCENT AND TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID 90S. WITH SFC DEW POINTS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...COULD SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES 100-105
WED/THU AFTERNOONS.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
MAIN CHALLENGE WITH THE 18Z THURSDAY TAF FORECAST ISSUANCE IS
HANDLING THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS AND
ABOVE FOR MOST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH ROUGHLY 08Z FOR KPAH,
KEVV, AND KOWB, BUT DROPPING TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT KCGI WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL FROM BILL. WITH THE SETUP
OF A DIFFERENTIAL BOUNDARY NEAR KEVV, VISIBILITIES COULD DIP INTO
IFR CATEGORY AFTER 08Z, CLOSER TO 09-10Z FOR KOWB.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR ILZ075-080-081-084-085-088-089-092-093.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SMITH
SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...GM
AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
150 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1207 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
VIS SAT SHOWING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND CU BUILDING ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE JUST
BEGINNING TO POP UP ON RECENT SCANS OF THE WSR-88D RADAR.
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS HEATING
BUILDS AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED. ADJUSTED GRIDS TO LATEST
OBS AND TRENDS BUT OTHERWISE GRIDS ARE ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1000 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
LATEST SATELLITE AND OBS SUGGEST MUCH OF THE FOG SEEN THIS MORNING
HAS BURNT OFF. OTHERWISE MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING
ACROSS PORTION OF EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE THIS MORNING. CONVECTIVE
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY AFTER 17Z. GIVEN NO MAJOR
SYNOPTIC BOUNDARIES THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MUCH LIKE IT HAS BEEN
THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH MORE OF A INFLUENCE FROM MESOSCALE
FEATURES AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INPUT THE LATEST OBS INTO THE GRIDS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE NOT BEGUN TO DEVELOP YET THIS
MORNING DESPITE THE HRRR HINTING AT DEVELOPMENT BY 12Z. DECIDED TO
KEEP THE FORECAST AS IS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE AREA BY
LATE MORNING AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND A NEW ZFP WILL NOT BE NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE EASTERN KENTUCKY UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH ALONG THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS PUTS EAST KENTUCKY IN A VERY HOT AND MUGGY
TROPICAL AIRMASS. THIS SITUATION WILL MAKE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE
FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...A WAVE TRACKING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY WILL BEGIN TO PUSH A SURFACE COLD
FRONT INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY. THIS ADDED FORCING WILL ADD TO THE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A GREAT DEAL OF AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WITH A RATHER SLOW
STORM MOTION. HENCE WILL KEEP A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT THROUGH
TODAY AS WELL. WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS TO THE NORTH...ANY SEVERE
THREAT FOR TODAY WILL BE NORTH OF I-64 WITH A MARGINAL THREAT TO
THE SOUTH.
HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE MENTIONED COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH WILL
KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GOING INTO TONIGHT
MAINTAINING GOOD INSTABILITY. HEADING INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY...THE
REMNANTS OF BILL EDGE CLOSER TO THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY AS SOME
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BEGINS TO ENTER THE AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
AID SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN AN ALREADY MOISTURE
LADEN AND WARM AIRMASS. THE SHORT TERM PERIOD APPEARS TO FEATURE A
CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCTION AND RATHER SLOW STORM
MOTION. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A FLASH FLOOD THREAT IN THE HWO.
AS WELL...ANY SEVERE POSSIBILITY WILL BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY STRONG CELL THAT DEVELOPS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. LATEST MODEL TRENDS INDICATE A TRACK ALONG OR
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. THIS WOULD KEEP OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES IN THE ARC OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
CAN BE EXPECTED PRETTY MUCH ANYWHERE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LEFTOVER SURFACE
LOW TRACKS BY. CONSIDERING THE RECENT DRY SPELL AND THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM...WE CURRENTLY THINK THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IS LOW. HOWEVER...TRAINING STORMS WILL POSE
A THREAT FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.
AS BILL WEAKENS FURTHER AND SHIFTS TO OUR EAST ON SUNDAY...A NEW
FORECAST CHALLENGE AWAITS. A STOUT UPPER RIDGE WILL HAVE RELOCATED
TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY AND THIS
PLACES THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
FORECAST MODELS HAVE SHOWN AND CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG SIGNAL
FOR MCS ACTIVITY TO ORIGINATE SOMEWHERE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND/OR OHIO VALLEY AND TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA. THE TIMING
OF THESE COMPLEXES IS INHERENTLY DIFFICULT THIS FAR OUT...HOWEVER
A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...AND THIS WOULD INCLUDE
NOCTURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE PRIMARY THREAT AREA FOR THESE
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD.
FINALLY...NO RELIEF FROM THE VERY HUMID CONDITIONS IS IN SIGHT.
IN FACT...EVEN HOTTER TEMPERATURES THAN WE HAVE WITNESSED IN RECENT
DAYS ARE LIKELY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
BACK OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. OUR CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES HIGHS
SURGING INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S BY WEDNESDAY...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
CLIMBING TOWARDS 100.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH
BEST COVERAGE GENERALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES THIS HOUR.
THESE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MAINLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. RIGHT NOW WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE DID KEEP VCTS AT
MOST SITES...WHILE INTRODUCING TEMPO TS AT JKL. ONCE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT EXPECT FOG AND LOW CEILINGS TO SET IN PARTICULARLY IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS AND AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY FROM THE WEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS...HOWEVER HIGHER GUSTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE UNDER STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS ANY TAF
SITES.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...DJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1207 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1207 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
VIS SAT SHOWING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND CU BUILDING ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE JUST
BEGINNING TO POP UP ON RECENT SCANS OF THE WSR-88D RADAR.
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS HEATING
BUILDS AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED. ADJUSTED GRIDS TO LATEST
OBS AND TRENDS BUT OTHERWISE GRIDS ARE ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1000 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
LATEST SATELLITE AND OBS SUGGEST MUCH OF THE FOG SEEN THIS MORNING
HAS BURNT OFF. OTHERWISE MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING
ACROSS PORTION OF EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE THIS MORNING. CONVECTIVE
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY AFTER 17Z. GIVEN NO MAJOR
SYNOPTIC BOUNDARIES THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MUCH LIKE IT HAS BEEN
THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH MORE OF A INFLUENCE FROM MESOSCALE
FEATURES AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INPUT THE LATEST OBS INTO THE GRIDS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE NOT BEGUN TO DEVELOP YET THIS
MORNING DESPITE THE HRRR HINTING AT DEVELOPMENT BY 12Z. DECIDED TO
KEEP THE FORECAST AS IS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE AREA BY
LATE MORNING AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND A NEW ZFP WILL NOT BE NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE EASTERN KENTUCKY UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH ALONG THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS PUTS EAST KENTUCKY IN A VERY HOT AND MUGGY
TROPICAL AIRMASS. THIS SITUATION WILL MAKE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE
FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...A WAVE TRACKING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY WILL BEGIN TO PUSH A SURFACE COLD
FRONT INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY. THIS ADDED FORCING WILL ADD TO THE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A GREAT DEAL OF AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WITH A RATHER SLOW
STORM MOTION. HENCE WILL KEEP A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT THROUGH
TODAY AS WELL. WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS TO THE NORTH...ANY SEVERE
THREAT FOR TODAY WILL BE NORTH OF I-64 WITH A MARGINAL THREAT TO
THE SOUTH.
HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE MENTIONED COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH WILL
KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GOING INTO TONIGHT
MAINTAINING GOOD INSTABILITY. HEADING INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY...THE
REMNANTS OF BILL EDGE CLOSER TO THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY AS SOME
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BEGINS TO ENTER THE AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
AID SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN AN ALREADY MOISTURE
LADEN AND WARM AIRMASS. THE SHORT TERM PERIOD APPEARS TO FEATURE A
CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCTION AND RATHER SLOW STORM
MOTION. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A FLASH FLOOD THREAT IN THE HWO.
AS WELL...ANY SEVERE POSSIBILITY WILL BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY STRONG CELL THAT DEVELOPS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. LATEST MODEL TRENDS INDICATE A TRACK ALONG OR
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. THIS WOULD KEEP OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES IN THE ARC OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
CAN BE EXPECTED PRETTY MUCH ANYWHERE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LEFTOVER SURFACE
LOW TRACKS BY. CONSIDERING THE RECENT DRY SPELL AND THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM...WE CURRENTLY THINK THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IS LOW. HOWEVER...TRAINING STORMS WILL POSE
A THREAT FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.
AS BILL WEAKENS FURTHER AND SHIFTS TO OUR EAST ON SUNDAY...A NEW
FORECAST CHALLENGE AWAITS. A STOUT UPPER RIDGE WILL HAVE RELOCATED
TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY AND THIS
PLACES THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
FORECAST MODELS HAVE SHOWN AND CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG SIGNAL
FOR MCS ACTIVITY TO ORIGINATE SOMEWHERE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND/OR OHIO VALLEY AND TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA. THE TIMING
OF THESE COMPLEXES IS INHERENTLY DIFFICULT THIS FAR OUT...HOWEVER
A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...AND THIS WOULD INCLUDE
NOCTURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE PRIMARY THREAT AREA FOR THESE
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD.
FINALLY...NO RELIEF FROM THE VERY HUMID CONDITIONS IS IN SIGHT.
IN FACT...EVEN HOTTER TEMPERATURES THAN WE HAVE WITNESSED IN RECENT
DAYS ARE LIKELY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
BACK OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. OUR CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES HIGHS
SURGING INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S BY WEDNESDAY...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
CLIMBING TOWARDS 100.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
MOST AREAS THIS MORNING HAVE SOME REDUCTION IN VIS AND CIGS DUE TO
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA OVERNIGHT HAS HINDERED FOG DEVELOPMENT AT SOME OF THE TAF
SITES. ALL FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE KEPT VCTS AT THE TAF
SITES TO COVER FOR THIS. EXPECT FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN LATER
TONIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
125 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
.DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE LATE MORNING WORDING FROM ZONE FCST./VII/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1051 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015/
UPDATE...
TWEAK POPS/WX AND A FEW HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...
THE KSHV 88D IS SHOWING RAIN AREAS WINDING DOWN OVER THE LAST
HOUR WHICH IS TYPICAL WITH LOSS OF THE OVERNIGHT LOW LEVEL
FLOW...BUT WITH HEATING JUST ABOUT TO KICK IN GEAR WITH MORE AND
MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...COVERAGE MAY RAMP AGAIN INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS RUN THROUGH 1730Z AND
THE HEAVIER ELEMENTS ARE FADING AWAY WHICH IS GOOD NEWS AS
PREVIOUS RUN OFF FROM THIS MORNING IS ALREADY IMPROVED.
THERE ARE TWO NEW AREAS ALREADY GUSTING OUT A BIT INTO WARMER
AREAS FROM BROADDUS TO NEAR JOAQUIN IN TX AND FROM RED RIVER
MARINA SOUTH...TO NEAR MINDEN AND COTTON VALLEY IN LA. OTHER
STEAMERS OF SHOWERS ARE LINING UP ALONG I-30...BUT ARE NOT AS
MENACING RAINWISE. MEANWHILE...THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF BILL
ARE OVER SE OK NEAR MCALESTER AND POINTS JUST NORTH. LAST HOUR OBS
SHOWED A GUST TO 28 KTS AT IDABEL AND 27 KTS AT TEXARKANA LAST
HOUR...SO WE LEFT UP THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY. ONCE THE AFTERNOON
HEATING UNCERTAINTY IS REALIZED WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT IT IS LIKELY
THAT SOME OR EVEN PERHAPS MUCH OF THE FLOOD WATCH MAY BE CANCELLED
AND THE LAKE WIND ADV IF BILL LIFTS QUICKER TO THE NE...BOTH COULD
BE LET GO A LITTLE EARLY WITH THE NEXT ISSUANCE AT 4 PM.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015/
AVIATION...
SHWRS/TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE PD. LOW CIGS/VSBYS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VC OF ANY CONVECTION...BUT OTHERWISE...WE
SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS FROM ABOUT MID MORNING TODAY THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT SLY WINDS SUSTAINED AT AROUND 12-18
KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PD. /12/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THE REMNANTS OF BILL IS RIGHT OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF LAKE
TEXOMA WITH SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF TO OCCUR TODAY WITH WRAP AROUND
ACTIVITY STILL IN PROGRESS. THE LAKE LEVEL IS ONLY ABOUT A FOOT
FROM THE SPILLWAY AND ANOTHER CREST WILL BE DETERMINED AND WORKING
DOWN STREAM AS RELEASES MAY BE ENHANCED BY ANOTHER SPILL. BILL IS
SLOWLY MOVING NNE AT 10 MPH PER THE LATEST WPC ADVISORY. WINDS ARE
ONLY 25 MPH SUSTAINED...BUT EFFECTIVELY WRAPPING UP THE MOIST
TROPICAL CONNECTION THAT IS DRAPED AROUND OVER THE ARKLATEX INTO
THE COASTAL BEND. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT...BUT APPEAR TO LACK
FOCUS CONSIDERING THE RADAR TRENDS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
THE HRRR IS LOOKING GOOD TO START WITH RAPID REFRESH AND WEAKENS
THE CURRENT FOCUS AND REDEVELOPS LATER THIS MORNING FROM SOUTH OF
TYLER...TO NEAR TEXARKANA. EITHER WAY...HEATING WILL BE A PLAYER
AND EVEN THE HRRR MAY BE OFF AS CURRENT ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY GUST
OUT INTO THE WARMER AREAS. RECOVERY OF RAIN AREAS WILL BE MUCH
QUICKER THAN NORMAL WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LIKELY FOR ALMOST
ANYWHERE WITH MODEST CAPE IN THIS SUPER RICH TROPICAL CONNECTION
THAT IS FUNNELING IN OVER THE AREA.
THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS A DRY SLOT OF AIR THAT IS ESTABLISHED OVER
SE OK WHICH COULD BE A BACK EDGE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE
CIRCULATION SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD...BUT THE WRAP AROUND MAY KEEP
TO OUR NORTH. ALSO TO NOTE...IS A LARGE DRY AIR PUSH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF UNDER THE BERMUDA RIDGE WITH A RESULTING SHARP SHEAR
AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND UP TO NEAR MEMPHIS.
THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION WITH ALL THE HIGH WATER IS
PLACE...RECENT RAINFALL...WHAT IS ON RADAR NOW AND WHAT WILL
LIKELY BE DEVELOPING WITH EVEN LIMITED HEATING. THE FLOOD WATCH
HAS BEEN EXPANDED FOR THE ENTIRE FOUR STATE AREA UNTIL EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS COULD EVEN BE NEEDED BEYOND THAT TIME DEPENDING ON
PROGRESSION OF BILL AND THE TROPICAL CONNECTION LOCATIONS TOWARD
SUNDOWN. BILLS CORE WILL KEEP ACTIVITY TIGHT TONIGHT AND THEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE SHEAR AXIS TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA TO SOME
DEGREE OVERNIGHT. WE COULD SEE RAIN TOTALS TODAY AND OVERALL EVENT
TOTALS GIVE US A VERY WET MONTH DESPITE THE DRY START. THIS ALONG
WITH A VERY SWOLLEN SYSTEM OF LAKES...BAYOUS...RIVERS AND
BACKWATER INTO THE EARLY PART OF SUMMER. /24/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 84 75 90 75 / 80 30 30 10
MLU 87 75 91 74 / 60 20 30 10
DEQ 80 72 85 72 / 80 80 40 20
TXK 84 74 89 75 / 80 60 40 20
ELD 85 74 88 74 / 80 40 40 20
TYR 85 74 89 74 / 70 40 30 10
GGG 85 75 90 74 / 60 40 30 10
LFK 86 75 90 74 / 80 20 40 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
059>061-070>073.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
059-060-070.
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-
010>014-017>022.
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
108>112-124>126-136>138.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
426 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM
THE SW CONUS INTO ALBERTA/SASK AND A BROAD TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY
INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES RESULTING IN WNW FLOW TOWARD UPPER MI. AT
THE SFC...HIGH PRES FROM MANITOBA INTO THE NRN PLAINS WAS BUILDING
INTO THE AREA WITH NRLY WINDS AND DRY AIR ADVECTION THROUGH LAKE
SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI. VIS LOOP INDICATED THAT THE EXTENSIVE
STRATOCU OVER THE NORTH HAD RAPIDLY DISSIPATED...LEAVING CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE CWA.
TONIGHT...HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. WITH CLEAR
SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND PWATS DROPPING AOB
0.25 INCH...MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL OFF INTO THE 33 TO 36
RANGE OVER INLAND LOCATIONS. SO...PATCHY FROST WAS MENTIONED AND AN
SPS ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE COLD CONDITIONS. WITH HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASING LATE TONIGHT OR TOWARD DAYBREAK...PER MODELS 500-400 MB
RH...TEMPS MAY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVER THE WEST LATE.
FRI...SRLY WINDS DEVELOPING AS THE HIGH SLIPS OFF TO THE SE WILL
BRING A RETURN OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY. INCREASING
300K-310K MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LIFT MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS LATE
INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER UPPER MI WITH DRY WEATHER LINGERING.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
DURING THE LONG TERM...A LOW AMPLITUDE/PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE NRN CONUS/SRN CANADA TO THE N OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE THAT WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE SRN CONUS. HOWEVER...IN GENERAL...
THERE WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR WEAK TROFFING TO BECOME ESTABLISHED
FROM THE UPPER LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND. FOR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...
THIS MEANS FAIRLY FREQUENT OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN...THOUGH...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SAT...MOST WILL ONLY BE ISOLD/SCT COVERAGE OF SHRA.
TEMPS WILL LIKELY END UP CLOSE TO NORMAL OR A LITTLE BLO NORMAL OVER
THE NEXT 7 DAYS. LOOKING OUT FARTHER THRU LATE JUN AND INTO EARLY
JUL...CFSV2 MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THIS PATTERN MAY CONTINUE...RESULTING
IN PCPN AMOUNTS MORE LIKELY BEING NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL AND TEMPS
MORE LIKELY BEING NORMAL TO BLO NORMAL. EXTENDED PERIODS OF
HEAT/UNCOMFORTABLE HUMIDITY AND A LACK OF PCPN APPEAR UNLIKELY THRU
EARLY JUL.
OVER THE WEEKEND...A COMPLEX SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL STREAK ACROSS
THE NRN CONUS/SRN CANADA. MODELS REALLY DON`T SHOW ANY OF THE WAVES
STANDING OUT WHICH MAKES FOR A MORE CHALLENGING FCST WITH REGARD TO
PCPN...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE RANGE OF MODEL PCPN FCSTS IN RECENT
DAYS. THAT SAID...TODAYS 12Z MODEL RUNS AND THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS OF
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS HAVE CONSISTENTLY POINTED TOWARD SAT FOR THE
BEST POTENTIAL OF PCPN/COLD FRONT ARRIVAL. SO...FCST WILL CONTINUE
TO REFLECT HIGHEST POPS (LIKELY) ON SAT. PRIOR TO THAT...WITH LOW-
LEVEL JET/850MB THETA-E AXIS TRANSLATING E TOWARD UPPER MI FRI NIGHT
IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING WAVES...CHC POPS FOR SHRA/TSTM ARE
WARRANTED FOR THE W OVERNIGHT. PER RECENT MODEL TRENDS...SLOWED
ONSET OF PCPN CHANCES AND LIMITED MENTION TO JUST WRN UPPER MI.
DAYTIME HEATING AND ARRIVAL OF COLD FRONT SAT AFTN/EVENING WILL
BRING THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN. WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-
50KT...ORGANIZED STORMS AND SVR RISK WILL BE PRESENT IF SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS...BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE THE BIG UNKNOWN UNTIL
SAT MOVES INTO THE SHORT TERM. WITH THE 12Z MODEL RUNS...THE NAM
SHOWS ALMOST NO INSTABILITY SAT/SAT EVENING WHILE THE GFS SHOWS
MLCAPE INCREASING INTO THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER
ROUGHLY THE INTERIOR W HALF OF UPPER MI. SO AT THIS POINT...THE
CURRENT DAY3 SPC OUTLOOK APPEARS ON TRACK WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR
IN CNTRL/SRN WI WITH MRGL RISK RUNNING NEAR THE WI/MI BORDER AND
THRU MENOMINEE COUNTY. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.5 INCHES...
HVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS.
HEADING INTO SUN...THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER ANY TRAILING
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT...
PERHAPS GENERATING SOME LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE SHOWERS WITH DAYTIME
HEATING UNDER LIGHT WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES
MOVING INTO THE UPPER LAKES. WILL RETAIN FLAVOR OF INHERITED FCST
WITH NOTHING HIGHER THAN SCHC POPS...MAINLY IN THE INTERIOR CNTRL
AND E.
THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW/ZONAL FLOW REGIME NEXT WEEK IS PROBLEMATIC WITH
REGARD TO TIMING/STRENGTH/TRACK OF SHORTWAVES...TYPICAL FOR THIS
TYPE OF PATTERN IN THE WARM SEASON. THIS IS CERTAINLY EVIDENT WHEN
LOOKING AT THE RATHER SIGNIFICANT VARIABILITY OF FEATURES IN MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. AT THIS POINT...THERE ARE NO
INDICATIONS FOR A WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT PCPN EVENT IN THE MON THRU
THU TIME FRAME. WHEN PCPN DOES OCCUR IN UPPER MI...IT WILL LIKELY BE
SCT. FOR NOW...PLAN TO USE A SIMPLE CONSENSUS OF CURRENT AND RECENT
MODEL RUNS TO CONSTRUCT FCST. RESULT IS SCHC TO LOW CHC POPS ON MOST
DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN...EXPECT DRIER
AIR AND WINDS GUSTING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS...STRONGEST AT SAW. MVFR
CIGS AT SAW AND IWD WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO CLEARING BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NW...PER SATELLITE TRENDS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 4KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS UPPER MI 00-09Z...BEFORE SLOWLY
SHIFTING E.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. EACH ONE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS.
EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT/FRI MORNING AS HIGH PRES PASSES
OVER THE AREA. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES...S WINDS WILL INCREASE FRI AFTN THROUGH SAT MORNING.
WINDS MAY GUST TO 15-25KT FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING OVER CNTRL AND ERN
LAKE SUPERIOR. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SAT AFTN.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP OVER THE LAKE. SINCE THE HIGH PRES
FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL BE WEAK...WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...UNDER 20KT FOR LATE SAT THRU SUN. THE GRADUAL
ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH WILL DISSIPATE ANY
LINGERING FOG ON SUN. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL LINGER INTO TUE UNDER A
WEAK PRES GRADIENT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
243 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1105 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
...SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TODAY...
OVERVIEW: PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW ADVANCING
ACROSS ONTARIO INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES REGION. ATTENDING SFC LOW
ANALYZED ACROSS QUEBEC WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT STRETCHING DOWN
INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND ON INTO EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
STRONGEST SYNOPTIC FORCING IS OCCURRING ACROSS EASTERN
ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE. BUT WE ARE SEEING
A NICE NARROW AXIS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WHICH
HAS KICKED OFF A NARROW CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS IN EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. PER SPC MESO ANALYSIS...INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE REGION IS PALTRY. NONETHELESS...PLUME OF STEEPER MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING (SEEN ON APX 12Z
SOUNDING) APPARENTLY ENOUGH TO GET SOME THUNDER ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN.
REST OF TODAY...SFC COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN RATHER QUICKLY TODAY. GIVEN THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES
ALOFT AND SOME DECENT HEATING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN...I DO EXPECT TO SEE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP
DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN AS WE GO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
HAVE REVAMPED POPS/TIMING TO REFLECT THAT THINKING WITH CATEGORICAL
POPS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...TRANSLATING DOWN
THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON.
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...SEVERAL HOURS OF HEATING SHOULD BE ABLE TO
PUSH MLCAPE VALUES UP TO AROUND 500 J/KG ACROSS THE E/SE PART OF
THE CWA. NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT WITH AROUND 50 KNOTS OF
0-6KM SPEED SHEARS SITTING ACROSS THE REGION...COULD GET SOME
BETTER ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS AND STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. AGAIN...BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS
THE E/SE PART OF THE CWA BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z.
&&
.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED EAST OF MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING...AS A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER ONTARIO AND MINNESOTA
BEGINS TO MAKE A MOVE TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION. ONLY PRECIP
TO SPEAK OF ATTM REMAINS UPSTREAM OF OUR CWA OVER UPPER MICHIGAN PER
KMQT BASE REF IMAGES...DEVELOPING WITHIN AN AREA OF ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LACK OF INSTABILITY HAS
PRECLUDED ANY THUNDER WITHIN THIS BKN LINE OF SHOWERS. PRIMARY
FORECASTS CONCERN FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT ARE POPS AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDER AS THIS FRONT MOVES THRU OUR CWA.
BOTH THE NAM AND THE RAP DEVELOP A WEAK WAVE OVER WISCONSIN THIS
MORNING ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...PULLING ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS A WEAK
INSTABILITY AXIS PUSHES NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN
TODAY. MUCAPES INCREASE TO AROUND 750 TO 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS SE SECTIONS OF OUR CWA...MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM APN TO
HTL. THIS IS WHERE OUR GREATEST POPS AND BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER
WILL RESIDE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THANKS TO
FROPA DURING MAX DIURNAL HEATING/INSTABILITY. ALSO...SOME DESCENT
SPEED SHEAR WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THIS AREA BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...FURTHER SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER
DEVELOPMENT. LATEST SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS OUR SE CWA FOR A
MARGINAL CHANCE OF SVR STORMS...WHICH IS REASONABLE GIVEN THE ABOVE
SCENARIO.
HAVE MADE SOME MINOR UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND EXTENDED POPS
INTO THE EVENING HOURS BASED ON LATEST FROPA PROJECTIONS. HAVE ALSO
INCREASED CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR OUR SE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LOW LEVEL CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL LEND TO A LARGER
SPREAD OF TEMPS TODAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
60S IN ERN UPR MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 70S IN OUR FAR SE CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: FAST MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
REGIME SHOWING NO SIGNS OF SLOWING DOWN ANYTIME IN THE NEAR
FUTURE...WITH NORTHERN MICHIGAN SQUARELY CENTERED BETWEEN BROAD
SOUTHERN RIDGING AND DEEP TROUGHING ROTATING AROUND THE CANADIAN
ARCTIC. FAST MOVING...HARD TO TIME...WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE
OVERHEAD...ALTHOUGH STILL APPEARS DISCONNECT WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN
THEM AND MUCH DEEPER INSTABILITY/MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE NORTHERN
OHIO VALLEY. WHILE THIS MAY PREVENT A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL FOR
OUR NECK OF THE WOODS...PASSING WAVES WORKING ON A MODESTLY MOST
ENVIRONMENT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES AS WE HEAD INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THIS WEEKEND.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: ADDRESSING SATURDAY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
DETAILS: WORK WEEK ENDS ON A QUIET NOTE AS HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS
CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER...DESPITE SLOWLY PASSING OFF TO THE EAST. ALL
STRONG WAA WILL REMAIN CENTERED WELL TO OUR WEST...WITH PERHAPS JUST
SOME HINTS OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN VIA SLOWLY INCREASING
CIRRUS. VERY COOL EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND NICELY TO
THE SUNSHINE...BUT SHOULD STILL END UP A LEAST A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT ALL DEEPER MOISTURE AND
SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL BE REMOVED WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST
(THE LATTER TIED TO REMNANTS OF WHAT WAS ONCE TROPICAL STORM BILL).
SLOWER IS DEFINITELY THE TREND WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT WAVE
AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SATURDAY...LIKELY A RESULT OF THE
PROXIMITY OF "BILL" PASSING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. WHAT MID LEVEL
SUPPORT DOES ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY WILL BE IN WEAKENING
MODE...ALTHOUGH NICE SURGE OF THETA-E ADVECTION AND SOME RER UPPER
JET SUPPORT MAY COMPENSATE SOME. MAIN CHANCES FOR SHOWER/EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL NOW LOOKS TO ARRIVE THE SECOND HALF OF
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING WHEN ABOVE FORCING INTERACTS WITH
FAVORED DIURNAL INSTABILITY TRENDS. HOWEVER...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT SOME MORNING ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER ALONG SURGE OF
STRONGER MOISTURE ADVECTION TIED TO PASSING LOW LEVEL JET. MUCH LIKE
THE PAST SEVERAL SIMILAR EVENTS...ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH IN VICINITY OF MUCH BETTER
INSTABILITY.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE EXTENDED RANGE...ESPECIALLY
WITH REGARDS TO ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES. JUST REALLY IMPOSSIBLE
TO GET A GOOD FEEL ON SHOWER POTENTIAL SUNDAY INTO THE START OF
NEXT WORK WEEK...WITH YET TO BE SEEN FAST MOVING WAVES IN OVERHEAD
AGGRESSIVE FLOW AT LEAST OFFERING SOME SHOWER POTENTIAL AT TIMES.
PER THE USUAL IN SUCH A PATTERN...THIS FORECAST WILL APPEAR MUCH
WETTER THAN WHAT WILL LIKELY ACTUALLY OCCUR...SIMPLY AN
UNFORTUNATE PRODUCT OF TIMING UNCERTAINTY. NOW...AS PREVIOUS
FORECASTER MENTIONED...LATEST HIGHER RES GUIDANCE PROGS HAVE
INCREASINGLY ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR BUILDING CENTRAL PLAINS HEAT
DOME/RIDGING HEADING INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ALL-THE-WHILE
TROUGHING RESIDES OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS. ABOVE IS A PRIME
PATTERN FOR PERIODIC RIDGE RIDING MCS`S (SO CALLED RING OF FIRE)
TO PIVOT SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. SIMPLY TOO EARLY TO SAY
WITH ANY CONFIDENCE WHERE THE BEST CORRIDOR WILL ALIGN ITSELF.
WILL SAY IF CURRENT TRENDS HOLD...MOST IMPRESSIVE CORRIDOR OF HEAT
AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH...PLACING
THE MOST ACTIVE TEMP/INSTABILITY GRADIENT JUST OFF TO OUR
SOUTHWEST. ONLY TIME WILL TELL...OF COURSE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 243 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
COLD FRONT NOW SLICING DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN AND HAS
CLEARED THE TERMINAL SITES AT THIS POINT. SMALL CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING THROUGH NE LOWER MICHIGAN ALONG AND SOUTH
OF M-72. BUT AT THIS POINT...APPEARS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AT THE
TERMINAL SITES HAS DIMINISHED...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN
POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE...A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CIGS OUT THERE AND THERE MAY BE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS
COOLER AIR SLIPS INTO THE REGION. CLEARING OUT TONIGHT AND A
RETURN TO VFR HEADING INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
WINDS AND WAVES WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AND STRENGTHEN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...BUT AT THIS POINT...BOTH
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND
THUNDER ACROSS NE LWR MICHIGAN AND THUS THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE
AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT...WITH DRY WEATHER AND DIMINISHING WINDS/WAVES EXPECTED
LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ADAM
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...MLR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1258 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
THE SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE THE CHANCE AND COVERAGE OF POSSIBLE
CONVECTION ALONG SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPPING OVER THE AREA
TODAY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FAST WEST FLOW ALOFT. THE NORTHERN EXTENSION DEVELOPED SOME
SHOWERS/THUNDER OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTAS AND IS NOW WEAKENING.
THE OTHER A DECENT SIZED MCS TRAVELING ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND
DROPPING INTO NEBRASKA. A LOT OF CIRRUS DEBRIS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
IT MOVES SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. THE NORTHERN SYSTEM IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT AND IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH DURING THE LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON. VARIOUS MODELS SUGGEST INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND WITH LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE WITH THE
FRONT...MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION
AS IT DROPS SOUTH DURING THE MAX HEATING OF THE DAY. VARIOUS
HIRES MODELS AND THE HRRR IS NOW TRYING TO DEVELOP ISOLATED
CONVECTION WITH THE BOUNDARY. IT APPEARS AS THE WAVE MOVES FARTHER
EAST THE UPPER JET STREAK TRANSLATES FARTHER EAST...THE BETTER
FORCING FROM IT IS GENERATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN CWA. MAIN
QUESTION WAS HOW FAR WEST WITH THE SMALL POP TO GO. THE NAM AND
HIRES NMM WERE THE STRONGEST WITH DEVELOPMENT/INSTABILITY...BUT THE
GFS STILL MANAGED TO DROP SOME QPF INTO WESTERN WI. WILL HOLD SMALL
POP TO THE EAST METRO INTO WESTERN WI FOR NOW.
SHOULD SEE DIURNAL NATURE TO ANY DEVELOPMENT AND SHOULD DIE OFF
QUICKLY THIS EVENING. CLEARING WITH MORE CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM MORE
DAKOTAS ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT. KEPT IT DRY FOR NOW...BUT WILL HAVE
TO WATCH DAKOTAS SYSTEM FOR ANY VARIABLE SHIFTING OF COMPLEX
OVERNIGHT. IT COULD AFFECT THE FAR WEST BEFORE DAYBREAK.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
A ZONAL FLOW REGIME PERSISTS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK...WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES FOSTERING MULTIPLE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SAID PATTERN WILL
ALSO BE CONDUCIVE TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S.
AT DAYBREAK FRIDAY...EXPECT ELEVATED CONVECTION TO BE ONGOING OVER
THE DAKOTAS...GENERATED BY ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A WARM FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EASTWARD
DURING THE DAY AS THE FIRST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVES
ARRIVES...BUT THE BULK LOOKS TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AS A CAP BUILDS IN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WILL LIKELY SEE A
BREAK IN STORMS UNTIL WE CAN TAP INTO THE BUILDING INSTABILITY.
THE AFTERNOON ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE
COLD FRONT TO THE WEST OVER THE DAKOTAS...AND THEN CONGEAL INTO A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THIS
HAPPENS...THERE LOOKS TO BE A POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN
THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR FORECAST. THIS THREAT APPEARS TO LIE BETWEEN 06Z
AND 18Z SATURDAY...WITH RESIDUAL ACTIVITY IN WI SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING A LULL IN THE STORMS...BUT THEN MORE
WEAK EMBEDDED ENERGY ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IN
THE TIMING OF THESE TYPES OF WAVES IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW IS OF
COURSE LOW...SO HAVE HELD ON TO 20-30 POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRING SLIGHTLY MORE TO FOCUS ON...AS A
BAROCLINIC ZONE LIFTS TOWARD THE AREA. HOWEVER...18.00Z GFS AND
ECMWF SOLUTIONS SHOW VASTLY DIFFERENT TIMING/PLACEMENT SCENARIOS.
HAVE THEREFORE INCLUDED 30-40 POPS AT THIS POINT UNTIL
DIFFERENCES RESOLVE SOMEWHAT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
A RATHER EXTENSIVE VFR CU FIELD WILL COVER MOST OF THE TAF SITES
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF KEAU WITH LESSER CHANCES
HEADING WEST. NORTHERLY WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
THIS EVENING WHILE VEERING TO THE SE BY FRIDAY MORNING.
KMSP...FEW CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. SOUTHERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BECOME GUSTY IN THE
AFTERNOON...REACHING UP TO 22 KNOTS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI NITE...MAINLY VFR WITH OCNL PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR IN SHRA/TSRA
LATE. WINDS SE 10-15 KT.
SAT...MAINLY VFR WITH OCNL PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR IN SHRA/TSRA.
WINDS SSW 10-15 KT BECOMING NW IN AFTERNOON.
SUN...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHC OF MVFR SHRA/TSRA. N WINDS 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
355 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2015
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...
CURRENT FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK ON TRACK WITH SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS A GOOD POSSIBILITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING HOURS AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OUT TOWARD THE
DAKOTA BORDERS. WEAK RIDGING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA WILL
FLATTEN WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS AS A SHORTWAVE OVER IDAHO MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. AN EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW COMBINED WITH LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE FAR EAST HAS KEPT TEMPEATURES IN THE LOWER 60S SO FAR
TODAY. SATELLITE IS SHOWING AREAS OF SUN ACROSS OUR CENTRAL ZONES
WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. CURRENTLY
BEST CAPES ARE WHERE THERE HAS BEEN SUN. EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS
AND CLOUDS ARE KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE CAPPED AND SOUNDINGS CONCUR
WITH THIS. HOWEVER...AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND MOVES OVER
OUR AREA THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO BREAK BY LATE AFTERNOON.
MAJORITY OF THE ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW STORMS FIRING WEST OF
BILLINGS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND MOVING EAST INTO THE BILLINGS AREA
BY 7 OR 8 PM. HOWEVER...SOME MODELS TAKE THE STORMS JUST NORTH AND
SOUTH OF BILLINGS SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON EXACT LOCATIONS OF
STORM DEVELOPMENT. ALL PARAMETERS POINT TO THE POSSIBILITY OF ANY
STORM CONTAINING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. MODELS THEN SHOW
INDIVIDUAL STORMS FORMING MORE OF A COMPLEX OF STORMS JUST EAST OF
BILLINGS BY MID EVENING. LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN IS NOW SHOWING A
COUPLE SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN
ROSEBUD...POWDER RIVER AND CARTER COUNTIES. ALL THE MODELS AGREE
ON MERGING THE STORMS INTO AN MCS LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY FOR OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. WE REMAIN
CONCERNED WITH THE CURRENT CAP BUT WE STILL BELIEVE IT WILL BREAK
IN PLACES.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE ACTUALLY SHOWS FRIDAY TO HAVE BETTER
CHANCES FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM EVENT THAN TODAY.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST AS TONIGHTS STORMS MAY PLACE A
ROLE IN HOW THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REACT FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
HIGHLIGHTING AREAS FROM BILLINGS EASTWARD WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
A DAMAGING WIND EVENT.
THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING TO BE LESS ACTIVE AS A MORE STABLE AIRMASS
WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. HOOLEY
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...
A FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WHILE THE ENSEMBLES WERE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
OVER THE UPCOMING PATTERN...THERE WERE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
DETAILS OF THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF.
SUN AND SUN NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE AREA AS RIDGING
MOVES OVER THE AREA. SOME ENERGY AND MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH THE
FLOW MON AND MON NIGHT BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. MODELS DISAGREED ON THE PROGRESSION
OF A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TUE AND TUE NIGHT SO LEFT INHERITED POPS
ACROSS THE AREA ALONE. DIFFERENCES CONTINUED THROUGH WED NIGHT
DUE TO THE PACIFIC WAVE...SO AGAIN MADE NO CHANGES. THE GFS SHOWED
HIGH CAPES OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA TUE
AFTERNOON THROUGH WED...AND BULK SHEAR WAS STRONG AS WELL. THE GFS
WAS STRONGER WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAN THE ECMWF...SO IF THE GFS
VERIFIES...THERE WILL BE POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TUE
AFTERNOON THROUGH WED. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THU. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL REACH INTO THE 80S WHICH IS A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. ARTHUR
&&
.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE KLVM AREA AFTER 21Z AND
SPREAD E INTO THE KBIL AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z. THE STORMS WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AND WILL CONTAIN STRONG
GUSTY WINDS...POSSIBLE LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THE STORMS
WILL SPREAD E...AFFECTING THE KMLS AND KSHR AREAS BETWEEN 03Z AND
07Z WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLE HAIL.
THE STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY 12Z FRI. EXPECT AREAS OF
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE AREA AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL. EXPECT
AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. ARTHUR
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 061/084 056/081 056/080 055/084 058/083 059/082 059/085
33/T 22/T 21/B 12/T 22/T 33/T 32/T
LVM 054/083 047/079 048/081 050/083 051/083 051/081 050/085
34/T 22/T 21/B 22/T 23/T 33/T 32/T
HDN 060/087 056/082 055/081 056/086 057/085 058/084 059/086
33/T 42/T 21/B 11/B 12/T 33/T 32/T
MLS 061/086 057/081 055/080 055/081 058/082 060/081 057/082
63/T 41/B 22/W 12/T 22/T 33/T 32/T
4BQ 061/086 056/080 056/081 056/083 059/082 059/081 057/082
63/T 61/B 22/W 22/T 22/T 33/T 32/T
BHK 060/084 055/080 053/078 053/077 056/078 058/078 054/078
63/T 61/U 22/T 22/T 22/T 44/T 32/T
SHR 056/084 052/077 052/078 053/084 055/083 055/080 054/082
23/T 52/T 21/B 11/B 12/T 32/T 22/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
359 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
REMNANTS OF MCS THAT ROLED THRU NEBR THIS MORNING NOW OBSCURED BY
THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE FORMER TS BILL IN ERN
OK. STRATUS LEFT BEHIND HAS REMAINED ACROSS MUCH OF WRN AND NC
NEBR AND HAS LIMITED INSOLATION TODAY. LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW ALSO
KEEPING MOISTURE IN PLACE. FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT PV ANOMALY MOVING
ACROSS THE PAC NW...WITH POSSIBLY A MORE SUBTLE WAVE MOVING
ACROSS NRN WY. UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE SWRN U.S. AND INTO
THE ROCKIES AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
AS MENTIONED...STRATUS LINGERED MUCH LONGER THAN ORIGINALLY
ANTICIPATED WHICH HAS LIMITED INSOLATION AND WITH PAIRED WITH
LIGHT ERLY FLOW...TEMPS HAVE STRUGGLED ACCORDINGLY. MORNING RAOB
INDICATED 1.22 INCHES OF PW WHICH IS AT AROUND THE 90TH
PERCENTILE FOR THIS DATE...THO PARTLY AFFECTED BY MORNING
CONVECTION. STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE AS ARE BOUNDARIES
FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION. WHAT IS LACKING CURRENTLY IN THE AREA
IS LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT NEEDED TO FOCUS CONVERGENCE
ALONG ANY OF THE BOUNDARIES REMAINING. SUBTLE PV ANOMALY MOVING
ACROSS NRN WY IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS
CLOSER TO LARGER SCALE SFC BOUNDARY THAT STRETCHED INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS OF WY/MT...AS A RESULT OF HIGH SETTLING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING AS HEIGHTS FALL IN THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES. THE RESULTANT MCS DEVELOPED BY THE MODELS PROPAGATES
SEWD OVERNIGHT ACROSS SD AND MAY APPROACH NRN ZONES BY 12Z.
FURTHER SOUTH...LLJ DEVELOPS HELPING MCS PROP SEWD BY WILL ALSO
COMBINE WITH LL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE STRATUS ONCE AGAIN. SOME HINT
ALSO OF FOG BUT CONFIDENCE LOW ON ACTUAL VSBY RESTRICTION AND
LEANING MORE TWD STRATUS DEVELOPMENT...SO NO MENTION OF FOG IN
THE GRIDS AT THIS POINT BUT WILL MONITOR THIS. HAVE LEFT SOME
SLIGHT POPS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE WEST FOR EVENING
CONVECTION AND ALSO OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH PREVIOUS MENTION OF
MCS DEVELOPMENT FURTHER N...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP IS LOW.
ASSUMING STRATUS BURNS OFF QUICKER TMRW BETTER INSOLATION AND
INCREASING LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING RIDGE
IN THE WEST SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH ABOVE AVE. LEE TROUGH
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WILL ALSO ALLOW SRLY WINDS TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. SHOULD BRING A SLIGHT COOL DOWN...HOWEVER UNSURE HOW
MUCH THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH 700 MB TEMPS AT 15 TO 16 C WHICH IS A STRONG CAP.
COOLER TEMPS ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE WILL COMBINE
WITH A RIDGE RUNNING SHORT WAVE TO SPARK A MCS. THIS COULD CLIP
NORTHERN NEB...OTHERWISE MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
SATURDAY RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SLIGHTLY AND ANOTHER MCS IS EXPECTED.
MODELS ARE FURTHER SOUTH THIS TIME AND WILL SEE A BETTER SHOT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.
RIDGE REDEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A RISE IN
TEMPERATURES AND WILL LIKELY PUSH MOST IF NOT ALL THE STORM
ACTIVITY INTO THE DAKOTAS. WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS NEAR THE
BORDER. MEANWHILE TEMPS SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.
MODELS BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE TOWARDS THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK. OCCASIONALLY THE MODELS ARE TOO QUICK TO BREAK DOWN THE
RIDGE SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR AS THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS MAY
NEED TO BE DELAYED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
DIFFICULT FCST FOR CIGS/VSBY AS MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH
IDENTIFYING AREAS OF LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD OUTFLOW
FROM OVERNIGHT MCS. RAP HAS A DECENT IDEA NOW AND DOES KEEP LOW
CLOUDS IN THE KLBF AND KVTN TAF AREAS THROUGH THE DAY. TYPICALLY
IN UPSLOPE REGIMES DURING SUMMERS WITH ABOVE AVE PRECIP LOW
CLOUDS WILL LINGER LONGER INTO THE AFTERNOON THAN MODELS
SUGGEST...ESPECIALLY IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY. HAVE SIDED WITH
THE IDEA THAT THESE LOW CLOUDS MAY GO BKN FOR A TIME...BUT WILL
LIKELY RETURN OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS SOME REDUCTIONS IN VSBY SINCE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOT SCOURED OUT IN LIGHT WIND SCENARIOS.
THEREFORE TAFS FAVOR IFR CONDITIONS THOUGH THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
VSBYS TO GO BELOW IFR AFTER 10Z OR SO AT KLBF...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
BELOW AVE FOR TIMING AND DEGREE OF VSBY REDUCTION.
HAVE REMOVED TSRA MENTION AT EACH SITE DUE TO A LACK OF
CONFIDENCE IN BOUNDARY LOCATIONS AND UPPER FORCING SUFFICIENT TO
ALLOW CONVERGENCE TO INCREASE ALONG ANY BOUNDARY TO GET CI.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JWS
SHORT TERM...JWS
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...JWS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1239 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
UPDATED FORECAST TO DEPICT PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD TRENDS. FCST
CHALLENGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY IS TO DETERMINE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. MODELS HAVE NOT DONE WELL DEPICTING THUNDERSTORM
REDEVELOPMENT LOCATION OR TIMING IN THE LAST FEW DAYS LEADING TO
LOW CONFIDENCE IN FCST. INTERROGATION OF SFC FEATURES WILL BE
CRITICAL TO THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TODAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 501 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
UPDATED FORECAST TO DROP SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
AFTER THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY...THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE INTO WEST CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL FROM
THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION...AND SHOULD BE LOCATED NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST FROM THE PANHANDLE INTO FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA OR
NORTHEAST COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK PERTURBATION ALOFT WILL BE
CROSSING NORTHERN WYOMING MIDDAY...AND EMERGE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
BY LATE AFTERNOON. BACKED SOUTHEAST TO EAST SURFACE WINDS WILL
RESIDE EAST OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. EXPECT THE SOUTHEAST WINDS TO CONTINUE TO DRAW LOW
LEVEL GULF MOISTURE NORTHWEST INTO THE AREA...WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN
THE 60S. THE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE 80S ALONG
WITH MODESTLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND CREATE VERY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON. SFC BASED CAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 3000
TO 4000 J/KG WILL COMBINE WITH AROUND 45 KTS OF BULK SHEAR...AND
CREATE CONDITIONS THAT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO BE A POSSIBLE INITIATION POINT FOR STORMS BY
MID AFTERNOON. OTHER STORMS COULD MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TO THE WEST. STORMS COULD ONCE AGAIN GROW UPSCALE INTO
ANOTHER MCS TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
HEIGHTS RISE FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO EXPANDING UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A STOUT CAPPING INVERSION
DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION AS WELL...WITH VERY WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE. WITH THAT SAID...CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY
UNSTABLE AS STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERSPREAD THE AREA. SHEAR
WOULD ALSO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS...BUT WITH LITTLE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND A STOUT CAP IN PLACE CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN DRY DURING THE DAY. FRIDAY NIGHT THUNDERSTORMS MAY SKIRT
NORTHERN NEBRASKA AS AN MCS TAKES SHAPE ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA ON EDGE
OF CAP. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE QUITE WARM...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S AND 90S. FAIRLY HUMID AS WELL...AS GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE
ADVECTED NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA.
A SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL SKIRT EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO NEBRASKA
SATURDAY...ALONG WITH WEAKENING THE CAPPING INVERSION SLIGHTLY. THE
FRONT WILL STALL SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA OR NORTHERN
KANSAS...THEN BEGIN MOVING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY. WILL
CONTINUE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS WITH THE BOUNDARY IN
THE AREA.
EARLY NEXT WEEK HEIGHTS BUILD ONCE AGAIN AS RIDGE ALOFT EXPANDS
ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM
WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE FOR STORMS AT BEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
DIFFICULT FCST FOR CIGS/VSBY AS MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH
IDENTIFYING AREAS OF LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD OUTFLOW
FROM OVERNIGHT MCS. RAP HAS A DECENT IDEA NOW AND DOES KEEP LOW
CLOUDS IN THE KLBF AND KVTN TAF AREAS THROUGH THE DAY. TYPICALLY
IN UPSLOPE REGIMES DURING SUMMERS WITH ABOVE AVE PRECIP LOW CLOUDS
WILL LINGER LONGER INTO THE AFTERNOON THAN MODELS
SUGGEST...ESPECIALLY IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY. HAVE SIDED WITH
THE IDEA THAT THESE LOW CLOUDS MAY GO BKN FOR A TIME...BUT WILL
LIKELY RETURN OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS SOME REDUCTIONS IN VSBY SINCE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOT SCOURED OUT IN LIGHT WIND SCENARIOS.
THEREFORE TAFS FAVOR IFR CONDITIONS THOUGH THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
VSBYS TO GO BELOW IFR AFTER 10Z OR SO AT KLBF...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
BELOW AVE FOR TIMING AND DEGREE OF VSBY REDUCTION.
HAVE REMOVED TSRA MENTION AT EACH SITE DUE TO A LACK OF CONFIDENCE
IN BOUNDARY LOCATIONS AND UPPER FORCING SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW
CONVERGENCE TO INCREASE ALONG ANY BOUNDARY TO GET CI.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JWS
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...JWS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
248 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HOT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SPREADING OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES
WILL KEEP NORTHERN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS STALLED OUT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO NEXT WEEK. EXPECT PERIODS
OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR IN THIS PATTERN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ON RADAR...FEW HAVE ANY LIGHTING
STRIKES BUT EXPECT THAT TO CHANGE FOR REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HRRR RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOWER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH TD VALUES IN
THE LOWER 70S IN SPOTS EXPECTED SOME LOCALLY HEAVY SHORT LIVED
DOWNPOURS. FRONT ARRIVES LATER THIS EVENING WITH A SCATTERED LINE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS WILL BE DRIER AIR AS THE
SURFACE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH WITH DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO CWA FRIDAY. FRONT WILL NOT BE
TOO FAR SOUTH OF PA/MD BORDER AND AN ISOLATED SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE
THERE. COOL NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN
THE 50S FOR A LARGE PART OF THE AREA AND EVEN SOME 40S IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRES RIDGE FROM NEW ENGLAND DOWN THROUGH NY AND PA. REMNANTS
OF BILL MOVING INTO OHIO WITH A WARM FRONT SPREADING
PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTHWEST PA. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING IN
ADVANCE OF THIS INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING
INTO WESTERN PA AND SPREADING EAST. FORECAST HAS THE CENTER OF
WHAT WILL BE LEFT OF BILL MOVING EAST ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE
AND THEN OFF THE EAST COAST BY SUNDAY EVENING. A WIDESPREAD ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE WITH LESS TO THE NORTH OF HERE. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AND SO THIS IS
STILL A CONCERN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE
RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL FOR DROUGHT RELIEF. THE MAIN CONCERN
REMAINS FOR POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED FLOODING IF THUNDERSTORMS
REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS.
CLOUDS AND HUMIDITY WILL LINGER BEHIND UNTIL THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. UPR LEVEL RIDGE SETS UP
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH NW FLOW ACROSS PA BEGINNING MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. MODEL UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FOR MID WEEK ON TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE NEXT SYSTEMS. GENERALLY LOOKING AT A VIGOROUS LOW
PRESSURE CENTER MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO PA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING SPREADING MORE SHOWERS ACROSS THE STATE. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH WITH WEATHER CLEARING BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY BRINGING
COOLER NIGHTS AND DRIER WEATHER. BUT THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES
WITH THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHING SW PA WITH A WARM FRONT AND SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCT CONVECTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR TO IFR
CHANCES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING...ESPECIALLY BFD AND JST AND ARES THAT RECEIVE ANY
PRECIPITATION. VFR SHOULD DOMINATE THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...BCMG VFR.
SAT-MON...VFR/MVFR WITH PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA. LOCALLY +RA PSBL SAT
NGT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROSS
NEAR TERM...ROSS
SHORT TERM...ROSS
LONG TERM...WATSON
AVIATION...ROSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
223 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HOT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SPREADING OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES
WILL KEEP NORTHERN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS STALLED OUT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO NEXT WEEK. EXPECT PERIODS
OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR IN THIS PATTERN WITH AN
ENHANCED RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN ON SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF BILL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOTS OF SHORT LIVED LIGHT SHOWERS ON RADAR THIS MORNING. HRRR RUNS
SUPPORT SCT CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND SPC HAS THE AREA IN THE
SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY. MAIN SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE ISOLATED HIGH
WINDS IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALSO
POSSIBLE...THOUGH QPF IS RELATIVELY LIGHT GIVEN THE SHORT DURATION
OF THE RAINFALL.
A STRONG S/WV TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS SERN CANADA AND SEND A SFC
COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL PA AFTER 00Z FRI. EXPECT SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY WITH THE FRONT ALTHOUGH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
SUGGESTS A LOWERING INTENSITY/COVERAGE OF PCPN. DRIER AIR SHOULD
WORK INTO NWRN AND NCENTRAL PA INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AS THE SFC
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE PA/MD LINE BY 12Z FRI.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY IS LOOKING MAINLY DRY OVERALL AS DECENT SFC HIGH BUILDS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND DIRECTS DRIER/LOWER HUMIDITY AIR INTO
THE REGION BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. HOWEVER STILL
CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM OVER FAR SOUTHERN PA WHERE PWS
REMAIN MODESTLY HIGH AND MODELS SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY. A COOLER
AND LESS HUMID NIGHT LOOKS IN STORE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH
OVERNIGHT READINGS POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S OVER THE
NCENTRAL MTNS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES RIDGE FROM NEW ENGLAND DOWN THROUGH NY AND PA. REMNANTS
OF BILL MOVING INTO OHIO WITH A WARMM FRONT SPREADING
PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTHWEST PA. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING IN
ADVANCE OF THIS INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING
INTO WESTERN PA AND SPREADING EAST. FORECAST HAS THE CENTER OF
WHAT WILL BE LEFT OF BILL MOVING EAST ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE
AND THEN OFF THE EAST COAST BY SUNDAY EVENING. A WIDESPREAD ONE
TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE WITH LESS TO THE NORTH OF HERE. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AND SO THIS IS
STILL A CONCERN SATUDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE
RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL FOR DROUGHT RELIEF. THE MAIN CONCERN
REMAINS FOR POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED FLOODING IF THUNDERSTORMS
REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS.
CLOUDS AND HUMIDITY WILL LINGER BEHIND UNTIL THE COLD FRONT SWEPTS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. UPR LEVEL RIDGE SETS UP
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH NW FLOW ACROSS PA BEGINNING MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. MODEL UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FOR MID WEEK ON TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE NEXT SYSTEMS. GENERALLY LOOKING AT A VIGOROUS LOW
PRESSURE CENTER MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO PA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING SPREADING MORE SHOWERS ACROSS THE STATE. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH WITH WEATHER CLEARING BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY BRINGING
COOLER NIGHTS AND DRIER WEATHER. BUT THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES
WITH THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHING SW PA WITH A WARM FRONT AND SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST RADAR SHOWS A PRECIPITATION BAND CONTINUING TO MOVE THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST...AFFECTING MDT AND LNS. AS THIS WEAK PRECIPITATION
MOVES EASTWARD...STRONGER BANDS OF LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE MOVING
INTO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 14Z TO 16Z. THE LOW CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING BEFORE LIFTING FOR ALL TAF
SITES BETWEEN 16Z TO 18Z.
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
MVFR TO IFR CHANCES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING...ESPECIALLY BFD AND JST AND ARES THAT RECEIVE
ANY PRECIPITATION. VFR SHOULD DOMINATE THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...BCMG VFR.
SAT-MON...VFR/MVFR WITH PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA. LOCALLY +RA PSBL SAT
NGT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...ROSS/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...WATSON
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1242 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1042 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
LOW CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO NORTHEAST SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN SO
HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. HRRR PICKING UP ON THIS
PRETTY WELL AND SHOWS CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE.
CURRENT HIGH TEMPS APPEAR ON TRACK FOR THE TIME BEING SO NO BIG
CHANGES THERE. FORECAST FOR TODAY REMAINS DRY WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
REMNANT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE COMPLEX WHICH
TRACKED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA LAST EVENING IS
ONGOING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST CWA. THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST...EXITING THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD DRY OUT FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS
DEVELOP A 30+ KT LLJ AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
MODELS SUGGEST INITIAL STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE NOSE OF THE
JET...BUT THEN TRACK FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY SLIDES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. CERTAINLY AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THREAT AS 0-6 KM SHEAR TOPS OUT AROUND 50 KTS. CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY LINGER OVER THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CAP WILL BE OVER THE
CWA THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER /700 MB TEMPS RANGE FROM
10 TO 14 C FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA/. WHILE MODELS ARE
STILL STRUGGLING IN THE CONSENSUS DEPARTMENT...IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE
BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER AND WILL
AGAIN BE A LATE NIGHT SHOW DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AND THE SURFACE FRONT. SEVERE PARAMETERS STILL LOOK RATHER
IMPRESSIVE...AND SPC HAS PLACED THE NORTHERN CWA INTO A MARGINAL
RISK.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
FAST AND RELATIVELY FLAT MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM. THIS MEANS PERIODIC MCS ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE REGION. UNFORTUNATELY TIMING ISSUES ABOUND WITH THE
DIFFERENT MODELS AND THUS A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH TO POPS HAD TO BE
USED. NEEDLESS TO SAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH
THIS MORNING ON DETERMINISTIC DETAILS. A LL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE
HANGING OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD...LENDING MORE
SUPPORT FOR PERIODIC SHOWERS/STORMS. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
AN AREA OF MVFR STRATUS IS ONCE AGAIN IMPACTING THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THE MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER AT LEAST FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS NEAR KABR/KATY AND WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER KMBG
BETWEEN 18Z AND 19Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AND PUSH ACROSS THE CWA. KMBG WILL SEE STORMS BEGIN
BETWEEN 6Z AND 9Z WHILE OTHER SITES WILL POTENTIALLY SEE SOME
STORMS CLOSER TO 12Z. THEN ANOTHER AREA OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE NEAR KMBG/KPIR. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...WISE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
342 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2015
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)
Bill remnants well to the northeast, with a weak shear axis draped
from the Hill Country northeast into the center of Bill. Have
continued to see scattered showers and storms across the Hill
Country and these should continue. Both the HRRR and the TTU WRF to
a lesser extent show a little convection developing later this
afternoon across much of the remainder of the area. Will continue
the mention of a few isolated showers and storms for a few hours
this evening. A few storms possible again on Friday afternoon across
the southeast as the shear axis slowly erodes, but rain chances at
most locations will be so small that will not mention in the
forecast. Otherwise, warm and humid air mass in place with surface
dewpoints hanging near 70 in most locations.
.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Thursday)
Upper high pressure will continue to build eastward over the
southwestern states this weekend as an inverted upper trough
expands into south Texas from northern Mexico. There is a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms associated with the Mexican
disturbance over the Interstate 10 corridor Saturday afternoon
and through Saturday night. The presence of the Mexican upper low
will keep a slight chance of rainfall over primarily the southern
portions of the forecast area south of Interstate 20 through
Monday night. As the center of the upper high pressure area moves
east over the southern Plains late Monday the upper inverted
trough will be deflected to our west as will any associated
rainfall. The forecast will therefore remain dry Monday through
Thursday.
Temperatures will remain seasonal with afternoon highs in the
upper 80s to the lower 90s and morning lows around 70.
15
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 71 91 72 91 72 / 10 10 5 5 5
San Angelo 71 90 70 89 70 / 20 10 5 5 10
Junction 70 87 71 87 71 / 20 20 10 20 20
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
102 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
CONCERNS...THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND MVFR CIGS FRIDAY
MORNING AT KACT. POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AND MVFR CIGS IN THE
METROPLEX.
KACT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING
AROUND KACT AND WILL CARRY A VCTS WITH VFR CONDITIONS OTHERWISE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST MVFR
CIGS AT KACT FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL RETAIN THE BKN017 FROM
09-14Z. THERE IS A CHANCE THE STRATUS MAY NOT HAPPEN AND WILL
UPDATE THE TAF AS NECESSARY. SOUTH WINDS GENERALLY AOB 10 KTS WILL
PREVAIL.
DFW AIRPORTS... WILL CARRY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BUT WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORING FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION
AFFECTING ANY OF THE DFW TAF SITES. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MAINLY BE EAST TO SOUTH
OF DFW...BUT ITS POSSIBLE ONE MAY DEVELOP OR MOVE NEAR A TAF
SITE. THE WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE
WEST AT 8-15 KTS BUT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE DEVELOPMENT
OF MVFR CIGS AFFECTING THE DFW TAF SITES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ONLY KDAL WILL BE AFFECTED BY MVFR
STRATUS WHILE THE REMAINING SITES REMAIN VFR. FOR NOW...HAVE OPTED
TO PREVAIL A SCT021 GROUP FROM 12-17Z. IT IS POSSIBLE THERE COULD
BE A BRIEF TIME PERIOD WITHIN THAT WINDOW WHERE SKIES ARE BROKEN
MVFR AT ANY OF THE AIRPORTS.
JLDUNN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015/
RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BILL STILL HAS A GOOD CIRCULATION THAT WAS CENTERED
NORTHWEST OF DURANT OKLAHOMA AS OF 330 AM. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
CONTINUED ALONG THE RED RIVER COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS AND THE MAIN
FEEDER BAND EXTENDED SOUTHEAST OF A COLLEGE STATION TO TYLER TO
TEXARKANA LINE.
THE QUESTION FOR TODAY IS HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL THE FORECAST
AREA HAVE. THE COMPUTER MODELS VARY QUITE A LOT ON THIS QUESTION
WITH THE NAM KEEPING MOST OF THE RAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF
I-20 LATE AFTERNOON. THE HRRR AND TEXAS TECH MODELS INDICATE THAT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TODAY PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST
OF A SULPHUR SPRINGS TO COMANCHE LINE WITH SOME BANDS OF LIGHTER
RAIN NORTH OF I-20. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT THE BEST POPS/60 TO 80
PERCENT/ ALONG THE RED RIVER AND ALSO EAST OF I-35. HAVE KEPT A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALONG THE RED RIVER...AND ALSO FOR AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF A BONHAM TO TERRELL TO HILLSBORO TO KILLEEN LINE UNTIL
7 PM. WE TOYED WITH THE IDEA OF A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS NORTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR TODAY...BUT DECIDED INSTEAD TO GO
WITH WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 80 IN THE NORTHEAST THE LOWER 90S
ACROSS THE WEST.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE EVEN MORE ON THE DECREASE TONIGHT WITH THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVING FARTHER AWAY...SO HAVE LEFT SOME LOW POPS
ACROSS BUT FAR WESTERN COUNTIES FOR THIS EVENING...AND THEN JUST
EAST OF I-35 AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY...SO HAVE
KEPT 20 PERCENT POPS AREA WIDE. AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FOR THE WEEKEND...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN
FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. EAST NORTHEAST INTO THE OKLAHOMA. AT
THE SAME TIME...AN INVERTED 500MB TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO THE BIG COUNTRY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AREAS SOUTH
OF I-20 AND WEST OF I-45 SUNDAY. THIS INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE
WESTWARD MONDAY AND TUESDAY INTO FAR WEST TEXAS AND INTO MEXICO.
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TAKING HOLD...DRY WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
58
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 89 74 93 76 92 / 30 20 20 10 5
WACO, TX 90 73 92 74 91 / 40 20 20 5 10
PARIS, TX 80 71 88 73 90 / 60 50 20 10 10
DENTON, TX 86 70 92 74 91 / 30 20 20 10 5
MCKINNEY, TX 86 71 92 73 91 / 40 30 20 10 10
DALLAS, TX 89 75 93 76 91 / 30 20 20 10 10
TERRELL, TX 87 72 92 74 90 / 50 30 20 10 10
CORSICANA, TX 86 73 91 73 90 / 50 20 20 5 10
TEMPLE, TX 89 72 90 73 90 / 50 20 20 5 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 91 70 92 72 92 / 20 20 20 5 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ093>095-
105>107-120>123-134-135-145>148-158>162-174-175.
&&
$$
82/69
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1244 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. A WEAK FRONT NORTH OF THE
AREA WILL OSCILLATE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND AND BE THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY INTERACT WITH MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BILL TO BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM EDT THURSDAY...
WEAK FRONT HAS SLIPPED BACK NORTH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH
OVERALL WEST TO SW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AND DRIER AIR ALOFT AS
SEEN OFF MORNING SOUNDINGS. ALSO GIVEN LOWER PWATS AND DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN...APPEARS CONVECTIVE THREAT MUCH
LOWER AT LEAST EARLY ON ESPCLY WITH THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT
NOW TO THE NE UNDER LACK OF FORCING ALOFT. APPEARS BEST FOCUS WILL
AGAIN BE WITH CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES WHERE MORE IN
THE WAY OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING APPEARS LIKELY. STRENGTH AND
DEGREE OF MIXING WITH THE WEST WIND AND CORRESPONDING DOWNSLOPE
THE KEY TO SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST AS
SHOULD SEE QUITE A BIT LESS OR DELAYED COVERAGE IF WINDS STAY
BETTER MIXED INTO AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON. LATEST HRRR AGAIN THE
WETTEST WITH ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT BLUE RIDGE AND SOME CLUSTERING
SE WEST VA LATER ON WHEN MIXING WEAKENS AND PERHAPS A FAINT
UPSTREAM WEAK IMPULSE APPROACHES. REMAINDER OF SOLUTIONS INCLUDING
THE 12Z NAM MUCH LESS AMBITIOUS...WITH COVERAGE MAINLY WEST THIS
EVENING WHEN CAPPING ALOFT FADES...AND MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT WILL BE SAGGING BACK SOUTH LATE. THUS
TRIMMED BACK POPS WHILE RUNNING WITH LOW CHANCES WEST...AND
MAINLY 20-30 COVERAGE BLUE RIDGE EAST WHERE THE FLOW MAY BACK SW A
LITTLE MORE.
OTRW ANOTHER VERY HOT/HUMID AFTERNOON UNDER MOSTLY/PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES PER CI/CU...WITH THICKNESS PUSHING MID/UPPER 90S EAST GIVEN
WEAK DOWNSLOPE AND 85-90 WEST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...
STARTING THE DAY OFF WITH A FOG IN A COUPLE AREAS THANKS TO WET
SOILS FROM RAINFALL WEDNESDAY EVENING...AS WELL AS LIGHT WINDS
AND DECREASING CLOUD COVER. ANY FOG WHICH DEVELOPS WILL BE QUICK
TO BURN OFF AFTER 9 AM AS HEATING INCREASES.
THE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE MORE DOMINATED BY
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY...RESULTING
IN GENERALLY WESTERLY WINDFLOW. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS MORNING...HOWEVER THE
RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY...ALLOWING SUBTLE
DISTURBANCES TO PASS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT SPOTTY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460
BEGINNING AROUND LUNCHTIME AS ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE ENTERS FROM THE
WEST. AS THE DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED...LIKELY SOLIDIFYING INTO A BROKEN LINE AS THEY PASS
ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE. STRONG HEATING TODAY FROM THE DOWNSLOPE
WINDFLOW WILL ALLOW THE LOW LEVELS TO DRY OUT...INCREASING THE
THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS WITH THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH
CANNOT RULE OUT HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN WITH SOME OF THE LARGER
STORMS.
AS THIS AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS EXITS...WILL ALSO HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE TO OUR NORTHWEST THURSDAY EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS ANOTHER
POTENTIAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO RIVER. STILL A LITTLE
DIFFICULT TO SAY AT THIS POINT HOW FAR INTO OUR AREA THESE STORMS
WILL ADVANCE OR WHAT SHAPE THEY WILL BE IN WHEN THEY ARRIVE...BUT
GIVEN THE TIMING OF THEIR PASSAGE...EXPECT THAT THEY WILL BE BELOW
SEVERE INTENSITY.
THE COMBINATION OF RIDGING ALOFT AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN THE LOW
LEVELS WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHSIDE WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT LOW TO MID 90S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...
AND MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT THURSDAY...
EXPECT BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER SINKS SOUTHWARD. CONVECTION
WILL PULSE UP DURING LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING MORE
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE
EVENING. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND INSTABILITY APPEAR TO BE MODEST...
HOWEVER WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STORMS BECOME SEVERE.
THE MAIN ACTIVITY WILL PUSH EAST OF OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...
LEAVING ONLY LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...BRINGING WITH IT A
NORTHEASTERLY WINDSHIFT ACROSS THE AREA.
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE RIDGELINES COMBINED WITH
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL WILL TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF PULSE
VARIETY STORMS BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE
MAIN ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH BILL WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL SATURDAY
NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING THAT THE SYSTEM
WILL PASS UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...DRAWING WITH IT A PLUME OF
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...WITH PWATS AROUND 2.2 INCHES COMING INTO
THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. BELIEVE THE SYSTEM WILL PLAY OUT AS A SOLID
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AS IT ENTERS OUR AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...AFFECTING MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS OF VIRGINIA AND
WEST VIRGINIA. THE REMNANTS OF BILL WILL MOVE QUICKLY HOWEVER...SO
DO NOT BELIEVE THAT HEAVY RAIN WILL LAST FOR MORE THAN A FEW HOURS
BEFORE EXITING THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
ON MONDAY THE TS REMNANTS WILL BE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND GETTING
ABSORBED BY ANOTHER LOW/FRONTAL SYSTEM SWEEPING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST.
THERE IS NOTHING TO PUSH THIS FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION SO IT WILL
SIMPLY PIVOT/MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA AS THE UPPER PATTERN STARTS TO
AMPLIFY AGAIN WITH A RIDGE BECOMING REESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN US.
THIS WILL KEEP US LOCKED INTO THE HEAT WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO GRADUALLY
NUDGE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT
THE BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK AND LEAVE US VULNERABLE TO UPSTREAM MCS DEVELOPMENT SLIDING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. WITHOUT ANYTHING DEFINITIVE TO LATCH ON
TO WILL KEEP POPS LOW AND WAIT FOR THE SITUATION TO DEFINE ITSELF
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM EDT THURSDAY...
ANOTHER WARM MUGGY AFTERNOON IN STORE WITH AFTERNOON BUILD-UPS
AND WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING IN BRIEF MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS ESPCLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ASIDE FROM THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT AND EARLY MORNING FOG...CONDITIONS TO REMAIN PRIMARILY VFR
THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
SOUTH...WINDS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
WESTERLY WIND FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA...GUSTY AT TIMES ESPCLY
THIS AFTERNOON.
FOG AGAIN OVERNIGHT DEPENDENT UPON THE DEGREE OF RAINFALL THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH POTENTIAL TO SEE AREAS OF LIFR/IFR IN
FOG/STRATUS IN THE VALLEYS LATE AND EVEN MVFR ELSEWHERE THAT
RECEIVES A HEAVY SHOWER. FOR NOW WILL TREND TOWARD PERSISTENCE
FROM LAST NIGHT AND INCLUDE A PERIOD OF MVFR IN FOG AT ALL
LOCATIONS EXCLUDING KROA/KBLF...WITH MVFR AT KLYH/KDAN AND IFR
AROUND KBCB/KLWB.
REPEAT PERFORMANCE LIKELY ON FRIDAY WITH FOG GIVING WAY TO MORE
BUILD-UPS BY AFTERNOON WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
COVERAGE INTO THE EVENING.
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL BE WEAKEN WITH TIME AS THE
REMNANTS OF TS BILL MOVE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
MODELS SUGGEST THE BEST LIFT OVER OUR AREA FROM TS BILL WILL OCCUR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR LOOKS TO ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT IMPULSES
TRACKING SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST MAY BRING A COUPLE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS AND POSSIBLE SUB-VFR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...
RECORD HIGHS FOR THURSDAY JUNE 18TH...
STATION RECORD HIGHS/YEAR
ROANOKE 97/1925
LYNCHBURG 96/1944
DANVILLE 96/2007
BLACKSBURG 88/2014
BLUEFIELD 90/2007
LEWISBURG 89/2014
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...JH/NF
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...JH/NF/PM
CLIMATE...JH/PM
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER EAST-CENTRAL WI EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAVE EXITED THE
LAKESHORE REGION...AND PARTIAL CLEARING EXISTS BEHIND THE LOW AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH IS MOVING SOUTH OVER NORTHERN WI.
WEAK RETURNS ARE SHOWING UP ON RADAR ALONG THE FRONT...AND ONE OB AT
HAYWARD DID REGISTER A SPRINKLE. WILL CARRY AN ISOLATED SHOWER
MENTION WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH 00Z. BEHIND THE FRONT...CHILLY
NORTH WINDS ARE CAUSING TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 50S AND 60S.
FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE A LINGERING SHOWER THREAT INTO THE
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY TEMPS.
TONIGHT...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EAST-CENTRAL WI DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE HIGHER RES MODELS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP CONVERGENCE OVER CENTRAL WI LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING WHERE AN ISOLATED SHOWER COULD FORM. AS A
RESULT...KEPT A MENTION IN THE FORECAST THROUGH 02Z. THEREAFTER...A
CLEARING SKY AND A COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN SOME CHILLY
TEMPS OVER FAR N-C WISCONSIN. LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S ARE A
POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW HOURS LATE IN THE COLD SPOTS...BUT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION FOR THE
MORNING THEN MOVE TO THE EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN SOME MID-
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA
IN THE AFTERNOON...SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY. COMFORTABLE HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
PCPN TRENDS...AND SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY...ARE THE
MAIN FCST CONCERNS.
HAVE SLOWED DOWN PCPN PROGRESSION A LITTLE BIT ON FRIDAY. WAA WILL
BE INCREASING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WSTRN CWA...BUT A LINGERING
DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS SHOULD HOLD BACK SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. WILL
JUST CARRY A CHANCE OVER OUR FAR NW COUNTIES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
ANY ONGOING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX (DEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A S/W TROF...RRQ OF UPPER JET AND WAA) IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES INTO NC/C WI SATURDAY MORNING...AND MAY NOT EVEN MAKE IT
INTO EAST CENTRAL WI BEFORE 18Z. LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL INHIBIT HEATING...LEADING TO ONLY MARGINAL
INSTABILITY...WITH CAPES AROUND 500-1000 J/KG. SO...DESPITE
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DOUBT CONCERNING
THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SVR TSTMS ON SATURDAY. MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THE BETTER POTENTIAL WILL BE FOCUSED OVER SW WI...CLOSER TO
THE STRONGER INSTABILITY. WILL BACK OFF A BIT ON THE SVR WORDING
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. A CHANCE OF STORMS WILL LINGER
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
EXPECT A MAINLY DRY DAY ON SUNDAY...DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A
WEAK SFC BOUNDARY. 850 MB FLOW IS WESTERLY...SO ANY LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY SHALLOW.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...AS A S/W TROF AND JET STREAK MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
POPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED A BIT DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT
WOULD LIKE TO SEE A FEW MORE MODELS RUNS...AND ESPECIALLY A
LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT ON TIMING.
EXPECT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT..AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION DURING THE WED-THU
PERIOD...BRINGING A CHANCE OF TSTMS. THE GFS SHOWS THE BEST
POTENTIAL...WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO THE REGION WED
NGT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE MAIN BRUNT OF THE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO STRAY TOO FAR FROM NORMAL
DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS WILL EXIT NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN...BUT ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME VFR BY THE TIME THEY REACH THE CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI
TAF SITES. A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS
AFTERNOON EITHER...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE TO SPARSE TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS. CLEARING SKIES WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT FOLLOWED
BY GOOD FLYING WEATHER ON FRIDAY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
320 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2015
A RELENTLESS PERIOD OF SEVERE WEATHER FINALLY APPEARS TO BE COMING
TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS CONTRIBUTING
TO STRONG CAPPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS...AND ANY LARGER SCALE
FORCING MECHANISMS ARE LIMITED. RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
YESTERDAYS CONVECTION...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACROSS LARAMIE COUNTY
FROM MORNING STRATUS...AND WEAK LLVL UPSLOPE WILL BE THE FOCI FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR SHOWS ONE OR TWO STORMS
ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE AFTER 20Z...BUT THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS HAVE
SHOWN VIRTUALLY NO DEVELOPMENT OR EASTWARD PROGRESS. WILL MAINTAIN
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER OVER THE PLAINS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
THAT ANYWHERE EAST OF I25 WILL SEE MUCH. IF STORMS DEVELOP...THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS IS VERY MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 55-65 F
RANGE. MUCAPES OF 2500-3500 J/KG COMBINED WITH AVERAGE 0-6 KM SHEAR
VALUES AROUND 30 KTS WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...SO DO NOT SEE A GOOD
REASON TO REMOVE SEVERE WORDING. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...NOCTURNAL
SOUTHERLY LLVL/H85 JET WILL CRANK UP OVER WESTERN NEB. CANNOT RULE
OUT AN ELEVATED STORM LATE...BUT THINK THIS FEATURE WILL BE FEEDING
AN MCS WELL TO THE NORTH OVER WESTERN SD. IT WILL BE BREEZY TONIGHT
ALONG THE PINE RIDGE IN DAWES/SIOUX COUNTIES.
A TOASTY AFTERNOON FOR FRIDAY WITH THE GFS/NAM/ECM/GEM ALL SHOWING
H7 TEMPS AROUND 17-18 DEG C AND 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES AROUND
585 DM OVER THE PLAINS. DESPITE LLVL CONVERGENCE ALONG A STRONG SFC
TROUGH/DRYLINE ALONG THE WYO/NEB BORDER...WARM AIR ALOFT AND LARGER
SCALE RIDGING WILL SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION. SUBSIDENCE SHOULD SUPPORT
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS WELL. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH AFTERNOON CUMULUS
WE SEE...NEAR RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE WITH UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 F
OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. IN ADDITION...THIS IS A GREAT PATTERN
FOR NIGHTLY MCS COMPLEXES OVER NORTHEAST WY AND WESTERN SD...SO WE
CANNOT RULE OUT NIGHT TIME OR EARLY AM CONVECTION ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHERN ZONES...MOVING IN FROM NEIGHBORING CWAS. OTHERWISE WE CAN
ENJOY A PLEASANT...ALBEIT WARM AFTERNOON/EVENING FREE OF ANY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. COOLER ON SAT WITH A COLD FROPA...ALONG
WITH A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THE DAY 3 OUTLOOK
FROM SPC HAS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA IN A MRGNL RISK...WHICH SEEMS
APPROPRIATE WITH THE NAM SHOWING STRONG INSTABILITY AND GOOD SHEAR
BENEATH 50 KT FLOW AT H5. COULD SEE THE RISK CATEGORY BEING BUMPED
UP IN THE FUTURE DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF FORCING/CAPPING. KEPT
POPS ISOLATED FOR NOW...BUT EXPECT A REVISION UPWARDS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2015
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE IS HOW
MUCH CAP WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK.
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS SHOWING DRIER AIR STARTING TO PUSH
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING THAT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH WEAK TROFS MOVING
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL RESULT IN A MORE ZONAL PATTERN
OVER OUR REGION THROUGH THE WEEK.
SATURDAY NIGHT: THIS TIMEFRAME APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN
AS A STRONG (90-100KT) JET AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
WYOMING. THIS JET WILL PROVIDE STRONG WINDS ALOFT. IN
ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO EAST-
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL RESULT IN ADVECTION OF
DEEPER MOISTURE WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40 TO 50KTS.
ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD GENERALLY TRACK
WEST TO EAST AT AROUND 15 TO 20KTS WITH RIGHT MOVING SUPERCELLS
TRACKING SOUTHEAST AT 15KTS. WE ARE A BIT WORRIED THAT THIS
CONVECTION MAY TRY TO SLOW DOWN LATE SATURDAY EVENING AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET INCREASES TO AROUND 30 TO 35 KTS WHICH MAY YIELD TO
BACKBUILDING STORMS AND POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL.
SUNDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT: THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IS
BUILDING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIGHTLY OVER OUR REGION. THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT SOME GOOD CAPPING OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL RESULT
IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED CONVECTION. THIS SHOULD ALSO
ALLOW FOR SOILS TO DRY OUT. CANNOT RULE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION
ON TUESDAY AS THE CAP BEGINS TO WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO WEAK
POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY:
THE GFS SHOWS A POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY PUSHING THROUGH
NORTHERN MONTANA AND SOUTHERN CANADA ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THIS WAVE BUT SHOWS MORE RIDGING
BUILDING OVER INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...AND PROVIDES MORE TROFFING OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EITHER WAY...THIS MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO A WEAKER CAP ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2015
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE IS THE CHANCES OF LOW
CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT.
LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING THE STRATUS HAVING A DIFFICULT
TIME CLEARING OUT THIS MORNING. THIS INDICATES THAT THE CAP IS A
LITTLE STRONGER THAN PROGGED. HOWEVER...LATEST RADAR LOOP WAS
SHOWING A BOUNDARY SETTING UP ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE. THIS MAY BE
A FOCUS FOR MORE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY. AS A RESULT...WE
ARE KEEPING THE VCTS IN THE CHEYENNE TAF THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...IF THESE STORMS DO GET GOING THIS AFTERNOON WE MAY END
UP WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. IF
THE STORMS DO BECOME SEVERE...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SPLITTING
SUPERCELLS ONCE AGAIN. MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP
AGAIN ACROSS MONTANA AND EXTREME NORTHERN WYOMING THIS EVENING AND
MAY TRY TO CLIP THE CDR TAF SITE AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR NOW...WE WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE TAF AND SEE WHERE THE
COMPLEX OF STORMS DEVELOPS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LOW MVFR CEILINGS
MAY DEVELOP AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE SITES
ESPECIALLY WITH THE ADVECTION OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
COMPLEX OF STORMS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2015
VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL FALL TO
BETWEEN 10 AND 20 PERCENT...WITH WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 25 MPH
ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND SATURDAY...POSSIBLY SEVERE. WINDS COULD BE
GUSTY AND ERRATIC NEAR CONVECTION.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...REC
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...REC
FIRE WEATHER...CLH