Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/17/15


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
948 AM MST MON JUN 15 2015 .SYNOPSIS...HOTTER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH VALUES BETWEEN 105 AND 111 FROM TUCSON INTO THE LOWER DESERTS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS INTO MONDAY...WITH AN ADDITIONAL PUSH OF MOISTURE FROM NEW MEXICO TUESDAY BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. && .DISCUSSION...THE LATEST HRRR SOLUTION WAS SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE AZ/NM STATE LINE TODAY. OTHERWISE...THE HEAT WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY THIS WEEK. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKED ON TRACK...SO NO UPDATES NEEDED THIS MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR MORE DETAILS. && .AVIATION...VALID THROUGH 16/18Z. CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WITH FEW-SCT CUMULUS NEAR 12K FT DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AFT 15/18Z EXCEPT SCT-BKN OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WITH A FEW SHRA/-TSRA 15/21Z THRU 16/04Z. SKIES CLEARING AFT 16/05Z EXCEPT NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS 12- 14K FT. NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS INCLUDING GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS IN SOME LOCATIONS DUE TO SURFACE HEATING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS. && .FIRE WEATHER...SOME LINGERING MOISTURE OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND JUST EAST OF THE STATE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVEN A BIT MORE SO TUESDAY. THEN A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN VERY HOT...DRY AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR RECORD LEVELS WITH AFTERNOON MINIMUM RH LEVELS BETWEEN 8 AND 13 PERCENT EACH DAY. OCCASIONAL...UNSTABLE HAINES 6 CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING WED-SAT ACROSS ZONES 152 AND 153 THEN POTENTIALLY SPREADING INTO ZONES 150 AND 151 SUNDAY AND MONDAY...EVEN LINGERING THROUGH THE NIGHT PERIODS THOSE TWO DAYS. WHILE FUELS ARE GENERALLY IN BETTER SHAPE THAN IN RECENT YEARS...THESE WEATHER CONDITIONS WOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR STRONG PLUME DEVELOPMENT IF A LARGE FIRE WERE TO DEVELOP. WINDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND DIURNAL WITH THE USUAL OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON GUSTS...TYPICAL FOR JUNE. CERNIGLIA && .CLIMATE...MID-JUNE NEAR RECORD HEAT IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEK. HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR JUNE 16-19. DATE JUNE 16 JUNE 17 JUNE 18 JUNE 19 TUCSON INTL AIRPORT 109/1988 109/2008 113/1989 112/1989 BISBEE-DOUGLAS AIRPORT 104/2008 105/2008 108/1989 108/1989 AJO 112/1916 113/1917 114/1936 114/1968 FORT THOMAS 109/1978 111/1959 111/1960 115/1960 ORGAN PIPE CACTUS 110/1993 111/2001 114/1989 115/1960 PICACHO PEAK 111/2000 111/2008 112/1989 111/2002 SAFFORD AG STATION 102/2000 99/2014 101/2003 101/2008 SIERRA VISTA FD 102/1989 103/1989 107/1989 106/1989 TOMBSTONE 105/1985 105/1980 107/1989 108/1989 WILLCOX 105/1948 105/1985 106/1989 108/1989 && .PREV DISCUSSION...MODELS INDICATE THAT AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...AND THE RIDGE AXIS NOSES IN FROM THE WEST...MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL SNEAK IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AND EAST TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. THE BEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WITH LOW END CHANCE CATEGORY POPS...THEN FOR TUESDAY THE THREAT SPREADS A BIT FARTHER WEST WITH SOLID CHANCE CATEGORY POPS FOR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE CATEGORY POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF GRAHAM AND COCHISE COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE VERY HOT TEMPERATURES ON TAP FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE EASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. LOCAL STUDY CORRELATING 850-700MB THICKNESS VALUES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SUGGEST HIGH TEMPS WILL BE HOT FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT THE HOTTEST DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH READINGS APPROACHING THE 110 DEGREE MARK FOR CENTRAL DESERTS AND MEETING OR EVEN EXCEEDING THIS THRESHOLD FOR THE WESTERN DESERTS (AJO/ORGAN PIPE). STILL ROOM FOR IMPROVEMENT IN THE TEMP FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER IN TIME...SO STAY TUNED. THESE HIGH TEMPERATURES...IN PARTICULAR FOR TUCSON...WILL GENERALLY BE 3 TO 5 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR TODAY AND TUESDAY...THEN AROUND 6 TO 8 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE WARMEST DAYS WILL LIKELY OCCUR FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY. LOW TEMPS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 7 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
936 AM MDT MON JUN 15 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 917 AM MDT MON JUN 15 2015 OVERALL NO MAJOR UPDATES PLANNED FOR THE ONGOING FORECAST. STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COOL FRONT. LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS GENERATE CAPES AROUND 1400 J/KG WITH T/TD OF 74/53. HRRR SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING INITIALLY DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE AFTER 18Z WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OFF THE FOOTHILLS FROM LARIMER COUNTY SOUTHWARD INTO JEFFERSON COUNTY AFTER 21Z. BEST CHC OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR...THIS ALL IS REFLECTED FAIRLY WELL IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. BEST DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FOR THE DEVELOPING STORMS THIS AFTN WILL LIKELY OCCUR NORTH ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE AND SOUTH OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE...SO IF A LANDSPOUT DOES FORM THESE MAY BE THE BEST AREAS. PW VALUES CLOSE TO ONE INCH AGAIN WITH STORM MOTIONS FM THE WEST/NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN ADDITION TO HAIL UP QUARTER SIZE THE PRIMARY THREATS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT ) ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT MON JUN 15 2015 THE WEAK COLD FRONT FROM LAST EVENING CAME THROUGH RATHER WIMPY AS SURFACE WINDS HAVE BECOME VARIABLE UNDER 10KT OVERNIGHT. PER VAD WINDS...THERE IS SOME SHALLOW UPSLOPE FLOW FROM THE NORTHEAST JUST OFF THE DECK AND IS HELPING TO DEVELOP SOME HIGH STRATUS NEAR THE FOOTHILLS IN THE 4 TO 5 THOUSAND FOOT LEVEL AGL. THERE WAS A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT HAVE DISSIPATED TRYING TO COME OFF THE HILLS. OTHER AREA OF STRATUS ALSO DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS WITH SOME PROGRESSION TOWARDS THE WEST. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP FOLLOWING LAST EVENINGS SURGES WITH DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS ALL OF THE PLAINS. INTEGRATED PW VALUES HAVE ALSO INCREASED TO NOW JUST OVER .80". WILL NEED TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER THIS AM GIVEN LATEST TRENDS FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY. INCREASED MOISTURE VALUES WILL LEAD TO HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS PW VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND AN INCH OVER THE FRONT RANGE. INITIAL LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS WILL DISSOLVE BY MID AFTERNOON AND RESULTANT CAPE VALUES ANYWHERE FROM 1000-2000J/KG OVER FRONT RANGE AND PLAINS. SHEAR PROFILE IS MARGINAL BUT WITH HIGH CAPES THERE IS A SEVERE THREAT FOR HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH STORMS. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHTLY OUT OF THE WEST WHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A FEW POSSIBLE RIPPLES IN THE FLOW ACROSS UTAH AND NEVADA. WITH ONLY WEAK QG ASCENT WON`T EXPECT STORMS TO LAST MUCH PAST MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT MON JUN 15 2015 INCREASINGLY DRY UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WILL DOMINATE TUESDAY OVER NE COLORADO. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL ALLOW MORE TERRAIN DRIVEN CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT CAN`T RULE OUT SOME DEVELOPMENT ALONG A LINE NORTH OF THE PALMER DIVIDE SW OF DENVER WITH THE HELP OF A POSSIBLE DENVER CYCLONE SET UP. NAM IS HINTING MORE AT IT WITH THE 00Z. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL BUT WE SHOULD WARM UP INTO THE UPPER 80S. EVEN WITH THE LACK OF DECENT SHEAR THE CYCLONE COULD HELP TO SPIN OFF A FEW STORMS THAT COULD RESULT IN BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...WINDS AND HAIL. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY UNIFORM WESTERLY FLOW MOVES IN WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY. BOTH EC AND GFS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND HIGH WINDS INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL BUT WITH DECENT SHEAR CONDITIONS COULD PRODUCE STRONG STORMS BY WEDNESDAY EVE. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE WEEKEND WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN USHERING IN MORE SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS. MOISTURE DECREASES GREATLY OVER THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL START TO BREAKDOWN BY FRIDAY EVENING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON DROPPING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY SUNDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 917 AM MDT MON JUN 15 2015 STRATUS STILL AROUND THIS MORNING WITH ILS/MVFR CIGS RESTRICTIONS THROUGH 17Z. AS THE AIRMASS WARMS THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT HIGHER CHANCES OF STORMS GIVEN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS WILL DISSOLVE AROUND 21Z RESULTING IN A WINDOW OF STORMS BETWEEN 21-02Z OVER TERMINALS... THE CAP MAY DISSOLVE SOONER...BY 18Z...SOUTH OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE. COULD SEE ILS APPROACHES RETURN WITH PASSING STORMS THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVNG. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT MON JUN 15 2015 BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS TODAY OVER THE FRONT RANGE WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PW VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND AN INCH THIS AFTERNOON SO HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED WITH STORMS. COULD SEE INCREASE OF STREAM/RIVER LEVELS IN PROXIMITY TO STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WOULD EXPECT FOCUS OF STORMS WITH HEAVIEST RAIN IN THE FOOTHILLS...PALMER DIVIDE AND PARK COUNTY GIVEN EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW THIS AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FLOOD WARNINGS ALONG THE S PLATTE...CACHE LA POUDRE RIVERS BUT THE WARNING ALONG S PLATTE IN JEFFERSON COUNTY LOOKS TO GO BELOW FLOOD WARNING STAGE SOMETIME EARLY THIS MORNING. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...COOPER SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN LONG TERM...BOWEN AVIATION...COOPER HYDROLOGY...BOWEN/ENTREKIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1043 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG IT...PASSING SOUTH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE EXITING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... UPDATED FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. AND WITH NO LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THIS MORNING ONLY. CHALLENGING TEMP FORECAST TODAY AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES WESTERN ZONES AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG IT. BY LATE DAY...THIS LOW TRACKS TOWARD NJ WITH FRONT JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. ALOFT...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES. WAA AND PLENTY OF LIFT MOVES EAST...AS DOES HIGH COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS. POPS QUICKLY LOWER AS MESOSCALE MODELS ALONG WITH NWP MODELS INDICATE LOWER COVERAGE AFTER 13Z. LATEST HRRR SEEMS QUITE REASONABLE. ANY SHOWERS COULD BE HEAVY AS PW CONTENT REMAINS QUITE HIGH...AROUND 2 INCHES. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TOWARD WESTERN LOCALES WHERE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE REALIZED DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONGER TSTMS MAY DEVELOP LATE DAY. HOWEVER...IF FRONT LOCATION IS SLIGHTLY WEST OF FORECAST...INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH DUE TO MORE OF AN EASTERLY FLOW...MARINE INFLUENCE. LARGE MAX TEMP SPREAD TODAY WITH EASTERLY FLOW KEEPING SE CT AND LI MUCH COOLER THAN NE NJ. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S SE CT AND ERN LI...TO THE MIDDLE 80S ACROSS NE NJ. FOLLOWED A MOS BLEND WITH AN ATTEMPT TO MATCH SREF MEANS. MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR OCEAN BEACHES. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... FORECAST AREA REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL BE TOUGH TO TIME AS THEY TRACK OVER THE RIDGE. SFC LOW LOOKS TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...WITH NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NW TUESDAY. ECMWF LOOKS TO BE A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN FASTER GFS AND SLOWER NAM. ANY EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL LIKELY PASS EAST OR WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA...AND SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THEN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY. AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY REMAINS IN QUESTION...BUT WINDS ALOFT COULD SUPPORT SOME STRONGER STORMS. MOS BLEND FOR TEMPS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A BLEND WILL PROVIDE BEST GUESS AVERAGE WHERE DISPARITIES ARE NOTED IN THE MOS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... ALOFT...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY JET STREAM STAYS JUST NORTH OF THE REGION FOR REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE MID LEVELS...THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM A LOOSE HEIGHT GRADIENT WITH THE LOCAL AREA BEING ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A LONGWAVE RIDGE TO A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW THAT EXHIBITS A TIGHTER HEIGHT GRADIENT. THE RIDGE WILL BE MORE FLAT AND SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTHERN U.S. WITH ONE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAVING PASSED TO THE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...A LESS AMPLIFIED ONE WILL BE MOVING IN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A STRONGER ONE PASSING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE HIGH CENTER MOVES RIGHT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY. IT WILL THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...MOVING ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. IN TERMS OF WEATHER...DRYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A DRY DAY TO FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...THE PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY FROM VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES TO VALUES APPROXIMATELY BETWEEN 0.6 AND 1 INCH...CONVEYING A MUCH LESS HUMID AIRMASS. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT HOWEVER. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY LIMITED WITH GENERALLY COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS SO NO THUNDERSTORMS WERE MENTIONED WITH THE FORECAST BUT THE PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST DO INCREASE TO NEAR 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES. DRY AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS THEREAFTER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM AS HUMIDITY LEVELS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A VERY CHALLENGING AVIATION WEATHER DAY IN THE NY METRO AND VICINITY. LOW PRESSURE ALONG A WARM FRONT WILL TRACK DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN TURN EAST TRACKING SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MARGINAL TO VFR FOR THE NY METRO AND HUDSON VALLEY BY EARLY AFTN. IFR HOLDS ON FOR LONG ISLAND AND CT TODAY. CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVER NJ THIS AFTERNOON THAT SPREADS INTO THE NY METRO. TOO EARLY FOR SPECIFIC...SO USED VCTS. LARGE UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES AROUND WIND DIRECTION FCST FOR THE NY METRO THIS AFTN. TIMING OF SHIFT TO NE COULD BE OFF SEVERAL HOURS. BUT DO EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT SWITCH TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE NY METRO SOME TIME LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IFR TO PERHAPS LIFR OVERNIGHT. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH FCST IN TERMS OF TIMING. WIND SHIFT TO NE EXPECTED SOMETIME DURING LATE AFTN DEPARTURE BANK. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH FCST IN TERMS OF TIMING. WIND SHIFT TO NE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTN...BUT COULD BE AS EARLY AS 18Z. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH FCST IN TERMS OF TIMING. WIND DIRECTION THIS AFTN COULD STAY MORE SOUTHERLY...OR EVEN SOUTHEAST. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH FCST IN TERMS OF TIMING. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH FCST IN TERMS OF TIMING. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF THE ONSET OF IFR. COULD BE LATER THAN FCST. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .TUE-TUE NGT...IFR TO LOCALLY LIFR IN THE EARLY MORNING...BECOMING VFR. MVFR IN AFTN SHRA/TSRA. .WED...VFR. .THU-FRI...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA. && .MARINE... UPDATED WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS FOR THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE FORECAST WIND AND SEAS REMAIN UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS FROM THE WEST TODAY AS LOW PRESSURES RIDES ALONG IT. SE WINDS WILL INCREASE...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN WATERS...AND SPEEDS MAY APPROACH 25 KTS OVER THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET FOR A TIME TODAY. WAVE WATCH III BUILDS SEAS TO 5 FEET ACROSS THESE WATERS. AFTER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL ISSUE SCA FOR TODAY AND THROUGH THE EVENING FOR THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS. OTHERWISE...THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSES ACROSS THE OCEAN ZONES TONIGHT...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY. SUB SCA EXPECTED. WITH GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS IN PLACE...CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO STAY BELOW SCA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... SCATTERED COVERAGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. EXPECT ANY FLASH OR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WILL BE ISOLATED. ANY HEAVIER SHOWER OR TSTM COULD PRODUCE A QUICK HALF INCH...BUT WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT QPF IS NOT ANTICIPATED FROM LATE THIS MORNING ON. WITH EACH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ESPECIALLY ANY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST...PRECIPITABLE WATERS COINCIDING WITH THESE ARE FORECAST TO BE AT LEAST 1.5 INCHES. THEREFORE...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH ANY OF THIS CONVECTION. ANY CONVECTION SUSTAINED...WOULD LEAD TO URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ350. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JM/PW NEAR TERM...PW SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...JM AVIATION...JMC/TONGUE MARINE...JM/PW HYDROLOGY...JM/PW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
937 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG IT...PASSING SOUTH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE EXITING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... UPDATED FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. AND WITH NO LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THIS MORNING ONLY. CHALLENGING TEMP FORECAST TODAY AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES WESTERN ZONES AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG IT. BY LATE DAY...THIS LOW TRACKS TOWARD NJ WITH FRONT JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. ALOFT...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES. WAA AND PLENTY OF LIFT MOVES EAST...AS DOES HIGH COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS. POPS QUICKLY LOWER AS MESOSCALE MODELS ALONG WITH NWP MODELS INDICATE LOWER COVERAGE AFTER 13Z. LATEST HRRR SEEMS QUITE REASONABLE. ANY SHOWERS COULD BE HEAVY AS PW CONTENT REMAINS QUITE HIGH...AROUND 2 INCHES. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TOWARD WESTERN LOCALES WHERE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE REALIZED DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONGER TSTMS MAY DEVELOP LATE DAY. HOWEVER...IF FRONT LOCATION IS SLIGHTLY WEST OF FORECAST...INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH DUE TO MORE OF AN EASTERLY FLOW...MARINE INFLUENCE. LARGE MAX TEMP SPREAD TODAY WITH EASTERLY FLOW KEEPING SE CT AND LI MUCH COOLER THAN NE NJ. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S SE CT AND ERN LI...TO THE MIDDLE 80S ACROSS NE NJ. FOLLOWED A MOS BLEND WITH AN ATTEMPT TO MATCH SREF MEANS. MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR OCEAN BEACHES. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... FORECAST AREA REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL BE TOUGH TO TIME AS THEY TRACK OVER THE RIDGE. SFC LOW LOOKS TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...WITH NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NW TUESDAY. ECMWF LOOKS TO BE A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN FASTER GFS AND SLOWER NAM. ANY EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL LIKELY PASS EAST OR WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA...AND SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THEN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY. AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY REMAINS IN QUESTION...BUT WINDS ALOFT COULD SUPPORT SOME STRONGER STORMS. MOS BLEND FOR TEMPS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A BLEND WILL PROVIDE BEST GUESS AVERAGE WHERE DISPARITIES ARE NOTED IN THE MOS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... ALOFT...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY JET STREAM STAYS JUST NORTH OF THE REGION FOR REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE MID LEVELS...THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM A LOOSE HEIGHT GRADIENT WITH THE LOCAL AREA BEING ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A LONGWAVE RIDGE TO A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW THAT EXHIBITS A TIGHTER HEIGHT GRADIENT. THE RIDGE WILL BE MORE FLAT AND SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTHERN U.S. WITH ONE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAVING PASSED TO THE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...A LESS AMPLIFIED ONE WILL BE MOVING IN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A STRONGER ONE PASSING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE HIGH CENTER MOVES RIGHT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY. IT WILL THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...MOVING ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. IN TERMS OF WEATHER...DRYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A DRY DAY TO FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...THE PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY FROM VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES TO VALUES APPROXIMATELY BETWEEN 0.6 AND 1 INCH...CONVEYING A MUCH LESS HUMID AIRMASS. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT HOWEVER. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY LIMITED WITH GENERALLY COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS SO NO THUNDERSTORMS WERE MENTIONED WITH THE FORECAST BUT THE PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST DO INCREASE TO NEAR 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES. DRY AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS THEREAFTER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM AS HUMIDITY LEVELS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A VERY CHALLENGING AVIATION WEATHER DAY IN THE NY METRO AND VICINITY. LOW PRESSURE ALONG A WARM FRONT WILL TRACK DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN TURN EAST TRACKING SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE MOVING EAST OVER EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND CT. GENERALLY IFR TO START...CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MARGINAL TO VFR FOR THE NY METRO AND HUDSON VALLEY BY LATE MORNING. IFR HOLDS ON FOR LONG ISLAND AND CT. CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVER NJ THIS AFTERNOON THAT SPREADS INTO THE NY METRO. TOO EARLY FOR SPECIFIC...SO USED VCTS. LARGE UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES AROUND WIND DIRECTION FCST FOR THE NY METRO THIS AFTN. TIMING OF SHIFT TO NE COULD BE OFF SEVERAL HOURS. BUT DO EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT SWITCH TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE NY METRO SOME TIME LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IFR TO PERHAPS LIFR OVERNIGHT. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH FCST IN TERMS OF TIMING. WIND SHIFT TO NE EXPECTED SOMETIME DURING LATE AFTN DEPARTURE BANK. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH FCST IN TERMS OF TIMING. WIND SHIFT TO NE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTN...BUT COULD BE AS EARLY AS 18Z. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH FCST IN TERMS OF TIMING. WIND DIRECTION THIS AFTN COULD STAY MORE SOUTHERLY...OR EVEN SOUTHEAST. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH FCST IN TERMS OF TIMING. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH FCST IN TERMS OF TIMING. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF THE ONSET OF IFR. COULD BE LATER THAN FCST. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .TUE-TUE NGT...IFR TO LOCALLY LIFR IN THE EARLY MORNING...BECOMING VFR. MVFR IN AFTN SHRA/TSRA. .WED...VFR. .THU-FRI...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA. && .MARINE... UPDATED WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS FOR THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE FORECAST WIND AND SEAS REMAIN UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS FROM THE WEST TODAY AS LOW PRESSURES RIDES ALONG IT. SE WINDS WILL INCREASE...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN WATERS...AND SPEEDS MAY APPROACH 25 KTS OVER THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET FOR A TIME TODAY. WAVE WATCH III BUILDS SEAS TO 5 FEET ACROSS THESE WATERS. AFTER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL ISSUE SCA FOR TODAY AND THROUGH THE EVENING FOR THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS. OTHERWISE...THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSES ACROSS THE OCEAN ZONES TONIGHT...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY. SUB SCA EXPECTED. WITH GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS IN PLACE...CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO STAY BELOW SCA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... SCATTERED COVERAGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. EXPECT ANY FLASH OR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WILL BE ISOLATED. ANY HEAVIER SHOWER OR TSTM COULD PRODUCE A QUICK HALF INCH...BUT WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT QPF IS NOT ANTICIPATED FROM LATE THIS MORNING ON. WITH EACH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ESPECIALLY ANY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST...PRECIPITABLE WATERS COINCIDING WITH THESE ARE FORECAST TO BE AT LEAST 1.5 INCHES. THEREFORE...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH ANY OF THIS CONVECTION. ANY CONVECTION SUSTAINED...WOULD LEAD TO URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ350. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
747 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG IT...PASSING SOUTH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE EXITING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO BETTER MATCH RADAR REFLECTIVITY TRENDS AS MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS MOVE EAST ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT. POPS TREND FROM CHANCE FOR WESTERN AREAS TO CATEGORICAL FOR MOST EASTERN AREAS. CHALLENGING TEMP FORECAST TODAY AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES WESTERN ZONES AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG IT. BY LATE DAY...THIS LOW TRACKS TOWARD NJ WITH FRONT JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. ALOFT...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES. WAA AND PLENTY OF LIFT MOVES EAST...AS DOES HIGH COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS. POPS QUICKLY LOWER AS MESOSCALE MODELS ALONG WITH NWP MODELS INDICATE LOWER COVERAGE AFTER 13Z. LATEST HRRR SEEMS QUITE REASONABLE. ANY SHOWERS COULD BE HEAVY AS PW CONTENT REMAINS QUITE HIGH...AROUND 2 INCHES. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TOWARD WESTERN LOCALES WHERE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE REALIZED DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONGER TSTMS MAY DEVELOP LATE DAY. HOWEVER...IF FRONT LOCATION IS SLIGHTLY WEST OF FORECAST...INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH DUE TO MORE OF AN EASTERLY FLOW...MARINE INFLUENCE. LARGE MAX TEMP SPREAD TODAY WITH EASTERLY FLOW KEEPING SE CT AND LI MUCH COOLER THAN NE NJ. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S SE CT AND ERN LI...TO THE MIDDLE 80S ACROSS NE NJ. FOLLOWED A MOS BLEND WITH AN ATTEMPT TO MATCH SREF MEANS. MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR OCEAN BEACHES. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... FORECAST AREA REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL BE TOUGH TO TIME AS THEY TRACK OVER THE RIDGE. SFC LOW LOOKS TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...WITH NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NW TUESDAY. ECMWF LOOKS TO BE A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN FASTER GFS AND SLOWER NAM. ANY EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL LIKELY PASS EAST OR WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA...AND SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THEN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY. AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY REMAINS IN QUESTION...BUT WINDS ALOFT COULD SUPPORT SOME STRONGER STORMS. MOS BLEND FOR TEMPS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A BLEND WILL PROVIDE BEST GUESS AVERAGE WHERE DISPARITIES ARE NOTED IN THE MOS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... ALOFT...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY JET STREAM STAYS JUST NORTH OF THE REGION FOR REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE MID LEVELS...THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM A LOOSE HEIGHT GRADIENT WITH THE LOCAL AREA BEING ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A LONGWAVE RIDGE TO A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW THAT EXHIBITS A TIGHTER HEIGHT GRADIENT. THE RIDGE WILL BE MORE FLAT AND SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTHERN U.S. WITH ONE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAVING PASSED TO THE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...A LESS AMPLIFIED ONE WILL BE MOVING IN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A STRONGER ONE PASSING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE HIGH CENTER MOVES RIGHT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY. IT WILL THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...MOVING ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. IN TERMS OF WEATHER...DRYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A DRY DAY TO FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...THE PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY FROM VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES TO VALUES APPROXIMATELY BETWEEN 0.6 AND 1 INCH...CONVEYING A MUCH LESS HUMID AIRMASS. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT HOWEVER. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY LIMITED WITH GENERALLY COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS SO NO THUNDERSTORMS WERE MENTIONED WITH THE FORECAST BUT THE PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST DO INCREASE TO NEAR 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES. DRY AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS THEREAFTER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM AS HUMIDITY LEVELS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A VERY CHALLENGING AVIATION WEATHER DAY IN THE NY METRO AND VICINITY. LOW PRESSURE ALONG A WARM FRONT WILL TRACK DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN TURN EAST TRACKING SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE MOVING EAST OVER EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND CT. GENERALLY IFR TO START...CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MARGINAL TO VFR FOR THE NY METRO AND HUDSON VALLEY BY LATE MORNING. IFR HOLDS ON FOR LONG ISLAND AND CT. CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVER NJ THIS AFTERNOON THAT SPREADS INTO THE NY METRO. TOO EARLY FOR SPECIFIC...SO USED VCTS. LARGE UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES AROUND WIND DIRECTION FCST FOR THE NY METRO THIS AFTN. TIMING OF SHIFT TO NE COULD BE OFF SEVERAL HOURS. BUT DO EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT SWITCH TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE NY METRO SOME TIME LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IFR TO PERHAPS LIFR OVERNIGHT. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH FCST IN TERMS OF TIMING. WIND SHIFT TO NE EXPECTED SOMETIME DURING LATE AFTN DEPARTURE BANK. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH FCST IN TERMS OF TIMING. WIND SHIFT TO NE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTN...BUT COULD BE AS EARLY AS 18Z. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH FCST IN TERMS OF TIMING. WIND DIRECTION THIS AFTN COULD STAY MORE SOUTHERLY...OR EVEN SOUTHEAST. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH FCST IN TERMS OF TIMING. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH FCST IN TERMS OF TIMING. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF THE ONSET OF IFR. COULD BE LATER THAN FCST. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .TUE-TUE NGT...IFR TO LOCALLY LIFR IN THE EARLY MORNING...BECOMING VFR. MVFR IN AFTN SHRA/TSRA. .WED...VFR. .THU-FRI...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA. && .MARINE... A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS FROM THE WEST TODAY AS LOW PRESSURES RIDES ALONG IT. SE WINDS WILL INCREASE...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN WATERS...AND SPEEDS MAY APPROACH 25 KTS OVER THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET FOR A TIME TODAY. WAVE WATCH III BUILDS SEAS TO 5 FEET ACROSS THESE WATERS. AFTER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL ISSUE SCA FOR TODAY AND THROUGH THE EVENING FOR THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS. OTHERWISE...THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSES ACROSS THE OCEAN ZONES TONIGHT...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY. SUB SCA EXPECTED. WITH GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS IN PLACE...CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO STAY BELOW SCA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... ONCE THIS INITIAL AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDERSTORMS MOVES EAST...EXPECT SCATTERED COVERAGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. FEEL ANY FLASH OR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WILL BE ISOLATED. ANY HEAVIER SHOWER OR TSTM COULD PRODUCE A QUICK HALF INCH...BUT WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT QPF IS NOT ANTICIPATED FROM LATE THIS MORNING ON. WITH EACH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ESPECIALLY ANY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST...PRECIPITABLE WATERS COINCIDING WITH THESE ARE FORECAST TO BE AT LEAST 1.5 INCHES. THEREFORE...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH ANY OF THIS CONVECTION. ANY CONVECTION SUSTAINED...WOULD LEAD TO URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ350. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JM/PW NEAR TERM...PW/JM SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...JM AVIATION...TONGUE MARINE...JM/PW HYDROLOGY...JM/PW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
623 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG IT...PASSING SOUTH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE EXITING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... CHALLENGING TEMP FORECAST TODAY AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES WESTERN ZONES AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG IT. BY LATE DAY...THIS LOW TRACKS TOWARD NJ WITH FRONT JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. ALOFT...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES. WAA AND PLENTY OF LIFT MOVES EAST...AS DOES HIGH COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS. POPS QUICKLY LOWER AS MESOSCALE MODELS ALONG WITH NWP MODELS INDICATE LOWER COVERAGE AFTER 13Z. LATEST HRRR SEEMS QUITE REASONABLE. ANY SHOWERS COULD BE HEAVY AS PW CONTENT REMAINS QUITE HIGH...AROUND 2 INCHES. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TOWARD WESTERN LOCALES WHERE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE REALIZED DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONGER TSTMS MAY DEVELOP LATE DAY. HOWEVER...IF FRONT LOCATION IS SLIGHTLY WEST OF FORECAST...INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH DUE TO MORE OF AN EASTERLY FLOW...MARINE INFLUENCE. LARGE MAX TEMP SPREAD TODAY WITH EASTERLY FLOW KEEPING SE CT AND LI MUCH COOLER THAN NE NJ. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S SE CT AND ERN LI...TO THE MIDDLE 80S ACROSS NE NJ. FOLLOWED A MOS BLEND WITH AN ATTEMPT TO MATCH SREF MEANS. MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR OCEAN BEACHES. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... FORECAST AREA REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL BE TOUGH TO TIME AS THEY TRACK OVER THE RIDGE. SFC LOW LOOKS TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...WITH NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NW TUESDAY. ECMWF LOOKS TO BE A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN FASTER GFS AND SLOWER NAM. ANY EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL LIKELY PASS EAST OR WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA...AND SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THEN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY. AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY REMAINS IN QUESTION...BUT WINDS ALOFT COULD SUPPORT SOME STRONGER STORMS. MOS BLEND FOR TEMPS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A BLEND WILL PROVIDE BEST GUESS AVERAGE WHERE DISPARITIES ARE NOTED IN THE MOS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... ALOFT...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY JET STREAM STAYS JUST NORTH OF THE REGION FOR REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE MID LEVELS...THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM A LOOSE HEIGHT GRADIENT WITH THE LOCAL AREA BEING ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A LONGWAVE RIDGE TO A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW THAT EXHIBITS A TIGHTER HEIGHT GRADIENT. THE RIDGE WILL BE MORE FLAT AND SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTHERN U.S. WITH ONE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAVING PASSED TO THE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...A LESS AMPLIFIED ONE WILL BE MOVING IN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A STRONGER ONE PASSING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE HIGH CENTER MOVES RIGHT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY. IT WILL THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...MOVING ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. IN TERMS OF WEATHER...DRYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A DRY DAY TO FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...THE PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY FROM VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES TO VALUES APPROXIMATELY BETWEEN 0.6 AND 1 INCH...CONVEYING A MUCH LESS HUMID AIRMASS. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT HOWEVER. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY LIMITED WITH GENERALLY COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS SO NO THUNDERSTORMS WERE MENTIONED WITH THE FORECAST BUT THE PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST DO INCREASE TO NEAR 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES. DRY AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS THEREAFTER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM AS HUMIDITY LEVELS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN. && .AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A VERY CHALLENGING AVIATION WEATHER DAY IN THE NY METRO AND VICINITY. LOW PRESSURE ALONG A WARM FRONT WILL TRACK DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN TURN EAST TRACKING SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM ARE MOVING EAST OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. IN IT`S WAKE...EXPECT IFR CIGS FOR MOST OF THE REGION. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MARGINAL OR PERHAPS VFR FOR THE NY METRO AND HUDSON VALLEY BY LATE MORNING. IFR HOLDS ON FOR LONG ISLAND AND CT. CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVER NJ THIS AFTERNOON. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE COVERAGE. LARGE UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES AROUND WIND DIRECTION FCST FOR THE NY METRO THIS AFTN. TIMING OF SHIFT TO NE COULD BE OFF SEVERAL HOURS...BUT CERTAINLY DO EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT SWITCH TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE NY METRO SOME TIME LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IFR TO PERHAPS LIFR OVERNIGHT. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH FCST IN TERMS OF TIMING. WIND SHIFT TO NE EXPECTED SOMETIME DURING LATE AFTN DEPARTURE BANK. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH FCST IN TERMS OF TIMING. WIND SHIFT TO NE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTN...BUT COULD BE AS EARLY AS 18Z. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH FCST IN TERMS OF TIMING. WIND DIRECTION THIS AFTN COULD STAY MORE SOUTHERLY. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH FCST IN TERMS OF TIMING. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH FCST IN TERMS OF TIMING. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF THE ONSET OF IFR. COULD BE LATER THAN FCST. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .TUE-TUE NGT...IFR TO LOCALLY LIFR IN THE MORNING...BECOMING VFR. MVFR IN POSSIBLE AFTN SHRA/TSRA. .WED...VFR. .THU-FRI...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA. && .MARINE... A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS FROM THE WEST TODAY AS LOW PRESSURES RIDES ALONG IT. SE WINDS WILL INCREASE...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN WATERS...AND SPEEDS MAY APPROACH 25 KTS OVER THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET FOR A TIME TODAY. WAVE WATCH III BUILDS SEAS TO 5 FEET ACROSS THESE WATERS. AFTER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL ISSUE SCA FOR TODAY AND THROUGH THE EVENING FOR THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS. OTHERWISE...THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSES ACROSS THE OCEAN ZONES TONIGHT...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY. SUB SCA EXPECTED. WITH GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS IN PLACE...CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO STAY BELOW SCA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... ONCE THIS INITIAL AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDERSTORMS MOVES EAST...EXPECT SCATTERED COVERAGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. FEEL ANY FLASH OR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WILL BE ISOLATED. ANY HEAVIER SHOWER OR TSTM COULD PRODUCE A QUICK HALF INCH...BUT WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT QPF IS NOT ANTICIPATED FROM LATE THIS MORNING ON. WITH EACH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ESPECIALLY ANY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST...PRECIPITABLE WATERS COINCIDING WITH THESE ARE FORECAST TO BE AT LEAST 1.5 INCHES. THEREFORE...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH ANY OF THIS CONVECTION. ANY CONVECTION SUSTAINED...WOULD LEAD TO URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ350. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JM/PW NEAR TERM...PW SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...JM AVIATION...TONGUE MARINE...JM/PW HYDROLOGY...JM/PW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
126 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THE RAIN WILL COME DOWN MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES. ONCE AGAIN THE ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SO THE THREAT FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS BOUNDARY A LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 110 AM EDT...AREAS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPANDING NE INTO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH AREAS OF LIGHTER RAIN FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH. THUS FAR...IT APPEARS THAT THE DEEPER CONVECTION ACROSS SW PA/EASTERN OH HAS REDUCED SOME OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...AS THIS CONVECTION WEAKENS AND TRANSLATES FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH DAYBREAK...THE PROSPECTS FOR AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS OUR REGION WILL INCREASE. SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER COULD ALSO OCCUR AS SHOWALTER INDICES ARE FORECAST TO DIP INTO THE 0 TO -1 C RANGE THROUGH 12Z/MON. THE LATEST 04Z 3KM HRRR SHOWS RAINFALL SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER OUR AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS PWATS SURGE OVER 1.50 INCHES ACROSS OUR AREA THANKS TO THE PERSISTENT S-SW FLOW ALOFT AND THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS START TO SHIFT TOWARDS OUR REGION. WITH THIS EXPECTED RAINFALL...WE ARE ANTICIPATING A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS MAY OCCUR. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING CAN NOT BE RULE OUT ESPECIALLY OVER AN URBANIZED LOCATION. NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME SINCE DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE FOR A WIDER FLASH FLOOD THREAT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS THE REGION BUT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH. THE THREAT FOR THE MODERATE TO HEAVY WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE MORNING...HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. MODERATE SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY SO GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS. IT WILL BE RATHER COOL MONDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 60S TO MID 70S DUE THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND THE STORMS. EXPECTING A LULL IN ACTIVITY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION...HOWEVER A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. IT WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS IN MID 70S TO LOWER 80S TUESDAY AND PWATS WILL STILL BE RATHER HIGH OVER 1.5 INCHES. IN ADDITION...MODERATE SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT SO SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER AS THE LOCAL AREA IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. HAVE THREAT HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MOSTLY INCLEMENT WEATHER WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...SHOULD BE DRY. HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY GETS QUICKLY DISPLACED BY A WARM FRONT AND SHOWERS FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY TWO COLD FRONTS THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY... MARKING THE START OF A SHORT DRY REPRIEVE. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES AGAIN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY...BRINGING MORE SHOWERS AND HUMIDITY. WEDNESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S...COOLING TO THE AROUND 70 TO UPPER 70S RANGE THURSDAY...AND SLOWLY MODERATING INTO THE MID 70S TO MID 80S RANGE BY SUNDAY. LOWS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE ANYWHERE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH FRIDAY NIGHT BEING COOLEST. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT VFR CONDITIONS DESPITE THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. LOOKING UPSTREAM...THE NEAREST IFR CONDITIONS WERE ALONG OR WEST OF I81. SO WE WILL RETAIN VFR CONDITIONS AS THE DOMINANT GROUP WITH A TEMPO FOR IFR CONDITIONS AS THE HEAVIER SHOWERS TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR A PROLONGED IFR CONDITIONS WOULD BE AT KPSF DUE TO HIGHER LOCATION AND PRECIP MAY HOLD ON LONGER THAN THOSE TAFS IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...MOST OF THE PRECIP WOULD BE SCATTERED AT BEST AS WE WILL CONTINUE WITH VCSH AT THIS TIME. CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN MVFR AS LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER HIGH AND BELOW THE DRIER AIR ALOFT. WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT SPEEDS 6KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z/TUE. OUTLOOK... MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA..TSRA EARLY IN THE EVENING. WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THE RAIN WILL COME DOWN MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES. ONCE AGAIN THE ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SO THE THREAT FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS BOUNDARY A LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION. MORE WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. && .HYDROLOGY... ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A WARM FRONT WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY. WITH PWAT VALUES WILL BE RISING TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES SO MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AT TIMES. ANTICIPATING A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS MAY OCCUR. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING CAN NOT BE RULE OUT ESPECIALLY OVER AN URBANIZED LOCATION. NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME SINCE DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE FOR A WIDER FLASH FLOOD THREAT. CONTINUE TO HAVE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING THREAT HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND ADDED MENTION OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD. THE THREAT WILL CONTINUE THREAT FOR CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY HOWEVER IT WILL BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DAY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...IAA NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS/KL SHORT TERM...IAA LONG TERM...ELH AVIATION...FRUGIS/BGM FIRE WEATHER...IAA HYDROLOGY...IAA FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
102 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THE RAIN WILL COME DOWN MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES. ONCE AGAIN THE ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SO THE THREAT FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS BOUNDARY A LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 110 AM EDT...AREAS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPANDING NE INTO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH AREAS OF LIGHTER RAIN FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH. THUS FAR...IT APPEARS THAT THE DEEPER CONVECTION ACROSS SW PA/EASTERN OH HAS REDUCED SOME OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...AS THIS CONVECTION WEAKENS AND TRANSLATES FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH DAYBREAK...THE PROSPECTS FOR AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS OUR REGION WILL INCREASE. SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER COULD ALSO OCCUR AS SHOWALTER INDICES ARE FORECAST TO DIP INTO THE 0 TO -1 C RANGE THROUGH 12Z/MON. THE LATEST 04Z 3KM HRRR SHOWS RAINFALL SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER OUR AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS PWATS SURGE OVER 1.50 INCHES ACROSS OUR AREA THANKS TO THE PERSISTENT S-SW FLOW ALOFT AND THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS START TO SHIFT TOWARDS OUR REGION. WITH THIS EXPECTED RAINFALL...WE ARE ANTICIPATING A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS MAY OCCUR. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING CAN NOT BE RULE OUT ESPECIALLY OVER AN URBANIZED LOCATION. NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME SINCE DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE FOR A WIDER FLASH FLOOD THREAT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS THE REGION BUT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH. THE THREAT FOR THE MODERATE TO HEAVY WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE MORNING...HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. MODERATE SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY SO GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS. IT WILL BE RATHER COOL MONDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 60S TO MID 70S DUE THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND THE STORMS. EXPECTING A LULL IN ACTIVITY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION...HOWEVER A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. IT WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS IN MID 70S TO LOWER 80S TUESDAY AND PWATS WILL STILL BE RATHER HIGH OVER 1.5 INCHES. IN ADDITION...MODERATE SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT SO SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER AS THE LOCAL AREA IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. HAVE THREAT HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MOSTLY INCLEMENT WEATHER WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...SHOULD BE DRY. HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY GETS QUICKLY DISPLACED BY A WARM FRONT AND SHOWERS FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY TWO COLD FRONTS THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY... MARKING THE START OF A SHORT DRY REPRIEVE. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES AGAIN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY...BRINGING MORE SHOWERS AND HUMIDITY. WEDNESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S...COOLING TO THE AROUND 70 TO UPPER 70S RANGE THURSDAY...AND SLOWLY MODERATING INTO THE MID 70S TO MID 80S RANGE BY SUNDAY. LOWS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE ANYWHERE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH FRIDAY NIGHT BEING COOLEST. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR...BUT WILL BE LOWERING TO MVFR AT TIMES LATER THIS EVENING DUE TO SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE HEAVIER AFTER 06Z...SO WILL EXPECT MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS FOR LATE TONIGHT WITHIN THESE HEAVIER SHOWERS. LTG LOOKS RATHER LIMITED AT THIS TIME...SO NOT ENOUGH EXPECTED COVERAGE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME...BUT CAN/T TOTALLY RULE OUT A RUMBLE SOMEWHERE ONE OF THAT TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL BECOME SE...BUT ONLY AROUND 5 KTS OR SO. SHOWERS WILL START TO TAPER OFF ON MONDAY MORNING...ALLOWING FOR MVFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT FROM A S-SE DIRECTION AT 5-10 KTS. SHOWERS SHOULD END BY THE EARLY AFTN HOURS...BUT LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY KEEP MVFR CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. OUTLOOK... MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA..TSRA EARLY IN THE EVENING. WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THE RAIN WILL COME DOWN MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES. ONCE AGAIN THE ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SO THE THREAT FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS BOUNDARY A LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION. MORE WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. && .HYDROLOGY... ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A WARM FRONT WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY. WITH PWAT VALUES WILL BE RISING TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES SO MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AT TIMES. ANTICIPATING A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS MAY OCCUR. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING CAN NOT BE RULE OUT ESPECIALLY OVER AN URBANIZED LOCATION. NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME SINCE DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE FOR A WIDER FLASH FLOOD THREAT. CONTINUE TO HAVE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING THREAT HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND ADDED MENTION OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD. THE THREAT WILL CONTINUE THREAT FOR CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY HOWEVER IT WILL BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DAY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...IAA NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS/KL SHORT TERM...IAA LONG TERM...ELH AVIATION...FRUGIS FIRE WEATHER...IAA HYDROLOGY...IAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 .UPDATE... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS MAINLY THE GULF WATERS THIS EVENING. LATEST HRRR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS STREAMING WEST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE NIGHT UNDER THE EASTERLY FLOW. THEREFORE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH 06Z. ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP AND WEATHER GRIDS TO ADJUST FOR THE LATEST TRENDING. OTHERWISE...THE ONGOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 747 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015/ AVIATION... SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH IN NAPLES BY 1Z...THEN DRY TAFS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS CANT BE RULED OUT BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE 30 PERCENT OR LESS. EAST WIND 10 KT PREVAIL...EXCEPT FOR KAPF WHERE CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL TURN WESTERLY WED AS GULF BREEZE KICKS IN. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015/ DISCUSSION... ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON UNDER EASTERLY FLOW. BELIEVE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND GULF COASTAL AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS A WEAK GULF BREEZE PUSHES INLAND. THE MAIN THREATS TO THESE STORMS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. LATEST HI- RES MODELS SHOW THIS ACTIVITY DISSIPATING DURING THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN A PERSISTENT DEEP EASTERLY FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH STRONG UPPER RIDGING CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. BY THE LATE WEEK PERIOD AND INTO THE WEEKEND...THIS RIDGE MAY SLIDE A BIT TO THE EAST AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL BEGIN TO PUSH TO THE EAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. REGARDLESS...EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA RESULTING IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST EACH DAY. MARINE... AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND OF AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH SEAS OF 2 FEET OR LESS OVER BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 78 91 79 91 / 10 10 10 10 FORT LAUDERDALE 79 89 80 89 / 10 10 30 20 MIAMI 78 91 79 89 / 10 10 20 20 NAPLES 76 91 76 91 / 10 20 30 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...10/CD AVIATION...23/SK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
1148 AM MDT MON JUN 15 2015 .UPDATE...INCREASED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...INTENSIFIED THUNDERSTORM WORDING WITH UPDATED SPC SLIGHT RISK ADDITION. HAVE TOUCHED VERY LITTLE BEYOND TUE NIGHT AS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DURING THAT PERIOD HAS CHANGED LITTLE. HAVE ALREADY HAD GUSTS TO 50 MPH IN THE BEAR LAKE REGION FROM THE MORNING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAS ALREADY PASSED. UPDATES FORTHCOMING. MESSICK .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 AM MDT MON JUN 15 2015/ DISCUSSION...ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH A WEAK WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON. EXPECT TO SEE A SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES ONSHORE LATER TODAY. SURFACE PROGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A LOW LIFTING OUT OF NEVADA AND ACROSS UTAH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORECAST MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG AND MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUPPORT SPC MRGL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE MAIN THREAT TO BE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WITH SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. HRRR REFLECTIVITY FORECAST INITIATES CONVECTION AROUND THE SODA SPRINGS AREA SHORTLY AFTER NOON AND EXPANDS IT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HIGHLANDS THEREAFTER. THE NAM WANTS TO START CONVECTION BEFORE SUNRISE THIS MORNING AND THE GFS IS GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT. KEPT SLIGHT POPS FOR SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS THIS MORNING AND EXPANDING IT OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TOMORROW OVER THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS...BUT A DRIER FLOW WILL KICK IN FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK KEEPING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH DRY AND WARM WEATHER CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. HINSBERGER $$ AVIATION...AN UPPER TROF MOVES THRU THE PAC NW TODAY...RESULTING IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS BY LATE AFTN AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVE. SOME TSTMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THRU TONIGHT. HEDGES FIRE WEATHER...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE PAC NW TODAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS. THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS MAINLY DRY AND WARM...WITH WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. HEDGES && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
234 AM MDT MON JUN 15 2015 .DISCUSSION...ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH A WEAK WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON. EXPECT TO SEE A SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES ONSHORE LATER TODAY. SURFACE PROGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A LOW LIFTING OUT OF NEVADA AND ACROSS UTAH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORECAST MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG AND MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUPPORT SPC MRGL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE MAIN THREAT TO BE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WITH SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. HRRR REFLECTIVITY FORECAST INITIATES CONVECTION AROUND THE SODA SPRINGS AREA SHORTLY AFTER NOON AND EXPANDS IT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HIGHLANDS THEREAFTER. THE NAM WANTS TO START CONVECTION BEFORE SUNRISE THIS MORNING AND THE GFS IS GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT. KEPT SLIGHT POPS FOR SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS THIS MORNING AND EXPANDING IT OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TOMORROW OVER THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS...BUT A DRIER FLOW WILL KICK IN FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK KEEPING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH DRY AND WARM WEATHER CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. HINSBERGER $$ .AVIATION...AN UPPER TROF MOVES THRU THE PAC NW TODAY...RESULTING IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS BY LATE AFTN AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVE. SOME TSTMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THRU TONIGHT. HEDGES && .FIRE WEATHER...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE PAC NW TODAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS. THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS MAINLY DRY AND WARM...WITH WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. HEDGES && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
905 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 THE 01Z/8PM SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A SLIGHT MOVEMENT OF THE STATIONARY FRONT TO THE NORTH INTO OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAINFALL SOUTH OF I-70, THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL CAUSE SHOWERS TO OVERSPREAD AREAS SOUTH OF I-72 OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE FRONT MAY REACH AS FAR NORTH AS I-74 BY 12Z. HRRR AND RAP OUTPUT INDICATE MOST OF THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN S OF I-72 IN THE SIDE OF THE FRONT WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO 70F. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE, BASED ON THE WETTING RAINS THIS EVENING AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. CLOUD COVER WILL THICKEN NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT, KEEPING LOWS ON THE MILD SIDE WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS. LIGHT FOG WILL INCREASE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT WHERE WINDS BECOME LIGHT LATER TONIGHT. UPDATES THIS EVENING WERE DONE TO THE POP AND WEATHER GRIDS TO SLOW DOWN THE NORTHWARD PUSH OF RAIN, WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS. UPDATED INFO IS ALREADY AVAILABLE. && .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 AFTERNOON SURFACE DATA SHOWS BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF IL. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...UNSTABLE AIR WITH MUCAPE OF 3000 CONTINUES TO FEED FROM MO AND TO THE SOUTH (AS SEEN IN THE MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY). MODELS MOVE THE PCPN NORTH AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTH WITH THE APPROACHING ND UPPER WAVE. THE RESULT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH HEAVY RAIN PRODUCTION AND A CONTINUED FLASH FLOOD THREAT OVERNIGHT. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 WET WEATHER AND POTENTIAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE IT STILL APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A DRY DAY BEFORE MONDAY, THERE ARE STILL PERIODS THAT APPEAR FAVORED FOR MORE WIDESPREAD & HEAVIER RAINFALL, AS WELL AS VICE VERSA. THE BIGGEST FLY IN THE OINTMENT REMAINS THE DISPOSITION OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL. THERE IS STILL A NOTABLE SPREAD IN THE TIMING/TRACK OF THE SYSTEM, PRECIPITATION SPREAD AROUND THE REMNANT CIRCULATION, AS WELL WITH INTRA-MODEL RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. THE MOST NOTABLE MODEL TREND THAT IS AGREED UPON HAS BEEN FOR A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE REMNANTS, WITH SOME OF THE SLOWEST SOLUTIONS (12 ECMWF FOR EXAMPLE) KEEPING THE ASSOCIATED RAIN THREAT AROUND WELL INTO SATURDAY. THE GENERALLY W-E ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STALLED OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WILL LIFT BACK NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY PUSHING EAST INTO THE PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BOOST SHOWER/STORM CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL THE WAVE PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN THE FORECAST ARE SHOULD SEE A RELATIVE LULL IN THE RAIN THREAT, LIKE TODAY, UNTIL THE REMNANTS OF BOB APPROACH AND EVENTUALLY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE BEST FORCING AND RAINFALL THREAT WITH THE REMNANTS ARRIVING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF AROUND 2" OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL THE TROPICAL REMNANTS DEPART SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ANYWHERE A SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM GETS GOING AND/OR WHERE NUMEROUS RAIN EVENTS OCCUR. ON THE UPSIDE, THE TROPICAL-LIKE AIRMASS AND ASSOCIATED WEAK LAPSE RATE, AS WELL AS MODEST SHEAR PROFILES, ARE NOT CONDUCIVE TO MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ANOTHER BRIEF LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL FOLLOW THE REMNANTS OF BILL UNTIL A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT, COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL BE ABLE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA, LIKELY RESULTING IN A DRY START TO THE NEXT WORK WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 THE BAND OF RAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT, AFFECTING THE TERMINAL SITES WITH STEADY RAINS AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORMS. IFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT, AS THE PRECIPITATION MAKES A MORE PROMINENT NORTHWARD PUSH. LIFR IS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS, AND WE LEFT OVC004 IN MOST TAF SITES FOR NOW. VIS WILL DROP TO IFR, WITH 2SM BR DEVELOPING IN ADDITION TO THE -RA/-TSRA. AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW, WHILE THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN/STORMS FOR A FEW HOURS, CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE IFR/LIFR LEVELS UNTIL 16Z, BEFORE IMPROVING TO MVFR DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE TERMINAL SITES WILL BRING A RETURN TO STORM CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON, WHICH WE ACKNOWLEDGED WITH A VCTS FOR NOW. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR ILZ052-054>057- 061>063-066>068-071>073. && $$ UPDATE...SHIMON SHORT TERM...GOETSCH LONG TERM...BAK AVIATION...SHIMON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
354 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 A COLD FRONT OVER WISCONSIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT CAUSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER CENTRAL INDIANA TUESDAY... CONFINING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA AND THEN LIFT BACK NORTH ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN BACK TO THE AREA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S... WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH HAS BEEN STNRY FOR SOME TIME TO OUR NORTH WAS BEGINNING TO MAKE SEWD PROGRESS TODAY IN RESPONSE TO A SHRTWV MOVG ACROSS ONTARIO MERGING WITH SECOND SYSTEM LIFTING NE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA WITH PWATS AROUND 2" HAS DESTABILIZED IN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY ALLOWING NUMEROUS TSTMS TO DEVELOP. SOME BACKBUILDING/TRAINING CELLS OCRG ATTM AS SUGGESTED BY RAP 5-10KT UPWIND PROPAGATION VECTORS. LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS SCT-NUMEROUS STORMS WILL CONT LATE THIS AFTN AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MORE WIDESPREAD TSTMS FORMING ALONG THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTN AND MOVG THROUGH OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. THUS... STILL APPEARS TO BE A GOOD SETUP FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS OUR AREA SO FFA ISSUED EARLIER TODAY WILL CONT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. CDFNT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE STALLING OUT ON TUE. SOME LINGERING POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS PSBL IN THE MORNING AND WK INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW A FEW MORE TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN... BUT OVERALL APPEARS TO BE A DAY TO DRY OUT. WK CAA BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE 60S TONIGHT WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH THE L-M80S ON TUE. && .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 WET PATTERN AND FLOODING CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A CONSISTENT SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FEED PUMPS PWAT VALUES AOA 2.0" INTO THE CWA. ONLY DAY OF RELIEF IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD MAY BE FRIDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SLIDES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND TRIES TO SLIDE OUR PESKY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD. SOME PRECIP IS STILL POSSIBLE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY...BUT THE HIGHLY EFFICIENT WARM CLOUD PROCESSES WILL CEASE NORTH OF THE FRONT. THE REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY IN THE WESTERN GULF ADVECT INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND RETURN THE MUGGY CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHERN LAKES. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THE TROPICAL SYSTEM MAY PHASE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND DEVELOP A SUB 1000MB SURFACE REFLECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE GREAT LAKES. A DECENT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MAY BE JUST WHAT WE NEED TO FINALLY SHUNT THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND USHER IN DRIER CONDITIONS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 118 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 TSTMS EXPECTED TO CONT TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF CDFNT OVER WI/IA THIS AFTN. THIS FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SE ACROSS NRN INDIANA TONIGHT... ACCOMPANIED BY AN AREA OF TSRA. STRATUS/BR EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING BEFORE CLEARING BY LATE MORNING. THUS... CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY MVFR UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034. MI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MIZ077>081. OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR OHZ001-002-004-005- 015-016-024-025. LM...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JT SHORT TERM...JT LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL AVIATION...JT VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
129 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 A COLD FRONT OVER WISCONSIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL...POSSIBLY CAUSING FLASH FLOODING. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER CENTRAL INDIANA TUESDAY... CONFINING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA AND THEN LIFT BACK NORTH ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN BACK TO THE AREA. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. && .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1139 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY/TNGT WITH LATEST RAP ANALYSIS INDICATING PWAT APCHG 2" AND UPWIND PROPAGATION VECTOR ONLY 5-10KT ACROSS OUR AREA. A SLOW MOVG CDFNT WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA TNGT. WIDESPREAD TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTN AND CONT AT LEAST INTO THIS EVE AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. PORTIONS OF THE CWA ALREADY HAVE SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS AND HIGH RIVER/STREAM FLOWS... BUT EVEN AREAS WHICH HAVEN`T RECEIVED THAT MUCH RAIN RECENTLY COULD BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING THIS AFTN/EVE DUE TO EXPECTED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES FOR UP TO A FEW HOURS. THUS HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THIS AFTN/EVE. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 MIDLEVEL VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE DRAWN ENE TODAY BY DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY LOW. GIVEN TROPICAL AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE COURTESY OF INTRACTABLE SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE...THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONVECTION SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD TODAY DUE TO LEVEL OF SYNOPTIC SUPPORT AND RICH THETA-E ENVIRONMENT. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT HIGH END LIKELY POPS. ONLY QUESTION IS EXACT TIMING/EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES. SUBTLE MIDLEVEL PERTURBATIONS RIPPLING THROUGH THE AREA IN A VERY MOIST (SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN LOWER 70S) AND UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY ALLOW CONVECTION TO BLOSSOM BY LATE MORNING...EVEN MORE SO THAN CURRENTLY BEING SEEN. EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO THEN CHURN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR A SECONDARY UPTICK IN COVERAGE DURING THE EVENING WITH MAIN FRONTAL PASSAGE. IF EARLY INITIATION IS TRUE (AS EXPECTED)...THIS WILL PUT A DAMPER ON SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE A PATHETIC 5 G/KG WITH A COMPLETELY MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ANY APPRECIABLE LEVELS OF INSTABILITY WILL DEPEND ON SUSTAINED SURFACE DIABATIC HEATING...A TALL ORDER GIVEN EXPECTED EARLY ONSET OF CONVECTION AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. NEVERTHELESS...WOULDNT TOTALLY LET GUARD DOWN BECAUSE THE WIND/SHEAR PROFILES ARE BETTER THAN YESTERDAY THANKS TO APPROACHING TROUGH. 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES WILL BE AROUND 30-35 KTS WITH 0-3KM VALUES 20-30 KTS BY THE EVENING. THIS COULD SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS/LINES IF INSTABILITY ENDS UP HIGHER THAN EXPECTED. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN. SET UP WITH RESPECT TO HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL REMAINS THE SAME AS IT HAS BEEN FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. PW VALUES REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES...SOLIDLY IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER WILL ALSO FAVOR EFFICIENT COLLISION/COALESCENSE PROCESSES AND MBE VELOCITIES REMAIN LOW...FAVORING POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING/BACKBUILDING OF STORMS. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IF/WHERE SUSTAINED CONVECTION SETS UP...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. BIGGEST THREAT FOR FLOODING WILL PROBABLY BE IN THE EVENING WHEN MAIN FRONT APPROACHES. CONVECTION CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY WIND DOWN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA...THOUGH PROBABLY WONT FULLY CLEAR OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES BEFORE 12Z. && .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 CONTD SIMILAR FCST WITH CONSISTENCY IN TACT IN ATTEMPT TO BETTER DELINEATE CONVECTIVE OPPORTUNITIES AMID WELL BROADBRUSHED MULTI MODEL BLEND. IN WAKE OF ANTICIPATED DY1 CONVECTION OVERTURNING ATMOS AND SUBSEQUENT SFC BNDRY PUSH TOWARDS OHIO RIVER VALLEY HAVE MUTED CHCS TUE/TUE NIGHT...RELEGATING LOW CHC POPS TO SRN CWA WITH NOTABLY STRONG N/S LLVL THETA-E GRADIENT. NEXT STRONG MID TROP CIRCULATION /PRESENTLY OFF NRN CAL COAST/ TO EJECT EWD INTO CENTRAL/HIGH PLAINS TUE EVE AND WRN GRTLKS BY MIDDAY WED. INFLUX OF AT LEAST MID/ULVL MSTR STREAMING FROM ANTICIPATED TROPICAL CYCLONE REMNANTS ALONG WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE EJECTION SLATED FOR MIDWEEK. WITH SRN GRTLKS POISED ON NRN PERIPHERY OF INCRSGLY RAPID DEEP LAYER SWRLY FLOW AS DAY PROGRESSES...PRECIP EFFICIENCIES WILL BE ENHANCED FOR ADDNL HEAVY RAFL POTNL...WELL COVERED IN ESF/HWO. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO RAMP CONSIDERABLY...EXPECTED CAPE PROFILES TO BE RATHER TALL/THIN OWING TO EXTRM MOISTURE AND NOT PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE FOR STRONG/ SEVERE...THOUGH MESOSCALE DETAILS YET TO BEAR OUT. FINAL LIFTOUT OF LAGGED EXTRATROPICAL VORTEX INTO MID MS VLY FRI AFTN...LENDING CONTD CONVECTIVE CHCS INTO WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 118 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 TSTMS EXPECTED TO CONT TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF CDFNT OVER WI/IA THIS AFTN. THIS FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SE ACROSS NRN INDIANA TONIGHT... ACCOMPANIED BY AN AREA OF TSRA. STRATUS/BR EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING BEFORE CLEARING BY LATE MORNING. THUS... CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY MVFR UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR INZ003>009-012>018- 020-022>027-032>034. MI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MIZ077>081. OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ001-002-004-005- 015-016-024-025. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JT SYNOPSIS...AGD/JT SHORT TERM...AGD LONG TERM...MURPHY AVIATION...JT VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1149 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AND A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. THIS RAIN WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT WITH A BRIEF BREAK EXPECTED ON TUESDAY BEFORE MORE RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. && .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1139 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY/TNGT WITH LATEST RAP ANALYSIS INDICATING PWAT APCHG 2" AND UPWIND PROPAGATION VECTOR ONLY 5-10KT ACROSS OUR AREA. A SLOW MOVG CDFNT WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA TNGT. WIDESPREAD TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTN AND CONT AT LEAST INTO THIS EVE AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. PORTIONS OF THE CWA ALREADY HAVE SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS AND HIGH RIVER/STREAM FLOWS... BUT EVEN AREAS WHICH HAVEN`T RECEIVED THAT MUCH RAIN RECENTLY COULD BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING THIS AFTN/EVE DUE TO EXPECTED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES FOR UP TO A FEW HOURS. THUS HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THIS AFTN/EVE. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 MIDLEVEL VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE DRAWN ENE TODAY BY DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY LOW. GIVEN TROPICAL AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE COURTESY OF INTRACTABLE SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE...THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONVECTION SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD TODAY DUE TO LEVEL OF SYNOPTIC SUPPORT AND RICH THETA-E ENVIRONMENT. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT HIGH END LIKELY POPS. ONLY QUESTION IS EXACT TIMING/EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES. SUBTLE MIDLEVEL PERTURBATIONS RIPPLING THROUGH THE AREA IN A VERY MOIST (SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN LOWER 70S) AND UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY ALLOW CONVECTION TO BLOSSOM BY LATE MORNING...EVEN MORE SO THAN CURRENTLY BEING SEEN. EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO THEN CHURN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR A SECONDARY UPTICK IN COVERAGE DURING THE EVENING WITH MAIN FRONTAL PASSAGE. IF EARLY INITIATION IS TRUE (AS EXPECTED)...THIS WILL PUT A DAMPER ON SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE A PATHETIC 5 G/KG WITH A COMPLETELY MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ANY APPRECIABLE LEVELS OF INSTABILITY WILL DEPEND ON SUSTAINED SURFACE DIABATIC HEATING...A TALL ORDER GIVEN EXPECTED EARLY ONSET OF CONVECTION AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. NEVERTHELESS...WOULDNT TOTALLY LET GUARD DOWN BECAUSE THE WIND/SHEAR PROFILES ARE BETTER THAN YESTERDAY THANKS TO APPROACHING TROUGH. 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES WILL BE AROUND 30-35 KTS WITH 0-3KM VALUES 20-30 KTS BY THE EVENING. THIS COULD SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS/LINES IF INSTABILITY ENDS UP HIGHER THAN EXPECTED. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN. SET UP WITH RESPECT TO HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL REMAINS THE SAME AS IT HAS BEEN FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. PW VALUES REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES...SOLIDLY IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER WILL ALSO FAVOR EFFICIENT COLLISION/COALESCENSE PROCESSES AND MBE VELOCITIES REMAIN LOW...FAVORING POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING/BACKBUILDING OF STORMS. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IF/WHERE SUSTAINED CONVECTION SETS UP...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. BIGGEST THREAT FOR FLOODING WILL PROBABLY BE IN THE EVENING WHEN MAIN FRONT APPROACHES. CONVECTION CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY WIND DOWN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA...THOUGH PROBABLY WONT FULLY CLEAR OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES BEFORE 12Z. && .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 CONTD SIMILAR FCST WITH CONSISTENCY IN TACT IN ATTEMPT TO BETTER DELINEATE CONVECTIVE OPPORTUNITIES AMID WELL BROADBRUSHED MULTI MODEL BLEND. IN WAKE OF ANTICIPATED DY1 CONVECTION OVERTURNING ATMOS AND SUBSEQUENT SFC BNDRY PUSH TOWARDS OHIO RIVER VALLEY HAVE MUTED CHCS TUE/TUE NIGHT...RELEGATING LOW CHC POPS TO SRN CWA WITH NOTABLY STRONG N/S LLVL THETA-E GRADIENT. NEXT STRONG MID TROP CIRCULATION /PRESENTLY OFF NRN CAL COAST/ TO EJECT EWD INTO CENTRAL/HIGH PLAINS TUE EVE AND WRN GRTLKS BY MIDDAY WED. INFLUX OF AT LEAST MID/ULVL MSTR STREAMING FROM ANTICIPATED TROPICAL CYCLONE REMNANTS ALONG WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE EJECTION SLATED FOR MIDWEEK. WITH SRN GRTLKS POISED ON NRN PERIPHERY OF INCRSGLY RAPID DEEP LAYER SWRLY FLOW AS DAY PROGRESSES...PRECIP EFFICIENCIES WILL BE ENHANCED FOR ADDNL HEAVY RAFL POTNL...WELL COVERED IN ESF/HWO. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO RAMP CONSIDERABLY...EXPECTED CAPE PROFILES TO BE RATHER TALL/THIN OWING TO EXTRM MOISTURE AND NOT PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE FOR STRONG/ SEVERE...THOUGH MESOSCALE DETAILS YET TO BEAR OUT. FINAL LIFTOUT OF LAGGED EXTRATROPICAL VORTEX INTO MID MS VLY FRI AFTN...LENDING CONTD CONVECTIVE CHCS INTO WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1139 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR INZ003>009-012>018- 020-022>027-032>034. MI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MIZ077>081. OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ001-002-004-005- 015-016-024-025. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JT SYNOPSIS...AGD SHORT TERM...AGD LONG TERM...MURPHY AVIATION...AGD VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
701 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 PLEASANT DAY IN STORE ACROSS MOST OF THE DVN CWA WITH AN EAST WIND BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA...COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. PRECIPITABLE WATERS WERE LESS THAN AN INCH AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. HOWEVER...IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES DEWS WERE IN THE MID 60S AND PWATS A BIT OVER AN INCH. FARTHER SOUTH THE REALLY HIGH PWATS WERE LURKING WITH OVER 2 INCHES AS YOU GET DOWN TOWARDS ST. LOUIS. TO THE NORTH DEWPOINTS WERE ONLY IN THE 40S OVER PORTIONS OF MN EASTWARD TO MI. 3 PM TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S IN THE CWA WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...OUR FAR SOUTH WAS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A LARGER CLOUD SHIELD THAT WAS COVERING THE MID MS VALLEY. THIS WAS AHEAD OF LANDFALLING TROPICAL STORM BILL IN SE TX. MOSAIC MIDWEST RADAR LOOPS INDICATE A LINE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...FROM SE KS TO CENTRAL MO AND INTO SOUTHERN IL. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE SHORT TERM. TONIGHT...DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO OUR NORTHEAST CWA ON EAST WINDS WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 40S FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT. IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA DEWS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 60S. OPERATIONAL MODELS INCLUDING THE HI-RES MESO HRRR INDICATE WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT DEVELOPING IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AS A LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES A BIT. THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH FORCING AND INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SO I WILL HAVE HIGH END CHANCE POPS. DRIER AIR FARTHER NORTH SHOULD DISSIPATE ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY TRYING TO WORK NORTHWARD. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH AT MOST LOCATIONS IN OUR FAR SOUTH. OUR FAR SOUTH COULD GET LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. CLOUD COVER WILL PROGRESS NORTHWARD AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALSO SHIFTS A BIT NORTHWARD. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN FAR NW IL TO THE MID 60S FAR SOUTH. WEDNESDAY...WEAK LOW LEVEL JET VEERS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY WITH THE FORCING GRADUALLY PUSHING AWAY FROM THE DVN CWA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DRY DAY IN OUR NORTHERN CWA WITH CHANCE POPS IN OUR FAR SOUTH CLOSER TO THE NEARLY STALLED FRONT WELL TO OUR SOUTH. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE AREA REMAINS HIGHLY VULNERABLE TO CONTINUED RIVER FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING DUE TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST WEEK. FROM MID TO LATE WEEK...THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL MOVING INTO THE TX GULF COAST...WHICH MODEL CONSENSUS NOW HAS CURVING NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THEN TRACKING E-NE ACROSS CENTRAL MO INTO SOUTHERN IL FRI AND SAT...WHICH WOULD SPARE THE FORECAST AREA FROM HEAVY RAINFALL. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA WED NIGHT WILL WARRANT LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT QPF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS THEN LAYS OUT A BOUNDARY FROM NORTHERN IL NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND RETURNING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REQUIRE KEEPING AT LEAST LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PASSING LOW THROUGHOUT. OVER THE REST OF THE AREA...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES IS SHOWN SENDING A BACKDOOR COOL FRONT AND A SURGE OF E-NE WINDS THU NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING IN LOWER HUMIDITY AND THEN LIMIT HIGHS TO THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 FRI...AFTER ANOTHER DAY OF LOWER 80S THU. SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...ONCE THE WEAKENING REMNANTS OF BILL PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A PREFRONTAL STRONG W-SW SURGE OF VERY WARM...MOIST AIR OUT AHEAD FEEDING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING BACK HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND THETAE ADVECTION ALOFT THAT MAY FUEL AN OVERNIGHT MCS WITH THE PASSING FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT...WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST ARE PLACED. THIS WILL ALSO BE THE NEXT GREATEST THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH SHOULD FOLLOW SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY WEATHER OR LOW PRECIPITATION EVENTS THAT WILL ALLOW SURFACE CONDITIONS TO DRY SOME AND RIVERS TO BEGIN RECEDING. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL FEATURE A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH THE REGION ALONG THE EDGE OF THE STRONGER WESTERLIES WITH WARM AIR BUILDING OVER THE PLAINS AND AVAILABLE GULF MOISTURE. THIS RING OF FIRE TYPE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT PERIODIC MCS ACTIVITY OVER...OR POSSIBLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 MAINLY VFR LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD UP ACRS THE REGION AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES, ALTHOUGH AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80 WILL EVENTUALLY HAVE MVFR CIGS FROM MIDNIGHT ON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL TRY TO PUSH UP OUT OF MO AND TOWARD THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AFTER 10 PM. BUT THEY WILL HAVE TO BATTLE EASTERLY LLVL DRIER FLOW AND MAY HAVE TROUBLE GETTING MUCH PAST THE BRL AREA. BESIDES THE AREAS OF RAIN...LOWER MVFR CIGS WILL SETTLE IN ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 THROUGH LATE MORNING. SOME MVFR LEVEL FOG ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE VCNTY OF BRL IN HIGHER SFC DPT POOL. THEN VEERING WINDS TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING ACRS MN...WILL HELP LIFT ANY LINGERING CIGS BACK TO VFR LEVELS WED AFTERNOON. ..12.. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HAASE SHORT TERM...HAASE LONG TERM...SHEETS AVIATION...12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1248 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 .SHORT TERM /TODAY/... ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN THE FOCUS TODAY WITH THE MAIN THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO ISOLATED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING. COLD FRONT HAS MEANDERED INTO NORTHWEST IOWA AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE STATE TODAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 305-320 K SURFACE PERSISTS INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THERE IS A BROAD AND WEAK AREA OF FORCING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND EXPECTING THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 2 INCHES AND THE WARM LAYER CLOUD DEPTHS REMAIN IN THE 3800 TO 4100 METERS. THE UPWIND PROPAGATION VECTOR OVER CENTRAL IOWA REMAIN WEAK AND THUS THESE STORMS/SHOWERS WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE AND CONTINUE TO BE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. HOWEVER...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS ISOLATED AND SHORT-LIVED IN NATURE AND HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE WITH ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ATTM. THAT BEING SAID...THERE HAS ALREADY BEEN SOME FLASH FLOODING ISSUES IN ANKENY DUE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND EXPECT THE VERY ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL TO REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY OVER CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN IOWA...MAINLY OVER URBAN AREAS. THE LATEST HRRR (15.07Z) HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON OVERALL RADAR TRENDS...BUT THINK IT IS SLIGHTLY TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN TODAY. LEANED TOWARD A RUC/HRRR BLEND FOR POPS UNTIL 18Z AND THEN NAM12 THIS AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 BY THIS EVENING THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED FORCING WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. LINGERING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE PRIOR TO 06Z SOUTH WITH MOST OF THE AREA DONE WITH THE RAINFALL. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NEAR THE IOWA MISSOURI BORDER WHERE SOME RAIN MAY LINGER ON TUESDAY. FEEL THAT MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE SOUTH OF THE BORDER...BUT HAVE INCLUDED A SMALL AREA ALONG THE BORDER AS FRONT MAY STALL AND DRIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH DURING THE DAY. AS THE HIGH RETREATS EAST ON TUESDAY...RETURN FLOW OVER THE ROCKIES WILL DIRECT ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND MN THROUGH 06Z. THIS WILL INDUCE A SFC LOW AND INCREASE THUNDER CHANCES NORTHWEST TOWARD MORNING WITH SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE. THIS NEXT SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION BY 12Z THURSDAY AS REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL NOT VARY MUCH WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. BY FRIDAY A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM IS STILL ANTICIPATED TO FORM OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH WESTERLIES ALOFT INCREASING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE AIRMASS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL STILL BE HAVE ABUNDANT AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER FORECAST OVER 2 INCHES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WILL BE OVER 13KFT. WITH THE SYSTEM INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE AREA...LIKELY THAT HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EACH DAY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPS TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY BACK INTO THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...POTENTIAL FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY. ONCE THE MAIN FRONT PASSES...THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ON SUNDAY...THOUGH THEY WILL BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS AS NORTHWEST WINDS AND DRIER AIR WORKS BACK INTO THE STATE. MONDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. && .AVIATION...15/18Z ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 AREA OF SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS THROUGH THE STATE. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA THIS AFTERNOON EMBEDDED IN THE AREA OF SHOWERS. MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POCKETS OF MVFR/IFR FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...THEN CONDITIONS SHOULD GO VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. WIND TO BE PRIMARILY NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...SHIFTING AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. MONITORING FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND POTENTIALLY A FEW RIVERS GOING ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE TODAY OR TUESDAY. RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN IMPRESSIVE...WITH STREET FLOODING REPORTED IN ANKENY ABOUT 3 AM CDT THIS MORNING...WITH UP TO A HALF DOZEN INTERSECTIONS CLOSED AND A FEW CARS STRANDED. SEVERAL ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF RAIN MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA YET THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HEADLINES... THOUGH MORE LOCALIZED POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL SO FAR HAVE LIMITED THE COVERAGE OF PROBLEM AREAS. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK LONG TERM...REV AVIATION...BEERENDS HYDROLOGY...REV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
316 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WHILE A MID-UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTION OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH WAVE...WILL CONTINUE PUSHING INTO SOUTHEASTERN KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTHWEST TUESDAY MORNING...THEN WASHING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. ANOMALOUSLY RICH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIRMASS (~1.75 IN.) WILL PERSIST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS AND WILL HAVE RELATIVELY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES IN THOSE AREAS...WHERE WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS POSSIBLE UNDER WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT. LATEST SPC HRRR VERSION PUSHES CURRENT CONVECTION OUT OF SOUTHEAST KS BY MID EVENING...WITH A SIGNFICANT LULL THEREAFTER. WOULD THINK EVEN IF THIS HAPPENS...THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHEAR AXIS EMANATING FROM WEST TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD...COULD IGNITE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ~4KM OR GREATER AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS FAVOR LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. IN ADDITION...SOUNDING PROFILES WOULD ALSO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED WET MICROBURST OR TWO. WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: WITH REGARD TO THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE HEADING INTO SOUTH TEXAS LATE TONIGHT...THE GFS...ECMWF...AND NAM-WRF OFFER VASTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. THIS IS NOT SURPRISING GIVEN THE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD IMPACT FAR SOUTHEAST KS SOMETIME LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IF THE GFS AND NAM ARE MORE CORRECT...ALTHOUGH THE NAM APPEARS TOO FAST WITH THE NORTH-NORTHEAST MOVEMENT. THE ECMWF INDICATES ANY IMPACTS TO SOUTHEAST KS WOULD NOT COME UNTIL FRIDAY- FRIDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...OVERALL CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/TRACK OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS LOW AT THIS JUNCTURE. NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES BUT HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST DURING THIS ENTIRE PERIOD. JMC .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 THE REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ARE PROGGED TO PUSH WELL EAST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND...WHILE A FAIRLY STRONG/AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE ECMWF WAS STRONGER WITH THE AMPLIFCATION...DRIVING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. IT HAS AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE GFS DID NOT AMPLIFY THE SHORTWAVE AS MUCH...AND AS A RESULT BRINGS THE FRONT TO CENTRAL KS NEAR I-70 BEFORE STALLING THE BOUNDARY. A COMPROMISE OF THESE SOLUTIONS WOULD BRING THE FRONT INTO THE HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES RATHER WARM...ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE IN THE FORECAST...COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED. JMC && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS THIS AFTERNOON...AND THROUGH KCNU DURING THE NIGHT. HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE AT KCNU...WITH RAIN SHOWERS FLIRTING WITH KICT AT THE START OF THE FORECAST. VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOIST/UPSLOPE AIRMASS NORTH OF FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MORE LOW CLOUDS...PROBABLY MVFR...PSBLY IFR...TOWARDS DAYBREAK AT MOST LOCATIONS. -HOWERTON && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 68 83 69 86 / 40 50 20 20 HUTCHINSON 66 83 67 87 / 30 20 20 20 NEWTON 67 82 68 85 / 40 40 20 20 ELDORADO 68 82 69 85 / 50 60 30 40 WINFIELD-KWLD 69 83 70 85 / 50 60 40 40 RUSSELL 63 83 66 88 / 20 10 20 10 GREAT BEND 64 83 66 88 / 20 20 20 10 SALINA 66 83 68 87 / 20 20 20 20 MCPHERSON 66 83 68 87 / 30 20 20 20 COFFEYVILLE 70 82 71 82 / 70 70 60 60 CHANUTE 69 82 70 83 / 70 60 60 60 IOLA 69 82 69 83 / 70 60 50 60 PARSONS-KPPF 70 82 71 83 / 70 70 60 60 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
122 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1101 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 BASED ON DEVELOPING CU FIELD...WOULD ANTICIPATE THE FIRST SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY TO DEVELOP OVER OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. LIKE YESTERDAY...COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPARSE. TEMPS WILL APPROACH RECORDS WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES SIMILAR TO OR A TAD WARMER THAN WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY. ALL IS HANDLED WELL IN INHERITED FORECAST AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED BEYOND SOME FRESHENING OF NEAR TERM GRIDS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO PRIMARILY REMOVE THE PATCHY FOG FROM THE GRIDS AND ZFP. ALSO...TWEAKED THE T AND TD ONES PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESHENED SET OF ZONES. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH ALONG WITH A WEST TO EAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOUND OVER NORTHERN OHIO. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS NIGHT HAS BEEN CONFINED TO THE AN AREA JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT ROUGHLY THROUGH CENTRAL OHIO WITH CELL MOVEMENT TO THE EAST. THE CLOUDS ARE CO-LOCATED WITH THE CONVECTION LEAVING EAST KENTUCKY MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS HAS HELPED A MILD RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT TO SET UP...RUNNING ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 7 DEGREES...VARYING FROM THE MID 70S ON THE RIDGES TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS. MEANWHILE...DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND THE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WOULD EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS THROUGH DAWN...BUT NOT MUCH HAS SHOWN UP YET IN THE OBS... FOG CHANNEL...OR WEB CAMS. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THEY ALL KEEP A MODERATELY STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE NATION. FOR THE MOST PART...THIS WILL KEEP CONVECTION TO A MINIMUM UNDER ITS AEGIS. HOWEVER...ENERGY WILL TOP THIS RIDGE EARLY TUESDAY AND PUSH THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BRINGING OUR BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY FOR OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FOLLOWED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 GUIDANCE MOST CLOSELY FOR WX DETAILS. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE JUST ABOUT A REPEAT OF SUNDAY WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY TODAY...THOUGH A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON... GENERALLY NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED ON TUESDAY AS THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS PASSING BY TO THE NORTH...INDUCED BY THE EAST TO WEST MOVING MID LEVEL ENERGY PACKETS...MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO BREACH THE RIDGE AND SFC HIGH WITH OUTFLOW GENERATED STORMS...MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES. THIS CONVECTION WILL TEMPER THE HEAT A BIT WHERE IT OCCURS...BUT 90S WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE FOR PLACES THAT MISS OUT...LIKE THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY...IN ALL PROBABILITY. THE ORGANIZED NATURE OF THESE STORMS WOULD ALSO REPRESENT A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS SHOULD A CLUSTER MAKE IT INTO THE CWA ON TUESDAY. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS CONCERN IN THE FORTHCOMING HWO. OTHERWISE...THERE SHOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT DROP OFF IN ANY ACTIVITY TONIGHT WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG TOWARD DAWN AN EXPECTED ELEMENT. PER THE USUAL...T/TD/WINDS WERE STARTED OFF FROM THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SUPERBLEND. DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOWS TONIGHT FOR TERRAIN DISTINCTIONS BUT ALSO RAISED HIGHS TODAY A NOTCH...SIMILAR TO SUNDAY/S HIGHS. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO THE SURPRISINGLY SIMILAR MAV AND MET MOS NUMBERS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTING OFF WITH A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN PARKED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS FINALLY BREAKING DOWN AND MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. AS THE RIDGE DOES THIS...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS THE REGION. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE THEN PROGGED TO FORM AND PROPAGATE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE ONE MAJOR ELEMENT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THE LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK AND THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND...WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM COMBINES ITS ENERGY AND MOISTURE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. IF THIS WERE TO HAPPEN...AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE SUGGESTING...A WIDE SWATH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE COULD SPREAD ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SCENARIO WOULD MAKE FOR A VERY WET END TO THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE THE FORECAST ISSUE OF MOST INTEREST IN THE EXTENDED...AND WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY TO SEE HOW EVERYTHING PANS OUT BY WEEKS END. IN THE MEANTIME...HOWEVER...HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT SOME SORT OF BOUNDARY WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS OR VERY NEAR THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THAT BEING SAID...DECIDED TO GO WITH A GENERAL 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY AND NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BEING THE PEAK TIME FOR CONVECTION. THE QUESTION MARK FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT A SLUG OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS PRESENT TO FUEL FURTHER SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY. IF THIS OCCURS...WE COULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND SUNDAY. AS IT STANDS...THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH THE FRONT TO SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK AS WELL. DAILY HIGHS OVERALL SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA. SOME LOCATIONS ON WEDNESDAY COULD EVEN TOP 90 DEGREES AS THE RIDGE FIRST BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S ON AVERAGE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP...FAVORING OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES INCLUDING KSYM. THESE STORMS WILL REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE...BUT BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WHERE THEY OCCUR. AS HAS BEEN THE PATTERN LATELY...THESE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING ONLY TO REFIRE BY MIDDAY TUESDAY AGAIN FAVORING OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. ASIDE FROM THE STORMS...SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL AGAIN DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AND IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE SOME RAIN. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...ABE SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...ABE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1101 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1101 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 BASED ON DEVELOPING CU FIELD...WOULD ANTICIPATE THE FIRST SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY TO DEVELOP OVER OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ELSEHWERE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. LIKE YESTERDAY...COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPARSE. TEMPS WILL APPROACH RECORDS WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES SIMILAR TO OR A TAD WARMER THAN WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY. ALL IS HANDLED WELL IN INHERITED FORECAST AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED BEYOND SOME FRESHENING OF NEAR TERM GRIDS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO PRIMARILY REMOVE THE PATCHY FOG FROM THE GRIDS AND ZFP. ALSO...TWEAKED THE T AND TD ONES PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESHENED SET OF ZONES. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH ALONG WITH A WEST TO EAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOUND OVER NORTHERN OHIO. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS NIGHT HAS BEEN CONFINED TO THE AN AREA JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT ROUGHLY THROUGH CENTRAL OHIO WITH CELL MOVEMENT TO THE EAST. THE CLOUDS ARE CO-LOCATED WITH THE CONVECTION LEAVING EAST KENTUCKY MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS HAS HELPED A MILD RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT TO SET UP...RUNNING ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 7 DEGREES...VARYING FROM THE MID 70S ON THE RIDGES TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS. MEANWHILE...DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND THE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WOULD EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS THROUGH DAWN...BUT NOT MUCH HAS SHOWN UP YET IN THE OBS... FOG CHANNEL...OR WEB CAMS. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THEY ALL KEEP A MODERATELY STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE NATION. FOR THE MOST PART...THIS WILL KEEP CONVECTION TO A MINIMUM UNDER ITS AEGIS. HOWEVER...ENERGY WILL TOP THIS RIDGE EARLY TUESDAY AND PUSH THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BRINGING OUR BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY FOR OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FOLLOWED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 GUIDANCE MOST CLOSELY FOR WX DETAILS. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE JUST ABOUT A REPEAT OF SUNDAY WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY TODAY...THOUGH A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON... GENERALLY NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED ON TUESDAY AS THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS PASSING BY TO THE NORTH...INDUCED BY THE EAST TO WEST MOVING MID LEVEL ENERGY PACKETS...MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO BREACH THE RIDGE AND SFC HIGH WITH OUTFLOW GENERATED STORMS...MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES. THIS CONVECTION WILL TEMPER THE HEAT A BIT WHERE IT OCCURS...BUT 90S WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE FOR PLACES THAT MISS OUT...LIKE THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY...IN ALL PROBABILITY. THE ORGANIZED NATURE OF THESE STORMS WOULD ALSO REPRESENT A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS SHOULD A CLUSTER MAKE IT INTO THE CWA ON TUESDAY. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS CONCERN IN THE FORTHCOMING HWO. OTHERWISE...THERE SHOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT DROP OFF IN ANY ACTIVITY TONIGHT WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG TOWARD DAWN AN EXPECTED ELEMENT. PER THE USUAL...T/TD/WINDS WERE STARTED OFF FROM THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SUPERBLEND. DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOWS TONIGHT FOR TERRAIN DISTINCTIONS BUT ALSO RAISED HIGHS TODAY A NOTCH...SIMILAR TO SUNDAY/S HIGHS. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO THE SURPRISINGLY SIMILAR MAV AND MET MOS NUMBERS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTING OFF WITH A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN PARKED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS FINALLY BREAKING DOWN AND MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. AS THE RIDGE DOES THIS...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS THE REGION. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE THEN PROGGED TO FORM AND PROPAGATE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE ONE MAJOR ELEMENT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THE LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK AND THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND...WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM COMBINES ITS ENERGY AND MOISTURE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. IF THIS WERE TO HAPPEN...AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE SUGGESTING...A WIDE SWATH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE COULD SPREAD ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SCENARIO WOULD MAKE FOR A VERY WET END TO THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE THE FORECAST ISSUE OF MOST INTEREST IN THE EXTENDED...AND WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY TO SEE HOW EVERYTHING PANS OUT BY WEEKS END. IN THE MEANTIME...HOWEVER...HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT SOME SORT OF BOUNDARY WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS OR VERY NEAR THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THAT BEING SAID...DECIDED TO GO WITH A GENERAL 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY AND NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BEING THE PEAK TIME FOR CONVECTION. THE QUESTION MARK FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT A SLUG OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS PRESENT TO FUEL FURTHER SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY. IF THIS OCCURS...WE COULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND SUNDAY. AS IT STANDS...THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH THE FRONT TO SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK AS WELL. DAILY HIGHS OVERALL SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA. SOME LOCATIONS ON WEDNESDAY COULD EVEN TOP 90 DEGREES AS THE RIDGE FIRST BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S ON AVERAGE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 800 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 SOME SCT TO BKN LOW VFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY AS A THICKER CLOUD DECK MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH...MAINLY ACROSS KSYM AND POSSIBLY DOWN TO KSJS. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE AT SYM THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE INCLUDED A VCTS IN ITS TAF. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE THE RULE INTO MID MORNING BEFORE PICKING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS LATER IN THE DAY AT MOST SPOTS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS RETURN TONIGHT WITH ANY FOG AGAIN CONTAINED IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS AWAY FOR ANY TAF SITES. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...ABE SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
755 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO PRIMARILY REMOVE THE PATCHY FOG FROM THE GRIDS AND ZFP. ALSO...TWEAKED THE T AND TD ONES PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESHENED SET OF ZONES. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH ALONG WITH A WEST TO EAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOUND OVER NORTHERN OHIO. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS NIGHT HAS BEEN CONFINED TO THE AN AREA JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT ROUGHLY THROUGH CENTRAL OHIO WITH CELL MOVEMENT TO THE EAST. THE CLOUDS ARE CO-LOCATED WITH THE CONVECTION LEAVING EAST KENTUCKY MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS HAS HELPED A MILD RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT TO SET UP...RUNNING ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 7 DEGREES...VARYING FROM THE MID 70S ON THE RIDGES TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS. MEANWHILE...DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND THE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WOULD EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS THROUGH DAWN...BUT NOT MUCH HAS SHOWN UP YET IN THE OBS... FOG CHANNEL...OR WEB CAMS. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THEY ALL KEEP A MODERATELY STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE NATION. FOR THE MOST PART...THIS WILL KEEP CONVECTION TO A MINIMUM UNDER ITS AEGIS. HOWEVER...ENERGY WILL TOP THIS RIDGE EARLY TUESDAY AND PUSH THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BRINGING OUR BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY FOR OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FOLLOWED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 GUIDANCE MOST CLOSELY FOR WX DETAILS. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE JUST ABOUT A REPEAT OF SUNDAY WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY TODAY...THOUGH A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON... GENERALLY NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED ON TUESDAY AS THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS PASSING BY TO THE NORTH...INDUCED BY THE EAST TO WEST MOVING MID LEVEL ENERGY PACKETS...MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO BREACH THE RIDGE AND SFC HIGH WITH OUTFLOW GENERATED STORMS...MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES. THIS CONVECTION WILL TEMPER THE HEAT A BIT WHERE IT OCCURS...BUT 90S WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE FOR PLACES THAT MISS OUT...LIKE THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY...IN ALL PROBABILITY. THE ORGANIZED NATURE OF THESE STORMS WOULD ALSO REPRESENT A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS SHOULD A CLUSTER MAKE IT INTO THE CWA ON TUESDAY. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS CONCERN IN THE FORTHCOMING HWO. OTHERWISE...THERE SHOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT DROP OFF IN ANY ACTIVITY TONIGHT WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG TOWARD DAWN AN EXPECTED ELEMENT. PER THE USUAL...T/TD/WINDS WERE STARTED OFF FROM THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SUPERBLEND. DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOWS TONIGHT FOR TERRAIN DISTINCTIONS BUT ALSO RAISED HIGHS TODAY A NOTCH...SIMILAR TO SUNDAY/S HIGHS. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO THE SURPRISINGLY SIMILAR MAV AND MET MOS NUMBERS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTING OFF WITH A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN PARKED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS FINALLY BREAKING DOWN AND MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. AS THE RIDGE DOES THIS...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS THE REGION. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE THEN PROGGED TO FORM AND PROPAGATE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE ONE MAJOR ELEMENT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THE LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK AND THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND...WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM COMBINES ITS ENERGY AND MOISTURE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. IF THIS WERE TO HAPPEN...AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE SUGGESTING...A WIDE SWATH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE COULD SPREAD ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SCENARIO WOULD MAKE FOR A VERY WET END TO THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE THE FORECAST ISSUE OF MOST INTEREST IN THE EXTENDED...AND WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY TO SEE HOW EVERYTHING PANS OUT BY WEEKS END. IN THE MEANTIME...HOWEVER...HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT SOME SORT OF BOUNDARY WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS OR VERY NEAR THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THAT BEING SAID...DECIDED TO GO WITH A GENERAL 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY AND NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BEING THE PEAK TIME FOR CONVECTION. THE QUESTION MARK FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT A SLUG OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS PRESENT TO FUEL FURTHER SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY. IF THIS OCCURS...WE COULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND SUNDAY. AS IT STANDS...THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH THE FRONT TO SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK AS WELL. DAILY HIGHS OVERALL SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA. SOME LOCATIONS ON WEDNESDAY COULD EVEN TOP 90 DEGREES AS THE RIDGE FIRST BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S ON AVERAGE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 800 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 SOME SCT TO BKN LOW VFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY AS A THICKER CLOUD DECK MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH...MAINLY ACROSS KSYM AND POSSIBLY DOWN TO KSJS. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE AT SYM THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE INCLUDED A VCTS IN ITS TAF. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE THE RULE INTO MID MORNING BEFORE PICKING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS LATER IN THE DAY AT MOST SPOTS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS RETURN TONIGHT WITH ANY FOG AGAIN CONTAINED IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS AWAY FOR ANY TAF SITES. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
350 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH ALONG WITH A WEST TO EAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOUND OVER NORTHERN OHIO. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS NIGHT HAS BEEN CONFINED TO THE AN AREA JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT ROUGHLY THROUGH CENTRAL OHIO WITH CELL MOVEMENT TO THE EAST. THE CLOUDS ARE CO-LOCATED WITH THE CONVECTION LEAVING EAST KENTUCKY MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS HAS HELPED A MILD RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT TO SET UP...RUNNING ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 7 DEGREES...VARYING FROM THE MID 70S ON THE RIDGES TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS. MEANWHILE...DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND THE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WOULD EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS THROUGH DAWN...BUT NOT MUCH HAS SHOWN UP YET IN THE OBS... FOG CHANNEL...OR WEB CAMS. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THEY ALL KEEP A MODERATELY STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE NATION. FOR THE MOST PART...THIS WILL KEEP CONVECTION TO A MINIMUM UNDER ITS AEGIS. HOWEVER...ENERGY WILL TOP THIS RIDGE EARLY TUESDAY AND PUSH THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BRINGING OUR BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY FOR OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FOLLOWED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 GUIDANCE MOST CLOSELY FOR WX DETAILS. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE JUST ABOUT A REPEAT OF SUNDAY WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY TODAY...THOUGH A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON... GENERALLY NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED ON TUESDAY AS THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS PASSING BY TO THE NORTH...INDUCED BY THE EAST TO WEST MOVING MID LEVEL ENERGY PACKETS...MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO BREACH THE RIDGE AND SFC HIGH WITH OUTFLOW GENERATED STORMS...MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES. THIS CONVECTION WILL TEMPER THE HEAT A BIT WHERE IT OCCURS...BUT 90S WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE FOR PLACES THAT MISS OUT...LIKE THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY...IN ALL PROBABILITY. THE ORGANIZED NATURE OF THESE STORMS WOULD ALSO REPRESENT A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS SHOULD A CLUSTER MAKE IT INTO THE CWA ON TUESDAY. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS CONCERN IN THE FORTHCOMING HWO. OTHERWISE...THERE SHOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT DROP OFF IN ANY ACTIVITY TONIGHT WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG TOWARD DAWN AN EXPECTED ELEMENT. PER THE USUAL...T/TD/WINDS WERE STARTED OFF FROM THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SUPERBLEND. DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOWS TONIGHT FOR TERRAIN DISTINCTIONS BUT ALSO RAISED HIGHS TODAY A NOTCH...SIMILAR TO SUNDAY/S HIGHS. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO THE SURPRISINGLY SIMILAR MAV AND MET MOS NUMBERS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTING OFF WITH A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN PARKED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS FINALLY BREAKING DOWN AND MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. AS THE RIDGE DOES THIS...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS THE REGION. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE THEN PROGGED TO FORM AND PROPAGATE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE ONE MAJOR ELEMENT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THE LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK AND THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND...WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM COMBINES ITS ENERGY AND MOISTURE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. IF THIS WERE TO HAPPEN...AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE SUGGESTING...A WIDE SWATH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE COULD SPREAD ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SCENARIO WOULD MAKE FOR A VERY WET END TO THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE THE FORECAST ISSUE OF MOST INTEREST IN THE EXTENDED...AND WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY TO SEE HOW EVERYTHING PANS OUT BY WEEKS END. IN THE MEANTIME...HOWEVER...HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT SOME SORT OF BOUNDARY WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS OR VERY NEAR THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THAT BEING SAID...DECIDED TO GO WITH A GENERAL 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY AND NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BEING THE PEAK TIME FOR CONVECTION. THE QUESTION MARK FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT A SLUG OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS PRESENT TO FUEL FURTHER SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY. IF THIS OCCURS...WE COULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND SUNDAY. AS IT STANDS...THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH THE FRONT TO SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK AS WELL. DAILY HIGHS OVERALL SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA. SOME LOCATIONS ON WEDNESDAY COULD EVEN TOP 90 DEGREES AS THE RIDGE FIRST BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S ON AVERAGE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 WHILE FOG IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS NIGHT...IT SHOULD BE CONTAINED IN THE VALLEYS WITH TAF SITES REMAINING UNAFFECTED. SOME SCT TO BKN BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS A THICKER CLOUD DECK MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH...MAINLY ACROSS KSYM AND POSSIBLY DOWN TO KSJS. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE AT SYM MONDAY AFTERNOON SO HAVE INCLUDED A VCTS IN ITS TAF FOR THIS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE THE RULE INTO MID MORNING MONDAY BEFORE PICKING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS LATER IN THE DAY AT MOST SPOTS. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
215 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 THE SHOWERS OVER NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY HAVE DIED OUT WITH THE ONLY SUSTAINABLE ONES ARE FOUND WELL NORTH OF THE STATE IN CENTRAL OHIO ALONG A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 KEEPS THINGS QUIET THROUGH THE CWA INTO THE MORNING HOURS. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE DROPPED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ALSO...TWEAKED T/TD/SKY GRIDS PER THE LATEST SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE...OBS...AND TRENDS. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1043 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015 SHOWERS HAVE FINALLY DIMINISHED ACROSS THE JKL CWA. OTHERWISE...FORECAST SEEMS TO BE VERY WELL ON TRACK. INCREASED CLOUDS SLIGHTLY THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE AREA OF CLOUDS UPSTREAM THAT WILL LIKELY MAKE IT INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THICKENING AS WE HEAD INTO THE MORNING HOURS. LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS ONCE AGAIN TO MAKE SURE THE NEAR TERM GRIDS WELL REFLECT THE ONGOING CONDITIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE INCOMING CLOUD COVER VS. FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 741 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015 A FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL GOING STRONG ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KY...NEAR THE TN AND VIRGINIA BORDER. AS SUCH...ENDED UP INCREASING POPS BACK UP TO SLIGHT CHANCES IN THIS AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS UNTIL LOSS OF SUNLIGHT ALLOWS THE LINGERING INSTABILITY TO WEAKEN AND THESE SHOWERS DIMINISH. ALSO LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS TO MAKE SURE THE NEAR TERM GRIDS WELL REFLECT THE ONGOING CONDITIONS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015 DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF STOUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. ONE OR TWO OF THESE MAY GROW ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHTNING SO WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. NOTHING REALLY CHANGES FOR TOMORROW SO A REPEAT OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED...WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE EARLIER DEVELOPMENT AND A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WHICH WILL BE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE CORE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN REACHING AROUND 90 MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 90S. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015 A RATHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INITIALLY OVER THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY WILL SLOWLY BECOME LESS DOMINANT FOR OUR AREA THROUGH THE WEEK AS IT BECOMES FLATTER. A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS WILL LEAD TO SOME INITIAL FLATTENING OF THIS RIDGE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...A POSSIBLE TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING THE WESTERN GULF COAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MODELS ALSO VARY EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES WITHIN RATHER ZONAL FLOW. THIS TROUGH PASSING BY THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW THE FRONTAL ZONE TO DROP A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND APPROACH THE OHIO RIVER EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT LIKELY STILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. IN FACT...MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE A MORE OR LESS ZONAL PATTERN WITH RIDGING CENTERED ALONG OR OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST AND SOUTHWEST OF CALIFORNIA. IN BETWEEN...A TROPICAL FEED OF MOISTURE AND WEAK TROUGH AND THE REMNANTS OF THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM COULD EVENTUALLY WORK INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE THE SFC FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD ALSO REMAIN GENERALLY NORTH OF EASTERN KY...ALTHOUGH WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW WILL LEAD TO SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT AND NORTH AND SOUTH OSCILLATIONS OVER TIME. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE REGARDING HOW FAST THE UPPER TROUGH AND OR ANY TROPICAL REMNANTS MAY APPROACH THE REGION. THE PERIOD SHOULD GENERALLY FEATURE WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH A PERSISTENT THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH CHANCES MAY PEAK DURING EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO...CHANCES APPEAR HIGHER WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSING BY EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH ANOTHER PEAK IF THE REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM OR SECOND SHORTWAVE WORK AROUND THE RIDGE INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND TRACK OF ANY OF THESE IS LOW...AND THE 12Z ECMWF THAT STRENGTHENS THE LOW AFTER IT MOVES INLAND DOES NOT SEEM BELIEVABLE. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS WITH THE MOIST AIRMASS KEEPING MIN T NO LOWER THAN THE MID 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 WHILE FOG IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS NIGHT...IT SHOULD BE CONTAINED IN THE VALLEYS WITH TAF SITES REMAINING UNAFFECTED. SOME SCT TO BKN BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS A THICKER CLOUD DECK MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH...MAINLY ACROSS KSYM AND POSSIBLY DOWN TO KSJS. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE AT SYM MONDAY AFTERNOON SO HAVE INCLUDED A VCTS IN ITS TAF FOR THIS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE THE RULE INTO MID MORNING MONDAY BEFORE PICKING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS LATER IN THE DAY AT MOST SPOTS. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...ABE LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
635 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 LATEST UPDATE... MESOSCALE DISCUSSION .MESOSCALE DISCUSSION... ISSUED AT 634 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 WE ARE CURRENTLY WATCHING A BAND OF CONVECTION STRETCHING WEST FROM CHICAGO. THIS IS PARALLEL TO MODERATE WESTERLY EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 35 KNOTS SEEN WITH AREA PROFILERS AND SPC MESOANALYSIS. 12Z DTX SOUNDING INDICATED VERY ANOMALOUS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.46 INCHES /GREATER THAN 90TH PERCENTILE/. THIS HIGH RAINFALL EFFICIENCY ENVIRONMENT HAS BEEN SUPPORTED BY SEVERAL REPORTS OF RAINFALL RATES EXCEEDING 2 INCHES PER HOUR THIS AFTERNOON. GREATEST PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON FELL JUST SOUTH OF I-94 IN VAN BUREN...KALAMAZOO AND PARTS OF CALHOUN COUNTIES. RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR SHOW CHICAGO PRECIPITATION MOVING EAST INTO THIS GENERAL AREA WITH SOME DISCRETE CELLS FORMING AHEAD OF THE MAIN AREA. SOME CLEARING OVER INDIANA NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE COULD ALLOW EXTRA EVENING INSOLATION TO ADD TO THE 1000+ J/KG MUCAPE ALREADY BEING ESTIMATED OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MI PER SPC MESOANALYSIS GRAPHICS. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING COULD ASSIST IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE DISCRETE CELLS. WITH AN OVERLAP OF 35+ KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR...MUCAPE > 1000 J/KG... DEWPOINTS IN 70S WITH ATTENDANT LOW DEPRESSIONS...AND UNCERTAINTY REGARDING RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION...THERE REMAINS A NON-ZERO THREAT FOR TORNADOES EARLY TONIGHT. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 THE AREA WILL SEE A WET PERIOD THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT AS A VERY MOIST AND HUMID AIR MASS COLLIDES WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH SOME SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. A BIGGER THREAT IS FLOODING WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ON TOP OF SATURATED SOILS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. THE AREA WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL THEN BECOME POSSIBLE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRIES TO APPROACH THE AREA. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 OUR MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS ON THE PERIOD THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING THROUGH AND THE FLOOD AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THAT EXISTS. WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO DEAL WITH PCPN CHCS COMING BACK IN FOR WED AND WED NIGHT. WE ARE SEEING THE SECOND LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS THAT WAS NEAR THE MS RIVER EARLIER NOW MOVING INTO THE CWFA. THE SEVERE THREAT HAS LESSENED A LITTLE BIT ACROSS THE CWFA AS INSTABILITY HAS BEEN TEMPERED WITH THE CLOUDS AND PCPN THAT HAS MOVED THROUGH. THAT SAID...THERE IS STILL OVER 1000 J/KG OF CAPE AVAILABLE AND EFFECTIVE WIND SHEAR IS 30-40 KNOTS...SO SOME MARGINAL LARGE HAIL AND WIND IS STILL POSSIBLE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE FLOODING POTENTIAL DOWN SOUTH CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. WITH UP TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN AT SOME LOCATIONS OVER THE WEEKEND...AND LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS ALREADY OBSERVED TODAY IN SOME TRAINING OF STORMS CONTINUES TO JUSTIFY THE THREAT. PWATS UP AROUND 2 INCHES...A DEEP AND MOIST COLUMN WITH PROVIDE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES AT TIMES. WE WILL SEE ONE LAST WAVE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. A DECENT COLD FRONT NOW MOVING THROUGH WI IS ACTING ON THE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE ALONG WITH LARGER SCALE LIFT VIA THE RRQ OF THE UPPER JET NORTH OF THE AREA. WE EXPECT THAT THIS PCPN WILL MOVE OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS MOVES IN. TUESDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A COOLER AND DRIER DAY AS WE WILL SEE THE WARM AND MOIST AXIS SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING WHAT SHOULD BE A NICE DAY ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT THAT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL THEN TRY TO MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AS ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE TRIES TO LIFT OUT INTO THE AREA. THE GENERAL TREND OF THE MODELS HAS BEEN TO SUPPRESS THE FRONT SOUTH TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER AND KEEP THE JUICY AIR MASS DOWN THERE WITH THE UPPER JET A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. WE STILL COULD SEE SOME PCPN AT THAT TIME AS WAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW UP HERE. THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT JUST LOOKS A BIT LESS AT THIS TIME FOR WED NIGHT AND THU. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 EXTENDED FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST TRANSITION FROM SEMI-ZONAL FLOW MID WEEK TO NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR MOST OF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE THE STRONGER SYSTEM APPROACHES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COULD IMPACT WEST MICHIGAN. MODELS AT THIS TIME ABSORB THE SYSTEM INTO THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BEFORE IT REACHES THE WOLVERINE STATE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS TAF SITES IN WESTERN MICHIGAN LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. HRRR AND RAP ARE IN AGREEMENT SHOWING THIS ACTIVITY ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. CONCERNED ABOUT FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL BE OPTIMISTIC AND RELY ON DRIER AIRMASS TO WIN OUT OVER SURFACE MOISTURE. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 WE HAVE LEFT THE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS IS FOR THE TIME BEING. MOST WEB CAMS ALONG THE COAST SHOW QUITE A BIT OF FOG STILL HOLDING IN. SOUTH HAVEN HAS SEEN SOME IMPROVEMENT AT THE COAST...HOWEVER WE WILL LEAVE IT FOR THE TIME BEING WITH PLENTY OF FOG ELSEWHERE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AS STORMS MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING THAT THE FOG MAY MIX OUT SOME. WE WILL MONITOR THE SITUATION FOR A POSSIBLE EXTENSION OF THE HEADLINE. OTHERWISE...WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY WIND/WAVE HEADLINES THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH WINDS GENERALLY STAYING BELOW 20 KNOTS. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 BIGGEST RISK OF AREAL FLOODING TODAY IS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94... WHERE CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAVE PUT DOWN OVER 2 INCHES IN SPOTS. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF MODERATE STRATIFORM TO HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAIN ARE EXPECTED THERE. ELSEWHERE... SCATTERED HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL POP UP AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME. SOILS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY SATURATED AFTER THE PAST FEW DAYS OF WIDESPREAD RAIN... SO LESS RAIN WILL CAUSE GREATER IMPACTS THAN USUAL. MULTIPLE RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT AND MORE MAY BE ON THE WAY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS RIVER LEVELS AT SOME SITES CONTINUE TO CLIMB. SMALLER RIVERS THAT HAVE QUICKER RESPONSE... SUCH AS THE LOOKING GLASS AND SYCAMORE CREEK... ARE ON THEIR WAY BACK DOWN.. BUT ARE STILL AT THE MERCY OF ANY LOCAL HEAVY RAIN THAT FALLS TONIGHT. DEEP TROPICAL AIR MASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES IS IN PLACE FROM SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THESE PW VALUES ARE AT LEAST EAST 90TH PERCENTILE TO NEAR RECORD FOR MID JUNE. AS A RESULT... RAINFALL PRODUCTION IN SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS BEEN VERY EFFICIENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. ANOTHER WAVE ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE THE AREA WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL SHOT OF HEAVY RAINFALL... WITH THE MOST LIKELY TARGET BEING SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91L IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL HEAD OUR WAY LATER IN THE WEEK. HOW MUCH OF THIS ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS CONVERTED TO PRECIPITATION REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN... THOUGH SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AGAIN STANDS THE GREATEST RISK FOR MORE HEAVY RAIN. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MIZ059-064>067- 071>074. LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849. && $$ MESOSCALE...TJT SYNOPSIS...NJJ SHORT TERM...NJJ LONG TERM...MWS AVIATION...MWS HYDROLOGY...CAS MARINE...NJJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 LATEST UPDATE... SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 THE AREA WILL SEE A WET PERIOD THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT AS A VERY MOIST AND HUMID AIR MASS COLLIDES WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH SOME SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. A BIGGER THREAT IS FLOODING WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ON TOP OF SATURATED SOILS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. THE AREA WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL THEN BECOME POSSIBLE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRIES TO APPROACH THE AREA. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 OUR MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS ON THE PERIOD THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING THROUGH AND THE FLOOD AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THAT EXISTS. WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO DEAL WITH PCPN CHCS COMING BACK IN FOR WED AND WED NIGHT. WE ARE SEEING THE SECOND LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS THAT WAS NEAR THE MS RIVER EARLIER NOW MOVING INTO THE CWFA. THE SEVERE THREAT HAS LESSENED A LITTLE BIT ACROSS THE CWFA AS INSTABILITY HAS BEEN TEMPERED WITH THE CLOUDS AND PCPN THAT HAS MOVED THROUGH. THAT SAID...THERE IS STILL OVER 1000 J/KG OF CAPE AVAILABLE AND EFFECTIVE WIND SHEAR IS 30-40 KNOTS...SO SOME MARGINAL LARGE HAIL AND WIND IS STILL POSSIBLE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE FLOODING POTENTIAL DOWN SOUTH CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. WITH UP TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN AT SOME LOCATIONS OVER THE WEEKEND...AND LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS ALREADY OBSERVED TODAY IN SOME TRAINING OF STORMS CONTINUES TO JUSTIFY THE THREAT. PWATS UP AROUND 2 INCHES...A DEEP AND MOIST COLUMN WITH PROVIDE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES AT TIMES. WE WILL SEE ONE LAST WAVE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. A DECENT COLD FRONT NOW MOVING THROUGH WI IS ACTING ON THE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE ALONG WITH LARGER SCALE LIFT VIA THE RRQ OF THE UPPER JET NORTH OF THE AREA. WE EXPECT THAT THIS PCPN WILL MOVE OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS MOVES IN. TUESDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A COOLER AND DRIER DAY AS WE WILL SEE THE WARM AND MOIST AXIS SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING WHAT SHOULD BE A NICE DAY ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT THAT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL THEN TRY TO MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AS ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE TRIES TO LIFT OUT INTO THE AREA. THE GENERAL TREND OF THE MODELS HAS BEEN TO SUPPRESS THE FRONT SOUTH TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER AND KEEP THE JUICY AIR MASS DOWN THERE WITH THE UPPER JET A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. WE STILL COULD SEE SOME PCPN AT THAT TIME AS WAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW UP HERE. THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT JUST LOOKS A BIT LESS AT THIS TIME FOR WED NIGHT AND THU. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 EXTENDED FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST TRANSITION FROM SEMI-ZONAL FLOW MID WEEK TO NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR MOST OF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE THE STRONGER SYSTEM APPROACHES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COULD IMPACT WEST MICHIGAN. MODELS AT THIS TIME ABSORB THE SYSTEM INTO THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BEFORE IT REACHES THE WOLVERINE STATE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS TAF SITES IN WESTERN MICHIGAN LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. HRRR AND RAP ARE IN AGREEMENT SHOWING THIS ACTIVITY ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. CONCERNED ABOUT FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL BE OPTIMISTIC AND RELY ON DRIER AIRMASS TO WIN OUT OVER SURFACE MOISTURE. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 WE HAVE LEFT THE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS IS FOR THE TIME BEING. MOST WEB CAMS ALONG THE COAST SHOW QUITE A BIT OF FOG STILL HOLDING IN. SOUTH HAVEN HAS SEEN SOME IMPROVEMENT AT THE COAST...HOWEVER WE WILL LEAVE IT FOR THE TIME BEING WITH PLENTY OF FOG ELSEWHERE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AS STORMS MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING THAT THE FOG MAY MIX OUT SOME. WE WILL MONITOR THE SITUATION FOR A POSSIBLE EXTENSION OF THE HEADLINE. OTHERWISE...WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY WIND/WAVE HEADLINES THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH WINDS GENERALLY STAYING BELOW 20 KNOTS. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 BIGGEST RISK OF AREAL FLOODING TODAY IS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94... WHERE CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAVE PUT DOWN OVER 2 INCHES IN SPOTS. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF MODERATE STRATIFORM TO HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAIN ARE EXPECTED THERE. ELSEWHERE... SCATTERED HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL POP UP AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME. SOILS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY SATURATED AFTER THE PAST FEW DAYS OF WIDESPREAD RAIN... SO LESS RAIN WILL CAUSE GREATER IMPACTS THAN USUAL. MULTIPLE RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT AND MORE MAY BE ON THE WAY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS RIVER LEVELS AT SOME SITES CONTINUE TO CLIMB. SMALLER RIVERS THAT HAVE QUICKER RESPONSE... SUCH AS THE LOOKING GLASS AND SYCAMORE CREEK... ARE ON THEIR WAY BACK DOWN.. BUT ARE STILL AT THE MERCY OF ANY LOCAL HEAVY RAIN THAT FALLS TONIGHT. DEEP TROPICAL AIR MASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES IS IN PLACE FROM SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THESE PW VALUES ARE AT LEAST EAST 90TH PERCENTILE TO NEAR RECORD FOR MID JUNE. AS A RESULT... RAINFALL PRODUCTION IN SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS BEEN VERY EFFICIENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. ANOTHER WAVE ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE THE AREA WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL SHOT OF HEAVY RAINFALL... WITH THE MOST LIKELY TARGET BEING SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91L IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL HEAD OUR WAY LATER IN THE WEEK. HOW MUCH OF THIS ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS CONVERTED TO PRECIPITATION REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN... THOUGH SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AGAIN STANDS THE GREATEST RISK FOR MORE HEAVY RAIN. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MIZ059-064>067- 071>074. LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NJJ SHORT TERM...NJJ LONG TERM...MWS AVIATION...MWS HYDROLOGY...CAS MARINE...NJJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
136 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 LATEST UPDATE... AVIATION .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING FAIR WEATHER ON TUESDAY BUT RAINS MAY RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY. && .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1124 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 WE HAVE UPDATED A COUPLE OF THINGS WITH THE FCST THIS MORNING... INCLUDING BUMPING RAIN CHCS UP TO CATEGORICAL AND ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SRN TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES AND CLINTON COUNTY THROUGH THIS EVENING. WE HAVE TWO WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE POISED TO MOVE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWFA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FIRST ONE IS JUST MOVING INTO OUR LAKESHORE COUNTIES AS OF 15Z. THE SECOND HAS JUST MOVED EAST OF THE MS RIVER AND SHOULD BE IN HERE AROUND MID AFTERNOON GIVEN ITS CURRENT MOTION. MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE MAINLY SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER WITH THESE LINES DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH THE CLOUDS...FOG...AND RAIN MOVING IN. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THESE BANDS OVER THE SRN TWO ROWS OF THE CWFA. THERE IS ALREADY 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE AVAILABLE...WHICH IS BASED CLOSE TO THE SFC. WE EXPECT THE STORMS TO INTENSIFY A BIT AS THEY TAP THIS INSTABILITY. FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL AS LIKELY THE BIGGEST THREAT...WITH SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE IN A WET MICROBURST. CAPE IS NOT EXCEPTIONALLY THICK IN APPEARANCE...BUT BIG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. EFFECTIVE BULK LAYER SHEAR IS AROUND 30-35 KNOTS... SUPPORTIVE OF SOME ORGANIZED STORMS. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED WHERE HEAVIER RAIN FELL OVER THE PAST WEEKEND WHICH WILL BE THE SAME AREA THAT SEES THE HEAVIEST RAINS TODAY. THE THINNER APPEARANCE OF THE CAPE...COMBINED WITH PWATS OF 2.00 INCHES ADVECTING IN AND DEEP MOISTURE DEFINITELY SUPPORTS A HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING THREAT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 621 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 DENSE FOG HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD SO AN ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD MITIGATE DENSE FOG FORMATION. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 ANOTHER DAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION. MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT EXISTS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR IS AROUND 35 KNOTS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LONG SKINNY CAPE. A FEW STRONG UPDRAFTS COULD PERSIST AND BRING HAIL AND WIND THREAT...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. CLOSED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS OPENS UP AND MOVES EAST OVER THE TOP OF SE CONUS UPPER HIGH BY THIS EVENING AND IS EVENTUALLY ABSORBED INTO EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGHING. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS ARRIVES IN THE AFTERNOON AND SHOULD HELP DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION. STORMS WILL DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WITH CANADIAN SFC HIGH BUILDING IN FOR TUESDAY WITH LOWER DEW POINTS AND SOME WELCOME DRYING. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH MOIST RETURN FLOW AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT HELPING TO FOCUS SHOWERS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG AND OUT AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FORECAST FOR LATE THIS WEEK IS VERY TRICKY DUE LARGELY TO SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EVOLUTION OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS WEEK. AT THIS TIME THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR THE WEAK FRONT TO CLEAR OUR AREA BY THURSDAY ALLOWING A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO GRADUALLY NUDGE IN FROM THE NW AND BRING FAIR WX THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS NOTION IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST ECMWF AS WELL. THE FOCUS OF MOST IF NOT ALL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE IN THE WEEK WOULD THEN STAY SOUTH OF OUR AREA ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS WHERE REMNANTS OF THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM COULD ALSO COME INTO PLAY BY LATE FRIDAY AND NEXT WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME WE WILL STILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE THIS WEEK TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST AND TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE WX PATTERN AND POTENTIAL TROPICAL REMNANT MOISTURE THAT FAR OUT IN TIME. FUTURE SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO TREND THE FCST FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY DRIER IF THESE GUIDANCE TRENDS CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE RATHER CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG RANGE FORECAST PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS TAF SITES IN WESTERN MICHIGAN LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. HRRR AND RAP ARE IN AGREEMENT SHOWING THIS ACTIVITY ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. CONCERNED ABOUT FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL BE OPTIMISTIC AND RELY ON DRIER AIRMASS TO WIN OUT OVER SURFACE MOISTURE. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 1124 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 WE HAVE EXPANDED THE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXTEND THE REST OF THE WAY DOWN THE NEARSHORE WATERS BASED ON THE WEB CAMS ON SOUTH HAVEN BUOY AND AT THE SHORE. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015 WIDESPREAD 1 TO 4 INCHES HAS FALLEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SINCE YESTERDAY. SOME AREAL FLOOD IMPACTS WERE OBSERVED UNDER THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF RAINFALL... BUT THE CONCERN SHIFTS TOWARD RIVERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS... AS WELL AS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED MONDAY AND MID-WEEK. RIVER FLOOD HEADLINES ARE ONGOING FOR FOUR RIVERS IN THE UPPER PORTION OF THE GRAND BASIN AND ITS TRIBUTARIES. PERSONS WITH INTERESTS ALONG THE RIVERS AT DEWITT/EAGLE... IONIA... HASTINGS... AND HOLT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR RIVER LEVELS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS... AS RIVERS ARE ALREADY OUT OF THEIR BANKS OR EXPECTED TO BE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM MICHIGAN TO LOUISIANA ARE RUNNING AT LEAST 90TH PERCENTILE TO NEAR RECORD FOR MID JUNE. THIS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAM RIDING UP THE BACKSIDE OF THE SE CONUS ANTICYCLONE WILL MAKE HEAVY RAIN A CONTINUING CONCERN AS ADDITIONAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. CONVECTION MONDAY WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS AS WAS THE CONVECTION SUNDAY MORNING. ALSO OF NOTE IS INVEST 91L NEAR THE YUCATAN... WHICH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE US GULF COAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AND SPREAD MOISTURE TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY... POSSIBLY THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. SATURATED SOIL AND HIGH RUNNING RIVER LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA WILL MAKE US MORE SUSCEPTIBLE THAN USUAL TO ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. BOTTOM LINE... FLOODING WILL HAVE TO SHARE THE STAGE WITH SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MIZ059-064>067- 071>074. LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849. && $$ UPDATE...NJJ SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO SHORT TERM...OSTUNO LONG TERM...LAURENS AVIATION...MWS HYDROLOGY...CAS MARINE...OSTUNO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
113 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 709 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 LATEST WEB CAMS SHOW MOST OF THE FOG NEAR THE LK SUP SHORE HAS CLEARED AWAY. SO CUT DOWN ON FOG COVERAGE TO JUST PATCHY IN THIS AREA. CANX THE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVYS ALONG LK SUP EARLIER TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TRENDS. AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...PERSIST NEAR LK MI AND THE BAY OF GREEN BAY. THIS FOG IS NOT LIKELY TO BURN OFF UNTIL MID TO LATE MRNG WHEN DAYTIME HEATING WL HAVE A GREATER IMPACT. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE UPR TROF AXIS SHIFTING E THRU THE NRN PLAINS ON THE WRN FLANK OF RETREATING UPR RDG OVER QUEBEC/NEW ENGLAND. UPR MI IS CURRENTLY DOMINATED BY DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVC AND STABLE AIRMASS DEPICTED ON THE 00Z GRB RAOB...WHICH SHOWS A SHARP INVRN BTWN ABOUT H8-75 AND KINX OF -3C...SO THERE IS NO PCPN. BUT WITH LINGERING LLVL MSTR...LO CLDS PERSIST E OF A LINE FM MUNISING TO ESCANABA OR SO...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE W WITH JUST SOME HI CLDS SPREADING E WELL IN ADVANCE OF SFC COLD FNT STRETCHING FM NW ONTARIO INTO MN. THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD STRETCHING TOWARD MPX THAT ARE MOVING INTO FAR WRN LK SUP AND EVEN A LTG STRIKE OR TWO JUST S OF DULUTH... BUT TRACK OF STRONGER SHRTWV INTO FAR NW ONTARIO...NOCTURNAL COOLING/LIMITED MUCAPE NO MORE THAN ABOUT 100 J/KG...AND LIMITED MSTR RETURN AHEAD OF THE FNT PER THE 00Z MPX RAOB...WHERE THE H925 AND H85 WINDS WERE SW AT ONLY 5 KTS...IS LIMITING THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS. MUCH DRIER AIR IS PRESENT OVER THE NRN PLAINS...SO THERE ARE NOTHING MORE THAN SOME PATCHY CLDS ALONG A SECOND COLD FNT MOVING INTO FAR NW MN. MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS/TS AS LEADING SFC COLD FNT CROSSES UPR MI DURING PERIOD OF DAYTIME HEATING. TODAY...LEADING SFC COLD FNT IS FCST TO MOVE INTO THE FAR WRN LAND CWA EARLY THIS MRNG. DESPITE THE NEGATIVE FACTORS LISTED ABOVE... THERE WL BE AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS AS MODELS FCST AN AREA OF STRONGER DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA OVER THE INCOMING FNT. TO THE E...THERE WL BE SOME PATCHY FOG THAT IS LOCALLY DENSE ESPCIALLY NEAR THE LK SHORES THIS MRNG...BUT ARRIVAL OF THICKER MID/HI CLDS AND THEN DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CAUSE THIS FOG TO DISSIPATE EXCEPT NEAR THE SHORES. AS THE FNT PRESSES TO THE E THRU THE DAY IN THE PRESENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING AND UNDER THE DEEP LYR FORCING...MODELS INDICATE THIS BNDRY WL ENCOUNTER INCRSG MUCAPE IN THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE OVER THE SCENTRAL WHEN IT ARRIVES THERE NEAR 18Z. SINCE THE HIER RES MODELS INDICATE THERE WL BE SOME GREATER LLVL CNVGC AS THE FNT ENCOUNTERS SOME LK BREEZE BNDRYS THERE...WL MAINTAIN THE HIER CHC POPS IN THIS AREA...WHERE MAX TEMPS WL AT LEAST APRCH 80 IN THE PRESENCE OF H85 TEMPS IN THE 13-14C RANGE. DURING THE AFTN OVER THE W...EXPECT SKIES TO TURN MOSUNNY AS THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FROPA. TNGT...ALTHOUGH THE TRAILING SECOND FNT IS FCST TO CROSS UPR MI THIS EVNG...EARLIER EXIT OF THE DEEPER MSTR INDICATES THERE WL BE ONLY PATCHY CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS BNDRY. UNDER MOCLR SKIES...EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 40S AT MOST PLACES AS H85 TEMPS TUMBLE AS LO AS 4C OVER THE NW CWA BY 12Z TUE. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 520 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH OFF AND ON LIGHT SHOWERS. BY 12Z TUESDAY THE SFC HIGH OVER MN WILL BE SHIFTING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WILL START OFF THE PERIOD DRY...WITH THE HIGH DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...AND EXITING ACROSS E UPPER MI BY 06Z. PW VALUES BOTTOM OUT AROUND 0.5 OVER THE E HALF OF THE CWA EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. KEPT THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT RIGHT AROUND 40F OVER THE E. HOWEVER...WITH HIGH CLOUDS ROLLING IN W AND CENTRAL...TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S WILL BE COMMON ELSEWHERE. SHOWERS WILL APPROACH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE FAR SW...AND EXPAND CENTRAL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY TO OUR S...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT SLIGHT CHANCE TS MAINLY NEAR THE WI BORDER. EVEN THAT MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE MONITOR FOR FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS. UPPER MI WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE MAIN LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AND A SECONDARY LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHERLY COLD FRONT WILL DRAG ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING LATER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WAA ON FRIDAY /30KT 850MB WINDS OFF THE 15/00Z ECMWF/ WILL HELP TEMPS REBOUND IN TO UPPER 60S. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES WITH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION LIKELY BEING THE BEST CHOICE AT THIS POINT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 109 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 WITH THE COLD FRONT ALREADY THROUGH THE WESTERN TAF...NOT EXPECTING ANY SHRA THERE AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE FCST PD. SCT -SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WL IMPACT SAW OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS INTO MID AFTN. EXPECT SHRA TO LOWER CIGS TO MVFR FOR A BRIEF TIME BEFORE DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT LEADS TO VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE REST OF THE FCST PD. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 25KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SLOWLY EXIT E TODAY...ALONG WITH MUCH OF THE LINGERING FOG. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N PLAINS THIS EVENING WILL BUILD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY...AND ACROSS ALL OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A TROUGH WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS A LOW PUSHES ACROSS N MANITOBA AND A LOW PASSES NEAR S LAKE MICHIGAN. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS S CENTRAL CANADA AND THE N PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING WILL BUILD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES LATE FRIDAY. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...KC SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...VOSS MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
722 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 709 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 LATEST WEB CAMS SHOW MOST OF THE FOG NEAR THE LK SUP SHORE HAS CLEARED AWAY. SO CUT DOWN ON FOG COVERAGE TO JUST PATCHY IN THIS AREA. CANX THE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVYS ALONG LK SUP EARLIER TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TRENDS. AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...PERSIST NEAR LK MI AND THE BAY OF GREEN BAY. THIS FOG IS NOT LIKELY TO BURN OFF UNTIL MID TO LATE MRNG WHEN DAYTIME HEATING WL HAVE A GREATER IMPACT. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE UPR TROF AXIS SHIFTING E THRU THE NRN PLAINS ON THE WRN FLANK OF RETREATING UPR RDG OVER QUEBEC/NEW ENGLAND. UPR MI IS CURRENTLY DOMINATED BY DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVC AND STABLE AIRMASS DEPICTED ON THE 00Z GRB RAOB...WHICH SHOWS A SHARP INVRN BTWN ABOUT H8-75 AND KINX OF -3C...SO THERE IS NO PCPN. BUT WITH LINGERING LLVL MSTR...LO CLDS PERSIST E OF A LINE FM MUNISING TO ESCANABA OR SO...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE W WITH JUST SOME HI CLDS SPREADING E WELL IN ADVANCE OF SFC COLD FNT STRETCHING FM NW ONTARIO INTO MN. THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD STRETCHING TOWARD MPX THAT ARE MOVING INTO FAR WRN LK SUP AND EVEN A LTG STRIKE OR TWO JUST S OF DULUTH... BUT TRACK OF STRONGER SHRTWV INTO FAR NW ONTARIO...NOCTURNAL COOLING/LIMITED MUCAPE NO MORE THAN ABOUT 100 J/KG...AND LIMITED MSTR RETURN AHEAD OF THE FNT PER THE 00Z MPX RAOB...WHERE THE H925 AND H85 WINDS WERE SW AT ONLY 5 KTS...IS LIMITING THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS. MUCH DRIER AIR IS PRESENT OVER THE NRN PLAINS...SO THERE ARE NOTHING MORE THAN SOME PATCHY CLDS ALONG A SECOND COLD FNT MOVING INTO FAR NW MN. MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS/TS AS LEADING SFC COLD FNT CROSSES UPR MI DURING PERIOD OF DAYTIME HEATING. TODAY...LEADING SFC COLD FNT IS FCST TO MOVE INTO THE FAR WRN LAND CWA EARLY THIS MRNG. DESPITE THE NEGATIVE FACTORS LISTED ABOVE... THERE WL BE AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS AS MODELS FCST AN AREA OF STRONGER DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA OVER THE INCOMING FNT. TO THE E...THERE WL BE SOME PATCHY FOG THAT IS LOCALLY DENSE ESPCIALLY NEAR THE LK SHORES THIS MRNG...BUT ARRIVAL OF THICKER MID/HI CLDS AND THEN DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CAUSE THIS FOG TO DISSIPATE EXCEPT NEAR THE SHORES. AS THE FNT PRESSES TO THE E THRU THE DAY IN THE PRESENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING AND UNDER THE DEEP LYR FORCING...MODELS INDICATE THIS BNDRY WL ENCOUNTER INCRSG MUCAPE IN THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE OVER THE SCENTRAL WHEN IT ARRIVES THERE NEAR 18Z. SINCE THE HIER RES MODELS INDICATE THERE WL BE SOME GREATER LLVL CNVGC AS THE FNT ENCOUNTERS SOME LK BREEZE BNDRYS THERE...WL MAINTAIN THE HIER CHC POPS IN THIS AREA...WHERE MAX TEMPS WL AT LEAST APRCH 80 IN THE PRESENCE OF H85 TEMPS IN THE 13-14C RANGE. DURING THE AFTN OVER THE W...EXPECT SKIES TO TURN MOSUNNY AS THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FROPA. TNGT...ALTHOUGH THE TRAILING SECOND FNT IS FCST TO CROSS UPR MI THIS EVNG...EARLIER EXIT OF THE DEEPER MSTR INDICATES THERE WL BE ONLY PATCHY CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS BNDRY. UNDER MOCLR SKIES...EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 40S AT MOST PLACES AS H85 TEMPS TUMBLE AS LO AS 4C OVER THE NW CWA BY 12Z TUE. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 520 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH OFF AND ON LIGHT SHOWERS. BY 12Z TUESDAY THE SFC HIGH OVER MN WILL BE SHIFTING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WILL START OFF THE PERIOD DRY...WITH THE HIGH DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...AND EXITING ACROSS E UPPER MI BY 06Z. PW VALUES BOTTOM OUT AROUND 0.5 OVER THE E HALF OF THE CWA EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. KEPT THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT RIGHT AROUND 40F OVER THE E. HOWEVER...WITH HIGH CLOUDS ROLLING IN W AND CENTRAL...TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S WILL BE COMMON ELSEWHERE. SHOWERS WILL APPROACH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE FAR SW...AND EXPAND CENTRAL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY TO OUR S...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT SLIGHT CHANCE TS MAINLY NEAR THE WI BORDER. EVEN THAT MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE MONITOR FOR FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS. UPPER MI WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE MAIN LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AND A SECONDARY LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHERLY COLD FRONT WILL DRAG ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING LATER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WAA ON FRIDAY /30KT 850MB WINDS OFF THE 15/00Z ECMWF/ WILL HELP TEMPS REBOUND IN TO UPPER 60S. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES WITH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION LIKELY BEING THE BEST CHOICE AT THIS POINT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 EXPECT LINGERING FOG/LIFR CONDITIONS AT SAW TO BURN OFF SOON AFTER TAF ISSUANCE AND GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS ALONG AN INCOMING COLD FNT MAY BRING SOME MVFR CONDITIONS AT IWD...THESE HEAVIER SHOWERS WL SHIFT TO THE E AND AWAY FM THIS SITE EARLY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF VFR WX. CMX IS LIKELY TO MISS THESE SHOWERS ALTOGETHER. SCT -SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE FNT MAY IMPACT SAW FM LATE THIS MRNG THRU MID AFTN. ALTHOUGH A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD CAUSE MVFR CONDITIONS THERE FOR A BRIEF TIME...UNCERTAINTY ON THE OCCURRENCE AND TIMING OF THESE SHOWERS IS TOO HI TO INCLUDE A SPECIFIC FCST OF LOWER THAN VFR. DRIER AIR IN THE NNW FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FROPA WL THEN RESULT IN VFR WX AT ALL 3 TAF SITES. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 25KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SLOWLY EXIT E TODAY...ALONG WITH MUCH OF THE LINGERING FOG. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N PLAINS THIS EVENING WILL BUILD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY...AND ACROSS ALL OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A TROUGH WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS A LOW PUSHES ACROSS N MANITOBA AND A LOW PASSES NEAR S LAKE MICHIGAN. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS S CENTRAL CANADA AND THE N PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING WILL BUILD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES LATE FRIDAY. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ263>267. LAKE MICHIGAN... DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ221-248- 250. && $$ UPDATE...KC SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...KC MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
710 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 709 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 LATEST WEB CAMS SHOW MOST OF THE FOG NEAR THE LK SUP SHORE HAS CLEARED AWAY. SO CUT DOWN ON FOG COVERAGE TO JUST PATCHY IN THIS AREA. CANX THE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVYS ALONG LK SUP EARLIER TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TRENDS. AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...PERSIST NEAR LK MI AND THE BAY OF GREEN BAY. THIS FOG IS NOT LIKELY TO BURN OFF UNTIL MID TO LATE MRNG WHEN DAYTIME HEATING WL HAVE A GREATER IMPACT. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE UPR TROF AXIS SHIFTING E THRU THE NRN PLAINS ON THE WRN FLANK OF RETREATING UPR RDG OVER QUEBEC/NEW ENGLAND. UPR MI IS CURRENTLY DOMINATED BY DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVC AND STABLE AIRMASS DEPICTED ON THE 00Z GRB RAOB...WHICH SHOWS A SHARP INVRN BTWN ABOUT H8-75 AND KINX OF -3C...SO THERE IS NO PCPN. BUT WITH LINGERING LLVL MSTR...LO CLDS PERSIST E OF A LINE FM MUNISING TO ESCANABA OR SO...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE W WITH JUST SOME HI CLDS SPREADING E WELL IN ADVANCE OF SFC COLD FNT STRETCHING FM NW ONTARIO INTO MN. THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD STRETCHING TOWARD MPX THAT ARE MOVING INTO FAR WRN LK SUP AND EVEN A LTG STRIKE OR TWO JUST S OF DULUTH... BUT TRACK OF STRONGER SHRTWV INTO FAR NW ONTARIO...NOCTURNAL COOLING/LIMITED MUCAPE NO MORE THAN ABOUT 100 J/KG...AND LIMITED MSTR RETURN AHEAD OF THE FNT PER THE 00Z MPX RAOB...WHERE THE H925 AND H85 WINDS WERE SW AT ONLY 5 KTS...IS LIMITING THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS. MUCH DRIER AIR IS PRESENT OVER THE NRN PLAINS...SO THERE ARE NOTHING MORE THAN SOME PATCHY CLDS ALONG A SECOND COLD FNT MOVING INTO FAR NW MN. MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS/TS AS LEADING SFC COLD FNT CROSSES UPR MI DURING PERIOD OF DAYTIME HEATING. TODAY...LEADING SFC COLD FNT IS FCST TO MOVE INTO THE FAR WRN LAND CWA EARLY THIS MRNG. DESPITE THE NEGATIVE FACTORS LISTED ABOVE... THERE WL BE AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS AS MODELS FCST AN AREA OF STRONGER DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA OVER THE INCOMING FNT. TO THE E...THERE WL BE SOME PATCHY FOG THAT IS LOCALLY DENSE ESPCIALLY NEAR THE LK SHORES THIS MRNG...BUT ARRIVAL OF THICKER MID/HI CLDS AND THEN DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CAUSE THIS FOG TO DISSIPATE EXCEPT NEAR THE SHORES. AS THE FNT PRESSES TO THE E THRU THE DAY IN THE PRESENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING AND UNDER THE DEEP LYR FORCING...MODELS INDICATE THIS BNDRY WL ENCOUNTER INCRSG MUCAPE IN THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE OVER THE SCENTRAL WHEN IT ARRIVES THERE NEAR 18Z. SINCE THE HIER RES MODELS INDICATE THERE WL BE SOME GREATER LLVL CNVGC AS THE FNT ENCOUNTERS SOME LK BREEZE BNDRYS THERE...WL MAINTAIN THE HIER CHC POPS IN THIS AREA...WHERE MAX TEMPS WL AT LEAST APRCH 80 IN THE PRESENCE OF H85 TEMPS IN THE 13-14C RANGE. DURING THE AFTN OVER THE W...EXPECT SKIES TO TURN MOSUNNY AS THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FROPA. TNGT...ALTHOUGH THE TRAILING SECOND FNT IS FCST TO CROSS UPR MI THIS EVNG...EARLIER EXIT OF THE DEEPER MSTR INDICATES THERE WL BE ONLY PATCHY CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS BNDRY. UNDER MOCLR SKIES...EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 40S AT MOST PLACES AS H85 TEMPS TUMBLE AS LO AS 4C OVER THE NW CWA BY 12Z TUE. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 520 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH OFF AND ON LIGHT SHOWERS. BY 12Z TUESDAY THE SFC HIGH OVER MN WILL BE SHIFTING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WILL START OFF THE PERIOD DRY...WITH THE HIGH DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...AND EXITING ACROSS E UPPER MI BY 06Z. PW VALUES BOTTOM OUT AROUND 0.5 OVER THE E HALF OF THE CWA EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. KEPT THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT RIGHT AROUND 40F OVER THE E. HOWEVER...WITH HIGH CLOUDS ROLLING IN W AND CENTRAL...TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S WILL BE COMMON ELSEWHERE. SHOWERS WILL APPROACH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE FAR SW...AND EXPAND CENTRAL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY TO OUR S...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT SLIGHT CHANCE TS MAINLY NEAR THE WI BORDER. EVEN THAT MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE MONITOR FOR FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS. UPPER MI WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE MAIN LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AND A SECONDARY LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHERLY COLD FRONT WILL DRAG ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING LATER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WAA ON FRIDAY /30KT 850MB WINDS OFF THE 15/00Z ECMWF/ WILL HELP TEMPS REBOUND IN TO UPPER 60S. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES WITH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION LIKELY BEING THE BEST CHOICE AT THIS POINT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 MID CLOUDS MOVING AHEAD OF INCOMING SYSTEM FROM THE WEST MAY LIMIT DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH CLOUDS WILL UTILIZE A TEMPO GROUP FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF MVFR VSBYS IN FOG AT MAINLY KCMX AND KSAW WHERE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE ONLY A DEGREE AT PRESENT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. EXPECT IT TO HAVE THE GREATEST INFLUENCE ON KIWD/KSAW AND HAVE WENT WITH -SHRA AT THOSE SITES. THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS AT KIWD LATE TONIGHT AND KSAW ON MONDAY. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE FRONT MON AFTERNOON INTO MON EVENING. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 25KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SLOWLY EXIT E TODAY...ALONG WITH MUCH OF THE LINGERING FOG. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N PLAINS THIS EVENING WILL BUILD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY...AND ACROSS ALL OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A TROUGH WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS A LOW PUSHES ACROSS N MANITOBA AND A LOW PASSES NEAR S LAKE MICHIGAN. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS S CENTRAL CANADA AND THE N PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING WILL BUILD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES LATE FRIDAY. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ263>267. LAKE MICHIGAN... DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ221-248- 250. && $$ UPDATE...KC SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...VOSS MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
520 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE UPR TROF AXIS SHIFTING E THRU THE NRN PLAINS ON THE WRN FLANK OF RETREATING UPR RDG OVER QUEBEC/NEW ENGLAND. UPR MI IS CURRENTLY DOMINATED BY DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVC AND STABLE AIRMASS DEPICTED ON THE 00Z GRB RAOB...WHICH SHOWS A SHARP INVRN BTWN ABOUT H8-75 AND KINX OF -3C...SO THERE IS NO PCPN. BUT WITH LINGERING LLVL MSTR...LO CLDS PERSIST E OF A LINE FM MUNISING TO ESCANABA OR SO...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE W WITH JUST SOME HI CLDS SPREADING E WELL IN ADVANCE OF SFC COLD FNT STRETCHING FM NW ONTARIO INTO MN. THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD STRETCHING TOWARD MPX THAT ARE MOVING INTO FAR WRN LK SUP AND EVEN A LTG STRIKE OR TWO JUST S OF DULUTH... BUT TRACK OF STRONGER SHRTWV INTO FAR NW ONTARIO...NOCTURNAL COOLING/LIMITED MUCAPE NO MORE THAN ABOUT 100 J/KG...AND LIMITED MSTR RETURN AHEAD OF THE FNT PER THE 00Z MPX RAOB...WHERE THE H925 AND H85 WINDS WERE SW AT ONLY 5 KTS...IS LIMITING THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS. MUCH DRIER AIR IS PRESENT OVER THE NRN PLAINS...SO THERE ARE NOTHING MORE THAN SOME PATCHY CLDS ALONG A SECOND COLD FNT MOVING INTO FAR NW MN. MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS/TS AS LEADING SFC COLD FNT CROSSES UPR MI DURING PERIOD OF DAYTIME HEATING. TODAY...LEADING SFC COLD FNT IS FCST TO MOVE INTO THE FAR WRN LAND CWA EARLY THIS MRNG. DESPITE THE NEGATIVE FACTORS LISTED ABOVE... THERE WL BE AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS AS MODELS FCST AN AREA OF STRONGER DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA OVER THE INCOMING FNT. TO THE E...THERE WL BE SOME PATCHY FOG THAT IS LOCALLY DENSE ESPCIALLY NEAR THE LK SHORES THIS MRNG...BUT ARRIVAL OF THICKER MID/HI CLDS AND THEN DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CAUSE THIS FOG TO DISSIPATE EXCEPT NEAR THE SHORES. AS THE FNT PRESSES TO THE E THRU THE DAY IN THE PRESENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING AND UNDER THE DEEP LYR FORCING...MODELS INDICATE THIS BNDRY WL ENCOUNTER INCRSG MUCAPE IN THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE OVER THE SCENTRAL WHEN IT ARRIVES THERE NEAR 18Z. SINCE THE HIER RES MODELS INDICATE THERE WL BE SOME GREATER LLVL CNVGC AS THE FNT ENCOUNTERS SOME LK BREEZE BNDRYS THERE...WL MAINTAIN THE HIER CHC POPS IN THIS AREA...WHERE MAX TEMPS WL AT LEAST APRCH 80 IN THE PRESENCE OF H85 TEMPS IN THE 13-14C RANGE. DURING THE AFTN OVER THE W...EXPECT SKIES TO TURN MOSUNNY AS THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FROPA. TNGT...ALTHOUGH THE TRAILING SECOND FNT IS FCST TO CROSS UPR MI THIS EVNG...EARLIER EXIT OF THE DEEPER MSTR INDICATES THERE WL BE ONLY PATCHY CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS BNDRY. UNDER MOCLR SKIES...EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 40S AT MOST PLACES AS H85 TEMPS TUMBLE AS LO AS 4C OVER THE NW CWA BY 12Z TUE. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 520 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH OFF AND ON LIGHT SHOWERS. BY 12Z TUESDAY THE SFC HIGH OVER MN WILL BE SHIFTING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WILL START OFF THE PERIOD DRY...WITH THE HIGH DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...AND EXITING ACROSS E UPPER MI BY 06Z. PW VALUES BOTTOM OUT AROUND 0.5 OVER THE E HALF OF THE CWA EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. KEPT THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT RIGHT AROUND 40F OVER THE E. HOWEVER...WITH HIGH CLOUDS ROLLING IN W AND CENTRAL...TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S WILL BE COMMON ELSEWHERE. SHOWERS WILL APPROACH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE FAR SW...AND EXPAND CENTRAL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY TO OUR S...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT SLIGHT CHANCE TS MAINLY NEAR THE WI BORDER. EVEN THAT MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE MONITOR FOR FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS. UPPER MI WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE MAIN LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AND A SECONDARY LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHERLY COLD FRONT WILL DRAG ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING LATER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WAA ON FRIDAY /30KT 850MB WINDS OFF THE 15/00Z ECMWF/ WILL HELP TEMPS REBOUND IN TO UPPER 60S. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES WITH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION LIKELY BEING THE BEST CHOICE AT THIS POINT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 MID CLOUDS MOVING AHEAD OF INCOMING SYSTEM FROM THE WEST MAY LIMIT DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH CLOUDS WILL UTILIZE A TEMPO GROUP FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF MVFR VSBYS IN FOG AT MAINLY KCMX AND KSAW WHERE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE ONLY A DEGREE AT PRESENT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. EXPECT IT TO HAVE THE GREATEST INFLUENCE ON KIWD/KSAW AND HAVE WENT WITH -SHRA AT THOSE SITES. THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS AT KIWD LATE TONIGHT AND KSAW ON MONDAY. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE FRONT MON AFTERNOON INTO MON EVENING. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 25KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SLOWLY EXIT E TODAY...ALONG WITH MUCH OF THE LINGERING FOG. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N PLAINS THIS EVENING WILL BUILD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY...AND ACROSS ALL OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A TROUGH WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS A LOW PUSHES ACROSS N MANITOBA AND A LOW PASSES NEAR S LAKE MICHIGAN. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS S CENTRAL CANADA AND THE N PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING WILL BUILD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES LATE FRIDAY. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ242>245- 248>251-263>267. LAKE MICHIGAN... DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ221-248- 250. && $$ SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...VOSS MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
430 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE UPR TROF AXIS SHIFTING E THRU THE NRN PLAINS ON THE WRN FLANK OF RETREATING UPR RDG OVER QUEBEC/NEW ENGLAND. UPR MI IS CURRENTLY DOMINATED BY DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVC AND STABLE AIRMASS DEPICTED ON THE 00Z GRB RAOB...WHICH SHOWS A SHARP INVRN BTWN ABOUT H8-75 AND KINX OF -3C...SO THERE IS NO PCPN. BUT WITH LINGERING LLVL MSTR...LO CLDS PERSIST E OF A LINE FM MUNISING TO ESCANABA OR SO...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE W WITH JUST SOME HI CLDS SPREADING E WELL IN ADVANCE OF SFC COLD FNT STRETCHING FM NW ONTARIO INTO MN. THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD STRETCHING TOWARD MPX THAT ARE MOVING INTO FAR WRN LK SUP AND EVEN A LTG STRIKE OR TWO JUST S OF DULUTH... BUT TRACK OF STRONGER SHRTWV INTO FAR NW ONTARIO...NOCTURNAL COOLING/LIMITED MUCAPE NO MORE THAN ABOUT 100 J/KG...AND LIMITED MSTR RETURN AHEAD OF THE FNT PER THE 00Z MPX RAOB...WHERE THE H925 AND H85 WINDS WERE SW AT ONLY 5 KTS...IS LIMITING THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS. MUCH DRIER AIR IS PRESENT OVER THE NRN PLAINS...SO THERE ARE NOTHING MORE THAN SOME PATCHY CLDS ALONG A SECOND COLD FNT MOVING INTO FAR NW MN. MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS/TS AS LEADING SFC COLD FNT CROSSES UPR MI DURING PERIOD OF DAYTIME HEATING. TODAY...LEADING SFC COLD FNT IS FCST TO MOVE INTO THE FAR WRN LAND CWA EARLY THIS MRNG. DESPITE THE NEGATIVE FACTORS LISTED ABOVE... THERE WL BE AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS AS MODELS FCST AN AREA OF STRONGER DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA OVER THE INCOMING FNT. TO THE E...THERE WL BE SOME PATCHY FOG THAT IS LOCALLY DENSE ESPCIALLY NEAR THE LK SHORES THIS MRNG...BUT ARRIVAL OF THICKER MID/HI CLDS AND THEN DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CAUSE THIS FOG TO DISSIPATE EXCEPT NEAR THE SHORES. AS THE FNT PRESSES TO THE E THRU THE DAY IN THE PRESENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING AND UNDER THE DEEP LYR FORCING...MODELS INDICATE THIS BNDRY WL ENCOUNTER INCRSG MUCAPE IN THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE OVER THE SCENTRAL WHEN IT ARRIVES THERE NEAR 18Z. SINCE THE HIER RES MODELS INDICATE THERE WL BE SOME GREATER LLVL CNVGC AS THE FNT ENCOUNTERS SOME LK BREEZE BNDRYS THERE...WL MAINTAIN THE HIER CHC POPS IN THIS AREA...WHERE MAX TEMPS WL AT LEAST APRCH 80 IN THE PRESENCE OF H85 TEMPS IN THE 13-14C RANGE. DURING THE AFTN OVER THE W...EXPECT SKIES TO TURN MOSUNNY AS THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FROPA. TNGT...ALTHOUGH THE TRAILING SECOND FNT IS FCST TO CROSS UPR MI THIS EVNG...EARLIER EXIT OF THE DEEPER MSTR INDICATES THERE WL BE ONLY PATCHY CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS BNDRY. UNDER MOCLR SKIES...EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 40S AT MOST PLACES AS H85 TEMPS TUMBLE AS LO AS 4C OVER THE NW CWA BY 12Z TUE. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015 CONFIDENCE IN THE EARLY PART OF THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST IS PRETTY HIGH WITH DETAILS GENERALLY STRAIGHT FORWARD. FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY TOMORROW EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WITH LAKE BREEZES PUSHING INLAND AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE U.P. DURING THE AFTERNOON. NEXT SHORTWAVE STREAKING EASTWARD IN PRIMARILY ZONAL FLOW ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT BUT NOT BEFORE A DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT ACROSS THE EAST WITH LOWS FALLING TO AROUND 40 IN THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCALES. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONGST THE MODELS WITH WEDNESDAYS SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE AREA. BASED ON RECENT DISMAL MODEL PERFORMANCE BEST COURSE OF ACTION WILL BE TO GO WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS ON POPS FOR THE WED/WED NIGHT TIME PERIOD YIELDING CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE THREAT FOR ROBUST CONVECTION LOOKS LOW. AS OF NOW...THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...UPPER TROUGHING DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL EJECT SHORTWAVE ENERGY EASTWARD IN ZONAL FLOW. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 MID CLOUDS MOVING AHEAD OF INCOMING SYSTEM FROM THE WEST MAY LIMIT DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH CLOUDS WILL UTILIZE A TEMPO GROUP FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF MVFR VSBYS IN FOG AT MAINLY KCMX AND KSAW WHERE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE ONLY A DEGREE AT PRESENT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. EXPECT IT TO HAVE THE GREATEST INFLUENCE ON KIWD/KSAW AND HAVE WENT WITH -SHRA AT THOSE SITES. THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS AT KIWD LATE TONIGHT AND KSAW ON MONDAY. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE FRONT MON AFTERNOON INTO MON EVENING. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 25KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SLOWLY EXIT E TODAY...ALONG WITH MUCH OF THE LINGERING FOG. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N PLAINS THIS EVENING WILL BUILD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY...AND ACROSS ALL OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A TROUGH WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS A LOW PUSHES ACROSS N MANITOBA AND A LOW PASSES NEAR S LAKE MICHIGAN. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS S CENTRAL CANADA AND THE N PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING WILL BUILD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES LATE FRIDAY. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ242>245- 248>251-263>267. LAKE MICHIGAN... DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ221-248- 250. && $$ SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...VOSS MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
312 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 THROUGH THIS EVENING...BREEZY NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT. SCATTERED/BROKEN CUMULUS WILL SPREAD THROUGH NE MINNESOTA...AND THERE COULD BE ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN FORECAST AREA. ADDED THE SHOWERS AS SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR AND HOPWRF HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE. LATER TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND THE DAKOTA WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT INTO MINNESOTA. THERE SHOULD BE CLEARING OVERNIGHT...AND THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BECOME VERY LIGHT. THIS WILL PROMOTE RADIATIONAL COOLING...SO LEANED ON THE COOLER MODEL GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES. LOWS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH THE COLDEST READINGS ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. MIGHT NEED TO LOWER THE FORECAST EVEN MORE. TUESDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN THE DAY OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN MINNESOTA...AND IT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY. SUNNY SKIES WILL GREET THE NORTHLAND AT SUNRISE AND THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT THERE SHOULD BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM THE WEST AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. SHOWERS COULD SPREAD INTO THE NORTHLAND FROM THE WEST...BEGINNING IN THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION...LATE IN THE DAY. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE PRIMARILY HOLDS OFF PCPN UNTIL THE EVENING...AFTER 00Z. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WED MORNING...BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO A GOOD PORTION OF THE NORTHLAND. AT THIS TIME THE BULK OF THE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH. A WEDGE OF DRY AIR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SIT OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES AND WRN ONTARIO REGION AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES AND SHUNT THE TRACK OF THE LOW TO THE SOUTH. KEEPING THE NRN THIRD OF THE CWA MOSTLY DRY. BY WED AFTERNOON...AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH SRN WI A STRONGER SURGE OF UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE LIFTED INTO THE AREA AND POSSIBLY TRIGGER A FEW T-STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA WED NIGHT AS A SECONDARY WEAK FRONT SLIDES ACROSS FAR NE MN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN ON THURSDAY AND THUR NIGHT...BUT MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY AS THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVES ALONG A WARM FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND WITH THE MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT...SO AT THIS TIME THERE IS NO INDICATION OF ANY SORT OF A SIGNIFICANT LAKE BREEZE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA. A THICK DECK OF STRATO-CU HAS MOVED IN ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE MN THIS AFTERNOON...AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND INL...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN 18Z TAF. GUSTY NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND SKIES WILL CLEAR OFF. ANOTHER ROUND OF LATE MORNING STRATO-CU WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY JUST BEFORE 18Z...AND WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE E/NE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 46 68 49 64 / 0 10 40 50 INL 38 70 48 70 / 10 0 20 10 BRD 45 69 52 69 / 10 30 70 50 HYR 43 72 53 67 / 0 0 40 60 ASX 48 68 50 64 / 0 0 30 50 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI LONG TERM...TENTINGER AVIATION...TENTINGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
656 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND AT 3 AM WAS LOCATED FROM NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN TO SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AND FAR EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA IN RESPONSE TO A BIT OF LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...AND MODELS SHOW AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR THEM TO BUILD EAST ACROSS SRN MN IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL ARRIVE LATER THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS IOWA LIFT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEASTERN MN AND WI. THE HRRR HAS A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON WHAT IS CURRENTLY ON RADAR AND RELIED HEAVILY ON IT FOR THE TRENDS EXPECTED TODAY. BEST WINDOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO IMPACT AREAS FROM ALBERT LEA TO EAU CLAIRE IS MID TO LATE MORNING WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING THIS AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH CLEARING SKIES. LOWER DEW POINTS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD WILL BRING LOW TEMPS DOWN INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S TONIGHT. DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING TONIGHT. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 THE LONG TERM CONCERNS REMAIN TIMING OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA AS WE REMAIN CLOSE TO BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THE POLAR JET. ALSO...MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. INITIALLY...DRY AND MILD WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY. THALER QG INDICATES FORCING AHEAD OF THE DAKOTAS SHORT WAVE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SPREAD SOME SHOWERS INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TIMING STILL LOOKS LIKE THAT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THREAT SHOULD EXIT INTO WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THUNDER THREAT IS MINIMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE NEXT THREAT OF MORE ORGANIZED WEATHER SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A TROPICAL SYSTEM AND ITS ATTENDANT DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE NORTHERN JET STREAM FORCING ANOTHER WAVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. FASTER UPPER FLOW BRINGS ANOTHER TROUGH INTO THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH WITH THE ECMWF PAINTING A DEEP LOW DEVELOPING AND MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS IS LIKELY OVERDONE...BUT DETAILS WITH TIMING OF ACTIVITY REMAINS DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME. IF THE GFS VERIFIES... MUCH OF SATURDAY COULD BE DRY. WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IF MODEL CONTINUITY BECOMES CLEARER IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DIFFICULT AS WELL...WITH READINGS RANGING CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGE TRENDING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AGAIN INTO THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 IFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ALONG I-90 AND I-35 ACROSS SRN MN...BUT EXPECT SUCH CONDITIONS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF ANY TAF LOCATIONS. MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS. ONE SUCH CLUSTER SOUTH OF RWF AND WEST OF MKT IS NOT MOVING MUCH AT ALL. IT WILL BREAK UP LATER THIS MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING TO THE EAST ACROSS WI AND SERN MN. GRADUAL CLEARING EXPECTED ELSEWHERE TODAY AND ACROSS WI THIS EVENING. KMSP...SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL VERY LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR. WINDS E AT 5 KT. WED...VFR WITH IFR/TSRA LIKELY EARLY. WINDS E AT 5-15 KT BECOMING NW. THU...VFR. WINDS N 5-10 KT. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF LONG TERM...DWE AVIATION...BORGHOFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
329 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND AT 3 AM WAS LOCATED FROM NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN TO SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AND FAR EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA IN RESPONSE TO A BIT OF LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...AND MODELS SHOW AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR THEM TO BUILD EAST ACROSS SRN MN IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL ARRIVE LATER THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS IOWA LIFT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEASTERN MN AND WI. THE HRRR HAS A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON WHAT IS CURRENTLY ON RADAR AND RELIED HEAVILY ON IT FOR THE TRENDS EXPECTED TODAY. BEST WINDOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO IMPACT AREAS FROM ALBERT LEA TO EAU CLAIRE IS MID TO LATE MORNING WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING THIS AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH CLEARING SKIES. LOWER DEW POINTS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD WILL BRING LOW TEMPS DOWN INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S TONIGHT. DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING TONIGHT. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 THE LONG TERM CONCERNS REMAIN TIMING OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA AS WE REMAIN CLOSE TO BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THE POLAR JET. ALSO...MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. INITIALLY...DRY AND MILD WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY. THALER QG INDICATES FORCING AHEAD OF THE DAKOTAS SHORT WAVE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SPREAD SOME SHOWERS INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TIMING STILL LOOKS LIKE THAT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THREAT SHOULD EXIT INTO WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THUNDER THREAT IS MINIMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE NEXT THREAT OF MORE ORGANIZED WEATHER SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A TROPICAL SYSTEM AND ITS ATTENDANT DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE NORTHERN JET STREAM FORCING ANOTHER WAVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. FASTER UPPER FLOW BRINGS ANOTHER TROUGH INTO THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH WITH THE ECMWF PAINTING A DEEP LOW DEVELOPING AND MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS IS LIKELY OVERDONE...BUT DETAILS WITH TIMING OF ACTIVITY REMAINS DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME. IF THE GFS VERIFIES... MUCH OF SATURDAY COULD BE DRY. WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IF MODEL CONTINUITY BECOMES CLEARER IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DIFFICULT AS WELL...WITH READINGS RANGING CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGE TRENDING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AGAIN INTO THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015 SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FALL APART...AND WILL BE ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD PREVENT ANY FOG FROM FORMING..DESPITE THE LIGHT WINDS. ON MONDAY WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY...WITH GUSTS NEAR 15KTS. KMSP... PRECIP CONTINUES TO DIMINISH...SO HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION FROM THE TAFS. LIGHT WINDS SHOULD HAVE A WESTERLY COMPONENT BY 06-07Z...AND BECOME NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT. ON MONDAY GUSTS NEAR 15KTS ARE EXPECTED...BUT THESE SHOULD DIMINISH NEAR SUNSET. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR. WINDS E AT 5 KT WED...VFR WITH IFR/TSRA POSSIBLE EARLY. WINDS SE AT 15 KT BECOMING NW AT 10G15 KT AFTER 18Z THU...VFR. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF LONG TERM...DWE AVIATION...JRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1253 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015 A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING ALONG AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHED FROM JUST EAST OF ELY INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AS OF 23Z. WE HAVE SEEN A STRONG STORM OR TWO BUT THEY HAVE BEEN UNABLE TO GET ORGANIZED. WE EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. FORCING IS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE AND MLCAPE/MUCAPE VALUES HAVE DIMINISHED A BIT OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS PER SPC MESOANALYSIS. WE WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO...THEN MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AS COVERAGE HAS BEEN LIMITED SO FAR. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015 MAIN CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM IS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES AREA OF SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM INL TO NEAR BJI MOVING EAST. THIS AREA CONTAINED THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER BUT HAS DECREASED IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES INTO MORE STABLE AIR. THE CONCERN TONIGHT IS SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT 20Z...THE FRONT EXTENDED FROM INL THROUGH BJI TO SAZ. BASED ON THE CURRENT MOVEMENT AND MODEL FORECASTS...IT WILL MOVE THROUGH DLH SOMETIME THIS EVENING AND OUT OF NW WI BY MONDAY MORNING. THE AREA OUT AHEAD OF IT IN NE MN RECEIVED A FEW HOURS OF SUN TODAY AND DUPONT`S ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. SPC MESOSCALE PAGE INDICATES SOME INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPES OF 500-700 AND LIFTED INDEXES OF -2 TO -3. THE HRRR INDICATES A LINE OF PRECIPITATION WILL FORM ACROSS NORTHERN MN AROUND 21-22Z BUT FALL APART AS IT MOVES EAST THIS EVENING. THE TWIN PORTS AND ARROWHEAD REGION MAY SEE SOME PRECIPITATION BUT IT MAY BE WIDELY SCATTERED. A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT CLEARING OUT THE SKIES WEST TO EAST BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL STILL BE A LINGERING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN NW WI MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT PASS THROUGH THAT REGION. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015 THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE UPPER MIDWEST REMAINS IN A ZONAL FLOW WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES THAT TRANSLATE OVER THE REGION. AN AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OVER MINNESOTA MONDAY NIGHT...SETTLING OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE NEXT WAVE WILL TRANSLATE EAST OUT OF THE DAKOTAS AND INTO WESTERN MN TUESDAY NIGHT...TRACKING OVER THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY. THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS WAVE IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION...EAST ACROSS THE ST CROIX RIVER VALLEY AND OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN. LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A COLD FRONT DROP OUT OF CANADA AND BRINGS ANOTHER SHOT FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH THE CANADIAN AIR MASS. THE LATEST ECM/GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT WAVE WITH AN H85 CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN/NORTH DAKOTA BORDER LATE IN THE WEEK...SWEEPING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME FRAME. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1253 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A 850MB TROUGH FROM NEAR LONG PRAIRIE NORTHEAST TO MOOSE LAKE. THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT/850MB TROUGH AXIS MOVE SLOWLY EAST. A MIX OF CONDITIONS FROM LIFR TO VFR WILL OCCUR WITH THE LIFR IN THE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BEHIND THE FRONT. FOG HAS FORMED THERE. FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN SPOTS...BUT SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY MONDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH GOOD MIXING. WE DO EXPECT A CU FIELD TO DEVELOP...BUT IT WILL BE VFR. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 47 66 48 59 / 0 0 50 60 INL 41 69 50 70 / 0 0 10 20 BRD 49 72 53 67 / 0 20 60 60 HYR 47 73 50 68 / 0 10 30 70 ASX 47 66 49 61 / 0 0 30 70 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MELDE SHORT TERM...STEWART LONG TERM...GRANING AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
1102 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 .UPDATE...OVERALL...THE GOING FORECAST IS IN DECENT SHAPE WITH THE MAIN FOCUS FOR BEST PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SW/W AREAS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE ACTIVITY SIMILAR TO THE PREV TWO DAYS. AFTER FURTHER INVESTIGATION OF THE MOST RECENT DATA...HAVE TWEAKED POPS ACROSS THE CWA FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE SW WAS INCREASED TO LIKELY VALUES WHILE THE E HALF WAS LOWERED TO 20% (ISOLATED) AS THERE WILL BE A STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA AND THE BEST MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE FAVORED LOW LEVEL COLD POOL PROPAGATION WILL HELP FOCUS PRECIP OVER THE SW/W. THERE IS ALREADY A NICE ARCHING BAND OVER S LA WITH A MORE DISTINCT SE/NW MOTION. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...BUT GUSTY STORMS ARE LIKELY DUE TO MOMENTUM TRANSFER AND SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZED COLD POOLS SLIDING TO THE NW. THE WEATHER GRIDS WERE TIGHTENED UP A BIT TO SHOW CLEANER TIMING AND POPS WERE LOWERED FOR THIS EVE TO SHOW LESS ACTIVITY AND A QUICKER END TO WHAT MAY BE LINGERING. /CME/ && .AVIATION...A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE. LIFR/IFR CATEGORY STRATUS/FOG ARE MIXING OUT WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND EXPECT VFR CATEGORY CU FIELD TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. BETTER AFTN TSRA CHANCES WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL BE AT GLH/JAN/HKS...MOST LIKELY AFTER 2000Z AND DIMINISHING WITH SUNSET. LOOK FOR A REPEAT OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LIFR/IFR STRATUS MIXING OUT BY LATE TUES MORNING. /EC/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015/ SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE BUILDING UPPER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SE CONUS WILL BE AN INCREASING FACTOR FOR OUR REGION WHILE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AND SRLY FLOW FEEDS TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION AND POINTS FURTHER W. DUE TO GOOD LOW LEVEL SRLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND GOOD MOISTURE/THETA E ADVECTION TODAY...EXPECT A SIMILAR PATTERN TO YESTERDAY WITH RAIN A LITTLE FURTHER E THAN GUIDANCE MAY BE INDICATING. HRRR WAS PICKING UP ON THIS IDEA TOO AND INTRODUCED SOME POPS IN THE NE ALSO. HEAVY RAIN/GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON BUT DUE TO MEAGER LAPSE RATES EXPECT MAINLY SUB SEVERE WIND GUSTS AS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP IN S MS AND PROGRESS TO THE W/NW. LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND 15-20KTS WITH SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE SW IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY SO ESPECIALLY IN SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA WE CAN NOT RULE OUT POTENTIAL FOR A STRAY SEVERE STORM...BUT EVEN HERE THIS POTENTIAL IS TOO CONDITIONAL TO MENTION IN THE HWO. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ALONG AND SW OF A LINE FROM GREENVILLE TO MERIDIAN BUT WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME STORMS IN NE MS. AS WE PROGRESS INTO TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO GRADUALLY EXPAND/BUILD TO THE W MORE INTO THE REGION AND GRADUALLY SHIFT RAIN CHANCES FURTHER W WHILE PUSHING STORM CHANCES INTO THE DELTA REGION AS WE PROGRESS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. DUE TO SOME DECENT WIND FIELDS ALOFT AND SIMILAR THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ALONG/W OF I-55 CORRIDOR...CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME STRONG STORMS AND POSSIBLY A SEVERE STORM OR TWO MAINLY W OF THE MS RIVER ON TUESDAY. TROPICS: MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL TRACK OF THE DEVELOPING TROPICAL SFC LOW IN THE GULF AND THAT IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NW AND MOVE AROUND THE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING INTO OUR REGION. DUE TO SOME GRADUALLY INCREASING WIND FIELDS IN THE W/SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN/SEVERE WEATHER IF THE RIDGE DOES NOT BUILD IN AS STRONG AND THE SYSTEM TURNS SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE N THAN W/NW. FOR FORECAST ELEMENTS...WENT NEAR MAV FOR HIGHS/LOWS BUT MADE SOME SMALL CHANGES. LOWERED HIGHS IN THE CENTRAL/SW AREAS SLIGHTLY DUE TO BETTER RAIN/STORM CHANCES AND SIMILAR FOR TOMORROW ALONG/W OF I-55 DUE TO CLOUDS/RAIN CHANCES TO THE W AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS IN. SKY COVER WENT NEAR RAW GUIDANCE. /DC/ LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...WHEREVER EXACTLY THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN THE GULF MAKES LANDFALL IT WILL LIKELY BE HEADED NORTH TOWARD THE ARKLATEX REGION ON WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE PATH OF THE SYSTEM REMAINING WELL WEST OF OUR REGION AS IT RECURVES INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM THROUGH LATER THIS WEEK IS GROWING. ENHANCED TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING FAR TO THE EAST OF THE CIRCULATION WILL PROBABLY CONCENTRATE LOCAL RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY IN MY FAR WESTERN ZONES WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING INFLUENCE EXPANDING IN FROM THE EAST TRYING TO DRY THINGS OUT AND HEAT THINGS UP ELSEWHERE. NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY SOME LOCATIONS EAST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 90S ON WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS MAY START BREAKING DOWN JUST A BIT WITH BETTER GULF MOISTURE ADVECTION (DUE TO LESS RECIRCULATING OF DRY-ISH LOW LEVEL AIR) CONTRIBUTING TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE TYPICALLY- HOT 90 TO 94 DEGREE RANGE WITH PLENTY OF HUMIDITY TO INCREASE PEAK INDICES TO NEAR 100. MODEL CONSENSUS STILL SUGGESTS A DECENT COLD FRONT GAINING STEAM IN THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST THIS COMING WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS UNFORTUNATELY UNCERTAINTY NOW ON WHETHER IT WILL MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH. IF IT DOES NOT GET THIS FAR SOUTH THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HEAT TO REALLY BUILD GOING INTO NEXT WEEK WITH NOT ENOUGH RAIN AROUND TO COOL THINGS OFF MUCH. LET US HOPE THE FRONT MAKES IT HERE. /BB/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... JACKSON 91 72 92 72 / 23 6 18 10 MERIDIAN 92 69 92 71 / 17 4 10 8 VICKSBURG 91 72 90 73 / 37 7 26 17 HATTIESBURG 91 73 92 71 / 26 4 18 8 NATCHEZ 89 73 88 73 / 56 17 29 16 GREENVILLE 93 74 91 74 / 31 6 24 21 GREENWOOD 92 73 92 73 / 24 6 13 13 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...NONE. LA...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ CME/EC/DC/BB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
435 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE BUILDING UPPER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SE CONUS WILL BE AN INCREASING FACTOR FOR OUR REGION WHILE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AND SRLY FLOW FEEDS TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION AND POINTS FURTHER W. DUE TO GOOD LOW LEVEL SRLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND GOOD MOISTURE/THETA E ADVECTION TODAY...EXPECT A SIMILAR PATTERN TO YESTERDAY WITH RAIN A LITTLE FURTHER E THAN GUIDANCE MAY BE INDICATING. HRRR WAS PICKING UP ON THIS IDEA TOO AND INTRODUCED SOME POPS IN THE NE ALSO. HEAVY RAIN/GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON BUT DUE TO MEAGER LAPSE RATES EXPECT MAINLY SUB SEVERE WIND GUSTS AS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP IN S MS AND PROGRESS TO THE W/NW. LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND 15-20KTS WITH SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE SW IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY SO ESPECIALLY IN SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA WE CAN NOT RULE OUT POTENTIAL FOR A STRAY SEVERE STORM...BUT EVEN HERE THIS POTENTIAL IS TOO CONDITIONAL TO MENTION IN THE HWO. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ALONG AND SW OF A LINE FROM GREENVILLE TO MERIDIAN BUT WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME STORMS IN NE MS. AS WE PROGRESS INTO TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO GRADUALLY EXPAND/BUILD TO THE W MORE INTO THE REGION AND GRADUALLY SHIFT RAIN CHANCES FURTHER W WHILE PUSHING STORM CHANCES INTO THE DELTA REGION AS WE PROGRESS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. DUE TO SOME DECENT WIND FIELDS ALOFT AND SIMILAR THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ALONG/W OF I-55 CORRIDOR...CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME STRONG STORMS AND POSSIBLY A SEVERE STORM OR TWO MAINLY W OF THE MS RIVER ON TUESDAY. TROPICS: MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL TRACK OF THE DEVELOPING TROPICAL SFC LOW IN THE GULF AND THAT IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NW AND MOVE AROUND THE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING INTO OUR REGION. DUE TO SOME GRADUALLY INCREASING WIND FIELDS IN THE W/SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN/SEVERE WEATHER IF THE RIDGE DOES NOT BUILD IN AS STRONG AND THE SYSTEM TURNS SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE N THAN W/NW. FOR FORECAST ELEMENTS...WENT NEAR MAV FOR HIGHS/LOWS BUT MADE SOME SMALL CHANGES. LOWERED HIGHS IN THE CENTRAL/SW AREAS SLIGHTLY DUE TO BETTER RAIN/STORM CHANCES AND SIMILAR FOR TOMORROW ALONG/W OF I-55 DUE TO CLOUDS/RAIN CHANCES TO THE W AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS IN. SKY COVER WENT NEAR RAW GUIDANCE. /DC/ .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...WHEREVER EXACTLY THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN THE GULF MAKES LANDFALL IT WILL LIKELY BE HEADED NORTH TOWARD THE ARKLATEX REGION ON WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE PATH OF THE SYSTEM REMAINING WELL WEST OF OUR REGION AS IT RECURVES INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM THROUGH LATER THIS WEEK IS GROWING. ENHANCED TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING FAR TO THE EAST OF THE CIRCULATION WILL PROBABLY CONCENTRATE LOCAL RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY IN MY FAR WESTERN ZONES WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING INFLUENCE EXPANDING IN FROM THE EAST TRYING TO DRY THINGS OUT AND HEAT THINGS UP ELSEWHERE. NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY SOME LOCATIONS EAST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 90S ON WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS MAY START BREAKING DOWN JUST A BIT WITH BETTER GULF MOISTURE ADVECTION (DUE TO LESS RECIRCULATING OF DRY-ISH LOW LEVEL AIR) CONTRIBUTING TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE TYPICALLY- HOT 90 TO 94 DEGREE RANGE WITH PLENTY OF HUMIDITY TO INCREASE PEAK INDICES TO NEAR 100. MODEL CONSENSUS STILL SUGGESTS A DECENT COLD FRONT GAINING STEAM IN THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST THIS COMING WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS UNFORTUNATELY UNCERTAINTY NOW ON WHETHER IT WILL MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH. IF IT DOES NOT GET THIS FAR SOUTH THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HEAT TO REALLY BUILD GOING INTO NEXT WEEK WITH NOT ENOUGH RAIN AROUND TO COOL THINGS OFF MUCH. LET US HOPE THE FRONT MAKES IT HERE. /BB/ && .AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE KGLH/KGWO/KJAN/KHKS WHILE SOME LOW CIGS/VIS ARE IN THE VICINITY OF KMEI...WHILE LIFR CONDS ARE IN THE KHBG WITH LOW CIGS/VIS. EXPCT THESE SOME LOW STRATUS AND CIGS TO MOVE IN AFTER 15/10Z AT KJAN/KHKS AND SOME MVFR/IFR CONDS BEFORE CONDS IMPROVE AFTER 14Z. SOME OF THE FOG/LOW STRATUS AND IFR/LIFR CONDS WILL REMAIN AT KMEI/KHBG UNTIL AROUND 15/15-16Z TIMEFRAME. EXPECT WINDS FROM THE S AROUND 7-10KTS THIS AFTN. SOME VCTS ARE PSBL AROUND KHBG/KJAN/KHKS AROUND 15/18-20Z. /DC/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... JACKSON 91 72 92 72 / 33 13 18 10 MERIDIAN 92 69 92 71 / 25 12 10 8 VICKSBURG 91 72 90 73 / 37 22 26 17 HATTIESBURG 91 73 92 71 / 36 13 18 8 NATCHEZ 89 73 88 73 / 50 35 29 16 GREENVILLE 91 74 91 74 / 28 13 24 21 GREENWOOD 92 73 92 73 / 24 12 13 13 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...NONE. LA...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ DC/BB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
836 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2015 .UPDATE: Issued at 836 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2015 Went ahead and added Boone and Moniteau to the flash flood watch as parts of these counties have received between 0.5 and 1 inch of rainfall so far this evening. Theses two counties should see 2-4+ inches of rainfall over the next few days making flash flooding a real possibility. Otherwise, going forecast looks on track through tonight as showers and thunderstorms should continue. The latest runs of the HRRR continues to show precipitation regenerating over the central and southern part of the CWA through the night, albeit with weakening reflectivity. The RAP continues to show strong low level moisture convergence developing on the nose of a 30kt low level jet over the CWA. Britt && .SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 330 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2015 The warm and moisture rich air mass poised along and south of the front has responded to diurnal heating with SBCAPES of 2000-3000 J/KG throughout the warm sector, supporting the development of scattered to numerous showers and thundrstorms. The 12z KSGF raob shows the moisture continuing to deepen and increase with PW now at 2.01 inches with a tall skinny CAPE profile, characteristics favorable for very efficient rainfall production and high rainfall rates which has been observed with some of the current storms. The models show the boundary lifting northward tonight but I`m not all convinced of that solution given the high pressure to our north across the upper MS Valley. Regardless, several weak disturbances will track within the southwest flow aloft across the region and that combined with a broad region of lift and moisture convergence associated with the anticyclonically curved and veering southwesterly LLJ will continue to support waves of showers and thunderstorms tonight across mainly the southern half of the CWA. Glass .LONG TERM: (Wednesday through Next Tuesday) Issued at 330 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2015 Continued waves of showers and thunderstorms across the southern half of the CWA and the remnants of TS Bill are expected through the end of the week with potential for serious flooding, both flash flooding on small creeks and streams and potential for major flood levels of some of the larger rivers. The overall situation has changed little leading to increasing confidence. Still unknown will be the exact path of the remnant tropical low. From Wednesday into Thursday a parade of disturbances will track E/NE across the southern half of the CWA within the southwest flow aloft on the periphery of the upper high in the southeastern U.S.. At the same time the south-southwesterly LLJ will modulate periodically veering and strengthening, focusing a broad region of lift across the southern half of the CWA. The combo of the these features will result in continued waves of showers and thunderstorms with the high moisture content supporting high rainfall rates and heavy rainfall totals. The models are also suggestive of an arcing convergent zone across southern MO emanating from the remnant low in the Thursday night-Friday time frame which could further enhance the rainfall potential. The current NHC official forecast has the low moving across south- central and southeast MO into southern IL Friday into Friday evening which appears to be in the center of the guidance suite. It appears by Saturday morning the remnant low will have passed to our east with drier weather expected until another cold front enters the area late Saturday night into Sunday. Still thinking we will see a swath of rainfall averaging 5-7 inches over the next 5 days centered near a Rolla-Waterloo-Salem axis, with the highest rainfall period centered in the Thursday night-Friday time frame. Local rainfall totals could be quite a bit higher. Have expanded the Flash Flood Watch until 7 pm Friday evening as a result of this anticipated scenario. Glass && .AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening) Issued at 623 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2015 Periods of rain and embedded thunderstorms will continue overnight as stalled front begins to slowly lift north. Expect MVFR and occasionally IFR conditions. Rain should diminish tomorrow morning before refiring with heat of the day tomorrow. Specifics for KSTL: Rain will continue much of the night with some embedded thunderstorms. Expect MVFR to IFR conditions all night before the rain diminishes tomorrow morning. Thunderstorms will redevelop tomorrow afternoon. CVKING && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES: MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday evening FOR Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO- Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-St. Charles MO-St. Francois MO-St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Warren MO- Washington MO. IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday evening FOR Bond IL-Calhoun IL- Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL- Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-Randolph IL- St. Clair IL-Washington IL. && $$ WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1139 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2015 .UPDATE: Issued at 1001 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2015 Still expecting scattered showers and thunderstorms the rest of the night over the area. Currently there is one area moving east from central Missouri and another moving north from south central Missouri. Latest runs of the RAP show pockets of low level moisture convergence over the region throughout the night which justifies the continued chance. Otherwise, do expect much fall in temperatures as current readings are close to the dewpoints. Conditions will remain very humid. Britt && .SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 350 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2015 Diurnal heating of the very moist air mass across the region has yielded SBCAPES of 2000-2500 J/KG this afternoon and scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Anomalously high water content with PWs above 90th percentile at 1.8+ inches is resulting in very efficient rainfall production and have seen a few reports of rates in excess of 4 in/hr, however longevity has been only on the order of less than 30 minutes given scattered coverage. There are no evident upper level features aiding current storms, thus expect them to follow a strong diurnally driven cycle with coverage rapidly decreasing early this evening. From the later evening into the overnight hours have dramatically reduced pops the southern half of the CWA and highest in the chance range across the northeast third of the CWA along the periphery of the stronger southwesterly and slightly confluent low level flow. Glass .LONG TERM: (Monday through Next Sunday) Issued at 350 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2015 A very wet pattern is still in the offing for the upcoming week with the best apparent time frame for widespread heavy rainfall in the Tuesday-Wednesday Night time frame. A sw-ne oriented cold front will be encroaching on the northern CWA on Monday afternoon and slowly progressing southward Monday night into Tuesday when best indications are it will become quasi-stationary bi-secting the CWA. Meanwhile during this same time frame, a steady series of weak disturbances within the sw flow aloft on the periphery of the upper level high, combined with the moisture rich/buoyant air mass across the region and the front will result in increasingly widespread showers and thunderstorms. Instability and deep layer shear across the region on Monday afternoon and early evening will be sufficient for possible pulse storms and multicell clusters with a damaging wind threat, while the high moisture content will continue to support heavy downpours. Will probably eventually need a flash flood watch in the aforementioned Tuesday-Wednesday night period. Unknown is the impact of current TD#1 near the Yucatan. Models diverge on the speed and location but the general consensus is this will strengthen and track NW into TX then track north with the remnant low moving northeast along the periphery of the upper high centered in the southeastern U.S.. A general range of solutions has the center generally moving across southeast MO and southern IL on Thursday with greatest impacts along and to the right of the center. High level moisture however will provide a boost to the already high H2O content in the midweek time frame and the aforementioned heavy rainfall potential. Glass && .AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night) Issued at 1134 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2015 Activity has diminished once again, though some scattered activity not out of question for KCOU and KUIN overnight. Otherwise, best chances will be during the day on Monday everywhere but hard to pin down coverage and timing, so just have vicinity thunderstorms after 18z Monday. Then dry things out after 03z Tuesday. As for winds, to remain from the south to southwest through the forecast period, becoming light and variable by Monday evening. Specifics for KSTL: Best chances will be during the day on Monday but hard to pin down coverage and timing, so just have vicinity thunderstorms after 18z Monday. Then dry things out after 03z Tuesday. As for winds, to remain from the south to southwest through the forecast period, becoming light and variable by 03z Tuesday. Byrd && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES: MO...NONE. IL...NONE. && $$ WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
852 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015 .UPDATE... WEAK SHORTWAVE IN A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW MOVED INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON AND GENERATED SOME THUNDERSTORMS. CAPES ROSE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 40KTS WHICH WAS ENOUGH TO MAKE THE STORMS PRETTY STRONG. A COUPLE OF THE STORMS DID TURN SEVERE. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE DOES DECREASE THE CAPE LATE THIS EVENING...BUT HOLDS ONTO THE SHEAR. WOULD EXPECT A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND WITH THE CONVECTION AS IT MOVES EAST TO SOUTHEAST...AND ARE SEEING THAT. LAST BIT OF THUNDERSTORMS NOW OVER SOUTHEAST BIG HORN COUNTY AND SHERIDAN COUNTY...WHICH IS THE REMNANTS OF THE STORM THAT MOVED THROUGH SOUTHWEST YELLOWSTONE COUNTY. MORE STABLE HAS MOVED INTO THE NORTHWEST AND HAVE THUS REMOVED POPS FROM MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA. RAISED POPS OVER SHERIDAN COUNTY TO REFLECT RADAR TRENDS. THE SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT...AND THUS AGREE WITH ZERO POPS OVERNIGHT FOR ALL BUT MOUNTAINOUS LOCATIONS. TWH && .SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU... WEAK CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MT IN RESPONSE TO AFTN HEATING AND AREA OF PV IN WNW FLOW ALOFT. PRESSURE FALLS NOTED IN SOUTH CENTRAL MT WILL HELP TO SHIFT WINDS IN OUR CENTRAL PARTS TO THE EAST...SETTING UP A CONVERGENT AREA WHICH SHOULD BE FAVORED FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AS ACTIVITY BEGINS TO SPREAD OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN. BILLINGS DEW PT HAS FALLEN TO 45F SO WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE THE IMPACTS FROM DRIER AIR SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONVECTION OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THOUGH THE LOWER DEW PTS ARE KEEPING SBCAPES AT MODEST VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG AS OF THE 19Z MESOANALYSIS...SO TSTM ACTIVITY MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS HIGH RES MODELS ARE SUGGESTING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. PEAK POTENTIAL FOR BILLINGS WILL BE 22-01Z. OUR EAST IS STILL SEEING EFFECTS FROM LARGE AREA OF STRATUS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND BAKER IS STILL IN THE 50S...SO HAVE SCALED BACK POPS INTO THIS EVENING. FOCUS OF ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT 6-8 HRS WILL BE OVER OUR WEST HALF. ONLY OTHER ISSUE TONIGHT IS FOG IN OUR EAST. DEW PT SPREAD IS ONLY 4F AT BAKER AND HRRR IS SUGGESTIVE OF FOG LATE TONIGHT SO WILL ADD PATCHY FOG TO FALLON/CARTER. SFC RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SHIFT SOUTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE ADVECTION TO COMMENCE UP THE HIGH PLAINS. WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ZONAL RIDGING BUT WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND EVENING FRONTAL PASSAGE WE SHOULD SEE ISOLD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE WITHIN THE MORE DEEPLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA OVER WY/ SD/NE. TEMPS TOMORROW SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S. MORE INTERESTING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR US EMERGES THURSDAY AS WE CONTINUE TO MOIST ADVECT ALLOWING FOR PWATS TO RISE TO NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE AN INCH ACROSS OUR EAST. NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A LATE DAY PACIFIC SHORTWAVE BUT THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF RUNS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE...ALLOWING FOR 700MB TEMPS TO RISE TO NEAR +14C IN OUR SOUTH. AS A RESULT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE NORTH OF OUR CWA...OR AT THE VERY LEAST ACROSS OUR NORTH AND EAST PARTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY TO BE HIGHEST ACROSS OUR NORTH. IF THE NAM IS CORRECT IN SHOWING 2000+ J/KG OF CAPE ALONG WITH PLENTIFUL SHEAR...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT AN EPISODE OF SEVERE WX. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN HWO AND GRAPHIC. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL TAKE ANOTHER STEP UP WITH HIGHS FURTHER INTO THE 80S ON THURSDAY...AND MAYBE NEAR 90F IN OUR SOUTH SUCH AS NEAR SHERIDAN. JKL .LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE... EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT TO END THE WEEK INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND BUT DIVERGE BY MONDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A ZONAL FLOW WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ONTO THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. THIS LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A FEW DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BE ZONAL SUNDAY WITH SOME DRIER AIR POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN LESSENING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LOW AND TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT DIFFER IN TIMING BUT SOMETIME DURING THE MONDAY OR TUESDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE AREA. AS A RESULT...THE MONDAY/TUESDAY PERIOD LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST SHOT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S FOR MOST DAYS. HOOLEY && .AVIATION... AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS SHERIDAN COUNTY THROUGH LATE EVENING. THIS COULD BRIEFLY PRODUCE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 KNOTS AT SHERIDAN. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. REIMER && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 053/082 058/085 060/082 056/076 052/080 057/087 058/082 12/T 23/T 34/T 43/T 21/B 11/B 12/T LVM 047/081 050/083 053/082 048/074 046/081 050/087 051/083 22/T 33/T 33/T 42/T 11/B 11/B 12/T HDN 053/084 056/086 058/084 056/076 050/080 055/088 057/083 22/T 23/T 34/T 44/T 21/B 11/B 12/T MLS 053/082 059/083 060/083 055/076 050/075 055/084 055/080 13/T 34/T 44/T 44/T 22/T 12/T 22/T 4BQ 051/081 057/083 059/083 055/076 049/075 054/087 054/080 23/T 34/T 44/T 44/T 21/B 11/B 11/B BHK 047/078 055/077 058/082 055/075 049/073 052/081 054/076 12/T 34/T 54/T 44/T 22/T 12/T 22/T SHR 049/079 053/086 055/081 052/073 047/075 050/086 052/080 43/T 22/T 24/T 44/T 31/B 11/B 12/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
728 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 .SYNOPSIS... DEVELOPING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES. THIS TREND OF DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY...AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 727 PM EDT TUESDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/WX, SKY AND TEMPS/DEWPOINTS THROUGH 03Z. SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS, AND THERE`S BEEN ENOUGH LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO SUPPORT A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. MESOANALYSIS BASED ON RAP FIELDS SUGGESTS CAPE VALUES UNDER 800 J/KG IN THE AREA OF CLEARING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS INTO THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THAT`S LEADING TO RELATIVELY WEAK UPDRAFTS AND STORM TOPS ROUGHLY UNDER 20 KFT, NOT SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIGHTNING PRODUCTION. I STILL CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER, THOUGH THREAT OF THIS WILL BE QUICKLY LESSENING AFTER SUNSET. THEREFORE, OPTED TO ADJUST POPS/WX TO GO WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 01Z, AND THEN SHOWERS THEREAFTER. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TO BE MARKED BY INCREASE IN NORTH WINDS AS WELL AS A SHARP DROPOFF IN SURFACE DEWPOINTS - ALREADY IN THE U40S/L50S - TO ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. MID 60S CROSSOVER TEMPS SHOULD BE EASILY MET AND GROUND IS WET, THOUGH COMBINATION OF BL DRYING AND FLOW ABOVE 20 KTS MAY PRECLUDE VALLEY FOG FROM DEVELOPING UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUESDAY... FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS EVENING WILL BE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING AND FOG POTENTIAL. WATER VAPOR SHOWS LARGE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT APPROACHING THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS AFTN BEHIND S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PLUME OF PW`S AROUND 1.75". THIS DRY SLOT WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD OUR REGION TONIGHT...WITH ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS DISSIPATING AROUND SUNSET FROM THE LACK OF MOISTURE ALOFT AND LIMITED INSTABILITY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHC POPS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA THRU 02Z. SFC HIGH PRES WEST OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THRU 06Z WILL CONT TO PRODUCE NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 15 MPH...LIMITING FOG PRODUCTION. HOWEVER...EXPECT GRADIENT TO DECREASE AFT 06Z...WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT LIKELY ACROSS THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF THE DACKS AND PARTS OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL AND SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG ACRS VT VALLEYS AS SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND GOOD MIXING THRU 09Z...SOME EXPECT PATCHY FOG NEAR SUNRISE. TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S COLDER VALLEYS OF THE DACKS/NEK TO MID 50S CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN EXPECTED THRU THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL FEATURE FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH THE NE CONUS DOMINATED BY THE NORTHERN STREAM JET. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT CHANGEABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH A COUPLE DRY DAYS...FOLLOWED BY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. LIKE THE PREVIOUS 7 TO 10 DAYS...INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL KEEP ORGANIZED SVR WEATHER THREAT AT A MINIMUM. 1021MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON WEDS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS RANGE BTWN 9-11C ACROSS OUR CWA...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE M/U 60S TO MID 70S WARMER VALLEYS...WITH DRY SFC DWPTS. AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED...EXPECT SOME FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN ON WEDS AFTN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH AT 4 TO 8 MPH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SHIFT INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY 12Z THURSDAY IN THE FAST CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. THE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THIS SFC HIGH WILL HELP PUSH WARMER TEMPS AND INCREASED MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR CWA ON THURSDAY. LATEST 12Z NAM/GFS SHOW A NARROW AXIS OF 400 TO 800 J/KG OF CAPE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN NY ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRNT. LIKELY MANY OTHER FROPA THIS WARM SEASON...THE INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT OVERALL ORGANIZED SVR WX THREAT ACROSS OUR CWA. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR OF 40 TO 45 KNOTS ASSOCIATED WITH 500MB JET OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS ACRS OUR NORTHERN CWA ON THURS EVENING...BUT BEST INSTABILITY AXIS IS LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC STATES. WILL CONT TO MENTION CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED....ASSOCIATED WITH GOOD HEIGHT FALLS FROM DIGGING TROF AND SFC COLD FRNT. A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF TIMING OF FRONT IS EARLIER AND GREATER INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP ACROSS OUR CWA. GIVEN...STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW...GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT VERY ISOLATED. PW VALUES SURGE BTWN 1.25 AND 1.50" AHEAD OF APPROACHING BOUNDARY...SO A FEW LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWN POURS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH ANY CONVECTION ON THURSDAY EVENING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM SEVERAL DEGREES WITH VALUES BTWN 12-14C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE M/U 70S MTNS TO LOWER 80S VALLEYS. TEMPS COULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER IF MORE SUN DEVELOPS THAN CURRENTLY FCST. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 338 PM EDT TUESDAY... THE EXTENDED BEGINS WITH A COLD FRONT UNDERWAY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING ON FRIDAY COMING TO AN END BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL USHER IN SLIGHT COOLER AIR AS MAX TEMPS WILL WARM ONLY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SO I`VE GONE A BIT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. IF THE TRENDS CONTINUE WITH COOLER TEMPS DURING THE DAY, THEN ITS POSSIBLE WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME FROST OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. CURRENTLY FORECASTED TEMPS ARE MID TO UPPER 40S WITH LOW 40S IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. INTO SATURDAY THE HIGH WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST AND DEVELOP MODERATE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WHICH WILL SERVE TO REBOUND TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE NEXT WEATHER FEATURE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE MIDWEST AND COMBINING WITH A 700MB SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA. AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MENTIONED THE MODELS DIFFER ON DETAILS OF TIMING/TRACK WHICH IS PRETTY TYPICAL FOR STRONG ZONAL FLOW REGIMES GIVEN HOW QUICKLY SYSTEMS CAN SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION. THE NET RESULT IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES FAIRLY SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF SHOWERS THRU 03Z, THEN VFR WITH MVFR/IFR MIST INTO OVERNIGHT HRS, BECOMING ALL VFR BY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS (A POSSIBLE RUMBLE OF THUNDER) MOVE EAST THROUGH 03Z WITH RAPID CLEARING OF SKIES IN ITS WAKE. STRONG NORTHERLY GRADIENT SHOULD INITIALLY BRING AN INCREASE IN NORTH WINDS (10-12 KTS) THROUGH MIDNIGHT, THEN WINDS BEGIN TO TAPER DOWN AS GRADIENT RELAXES. I`VE SHOWN 2-4 SM BR AT MSS, SLK AND MPV BUT NOT UNTIL LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT AS DRYING AND SUFFICIENTLY STRONG ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD HOLD OFF ON FOG DEVELOPMENT. ANY MORNING FOG/MIST BURNS OFF AFTER 12Z. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD WITH VFR EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY, WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS. OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...MORNING IFR/LIFR FOG WILL GIVE WAY TO DAYTIME VFR AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE. 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION. && .MARINE... AS OF 725 PM EDT TUESDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE BROAD LAKE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TABER NEAR TERM...TABER/LOCONTO SHORT TERM...TABER LONG TERM...DEAL AVIATION...LOCONTO MARINE...RJS/LOCONTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
342 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THIS. THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL BRING AN ANOTHER CHANCE AT POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. THERE IS ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA BY MID WEEK WILL WE RETURN TO DRIER CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1246 AM EDT MONDAY...JUST A FEW TWEAKS TO THE GOING FORECAST. RADAR SHOWING A GROWING AREA OF SHOWERS EXTENDING WELL NORTH INTO ONTARIO THAT ARE STEADILY MOVING EAST AND ARE NOW ENTERING THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS RESULTING FROM WARM FRONTAL LIFT. SHOULD START RAINING LIGHTLY AT KMSS AND KSLK WITHIN THE HOUR. SHOWERS SHOULD MAINLY BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE, THOUGH THERE ARE SIGNS THAT THERE COULD BE SOME MODERATE SHOWERS AS WELL. LATEST HRRR USED TO AUGMENT THE LOCATION AND TIME OF THE PRECIPITATION. LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 AS CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL PREVENT TOO MUCH OF A DROP. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 352 PM EDT SUNDAY...MONDAY MORNING WILL SERVE AS THE LULL BETWEEN THE IMPULSES OF ENERGY FROM THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MOVE OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WE WILL SEE SOME SLIGHT DRIER AIR FEEDING IN FROM THE WEST AS A NORTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN CANADA BEGINS TO PHASE WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE NET RESULT FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY IS THAT THERE WILL BE BREAKS DURING THE DAY WITH NO SHOWERS. THE POTENTIALLY PATCHY CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR SOME SURFACE HEATING TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL BEGIN TO UNSTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. AS THE MOISTURE FROM THE PHASING SYSTEMS MOVES INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY SOME CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AND WITH 30-40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND 300-500 J/KG OF INSTABILITY THERE COULD BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. AT THE MOMENT I DON`T FEEL THE OVERLAP IS ALL THAT GREAT BUT SPC HAS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE MAIN THREAT AS STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS. AS OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE I HAVEN`T INCLUDED ANY MENTION OF ENHANCED WORDING FOR THE SHOWERS ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. TUESDAY WILL BE THE MORE INTERESTING OF THE TWO DAYS IN THE EARLY WEEK AS THE PHASED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE REGION. ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST REGION AS THE FRONT DRAWS CLOSER TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. THAT ENERGY AND DYNAMIC FORCING WILL DESTABILIZE MOST OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ALONG WITH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AS ONCE AGAIN PATCHES OF SCATTED CLOUDS WILL BE OVER THE AREA. AS THE FRONT MOVES IN CLOSER A STRONG 50-70KT JET WILL BE PRESENT AT 500MB. THIS COMBINED WITH THE LIGHT WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL CAUSE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. AS THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE PHASED FRONT MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA THERE WILL BE DECENT CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WITH THE NAM FORECASTING 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE WITH MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS WELL. THIS COMBINATION OF LIFT FROM THE FRONT, INSTABILITY FROM THE SCATTERED CLOUDS AND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW LEVELS COULD LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR VERMONT AND PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK. TIMING RIGHT NOW BASED ON THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE CONVECTION WILL BEGIN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE THROUGH IN THE EARLY EVENING. WITH ONLY MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXPECT THE MAIN THREAT TO ONCE AGAIN BE DAMAGING WINDS WHERE SOME TREES OR POWER LINES COULD BE BLOWN DOWN. THERE IS INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS SO WITH THIS UPDATE I DID GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE THE MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE A CHALLENGE BASED ON WHERE THE DRY SLOT IN BETWEEN THE WAVES OF ENERGY WILL REACH. AS OF THE 12Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE I ANTICIPATE THE DRIER AIR WONT REACH THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SO EXPECT A ROUGHLY 10-15 DEGREE SPREAD IN MAX TEMPS FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN THE UPPER 70S AND SOUTHERN VERMONT IN THE MID TO LOW 60S. OVERNIGHT ON MONDAY TEMPS WILL HOLD FAIRLY NORMAL IN IN THE MID 50S EAST OF THE GREENS AND IN THE LOW 60S IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. THEN TUESDAY WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLEARING THERE IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO ALLOW FOR DAYTIME HEATING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S BUT THE IDEA WILL BE THAT TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE THE FRONT FINALLY CLEARS THE AREA BRINGING SOME COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTH DROPPING TEMPERATURES TUESDAY EVENING BY ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES FROM MONDAY EVENING. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 342 AM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE PATTERN CHANGE EVIDENT AS WE PROGRESS FROM MID-WEEK ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH NRN NY/NEW ENGLAND REMAINING EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ZONAL WESTERLIES. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PASSAGES TO OCCUR EVERY 2 TO 3 DAYS THAT WILL FOSTER ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES BUT KEEP EXCESSIVE HEAT WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. FORECAST TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF LATE SPRING SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD, SHOWING HIGHS IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 WITH CUSTOMARY VARIABILITY. THE BEST SHOT OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDER WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND THEN AGAIN BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND ENERGY STREAMING EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL SOLUTIONS ARE SUFFERING TO SOME EXTENT FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE LARGE-SCALE MASS FIELDS OF THIS LATTER SYSTEM. THUS QPF/POP/TEMP FORECASTS HAVE SLIGHTLY LOWER CONFIDENCE AS WE PROGRESS FROM SATURDAY ONWARD INTO SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...MIX OF VFR/MVFR TODAY WITH PATCHY LIGHT RAIN THROUGH 12-14Z TIME FRAME, ENDING THEREAFTER. BLOCKED FLOW AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP BKN/OVC SKIES ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 12Z WITH SOME LINGERING PATCHY MVFR POSSIBLE DESPITE -RA ENDING. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT, THOUGH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT KPBG AND AT KBTV/KRUT/KMPV. OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 06Z TUESDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR RAIN SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY KRUT. 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE. PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KRUT/KSLK/KMPV. 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH SCT MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN RAIN SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE. 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN BR/FG, HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AT KMPV/KSLK. 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MVFR/SCATTERED IFR IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEAL NEAR TERM...NEILES/SISSON SHORT TERM...DEAL LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...JMG/MV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
119 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THIS. THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL BRING AN ANOTHER CHANCE AT POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. THERE IS ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA BY MID WEEK WILL WE RETURN TO DRIER CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1246 AM EDT MONDAY...JUST A FEW TWEAKS TO THE GOING FORECAST. RADAR SHOWING A GROWING AREA OF SHOWERS EXTENDING WELL NORTH INTO ONTARIO THAT ARE STEADILY MOVING EAST AND ARE NOW ENTERING THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS RESULTING FROM WARM FRONTAL LIFT. SHOULD START RAINING LIGHTLY AT KMSS AND KSLK WITHIN THE HOUR. SHOWERS SHOULD MAINLY BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE, THOUGH THERE ARE SIGNS THAT THERE COULD BE SOME MODERATE SHOWERS AS WELL. LATEST HRRR USED TO AUGMENT THE LOCATION AND TIME OF THE PRECIPITATION. LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 AS CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL PREVENT TOO MUCH OF A DROP. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 352 PM EDT SUNDAY...MONDAY MORNING WILL SERVE AS THE LULL BETWEEN THE IMPULSES OF ENERGY FROM THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MOVE OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WE WILL SEE SOME SLIGHT DRIER AIR FEEDING IN FROM THE WEST AS A NORTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN CANADA BEGINS TO PHASE WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE NET RESULT FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY IS THAT THERE WILL BE BREAKS DURING THE DAY WITH NO SHOWERS. THE POTENTIALLY PATCHY CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR SOME SURFACE HEATING TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL BEGIN TO UNSTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. AS THE MOISTURE FROM THE PHASING SYSTEMS MOVES INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY SOME CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AND WITH 30-40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND 300-500 J/KG OF INSTABILITY THERE COULD BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. AT THE MOMENT I DON`T FEEL THE OVERLAP IS ALL THAT GREAT BUT SPC HAS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE MAIN THREAT AS STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS. AS OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE I HAVEN`T INCLUDED ANY MENTION OF ENHANCED WORDING FOR THE SHOWERS ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. TUESDAY WILL BE THE MORE INTERESTING OF THE TWO DAYS IN THE EARLY WEEK AS THE PHASED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE REGION. ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST REGION AS THE FRONT DRAWS CLOSER TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. THAT ENERGY AND DYNAMIC FORCING WILL DESTABILIZE MOST OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ALONG WITH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AS ONCE AGAIN PATCHES OF SCATTED CLOUDS WILL BE OVER THE AREA. AS THE FRONT MOVES IN CLOSER A STRONG 50-70KT JET WILL BE PRESENT AT 500MB. THIS COMBINED WITH THE LIGHT WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL CAUSE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. AS THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE PHASED FRONT MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA THERE WILL BE DECENT CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WITH THE NAM FORECASTING 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE WITH MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS WELL. THIS COMBINATION OF LIFT FROM THE FRONT, INSTABILITY FROM THE SCATTERED CLOUDS AND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW LEVELS COULD LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR VERMONT AND PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK. TIMING RIGHT NOW BASED ON THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE CONVECTION WILL BEGIN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE THROUGH IN THE EARLY EVENING. WITH ONLY MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXPECT THE MAIN THREAT TO ONCE AGAIN BE DAMAGING WINDS WHERE SOME TREES OR POWER LINES COULD BE BLOWN DOWN. THERE IS INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS SO WITH THIS UPDATE I DID GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE THE MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE A CHALLENGE BASED ON WHERE THE DRY SLOT IN BETWEEN THE WAVES OF ENERGY WILL REACH. AS OF THE 12Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE I ANTICIPATE THE DRIER AIR WONT REACH THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SO EXPECT A ROUGHLY 10-15 DEGREE SPREAD IN MAX TEMPS FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN THE UPPER 70S AND SOUTHERN VERMONT IN THE MID TO LOW 60S. OVERNIGHT ON MONDAY TEMPS WILL HOLD FAIRLY NORMAL IN IN THE MID 50S EAST OF THE GREENS AND IN THE LOW 60S IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. THEN TUESDAY WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLEARING THERE IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO ALLOW FOR DAYTIME HEATING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S BUT THE IDEA WILL BE THAT TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE THE FRONT FINALLY CLEARS THE AREA BRINGING SOME COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTH DROPPING TEMPERATURES TUESDAY EVENING BY ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES FROM MONDAY EVENING. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 351 PM EDT SUNDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT DRY AND HOLDS OFF BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. WILL OPT TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE KEPT IN CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND CANADA ON FRIDAY AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AND HAS A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND BRING THIS FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. INTERESTINGLY THE ECMWF MODEL TAKES THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE JUST EAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVES IT NORTHWEST INTO TEXAS...AND THEN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEFORE TURNING IT NORTHEAST UP THE OHIO VALLEY. THE ECMWF HAS THE REMNANTS OF THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY NEXT SUNDAY. EITHER WAY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS WANT TO BRING IN PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THUS...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...MIX OF VFR/MVFR TODAY WITH PATCHY LIGHT RAIN THROUGH 12-14Z TIME FRAME, ENDING THEREAFTER. BLOCKED FLOW AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP BKN/OVC SKIES ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 12Z WITH SOME LINGERING PATCHY MVFR POSSIBLE DESPITE -RA ENDING. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT, THOUGH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT KPBG AND AT KBTV/KRUT/KMPV. OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 06Z TUESDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR RAIN SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY KRUT. 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE. PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KRUT/KSLK/KMPV. 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH SCT MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN RAIN SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE. 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN BR/FG, HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AT KMPV/KSLK. 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MVFR/SCATTERED IFR IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEAL NEAR TERM...NEILES/SISSON SHORT TERM...DEAL LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...JMG/MV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1247 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THIS. THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL BRING AN ANOTHER CHANCE AT POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. THERE IS ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA BY MID WEEK WILL WE RETURN TO DRIER CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1246 AM EDT MONDAY...JUST A FEW TWEAKS TO THE GOING FORECAST. RADAR SHOWING A GROWING AREA OF SHOWERS EXTENDING WELL NORTH INTO ONTARIO THAT ARE STEADILY MOVING EAST AND ARE NOW ENTERING THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS RESULTING FROM WARM FRONTAL LIFT. SHOULD START RAINING LIGHTLY AT KMSS AND KSLK WITHIN THE HOUR. SHOWERS SHOULD MAINLY BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE, THOUGH THERE ARE SIGNS THAT THERE COULD BE SOME MODERATE SHOWERS AS WELL. LATEST HRRR USED TO AUGMENT THE LOCATION AND TIME OF THE PRECIPITATION. LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 AS CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL PREVENT TOO MUCH OF A DROP. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 352 PM EDT SUNDAY...MONDAY MORNING WILL SERVE AS THE LULL BETWEEN THE IMPULSES OF ENERGY FROM THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MOVE OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WE WILL SEE SOME SLIGHT DRIER AIR FEEDING IN FROM THE WEST AS A NORTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN CANADA BEGINS TO PHASE WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE NET RESULT FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY IS THAT THERE WILL BE BREAKS DURING THE DAY WITH NO SHOWERS. THE POTENTIALLY PATCHY CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR SOME SURFACE HEATING TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL BEGIN TO UNSTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. AS THE MOISTURE FROM THE PHASING SYSTEMS MOVES INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY SOME CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AND WITH 30-40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND 300-500 J/KG OF INSTABILITY THERE COULD BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. AT THE MOMENT I DON`T FEEL THE OVERLAP IS ALL THAT GREAT BUT SPC HAS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE MAIN THREAT AS STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS. AS OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE I HAVEN`T INCLUDED ANY MENTION OF ENHANCED WORDING FOR THE SHOWERS ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. TUESDAY WILL BE THE MORE INTERESTING OF THE TWO DAYS IN THE EARLY WEEK AS THE PHASED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE REGION. ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST REGION AS THE FRONT DRAWS CLOSER TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. THAT ENERGY AND DYNAMIC FORCING WILL DESTABILIZE MOST OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ALONG WITH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AS ONCE AGAIN PATCHES OF SCATTED CLOUDS WILL BE OVER THE AREA. AS THE FRONT MOVES IN CLOSER A STRONG 50-70KT JET WILL BE PRESENT AT 500MB. THIS COMBINED WITH THE LIGHT WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL CAUSE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. AS THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE PHASED FRONT MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA THERE WILL BE DECENT CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WITH THE NAM FORECASTING 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE WITH MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS WELL. THIS COMBINATION OF LIFT FROM THE FRONT, INSTABILITY FROM THE SCATTERED CLOUDS AND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW LEVELS COULD LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR VERMONT AND PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK. TIMING RIGHT NOW BASED ON THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE CONVECTION WILL BEGIN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE THROUGH IN THE EARLY EVENING. WITH ONLY MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXPECT THE MAIN THREAT TO ONCE AGAIN BE DAMAGING WINDS WHERE SOME TREES OR POWER LINES COULD BE BLOWN DOWN. THERE IS INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS SO WITH THIS UPDATE I DID GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE THE MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE A CHALLENGE BASED ON WHERE THE DRY SLOT IN BETWEEN THE WAVES OF ENERGY WILL REACH. AS OF THE 12Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE I ANTICIPATE THE DRIER AIR WONT REACH THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SO EXPECT A ROUGHLY 10-15 DEGREE SPREAD IN MAX TEMPS FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN THE UPPER 70S AND SOUTHERN VERMONT IN THE MID TO LOW 60S. OVERNIGHT ON MONDAY TEMPS WILL HOLD FAIRLY NORMAL IN IN THE MID 50S EAST OF THE GREENS AND IN THE LOW 60S IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. THEN TUESDAY WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLEARING THERE IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO ALLOW FOR DAYTIME HEATING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S BUT THE IDEA WILL BE THAT TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE THE FRONT FINALLY CLEARS THE AREA BRINGING SOME COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTH DROPPING TEMPERATURES TUESDAY EVENING BY ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES FROM MONDAY EVENING. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 351 PM EDT SUNDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT DRY AND HOLDS OFF BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. WILL OPT TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE KEPT IN CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND CANADA ON FRIDAY AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AND HAS A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND BRING THIS FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. INTERESTINGLY THE ECMWF MODEL TAKES THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE JUST EAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVES IT NORTHWEST INTO TEXAS...AND THEN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEFORE TURNING IT NORTHEAST UP THE OHIO VALLEY. THE ECMWF HAS THE REMNANTS OF THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY NEXT SUNDAY. EITHER WAY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS WANT TO BRING IN PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THUS...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO START THE PERIOD AS APPROACHING WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION BRINGING SHOWERS AFTER 02Z. EXPECT KSLK CEILINGS TO DROP TO MVFR AROUND 03Z...WITH OTHER STATIONS FOLLOWING SUIT BETWEEN 08-13Z. SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BETWEEN 14-16Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY AROUND THE REGION...WITH KBTV/KPBG/KRUT SEEING STRONGER WINDS GUSTING 10-20 KNOTS AFTER 13Z. OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 00Z TUESDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR RAIN SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY KRUT. 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE. PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KRUT/KSLK/KMPV. 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH SCT MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN RAIN SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE. 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN BR/FG, HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AT KMPV/KSLK. 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MVFR/SCATTERED IFR IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEAL NEAR TERM...NEILES/SISSON SHORT TERM...DEAL LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...MV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
755 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 .SYNOPSIS...STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A SURFACE COOL FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT... THEN DIP SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA EARLY WEDNESDAY... BEFORE GRADUALLY WASHING OUT LATER IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... AS OF 325 PM TUESDAY... LITTLE CHANGE WITH ANOTHER WARM FAIR NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE AREA...WITH THE MID/UPR RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STILL IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. NOT TOO FAR TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION AND THE OHIO VALLEY IS A COLD FRONT THATS GRADUALLY MOVING ESE. THE HRRR ONCE AGAIN IS TRYING TO DEVELOP PREFRONTAL SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VA AND BRING THEM SOUTHWARD SKIRTING OUR NORTHERN/NORTHEAST ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...THE HRRR SEEMS OVERDONE AND THE LATEST MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT ANY CELLS THAT DEVELOP TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE INTO RELATIVELY DRIER AIR OVER OUR AREA...SO FOR NOW... WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING LIMITED TO OUR FAR NE ZONES...WITH MOST OF CENTRAL NC REMAINING DRY. PERSISTENCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT...LOWER TO MID 70S...COOLEST NW. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 325 PM TUESDAY... THE WEAK BOUNDARY CURRENTLY TO OUR NORTH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTH...BUT A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE INTO THE PERSISTENT MID/UPR RIDGE. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST IT WILL MOVE INTO NE NC AS A BACKDOOR FRONT WHILE THE ECMWF IS ALSO MOVES IT ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING LATE ON WEDNESDAY. BOTH SUGGEST SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ABOUT 20M LOWER THAN TODAY...AND COOLEST READINGS ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST ZONES WHERE THE BEST CHANCE FOR POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS MODIFICATION WILL OCCUR. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 90 ACROSS OUR NE ZONES...TO MID-UPR 90S ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ZONES...WHERE LITTLE IF ANY AIRMASS MODIFICATION WILL OCCUR. HEAT INDICES ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES (WHERE THE HOTTEST TEMPS WILL BE) ARE EXPECTED TO FALL SHORT OF ADVISORY VALUES...SO FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY AND WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT RE-EVALUATE PENDING TONIGHTS GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE...THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE MID-MISS RIVER VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...EXITING THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LATEST ROUND OF CAMS SUGGEST SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOC WITH THIS WAVE WILL TRACK EAST ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC...WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY PERHAPS EXTENDING SOUTH INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL NC LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGHEST POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 400 PM TUESDAY... THU-SAT: THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...THEN RECEDE TO THE DEEP SOUTH/SOUTHEAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES (INCLUDING THE REMNANTS OF TC BILL) TRACKING EASTWARD (ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE) INTO THE MID- ATLANTIC. EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE...THOUGH HIGHS ARE UNLIKELY TO EXCEED THE MID/UPPER 90S GIVEN AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY ON FRI/SAT AS BILL`S REMNANTS TRACK EAST OF THE MS RIVER THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AND MID- ATLANTIC. SUN-TUE: THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF/GFS SUGGEST THAT A PERIOD OF NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ENSUE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS UPSTREAM OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...CENTRAL PLAINS...AND LOWER MIDWEST. THEREAFTER...BOTH MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE CAROLINAS/MID- ATLANTIC. AS A RESULT...EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST...WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE (AGAIN) BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL MON-TUE WHEN NW FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO BE IN PLACE. SEVERE WEATHER CAN RARELY BE RULED OUT WHEN NW FLOW ALOFT IS PRESENT THIS TIME OF YEAR...PARTICULARLY WITH A STRENGTHENING UPSTREAM RIDGE. SUCH A PATTERN CAN DELIVER THE ATYPICAL INGREDIENTS NECESSARY FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER... I.E. A PRONOUNCED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AND ENHANCED DEEP LAYER SHEAR. -VINCENT && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 755 PM TUESDAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CHANGES LITTLE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM THIS EVENING NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER COUNTIES...AND WEDNEDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING WHEN ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY OCCUR ABOUT ANYWHERE. DUE TO THE LIMITED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION...WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS PROBABLE EACH AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAY INCREASE A BIT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE..CAUSING SLIGHTLY BETTER CONDITIONS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. && .CLIMATE... REC HI DAY MAX YR MIN YR RDU RECORDS 06/16 98 1981 75 1998 06/17 99 1961 75 2004 06/18 98 1944 75 1935 GSO RECORDS 06/16 96 1914 73 2004 06/17 98 1944 76 2004 06/18 100 1944 73 1970 FAY RECORDS 06/16 100 1981 77 1998 06/17 101 1981 77 1945 06/18 102 1944 76 2004 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RAH NEAR TERM...RAH SHORT TERM...RAH LONG TERM...VINCENT AVIATION...WSS CLIMATE...MLM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
300 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 .SYNOPSIS...STRONG AND DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND CAROLINAS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY... CURRENT OBS SHOW THAT THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY IS ON TRACK AND SEVERAL HIGH TEMP RECORDS HAVE BEEN BROKEN (RDU AND FAY). WILL LET THE ADVISORY CONTINUE AS-IS THROUGH 7 PM WHEN IT`S SET TO END. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE IN PATTERN TONIGHT WITH THE 594 H5 RIDGE PARKED OVER THE SOUTHEAST. LATEST HRRR STILL SHOWS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED PASSING SHOWER WILL BE MOSTLY TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. WILL LEAN TOWARD PERSISTENCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT... AROUND 70 NW TO MID 70S SE/E. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY... PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SETUP OVER US DURING THE DAYTIME TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE AVG BL TEMP A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER...SO PERHAPS WE`LL SEE A FEW MORE 100+ DEGREE READINGS THAN WE`VE SEEN TODAY. AS SUCH...THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE HEAT WITH HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER A GOOD PORTION OF OUR CWA. WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR TUESDAY FOR THE SAME COUNTIES AS TODAY... BASICALLY OUR ENTIRE CWA EXCEPT FOR THE TRIAD. LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE H5 RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN AND SHIFT SOUTH AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. NEARLY ALL CAMS SHOW SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ASSOC WITH THE SHORT WAVE AND ITS BOUNDARY REMAINING TO OUR NORTH AND DISSIPATING BEFORE CROSSING THE VA BORDER. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO OUR NORTH...AS THEY MAY WARRANT A VERY LOW-END POP ACROSS OUR VA BORDER ZONES AS THEY PUSH SOUTH...OTHERWISE...THE CWA SHOULD STAY MOSTLY DRY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 245 PM MONDAY... LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WILL PERSIST MORE-OR- LESS AS-IS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH CENTRAL NC LOCATED ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...AT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WESTERLIES. DUE TO THIS PRECARIOUS POSITION (INTERFACE BETWEEN THE RIDGE/WESTERLIES)...FORECAST SPECIFICS WILL BE HIGHLY SENSITIVE TO SMALL CHANGES IN THE ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE AND/OR AMPLITUDE OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVES. AS A RESULT...CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST SPECIFICS IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE...PARTICULARLY WITH REGARD TO CONVECTIVE TIMING/COVERAGE. LATER IN THE EXTENDED...THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS BOTH INDICATE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS (AND POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE REMNANTS) WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE RIDGE SAT/SUN...WITH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT (AND SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT) EVOLVING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL INDICATE HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S WED-FRI...MID 90S SAT/SUN...AND LOW/MID 90S EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A 30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER ON FRI/SAT. -VINCENT && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY... WITH THE PERSISTENT RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHEAST...LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT W-NW SFC WINDS TO CONTINUE DURING THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL COME THURSDAY MORNING WITH POSSIBLE STRATUS...AND LATER IN THE WEEK DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ASSOC WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS. && .CLIMATE... REC HI DAY MAX YR MIN YR RDU RECORDS 06/15 97 1981 76 1899 06/16 98 1981 75 1998 06/17 99 1961 75 2004 06/18 98 1944 75 1935 GSO RECORDS 06/15 97 1926 73 1981 06/16 96 1914 73 2004 06/17 98 1944 76 2004 06/18 100 1944 73 1970 FAY RECORDS 06/15 98 1981 76 1926 06/16 100 1981 77 1998 06/17 101 1981 77 1945 06/18 102 1944 76 2004 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ007>011- 023>028-039>043-073>078-083>086-088-089. HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ007>011- 023>028-039>043-073>078-083>086-088-089. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RAH NEAR TERM...RAH SHORT TERM...RAH LONG TERM...VINCENT AVIATION...RAH CLIMATE...MLM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1226 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE WORST OF THE HEAT WAVE IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TUESDAY. SOMEWHAT LOWER TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO WEAKEN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS WEEK WILL BE ISOLATED. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1230 PM MONDAY...MID 90S ARE WIDESPREAD AT NOON ACROSS THE AREA WITH LUMBERTON ALREADY ALREADY REPORTING 97. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THE FIRST FEW CUMULUS BUILDING UP ALONG THE WEST BANK OF THE CAPE FEAR RIVER BETWEEN WILMINGTON AND SOUTHPORT...WITH A FEW MORE NORTH OF BURGAW AND ELIZABETHTOWN. OTHER THAN A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER FORECASTS...OUR FORECAST CONTINUES UNMODIFIED. DISCUSSION FROM 1000 AM FOLLOWS... THE HEAT IS ON! 10 AM TEMPERATURES ARE 90 OR HIGHER IN WILMINGTON...LUMBERTON AND FLORENCE...AND IT`S JUST GOING TO GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS. APPLYING OBSERVED 2-DAY BIAS CORRECTIONS TO GFS AND NAM MOS YIELDS ALMOST PRECISELY THE TEMPERATURES OUR LAST SHIFT HAD IN THE FORECAST. ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WILL BUILD TO 1000-2000 J/KG AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON THE ONLY TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION WILL BE THE SEABREEZE. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD MAKE BETTER INLAND PROGRESS THAN WE`VE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO WEAKER 100-850 MB WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS COUNTERING THE NATURAL MOVEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MARGINAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER NEAR THE LCL/LFC...AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE VERY ISOLATED IN COVERAGE. DISCUSSION FROM 600 AM FOLLOWS... TODAY WILL BE MORE OPPRESSIVE THAN THE WEEKEND AND TUE LOOKS TO BE THE PEAK OF THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVE. THE HEAT INDEX WILL COMMONLY REACH 105 TO 107 DEG AND A FEW SPOTS MAY TOP THAT FOR AN HOUR. TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL RISE TO ABOUT 21 DEG C TODAY. THIS IS A DEG HIGHER THAN ON SUN. ON SUN...INLAND THERMOMETERS REGISTERED UPPER 90S AND A FEW SPOTS...LIKE LBT...REACHED OR JUST EXCEEDED 100 DEG. LOCATIONS NEARER TO THE COAST WERE ALSO HOT...MAINLY UPPER 90S WITH LOWER TO MID 90S AT THE BEACHES. AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT LEAST AS HOT AS ON SUN IF NOT A DEG OR TWO HIGHER IN MOST LOCATIONS. WE ARE FORECASTING WIDESPREAD HIGHS AROUND 100 DEG INLAND. THE MORE COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S WITH LOWER TO MID 90S CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE BEACHES. THE SEABREEZE SHOULD MAKE SOME INLAND PROGRESS GIVEN THE LIGHT W TO SW FLOW IN THE LOWEST 3 K FT. HOWEVER...THIS WILL ONLY SERVE TO KEEP COASTAL DEWPOINTS ELEVATED OR INCREASE THEM SLIGHTLY WHICH WILL ONLY ADD TO THE DISCOMFORT LEVEL. RECORD HIGHS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO REACH OR EXCEED TODAY...BUT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY IN SOME LOCATIONS. THE RECORD HIGH AT FLO IS 104 SET IN 1981 AND THE FORECAST HIGH FOR TODAY IS 102. THE RECORD HIGH AT ILM IS 100 SET IN 1880 AND THE FORECAST HIGH FOR TODAY IS 99. THE RECORD HIGH AT CRE IS 98 SET IN 2010 AND THE FORECAST HIGH FOR TODAY IS 96. TEMPS AFTER SUNSET WILL BE VERY WARM WITH MANY PLACES STILL IN THE LOWER 80S AROUND MIDNIGHT. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S AND THE BEACHES MAY NOT DROP BELOW 80 DEG. AS THE HEAT HAS BUILT...THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR LESS IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH EACH PASSING DAY. THE SUBSIDENCE WILL BE EVEN GREATER TODAY THAN ON SUN AND TEMPS IN THE MID LEVELS WILL REMAIN SIMILAR. HOWEVER...VERY STRONG HEATING WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. THUS WILL SHOW AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FOR ONLY A SMALL PART OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE...PRIMARILY IN ASSOCIATION WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEABREEZE WITH PERHAPS A SPOTTY POP-UP THUNDERSTORM INLAND IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PIEDMONT TROUGH. THE HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL IS ALSO SHOWING VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...STRONG MID TO UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AT THE LOW LEVELS THOUGH TO COMBINE WITH STRONG HEATING OF THE DAY TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED CONVECTION ALONG SEA BREEZE...PIEDMONT TROUGH AND OTHER CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES. WINDS UP THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK WITH A LIGHT STEERING FLOW OUT OF THE W-NW AND SFC WINDS GENERALLY DOMINATED BY SEA/LAND BREEZE. IT WILL BE THE SUBTLE CHANGES IN WINDS AND MOISTURE THAT WILL DICTATE THE CHANGE IN CONVECTION EACH DAY. A FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE SOUTH WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO THE AREA BUT SOME ADDED MOISTURE WILL ADVECT SOUTHWARD MAY ADD TO CONVECTION ON WED WITH PCP WATER VALUES REACHING UP CLOSER TO 2 INCHES POOLING ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE STRONG RIDGE OVERHEAD AND H5 HEIGHTS UP NEAR 594 DM AS WELL AS A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND. LOOKS LIKE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND 850 TEMPS WILL PEAK ON TUES AND THEREFORE EXPECT WARMEST TEMPS THIS DAY WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING TEMPS CLOSER TO THE COAST NEAR 100 AND TEMPS INLAND A FEW DEGREES HIGHER. THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WILL KEEP DEWPOINT TEMPS UP IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WHICH IN TURN WILL PRODUCE VERY HIGH HEAT INDICES AND MAINTAIN VERY WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPS. HEAT INDICES ON TUE WILL REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ONCE AGAIN BUT WED MY FALL JUST SHY. POTENTIAL FOR AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WILL EXIST ON TUES WITH HEAT INDICES UP TO 110F IN SPOTS. LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL UP IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...RIDGE HOLDS TOUGH FOR THE MOST PART BUT DOES GET SUPPRESSED SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND EAST ALLOWING FOR SOME H5 HEIGHT FALLS AND POSSIBLY SOME PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW ALOFT TO RIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. OVERALL EXPECT VERY WARM WEATHER TO CONTINUE WITH LOCALIZED CONVECTION MOST DAYS FOCUSED ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND PIEDMONT TROUGH. GFS DOES INDICATE A SHORTWAVE PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE CAROLINAS ON SAT INTO SUN WITH A STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT AND BETTER CHC FOR CONVECTION SAT AFTN INTO THE EVE. TEMPS WILL RUN SLIGHTLY LOWER TOWARDS THE WEEKEND WITH MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S AS COMPARED TO MID 90S TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS HOLDING CLOSER TO 70 OR SO...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO REMAIN IN THE MID 70S MOST PLACES. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 18Z...A VERY WARM AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE AIRMASS CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WITH A SEA BREEZE IMPACTING THE COASTAL TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 01 TO 02 UTC. THE LOCAL AND MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 6000 FEET. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1230 PM MONDAY...NO HINT OF THE SEABREEZE YET AT WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH OR MYRTLE BEACH BUT IT`S SETTING UP NICELY IN WIND OBSERVATIONS AND ON RADAR IMAGERY ALONG THE BRUNSWICK COUNTY COAST. NO CHANGE ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST. DISCUSSION FROM 1000 AM FOLLOWS... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED WITH THIS MORNING UPDATE. WEST WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BACK AROUND SOUTHERLY MUCH EARLIER THAN THEY DID YESTERDAY SINCE THE WESTERLY WIND IN THE LOWEST 5000 FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY. SEAS REMAIN ONLY 1-2 FEET ACCORDING TO LATEST BUOY REPORTS...AND LATEST WEBCAM IMAGES SHOW THE OCEAN IS FAIRLY GLASSY. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT PREVAILING WINDS WILL ALLOW SEA/LAND BREEZE TO DOMINATE THE FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH MID WEEK. A WEAKENED BOUNDARY MAY GET A PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO PRODUCE A SHIFT IN WINDS TO THE N-NE AND EAST THROUGH WED. WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 KT FOR THE MOST PART...BUT MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON WED. SEAS BASICALLY 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A LONGER PERIOD UP TO 11 SEC SOUTHEAST SWELL MIXING IN WITH THE SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVE. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN WITH LAND/SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH DRIVING THE WINDS EACH AFTN/EVE. WINDS MAY REACH UP TO 15 KT ON FRI PRODUCING A SLIGHT RISE IN SEAS UP TO 3 TO 4 FT. GRADIENT TIGHTENS FURTHER HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND SHOULD SEE SW WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KT BY SATURDAY WHICH IN TURN SHOULD PUSH THE SEAS UP TO 3 TO 5 FT. && .CLIMATE... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY... ALTHOUGH THIS MAY NOT BE RECORD-BREAKING HEAT IT`S STILL THE FIRST TIME IN ALMOST 3 YEARS WE`VE HAD THESE KIND OF TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST. 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 WILMINGTON 6/14/15 7/27/12 7/27/12 7/27/12 7/27/12 6/30/12 6/30/12 MYRTLE BEACH 6/14/15 7/24/12 7/28/05 7/27/05 7/27/05 8/17/54 8/17/54 FLORENCE 6/14/15 6/14/15 6/14/15 7/09/14 7/26/12 7/09/12 7/01/12 THIS IS ALSO AVAILABLE GRAPHICALLY ON OUR FACEBOOK & TWITTER PAGES && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ017-023-024- 032-033-039-053>056. NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-099- 105>110. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RGZ NEAR TERM...RJD/TRA SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...DRH CLIMATE...TRA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1007 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY INTO MID WEEK. THE WORST OF THE HEAT WAVE IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TUESDAY. SOMEWHAT LOWER TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO WEAKEN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS WEEK WILL BE ISOLATED. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1000 AM MONDAY...THE HEAT IS ON! 10 AM TEMPERATURES ARE 90 OR HIGHER IN WILMINGTON...LUMBERTON AND FLORENCE...AND IT`S JUST GOING TO GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS. APPLYING OBSERVED 2-DAY BIAS CORRECTIONS TO GFS AND NAM MOS YIELDS ALMOST PRECISELY THE TEMPERATURES OUR LAST SHIFT HAD IN THE FORECAST. ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WILL BUILD TO 1000-2000 J/KG AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON THE ONLY TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION WILL BE THE SEABREEZE. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD MAKE BETTER INLAND PROGRESS THAN WE`VE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO WEAKER 100-850 MB WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS COUNTERING THE NATURAL MOVEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MARGINAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER NEAR THE LCL/LFC...AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE VERY ISOLATED IN COVERAGE. DISCUSSION FROM 600 AM FOLLOWS... TODAY WILL BE MORE OPPRESSIVE THAN THE WEEKEND AND TUE LOOKS TO BE THE PEAK OF THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVE. THE HEAT INDEX WILL COMMONLY REACH 105 TO 107 DEG AND A FEW SPOTS MAY TOP THAT FOR AN HOUR. TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL RISE TO ABOUT 21 DEG C TODAY. THIS IS A DEG HIGHER THAN ON SUN. ON SUN...INLAND THERMOMETERS REGISTERED UPPER 90S AND A FEW SPOTS...LIKE LBT...REACHED OR JUST EXCEEDED 100 DEG. LOCATIONS NEARER TO THE COAST WERE ALSO HOT...MAINLY UPPER 90S WITH LOWER TO MID 90S AT THE BEACHES. AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT LEAST AS HOT AS ON SUN IF NOT A DEG OR TWO HIGHER IN MOST LOCATIONS. WE ARE FORECASTING WIDESPREAD HIGHS AROUND 100 DEG INLAND. THE MORE COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S WITH LOWER TO MID 90S CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE BEACHES. THE SEABREEZE SHOULD MAKE SOME INLAND PROGRESS GIVEN THE LIGHT W TO SW FLOW IN THE LOWEST 3 K FT. HOWEVER...THIS WILL ONLY SERVE TO KEEP COASTAL DEWPOINTS ELEVATED OR INCREASE THEM SLIGHTLY WHICH WILL ONLY ADD TO THE DISCOMFORT LEVEL. RECORD HIGHS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO REACH OR EXCEED TODAY...BUT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY IN SOME LOCATIONS. THE RECORD HIGH AT FLO IS 104 SET IN 1981 AND THE FORECAST HIGH FOR TODAY IS 102. THE RECORD HIGH AT ILM IS 100 SET IN 1880 AND THE FORECAST HIGH FOR TODAY IS 99. THE RECORD HIGH AT CRE IS 98 SET IN 2010 AND THE FORECAST HIGH FOR TODAY IS 96. TEMPS AFTER SUNSET WILL BE VERY WARM WITH MANY PLACES STILL IN THE LOWER 80S AROUND MIDNIGHT. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S AND THE BEACHES MAY NOT DROP BELOW 80 DEG. AS THE HEAT HAS BUILT...THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR LESS IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH EACH PASSING DAY. THE SUBSIDENCE WILL BE EVEN GREATER TODAY THAN ON SUN AND TEMPS IN THE MID LEVELS WILL REMAIN SIMILAR. HOWEVER...VERY STRONG HEATING WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. THUS WILL SHOW AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FOR ONLY A SMALL PART OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE...PRIMARILY IN ASSOCIATION WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEABREEZE WITH PERHAPS A SPOTTY POP-UP THUNDERSTORM INLAND IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PIEDMONT TROUGH. THE HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL IS ALSO SHOWING VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...STRONG MID TO UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AT THE LOW LEVELS THOUGH TO COMBINE WITH STRONG HEATING OF THE DAY TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED CONVECTION ALONG SEA BREEZE...PIEDMONT TROUGH AND OTHER CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES. WINDS UP THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK WITH A LIGHT STEERING FLOW OUT OF THE W-NW AND SFC WINDS GENERALLY DOMINATED BY SEA/LAND BREEZE. IT WILL BE THE SUBTLE CHANGES IN WINDS AND MOISTURE THAT WILL DICTATE THE CHANGE IN CONVECTION EACH DAY. A FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE SOUTH WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO THE AREA BUT SOME ADDED MOISTURE WILL ADVECT SOUTHWARD MAY ADD TO CONVECTION ON WED WITH PCP WATER VALUES REACHING UP CLOSER TO 2 INCHES POOLING ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE STRONG RIDGE OVERHEAD AND H5 HEIGHTS UP NEAR 594 DM AS WELL AS A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND. LOOKS LIKE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND 850 TEMPS WILL PEAK ON TUES AND THEREFORE EXPECT WARMEST TEMPS THIS DAY WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING TEMPS CLOSER TO THE COAST NEAR 100 AND TEMPS INLAND A FEW DEGREES HIGHER. THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WILL KEEP DEWPOINT TEMPS UP IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WHICH IN TURN WILL PRODUCE VERY HIGH HEAT INDICES AND MAINTAIN VERY WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPS. HEAT INDICES ON TUE WILL REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ONCE AGAIN BUT WED MY FALL JUST SHY. POTENTIAL FOR AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WILL EXIST ON TUES WITH HEAT INDICES UP TO 110F IN SPOTS. LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL UP IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...RIDGE HOLDS TOUGH FOR THE MOST PART BUT DOES GET SUPPRESSED SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND EAST ALLOWING FOR SOME H5 HEIGHT FALLS AND POSSIBLY SOME PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW ALOFT TO RIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. OVERALL EXPECT VERY WARM WEATHER TO CONTINUE WITH LOCALIZED CONVECTION MOST DAYS FOCUSED ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND PIEDMONT TROUGH. GFS DOES INDICATE A SHORTWAVE PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE CAROLINAS ON SAT INTO SUN WITH A STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT AND BETTER CHC FOR CONVECTION SAT AFTN INTO THE EVE. TEMPS WILL RUN SLIGHTLY LOWER TOWARDS THE WEEKEND WITH MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S AS COMPARED TO MID 90S TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS HOLDING CLOSER TO 70 OR SO...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO REMAIN IN THE MID 70S MOST PLACES. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 12Z...CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WITH VERY WARM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH FEW TO SCT CUMULUS EXPECTED AROUND 6000 FEET BY THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH A NORTHWEST WIND THIS MORNING VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AT THE INLAND TAF SITES. A SEA BREEZE WILL BE REALIZED AT THE COASTAL TAF SITES GENERALLY AFTER 18 UTC AND THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST AFTER THE SEABREEZE BREAKS DOWN AFTER SUNSET. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1000 AM MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED WITH THIS MORNING UPDATE. WEST WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BACK AROUND SOUTHERLY MUCH EARLIER THAN THEY DID YESTERDAY SINCE THE WESTERLY WIND IN THE LOWEST 5000 FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY. SEAS REMAIN ONLY 1-2 FEET ACCORDING TO LATEST BUOY REPORTS...AND LATEST WEBCAM IMAGES SHOW THE OCEAN IS FAIRLY GLASSY. DISCUSSION FROM 600 AM FOLLOWS... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONCERT WITH A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WILL INCLUDE THE MORNING LAND BREEZE AND THE NEARLY PINNED AFTERNOON AND EVE SEABREEZE. THE WIND DIRECTION TO START THE PERIOD WILL BE FROM THE W AT LESS THAN 10 KT. SW WINDS WILL RETURN BY LATE MORNING AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...BUT BECOMING S ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS FOR A TIME LATER THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO SEABREEZE INFLUENCES. WIND SPEEDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE 10 TO 15 KT...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVE DUE TO SEABREEZE INFLUENCES AND TONIGHT THROUGHOUT AS SOME NOCTURNAL JETTING RETURNS. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT TODAY WITH SOME 3 FT SEAS DEVELOPING LATER IN THE DAY AND BECOMING MORE PREVALENT TONIGHT. A WEAK 9 TO 11 SECOND SE SWELL WILL BE PRESENT. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT PREVAILING WINDS WILL ALLOW SEA/LAND BREEZE TO DOMINATE THE FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH MID WEEK. A WEAKENED BOUNDARY MAY GET A PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO PRODUCE A SHIFT IN WINDS TO THE N-NE AND EAST THROUGH WED. WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 KT FOR THE MOST PART...BUT MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON WED. SEAS BASICALLY 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A LONGER PERIOD UP TO 11 SEC SOUTHEAST SWELL MIXING IN WITH THE SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVE. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN WITH LAND/SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH DRIVING THE WINDS EACH AFTN/EVE. WINDS MAY REACH UP TO 15 KT ON FRI PRODUCING A SLIGHT RISE IN SEAS UP TO 3 TO 4 FT. GRADIENT TIGHTENS FURTHER HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND SHOULD SEE SW WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KT BY SATURDAY WHICH IN TURN SHOULD PUSH THE SEAS UP TO 3 TO 5 FT. && .CLIMATE... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY... ALTHOUGH THIS MAY NOT BE RECORD-BREAKING HEAT IT`S STILL THE FIRST TIME IN ALMOST 3 YEARS WE`VE HAD THESE KIND OF TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST. 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 WILMINGTON 6/14/15 7/27/12 7/27/12 7/27/12 7/27/12 6/30/12 6/30/12 MYRTLE BEACH 6/14/15 7/24/12 7/28/05 7/27/05 7/27/05 8/17/54 8/17/54 FLORENCE 6/14/15 6/14/15 6/14/15 7/09/14 7/26/12 7/09/12 7/01/12 THIS IS ALSO AVAILABLE GRAPHICALLY ON OUR FACEBOOK & TWITTER PAGES && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ017-023-024- 032-033-039-053>056. NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-099- 105>110. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RGZ NEAR TERM...RJD/TRA SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...DRH CLIMATE...TRA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
723 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY INTO MID WEEK. THE WORST OF THE HEAT WAVE IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TUESDAY. SOMEWHAT LOWER TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO WEAKEN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS WEEK WILL BE ISOLATED. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 600 AM MONDAY...TODAY WILL BE MORE OPPRESSIVE THAN THE WEEKEND AND TUE LOOKS TO BE THE PEAK OF THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVE. THE HEAT INDEX WILL COMMONLY REACH 105 TO 107 DEG AND A FEW SPOTS MAY TOP THAT FOR AN HOUR. TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL RISE TO ABOUT 21 DEG C TODAY. THIS IS A DEG HIGHER THAN ON SUN. ON SUN...INLAND THERMOMETERS REGISTERED UPPER 90S AND A FEW SPOTS...LIKE LBT...REACHED OR JUST EXCEEDED 100 DEG. LOCATIONS NEARER TO THE COAST WERE ALSO HOT...MAINLY UPPER 90S WITH LOWER TO MID 90S AT THE BEACHES. AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT LEAST AS HOT AS ON SUN IF NOT A DEG OR TWO HIGHER IN MOST LOCATIONS. WE ARE FORECASTING WIDESPREAD HIGHS AROUND 100 DEG INLAND. THE MORE COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S WITH LOWER TO MID 90S CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE BEACHES. THE SEABREEZE SHOULD MAKE SOME INLAND PROGRESS GIVEN THE LIGHT W TO SW FLOW IN THE LOWEST 3 K FT. HOWEVER...THIS WILL ONLY SERVE TO KEEP COASTAL DEWPOINTS ELEVATED OR INCREASE THEM SLIGHTLY WHICH WILL ONLY ADD TO THE DISCOMFORT LEVEL. RECORD HIGHS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO REACH OR EXCEED TODAY...BUT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY IN SOME LOCATIONS. THE RECORD HIGH AT FLO IS 104 SET IN 1981 AND THE FORECAST HIGH FOR TODAY IS 102. THE RECORD HIGH AT ILM IS 100 SET IN 1880 AND THE FORECAST HIGH FOR TODAY IS 99. THE RECORD HIGH AT CRE IS 98 SET IN 2010 AND THE FORECAST HIGH FOR TODAY IS 96. TEMPS AFTER SUNSET WILL BE VERY WARM WITH MANY PLACES STILL IN THE LOWER 80S AROUND MIDNIGHT. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S AND THE BEACHES MAY NOT DROP BELOW 80 DEG. AS THE HEAT HAS BUILT...THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR LESS IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH EACH PASSING DAY. THE SUBSIDENCE WILL BE EVEN GREATER TODAY THAN ON SUN AND TEMPS IN THE MID LEVELS WILL REMAIN SIMILAR. HOWEVER...VERY STRONG HEATING WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. THUS WILL SHOW AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FOR ONLY A SMALL PART OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE...PRIMARILY IN ASSOCIATION WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEABREEZE WITH PERHAPS A SPOTTY POP-UP THUNDERSTORM INLAND IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PIEDMONT TROUGH. THE HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL IS ALSO SHOWING VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...STRONG MID TO UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AT THE LOW LEVELS THOUGH TO COMBINE WITH STRONG HEATING OF THE DAY TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED CONVECTION ALONG SEA BREEZE...PIEDMONT TROUGH AND OTHER CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES. WINDS UP THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK WITH A LIGHT STEERING FLOW OUT OF THE W-NW AND SFC WINDS GENERALLY DOMINATED BY SEA/LAND BREEZE. IT WILL BE THE SUBTLE CHANGES IN WINDS AND MOISTURE THAT WILL DICTATE THE CHANGE IN CONVECTION EACH DAY. A FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE SOUTH WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO THE AREA BUT SOME ADDED MOISTURE WILL ADVECT SOUTHWARD MAY ADD TO CONVECTION ON WED WITH PCP WATER VALUES REACHING UP CLOSER TO 2 INCHES POOLING ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE STRONG RIDGE OVERHEAD AND H5 HEIGHTS UP NEAR 594 DM AS WELL AS A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND. LOOKS LIKE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND 850 TEMPS WILL PEAK ON TUES AND THEREFORE EXPECT WARMEST TEMPS THIS DAY WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING TEMPS CLOSER TO THE COAST NEAR 100 AND TEMPS INLAND A FEW DEGREES HIGHER. THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WILL KEEP DEWPOINT TEMPS UP IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WHICH IN TURN WILL PRODUCE VERY HIGH HEAT INDICES AND MAINTAIN VERY WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPS. HEAT INDICES ON TUE WILL REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ONCE AGAIN BUT WED MY FALL JUST SHY. POTENTIAL FOR AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WILL EXIST ON TUES WITH HEAT INDICES UP TO 110F IN SPOTS. LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL UP IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...RIDGE HOLDS TOUGH FOR THE MOST PART BUT DOES GET SUPPRESSED SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND EAST ALLOWING FOR SOME H5 HEIGHT FALLS AND POSSIBLY SOME PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW ALOFT TO RIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. OVERALL EXPECT VERY WARM WEATHER TO CONTINUE WITH LOCALIZED CONVECTION MOST DAYS FOCUSED ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND PIEDMONT TROUGH. GFS DOES INDICATE A SHORTWAVE PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE CAROLINAS ON SAT INTO SUN WITH A STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT AND BETTER CHC FOR CONVECTION SAT AFTN INTO THE EVE. TEMPS WILL RUN SLIGHTLY LOWER TOWARDS THE WEEKEND WITH MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S AS COMPARED TO MID 90S TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS HOLDING CLOSER TO 70 OR SO...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO REMAIN IN THE MID 70S MOST PLACES. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 12Z...CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WITH VERY WARM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH FEW TO SCT CUMULUS EXPECTED AROUND 6000 FEET BY THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH A NORTHWEST WIND THIS MORNING VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AT THE INLAND TAF SITES. A SEA BREEZE WILL BE REALIZED AT THE COASTAL TAF SITES GENERALLY AFTER 18 UTC AND THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST AFTER THE SEABREEZE BREAKS DOWN AFTER SUNSET. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 600 AM MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONCERT WITH A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WILL INCLUDE THE MORNING LAND BREEZE AND THE NEARLY PINNED AFTERNOON AND EVE SEABREEZE. THE WIND DIRECTION TO START THE PERIOD WILL BE FROM THE W AT LESS THAN 10 KT. SW WINDS WILL RETURN BY LATE MORNING AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...BUT BECOMING S ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS FOR A TIME LATER THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO SEABREEZE INFLUENCES. WIND SPEEDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE 10 TO 15 KT...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVE DUE TO SEABREEZE INFLUENCES AND TONIGHT THROUGHOUT AS SOME NOCTURNAL JETTING RETURNS. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT TODAY WITH SOME 3 FT SEAS DEVELOPING LATER IN THE DAY AND BECOMING MORE PREVALENT TONIGHT. A WEAK 9 TO 11 SECOND SE SWELL WILL BE PRESENT. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT PREVAILING WINDS WILL ALLOW SEA/LAND BREEZE TO DOMINATE THE FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH MID WEEK. A WEAKENED BOUNDARY MAY GET A PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO PRODUCE A SHIFT IN WINDS TO THE N-NE AND EAST THROUGH WED. WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 KT FOR THE MOST PART...BUT MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON WED. SEAS BASICALLY 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A LONGER PERIOD UP TO 11 SEC SOUTHEAST SWELL MIXING IN WITH THE SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVE. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN WITH LAND/SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH DRIVING THE WINDS EACH AFTN/EVE. WINDS MAY REACH UP TO 15 KT ON FRI PRODUCING A SLIGHT RISE IN SEAS UP TO 3 TO 4 FT. GRADIENT TIGHTENS FURTHER HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND SHOULD SEE SW WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KT BY SATURDAY WHICH IN TURN SHOULD PUSH THE SEAS UP TO 3 TO 5 FT. && .CLIMATE... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY... ALTHOUGH THIS MAY NOT BE RECORD-BREAKING HEAT IT`S STILL THE FIRST TIME IN ALMOST 3 YEARS WE`VE HAD THESE KIND OF TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST. 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 WILMINGTON 6/14/15 7/27/12 7/27/12 7/27/12 7/27/12 6/30/12 6/30/12 MYRTLE BEACH 6/14/15 7/24/12 7/28/05 7/27/05 7/27/05 8/17/54 8/17/54 FLORENCE 6/14/15 6/14/15 6/14/15 7/09/14 7/26/12 7/09/12 7/01/12 THIS IS ALSO AVAILABLE GRAPHICALLY ON OUR FACEBOOK & TWITTER PAGES && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053>056. NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-099-105>110. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...DRH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED CLIMATE SECTION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
652 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY INTO MID WEEK. THE WORST OF THE HEAT WAVE IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TUESDAY. SOMEWHAT LOWER TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO WEAKEN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS WEEK WILL BE ISOLATED. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 600 AM MONDAY...TODAY WILL BE MORE OPPRESSIVE THAN THE WEEKEND AND TUE LOOKS TO BE THE PEAK OF THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVE. THE HEAT INDEX WILL COMMONLY REACH 105 TO 107 DEG AND A FEW SPOTS MAY TOP THAT FOR AN HOUR. TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL RISE TO ABOUT 21 DEG C TODAY. THIS IS A DEG HIGHER THAN ON SUN. ON SUN...INLAND THERMOMETERS REGISTERED UPPER 90S AND A FEW SPOTS...LIKE LBT...REACHED OR JUST EXCEEDED 100 DEG. LOCATIONS NEARER TO THE COAST WERE ALSO HOT...MAINLY UPPER 90S WITH LOWER TO MID 90S AT THE BEACHES. AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT LEAST AS HOT AS ON SUN IF NOT A DEG OR TWO HIGHER IN MOST LOCATIONS. WE ARE FORECASTING WIDESPREAD HIGHS AROUND 100 DEG INLAND. THE MORE COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S WITH LOWER TO MID 90S CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE BEACHES. THE SEABREEZE SHOULD MAKE SOME INLAND PROGRESS GIVEN THE LIGHT W TO SW FLOW IN THE LOWEST 3 K FT. HOWEVER...THIS WILL ONLY SERVE TO KEEP COASTAL DEWPOINTS ELEVATED OR INCREASE THEM SLIGHTLY WHICH WILL ONLY ADD TO THE DISCOMFORT LEVEL. RECORD HIGHS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO REACH OR EXCEED TODAY...BUT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY IN SOME LOCATIONS. THE RECORD HIGH AT FLO IS 104 SET IN 1981 AND THE FORECAST HIGH FOR TODAY IS 102. THE RECORD HIGH AT ILM IS 100 SET IN 1880 AND THE FORECAST HIGH FOR TODAY IS 99. THE RECORD HIGH AT CRE IS 98 SET IN 2010 AND THE FORECAST HIGH FOR TODAY IS 96. TEMPS AFTER SUNSET WILL BE VERY WARM WITH MANY PLACES STILL IN THE LOWER 80S AROUND MIDNIGHT. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S AND THE BEACHES MAY NOT DROP BELOW 80 DEG. AS THE HEAT HAS BUILT...THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR LESS IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH EACH PASSING DAY. THE SUBSIDENCE WILL BE EVEN GREATER TODAY THAN ON SUN AND TEMPS IN THE MID LEVELS WILL REMAIN SIMILAR. HOWEVER...VERY STRONG HEATING WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. THUS WILL SHOW AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FOR ONLY A SMALL PART OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE...PRIMARILY IN ASSOCIATION WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEABREEZE WITH PERHAPS A SPOTTY POP-UP THUNDERSTORM INLAND IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PIEDMONT TROUGH. THE HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL IS ALSO SHOWING VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...STRONG MID TO UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AT THE LOW LEVELS THOUGH TO COMBINE WITH STRONG HEATING OF THE DAY TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED CONVECTION ALONG SEA BREEZE...PIEDMONT TROUGH AND OTHER CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES. WINDS UP THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK WITH A LIGHT STEERING FLOW OUT OF THE W-NW AND SFC WINDS GENERALLY DOMINATED BY SEA/LAND BREEZE. IT WILL BE THE SUBTLE CHANGES IN WINDS AND MOISTURE THAT WILL DICTATE THE CHANGE IN CONVECTION EACH DAY. A FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE SOUTH WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO THE AREA BUT SOME ADDED MOISTURE WILL ADVECT SOUTHWARD MAY ADD TO CONVECTION ON WED WITH PCP WATER VALUES REACHING UP CLOSER TO 2 INCHES POOLING ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE STRONG RIDGE OVERHEAD AND H5 HEIGHTS UP NEAR 594 DEM AS WELL AS A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND. LOOKS LIKE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND 850 TEMPS WILL PEAK ON TUES AND THEREFORE EXPECT WARMEST TEMPS THIS DAY WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING TEMPS CLOSER TO THE COAST NEAR 100 AND TEMPS INLAND A FEW DEGREES HIGHER. THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WILL KEEP DEWPOINT TEMPS UP IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WHICH IN TURN WILL PRODUCE VERY HIGH HEAT INDICES AND MAINTAIN VERY WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPS. HEAT INDICES ON TUE WILL REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ONCE AGAIN BUT WED MY FALL JUST SHY. POTENTIAL FOR AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WILL EXIST ON TUES WITH HEAT INDICES UP TO 110F IN SPOTS. LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL UP IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...RIDGE HOLDS TOUGH FOR THE MOST PART BUT DOES GET SUPPRESSED SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND EAST ALLOWING FOR SOME H5 HEIGHT FALLS AND POSSIBLY SOME PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW ALOFT TO RIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. OVERALL EXPECT VERY WARM WEATHER TO CONTINUE WITH LOCALIZED CONVECTION MOST DAYS FOCUSED ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND PIEDMONT TROUGH. GFS DOES INDICATE A SHORTWAVE PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE CAROLINAS ON SAT INTO SUN WITH A STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT AND BETTER CHC FOR CONVECTION SAT AFTN INTO THE EVE. TEMPS WILL RUN SLIGHTLY LOWER TOWARDS THE WEEKEND WITH MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S AS COMPARED TO MID 90S TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS HOLDING CLOSER TO 70 OR SO...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO REMAIN IN THE MID 70S MOST PLACES. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 06Z...NEARLY CLEAR SKIES/VFR EXPECTED THROUGH SUNRISE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SW OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING LIGHT W-WNW TOWARDS SUNRISE. FEW- SCT CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE S WITH THE SEA BREEZE LATE MORNING AT KCRE AND IN THE AFTERNOON AT KMYR AND KILM. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ATTM ALONG THE SEA BREEZE PINNED NEAR THE COAST AND ALONG THE WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH LOCATED NEAR THE INLAND TERMINALS. WILL ONLY INDICATE VCSH ATTM. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND 00Z. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 600 AM MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONCERT WITH A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WILL INCLUDE THE MORNING LAND BREEZE AND THE NEARLY PINNED AFTERNOON AND EVE SEABREEZE. THE WIND DIRECTION TO START THE PERIOD WILL BE FROM THE W AT LESS THAN 10 KT. SW WINDS WILL RETURN BY LATE MORNING AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...BUT BECOMING S ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS FOR A TIME LATER THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO SEABREEZE INFLUENCES. WIND SPEEDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE 10 TO 15 KT...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVE DUE TO SEABREEZE INFLUENCES AND TONIGHT THROUGHOUT AS SOME NOCTURNAL JETTING RETURNS. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT TODAY WITH SOME 3 FT SEAS DEVELOPING LATER IN THE DAY AND BECOMING MORE PREVALENT TONIGHT. A WEAK 9 TO 11 SECOND SE SWELL WILL BE PRESENT. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT PREVAILING WINDS WILL ALLOW SEA/LAND BREEZE TO DOMINATE THE FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH MID WEEK. A WEAKENED BOUNDARY MAY GET A PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO PRODUCE A SHIFT IN WINDS TO THE N-NE AND EAST THROUGH WED. WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 KT FOR THE MOST PART...BUT MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON WED. SEAS BASICALLY 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A LONGER PERIOD UP TO 11 SEC SOUTHEAST SWELL MIXING IN WITH THE SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVE. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN WITH LAND/SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH DRIVING THE WINDS EACH AFTN/EVE. WINDS MAY REACH UP TO 15 KT ON FRI PRODUCING A SLIGHT RISE IN SEAS UP TO 3 TO 4 FT. GRADIENT TIGHTENS FURTHER HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND SHOULD SEE SW WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KT BY SATURDAY WHICH IN TURN SHOULD PUSH THE SEAS UP TO 3 TO 5 FT. && .CLIMATE... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY... ALTHOUGH THIS MAY NOT BE RECORD-BREAKING HEAT IT`S STILL THE FIRST TIME IN ALMOST 3 YEARS WE`VE HAD THESE KIND OF TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST. 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 WILMINGTON 6/14/15 7/27/12 7/27/12 7/27/12 7/27/12 6/30/12 6/30/12 MYRTLE BEACH 6/14/15 7/24/12 7/28/05 7/27/05 7/27/05 8/17/54 8/17/54 FLORENCE 6/14/15 6/14/15 6/14/15 7/09/14 7/26/12 7/09/12 7/01/12 THIS IS ALSO AVAILABLE GRAPHICALLY ON OUR FACEBOOK & TWITTER PAGES && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053>056. NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-099-105>110. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...RJD/MRR CLIMATE...TRA/RJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
424 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH MID WEEK. THE WORST OF THE HEAT WAVE IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOMEWHAT LOWER TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO WEAKEN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS WEEK WILL BE ISOLATED. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...TODAY WILL BE MORE OPPRESSIVE THAN THE WEEKEND AND TUE LOOKS TO BE THE PEAK OF THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVE. THE HEAT INDEX WILL COMMONLY REACH 105 TO 107 DEG AND A FEW SPOTS MAY TOP THAT FOR AN HOUR. TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL RISE TO ABOUT 21 DEG C TODAY. THIS IS A DEG HIGHER THAN ON SUN. ON SUN...INLAND THERMOMETERS REGISTERED UPPER 90S AND A FEW SPOTS...LIKE LBT...REACHED OR JUST EXCEEDED 100 DEG. LOCATIONS NEARER TO THE COAST WERE ALSO HOT...MAINLY UPPER 90S WITH LOWER TO MID 90S AT THE BEACHES. AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT LEAST AS HOT AS ON SUN IF NOT A DEG OR TWO HIGHER IN MOST LOCATIONS. WE ARE FORECASTING WIDESPREAD HIGHS AROUND 100 DEG INLAND. THE MORE COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S WITH LOWER TO MID 90S CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE BEACHES. THE SEABREEZE SHOULD MAKE SOME INLAND PROGRESS GIVEN THE LIGHT W TO SW FLOW IN THE LOWEST 3 K FT. HOWEVER...THIS WILL ONLY SERVE TO KEEP COASTAL DEWPOINTS ELEVATED OR INCREASE THEM SLIGHTLY WHICH WILL ONLY ADD TO THE DISCOMFORT LEVEL. RECORD HIGHS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO REACH OR EXCEED TODAY...BUT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY IN SOME LOCATIONS. THE RECORD HIGH AT FLO IS 104 SET IN 1981 AND THE FORECAST HIGH FOR TODAY IS 102. THE RECORD HIGH AT ILM IS 100 SET IN 1880 AND THE FORECAST HIGH FOR TODAY IS 99. THE RECORD HIGH AT CRE IS 98 SET IN 2010 AND THE FORECAST HIGH FOR TODAY IS 96. TEMPS AFTER SUNSET WILL BE VERY WARM WITH MANY PLACES STILL IN THE LOWER 80S AROUND MIDNIGHT. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S AND THE BEACHES MAY NOT DROP BELOW 80 DEG. AS THE HEAT HAS BUILT...THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR LESS IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH EACH PASSING DAY. THE SUBSIDENCE WILL BE EVEN GREATER TODAY THAN ON SUN AND TEMPS IN THE MID LEVELS WILL REMAIN SIMILAR. HOWEVER...VERY STRONG HEATING WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. THUS WILL SHOW AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FOR ONLY A SMALL PART OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE...PRIMARILY IN ASSOCIATION WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEABREEZE WITH PERHAPS A SPOTTY POP-UP THUNDERSTORM INLAND IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PIEDMONT TROUGH. THE HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL IS ALSO SHOWING VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...STRONG MID TO UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AT THE LOW LEVELS THOUGH TO COMBINE WITH STRONG HEATING OF THE DAY TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED CONVECTION ALONG SEA BREEZE...PIEDMONT TROUGH AND OTHER CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES. WINDS UP THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK WITH A LIGHT STEERING FLOW OUT OF THE W-NW AND SFC WINDS GENERALLY DOMINATED BY SEA/LAND BREEZE. IT WILL BE THE SUBTLE CHANGES IN WINDS AND MOISTURE THAT WILL DICTATE THE CHANGE IN CONVECTION EACH DAY. A FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE SOUTH WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO THE AREA BUT SOME ADDED MOISTURE WILL ADVECT SOUTHWARD MAY ADD TO CONVECTION ON WED WITH PCP WATER VALUES REACHING UP CLOSER TO 2 INCHES POOLING ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE STRONG RIDGE OVERHEAD AND H5 HEIGHTS UP NEAR 594 DEM AS WELL AS A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND. LOOKS LIKE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND 850 TEMPS WILL PEAK ON TUES AND THEREFORE EXPECT WARMEST TEMPS THIS DAY WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING TEMPS CLOSER TO THE COAST NEAR 100 AND TEMPS INLAND A FEW DEGREES HIGHER. THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WILL KEEP DEWPOINT TEMPS UP IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WHICH IN TURN WILL PRODUCE VERY HIGH HEAT INDICES AND MAINTAIN VERY WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPS. HEAT INDICES ON TUE WILL REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ONCE AGAIN BUT WED MY FALL JUST SHY. POTENTIAL FOR AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WILL EXIST ON TUES WITH HEAT INDICES UP TO 110F IN SPOTS. LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL UP IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...RIDGE HOLDS TOUGH FOR THE MOST PART BUT DOES GET SUPPRESSED SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND EAST ALLOWING FOR SOME H5 HEIGHT FALLS AND POSSIBLY SOME PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW ALOFT TO RIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. OVERALL EXPECT VERY WARM WEATHER TO CONTINUE WITH LOCALIZED CONVECTION MOST DAYS FOCUSED ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND PIEDMONT TROUGH. GFS DOES INDICATE A SHORTWAVE PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE CAROLINAS ON SAT INTO SUN WITH A STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT AND BETTER CHC FOR CONVECTION SAT AFTN INTO THE EVE. TEMPS WILL RUN SLIGHTLY LOWER TOWARDS THE WEEKEND WITH MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S AS COMPARED TO MID 90S TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS HOLDING CLOSER TO 70 OR SO...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO REMAIN IN THE MID 70S MOST PLACES. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 06Z...NEARLY CLEAR SKIES/VFR EXPECTED THROUGH SUNRISE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SW OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING LIGHT W-WNW TOWARDS SUNRISE. FEW-SCT CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE S WITH THE SEA BREEZE LATE MORNING AT KCRE AND IN THE AFTERNOON AT KMYR AND KILM. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ATTM ALONG THE SEA BREEZE PINNED NEAR THE COAST AND ALONG THE WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH LOCATED NEAR THE INLAND TERMINALS. WILL ONLY INDICATE VCSH ATTM. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND 00Z. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONCERT WITH A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WILL INCLUDE THE MORNING LAND BREEZE AND THE NEARLY PINNED AFTERNOON AND EVE SEABREEZE. THE WIND DIRECTION TO START THE PERIOD WILL BE FROM THE W AT LESS THAN 10 KT. SW WINDS WILL RETURN BY LATE MORNING AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE 10 TO 15 KT...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE DUE TO SEABREEZE INFLUENCES AND TONIGHT AS SOME NOCTURNAL JETTING RETURNS. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT TODAY WITH SOME 3 FT SEAS DEVELOPING LATER IN THE DAY AND BECOMING MORE PREVALENT TONIGHT. A WEAK 9 TO 11 SECOND SE SWELL WILL BE PRESENT. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT PREVAILING WINDS WILL ALLOW SEA/LAND BREEZE TO DOMINATE THE FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH MID WEEK. A WEAKENED BOUNDARY MAY GET A PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO PRODUCE A SHIFT IN WINDS TO THE N-NE AND EAST THROUGH WED. WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 KTS FOR THE MOST PART...BUT MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON WED. SEAS BASICALLY 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A LONGER PERIOD UP TO 11 SEC SOUTHEAST SWELL MIXING IN WITH THE SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVE. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN WITH LAND/SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH DRIVING THE WINDS EACH AFTN/EVE. WINDS MAY REACH UP TO 15 KTS ON FRI PRODUCING A SLIGHT RISE IN SEAS UP TO 3 TO 4 FT. GRADIENT TIGHTENS FURTHER HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND SHOULD SEE SW WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS BY SATURDAY WHICH IN TURN SHOULD PUSH THE SEAS UP TO 3 TO 5 FT. && .CLIMATE... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY... ALTHOUGH THIS MAY NOT BE RECORD-BREAKING HEAT IT`S STILL THE FIRST TIME IN ALMOST 3 YEARS WE`VE HAD THESE KIND OF TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST. 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 WILMINGTON 6/14/15 7/27/12 7/27/12 7/27/12 7/27/12 6/30/12 6/30/12 MYRTLE BEACH 6/14/15 7/24/12 7/28/05 7/27/05 7/27/05 8/17/54 8/17/54 FLORENCE 6/13/15 9/02/14 6/14/15 7/09/14 7/26/12 7/09/12 7/01/12 THIS IS ALSO AVAILABLE GRAPHICALLY ON OUR FACEBOOK & TWITTER PAGES && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053>056. NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-099-105>110. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...RJD/MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
935 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 925 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 FOR THIS UPDATE...TRIMMED BACK CLOUD COVER IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS. HRRR MODEL OUTPUT SEEMS TO AGREE WITH THIS PROGRESSION AND USED IT AS GUIDANCE FOR THE OVERNIGHT. ALSO DECREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST AS MOST OF THE SHOWERS HAVE EITHER MOVED OUT OF THE AREA OR DISSIPATED. THE ONLY OTHER CHANGE THAT WAS MADE WAS TO DELAY THE ONSET OF HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UPDATE ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. TRIMMED PRECIP CHANCES IN THE EAST BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND TOOK THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE ONGOING SHOWERS IN THE NEAR TERM...CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT...THEN CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY. CURRENTLY...QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT REMAINS WITH AN EMBEDDED S/WV TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A SFC RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. AREA OF MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE SOUTHWEST NOW MAINLY DRY. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE FROM WEST TO EAST THOUGH THE DAY WITH PRECIP ENDING AT KBIS MOMENTARILY...AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST...ALTHOUGH THIS IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY THE LONGER STRATUS REMAINS IN PLACE. EMBEDDED WAVE EXITS OFF TO OUR EAST LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS ALL OF WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ALL MODELS INDICATING STRATUS FIELD EXPANDING ACROSS MOST IF NOT ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AFTER 00Z...SO SKY COVER WAS KEPT ELEVATED TONIGHT WHICH WILL IN TURN KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY MODERATE IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. WITH HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE AND WITH RECENT MODERATE RAINFALL...FOG IS FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY THE STRATUS/DEVELOP FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE RAIN FELL. HIGH RES MODELS INDICATING POSSIBLE DENSE FOG OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...SO THIS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE HEADLINES. STRATUS AND FOG BURN OFF MOST AREAS 12-15Z TOMORROW MORNING...LINGERING ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY TILL LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA WILL PUSH A SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE WILL ACCOMPANY THE FROPA SO WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AN ACTIVE QUASI-ZONAL PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT EVERY 18 TO 36 HOURS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSES MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. LIMITED CAPE WITH THE NAM DEPICTING 100-500 J/KG AND THE GFS ZERO. THURSDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. INSTABILITY INCREASES IN THE WEST WITH TIME DURING THE DAY AS THE NEXT STRONGER UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WAVE MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WIND SHEAR INCREASES WITH SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE TO H850 WINDS AND SOUTHWESTERLY H700 WINDS...BUT THE BEST CAPE REMAINS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE STATE. STILL...COULD BE STRONG STORMS IN THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. THURSDAY NIGHT YET ANOTHER STRONGER SET OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WAVES MOVES EAST ACROSS THE STATE. HAVE HIGH CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WIND SHEAR INCREASES FURTHER WITH OVER 60 KNOTS OF SHEAR - SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WITH SOUTHERLY H850 WINDS AT 30- 45 KNOTS AND SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY H700 WINDS. THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE STORMS IS MOST UNSTABLE CAPE...WITH VALUES REACHING 1000 J/KG OVER SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...BUT MUCH STRONGER VALUES FARTHER SOUTH. STILL...COULD BE SOME STRONG STORMS SOUTHWEST AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL. FRIDAY IS WHEN THE STRONG/HIGH CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES COINCIDE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL JET MOVES/DEVELOPS INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THE STRONGEST STORMS FOR OUR AREA MAY BE THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY EVENING THE LOW LEVEL JET IS INTO MINNESOTA...HOWEVER THE NEXT ROUND OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSES MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY STRONG...FRIDAY NIGHT FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST NEARLY EACH PERIOD SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WERE MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. LINGERING SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER KJMS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERNIGHT...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO BRING PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS TO ALL SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KISN. FOG SHOULD START TO DISSIPATE IN THE 14-16Z TIME FRAME...GIVING WAY TO MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...ZH SHORT TERM...NH LONG TERM...JV AVIATION...ZH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
658 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 THE RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE SOME RE-DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WITH AN INCREASING LLJ OVERNIGHT INTO THE SOUTH. WE WILL ADD SOME MORE FOG TO THE GRIDS LATE TONIGHT...WITH THE HRRR INDICATING SOME LOW VSBYS POSSIBLE FROM THE VALLEY WEST. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 MAIN CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE THE ONGOING PCPN...HOW FAR NORTH DOES IT GET AND HOW MUCH ACTUALLY FALLS. AS OF 3 PM SEEING THE PCPN MAINLY STAYING ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 AS EXPECTED. AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN ON THE LIGHT SIDE FOR MOST OF THE FA SO FAR. KJMS HAS PICKED UP ABOUT A HALF AN INCH...BUT KFAR ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS SO FAR. 88D ESTIMATING ABOUT A QUARTER OR MORE FROM WAHPETON TO VALLEY CITY. MODELS SLOWLY MOVE THIS AREA OF PCPN EASTWARD TONIGHT...STILL KEEPING IT ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. WPC HAS BACKED OFF A BIT ON QPF AMOUNTS...GIVING SYSTEM TOTALS OF A QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH. KEPT A MENTION OF PCPN THRU WED MORNING ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS MOVE IT OUT A LITTLE SOONER. ONLY KEPT A MENTION OF THUNDER LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING WHEN MODELS STILL TRY TO NOSE UP NEGATIVE SHOWALTER INDICES INTO OUR FAR SOUTHEAST. MAY ALSO BE SOME FOG FORMATION LATE ACROSS THE SW FA. WED HIGHS SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER IN THE WEST/NW UNLESS FOG OR STRATUS LINGERS FROM THE EARLY MORNING. NEXT COLD FRONT STILL DROPS SOUTHWARD OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA ON WED NIGHT WHICH COULD BRING A LITTLE PCPN TO AREAS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. SOME INSTABILITY PRESENT BUT IT SEEMS TO DISAPPEAR PRETTY QUICKLY. DID KEEP THE ISOLATED THUNDER THAT WAS MENTIONED. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THU ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL STAY ON THE COOL SIDE. NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN LOOKS TO BE THU NIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN FA...THEN CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY AS WELL. MODELS STILL ALL OVER THE BOARD WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS. THE GFS WOULD REALLY HAMMER THE SOUTHERN FA...SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. OTHER MODELS NOT NEARLY SO BAD...SO JURY STILL OUT FOR FRIDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 THERE SHOULD BE AN EXPANSION OF THE IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL ND INTO EASTERN ND OVERNIGHT. HAVE STARTED TO MENTION SOME LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WITH SOME PATCHY FOG LATER TONIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT WESTERLY ON WED...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DK SHORT TERM...GODON LONG TERM...GODON/TG AVIATION...DK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1112 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1115 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 WE WILL DO A QUICK UPDATE TO ADD ISOLATED SHOWERS TO NE ND AND NW MN THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR AND OTHER CAM MODELS INDICATE SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION AND SHOWERS...SO WILL ADD MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH COLD POOL ALOFT. THERE IS NO INSTABILITY TO SPEAK OF...WITH PERHAPS 100-200J/KG OF CAPE PERHAPS...SO CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES...IT SHOULD MAINLY BE SHOWERS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES/COVERAGE LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH MAIN DIFFERENCES BEING NORTHWARD EXTENT OF RAIN DURING NEXT EVENT. FOR TODAY HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COOL AIRMASS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S NORTH TO UPPER 60S S WITH SHALLOW MOIST LAYER AOB 800MB SO EXPECTING CU DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY HAVE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. HIGH IS CENTERED OVER FA TONIGHT. WITH SKC AND LIGHT WINDS MOST AREAS WILL SEE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. NEXT WAVE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE DAY. EXPECT RAIN TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ADVANCING CLOUDS WILL OFFSET RETURN FLOW/WARM ADVECTION FOR ANOTHER COOL DAY. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 RAIN AREA WILL SPREAD EAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTH. WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT INCREASED POPS THERE. UNSURE OF NORTHWARD EXTENT OF RAIN SHIELD BUT AT MINIMUM INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA SHOULD STAY DRY. SOME NEGATIVE SHOWALTERS CLIP ND/SD BORDER AREA SO INCLUDED THUNDER THERE WITH REMAINDER OF THE FA JUST RAIN THROUGH THE EVENT. ANY LINGERING RA ACROSS THE SE FA SHOULD CLEAR BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION SO IF WE CAN GET SOME SOLAR TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET ABOVE 70. MODELS DIFFER ON RAIN POTENTIAL ALONG CANADIAN BORDER WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO NO CHANGES MADE. LONG WAVE PATTERN REMAINS SPLIT WITH NORTHERN STREAM OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND SOUTHERN STREAM OVER THE NORTHERN STATES. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA EXPANDS FARTHER EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. RIDGE TROUGH COUPLET OVER BERING STRAITS AND THE WEST COAST OF CANADA WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING OCCURS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AFTER DAY 5. THE ECMWF WAS SLOWING DOWN OVER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS WHILE THE GFS WAS BECOMING FASTER. WILL BLEND THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. HIGH TEMPS WERE DECREASED ONE OF TWO DEGREES FOR THU AND FRI. LITTLE CHANGE ON SAT AND SUN. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 WILL SEE VFR CU FIELD DEVELOP LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DK SHORT TERM...VOELKER LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1252 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. EVENING SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH TOWARDS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. MODELS INDICATE THESE CLOUDS ENCROACHING INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA 12-15 UTC MONDAY...WITH SOME DISCREPANCIES ABOUT HOW QUICKLY THEY WILL ERODE. FOR NOW WE DID BUMP UP SKY COVER A LITTLE MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. UPDATE ISSUED AT 906 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015 LATEST REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS DWINDLING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT...LOCATED FROM PEMBINA TO GRAFTON...STRETCHING SOUTHWEST INTO GARRISON TO NEAR GRASSY BUTTE. CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE FRONT SAGGING SOUTH TO THE BORDER THROUGH 06Z. EXPECT A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AFTER SUNSET. UPDATE ISSUED AT 515 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015 LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF WEAK 3HR PRESSURE FALLS CONFINED MOSTLY TO SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A 90KT-100KT JETSTREAK PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SECONDARY/WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM BRANDON MANITOBA/CYBR...TO MINOT/KMOT...AND WEST TO SIDNEY/KSDY MONTANA. RESULTANT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PULSATING UP AND DOWN PER LATEST REGIONAL/KMOT RADAR CONTINUES OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL. THE LATEST HRRR VERIFYING WELL AND REMAINS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH WEAKENS/DISSIPATES THE SHOWERS THROUGH 03Z MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER BETWEEN 06Z-09Z WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. INHERITED FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015 FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN DRY AND COOL WEATHER FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. CURRENTLY...QUASI-ZONAL/CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AS HIGH RES MODELS EARLIER INDICATED. HRRR AND 4KM NMM WRF GENERATE ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SO EXPECT WEATHER TRENDING DRY THROUGH THE EVENING. FLOW ALOFT REMAINS QUASI-ZONAL WITH DRY AND COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. RESULTANT WEATHER WILL BE PLEASANT...HIGHS 65-75...LIGHT WINDS...AND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015 MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY LOOKS ACTIVE WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVERYDAY. MONDAY NIGHT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOWING MINIMAL CAPE AND SHOWALTER INDICES ABOVE ZERO. THEREFORE...REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY...WITH PRIMARILY RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...SEVERAL FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS WILL SWING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVERY DAY OVER THE NEXT WEEK. ADDITIONALLY...WITH SEVERAL COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THIS WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 FOR THE 06 UTC TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE PERIOD WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. MAINLY LOW VFR CLOUDS BUT SOME SCATTERED MVFR CLOUDS AS WELL ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA 12-15 UTC MONDAY...THEN TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES OF KDIK...KBIS AND KJMS AROUND 18 UTC MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES ASSOCIATED WITH HOW QUICKLY THESE CLOUDS WILL ERODE DURING THE DAY MONDAY. MODEL BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BETWEEN 850-700MB OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. FOR NOW WILL MENTION A BROKEN LAYER OF VFR CEILINGS MONDAY BUT WILL NOT MENTION ANY MVFR CEILINGS. NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 00-06Z TUESDAY. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...TWH SHORT TERM...NH LONG TERM...AJ AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1149 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015 LIGHT WINDS OVER THE RRV INTO NW MN AND CLEARING HAS PRODUCED SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE USUAL AREAS..I.E. BEMIDJI. ADDED PATCHY FOG IN THAT AREA. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015 CURRENT SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS AXIS OF A 1000 PLUS J/KG MXD LYR CAPE ALONG THE SD/MN STATE LINE WITH 500 TO 1000 J/KG EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL MN AND CLIPPING THE FAR SE...HOWEVER THAT AREA IS NOW CLOUD COVERED AND INSTABILITY SHOULD DECREASE THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN. RADAR TRENDS SHOW REMAINING ACTIVITY MOVING INTO NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WITH EASTERN ND CLEARING OUT AND RECEIVING SUNSHINE. LAST HRRR UPDATE FOR 1 PM FCST HAD GOOD HANDLE ON THESE TRENDS AND WILL NOT NEED MUCH CHANGE...BUT WILL UPDATE NEAR TERM WITH LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE PRIOR TO FCST ISSUANCE. THERE IS CLEARNING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND SOME CU AND MID LEVEL CLOUD EVIDENT AS A NORTHERN VORT MAX MOVES IN TO SRN MB...HOWEVER THERE IS VIRTUALLY NO CAPE IN THE AREA. A CELL DID DEVELOP NORTH OF MINOT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE MORE THAN ISOLD TO WIDELY SCT. MOST LIKELY AREA FOR ANY ISOLD STORMS WOULD BE DVL REGION UP TO THE INTL BORDER. SFC HIGH DROPS INTO REGION ON MONDAY AND SHOULD BRING SUNNY SKIES BUT A COOL CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S DURING THE DAY...AND CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 40S AS THE SFC HIGH IS RIGHT OVER THE VALLEY AT 06Z TUESDAY. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015 TUE AND WED...WARM ADVECTION PRECIP SPREADS MAINLY ACROSS SD DURING THE DAY TUE AND LIFTS IN TO OUR CWA BY LATE TUE AFTN. SHOWALTERS REMAIN 4 OR GREATER WITH MEAN LYR CAPES LESS THAN 100 IN THE FAR SOUTH...SO HAVE CHANGED PRECIP TYPE OVER TO SHRA. PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO PULL PRECIP OUT OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST LATE WED AFTN INTO WED NIGHT. BEYOND TUE/WED SHRA ACTIVITY...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL COME ON FRIDAY. THE GFS IS PROGGING A STRONG SFC LOW AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THE ECMWF ALSO HAS POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SHOWERS AND STORMS...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS UNSTABLE AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH DEEP MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD START OUT A BIT BELOW NORMAL AND WARM TO NEAR NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015 PATCHY GROUND FOG AT BEMIDJI AND MAYBE THIEF RIVER OVERNIGHT SO ADDED TEMPO FOR 1SM VSBY. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT BECOMING NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 KTS ON MONDAY. CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP MID MORNING BECOMING BROKEN DECK IN THE 4-6K FT RANGE MIDDAY AND AFTN. THEN CLEAR EARLY EVENING. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...RIDDLE SHORT TERM...SPEICHER LONG TERM...DK/SPEICHER AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
137 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WARM AND HUMID AREAWIDE...WITH A BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH. UPPER HIGH EDGES IN FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT EDGES SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA TUESDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATE... CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ENTERING THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE...AWAITING THE CONVECTION TO FIRE WITH THE HEATING TODAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY. RUC HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON A DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV THIS MORNING...SO WILL RELY ON THE RUC FOR MORNING POPS. BY THIS AFTERNOON...EACH MODEL VARIES ON THE PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION. SINCE DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST...WILL RUN THE HIGHEST POPS IN THIS REGION AND RUN LOWER POPS IN THE SOUTH WHERE SOME DRIER AIR IS TRYING TO INTRUDE. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AN ACTIVE SHORT TERM ON TAP WITH A BUILDING WATER ISSUE ACROSS SE OH AND N WV. TUES LOOKS TO BE AN ACTIVE DAY AS A DAMPENING S/W TROF ATTEMPTS TO BEAT BACK THE UPPER RIDGE ENOUGH TO ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SAG INTO THE CWA. AS A RESULT WILL CONTINUE THE LIKELY POPS FROM PREVIOUS FCST CENTERED OVER SE OH AND N HALF OF WV...PRIMED DURING MAX HEATING HRS. SOME STRONG TO SVR STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS SPC HAS PLACED AREAS N OF I64 IN SLIGHT RISK. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL TRY TO MAKE IT DOWN TO US 50 CORRIDOR BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY BY TUES NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS SE OH AND N WV LOWLANDS TUESDAY GIVEN HIGH PWATS AND POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING ALONG THE SAGGING FRONT. SOME OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BEGINS TO WANE TUES NIGHT SO THINK THE OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL FOLLOW SUITE AND TEND TO FOCUS JUST ON THE BOUNDARY. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE HEADING INTO WED WITH HOW THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN PLAYS OUT. THE MORE AMPLIFIED NAM TAKES A STOUT S/W TROF OUT OF THE S PLAINS WHICH ALLOWS THE RIDGE TO BUILD BACK N AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO HEAD BACK N AS WELL AND WASH OUT. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE MUCH MORE TAME WITH THIS DISTURBANCE AND HOLD DOWN THE RIDGE...ALLOWING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO REMAIN DRAPED OVER N PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL TRY TO PLAY A MIDDLE ROAD SOLUTION WHICH SEEMS TO BETTER REFLECT THE NEW EURO SOLUTION. THIS ALLOWS FOR MORE STORMS OVER SE OH AND N WV WITH LOWER CHANCES S OF I64 CORRIDOR. THINGS TRY TO QUIET SOME WED NIGHT BUT WITH THE FRONT STILL AROUND...KEPT SOME HIGHER POPS IN OVER SE OH AND N WV. THU APPEARS TO BE AN ACTIVE DAY WAS WELL AT LEAST FOR SE OH WITH THE LINGERING BOUNDARY AND CONTINUED DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE A BEATEN DOWN RIDGE. TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO MET/SREF/PREVIOUS WITH THE MAV LOOKING A BIT TOO LOW. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... WE HAVE LOST THE GFS SOLUTION SHOWING A BREAK IN THE WEATHER FRI INTO SAT. WHILE A LARGE NRN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL CROSSES ERN CANADA THU INTO THU NT...IT DOES NOT DIG AS FAR S AS PREVIOUSLY PROGGED...AND THE COLD FRONT AND CANADIAN HIGH DO NOT GET AS FAR S EITHER...SO THE FCST AREA STAYS IN THE SOUP. IT DOES STILL SHOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE DEEP S LIFTING OUT AND REACHING THE FCST AREA THU...SO THIS STILL LOOKS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY. STILL TRIED TO STAY AWAY FROM WPC CAT POPS. BUT HAVE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY. THE ECMWF HOLDS THAT S/W TROUGH BACK UNTIL FRI NT/SAT. OTHERWISE THE MODELS BASICALLY SHOW A CONTINUATION OF THE GENERAL PATTERN. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH SLOWLY EASES OFF THE SE COAST...WHICH ALLOWS THE BOTTOM OF THE WESTERLIES TO SAG A BIT FARTHER SWD...INTO THE FCST AREA...NEXT WEEKEND. LITTLE CHANGES NEED TO TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE MOSTLY A BLEND OF PREVIOUS...WPC AND THE MEX. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS SET THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON IN TERMS OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE TERMINALS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. TIMING BEYOND WHAT IS IMMEDIATELY OCCURRING AND PROJECTING THE ARRIVAL TIME IS TRICKY...SO HAVE USED VCTS QUITE A BIT CONSIDERING THE EXPECTED NEW DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. ALSO HAVE KEPT CONDITIONS MVFR...ALTHOUGH IFR HITS AND MISSES ARE LIKELY BASED ON FLUCTUATIONS IN THE VISIBILITIES IN STORMS. FOG WILL BE DIFFICULT TO COME BY TONIGHT WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. ONLY TAKE EKN DOWN TO IFR. MORE CONVECTION EXPECTED TUESDAY AS THE PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF CONVECTION...EXACT TIMING AND INTENSITY IS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS. AMENDMENTS LIKELY. .AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. TIMING AND INTENSITY OF MORNING FOG WILL DEPENDS OF LOCATIONS THAT GET RAIN AND CAN CLEAR OUT AT NIGHT. && WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FB/RPY/30 NEAR TERM...FB/RPY/26 SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...JSH/TRM AVIATION...26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1006 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WARM AND HUMID AREAWIDE...WITH A BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH. UPPER HIGH EDGES IN FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT EDGES SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA TUESDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATE... CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ENTERING THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE...AWAITING THE CONVECTION TO FIRE WITH THE HEATING TODAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY. RUC HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON A DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV THIS MORNING...SO WILL RELY ON THE RUC FOR MORNING POPS. BY THIS AFTERNOON...EACH MODEL VARIES ON THE PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION. SINCE DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST...WILL RUN THE HIGHEST POPS IN THIS REGION AND RUN LOWER POPS IN THE SOUTH WHERE SOME DRIER AIR IS TRYING TO INTRUDE. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AN ACTIVE SHORT TERM ON TAP WITH A BUILDING WATER ISSUE ACROSS SE OH AND N WV. TUES LOOKS TO BE AN ACTIVE DAY AS A DAMPENING S/W TROF ATTEMPTS TO BEAT BACK THE UPPER RIDGE ENOUGH TO ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SAG INTO THE CWA. AS A RESULT WILL CONTINUE THE LIKELY POPS FROM PREVIOUS FCST CENTERED OVER SE OH AND N HALF OF WV...PRIMED DURING MAX HEATING HRS. SOME STRONG TO SVR STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS SPC HAS PLACED AREAS N OF I64 IN SLIGHT RISK. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL TRY TO MAKE IT DOWN TO US 50 CORRIDOR BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY BY TUES NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS SE OH AND N WV LOWLANDS TUESDAY GIVEN HIGH PWATS AND POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING ALONG THE SAGGING FRONT. SOME OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BEGINS TO WANE TUES NIGHT SO THINK THE OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL FOLLOW SUITE AND TEND TO FOCUS JUST ON THE BOUNDARY. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE HEADING INTO WED WITH HOW THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN PLAYS OUT. THE MORE AMPLIFIED NAM TAKES A STOUT S/W TROF OUT OF THE S PLAINS WHICH ALLOWS THE RIDGE TO BUILD BACK N AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO HEAD BACK N AS WELL AND WASH OUT. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE MUCH MORE TAME WITH THIS DISTURBANCE AND HOLD DOWN THE RIDGE...ALLOWING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO REMAIN DRAPED OVER N PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL TRY TO PLAY A MIDDLE ROAD SOLUTION WHICH SEEMS TO BETTER REFLECT THE NEW EURO SOLUTION. THIS ALLOWS FOR MORE STORMS OVER SE OH AND N WV WITH LOWER CHANCES S OF I64 CORRIDOR. THINGS TRY TO QUIET SOME WED NIGHT BUT WITH THE FRONT STILL AROUND...KEPT SOME HIGHER POPS IN OVER SE OH AND N WV. THU APPEARS TO BE AN ACTIVE DAY WAS WELL AT LEAST FOR SE OH WITH THE LINGERING BOUNDARY AND CONTINUED DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE A BEATEN DOWN RIDGE. TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO MET/SREF/PREVIOUS WITH THE MAV LOOKING A BIT TOO LOW. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... WE HAVE LOST THE GFS SOLUTION SHOWING A BREAK IN THE WEATHER FRI INTO SAT. WHILE A LARGE NRN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL CROSSES ERN CANADA THU INTO THU NT...IT DOES NOT DIG AS FAR S AS PREVIOUSLY PROGGED...AND THE COLD FRONT AND CANADIAN HIGH DO NOT GET AS FAR S EITHER...SO THE FCST AREA STAYS IN THE SOUP. IT DOES STILL SHOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE DEEP S LIFTING OUT AND REACHING THE FCST AREA THU...SO THIS STILL LOOKS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY. STILL TRIED TO STAY AWAY FROM WPC CAT POPS. BUT HAVE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY. THE ECMWF HOLDS THAT S/W TROUGH BACK UNTIL FRI NT/SAT. OTHERWISE THE MODELS BASICALLY SHOW A CONTINUATION OF THE GENERAL PATTERN. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH SLOWLY EASES OFF THE SE COAST...WHICH ALLOWS THE BOTTOM OF THE WESTERLIES TO SAG A BIT FARTHER SWD...INTO THE FCST AREA...NEXT WEEKEND. LITTLE CHANGES NEED TO TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE MOSTLY A BLEND OF PREVIOUS...WPC AND THE MEX. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. A DISTURBANCE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL OHIO AND NORTHERN WV EARLY THIS MORNING. AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF CONVECTION...EXACT TIMING AND INTENSITY IS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS. .AFTER 12Z TUESDAY... BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. TIMING AND INTENSITY OF MORNING FOG WILL DEPENDS OF LOCATIONS THAT GET RAIN. && WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FB/RPY/30 NEAR TERM...FB/RPY/26 SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...JSH/TRM AVIATION...RPY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
601 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WARM AND HUMID AREAWIDE...WITH A BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH. UPPER HIGH EDGES IN FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT EDGES SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA TUESDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY. RUC HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON A DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV THIS MORNING...SO WILL RELY ON THE RUC FOR MORNING POPS. BY THIS AFTERNOON...EACH MODEL VARIES ON THE PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION. SINCE DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST...WILL RUN THE HIGHEST POPS IN THIS REGION AND RUN LOWER POPS IN THE SOUTH WHERE SOME DRIER AIR IS TRYING TO INTRUDE. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AN ACTIVE SHORT TERM ON TAP WITH A BUILDING WATER ISSUE ACROSS SE OH AND N WV. TUES LOOKS TO BE AN ACTIVE DAY AS A DAMPENING S/W TROF ATTEMPTS TO BEAT BACK THE UPPER RIDGE ENOUGH TO ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SAG INTO THE CWA. AS A RESULT WILL CONTINUE THE LIKELY POPS FROM PREVIOUS FCST CENTERED OVER SE OH AND N HALF OF WV...PRIMED DURING MAX HEATING HRS. SOME STRONG TO SVR STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS SPC HAS PLACED AREAS N OF I64 IN SLIGHT RISK. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL TRY TO MAKE IT DOWN TO US 50 CORRIDOR BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY BY TUES NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS SE OH AND N WV LOWLANDS TUESDAY GIVEN HIGH PWATS AND POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING ALONG THE SAGGING FRONT. SOME OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BEGINS TO WANE TUES NIGHT SO THINK THE OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL FOLLOW SUITE AND TEND TO FOCUS JUST ON THE BOUNDARY. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE HEADING INTO WED WITH HOW THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN PLAYS OUT. THE MORE AMPLIFIED NAM TAKES A STOUT S/W TROF OUT OF THE S PLAINS WHICH ALLOWS THE RIDGE TO BUILD BACK N AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO HEAD BACK N AS WELL AND WASH OUT. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE MUCH MORE TAME WITH THIS DISTURBANCE AND HOLD DOWN THE RIDGE...ALLOWING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO REMAIN DRAPED OVER N PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL TRY TO PLAY A MIDDLE ROAD SOLUTION WHICH SEEMS TO BETTER REFLECT THE NEW EURO SOLUTION. THIS ALLOWS FOR MORE STORMS OVER SE OH AND N WV WITH LOWER CHANCES S OF I64 CORRIDOR. THINGS TRY TO QUIET SOME WED NIGHT BUT WITH THE FRONT STILL AROUND...KEPT SOME HIGHER POPS IN OVER SE OH AND N WV. THU APPEARS TO BE AN ACTIVE DAY WAS WELL AT LEAST FOR SE OH WITH THE LINGERING BOUNDARY AND CONTINUED DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE A BEATEN DOWN RIDGE. TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO MET/SREF/PREVIOUS WITH THE MAV LOOKING A BIT TOO LOW. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... WE HAVE LOST THE GFS SOLUTION SHOWING A BREAK IN THE WEATHER FRI INTO SAT. WHILE A LARGE NRN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL CROSSES ERN CANADA THU INTO THU NT...IT DOES NOT DIG AS FAR S AS PREVIOUSLY PROGGED...AND THE COLD FRONT AND CANADIAN HIGH DO NOT GET AS FAR S EITHER...SO THE FCST AREA STAYS IN THE SOUP. IT DOES STILL SHOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE DEEP S LIFTING OUT AND REACHING THE FCST AREA THU...SO THIS STILL LOOKS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY. STILL TRIED TO STAY AWAY FROM WPC CAT POPS. BUT HAVE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY. THE ECMWF HOLDS THAT S/W TROUGH BACK UNTIL FRI NT/SAT. OTHERWISE THE MODELS BASICALLY SHOW A CONTINUATION OF THE GENERAL PATTERN. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH SLOWLY EASES OFF THE SE COAST...WHICH ALLOWS THE BOTTOM OF THE WESTERLIES TO SAG A BIT FARTHER SWD...INTO THE FCST AREA...NEXT WEEKEND. LITTLE CHANGES NEED TO TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE MOSTLY A BLEND OF PREVIOUS...WPC AND THE MEX. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. A DISTURBANCE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL OHIO AND NORTHERN WV EARLY THIS MORNING. AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF CONVECTION...EXACT TIMING AND INTENSITY IS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS. .AFTER 12Z TUESDAY... BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. TIMING AND INTENSITY OF MORNING FOG WILL DEPENDS OF LOCATIONS THAT GET RAIN. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FB/RPY/30 NEAR TERM...FB/RPY SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...JSH/TRM AVIATION...RPY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
340 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WARM AND HUMID AREAWIDE...WITH A BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH. UPPER HIGH EDGES IN FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT EDGES SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA TUESDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY. RUC HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON A DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV THIS MORNING...SO WILL RELY ON THE RUC FOR MORNING POPS. BY THIS AFTERNOON...EACH MODEL VARIES ON THE PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION. SINCE DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST...WILL RUN THE HIGHEST POPS IN THIS REGION AND RUN LOWER POPS IN THE SOUTH WHERE SOME DRIER AIR IS TRYING TO INTRUDE. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AN ACTIVE SHORT TERM ON TAP WITH A BUILDING WATER ISSUE ACROSS SE OH AND N WV. TUES LOOKS TO BE AN ACTIVE DAY AS A DAMPENING S/W TROF ATTEMPTS TO BEAT BACK THE UPPER RIDGE ENOUGH TO ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SAG INTO THE CWA. AS A RESULT WILL CONTINUE THE LIKELY POPS FROM PREVIOUS FCST CENTERED OVER SE OH AND N HALF OF WV...PRIMED DURING MAX HEATING HRS. SOME STRONG TO SVR STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS SPC HAS PLACED AREAS N OF I64 IN SLIGHT RISK. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL TRY TO MAKE IT DOWN TO US 50 CORRIDOR BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY BY TUES NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS SE OH AND N WV LOWLANDS TUESDAY GIVEN HIGH PWATS AND POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING ALONG THE SAGGING FRONT. SOME OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BEGINS TO WANE TUES NIGHT SO THINK THE OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL FOLLOW SUITE AND TEND TO FOCUS JUST ON THE BOUNDARY. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE HEADING INTO WED WITH HOW THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN PLAYS OUT. THE MORE AMPLIFIED NAM TAKES A STOUT S/W TROF OUT OF THE S PLAINS WHICH ALLOWS THE RIDGE TO BUILD BACK N AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO HEAD BACK N AS WELL AND WASH OUT. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE MUCH MORE TAME WITH THIS DISTURBANCE AND HOLD DOWN THE RIDGE...ALLOWING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO REMAIN DRAPED OVER N PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL TRY TO PLAY A MIDDLE ROAD SOLUTION WHICH SEEMS TO BETTER REFLECT THE NEW EURO SOLUTION. THIS ALLOWS FOR MORE STORMS OVER SE OH AND N WV WITH LOWER CHANCES S OF I64 CORRIDOR. THINGS TRY TO QUIET SOME WED NIGHT BUT WITH THE FRONT STILL AROUND...KEPT SOME HIGHER POPS IN OVER SE OH AND N WV. THU APPEARS TO BE AN ACTIVE DAY WAS WELL AT LEAST FOR SE OH WITH THE LINGERING BOUNDARY AND CONTINUED DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE A BEATEN DOWN RIDGE. TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO MET/SREF/PREVIOUS WITH THE MAV LOOKING A BIT TOO LOW. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... WE HAVE LOST THE GFS SOLUTION SHOWING A BREAK IN THE WEATHER FRI INTO SAT. WHILE A LARGE NRN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL CROSSES ERN CANADA THU INTO THU NT...IT DOES NOT DIG AS FAR S AS PREVIOUSLY PROGGED...AND THE COLD FRONT AND CANADIAN HIGH DO NOT GET AS FAR S EITHER...SO THE FCST AREA STAYS IN THE SOUP. IT DOES STILL SHOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE DEEP S LIFTING OUT AND REACHING THE FCST AREA THU...SO THIS STILL LOOKS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY. STILL TRIED TO STAY AWAY FROM WPC CAT POPS. BUT HAVE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY. THE ECMWF HOLDS THAT S/W TROUGH BACK UNTIL FRI NT/SAT. OTHERWISE THE MODELS BASICALLY SHOW A CONTINUATION OF THE GENERAL PATTERN. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH SLOWLY EASES OFF THE SE COAST...WHICH ALLOWS THE BOTTOM OF THE WESTERLIES TO SAG A BIT FARTHER SWD...INTO THE FCST AREA...NEXT WEEKEND. LITTLE CHANGES NEED TO TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE MOSTLY A BLEND OF PREVIOUS...WPC AND THE MEX. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. A DISTURBANCE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV EARLY THIS MORNING. AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF CONVECTION...EXACT TIMING IS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS. .AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. TIMING AND INTENSITY OF MORNING FOG WILL DEPENDS OF LOCATIONS THAT GET RAIN. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FB/RPY/30 NEAR TERM...FB/RPY SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...JSH/TRM AVIATION...RPY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
340 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS... WARM AND HUMID AREAWIDE...WITH A BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH. UPPER HIGH EDGES IN FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT EDGES SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA TUESDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY. RUC HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON A DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV THIS MORNING...SO WILL RELY ON THE RUC FOR MORNING POPS. BY THIS AFTERNOON...EACH MODEL VARIES ON THE PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION. SINCE DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST...WILL RUN THE HIGHEST POPS IN THIS REGION AND RUN LOWER POPS IN THE SOUTH WHERE SOME DRIER AIR IS TRYING TO INTRUDE. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AN ACTIVE SHORT TERM ON TAP WITH A BUILDING WATER ISSUE ACROSS SE OH AND N WV. TUES LOOKS TO BE AN ACTIVE DAY AS A DAMPENING S/W TROF ATTEMPTS TO BEAT BACK THE UPPER RIDGE ENOUGH TO ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SAG INTO THE CWA. AS A RESULT WILL CONTINUE THE LIKELY POPS FROM PREVIOUS FCST CENTERED OVER SE OH AND N HALF OF WV...PRIMED DURING MAX HEATING HRS. SOME STRONG TO SVR STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS SPC HAS PLACED AREAS N OF I64 IN SLIGHT RISK. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL TRY TO MAKE IT DOWN TO US 50 CORRIDOR BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY BY TUES NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS SE OH AND N WV LOWLANDS TUESDAY GIVEN HIGH PWATS AND POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING ALONG THE SAGGING FRONT. SOME OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BEGINS TO WANE TUES NIGHT SO THINK THE OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL FOLLOW SUITE AND TEND TO FOCUS JUST ON THE BOUNDARY. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE HEADING INTO WED WITH HOW THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN PLAYS OUT. THE MORE AMPLIFIED NAM TAKES A STOUT S/W TROF OUT OF THE S PLAINS WHICH ALLOWS THE RIDGE TO BUILD BACK N AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO HEAD BACK N AS WELL AND WASH OUT. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE MUCH MORE TAME WITH THIS DISTURBANCE AND HOLD DOWN THE RIDGE...ALLOWING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO REMAIN DRAPED OVER N PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL TRY TO PLAY A MIDDLE ROAD SOLUTION WHICH SEEMS TO BETTER REFLECT THE NEW EURO SOLUTION. THIS ALLOWS FOR MORE STORMS OVER SE OH AND N WV WITH LOWER CHANCES S OF I64 CORRIDOR. THINGS TRY TO QUIET SOME WED NIGHT BUT WITH THE FRONT STILL AROUND...KEPT SOME HIGHER POPS IN OVER SE OH AND N WV. THU APPEARS TO BE AN ACTIVE DAY WAS WELL AT LEAST FOR SE OH WITH THE LINGERING BOUNDARY AND CONTINUED DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE A BEATEN DOWN RIDGE. TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO MET/SREF/PREVIOUS WITH THE MAV LOOKING A BIT TOO LOW. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... WE HAVE LOST THE GFS SOLUTION SHOWING A BREAK IN THE WEATHER FRI INTO SAT. WHILE A LARGE NRN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL CROSSES ERN CANADA THU INTO THU NT...IT DOES NOT DIG AS FAR S AS PREVIOUSLY PROGGED...AND THE COLD FRONT AND CANADIAN HIGH DO NOT GET AS FAR S EITHER...SO THE FCST AREA STAYS IN THE SOUP. IT DOES STILL SHOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE DEEP S LIFTING OUT AND REACHING THE FCST AREA THU...SO THIS STILL LOOKS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY. STILL TRIED TO STAY AWAY FROM WPC CAT POPS. BUT HAVE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY. THE ECMWF HOLDS THAT S/W TROUGH BACK UNTIL FRI NT/SAT. OTHERWISE THE MODELS BASICALLY SHOW A CONTINUATION OF THE GENERAL PATTERN. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH SLOWLY EASES OFF THE SE COAST...WHICH ALLOWS THE BOTTOM OF THE WESTERLIES TO SAG A BIT FARTHER SWD...INTO THE FCST AREA...NEXT WEEKEND. LITTLE CHANGES NEED TO TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE MOSTLY A BLEND OF PREVIOUS...WPC AND THE MEX. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. A DISTURBANCE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV EARLY THIS MORNING. AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF CONVECTION...EXACT TIMING IS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS. .AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. TIMING AND INTENSITY OF MORNING FOG WILL DEPENDS OF LOCATIONS THAT GET RAIN. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FB/RPY/30 NEAR TERM...FB/RPY SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...JSH/TRM AVIATION...RPY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
130 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WARM AND HUMID AREAWIDE...WITH A BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH. UPPER HIGH EDGES IN FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT EDGES SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA TUESDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... CURRENT FORECAST IS RIGHT ON TRACK. HIGH RES SHORT TERM MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A SHORTWAVE CROSSING TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT. THE CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST SHOULD BE GOOD. IT IS POSSIBLE NOTHING WILL RESULT LIKE THE SHOWERS FROM THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MAKE ANY CHANGES. ... 8 PM UPDATE... CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MINIMAL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND ANY STORMS THAT DID DEVELOP HAD A HARD TIME REACHING THE FREEZING LEVEL. RUC AND HRRR KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NORTH AS ANOTHER IMPULSE IF FORECASTED. SO WON/T MAKE MANY IF ANY CHANGES TO WHAT CURRENTLY HAVE. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH AND RE-EVALUATE. MAY NEED TO LOWER OVERNIGHT POPS. ...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE WARM AND HUMID WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE REGION...AND WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES TOPPING THE RIDGE AT TIMES...CONTINUING TO SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH AT 17Z...WILL HELP TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTH. ACROSS THE NORTH IS ALSO THE BEST LOCATION FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER...WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE...AS 30-40 KTS UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN PLACE. OF COURSE...A SEVERE STORM DRIFTING SOUTHEAST INTO OTHER PARTS OF THE CWA SUCH AS CENTRAL WV...CANNOT BE RULED COMPLETELY OUT...AND ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DRIFTING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA WILL ONLY HELP TO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. IN ADDITION...VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE REALIZED WITH ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS. THIS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ISSUES IF REPETITIVE STORMS HIT THE SAME LOCATION. GOOD NEWS IS THAT WITH THE FLOW...STORMS WILL AT LEAST MOVE ALONG. SO...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES...BUT IN COMING DAYS...AREA COULD BECOME PRIMED FOR ISSUES. THE WARM AND HUMID PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES ONCE AGAIN. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... UPPER LEVEL HIGH HOLDS FIRM OVER THE SERN STATES THIS PERIOD...WHILE UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGHS TRAVERSE THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND NERN STATES ALONG THE BOTTOM OF THE WESTERLIES ON THE N SIDE OF THE HIGH. THIS PLACES THE FCST AREA IN A MOISTURE GRADIENT WITH PW VALUES CLOSE TO TWO INCHES ACROSS THE N VS 1 TO 1.5 INCHES TO THE S...IN THE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER HIGH. THE UPPER HIGH BULGES A BIT NWD MON NT BETWEEN S/W/S. TOGETHER WITH THE DIURNAL MIN...MOST OF THE NT LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET. ONE S/W TROUGH CROSSES TUE...ARRIVING EARLY SO THIS DAY LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE...WITH THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE N. THE BOTTOM OF THE WESTERLIES FLATTENS OUT TUE NT IN THE WAKE OF THE S/W SO THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS CARRIED THROUGHOUT THE NT. THE HIGH DOES BULGE A BIT N ON WED IN THE RELATIVE ABSENCE OF S/W/S...AND PW VALUES LOWER TO 1.5 OR LESS EVEN ACROSS PARTS OF THE N. SO CARRIED A GENERIC CHANCE FOR CONVECTION BASED MAINLY ON DIURNAL HEATING IN THE WARM AND STILL SOMEWHAT HUMID AIR ON THE MOVE...ALONG WITH CONTINUITY AND COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORS. TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO MET/SREF/PREVIOUS WITH THE MAV LOOKING A BIT TOO LOW. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... WE HAVE LOST THE GFS SOLUTION SHOWING A BREAK IN THE WEATHER FRI INTO SAT. WHILE A LARGE NRN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL CROSSES ERN CANADA THU INTO THU NT...IT DOES NOT DIG AS FAR S AS PREVIOUSLY PROGGED...AND THE COLD FRONT AND CANADIAN HIGH DO NOT GET AS FAR S EITHER...SO THE FCST AREA STAYS IN THE SOUP. IT DOES STILL SHOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE DEEP S LIFTING OUT AND REACHING THE FCST AREA THU...SO THIS STILL LOOKS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY. STILL TRIED TO STAY AWAY FROM WPC CAT POPS. BUT HAVE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY. THE ECMWF HOLDS THAT S/W TROUGH BACK UNTIL FRI NT/SAT. OTHERWISE THE MODELS BASICALLY SHOW A CONTINUATION OF THE GENERAL PATTERN. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH SLOWLY EASES OFF THE SE COAST...WHICH ALLOWS THE BOTTOM OF THE WESTERLIES TO SAG A BIT FARTHER SWD...INTO THE FCST AREA...NEXT WEEKEND. LITTLE CHANGES NEED TO TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE MOSTLY A BLEND OF PREVIOUS...WPC AND THE MEX. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. A DISTURBANCE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV EARLY THIS MORNING. AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF CONVECTION...EXACT TIMING IS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS. .AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. TIMING AND INTENSITY OF MORNING FOG WILL DEPENDS OF LOCATIONS THAT GET RAIN. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FB/TRM/SL NEAR TERM...FB/SL SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...JSH/TRM AVIATION...RPY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1156 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015 .AVIATION... CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG. FOR THE 6Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY AFFECT ALL SITES AFTER ABOUT 9Z. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE AS WELL. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY MONDAY. STORMS WILL BE HIT AND MISS... BUT ANY SITE AFFECTED BY A STORM CELL WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015/ DISCUSSION... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST THAT SOME ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE TO FESTER OVERNIGHT AS A DEEP TROPICAL AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE BUT WILL LOWER POPS SOME AS COVERAGE SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 30 PERCENT OR SO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS BUT THE MAIN STORY THIS WEEK WILL BE THE TROPICAL SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH NORTHWEST THROUGH THE GULF. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TRACK NEAR OR OVER OUR FORECAST AREA AROUND MIDWEEK WITH A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY AND POTENTIALLY FLOODING RAINFALL NEAR ITS TRACK. UPDATE ON THE WAY. && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ AVIATION...06
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
805 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN PARKED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS WEEK. PENNSYLVANIA WILL REMAIN IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER RIDGE WITH A SURFACE FRONT OSCILLATING OVER THE STATE. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR SUPPORT CATEGORICAL POPS DECREASING TO LIKELIES EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE NORTH. EARLY MORNING STABILITY WILL GIVE WAY TO DIURNALLY- DRIVEN CONVECTION BY AFTN ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AXIS OF HIGHEST GEFS PWAT ANOMALIES INDICATE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR RING OF FIRE CONVECTION. HAVE KEPT POPS BTWN 60-65 PCT ACROSS THIS AREA WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS OVR THE N TIER. DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD YIELD AFTN CAPES OF ARND 2000 J/KG BASED ON 00Z GEFS...WHICH COULD SUPPORT ISOLD SVR WX. KINEMATIC PROFILE LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE WITH ONLY MODERATE MID LVL WESTERLY FLOW OF ARND 30KTS AND 0-6KM SHEAR CLOSE TO 20KTS. GIVEN PWATS CLOSE TO 2 INCHES...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL FROM ANY PM TSRA. CONVECTION-ALLOWING MDLS DO NOT INDICATE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMTS TODAY...SO WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHC OF FLASH FLOODING IN HWO FOR NOW. OVERCAST SKIES SHOULD GIVE WAY TO BREAKS OF SUN LATER TODAY...HELPING TO PUSH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... NEXT SHORTWAVE PASSING THRU THE GRT LKS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THRU CENTRAL PA ON TUESDAY...BRINGING OUR NEXT ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA. MDL TIMING OF LL JET SUGGESTS THE BEST CHC OF RAIN WILL COME TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHWEST PA AND TUES AM ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES. GEFS 850MB MFLUX VALUES ANOMALIES ON THE ORDER OF 4-5SD ABV CLIMO SLIDE SE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THRU MIDDAY TUES. GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE AND LG SCALE FORCING PRESENT...SURPRISED AT THE RELATIVELY LOW ENSEMBLE MEAN QPF VALUES OF ONLY ARND 0.25 INCHES TONIGHT/TUESDAY. CURRENTLY CARRYING LIKELY POPS IN THE 60-70 PCT RANGE...BUT THAT MAY BE TOO CONSERVATIVE. SPC CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTING THE ENTIRE AREA FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR WX TUESDAY ASSOC WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH HEATING/DESTABILIZATION DUE TO CLOUD COVER PRECIP. LATEST GEFS INDICATES VERY LIMITED CAPE TUESDAY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... ALL MDL DATA INDICATING A PUSH OF DRIER AIR BEHIND COLD FRONT SHOULD ENSURE A DRY TUES NIGHT AND WED AM. HOWEVER...UNSETTLED WX APPEARS LIKELY TO RETURN LATE THIS WEEK AS QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. 00Z GEFS AND OPER MED RANGE MDLS CONTINUE TO SHOW A PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THRU LATE THIS WEEK. CENTRAL PA SHOULD REMAIN BENEATH RING OF FIRE ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM WITH FREQUENT SHRA/TSRA LATE WED-SUN. A FAIR AMT OF MDL CONSENSUS WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF SHORTWAVES...INDICATING THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SHRA/TSRA WED NITE/EARLY THU AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY. AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN THIS PATTERN...AS WELL AS ABOVE NORMAL MIN TEMPS BASED ON ABOVE NORMAL PW. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AFTER AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON/EVENING...CONDITIONS SETTLING DOWN A BIT OVERNIGHT. MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN FOCUSED SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KDUJ-KUNV-KLNS...WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS THAT WILL BRING LOCALIZED RESTRICTIONS. CONDITIONS OVERALL WILL SLIP BACK TO IFR IN THE NORTHERN MTNS...WITH MVFR BECOMING LIKELY FOR THE CENTRAL MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS. BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSS IN THE SE TOWARD SUNRISE. SHOWERS CONTINUING TO DECLINE OVER SOUTHERN MTNS AT 12Z AS A LULL IN ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. CIG RESTRICTIONS IN ALL BUT THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WILL IMPROVE TO VFR OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...INITIALLY IN THE CENTRAL MTNS AND A BIT LATER IN THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS/NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. CONVECTION REDEVELOPS BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED TSRA NORTH TO NUMEROUS TSRA SOUTH...WITH ROVING RESTRICTIONS. ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SVR WX WITH MID LVL WESTERLY FLOW AROUND 30KTS. TORRENTIAL RAINS ALSO LIKELY IN ANY TSTMS. TONIGHT...DIURNALLY DRIVEN TSTMS WILL FADE BY 00-02Z. THEN AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE NW...MOST LIKELY AREA FOR CONVECTION LATER TONIGHT SHIFTS BACK TO THE NW PORTION OF CWA /AND MAY EXTEND INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS ON NOSE OF A LL JET/...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSS PRETTY MUCH ANYWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL PA IN MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS. CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS RETURN AS WELL WITH MANY AREAS SLIPPING BACK TO MVFR OVERNIGHT. OUTLOOK... TUE...COLD FRONT. REDUCTIONS LIKELY IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG. OTHERWISE VFR SE...MVFR NW. WED...PRIMARILY VFR. THU-FRI...CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/MARTIN AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
800 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN PARKED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS WEEK. PENNSYLVANIA WILL REMAIN IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER RIDGE WITH A SURFACE FRONT OSCILLATING OVER THE STATE. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR SUPPORT CATEGORICAL POPS DECREASING TO LIKELIES EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE NORTH. EARLY MORNING STABILITY WILL GIVE WAY TO DIURNALLY- DRIVEN CONVECTION BY AFTN ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AXIS OF HIGHEST GEFS PWAT ANOMALIES INDICATE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR RING OF FIRE CONVECTION. HAVE KEPT POPS BTWN 60-65 PCT ACROSS THIS AREA WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS OVR THE N TIER. DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD YIELD AFTN CAPES OF ARND 2000 J/KG BASED ON 00Z GEFS...WHICH COULD SUPPORT ISOLD SVR WX. KINEMATIC PROFILE LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE WITH ONLY MODERATE MID LVL WESTERLY FLOW OF ARND 30KTS AND 0-6KM SHEAR CLOSE TO 20KTS. GIVEN PWATS CLOSE TO 2 INCHES...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL FROM ANY PM TSRA. CONVECTION-ALLOWING MDLS DO NOT INDICATE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMTS TODAY...SO WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHC OF FLASH FLOODING IN HWO FOR NOW. OVERCAST SKIES SHOULD GIVE WAY TO BREAKS OF SUN LATER TODAY...HELPING TO PUSH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... NEXT SHORTWAVE PASSING THRU THE GRT LKS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THRU CENTRAL PA ON TUESDAY...BRINGING OUR NEXT ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA. MDL TIMING OF LL JET SUGGESTS THE BEST CHC OF RAIN WILL COME TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHWEST PA AND TUES AM ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES. GEFS 850MB MFLUX VALUES ANOMALIES ON THE ORDER OF 4-5SD ABV CLIMO SLIDE SE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THRU MIDDAY TUES. GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE AND LG SCALE FORCING PRESENT...SURPRISED AT THE RELATIVELY LOW ENSEMBLE MEAN QPF VALUES OF ONLY ARND 0.25 INCHES TONIGHT/TUESDAY. CURRENTLY CARRYING LIKELY POPS IN THE 60-70 PCT RANGE...BUT THAT MAY BE TOO CONSERVATIVE. SPC CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTING THE ENTIRE AREA FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR WX TUESDAY ASSOC WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH HEATING/DESTABILIZATION DUE TO CLOUD COVER PRECIP. LATEST GEFS INDICATES VERY LIMITED CAPE TUESDAY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... ALL MDL DATA INDICATING A PUSH OF DRIER AIR BEHIND COLD FRONT SHOULD ENSURE A DRY TUES NIGHT AND WED AM. HOWEVER...UNSETTLED WX APPEARS LIKELY TO RETURN LATE THIS WEEK AS QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. 00Z GEFS AND OPER MED RANGE MDLS CONTINUE TO SHOW A PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THRU LATE THIS WEEK. CENTRAL PA SHOULD REMAIN BENEATH RING OF FIRE ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM WITH FREQUENT SHRA/TSRA LATE WED-SUN. A FAIR AMT OF MDL CONSENSUS WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF SHORTWAVES...INDICATING THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SHRA/TSRA WED NITE/EARLY THU AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY. AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN THIS PATTERN...AS WELL AS ABOVE NORMAL MIN TEMPS BASED ON ABOVE NORMAL PW. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AFTER AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON/EVENING...CONDITIONS SETTLING DOWN A BIT OVERNIGHT. MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN FOCUSED SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KDUJ-KUNV-KLNS...WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS THAT WILL BRING LOCALIZED RESTRICTIONS. CONDITIONS OVERALL WILL SLIP BACK TO IFR IN THE NORTHERN MTNS...WITH MVFR BECOMING LIKELY FOR THE CENTRAL MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS. BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSS IN THE SE TOWARD SUNRISE. EXPECT RESTRICTIONS TO END BY MID MORNING MONDAY. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE CONVECTION THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...BUT SCATTERED TSRA NORTH TO NUMEROUS TSRA SOUTH FIRE UP AGAIN FOR MID/LATE AFTERNOON...WITH ROVING RESTRICTIONS. ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SVR WX WITH MID LVL WESTERLY FLOW AROUND 30KTS. AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE NW...MOST LIKELY AREA FOR CONVECTION MON NIGHT SHIFTS BACK TO THE NW PORTION OF CWA /AND MAY EXTEND INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS ON NOSE OF A LL JET/...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSS PRETTY MUCH ANYWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL PA IN MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS. OUTLOOK... TUE...COLD FRONT. REDUCTIONS LIKELY IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG. OTHERWISE VFR SE...MVFR NW. WED...PRIMARILY VFR. THU-FRI...CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/MARTIN AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
633 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN PARKED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS WEEK. PENNSYLVANIA WILL REMAIN IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER RIDGE WITH A SURFACE FRONT OSCILLATING OVER THE STATE. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... EARLY AM WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS SHORTWAVE TRACKING NORTH OF PA INTO NEW ENG. ASSOC LL JET AND PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS IS SETTLING ACROSS SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...ACCOMPANIED BY NUMEROUS SHRA AND A FEW LINGERING TSRA. RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR SUPPORT CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING AND SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE NORTH. 09Z SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES ATMOS HAS STABILIZED...ENDING THE THREAT OF INTENSE CONVECTION AND EXCESSIVE RAIN RATES. HAVE THEREFORE CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS SHOWERS WILL DWINDLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATE THIS MORNING...DUE WANING LG SCALE FORCING IN WAKE OF DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...CENTRAL PA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE GUN FOR DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION BY AFTN ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AXIS OF HIGHEST GEFS PWAT ANOMALIES INDICATE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR RING OF FIRE CONVECTION. HAVE KEPT POPS BTWN 60-65 PCT ACROSS THIS AREA WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS OVR THE N TIER. DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD YIELD AFTN CAPES OF ARND 2000 J/KG BASED ON 00Z GEFS...WHICH COULD SUPPORT ISOLD SVR WX. KINEMATIC PROFILE LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE WITH ONLY MODERATE MID LVL WESTERLY FLOW OF ARND 30KTS AND 0-6KM SHEAR CLOSE TO 20KTS. GIVEN PWATS CLOSE TO 2 INCHES...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL FROM ANY PM TSRA. CONVECTION-ALLOWING MDLS DO NOT INDICATE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMTS TODAY...SO WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHC OF FLASH FLOODING IN HWO FOR NOW. OVERCAST SKIES SHOULD GIVE WAY TO BREAKS OF SUN LATER TODAY...HELPING TO PUSH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... NEXT SHORTWAVE PASSING THRU THE GRT LKS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THRU CENTRAL PA ON TUESDAY...BRINGING OUR NEXT ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA. MDL TIMING OF LL JET SUGGESTS THE BEST CHC OF RAIN WILL COME TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHWEST PA AND TUES AM ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES. GEFS 850MB MFLUX VALUES ANOMALIES ON THE ORDER OF 4-5SD ABV CLIMO SLIDE SE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THRU MIDDAY TUES. GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE AND LG SCALE FORCING PRESENT...SURPRISED AT THE RELATIVELY LOW ENSEMBLE MEAN QPF VALUES OF ONLY ARND 0.25 INCHES TONIGHT/TUESDAY. CURRENTLY CARRYING LIKELY POPS IN THE 60-70 PCT RANGE...BUT THAT MAY BE TOO CONSERVATIVE. SPC CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTING THE ENTIRE AREA FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR WX TUESDAY ASSOC WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH HEATING/DESTABILIZATION DUE TO CLOUD COVER PRECIP. LATEST GEFS INDICATES VERY LIMITED CAPE TUESDAY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... ALL MDL DATA INDICATING A PUSH OF DRIER AIR BEHIND COLD FRONT SHOULD ENSURE A DRY TUES NIGHT AND WED AM. HOWEVER...UNSETTLED WX APPEARS LIKELY TO RETURN LATE THIS WEEK AS QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. 00Z GEFS AND OPER MED RANGE MDLS CONTINUE TO SHOW A PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THRU LATE THIS WEEK. CENTRAL PA SHOULD REMAIN BENEATH RING OF FIRE ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM WITH FREQUENT SHRA/TSRA LATE WED-SUN. A FAIR AMT OF MDL CONSENSUS WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF SHORTWAVES...INDICATING THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SHRA/TSRA WED NITE/EARLY THU AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY. AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN THIS PATTERN...AS WELL AS ABOVE NORMAL MIN TEMPS BASED ON ABOVE NORMAL PW. && .AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AFTER AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON/EVENING...CONDITIONS SETTLING DOWN A BIT OVERNIGHT. MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN FOCUSED SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KDUJ-KUNV-KLNS...WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS THAT WILL BRING LOCALIZED RESTRICTIONS. CONDITIONS OVERALL WILL SLIP BACK TO IFR IN THE NORTHERN MTNS...WITH MVFR BECOMING LIKELY FOR THE CENTRAL MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS. BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSS IN THE SE TOWARD SUNRISE. EXPECT RESTRICTIONS TO END BY MID MORNING MONDAY. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE CONVECTION THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...BUT SCATTERED TSRA NORTH TO NUMEROUS TSRA SOUTH FIRE UP AGAIN FOR MID/LATE AFTERNOON...WITH ROVING RESTRICTIONS. ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SVR WX WITH MID LVL WESTERLY FLOW AROUND 30KTS. AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE NW...MOST LIKELY AREA FOR CONVECTION MON NIGHT SHIFTS BACK TO THE NW PORTION OF CWA /AND MAY EXTEND INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS ON NOSE OF A LL JET/...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSS PRETTY MUCH ANYWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL PA IN MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS. OUTLOOK... TUE...COLD FRONT. REDUCTIONS LIKELY IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG. OTHERWISE VFR SE...MVFR NW. WED...PRIMARILY VFR. THU-FRI...CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/MARTIN AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
358 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN PARKED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS WEEK. PENNSYLVANIA WILL REMAIN IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER RIDGE WITH A SURFACE FRONT OSCILLATING OVER THE STATE...PRODUCING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE FOR WED...BUT ADDITIONAL SHOWERY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN BY THU. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PREVAIL AGAIN FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... WATER VAPOR LOOP AT 06Z SHOWS SHORTWAVE TRACKING NORTH OF LK ONTARIO. ASSOC LL JET AND PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS IS SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS MORNING...ACCOMPANIED BY NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA. RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR SUPPORT CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING AND CHC ACROSS THE NORTH. FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS UP THRU 10Z ACROSS THE N MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS. HOWEVER...THE REAL THREAT REMAINS FROM CAMBRIA CO SOUTHWARD...WHERE ENOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS TO SUPPORT CONVECTION AND EXCESSIVE RAIN RATES. RAP WARM CLOUD DEPTH REMAINS NR 4KM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...INDICATIVE OF A TROPICAL AIR MASS AND HIGH RAIN RATE POTENTIAL. THE ENTIRE REGION REMAINS SOUTH OF QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EARLY THIS AM WITH HIGH HUMIDITY...WHICH WILL HOLD TEMPS FROM FALLING ANY LOWER THAN ARND 70F. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... CENTRAL PA WILL REMAIN ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MONDAY. AXIS OF HIGHEST GEFS PWAT ANOMALIES INDICATE SOUTHERN PA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR RING OF FIRE CONVECTION. HAVE KEPT POPS BTWN 60-65 PCT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WHERE PM TSRA ARE LIKELY. AIR MASS WILL BE WARM AND UNSTABLE AGAIN...BUT MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SVR WX WITH MID LVL WESTERLY FLOW OF ARND 30KTS. MODERATE CAPES WILL BE CREATED BY AFTN BRINGING SLIGHT RISK OF SVR STORMS FROM SPC. BREAKS OF SUN SHOULD HELP PUSH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... DID NOT CHANGE A LOT. MAIN THING WAS TO EDGE TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES HERE AND THERE. TENDENCY FOR EC TO SHOW LESS HEIGHT FALLS EACH DAY. SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AGAIN LATE MONNDAY...AS FRONT TILTS BACK TO THE NW FROM LOW DROPPING SE ACROSS NE PA LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUE. SOME MORE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE STORMS ON TUE...AS FRONT MOVES SE. HARD TO FOLLOW GFS POPS FOR MDT LATE TUE. FRONT MOVING INTO THAT AREA JUST AFTER PEAK HEATING. THUS WENT HIGHER ON POPS THAN GUIDANCE ACROSS THE SE. STILL ENOUGH PUSH TO GET SOME DRY WEATHER INTO THE AREA LATER TUE NIGHT INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF WED. NAM SHOWS A CRAZY DAY ON THU...WITH WARM ADVECTION...SHEAR AND CAPE. THUS WENT RATHER HIGH WITH POPS. AGAIN...AS NOTED ABOVE...DID UP TEMPS SOME. SOME BREAK POSSIBLE LATER FRIDAY INTO SUN...AS MODELS HINT THAT FRONT COULD DROPS SOUTH OF PA. EC NOT SHOWING A LOT OF HEIGHT FALLS...SO HAVE LOW CHC POPS IN FOR SOME OF THE TIME. REALLY NOT SEEING MUCH CHANGE IN THE PATTERN ANYTIME SOON. VERY FAST WEST TO EAST FLOW WILL KEEP ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS A LARGE CHUCK OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH DAY 10. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AFTER AN ACTIVE AFTENOON/EVENING...CONDITIONS SETTLING DOWN A BIT OVERNIGHT. MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN FOCUSED SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KDUJ-KUNV-KLNS...WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS THAT WILL BRING LOCALIZED RESTRICTIONS. CONDITIONS OVERALL WILL SLIP BACK TO IFR IN THE NORTHERN MTNS...WITH MVFR BECOMING LIKELY FOR THE CENTRAL MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS. BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSS IN THE SE TOWARD SUNRISE. EXPECT RESTRICTIONS TO END BY MID MORNING MONDAY. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE CONVECTION THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...BUT SCATTERED TSRA NORTH TO NUMEROUS TSRA SOUTH FIRE UP AGAIN FOR MID/LATE AFTERNOON...WITH ROVING RESTRICTIONS. ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SVR WX WITH MID LVL WESTERLY FLOW AROUND 30KTS. AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE NW...MOST LIKELY AREA FOR CONVECTION MON NIGHT SHIFTS BACK TO THE NW PORTION OF CWA /AND MAY EXTEND INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS ON NOSE OF A LL JET/...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSS PRETTY MUCH ANYWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL PA IN MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS. OUTLOOK... TUE...COLD FRONT. REDUCTIONS LIKELY IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG. OTHERWISE VFR SE...MVFR NW. WED...PRIMARILY VFR. THU-FRI...CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033-037-041-042-046. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WATSON/DEVOIR/MARTIN NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD LONG TERM...MARTIN AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
233 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN PARKED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS WEEK. PENNSYLVANIA WILL REMAIN IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER RIDGE WITH A SURFACE FRONT OSCILLATING OVER THE STATE...PRODUCING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE FOR WED...BUT ADDITIONAL SHOWERY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN BY THU. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PREVAIL AGAIN FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... WATER VAPOR LOOP AT 06Z SHOWS SHORTWAVE TRACKING NORTH OF LK ONTARIO. ASSOC LL JET AND PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS IS SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS MORNING...ACCOMPANIED BY NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA. RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR SUPPORT CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING AND CHC ACROSS THE NORTH. FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS UP THRU 10Z ACROSS THE N MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS. HOWEVER...THE REAL THREAT REMAINS FROM CAMBRIA CO SOUTHWARD...WHERE ENOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS TO SUPPORT CONVECTION AND EXCESSIVE RAIN RATES. RAP WARM CLOUD DEPTH REMAINS NR 4KM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...INDICATIVE OF A TROPICAL AIR MASS AND HIGH RAIN RATE POTENTIAL. THE ENTIRE REGION REMAINS SOUTH OF QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EARLY THIS AM WITH HIGH HUMIDITY...WHICH WILL HOLD TEMPS FROM FALLING ANY LOWER THAN ARND 70F. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... CENTRAL PA WILL REMAIN ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MONDAY. AXIS OF HIGHEST GEFS PWAT ANOMALIES INDICATE SOUTHERN PA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR RING OF FIRE CONVECTION. HAVE KEPT POPS BTWN 60-65 PCT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WHERE PM TSRA ARE LIKELY. AIR MASS WILL BE WARM AND UNSTABLE AGAIN...BUT MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SVR WX WITH MID LVL WESTERLY FLOW OF ARND 30KTS. MODERATE CAPES WILL BE CREATED BY AFTN BRINGING SLIGHT RISK OF SVR STORMS FROM SPC. BREAKS OF SUN SHOULD HELP PUSH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... DID NOT CHANGE A LOT. MAIN THING WAS TO EDGE TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES HERE AND THERE. TENDENCY FOR EC TO SHOW LESS HEIGHT FALLS EACH DAY. SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AGAIN LATE MONNDAY...AS FRONT TILTS BACK TO THE NW FROM LOW DROPPING SE ACROSS NE PA LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUE. SOME MORE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE STORMS ON TUE...AS FRONT MOVES SE. HARD TO FOLLOW GFS POPS FOR MDT LATE TUE. FRONT MOVING INTO THAT AREA JUST AFTER PEAK HEATING. THUS WENT HIGHER ON POPS THAN GUIDANCE ACROSS THE SE. STILL ENOUGH PUSH TO GET SOME DRY WEATHER INTO THE AREA LATER TUE NIGHT INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF WED. NAM SHOWS A CRAZY DAY ON THU...WITH WARM ADVECTION...SHEAR AND CAPE. THUS WENT RATHER HIGH WITH POPS. AGAIN...AS NOTED ABOVE...DID UP TEMPS SOME. SOME BREAK POSSIBLE LATER FRIDAY INTO SUN...AS MODELS HINT THAT FRONT COULD DROPS SOUTH OF PA. EC NOT SHOWING A LOT OF HEIGHT FALLS...SO HAVE LOW CHC POPS IN FOR SOME OF THE TIME. REALLY NOT SEEING MUCH CHANGE IN THE PATTERN ANYTIME SOON. VERY FAST WEST TO EAST FLOW WILL KEEP ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS A LARGE CHUCK OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH DAY 10. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SE PA AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL PA. OTHERWISE...JUST SOME SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH LOW CIGS AND FOG. EXPECT FOG AND LOW CIGS TO BURN OFF BY MID MORNING ON MONDAY. WENT WITH A DRY FCST FOR MONDAY AFT. EXPECT WINDS TO BE NW...AND ACTION SHOULD BE MAINLY EAST OF OUR AREA. MAIN CONCERN FOR STORMS ON MONDAY WOULD BE NE OF IPT...NEAR LOW FCST TO DROP SE FROM NY STATE. NEXT ROUND OF WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WILL BE LIKELY ON TUE...AS COLD FRONT MOVES SE. BEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON WED. MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED ON THU...AS FRONT MOVES BACK AS A WARM FRONT. OUTLOOK... TUE...REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED FOR BULK OF THE DAY. THU-FRI...CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033-037-041-042-046. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WATSON/DEVOIR/MARTIN NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD LONG TERM...MARTIN AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
106 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 NOT EXACTLY A CLEARCUT NEAR TERM FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A COUPLE DIFFERENT FORCING MECHANISMS AT WORK TO BRING SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE AREA. MAIN PLAYER THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE A SLOW MOVING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...LOCATED OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS IS CLEARLY SEEN IN BROAD-SCALE PRECIP MOTION ON REGIONAL RADAR LOOP...WITH CELLS IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA DROPPING SOUTH...WHILE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO IOWA LIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST. LATEST MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN THIS TROUGH KEEPING PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING...POSSIBLY LONGER THOUGH GENERAL CONSENSUS DOES SHIFT PRECIP SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA BY 18Z. SECONDARY PLAYER APPEARS TO BE SUBTLE ELEVATED WAVE/BOUNDARY AROUND 850-800MB...WHICH HAS SPARKED INCREASING DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR CWA OVER THE PAST HOUR. THIS ACTIVITY ALIGNS FAIRLY WELL WITH AREA OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK WIND SHIFT SEEN IN BOTH THE RAP AND 06Z NAM. BOTH MODELS ALSO SHOWING DECENT CONSENSUS IN WEAKENING THIS FEATURE AS IT SHIFTS INTO NORTHWEST IOWA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...THOUGH THE RAP IS A BIT FASTER TO LOSE THE FORCING THAN THE NAM. IN EITHER CASE...EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE A SLOW SHIFT EAST...AND WILL CONFINE POPS TO AREAS EAST OF KYKN-KFSD-KMML BY 12Z...WITH PRECIP CHANCES TAILING OFF FAIRLY RAPIDLY 12Z-15Z IN AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 60 AS THE ELEVATED BOUNDARY WASHES OUT. WITH THE INCREASED PRECIP CHANCE/GREATER CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TODAY...HAVE SLOWED THE RISE IN TEMPERATURES...THOUGH STILL ANTICIPATE SOME SUNSHINE AND POTENTIAL FOR WARMING INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S BY LATE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT WILL BRING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA. EXPECT MOST AREAS WILL SEE DECENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING THIS AFTERNOON TO SUFFICIENTLY LOWER DEW POINTS AND MINIMIZE FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THIS IN FAR SOUTHERN AREAS THOUGH...WHERE MIXING WILL BE MORE LIMITED DUE TO THE LINGERING CLOUDS. WITH THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN...EXPECT MOST AREAS TO SEE LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S TONIGHT. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING ONE IN A SERIES OF WAVES MODELS DEPICT IN A DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW FOR THE WEEK. APPROACH OF THIS WAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FAIRLY SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AND A THERMAL PATTERN THAT WILL FAVOR THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR PRECIPITATION THREAT. THIS WILL BE REFLECTED IN POPS WHICH WILL MAXIMIZE TUESDAY NIGHT..WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY SPREADING OVER THE AREA AT THAT TIME. WITH A BIT OF A MISMATCH OF PARAMETERS...THE BEST INSTABILITY MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTH WHILE THERMAL SUPPORT AND WINDS ARE MORE FAVORABLE WEST AND NORTH...SPC DAY 2 SEVERE RISK...MOSTLY MARGINAL IN OUR AREA...IS ACCEPTED FOR NOW. ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN WEDNESDAY THOUGH NOT AS FAST AS THE NAM SUGGESTS GIVEN THAT IT SEEMS A LONER ON THE STRENGTH AND SPEED OF ITS DRY SURGE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH A MODEST 75 TO 80 RANGE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD SEE A LITTLE WARMING WITH ANOTHER THREAT OF STORMS AS ANOTHER HARD TO TIME WAVE REACHES THE AREA. THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE BACK TO A LITTLE MORE MODEST WARMTH AND ANOTHER THREAT OF CONVECTION. THE WAVE SHOWN BY MODELS IS STRONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS WEAK SYSTEMS ESPECIALLY ON THE NEW EC...HOWEVER TIMING WILL AGAIN BE DIFFICULT THAT FAR AHEAD. THE GFS AND EC ARE DIFFERENT ON STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM BUT CLOSE ON TIMING...AND IF THEY ARE RIGHT A DRY COUPLE OF DAYS SHOULD FOLLOW THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME MVFR CEILINGS IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA THROUGH ABOUT 21Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER AFTER 15Z TOMORROW. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JH LONG TERM... AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
654 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 NOT EXACTLY A CLEARCUT NEAR TERM FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A COUPLE DIFFERENT FORCING MECHANISMS AT WORK TO BRING SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE AREA. MAIN PLAYER THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE A SLOW MOVING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...LOCATED OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS IS CLEARLY SEEN IN BROAD-SCALE PRECIP MOTION ON REGIONAL RADAR LOOP...WITH CELLS IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA DROPPING SOUTH...WHILE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO IOWA LIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST. LATEST MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN THIS TROUGH KEEPING PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING...POSSIBLY LONGER THOUGH GENERAL CONSENSUS DOES SHIFT PRECIP SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA BY 18Z. SECONDARY PLAYER APPEARS TO BE SUBTLE ELEVATED WAVE/BOUNDARY AROUND 850-800MB...WHICH HAS SPARKED INCREASING DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR CWA OVER THE PAST HOUR. THIS ACTIVITY ALIGNS FAIRLY WELL WITH AREA OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK WIND SHIFT SEEN IN BOTH THE RAP AND 06Z NAM. BOTH MODELS ALSO SHOWING DECENT CONSENSUS IN WEAKENING THIS FEATURE AS IT SHIFTS INTO NORTHWEST IOWA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...THOUGH THE RAP IS A BIT FASTER TO LOSE THE FORCING THAN THE NAM. IN EITHER CASE...EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE A SLOW SHIFT EAST...AND WILL CONFINE POPS TO AREAS EAST OF KYKN-KFSD-KMML BY 12Z...WITH PRECIP CHANCES TAILING OFF FAIRLY RAPIDLY 12Z-15Z IN AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 60 AS THE ELEVATED BOUNDARY WASHES OUT. WITH THE INCREASED PRECIP CHANCE/GREATER CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TODAY...HAVE SLOWED THE RISE IN TEMPERATURES...THOUGH STILL ANTICIPATE SOME SUNSHINE AND POTENTIAL FOR WARMING INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S BY LATE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT WILL BRING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA. EXPECT MOST AREAS WILL SEE DECENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING THIS AFTERNOON TO SUFFICIENTLY LOWER DEW POINTS AND MINIMIZE FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THIS IN FAR SOUTHERN AREAS THOUGH...WHERE MIXING WILL BE MORE LIMITED DUE TO THE LINGERING CLOUDS. WITH THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN...EXPECT MOST AREAS TO SEE LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S TONIGHT. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING ONE IN A SERIES OF WAVES MODELS DEPICT IN A DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW FOR THE WEEK. APPROACH OF THIS WAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FAIRLY SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AND A THERMAL PATTERN THAT WILL FAVOR THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR PRECIPITATION THREAT. THIS WILL BE REFLECTED IN POPS WHICH WILL MAXIMIZE TUESDAY NIGHT..WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY SPREADING OVER THE AREA AT THAT TIME. WITH A BIT OF A MISMATCH OF PARAMETERS...THE BEST INSTABILITY MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTH WHILE THERMAL SUPPORT AND WINDS ARE MORE FAVORABLE WEST AND NORTH...SPC DAY 2 SEVERE RISK...MOSTLY MARGINAL IN OUR AREA...IS ACCEPTED FOR NOW. ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN WEDNESDAY THOUGH NOT AS FAST AS THE NAM SUGGESTS GIVEN THAT IT SEEMS A LONER ON THE STRENGTH AND SPEED OF ITS DRY SURGE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH A MODEST 75 TO 80 RANGE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD SEE A LITTLE WARMING WITH ANOTHER THREAT OF STORMS AS ANOTHER HARD TO TIME WAVE REACHES THE AREA. THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE BACK TO A LITTLE MORE MODEST WARMTH AND ANOTHER THREAT OF CONVECTION. THE WAVE SHOWN BY MODELS IS STRONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS WEAK SYSTEMS ESPECIALLY ON THE NEW EC...HOWEVER TIMING WILL AGAIN BE DIFFICULT THAT FAR AHEAD. THE GFS AND EC ARE DIFFERENT ON STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM BUT CLOSE ON TIMING...AND IF THEY ARE RIGHT A DRY COUPLE OF DAYS SHOULD FOLLOW THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN/DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF THUNDER THREAT AT KSUX...OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE AMENDMENT OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. KSUX IS ONLY TAF LOCATION WHICH SHOULD BE AFFECTED BY PRECIPITATION...OR ACCOMPANYING MVFR CEILINGS...WHICH SHOULD LAST UNTIL 17Z-18Z. NORTHWEST OF THE RAIN BAND...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JH LONG TERM... AVIATION...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
405 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 NOT EXACTLY A CLEARCUT NEAR TERM FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A COUPLE DIFFERENT FORCING MECHANISMS AT WORK TO BRING SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE AREA. MAIN PLAYER THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE A SLOW MOVING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...LOCATED OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS IS CLEARLY SEEN IN BROAD-SCALE PRECIP MOTION ON REGIONAL RADAR LOOP...WITH CELLS IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA DROPPING SOUTH...WHILE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO IOWA LIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST. LATEST MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN THIS TROUGH KEEPING PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING...POSSIBLY LONGER THOUGH GENERAL CONSENSUS DOES SHIFT PRECIP SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA BY 18Z. SECONDARY PLAYER APPEARS TO BE SUBTLE ELEVATED WAVE/BOUNDARY AROUND 850-800MB...WHICH HAS SPARKED INCREASING DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR CWA OVER THE PAST HOUR. THIS ACTIVITY ALIGNS FAIRLY WELL WITH AREA OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK WIND SHIFT SEEN IN BOTH THE RAP AND 06Z NAM. BOTH MODELS ALSO SHOWING DECENT CONSENSUS IN WEAKENING THIS FEATURE AS IT SHIFTS INTO NORTHWEST IOWA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...THOUGH THE RAP IS A BIT FASTER TO LOSE THE FORCING THAN THE NAM. IN EITHER CASE...EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE A SLOW SHIFT EAST...AND WILL CONFINE POPS TO AREAS EAST OF KYKN-KFSD-KMML BY 12Z...WITH PRECIP CHANCES TAILING OFF FAIRLY RAPIDLY 12Z-15Z IN AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 60 AS THE ELEVATED BOUNDARY WASHES OUT. WITH THE INCREASED PRECIP CHANCE/GREATER CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TODAY...HAVE SLOWED THE RISE IN TEMPERATURES...THOUGH STILL ANTICIPATE SOME SUNSHINE AND POTENTIAL FOR WARMING INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S BY LATE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT WILL BRING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA. EXPECT MOST AREAS WILL SEE DECENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING THIS AFTERNOON TO SUFFICIENTLY LOWER DEW POINTS AND MINIMIZE FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THIS IN FAR SOUTHERN AREAS THOUGH...WHERE MIXING WILL BE MORE LIMITED DUE TO THE LINGERING CLOUDS. WITH THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN...EXPECT MOST AREAS TO SEE LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S TONIGHT. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING ONE IN A SERIES OF WAVES MODELS DEPICT IN A DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW FOR THE WEEK. APPROACH OF THIS WAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FAIRLY SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AND A THERMAL PATTERN THAT WILL FAVOR THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR PRECIPITATION THREAT. THIS WILL BE REFLECTED IN POPS WHICH WILL MAXIMIZE TUESDAY NIGHT..WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY SPREADING OVER THE AREA AT THAT TIME. WITH A BIT OF A MISMATCH OF PARAMETERS...THE BEST INSTABILITY MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTH WHILE THERMAL SUPPORT AND WINDS ARE MORE FAVORABLE WEST AND NORTH...SPC DAY 2 SEVERE RISK...MOSTLY MARGINAL IN OUR AREA...IS ACCEPTED FOR NOW. ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN WEDNESDAY THOUGH NOT AS FAST AS THE NAM SUGGESTS GIVEN THAT IT SEEMS A LONER ON THE STRENGTH AND SPEED OF ITS DRY SURGE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH A MODEST 75 TO 80 RANGE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD SEE A LITTLE WARMING WITH ANOTHER THREAT OF STORMS AS ANOTHER HARD TO TIME WAVE REACHES THE AREA. THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE BACK TO A LITTLE MORE MODEST WARMTH AND ANOTHER THREAT OF CONVECTION. THE WAVE SHOWN BY MODELS IS STRONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS WEAK SYSTEMS ESPECIALLY ON THE NEW EC...HOWEVER TIMING WILL AGAIN BE DIFFICULT THAT FAR AHEAD. THE GFS AND EC ARE DIFFERENT ON STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM BUT CLOSE ON TIMING...AND IF THEY ARE RIGHT A DRY COUPLE OF DAYS SHOULD FOLLOW THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015 VFR SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT CATEGORY ACROSS KHON...KFSD AND KSUX THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS AT KSUX WHERE INDICATIONS ARE FROM THE LATEST NAM THAT THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS MID MORNING MONDAY. ONE THING TO KEEP AN EYE ON IS THUNDERSTORMS. VERY CONFIDENT THAT KHON IS IN THE CLEAR...AND FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT ACTIVITY WILL NOT OCCUR AROUND KFSD. BUT FURTHER SOUTHEAST IN NORTHWEST IA...THE COLD FRONT HAS NOT PASSED THROUGH YET. THEREFORE AM CONCERNED THAT SOME ISOLATED TSRA COULD BE CLOSE TO KSUX FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. IN ADDITION...THERE IS SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION TRYING TO OOZE NORTHWARD ALONG THE 500MB FLOW BETWEEN KSUX AND KOMA. SO BETWEEN THOSE TWO FACTORS...KSUX IS WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z MONDAY. DUE TO THE SKITTISH NATURE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS...DID NOT INCLUDE A MENTION OF THE TSRA FOR THE FORTH COMING 06Z KSUX TAF YET. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JH LONG TERM... AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
334 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 .DISCUSSION... CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. INTO THE MIDSOUTH. CONDITIONS ARE WARM AND HUMID WITH SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. TEMPS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WITH A LIGHT SOUTH WIND. TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH TODAY. THIS SERVES TO PUSH THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY A LITTLE FURTHER WEST...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS AFTN INTO THE EVENING. A STRONG STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS. MORNING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM SO EXPECT MORE SUNSHINE AREAWIDE TODAY AND TEMPS WILL CLIMB A LITTLE HIGHER THAN SUNDAY. EXPECT MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE BY LATE EVENING. THE GFS DEVELOPS AN MCS OVER SOUTHERN MO AS AN UPPER TROF TRIES TO PUSH EAST INTO THE UPPER RIDGE AND SHEARS APART...AND TRIES TO SAG IT INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE MIDSOUTH OVERNIGHT. OTHER MODELS DO NOT CORROBORATE THIS SO CONFIDENCE IN THAT SCENARIO IS LOW. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE 00Z NAM TRIES TO BRING THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY LOCATED NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO NEAR TULSA OK BY 12Z WEDNESDAY BUT THAT SEEMS MUCH TOO FAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE IT OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS AT THAT TIME. WILL GO WITH A UPPER RIDGE DOMINATED FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND LESSER CHANCES TOWARD NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. HIGHS WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 90S...PERHAPS SOME MID 90S ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE GFS AND THE ECMWF MOVE THE DISTURBANCE OUT OF THE GULF AND ACROSS TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BY 12Z THURSDAY THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED SOMEWHERE ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY...TRACKING ACROSS OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THIS IS A LONG WAY FROM THE MIDSOUTH AND THE UPPER RIDGE IS STILL QUITE STRONG ACROSS THE AREA. BUMPED TEMPS UP TO AROUND 90 AND TRIMMED POPS FOR THURSDAY. BETTER PRECIP CHANCES WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE WESTERLIES AND TRACKS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH THE TROF EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE MID SOUTH. BEST CHANCES WILL PROBABLY BE ACROSS THE NORTH ON FRIDAY BUT THIS IS COMPLETELY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WHICH COULD VARY FROM THE CURRENT SOLUTIONS. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SYSTEM MOVES EAST AND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES OVER THE REGION. EXPECT DECREASING PRECIP CHANCES AND TEMPS BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S. MONDAY...A COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH PERHAPS SOME COOLER TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SJM && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFS SCATTERED SHRA BETWEEN MEM AND JBR WILL LIFT NORTH...LEAVING THE TAF SITES FREE OF RAINFALL OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF THE RESIDUAL MIDLEVEL CLOUDS NEAR THE MEM TRACON... ONLY SCATTERED HIGH CIRRUS PREVAILED AT THE OTHER TAF SITES AT 0430Z. 00Z NAM...GFS LAMP AND HRRR INDICATE LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER... GIVEN WEAK/CALM WINDS AND HIGH DEWPOINTS... SUSPECT THERE IS A REASONABLE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIVE FOG / LOW STRATUS FORMATION AT MKL AND TUP. WITH THE ENCROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE EAST... MONDAY WILL SEE REDUCED RAIN CHANCES AT ALL BUT JBR. VFR AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL THE MONDAY EVENING MEM CARGO ARRIVAL PUSH. PWB && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. MO...NONE. MS...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1140 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015 .UPDATE... UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 950 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015/ UPDATE... AMAZINGLY SIMILAR EVOLUTION OF EVENTS THE PAST FEW DAYS. ANOTHER COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVED NORTH THROUGH THE EVENING WHICH HAS COOLED TEMPERATURES. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND WANE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS EAST AR. TVT PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015/ UPDATE... UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015/ DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UP INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. REGIONAL WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WITH MOST OF THE COVERAGE OCCURRING ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING THEN DIMINISH IN COVERAGE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE MID SOUTH WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. BEST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCATED ALONG WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH PERHAPS LESS COVERAGE EAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY RETROGRADE WEST. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. SHORT/LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE TEXAS GULF COAST SOMEWHERE BETWEEN HOUSTON AND CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS...MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF TEXAS BY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AND THEN SHIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MIDDLE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS BY FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE WRF CONTINUES TO HANDLE THE TROPICAL REMNANTS THE QUICKEST...FOLLOWED BY THE GFS. THE ECMWF IS CURRENTLY THE SLOWER OF THE SOLUTIONS BUT HAVE BLENDED FORECAST SOLUTIONS WITH A PREFERENCE TOWARDS THE ECMWF WHICH TYPICALLY PERFORMS WELL DURING THE SUMMER. HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL MAY BECOME A CONCERN LATE IN THE WEEK DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE TROPICAL REMNANTS BUT WILL LET LATER SHIFTS ASSESS THE POTENTIAL THREAT IN SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS BEFORE ADDING MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK IF NOT SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. CJC && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFS SCATTERED SHRA BETWEEN MEM AND JBR WILL LIFT NORTH...LEAVING THE TAF SITES FREE OF RAINFALL OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF THE RESIDUAL MIDLEVEL CLOUDS NEAR THE MEM TRACON... ONLY SCATTERED HIGH CIRRUS PREVAILED AT THE OTHER TAF SITES AT 0430Z. 00Z NAM...GFS LAMP AND HRRR INDICATE LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER... GIVEN WEAK/CALM WINDS AND HIGH DEWPOINTS... SUSPECT THERE IS A REASONABLE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIVE FOG / LOW STRATUS FORMATION AT MKL AND TUP. WITH THE ENCROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE EAST... MONDAY WILL SEE REDUCED RAIN CHANCES AT ALL BUT JBR. VFR AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL THE MONDAY EVENING MEM CARGO ARRIVAL PUSH. PWB && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. MO...NONE. MS...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
104 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 .AVIATION... /06Z TAF UPDATE/ A LINE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH SHOULD APPROACH DRT IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. THIS LINE SHOULD WEAKEN SOME...BUT WILL STILL EXPECT SOME THUNDER IN THE VCNTY. MOST OF THE HIGH RES MODEL RUNS SHOW WEAKENING OF THE COMPLEX BY 09Z... BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH CLOSELY ON THE PWAT RICH ENVIRONMENT. OTHERWISE THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS SHOULD SEE BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR SKIES WITH SOME LIGHT BRIEF SHOWERS CAUSING MINIMAL IMPACTS TO VSBYS. THE NEXT CHALLENGE IS TO ANTICIPATE CHANGING SKIES AS THE APPROACH OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM BEGINS TO SHIFT WIND DIRECTION AFTER DAYBREAK. WILL ASSUME GOOD MIXING EARLY TODAY AND SHOW SOME VFR SKIES FROM MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE NORTHERLY WIND DIRECTIONS COULD PROLONG VFR SKIES WELL INTO THE EVENING...BUT WITH HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF TX...WILL SHOW A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE LOWERING OF CIGS ALONG I-35 FOR MONDAY EVENING. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 934 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015/ UPDATE... A LINE OF STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE BIG BEND IS PUSHING TO THE EAST THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO COME ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE HRRR/RAP13/TEXAS TECH/NCAR ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS AGREE ON DISSIPATING THE LINE OF STORMS AS IT PUSHES TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. CANT RULE OUT SMALL HAIL WITH STRONGER STORMS. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD RANGE FROM ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH WITH VERY ISOLATED SPOTS UP TO ONE INCH. ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE IN THE FEW HUNDREDTHS TO ONE QUARTER INCH RANGE. BASED ON THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND THE LIMITED RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED FOR THE EASTERN PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT...WE HAVE OPTED TO CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EARLY ISSUED. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN MID MORNING ON MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING AND TUESDAY AS A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE PUSHES TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A GOOD POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR STORM WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES ON THIS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE TEXAS COAST. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND EVEN ON WEDNESDAY. A NEW FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS LIKELY TO BE ISSUED ON MONDAY FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 703 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015/ AVIATION... /00Z TAFS/ VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA SITES THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. CIGS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER OVERNIGHT TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR WITH FEW HOURS OF LIFR MONDAY MORNING FROM DAWN TO 14Z MONDAY. LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO MID MORNING ON MONDAY WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED FOR THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM LATE TONIGHT FOR STORMS TO MOVE FROM THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS INTO VAL VERDE. ADDED A TEMPO GROUP TO COVER THIS FROM 05Z TO 07Z MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 6 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHER GUSTS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015/ SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...AS DISCUSSED IN THE MORNING UPDATE...RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CENTRAL CWA...NEAR SAN ANTONIO IN AN ENHANCED AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE AND DE-STABILIZATION. RICH INFLUX OF HIGH PWAT IS RESULTING IN HIGH RAINFALL RATES...ALONG WITH SOME TRAINING OF STORMS NOW ACROSS BEXAR COUNTY. THE PAST SEVERAL HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN HANDLING THE TRENDS GENERALLY WELL...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA...ALONG AND EAST OF A BURNET TO SAN ANTONIO LINE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WILL ALLOW THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS TO BE SAFE. FARTHER WEST...A FEW MODELS ARE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS COMING OUT OF WEST TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS. HAVE MENTIONED AGAIN SOME HIGHER POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CWA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE MENTIONED AGAIN EAST OF I-35. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE MONDAY. LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)... ALL EYES ON THE GULF OF MEXICO AND POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM... HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT AND FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT... FORECAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM. A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFF THE YUCATAN AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. AS OF SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WAS GIVING THE SYSTEM A 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...AND A RECON FLIGHT WAS ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF STEERING THE SYSTEM NORTHWEST THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO...AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S...TOWARDS TEXAS BY TUESDAY. GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY CLUSTERED AROUND A LANDFALL ALONG THE MID TO UPPER TEXAS COAST. THERE HAS BEEN SOME WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND MEAN WITH THE TRACK. ADDITIONALLY...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM...WITH THE ECMWF NOW SLOWER WITH THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE EASTERN CWA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. ADDITIONAL CHANGES IN THE TRACK/SPEED ARE LIKELY FROM MODELS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNTIL THE SYSTEM CLOSES OFF. FOLLOWING A CONSENSUS APPROACH...WPC/NHC COORDINATION...AND ALLOWING FOR SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR ANY WESTWARD SHIFT...WE ARE SHOWING LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BEGINNING AS EARLY AS TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...AND INTO THE CENTRAL CWA...I-35 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN HILL COUNTRY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY WE ARE FORECASTING 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6+ INCHES ALONG AND EAST OF A GEORGETOWN TO KARNES CITY LINE. GIVEN THE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT HAS FALLEN THE LAST MONTH...AND ESPECIALLY THE LAST 24 HOURS ACROSS THESE AREAS...ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY RESULT IN HIGH IMPACT FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING. ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT SHOULD CONTINUED TO BE STRESSED...ADDITIONAL SHIFTS IN THE TRACK AND ORGANIZATION COULD LIKELY RESULT IN LARGE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WETTER OR DRIER. PLEASE STAY CLOSELY TUNED TO THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. BEYOND WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE DOES LINGER OVER THE CWA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALONG WITH A WEAKNESS ALOFT. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS. POSSIBLE DRYING TAKES PLACE NEXT WEEKEND. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 73 85 73 86 74 / 40 70 70 70 40 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 73 84 73 87 73 / 40 80 70 80 40 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 74 87 73 88 73 / 40 70 70 70 40 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 72 83 71 86 72 / 30 70 60 60 40 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 75 91 75 92 76 / 20 30 30 30 30 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 72 83 72 85 72 / 40 70 70 70 40 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 73 88 73 89 74 / 20 50 50 50 40 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 73 85 73 87 73 / 40 70 70 80 40 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 74 84 74 85 74 / 60 80 80 80 40 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 75 87 75 88 74 / 30 60 60 70 40 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 75 88 74 89 74 / 30 60 60 70 40 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...OAKS SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1234 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 .DISCUSSION...PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. && .AVIATION...SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WL SLOWLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTN HOURS AS DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE AFFECTS PORTIONS OF SOUTH TX TDA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WL OCCUR ACROSS THE VCT AREA. MVFR CEILINGS WL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FOR MOST LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY THROUGH 15Z. AS THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE MIDDLE TX COAST THROUGH THE FCST PD...THE WIND DIRECTION WL GRADUALLY BACK TO A MORE EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS WL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THIS TAF PD. CONVECTION WL TEND TO WANE AROUND SUNSET ESPECIALLY ACROSS ALI AND LRD. HOWEVER CONVECTION WL LKLY BEGIN TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE PD ACROSS CRP AND VCT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 815 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015/ DISCUSSION...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVHD AND THE 00Z CRP SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG INCREASING PWAT/MOISTURE THROUGH MON AS THE DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWEST. THE CHC POPS FCSTD ACROSS THE E CWA AND COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT THEN INCREASING MON...LOOKS REASONABLE. LONG PERIOD SWELLS ARE ALSO FCST TO INCREASE THROUGH MON/TUE...AND THUS THE HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AS WELL. THE RIP CURRENT PRODUCT IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 10 PM CDT...BUT WILL WAIT FOR LATEST FROM NHC BEFORE EXTENDING IT THROUGH MON. OTHER THAN POSSIBLY THE RIP CURRENT PRODUCT...NO OTHER CHANGES TO FCST AT THIS TIME. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015/ DISCUSSION...SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. AVIATION...SOME OF THIS FORECAST WILL DEPEND ON NHC FORECAST OF DISTURBANCE. AS OF THIS WRITING...STILL A DISTURBANCE (80 PERCENT CHANCE OF AT LEAST DEPRESSION). MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS EAST OF SURFACE CIRCULATION...SO WITH THAT IN MIND IF SYSTEM MOVES AS MODEL CONSENSUS HINTS...WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AND IN THE MORNING...THEN WANING IN THE AFTERNOON (THE TAFS FOR 00Z TUESDAY WILL BE QUITE DIFFERENT...MORE SHOWERS AND GUSTS...IF TRACK IS CLOSER TO GFS 18Z...WITH THE OPPOSITE THE CASE IF ECMWF CANADIAN AND SOME OF THE HURRICANE MODELS ARE HINTING). WILL MAINTAIN AS IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...AT LEAST FOR A TIME BEING...WITH VCSH OVERNIGHT FOR EASTERN TERMINALS. THEN...TEMPO SHRA/TSRA FOR MONDAY MAINLY AFTER 14Z (AGAIN EASTERN TERMINALS)...AND VFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK...HAVE DECIDED TO JUST GO WITH VCTS FOR THE AFTERNOON TERMINALS...EXCEPT HAVE A PROB30 AT KVCT AS MOST LIKELY AREA TO RECEIVE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...FOR BREVITY...WILL ONLY GO WITH VICINITY AND NOT WITH TEMPO OR PROB30 AT THIS TIME. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015/ SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS HAS RESULTED IN SCATTERED CONVECTION TODAY ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. COVERAGE HAS DIMINISHED SOME OVER THE LAST HOUR...AND LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR SUGGESTS A LULL IN CONVECTION MAY OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. AS WITH THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS THOUGH...EXPECT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GULF WATERS INTO THE COASTAL COUNTIES ON MONDAY MORNING. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS ON MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WHILE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ATTEMPTS TO SHIFT WWD. THIS WILL KEEP WEAKNESS ALOFT OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FARTHER ON MONDAY AS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NW/NNW ACROSS THE GULF. MODELS PROG PW VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES BY 18Z MONDAY LEADING TO A THREAT OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND HAVE RETAINED A MENTION OF MDT/HVY RAIN IN THE FORECAST. ATTENTION WILL THEN OF COURSE TURN TO THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVING NW/NNW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. PREVIOUS GUIDANCE MAINTAINED A TIGHT CLUSTER WITH REGARDS TO EVENTUAL TRACK...BUT NOW GUIDANCE CONTAINS A LARGER SPREAD ON THE TRACK. REGARDLESS... THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST FOR A TROPICAL SYSTEM TO BE APPROACHING THE MIDDLE/UPPER TEXAS COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AND NHC HAS GIVEN THIS SYSTEM A 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLASH WATCH FOR NOW BUT ONE WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA AS THINGS BECOME A LITTLE MORE CLEAR REGARDING THIS SYSTEM. LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON POTENTIAL ORGANIZATION OF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MAJORITY OF THE TROPICAL MODELS SHOW THE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING NORTHWEST AND REACHING THE TEXAS COAST SOMEWHERE BETWEEN ROCKPORT AND GALVESTON BY TUESDAY MORNING. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO COASTAL PLAINS TUESDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EVEN THOUGH LOW PRESSURE AREA SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY...WEAK TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTH TEXAS TO FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY. WILL SHOW LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD OCCUR OVER CALHOUN AND VICTORIA COUNTIES. MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH ELEVATED SEAS. THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS COULD BE HIGH UNTIL THURSDAY. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS COULD BE OVER THE REGION FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. ADEQUATE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR THURSDAY...SO WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FOR THE AREA. DRIER AIR MOVES INTO SOUTH TEXAS BY FRIDAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AT THIS TIME. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 88 76 89 78 89 / 60 60 60 70 60 VICTORIA 87 74 85 76 87 / 70 60 80 80 80 LAREDO 94 76 96 78 95 / 20 20 30 40 40 ALICE 91 76 90 77 91 / 50 40 60 60 60 ROCKPORT 86 78 87 80 86 / 60 60 80 80 70 COTULLA 92 75 92 76 93 / 20 20 40 40 50 KINGSVILLE 91 76 89 78 90 / 50 50 60 60 60 NAVY CORPUS 86 78 86 80 87 / 60 60 70 70 60 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO. GM...NONE. && $$ MB/80...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1120 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2015 .AVIATION... /06Z TAFS/ Line of showers and thunderstorms extended from Ft. Stockton to Big Spring to just west of Snyder at 4Z (11 PM CDT) will move east around 22 KTS. Latest HRRR models indicates the line to break up as it moves into east in the Western Big Country and Concho Valley, however, it is just encountering an eastward moving old thunderstorm boundary, which may enhance storm development enough to allow the storms to reach San Angelo and Abilene. Have VCTS beginning at 6Z at KSJT and 7Z at KABI and KSOA. Gusty west winds of 30 KTS may precede the line of storms. Otherwise, areas of MVFR stratus to develop over the terminals tonight, becoming VFR 15-16Z. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms expected Monday and Monday night. Will put a VCTS at KABI where the best potential for storms exists. Gusty winds to 35 KTS and brief lowered visibilities to IFR possible near storms Monday. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 701 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2015/ AVIATION... /00Z TAFS/ Scattered showers and thunderstorms will affect the KBBD and KJCT terminals through 1Z, with the main effect being variable gusty winds. A line of showers and thunderstorms, moving in from the west, may affect the KABI KSJT KSOA terminals after 6Z tonight. MVFR stratus returns otherwise returns late night along the I-10 corridor affecting KSOA, KJCT and KBBD. KSJT may see scattered low clouds towards 12Z. MVFR ceilings otherwise rise to VFR mid/late morning. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015/ SHORT TERM... (Tonight and Monday) Convection remains suppressed across most of West TX today as an area of large scale subsidence has overspread the region from the west. A subtle shortwave trough is noted south of the CWA, but it`s most significant impact will be to our south and east. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue across the eastern fringe of the CWA from Mason to Brownwood, with the remainder of the area likely dry into the evening hours. Tonight, the next wave of upper-level support will move across the High Plains. Thunderstorms over eastern NM and west TX are expected to develop, growing upscale into an MCS. Similar to what we saw last night, the greatest chance for thunderstorms will be across the Big Country. A second, smaller complex will be possible, originating from the southwest Texas convection. These storms may only affect the southwest portion of the CWA from Ozona to Sonora. Locally heavy rainfall will be the primary threat, although there could be some localized strong wind gusts. A moist, uncapped environment will remain in place on Monday. However, convection is not expected to be suppressed as much as today so we anticipate a fuller diurnal cu field and more scattered convection developing by midday. Where this convection initiates will be driven by the location of outflow boundaries from overnight convection. For now...rain chances across the area range from 20-40%. As has been the case, organized severe weather is not anticipated, but we could see a few strong, pulse storms that produce locally heavy rainfall. LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Sunday) Model guidance has improved today with the overall mid and upper-level patterns for the first half of the week. They show a ridge building over the Desert Southwest and the Southeastern states in the Monday through Wednesday time frame, with an upper trough (which has been discussed for the past few day) getting sandwiched in between the ridges. At the same time, a tropical disturbance currently located northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula, is forecast to move towards Corpus Christi. The National Hurricane Center gives this system a 70 percent chance of developing into at least a tropical storm, and it is forecast to track towards the middle Texas coast, before turning north and tracking generally along the Interstate 35 corridor. While this is typically to far east to bring any threat of widespread heavy rainfall to our region, the one thing it may do for us is give an influx of tropical moisture into the aforementioned trough. Another change noted today has been for a temporary increase in the strength of the upper trough crossing the state. With slightly better dynamics in place, precipitation may be somewhat more widespread Tuesday and Wednesday, and this trend has been noted in today`s numerical solutions. With this in mind, PoPs were increased across most of the region. As the tropical disturbance and trough interact, the previously mentioned ridges get damped out, with today`s model runs showing an uncapped airmass remaining in place through Friday. As a result, POPs were extended for this time across the eastern half of the forecast area. Heading into the weekend, a ridge will again develop across the Desert Southwest, with its eastern extent residing over West Central Texas, effectively ending our rainfall chances as drier air invades the region. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 69 88 70 86 70 / 40 40 40 50 30 San Angelo 71 90 69 88 70 / 30 20 30 40 30 Junction 72 90 71 89 70 / 20 20 20 50 40 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
227 PM PDT MON JUN 15 2015 .SYNOPSIS...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND ONSHORE FLOW AT LOW LEVELS CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK...BRINGING MORNING CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON SUN. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRES ALOFT WILL DEVELOP DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. && .SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE ERN PACIFIC NEAR 52N/138.5W MOVES VERY LITTLE THRU THURSDAY...KEEPING WLY-SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA. OCCASIONAL WEAK/DRY SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN WLY FLOW WILL MOVE THRU THE AREA /STARTING AT 00Z THIS EVENING/...WITH MINIMAL CHANGE TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. AT MID LEVELS WLY/SWLY FLOW INCREASES SLIGHTLY...FOR A LITTLE DEEPER MARINE INTRUSION REACHING FARTHER INLAND. MODELS INDICATE TUESDAY MAY SEE MORNING CLOUDS IN BOTH THE SRN WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND COLUMBIA RIVER LOWLANDS...WITH A FEW LESS CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY. INLAND AREAS WILL STILL CLEAR BY LATE MORNING...KEEPING MAX TEMPERATURES 2-4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MOST OF THE WEEK. BRIGHT && .LONG TERM...WLY TO SWLY FLOW CONTINUES THRU THURSDAY FOR A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN OF MORNING CLOUDS/LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON CLEARING. BY FRIDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER ERN PACIFIC WEST OF QUEEN CHARLOTTES BEGINS TO OPEN AND MOVE SEWD. GFS/ECMWF DIFFER IN DETAILS OF THIS EVOLUTION...PARTICULARLY IN THE STRENGTH OF UPSTREAM RIDGING AND RESULTING TROUGH PASSAGE OVER PACNW FRIDAY. GFS SHOWS LESS AMPLITUDE KEEPING ANY SHOWERS NORTH OF THE AREA...WHILE ECMWF HIGHER AMPLITUDE WITH MORE CLOUDS FRIDAY AND LOW-END POPS OVER FAR NWRN OR/SWRN WA. WILL LEAN TOWARD ECMWF AND KEEP LOW GRADE POPS IN THE GRIDS FRIDAY. THE WEEKEND APPEARS DRY AT THIS TIME...WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING UNDER WEAK UPPER RIDGING. BRIGHT && .AVIATION...WEAK WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NE PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A MARINE LAYER NEAR THE COAST. THE FLOW ALOFT INCREASES THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD SO WE SHOULD SEE MORE INLAND INTRUSION OF MARINE CLOUDS THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS. THE MODELS SUGGEST THE GREATEST COVERAGE COULD BE TUESDAY MORNING WITH AN INTRUSION BOTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN COASTAL GAP SOUTHWEST OF KEUG AND INLAND ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER. THE IFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST ARE CLEARING TO NEAR THE BEACHES NEAR KAST BUT WILL SPREAD BACK ONSHORE BY EARLY EVENING...AND WILL PROBABLY REMAIN OVER THE INLAND PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL STRIP NEAR KONP. IFR CIGS WILL THEN CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND LIKELY WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST WILL SPREAD INLAND THROUGH THE COASTAL GAPS TONIGHT...POSSIBLY REACHING KKLS BY 06Z OR 08Z...AND INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS NEAR KPDX AND KEUG BY 12Z. CONDITIONS INLAND SHOULD BECOME VFR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TODAY. LOW MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE 11Z-13Z TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE UNTIL 20Z OR 21Z. PT && .MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC THURSDAY. THERMAL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL NOT QUITE REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE INNER WATERS...BUT WILL OVER THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS ALL AREAS EASE A BIT LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...BUT LOOK LIKE THEY WILL PICK BACK UP IN THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS TILLAMOOK...BEFORE WEAKENING LATER IN THE WEEK AS A SYSTEM SWINGS THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SEAS REMAIN SQUARE AND CHOPPY WITH HEIGHTS AROUND 7 FEET AND PERIODS AROUND 7 SECONDS IN THE OUTER WATERS BUT ARE STARTING TO DROP IN THE INNER WATERS. SEAS CONTINUE TO DECREASE LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. PT && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...NONE. WA...NONE. PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM PDT TUESDAY. && $$ INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1115 AM PDT MON JUN 15 2015 .SYNOPSIS... Warm and dry weather will continue across the Inland Northwest. Friday and Saturday will be the days to watch for potentially hazardous weather including organized thunder as well and very gusty winds combining with low humidity. Otherwise...expect temperatures to gradually warm through mid-week with mainly mountain showers and isolated thunder. && .DISCUSSION... Very little changes made to today`s forecast. Main concerns will be isolated showers and thunderstorms in the far northern Cascades and a small chance along an axis stretching from southeastern Shoshone County toward Northeastern Oregon. The Cascades will carry a slightly higher probability with 11AM RAP data already showing 300-500 J/kg of sb CAPE and small cumulus towers starting to sprout. Any storms look to remain north and west of the 2014 burn scars but this will be monitored very closely. Northeast winds are currently at their peak and will continue to slowly come down through the afternoon hours but should generally remain from the N/NE until this evening. The strongest winds are channeling through the Okanogan Valley and Purcell Trench between Sandpoint and C`dA. Temperatures are currently running 3-5 degrees above yesterday and but with the low level air mass only warming 1-2C from yesterday && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS: A drier westerly flow aloft will continue to bring VFR conditions to all terminals with passing high clouds at times. The only sensible weather will be isolated showers and thunderstorms in the far northern Cascades and along an axis stretching from Northeastern Oregon to Missoula. Any activity looks to remain south of Lewiston. At the surface...northeast winds channeling down the Purcell Trench and Okanogan Valley will peak between 18-20z and gradual decrease by 00z. /sb && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 82 56 85 57 82 54 / 0 0 10 10 10 0 Coeur d`Alene 80 53 84 53 81 52 / 0 0 10 10 10 10 Pullman 80 49 83 50 80 49 / 10 10 10 10 10 10 Lewiston 88 58 91 59 88 57 / 0 10 10 10 10 10 Colville 83 51 89 52 85 50 / 0 0 10 10 20 20 Sandpoint 78 48 83 49 81 48 / 0 0 10 10 20 20 Kellogg 80 49 82 51 80 49 / 10 10 10 10 20 20 Moses Lake 89 55 91 58 87 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 88 64 90 63 86 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 86 55 91 55 86 52 / 0 0 10 10 20 10 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1029 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT HAS SETTLEDOVER THE OHIO VALLEY. DIURNAL CU POPPED LATE THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND NE WI...WHILE NORTH-CENTRAL WI HAS ENJOYED MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. LOOKING UPSTREAM...CLOUDS AND RAIN ARE SPREADING EAST OVER THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BLACK HILLS. AS THESE CLOUDS AND RAIN SPREAD EAST...PRECIP TRENDS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN. TONIGHT...RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE UPPER JET COMBINED WITH MID-LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION WILL PUSH CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN AND MOST OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE EVENING. SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARDS THE PRECIP DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES INTO DRIER AND STABLE AIR CLOSER TO THE SURFACE HIGH. SOME OF THIS RAIN WILL TRY TO MAKE A RUN INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE...AND WILL LEAVE A SMALL CHANCE IN THE FORECAST. UNDER INCREASING CLOUDS...LOWS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S. WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AS AN INVERTED TROUGH TIGHTENS OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. GUIDANCE PEGS THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN AND ALSO SNEAKING UP INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND THE WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA. AS A RESULT...HAVE BACKED OFF PRECIP CHANCES EXCEPT FOR VILAS COUNTY WHERE MAINTAINED LIKELY WORDING. THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN US WILL BRING SEVERAL SYSTEMS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN WITHIN 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE/BELOW NORMAL. THE FIRST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY...AS A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. TIME OF DAY COMBINED WITH OVERALL INSTABILITY STAYING LOW (UNDER 500 J/KG) SHOULD KEEP THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DOWN...BUT DECENT 0-6KM SHEAR OF 35-50 KTS ALONG WITH A SMALL RIBBON OF INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT COULD PRODUCE AT LEAST SOME BRIEF ORGANIZED STORM ACTIVITY. SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WITH A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. CHANCE POPS LOOK GOOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED. PWATS OVER AN INCH COULD BRING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. ON THURSDAY...THERE WILL BE LINGERING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND SHORTWAVE CROSS THE GREAT LAKES...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING AS THE FRONT COMPLETES ITS PASSAGE OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION SHOULD KEEP ANY ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON ISOLATED AT BEST. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST...PRODUCING CONVECTION ACROSS MINNESOTA ON FRIDAY...WHICH WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHERN WI LATE IN THE DAY...AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER...STILL HARD TO PIN DOWN THE DETAILS...INCLUDING THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER...AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND CLOUDS (LIMITING INSTABILITY) WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE NEW CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO FIRE. WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS ON SATURDAY WHEN MODELS SEEM TO POINT TO THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA. THE REMNANTS OF BILL WILL ATTEMPT TO REACH WI THIS WEEKEND...BUT THE ZONAL FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THIS MOISTURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THAT SAID...PWATS BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.5 INCHES WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. IF THE BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH OF THE AREA...SATURDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY COULD TURN OUT TO BE MAINLY DRY. WILL LEAN THE FORECAST THAT WAY AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS IS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO...BUT MODELS STILL SHOWING THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS OR STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCES MOVING EASTWARD IN THE ZONAL FLOW. WILL KEEP SOME LOWER POPS IN THIS PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. && .AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE ISSUED AT 1027 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 HIGH AND MIDDLE CLDS SPREAD ACRS MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. THE AREA OF RN TO THE WEST HELD TOGETHER BETTER THAN EXPECTED...BUT WAS NOW WEAKENING. WL NEED TO ACCOUNT FOR IT IN THE RHI TAF...AND AUW/CWA COULD SEE SOME SPRINKLES TOO. SOME RE- DEVELOPMENT OF THE PCPN IS EXPECTED WED. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......BERSCH AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
548 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE AND NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 544 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 HEAVIEST RAINS HAVE SHIFTED SE OF THE AREA. PLAN TO LET THE WRN USSFA CONT THROUGH TO IT/S 615 PM EXPIRATION...AS HAVE RECEIVED NUMEROUS REPORTS OF URBAN FLOODING FM THE ATW AREA. THE SECOND ADVISORY AREA...NRN MTW COUNTY...DID NOT GET AS MUCH RAIN. HAVE NOT RECEIVED ANY REPORTS OF FLOODING IN THIS AREA...SO WL BE DROPPING THE MTW ADVISORY SHORTLY. && .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A COLD FRONT POSITIONED FROM AROUND LA CROSSE TO IRON MOUNTAIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO EXPAND ALONG IT...AIDED BY WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF AN UPPER JET. THE STORMS HAVE BEEN BEHAVING SO FAR TODAY...BUT ARE DROPPING A QUICK HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN WITHIN A HUMID AIRMASS. BEHIND THE FRONT...A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS IS PUSHING SOUTHEAST AS EVIDENT BY DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 50S AND UPPER 40S. PRECIP TRENDS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE EVENING...FOLLOWED BY CLOUDS AND TEMPS. THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND EXIT THE NORTHEAST WISCONSIN SHORELINE BY EARLY TO MID-EVENING. WITH A MOIST AND HUMID AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PWATS NEARING 1.75 INCHES...AND ML CAPES OF 400-800 J/KG...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY PROBLEM HOLDING THEIR OWN INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. THE TIME OF ARRIVAL TOOL HAS THE STORMS MOVING INTO THE FOX VALLEY BETWEEN 20-21Z...AND APPROACHING THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AROUND 00Z THOUGH ISOLATED CELLS MAY POP AHEAD OF THE LINE. EVEN WITH THE INCREASING INSTABILITY OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN AHEAD OF THE LINE...WARM MID-LEVELS AROUND 700MB AND HIGH FREEZING LEVELS WILL LIMIT THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. 0-6KMB BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GREATER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED AT AROUND 25-30 KTS...SO WILL HAVE TO LOOK OUT FOR AN ISOLATED WIND THREAT...BUT THE THREAT IS PROBABLY TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE HWO. BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL SEE PARTIAL CLEARING WITH A VEIL OF CIRRUS OVERHEAD. MIDNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BETTER CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS THE CIRRUS DEPARTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND DRAG IN THE LESS HUMID AIR...WHICH SUPPORTS LOW TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO UPPER 50S SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. SOME OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL GET TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A SCT CU FIELD BY LATE MORNING. NO THREAT OF PRECIP THOUGH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH. .LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 ACTIVE ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SEVERAL EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES OF VARYING INTENSITY ARE FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN CONUS BRINING SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GUIDANCE NOTORIOUSLY TENDS TO STRUGGLE WITH TIMING...INTENSITY AND LOCATION OF THE INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES...AND THAT WAS THE RULE AGAIN IN THIS MODEL CYCLE. BECAUSE THIS IS A GENERALLY LOW CONFIDENCE SCENARIO...OPTED NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND MAINTAINED BROAD CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE EXTENDED. NEXT IN THE SERIES OF DISTURBANCES STILL LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. FORTUNATELY IT APPEARS THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING OUT OF TEXAS AROUND MID-WEEK SHOULD GET SHUNNED JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST....BUT WILL BEAR WATCHING. EVEN SO...STILL ADEQUATE MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR THIS DISTURBANCE TO WORK WITH. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST UNTIL ABOUT 12Z THURSDAY...TO BE FOLLOWED BY A DRY DAY OR SO BEFORE A POTENTIALLY MORE VIGOROUS SYSTEM BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM HAS POTENTIAL TO BRING RATHER SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE RAINFALL TO PARTS OF WISCONSIN AS WELL AS SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. TOO EARLY TO DECIPHER THE DETAILS FOR THE WEEKEND SYSTEM. ESB. && .AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE ISSUED AT 544 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEGIN TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA. EXPECT ENOUGH OF A SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LOW-LEVEL CAA TO KEEP FG FM BECOMING A PROBLEM. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE.........SKOWRONSKI SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......ESB AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A COLD FRONT POSITIONED FROM AROUND LA CROSSE TO IRON MOUNTAIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO EXPAND ALONG IT...AIDED BY WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF AN UPPER JET. THE STORMS HAVE BEEN BEHAVING SO FAR TODAY...BUT ARE DROPPING A QUICK HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN WITHIN A HUMID AIRMASS. BEHIND THE FRONT...A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS IS PUSHING SOUTHEAST AS EVIDENT BY DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 50S AND UPPER 40S. PRECIP TRENDS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE EVENING...FOLLOWED BY CLOUDS AND TEMPS. THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND EXIT THE NORTHEAST WISCONSIN SHORELINE BY EARLY TO MID-EVENING. WITH A MOIST AND HUMID AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PWATS NEARING 1.75 INCHES...AND ML CAPES OF 400-800 J/KG...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY PROBLEM HOLDING THEIR OWN INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. THE TIME OF ARRIVAL TOOL HAS THE STORMS MOVING INTO THE FOX VALLEY BETWEEN 20-21Z...AND APPROACHING THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AROUND 00Z THOUGH ISOLATED CELLS MAY POP AHEAD OF THE LINE. EVEN WITH THE INCREASING INSTABILITY OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN AHEAD OF THE LINE...WARM MID-LEVELS AROUND 700MB AND HIGH FREEZING LEVELS WILL LIMIT THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. 0-6KMB BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GREATER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED AT AROUND 25-30 KTS...SO WILL HAVE TO LOOK OUT FOR AN ISOLATED WIND THREAT...BUT THE THREAT IS PROBABLY TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE HWO. BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL SEE PARTIAL CLEARING WITH A VEIL OF CIRRUS OVERHEAD. MIDNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BETTER CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS THE CIRRUS DEPARTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND DRAG IN THE LESS HUMID AIR...WHICH SUPPORTS LOW TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO UPPER 50S SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. SOME OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL GET TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A SCT CU FIELD BY LATE MORNING. NO THREAT OF PRECIP THOUGH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH. .LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 ACTIVE ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SEVERAL EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES OF VARYING INTENSITY ARE FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN CONUS BRINING SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GUIDANCE NOTORIOUSLY TENDS TO STRUGGLE WITH TIMING...INTENSITY AND LOCATION OF THE INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES...AND THAT WAS THE RULE AGAIN IN THIS MODEL CYCLE. BECAUSE THIS IS A GENERALLY LOW CONFIDENCE SCENARIO...OPTED NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND MAINTAINED BROAD CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE EXTENDED. NEXT IN THE SERIES OF DISTURBANCES STILL LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. FORTUNATELY IT APPEARS THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING OUT OF TEXAS AROUND MID-WEEK SHOULD GET SHUNNED JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST....BUT WILL BEAR WATCHING. EVEN SO...STILL ADEQUATE MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR THIS DISTURBANCE TO WORK WITH. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST UNTIL ABOUT 12Z THURSDAY...TO BE FOLLOWED BY A DRY DAY OR SO BEFORE A POTENTIALLY MORE VIGOROUS SYSTEM BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM HAS POTENTIAL TO BRING RATHER SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE RAINFALL TO PARTS OF WISCONSIN AS WELL AS SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. TOO EARLY TO DECIPHER THE DETAILS FOR THE WEEKEND SYSTEM. ESB. && .AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF IFR VSBYS IN HEAVY RAIN BUT STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE NOT EXPECTED. THE STORMS WILL EXIT EASTERN WISCONSIN BY MID- EVENING...AND SKIES WILL CLEAR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. GOOD FLYING WEATHER WILL BE PRESENT ON TUESDAY THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......ESB AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1247 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 AT 3 AM...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM APOSTLE ISLANDS TO KANSAS CITY MISSOURI. DEW POINTS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WERE IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...AND IN THE 40S AND 50S IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS NO CONVECTION LOCATED ALONG THIS FRONT. MEANWHILE FURTHER SOUTH...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF IOWA...NORTHERN ILLINOIS... AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS PRECIPITATION WAS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN EASTERN NEBRASKA IN A BAND OF 900 TO 500 MB FRONTOGENESIS. FOR TODAY...THE 15.00Z MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA... WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH IOWA THIS MORNING...AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 1.50 TO 2.00 INCH RANGE. THE HIGHEST TOTALS WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN IOWA... NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. IN ADDITION...THE WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS IN THIS AREA WILL BE CLOSE TO 4 KM. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL MODERATE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THIS SAME AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. RAINFALL TOTALS COULD BE AROUND AN INCH...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS SEEING UP TO 2 INCHES. WITH THE PRECIPITATION EXPECT THAT RAP AND NAM ARE TOO HIGH ON THEIR 0-1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPES...OVERALL PREFER THE LOWER GFS AND ECMWF WHICH HAVE THESE CAPES LESS THAN 750 J/KG. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE RAP...A MAJORITY OF THE MODELS HAVE VERY LITTLE 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR...SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...OR TORNADOES. FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA. NORMALLY THIS WOULD BE THE SCENARIO FOR DENSE FOG. HOWEVER THE WINDS ABOVE 500 FEET REMAIN AROUND 20 KNOTS AND THE DRY AIR IS CAUSING DEW DEPARTURES OF 4 TO 8 DEGREES LATE TONIGHT. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE 15.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST THROUGH THE AREA. THE STRONG WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM RESULTS IN 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS. HOWEVER THIS FRONT IS COMING THROUGH AT THE WRONG TIME OF DAY AND THE 0-1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPES AT THIS TIME ARE LESS THAN 500 J/KG...THUS NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER. THE NAM SHOWS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE INTERACTION FROM A SYSTEM FROM A SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE NAM SOLUTION SEEMS TO BE A BIT TOO FAST...SO WOULD TREND MORE TOWARD THE GFS. FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM HAS A SLIGHT DEEPER TROUGH THAN THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE 0-1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPES CLIMBING UP TO 1500 J/KG AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. THEY DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR. THE GFS HAS 0-6 KM SHEAR GREATER THAN 50 KNOTS. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF HAS LESS THAN 20 KNOTS. DUE TO THIS DISCREPANCY...THERE ARE A LOT OF QUESTIONS ON WHETHER THERE WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM. WHILE THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS...THEY DO SHOW THAT THERE COULD BE INTERACTION WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST GULF. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ONGOING SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...AND POSSIBLE IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AT RST/LSE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST 17Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO WESTERN IOWA. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER IOWA INTERACTING WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/NORTHEAST IOWA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN PER KARX RADAR. LATEST METARS UNDERNEATH THE SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...REPORTING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. AS THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE RST/LSE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON...IMPROVING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. AT THIS TIME...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 19Z TODAY AT RST AND AROUND 22Z AT LSE. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE REMAINS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION...DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORM AT LSE TAF SITE THROUGH 22Z TODAY. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS AT RST/LSE TAF SITES. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BOYNE LONG TERM....BOYNE AVIATION...DTJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1146 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 .UPDATE... A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN WI THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAIN OVER SOUTHERN WI RIGHT NOW IS SUPPORTED BY VORTICITY ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE 15Z HRRR RUN HAS NOW CAUGHT ON TO REALITY AND DOES NOT PRODUCE AS MUCH CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN WI THIS AFTERNOON AS ITS PREVIOUS RUNS. CAPE AND SHEAR ARE VERY LIMITED ACROSS SOUTHERN WI. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES... PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDER ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TRACKING IN A LINE THROUGH NORTHWEST WI AND SOUTHEAST MN TODAY ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT. IT APPEARS THAT THE BETTER DEFORMATION ALOFT THAT ALIGNS WITH THIS FRONT WILL DIMINISH BY THE TIME THAT FRONT SLIDES THROUGH SOUTHEAST WI IN THE EVENING. THUS... PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE GONE AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH IN THE EVENING. && .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/... SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING WISCONSIN. THE ROUNDS OF RAIN WILL LOWER THE VSBYS AND CIGS AT TIMES. THE SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING OVER SE WI BUT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. && .MARINE... DENSE FOG DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING... MAINLY SOUTH OF SHEBOYGAN PER WEBCAMS. THUS... ISSUED A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 00Z/7 PM THIS EVENING. THE THREAT OF FOG WILL DIMINISH AS SOON AS NORTHERLY WINDS USHER DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015/ TODAY AND TONIGHT...CANCELLED DENSE FOG ADVISORY WITH LITTLE TO NO FOG DEVELOPING. THIS IS PROBABLY DUE TO WLY WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC AND INCREASING CLOUDS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND TRANSPORT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NW WILL TRIGGER ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS TODAY. THE STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...AROUND 15-20 KTS WITH VERY HIGH PWS OF 1.6-1.9 INCHES. THUS WILL MENTION A SMALL THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING IN THE HWO. MLCAPE SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 1000 J/KG WHICH WILL KEEP ANY CHANCES OF SVR TSTORMS VERY LOW. NLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY DRY OUT THE ATMOSPHERE TNT WITH 50 DEWPOINTS BY TUE AM. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...HIGH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THE WRN GRT LAKES REGION WITH A COOLER AND DRIER NE FLOW. 925 TEMPS PROGGD TO BE IN THE LOW/MID TEENS CELSIUS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAKE FOR THE USUAL EAST/WEST TEMP GRADIENT FOR THIS REGIME. NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS BOTH SHOW A VERY DRY COLUMN SO EXPECTING A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER SOLUTION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SPREADING PRECIP INTO SW CWA IN RETURN FLOW. MEANWHILE GEM/GFS/ECMWF ARE DRY. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SMALL POPS IN THE SW CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NAM SOLUTION. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM COMBO OF PIVA WITH SHORTWAVE AND SOME 850 WAA WILL HELP GENERATE SHRA/TSRA. MODELS SUGGEST WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THE DAY WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT ARRIVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GETTING SOME MODEST CAPE VALUES WITH BORDERLINE 0-6KM SHEAR AND LESS THAN IDEAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SWODY3 MARGINAL RISK APPEARS REASONABLE. 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z GEM SUGGEST SOME LINGERING EFFECTS OF THE FRONT INTO EARLY THURSDAY BUT THE 00Z GFS HAS TRENDED DRIER. MUCH OF THURSDAY TO BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES IN. THIS HIGH WILL DOMINATE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS TO KEEP REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM JUST TO OUR SOUTH WHILE NORTHERN PLAINS LOW EXTENDS WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO WI. HOWEVER ECMWF DOES BRING PRECIP SHIELD INTO SRN WI WITH THE MID MISS VLY CIRCULATION. IF THAT CAN STAY SOUTH PER GFS/GEM THEN BULK OF PLAINS SYSTEM PRECIP EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR WEST OR NORTH...THOUGH THE GFS DOES GIVE MORE OF A BROAD BRUSH TO THE WAA PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW TIMING AND ORIENTATION DIFFERENCES ON THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA. THE GFS IS QUICKER WITH INITIAL WEAKER LOW THAT PASSES TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. THEN BIGGER DIFFERENCES ARISE WITH SECOND AND STRONGER LOW. ECMWF DEVELOPS LOW ACROSS NRN WI SAT NGT INTO SUNDAY WHILE GFS IS TRENDING THIS SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH. STRONGER CAA SIGNAL FROM THE ECMWF ON SUNDAY AS WELL AND NOT AS MUCH FROM THE GFS. LOTS OF DIFFERENCES AND DETAILS TO IRON OUT AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO NEXT WEEKEND. WILL GO WITH SUPERBLEND POPS/TEMPS FOR NOW. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...INTERMITTENT SHOWERS AND TSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE ROUNDS OF RAIN WILL LOWER THE CIGS TO 1.0-3.0 KFT AT TIMES ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. PREVAILING VSBYS WILL ALSO LOWER TO 3-5SM AT TIMES ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. LOWERS CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE FOUND WITHIN THE STRONGER SHOWERS OR STORMS. THE SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING OVER SE WI BUT NLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. MARINE...CANCELLED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WITH WEBCAMS SHOWING GOOD VISIBILITY ALONG THE LAKESHORE. SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WHICH USUALLY LIMITS THE FOG BUT STILL EXPECT SOME FOG TO FORM ESPECIALLY TOWARD SHEBOYGAN AS DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGH. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ644>646. && $$ UPDATE...MRC TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...COLLAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
620 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 AT 3 AM...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM APOSTLE ISLANDS TO KANSAS CITY MISSOURI. DEW POINTS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WERE IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...AND IN THE 40S AND 50S IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS NO CONVECTION LOCATED ALONG THIS FRONT. MEANWHILE FURTHER SOUTH...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF IOWA...NORTHERN ILLINOIS... AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS PRECIPITATION WAS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN EASTERN NEBRASKA IN A BAND OF 900 TO 500 MB FRONTOGENESIS. FOR TODAY...THE 15.00Z MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA... WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH IOWA THIS MORNING...AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 1.50 TO 2.00 INCH RANGE. THE HIGHEST TOTALS WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN IOWA... NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. IN ADDITION...THE WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS IN THIS AREA WILL BE CLOSE TO 4 KM. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL MODERATE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THIS SAME AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. RAINFALL TOTALS COULD BE AROUND AN INCH...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS SEEING UP TO 2 INCHES. WITH THE PRECIPITATION EXPECT THAT RAP AND NAM ARE TOO HIGH ON THEIR 0-1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPES...OVERALL PREFER THE LOWER GFS AND ECMWF WHICH HAVE THESE CAPES LESS THAN 750 J/KG. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE RAP...A MAJORITY OF THE MODELS HAVE VERY LITTLE 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR...SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...OR TORNADOES. FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA. NORMALLY THIS WOULD BE THE SCENARIO FOR DENSE FOG. HOWEVER THE WINDS ABOVE 500 FEET REMAIN AROUND 20 KNOTS AND THE DRY AIR IS CAUSING DEW DEPARTURES OF 4 TO 8 DEGREES LATE TONIGHT. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE 15.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST THROUGH THE AREA. THE STRONG WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM RESULTS IN 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS. HOWEVER THIS FRONT IS COMING THROUGH AT THE WRONG TIME OF DAY AND THE 0-1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPES AT THIS TIME ARE LESS THAN 500 J/KG...THUS NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER. THE NAM SHOWS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE INTERACTION FROM A SYSTEM FROM A SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE NAM SOLUTION SEEMS TO BE A BIT TOO FAST...SO WOULD TREND MORE TOWARD THE GFS. FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM HAS A SLIGHT DEEPER TROUGH THAN THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE 0-1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPES CLIMBING UP TO 1500 J/KG AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. THEY DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR. THE GFS HAS 0-6 KM SHEAR GREATER THAN 50 KNOTS. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF HAS LESS THAN 20 KNOTS. DUE TO THIS DISCREPANCY...THERE ARE A LOT OF QUESTIONS ON WHETHER THERE WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM. WHILE THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS...THEY DO SHOW THAT THERE COULD BE INTERACTION WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST GULF. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 THE COMBINATION OF A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM NEB IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SCT SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE MAIN TIMING FOR THESE LOOK TO BE FROM 15-19Z AT KRST AND 16-20Z AT KLSE. WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCT COVERAGE AS THE SHRA/TSRA MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...LEFT THIS AS A PERIOD OF VCTS/CB WITH MVFR CIGS AT THIS TIME. STRONGER SHRA/TSRA AND PRECIP CORES WILL PRODUCE IFR VSBYS...AS ANY CONVECTION TODAY SHOULD BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. GOOD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR TONIGHT AS COOLER/DRIER CAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5-9KTS AND THE DRIER AIRMASS WITH THE HIGH SHOULD KEEP ANY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING BR AROUND 12Z TUE TO A MINIMUM. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BOYNE LONG TERM....BOYNE AVIATION.....RRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
350 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 AT 3 AM...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM APOSTLE ISLANDS TO KANSAS CITY MISSOURI. DEW POINTS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WERE IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...AND IN THE 40S AND 50S IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS NO CONVECTION LOCATED ALONG THIS FRONT. MEANWHILE FURTHER SOUTH...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF IOWA...NORTHERN ILLINOIS... AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS PRECIPITATION WAS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN EASTERN NEBRASKA IN A BAND OF 900 TO 500 MB FRONTOGENESIS. FOR TODAY...THE 15.00Z MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA... WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH IOWA THIS MORNING...AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 1.50 TO 2.00 INCH RANGE. THE HIGHEST TOTALS WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN IOWA... NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. IN ADDITION...THE WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS IN THIS AREA WILL BE CLOSE TO 4 KM. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL MODERATE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THIS SAME AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. RAINFALL TOTALS COULD BE AROUND AN INCH...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS SEEING UP TO 2 INCHES. WITH THE PRECIPITATION EXPECT THAT RAP AND NAM ARE TOO HIGH ON THEIR 0-1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPES...OVERALL PREFER THE LOWER GFS AND ECMWF WHICH HAVE THESE CAPES LESS THAN 750 J/KG. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE RAP...A MAJORITY OF THE MODELS HAVE VERY LITTLE 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR...SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...OR TORNADOES. FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA. NORMALLY THIS WOULD BE THE SCENARIO FOR DENSE FOG. HOWEVER THE WINDS ABOVE 500 FEET REMAIN AROUND 20 KNOTS AND THE DRY AIR IS CAUSING DEW DEPARTURES OF 4 TO 8 DEGREES LATE TONIGHT. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE 15.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST THROUGH THE AREA. THE STRONG WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM RESULTS IN 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS. HOWEVER THIS FRONT IS COMING THROUGH AT THE WRONG TIME OF DAY AND THE 0-1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPES AT THIS TIME ARE LESS THAN 500 J/KG...THUS NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER. THE NAM SHOWS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE INTERACTION FROM A SYSTEM FROM A SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE NAM SOLUTION SEEMS TO BE A BIT TOO FAST...SO WOULD TREND MORE TOWARD THE GFS. FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM HAS A SLIGHT DEEPER TROUGH THAN THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE 0-1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPES CLIMBING UP TO 1500 J/KG AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. THEY DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR. THE GFS HAS 0-6 KM SHEAR GREATER THAN 50 KNOTS. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF HAS LESS THAN 20 KNOTS. DUE TO THIS DISCREPANCY...THERE ARE A LOT OF QUESTIONS ON WHETHER THERE WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM. WHILE THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS...THEY DO SHOW THAT THERE COULD BE INTERACTION WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST GULF. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015 A MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF BR AND POSSIBLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH VISIBILITIES FALLING INTO THE 4 TO 5 SM RANGE. A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTH INTO THE REGION AND A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST IOWA WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY MONDAY MORNING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE UNDER ANY THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS TAPERING OFF AND SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY EVENING. LOOK FOR WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS OF 9 TO 11 KTS EXPECTED. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BOYNE LONG TERM...BOYNE AVIATION...WETENKAMP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1128 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015 UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015 THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST OVER WEST-CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. OUTSIDE OF A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS...THE WARM FRONT IS LARGELY INACTIVE OVER MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS GENERATING SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...BUT IT IS ALSO QUIET ELSEWHERE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. CLOSER TO HOME...CLOUD COVER IS GRADUALLY BREAKING UP AS HEATING HELPS MIX INTO DRIER AIR ABOVE THE INVERSION. CLEARING SHOULD ALSO WORK INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WI FROM THE WEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TRENDS...AND FOG POTENTIAL. TONIGHT...SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STALLED FROM APPROX. LA CROSSE TO SHEBOYGAN. MEANWHILE...A POCKET OF DRY AIR IN THE MID- LEVELS WILL EXIST NEAR THE WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN LATE. THIS DRY AIR SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. THE LONE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER N-C WISCONSIN WHERE SOME SHOWERS COULD SNEAK INTO THAT AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HAVE THOUGHT ABOUT ADDING A CHANCE OF A SHOWER ALONG THE WARM FRONT...BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT IN THE UPPER SUPPORT THAT THE NAM PRODUCES. OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING THIS EVENING IF NOT MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL PROMOTE FOG FORMATION ONCE AGAIN. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE REASONABLY LOW EVERYWHERE...SO HARD TO POINT TO A FAVORED AREA. LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH. MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND PASS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI DURING THE MORNING...AND EASTERN WI IN THE AFTERNOON. PRECIP COVERAGE UPSTREAM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...SO DID NOT WANT TO TAKE POPS INTO THE LIKELY RANGE. BUT THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF JET STREAK DOES PROVIDE SOME UPPER SUPPORT...SO FELT COMPELLED TO LEAVE PRECIP IN THE HIGH CHANCE AREA. IF HEATING OCCURS OVER THE EAST...ML CAPES COULD REACH UP TO AROUND 500 J/KG. BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ONLY AROUND 20 KTS...SO ANY STORMS THAT POP UP SHOULD BE OF THE PULSE VARIETY...WITH LITTLE CHANCES OF ANYTHING SEVERE. HIGHS WILL APPROACH 80 OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN...BUT REMAIN IN THE MID 70S OVER THE NORTH WHERE RAIN COULD OCCUR DURING THE MORNING. .LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015 NEAR ZONAL FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK AND TO SOME DEGREE EVEN INTO NEXT WEEKEND PROVIDES PCPN CHANCES NEARLY EVERY OTHER DAY OR TWO WITH TIMING THESE FEATURES THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE. INITIAL SHORT WAVE SLIDING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL DRAG A COOL FRONT EAST OF THE STATE LATER MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL MODEL TIMING CONSENSUS DEPARTS ANY CONVECTION TO THE EAST MONDAY EVENING...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE A MENTION OVER PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN DUE TO THE RRQ REGION OF THE UPPER JET PASSING OVER. HIGH PRESS DRIFTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY PRIOR TO THE NEXT SUBTLE SHORT WAVE WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE AREA IS PROGGED TO PASS OVER FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...A BIT SLOWER PASSAGE PROBABLY DUE TO GRADUALLY BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS. ECMWF ALSO DROPS A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEKEND WHILE THE GFS SPLITS UP THE ENERGY A BIT IN THE WESTERLY FLOW. NEVERTHELESS...PCPN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL NOT BE TOO FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA. DUE NOTICE SOME OF THE STABILITY PROGS SHOW MORE INSTABILITY FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH SATURDAY THE FOCUS AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE ISSUED AT 1126 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015 MAIN AVIATION FORECAST ISSUE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG/LOW CLDS TO REFORM AGAIN TNGT. TEMP/DWPT DIFFERENCES CLOSED UP VERY RAPIDLY DURING THE EVENING. STILL PLAN TO HAVE AT LEAST SOME FG/ST FORM OVERNIGHT...THOUGH HIGH/MIDDLE CLDS MAY HELP HOLD THINGS IN CHECK SOMEWHAT. ONE AREA WERE THAT WON/T HELP IS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...WHERE VERY MOIST AIR FLOWING ACRS THE COLD LAKE WATERS WL RESULT IN LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......TDH AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
419 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2015 A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF OUR SOUTHEAST WY ZONES EXCEPT NIOBRARA COUNTY THROUGH 11 PM. MLCAPE IS UP TO 1000-1500 J/KG ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. BULK SHEAR IS AROUND 40 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS LESS UNSTABLE (CAPE LESS THAN 1000 J/KG) ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS WHERE LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MORE PERSISTENT. CONVECTION HAS BROKEN OUT OVER CARBON/ALBANY COUNTIES WITH A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SVR CELLS. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW THIS CONVECTION EVOLVES THROUGH THE EVENING AS IT MOVES INTO AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THE HRRR DOES INDICATE SOME STRONGER STORMS THROUGH 03Z OVER SOUTHEAST WY BEFORE THE ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE CLUSTERED AND MULTICELLULAR ESPECIALLY OVER CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA COUNTIES. ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW A GOOD AMOUNT OF QPF THROUGH SUNRISE TUESDAY IN THE NORTHERN ZONES AND NORTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST WY. THIS IS WHERE THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE. ALTHOUGH THE STEERING FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY SLOW (20-25 KTS)...WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING SINCE SOME OF THE EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE CELLS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY RAIN. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY LATE TONIGHT. THE DECENT RISK FOR SVR STORMS TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE CONTINUES TO LOOK ON TRACK FOR TUESDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE MUCH BETTER ON TUES OVER THE PLAINS AND ESPECIALLY THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THE SFC TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE WY-NE BORDER DURING THE AFTN AND THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE TRIGGER FOR CONVECTIVE INITATION. THE COMBINATION OF BULK SHEAR OF 45-50 KTS AND CAPES NEAR 1500 J/KG WILL PROMOTE A GOOD CHANCE OF STORMS TO BECOME SUPERCELLULAR. THINKING IS LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT AS LLVL SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK AND HODOGRAPHS ARE STRAIGHT. SPC HAS MUCH OF THE PLAINS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR WEATHER ON TUES. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2015 WEDNESDAY...SOUTHEASTERLY LLVL FLOW WILL BE DEVELOP DURING THE AFTN WITH GOOD INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. COULD SEE ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF STRONG TO SVR STORMS GIVEN THAT BULK SHEAR IS 35-40 KTS. THURSDAY...MOSTLY DRY AND QUITE WARM WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT PRODUCING ENOUGH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FRIDAY...FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS OUT WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALOFT MOVING ACROSS...THOUGH WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT...MINIMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SATURDAY...MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES ACROSS AND WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND CORRESPONDING DECREASE IN WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WILL SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. SUNDAY...HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE WITH FLOW TURNING NORTHWEST AND WITH DRIER LOW AND MID LEVELS...WILL SEE A DECREASE IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING AREAL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1236 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2015 LOW STRATUS REMAINS INTACT ALONG/EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT A FEW TERMINALS THROUGH 20-21Z...BUT IN GENERAL EXPECT CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY ERODE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WEST THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AND MOVING EAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE BENEATH HEAVIER STORMS. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2015 MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 15-20 PERCENT TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON THESE DAYS. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WYZ101>103. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ZF LONG TERM...CLH/RUBIN AVIATION...CLH FIRE WEATHER...ZF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1240 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT MON JUN 15 2015 VERY ACTIVE WEATHERWISE IN THE SHORT TERM. FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. CURRENTLY...COLD FRONT PRETTY MUCH LOCATED WHERE ADVERTISED...GENERALLY FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA...TO SIDNEY...ALONG THE WYOMING/COLORADO STATELINE OUT TO NEAR RAWLINS THIS MORNING AT 1 AM. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING MCV FEATURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE MOVING EAST AND JUST ABOUT TO CLEAR CHEYENNE COUNTY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWING THE SHORTWAVE THAT KICKED OFF CONVECTION TO THE NORTH IS JUST ABOUT TO CLEAR THE WYOMING/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER...WHICH SHOULD BRING CONVECTION TO AN END FOR THE MOST PART UP THERE. NEXT SHORTWAVE TO IMPACT THE AREA MOVING INTO IDAHO THIS MORNING WITH ANOTHER JUST MOVING ONSHORE NEAR THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON BORDER. FOR TODAY...ONCE THIS CONVECTION ENDS...DO EXPECT TO SEE STRATUS DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE BEHIND THE FRONT. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SHOWING THE STRATUS PUSHING AS FAR WEST AS THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS MORNING. IT MAY BE SLOW TO BREAK UP WITH EAST TO NORTHEAST UPSLOPE WINDS CONTINUING. LATEST NAM CAPES FOR THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING MOST UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN OUR WESTERN ZONES WITH MUCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. COULD BE DEALING WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OUT THAT WAY TODAY. BY TONIGHT...GUIDANCE SHOWING THE FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES. NAM...GFS AND ECMWF TARGETING HIGH QPF FORECASTS OVER CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA COUNTIES. FORECAST STORM MOTIONS BY DOUGLAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT UNDER 10KTS AND PWATS OVER AN INCH. DECIDED TO HOIST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR CONVERSE/NIOBRARA COUNTIES FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. GET A LITTLE BREAK IN THE ACTION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT BY AFTERNOON...SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION. THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE CALIFORNIA/OREGON WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NAM MUCAPES OVER 3500 J/KG IN THE PANHANDLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LIFTED INDICES -7 TO -8C WITH 40-60KTS OF SHEAR OUT IN THE PANHANDLE. DO BELIEVE ALL MODES OF SEVERE CONVECTIVE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 125 AM MDT MON JUN 15 2015 WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THURSDAY...MOSTLY DRY AND QUITE WARM WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT PRODUCING ENOUGH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FRIDAY...FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS OUT WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALOFT MOVING ACROSS...THOUGH WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT...MINIMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SATURDAY...MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES ACROSS AND WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND CORRESPONDING DECREASE IN WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WILL SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. SUNDAY...HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE WITH FLOW TURNING NORTHWEST AND WITH DRIER LOW AND MID LEVELS...WILL SEE A DECREASE IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING AREAL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1236 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2015 LOW STRATUS REMAINS INTACT ALONG/EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT A FEW TERMINALS THROUGH 20-21Z...BUT IN GENERAL EXPECT CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY ERODE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WEST THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AND MOVING EAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE BENEATH HEAVIER STORMS. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 125 AM MDT MON JUN 15 2015 FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MINIMAL AS MOST AREAS IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE RECEIVE WETTING RAINS THROUGH TUESDAY. A STALLED OUT COLD FRONT ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL BE THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR WIDESPREAD RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WYZ101>103. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GCC LONG TERM...RUBIN AVIATION...CLH FIRE WEATHER...GCC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
535 AM MDT MON JUN 15 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT MON JUN 15 2015 VERY ACTIVE WEATHERWISE IN THE SHORT TERM. FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. CURRENTLY...COLD FRONT PRETTY MUCH LOCATED WHERE ADVERTISED...GENERALLY FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA...TO SIDNEY...ALONG THE WYOMING/COLORADO STATELINE OUT TO NEAR RAWLINS THIS MORNING AT 1 AM. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING MCV FEATURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE MOVING EAST AND JUST ABOUT TO CLEAR CHEYENNE COUNTY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWING THE SHORTWAVE THAT KICKED OFF CONVECTION TO THE NORTH IS JUST ABOUT TO CLEAR THE WYOMING/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER...WHICH SHOULD BRING CONVECTION TO AN END FOR THE MOST PART UP THERE. NEXT SHORTWAVE TO IMPACT THE AREA MOVING INTO IDAHO THIS MORNING WITH ANOTHER JUST MOVING ONSHORE NEAR THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON BORDER. FOR TODAY...ONCE THIS CONVECTION ENDS...DO EXPECT TO SEE STRATUS DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE BEHIND THE FRONT. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SHOWING THE STRATUS PUSHING AS FAR WEST AS THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS MORNING. IT MAY BE SLOW TO BREAK UP WITH EAST TO NORTHEAST UPSLOPE WINDS CONTINUING. LATEST NAM CAPES FOR THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING MOST UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN OUR WESTERN ZONES WITH MUCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. COULD BE DEALING WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OUT THAT WAY TODAY. BY TONIGHT...GUIDANCE SHOWING THE FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES. NAM...GFS AND ECMWF TARGETING HIGH QPF FORECASTS OVER CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA COUNTIES. FORECAST STORM MOTIONS BY DOUGLAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT UNDER 10KTS AND PWATS OVER AN INCH. DECIDED TO HOIST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR CONVERSE/NIOBRARA COUNTIES FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. GET A LITTLE BREAK IN THE ACTION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT BY AFTERNOON...SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION. THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE CALIFORNIA/OREGON WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NAM MUCAPES OVER 3500 J/KG IN THE PANHANDLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LIFTED INDICES -7 TO -8C WITH 40-60KTS OF SHEAR OUT IN THE PANHANDLE. DO BELIEVE ALL MODES OF SEVERE CONVECTIVE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 125 AM MDT MON JUN 15 2015 WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THURSDAY...MOSTLY DRY AND QUITE WARM WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT PRODUCING ENOUGH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FRIDAY...FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS OUT WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALOFT MOVING ACROSS...THOUGH WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT...MINIMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SATURDAY...MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES ACROSS AND WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND CORRESPONDING DECREASE IN WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WILL SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. SUNDAY...HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE WITH FLOW TURNING NORTHWEST AND WITH DRIER LOW AND MID LEVELS...WILL SEE A DECREASE IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING AREAL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 532 AM MDT MON JUN 15 2015 WYOMING TAFS...IFR AT CHEYENNE UNTIL 15Z...AND MVFR FROM 15Z TO 18Z...OTHERWISE VFR PREVAILS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LOCALIZED MVFR AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS. NEBRASKA TAFS...IFR PREVAILS UNTIL 15Z...THEN VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LOCALIZED MVFR AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 125 AM MDT MON JUN 15 2015 FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MINIMAL AS MOST AREAS IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE RECEIVE WETTING RAINS THROUGH TUESDAY. A STALLED OUT COLD FRONT ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL BE THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR WIDESPREAD RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WYZ101>103. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GCC LONG TERM...RUBIN AVIATION...RUBIN FIRE WEATHER...GCC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
223 AM MDT MON JUN 15 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT MON JUN 15 2015 VERY ACTIVE WEATHERWISE IN THE SHORT TERM. FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. CURRENTLY...COLD FRONT PRETTY MUCH LOCATED WHERE ADVERTISED...GENERALLY FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA...TO SIDNEY...ALONG THE WYOMING/COLORADO STATELINE OUT TO NEAR RAWLINS THIS MORNING AT 1 AM. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING MCV FEATURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE MOVING EAST AND JUST ABOUT TO CLEAR CHEYENNE COUNTY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWING THE SHORTWAVE THAT KICKED OFF CONVECTION TO THE NORTH IS JUST ABOUT TO CLEAR THE WYOMING/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER...WHICH SHOULD BRING CONVECTION TO AN END FOR THE MOST PART UP THERE. NEXT SHORTWAVE TO IMPACT THE AREA MOVING INTO IDAHO THIS MORNING WITH ANOTHER JUST MOVING ONSHORE NEAR THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON BORDER. FOR TODAY...ONCE THIS CONVECTION ENDS...DO EXPECT TO SEE STRATUS DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE BEHIND THE FRONT. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SHOWING THE STRATUS PUSHING AS FAR WEST AS THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS MORNING. IT MAY BE SLOW TO BREAK UP WITH EAST TO NORTHEAST UPSLOPE WINDS CONTINUING. LATEST NAM CAPES FOR THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING MOST UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN OUR WESTERN ZONES WITH MUCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. COULD BE DEALING WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OUT THAT WAY TODAY. BY TONIGHT...GUIDANCE SHOWING THE FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES. NAM...GFS AND ECMWF TARGETING HIGH QPF FORECASTS OVER CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA COUNTIES. FORECAST STORM MOTIONS BY DOUGLAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT UNDER 10KTS AND PWATS OVER AN INCH. DECIDED TO HOIST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR CONVERSE/NIOBRARA COUNTIES FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. GET A LITTLE BREAK IN THE ACTION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT BY AFTERNOON...SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION. THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE CALIFORNIA/OREGON WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NAM MUCAPES OVER 3500 J/KG IN THE PANHANDLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LIFTED INDICES -7 TO -8C WITH 40-60KTS OF SHEAR OUT IN THE PANHANDLE. DO BELIEVE ALL MODES OF SEVERE CONVECTIVE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 125 AM MDT MON JUN 15 2015 WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THURSDAY...MOSTLY DRY AND QUITE WARM WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT PRODUCING ENOUGH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FRIDAY...FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS OUT WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALOFT MOVING ACROSS...THOUGH WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT...MINIMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SATURDAY...MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES ACROSS AND WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND CORRESPONDING DECREASE IN WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WILL SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. SUNDAY...HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE WITH FLOW TURNING NORTHWEST AND WITH DRIER LOW AND MID LEVELS...WILL SEE A DECREASE IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING AREAL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1101 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015 LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING STORMS WEAKENING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL AID IN UPSLOPING STRATUS AND POSSIBLY FOG...ESPECIALLY OUT IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. USED LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE FOR TIMING OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. STRATUS COULD PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING. WILL TRY TO NAIL DOWN DISSIPATION TIME ON THE 12Z TAFS. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 125 AM MDT MON JUN 15 2015 FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MINIMAL AS MOST AREAS IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE RECEIVE WETTING RAINS THROUGH TUESDAY. A STALLED OUT COLD FRONT ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL BE THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR WIDESPREAD RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WYZ101>103. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GCC LONG TERM...RUBIN AVIATION...RUBIN FIRE WEATHER...GCC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1105 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015 WEAK FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE REGION WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND IT. TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE SFC TROUGH FROM EXTREME NORTHEASTERN COLORADO INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THESE STORMS ARE NOT MAKING MUCH HEADWAY TO THE WEST AND ARE RATHER STATIONARY. MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW AN UPTICK IN SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AFTER 00Z. THE HRRR DOES SHOW SOME STRONGER STORMS INITIATING OVER THE NORTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CONVERSE AND NORTHERN PLATTE COUNTIES FROM 00-03Z. LAPS ANALYSIS DOES SHOW 1500 J/KG OF CAPE UP THERE ALONG WITH A BIT STRONGER FLOW ALOFT THAT YIELDS DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF AROUND 30KTS. THE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT WOULD SUPPORT SMALL HAIL OR EVEN A MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM THROUGH THE EVENING. THE TSTM THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY NIGHT (A BIT LATER THAN NORMAL) OVER MAINLY SOUTHEAST WY AS THE MODELS INDICATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY. GENERALLY HAVE 40-50 PERCENT POPS THROUGH 06Z. ALSO ADDED PATCHY FOG ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE BY LATE TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL DEPEND ON ANY ONGOING RAIN. LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE IN PLACE. INSTABILITY IS WEAK OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS IN THE POST FRONTAL AIR MASS. THE GFS SHOWS THE BEST INSTABILITY ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH CAPE VALUES OF 1250-1500 J/KG. SPC HAS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WY IN A MARGINAL RISK AND THIS LOOKS GOOD. STORMS COULD WAIT TO INITIATE UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE SINCE THERE WILL BE A GOOD DEAL OF INHIBITION THROUGH THE DAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH CENTRAL WY BY THE EVENING AND MOVE ACROSS EASTERN WY DURING THE NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE STORMS GOING...SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG... THROUGH SUNRISE ON TUESDAY ESPECIALLY OVER CONVERSE/NIOBRARA COUNTIES. THE BEST SEVERE THREAT IS STILL LOOKING LIKE TUESDAY AFTN OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS SOMEWHERE NEAR THE WY-NE BORDER BY THE AFTN WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS TO EAST OF THE DRYLINE. WITH DEWPOINTS OF 55-60F AND WARM SFC TEMPS...CAPE IS UP TO 2500 J/KG...AND BULK SHEAR IS 45-50 KTS...A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONG SUPERCELLS AND LARGE HAIL. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015 AN ACTIVE PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT STAYING INTACT OVER THE CWA. WHILE MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY IN THE TIMING/PLACEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES...PERSISTENT LEE TROUGHING AND PERIODIC LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION EACH AFTN/EVE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE EVENT APPEARS TO BE WED EVENING WITH EXCELLENT CONVERGENCE AND EASTERLY UPSLOPE NEAR THE SFC. THE GFS SUGGESTS DEW POINTS IN THE 50S ALONG/EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH SBCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1500-2500 J/KG. STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP BOOST 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES TO 40+ KTS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...SO SEVERE CONVECTION COULD VERY WELL BE A HAZARD. BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG IT TAKES TO ERODE THE CAP WITH WARM AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST. GENERALLY A TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONAL WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. FRIDAY COULD BE RATHER WARM WITH GFS/ECM H7 TEMPS IN THE 16-18 DEG C RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BENEATH FLAT RIDGING. LATEST MEX GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPPER 80S INTO THE MID 90S FROM CYS TO SNY... BUT HARD TO SAY HOW MUCH AFTERNOON CU WILL IMPACT HIGHS. CONTINUED TO TREND WARMER IN THIS PATTERN. THINK WE WILL STILL HAVE AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AROUND ON THU/FRI...BUT STRONG CAPPING IS LIKELY WITH SUCH WARM THERMAL PROFILES. KEPT THINGS ISOLATED FOR THE TIME BEING. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1101 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015 LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING STORMS WEAKENING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL AID IN UPSLOPING STRATUS AND POSSIBLY FOG...ESPECIALLY OUT IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. USED LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE FOR TIMING OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. STRATUS COULD PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING. WILL TRY TO NAIL DOWN DISSIPATION TIME ON THE 12Z TAFS. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015 NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AFTER A COOLER DAY ON MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 20-30 PERCENT TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ZF LONG TERM...CLH AVIATION...GCC FIRE WEATHER...ZF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
401 AM MDT WED JUN 17 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT WED JUN 16 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL COLORADO WITH CONTINUED ASSOCIATED SHOWERS OVER SUMMIT AND PARK COUNTIES. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EAST THIS MORNING EXPECT SOME DRYING OVER MOUNTAINS AND FRONT RANGE. OVERALL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE LOWER TODAY AS INTEGRATED PW VALUES HAVE DROPPED A COUPLE TENTHS IN THE PAST 24 HOURS OVER THE FRONT RANGE. THERE WAS SOME FOG POTENTIAL AS INDICATED BY NAM AND LESSER EXTENT THE RAP BUT APPEARS NAM WAS WAY OVERDONE WITH MOISTURE THIS AM AS DEWPOINTS ARE SUPPOSED TO BE IN THE LOWER 60S NOW AND THROUGH THE DAY. EXTENSIVE MID/HI CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF METAR PLOTS TONIGHT RESULTING IN HARD TIME SEEING IF THERE IS ANY FOG/STRATUS ON THE PLAINS. NON-NWS SURFACE PLOTS INDICATE THERE IS ENOUGH T/TD SPREADS THAT WON`T SEE MUCH FOG THIS AM AND WON`T INCLUDE IN ZONES. WITH OVERZEALOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM NAM WILL DISCOUNT THAT MODEL AS IT INDICATED UP TO 3000J/KG OF CAPE. RAP SEEMED BETTER WITH 700-1500J/KG BASED ON DEWPOINTS FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ON THE PLAINS WHICH LOOKS MORE REASONABLE. EVEN LATEST HRRR ONLY HAS ISOLATED COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF PALMER DIVIDE AND CYS RIDGE. ALSO AREA WILL BE UNDER WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. WILL LOWER POPS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING TO MAINLY ISOLATED COVERAGE HIGHEST CHANCES REMAINING ON EAST SLOPES AND HIGHER TERRAIN. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT WED JUN 16 2015 DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS STILL ON TRACK THURSDAY AND BEYOND WITH A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR WEST. NOT UNCOMMON FOR A STRONG... NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER RIDGE/HEAT DOME TO ENVELOP COLORADO AND THE SOUTHWEST U.S. DURING THE LATTER HALF OF JUNE PRIOR TO THE UNSET OF THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON. LATEST MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE INDICATES A STRING OF 90 PLUS DEGREE DAYS FOR THE PLAINS BEGINNING THURSDAY. WARMEST AIR ALOFT COINCIDENT WITH THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS OVER THE FCST AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...EQUATING TO HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS BOTH DAYS. DO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER TO GET IN THE WAY. ALTHOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT A STRAY GUSTY HIGH BASED T-STORM OR TWO OVR AND NEAR THE FRONT RANGE WITH ALL OF THE SOIL MOISTURE AROUND AND STEEP AFTERNOON LAPSE RATES. SEE THIS MAINLY HAPPENING ON FRIDAY. SUNDAY...MAY BE EVEN WARMER WITH A 596 DECAMETER RIDGE SQUARELY OVER COLORADO. HOWEVER A COUPLE OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL SHOW A WEAK MID-LEVEL PERTABATION ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND BRUSHING THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF COLORADO LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. AROUND THE SAME TIME THEY ALSO SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT OR SFC TROUGH BACKING INTO THE NERN CORNER OF THE STATE ON MOIST EAST-SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW. ITS POSSIBLE A FEW T-STORMS COULD FIRE ALONG THIS SFC BNDRY/THETA-E AXIS AS THE UPPER AIR FEATURE PASSING BY. OTHERWISE SUNDAY LOOKS DRY AND QUITE WARM FOR THE REST OF THE CWA. GOOD DAY FOR A BBQ. FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SEE LITTLE IN THE WAY CHANGE WITH THE UPPER RIDGE KEEPING ITS GRIP ON THE CENTRAL CONUS. THAT MEANS TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AND PRECIP CHANCES NEAR ZERO BOTH DAYS. HOWEVER...THE 00Z EUROPEAN MODEL INDICATES THE START OF A WETTER PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR TUESDAY. IT SHOWS THE CORE OF THE UPPER RIDGE QUICKLY SHIFTING WELL EAST OF COLORADO ON TUESDAY WHICH OPENS THE ROCKY MTN REGION TO A MOIST SOUTHERLY TROPICAL FLOW. LOOKS RATHER MONSOONISH. THE WAY THIS YEAR HAS BEEN GOING WITH EL NINO STRENGTHENING IN THE PACIFIC...FEEL THE NEED TO INTRODUCE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF T-STORMS MAINLY FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY LATE TUESDAY AND LOWER TEMPS BY A DEG OR TWO FROM THOSE EXPECTED THE DAY BEFORE TO ACCOUNT FOR A POSSIBLE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT WED JUN 16 2015 WILL DOWNPLAY FOG THREAT AND REMOVE FG/LOW CLOUDS THIS AM WITH CONSIDERABLE MID CLOUD COVERAGE AND WEAK DRAINAGE WINDS IN PLACE. AS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY...WEAK RIDGING WILL MOVE IN BUT STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT. MOST OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE STORMS ANCHORED ON EAST SLOPES AND PALMER DIVIDE. GIVEN EXPECTED MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE WILL REMOVE THE TEMPO GROUPS FROM UPCOMING TERMINAL FORECASTS. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT WED JUN 16 2015 A BIT DRIER AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE OF STORMS TODAY WHILE STORMS WILL BE MOVING AT A DECENT CLIP WILL RESULT IN LOW CHANCES FOR FLASH FLOODING TODAY. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FLOOD WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN LONG TERM...BAKER AVIATION...ENTREKIN HYDROLOGY...ENTREKIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
356 AM MDT WED JUN 17 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 356 AM MDT WED JUN 17 2015 THE ATMOSPHERE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO DRY OUT TODAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOULD DROP THROUGHOUT THE DAY...REACHING JUST ABOUT A HALF INCH BY 00Z ACCORDING TO FORECAST SOUNDING. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE RELEGATED TO THE MOUNTAINS OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MAX TEMPS SHOULD HIT THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S AT MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS. AFTER A CLEAR NIGHT...THURSDAY SHOULD BRING ANOTHER DRY AND HOT DAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 0.4 AND 0.5 INCH ACCORDING TO THE FORECAST KGJT SOUNDING...WITH EVEN LESS CUMULUS BUILDUP OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE GFS STILL SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING OVER AND THROUGH THE RIDGE...WITH NO HINT OF THIS FEATURE IN THE NAM. SINCE PWAT IN THE 00Z KSLC SOUNDING WAS DOWN TO 0.59 INCH AT 00Z AND PROJECTED TO LOWER TO BETWEEN 0.3 AND 0.4 IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS...BELIEVE THE DRYING WILL BE REAL FOR THURSDAY. SO HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS ONLY ALONG THE EASTERN CWA BORDER OVER THE MOUNTAINS. NEITHER MODEL RUN AT 00Z SHOWS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING AS IN PREVIOUS RUNS...SO HAVE DECREASED AFTERNOON WINDS AS WELL. TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO RISE WITH MAXES IN THE LOWER AND MID 90S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 356 AM MDT WED JUN 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OFFSHORE FROM SRN AND BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE EAST AND BE POSITIONED OVER NEW MEXICO BY NEXT TUESDAY. THIS ESSENTIALLY SHUTS DOWN ANY POTENTIAL MOISTURE PLUMES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. DRY AND HOT WEATHER (NOT QUITE JULY HOT) WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE IS ONE SMALL CAVEAT...ONCE HIGH PRESSURE REACHES NEW MEXICO... THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BY NEXT TUESDAY THANKS TO STEEP AFTERNOON LAPSE RATES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1155 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015 ACTIVE TSRA ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY OF KRIL-KEGE WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 08Z-09Z PER HRRR MODEL. ONCE THIS ACTIVITY ENDS...THEN NO TAF SITES SHOULD BE IMPACTED BY ANY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA MAY FORM EAST OF KEGE-KASE- KGUC-KTEX BETWEEN 18Z-02Z. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...NONE. UT...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CC LONG TERM...PF AVIATION...PF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1155 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 819 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015 UPDATED TO REMOVE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HEADLINES. STORMS HAVE SUBSIDED AND THE ONLY MODERATE STORMS STILL ACTIVE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE WATCH AREA. UPDATE ISSUED AT 710 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015 THE CHANCE OF STRONG STORMS PULLED EAST OF DAGGETT COUNTY UT SO REMOVED DAGGETT COUNTY FROM THE WATCH AREA. STORMS SHOULD FOCUS OVER RIO BLANCO AND EASTERN GARFIELD COUNTIES THROUGH 04Z. THE FLATTOPS AND THE PICEANCE BASIN ALONG THE RIO BLANCO AND GARFIELD COUNTY LINES WILL BE THE PRIME AREA FOR STRONG STORMS. SEVERAL MODERATELY STRONG STORMS WILL PASS OVER I-70 BETWEEN SILT AND VAIL. UPDATE ISSUED AT 457 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015 STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS NW CO AND ESPECIALLY NE UT. SEVERE STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. ONE FUNNEL CLOUD WAS REPORTED AT 155 PM IN EASTERN DAGGETT COUNTY. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES ACROSS DAGGETT...MOFFAT AND ROUTT COUNTIES UNTIL 10 PM. SIGNIFICANT STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER UINTAH COUNTY AS WELL AS RIO BLANCO...GARFIELD...MESA...NORTHERN DELTA...EAGLE AND PITKIN COUNTIES. UPDATE ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR DAGGETT...MOFFAT...AND ROUTT COUNTIES UNTIL 10PM THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND WINDS GREATER THAN 58 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. PLEASE REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT. && .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015 SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SWEPT EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AHEAD OF PAIR OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WHICH PASSED OVER THE AREA. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY AROUND MIDDAY ...DAYTIME HEATING GENERATED ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. INGREDIENTS REMAINED IN PLACE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH AND A STRONG CELL HAD FORMED OVER THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS. WEAK DRYING AT MID- LEVELS WILL BRING PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVELS DOWN A BIT SO EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER SUNSET. ECMWF/NAM/GFS ALL INDICATED POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OVER THE CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEASONABLE. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ADVECT INTO THE CWA FROM THE WEST IN A WESTERLY FLOW ON WEDNESDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND 0.5 INCHES. THERE ARE A FEW RIPPLES IN THE FLOW AND ENOUGH MOISTURE ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF OUR CWA TO GENERATE SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWER VALLEYS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY BUT THINKING THE MODELS ARE WANTING TO DRY OUT THE ATMOSPHERE A LITTLE TOO QUICKLY GIVEN THE INCREASED STORM ACTIVITY THIS MORNING WHEN MODELS WERE TRENDING DRIER FOR THE MOST PART. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT WITH NO REAL FORCING TO KEEP THINGS GOING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOWLY WARMING TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015 FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO WANT TO DRY OUT THE ATMOSPHERE EVEN FURTHER WITH PW VALUES DECREASING TO 0.4 INCHES WITH 0.5 LINGERING ALONG THE DIVIDE. THE GFS INDICATES A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED VORT MAXES MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN THE ADDITIONAL FORCING AND LINGERING MOISTURE AND THE THINKING THAT MODELS ARE A BIT TOO QUICK IN DRYING THINGS OUT...BELIEVE THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. INCREASED POPS ON THURSDAY AS A RESULT. LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO SUFFICIENT WITH VALUES APPROACHING 9.5 C/KM. SOME ISOLATED STORMS MAY DRIFT OR FORM OVER VALLEYS LATER IN THE DAY GIVEN THE ADDITIONAL FORCING BUT VALLEYS SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR THE MOST PART. GIVEN THE DRIER LOW LEVELS...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY FRIDAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SEEN. AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO MAY POP OVER THE SAN JUANS WHERE SOME MOISTURE MAY LINGER...BUT THINK BY THIS POINT MOISTURE WILL BE MINIMAL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OUT OF THE PACIFIC NW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SATURDAY WITH THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THIS SYSTEM SKIMMING THE EXTREME NORTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA AS THE JET DIPS SOUTH OF THE CO-WY BORDER. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS UP NORTH WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS BUT NOTHING MUCH ELSE AS THE BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING REMAIN WELL NORTH OF OUR CWA. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS THIS WEEKEND AND REMAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO MUCH DRIER AIR WITH PW VALUES LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES AND TEMPERATURES WARMING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL VALUES WITH 7H TEMPS NEAR 20C FROM SAT THRU TUES. MANY LOWER VALLEYS WILL SEE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH SOME LOCATIONS, PARTICULARLY IN SE UTAH, SEEING TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT. NUDGED MAX TEMPS UPWARDS IN THIS DIRECTION DURING THIS PERIOD AS BC GUIDANCE STILL COMING IN A BIT TOO COOL. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1155 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015 ACTIVE TSRA ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY OF KRIL-KEGE WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 08Z-09Z PER HRRR MODEL. ONCE THIS ACTIVITY ENDS...THEN NO TAF SITES SHOULD BE IMPACTED BY ANY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA MAY FORM EAST OF KEGE-KASE- KGUC-KTEX BETWEEN 18Z-02Z. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...NONE. UT...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...CC SHORT TERM...NL/MDA LONG TERM....MDA AVIATION...PF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1130 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015 ...MORE STORMS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY... MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE STRONG STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR. CURRENTLY...MODELS HAVE DONE A REASONABLE JOB DEPICTING THE HEAVIEST STORM ACTIVITY OVER LAS ANIMAS COUNTY AND SRN ZONES. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE HI RES SOLUTIONS FOR THIS EVENING THOUGH...GIVEN POOR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY AND DIFFERENCES BETWN THE MODELS. THE HRRR...FOR EXAMPLE...HAS ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH EL PASO AND PUEBLO COUNTIES LATE THIS EVENING...WHILE THE WRF AND OTHER RUNS ARE DRY. THERE IS PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...AND THERE IS AT LEAST SOME SIGN OF A TRAILING SHORT WAVE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...MOVING INTO ERN UT AND WY AT THIS TIME. SO...SUSPECT THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE WAVES OF SCT CONVECTION THROUGH THIS EVE...ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN. AFTER 06Z...SHOULD SEE THINGS QUIET DOWN. TOMORROW...ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED...BUT IT SHOULD BE A BIT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WRN SECTIONS WILL LIKELY ONLY SEE ISOLD ACTIVITY AS DRY AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN FROM THE W AND SW WED AFTERNOON. BULK SHEARS WILL BE RUNNING 30-40 KTS...AND CAPE AT 1500-2500 J/KG OVER THE PLAINS...SO SVR WX WILL BE A THREAT TOMORROW...PARTICULARLY OVER THE PALMER DVD AND FAR SERN PLAINS WHERE THESE VALUES WILL BE GREATEST. IN FACT...CAPE IN THESE AREAS IS HIGH ENOUGH THAT VERY LARGE HAIL COULD BE A CONCERN DEPENDING ON THE CONVECTIVE MODE WED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE. OTHER DILEMMA FOR TOMORROW WILL BE THE TEMPS. SO FAR TODAY...KPUB HAS NOT GOT OUT OF THE LOWER 80S...WHILE GUIDANCE WAS IN THE LOW 90S FOR TODAY. SO...NOT EXPECTING US TO GET INTO THE 90S TOMORROW EITHER. UPPER 80S MAY EVEN BE GENEROUS FOR THE LOWER ARKANSAS VALLEY. UNTIL WE DRY OUT LATE IN THE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND...GOING BELOW GUIDANCE BY AT LEAST 5 DEGREES SEEMS THE BEST BET. ROSE .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015 WED NIGHT A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACRS THE AREA IN THE NWRLY FLOW ALOFT...SPREADING SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM THE MTN AREAS...ACRS THE SERN PLAINS. BY LATE NIGHT THE DISTURBANCE WL EXIT THE STATE AND MOST...IF NOT ALL THE PCPN SHOULD END ACRS THE FORECAST AREA. THU AN UPR RIDGE WL BE OVR THE AREA AND ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE A LITTLE DRIER...THERE WL PROBABLY STILL BE SOME ISOLD TO SCT PCPN CHANCES OVR THE AREA. THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO ERN OK ON THU. THE GFS HAS SERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO SERN CO ON THU AND BRINGS WIDESPREAD PCPN THU NIGHT. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE NAM ONLY HAS SOME ISOLD PCPN OVR THE SERN PLAINS THU EVENING AND THEN DRY WX FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. THE ECMWF IS ALSO MORE MOIST THAN THE NAM. FOR NOW...WL JUST KEEP SOME ISOLD POPS OVR THE ERN PLAINS TO MATCH SURROUNDING FORECAST OFFICE AREAS...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE REMNANTS OF BILL. H7 TEMPS OVR THE AREA THU AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE FROM ABOUT 12C-19C WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S ACRS THE SERN PLAINS...WITH MOSTLY 80S IN THE HIGH VALLEYS. THIS WL RESULT IN CONTINUED HIGH ELEVATION SNOW MELT. ON FRI THE UPR RIDGE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO BE OVR SRN CA WITH FAIRLY LIGHT W TO NWRLY FLOW ALOFT...AND SOUTH TO SW FLOW LOW LEVEL FLOW OVR THE SERN PLAINS. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM ARE QUITE DRY OVR THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRI...WITH THE ECMWF HAVING A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME PCPN. WL KEEP THE MENTION OF SOME ISOLD POP OVR SOME OF THE MTNS...BUT WL GO WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. H7 TEMPS ACRS THE AREA ON FRI ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM ABOUT 16C- 20C...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN ON THU. HIGH TEMPS WL MOSTLY BE IN THE 90S ACRS THE SERN PLAINS...WITH 80S IN THE HIGH VALLEYS. SAT...A SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES FROM WY INTO THE PLAINS STATES...AND SENDS A FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO SERN CO. THE UPR RIDGE CENTER IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE OVR SRN CA AND WRN AZ. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR JUST SOME ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO WL KEEP JUST SOME ISOLD POPS OVR SOME OF THE MTN AREAS. H7 TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER ON SAT THAN ON FRI AND THUS TEMPS WL AGAIN BE QUITE WARM ACRS THE FORECAST AREA. ON SUN THE UPR HIGH CENTER SHIFTS TO NR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...KEEPING THE WEATHER MOSTLY DRY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPS. FOR MON AND TUE THE GFS HAS THE UPR HIGH CENTER OVR NM AND THE TX PANHANDLE WHICH KEEPS OUR WX MAINLY DRY AND WARM. THE ECMWF SHIFTS THE UPR HIGH CENTER EASTWARD AND BRINGS MSTR INTO THE AREA AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPR RIDGE. FOR NOW...WL KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY...WITH JUST SOME ISOLD POPS OVR THE MTNS AND WL CONTINUE WITH THE ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1124 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015 HAVE INCLUDED A VCTS MENTION AT KPUB 06Z-08Z AS A FEW TSRA DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE ARKANSAS VALLEY. DIDN`T INCLUDE A MENTION AT KCOS AS AIR MASS LOOKS SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE FARTHER NORTH...THOUGH A FEW SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE 06Z-07Z. HRRR SUGGESTS CONVECTION SHIFTS EAST TOWARD THE KS BORDER 08Z-10Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AT BOTH KPUB AND KCOS. AT KALS...RAIN NEAR THE TERMINAL EARLIER TUE AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY LEAVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOIST ENOUGH FOR SOME GROUND FOG AROUND SUNRISE WED...WITH BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS 12Z-15Z. WILL INCLUDE A VCTS ALL TAF SITES WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS TSRA FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY 18Z...THEN MOVE TO LOWER ELEVATIONS 20Z-21Z. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015 PER COORDINATION WITH LOCAL EM ACROSS OUR WRN ZONES...WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING ACROSS LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES THROUGH THIS EVENING. STREAM FLOWS ARE FALLING ACROSS THIS AREA...BUT COULD STILL SEE SOME LOCAL FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS DEPENDING ON THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING`S RAINFALL. GIVEN THAT THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT ACROSS THESE ZONES SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN AFTER THIS EVENING...PLAN IS TO ALLOW THESE WATCHES TO RUN THEIR COURSE AND EXPIRE WHEN SCHEDULED. THERE WILL STILL BE A LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT DEPENDING ON RAINFALL. SNOWMELT WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO KEEP THE ARKANSAS FLOWING QUITE STRONGLY IN THE NEAR TERM. AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS WILL BE REEVALUATED FOLLOWING THIS LATEST ROUND OF STORMS...BUT SHOULD SEE THINGS IMPROVE FROM A RAINFALL/QPF PERSPECTIVE BEGINNING TOMORROW. ROSE && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ058>063. && $$ SHORT TERM...ROSE LONG TERM...28 AVIATION...PETERSEN HYDROLOGY...ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
350 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 .DISCUSSION... ...LITTLE HEAT RELIEF NEXT FEW DAYS... TODAY-TONIGHT...DEEP EASTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH DEEP LAYER HIGH CENTERED TO OUR NORTH. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA SO THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL PUSH INLAND A LITTLE FASTER IN THE SOUTH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MODEL OUTPUT SHOW THAT CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE BOUNDARY IS WEST OF I-95. IN FACT...THERE IS NO INDICATION OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTH COAST EITHER. THE HRRR DOES SHOW SOME CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR (GFS HAS LITTLE AND POPS ARE 10 PERCENT OR LESS). WILL GO WITH SMALL POPS ACROSS THE INTERIOR IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE RIDGE POSITION SUGGESTS LATE DAY BOUNDARY COLLISIONS OCCURRING THERE. WITH LITTLE CONVECTION EXPECTED AND OCCURRING LATE...MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO NUDGE UP WITH SOME INTERIOR TEMPS REACHING 96-97 DEGREES AND HEAT INDICES IN THE LOW ONE HUNDREDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 70S...EXCEPT MOS IS INDICATING 77-78 DEGREES FROM METRO ORLANDO TO LAKE COUNTY (WHERE THE HOTTEST DAYTIME READINGS OCCUR). THU-FRI...LITTLE CHANGE OF DEEP LAYER RIDGE WITH HOT TEMPERATURES PERSISTING. SFC RIDGE AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL FL WILL PRODUCE A LIGHT S/SE FLOW WITH SEA BREEZE MOVING INLAND EACH DAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST TO MID 90S INLAND WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 100- 104 DEGREES. ISO/SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MAINLY BE LIMITED TO THE INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY BOUNDARY COLLISIONS NEAR TO WEST OF I-4 LATE AFT AND TOWARDS SUNSET. CONVECTION WILL DECREASE INTO THE LATE EVENING WITH RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY ENDING BY MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE LOW-MID 70S. SAT-TUE...MODELS SHOW MID LEVEL S/W...REMNANTS FROM BILL...SHIFTING EAST FROM CENTRAL U.S. TO MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE WEEKEND AND OFFSHORE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS ACTS TO SLIGHTLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTHWARD THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE. HOWEVER LITTLE CHANGE IN WX PATTERN EXPECTED WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUING AND SCATTERED AFT CONVECTION MAINLY LIMITED TO INLAND LOCATIONS EACH DAY. && .AVIATION...MAINLY VFR WITH LOW CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON STORMS AT THE INTERIOR TERMINALS. && .MARINE... TODAY-TONIGHT...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA WILL PRODUCE A MOSTLY GENTLE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST BREEZE. THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL INCREASE SPEEDS ALONG THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN OFFSHORE IN THE NORTH THROUGH EVENING...BUT STILL BELOW 15 KNOTS. SEAS 1-3 FEET. LITTLE SHOWER COVERAGE INDICATED. THU-SUN...SFC RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A GENTLE S/SE BREEZE GENERALLY PERSISTING OVER THE WATERS. EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP EACH AFT WITH WINDS BECOMING E/SE NEAR THE COAST UP TO 10-13 KTS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 1-3 FEET. THREAT FOR OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS REMAINS VERY LOW AS AFT CONVECTION WILL MAINLY BE LIMITED TO INLAND LOCATIONS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 92 75 92 75 / 10 10 20 10 MCO 95 76 95 75 / 20 10 30 20 MLB 89 76 90 75 / 10 10 10 10 VRB 90 75 91 74 / 10 10 10 10 LEE 96 78 95 77 / 20 20 40 20 SFB 96 77 94 76 / 20 10 30 20 ORL 95 77 95 76 / 20 10 30 20 FPR 89 73 91 73 / 10 10 10 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...LASCODY LONG TERM....WEITLICH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1135 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 THE 01Z/8PM SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A SLIGHT MOVEMENT OF THE STATIONARY FRONT TO THE NORTH INTO OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAINFALL SOUTH OF I-70, THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL CAUSE SHOWERS TO OVERSPREAD AREAS SOUTH OF I-72 OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE FRONT MAY REACH AS FAR NORTH AS I-74 BY 12Z. HRRR AND RAP OUTPUT INDICATE MOST OF THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN S OF I-72 IN THE SIDE OF THE FRONT WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO 70F. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE, BASED ON THE WETTING RAINS THIS EVENING AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. CLOUD COVER WILL THICKEN NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT, KEEPING LOWS ON THE MILD SIDE WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS. LIGHT FOG WILL INCREASE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT WHERE WINDS BECOME LIGHT LATER TONIGHT. UPDATES THIS EVENING WERE DONE TO THE POP AND WEATHER GRIDS TO SLOW DOWN THE NORTHWARD PUSH OF RAIN, WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS. UPDATED INFO IS ALREADY AVAILABLE. && .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 AFTERNOON SURFACE DATA SHOWS BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF IL. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...UNSTABLE AIR WITH MUCAPE OF 3000 CONTINUES TO FEED FROM MO AND TO THE SOUTH (AS SEEN IN THE MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY). MODELS MOVE THE PCPN NORTH AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTH WITH THE APPROACHING ND UPPER WAVE. THE RESULT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH HEAVY RAIN PRODUCTION AND A CONTINUED FLASH FLOOD THREAT OVERNIGHT. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 WET WEATHER AND POTENTIAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE IT STILL APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A DRY DAY BEFORE MONDAY, THERE ARE STILL PERIODS THAT APPEAR FAVORED FOR MORE WIDESPREAD & HEAVIER RAINFALL, AS WELL AS VICE VERSA. THE BIGGEST FLY IN THE OINTMENT REMAINS THE DISPOSITION OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL. THERE IS STILL A NOTABLE SPREAD IN THE TIMING/TRACK OF THE SYSTEM, PRECIPITATION SPREAD AROUND THE REMNANT CIRCULATION, AS WELL WITH INTRA-MODEL RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. THE MOST NOTABLE MODEL TREND THAT IS AGREED UPON HAS BEEN FOR A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE REMNANTS, WITH SOME OF THE SLOWEST SOLUTIONS (12 ECMWF FOR EXAMPLE) KEEPING THE ASSOCIATED RAIN THREAT AROUND WELL INTO SATURDAY. THE GENERALLY W-E ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STALLED OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WILL LIFT BACK NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY PUSHING EAST INTO THE PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BOOST SHOWER/STORM CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL THE WAVE PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN THE FORECAST ARE SHOULD SEE A RELATIVE LULL IN THE RAIN THREAT, LIKE TODAY, UNTIL THE REMNANTS OF BOB APPROACH AND EVENTUALLY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE BEST FORCING AND RAINFALL THREAT WITH THE REMNANTS ARRIVING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF AROUND 2" OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL THE TROPICAL REMNANTS DEPART SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ANYWHERE A SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM GETS GOING AND/OR WHERE NUMEROUS RAIN EVENTS OCCUR. ON THE UPSIDE, THE TROPICAL-LIKE AIRMASS AND ASSOCIATED WEAK LAPSE RATE, AS WELL AS MODEST SHEAR PROFILES, ARE NOT CONDUCIVE TO MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ANOTHER BRIEF LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL FOLLOW THE REMNANTS OF BILL UNTIL A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT, COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL BE ABLE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA, LIKELY RESULTING IN A DRY START TO THE NEXT WORK WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 A SHORTWAVE ADVANCING FROM SOUTHERN MISSOURI ALONG THE FRONT LIFTING NORTH FROM I-70 WILL TRIGGER MORE WIDESPREAD RAINS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THE REST OF THE NIGHT. SPI ALREADY HAS STEADY -RA, AND THOSE CONDITIONS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINAL SITES TONIGHT. EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD AFFECT THE SOUTHERN TAFS OF SPI AND DEC. PONDING OF WATER ON TRAVEL SURFACES COULD DEVELOP. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR LATER TONIGHT, WITH LIFR 400FT STILL INDICATED FOR BMI. VIS MAY DIP TO IFR TOWARD SUNRISE, IN LIGHTER WINDS AND HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS. A BREAK IN THE RAINS IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE WEDNESDAY MORNING. STORMS COULD REDEVELOP WED AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ALONG ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION LATER TONIGHT. WE KEPT VCTS WED MID AFTN TO EARLY EVE AS A RESULT. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM EAST TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES NORTH OF EACH TERMINAL SITE. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 10KT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR ILZ052-054>057- 061>063-066>068-071>073. && $$ UPDATE...SHIMON SHORT TERM...GOETSCH LONG TERM...BAK AVIATION...SHIMON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1150 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 PLEASANT DAY IN STORE ACROSS MOST OF THE DVN CWA WITH AN EAST WIND BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA...COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. PRECIPITABLE WATERS WERE LESS THAN AN INCH AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. HOWEVER...IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES DEWS WERE IN THE MID 60S AND PWATS A BIT OVER AN INCH. FARTHER SOUTH THE REALLY HIGH PWATS WERE LURKING WITH OVER 2 INCHES AS YOU GET DOWN TOWARDS ST. LOUIS. TO THE NORTH DEWPOINTS WERE ONLY IN THE 40S OVER PORTIONS OF MN EASTWARD TO MI. 3 PM TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S IN THE CWA WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...OUR FAR SOUTH WAS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A LARGER CLOUD SHIELD THAT WAS COVERING THE MID MS VALLEY. THIS WAS AHEAD OF LANDFALLING TROPICAL STORM BILL IN SE TX. MOSAIC MIDWEST RADAR LOOPS INDICATE A LINE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...FROM SE KS TO CENTRAL MO AND INTO SOUTHERN IL. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE SHORT TERM. TONIGHT...DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO OUR NORTHEAST CWA ON EAST WINDS WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 40S FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT. IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA DEWS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 60S. OPERATIONAL MODELS INCLUDING THE HI-RES MESO HRRR INDICATE WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT DEVELOPING IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AS A LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES A BIT. THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH FORCING AND INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SO I WILL HAVE HIGH END CHANCE POPS. DRIER AIR FARTHER NORTH SHOULD DISSIPATE ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY TRYING TO WORK NORTHWARD. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH AT MOST LOCATIONS IN OUR FAR SOUTH. OUR FAR SOUTH COULD GET LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. CLOUD COVER WILL PROGRESS NORTHWARD AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALSO SHIFTS A BIT NORTHWARD. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN FAR NW IL TO THE MID 60S FAR SOUTH. WEDNESDAY...WEAK LOW LEVEL JET VEERS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY WITH THE FORCING GRADUALLY PUSHING AWAY FROM THE DVN CWA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DRY DAY IN OUR NORTHERN CWA WITH CHANCE POPS IN OUR FAR SOUTH CLOSER TO THE NEARLY STALLED FRONT WELL TO OUR SOUTH. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE AREA REMAINS HIGHLY VULNERABLE TO CONTINUED RIVER FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING DUE TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST WEEK. FROM MID TO LATE WEEK...THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL MOVING INTO THE TX GULF COAST...WHICH MODEL CONSENSUS NOW HAS CURVING NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THEN TRACKING E-NE ACROSS CENTRAL MO INTO SOUTHERN IL FRI AND SAT...WHICH WOULD SPARE THE FORECAST AREA FROM HEAVY RAINFALL. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA WED NIGHT WILL WARRANT LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT QPF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS THEN LAYS OUT A BOUNDARY FROM NORTHERN IL NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND RETURNING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REQUIRE KEEPING AT LEAST LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PASSING LOW THROUGHOUT. OVER THE REST OF THE AREA...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES IS SHOWN SENDING A BACKDOOR COOL FRONT AND A SURGE OF E-NE WINDS THU NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING IN LOWER HUMIDITY AND THEN LIMIT HIGHS TO THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 FRI...AFTER ANOTHER DAY OF LOWER 80S THU. SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...ONCE THE WEAKENING REMNANTS OF BILL PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A PREFRONTAL STRONG W-SW SURGE OF VERY WARM...MOIST AIR OUT AHEAD FEEDING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING BACK HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND THETAE ADVECTION ALOFT THAT MAY FUEL AN OVERNIGHT MCS WITH THE PASSING FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT...WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST ARE PLACED. THIS WILL ALSO BE THE NEXT GREATEST THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH SHOULD FOLLOW SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY WEATHER OR LOW PRECIPITATION EVENTS THAT WILL ALLOW SURFACE CONDITIONS TO DRY SOME AND RIVERS TO BEGIN RECEDING. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL FEATURE A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH THE REGION ALONG THE EDGE OF THE STRONGER WESTERLIES WITH WARM AIR BUILDING OVER THE PLAINS AND AVAILABLE GULF MOISTURE. THIS RING OF FIRE TYPE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT PERIODIC MCS ACTIVITY OVER...OR POSSIBLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 VFR CLOUD DECK...LOWERING TO MVFR INTO EARLY WED MORNING NORTH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACRS MO. ALSO...ISOLATED TO SCTRD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH INTO WED MORNING...BUT DRY AIR ON EASTERLY LLVL WINDS MAY LIMIT THE BETTER COVERAGE TO ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80. SOME CHC FOR 3-5SM VSBY FOG AT BRL IN HIGHER SFC DPT POOL TOWARD DAWN. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS BY WED AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING ACRS MN INTO NORTHWESTERN IA...ALSO MOST CIGS LIFTING TO VFR BY THEN AS WELL. ANOTHER CHC FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCTRD SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING IN TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. ..12.. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HAASE SHORT TERM...HAASE LONG TERM...SHEETS AVIATION...12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
341 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 ...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 OUTFLOW FROM THE CONVECTION IN NORTHEAST COLORADO EARLY THIS EVENING HAD PUSHED AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS SCOTT CITY BUT SEEMS TO HAVE LOST ITS STEAM. SURFACE OBS AT NORTON AND PHILLIPSBURG SHOW AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THAT AREA. WOULD THINK THAT BY SUNRISE, THIS BOUNDARY WILL HAVE PUSHED SOUTH INTO THE HAYS AREA. THE SHORT TERM HRRR AND RAP MODELS SHOW THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHING AS FAR SOUTH AS A HAYS TO HUGOTON LINE BY LATE MORNING BEFORE STARTING TO WASH OUT AND RETREAT NORTHWARD. NOT SURE THAT WE WILL SEE ANY CONVECTION FIRING IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY GIVEN THE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES BUT WILL LEAVE ANY CHANCES FROM THAT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. IN RESPONSE TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SHORT WAVE, THE MODELS HINT AT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OFF OF THE NORTHEAST COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND MOVING POSSIBLY MOVING INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING. THE GOING FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS. ANY STORMS THAT MAKE IT INTO WESTERN KANSAS SHOULD DIE LATER THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. WILL KEEP SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS DRY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE MODELS KEEP RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. BILL CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES TODAY ACROSS THE BOARD AS WARMER THE COLUMN CONTINUES TO WARM AND DEEP MIXING IS EXPECTED TODAY. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 ON THURSDAY, THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL WILL BE LOCATED OVER NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA, WITH UPSLOPE, SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER WESTERN KANSAS. WEAK NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER WESTERN KANSAS, COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S, WEAK CAPPING AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY LEAD TO LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY OVER FAR WESTERN KANSAS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED WEAK UPPER LEVEL WINDS, THESE STORMS MAY NOT BE SEVERE, BUT SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW, TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. ON FRIDAY, LEE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP A LITTLE MORE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS, BUT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY WEAK AND GIVEN THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, ANYTHING MORE THAN JUST AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS NOT EXPECTED. HIGHS OUGHT TO REACH INTO THE MID 90S ALONG THE COLORADO STATE LINE, WITH UPPER 80S IN CENTRAL KANSAS. SATURDAY WILL BE A WARMER DAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PROGRESSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, ALONG WITH SURFACE TROUGHING OVER WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN`T BE RULED OUT ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH. HIGHS SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE MID 90S, WITH SOME UPPER 90S ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT OVER WESTERN KANSAS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WHERE A LOW TO MID LEVEL DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WILL EXIST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S AND POSSIBLY NEAR 100 OVER WEST CENTRAL KANSAS, WITH MAINLY MID 90S FARTHER SOUTHEAST. LOWS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN THE VARIOUS MODELS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM A DYING CLUSTER OF STORMS IN NORTHWEST KANSAS SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE HAYS AND GARDEN CITY TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A SWITCH IN THE WINDS TO A WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS SMALL CHANCE FOR MVFR VSBYS TO DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING AT THE TAF SITES BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MENTIONING IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 87 64 87 65 / 10 10 10 10 GCK 88 62 89 65 / 10 20 10 20 EHA 89 63 92 64 / 10 30 20 20 LBL 88 63 88 64 / 10 10 10 10 HYS 89 64 87 65 / 10 10 10 10 P28 85 66 89 68 / 10 10 10 10 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GERARD LONG TERM...FINCH AVIATION...GERARD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
304 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 ...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND SHORT TERM DISCUSSION... .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH KANSAS SITTING UNDER THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STRONGER WESTERLIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING EAST OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WAS LIKELY HELPING SUSTAIN AN MCS AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND FAR NORTHERN KANSAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS ALSO SHOWING THE HINT OF ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING. A WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY 500 MILLIBAR TROUGH CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED FROM OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL HAVE BEEN TRACKING NORTHWARD THROUGH TEXAS OVERNIGHT JUST TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 OUTFLOW FROM THE CONVECTION IN NORTHEAST COLORADO EARLY THIS EVENING HAD PUSHED AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS SCOTT CITY BUT SEEMS TO HAVE LOST ITS STEAM. SURFACE OBS AT NORTON AND PHILLIPSBURG SHOW AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THAT AREA. WOULD THINK THAT BY SUNRISE, THIS BOUNDARY WILL HAVE PUSHED SOUTH INTO THE HAYS AREA. THE SHORT TERM HRRR AND RAP MODELS SHOW THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHING AS FAR SOUTH AS A HAYS TO HUGOTON LINE BY LATE MORNING BEFORE STARTING TO WASH OUT AND RETREAT NORTHWARD. NOT SURE THAT WE WILL SEE ANY CONVECTION FIRING IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY GIVEN THE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES BUT WILL LEAVE ANY CHANCES FROM THAT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. IN RESPONSE TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SHORT WAVE, THE MODELS HINT AT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OFF OF THE NORTHEAST COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND MOVING POSSIBLY MOVING INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING. THE GOING FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS. ANY STORMS THAT MAKE IT INTO WESTERN KANSAS SHOULD DIE LATER THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. WILL KEEP SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS DRY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE MODELS KEEP RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. BILL CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES TODAY ACROSS THE BOARD AS WARMER THE COLUMN CONTINUES TO WARM AND DEEP MIXING IS EXPECTED TODAY. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 IMMEDIATE FORECAST CONCERN WAS WHAT TO DO WITH POPS IN THE TRANSITION PERIOD BETWEEN THE SHORT AND LONG TERM FORECAST SECTIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DECIDED TO USE THE WRF-ARW AS A BASELINE FOR POP PLACEMENT. HAVE A FEELING THAT CONVECTION WON`T MAKE IT THAT FAR EAST EXCEPT ACROSS EXTREME FAR WEST KANSAS EXTENDING TO NORTHWEST KANSAS. REASON FOR THIS IS THAT MUCH OF THE AREA IS IN A WEAKNESS IN STEERING WINDS BETWEEN SYNOPTIC FLOW TO THE NORTH AND T.S. BILL. HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS MORTON TO TREGO COUNTIES, AND THAT MIGHT BE A BIT AGGRESSIVE. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH, THE NORMALLY WET NMM CORE IS DRY FOR THE REGION. WITH MODERATE CAPE AND WEAK BULK SHEAR, SEVERE WEATHER IS PROBABLY NOT LIKELY, HOWEVER, THE THERMO PROFILE WILL BE WELL MIXED, SO MARGINALLY SEVERE DOWNDRAFTS AND SMALL HAIL COULD BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BETTER CHANCES ARE THAT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST OR WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WITH A FROPA, SOME STORMS ARE POSSIBLE; HOWEVER, MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER AND KEEPING MUCH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR TEMPERATURES, WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AS 850-HPA TEMPS CLIMB THROUGH THE LONG TERM DOMAIN. WOULD NOT RULE OUT MID TO UPPER 90S BY NEXT WEEK, WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH ECE MOS GUIDANCE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM A DYING CLUSTER OF STORMS IN NORTHWEST KANSAS SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE HAYS AND GARDEN CITY TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A SWITCH IN THE WINDS TO A WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS SMALL CHANCE FOR MVFR VSBYS TO DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING AT THE TAF SITES BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MENTIONING IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 87 64 85 65 / 10 10 10 10 GCK 88 62 89 65 / 10 20 10 20 EHA 89 63 92 64 / 10 30 20 20 LBL 88 63 88 64 / 10 10 10 10 HYS 89 64 87 65 / 10 10 10 10 P28 85 66 89 68 / 10 10 10 10 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GERARD SHORT TERM...GERARD LONG TERM...SUGDEN AVIATION...GERARD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
355 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY...WASHED OUT BOUNDARY LYING OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH HIGH HUMIDITY AND MILD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IS LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTHWEST MOVING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE OHIO VALLEY...THOUGH DESTINED TO NEVER GET HERE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE SPAWNED OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY THANKS IN PART TO THAT WEAK SFC BOUNDARY. WHILE THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE IS MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING...A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL GOING STRONG OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION AND ACROSS THE BORDER INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA AND ILLINOIS. LOCALLY...TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY UNIFORM IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S ACROSS THE CWA WITH DEWPOINTS A DEGREE OR SO LOWER IN MOST SPOTS WHILE WINDS ARE LIGHT. PATCHY FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...IS NOTED AT JKL AND IN SOME OF THE WEB CAMS...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY OR SPS ATTM. BUILDING CLOUD COVER FROM THE NEARBY FRONT AND STORMS TO THE WEST SHOULD HELP LIMIT ITS IMPACT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE OHIO RIVER BASICALLY ITS NORTHERN EDGE. TO THE SOUTHWEST...THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM BILL ARE SHOWN MOVING FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS TO THE OZARKS BY 00Z FRIDAY. ALONG THE TOP OF THE RIDGE A TRAIN OF MINOR ENERGY WAVES WILL RIPPLE PAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THURSDAY HELPING TO SUPPRESS THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE...WITH SOME ASSISTANCE FROM BILL/S REMNANT CIRCULATION APPROACHING LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS FORECAST WILL BE DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE FEATURES... THOUGH...SO HAVE FAVORED RADAR TRENDS AND THE LATEST HRRR FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST ALONG WITH THE HIGH RESOLUTION NAM12 FOR THE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY PORTIONS. THE SAME INGREDIENTS THAT PRODUCED STORMS...A COUPLE OF WHICH WERE SEVERE...YESTERDAY WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY AND THURSDAY TO FUEL STORM DEVELOPMENT. THESE COMPONENTS ARE...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE AIR...PWS NEAR 2 INCHES...AND INSTABILITY WITH CAPES TO 3000 J/KG BY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...THE LAPSE RATES WILL BE A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. ACCORDINGLY...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR THE REST. ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT...THOUGH...WILL BE THE REMAINS OF THE ONGOING STORMS TO THE WEST. THE HRRR TRIES TO TAKE THE CORE OF THESE OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...BUT THAT PROGRESS IS IN DOUBT GIVEN RADAR TRENDS AND THE NAM12 SOLUTION. WHAT DOES HAPPEN WITH THESE STORMS WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT EFFECT ON OUR INSTABILITY LATER THIS MORNING DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUN CAN GET IN HERE BEFORE THE CLOUDS...OR REMAINING CONVECTIVE CELLS...FROM THE WEST MOVE INTO THE JKL CWA. AT WORST...THIS COULD DELAY THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER STORMS UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE THREAT WILL CERTAINLY REMAIN. FOR THIS...WILL CONTINUE TO HIT IT IN THE HWO AS WELL AS ADDING A HEADLINE TO THE WEB/PARTNER E-MAIL. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINS. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIURNALLY WANE TONIGHT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AGAIN ANTICIPATED IN THIS MUGGY ENVIRONMENT. ON THURSDAY...THE CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS FAVORABLE FOR STORM FORMATION AS THE FRONT LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENS A TAD. BOTH TODAY AND THURSDAY HIGHS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE IN THE LOW 90S...BUT CLOUDS AND CONVECTION WILL LIMIT THE WORST OF THE HEAT...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA TODAY WHERE 85 DEGREES MAY BE A STRETCH. ONCE AGAIN THE T/TD/WINDS GRIDS WERE STARTED OFF FROM THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SUPERBLEND. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE IMPACT THAT THE CONVECTION WILL HAVE ON THESE ELEMENTS CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL FOR THEIR SPECIFICS. DID RAISE TEMPS A SMIDGEN ON THURSDAY WITH SLIGHTLY LESS CONVECTION ANTICIPATED THAN TODAY. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSEST TO THE HIGHER MET NUMBERS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM AS THE MAV APPEARS TO BE OVERLY DRY GIVEN THE POTENTIAL OF THIS PATTERN AND PERHAPS THE COARSER RESOLUTION OF ITS PARENT MODEL WHEN COMPARED TO THAT OF THE MET/S. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 A VERY WET AND ACTIVE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD SEEMS TO BE ON TAP. THE PERIOD BEGINS ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN OPEN SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE PUTTING EAST KENTUCKY IN A TROPICAL TYPE AIRMASS. HEADING INTO FRIDAY...THE REMNANTS OF BILL SETS UP JUST TO THE WEST OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY POISED TO HEAD EAST UP THE OH VALLEY AND WITH IT...A SUBSTANTIAL SHOT OF MOISTURE. THIS IS CONFIRMED WITH THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS AND EURO AND ALSO WITH THE SUPER BLEND. THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND THE REMNANTS OF BILL...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE...COUPLED WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE OH VALLEY WILL BE A FOCUS FOR CONTINUED ROUNDS OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PWATS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 1.75 TO 2.00 INCH RANGE. BY MONDAY THE PATTERN TAKES ON A MORE DIURNAL DRIVEN MAX AND MIN TIME FOR CONVECTION. MONDAY AND TUESDAYS ACTIVITY WILL DRIVEN BY A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE JET. THESE WAVES WILL BRING A COUPLE OF WEAK COLD FRONTS THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER...AS WELL...WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING INTO THE AREA...THIS PATTERN DOES FAVOR A MCS TYPE PATTERN. AT THE SURFACE...THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS WILL KEEP THE AREA IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S MAKING FOR A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS EACH DAY. CERTAINLY THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD RAISES A CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND...POSSIBLY COMPLICATED BY THE MCS PATTERN TO START THE NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD DAWN SO HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE SYM TAF. OTHERWISE...FOG WILL BE A THREAT FOR MUCH OF EAST KENTUCKY INTO DAWN. HAVE ALLOWED FOR SOME MVFR VIS CONDITIONS AT MOST SITES VIA A TEMPO GROUP EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT JKL WILL SEE VARYING AMOUNT OF FOG...FREQUENTLY DENSE AND DOWN TO VLIFR. LEFT THIS FOG AS PREVAILING...BUT DO ANTICIPATE TIMES OF BETTER VIS. ALL THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z WITH STORMS AGAIN DEVELOPING BY NOON FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. HAVE INCLUDED A VCTS FOR THIS IN ALL THE TAFS...RUNNING IT THROUGH SUNSET. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT NEAR 10 KTS FOR THE AFTERNOON...THEN DIE OFF AFTER SUNSET. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
225 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 THE SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DIED OUT OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE...BUT ARE STILL GOING STRONG TO THE WEST. THE HRRR TAKES THIS AREA...MOVES IT INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND WEAKENS IT. BASED ON TRENDS AND THE LATEST NAM12 GUIDANCE HAVE SLOWED THIS MOVEMENT DOWN BUT DO ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN POPS TOWARD DAWN NORTH OF JKL. ALSO...TWEAKED THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE...OBS...AND TRENDS. AS FOR FOG...IT REMAINS VARIABLE THROUGH THE AREA...BUT DID HIT IT HARDEST IN THE VALLEYS THAT SAW RAIN EARLIER IN THE NIGHT AND YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1028 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 QUICK UPDATE TO ALIGN TEMPS AND DEW POINTS WITH MOST RECENT OBS. STILL ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THAT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 747 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 MOST OF THE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS HAVE WANED...LEAVING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. AN ADDITIONAL SET OF STORMS ARE CURRENTLY WEST OF OUR AREA BUT THESE SHOULD ALSO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BEFORE MOVING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE TRICKY PART OF THE FORECAST TONIGHT WILL BE THE FOG POTENTIAL. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE SMALL IN MANY LOCATIONS...AND WITH MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP EARLY ON THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SO HAVE PUT IN AREAS OF FOG INTO THE ZONES THROUGH EARLY MORNING. OTHERWISE...MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMP GRIDS TO ALIGN THEM BETTER WITH MOST RECENT OBS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND TARGET THE CENTER OF OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A DIFFUSE SURFACE FRONT AND THE 850 MB JET. THE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AND OUTFLOWS GENERATED FROM CURRENT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY FORCE ADDITIONAL STORMS OVER THE UPPER CUMBERLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE STILL MEAGER LAPSE RATES...A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL PULSE UP AND COLLAPSE QUICKLY...PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE AFTERNOON STORMS WILL WANE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING BUT CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A STORM ANYWHERE DURING THE NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE FRONT WILL SHIFT NORTH SOME AND THE MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF STORMS SHOULD ALSO SHIFT NORTH OVER OUR MORE NORTHERN COUNTIES. SIMILAR AIR MASS CHARACTERISTICS TOMORROW...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER LAPSE RATES...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST WITH THE STORMS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH TEMPS OR HUMIDITY DURING THE PERIOD. IN FACT...MANY LOCATIONS WILL AGAIN HIT THE LOW 90S TOMORROW WITH UPPER 80S UP NORTH WHERE MORE CLOUD COVER IS ANTICIPATED. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 446 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 WE WILL BE IN A FAVORED AREA FOR CONVECTION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AT THE EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES ALOFT AND WITH A TROPICAL AIR MASS IN PLACE. THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL SHOULD BE TO OUR WEST...WITH MOISTURE POSSIBLY STREAMING EASTWARD TOWARD KENTUCKY...WHICH COULD ALSO ENHANCE OUR RAIN POTENTIAL. BILL IS EXPECTED TO DEGRADE TO AN OPEN WAVE ALOFT ON SATURDAY AS IT PASSES BY. ITS INFLUENCE WILL RESULT IN OUR BEST CHANCE OF RAIN AREA-WIDE ON SATURDAY. IN ITS WAKE...POPS WILL DROP OFF ON SUNDAY. ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE NE CONUS WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR WEST...RESULTING IN NW FLOW ALOFT FOR OUR AREA. A MOIST SURFACE AIR MASS SHOULD PERSIST. THIS SUMMERTIME SCENARIO CAN FAVOR CONVECTION AND SOMETIMES MCS OCCURRENCE...AND PRECIP WILL CONTINUED TO BE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. THE ECMWF SHOWS A DYING COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY...AND A SLIGHTLY ENHANCED POP WAS USED THEN. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD DAWN SO HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE SYM TAF. OTHERWISE...FOG WILL BE A THREAT FOR MUCH OF EAST KENTUCKY INTO DAWN. HAVE ALLOWED FOR SOME MVFR VIS CONDITIONS AT MOST SITES VIA A TEMPO GROUP EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT JKL WILL SEE VARYING AMOUNT OF FOG...FREQUENTLY DENSE AND DOWN TO VLIFR. LEFT THIS FOG AS PREVAILING...BUT DO ANTICIPATE TIMES OF BETTER VIS. ALL THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z WITH STORMS AGAIN DEVELOPING BY NOON FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. HAVE INCLUDED A VCTS FOR THIS IN ALL THE TAFS...RUNNING IT THROUGH SUNSET. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT NEAR 10 KTS FOR THE AFTERNOON...THEN DIE OFF AFTER SUNSET. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...ABE LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1145 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2015 .UPDATE: Issued at 836 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2015 Went ahead and added Boone and Moniteau to the flash flood watch as parts of these counties have received between 0.5 and 1 inch of rainfall so far this evening. Theses two counties should see 2-4+ inches of rainfall over the next few days making flash flooding a real possibility. Otherwise, going forecast looks on track through tonight as showers and thunderstorms should continue. The latest runs of the HRRR continues to show precipitation regenerating over the central and southern part of the CWA through the night, albeit with weakening reflectivity. The RAP continues to show strong low level moisture convergence developing on the nose of a 30kt low level jet over the CWA. Britt && .SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 330 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2015 The warm and moisture rich air mass poised along and south of the front has responded to diurnal heating with SBCAPES of 2000-3000 J/KG throughout the warm sector, supporting the development of scattered to numerous showers and thundrstorms. The 12z KSGF raob shows the moisture continuing to deepen and increase with PW now at 2.01 inches with a tall skinny CAPE profile, characteristics favorable for very efficient rainfall production and high rainfall rates which has been observed with some of the current storms. The models show the boundary lifting northward tonight but I`m not all convinced of that solution given the high pressure to our north across the upper MS Valley. Regardless, several weak disturbances will track within the southwest flow aloft across the region and that combined with a broad region of lift and moisture convergence associated with the anticyclonically curved and veering southwesterly LLJ will continue to support waves of showers and thunderstorms tonight across mainly the southern half of the CWA. Glass .LONG TERM: (Wednesday through Next Tuesday) Issued at 330 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2015 Continued waves of showers and thunderstorms across the southern half of the CWA and the remnants of TS Bill are expected through the end of the week with potential for serious flooding, both flash flooding on small creeks and streams and potential for major flood levels of some of the larger rivers. The overall situation has changed little leading to increasing confidence. Still unknown will be the exact path of the remnant tropical low. From Wednesday into Thursday a parade of disturbances will track E/NE across the southern half of the CWA within the southwest flow aloft on the periphery of the upper high in the southeastern U.S.. At the same time the south-southwesterly LLJ will modulate periodically veering and strengthening, focusing a broad region of lift across the southern half of the CWA. The combo of the these features will result in continued waves of showers and thunderstorms with the high moisture content supporting high rainfall rates and heavy rainfall totals. The models are also suggestive of an arcing convergent zone across southern MO emanating from the remnant low in the Thursday night-Friday time frame which could further enhance the rainfall potential. The current NHC official forecast has the low moving across south- central and southeast MO into southern IL Friday into Friday evening which appears to be in the center of the guidance suite. It appears by Saturday morning the remnant low will have passed to our east with drier weather expected until another cold front enters the area late Saturday night into Sunday. Still thinking we will see a swath of rainfall averaging 5-7 inches over the next 5 days centered near a Rolla-Waterloo-Salem axis, with the highest rainfall period centered in the Thursday night-Friday time frame. Local rainfall totals could be quite a bit higher. Have expanded the Flash Flood Watch until 7 pm Friday evening as a result of this anticipated scenario. Glass && .AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night) Issued at 1141 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2015 First batch of rain has mainly settled south of the terminals across southern Missouri and Illinois. A renewed threat of convection and heavy rainfall will likely develop late tonight or early Wednesday morning and affect the St. Louis Metro terminals. Light wind will become southwest on Wednesday. Specifics for KSTL: Light rain should taper off in the next few hours, but thunderstorms should redevelop around daybreak and continue tomorrow morning and perhaps into the afternoon. Light wind will become southwest on Wednesday. CVKING && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES: MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday evening FOR Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO- Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-St. Charles MO-St. Francois MO-St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Warren MO- Washington MO. IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday evening FOR Bond IL-Calhoun IL- Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL- Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-Randolph IL- St. Clair IL-Washington IL. && $$ WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
349 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 ALOFT: THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN OVER THE NRN USA THRU DAWN TOMORROW...WITH A VERY LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN WNW FLOW OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. SUBTROPICAL HIGHS WILL CONT OVER THE SW AND SE USA...WITH THE REMNANTS OF BILL LIFTING N INTO OK. SURFACE: THE POLAR FRONT WAS QUASI-STATIONARY ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE WESTERLIES AND EXTENDED FROM WY-NEB E INTO THE OH VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY THRU TONIGHT...AND WILL BE MODULATED/MODIFIED BY TSTM ACTIVITY. NOW: THE REMNANTS OF A DECAYING MCS ARE MOVING THRU AT THIS TIME. RAIN-COOLED OUTFLOW HAS OVERTAKEN THE ENTIRE FCST AREA. WE DID SEE MULTIPLE GUSTS UP TO 43 MPH ACROSS FURNAS/HARLAN/FRANKLIN COUNTIES 12AM-2AM WHEN IT WAS MORE POTENT. TODAY: DECREASING CLOUDS THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW REGARDING TSTM REDEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO A LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING. THE 00Z 4KM WRF-NMM HAS AN EXCELLENT HANDLE ON WHAT IS GOING ON NOW...IT`S JUST TOO SLOW BY 4 HRS. IT SUGGESTS THE BEST DEVELOPMENT WILL BE S AND E OF THE FCST AREA...PROBABLY ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GENERATED BY THIS MORNING`S MCS. DEVELOPMENTS IN THE RAIN- COOLED AIR OVER THE FCST AREA LOOK VERY ISOLATED/MINIMAL...AND IF THERE IS NOT ENOUGH TSTM ACTIVITY TO FORM A COMMON COLD POOL...WHAT LITTLE ACTIVITY FIRES SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. THE 06Z HRRR HAS A SIMILAR IDEA AT 21Z. ENOUGH CLEARING TODAY SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY... WITH MLCAPE 2000-2500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR 30-40 KTS...HIGHEST OVER S-CNTRL NEB. LOW-LVL VEERING RESULTS IN 0-3 KM SRH OF 150 J/KG. THIS WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL CONVECTIVE MODE. SPC HAS MOST OF THE FCST AREA OUTLOOKED IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR. TONIGHT: IT ALL HINGES ON WHAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON. IF ONLY A FEW ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE FCST AREA...THEY WILL DIMINISH AND END MID-LATE EVE. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH DEVELOPMENTS TO THE W. THE SIGNAL IS NOT GREAT...BUT CELL MERGERS COULD RESULT IN AN MCS THAT COULD PROPAGATE INTO NEB. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW GIVEN THE LACK OF MODEL QPF CLUSTERING AND LOW SREF QPF PROBABILITIES. GIVEN LOW FCST CONFIDENCE...POPS ARE NO HIGHER THAN 20% TODAY- TONIGHT. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SUBTLE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING WILL BE NOTED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE TO START THE LONG- TERM FORECAST PERIOD AT 12Z THURSDAY...AND ALTHOUGH THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST TO FINISH THE WEEK...THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS OF ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SUBTLE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATION WILL CLEAR THE AREA THURSDAY AND AS A RESULT...~20% POPS CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS PERTURBATION IS EXPECTED TO HAVE CLEARED OUR AREA BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THERE ALSO REMAIN INDICATIONS OF HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION PERHAPS SUSTAINING ITSELF LONG ENOUGH TO IMPACT FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY EVENING AND AS A RESULT...~20% POPS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR FAR WEST 00-06Z FRIDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...THE FIRST UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA...THUS ELIMINATING ANY APPRECIABLE OMEGA. THIS...AND THE PRESENCE OF A HEALTHY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC CAPPING INVERSION EACH AFTERNOON...RESULTS IN A POP-FREE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MORE INTO THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY TIME PERIOD...ANOTHER ROUND OF MULTIPLE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATIONS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FIRST RIDGE COULD BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION AND AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD WITH 20-30% POPS ACROSS VARIOUS PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST NEXT TUESDAY AS THE SECOND UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. AS WAS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...RESPECTABLE BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE ...ALONG WITH VARYING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PERTURBATIONS...WILL PROMOTE VARYING LEVELS OF POTENTIAL ENERGY FROM DAY TO DAY DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD. FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING...ENERGY LEVELS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 1000-2000J/KG ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED. GIVEN THIS...WILL CONTINUE MENTIONING THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE HWO FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AIR MASS EARLY NEXT WEEK SUGGESTS STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER COULD RESULT SHOULD CONVECTION DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL...BUT AT THIS TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TO INTRODUCE ANY MENTION OF SEVERE WEATHER THAT FAR INTO THE FUTURE. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS WILL PROMOTE WARM WEATHER DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S AND 90S AND LOWS IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S. AT THIS TIME THE WARMEST DAY APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS LIKELY CLIMBING INTO THE 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWA AND PERHAPS NEARING THE CENTURY MARK ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THESE TEMPERATURE READINGS...IF REALIZED...WOULD HELP PROMOTE HEAT INDEX READINGS OF 100-102 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. NOT YET READY TO INTRODUCE HEAT WORDING IN THE HWO FOR THIS WEEKEND...BUT THIS MAY BE SOMETHING TO CONSIDER IN THE COMING DAYS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WED NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 REST OF THE NIGHT: VFR COULD TEMPORARILY DECAY TO MVFR OR IFR TSTMS. THEREAFTER...MULTI-LAYERED VFR CLOUD DEBRIS. VRB WINDS AS THESE STORMS OR THEIR REMNANTS MOVE THRU. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM WED: VFR. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARBY AND SCT POCKETS OF MVFR/IFR TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP. WINDS OUTSIDE TSTMS WILL BE E-SE UNDER 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: LOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH TSTMS. WED EVE: PROBABLY VFR...OUTSIDE OF SCT MVFR/IFR TSTMS. E-ESE WINDS UNDER 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: LOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH TSTMS. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB LONG TERM...BRYANT AVIATION...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1246 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH A THERMAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN DISSIPATE. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1245 AM WEDNESDAY...MCS HAS WEAKENED AND MOVE OFF OF THE NORTHEAST NC COAST LATE TONIGHT. RADAR IS DETECTING WHAT LOOKS TO BE THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FROM NORTHERN LENOIR COUNTY EAST TO THE OUTER BANKS NEAR SALVO MOVING SOUTH. NOT SEEING ANY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY AND A QUICK PEAK AT 00Z NAM AND THE HRRR AND RAP-13 MODELS INDICATE DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT SO WILL REMOVE POPS FROM THE FORECAST. THE FLOW SHIFTS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT AS WE ARE NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT COOLING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WITH MIN TEMPS MAINLY 75-80 AGAIN. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/... AS OF 330 PM TUESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SFC FRONTAL BNDRY WILL PUSH THROUGH MOST OF AREA DURING MORNING...STALLING NEAR SRN SECTIONS DURING AFTN. SOME WEAK CAA WILL BE FELT BEHIND FRONT MAINLY OVER NE SECTIONS...WITH NRN OBX HELD TO MID 80S WITH NE WINDS MOST OF DAY. LOW LVL THICKNESSES WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER OVER REST OF AREA...SUPPORTING MAX TEMPS MAINLY MID 90S SW HALF OF AREA. APPARENT TEMPS WILL BE HELD TO 98-102 FOR MOST OF AREA AND DO NOT PLAN TO POST HEAT ADVISORY FOR WED. WITH FRONTAL BNDRY STALLING OVER SRN SECTIONS...SOME CONVERGENCE WITH SEA BREEZE LIKELY AND COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A TRIGGER FOR SCT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...AND CONTINUED PREVIOUS FCST 20/30 POPS ALL BUT OBX. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 430 PM TUESDAY...A PERSISTENT SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE PIEDMONT THERMAL TROUGH RE-ESTABLISHES WEST OF THE AREA THURSDAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST, CREATING A WEAK LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE AREA CENTERED OVER EASTERN NC WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, MODELS ARE NOT INITIATING CONVECTION UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IMPROVES WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/MID ATLANTIC. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS INLAND TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG/OFF THE COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE MID 90S INLAND TO 85-90 ALONG THE COAST. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SLIGHT DIFFERENCES CONTINUE IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE LATE IN THE WEEK, MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH HOW THEY HANDLE THE MOISTURE PLUME FROM TROPICAL STORM BILL CURRENTLY MAKING LANDFALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST. CURRENT GUIDANCE KEEPS THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE BECOMES SHUNTED SOUTHEAST SLIGHTLY OFF THE FL COAST BY SATURDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS SUGGEST A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO EASTERN NC FRIDAY, THOUGH BEST UPPER SUPPORT/FORCING REMAIN IN CENTRAL VA, WITH THE FRONT WASHING OUT OVER THE REGION SATURDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AGAIN ENSUES OVER EASTERN NC. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MAINLY DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP 850MB TEMPS AROUND 20 DEGREES WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AROUND 1425-1440M SO THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE AND EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 90S INLAND WITH 85-90 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE REMNANTS OF TS BILL LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW BRIEFLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS ARE WEAKER WITH A UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY DIGGING INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY THE CAROLINAS THOUGH THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. CONTINUE DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH 850MB TEMPS REMAINING AROUND 20 DEGREES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING HIGHS IN THE 90S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST. ONLY SLIGHT COOLING FOR TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S INLAND AND MID 80S ALONG THE COAST. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 1245 AM WEDNESDAY...CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY FOG/LOW CLOUDS BEHIND IT TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR BRIEF SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP. LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE NAM GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 450 PM TUES...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TAF SITES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ISOLATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN MAINLY DIURNAL STORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. PRE- DAWN STRATUS AND/OR FOG MAY PRODUCE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE PRECIPITATION. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 1245 AM WEDNESDAY...WSW WINDS 5-15 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT NORTH 10 TO 15 KT BEHIND THE SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE SRN WATERS WED AFTN...WITH WINDS BECOMING E-SE THERE AS SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. SEAS BUILD TO 2-4 FT OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING ON WED. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 450 PM TUES...THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH FLOW BECOMING SOUTHERLY THEN SOUTHWESTERLY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA AND STALLS FRIDAY BRINGING LIGHTER WINDS ACROSS THE REGION, MAINLY 15 KT OR LESS. THIS FRONT DISSIPATES BY SATURDAY WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURNING AND INCREASING TO 15-20 KT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND SOME MODELS ARE EVEN AS STRONG AS 25 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 4 FEET ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, HOWEVER SEAS MAY BRIEFLY BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SEAS BUILD AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND COULD SEE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOP. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JBM NEAR TERM...JME/BTC/JBM SHORT TERM...JBM LONG TERM...SK/DAG AVIATION...JME/SK/DAG MARINE...JME/BTC/JBM/SK/DAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1227 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED FOG ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH THIS UPDATE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION ARE NOT SHOWING ANY FOG EXCEPT A VERY FEW STATIONS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER WITH PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 925 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 FOR THIS UPDATE...TRIMMED BACK CLOUD COVER IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS. HRRR MODEL OUTPUT SEEMS TO AGREE WITH THIS PROGRESSION AND USED IT AS GUIDANCE FOR THE OVERNIGHT. ALSO DECREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST AS MOST OF THE SHOWERS HAVE EITHER MOVED OUT OF THE AREA OR DISSIPATED. THE ONLY OTHER CHANGE THAT WAS MADE WAS TO DELAY THE ONSET OF HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UPDATE ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. TRIMMED PRECIP CHANCES IN THE EAST BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND TOOK THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE ONGOING SHOWERS IN THE NEAR TERM...CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT...THEN CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY. CURRENTLY...QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT REMAINS WITH AN EMBEDDED S/WV TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A SFC RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. AREA OF MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE SOUTHWEST NOW MAINLY DRY. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE FROM WEST TO EAST THOUGH THE DAY WITH PRECIP ENDING AT KBIS MOMENTARILY...AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST...ALTHOUGH THIS IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY THE LONGER STRATUS REMAINS IN PLACE. EMBEDDED WAVE EXITS OFF TO OUR EAST LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS ALL OF WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ALL MODELS INDICATING STRATUS FIELD EXPANDING ACROSS MOST IF NOT ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AFTER 00Z...SO SKY COVER WAS KEPT ELEVATED TONIGHT WHICH WILL IN TURN KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY MODERATE IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. WITH HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE AND WITH RECENT MODERATE RAINFALL...FOG IS FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY THE STRATUS/DEVELOP FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE RAIN FELL. HIGH RES MODELS INDICATING POSSIBLE DENSE FOG OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...SO THIS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE HEADLINES. STRATUS AND FOG BURN OFF MOST AREAS 12-15Z TOMORROW MORNING...LINGERING ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY TILL LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA WILL PUSH A SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE WILL ACCOMPANY THE FROPA SO WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AN ACTIVE QUASI-ZONAL PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT EVERY 18 TO 36 HOURS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSES MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. LIMITED CAPE WITH THE NAM DEPICTING 100-500 J/KG AND THE GFS ZERO. THURSDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. INSTABILITY INCREASES IN THE WEST WITH TIME DURING THE DAY AS THE NEXT STRONGER UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WAVE MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WIND SHEAR INCREASES WITH SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE TO H850 WINDS AND SOUTHWESTERLY H700 WINDS...BUT THE BEST CAPE REMAINS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE STATE. STILL...COULD BE STRONG STORMS IN THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. THURSDAY NIGHT YET ANOTHER STRONGER SET OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WAVES MOVES EAST ACROSS THE STATE. HAVE HIGH CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WIND SHEAR INCREASES FURTHER WITH OVER 60 KNOTS OF SHEAR - SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WITH SOUTHERLY H850 WINDS AT 30- 45 KNOTS AND SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY H700 WINDS. THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE STORMS IS MOST UNSTABLE CAPE...WITH VALUES REACHING 1000 J/KG OVER SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...BUT MUCH STRONGER VALUES FARTHER SOUTH. STILL...COULD BE SOME STRONG STORMS SOUTHWEST AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL. FRIDAY IS WHEN THE STRONG/HIGH CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES COINCIDE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL JET MOVES/DEVELOPS INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THE STRONGEST STORMS FOR OUR AREA MAY BE THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY EVENING THE LOW LEVEL JET IS INTO MINNESOTA...HOWEVER THE NEXT ROUND OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSES MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY STRONG...FRIDAY NIGHT FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST NEARLY EACH PERIOD SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED EAST LEAVING BEHIND LOW CEILINGS FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. IT APPEARS THAT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE PATCHY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH CEILINGS LOWERING INTO THE IFR AND EVEN LIFR RANGE AT KDIK...KBIS...AND KJMS. THE EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS ENDS RIGHT ALONG SITES KMOT AND KISN...THESE SITES MAY GO IN AND OUT OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE LOW CLOUDS LIFT AND PUSH EAST. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MM SHORT TERM...NH LONG TERM...JV AVIATION...MM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
445 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTH LIFTS BACK NORTH WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM BILL REMNANTS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 00Z NAM NOT HANDLING THE WAVE COMING OUT OF THE MIDWEST VERY WELL...SO RELIED MORE ON THE HRRR FOR POPS TODAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL SLOWLY RETURN NORTHWARD TODAY. AM A BIT CONCERNED WITH POTENTIAL FOR WATER PROBLEMS...BUT THE MORNING ARRIVAL OF THE FIRST WAVE WILL LIMIT HEATING. ALSO...MUCH OF THE NORTHERN COUNTIES HAD A BREAK FROM HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS SITUATION HOWEVER. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH STILL OVER THE SOUTHEAST US PLENTY OF SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE HIGH ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA. THIS WILL MEAN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS. EVEN WITH DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT TIMING EACH FEATURE IS VERY DIFFICULT SO WENT WITH MORE OF A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH. WITH SUCH A TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE AND WHAT WILL ESSENTIALLY BE A WEEK OF HIGH PWS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EACH DAY BRINGS ON MORE OF A CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO. AT SOME POINT IN TIME A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS ON THURSDAY FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. THE LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BOB WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES WITH THIS. IN ADDITION THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT POSSIBLE WIND GUSTS FOR THE MOUNTAINS. WITH SUCH SATURATED SOILS THIS COULD CAUSE SOME TREES TO FALL. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE REMNANTS OF WHAT WAS TROPICAL STORM BILL SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE START OF THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES CLOUDY AND RAIN CHANGES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF THE NEXT WEEK. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS PERIOD AS CONTINUED RAINFALL IS LIKELY IN THE PATH OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS IS LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR TIMING. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A COLD FRONT HAS STALLED ACROSS NORTHERN WV AND SOUTHEAST OHIO. THIS HAS LEFT ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. ALL THIS MOISTURE MEANS THAT CLOUDS COULD FORM AT MOST ANY LEVEL...AND ANY CLEARING COULD MEAN INSTANT FOG. THIS LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING. TO COMPLICATE MATTERS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT...BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS BEFORE DAWN. THE STRATUS DECK SHOULD GRADUALLY RAISE INTO A CUMULUS DECK DURING THE DAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FORMING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HEIGHT OF A STRATUS DECK THIS MORNING COULD VARY CONSIDERABLY. ANY HOLES IN THE CLOUDS COULD ALLOW FOR VISIBILITIES TO DROP DUE TO FOG. DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AIRMASS...SPECIFIC TIMING AND INTENSITY ARE NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS. .AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. TIMING AND INTENSITY OF MORNING FOG WILL DEPENDS OF LOCATIONS THAT GET RAIN AND CAN CLEAR OUT AT NIGHT. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FB/RPY/JMV NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...FB LONG TERM...JSH/JMV AVIATION...RPY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
948 AM MDT WED JUN 17 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 905 AM MDT WED JUN 17 2015 NOT MUCH TO ADJUST IN THE SHORT TERM. LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS TO TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS THE FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. STILL SUFFICIENT CAPE/SHEAR FOR A SEVERE TSTM OR TWO THIS AFTN/EVNG...LATEST RUC13 SOUNDINGS GENERATE 1000-1500 J/KG. BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETENTION WILL BE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF DENVER. && .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT WED JUN 16 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL COLORADO WITH CONTINUED ASSOCIATED SHOWERS OVER SUMMIT AND PARK COUNTIES. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EAST THIS MORNING EXPECT SOME DRYING OVER MOUNTAINS AND FRONT RANGE. OVERALL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE LOWER TODAY AS INTEGRATED PW VALUES HAVE DROPPED A COUPLE TENTHS IN THE PAST 24 HOURS OVER THE FRONT RANGE. THERE WAS SOME FOG POTENTIAL AS INDICATED BY NAM AND LESSER EXTENT THE RAP BUT APPEARS NAM WAS WAY OVERDONE WITH MOISTURE THIS AM AS DEWPOINTS ARE SUPPOSED TO BE IN THE LOWER 60S NOW AND THROUGH THE DAY. EXTENSIVE MID/HI CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF METAR PLOTS TONIGHT RESULTING IN HARD TIME SEEING IF THERE IS ANY FOG/STRATUS ON THE PLAINS. NON-NWS SURFACE PLOTS INDICATE THERE IS ENOUGH T/TD SPREADS THAT WON`T SEE MUCH FOG THIS AM AND WON`T INCLUDE IN ZONES. WITH OVERZEALOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM NAM WILL DISCOUNT THAT MODEL AS IT INDICATED UP TO 3000J/KG OF CAPE. RAP SEEMED BETTER WITH 700-1500J/KG BASED ON DEWPOINTS FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ON THE PLAINS WHICH LOOKS MORE REASONABLE. EVEN LATEST HRRR ONLY HAS ISOLATED COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF PALMER DIVIDE AND CYS RIDGE. ALSO AREA WILL BE UNDER WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. WILL LOWER POPS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING TO MAINLY ISOLATED COVERAGE HIGHEST CHANCES REMAINING ON EAST SLOPES AND HIGHER TERRAIN. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT WED JUN 16 2015 DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS STILL ON TRACK THURSDAY AND BEYOND WITH A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR WEST. NOT UNCOMMON FOR A STRONG... NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER RIDGE/HEAT DOME TO ENVELOP COLORADO AND THE SOUTHWEST U.S. DURING THE LATTER HALF OF JUNE PRIOR TO THE UNSET OF THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON. LATEST MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE INDICATES A STRING OF 90 PLUS DEGREE DAYS FOR THE PLAINS BEGINNING THURSDAY. WARMEST AIR ALOFT COINCIDENT WITH THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS OVER THE FCST AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...EQUATING TO HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS BOTH DAYS. DO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER TO GET IN THE WAY. ALTHOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT A STRAY GUSTY HIGH BASED T-STORM OR TWO OVR AND NEAR THE FRONT RANGE WITH ALL OF THE SOIL MOISTURE AROUND AND STEEP AFTERNOON LAPSE RATES. SEE THIS MAINLY HAPPENING ON FRIDAY. SUNDAY...MAY BE EVEN WARMER WITH A 596 DECAMETER RIDGE SQUARELY OVER COLORADO. HOWEVER A COUPLE OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL SHOW A WEAK MID-LEVEL PERTABATION ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND BRUSHING THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF COLORADO LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. AROUND THE SAME TIME THEY ALSO SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT OR SFC TROUGH BACKING INTO THE NERN CORNER OF THE STATE ON MOIST EAST-SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW. ITS POSSIBLE A FEW T-STORMS COULD FIRE ALONG THIS SFC BNDRY/THETA-E AXIS AS THE UPPER AIR FEATURE PASSING BY. OTHERWISE SUNDAY LOOKS DRY AND QUITE WARM FOR THE REST OF THE CWA. GOOD DAY FOR A BBQ. FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SEE LITTLE IN THE WAY CHANGE WITH THE UPPER RIDGE KEEPING ITS GRIP ON THE CENTRAL CONUS. THAT MEANS TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AND PRECIP CHANCES NEAR ZERO BOTH DAYS. HOWEVER...THE 00Z EUROPEAN MODEL INDICATES THE START OF A WETTER PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR TUESDAY. IT SHOWS THE CORE OF THE UPPER RIDGE QUICKLY SHIFTING WELL EAST OF COLORADO ON TUESDAY WHICH OPENS THE ROCKY MTN REGION TO A MOIST SOUTHERLY TROPICAL FLOW. LOOKS RATHER MONSOONISH. THE WAY THIS YEAR HAS BEEN GOING WITH EL NINO STRENGTHENING IN THE PACIFIC...FEEL THE NEED TO INTRODUCE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF T-STORMS MAINLY FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY LATE TUESDAY AND LOWER TEMPS BY A DEG OR TWO FROM THOSE EXPECTED THE DAY BEFORE TO ACCOUNT FOR A POSSIBLE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 905 AM MDT WED JUN 17 2015 VFR CIGS/VSBYS TODAY. LGT AND VRB WINDS THIS MORNING...BECOMING E/SELY THIS AFTN...THEN BACK TO DRAINAGE BY LATE EVENING. VCTS WILL SUFFICE IN THE TAFS LATE AFTN/ERLY EVENING. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT WED JUN 16 2015 A BIT DRIER AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE OF STORMS TODAY WHILE STORMS WILL BE MOVING AT A DECENT CLIP WILL RESULT IN LOW CHANCES FOR FLASH FLOODING TODAY. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FLOOD WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...COOPER SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN LONG TERM...BAKER AVIATION...COOPER HYDROLOGY...ENTREKIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
1128 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES INTO THE WEEKEND WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN WEAKEN OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE RETURNING BY MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... ONGOING FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND ONLY SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS MADE WITH THE LATE MORNING UPDATE. IT WILL BE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY FOR THE REGION AS AN ANONYMOUSLY STRONG...DEEP LAYERED RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE CORE OF THE HOTTEST 850 HPA TEMPERATURES THAT HAVE BEEN SITTING OVER THE PEE DEE AND THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN OF NORTH CAROLINA FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL SINK SOUTH THIS MORNING AND BE POSITIONED OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS 100-102 INLAND WITH MID-UPPER 90S JUST INLAND FROM THE BEACHES AS 850 HPA TEMPERATURES WARM TO 22C. HIGHS CERTAINLY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH 100 DEGREES AT KSAV AND KCHS FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR WHICH WOULD BE NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR THE DATE...BUT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION THAT FIRES TODAY. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX OUT IN THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 THEN POOL IN THE MID-UPPER 70S ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES MID-LATE AFTERNOON AS THE RESULTANT SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND. THIS WILL PRODUCE MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES OF 105-110 INLAND AND UPWARDS OF 112 JUST INLAND FROM THE BEACHES FOR SEVERAL HOURS--HOTTEST IN THE BEAUFORT-DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON-AWENDAW CORRIDOR WHERE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT DEWPOINT POOLING WILL OCCUR ALONG THE RESULTANT. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN FORCE FOR ALL AREAS THROUGH 7PM. DESPITE THE WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND LARGE SUBSIDENCE NOTED ON VARIOUS FORECAST SOUNDINGS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SEA BREEZE DURING PEAK HEATING. THE HRRR AND NSSL-WRF ARE BOTH AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING THE CONVECTION DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT THIS SEEMS A BIT TOO EARLY FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION BASED ON THE TIMING THAT HAS OCCURRED THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. THEREFORE THE FORECAST SHOWS 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES OF RAINFALL AFTER 3 PM. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... TONIGHT...ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL END QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF INSOLATION. LINGERING CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE YIELDING CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. FULL DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER APPEARS UNLIKELY...EXCEPT MAYBE ACROSS FAR INLAND AREAS...SO EXPECT ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S INLAND TO THE LOWER 80S AT THE BEACHES. THE RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS COULD BE CHALLENGED AT KCHS AND KCXM WHILE THE RECORD AT KSAV LOOKS SAFE. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHILE A WESTERLY FLOW OCCURS ALOFT. AS A RESULT...VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE AS STRONG SFC HEATING OCCURS UNDER LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. BY SATURDAY...THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY RETREAT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL CONTINUE TO BE HOT AND FAIRLY HUMID CONDITIONS PRODUCING HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 DEGREES DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON SFC DEWPTS...WHICH WILL LIKELY MIX OUT INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DURING PEAK HEATING EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE BEHIND AN INLAND MOVING SEABREEZE DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. BY SATURDAY...HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD FALL JUST SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA DUE TO SLIGHTLY MORE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND CLOUD COVER. 1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE 100 DEGREES AWAY FROM THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON...BUT THE INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD LIMIT FULL HEATING POTENTIAL A FEW DEGREES. HAVE THEREFORE MAINTAINED HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN MID 90S ON SATURDAY. LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD EACH NIGHT...IN THE MID/UPPER 70S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A LARGE MID LVL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY RETREAT OFFSHORE IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. A LOW AMPLITUDE MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW THE SFC LOW...BUT WILL DO LITTLE TO STOP ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE FROM REBUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY MIDWEEK. AS A RESULT...THE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME...HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S EACH AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD...IN THE MID/UPPER 70S AWAY FROM THE COASTLINE. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING AFTERNOON SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BEGINNING ON FRIDAY AND LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .MARINE... TODAY AND TONIGHT...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL HOLD 10-15 KT WITH SEAS 1-3 FT. THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THE WEEKEND. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GENERALLY PEAK AROUND 15 KTS NEAR AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND DURING NOCTURNAL SURGES THROUGH SATURDAY. A GRADUAL ENHANCEMENT TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS THEN ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. AS A RESULT...15-20 KT WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY BEYOND 10 NM FROM THE COAST. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1-3 FT THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN GRADUALLY BUILD TO 2-4 FT HIGHEST BEYOND 10 NM FROM THE COAST. RIP CURRENTS...EAST/SOUTHEAST SWELL OF 9-10 SECONDS COMBINED WITH ONSHORE WINDS OF 10-15 KT WILL SUPPORT A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT ALL BEACHES TODAY. && .CLIMATE... RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS JUNE 17TH... KCHS...77 SET IN 1991. KCXM...82 SET IN 1998. KSAV...78 SET IN 1886. RECORDS FOR JUNE 17TH... KCHS...101 SET IN 1981. KCXM...100 SET IN 1921. KSAV...101 SET IN 1944. RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR JUNE 18TH... KCHS...75 SET IN 1985. KCXM...81 SET IN 1998. KSAV...79 SET IN 1944. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ087-088- 099>101-114>119-137>141. SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ040-042>045- 047>052. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...JAQ/ST SHORT TERM...DPB LONG TERM...DPB AVIATION...ST/DPB MARINE...ST/DPB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
704 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 ...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 OUTFLOW FROM THE CONVECTION IN NORTHEAST COLORADO EARLY THIS EVENING HAD PUSHED AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS SCOTT CITY BUT SEEMS TO HAVE LOST ITS STEAM. SURFACE OBS AT NORTON AND PHILLIPSBURG SHOW AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THAT AREA. WOULD THINK THAT BY SUNRISE, THIS BOUNDARY WILL HAVE PUSHED SOUTH INTO THE HAYS AREA. THE SHORT TERM HRRR AND RAP MODELS SHOW THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHING AS FAR SOUTH AS A HAYS TO HUGOTON LINE BY LATE MORNING BEFORE STARTING TO WASH OUT AND RETREAT NORTHWARD. NOT SURE THAT WE WILL SEE ANY CONVECTION FIRING IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY GIVEN THE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES BUT WILL LEAVE ANY CHANCES FROM THAT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. IN RESPONSE TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SHORT WAVE, THE MODELS HINT AT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OFF OF THE NORTHEAST COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND MOVING POSSIBLY MOVING INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING. THE GOING FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS. ANY STORMS THAT MAKE IT INTO WESTERN KANSAS SHOULD DIE LATER THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. WILL KEEP SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS DRY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE MODELS KEEP RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. BILL CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES TODAY ACROSS THE BOARD AS WARMER THE COLUMN CONTINUES TO WARM AND DEEP MIXING IS EXPECTED TODAY. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 ON THURSDAY, THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL WILL BE LOCATED OVER NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA, WITH UPSLOPE, SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER WESTERN KANSAS. WEAK NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER WESTERN KANSAS, COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S, WEAK CAPPING AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY LEAD TO LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY OVER FAR WESTERN KANSAS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED WEAK UPPER LEVEL WINDS, THESE STORMS MAY NOT BE SEVERE, BUT SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW, TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. ON FRIDAY, LEE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP A LITTLE MORE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS, BUT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY WEAK AND GIVEN THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, ANYTHING MORE THAN JUST AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS NOT EXPECTED. HIGHS OUGHT TO REACH INTO THE MID 90S ALONG THE COLORADO STATE LINE, WITH UPPER 80S IN CENTRAL KANSAS. SATURDAY WILL BE A WARMER DAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PROGRESSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, ALONG WITH SURFACE TROUGHING OVER WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN`T BE RULED OUT ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH. HIGHS SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE MID 90S, WITH SOME UPPER 90S ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT OVER WESTERN KANSAS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WHERE A LOW TO MID LEVEL DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WILL EXIST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S AND POSSIBLY NEAR 100 OVER WEST CENTRAL KANSAS, WITH MAINLY MID 90S FARTHER SOUTHEAST. LOWS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN THE VARIOUS MODELS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL GENERALLY RESULT IN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY OCCUR NEAR KHYS OR EVEN KGCK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 87 64 89 65 / 10 10 10 10 GCK 88 62 92 65 / 20 20 10 20 EHA 89 63 93 64 / 20 30 20 20 LBL 88 63 90 64 / 10 10 10 10 HYS 89 64 90 65 / 20 20 10 10 P28 85 66 89 68 / 10 10 10 10 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GERARD LONG TERM...FINCH AVIATION...FINCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
606 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2015 ...AVIATION UPDATE... .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 157 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 08Z water vapor shows a similar picture to yesterday. Just with tropical storm Bill now over south TX while the mean westerlies remain over the northern half of the U.S. The wrench in the forecast is a dying MCS over south central NEB. At 04Z observations showed a weak area of low pressure along the NEB and SD state line with a weak boundary trailing into northeast CO. For today and tonight, the forecast area is expected to remain in between the remnants of Bill to the south and the faster mid level flow over the northern plains. Models show the weak boundary to the north stalling out across NEB this afternoon which could provide a focus for convection this afternoon and overnight. However with the MCS likely putting an outflow boundary out into north central KS, there could be a little better chance for convection to form across northern KS this afternoon. Some of the short term runs like the HRRR/RAP/ARW support this idea of convection developing in the heat of the day across north central KS and along the NEB state line. With this in mind have some 30 percent chance POPs across north central KS by the mid afternoon hours. Some instability is expected to develop with model progs showing around 2000 J/kg. There may be a small chance for a strong storm or two to form. However deep layer shear is expected to remain rather modest around 25 KTS which may lead to disorganized storm structure and behaving as ordinary cells. The day shift will need to monitor. To the south, Bill should remain well south of the forecast area through tonight. Have maintained some chance POPs across far southeastern sections of the forecast area to blend with neighboring offices. Highs today are expected to be a little warmer with better insolation anticipated across the northern sections of the forecast area. Have mid 80s going for areas that should see the sun today. East central KS may have more more clouds blow off from Bill. Because of this have highs in the lower 80s. For tonight, there are no signs of cold air advection or dryer air moving in, so lows in the mid to upper 60s are expected to prevail. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 157 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 At the start of the long term period, the remnants of T.S. Bill should be over Oklahoma. The models have been consistent with the movement of Bill lifting it through the Ozarks before it gets caught up in the westerlies and carried off the east. Will keep small rain chances in our southeast counties even through the models keep the QPF associated with Bill just southeast of the forecast area. Meanwhile, fast zonal westerly flow continues across the northern tier states. The frontal boundary and sensible weather associated with shortwave energy in the northern stream should remain north of Kansas through Friday. Northeast Kansas will be between Bill and the westerlies to the north thus mainly dry. Easterly boundary layer flow around Bill will shift to the south by Friday evening as Bill departs to the east. Both the 00Z GFS/ECMWF continue to build an upper ridge into the central plains from the desert southwest this weekend and early next week. A weak cold front is still expected to reach northern Kansas Saturday night before lifting back north on Sunday. The 00Z ECMWF is much more bullish with it`s QPF on Sunday over northeast Kansas compared to the GFS. With building heights, really don`t expect any significant frontal push into Kansas and I would not be surprised if the front ever makes it as far south as I70. Will continue small POPS Saturday night through Sunday evening due to the boundary being in the area and an modestly unstable airmass to work with. Forcing will be weak and with warming temperatures aloft should limit precipitation coverage. The ECMWF looks overdone with it`s QPF based on the above. By early next week, the upper level ridge builds over the central plains. The result will be dry and very warm weather just in time for summer. Temperatures will be above normal for Saturday onward and expect several days of highs in the 90s across the area. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Thursday Morning) Issued at 606 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 NAM and RAP forecast soundings show the boundary layer mixing out by 14Z. Therefore have the fog ending between 14 and 15Z. Otherwise think VFR conditions should prevail once the fog burns off. Think precip chances for the terminals is to low to include. The exception would be if outflow from the early morning MCS is able to move into MHK. Then there may be an isolated storms impact the terminal. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Wolters LONG TERM...Johnson AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1000 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1000 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 FOG HAS BURNED OFF IN MOST SPOTS THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROGRESSING NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES THIS MORNING. THESE STORMS WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH AND ALSO UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THE NEAR TERM TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT WILL LIKELY BRUSH THROUGH OUR NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALSO FINE TUNED THE T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST...RESTORED...OBS AND TRENDS. THE FOG WAS LINGERED FOR AN EXTRA HOUR...AS WELL. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY...WASHED OUT BOUNDARY LYING OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH HIGH HUMIDITY AND MILD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IS LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTHWEST MOVING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE OHIO VALLEY...THOUGH DESTINED TO NEVER GET HERE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE SPAWNED OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY THANKS IN PART TO THAT WEAK SFC BOUNDARY. WHILE THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE IS MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING...A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL GOING STRONG OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION AND ACROSS THE BORDER INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA AND ILLINOIS. LOCALLY...TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY UNIFORM IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S ACROSS THE CWA WITH DEWPOINTS A DEGREE OR SO LOWER IN MOST SPOTS WHILE WINDS ARE LIGHT. PATCHY FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...IS NOTED AT JKL AND IN SOME OF THE WEB CAMS...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY OR SPS ATTM. BUILDING CLOUD COVER FROM THE NEARBY FRONT AND STORMS TO THE WEST SHOULD HELP LIMIT ITS IMPACT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE OHIO RIVER BASICALLY ITS NORTHERN EDGE. TO THE SOUTHWEST...THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM BILL ARE SHOWN MOVING FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS TO THE OZARKS BY 00Z FRIDAY. ALONG THE TOP OF THE RIDGE A TRAIN OF MINOR ENERGY WAVES WILL RIPPLE PAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THURSDAY HELPING TO SUPPRESS THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE...WITH SOME ASSISTANCE FROM BILL/S REMNANT CIRCULATION APPROACHING LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS FORECAST WILL BE DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE FEATURES... THOUGH...SO HAVE FAVORED RADAR TRENDS AND THE LATEST HRRR FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST ALONG WITH THE HIGH RESOLUTION NAM12 FOR THE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY PORTIONS. THE SAME INGREDIENTS THAT PRODUCED STORMS...A COUPLE OF WHICH WERE SEVERE...YESTERDAY WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY AND THURSDAY TO FUEL STORM DEVELOPMENT. THESE COMPONENTS ARE...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE AIR...PWS NEAR 2 INCHES...AND INSTABILITY WITH CAPES TO 3000 J/KG BY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...THE LAPSE RATES WILL BE A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. ACCORDINGLY...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR THE REST. ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT...THOUGH...WILL BE THE REMAINS OF THE ONGOING STORMS TO THE WEST. THE HRRR TRIES TO TAKE THE CORE OF THESE OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...BUT THAT PROGRESS IS IN DOUBT GIVEN RADAR TRENDS AND THE NAM12 SOLUTION. WHAT DOES HAPPEN WITH THESE STORMS WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT EFFECT ON OUR INSTABILITY LATER THIS MORNING DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUN CAN GET IN HERE BEFORE THE CLOUDS...OR REMAINING CONVECTIVE CELLS...FROM THE WEST MOVE INTO THE JKL CWA. AT WORST...THIS COULD DELAY THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER STORMS UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE THREAT WILL CERTAINLY REMAIN. FOR THIS...WILL CONTINUE TO HIT IT IN THE HWO AS WELL AS ADDING A HEADLINE TO THE WEB/PARTNER E-MAIL. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINS. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIURNALLY WANE TONIGHT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AGAIN ANTICIPATED IN THIS MUGGY ENVIRONMENT. ON THURSDAY...THE CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS FAVORABLE FOR STORM FORMATION AS THE FRONT LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENS A TAD. BOTH TODAY AND THURSDAY HIGHS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE IN THE LOW 90S...BUT CLOUDS AND CONVECTION WILL LIMIT THE WORST OF THE HEAT...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA TODAY WHERE 85 DEGREES MAY BE A STRETCH. ONCE AGAIN THE T/TD/WINDS GRIDS WERE STARTED OFF FROM THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SUPERBLEND. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE IMPACT THAT THE CONVECTION WILL HAVE ON THESE ELEMENTS CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL FOR THEIR SPECIFICS. DID RAISE TEMPS A SMIDGEN ON THURSDAY WITH SLIGHTLY LESS CONVECTION ANTICIPATED THAN TODAY. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSEST TO THE HIGHER MET NUMBERS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM AS THE MAV APPEARS TO BE OVERLY DRY GIVEN THE POTENTIAL OF THIS PATTERN AND PERHAPS THE COARSER RESOLUTION OF ITS PARENT MODEL WHEN COMPARED TO THAT OF THE MET/S. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 A VERY WET AND ACTIVE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD SEEMS TO BE ON TAP. THE PERIOD BEGINS ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN OPEN SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE PUTTING EAST KENTUCKY IN A TROPICAL TYPE AIRMASS. HEADING INTO FRIDAY...THE REMNANTS OF BILL SETS UP JUST TO THE WEST OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY POISED TO HEAD EAST UP THE OH VALLEY AND WITH IT...A SUBSTANTIAL SHOT OF MOISTURE. THIS IS CONFIRMED WITH THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS AND EURO AND ALSO WITH THE SUPER BLEND. THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND THE REMNANTS OF BILL...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE...COUPLED WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE OH VALLEY WILL BE A FOCUS FOR CONTINUED ROUNDS OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PWATS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 1.75 TO 2.00 INCH RANGE. BY MONDAY THE PATTERN TAKES ON A MORE DIURNAL DRIVEN MAX AND MIN TIME FOR CONVECTION. MONDAY AND TUESDAYS ACTIVITY WILL DRIVEN BY A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE JET. THESE WAVES WILL BRING A COUPLE OF WEAK COLD FRONTS THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER...AS WELL...WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING INTO THE AREA...THIS PATTERN DOES FAVOR A MCS TYPE PATTERN. AT THE SURFACE...THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS WILL KEEP THE AREA IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S MAKING FOR A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS EACH DAY. CERTAINLY THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD RAISES A CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND...POSSIBLY COMPLICATED BY THE MCS PATTERN TO START THE NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS FOR THIS IN THE SYM TAF. OTHERWISE...FOG OF VARYING DENSITY WILL DISSIPATE BY 14Z WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS DEVELOPING BY NOON FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS FOR THIS IN ALL THE TAFS...RUNNING IT THROUGH SUNSET. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST THIS MORNING AT NEAR 10 KTS INTO THE AFTERNOON...THEN DIE OFF AFTER SUNSET. IN ADDITION...DO ANTICIPATE SOME MVFR FOG AROUND TONIGHT AT MOST OF THE SITES. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DJ SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
740 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THE NEAR TERM TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT WILL LIKELY BRUSH THROUGH OUR NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALSO FINE TUNED THE T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST...RESTORED...OBS AND TRENDS. THE FOG WAS LINGERED FOR AN EXTRA HOUR...AS WELL. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY...WASHED OUT BOUNDARY LYING OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH HIGH HUMIDITY AND MILD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IS LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTHWEST MOVING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE OHIO VALLEY...THOUGH DESTINED TO NEVER GET HERE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE SPAWNED OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY THANKS IN PART TO THAT WEAK SFC BOUNDARY. WHILE THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE IS MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING...A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL GOING STRONG OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION AND ACROSS THE BORDER INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA AND ILLINOIS. LOCALLY...TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY UNIFORM IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S ACROSS THE CWA WITH DEWPOINTS A DEGREE OR SO LOWER IN MOST SPOTS WHILE WINDS ARE LIGHT. PATCHY FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...IS NOTED AT JKL AND IN SOME OF THE WEB CAMS...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY OR SPS ATTM. BUILDING CLOUD COVER FROM THE NEARBY FRONT AND STORMS TO THE WEST SHOULD HELP LIMIT ITS IMPACT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE OHIO RIVER BASICALLY ITS NORTHERN EDGE. TO THE SOUTHWEST...THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM BILL ARE SHOWN MOVING FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS TO THE OZARKS BY 00Z FRIDAY. ALONG THE TOP OF THE RIDGE A TRAIN OF MINOR ENERGY WAVES WILL RIPPLE PAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THURSDAY HELPING TO SUPPRESS THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE...WITH SOME ASSISTANCE FROM BILL/S REMNANT CIRCULATION APPROACHING LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS FORECAST WILL BE DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE FEATURES... THOUGH...SO HAVE FAVORED RADAR TRENDS AND THE LATEST HRRR FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST ALONG WITH THE HIGH RESOLUTION NAM12 FOR THE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY PORTIONS. THE SAME INGREDIENTS THAT PRODUCED STORMS...A COUPLE OF WHICH WERE SEVERE...YESTERDAY WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY AND THURSDAY TO FUEL STORM DEVELOPMENT. THESE COMPONENTS ARE...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE AIR...PWS NEAR 2 INCHES...AND INSTABILITY WITH CAPES TO 3000 J/KG BY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...THE LAPSE RATES WILL BE A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. ACCORDINGLY...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR THE REST. ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT...THOUGH...WILL BE THE REMAINS OF THE ONGOING STORMS TO THE WEST. THE HRRR TRIES TO TAKE THE CORE OF THESE OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...BUT THAT PROGRESS IS IN DOUBT GIVEN RADAR TRENDS AND THE NAM12 SOLUTION. WHAT DOES HAPPEN WITH THESE STORMS WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT EFFECT ON OUR INSTABILITY LATER THIS MORNING DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUN CAN GET IN HERE BEFORE THE CLOUDS...OR REMAINING CONVECTIVE CELLS...FROM THE WEST MOVE INTO THE JKL CWA. AT WORST...THIS COULD DELAY THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER STORMS UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE THREAT WILL CERTAINLY REMAIN. FOR THIS...WILL CONTINUE TO HIT IT IN THE HWO AS WELL AS ADDING A HEADLINE TO THE WEB/PARTNER E-MAIL. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINS. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIURNALLY WANE TONIGHT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AGAIN ANTICIPATED IN THIS MUGGY ENVIRONMENT. ON THURSDAY...THE CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS FAVORABLE FOR STORM FORMATION AS THE FRONT LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENS A TAD. BOTH TODAY AND THURSDAY HIGHS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE IN THE LOW 90S...BUT CLOUDS AND CONVECTION WILL LIMIT THE WORST OF THE HEAT...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA TODAY WHERE 85 DEGREES MAY BE A STRETCH. ONCE AGAIN THE T/TD/WINDS GRIDS WERE STARTED OFF FROM THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SUPERBLEND. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE IMPACT THAT THE CONVECTION WILL HAVE ON THESE ELEMENTS CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL FOR THEIR SPECIFICS. DID RAISE TEMPS A SMIDGEN ON THURSDAY WITH SLIGHTLY LESS CONVECTION ANTICIPATED THAN TODAY. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSEST TO THE HIGHER MET NUMBERS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM AS THE MAV APPEARS TO BE OVERLY DRY GIVEN THE POTENTIAL OF THIS PATTERN AND PERHAPS THE COARSER RESOLUTION OF ITS PARENT MODEL WHEN COMPARED TO THAT OF THE MET/S. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 A VERY WET AND ACTIVE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD SEEMS TO BE ON TAP. THE PERIOD BEGINS ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN OPEN SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE PUTTING EAST KENTUCKY IN A TROPICAL TYPE AIRMASS. HEADING INTO FRIDAY...THE REMNANTS OF BILL SETS UP JUST TO THE WEST OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY POISED TO HEAD EAST UP THE OH VALLEY AND WITH IT...A SUBSTANTIAL SHOT OF MOISTURE. THIS IS CONFIRMED WITH THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS AND EURO AND ALSO WITH THE SUPER BLEND. THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND THE REMNANTS OF BILL...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE...COUPLED WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE OH VALLEY WILL BE A FOCUS FOR CONTINUED ROUNDS OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PWATS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 1.75 TO 2.00 INCH RANGE. BY MONDAY THE PATTERN TAKES ON A MORE DIURNAL DRIVEN MAX AND MIN TIME FOR CONVECTION. MONDAY AND TUESDAYS ACTIVITY WILL DRIVEN BY A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE JET. THESE WAVES WILL BRING A COUPLE OF WEAK COLD FRONTS THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER...AS WELL...WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING INTO THE AREA...THIS PATTERN DOES FAVOR A MCS TYPE PATTERN. AT THE SURFACE...THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS WILL KEEP THE AREA IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S MAKING FOR A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS EACH DAY. CERTAINLY THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD RAISES A CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND...POSSIBLY COMPLICATED BY THE MCS PATTERN TO START THE NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS FOR THIS IN THE SYM TAF. OTHERWISE...FOG OF VARYING DENSITY WILL DISSIPATE BY 14Z WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS DEVELOPING BY NOON FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS FOR THIS IN ALL THE TAFS...RUNNING IT THROUGH SUNSET. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST THIS MORNING AT NEAR 10 KTS INTO THE AFTERNOON...THEN DIE OFF AFTER SUNSET. IN ADDITION...DO ANTICIPATE SOME MVFR FOG AROUND TONIGHT AT MOST OF THE SITES. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
642 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 SAT IMAGERY SHOWS DECREASING TREND IN CLOUD COVER IS FASTER THAN EXPECTED. SO THE SKY FCST WAS UPDATED THRU MIDDAY TO REFLECT THIS. SHOULD BE M/SUNNY THIS AM. EQUIPMENT: YOU MAY BE AWARE THAT OBS WERE MISSING FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THIS WAS DUE TO FAA MAINTENANCE. OBS RETURNED AS OF 10Z. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 ALOFT: THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN OVER THE NRN USA THRU DAWN TOMORROW...WITH A VERY LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN WNW FLOW OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. SUBTROPICAL HIGHS WILL CONT OVER THE SW AND SE USA...WITH THE REMNANTS OF BILL LIFTING N INTO OK. SURFACE: THE POLAR FRONT WAS QUASI-STATIONARY ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE WESTERLIES AND EXTENDED FROM WY-NEB E INTO THE OH VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY THRU TONIGHT...AND WILL BE MODULATED/MODIFIED BY TSTM ACTIVITY. NOW: THE REMNANTS OF A DECAYING MCS ARE MOVING THRU AT THIS TIME. RAIN-COOLED OUTFLOW HAS OVERTAKEN THE ENTIRE FCST AREA. WE DID SEE MULTIPLE GUSTS UP TO 43 MPH ACROSS FURNAS/HARLAN/FRANKLIN COUNTIES 12AM-2AM WHEN IT WAS MORE POTENT. TODAY: DECREASING CLOUDS THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW REGARDING TSTM REDEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO A LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING. THE 00Z 4KM WRF-NMM HAS AN EXCELLENT HANDLE ON WHAT IS GOING ON NOW...IT`S JUST TOO SLOW BY 4 HRS. IT SUGGESTS THE BEST DEVELOPMENT WILL BE S AND E OF THE FCST AREA...PROBABLY ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GENERATED BY THIS MORNING`S MCS. DEVELOPMENTS IN THE RAIN- COOLED AIR OVER THE FCST AREA LOOK VERY ISOLATED/MINIMAL...AND IF THERE IS NOT ENOUGH TSTM ACTIVITY TO FORM A COMMON COLD POOL...WHAT LITTLE ACTIVITY FIRES SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. THE 06Z HRRR HAS A SIMILAR IDEA AT 21Z. ENOUGH CLEARING TODAY SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY... WITH MLCAPE 2000-2500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR 30-40 KTS...HIGHEST OVER S-CNTRL NEB. LOW-LVL VEERING RESULTS IN 0-3 KM SRH OF 150 J/KG. THIS WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL CONVECTIVE MODE. SPC HAS MOST OF THE FCST AREA OUTLOOKED IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR. TONIGHT: IT ALL HINGES ON WHAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON. IF ONLY A FEW ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE FCST AREA...THEY WILL DIMINISH AND END MID-LATE EVE. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH DEVELOPMENTS TO THE W. THE SIGNAL IS NOT GREAT...BUT CELL MERGERS COULD RESULT IN AN MCS THAT COULD PROPAGATE INTO NEB. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW GIVEN THE LACK OF MODEL QPF CLUSTERING AND LOW SREF QPF PROBABILITIES. GIVEN LOW FCST CONFIDENCE...POPS ARE NO HIGHER THAN 20% TODAY- TONIGHT. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SUBTLE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING WILL BE NOTED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE TO START THE LONG- TERM FORECAST PERIOD AT 12Z THURSDAY...AND ALTHOUGH THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST TO FINISH THE WEEK...THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS OF ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SUBTLE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATION WILL CLEAR THE AREA THURSDAY AND AS A RESULT...~20% POPS CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS PERTURBATION IS EXPECTED TO HAVE CLEARED OUR AREA BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THERE ALSO REMAIN INDICATIONS OF HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION PERHAPS SUSTAINING ITSELF LONG ENOUGH TO IMPACT FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY EVENING AND AS A RESULT...~20% POPS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR FAR WEST 00-06Z FRIDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...THE FIRST UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA...THUS ELIMINATING ANY APPRECIABLE OMEGA. THIS...AND THE PRESENCE OF A HEALTHY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC CAPPING INVERSION EACH AFTERNOON...RESULTS IN A POP-FREE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MORE INTO THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY TIME PERIOD...ANOTHER ROUND OF MULTIPLE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATIONS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FIRST RIDGE COULD BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION AND AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD WITH 20-30% POPS ACROSS VARIOUS PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST NEXT TUESDAY AS THE SECOND UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. AS WAS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...RESPECTABLE BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE ...ALONG WITH VARYING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PERTURBATIONS...WILL PROMOTE VARYING LEVELS OF POTENTIAL ENERGY FROM DAY TO DAY DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD. FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING...ENERGY LEVELS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 1000-2000J/KG ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED. GIVEN THIS...WILL CONTINUE MENTIONING THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE HWO FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AIR MASS EARLY NEXT WEEK SUGGESTS STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER COULD RESULT SHOULD CONVECTION DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL...BUT AT THIS TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TO INTRODUCE ANY MENTION OF SEVERE WEATHER THAT FAR INTO THE FUTURE. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS WILL PROMOTE WARM WEATHER DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S AND 90S AND LOWS IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S. AT THIS TIME THE WARMEST DAY APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS LIKELY CLIMBING INTO THE 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWA AND PERHAPS NEARING THE CENTURY MARK ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THESE TEMPERATURE READINGS...IF REALIZED...WOULD HELP PROMOTE HEAT INDEX READINGS OF 100-102 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. NOT YET READY TO INTRODUCE HEAT WORDING IN THE HWO FOR THIS WEEKEND...BUT THIS MAY BE SOMETHING TO CONSIDER IN THE COMING DAYS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z THU MORNING) ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 TODAY: VFR. CIG AND VSBY UNLIMITED THRU 17Z THEN SCT CU WILL DEVELOP WITH BASES LIFTING TO 4-5K FT. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF A TSTM WITH IFR VSBY AFTER 21Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL BE VRB UNDER 10 KTS AND ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE LINGERING EFFECTS OF DISSIPATED OVERNIGHT TSTM ACTIVITY AND A STALL FRONT. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TONIGHT: A LOW PROBABILITY OF A TSTM. OTHERWISE MULTI-LAYERED VFR CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 8K FT...DEPENDING ON WHERE TSTMS DEVELOP. WINDS PROBABLY SE UNDER 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HALBLAUB SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB LONG TERM...BRYANT AVIATION...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1122 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTH LIFTS BACK NORTH WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM BILL REMNANTS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATE... TRACKING A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS HEADING INTO THE HTS AREA...BUT CURRENTLY IN A LULL RIGHT NOW IN TERMS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CWA. NORTHWESTERN ZONES RECEIVING STRATIFORM RAIN FROM AN OLD CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...AND THIS MAY AFFECT EARLY DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. MEANWHILE...SOUTHERN ZONES ARE GETTING EXPOSURE TO SUN THIS MORNING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... 00Z NAM NOT HANDLING THE WAVE COMING OUT OF THE MIDWEST VERY WELL...SO RELIED MORE ON THE HRRR FOR POPS TODAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL SLOWLY RETURN NORTHWARD TODAY. AM A BIT CONCERNED WITH POTENTIAL FOR WATER PROBLEMS...BUT THE MORNING ARRIVAL OF THE FIRST WAVE WILL LIMIT HEATING. ALSO...MUCH OF THE NORTHERN COUNTIES HAD A BREAK FROM HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS SITUATION HOWEVER. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH STILL OVER THE SOUTHEAST US PLENTY OF SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE HIGH ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA. THIS WILL MEAN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS. EVEN WITH DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT TIMING EACH FEATURE IS VERY DIFFICULT SO WENT WITH MORE OF A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH. WITH SUCH A TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE AND WHAT WILL ESSENTIALLY BE A WEEK OF HIGH PWS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EACH DAY BRINGS ON MORE OF A CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO. AT SOME POINT IN TIME A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS ON THURSDAY FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. THE LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES WITH THIS. IN ADDITION THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT POSSIBLE WIND GUSTS FOR THE MOUNTAINS. WITH SUCH SATURATED SOILS THIS COULD CAUSE SOME TREES TO FALL. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE REMNANTS OF WHAT WAS TROPICAL STORM BILL SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE START OF THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES CLOUDY AND RAIN CHANGES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF THE NEXT WEEK. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS PERIOD AS CONTINUED RAINFALL IS LIKELY IN THE PATH OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS IS LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR TIMING. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. && .AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING. A DISTURBANCE WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH SOUTHEAST OHIO INTO NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA LATER THIS MORNING. THE STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD GRADUALLY RAISE INTO A CUMULUS DECK DURING THE DAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FORMING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. DUE TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...CLOUD DECKS COULD FORM AT MOST ANY LEVEL TONIGHT...LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE. BEST BET WOULD BE A STRATUS DECK ACROSS NORTHERN WV AND SOUTHEAST OHIO. FOG IS A POSSIBILITY WHERE CLOUDS DO NOT FORM. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW THIS MORNING...MEDIUM THIS AFTERNOON...LOW TONIGHT. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HEIGHT OF A STRATUS DECK THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT COULD VARY CONSIDERABLY. DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AIRMASS...SPECIFIC TIMING AND INTENSITY ARE NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS AFTER THE FIRST FEW HOURS. FOG COULD BE MORE AN ISSUE TONIGHT. .AFTER 12Z THURSDAY... BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. TIMING AND INTENSITY OF MORNING FOG WILL DEPENDS OF LOCATIONS THAT GET RAIN AND CAN CLEAR OUT AT NIGHT. && WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FB/RPY/JMV NEAR TERM...RPY/26 SHORT TERM...FB LONG TERM...JSH/JMV AVIATION...RPY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1016 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTH LIFTS BACK NORTH WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM BILL REMNANTS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATE... TRACKING A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS HEADING INTO THE HTS AREA...BUT CURRENTLY IN A LULL RIGHT NOW IN TERMS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CWA. NORTHWESTERN ZONES RECEIVING STRATIFORM RAIN FROM AN OLD CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...AND THIS MAY AFFECT EARLY DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. MEANWHILE...SOUTHERN ZONES ARE GETTING EXPOSURE TO SUN THIS MORNING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... 00Z NAM NOT HANDLING THE WAVE COMING OUT OF THE MIDWEST VERY WELL...SO RELIED MORE ON THE HRRR FOR POPS TODAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL SLOWLY RETURN NORTHWARD TODAY. AM A BIT CONCERNED WITH POTENTIAL FOR WATER PROBLEMS...BUT THE MORNING ARRIVAL OF THE FIRST WAVE WILL LIMIT HEATING. ALSO...MUCH OF THE NORTHERN COUNTIES HAD A BREAK FROM HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS SITUATION HOWEVER. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH STILL OVER THE SOUTHEAST US PLENTY OF SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE HIGH ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA. THIS WILL MEAN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS. EVEN WITH DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT TIMING EACH FEATURE IS VERY DIFFICULT SO WENT WITH MORE OF A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH. WITH SUCH A TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE AND WHAT WILL ESSENTIALLY BE A WEEK OF HIGH PWS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EACH DAY BRINGS ON MORE OF A CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO. AT SOME POINT IN TIME A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS ON THURSDAY FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. THE LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BOB WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES WITH THIS. IN ADDITION THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT POSSIBLE WIND GUSTS FOR THE MOUNTAINS. WITH SUCH SATURATED SOILS THIS COULD CAUSE SOME TREES TO FALL. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE REMNANTS OF WHAT WAS TROPICAL STORM BILL SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE START OF THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES CLOUDY AND RAIN CHANGES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF THE NEXT WEEK. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS PERIOD AS CONTINUED RAINFALL IS LIKELY IN THE PATH OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS IS LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR TIMING. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING. A DISTURBANCE WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH SOUTHEAST OHIO INTO NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA LATER THIS MORNING. THE STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD GRADUALLY RAISE INTO A CUMULUS DECK DURING THE DAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FORMING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. DUE TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...CLOUD DECKS COULD FORM AT MOST ANY LEVEL TONIGHT...LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE. BEST BET WOULD BE A STRATUS DECK ACROSS NORTHERN WV AND SOUTHEAST OHIO. FOG IS A POSSIBILITY WHERE CLOUDS DO NOT FORM. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW THIS MORNING...MEDIUM THIS AFTERNOON...LOW TONIGHT. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HEIGHT OF A STRATUS DECK THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT COULD VARY CONSIDERABLY. DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AIRMASS...SPECIFIC TIMING AND INTENSITY ARE NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS AFTER THE FIRST FEW HOURS. FOG COULD BE MORE AN ISSUE TONIGHT. .AFTER 12Z THURSDAY... BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. TIMING AND INTENSITY OF MORNING FOG WILL DEPENDS OF LOCATIONS THAT GET RAIN AND CAN CLEAR OUT AT NIGHT. && WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FB/RPY/JMV NEAR TERM...RPY/26 SHORT TERM...FB LONG TERM...JSH/JMV AVIATION...RPY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
557 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTH LIFTS BACK NORTH WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM BILL REMNANTS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 00Z NAM NOT HANDLING THE WAVE COMING OUT OF THE MIDWEST VERY WELL...SO RELIED MORE ON THE HRRR FOR POPS TODAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL SLOWLY RETURN NORTHWARD TODAY. AM A BIT CONCERNED WITH POTENTIAL FOR WATER PROBLEMS...BUT THE MORNING ARRIVAL OF THE FIRST WAVE WILL LIMIT HEATING. ALSO...MUCH OF THE NORTHERN COUNTIES HAD A BREAK FROM HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS SITUATION HOWEVER. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH STILL OVER THE SOUTHEAST US PLENTY OF SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE HIGH ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA. THIS WILL MEAN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS. EVEN WITH DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT TIMING EACH FEATURE IS VERY DIFFICULT SO WENT WITH MORE OF A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH. WITH SUCH A TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE AND WHAT WILL ESSENTIALLY BE A WEEK OF HIGH PWS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EACH DAY BRINGS ON MORE OF A CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO. AT SOME POINT IN TIME A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS ON THURSDAY FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. THE LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BOB WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES WITH THIS. IN ADDITION THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT POSSIBLE WIND GUSTS FOR THE MOUNTAINS. WITH SUCH SATURATED SOILS THIS COULD CAUSE SOME TREES TO FALL. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE REMNANTS OF WHAT WAS TROPICAL STORM BILL SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE START OF THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES CLOUDY AND RAIN CHANGES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF THE NEXT WEEK. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS PERIOD AS CONTINUED RAINFALL IS LIKELY IN THE PATH OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS IS LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR TIMING. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING. A DISTURBANCE WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH SOUTHEAST OHIO INTO NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA LATER THIS MORNING. THE STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD GRADUALLY RAISE INTO A CUMULUS DECK DURING THE DAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FORMING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. DUE TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...CLOUD DECKS COULD FORM AT MOST ANY LEVEL TONIGHT...LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE. BEST BET WOULD BE A STRATUS DECK ACROSS NORTHERN WV AND SOUTHEAST OHIO. FOG IS A POSSIBILITY WHERE CLOUDS DO NOT FORM. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW THIS MORNING...MEDIUM THIS AFTERNOON...LOW TONIGHT. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HEIGHT OF A STRATUS DECK THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT COULD VARY CONSIDERABLY. DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AIRMASS...SPECIFIC TIMING AND INTENSITY ARE NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS AFTER THE FIRST FEW HOURS. FOG COULD BE MORE AN ISSUE TONIGHT. .AFTER 12Z THURSDAY... BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. TIMING AND INTENSITY OF MORNING FOG WILL DEPENDS OF LOCATIONS THAT GET RAIN AND CAN CLEAR OUT AT NIGHT. && WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FB/RPY/JMV NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...FB LONG TERM...JSH/JMV AVIATION...RPY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1024 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. A WEAK FRONT OVER THE AREA WILL OSCILLATE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND AND BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY INTERACT WITH MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL TO BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1005 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... WEAK FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA THIS MORNING AS DEPICTED BY A RATHER SHARP GRADIENT OF NW TO SE ORIENTED LOW LEVEL THETA-E OVER THE NORTH/NE ATTM. ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY INCLUDING THE BLUE RIDGE...SEEING QUITE A BIT OF MID CLOUD CANOPY WITH BREAKS OVER THE FAR WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT IMPULSE ALOFT MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST. THIS FEATURE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS MODELS STRING IT EAST JUST NORTH OF THE REGION LATER ON. HOWEVER DEGREE OF ORGANIZATION APPEARS KEY TO WHETHER OR NOT MUCH OF THE AREA SEES JUST SCATTERED COVERAGE AIDED BY OROGRAPHICS/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ONCE THE MID DECK ERODES OR DOES A COMPLEX ORGANIZE AND SLIDE SE ALONG THE FRONT/THETA-E GRADIENT ESPCLY LATER ON. MUCH OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR TEND TO KEEP A MORE CLUSTERED/BANDED SCENARIO WITH FOCUS EVENTUALLY TRENDING BACK TO ANOTHER UPSTREAM WAVE IN THE OHIO VALLEY LATER. THINK THIS MAY BE SOMEWHAT OVERDONE GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR LATER STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG OLD OUTFLOW FROM THE TAIL OF THE CONVECTION PASSING THROUGH NE KY ATTM...AND SPILL SE INTO THE WEST WHERE HEATING AND FORECAST/MODIFIED CAPES OF AROUND 2K J/KG APPEAR LIKELY. THIS STILL PUTS THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE NW/WEST WHERE BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELYS A BIT SOONER BEFORE UNFOLDING CONVECTION TO THE SE ESPCLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY THIS EVENING IF SOME SORT OF MCS DOES EVOLVE PER NEW NAM. INCREASING WIND FIELDS ALOFT PER 30+ KT UNIDIRECTIONAL WESTERLY JET WOULD SUPPORT MORE OF A SEVERE THREAT THAN IN RECENT DAYS WITH STRONG WINDS THE MAIN THREAT IF CAN GET ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND DRYING ALOFT TO SUPPORT HIGHER DCAPES LATER ON. HIGH TEMPS APPEAR A BIT COOLER TODAY GIVEN CLOUDS AT THE ONSET AND THE WEAK FRONT OVER PARTS OF THE REGION. HOWEVER WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH SUN TO PUNCH READINGS BACK INTO THE 90S EAST...AND 80S WEST SO ONLY TRIMMED HIGHS BACK A CAT OR SO NORTH/NE AND ACTUALLY RAISED A FEW DEGREES SOUTH OF THE FRONT OVER THE SE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 500 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN TODAY IS FOR POTENTIAL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...MCS...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA...ESP THE VIRGINIAS...DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL VIRGINIA...WEST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS FRONT IS POSITIONED ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH WHICH IS ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY WILL SERVE AS A PATH FOR WHICH ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION WILL FOLLOW. OUR FORECAST AREA IS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STRONGER WESTERLIES ALOFT...AND RIGHT ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH. THE SURFACE FRONT IS VERY CLOSE TO OUR NORTHERN CWA BORDER AND IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTH TO ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE HWY 460 CORRIDOR BY THIS EVENING. THIS IS PROBLEMATIC IN THAT IT PUTS US ON THE RECEIVING END OF ANY ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION THAT MAY MOVE DOWNSTREAM OR DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS SUGGEST THE OUTFLOW FROM ONGOING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE FRONT TODAY...STORMS REDEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. CONCERN IS THAT TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS WILL COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING WHEN CAPE WILL BE AT A MAXIMA. AS SUCH...THINK STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ARE LIKELY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DAMAGING WINDS. A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...MAIN THREAT WINDOW 4PM-10PM. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE DOWN A FEW DEGREES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER. IN SPITE OF THE ONE OR TWO DEGREE REPRIEVE...IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM AND HUMID WITH NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 430 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... WILL START THURSDAY MORNING OFF POTENTIALLY WITH THE REMNANTS OF A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX EXITING OUR AREA TO THE EAST...WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH WILL BRING WITH IT WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDFLOW WHICH WILL LIMIT AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ISOLATED/MAYBE WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY...WITH BETTER CHANCES OVER THE MOUNTAINS. INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE MODEST...SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY STRONG STORM INTENSITY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN FOR FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SIMILAR TO FRIDAY... SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO POP UP DURING LATE MORNING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN PULSY FASHION. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES EAST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER WHILE THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE TOWARD OUR AREA. WITH BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...MAY SEE STORMS SOLIDIFY INTO A LINE AS THEY PASS THROUGH OUR AREA...AND DESPITE THE LACK OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STORMS BECOME SEVERE. THE MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY WILL PUSH EAST OF OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...LEAVING ONLY LINGERING SHOWER INTO DAWN SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT BACKDOORS ITS WAY IN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WINDFLOW WILL NOT TAKE LONG TO SHIFT SOUTHERLY AGAIN ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL GET CAUGHT UP IN THE WESTERLY FLOW AND SWING SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY... ALTHOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DIFFERENCE IN WHERE THE REMNANTS WILL TRACK. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CARRIED QUICKLY EAST THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS THE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH 2.0+ INCH PWATS ENCOUNTERS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK AND CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...RANGING FROM THE MID 80S WEST TO THE LOW/MID 90S EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... CONVECTION LOOKS TO BECOME MORE DIURNAL WITH A TRAILING TROUGH AXIS CROSSING THE REGION SUNDAY AND AHEAD OF A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM COOL FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON. WEAKNESS OF BOTH FEATURES SUGGEST MAINLY LOW END CHANCE POPS WITH THE FRONT POSSIBLY DROPPING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW THE FRONT TUESDAY PERHAPS BRINGING A BIT DRIER AIR BUT AT LEAST STILL THE NEED FOR SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS WITH POTENTIAL FOR AN IMPULSE TO DROP IN FROM THE NW TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OTRW CONTINUED PERSISTENCE WITH HIGHS 80S WEST AND LOW/MID 90S EAST...EXCEPT A FEW DEGREES COOLER PER CLOUDS/SHRA SATURDAY...AND AGAIN BEHIND THE WEAK BOUNDARY ON TUESDAY...BUT LIKELY HOTTER SUNDAY WITH SINKING MOTION/DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE BILL REMNANT. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 820 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... SEEING MOSTLY MID DECK ACROSS THE REGION TO INIT THIS MORNING WITH AREAS OF MVFR STRATO-CU OVER THE NW WHERE EXPECT LOWER CIGS TO PERSIST UNTIL BETTER HEATING CAUSES CLOUDS TO MIX OUT A BIT. THIS ALONG WITH EROSION OF THE GOING MID DECK SHOULD ALLOW A TRANSFORMATION TO MORE OF A VFR CU FIELD BEFORE ADDED CONVECTION DEVELOPS. ONLY EXCEPTION COULD BE OVER NE SECTIONS AROUND KLYH WHERE THE RESIDUAL FRONT MAY CAUSE CLOUDS TO LINGER LONGER. OTHERWISE...WILL BE WATCHING UPSTREAM THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL STEER THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATER IN THE DAY. CURRENT THINKING IS FOR AN MCS OR CLUSTERS OF STORMS TO MOVE/DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SOMETIME BETWEEN 20 UTC/4PM AND 02Z/10 PM THIS EVENING. MODELS SEEM TO CONCUR...ALTHOUGH RECENT SOLUTIONS HAVE BACKED UP WIDESPREAD COVERAGE FARTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER IF THINGS ORGANIZE MORE THEN DENSITY MAY CAUSE A COMPLEX TO SINK FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON PER EARLIER GUIDANCE. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE MCS WOULD BE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATION WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS OF WEATHER THRU THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH REMNANTS OF BILL THAT SHOULD GET CAUGHT INTO THE UPPER FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS COULD RESULT IN MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR EXCEPT THE TYPICAL FOG FORMATION AT LWB/BCB AND AT TIMES LYH THROUGH THE WEEK EARLY MORNING TIME FRAME. && .CLIMATE... AS OF 200 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... RECORD HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY JUNE 17TH... STATION RECORD HIGHS/YEAR ROANOKE 96/1944 LYNCHBURG 96/1944 DANVILLE 99/1981 BLACKSBURG 88/1994 BLUEFIELD 86/2007 LEWISBURG 88/2014 && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JH/PM NEAR TERM...JH/PM SHORT TERM...NF LONG TERM...JH/NF AVIATION...JH/PM CLIMATE...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
945 AM MST WED JUN 17 2015 .SYNOPSIS...EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON INTO THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH VERY HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS WEEKEND. SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY AT THIS TIME...WITH A FEW TO SCATTERED CIRRIFORM CLOUDS ELSEWHERE ACROSS SE ARIZONA. THE BULK OF THESE CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO FROM TUCSON SWWD INTO NWRN SONORA. A SOMEWHAT MOIST REGIME CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA...WITH DEWPOINTS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS VALID 16Z RANGING FROM THE MID 40S-LOWER 50S. THESE TEMPS WERE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. SURFACE TEMPS VALID 16Z WERE NEARLY 2-4 DEGS F LOWER VERSUS THIS TIME TUE. 17/12Z KTWC SOUNDING PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 0.95 INCH WAS NEARLY 0.10 INCH HIGHER VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. THE ENVIRONMENT WAS MODESTLY UNSTABLE AS PER VARIOUS STABILITY INDICES. 17/15Z RUC HRRR DEPICTS THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TO OCCUR ON THE CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS GENERALLY BETWEEN 18Z-19Z TODAY. THESE PRECIP ECHOES ARE THEN PROGGED TO MOVE SWWD AND INTO THE VICINITY OF DOUGLAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIP IS THEN DEPICTED TO DIMINISH QUICKLY ACROSS FAR SERN SECTIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. AT ANY RATE...GIVEN THE TRAJECTORY OF THESE CELLS AS PER THE RUC HRRR...AND THE SEVERE WIND GUST OF 50 KTS RECORDED AT THE KDUG ASOS LAST EVENING...AM CONCERNED THAT A SIMILAR EVENT MAY HAPPEN DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE POTENTIAL CERTAINLY EXISTS FOR BRIEF WIND GUSTS AT LEAST IN THE 35-45 KT RANGE WITH ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS THAT DEVELOP. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN EMPHASIS FOR THIS FORECAST AREA TODAY...AND DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...IS DAYTIME TEMPS THAT WILL BE SEVERAL DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. ASIDE FROM THE ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS FAR SERN SECTIONS INTO THIS EVENING...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU SUN. PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL. && .AVIATION...VALID THROUGH 18/18Z. EXPECT ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA SE OF KTUS DEVELOPING AROUND 18Z TODAY AND CONTINUING INTO THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MAINLY OCCUR FROM NEAR KFHU EASTWARD TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...INCLUDING KDUG. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 KTS. ANY -TSRA/-SHRA SHOULD END BY 18/06Z. OTHERWISE...A FEW TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 8-12K FT AGL WILL PREVAIL INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/NWLY AT 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS. SURFACE WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS AT OTHER TIMES. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS. && .FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN COCHISE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 5 TO 15 PERCENT. EXPECT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON GUSTS DUE TO STRONG DAYTIME HEATING. PERIODS OF HAINES 6 CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEN...A MOISTURE INCREASE WILL RESULT IN RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TO MAINLY EASTERN AREAS NEXT TUESDAY. && .PREV DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 17/00Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NOSING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN ARIZONA. PLENTY OF DRY MID TO UPPER LEVEL AIR REMAINS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND INTO MOST OF ARIZONA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE WHERE HIGHER MOISTURE LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION AND INTO A LARGE PART OF OLD AND NEW MEXICO. THE SATELLITE DERIVED BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS VALUES OF AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA... WITH VALUES GENERALLY RANGING FROM 0.6 - 0.8 INCHES ACROSS MY FORECAST AREA AND WELL OVER AN INCH TO OUR EAST AND SOUTH...WITH VALUES EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES JUST SOUTH OF COCHISE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST SONORA. YESTERDAYS 17/00Z KTWC SOUNDING SHOWED A PW OF 0.88 INCHES. THE LATEST GPS PW VALUES FROM THE U OF A INDICATE THAT SIMILAR READINGS CONTINUE AT THIS HOUR. MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR TUCSON SHOW PW`S DROPPING SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 0.6 -0.7 INCHES BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST TODAY...BRINGING THE DRIER AIR JUST TO OUR WEST FARTHER EAST. HOWEVER...AS THIS OCCURS...MOISTURE WILL STILL BE JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AND I CAN`T RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTION OF MY FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON... ESPECIALLY AFTER THE FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY YESTERDAY. SO...I KEPT SINGLE DIGIT `SILENT` POPS ALONG THE BORDER WITH NEW MEXICO AND THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ADJACENT TO COCHISE COUNTY...BUT ALSO KEPT ISOLATED ACTIVITY FOR THE DOUGLAS AND CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS OF EAST CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS AGREES WITH THE MOS NUMBERS FROM THE GFS AND NAM FOR DOUGLAS. OUR NEXT PROBLEM OF THE DAY CONTINUES TO BE THE VERY HOT TEMPERATURES THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY TO OUR WEST EVENTUALLY SHIFTS TO OVERHEAD AND WE HEAT UP EVEN MORE. LOCAL STUDY CORRELATING HIGH TEMPS WITH 850-700MB THICKNESS VALUES INDICATES 111 DEGS FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR TUCSON. MEANWHILE...MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS FROM BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW 110 DEGS FOR FRIDAY... WHILE EURO REFLECTS THE SAME FOR THURSDAY AS WELL. BASED ON THIS...DECIDED TO GO WITH 110 DEGS AT TUCSON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. I EVEN INCREASED HIGHS A BIT FOR TODAY TO 109 DEGS FOR TUCSON AND THE SAME FOR THURSDAY. BY SUNDAY THE HIGH WILL BE JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MARCHING WEST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING OVER THAT GENERAL VICINITY LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE WILL BE JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST. FOR NOW JUST EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY BETWEEN TUCSON AND THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. FOR TUCSON...HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY 8 TO 10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN 3 TO 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL THEREAFTER. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 7 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON DISCUSSION/AVIATION...FRANCIS PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MOLLERE FIRE WEATHER...FRENCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
307 PM MDT WED JUN 17 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 222 PM MDT WED JUN 17 2015 A MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE IS STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND TO PRODUCE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. SOME CAPPING IN THE MID LEVELS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE HRRR DOES SHOW THE STORMS MOVING INTO THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING. BEST CHC OF SVR STORMS WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF DENVER...STILL ENOUGH CAPE/SHEAR TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS. OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. ON THURSDAY...HOTTER AND DRIER IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO COLORADO FM THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE FLOW ALOFT WEAKENING. OVERALL TSTM COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN TODAY. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 222 PM MDT WED JUN 17 2015 UPPER RIDGING IS PROGGED OVER COLORADO FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD... THE EXTENDED PERIOD TOO. THE FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO BE WEAK AND NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY. THERE IS BENIGN SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY ON THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL ADHERE TO NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERNS FOR THE MOST PART. THERE IS SOME STRONGER NORTHEASTERLIES ON SATURDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT MAY GET INTO THE LOWER FOOTHILLS. FOR MOISTURE...THERE IS SOME THURSDAY EVENING...THEN IT DRIES OUT FROM FRIDAY ONWARD. THE QPF FIELDS HAVE A BIT OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL FOR THE CWA THURSDAY EVENING...THE MOST OVER THE FAR EAST. THERE IS VERY LITTLE NO RAINFALL PROGGED THURSDAY OVERNIGHT THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING. WILL GO WITH MINIMAL POPS THURSDAY EVENING...THEN DRY FOR THE CWA THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING. FOR TEMPERATURES...FRIDAY`S HIGHS LOOK TO BE 2-4 C WARMER THAN THURSDAY`S. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE FIRST 90 DEGREE READING OF 2015. SATURDAY`S HIGHS ARE A TAD COOLER. FOR THE LATER DAYS... SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THERE IS MORE UPPER RIDGING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FLOW ALOFT STAYS PRETTY WEAK...BUT IT DOES BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY IN DIRECTION BY MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE NORMALS AND THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 222 PM MDT WED JUN 17 2015 VFR CIGS/VSBYS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BEST CHC OF TSTMS WILL OCCUR IN THE 22-02Z PERIOD. BRIEF BKN CIGS 060-070KFT AGL IF ONE PASSES OVERHEAD...BUT VCTS WILL SUFFICE AT THIS TIME. TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 222 PM MDT WED JUN 17 2015 OVERALL THREAT WILL BE LOW TODAY FOR STORM TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING...WITH THE STORMS STILL MOVING AT A FAIRLY DECENT RATE. MAIN CHANGE TO THE HIGHLIGHTS WAS TO EXTEND THE FLOOD WARNING INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON...FOR THE SOUTH PLATTE IN EAST CENTRAL PARK/SOUTHWESTERN DOUGLAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL JEFFERSON COUNTIES...FURTHER DOWNSTREAM TO CHEESMAN RESERVOIR TO INCLUDE ADDITIONAL CAMPGROUNDS IMPACTED BY FLOODWATERS. NO CHANGES TO THE REST OF THE ONGOING FLOOD WARNINGS ALONG THE SOUTH PLATTE. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...COOPER LONG TERM...RJK AVIATION...COOPER HYDROLOGY...COOPER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
335 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR THE IA/MN BORDER TO THE QUAD CITIES AND THEN TO NORTHERN INDIANA. NORTH OF THE FRONT DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE LOWER 60S (IN THE 50S IN WI) BUT TO THE SOUTH DEWS WERE WELL INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE CWA WERE IN THE 70S WHICH HAS BEEN HELD DOWN BY EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS TODAY. A COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING INTO SW MN AND INTO WESTERN IA AND THEN TO NW KS. MIDWEST MOSAIC RADAR LOOPS INDICATE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OCCURING IN THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM CENTRAL MO TO WESTERN IL AND THEN INTO EASTERN IL. ELSEWHERE... A FEW STRONGER STORMS WERE NOTED IN NORTHCENTRAL IOWA AND SE MN WHERE SBCAPES WERE 2500 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WAS STRONG AT 50 KNOTS. ACROSS THE DVN CWA DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER INSTABILITY WAS VERY MINIMAL AND SHEAR IS WEAK AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THIS WAY. PRECIPITABLE WATERS IN THE CWA WERE AROUND 1.5 INCHES WITH THE OVER 2 INCH PWATS FROM TX TO SOUTHERN IL. TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL WAS LOCATED IN THE DALLAS/FT. WORTH METROPLEX EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 FORECAST FOCUS ON CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. TONIGHT...OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE VERY MUCH IN DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTIVE TRENDS. ECMWF IS ESSENTIALLY DRY WHILE THE GFS IS THE WETTEST. THE NAM IGNITES THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN OUR FAR SOUTH WHILE THE HI-RES HRRR MESO MODEL BRINGS WEAKENING THUNDERSTORMS INTO OUR NW CWA THIS EVENING AND LEAVES THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT DRY. I WILL ESSENTIALLY BE TAKING A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH AND LEAVING POPS IN THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE. FORCING/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK ALONG WITH MINIMAL INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE CWA AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL NEED TO MENTION AT LEAST A SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED BUT THERE MAY BE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS ESPECIALLY BEFORE SUNSET. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH. THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY PROBABLY ALONG HIGHWAY 34 AS THE REMNANTS OF BILL TRACKS NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON. OUR NORTH WILL GRADUALLY SEE DRIER AIR WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 50S DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL REMAIN IN THE JUICY AIRMASS AS THE FRONT STALLS. AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY SO I WILL MAINTAIN THE 40-50 POPS. THE BULK OF THE MODELS KEEP THE HEAVIEST RAINS SOUTH OF THE DVN CWA. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL..NOW SHOWN TRACKING WELL TO THE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN MO INTO SOUTHERN IL THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...WILL KEEP MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A QUIET WEATHER REGIME FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. MORE ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS LATE SATURDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS A FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BECOMES STALLED OUT. THIS WILL PROVIDE NEARLY DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THURSDAY NIGHT...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER ALBERTA IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER SHOT OF DRY EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WELL INTO EASTERN IA THROUGH MIDDAY FRI. THE ONLY POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE REMNANT SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT WASHES OUT FROM NORTHERN MO INTO CENTRAL IL OVERNIGHT AND HAVE LOW POPS IN PLACE. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIMITED TO EARLY EVENING...ANTICIPATING THE VERY LOW MODEL MUCAPES AND STABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE OVERNIGHT. SOMEWHAT LIKE THIS MORNING...THE DRY AIR WITH DEWPOINTS LOWERING INTO THE 50S OVER IL...WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO COOL INTO THE MID 50S NE TO LOWER 60S SW. WITH AT LEAST HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER LIKELY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 FRIDAY WITH SURFACE WINDS BACKING TO THE SOUTH BY EVENING AS THE HIGH RETREATS EASTWARD. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SOUTHERLY WINDS EDGE DEWPOINTS BACK UPWARDS AND THE REMNANT WEAK CONVERGENT BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. SATURDAY...BILL DISSIPATES TO THE SE AS AN INCOMING FRONT AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH BECOME THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES. STRONG THETAE ADVECTION FEEDING INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AN MCS THAT IS LIKELY TO PUSH THROUGH WITH THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY POPS ARE MAINTAINED. HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS...WITH PW VALUES POSSIBLE NEAR 2 INCHES...WILL BRING THE FIRST THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN BACK INTO THE FORECAST. STRONG PREFRONTAL WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL SEND HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S WHILE DEWPOINTS LIKELY RETURN TO THE LOWER 70S. THIS WILL LEAD TO UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS WITH SEVERE STORMS AS OUTLINED IN THE SPC DAY 4 SEVERE OUTLOOK 15 PERCENT AREA CENTERED OVER EASTERN IA. SUNDAY THROUGH WED...THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW HAVE BETTER AGREEMENT DEPICTING THE WEST TO EAST FRONT...SUPPRESSED TO NORTHERN MO SUNDAY NIGHT...LIFTING BACK NORTH AND BECOMING STALLED OUT ROUGHLY ALONG HIGHWAY 30 BY TUE NIGHT. THE MODELS THEN DEPART WITH THE ECMWF LIFTING THE BOUNDARY NORTH INTO MN AND SOUTHERN WI WHILE THE GFS IS FURTHER SOUTH. EITHER WAY...WITH AN ACTIVE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND UPPER JET TRACK JUST TO THE NORTH...THE SETUP IS PRIME FOR AN ACTIVE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES THROUGHOUT. FOR NOW...HAVE HIGHER POPS IN THE NORTH CLOSER TO THE MOST LIKELY FRONTAL POSITION. WITH AN OPEN FEED OF GULF MOISTURE... SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE A DAILY THREAT. THIS WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF FLOODING ON AREA RIVERS THAT WILL LIKELY HAVE RETURNED TO THEIR BANKS BY THIS TIME. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 IFR CONDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON GRADUALLY BECOMING VFR CIGS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO EASTERN IA AFTER 05Z/18 BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE COVERAGE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FOR NOW HAVE INCLUDED A VCTS AT KCID/KDBQ THIS EVENING. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN NORTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. WIND SPEEDS SHOOULD BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HAASE SHORT TERM...HAASE LONG TERM...SHEETS AVIATION...HAASE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1207 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 ...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION... .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 AT 12Z WEDNESDAY A 500MB WESTERLY FLOW EXTENDED FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WERE OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR LOOP AND 500MB UPPER AIR ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL WAS LOCATED OVER NORTH TEXAS. A 700MB TO 500MB DEFORMATION ZONE LOCATED NORTHWEST OF TD BILL AND EXTENDED FROM SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA TO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. 700MB TEMPERATURES AT 12Z WEDNESDAY WERE +8C AT NORTH PLATTE, +10C AT DODGE CITY, 12C AT DENVER. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO EXTEND FROM EAST CENTRAL COLORADO INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 OUTFLOW FROM THE CONVECTION IN NORTHEAST COLORADO EARLY THIS EVENING HAD PUSHED AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS SCOTT CITY BUT SEEMS TO HAVE LOST ITS STEAM. SURFACE OBS AT NORTON AND PHILLIPSBURG SHOW AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THAT AREA. WOULD THINK THAT BY SUNRISE, THIS BOUNDARY WILL HAVE PUSHED SOUTH INTO THE HAYS AREA. THE SHORT TERM HRRR AND RAP MODELS SHOW THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHING AS FAR SOUTH AS A HAYS TO HUGOTON LINE BY LATE MORNING BEFORE STARTING TO WASH OUT AND RETREAT NORTHWARD. NOT SURE THAT WE WILL SEE ANY CONVECTION FIRING IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY GIVEN THE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES BUT WILL LEAVE ANY CHANCES FROM THAT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. IN RESPONSE TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SHORT WAVE, THE MODELS HINT AT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OFF OF THE NORTHEAST COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND MOVING POSSIBLY MOVING INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING. THE GOING FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS. ANY STORMS THAT MAKE IT INTO WESTERN KANSAS SHOULD DIE LATER THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. WILL KEEP SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS DRY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE MODELS KEEP RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. BILL CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES TODAY ACROSS THE BOARD AS WARMER THE COLUMN CONTINUES TO WARM AND DEEP MIXING IS EXPECTED TODAY. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 ON THURSDAY, THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL WILL BE LOCATED OVER NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA, WITH UPSLOPE, SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER WESTERN KANSAS. WEAK NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER WESTERN KANSAS, COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S, WEAK CAPPING AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY LEAD TO LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY OVER FAR WESTERN KANSAS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED WEAK UPPER LEVEL WINDS, THESE STORMS MAY NOT BE SEVERE, BUT SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW, TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. ON FRIDAY, LEE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP A LITTLE MORE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS, BUT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY WEAK AND GIVEN THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, ANYTHING MORE THAN JUST AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS NOT EXPECTED. HIGHS OUGHT TO REACH INTO THE MID 90S ALONG THE COLORADO STATE LINE, WITH UPPER 80S IN CENTRAL KANSAS. SATURDAY WILL BE A WARMER DAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PROGRESSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, ALONG WITH SURFACE TROUGHING OVER WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN`T BE RULED OUT ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH. HIGHS SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE MID 90S, WITH SOME UPPER 90S ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT OVER WESTERN KANSAS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WHERE A LOW TO MID LEVEL DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WILL EXIST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S AND POSSIBLY NEAR 100 OVER WEST CENTRAL KANSAS, WITH MAINLY MID 90S FARTHER SOUTHEAST. LOWS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN THE VARIOUS MODELS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHWEST KANSAS TO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS TODAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER CLOUD BASES BASED THE 12Z BUFR SOUNDINGS WILL BE BETWEEN 3000 AND 7000FT AGL. TONIGHT THE LIGHT WINDS WILL BACK MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP BASED ON A SHALLOW LAYER OF NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE FORECAST BY THE 12Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS. AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE PAST POOR PERFORMANCE OF THE NAM WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY FOG IN THE 18Z TAFS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 87 63 87 65 / 10 10 10 10 GCK 89 64 89 65 / 20 20 10 20 EHA 90 64 90 64 / 20 30 20 20 LBL 89 64 89 64 / 10 10 10 10 HYS 88 65 88 65 / 20 20 10 10 P28 86 67 86 68 / 10 10 10 10 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BURGERT SHORT TERM...GERARD LONG TERM...FINCH AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
141 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND NEAR A OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO REFLECT THE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND ALSO UPDATED WITH LATEST OBS/TRENDS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1000 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 FOG HAS BURNED OFF IN MOST SPOTS THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROGRESSING NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES THIS MORNING. THESE STORMS WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH AND ALSO UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THE NEAR TERM TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT WILL LIKELY BRUSH THROUGH OUR NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALSO FINE TUNED THE T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST...RESTORED...OBS AND TRENDS. THE FOG WAS LINGERED FOR AN EXTRA HOUR...AS WELL. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY...WASHED OUT BOUNDARY LYING OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH HIGH HUMIDITY AND MILD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IS LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTHWEST MOVING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE OHIO VALLEY...THOUGH DESTINED TO NEVER GET HERE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE SPAWNED OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY THANKS IN PART TO THAT WEAK SFC BOUNDARY. WHILE THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE IS MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING...A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL GOING STRONG OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION AND ACROSS THE BORDER INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA AND ILLINOIS. LOCALLY...TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY UNIFORM IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S ACROSS THE CWA WITH DEWPOINTS A DEGREE OR SO LOWER IN MOST SPOTS WHILE WINDS ARE LIGHT. PATCHY FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...IS NOTED AT JKL AND IN SOME OF THE WEB CAMS...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY OR SPS ATTM. BUILDING CLOUD COVER FROM THE NEARBY FRONT AND STORMS TO THE WEST SHOULD HELP LIMIT ITS IMPACT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE OHIO RIVER BASICALLY ITS NORTHERN EDGE. TO THE SOUTHWEST...THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM BILL ARE SHOWN MOVING FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS TO THE OZARKS BY 00Z FRIDAY. ALONG THE TOP OF THE RIDGE A TRAIN OF MINOR ENERGY WAVES WILL RIPPLE PAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THURSDAY HELPING TO SUPPRESS THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE...WITH SOME ASSISTANCE FROM BILL/S REMNANT CIRCULATION APPROACHING LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS FORECAST WILL BE DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE FEATURES... THOUGH...SO HAVE FAVORED RADAR TRENDS AND THE LATEST HRRR FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST ALONG WITH THE HIGH RESOLUTION NAM12 FOR THE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY PORTIONS. THE SAME INGREDIENTS THAT PRODUCED STORMS...A COUPLE OF WHICH WERE SEVERE...YESTERDAY WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY AND THURSDAY TO FUEL STORM DEVELOPMENT. THESE COMPONENTS ARE...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE AIR...PWS NEAR 2 INCHES...AND INSTABILITY WITH CAPES TO 3000 J/KG BY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...THE LAPSE RATES WILL BE A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. ACCORDINGLY...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR THE REST. ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT...THOUGH...WILL BE THE REMAINS OF THE ONGOING STORMS TO THE WEST. THE HRRR TRIES TO TAKE THE CORE OF THESE OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...BUT THAT PROGRESS IS IN DOUBT GIVEN RADAR TRENDS AND THE NAM12 SOLUTION. WHAT DOES HAPPEN WITH THESE STORMS WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT EFFECT ON OUR INSTABILITY LATER THIS MORNING DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUN CAN GET IN HERE BEFORE THE CLOUDS...OR REMAINING CONVECTIVE CELLS...FROM THE WEST MOVE INTO THE JKL CWA. AT WORST...THIS COULD DELAY THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER STORMS UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE THREAT WILL CERTAINLY REMAIN. FOR THIS...WILL CONTINUE TO HIT IT IN THE HWO AS WELL AS ADDING A HEADLINE TO THE WEB/PARTNER E-MAIL. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINS. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIURNALLY WANE TONIGHT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AGAIN ANTICIPATED IN THIS MUGGY ENVIRONMENT. ON THURSDAY...THE CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS FAVORABLE FOR STORM FORMATION AS THE FRONT LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENS A TAD. BOTH TODAY AND THURSDAY HIGHS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE IN THE LOW 90S...BUT CLOUDS AND CONVECTION WILL LIMIT THE WORST OF THE HEAT...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA TODAY WHERE 85 DEGREES MAY BE A STRETCH. ONCE AGAIN THE T/TD/WINDS GRIDS WERE STARTED OFF FROM THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SUPERBLEND. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE IMPACT THAT THE CONVECTION WILL HAVE ON THESE ELEMENTS CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL FOR THEIR SPECIFICS. DID RAISE TEMPS A SMIDGEN ON THURSDAY WITH SLIGHTLY LESS CONVECTION ANTICIPATED THAN TODAY. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSEST TO THE HIGHER MET NUMBERS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM AS THE MAV APPEARS TO BE OVERLY DRY GIVEN THE POTENTIAL OF THIS PATTERN AND PERHAPS THE COARSER RESOLUTION OF ITS PARENT MODEL WHEN COMPARED TO THAT OF THE MET/S. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 A VERY WET AND ACTIVE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD SEEMS TO BE ON TAP. THE PERIOD BEGINS ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN OPEN SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE PUTTING EAST KENTUCKY IN A TROPICAL TYPE AIRMASS. HEADING INTO FRIDAY...THE REMNANTS OF BILL SETS UP JUST TO THE WEST OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY POISED TO HEAD EAST UP THE OH VALLEY AND WITH IT...A SUBSTANTIAL SHOT OF MOISTURE. THIS IS CONFIRMED WITH THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS AND EURO AND ALSO WITH THE SUPER BLEND. THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND THE REMNANTS OF BILL...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE...COUPLED WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE OH VALLEY WILL BE A FOCUS FOR CONTINUED ROUNDS OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PWATS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 1.75 TO 2.00 INCH RANGE. BY MONDAY THE PATTERN TAKES ON A MORE DIURNAL DRIVEN MAX AND MIN TIME FOR CONVECTION. MONDAY AND TUESDAYS ACTIVITY WILL DRIVEN BY A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE JET. THESE WAVES WILL BRING A COUPLE OF WEAK COLD FRONTS THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER...AS WELL...WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING INTO THE AREA...THIS PATTERN DOES FAVOR A MCS TYPE PATTERN. AT THE SURFACE...THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS WILL KEEP THE AREA IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S MAKING FOR A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS EACH DAY. CERTAINLY THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD RAISES A CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND...POSSIBLY COMPLICATED BY THE MCS PATTERN TO START THE NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND NEAR A OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PRODUCED FROM EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND EAST. GIVEN THIS AND POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HAVE MENTIONED VCTS AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WANE TONIGHT AND FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT MOST SITES OVERNIGHT. RIGHT NOW HAVE KEPT SITES MVFR VIS...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT LOWER VIS ESPECIALLY IN SITES THAT ARE ABLE TO RECEIVE ANY PRECIP. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL WEST TO SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DJ SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER AVIATION...DJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
131 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1000 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 FOG HAS BURNED OFF IN MOST SPOTS THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROGRESSING NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES THIS MORNING. THESE STORMS WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH AND ALSO UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THE NEAR TERM TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT WILL LIKELY BRUSH THROUGH OUR NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALSO FINE TUNED THE T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST...RESTORED...OBS AND TRENDS. THE FOG WAS LINGERED FOR AN EXTRA HOUR...AS WELL. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY...WASHED OUT BOUNDARY LYING OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH HIGH HUMIDITY AND MILD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IS LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTHWEST MOVING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE OHIO VALLEY...THOUGH DESTINED TO NEVER GET HERE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE SPAWNED OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY THANKS IN PART TO THAT WEAK SFC BOUNDARY. WHILE THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE IS MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING...A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL GOING STRONG OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION AND ACROSS THE BORDER INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA AND ILLINOIS. LOCALLY...TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY UNIFORM IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S ACROSS THE CWA WITH DEWPOINTS A DEGREE OR SO LOWER IN MOST SPOTS WHILE WINDS ARE LIGHT. PATCHY FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...IS NOTED AT JKL AND IN SOME OF THE WEB CAMS...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY OR SPS ATTM. BUILDING CLOUD COVER FROM THE NEARBY FRONT AND STORMS TO THE WEST SHOULD HELP LIMIT ITS IMPACT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE OHIO RIVER BASICALLY ITS NORTHERN EDGE. TO THE SOUTHWEST...THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM BILL ARE SHOWN MOVING FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS TO THE OZARKS BY 00Z FRIDAY. ALONG THE TOP OF THE RIDGE A TRAIN OF MINOR ENERGY WAVES WILL RIPPLE PAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THURSDAY HELPING TO SUPPRESS THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE...WITH SOME ASSISTANCE FROM BILL/S REMNANT CIRCULATION APPROACHING LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS FORECAST WILL BE DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE FEATURES... THOUGH...SO HAVE FAVORED RADAR TRENDS AND THE LATEST HRRR FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST ALONG WITH THE HIGH RESOLUTION NAM12 FOR THE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY PORTIONS. THE SAME INGREDIENTS THAT PRODUCED STORMS...A COUPLE OF WHICH WERE SEVERE...YESTERDAY WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY AND THURSDAY TO FUEL STORM DEVELOPMENT. THESE COMPONENTS ARE...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE AIR...PWS NEAR 2 INCHES...AND INSTABILITY WITH CAPES TO 3000 J/KG BY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...THE LAPSE RATES WILL BE A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. ACCORDINGLY...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR THE REST. ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT...THOUGH...WILL BE THE REMAINS OF THE ONGOING STORMS TO THE WEST. THE HRRR TRIES TO TAKE THE CORE OF THESE OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...BUT THAT PROGRESS IS IN DOUBT GIVEN RADAR TRENDS AND THE NAM12 SOLUTION. WHAT DOES HAPPEN WITH THESE STORMS WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT EFFECT ON OUR INSTABILITY LATER THIS MORNING DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUN CAN GET IN HERE BEFORE THE CLOUDS...OR REMAINING CONVECTIVE CELLS...FROM THE WEST MOVE INTO THE JKL CWA. AT WORST...THIS COULD DELAY THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER STORMS UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE THREAT WILL CERTAINLY REMAIN. FOR THIS...WILL CONTINUE TO HIT IT IN THE HWO AS WELL AS ADDING A HEADLINE TO THE WEB/PARTNER E-MAIL. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINS. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIURNALLY WANE TONIGHT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AGAIN ANTICIPATED IN THIS MUGGY ENVIRONMENT. ON THURSDAY...THE CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS FAVORABLE FOR STORM FORMATION AS THE FRONT LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENS A TAD. BOTH TODAY AND THURSDAY HIGHS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE IN THE LOW 90S...BUT CLOUDS AND CONVECTION WILL LIMIT THE WORST OF THE HEAT...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA TODAY WHERE 85 DEGREES MAY BE A STRETCH. ONCE AGAIN THE T/TD/WINDS GRIDS WERE STARTED OFF FROM THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SUPERBLEND. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE IMPACT THAT THE CONVECTION WILL HAVE ON THESE ELEMENTS CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL FOR THEIR SPECIFICS. DID RAISE TEMPS A SMIDGEN ON THURSDAY WITH SLIGHTLY LESS CONVECTION ANTICIPATED THAN TODAY. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSEST TO THE HIGHER MET NUMBERS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM AS THE MAV APPEARS TO BE OVERLY DRY GIVEN THE POTENTIAL OF THIS PATTERN AND PERHAPS THE COARSER RESOLUTION OF ITS PARENT MODEL WHEN COMPARED TO THAT OF THE MET/S. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 A VERY WET AND ACTIVE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD SEEMS TO BE ON TAP. THE PERIOD BEGINS ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN OPEN SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE PUTTING EAST KENTUCKY IN A TROPICAL TYPE AIRMASS. HEADING INTO FRIDAY...THE REMNANTS OF BILL SETS UP JUST TO THE WEST OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY POISED TO HEAD EAST UP THE OH VALLEY AND WITH IT...A SUBSTANTIAL SHOT OF MOISTURE. THIS IS CONFIRMED WITH THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS AND EURO AND ALSO WITH THE SUPER BLEND. THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND THE REMNANTS OF BILL...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE...COUPLED WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE OH VALLEY WILL BE A FOCUS FOR CONTINUED ROUNDS OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PWATS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 1.75 TO 2.00 INCH RANGE. BY MONDAY THE PATTERN TAKES ON A MORE DIURNAL DRIVEN MAX AND MIN TIME FOR CONVECTION. MONDAY AND TUESDAYS ACTIVITY WILL DRIVEN BY A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE JET. THESE WAVES WILL BRING A COUPLE OF WEAK COLD FRONTS THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER...AS WELL...WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING INTO THE AREA...THIS PATTERN DOES FAVOR A MCS TYPE PATTERN. AT THE SURFACE...THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS WILL KEEP THE AREA IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S MAKING FOR A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS EACH DAY. CERTAINLY THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD RAISES A CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND...POSSIBLY COMPLICATED BY THE MCS PATTERN TO START THE NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND NEAR A OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PRODUCED FROM EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND EAST. GIVEN THIS AND POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HAVE MENTIONED VCTS AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WANE TONIGHT AND FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT MOST SITES OVERNIGHT. RIGHT NOW HAVE KEPT SITES MVFR VIS...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT LOWER VIS ESPECIALLY IN SITES THAT ARE ABLE TO RECEIVE ANY PRECIP. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL WEST TO SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DJ SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER AVIATION...DJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
433 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 433 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN CONUS/SRN CANADA. UPSTREAM...ONE SHORTWAVE IS EVIDENT OVER NRN MN WHILE A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROF IS SWINGING SE THRU SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. WAVE OVER NRN MN HAS BEEN AIDING A PERSISTENT AREA OF SHRA THAT HAS MOVED FROM NW WI EARLY THIS MORNING INTO WRN UPPER MI THIS AFTN. THE CLOUD COVER OVER WRN UPPER MI HAS KEPT INSTABILITY FROM DEVELOPING...SO THERE HAS BEEN NO THUNDER YET. VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER TO THE S AND SW... AND LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES MLCAPES HAVE INCREASED TO A FEW HUNDRED J/KG INTO WCNTRL WI WITH THE 100J/KG ISOPLETH NOW NEAR THE WI/MI BORDER. THAT INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH A WEAK SFC LOW PRES OVER SRN MN AND TROF EXTENDING NE TOWARD KIWD HAS BECOME THE FOCUS FOR DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HRS. WELL OFF TO THE NW...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN SHORTWAVE TROF EXTENDS FROM HUDSON BAY TO SE SASKATCHEWAN. SFC OBS/CANADIAN RADARS SHOW SOME -SHRA/SPRINKLES WITHIN THE BAND OF CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING FRONT. MORE RECENTLY...CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO FIRE ALONG THE FRONT. FIRST WAVE OVER NRN MN WILL SHIFT E ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES THIS EVENING. MODELS HINT THAT ANOTHER SUBTLE WAVE WILL FOLLOW LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE SWINGING SE THRU NRN ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT THRU EARLY THU AFTN. HAVE LARGELY UTILIZED RADAR TRENDS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HRS TO PUSH ONGOING SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH FIRST SHORTWAVE ENE INTO NCNTRL UPPER MI BEFORE DIMINISHING. NAM AND THE HIGH RES NAM WINDOW HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS PCPN...SO NAM OUTPUT WAS INCORPORATED AS WELL. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE CONVECTION DEVELOPING TO THE SW NEAR SRN MN WEAK SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROF THAT EXTENDS TOWARD KIWD. SINCE THIS CONVECTION IS LARGELY DRIVEN BY DAYTIME INSTABILITY...THIS PCPN SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH AS IT LIFTS TOWARD THE FCST AREA TONIGHT. PROBABLY WON`T COMPLETELY DISSIPATE GIVEN SOME CONTINUED FORCING THRU THE NIGHT. SO...FCST WILL SHOW SCT/NMRS SHRA INTO WRN UPPER MI DIMINISHING TO SCT WITH TIME EASTWARD. SINCE CLOUD COVER WILL DOMINATE HEADING TO SUNSET...INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED HERE...BUT IT STILL WARRANTS A MENTION OF THUNDER WITH BEST CHC FROM KIWD TOWARD KIMT. POTENTIAL FOR SCT SHOWERS/PERHAPS A TSTM WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ERN FCST AREA THU MORNING ALONG JUST AHEAD OF THE FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING THRU THE AREA. AS IS THE CASE TODAY IN CANADA...THERE MAY ALSO BE ISOLD -SHRA FOR A SHORT TIME FOLLOWING FROPA AS WELL. OTHERWISE...SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THU AFTN WILL BRING DRIER AIR/CLEARING SKIES. IT WILL BE CHILLY ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR THU AFTN WITH GRADIENT WIND OFF THE LAKE. LAKESIDE LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF LONG FETCHES ACROSS THE LAKE WILL LIKELY SEE AFTN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S/LWR 50S. AT THE HIGH END...MAX TEMPS OVER FAR SCNTRL UPPER MI SHOULD REACH THE MID 70S. IT WILL ALSO BE A BREEZY DAY BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E...DUE TO DECENT PRES RISES/CAA AND 20-30KT WINDS AT 925MB. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WEAK SYSTEMS TO PASS ACROSS THE AREA EVERY FEW DAYS. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM WILL GENERALLY HAVE AT LEAST SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY...NONE OF THE DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY SO MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. AFTER THE WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES BY ON THURSDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA...ACCOMPAINED BY VERY DRY AIR WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AT 0.25 INCH THU NIGHT. THIS DRY AIR COMBINED WITH DECOUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO DROP WELL INTO THE 30S ACROSS MANY INTERIOR LOCATIONS WITH SOME PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT FROST ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED THU NIGHT BUT WILL LEAVE THIS DECISION TO FUTURE FORECASTS. HOWEVER...PEOPLE IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR MAY NEED TO PREPARE TO COVER PLANTS WHICH ARE SUCCEPTIABLE TO THE COLD THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT DAY ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. SOME WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY WHICH COMBINED WITH THE SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH LOCATIONS CLOSE TO THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE COOLER. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LATEST NWP SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE SLIGHTLY SLOWER...WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...WILL ELIMINATE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR THE FAR WEST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THE BEST UPPER FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL GENERALY REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. AS SUCH...ANY PRECIPITAITON WILL LIKELY BE TIED TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THERE SEEMS LIKE AT LEAST THE POSSIBLITY FOR SOME SUNSHINE ALLOWING FOR SOME POCKETS OF INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. IN FACT...THE NAM IS QUITE AGRESSIVE IN SHOWING 1000+ J/KG MLCAPE VALUES SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF THE UPPER PENINSULA. IN FACT...EVEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST SOME MODEST INSTABILITY OF 500-1000 J/KG. WITH 50 KT MID- LEVEL FLOW AND SOME DRYING ALOFT...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STRONGER STORMS IF/WHERE POCKETS OF INSTABILITY DEVELOP. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ONLY AROUND 6.1 C/KM. BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON SATURDAY...WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE WEATHER TO BECOME QUIET AGAIN FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...WITH THE UPPER JET OVERHEAD AND ANOTHER SUBTLE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE W-NW FLOW...CANNOT RULE OUT A PASSING SHOWER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE ZONAL W-NW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT A BAROCLINC ZONE WILL DEVELOP JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTN INTO MONDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES ESPECAILLY CLOSER TO THE WI/MI BORDER AS IT CREEPS NORTHWARD. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THIS BOUNDARY WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THOSE DAYS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 MOISTURE FROM AREA OF -SHRA THAT HAVE BEEN MOVING ACROSS WRN UPPER MI SHOULD RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT KIWD THIS AFTN. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME BRIEF IFR COULD OCCUR. WHILE KCMX SHOULD BE VFR...SOME PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTN. AT KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTN. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES TONIGHT. MORE SHRA MAY SPREAD ENE INTO THE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN COVERAGE/LOCATION. IN ADDITION...IF CLOUDS BREAK TONIGHT...FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE AT KCMX/KIWD WITH IFR OR EVEN LIFR POSSIBLE. COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THRU THE AREA THU MORNING...BRINGING A SHIFT TO NW TO N WINDS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT KCMX AND ESPECIALLY AT KSAW. MAY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS PERHAPS IFR AROUND/JUST AFTER FROPA. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 433 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EACH ONE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS. AFTER LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT/THU MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY GUST TO 20-25KT FOR A TIME OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR THU...ESPECIALLY AT HIGH OBS PLATFORMS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING AS HIGH PRES PASSES OVER THE AREA. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES...SE TO S WINDS WILL RAMP UP FRI AFTN THRU SAT MORNING. WINDS MAY GUST TO 15-25KT FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING OVER CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS WILL PROBABLY SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SAT AFTN. SINCE THE HIGH PRES FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL BE WEAK...WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...UNDER 20KT FOR LATE SAT THRU SUN. THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL LINGER INTO MON UNDER A WEAK PRES GRADIENT. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ROLFSON LONG TERM...MRD AVIATION...ROLFSON MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
339 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 AT 20Z BROAD ZONAL FLOW WAS ESTABLISHED OVER MOST OF THE NORTHERN CONUS WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED DIFFUSE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. MAIN JET STREAK WAS POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF THE US/CANADIAN BORDER ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER STATES. A LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW WAS NOTED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING...WITH A STALLED FRONT EVIDENT ON SFC OBS AND SATELLITE STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS...THEN NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. LATEST OBS INDICATE THE FRONT IS BEGINNING TO CREEP BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL SERVE A FOCAL POINT FOR POTENTIAL CONVECTION OVER THE CWA TONIGHT. NORTH OF THE FRONT A RELATIVELY HUMID AIRMASS WAS IN PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. THE HRRR HAS ROUTINELY SHOWN SPORADIC CONVECTIVE INITIATION WHERE IT CAN RESOLVE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DRAPED OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS RATHER WEAK AT THIS TIME SO AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE SPARSE AT BEST IF ANY CONVECTION CAN FIRE. BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN WYOMING/MONTANA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN DROP SOUTHEAST AS AN ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF STORMS ALONG THE CONVERGENT NOSE OF A STRENGTHENING LLJ. EXPECTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT TO RESIDE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTH. THE POTENTIAL WILL BE THERE FOR A FEW OF THE STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS TONIGHT CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. LATEST RAP13 AND NAM12 SHOW 800MB COMPUTED LI/S OF -8C TO -10C...ALONG WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 40-50 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. STORMS WILL PUSH SOUTH AND EAST AS THE LLJ VEERS EAST OVERNIGHT. SOME MODELS LINGER CONVECTION IN THE AREA THROUGH 15Z THURSDAY...BUT THIS MAY BE A LITTLE SLOW. LOWERED POPS TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH A LULL EXPECTED IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE CWA AS THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING IN A HUMID AIRMASS WILL PROMOTE STRONG DESTABILIZATION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME AREAL COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE ISOLATED WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES AND THE LACK OF A WELL DEFINED FOCAL POINT FOR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. MODELS SHOW THE BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS NORTH AND WEST OF CWA UNDERNEATH FASTER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND CLOSER TO A SFC LOW IN NORTHERN WYOMING. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE PLENTIFUL WITH PWATS ABOVE 1.25 INCHES WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING POCKETS ABOVE 1.50 INCHES. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS LIMITED. BY FRIDAY THE WARM FRONT WILL NORTH INTO S DAKOTA WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDING OVER THE CWA. RIDGE RIDING SHORT WAVE WILL FAVOR STORMS IN THE DAKOTAS WHICH MAY CLIP NORTHERN NEB...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH AT THIS TIME. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH TEMPS WILL BE CLIMBING. MORE SUMMER LIKE TEMPS EXPECTED WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ANTICIPATED. ALSO WILL BE A MUGGY DAY AS DEW POINTS LIKELY TO BE IN THE 60S. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. CAP IS FAIRLY STRONG AND BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE NEB/S DAKOTA BORDER. BY SAT NIGHT THE FRONT STALLS TO THE SOUTH OVER KS WHILE A SHORT WAVE MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE CAP AS THE GFS IS STRONGER AND LIMITS PRECIP TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHILE THE ECMWF IS COOLER AND STORMS SPREAD FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. AFTER A COOL DOWN FOR THE WEEKEND. THE STALLED FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE QUICKLY REBUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AND TEMPS CLIMB BACK TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER TO MID 90S. RIDGE RIDING WAVES LOOK TO KEEP MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE CWA...HOWEVER CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRAY STORM OR TWO DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVING ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE IS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TONIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED PROB30 GROUP FOR TS ACTIVITY AT BOTH KLBF AND KVTN TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL. AT THIS POINT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA WHERE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEGUN TO CONSISTENTLY SHOW AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING SOUTHEAST LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MARTIN SHORT TERM...MARTIN LONG TERM...MASEK AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1222 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 SAT IMAGERY SHOWS DECREASING TREND IN CLOUD COVER IS FASTER THAN EXPECTED. SO THE SKY FCST WAS UPDATED THRU MIDDAY TO REFLECT THIS. SHOULD BE M/SUNNY THIS AM. EQUIPMENT: YOU MAY BE AWARE THAT OBS WERE MISSING FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THIS WAS DUE TO FAA MAINTENANCE. OBS RETURNED AS OF 10Z. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 ALOFT: THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN OVER THE NRN USA THRU DAWN TOMORROW...WITH A VERY LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN WNW FLOW OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. SUBTROPICAL HIGHS WILL CONT OVER THE SW AND SE USA...WITH THE REMNANTS OF BILL LIFTING N INTO OK. SURFACE: THE POLAR FRONT WAS QUASI-STATIONARY ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE WESTERLIES AND EXTENDED FROM WY-NEB E INTO THE OH VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY THRU TONIGHT...AND WILL BE MODULATED/MODIFIED BY TSTM ACTIVITY. NOW: THE REMNANTS OF A DECAYING MCS ARE MOVING THRU AT THIS TIME. RAIN-COOLED OUTFLOW HAS OVERTAKEN THE ENTIRE FCST AREA. WE DID SEE MULTIPLE GUSTS UP TO 43 MPH ACROSS FURNAS/HARLAN/FRANKLIN COUNTIES 12AM-2AM WHEN IT WAS MORE POTENT. TODAY: DECREASING CLOUDS THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW REGARDING TSTM REDEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO A LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING. THE 00Z 4KM WRF-NMM HAS AN EXCELLENT HANDLE ON WHAT IS GOING ON NOW...IT`S JUST TOO SLOW BY 4 HRS. IT SUGGESTS THE BEST DEVELOPMENT WILL BE S AND E OF THE FCST AREA...PROBABLY ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GENERATED BY THIS MORNING`S MCS. DEVELOPMENTS IN THE RAIN- COOLED AIR OVER THE FCST AREA LOOK VERY ISOLATED/MINIMAL...AND IF THERE IS NOT ENOUGH TSTM ACTIVITY TO FORM A COMMON COLD POOL...WHAT LITTLE ACTIVITY FIRES SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. THE 06Z HRRR HAS A SIMILAR IDEA AT 21Z. ENOUGH CLEARING TODAY SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY... WITH MLCAPE 2000-2500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR 30-40 KTS...HIGHEST OVER S-CNTRL NEB. LOW-LVL VEERING RESULTS IN 0-3 KM SRH OF 150 J/KG. THIS WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL CONVECTIVE MODE. SPC HAS MOST OF THE FCST AREA OUTLOOKED IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR. TONIGHT: IT ALL HINGES ON WHAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON. IF ONLY A FEW ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE FCST AREA...THEY WILL DIMINISH AND END MID-LATE EVE. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH DEVELOPMENTS TO THE W. THE SIGNAL IS NOT GREAT...BUT CELL MERGERS COULD RESULT IN AN MCS THAT COULD PROPAGATE INTO NEB. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW GIVEN THE LACK OF MODEL QPF CLUSTERING AND LOW SREF QPF PROBABILITIES. GIVEN LOW FCST CONFIDENCE...POPS ARE NO HIGHER THAN 20% TODAY- TONIGHT. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SUBTLE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING WILL BE NOTED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE TO START THE LONG- TERM FORECAST PERIOD AT 12Z THURSDAY...AND ALTHOUGH THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST TO FINISH THE WEEK...THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS OF ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SUBTLE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATION WILL CLEAR THE AREA THURSDAY AND AS A RESULT...~20% POPS CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS PERTURBATION IS EXPECTED TO HAVE CLEARED OUR AREA BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THERE ALSO REMAIN INDICATIONS OF HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION PERHAPS SUSTAINING ITSELF LONG ENOUGH TO IMPACT FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY EVENING AND AS A RESULT...~20% POPS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR FAR WEST 00-06Z FRIDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...THE FIRST UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA...THUS ELIMINATING ANY APPRECIABLE OMEGA. THIS...AND THE PRESENCE OF A HEALTHY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC CAPPING INVERSION EACH AFTERNOON...RESULTS IN A POP-FREE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MORE INTO THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY TIME PERIOD...ANOTHER ROUND OF MULTIPLE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATIONS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FIRST RIDGE COULD BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION AND AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD WITH 20-30% POPS ACROSS VARIOUS PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST NEXT TUESDAY AS THE SECOND UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. AS WAS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...RESPECTABLE BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE ...ALONG WITH VARYING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PERTURBATIONS...WILL PROMOTE VARYING LEVELS OF POTENTIAL ENERGY FROM DAY TO DAY DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD. FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING...ENERGY LEVELS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 1000-2000J/KG ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED. GIVEN THIS...WILL CONTINUE MENTIONING THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE HWO FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AIR MASS EARLY NEXT WEEK SUGGESTS STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER COULD RESULT SHOULD CONVECTION DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL...BUT AT THIS TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TO INTRODUCE ANY MENTION OF SEVERE WEATHER THAT FAR INTO THE FUTURE. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS WILL PROMOTE WARM WEATHER DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S AND 90S AND LOWS IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S. AT THIS TIME THE WARMEST DAY APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS LIKELY CLIMBING INTO THE 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWA AND PERHAPS NEARING THE CENTURY MARK ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THESE TEMPERATURE READINGS...IF REALIZED...WOULD HELP PROMOTE HEAT INDEX READINGS OF 100-102 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. NOT YET READY TO INTRODUCE HEAT WORDING IN THE HWO FOR THIS WEEKEND...BUT THIS MAY BE SOMETHING TO CONSIDER IN THE COMING DAYS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 A FEW CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE CUMULUS AND ANY SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN IN THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THEY COULD MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE TERMINALS...BUT DO NOT EXPECT IT. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HALBLAUB SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB LONG TERM...BRYANT AVIATION...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
152 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTH LIFTS BACK NORTH WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM BILL REMNANTS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATE... TRACKING A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS HEADING INTO THE HTS AREA...BUT CURRENTLY IN A LULL RIGHT NOW IN TERMS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CWA. NORTHWESTERN ZONES RECEIVING STRATIFORM RAIN FROM AN OLD CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...AND THIS MAY AFFECT EARLY DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. MEANWHILE...SOUTHERN ZONES ARE GETTING EXPOSURE TO SUN THIS MORNING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... 00Z NAM NOT HANDLING THE WAVE COMING OUT OF THE MIDWEST VERY WELL...SO RELIED MORE ON THE HRRR FOR POPS TODAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL SLOWLY RETURN NORTHWARD TODAY. AM A BIT CONCERNED WITH POTENTIAL FOR WATER PROBLEMS...BUT THE MORNING ARRIVAL OF THE FIRST WAVE WILL LIMIT HEATING. ALSO...MUCH OF THE NORTHERN COUNTIES HAD A BREAK FROM HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS SITUATION HOWEVER. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH STILL OVER THE SOUTHEAST US PLENTY OF SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE HIGH ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA. THIS WILL MEAN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS. EVEN WITH DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT TIMING EACH FEATURE IS VERY DIFFICULT SO WENT WITH MORE OF A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH. WITH SUCH A TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE AND WHAT WILL ESSENTIALLY BE A WEEK OF HIGH PWS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EACH DAY BRINGS ON MORE OF A CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO. AT SOME POINT IN TIME A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS ON THURSDAY FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. THE LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES WITH THIS. IN ADDITION THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT POSSIBLE WIND GUSTS FOR THE MOUNTAINS. WITH SUCH SATURATED SOILS THIS COULD CAUSE SOME TREES TO FALL. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE REMNANTS OF WHAT WAS TROPICAL STORM BILL SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE START OF THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES CLOUDY AND RAIN CHANGES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF THE NEXT WEEK. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS PERIOD AS CONTINUED RAINFALL IS LIKELY IN THE PATH OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS IS LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR TIMING. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. && .AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS NOW MOVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS. HAVE SOME CLEARING OVER THE EASTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN OHIO. THIS SHOULD GENERATE ROUND TWO OF THE CONVECTION TODAY WITH THE HEATING TAKING PLACE IN THE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. CONVECTION WILL BE HIT OR MISS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BECAUSE OF THIS...AMENDMENTS AND TEMPOS ARE LIKELY TO BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST TODAY FOR TSRA. GOING EASY ON THE FOG TONIGHT. THINK THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER...AND SHOULD SEE SOME WIND OVER THE NORTHERN SITES. BEST CHANCES FOR FOG WILL BE HTS AND CRW WHERE THE SKY HAS A BETTER CHANCE TO CLEAR. AMOUNTS OF RAIN WILL ADD TO THE FOG EQUATION TONIGHT. MORE CONVECTION EXPECTED FROM MORNING ONWARD THURSDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONVECTION TIMING AND LOCATIONS WILL VARY. FOG SET UP FOR TONIGHT IS NOT IN PLACE JUST YET. MAY NEED TO ADD A LOW IFR STRATUS DECK LATER TONIGHT. .AFTER 12Z THURSDAY... BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. TIMING AND INTENSITY OF MORNING FOG WILL DEPENDS OF LOCATIONS THAT GET RAIN AND CAN CLEAR OUT AT NIGHT. && WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FB/RPY/JMV NEAR TERM...RPY/26 SHORT TERM...FB LONG TERM...JSH/JMV AVIATION...26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
353 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HOT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SPREADING OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES WILL RESULT IN WAVY WEATHER FOCUSING BOUNDARIES TO LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO NEXT WEEK. EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR IN THIS PATTERN WITH AN ENHANCED RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF BILL. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... RADAR LOOPS SHOWS MORE PCPN ALOFT THAN IS ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND WHICH HAS BEEN A LITTLE MISLEADING IF LOOKING AT A COMPOSITE RADAR. AREA OF HIGHEST DBZ COVERS ONLY THE SWRN 1/3 OF THE CWA WHERE HIGHEST POPS ARE PAINTED. HRRR AND OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE WAS TOO SLOW WITH THE EWD MVMT OF PCPN INTO SWRN PA. THIS IS NOT SURPRISING GIVEN FAST/LOW AMPLITUDE SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONSISTING OF WEAK SHORTWAVES TRACKING EWD ALONG SRN EDGE OF WESTERLIES...ALIGNED WITH DEEP MSTR/PWS POOLED ALONG WAVY EAST- WEST ORIENTED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ESSENTIALLY ALONG THE OH RIVER. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER INDIANA IS PROGGED TO FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATH THROUGH SRN OH AND BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF WAA SHOWERS/ELEVATED CONVECTION TO SOUTH CENTRAL/SERN PA LATER TONIGHT. MODEL DATA GENERALLY AGREES ON THIS BUT TIMING MAY BE AN ISSUE. THE HEAVIEST QPF SHOULD STAY TO THE SOUTH AS QPF TENDS TO BE FCST TO FAR NORTH BY THE MODELS IN THESE TYPES OF FLOW REGIMES. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... THE FCST FOR DAY2/THURS STILL LOOKS SOMEWHAT MESSY WITH LEFTOVER CLOUDS/PCPN EARLY IN THE DAY AND NEARBY WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY PIVOTING ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM SUGGESTS MUCH OF THE CWA WILL BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE BY THE AFTERNOON AS MORNING PCPN ENDS AND CLOUD BREAKS DEVELOP. PORTIONS OF ERN PA COULD REMAIN CLOUDY/STABLE WITH NAM LI PROGS STRONGLY POSITIVE FROM NJ INTO THE POCONOS. THAT SHOULD KEEP TSTM RISK CONFINED TO WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A MID-LVL TROUGH CROSSING SERN CANADA WILL PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS SRN LWR MI INTO WRN NY BY THUR NGT. AN AXIS OF HI PWS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH SFC MID-60S DEWPOINTS IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. ML CAPE SHOULD REMAIN MODEST GIVEN WEAK MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND MULTI-LAYER CLOUDS. BELT OF STRONGER MID-LVL WESTERLIES SHOULD EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR AND PROMOTE RISK FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF BETTER HEATING/CLOUD BREAKS WHERE LLVL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN. SPC HAS CUT BACK A LITTLE ON THE SLGT RISK CATEGORY ACROSS THE NW ALLEGHENIES. DRIER AIR SHOULD START TO WORK INTO NWRN PA LATE THUR NGT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES SWD TOWARD THE MASON DIXON LINE. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE QUESTION FOR FRIDAY BEGINS WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT. IF IT HAS SWEPT THROUGH THE STATE THE DAY WILL BEGIN DRY WITH SUNSHINE. SOME MODELS MOVE IT THROUGH SLOWER WITH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. BY AFTERNOON AND EVENING A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES OVER THE MID ATLC REGION. NORTHERN PA WILL BE COOL AND DRY INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND SEASONABLE ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE HIGH CENTER SLIPS EAST OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY OVERNIGHT AS REMANTS FROM TD BILL MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE EXACT TIMING AND TRACK OF THE STORM AND HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME BUT THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS. IF RAINS FROM TD BILL ARE STEADY SPEAD OVER 12 TO 24 HOURS THEN THE RAIN WILL HELP MITIGATE A DROUGHT WATCH OVER PORTIONS OF PA. BUT IF HEAVY RAINS COME IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME SUCH AS A FEW HOURS...THEN FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING COULD BE A CONCERN PARTICULARLY FOR SMALLER STREAMS. MODELS SHOW THE REMNANTS OF BILL INTERACTING WITH A FRONT ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY AND MOVING OFF THE COAST MONDAY. HOWEVER THERE APPEARS TO BE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS ON WHETHER THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION OUT OR HANGS UP AGAIN ACROSS THE STATE WITH ANOTHER WITH ANOTHER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AFTN VISIBLE STLT LOOPS SHOWS MULTI-LAYER CLOUDS CONTINUING TO OVERSPREAD THE AIRSPACE FROM THE OH VLY. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO REMAIN INVOF JST/AOO AND PERHAPS UNV THRU LATE AFTN AND COULD EXTEND FURTHER EAST TWD MDT. PCPN IS VERY LGT FALLING OUT OF MID LVL CLOUD DECK WITH BASES AROUND 10KFT AGL. CONDS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THIS EVE WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ALL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING MVFR/IFR/LIFR CIGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AIRSPACE WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN HIGH LLVL MSTR AND LGT/SOUTH/EAST LLVL FLOW. LOW CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE INTO THURS AFTN WITH THE MAIN TSTM RISK CENTERED OVER THE FAR WRN AIRSPACE IN ZOB SECTOR. OUTLOOK... FRI...BCMG VFR. SAT-MON...VFR/MVFR WITH PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA. LOCALLY +RA PSBL SAT NGT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL LONG TERM...WATSON AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
258 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HOT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SPREADING OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES WILL RESULT IN WAVY WEATHER FOCUSING BOUNDARIES TO LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO NEXT WEEK. EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR IN THIS PATTERN WITH AN ENHANCED RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF BILL. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... RADAR LOOPS SHOWS MORE PCPN ALOFT THAN IS ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND WHICH HAS BEEN A LITTLE MISLEADING IF LOOKING AT A COMPOSITE RADAR. AREA OF HIGHEST DBZ COVERS ONLY THE SWRN 1/3 OF THE CWA WHERE HIGHEST POPS ARE PAINTED. HRRR AND OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE WAS TOO SLOW WITH THE EWD MVMT OF PCPN INTO SWRN PA. THIS IS NOT SURPRISING GIVEN FAST/LOW AMPLITUDE SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONSISTING OF WEAK SHORTWAVES TRACKING EWD ALONG SRN EDGE OF WESTERLIES...ALIGNED WITH DEEP MSTR/PWS POOLED ALONG WAVY EAST- WEST ORIENTED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ESSENTIALLY ALONG THE OH RIVER. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER INDIANA IS PROGGED TO FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATH THROUGH SRN OH AND BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF WAA SHOWERS/ELEVATED CONVECTION TO SOUTH CENTRAL/SERN PA LATER TONIGHT. MODEL DATA GENERALLY AGREES ON THIS BUT TIMING MAY BE AN ISSUE. THE HEAVIEST QPF SHOULD STAY TO THE SOUTH AS QPF TENDS TO BE FCST TO FAR NORTH BY THE MODELS IN THESE TYPES OF FLOW REGIMES. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... THE FCST FOR DAY2/THURS STILL LOOKS SOMEWHAT MESSY WITH LEFTOVER CLOUDS/PCPN EARLY IN THE DAY AND NEARBY WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY PIVOTING ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM SUGGESTS MUCH OF THE CWA WILL BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE BY THE AFTERNOON AS MORNING PCPN ENDS AND CLOUD BREAKS DEVELOP. PORTIONS OF ERN PA COULD REMAIN CLOUDY/STABLE WITH NAM LI PROGS STRONGLY POSITIVE FROM NJ INTO THE POCONOS. THAT SHOULD KEEP TSTM RISK CONFINED TO WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A MID-LVL TROUGH CROSSING SERN CANADA WILL PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS SRN LWR MI INTO WRN NY BY THUR NGT. AN AXIS OF HI PWS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH SFC MID-60S DEWPOINTS IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. ML CAPE SHOULD REMAIN MODEST GIVEN WEAK MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND MULTI-LAYER CLOUDS. BELT OF STRONGER MID-LVL WESTERLIES SHOULD EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR AND PROMOTE RISK FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF BETTER HEATING/CLOUD BREAKS WHERE LLVL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN. SPC HAS CUT BACK A LITTLE ON THE SLGT RISK CATEGORY ACROSS THE NW ALLEGHENIES. DRIER AIR SHOULD START TO WORK INTO NWRN PA LATE THUR NGT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES SWD TOWARD THE MASON DIXON LINE. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FORECAST LOOKS RATHER GOOD. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO CUT POPS BACK FOR FRIDAY AFT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...GIVEN LACK OF SFC CONVERGENCE...TIME OF DAY...AND THAT FLOW IS MAINLY FROM THE WEST...AND GIVEN A SIMILAR SITUATION YESTERDAY WITH THE FLOW BEING SIMILAR...HARD TO SEE MUCH GOING ON AFT FRIDAY MORNING. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW. A MID LVL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN CANADA WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THRU THE AREA THUR NGT WHICH SHOULD TEMPORARILY SUPPRESS THE HIGH PW AXIS SOUTH OF THE PA/MD LINE ON FRIDAY. THE PATTERN GENERALLY EVOLVES IN A SIMILAR FASHION OVER THE WEEKEND AS DEEP MSTR /ASSOCD WITH THE REMNANTS OF BILL/ RETURNS AND BRINGS A LOCALLY HEAVY RAFL THREAT. ANOTHER CANADIAN SHORTWAVE PUSHES A COLD FRONT THRU THE AREA AND DRIES THINGS OUT AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF WET/DRY PERIODS IS AVG AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE ESP LATER IN THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AFTN VISIBLE STLT LOOPS SHOWS MULTI-LAYER CLOUDS CONTINUING TO OVERSPREAD THE AIRSPACE FROM THE OH VLY. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO REMAIN INVOF JST/AOO AND PERHAPS UNV THRU LATE AFTN AND COULD EXTEND FURTHER EAST TWD MDT. PCPN IS VERY LGT FALLING OUT OF MID LVL CLOUD DECK WITH BASES AROUND 10KFT AGL. CONDS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THIS EVE WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ALL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING MVFR/IFR/LIFR CIGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AIRSPACE WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN HIGH LLVL MSTR AND LGT/SOUTH/EAST LLVL FLOW. LOW CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE INTO THURS AFTN WITH THE MAIN TSTM RISK CENTERED OVER THE FAR WRN AIRSPACE IN ZOB SECTOR. OUTLOOK... FRI...BCMG VFR. SAT-MON...VFR/MVFR WITH PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA. LOCALLY +RA PSBL SAT NGT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL LONG TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
107 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HOT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SPREADING OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES WILL RESULT IN WAVY WEATHER FOCUSING BOUNDARIES TO LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO NEXT WEEK. EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR IN THIS PATTERN WITH AN ENHANCED RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF BILL. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... CONTINUED TO ADJUST POPS UPWARD ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL MTNS FOR THIS AFTN BASED ON THE LATEST UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS. MAY STILL NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH. HRRR AND OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE ARE TOO SLOW WITH THE EWD MVMT OF LGT/MOD PCPN OVER SW PA. THIS IS NOT SURPRISING GIVEN SYNOPTIC RING-OF-FIRE TYPE PATTERN CONSISTING OF WEAK SHORTWAVES TRACKING EWD ALONG SRN EDGE OF WESTERLIES ALIGNED WITH DEEP MSTR POOLED ALONG WAVY WEST-EAST ORIENTED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ESSENTIALLY ALONG THE OH RIVER. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER IL/IN IS PROGGED TO FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATH THROUGH SRN OH AND BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF MAINLY STRATIFORM SHOWERS ALONG WITH CHC FOR SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL PA LATER TONIGHT. MODEL DATA GENERALLY AGREES ON THIS BUT TIMING MAY BE AN ISSUE. THE HEAVIEST QPF SHOULD STAY TO THE SOUTH FOLLOWING AXIS OF BETTER INSTABILITY INTO SRN MD/VA. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... THE FCST FOR DAY2/THURS STILL LOOKS SOMEWHAT MESSY WITH LEFTOVER CLOUDS/PCPN EARLY IN THE DAY NEARBY WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY PIVOTING ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM SUGGESTS MUCH OF THE CWA WILL BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE BY THE AFTERNOON AS MORNING PCPN ENDS AND CLOUD BREAKS DEVELOP. PORTIONS OF ERN PA COULD REMAIN CLOUDY/STABLE WITH NAM LI PROGS STRONGLY POSITIVE FROM NJ INTO THE POCONOS. THAT SHOULD KEEP TSTM RISK CONFINED TO WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THAT SAID...A MID-LVL TROUGH CROSSING SERN CANADA WILL PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS SRN LWR MI INTO WRN NY BY THUR NGT. AN AXIS OF HI PWS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH SFC MID-60S DEWPOINTS IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. ML CAPE SHOULD REMAIN MODEST GIVEN WEAK MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND MULTI-LAYER CLOUDS. BELT OF STRONGER MID-LVL WESTERLIES SHOULD EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR AND PROMOTE RISK FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF BETTER HEATING/CLOUD BREAKS WHERE LLVL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN. SPC HAS MAINTAINED A SLGT RISK CATEGORY ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND NW ALLEGHENIES. DRIER AIR SHOULD START TO WORK INTO NWRN PA LATE THUR NGT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES SWD TOWARD THE MASON DIXON LINE. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FORECAST LOOKS RATHER GOOD. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO CUT POPS BACK FOR FRIDAY AFT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...GIVEN LACK OF SFC CONVERGENCE...TIME OF DAY...AND THAT FLOW IS MAINLY FROM THE WEST...AND GIVEN A SIMILAR SITUATION YESTERDAY WITH THE FLOW BEING SIMILAR...HARD TO SEE MUCH GOING ON AFT FRIDAY MORNING. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW. A MID LVL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN CANADA WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THRU THE AREA THUR NGT WHICH SHOULD TEMPORARILY SUPPRESS THE HIGH PW AXIS SOUTH OF THE PA/MD LINE ON FRIDAY. THE PATTERN GENERALLY EVOLVES IN A SIMILAR FASHION OVER THE WEEKEND AS DEEP MSTR /ASSOCD WITH THE REMNANTS OF BILL/ RETURNS AND BRINGS A LOCALLY HEAVY RAFL THREAT. ANOTHER CANADIAN SHORTWAVE PUSHES A COLD FRONT THRU THE AREA AND DRIES THINGS OUT AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF WET/DRY PERIODS IS AVG AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE ESP LATER IN THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... EARLY AFTN VISIBLE STLT LOOPS SHOWS MULTI-LAYER CLOUDS CONTINUING TO OVERSPREAD THE AIRSPACE FROM THE OH VLY. RADAR TRENDS STRONGLY FAVOR SHOWER ACTIVITY REACHING JST/AOO BY 18Z AND COULD EXTEND FURTHER EAST BY LATER IN THE AFTN. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE 12Z TAFS WITH THE 15Z INTERMEDIATE UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR QUICKER ADVANCEMENT OF LGT PCPN. CONDS SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY VFR WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. ALL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING MVFR/IFR/LIFR CIGS ACROSS THE AIRSPACE FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN HIGH LLVL MSTR AND LGT/EASTERLY LLVL FLOW. LOW CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE INTO THURS AFTN WITH MAIN TSTM RISK OVER THE WRN AIRSPACE/ZOB SECTOR. OUTLOOK... FRI...VFR. FRI NGT-SUN...VFR/MVFR WITH PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL LONG TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
223 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2015 .DISCUSSION... Isolated showers have developed over the area this afternoon on the backside of Tropical Cyclone Bill which is now about to cross the Red River into OK. The majority of this activity will stay in the eastern Permian Basin before diminishing after sunset. As Bill lifts northeast, an upper ridge will try to build east across the Southern Plains. Before it does so, our region will remain in weak northerly mid level flow. If thunderstorms form over the TX Panhandle or NE NM later this afternoon or Thursday they will move south and may make it to the area during the overnight hours. Both the HRRR and WRF-NMM show a complex of showers and storms moving across eastern NM and W TX overnight. Rain chances diminish Friday into the weekend as the upper ridge takes hold on the area. Will need to monitor the strength of the ridge as recent models have shown a weakness/inverted trough developing over South Texas and slowly drifting it west. This solution could bring a few showers and storms back to the area from the east late in the weekend into next week. Much warmer conditions are expected tomorrow as mid level temperatures increase quite a bit. Expect highs to be about 5 to 10 degrees warmer than today. Temperatures will moderate somewhat into the weekend as easterly flow sets up along with abundant low level moisture. If we see the inverted trough move across the area early next week, high temperatures may struggle to get out of the 80s! && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ANDREWS TX 67 93 68 91 / 20 10 10 10 BIG SPRING TX 68 93 71 92 / 10 10 10 10 CARLSBAD NM 68 97 69 95 / 20 20 20 10 DRYDEN TX 71 94 71 92 / 10 10 10 10 FORT STOCKTON TX 68 92 68 92 / 10 10 10 10 GUADALUPE PASS TX 67 92 66 89 / 20 20 20 10 HOBBS NM 64 91 64 90 / 20 20 10 10 MARFA TX 59 90 58 88 / 10 20 20 10 MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 67 94 69 92 / 20 10 10 10 ODESSA TX 68 93 70 92 / 20 10 10 10 WINK TX 69 97 70 95 / 20 10 10 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 70/29 Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: http://facebook.com/NWSMidland http://twitter.com/NWSMidland Check us out on the internet at: http://weather.gov/midland
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
112 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2015 .DISCUSSION... Please see the 17/18Z aviation forecast discussion below. && .AVIATION... Ceilings have (finally) lifted to VFR across area terminals. We expect VFR conditions to persist across area terminals through 18/18Z. Light northeasterly winds will gradually veer overnight to the southeast and remain under 10 knots. Although area soundings suggest convective initiation (CI) is imminent, we`re also seeing drier mid-level air being drawn cyclonically around the western semicircle of TD "BILL", now approaching the Dallas/Ft. Worth Metroplex. This dry air should serve to erode moist updrafts and limit convection to isolated at best through the afternoon hours. Another round of convection overnight is being hinted by convection- allowing models, specifically the HRRR (see SPC`s HRRR web browser at http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/hrrr for a summary of convective- related HRRR products. The dProg/dt feature is very useful!). Scattered thunderstorms, most likely sourced off the Raton Mesa, are forecast by the HRRR, the Texas Tech WRF (located at the following URL: http://www.atmo.ttu.edu/bancell/real_time_WRF/ttuwrfhome.php), and to some extent the NSSL WRF (http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/wrf/newsite/) to translate south across eastern New Mexico overnight, where favorable conditions exist for sustained elevated convection. These storms may impact KCNM, KHOB, and KINK a few hours before sunrise Thursday, with attendant MVFR ceilings/visibilities, gusty winds, and brief heavy rain. Right now, confidence in timing is not sufficiently high to include in the TAFs for these terminals; however, we`ll keep watch on this and adjust the forecasts as needed. && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 70 Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: http://facebook.com/NWSMidland http://twitter.com/NWSMidland Check us out on the internet at: http://weather.gov/midland
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1256 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. A WEAK FRONT OVER THE AREA WILL OSCILLATE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND AND BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY INTERACT WITH MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL TO BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1005 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... WEAK FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA THIS MORNING AS DEPICTED BY A RATHER SHARP GRADIENT OF NW TO SE ORIENTED LOW LEVEL THETA-E OVER THE NORTH/NE ATTM. ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY INCLUDING THE BLUE RIDGE...SEEING QUITE A BIT OF MID CLOUD CANOPY WITH BREAKS OVER THE FAR WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT IMPULSE ALOFT MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST. THIS FEATURE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS MODELS STRING IT EAST JUST NORTH OF THE REGION LATER ON. HOWEVER DEGREE OF ORGANIZATION APPEARS KEY TO WHETHER OR NOT MUCH OF THE AREA SEES JUST SCATTERED COVERAGE AIDED BY OROGRAPHICS/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ONCE THE MID DECK ERODES OR DOES A COMPLEX ORGANIZE AND SLIDE SE ALONG THE FRONT/THETA-E GRADIENT ESPCLY LATER ON. MUCH OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR TEND TO KEEP A MORE CLUSTERED/BANDED SCENARIO WITH FOCUS EVENTUALLY TRENDING BACK TO ANOTHER UPSTREAM WAVE IN THE OHIO VALLEY LATER. THINK THIS MAY BE SOMEWHAT OVERDONE GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR LATER STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG OLD OUTFLOW FROM THE TAIL OF THE CONVECTION PASSING THROUGH NE KY ATTM...AND SPILL SE INTO THE WEST WHERE HEATING AND FORECAST/MODIFIED CAPES OF AROUND 2K J/KG APPEAR LIKELY. THIS STILL PUTS THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE NW/WEST WHERE BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELYS A BIT SOONER BEFORE UNFOLDING CONVECTION TO THE SE ESPCLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY THIS EVENING IF SOME SORT OF MCS DOES EVOLVE PER NEW NAM. INCREASING WIND FIELDS ALOFT PER 30+ KT UNIDIRECTIONAL WESTERLY JET WOULD SUPPORT MORE OF A SEVERE THREAT THAN IN RECENT DAYS WITH STRONG WINDS THE MAIN THREAT IF CAN GET ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND DRYING ALOFT TO SUPPORT HIGHER DCAPES LATER ON. HIGH TEMPS APPEAR A BIT COOLER TODAY GIVEN CLOUDS AT THE ONSET AND THE WEAK FRONT OVER PARTS OF THE REGION. HOWEVER WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH SUN TO PUNCH READINGS BACK INTO THE 90S EAST...AND 80S WEST SO ONLY TRIMMED HIGHS BACK A CAT OR SO NORTH/NE AND ACTUALLY RAISED A FEW DEGREES SOUTH OF THE FRONT OVER THE SE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 500 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN TODAY IS FOR POTENTIAL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...MCS...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA...ESP THE VIRGINIAS...DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL VIRGINIA...WEST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS FRONT IS POSITIONED ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH WHICH IS ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY WILL SERVE AS A PATH FOR WHICH ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION WILL FOLLOW. OUR FORECAST AREA IS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STRONGER WESTERLIES ALOFT...AND RIGHT ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH. THE SURFACE FRONT IS VERY CLOSE TO OUR NORTHERN CWA BORDER AND IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTH TO ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE HWY 460 CORRIDOR BY THIS EVENING. THIS IS PROBLEMATIC IN THAT IT PUTS US ON THE RECEIVING END OF ANY ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION THAT MAY MOVE DOWNSTREAM OR DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS SUGGEST THE OUTFLOW FROM ONGOING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE FRONT TODAY...STORMS REDEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. CONCERN IS THAT TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS WILL COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING WHEN CAPE WILL BE AT A MAXIMA. AS SUCH...THINK STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ARE LIKELY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DAMAGING WINDS. A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...MAIN THREAT WINDOW 4PM-10PM. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE DOWN A FEW DEGREES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER. IN SPITE OF THE ONE OR TWO DEGREE REPRIEVE...IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM AND HUMID WITH NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 430 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... WILL START THURSDAY MORNING OFF POTENTIALLY WITH THE REMNANTS OF A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX EXITING OUR AREA TO THE EAST...WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH WILL BRING WITH IT WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDFLOW WHICH WILL LIMIT AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ISOLATED/MAYBE WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY...WITH BETTER CHANCES OVER THE MOUNTAINS. INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE MODEST...SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY STRONG STORM INTENSITY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN FOR FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SIMILAR TO FRIDAY... SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO POP UP DURING LATE MORNING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN PULSY FASHION. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES EAST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER WHILE THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE TOWARD OUR AREA. WITH BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...MAY SEE STORMS SOLIDIFY INTO A LINE AS THEY PASS THROUGH OUR AREA...AND DESPITE THE LACK OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STORMS BECOME SEVERE. THE MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY WILL PUSH EAST OF OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...LEAVING ONLY LINGERING SHOWER INTO DAWN SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT BACKDOORS ITS WAY IN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WINDFLOW WILL NOT TAKE LONG TO SHIFT SOUTHERLY AGAIN ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL GET CAUGHT UP IN THE WESTERLY FLOW AND SWING SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY... ALTHOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DIFFERENCE IN WHERE THE REMNANTS WILL TRACK. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CARRIED QUICKLY EAST THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS THE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH 2.0+ INCH PWATS ENCOUNTERS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK AND CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...RANGING FROM THE MID 80S WEST TO THE LOW/MID 90S EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... CONVECTION LOOKS TO BECOME MORE DIURNAL WITH A TRAILING TROUGH AXIS CROSSING THE REGION SUNDAY AND AHEAD OF A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM COOL FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON. WEAKNESS OF BOTH FEATURES SUGGEST MAINLY LOW END CHANCE POPS WITH THE FRONT POSSIBLY DROPPING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW THE FRONT TUESDAY PERHAPS BRINGING A BIT DRIER AIR BUT AT LEAST STILL THE NEED FOR SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS WITH POTENTIAL FOR AN IMPULSE TO DROP IN FROM THE NW TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OTRW CONTINUED PERSISTENCE WITH HIGHS 80S WEST AND LOW/MID 90S EAST...EXCEPT A FEW DEGREES COOLER PER CLOUDS/SHRA SATURDAY...AND AGAIN BEHIND THE WEAK BOUNDARY ON TUESDAY...BUT LIKELY HOTTER SUNDAY WITH SINKING MOTION/DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE BILL REMNANT. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 1235 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... EARLY MID DECK CONTINUING TO FADE TO MORE OF A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU FIELD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN OLD UPSTREAM OUTFLOW BAND APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. INCREASING INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD LEAD TO MORE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON WITH ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE FOR PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR ESPCLY ACROSS THE VA/WEST VA LOCATIONS WHERE WILL CARRY EITHER A PREVAILING SHRA OR TEMPO GROUP FOR SHOWERS AND STRONGER STORMS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. STORMS MAY TEND TO ORGANIZE AND SPILL EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH MUCH OF THIS AFFECTING THE KBCB-KROA-KLYH CORRIDOR. SINCE ALREADY RUNNING WITH PREVAILING MVFR IN TSRA WILL KEEP MENTION ESPCLY SINCE CHANCES OF SEEING A BAND OR CLUSTER OF STORMS IMPACT THESE SITES APPEARS HIGHER. EXPECT LESS OF A CHANCE AT KDAN BUT STILL ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A VCTS GIVEN LIKELY SE TRAJECTORY OF TSRA LATER ON. OTRW WILL KEEP VFR TO INIT MOST SPOTS BEFORE TRENDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WOULD BE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS BUT ALSO IFR VSBYS IN THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY LINGER WITH ANOTHER POSSIBLY ARRIVING ACROSS THE NORTH THIS EVENING...MAINLY AFFECTING KROA/KLYH PER LATEST MODELS. OTHERWISE THINKING WILL SEE CONVECTION FADE WITH LOSS OF HEATING WITH SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND AND PERHAPS A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WHERE HEAVIER EARLIER RAINFALL OCCURRED. WAVE PASSES ON THURSDAY WITH MUCH OF THE REGION IN BETWEEN LIFT SOURCES AND UNDER A DECENT WESTERLY FLOW THAT SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION TO THE MAINLY THE FAR WEST AND PERHAPS BLUE RIDGE LATE. THUS RUNNING WITH OVERALL VFR IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU FIELDS AFTER ANY EARLY FOG/STRATUS FADES WITH WEST WINDS AT 10-20 KTS. NEXT IMPULSE ARRIVES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE BILL REMNANTS WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR IN AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATION WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS OF WEATHER THRU THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH REMNANTS OF BILL THAT SHOULD GET CAUGHT INTO THE UPPER FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS COULD RESULT IN MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS. WEAK TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY WITH CONVECTION BECOMING MORE ISOLATED DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTRW OVERALL VFR INTO MONDAY WITH ADDED ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE WITH YET ANOTHER WEAK FRONT LINGERING OVER THE REGION. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR EXCEPT THE TYPICAL FOG FORMATION AT LWB/BCB AND AT TIMES LYH THROUGH THE WEEK EARLY MORNING TIME FRAME. && .CLIMATE... AS OF 200 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... RECORD HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY JUNE 17TH... STATION RECORD HIGHS/YEAR ROANOKE 96/1944 LYNCHBURG 96/1944 DANVILLE 99/1981 BLACKSBURG 88/1994 BLUEFIELD 86/2007 LEWISBURG 88/2014 && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JH/PM NEAR TERM...JH/PM SHORT TERM...NF LONG TERM...JH/NF AVIATION...JH/PM CLIMATE...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
324 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 CONVECTION HAS BEEN DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL IOWA ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY AND AHEAD OF WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THIS ACTIVITY HAS FORMED IN AN AXIS OF ABOUT 1000 J/KG OF ML CAPE WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40 TO 45 KNOTS. THE 17.18Z RAP SUGGESTS THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND THAT THE CAPE AXIS WILL ESSENTIALLY REMAIN IN PLACE. THE RAP ALSO INDICATES THE BEST SHEAR IS OCCURRING RIGHT NOW AND THIS SHOULD THEN DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON TO 35 KNOTS OR LESS IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 AND 25 KNOTS OR LESS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER. MOST OF THE HI-RES MESO MODELS SHOW A TREND OF CONTINUED EXPANSION OF THE STORMS THROUGH ABOUT 21Z OR 22Z AND THEN SHOW A DIMINISHING TREND AS THE SHEAR DROPS OFF. THE RAP CONTINUES TO SHOW A VERY TALL AND SKINNY CAPE PROFILE IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR KRST SO BELIEVE LOCAL DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT ONE OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME SUB SEVERE HAIL OR WIND GUSTS. THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH HELPING THIS ACTIVITY WAS COMING ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA AND WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. THE RAP ALSO CONTINUES TO SHOW ONLY WEAK FORCING FROM THIS WAVE WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE CONVECTION MORE ON THE SCATTERED SIDE. PLAN TO START THE EARLY EVENING WITH AROUND A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OVER THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY AND THEN QUICKLY TREND THIS DOWN TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE EVENING AS THE CAPE DIMINISHES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OUT OF CANADA THURSDAY AND DRIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE A SHORT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN ZONAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO COME ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THE 17.12Z NAM AND GFS INDICATE THIS WAVE SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME WEAK PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER. THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD INDICATED SO HAVE LIMITED THE RAIN CHANCES TO THE 20 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH THE WEAK PV ADVECTION SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING WEAK TO POSSIBLY SOME MODERATE FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 1000-700 MB LAYER AND THEN WEAK ABOVE THAT UP TO 500 MB. THE ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE ON THE 305K SURFACE AHEAD OF THE WAVE LOOKS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 3 UBAR/S. FOR NOW WILL STAY WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH 50 TO 60 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THIS SOLUTION GIVEN THE LACK PV ADVECTION AND THE NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY POSITIVE TILT TO THE WAVE. AFTER THAT...THE ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS COMING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOME RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES CENTERED ON MONDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 MVFR CEILINGS NEAR KRST HAVE BEEN BREAKING UP OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT STILL A POSSIBILITY THEY WILL SHOW UP FOR A BRIEF TIME EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BEYOND THIS CONCERN...ATTENTION FOCUSED ON CONVECTIVE CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT THE AIRFIELDS. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS TSRA DEVELOPING FROM KMKT TO KFBL. SHORT TERM MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL EXPAND INTO SEVERAL CLUSTERS AND TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP AT KRST TO ATTEMPT TO PIN DOWN THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME. CONVECTION MAY WEAKEN BEFORE IT GETS TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WILL MONITOR TRENDS AND ADJUST FORECAST AS NECESSARY. EXPECT CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS MODELS MOVE RH OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. NAM THE ONLY MODEL TO HOLD ONTO BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE UNDER AN INVERSION AND SUGGESTS FOG/MIST. HAVE DISCOUNTED THIS FOR NOW BUT ALSO BEARS WATCHING. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM...04 AVIATION...MW
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW ARE PUMPING IN DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S INTO WESTERN WI AND SOUTHEAST MN WHERE ML CAPES ARE SURPASSING 1200 J/KG. ANTICIPATE THAT STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FIRE AHEAD OF THE LOW AND TRANSLATE NE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WI LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS WEEKEND. FORECAST CONCERNS THEREFORE INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND IMPACTS IN THE SHORT-TERM. TONIGHT...THE LOW PRESSURE OVER MINNESOTA WILL TRAVEL EAST OVER CENTRAL WI INTO NORTHEAST WI BY 12Z THU. THE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW WILL KEEP MOST OF ITS IMPACTS WEST OF THE REGION UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING. THE FOCUS FOR THE EVENING WILL RESIDE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NE FROM THE LOW INTO THE WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY IMPACT AREAS NORTH OF A WAUSAU TO IRON MOUNTAIN LINE THROUGH THE EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...CONCERNED THAT SOME STORMS WILL MAKE A RUN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN BEFORE DIURNAL INSTABILITY IS LOST. IF THIS OCCURS...STORMS MAY STILL CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL GIVEN THE DECENT WIND FIELDS ALOFT. WILL KEEP A MENTION IN THE HWO. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM PROJECT AMPLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL LINGER AHEAD OF THE LOW TO SUSTAIN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. BUT WEAK FORCING SHOULD LEAD TO A DIURNAL COMPONENT THAT WILL KEEP STORM INTENSITY IN CHECK. A MORE HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTH. THURSDAY...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OR STORMS SHOULD EXIT WITH THE LOW EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE BEHIND THE LOW THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN CLOUDS WILL BUILD AHEAD OF A SECONDARY FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE DEVELOPING SPOTTY SHOWERS ALONG THIS FRONT...BUT CANNOT FIND HARDLY ANY CONVERGENCE ALONG IT. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY EXCEPT FOR FAR N-C WISCONSIN. HIGHS RISING TO AROUND 70 NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTH. .LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN US THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTING UP SHOP SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING A FEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA...ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE TIMING THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES. DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME FROST TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WI AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S. THE DRY WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END EITHER VERY LATE FRIDAY OR MORE LIKELY ON SATURDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACH THE AREA. ONGOING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY MAKE A RUN AT THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING...BUT MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THIS ACTIVITY...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A ANOTHER ROUND DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP. IF WE CAN CLEAR OUT FOR A PERIOD...SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES INCREASE WITH COLD FRONT/SHORTWAVE APPROACHING...DECENT SHEAR (0-6KM BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 35-50 KTS)...PROVIDING FOR A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. SPC FOCUSES THE DAY 4 OUTLOOK MAINLY FROM CENTRAL WI SOUTHWESTWARD WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY IS MOST LIKELY TO RESIDE...BUT IF THE SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN AND THE BETTER INSTABILITY (DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60 AND CAPE APPROACHING 2000 J/KG) CAN DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH/EAST THE THREAT AREA COULD BE EXPANDED MORE INTO NE WI. WILL SLOW DOWN THE ONSET OF POPS FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT...KEEPING ONLY CHANCE POPS OVER FAR NORTHERN WI...AND KEEP LIKELY POPS ON SATURDAY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. THE REMNANTS OF BILL WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER PWATS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0 INCHES ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL BRING A HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING THREAT. ANY SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE AREA DURING SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL OUT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE AREA...ACROSS IOWA...ILLINOIS AND INDIANA... THAT WE SHOULD SNEAK OUT A DRY DAY ON SUNDAY. LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND MAYBE SOME STORMS EXIST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS MODELS SHOW WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING IN THE ZONAL/WEST UPPER FLOW. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA THOUGH...CLOSER TO THE HUNG UP BOUNDARY. MODELS DO SHOW THE BOUNDARY STARTING TO APPROACH THE AREA LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. IF THIS OCCURS...MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN...WILL BE POSSIBLE. && .AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE ISSUED AT 1148 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER FAR NORTH-CENTRAL WI INTO THE EVENING...WHICH SHOULD MOSTLY PASS BY RHINELANDER TO THE NORTH. THEN WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. CEILINGS WILL DROP INTO MVFR WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE JUST AHEAD AND ALSO BEHIND THE LOW LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE RATHER QUICKLY THU MORNING. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......BERSCH AVIATION.......MPC