Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/17/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
948 AM MST MON JUN 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...HOTTER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH VALUES BETWEEN 105 AND
111 FROM TUCSON INTO THE LOWER DESERTS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS INTO MONDAY...WITH AN ADDITIONAL PUSH OF
MOISTURE FROM NEW MEXICO TUESDAY BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE LATEST HRRR SOLUTION WAS SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE AZ/NM
STATE LINE TODAY. OTHERWISE...THE HEAT WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER
STORY THIS WEEK. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKED ON TRACK...SO NO UPDATES
NEEDED THIS MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR
MORE DETAILS.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THROUGH 16/18Z.
CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WITH FEW-SCT CUMULUS NEAR 12K FT DEVELOPING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AFT 15/18Z EXCEPT SCT-BKN OVER THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS WITH A FEW SHRA/-TSRA 15/21Z THRU 16/04Z. SKIES CLEARING
AFT 16/05Z EXCEPT NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS 12-
14K FT. NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS INCLUDING GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS
IN SOME LOCATIONS DUE TO SURFACE HEATING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...SOME LINGERING MOISTURE OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND
JUST EAST OF THE STATE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVEN A BIT MORE SO TUESDAY.
THEN A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN VERY HOT...DRY
AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR RECORD LEVELS WITH AFTERNOON MINIMUM RH LEVELS BETWEEN 8 AND
13 PERCENT EACH DAY. OCCASIONAL...UNSTABLE HAINES 6 CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING WED-SAT ACROSS ZONES 152 AND 153
THEN POTENTIALLY SPREADING INTO ZONES 150 AND 151 SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...EVEN LINGERING THROUGH THE NIGHT PERIODS THOSE TWO DAYS.
WHILE FUELS ARE GENERALLY IN BETTER SHAPE THAN IN RECENT
YEARS...THESE WEATHER CONDITIONS WOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR STRONG PLUME
DEVELOPMENT IF A LARGE FIRE WERE TO DEVELOP. WINDS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND DIURNAL WITH THE USUAL OCCASIONAL
AFTERNOON GUSTS...TYPICAL FOR JUNE. CERNIGLIA
&&
.CLIMATE...MID-JUNE NEAR RECORD HEAT IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS
WEEK. HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR JUNE 16-19.
DATE JUNE 16 JUNE 17 JUNE 18 JUNE 19
TUCSON INTL AIRPORT 109/1988 109/2008 113/1989 112/1989
BISBEE-DOUGLAS AIRPORT 104/2008 105/2008 108/1989 108/1989
AJO 112/1916 113/1917 114/1936 114/1968
FORT THOMAS 109/1978 111/1959 111/1960 115/1960
ORGAN PIPE CACTUS 110/1993 111/2001 114/1989 115/1960
PICACHO PEAK 111/2000 111/2008 112/1989 111/2002
SAFFORD AG STATION 102/2000 99/2014 101/2003 101/2008
SIERRA VISTA FD 102/1989 103/1989 107/1989 106/1989
TOMBSTONE 105/1985 105/1980 107/1989 108/1989
WILLCOX 105/1948 105/1985 106/1989 108/1989
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...MODELS INDICATE THAT AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
PUSH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...AND THE RIDGE AXIS NOSES IN FROM THE
WEST...MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL SNEAK IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST AND EAST TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. THE BEST THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
WITH LOW END CHANCE CATEGORY POPS...THEN FOR TUESDAY THE THREAT
SPREADS A BIT FARTHER WEST WITH SOLID CHANCE CATEGORY POPS FOR THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE CATEGORY POPS FOR THE
MOUNTAINS OF GRAHAM AND COCHISE COUNTIES.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE
VERY HOT TEMPERATURES ON TAP FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO MAKE EASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. LOCAL
STUDY CORRELATING 850-700MB THICKNESS VALUES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
SUGGEST HIGH TEMPS WILL BE HOT FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT
THE HOTTEST DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
READINGS APPROACHING THE 110 DEGREE MARK FOR CENTRAL DESERTS AND
MEETING OR EVEN EXCEEDING THIS THRESHOLD FOR THE WESTERN DESERTS
(AJO/ORGAN PIPE). STILL ROOM FOR IMPROVEMENT IN THE TEMP FORECAST
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER IN TIME...SO STAY
TUNED.
THESE HIGH TEMPERATURES...IN PARTICULAR FOR TUCSON...WILL GENERALLY
BE 3 TO 5 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR TODAY AND TUESDAY...THEN AROUND 6 TO
8 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE WARMEST
DAYS WILL LIKELY OCCUR FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY. LOW TEMPS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 7 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
936 AM MDT MON JUN 15 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 917 AM MDT MON JUN 15 2015
OVERALL NO MAJOR UPDATES PLANNED FOR THE ONGOING FORECAST. STRATUS
HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COOL FRONT.
LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS GENERATE CAPES AROUND 1400 J/KG WITH T/TD OF
74/53. HRRR SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING INITIALLY DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE AFTER 18Z WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OFF THE FOOTHILLS FROM LARIMER COUNTY SOUTHWARD INTO
JEFFERSON COUNTY AFTER 21Z. BEST CHC OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR...THIS ALL IS
REFLECTED FAIRLY WELL IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. BEST DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
FOR THE DEVELOPING STORMS THIS AFTN WILL LIKELY OCCUR NORTH ALONG
THE CHEYENNE RIDGE AND SOUTH OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE...SO IF A
LANDSPOUT DOES FORM THESE MAY BE THE BEST AREAS. PW VALUES CLOSE
TO ONE INCH AGAIN WITH STORM MOTIONS FM THE WEST/NORTHWEST AROUND
10 MPH...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN ADDITION TO HAIL UP QUARTER
SIZE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT MON JUN 15 2015
THE WEAK COLD FRONT FROM LAST EVENING CAME THROUGH RATHER WIMPY AS
SURFACE WINDS HAVE BECOME VARIABLE UNDER 10KT OVERNIGHT. PER VAD
WINDS...THERE IS SOME SHALLOW UPSLOPE FLOW FROM THE NORTHEAST JUST
OFF THE DECK AND IS HELPING TO DEVELOP SOME HIGH STRATUS NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS IN THE 4 TO 5 THOUSAND FOOT LEVEL AGL. THERE WAS A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT HAVE DISSIPATED TRYING
TO COME OFF THE HILLS. OTHER AREA OF STRATUS ALSO DEVELOPING OVER
THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS WITH SOME PROGRESSION TOWARDS THE WEST.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP FOLLOWING LAST EVENINGS SURGES WITH
DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS ALL OF THE PLAINS.
INTEGRATED PW VALUES HAVE ALSO INCREASED TO NOW JUST OVER .80".
WILL NEED TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER THIS AM GIVEN
LATEST TRENDS FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY.
INCREASED MOISTURE VALUES WILL LEAD TO HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS PW VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND AN INCH
OVER THE FRONT RANGE. INITIAL LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS WILL DISSOLVE
BY MID AFTERNOON AND RESULTANT CAPE VALUES ANYWHERE FROM
1000-2000J/KG OVER FRONT RANGE AND PLAINS. SHEAR PROFILE IS
MARGINAL BUT WITH HIGH CAPES THERE IS A SEVERE THREAT FOR HAIL UP
TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH STORMS.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHTLY OUT OF THE WEST WHILE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A FEW POSSIBLE RIPPLES IN THE FLOW
ACROSS UTAH AND NEVADA. WITH ONLY WEAK QG ASCENT WON`T EXPECT
STORMS TO LAST MUCH PAST MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT MON JUN 15 2015
INCREASINGLY DRY UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WILL DOMINATE TUESDAY OVER
NE COLORADO. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL ALLOW MORE TERRAIN DRIVEN
CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT CAN`T RULE OUT SOME DEVELOPMENT
ALONG A LINE NORTH OF THE PALMER DIVIDE SW OF DENVER WITH THE HELP
OF A POSSIBLE DENVER CYCLONE SET UP. NAM IS HINTING MORE AT IT
WITH THE 00Z. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL BUT WE SHOULD WARM UP INTO
THE UPPER 80S. EVEN WITH THE LACK OF DECENT SHEAR THE CYCLONE
COULD HELP TO SPIN OFF A FEW STORMS THAT COULD RESULT IN BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN...WINDS AND HAIL.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY UNIFORM WESTERLY FLOW MOVES IN WITH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY. BOTH EC AND GFS SHOW POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAIN AND HIGH WINDS INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL BUT WITH DECENT SHEAR CONDITIONS COULD
PRODUCE STRONG STORMS BY WEDNESDAY EVE.
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE WEEKEND WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN USHERING IN MORE SUMMER LIKE
CONDITIONS. MOISTURE DECREASES GREATLY OVER THE REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL START TO BREAKDOWN BY FRIDAY
EVENING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON
DROPPING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 917 AM MDT MON JUN 15 2015
STRATUS STILL AROUND THIS MORNING WITH ILS/MVFR CIGS RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH 17Z. AS THE AIRMASS WARMS THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT HIGHER
CHANCES OF STORMS GIVEN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY. LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS WILL DISSOLVE AROUND 21Z
RESULTING IN A WINDOW OF STORMS BETWEEN 21-02Z OVER TERMINALS...
THE CAP MAY DISSOLVE SOONER...BY 18Z...SOUTH OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE. COULD SEE ILS APPROACHES RETURN WITH PASSING STORMS THIS
AFTN AND EARLY EVNG.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT MON JUN 15 2015
BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS TODAY OVER THE FRONT RANGE WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PW VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND AN
INCH THIS AFTERNOON SO HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED WITH STORMS. COULD SEE
INCREASE OF STREAM/RIVER LEVELS IN PROXIMITY TO STRONG STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WOULD EXPECT FOCUS OF STORMS WITH HEAVIEST
RAIN IN THE FOOTHILLS...PALMER DIVIDE AND PARK COUNTY GIVEN EAST
TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW THIS AFTERNOON.
NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FLOOD WARNINGS ALONG THE S PLATTE...CACHE LA
POUDRE RIVERS BUT THE WARNING ALONG S PLATTE IN JEFFERSON COUNTY
LOOKS TO GO BELOW FLOOD WARNING STAGE SOMETIME EARLY THIS MORNING.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...COOPER
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...COOPER
HYDROLOGY...BOWEN/ENTREKIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1043 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG
IT...PASSING SOUTH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE EXITING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE.
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS BEFORE DAYBREAK
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. AND WITH NO LIGHTNING ACTIVITY
HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THIS MORNING ONLY.
CHALLENGING TEMP FORECAST TODAY AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES WESTERN
ZONES AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG IT. BY LATE DAY...THIS
LOW TRACKS TOWARD NJ WITH FRONT JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.
ALOFT...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THE WESTERLIES. WAA AND PLENTY OF LIFT MOVES EAST...AS DOES
HIGH COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS. POPS QUICKLY LOWER AS MESOSCALE
MODELS ALONG WITH NWP MODELS INDICATE LOWER COVERAGE AFTER 13Z.
LATEST HRRR SEEMS QUITE REASONABLE.
ANY SHOWERS COULD BE HEAVY AS PW CONTENT REMAINS QUITE
HIGH...AROUND 2 INCHES.
ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TOWARD WESTERN LOCALES WHERE GREATEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE REALIZED DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONGER
TSTMS MAY DEVELOP LATE DAY. HOWEVER...IF FRONT LOCATION IS SLIGHTLY
WEST OF FORECAST...INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH DUE TO
MORE OF AN EASTERLY FLOW...MARINE INFLUENCE.
LARGE MAX TEMP SPREAD TODAY WITH EASTERLY FLOW KEEPING SE CT AND LI
MUCH COOLER THAN NE NJ. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S SE CT AND
ERN LI...TO THE MIDDLE 80S ACROSS NE NJ. FOLLOWED A MOS BLEND WITH
AN ATTEMPT TO MATCH SREF MEANS.
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR OCEAN BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
FORECAST AREA REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES.
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL BE TOUGH TO TIME AS THEY TRACK OVER THE
RIDGE.
SFC LOW LOOKS TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...WITH NEXT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NW TUESDAY. ECMWF LOOKS TO BE A GOOD
COMPROMISE BETWEEN FASTER GFS AND SLOWER NAM.
ANY EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL LIKELY PASS EAST OR WEAKEN WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA...AND
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THEN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT TUESDAY. AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY REMAINS IN QUESTION...BUT
WINDS ALOFT COULD SUPPORT SOME STRONGER STORMS.
MOS BLEND FOR TEMPS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A BLEND WILL PROVIDE BEST
GUESS AVERAGE WHERE DISPARITIES ARE NOTED IN THE MOS...ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALOFT...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY JET STREAM STAYS JUST NORTH OF
THE REGION FOR REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE MID LEVELS...THE
PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM A LOOSE HEIGHT GRADIENT WITH THE LOCAL AREA
BEING ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A LONGWAVE RIDGE TO A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
THAT EXHIBITS A TIGHTER HEIGHT GRADIENT. THE RIDGE WILL BE MORE FLAT
AND SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTHERN U.S. WITH ONE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH
HAVING PASSED TO THE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...A LESS
AMPLIFIED ONE WILL BE MOVING IN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
WITH A STRONGER ONE PASSING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
AT THE SURFACE...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE HIGH CENTER MOVES RIGHT
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY. IT WILL THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST OF
NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...MOVING ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
IN TERMS OF WEATHER...DRYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH A DRY DAY TO FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...THE
PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY FROM VALUES NEAR 2
INCHES TO VALUES APPROXIMATELY BETWEEN 0.6 AND 1 INCH...CONVEYING A
MUCH LESS HUMID AIRMASS. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT HOWEVER. THIS
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT FOLLOWED BY
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY LIMITED WITH
GENERALLY COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS SO NO THUNDERSTORMS WERE
MENTIONED WITH THE FORECAST BUT THE PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST DO
INCREASE TO NEAR 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES. DRY AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
THEREAFTER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM AS HUMIDITY LEVELS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A VERY CHALLENGING AVIATION WEATHER DAY IN THE NY METRO AND
VICINITY.
LOW PRESSURE ALONG A WARM FRONT WILL TRACK DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN TURN EAST TRACKING SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MARGINAL TO VFR FOR THE NY METRO AND HUDSON
VALLEY BY EARLY AFTN. IFR HOLDS ON FOR LONG ISLAND AND CT TODAY.
CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVER NJ THIS AFTERNOON THAT SPREADS INTO THE
NY METRO. TOO EARLY FOR SPECIFIC...SO USED VCTS.
LARGE UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES AROUND WIND DIRECTION FCST FOR THE NY
METRO THIS AFTN. TIMING OF SHIFT TO NE COULD BE OFF SEVERAL
HOURS. BUT DO EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT SWITCH TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE
NY METRO SOME TIME LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
IFR TO PERHAPS LIFR OVERNIGHT.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH FCST IN TERMS OF
TIMING. WIND SHIFT TO NE EXPECTED SOMETIME DURING LATE AFTN
DEPARTURE BANK.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH FCST IN TERMS OF
TIMING. WIND SHIFT TO NE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTN...BUT COULD BE
AS EARLY AS 18Z.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH FCST IN TERMS OF
TIMING. WIND DIRECTION THIS AFTN COULD STAY MORE SOUTHERLY...OR EVEN
SOUTHEAST.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH FCST IN TERMS OF
TIMING.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH FCST IN TERMS OF
TIMING.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF THE ONSET OF IFR.
COULD BE LATER THAN FCST.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUE-TUE NGT...IFR TO LOCALLY LIFR IN THE EARLY MORNING...BECOMING
VFR. MVFR IN AFTN SHRA/TSRA.
.WED...VFR.
.THU-FRI...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
UPDATED WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS FOR THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE FORECAST WIND AND SEAS REMAIN UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME.
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS FROM THE WEST TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURES RIDES ALONG IT. SE WINDS WILL INCREASE...MAINLY ACROSS
EASTERN WATERS...AND SPEEDS MAY APPROACH 25 KTS OVER THE EASTERN
OCEAN WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET FOR A TIME TODAY. WAVE WATCH
III BUILDS SEAS TO 5 FEET ACROSS THESE WATERS. AFTER COLLAB WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL ISSUE SCA FOR TODAY AND THROUGH THE
EVENING FOR THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS.
OTHERWISE...THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSES ACROSS THE OCEAN
ZONES TONIGHT...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY. SUB SCA
EXPECTED.
WITH GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS IN PLACE...CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO STAY BELOW SCA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED COVERAGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. EXPECT ANY FLASH
OR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WILL BE ISOLATED.
ANY HEAVIER SHOWER OR TSTM COULD PRODUCE A QUICK HALF INCH...BUT
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT QPF IS NOT ANTICIPATED FROM LATE THIS
MORNING ON.
WITH EACH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ESPECIALLY ANY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST...PRECIPITABLE WATERS COINCIDING WITH THESE ARE FORECAST TO
BE AT LEAST 1.5 INCHES. THEREFORE...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES WITH ANY OF THIS CONVECTION. ANY CONVECTION SUSTAINED...WOULD
LEAD TO URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ350.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JMC/TONGUE
MARINE...JM/PW
HYDROLOGY...JM/PW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
937 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG
IT...PASSING SOUTH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE EXITING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE.
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS BEFORE DAYBREAK
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. AND WITH NO LIGHTNING ACTIVITY
HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THIS MORNING ONLY.
CHALLENGING TEMP FORECAST TODAY AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES WESTERN
ZONES AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG IT. BY LATE DAY...THIS
LOW TRACKS TOWARD NJ WITH FRONT JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.
ALOFT...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THE WESTERLIES. WAA AND PLENTY OF LIFT MOVES EAST...AS DOES
HIGH COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS. POPS QUICKLY LOWER AS MESOSCALE
MODELS ALONG WITH NWP MODELS INDICATE LOWER COVERAGE AFTER 13Z.
LATEST HRRR SEEMS QUITE REASONABLE.
ANY SHOWERS COULD BE HEAVY AS PW CONTENT REMAINS QUITE
HIGH...AROUND 2 INCHES.
ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TOWARD WESTERN LOCALES WHERE GREATEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE REALIZED DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONGER
TSTMS MAY DEVELOP LATE DAY. HOWEVER...IF FRONT LOCATION IS SLIGHTLY
WEST OF FORECAST...INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH DUE TO
MORE OF AN EASTERLY FLOW...MARINE INFLUENCE.
LARGE MAX TEMP SPREAD TODAY WITH EASTERLY FLOW KEEPING SE CT AND LI
MUCH COOLER THAN NE NJ. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S SE CT AND
ERN LI...TO THE MIDDLE 80S ACROSS NE NJ. FOLLOWED A MOS BLEND WITH
AN ATTEMPT TO MATCH SREF MEANS.
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR OCEAN BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
FORECAST AREA REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES.
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL BE TOUGH TO TIME AS THEY TRACK OVER THE
RIDGE.
SFC LOW LOOKS TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...WITH NEXT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NW TUESDAY. ECMWF LOOKS TO BE A GOOD
COMPROMISE BETWEEN FASTER GFS AND SLOWER NAM.
ANY EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL LIKELY PASS EAST OR WEAKEN WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA...AND
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THEN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT TUESDAY. AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY REMAINS IN QUESTION...BUT
WINDS ALOFT COULD SUPPORT SOME STRONGER STORMS.
MOS BLEND FOR TEMPS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A BLEND WILL PROVIDE BEST
GUESS AVERAGE WHERE DISPARITIES ARE NOTED IN THE MOS...ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALOFT...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY JET STREAM STAYS JUST NORTH OF
THE REGION FOR REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE MID LEVELS...THE
PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM A LOOSE HEIGHT GRADIENT WITH THE LOCAL AREA
BEING ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A LONGWAVE RIDGE TO A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
THAT EXHIBITS A TIGHTER HEIGHT GRADIENT. THE RIDGE WILL BE MORE FLAT
AND SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTHERN U.S. WITH ONE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH
HAVING PASSED TO THE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...A LESS
AMPLIFIED ONE WILL BE MOVING IN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
WITH A STRONGER ONE PASSING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
AT THE SURFACE...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE HIGH CENTER MOVES RIGHT
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY. IT WILL THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST OF
NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...MOVING ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
IN TERMS OF WEATHER...DRYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH A DRY DAY TO FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...THE
PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY FROM VALUES NEAR 2
INCHES TO VALUES APPROXIMATELY BETWEEN 0.6 AND 1 INCH...CONVEYING A
MUCH LESS HUMID AIRMASS. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT HOWEVER. THIS
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT FOLLOWED BY
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY LIMITED WITH
GENERALLY COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS SO NO THUNDERSTORMS WERE
MENTIONED WITH THE FORECAST BUT THE PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST DO
INCREASE TO NEAR 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES. DRY AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
THEREAFTER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM AS HUMIDITY LEVELS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A VERY CHALLENGING AVIATION WEATHER DAY IN THE NY METRO AND
VICINITY.
LOW PRESSURE ALONG A WARM FRONT WILL TRACK DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN TURN EAST TRACKING SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
TONIGHT.
THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE MOVING EAST OVER EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND CT. GENERALLY
IFR TO START...CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MARGINAL TO VFR FOR THE NY
METRO AND HUDSON VALLEY BY LATE MORNING. IFR HOLDS ON FOR LONG
ISLAND AND CT.
CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVER NJ THIS AFTERNOON THAT SPREADS INTO THE
NY METRO. TOO EARLY FOR SPECIFIC...SO USED VCTS.
LARGE UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES AROUND WIND DIRECTION FCST FOR THE NY
METRO THIS AFTN. TIMING OF SHIFT TO NE COULD BE OFF SEVERAL
HOURS. BUT DO EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT SWITCH TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE
NY METRO SOME TIME LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
IFR TO PERHAPS LIFR OVERNIGHT.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH FCST IN TERMS OF
TIMING. WIND SHIFT TO NE EXPECTED SOMETIME DURING LATE AFTN
DEPARTURE BANK.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH FCST IN TERMS OF
TIMING. WIND SHIFT TO NE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTN...BUT COULD BE
AS EARLY AS 18Z.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH FCST IN TERMS OF
TIMING. WIND DIRECTION THIS AFTN COULD STAY MORE SOUTHERLY...OR EVEN
SOUTHEAST.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH FCST IN TERMS OF
TIMING.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH FCST IN TERMS OF
TIMING.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF THE ONSET OF IFR.
COULD BE LATER THAN FCST.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUE-TUE NGT...IFR TO LOCALLY LIFR IN THE EARLY MORNING...BECOMING
VFR. MVFR IN AFTN SHRA/TSRA.
.WED...VFR.
.THU-FRI...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
UPDATED WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS FOR THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE FORECAST WIND AND SEAS REMAIN UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME.
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS FROM THE WEST TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURES RIDES ALONG IT. SE WINDS WILL INCREASE...MAINLY ACROSS
EASTERN WATERS...AND SPEEDS MAY APPROACH 25 KTS OVER THE EASTERN
OCEAN WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET FOR A TIME TODAY. WAVE WATCH
III BUILDS SEAS TO 5 FEET ACROSS THESE WATERS. AFTER COLLAB WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL ISSUE SCA FOR TODAY AND THROUGH THE
EVENING FOR THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS.
OTHERWISE...THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSES ACROSS THE OCEAN
ZONES TONIGHT...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY. SUB SCA
EXPECTED.
WITH GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS IN PLACE...CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO STAY BELOW SCA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED COVERAGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. EXPECT ANY FLASH
OR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WILL BE ISOLATED.
ANY HEAVIER SHOWER OR TSTM COULD PRODUCE A QUICK HALF INCH...BUT
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT QPF IS NOT ANTICIPATED FROM LATE THIS
MORNING ON.
WITH EACH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ESPECIALLY ANY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST...PRECIPITABLE WATERS COINCIDING WITH THESE ARE FORECAST TO
BE AT LEAST 1.5 INCHES. THEREFORE...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES WITH ANY OF THIS CONVECTION. ANY CONVECTION SUSTAINED...WOULD
LEAD TO URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ350.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
747 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG
IT...PASSING SOUTH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE EXITING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE.
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS BEFORE DAYBREAK
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO BETTER MATCH RADAR REFLECTIVITY TRENDS
AS MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS MOVE EAST ACROSS EASTERN LONG
ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT. POPS TREND FROM CHANCE FOR WESTERN AREAS
TO CATEGORICAL FOR MOST EASTERN AREAS.
CHALLENGING TEMP FORECAST TODAY AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES WESTERN
ZONES AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG IT. BY LATE DAY...THIS
LOW TRACKS TOWARD NJ WITH FRONT JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.
ALOFT...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THE WESTERLIES. WAA AND PLENTY OF LIFT MOVES EAST...AS DOES
HIGH COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS. POPS QUICKLY LOWER AS MESOSCALE
MODELS ALONG WITH NWP MODELS INDICATE LOWER COVERAGE AFTER 13Z.
LATEST HRRR SEEMS QUITE REASONABLE.
ANY SHOWERS COULD BE HEAVY AS PW CONTENT REMAINS QUITE
HIGH...AROUND 2 INCHES.
ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TOWARD WESTERN LOCALES WHERE GREATEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE REALIZED DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONGER
TSTMS MAY DEVELOP LATE DAY. HOWEVER...IF FRONT LOCATION IS SLIGHTLY
WEST OF FORECAST...INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH DUE TO
MORE OF AN EASTERLY FLOW...MARINE INFLUENCE.
LARGE MAX TEMP SPREAD TODAY WITH EASTERLY FLOW KEEPING SE CT AND LI
MUCH COOLER THAN NE NJ. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S SE CT AND
ERN LI...TO THE MIDDLE 80S ACROSS NE NJ. FOLLOWED A MOS BLEND WITH
AN ATTEMPT TO MATCH SREF MEANS.
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR OCEAN BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
FORECAST AREA REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES.
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL BE TOUGH TO TIME AS THEY TRACK OVER THE
RIDGE.
SFC LOW LOOKS TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...WITH NEXT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NW TUESDAY. ECMWF LOOKS TO BE A GOOD
COMPROMISE BETWEEN FASTER GFS AND SLOWER NAM.
ANY EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL LIKELY PASS EAST OR WEAKEN WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA...AND
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THEN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT TUESDAY. AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY REMAINS IN QUESTION...BUT
WINDS ALOFT COULD SUPPORT SOME STRONGER STORMS.
MOS BLEND FOR TEMPS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A BLEND WILL PROVIDE BEST
GUESS AVERAGE WHERE DISPARITIES ARE NOTED IN THE MOS...ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALOFT...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY JET STREAM STAYS JUST NORTH OF
THE REGION FOR REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE MID LEVELS...THE
PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM A LOOSE HEIGHT GRADIENT WITH THE LOCAL AREA
BEING ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A LONGWAVE RIDGE TO A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
THAT EXHIBITS A TIGHTER HEIGHT GRADIENT. THE RIDGE WILL BE MORE FLAT
AND SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTHERN U.S. WITH ONE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH
HAVING PASSED TO THE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...A LESS
AMPLIFIED ONE WILL BE MOVING IN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
WITH A STRONGER ONE PASSING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
AT THE SURFACE...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE HIGH CENTER MOVES RIGHT
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY. IT WILL THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST OF
NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...MOVING ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
IN TERMS OF WEATHER...DRYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH A DRY DAY TO FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...THE
PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY FROM VALUES NEAR 2
INCHES TO VALUES APPROXIMATELY BETWEEN 0.6 AND 1 INCH...CONVEYING A
MUCH LESS HUMID AIRMASS. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT HOWEVER. THIS
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT FOLLOWED BY
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY LIMITED WITH
GENERALLY COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS SO NO THUNDERSTORMS WERE
MENTIONED WITH THE FORECAST BUT THE PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST DO
INCREASE TO NEAR 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES. DRY AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
THEREAFTER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM AS HUMIDITY LEVELS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A VERY CHALLENGING AVIATION WEATHER DAY IN THE NY METRO AND
VICINITY.
LOW PRESSURE ALONG A WARM FRONT WILL TRACK DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN TURN EAST TRACKING SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
TONIGHT.
THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE MOVING EAST OVER EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND CT. GENERALLY
IFR TO START...CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MARGINAL TO VFR FOR THE NY
METRO AND HUDSON VALLEY BY LATE MORNING. IFR HOLDS ON FOR LONG
ISLAND AND CT.
CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVER NJ THIS AFTERNOON THAT SPREADS INTO THE
NY METRO. TOO EARLY FOR SPECIFIC...SO USED VCTS.
LARGE UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES AROUND WIND DIRECTION FCST FOR THE NY
METRO THIS AFTN. TIMING OF SHIFT TO NE COULD BE OFF SEVERAL
HOURS. BUT DO EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT SWITCH TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE
NY METRO SOME TIME LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
IFR TO PERHAPS LIFR OVERNIGHT.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH FCST IN TERMS OF
TIMING. WIND SHIFT TO NE EXPECTED SOMETIME DURING LATE AFTN
DEPARTURE BANK.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH FCST IN TERMS OF
TIMING. WIND SHIFT TO NE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTN...BUT COULD BE
AS EARLY AS 18Z.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH FCST IN TERMS OF
TIMING. WIND DIRECTION THIS AFTN COULD STAY MORE SOUTHERLY...OR EVEN
SOUTHEAST.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH FCST IN TERMS OF
TIMING.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH FCST IN TERMS OF
TIMING.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF THE ONSET OF IFR.
COULD BE LATER THAN FCST.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUE-TUE NGT...IFR TO LOCALLY LIFR IN THE EARLY MORNING...BECOMING
VFR. MVFR IN AFTN SHRA/TSRA.
.WED...VFR.
.THU-FRI...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS FROM THE WEST TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURES RIDES ALONG IT. SE WINDS WILL INCREASE...MAINLY ACROSS
EASTERN WATERS...AND SPEEDS MAY APPROACH 25 KTS OVER THE EASTERN
OCEAN WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET FOR A TIME TODAY. WAVE WATCH
III BUILDS SEAS TO 5 FEET ACROSS THESE WATERS. AFTER COLLAB WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL ISSUE SCA FOR TODAY AND THROUGH THE
EVENING FOR THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS.
OTHERWISE...THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSES ACROSS THE OCEAN
ZONES TONIGHT...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY. SUB SCA
EXPECTED.
WITH GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS IN PLACE...CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO STAY BELOW SCA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ONCE THIS INITIAL AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDERSTORMS MOVES
EAST...EXPECT SCATTERED COVERAGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
FEEL ANY FLASH OR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WILL BE
ISOLATED.
ANY HEAVIER SHOWER OR TSTM COULD PRODUCE A QUICK HALF INCH...BUT
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT QPF IS NOT ANTICIPATED FROM LATE THIS
MORNING ON.
WITH EACH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ESPECIALLY ANY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST...PRECIPITABLE WATERS COINCIDING WITH THESE ARE FORECAST TO
BE AT LEAST 1.5 INCHES. THEREFORE...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES WITH ANY OF THIS CONVECTION. ANY CONVECTION SUSTAINED...WOULD
LEAD TO URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ350.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/PW
NEAR TERM...PW/JM
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...TONGUE
MARINE...JM/PW
HYDROLOGY...JM/PW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
623 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG
IT...PASSING SOUTH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE EXITING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE.
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS BEFORE DAYBREAK
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CHALLENGING TEMP FORECAST TODAY AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES WESTERN
ZONES AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG IT. BY LATE DAY...THIS
LOW TRACKS TOWARD NJ WITH FRONT JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.
ALOFT...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THE WESTERLIES. WAA AND PLENTY OF LIFT MOVES EAST...AS DOES
HIGH COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS. POPS QUICKLY LOWER AS MESOSCALE
MODELS ALONG WITH NWP MODELS INDICATE LOWER COVERAGE AFTER 13Z.
LATEST HRRR SEEMS QUITE REASONABLE.
ANY SHOWERS COULD BE HEAVY AS PW CONTENT REMAINS QUITE
HIGH...AROUND 2 INCHES.
ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TOWARD WESTERN LOCALES WHERE GREATEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE REALIZED DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONGER
TSTMS MAY DEVELOP LATE DAY. HOWEVER...IF FRONT LOCATION IS SLIGHTLY
WEST OF FORECAST...INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH DUE TO
MORE OF AN EASTERLY FLOW...MARINE INFLUENCE.
LARGE MAX TEMP SPREAD TODAY WITH EASTERLY FLOW KEEPING SE CT AND LI
MUCH COOLER THAN NE NJ. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S SE CT AND
ERN LI...TO THE MIDDLE 80S ACROSS NE NJ. FOLLOWED A MOS BLEND WITH
AN ATTEMPT TO MATCH SREF MEANS.
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR OCEAN BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
FORECAST AREA REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES.
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL BE TOUGH TO TIME AS THEY TRACK OVER THE
RIDGE.
SFC LOW LOOKS TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...WITH NEXT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NW TUESDAY. ECMWF LOOKS TO BE A GOOD
COMPROMISE BETWEEN FASTER GFS AND SLOWER NAM.
ANY EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL LIKELY PASS EAST OR WEAKEN WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA...AND
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THEN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT TUESDAY. AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY REMAINS IN QUESTION...BUT
WINDS ALOFT COULD SUPPORT SOME STRONGER STORMS.
MOS BLEND FOR TEMPS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A BLEND WILL PROVIDE BEST
GUESS AVERAGE WHERE DISPARITIES ARE NOTED IN THE MOS...ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALOFT...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY JET STREAM STAYS JUST NORTH OF
THE REGION FOR REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE MID LEVELS...THE
PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM A LOOSE HEIGHT GRADIENT WITH THE LOCAL AREA
BEING ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A LONGWAVE RIDGE TO A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
THAT EXHIBITS A TIGHTER HEIGHT GRADIENT. THE RIDGE WILL BE MORE FLAT
AND SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTHERN U.S. WITH ONE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH
HAVING PASSED TO THE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...A LESS
AMPLIFIED ONE WILL BE MOVING IN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
WITH A STRONGER ONE PASSING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
AT THE SURFACE...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE HIGH CENTER MOVES RIGHT
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY. IT WILL THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST OF
NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...MOVING ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
IN TERMS OF WEATHER...DRYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH A DRY DAY TO FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...THE
PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY FROM VALUES NEAR 2
INCHES TO VALUES APPROXIMATELY BETWEEN 0.6 AND 1 INCH...CONVEYING A
MUCH LESS HUMID AIRMASS. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT HOWEVER. THIS
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT FOLLOWED BY
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY LIMITED WITH
GENERALLY COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS SO NO THUNDERSTORMS WERE
MENTIONED WITH THE FORECAST BUT THE PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST DO
INCREASE TO NEAR 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES. DRY AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
THEREAFTER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM AS HUMIDITY LEVELS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A VERY CHALLENGING AVIATION WEATHER DAY IN THE NY METRO AND
VICINITY.
LOW PRESSURE ALONG A WARM FRONT WILL TRACK DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN TURN EAST TRACKING SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
TONIGHT.
THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM ARE
MOVING EAST OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. IN IT`S
WAKE...EXPECT IFR CIGS FOR MOST OF THE REGION. CONDITIONS IMPROVE
TO MARGINAL OR PERHAPS VFR FOR THE NY METRO AND HUDSON VALLEY BY
LATE MORNING. IFR HOLDS ON FOR LONG ISLAND AND CT.
CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVER NJ THIS AFTERNOON. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON
THE COVERAGE.
LARGE UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES AROUND WIND DIRECTION FCST FOR THE NY
METRO THIS AFTN. TIMING OF SHIFT TO NE COULD BE OFF SEVERAL
HOURS...BUT CERTAINLY DO EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT SWITCH TO THE
NORTHEAST IN THE NY METRO SOME TIME LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
IFR TO PERHAPS LIFR OVERNIGHT.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH FCST IN TERMS OF
TIMING. WIND SHIFT TO NE EXPECTED SOMETIME DURING LATE AFTN
DEPARTURE BANK.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH FCST IN TERMS OF
TIMING. WIND SHIFT TO NE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTN...BUT COULD BE
AS EARLY AS 18Z.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH FCST IN TERMS OF
TIMING. WIND DIRECTION THIS AFTN COULD STAY MORE SOUTHERLY.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH FCST IN TERMS OF
TIMING.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH FCST IN TERMS OF
TIMING.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF THE ONSET OF IFR.
COULD BE LATER THAN FCST.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUE-TUE NGT...IFR TO LOCALLY LIFR IN THE MORNING...BECOMING VFR.
MVFR IN POSSIBLE AFTN SHRA/TSRA.
.WED...VFR.
.THU-FRI...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS FROM THE WEST TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURES RIDES ALONG IT. SE WINDS WILL INCREASE...MAINLY ACROSS
EASTERN WATERS...AND SPEEDS MAY APPROACH 25 KTS OVER THE EASTERN
OCEAN WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET FOR A TIME TODAY. WAVE WATCH
III BUILDS SEAS TO 5 FEET ACROSS THESE WATERS. AFTER COLLAB WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL ISSUE SCA FOR TODAY AND THROUGH THE
EVENING FOR THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS.
OTHERWISE...THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSES ACROSS THE OCEAN
ZONES TONIGHT...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY. SUB SCA
EXPECTED.
WITH GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS IN PLACE...CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO STAY BELOW SCA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ONCE THIS INITIAL AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDERSTORMS MOVES
EAST...EXPECT SCATTERED COVERAGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
FEEL ANY FLASH OR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WILL BE
ISOLATED.
ANY HEAVIER SHOWER OR TSTM COULD PRODUCE A QUICK HALF INCH...BUT
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT QPF IS NOT ANTICIPATED FROM LATE THIS
MORNING ON.
WITH EACH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ESPECIALLY ANY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST...PRECIPITABLE WATERS COINCIDING WITH THESE ARE FORECAST TO
BE AT LEAST 1.5 INCHES. THEREFORE...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES WITH ANY OF THIS CONVECTION. ANY CONVECTION SUSTAINED...WOULD
LEAD TO URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ350.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...TONGUE
MARINE...JM/PW
HYDROLOGY...JM/PW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
126 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AS
WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THE RAIN WILL COME DOWN MODERATE
TO HEAVY AT TIMES. ONCE AGAIN THE ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SO THE THREAT FOR STORMS
WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. A COLD FRONT
IS THEN EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY TRIGGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS BOUNDARY A LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE
USHERED INTO THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 110 AM EDT...AREAS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE
EXPANDING NE INTO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTH INTO
THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH AREAS OF LIGHTER RAIN FURTHER EAST
AND SOUTH. THUS FAR...IT APPEARS THAT THE DEEPER CONVECTION ACROSS
SW PA/EASTERN OH HAS REDUCED SOME OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE REGION. HOWEVER...AS THIS CONVECTION WEAKENS AND TRANSLATES
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH DAYBREAK...THE PROSPECTS FOR AREAS
OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS OUR REGION WILL INCREASE. SOME RUMBLES OF
THUNDER COULD ALSO OCCUR AS SHOWALTER INDICES ARE FORECAST TO DIP
INTO THE 0 TO -1 C RANGE THROUGH 12Z/MON.
THE LATEST 04Z 3KM HRRR SHOWS RAINFALL SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER OUR AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS
PWATS SURGE OVER 1.50 INCHES ACROSS OUR AREA THANKS TO THE
PERSISTENT S-SW FLOW ALOFT AND THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS START TO
SHIFT TOWARDS OUR REGION. WITH THIS EXPECTED RAINFALL...WE ARE
ANTICIPATING A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE
AND LOW LYING AREAS MAY OCCUR. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING CAN NOT BE
RULE OUT ESPECIALLY OVER AN URBANIZED LOCATION. NO FLASH FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME SINCE DO NOT HAVE THE
CONFIDENCE FOR A WIDER FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS THE REGION BUT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE
THROUGH. THE THREAT FOR THE MODERATE TO HEAVY WILL TAPER OFF
DURING THE MORNING...HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. MODERATE SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY SO GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER
STORMS. IT WILL BE RATHER COOL MONDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE LOWER 60S TO MID 70S DUE THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
THE STORMS.
EXPECTING A LULL IN ACTIVITY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION...HOWEVER A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
SWEEP ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. IT WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM
WITH HIGHS IN MID 70S TO LOWER 80S TUESDAY AND PWATS WILL STILL BE
RATHER HIGH OVER 1.5 INCHES. IN ADDITION...MODERATE SHEAR WILL BE
PRESENT SO SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER AS THE LOCAL AREA IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. HAVE THREAT
HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED
INTO THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY INCLEMENT WEATHER WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...SHOULD BE DRY. HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY
GETS QUICKLY DISPLACED BY A WARM FRONT AND SHOWERS FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY TWO COLD FRONTS THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY... MARKING THE START OF A SHORT DRY REPRIEVE. A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES AGAIN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY...BRINGING MORE SHOWERS AND
HUMIDITY.
WEDNESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER
80S...COOLING TO THE AROUND 70 TO UPPER 70S RANGE THURSDAY...AND
SLOWLY MODERATING INTO THE MID 70S TO MID 80S RANGE BY SUNDAY. LOWS
FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE ANYWHERE FROM
THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH FRIDAY NIGHT BEING COOLEST.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT VFR CONDITIONS DESPITE THE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. LOOKING UPSTREAM...THE NEAREST
IFR CONDITIONS WERE ALONG OR WEST OF I81. SO WE WILL RETAIN VFR
CONDITIONS AS THE DOMINANT GROUP WITH A TEMPO FOR IFR CONDITIONS
AS THE HEAVIER SHOWERS TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR A PROLONGED IFR CONDITIONS WOULD BE AT KPSF DUE TO HIGHER
LOCATION AND PRECIP MAY HOLD ON LONGER THAN THOSE TAFS IN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...MOST OF THE PRECIP WOULD BE SCATTERED
AT BEST AS WE WILL CONTINUE WITH VCSH AT THIS TIME. CIGS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN IN MVFR AS LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER HIGH
AND BELOW THE DRIER AIR ALOFT.
WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT SPEEDS 6KTS OR LESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z/TUE.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA..TSRA
EARLY IN THE EVENING.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AS
WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THE RAIN WILL COME DOWN MODERATE
TO HEAVY AT TIMES. ONCE AGAIN THE ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SO THE THREAT FOR STORMS
WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. A COLD FRONT
IS THEN EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY TRIGGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS BOUNDARY A LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE
USHERED INTO THE REGION. MORE WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A WARM FRONT WILL IMPACT
THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY. WITH PWAT VALUES WILL BE RISING
TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES SO MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AT
TIMES. ANTICIPATING A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS MAY OCCUR. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
CAN NOT BE RULE OUT ESPECIALLY OVER AN URBANIZED LOCATION. NO
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME SINCE DO NOT HAVE
THE CONFIDENCE FOR A WIDER FLASH FLOOD THREAT. CONTINUE TO HAVE
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING THREAT HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND ADDED MENTION OF ISOLATED FLASH
FLOOD.
THE THREAT WILL CONTINUE THREAT FOR CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY HOWEVER IT WILL BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DAY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IMPACTS THE REGION.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...FRUGIS/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
102 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AS
WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THE RAIN WILL COME DOWN MODERATE
TO HEAVY AT TIMES. ONCE AGAIN THE ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SO THE THREAT FOR STORMS
WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. A COLD FRONT
IS THEN EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY TRIGGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS BOUNDARY A LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE
USHERED INTO THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 110 AM EDT...AREAS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE
EXPANDING NE INTO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTH INTO
THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH AREAS OF LIGHTER RAIN FURTHER EAST
AND SOUTH. THUS FAR...IT APPEARS THAT THE DEEPER CONVECTION ACROSS
SW PA/EASTERN OH HAS REDUCED SOME OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE REGION. HOWEVER...AS THIS CONVECTION WEAKENS AND TRANSLATES
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH DAYBREAK...THE PROSPECTS FOR AREAS
OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS OUR REGION WILL INCREASE. SOME RUMBLES OF
THUNDER COULD ALSO OCCUR AS SHOWALTER INDICES ARE FORECAST TO DIP
INTO THE 0 TO -1 C RANGE THROUGH 12Z/MON.
THE LATEST 04Z 3KM HRRR SHOWS RAINFALL SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER OUR AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS
PWATS SURGE OVER 1.50 INCHES ACROSS OUR AREA THANKS TO THE
PERSISTENT S-SW FLOW ALOFT AND THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS START TO
SHIFT TOWARDS OUR REGION. WITH THIS EXPECTED RAINFALL...WE ARE
ANTICIPATING A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE
AND LOW LYING AREAS MAY OCCUR. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING CAN NOT BE
RULE OUT ESPECIALLY OVER AN URBANIZED LOCATION. NO FLASH FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME SINCE DO NOT HAVE THE
CONFIDENCE FOR A WIDER FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS THE REGION BUT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE
THROUGH. THE THREAT FOR THE MODERATE TO HEAVY WILL TAPER OFF
DURING THE MORNING...HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. MODERATE SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY SO GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER
STORMS. IT WILL BE RATHER COOL MONDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE LOWER 60S TO MID 70S DUE THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
THE STORMS.
EXPECTING A LULL IN ACTIVITY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION...HOWEVER A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
SWEEP ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. IT WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM
WITH HIGHS IN MID 70S TO LOWER 80S TUESDAY AND PWATS WILL STILL BE
RATHER HIGH OVER 1.5 INCHES. IN ADDITION...MODERATE SHEAR WILL BE
PRESENT SO SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER AS THE LOCAL AREA IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. HAVE THREAT
HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED
INTO THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY INCLEMENT WEATHER WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...SHOULD BE DRY. HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY
GETS QUICKLY DISPLACED BY A WARM FRONT AND SHOWERS FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY TWO COLD FRONTS THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY... MARKING THE START OF A SHORT DRY REPRIEVE. A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES AGAIN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY...BRINGING MORE SHOWERS AND
HUMIDITY.
WEDNESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER
80S...COOLING TO THE AROUND 70 TO UPPER 70S RANGE THURSDAY...AND
SLOWLY MODERATING INTO THE MID 70S TO MID 80S RANGE BY SUNDAY. LOWS
FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE ANYWHERE FROM
THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH FRIDAY NIGHT BEING COOLEST.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR...BUT WILL BE LOWERING TO MVFR
AT TIMES LATER THIS EVENING DUE TO SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE REGION.
SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE HEAVIER AFTER 06Z...SO WILL EXPECT MAINLY
IFR CONDITIONS FOR LATE TONIGHT WITHIN THESE HEAVIER SHOWERS. LTG
LOOKS RATHER LIMITED AT THIS TIME...SO NOT ENOUGH EXPECTED
COVERAGE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME...BUT CAN/T TOTALLY
RULE OUT A RUMBLE SOMEWHERE ONE OF THAT TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS WILL BECOME SE...BUT ONLY AROUND 5 KTS OR SO.
SHOWERS WILL START TO TAPER OFF ON MONDAY MORNING...ALLOWING FOR
MVFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT FROM A
S-SE DIRECTION AT 5-10 KTS. SHOWERS SHOULD END BY THE EARLY AFTN
HOURS...BUT LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY KEEP MVFR CLOUDS
AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA..TSRA
EARLY IN THE EVENING.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AS
WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THE RAIN WILL COME DOWN MODERATE
TO HEAVY AT TIMES. ONCE AGAIN THE ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SO THE THREAT FOR STORMS
WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. A COLD FRONT
IS THEN EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY TRIGGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS BOUNDARY A LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE
USHERED INTO THE REGION. MORE WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A WARM FRONT WILL IMPACT
THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY. WITH PWAT VALUES WILL BE RISING
TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES SO MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AT
TIMES. ANTICIPATING A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS MAY OCCUR. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
CAN NOT BE RULE OUT ESPECIALLY OVER AN URBANIZED LOCATION. NO
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME SINCE DO NOT HAVE
THE CONFIDENCE FOR A WIDER FLASH FLOOD THREAT. CONTINUE TO HAVE
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING THREAT HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND ADDED MENTION OF ISOLATED FLASH
FLOOD.
THE THREAT WILL CONTINUE THREAT FOR CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY HOWEVER IT WILL BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DAY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IMPACTS THE REGION.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
.UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS MAINLY THE
GULF WATERS THIS EVENING. LATEST HRRR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS
STREAMING WEST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE NIGHT UNDER
THE EASTERLY FLOW. THEREFORE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH 06Z. ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
POP AND WEATHER GRIDS TO ADJUST FOR THE LATEST TRENDING.
OTHERWISE...THE ONGOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 747 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015/
AVIATION...
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH IN NAPLES BY 1Z...THEN DRY TAFS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS CANT BE RULED OUT BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE
30 PERCENT OR LESS. EAST WIND 10 KT PREVAIL...EXCEPT FOR KAPF
WHERE CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL TURN WESTERLY WED AS GULF BREEZE
KICKS IN.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015/
DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS
THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON UNDER EASTERLY FLOW. BELIEVE ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN
INTERIOR AND GULF COASTAL AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING AS A WEAK GULF BREEZE PUSHES INLAND. THE MAIN THREATS TO
THESE STORMS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. LATEST HI-
RES MODELS SHOW THIS ACTIVITY DISSIPATING DURING THE EVENING HOURS
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS.
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN A PERSISTENT DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
STRONG UPPER RIDGING CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. BY THE LATE
WEEK PERIOD AND INTO THE WEEKEND...THIS RIDGE MAY SLIDE A BIT TO THE
EAST AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM
BILL BEGIN TO PUSH TO THE EAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
REGARDLESS...EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
RESULTING IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST EACH DAY.
MARINE...
AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND OF AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH SEAS OF 2 FEET OR LESS OVER BOTH THE
ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 78 91 79 91 / 10 10 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 79 89 80 89 / 10 10 30 20
MIAMI 78 91 79 89 / 10 10 20 20
NAPLES 76 91 76 91 / 10 20 30 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...10/CD
AVIATION...23/SK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
1148 AM MDT MON JUN 15 2015
.UPDATE...INCREASED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...INTENSIFIED THUNDERSTORM WORDING WITH UPDATED SPC SLIGHT
RISK ADDITION. HAVE TOUCHED VERY LITTLE BEYOND TUE NIGHT AS
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DURING THAT PERIOD HAS CHANGED LITTLE.
HAVE ALREADY HAD GUSTS TO 50 MPH IN THE BEAR LAKE REGION FROM THE
MORNING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAS ALREADY PASSED.
UPDATES FORTHCOMING.
MESSICK
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 AM MDT MON JUN 15 2015/
DISCUSSION...ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH A
WEAK WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON. EXPECT TO
SEE A SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES
ONSHORE LATER TODAY. SURFACE PROGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A LOW
LIFTING OUT OF NEVADA AND ACROSS UTAH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. FORECAST MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG AND MODEST
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUPPORT SPC MRGL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE MAIN THREAT TO BE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WITH
SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. HRRR REFLECTIVITY
FORECAST INITIATES CONVECTION AROUND THE SODA SPRINGS AREA SHORTLY
AFTER NOON AND EXPANDS IT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HIGHLANDS
THEREAFTER. THE NAM WANTS TO START CONVECTION BEFORE SUNRISE THIS
MORNING AND THE GFS IS GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT. KEPT SLIGHT POPS
FOR SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS THIS MORNING AND EXPANDING IT OUT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TOMORROW OVER THE EASTERN
HIGHLANDS...BUT A DRIER FLOW WILL KICK IN FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE WEEK KEEPING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS WITH DRY AND WARM WEATHER CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.
HINSBERGER
$$
AVIATION...AN UPPER TROF MOVES THRU THE PAC NW TODAY...RESULTING IN
SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS BY LATE AFTN AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVE. SOME
TSTMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. OVERALL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THRU TONIGHT. HEDGES
FIRE WEATHER...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE PAC NW
TODAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL
IDAHO MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS. THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS
MAINLY DRY AND WARM...WITH WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
HEDGES
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
234 AM MDT MON JUN 15 2015
.DISCUSSION...ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH A
WEAK WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON. EXPECT TO
SEE A SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES
ONSHORE LATER TODAY. SURFACE PROGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A LOW
LIFTING OUT OF NEVADA AND ACROSS UTAH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. FORECAST MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG AND MODEST
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUPPORT SPC MRGL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE MAIN THREAT TO BE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WITH
SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. HRRR REFLECTIVITY
FORECAST INITIATES CONVECTION AROUND THE SODA SPRINGS AREA SHORTLY
AFTER NOON AND EXPANDS IT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HIGHLANDS
THEREAFTER. THE NAM WANTS TO START CONVECTION BEFORE SUNRISE THIS
MORNING AND THE GFS IS GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT. KEPT SLIGHT POPS
FOR SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS THIS MORNING AND EXPANDING IT OUT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TOMORROW OVER THE EASTERN
HIGHLANDS...BUT A DRIER FLOW WILL KICK IN FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE WEEK KEEPING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS WITH DRY AND WARM WEATHER CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.
HINSBERGER
$$
.AVIATION...AN UPPER TROF MOVES THRU THE PAC NW TODAY...RESULTING IN
SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS BY LATE AFTN AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVE. SOME
TSTMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. OVERALL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THRU TONIGHT. HEDGES
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE PAC NW
TODAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL
IDAHO MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS. THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS
MAINLY DRY AND WARM...WITH WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
HEDGES
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
905 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
THE 01Z/8PM SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A SLIGHT MOVEMENT OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE NORTH INTO OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAINFALL SOUTH OF I-70, THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE WILL CAUSE SHOWERS TO OVERSPREAD AREAS SOUTH OF I-72
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE FRONT MAY REACH AS FAR NORTH AS I-74
BY 12Z. HRRR AND RAP OUTPUT INDICATE MOST OF THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS
AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN S OF I-72 IN THE SIDE OF
THE FRONT WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO 70F. THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE, BASED ON THE WETTING RAINS THIS
EVENING AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. CLOUD COVER WILL THICKEN NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT, KEEPING
LOWS ON THE MILD SIDE WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS. LIGHT FOG WILL
INCREASE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT WHERE WINDS BECOME LIGHT
LATER TONIGHT.
UPDATES THIS EVENING WERE DONE TO THE POP AND WEATHER GRIDS TO
SLOW DOWN THE NORTHWARD PUSH OF RAIN, WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
LOW TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS. UPDATED INFO IS ALREADY AVAILABLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
AFTERNOON SURFACE DATA SHOWS BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
IL. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...UNSTABLE AIR WITH MUCAPE OF
3000 CONTINUES TO FEED FROM MO AND TO THE SOUTH (AS SEEN IN THE
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY). MODELS MOVE THE PCPN NORTH AS THE FRONT
MOVES NORTH WITH THE APPROACHING ND UPPER WAVE. THE RESULT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCTION AND A CONTINUED FLASH FLOOD THREAT OVERNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
WET WEATHER AND POTENTIAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE IT STILL APPEARS
UNLIKELY THAT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A DRY DAY BEFORE
MONDAY, THERE ARE STILL PERIODS THAT APPEAR FAVORED FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD & HEAVIER RAINFALL, AS WELL AS VICE VERSA. THE BIGGEST
FLY IN THE OINTMENT REMAINS THE DISPOSITION OF THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL STORM BILL. THERE IS STILL A NOTABLE SPREAD IN THE
TIMING/TRACK OF THE SYSTEM, PRECIPITATION SPREAD AROUND THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION, AS WELL WITH INTRA-MODEL RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. THE
MOST NOTABLE MODEL TREND THAT IS AGREED UPON HAS BEEN FOR A SLOWER
ARRIVAL OF THE REMNANTS, WITH SOME OF THE SLOWEST SOLUTIONS (12
ECMWF FOR EXAMPLE) KEEPING THE ASSOCIATED RAIN THREAT AROUND WELL
INTO SATURDAY.
THE GENERALLY W-E ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STALLED OVER
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WILL LIFT BACK NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY PUSHING EAST
INTO THE PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BOOST SHOWER/STORM CHANCES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL THE WAVE PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN THE FORECAST ARE SHOULD SEE A RELATIVE LULL IN
THE RAIN THREAT, LIKE TODAY, UNTIL THE REMNANTS OF BOB APPROACH AND
EVENTUALLY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE BEST
FORCING AND RAINFALL THREAT WITH THE REMNANTS ARRIVING THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LIKELY ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
OF AROUND 2" OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL THE TROPICAL
REMNANTS DEPART SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ANYWHERE A
SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM GETS GOING AND/OR WHERE NUMEROUS RAIN
EVENTS OCCUR. ON THE UPSIDE, THE TROPICAL-LIKE AIRMASS AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK LAPSE RATE, AS WELL AS MODEST SHEAR PROFILES, ARE
NOT CONDUCIVE TO MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
ANOTHER BRIEF LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL FOLLOW THE
REMNANTS OF BILL UNTIL A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE
SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT, COOLER AND
LESS HUMID AIR WILL BE ABLE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA, LIKELY
RESULTING IN A DRY START TO THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
THE BAND OF RAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
NORTH OVERNIGHT, AFFECTING THE TERMINAL SITES WITH STEADY RAINS
AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORMS. IFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT, AS THE PRECIPITATION MAKES A MORE
PROMINENT NORTHWARD PUSH. LIFR IS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS, AND WE LEFT OVC004 IN MOST TAF SITES FOR NOW. VIS WILL
DROP TO IFR, WITH 2SM BR DEVELOPING IN ADDITION TO THE -RA/-TSRA.
AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW, WHILE THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE
RAIN/STORMS FOR A FEW HOURS, CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER IN
THE IFR/LIFR LEVELS UNTIL 16Z, BEFORE IMPROVING TO MVFR DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE TERMINAL
SITES WILL BRING A RETURN TO STORM CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON,
WHICH WE ACKNOWLEDGED WITH A VCTS FOR NOW.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR ILZ052-054>057-
061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SHIMON
SHORT TERM...GOETSCH
LONG TERM...BAK
AVIATION...SHIMON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
354 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
A COLD FRONT OVER WISCONSIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT CAUSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA TUESDAY... CONFINING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA AND THEN LIFT BACK NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN BACK TO THE AREA. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S... WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH HAS BEEN STNRY FOR SOME TIME TO OUR NORTH
WAS BEGINNING TO MAKE SEWD PROGRESS TODAY IN RESPONSE TO A SHRTWV
MOVG ACROSS ONTARIO MERGING WITH SECOND SYSTEM LIFTING NE FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA WITH
PWATS AROUND 2" HAS DESTABILIZED IN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY ALLOWING
NUMEROUS TSTMS TO DEVELOP. SOME BACKBUILDING/TRAINING CELLS OCRG
ATTM AS SUGGESTED BY RAP 5-10KT UPWIND PROPAGATION VECTORS. LATEST
HRRR SUGGESTS SCT-NUMEROUS STORMS WILL CONT LATE THIS AFTN AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WITH MORE WIDESPREAD TSTMS FORMING ALONG THE FRONT
LATE THIS AFTN AND MOVG THROUGH OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. THUS... STILL
APPEARS TO BE A GOOD SETUP FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS OUR AREA
SO FFA ISSUED EARLIER TODAY WILL CONT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
CDFNT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE STALLING OUT ON
TUE. SOME LINGERING POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS PSBL IN THE MORNING AND WK
INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW A FEW MORE TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN... BUT
OVERALL APPEARS TO BE A DAY TO DRY OUT.
WK CAA BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE 60S
TONIGHT WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS ALLOWING HIGHS TO
REACH THE L-M80S ON TUE.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
WET PATTERN AND FLOODING CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A CONSISTENT SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FEED PUMPS PWAT
VALUES AOA 2.0" INTO THE CWA. ONLY DAY OF RELIEF IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD MAY BE FRIDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SLIDES THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES AND TRIES TO SLIDE OUR PESKY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOUTHWARD. SOME PRECIP IS STILL POSSIBLE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY ON
FRIDAY...BUT THE HIGHLY EFFICIENT WARM CLOUD PROCESSES WILL CEASE
NORTH OF THE FRONT. THE REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY
IN THE WESTERN GULF ADVECT INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND
RETURN THE MUGGY CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHERN LAKES. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF INDICATE THE TROPICAL SYSTEM MAY PHASE WITH A NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE AND DEVELOP A SUB 1000MB SURFACE REFLECTION IN THE
VICINITY OF THE GREAT LAKES. A DECENT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES MAY BE JUST WHAT WE NEED TO FINALLY SHUNT THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND USHER IN DRIER CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 118 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
TSTMS EXPECTED TO CONT TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF
CDFNT OVER WI/IA THIS AFTN. THIS FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SE
ACROSS NRN INDIANA TONIGHT... ACCOMPANIED BY AN AREA OF TSRA.
STRATUS/BR EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING
BEFORE CLEARING BY LATE MORNING. THUS... CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY MVFR UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR
INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.
MI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MIZ077>081.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JT
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
129 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
A COLD FRONT OVER WISCONSIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND IN
COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THE STORMS WILL
LIKELY CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL...POSSIBLY CAUSING FLASH FLOODING. ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA TUESDAY... CONFINING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA AND THEN LIFT BACK NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN BACK TO THE AREA. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1139 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY/TNGT WITH
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS INDICATING PWAT APCHG 2" AND UPWIND
PROPAGATION VECTOR ONLY 5-10KT ACROSS OUR AREA. A SLOW MOVG CDFNT
WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA TNGT. WIDESPREAD TSTMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTN AND
CONT AT LEAST INTO THIS EVE AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
PORTIONS OF THE CWA ALREADY HAVE SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS AND
HIGH RIVER/STREAM FLOWS... BUT EVEN AREAS WHICH HAVEN`T RECEIVED
THAT MUCH RAIN RECENTLY COULD BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING
THIS AFTN/EVE DUE TO EXPECTED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES FOR UP TO
A FEW HOURS. THUS HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA FOR THIS AFTN/EVE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
MIDLEVEL VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE DRAWN
ENE TODAY BY DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY LOW. GIVEN
TROPICAL AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE COURTESY OF INTRACTABLE SOUTHEAST
CONUS RIDGE...THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR YET ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONVECTION SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
TODAY DUE TO LEVEL OF SYNOPTIC SUPPORT AND RICH THETA-E ENVIRONMENT.
HAVE THEREFORE KEPT HIGH END LIKELY POPS. ONLY QUESTION IS EXACT
TIMING/EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES.
SUBTLE MIDLEVEL PERTURBATIONS RIPPLING THROUGH THE AREA IN A VERY
MOIST (SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN LOWER 70S) AND UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT WILL
LIKELY ALLOW CONVECTION TO BLOSSOM BY LATE MORNING...EVEN MORE SO
THAN CURRENTLY BEING SEEN. EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO THEN CHURN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR A SECONDARY UPTICK IN
COVERAGE DURING THE EVENING WITH MAIN FRONTAL PASSAGE. IF EARLY
INITIATION IS TRUE (AS EXPECTED)...THIS WILL PUT A DAMPER ON SEVERE
WEATHER CHANCES. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE A PATHETIC 5 G/KG WITH A
COMPLETELY MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ANY
APPRECIABLE LEVELS OF INSTABILITY WILL DEPEND ON SUSTAINED SURFACE
DIABATIC HEATING...A TALL ORDER GIVEN EXPECTED EARLY ONSET OF
CONVECTION AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. NEVERTHELESS...WOULDNT TOTALLY
LET GUARD DOWN BECAUSE THE WIND/SHEAR PROFILES ARE BETTER THAN
YESTERDAY THANKS TO APPROACHING TROUGH. 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES WILL BE
AROUND 30-35 KTS WITH 0-3KM VALUES 20-30 KTS BY THE EVENING. THIS
COULD SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS/LINES IF INSTABILITY
ENDS UP HIGHER THAN EXPECTED. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WOULD BE
THE PRIMARY CONCERN.
SET UP WITH RESPECT TO HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL REMAINS THE SAME AS IT
HAS BEEN FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. PW VALUES REMAIN AROUND 2
INCHES...SOLIDLY IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DEEP
WARM CLOUD LAYER WILL ALSO FAVOR EFFICIENT COLLISION/COALESCENSE
PROCESSES AND MBE VELOCITIES REMAIN LOW...FAVORING POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING/BACKBUILDING OF STORMS. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
IF/WHERE SUSTAINED CONVECTION SETS UP...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. BIGGEST
THREAT FOR FLOODING WILL PROBABLY BE IN THE EVENING WHEN MAIN FRONT
APPROACHES.
CONVECTION CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY WIND DOWN FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA...THOUGH PROBABLY WONT FULLY CLEAR OUR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES BEFORE 12Z.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
CONTD SIMILAR FCST WITH CONSISTENCY IN TACT IN ATTEMPT TO BETTER
DELINEATE CONVECTIVE OPPORTUNITIES AMID WELL BROADBRUSHED MULTI
MODEL BLEND. IN WAKE OF ANTICIPATED DY1 CONVECTION OVERTURNING ATMOS
AND SUBSEQUENT SFC BNDRY PUSH TOWARDS OHIO RIVER VALLEY HAVE MUTED
CHCS TUE/TUE NIGHT...RELEGATING LOW CHC POPS TO SRN CWA WITH NOTABLY
STRONG N/S LLVL THETA-E GRADIENT. NEXT STRONG MID TROP CIRCULATION
/PRESENTLY OFF NRN CAL COAST/ TO EJECT EWD INTO CENTRAL/HIGH PLAINS
TUE EVE AND WRN GRTLKS BY MIDDAY WED. INFLUX OF AT LEAST MID/ULVL
MSTR STREAMING FROM ANTICIPATED TROPICAL CYCLONE REMNANTS ALONG WITH
LEAD SHORTWAVE EJECTION SLATED FOR MIDWEEK. WITH SRN GRTLKS POISED
ON NRN PERIPHERY OF INCRSGLY RAPID DEEP LAYER SWRLY FLOW AS DAY
PROGRESSES...PRECIP EFFICIENCIES WILL BE ENHANCED FOR ADDNL HEAVY
RAFL POTNL...WELL COVERED IN ESF/HWO. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO RAMP
CONSIDERABLY...EXPECTED CAPE PROFILES TO BE RATHER TALL/THIN OWING
TO EXTRM MOISTURE AND NOT PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE FOR STRONG/
SEVERE...THOUGH MESOSCALE DETAILS YET TO BEAR OUT. FINAL LIFTOUT OF
LAGGED EXTRATROPICAL VORTEX INTO MID MS VLY FRI AFTN...LENDING CONTD
CONVECTIVE CHCS INTO WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 118 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
TSTMS EXPECTED TO CONT TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF
CDFNT OVER WI/IA THIS AFTN. THIS FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SE
ACROSS NRN INDIANA TONIGHT... ACCOMPANIED BY AN AREA OF TSRA.
STRATUS/BR EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING
BEFORE CLEARING BY LATE MORNING. THUS... CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY MVFR UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR INZ003>009-012>018-
020-022>027-032>034.
MI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MIZ077>081.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JT
SYNOPSIS...AGD/JT
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...JT
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1149 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE
AND A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS. THIS RAIN WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT WITH
A BRIEF BREAK EXPECTED ON TUESDAY BEFORE MORE RAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1139 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY/TNGT WITH
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS INDICATING PWAT APCHG 2" AND UPWIND
PROPAGATION VECTOR ONLY 5-10KT ACROSS OUR AREA. A SLOW MOVG CDFNT
WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA TNGT. WIDESPREAD TSTMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTN AND
CONT AT LEAST INTO THIS EVE AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
PORTIONS OF THE CWA ALREADY HAVE SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS AND
HIGH RIVER/STREAM FLOWS... BUT EVEN AREAS WHICH HAVEN`T RECEIVED
THAT MUCH RAIN RECENTLY COULD BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING
THIS AFTN/EVE DUE TO EXPECTED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES FOR UP TO
A FEW HOURS. THUS HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA FOR THIS AFTN/EVE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
MIDLEVEL VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE DRAWN
ENE TODAY BY DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY LOW. GIVEN
TROPICAL AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE COURTESY OF INTRACTABLE SOUTHEAST
CONUS RIDGE...THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR YET ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONVECTION SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
TODAY DUE TO LEVEL OF SYNOPTIC SUPPORT AND RICH THETA-E ENVIRONMENT.
HAVE THEREFORE KEPT HIGH END LIKELY POPS. ONLY QUESTION IS EXACT
TIMING/EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES.
SUBTLE MIDLEVEL PERTURBATIONS RIPPLING THROUGH THE AREA IN A VERY
MOIST (SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN LOWER 70S) AND UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT WILL
LIKELY ALLOW CONVECTION TO BLOSSOM BY LATE MORNING...EVEN MORE SO
THAN CURRENTLY BEING SEEN. EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO THEN CHURN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR A SECONDARY UPTICK IN
COVERAGE DURING THE EVENING WITH MAIN FRONTAL PASSAGE. IF EARLY
INITIATION IS TRUE (AS EXPECTED)...THIS WILL PUT A DAMPER ON SEVERE
WEATHER CHANCES. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE A PATHETIC 5 G/KG WITH A
COMPLETELY MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ANY
APPRECIABLE LEVELS OF INSTABILITY WILL DEPEND ON SUSTAINED SURFACE
DIABATIC HEATING...A TALL ORDER GIVEN EXPECTED EARLY ONSET OF
CONVECTION AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. NEVERTHELESS...WOULDNT TOTALLY
LET GUARD DOWN BECAUSE THE WIND/SHEAR PROFILES ARE BETTER THAN
YESTERDAY THANKS TO APPROACHING TROUGH. 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES WILL BE
AROUND 30-35 KTS WITH 0-3KM VALUES 20-30 KTS BY THE EVENING. THIS
COULD SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS/LINES IF INSTABILITY
ENDS UP HIGHER THAN EXPECTED. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WOULD BE
THE PRIMARY CONCERN.
SET UP WITH RESPECT TO HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL REMAINS THE SAME AS IT
HAS BEEN FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. PW VALUES REMAIN AROUND 2
INCHES...SOLIDLY IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DEEP
WARM CLOUD LAYER WILL ALSO FAVOR EFFICIENT COLLISION/COALESCENSE
PROCESSES AND MBE VELOCITIES REMAIN LOW...FAVORING POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING/BACKBUILDING OF STORMS. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
IF/WHERE SUSTAINED CONVECTION SETS UP...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. BIGGEST
THREAT FOR FLOODING WILL PROBABLY BE IN THE EVENING WHEN MAIN FRONT
APPROACHES.
CONVECTION CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY WIND DOWN FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA...THOUGH PROBABLY WONT FULLY CLEAR OUR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES BEFORE 12Z.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
CONTD SIMILAR FCST WITH CONSISTENCY IN TACT IN ATTEMPT TO BETTER
DELINEATE CONVECTIVE OPPORTUNITIES AMID WELL BROADBRUSHED MULTI
MODEL BLEND. IN WAKE OF ANTICIPATED DY1 CONVECTION OVERTURNING ATMOS
AND SUBSEQUENT SFC BNDRY PUSH TOWARDS OHIO RIVER VALLEY HAVE MUTED
CHCS TUE/TUE NIGHT...RELEGATING LOW CHC POPS TO SRN CWA WITH NOTABLY
STRONG N/S LLVL THETA-E GRADIENT. NEXT STRONG MID TROP CIRCULATION
/PRESENTLY OFF NRN CAL COAST/ TO EJECT EWD INTO CENTRAL/HIGH PLAINS
TUE EVE AND WRN GRTLKS BY MIDDAY WED. INFLUX OF AT LEAST MID/ULVL
MSTR STREAMING FROM ANTICIPATED TROPICAL CYCLONE REMNANTS ALONG WITH
LEAD SHORTWAVE EJECTION SLATED FOR MIDWEEK. WITH SRN GRTLKS POISED
ON NRN PERIPHERY OF INCRSGLY RAPID DEEP LAYER SWRLY FLOW AS DAY
PROGRESSES...PRECIP EFFICIENCIES WILL BE ENHANCED FOR ADDNL HEAVY
RAFL POTNL...WELL COVERED IN ESF/HWO. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO RAMP
CONSIDERABLY...EXPECTED CAPE PROFILES TO BE RATHER TALL/THIN OWING
TO EXTRM MOISTURE AND NOT PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE FOR STRONG/
SEVERE...THOUGH MESOSCALE DETAILS YET TO BEAR OUT. FINAL LIFTOUT OF
LAGGED EXTRATROPICAL VORTEX INTO MID MS VLY FRI AFTN...LENDING CONTD
CONVECTIVE CHCS INTO WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR INZ003>009-012>018-
020-022>027-032>034.
MI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MIZ077>081.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JT
SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...AGD
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
701 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
PLEASANT DAY IN STORE ACROSS MOST OF THE DVN CWA WITH AN EAST
WIND BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA...COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS.
PRECIPITABLE WATERS WERE LESS THAN AN INCH AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS
WERE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. HOWEVER...IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES DEWS WERE IN THE MID 60S AND PWATS A BIT OVER AN INCH.
FARTHER SOUTH THE REALLY HIGH PWATS WERE LURKING WITH OVER 2 INCHES
AS YOU GET DOWN TOWARDS ST. LOUIS. TO THE NORTH DEWPOINTS WERE
ONLY IN THE 40S OVER PORTIONS OF MN EASTWARD TO MI.
3 PM TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S IN THE CWA
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...OUR FAR
SOUTH WAS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A LARGER CLOUD SHIELD THAT WAS
COVERING THE MID MS VALLEY. THIS WAS AHEAD OF LANDFALLING TROPICAL
STORM BILL IN SE TX.
MOSAIC MIDWEST RADAR LOOPS INDICATE A LINE OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...FROM SE KS TO
CENTRAL MO AND INTO SOUTHERN IL. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE SHORT TERM.
TONIGHT...DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO OUR NORTHEAST CWA
ON EAST WINDS WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 40S FOR A TIME
OVERNIGHT. IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA DEWS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 60S.
OPERATIONAL MODELS INCLUDING THE HI-RES MESO HRRR INDICATE WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT DEVELOPING IN OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AS A LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES
A BIT. THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH FORCING AND INSTABILITY TO ALLOW
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SO I WILL HAVE
HIGH END CHANCE POPS. DRIER AIR FARTHER NORTH SHOULD DISSIPATE ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY TRYING TO WORK NORTHWARD. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH AT MOST LOCATIONS IN
OUR FAR SOUTH. OUR FAR SOUTH COULD GET LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. CLOUD
COVER WILL PROGRESS NORTHWARD AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALSO SHIFTS
A BIT NORTHWARD. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S
IN FAR NW IL TO THE MID 60S FAR SOUTH.
WEDNESDAY...WEAK LOW LEVEL JET VEERS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND
OHIO VALLEY WITH THE FORCING GRADUALLY PUSHING AWAY FROM THE DVN
CWA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DRY DAY IN OUR NORTHERN CWA WITH
CHANCE POPS IN OUR FAR SOUTH CLOSER TO THE NEARLY STALLED FRONT
WELL TO OUR SOUTH. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE AREA REMAINS
HIGHLY VULNERABLE TO CONTINUED RIVER FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING DUE
TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST WEEK. FROM MID TO LATE
WEEK...THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL
MOVING INTO THE TX GULF COAST...WHICH MODEL CONSENSUS NOW HAS
CURVING NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THEN TRACKING E-NE
ACROSS CENTRAL MO INTO SOUTHERN IL FRI AND SAT...WHICH WOULD SPARE
THE FORECAST AREA FROM HEAVY RAINFALL.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA WED NIGHT WILL WARRANT LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT
QPF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS THEN LAYS OUT A BOUNDARY FROM
NORTHERN IL NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND RETURNING
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REQUIRE KEEPING AT LEAST LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE PASSING LOW THROUGHOUT. OVER THE REST OF THE
AREA...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES IS SHOWN SENDING A
BACKDOOR COOL FRONT AND A SURGE OF E-NE WINDS THU NIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING IN LOWER HUMIDITY AND THEN LIMIT HIGHS TO THE MID 70S TO
AROUND 80 FRI...AFTER ANOTHER DAY OF LOWER 80S THU.
SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...ONCE THE WEAKENING REMNANTS OF BILL
PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A PREFRONTAL STRONG W-SW
SURGE OF VERY WARM...MOIST AIR OUT AHEAD FEEDING INTO THE REGION.
THIS WILL BRING BACK HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND THETAE ADVECTION
ALOFT THAT MAY FUEL AN OVERNIGHT MCS WITH THE PASSING FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT...WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST ARE PLACED.
THIS WILL ALSO BE THE NEXT GREATEST THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH
SHOULD FOLLOW SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY WEATHER OR LOW PRECIPITATION
EVENTS THAT WILL ALLOW SURFACE CONDITIONS TO DRY SOME AND RIVERS TO
BEGIN RECEDING. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL FEATURE A NEARLY ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WITH THE REGION ALONG THE EDGE OF THE STRONGER WESTERLIES
WITH WARM AIR BUILDING OVER THE PLAINS AND AVAILABLE GULF MOISTURE.
THIS RING OF FIRE TYPE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT PERIODIC MCS ACTIVITY
OVER...OR POSSIBLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK ALONG WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
MAINLY VFR LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD UP ACRS THE REGION
AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES, ALTHOUGH AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80
WILL EVENTUALLY HAVE MVFR CIGS FROM MIDNIGHT ON INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL TRY
TO PUSH UP OUT OF MO AND TOWARD THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AFTER 10
PM. BUT THEY WILL HAVE TO BATTLE EASTERLY LLVL DRIER FLOW AND MAY
HAVE TROUBLE GETTING MUCH PAST THE BRL AREA. BESIDES THE AREAS OF
RAIN...LOWER MVFR CIGS WILL SETTLE IN ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80
THROUGH LATE MORNING. SOME MVFR LEVEL FOG ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE
VCNTY OF BRL IN HIGHER SFC DPT POOL. THEN VEERING WINDS TO THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING ACRS
MN...WILL HELP LIFT ANY LINGERING CIGS BACK TO VFR LEVELS WED
AFTERNOON. ..12..
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1248 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN THE FOCUS TODAY
WITH THE MAIN THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO ISOLATED AREAS
OF FLASH FLOODING.
COLD FRONT HAS MEANDERED INTO NORTHWEST IOWA AND WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE STATE TODAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE
305-320 K SURFACE PERSISTS INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THERE IS A BROAD AND WEAK AREA OF FORCING
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND EXPECTING THE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 2 INCHES AND THE WARM LAYER CLOUD
DEPTHS REMAIN IN THE 3800 TO 4100 METERS. THE UPWIND PROPAGATION
VECTOR OVER CENTRAL IOWA REMAIN WEAK AND THUS THESE STORMS/SHOWERS
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE AND CONTINUE TO BE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS. HOWEVER...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS ISOLATED AND
SHORT-LIVED IN NATURE AND HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE WITH ISSUING A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH ATTM. THAT BEING SAID...THERE HAS ALREADY BEEN SOME
FLASH FLOODING ISSUES IN ANKENY DUE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
EXPECT THE VERY ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL TO REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY OVER CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
IOWA...MAINLY OVER URBAN AREAS. THE LATEST HRRR (15.07Z) HAS A
DECENT HANDLE ON OVERALL RADAR TRENDS...BUT THINK IT IS SLIGHTLY
TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN TODAY.
LEANED TOWARD A RUC/HRRR BLEND FOR POPS UNTIL 18Z AND THEN NAM12
THIS AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
BY THIS EVENING THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED FORCING WILL BE MOVING OUT
OF THE AREA. LINGERING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE PRIOR TO 06Z SOUTH WITH MOST OF THE AREA DONE WITH THE
RAINFALL. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NEAR THE IOWA MISSOURI
BORDER WHERE SOME RAIN MAY LINGER ON TUESDAY. FEEL THAT MOST OF THE
RAIN WILL BE SOUTH OF THE BORDER...BUT HAVE INCLUDED A SMALL AREA
ALONG THE BORDER AS FRONT MAY STALL AND DRIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH DURING
THE DAY. AS THE HIGH RETREATS EAST ON TUESDAY...RETURN FLOW OVER THE
ROCKIES WILL DIRECT ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
AND MN THROUGH 06Z. THIS WILL INDUCE A SFC LOW AND INCREASE THUNDER
CHANCES NORTHWEST TOWARD MORNING WITH SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE. THIS
NEXT SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION BY 12Z THURSDAY AS
REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL NOT VARY MUCH WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S TO
NEAR 70. BY FRIDAY A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM IS STILL ANTICIPATED TO
FORM OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH WESTERLIES ALOFT INCREASING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE AIRMASS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL STILL BE HAVE ABUNDANT AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER FORECAST OVER 2 INCHES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WARM
CLOUD DEPTHS WILL BE OVER 13KFT. WITH THE SYSTEM INCREASING WARM
AIR ADVECTION OVER THE AREA...LIKELY THAT HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EACH DAY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE A
STRONG COLD FRONT DROPS TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY BACK INTO
THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS...POTENTIAL FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF ACTIVE
WEATHER LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY. ONCE THE MAIN FRONT
PASSES...THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ON
SUNDAY...THOUGH THEY WILL BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS AS NORTHWEST WINDS AND DRIER AIR WORKS BACK INTO
THE STATE. MONDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...15/18Z
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
AREA OF SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH AS A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS THROUGH THE STATE. SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA THIS
AFTERNOON EMBEDDED IN THE AREA OF SHOWERS. MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH
POCKETS OF MVFR/IFR FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...THEN CONDITIONS SHOULD
GO VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS PRECIPITATION
MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. WIND TO BE PRIMARILY NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT...SHIFTING AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
MONITORING FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND POTENTIALLY A FEW
RIVERS GOING ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE TODAY OR TUESDAY. RAINFALL
RATES HAVE BEEN IMPRESSIVE...WITH STREET FLOODING REPORTED IN
ANKENY ABOUT 3 AM CDT THIS MORNING...WITH UP TO A HALF DOZEN
INTERSECTIONS CLOSED AND A FEW CARS STRANDED. SEVERAL ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF RAIN MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA YET THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HEADLINES...
THOUGH MORE LOCALIZED POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL SO FAR HAVE LIMITED
THE COVERAGE OF PROBLEM AREAS.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...BEERENDS
HYDROLOGY...REV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
316 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY:
NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WHILE A MID-UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTION OF
THE NORTHERN BRANCH WAVE...WILL CONTINUE PUSHING INTO SOUTHEASTERN
KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTHWEST
TUESDAY MORNING...THEN WASHING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. ANOMALOUSLY
RICH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIRMASS (~1.75 IN.) WILL PERSIST OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS AND WILL HAVE RELATIVELY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES IN
THOSE AREAS...WHERE WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS POSSIBLE UNDER
WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT. LATEST SPC HRRR VERSION PUSHES CURRENT
CONVECTION OUT OF SOUTHEAST KS BY MID EVENING...WITH A SIGNFICANT
LULL THEREAFTER. WOULD THINK EVEN IF THIS HAPPENS...THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SHEAR AXIS EMANATING FROM WEST TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD...COULD
IGNITE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ~4KM OR
GREATER AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS FAVOR LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES. IN ADDITION...SOUNDING PROFILES WOULD ALSO SUPPORT AN
ISOLATED WET MICROBURST OR TWO.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY:
WITH REGARD TO THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE HEADING
INTO SOUTH TEXAS LATE TONIGHT...THE GFS...ECMWF...AND NAM-WRF OFFER
VASTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. THIS IS NOT SURPRISING GIVEN THE
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY THAT THIS SYSTEM
COULD IMPACT FAR SOUTHEAST KS SOMETIME LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY IF THE GFS AND NAM ARE MORE CORRECT...ALTHOUGH THE NAM
APPEARS TOO FAST WITH THE NORTH-NORTHEAST MOVEMENT. THE ECMWF
INDICATES ANY IMPACTS TO SOUTHEAST KS WOULD NOT COME UNTIL FRIDAY-
FRIDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...OVERALL CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/TRACK OF THIS
DISTURBANCE IS LOW AT THIS JUNCTURE.
NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES BUT HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST DURING
THIS ENTIRE PERIOD.
JMC
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
THE REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ARE PROGGED TO PUSH WELL
EAST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND...WHILE A FAIRLY
STRONG/AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE ECMWF WAS STRONGER WITH THE
AMPLIFCATION...DRIVING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. IT HAS AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. THE GFS DID NOT AMPLIFY THE SHORTWAVE AS MUCH...AND AS A
RESULT BRINGS THE FRONT TO CENTRAL KS NEAR I-70 BEFORE STALLING THE
BOUNDARY. A COMPROMISE OF THESE SOLUTIONS WOULD BRING THE FRONT INTO
THE HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES RATHER WARM...ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE IN
THE FORECAST...COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED.
JMC
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THROUGH KCNU DURING THE NIGHT. HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION ARE AT KCNU...WITH RAIN SHOWERS FLIRTING WITH
KICT AT THE START OF THE FORECAST. VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED OUTSIDE
OF PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOIST/UPSLOPE AIRMASS NORTH
OF FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MORE LOW CLOUDS...PROBABLY
MVFR...PSBLY IFR...TOWARDS DAYBREAK AT MOST LOCATIONS. -HOWERTON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 68 83 69 86 / 40 50 20 20
HUTCHINSON 66 83 67 87 / 30 20 20 20
NEWTON 67 82 68 85 / 40 40 20 20
ELDORADO 68 82 69 85 / 50 60 30 40
WINFIELD-KWLD 69 83 70 85 / 50 60 40 40
RUSSELL 63 83 66 88 / 20 10 20 10
GREAT BEND 64 83 66 88 / 20 20 20 10
SALINA 66 83 68 87 / 20 20 20 20
MCPHERSON 66 83 68 87 / 30 20 20 20
COFFEYVILLE 70 82 71 82 / 70 70 60 60
CHANUTE 69 82 70 83 / 70 60 60 60
IOLA 69 82 69 83 / 70 60 50 60
PARSONS-KPPF 70 82 71 83 / 70 70 60 60
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
122 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1101 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
BASED ON DEVELOPING CU FIELD...WOULD ANTICIPATE THE FIRST
SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY TO DEVELOP OVER OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND
POSSIBLY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER...WITH
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. LIKE
YESTERDAY...COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPARSE. TEMPS WILL
APPROACH RECORDS WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES SIMILAR TO OR A
TAD WARMER THAN WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY. ALL IS HANDLED
WELL IN INHERITED FORECAST AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED BEYOND SOME
FRESHENING OF NEAR TERM GRIDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO PRIMARILY REMOVE THE PATCHY FOG FROM THE
GRIDS AND ZFP. ALSO...TWEAKED THE T AND TD ONES PER THE LATEST OBS
AND TRENDS. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS
ALONG WITH A FRESHENED SET OF ZONES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY WITH
LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH ALONG WITH A WEST TO EAST FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FOUND OVER NORTHERN OHIO. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS
NIGHT HAS BEEN CONFINED TO THE AN AREA JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT
ROUGHLY THROUGH CENTRAL OHIO WITH CELL MOVEMENT TO THE EAST. THE
CLOUDS ARE CO-LOCATED WITH THE CONVECTION LEAVING EAST KENTUCKY
MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS HAS HELPED A MILD RIDGE TO
VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT TO SET UP...RUNNING ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO
7 DEGREES...VARYING FROM THE MID 70S ON THE RIDGES TO THE UPPER
60S IN THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS. MEANWHILE...DEWPOINTS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND THE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. WOULD EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS THROUGH DAWN...BUT NOT MUCH HAS SHOWN UP YET IN THE OBS...
FOG CHANNEL...OR WEB CAMS.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS
THEY ALL KEEP A MODERATELY STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE NATION. FOR THE MOST PART...THIS WILL KEEP
CONVECTION TO A MINIMUM UNDER ITS AEGIS. HOWEVER...ENERGY WILL
TOP THIS RIDGE EARLY TUESDAY AND PUSH THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY BRINGING OUR BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY FOR
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL
AGREEMENT HAVE FOLLOWED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12
GUIDANCE MOST CLOSELY FOR WX DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE JUST ABOUT A REPEAT OF SUNDAY WITH
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY TODAY...THOUGH A
STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON...
GENERALLY NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED ON TUESDAY AS THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTERS PASSING BY TO THE NORTH...INDUCED BY THE EAST TO WEST
MOVING MID LEVEL ENERGY PACKETS...MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO BREACH THE
RIDGE AND SFC HIGH WITH OUTFLOW GENERATED STORMS...MAINLY ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES. THIS CONVECTION WILL TEMPER THE HEAT A BIT
WHERE IT OCCURS...BUT 90S WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE FOR PLACES THAT
MISS OUT...LIKE THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY...IN ALL PROBABILITY. THE
ORGANIZED NATURE OF THESE STORMS WOULD ALSO REPRESENT A THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS SHOULD A CLUSTER MAKE IT INTO THE CWA ON
TUESDAY. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS CONCERN IN THE FORTHCOMING HWO.
OTHERWISE...THERE SHOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT DROP OFF IN ANY ACTIVITY
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG TOWARD DAWN AN EXPECTED ELEMENT.
PER THE USUAL...T/TD/WINDS WERE STARTED OFF FROM THE SHORTBLEND
GUIDANCE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SUPERBLEND. DID
MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOWS TONIGHT FOR TERRAIN
DISTINCTIONS BUT ALSO RAISED HIGHS TODAY A NOTCH...SIMILAR TO
SUNDAY/S HIGHS. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO THE SURPRISINGLY
SIMILAR MAV AND MET MOS NUMBERS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTING OFF WITH A
LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN PARKED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS FINALLY BREAKING DOWN AND
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. AS THE RIDGE DOES THIS...A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS THE REGION. WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE ARE THEN PROGGED TO FORM AND PROPAGATE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE ONE MAJOR ELEMENT OF UNCERTAINTY
FOR THE LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK AND THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND...WILL BE
WHETHER OR NOT THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM COMBINES ITS ENERGY
AND MOISTURE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. IF THIS WERE TO
HAPPEN...AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE SUGGESTING...A WIDE
SWATH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE COULD SPREAD ACROSS THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SCENARIO WOULD MAKE FOR
A VERY WET END TO THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE THE
FORECAST ISSUE OF MOST INTEREST IN THE EXTENDED...AND WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY TO SEE HOW EVERYTHING PANS OUT BY WEEKS END. IN
THE MEANTIME...HOWEVER...HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT
SOME SORT OF BOUNDARY WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS OR VERY NEAR THE AREA
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
THAT BEING SAID...DECIDED TO GO WITH A GENERAL 30 TO 40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY AND NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BEING THE PEAK TIME FOR CONVECTION.
THE QUESTION MARK FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT A
SLUG OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS PRESENT TO FUEL FURTHER SHOWER AND
STORM ACTIVITY. IF THIS OCCURS...WE COULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND SUNDAY. AS
IT STANDS...THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH
THE FRONT TO SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY THIS WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK AS
WELL. DAILY HIGHS OVERALL SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME LOCATIONS ON WEDNESDAY COULD EVEN TOP 90
DEGREES AS THE RIDGE FIRST BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S ON AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP...FAVORING
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES INCLUDING KSYM. THESE STORMS WILL REMAIN
WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE...BUT BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW
VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WHERE THEY OCCUR. AS HAS
BEEN THE PATTERN LATELY...THESE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING ONLY TO REFIRE BY MIDDAY TUESDAY AGAIN FAVORING
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. ASIDE FROM THE STORMS...SOME PATCHY VALLEY
FOG WILL AGAIN DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AND IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVE SOME RAIN.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ABE
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...ABE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1101 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1101 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
BASED ON DEVELOPING CU FIELD...WOULD ANTICIPATE THE FIRST
SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY TO DEVELOP OVER OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND
POSSIBLY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER...WITH
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ELSEHWERE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. LIKE
YESTERDAY...COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPARSE. TEMPS WILL
APPROACH RECORDS WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES SIMILAR TO OR A
TAD WARMER THAN WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY. ALL IS HANDLED
WELL IN INHERITED FORECAST AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED BEYOND SOME
FRESHENING OF NEAR TERM GRIDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO PRIMARILY REMOVE THE PATCHY FOG FROM THE
GRIDS AND ZFP. ALSO...TWEAKED THE T AND TD ONES PER THE LATEST OBS
AND TRENDS. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS
ALONG WITH A FRESHENED SET OF ZONES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY WITH
LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH ALONG WITH A WEST TO EAST FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FOUND OVER NORTHERN OHIO. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS
NIGHT HAS BEEN CONFINED TO THE AN AREA JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT
ROUGHLY THROUGH CENTRAL OHIO WITH CELL MOVEMENT TO THE EAST. THE
CLOUDS ARE CO-LOCATED WITH THE CONVECTION LEAVING EAST KENTUCKY
MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS HAS HELPED A MILD RIDGE TO
VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT TO SET UP...RUNNING ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO
7 DEGREES...VARYING FROM THE MID 70S ON THE RIDGES TO THE UPPER
60S IN THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS. MEANWHILE...DEWPOINTS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND THE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. WOULD EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS THROUGH DAWN...BUT NOT MUCH HAS SHOWN UP YET IN THE OBS...
FOG CHANNEL...OR WEB CAMS.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS
THEY ALL KEEP A MODERATELY STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE NATION. FOR THE MOST PART...THIS WILL KEEP
CONVECTION TO A MINIMUM UNDER ITS AEGIS. HOWEVER...ENERGY WILL
TOP THIS RIDGE EARLY TUESDAY AND PUSH THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY BRINGING OUR BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY FOR
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL
AGREEMENT HAVE FOLLOWED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12
GUIDANCE MOST CLOSELY FOR WX DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE JUST ABOUT A REPEAT OF SUNDAY WITH
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY TODAY...THOUGH A
STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON...
GENERALLY NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED ON TUESDAY AS THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTERS PASSING BY TO THE NORTH...INDUCED BY THE EAST TO WEST
MOVING MID LEVEL ENERGY PACKETS...MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO BREACH THE
RIDGE AND SFC HIGH WITH OUTFLOW GENERATED STORMS...MAINLY ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES. THIS CONVECTION WILL TEMPER THE HEAT A BIT
WHERE IT OCCURS...BUT 90S WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE FOR PLACES THAT
MISS OUT...LIKE THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY...IN ALL PROBABILITY. THE
ORGANIZED NATURE OF THESE STORMS WOULD ALSO REPRESENT A THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS SHOULD A CLUSTER MAKE IT INTO THE CWA ON
TUESDAY. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS CONCERN IN THE FORTHCOMING HWO.
OTHERWISE...THERE SHOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT DROP OFF IN ANY ACTIVITY
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG TOWARD DAWN AN EXPECTED ELEMENT.
PER THE USUAL...T/TD/WINDS WERE STARTED OFF FROM THE SHORTBLEND
GUIDANCE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SUPERBLEND. DID
MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOWS TONIGHT FOR TERRAIN
DISTINCTIONS BUT ALSO RAISED HIGHS TODAY A NOTCH...SIMILAR TO
SUNDAY/S HIGHS. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO THE SURPRISINGLY
SIMILAR MAV AND MET MOS NUMBERS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTING OFF WITH A
LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN PARKED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS FINALLY BREAKING DOWN AND
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. AS THE RIDGE DOES THIS...A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS THE REGION. WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE ARE THEN PROGGED TO FORM AND PROPAGATE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE ONE MAJOR ELEMENT OF UNCERTAINTY
FOR THE LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK AND THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND...WILL BE
WHETHER OR NOT THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM COMBINES ITS ENERGY
AND MOISTURE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. IF THIS WERE TO
HAPPEN...AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE SUGGESTING...A WIDE
SWATH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE COULD SPREAD ACROSS THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SCENARIO WOULD MAKE FOR
A VERY WET END TO THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE THE
FORECAST ISSUE OF MOST INTEREST IN THE EXTENDED...AND WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY TO SEE HOW EVERYTHING PANS OUT BY WEEKS END. IN
THE MEANTIME...HOWEVER...HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT
SOME SORT OF BOUNDARY WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS OR VERY NEAR THE AREA
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
THAT BEING SAID...DECIDED TO GO WITH A GENERAL 30 TO 40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY AND NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BEING THE PEAK TIME FOR CONVECTION.
THE QUESTION MARK FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT A
SLUG OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS PRESENT TO FUEL FURTHER SHOWER AND
STORM ACTIVITY. IF THIS OCCURS...WE COULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND SUNDAY. AS
IT STANDS...THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH
THE FRONT TO SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY THIS WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK AS
WELL. DAILY HIGHS OVERALL SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME LOCATIONS ON WEDNESDAY COULD EVEN TOP 90
DEGREES AS THE RIDGE FIRST BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S ON AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 800 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
SOME SCT TO BKN LOW VFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY AS A
THICKER CLOUD DECK MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH...MAINLY ACROSS KSYM
AND POSSIBLY DOWN TO KSJS. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT SYM THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE INCLUDED A VCTS IN ITS
TAF. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE THE RULE INTO MID MORNING
BEFORE PICKING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS LATER IN THE
DAY AT MOST SPOTS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS RETURN TONIGHT WITH
ANY FOG AGAIN CONTAINED IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS AWAY FOR ANY TAF
SITES.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ABE
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
755 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO PRIMARILY REMOVE THE PATCHY FOG FROM THE
GRIDS AND ZFP. ALSO...TWEAKED THE T AND TD ONES PER THE LATEST OBS
AND TRENDS. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS
ALONG WITH A FRESHENED SET OF ZONES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY WITH
LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH ALONG WITH A WEST TO EAST FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FOUND OVER NORTHERN OHIO. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS
NIGHT HAS BEEN CONFINED TO THE AN AREA JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT
ROUGHLY THROUGH CENTRAL OHIO WITH CELL MOVEMENT TO THE EAST. THE
CLOUDS ARE CO-LOCATED WITH THE CONVECTION LEAVING EAST KENTUCKY
MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS HAS HELPED A MILD RIDGE TO
VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT TO SET UP...RUNNING ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO
7 DEGREES...VARYING FROM THE MID 70S ON THE RIDGES TO THE UPPER
60S IN THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS. MEANWHILE...DEWPOINTS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND THE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. WOULD EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS THROUGH DAWN...BUT NOT MUCH HAS SHOWN UP YET IN THE OBS...
FOG CHANNEL...OR WEB CAMS.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS
THEY ALL KEEP A MODERATELY STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE NATION. FOR THE MOST PART...THIS WILL KEEP
CONVECTION TO A MINIMUM UNDER ITS AEGIS. HOWEVER...ENERGY WILL
TOP THIS RIDGE EARLY TUESDAY AND PUSH THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY BRINGING OUR BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY FOR
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL
AGREEMENT HAVE FOLLOWED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12
GUIDANCE MOST CLOSELY FOR WX DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE JUST ABOUT A REPEAT OF SUNDAY WITH
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY TODAY...THOUGH A
STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON...
GENERALLY NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED ON TUESDAY AS THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTERS PASSING BY TO THE NORTH...INDUCED BY THE EAST TO WEST
MOVING MID LEVEL ENERGY PACKETS...MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO BREACH THE
RIDGE AND SFC HIGH WITH OUTFLOW GENERATED STORMS...MAINLY ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES. THIS CONVECTION WILL TEMPER THE HEAT A BIT
WHERE IT OCCURS...BUT 90S WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE FOR PLACES THAT
MISS OUT...LIKE THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY...IN ALL PROBABILITY. THE
ORGANIZED NATURE OF THESE STORMS WOULD ALSO REPRESENT A THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS SHOULD A CLUSTER MAKE IT INTO THE CWA ON
TUESDAY. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS CONCERN IN THE FORTHCOMING HWO.
OTHERWISE...THERE SHOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT DROP OFF IN ANY ACTIVITY
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG TOWARD DAWN AN EXPECTED ELEMENT.
PER THE USUAL...T/TD/WINDS WERE STARTED OFF FROM THE SHORTBLEND
GUIDANCE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SUPERBLEND. DID
MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOWS TONIGHT FOR TERRAIN
DISTINCTIONS BUT ALSO RAISED HIGHS TODAY A NOTCH...SIMILAR TO
SUNDAY/S HIGHS. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO THE SURPRISINGLY
SIMILAR MAV AND MET MOS NUMBERS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTING OFF WITH A
LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN PARKED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS FINALLY BREAKING DOWN AND
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. AS THE RIDGE DOES THIS...A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS THE REGION. WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE ARE THEN PROGGED TO FORM AND PROPAGATE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE ONE MAJOR ELEMENT OF UNCERTAINTY
FOR THE LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK AND THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND...WILL BE
WHETHER OR NOT THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM COMBINES ITS ENERGY
AND MOISTURE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. IF THIS WERE TO
HAPPEN...AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE SUGGESTING...A WIDE
SWATH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE COULD SPREAD ACROSS THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SCENARIO WOULD MAKE FOR
A VERY WET END TO THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE THE
FORECAST ISSUE OF MOST INTEREST IN THE EXTENDED...AND WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY TO SEE HOW EVERYTHING PANS OUT BY WEEKS END. IN
THE MEANTIME...HOWEVER...HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT
SOME SORT OF BOUNDARY WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS OR VERY NEAR THE AREA
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
THAT BEING SAID...DECIDED TO GO WITH A GENERAL 30 TO 40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY AND NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BEING THE PEAK TIME FOR CONVECTION.
THE QUESTION MARK FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT A
SLUG OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS PRESENT TO FUEL FURTHER SHOWER AND
STORM ACTIVITY. IF THIS OCCURS...WE COULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND SUNDAY. AS
IT STANDS...THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH
THE FRONT TO SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY THIS WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK AS
WELL. DAILY HIGHS OVERALL SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME LOCATIONS ON WEDNESDAY COULD EVEN TOP 90
DEGREES AS THE RIDGE FIRST BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S ON AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 800 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
SOME SCT TO BKN LOW VFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY AS A
THICKER CLOUD DECK MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH...MAINLY ACROSS KSYM
AND POSSIBLY DOWN TO KSJS. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT SYM THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE INCLUDED A VCTS IN ITS
TAF. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE THE RULE INTO MID MORNING
BEFORE PICKING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS LATER IN THE
DAY AT MOST SPOTS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS RETURN TONIGHT WITH
ANY FOG AGAIN CONTAINED IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS AWAY FOR ANY TAF
SITES.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
350 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY WITH
LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH ALONG WITH A WEST TO EAST FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FOUND OVER NORTHERN OHIO. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS
NIGHT HAS BEEN CONFINED TO THE AN AREA JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT
ROUGHLY THROUGH CENTRAL OHIO WITH CELL MOVEMENT TO THE EAST. THE
CLOUDS ARE CO-LOCATED WITH THE CONVECTION LEAVING EAST KENTUCKY
MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS HAS HELPED A MILD RIDGE TO
VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT TO SET UP...RUNNING ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO
7 DEGREES...VARYING FROM THE MID 70S ON THE RIDGES TO THE UPPER
60S IN THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS. MEANWHILE...DEWPOINTS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND THE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. WOULD EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS THROUGH DAWN...BUT NOT MUCH HAS SHOWN UP YET IN THE OBS...
FOG CHANNEL...OR WEB CAMS.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS
THEY ALL KEEP A MODERATELY STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE NATION. FOR THE MOST PART...THIS WILL KEEP
CONVECTION TO A MINIMUM UNDER ITS AEGIS. HOWEVER...ENERGY WILL
TOP THIS RIDGE EARLY TUESDAY AND PUSH THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY BRINGING OUR BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY FOR
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL
AGREEMENT HAVE FOLLOWED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12
GUIDANCE MOST CLOSELY FOR WX DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE JUST ABOUT A REPEAT OF SUNDAY WITH
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY TODAY...THOUGH A
STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON...
GENERALLY NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED ON TUESDAY AS THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTERS PASSING BY TO THE NORTH...INDUCED BY THE EAST TO WEST
MOVING MID LEVEL ENERGY PACKETS...MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO BREACH THE
RIDGE AND SFC HIGH WITH OUTFLOW GENERATED STORMS...MAINLY ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES. THIS CONVECTION WILL TEMPER THE HEAT A BIT
WHERE IT OCCURS...BUT 90S WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE FOR PLACES THAT
MISS OUT...LIKE THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY...IN ALL PROBABILITY. THE
ORGANIZED NATURE OF THESE STORMS WOULD ALSO REPRESENT A THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS SHOULD A CLUSTER MAKE IT INTO THE CWA ON
TUESDAY. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS CONCERN IN THE FORTHCOMING HWO.
OTHERWISE...THERE SHOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT DROP OFF IN ANY ACTIVITY
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG TOWARD DAWN AN EXPECTED ELEMENT.
PER THE USUAL...T/TD/WINDS WERE STARTED OFF FROM THE SHORTBLEND
GUIDANCE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SUPERBLEND. DID
MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOWS TONIGHT FOR TERRAIN
DISTINCTIONS BUT ALSO RAISED HIGHS TODAY A NOTCH...SIMILAR TO
SUNDAY/S HIGHS. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO THE SURPRISINGLY
SIMILAR MAV AND MET MOS NUMBERS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTING OFF WITH A
LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN PARKED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS FINALLY BREAKING DOWN AND
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. AS THE RIDGE DOES THIS...A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS THE REGION. WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE ARE THEN PROGGED TO FORM AND PROPAGATE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE ONE MAJOR ELEMENT OF UNCERTAINTY
FOR THE LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK AND THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND...WILL BE
WHETHER OR NOT THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM COMBINES ITS ENERGY
AND MOISTURE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. IF THIS WERE TO
HAPPEN...AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE SUGGESTING...A WIDE
SWATH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE COULD SPREAD ACROSS THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SCENARIO WOULD MAKE FOR
A VERY WET END TO THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE THE
FORECAST ISSUE OF MOST INTEREST IN THE EXTENDED...AND WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY TO SEE HOW EVERYTHING PANS OUT BY WEEKS END. IN
THE MEANTIME...HOWEVER...HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT
SOME SORT OF BOUNDARY WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS OR VERY NEAR THE AREA
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
THAT BEING SAID...DECIDED TO GO WITH A GENERAL 30 TO 40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY AND NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BEING THE PEAK TIME FOR CONVECTION.
THE QUESTION MARK FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT A
SLUG OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS PRESENT TO FUEL FURTHER SHOWER AND
STORM ACTIVITY. IF THIS OCCURS...WE COULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND SUNDAY. AS
IT STANDS...THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH
THE FRONT TO SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY THIS WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK AS
WELL. DAILY HIGHS OVERALL SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME LOCATIONS ON WEDNESDAY COULD EVEN TOP 90
DEGREES AS THE RIDGE FIRST BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S ON AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
WHILE FOG IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS NIGHT...IT SHOULD BE CONTAINED IN
THE VALLEYS WITH TAF SITES REMAINING UNAFFECTED. SOME SCT TO BKN
BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS
A THICKER CLOUD DECK MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH...MAINLY ACROSS KSYM
AND POSSIBLY DOWN TO KSJS. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT SYM MONDAY AFTERNOON SO HAVE INCLUDED A VCTS
IN ITS TAF FOR THIS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE THE RULE
INTO MID MORNING MONDAY BEFORE PICKING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 5
TO 10 KTS LATER IN THE DAY AT MOST SPOTS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
215 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
THE SHOWERS OVER NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY HAVE DIED OUT WITH THE
ONLY SUSTAINABLE ONES ARE FOUND WELL NORTH OF THE STATE IN CENTRAL
OHIO ALONG A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12
KEEPS THINGS QUIET THROUGH THE CWA INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
ACCORDINGLY...HAVE DROPPED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. ALSO...TWEAKED T/TD/SKY GRIDS PER THE LATEST SHORTBLEND
GUIDANCE...OBS...AND TRENDS. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO
THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1043 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
SHOWERS HAVE FINALLY DIMINISHED ACROSS THE JKL CWA.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST SEEMS TO BE VERY WELL ON TRACK. INCREASED
CLOUDS SLIGHTLY THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE AREA OF
CLOUDS UPSTREAM THAT WILL LIKELY MAKE IT INTO THE REGION OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...THICKENING AS WE HEAD INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR TEMPS...DEW
POINTS...AND WINDS ONCE AGAIN TO MAKE SURE THE NEAR TERM GRIDS
WELL REFLECT THE ONGOING CONDITIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
INCOMING CLOUD COVER VS. FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 741 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
A FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL GOING STRONG ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
KY...NEAR THE TN AND VIRGINIA BORDER. AS SUCH...ENDED UP
INCREASING POPS BACK UP TO SLIGHT CHANCES IN THIS AREA FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS UNTIL LOSS OF SUNLIGHT ALLOWS THE LINGERING
INSTABILITY TO WEAKEN AND THESE SHOWERS DIMINISH. ALSO LOADED IN
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS
TO MAKE SURE THE NEAR TERM GRIDS WELL REFLECT THE ONGOING
CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF STOUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. ONE OR
TWO OF THESE MAY GROW ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHTNING SO WILL
MAINTAIN A MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. NOTHING REALLY CHANGES FOR TOMORROW SO A REPEAT OF
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
EXPECTED...WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE EARLIER DEVELOPMENT AND A LITTLE
BETTER COVERAGE OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WHICH WILL BE FURTHER
AWAY FROM THE CORE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN REACHING AROUND 90 MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 90S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
A RATHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INITIALLY OVER THE CAROLINAS ON
MONDAY WILL SLOWLY BECOME LESS DOMINANT FOR OUR AREA THROUGH THE
WEEK AS IT BECOMES FLATTER. A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA
EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS WILL LEAD TO SOME INITIAL
FLATTENING OF THIS RIDGE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...A POSSIBLE
TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING THE WESTERN GULF COAST EARLY IN
THE PERIOD. MODELS ALSO VARY EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVES WITHIN RATHER ZONAL FLOW. THIS TROUGH PASSING BY THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW THE FRONTAL ZONE TO
DROP A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND APPROACH THE OHIO RIVER EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...BUT LIKELY STILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. IN FACT...MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE A MORE OR LESS ZONAL PATTERN
WITH RIDGING CENTERED ALONG OR OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST AND
SOUTHWEST OF CALIFORNIA. IN BETWEEN...A TROPICAL FEED OF MOISTURE
AND WEAK TROUGH AND THE REMNANTS OF THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM
COULD EVENTUALLY WORK INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE THE SFC FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD ALSO
REMAIN GENERALLY NORTH OF EASTERN KY...ALTHOUGH WEAK DISTURBANCES IN
THE FLOW WILL LEAD TO SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT AND NORTH AND SOUTH
OSCILLATIONS OVER TIME.
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
REGARDING HOW FAST THE UPPER TROUGH AND OR ANY TROPICAL REMNANTS
MAY APPROACH THE REGION. THE PERIOD SHOULD GENERALLY FEATURE WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH A PERSISTENT THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH CHANCES MAY PEAK DURING EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ALSO...CHANCES APPEAR HIGHER WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSING BY
EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH ANOTHER PEAK IF THE REMNANTS OF THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM OR SECOND SHORTWAVE WORK AROUND THE RIDGE INTO THE
OH VALLEY REGION. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND TRACK OF ANY OF THESE IS
LOW...AND THE 12Z ECMWF THAT STRENGTHENS THE LOW AFTER IT MOVES
INLAND DOES NOT SEEM BELIEVABLE. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
SHOULD AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT A COUPLE OF DEGREES
COOLER THAN THIS WITH THE MOIST AIRMASS KEEPING MIN T NO LOWER THAN
THE MID 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
WHILE FOG IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS NIGHT...IT SHOULD BE CONTAINED IN
THE VALLEYS WITH TAF SITES REMAINING UNAFFECTED. SOME SCT TO BKN
BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS
A THICKER CLOUD DECK MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH...MAINLY ACROSS KSYM
AND POSSIBLY DOWN TO KSJS. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT SYM MONDAY AFTERNOON SO HAVE INCLUDED A VCTS
IN ITS TAF FOR THIS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE THE RULE
INTO MID MORNING MONDAY BEFORE PICKING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 5
TO 10 KTS LATER IN THE DAY AT MOST SPOTS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
635 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 634 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
WE ARE CURRENTLY WATCHING A BAND OF CONVECTION STRETCHING WEST
FROM CHICAGO. THIS IS PARALLEL TO MODERATE WESTERLY EFFECTIVE SHEAR
AROUND 35 KNOTS SEEN WITH AREA PROFILERS AND SPC MESOANALYSIS.
12Z DTX SOUNDING INDICATED VERY ANOMALOUS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 1.46 INCHES /GREATER THAN 90TH PERCENTILE/. THIS HIGH
RAINFALL EFFICIENCY ENVIRONMENT HAS BEEN SUPPORTED BY SEVERAL
REPORTS OF RAINFALL RATES EXCEEDING 2 INCHES PER HOUR THIS
AFTERNOON.
GREATEST PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON FELL JUST SOUTH OF I-94 IN
VAN BUREN...KALAMAZOO AND PARTS OF CALHOUN COUNTIES. RECENT RUNS
OF THE HRRR SHOW CHICAGO PRECIPITATION MOVING EAST INTO THIS
GENERAL AREA WITH SOME DISCRETE CELLS FORMING AHEAD OF THE MAIN
AREA. SOME CLEARING OVER INDIANA NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE COULD
ALLOW EXTRA EVENING INSOLATION TO ADD TO THE 1000+ J/KG MUCAPE
ALREADY BEING ESTIMATED OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MI PER SPC
MESOANALYSIS GRAPHICS. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING COULD ASSIST IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE DISCRETE CELLS.
WITH AN OVERLAP OF 35+ KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR...MUCAPE > 1000 J/KG...
DEWPOINTS IN 70S WITH ATTENDANT LOW DEPRESSIONS...AND UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION...THERE
REMAINS A NON-ZERO THREAT FOR TORNADOES EARLY TONIGHT.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
THE AREA WILL SEE A WET PERIOD THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS
TONIGHT AS A VERY MOIST AND HUMID AIR MASS COLLIDES WITH A COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY
AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH SOME SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS. A BIGGER THREAT IS FLOODING WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ON TOP OF
SATURATED SOILS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.
THE AREA WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR
TUESDAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL THEN BECOME POSSIBLE
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRIES TO APPROACH THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
OUR MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS ON THE PERIOD THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING THROUGH AND THE FLOOD AND
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THAT EXISTS. WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO DEAL WITH
PCPN CHCS COMING BACK IN FOR WED AND WED NIGHT.
WE ARE SEEING THE SECOND LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS THAT
WAS NEAR THE MS RIVER EARLIER NOW MOVING INTO THE CWFA. THE SEVERE
THREAT HAS LESSENED A LITTLE BIT ACROSS THE CWFA AS INSTABILITY HAS
BEEN TEMPERED WITH THE CLOUDS AND PCPN THAT HAS MOVED THROUGH. THAT
SAID...THERE IS STILL OVER 1000 J/KG OF CAPE AVAILABLE AND EFFECTIVE
WIND SHEAR IS 30-40 KNOTS...SO SOME MARGINAL LARGE HAIL AND WIND IS
STILL POSSIBLE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE FLOODING POTENTIAL DOWN SOUTH CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.
WITH UP TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN AT SOME LOCATIONS OVER THE WEEKEND...AND
LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS ALREADY OBSERVED TODAY IN SOME TRAINING OF
STORMS CONTINUES TO JUSTIFY THE THREAT. PWATS UP AROUND 2 INCHES...A
DEEP AND MOIST COLUMN WITH PROVIDE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES AT
TIMES.
WE WILL SEE ONE LAST WAVE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE THROUGH THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. A DECENT COLD FRONT NOW
MOVING THROUGH WI IS ACTING ON THE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS
IN PLACE ALONG WITH LARGER SCALE LIFT VIA THE RRQ OF THE UPPER JET
NORTH OF THE AREA. WE EXPECT THAT THIS PCPN WILL MOVE OUT AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS MOVES IN.
TUESDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A COOLER AND DRIER DAY AS WE WILL SEE
THE WARM AND MOIST AXIS SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING WHAT SHOULD BE A NICE DAY ACROSS THE
AREA.
THE FRONT THAT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL THEN TRY TO MOVE BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AS ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE TRIES TO LIFT OUT
INTO THE AREA. THE GENERAL TREND OF THE MODELS HAS BEEN TO SUPPRESS
THE FRONT SOUTH TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER AND KEEP THE JUICY AIR MASS
DOWN THERE WITH THE UPPER JET A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. WE STILL COULD
SEE SOME PCPN AT THAT TIME AS WAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER
FLOW UP HERE. THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT JUST LOOKS A BIT LESS AT THIS
TIME FOR WED NIGHT AND THU.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
EXTENDED FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST TRANSITION FROM SEMI-ZONAL FLOW MID
WEEK TO NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR MOST OF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE THE
STRONGER SYSTEM APPROACHES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
THE REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO COULD IMPACT WEST MICHIGAN. MODELS AT THIS TIME ABSORB
THE SYSTEM INTO THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BEFORE IT
REACHES THE WOLVERINE STATE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS TAF SITES IN
WESTERN MICHIGAN LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. HRRR AND RAP ARE IN AGREEMENT
SHOWING THIS ACTIVITY ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BY
SUNRISE TUESDAY.
CONCERNED ABOUT FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL BE OPTIMISTIC
AND RELY ON DRIER AIRMASS TO WIN OUT OVER SURFACE MOISTURE.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
WE HAVE LEFT THE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS IS FOR THE TIME BEING.
MOST WEB CAMS ALONG THE COAST SHOW QUITE A BIT OF FOG STILL HOLDING
IN. SOUTH HAVEN HAS SEEN SOME IMPROVEMENT AT THE COAST...HOWEVER WE
WILL LEAVE IT FOR THE TIME BEING WITH PLENTY OF FOG ELSEWHERE. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT AS STORMS MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING THAT THE FOG MAY
MIX OUT SOME. WE WILL MONITOR THE SITUATION FOR A POSSIBLE EXTENSION
OF THE HEADLINE.
OTHERWISE...WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY WIND/WAVE HEADLINES THROUGH
MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH WINDS GENERALLY STAYING BELOW 20
KNOTS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
BIGGEST RISK OF AREAL FLOODING TODAY IS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94...
WHERE CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
PUT DOWN OVER 2 INCHES IN SPOTS. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF MODERATE
STRATIFORM TO HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAIN ARE EXPECTED THERE. ELSEWHERE...
SCATTERED HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL POP UP AND
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME. SOILS ARE
BECOMING INCREASINGLY SATURATED AFTER THE PAST FEW DAYS OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN... SO LESS RAIN WILL CAUSE GREATER IMPACTS THAN
USUAL.
MULTIPLE RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT AND MORE MAY BE ON THE
WAY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS RIVER LEVELS AT SOME SITES CONTINUE TO
CLIMB. SMALLER RIVERS THAT HAVE QUICKER RESPONSE... SUCH AS THE
LOOKING GLASS AND SYCAMORE CREEK... ARE ON THEIR WAY BACK DOWN.. BUT
ARE STILL AT THE MERCY OF ANY LOCAL HEAVY RAIN THAT FALLS TONIGHT.
DEEP TROPICAL AIR MASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2
INCHES IS IN PLACE FROM SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THESE PW VALUES ARE AT LEAST EAST 90TH PERCENTILE TO NEAR
RECORD FOR MID JUNE. AS A RESULT... RAINFALL PRODUCTION IN SHOWERS
AND STORMS HAS BEEN VERY EFFICIENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
ANOTHER WAVE ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE THE AREA WITH ANOTHER
POTENTIAL SHOT OF HEAVY RAINFALL... WITH THE MOST LIKELY TARGET
BEING SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91L IN
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL HEAD OUR WAY LATER IN THE WEEK. HOW
MUCH OF THIS ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS CONVERTED TO PRECIPITATION
REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN... THOUGH SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AGAIN STANDS
THE GREATEST RISK FOR MORE HEAVY RAIN.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MIZ059-064>067-
071>074.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...TJT
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...MWS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...NJJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
THE AREA WILL SEE A WET PERIOD THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS
TONIGHT AS A VERY MOIST AND HUMID AIR MASS COLLIDES WITH A COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY
AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH SOME SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS. A BIGGER THREAT IS FLOODING WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ON TOP OF
SATURATED SOILS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.
THE AREA WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR
TUESDAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL THEN BECOME POSSIBLE
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRIES TO APPROACH THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
OUR MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS ON THE PERIOD THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING THROUGH AND THE FLOOD AND
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THAT EXISTS. WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO DEAL WITH
PCPN CHCS COMING BACK IN FOR WED AND WED NIGHT.
WE ARE SEEING THE SECOND LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS THAT
WAS NEAR THE MS RIVER EARLIER NOW MOVING INTO THE CWFA. THE SEVERE
THREAT HAS LESSENED A LITTLE BIT ACROSS THE CWFA AS INSTABILITY HAS
BEEN TEMPERED WITH THE CLOUDS AND PCPN THAT HAS MOVED THROUGH. THAT
SAID...THERE IS STILL OVER 1000 J/KG OF CAPE AVAILABLE AND EFFECTIVE
WIND SHEAR IS 30-40 KNOTS...SO SOME MARGINAL LARGE HAIL AND WIND IS
STILL POSSIBLE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE FLOODING POTENTIAL DOWN SOUTH CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.
WITH UP TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN AT SOME LOCATIONS OVER THE WEEKEND...AND
LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS ALREADY OBSERVED TODAY IN SOME TRAINING OF
STORMS CONTINUES TO JUSTIFY THE THREAT. PWATS UP AROUND 2 INCHES...A
DEEP AND MOIST COLUMN WITH PROVIDE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES AT
TIMES.
WE WILL SEE ONE LAST WAVE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE THROUGH THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. A DECENT COLD FRONT NOW
MOVING THROUGH WI IS ACTING ON THE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS
IN PLACE ALONG WITH LARGER SCALE LIFT VIA THE RRQ OF THE UPPER JET
NORTH OF THE AREA. WE EXPECT THAT THIS PCPN WILL MOVE OUT AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS MOVES IN.
TUESDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A COOLER AND DRIER DAY AS WE WILL SEE
THE WARM AND MOIST AXIS SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING WHAT SHOULD BE A NICE DAY ACROSS THE
AREA.
THE FRONT THAT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL THEN TRY TO MOVE BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AS ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE TRIES TO LIFT OUT
INTO THE AREA. THE GENERAL TREND OF THE MODELS HAS BEEN TO SUPPRESS
THE FRONT SOUTH TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER AND KEEP THE JUICY AIR MASS
DOWN THERE WITH THE UPPER JET A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. WE STILL COULD
SEE SOME PCPN AT THAT TIME AS WAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER
FLOW UP HERE. THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT JUST LOOKS A BIT LESS AT THIS
TIME FOR WED NIGHT AND THU.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
EXTENDED FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST TRANSITION FROM SEMI-ZONAL FLOW MID
WEEK TO NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR MOST OF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE THE
STRONGER SYSTEM APPROACHES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
THE REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO COULD IMPACT WEST MICHIGAN. MODELS AT THIS TIME ABSORB
THE SYSTEM INTO THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BEFORE IT
REACHES THE WOLVERINE STATE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS TAF SITES IN
WESTERN MICHIGAN LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. HRRR AND RAP ARE IN AGREEMENT
SHOWING THIS ACTIVITY ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BY
SUNRISE TUESDAY.
CONCERNED ABOUT FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL BE OPTIMISTIC
AND RELY ON DRIER AIRMASS TO WIN OUT OVER SURFACE MOISTURE.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
WE HAVE LEFT THE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS IS FOR THE TIME BEING.
MOST WEB CAMS ALONG THE COAST SHOW QUITE A BIT OF FOG STILL HOLDING
IN. SOUTH HAVEN HAS SEEN SOME IMPROVEMENT AT THE COAST...HOWEVER WE
WILL LEAVE IT FOR THE TIME BEING WITH PLENTY OF FOG ELSEWHERE. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT AS STORMS MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING THAT THE FOG MAY
MIX OUT SOME. WE WILL MONITOR THE SITUATION FOR A POSSIBLE EXTENSION
OF THE HEADLINE.
OTHERWISE...WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY WIND/WAVE HEADLINES THROUGH
MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH WINDS GENERALLY STAYING BELOW 20
KNOTS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
BIGGEST RISK OF AREAL FLOODING TODAY IS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94...
WHERE CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
PUT DOWN OVER 2 INCHES IN SPOTS. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF MODERATE
STRATIFORM TO HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAIN ARE EXPECTED THERE. ELSEWHERE...
SCATTERED HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL POP UP AND
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME. SOILS ARE
BECOMING INCREASINGLY SATURATED AFTER THE PAST FEW DAYS OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN... SO LESS RAIN WILL CAUSE GREATER IMPACTS THAN
USUAL.
MULTIPLE RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT AND MORE MAY BE ON THE
WAY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS RIVER LEVELS AT SOME SITES CONTINUE TO
CLIMB. SMALLER RIVERS THAT HAVE QUICKER RESPONSE... SUCH AS THE
LOOKING GLASS AND SYCAMORE CREEK... ARE ON THEIR WAY BACK DOWN.. BUT
ARE STILL AT THE MERCY OF ANY LOCAL HEAVY RAIN THAT FALLS TONIGHT.
DEEP TROPICAL AIR MASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2
INCHES IS IN PLACE FROM SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THESE PW VALUES ARE AT LEAST EAST 90TH PERCENTILE TO NEAR
RECORD FOR MID JUNE. AS A RESULT... RAINFALL PRODUCTION IN SHOWERS
AND STORMS HAS BEEN VERY EFFICIENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
ANOTHER WAVE ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE THE AREA WITH ANOTHER
POTENTIAL SHOT OF HEAVY RAINFALL... WITH THE MOST LIKELY TARGET
BEING SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91L IN
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL HEAD OUR WAY LATER IN THE WEEK. HOW
MUCH OF THIS ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS CONVERTED TO PRECIPITATION
REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN... THOUGH SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AGAIN STANDS
THE GREATEST RISK FOR MORE HEAVY RAIN.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MIZ059-064>067-
071>074.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...MWS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...NJJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
136 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD BRING FAIR WEATHER ON TUESDAY BUT RAINS MAY RETURN
FOR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1124 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
WE HAVE UPDATED A COUPLE OF THINGS WITH THE FCST THIS MORNING...
INCLUDING BUMPING RAIN CHCS UP TO CATEGORICAL AND ISSUING A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SRN TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES AND CLINTON COUNTY
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WE HAVE TWO WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE POISED TO
MOVE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWFA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FIRST ONE
IS JUST MOVING INTO OUR LAKESHORE COUNTIES AS OF 15Z. THE SECOND
HAS JUST MOVED EAST OF THE MS RIVER AND SHOULD BE IN HERE AROUND
MID AFTERNOON GIVEN ITS CURRENT MOTION.
MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE MAINLY SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDER WITH THESE LINES DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH THE
CLOUDS...FOG...AND RAIN MOVING IN. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE
ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THESE BANDS OVER THE SRN TWO ROWS OF THE
CWFA. THERE IS ALREADY 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE AVAILABLE...WHICH
IS BASED CLOSE TO THE SFC. WE EXPECT THE STORMS TO INTENSIFY A BIT
AS THEY TAP THIS INSTABILITY.
FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL AS LIKELY THE BIGGEST
THREAT...WITH SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
POSSIBLE IN A WET MICROBURST. CAPE IS NOT EXCEPTIONALLY THICK IN
APPEARANCE...BUT BIG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL. EFFECTIVE BULK LAYER SHEAR IS AROUND 30-35 KNOTS...
SUPPORTIVE OF SOME ORGANIZED STORMS.
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED WHERE HEAVIER RAIN FELL OVER
THE PAST WEEKEND WHICH WILL BE THE SAME AREA THAT SEES THE
HEAVIEST RAINS TODAY. THE THINNER APPEARANCE OF THE
CAPE...COMBINED WITH PWATS OF 2.00 INCHES ADVECTING IN AND DEEP
MOISTURE DEFINITELY SUPPORTS A HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING THREAT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 621 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
DENSE FOG HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD SO AN ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR
ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD MITIGATE DENSE
FOG FORMATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
ANOTHER DAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT EXISTS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR IS AROUND 35 KNOTS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW LONG SKINNY CAPE. A FEW STRONG UPDRAFTS COULD PERSIST AND
BRING HAIL AND WIND THREAT...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CLOSED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS OPENS UP AND
MOVES EAST OVER THE TOP OF SE CONUS UPPER HIGH BY THIS EVENING AND
IS EVENTUALLY ABSORBED INTO EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGHING. THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS ARRIVES IN THE AFTERNOON AND SHOULD HELP
DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION.
STORMS WILL DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WITH CANADIAN SFC HIGH BUILDING IN FOR
TUESDAY WITH LOWER DEW POINTS AND SOME WELCOME DRYING. THIS WILL
BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST ON WEDNESDAY
WITH MOIST RETURN FLOW AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
ASCENT HELPING TO FOCUS SHOWERS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG
AND OUT AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FORECAST FOR LATE THIS WEEK
IS VERY TRICKY DUE LARGELY TO SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EVOLUTION
OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS WEEK.
AT THIS TIME THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR THE WEAK FRONT TO CLEAR
OUR AREA BY THURSDAY ALLOWING A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO GRADUALLY
NUDGE IN FROM THE NW AND BRING FAIR WX THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS
NOTION IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST ECMWF AS WELL. THE FOCUS OF MOST
IF NOT ALL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE IN THE WEEK WOULD
THEN STAY SOUTH OF OUR AREA ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY
REGIONS WHERE REMNANTS OF THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM COULD ALSO
COME INTO PLAY BY LATE FRIDAY AND NEXT WEEKEND.
AT THIS TIME WE WILL STILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS LATE THIS WEEK TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH OUR PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE
WX PATTERN AND POTENTIAL TROPICAL REMNANT MOISTURE THAT FAR OUT IN
TIME. FUTURE SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO TREND THE FCST FOR
THURSDAY/FRIDAY DRIER IF THESE GUIDANCE TRENDS CONTINUE.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE RATHER CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG
RANGE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS TAF SITES IN
WESTERN MICHIGAN LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. HRRR AND RAP ARE IN AGREEMENT
SHOWING THIS ACTIVITY ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BY
SUNRISE TUESDAY.
CONCERNED ABOUT FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL BE OPTIMISTIC
AND RELY ON DRIER AIRMASS TO WIN OUT OVER SURFACE MOISTURE.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1124 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
WE HAVE EXPANDED THE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXTEND THE REST
OF THE WAY DOWN THE NEARSHORE WATERS BASED ON THE WEB CAMS ON SOUTH
HAVEN BUOY AND AT THE SHORE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 4 INCHES HAS FALLEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SINCE
YESTERDAY. SOME AREAL FLOOD IMPACTS WERE OBSERVED UNDER THE HEAVIEST
BANDS OF RAINFALL... BUT THE CONCERN SHIFTS TOWARD RIVERS OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS... AS WELL AS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED MONDAY AND
MID-WEEK.
RIVER FLOOD HEADLINES ARE ONGOING FOR FOUR RIVERS IN THE UPPER
PORTION OF THE GRAND BASIN AND ITS TRIBUTARIES. PERSONS WITH
INTERESTS ALONG THE RIVERS AT DEWITT/EAGLE... IONIA... HASTINGS...
AND HOLT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR RIVER LEVELS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
AS RIVERS ARE ALREADY OUT OF THEIR BANKS OR EXPECTED TO BE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM MICHIGAN TO LOUISIANA ARE RUNNING AT
LEAST 90TH PERCENTILE TO NEAR RECORD FOR MID JUNE. THIS DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAM RIDING UP THE BACKSIDE OF THE SE CONUS
ANTICYCLONE WILL MAKE HEAVY RAIN A CONTINUING CONCERN AS ADDITIONAL
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. CONVECTION MONDAY WILL
BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS AS WAS THE CONVECTION SUNDAY
MORNING. ALSO OF NOTE IS INVEST 91L NEAR THE YUCATAN... WHICH WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE US GULF COAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AND SPREAD
MOISTURE TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY... POSSIBLY THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES... FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. SATURATED SOIL AND HIGH RUNNING RIVER
LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA WILL MAKE US MORE SUSCEPTIBLE THAN USUAL TO
ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. BOTTOM LINE... FLOODING WILL HAVE TO SHARE
THE STAGE WITH SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MIZ059-064>067-
071>074.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...MWS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...OSTUNO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
113 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 709 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
LATEST WEB CAMS SHOW MOST OF THE FOG NEAR THE LK SUP SHORE HAS
CLEARED AWAY. SO CUT DOWN ON FOG COVERAGE TO JUST PATCHY IN THIS
AREA. CANX THE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVYS ALONG LK SUP EARLIER TO
ACCOUNT FOR THESE TRENDS. AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...PERSIST
NEAR LK MI AND THE BAY OF GREEN BAY. THIS FOG IS NOT LIKELY TO BURN
OFF UNTIL MID TO LATE MRNG WHEN DAYTIME HEATING WL HAVE A GREATER
IMPACT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE
UPR TROF AXIS SHIFTING E THRU THE NRN PLAINS ON THE WRN FLANK OF
RETREATING UPR RDG OVER QUEBEC/NEW ENGLAND. UPR MI IS CURRENTLY
DOMINATED BY DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVC AND STABLE AIRMASS DEPICTED ON THE
00Z GRB RAOB...WHICH SHOWS A SHARP INVRN BTWN ABOUT H8-75 AND KINX
OF -3C...SO THERE IS NO PCPN. BUT WITH LINGERING LLVL MSTR...LO CLDS
PERSIST E OF A LINE FM MUNISING TO ESCANABA OR SO...WITH SOME PATCHY
FOG OVER THE W WITH JUST SOME HI CLDS SPREADING E WELL IN ADVANCE OF
SFC COLD FNT STRETCHING FM NW ONTARIO INTO MN. THERE ARE A FEW
SHOWERS OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD STRETCHING TOWARD MPX THAT ARE MOVING
INTO FAR WRN LK SUP AND EVEN A LTG STRIKE OR TWO JUST S OF DULUTH...
BUT TRACK OF STRONGER SHRTWV INTO FAR NW ONTARIO...NOCTURNAL
COOLING/LIMITED MUCAPE NO MORE THAN ABOUT 100 J/KG...AND LIMITED
MSTR RETURN AHEAD OF THE FNT PER THE 00Z MPX RAOB...WHERE THE H925
AND H85 WINDS WERE SW AT ONLY 5 KTS...IS LIMITING THE COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS. MUCH DRIER AIR IS PRESENT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...SO THERE ARE NOTHING MORE THAN SOME PATCHY CLDS ALONG A
SECOND COLD FNT MOVING INTO FAR NW MN.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SHOWERS/TS AS LEADING SFC COLD FNT CROSSES UPR MI DURING PERIOD OF
DAYTIME HEATING.
TODAY...LEADING SFC COLD FNT IS FCST TO MOVE INTO THE FAR WRN LAND
CWA EARLY THIS MRNG. DESPITE THE NEGATIVE FACTORS LISTED ABOVE...
THERE WL BE AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS AS MODELS FCST AN AREA OF
STRONGER DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA OVER THE
INCOMING FNT. TO THE E...THERE WL BE SOME PATCHY FOG THAT IS LOCALLY
DENSE ESPCIALLY NEAR THE LK SHORES THIS MRNG...BUT ARRIVAL OF
THICKER MID/HI CLDS AND THEN DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CAUSE THIS FOG
TO DISSIPATE EXCEPT NEAR THE SHORES. AS THE FNT PRESSES TO THE E
THRU THE DAY IN THE PRESENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING AND UNDER THE DEEP
LYR FORCING...MODELS INDICATE THIS BNDRY WL ENCOUNTER INCRSG MUCAPE
IN THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE OVER THE SCENTRAL WHEN IT ARRIVES THERE
NEAR 18Z. SINCE THE HIER RES MODELS INDICATE THERE WL BE SOME
GREATER LLVL CNVGC AS THE FNT ENCOUNTERS SOME LK BREEZE BNDRYS
THERE...WL MAINTAIN THE HIER CHC POPS IN THIS AREA...WHERE MAX TEMPS
WL AT LEAST APRCH 80 IN THE PRESENCE OF H85 TEMPS IN THE 13-14C
RANGE. DURING THE AFTN OVER THE W...EXPECT SKIES TO TURN MOSUNNY AS
THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FROPA.
TNGT...ALTHOUGH THE TRAILING SECOND FNT IS FCST TO CROSS UPR MI THIS
EVNG...EARLIER EXIT OF THE DEEPER MSTR INDICATES THERE WL BE ONLY
PATCHY CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS BNDRY. UNDER MOCLR
SKIES...EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 40S AT MOST PLACES AS H85
TEMPS TUMBLE AS LO AS 4C OVER THE NW CWA BY 12Z TUE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...WITH OFF AND ON LIGHT SHOWERS.
BY 12Z TUESDAY THE SFC HIGH OVER MN WILL BE SHIFTING INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. WILL START OFF THE PERIOD DRY...WITH THE HIGH DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...AND EXITING ACROSS E UPPER MI BY
06Z. PW VALUES BOTTOM OUT AROUND 0.5 OVER THE E HALF OF THE CWA
EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. KEPT THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT
RIGHT AROUND 40F OVER THE E. HOWEVER...WITH HIGH CLOUDS ROLLING IN W
AND CENTRAL...TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S WILL BE COMMON
ELSEWHERE.
SHOWERS WILL APPROACH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE FAR SW...AND
EXPAND CENTRAL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY TO OUR S...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT
SLIGHT CHANCE TS MAINLY NEAR THE WI BORDER. EVEN THAT MAY BE A BIT
OVERDONE. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE MONITOR FOR FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS.
UPPER MI WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE MAIN LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AND A
SECONDARY LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY. THE
NORTHERLY COLD FRONT WILL DRAG ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING LATER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. WAA ON FRIDAY /30KT 850MB WINDS OFF THE 15/00Z ECMWF/ WILL
HELP TEMPS REBOUND IN TO UPPER 60S. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES
WITH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION LIKELY BEING THE BEST
CHOICE AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
WITH THE COLD FRONT ALREADY THROUGH THE WESTERN TAF...NOT EXPECTING
ANY SHRA THERE AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE FCST PD.
SCT -SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WL IMPACT SAW OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS INTO MID AFTN. EXPECT SHRA TO LOWER CIGS TO MVFR FOR A BRIEF
TIME BEFORE DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT LEADS TO VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE
REST OF THE FCST PD. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 25KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TROUGH
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SLOWLY EXIT E TODAY...ALONG WITH MUCH OF
THE LINGERING FOG. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N PLAINS THIS EVENING WILL
BUILD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY...AND ACROSS ALL OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
A TROUGH WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS A LOW PUSHES
ACROSS N MANITOBA AND A LOW PASSES NEAR S LAKE MICHIGAN. HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS S CENTRAL CANADA AND THE N PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING
WILL BUILD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN OVER
THE REGION...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES LATE FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
722 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 709 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
LATEST WEB CAMS SHOW MOST OF THE FOG NEAR THE LK SUP SHORE HAS
CLEARED AWAY. SO CUT DOWN ON FOG COVERAGE TO JUST PATCHY IN THIS
AREA. CANX THE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVYS ALONG LK SUP EARLIER TO
ACCOUNT FOR THESE TRENDS. AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...PERSIST
NEAR LK MI AND THE BAY OF GREEN BAY. THIS FOG IS NOT LIKELY TO BURN
OFF UNTIL MID TO LATE MRNG WHEN DAYTIME HEATING WL HAVE A GREATER
IMPACT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE
UPR TROF AXIS SHIFTING E THRU THE NRN PLAINS ON THE WRN FLANK OF
RETREATING UPR RDG OVER QUEBEC/NEW ENGLAND. UPR MI IS CURRENTLY
DOMINATED BY DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVC AND STABLE AIRMASS DEPICTED ON THE
00Z GRB RAOB...WHICH SHOWS A SHARP INVRN BTWN ABOUT H8-75 AND KINX
OF -3C...SO THERE IS NO PCPN. BUT WITH LINGERING LLVL MSTR...LO CLDS
PERSIST E OF A LINE FM MUNISING TO ESCANABA OR SO...WITH SOME PATCHY
FOG OVER THE W WITH JUST SOME HI CLDS SPREADING E WELL IN ADVANCE OF
SFC COLD FNT STRETCHING FM NW ONTARIO INTO MN. THERE ARE A FEW
SHOWERS OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD STRETCHING TOWARD MPX THAT ARE MOVING
INTO FAR WRN LK SUP AND EVEN A LTG STRIKE OR TWO JUST S OF DULUTH...
BUT TRACK OF STRONGER SHRTWV INTO FAR NW ONTARIO...NOCTURNAL
COOLING/LIMITED MUCAPE NO MORE THAN ABOUT 100 J/KG...AND LIMITED
MSTR RETURN AHEAD OF THE FNT PER THE 00Z MPX RAOB...WHERE THE H925
AND H85 WINDS WERE SW AT ONLY 5 KTS...IS LIMITING THE COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS. MUCH DRIER AIR IS PRESENT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...SO THERE ARE NOTHING MORE THAN SOME PATCHY CLDS ALONG A
SECOND COLD FNT MOVING INTO FAR NW MN.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SHOWERS/TS AS LEADING SFC COLD FNT CROSSES UPR MI DURING PERIOD OF
DAYTIME HEATING.
TODAY...LEADING SFC COLD FNT IS FCST TO MOVE INTO THE FAR WRN LAND
CWA EARLY THIS MRNG. DESPITE THE NEGATIVE FACTORS LISTED ABOVE...
THERE WL BE AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS AS MODELS FCST AN AREA OF
STRONGER DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA OVER THE
INCOMING FNT. TO THE E...THERE WL BE SOME PATCHY FOG THAT IS LOCALLY
DENSE ESPCIALLY NEAR THE LK SHORES THIS MRNG...BUT ARRIVAL OF
THICKER MID/HI CLDS AND THEN DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CAUSE THIS FOG
TO DISSIPATE EXCEPT NEAR THE SHORES. AS THE FNT PRESSES TO THE E
THRU THE DAY IN THE PRESENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING AND UNDER THE DEEP
LYR FORCING...MODELS INDICATE THIS BNDRY WL ENCOUNTER INCRSG MUCAPE
IN THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE OVER THE SCENTRAL WHEN IT ARRIVES THERE
NEAR 18Z. SINCE THE HIER RES MODELS INDICATE THERE WL BE SOME
GREATER LLVL CNVGC AS THE FNT ENCOUNTERS SOME LK BREEZE BNDRYS
THERE...WL MAINTAIN THE HIER CHC POPS IN THIS AREA...WHERE MAX TEMPS
WL AT LEAST APRCH 80 IN THE PRESENCE OF H85 TEMPS IN THE 13-14C
RANGE. DURING THE AFTN OVER THE W...EXPECT SKIES TO TURN MOSUNNY AS
THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FROPA.
TNGT...ALTHOUGH THE TRAILING SECOND FNT IS FCST TO CROSS UPR MI THIS
EVNG...EARLIER EXIT OF THE DEEPER MSTR INDICATES THERE WL BE ONLY
PATCHY CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS BNDRY. UNDER MOCLR
SKIES...EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 40S AT MOST PLACES AS H85
TEMPS TUMBLE AS LO AS 4C OVER THE NW CWA BY 12Z TUE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...WITH OFF AND ON LIGHT SHOWERS.
BY 12Z TUESDAY THE SFC HIGH OVER MN WILL BE SHIFTING INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. WILL START OFF THE PERIOD DRY...WITH THE HIGH DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...AND EXITING ACROSS E UPPER MI BY
06Z. PW VALUES BOTTOM OUT AROUND 0.5 OVER THE E HALF OF THE CWA
EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. KEPT THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT
RIGHT AROUND 40F OVER THE E. HOWEVER...WITH HIGH CLOUDS ROLLING IN W
AND CENTRAL...TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S WILL BE COMMON
ELSEWHERE.
SHOWERS WILL APPROACH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE FAR SW...AND
EXPAND CENTRAL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY TO OUR S...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT
SLIGHT CHANCE TS MAINLY NEAR THE WI BORDER. EVEN THAT MAY BE A BIT
OVERDONE. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE MONITOR FOR FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS.
UPPER MI WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE MAIN LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AND A
SECONDARY LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY. THE
NORTHERLY COLD FRONT WILL DRAG ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING LATER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. WAA ON FRIDAY /30KT 850MB WINDS OFF THE 15/00Z ECMWF/ WILL
HELP TEMPS REBOUND IN TO UPPER 60S. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES
WITH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION LIKELY BEING THE BEST
CHOICE AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
EXPECT LINGERING FOG/LIFR CONDITIONS AT SAW TO BURN OFF SOON AFTER
TAF ISSUANCE AND GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH SOME HEAVIER
SHOWERS ALONG AN INCOMING COLD FNT MAY BRING SOME MVFR CONDITIONS AT
IWD...THESE HEAVIER SHOWERS WL SHIFT TO THE E AND AWAY FM THIS SITE
EARLY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF VFR WX. CMX IS LIKELY TO MISS THESE
SHOWERS ALTOGETHER. SCT -SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE FNT MAY IMPACT SAW
FM LATE THIS MRNG THRU MID AFTN. ALTHOUGH A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS
COULD CAUSE MVFR CONDITIONS THERE FOR A BRIEF TIME...UNCERTAINTY ON
THE OCCURRENCE AND TIMING OF THESE SHOWERS IS TOO HI TO INCLUDE A
SPECIFIC FCST OF LOWER THAN VFR. DRIER AIR IN THE NNW FLOW BEHIND
THE COLD FROPA WL THEN RESULT IN VFR WX AT ALL 3 TAF SITES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 25KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TROUGH
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SLOWLY EXIT E TODAY...ALONG WITH MUCH OF
THE LINGERING FOG. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N PLAINS THIS EVENING WILL
BUILD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY...AND ACROSS ALL OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
A TROUGH WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS A LOW PUSHES
ACROSS N MANITOBA AND A LOW PASSES NEAR S LAKE MICHIGAN. HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS S CENTRAL CANADA AND THE N PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING
WILL BUILD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN OVER
THE REGION...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES LATE FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ263>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ221-248-
250.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
710 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 709 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
LATEST WEB CAMS SHOW MOST OF THE FOG NEAR THE LK SUP SHORE HAS
CLEARED AWAY. SO CUT DOWN ON FOG COVERAGE TO JUST PATCHY IN THIS
AREA. CANX THE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVYS ALONG LK SUP EARLIER TO
ACCOUNT FOR THESE TRENDS. AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...PERSIST
NEAR LK MI AND THE BAY OF GREEN BAY. THIS FOG IS NOT LIKELY TO BURN
OFF UNTIL MID TO LATE MRNG WHEN DAYTIME HEATING WL HAVE A GREATER
IMPACT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE
UPR TROF AXIS SHIFTING E THRU THE NRN PLAINS ON THE WRN FLANK OF
RETREATING UPR RDG OVER QUEBEC/NEW ENGLAND. UPR MI IS CURRENTLY
DOMINATED BY DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVC AND STABLE AIRMASS DEPICTED ON THE
00Z GRB RAOB...WHICH SHOWS A SHARP INVRN BTWN ABOUT H8-75 AND KINX
OF -3C...SO THERE IS NO PCPN. BUT WITH LINGERING LLVL MSTR...LO CLDS
PERSIST E OF A LINE FM MUNISING TO ESCANABA OR SO...WITH SOME PATCHY
FOG OVER THE W WITH JUST SOME HI CLDS SPREADING E WELL IN ADVANCE OF
SFC COLD FNT STRETCHING FM NW ONTARIO INTO MN. THERE ARE A FEW
SHOWERS OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD STRETCHING TOWARD MPX THAT ARE MOVING
INTO FAR WRN LK SUP AND EVEN A LTG STRIKE OR TWO JUST S OF DULUTH...
BUT TRACK OF STRONGER SHRTWV INTO FAR NW ONTARIO...NOCTURNAL
COOLING/LIMITED MUCAPE NO MORE THAN ABOUT 100 J/KG...AND LIMITED
MSTR RETURN AHEAD OF THE FNT PER THE 00Z MPX RAOB...WHERE THE H925
AND H85 WINDS WERE SW AT ONLY 5 KTS...IS LIMITING THE COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS. MUCH DRIER AIR IS PRESENT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...SO THERE ARE NOTHING MORE THAN SOME PATCHY CLDS ALONG A
SECOND COLD FNT MOVING INTO FAR NW MN.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SHOWERS/TS AS LEADING SFC COLD FNT CROSSES UPR MI DURING PERIOD OF
DAYTIME HEATING.
TODAY...LEADING SFC COLD FNT IS FCST TO MOVE INTO THE FAR WRN LAND
CWA EARLY THIS MRNG. DESPITE THE NEGATIVE FACTORS LISTED ABOVE...
THERE WL BE AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS AS MODELS FCST AN AREA OF
STRONGER DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA OVER THE
INCOMING FNT. TO THE E...THERE WL BE SOME PATCHY FOG THAT IS LOCALLY
DENSE ESPCIALLY NEAR THE LK SHORES THIS MRNG...BUT ARRIVAL OF
THICKER MID/HI CLDS AND THEN DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CAUSE THIS FOG
TO DISSIPATE EXCEPT NEAR THE SHORES. AS THE FNT PRESSES TO THE E
THRU THE DAY IN THE PRESENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING AND UNDER THE DEEP
LYR FORCING...MODELS INDICATE THIS BNDRY WL ENCOUNTER INCRSG MUCAPE
IN THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE OVER THE SCENTRAL WHEN IT ARRIVES THERE
NEAR 18Z. SINCE THE HIER RES MODELS INDICATE THERE WL BE SOME
GREATER LLVL CNVGC AS THE FNT ENCOUNTERS SOME LK BREEZE BNDRYS
THERE...WL MAINTAIN THE HIER CHC POPS IN THIS AREA...WHERE MAX TEMPS
WL AT LEAST APRCH 80 IN THE PRESENCE OF H85 TEMPS IN THE 13-14C
RANGE. DURING THE AFTN OVER THE W...EXPECT SKIES TO TURN MOSUNNY AS
THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FROPA.
TNGT...ALTHOUGH THE TRAILING SECOND FNT IS FCST TO CROSS UPR MI THIS
EVNG...EARLIER EXIT OF THE DEEPER MSTR INDICATES THERE WL BE ONLY
PATCHY CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS BNDRY. UNDER MOCLR
SKIES...EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 40S AT MOST PLACES AS H85
TEMPS TUMBLE AS LO AS 4C OVER THE NW CWA BY 12Z TUE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...WITH OFF AND ON LIGHT SHOWERS.
BY 12Z TUESDAY THE SFC HIGH OVER MN WILL BE SHIFTING INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. WILL START OFF THE PERIOD DRY...WITH THE HIGH DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...AND EXITING ACROSS E UPPER MI BY
06Z. PW VALUES BOTTOM OUT AROUND 0.5 OVER THE E HALF OF THE CWA
EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. KEPT THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT
RIGHT AROUND 40F OVER THE E. HOWEVER...WITH HIGH CLOUDS ROLLING IN W
AND CENTRAL...TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S WILL BE COMMON
ELSEWHERE.
SHOWERS WILL APPROACH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE FAR SW...AND
EXPAND CENTRAL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY TO OUR S...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT
SLIGHT CHANCE TS MAINLY NEAR THE WI BORDER. EVEN THAT MAY BE A BIT
OVERDONE. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE MONITOR FOR FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS.
UPPER MI WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE MAIN LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AND A
SECONDARY LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY. THE
NORTHERLY COLD FRONT WILL DRAG ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING LATER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. WAA ON FRIDAY /30KT 850MB WINDS OFF THE 15/00Z ECMWF/ WILL
HELP TEMPS REBOUND IN TO UPPER 60S. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES
WITH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION LIKELY BEING THE BEST
CHOICE AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
MID CLOUDS MOVING AHEAD OF INCOMING SYSTEM FROM THE WEST MAY LIMIT
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH CLOUDS
WILL UTILIZE A TEMPO GROUP FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF MVFR VSBYS IN FOG AT MAINLY KCMX AND KSAW WHERE DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE ONLY A DEGREE AT PRESENT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. EXPECT IT TO HAVE THE
GREATEST INFLUENCE ON KIWD/KSAW AND HAVE WENT WITH
-SHRA AT THOSE SITES. THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS AT
KIWD LATE TONIGHT AND KSAW ON MONDAY. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES FROM
WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE FRONT MON AFTERNOON INTO MON EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 25KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TROUGH
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SLOWLY EXIT E TODAY...ALONG WITH MUCH OF
THE LINGERING FOG. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N PLAINS THIS EVENING WILL
BUILD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY...AND ACROSS ALL OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
A TROUGH WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS A LOW PUSHES
ACROSS N MANITOBA AND A LOW PASSES NEAR S LAKE MICHIGAN. HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS S CENTRAL CANADA AND THE N PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING
WILL BUILD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN OVER
THE REGION...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES LATE FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ263>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ221-248-
250.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
520 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE
UPR TROF AXIS SHIFTING E THRU THE NRN PLAINS ON THE WRN FLANK OF
RETREATING UPR RDG OVER QUEBEC/NEW ENGLAND. UPR MI IS CURRENTLY
DOMINATED BY DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVC AND STABLE AIRMASS DEPICTED ON THE
00Z GRB RAOB...WHICH SHOWS A SHARP INVRN BTWN ABOUT H8-75 AND KINX
OF -3C...SO THERE IS NO PCPN. BUT WITH LINGERING LLVL MSTR...LO CLDS
PERSIST E OF A LINE FM MUNISING TO ESCANABA OR SO...WITH SOME PATCHY
FOG OVER THE W WITH JUST SOME HI CLDS SPREADING E WELL IN ADVANCE OF
SFC COLD FNT STRETCHING FM NW ONTARIO INTO MN. THERE ARE A FEW
SHOWERS OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD STRETCHING TOWARD MPX THAT ARE MOVING
INTO FAR WRN LK SUP AND EVEN A LTG STRIKE OR TWO JUST S OF DULUTH...
BUT TRACK OF STRONGER SHRTWV INTO FAR NW ONTARIO...NOCTURNAL
COOLING/LIMITED MUCAPE NO MORE THAN ABOUT 100 J/KG...AND LIMITED
MSTR RETURN AHEAD OF THE FNT PER THE 00Z MPX RAOB...WHERE THE H925
AND H85 WINDS WERE SW AT ONLY 5 KTS...IS LIMITING THE COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS. MUCH DRIER AIR IS PRESENT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...SO THERE ARE NOTHING MORE THAN SOME PATCHY CLDS ALONG A
SECOND COLD FNT MOVING INTO FAR NW MN.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SHOWERS/TS AS LEADING SFC COLD FNT CROSSES UPR MI DURING PERIOD OF
DAYTIME HEATING.
TODAY...LEADING SFC COLD FNT IS FCST TO MOVE INTO THE FAR WRN LAND
CWA EARLY THIS MRNG. DESPITE THE NEGATIVE FACTORS LISTED ABOVE...
THERE WL BE AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS AS MODELS FCST AN AREA OF
STRONGER DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA OVER THE
INCOMING FNT. TO THE E...THERE WL BE SOME PATCHY FOG THAT IS LOCALLY
DENSE ESPCIALLY NEAR THE LK SHORES THIS MRNG...BUT ARRIVAL OF
THICKER MID/HI CLDS AND THEN DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CAUSE THIS FOG
TO DISSIPATE EXCEPT NEAR THE SHORES. AS THE FNT PRESSES TO THE E
THRU THE DAY IN THE PRESENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING AND UNDER THE DEEP
LYR FORCING...MODELS INDICATE THIS BNDRY WL ENCOUNTER INCRSG MUCAPE
IN THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE OVER THE SCENTRAL WHEN IT ARRIVES THERE
NEAR 18Z. SINCE THE HIER RES MODELS INDICATE THERE WL BE SOME
GREATER LLVL CNVGC AS THE FNT ENCOUNTERS SOME LK BREEZE BNDRYS
THERE...WL MAINTAIN THE HIER CHC POPS IN THIS AREA...WHERE MAX TEMPS
WL AT LEAST APRCH 80 IN THE PRESENCE OF H85 TEMPS IN THE 13-14C
RANGE. DURING THE AFTN OVER THE W...EXPECT SKIES TO TURN MOSUNNY AS
THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FROPA.
TNGT...ALTHOUGH THE TRAILING SECOND FNT IS FCST TO CROSS UPR MI THIS
EVNG...EARLIER EXIT OF THE DEEPER MSTR INDICATES THERE WL BE ONLY
PATCHY CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS BNDRY. UNDER MOCLR
SKIES...EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 40S AT MOST PLACES AS H85
TEMPS TUMBLE AS LO AS 4C OVER THE NW CWA BY 12Z TUE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...WITH OFF AND ON LIGHT SHOWERS.
BY 12Z TUESDAY THE SFC HIGH OVER MN WILL BE SHIFTING INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. WILL START OFF THE PERIOD DRY...WITH THE HIGH DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...AND EXITING ACROSS E UPPER MI BY
06Z. PW VALUES BOTTOM OUT AROUND 0.5 OVER THE E HALF OF THE CWA
EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. KEPT THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT
RIGHT AROUND 40F OVER THE E. HOWEVER...WITH HIGH CLOUDS ROLLING IN W
AND CENTRAL...TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S WILL BE COMMON
ELSEWHERE.
SHOWERS WILL APPROACH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE FAR SW...AND
EXPAND CENTRAL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY TO OUR S...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT
SLIGHT CHANCE TS MAINLY NEAR THE WI BORDER. EVEN THAT MAY BE A BIT
OVERDONE. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE MONITOR FOR FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS.
UPPER MI WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE MAIN LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AND A
SECONDARY LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY. THE
NORTHERLY COLD FRONT WILL DRAG ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING LATER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. WAA ON FRIDAY /30KT 850MB WINDS OFF THE 15/00Z ECMWF/ WILL
HELP TEMPS REBOUND IN TO UPPER 60S. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES
WITH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION LIKELY BEING THE BEST
CHOICE AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
MID CLOUDS MOVING AHEAD OF INCOMING SYSTEM FROM THE WEST MAY LIMIT
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH CLOUDS
WILL UTILIZE A TEMPO GROUP FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF MVFR VSBYS IN FOG AT MAINLY KCMX AND KSAW WHERE DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE ONLY A DEGREE AT PRESENT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. EXPECT IT TO HAVE THE
GREATEST INFLUENCE ON KIWD/KSAW AND HAVE WENT WITH
-SHRA AT THOSE SITES. THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS AT
KIWD LATE TONIGHT AND KSAW ON MONDAY. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES FROM
WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE FRONT MON AFTERNOON INTO MON EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 25KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TROUGH
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SLOWLY EXIT E TODAY...ALONG WITH MUCH OF
THE LINGERING FOG. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N PLAINS THIS EVENING WILL
BUILD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY...AND ACROSS ALL OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
A TROUGH WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS A LOW PUSHES
ACROSS N MANITOBA AND A LOW PASSES NEAR S LAKE MICHIGAN. HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS S CENTRAL CANADA AND THE N PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING
WILL BUILD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN OVER
THE REGION...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES LATE FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ242>245-
248>251-263>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ221-248-
250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
430 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE
UPR TROF AXIS SHIFTING E THRU THE NRN PLAINS ON THE WRN FLANK OF
RETREATING UPR RDG OVER QUEBEC/NEW ENGLAND. UPR MI IS CURRENTLY
DOMINATED BY DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVC AND STABLE AIRMASS DEPICTED ON THE
00Z GRB RAOB...WHICH SHOWS A SHARP INVRN BTWN ABOUT H8-75 AND KINX
OF -3C...SO THERE IS NO PCPN. BUT WITH LINGERING LLVL MSTR...LO CLDS
PERSIST E OF A LINE FM MUNISING TO ESCANABA OR SO...WITH SOME PATCHY
FOG OVER THE W WITH JUST SOME HI CLDS SPREADING E WELL IN ADVANCE OF
SFC COLD FNT STRETCHING FM NW ONTARIO INTO MN. THERE ARE A FEW
SHOWERS OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD STRETCHING TOWARD MPX THAT ARE MOVING
INTO FAR WRN LK SUP AND EVEN A LTG STRIKE OR TWO JUST S OF DULUTH...
BUT TRACK OF STRONGER SHRTWV INTO FAR NW ONTARIO...NOCTURNAL
COOLING/LIMITED MUCAPE NO MORE THAN ABOUT 100 J/KG...AND LIMITED
MSTR RETURN AHEAD OF THE FNT PER THE 00Z MPX RAOB...WHERE THE H925
AND H85 WINDS WERE SW AT ONLY 5 KTS...IS LIMITING THE COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS. MUCH DRIER AIR IS PRESENT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...SO THERE ARE NOTHING MORE THAN SOME PATCHY CLDS ALONG A
SECOND COLD FNT MOVING INTO FAR NW MN.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SHOWERS/TS AS LEADING SFC COLD FNT CROSSES UPR MI DURING PERIOD OF
DAYTIME HEATING.
TODAY...LEADING SFC COLD FNT IS FCST TO MOVE INTO THE FAR WRN LAND
CWA EARLY THIS MRNG. DESPITE THE NEGATIVE FACTORS LISTED ABOVE...
THERE WL BE AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS AS MODELS FCST AN AREA OF
STRONGER DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA OVER THE
INCOMING FNT. TO THE E...THERE WL BE SOME PATCHY FOG THAT IS LOCALLY
DENSE ESPCIALLY NEAR THE LK SHORES THIS MRNG...BUT ARRIVAL OF
THICKER MID/HI CLDS AND THEN DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CAUSE THIS FOG
TO DISSIPATE EXCEPT NEAR THE SHORES. AS THE FNT PRESSES TO THE E
THRU THE DAY IN THE PRESENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING AND UNDER THE DEEP
LYR FORCING...MODELS INDICATE THIS BNDRY WL ENCOUNTER INCRSG MUCAPE
IN THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE OVER THE SCENTRAL WHEN IT ARRIVES THERE
NEAR 18Z. SINCE THE HIER RES MODELS INDICATE THERE WL BE SOME
GREATER LLVL CNVGC AS THE FNT ENCOUNTERS SOME LK BREEZE BNDRYS
THERE...WL MAINTAIN THE HIER CHC POPS IN THIS AREA...WHERE MAX TEMPS
WL AT LEAST APRCH 80 IN THE PRESENCE OF H85 TEMPS IN THE 13-14C
RANGE. DURING THE AFTN OVER THE W...EXPECT SKIES TO TURN MOSUNNY AS
THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FROPA.
TNGT...ALTHOUGH THE TRAILING SECOND FNT IS FCST TO CROSS UPR MI THIS
EVNG...EARLIER EXIT OF THE DEEPER MSTR INDICATES THERE WL BE ONLY
PATCHY CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS BNDRY. UNDER MOCLR
SKIES...EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 40S AT MOST PLACES AS H85
TEMPS TUMBLE AS LO AS 4C OVER THE NW CWA BY 12Z TUE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
CONFIDENCE IN THE EARLY PART OF THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST IS PRETTY
HIGH WITH DETAILS GENERALLY STRAIGHT FORWARD. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY TOMORROW EVENING. DRIER
AIR WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WITH LAKE BREEZES PUSHING
INLAND AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE U.P. DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
NEXT SHORTWAVE STREAKING EASTWARD IN PRIMARILY ZONAL FLOW ALONG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY
WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT BUT
NOT BEFORE A DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT ACROSS THE EAST WITH
LOWS FALLING TO AROUND 40 IN THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCALES. SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONGST THE MODELS WITH WEDNESDAYS
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE AREA. BASED ON RECENT DISMAL MODEL
PERFORMANCE BEST COURSE OF ACTION WILL BE TO GO WITH A MODEL
CONSENSUS ON POPS FOR THE WED/WED NIGHT TIME PERIOD YIELDING CHANCE
TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE THREAT FOR ROBUST CONVECTION LOOKS LOW.
AS OF NOW...THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...UPPER
TROUGHING DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL EJECT SHORTWAVE
ENERGY EASTWARD IN ZONAL FLOW. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
AGAIN ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
MID CLOUDS MOVING AHEAD OF INCOMING SYSTEM FROM THE WEST MAY LIMIT
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH CLOUDS
WILL UTILIZE A TEMPO GROUP FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF MVFR VSBYS IN FOG AT MAINLY KCMX AND KSAW WHERE DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE ONLY A DEGREE AT PRESENT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. EXPECT IT TO HAVE THE
GREATEST INFLUENCE ON KIWD/KSAW AND HAVE WENT WITH
-SHRA AT THOSE SITES. THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS AT
KIWD LATE TONIGHT AND KSAW ON MONDAY. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES FROM
WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE FRONT MON AFTERNOON INTO MON EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 25KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TROUGH
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SLOWLY EXIT E TODAY...ALONG WITH MUCH OF
THE LINGERING FOG. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N PLAINS THIS EVENING WILL
BUILD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY...AND ACROSS ALL OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
A TROUGH WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS A LOW PUSHES
ACROSS N MANITOBA AND A LOW PASSES NEAR S LAKE MICHIGAN. HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS S CENTRAL CANADA AND THE N PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING
WILL BUILD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN OVER
THE REGION...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES LATE FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ242>245-
248>251-263>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ221-248-
250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
312 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
THROUGH THIS EVENING...BREEZY NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
A PASSING COLD FRONT. SCATTERED/BROKEN CUMULUS WILL SPREAD THROUGH
NE MINNESOTA...AND THERE COULD BE ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN FORECAST AREA. ADDED THE SHOWERS AS
SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR AND HOPWRF HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE.
LATER TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND THE
DAKOTA WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT INTO MINNESOTA. THERE SHOULD BE
CLEARING OVERNIGHT...AND THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BECOME VERY LIGHT.
THIS WILL PROMOTE RADIATIONAL COOLING...SO LEANED ON THE COOLER
MODEL GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES. LOWS WILL LIKELY
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH THE COLDEST READINGS
ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. MIGHT NEED TO LOWER THE FORECAST EVEN
MORE.
TUESDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN THE DAY OVER
CENTRAL/NORTHERN MINNESOTA...AND IT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST
THROUGH THE DAY. SUNNY SKIES WILL GREET THE NORTHLAND AT SUNRISE
AND THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT THERE SHOULD BE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER FROM THE WEST AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.
SHOWERS COULD SPREAD INTO THE NORTHLAND FROM THE WEST...BEGINNING
IN THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION...LATE IN THE DAY. MOST MODEL
GUIDANCE PRIMARILY HOLDS OFF PCPN UNTIL THE EVENING...AFTER 00Z.
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WED MORNING...BRINGING
RAIN SHOWERS TO A GOOD PORTION OF THE NORTHLAND. AT THIS TIME THE
BULK OF THE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH. A
WEDGE OF DRY AIR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SIT OVER THE NRN GREAT
LAKES AND WRN ONTARIO REGION AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES AND SHUNT
THE TRACK OF THE LOW TO THE SOUTH. KEEPING THE NRN THIRD OF THE
CWA MOSTLY DRY. BY WED AFTERNOON...AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH SRN WI
A STRONGER SURGE OF UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE LIFTED INTO THE AREA AND
POSSIBLY TRIGGER A FEW T-STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
WED NIGHT AS A SECONDARY WEAK FRONT SLIDES ACROSS FAR NE MN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN ON THURSDAY AND THUR NIGHT...BUT MOVE
RAPIDLY TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY AS THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARRIVES ALONG A WARM FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND WITH THE
MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S AND 70S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT...SO AT THIS TIME THERE IS NO INDICATION
OF ANY SORT OF A SIGNIFICANT LAKE BREEZE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING IN ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA. A THICK DECK
OF STRATO-CU HAS MOVED IN ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE MN THIS
AFTERNOON...AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND
INL...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN 18Z TAF.
GUSTY NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND SKIES WILL
CLEAR OFF. ANOTHER ROUND OF LATE MORNING STRATO-CU WILL DEVELOP ON
TUESDAY JUST BEFORE 18Z...AND WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE
E/NE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 46 68 49 64 / 0 10 40 50
INL 38 70 48 70 / 10 0 20 10
BRD 45 69 52 69 / 10 30 70 50
HYR 43 72 53 67 / 0 0 40 60
ASX 48 68 50 64 / 0 0 30 50
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...TENTINGER
AVIATION...TENTINGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
656 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND AT 3 AM WAS LOCATED FROM NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN TO
SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED BEHIND
THIS COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AND FAR EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA IN RESPONSE TO A BIT OF LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...AND
MODELS SHOW AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR THEM TO BUILD EAST ACROSS
SRN MN IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL ARRIVE
LATER THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS IOWA LIFT NORTHEAST
INTO SOUTHEASTERN MN AND WI. THE HRRR HAS A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON
WHAT IS CURRENTLY ON RADAR AND RELIED HEAVILY ON IT FOR THE TRENDS
EXPECTED TODAY. BEST WINDOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO IMPACT AREAS
FROM ALBERT LEA TO EAU CLAIRE IS MID TO LATE MORNING WITH DRIER AIR
ARRIVING THIS AFTERNOON.
THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH CLEARING SKIES. LOWER DEW
POINTS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD WILL BRING LOW TEMPS DOWN
INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S TONIGHT. DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL
PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
THE LONG TERM CONCERNS REMAIN TIMING OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE AREA AS WE REMAIN CLOSE TO BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THE POLAR JET.
ALSO...MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS BECOME MORE
AMPLIFIED AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
INITIALLY...DRY AND MILD WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY. THALER
QG INDICATES FORCING AHEAD OF THE DAKOTAS SHORT WAVE SHOULD BE
ABLE TO SPREAD SOME SHOWERS INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. TIMING STILL LOOKS LIKE THAT THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THREAT SHOULD EXIT INTO WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THUNDER THREAT IS MINIMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
THE NEXT THREAT OF MORE ORGANIZED WEATHER SHOULD MOVE INTO THE
AREA LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
TROPICAL SYSTEM AND ITS ATTENDANT DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH
OF THE AREA. THE NORTHERN JET STREAM FORCING ANOTHER WAVE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. FASTER UPPER FLOW BRINGS ANOTHER TROUGH
INTO THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH
THE TROUGH WITH THE ECMWF PAINTING A DEEP LOW DEVELOPING AND
MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS IS LIKELY OVERDONE...BUT
DETAILS WITH TIMING OF ACTIVITY REMAINS DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME.
IF THE GFS VERIFIES... MUCH OF SATURDAY COULD BE DRY. WE WILL HAVE
TO WAIT AND SEE IF MODEL CONTINUITY BECOMES CLEARER IN FUTURE
MODEL RUNS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DIFFICULT AS WELL...WITH READINGS
RANGING CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGE TRENDING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL AGAIN INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
IFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ALONG I-90 AND I-35 ACROSS SRN
MN...BUT EXPECT SUCH CONDITIONS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF ANY TAF
LOCATIONS. MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS. ONE SUCH
CLUSTER SOUTH OF RWF AND WEST OF MKT IS NOT MOVING MUCH AT ALL. IT
WILL BREAK UP LATER THIS MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING TO THE EAST ACROSS WI AND SERN MN. GRADUAL
CLEARING EXPECTED ELSEWHERE TODAY AND ACROSS WI THIS EVENING.
KMSP...SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL VERY LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH
AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS E AT 5 KT.
WED...VFR WITH IFR/TSRA LIKELY EARLY. WINDS E AT 5-15 KT BECOMING
NW.
THU...VFR. WINDS N 5-10 KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
329 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND AT 3 AM WAS LOCATED FROM NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN TO
SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED BEHIND
THIS COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AND FAR EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA IN RESPONSE TO A BIT OF LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...AND
MODELS SHOW AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR THEM TO BUILD EAST ACROSS
SRN MN IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL ARRIVE
LATER THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS IOWA LIFT NORTHEAST
INTO SOUTHEASTERN MN AND WI. THE HRRR HAS A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON
WHAT IS CURRENTLY ON RADAR AND RELIED HEAVILY ON IT FOR THE TRENDS
EXPECTED TODAY. BEST WINDOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO IMPACT AREAS
FROM ALBERT LEA TO EAU CLAIRE IS MID TO LATE MORNING WITH DRIER AIR
ARRIVING THIS AFTERNOON.
THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH CLEARING SKIES. LOWER DEW
POINTS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD WILL BRING LOW TEMPS DOWN
INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S TONIGHT. DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL
PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
THE LONG TERM CONCERNS REMAIN TIMING OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE AREA AS WE REMAIN CLOSE TO BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THE POLAR JET.
ALSO...MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS BECOME MORE
AMPLIFIED AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
INITIALLY...DRY AND MILD WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY. THALER
QG INDICATES FORCING AHEAD OF THE DAKOTAS SHORT WAVE SHOULD BE
ABLE TO SPREAD SOME SHOWERS INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. TIMING STILL LOOKS LIKE THAT THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THREAT SHOULD EXIT INTO WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THUNDER THREAT IS MINIMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
THE NEXT THREAT OF MORE ORGANIZED WEATHER SHOULD MOVE INTO THE
AREA LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
TROPICAL SYSTEM AND ITS ATTENDANT DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH
OF THE AREA. THE NORTHERN JET STREAM FORCING ANOTHER WAVE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. FASTER UPPER FLOW BRINGS ANOTHER TROUGH
INTO THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH
THE TROUGH WITH THE ECMWF PAINTING A DEEP LOW DEVELOPING AND
MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS IS LIKELY OVERDONE...BUT
DETAILS WITH TIMING OF ACTIVITY REMAINS DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME.
IF THE GFS VERIFIES... MUCH OF SATURDAY COULD BE DRY. WE WILL HAVE
TO WAIT AND SEE IF MODEL CONTINUITY BECOMES CLEARER IN FUTURE
MODEL RUNS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DIFFICULT AS WELL...WITH READINGS
RANGING CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGE TRENDING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL AGAIN INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FALL APART...AND WILL BE ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED
TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD
PREVENT ANY FOG FROM FORMING..DESPITE THE LIGHT WINDS. ON MONDAY
WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY...WITH GUSTS NEAR 15KTS.
KMSP...
PRECIP CONTINUES TO DIMINISH...SO HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION FROM
THE TAFS. LIGHT WINDS SHOULD HAVE A WESTERLY COMPONENT BY
06-07Z...AND BECOME NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT. ON MONDAY GUSTS NEAR
15KTS ARE EXPECTED...BUT THESE SHOULD DIMINISH NEAR SUNSET.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS E AT 5 KT
WED...VFR WITH IFR/TSRA POSSIBLE EARLY. WINDS SE AT 15 KT BECOMING
NW AT 10G15 KT AFTER 18Z
THU...VFR. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...JRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1253 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING ALONG AND BEHIND A
COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHED FROM JUST EAST OF ELY INTO SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA AS OF 23Z. WE HAVE SEEN A STRONG STORM OR TWO BUT THEY
HAVE BEEN UNABLE TO GET ORGANIZED. WE EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THIS
EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. FORCING IS NOT
TOO IMPRESSIVE AND MLCAPE/MUCAPE VALUES HAVE DIMINISHED A BIT OVER
THE PAST 3 HOURS PER SPC MESOANALYSIS. WE WILL MONITOR RADAR
TRENDS FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO...THEN MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS
AS COVERAGE HAS BEEN LIMITED SO FAR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
MAIN CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM IS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES AREA OF SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM
INL TO NEAR BJI MOVING EAST. THIS AREA CONTAINED THUNDERSTORMS
EARLIER BUT HAS DECREASED IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES INTO MORE
STABLE AIR. THE CONCERN TONIGHT IS SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT 20Z...THE
FRONT EXTENDED FROM INL THROUGH BJI TO SAZ. BASED ON THE CURRENT
MOVEMENT AND MODEL FORECASTS...IT WILL MOVE THROUGH DLH SOMETIME
THIS EVENING AND OUT OF NW WI BY MONDAY MORNING. THE AREA OUT
AHEAD OF IT IN NE MN RECEIVED A FEW HOURS OF SUN TODAY AND
DUPONT`S ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. SPC MESOSCALE PAGE
INDICATES SOME INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPES OF 500-700 AND LIFTED
INDEXES OF -2 TO -3. THE HRRR INDICATES A LINE OF PRECIPITATION
WILL FORM ACROSS NORTHERN MN AROUND 21-22Z BUT FALL APART AS IT
MOVES EAST THIS EVENING. THE TWIN PORTS AND ARROWHEAD REGION MAY
SEE SOME PRECIPITATION BUT IT MAY BE WIDELY SCATTERED.
A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT
CLEARING OUT THE SKIES WEST TO EAST BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING.
THERE WILL STILL BE A LINGERING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN NW WI
MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT PASS THROUGH THAT REGION.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER MIDWEST REMAINS IN A ZONAL FLOW WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVES THAT TRANSLATE OVER THE REGION.
AN AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OVER MINNESOTA MONDAY
NIGHT...SETTLING OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL
RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS.
THE NEXT WAVE WILL TRANSLATE EAST OUT OF THE DAKOTAS AND INTO
WESTERN MN TUESDAY NIGHT...TRACKING OVER THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY.
THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS WAVE IS STILL SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN...BUT AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION...EAST ACROSS
THE ST CROIX RIVER VALLEY AND OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A COLD FRONT DROP OUT OF
CANADA AND BRINGS ANOTHER SHOT FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
WITH THE CANADIAN AIR MASS.
THE LATEST ECM/GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT WAVE WITH
AN H85 CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE EAST ALONG THE
CANADIAN/NORTH DAKOTA BORDER LATE IN THE WEEK...SWEEPING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME
FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD
OF A 850MB TROUGH FROM NEAR LONG PRAIRIE NORTHEAST TO MOOSE LAKE.
THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT/850MB TROUGH AXIS
MOVE SLOWLY EAST. A MIX OF CONDITIONS FROM LIFR TO VFR WILL OCCUR
WITH THE LIFR IN THE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BEHIND THE FRONT.
FOG HAS FORMED THERE. FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN
SPOTS...BUT SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY MONDAY MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH GOOD MIXING. WE DO EXPECT A
CU FIELD TO DEVELOP...BUT IT WILL BE VFR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 47 66 48 59 / 0 0 50 60
INL 41 69 50 70 / 0 0 10 20
BRD 49 72 53 67 / 0 20 60 60
HYR 47 73 50 68 / 0 10 30 70
ASX 47 66 49 61 / 0 0 30 70
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
1102 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
.UPDATE...OVERALL...THE GOING FORECAST IS IN DECENT SHAPE WITH
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR BEST PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SW/W AREAS WITH
THE EVOLUTION OF THE ACTIVITY SIMILAR TO THE PREV TWO DAYS. AFTER
FURTHER INVESTIGATION OF THE MOST RECENT DATA...HAVE TWEAKED POPS
ACROSS THE CWA FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE SW WAS INCREASED TO LIKELY
VALUES WHILE THE E HALF WAS LOWERED TO 20% (ISOLATED) AS THERE WILL
BE A STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA AND THE BEST MOISTURE
ALONG WITH THE FAVORED LOW LEVEL COLD POOL PROPAGATION WILL HELP
FOCUS PRECIP OVER THE SW/W. THERE IS ALREADY A NICE ARCHING BAND
OVER S LA WITH A MORE DISTINCT SE/NW MOTION. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED...BUT GUSTY STORMS ARE LIKELY DUE TO MOMENTUM TRANSFER AND
SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZED COLD POOLS SLIDING TO THE NW. THE WEATHER
GRIDS WERE TIGHTENED UP A BIT TO SHOW CLEANER TIMING AND POPS WERE
LOWERED FOR THIS EVE TO SHOW LESS ACTIVITY AND A QUICKER END TO
WHAT MAY BE LINGERING. /CME/
&&
.AVIATION...A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE.
LIFR/IFR CATEGORY STRATUS/FOG ARE MIXING OUT WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND EXPECT VFR CATEGORY CU FIELD TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. BETTER
AFTN TSRA CHANCES WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL BE AT GLH/JAN/HKS...MOST
LIKELY AFTER 2000Z AND DIMINISHING WITH SUNSET. LOOK FOR A REPEAT
OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LIFR/IFR STRATUS MIXING OUT BY LATE TUES
MORNING. /EC/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE BUILDING UPPER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SE CONUS WILL BE AN INCREASING FACTOR FOR
OUR REGION WHILE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AND SRLY FLOW FEEDS
TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION AND POINTS FURTHER W. DUE TO GOOD
LOW LEVEL SRLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND GOOD MOISTURE/THETA E
ADVECTION TODAY...EXPECT A SIMILAR PATTERN TO YESTERDAY WITH RAIN A
LITTLE FURTHER E THAN GUIDANCE MAY BE INDICATING. HRRR WAS PICKING
UP ON THIS IDEA TOO AND INTRODUCED SOME POPS IN THE NE ALSO. HEAVY
RAIN/GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON BUT DUE
TO MEAGER LAPSE RATES EXPECT MAINLY SUB SEVERE WIND GUSTS AS A LINE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP IN S MS AND PROGRESS TO THE W/NW. LOW
LEVEL FLOW AROUND 15-20KTS WITH SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE SW IS
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY SO ESPECIALLY IN SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA WE CAN
NOT RULE OUT POTENTIAL FOR A STRAY SEVERE STORM...BUT EVEN HERE THIS
POTENTIAL IS TOO CONDITIONAL TO MENTION IN THE HWO. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ALONG AND SW OF A LINE FROM GREENVILLE TO
MERIDIAN BUT WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME STORMS IN NE MS. AS WE PROGRESS
INTO TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
GRADUALLY EXPAND/BUILD TO THE W MORE INTO THE REGION AND GRADUALLY
SHIFT RAIN CHANCES FURTHER W WHILE PUSHING STORM CHANCES INTO THE
DELTA REGION AS WE PROGRESS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. DUE TO SOME
DECENT WIND FIELDS ALOFT AND SIMILAR THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ALONG/W
OF I-55 CORRIDOR...CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME STRONG STORMS AND POSSIBLY
A SEVERE STORM OR TWO MAINLY W OF THE MS RIVER ON TUESDAY.
TROPICS: MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL
TRACK OF THE DEVELOPING TROPICAL SFC LOW IN THE GULF AND THAT IT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NW AND MOVE AROUND THE THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING INTO OUR REGION. DUE TO SOME GRADUALLY
INCREASING WIND FIELDS IN THE W/SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR FOR ANY POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN/SEVERE WEATHER IF THE
RIDGE DOES NOT BUILD IN AS STRONG AND THE SYSTEM TURNS SLIGHTLY MORE
TO THE N THAN W/NW.
FOR FORECAST ELEMENTS...WENT NEAR MAV FOR HIGHS/LOWS BUT MADE SOME
SMALL CHANGES. LOWERED HIGHS IN THE CENTRAL/SW AREAS SLIGHTLY DUE TO
BETTER RAIN/STORM CHANCES AND SIMILAR FOR TOMORROW ALONG/W OF I-55
DUE TO CLOUDS/RAIN CHANCES TO THE W AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS
IN. SKY COVER WENT NEAR RAW GUIDANCE. /DC/
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...WHEREVER EXACTLY THE
SYSTEM CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN THE GULF MAKES LANDFALL IT WILL
LIKELY BE HEADED NORTH TOWARD THE ARKLATEX REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN THE PATH OF THE SYSTEM REMAINING WELL WEST OF OUR
REGION AS IT RECURVES INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM THROUGH LATER THIS
WEEK IS GROWING. ENHANCED TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING FAR TO
THE EAST OF THE CIRCULATION WILL PROBABLY CONCENTRATE LOCAL RAIN
CHANCES WEDNESDAY IN MY FAR WESTERN ZONES WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGING INFLUENCE EXPANDING IN FROM THE EAST TRYING TO DRY THINGS
OUT AND HEAT THINGS UP ELSEWHERE. NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY SOME LOCATIONS EAST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR COULD SEE HIGHS
IN THE MID 90S ON WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS
MAY START BREAKING DOWN JUST A BIT WITH BETTER GULF MOISTURE
ADVECTION (DUE TO LESS RECIRCULATING OF DRY-ISH LOW LEVEL AIR)
CONTRIBUTING TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE TYPICALLY-
HOT 90 TO 94 DEGREE RANGE WITH PLENTY OF HUMIDITY TO INCREASE PEAK
INDICES TO NEAR 100.
MODEL CONSENSUS STILL SUGGESTS A DECENT COLD FRONT GAINING STEAM IN
THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST THIS COMING WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS
UNFORTUNATELY UNCERTAINTY NOW ON WHETHER IT WILL MAKE IT THIS FAR
SOUTH. IF IT DOES NOT GET THIS FAR SOUTH THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HEAT
TO REALLY BUILD GOING INTO NEXT WEEK WITH NOT ENOUGH RAIN AROUND TO
COOL THINGS OFF MUCH. LET US HOPE THE FRONT MAKES IT HERE. /BB/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 91 72 92 72 / 23 6 18 10
MERIDIAN 92 69 92 71 / 17 4 10 8
VICKSBURG 91 72 90 73 / 37 7 26 17
HATTIESBURG 91 73 92 71 / 26 4 18 8
NATCHEZ 89 73 88 73 / 56 17 29 16
GREENVILLE 93 74 91 74 / 31 6 24 21
GREENWOOD 92 73 92 73 / 24 6 13 13
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
CME/EC/DC/BB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
435 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE BUILDING UPPER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SE CONUS WILL BE AN INCREASING FACTOR FOR
OUR REGION WHILE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AND SRLY FLOW FEEDS
TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION AND POINTS FURTHER W. DUE TO GOOD
LOW LEVEL SRLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND GOOD MOISTURE/THETA E
ADVECTION TODAY...EXPECT A SIMILAR PATTERN TO YESTERDAY WITH RAIN A
LITTLE FURTHER E THAN GUIDANCE MAY BE INDICATING. HRRR WAS PICKING
UP ON THIS IDEA TOO AND INTRODUCED SOME POPS IN THE NE ALSO. HEAVY
RAIN/GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON BUT DUE
TO MEAGER LAPSE RATES EXPECT MAINLY SUB SEVERE WIND GUSTS AS A LINE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP IN S MS AND PROGRESS TO THE W/NW. LOW
LEVEL FLOW AROUND 15-20KTS WITH SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE SW IS
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY SO ESPECIALLY IN SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA WE CAN
NOT RULE OUT POTENTIAL FOR A STRAY SEVERE STORM...BUT EVEN HERE THIS
POTENTIAL IS TOO CONDITIONAL TO MENTION IN THE HWO. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ALONG AND SW OF A LINE FROM GREENVILLE TO
MERIDIAN BUT WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME STORMS IN NE MS. AS WE PROGRESS
INTO TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
GRADUALLY EXPAND/BUILD TO THE W MORE INTO THE REGION AND GRADUALLY
SHIFT RAIN CHANCES FURTHER W WHILE PUSHING STORM CHANCES INTO THE
DELTA REGION AS WE PROGRESS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. DUE TO SOME
DECENT WIND FIELDS ALOFT AND SIMILAR THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ALONG/W
OF I-55 CORRIDOR...CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME STRONG STORMS AND POSSIBLY
A SEVERE STORM OR TWO MAINLY W OF THE MS RIVER ON TUESDAY.
TROPICS: MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL
TRACK OF THE DEVELOPING TROPICAL SFC LOW IN THE GULF AND THAT IT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NW AND MOVE AROUND THE THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING INTO OUR REGION. DUE TO SOME GRADUALLY
INCREASING WIND FIELDS IN THE W/SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR FOR ANY POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN/SEVERE WEATHER IF THE
RIDGE DOES NOT BUILD IN AS STRONG AND THE SYSTEM TURNS SLIGHTLY MORE
TO THE N THAN W/NW.
FOR FORECAST ELEMENTS...WENT NEAR MAV FOR HIGHS/LOWS BUT MADE SOME
SMALL CHANGES. LOWERED HIGHS IN THE CENTRAL/SW AREAS SLIGHTLY DUE TO
BETTER RAIN/STORM CHANCES AND SIMILAR FOR TOMORROW ALONG/W OF I-55
DUE TO CLOUDS/RAIN CHANCES TO THE W AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS
IN. SKY COVER WENT NEAR RAW GUIDANCE. /DC/
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...WHEREVER EXACTLY THE
SYSTEM CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN THE GULF MAKES LANDFALL IT WILL
LIKELY BE HEADED NORTH TOWARD THE ARKLATEX REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN THE PATH OF THE SYSTEM REMAINING WELL WEST OF OUR
REGION AS IT RECURVES INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM THROUGH LATER THIS
WEEK IS GROWING. ENHANCED TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING FAR TO
THE EAST OF THE CIRCULATION WILL PROBABLY CONCENTRATE LOCAL RAIN
CHANCES WEDNESDAY IN MY FAR WESTERN ZONES WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGING INFLUENCE EXPANDING IN FROM THE EAST TRYING TO DRY THINGS
OUT AND HEAT THINGS UP ELSEWHERE. NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY SOME LOCATIONS EAST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR COULD SEE HIGHS
IN THE MID 90S ON WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS
MAY START BREAKING DOWN JUST A BIT WITH BETTER GULF MOISTURE
ADVECTION (DUE TO LESS RECIRCULATING OF DRY-ISH LOW LEVEL AIR)
CONTRIBUTING TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE TYPICALLY-
HOT 90 TO 94 DEGREE RANGE WITH PLENTY OF HUMIDITY TO INCREASE PEAK
INDICES TO NEAR 100.
MODEL CONSENSUS STILL SUGGESTS A DECENT COLD FRONT GAINING STEAM IN
THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST THIS COMING WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS
UNFORTUNATELY UNCERTAINTY NOW ON WHETHER IT WILL MAKE IT THIS FAR
SOUTH. IF IT DOES NOT GET THIS FAR SOUTH THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HEAT
TO REALLY BUILD GOING INTO NEXT WEEK WITH NOT ENOUGH RAIN AROUND TO
COOL THINGS OFF MUCH. LET US HOPE THE FRONT MAKES IT HERE. /BB/
&&
.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE KGLH/KGWO/KJAN/KHKS WHILE SOME LOW
CIGS/VIS ARE IN THE VICINITY OF KMEI...WHILE LIFR CONDS ARE IN THE
KHBG WITH LOW CIGS/VIS. EXPCT THESE SOME LOW STRATUS AND CIGS TO
MOVE IN AFTER 15/10Z AT KJAN/KHKS AND SOME MVFR/IFR CONDS BEFORE
CONDS IMPROVE AFTER 14Z. SOME OF THE FOG/LOW STRATUS AND IFR/LIFR
CONDS WILL REMAIN AT KMEI/KHBG UNTIL AROUND 15/15-16Z TIMEFRAME.
EXPECT WINDS FROM THE S AROUND 7-10KTS THIS AFTN. SOME VCTS ARE PSBL
AROUND KHBG/KJAN/KHKS AROUND 15/18-20Z. /DC/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 91 72 92 72 / 33 13 18 10
MERIDIAN 92 69 92 71 / 25 12 10 8
VICKSBURG 91 72 90 73 / 37 22 26 17
HATTIESBURG 91 73 92 71 / 36 13 18 8
NATCHEZ 89 73 88 73 / 50 35 29 16
GREENVILLE 91 74 91 74 / 28 13 24 21
GREENWOOD 92 73 92 73 / 24 12 13 13
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
DC/BB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
836 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2015
.UPDATE:
Issued at 836 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2015
Went ahead and added Boone and Moniteau to the flash flood watch
as parts of these counties have received between 0.5 and 1 inch of
rainfall so far this evening. Theses two counties should see 2-4+
inches of rainfall over the next few days making flash flooding a
real possibility. Otherwise, going forecast looks on track through
tonight as showers and thunderstorms should continue. The latest
runs of the HRRR continues to show precipitation regenerating over
the central and southern part of the CWA through the night, albeit
with weakening reflectivity. The RAP continues to show strong low
level moisture convergence developing on the nose of a 30kt low
level jet over the CWA.
Britt
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2015
The warm and moisture rich air mass poised along and south of the front
has responded to diurnal heating with SBCAPES of 2000-3000 J/KG throughout
the warm sector, supporting the development of scattered to numerous
showers and thundrstorms. The 12z KSGF raob shows the moisture continuing
to deepen and increase with PW now at 2.01 inches with a tall skinny
CAPE profile, characteristics favorable for very efficient rainfall
production and high rainfall rates which has been observed with
some of the current storms. The models show the boundary lifting
northward tonight but I`m not all convinced of that solution given
the high pressure to our north across the upper MS Valley. Regardless,
several weak disturbances will track within the southwest flow
aloft across the region and that combined with a broad region of
lift and moisture convergence associated with the anticyclonically
curved and veering southwesterly LLJ will continue to support
waves of showers and thunderstorms tonight across mainly the
southern half of the CWA.
Glass
.LONG TERM: (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2015
Continued waves of showers and thunderstorms across the southern
half of the CWA and the remnants of TS Bill are expected through
the end of the week with potential for serious flooding, both flash
flooding on small creeks and streams and potential for major flood
levels of some of the larger rivers.
The overall situation has changed little leading to increasing
confidence. Still unknown will be the exact path of the remnant
tropical low. From Wednesday into Thursday a parade of disturbances
will track E/NE across the southern half of the CWA within the
southwest flow aloft on the periphery of the upper high in the
southeastern U.S.. At the same time the south-southwesterly LLJ
will modulate periodically veering and strengthening, focusing a
broad region of lift across the southern half of the CWA. The
combo of the these features will result in continued waves of
showers and thunderstorms with the high moisture content supporting
high rainfall rates and heavy rainfall totals. The models are also
suggestive of an arcing convergent zone across southern MO
emanating from the remnant low in the Thursday night-Friday time
frame which could further enhance the rainfall potential. The
current NHC official forecast has the low moving across south-
central and southeast MO into southern IL Friday into Friday
evening which appears to be in the center of the guidance suite.
It appears by Saturday morning the remnant low will have passed to
our east with drier weather expected until another cold front
enters the area late Saturday night into Sunday. Still thinking we
will see a swath of rainfall averaging 5-7 inches over the next 5
days centered near a Rolla-Waterloo-Salem axis, with the highest
rainfall period centered in the Thursday night-Friday time frame.
Local rainfall totals could be quite a bit higher. Have expanded
the Flash Flood Watch until 7 pm Friday evening as a result of
this anticipated scenario.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2015
Periods of rain and embedded thunderstorms will continue overnight
as stalled front begins to slowly lift north. Expect MVFR and
occasionally IFR conditions. Rain should diminish tomorrow morning
before refiring with heat of the day tomorrow.
Specifics for KSTL:
Rain will continue much of the night with some embedded
thunderstorms. Expect MVFR to IFR conditions all night before the
rain diminishes tomorrow morning. Thunderstorms will redevelop
tomorrow afternoon.
CVKING
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday evening FOR Boone MO-Callaway
MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-
Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Moniteau MO-Montgomery
MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-St. Charles MO-St. Francois MO-St.
Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Warren MO-
Washington MO.
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday evening FOR Bond IL-Calhoun IL-
Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-
Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-Randolph IL-
St. Clair IL-Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1139 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2015
.UPDATE:
Issued at 1001 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2015
Still expecting scattered showers and thunderstorms the rest of
the night over the area. Currently there is one area moving east
from central Missouri and another moving north from south central
Missouri. Latest runs of the RAP show pockets of low level
moisture convergence over the region throughout the night which
justifies the continued chance. Otherwise, do expect much fall in
temperatures as current readings are close to the dewpoints.
Conditions will remain very humid.
Britt
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2015
Diurnal heating of the very moist air mass across the region has
yielded SBCAPES of 2000-2500 J/KG this afternoon and scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms. Anomalously high water content
with PWs above 90th percentile at 1.8+ inches is resulting in very
efficient rainfall production and have seen a few reports of rates
in excess of 4 in/hr, however longevity has been only on the order
of less than 30 minutes given scattered coverage. There are no
evident upper level features aiding current storms, thus expect
them to follow a strong diurnally driven cycle with coverage
rapidly decreasing early this evening. From the later evening into
the overnight hours have dramatically reduced pops the southern
half of the CWA and highest in the chance range across the northeast
third of the CWA along the periphery of the stronger southwesterly
and slightly confluent low level flow.
Glass
.LONG TERM: (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2015
A very wet pattern is still in the offing for the upcoming week
with the best apparent time frame for widespread heavy rainfall
in the Tuesday-Wednesday Night time frame. A sw-ne oriented cold
front will be encroaching on the northern CWA on Monday afternoon
and slowly progressing southward Monday night into Tuesday when
best indications are it will become quasi-stationary bi-secting
the CWA. Meanwhile during this same time frame, a steady series
of weak disturbances within the sw flow aloft on the periphery of
the upper level high, combined with the moisture rich/buoyant air
mass across the region and the front will result in increasingly
widespread showers and thunderstorms. Instability and deep layer
shear across the region on Monday afternoon and early evening will
be sufficient for possible pulse storms and multicell clusters
with a damaging wind threat, while the high moisture content will
continue to support heavy downpours.
Will probably eventually need a flash flood watch in the
aforementioned Tuesday-Wednesday night period. Unknown is the
impact of current TD#1 near the Yucatan. Models diverge on the
speed and location but the general consensus is this will strengthen
and track NW into TX then track north with the remnant low moving
northeast along the periphery of the upper high centered in the
southeastern U.S.. A general range of solutions has the center
generally moving across southeast MO and southern IL on Thursday
with greatest impacts along and to the right of the center. High
level moisture however will provide a boost to the already high
H2O content in the midweek time frame and the aforementioned heavy
rainfall potential.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1134 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2015
Activity has diminished once again, though some scattered activity
not out of question for KCOU and KUIN overnight. Otherwise, best
chances will be during the day on Monday everywhere but hard to
pin down coverage and timing, so just have vicinity thunderstorms
after 18z Monday. Then dry things out after 03z Tuesday. As for
winds, to remain from the south to southwest through the forecast
period, becoming light and variable by Monday evening.
Specifics for KSTL:
Best chances will be during the day on Monday but hard to pin down
coverage and timing, so just have vicinity thunderstorms after 18z
Monday. Then dry things out after 03z Tuesday. As for winds, to
remain from the south to southwest through the forecast period,
becoming light and variable by 03z Tuesday.
Byrd
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
852 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015
.UPDATE...
WEAK SHORTWAVE IN A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW MOVED INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON AND GENERATED SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
CAPES ROSE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND
40KTS WHICH WAS ENOUGH TO MAKE THE STORMS PRETTY STRONG. A COUPLE
OF THE STORMS DID TURN SEVERE. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE DOES
DECREASE THE CAPE LATE THIS EVENING...BUT HOLDS ONTO THE SHEAR.
WOULD EXPECT A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND WITH THE CONVECTION AS IT
MOVES EAST TO SOUTHEAST...AND ARE SEEING THAT. LAST BIT OF
THUNDERSTORMS NOW OVER SOUTHEAST BIG HORN COUNTY AND SHERIDAN
COUNTY...WHICH IS THE REMNANTS OF THE STORM THAT MOVED THROUGH
SOUTHWEST YELLOWSTONE COUNTY. MORE STABLE HAS MOVED INTO THE
NORTHWEST AND HAVE THUS REMOVED POPS FROM MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL
MONTANA. RAISED POPS OVER SHERIDAN COUNTY TO REFLECT RADAR TRENDS.
THE SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT...AND THUS AGREE WITH
ZERO POPS OVERNIGHT FOR ALL BUT MOUNTAINOUS LOCATIONS. TWH
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...
WEAK CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL MT IN RESPONSE TO AFTN HEATING AND AREA OF PV IN WNW FLOW
ALOFT. PRESSURE FALLS NOTED IN SOUTH CENTRAL MT WILL HELP TO SHIFT
WINDS IN OUR CENTRAL PARTS TO THE EAST...SETTING UP A CONVERGENT
AREA WHICH SHOULD BE FAVORED FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AS ACTIVITY BEGINS
TO SPREAD OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN. BILLINGS DEW PT HAS FALLEN TO 45F
SO WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE THE IMPACTS FROM DRIER AIR SPREADING IN
FROM THE WEST. TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONVECTION
OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THOUGH THE LOWER DEW PTS ARE KEEPING
SBCAPES AT MODEST VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG AS OF THE 19Z
MESOANALYSIS...SO TSTM ACTIVITY MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS HIGH RES
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. PEAK POTENTIAL FOR BILLINGS WILL BE
22-01Z. OUR EAST IS STILL SEEING EFFECTS FROM LARGE AREA OF
STRATUS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND BAKER IS STILL IN THE
50S...SO HAVE SCALED BACK POPS INTO THIS EVENING. FOCUS OF
ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT 6-8 HRS WILL BE OVER OUR WEST HALF. ONLY
OTHER ISSUE TONIGHT IS FOG IN OUR EAST. DEW PT SPREAD IS ONLY 4F
AT BAKER AND HRRR IS SUGGESTIVE OF FOG LATE TONIGHT SO WILL ADD
PATCHY FOG TO FALLON/CARTER.
SFC RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SHIFT SOUTH TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE ADVECTION TO COMMENCE UP THE HIGH
PLAINS. WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ZONAL RIDGING BUT WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE AND EVENING FRONTAL PASSAGE WE SHOULD SEE ISOLD TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON
WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE WITHIN THE MORE
DEEPLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA OVER WY/
SD/NE. TEMPS TOMORROW SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S.
MORE INTERESTING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR US EMERGES THURSDAY AS
WE CONTINUE TO MOIST ADVECT ALLOWING FOR PWATS TO RISE TO NEAR OR
A BIT ABOVE AN INCH ACROSS OUR EAST. NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A
LATE DAY PACIFIC SHORTWAVE BUT THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF RUNS HAVE
TRENDED WEAKER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE...ALLOWING FOR
700MB TEMPS TO RISE TO NEAR +14C IN OUR SOUTH. AS A RESULT IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE NORTH
OF OUR CWA...OR AT THE VERY LEAST ACROSS OUR NORTH AND EAST PARTS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY TO BE
HIGHEST ACROSS OUR NORTH. IF THE NAM IS CORRECT IN SHOWING 2000+
J/KG OF CAPE ALONG WITH PLENTIFUL SHEAR...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT
AN EPISODE OF SEVERE WX. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL
IN HWO AND GRAPHIC. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL TAKE ANOTHER STEP UP
WITH HIGHS FURTHER INTO THE 80S ON THURSDAY...AND MAYBE NEAR 90F
IN OUR SOUTH SUCH AS NEAR SHERIDAN.
JKL
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...
EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT TO END THE WEEK INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND BUT DIVERGE BY MONDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A ZONAL FLOW WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AS AN
UPPER LOW MOVES ONTO THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A FEW
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING A CONTINUED CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ZONAL SUNDAY WITH SOME DRIER AIR POSSIBLY MOVING
INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN LESSENING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LOW AND TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT DIFFER IN TIMING BUT SOMETIME
DURING THE MONDAY OR TUESDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE
AREA. AS A RESULT...THE MONDAY/TUESDAY PERIOD LOOKS TO HAVE THE
BEST SHOT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S FOR MOST
DAYS. HOOLEY
&&
.AVIATION...
AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS SHERIDAN
COUNTY THROUGH LATE EVENING. THIS COULD BRIEFLY PRODUCE MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 KNOTS AT SHERIDAN.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. REIMER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 053/082 058/085 060/082 056/076 052/080 057/087 058/082
12/T 23/T 34/T 43/T 21/B 11/B 12/T
LVM 047/081 050/083 053/082 048/074 046/081 050/087 051/083
22/T 33/T 33/T 42/T 11/B 11/B 12/T
HDN 053/084 056/086 058/084 056/076 050/080 055/088 057/083
22/T 23/T 34/T 44/T 21/B 11/B 12/T
MLS 053/082 059/083 060/083 055/076 050/075 055/084 055/080
13/T 34/T 44/T 44/T 22/T 12/T 22/T
4BQ 051/081 057/083 059/083 055/076 049/075 054/087 054/080
23/T 34/T 44/T 44/T 21/B 11/B 11/B
BHK 047/078 055/077 058/082 055/075 049/073 052/081 054/076
12/T 34/T 54/T 44/T 22/T 12/T 22/T
SHR 049/079 053/086 055/081 052/073 047/075 050/086 052/080
43/T 22/T 24/T 44/T 31/B 11/B 12/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
728 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
DEVELOPING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE CLEARING
SKIES TONIGHT AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES. THIS TREND OF DRY WEATHER AND
COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY...AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THIS
UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 727 PM EDT TUESDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/WX, SKY AND
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS THROUGH 03Z. SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW WORKING ITS
WAY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS, AND THERE`S BEEN ENOUGH LIFT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY TO SUPPORT A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. MESOANALYSIS
BASED ON RAP FIELDS SUGGESTS CAPE VALUES UNDER 800 J/KG IN THE
AREA OF CLEARING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS INTO THE NORTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THAT`S LEADING TO RELATIVELY WEAK UPDRAFTS AND
STORM TOPS ROUGHLY UNDER 20 KFT, NOT SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
LIGHTNING PRODUCTION. I STILL CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER, THOUGH THREAT OF THIS WILL BE QUICKLY
LESSENING AFTER SUNSET. THEREFORE, OPTED TO ADJUST POPS/WX TO GO
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 01Z, AND
THEN SHOWERS THEREAFTER.
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TO BE MARKED BY INCREASE IN NORTH WINDS AS
WELL AS A SHARP DROPOFF IN SURFACE DEWPOINTS - ALREADY IN THE
U40S/L50S - TO ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. MID 60S CROSSOVER
TEMPS SHOULD BE EASILY MET AND GROUND IS WET, THOUGH COMBINATION
OF BL DRYING AND FLOW ABOVE 20 KTS MAY PRECLUDE VALLEY FOG FROM
DEVELOPING UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...
FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS EVENING WILL BE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING AND FOG
POTENTIAL. WATER VAPOR SHOWS LARGE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR
ALOFT APPROACHING THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS AFTN BEHIND S/W
ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PLUME OF PW`S AROUND 1.75". THIS
DRY SLOT WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD OUR REGION TONIGHT...WITH ANY
LEFTOVER SHOWERS DISSIPATING AROUND SUNSET FROM THE LACK OF
MOISTURE ALOFT AND LIMITED INSTABILITY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
CHC POPS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA THRU 02Z. SFC HIGH
PRES WEST OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THRU 06Z WILL CONT TO
PRODUCE NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 15 MPH...LIMITING FOG
PRODUCTION. HOWEVER...EXPECT GRADIENT TO DECREASE AFT 06Z...WITH
FOG DEVELOPMENT LIKELY ACROSS THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF THE DACKS AND
PARTS OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL AND
SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AREAL COVERAGE
OF FOG ACRS VT VALLEYS AS SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS
AND GOOD MIXING THRU 09Z...SOME EXPECT PATCHY FOG NEAR SUNRISE.
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S COLDER VALLEYS OF THE
DACKS/NEK TO MID 50S CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL SYNOPTIC
SCALE PATTERN EXPECTED THRU THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL FEATURE
FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH THE NE CONUS DOMINATED BY THE
NORTHERN STREAM JET. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT CHANGEABLE WEATHER
CONDITIONS EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH A COUPLE DRY
DAYS...FOLLOWED BY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. LIKE THE
PREVIOUS 7 TO 10 DAYS...INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL KEEP ORGANIZED SVR WEATHER THREAT AT A
MINIMUM. 1021MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON WEDS
WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS RANGE BTWN 9-11C ACROSS OUR CWA...SUPPORTING
HIGHS IN THE M/U 60S TO MID 70S WARMER VALLEYS...WITH DRY SFC
DWPTS. AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED...EXPECT SOME FAIR WX
CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN ON WEDS AFTN. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH AT 4 TO 8 MPH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY SHIFT INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY 12Z THURSDAY IN THE FAST
CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. THE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THIS SFC
HIGH WILL HELP PUSH WARMER TEMPS AND INCREASED MOISTURE BACK INTO
OUR CWA ON THURSDAY. LATEST 12Z NAM/GFS SHOW A NARROW AXIS OF 400
TO 800 J/KG OF CAPE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN NY ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRNT. LIKELY MANY OTHER
FROPA THIS WARM SEASON...THE INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT OVERALL
ORGANIZED SVR WX THREAT ACROSS OUR CWA. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS 0 TO
6 KM SHEAR OF 40 TO 45 KNOTS ASSOCIATED WITH 500MB JET OF 50 TO 60
KNOTS ACRS OUR NORTHERN CWA ON THURS EVENING...BUT BEST
INSTABILITY AXIS IS LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC
STATES. WILL CONT TO MENTION CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED....ASSOCIATED WITH GOOD HEIGHT FALLS
FROM DIGGING TROF AND SFC COLD FRNT. A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF TIMING OF FRONT IS EARLIER AND GREATER
INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP ACROSS OUR CWA. GIVEN...STRONG MID TO
UPPER LEVEL FLOW...GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT VERY
ISOLATED. PW VALUES SURGE BTWN 1.25 AND 1.50" AHEAD OF APPROACHING
BOUNDARY...SO A FEW LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWN POURS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH ANY CONVECTION ON THURSDAY
EVENING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM SEVERAL DEGREES WITH VALUES BTWN
12-14C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE M/U 70S MTNS TO LOWER 80S
VALLEYS. TEMPS COULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER IF MORE SUN
DEVELOPS THAN CURRENTLY FCST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 338 PM EDT TUESDAY...
THE EXTENDED BEGINS WITH A COLD FRONT UNDERWAY ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING ON FRIDAY
COMING TO AN END BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE
REGION HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL USHER IN SLIGHT
COOLER AIR AS MAX TEMPS WILL WARM ONLY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL ALLOW
FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SO I`VE GONE A BIT BELOW
GUIDANCE FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. IF THE TRENDS
CONTINUE WITH COOLER TEMPS DURING THE DAY, THEN ITS POSSIBLE WE
COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME FROST OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. CURRENTLY
FORECASTED TEMPS ARE MID TO UPPER 40S WITH LOW 40S IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. INTO SATURDAY THE HIGH WILL
SLIDE TO THE EAST AND DEVELOP MODERATE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WHICH
WILL SERVE TO REBOUND TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S.
THE NEXT WEATHER FEATURE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LIFTING FROM THE MIDWEST AND COMBINING WITH A 700MB SHORTWAVE
DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA. AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MENTIONED
THE MODELS DIFFER ON DETAILS OF TIMING/TRACK WHICH IS PRETTY
TYPICAL FOR STRONG ZONAL FLOW REGIMES GIVEN HOW QUICKLY SYSTEMS
CAN SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION. THE NET RESULT IS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES FAIRLY SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF SHOWERS THRU 03Z,
THEN VFR WITH MVFR/IFR MIST INTO OVERNIGHT HRS, BECOMING ALL VFR
BY MORNING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST ALONG A SURFACE COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
(A POSSIBLE RUMBLE OF THUNDER) MOVE EAST THROUGH 03Z WITH RAPID
CLEARING OF SKIES IN ITS WAKE. STRONG NORTHERLY GRADIENT SHOULD
INITIALLY BRING AN INCREASE IN NORTH WINDS (10-12 KTS) THROUGH
MIDNIGHT, THEN WINDS BEGIN TO TAPER DOWN AS GRADIENT RELAXES. I`VE
SHOWN 2-4 SM BR AT MSS, SLK AND MPV BUT NOT UNTIL LATER IN THE
OVERNIGHT AS DRYING AND SUFFICIENTLY STRONG ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD HOLD OFF ON FOG DEVELOPMENT.
ANY MORNING FOG/MIST BURNS OFF AFTER 12Z. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO BUILD EASTWARD WITH VFR EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY, WITH LIGHT
NORTH WINDS.
OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...MORNING IFR/LIFR FOG WILL
GIVE WAY TO DAYTIME VFR AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION.
18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.
12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 725 PM EDT TUESDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR TONIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT
10 TO 20 THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WITH WAVES
BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE BROAD LAKE.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...LOCONTO
MARINE...RJS/LOCONTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
342 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THIS. THIS SYSTEM WILL
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL BRING AN ANOTHER CHANCE AT
POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. THERE IS ALSO
SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE
DAY BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA BY
MID WEEK WILL WE RETURN TO DRIER CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1246 AM EDT MONDAY...JUST A FEW TWEAKS TO THE GOING
FORECAST.
RADAR SHOWING A GROWING AREA OF SHOWERS EXTENDING WELL NORTH INTO
ONTARIO THAT ARE STEADILY MOVING EAST AND ARE NOW ENTERING THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS RESULTING FROM WARM FRONTAL LIFT. SHOULD
START RAINING LIGHTLY AT KMSS AND KSLK WITHIN THE HOUR. SHOWERS
SHOULD MAINLY BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE, THOUGH THERE ARE SIGNS THAT
THERE COULD BE SOME MODERATE SHOWERS AS WELL. LATEST HRRR USED TO
AUGMENT THE LOCATION AND TIME OF THE PRECIPITATION.
LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 AS CLOUDS
AND PRECIP WILL PREVENT TOO MUCH OF A DROP.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT SUNDAY...MONDAY MORNING WILL SERVE AS THE LULL
BETWEEN THE IMPULSES OF ENERGY FROM THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. MOVE OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WE WILL SEE
SOME SLIGHT DRIER AIR FEEDING IN FROM THE WEST AS A NORTHERN
STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN CANADA BEGINS TO PHASE
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE NET RESULT
FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY IS THAT THERE WILL BE BREAKS DURING THE DAY
WITH NO SHOWERS. THE POTENTIALLY PATCHY CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW
ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR SOME SURFACE HEATING TO
DEVELOP WHICH WILL BEGIN TO UNSTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. AS THE
MOISTURE FROM THE PHASING SYSTEMS MOVES INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY SOME CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AND WITH 30-40 KTS OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND 300-500 J/KG OF INSTABILITY THERE COULD BE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. AT THE MOMENT I DON`T FEEL THE OVERLAP IS
ALL THAT GREAT BUT SPC HAS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE MAIN THREAT AS STRONG TO
DAMAGING WINDS. AS OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE I HAVEN`T INCLUDED ANY
MENTION OF ENHANCED WORDING FOR THE SHOWERS ALONG THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY.
TUESDAY WILL BE THE MORE INTERESTING OF THE TWO DAYS IN THE EARLY
WEEK AS THE PHASED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE
REGION. ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE FORECAST REGION AS THE FRONT DRAWS CLOSER TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THAT ENERGY AND DYNAMIC FORCING WILL DESTABILIZE
MOST OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
ALONG WITH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AS ONCE AGAIN PATCHES OF
SCATTED CLOUDS WILL BE OVER THE AREA. AS THE FRONT MOVES IN CLOSER
A STRONG 50-70KT JET WILL BE PRESENT AT 500MB. THIS COMBINED WITH
THE LIGHT WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL CAUSE STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. AS THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE PHASED FRONT MOVES DOWN FROM
CANADA THERE WILL BE DECENT CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WITH THE NAM
FORECASTING 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE WITH MODERATE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AS WELL. THIS COMBINATION OF LIFT FROM THE FRONT,
INSTABILITY FROM THE SCATTERED CLOUDS AND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW
LEVELS COULD LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR VERMONT AND PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK. TIMING
RIGHT NOW BASED ON THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
CONVECTION WILL BEGIN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE THROUGH
IN THE EARLY EVENING. WITH ONLY MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EXPECT THE MAIN THREAT TO ONCE AGAIN BE DAMAGING WINDS WHERE SOME
TREES OR POWER LINES COULD BE BLOWN DOWN. THERE IS INCREASED
CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS SO WITH THIS UPDATE
I DID GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE THE MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS IN THE
FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE A CHALLENGE BASED ON WHERE THE DRY
SLOT IN BETWEEN THE WAVES OF ENERGY WILL REACH. AS OF THE 12Z
SUITE OF GUIDANCE I ANTICIPATE THE DRIER AIR WONT REACH THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SO EXPECT A ROUGHLY 10-15 DEGREE SPREAD IN MAX
TEMPS FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN THE
UPPER 70S AND SOUTHERN VERMONT IN THE MID TO LOW 60S. OVERNIGHT ON
MONDAY TEMPS WILL HOLD FAIRLY NORMAL IN IN THE MID 50S EAST OF THE
GREENS AND IN THE LOW 60S IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. THEN
TUESDAY WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLEARING THERE IS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TO ALLOW FOR DAYTIME HEATING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
BUT THE IDEA WILL BE THAT TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE
THE FRONT FINALLY CLEARS THE AREA BRINGING SOME COOLER AIR FROM
THE NORTH DROPPING TEMPERATURES TUESDAY EVENING BY ABOUT 3-5
DEGREES FROM MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE PATTERN CHANGE EVIDENT AS WE
PROGRESS FROM MID-WEEK ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH NRN NY/NEW
ENGLAND REMAINING EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ZONAL WESTERLIES. THIS WILL
ALLOW WEAK NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PASSAGES TO OCCUR EVERY 2 TO 3
DAYS THAT WILL FOSTER ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES BUT KEEP EXCESSIVE
HEAT WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. FORECAST TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF LATE SPRING SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD,
SHOWING HIGHS IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60 WITH CUSTOMARY VARIABILITY. THE BEST SHOT OF SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDER WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A
WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND THEN AGAIN BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND ENERGY STREAMING EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL SOLUTIONS ARE SUFFERING
TO SOME EXTENT FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE LARGE-SCALE MASS
FIELDS OF THIS LATTER SYSTEM. THUS QPF/POP/TEMP FORECASTS HAVE
SLIGHTLY LOWER CONFIDENCE AS WE PROGRESS FROM SATURDAY ONWARD INTO
SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...MIX OF VFR/MVFR TODAY WITH PATCHY LIGHT RAIN
THROUGH 12-14Z TIME FRAME, ENDING THEREAFTER. BLOCKED FLOW AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP BKN/OVC SKIES ACROSS THE
AREA AFTER 12Z WITH SOME LINGERING PATCHY MVFR POSSIBLE DESPITE
-RA ENDING. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT, THOUGH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT KPBG AND AT KBTV/KRUT/KMPV.
OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
06Z TUESDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR RAIN SHOWERS,
ESPECIALLY KRUT.
00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE. PATCHY
MVFR/IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KRUT/KSLK/KMPV.
12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH SCT MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
RAIN SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.
06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN BR/FG, HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE AT KMPV/KSLK.
12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MVFR/SCATTERED IFR IN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...NEILES/SISSON
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/MV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
119 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THIS. THIS SYSTEM WILL
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL BRING AN ANOTHER CHANCE AT
POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. THERE IS ALSO
SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE
DAY BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA BY
MID WEEK WILL WE RETURN TO DRIER CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1246 AM EDT MONDAY...JUST A FEW TWEAKS TO THE GOING
FORECAST.
RADAR SHOWING A GROWING AREA OF SHOWERS EXTENDING WELL NORTH INTO
ONTARIO THAT ARE STEADILY MOVING EAST AND ARE NOW ENTERING THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS RESULTING FROM WARM FRONTAL LIFT. SHOULD
START RAINING LIGHTLY AT KMSS AND KSLK WITHIN THE HOUR. SHOWERS
SHOULD MAINLY BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE, THOUGH THERE ARE SIGNS THAT
THERE COULD BE SOME MODERATE SHOWERS AS WELL. LATEST HRRR USED TO
AUGMENT THE LOCATION AND TIME OF THE PRECIPITATION.
LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 AS CLOUDS
AND PRECIP WILL PREVENT TOO MUCH OF A DROP.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT SUNDAY...MONDAY MORNING WILL SERVE AS THE LULL
BETWEEN THE IMPULSES OF ENERGY FROM THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. MOVE OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WE WILL SEE
SOME SLIGHT DRIER AIR FEEDING IN FROM THE WEST AS A NORTHERN
STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN CANADA BEGINS TO PHASE
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE NET RESULT
FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY IS THAT THERE WILL BE BREAKS DURING THE DAY
WITH NO SHOWERS. THE POTENTIALLY PATCHY CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW
ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR SOME SURFACE HEATING TO
DEVELOP WHICH WILL BEGIN TO UNSTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. AS THE
MOISTURE FROM THE PHASING SYSTEMS MOVES INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY SOME CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AND WITH 30-40 KTS OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND 300-500 J/KG OF INSTABILITY THERE COULD BE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. AT THE MOMENT I DON`T FEEL THE OVERLAP IS
ALL THAT GREAT BUT SPC HAS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE MAIN THREAT AS STRONG TO
DAMAGING WINDS. AS OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE I HAVEN`T INCLUDED ANY
MENTION OF ENHANCED WORDING FOR THE SHOWERS ALONG THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY.
TUESDAY WILL BE THE MORE INTERESTING OF THE TWO DAYS IN THE EARLY
WEEK AS THE PHASED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE
REGION. ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE FORECAST REGION AS THE FRONT DRAWS CLOSER TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THAT ENERGY AND DYNAMIC FORCING WILL DESTABILIZE
MOST OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
ALONG WITH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AS ONCE AGAIN PATCHES OF
SCATTED CLOUDS WILL BE OVER THE AREA. AS THE FRONT MOVES IN CLOSER
A STRONG 50-70KT JET WILL BE PRESENT AT 500MB. THIS COMBINED WITH
THE LIGHT WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL CAUSE STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. AS THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE PHASED FRONT MOVES DOWN FROM
CANADA THERE WILL BE DECENT CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WITH THE NAM
FORECASTING 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE WITH MODERATE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AS WELL. THIS COMBINATION OF LIFT FROM THE FRONT,
INSTABILITY FROM THE SCATTERED CLOUDS AND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW
LEVELS COULD LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR VERMONT AND PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK. TIMING
RIGHT NOW BASED ON THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
CONVECTION WILL BEGIN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE THROUGH
IN THE EARLY EVENING. WITH ONLY MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EXPECT THE MAIN THREAT TO ONCE AGAIN BE DAMAGING WINDS WHERE SOME
TREES OR POWER LINES COULD BE BLOWN DOWN. THERE IS INCREASED
CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS SO WITH THIS UPDATE
I DID GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE THE MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS IN THE
FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE A CHALLENGE BASED ON WHERE THE DRY
SLOT IN BETWEEN THE WAVES OF ENERGY WILL REACH. AS OF THE 12Z
SUITE OF GUIDANCE I ANTICIPATE THE DRIER AIR WONT REACH THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SO EXPECT A ROUGHLY 10-15 DEGREE SPREAD IN MAX
TEMPS FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN THE
UPPER 70S AND SOUTHERN VERMONT IN THE MID TO LOW 60S. OVERNIGHT ON
MONDAY TEMPS WILL HOLD FAIRLY NORMAL IN IN THE MID 50S EAST OF THE
GREENS AND IN THE LOW 60S IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. THEN
TUESDAY WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLEARING THERE IS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TO ALLOW FOR DAYTIME HEATING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
BUT THE IDEA WILL BE THAT TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE
THE FRONT FINALLY CLEARS THE AREA BRINGING SOME COOLER AIR FROM
THE NORTH DROPPING TEMPERATURES TUESDAY EVENING BY ABOUT 3-5
DEGREES FROM MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT SUNDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE REGION AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT DRY AND HOLDS
OFF BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. WILL OPT
TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
FROM CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE KEPT IN CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
CANADA ON FRIDAY AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
MODELS SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODELS
SHOW INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AND
HAS A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER AND BRING THIS FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY.
INTERESTINGLY THE ECMWF MODEL TAKES THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE JUST
EAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVES IT
NORTHWEST INTO TEXAS...AND THEN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BEFORE TURNING IT NORTHEAST UP THE OHIO VALLEY. THE ECMWF
HAS THE REMNANTS OF THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY NEXT SUNDAY. EITHER WAY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS WANT TO BRING IN PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THUS...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR FOR SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...MIX OF VFR/MVFR TODAY WITH PATCHY LIGHT RAIN
THROUGH 12-14Z TIME FRAME, ENDING THEREAFTER. BLOCKED FLOW AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP BKN/OVC SKIES ACROSS THE
AREA AFTER 12Z WITH SOME LINGERING PATCHY MVFR POSSIBLE DESPITE
-RA ENDING. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT, THOUGH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT KPBG AND AT KBTV/KRUT/KMPV.
OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
06Z TUESDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR RAIN SHOWERS,
ESPECIALLY KRUT.
00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE. PATCHY
MVFR/IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KRUT/KSLK/KMPV.
12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH SCT MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
RAIN SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.
06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN BR/FG, HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE AT KMPV/KSLK.
12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MVFR/SCATTERED IFR IN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...NEILES/SISSON
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...JMG/MV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1247 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THIS. THIS SYSTEM WILL
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL BRING AN ANOTHER CHANCE AT
POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. THERE IS ALSO
SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE
DAY BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA BY
MID WEEK WILL WE RETURN TO DRIER CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1246 AM EDT MONDAY...JUST A FEW TWEAKS TO THE GOING
FORECAST.
RADAR SHOWING A GROWING AREA OF SHOWERS EXTENDING WELL NORTH INTO
ONTARIO THAT ARE STEADILY MOVING EAST AND ARE NOW ENTERING THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS RESULTING FROM WARM FRONTAL LIFT. SHOULD
START RAINING LIGHTLY AT KMSS AND KSLK WITHIN THE HOUR. SHOWERS
SHOULD MAINLY BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE, THOUGH THERE ARE SIGNS THAT
THERE COULD BE SOME MODERATE SHOWERS AS WELL. LATEST HRRR USED TO
AUGMENT THE LOCATION AND TIME OF THE PRECIPITATION.
LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 AS CLOUDS
AND PRECIP WILL PREVENT TOO MUCH OF A DROP.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT SUNDAY...MONDAY MORNING WILL SERVE AS THE LULL
BETWEEN THE IMPULSES OF ENERGY FROM THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. MOVE OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WE WILL SEE
SOME SLIGHT DRIER AIR FEEDING IN FROM THE WEST AS A NORTHERN
STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN CANADA BEGINS TO PHASE
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE NET RESULT
FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY IS THAT THERE WILL BE BREAKS DURING THE DAY
WITH NO SHOWERS. THE POTENTIALLY PATCHY CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW
ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR SOME SURFACE HEATING TO
DEVELOP WHICH WILL BEGIN TO UNSTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. AS THE
MOISTURE FROM THE PHASING SYSTEMS MOVES INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY SOME CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AND WITH 30-40 KTS OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND 300-500 J/KG OF INSTABILITY THERE COULD BE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. AT THE MOMENT I DON`T FEEL THE OVERLAP IS
ALL THAT GREAT BUT SPC HAS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE MAIN THREAT AS STRONG TO
DAMAGING WINDS. AS OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE I HAVEN`T INCLUDED ANY
MENTION OF ENHANCED WORDING FOR THE SHOWERS ALONG THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY.
TUESDAY WILL BE THE MORE INTERESTING OF THE TWO DAYS IN THE EARLY
WEEK AS THE PHASED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE
REGION. ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE FORECAST REGION AS THE FRONT DRAWS CLOSER TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THAT ENERGY AND DYNAMIC FORCING WILL DESTABILIZE
MOST OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
ALONG WITH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AS ONCE AGAIN PATCHES OF
SCATTED CLOUDS WILL BE OVER THE AREA. AS THE FRONT MOVES IN CLOSER
A STRONG 50-70KT JET WILL BE PRESENT AT 500MB. THIS COMBINED WITH
THE LIGHT WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL CAUSE STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. AS THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE PHASED FRONT MOVES DOWN FROM
CANADA THERE WILL BE DECENT CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WITH THE NAM
FORECASTING 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE WITH MODERATE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AS WELL. THIS COMBINATION OF LIFT FROM THE FRONT,
INSTABILITY FROM THE SCATTERED CLOUDS AND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW
LEVELS COULD LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR VERMONT AND PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK. TIMING
RIGHT NOW BASED ON THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
CONVECTION WILL BEGIN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE THROUGH
IN THE EARLY EVENING. WITH ONLY MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EXPECT THE MAIN THREAT TO ONCE AGAIN BE DAMAGING WINDS WHERE SOME
TREES OR POWER LINES COULD BE BLOWN DOWN. THERE IS INCREASED
CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS SO WITH THIS UPDATE
I DID GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE THE MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS IN THE
FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE A CHALLENGE BASED ON WHERE THE DRY
SLOT IN BETWEEN THE WAVES OF ENERGY WILL REACH. AS OF THE 12Z
SUITE OF GUIDANCE I ANTICIPATE THE DRIER AIR WONT REACH THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SO EXPECT A ROUGHLY 10-15 DEGREE SPREAD IN MAX
TEMPS FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN THE
UPPER 70S AND SOUTHERN VERMONT IN THE MID TO LOW 60S. OVERNIGHT ON
MONDAY TEMPS WILL HOLD FAIRLY NORMAL IN IN THE MID 50S EAST OF THE
GREENS AND IN THE LOW 60S IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. THEN
TUESDAY WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLEARING THERE IS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TO ALLOW FOR DAYTIME HEATING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
BUT THE IDEA WILL BE THAT TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE
THE FRONT FINALLY CLEARS THE AREA BRINGING SOME COOLER AIR FROM
THE NORTH DROPPING TEMPERATURES TUESDAY EVENING BY ABOUT 3-5
DEGREES FROM MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT SUNDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE REGION AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT DRY AND HOLDS
OFF BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. WILL OPT
TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
FROM CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE KEPT IN CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
CANADA ON FRIDAY AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
MODELS SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODELS
SHOW INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AND
HAS A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER AND BRING THIS FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY.
INTERESTINGLY THE ECMWF MODEL TAKES THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE JUST
EAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVES IT
NORTHWEST INTO TEXAS...AND THEN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BEFORE TURNING IT NORTHEAST UP THE OHIO VALLEY. THE ECMWF
HAS THE REMNANTS OF THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY NEXT SUNDAY. EITHER WAY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS WANT TO BRING IN PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THUS...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR FOR SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z
TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO START THE PERIOD AS
APPROACHING WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION BRINGING SHOWERS
AFTER 02Z. EXPECT KSLK CEILINGS TO DROP TO MVFR AROUND 03Z...WITH
OTHER STATIONS FOLLOWING SUIT BETWEEN 08-13Z. SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE
OUT OF THE AREA BETWEEN 14-16Z.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY AROUND THE REGION...WITH
KBTV/KPBG/KRUT SEEING STRONGER WINDS GUSTING 10-20 KNOTS AFTER
13Z.
OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z TUESDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR RAIN SHOWERS,
ESPECIALLY KRUT.
00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE. PATCHY
MVFR/IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KRUT/KSLK/KMPV.
12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH SCT MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
RAIN SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.
06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN BR/FG, HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE AT KMPV/KSLK.
12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MVFR/SCATTERED IFR IN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...NEILES/SISSON
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...MV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
755 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS...STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A SURFACE COOL FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT... THEN DIP SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA EARLY WEDNESDAY... BEFORE GRADUALLY WASHING
OUT LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM TUESDAY...
LITTLE CHANGE WITH ANOTHER WARM FAIR NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE
AREA...WITH THE MID/UPR RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STILL IN CONTROL OF
OUR WEATHER. NOT TOO FAR TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID
ATLANTIC REGION AND THE OHIO VALLEY IS A COLD FRONT THATS GRADUALLY
MOVING ESE. THE HRRR ONCE AGAIN IS TRYING TO DEVELOP PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VA AND BRING THEM SOUTHWARD
SKIRTING OUR NORTHERN/NORTHEAST ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING. SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...THE HRRR SEEMS OVERDONE AND THE
LATEST MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT ANY CELLS THAT DEVELOP TO OUR
NORTH WILL MOVE INTO RELATIVELY DRIER AIR OVER OUR AREA...SO FOR
NOW... WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING LIMITED TO OUR FAR
NE ZONES...WITH MOST OF CENTRAL NC REMAINING DRY. PERSISTENCE FOR
LOWS TONIGHT...LOWER TO MID 70S...COOLEST NW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM TUESDAY...
THE WEAK BOUNDARY CURRENTLY TO OUR NORTH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT
SOUTH...BUT A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE INTO THE PERSISTENT MID/UPR
RIDGE. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST IT WILL MOVE INTO NE NC AS A
BACKDOOR FRONT WHILE THE ECMWF IS ALSO MOVES IT ACROSS OUR AREA
TONIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING LATE ON WEDNESDAY. BOTH SUGGEST SLIGHTLY
COOLER READINGS ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ABOUT 20M
LOWER THAN TODAY...AND COOLEST READINGS ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST ZONES
WHERE THE BEST CHANCE FOR POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS MODIFICATION WILL
OCCUR. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 90 ACROSS OUR NE
ZONES...TO MID-UPR 90S ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ZONES...WHERE
LITTLE IF ANY AIRMASS MODIFICATION WILL OCCUR. HEAT INDICES ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES (WHERE THE HOTTEST TEMPS WILL BE) ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL SHORT OF ADVISORY VALUES...SO FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING A
HEAT ADVISORY AND WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT RE-EVALUATE PENDING
TONIGHTS GUIDANCE.
OTHERWISE...THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE MID-MISS
RIVER VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...EXITING THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LATEST ROUND OF CAMS SUGGEST SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ASSOC WITH THIS WAVE WILL TRACK EAST ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC...WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS
ACTIVITY PERHAPS EXTENDING SOUTH INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL NC LATE IN
THE DAY WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW HIGHEST POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM TUESDAY...
THU-SAT: THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...THEN RECEDE TO
THE DEEP SOUTH/SOUTHEAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES (INCLUDING THE REMNANTS OF TC BILL) TRACKING
EASTWARD (ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE) INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC. EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE...THOUGH
HIGHS ARE UNLIKELY TO EXCEED THE MID/UPPER 90S GIVEN AN INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY ON FRI/SAT AS BILL`S
REMNANTS TRACK EAST OF THE MS RIVER THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AND MID-
ATLANTIC.
SUN-TUE: THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF/GFS SUGGEST THAT A PERIOD OF NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL ENSUE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE STRENGTHENS UPSTREAM OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND LOWER MIDWEST. THEREAFTER...BOTH MODELS INDICATE THAT
THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE CAROLINAS/MID-
ATLANTIC. AS A RESULT...EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
PERSIST...WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE (AGAIN) BY
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR TO POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL MON-TUE WHEN NW FLOW ALOFT IS
PROGGED TO BE IN PLACE. SEVERE WEATHER CAN RARELY BE RULED OUT WHEN
NW FLOW ALOFT IS PRESENT THIS TIME OF YEAR...PARTICULARLY WITH A
STRENGTHENING UPSTREAM RIDGE. SUCH A PATTERN CAN DELIVER THE
ATYPICAL INGREDIENTS NECESSARY FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER...
I.E. A PRONOUNCED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AND ENHANCED DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. -VINCENT
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 755 PM TUESDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CHANGES LITTLE.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM THIS EVENING
NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER COUNTIES...AND WEDNEDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING
WHEN ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY OCCUR ABOUT ANYWHERE. DUE TO THE
LIMITED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION...WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TERMINAL
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED MVFR
CONDITIONS PROBABLE EACH AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAY INCREASE
A BIT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRAVERSES
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE..CAUSING SLIGHTLY BETTER CONDITIONS
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.CLIMATE...
REC HI
DAY MAX YR MIN YR
RDU RECORDS
06/16 98 1981 75 1998
06/17 99 1961 75 2004
06/18 98 1944 75 1935
GSO RECORDS
06/16 96 1914 73 2004
06/17 98 1944 76 2004
06/18 100 1944 73 1970
FAY RECORDS
06/16 100 1981 77 1998
06/17 101 1981 77 1945
06/18 102 1944 76 2004
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...WSS
CLIMATE...MLM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
300 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...STRONG AND DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES AND CAROLINAS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...
CURRENT OBS SHOW THAT THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY IS ON TRACK AND
SEVERAL HIGH TEMP RECORDS HAVE BEEN BROKEN (RDU AND FAY). WILL LET
THE ADVISORY CONTINUE AS-IS THROUGH 7 PM WHEN IT`S SET TO END.
OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE IN PATTERN TONIGHT WITH THE 594 H5 RIDGE
PARKED OVER THE SOUTHEAST. LATEST HRRR STILL SHOWS THAT THE BEST
CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED PASSING SHOWER WILL BE MOSTLY TO OUR NORTH
AND NORTHEAST. WILL LEAN TOWARD PERSISTENCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT...
AROUND 70 NW TO MID 70S SE/E.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...
PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SETUP
OVER US DURING THE DAYTIME TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE AVG BL TEMP A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER...SO PERHAPS WE`LL SEE A
FEW MORE 100+ DEGREE READINGS THAN WE`VE SEEN TODAY. AS SUCH...THE
MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE HEAT WITH HEAT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS OVER A GOOD PORTION OF OUR CWA. WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE
THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR TUESDAY FOR THE SAME COUNTIES AS TODAY...
BASICALLY OUR ENTIRE CWA EXCEPT FOR THE TRIAD.
LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE H5 RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN
AND SHIFT SOUTH AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. NEARLY ALL CAMS SHOW
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ASSOC WITH THE SHORT WAVE AND ITS BOUNDARY
REMAINING TO OUR NORTH AND DISSIPATING BEFORE CROSSING THE VA
BORDER. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO OUR NORTH...AS
THEY MAY WARRANT A VERY LOW-END POP ACROSS OUR VA BORDER ZONES AS
THEY PUSH SOUTH...OTHERWISE...THE CWA SHOULD STAY MOSTLY DRY. LOWS
IN THE LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WILL PERSIST MORE-OR-
LESS AS-IS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH CENTRAL NC LOCATED
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...AT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
OF THE WESTERLIES. DUE TO THIS PRECARIOUS POSITION (INTERFACE
BETWEEN THE RIDGE/WESTERLIES)...FORECAST SPECIFICS WILL BE HIGHLY
SENSITIVE TO SMALL CHANGES IN THE ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE AND/OR
AMPLITUDE OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVES. AS A RESULT...CONFIDENCE IN
FORECAST SPECIFICS IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE...PARTICULARLY WITH REGARD
TO CONVECTIVE TIMING/COVERAGE. LATER IN THE EXTENDED...THE 12Z
ECMWF/GFS BOTH INDICATE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS (AND POSSIBLE
TROPICAL CYCLONE REMNANTS) WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE RIDGE
SAT/SUN...WITH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT (AND SOME RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT) EVOLVING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL
INDICATE HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S WED-FRI...MID 90S SAT/SUN...AND
LOW/MID 90S EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A 30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
EACH DAY...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER ON FRI/SAT. -VINCENT
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...
WITH THE PERSISTENT RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHEAST...LOOK FOR
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT W-NW SFC WINDS TO CONTINUE DURING THE 24
HOUR TAF PERIOD.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WILL COME THURSDAY MORNING WITH POSSIBLE STRATUS...AND
LATER IN THE WEEK DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ASSOC WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
REC HI
DAY MAX YR MIN YR
RDU RECORDS
06/15 97 1981 76 1899
06/16 98 1981 75 1998
06/17 99 1961 75 2004
06/18 98 1944 75 1935
GSO RECORDS
06/15 97 1926 73 1981
06/16 96 1914 73 2004
06/17 98 1944 76 2004
06/18 100 1944 73 1970
FAY RECORDS
06/15 98 1981 76 1926
06/16 100 1981 77 1998
06/17 101 1981 77 1945
06/18 102 1944 76 2004
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ007>011-
023>028-039>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ007>011-
023>028-039>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...RAH
CLIMATE...MLM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1226 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE WORST OF THE HEAT WAVE IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TUESDAY.
SOMEWHAT LOWER TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO WEAKEN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
THIS WEEK WILL BE ISOLATED. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM MONDAY...MID 90S ARE WIDESPREAD AT NOON ACROSS THE
AREA WITH LUMBERTON ALREADY ALREADY REPORTING 97. VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWS THE FIRST FEW CUMULUS BUILDING UP ALONG THE WEST BANK OF THE
CAPE FEAR RIVER BETWEEN WILMINGTON AND SOUTHPORT...WITH A FEW MORE
NORTH OF BURGAW AND ELIZABETHTOWN. OTHER THAN A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO
TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER FORECASTS...OUR FORECAST CONTINUES
UNMODIFIED. DISCUSSION FROM 1000 AM FOLLOWS...
THE HEAT IS ON! 10 AM TEMPERATURES ARE 90 OR HIGHER IN
WILMINGTON...LUMBERTON AND FLORENCE...AND IT`S JUST GOING TO GET
WORSE OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS. APPLYING OBSERVED 2-DAY BIAS
CORRECTIONS TO GFS AND NAM MOS YIELDS ALMOST PRECISELY THE
TEMPERATURES OUR LAST SHIFT HAD IN THE FORECAST.
ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WILL BUILD TO 1000-2000 J/KG AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON THE ONLY TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION WILL BE THE
SEABREEZE. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD MAKE BETTER INLAND PROGRESS THAN
WE`VE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO WEAKER 100-850 MB
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS COUNTERING THE NATURAL MOVEMENT OF THE
BOUNDARY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MARGINAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT
THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER NEAR THE LCL/LFC...AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY TO BE VERY ISOLATED IN COVERAGE. DISCUSSION FROM 600 AM
FOLLOWS...
TODAY WILL BE MORE OPPRESSIVE THAN THE WEEKEND AND TUE LOOKS TO
BE THE PEAK OF THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVE.
THE HEAT INDEX WILL COMMONLY REACH 105 TO 107 DEG AND A FEW SPOTS
MAY TOP THAT FOR AN HOUR.
TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL RISE TO ABOUT 21 DEG C TODAY. THIS IS A DEG
HIGHER THAN ON SUN. ON SUN...INLAND THERMOMETERS REGISTERED UPPER
90S AND A FEW SPOTS...LIKE LBT...REACHED OR JUST EXCEEDED 100 DEG.
LOCATIONS NEARER TO THE COAST WERE ALSO HOT...MAINLY UPPER 90S WITH
LOWER TO MID 90S AT THE BEACHES. AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BUILD...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT LEAST AS HOT AS ON SUN IF NOT A
DEG OR TWO HIGHER IN MOST LOCATIONS. WE ARE FORECASTING WIDESPREAD
HIGHS AROUND 100 DEG INLAND. THE MORE COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 90S WITH LOWER TO MID 90S CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE
BEACHES. THE SEABREEZE SHOULD MAKE SOME INLAND PROGRESS GIVEN THE
LIGHT W TO SW FLOW IN THE LOWEST 3 K FT. HOWEVER...THIS WILL ONLY
SERVE TO KEEP COASTAL DEWPOINTS ELEVATED OR INCREASE THEM SLIGHTLY
WHICH WILL ONLY ADD TO THE DISCOMFORT LEVEL.
RECORD HIGHS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO REACH OR EXCEED TODAY...BUT THERE
IS A POSSIBILITY IN SOME LOCATIONS.
THE RECORD HIGH AT FLO IS 104 SET IN 1981 AND THE FORECAST HIGH FOR
TODAY IS 102.
THE RECORD HIGH AT ILM IS 100 SET IN 1880 AND THE FORECAST HIGH FOR
TODAY IS 99.
THE RECORD HIGH AT CRE IS 98 SET IN 2010 AND THE FORECAST HIGH FOR
TODAY IS 96.
TEMPS AFTER SUNSET WILL BE VERY WARM WITH MANY PLACES STILL IN THE
LOWER 80S AROUND MIDNIGHT. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE MID AND UPPER
70S AND THE BEACHES MAY NOT DROP BELOW 80 DEG.
AS THE HEAT HAS BUILT...THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR LESS IN THE WAY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH EACH PASSING DAY. THE SUBSIDENCE WILL
BE EVEN GREATER TODAY THAN ON SUN AND TEMPS IN THE MID LEVELS WILL
REMAIN SIMILAR. HOWEVER...VERY STRONG HEATING WILL INCREASE
INSTABILITY WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH 1500 TO
2000 J/KG. THUS WILL SHOW AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FOR
ONLY A SMALL PART OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE...PRIMARILY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEABREEZE WITH PERHAPS A
SPOTTY POP-UP THUNDERSTORM INLAND IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH. THE HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL IS ALSO SHOWING VERY LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...STRONG MID TO UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH MID WEEK CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH PLENTY
OF SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AT THE LOW
LEVELS THOUGH TO COMBINE WITH STRONG HEATING OF THE DAY TO PRODUCE
LOCALIZED CONVECTION ALONG SEA BREEZE...PIEDMONT TROUGH AND OTHER
CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES. WINDS UP THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY WEAK WITH A LIGHT STEERING FLOW OUT OF THE W-NW AND SFC
WINDS GENERALLY DOMINATED BY SEA/LAND BREEZE. IT WILL BE THE
SUBTLE CHANGES IN WINDS AND MOISTURE THAT WILL DICTATE THE CHANGE
IN CONVECTION EACH DAY. A FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE SOUTH WILL
NOT MAKE IT INTO THE AREA BUT SOME ADDED MOISTURE WILL ADVECT
SOUTHWARD MAY ADD TO CONVECTION ON WED WITH PCP WATER VALUES
REACHING UP CLOSER TO 2 INCHES POOLING ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE STRONG
RIDGE OVERHEAD AND H5 HEIGHTS UP NEAR 594 DM AS WELL AS A
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND. LOOKS LIKE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
AND 850 TEMPS WILL PEAK ON TUES AND THEREFORE EXPECT WARMEST TEMPS
THIS DAY WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING TEMPS CLOSER TO THE COAST NEAR 100
AND TEMPS INLAND A FEW DEGREES HIGHER. THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
WILL KEEP DEWPOINT TEMPS UP IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WHICH IN
TURN WILL PRODUCE VERY HIGH HEAT INDICES AND MAINTAIN VERY WARM
OVERNIGHT TEMPS. HEAT INDICES ON TUE WILL REACH HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA ONCE AGAIN BUT WED MY FALL JUST SHY. POTENTIAL FOR AN
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WILL EXIST ON TUES WITH HEAT INDICES UP TO
110F IN SPOTS. LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL UP IN THE 70S TO AROUND
80.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...RIDGE HOLDS TOUGH FOR THE MOST PART BUT DOES
GET SUPPRESSED SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND EAST ALLOWING FOR SOME H5 HEIGHT
FALLS AND POSSIBLY SOME PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW ALOFT TO RIDE
OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. OVERALL EXPECT VERY WARM WEATHER TO
CONTINUE WITH LOCALIZED CONVECTION MOST DAYS FOCUSED ALONG SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY AND PIEDMONT TROUGH. GFS DOES INDICATE A
SHORTWAVE PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE CAROLINAS ON SAT INTO SUN
WITH A STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT AND BETTER CHC FOR
CONVECTION SAT AFTN INTO THE EVE. TEMPS WILL RUN SLIGHTLY LOWER
TOWARDS THE WEEKEND WITH MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S AS COMPARED
TO MID 90S TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS
HOLDING CLOSER TO 70 OR SO...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO REMAIN IN
THE MID 70S MOST PLACES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...A VERY WARM AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE AIRMASS CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WITH A SEA
BREEZE IMPACTING THE COASTAL TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 01 TO 02 UTC.
THE LOCAL AND MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AT
6000 FEET.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH
AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM MONDAY...NO HINT OF THE SEABREEZE YET AT WRIGHTSVILLE
BEACH OR MYRTLE BEACH BUT IT`S SETTING UP NICELY IN WIND OBSERVATIONS
AND ON RADAR IMAGERY ALONG THE BRUNSWICK COUNTY COAST. NO
CHANGE ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST. DISCUSSION FROM 1000 AM FOLLOWS...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED WITH THIS MORNING UPDATE. WEST
WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BACK AROUND SOUTHERLY MUCH EARLIER THAN THEY
DID YESTERDAY SINCE THE WESTERLY WIND IN THE LOWEST 5000 FEET OF THE
ATMOSPHERE IS WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY. SEAS REMAIN ONLY 1-2 FEET
ACCORDING TO LATEST BUOY REPORTS...AND LATEST WEBCAM IMAGES SHOW THE
OCEAN IS FAIRLY GLASSY.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT PREVAILING WINDS WILL ALLOW
SEA/LAND BREEZE TO DOMINATE THE FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH MID
WEEK. A WEAKENED BOUNDARY MAY GET A PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO
PRODUCE A SHIFT IN WINDS TO THE N-NE AND EAST THROUGH WED. WINDS
WILL BE 10 TO 15 KT FOR THE MOST PART...BUT MAY BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER ON WED. SEAS BASICALLY 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A
LONGER PERIOD UP TO 11 SEC SOUTHEAST SWELL MIXING IN WITH THE
SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN WITH LAND/SEA
BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH DRIVING THE WINDS EACH AFTN/EVE. WINDS
MAY REACH UP TO 15 KT ON FRI PRODUCING A SLIGHT RISE IN SEAS UP
TO 3 TO 4 FT. GRADIENT TIGHTENS FURTHER HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND
AND SHOULD SEE SW WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KT BY SATURDAY WHICH IN
TURN SHOULD PUSH THE SEAS UP TO 3 TO 5 FT.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...
ALTHOUGH THIS MAY NOT BE RECORD-BREAKING HEAT IT`S STILL THE
FIRST TIME IN ALMOST 3 YEARS WE`VE HAD THESE KIND OF TEMPERATURES
IN THE FORECAST.
97 98 99 100 101 102 103
WILMINGTON 6/14/15 7/27/12 7/27/12 7/27/12 7/27/12 6/30/12 6/30/12
MYRTLE BEACH 6/14/15 7/24/12 7/28/05 7/27/05 7/27/05 8/17/54 8/17/54
FLORENCE 6/14/15 6/14/15 6/14/15 7/09/14 7/26/12 7/09/12 7/01/12
THIS IS ALSO AVAILABLE GRAPHICALLY ON OUR FACEBOOK & TWITTER PAGES
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ017-023-024-
032-033-039-053>056.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-099-
105>110.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...RJD/TRA
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DRH
CLIMATE...TRA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1007 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY INTO MID WEEK.
THE WORST OF THE HEAT WAVE IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TUESDAY. SOMEWHAT
LOWER TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO WEAKEN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS
WEEK WILL BE ISOLATED. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP DURING THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM MONDAY...THE HEAT IS ON! 10 AM TEMPERATURES ARE 90
OR HIGHER IN WILMINGTON...LUMBERTON AND FLORENCE...AND IT`S JUST
GOING TO GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS. APPLYING OBSERVED 2-DAY
BIAS CORRECTIONS TO GFS AND NAM MOS YIELDS ALMOST PRECISELY THE
TEMPERATURES OUR LAST SHIFT HAD IN THE FORECAST.
ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WILL BUILD TO 1000-2000 J/KG AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON THE ONLY TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION WILL BE THE
SEABREEZE. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD MAKE BETTER INLAND PROGRESS THAN
WE`VE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO WEAKER 100-850 MB
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS COUNTERING THE NATURAL MOVEMENT OF THE
BOUNDARY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MARGINAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT
THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER NEAR THE LCL/LFC...AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY TO BE VERY ISOLATED IN COVERAGE. DISCUSSION FROM 600 AM
FOLLOWS...
TODAY WILL BE MORE OPPRESSIVE THAN THE WEEKEND AND TUE LOOKS TO
BE THE PEAK OF THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVE.
THE HEAT INDEX WILL COMMONLY REACH 105 TO 107 DEG AND A FEW SPOTS
MAY TOP THAT FOR AN HOUR.
TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL RISE TO ABOUT 21 DEG C TODAY. THIS IS A DEG
HIGHER THAN ON SUN. ON SUN...INLAND THERMOMETERS REGISTERED UPPER
90S AND A FEW SPOTS...LIKE LBT...REACHED OR JUST EXCEEDED 100 DEG.
LOCATIONS NEARER TO THE COAST WERE ALSO HOT...MAINLY UPPER 90S WITH
LOWER TO MID 90S AT THE BEACHES. AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BUILD...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT LEAST AS HOT AS ON SUN IF NOT A
DEG OR TWO HIGHER IN MOST LOCATIONS. WE ARE FORECASTING WIDESPREAD
HIGHS AROUND 100 DEG INLAND. THE MORE COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 90S WITH LOWER TO MID 90S CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE
BEACHES. THE SEABREEZE SHOULD MAKE SOME INLAND PROGRESS GIVEN THE
LIGHT W TO SW FLOW IN THE LOWEST 3 K FT. HOWEVER...THIS WILL ONLY
SERVE TO KEEP COASTAL DEWPOINTS ELEVATED OR INCREASE THEM SLIGHTLY
WHICH WILL ONLY ADD TO THE DISCOMFORT LEVEL.
RECORD HIGHS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO REACH OR EXCEED TODAY...BUT THERE
IS A POSSIBILITY IN SOME LOCATIONS.
THE RECORD HIGH AT FLO IS 104 SET IN 1981 AND THE FORECAST HIGH FOR
TODAY IS 102.
THE RECORD HIGH AT ILM IS 100 SET IN 1880 AND THE FORECAST HIGH FOR
TODAY IS 99.
THE RECORD HIGH AT CRE IS 98 SET IN 2010 AND THE FORECAST HIGH FOR
TODAY IS 96.
TEMPS AFTER SUNSET WILL BE VERY WARM WITH MANY PLACES STILL IN THE
LOWER 80S AROUND MIDNIGHT. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE MID AND UPPER
70S AND THE BEACHES MAY NOT DROP BELOW 80 DEG.
AS THE HEAT HAS BUILT...THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR LESS IN THE WAY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH EACH PASSING DAY. THE SUBSIDENCE WILL
BE EVEN GREATER TODAY THAN ON SUN AND TEMPS IN THE MID LEVELS WILL
REMAIN SIMILAR. HOWEVER...VERY STRONG HEATING WILL INCREASE
INSTABILITY WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH 1500 TO
2000 J/KG. THUS WILL SHOW AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FOR
ONLY A SMALL PART OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE...PRIMARILY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEABREEZE WITH PERHAPS A
SPOTTY POP-UP THUNDERSTORM INLAND IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH. THE HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL IS ALSO SHOWING VERY LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...STRONG MID TO UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH MID WEEK CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH PLENTY
OF SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AT THE LOW
LEVELS THOUGH TO COMBINE WITH STRONG HEATING OF THE DAY TO PRODUCE
LOCALIZED CONVECTION ALONG SEA BREEZE...PIEDMONT TROUGH AND OTHER
CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES. WINDS UP THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY WEAK WITH A LIGHT STEERING FLOW OUT OF THE W-NW AND SFC
WINDS GENERALLY DOMINATED BY SEA/LAND BREEZE. IT WILL BE THE
SUBTLE CHANGES IN WINDS AND MOISTURE THAT WILL DICTATE THE CHANGE
IN CONVECTION EACH DAY. A FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE SOUTH WILL
NOT MAKE IT INTO THE AREA BUT SOME ADDED MOISTURE WILL ADVECT
SOUTHWARD MAY ADD TO CONVECTION ON WED WITH PCP WATER VALUES
REACHING UP CLOSER TO 2 INCHES POOLING ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE STRONG
RIDGE OVERHEAD AND H5 HEIGHTS UP NEAR 594 DM AS WELL AS A
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND. LOOKS LIKE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
AND 850 TEMPS WILL PEAK ON TUES AND THEREFORE EXPECT WARMEST TEMPS
THIS DAY WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING TEMPS CLOSER TO THE COAST NEAR 100
AND TEMPS INLAND A FEW DEGREES HIGHER. THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
WILL KEEP DEWPOINT TEMPS UP IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WHICH IN
TURN WILL PRODUCE VERY HIGH HEAT INDICES AND MAINTAIN VERY WARM
OVERNIGHT TEMPS. HEAT INDICES ON TUE WILL REACH HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA ONCE AGAIN BUT WED MY FALL JUST SHY. POTENTIAL FOR AN
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WILL EXIST ON TUES WITH HEAT INDICES UP TO
110F IN SPOTS. LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL UP IN THE 70S TO AROUND
80.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...RIDGE HOLDS TOUGH FOR THE MOST PART BUT DOES
GET SUPPRESSED SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND EAST ALLOWING FOR SOME H5 HEIGHT
FALLS AND POSSIBLY SOME PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW ALOFT TO RIDE
OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. OVERALL EXPECT VERY WARM WEATHER TO
CONTINUE WITH LOCALIZED CONVECTION MOST DAYS FOCUSED ALONG SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY AND PIEDMONT TROUGH. GFS DOES INDICATE A
SHORTWAVE PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE CAROLINAS ON SAT INTO SUN
WITH A STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT AND BETTER CHC FOR
CONVECTION SAT AFTN INTO THE EVE. TEMPS WILL RUN SLIGHTLY LOWER
TOWARDS THE WEEKEND WITH MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S AS COMPARED
TO MID 90S TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS
HOLDING CLOSER TO 70 OR SO...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO REMAIN IN
THE MID 70S MOST PLACES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WITH VERY WARM HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH FEW TO SCT
CUMULUS EXPECTED AROUND 6000 FEET BY THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH A NORTHWEST WIND THIS MORNING
VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AT THE INLAND TAF
SITES. A SEA BREEZE WILL BE REALIZED AT THE COASTAL TAF SITES
GENERALLY AFTER 18 UTC AND THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST AFTER THE
SEABREEZE BREAKS DOWN AFTER SUNSET.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED WITH
THIS MORNING UPDATE. WEST WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BACK AROUND
SOUTHERLY MUCH EARLIER THAN THEY DID YESTERDAY SINCE THE WESTERLY
WIND IN THE LOWEST 5000 FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS WEAKER THAN
YESTERDAY. SEAS REMAIN ONLY 1-2 FEET ACCORDING TO LATEST BUOY
REPORTS...AND LATEST WEBCAM IMAGES SHOW THE OCEAN IS FAIRLY
GLASSY. DISCUSSION FROM 600 AM FOLLOWS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONCERT WITH A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE. MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WILL INCLUDE THE MORNING
LAND BREEZE AND THE NEARLY PINNED AFTERNOON AND EVE SEABREEZE. THE
WIND DIRECTION TO START THE PERIOD WILL BE FROM THE W AT LESS THAN
10 KT. SW WINDS WILL RETURN BY LATE MORNING AND THEN PERSIST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...BUT BECOMING S ACROSS THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS FOR A TIME LATER THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO SEABREEZE
INFLUENCES. WIND SPEEDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL
GENERALLY BE 10 TO 15 KT...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVE DUE TO SEABREEZE
INFLUENCES AND TONIGHT THROUGHOUT AS SOME NOCTURNAL JETTING
RETURNS. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT TODAY WITH SOME 3 FT SEAS DEVELOPING
LATER IN THE DAY AND BECOMING MORE PREVALENT TONIGHT. A WEAK 9 TO
11 SECOND SE SWELL WILL BE PRESENT.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT PREVAILING WINDS WILL ALLOW
SEA/LAND BREEZE TO DOMINATE THE FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH MID
WEEK. A WEAKENED BOUNDARY MAY GET A PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO
PRODUCE A SHIFT IN WINDS TO THE N-NE AND EAST THROUGH WED. WINDS
WILL BE 10 TO 15 KT FOR THE MOST PART...BUT MAY BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER ON WED. SEAS BASICALLY 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A
LONGER PERIOD UP TO 11 SEC SOUTHEAST SWELL MIXING IN WITH THE
SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN WITH LAND/SEA
BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH DRIVING THE WINDS EACH AFTN/EVE. WINDS
MAY REACH UP TO 15 KT ON FRI PRODUCING A SLIGHT RISE IN SEAS UP
TO 3 TO 4 FT. GRADIENT TIGHTENS FURTHER HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND
AND SHOULD SEE SW WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KT BY SATURDAY WHICH IN
TURN SHOULD PUSH THE SEAS UP TO 3 TO 5 FT.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...
ALTHOUGH THIS MAY NOT BE RECORD-BREAKING HEAT IT`S STILL THE
FIRST TIME IN ALMOST 3 YEARS WE`VE HAD THESE KIND OF TEMPERATURES
IN THE FORECAST.
97 98 99 100 101 102 103
WILMINGTON 6/14/15 7/27/12 7/27/12 7/27/12 7/27/12 6/30/12 6/30/12
MYRTLE BEACH 6/14/15 7/24/12 7/28/05 7/27/05 7/27/05 8/17/54 8/17/54
FLORENCE 6/14/15 6/14/15 6/14/15 7/09/14 7/26/12 7/09/12 7/01/12
THIS IS ALSO AVAILABLE GRAPHICALLY ON OUR FACEBOOK & TWITTER PAGES
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ017-023-024-
032-033-039-053>056.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-099-
105>110.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...RJD/TRA
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DRH
CLIMATE...TRA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
723 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY INTO MID WEEK.
THE WORST OF THE HEAT WAVE IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TUESDAY. SOMEWHAT
LOWER TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO WEAKEN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS
WEEK WILL BE ISOLATED. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP DURING THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM MONDAY...TODAY WILL BE MORE OPPRESSIVE THAN THE
WEEKEND AND TUE LOOKS TO BE THE PEAK OF THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. A
HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR LATE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVE. THE HEAT INDEX WILL COMMONLY REACH 105
TO 107 DEG AND A FEW SPOTS MAY TOP THAT FOR AN HOUR.
TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL RISE TO ABOUT 21 DEG C TODAY. THIS IS A DEG
HIGHER THAN ON SUN. ON SUN...INLAND THERMOMETERS REGISTERED UPPER
90S AND A FEW SPOTS...LIKE LBT...REACHED OR JUST EXCEEDED 100 DEG.
LOCATIONS NEARER TO THE COAST WERE ALSO HOT...MAINLY UPPER 90S WITH
LOWER TO MID 90S AT THE BEACHES. AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BUILD...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT LEAST AS HOT AS ON SUN IF NOT A
DEG OR TWO HIGHER IN MOST LOCATIONS. WE ARE FORECASTING WIDESPREAD
HIGHS AROUND 100 DEG INLAND. THE MORE COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 90S WITH LOWER TO MID 90S CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE
BEACHES. THE SEABREEZE SHOULD MAKE SOME INLAND PROGRESS GIVEN THE
LIGHT W TO SW FLOW IN THE LOWEST 3 K FT. HOWEVER...THIS WILL ONLY
SERVE TO KEEP COASTAL DEWPOINTS ELEVATED OR INCREASE THEM SLIGHTLY
WHICH WILL ONLY ADD TO THE DISCOMFORT LEVEL.
RECORD HIGHS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO REACH OR EXCEED TODAY...BUT THERE
IS A POSSIBILITY IN SOME LOCATIONS.
THE RECORD HIGH AT FLO IS 104 SET IN 1981 AND THE FORECAST HIGH FOR
TODAY IS 102.
THE RECORD HIGH AT ILM IS 100 SET IN 1880 AND THE FORECAST HIGH FOR
TODAY IS 99.
THE RECORD HIGH AT CRE IS 98 SET IN 2010 AND THE FORECAST HIGH FOR
TODAY IS 96.
TEMPS AFTER SUNSET WILL BE VERY WARM WITH MANY PLACES STILL IN THE
LOWER 80S AROUND MIDNIGHT. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE MID AND UPPER
70S AND THE BEACHES MAY NOT DROP BELOW 80 DEG.
AS THE HEAT HAS BUILT...THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR LESS IN THE WAY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH EACH PASSING DAY. THE SUBSIDENCE WILL
BE EVEN GREATER TODAY THAN ON SUN AND TEMPS IN THE MID LEVELS WILL
REMAIN SIMILAR. HOWEVER...VERY STRONG HEATING WILL INCREASE
INSTABILITY WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH 1500 TO
2000 J/KG. THUS WILL SHOW AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FOR
ONLY A SMALL PART OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE...PRIMARILY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEABREEZE WITH PERHAPS A
SPOTTY POP-UP THUNDERSTORM INLAND IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH. THE HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL IS ALSO SHOWING VERY LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...STRONG MID TO UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH MID WEEK CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH PLENTY
OF SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AT THE LOW
LEVELS THOUGH TO COMBINE WITH STRONG HEATING OF THE DAY TO PRODUCE
LOCALIZED CONVECTION ALONG SEA BREEZE...PIEDMONT TROUGH AND OTHER
CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES. WINDS UP THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY WEAK WITH A LIGHT STEERING FLOW OUT OF THE W-NW AND SFC
WINDS GENERALLY DOMINATED BY SEA/LAND BREEZE. IT WILL BE THE
SUBTLE CHANGES IN WINDS AND MOISTURE THAT WILL DICTATE THE CHANGE
IN CONVECTION EACH DAY. A FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE SOUTH WILL
NOT MAKE IT INTO THE AREA BUT SOME ADDED MOISTURE WILL ADVECT
SOUTHWARD MAY ADD TO CONVECTION ON WED WITH PCP WATER VALUES
REACHING UP CLOSER TO 2 INCHES POOLING ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE STRONG
RIDGE OVERHEAD AND H5 HEIGHTS UP NEAR 594 DM AS WELL AS A
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND. LOOKS LIKE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
AND 850 TEMPS WILL PEAK ON TUES AND THEREFORE EXPECT WARMEST TEMPS
THIS DAY WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING TEMPS CLOSER TO THE COAST NEAR 100
AND TEMPS INLAND A FEW DEGREES HIGHER. THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
WILL KEEP DEWPOINT TEMPS UP IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WHICH IN
TURN WILL PRODUCE VERY HIGH HEAT INDICES AND MAINTAIN VERY WARM
OVERNIGHT TEMPS. HEAT INDICES ON TUE WILL REACH HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA ONCE AGAIN BUT WED MY FALL JUST SHY. POTENTIAL FOR AN
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WILL EXIST ON TUES WITH HEAT INDICES UP TO
110F IN SPOTS. LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL UP IN THE 70S TO AROUND
80.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...RIDGE HOLDS TOUGH FOR THE MOST PART BUT DOES
GET SUPPRESSED SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND EAST ALLOWING FOR SOME H5 HEIGHT
FALLS AND POSSIBLY SOME PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW ALOFT TO RIDE
OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. OVERALL EXPECT VERY WARM WEATHER TO
CONTINUE WITH LOCALIZED CONVECTION MOST DAYS FOCUSED ALONG SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY AND PIEDMONT TROUGH. GFS DOES INDICATE A
SHORTWAVE PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE CAROLINAS ON SAT INTO SUN
WITH A STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT AND BETTER CHC FOR
CONVECTION SAT AFTN INTO THE EVE. TEMPS WILL RUN SLIGHTLY LOWER
TOWARDS THE WEEKEND WITH MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S AS COMPARED
TO MID 90S TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS
HOLDING CLOSER TO 70 OR SO...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO REMAIN IN
THE MID 70S MOST PLACES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WITH VERY WARM HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH FEW TO SCT
CUMULUS EXPECTED AROUND 6000 FEET BY THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH A NORTHWEST WIND THIS MORNING
VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AT THE INLAND TAF
SITES. A SEA BREEZE WILL BE REALIZED AT THE COASTAL TAF SITES
GENERALLY AFTER 18 UTC AND THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST AFTER THE
SEABREEZE BREAKS DOWN AFTER SUNSET.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONCERT WITH A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WILL
INCLUDE THE MORNING LAND BREEZE AND THE NEARLY PINNED AFTERNOON
AND EVE SEABREEZE. THE WIND DIRECTION TO START THE PERIOD WILL BE
FROM THE W AT LESS THAN 10 KT. SW WINDS WILL RETURN BY LATE
MORNING AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...BUT
BECOMING S ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS FOR A TIME LATER THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO SEABREEZE INFLUENCES. WIND SPEEDS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE 10 TO 15 KT...WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVE DUE TO SEABREEZE INFLUENCES AND TONIGHT THROUGHOUT AS SOME
NOCTURNAL JETTING RETURNS. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT TODAY WITH SOME 3 FT
SEAS DEVELOPING LATER IN THE DAY AND BECOMING MORE PREVALENT
TONIGHT. A WEAK 9 TO 11 SECOND SE SWELL WILL BE PRESENT.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT PREVAILING WINDS WILL ALLOW
SEA/LAND BREEZE TO DOMINATE THE FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH MID
WEEK. A WEAKENED BOUNDARY MAY GET A PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO
PRODUCE A SHIFT IN WINDS TO THE N-NE AND EAST THROUGH WED. WINDS
WILL BE 10 TO 15 KT FOR THE MOST PART...BUT MAY BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER ON WED. SEAS BASICALLY 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A
LONGER PERIOD UP TO 11 SEC SOUTHEAST SWELL MIXING IN WITH THE
SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN WITH LAND/SEA
BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH DRIVING THE WINDS EACH AFTN/EVE. WINDS
MAY REACH UP TO 15 KT ON FRI PRODUCING A SLIGHT RISE IN SEAS UP
TO 3 TO 4 FT. GRADIENT TIGHTENS FURTHER HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND
AND SHOULD SEE SW WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KT BY SATURDAY WHICH IN
TURN SHOULD PUSH THE SEAS UP TO 3 TO 5 FT.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...
ALTHOUGH THIS MAY NOT BE RECORD-BREAKING HEAT IT`S STILL THE
FIRST TIME IN ALMOST 3 YEARS WE`VE HAD THESE KIND OF TEMPERATURES
IN THE FORECAST.
97 98 99 100 101 102 103
WILMINGTON 6/14/15 7/27/12 7/27/12 7/27/12 7/27/12 6/30/12 6/30/12
MYRTLE BEACH 6/14/15 7/24/12 7/28/05 7/27/05 7/27/05 8/17/54 8/17/54
FLORENCE 6/14/15 6/14/15 6/14/15 7/09/14 7/26/12 7/09/12 7/01/12
THIS IS ALSO AVAILABLE GRAPHICALLY ON OUR FACEBOOK & TWITTER PAGES
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053>056.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DRH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED CLIMATE SECTION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
652 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY INTO MID WEEK.
THE WORST OF THE HEAT WAVE IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TUESDAY. SOMEWHAT
LOWER TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO WEAKEN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS
WEEK WILL BE ISOLATED. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP DURING THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM MONDAY...TODAY WILL BE MORE OPPRESSIVE THAN THE
WEEKEND AND TUE LOOKS TO BE THE PEAK OF THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. A
HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR LATE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVE. THE HEAT INDEX WILL COMMONLY REACH 105
TO 107 DEG AND A FEW SPOTS MAY TOP THAT FOR AN HOUR.
TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL RISE TO ABOUT 21 DEG C TODAY. THIS IS A DEG
HIGHER THAN ON SUN. ON SUN...INLAND THERMOMETERS REGISTERED UPPER
90S AND A FEW SPOTS...LIKE LBT...REACHED OR JUST EXCEEDED 100 DEG.
LOCATIONS NEARER TO THE COAST WERE ALSO HOT...MAINLY UPPER 90S WITH
LOWER TO MID 90S AT THE BEACHES. AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BUILD...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT LEAST AS HOT AS ON SUN IF NOT A
DEG OR TWO HIGHER IN MOST LOCATIONS. WE ARE FORECASTING WIDESPREAD
HIGHS AROUND 100 DEG INLAND. THE MORE COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 90S WITH LOWER TO MID 90S CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE
BEACHES. THE SEABREEZE SHOULD MAKE SOME INLAND PROGRESS GIVEN THE
LIGHT W TO SW FLOW IN THE LOWEST 3 K FT. HOWEVER...THIS WILL ONLY
SERVE TO KEEP COASTAL DEWPOINTS ELEVATED OR INCREASE THEM SLIGHTLY
WHICH WILL ONLY ADD TO THE DISCOMFORT LEVEL.
RECORD HIGHS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO REACH OR EXCEED TODAY...BUT THERE
IS A POSSIBILITY IN SOME LOCATIONS.
THE RECORD HIGH AT FLO IS 104 SET IN 1981 AND THE FORECAST HIGH FOR
TODAY IS 102.
THE RECORD HIGH AT ILM IS 100 SET IN 1880 AND THE FORECAST HIGH FOR
TODAY IS 99.
THE RECORD HIGH AT CRE IS 98 SET IN 2010 AND THE FORECAST HIGH FOR
TODAY IS 96.
TEMPS AFTER SUNSET WILL BE VERY WARM WITH MANY PLACES STILL IN THE
LOWER 80S AROUND MIDNIGHT. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE MID AND UPPER
70S AND THE BEACHES MAY NOT DROP BELOW 80 DEG.
AS THE HEAT HAS BUILT...THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR LESS IN THE WAY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH EACH PASSING DAY. THE SUBSIDENCE WILL
BE EVEN GREATER TODAY THAN ON SUN AND TEMPS IN THE MID LEVELS WILL
REMAIN SIMILAR. HOWEVER...VERY STRONG HEATING WILL INCREASE
INSTABILITY WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH 1500 TO
2000 J/KG. THUS WILL SHOW AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FOR
ONLY A SMALL PART OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE...PRIMARILY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEABREEZE WITH PERHAPS A
SPOTTY POP-UP THUNDERSTORM INLAND IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH. THE HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL IS ALSO SHOWING VERY LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...STRONG MID TO UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH MID WEEK CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH PLENTY
OF SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AT THE LOW
LEVELS THOUGH TO COMBINE WITH STRONG HEATING OF THE DAY TO PRODUCE
LOCALIZED CONVECTION ALONG SEA BREEZE...PIEDMONT TROUGH AND OTHER
CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES. WINDS UP THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY WEAK WITH A LIGHT STEERING FLOW OUT OF THE W-NW AND SFC
WINDS GENERALLY DOMINATED BY SEA/LAND BREEZE. IT WILL BE THE
SUBTLE CHANGES IN WINDS AND MOISTURE THAT WILL DICTATE THE CHANGE
IN CONVECTION EACH DAY. A FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE SOUTH WILL
NOT MAKE IT INTO THE AREA BUT SOME ADDED MOISTURE WILL ADVECT
SOUTHWARD MAY ADD TO CONVECTION ON WED WITH PCP WATER VALUES
REACHING UP CLOSER TO 2 INCHES POOLING ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE STRONG
RIDGE OVERHEAD AND H5 HEIGHTS UP NEAR 594 DEM AS WELL AS A
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND. LOOKS LIKE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
AND 850 TEMPS WILL PEAK ON TUES AND THEREFORE EXPECT WARMEST TEMPS
THIS DAY WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING TEMPS CLOSER TO THE COAST NEAR 100
AND TEMPS INLAND A FEW DEGREES HIGHER. THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
WILL KEEP DEWPOINT TEMPS UP IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WHICH IN
TURN WILL PRODUCE VERY HIGH HEAT INDICES AND MAINTAIN VERY WARM
OVERNIGHT TEMPS. HEAT INDICES ON TUE WILL REACH HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA ONCE AGAIN BUT WED MY FALL JUST SHY. POTENTIAL FOR AN
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WILL EXIST ON TUES WITH HEAT INDICES UP TO
110F IN SPOTS. LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL UP IN THE 70S TO AROUND
80.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...RIDGE HOLDS TOUGH FOR THE MOST PART BUT DOES
GET SUPPRESSED SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND EAST ALLOWING FOR SOME H5 HEIGHT
FALLS AND POSSIBLY SOME PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW ALOFT TO RIDE
OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. OVERALL EXPECT VERY WARM WEATHER TO
CONTINUE WITH LOCALIZED CONVECTION MOST DAYS FOCUSED ALONG SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY AND PIEDMONT TROUGH. GFS DOES INDICATE A
SHORTWAVE PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE CAROLINAS ON SAT INTO SUN
WITH A STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT AND BETTER CHC FOR
CONVECTION SAT AFTN INTO THE EVE. TEMPS WILL RUN SLIGHTLY LOWER
TOWARDS THE WEEKEND WITH MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S AS COMPARED
TO MID 90S TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS
HOLDING CLOSER TO 70 OR SO...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO REMAIN IN
THE MID 70S MOST PLACES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...NEARLY CLEAR SKIES/VFR EXPECTED THROUGH SUNRISE.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SW OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING LIGHT
W-WNW TOWARDS SUNRISE. FEW- SCT CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE S WITH THE SEA BREEZE LATE
MORNING AT KCRE AND IN THE AFTERNOON AT KMYR AND KILM. ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ATTM ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE PINNED NEAR THE COAST AND ALONG THE WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH
LOCATED NEAR THE INLAND TERMINALS. WILL ONLY INDICATE VCSH ATTM.
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND 00Z.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONCERT WITH A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WILL
INCLUDE THE MORNING LAND BREEZE AND THE NEARLY PINNED AFTERNOON
AND EVE SEABREEZE. THE WIND DIRECTION TO START THE PERIOD WILL BE
FROM THE W AT LESS THAN 10 KT. SW WINDS WILL RETURN BY LATE
MORNING AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...BUT
BECOMING S ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS FOR A TIME LATER THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO SEABREEZE INFLUENCES. WIND SPEEDS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE 10 TO 15 KT...WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVE DUE TO SEABREEZE INFLUENCES AND TONIGHT THROUGHOUT AS SOME
NOCTURNAL JETTING RETURNS. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT TODAY WITH SOME 3 FT
SEAS DEVELOPING LATER IN THE DAY AND BECOMING MORE PREVALENT
TONIGHT. A WEAK 9 TO 11 SECOND SE SWELL WILL BE PRESENT.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT PREVAILING WINDS WILL ALLOW
SEA/LAND BREEZE TO DOMINATE THE FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH MID
WEEK. A WEAKENED BOUNDARY MAY GET A PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO
PRODUCE A SHIFT IN WINDS TO THE N-NE AND EAST THROUGH WED. WINDS
WILL BE 10 TO 15 KT FOR THE MOST PART...BUT MAY BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER ON WED. SEAS BASICALLY 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A
LONGER PERIOD UP TO 11 SEC SOUTHEAST SWELL MIXING IN WITH THE
SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN WITH LAND/SEA
BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH DRIVING THE WINDS EACH AFTN/EVE. WINDS
MAY REACH UP TO 15 KT ON FRI PRODUCING A SLIGHT RISE IN SEAS UP
TO 3 TO 4 FT. GRADIENT TIGHTENS FURTHER HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND
AND SHOULD SEE SW WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KT BY SATURDAY WHICH IN
TURN SHOULD PUSH THE SEAS UP TO 3 TO 5 FT.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...
ALTHOUGH THIS MAY NOT BE RECORD-BREAKING HEAT IT`S STILL THE
FIRST TIME IN ALMOST 3 YEARS WE`VE HAD THESE KIND OF TEMPERATURES
IN THE FORECAST.
97 98 99 100 101 102 103
WILMINGTON 6/14/15 7/27/12 7/27/12 7/27/12 7/27/12 6/30/12 6/30/12
MYRTLE BEACH 6/14/15 7/24/12 7/28/05 7/27/05 7/27/05 8/17/54 8/17/54
FLORENCE 6/14/15 6/14/15 6/14/15 7/09/14 7/26/12 7/09/12 7/01/12
THIS IS ALSO AVAILABLE GRAPHICALLY ON OUR FACEBOOK & TWITTER PAGES
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053>056.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...RJD/MRR
CLIMATE...TRA/RJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
424 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH MID WEEK.
THE WORST OF THE HEAT WAVE IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOMEWHAT
LOWER TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO WEAKEN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS
WEEK WILL BE ISOLATED.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...TODAY WILL BE MORE OPPRESSIVE THAN THE WEEKEND
AND TUE LOOKS TO BE THE PEAK OF THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. A HEAT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR LATE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY EVE. THE HEAT INDEX WILL COMMONLY REACH 105 TO 107 DEG
AND A FEW SPOTS MAY TOP THAT FOR AN HOUR.
TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL RISE TO ABOUT 21 DEG C TODAY. THIS IS A DEG
HIGHER THAN ON SUN. ON SUN...INLAND THERMOMETERS REGISTERED UPPER
90S AND A FEW SPOTS...LIKE LBT...REACHED OR JUST EXCEEDED 100 DEG.
LOCATIONS NEARER TO THE COAST WERE ALSO HOT...MAINLY UPPER 90S WITH
LOWER TO MID 90S AT THE BEACHES. AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BUILD...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT LEAST AS HOT AS ON SUN IF NOT A
DEG OR TWO HIGHER IN MOST LOCATIONS. WE ARE FORECASTING WIDESPREAD
HIGHS AROUND 100 DEG INLAND. THE MORE COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 90S WITH LOWER TO MID 90S CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE
BEACHES. THE SEABREEZE SHOULD MAKE SOME INLAND PROGRESS GIVEN THE
LIGHT W TO SW FLOW IN THE LOWEST 3 K FT. HOWEVER...THIS WILL ONLY
SERVE TO KEEP COASTAL DEWPOINTS ELEVATED OR INCREASE THEM SLIGHTLY
WHICH WILL ONLY ADD TO THE DISCOMFORT LEVEL.
RECORD HIGHS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO REACH OR EXCEED TODAY...BUT THERE
IS A POSSIBILITY IN SOME LOCATIONS.
THE RECORD HIGH AT FLO IS 104 SET IN 1981 AND THE FORECAST HIGH FOR
TODAY IS 102.
THE RECORD HIGH AT ILM IS 100 SET IN 1880 AND THE FORECAST HIGH FOR
TODAY IS 99.
THE RECORD HIGH AT CRE IS 98 SET IN 2010 AND THE FORECAST HIGH FOR
TODAY IS 96.
TEMPS AFTER SUNSET WILL BE VERY WARM WITH MANY PLACES STILL IN THE
LOWER 80S AROUND MIDNIGHT. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE MID AND UPPER
70S AND THE BEACHES MAY NOT DROP BELOW 80 DEG.
AS THE HEAT HAS BUILT...THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR LESS IN THE WAY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH EACH PASSING DAY. THE SUBSIDENCE WILL
BE EVEN GREATER TODAY THAN ON SUN AND TEMPS IN THE MID LEVELS WILL
REMAIN SIMILAR. HOWEVER...VERY STRONG HEATING WILL INCREASE
INSTABILITY WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH 1500 TO
2000 J/KG. THUS WILL SHOW AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FOR
ONLY A SMALL PART OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE...PRIMARILY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEABREEZE WITH PERHAPS A
SPOTTY POP-UP THUNDERSTORM INLAND IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH. THE HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL IS ALSO SHOWING VERY LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...STRONG MID TO UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH MID WEEK CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH PLENTY
OF SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AT THE LOW
LEVELS THOUGH TO COMBINE WITH STRONG HEATING OF THE DAY TO PRODUCE
LOCALIZED CONVECTION ALONG SEA BREEZE...PIEDMONT TROUGH AND OTHER
CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES. WINDS UP THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY WEAK WITH A LIGHT STEERING FLOW OUT OF THE W-NW AND SFC
WINDS GENERALLY DOMINATED BY SEA/LAND BREEZE. IT WILL BE THE
SUBTLE CHANGES IN WINDS AND MOISTURE THAT WILL DICTATE THE CHANGE
IN CONVECTION EACH DAY. A FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE SOUTH WILL
NOT MAKE IT INTO THE AREA BUT SOME ADDED MOISTURE WILL ADVECT
SOUTHWARD MAY ADD TO CONVECTION ON WED WITH PCP WATER VALUES
REACHING UP CLOSER TO 2 INCHES POOLING ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE STRONG
RIDGE OVERHEAD AND H5 HEIGHTS UP NEAR 594 DEM AS WELL AS A
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND. LOOKS LIKE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
AND 850 TEMPS WILL PEAK ON TUES AND THEREFORE EXPECT WARMEST TEMPS
THIS DAY WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING TEMPS CLOSER TO THE COAST NEAR 100
AND TEMPS INLAND A FEW DEGREES HIGHER. THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
WILL KEEP DEWPOINT TEMPS UP IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WHICH IN
TURN WILL PRODUCE VERY HIGH HEAT INDICES AND MAINTAIN VERY WARM
OVERNIGHT TEMPS. HEAT INDICES ON TUE WILL REACH HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA ONCE AGAIN BUT WED MY FALL JUST SHY. POTENTIAL FOR AN
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WILL EXIST ON TUES WITH HEAT INDICES UP TO
110F IN SPOTS. LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL UP IN THE 70S TO AROUND
80.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...RIDGE HOLDS TOUGH FOR THE MOST PART BUT DOES
GET SUPPRESSED SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND EAST ALLOWING FOR SOME H5 HEIGHT
FALLS AND POSSIBLY SOME PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW ALOFT TO RIDE
OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. OVERALL EXPECT VERY WARM WEATHER TO
CONTINUE WITH LOCALIZED CONVECTION MOST DAYS FOCUSED ALONG SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY AND PIEDMONT TROUGH. GFS DOES INDICATE A
SHORTWAVE PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE CAROLINAS ON SAT INTO SUN
WITH A STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT AND BETTER CHC FOR
CONVECTION SAT AFTN INTO THE EVE. TEMPS WILL RUN SLIGHTLY LOWER
TOWARDS THE WEEKEND WITH MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S AS COMPARED
TO MID 90S TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS
HOLDING CLOSER TO 70 OR SO...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO REMAIN IN
THE MID 70S MOST PLACES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...NEARLY CLEAR SKIES/VFR EXPECTED THROUGH SUNRISE. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT SW OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING LIGHT W-WNW
TOWARDS SUNRISE. FEW-SCT CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING. WINDS
WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE S WITH THE SEA BREEZE LATE MORNING AT KCRE
AND IN THE AFTERNOON AT KMYR AND KILM. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ATTM ALONG THE SEA BREEZE PINNED NEAR THE
COAST AND ALONG THE WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH LOCATED NEAR THE INLAND
TERMINALS. WILL ONLY INDICATE VCSH ATTM. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND 00Z.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONCERT WITH A LARGE
UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WILL INCLUDE
THE MORNING LAND BREEZE AND THE NEARLY PINNED AFTERNOON AND EVE
SEABREEZE. THE WIND DIRECTION TO START THE PERIOD WILL BE FROM THE W
AT LESS THAN 10 KT. SW WINDS WILL RETURN BY LATE MORNING AND THEN
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE 10 TO 15 KT...WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE DUE
TO SEABREEZE INFLUENCES AND TONIGHT AS SOME NOCTURNAL JETTING
RETURNS. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT TODAY WITH SOME 3 FT SEAS DEVELOPING
LATER IN THE DAY AND BECOMING MORE PREVALENT TONIGHT. A WEAK 9 TO 11
SECOND SE SWELL WILL BE PRESENT.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT PREVAILING WINDS WILL ALLOW
SEA/LAND BREEZE TO DOMINATE THE FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH MID
WEEK. A WEAKENED BOUNDARY MAY GET A PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO
PRODUCE A SHIFT IN WINDS TO THE N-NE AND EAST THROUGH WED. WINDS
WILL BE 10 TO 15 KTS FOR THE MOST PART...BUT MAY BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER ON WED. SEAS BASICALLY 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A
LONGER PERIOD UP TO 11 SEC SOUTHEAST SWELL MIXING IN WITH THE
SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN WITH LAND/SEA
BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH DRIVING THE WINDS EACH AFTN/EVE. WINDS
MAY REACH UP TO 15 KTS ON FRI PRODUCING A SLIGHT RISE IN SEAS UP
TO 3 TO 4 FT. GRADIENT TIGHTENS FURTHER HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND
AND SHOULD SEE SW WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS BY SATURDAY WHICH IN
TURN SHOULD PUSH THE SEAS UP TO 3 TO 5 FT.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...
ALTHOUGH THIS MAY NOT BE RECORD-BREAKING HEAT IT`S STILL THE
FIRST TIME IN ALMOST 3 YEARS WE`VE HAD THESE KIND OF TEMPERATURES
IN THE FORECAST.
97 98 99 100 101 102 103
WILMINGTON 6/14/15 7/27/12 7/27/12 7/27/12 7/27/12 6/30/12 6/30/12
MYRTLE BEACH 6/14/15 7/24/12 7/28/05 7/27/05 7/27/05 8/17/54 8/17/54
FLORENCE 6/13/15 9/02/14 6/14/15 7/09/14 7/26/12 7/09/12 7/01/12
THIS IS ALSO AVAILABLE GRAPHICALLY ON OUR FACEBOOK & TWITTER PAGES
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053>056.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...RJD/MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
935 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
FOR THIS UPDATE...TRIMMED BACK CLOUD COVER IN THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS. HRRR MODEL OUTPUT SEEMS
TO AGREE WITH THIS PROGRESSION AND USED IT AS GUIDANCE FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. ALSO DECREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST
AS MOST OF THE SHOWERS HAVE EITHER MOVED OUT OF THE AREA OR
DISSIPATED. THE ONLY OTHER CHANGE THAT WAS MADE WAS TO DELAY THE
ONSET OF HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. TRIMMED PRECIP CHANCES IN THE EAST BASED
ON RADAR TRENDS AND TOOK THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE ONGOING
SHOWERS IN THE NEAR TERM...CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT...THEN CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY.
CURRENTLY...QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT REMAINS WITH AN EMBEDDED S/WV
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA WITH A SFC RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. AREA OF
MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE SOUTHWEST NOW
MAINLY DRY. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE FROM WEST TO EAST THOUGH THE
DAY WITH PRECIP ENDING AT KBIS MOMENTARILY...AND THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY THIS EVENING. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTHWEST...ALTHOUGH THIS IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY THE LONGER
STRATUS REMAINS IN PLACE.
EMBEDDED WAVE EXITS OFF TO OUR EAST LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS ALL OF WEST AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ALL MODELS INDICATING STRATUS FIELD
EXPANDING ACROSS MOST IF NOT ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AFTER 00Z...SO SKY COVER WAS KEPT ELEVATED TONIGHT WHICH
WILL IN TURN KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY MODERATE IN THE UPPER
40S/LOW 50S. WITH HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE AND WITH
RECENT MODERATE RAINFALL...FOG IS FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY THE
STRATUS/DEVELOP FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
WHERE THE RAIN FELL. HIGH RES MODELS INDICATING POSSIBLE DENSE FOG
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...SO
THIS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE HEADLINES.
STRATUS AND FOG BURN OFF MOST AREAS 12-15Z TOMORROW
MORNING...LINGERING ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND JAMES
RIVER VALLEY TILL LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
STRONG MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
CANADA WILL PUSH A SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHEAST INTO
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
MUCAPE WILL ACCOMPANY THE FROPA SO WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AN ACTIVE
QUASI-ZONAL PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT EVERY
18 TO 36 HOURS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSES MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
STATE. LIMITED CAPE WITH THE NAM DEPICTING 100-500 J/KG AND THE GFS
ZERO.
THURSDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH
LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. INSTABILITY INCREASES IN THE
WEST WITH TIME DURING THE DAY AS THE NEXT STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WAVE MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WIND SHEAR INCREASES
WITH SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE TO H850 WINDS AND SOUTHWESTERLY H700
WINDS...BUT THE BEST CAPE REMAINS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE STATE.
STILL...COULD BE STRONG STORMS IN THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY NIGHT YET ANOTHER STRONGER SET OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WAVES
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE STATE. HAVE HIGH CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WIND SHEAR INCREASES FURTHER WITH
OVER 60 KNOTS OF SHEAR - SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS...A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WITH SOUTHERLY H850 WINDS AT 30-
45 KNOTS AND SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY H700 WINDS. THE LIMITING FACTOR
FOR SEVERE STORMS IS MOST UNSTABLE CAPE...WITH VALUES REACHING 1000
J/KG OVER SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...BUT MUCH
STRONGER VALUES FARTHER SOUTH. STILL...COULD BE SOME STRONG STORMS
SOUTHWEST AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL.
FRIDAY IS WHEN THE STRONG/HIGH CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES COINCIDE OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL JET
MOVES/DEVELOPS INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THE STRONGEST STORMS FOR
OUR AREA MAY BE THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON
FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY EVENING THE LOW LEVEL JET IS INTO
MINNESOTA...HOWEVER THE NEXT ROUND OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSES
MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY STRONG...FRIDAY NIGHT FOR WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST NEARLY
EACH PERIOD SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WERE MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. LINGERING SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER KJMS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO BRING PERIODS OF IFR
CIGS/VSBYS TO ALL SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KISN. FOG SHOULD
START TO DISSIPATE IN THE 14-16Z TIME FRAME...GIVING WAY TO MVFR
AND VFR CONDITIONS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ZH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...ZH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
658 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
THE RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST
THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE SOME RE-DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WITH AN INCREASING LLJ OVERNIGHT INTO THE
SOUTH. WE WILL ADD SOME MORE FOG TO THE GRIDS LATE TONIGHT...WITH
THE HRRR INDICATING SOME LOW VSBYS POSSIBLE FROM THE VALLEY WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
MAIN CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE THE ONGOING PCPN...HOW FAR NORTH
DOES IT GET AND HOW MUCH ACTUALLY FALLS. AS OF 3 PM SEEING THE
PCPN MAINLY STAYING ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 AS EXPECTED.
AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN ON THE LIGHT SIDE FOR MOST OF THE FA SO FAR.
KJMS HAS PICKED UP ABOUT A HALF AN INCH...BUT KFAR ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS SO FAR. 88D ESTIMATING ABOUT A QUARTER OR MORE FROM
WAHPETON TO VALLEY CITY. MODELS SLOWLY MOVE THIS AREA OF PCPN
EASTWARD TONIGHT...STILL KEEPING IT ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2.
WPC HAS BACKED OFF A BIT ON QPF AMOUNTS...GIVING SYSTEM TOTALS OF
A QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH. KEPT A MENTION OF PCPN THRU WED
MORNING ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS MOVE IT OUT A LITTLE SOONER. ONLY
KEPT A MENTION OF THUNDER LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING WHEN
MODELS STILL TRY TO NOSE UP NEGATIVE SHOWALTER INDICES INTO OUR
FAR SOUTHEAST. MAY ALSO BE SOME FOG FORMATION LATE ACROSS THE SW
FA. WED HIGHS SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER IN THE WEST/NW UNLESS FOG
OR STRATUS LINGERS FROM THE EARLY MORNING. NEXT COLD FRONT STILL
DROPS SOUTHWARD OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA ON WED NIGHT WHICH COULD
BRING A LITTLE PCPN TO AREAS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. SOME
INSTABILITY PRESENT BUT IT SEEMS TO DISAPPEAR PRETTY QUICKLY. DID
KEEP THE ISOLATED THUNDER THAT WAS MENTIONED.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THU ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL STAY ON THE
COOL SIDE. NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN LOOKS TO BE THU NIGHT ACROSS THE
WESTERN FA...THEN CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY AS WELL. MODELS STILL ALL
OVER THE BOARD WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS. THE GFS WOULD REALLY HAMMER
THE SOUTHERN FA...SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
OTHER MODELS NOT NEARLY SO BAD...SO JURY STILL OUT FOR FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
THERE SHOULD BE AN EXPANSION OF THE IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS OVER
CENTRAL ND INTO EASTERN ND OVERNIGHT. HAVE STARTED TO MENTION SOME
LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WITH SOME PATCHY FOG LATER TONIGHT ALONG AND WEST
OF THE VALLEY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT
WESTERLY ON WED...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY AFTERNOON
FROM WEST TO EAST.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/TG
AVIATION...DK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1112 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
WE WILL DO A QUICK UPDATE TO ADD ISOLATED SHOWERS TO NE ND AND NW
MN THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR AND OTHER CAM MODELS INDICATE SOME
SHALLOW CONVECTION AND SHOWERS...SO WILL ADD MENTION OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITH COLD POOL ALOFT. THERE IS NO INSTABILITY TO SPEAK
OF...WITH PERHAPS 100-200J/KG OF CAPE PERHAPS...SO CAN/T RULE OUT
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES...IT SHOULD MAINLY BE SHOWERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TEMPERATURES AND RAIN
CHANCES/COVERAGE LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH MAIN DIFFERENCES BEING NORTHWARD EXTENT OF RAIN
DURING NEXT EVENT.
FOR TODAY HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COOL AIRMASS WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S NORTH TO
UPPER 60S S WITH SHALLOW MOIST LAYER AOB 800MB SO EXPECTING CU
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY HAVE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES.
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER FA TONIGHT. WITH SKC AND LIGHT WINDS MOST
AREAS WILL SEE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S.
NEXT WAVE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE DAY.
EXPECT RAIN TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ADVANCING
CLOUDS WILL OFFSET RETURN FLOW/WARM ADVECTION FOR ANOTHER COOL
DAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
RAIN AREA WILL SPREAD EAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH BEST POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE SOUTH. WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT INCREASED POPS THERE.
UNSURE OF NORTHWARD EXTENT OF RAIN SHIELD BUT AT MINIMUM
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA SHOULD STAY DRY. SOME NEGATIVE
SHOWALTERS CLIP ND/SD BORDER AREA SO INCLUDED THUNDER THERE WITH
REMAINDER OF THE FA JUST RAIN THROUGH THE EVENT.
ANY LINGERING RA ACROSS THE SE FA SHOULD CLEAR BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION SO IF WE CAN GET SOME
SOLAR TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET ABOVE 70.
MODELS DIFFER ON RAIN POTENTIAL ALONG CANADIAN BORDER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SO NO CHANGES MADE.
LONG WAVE PATTERN REMAINS SPLIT WITH NORTHERN STREAM OVER CENTRAL
CANADA AND SOUTHERN STREAM OVER THE NORTHERN STATES. LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA EXPANDS FARTHER EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RIDGE TROUGH COUPLET OVER BERING STRAITS AND THE WEST COAST OF
CANADA WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING OCCURS OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AFTER DAY 5.
THE ECMWF WAS SLOWING DOWN OVER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS WHILE THE
GFS WAS BECOMING FASTER. WILL BLEND THE GFS AND THE ECMWF.
HIGH TEMPS WERE DECREASED ONE OF TWO DEGREES FOR THU AND FRI. LITTLE
CHANGE ON SAT AND SUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
WILL SEE VFR CU FIELD DEVELOP LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1252 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. EVENING SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
AND MANITOBA ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO
MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH TOWARDS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. MODELS
INDICATE THESE CLOUDS ENCROACHING INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA 12-15
UTC MONDAY...WITH SOME DISCREPANCIES ABOUT HOW QUICKLY THEY WILL
ERODE. FOR NOW WE DID BUMP UP SKY COVER A LITTLE MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE NORTH. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 906 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS DWINDLING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AHEAD OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT...LOCATED FROM PEMBINA TO
GRAFTON...STRETCHING SOUTHWEST INTO GARRISON TO NEAR GRASSY
BUTTE. CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE FRONT SAGGING
SOUTH TO THE BORDER THROUGH 06Z. EXPECT A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AFTER
SUNSET.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 515 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF WEAK 3HR PRESSURE FALLS
CONFINED MOSTLY TO SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A 90KT-100KT JETSTREAK PER LATEST
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA
ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SECONDARY/WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHING
FROM BRANDON MANITOBA/CYBR...TO MINOT/KMOT...AND WEST TO
SIDNEY/KSDY MONTANA. RESULTANT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS PULSATING UP AND DOWN PER LATEST REGIONAL/KMOT RADAR
CONTINUES OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL. THE LATEST HRRR VERIFYING WELL
AND REMAINS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH
WEAKENS/DISSIPATES THE SHOWERS THROUGH 03Z MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO SAG TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER BETWEEN 06Z-09Z WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. INHERITED FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN DRY AND
COOL WEATHER FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.
CURRENTLY...QUASI-ZONAL/CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A SECONDARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AS
HIGH RES MODELS EARLIER INDICATED. HRRR AND 4KM NMM WRF GENERATE
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST
OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SO EXPECT WEATHER TRENDING DRY THROUGH THE
EVENING.
FLOW ALOFT REMAINS QUASI-ZONAL WITH DRY AND COOL SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. RESULTANT WEATHER WILL BE PLEASANT...HIGHS 65-75...LIGHT
WINDS...AND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY LOOKS ACTIVE WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVERYDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS. INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...WITH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOWING MINIMAL CAPE AND SHOWALTER
INDICES ABOVE ZERO. THEREFORE...REMOVED THE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY...WITH PRIMARILY RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY.
WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK...SEVERAL FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS
WILL SWING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVERY DAY OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
ADDITIONALLY...WITH SEVERAL COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THIS
WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
FOR THE 06 UTC TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE PERIOD
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. MAINLY LOW VFR CLOUDS BUT SOME SCATTERED
MVFR CLOUDS AS WELL ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA WILL
MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA 12-15 UTC MONDAY...THEN
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES OF KDIK...KBIS AND KJMS AROUND 18
UTC MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES ASSOCIATED WITH HOW
QUICKLY THESE CLOUDS WILL ERODE DURING THE DAY MONDAY. MODEL BUFR
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BETWEEN 850-700MB
OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. FOR NOW WILL MENTION A BROKEN LAYER
OF VFR CEILINGS MONDAY BUT WILL NOT MENTION ANY MVFR CEILINGS.
NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHEAST 00-06Z TUESDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1149 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
LIGHT WINDS OVER THE RRV INTO NW MN AND CLEARING HAS PRODUCED SOME
PATCHY FOG IN THE USUAL AREAS..I.E. BEMIDJI. ADDED PATCHY FOG IN
THAT AREA. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
CURRENT SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS AXIS OF A 1000 PLUS J/KG MXD LYR
CAPE ALONG THE SD/MN STATE LINE WITH 500 TO 1000 J/KG EXTENDING
INTO CENTRAL MN AND CLIPPING THE FAR SE...HOWEVER THAT AREA IS NOW
CLOUD COVERED AND INSTABILITY SHOULD DECREASE THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTN. RADAR TRENDS SHOW REMAINING ACTIVITY MOVING INTO
NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WITH EASTERN ND CLEARING OUT AND
RECEIVING SUNSHINE. LAST HRRR UPDATE FOR 1 PM FCST HAD GOOD HANDLE
ON THESE TRENDS AND WILL NOT NEED MUCH CHANGE...BUT WILL UPDATE
NEAR TERM WITH LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE PRIOR TO FCST ISSUANCE. THERE
IS CLEARNING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND SOME CU AND MID LEVEL CLOUD
EVIDENT AS A NORTHERN VORT MAX MOVES IN TO SRN MB...HOWEVER THERE
IS VIRTUALLY NO CAPE IN THE AREA. A CELL DID DEVELOP NORTH OF
MINOT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE MORE THAN ISOLD TO WIDELY
SCT. MOST LIKELY AREA FOR ANY ISOLD STORMS WOULD BE DVL REGION UP
TO THE INTL BORDER.
SFC HIGH DROPS INTO REGION ON MONDAY AND SHOULD BRING SUNNY SKIES
BUT A COOL CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S DURING THE DAY...AND CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 40S AS
THE SFC HIGH IS RIGHT OVER THE VALLEY AT 06Z TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
TUE AND WED...WARM ADVECTION PRECIP SPREADS MAINLY ACROSS SD
DURING THE DAY TUE AND LIFTS IN TO OUR CWA BY LATE TUE AFTN.
SHOWALTERS REMAIN 4 OR GREATER WITH MEAN LYR CAPES LESS THAN 100
IN THE FAR SOUTH...SO HAVE CHANGED PRECIP TYPE OVER TO SHRA.
PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO PULL PRECIP OUT OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST LATE WED
AFTN INTO WED NIGHT.
BEYOND TUE/WED SHRA ACTIVITY...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION WILL COME ON FRIDAY. THE GFS IS PROGGING A STRONG SFC
LOW AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THE ECMWF ALSO HAS
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SHOWERS AND STORMS...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS
UNSTABLE AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH DEEP MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD START
OUT A BIT BELOW NORMAL AND WARM TO NEAR NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
PATCHY GROUND FOG AT BEMIDJI AND MAYBE THIEF RIVER OVERNIGHT SO
ADDED TEMPO FOR 1SM VSBY. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT BECOMING NORTHWEST
10 TO 20 KTS ON MONDAY. CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP MID MORNING BECOMING
BROKEN DECK IN THE 4-6K FT RANGE MIDDAY AND AFTN. THEN CLEAR EARLY
EVENING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...DK/SPEICHER
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
137 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AREAWIDE...WITH A BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH. UPPER HIGH
EDGES IN FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT EDGES
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA TUESDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ENTERING THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES
WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
OTHERWISE...AWAITING THE CONVECTION TO FIRE WITH THE HEATING
TODAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY. RUC
HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON A DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO AND NORTHERN WV THIS MORNING...SO WILL RELY ON THE RUC FOR
MORNING POPS. BY THIS AFTERNOON...EACH MODEL VARIES ON THE PLACEMENT
OF CONVECTION. SINCE DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST...WILL RUN THE HIGHEST POPS IN THIS REGION AND RUN LOWER
POPS IN THE SOUTH WHERE SOME DRIER AIR IS TRYING TO INTRUDE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN ACTIVE SHORT TERM ON
TAP WITH A BUILDING WATER ISSUE ACROSS SE OH AND N WV.
TUES LOOKS TO BE AN ACTIVE DAY AS A DAMPENING S/W TROF ATTEMPTS TO
BEAT BACK THE UPPER RIDGE ENOUGH TO ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SAG INTO
THE CWA. AS A RESULT WILL CONTINUE THE LIKELY POPS FROM PREVIOUS
FCST CENTERED OVER SE OH AND N HALF OF WV...PRIMED DURING MAX
HEATING HRS. SOME STRONG TO SVR STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS
SPC HAS PLACED AREAS N OF I64 IN SLIGHT RISK.
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL TRY TO MAKE IT DOWN TO US 50 CORRIDOR
BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY BY TUES NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS SE OH AND N WV LOWLANDS TUESDAY GIVEN
HIGH PWATS AND POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING ALONG THE SAGGING FRONT. SOME
OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BEGINS TO WANE TUES NIGHT SO THINK THE
OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL FOLLOW SUITE AND TEND TO
FOCUS JUST ON THE BOUNDARY.
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE HEADING INTO WED WITH HOW THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN PLAYS OUT. THE MORE AMPLIFIED NAM TAKES A STOUT S/W TROF OUT
OF THE S PLAINS WHICH ALLOWS THE RIDGE TO BUILD BACK N AND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO HEAD BACK N AS WELL AND WASH OUT. THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE MUCH MORE TAME WITH THIS DISTURBANCE AND HOLD DOWN THE
RIDGE...ALLOWING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO REMAIN DRAPED OVER N
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL TRY TO PLAY A MIDDLE ROAD SOLUTION WHICH
SEEMS TO BETTER REFLECT THE NEW EURO SOLUTION. THIS ALLOWS FOR MORE
STORMS OVER SE OH AND N WV WITH LOWER CHANCES S OF I64 CORRIDOR.
THINGS TRY TO QUIET SOME WED NIGHT BUT WITH THE FRONT STILL
AROUND...KEPT SOME HIGHER POPS IN OVER SE OH AND N WV.
THU APPEARS TO BE AN ACTIVE DAY WAS WELL AT LEAST FOR SE OH WITH THE
LINGERING BOUNDARY AND CONTINUED DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION ROUNDING
THE TOP OF THE A BEATEN DOWN RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO MET/SREF/PREVIOUS WITH THE MAV LOOKING A BIT
TOO LOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WE HAVE LOST THE GFS SOLUTION SHOWING A BREAK IN THE WEATHER FRI INTO
SAT. WHILE A LARGE NRN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL CROSSES ERN
CANADA THU INTO THU NT...IT DOES NOT DIG AS FAR S AS PREVIOUSLY
PROGGED...AND THE COLD FRONT AND CANADIAN HIGH DO NOT GET AS FAR S
EITHER...SO THE FCST AREA STAYS IN THE SOUP. IT DOES STILL SHOW A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE DEEP S LIFTING OUT AND REACHING THE
FCST AREA THU...SO THIS STILL LOOKS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY. STILL
TRIED TO STAY AWAY FROM WPC CAT POPS. BUT HAVE LIKELY MUCH OF THE
DAY.
THE ECMWF HOLDS THAT S/W TROUGH BACK UNTIL FRI NT/SAT. OTHERWISE THE
MODELS BASICALLY SHOW A CONTINUATION OF THE GENERAL PATTERN. THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH SLOWLY EASES OFF THE SE COAST...WHICH ALLOWS THE
BOTTOM OF THE WESTERLIES TO SAG A BIT FARTHER SWD...INTO THE FCST
AREA...NEXT WEEKEND.
LITTLE CHANGES NEED TO TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE MOSTLY A BLEND OF
PREVIOUS...WPC AND THE MEX.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS SET THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON IN
TERMS OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE TERMINALS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. TIMING BEYOND WHAT IS IMMEDIATELY OCCURRING AND
PROJECTING THE ARRIVAL TIME IS TRICKY...SO HAVE USED VCTS QUITE A
BIT CONSIDERING THE EXPECTED NEW DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.
ALSO HAVE KEPT CONDITIONS MVFR...ALTHOUGH IFR HITS AND MISSES ARE
LIKELY BASED ON FLUCTUATIONS IN THE VISIBILITIES IN STORMS.
FOG WILL BE DIFFICULT TO COME BY TONIGHT WITH EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER. ONLY TAKE EKN DOWN TO IFR.
MORE CONVECTION EXPECTED TUESDAY AS THE PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF
CONVECTION...EXACT TIMING AND INTENSITY IS NOT INCLUDED IN THE
TAFS. AMENDMENTS LIKELY.
.AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF MORNING FOG WILL DEPENDS OF LOCATIONS THAT
GET RAIN AND CAN CLEAR OUT AT NIGHT.
&&
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...FB/RPY/26
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JSH/TRM
AVIATION...26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1006 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AREAWIDE...WITH A BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH. UPPER HIGH
EDGES IN FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT EDGES
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA TUESDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ENTERING THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES
WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
OTHERWISE...AWAITING THE CONVECTION TO FIRE WITH THE HEATING
TODAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY. RUC
HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON A DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO AND NORTHERN WV THIS MORNING...SO WILL RELY ON THE RUC FOR
MORNING POPS. BY THIS AFTERNOON...EACH MODEL VARIES ON THE PLACEMENT
OF CONVECTION. SINCE DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST...WILL RUN THE HIGHEST POPS IN THIS REGION AND RUN LOWER
POPS IN THE SOUTH WHERE SOME DRIER AIR IS TRYING TO INTRUDE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN ACTIVE SHORT TERM ON
TAP WITH A BUILDING WATER ISSUE ACROSS SE OH AND N WV.
TUES LOOKS TO BE AN ACTIVE DAY AS A DAMPENING S/W TROF ATTEMPTS TO
BEAT BACK THE UPPER RIDGE ENOUGH TO ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SAG INTO
THE CWA. AS A RESULT WILL CONTINUE THE LIKELY POPS FROM PREVIOUS
FCST CENTERED OVER SE OH AND N HALF OF WV...PRIMED DURING MAX
HEATING HRS. SOME STRONG TO SVR STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS
SPC HAS PLACED AREAS N OF I64 IN SLIGHT RISK.
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL TRY TO MAKE IT DOWN TO US 50 CORRIDOR
BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY BY TUES NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS SE OH AND N WV LOWLANDS TUESDAY GIVEN
HIGH PWATS AND POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING ALONG THE SAGGING FRONT. SOME
OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BEGINS TO WANE TUES NIGHT SO THINK THE
OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL FOLLOW SUITE AND TEND TO
FOCUS JUST ON THE BOUNDARY.
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE HEADING INTO WED WITH HOW THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN PLAYS OUT. THE MORE AMPLIFIED NAM TAKES A STOUT S/W TROF OUT
OF THE S PLAINS WHICH ALLOWS THE RIDGE TO BUILD BACK N AND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO HEAD BACK N AS WELL AND WASH OUT. THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE MUCH MORE TAME WITH THIS DISTURBANCE AND HOLD DOWN THE
RIDGE...ALLOWING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO REMAIN DRAPED OVER N
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL TRY TO PLAY A MIDDLE ROAD SOLUTION WHICH
SEEMS TO BETTER REFLECT THE NEW EURO SOLUTION. THIS ALLOWS FOR MORE
STORMS OVER SE OH AND N WV WITH LOWER CHANCES S OF I64 CORRIDOR.
THINGS TRY TO QUIET SOME WED NIGHT BUT WITH THE FRONT STILL
AROUND...KEPT SOME HIGHER POPS IN OVER SE OH AND N WV.
THU APPEARS TO BE AN ACTIVE DAY WAS WELL AT LEAST FOR SE OH WITH THE
LINGERING BOUNDARY AND CONTINUED DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION ROUNDING
THE TOP OF THE A BEATEN DOWN RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO MET/SREF/PREVIOUS WITH THE MAV LOOKING A BIT
TOO LOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WE HAVE LOST THE GFS SOLUTION SHOWING A BREAK IN THE WEATHER FRI INTO
SAT. WHILE A LARGE NRN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL CROSSES ERN
CANADA THU INTO THU NT...IT DOES NOT DIG AS FAR S AS PREVIOUSLY
PROGGED...AND THE COLD FRONT AND CANADIAN HIGH DO NOT GET AS FAR S
EITHER...SO THE FCST AREA STAYS IN THE SOUP. IT DOES STILL SHOW A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE DEEP S LIFTING OUT AND REACHING THE
FCST AREA THU...SO THIS STILL LOOKS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY. STILL
TRIED TO STAY AWAY FROM WPC CAT POPS. BUT HAVE LIKELY MUCH OF THE
DAY.
THE ECMWF HOLDS THAT S/W TROUGH BACK UNTIL FRI NT/SAT. OTHERWISE THE
MODELS BASICALLY SHOW A CONTINUATION OF THE GENERAL PATTERN. THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH SLOWLY EASES OFF THE SE COAST...WHICH ALLOWS THE
BOTTOM OF THE WESTERLIES TO SAG A BIT FARTHER SWD...INTO THE FCST
AREA...NEXT WEEKEND.
LITTLE CHANGES NEED TO TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE MOSTLY A BLEND OF
PREVIOUS...WPC AND THE MEX.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. A DISTURBANCE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL
OHIO AND NORTHERN WV EARLY THIS MORNING. AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE MOST COVERAGE
OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO
AND NORTHERN WV.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF
CONVECTION...EXACT TIMING AND INTENSITY IS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS.
.AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF MORNING FOG WILL DEPENDS OF LOCATIONS THAT
GET RAIN.
&&
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...FB/RPY/26
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JSH/TRM
AVIATION...RPY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
601 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AREAWIDE...WITH A BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH. UPPER HIGH
EDGES IN FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT EDGES
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA TUESDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY. RUC
HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON A DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO AND NORTHERN WV THIS MORNING...SO WILL RELY ON THE RUC FOR
MORNING POPS. BY THIS AFTERNOON...EACH MODEL VARIES ON THE PLACEMENT
OF CONVECTION. SINCE DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST...WILL RUN THE HIGHEST POPS IN THIS REGION AND RUN LOWER
POPS IN THE SOUTH WHERE SOME DRIER AIR IS TRYING TO INTRUDE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN ACTIVE SHORT TERM ON
TAP WITH A BUILDING WATER ISSUE ACROSS SE OH AND N WV.
TUES LOOKS TO BE AN ACTIVE DAY AS A DAMPENING S/W TROF ATTEMPTS TO
BEAT BACK THE UPPER RIDGE ENOUGH TO ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SAG INTO
THE CWA. AS A RESULT WILL CONTINUE THE LIKELY POPS FROM PREVIOUS
FCST CENTERED OVER SE OH AND N HALF OF WV...PRIMED DURING MAX
HEATING HRS. SOME STRONG TO SVR STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS
SPC HAS PLACED AREAS N OF I64 IN SLIGHT RISK.
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL TRY TO MAKE IT DOWN TO US 50 CORRIDOR
BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY BY TUES NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS SE OH AND N WV LOWLANDS TUESDAY GIVEN
HIGH PWATS AND POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING ALONG THE SAGGING FRONT. SOME
OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BEGINS TO WANE TUES NIGHT SO THINK THE
OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL FOLLOW SUITE AND TEND TO
FOCUS JUST ON THE BOUNDARY.
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE HEADING INTO WED WITH HOW THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN PLAYS OUT. THE MORE AMPLIFIED NAM TAKES A STOUT S/W TROF OUT
OF THE S PLAINS WHICH ALLOWS THE RIDGE TO BUILD BACK N AND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO HEAD BACK N AS WELL AND WASH OUT. THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE MUCH MORE TAME WITH THIS DISTURBANCE AND HOLD DOWN THE
RIDGE...ALLOWING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO REMAIN DRAPED OVER N
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL TRY TO PLAY A MIDDLE ROAD SOLUTION WHICH
SEEMS TO BETTER REFLECT THE NEW EURO SOLUTION. THIS ALLOWS FOR MORE
STORMS OVER SE OH AND N WV WITH LOWER CHANCES S OF I64 CORRIDOR.
THINGS TRY TO QUIET SOME WED NIGHT BUT WITH THE FRONT STILL
AROUND...KEPT SOME HIGHER POPS IN OVER SE OH AND N WV.
THU APPEARS TO BE AN ACTIVE DAY WAS WELL AT LEAST FOR SE OH WITH THE
LINGERING BOUNDARY AND CONTINUED DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION ROUNDING
THE TOP OF THE A BEATEN DOWN RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO MET/SREF/PREVIOUS WITH THE MAV LOOKING A BIT
TOO LOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WE HAVE LOST THE GFS SOLUTION SHOWING A BREAK IN THE WEATHER FRI INTO
SAT. WHILE A LARGE NRN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL CROSSES ERN
CANADA THU INTO THU NT...IT DOES NOT DIG AS FAR S AS PREVIOUSLY
PROGGED...AND THE COLD FRONT AND CANADIAN HIGH DO NOT GET AS FAR S
EITHER...SO THE FCST AREA STAYS IN THE SOUP. IT DOES STILL SHOW A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE DEEP S LIFTING OUT AND REACHING THE
FCST AREA THU...SO THIS STILL LOOKS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY. STILL
TRIED TO STAY AWAY FROM WPC CAT POPS. BUT HAVE LIKELY MUCH OF THE
DAY.
THE ECMWF HOLDS THAT S/W TROUGH BACK UNTIL FRI NT/SAT. OTHERWISE THE
MODELS BASICALLY SHOW A CONTINUATION OF THE GENERAL PATTERN. THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH SLOWLY EASES OFF THE SE COAST...WHICH ALLOWS THE
BOTTOM OF THE WESTERLIES TO SAG A BIT FARTHER SWD...INTO THE FCST
AREA...NEXT WEEKEND.
LITTLE CHANGES NEED TO TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE MOSTLY A BLEND OF
PREVIOUS...WPC AND THE MEX.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. A DISTURBANCE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL
OHIO AND NORTHERN WV EARLY THIS MORNING. AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE MOST COVERAGE
OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO
AND NORTHERN WV.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF
CONVECTION...EXACT TIMING AND INTENSITY IS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS.
.AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF MORNING FOG WILL DEPENDS OF LOCATIONS THAT
GET RAIN.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...FB/RPY
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JSH/TRM
AVIATION...RPY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
340 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AREAWIDE...WITH A BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH. UPPER HIGH
EDGES IN FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT EDGES
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA TUESDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY. RUC
HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON A DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO AND NORTHERN WV THIS MORNING...SO WILL RELY ON THE RUC FOR
MORNING POPS. BY THIS AFTERNOON...EACH MODEL VARIES ON THE PLACEMENT
OF CONVECTION. SINCE DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST...WILL RUN THE HIGHEST POPS IN THIS REGION AND RUN LOWER
POPS IN THE SOUTH WHERE SOME DRIER AIR IS TRYING TO INTRUDE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AN ACTIVE SHORT TERM ON
TAP WITH A BUILDING WATER ISSUE ACROSS SE OH AND N WV.
TUES LOOKS TO BE AN ACTIVE DAY AS A DAMPENING S/W TROF ATTEMPTS TO
BEAT BACK THE UPPER RIDGE ENOUGH TO ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SAG INTO
THE CWA. AS A RESULT WILL CONTINUE THE LIKELY POPS FROM PREVIOUS
FCST CENTERED OVER SE OH AND N HALF OF WV...PRIMED DURING MAX
HEATING HRS. SOME STRONG TO SVR STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS
SPC HAS PLACED AREAS N OF I64 IN SLIGHT RISK.
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL TRY TO MAKE IT DOWN TO US 50 CORRIDOR
BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY BY TUES NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS SE OH AND N WV LOWLANDS TUESDAY GIVEN
HIGH PWATS AND POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING ALONG THE SAGGING FRONT. SOME
OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BEGINS TO WANE TUES NIGHT SO THINK THE
OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL FOLLOW SUITE AND TEND TO
FOCUS JUST ON THE BOUNDARY.
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE HEADING INTO WED WITH HOW THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN PLAYS OUT. THE MORE AMPLIFIED NAM TAKES A STOUT S/W TROF OUT
OF THE S PLAINS WHICH ALLOWS THE RIDGE TO BUILD BACK N AND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO HEAD BACK N AS WELL AND WASH OUT. THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE MUCH MORE TAME WITH THIS DISTURBANCE AND HOLD DOWN THE
RIDGE...ALLOWING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO REMAIN DRAPED OVER N
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL TRY TO PLAY A MIDDLE ROAD SOLUTION WHICH
SEEMS TO BETTER REFLECT THE NEW EURO SOLUTION. THIS ALLOWS FOR MORE
STORMS OVER SE OH AND N WV WITH LOWER CHANCES S OF I64 CORRIDOR.
THINGS TRY TO QUIET SOME WED NIGHT BUT WITH THE FRONT STILL
AROUND...KEPT SOME HIGHER POPS IN OVER SE OH AND N WV.
THU APPEARS TO BE AN ACTIVE DAY WAS WELL AT LEAST FOR SE OH WITH THE
LINGERING BOUNDARY AND CONTINUED DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION ROUNDING
THE TOP OF THE A BEATEN DOWN RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO MET/SREF/PREVIOUS WITH THE MAV LOOKING A BIT
TOO LOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WE HAVE LOST THE GFS SOLUTION SHOWING A BREAK IN THE WEATHER FRI INTO
SAT. WHILE A LARGE NRN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL CROSSES ERN
CANADA THU INTO THU NT...IT DOES NOT DIG AS FAR S AS PREVIOUSLY
PROGGED...AND THE COLD FRONT AND CANADIAN HIGH DO NOT GET AS FAR S
EITHER...SO THE FCST AREA STAYS IN THE SOUP. IT DOES STILL SHOW A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE DEEP S LIFTING OUT AND REACHING THE
FCST AREA THU...SO THIS STILL LOOKS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY. STILL
TRIED TO STAY AWAY FROM WPC CAT POPS. BUT HAVE LIKELY MUCH OF THE
DAY.
THE ECMWF HOLDS THAT S/W TROUGH BACK UNTIL FRI NT/SAT. OTHERWISE THE
MODELS BASICALLY SHOW A CONTINUATION OF THE GENERAL PATTERN. THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH SLOWLY EASES OFF THE SE COAST...WHICH ALLOWS THE
BOTTOM OF THE WESTERLIES TO SAG A BIT FARTHER SWD...INTO THE FCST
AREA...NEXT WEEKEND.
LITTLE CHANGES NEED TO TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE MOSTLY A BLEND OF
PREVIOUS...WPC AND THE MEX.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. A DISTURBANCE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV EARLY THIS MORNING. AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE MOST
COVERAGE OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF
CONVECTION...EXACT TIMING IS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS.
.AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF MORNING FOG WILL DEPENDS OF LOCATIONS THAT
GET RAIN.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...FB/RPY
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JSH/TRM
AVIATION...RPY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
340 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AREAWIDE...WITH A BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH. UPPER HIGH
EDGES IN FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT EDGES
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA TUESDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY. RUC
HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON A DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO AND NORTHERN WV THIS MORNING...SO WILL RELY ON THE RUC FOR
MORNING POPS. BY THIS AFTERNOON...EACH MODEL VARIES ON THE PLACEMENT
OF CONVECTION. SINCE DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST...WILL RUN THE HIGHEST POPS IN THIS REGION AND RUN LOWER
POPS IN THE SOUTH WHERE SOME DRIER AIR IS TRYING TO INTRUDE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AN ACTIVE SHORT TERM ON
TAP WITH A BUILDING WATER ISSUE ACROSS SE OH AND N WV.
TUES LOOKS TO BE AN ACTIVE DAY AS A DAMPENING S/W TROF ATTEMPTS TO
BEAT BACK THE UPPER RIDGE ENOUGH TO ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SAG INTO
THE CWA. AS A RESULT WILL CONTINUE THE LIKELY POPS FROM PREVIOUS
FCST CENTERED OVER SE OH AND N HALF OF WV...PRIMED DURING MAX
HEATING HRS. SOME STRONG TO SVR STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS
SPC HAS PLACED AREAS N OF I64 IN SLIGHT RISK.
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL TRY TO MAKE IT DOWN TO US 50 CORRIDOR
BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY BY TUES NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS SE OH AND N WV LOWLANDS TUESDAY GIVEN
HIGH PWATS AND POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING ALONG THE SAGGING FRONT. SOME
OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BEGINS TO WANE TUES NIGHT SO THINK THE
OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL FOLLOW SUITE AND TEND TO
FOCUS JUST ON THE BOUNDARY.
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE HEADING INTO WED WITH HOW THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN PLAYS OUT. THE MORE AMPLIFIED NAM TAKES A STOUT S/W TROF OUT
OF THE S PLAINS WHICH ALLOWS THE RIDGE TO BUILD BACK N AND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO HEAD BACK N AS WELL AND WASH OUT. THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE MUCH MORE TAME WITH THIS DISTURBANCE AND HOLD DOWN THE
RIDGE...ALLOWING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO REMAIN DRAPED OVER N
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL TRY TO PLAY A MIDDLE ROAD SOLUTION WHICH
SEEMS TO BETTER REFLECT THE NEW EURO SOLUTION. THIS ALLOWS FOR MORE
STORMS OVER SE OH AND N WV WITH LOWER CHANCES S OF I64 CORRIDOR.
THINGS TRY TO QUIET SOME WED NIGHT BUT WITH THE FRONT STILL
AROUND...KEPT SOME HIGHER POPS IN OVER SE OH AND N WV.
THU APPEARS TO BE AN ACTIVE DAY WAS WELL AT LEAST FOR SE OH WITH THE
LINGERING BOUNDARY AND CONTINUED DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION ROUNDING
THE TOP OF THE A BEATEN DOWN RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO MET/SREF/PREVIOUS WITH THE MAV LOOKING A BIT
TOO LOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WE HAVE LOST THE GFS SOLUTION SHOWING A BREAK IN THE WEATHER FRI INTO
SAT. WHILE A LARGE NRN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL CROSSES ERN
CANADA THU INTO THU NT...IT DOES NOT DIG AS FAR S AS PREVIOUSLY
PROGGED...AND THE COLD FRONT AND CANADIAN HIGH DO NOT GET AS FAR S
EITHER...SO THE FCST AREA STAYS IN THE SOUP. IT DOES STILL SHOW A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE DEEP S LIFTING OUT AND REACHING THE
FCST AREA THU...SO THIS STILL LOOKS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY. STILL
TRIED TO STAY AWAY FROM WPC CAT POPS. BUT HAVE LIKELY MUCH OF THE
DAY.
THE ECMWF HOLDS THAT S/W TROUGH BACK UNTIL FRI NT/SAT. OTHERWISE THE
MODELS BASICALLY SHOW A CONTINUATION OF THE GENERAL PATTERN. THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH SLOWLY EASES OFF THE SE COAST...WHICH ALLOWS THE
BOTTOM OF THE WESTERLIES TO SAG A BIT FARTHER SWD...INTO THE FCST
AREA...NEXT WEEKEND.
LITTLE CHANGES NEED TO TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE MOSTLY A BLEND OF
PREVIOUS...WPC AND THE MEX.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. A DISTURBANCE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV EARLY THIS MORNING. AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE MOST
COVERAGE OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF
CONVECTION...EXACT TIMING IS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS.
.AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF MORNING FOG WILL DEPENDS OF LOCATIONS THAT
GET RAIN.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...FB/RPY
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JSH/TRM
AVIATION...RPY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
130 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AREAWIDE...WITH A BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH. UPPER HIGH
EDGES IN FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT EDGES
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA TUESDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CURRENT FORECAST IS RIGHT ON TRACK. HIGH RES SHORT TERM MODELS ARE
STILL SHOWING A SHORTWAVE CROSSING TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT. THE CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST SHOULD BE GOOD. IT IS POSSIBLE NOTHING WILL
RESULT LIKE THE SHOWERS FROM THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO MAKE ANY CHANGES.
... 8 PM UPDATE... CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MINIMAL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND
ANY STORMS THAT DID DEVELOP HAD A HARD TIME REACHING THE FREEZING
LEVEL. RUC AND HRRR KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NORTH AS
ANOTHER IMPULSE IF FORECASTED. SO WON/T MAKE MANY IF ANY CHANGES TO
WHAT CURRENTLY HAVE. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH AND RE-EVALUATE. MAY
NEED TO LOWER OVERNIGHT POPS.
...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE WARM AND HUMID WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...AND UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. DEW POINTS
CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE
REGION...AND WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES TOPPING THE RIDGE AT
TIMES...CONTINUING TO SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES.
ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH AT 17Z...WILL
HELP TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHEAST
OHIO AND NORTHERN WV THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...TO BE FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTH.
ACROSS THE NORTH IS ALSO THE BEST LOCATION FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE
WEATHER...WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE...AS 30-40 KTS UNIDIRECTIONAL
SHEAR IN PLACE. OF COURSE...A SEVERE STORM DRIFTING SOUTHEAST INTO
OTHER PARTS OF THE CWA SUCH AS CENTRAL WV...CANNOT BE RULED
COMPLETELY OUT...AND ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DRIFTING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
INTO THE AREA WILL ONLY HELP TO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. IN ADDITION...VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE REALIZED WITH ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS. THIS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ISSUES IF REPETITIVE STORMS HIT THE SAME
LOCATION. GOOD NEWS IS THAT WITH THE FLOW...STORMS WILL AT LEAST
MOVE ALONG. SO...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES...BUT IN COMING
DAYS...AREA COULD BECOME PRIMED FOR ISSUES.
THE WARM AND HUMID PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH HOLDS FIRM OVER THE SERN STATES THIS PERIOD...WHILE
UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGHS TRAVERSE THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND NERN
STATES ALONG THE BOTTOM OF THE WESTERLIES ON THE N SIDE OF THE HIGH.
THIS PLACES THE FCST AREA IN A MOISTURE GRADIENT WITH PW VALUES
CLOSE TO TWO INCHES ACROSS THE N VS 1 TO 1.5 INCHES TO THE S...IN
THE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER HIGH.
THE UPPER HIGH BULGES A BIT NWD MON NT BETWEEN S/W/S. TOGETHER WITH
THE DIURNAL MIN...MOST OF THE NT LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET. ONE
S/W TROUGH CROSSES TUE...ARRIVING EARLY SO THIS DAY LOOKS TO BE
ACTIVE...WITH THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE N.
THE BOTTOM OF THE WESTERLIES FLATTENS OUT TUE NT IN THE WAKE OF THE
S/W SO THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS CARRIED
THROUGHOUT THE NT. THE HIGH DOES BULGE A BIT N ON WED IN THE
RELATIVE ABSENCE OF S/W/S...AND PW VALUES LOWER TO 1.5 OR LESS EVEN
ACROSS PARTS OF THE N. SO CARRIED A GENERIC CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
BASED MAINLY ON DIURNAL HEATING IN THE WARM AND STILL SOMEWHAT HUMID
AIR ON THE MOVE...ALONG WITH CONTINUITY AND COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORS.
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO MET/SREF/PREVIOUS WITH THE MAV LOOKING A BIT
TOO LOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WE HAVE LOST THE GFS SOLUTION SHOWING A BREAK IN THE WEATHER FRI INTO
SAT. WHILE A LARGE NRN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL CROSSES ERN
CANADA THU INTO THU NT...IT DOES NOT DIG AS FAR S AS PREVIOUSLY
PROGGED...AND THE COLD FRONT AND CANADIAN HIGH DO NOT GET AS FAR S
EITHER...SO THE FCST AREA STAYS IN THE SOUP. IT DOES STILL SHOW A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE DEEP S LIFTING OUT AND REACHING THE
FCST AREA THU...SO THIS STILL LOOKS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY. STILL
TRIED TO STAY AWAY FROM WPC CAT POPS. BUT HAVE LIKELY MUCH OF THE
DAY.
THE ECMWF HOLDS THAT S/W TROUGH BACK UNTIL FRI NT/SAT. OTHERWISE THE
MODELS BASICALLY SHOW A CONTINUATION OF THE GENERAL PATTERN. THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH SLOWLY EASES OFF THE SE COAST...WHICH ALLOWS THE
BOTTOM OF THE WESTERLIES TO SAG A BIT FARTHER SWD...INTO THE FCST
AREA...NEXT WEEKEND.
LITTLE CHANGES NEED TO TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE MOSTLY A BLEND OF
PREVIOUS...WPC AND THE MEX.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. A DISTURBANCE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV EARLY THIS MORNING. AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE MOST
COVERAGE OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF
CONVECTION...EXACT TIMING IS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS.
.AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF MORNING FOG WILL DEPENDS OF LOCATIONS THAT
GET RAIN.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...FB/SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...JSH/TRM
AVIATION...RPY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1156 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 6Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY AFFECT ALL SITES
AFTER ABOUT 9Z. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE AS
WELL. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE DURING
THE DAY MONDAY. STORMS WILL BE HIT AND MISS... BUT ANY SITE AFFECTED BY
A STORM CELL WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST THAT SOME ACTIVITY
MAY CONTINUE TO FESTER OVERNIGHT AS A DEEP TROPICAL AIRMASS
REMAINS IN PLACE BUT WILL LOWER POPS SOME AS COVERAGE SHOULD NOT
BE MORE THAN 30 PERCENT OR SO.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
BUT THE MAIN STORY THIS WEEK WILL BE THE TROPICAL SYSTEM LIFTING
NORTH NORTHWEST THROUGH THE GULF. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
TRACK NEAR OR OVER OUR FORECAST AREA AROUND MIDWEEK WITH A HIGH
LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY AND POTENTIALLY FLOODING RAINFALL NEAR ITS
TRACK.
UPDATE ON THE WAY.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...06
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
805 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN PARKED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THIS WEEK. PENNSYLVANIA WILL REMAIN IN THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER RIDGE WITH A SURFACE FRONT OSCILLATING
OVER THE STATE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR SUPPORT CATEGORICAL POPS DECREASING
TO LIKELIES EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE NORTH. EARLY MORNING STABILITY WILL GIVE WAY
TO DIURNALLY- DRIVEN CONVECTION BY AFTN ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AXIS OF HIGHEST GEFS PWAT ANOMALIES INDICATE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR RING OF FIRE CONVECTION.
HAVE KEPT POPS BTWN 60-65 PCT ACROSS THIS AREA WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER
POPS OVR THE N TIER. DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD YIELD AFTN CAPES OF
ARND 2000 J/KG BASED ON 00Z GEFS...WHICH COULD SUPPORT ISOLD SVR
WX. KINEMATIC PROFILE LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE WITH ONLY MODERATE MID
LVL WESTERLY FLOW OF ARND 30KTS AND 0-6KM SHEAR CLOSE TO 20KTS.
GIVEN PWATS CLOSE TO 2 INCHES...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL FROM ANY PM TSRA. CONVECTION-ALLOWING MDLS DO NOT
INDICATE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMTS TODAY...SO WILL MENTION SLIGHT
CHC OF FLASH FLOODING IN HWO FOR NOW.
OVERCAST SKIES SHOULD GIVE WAY TO BREAKS OF SUN LATER TODAY...HELPING
TO PUSH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
NEXT SHORTWAVE PASSING THRU THE GRT LKS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THRU CENTRAL PA ON TUESDAY...BRINGING OUR NEXT ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA.
MDL TIMING OF LL JET SUGGESTS THE BEST CHC OF RAIN WILL COME
TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHWEST PA AND TUES AM ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES.
GEFS 850MB MFLUX VALUES ANOMALIES ON THE ORDER OF 4-5SD ABV CLIMO
SLIDE SE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THRU MIDDAY TUES. GIVEN THE
DEEP MOISTURE AND LG SCALE FORCING PRESENT...SURPRISED AT THE
RELATIVELY LOW ENSEMBLE MEAN QPF VALUES OF ONLY ARND 0.25 INCHES
TONIGHT/TUESDAY. CURRENTLY CARRYING LIKELY POPS IN THE 60-70 PCT
RANGE...BUT THAT MAY BE TOO CONSERVATIVE. SPC CURRENTLY
HIGHLIGHTING THE ENTIRE AREA FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR WX TUESDAY
ASSOC WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH HEATING/DESTABILIZATION DUE TO CLOUD
COVER PRECIP. LATEST GEFS INDICATES VERY LIMITED CAPE TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALL MDL DATA INDICATING A PUSH OF DRIER AIR BEHIND COLD FRONT
SHOULD ENSURE A DRY TUES NIGHT AND WED AM. HOWEVER...UNSETTLED WX
APPEARS LIKELY TO RETURN LATE THIS WEEK AS QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA.
00Z GEFS AND OPER MED RANGE MDLS CONTINUE TO SHOW A PERSISTENT
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THRU LATE THIS WEEK.
CENTRAL PA SHOULD REMAIN BENEATH RING OF FIRE ON NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM WITH FREQUENT SHRA/TSRA LATE WED-SUN. A
FAIR AMT OF MDL CONSENSUS WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF SHORTWAVES...INDICATING
THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SHRA/TSRA WED NITE/EARLY THU AND AGAIN
ON SATURDAY.
AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN THIS
PATTERN...AS WELL AS ABOVE NORMAL MIN TEMPS BASED ON ABOVE NORMAL
PW.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFTER AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON/EVENING...CONDITIONS SETTLING DOWN A
BIT OVERNIGHT. MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN FOCUSED SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM KDUJ-KUNV-KLNS...WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS
THAT WILL BRING LOCALIZED RESTRICTIONS. CONDITIONS OVERALL WILL
SLIP BACK TO IFR IN THE NORTHERN MTNS...WITH MVFR BECOMING LIKELY
FOR THE CENTRAL MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS. BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSS IN
THE SE TOWARD SUNRISE.
SHOWERS CONTINUING TO DECLINE OVER SOUTHERN MTNS AT 12Z AS A LULL
IN ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. CIG
RESTRICTIONS IN ALL BUT THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...INITIALLY IN THE CENTRAL MTNS AND A BIT
LATER IN THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS/NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
CONVECTION REDEVELOPS BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED TSRA
NORTH TO NUMEROUS TSRA SOUTH...WITH ROVING RESTRICTIONS. ATMOSPHERE
WILL REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SVR WX WITH MID LVL
WESTERLY FLOW AROUND 30KTS. TORRENTIAL RAINS ALSO LIKELY IN ANY
TSTMS.
TONIGHT...DIURNALLY DRIVEN TSTMS WILL FADE BY 00-02Z. THEN AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE NW...MOST LIKELY AREA FOR
CONVECTION LATER TONIGHT SHIFTS BACK TO THE NW PORTION OF CWA
/AND MAY EXTEND INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS ON NOSE OF A LL
JET/...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSS PRETTY MUCH
ANYWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL PA IN MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS. CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS RETURN AS WELL WITH MANY AREAS SLIPPING BACK TO MVFR
OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...COLD FRONT. REDUCTIONS LIKELY IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG. OTHERWISE VFR SE...MVFR NW.
WED...PRIMARILY VFR.
THU-FRI...CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
800 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN PARKED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THIS WEEK. PENNSYLVANIA WILL REMAIN IN THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER RIDGE WITH A SURFACE FRONT OSCILLATING
OVER THE STATE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR SUPPORT CATEGORICAL POPS DECREASING
TO LIKELIES EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE NORTH. EARLY MORNING STABILITY WILL GIVE WAY
TO DIURNALLY- DRIVEN CONVECTION BY AFTN ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AXIS OF HIGHEST GEFS PWAT ANOMALIES INDICATE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR RING OF FIRE CONVECTION.
HAVE KEPT POPS BTWN 60-65 PCT ACROSS THIS AREA WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER
POPS OVR THE N TIER. DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD YIELD AFTN CAPES OF
ARND 2000 J/KG BASED ON 00Z GEFS...WHICH COULD SUPPORT ISOLD SVR
WX. KINEMATIC PROFILE LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE WITH ONLY MODERATE MID
LVL WESTERLY FLOW OF ARND 30KTS AND 0-6KM SHEAR CLOSE TO 20KTS.
GIVEN PWATS CLOSE TO 2 INCHES...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL FROM ANY PM TSRA. CONVECTION-ALLOWING MDLS DO NOT
INDICATE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMTS TODAY...SO WILL MENTION SLIGHT
CHC OF FLASH FLOODING IN HWO FOR NOW.
OVERCAST SKIES SHOULD GIVE WAY TO BREAKS OF SUN LATER TODAY...HELPING
TO PUSH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
NEXT SHORTWAVE PASSING THRU THE GRT LKS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THRU CENTRAL PA ON TUESDAY...BRINGING OUR NEXT ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA.
MDL TIMING OF LL JET SUGGESTS THE BEST CHC OF RAIN WILL COME
TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHWEST PA AND TUES AM ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES.
GEFS 850MB MFLUX VALUES ANOMALIES ON THE ORDER OF 4-5SD ABV CLIMO
SLIDE SE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THRU MIDDAY TUES. GIVEN THE
DEEP MOISTURE AND LG SCALE FORCING PRESENT...SURPRISED AT THE
RELATIVELY LOW ENSEMBLE MEAN QPF VALUES OF ONLY ARND 0.25 INCHES
TONIGHT/TUESDAY. CURRENTLY CARRYING LIKELY POPS IN THE 60-70 PCT
RANGE...BUT THAT MAY BE TOO CONSERVATIVE. SPC CURRENTLY
HIGHLIGHTING THE ENTIRE AREA FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR WX TUESDAY
ASSOC WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH HEATING/DESTABILIZATION DUE TO CLOUD
COVER PRECIP. LATEST GEFS INDICATES VERY LIMITED CAPE TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALL MDL DATA INDICATING A PUSH OF DRIER AIR BEHIND COLD FRONT
SHOULD ENSURE A DRY TUES NIGHT AND WED AM. HOWEVER...UNSETTLED WX
APPEARS LIKELY TO RETURN LATE THIS WEEK AS QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA.
00Z GEFS AND OPER MED RANGE MDLS CONTINUE TO SHOW A PERSISTENT
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THRU LATE THIS WEEK.
CENTRAL PA SHOULD REMAIN BENEATH RING OF FIRE ON NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM WITH FREQUENT SHRA/TSRA LATE WED-SUN. A
FAIR AMT OF MDL CONSENSUS WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF SHORTWAVES...INDICATING
THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SHRA/TSRA WED NITE/EARLY THU AND AGAIN
ON SATURDAY.
AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN THIS
PATTERN...AS WELL AS ABOVE NORMAL MIN TEMPS BASED ON ABOVE NORMAL
PW.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFTER AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON/EVENING...CONDITIONS SETTLING DOWN A
BIT OVERNIGHT. MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN FOCUSED SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM KDUJ-KUNV-KLNS...WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS
THAT WILL BRING LOCALIZED RESTRICTIONS. CONDITIONS OVERALL WILL
SLIP BACK TO IFR IN THE NORTHERN MTNS...WITH MVFR BECOMING LIKELY
FOR THE CENTRAL MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS. BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSS IN
THE SE TOWARD SUNRISE.
EXPECT RESTRICTIONS TO END BY MID MORNING MONDAY. LOOKS LIKE THERE
WILL BE A BREAK IN THE CONVECTION THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...BUT
SCATTERED TSRA NORTH TO NUMEROUS TSRA SOUTH FIRE UP AGAIN FOR
MID/LATE AFTERNOON...WITH ROVING RESTRICTIONS. ATMOSPHERE WILL
REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SVR WX WITH MID LVL WESTERLY FLOW
AROUND 30KTS.
AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE NW...MOST LIKELY AREA
FOR CONVECTION MON NIGHT SHIFTS BACK TO THE NW PORTION OF CWA /AND
MAY EXTEND INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS ON NOSE OF A LL JET/...BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSS PRETTY MUCH ANYWHERE
ACROSS CENTRAL PA IN MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...COLD FRONT. REDUCTIONS LIKELY IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG. OTHERWISE VFR SE...MVFR NW.
WED...PRIMARILY VFR.
THU-FRI...CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
633 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN PARKED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THIS WEEK. PENNSYLVANIA WILL REMAIN IN THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER RIDGE WITH A SURFACE FRONT OSCILLATING
OVER THE STATE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY AM WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS SHORTWAVE TRACKING NORTH OF PA
INTO NEW ENG. ASSOC LL JET AND PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS IS
SETTLING ACROSS SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...ACCOMPANIED BY NUMEROUS
SHRA AND A FEW LINGERING TSRA. RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR
SUPPORT CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS
MORNING AND SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE NORTH. 09Z SPC MESOANALYSIS
INDICATES ATMOS HAS STABILIZED...ENDING THE THREAT OF INTENSE CONVECTION
AND EXCESSIVE RAIN RATES. HAVE THEREFORE CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH.
LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS SHOWERS WILL DWINDLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES LATE THIS MORNING...DUE WANING LG SCALE FORCING IN WAKE
OF DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...CENTRAL PA WILL REMAIN UNDER
THE GUN FOR DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION BY AFTN ON NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AXIS OF HIGHEST GEFS PWAT
ANOMALIES INDICATE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR RING
OF FIRE CONVECTION. HAVE KEPT POPS BTWN 60-65 PCT ACROSS THIS AREA
WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS OVR THE N TIER. DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD
YIELD AFTN CAPES OF ARND 2000 J/KG BASED ON 00Z GEFS...WHICH COULD
SUPPORT ISOLD SVR WX. KINEMATIC PROFILE LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE WITH
ONLY MODERATE MID LVL WESTERLY FLOW OF ARND 30KTS AND 0-6KM SHEAR
CLOSE TO 20KTS.
GIVEN PWATS CLOSE TO 2 INCHES...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL FROM ANY PM TSRA. CONVECTION-ALLOWING MDLS DO NOT
INDICATE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMTS TODAY...SO WILL MENTION SLIGHT
CHC OF FLASH FLOODING IN HWO FOR NOW.
OVERCAST SKIES SHOULD GIVE WAY TO BREAKS OF SUN LATER TODAY...HELPING
TO PUSH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
NEXT SHORTWAVE PASSING THRU THE GRT LKS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THRU CENTRAL PA ON TUESDAY...BRINGING OUR NEXT ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA.
MDL TIMING OF LL JET SUGGESTS THE BEST CHC OF RAIN WILL COME
TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHWEST PA AND TUES AM ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES.
GEFS 850MB MFLUX VALUES ANOMALIES ON THE ORDER OF 4-5SD ABV CLIMO
SLIDE SE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THRU MIDDAY TUES. GIVEN THE
DEEP MOISTURE AND LG SCALE FORCING PRESENT...SURPRISED AT THE
RELATIVELY LOW ENSEMBLE MEAN QPF VALUES OF ONLY ARND 0.25 INCHES
TONIGHT/TUESDAY. CURRENTLY CARRYING LIKELY POPS IN THE 60-70 PCT
RANGE...BUT THAT MAY BE TOO CONSERVATIVE. SPC CURRENTLY
HIGHLIGHTING THE ENTIRE AREA FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR WX TUESDAY
ASSOC WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH HEATING/DESTABILIZATION DUE TO CLOUD
COVER PRECIP. LATEST GEFS INDICATES VERY LIMITED CAPE TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALL MDL DATA INDICATING A PUSH OF DRIER AIR BEHIND COLD FRONT
SHOULD ENSURE A DRY TUES NIGHT AND WED AM. HOWEVER...UNSETTLED WX
APPEARS LIKELY TO RETURN LATE THIS WEEK AS QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA.
00Z GEFS AND OPER MED RANGE MDLS CONTINUE TO SHOW A PERSISTENT
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THRU LATE THIS WEEK.
CENTRAL PA SHOULD REMAIN BENEATH RING OF FIRE ON NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM WITH FREQUENT SHRA/TSRA LATE WED-SUN. A
FAIR AMT OF MDL CONSENSUS WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF SHORTWAVES...INDICATING
THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SHRA/TSRA WED NITE/EARLY THU AND AGAIN
ON SATURDAY.
AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN THIS
PATTERN...AS WELL AS ABOVE NORMAL MIN TEMPS BASED ON ABOVE NORMAL
PW.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFTER AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON/EVENING...CONDITIONS SETTLING DOWN A
BIT OVERNIGHT. MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN FOCUSED SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM KDUJ-KUNV-KLNS...WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS
THAT WILL BRING LOCALIZED RESTRICTIONS. CONDITIONS OVERALL WILL
SLIP BACK TO IFR IN THE NORTHERN MTNS...WITH MVFR BECOMING LIKELY
FOR THE CENTRAL MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS. BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSS IN
THE SE TOWARD SUNRISE.
EXPECT RESTRICTIONS TO END BY MID MORNING MONDAY. LOOKS LIKE THERE
WILL BE A BREAK IN THE CONVECTION THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...BUT
SCATTERED TSRA NORTH TO NUMEROUS TSRA SOUTH FIRE UP AGAIN FOR
MID/LATE AFTERNOON...WITH ROVING RESTRICTIONS. ATMOSPHERE WILL
REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SVR WX WITH MID LVL WESTERLY FLOW
AROUND 30KTS.
AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE NW...MOST LIKELY AREA
FOR CONVECTION MON NIGHT SHIFTS BACK TO THE NW PORTION OF CWA /AND
MAY EXTEND INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS ON NOSE OF A LL JET/...BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSS PRETTY MUCH ANYWHERE
ACROSS CENTRAL PA IN MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...COLD FRONT. REDUCTIONS LIKELY IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG. OTHERWISE VFR SE...MVFR NW.
WED...PRIMARILY VFR.
THU-FRI...CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
358 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN PARKED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THIS WEEK. PENNSYLVANIA WILL REMAIN IN THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER RIDGE WITH A SURFACE FRONT OSCILLATING
OVER THE STATE...PRODUCING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE FOR WED...BUT ADDITIONAL SHOWERY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN BY THU. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PREVAIL AGAIN
FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WATER VAPOR LOOP AT 06Z SHOWS SHORTWAVE TRACKING NORTH OF LK
ONTARIO. ASSOC LL JET AND PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS IS SLIDING
SOUTH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS MORNING...ACCOMPANIED BY
NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA. RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR SUPPORT
CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING
AND CHC ACROSS THE NORTH. FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS UP THRU 10Z
ACROSS THE N MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS. HOWEVER...THE REAL THREAT
REMAINS FROM CAMBRIA CO SOUTHWARD...WHERE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
REMAINS TO SUPPORT CONVECTION AND EXCESSIVE RAIN RATES. RAP WARM
CLOUD DEPTH REMAINS NR 4KM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...INDICATIVE
OF A TROPICAL AIR MASS AND HIGH RAIN RATE POTENTIAL.
THE ENTIRE REGION REMAINS SOUTH OF QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EARLY
THIS AM WITH HIGH HUMIDITY...WHICH WILL HOLD TEMPS FROM FALLING
ANY LOWER THAN ARND 70F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
CENTRAL PA WILL REMAIN ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
MONDAY. AXIS OF HIGHEST GEFS PWAT ANOMALIES INDICATE SOUTHERN PA
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR RING OF FIRE CONVECTION. HAVE KEPT POPS
BTWN 60-65 PCT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WHERE PM TSRA ARE
LIKELY. AIR MASS WILL BE WARM AND UNSTABLE AGAIN...BUT MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR SVR WX WITH MID LVL WESTERLY FLOW OF ARND 30KTS.
MODERATE CAPES WILL BE CREATED BY AFTN BRINGING SLIGHT RISK OF SVR
STORMS FROM SPC. BREAKS OF SUN SHOULD HELP PUSH TEMPS WELL INTO
THE 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DID NOT CHANGE A LOT.
MAIN THING WAS TO EDGE TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES HERE AND THERE.
TENDENCY FOR EC TO SHOW LESS HEIGHT FALLS EACH DAY.
SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AGAIN LATE MONNDAY...AS FRONT TILTS
BACK TO THE NW FROM LOW DROPPING SE ACROSS NE PA LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUE.
SOME MORE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE STORMS ON TUE...AS
FRONT MOVES SE. HARD TO FOLLOW GFS POPS FOR MDT LATE TUE. FRONT
MOVING INTO THAT AREA JUST AFTER PEAK HEATING. THUS WENT HIGHER
ON POPS THAN GUIDANCE ACROSS THE SE.
STILL ENOUGH PUSH TO GET SOME DRY WEATHER INTO THE AREA LATER TUE
NIGHT INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF WED.
NAM SHOWS A CRAZY DAY ON THU...WITH WARM ADVECTION...SHEAR
AND CAPE. THUS WENT RATHER HIGH WITH POPS. AGAIN...AS NOTED
ABOVE...DID UP TEMPS SOME.
SOME BREAK POSSIBLE LATER FRIDAY INTO SUN...AS MODELS HINT
THAT FRONT COULD DROPS SOUTH OF PA. EC NOT SHOWING A LOT OF
HEIGHT FALLS...SO HAVE LOW CHC POPS IN FOR SOME OF THE TIME.
REALLY NOT SEEING MUCH CHANGE IN THE PATTERN ANYTIME SOON.
VERY FAST WEST TO EAST FLOW WILL KEEP ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS
A LARGE CHUCK OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH DAY 10.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFTER AN ACTIVE AFTENOON/EVENING...CONDITIONS SETTLING DOWN A BIT
OVERNIGHT. MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN FOCUSED SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM KDUJ-KUNV-KLNS...WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS THAT
WILL BRING LOCALIZED RESTRICTIONS. CONDITIONS OVERALL WILL SLIP
BACK TO IFR IN THE NORTHERN MTNS...WITH MVFR BECOMING LIKELY FOR
THE CENTRAL MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS. BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSS IN THE
SE TOWARD SUNRISE.
EXPECT RESTRICTIONS TO END BY MID MORNING MONDAY. LOOKS LIKE THERE
WILL BE A BREAK IN THE CONVECTION THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...BUT
SCATTERED TSRA NORTH TO NUMEROUS TSRA SOUTH FIRE UP AGAIN FOR
MID/LATE AFTERNOON...WITH ROVING RESTRICTIONS. ATMOSPHERE WILL
REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SVR WX WITH MID LVL WESTERLY FLOW
AROUND 30KTS.
AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE NW...MOST LIKELY AREA
FOR CONVECTION MON NIGHT SHIFTS BACK TO THE NW PORTION OF CWA /AND
MAY EXTEND INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS ON NOSE OF A LL JET/...BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSS PRETTY MUCH ANYWHERE
ACROSS CENTRAL PA IN MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...COLD FRONT. REDUCTIONS LIKELY IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG. OTHERWISE VFR SE...MVFR NW.
WED...PRIMARILY VFR.
THU-FRI...CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033-037-041-042-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WATSON/DEVOIR/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
233 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN PARKED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THIS WEEK. PENNSYLVANIA WILL REMAIN IN THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER RIDGE WITH A SURFACE FRONT OSCILLATING
OVER THE STATE...PRODUCING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE FOR WED...BUT ADDITIONAL SHOWERY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN BY THU. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PREVAIL AGAIN
FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WATER VAPOR LOOP AT 06Z SHOWS SHORTWAVE TRACKING NORTH OF LK
ONTARIO. ASSOC LL JET AND PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS IS SLIDING
SOUTH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS MORNING...ACCOMPANIED BY
NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA. RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR SUPPORT
CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING
AND CHC ACROSS THE NORTH. FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS UP THRU 10Z
ACROSS THE N MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS. HOWEVER...THE REAL THREAT
REMAINS FROM CAMBRIA CO SOUTHWARD...WHERE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
REMAINS TO SUPPORT CONVECTION AND EXCESSIVE RAIN RATES. RAP WARM
CLOUD DEPTH REMAINS NR 4KM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...INDICATIVE
OF A TROPICAL AIR MASS AND HIGH RAIN RATE POTENTIAL.
THE ENTIRE REGION REMAINS SOUTH OF QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EARLY
THIS AM WITH HIGH HUMIDITY...WHICH WILL HOLD TEMPS FROM FALLING
ANY LOWER THAN ARND 70F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
CENTRAL PA WILL REMAIN ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
MONDAY. AXIS OF HIGHEST GEFS PWAT ANOMALIES INDICATE SOUTHERN PA
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR RING OF FIRE CONVECTION. HAVE KEPT POPS BTWN 60-65
PCT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WHERE PM TSRA ARE LIKELY. AIR
MASS WILL BE WARM AND UNSTABLE AGAIN...BUT MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
FOR SVR WX WITH MID LVL WESTERLY FLOW OF ARND 30KTS. MODERATE
CAPES WILL BE CREATED BY AFTN BRINGING SLIGHT RISK OF SVR STORMS
FROM SPC. BREAKS OF SUN SHOULD HELP PUSH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DID NOT CHANGE A LOT.
MAIN THING WAS TO EDGE TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES HERE AND THERE.
TENDENCY FOR EC TO SHOW LESS HEIGHT FALLS EACH DAY.
SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AGAIN LATE MONNDAY...AS FRONT TILTS
BACK TO THE NW FROM LOW DROPPING SE ACROSS NE PA LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUE.
SOME MORE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE STORMS ON TUE...AS
FRONT MOVES SE. HARD TO FOLLOW GFS POPS FOR MDT LATE TUE. FRONT
MOVING INTO THAT AREA JUST AFTER PEAK HEATING. THUS WENT HIGHER
ON POPS THAN GUIDANCE ACROSS THE SE.
STILL ENOUGH PUSH TO GET SOME DRY WEATHER INTO THE AREA LATER TUE
NIGHT INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF WED.
NAM SHOWS A CRAZY DAY ON THU...WITH WARM ADVECTION...SHEAR
AND CAPE. THUS WENT RATHER HIGH WITH POPS. AGAIN...AS NOTED
ABOVE...DID UP TEMPS SOME.
SOME BREAK POSSIBLE LATER FRIDAY INTO SUN...AS MODELS HINT
THAT FRONT COULD DROPS SOUTH OF PA. EC NOT SHOWING A LOT OF
HEIGHT FALLS...SO HAVE LOW CHC POPS IN FOR SOME OF THE TIME.
REALLY NOT SEEING MUCH CHANGE IN THE PATTERN ANYTIME SOON.
VERY FAST WEST TO EAST FLOW WILL KEEP ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS
A LARGE CHUCK OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH DAY 10.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SE PA
AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL PA.
OTHERWISE...JUST SOME SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH LOW CIGS
AND FOG.
EXPECT FOG AND LOW CIGS TO BURN OFF BY MID MORNING ON
MONDAY.
WENT WITH A DRY FCST FOR MONDAY AFT. EXPECT WINDS TO BE
NW...AND ACTION SHOULD BE MAINLY EAST OF OUR AREA. MAIN
CONCERN FOR STORMS ON MONDAY WOULD BE NE OF IPT...NEAR
LOW FCST TO DROP SE FROM NY STATE.
NEXT ROUND OF WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WILL BE LIKELY ON
TUE...AS COLD FRONT MOVES SE.
BEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON WED.
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED ON THU...AS FRONT MOVES
BACK AS A WARM FRONT.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED FOR BULK OF THE DAY.
THU-FRI...CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033-037-041-042-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WATSON/DEVOIR/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
106 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
NOT EXACTLY A CLEARCUT NEAR TERM FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
WHAT APPEARS TO BE A COUPLE DIFFERENT FORCING MECHANISMS AT WORK TO
BRING SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE AREA. MAIN PLAYER THROUGH THE DAY WILL
BE A SLOW MOVING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...LOCATED OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS IS CLEARLY SEEN
IN BROAD-SCALE PRECIP MOTION ON REGIONAL RADAR LOOP...WITH CELLS IN
CENTRAL NEBRASKA DROPPING SOUTH...WHILE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY FROM
EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO IOWA LIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST. LATEST MODELS SHOW
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THIS TROUGH KEEPING PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS OUR
FAR SOUTHEAST THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING...POSSIBLY LONGER THOUGH
GENERAL CONSENSUS DOES SHIFT PRECIP SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA BY 18Z.
SECONDARY PLAYER APPEARS TO BE SUBTLE ELEVATED WAVE/BOUNDARY AROUND
850-800MB...WHICH HAS SPARKED INCREASING DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR CWA OVER THE PAST HOUR. THIS
ACTIVITY ALIGNS FAIRLY WELL WITH AREA OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY
JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK WIND SHIFT SEEN IN BOTH THE RAP AND 06Z NAM.
BOTH MODELS ALSO SHOWING DECENT CONSENSUS IN WEAKENING THIS FEATURE
AS IT SHIFTS INTO NORTHWEST IOWA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...THOUGH
THE RAP IS A BIT FASTER TO LOSE THE FORCING THAN THE NAM. IN EITHER
CASE...EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE A SLOW SHIFT EAST...AND WILL
CONFINE POPS TO AREAS EAST OF KYKN-KFSD-KMML BY 12Z...WITH PRECIP
CHANCES TAILING OFF FAIRLY RAPIDLY 12Z-15Z IN AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY
60 AS THE ELEVATED BOUNDARY WASHES OUT.
WITH THE INCREASED PRECIP CHANCE/GREATER CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY...HAVE SLOWED THE RISE IN TEMPERATURES...THOUGH
STILL ANTICIPATE SOME SUNSHINE AND POTENTIAL FOR WARMING INTO THE
MID-UPPER 70S BY LATE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT WILL BRING CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY AS SURFACE RIDGE
MOVES INTO THE AREA. EXPECT MOST AREAS WILL SEE DECENT BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING THIS AFTERNOON TO SUFFICIENTLY LOWER DEW POINTS AND
MINIMIZE FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THIS IN FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS THOUGH...WHERE MIXING WILL BE MORE LIMITED DUE TO THE
LINGERING CLOUDS. WITH THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN...EXPECT MOST AREAS
TO SEE LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING ONE IN A SERIES OF WAVES
MODELS DEPICT IN A DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW FOR THE WEEK. APPROACH OF
THIS WAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FAIRLY SLOW INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AND A THERMAL PATTERN THAT WILL FAVOR THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR PRECIPITATION
THREAT. THIS WILL BE REFLECTED IN POPS WHICH WILL MAXIMIZE TUESDAY
NIGHT..WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY SPREADING OVER THE AREA AT THAT
TIME. WITH A BIT OF A MISMATCH OF PARAMETERS...THE BEST
INSTABILITY MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTH WHILE THERMAL SUPPORT AND WINDS
ARE MORE FAVORABLE WEST AND NORTH...SPC DAY 2 SEVERE RISK...MOSTLY
MARGINAL IN OUR AREA...IS ACCEPTED FOR NOW. ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND
DOWN WEDNESDAY THOUGH NOT AS FAST AS THE NAM SUGGESTS GIVEN THAT
IT SEEMS A LONER ON THE STRENGTH AND SPEED OF ITS DRY SURGE BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH
A MODEST 75 TO 80 RANGE.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD SEE A LITTLE WARMING WITH ANOTHER THREAT
OF STORMS AS ANOTHER HARD TO TIME WAVE REACHES THE AREA. THE WEEKEND
SHOULD BE BACK TO A LITTLE MORE MODEST WARMTH AND ANOTHER THREAT OF
CONVECTION. THE WAVE SHOWN BY MODELS IS STRONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS
WEAK SYSTEMS ESPECIALLY ON THE NEW EC...HOWEVER TIMING WILL AGAIN BE
DIFFICULT THAT FAR AHEAD. THE GFS AND EC ARE DIFFERENT ON STRENGTH
OF THIS SYSTEM BUT CLOSE ON TIMING...AND IF THEY ARE RIGHT A DRY
COUPLE OF DAYS SHOULD FOLLOW THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME MVFR CEILINGS IN FAR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA THROUGH ABOUT 21Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER AFTER 15Z TOMORROW.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
654 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
NOT EXACTLY A CLEARCUT NEAR TERM FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
WHAT APPEARS TO BE A COUPLE DIFFERENT FORCING MECHANISMS AT WORK TO
BRING SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE AREA. MAIN PLAYER THROUGH THE DAY WILL
BE A SLOW MOVING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...LOCATED OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS IS CLEARLY SEEN
IN BROAD-SCALE PRECIP MOTION ON REGIONAL RADAR LOOP...WITH CELLS IN
CENTRAL NEBRASKA DROPPING SOUTH...WHILE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY FROM
EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO IOWA LIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST. LATEST MODELS SHOW
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THIS TROUGH KEEPING PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS OUR
FAR SOUTHEAST THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING...POSSIBLY LONGER THOUGH
GENERAL CONSENSUS DOES SHIFT PRECIP SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA BY 18Z.
SECONDARY PLAYER APPEARS TO BE SUBTLE ELEVATED WAVE/BOUNDARY AROUND
850-800MB...WHICH HAS SPARKED INCREASING DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR CWA OVER THE PAST HOUR. THIS
ACTIVITY ALIGNS FAIRLY WELL WITH AREA OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY
JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK WIND SHIFT SEEN IN BOTH THE RAP AND 06Z NAM.
BOTH MODELS ALSO SHOWING DECENT CONSENSUS IN WEAKENING THIS FEATURE
AS IT SHIFTS INTO NORTHWEST IOWA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...THOUGH
THE RAP IS A BIT FASTER TO LOSE THE FORCING THAN THE NAM. IN EITHER
CASE...EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE A SLOW SHIFT EAST...AND WILL
CONFINE POPS TO AREAS EAST OF KYKN-KFSD-KMML BY 12Z...WITH PRECIP
CHANCES TAILING OFF FAIRLY RAPIDLY 12Z-15Z IN AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY
60 AS THE ELEVATED BOUNDARY WASHES OUT.
WITH THE INCREASED PRECIP CHANCE/GREATER CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY...HAVE SLOWED THE RISE IN TEMPERATURES...THOUGH
STILL ANTICIPATE SOME SUNSHINE AND POTENTIAL FOR WARMING INTO THE
MID-UPPER 70S BY LATE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT WILL BRING CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY AS SURFACE RIDGE
MOVES INTO THE AREA. EXPECT MOST AREAS WILL SEE DECENT BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING THIS AFTERNOON TO SUFFICIENTLY LOWER DEW POINTS AND
MINIMIZE FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THIS IN FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS THOUGH...WHERE MIXING WILL BE MORE LIMITED DUE TO THE
LINGERING CLOUDS. WITH THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN...EXPECT MOST AREAS
TO SEE LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING ONE IN A SERIES OF WAVES
MODELS DEPICT IN A DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW FOR THE WEEK. APPROACH OF
THIS WAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FAIRLY SLOW INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AND A THERMAL PATTERN THAT WILL FAVOR THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR PRECIPITATION
THREAT. THIS WILL BE REFLECTED IN POPS WHICH WILL MAXIMIZE TUESDAY
NIGHT..WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY SPREADING OVER THE AREA AT THAT
TIME. WITH A BIT OF A MISMATCH OF PARAMETERS...THE BEST
INSTABILITY MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTH WHILE THERMAL SUPPORT AND WINDS
ARE MORE FAVORABLE WEST AND NORTH...SPC DAY 2 SEVERE RISK...MOSTLY
MARGINAL IN OUR AREA...IS ACCEPTED FOR NOW. ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND
DOWN WEDNESDAY THOUGH NOT AS FAST AS THE NAM SUGGESTS GIVEN THAT
IT SEEMS A LONER ON THE STRENGTH AND SPEED OF ITS DRY SURGE BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH
A MODEST 75 TO 80 RANGE.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD SEE A LITTLE WARMING WITH ANOTHER THREAT
OF STORMS AS ANOTHER HARD TO TIME WAVE REACHES THE AREA. THE WEEKEND
SHOULD BE BACK TO A LITTLE MORE MODEST WARMTH AND ANOTHER THREAT OF
CONVECTION. THE WAVE SHOWN BY MODELS IS STRONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS
WEAK SYSTEMS ESPECIALLY ON THE NEW EC...HOWEVER TIMING WILL AGAIN BE
DIFFICULT THAT FAR AHEAD. THE GFS AND EC ARE DIFFERENT ON STRENGTH
OF THIS SYSTEM BUT CLOSE ON TIMING...AND IF THEY ARE RIGHT A DRY
COUPLE OF DAYS SHOULD FOLLOW THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN/DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS
THE MORNING PROGRESSES. GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF THUNDER
THREAT AT KSUX...OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS TIME...BUT
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE AMENDMENT OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. KSUX IS ONLY TAF LOCATION WHICH SHOULD BE AFFECTED BY
PRECIPITATION...OR ACCOMPANYING MVFR CEILINGS...WHICH SHOULD LAST
UNTIL 17Z-18Z. NORTHWEST OF THE RAIN BAND...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
405 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
NOT EXACTLY A CLEARCUT NEAR TERM FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
WHAT APPEARS TO BE A COUPLE DIFFERENT FORCING MECHANISMS AT WORK TO
BRING SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE AREA. MAIN PLAYER THROUGH THE DAY WILL
BE A SLOW MOVING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...LOCATED OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS IS CLEARLY SEEN
IN BROAD-SCALE PRECIP MOTION ON REGIONAL RADAR LOOP...WITH CELLS IN
CENTRAL NEBRASKA DROPPING SOUTH...WHILE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY FROM
EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO IOWA LIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST. LATEST MODELS SHOW
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THIS TROUGH KEEPING PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS OUR
FAR SOUTHEAST THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING...POSSIBLY LONGER THOUGH
GENERAL CONSENSUS DOES SHIFT PRECIP SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA BY 18Z.
SECONDARY PLAYER APPEARS TO BE SUBTLE ELEVATED WAVE/BOUNDARY AROUND
850-800MB...WHICH HAS SPARKED INCREASING DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR CWA OVER THE PAST HOUR. THIS
ACTIVITY ALIGNS FAIRLY WELL WITH AREA OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY
JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK WIND SHIFT SEEN IN BOTH THE RAP AND 06Z NAM.
BOTH MODELS ALSO SHOWING DECENT CONSENSUS IN WEAKENING THIS FEATURE
AS IT SHIFTS INTO NORTHWEST IOWA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...THOUGH
THE RAP IS A BIT FASTER TO LOSE THE FORCING THAN THE NAM. IN EITHER
CASE...EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE A SLOW SHIFT EAST...AND WILL
CONFINE POPS TO AREAS EAST OF KYKN-KFSD-KMML BY 12Z...WITH PRECIP
CHANCES TAILING OFF FAIRLY RAPIDLY 12Z-15Z IN AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY
60 AS THE ELEVATED BOUNDARY WASHES OUT.
WITH THE INCREASED PRECIP CHANCE/GREATER CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY...HAVE SLOWED THE RISE IN TEMPERATURES...THOUGH
STILL ANTICIPATE SOME SUNSHINE AND POTENTIAL FOR WARMING INTO THE
MID-UPPER 70S BY LATE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT WILL BRING CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY AS SURFACE RIDGE
MOVES INTO THE AREA. EXPECT MOST AREAS WILL SEE DECENT BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING THIS AFTERNOON TO SUFFICIENTLY LOWER DEW POINTS AND
MINIMIZE FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THIS IN FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS THOUGH...WHERE MIXING WILL BE MORE LIMITED DUE TO THE
LINGERING CLOUDS. WITH THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN...EXPECT MOST AREAS
TO SEE LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING ONE IN A SERIES OF WAVES
MODELS DEPICT IN A DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW FOR THE WEEK. APPROACH OF
THIS WAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FAIRLY SLOW INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AND A THERMAL PATTERN THAT WILL FAVOR THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR PRECIPITATION
THREAT. THIS WILL BE REFLECTED IN POPS WHICH WILL MAXIMIZE TUESDAY
NIGHT..WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY SPREADING OVER THE AREA AT THAT
TIME. WITH A BIT OF A MISMATCH OF PARAMETERS...THE BEST
INSTABILITY MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTH WHILE THERMAL SUPPORT AND WINDS
ARE MORE FAVORABLE WEST AND NORTH...SPC DAY 2 SEVERE RISK...MOSTLY
MARGINAL IN OUR AREA...IS ACCEPTED FOR NOW. ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND
DOWN WEDNESDAY THOUGH NOT AS FAST AS THE NAM SUGGESTS GIVEN THAT
IT SEEMS A LONER ON THE STRENGTH AND SPEED OF ITS DRY SURGE BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH
A MODEST 75 TO 80 RANGE.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD SEE A LITTLE WARMING WITH ANOTHER THREAT
OF STORMS AS ANOTHER HARD TO TIME WAVE REACHES THE AREA. THE WEEKEND
SHOULD BE BACK TO A LITTLE MORE MODEST WARMTH AND ANOTHER THREAT OF
CONVECTION. THE WAVE SHOWN BY MODELS IS STRONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS
WEAK SYSTEMS ESPECIALLY ON THE NEW EC...HOWEVER TIMING WILL AGAIN BE
DIFFICULT THAT FAR AHEAD. THE GFS AND EC ARE DIFFERENT ON STRENGTH
OF THIS SYSTEM BUT CLOSE ON TIMING...AND IF THEY ARE RIGHT A DRY
COUPLE OF DAYS SHOULD FOLLOW THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
VFR SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT CATEGORY ACROSS KHON...KFSD AND KSUX
THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS AT
KSUX WHERE INDICATIONS ARE FROM THE LATEST NAM THAT THERE COULD BE
SOME BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS MID MORNING MONDAY. ONE THING TO KEEP AN
EYE ON IS THUNDERSTORMS. VERY CONFIDENT THAT KHON IS IN THE
CLEAR...AND FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT ACTIVITY WILL NOT OCCUR AROUND
KFSD. BUT FURTHER SOUTHEAST IN NORTHWEST IA...THE COLD FRONT HAS
NOT PASSED THROUGH YET. THEREFORE AM CONCERNED THAT SOME ISOLATED
TSRA COULD BE CLOSE TO KSUX FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION TRYING TO OOZE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE 500MB FLOW BETWEEN KSUX AND KOMA. SO BETWEEN
THOSE TWO FACTORS...KSUX IS WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z MONDAY. DUE TO THE SKITTISH NATURE OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS...DID NOT INCLUDE A MENTION OF THE TSRA FOR THE
FORTH COMING 06Z KSUX TAF YET.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
334 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. INTO THE MIDSOUTH. CONDITIONS ARE WARM AND HUMID WITH
SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. TEMPS ARE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S WITH A LIGHT SOUTH WIND.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH TODAY. THIS SERVES TO PUSH THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY A LITTLE FURTHER WEST...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS AFTN INTO THE EVENING. A STRONG STORM OR
TWO IS POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS. MORNING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD NOT BE
A PROBLEM SO EXPECT MORE SUNSHINE AREAWIDE TODAY AND TEMPS WILL
CLIMB A LITTLE HIGHER THAN SUNDAY. EXPECT MOST OF THE CONVECTION
TO DISSIPATE BY LATE EVENING. THE GFS DEVELOPS AN MCS OVER
SOUTHERN MO AS AN UPPER TROF TRIES TO PUSH EAST INTO THE UPPER
RIDGE AND SHEARS APART...AND TRIES TO SAG IT INTO NORTHERN PARTS
OF THE MIDSOUTH OVERNIGHT. OTHER MODELS DO NOT CORROBORATE THIS SO
CONFIDENCE IN THAT SCENARIO IS LOW.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE 00Z NAM TRIES TO BRING THE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY LOCATED NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO
NEAR TULSA OK BY 12Z WEDNESDAY BUT THAT SEEMS MUCH TOO FAST. THE
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE IT OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS AT THAT TIME. WILL GO
WITH A UPPER RIDGE DOMINATED FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD WITH THE
BETTER CHANCES FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND LESSER CHANCES TOWARD
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. HIGHS WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH READINGS IN
THE LOWER 90S...PERHAPS SOME MID 90S ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI. HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE GFS AND THE ECMWF MOVE THE DISTURBANCE
OUT OF THE GULF AND ACROSS TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BY
12Z THURSDAY THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED SOMEWHERE ALONG THE RED RIVER
VALLEY...TRACKING ACROSS OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
THIS IS A LONG WAY FROM THE MIDSOUTH AND THE UPPER RIDGE IS STILL
QUITE STRONG ACROSS THE AREA. BUMPED TEMPS UP TO AROUND 90 AND
TRIMMED POPS FOR THURSDAY. BETTER PRECIP CHANCES WILL PROBABLY
HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE
WESTERLIES AND TRACKS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH THE
TROF EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE MID SOUTH. BEST CHANCES WILL
PROBABLY BE ACROSS THE NORTH ON FRIDAY BUT THIS IS COMPLETELY
DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WHICH COULD VARY FROM THE
CURRENT SOLUTIONS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SYSTEM MOVES EAST AND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
RE-ESTABLISHES OVER THE REGION. EXPECT DECREASING PRECIP CHANCES
AND TEMPS BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S.
MONDAY...A COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH PERHAPS SOME
COOLER TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SJM
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS
SCATTERED SHRA BETWEEN MEM AND JBR WILL LIFT NORTH...LEAVING THE
TAF SITES FREE OF RAINFALL OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF THE RESIDUAL
MIDLEVEL CLOUDS NEAR THE MEM TRACON... ONLY SCATTERED HIGH CIRRUS
PREVAILED AT THE OTHER TAF SITES AT 0430Z.
00Z NAM...GFS LAMP AND HRRR INDICATE LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER... GIVEN WEAK/CALM WINDS AND
HIGH DEWPOINTS... SUSPECT THERE IS A REASONABLE POTENTIAL FOR
RADIATIVE FOG / LOW STRATUS FORMATION AT MKL AND TUP.
WITH THE ENCROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE EAST... MONDAY WILL
SEE REDUCED RAIN CHANCES AT ALL BUT JBR. VFR AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL THE MONDAY EVENING MEM CARGO ARRIVAL
PUSH.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1140 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 950 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015/
UPDATE...
AMAZINGLY SIMILAR EVOLUTION OF EVENTS THE PAST FEW DAYS. ANOTHER
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVED NORTH THROUGH THE EVENING WHICH HAS
COOLED TEMPERATURES. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND
WANE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD CLEAR AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS EAST AR.
TVT
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015/
DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES
INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND
A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SOUTHERLY WINDS
ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE UP INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. REGIONAL WSR-88D
RADAR TRENDS INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE MID SOUTH WITH MOST OF THE COVERAGE OCCURRING ALONG AND WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING THEN DIMINISH IN COVERAGE WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
MID SOUTH WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS. BEST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
BE LOCATED ALONG WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH PERHAPS
LESS COVERAGE EAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
SLIGHTLY RETROGRADE WEST. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
SHORT/LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE TEXAS
GULF COAST SOMEWHERE BETWEEN HOUSTON AND CORPUS CHRISTI
TEXAS...MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF TEXAS BY
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AND THEN SHIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MIDDLE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS BY FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE WRF
CONTINUES TO HANDLE THE TROPICAL REMNANTS THE QUICKEST...FOLLOWED
BY THE GFS. THE ECMWF IS CURRENTLY THE SLOWER OF THE SOLUTIONS BUT
HAVE BLENDED FORECAST SOLUTIONS WITH A PREFERENCE TOWARDS THE
ECMWF WHICH TYPICALLY PERFORMS WELL DURING THE SUMMER. HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL MAY BECOME A CONCERN LATE IN THE WEEK DEPENDING
ON THE TRACK OF THE TROPICAL REMNANTS BUT WILL LET LATER SHIFTS
ASSESS THE POTENTIAL THREAT IN SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS BEFORE ADDING
MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK IF NOT SLIGHTLY COOLER
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S.
CJC
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS
SCATTERED SHRA BETWEEN MEM AND JBR WILL LIFT NORTH...LEAVING THE
TAF SITES FREE OF RAINFALL OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF THE RESIDUAL
MIDLEVEL CLOUDS NEAR THE MEM TRACON... ONLY SCATTERED HIGH CIRRUS
PREVAILED AT THE OTHER TAF SITES AT 0430Z.
00Z NAM...GFS LAMP AND HRRR INDICATE LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER... GIVEN WEAK/CALM WINDS AND
HIGH DEWPOINTS... SUSPECT THERE IS A REASONABLE POTENTIAL FOR
RADIATIVE FOG / LOW STRATUS FORMATION AT MKL AND TUP.
WITH THE ENCROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE EAST... MONDAY WILL
SEE REDUCED RAIN CHANCES AT ALL BUT JBR. VFR AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL THE MONDAY EVENING MEM CARGO ARRIVAL
PUSH.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
104 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
.AVIATION... /06Z TAF UPDATE/
A LINE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH SHOULD
APPROACH DRT IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. THIS LINE SHOULD WEAKEN
SOME...BUT WILL STILL EXPECT SOME THUNDER IN THE VCNTY. MOST OF
THE HIGH RES MODEL RUNS SHOW WEAKENING OF THE COMPLEX BY 09Z...
BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH CLOSELY ON THE PWAT RICH ENVIRONMENT.
OTHERWISE THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS SHOULD SEE BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR
SKIES WITH SOME LIGHT BRIEF SHOWERS CAUSING MINIMAL IMPACTS TO
VSBYS. THE NEXT CHALLENGE IS TO ANTICIPATE CHANGING SKIES AS THE
APPROACH OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM BEGINS TO SHIFT WIND DIRECTION AFTER
DAYBREAK. WILL ASSUME GOOD MIXING EARLY TODAY AND SHOW SOME VFR
SKIES FROM MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE NORTHERLY WIND
DIRECTIONS COULD PROLONG VFR SKIES WELL INTO THE EVENING...BUT
WITH HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF TX...WILL SHOW A FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE LOWERING OF CIGS ALONG I-35 FOR MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 934 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015/
UPDATE...
A LINE OF STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE BIG BEND
IS PUSHING TO THE EAST THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO COME ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO
GRANDE PLAINS AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE HRRR/RAP13/TEXAS
TECH/NCAR ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS AGREE ON DISSIPATING THE LINE OF
STORMS AS IT PUSHES TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. CANT
RULE OUT SMALL HAIL WITH STRONGER STORMS. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS COULD RANGE FROM ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH WITH VERY
ISOLATED SPOTS UP TO ONE INCH. ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS MAY
BE IN THE FEW HUNDREDTHS TO ONE QUARTER INCH RANGE. BASED ON THIS
FORECAST PERIOD AND THE LIMITED RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED FOR THE
EASTERN PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT...WE HAVE OPTED TO
CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EARLY ISSUED.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN MID MORNING ON MONDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING AND TUESDAY AS A TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE PUSHES TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A GOOD POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OR STORM WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. STAY TUNED FOR
UPDATES ON THIS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE
TEXAS COAST. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE
EASTERN PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND EVEN ON
WEDNESDAY. A NEW FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS LIKELY TO BE ISSUED ON
MONDAY FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 703 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015/
AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA SITES THROUGH MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. CIGS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER OVERNIGHT TO MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR WITH FEW HOURS OF LIFR MONDAY
MORNING FROM DAWN TO 14Z MONDAY. LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IS
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO MID MORNING ON MONDAY WITH HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED FOR THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS
A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM LATE TONIGHT FOR
STORMS TO MOVE FROM THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS INTO VAL VERDE. ADDED A
TEMPO GROUP TO COVER THIS FROM 05Z TO 07Z MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 6 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHER
GUSTS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...AS DISCUSSED IN THE
MORNING UPDATE...RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CENTRAL CWA...NEAR
SAN ANTONIO IN AN ENHANCED AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE AND DE-STABILIZATION. RICH INFLUX OF HIGH PWAT IS
RESULTING IN HIGH RAINFALL RATES...ALONG WITH SOME TRAINING OF
STORMS NOW ACROSS BEXAR COUNTY. THE PAST SEVERAL HRRR RUNS HAVE
BEEN HANDLING THE TRENDS GENERALLY WELL...WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA...ALONG AND EAST OF A BURNET TO SAN
ANTONIO LINE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. WILL ALLOW THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING HOURS TO BE SAFE.
FARTHER WEST...A FEW MODELS ARE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS COMING OUT OF WEST TEXAS AND NORTHERN
MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
HAVE MENTIONED AGAIN SOME HIGHER POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
FAR WESTERN CWA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE MENTIONED AGAIN EAST OF I-35. LOCALIZED
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE MONDAY.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
ALL EYES ON THE GULF OF MEXICO AND POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM...
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT AND FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
FORECAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM.
A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFF THE YUCATAN AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. AS OF SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WAS GIVING THE SYSTEM A 70
PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...AND A RECON
FLIGHT WAS ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT OF STEERING THE SYSTEM NORTHWEST THROUGH THE GULF
OF MEXICO...AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S...TOWARDS TEXAS BY TUESDAY. GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY
CLUSTERED AROUND A LANDFALL ALONG THE MID TO UPPER TEXAS COAST.
THERE HAS BEEN SOME WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
AND MEAN WITH THE TRACK. ADDITIONALLY...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
IN THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM...WITH THE ECMWF NOW SLOWER WITH THE
SYSTEM THROUGH THE EASTERN CWA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. ADDITIONAL
CHANGES IN THE TRACK/SPEED ARE LIKELY FROM MODELS OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS UNTIL THE SYSTEM CLOSES OFF.
FOLLOWING A CONSENSUS APPROACH...WPC/NHC COORDINATION...AND
ALLOWING FOR SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR ANY WESTWARD SHIFT...WE ARE
SHOWING LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
BEGINNING AS EARLY AS TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...AND
INTO THE CENTRAL CWA...I-35 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN HILL COUNTRY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY WE ARE
FORECASTING 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6+ INCHES ALONG
AND EAST OF A GEORGETOWN TO KARNES CITY LINE. GIVEN THE HEAVY
RAINFALL THAT HAS FALLEN THE LAST MONTH...AND ESPECIALLY THE LAST
24 HOURS ACROSS THESE AREAS...ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN HIGH IMPACT FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING.
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE CWA FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
IT SHOULD CONTINUED TO BE STRESSED...ADDITIONAL SHIFTS IN THE
TRACK AND ORGANIZATION COULD LIKELY RESULT IN LARGE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST WETTER OR DRIER. PLEASE STAY CLOSELY TUNED TO THE
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE DOES LINGER OVER THE CWA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY ALONG WITH A WEAKNESS ALOFT. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS. POSSIBLE DRYING
TAKES PLACE NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 73 85 73 86 74 / 40 70 70 70 40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 73 84 73 87 73 / 40 80 70 80 40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 74 87 73 88 73 / 40 70 70 70 40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 72 83 71 86 72 / 30 70 60 60 40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 75 91 75 92 76 / 20 30 30 30 30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 72 83 72 85 72 / 40 70 70 70 40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 73 88 73 89 74 / 20 50 50 50 40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 73 85 73 87 73 / 40 70 70 80 40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 74 84 74 85 74 / 60 80 80 80 40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 75 87 75 88 74 / 30 60 60 70 40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 75 88 74 89 74 / 30 60 60 70 40
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...OAKS
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1234 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
.DISCUSSION...PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.
&&
.AVIATION...SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WL SLOWLY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTN
HOURS AS DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE AFFECTS PORTIONS OF SOUTH TX
TDA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WL OCCUR ACROSS THE VCT AREA. MVFR
CEILINGS WL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FOR MOST LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY
THROUGH 15Z. AS THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE MIDDLE TX
COAST THROUGH THE FCST PD...THE WIND DIRECTION WL GRADUALLY BACK
TO A MORE EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE
STRONGEST WIND GUSTS WL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THIS TAF
PD. CONVECTION WL TEND TO WANE AROUND SUNSET ESPECIALLY ACROSS ALI
AND LRD. HOWEVER CONVECTION WL LKLY BEGIN TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PD ACROSS CRP AND VCT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 815 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015/
DISCUSSION...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVHD AND THE 00Z
CRP SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR ISOLD/SCT
CONVECTION THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG INCREASING
PWAT/MOISTURE THROUGH MON AS THE DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF CONTINUES
TO MOVE NORTHWEST. THE CHC POPS FCSTD ACROSS THE E CWA AND
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT THEN INCREASING MON...LOOKS REASONABLE.
LONG PERIOD SWELLS ARE ALSO FCST TO INCREASE THROUGH MON/TUE...AND
THUS THE HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AS WELL. THE
RIP CURRENT PRODUCT IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 10 PM CDT...BUT WILL WAIT
FOR LATEST FROM NHC BEFORE EXTENDING IT THROUGH MON. OTHER THAN
POSSIBLY THE RIP CURRENT PRODUCT...NO OTHER CHANGES TO FCST AT
THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015/
DISCUSSION...SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...SOME OF THIS FORECAST WILL DEPEND ON NHC FORECAST OF
DISTURBANCE. AS OF THIS WRITING...STILL A DISTURBANCE (80 PERCENT
CHANCE OF AT LEAST DEPRESSION). MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS EAST OF
SURFACE CIRCULATION...SO WITH THAT IN MIND IF SYSTEM MOVES AS
MODEL CONSENSUS HINTS...WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME CONVECTION OVERNIGHT
AND IN THE MORNING...THEN WANING IN THE AFTERNOON (THE TAFS FOR
00Z TUESDAY WILL BE QUITE DIFFERENT...MORE SHOWERS AND GUSTS...IF
TRACK IS CLOSER TO GFS 18Z...WITH THE OPPOSITE THE CASE IF ECMWF
CANADIAN AND SOME OF THE HURRICANE MODELS ARE HINTING). WILL
MAINTAIN AS IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...AT
LEAST FOR A TIME BEING...WITH VCSH OVERNIGHT FOR EASTERN
TERMINALS. THEN...TEMPO SHRA/TSRA FOR MONDAY MAINLY AFTER
14Z (AGAIN EASTERN TERMINALS)...AND VFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.
WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK...HAVE DECIDED TO JUST GO WITH VCTS FOR
THE AFTERNOON TERMINALS...EXCEPT HAVE A PROB30 AT KVCT AS MOST
LIKELY AREA TO RECEIVE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...FOR
BREVITY...WILL ONLY GO WITH VICINITY AND NOT WITH TEMPO OR PROB30
AT THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...MOIST AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS HAS RESULTED IN SCATTERED CONVECTION TODAY ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS. COVERAGE HAS DIMINISHED SOME OVER THE LAST HOUR...AND
LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR SUGGESTS A LULL IN CONVECTION MAY OCCUR
LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. AS WITH THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS THOUGH...EXPECT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
GULF WATERS INTO THE COASTAL COUNTIES ON MONDAY MORNING. UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS ON MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST WHILE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ATTEMPTS TO SHIFT WWD.
THIS WILL KEEP WEAKNESS ALOFT OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE FARTHER ON MONDAY AS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO
MOVE TO THE NW/NNW ACROSS THE GULF. MODELS PROG PW VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES BY 18Z MONDAY LEADING TO A THREAT OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND HAVE RETAINED A MENTION OF MDT/HVY RAIN IN
THE FORECAST.
ATTENTION WILL THEN OF COURSE TURN TO THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
MOVING NW/NNW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. PREVIOUS GUIDANCE
MAINTAINED A TIGHT CLUSTER WITH REGARDS TO EVENTUAL TRACK...BUT
NOW GUIDANCE CONTAINS A LARGER SPREAD ON THE TRACK. REGARDLESS...
THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST FOR A TROPICAL SYSTEM TO BE APPROACHING
THE MIDDLE/UPPER TEXAS COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...AND NHC HAS GIVEN THIS SYSTEM A 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLASH WATCH FOR NOW BUT
ONE WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA AS THINGS
BECOME A LITTLE MORE CLEAR REGARDING THIS SYSTEM.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON POTENTIAL ORGANIZATION OF THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MAJORITY OF THE
TROPICAL MODELS SHOW THE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING NORTHWEST AND
REACHING THE TEXAS COAST SOMEWHERE BETWEEN ROCKPORT AND GALVESTON
BY TUESDAY MORNING. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO COASTAL PLAINS TUESDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EVEN THOUGH LOW PRESSURE AREA SHOULD BE
NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY...WEAK TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTH
TEXAS TO FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY. WILL SHOW
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
RAINFALL TOTALS 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD
OCCUR OVER CALHOUN AND VICTORIA COUNTIES. MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH ELEVATED SEAS. THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS COULD BE HIGH
UNTIL THURSDAY. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS COULD BE OVER THE REGION
FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. ADEQUATE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION FOR THURSDAY...SO WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FOR THE AREA.
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO SOUTH TEXAS BY FRIDAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST. WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AT
THIS TIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 88 76 89 78 89 / 60 60 60 70 60
VICTORIA 87 74 85 76 87 / 70 60 80 80 80
LAREDO 94 76 96 78 95 / 20 20 30 40 40
ALICE 91 76 90 77 91 / 50 40 60 60 60
ROCKPORT 86 78 87 80 86 / 60 60 80 80 70
COTULLA 92 75 92 76 93 / 20 20 40 40 50
KINGSVILLE 91 76 89 78 90 / 50 50 60 60 60
NAVY CORPUS 86 78 86 80 87 / 60 60 70 70 60
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
MB/80...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1120 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2015
.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
Line of showers and thunderstorms extended from Ft. Stockton to
Big Spring to just west of Snyder at 4Z (11 PM CDT) will move east
around 22 KTS. Latest HRRR models indicates the line to break up
as it moves into east in the Western Big Country and Concho Valley,
however, it is just encountering an eastward moving old thunderstorm
boundary, which may enhance storm development enough to allow the
storms to reach San Angelo and Abilene. Have VCTS beginning at 6Z
at KSJT and 7Z at KABI and KSOA. Gusty west winds of 30 KTS may
precede the line of storms. Otherwise, areas of MVFR stratus to
develop over the terminals tonight, becoming VFR 15-16Z. Isolated
to scattered thunderstorms expected Monday and Monday night. Will
put a VCTS at KABI where the best potential for storms exists.
Gusty winds to 35 KTS and brief lowered visibilities to IFR
possible near storms Monday.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 701 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2015/
AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will affect the KBBD and KJCT
terminals through 1Z, with the main effect being variable gusty
winds. A line of showers and thunderstorms, moving in from the
west, may affect the KABI KSJT KSOA terminals after 6Z tonight.
MVFR stratus returns otherwise returns late night along the I-10
corridor affecting KSOA, KJCT and KBBD. KSJT may see scattered low
clouds towards 12Z. MVFR ceilings otherwise rise to VFR mid/late
morning.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015/
SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)
Convection remains suppressed across most of West TX today as an
area of large scale subsidence has overspread the region from the
west. A subtle shortwave trough is noted south of the CWA, but it`s
most significant impact will be to our south and east. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will continue across the eastern fringe of
the CWA from Mason to Brownwood, with the remainder of the area
likely dry into the evening hours.
Tonight, the next wave of upper-level support will move across the
High Plains. Thunderstorms over eastern NM and west TX are expected
to develop, growing upscale into an MCS. Similar to what we saw last
night, the greatest chance for thunderstorms will be across the Big
Country. A second, smaller complex will be possible, originating
from the southwest Texas convection. These storms may only affect
the southwest portion of the CWA from Ozona to Sonora. Locally heavy
rainfall will be the primary threat, although there could be some
localized strong wind gusts.
A moist, uncapped environment will remain in place on Monday.
However, convection is not expected to be suppressed as much as
today so we anticipate a fuller diurnal cu field and more scattered
convection developing by midday. Where this convection initiates
will be driven by the location of outflow boundaries from overnight
convection. For now...rain chances across the area range from
20-40%. As has been the case, organized severe weather is not
anticipated, but we could see a few strong, pulse storms that
produce locally heavy rainfall.
LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Sunday)
Model guidance has improved today with the overall mid and
upper-level patterns for the first half of the week. They show a
ridge building over the Desert Southwest and the Southeastern states
in the Monday through Wednesday time frame, with an upper trough
(which has been discussed for the past few day) getting sandwiched
in between the ridges. At the same time, a tropical disturbance
currently located northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula, is forecast to
move towards Corpus Christi. The National Hurricane Center gives
this system a 70 percent chance of developing into at least a
tropical storm, and it is forecast to track towards the middle Texas
coast, before turning north and tracking generally along the
Interstate 35 corridor. While this is typically to far east to bring
any threat of widespread heavy rainfall to our region, the one thing
it may do for us is give an influx of tropical moisture into the
aforementioned trough.
Another change noted today has been for a temporary increase in the
strength of the upper trough crossing the state. With slightly
better dynamics in place, precipitation may be somewhat more
widespread Tuesday and Wednesday, and this trend has been noted in
today`s numerical solutions. With this in mind, PoPs were increased
across most of the region. As the tropical disturbance and trough
interact, the previously mentioned ridges get damped out, with
today`s model runs showing an uncapped airmass remaining in place
through Friday. As a result, POPs were extended for this time across
the eastern half of the forecast area.
Heading into the weekend, a ridge will again develop across the
Desert Southwest, with its eastern extent residing over West Central
Texas, effectively ending our rainfall chances as drier air invades
the region.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 69 88 70 86 70 / 40 40 40 50 30
San Angelo 71 90 69 88 70 / 30 20 30 40 30
Junction 72 90 71 89 70 / 20 20 20 50 40
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
227 PM PDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND ONSHORE FLOW AT LOW LEVELS
CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK...BRINGING MORNING CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON
SUN. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRES ALOFT WILL DEVELOP DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK...FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS
ON FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE ERN PACIFIC NEAR 52N/138.5W
MOVES VERY LITTLE THRU THURSDAY...KEEPING WLY-SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE AREA. OCCASIONAL WEAK/DRY SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN WLY FLOW WILL
MOVE THRU THE AREA /STARTING AT 00Z THIS EVENING/...WITH MINIMAL
CHANGE TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. AT MID LEVELS WLY/SWLY FLOW
INCREASES SLIGHTLY...FOR A LITTLE DEEPER MARINE INTRUSION REACHING
FARTHER INLAND. MODELS INDICATE TUESDAY MAY SEE MORNING CLOUDS IN
BOTH THE SRN WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND COLUMBIA RIVER LOWLANDS...WITH A
FEW LESS CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY. INLAND AREAS WILL STILL CLEAR BY LATE
MORNING...KEEPING MAX TEMPERATURES 2-4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MOST OF
THE WEEK. BRIGHT
&&
.LONG TERM...WLY TO SWLY FLOW CONTINUES THRU THURSDAY FOR A TYPICAL
SUMMER PATTERN OF MORNING CLOUDS/LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
CLEARING. BY FRIDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER ERN PACIFIC WEST OF
QUEEN CHARLOTTES BEGINS TO OPEN AND MOVE SEWD. GFS/ECMWF DIFFER IN
DETAILS OF THIS EVOLUTION...PARTICULARLY IN THE STRENGTH OF UPSTREAM
RIDGING AND RESULTING TROUGH PASSAGE OVER PACNW FRIDAY. GFS SHOWS
LESS AMPLITUDE KEEPING ANY SHOWERS NORTH OF THE AREA...WHILE ECMWF
HIGHER AMPLITUDE WITH MORE CLOUDS FRIDAY AND LOW-END POPS OVER FAR
NWRN OR/SWRN WA. WILL LEAN TOWARD ECMWF AND KEEP LOW GRADE POPS IN
THE GRIDS FRIDAY. THE WEEKEND APPEARS DRY AT THIS TIME...WITH
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING UNDER WEAK UPPER RIDGING. BRIGHT
&&
.AVIATION...WEAK WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN THE NE PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A MARINE LAYER
NEAR THE COAST. THE FLOW ALOFT INCREASES THROUGH THE MID WEEK
PERIOD SO WE SHOULD SEE MORE INLAND INTRUSION OF MARINE CLOUDS THE
NEXT FEW MORNINGS. THE MODELS SUGGEST THE GREATEST COVERAGE COULD
BE TUESDAY MORNING WITH AN INTRUSION BOTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL GAP SOUTHWEST OF KEUG AND INLAND ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER.
THE IFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST ARE CLEARING TO NEAR THE BEACHES NEAR
KAST BUT WILL SPREAD BACK ONSHORE BY EARLY EVENING...AND WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN OVER THE INLAND PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL STRIP
NEAR KONP. IFR CIGS WILL THEN CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING AND LIKELY WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW CLOUDS
NEAR THE COAST WILL SPREAD INLAND THROUGH THE COASTAL GAPS
TONIGHT...POSSIBLY REACHING KKLS BY 06Z OR 08Z...AND INTO THE
INLAND VALLEYS NEAR KPDX AND KEUG BY 12Z. CONDITIONS INLAND SHOULD
BECOME VFR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TODAY. LOW MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
11Z-13Z TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE UNTIL 20Z OR 21Z. PT
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC THURSDAY. THERMAL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN INLAND OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL NOT QUITE REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE INNER WATERS...BUT
WILL OVER THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS ALL AREAS EASE A BIT LATER
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...BUT LOOK LIKE THEY WILL PICK BACK UP
IN THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENING TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS TILLAMOOK...BEFORE
WEAKENING LATER IN THE WEEK AS A SYSTEM SWINGS THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
SEAS REMAIN SQUARE AND CHOPPY WITH HEIGHTS AROUND 7 FEET AND
PERIODS AROUND 7 SECONDS IN THE OUTER WATERS BUT ARE STARTING TO
DROP IN THE INNER WATERS. SEAS CONTINUE TO DECREASE LATER TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. PT
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM
10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10
TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD
OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR
FROM 10 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 3 AM
TO 7 AM PDT TUESDAY.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1115 AM PDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and dry weather will continue across the Inland Northwest.
Friday and Saturday will be the days to watch for potentially
hazardous weather including organized thunder as well and very
gusty winds combining with low humidity. Otherwise...expect
temperatures to gradually warm through mid-week with mainly
mountain showers and isolated thunder.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Very little changes made to today`s forecast. Main concerns will
be isolated showers and thunderstorms in the far northern Cascades
and a small chance along an axis stretching from southeastern
Shoshone County toward Northeastern Oregon. The Cascades will
carry a slightly higher probability with 11AM RAP data already
showing 300-500 J/kg of sb CAPE and small cumulus towers starting
to sprout. Any storms look to remain north and west of the 2014
burn scars but this will be monitored very closely.
Northeast winds are currently at their peak and will continue to
slowly come down through the afternoon hours but should generally
remain from the N/NE until this evening. The strongest winds are
channeling through the Okanogan Valley and Purcell Trench between
Sandpoint and C`dA.
Temperatures are currently running 3-5 degrees above yesterday and
but with the low level air mass only warming 1-2C from yesterday
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A drier westerly flow aloft will continue to bring VFR
conditions to all terminals with passing high clouds at times. The
only sensible weather will be isolated showers and thunderstorms
in the far northern Cascades and along an axis stretching from
Northeastern Oregon to Missoula. Any activity looks to remain
south of Lewiston. At the surface...northeast winds channeling
down the Purcell Trench and Okanogan Valley will peak between
18-20z and gradual decrease by 00z. /sb
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 82 56 85 57 82 54 / 0 0 10 10 10 0
Coeur d`Alene 80 53 84 53 81 52 / 0 0 10 10 10 10
Pullman 80 49 83 50 80 49 / 10 10 10 10 10 10
Lewiston 88 58 91 59 88 57 / 0 10 10 10 10 10
Colville 83 51 89 52 85 50 / 0 0 10 10 20 20
Sandpoint 78 48 83 49 81 48 / 0 0 10 10 20 20
Kellogg 80 49 82 51 80 49 / 10 10 10 10 20 20
Moses Lake 89 55 91 58 87 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 88 64 90 63 86 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 86 55 91 55 86 52 / 0 0 10 10 20 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1029 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN
GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT HAS
SETTLEDOVER THE OHIO VALLEY. DIURNAL CU POPPED LATE THIS MORNING
OVER CENTRAL AND NE WI...WHILE NORTH-CENTRAL WI HAS ENJOYED MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS. LOOKING UPSTREAM...CLOUDS AND RAIN ARE SPREADING
EAST OVER THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BLACK HILLS. AS THESE CLOUDS
AND RAIN SPREAD EAST...PRECIP TRENDS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN.
TONIGHT...RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE UPPER JET COMBINED WITH MID-LEVEL
THETAE ADVECTION WILL PUSH CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN AND MOST OF
CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE EVENING. SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE POINTS
TOWARDS THE PRECIP DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES INTO DRIER AND STABLE
AIR CLOSER TO THE SURFACE HIGH. SOME OF THIS RAIN WILL TRY TO
MAKE A RUN INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE...AND WILL LEAVE A
SMALL CHANCE IN THE FORECAST. UNDER INCREASING CLOUDS...LOWS IN
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S.
WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AS AN
INVERTED TROUGH TIGHTENS OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. GUIDANCE PEGS
THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN AND ALSO SNEAKING UP INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN AND THE WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA. AS A RESULT...HAVE
BACKED OFF PRECIP CHANCES EXCEPT FOR VILAS COUNTY WHERE MAINTAINED
LIKELY WORDING. THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN US WILL BRING SEVERAL SYSTEMS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPS LOOK TO
REMAIN WITHIN 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE/BELOW NORMAL.
THE FIRST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FROM WEDNESDAY
EVENING INTO THURSDAY...AS A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. TIME OF DAY COMBINED WITH OVERALL
INSTABILITY STAYING LOW (UNDER 500 J/KG) SHOULD KEEP THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT DOWN...BUT DECENT 0-6KM SHEAR OF 35-50 KTS ALONG
WITH A SMALL RIBBON OF INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT COULD PRODUCE
AT LEAST SOME BRIEF ORGANIZED STORM ACTIVITY. SPC CONTINUES TO
HIGHLIGHT CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WITH A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. CHANCE POPS LOOK GOOD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES
PLANNED. PWATS OVER AN INCH COULD BRING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
ON THURSDAY...THERE WILL BE LINGERING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND SHORTWAVE CROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING AS THE FRONT COMPLETES ITS
PASSAGE OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION
SHOULD KEEP ANY ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON ISOLATED AT BEST.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
THURSDAY EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST...PRODUCING CONVECTION ACROSS
MINNESOTA ON FRIDAY...WHICH WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHERN WI LATE IN
THE DAY...AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...STILL HARD TO PIN DOWN THE DETAILS...INCLUDING THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER...AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND CLOUDS
(LIMITING INSTABILITY) WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE NEW CONVECTION
WILL BE ABLE TO FIRE. WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS ON SATURDAY WHEN
MODELS SEEM TO POINT TO THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY OVER THE
AREA. THE REMNANTS OF BILL WILL ATTEMPT TO REACH WI THIS
WEEKEND...BUT THE ZONAL FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THIS
MOISTURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THAT SAID...PWATS BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.5
INCHES WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.
IF THE BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH OF THE AREA...SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY COULD TURN OUT TO BE MAINLY DRY. WILL LEAN THE FORECAST
THAT WAY AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS IS THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO...BUT MODELS STILL SHOWING THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS OR
STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCES MOVING EASTWARD IN THE
ZONAL FLOW. WILL KEEP SOME LOWER POPS IN THIS PERIOD TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1027 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
HIGH AND MIDDLE CLDS SPREAD ACRS MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE
EVENING. THE AREA OF RN TO THE WEST HELD TOGETHER BETTER THAN
EXPECTED...BUT WAS NOW WEAKENING. WL NEED TO ACCOUNT FOR IT IN THE
RHI TAF...AND AUW/CWA COULD SEE SOME SPRINKLES TOO. SOME RE-
DEVELOPMENT OF THE PCPN IS EXPECTED WED.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......BERSCH
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
548 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
AND NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 544 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
HEAVIEST RAINS HAVE SHIFTED SE OF THE AREA. PLAN TO LET THE WRN
USSFA CONT THROUGH TO IT/S 615 PM EXPIRATION...AS HAVE RECEIVED
NUMEROUS REPORTS OF URBAN FLOODING FM THE ATW AREA. THE SECOND
ADVISORY AREA...NRN MTW COUNTY...DID NOT GET AS MUCH RAIN. HAVE
NOT RECEIVED ANY REPORTS OF FLOODING IN THIS AREA...SO WL BE
DROPPING THE MTW ADVISORY SHORTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A COLD
FRONT POSITIONED FROM AROUND LA CROSSE TO IRON MOUNTAIN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO EXPAND ALONG
IT...AIDED BY WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF AN
UPPER JET. THE STORMS HAVE BEEN BEHAVING SO FAR TODAY...BUT ARE
DROPPING A QUICK HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN WITHIN A HUMID
AIRMASS. BEHIND THE FRONT...A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS IS PUSHING
SOUTHEAST AS EVIDENT BY DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 50S AND
UPPER 40S. PRECIP TRENDS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH
THE EVENING...FOLLOWED BY CLOUDS AND TEMPS.
THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND EXIT THE
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN SHORELINE BY EARLY TO MID-EVENING. WITH A MOIST
AND HUMID AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PWATS NEARING 1.75
INCHES...AND ML CAPES OF 400-800 J/KG...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD NOT
HAVE ANY PROBLEM HOLDING THEIR OWN INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. THE
TIME OF ARRIVAL TOOL HAS THE STORMS MOVING INTO THE FOX VALLEY
BETWEEN 20-21Z...AND APPROACHING THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AROUND
00Z THOUGH ISOLATED CELLS MAY POP AHEAD OF THE LINE. EVEN WITH THE
INCREASING INSTABILITY OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN AHEAD OF THE
LINE...WARM MID-LEVELS AROUND 700MB AND HIGH FREEZING LEVELS WILL
LIMIT THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. 0-6KMB BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE
GREATER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED AT AROUND 25-30 KTS...SO WILL HAVE
TO LOOK OUT FOR AN ISOLATED WIND THREAT...BUT THE THREAT IS PROBABLY
TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE HWO. BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL SEE PARTIAL
CLEARING WITH A VEIL OF CIRRUS OVERHEAD.
MIDNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BETTER CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE
LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS THE CIRRUS DEPARTS. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND DRAG IN THE LESS HUMID AIR...WHICH SUPPORTS
LOW TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO UPPER 50S SOUTH. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. SOME OF THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL GET TRAPPED BENEATH THE
INVERSION...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A SCT CU FIELD BY LATE MORNING. NO
THREAT OF PRECIP THOUGH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH
TO MID 70S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
ACTIVE ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. SEVERAL EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES OF VARYING
INTENSITY ARE FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN CONUS BRINING
SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GUIDANCE
NOTORIOUSLY TENDS TO STRUGGLE WITH TIMING...INTENSITY AND LOCATION
OF THE INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES...AND THAT WAS THE RULE AGAIN IN
THIS MODEL CYCLE. BECAUSE THIS IS A GENERALLY LOW CONFIDENCE
SCENARIO...OPTED NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...AND MAINTAINED BROAD CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
EXTENDED.
NEXT IN THE SERIES OF DISTURBANCES STILL LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY. FORTUNATELY IT APPEARS THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
STREAMING OUT OF TEXAS AROUND MID-WEEK SHOULD GET SHUNNED JUST TO
OUR SOUTHEAST....BUT WILL BEAR WATCHING. EVEN SO...STILL ADEQUATE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR THIS DISTURBANCE TO WORK WITH. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST UNTIL
ABOUT 12Z THURSDAY...TO BE FOLLOWED BY A DRY DAY OR SO BEFORE A
POTENTIALLY MORE VIGOROUS SYSTEM BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA EARLY
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM HAS POTENTIAL TO BRING
RATHER SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE RAINFALL TO PARTS OF WISCONSIN AS
WELL AS SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. TOO EARLY TO DECIPHER THE
DETAILS FOR THE WEEKEND SYSTEM.
ESB.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 544 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE AND
COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEGIN TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA. EXPECT ENOUGH
OF A SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LOW-LEVEL CAA TO KEEP FG FM
BECOMING A PROBLEM.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ESB
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A COLD
FRONT POSITIONED FROM AROUND LA CROSSE TO IRON MOUNTAIN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO EXPAND ALONG
IT...AIDED BY WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF AN
UPPER JET. THE STORMS HAVE BEEN BEHAVING SO FAR TODAY...BUT ARE
DROPPING A QUICK HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN WITHIN A HUMID
AIRMASS. BEHIND THE FRONT...A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS IS PUSHING
SOUTHEAST AS EVIDENT BY DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 50S AND
UPPER 40S. PRECIP TRENDS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH
THE EVENING...FOLLOWED BY CLOUDS AND TEMPS.
THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND EXIT THE
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN SHORELINE BY EARLY TO MID-EVENING. WITH A MOIST
AND HUMID AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PWATS NEARING 1.75
INCHES...AND ML CAPES OF 400-800 J/KG...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD NOT
HAVE ANY PROBLEM HOLDING THEIR OWN INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. THE
TIME OF ARRIVAL TOOL HAS THE STORMS MOVING INTO THE FOX VALLEY
BETWEEN 20-21Z...AND APPROACHING THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AROUND
00Z THOUGH ISOLATED CELLS MAY POP AHEAD OF THE LINE. EVEN WITH THE
INCREASING INSTABILITY OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN AHEAD OF THE
LINE...WARM MID-LEVELS AROUND 700MB AND HIGH FREEZING LEVELS WILL
LIMIT THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. 0-6KMB BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE
GREATER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED AT AROUND 25-30 KTS...SO WILL HAVE
TO LOOK OUT FOR AN ISOLATED WIND THREAT...BUT THE THREAT IS PROBABLY
TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE HWO. BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL SEE PARTIAL
CLEARING WITH A VEIL OF CIRRUS OVERHEAD.
MIDNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BETTER CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE
LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS THE CIRRUS DEPARTS. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND DRAG IN THE LESS HUMID AIR...WHICH SUPPORTS
LOW TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO UPPER 50S SOUTH. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. SOME OF THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL GET TRAPPED BENEATH THE
INVERSION...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A SCT CU FIELD BY LATE MORNING. NO
THREAT OF PRECIP THOUGH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH
TO MID 70S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
ACTIVE ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. SEVERAL EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES OF VARYING
INTENSITY ARE FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN CONUS BRINING
SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GUIDANCE
NOTORIOUSLY TENDS TO STRUGGLE WITH TIMING...INTENSITY AND LOCATION
OF THE INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES...AND THAT WAS THE RULE AGAIN IN
THIS MODEL CYCLE. BECAUSE THIS IS A GENERALLY LOW CONFIDENCE
SCENARIO...OPTED NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...AND MAINTAINED BROAD CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
EXTENDED.
NEXT IN THE SERIES OF DISTURBANCES STILL LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY. FORTUNATELY IT APPEARS THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
STREAMING OUT OF TEXAS AROUND MID-WEEK SHOULD GET SHUNNED JUST TO
OUR SOUTHEAST....BUT WILL BEAR WATCHING. EVEN SO...STILL ADEQUATE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR THIS DISTURBANCE TO WORK WITH. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST UNTIL
ABOUT 12Z THURSDAY...TO BE FOLLOWED BY A DRY DAY OR SO BEFORE A
POTENTIALLY MORE VIGOROUS SYSTEM BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA EARLY
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM HAS POTENTIAL TO BRING
RATHER SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE RAINFALL TO PARTS OF WISCONSIN AS
WELL AS SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. TOO EARLY TO DECIPHER THE
DETAILS FOR THE WEEKEND SYSTEM.
ESB.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF
IFR VSBYS IN HEAVY RAIN BUT STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE NOT
EXPECTED. THE STORMS WILL EXIT EASTERN WISCONSIN BY MID-
EVENING...AND SKIES WILL CLEAR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. GOOD
FLYING WEATHER WILL BE PRESENT ON TUESDAY THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ESB
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1247 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
AT 3 AM...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM APOSTLE ISLANDS TO
KANSAS CITY MISSOURI. DEW POINTS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WERE IN THE
60S TO LOWER 70S...AND IN THE 40S AND 50S IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONT. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS NO CONVECTION LOCATED ALONG THIS
FRONT. MEANWHILE FURTHER SOUTH...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF IOWA...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...
AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS PRECIPITATION WAS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN EASTERN NEBRASKA IN A BAND OF 900 TO 500
MB FRONTOGENESIS.
FOR TODAY...THE 15.00Z MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA... WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH IOWA THIS MORNING...AND
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT...THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
1.50 TO 2.00 INCH RANGE. THE HIGHEST TOTALS WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN
IOWA... NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. IN
ADDITION...THE WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS IN THIS AREA WILL BE CLOSE
TO 4 KM. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL MODERATE 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THIS SAME AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY EFFICIENT
RAIN PRODUCERS. RAINFALL TOTALS COULD BE AROUND AN INCH...WITH A
FEW LOCATIONS SEEING UP TO 2 INCHES. WITH THE PRECIPITATION EXPECT
THAT RAP AND NAM ARE TOO HIGH ON THEIR 0-1 KM MIXED LAYER
CAPES...OVERALL PREFER THE LOWER GFS AND ECMWF WHICH HAVE THESE
CAPES LESS THAN 750 J/KG. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE RAP...A
MAJORITY OF THE MODELS HAVE VERY LITTLE 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM
SHEAR...SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...OR
TORNADOES.
FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA. NORMALLY THIS WOULD BE THE SCENARIO
FOR DENSE FOG. HOWEVER THE WINDS ABOVE 500 FEET REMAIN AROUND
20 KNOTS AND THE DRY AIR IS CAUSING DEW DEPARTURES OF 4 TO 8
DEGREES LATE TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE 15.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE QUICKLY EAST THROUGH THE AREA. THE STRONG WESTERLIES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM RESULTS IN 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE EXCESS
OF 50 KNOTS. HOWEVER THIS FRONT IS COMING THROUGH AT THE WRONG
TIME OF DAY AND THE 0-1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPES AT THIS TIME ARE
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...THUS NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER. THE
NAM SHOWS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE INTERACTION FROM A
SYSTEM FROM A SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
MEANWHILE THE GFS IS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE NAM
SOLUTION SEEMS TO BE A BIT TOO FAST...SO WOULD TREND MORE TOWARD
THE GFS.
FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM HAS A SLIGHT
DEEPER TROUGH THAN THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE THE 0-1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPES CLIMBING UP TO 1500 J/KG
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. THEY DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR. THE
GFS HAS 0-6 KM SHEAR GREATER THAN 50 KNOTS. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF
HAS LESS THAN 20 KNOTS. DUE TO THIS DISCREPANCY...THERE ARE A LOT
OF QUESTIONS ON WHETHER THERE WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS
SYSTEM. WHILE THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS...THEY DO SHOW THAT
THERE COULD BE INTERACTION WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE POTENTIAL
TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST GULF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ONGOING SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...AND POSSIBLE IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AT RST/LSE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST 17Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO WESTERN IOWA. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE OVER IOWA INTERACTING WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA/NORTHEAST IOWA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN PER KARX RADAR.
LATEST METARS UNDERNEATH THE SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...REPORTING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. AS THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE RST/LSE TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON...IMPROVING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. AT THIS
TIME...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 19Z TODAY AT RST AND
AROUND 22Z AT LSE. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE REMAINS ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION...DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY. HAVE
CONTINUED THE TREND OF VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORM AT LSE TAF SITE THROUGH
22Z TODAY.
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN
WISCONSIN TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS AT
RST/LSE TAF SITES.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM....BOYNE
AVIATION...DTJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1146 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
.UPDATE...
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN WI THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAIN OVER SOUTHERN WI RIGHT NOW IS SUPPORTED BY
VORTICITY ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE 15Z HRRR RUN
HAS NOW CAUGHT ON TO REALITY AND DOES NOT PRODUCE AS MUCH CONVECTION
OVER SOUTHERN WI THIS AFTERNOON AS ITS PREVIOUS RUNS. CAPE AND SHEAR
ARE VERY LIMITED ACROSS SOUTHERN WI. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AROUND 2 INCHES... PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDER ARE
LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TRACKING IN A LINE THROUGH NORTHWEST
WI AND SOUTHEAST MN TODAY ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT. IT APPEARS
THAT THE BETTER DEFORMATION ALOFT THAT ALIGNS WITH THIS FRONT WILL
DIMINISH BY THE TIME THAT FRONT SLIDES THROUGH SOUTHEAST WI IN THE
EVENING. THUS... PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER 5 PM THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL BE GONE AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH IN
THE EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING WISCONSIN. THE
ROUNDS OF RAIN WILL LOWER THE VSBYS AND CIGS AT TIMES. THE SHOWERS
OR STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING OVER SE WI BUT NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
DENSE FOG DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING...
MAINLY SOUTH OF SHEBOYGAN PER WEBCAMS. THUS... ISSUED A MARINE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 00Z/7 PM THIS EVENING. THE THREAT OF FOG WILL
DIMINISH AS SOON AS NORTHERLY WINDS USHER DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION
BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...CANCELLED DENSE FOG ADVISORY WITH LITTLE TO NO
FOG DEVELOPING. THIS IS PROBABLY DUE TO WLY WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC
AND INCREASING CLOUDS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND TRANSPORT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE MID MO RIVER
VALLEY AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NW WILL TRIGGER ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS TODAY. THE STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOWER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS...AROUND 15-20 KTS WITH VERY HIGH PWS OF 1.6-1.9
INCHES. THUS WILL MENTION A SMALL THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING IN THE
HWO. MLCAPE SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 1000 J/KG WHICH WILL KEEP ANY
CHANCES OF SVR TSTORMS VERY LOW. NLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY DRY OUT THE
ATMOSPHERE TNT WITH 50 DEWPOINTS BY TUE AM.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...HIGH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THE WRN GRT LAKES REGION WITH A
COOLER AND DRIER NE FLOW. 925 TEMPS PROGGD TO BE IN THE LOW/MID
TEENS CELSIUS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAKE FOR THE USUAL EAST/WEST TEMP
GRADIENT FOR THIS REGIME. NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS BOTH SHOW A
VERY DRY COLUMN SO EXPECTING A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. THE NAM
CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER SOLUTION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
SPREADING PRECIP INTO SW CWA IN RETURN FLOW. MEANWHILE
GEM/GFS/ECMWF ARE DRY. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SMALL POPS IN THE SW
CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NAM SOLUTION.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
COMBO OF PIVA WITH SHORTWAVE AND SOME 850 WAA WILL HELP GENERATE
SHRA/TSRA. MODELS SUGGEST WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE IN PLACE
DURING THE DAY WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT ARRIVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
GETTING SOME MODEST CAPE VALUES WITH BORDERLINE 0-6KM SHEAR AND
LESS THAN IDEAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SWODY3 MARGINAL RISK
APPEARS REASONABLE. 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z GEM SUGGEST SOME LINGERING
EFFECTS OF THE FRONT INTO EARLY THURSDAY BUT THE 00Z GFS HAS
TRENDED DRIER. MUCH OF THURSDAY TO BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES
IN. THIS HIGH WILL DOMINATE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS TO KEEP REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM JUST
TO OUR SOUTH WHILE NORTHERN PLAINS LOW EXTENDS WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO WI. HOWEVER ECMWF DOES BRING PRECIP SHIELD INTO SRN
WI WITH THE MID MISS VLY CIRCULATION. IF THAT CAN STAY SOUTH PER
GFS/GEM THEN BULK OF PLAINS SYSTEM PRECIP EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO
OUR WEST OR NORTH...THOUGH THE GFS DOES GIVE MORE OF A BROAD BRUSH
TO THE WAA PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
TIMING AND ORIENTATION DIFFERENCES ON THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA. THE GFS IS QUICKER
WITH INITIAL WEAKER LOW THAT PASSES TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY. THEN BIGGER DIFFERENCES ARISE WITH SECOND AND STRONGER
LOW. ECMWF DEVELOPS LOW ACROSS NRN WI SAT NGT INTO SUNDAY WHILE
GFS IS TRENDING THIS SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH. STRONGER CAA SIGNAL
FROM THE ECMWF ON SUNDAY AS WELL AND NOT AS MUCH FROM THE GFS.
LOTS OF DIFFERENCES AND DETAILS TO IRON OUT AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO
NEXT WEEKEND. WILL GO WITH SUPERBLEND POPS/TEMPS FOR NOW.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...INTERMITTENT SHOWERS AND TSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE ROUNDS OF
RAIN WILL LOWER THE CIGS TO 1.0-3.0 KFT AT TIMES ESPECIALLY DURING
THE MORNING. PREVAILING VSBYS WILL ALSO LOWER TO 3-5SM AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. LOWERS CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE FOUND
WITHIN THE STRONGER SHOWERS OR STORMS. THE SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY
LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING OVER SE WI BUT NLY WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DRY OUT THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
MARINE...CANCELLED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WITH WEBCAMS SHOWING GOOD
VISIBILITY ALONG THE LAKESHORE. SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WHICH
USUALLY LIMITS THE FOG BUT STILL EXPECT SOME FOG TO FORM ESPECIALLY
TOWARD SHEBOYGAN AS DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGH.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ644>646.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...COLLAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
620 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
AT 3 AM...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM APOSTLE ISLANDS TO
KANSAS CITY MISSOURI. DEW POINTS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WERE IN THE
60S TO LOWER 70S...AND IN THE 40S AND 50S IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONT. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS NO CONVECTION LOCATED ALONG THIS
FRONT. MEANWHILE FURTHER SOUTH...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF IOWA...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...
AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS PRECIPITATION WAS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN EASTERN NEBRASKA IN A BAND OF 900 TO 500
MB FRONTOGENESIS.
FOR TODAY...THE 15.00Z MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA... WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH IOWA THIS MORNING...AND
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT...THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
1.50 TO 2.00 INCH RANGE. THE HIGHEST TOTALS WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN
IOWA... NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. IN
ADDITION...THE WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS IN THIS AREA WILL BE CLOSE
TO 4 KM. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL MODERATE 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THIS SAME AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY EFFICIENT
RAIN PRODUCERS. RAINFALL TOTALS COULD BE AROUND AN INCH...WITH A
FEW LOCATIONS SEEING UP TO 2 INCHES. WITH THE PRECIPITATION EXPECT
THAT RAP AND NAM ARE TOO HIGH ON THEIR 0-1 KM MIXED LAYER
CAPES...OVERALL PREFER THE LOWER GFS AND ECMWF WHICH HAVE THESE
CAPES LESS THAN 750 J/KG. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE RAP...A
MAJORITY OF THE MODELS HAVE VERY LITTLE 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM
SHEAR...SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...OR
TORNADOES.
FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA. NORMALLY THIS WOULD BE THE SCENARIO
FOR DENSE FOG. HOWEVER THE WINDS ABOVE 500 FEET REMAIN AROUND
20 KNOTS AND THE DRY AIR IS CAUSING DEW DEPARTURES OF 4 TO 8
DEGREES LATE TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE 15.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE QUICKLY EAST THROUGH THE AREA. THE STRONG WESTERLIES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM RESULTS IN 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE EXCESS
OF 50 KNOTS. HOWEVER THIS FRONT IS COMING THROUGH AT THE WRONG
TIME OF DAY AND THE 0-1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPES AT THIS TIME ARE
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...THUS NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER. THE
NAM SHOWS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE INTERACTION FROM A
SYSTEM FROM A SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
MEANWHILE THE GFS IS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE NAM
SOLUTION SEEMS TO BE A BIT TOO FAST...SO WOULD TREND MORE TOWARD
THE GFS.
FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM HAS A SLIGHT
DEEPER TROUGH THAN THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE THE 0-1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPES CLIMBING UP TO 1500 J/KG
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. THEY DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR. THE
GFS HAS 0-6 KM SHEAR GREATER THAN 50 KNOTS. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF
HAS LESS THAN 20 KNOTS. DUE TO THIS DISCREPANCY...THERE ARE A LOT
OF QUESTIONS ON WHETHER THERE WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS
SYSTEM. WHILE THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS...THEY DO SHOW THAT
THERE COULD BE INTERACTION WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE POTENTIAL
TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST GULF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
THE COMBINATION OF A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND A
SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM NEB IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SCT
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE MAIN TIMING FOR THESE LOOK TO
BE FROM 15-19Z AT KRST AND 16-20Z AT KLSE. WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCT
COVERAGE AS THE SHRA/TSRA MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...LEFT THIS AS A
PERIOD OF VCTS/CB WITH MVFR CIGS AT THIS TIME. STRONGER SHRA/TSRA
AND PRECIP CORES WILL PRODUCE IFR VSBYS...AS ANY CONVECTION TODAY
SHOULD BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. GOOD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR TONIGHT AS COOLER/DRIER CAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 5-9KTS AND THE DRIER AIRMASS WITH THE HIGH SHOULD KEEP ANY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING BR AROUND 12Z TUE TO A MINIMUM.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM....BOYNE
AVIATION.....RRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
350 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
AT 3 AM...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM APOSTLE ISLANDS TO
KANSAS CITY MISSOURI. DEW POINTS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WERE IN THE
60S TO LOWER 70S...AND IN THE 40S AND 50S IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONT. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS NO CONVECTION LOCATED ALONG THIS
FRONT. MEANWHILE FURTHER SOUTH...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF IOWA...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...
AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS PRECIPITATION WAS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN EASTERN NEBRASKA IN A BAND OF 900 TO 500
MB FRONTOGENESIS.
FOR TODAY...THE 15.00Z MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA... WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH IOWA THIS MORNING...AND
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT...THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
1.50 TO 2.00 INCH RANGE. THE HIGHEST TOTALS WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN
IOWA... NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. IN
ADDITION...THE WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS IN THIS AREA WILL BE CLOSE
TO 4 KM. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL MODERATE 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THIS SAME AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY EFFICIENT
RAIN PRODUCERS. RAINFALL TOTALS COULD BE AROUND AN INCH...WITH A
FEW LOCATIONS SEEING UP TO 2 INCHES. WITH THE PRECIPITATION EXPECT
THAT RAP AND NAM ARE TOO HIGH ON THEIR 0-1 KM MIXED LAYER
CAPES...OVERALL PREFER THE LOWER GFS AND ECMWF WHICH HAVE THESE
CAPES LESS THAN 750 J/KG. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE RAP...A
MAJORITY OF THE MODELS HAVE VERY LITTLE 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM
SHEAR...SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...OR
TORNADOES.
FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA. NORMALLY THIS WOULD BE THE SCENARIO
FOR DENSE FOG. HOWEVER THE WINDS ABOVE 500 FEET REMAIN AROUND
20 KNOTS AND THE DRY AIR IS CAUSING DEW DEPARTURES OF 4 TO 8
DEGREES LATE TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE 15.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE QUICKLY EAST THROUGH THE AREA. THE STRONG WESTERLIES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM RESULTS IN 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE EXCESS
OF 50 KNOTS. HOWEVER THIS FRONT IS COMING THROUGH AT THE WRONG
TIME OF DAY AND THE 0-1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPES AT THIS TIME ARE
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...THUS NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER. THE
NAM SHOWS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE INTERACTION FROM A
SYSTEM FROM A SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
MEANWHILE THE GFS IS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE NAM
SOLUTION SEEMS TO BE A BIT TOO FAST...SO WOULD TREND MORE TOWARD
THE GFS.
FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM HAS A SLIGHT
DEEPER TROUGH THAN THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE THE 0-1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPES CLIMBING UP TO 1500 J/KG
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. THEY DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR. THE
GFS HAS 0-6 KM SHEAR GREATER THAN 50 KNOTS. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF
HAS LESS THAN 20 KNOTS. DUE TO THIS DISCREPANCY...THERE ARE A LOT
OF QUESTIONS ON WHETHER THERE WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS
SYSTEM. WHILE THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS...THEY DO SHOW THAT
THERE COULD BE INTERACTION WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE POTENTIAL
TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST GULF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
A MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF BR AND
POSSIBLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH VISIBILITIES FALLING INTO THE 4 TO
5 SM RANGE. A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTH INTO THE REGION AND A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST IOWA WILL
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
MONDAY MORNING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE UNDER ANY THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE
REGION. THE FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS
AND STORMS TAPERING OFF AND SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY EVENING. LOOK FOR WINDS TO SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS OF 9 TO 11 KTS
EXPECTED.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1128 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST OVER WEST-CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. OUTSIDE OF A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS...THE WARM FRONT IS LARGELY
INACTIVE OVER MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
GENERATING SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA...BUT IT IS ALSO QUIET ELSEWHERE ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
CLOSER TO HOME...CLOUD COVER IS GRADUALLY BREAKING UP AS HEATING
HELPS MIX INTO DRIER AIR ABOVE THE INVERSION. CLEARING SHOULD ALSO
WORK INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WI FROM THE WEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TRENDS...AND FOG
POTENTIAL.
TONIGHT...SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STALLED FROM APPROX.
LA CROSSE TO SHEBOYGAN. MEANWHILE...A POCKET OF DRY AIR IN THE MID-
LEVELS WILL EXIST NEAR THE WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT
WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN LATE. THIS DRY AIR SHOULD
KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. THE LONE EXCEPTION
WILL BE OVER N-C WISCONSIN WHERE SOME SHOWERS COULD SNEAK INTO THAT
AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HAVE THOUGHT ABOUT ADDING A CHANCE OF A
SHOWER ALONG THE WARM FRONT...BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT IN THE UPPER
SUPPORT THAT THE NAM PRODUCES. OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLEARING THIS EVENING IF NOT MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...WHICH
WILL PROMOTE FOG FORMATION ONCE AGAIN. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE
REASONABLY LOW EVERYWHERE...SO HARD TO POINT TO A FAVORED AREA.
LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH.
MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND PASS OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI DURING THE MORNING...AND EASTERN WI IN
THE AFTERNOON. PRECIP COVERAGE UPSTREAM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS
NOT IMPRESSIVE...SO DID NOT WANT TO TAKE POPS INTO THE LIKELY RANGE.
BUT THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF JET STREAK DOES PROVIDE SOME UPPER
SUPPORT...SO FELT COMPELLED TO LEAVE PRECIP IN THE HIGH CHANCE AREA.
IF HEATING OCCURS OVER THE EAST...ML CAPES COULD REACH UP TO AROUND
500 J/KG. BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ONLY AROUND 20 KTS...SO ANY
STORMS THAT POP UP SHOULD BE OF THE PULSE VARIETY...WITH LITTLE
CHANCES OF ANYTHING SEVERE. HIGHS WILL APPROACH 80 OVER EASTERN
WISCONSIN...BUT REMAIN IN THE MID 70S OVER THE NORTH WHERE RAIN
COULD OCCUR DURING THE MORNING.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
NEAR ZONAL FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK AND TO SOME DEGREE EVEN
INTO NEXT WEEKEND PROVIDES PCPN CHANCES NEARLY EVERY OTHER DAY OR
TWO WITH TIMING THESE FEATURES THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE. INITIAL
SHORT WAVE SLIDING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND NEAR
THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL DRAG A COOL FRONT EAST OF THE STATE LATER
MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL MODEL TIMING CONSENSUS DEPARTS ANY
CONVECTION TO THE EAST MONDAY EVENING...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE
A MENTION OVER PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN DUE TO THE RRQ
REGION OF THE UPPER JET PASSING OVER.
HIGH PRESS DRIFTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY PRIOR TO THE NEXT SUBTLE SHORT WAVE WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE AREA IS
PROGGED TO PASS OVER FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...A BIT SLOWER
PASSAGE PROBABLY DUE TO GRADUALLY BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS.
ECMWF ALSO DROPS A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS NEXT WEEKEND WHILE THE GFS SPLITS UP THE ENERGY A BIT IN
THE WESTERLY FLOW. NEVERTHELESS...PCPN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL NOT BE
TOO FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA. DUE NOTICE SOME OF THE STABILITY PROGS
SHOW MORE INSTABILITY FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH SATURDAY THE FOCUS
AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
MAIN AVIATION FORECAST ISSUE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG/LOW CLDS TO
REFORM AGAIN TNGT. TEMP/DWPT DIFFERENCES CLOSED UP VERY RAPIDLY
DURING THE EVENING. STILL PLAN TO HAVE AT LEAST SOME FG/ST FORM
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH HIGH/MIDDLE CLDS MAY HELP HOLD THINGS IN CHECK
SOMEWHAT. ONE AREA WERE THAT WON/T HELP IS NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN...WHERE VERY MOIST AIR FLOWING ACRS THE COLD LAKE WATERS
WL RESULT IN LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
419 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2015
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF OUR
SOUTHEAST WY ZONES EXCEPT NIOBRARA COUNTY THROUGH 11 PM. MLCAPE IS
UP TO 1000-1500 J/KG ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. BULK
SHEAR IS AROUND 40 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS LESS UNSTABLE (CAPE
LESS THAN 1000 J/KG) ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS WHERE LOW CLOUDS
HAVE BEEN MORE PERSISTENT. CONVECTION HAS BROKEN OUT OVER
CARBON/ALBANY COUNTIES WITH A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SVR CELLS.
THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW THIS CONVECTION EVOLVES THROUGH THE
EVENING AS IT MOVES INTO AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
THE HRRR DOES INDICATE SOME STRONGER STORMS THROUGH 03Z OVER
SOUTHEAST WY BEFORE THE ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE CLUSTERED AND
MULTICELLULAR ESPECIALLY OVER CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA COUNTIES. ALL
OF THE MODELS SHOW A GOOD AMOUNT OF QPF THROUGH SUNRISE TUESDAY IN
THE NORTHERN ZONES AND NORTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST WY. THIS IS WHERE
THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING
SHORTWAVE. ALTHOUGH THE STEERING FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY SLOW
(20-25 KTS)...WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING SINCE SOME OF
THE EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE CELLS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY
RAIN. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY LATE TONIGHT.
THE DECENT RISK FOR SVR STORMS TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
CONTINUES TO LOOK ON TRACK FOR TUESDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE MUCH
BETTER ON TUES OVER THE PLAINS AND ESPECIALLY THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. THE SFC TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE WY-NE BORDER
DURING THE AFTN AND THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE TRIGGER FOR CONVECTIVE
INITATION. THE COMBINATION OF BULK SHEAR OF 45-50 KTS AND CAPES
NEAR 1500 J/KG WILL PROMOTE A GOOD CHANCE OF STORMS TO BECOME
SUPERCELLULAR. THINKING IS LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT AS
LLVL SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK AND HODOGRAPHS ARE STRAIGHT. SPC HAS
MUCH OF THE PLAINS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR WEATHER ON TUES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2015
WEDNESDAY...SOUTHEASTERLY LLVL FLOW WILL BE DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTN WITH GOOD INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. COULD SEE ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF STRONG TO SVR STORMS
GIVEN THAT BULK SHEAR IS 35-40 KTS.
THURSDAY...MOSTLY DRY AND QUITE WARM WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT PRODUCING ENOUGH CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
FRIDAY...FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS OUT WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALOFT MOVING
ACROSS...THOUGH WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...MINIMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY...MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES ACROSS AND WITH
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND CORRESPONDING
DECREASE IN WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WILL SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
SUNDAY...HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE WITH FLOW TURNING NORTHWEST AND WITH
DRIER LOW AND MID LEVELS...WILL SEE A DECREASE IN AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AREAL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2015
LOW STRATUS REMAINS INTACT ALONG/EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT A FEW TERMINALS
THROUGH 20-21Z...BUT IN GENERAL EXPECT CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY ERODE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP WEST THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AND
MOVING EAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
ARE POSSIBLE BENEATH HEAVIER STORMS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2015
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS
AND EVENINGS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 15-20 PERCENT TO
THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON THESE DAYS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WYZ101>103.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...CLH/RUBIN
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...ZF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1240 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT MON JUN 15 2015
VERY ACTIVE WEATHERWISE IN THE SHORT TERM. FORECAST CHALLENGES
DEAL WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.
CURRENTLY...COLD FRONT PRETTY MUCH LOCATED WHERE
ADVERTISED...GENERALLY FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA...TO SIDNEY...ALONG
THE WYOMING/COLORADO STATELINE OUT TO NEAR RAWLINS THIS MORNING AT
1 AM. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING MCV FEATURE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE MOVING EAST AND JUST ABOUT TO CLEAR CHEYENNE COUNTY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWING THE SHORTWAVE THAT KICKED
OFF CONVECTION TO THE NORTH IS JUST ABOUT TO CLEAR THE
WYOMING/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER...WHICH SHOULD BRING CONVECTION TO AN
END FOR THE MOST PART UP THERE. NEXT SHORTWAVE TO IMPACT THE AREA
MOVING INTO IDAHO THIS MORNING WITH ANOTHER JUST MOVING ONSHORE
NEAR THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON BORDER.
FOR TODAY...ONCE THIS CONVECTION ENDS...DO EXPECT TO SEE STRATUS
DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE BEHIND THE FRONT. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE
SHOWING THE STRATUS PUSHING AS FAR WEST AS THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS
MORNING. IT MAY BE SLOW TO BREAK UP WITH EAST TO NORTHEAST UPSLOPE
WINDS CONTINUING. LATEST NAM CAPES FOR THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING
MOST UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN OUR WESTERN ZONES WITH MUCAPE AROUND
2000 J/KG ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. COULD BE DEALING
WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OUT THAT WAY TODAY.
BY TONIGHT...GUIDANCE SHOWING THE FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES. NAM...GFS AND ECMWF TARGETING HIGH QPF
FORECASTS OVER CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA COUNTIES. FORECAST STORM
MOTIONS BY DOUGLAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT UNDER 10KTS
AND PWATS OVER AN INCH. DECIDED TO HOIST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
CONVERSE/NIOBRARA COUNTIES FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.
GET A LITTLE BREAK IN THE ACTION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT BY
AFTERNOON...SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION. THE
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE CALIFORNIA/OREGON WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. NAM MUCAPES OVER 3500 J/KG IN THE PANHANDLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. LIFTED INDICES -7 TO -8C WITH 40-60KTS OF SHEAR OUT IN
THE PANHANDLE. DO BELIEVE ALL MODES OF SEVERE CONVECTIVE WEATHER
WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 AM MDT MON JUN 15 2015
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
THURSDAY...MOSTLY DRY AND QUITE WARM WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT PRODUCING ENOUGH CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
FRIDAY...FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS OUT WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALOFT MOVING
ACROSS...THOUGH WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...MINIMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY...MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES ACROSS AND WITH
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND CORRESPONDING
DECREASE IN WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WILL SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
SUNDAY...HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE WITH FLOW TURNING NORTHWEST AND WITH
DRIER LOW AND MID LEVELS...WILL SEE A DECREASE IN AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AREAL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2015
LOW STRATUS REMAINS INTACT ALONG/EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT A FEW TERMINALS
THROUGH 20-21Z...BUT IN GENERAL EXPECT CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY ERODE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP WEST THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AND
MOVING EAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
ARE POSSIBLE BENEATH HEAVIER STORMS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 125 AM MDT MON JUN 15 2015
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MINIMAL AS MOST AREAS IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE RECEIVE WETTING RAINS THROUGH TUESDAY. A
STALLED OUT COLD FRONT ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL BE THE
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR WIDESPREAD RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT FOR WYZ101>103.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...GCC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
535 AM MDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT MON JUN 15 2015
VERY ACTIVE WEATHERWISE IN THE SHORT TERM. FORECAST CHALLENGES
DEAL WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.
CURRENTLY...COLD FRONT PRETTY MUCH LOCATED WHERE
ADVERTISED...GENERALLY FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA...TO SIDNEY...ALONG
THE WYOMING/COLORADO STATELINE OUT TO NEAR RAWLINS THIS MORNING AT
1 AM. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING MCV FEATURE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE MOVING EAST AND JUST ABOUT TO CLEAR CHEYENNE COUNTY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWING THE SHORTWAVE THAT KICKED
OFF CONVECTION TO THE NORTH IS JUST ABOUT TO CLEAR THE
WYOMING/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER...WHICH SHOULD BRING CONVECTION TO AN
END FOR THE MOST PART UP THERE. NEXT SHORTWAVE TO IMPACT THE AREA
MOVING INTO IDAHO THIS MORNING WITH ANOTHER JUST MOVING ONSHORE
NEAR THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON BORDER.
FOR TODAY...ONCE THIS CONVECTION ENDS...DO EXPECT TO SEE STRATUS
DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE BEHIND THE FRONT. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE
SHOWING THE STRATUS PUSHING AS FAR WEST AS THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS
MORNING. IT MAY BE SLOW TO BREAK UP WITH EAST TO NORTHEAST UPSLOPE
WINDS CONTINUING. LATEST NAM CAPES FOR THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING
MOST UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN OUR WESTERN ZONES WITH MUCAPE AROUND
2000 J/KG ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. COULD BE DEALING
WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OUT THAT WAY TODAY.
BY TONIGHT...GUIDANCE SHOWING THE FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES. NAM...GFS AND ECMWF TARGETING HIGH QPF
FORECASTS OVER CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA COUNTIES. FORECAST STORM
MOTIONS BY DOUGLAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT UNDER 10KTS
AND PWATS OVER AN INCH. DECIDED TO HOIST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
CONVERSE/NIOBRARA COUNTIES FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.
GET A LITTLE BREAK IN THE ACTION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT BY
AFTERNOON...SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION. THE
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE CALIFORNIA/OREGON WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. NAM MUCAPES OVER 3500 J/KG IN THE PANHANDLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. LIFTED INDICES -7 TO -8C WITH 40-60KTS OF SHEAR OUT IN
THE PANHANDLE. DO BELIEVE ALL MODES OF SEVERE CONVECTIVE WEATHER
WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 AM MDT MON JUN 15 2015
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
THURSDAY...MOSTLY DRY AND QUITE WARM WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT PRODUCING ENOUGH CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
FRIDAY...FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS OUT WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALOFT MOVING
ACROSS...THOUGH WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...MINIMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY...MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES ACROSS AND WITH
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND CORRESPONDING
DECREASE IN WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WILL SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
SUNDAY...HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE WITH FLOW TURNING NORTHWEST AND WITH
DRIER LOW AND MID LEVELS...WILL SEE A DECREASE IN AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AREAL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 532 AM MDT MON JUN 15 2015
WYOMING TAFS...IFR AT CHEYENNE UNTIL 15Z...AND MVFR FROM 15Z TO
18Z...OTHERWISE VFR PREVAILS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LOCALIZED MVFR
AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS.
NEBRASKA TAFS...IFR PREVAILS UNTIL 15Z...THEN VFR WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING LOCALIZED MVFR AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 125 AM MDT MON JUN 15 2015
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MINIMAL AS MOST AREAS IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE RECEIVE WETTING RAINS THROUGH TUESDAY. A
STALLED OUT COLD FRONT ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL BE THE
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR WIDESPREAD RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT FOR WYZ101>103.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...GCC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
223 AM MDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT MON JUN 15 2015
VERY ACTIVE WEATHERWISE IN THE SHORT TERM. FORECAST CHALLENGES
DEAL WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.
CURRENTLY...COLD FRONT PRETTY MUCH LOCATED WHERE
ADVERTISED...GENERALLY FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA...TO SIDNEY...ALONG
THE WYOMING/COLORADO STATELINE OUT TO NEAR RAWLINS THIS MORNING AT
1 AM. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING MCV FEATURE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE MOVING EAST AND JUST ABOUT TO CLEAR CHEYENNE COUNTY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWING THE SHORTWAVE THAT KICKED
OFF CONVECTION TO THE NORTH IS JUST ABOUT TO CLEAR THE
WYOMING/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER...WHICH SHOULD BRING CONVECTION TO AN
END FOR THE MOST PART UP THERE. NEXT SHORTWAVE TO IMPACT THE AREA
MOVING INTO IDAHO THIS MORNING WITH ANOTHER JUST MOVING ONSHORE
NEAR THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON BORDER.
FOR TODAY...ONCE THIS CONVECTION ENDS...DO EXPECT TO SEE STRATUS
DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE BEHIND THE FRONT. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE
SHOWING THE STRATUS PUSHING AS FAR WEST AS THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS
MORNING. IT MAY BE SLOW TO BREAK UP WITH EAST TO NORTHEAST UPSLOPE
WINDS CONTINUING. LATEST NAM CAPES FOR THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING
MOST UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN OUR WESTERN ZONES WITH MUCAPE AROUND
2000 J/KG ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. COULD BE DEALING
WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OUT THAT WAY TODAY.
BY TONIGHT...GUIDANCE SHOWING THE FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES. NAM...GFS AND ECMWF TARGETING HIGH QPF
FORECASTS OVER CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA COUNTIES. FORECAST STORM
MOTIONS BY DOUGLAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT UNDER 10KTS
AND PWATS OVER AN INCH. DECIDED TO HOIST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
CONVERSE/NIOBRARA COUNTIES FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.
GET A LITTLE BREAK IN THE ACTION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT BY
AFTERNOON...SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION. THE
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE CALIFORNIA/OREGON WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. NAM MUCAPES OVER 3500 J/KG IN THE PANHANDLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. LIFTED INDICES -7 TO -8C WITH 40-60KTS OF SHEAR OUT IN
THE PANHANDLE. DO BELIEVE ALL MODES OF SEVERE CONVECTIVE WEATHER
WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 AM MDT MON JUN 15 2015
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
THURSDAY...MOSTLY DRY AND QUITE WARM WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT PRODUCING ENOUGH CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
FRIDAY...FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS OUT WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALOFT MOVING
ACROSS...THOUGH WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...MINIMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY...MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES ACROSS AND WITH
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND CORRESPONDING
DECREASE IN WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WILL SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
SUNDAY...HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE WITH FLOW TURNING NORTHWEST AND WITH
DRIER LOW AND MID LEVELS...WILL SEE A DECREASE IN AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AREAL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING STORMS WEAKENING OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL AID IN UPSLOPING
STRATUS AND POSSIBLY FOG...ESPECIALLY OUT IN THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. USED LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE FOR TIMING OF IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS. STRATUS COULD PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING. WILL
TRY TO NAIL DOWN DISSIPATION TIME ON THE 12Z TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 125 AM MDT MON JUN 15 2015
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MINIMAL AS MOST AREAS IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE RECEIVE WETTING RAINS THROUGH TUESDAY. A
STALLED OUT COLD FRONT ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL BE THE
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR WIDESPREAD RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
WYZ101>103.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...GCC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1105 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015
WEAK FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE REGION WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS BEHIND IT. TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE SFC TROUGH FROM
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN COLORADO INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THESE STORMS
ARE NOT MAKING MUCH HEADWAY TO THE WEST AND ARE RATHER STATIONARY.
MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW AN UPTICK IN SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE ALONG AND
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AFTER 00Z. THE HRRR DOES SHOW SOME
STRONGER STORMS INITIATING OVER THE NORTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND
MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CONVERSE AND NORTHERN PLATTE COUNTIES FROM
00-03Z. LAPS ANALYSIS DOES SHOW 1500 J/KG OF CAPE UP THERE ALONG
WITH A BIT STRONGER FLOW ALOFT THAT YIELDS DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF
AROUND 30KTS. THE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT WOULD SUPPORT SMALL HAIL
OR EVEN A MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM THROUGH THE EVENING. THE TSTM
THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY NIGHT (A BIT LATER THAN NORMAL)
OVER MAINLY SOUTHEAST WY AS THE MODELS INDICATE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. GENERALLY HAVE 40-50 PERCENT POPS THROUGH 06Z. ALSO
ADDED PATCHY FOG ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE BY LATE TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH
THIS WILL DEPEND ON ANY ONGOING RAIN.
LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY TO THE EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE IN PLACE.
INSTABILITY IS WEAK OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS IN THE POST FRONTAL
AIR MASS. THE GFS SHOWS THE BEST INSTABILITY ALONG THE LARAMIE
RANGE WITH CAPE VALUES OF 1250-1500 J/KG. SPC HAS MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST WY IN A MARGINAL RISK AND THIS LOOKS GOOD. STORMS COULD
WAIT TO INITIATE UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE
SINCE THERE WILL BE A GOOD DEAL OF INHIBITION THROUGH THE DAY. A
SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH CENTRAL WY BY THE EVENING AND MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN WY DURING THE NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE STORMS
GOING...SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG... THROUGH SUNRISE ON TUESDAY
ESPECIALLY OVER CONVERSE/NIOBRARA COUNTIES. THE BEST SEVERE THREAT
IS STILL LOOKING LIKE TUESDAY AFTN OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS SOMEWHERE NEAR THE WY-NE BORDER BY THE AFTN
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS TO EAST OF THE DRYLINE. WITH DEWPOINTS OF
55-60F AND WARM SFC TEMPS...CAPE IS UP TO 2500 J/KG...AND BULK
SHEAR IS 45-50 KTS...A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONG SUPERCELLS AND
LARGE HAIL.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015
AN ACTIVE PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT STAYING INTACT OVER THE CWA. WHILE MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY
IN THE TIMING/PLACEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES...PERSISTENT LEE
TROUGHING AND PERIODIC LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION EACH AFTN/EVE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE EVENT APPEARS TO BE WED EVENING WITH EXCELLENT
CONVERGENCE AND EASTERLY UPSLOPE NEAR THE SFC. THE GFS SUGGESTS DEW
POINTS IN THE 50S ALONG/EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH SBCAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 1500-2500 J/KG. STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP BOOST 0-6
KM SHEAR VALUES TO 40+ KTS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...SO SEVERE
CONVECTION COULD VERY WELL BE A HAZARD. BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW
LONG IT TAKES TO ERODE THE CAP WITH WARM AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE
WEST. GENERALLY A TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONAL WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. FRIDAY COULD BE RATHER WARM
WITH GFS/ECM H7 TEMPS IN THE 16-18 DEG C RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA BENEATH FLAT RIDGING. LATEST MEX GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPPER 80S
INTO THE MID 90S FROM CYS TO SNY... BUT HARD TO SAY HOW MUCH
AFTERNOON CU WILL IMPACT HIGHS. CONTINUED TO TREND WARMER IN THIS
PATTERN. THINK WE WILL STILL HAVE AT LEAST A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AROUND ON THU/FRI...BUT STRONG CAPPING IS
LIKELY WITH SUCH WARM THERMAL PROFILES. KEPT THINGS ISOLATED FOR
THE TIME BEING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING STORMS WEAKENING OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL AID IN UPSLOPING
STRATUS AND POSSIBLY FOG...ESPECIALLY OUT IN THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. USED LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE FOR TIMING OF IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS. STRATUS COULD PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING. WILL
TRY TO NAIL DOWN DISSIPATION TIME ON THE 12Z TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AFTER A
COOLER DAY ON MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 20-30
PERCENT TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOONS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...ZF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
401 AM MDT WED JUN 17 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT WED JUN 16 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL COLORADO WITH CONTINUED ASSOCIATED SHOWERS OVER SUMMIT AND
PARK COUNTIES. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EAST THIS MORNING EXPECT SOME
DRYING OVER MOUNTAINS AND FRONT RANGE. OVERALL MOISTURE LEVELS
WILL BE LOWER TODAY AS INTEGRATED PW VALUES HAVE DROPPED A COUPLE
TENTHS IN THE PAST 24 HOURS OVER THE FRONT RANGE. THERE WAS SOME
FOG POTENTIAL AS INDICATED BY NAM AND LESSER EXTENT THE RAP BUT
APPEARS NAM WAS WAY OVERDONE WITH MOISTURE THIS AM AS DEWPOINTS
ARE SUPPOSED TO BE IN THE LOWER 60S NOW AND THROUGH THE DAY.
EXTENSIVE MID/HI CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF METAR PLOTS TONIGHT
RESULTING IN HARD TIME SEEING IF THERE IS ANY FOG/STRATUS ON THE
PLAINS. NON-NWS SURFACE PLOTS INDICATE THERE IS ENOUGH T/TD
SPREADS THAT WON`T SEE MUCH FOG THIS AM AND WON`T INCLUDE IN ZONES.
WITH OVERZEALOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM NAM WILL DISCOUNT THAT
MODEL AS IT INDICATED UP TO 3000J/KG OF CAPE. RAP SEEMED BETTER
WITH 700-1500J/KG BASED ON DEWPOINTS FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S
ON THE PLAINS WHICH LOOKS MORE REASONABLE. EVEN LATEST HRRR ONLY
HAS ISOLATED COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF PALMER
DIVIDE AND CYS RIDGE. ALSO AREA WILL BE UNDER WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. WILL LOWER POPS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING TO MAINLY ISOLATED COVERAGE HIGHEST CHANCES
REMAINING ON EAST SLOPES AND HIGHER TERRAIN.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT WED JUN 16 2015
DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS STILL ON TRACK THURSDAY AND BEYOND
WITH A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR WEST. NOT UNCOMMON FOR
A STRONG... NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER RIDGE/HEAT DOME TO ENVELOP
COLORADO AND THE SOUTHWEST U.S. DURING THE LATTER HALF OF JUNE
PRIOR TO THE UNSET OF THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON. LATEST MOS
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE INDICATES A STRING OF 90 PLUS DEGREE DAYS
FOR THE PLAINS BEGINNING THURSDAY. WARMEST AIR ALOFT COINCIDENT
WITH THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS OVER THE FCST AREA ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...EQUATING TO HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS BOTH DAYS. DO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER TO
GET IN THE WAY. ALTHOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT A STRAY GUSTY HIGH BASED
T-STORM OR TWO OVR AND NEAR THE FRONT RANGE WITH ALL OF THE SOIL
MOISTURE AROUND AND STEEP AFTERNOON LAPSE RATES. SEE THIS MAINLY
HAPPENING ON FRIDAY.
SUNDAY...MAY BE EVEN WARMER WITH A 596 DECAMETER RIDGE SQUARELY
OVER COLORADO. HOWEVER A COUPLE OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL
SHOW A WEAK MID-LEVEL PERTABATION ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
AND BRUSHING THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF COLORADO LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. AROUND THE SAME TIME THEY ALSO SHOW A
WEAK COLD FRONT OR SFC TROUGH BACKING INTO THE NERN CORNER OF THE
STATE ON MOIST EAST-SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW. ITS POSSIBLE A FEW
T-STORMS COULD FIRE ALONG THIS SFC BNDRY/THETA-E AXIS AS THE UPPER
AIR FEATURE PASSING BY. OTHERWISE SUNDAY LOOKS DRY AND QUITE WARM
FOR THE REST OF THE CWA. GOOD DAY FOR A BBQ.
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SEE LITTLE IN THE WAY CHANGE WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE KEEPING ITS GRIP ON THE CENTRAL CONUS. THAT MEANS
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AND PRECIP CHANCES NEAR ZERO BOTH
DAYS. HOWEVER...THE 00Z EUROPEAN MODEL INDICATES THE START OF A
WETTER PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR TUESDAY. IT SHOWS THE CORE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE QUICKLY SHIFTING WELL EAST OF COLORADO ON TUESDAY
WHICH OPENS THE ROCKY MTN REGION TO A MOIST SOUTHERLY TROPICAL
FLOW. LOOKS RATHER MONSOONISH. THE WAY THIS YEAR HAS BEEN GOING
WITH EL NINO STRENGTHENING IN THE PACIFIC...FEEL THE NEED TO
INTRODUCE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF T-STORMS MAINLY FOR THE
HIGH COUNTRY LATE TUESDAY AND LOWER TEMPS BY A DEG OR TWO FROM
THOSE EXPECTED THE DAY BEFORE TO ACCOUNT FOR A POSSIBLE INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT WED JUN 16 2015
WILL DOWNPLAY FOG THREAT AND REMOVE FG/LOW CLOUDS THIS AM WITH
CONSIDERABLE MID CLOUD COVERAGE AND WEAK DRAINAGE WINDS IN PLACE.
AS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY...WEAK RIDGING WILL MOVE IN BUT
STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT. MOST
OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE STORMS ANCHORED ON EAST SLOPES
AND PALMER DIVIDE. GIVEN EXPECTED MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE WILL
REMOVE THE TEMPO GROUPS FROM UPCOMING TERMINAL FORECASTS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT WED JUN 16 2015
A BIT DRIER AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE OF
STORMS TODAY WHILE STORMS WILL BE MOVING AT A DECENT CLIP WILL
RESULT IN LOW CHANCES FOR FLASH FLOODING TODAY. NO CHANGES TO
CURRENT FLOOD WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN
HYDROLOGY...ENTREKIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
356 AM MDT WED JUN 17 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM MDT WED JUN 17 2015
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO DRY OUT TODAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER SHOULD DROP THROUGHOUT THE DAY...REACHING JUST ABOUT A HALF
INCH BY 00Z ACCORDING TO FORECAST SOUNDING. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD BE RELEGATED TO THE MOUNTAINS OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MAX TEMPS SHOULD HIT THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S AT MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS.
AFTER A CLEAR NIGHT...THURSDAY SHOULD BRING ANOTHER DRY AND HOT
DAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 0.4 AND 0.5 INCH
ACCORDING TO THE FORECAST KGJT SOUNDING...WITH EVEN LESS CUMULUS
BUILDUP OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE
GFS STILL SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING OVER AND THROUGH
THE RIDGE...WITH NO HINT OF THIS FEATURE IN THE NAM. SINCE PWAT IN
THE 00Z KSLC SOUNDING WAS DOWN TO 0.59 INCH AT 00Z AND PROJECTED
TO LOWER TO BETWEEN 0.3 AND 0.4 IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS...BELIEVE
THE DRYING WILL BE REAL FOR THURSDAY. SO HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF TSTMS ONLY ALONG THE EASTERN CWA BORDER OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. NEITHER MODEL RUN AT 00Z SHOWS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING
AS IN PREVIOUS RUNS...SO HAVE DECREASED AFTERNOON WINDS AS WELL.
TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO RISE WITH MAXES IN THE LOWER AND MID 90S
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM MDT WED JUN 17 2015
HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OFFSHORE FROM SRN AND BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL
SLOWLY MIGRATE EAST AND BE POSITIONED OVER NEW MEXICO BY NEXT
TUESDAY. THIS ESSENTIALLY SHUTS DOWN ANY POTENTIAL MOISTURE PLUMES
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. DRY AND HOT WEATHER (NOT QUITE JULY HOT)
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE
IS ONE SMALL CAVEAT...ONCE HIGH PRESSURE REACHES NEW MEXICO...
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BY NEXT TUESDAY
THANKS TO STEEP AFTERNOON LAPSE RATES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015
ACTIVE TSRA ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY OF KRIL-KEGE WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL 08Z-09Z PER HRRR MODEL. ONCE THIS ACTIVITY ENDS...THEN NO
TAF SITES SHOULD BE IMPACTED BY ANY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 06Z
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA MAY FORM EAST OF KEGE-KASE-
KGUC-KTEX BETWEEN 18Z-02Z.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1155 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 819 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015
UPDATED TO REMOVE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HEADLINES. STORMS
HAVE SUBSIDED AND THE ONLY MODERATE STORMS STILL ACTIVE WILL
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE WATCH AREA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 710 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015
THE CHANCE OF STRONG STORMS PULLED EAST OF DAGGETT COUNTY UT SO
REMOVED DAGGETT COUNTY FROM THE WATCH AREA. STORMS SHOULD FOCUS
OVER RIO BLANCO AND EASTERN GARFIELD COUNTIES THROUGH 04Z. THE
FLATTOPS AND THE PICEANCE BASIN ALONG THE RIO BLANCO AND GARFIELD
COUNTY LINES WILL BE THE PRIME AREA FOR STRONG STORMS. SEVERAL
MODERATELY STRONG STORMS WILL PASS OVER I-70 BETWEEN SILT AND
VAIL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 457 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS NW CO AND
ESPECIALLY NE UT. SEVERE STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. ONE FUNNEL
CLOUD WAS REPORTED AT 155 PM IN EASTERN DAGGETT COUNTY. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES ACROSS DAGGETT...MOFFAT AND ROUTT
COUNTIES UNTIL 10 PM. SIGNIFICANT STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER
UINTAH COUNTY AS WELL AS RIO BLANCO...GARFIELD...MESA...NORTHERN
DELTA...EAGLE AND PITKIN COUNTIES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR DAGGETT...MOFFAT...AND
ROUTT COUNTIES UNTIL 10PM THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND WINDS
GREATER THAN 58 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.
PLEASE REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SWEPT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AHEAD OF PAIR OF WEAK DISTURBANCES
WHICH PASSED OVER THE AREA. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY AROUND
MIDDAY ...DAYTIME HEATING GENERATED ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. INGREDIENTS REMAINED IN
PLACE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH AND A STRONG CELL
HAD FORMED OVER THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS. WEAK DRYING AT MID-
LEVELS WILL BRING PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVELS DOWN A BIT SO EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
SUNSET. ECMWF/NAM/GFS ALL INDICATED POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OVER THE CENTRAL COLORADO
MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SEASONABLE.
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ADVECT INTO THE CWA FROM THE WEST
IN A WESTERLY FLOW ON WEDNESDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
DROPPING TO AROUND 0.5 INCHES. THERE ARE A FEW RIPPLES IN THE FLOW
AND ENOUGH MOISTURE ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF OUR CWA TO GENERATE
SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWER VALLEYS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY BUT THINKING
THE MODELS ARE WANTING TO DRY OUT THE ATMOSPHERE A LITTLE TOO
QUICKLY GIVEN THE INCREASED STORM ACTIVITY THIS MORNING WHEN MODELS
WERE TRENDING DRIER FOR THE MOST PART. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT WITH NO REAL FORCING TO KEEP THINGS GOING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOWLY WARMING TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO WANT TO DRY OUT THE ATMOSPHERE EVEN
FURTHER WITH PW VALUES DECREASING TO 0.4 INCHES WITH 0.5 LINGERING
ALONG THE DIVIDE. THE GFS INDICATES A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH
EMBEDDED VORT MAXES MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
GIVEN THE ADDITIONAL FORCING AND LINGERING MOISTURE AND THE THINKING
THAT MODELS ARE A BIT TOO QUICK IN DRYING THINGS OUT...BELIEVE THIS
WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. INCREASED POPS ON THURSDAY
AS A RESULT. LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO SUFFICIENT WITH VALUES APPROACHING
9.5 C/KM. SOME ISOLATED STORMS MAY DRIFT OR FORM OVER VALLEYS LATER
IN THE DAY GIVEN THE ADDITIONAL FORCING BUT VALLEYS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY FOR THE MOST PART. GIVEN THE DRIER LOW LEVELS...GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD
INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY FRIDAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SEEN. AN
ISOLATED STORM OR TWO MAY POP OVER THE SAN JUANS WHERE SOME MOISTURE
MAY LINGER...BUT THINK BY THIS POINT MOISTURE WILL BE MINIMAL. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OUT OF THE PACIFIC NW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES ON SATURDAY WITH THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THIS SYSTEM SKIMMING
THE EXTREME NORTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA AS THE JET DIPS SOUTH OF
THE CO-WY BORDER. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS UP
NORTH WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS BUT NOTHING MUCH ELSE AS THE BEST
MOISTURE AND FORCING REMAIN WELL NORTH OF OUR CWA.
THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
THIS WEEKEND AND REMAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MUCH DRIER AIR WITH PW VALUES LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES AND TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL VALUES WITH 7H TEMPS NEAR 20C FROM SAT
THRU TUES. MANY LOWER VALLEYS WILL SEE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH SOME
LOCATIONS, PARTICULARLY IN SE UTAH, SEEING TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT. NUDGED
MAX TEMPS UPWARDS IN THIS DIRECTION DURING THIS PERIOD AS BC
GUIDANCE STILL COMING IN A BIT TOO COOL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015
ACTIVE TSRA ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY OF KRIL-KEGE WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL 08Z-09Z PER HRRR MODEL. ONCE THIS ACTIVITY ENDS...THEN NO
TAF SITES SHOULD BE IMPACTED BY ANY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 06Z
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA MAY FORM EAST OF KEGE-KASE-
KGUC-KTEX BETWEEN 18Z-02Z.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CC
SHORT TERM...NL/MDA
LONG TERM....MDA
AVIATION...PF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1130 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015
...MORE STORMS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...
MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE STRONG STORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR. CURRENTLY...MODELS HAVE DONE A
REASONABLE JOB DEPICTING THE HEAVIEST STORM ACTIVITY OVER LAS
ANIMAS COUNTY AND SRN ZONES. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE HI
RES SOLUTIONS FOR THIS EVENING THOUGH...GIVEN POOR RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY AND DIFFERENCES BETWN THE MODELS. THE HRRR...FOR
EXAMPLE...HAS ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH
EL PASO AND PUEBLO COUNTIES LATE THIS EVENING...WHILE THE WRF
AND OTHER RUNS ARE DRY. THERE IS PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA...AND THERE IS AT LEAST SOME SIGN OF A TRAILING
SHORT WAVE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...MOVING INTO ERN UT AND WY
AT THIS TIME. SO...SUSPECT THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE WAVES
OF SCT CONVECTION THROUGH THIS EVE...ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF
HEAVY RAIN. AFTER 06Z...SHOULD SEE THINGS QUIET DOWN.
TOMORROW...ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED...BUT IT SHOULD BE A
BIT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WRN SECTIONS WILL LIKELY ONLY SEE ISOLD
ACTIVITY AS DRY AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN FROM THE W AND SW WED
AFTERNOON. BULK SHEARS WILL BE RUNNING 30-40 KTS...AND CAPE AT
1500-2500 J/KG OVER THE PLAINS...SO SVR WX WILL BE A THREAT
TOMORROW...PARTICULARLY OVER THE PALMER DVD AND FAR SERN PLAINS WHERE
THESE VALUES WILL BE GREATEST. IN FACT...CAPE IN THESE AREAS IS
HIGH ENOUGH THAT VERY LARGE HAIL COULD BE A CONCERN DEPENDING ON
THE CONVECTIVE MODE WED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE.
OTHER DILEMMA FOR TOMORROW WILL BE THE TEMPS. SO FAR TODAY...KPUB
HAS NOT GOT OUT OF THE LOWER 80S...WHILE GUIDANCE WAS IN THE LOW 90S
FOR TODAY. SO...NOT EXPECTING US TO GET INTO THE 90S TOMORROW EITHER.
UPPER 80S MAY EVEN BE GENEROUS FOR THE LOWER ARKANSAS VALLEY. UNTIL
WE DRY OUT LATE IN THE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND...GOING BELOW GUIDANCE
BY AT LEAST 5 DEGREES SEEMS THE BEST BET. ROSE
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015
WED NIGHT A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACRS THE AREA IN
THE NWRLY FLOW ALOFT...SPREADING SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM THE MTN
AREAS...ACRS THE SERN PLAINS. BY LATE NIGHT THE DISTURBANCE WL EXIT
THE STATE AND MOST...IF NOT ALL THE PCPN SHOULD END ACRS THE
FORECAST AREA. THU AN UPR RIDGE WL BE OVR THE AREA AND ALTHOUGH IT
SHOULD BE A LITTLE DRIER...THERE WL PROBABLY STILL BE SOME ISOLD TO
SCT PCPN CHANCES OVR THE AREA. THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL
ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO ERN OK ON THU. THE GFS HAS SERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW INTO SERN CO ON THU AND BRINGS WIDESPREAD PCPN THU NIGHT.
ON THE OTHER HAND...THE NAM ONLY HAS SOME ISOLD PCPN OVR THE SERN
PLAINS THU EVENING AND THEN DRY WX FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. THE
ECMWF IS ALSO MORE MOIST THAN THE NAM. FOR NOW...WL JUST KEEP SOME
ISOLD POPS OVR THE ERN PLAINS TO MATCH SURROUNDING FORECAST OFFICE
AREAS...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF
THE REMNANTS OF BILL. H7 TEMPS OVR THE AREA THU AFTERNOON SHOULD
RANGE FROM ABOUT 12C-19C WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S
ACRS THE SERN PLAINS...WITH MOSTLY 80S IN THE HIGH VALLEYS. THIS WL
RESULT IN CONTINUED HIGH ELEVATION SNOW MELT.
ON FRI THE UPR RIDGE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO BE OVR SRN CA WITH FAIRLY
LIGHT W TO NWRLY FLOW ALOFT...AND SOUTH TO SW FLOW LOW LEVEL FLOW
OVR THE SERN PLAINS. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM ARE QUITE DRY OVR THE
FORECAST AREA FOR FRI...WITH THE ECMWF HAVING A SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCE FOR SOME PCPN. WL KEEP THE MENTION OF SOME ISOLD POP OVR
SOME OF THE MTNS...BUT WL GO WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. H7
TEMPS ACRS THE AREA ON FRI ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM ABOUT 16C-
20C...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN ON THU. HIGH TEMPS WL MOSTLY BE IN THE
90S ACRS THE SERN PLAINS...WITH 80S IN THE HIGH VALLEYS.
SAT...A SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES FROM WY INTO THE PLAINS STATES...AND
SENDS A FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO SERN CO. THE UPR RIDGE CENTER IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE OVR SRN CA AND WRN AZ. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW
THE POTENTIAL FOR JUST SOME ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR SAT AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SO WL KEEP JUST SOME ISOLD POPS OVR SOME OF THE MTN
AREAS. H7 TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER ON SAT THAN
ON FRI AND THUS TEMPS WL AGAIN BE QUITE WARM ACRS THE FORECAST AREA.
ON SUN THE UPR HIGH CENTER SHIFTS TO NR THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION...KEEPING THE WEATHER MOSTLY DRY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPS. FOR MON AND TUE THE GFS HAS THE UPR HIGH CENTER OVR NM AND
THE TX PANHANDLE WHICH KEEPS OUR WX MAINLY DRY AND WARM. THE ECMWF
SHIFTS THE UPR HIGH CENTER EASTWARD AND BRINGS MSTR INTO THE AREA
AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPR RIDGE. FOR NOW...WL KEEP MOST OF THE
AREA DRY...WITH JUST SOME ISOLD POPS OVR THE MTNS AND WL CONTINUE
WITH THE ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015
HAVE INCLUDED A VCTS MENTION AT KPUB 06Z-08Z AS A FEW TSRA DRIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE ARKANSAS VALLEY. DIDN`T INCLUDE A MENTION AT
KCOS AS AIR MASS LOOKS SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE FARTHER NORTH...THOUGH
A FEW SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE 06Z-07Z. HRRR SUGGESTS CONVECTION
SHIFTS EAST TOWARD THE KS BORDER 08Z-10Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AT BOTH KPUB AND KCOS. AT
KALS...RAIN NEAR THE TERMINAL EARLIER TUE AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY
LEAVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOIST ENOUGH FOR SOME GROUND FOG AROUND
SUNRISE WED...WITH BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS 12Z-15Z. WILL INCLUDE A
VCTS ALL TAF SITES WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS TSRA FORM OVER THE
MOUNTAINS BY 18Z...THEN MOVE TO LOWER ELEVATIONS 20Z-21Z.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015
PER COORDINATION WITH LOCAL EM ACROSS OUR WRN
ZONES...WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING ACROSS LAKE AND
CHAFFEE COUNTIES THROUGH THIS EVENING. STREAM FLOWS ARE FALLING
ACROSS THIS AREA...BUT COULD STILL SEE SOME LOCAL FLASH FLOOD
CONCERNS DEPENDING ON THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING`S RAINFALL.
GIVEN THAT THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT ACROSS THESE ZONES SHOULD BE
WINDING DOWN AFTER THIS EVENING...PLAN IS TO ALLOW THESE
WATCHES TO RUN THEIR COURSE AND EXPIRE WHEN SCHEDULED. THERE
WILL STILL BE A LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT DEPENDING ON RAINFALL.
SNOWMELT WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO KEEP THE ARKANSAS FLOWING QUITE
STRONGLY IN THE NEAR TERM. AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS WILL BE REEVALUATED
FOLLOWING THIS LATEST ROUND OF STORMS...BUT SHOULD SEE THINGS
IMPROVE FROM A RAINFALL/QPF PERSPECTIVE BEGINNING TOMORROW. ROSE
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ058>063.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...PETERSEN
HYDROLOGY...ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
350 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
.DISCUSSION...
...LITTLE HEAT RELIEF NEXT FEW DAYS...
TODAY-TONIGHT...DEEP EASTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH DEEP
LAYER HIGH CENTERED TO OUR NORTH. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL
EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA SO THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
WILL PUSH INLAND A LITTLE FASTER IN THE SOUTH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND MODEL OUTPUT SHOW THAT CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL THE BOUNDARY IS WEST OF I-95. IN FACT...THERE IS NO
INDICATION OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTH COAST EITHER.
THE HRRR DOES SHOW SOME CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR (GFS HAS
LITTLE AND POPS ARE 10 PERCENT OR LESS). WILL GO WITH SMALL POPS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE RIDGE
POSITION SUGGESTS LATE DAY BOUNDARY COLLISIONS OCCURRING THERE.
WITH LITTLE CONVECTION EXPECTED AND OCCURRING LATE...MAX TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO NUDGE UP WITH SOME INTERIOR TEMPS REACHING 96-97
DEGREES AND HEAT INDICES IN THE LOW ONE HUNDREDS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 70S...EXCEPT MOS IS
INDICATING 77-78 DEGREES FROM METRO ORLANDO TO LAKE COUNTY (WHERE
THE HOTTEST DAYTIME READINGS OCCUR).
THU-FRI...LITTLE CHANGE OF DEEP LAYER RIDGE WITH HOT TEMPERATURES
PERSISTING. SFC RIDGE AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL FL WILL PRODUCE A LIGHT
S/SE FLOW WITH SEA BREEZE MOVING INLAND EACH DAY. THIS WILL LEAD
TO AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST TO MID
90S INLAND WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 100- 104 DEGREES. ISO/SCT
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MAINLY BE LIMITED TO THE
INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY BOUNDARY COLLISIONS NEAR TO WEST OF
I-4 LATE AFT AND TOWARDS SUNSET. CONVECTION WILL DECREASE INTO THE
LATE EVENING WITH RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY ENDING BY MIDNIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE LOW-MID 70S.
SAT-TUE...MODELS SHOW MID LEVEL S/W...REMNANTS FROM BILL...SHIFTING
EAST FROM CENTRAL U.S. TO MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE WEEKEND AND
OFFSHORE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS ACTS TO SLIGHTLY WEAKEN AND
SHIFT SOUTHWARD THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE. HOWEVER LITTLE CHANGE
IN WX PATTERN EXPECTED WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUING
AND SCATTERED AFT CONVECTION MAINLY LIMITED TO INLAND LOCATIONS
EACH DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR WITH LOW CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON STORMS AT THE
INTERIOR TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA
WILL PRODUCE A MOSTLY GENTLE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST BREEZE. THE SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL INCREASE SPEEDS ALONG THE COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON...THEN OFFSHORE IN THE NORTH THROUGH EVENING...BUT STILL
BELOW 15 KNOTS. SEAS 1-3 FEET. LITTLE SHOWER COVERAGE INDICATED.
THU-SUN...SFC RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A GENTLE S/SE BREEZE GENERALLY PERSISTING
OVER THE WATERS. EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP EACH AFT WITH
WINDS BECOMING E/SE NEAR THE COAST UP TO 10-13 KTS. SEAS WILL RANGE
FROM 1-3 FEET. THREAT FOR OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS REMAINS VERY LOW
AS AFT CONVECTION WILL MAINLY BE LIMITED TO INLAND LOCATIONS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 92 75 92 75 / 10 10 20 10
MCO 95 76 95 75 / 20 10 30 20
MLB 89 76 90 75 / 10 10 10 10
VRB 90 75 91 74 / 10 10 10 10
LEE 96 78 95 77 / 20 20 40 20
SFB 96 77 94 76 / 20 10 30 20
ORL 95 77 95 76 / 20 10 30 20
FPR 89 73 91 73 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LASCODY
LONG TERM....WEITLICH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1135 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
THE 01Z/8PM SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A SLIGHT MOVEMENT OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE NORTH INTO OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAINFALL SOUTH OF I-70, THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE WILL CAUSE SHOWERS TO OVERSPREAD AREAS SOUTH OF I-72
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE FRONT MAY REACH AS FAR NORTH AS I-74
BY 12Z. HRRR AND RAP OUTPUT INDICATE MOST OF THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS
AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN S OF I-72 IN THE SIDE OF
THE FRONT WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO 70F. THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE, BASED ON THE WETTING RAINS THIS
EVENING AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. CLOUD COVER WILL THICKEN NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT, KEEPING
LOWS ON THE MILD SIDE WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS. LIGHT FOG WILL
INCREASE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT WHERE WINDS BECOME LIGHT
LATER TONIGHT.
UPDATES THIS EVENING WERE DONE TO THE POP AND WEATHER GRIDS TO
SLOW DOWN THE NORTHWARD PUSH OF RAIN, WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
LOW TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS. UPDATED INFO IS ALREADY AVAILABLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
AFTERNOON SURFACE DATA SHOWS BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
IL. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...UNSTABLE AIR WITH MUCAPE OF
3000 CONTINUES TO FEED FROM MO AND TO THE SOUTH (AS SEEN IN THE
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY). MODELS MOVE THE PCPN NORTH AS THE FRONT
MOVES NORTH WITH THE APPROACHING ND UPPER WAVE. THE RESULT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCTION AND A CONTINUED FLASH FLOOD THREAT OVERNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
WET WEATHER AND POTENTIAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE IT STILL APPEARS
UNLIKELY THAT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A DRY DAY BEFORE
MONDAY, THERE ARE STILL PERIODS THAT APPEAR FAVORED FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD & HEAVIER RAINFALL, AS WELL AS VICE VERSA. THE BIGGEST
FLY IN THE OINTMENT REMAINS THE DISPOSITION OF THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL STORM BILL. THERE IS STILL A NOTABLE SPREAD IN THE
TIMING/TRACK OF THE SYSTEM, PRECIPITATION SPREAD AROUND THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION, AS WELL WITH INTRA-MODEL RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. THE
MOST NOTABLE MODEL TREND THAT IS AGREED UPON HAS BEEN FOR A SLOWER
ARRIVAL OF THE REMNANTS, WITH SOME OF THE SLOWEST SOLUTIONS (12
ECMWF FOR EXAMPLE) KEEPING THE ASSOCIATED RAIN THREAT AROUND WELL
INTO SATURDAY.
THE GENERALLY W-E ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STALLED OVER
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WILL LIFT BACK NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY PUSHING EAST
INTO THE PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BOOST SHOWER/STORM CHANCES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL THE WAVE PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN THE FORECAST ARE SHOULD SEE A RELATIVE LULL IN
THE RAIN THREAT, LIKE TODAY, UNTIL THE REMNANTS OF BOB APPROACH AND
EVENTUALLY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE BEST
FORCING AND RAINFALL THREAT WITH THE REMNANTS ARRIVING THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LIKELY ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
OF AROUND 2" OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL THE TROPICAL
REMNANTS DEPART SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ANYWHERE A
SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM GETS GOING AND/OR WHERE NUMEROUS RAIN
EVENTS OCCUR. ON THE UPSIDE, THE TROPICAL-LIKE AIRMASS AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK LAPSE RATE, AS WELL AS MODEST SHEAR PROFILES, ARE
NOT CONDUCIVE TO MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
ANOTHER BRIEF LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL FOLLOW THE
REMNANTS OF BILL UNTIL A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE
SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT, COOLER AND
LESS HUMID AIR WILL BE ABLE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA, LIKELY
RESULTING IN A DRY START TO THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
A SHORTWAVE ADVANCING FROM SOUTHERN MISSOURI ALONG THE FRONT
LIFTING NORTH FROM I-70 WILL TRIGGER MORE WIDESPREAD RAINS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS THE REST OF THE NIGHT. SPI ALREADY HAS STEADY
-RA, AND THOSE CONDITIONS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE
TERMINAL SITES TONIGHT. EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD AFFECT THE SOUTHERN TAFS OF SPI AND DEC. PONDING OF
WATER ON TRAVEL SURFACES COULD DEVELOP.
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR LATER TONIGHT, WITH LIFR
400FT STILL INDICATED FOR BMI. VIS MAY DIP TO IFR TOWARD SUNRISE,
IN LIGHTER WINDS AND HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS.
A BREAK IN THE RAINS IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE
WEDNESDAY MORNING. STORMS COULD REDEVELOP WED AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY ALONG ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION LATER
TONIGHT. WE KEPT VCTS WED MID AFTN TO EARLY EVE AS A RESULT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM EAST TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AS THE FRONT
PROGRESSES NORTH OF EACH TERMINAL SITE. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN LESS THAN 10KT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR ILZ052-054>057-
061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SHIMON
SHORT TERM...GOETSCH
LONG TERM...BAK
AVIATION...SHIMON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1150 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
PLEASANT DAY IN STORE ACROSS MOST OF THE DVN CWA WITH AN EAST
WIND BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA...COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS.
PRECIPITABLE WATERS WERE LESS THAN AN INCH AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS
WERE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. HOWEVER...IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES DEWS WERE IN THE MID 60S AND PWATS A BIT OVER AN INCH.
FARTHER SOUTH THE REALLY HIGH PWATS WERE LURKING WITH OVER 2 INCHES
AS YOU GET DOWN TOWARDS ST. LOUIS. TO THE NORTH DEWPOINTS WERE
ONLY IN THE 40S OVER PORTIONS OF MN EASTWARD TO MI.
3 PM TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S IN THE CWA
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...OUR FAR
SOUTH WAS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A LARGER CLOUD SHIELD THAT WAS
COVERING THE MID MS VALLEY. THIS WAS AHEAD OF LANDFALLING TROPICAL
STORM BILL IN SE TX.
MOSAIC MIDWEST RADAR LOOPS INDICATE A LINE OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...FROM SE KS TO
CENTRAL MO AND INTO SOUTHERN IL. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE SHORT TERM.
TONIGHT...DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO OUR NORTHEAST CWA
ON EAST WINDS WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 40S FOR A TIME
OVERNIGHT. IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA DEWS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 60S.
OPERATIONAL MODELS INCLUDING THE HI-RES MESO HRRR INDICATE WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT DEVELOPING IN OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AS A LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES
A BIT. THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH FORCING AND INSTABILITY TO ALLOW
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SO I WILL HAVE
HIGH END CHANCE POPS. DRIER AIR FARTHER NORTH SHOULD DISSIPATE ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY TRYING TO WORK NORTHWARD. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH AT MOST LOCATIONS IN
OUR FAR SOUTH. OUR FAR SOUTH COULD GET LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. CLOUD
COVER WILL PROGRESS NORTHWARD AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALSO SHIFTS
A BIT NORTHWARD. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S
IN FAR NW IL TO THE MID 60S FAR SOUTH.
WEDNESDAY...WEAK LOW LEVEL JET VEERS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND
OHIO VALLEY WITH THE FORCING GRADUALLY PUSHING AWAY FROM THE DVN
CWA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DRY DAY IN OUR NORTHERN CWA WITH
CHANCE POPS IN OUR FAR SOUTH CLOSER TO THE NEARLY STALLED FRONT
WELL TO OUR SOUTH. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE AREA REMAINS
HIGHLY VULNERABLE TO CONTINUED RIVER FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING DUE
TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST WEEK. FROM MID TO LATE
WEEK...THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL
MOVING INTO THE TX GULF COAST...WHICH MODEL CONSENSUS NOW HAS
CURVING NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THEN TRACKING E-NE
ACROSS CENTRAL MO INTO SOUTHERN IL FRI AND SAT...WHICH WOULD SPARE
THE FORECAST AREA FROM HEAVY RAINFALL.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA WED NIGHT WILL WARRANT LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT
QPF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS THEN LAYS OUT A BOUNDARY FROM
NORTHERN IL NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND RETURNING
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REQUIRE KEEPING AT LEAST LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE PASSING LOW THROUGHOUT. OVER THE REST OF THE
AREA...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES IS SHOWN SENDING A
BACKDOOR COOL FRONT AND A SURGE OF E-NE WINDS THU NIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING IN LOWER HUMIDITY AND THEN LIMIT HIGHS TO THE MID 70S TO
AROUND 80 FRI...AFTER ANOTHER DAY OF LOWER 80S THU.
SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...ONCE THE WEAKENING REMNANTS OF BILL
PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A PREFRONTAL STRONG W-SW
SURGE OF VERY WARM...MOIST AIR OUT AHEAD FEEDING INTO THE REGION.
THIS WILL BRING BACK HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND THETAE ADVECTION
ALOFT THAT MAY FUEL AN OVERNIGHT MCS WITH THE PASSING FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT...WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST ARE PLACED.
THIS WILL ALSO BE THE NEXT GREATEST THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH
SHOULD FOLLOW SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY WEATHER OR LOW PRECIPITATION
EVENTS THAT WILL ALLOW SURFACE CONDITIONS TO DRY SOME AND RIVERS TO
BEGIN RECEDING. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL FEATURE A NEARLY ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WITH THE REGION ALONG THE EDGE OF THE STRONGER WESTERLIES
WITH WARM AIR BUILDING OVER THE PLAINS AND AVAILABLE GULF MOISTURE.
THIS RING OF FIRE TYPE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT PERIODIC MCS ACTIVITY
OVER...OR POSSIBLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK ALONG WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
VFR CLOUD DECK...LOWERING TO MVFR INTO EARLY WED MORNING NORTH OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACRS MO. ALSO...ISOLATED TO SCTRD SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTH INTO WED MORNING...BUT DRY AIR ON EASTERLY LLVL
WINDS MAY LIMIT THE BETTER COVERAGE TO ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80.
SOME CHC FOR 3-5SM VSBY FOG AT BRL IN HIGHER SFC DPT POOL TOWARD
DAWN. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS BY WED AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM PUSHING ACRS MN INTO NORTHWESTERN IA...ALSO MOST CIGS
LIFTING TO VFR BY THEN AS WELL. ANOTHER CHC FOR SOME ISOLATED TO
SCTRD SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING IN TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
..12..
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
341 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
OUTFLOW FROM THE CONVECTION IN NORTHEAST COLORADO EARLY THIS EVENING
HAD PUSHED AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS SCOTT CITY BUT SEEMS TO HAVE LOST ITS
STEAM. SURFACE OBS AT NORTON AND PHILLIPSBURG SHOW AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THAT AREA. WOULD THINK THAT BY
SUNRISE, THIS BOUNDARY WILL HAVE PUSHED SOUTH INTO THE HAYS AREA.
THE SHORT TERM HRRR AND RAP MODELS SHOW THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHING
AS FAR SOUTH AS A HAYS TO HUGOTON LINE BY LATE MORNING BEFORE
STARTING TO WASH OUT AND RETREAT NORTHWARD. NOT SURE THAT WE WILL
SEE ANY CONVECTION FIRING IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY GIVEN THE
WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES BUT WILL LEAVE ANY CHANCES FROM THAT OUT
OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. IN RESPONSE TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SHORT
WAVE, THE MODELS HINT AT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OFF OF
THE NORTHEAST COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND MOVING POSSIBLY MOVING INTO
FAR WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING. THE GOING FORECAST HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS. ANY STORMS THAT MAKE IT INTO WESTERN KANSAS SHOULD
DIE LATER THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. WILL KEEP SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS DRY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE MODELS KEEP
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. BILL CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES TODAY ACROSS THE BOARD AS
WARMER THE COLUMN CONTINUES TO WARM AND DEEP MIXING IS EXPECTED
TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
ON THURSDAY, THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL WILL BE LOCATED
OVER NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA, WITH UPSLOPE, SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW OVER WESTERN KANSAS. WEAK NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER WESTERN KANSAS, COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID 60S, WEAK CAPPING AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY LEAD
TO LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY OVER FAR
WESTERN KANSAS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED WEAK UPPER LEVEL WINDS, THESE
STORMS MAY NOT BE SEVERE, BUT SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW, TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. ON FRIDAY, LEE
TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP A LITTLE MORE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS, BUT
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY WEAK AND GIVEN THE
LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, ANYTHING MORE THAN JUST AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS NOT EXPECTED. HIGHS OUGHT TO REACH INTO THE MID
90S ALONG THE COLORADO STATE LINE, WITH UPPER 80S IN CENTRAL
KANSAS. SATURDAY WILL BE A WARMER DAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PROGRESSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, ALONG WITH
SURFACE TROUGHING OVER WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN`T BE RULED OUT ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE
SURFACE TROUGH. HIGHS SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE MID 90S, WITH SOME
UPPER 90S ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. THERE
IS A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT OVER WESTERN KANSAS. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST
TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
WHERE A LOW TO MID LEVEL DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WILL EXIST. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S AND POSSIBLY NEAR 100 OVER WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS, WITH MAINLY MID 90S FARTHER SOUTHEAST. LOWS WILL ONLY BE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN THE
VARIOUS MODELS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY MID
TO LATE NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM A DYING CLUSTER OF STORMS IN NORTHWEST
KANSAS SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE HAYS AND GARDEN CITY TERMINALS EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A SWITCH IN THE WINDS TO A
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS SMALL CHANCE FOR MVFR VSBYS
TO DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING AT THE TAF SITES BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS
IS LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MENTIONING IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 87 64 87 65 / 10 10 10 10
GCK 88 62 89 65 / 10 20 10 20
EHA 89 63 92 64 / 10 30 20 20
LBL 88 63 88 64 / 10 10 10 10
HYS 89 64 87 65 / 10 10 10 10
P28 85 66 89 68 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...GERARD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
304 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS
WITH KANSAS SITTING UNDER THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STRONGER
WESTERLIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING EAST OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WAS LIKELY HELPING
SUSTAIN AN MCS AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND FAR
NORTHERN KANSAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS ALSO SHOWING THE HINT OF
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
EARLY THIS MORNING. A WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY 500 MILLIBAR TROUGH
CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED FROM OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS. THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL HAVE BEEN TRACKING
NORTHWARD THROUGH TEXAS OVERNIGHT JUST TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
OUTFLOW FROM THE CONVECTION IN NORTHEAST COLORADO EARLY THIS EVENING
HAD PUSHED AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS SCOTT CITY BUT SEEMS TO HAVE LOST ITS
STEAM. SURFACE OBS AT NORTON AND PHILLIPSBURG SHOW AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THAT AREA. WOULD THINK THAT BY
SUNRISE, THIS BOUNDARY WILL HAVE PUSHED SOUTH INTO THE HAYS AREA.
THE SHORT TERM HRRR AND RAP MODELS SHOW THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHING
AS FAR SOUTH AS A HAYS TO HUGOTON LINE BY LATE MORNING BEFORE
STARTING TO WASH OUT AND RETREAT NORTHWARD. NOT SURE THAT WE WILL
SEE ANY CONVECTION FIRING IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY GIVEN THE
WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES BUT WILL LEAVE ANY CHANCES FROM THAT OUT
OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. IN RESPONSE TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SHORT
WAVE, THE MODELS HINT AT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OFF OF
THE NORTHEAST COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND MOVING POSSIBLY MOVING INTO
FAR WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING. THE GOING FORECAST HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS. ANY STORMS THAT MAKE IT INTO WESTERN KANSAS SHOULD
DIE LATER THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. WILL KEEP SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS DRY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE MODELS KEEP
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. BILL CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES TODAY ACROSS THE BOARD AS
WARMER THE COLUMN CONTINUES TO WARM AND DEEP MIXING IS EXPECTED
TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
IMMEDIATE FORECAST CONCERN WAS WHAT TO DO WITH POPS IN THE TRANSITION
PERIOD BETWEEN THE SHORT AND LONG TERM FORECAST SECTIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DECIDED TO USE THE WRF-ARW AS A BASELINE FOR POP PLACEMENT. HAVE A FEELING
THAT CONVECTION WON`T MAKE IT THAT FAR EAST EXCEPT ACROSS EXTREME FAR
WEST KANSAS EXTENDING TO NORTHWEST KANSAS. REASON FOR THIS IS THAT
MUCH OF THE AREA IS IN A WEAKNESS IN STEERING WINDS BETWEEN SYNOPTIC
FLOW TO THE NORTH AND T.S. BILL. HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS MORTON TO
TREGO COUNTIES, AND THAT MIGHT BE A BIT AGGRESSIVE. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH,
THE NORMALLY WET NMM CORE IS DRY FOR THE REGION. WITH MODERATE CAPE
AND WEAK BULK SHEAR, SEVERE WEATHER IS PROBABLY NOT LIKELY, HOWEVER,
THE THERMO PROFILE WILL BE WELL MIXED, SO MARGINALLY SEVERE DOWNDRAFTS
AND SMALL HAIL COULD BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BETTER CHANCES ARE
THAT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST OR WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WITH A FROPA, SOME STORMS ARE POSSIBLE; HOWEVER,
MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER AND KEEPING MUCH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR TEMPERATURES, WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE AS 850-HPA TEMPS CLIMB THROUGH THE LONG TERM DOMAIN. WOULD
NOT RULE OUT MID TO UPPER 90S BY NEXT WEEK, WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH
ECE MOS GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM A DYING CLUSTER OF STORMS IN NORTHWEST
KANSAS SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE HAYS AND GARDEN CITY TERMINALS EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A SWITCH IN THE WINDS TO A
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS SMALL CHANCE FOR MVFR VSBYS
TO DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING AT THE TAF SITES BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS
IS LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MENTIONING IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 87 64 85 65 / 10 10 10 10
GCK 88 62 89 65 / 10 20 10 20
EHA 89 63 92 64 / 10 30 20 20
LBL 88 63 88 64 / 10 10 10 10
HYS 89 64 87 65 / 10 10 10 10
P28 85 66 89 68 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GERARD
SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...GERARD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
355 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY...WASHED OUT BOUNDARY
LYING OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH HIGH HUMIDITY AND MILD
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IS
LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTHWEST MOVING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT OF THE OHIO VALLEY...THOUGH DESTINED TO NEVER GET HERE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE SPAWNED OVER THE AREA DURING THE
DAY MONDAY THANKS IN PART TO THAT WEAK SFC BOUNDARY. WHILE THE
EASTERN PART OF THE STATE IS MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING...A
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL GOING STRONG OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION AND ACROSS THE BORDER INTO SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND ILLINOIS. LOCALLY...TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY UNIFORM
IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S ACROSS THE CWA WITH DEWPOINTS A
DEGREE OR SO LOWER IN MOST SPOTS WHILE WINDS ARE LIGHT. PATCHY
FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...IS NOTED AT JKL AND IN SOME OF THE WEB
CAMS...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT
AN ADVISORY OR SPS ATTM. BUILDING CLOUD COVER FROM THE NEARBY
FRONT AND STORMS TO THE WEST SHOULD HELP LIMIT ITS IMPACT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE PATTERN THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT THE SUB
TROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE OHIO RIVER BASICALLY
ITS NORTHERN EDGE. TO THE SOUTHWEST...THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES OF
FORMER TROPICAL STORM BILL ARE SHOWN MOVING FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS
TO THE OZARKS BY 00Z FRIDAY. ALONG THE TOP OF THE RIDGE A TRAIN
OF MINOR ENERGY WAVES WILL RIPPLE PAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THURSDAY
HELPING TO SUPPRESS THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE...WITH SOME
ASSISTANCE FROM BILL/S REMNANT CIRCULATION APPROACHING LATE IN
THE PERIOD. THIS FORECAST WILL BE DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE FEATURES...
THOUGH...SO HAVE FAVORED RADAR TRENDS AND THE LATEST HRRR FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST ALONG WITH THE HIGH RESOLUTION NAM12
FOR THE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY PORTIONS.
THE SAME INGREDIENTS THAT PRODUCED STORMS...A COUPLE OF WHICH WERE
SEVERE...YESTERDAY WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY AND THURSDAY TO FUEL
STORM DEVELOPMENT. THESE COMPONENTS ARE...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
IN THE AIR...PWS NEAR 2 INCHES...AND INSTABILITY WITH CAPES TO
3000 J/KG BY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...THE LAPSE RATES WILL BE A
BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
ACCORDINGLY...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR THE REST. ONE
FLY IN THE OINTMENT...THOUGH...WILL BE THE REMAINS OF THE ONGOING
STORMS TO THE WEST. THE HRRR TRIES TO TAKE THE CORE OF THESE OVER
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...BUT THAT PROGRESS IS IN DOUBT GIVEN RADAR
TRENDS AND THE NAM12 SOLUTION. WHAT DOES HAPPEN WITH THESE STORMS
WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT EFFECT ON OUR INSTABILITY LATER THIS
MORNING DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUN CAN GET IN HERE BEFORE THE
CLOUDS...OR REMAINING CONVECTIVE CELLS...FROM THE WEST MOVE INTO
THE JKL CWA. AT WORST...THIS COULD DELAY THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRONGER STORMS UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE THREAT
WILL CERTAINLY REMAIN. FOR THIS...WILL CONTINUE TO HIT IT IN THE
HWO AS WELL AS ADDING A HEADLINE TO THE WEB/PARTNER E-MAIL. THE
MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINS. THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIURNALLY WANE TONIGHT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AGAIN
ANTICIPATED IN THIS MUGGY ENVIRONMENT. ON THURSDAY...THE
CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS FAVORABLE FOR STORM FORMATION AS
THE FRONT LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WEAKENS A TAD. BOTH TODAY AND THURSDAY HIGHS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE IN THE LOW 90S...BUT CLOUDS AND CONVECTION WILL
LIMIT THE WORST OF THE HEAT...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN PARTS
OF THE CWA TODAY WHERE 85 DEGREES MAY BE A STRETCH.
ONCE AGAIN THE T/TD/WINDS GRIDS WERE STARTED OFF FROM THE
SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE
SUPERBLEND. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE IMPACT THAT THE CONVECTION WILL
HAVE ON THESE ELEMENTS CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL FOR THEIR
SPECIFICS. DID RAISE TEMPS A SMIDGEN ON THURSDAY WITH SLIGHTLY
LESS CONVECTION ANTICIPATED THAN TODAY. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP
CLOSEST TO THE HIGHER MET NUMBERS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM AS THE MAV APPEARS TO BE OVERLY DRY GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL OF THIS PATTERN AND PERHAPS THE COARSER RESOLUTION OF
ITS PARENT MODEL WHEN COMPARED TO THAT OF THE MET/S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
A VERY WET AND ACTIVE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD SEEMS TO BE ON TAP.
THE PERIOD BEGINS ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN OPEN SOUTHERLY FLOW IN
PLACE PUTTING EAST KENTUCKY IN A TROPICAL TYPE AIRMASS. HEADING INTO
FRIDAY...THE REMNANTS OF BILL SETS UP JUST TO THE WEST OVER THE MID
MS RIVER VALLEY POISED TO HEAD EAST UP THE OH VALLEY AND WITH IT...A
SUBSTANTIAL SHOT OF MOISTURE. THIS IS CONFIRMED WITH THE LATEST RUN
OF THE GFS AND EURO AND ALSO WITH THE SUPER BLEND. THE INFLUX OF
MOISTURE AND THE REMNANTS OF BILL...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BECOMING
AN OPEN WAVE...COUPLED WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE OH VALLEY
WILL BE A FOCUS FOR CONTINUED ROUNDS OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. PWATS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 1.75 TO 2.00
INCH RANGE.
BY MONDAY THE PATTERN TAKES ON A MORE DIURNAL DRIVEN MAX AND MIN
TIME FOR CONVECTION. MONDAY AND TUESDAYS ACTIVITY WILL DRIVEN BY A
COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE JET.
THESE WAVES WILL BRING A COUPLE OF WEAK COLD FRONTS THROUGH THE
AREA. HOWEVER...AS WELL...WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING INTO THE AREA...THIS PATTERN DOES FAVOR A
MCS TYPE PATTERN. AT THE SURFACE...THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
WARMER TEMPS WILL KEEP THE AREA IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS
AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S MAKING FOR A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS EACH DAY. CERTAINLY THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD RAISES A
CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND...POSSIBLY COMPLICATED
BY THE MCS PATTERN TO START THE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD DAWN SO HAVE INCLUDED
THIS IN THE SYM TAF. OTHERWISE...FOG WILL BE A THREAT FOR MUCH OF
EAST KENTUCKY INTO DAWN. HAVE ALLOWED FOR SOME MVFR VIS CONDITIONS
AT MOST SITES VIA A TEMPO GROUP EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT JKL WILL
SEE VARYING AMOUNT OF FOG...FREQUENTLY DENSE AND DOWN TO VLIFR.
LEFT THIS FOG AS PREVAILING...BUT DO ANTICIPATE TIMES OF BETTER
VIS. ALL THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z WITH STORMS AGAIN
DEVELOPING BY NOON FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. HAVE INCLUDED A VCTS FOR
THIS IN ALL THE TAFS...RUNNING IT THROUGH SUNSET. WINDS WILL PICK
UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT NEAR 10 KTS FOR THE
AFTERNOON...THEN DIE OFF AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
225 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DIED OUT OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
STATE...BUT ARE STILL GOING STRONG TO THE WEST. THE HRRR TAKES
THIS AREA...MOVES IT INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND WEAKENS IT.
BASED ON TRENDS AND THE LATEST NAM12 GUIDANCE HAVE SLOWED THIS
MOVEMENT DOWN BUT DO ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN POPS TOWARD DAWN
NORTH OF JKL. ALSO...TWEAKED THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST
SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE...OBS...AND TRENDS. AS FOR FOG...IT REMAINS
VARIABLE THROUGH THE AREA...BUT DID HIT IT HARDEST IN THE VALLEYS
THAT SAW RAIN EARLIER IN THE NIGHT AND YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. THESE
UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1028 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
QUICK UPDATE TO ALIGN TEMPS AND DEW POINTS WITH MOST RECENT OBS.
STILL ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA
TONIGHT...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THAT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 747 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
MOST OF THE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS HAVE WANED...LEAVING
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. AN ADDITIONAL SET OF
STORMS ARE CURRENTLY WEST OF OUR AREA BUT THESE SHOULD ALSO
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BEFORE MOVING INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY.
THE TRICKY PART OF THE FORECAST TONIGHT WILL BE THE FOG POTENTIAL.
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE SMALL IN MANY LOCATIONS...AND WITH MOST
LOCATIONS RECEIVING RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG
TO DEVELOP EARLY ON THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SO HAVE PUT IN AREAS OF FOG INTO THE ZONES THROUGH EARLY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMP GRIDS TO
ALIGN THEM BETTER WITH MOST RECENT OBS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD
AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND TARGET THE CENTER OF OUR
FORECAST AREA TODAY...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A DIFFUSE SURFACE FRONT
AND THE 850 MB JET. THE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AND OUTFLOWS
GENERATED FROM CURRENT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY FORCE ADDITIONAL
STORMS OVER THE UPPER CUMBERLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE
STILL MEAGER LAPSE RATES...A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL PULSE UP AND
COLLAPSE QUICKLY...PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE
WIND GUST WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE AFTERNOON STORMS WILL WANE AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING BUT CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A
STORM ANYWHERE DURING THE NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE FRONT
WILL SHIFT NORTH SOME AND THE MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF STORMS
SHOULD ALSO SHIFT NORTH OVER OUR MORE NORTHERN COUNTIES. SIMILAR
AIR MASS CHARACTERISTICS TOMORROW...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER LAPSE
RATES...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST WITH THE
STORMS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH TEMPS OR HUMIDITY DURING THE PERIOD.
IN FACT...MANY LOCATIONS WILL AGAIN HIT THE LOW 90S TOMORROW WITH
UPPER 80S UP NORTH WHERE MORE CLOUD COVER IS ANTICIPATED.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
WE WILL BE IN A FAVORED AREA FOR CONVECTION AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AT THE EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES ALOFT
AND WITH A TROPICAL AIR MASS IN PLACE. THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL
STORM BILL SHOULD BE TO OUR WEST...WITH MOISTURE POSSIBLY
STREAMING EASTWARD TOWARD KENTUCKY...WHICH COULD ALSO ENHANCE OUR
RAIN POTENTIAL. BILL IS EXPECTED TO DEGRADE TO AN OPEN WAVE ALOFT
ON SATURDAY AS IT PASSES BY. ITS INFLUENCE WILL RESULT IN OUR
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN AREA-WIDE ON SATURDAY. IN ITS WAKE...POPS WILL
DROP OFF ON SUNDAY. ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AN UPPER TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE NE CONUS WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR
WEST...RESULTING IN NW FLOW ALOFT FOR OUR AREA. A MOIST SURFACE
AIR MASS SHOULD PERSIST. THIS SUMMERTIME SCENARIO CAN FAVOR
CONVECTION AND SOMETIMES MCS OCCURRENCE...AND PRECIP WILL
CONTINUED TO BE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. THE ECMWF SHOWS A DYING
COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY...AND A SLIGHTLY
ENHANCED POP WAS USED THEN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD DAWN SO HAVE INCLUDED
THIS IN THE SYM TAF. OTHERWISE...FOG WILL BE A THREAT FOR MUCH OF
EAST KENTUCKY INTO DAWN. HAVE ALLOWED FOR SOME MVFR VIS CONDITIONS
AT MOST SITES VIA A TEMPO GROUP EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT JKL WILL
SEE VARYING AMOUNT OF FOG...FREQUENTLY DENSE AND DOWN TO VLIFR.
LEFT THIS FOG AS PREVAILING...BUT DO ANTICIPATE TIMES OF BETTER
VIS. ALL THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z WITH STORMS AGAIN
DEVELOPING BY NOON FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. HAVE INCLUDED A VCTS FOR
THIS IN ALL THE TAFS...RUNNING IT THROUGH SUNSET. WINDS WILL PICK
UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT NEAR 10 KTS FOR THE
AFTERNOON...THEN DIE OFF AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1145 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2015
.UPDATE:
Issued at 836 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2015
Went ahead and added Boone and Moniteau to the flash flood watch
as parts of these counties have received between 0.5 and 1 inch of
rainfall so far this evening. Theses two counties should see 2-4+
inches of rainfall over the next few days making flash flooding a
real possibility. Otherwise, going forecast looks on track through
tonight as showers and thunderstorms should continue. The latest
runs of the HRRR continues to show precipitation regenerating over
the central and southern part of the CWA through the night, albeit
with weakening reflectivity. The RAP continues to show strong low
level moisture convergence developing on the nose of a 30kt low
level jet over the CWA.
Britt
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2015
The warm and moisture rich air mass poised along and south of the front
has responded to diurnal heating with SBCAPES of 2000-3000 J/KG throughout
the warm sector, supporting the development of scattered to numerous
showers and thundrstorms. The 12z KSGF raob shows the moisture continuing
to deepen and increase with PW now at 2.01 inches with a tall skinny
CAPE profile, characteristics favorable for very efficient rainfall
production and high rainfall rates which has been observed with
some of the current storms. The models show the boundary lifting
northward tonight but I`m not all convinced of that solution given
the high pressure to our north across the upper MS Valley. Regardless,
several weak disturbances will track within the southwest flow
aloft across the region and that combined with a broad region of
lift and moisture convergence associated with the anticyclonically
curved and veering southwesterly LLJ will continue to support
waves of showers and thunderstorms tonight across mainly the
southern half of the CWA.
Glass
.LONG TERM: (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2015
Continued waves of showers and thunderstorms across the southern
half of the CWA and the remnants of TS Bill are expected through
the end of the week with potential for serious flooding, both flash
flooding on small creeks and streams and potential for major flood
levels of some of the larger rivers.
The overall situation has changed little leading to increasing
confidence. Still unknown will be the exact path of the remnant
tropical low. From Wednesday into Thursday a parade of disturbances
will track E/NE across the southern half of the CWA within the
southwest flow aloft on the periphery of the upper high in the
southeastern U.S.. At the same time the south-southwesterly LLJ
will modulate periodically veering and strengthening, focusing a
broad region of lift across the southern half of the CWA. The
combo of the these features will result in continued waves of
showers and thunderstorms with the high moisture content supporting
high rainfall rates and heavy rainfall totals. The models are also
suggestive of an arcing convergent zone across southern MO
emanating from the remnant low in the Thursday night-Friday time
frame which could further enhance the rainfall potential. The
current NHC official forecast has the low moving across south-
central and southeast MO into southern IL Friday into Friday
evening which appears to be in the center of the guidance suite.
It appears by Saturday morning the remnant low will have passed to
our east with drier weather expected until another cold front
enters the area late Saturday night into Sunday. Still thinking we
will see a swath of rainfall averaging 5-7 inches over the next 5
days centered near a Rolla-Waterloo-Salem axis, with the highest
rainfall period centered in the Thursday night-Friday time frame.
Local rainfall totals could be quite a bit higher. Have expanded
the Flash Flood Watch until 7 pm Friday evening as a result of
this anticipated scenario.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2015
First batch of rain has mainly settled south of the terminals
across southern Missouri and Illinois. A renewed threat of
convection and heavy rainfall will likely develop late tonight or
early Wednesday morning and affect the St. Louis Metro terminals.
Light wind will become southwest on Wednesday.
Specifics for KSTL:
Light rain should taper off in the next few hours, but
thunderstorms should redevelop around daybreak and continue
tomorrow morning and perhaps into the afternoon. Light wind will
become southwest on Wednesday.
CVKING
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday evening FOR Boone MO-Callaway
MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-
Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Moniteau MO-Montgomery
MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-St. Charles MO-St. Francois MO-St.
Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Warren MO-
Washington MO.
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday evening FOR Bond IL-Calhoun IL-
Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-
Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-Randolph IL-
St. Clair IL-Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
349 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
ALOFT: THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN OVER THE NRN USA
THRU DAWN TOMORROW...WITH A VERY LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE NRN
ROCKIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN WNW FLOW OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS.
SUBTROPICAL HIGHS WILL CONT OVER THE SW AND SE USA...WITH THE
REMNANTS OF BILL LIFTING N INTO OK.
SURFACE: THE POLAR FRONT WAS QUASI-STATIONARY ON THE SRN FRINGE
OF THE WESTERLIES AND EXTENDED FROM WY-NEB E INTO THE OH VALLEY.
THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY THRU TONIGHT...AND WILL BE
MODULATED/MODIFIED BY TSTM ACTIVITY.
NOW: THE REMNANTS OF A DECAYING MCS ARE MOVING THRU AT THIS TIME.
RAIN-COOLED OUTFLOW HAS OVERTAKEN THE ENTIRE FCST AREA. WE DID SEE
MULTIPLE GUSTS UP TO 43 MPH ACROSS FURNAS/HARLAN/FRANKLIN COUNTIES
12AM-2AM WHEN IT WAS MORE POTENT.
TODAY: DECREASING CLOUDS THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW
REGARDING TSTM REDEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO A LACK OF
SYNOPTIC FORCING.
THE 00Z 4KM WRF-NMM HAS AN EXCELLENT HANDLE ON WHAT IS GOING ON
NOW...IT`S JUST TOO SLOW BY 4 HRS. IT SUGGESTS THE BEST
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE S AND E OF THE FCST AREA...PROBABLY ALONG THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GENERATED BY THIS MORNING`S MCS. DEVELOPMENTS IN
THE RAIN- COOLED AIR OVER THE FCST AREA LOOK VERY
ISOLATED/MINIMAL...AND IF THERE IS NOT ENOUGH TSTM ACTIVITY TO
FORM A COMMON COLD POOL...WHAT LITTLE ACTIVITY FIRES SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. THE 06Z HRRR HAS A SIMILAR IDEA AT 21Z.
ENOUGH CLEARING TODAY SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY...
WITH MLCAPE 2000-2500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR 30-40 KTS...HIGHEST
OVER S-CNTRL NEB. LOW-LVL VEERING RESULTS IN 0-3 KM SRH OF 150
J/KG. THIS WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL CONVECTIVE MODE. SPC
HAS MOST OF THE FCST AREA OUTLOOKED IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR.
TONIGHT: IT ALL HINGES ON WHAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON. IF ONLY A
FEW ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE FCST AREA...THEY WILL
DIMINISH AND END MID-LATE EVE. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH DEVELOPMENTS
TO THE W. THE SIGNAL IS NOT GREAT...BUT CELL MERGERS COULD RESULT
IN AN MCS THAT COULD PROPAGATE INTO NEB. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW
GIVEN THE LACK OF MODEL QPF CLUSTERING AND LOW SREF QPF
PROBABILITIES.
GIVEN LOW FCST CONFIDENCE...POPS ARE NO HIGHER THAN 20% TODAY-
TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SUBTLE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING WILL BE NOTED
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE TO START THE LONG- TERM
FORECAST PERIOD AT 12Z THURSDAY...AND ALTHOUGH THIS RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST TO FINISH THE WEEK...THERE ARE ALSO
INDICATIONS OF ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS
DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SUBTLE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATION WILL
CLEAR THE AREA THURSDAY AND AS A RESULT...~20% POPS CONTINUE IN
THE FORECAST FOR THE MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
ALTHOUGH THIS PERTURBATION IS EXPECTED TO HAVE CLEARED OUR AREA BY
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THERE ALSO REMAIN INDICATIONS OF HIGH
PLAINS CONVECTION PERHAPS SUSTAINING ITSELF LONG ENOUGH TO IMPACT
FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY EVENING AND AS A
RESULT...~20% POPS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR FAR WEST 00-06Z FRIDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...THE FIRST UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA...THUS
ELIMINATING ANY APPRECIABLE OMEGA. THIS...AND THE PRESENCE OF A
HEALTHY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC CAPPING INVERSION EACH
AFTERNOON...RESULTS IN A POP-FREE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MORE INTO THE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY TIME PERIOD...ANOTHER ROUND OF MULTIPLE UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATIONS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FIRST
RIDGE COULD BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION AND AS A
RESULT...WENT AHEAD WITH 20-30% POPS ACROSS VARIOUS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST
NEXT TUESDAY AS THE SECOND UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA.
AS WAS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...RESPECTABLE BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE
...ALONG WITH VARYING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PERTURBATIONS...WILL PROMOTE VARYING
LEVELS OF POTENTIAL ENERGY FROM DAY TO DAY DURING THE LONG-TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING...ENERGY LEVELS
GENERALLY RANGING FROM 1000-2000J/KG ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED. GIVEN
THIS...WILL CONTINUE MENTIONING THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE HWO FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
EVENING. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AIR MASS EARLY
NEXT WEEK SUGGESTS STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER COULD RESULT SHOULD
CONVECTION DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL...BUT AT THIS TIME IT
IS TOO EARLY TO INTRODUCE ANY MENTION OF SEVERE WEATHER THAT FAR
INTO THE FUTURE.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS WILL PROMOTE WARM
WEATHER DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 80S AND 90S AND LOWS IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S. AT
THIS TIME THE WARMEST DAY APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
LIKELY CLIMBING INTO THE 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWA AND
PERHAPS NEARING THE CENTURY MARK ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
THESE TEMPERATURE READINGS...IF REALIZED...WOULD HELP PROMOTE HEAT
INDEX READINGS OF 100-102 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. NOT YET
READY TO INTRODUCE HEAT WORDING IN THE HWO FOR THIS WEEKEND...BUT
THIS MAY BE SOMETHING TO CONSIDER IN THE COMING DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WED NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
REST OF THE NIGHT: VFR COULD TEMPORARILY DECAY TO MVFR OR IFR
TSTMS. THEREAFTER...MULTI-LAYERED VFR CLOUD DEBRIS. VRB WINDS AS
THESE STORMS OR THEIR REMNANTS MOVE THRU. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
WED: VFR. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARBY AND SCT POCKETS
OF MVFR/IFR TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP. WINDS OUTSIDE TSTMS WILL BE E-SE
UNDER 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: LOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH TSTMS.
WED EVE: PROBABLY VFR...OUTSIDE OF SCT MVFR/IFR TSTMS. E-ESE WINDS
UNDER 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: LOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH TSTMS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1246 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES WITH A THERMAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
OF NORTH CAROLINA. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN DISSIPATE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM WEDNESDAY...MCS HAS WEAKENED AND MOVE OFF OF THE
NORTHEAST NC COAST LATE TONIGHT. RADAR IS DETECTING WHAT LOOKS TO
BE THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FROM NORTHERN LENOIR COUNTY EAST TO THE
OUTER BANKS NEAR SALVO MOVING SOUTH. NOT SEEING ANY PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY AND A QUICK PEAK AT 00Z NAM
AND THE HRRR AND RAP-13 MODELS INDICATE DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT SO
WILL REMOVE POPS FROM THE FORECAST. THE FLOW SHIFTS TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY
OVERNIGHT AS WE ARE NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT COOLING BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY WITH MIN TEMPS MAINLY 75-80 AGAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SFC FRONTAL
BNDRY WILL PUSH THROUGH MOST OF AREA DURING MORNING...STALLING
NEAR SRN SECTIONS DURING AFTN. SOME WEAK CAA WILL BE FELT BEHIND
FRONT MAINLY OVER NE SECTIONS...WITH NRN OBX HELD TO MID 80S WITH
NE WINDS MOST OF DAY. LOW LVL THICKNESSES WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER
OVER REST OF AREA...SUPPORTING MAX TEMPS MAINLY MID 90S SW HALF OF
AREA. APPARENT TEMPS WILL BE HELD TO 98-102 FOR MOST OF AREA AND
DO NOT PLAN TO POST HEAT ADVISORY FOR WED.
WITH FRONTAL BNDRY STALLING OVER SRN SECTIONS...SOME CONVERGENCE
WITH SEA BREEZE LIKELY AND COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A TRIGGER FOR
SCT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...AND CONTINUED PREVIOUS FCST 20/30 POPS
ALL BUT OBX.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 PM TUESDAY...A PERSISTENT SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS
ANCHORED ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE PIEDMONT THERMAL
TROUGH RE-ESTABLISHES WEST OF THE AREA THURSDAY WITH A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST, CREATING A WEAK
LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE AREA CENTERED OVER EASTERN NC WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER,
MODELS ARE NOT INITIATING CONVECTION UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
WHEN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IMPROVES WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/MID ATLANTIC. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE
POPS INLAND TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG/OFF THE COAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE MID 90S INLAND TO
85-90 ALONG THE COAST.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SLIGHT DIFFERENCES CONTINUE IN
THE 12Z GUIDANCE LATE IN THE WEEK, MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH HOW
THEY HANDLE THE MOISTURE PLUME FROM TROPICAL STORM BILL CURRENTLY
MAKING LANDFALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST. CURRENT GUIDANCE
KEEPS THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THOUGH
THE UPPER RIDGE BECOMES SHUNTED SOUTHEAST SLIGHTLY OFF THE FL
COAST BY SATURDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS SUGGEST A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO EASTERN NC FRIDAY, THOUGH
BEST UPPER SUPPORT/FORCING REMAIN IN CENTRAL VA, WITH THE FRONT
WASHING OUT OVER THE REGION SATURDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AGAIN
ENSUES OVER EASTERN NC. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MAINLY
DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF KEEP 850MB TEMPS AROUND 20 DEGREES WITH LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES AROUND 1425-1440M SO THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE AND EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S INLAND WITH 85-90 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE REMNANTS OF TS BILL LIFT WELL NORTH
OF THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW BRIEFLY DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS ARE WEAKER WITH A UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY
DIGGING INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY THE CAROLINAS
THOUGH THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL DROP
THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. CONTINUE DIURNALLY
ENHANCED CONVECTION WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH 850MB TEMPS REMAINING
AROUND 20 DEGREES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING HIGHS IN THE 90S INLAND
AND MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST. ONLY SLIGHT COOLING FOR
TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S INLAND AND
MID 80S ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM WEDNESDAY...CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY
FOG/LOW CLOUDS BEHIND IT TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR BRIEF SUB
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP. LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE NAM GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 450 PM TUES...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TAF SITES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
ISOLATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN MAINLY DIURNAL STORMS POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON. PRE- DAWN STRATUS AND/OR FOG MAY PRODUCE SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE
PRECIPITATION.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM WEDNESDAY...WSW WINDS 5-15 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
LATE THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT NORTH 10 TO 15 KT BEHIND THE
SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER
THE SRN WATERS WED AFTN...WITH WINDS BECOMING E-SE THERE AS SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS. SEAS BUILD TO 2-4 FT OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING ON
WED.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 450 PM TUES...THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
FLOW BECOMING SOUTHERLY THEN SOUTHWESTERLY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT
WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA AND STALLS FRIDAY BRINGING LIGHTER
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION, MAINLY 15 KT OR LESS. THIS FRONT
DISSIPATES BY SATURDAY WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURNING AND
INCREASING TO 15-20 KT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND SOME MODELS
ARE EVEN AS STRONG AS 25 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
WATERS. SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 4 FEET ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY, HOWEVER SEAS MAY BRIEFLY BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET
THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
SEAS BUILD AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND COULD SEE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOP.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JME/BTC/JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...SK/DAG
AVIATION...JME/SK/DAG
MARINE...JME/BTC/JBM/SK/DAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1227 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED FOG ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WITH THIS UPDATE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION
ARE NOT SHOWING ANY FOG EXCEPT A VERY FEW STATIONS. AT THIS TIME
IT APPEARS CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER WITH PERHAPS SOME
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 925 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
FOR THIS UPDATE...TRIMMED BACK CLOUD COVER IN THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS. HRRR MODEL OUTPUT SEEMS
TO AGREE WITH THIS PROGRESSION AND USED IT AS GUIDANCE FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. ALSO DECREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST
AS MOST OF THE SHOWERS HAVE EITHER MOVED OUT OF THE AREA OR
DISSIPATED. THE ONLY OTHER CHANGE THAT WAS MADE WAS TO DELAY THE
ONSET OF HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. TRIMMED PRECIP CHANCES IN THE EAST BASED
ON RADAR TRENDS AND TOOK THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE ONGOING
SHOWERS IN THE NEAR TERM...CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT...THEN CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY.
CURRENTLY...QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT REMAINS WITH AN EMBEDDED S/WV
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA WITH A SFC RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. AREA OF
MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE SOUTHWEST NOW
MAINLY DRY. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE FROM WEST TO EAST THOUGH THE
DAY WITH PRECIP ENDING AT KBIS MOMENTARILY...AND THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY THIS EVENING. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTHWEST...ALTHOUGH THIS IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY THE LONGER
STRATUS REMAINS IN PLACE.
EMBEDDED WAVE EXITS OFF TO OUR EAST LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS ALL OF WEST AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ALL MODELS INDICATING STRATUS FIELD
EXPANDING ACROSS MOST IF NOT ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AFTER 00Z...SO SKY COVER WAS KEPT ELEVATED TONIGHT WHICH
WILL IN TURN KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY MODERATE IN THE UPPER
40S/LOW 50S. WITH HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE AND WITH
RECENT MODERATE RAINFALL...FOG IS FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY THE
STRATUS/DEVELOP FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
WHERE THE RAIN FELL. HIGH RES MODELS INDICATING POSSIBLE DENSE FOG
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...SO
THIS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE HEADLINES.
STRATUS AND FOG BURN OFF MOST AREAS 12-15Z TOMORROW
MORNING...LINGERING ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND JAMES
RIVER VALLEY TILL LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
STRONG MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
CANADA WILL PUSH A SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHEAST INTO
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
MUCAPE WILL ACCOMPANY THE FROPA SO WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AN ACTIVE
QUASI-ZONAL PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT EVERY
18 TO 36 HOURS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSES MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
STATE. LIMITED CAPE WITH THE NAM DEPICTING 100-500 J/KG AND THE GFS
ZERO.
THURSDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH
LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. INSTABILITY INCREASES IN THE
WEST WITH TIME DURING THE DAY AS THE NEXT STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WAVE MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WIND SHEAR INCREASES
WITH SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE TO H850 WINDS AND SOUTHWESTERLY H700
WINDS...BUT THE BEST CAPE REMAINS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE STATE.
STILL...COULD BE STRONG STORMS IN THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY NIGHT YET ANOTHER STRONGER SET OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WAVES
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE STATE. HAVE HIGH CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WIND SHEAR INCREASES FURTHER WITH
OVER 60 KNOTS OF SHEAR - SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS...A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WITH SOUTHERLY H850 WINDS AT 30-
45 KNOTS AND SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY H700 WINDS. THE LIMITING FACTOR
FOR SEVERE STORMS IS MOST UNSTABLE CAPE...WITH VALUES REACHING 1000
J/KG OVER SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...BUT MUCH
STRONGER VALUES FARTHER SOUTH. STILL...COULD BE SOME STRONG STORMS
SOUTHWEST AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL.
FRIDAY IS WHEN THE STRONG/HIGH CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES COINCIDE OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL JET
MOVES/DEVELOPS INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THE STRONGEST STORMS FOR
OUR AREA MAY BE THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON
FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY EVENING THE LOW LEVEL JET IS INTO
MINNESOTA...HOWEVER THE NEXT ROUND OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSES
MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY STRONG...FRIDAY NIGHT FOR WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST NEARLY
EACH PERIOD SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED EAST LEAVING BEHIND LOW CEILINGS FOR
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. IT APPEARS THAT ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE PATCHY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
CEILINGS LOWERING INTO THE IFR AND EVEN LIFR RANGE AT
KDIK...KBIS...AND KJMS. THE EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS ENDS RIGHT
ALONG SITES KMOT AND KISN...THESE SITES MAY GO IN AND OUT OF MVFR
AND IFR CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE LOW CLOUDS
LIFT AND PUSH EAST.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MM
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...MM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
445 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTH LIFTS BACK NORTH WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM
BILL REMNANTS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
00Z NAM NOT HANDLING THE WAVE COMING OUT OF THE MIDWEST VERY
WELL...SO RELIED MORE ON THE HRRR FOR POPS TODAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL SLOWLY RETURN NORTHWARD
TODAY. AM A BIT CONCERNED WITH POTENTIAL FOR WATER PROBLEMS...BUT
THE MORNING ARRIVAL OF THE FIRST WAVE WILL LIMIT HEATING.
ALSO...MUCH OF THE NORTHERN COUNTIES HAD A BREAK FROM HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS
SITUATION HOWEVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH STILL OVER THE SOUTHEAST US PLENTY OF
SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE HIGH ACROSS WEST
VIRGINIA. THIS WILL MEAN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
OCCUR WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS. EVEN WITH DECENT MODEL
AGREEMENT TIMING EACH FEATURE IS VERY DIFFICULT SO WENT WITH MORE OF
A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH.
WITH SUCH A TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE AND WHAT WILL ESSENTIALLY BE A
WEEK OF HIGH PWS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA EACH DAY BRINGS ON MORE OF A CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO. AT SOME POINT IN TIME A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS ON THURSDAY
FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT
RISK FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY.
THE LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BOB WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THE CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES WITH THIS. IN
ADDITION THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT POSSIBLE WIND GUSTS FOR THE
MOUNTAINS. WITH SUCH SATURATED SOILS THIS COULD CAUSE SOME TREES TO
FALL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE REMNANTS OF WHAT WAS TROPICAL STORM BILL SHOULD BE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE START OF THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP
SKIES CLOUDY AND RAIN CHANGES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
START OF THE NEXT WEEK. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
PERIOD AS CONTINUED RAINFALL IS LIKELY IN THE PATH OF THIS SYSTEM.
THIS IS LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WILL MAKE SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR TIMING. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT HAS STALLED ACROSS NORTHERN WV AND SOUTHEAST OHIO. THIS
HAS LEFT ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. ALL THIS MOISTURE MEANS
THAT CLOUDS COULD FORM AT MOST ANY LEVEL...AND ANY CLEARING COULD
MEAN INSTANT FOG. THIS LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THIS
MORNING. TO COMPLICATE MATTERS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT...BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS BEFORE DAWN.
THE STRATUS DECK SHOULD GRADUALLY RAISE INTO A CUMULUS DECK DURING
THE DAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FORMING DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HEIGHT OF A STRATUS DECK THIS MORNING COULD
VARY CONSIDERABLY. ANY HOLES IN THE CLOUDS COULD ALLOW FOR
VISIBILITIES TO DROP DUE TO FOG. DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AIRMASS...SPECIFIC TIMING AND INTENSITY ARE
NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS.
.AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF MORNING FOG WILL DEPENDS OF LOCATIONS THAT
GET RAIN AND CAN CLEAR OUT AT NIGHT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/RPY/JMV
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...FB
LONG TERM...JSH/JMV
AVIATION...RPY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
948 AM MDT WED JUN 17 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 905 AM MDT WED JUN 17 2015
NOT MUCH TO ADJUST IN THE SHORT TERM. LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS TO
TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. STILL SUFFICIENT CAPE/SHEAR FOR A SEVERE TSTM OR
TWO THIS AFTN/EVNG...LATEST RUC13 SOUNDINGS GENERATE 1000-1500
J/KG. BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETENTION WILL BE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF DENVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT WED JUN 16 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL COLORADO WITH CONTINUED ASSOCIATED SHOWERS OVER SUMMIT AND
PARK COUNTIES. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EAST THIS MORNING EXPECT SOME
DRYING OVER MOUNTAINS AND FRONT RANGE. OVERALL MOISTURE LEVELS
WILL BE LOWER TODAY AS INTEGRATED PW VALUES HAVE DROPPED A COUPLE
TENTHS IN THE PAST 24 HOURS OVER THE FRONT RANGE. THERE WAS SOME
FOG POTENTIAL AS INDICATED BY NAM AND LESSER EXTENT THE RAP BUT
APPEARS NAM WAS WAY OVERDONE WITH MOISTURE THIS AM AS DEWPOINTS
ARE SUPPOSED TO BE IN THE LOWER 60S NOW AND THROUGH THE DAY.
EXTENSIVE MID/HI CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF METAR PLOTS TONIGHT
RESULTING IN HARD TIME SEEING IF THERE IS ANY FOG/STRATUS ON THE
PLAINS. NON-NWS SURFACE PLOTS INDICATE THERE IS ENOUGH T/TD
SPREADS THAT WON`T SEE MUCH FOG THIS AM AND WON`T INCLUDE IN ZONES.
WITH OVERZEALOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM NAM WILL DISCOUNT THAT
MODEL AS IT INDICATED UP TO 3000J/KG OF CAPE. RAP SEEMED BETTER
WITH 700-1500J/KG BASED ON DEWPOINTS FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S
ON THE PLAINS WHICH LOOKS MORE REASONABLE. EVEN LATEST HRRR ONLY
HAS ISOLATED COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF PALMER
DIVIDE AND CYS RIDGE. ALSO AREA WILL BE UNDER WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. WILL LOWER POPS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING TO MAINLY ISOLATED COVERAGE HIGHEST CHANCES
REMAINING ON EAST SLOPES AND HIGHER TERRAIN.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT WED JUN 16 2015
DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS STILL ON TRACK THURSDAY AND BEYOND
WITH A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR WEST. NOT UNCOMMON FOR
A STRONG... NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER RIDGE/HEAT DOME TO ENVELOP
COLORADO AND THE SOUTHWEST U.S. DURING THE LATTER HALF OF JUNE
PRIOR TO THE UNSET OF THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON. LATEST MOS
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE INDICATES A STRING OF 90 PLUS DEGREE DAYS
FOR THE PLAINS BEGINNING THURSDAY. WARMEST AIR ALOFT COINCIDENT
WITH THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS OVER THE FCST AREA ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...EQUATING TO HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS BOTH DAYS. DO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER TO
GET IN THE WAY. ALTHOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT A STRAY GUSTY HIGH BASED
T-STORM OR TWO OVR AND NEAR THE FRONT RANGE WITH ALL OF THE SOIL
MOISTURE AROUND AND STEEP AFTERNOON LAPSE RATES. SEE THIS MAINLY
HAPPENING ON FRIDAY.
SUNDAY...MAY BE EVEN WARMER WITH A 596 DECAMETER RIDGE SQUARELY
OVER COLORADO. HOWEVER A COUPLE OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL
SHOW A WEAK MID-LEVEL PERTABATION ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
AND BRUSHING THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF COLORADO LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. AROUND THE SAME TIME THEY ALSO SHOW A
WEAK COLD FRONT OR SFC TROUGH BACKING INTO THE NERN CORNER OF THE
STATE ON MOIST EAST-SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW. ITS POSSIBLE A FEW
T-STORMS COULD FIRE ALONG THIS SFC BNDRY/THETA-E AXIS AS THE UPPER
AIR FEATURE PASSING BY. OTHERWISE SUNDAY LOOKS DRY AND QUITE WARM
FOR THE REST OF THE CWA. GOOD DAY FOR A BBQ.
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SEE LITTLE IN THE WAY CHANGE WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE KEEPING ITS GRIP ON THE CENTRAL CONUS. THAT MEANS
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AND PRECIP CHANCES NEAR ZERO BOTH
DAYS. HOWEVER...THE 00Z EUROPEAN MODEL INDICATES THE START OF A
WETTER PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR TUESDAY. IT SHOWS THE CORE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE QUICKLY SHIFTING WELL EAST OF COLORADO ON TUESDAY
WHICH OPENS THE ROCKY MTN REGION TO A MOIST SOUTHERLY TROPICAL
FLOW. LOOKS RATHER MONSOONISH. THE WAY THIS YEAR HAS BEEN GOING
WITH EL NINO STRENGTHENING IN THE PACIFIC...FEEL THE NEED TO
INTRODUCE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF T-STORMS MAINLY FOR THE
HIGH COUNTRY LATE TUESDAY AND LOWER TEMPS BY A DEG OR TWO FROM
THOSE EXPECTED THE DAY BEFORE TO ACCOUNT FOR A POSSIBLE INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 905 AM MDT WED JUN 17 2015
VFR CIGS/VSBYS TODAY. LGT AND VRB WINDS THIS MORNING...BECOMING
E/SELY THIS AFTN...THEN BACK TO DRAINAGE BY LATE EVENING. VCTS
WILL SUFFICE IN THE TAFS LATE AFTN/ERLY EVENING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT WED JUN 16 2015
A BIT DRIER AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE OF
STORMS TODAY WHILE STORMS WILL BE MOVING AT A DECENT CLIP WILL
RESULT IN LOW CHANCES FOR FLASH FLOODING TODAY. NO CHANGES TO
CURRENT FLOOD WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...COOPER
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...COOPER
HYDROLOGY...ENTREKIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
1128 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES INTO THE WEEKEND WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN WEAKEN OVER THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE RETURNING BY MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONGOING FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND ONLY SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS
MADE WITH THE LATE MORNING UPDATE.
IT WILL BE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY FOR THE REGION AS AN
ANONYMOUSLY STRONG...DEEP LAYERED RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE CORE OF THE HOTTEST 850 HPA TEMPERATURES
THAT HAVE BEEN SITTING OVER THE PEE DEE AND THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN OF NORTH CAROLINA FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL SINK SOUTH
THIS MORNING AND BE POSITIONED OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO HIGHS 100-102 INLAND WITH MID-UPPER 90S JUST INLAND
FROM THE BEACHES AS 850 HPA TEMPERATURES WARM TO 22C. HIGHS
CERTAINLY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH 100 DEGREES AT KSAV AND KCHS
FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR WHICH WOULD BE NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR
THE DATE...BUT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL
TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION THAT FIRES TODAY.
DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX OUT IN THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 THEN
POOL IN THE MID-UPPER 70S ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES MID-LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE RESULTANT SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND. THIS WILL
PRODUCE MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES OF 105-110 INLAND AND UPWARDS OF 112
JUST INLAND FROM THE BEACHES FOR SEVERAL HOURS--HOTTEST IN THE
BEAUFORT-DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON-AWENDAW CORRIDOR WHERE THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT DEWPOINT POOLING WILL OCCUR ALONG THE RESULTANT. A
HEAT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN FORCE FOR ALL AREAS THROUGH 7PM.
DESPITE THE WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND LARGE SUBSIDENCE
NOTED ON VARIOUS FORECAST SOUNDINGS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SEA BREEZE
DURING PEAK HEATING. THE HRRR AND NSSL-WRF ARE BOTH AGGRESSIVE IN
DEVELOPING THE CONVECTION DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT THIS
SEEMS A BIT TOO EARLY FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION BASED ON THE
TIMING THAT HAS OCCURRED THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. THEREFORE THE
FORECAST SHOWS 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES OF RAINFALL AFTER 3 PM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL END QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF INSOLATION. LINGERING CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE YIELDING
CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. FULL DECOUPLING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER APPEARS UNLIKELY...EXCEPT MAYBE ACROSS FAR INLAND
AREAS...SO EXPECT ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 70S INLAND TO THE LOWER 80S AT THE BEACHES. THE
RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS COULD BE CHALLENGED AT KCHS AND KCXM WHILE
THE RECORD AT KSAV LOOKS SAFE.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WHILE A WESTERLY FLOW OCCURS ALOFT. AS A RESULT...VERY WARM
CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE AS STRONG SFC HEATING OCCURS UNDER
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. BY SATURDAY...THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL
GRADUALLY RETREAT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IN RESPONSE TO LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
THE MAIN ISSUE WILL CONTINUE TO BE HOT AND FAIRLY HUMID CONDITIONS
PRODUCING HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 DEGREES DURING PEAK HEATING
HOURS...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON SFC DEWPTS...WHICH WILL LIKELY MIX OUT
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DURING PEAK HEATING EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE BEHIND AN INLAND MOVING SEABREEZE DURING
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. BY SATURDAY...HEAT INDEX VALUES
COULD FALL JUST SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA DUE TO SLIGHTLY MORE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND CLOUD COVER.
1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE 100
DEGREES AWAY FROM THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON...BUT THE INCREASING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD LIMIT FULL HEATING POTENTIAL
A FEW DEGREES. HAVE THEREFORE MAINTAINED HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER
90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN MID 90S ON SATURDAY. LOW
TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD EACH NIGHT...IN THE MID/UPPER 70S AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE MID LVL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST
WILL GRADUALLY RETREAT OFFSHORE IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
EASTWARD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. A LOW AMPLITUDE MID LVL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW THE SFC LOW...BUT WILL DO
LITTLE TO STOP ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE FROM REBUILDING OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY MIDWEEK. AS A RESULT...THE PATTERN
WILL SUPPORT MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND
TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME...HAVE MAINTAINED
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S EACH AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE MILD...IN THE MID/UPPER 70S AWAY FROM THE COASTLINE.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING AFTERNOON SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BEGINNING ON FRIDAY
AND LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL HOLD 10-15 KT WITH SEAS 1-3 FT.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
COASTAL WATERS INTO THE WEEKEND. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
GENERALLY PEAK AROUND 15 KTS NEAR AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS
AND DURING NOCTURNAL SURGES THROUGH SATURDAY. A GRADUAL ENHANCEMENT
TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS THEN ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. AS A RESULT...15-20 KT
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY BEYOND 10 NM FROM THE COAST. SEAS
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1-3 FT THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN GRADUALLY BUILD TO
2-4 FT HIGHEST BEYOND 10 NM FROM THE COAST.
RIP CURRENTS...EAST/SOUTHEAST SWELL OF 9-10 SECONDS COMBINED WITH
ONSHORE WINDS OF 10-15 KT WILL SUPPORT A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS AT ALL BEACHES TODAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS JUNE 17TH...
KCHS...77 SET IN 1991.
KCXM...82 SET IN 1998.
KSAV...78 SET IN 1886.
RECORDS FOR JUNE 17TH...
KCHS...101 SET IN 1981.
KCXM...100 SET IN 1921.
KSAV...101 SET IN 1944.
RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR JUNE 18TH...
KCHS...75 SET IN 1985.
KCXM...81 SET IN 1998.
KSAV...79 SET IN 1944.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ087-088-
099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ040-042>045-
047>052.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...JAQ/ST
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...ST/DPB
MARINE...ST/DPB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
704 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
OUTFLOW FROM THE CONVECTION IN NORTHEAST COLORADO EARLY THIS EVENING
HAD PUSHED AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS SCOTT CITY BUT SEEMS TO HAVE LOST ITS
STEAM. SURFACE OBS AT NORTON AND PHILLIPSBURG SHOW AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THAT AREA. WOULD THINK THAT BY
SUNRISE, THIS BOUNDARY WILL HAVE PUSHED SOUTH INTO THE HAYS AREA.
THE SHORT TERM HRRR AND RAP MODELS SHOW THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHING
AS FAR SOUTH AS A HAYS TO HUGOTON LINE BY LATE MORNING BEFORE
STARTING TO WASH OUT AND RETREAT NORTHWARD. NOT SURE THAT WE WILL
SEE ANY CONVECTION FIRING IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY GIVEN THE
WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES BUT WILL LEAVE ANY CHANCES FROM THAT OUT
OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. IN RESPONSE TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SHORT
WAVE, THE MODELS HINT AT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OFF OF
THE NORTHEAST COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND MOVING POSSIBLY MOVING INTO
FAR WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING. THE GOING FORECAST HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS. ANY STORMS THAT MAKE IT INTO WESTERN KANSAS SHOULD
DIE LATER THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. WILL KEEP SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS DRY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE MODELS KEEP
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. BILL CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES TODAY ACROSS THE BOARD AS
WARMER THE COLUMN CONTINUES TO WARM AND DEEP MIXING IS EXPECTED
TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
ON THURSDAY, THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL WILL BE LOCATED
OVER NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA, WITH UPSLOPE, SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW OVER WESTERN KANSAS. WEAK NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER WESTERN KANSAS, COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID 60S, WEAK CAPPING AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY LEAD
TO LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY OVER FAR
WESTERN KANSAS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED WEAK UPPER LEVEL WINDS, THESE
STORMS MAY NOT BE SEVERE, BUT SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW, TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. ON FRIDAY, LEE
TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP A LITTLE MORE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS, BUT
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY WEAK AND GIVEN THE
LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, ANYTHING MORE THAN JUST AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS NOT EXPECTED. HIGHS OUGHT TO REACH INTO THE MID
90S ALONG THE COLORADO STATE LINE, WITH UPPER 80S IN CENTRAL
KANSAS. SATURDAY WILL BE A WARMER DAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PROGRESSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, ALONG WITH
SURFACE TROUGHING OVER WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN`T BE RULED OUT ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE
SURFACE TROUGH. HIGHS SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE MID 90S, WITH SOME
UPPER 90S ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. THERE
IS A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT OVER WESTERN KANSAS. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST
TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
WHERE A LOW TO MID LEVEL DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WILL EXIST. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S AND POSSIBLY NEAR 100 OVER WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS, WITH MAINLY MID 90S FARTHER SOUTHEAST. LOWS WILL ONLY BE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN THE
VARIOUS MODELS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY MID
TO LATE NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL GENERALLY RESULT
IN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH THE HIGHEST
SPEEDS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
MAY OCCUR NEAR KHYS OR EVEN KGCK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 87 64 89 65 / 10 10 10 10
GCK 88 62 92 65 / 20 20 10 20
EHA 89 63 93 64 / 20 30 20 20
LBL 88 63 90 64 / 10 10 10 10
HYS 89 64 90 65 / 20 20 10 10
P28 85 66 89 68 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
606 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2015
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 157 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
08Z water vapor shows a similar picture to yesterday. Just with
tropical storm Bill now over south TX while the mean westerlies
remain over the northern half of the U.S. The wrench in the forecast
is a dying MCS over south central NEB. At 04Z observations showed a
weak area of low pressure along the NEB and SD state line with a
weak boundary trailing into northeast CO.
For today and tonight, the forecast area is expected to remain in
between the remnants of Bill to the south and the faster mid level
flow over the northern plains. Models show the weak boundary to the
north stalling out across NEB this afternoon which could provide a
focus for convection this afternoon and overnight. However with the
MCS likely putting an outflow boundary out into north central KS,
there could be a little better chance for convection to form across
northern KS this afternoon. Some of the short term runs like the
HRRR/RAP/ARW support this idea of convection developing in the heat
of the day across north central KS and along the NEB state line.
With this in mind have some 30 percent chance POPs across north
central KS by the mid afternoon hours. Some instability is expected
to develop with model progs showing around 2000 J/kg. There may be a
small chance for a strong storm or two to form. However deep layer
shear is expected to remain rather modest around 25 KTS which may
lead to disorganized storm structure and behaving as ordinary cells.
The day shift will need to monitor. To the south, Bill should remain
well south of the forecast area through tonight. Have maintained
some chance POPs across far southeastern sections of the forecast
area to blend with neighboring offices.
Highs today are expected to be a little warmer with better
insolation anticipated across the northern sections of the forecast
area. Have mid 80s going for areas that should see the sun today.
East central KS may have more more clouds blow off from Bill.
Because of this have highs in the lower 80s. For tonight, there are
no signs of cold air advection or dryer air moving in, so lows in
the mid to upper 60s are expected to prevail.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 157 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
At the start of the long term period, the remnants of T.S. Bill
should be over Oklahoma. The models have been consistent with the
movement of Bill lifting it through the Ozarks before it gets caught
up in the westerlies and carried off the east. Will keep small
rain chances in our southeast counties even through the models
keep the QPF associated with Bill just southeast of the forecast
area.
Meanwhile, fast zonal westerly flow continues across the northern
tier states. The frontal boundary and sensible weather associated
with shortwave energy in the northern stream should remain north
of Kansas through Friday.
Northeast Kansas will be between Bill and the westerlies to the
north thus mainly dry. Easterly boundary layer flow around Bill
will shift to the south by Friday evening as Bill departs to the
east.
Both the 00Z GFS/ECMWF continue to build an upper ridge into the
central plains from the desert southwest this weekend and early
next week. A weak cold front is still expected to reach northern
Kansas Saturday night before lifting back north on Sunday. The 00Z
ECMWF is much more bullish with it`s QPF on Sunday over northeast
Kansas compared to the GFS. With building heights, really don`t
expect any significant frontal push into Kansas and I would not be
surprised if the front ever makes it as far south as I70. Will
continue small POPS Saturday night through Sunday evening due to
the boundary being in the area and an modestly unstable airmass to
work with. Forcing will be weak and with warming temperatures
aloft should limit precipitation coverage. The ECMWF looks
overdone with it`s QPF based on the above.
By early next week, the upper level ridge builds over the central
plains. The result will be dry and very warm weather just in time
for summer. Temperatures will be above normal for Saturday onward
and expect several days of highs in the 90s across the area.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 606 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
NAM and RAP forecast soundings show the boundary layer mixing out
by 14Z. Therefore have the fog ending between 14 and 15Z.
Otherwise think VFR conditions should prevail once the fog burns
off. Think precip chances for the terminals is to low to include.
The exception would be if outflow from the early morning MCS is
able to move into MHK. Then there may be an isolated storms impact
the terminal.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Johnson
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1000 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
FOG HAS BURNED OFF IN MOST SPOTS THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROGRESSING NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES THIS MORNING.
THESE STORMS WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING HOURS. UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
NORTH AND ALSO UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THE NEAR TERM TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CLUSTER
OF STORMS THAT WILL LIKELY BRUSH THROUGH OUR NORTHERN MOST
COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALSO FINE TUNED THE T/TD GRIDS
PER THE LATEST...RESTORED...OBS AND TRENDS. THE FOG WAS LINGERED
FOR AN EXTRA HOUR...AS WELL. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT
TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY...WASHED OUT BOUNDARY
LYING OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH HIGH HUMIDITY AND MILD
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IS
LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTHWEST MOVING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT OF THE OHIO VALLEY...THOUGH DESTINED TO NEVER GET HERE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE SPAWNED OVER THE AREA DURING THE
DAY MONDAY THANKS IN PART TO THAT WEAK SFC BOUNDARY. WHILE THE
EASTERN PART OF THE STATE IS MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING...A
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL GOING STRONG OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION AND ACROSS THE BORDER INTO SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND ILLINOIS. LOCALLY...TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY UNIFORM
IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S ACROSS THE CWA WITH DEWPOINTS A
DEGREE OR SO LOWER IN MOST SPOTS WHILE WINDS ARE LIGHT. PATCHY
FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...IS NOTED AT JKL AND IN SOME OF THE WEB
CAMS...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT
AN ADVISORY OR SPS ATTM. BUILDING CLOUD COVER FROM THE NEARBY
FRONT AND STORMS TO THE WEST SHOULD HELP LIMIT ITS IMPACT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE PATTERN THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT THE SUB
TROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE OHIO RIVER BASICALLY
ITS NORTHERN EDGE. TO THE SOUTHWEST...THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES OF
FORMER TROPICAL STORM BILL ARE SHOWN MOVING FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS
TO THE OZARKS BY 00Z FRIDAY. ALONG THE TOP OF THE RIDGE A TRAIN
OF MINOR ENERGY WAVES WILL RIPPLE PAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THURSDAY
HELPING TO SUPPRESS THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE...WITH SOME
ASSISTANCE FROM BILL/S REMNANT CIRCULATION APPROACHING LATE IN
THE PERIOD. THIS FORECAST WILL BE DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE FEATURES...
THOUGH...SO HAVE FAVORED RADAR TRENDS AND THE LATEST HRRR FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST ALONG WITH THE HIGH RESOLUTION NAM12
FOR THE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY PORTIONS.
THE SAME INGREDIENTS THAT PRODUCED STORMS...A COUPLE OF WHICH WERE
SEVERE...YESTERDAY WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY AND THURSDAY TO FUEL
STORM DEVELOPMENT. THESE COMPONENTS ARE...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
IN THE AIR...PWS NEAR 2 INCHES...AND INSTABILITY WITH CAPES TO
3000 J/KG BY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...THE LAPSE RATES WILL BE A
BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
ACCORDINGLY...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR THE REST. ONE
FLY IN THE OINTMENT...THOUGH...WILL BE THE REMAINS OF THE ONGOING
STORMS TO THE WEST. THE HRRR TRIES TO TAKE THE CORE OF THESE OVER
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...BUT THAT PROGRESS IS IN DOUBT GIVEN RADAR
TRENDS AND THE NAM12 SOLUTION. WHAT DOES HAPPEN WITH THESE STORMS
WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT EFFECT ON OUR INSTABILITY LATER THIS
MORNING DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUN CAN GET IN HERE BEFORE THE
CLOUDS...OR REMAINING CONVECTIVE CELLS...FROM THE WEST MOVE INTO
THE JKL CWA. AT WORST...THIS COULD DELAY THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRONGER STORMS UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE THREAT
WILL CERTAINLY REMAIN. FOR THIS...WILL CONTINUE TO HIT IT IN THE
HWO AS WELL AS ADDING A HEADLINE TO THE WEB/PARTNER E-MAIL. THE
MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINS. THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIURNALLY WANE TONIGHT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AGAIN
ANTICIPATED IN THIS MUGGY ENVIRONMENT. ON THURSDAY...THE
CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS FAVORABLE FOR STORM FORMATION AS
THE FRONT LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WEAKENS A TAD. BOTH TODAY AND THURSDAY HIGHS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE IN THE LOW 90S...BUT CLOUDS AND CONVECTION WILL
LIMIT THE WORST OF THE HEAT...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN PARTS
OF THE CWA TODAY WHERE 85 DEGREES MAY BE A STRETCH.
ONCE AGAIN THE T/TD/WINDS GRIDS WERE STARTED OFF FROM THE
SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE
SUPERBLEND. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE IMPACT THAT THE CONVECTION WILL
HAVE ON THESE ELEMENTS CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL FOR THEIR
SPECIFICS. DID RAISE TEMPS A SMIDGEN ON THURSDAY WITH SLIGHTLY
LESS CONVECTION ANTICIPATED THAN TODAY. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP
CLOSEST TO THE HIGHER MET NUMBERS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM AS THE MAV APPEARS TO BE OVERLY DRY GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL OF THIS PATTERN AND PERHAPS THE COARSER RESOLUTION OF
ITS PARENT MODEL WHEN COMPARED TO THAT OF THE MET/S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
A VERY WET AND ACTIVE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD SEEMS TO BE ON TAP.
THE PERIOD BEGINS ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN OPEN SOUTHERLY FLOW IN
PLACE PUTTING EAST KENTUCKY IN A TROPICAL TYPE AIRMASS. HEADING INTO
FRIDAY...THE REMNANTS OF BILL SETS UP JUST TO THE WEST OVER THE MID
MS RIVER VALLEY POISED TO HEAD EAST UP THE OH VALLEY AND WITH IT...A
SUBSTANTIAL SHOT OF MOISTURE. THIS IS CONFIRMED WITH THE LATEST RUN
OF THE GFS AND EURO AND ALSO WITH THE SUPER BLEND. THE INFLUX OF
MOISTURE AND THE REMNANTS OF BILL...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BECOMING
AN OPEN WAVE...COUPLED WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE OH VALLEY
WILL BE A FOCUS FOR CONTINUED ROUNDS OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. PWATS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 1.75 TO 2.00
INCH RANGE.
BY MONDAY THE PATTERN TAKES ON A MORE DIURNAL DRIVEN MAX AND MIN
TIME FOR CONVECTION. MONDAY AND TUESDAYS ACTIVITY WILL DRIVEN BY A
COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE JET.
THESE WAVES WILL BRING A COUPLE OF WEAK COLD FRONTS THROUGH THE
AREA. HOWEVER...AS WELL...WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING INTO THE AREA...THIS PATTERN DOES FAVOR A
MCS TYPE PATTERN. AT THE SURFACE...THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
WARMER TEMPS WILL KEEP THE AREA IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS
AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S MAKING FOR A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS EACH DAY. CERTAINLY THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD RAISES A
CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND...POSSIBLY COMPLICATED
BY THE MCS PATTERN TO START THE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID MORNING. HAVE
INCLUDED VCTS FOR THIS IN THE SYM TAF. OTHERWISE...FOG OF VARYING
DENSITY WILL DISSIPATE BY 14Z WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS
DEVELOPING BY NOON FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS FOR
THIS IN ALL THE TAFS...RUNNING IT THROUGH SUNSET. WINDS WILL PICK
UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST THIS MORNING AT NEAR 10 KTS INTO THE
AFTERNOON...THEN DIE OFF AFTER SUNSET. IN ADDITION...DO
ANTICIPATE SOME MVFR FOG AROUND TONIGHT AT MOST OF THE SITES.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
740 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THE NEAR TERM TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CLUSTER
OF STORMS THAT WILL LIKELY BRUSH THROUGH OUR NORTHERN MOST
COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALSO FINE TUNED THE T/TD GRIDS
PER THE LATEST...RESTORED...OBS AND TRENDS. THE FOG WAS LINGERED
FOR AN EXTRA HOUR...AS WELL. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT
TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY...WASHED OUT BOUNDARY
LYING OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH HIGH HUMIDITY AND MILD
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IS
LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTHWEST MOVING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT OF THE OHIO VALLEY...THOUGH DESTINED TO NEVER GET HERE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE SPAWNED OVER THE AREA DURING THE
DAY MONDAY THANKS IN PART TO THAT WEAK SFC BOUNDARY. WHILE THE
EASTERN PART OF THE STATE IS MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING...A
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL GOING STRONG OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION AND ACROSS THE BORDER INTO SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND ILLINOIS. LOCALLY...TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY UNIFORM
IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S ACROSS THE CWA WITH DEWPOINTS A
DEGREE OR SO LOWER IN MOST SPOTS WHILE WINDS ARE LIGHT. PATCHY
FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...IS NOTED AT JKL AND IN SOME OF THE WEB
CAMS...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT
AN ADVISORY OR SPS ATTM. BUILDING CLOUD COVER FROM THE NEARBY
FRONT AND STORMS TO THE WEST SHOULD HELP LIMIT ITS IMPACT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE PATTERN THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT THE SUB
TROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE OHIO RIVER BASICALLY
ITS NORTHERN EDGE. TO THE SOUTHWEST...THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES OF
FORMER TROPICAL STORM BILL ARE SHOWN MOVING FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS
TO THE OZARKS BY 00Z FRIDAY. ALONG THE TOP OF THE RIDGE A TRAIN
OF MINOR ENERGY WAVES WILL RIPPLE PAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THURSDAY
HELPING TO SUPPRESS THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE...WITH SOME
ASSISTANCE FROM BILL/S REMNANT CIRCULATION APPROACHING LATE IN
THE PERIOD. THIS FORECAST WILL BE DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE FEATURES...
THOUGH...SO HAVE FAVORED RADAR TRENDS AND THE LATEST HRRR FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST ALONG WITH THE HIGH RESOLUTION NAM12
FOR THE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY PORTIONS.
THE SAME INGREDIENTS THAT PRODUCED STORMS...A COUPLE OF WHICH WERE
SEVERE...YESTERDAY WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY AND THURSDAY TO FUEL
STORM DEVELOPMENT. THESE COMPONENTS ARE...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
IN THE AIR...PWS NEAR 2 INCHES...AND INSTABILITY WITH CAPES TO
3000 J/KG BY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...THE LAPSE RATES WILL BE A
BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
ACCORDINGLY...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR THE REST. ONE
FLY IN THE OINTMENT...THOUGH...WILL BE THE REMAINS OF THE ONGOING
STORMS TO THE WEST. THE HRRR TRIES TO TAKE THE CORE OF THESE OVER
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...BUT THAT PROGRESS IS IN DOUBT GIVEN RADAR
TRENDS AND THE NAM12 SOLUTION. WHAT DOES HAPPEN WITH THESE STORMS
WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT EFFECT ON OUR INSTABILITY LATER THIS
MORNING DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUN CAN GET IN HERE BEFORE THE
CLOUDS...OR REMAINING CONVECTIVE CELLS...FROM THE WEST MOVE INTO
THE JKL CWA. AT WORST...THIS COULD DELAY THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRONGER STORMS UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE THREAT
WILL CERTAINLY REMAIN. FOR THIS...WILL CONTINUE TO HIT IT IN THE
HWO AS WELL AS ADDING A HEADLINE TO THE WEB/PARTNER E-MAIL. THE
MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINS. THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIURNALLY WANE TONIGHT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AGAIN
ANTICIPATED IN THIS MUGGY ENVIRONMENT. ON THURSDAY...THE
CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS FAVORABLE FOR STORM FORMATION AS
THE FRONT LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WEAKENS A TAD. BOTH TODAY AND THURSDAY HIGHS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE IN THE LOW 90S...BUT CLOUDS AND CONVECTION WILL
LIMIT THE WORST OF THE HEAT...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN PARTS
OF THE CWA TODAY WHERE 85 DEGREES MAY BE A STRETCH.
ONCE AGAIN THE T/TD/WINDS GRIDS WERE STARTED OFF FROM THE
SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE
SUPERBLEND. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE IMPACT THAT THE CONVECTION WILL
HAVE ON THESE ELEMENTS CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL FOR THEIR
SPECIFICS. DID RAISE TEMPS A SMIDGEN ON THURSDAY WITH SLIGHTLY
LESS CONVECTION ANTICIPATED THAN TODAY. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP
CLOSEST TO THE HIGHER MET NUMBERS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM AS THE MAV APPEARS TO BE OVERLY DRY GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL OF THIS PATTERN AND PERHAPS THE COARSER RESOLUTION OF
ITS PARENT MODEL WHEN COMPARED TO THAT OF THE MET/S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
A VERY WET AND ACTIVE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD SEEMS TO BE ON TAP.
THE PERIOD BEGINS ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN OPEN SOUTHERLY FLOW IN
PLACE PUTTING EAST KENTUCKY IN A TROPICAL TYPE AIRMASS. HEADING INTO
FRIDAY...THE REMNANTS OF BILL SETS UP JUST TO THE WEST OVER THE MID
MS RIVER VALLEY POISED TO HEAD EAST UP THE OH VALLEY AND WITH IT...A
SUBSTANTIAL SHOT OF MOISTURE. THIS IS CONFIRMED WITH THE LATEST RUN
OF THE GFS AND EURO AND ALSO WITH THE SUPER BLEND. THE INFLUX OF
MOISTURE AND THE REMNANTS OF BILL...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BECOMING
AN OPEN WAVE...COUPLED WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE OH VALLEY
WILL BE A FOCUS FOR CONTINUED ROUNDS OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. PWATS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 1.75 TO 2.00
INCH RANGE.
BY MONDAY THE PATTERN TAKES ON A MORE DIURNAL DRIVEN MAX AND MIN
TIME FOR CONVECTION. MONDAY AND TUESDAYS ACTIVITY WILL DRIVEN BY A
COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE JET.
THESE WAVES WILL BRING A COUPLE OF WEAK COLD FRONTS THROUGH THE
AREA. HOWEVER...AS WELL...WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING INTO THE AREA...THIS PATTERN DOES FAVOR A
MCS TYPE PATTERN. AT THE SURFACE...THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
WARMER TEMPS WILL KEEP THE AREA IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS
AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S MAKING FOR A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS EACH DAY. CERTAINLY THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD RAISES A
CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND...POSSIBLY COMPLICATED
BY THE MCS PATTERN TO START THE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID MORNING. HAVE
INCLUDED VCTS FOR THIS IN THE SYM TAF. OTHERWISE...FOG OF VARYING
DENSITY WILL DISSIPATE BY 14Z WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS
DEVELOPING BY NOON FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS FOR
THIS IN ALL THE TAFS...RUNNING IT THROUGH SUNSET. WINDS WILL PICK
UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST THIS MORNING AT NEAR 10 KTS INTO THE
AFTERNOON...THEN DIE OFF AFTER SUNSET. IN ADDITION...DO
ANTICIPATE SOME MVFR FOG AROUND TONIGHT AT MOST OF THE SITES.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
642 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
SAT IMAGERY SHOWS DECREASING TREND IN CLOUD COVER IS FASTER THAN
EXPECTED. SO THE SKY FCST WAS UPDATED THRU MIDDAY TO REFLECT THIS.
SHOULD BE M/SUNNY THIS AM.
EQUIPMENT: YOU MAY BE AWARE THAT OBS WERE MISSING FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. THIS WAS DUE TO FAA MAINTENANCE. OBS RETURNED AS OF 10Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
ALOFT: THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN OVER THE NRN USA
THRU DAWN TOMORROW...WITH A VERY LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE NRN
ROCKIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN WNW FLOW OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS.
SUBTROPICAL HIGHS WILL CONT OVER THE SW AND SE USA...WITH THE
REMNANTS OF BILL LIFTING N INTO OK.
SURFACE: THE POLAR FRONT WAS QUASI-STATIONARY ON THE SRN FRINGE
OF THE WESTERLIES AND EXTENDED FROM WY-NEB E INTO THE OH VALLEY.
THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY THRU TONIGHT...AND WILL BE
MODULATED/MODIFIED BY TSTM ACTIVITY.
NOW: THE REMNANTS OF A DECAYING MCS ARE MOVING THRU AT THIS TIME.
RAIN-COOLED OUTFLOW HAS OVERTAKEN THE ENTIRE FCST AREA. WE DID SEE
MULTIPLE GUSTS UP TO 43 MPH ACROSS FURNAS/HARLAN/FRANKLIN COUNTIES
12AM-2AM WHEN IT WAS MORE POTENT.
TODAY: DECREASING CLOUDS THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW
REGARDING TSTM REDEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO A LACK OF
SYNOPTIC FORCING.
THE 00Z 4KM WRF-NMM HAS AN EXCELLENT HANDLE ON WHAT IS GOING ON
NOW...IT`S JUST TOO SLOW BY 4 HRS. IT SUGGESTS THE BEST
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE S AND E OF THE FCST AREA...PROBABLY ALONG THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GENERATED BY THIS MORNING`S MCS. DEVELOPMENTS IN
THE RAIN- COOLED AIR OVER THE FCST AREA LOOK VERY
ISOLATED/MINIMAL...AND IF THERE IS NOT ENOUGH TSTM ACTIVITY TO
FORM A COMMON COLD POOL...WHAT LITTLE ACTIVITY FIRES SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. THE 06Z HRRR HAS A SIMILAR IDEA AT 21Z.
ENOUGH CLEARING TODAY SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY...
WITH MLCAPE 2000-2500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR 30-40 KTS...HIGHEST
OVER S-CNTRL NEB. LOW-LVL VEERING RESULTS IN 0-3 KM SRH OF 150
J/KG. THIS WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL CONVECTIVE MODE. SPC
HAS MOST OF THE FCST AREA OUTLOOKED IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR.
TONIGHT: IT ALL HINGES ON WHAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON. IF ONLY A
FEW ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE FCST AREA...THEY WILL
DIMINISH AND END MID-LATE EVE. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH DEVELOPMENTS
TO THE W. THE SIGNAL IS NOT GREAT...BUT CELL MERGERS COULD RESULT
IN AN MCS THAT COULD PROPAGATE INTO NEB. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW
GIVEN THE LACK OF MODEL QPF CLUSTERING AND LOW SREF QPF
PROBABILITIES.
GIVEN LOW FCST CONFIDENCE...POPS ARE NO HIGHER THAN 20% TODAY-
TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SUBTLE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING WILL BE NOTED
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE TO START THE LONG- TERM
FORECAST PERIOD AT 12Z THURSDAY...AND ALTHOUGH THIS RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST TO FINISH THE WEEK...THERE ARE ALSO
INDICATIONS OF ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS
DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SUBTLE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATION WILL
CLEAR THE AREA THURSDAY AND AS A RESULT...~20% POPS CONTINUE IN
THE FORECAST FOR THE MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
ALTHOUGH THIS PERTURBATION IS EXPECTED TO HAVE CLEARED OUR AREA BY
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THERE ALSO REMAIN INDICATIONS OF HIGH
PLAINS CONVECTION PERHAPS SUSTAINING ITSELF LONG ENOUGH TO IMPACT
FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY EVENING AND AS A
RESULT...~20% POPS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR FAR WEST 00-06Z FRIDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...THE FIRST UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA...THUS
ELIMINATING ANY APPRECIABLE OMEGA. THIS...AND THE PRESENCE OF A
HEALTHY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC CAPPING INVERSION EACH
AFTERNOON...RESULTS IN A POP-FREE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MORE INTO THE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY TIME PERIOD...ANOTHER ROUND OF MULTIPLE UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATIONS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FIRST
RIDGE COULD BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION AND AS A
RESULT...WENT AHEAD WITH 20-30% POPS ACROSS VARIOUS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST
NEXT TUESDAY AS THE SECOND UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA.
AS WAS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...RESPECTABLE BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE
...ALONG WITH VARYING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PERTURBATIONS...WILL PROMOTE VARYING
LEVELS OF POTENTIAL ENERGY FROM DAY TO DAY DURING THE LONG-TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING...ENERGY LEVELS
GENERALLY RANGING FROM 1000-2000J/KG ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED. GIVEN
THIS...WILL CONTINUE MENTIONING THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE HWO FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
EVENING. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AIR MASS EARLY
NEXT WEEK SUGGESTS STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER COULD RESULT SHOULD
CONVECTION DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL...BUT AT THIS TIME IT
IS TOO EARLY TO INTRODUCE ANY MENTION OF SEVERE WEATHER THAT FAR
INTO THE FUTURE.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS WILL PROMOTE WARM
WEATHER DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 80S AND 90S AND LOWS IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S. AT
THIS TIME THE WARMEST DAY APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
LIKELY CLIMBING INTO THE 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWA AND
PERHAPS NEARING THE CENTURY MARK ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
THESE TEMPERATURE READINGS...IF REALIZED...WOULD HELP PROMOTE HEAT
INDEX READINGS OF 100-102 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. NOT YET
READY TO INTRODUCE HEAT WORDING IN THE HWO FOR THIS WEEKEND...BUT
THIS MAY BE SOMETHING TO CONSIDER IN THE COMING DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z THU MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
TODAY: VFR. CIG AND VSBY UNLIMITED THRU 17Z THEN SCT CU WILL
DEVELOP WITH BASES LIFTING TO 4-5K FT. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY
OF A TSTM WITH IFR VSBY AFTER 21Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL BE VRB UNDER 10 KTS AND
ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE LINGERING EFFECTS OF DISSIPATED
OVERNIGHT TSTM ACTIVITY AND A STALL FRONT. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
TONIGHT: A LOW PROBABILITY OF A TSTM. OTHERWISE MULTI-LAYERED VFR
CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 8K FT...DEPENDING ON WHERE TSTMS DEVELOP. WINDS
PROBABLY SE UNDER 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1122 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTH LIFTS BACK NORTH WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM
BILL REMNANTS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
TRACKING A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS HEADING INTO THE HTS
AREA...BUT CURRENTLY IN A LULL RIGHT NOW IN TERMS OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CWA. NORTHWESTERN ZONES RECEIVING STRATIFORM RAIN
FROM AN OLD CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...AND THIS MAY AFFECT EARLY
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. MEANWHILE...SOUTHERN ZONES ARE GETTING
EXPOSURE TO SUN THIS MORNING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
00Z NAM NOT HANDLING THE WAVE COMING OUT OF THE MIDWEST VERY
WELL...SO RELIED MORE ON THE HRRR FOR POPS TODAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL SLOWLY RETURN NORTHWARD
TODAY. AM A BIT CONCERNED WITH POTENTIAL FOR WATER PROBLEMS...BUT
THE MORNING ARRIVAL OF THE FIRST WAVE WILL LIMIT HEATING.
ALSO...MUCH OF THE NORTHERN COUNTIES HAD A BREAK FROM HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS
SITUATION HOWEVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH STILL OVER THE SOUTHEAST US PLENTY OF
SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE HIGH ACROSS WEST
VIRGINIA. THIS WILL MEAN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
OCCUR WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS. EVEN WITH DECENT MODEL
AGREEMENT TIMING EACH FEATURE IS VERY DIFFICULT SO WENT WITH MORE OF
A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH.
WITH SUCH A TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE AND WHAT WILL ESSENTIALLY BE A
WEEK OF HIGH PWS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA EACH DAY BRINGS ON MORE OF A CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO. AT SOME POINT IN TIME A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS ON THURSDAY
FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT
RISK FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY.
THE LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES WITH
THIS. IN ADDITION THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT POSSIBLE WIND GUSTS
FOR THE MOUNTAINS. WITH SUCH SATURATED SOILS THIS COULD CAUSE SOME
TREES TO FALL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE REMNANTS OF WHAT WAS TROPICAL STORM BILL SHOULD BE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE START OF THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP
SKIES CLOUDY AND RAIN CHANGES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
START OF THE NEXT WEEK. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
PERIOD AS CONTINUED RAINFALL IS LIKELY IN THE PATH OF THIS SYSTEM.
THIS IS LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WILL MAKE SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR TIMING. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA WILL
SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR THE FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING. A DISTURBANCE WILL THEN
PUSH THROUGH SOUTHEAST OHIO INTO NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA LATER THIS
MORNING. THE STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD GRADUALLY RAISE
INTO A CUMULUS DECK DURING THE DAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FORMING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.
DUE TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...CLOUD DECKS COULD FORM AT
MOST ANY LEVEL TONIGHT...LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE. BEST BET WOULD
BE A STRATUS DECK ACROSS NORTHERN WV AND SOUTHEAST OHIO. FOG IS A
POSSIBILITY WHERE CLOUDS DO NOT FORM.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW THIS MORNING...MEDIUM THIS AFTERNOON...LOW
TONIGHT.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HEIGHT OF A STRATUS DECK THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN TONIGHT COULD VARY CONSIDERABLY. DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE
OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AIRMASS...SPECIFIC TIMING AND INTENSITY ARE
NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS AFTER THE FIRST FEW HOURS. FOG COULD BE
MORE AN ISSUE TONIGHT.
.AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF MORNING FOG WILL DEPENDS OF LOCATIONS THAT
GET RAIN AND CAN CLEAR OUT AT NIGHT.
&&
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/RPY/JMV
NEAR TERM...RPY/26
SHORT TERM...FB
LONG TERM...JSH/JMV
AVIATION...RPY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1016 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTH LIFTS BACK NORTH WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM
BILL REMNANTS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
TRACKING A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS HEADING INTO THE HTS
AREA...BUT CURRENTLY IN A LULL RIGHT NOW IN TERMS OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CWA. NORTHWESTERN ZONES RECEIVING STRATIFORM RAIN
FROM AN OLD CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...AND THIS MAY AFFECT EARLY
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. MEANWHILE...SOUTHERN ZONES ARE GETTING
EXPOSURE TO SUN THIS MORNING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
00Z NAM NOT HANDLING THE WAVE COMING OUT OF THE MIDWEST VERY
WELL...SO RELIED MORE ON THE HRRR FOR POPS TODAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL SLOWLY RETURN NORTHWARD
TODAY. AM A BIT CONCERNED WITH POTENTIAL FOR WATER PROBLEMS...BUT
THE MORNING ARRIVAL OF THE FIRST WAVE WILL LIMIT HEATING.
ALSO...MUCH OF THE NORTHERN COUNTIES HAD A BREAK FROM HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS
SITUATION HOWEVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH STILL OVER THE SOUTHEAST US PLENTY OF
SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE HIGH ACROSS WEST
VIRGINIA. THIS WILL MEAN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
OCCUR WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS. EVEN WITH DECENT MODEL
AGREEMENT TIMING EACH FEATURE IS VERY DIFFICULT SO WENT WITH MORE OF
A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH.
WITH SUCH A TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE AND WHAT WILL ESSENTIALLY BE A
WEEK OF HIGH PWS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA EACH DAY BRINGS ON MORE OF A CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO. AT SOME POINT IN TIME A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS ON THURSDAY
FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT
RISK FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY.
THE LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BOB WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THE CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES WITH THIS. IN
ADDITION THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT POSSIBLE WIND GUSTS FOR THE
MOUNTAINS. WITH SUCH SATURATED SOILS THIS COULD CAUSE SOME TREES TO
FALL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE REMNANTS OF WHAT WAS TROPICAL STORM BILL SHOULD BE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE START OF THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP
SKIES CLOUDY AND RAIN CHANGES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
START OF THE NEXT WEEK. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
PERIOD AS CONTINUED RAINFALL IS LIKELY IN THE PATH OF THIS SYSTEM.
THIS IS LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WILL MAKE SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR TIMING. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA WILL
SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR THE FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING. A DISTURBANCE WILL THEN
PUSH THROUGH SOUTHEAST OHIO INTO NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA LATER THIS
MORNING. THE STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD GRADUALLY RAISE
INTO A CUMULUS DECK DURING THE DAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FORMING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.
DUE TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...CLOUD DECKS COULD FORM AT
MOST ANY LEVEL TONIGHT...LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE. BEST BET WOULD
BE A STRATUS DECK ACROSS NORTHERN WV AND SOUTHEAST OHIO. FOG IS A
POSSIBILITY WHERE CLOUDS DO NOT FORM.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW THIS MORNING...MEDIUM THIS AFTERNOON...LOW
TONIGHT.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HEIGHT OF A STRATUS DECK THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN TONIGHT COULD VARY CONSIDERABLY. DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE
OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AIRMASS...SPECIFIC TIMING AND INTENSITY ARE
NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS AFTER THE FIRST FEW HOURS. FOG COULD BE
MORE AN ISSUE TONIGHT.
.AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF MORNING FOG WILL DEPENDS OF LOCATIONS THAT
GET RAIN AND CAN CLEAR OUT AT NIGHT.
&&
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/RPY/JMV
NEAR TERM...RPY/26
SHORT TERM...FB
LONG TERM...JSH/JMV
AVIATION...RPY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
557 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTH LIFTS BACK NORTH WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM
BILL REMNANTS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
00Z NAM NOT HANDLING THE WAVE COMING OUT OF THE MIDWEST VERY
WELL...SO RELIED MORE ON THE HRRR FOR POPS TODAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL SLOWLY RETURN NORTHWARD
TODAY. AM A BIT CONCERNED WITH POTENTIAL FOR WATER PROBLEMS...BUT
THE MORNING ARRIVAL OF THE FIRST WAVE WILL LIMIT HEATING.
ALSO...MUCH OF THE NORTHERN COUNTIES HAD A BREAK FROM HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS
SITUATION HOWEVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH STILL OVER THE SOUTHEAST US PLENTY OF
SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE HIGH ACROSS WEST
VIRGINIA. THIS WILL MEAN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
OCCUR WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS. EVEN WITH DECENT MODEL
AGREEMENT TIMING EACH FEATURE IS VERY DIFFICULT SO WENT WITH MORE OF
A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH.
WITH SUCH A TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE AND WHAT WILL ESSENTIALLY BE A
WEEK OF HIGH PWS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA EACH DAY BRINGS ON MORE OF A CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO. AT SOME POINT IN TIME A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS ON THURSDAY
FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT
RISK FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY.
THE LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BOB WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THE CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES WITH THIS. IN
ADDITION THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT POSSIBLE WIND GUSTS FOR THE
MOUNTAINS. WITH SUCH SATURATED SOILS THIS COULD CAUSE SOME TREES TO
FALL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE REMNANTS OF WHAT WAS TROPICAL STORM BILL SHOULD BE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE START OF THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP
SKIES CLOUDY AND RAIN CHANGES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
START OF THE NEXT WEEK. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
PERIOD AS CONTINUED RAINFALL IS LIKELY IN THE PATH OF THIS SYSTEM.
THIS IS LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WILL MAKE SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR TIMING. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA WILL
SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR THE FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING. A DISTURBANCE WILL THEN
PUSH THROUGH SOUTHEAST OHIO INTO NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA LATER THIS
MORNING. THE STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD GRADUALLY RAISE
INTO A CUMULUS DECK DURING THE DAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FORMING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.
DUE TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...CLOUD DECKS COULD FORM AT
MOST ANY LEVEL TONIGHT...LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE. BEST BET WOULD
BE A STRATUS DECK ACROSS NORTHERN WV AND SOUTHEAST OHIO. FOG IS A
POSSIBILITY WHERE CLOUDS DO NOT FORM.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW THIS MORNING...MEDIUM THIS AFTERNOON...LOW
TONIGHT.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HEIGHT OF A STRATUS DECK THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN TONIGHT COULD VARY CONSIDERABLY. DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE
OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AIRMASS...SPECIFIC TIMING AND INTENSITY ARE
NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS AFTER THE FIRST FEW HOURS. FOG COULD BE
MORE AN ISSUE TONIGHT.
.AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF MORNING FOG WILL DEPENDS OF LOCATIONS THAT
GET RAIN AND CAN CLEAR OUT AT NIGHT.
&&
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/RPY/JMV
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...FB
LONG TERM...JSH/JMV
AVIATION...RPY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1024 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. A WEAK FRONT OVER THE AREA WILL
OSCILLATE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND AND BE THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY INTERACT
WITH MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL TO
BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1005 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
WEAK FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AS DEPICTED BY A RATHER SHARP GRADIENT OF NW TO SE ORIENTED
LOW LEVEL THETA-E OVER THE NORTH/NE ATTM. ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY INCLUDING THE BLUE RIDGE...SEEING QUITE A BIT OF MID
CLOUD CANOPY WITH BREAKS OVER THE FAR WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT
IMPULSE ALOFT MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST. THIS FEATURE THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS MODELS STRING IT EAST JUST NORTH OF THE
REGION LATER ON.
HOWEVER DEGREE OF ORGANIZATION APPEARS KEY TO WHETHER OR NOT MUCH
OF THE AREA SEES JUST SCATTERED COVERAGE AIDED BY OROGRAPHICS/DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING ONCE THE MID DECK ERODES OR DOES A COMPLEX ORGANIZE AND
SLIDE SE ALONG THE FRONT/THETA-E GRADIENT ESPCLY LATER ON. MUCH OF
THE LATEST GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR TEND TO KEEP A MORE CLUSTERED/BANDED
SCENARIO WITH FOCUS EVENTUALLY TRENDING BACK TO ANOTHER UPSTREAM
WAVE IN THE OHIO VALLEY LATER. THINK THIS MAY BE SOMEWHAT OVERDONE
GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR LATER STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG OLD OUTFLOW FROM
THE TAIL OF THE CONVECTION PASSING THROUGH NE KY ATTM...AND SPILL
SE INTO THE WEST WHERE HEATING AND FORECAST/MODIFIED CAPES OF AROUND
2K J/KG APPEAR LIKELY. THIS STILL PUTS THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE
NW/WEST WHERE BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELYS A BIT SOONER BEFORE UNFOLDING
CONVECTION TO THE SE ESPCLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY THIS EVENING
IF SOME SORT OF MCS DOES EVOLVE PER NEW NAM. INCREASING WIND FIELDS
ALOFT PER 30+ KT UNIDIRECTIONAL WESTERLY JET WOULD SUPPORT MORE OF
A SEVERE THREAT THAN IN RECENT DAYS WITH STRONG WINDS THE MAIN
THREAT IF CAN GET ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND DRYING ALOFT TO SUPPORT
HIGHER DCAPES LATER ON.
HIGH TEMPS APPEAR A BIT COOLER TODAY GIVEN CLOUDS AT THE ONSET AND
THE WEAK FRONT OVER PARTS OF THE REGION. HOWEVER WOULD NOT TAKE
MUCH SUN TO PUNCH READINGS BACK INTO THE 90S EAST...AND 80S WEST
SO ONLY TRIMMED HIGHS BACK A CAT OR SO NORTH/NE AND ACTUALLY
RAISED A FEW DEGREES SOUTH OF THE FRONT OVER THE SE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 500 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN TODAY IS FOR POTENTIAL MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...MCS...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE FORECAST
AREA...ESP THE VIRGINIAS...DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL VIRGINIA...WEST THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS FRONT IS POSITIONED ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH WHICH IS ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY WILL SERVE AS A PATH FOR WHICH
ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION WILL FOLLOW.
OUR FORECAST AREA IS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STRONGER
WESTERLIES ALOFT...AND RIGHT ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SURFACE HIGH. THE SURFACE FRONT IS VERY CLOSE TO OUR NORTHERN CWA
BORDER AND IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTH TO ALONG THE I-64
CORRIDOR...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE HWY 460 CORRIDOR BY
THIS EVENING. THIS IS PROBLEMATIC IN THAT IT PUTS US ON THE
RECEIVING END OF ANY ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION THAT MAY MOVE
DOWNSTREAM OR DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
MODELS SUGGEST THE OUTFLOW FROM ONGOING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE FRONT
TODAY...STORMS REDEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON.
CONCERN IS THAT TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS
WILL COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING WHEN CAPE WILL BE AT A MAXIMA.
AS SUCH...THINK STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ARE LIKELY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DAMAGING WINDS. A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK...MAIN THREAT WINDOW 4PM-10PM.
TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE DOWN A FEW DEGREES COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER. IN SPITE OF THE ONE OR TWO
DEGREE REPRIEVE...IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM AND HUMID WITH
NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
WILL START THURSDAY MORNING OFF POTENTIALLY WITH THE REMNANTS OF A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX EXITING OUR AREA TO THE EAST...WHILE WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH WILL BRING WITH IT
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDFLOW WHICH WILL LIMIT AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO ISOLATED/MAYBE WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY...WITH
BETTER CHANCES OVER THE MOUNTAINS. INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE
MODEST...SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY STRONG STORM INTENSITY.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN FOR FRIDAY AS A COLD
FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO POP UP DURING LATE MORNING
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN PULSY FASHION. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE EVENING AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES EAST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER WHILE
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE TOWARD OUR AREA. WITH BETTER
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...MAY SEE STORMS SOLIDIFY INTO A LINE AS THEY
PASS THROUGH OUR AREA...AND DESPITE THE LACK OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STORMS BECOME SEVERE.
THE MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY WILL PUSH EAST OF OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...LEAVING ONLY LINGERING SHOWER INTO DAWN SATURDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT BACKDOORS ITS WAY IN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
WINDFLOW WILL NOT TAKE LONG TO SHIFT SOUTHERLY AGAIN ACROSS OUR AREA
AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL GET CAUGHT UP IN THE
WESTERLY FLOW AND SWING SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...
ALTHOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DIFFERENCE IN WHERE THE
REMNANTS WILL TRACK. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CARRIED QUICKLY EAST THROUGH
THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS THE PLUME OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH 2.0+ INCH PWATS ENCOUNTERS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER COMPARED TO
EARLIER IN THE WEEK AND CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK...RANGING FROM THE MID 80S WEST TO THE LOW/MID 90S
EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
CONVECTION LOOKS TO BECOME MORE DIURNAL WITH A TRAILING TROUGH AXIS
CROSSING THE REGION SUNDAY AND AHEAD OF A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM COOL
FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON. WEAKNESS OF BOTH FEATURES SUGGEST MAINLY LOW
END CHANCE POPS WITH THE FRONT POSSIBLY DROPPING THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW THE FRONT TUESDAY PERHAPS
BRINGING A BIT DRIER AIR BUT AT LEAST STILL THE NEED FOR SLIGHT TO
CHANCE POPS WITH POTENTIAL FOR AN IMPULSE TO DROP IN FROM THE NW
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OTRW CONTINUED PERSISTENCE WITH HIGHS 80S WEST
AND LOW/MID 90S EAST...EXCEPT A FEW DEGREES COOLER PER CLOUDS/SHRA
SATURDAY...AND AGAIN BEHIND THE WEAK BOUNDARY ON TUESDAY...BUT
LIKELY HOTTER SUNDAY WITH SINKING MOTION/DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE
BILL REMNANT.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 820 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
SEEING MOSTLY MID DECK ACROSS THE REGION TO INIT THIS MORNING WITH
AREAS OF MVFR STRATO-CU OVER THE NW WHERE EXPECT LOWER CIGS TO
PERSIST UNTIL BETTER HEATING CAUSES CLOUDS TO MIX OUT A BIT. THIS
ALONG WITH EROSION OF THE GOING MID DECK SHOULD ALLOW A
TRANSFORMATION TO MORE OF A VFR CU FIELD BEFORE ADDED CONVECTION
DEVELOPS. ONLY EXCEPTION COULD BE OVER NE SECTIONS AROUND KLYH
WHERE THE RESIDUAL FRONT MAY CAUSE CLOUDS TO LINGER LONGER.
OTHERWISE...WILL BE WATCHING UPSTREAM THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY. WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL STEER THIS ACTIVITY
INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATER IN THE DAY. CURRENT THINKING
IS FOR AN MCS OR CLUSTERS OF STORMS TO MOVE/DEVELOP ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS SOMETIME BETWEEN 20 UTC/4PM AND 02Z/10 PM THIS EVENING.
MODELS SEEM TO CONCUR...ALTHOUGH RECENT SOLUTIONS HAVE BACKED UP
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE FARTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER IF THINGS ORGANIZE MORE
THEN DENSITY MAY CAUSE A COMPLEX TO SINK FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE
VIRGINIAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON PER EARLIER GUIDANCE.
THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE MCS WOULD BE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATION WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE
THE MAIN FOCUS OF WEATHER THRU THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH REMNANTS OF
BILL THAT SHOULD GET CAUGHT INTO THE UPPER FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS COULD RESULT IN MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR EXCEPT THE TYPICAL FOG FORMATION AT LWB/BCB
AND AT TIMES LYH THROUGH THE WEEK EARLY MORNING TIME FRAME.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 200 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
RECORD HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY JUNE 17TH...
STATION RECORD HIGHS/YEAR
ROANOKE 96/1944
LYNCHBURG 96/1944
DANVILLE 99/1981
BLACKSBURG 88/1994
BLUEFIELD 86/2007
LEWISBURG 88/2014
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH/PM
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...JH/NF
AVIATION...JH/PM
CLIMATE...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
945 AM MST WED JUN 17 2015
.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST OF
TUCSON INTO THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH VERY HOT
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS WEEKEND. SOME INCREASE
IN MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED CLEAR SKIES
PREVAIL ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY AT THIS TIME...WITH A FEW TO
SCATTERED CIRRIFORM CLOUDS ELSEWHERE ACROSS SE ARIZONA. THE BULK OF
THESE CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO FROM TUCSON
SWWD INTO NWRN SONORA. A SOMEWHAT MOIST REGIME CONTINUES ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH DEWPOINTS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS VALID 16Z RANGING FROM THE
MID 40S-LOWER 50S. THESE TEMPS WERE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED VERSUS 24
HOURS AGO. SURFACE TEMPS VALID 16Z WERE NEARLY 2-4 DEGS F LOWER
VERSUS THIS TIME TUE. 17/12Z KTWC SOUNDING PRECIP WATER VALUE OF
0.95 INCH WAS NEARLY 0.10 INCH HIGHER VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. THE
ENVIRONMENT WAS MODESTLY UNSTABLE AS PER VARIOUS STABILITY INDICES.
17/15Z RUC HRRR DEPICTS THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
OCCUR ON THE CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS GENERALLY BETWEEN 18Z-19Z TODAY.
THESE PRECIP ECHOES ARE THEN PROGGED TO MOVE SWWD AND INTO THE
VICINITY OF DOUGLAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIP IS THEN DEPICTED TO
DIMINISH QUICKLY ACROSS FAR SERN SECTIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING.
AT ANY RATE...GIVEN THE TRAJECTORY OF THESE CELLS AS PER THE RUC
HRRR...AND THE SEVERE WIND GUST OF 50 KTS RECORDED AT THE KDUG ASOS
LAST EVENING...AM CONCERNED THAT A SIMILAR EVENT MAY HAPPEN DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE POTENTIAL CERTAINLY EXISTS FOR BRIEF WIND
GUSTS AT LEAST IN THE 35-45 KT RANGE WITH ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS THAT
DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE...THE MAIN EMPHASIS FOR THIS FORECAST AREA TODAY...AND
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...IS DAYTIME TEMPS THAT WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. ASIDE FROM THE ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS FAR
SERN SECTIONS INTO THIS EVENING...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU
SUN. PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THROUGH 18/18Z.
EXPECT ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA SE OF KTUS DEVELOPING AROUND 18Z TODAY
AND CONTINUING INTO THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MAINLY OCCUR
FROM NEAR KFHU EASTWARD TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...INCLUDING KDUG.
THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 KTS. ANY -TSRA/-SHRA SHOULD
END BY 18/06Z. OTHERWISE...A FEW TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN CLOUDS
AROUND 8-12K FT AGL WILL PREVAIL INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/NWLY AT 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS.
SURFACE WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS AT OTHER TIMES. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN COCHISE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON.
STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 5 TO 15 PERCENT. EXPECT TERRAIN
DRIVEN WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON GUSTS DUE TO
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING. PERIODS OF HAINES 6 CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEN...A MOISTURE
INCREASE WILL RESULT IN RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TO MAINLY EASTERN
AREAS NEXT TUESDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 17/00Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS
SHOW THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS NOSING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN ARIZONA. PLENTY OF
DRY MID TO UPPER LEVEL AIR REMAINS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AND INTO MOST OF ARIZONA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE WHERE HIGHER MOISTURE LINGERS
ACROSS THE REGION AND INTO A LARGE PART OF OLD AND NEW MEXICO.
THE SATELLITE DERIVED BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS
VALUES OF AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...
WITH VALUES GENERALLY RANGING FROM 0.6 - 0.8 INCHES ACROSS MY
FORECAST AREA AND WELL OVER AN INCH TO OUR EAST AND SOUTH...WITH
VALUES EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES JUST SOUTH OF COCHISE COUNTY IN
NORTHEAST SONORA. YESTERDAYS 17/00Z KTWC SOUNDING SHOWED A PW OF
0.88 INCHES. THE LATEST GPS PW VALUES FROM THE U OF A INDICATE THAT
SIMILAR READINGS CONTINUE AT THIS HOUR. MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR TUCSON
SHOW PW`S DROPPING SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 0.6 -0.7 INCHES BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PUSH IN FROM THE
WEST TODAY...BRINGING THE DRIER AIR JUST TO OUR WEST FARTHER EAST.
HOWEVER...AS THIS OCCURS...MOISTURE WILL STILL BE JUST TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST AND I CAN`T RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS THE
EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTION OF MY FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY AFTER THE FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY YESTERDAY. SO...I KEPT SINGLE
DIGIT `SILENT` POPS ALONG THE BORDER WITH NEW MEXICO AND THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER ADJACENT TO COCHISE COUNTY...BUT ALSO KEPT
ISOLATED ACTIVITY FOR THE DOUGLAS AND CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS OF EAST
CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS AGREES WITH THE
MOS NUMBERS FROM THE GFS AND NAM FOR DOUGLAS.
OUR NEXT PROBLEM OF THE DAY CONTINUES TO BE THE VERY HOT
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY TO OUR WEST
EVENTUALLY SHIFTS TO OVERHEAD AND WE HEAT UP EVEN MORE. LOCAL STUDY
CORRELATING HIGH TEMPS WITH 850-700MB THICKNESS VALUES INDICATES 111
DEGS FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR TUCSON. MEANWHILE...MOS
GUIDANCE NUMBERS FROM BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW 110 DEGS FOR FRIDAY...
WHILE EURO REFLECTS THE SAME FOR THURSDAY AS WELL. BASED ON
THIS...DECIDED TO GO WITH 110 DEGS AT TUCSON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. I EVEN INCREASED HIGHS A BIT FOR TODAY
TO 109 DEGS FOR TUCSON AND THE SAME FOR THURSDAY.
BY SUNDAY THE HIGH WILL BE JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST OVER NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MARCHING WEST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND
WEST TEXAS THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING OVER THAT GENERAL
VICINITY LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS
MOISTURE WILL BE JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST. FOR NOW JUST EXPECT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY
BETWEEN TUCSON AND THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.
FOR TUCSON...HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY 8 TO 10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN 3 TO 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL THEREAFTER. LOW
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 7 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
DISCUSSION/AVIATION...FRANCIS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
FIRE WEATHER...FRENCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
307 PM MDT WED JUN 17 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM MDT WED JUN 17 2015
A MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE IS STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND
TO PRODUCE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. SOME CAPPING IN
THE MID LEVELS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE HRRR DOES SHOW THE STORMS
MOVING INTO THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS LATE THIS AFTN
AND EVENING. BEST CHC OF SVR STORMS WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF
DENVER...STILL ENOUGH CAPE/SHEAR TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS. OVERALL
COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. ON THURSDAY...HOTTER AND
DRIER IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO
COLORADO FM THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE FLOW ALOFT WEAKENING. OVERALL
TSTM COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM MDT WED JUN 17 2015
UPPER RIDGING IS PROGGED OVER COLORADO FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD TOO. THE FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO BE WEAK AND
NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY. THERE IS BENIGN SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY
ON THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL ADHERE TO NORMAL DIURNAL
PATTERNS FOR THE MOST PART. THERE IS SOME STRONGER NORTHEASTERLIES
ON SATURDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT MAY GET INTO THE LOWER
FOOTHILLS. FOR MOISTURE...THERE IS SOME THURSDAY EVENING...THEN IT
DRIES OUT FROM FRIDAY ONWARD. THE QPF FIELDS HAVE A BIT OF
MEASURABLE RAINFALL FOR THE CWA THURSDAY EVENING...THE MOST OVER
THE FAR EAST. THERE IS VERY LITTLE NO RAINFALL PROGGED THURSDAY
OVERNIGHT THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING. WILL GO WITH MINIMAL POPS
THURSDAY EVENING...THEN DRY FOR THE CWA THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY
MORNING. FOR TEMPERATURES...FRIDAY`S HIGHS LOOK TO BE 2-4 C WARMER
THAN THURSDAY`S. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE FIRST 90 DEGREE READING OF
2015. SATURDAY`S HIGHS ARE A TAD COOLER. FOR THE LATER DAYS...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THERE IS MORE UPPER RIDGING THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE FLOW ALOFT STAYS PRETTY WEAK...BUT IT DOES BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY IN DIRECTION BY MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE
ABOVE NORMALS AND THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 222 PM MDT WED JUN 17 2015
VFR CIGS/VSBYS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BEST CHC OF TSTMS WILL
OCCUR IN THE 22-02Z PERIOD. BRIEF BKN CIGS 060-070KFT AGL IF ONE
PASSES OVERHEAD...BUT VCTS WILL SUFFICE AT THIS TIME. TYPICAL
DIURNAL WIND PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 222 PM MDT WED JUN 17 2015
OVERALL THREAT WILL BE LOW TODAY FOR STORM TO PRODUCE FLASH
FLOODING...WITH THE STORMS STILL MOVING AT A FAIRLY DECENT RATE.
MAIN CHANGE TO THE HIGHLIGHTS WAS TO EXTEND THE FLOOD WARNING
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON...FOR THE SOUTH PLATTE IN EAST CENTRAL
PARK/SOUTHWESTERN DOUGLAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL JEFFERSON
COUNTIES...FURTHER DOWNSTREAM TO CHEESMAN RESERVOIR TO INCLUDE
ADDITIONAL CAMPGROUNDS IMPACTED BY FLOODWATERS. NO CHANGES TO THE
REST OF THE ONGOING FLOOD WARNINGS ALONG THE SOUTH PLATTE.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...COOPER
HYDROLOGY...COOPER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
335 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR THE IA/MN BORDER TO THE QUAD CITIES
AND THEN TO NORTHERN INDIANA. NORTH OF THE FRONT DEWPOINTS WERE IN
THE LOWER 60S (IN THE 50S IN WI) BUT TO THE SOUTH DEWS WERE WELL
INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE CWA WERE IN
THE 70S WHICH HAS BEEN HELD DOWN BY EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING INTO SW MN AND INTO WESTERN IA AND THEN
TO NW KS. MIDWEST MOSAIC RADAR LOOPS INDICATE A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OCCURING IN THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT
FROM CENTRAL MO TO WESTERN IL AND THEN INTO EASTERN IL. ELSEWHERE...
A FEW STRONGER STORMS WERE NOTED IN NORTHCENTRAL IOWA AND SE MN
WHERE SBCAPES WERE 2500 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WAS STRONG AT 50
KNOTS.
ACROSS THE DVN CWA DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER INSTABILITY WAS VERY
MINIMAL AND SHEAR IS WEAK AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THIS WAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATERS IN THE CWA WERE AROUND 1.5 INCHES WITH THE
OVER 2 INCH PWATS FROM TX TO SOUTHERN IL. TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL
WAS LOCATED IN THE DALLAS/FT. WORTH METROPLEX EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
FORECAST FOCUS ON CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TONIGHT...OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE VERY MUCH IN DISAGREEMENT WITH
REGARDS TO CONVECTIVE TRENDS. ECMWF IS ESSENTIALLY DRY WHILE THE
GFS IS THE WETTEST. THE NAM IGNITES THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN OUR
FAR SOUTH WHILE THE HI-RES HRRR MESO MODEL BRINGS WEAKENING
THUNDERSTORMS INTO OUR NW CWA THIS EVENING AND LEAVES THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT DRY. I WILL ESSENTIALLY BE TAKING A MIDDLE
OF THE ROAD APPROACH AND LEAVING POPS IN THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE.
FORCING/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK ALONG WITH
MINIMAL INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CWA AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL NEED TO
MENTION AT LEAST A SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED BUT THERE MAY BE
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS ESPECIALLY BEFORE
SUNSET. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NORTH TO
LOWER 70S SOUTH.
THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY PROBABLY ALONG
HIGHWAY 34 AS THE REMNANTS OF BILL TRACKS NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON. OUR NORTH WILL GRADUALLY SEE DRIER
AIR WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 50S DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL REMAIN IN THE JUICY AIRMASS
AS THE FRONT STALLS. AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY SO I WILL
MAINTAIN THE 40-50 POPS. THE BULK OF THE MODELS KEEP THE HEAVIEST
RAINS SOUTH OF THE DVN CWA. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL..NOW SHOWN TRACKING WELL TO THE
SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN MO INTO SOUTHERN IL THU NIGHT INTO FRI
NIGHT...WILL KEEP MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A QUIET WEATHER
REGIME FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. MORE ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS LATE
SATURDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS A FRONT DROPPING
SOUTH INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BECOMES STALLED OUT. THIS WILL
PROVIDE NEARLY DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
THURSDAY NIGHT...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER ALBERTA IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD SE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER
SHOT OF DRY EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WELL INTO EASTERN IA THROUGH
MIDDAY FRI. THE ONLY POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE ALONG
THE REMNANT SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT WASHES OUT FROM NORTHERN MO INTO
CENTRAL IL OVERNIGHT AND HAVE LOW POPS IN PLACE. ANY THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE LIMITED TO EARLY EVENING...ANTICIPATING THE VERY LOW MODEL
MUCAPES AND STABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE OVERNIGHT. SOMEWHAT
LIKE THIS MORNING...THE DRY AIR WITH DEWPOINTS LOWERING INTO THE 50S
OVER IL...WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO COOL INTO THE MID 50S NE TO
LOWER 60S SW. WITH AT LEAST HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER LIKELY...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 FRIDAY WITH
SURFACE WINDS BACKING TO THE SOUTH BY EVENING AS THE HIGH RETREATS
EASTWARD. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
SOUTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SOUTHERLY WINDS EDGE DEWPOINTS BACK
UPWARDS AND THE REMNANT WEAK CONVERGENT BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR CONVECTION.
SATURDAY...BILL DISSIPATES TO THE SE AS AN INCOMING FRONT AND
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH BECOME THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURES. STRONG THETAE ADVECTION FEEDING INTO THE REGION
IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AN MCS THAT IS LIKELY
TO PUSH THROUGH WITH THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY
POPS ARE MAINTAINED. HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS...WITH PW VALUES POSSIBLE
NEAR 2 INCHES...WILL BRING THE FIRST THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN BACK INTO
THE FORECAST. STRONG PREFRONTAL WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL SEND HIGHS
BACK INTO THE 80S WHILE DEWPOINTS LIKELY RETURN TO THE LOWER 70S.
THIS WILL LEAD TO UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING
WINDS WITH SEVERE STORMS AS OUTLINED IN THE SPC DAY 4 SEVERE OUTLOOK
15 PERCENT AREA CENTERED OVER EASTERN IA.
SUNDAY THROUGH WED...THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW HAVE BETTER AGREEMENT
DEPICTING THE WEST TO EAST FRONT...SUPPRESSED TO NORTHERN MO SUNDAY
NIGHT...LIFTING BACK NORTH AND BECOMING STALLED OUT ROUGHLY ALONG
HIGHWAY 30 BY TUE NIGHT. THE MODELS THEN DEPART WITH THE ECMWF
LIFTING THE BOUNDARY NORTH INTO MN AND SOUTHERN WI WHILE THE GFS IS
FURTHER SOUTH. EITHER WAY...WITH AN ACTIVE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
AND UPPER JET TRACK JUST TO THE NORTH...THE SETUP IS PRIME FOR AN
ACTIVE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES
THROUGHOUT. FOR NOW...HAVE HIGHER POPS IN THE NORTH CLOSER TO THE
MOST LIKELY FRONTAL POSITION. WITH AN OPEN FEED OF GULF MOISTURE...
SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE A DAILY THREAT. THIS WOULD
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF FLOODING ON AREA RIVERS
THAT WILL LIKELY HAVE RETURNED TO THEIR BANKS BY THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
IFR CONDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON GRADUALLY BECOMING VFR CIGS LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO EASTERN IA AFTER
05Z/18 BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE COVERAGE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FOR NOW HAVE INCLUDED A VCTS AT KCID/KDBQ THIS
EVENING. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN NORTHWEST WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. WIND SPEEDS SHOOULD BE LESS THAN 10
KNOTS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...HAASE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1207 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
AT 12Z WEDNESDAY A 500MB WESTERLY FLOW EXTENDED FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC TO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW
SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WERE OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR LOOP
AND 500MB UPPER AIR ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL WAS LOCATED
OVER NORTH TEXAS. A 700MB TO 500MB DEFORMATION ZONE LOCATED
NORTHWEST OF TD BILL AND EXTENDED FROM SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA TO WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS. 700MB TEMPERATURES AT 12Z WEDNESDAY WERE +8C AT
NORTH PLATTE, +10C AT DODGE CITY, 12C AT DENVER. AT THE SURFACE A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO EXTEND FROM EAST CENTRAL
COLORADO INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
OUTFLOW FROM THE CONVECTION IN NORTHEAST COLORADO EARLY THIS EVENING
HAD PUSHED AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS SCOTT CITY BUT SEEMS TO HAVE LOST ITS
STEAM. SURFACE OBS AT NORTON AND PHILLIPSBURG SHOW AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THAT AREA. WOULD THINK THAT BY
SUNRISE, THIS BOUNDARY WILL HAVE PUSHED SOUTH INTO THE HAYS AREA.
THE SHORT TERM HRRR AND RAP MODELS SHOW THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHING
AS FAR SOUTH AS A HAYS TO HUGOTON LINE BY LATE MORNING BEFORE
STARTING TO WASH OUT AND RETREAT NORTHWARD. NOT SURE THAT WE WILL
SEE ANY CONVECTION FIRING IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY GIVEN THE
WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES BUT WILL LEAVE ANY CHANCES FROM THAT OUT
OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. IN RESPONSE TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SHORT
WAVE, THE MODELS HINT AT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OFF OF
THE NORTHEAST COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND MOVING POSSIBLY MOVING INTO
FAR WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING. THE GOING FORECAST HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS. ANY STORMS THAT MAKE IT INTO WESTERN KANSAS SHOULD
DIE LATER THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. WILL KEEP SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS DRY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE MODELS KEEP
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. BILL CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES TODAY ACROSS THE BOARD AS
WARMER THE COLUMN CONTINUES TO WARM AND DEEP MIXING IS EXPECTED
TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
ON THURSDAY, THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL WILL BE LOCATED
OVER NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA, WITH UPSLOPE, SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW OVER WESTERN KANSAS. WEAK NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER WESTERN KANSAS, COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID 60S, WEAK CAPPING AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY LEAD
TO LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY OVER FAR
WESTERN KANSAS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED WEAK UPPER LEVEL WINDS, THESE
STORMS MAY NOT BE SEVERE, BUT SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW, TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. ON FRIDAY, LEE
TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP A LITTLE MORE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS, BUT
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY WEAK AND GIVEN THE
LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, ANYTHING MORE THAN JUST AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS NOT EXPECTED. HIGHS OUGHT TO REACH INTO THE MID
90S ALONG THE COLORADO STATE LINE, WITH UPPER 80S IN CENTRAL
KANSAS. SATURDAY WILL BE A WARMER DAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PROGRESSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, ALONG WITH
SURFACE TROUGHING OVER WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN`T BE RULED OUT ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE
SURFACE TROUGH. HIGHS SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE MID 90S, WITH SOME
UPPER 90S ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. THERE
IS A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT OVER WESTERN KANSAS. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST
TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
WHERE A LOW TO MID LEVEL DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WILL EXIST. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S AND POSSIBLY NEAR 100 OVER WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS, WITH MAINLY MID 90S FARTHER SOUTHEAST. LOWS WILL ONLY BE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN THE
VARIOUS MODELS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY MID
TO LATE NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHWEST KANSAS TO NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. EAST OF THIS
BOUNDARY THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY AT 10
KNOTS OR LESS TODAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON, HOWEVER CLOUD BASES BASED THE 12Z BUFR SOUNDINGS WILL
BE BETWEEN 3000 AND 7000FT AGL. TONIGHT THE LIGHT WINDS WILL BACK
MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP BASED ON A
SHALLOW LAYER OF NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE FORECAST BY THE 12Z NAM
BUFR SOUNDINGS. AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE PAST POOR PERFORMANCE OF
THE NAM WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY FOG IN
THE 18Z TAFS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 87 63 87 65 / 10 10 10 10
GCK 89 64 89 65 / 20 20 10 20
EHA 90 64 90 64 / 20 30 20 20
LBL 89 64 89 64 / 10 10 10 10
HYS 88 65 88 65 / 20 20 10 10
P28 86 67 86 68 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
141 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND NEAR A OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO REFLECT THE SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY AND ALSO UPDATED WITH LATEST OBS/TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1000 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
FOG HAS BURNED OFF IN MOST SPOTS THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROGRESSING NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES THIS MORNING.
THESE STORMS WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING HOURS. UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
NORTH AND ALSO UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THE NEAR TERM TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CLUSTER
OF STORMS THAT WILL LIKELY BRUSH THROUGH OUR NORTHERN MOST
COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALSO FINE TUNED THE T/TD GRIDS
PER THE LATEST...RESTORED...OBS AND TRENDS. THE FOG WAS LINGERED
FOR AN EXTRA HOUR...AS WELL. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT
TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY...WASHED OUT BOUNDARY
LYING OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH HIGH HUMIDITY AND MILD
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IS
LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTHWEST MOVING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT OF THE OHIO VALLEY...THOUGH DESTINED TO NEVER GET HERE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE SPAWNED OVER THE AREA DURING THE
DAY MONDAY THANKS IN PART TO THAT WEAK SFC BOUNDARY. WHILE THE
EASTERN PART OF THE STATE IS MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING...A
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL GOING STRONG OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION AND ACROSS THE BORDER INTO SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND ILLINOIS. LOCALLY...TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY UNIFORM
IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S ACROSS THE CWA WITH DEWPOINTS A
DEGREE OR SO LOWER IN MOST SPOTS WHILE WINDS ARE LIGHT. PATCHY
FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...IS NOTED AT JKL AND IN SOME OF THE WEB
CAMS...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT
AN ADVISORY OR SPS ATTM. BUILDING CLOUD COVER FROM THE NEARBY
FRONT AND STORMS TO THE WEST SHOULD HELP LIMIT ITS IMPACT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE PATTERN THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT THE SUB
TROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE OHIO RIVER BASICALLY
ITS NORTHERN EDGE. TO THE SOUTHWEST...THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES OF
FORMER TROPICAL STORM BILL ARE SHOWN MOVING FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS
TO THE OZARKS BY 00Z FRIDAY. ALONG THE TOP OF THE RIDGE A TRAIN
OF MINOR ENERGY WAVES WILL RIPPLE PAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THURSDAY
HELPING TO SUPPRESS THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE...WITH SOME
ASSISTANCE FROM BILL/S REMNANT CIRCULATION APPROACHING LATE IN
THE PERIOD. THIS FORECAST WILL BE DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE FEATURES...
THOUGH...SO HAVE FAVORED RADAR TRENDS AND THE LATEST HRRR FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST ALONG WITH THE HIGH RESOLUTION NAM12
FOR THE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY PORTIONS.
THE SAME INGREDIENTS THAT PRODUCED STORMS...A COUPLE OF WHICH WERE
SEVERE...YESTERDAY WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY AND THURSDAY TO FUEL
STORM DEVELOPMENT. THESE COMPONENTS ARE...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
IN THE AIR...PWS NEAR 2 INCHES...AND INSTABILITY WITH CAPES TO
3000 J/KG BY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...THE LAPSE RATES WILL BE A
BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
ACCORDINGLY...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR THE REST. ONE
FLY IN THE OINTMENT...THOUGH...WILL BE THE REMAINS OF THE ONGOING
STORMS TO THE WEST. THE HRRR TRIES TO TAKE THE CORE OF THESE OVER
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...BUT THAT PROGRESS IS IN DOUBT GIVEN RADAR
TRENDS AND THE NAM12 SOLUTION. WHAT DOES HAPPEN WITH THESE STORMS
WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT EFFECT ON OUR INSTABILITY LATER THIS
MORNING DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUN CAN GET IN HERE BEFORE THE
CLOUDS...OR REMAINING CONVECTIVE CELLS...FROM THE WEST MOVE INTO
THE JKL CWA. AT WORST...THIS COULD DELAY THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRONGER STORMS UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE THREAT
WILL CERTAINLY REMAIN. FOR THIS...WILL CONTINUE TO HIT IT IN THE
HWO AS WELL AS ADDING A HEADLINE TO THE WEB/PARTNER E-MAIL. THE
MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINS. THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIURNALLY WANE TONIGHT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AGAIN
ANTICIPATED IN THIS MUGGY ENVIRONMENT. ON THURSDAY...THE
CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS FAVORABLE FOR STORM FORMATION AS
THE FRONT LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WEAKENS A TAD. BOTH TODAY AND THURSDAY HIGHS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE IN THE LOW 90S...BUT CLOUDS AND CONVECTION WILL
LIMIT THE WORST OF THE HEAT...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN PARTS
OF THE CWA TODAY WHERE 85 DEGREES MAY BE A STRETCH.
ONCE AGAIN THE T/TD/WINDS GRIDS WERE STARTED OFF FROM THE
SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE
SUPERBLEND. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE IMPACT THAT THE CONVECTION WILL
HAVE ON THESE ELEMENTS CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL FOR THEIR
SPECIFICS. DID RAISE TEMPS A SMIDGEN ON THURSDAY WITH SLIGHTLY
LESS CONVECTION ANTICIPATED THAN TODAY. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP
CLOSEST TO THE HIGHER MET NUMBERS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM AS THE MAV APPEARS TO BE OVERLY DRY GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL OF THIS PATTERN AND PERHAPS THE COARSER RESOLUTION OF
ITS PARENT MODEL WHEN COMPARED TO THAT OF THE MET/S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
A VERY WET AND ACTIVE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD SEEMS TO BE ON TAP.
THE PERIOD BEGINS ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN OPEN SOUTHERLY FLOW IN
PLACE PUTTING EAST KENTUCKY IN A TROPICAL TYPE AIRMASS. HEADING INTO
FRIDAY...THE REMNANTS OF BILL SETS UP JUST TO THE WEST OVER THE MID
MS RIVER VALLEY POISED TO HEAD EAST UP THE OH VALLEY AND WITH IT...A
SUBSTANTIAL SHOT OF MOISTURE. THIS IS CONFIRMED WITH THE LATEST RUN
OF THE GFS AND EURO AND ALSO WITH THE SUPER BLEND. THE INFLUX OF
MOISTURE AND THE REMNANTS OF BILL...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BECOMING
AN OPEN WAVE...COUPLED WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE OH VALLEY
WILL BE A FOCUS FOR CONTINUED ROUNDS OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. PWATS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 1.75 TO 2.00
INCH RANGE.
BY MONDAY THE PATTERN TAKES ON A MORE DIURNAL DRIVEN MAX AND MIN
TIME FOR CONVECTION. MONDAY AND TUESDAYS ACTIVITY WILL DRIVEN BY A
COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE JET.
THESE WAVES WILL BRING A COUPLE OF WEAK COLD FRONTS THROUGH THE
AREA. HOWEVER...AS WELL...WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING INTO THE AREA...THIS PATTERN DOES FAVOR A
MCS TYPE PATTERN. AT THE SURFACE...THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
WARMER TEMPS WILL KEEP THE AREA IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS
AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S MAKING FOR A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS EACH DAY. CERTAINLY THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD RAISES A
CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND...POSSIBLY COMPLICATED
BY THE MCS PATTERN TO START THE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND NEAR A OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY PRODUCED FROM EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND
EAST. GIVEN THIS AND POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HAVE MENTIONED VCTS AT ALL THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WANE TONIGHT
AND FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT MOST SITES OVERNIGHT. RIGHT NOW
HAVE KEPT SITES MVFR VIS...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT LOWER VIS
ESPECIALLY IN SITES THAT ARE ABLE TO RECEIVE ANY PRECIP. WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL WEST TO SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...DJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
131 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
FOG HAS BURNED OFF IN MOST SPOTS THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROGRESSING NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES THIS MORNING.
THESE STORMS WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING HOURS. UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
NORTH AND ALSO UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THE NEAR TERM TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CLUSTER
OF STORMS THAT WILL LIKELY BRUSH THROUGH OUR NORTHERN MOST
COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALSO FINE TUNED THE T/TD GRIDS
PER THE LATEST...RESTORED...OBS AND TRENDS. THE FOG WAS LINGERED
FOR AN EXTRA HOUR...AS WELL. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT
TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY...WASHED OUT BOUNDARY
LYING OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH HIGH HUMIDITY AND MILD
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IS
LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTHWEST MOVING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT OF THE OHIO VALLEY...THOUGH DESTINED TO NEVER GET HERE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE SPAWNED OVER THE AREA DURING THE
DAY MONDAY THANKS IN PART TO THAT WEAK SFC BOUNDARY. WHILE THE
EASTERN PART OF THE STATE IS MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING...A
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL GOING STRONG OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION AND ACROSS THE BORDER INTO SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND ILLINOIS. LOCALLY...TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY UNIFORM
IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S ACROSS THE CWA WITH DEWPOINTS A
DEGREE OR SO LOWER IN MOST SPOTS WHILE WINDS ARE LIGHT. PATCHY
FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...IS NOTED AT JKL AND IN SOME OF THE WEB
CAMS...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT
AN ADVISORY OR SPS ATTM. BUILDING CLOUD COVER FROM THE NEARBY
FRONT AND STORMS TO THE WEST SHOULD HELP LIMIT ITS IMPACT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE PATTERN THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT THE SUB
TROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE OHIO RIVER BASICALLY
ITS NORTHERN EDGE. TO THE SOUTHWEST...THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES OF
FORMER TROPICAL STORM BILL ARE SHOWN MOVING FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS
TO THE OZARKS BY 00Z FRIDAY. ALONG THE TOP OF THE RIDGE A TRAIN
OF MINOR ENERGY WAVES WILL RIPPLE PAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THURSDAY
HELPING TO SUPPRESS THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE...WITH SOME
ASSISTANCE FROM BILL/S REMNANT CIRCULATION APPROACHING LATE IN
THE PERIOD. THIS FORECAST WILL BE DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE FEATURES...
THOUGH...SO HAVE FAVORED RADAR TRENDS AND THE LATEST HRRR FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST ALONG WITH THE HIGH RESOLUTION NAM12
FOR THE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY PORTIONS.
THE SAME INGREDIENTS THAT PRODUCED STORMS...A COUPLE OF WHICH WERE
SEVERE...YESTERDAY WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY AND THURSDAY TO FUEL
STORM DEVELOPMENT. THESE COMPONENTS ARE...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
IN THE AIR...PWS NEAR 2 INCHES...AND INSTABILITY WITH CAPES TO
3000 J/KG BY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...THE LAPSE RATES WILL BE A
BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
ACCORDINGLY...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR THE REST. ONE
FLY IN THE OINTMENT...THOUGH...WILL BE THE REMAINS OF THE ONGOING
STORMS TO THE WEST. THE HRRR TRIES TO TAKE THE CORE OF THESE OVER
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...BUT THAT PROGRESS IS IN DOUBT GIVEN RADAR
TRENDS AND THE NAM12 SOLUTION. WHAT DOES HAPPEN WITH THESE STORMS
WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT EFFECT ON OUR INSTABILITY LATER THIS
MORNING DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUN CAN GET IN HERE BEFORE THE
CLOUDS...OR REMAINING CONVECTIVE CELLS...FROM THE WEST MOVE INTO
THE JKL CWA. AT WORST...THIS COULD DELAY THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRONGER STORMS UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE THREAT
WILL CERTAINLY REMAIN. FOR THIS...WILL CONTINUE TO HIT IT IN THE
HWO AS WELL AS ADDING A HEADLINE TO THE WEB/PARTNER E-MAIL. THE
MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINS. THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIURNALLY WANE TONIGHT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AGAIN
ANTICIPATED IN THIS MUGGY ENVIRONMENT. ON THURSDAY...THE
CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS FAVORABLE FOR STORM FORMATION AS
THE FRONT LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WEAKENS A TAD. BOTH TODAY AND THURSDAY HIGHS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE IN THE LOW 90S...BUT CLOUDS AND CONVECTION WILL
LIMIT THE WORST OF THE HEAT...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN PARTS
OF THE CWA TODAY WHERE 85 DEGREES MAY BE A STRETCH.
ONCE AGAIN THE T/TD/WINDS GRIDS WERE STARTED OFF FROM THE
SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE
SUPERBLEND. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE IMPACT THAT THE CONVECTION WILL
HAVE ON THESE ELEMENTS CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL FOR THEIR
SPECIFICS. DID RAISE TEMPS A SMIDGEN ON THURSDAY WITH SLIGHTLY
LESS CONVECTION ANTICIPATED THAN TODAY. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP
CLOSEST TO THE HIGHER MET NUMBERS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM AS THE MAV APPEARS TO BE OVERLY DRY GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL OF THIS PATTERN AND PERHAPS THE COARSER RESOLUTION OF
ITS PARENT MODEL WHEN COMPARED TO THAT OF THE MET/S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
A VERY WET AND ACTIVE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD SEEMS TO BE ON TAP.
THE PERIOD BEGINS ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN OPEN SOUTHERLY FLOW IN
PLACE PUTTING EAST KENTUCKY IN A TROPICAL TYPE AIRMASS. HEADING INTO
FRIDAY...THE REMNANTS OF BILL SETS UP JUST TO THE WEST OVER THE MID
MS RIVER VALLEY POISED TO HEAD EAST UP THE OH VALLEY AND WITH IT...A
SUBSTANTIAL SHOT OF MOISTURE. THIS IS CONFIRMED WITH THE LATEST RUN
OF THE GFS AND EURO AND ALSO WITH THE SUPER BLEND. THE INFLUX OF
MOISTURE AND THE REMNANTS OF BILL...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BECOMING
AN OPEN WAVE...COUPLED WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE OH VALLEY
WILL BE A FOCUS FOR CONTINUED ROUNDS OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. PWATS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 1.75 TO 2.00
INCH RANGE.
BY MONDAY THE PATTERN TAKES ON A MORE DIURNAL DRIVEN MAX AND MIN
TIME FOR CONVECTION. MONDAY AND TUESDAYS ACTIVITY WILL DRIVEN BY A
COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE JET.
THESE WAVES WILL BRING A COUPLE OF WEAK COLD FRONTS THROUGH THE
AREA. HOWEVER...AS WELL...WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING INTO THE AREA...THIS PATTERN DOES FAVOR A
MCS TYPE PATTERN. AT THE SURFACE...THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
WARMER TEMPS WILL KEEP THE AREA IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS
AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S MAKING FOR A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS EACH DAY. CERTAINLY THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD RAISES A
CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND...POSSIBLY COMPLICATED
BY THE MCS PATTERN TO START THE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND NEAR A OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY PRODUCED FROM EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND
EAST. GIVEN THIS AND POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HAVE MENTIONED VCTS AT ALL THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WANE TONIGHT
AND FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT MOST SITES OVERNIGHT. RIGHT NOW
HAVE KEPT SITES MVFR VIS...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT LOWER VIS
ESPECIALLY IN SITES THAT ARE ABLE TO RECEIVE ANY PRECIP. WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL WEST TO SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...DJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
433 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN
CONUS/SRN CANADA. UPSTREAM...ONE SHORTWAVE IS EVIDENT OVER NRN MN
WHILE A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROF IS SWINGING SE THRU
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. WAVE OVER NRN MN HAS BEEN AIDING A PERSISTENT
AREA OF SHRA THAT HAS MOVED FROM NW WI EARLY THIS MORNING INTO WRN
UPPER MI THIS AFTN. THE CLOUD COVER OVER WRN UPPER MI HAS KEPT
INSTABILITY FROM DEVELOPING...SO THERE HAS BEEN NO THUNDER YET. VIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER TO THE S AND SW...
AND LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES MLCAPES HAVE INCREASED TO A
FEW HUNDRED J/KG INTO WCNTRL WI WITH THE 100J/KG ISOPLETH NOW NEAR
THE WI/MI BORDER. THAT INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH A WEAK SFC LOW PRES
OVER SRN MN AND TROF EXTENDING NE TOWARD KIWD HAS BECOME THE FOCUS
FOR DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HRS. WELL OFF TO
THE NW...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN SHORTWAVE TROF
EXTENDS FROM HUDSON BAY TO SE SASKATCHEWAN. SFC OBS/CANADIAN RADARS
SHOW SOME -SHRA/SPRINKLES WITHIN THE BAND OF CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING
FRONT. MORE RECENTLY...CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO FIRE ALONG THE
FRONT.
FIRST WAVE OVER NRN MN WILL SHIFT E ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES THIS
EVENING. MODELS HINT THAT ANOTHER SUBTLE WAVE WILL FOLLOW LATE
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE SWINGING SE
THRU NRN ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT THRU EARLY THU AFTN. HAVE LARGELY
UTILIZED RADAR TRENDS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HRS TO PUSH ONGOING SHRA
ASSOCIATED WITH FIRST SHORTWAVE ENE INTO NCNTRL UPPER MI BEFORE
DIMINISHING. NAM AND THE HIGH RES NAM WINDOW HAVE A PRETTY GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS PCPN...SO NAM OUTPUT WAS INCORPORATED AS WELL.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE CONVECTION DEVELOPING TO THE SW NEAR SRN
MN WEAK SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROF THAT EXTENDS TOWARD KIWD. SINCE
THIS CONVECTION IS LARGELY DRIVEN BY DAYTIME INSTABILITY...THIS PCPN
SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH AS IT LIFTS TOWARD THE FCST AREA TONIGHT.
PROBABLY WON`T COMPLETELY DISSIPATE GIVEN SOME CONTINUED FORCING
THRU THE NIGHT. SO...FCST WILL SHOW SCT/NMRS SHRA INTO WRN UPPER MI
DIMINISHING TO SCT WITH TIME EASTWARD. SINCE CLOUD COVER WILL
DOMINATE HEADING TO SUNSET...INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED
HERE...BUT IT STILL WARRANTS A MENTION OF THUNDER WITH BEST CHC FROM
KIWD TOWARD KIMT.
POTENTIAL FOR SCT SHOWERS/PERHAPS A TSTM WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ERN
FCST AREA THU MORNING ALONG JUST AHEAD OF THE FAIRLY STRONG COLD
FRONT PUSHING THRU THE AREA. AS IS THE CASE TODAY IN CANADA...THERE
MAY ALSO BE ISOLD -SHRA FOR A SHORT TIME FOLLOWING FROPA AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THU
AFTN WILL BRING DRIER AIR/CLEARING SKIES. IT WILL BE CHILLY ALONG
LAKE SUPERIOR THU AFTN WITH GRADIENT WIND OFF THE LAKE. LAKESIDE
LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF LONG FETCHES ACROSS THE LAKE WILL LIKELY SEE
AFTN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S/LWR 50S. AT THE HIGH END...MAX TEMPS
OVER FAR SCNTRL UPPER MI SHOULD REACH THE MID 70S. IT WILL ALSO BE A
BREEZY DAY BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E...DUE TO DECENT
PRES RISES/CAA AND 20-30KT WINDS AT 925MB.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WEAK SYSTEMS TO PASS
ACROSS THE AREA EVERY FEW DAYS. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST FOR THE LONG
TERM WILL GENERALLY HAVE AT LEAST SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EACH
DAY...NONE OF THE DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY SO MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY.
AFTER THE WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES BY ON THURSDAY...CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA...ACCOMPAINED BY VERY DRY
AIR WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AT 0.25 INCH THU NIGHT. THIS DRY
AIR COMBINED WITH DECOUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPS TO DROP WELL INTO THE 30S ACROSS MANY INTERIOR LOCATIONS WITH
SOME PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT FROST ADVISORIES
WILL BE NEEDED THU NIGHT BUT WILL LEAVE THIS DECISION TO FUTURE
FORECASTS. HOWEVER...PEOPLE IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR MAY NEED TO PREPARE TO COVER PLANTS WHICH ARE
SUCCEPTIABLE TO THE COLD THURSDAY NIGHT.
SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT DAY ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL. SOME WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY WHICH
COMBINED WITH THE SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH LOCATIONS
CLOSE TO THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE COOLER.
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. LATEST NWP SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE SLIGHTLY
SLOWER...WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...WILL
ELIMINATE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR THE FAR WEST FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THE BEST UPPER
FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL GENERALY REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. AS
SUCH...ANY PRECIPITAITON WILL LIKELY BE TIED TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THERE SEEMS LIKE AT LEAST THE
POSSIBLITY FOR SOME SUNSHINE ALLOWING FOR SOME POCKETS OF
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. IN FACT...THE NAM IS QUITE AGRESSIVE IN
SHOWING 1000+ J/KG MLCAPE VALUES SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST
HALF OF THE UPPER PENINSULA. IN FACT...EVEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
SUGGEST SOME MODEST INSTABILITY OF 500-1000 J/KG. WITH 50 KT MID-
LEVEL FLOW AND SOME DRYING ALOFT...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STRONGER
STORMS IF/WHERE POCKETS OF INSTABILITY DEVELOP. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE ONLY AROUND 6.1 C/KM.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON SATURDAY...WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE WEATHER TO BECOME QUIET AGAIN FOR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...WITH THE UPPER JET OVERHEAD AND
ANOTHER SUBTLE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE W-NW
FLOW...CANNOT RULE OUT A PASSING SHOWER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT.
WITH THE ZONAL W-NW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE EARLY
NEXT WEEK...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL. THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT A BAROCLINC ZONE WILL DEVELOP JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTN INTO MONDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
RAIN CHANCES ESPECAILLY CLOSER TO THE WI/MI BORDER AS IT CREEPS
NORTHWARD. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THIS BOUNDARY WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTH
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THOSE
DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
MOISTURE FROM AREA OF -SHRA THAT HAVE BEEN MOVING ACROSS WRN UPPER
MI SHOULD RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT KIWD THIS AFTN.
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME BRIEF IFR COULD OCCUR. WHILE KCMX
SHOULD BE VFR...SOME PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTN. AT KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTN.
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES TONIGHT. MORE SHRA MAY SPREAD ENE INTO THE
AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN COVERAGE/LOCATION. IN ADDITION...IF
CLOUDS BREAK TONIGHT...FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE AT KCMX/KIWD WITH IFR
OR EVEN LIFR POSSIBLE. COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THRU THE AREA THU
MORNING...BRINGING A SHIFT TO NW TO N WINDS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT
KCMX AND ESPECIALLY AT KSAW. MAY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS PERHAPS
IFR AROUND/JUST AFTER FROPA.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 433 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. EACH ONE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS.
AFTER LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT/THU MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY
GUST TO 20-25KT FOR A TIME OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR
THU...ESPECIALLY AT HIGH OBS PLATFORMS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THU
NIGHT/FRI MORNING AS HIGH PRES PASSES OVER THE AREA. AS THE HIGH
DEPARTS AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES...SE TO S WINDS WILL RAMP
UP FRI AFTN THRU SAT MORNING. WINDS MAY GUST TO 15-25KT FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING OVER CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE HIGHEST OBS
PLATFORMS WILL PROBABLY SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT. THE COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA SAT AFTN. SINCE THE HIGH PRES FOLLOWING THE
FRONT WILL BE WEAK...WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...UNDER 20KT FOR LATE SAT THRU SUN. THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL
LINGER INTO MON UNDER A WEAK PRES GRADIENT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
339 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
AT 20Z BROAD ZONAL FLOW WAS ESTABLISHED OVER MOST OF THE NORTHERN
CONUS WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED DIFFUSE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. MAIN JET STREAK WAS POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF
THE US/CANADIAN BORDER ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER STATES. A LEE SIDE
SURFACE LOW WAS NOTED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING...WITH A STALLED
FRONT EVIDENT ON SFC OBS AND SATELLITE STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST
COLORADO INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS...THEN NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA. LATEST OBS INDICATE THE FRONT IS BEGINNING TO CREEP
BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL SERVE A FOCAL POINT FOR
POTENTIAL CONVECTION OVER THE CWA TONIGHT. NORTH OF THE FRONT A
RELATIVELY HUMID AIRMASS WAS IN PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
JUST BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING. THE HRRR HAS ROUTINELY SHOWN SPORADIC CONVECTIVE
INITIATION WHERE IT CAN RESOLVE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DRAPED
OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS RATHER WEAK AT
THIS TIME SO AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE SPARSE AT BEST IF ANY
CONVECTION CAN FIRE. BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE LATE THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN
HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN WYOMING/MONTANA LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...THEN DROP SOUTHEAST AS AN ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF
STORMS ALONG THE CONVERGENT NOSE OF A STRENGTHENING LLJ.
EXPECTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT TO RESIDE
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT
SLOWLY MOVES NORTH. THE POTENTIAL WILL BE THERE FOR A FEW OF THE
STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS TONIGHT CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. LATEST RAP13 AND NAM12 SHOW 800MB
COMPUTED LI/S OF -8C TO -10C...ALONG WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND 40-50 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. STORMS WILL PUSH SOUTH
AND EAST AS THE LLJ VEERS EAST OVERNIGHT. SOME MODELS LINGER
CONVECTION IN THE AREA THROUGH 15Z THURSDAY...BUT THIS MAY BE A
LITTLE SLOW. LOWERED POPS TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LATE THURSDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH A LULL EXPECTED IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
OVER THE CWA AS THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING
IN A HUMID AIRMASS WILL PROMOTE STRONG DESTABILIZATION AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER
AT THIS TIME AREAL COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE ISOLATED WITH WEAK UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHT RISES AND THE LACK OF A WELL DEFINED FOCAL POINT FOR
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. MODELS SHOW THE BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR
SEVERE STORMS NORTH AND WEST OF CWA UNDERNEATH FASTER WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND CLOSER TO A SFC LOW IN NORTHERN WYOMING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT AS
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE
PLENTIFUL WITH PWATS ABOVE 1.25 INCHES WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING
POCKETS ABOVE 1.50 INCHES. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IS LIMITED.
BY FRIDAY THE WARM FRONT WILL NORTH INTO S DAKOTA WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDING OVER THE CWA. RIDGE RIDING SHORT WAVE WILL
FAVOR STORMS IN THE DAKOTAS WHICH MAY CLIP NORTHERN NEB...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH AT THIS TIME. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE CLIMBING. MORE SUMMER LIKE TEMPS EXPECTED WITH
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ANTICIPATED. ALSO WILL BE A MUGGY DAY AS
DEW POINTS LIKELY TO BE IN THE 60S.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA. CAP IS FAIRLY STRONG AND BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE NEB/S DAKOTA BORDER.
BY SAT NIGHT THE FRONT STALLS TO THE SOUTH OVER KS WHILE A SHORT
WAVE MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THE CAP AS THE GFS IS STRONGER AND LIMITS PRECIP
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHILE THE ECMWF IS COOLER AND STORMS
SPREAD FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST.
AFTER A COOL DOWN FOR THE WEEKEND. THE STALLED FRONT LIFTS BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE QUICKLY REBUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA AND TEMPS CLIMB BACK TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
TO MID 90S. RIDGE RIDING WAVES LOOK TO KEEP MAJORITY OF THE
ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE CWA...HOWEVER CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRAY
STORM OR TWO DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVING ONTO
THE HIGH PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE IS THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TONIGHT. HAVE
INCLUDED PROB30 GROUP FOR TS ACTIVITY AT BOTH KLBF AND KVTN TO
HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL. AT THIS POINT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHER ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA WHERE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
BEGUN TO CONSISTENTLY SHOW AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TRACKING SOUTHEAST LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1222 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
SAT IMAGERY SHOWS DECREASING TREND IN CLOUD COVER IS FASTER THAN
EXPECTED. SO THE SKY FCST WAS UPDATED THRU MIDDAY TO REFLECT THIS.
SHOULD BE M/SUNNY THIS AM.
EQUIPMENT: YOU MAY BE AWARE THAT OBS WERE MISSING FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. THIS WAS DUE TO FAA MAINTENANCE. OBS RETURNED AS OF 10Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
ALOFT: THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN OVER THE NRN USA
THRU DAWN TOMORROW...WITH A VERY LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE NRN
ROCKIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN WNW FLOW OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS.
SUBTROPICAL HIGHS WILL CONT OVER THE SW AND SE USA...WITH THE
REMNANTS OF BILL LIFTING N INTO OK.
SURFACE: THE POLAR FRONT WAS QUASI-STATIONARY ON THE SRN FRINGE
OF THE WESTERLIES AND EXTENDED FROM WY-NEB E INTO THE OH VALLEY.
THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY THRU TONIGHT...AND WILL BE
MODULATED/MODIFIED BY TSTM ACTIVITY.
NOW: THE REMNANTS OF A DECAYING MCS ARE MOVING THRU AT THIS TIME.
RAIN-COOLED OUTFLOW HAS OVERTAKEN THE ENTIRE FCST AREA. WE DID SEE
MULTIPLE GUSTS UP TO 43 MPH ACROSS FURNAS/HARLAN/FRANKLIN COUNTIES
12AM-2AM WHEN IT WAS MORE POTENT.
TODAY: DECREASING CLOUDS THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW
REGARDING TSTM REDEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO A LACK OF
SYNOPTIC FORCING.
THE 00Z 4KM WRF-NMM HAS AN EXCELLENT HANDLE ON WHAT IS GOING ON
NOW...IT`S JUST TOO SLOW BY 4 HRS. IT SUGGESTS THE BEST
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE S AND E OF THE FCST AREA...PROBABLY ALONG THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GENERATED BY THIS MORNING`S MCS. DEVELOPMENTS IN
THE RAIN- COOLED AIR OVER THE FCST AREA LOOK VERY
ISOLATED/MINIMAL...AND IF THERE IS NOT ENOUGH TSTM ACTIVITY TO
FORM A COMMON COLD POOL...WHAT LITTLE ACTIVITY FIRES SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. THE 06Z HRRR HAS A SIMILAR IDEA AT 21Z.
ENOUGH CLEARING TODAY SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY...
WITH MLCAPE 2000-2500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR 30-40 KTS...HIGHEST
OVER S-CNTRL NEB. LOW-LVL VEERING RESULTS IN 0-3 KM SRH OF 150
J/KG. THIS WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL CONVECTIVE MODE. SPC
HAS MOST OF THE FCST AREA OUTLOOKED IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR.
TONIGHT: IT ALL HINGES ON WHAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON. IF ONLY A
FEW ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE FCST AREA...THEY WILL
DIMINISH AND END MID-LATE EVE. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH DEVELOPMENTS
TO THE W. THE SIGNAL IS NOT GREAT...BUT CELL MERGERS COULD RESULT
IN AN MCS THAT COULD PROPAGATE INTO NEB. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW
GIVEN THE LACK OF MODEL QPF CLUSTERING AND LOW SREF QPF
PROBABILITIES.
GIVEN LOW FCST CONFIDENCE...POPS ARE NO HIGHER THAN 20% TODAY-
TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SUBTLE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING WILL BE NOTED
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE TO START THE LONG- TERM
FORECAST PERIOD AT 12Z THURSDAY...AND ALTHOUGH THIS RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST TO FINISH THE WEEK...THERE ARE ALSO
INDICATIONS OF ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS
DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SUBTLE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATION WILL
CLEAR THE AREA THURSDAY AND AS A RESULT...~20% POPS CONTINUE IN
THE FORECAST FOR THE MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
ALTHOUGH THIS PERTURBATION IS EXPECTED TO HAVE CLEARED OUR AREA BY
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THERE ALSO REMAIN INDICATIONS OF HIGH
PLAINS CONVECTION PERHAPS SUSTAINING ITSELF LONG ENOUGH TO IMPACT
FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY EVENING AND AS A
RESULT...~20% POPS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR FAR WEST 00-06Z FRIDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...THE FIRST UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA...THUS
ELIMINATING ANY APPRECIABLE OMEGA. THIS...AND THE PRESENCE OF A
HEALTHY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC CAPPING INVERSION EACH
AFTERNOON...RESULTS IN A POP-FREE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MORE INTO THE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY TIME PERIOD...ANOTHER ROUND OF MULTIPLE UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATIONS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FIRST
RIDGE COULD BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION AND AS A
RESULT...WENT AHEAD WITH 20-30% POPS ACROSS VARIOUS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST
NEXT TUESDAY AS THE SECOND UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA.
AS WAS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...RESPECTABLE BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE
...ALONG WITH VARYING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PERTURBATIONS...WILL PROMOTE VARYING
LEVELS OF POTENTIAL ENERGY FROM DAY TO DAY DURING THE LONG-TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING...ENERGY LEVELS
GENERALLY RANGING FROM 1000-2000J/KG ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED. GIVEN
THIS...WILL CONTINUE MENTIONING THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE HWO FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
EVENING. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AIR MASS EARLY
NEXT WEEK SUGGESTS STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER COULD RESULT SHOULD
CONVECTION DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL...BUT AT THIS TIME IT
IS TOO EARLY TO INTRODUCE ANY MENTION OF SEVERE WEATHER THAT FAR
INTO THE FUTURE.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS WILL PROMOTE WARM
WEATHER DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 80S AND 90S AND LOWS IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S. AT
THIS TIME THE WARMEST DAY APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
LIKELY CLIMBING INTO THE 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWA AND
PERHAPS NEARING THE CENTURY MARK ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
THESE TEMPERATURE READINGS...IF REALIZED...WOULD HELP PROMOTE HEAT
INDEX READINGS OF 100-102 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. NOT YET
READY TO INTRODUCE HEAT WORDING IN THE HWO FOR THIS WEEKEND...BUT
THIS MAY BE SOMETHING TO CONSIDER IN THE COMING DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
A FEW CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE CUMULUS AND ANY SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN
IN THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
THEY COULD MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE TERMINALS...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
IT.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
152 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTH LIFTS BACK NORTH WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM
BILL REMNANTS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
TRACKING A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS HEADING INTO THE HTS
AREA...BUT CURRENTLY IN A LULL RIGHT NOW IN TERMS OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CWA. NORTHWESTERN ZONES RECEIVING STRATIFORM RAIN
FROM AN OLD CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...AND THIS MAY AFFECT EARLY
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. MEANWHILE...SOUTHERN ZONES ARE GETTING
EXPOSURE TO SUN THIS MORNING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
00Z NAM NOT HANDLING THE WAVE COMING OUT OF THE MIDWEST VERY
WELL...SO RELIED MORE ON THE HRRR FOR POPS TODAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL SLOWLY RETURN NORTHWARD
TODAY. AM A BIT CONCERNED WITH POTENTIAL FOR WATER PROBLEMS...BUT
THE MORNING ARRIVAL OF THE FIRST WAVE WILL LIMIT HEATING.
ALSO...MUCH OF THE NORTHERN COUNTIES HAD A BREAK FROM HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS
SITUATION HOWEVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH STILL OVER THE SOUTHEAST US PLENTY OF
SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE HIGH ACROSS WEST
VIRGINIA. THIS WILL MEAN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
OCCUR WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS. EVEN WITH DECENT MODEL
AGREEMENT TIMING EACH FEATURE IS VERY DIFFICULT SO WENT WITH MORE OF
A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH.
WITH SUCH A TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE AND WHAT WILL ESSENTIALLY BE A
WEEK OF HIGH PWS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA EACH DAY BRINGS ON MORE OF A CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO. AT SOME POINT IN TIME A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS ON THURSDAY
FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT
RISK FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY.
THE LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES WITH
THIS. IN ADDITION THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT POSSIBLE WIND GUSTS
FOR THE MOUNTAINS. WITH SUCH SATURATED SOILS THIS COULD CAUSE SOME
TREES TO FALL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE REMNANTS OF WHAT WAS TROPICAL STORM BILL SHOULD BE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE START OF THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP
SKIES CLOUDY AND RAIN CHANGES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
START OF THE NEXT WEEK. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
PERIOD AS CONTINUED RAINFALL IS LIKELY IN THE PATH OF THIS SYSTEM.
THIS IS LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WILL MAKE SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR TIMING. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS NOW MOVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS.
HAVE SOME CLEARING OVER THE EASTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN OHIO.
THIS SHOULD GENERATE ROUND TWO OF THE CONVECTION TODAY WITH THE
HEATING TAKING PLACE IN THE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.
CONVECTION WILL BE HIT OR MISS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BECAUSE OF THIS...AMENDMENTS AND TEMPOS ARE
LIKELY TO BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST TODAY FOR TSRA.
GOING EASY ON THE FOG TONIGHT. THINK THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH CLOUD
COVER...AND SHOULD SEE SOME WIND OVER THE NORTHERN SITES. BEST
CHANCES FOR FOG WILL BE HTS AND CRW WHERE THE SKY HAS A BETTER
CHANCE TO CLEAR. AMOUNTS OF RAIN WILL ADD TO THE FOG EQUATION
TONIGHT.
MORE CONVECTION EXPECTED FROM MORNING ONWARD THURSDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONVECTION TIMING AND LOCATIONS WILL VARY.
FOG SET UP FOR TONIGHT IS NOT IN PLACE JUST YET. MAY NEED TO ADD A
LOW IFR STRATUS DECK LATER TONIGHT.
.AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF MORNING FOG WILL DEPENDS OF LOCATIONS THAT
GET RAIN AND CAN CLEAR OUT AT NIGHT.
&&
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/RPY/JMV
NEAR TERM...RPY/26
SHORT TERM...FB
LONG TERM...JSH/JMV
AVIATION...26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
353 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HOT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SPREADING OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES
WILL RESULT IN WAVY WEATHER FOCUSING BOUNDARIES TO LINGER ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO NEXT WEEK. EXPECT
PERIODS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR IN THIS PATTERN WITH AN
ENHANCED RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF BILL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
RADAR LOOPS SHOWS MORE PCPN ALOFT THAN IS ACTUALLY REACHING THE
GROUND WHICH HAS BEEN A LITTLE MISLEADING IF LOOKING AT A
COMPOSITE RADAR. AREA OF HIGHEST DBZ COVERS ONLY THE SWRN 1/3 OF
THE CWA WHERE HIGHEST POPS ARE PAINTED. HRRR AND OTHER MODEL
GUIDANCE WAS TOO SLOW WITH THE EWD MVMT OF PCPN INTO SWRN PA. THIS
IS NOT SURPRISING GIVEN FAST/LOW AMPLITUDE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
CONSISTING OF WEAK SHORTWAVES TRACKING EWD ALONG SRN EDGE OF
WESTERLIES...ALIGNED WITH DEEP MSTR/PWS POOLED ALONG WAVY EAST-
WEST ORIENTED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ESSENTIALLY ALONG THE OH
RIVER.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER INDIANA IS PROGGED TO FOLLOW A
SIMILAR PATH THROUGH SRN OH AND BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF WAA
SHOWERS/ELEVATED CONVECTION TO SOUTH CENTRAL/SERN PA LATER
TONIGHT. MODEL DATA GENERALLY AGREES ON THIS BUT TIMING MAY BE AN
ISSUE. THE HEAVIEST QPF SHOULD STAY TO THE SOUTH AS QPF TENDS TO
BE FCST TO FAR NORTH BY THE MODELS IN THESE TYPES OF FLOW REGIMES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE FCST FOR DAY2/THURS STILL LOOKS SOMEWHAT MESSY WITH LEFTOVER
CLOUDS/PCPN EARLY IN THE DAY AND NEARBY WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PIVOTING ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM SUGGESTS MUCH OF THE CWA WILL
BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE BY THE AFTERNOON AS MORNING PCPN ENDS
AND CLOUD BREAKS DEVELOP. PORTIONS OF ERN PA COULD REMAIN
CLOUDY/STABLE WITH NAM LI PROGS STRONGLY POSITIVE FROM NJ INTO THE
POCONOS. THAT SHOULD KEEP TSTM RISK CONFINED TO WRN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA.
A MID-LVL TROUGH CROSSING SERN CANADA WILL PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT
ACROSS SRN LWR MI INTO WRN NY BY THUR NGT. AN AXIS OF HI PWS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH SFC MID-60S DEWPOINTS
IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. ML CAPE SHOULD REMAIN MODEST GIVEN
WEAK MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND MULTI-LAYER CLOUDS. BELT OF STRONGER
MID-LVL WESTERLIES SHOULD EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR
AND PROMOTE RISK FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS OF BETTER HEATING/CLOUD BREAKS WHERE LLVL LAPSE RATES
WILL STEEPEN. SPC HAS CUT BACK A LITTLE ON THE SLGT RISK CATEGORY
ACROSS THE NW ALLEGHENIES. DRIER AIR SHOULD START TO WORK INTO
NWRN PA LATE THUR NGT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE SFC COLD FRONT
PUSHES SWD TOWARD THE MASON DIXON LINE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE QUESTION FOR FRIDAY BEGINS WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT.
IF IT HAS SWEPT THROUGH THE STATE THE DAY WILL BEGIN DRY WITH
SUNSHINE. SOME MODELS MOVE IT THROUGH SLOWER WITH SOME LINGERING
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. BY AFTERNOON AND EVENING A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES OVER THE MID ATLC REGION. NORTHERN
PA WILL BE COOL AND DRY INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND SEASONABLE
ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE HIGH CENTER SLIPS EAST OFF THE COAST
SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY OVERNIGHT AS REMANTS
FROM TD BILL MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE EXACT TIMING AND TRACK
OF THE STORM AND HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME BUT THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. IF RAINS FROM TD BILL ARE STEADY SPEAD OVER 12 TO
24 HOURS THEN THE RAIN WILL HELP MITIGATE A DROUGHT WATCH OVER
PORTIONS OF PA. BUT IF HEAVY RAINS COME IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME
SUCH AS A FEW HOURS...THEN FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING COULD BE A
CONCERN PARTICULARLY FOR SMALLER STREAMS. MODELS SHOW THE REMNANTS
OF BILL INTERACTING WITH A FRONT ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY AND
MOVING OFF THE COAST MONDAY. HOWEVER THERE APPEARS TO BE DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS ON WHETHER THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION OUT OR HANGS UP
AGAIN ACROSS THE STATE WITH ANOTHER WITH ANOTHER WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTN VISIBLE STLT LOOPS SHOWS MULTI-LAYER CLOUDS CONTINUING TO
OVERSPREAD THE AIRSPACE FROM THE OH VLY. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO REMAIN INVOF JST/AOO AND PERHAPS UNV THRU LATE AFTN AND COULD
EXTEND FURTHER EAST TWD MDT. PCPN IS VERY LGT FALLING OUT OF MID
LVL CLOUD DECK WITH BASES AROUND 10KFT AGL. CONDS SHOULD REMAIN
VFR THIS EVE WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. ALL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING MVFR/IFR/LIFR CIGS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AIRSPACE WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN HIGH LLVL MSTR AND
LGT/SOUTH/EAST LLVL FLOW. LOW CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE INTO
THURS AFTN WITH THE MAIN TSTM RISK CENTERED OVER THE FAR WRN
AIRSPACE IN ZOB SECTOR.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...BCMG VFR.
SAT-MON...VFR/MVFR WITH PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA. LOCALLY +RA PSBL SAT
NGT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...WATSON
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
258 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HOT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SPREADING OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES
WILL RESULT IN WAVY WEATHER FOCUSING BOUNDARIES TO LINGER ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO NEXT WEEK. EXPECT
PERIODS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR IN THIS PATTERN WITH AN
ENHANCED RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF BILL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR LOOPS SHOWS MORE PCPN ALOFT THAN IS ACTUALLY REACHING THE
GROUND WHICH HAS BEEN A LITTLE MISLEADING IF LOOKING AT A
COMPOSITE RADAR. AREA OF HIGHEST DBZ COVERS ONLY THE SWRN 1/3 OF
THE CWA WHERE HIGHEST POPS ARE PAINTED. HRRR AND OTHER MODEL
GUIDANCE WAS TOO SLOW WITH THE EWD MVMT OF PCPN INTO SWRN PA. THIS
IS NOT SURPRISING GIVEN FAST/LOW AMPLITUDE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
CONSISTING OF WEAK SHORTWAVES TRACKING EWD ALONG SRN EDGE OF
WESTERLIES...ALIGNED WITH DEEP MSTR/PWS POOLED ALONG WAVY EAST-
WEST ORIENTED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ESSENTIALLY ALONG THE OH
RIVER.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER INDIANA IS PROGGED TO FOLLOW A
SIMILAR PATH THROUGH SRN OH AND BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF WAA
SHOWERS/ELEVATED CONVECTION TO SOUTH CENTRAL/SERN PA LATER
TONIGHT. MODEL DATA GENERALLY AGREES ON THIS BUT TIMING MAY BE AN
ISSUE. THE HEAVIEST QPF SHOULD STAY TO THE SOUTH AS QPF TENDS TO
BE FCST TO FAR NORTH BY THE MODELS IN THESE TYPES OF FLOW REGIMES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE FCST FOR DAY2/THURS STILL LOOKS SOMEWHAT MESSY WITH LEFTOVER
CLOUDS/PCPN EARLY IN THE DAY AND NEARBY WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PIVOTING ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM SUGGESTS MUCH OF THE CWA WILL
BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE BY THE AFTERNOON AS MORNING PCPN ENDS
AND CLOUD BREAKS DEVELOP. PORTIONS OF ERN PA COULD REMAIN
CLOUDY/STABLE WITH NAM LI PROGS STRONGLY POSITIVE FROM NJ INTO THE
POCONOS. THAT SHOULD KEEP TSTM RISK CONFINED TO WRN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA.
A MID-LVL TROUGH CROSSING SERN CANADA WILL PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT
ACROSS SRN LWR MI INTO WRN NY BY THUR NGT. AN AXIS OF HI PWS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH SFC MID-60S DEWPOINTS
IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. ML CAPE SHOULD REMAIN MODEST GIVEN
WEAK MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND MULTI-LAYER CLOUDS. BELT OF STRONGER
MID-LVL WESTERLIES SHOULD EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR
AND PROMOTE RISK FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS OF BETTER HEATING/CLOUD BREAKS WHERE LLVL LAPSE RATES
WILL STEEPEN. SPC HAS CUT BACK A LITTLE ON THE SLGT RISK CATEGORY
ACROSS THE NW ALLEGHENIES. DRIER AIR SHOULD START TO WORK INTO
NWRN PA LATE THUR NGT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE SFC COLD FRONT
PUSHES SWD TOWARD THE MASON DIXON LINE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECAST LOOKS RATHER GOOD.
MAIN CHANGE WAS TO CUT POPS BACK FOR FRIDAY AFT INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...GIVEN LACK OF SFC CONVERGENCE...TIME OF DAY...AND
THAT FLOW IS MAINLY FROM THE WEST...AND GIVEN A SIMILAR
SITUATION YESTERDAY WITH THE FLOW BEING SIMILAR...HARD TO
SEE MUCH GOING ON AFT FRIDAY MORNING.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
A MID LVL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN CANADA WILL DRIVE
A COLD FRONT THRU THE AREA THUR NGT WHICH SHOULD TEMPORARILY
SUPPRESS THE HIGH PW AXIS SOUTH OF THE PA/MD LINE ON FRIDAY. THE
PATTERN GENERALLY EVOLVES IN A SIMILAR FASHION OVER THE WEEKEND AS
DEEP MSTR /ASSOCD WITH THE REMNANTS OF BILL/ RETURNS AND BRINGS A
LOCALLY HEAVY RAFL THREAT. ANOTHER CANADIAN SHORTWAVE PUSHES A
COLD FRONT THRU THE AREA AND DRIES THINGS OUT AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF WET/DRY PERIODS IS AVG AND
SUBJECT TO CHANGE ESP LATER IN THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTN VISIBLE STLT LOOPS SHOWS MULTI-LAYER CLOUDS CONTINUING TO
OVERSPREAD THE AIRSPACE FROM THE OH VLY. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO REMAIN INVOF JST/AOO AND PERHAPS UNV THRU LATE AFTN AND COULD
EXTEND FURTHER EAST TWD MDT. PCPN IS VERY LGT FALLING OUT OF MID
LVL CLOUD DECK WITH BASES AROUND 10KFT AGL. CONDS SHOULD REMAIN
VFR THIS EVE WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. ALL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING MVFR/IFR/LIFR CIGS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AIRSPACE WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN HIGH LLVL MSTR AND
LGT/SOUTH/EAST LLVL FLOW. LOW CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE INTO
THURS AFTN WITH THE MAIN TSTM RISK CENTERED OVER THE FAR WRN
AIRSPACE IN ZOB SECTOR.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...BCMG VFR.
SAT-MON...VFR/MVFR WITH PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA. LOCALLY +RA PSBL SAT
NGT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
107 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HOT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SPREADING OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES
WILL RESULT IN WAVY WEATHER FOCUSING BOUNDARIES TO LINGER ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO NEXT WEEK. EXPECT
PERIODS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR IN THIS PATTERN WITH AN
ENHANCED RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF BILL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONTINUED TO ADJUST POPS UPWARD ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS INTO
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL MTNS FOR THIS AFTN BASED ON THE LATEST UPSTREAM
RADAR TRENDS. MAY STILL NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH. HRRR AND OTHER MODEL
GUIDANCE ARE TOO SLOW WITH THE EWD MVMT OF LGT/MOD PCPN OVER SW
PA. THIS IS NOT SURPRISING GIVEN SYNOPTIC RING-OF-FIRE TYPE
PATTERN CONSISTING OF WEAK SHORTWAVES TRACKING EWD ALONG SRN EDGE
OF WESTERLIES ALIGNED WITH DEEP MSTR POOLED ALONG WAVY WEST-EAST
ORIENTED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ESSENTIALLY ALONG THE OH
RIVER.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER IL/IN IS PROGGED TO FOLLOW A
SIMILAR PATH THROUGH SRN OH AND BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF MAINLY
STRATIFORM SHOWERS ALONG WITH CHC FOR SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL PA LATER TONIGHT. MODEL DATA GENERALLY AGREES
ON THIS BUT TIMING MAY BE AN ISSUE. THE HEAVIEST QPF SHOULD STAY
TO THE SOUTH FOLLOWING AXIS OF BETTER INSTABILITY INTO SRN MD/VA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE FCST FOR DAY2/THURS STILL LOOKS SOMEWHAT MESSY WITH LEFTOVER
CLOUDS/PCPN EARLY IN THE DAY NEARBY WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PIVOTING ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM SUGGESTS MUCH OF THE CWA WILL
BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE BY THE AFTERNOON AS MORNING PCPN ENDS
AND CLOUD BREAKS DEVELOP. PORTIONS OF ERN PA COULD REMAIN
CLOUDY/STABLE WITH NAM LI PROGS STRONGLY POSITIVE FROM NJ INTO THE
POCONOS. THAT SHOULD KEEP TSTM RISK CONFINED TO WRN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA.
THAT SAID...A MID-LVL TROUGH CROSSING SERN CANADA WILL PUSH A SFC
COLD FRONT ACROSS SRN LWR MI INTO WRN NY BY THUR NGT. AN AXIS OF
HI PWS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH SFC
MID-60S DEWPOINTS IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. ML CAPE SHOULD
REMAIN MODEST GIVEN WEAK MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND MULTI-LAYER
CLOUDS. BELT OF STRONGER MID-LVL WESTERLIES SHOULD EVENTUALLY
OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR AND PROMOTE RISK FOR A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE WIND GUSTS ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF BETTER HEATING/CLOUD
BREAKS WHERE LLVL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN. SPC HAS MAINTAINED A
SLGT RISK CATEGORY ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND NW
ALLEGHENIES. DRIER AIR SHOULD START TO WORK INTO NWRN PA LATE THUR
NGT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES SWD TOWARD
THE MASON DIXON LINE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECAST LOOKS RATHER GOOD.
MAIN CHANGE WAS TO CUT POPS BACK FOR FRIDAY AFT INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...GIVEN LACK OF SFC CONVERGENCE...TIME OF DAY...AND
THAT FLOW IS MAINLY FROM THE WEST...AND GIVEN A SIMILAR
SITUATION YESTERDAY WITH THE FLOW BEING SIMILAR...HARD TO
SEE MUCH GOING ON AFT FRIDAY MORNING.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
A MID LVL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN CANADA WILL DRIVE
A COLD FRONT THRU THE AREA THUR NGT WHICH SHOULD TEMPORARILY
SUPPRESS THE HIGH PW AXIS SOUTH OF THE PA/MD LINE ON FRIDAY. THE
PATTERN GENERALLY EVOLVES IN A SIMILAR FASHION OVER THE WEEKEND AS
DEEP MSTR /ASSOCD WITH THE REMNANTS OF BILL/ RETURNS AND BRINGS A
LOCALLY HEAVY RAFL THREAT. ANOTHER CANADIAN SHORTWAVE PUSHES A
COLD FRONT THRU THE AREA AND DRIES THINGS OUT AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF WET/DRY PERIODS IS AVG AND
SUBJECT TO CHANGE ESP LATER IN THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EARLY AFTN VISIBLE STLT LOOPS SHOWS MULTI-LAYER CLOUDS CONTINUING
TO OVERSPREAD THE AIRSPACE FROM THE OH VLY. RADAR TRENDS STRONGLY
FAVOR SHOWER ACTIVITY REACHING JST/AOO BY 18Z AND COULD EXTEND
FURTHER EAST BY LATER IN THE AFTN. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
12Z TAFS WITH THE 15Z INTERMEDIATE UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR QUICKER
ADVANCEMENT OF LGT PCPN. CONDS SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY VFR WITH
CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. ALL GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING MVFR/IFR/LIFR CIGS ACROSS THE AIRSPACE FROM LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN HIGH LLVL
MSTR AND LGT/EASTERLY LLVL FLOW. LOW CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE
INTO THURS AFTN WITH MAIN TSTM RISK OVER THE WRN AIRSPACE/ZOB
SECTOR.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...VFR.
FRI NGT-SUN...VFR/MVFR WITH PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
223 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2015
.DISCUSSION...
Isolated showers have developed over the area this afternoon on
the backside of Tropical Cyclone Bill which is now about to cross
the Red River into OK. The majority of this activity will stay in
the eastern Permian Basin before diminishing after sunset. As Bill
lifts northeast, an upper ridge will try to build east across the
Southern Plains. Before it does so, our region will remain in weak
northerly mid level flow. If thunderstorms form over the TX
Panhandle or NE NM later this afternoon or Thursday they will move
south and may make it to the area during the overnight hours. Both
the HRRR and WRF-NMM show a complex of showers and storms moving
across eastern NM and W TX overnight. Rain chances diminish Friday
into the weekend as the upper ridge takes hold on the area. Will
need to monitor the strength of the ridge as recent models have
shown a weakness/inverted trough developing over South Texas and
slowly drifting it west. This solution could bring a few showers
and storms back to the area from the east late in the weekend into
next week.
Much warmer conditions are expected tomorrow as mid level
temperatures increase quite a bit. Expect highs to be about 5 to 10
degrees warmer than today. Temperatures will moderate somewhat into
the weekend as easterly flow sets up along with abundant low level
moisture. If we see the inverted trough move across the area early
next week, high temperatures may struggle to get out of the 80s!
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 67 93 68 91 / 20 10 10 10
BIG SPRING TX 68 93 71 92 / 10 10 10 10
CARLSBAD NM 68 97 69 95 / 20 20 20 10
DRYDEN TX 71 94 71 92 / 10 10 10 10
FORT STOCKTON TX 68 92 68 92 / 10 10 10 10
GUADALUPE PASS TX 67 92 66 89 / 20 20 20 10
HOBBS NM 64 91 64 90 / 20 20 10 10
MARFA TX 59 90 58 88 / 10 20 20 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 67 94 69 92 / 20 10 10 10
ODESSA TX 68 93 70 92 / 20 10 10 10
WINK TX 69 97 70 95 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
70/29
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
112 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2015
.DISCUSSION...
Please see the 17/18Z aviation forecast discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
Ceilings have (finally) lifted to VFR across area terminals. We
expect VFR conditions to persist across area terminals through 18/18Z.
Light northeasterly winds will gradually veer overnight to the
southeast and remain under 10 knots. Although area soundings
suggest convective initiation (CI) is imminent, we`re also seeing drier
mid-level air being drawn cyclonically around the western
semicircle of TD "BILL", now approaching the Dallas/Ft. Worth
Metroplex. This dry air should serve to erode moist updrafts and
limit convection to isolated at best through the afternoon hours.
Another round of convection overnight is being hinted by convection-
allowing models, specifically the HRRR (see SPC`s HRRR web browser
at http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/hrrr for a summary of convective-
related HRRR products. The dProg/dt feature is very useful!). Scattered
thunderstorms, most likely sourced off the Raton Mesa, are forecast
by the HRRR, the Texas Tech WRF (located at the following URL:
http://www.atmo.ttu.edu/bancell/real_time_WRF/ttuwrfhome.php), and
to some extent the NSSL WRF (http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/wrf/newsite/)
to translate south across eastern New Mexico overnight, where
favorable conditions exist for sustained elevated convection.
These storms may impact KCNM, KHOB, and KINK a few hours before
sunrise Thursday, with attendant MVFR ceilings/visibilities, gusty
winds, and brief heavy rain. Right now, confidence in timing is
not sufficiently high to include in the TAFs for these terminals;
however, we`ll keep watch on this and adjust the forecasts as
needed.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
70
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1256 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. A WEAK FRONT OVER THE AREA WILL
OSCILLATE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND AND BE THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY INTERACT
WITH MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL TO
BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1005 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
WEAK FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AS DEPICTED BY A RATHER SHARP GRADIENT OF NW TO SE ORIENTED
LOW LEVEL THETA-E OVER THE NORTH/NE ATTM. ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY INCLUDING THE BLUE RIDGE...SEEING QUITE A BIT OF MID
CLOUD CANOPY WITH BREAKS OVER THE FAR WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT
IMPULSE ALOFT MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST. THIS FEATURE THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS MODELS STRING IT EAST JUST NORTH OF THE
REGION LATER ON.
HOWEVER DEGREE OF ORGANIZATION APPEARS KEY TO WHETHER OR NOT MUCH
OF THE AREA SEES JUST SCATTERED COVERAGE AIDED BY OROGRAPHICS/DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING ONCE THE MID DECK ERODES OR DOES A COMPLEX ORGANIZE AND
SLIDE SE ALONG THE FRONT/THETA-E GRADIENT ESPCLY LATER ON. MUCH OF
THE LATEST GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR TEND TO KEEP A MORE CLUSTERED/BANDED
SCENARIO WITH FOCUS EVENTUALLY TRENDING BACK TO ANOTHER UPSTREAM
WAVE IN THE OHIO VALLEY LATER. THINK THIS MAY BE SOMEWHAT OVERDONE
GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR LATER STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG OLD OUTFLOW FROM
THE TAIL OF THE CONVECTION PASSING THROUGH NE KY ATTM...AND SPILL
SE INTO THE WEST WHERE HEATING AND FORECAST/MODIFIED CAPES OF AROUND
2K J/KG APPEAR LIKELY. THIS STILL PUTS THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE
NW/WEST WHERE BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELYS A BIT SOONER BEFORE UNFOLDING
CONVECTION TO THE SE ESPCLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY THIS EVENING
IF SOME SORT OF MCS DOES EVOLVE PER NEW NAM. INCREASING WIND FIELDS
ALOFT PER 30+ KT UNIDIRECTIONAL WESTERLY JET WOULD SUPPORT MORE OF
A SEVERE THREAT THAN IN RECENT DAYS WITH STRONG WINDS THE MAIN
THREAT IF CAN GET ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND DRYING ALOFT TO SUPPORT
HIGHER DCAPES LATER ON.
HIGH TEMPS APPEAR A BIT COOLER TODAY GIVEN CLOUDS AT THE ONSET AND
THE WEAK FRONT OVER PARTS OF THE REGION. HOWEVER WOULD NOT TAKE
MUCH SUN TO PUNCH READINGS BACK INTO THE 90S EAST...AND 80S WEST
SO ONLY TRIMMED HIGHS BACK A CAT OR SO NORTH/NE AND ACTUALLY
RAISED A FEW DEGREES SOUTH OF THE FRONT OVER THE SE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 500 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN TODAY IS FOR POTENTIAL MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...MCS...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE FORECAST
AREA...ESP THE VIRGINIAS...DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL VIRGINIA...WEST THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS FRONT IS POSITIONED ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH WHICH IS ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY WILL SERVE AS A PATH FOR WHICH
ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION WILL FOLLOW.
OUR FORECAST AREA IS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STRONGER
WESTERLIES ALOFT...AND RIGHT ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SURFACE HIGH. THE SURFACE FRONT IS VERY CLOSE TO OUR NORTHERN CWA
BORDER AND IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTH TO ALONG THE I-64
CORRIDOR...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE HWY 460 CORRIDOR BY
THIS EVENING. THIS IS PROBLEMATIC IN THAT IT PUTS US ON THE
RECEIVING END OF ANY ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION THAT MAY MOVE
DOWNSTREAM OR DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
MODELS SUGGEST THE OUTFLOW FROM ONGOING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE FRONT
TODAY...STORMS REDEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON.
CONCERN IS THAT TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS
WILL COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING WHEN CAPE WILL BE AT A MAXIMA.
AS SUCH...THINK STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ARE LIKELY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DAMAGING WINDS. A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK...MAIN THREAT WINDOW 4PM-10PM.
TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE DOWN A FEW DEGREES COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER. IN SPITE OF THE ONE OR TWO
DEGREE REPRIEVE...IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM AND HUMID WITH
NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
WILL START THURSDAY MORNING OFF POTENTIALLY WITH THE REMNANTS OF A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX EXITING OUR AREA TO THE EAST...WHILE WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH WILL BRING WITH IT
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDFLOW WHICH WILL LIMIT AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO ISOLATED/MAYBE WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY...WITH
BETTER CHANCES OVER THE MOUNTAINS. INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE
MODEST...SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY STRONG STORM INTENSITY.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN FOR FRIDAY AS A COLD
FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO POP UP DURING LATE MORNING
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN PULSY FASHION. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE EVENING AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES EAST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER WHILE
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE TOWARD OUR AREA. WITH BETTER
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...MAY SEE STORMS SOLIDIFY INTO A LINE AS THEY
PASS THROUGH OUR AREA...AND DESPITE THE LACK OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STORMS BECOME SEVERE.
THE MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY WILL PUSH EAST OF OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...LEAVING ONLY LINGERING SHOWER INTO DAWN SATURDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT BACKDOORS ITS WAY IN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
WINDFLOW WILL NOT TAKE LONG TO SHIFT SOUTHERLY AGAIN ACROSS OUR AREA
AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL GET CAUGHT UP IN THE
WESTERLY FLOW AND SWING SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...
ALTHOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DIFFERENCE IN WHERE THE
REMNANTS WILL TRACK. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CARRIED QUICKLY EAST THROUGH
THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS THE PLUME OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH 2.0+ INCH PWATS ENCOUNTERS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER COMPARED TO
EARLIER IN THE WEEK AND CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK...RANGING FROM THE MID 80S WEST TO THE LOW/MID 90S
EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
CONVECTION LOOKS TO BECOME MORE DIURNAL WITH A TRAILING TROUGH AXIS
CROSSING THE REGION SUNDAY AND AHEAD OF A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM COOL
FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON. WEAKNESS OF BOTH FEATURES SUGGEST MAINLY LOW
END CHANCE POPS WITH THE FRONT POSSIBLY DROPPING THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW THE FRONT TUESDAY PERHAPS
BRINGING A BIT DRIER AIR BUT AT LEAST STILL THE NEED FOR SLIGHT TO
CHANCE POPS WITH POTENTIAL FOR AN IMPULSE TO DROP IN FROM THE NW
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OTRW CONTINUED PERSISTENCE WITH HIGHS 80S WEST
AND LOW/MID 90S EAST...EXCEPT A FEW DEGREES COOLER PER CLOUDS/SHRA
SATURDAY...AND AGAIN BEHIND THE WEAK BOUNDARY ON TUESDAY...BUT
LIKELY HOTTER SUNDAY WITH SINKING MOTION/DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE
BILL REMNANT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
EARLY MID DECK CONTINUING TO FADE TO MORE OF A SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CU FIELD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN OLD
UPSTREAM OUTFLOW BAND APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. INCREASING
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD LEAD TO MORE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON WITH ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF
STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE FOR PERIODS OF MVFR TO
IFR ESPCLY ACROSS THE VA/WEST VA LOCATIONS WHERE WILL CARRY EITHER
A PREVAILING SHRA OR TEMPO GROUP FOR SHOWERS AND STRONGER STORMS
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. STORMS MAY TEND TO ORGANIZE AND SPILL
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
MUCH OF THIS AFFECTING THE KBCB-KROA-KLYH CORRIDOR. SINCE ALREADY
RUNNING WITH PREVAILING MVFR IN TSRA WILL KEEP MENTION ESPCLY
SINCE CHANCES OF SEEING A BAND OR CLUSTER OF STORMS IMPACT THESE
SITES APPEARS HIGHER. EXPECT LESS OF A CHANCE AT KDAN BUT STILL
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A VCTS GIVEN LIKELY SE TRAJECTORY OF TSRA LATER
ON. OTRW WILL KEEP VFR TO INIT MOST SPOTS BEFORE TRENDING DOWN
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE
STORMS WOULD BE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS BUT ALSO IFR VSBYS IN THE
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.
COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY LINGER WITH ANOTHER POSSIBLY ARRIVING ACROSS
THE NORTH THIS EVENING...MAINLY AFFECTING KROA/KLYH PER LATEST
MODELS. OTHERWISE THINKING WILL SEE CONVECTION FADE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING WITH SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND AND PERHAPS A PERIOD OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WHERE HEAVIER EARLIER RAINFALL OCCURRED.
WAVE PASSES ON THURSDAY WITH MUCH OF THE REGION IN BETWEEN LIFT
SOURCES AND UNDER A DECENT WESTERLY FLOW THAT SHOULD LIMIT
CONVECTION TO THE MAINLY THE FAR WEST AND PERHAPS BLUE RIDGE LATE.
THUS RUNNING WITH OVERALL VFR IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU FIELDS
AFTER ANY EARLY FOG/STRATUS FADES WITH WEST WINDS AT 10-20 KTS.
NEXT IMPULSE ARRIVES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE BILL
REMNANTS WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR IN AT LEAST WIDELY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATION WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE
THE MAIN FOCUS OF WEATHER THRU THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH REMNANTS OF
BILL THAT SHOULD GET CAUGHT INTO THE UPPER FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS COULD RESULT IN MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS. WEAK TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY WITH CONVECTION
BECOMING MORE ISOLATED DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTRW OVERALL
VFR INTO MONDAY WITH ADDED ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE WITH YET
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT LINGERING OVER THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR EXCEPT THE TYPICAL FOG FORMATION AT LWB/BCB
AND AT TIMES LYH THROUGH THE WEEK EARLY MORNING TIME FRAME.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 200 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
RECORD HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY JUNE 17TH...
STATION RECORD HIGHS/YEAR
ROANOKE 96/1944
LYNCHBURG 96/1944
DANVILLE 99/1981
BLACKSBURG 88/1994
BLUEFIELD 86/2007
LEWISBURG 88/2014
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH/PM
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...JH/NF
AVIATION...JH/PM
CLIMATE...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
324 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
CONVECTION HAS BEEN DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO
CENTRAL IOWA ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY AND AHEAD OF WEAK
SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THIS ACTIVITY HAS FORMED IN
AN AXIS OF ABOUT 1000 J/KG OF ML CAPE WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40
TO 45 KNOTS. THE 17.18Z RAP SUGGESTS THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
VERY SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND THAT
THE CAPE AXIS WILL ESSENTIALLY REMAIN IN PLACE. THE RAP ALSO
INDICATES THE BEST SHEAR IS OCCURRING RIGHT NOW AND THIS SHOULD
THEN DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON TO 35 KNOTS OR LESS IN THE 0-6 KM
LAYER ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 AND 25 KNOTS OR LESS OVER
THE ENTIRE AREA IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER. MOST OF THE HI-RES MESO
MODELS SHOW A TREND OF CONTINUED EXPANSION OF THE STORMS THROUGH
ABOUT 21Z OR 22Z AND THEN SHOW A DIMINISHING TREND AS THE SHEAR
DROPS OFF. THE RAP CONTINUES TO SHOW A VERY TALL AND SKINNY CAPE
PROFILE IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR KRST SO BELIEVE LOCAL
DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WITH AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT ONE OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME
SUB SEVERE HAIL OR WIND GUSTS. THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH
HELPING THIS ACTIVITY WAS COMING ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA AND WILL
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. THE RAP ALSO
CONTINUES TO SHOW ONLY WEAK FORCING FROM THIS WAVE WHICH SHOULD
HELP TO KEEP THE CONVECTION MORE ON THE SCATTERED SIDE. PLAN TO
START THE EARLY EVENING WITH AROUND A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OVER THE
NORTHWEST AHEAD OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY AND THEN QUICKLY TREND
THIS DOWN TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE EVENING
AS THE CAPE DIMINISHES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OUT OF CANADA THURSDAY AND DRIFT
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS HIGH WILL
PROVIDE A SHORT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN ZONAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO COME ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THE 17.12Z NAM AND GFS INDICATE THIS WAVE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME WEAK PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB
LAYER. THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE SLOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD INDICATED SO HAVE LIMITED THE RAIN CHANCES
TO THE 20 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH THE WEAK PV ADVECTION SHOULD MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING WEAK TO POSSIBLY SOME
MODERATE FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 1000-700 MB LAYER AND THEN WEAK
ABOVE THAT UP TO 500 MB. THE ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE ON THE 305K
SURFACE AHEAD OF THE WAVE LOOKS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 3
UBAR/S. FOR NOW WILL STAY WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH 50 TO 60
PERCENT RAIN CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH IN THIS SOLUTION GIVEN THE LACK PV ADVECTION AND THE NEUTRAL
TO SLIGHTLY POSITIVE TILT TO THE WAVE. AFTER THAT...THE ZONAL FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS COMING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOME RAIN
CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES CENTERED ON MONDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
MVFR CEILINGS NEAR KRST HAVE BEEN BREAKING UP OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...BUT STILL A POSSIBILITY THEY WILL SHOW UP FOR A BRIEF
TIME EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BEYOND THIS CONCERN...ATTENTION
FOCUSED ON CONVECTIVE CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT THE
AIRFIELDS. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS TSRA DEVELOPING FROM KMKT TO
KFBL. SHORT TERM MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL EXPAND INTO
SEVERAL CLUSTERS AND TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP AT KRST TO ATTEMPT TO PIN DOWN THE MOST
LIKELY TIMEFRAME. CONVECTION MAY WEAKEN BEFORE IT GETS TO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WILL MONITOR TRENDS AND ADJUST FORECAST AS
NECESSARY. EXPECT CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS MODELS MOVE RH OUT FAIRLY
QUICKLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. NAM THE ONLY MODEL TO HOLD ONTO
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE UNDER AN INVERSION AND SUGGESTS FOG/MIST.
HAVE DISCOUNTED THIS FOR NOW BUT ALSO BEARS WATCHING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...MW
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW LOW
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
LOW ARE PUMPING IN DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S INTO WESTERN WI AND
SOUTHEAST MN WHERE ML CAPES ARE SURPASSING 1200 J/KG. ANTICIPATE
THAT STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FIRE AHEAD OF THE LOW AND TRANSLATE NE
ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WI LATER THIS AFTERNOON
OR EARLY THIS WEEKEND. FORECAST CONCERNS THEREFORE INCLUDE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND IMPACTS IN THE SHORT-TERM.
TONIGHT...THE LOW PRESSURE OVER MINNESOTA WILL TRAVEL EAST OVER
CENTRAL WI INTO NORTHEAST WI BY 12Z THU. THE SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE LOW WILL KEEP MOST OF ITS IMPACTS WEST OF THE
REGION UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING. THE FOCUS FOR THE EVENING WILL
RESIDE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NE FROM THE LOW INTO THE
WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY IMPACT AREAS NORTH OF A WAUSAU TO IRON
MOUNTAIN LINE THROUGH THE EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...CONCERNED THAT
SOME STORMS WILL MAKE A RUN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN BEFORE DIURNAL
INSTABILITY IS LOST. IF THIS OCCURS...STORMS MAY STILL CONTAIN GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL GIVEN THE DECENT WIND FIELDS ALOFT. WILL KEEP A
MENTION IN THE HWO. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM PROJECT AMPLE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL LINGER AHEAD OF THE LOW TO SUSTAIN
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. BUT WEAK FORCING SHOULD LEAD TO A DIURNAL
COMPONENT THAT WILL KEEP STORM INTENSITY IN CHECK. A MORE HUMID
NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTH.
THURSDAY...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OR STORMS SHOULD EXIT WITH THE LOW
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE BEHIND
THE LOW THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN CLOUDS WILL BUILD AHEAD OF A SECONDARY
FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHER RESOLUTION
MODELS ARE DEVELOPING SPOTTY SHOWERS ALONG THIS FRONT...BUT CANNOT
FIND HARDLY ANY CONVERGENCE ALONG IT. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
EXCEPT FOR FAR N-C WISCONSIN. HIGHS RISING TO AROUND 70 NORTH TO
THE UPPER 70S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN US THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTING UP SHOP SOUTH OF THE
AREA. THIS WILL BRING A FEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
THE AREA...ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS
WILL BE TIMING THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES.
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLIDES EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
COULD ALLOW FOR SOME FROST TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WI AS
TEMPS FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.
THE DRY WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END EITHER VERY LATE FRIDAY OR
MORE LIKELY ON SATURDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
APPROACH THE AREA. ONGOING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY MAKE A RUN AT
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING...BUT MODELS HAVE
SLOWED THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THIS ACTIVITY...WHICH WOULD LEAD
TO A ANOTHER ROUND DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
CAN DEVELOP. IF WE CAN CLEAR OUT FOR A PERIOD...SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES INCREASE WITH COLD FRONT/SHORTWAVE APPROACHING...DECENT
SHEAR (0-6KM BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 35-50 KTS)...PROVIDING FOR A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. SPC FOCUSES THE DAY 4 OUTLOOK MAINLY FROM
CENTRAL WI SOUTHWESTWARD WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY IS MOST LIKELY
TO RESIDE...BUT IF THE SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN AND THE BETTER
INSTABILITY (DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60 AND CAPE APPROACHING
2000 J/KG) CAN DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH/EAST THE THREAT AREA COULD BE
EXPANDED MORE INTO NE WI. WILL SLOW DOWN THE ONSET OF POPS FRIDAY
EVENING/NIGHT...KEEPING ONLY CHANCE POPS OVER FAR NORTHERN
WI...AND KEEP LIKELY POPS ON SATURDAY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. THE
REMNANTS OF BILL WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER PWATS ARE
FORECAST TO CLIMB BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0 INCHES ON SATURDAY...WHICH
WILL BRING A HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING THREAT.
ANY SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE AREA DURING SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL OUT FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE AREA...ACROSS IOWA...ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...
THAT WE SHOULD SNEAK OUT A DRY DAY ON SUNDAY. LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND MAYBE SOME STORMS EXIST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS MODELS SHOW WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING IN THE
ZONAL/WEST UPPER FLOW. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA THOUGH...CLOSER TO THE HUNG UP
BOUNDARY. MODELS DO SHOW THE BOUNDARY STARTING TO APPROACH THE
AREA LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. IF THIS OCCURS...MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN...WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER FAR
NORTH-CENTRAL WI INTO THE EVENING...WHICH SHOULD MOSTLY PASS BY
RHINELANDER TO THE NORTH. THEN WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS. CEILINGS WILL DROP INTO MVFR WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE
JUST AHEAD AND ALSO BEHIND THE LOW LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU.
CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE RATHER QUICKLY THU MORNING.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......BERSCH
AVIATION.......MPC