Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/16/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
244 PM MST SUN JUN 14 2015
.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF GILA COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...SKIES WILL BE SUNNY
WITH A CONTINUED WARMING TREND. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME
SITUATED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS WEEK LEADING TO SEASONABLY
HOT CONDITIONS. MANY LOWER DESERTS LOCATIONS WILL SEE A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF TEMPERATURES ABOVE 110 DEGREES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA AND ARE SLOWLY MAKING THEIR WAY SOUTHWARD. LATEST SPC
MESOANALYSIS AND RAP FORECAST INDICATES AN UNFAVORABLE...STABLE
ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ASIDE
FROM SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS ACROSS MARICOPA/LA
PAZ COUNTIES...IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH THESE SHOWERS. HRRR
INDICATES THEY WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS EVENING...LOCAL WRFS...UA
WRF...AND SPC SSEO ALL ADVERTISE SIMILAR SOLUTIONS AND I HAVE NO
REASON TO ARGUE AGAINST THESE DATA.
THE BIG STORY THIS WEEK WILL BE THE RETURN OF 110+ DEGREE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. 12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE
RUN-TO-RUN TREND OF INCREASING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION AND
NEARLY ALL AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS POINTING TO A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF DANGEROUSLY HOT TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THIS IS THE FIRST SUBSTANTIAL
HEAT WAVE OF THE YEAR AND THAT TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN AT OR BELOW
NORMAL FOR SUCH A LONG TIME...I ELECTED TO ISSUE AN EXCESSIVE HEAT
WATCH FOR MOST LOWER DESERT LOCALES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOT ON MONDAY...THE IMPACTS WILL LIKELY NOT BE
REALIZED UNTIL TUESDAY AND BEYOND. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 110-115
RANGE WILL BE COMMON AND THESE NUMBERS ARE SUPPORTED BY A PLETHORA OF
ENSEMBLE DATA. THE ONLY SILVER LINING TO BE FOUND THIS WEEK IS THAT
OVERNIGHT LOWS WON`T BE IN THE 90S DURING THIS EVENT. OUTLYING DESERT
LOCALES SHOULD BE ABLE TO FALL INTO THE MID 70S WHEREAS THE URBAN
CORE OF PHOENIX WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW/MID 80S. SOME RELIEF...BUT NOT
MUCH.
IT`S ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME MIXED SYMBOLS IN THE GUIDANCE THAT
FAR OUT. SOME DATA SUGGEST TEMPS RETREATING BELOW THE 110 MARK
WHEREAS OTHER DATA MAINTAINS 110-112 THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. EITHER
WAY...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL BE LOOKING AT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT
LEAST 18Z MONDAY. A FEW HIGH BASED CU MAY BE SEEN OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...AND ANY THUNDERSTORM THREAT/OUTFLOW WILL REMAIN DISTANT OF
THOSE AREA TERMINALS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN VERY HOT DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS IN THE SIGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
QUICKLY TRANSITION THE HAINES INDEX TO A 5-6/MODERATE-HIGH...AND
ELEVATE FIRE DANGER AND EXPECTED FIRE BEHAVIOR. WINDS WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE WITH LOCAL AFTERNOON RIDGETOP GUSTS DURING THE PEAK
HEATING HOURS EACH DAY...FOLLOWED BY FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY MOST
LOCATIONS.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR AZZ020>023-025>028.
CA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR CAZ031>033.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS/LEINS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
146 PM MST SUN JUN 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF GILA COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...SKIES WILL BE SUNNY
WITH A CONTINUED WARMING TREND. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME
SITUATED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS WEEK LEADING TO SEASONABLY
HOT CONDITIONS. MANY LOWER DESERTS LOCATIONS WILL SEE A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF TEMPERATURES ABOVE 110 DEGREES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA AND ARE SLOWLY MAKING THEIR WAY SOUTHWARD. LATEST SPC
MESOANALYSIS AND RAP FORECAST INDICATES AN UNFAVORABLE...STABLE
ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ASIDE
FROM SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS ACROSS MARICOPA/LA
PAZ COUNTIES...IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH THESE SHOWERS. HRRR
INDICATES THEY WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS EVENING...LOCAL WRFS...UA
WRF...AND SPC SSEO ALL ADVERTISE SIMILAR SOLUTIONS AND I HAVE NO
REASON TO ARGUE AGAINST THESE DATA.
THE BIG STORY THIS WEEK WILL BE THE RETURN OF 110+ DEGREE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. 12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE
RUN-TO-RUN TREND OF INCREASING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION AND
NEARLY ALL AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS POINTING TO A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF DANGEROUSLY HOT TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THIS IS THE FIRST SUBSTANTIAL
HEAT WAVE OF THE YEAR AND THAT TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN AT OR BELOW
NORMAL FOR SUCH A LONG TIME...I ELECTED TO ISSUE AN EXCESSIVE HEAT
WATCH FOR MOST LOWER DESERT LOCALES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOT ON MONDAY...THE IMPACTS WILL LIKELY NOT BE
REALIZED UNTIL TUESDAY AND BEYOND. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 110-115
RANGE WILL BE COMMON AND THESE NUMBERS ARE SUPPORTED BY A PLETHORA OF
ENSEMBLE DATA. THE ONLY SILVER LINING TO BE FOUND THIS WEEK IS THAT
OVERNIGHT LOWS WON`T BE IN THE 90S DURING THIS EVENT. OUTLYING DESERT
LOCALES SHOULD BE ABLE TO FALL INTO THE MID 70S WHEREAS THE URBAN
CORE OF PHOENIX WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW/MID 80S. SOME RELIEF...BUT NOT
MUCH.
IT`S ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME MIXED SYMBOLS IN THE GUIDANCE THAT
FAR OUT. SOME DATA SUGGEST TEMPS RETREATING BELOW THE 110 MARK
WHEREAS OTHER DATA MAINTAINS 110-112 THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. EITHER
WAY...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL BE LOOKING AT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CLEAR SKIES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AROUND NOON BEFORE
SOME HIGH BASED CU DEVELOPS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH AND EAST
OF PHOENIX. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS TOO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT THESE WILL NOT
AFFECT AREA TERMINALS. WINDS FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE LIGHT AND
FOLLOW DIURNAL PATTERNS...BUT SOME AFTERNOON BREEZINESS IS LIKELY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
INCREASING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL JUNE
PATTERN OF DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
AND DECREASING HUMIDITIES. SINGLE DIGIT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL BE
COMMON ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEK...WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES IN
MOST SPOTS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE ALTHOUGH SOME OCCASIONAL
LATE AFTERNOON RIDGETOP BREEZINESS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH PEAK HEATING
OF THE DAY.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR AZZ020>023-025>028.
CA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR CAZ031>033.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS/LEINS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
923 AM PDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT
IN GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OFF OF THE WEST COAST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:25 AM PDT SUNDAY... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
A WIDESPREAD STRATUS FIELD OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTHWARD AS BAJA CALIFORNIA. WEAKENING
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND A SUBTLE SOUTHERLY SURGE YESTERDAY HELPED TO
DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER... WITH THE FORT ORD PROFILER REPORTING
A MARINE LAYER THICKNESS OF NEARLY 2500 FT. THE SOUTHERLY APPROACH
BROUGHT AN EARLY RETURN OF COASTAL STRATUS TO THE MONTEREY BAY
REGION YESTERDAY... BUT HELPED TO SHIELD THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY
TO AN EXTENT. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER IN AND AROUND THE BAY AREA THIS MORNING BECAUSE OF FEWER
OVERNIGHT CLOUDS TO BLANKET THE AREA AND A COOLER AIR MASS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL AND TREND DOWNWARD TODAY
BEFORE BOTTOMING OUT TOMORROW WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED MONDAY.
THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY UNCHANGED OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... AS A SERIES OF WEAK HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE
DISTURBANCES MODULATE A QUASIZONAL FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AFTER MONDAY WITH MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER... A DEEP MARINE LAYER... AND STRONG ONSHORE FLOW.
.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 04:07 AM PDT SUNDAY...A DEEPENING UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA HAS COMPRESSED
THE RIDGE OFF OF THE WEST COAST DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. AS A
RESULT...ZONAL FLOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER CALIFORNIA AND IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE START OF THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK.
MEANWHILE...ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE NEAR THE SURFACE
AND THE MARINE LAYER HAS DEEPENED TO AROUND 2000 FT. THIS PATTERN
WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD COASTAL CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG DURING THE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS THAT WILL BURN-OFF INLAND BY LATE
MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY COASTAL DRIZZLE AS WELL GIVEN THE
DEEPENING MARINE LAYER. WITH THIS AND THE PERSISTENT NORTH-
NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLEST NEAR THE
COAST THROUGH MIDWEEK WHILE INLAND AREAS WARM INTO THE 80S AND 90S
AWAY FROM THE COAST.
THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN ALOFT THROUGH THE WORKWEEK. PREVIOUS TRENDS HAVE
POINTED TOWARD A RIDGE BUILDING OFF OF THE WEST COAST BY LATE WEEK
THAT WOULD RESULT IN AN INLAND WARMING TREND. HOWEVER...THE LATEST
GFS/ECMWF NOW POINT TOWARD CONTINUED ZONAL FLOW WITH THE BUILDING
RIDGE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. FOR NOW...WILL FORECAST A SLIGHT
WARMING TREND LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER
WILL LIKELY PERSIST WITH CONDITIONS TYPICAL OF MID/LATE JUNE.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:46 AM PDT SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD STRATUS ALONG
THE COAST AND LOCALLY INLAND THIS MORNING. CIGS ARE GENERALLY IN
THE MVFR RANGE WITH A FEW POCKETS OF IFR. ROLLING BACK TO THE
COAST LATER THIS MORNING WITH VFR EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS
WILL RETURN TONIGHT.
VICINITY OF KSFO...TRICKY INSIDE SF BAY THIS MORNING AS PATCHY CIG
ARE THROUGH GG AND INTO OAK/HWD. GOING OUT ON A LIMB HERE...BUT
WILL FOLLOW THE HIRES HRRR AND KEEP THE CLOUD FREE DONUT AROUND
KSFO THERE.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...MVFR CIGS AROUND 1500 FEET THROUGH 17-18Z.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR. CLEARING BY 18Z.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 04:07 AM PDT SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL
PRODUCE STEEP WIND WAVE AND FRESH SWELL. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM NOON
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM NOON
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...SF BAY
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: DRP
AVIATION: BELL
MARINE: MM
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
447 AM PDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT
IN GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OFF OF THE WEST COAST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 04:07 AM PDT SUNDAY...A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA HAS COMPRESSED THE
RIDGE OFF OF THE WEST COAST DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. AS A
RESULT...ZONAL FLOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER CALIFORNIA AND IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE START OF THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK.
MEANWHILE...ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE NEAR THE SURFACE
AND THE MARINE LAYER HAS DEEPENED TO AROUND 2000 FT. THIS PATTERN
WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD COASTAL CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG DURING THE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS THAT WILL BURN-OFF INLAND BY LATE
MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY COASTAL DRIZZLE AS WELL GIVEN THE
DEEPENING MARINE LAYER. WITH THIS AND THE PERSISTENT NORTH-
NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLEST NEAR THE
COAST THROUGH MIDWEEK WHILE INLAND AREAS WARM INTO THE 80S AND 90S
AWAY FROM THE COAST.
THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN ALOFT THROUGH THE WORKWEEK. PREVIOUS TRENDS HAVE
POINTED TOWARD A RIDGE BUILDING OFF OF THE WEST COAST BY LATE WEEK
THAT WOULD RESULT IN AN INLAND WARMING TREND. HOWEVER...THE LATEST
GFS/ECMWF NOW POINT TOWARD CONTINUED ZONAL FLOW WITH THE BUILDING
RIDGE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. FOR NOW...WILL FORECAST A SLIGHT
WARMING TREND LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER
WILL LIKELY PERSIST WITH CONDITIONS TYPICAL OF MID/LATE JUNE.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:46 AM PDT SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD STRATUS ALONG
THE COAST AND LOCALLY INLAND THIS MORNING. CIGS ARE GENERALLY IN
THE MVFR RANGE WITH A FEW POCKETS OF IFR. ROLLING BACK TO THE
COAST LATER THIS MORNING WITH VFR EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS
WILL RETURN TONIGHT.
VICINITY OF KSFO...TRICKY INSIDE SF BAY THIS MORNING AS PATCHY CIG
ARE THROUGH GG AND INTO OAK/HWD. GOING OUT ON A LIMB HERE...BUT
WILL FOLLOW THE HIRES HRRR AND KEEP THE CLOUD FREE DONUT AROUND
KSFO THERE.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...MVFR CIGS AROUND 1500 FEET THROUGH 17-18Z.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR. CLEARING BY 18Z.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 04:07 AM PDT SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL
PRODUCE STEEP WIND WAVE AND FRESH SWELL. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM NOON
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM NOON
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...SF BAY
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: MM
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
403 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NIGHT...THEN
GETS NEAR TO OUR OVER FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE ON
MODAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG IT. THE FRONT EXITS TO
THE EAST AS A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BRIEFLY BY HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL THEN FOLLOW...THE
NEXT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AND THEN ANOTHER LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY FOLLOW EACH OF THESE SYSTEMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS PER WATER VAPER AND 40KM RAP ANALYSIS REGION REMAINS TO THE
EAST OF THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE AXIS AS OF 19Z...UNTIL THE RIDGE
AXIS SLIDES TO OUR EAST...WHICH IT SHOULD LAT THIS EVENING
W/OVERNIGHT E...PRECIPITATION WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE IN TO THE AREA.
ONCE THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO THE EAST...GET INCREASING ISENTOPIC
LIFT ON THE I-295 TO I-310 SURFACES...AS WELL AS INCREASING
INSTABILITY ALOFT FROM W TO E WITH SHOWALTERS GRADUALLY DECREASING
TO 2 OR LESS TONIGHT. SO EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP FROM W TO E...WITH
A CHANCE OF THUNDER AS WELL. BEST FORCING REALLY DOES NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING/AFTER MIDNIGHT...SO DO NOT MENTION
ANY POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL UNTIL THEN. ONCE AGAIN POTETNIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO DEVELOPS FROM W TO E STARTING LATE
THIS EVENING OVER THE W 1/3 OF THE CWA...THEN SPREADING E
OVERNIGHT.
FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THREAT FOR RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ON
MONDAY...BECOMING MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE WITH ADDED INSTABILITY
DUE TO SOLAR INSOLATION...SO CONVERT FROM RAIN TO SHOWERS AFTER
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGOUGHT THE DAY. PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF FROM W TO E LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON/MONDAY EVENING AS SUPPORTING 700-500 HPA
SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE EAST.
REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THE AFD FOR DETAILS ON QPF
AMOUNTS AND POTENTIAL IMAPCACTS.
ANOTHER ITEM TO NOTE...SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION COULD BE DUE TO A
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OR TWO PASSING NEAR OR OVER PORTIONS
OF THE AREA. ANY TIME THERE IS A MESO-SCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
PASSING NEAR/OVER AN AREA THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RUELD OUT...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. HOWEVER THE PROBABILITY OF THIS IS VERY LOW. ALSO...THERE
IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT NUMBER AND
TRACK OF ANY MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX...WITH SOME POSSIBILITY
THAT THE AREA COULD BE MISSED BY THEM ENTIERLY. EVEN IF THIS WERE
TO HAPPEN...THE REGION STILL WILL RECEIVE RAINFALL DUE TO THE
UNDERLYING SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN.
FOR HIGHS MONDAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUDIANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FROM NYC ON WEST
AND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER CT AND LONG ISLAND DUE TO THE
IMPACT OF ONSHORE FLOW.
A BLEND OF MAV/ECS/MET GUDIANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH
VALUES FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD AS THE
FORECAST AREA WILL RESIDE AT THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES.
DURING THE SUMMERTIME...THIS IS A FAVORED LOCATION FOR MCS
DEVELOPMENT. AT THE SAME TIME...THE SUB TROP RIDGE WILL EXTEND AS
FAR WEST AS THE MS VALLEY...ALLOWING DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO BE
FUNNELED NORTHWARD AS A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVE QUICKLY EAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. THE MOST CHALLENGING
PART OF THE FORECAST IS THE TIMING OF THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES ASSOC
WITH THESE SYSTEMS.
THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE A COLD FRONT TUE AFT WHICH LOOKS TO HAVE
MODERATE SHEAR AND CAPE. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED
STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION ALONG WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.
ANOTHER SYSTEM FOLLOWS THU INTO THU NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE FORECAST FRI MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY FOLLOWS
EACH OF THESE SYSTEMS. 12Z GFS AND ECMWF BRING ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM INTO THE AREA LATE SAT INTO SUN. TIMING IN THE FAST FLOW THIS
FAR OUT IN TIME THOUGH LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.
WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH DEW POINTS MAINLY IN THE
60S. TEMPS WILL BE AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA MOVES OFFSHORE. LOW PRES PASSING
NORTH OF THE AREA WILL DRAG A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY LOW PRES PASSING THROUGH THE REGION ON
MONDAY.
VFR THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. CONDS LOWER TO MVFR FROM 04-07Z IN
SHRA...AND THEN BECOME IFR STARTING AROUND 08Z AND PERSISTING
THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING. OCNL LIFR CONDS POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO
TIME. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES...AND A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS
POSSIBLE AS WELL. CHANCES FOR TSTMS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS.
S WINDS 8-12 KT BECOME SE 5-10 KT TONIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY AFTERNOON...CONDS IMPROVE TO MVFR.
.MONDAY NIGHT...IFR AND LOWER IN SHRA/TSRA.
.TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER IN SHRA/TSRA.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS SHOULD BE 10 KT OR LESS TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...AND
GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS ON MONDAY. FOR NOW IT APPEARS GUSTS MONDAY
AFTERNOON ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS SHOULD STAY BELOW 25
KT...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS A SLIGHT CHANGE IN CONDITIONS
COULD LEAD TO 25 KT GUSTS THEN. AS A RESULT...CURRENTLY
FORECASTING SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS TONIGHT-
MONDAY NIGHT.
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A SERIES OF WEAK
FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS...EACH FOLLOWED BRIEFLY BY
HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE TO AROUND/JUST OVER 2 INCHES OVER THE
ENTIRE CWA FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
DECREASING. THIS IS MORE THAN 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.
THERE IS THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL UNDER ANY
STRONGER CONVECTION. WHAT IS IN QUESTION IS EXACTLY WHERE ANY
LOCALLY HEAVY CONVECTION WILL OCCUR AND FOR HOW LONG WILL IT LAST.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY DO NOT HAVE THE REQUIRED 50 PERCENT
CONFIDENCE NEEDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...BETWEEN 1.25 AND 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS BEING FORECAST
ACROSS THE AREA FROM TONIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING...WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS OVER NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWEST AMOUNTS
OVER SE CT/E LONG ISLAND. THERE IS DEFINITELY A THREAT FOR
WIDESPREAD MINOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AS WELL AS
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING...INCLUDING OF SOME FLASHIER
STREAMS/CREEKS IN NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. WILL ADDRESS
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING AND WIDESPREAD MINOR
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IN THE HWO.
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. HIGH PWATS DURING THIS TIME SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/DW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MALOIT/DW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/DW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
145 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE FORECAST.
41
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAST OF THE SHOWERS THAT WERE LINED UP ALONG THE ALABAMA/GEORGIA
BORDER HAVE DISSIPATED WITH JUST A LEFTOVER BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE LOCAL AREA AND DEVELOPING MID AND UPPER
LEVEL HIGH ON THE RAP ALLOWED FOR MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ON SATURDAY.
EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH 500MB HIGH BECOMING JUST A
TAF STRONGER AT 592DM. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND ALTHOUGH ATLANTA BARELY ESCAPED THE FIRST
90 DEGREE DAY OF THE YEAR YESTERDAY...IT SHOULD BE EASILY REACHED
TODAY. SHIED AWAY FROM BIAS CORRECTED AS WE ENTER A NEW WEATHER
PATTERN AND IT SEEMED CORRECTION WAS JUST TOO LOW FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST. INSTEAD WENT CLOSER TO THE RAW MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH
YIELDS VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL GEORGIA.
FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS...ONE COULD ARGUE FOR NIL POPS GIVEN STRENGTH
AND ORIENTATION OF STACKED MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH. FOR ME
THOUGH...JUST TOO MUCH MOISTURE AND PRECIPITABLE WATER TO KEEP
POPS COMPLETELY OUT. WILL WAIT AND SEE HOW TODAY UNFOLDS AND MAYBE
THEN WE CAN REMOVE FOR MONDAY. USUALLY IN PATTERNS LIKE THESE WE
HAVE PWATS RIGHT AT AND INCH OR LOWER WHEREAS WE ARE CLOSER TO 1.5
INCHES FOR THIS EVENT.
SIMILAR TEMP FORECAST FOR MONDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 90S AREA WIDE
AND HEAT INDICES IN THE LOWER 100S FOR SE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
DEESE
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM BUT THIS RIDGE ISNT STRONG ENOUGH THOUGH TO SHUT OFF
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. STILL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE
WITH PW VALUES EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES SO EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUE-WED. BY THURSDAY A SHORTWAVE IS
TRAVERSING THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND AS IT LIFTS THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY FRIDAY...THIS WILL PROVIDE MORE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA.
INSTABILITY INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. WITH MUCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 2500 J/KG ACROSS
NORTH GEORGIA...ANY FOCUS FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE
ACROSS THAT AREA...MAINLY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
MAIN STORY THOUGH REALLY CONTINUES TO BE THE HEAT. HEAT INDICES ARE
BETWEEN 100 AND 104 ACROSS EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA EACH DAY. TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY THE HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER
THAN THE REST OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER ITS SUCH A SUBTLE DIFFERENCE
THAT IT WONT BE NOTICEABLE. EVEN THOUGH WE ARE JUST BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE LONG TERM...ITS STILL GOING TO BE HOT AND
FOLKS NEED TO FOLLOW HEAT SAFETY RULES SUCH AS LIMITING TIME
OUTDOORS AND DRINKING PLENTY OF WATER.
11
CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 06-14
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 101 1921 74 1906 74 2010 52 1995
1981 1985
1958
KATL 96 1958 71 1955 78 1880 54 1968
1948
1914
KMCN 102 1963 73 1933 77 1958 53 1995
1921 1968
RECORDS FOR 06-15
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 99 1918 71 1965 76 1998 55 1933
KATL 96 1952 68 1884 76 1998 50 1917
1943
KMCN 100 2011 70 1955 78 1998 54 1995
2010
RECORDS FOR 06-16
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 100 1911 62 1961 74 1924 50 1917
KATL 98 1936 66 1927 74 1943 47 1917
1934
1920
KMCN 99 1964 69 1927 75 1964 50 1917
1920
1911
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT TO
KEEP SCT050-060 IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA
IN THE GRIDS BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN ANY TAFS AT THIS
POINT. LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.
DEESE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 96 72 98 73 / 20 20 20 10
ATLANTA 93 74 94 75 / 20 20 20 10
BLAIRSVILLE 89 66 90 67 / 20 20 20 20
CARTERSVILLE 94 70 95 71 / 20 20 20 10
COLUMBUS 96 73 97 74 / 20 20 20 10
GAINESVILLE 93 72 94 73 / 20 20 20 10
MACON 97 71 97 73 / 20 20 20 10
ROME 94 70 96 70 / 20 20 20 10
PEACHTREE CITY 94 70 94 71 / 20 20 20 10
VIDALIA 97 74 97 74 / 20 20 20 10
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...41
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1055 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE FORECAST.
41
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAST OF THE SHOWERS THAT WERE LINED UP ALONG THE ALABAMA/GEORGIA
BORDER HAVE DISSIPATED WITH JUST A LEFTOVER BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE LOCAL AREA AND DEVELOPING MID AND UPPER
LEVEL HIGH ON THE RAP ALLOWED FOR MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ON SATURDAY.
EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH 500MB HIGH BECOMING JUST A
TAF STRONGER AT 592DM. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND ALTHOUGH ATLANTA BARELY ESCAPED THE FIRST
90 DEGREE DAY OF THE YEAR YESTERDAY...IT SHOULD BE EASILY REACHED
TODAY. SHIED AWAY FROM BIAS CORRECTED AS WE ENTER A NEW WEATHER
PATTERN AND IT SEEMED CORRECTION WAS JUST TOO LOW FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST. INSTEAD WENT CLOSER TO THE RAW MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH
YIELDS VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL GEORGIA.
FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS...ONE COULD ARGUE FOR NIL POPS GIVEN STRENGTH
AND ORIENTATION OF STACKED MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH. FOR ME
THOUGH...JUST TOO MUCH MOISTURE AND PRECIPITABLE WATER TO KEEP
POPS COMPLETELY OUT. WILL WAIT AND SEE HOW TODAY UNFOLDS AND MAYBE
THEN WE CAN REMOVE FOR MONDAY. USUALLY IN PATTERNS LIKE THESE WE
HAVE PWATS RIGHT AT AND INCH OR LOWER WHEREAS WE ARE CLOSER TO 1.5
INCHES FOR THIS EVENT.
SIMILAR TEMP FORECAST FOR MONDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 90S AREA WIDE
AND HEAT INDICES IN THE LOWER 100S FOR SE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
DEESE
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM BUT THIS RIDGE ISNT STRONG ENOUGH THOUGH TO SHUT OFF
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. STILL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE
WITH PW VALUES EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES SO EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUE-WED. BY THURSDAY A SHORTWAVE IS
TRAVERSING THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND AS IT LIFTS THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY FRIDAY...THIS WILL PROVIDE MORE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA.
INSTABILITY INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. WITH MUCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 2500 J/KG ACROSS
NORTH GEORGIA...ANY FOCUS FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE
ACROSS THAT AREA...MAINLY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
MAIN STORY THOUGH REALLY CONTINUES TO BE THE HEAT. HEAT INDICES ARE
BETWEEN 100 AND 104 ACROSS EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA EACH DAY. TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY THE HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER
THAN THE REST OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER ITS SUCH A SUBTLE DIFFERENCE
THAT IT WONT BE NOTICEABLE. EVEN THOUGH WE ARE JUST BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE LONG TERM...ITS STILL GOING TO BE HOT AND
FOLKS NEED TO FOLLOW HEAT SAFETY RULES SUCH AS LIMITING TIME
OUTDOORS AND DRINKING PLENTY OF WATER.
11
CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 06-14
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 101 1921 74 1906 74 2010 52 1995
1981 1985
1958
KATL 96 1958 71 1955 78 1880 54 1968
1948
1914
KMCN 102 1963 73 1933 77 1958 53 1995
1921 1968
RECORDS FOR 06-15
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 99 1918 71 1965 76 1998 55 1933
KATL 96 1952 68 1884 76 1998 50 1917
1943
KMCN 100 2011 70 1955 78 1998 54 1995
2010
RECORDS FOR 06-16
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 100 1911 62 1961 74 1924 50 1917
KATL 98 1936 66 1927 74 1943 47 1917
1934
1920
KMCN 99 1964 69 1927 75 1964 50 1917
1920
1911
.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
SEEING SOME MVFR REDUCED VSBY AT SOME AREA METAR SITE BUT EXPECT
THESE TO BE TEMPORARY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE FOR THIS
TAF CYCLE ONE AGAIN. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT TO WARRANT
A FEW030 INITIALLY AT 16Z BUT QUICKLY RISING BASES TO AROUND 6K
FEET BY 18Z. WILL BE MAINTAINING LOW END TSRA CHANCES IN THE GRIDS
BUT CERTAINLY NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN ANY TAFS AT THIS
POINT.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.
DEESE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 96 72 98 73 / 20 20 20 10
ATLANTA 93 74 94 75 / 20 20 20 10
BLAIRSVILLE 89 66 90 67 / 20 20 20 20
CARTERSVILLE 94 70 95 71 / 20 20 20 10
COLUMBUS 96 73 97 74 / 20 20 20 10
GAINESVILLE 93 72 94 73 / 20 20 20 10
MACON 97 71 97 73 / 20 20 20 10
ROME 94 70 96 70 / 20 20 20 10
PEACHTREE CITY 94 70 94 71 / 20 20 20 10
VIDALIA 97 74 97 74 / 20 20 20 10
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...41
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
741 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAST OF THE SHOWERS THAT WERE LINED UP ALONG THE ALABAMA/GEORGIA
BORDER HAVE DISSIPATED WITH JUST A LEFTOVER BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE LOCAL AREA AND DEVELOPING MID AND UPPER
LEVEL HIGH ON THE RAP ALLOWED FOR MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ON SATURDAY.
EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH 500MB HIGH BECOMING JUST A
TAF STRONGER AT 592DM. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND ALTHOUGH ATLANTA BARELY ESCAPED THE FIRST
90 DEGREE DAY OF THE YEAR YESTERDAY...IT SHOULD BE EASILY REACHED
TODAY. SHIED AWAY FROM BIAS CORRECTED AS WE ENTER A NEW WEATHER
PATTERN AND IT SEEMED CORRECTION WAS JUST TOO LOW FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST. INSTEAD WENT CLOSER TO THE RAW MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH
YIELDS VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL GEORGIA.
FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS...ONE COULD ARGUE FOR NIL POPS GIVEN STRENGTH
AND ORIENTATION OF STACKED MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH. FOR ME
THOUGH...JUST TOO MUCH MOISTURE AND PRECIPITABLE WATER TO KEEP
POPS COMPLETELY OUT. WILL WAIT AND SEE HOW TODAY UNFOLDS AND MAYBE
THEN WE CAN REMOVE FOR MONDAY. USUALLY IN PATTERNS LIKE THESE WE
HAVE PWATS RIGHT AT AND INCH OR LOWER WHEREAS WE ARE CLOSER TO 1.5
INCHES FOR THIS EVENT.
SIMILAR TEMP FORECAST FOR MONDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 90S AREA WIDE
AND HEAT INDICES IN THE LOWER 100S FOR SE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
DEESE
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM BUT THIS RIDGE ISNT STRONG ENOUGH THOUGH TO SHUT OFF
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. STILL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE
WITH PW VALUES EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES SO EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUE-WED. BY THURSDAY A SHORTWAVE IS
TRAVERSING THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND AS IT LIFTS THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY FRIDAY...THIS WILL PROVIDE MORE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA.
INSTABILITY INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. WITH MUCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 2500 J/KG ACROSS
NORTH GEORGIA...ANY FOCUS FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE
ACROSS THAT AREA...MAINLY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
MAIN STORY THOUGH REALLY CONTINUES TO BE THE HEAT. HEAT INDICES ARE
BETWEEN 100 AND 104 ACROSS EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA EACH DAY. TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY THE HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER
THAN THE REST OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER ITS SUCH A SUBTLE DIFFERENCE
THAT IT WONT BE NOTICEABLE. EVEN THOUGH WE ARE JUST BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE LONG TERM...ITS STILL GOING TO BE HOT AND
FOLKS NEED TO FOLLOW HEAT SAFETY RULES SUCH AS LIMITING TIME
OUTDOORS AND DRINKING PLENTY OF WATER.
11
CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 06-14
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 101 1921 74 1906 74 2010 52 1995
1981 1985
1958
KATL 96 1958 71 1955 78 1880 54 1968
1948
1914
KMCN 102 1963 73 1933 77 1958 53 1995
1921 1968
RECORDS FOR 06-15
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 99 1918 71 1965 76 1998 55 1933
KATL 96 1952 68 1884 76 1998 50 1917
1943
KMCN 100 2011 70 1955 78 1998 54 1995
2010
RECORDS FOR 06-16
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 100 1911 62 1961 74 1924 50 1917
KATL 98 1936 66 1927 74 1943 47 1917
1934
1920
KMCN 99 1964 69 1927 75 1964 50 1917
1920
1911
.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
SEEING SOME MVFR REDUCED VSBY AT SOME AREA METAR SITE BUT EXPECT
THESE TO BE TEMPORARY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE FOR THIS
TAF CYCLE ONE AGAIN. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT TO WARRANT
A FEW030 INITIALLY AT 16Z BUT QUICKLY RISING BASES TO AROUND 6K
FEET BY 18Z. WILL BE MAINTAINING LOW END TSRA CHANCES IN THE GRIDS
BUT CERTAINLY NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN ANY TAFS AT THIS
POINT.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.
DEESE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 96 72 98 73 / 20 20 20 10
ATLANTA 93 74 94 75 / 20 20 20 10
BLAIRSVILLE 89 66 90 67 / 20 20 20 20
CARTERSVILLE 94 70 95 71 / 20 20 20 10
COLUMBUS 96 73 97 74 / 20 20 20 10
GAINESVILLE 93 72 94 73 / 20 20 20 10
MACON 97 71 97 73 / 20 20 20 10
ROME 94 70 96 70 / 20 20 20 10
PEACHTREE CITY 94 70 94 71 / 20 20 20 10
VIDALIA 97 74 97 74 / 20 20 20 10
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...DEESE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
254 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAST OF THE SHOWERS THAT WERE LINED UP ALONG THE ALABAMA/GEORGIA
BORDER HAVE DISSIPATED WITH JUST A LEFTOVER BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE LOCAL AREA AND DEVELOPING MID AND UPPER
LEVEL HIGH ON THE RAP ALLOWED FOR MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ON SATURDAY.
EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH 500MB HIGH BECOMING JUST A
TAF STRONGER AT 592DM. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND ALTHOUGH ATLANTA BARELY ESCAPED THE FIRST
90 DEGREE DAY OF THE YEAR YESTERDAY...IT SHOULD BE EASILY REACHED
TODAY. SHIED AWAY FROM BIAS CORRECTED AS WE ENTER A NEW WEATHER
PATTERN AND IT SEEMED CORRECTION WAS JUST TOO LOW FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST. INSTEAD WENT CLOSER TO THE RAW MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH
YIELDS VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL GEORGIA.
FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS...ONE COULD ARGUE FOR NIL POPS GIVEN STRENGTH
AND ORIENTATION OF STACKED MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH. FOR ME
THOUGH...JUST TOO MUCH MOISTURE AND PRECIPITABLE WATER TO KEEP
POPS COMPLETELY OUT. WILL WAIT AND SEE HOW TODAY UNFOLDS AND MAYBE
THEN WE CAN REMOVE FOR MONDAY. USUALLY IN PATTERNS LIKE THESE WE
HAVE PWATS RIGHT AT AND INCH OR LOWER WHEREAS WE ARE CLOSER TO 1.5
INCHES FOR THIS EVENT.
SIMILAR TEMP FORECAST FOR MONDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 90S AREA WIDE
AND HEAT INDICES IN THE LOWER 100S FOR SE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
DEESE
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM BUT THIS RIDGE ISNT STRONG ENOUGH THOUGH TO SHUT OFF
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. STILL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE
WITH PW VALUES EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES SO EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUE-WED. BY THURSDAY A SHORTWAVE IS
TRAVERSING THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND AS IT LIFTS THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY FRIDAY...THIS WILL PROVIDE MORE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA.
INSTABILITY INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. WITH MUCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 2500 J/KG ACROSS
NORTH GEORGIA...ANY FOCUS FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE
ACROSS THAT AREA...MAINLY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
MAIN STORY THOUGH REALLY CONTINUES TO BE THE HEAT. HEAT INDICES ARE
BETWEEN 100 AND 104 ACROSS EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA EACH DAY. TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY THE HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER
THAN THE REST OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER ITS SUCH A SUBTLE DIFFERENCE
THAT IT WONT BE NOTICEABLE. EVEN THOUGH WE ARE JUST BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE LONG TERM...ITS STILL GOING TO BE HOT AND
FOLKS NEED TO FOLLOW HEAT SAFETY RULES SUCH AS LIMITING TIME
OUTDOORS AND DRINKING PLENTY OF WATER.
11
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 06-14
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 101 1921 74 1906 74 2010 52 1995
1981 1985
1958
KATL 96 1958 71 1955 78 1880 54 1968
1948
1914
KMCN 102 1963 73 1933 77 1958 53 1995
1921 1968
RECORDS FOR 06-15
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 99 1918 71 1965 76 1998 55 1933
KATL 96 1952 68 1884 76 1998 50 1917
1943
KMCN 100 2011 70 1955 78 1998 54 1995
2010
RECORDS FOR 06-16
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 100 1911 62 1961 74 1924 50 1917
KATL 98 1936 66 1927 74 1943 47 1917
1934
1920
KMCN 99 1964 69 1927 75 1964 50 1917
1920
1911
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
SEEING SOME MVFR REDUCED VSBY AT SOME AREA METAR SITE BUT EXPECT
THESE TO BE TEMPORARY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE FOR THIS
TAF CYCLE ONE AGAIN. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT TO WARRANT
A FEW030 INITIALLY AT 16Z BUT QUICKLY RISING BASES TO AROUND 6K
FEET BY 18Z. WILL BE MAINTAINING LOW END TSRA CHANCES IN THE GRIDS
BUT CERTAINLY NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN ANY TAFS AT THIS
POINT.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.
DEESE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 96 72 98 73 / 20 20 20 10
ATLANTA 93 74 94 75 / 20 20 20 10
BLAIRSVILLE 89 66 90 67 / 20 20 20 20
CARTERSVILLE 94 70 95 71 / 20 20 20 10
COLUMBUS 96 73 97 74 / 20 20 20 10
GAINESVILLE 93 72 94 73 / 20 20 20 10
MACON 97 71 97 73 / 20 20 20 10
ROME 94 70 96 70 / 20 20 20 10
PEACHTREE CITY 94 70 94 71 / 20 20 20 10
VIDALIA 97 74 97 74 / 20 20 20 10
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...DEESE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1046 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1046 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO MAKE MINOR CHANGES FOR TIMING TO THE
EXPECTED RAINFALL FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PRODUCING JUST ENOUGH LIFT FOR A CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE STL AREA LATE THIS
MORNING. THIS SHOULD MAINLY AFFECT CENTRAL IL BETWEEN A
JACKSONVILLE-LINCOLN-BLOOMINGTON LINE AND I-70 EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ARE EXPECTED AROUND THE IL RIVER
VALLEY AND SOUTH OF I-70 AS BRIEF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAUSE
POCKETS OF HIGHER INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SPOTTY CONVECTION.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ON THE 12Z SOUNDING AT ILX AND AT LOCATIONS
UPSTREAM INDICATED A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THUS, ANY CONVECTION WILL BE FAIRLY SLOW MOVING, RESULTING IN
ISOLATED AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. UNIMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES,
DESPITE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WEAK WIND SHEAR WILL ONLY RESULT
IN AN ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH PRECIP LOADING IN THE STRONGEST STORMS PRODUCING
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR A DOWNBURST THREAT.
CURRENTLY TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 75-80 RANGE IN CENTRAL IL AND
LOWER 80S IN SOUTHEAST IL. DESPITE THE OVERALL TREND TOWARD A
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS FOR HIGHS TO
REACH THE LOWER-MIDDLE 80S IN CENTRAL IL AND UPPER 80S IN THE
SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
07Z/2AM RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS
LARGELY LIFTED INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS...LEAVING BEHIND ONLY WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. AS HAS
BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS...A LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES WILL
BE OBSERVED THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING. ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY...A FEW PEEKS OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW SBCAPE VALUES TO
RISE INTO THE 1500 TO 2000J/KG RANGE LATER TODAY. DESPITE MODERATE
INSTABILITY...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST 0-6KM SHEAR WILL DECREASE
INTO THE 15 TO 20KT RANGE. THE WEAK SHEAR ALONG WITH THE ABSENCE OF
A STRONG FORCING MECHANISM WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD/ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER FROM OCCURRING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION...WITH THE GREATEST
CONCENTRATION NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. THANKS TO COPIOUS AMOUNTS
OF MOISTURE IN THE ENVIRONMENT...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM WEAKENING/DECAYING
STORMS.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND
DEEP-LAYER GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD
AROUND THE HIGH INTO THE MIDWEST. SEVERAL SHORT-WAVES TRACKING
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL ATTEMPT TO FLATTEN THE PREVAILING
RIDGE...BUT WILL BE UNSUCCESSFUL UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK.
THE FIRST WAVE CURRENTLY OVER ALBERTA/MONTANA WILL TRACK EASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS BY TUESDAY. AS THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT
APPROACH...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY LEAD TO A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GFS SHOWS
SBCAPES ONCE AGAIN REACHING THE 1500-2000J/KG RANGE WHILE 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR CLIMBS TO 30-35KT ACROSS THE N/NW CWA. WITH STRONGER FORCING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MORE FAVORABLE INSTABILITY/SHEAR PARAMETERS
DEVELOPING...THINK THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND HAIL WILL INCREASE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
LATEST DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC PLACES ALL OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE ACCORDINGLY.
FRONT WILL SAG INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS ON TUESDAY...THEN STALL AS IT
BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR.
ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE WILL TRACK OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY...FLATTENING THE SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE JUST
ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE PREVAILING BAROCLINIC ZONE TO SLIP SOUTHWARD.
WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS ON WEDNESDAY...THEN WILL DECREASE TO
CHANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. FURTHER OUT...MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A RELATIVELY DRY PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ONLY POSSIBLE FLY-IN-THE-OINTMENT IS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MAY TRACK NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF
LATER IN THE WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS FEATURE
BRINGING PRECIP TO THE SOUTHEAST CWA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS...AS DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK STILL
REMAIN IN QUESTION. ASIDE FROM THIS POSSIBLE LOW...OVERALL UPPER
FLOW PATTERN WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY...LEADING
TO WARM/MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES NEXT 24HRS EXCEPT FOR
CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED ENOUGH THAT ANY PCPN REMAINING ACROSS THE
AREA WILL BE SHOWERS. SO HAVE VCSH FOR ALL SITES THROUGH ABOUT
10Z. HRRR SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE WITH PCPN CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING SO THINK PCPN WILL END WITH CLOUDS
SCATTERING OUT FOR THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. LIKE
TODAY...THINK SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE AREA
SO HAVE VCTS AT ALL SITES TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHICH WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...BARNES
AVIATION...AUTEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
307 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
07Z/2AM RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS
LARGELY LIFTED INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS...LEAVING BEHIND ONLY WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. AS HAS
BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS...A LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES WILL
BE OBSERVED THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING. ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY...A FEW PEEKS OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW SBCAPE VALUES TO
RISE INTO THE 1500 TO 2000J/KG RANGE LATER TODAY. DESPITE MODERATE
INSTABILITY...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST 0-6KM SHEAR WILL DECREASE
INTO THE 15 TO 20KT RANGE. THE WEAK SHEAR ALONG WITH THE ABSENCE OF
A STRONG FORCING MECHANISM WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD/ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER FROM OCCURRING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION...WITH THE GREATEST
CONCENTRATION NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. THANKS TO COPIOUS AMOUNTS
OF MOISTURE IN THE ENVIRONMENT...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM WEAKENING/DECAYING
STORMS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND
DEEP-LAYER GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD
AROUND THE HIGH INTO THE MIDWEST. SEVERAL SHORT-WAVES TRACKING
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL ATTEMPT TO FLATTEN THE PREVAILING
RIDGE...BUT WILL BE UNSUCCESSFUL UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK.
THE FIRST WAVE CURRENTLY OVER ALBERTA/MONTANA WILL TRACK EASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS BY TUESDAY. AS THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT
APPROACH...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY LEAD TO A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GFS SHOWS
SBCAPES ONCE AGAIN REACHING THE 1500-2000J/KG RANGE WHILE 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR CLIMBS TO 30-35KT ACROSS THE N/NW CWA. WITH STRONGER FORCING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MORE FAVORABLE INSTABILITY/SHEAR PARAMETERS
DEVELOPING...THINK THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND HAIL WILL INCREASE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
LATEST DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC PLACES ALL OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE ACCORDINGLY.
FRONT WILL SAG INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS ON TUESDAY...THEN STALL AS IT
BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR.
ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE WILL TRACK OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY...FLATTENING THE SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE JUST
ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE PREVAILING BAROCLINIC ZONE TO SLIP SOUTHWARD.
WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS ON WEDNESDAY...THEN WILL DECREASE TO
CHANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. FURTHER OUT...MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A RELATIVELY DRY PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ONLY POSSIBLE FLY-IN-THE-OINTMENT IS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MAY TRACK NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF
LATER IN THE WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS FEATURE
BRINGING PRECIP TO THE SOUTHEAST CWA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS...AS DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK STILL
REMAIN IN QUESTION. ASIDE FROM THIS POSSIBLE LOW...OVERALL UPPER
FLOW PATTERN WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY...LEADING
TO WARM/MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES NEXT 24HRS EXCEPT FOR
CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED ENOUGH THAT ANY PCPN REMAINING ACROSS THE
AREA WILL BE SHOWERS. SO HAVE VCSH FOR ALL SITES THROUGH ABOUT
10Z. HRRR SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE WITH PCPN CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING SO THINK PCPN WILL END WITH CLOUDS
SCATTERING OUT FOR THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. LIKE
TODAY...THINK SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE AREA
SO HAVE VCTS AT ALL SITES TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHICH WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...BARNES
AVIATION...AUTEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1158 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 920 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
WILL MAKE A QUICK UPDATE TO SPRUCE UP POPS/WX AND WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT TOO. REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS FINE. UPDATE
OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
MOIST DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO PROVIDE PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. ALTHOUGH
ATMOSPHERE ISN`T QUITE AS MOIST AS YESTERDAY (PER 12Z KILX
SOUNDING). POTENTIAL STILL REMAINS FOR SOME EFFICIENT CONVECTION
AND POSSIBLE PRECIP LOADING PRODUCING STRONG WINDS. ALTHOUGH
INITIAL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON HAS DEVELOPED IN SAME AREA AS
LAST NIGHTS LINE WHERE INSTABILITY AXIS REMAINS...LATEST MESOSCALE
MODELS SUGGEST PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING OVER MISSOURI WILL BE
BIGGER ORGANIZED THREAT AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN
ILLINOIS. INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL LIKELY BE PRIMED TO PRODUCE
LOCALIZED STRONG WINDS. IF ORGANIZED LINES CAN DEVELOP...THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS.
LATEST HRRR SUGGEST SCATTERED CONVECTION EAST OF I-55 WILL BE MORE
DIURNAL IN NATURE DRIVEN BY INSTABILITY AND A LACK OF SHEAR. MORE
SHEAR IS PROGGED OVER WESTERN ILLINOIS AND PRECIP MAY LINGER INTO
THE EARLY MORNING.
GROUND REMAINS LOCALLY SATURATED AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
LEADS TO SOME FLOODING POTENTIAL IN WESTERN ILLINOIS PER MPD ISSUED
BY WPC. AN ESF HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LONG-RANGE HEAVY RAIN THREAT AND
WILL MENTION POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IN GRIDS AND WORDED FORECASTS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 4 DAYS...AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS ACROSS ILLINOIS AND A LARGE RIDGE IN
THE SOUTHEAST STATES PROVIDES A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW INTO
ILLINOIS. PERIODIC SHORTWAVES, SOME CONVECTIVELY INDUCED, WILL
RIDE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE LARGE
UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE WAVES IN THE MODELS.
HOWEVER, THERE IS ENOUGH AGREEMENT OVER ABNORMALLY HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT AND MODERATE INSTABILITY THAT WE KEPT LARGE PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS IN LIKELY POPS EACH PERIOD THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
SEVERE CHANCES APPEAR TO BE HIGHER ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVE AND AGAIN
ON MONDAY, BUT WE CANT RULE OUT INCREASING CHANCES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THOSE DAYS GET CLOSER. PRECIP LOADING IN MANY
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE
DOWNBURST WINDS. 0-6KM WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 30KT,
WITH UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORMS TRAINING IN A
LINE. SO MAIN HAZARDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE DAMAGING WINDS AND FLASH
FLOODING. WILL MONITOR HAIL POTENTIAL, SINCE EVEN A SLIGHT LOWERING
OF THE FREEZING LEVEL WOULD INCREASE HAIL PRODUCTION.
WE CONSIDERED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH, BUT MODEL UNCERTAINTIES HAVE KEPT
A LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION SEEING THE AXIS OF HEAVY
RAINS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY IN THE COMING MODEL RUNS FOR
A POTENTIAL OPPORTUNITY TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA OF CONCERN. FOR NOW,
WILL HIGHLIGHT THE FLOODING THREAT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
THE FAR EXTENDED STILL CONTAINS POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY THROUGH
SATURDAY, BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT MAY SAG FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF OUR COUNTIES TO PROVIDE MORE SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN
THE RAIN CHANCES FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES NEXT 24HRS EXCEPT FOR
CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED ENOUGH THAT ANY PCPN REMAINING ACROSS THE
AREA WILL BE SHOWERS. SO HAVE VCSH FOR ALL SITES THROUGH ABOUT
10Z. HRRR SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE WITH PCPN CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING SO THINK PCPN WILL END WITH CLOUDS
SCATTERING OUT FOR THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. LIKE
TODAY...THINK SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE AREA
SO HAVE VCTS AT ALL SITES TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHICH WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AUTEN
SHORT TERM...BARKER
LONG TERM...SHIMON
AVIATION...AUTEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
802 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
A COLD FRONT OVER WISCONSIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT CAUSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA TUESDAY... CONFINING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA AND THEN LIFT BACK NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN BACK TO THE AREA. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S... WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH HAS BEEN STNRY FOR SOME TIME TO OUR NORTH
WAS BEGINNING TO MAKE SEWD PROGRESS TODAY IN RESPONSE TO A SHRTWV
MOVG ACROSS ONTARIO MERGING WITH SECOND SYSTEM LIFTING NE FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA WITH
PWATS AROUND 2" HAS DESTABILIZED IN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY ALLOWING
NUMEROUS TSTMS TO DEVELOP. SOME BACKBUILDING/TRAINING CELLS OCRG
ATTM AS SUGGESTED BY RAP 5-10KT UPWIND PROPAGATION VECTORS. LATEST
HRRR SUGGESTS SCT-NUMEROUS STORMS WILL CONT LATE THIS AFTN AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WITH MORE WIDESPREAD TSTMS FORMING ALONG THE FRONT
LATE THIS AFTN AND MOVG THROUGH OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. THUS... STILL
APPEARS TO BE A GOOD SETUP FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS OUR AREA
SO FFA ISSUED EARLIER TODAY WILL CONT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
CDFNT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE STALLING OUT ON
TUE. SOME LINGERING POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS PSBL IN THE MORNING AND WK
INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW A FEW MORE TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN... BUT
OVERALL APPEARS TO BE A DAY TO DRY OUT.
WK CAA BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE 60S
TONIGHT WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS ALLOWING HIGHS TO
REACH THE L-M80S ON TUE.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
WET PATTERN AND FLOODING CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A CONSISTENT SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FEED PUMPS PWAT
VALUES AOA 2.0" INTO THE CWA. ONLY DAY OF RELIEF IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD MAY BE FRIDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SLIDES THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES AND TRIES TO SLIDE OUR PESKY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOUTHWARD. SOME PRECIP IS STILL POSSIBLE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY ON
FRIDAY...BUT THE HIGHLY EFFICIENT WARM CLOUD PROCESSES WILL CEASE
NORTH OF THE FRONT. THE REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY
IN THE WESTERN GULF ADVECT INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND
RETURN THE MUGGY CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHERN LAKES. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF INDICATE THE TROPICAL SYSTEM MAY PHASE WITH A NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE AND DEVELOP A SUB 1000MB SURFACE REFLECTION IN THE
VICINITY OF THE GREAT LAKES. A DECENT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES MAY BE JUST WHAT WE NEED TO FINALLY SHUNT THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND USHER IN DRIER CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 801 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
TSTMS CONTG TO DEVELOP OVER NRN INDIANA ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM AFTN CONVECTION. CLUSTER OF STORMS ALSO CONTS
TO EXPAND CLOSER TO FRONT ACROSS NE IL. LATEST HRRR CONTS TO
SUGGEST THESE TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION WILL MERGE OVER NRN INDIANA
THIS EVE AS CDFNT DROPS SLOWLY SE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A RATHER
PROLONGED PERIOD OF TS WITH OCNL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT THE
TERMINALS THIS EVE AND SOME LINGERING STRATIFORM RAIN OVERNIGHT.
AFTER FROPA OVERNIGHT EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY CLEARING TUE MORNING.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR
INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.
MI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MIZ077>081.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JT
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
130 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1041 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN FROM RECENT STORMS HAS LED TO FLOODING IN
MANY LOCATIONS...SEE THE LATEST STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS. IN THE
NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE TOWARDS MORNING. OTHERWISE...LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 60S AND LOW TO MID 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
AIRMASS BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTN WITH RAP ANALYSIS
SUGGESTING MLCAPES 2.0-2.5KJ/KG. WINDS ALOFT HAVE DECREASED SOME
SINCE YDAY AS RIDGE HAS BUILT NNW FROM THE SERN CONUS... STILL MODEST
SWLY FLOW WAS RESULTING IN EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 25-30KT
ACROSS THE AREA WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO THERE IS SOME DRY AIR ALOFT EVIDENT ON THE WATER
VAPOR LOOP AND BUFR FCST SOUNDINGS RESULTING IN MAX SFC DELTA
THETA-E VALUES >30K... SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR MICROBURSTS AND
CONSIDERABLE CAPE THROUGH THE -10C TO -30C LAYER SUPPORTING HAIL
GROWTH WITH ANY DEEP CONVECTION. MAIN FORCING MECHANISM APPEARS
TO BE A WK SHRTWV MOVG NE ACROSS NWRN IL WITH STORMS NOW DVLPG TO
ITS S-SE ACROSS CENTRAL IL/IN.
ANOTHER SHRTWV OVER THE SRN PLAINS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE INTO THE
WRN GRTLKS REGION TONIGHT AND THEN EAST OVER THE TOP OF THE SERN
CONUS RIDGE ON SUNDAY. EXPECT AN MCS WILL DEVELOP AT NOSE OF LLJ
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE TONIGHT IMPACTING NWRN PORTION OF THE
CWA FIRST... THEN SHIFTING EAST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. GIVEN
THIS EXPECTATION WILL BE BUMPING UP POPS FROM CHC TO LIKELY FOR
TONIGHT OVER MOST OF THE CWA... WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE TO GOING
LIKELYS FOR SUNDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL A POSSIBILITY IN THIS TIMEFRAME
GIVEN PWATS AROUND 2"... SMALL FCST MBE VECTORS... AND EXPECTED
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH LOWS TONIGHT AROUND 70. EXPECT CLOUDS
SHOWERS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO HOLD TEMPS DOWN A BIT OVER RECENT DAYS
ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS FCST IN THE L80S.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL PERSIST OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL APPROACH
THE JUNE CLIMATOLOGICAL RECORDS NEAR 2.25 INCHES ON SEVERAL
OCCASIONS. GIVEN A LONG DURATION OF THESE HIGH VALUES...CAPE VALUES
GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000 J/KG COMBINED WITH A DEEP WARM CLOUD
LAYER...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING FLOODING.
HAVE UPDATED THE HYDROLOGICAL OUT THAT WAS ISSUED TO REFLECT THE
RISK OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING. WPC/NCEP WAS INDICATING A SEVEN DAY
AXIS OF 6 INCHES OF HEAVY RAIN NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVED FROM ILLINOIS
TO OHIO. THESE HIGH AMOUNTS ARE SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST RUNS OF THE
GFS...ECMWF AND THE CANADIAN GEM. ALSO...RECENT RAINFALL ANALYSIS BY
AHPS SHOW 2 WEEK TOTAL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 2 AND 6 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY
7 INCHES OF RAIN. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS SINCE MAY 31ST ARE SUPPORTED
BY COCORAHS OBSERVATIONS. ALL CONDSIDERED...HAVE UPDATED THE ESF
STATEMENT WITH THESE CONCERNS. OTHERWISE...THERE COULD BE A SHORT
BREAK IN THE HUMID PATTERN LATE THIS WEEK...BUT FOR NOW...WAS
HESITANT TO LOWER SUPERBLEND RAIN CHANCES. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES
APPEAR FAIRLY LOW THIS PERIOD...NOT COUNTING THE CHANCES FOR
FLOODING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING BRIEF BREAK IN CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA
BUT MORE STORMS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING AS MULTIPLE EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES LIFT NORTHEAST IN EXCEPTIONALLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT.
CONVECTION CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF CHICAGO MAY CLIP KSBN A BIT
EARLIER BUT LATEST HI-RES/RAPID UPDATE MODELS SUGGEST THIS
ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN AND STAY JUST NORTHWEST OF THE TERMINAL. HAVE
THEREFORE LEFT OUT ANY THUNDER MENTION BUT SHOWERS WILL BE
INCREASINGLY LIKELY AS NEXT WAVE APPROACHES. BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING REMAINS LOW.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...AGD
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
100 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE FORECAST TODAY WAS PRECIP CHANCES...OR LACK
THEREOF AND TEMPERATURES. TRENDED TOWARD A DRIER FORECAST FOR
TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN TO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE DRIER
FORECAST FOR TODAY AND UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE NAM/ECMWF.
A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER IOWA IS SLOW TO SLIDE
EAST-NORTHEAST TODAY AND SHOULD KEEP THE PRECIP ACTIVITY...IF ANY
DEVELOPS...CONFINED TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. NAM SHOWS A FEW
RIPPLES OF THETA-E ADVECTION AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TODAY OVER SOUTHERN IOWA. 14.06Z HRRR AND 14.03Z HOPWRF SHOW
ISOLATED POP-UP TS/SHOWERS BUT WEAK SHEAR AND MINIMAL INSTABILITY
WILL KEEP ANYTHING FROM BEING LONG-LIVED. STILL...THE AIRMASS HAS
NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS WRT TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGE IN THE 1.5-2.0 INCH
RANGE AND WARM LAYER CLOUD DEPTHS RANGE FROM 3800-4000 METERS IN
SOUTHERN IOWA. HENCE...IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP IT SHOULD HAVE SOME
DECENT RAINFALL RATES FOR SHORT STINT BUT NOT CONCERNED WITH FLASH
FLOODING DUE TO THE SHORT-LIVED NATURE OF STORMS AND LACK OF
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TODAY.
FOR TEMPERATURES...SINCE WENT DRY ACROSS THE WEST TO NORTH AND
LOWERED POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST...LEANED TOWARD RAISING MAX TEMPS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES. MOS GUIDANCE HAS CAUGHT ONTO THIS TREND AND
LEANED CLOSER THE METMOS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOUTHERN
IOWA LOOKS TO REMAIN THE COOLEST WITH THE MORE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIP CHANCES.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
IN THE EXTENDED...PATTERN TO EVOLVE VERY SLOWLY THIS WEEK...WITH
SOME WARMING TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE MUCH COOLER AIR
BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE REGION. LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AGAIN
TONIGHT...MODELS OF LITTLE ASSISTANCE LAST NIGHT THOUGH RAIN DID
FALL JUST TO THE EAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY. SFC ANALYSIS
THIS EVENING SHOWS THAT THE BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION YESTERDAY
LIFTED NORTHEAST AND BASICALLY WEAKENED. WHAT WAVE DID EXIST ALOFT
ALSO LIFTED MORE NORTHEAST THAN NORTH RESULTING IN THE H850
MOISTURE CHANNEL FOCUSED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE AREA...KEEPING
THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL IN EASTERN IOWA
TO WISCONSIN. NEXT CHALLENGE IS THE UPSTREAM WAVE PROGGED TO
AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LEE SIDE TROUGH ADVERTISED TO
DRIFT NORTHEAST ONCE AGAIN WITH ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM COOL FRONT
HEADING SOUTHEAST TOWARD IOWA MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE
TWO SYSTEMS /SHOULD/ RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS BUT LIKE LAST
NIGHT...SIMILAR WEAKENING OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE AND LIGHT
WINDS AT H850 MAY RESULT IN A MORE NARROW BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTH OF THE REGION...THOUGH COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD
INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS WEAK LOW LEVEL JET FORMS OVER MISSOURI.
FOR NOW HAVE CUT BACK ON CHANCES NORTH WITH FOCUS CLOSER TO THE
SOUTH THIRD OF IOWA TOWARD THE MISSOURI BORDER LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY. AS THE COOL FRONT APPROACHES NORTHWEST IOWA LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...LIKELY THAT ONLY SHOWERS AND ISO
THUNDER WILL OCCUR NORTH UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON... WHEN ACROSS THE
SOUTH THE BOUNDARY BECOMES MORE ACTIVE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER RETURNS. AT THIS
TIME AM NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN TERMS OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL
IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS SO WILL NOT NEED HEADLINES. THOUGH STORMS MAY
BE SLOW MOVERS...LIKELY THAT WIND FIELDS WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH TO
KEEP STORMS FROM ORGANIZING.
PER PREVIOUS FORECASTS...TUESDAY LOOKS COOLER AND LESS HUMID
OVERALL WITH ABOUT A DAY OF MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS BEFORE ANOTHER
WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ONCE THE HIGH RETREATS EAST TUESDAY
NIGHT...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL INDUCE A LEE SIDE LOW
AND ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY. FINALLY
TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD A MORE SIGNIFICANT NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM SHOULD ARRIVE LATE IN THE WEEK. TIMING IS STILL IN
QUESTION BUT THE MODELS TODAY ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SOME MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION...POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S AGAIN BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A LOT DEPENDS ON CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS AND IF A H700 CAP INDEED FORMS. WITH A BAND OF MUCH STRONGER
WESTERLIES INTERACTING WITH THE VERY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS BY
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THE STAGE SHOULD BE SET FOR AN ACTIVE PERIOD
OF SUMMER STORMS BEFORE MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES ON SUNDAY. SOME
TIMING ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS RANGE...BUT THE SIGNAL FOR MORE
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS BECOMING MORE
APPARENT.
&&
.AVIATION...14/18Z
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
SCT SHRA SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON WITH A POSSIBLE BREAK IN THE EARLY EVENING THEN
CHANCES INCREASE TOWARDS 06Z. WE WILL HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE
PASS OVERNIGHT BRINGING A POTENTIAL FOR TSRA WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
THEN LATE IN THE PERIOD A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS TAF
SITES. OCNL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MAINLY SRN TAF LOCATIONS IS ABOUT THE EASIEST WAY TO SUM UP
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TAF FORECAST PD. SFC WND WILL GENERALLY BE
SOUTHERLY AT 5-15KTS SWITCHING TO THE W AND NW WITH THE FROPA FROM NW
TO SE ACROSS THE STATE BEGINNING AFT 14Z.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...FAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1235 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
06Z SFC DATA SUGGESTS A WEAK FRONT/BOUNDARY FROM SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO NORTHEAST IOWA. A SECONDARY FRONT/BOUNDARY RAN FROM
CENTRAL INDIANA INTO SOUTHERN IOWA. DEW POINTS NORTH OF THE FIRST
BOUNDARY WERE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. SOUTH OF THE SECOND BOUNDARY
DEW POINTS WERE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
THE WEAK CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS/SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNRISE. A
SATURATED ATMOSPHERE COMBINED WITH WEAK LIFT FROM TWO SEPARATE
BOUNDARIES WILL ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PERSIST
THROUGH SUNRISE. ANY BRIEF CLEARING THAT OCCURS WILL ALLOW PATCHY
FOG TO DEVELOP.
AFTER SUNRISE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
AREA WITH A GRADUAL DECAY FROM MID TO LATE MORNING AND INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IF TRENDS FROM THE RAP ARE CORRECT...A
NEW ROUND OF SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THE I-80 CORRIDOR EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
ANY WEAK HEATING THAT OCCURS DURING THE DAY WILL ALLOW A NEW ROUND
OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
TONIGHT...INTERNAL SIGNALS FROM THE MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPING BETWEEN KOMA AND KSTJ. IF THIS
SCENARIO IS CORRECT...THIS STORM COMPLEX WOULD SLOWLY MOVE EAST OR
EAST NORTHEAST AND MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE CONTINUED
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE COMBINED WITH WEAK FLOW
ALOFT POINTS TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER
STORMS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
DRY WEATHER DAYS FOR THE ENTIRE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO BE HARD TO COME
BY...AS OUR EXTENDED FORECAST IS DOMINATED BY WEAK FLOW...AND OUR
CWA IS ON THE PERIPHERY OF A VERY MOIST AIRMASS. THIS TYPE OF
PATTERN DOES NOT REQUIRE STRONG FORCING FOR RAIN TO TAKE PLACE...AS
NOTED BY THE PAST 36 HOURS...WHERE THE RAINS JUST KEEP FALLING. IT
DOES APPEAR THAT AS A TROPICAL LOW MOVES UP INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY...WE MAY SEE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE
TO PROVIDE A DRY PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY IN THE NORTH. AS
HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW DAYS...THERE SHOULD BE A GENERAL
DIURNAL UPTICK IN COVERAGE OF STORMS...INCLUDING A PERIOD WHERE
STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINS WILL BE A THREAT. THESE MAY EVOLVE
INTO CLUSTERS...BEFORE DECAYING TO SHOWERS LIKE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.
THE BEST THREAT FOR RAINS DOES SEEM TO BE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA...WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE OVER IOWA AND
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. AS SAID...FORCING IS WEAK...BUT WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE AND NO CAP...WE SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
OF STORMS. SPC DOES HAVE OUR EASTERN CWA IN SLIGHT FOR DAY 2. I
BELIEVE THAT THREAT IS LARGELY DIURNAL...AND PROBABLY TIED MAINLY
HEAVY RAIN LOADED DOWNDRAFTS. WITHOUT A CAP...WE SHOULD READILY USE
UP OUR CAPE...RATHER THAN GETTING THINGS TOO UNSTABLE...THUS I THINK
THE THREAT IS LIMITED TO ISOLATED EVENTS. WHILE NOT A WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAIN EVENT...ISOLATED HEAVY RAINS TOTALS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ANY OF THESE COULD BE PROBLEMATIC FOR A
FLASH FLOOD THREAT GIVEN HOW VERY SATURATED OUR SOILS ARE AT THIS
POINT. HOWEVER...SINCE THE THREAT IS NOT CLEAR IN WHERE THE HEAVY
TOTALS WILL BE...IN SCATTERED CONVECTION...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
NOT BEING ISSUED YET.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...IS CONCERNING. THERE ARE SIGNS
OF A PREDECESSOR RAIN EVENT...OR PRE. A HEAVY RAIN EVENT...THAT
COULD OCCUR IN OUR CWA. THIS TYPE OF EVENT OCCURS WITH A LANDFALLING
TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE GULF...AND WESTERLIES IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
IN SHORT...WE WOULD HAVE SOME SUPPORT FOR TRAINING CONVECTION...AND
TROPICAL MOISTURE WELL DISPLACED FROM THE LANDFALLING SYSTEM. AT
THIS POINT...SIGNS ARE NOT CONFIDENT...BUT I FIND IT TROUBLING THAT
THE ECMWF PLACES AN ACTIVE STALLED SURFACE FRONT OVER IOWA TO
INDIANA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH A SHORT WAVE LOCATED IN
THE DAKOTAS. IN ANY CASE...THE GFS IS NOT SHOWING THIS...BUT IT
NEEDS TO BE WATCHED.
BEYOND THIS...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE
CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...HOPEFULLY RESULTING IN AT
LEAST ONE DRY DAY BEHIND IT. NEEDLESS TO SAY...WITH WEST SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...AND PLENTY OF WARMTH AND HUMIDITY AROUND...I HAVE NO
FAITH IN THAT PROSPECT. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN....WHICH EXTENDS
THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND...OFFERS A HIGH CHANCE FOR DAILY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS SAID IN MANY OF OUR PRODUCTS THE PAST
FEW DAYS...WE MAY BE MOVING INTO A PERIOD OF RATHER WIDESPREAD
FLOODING...BUT AS TO WHAT SIGNIFICANCE AND WHAT RIVERS...THAT IS YET
TO BE DETERMINED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO REMAINS IN PLACE WITH BKN-
OVC COVERAGE OF CLOUDS WITH BASES 3-6K AGL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS REACHED. ALL TERMINALS TO LIKELY
EXPERIENCE SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS HANDLED
AS A TEMPO GROUP WITH A PERIOD OF HIGH IFR OR LOWER END MVFR CONDITIONS.
A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN KANSAS WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINS OF THUNDERSTORMS
AND SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. LOWER END MVFR TO HIGHER
END IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. AFTER 15/14Z...LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN OF .5 TO 2K AGL AND 1-4 MILES IN FOG WITH A CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN TO CONTINUE INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING. SOME IMPROVEMENT
EXPECTED IN CLOUDS AND FLYING CONDITIONS AROUND 14/18Z.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...NICHOLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
658 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
06Z SFC DATA SUGGESTS A WEAK FRONT/BOUNDARY FROM SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO NORTHEAST IOWA. A SECONDARY FRONT/BOUNDARY RAN FROM
CENTRAL INDIANA INTO SOUTHERN IOWA. DEW POINTS NORTH OF THE FIRST
BOUNDARY WERE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. SOUTH OF THE SECOND BOUNDARY
DEW POINTS WERE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
THE WEAK CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS/SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNRISE. A
SATURATED ATMOSPHERE COMBINED WITH WEAK LIFT FROM TWO SEPARATE
BOUNDARIES WILL ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PERSIST
THROUGH SUNRISE. ANY BRIEF CLEARING THAT OCCURS WILL ALLOW PATCHY
FOG TO DEVELOP.
AFTER SUNRISE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
AREA WITH A GRADUAL DECAY FROM MID TO LATE MORNING AND INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IF TRENDS FROM THE RAP ARE CORRECT...A
NEW ROUND OF SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THE I-80 CORRIDOR EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
ANY WEAK HEATING THAT OCCURS DURING THE DAY WILL ALLOW A NEW ROUND
OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
TONIGHT...INTERNAL SIGNALS FROM THE MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPING BETWEEN KOMA AND KSTJ. IF THIS
SCENARIO IS CORRECT...THIS STORM COMPLEX WOULD SLOWLY MOVE EAST OR
EAST NORTHEAST AND MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE CONTINUED
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE COMBINED WITH WEAK FLOW
ALOFT POINTS TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER
STORMS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
DRY WEATHER DAYS FOR THE ENTIRE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO BE HARD TO COME
BY...AS OUR EXTENDED FORECAST IS DOMINATED BY WEAK FLOW...AND OUR
CWA IS ON THE PERIPHERY OF A VERY MOIST AIRMASS. THIS TYPE OF
PATTERN DOES NOT REQUIRE STRONG FORCING FOR RAIN TO TAKE PLACE...AS
NOTED BY THE PAST 36 HOURS...WHERE THE RAINS JUST KEEP FALLING. IT
DOES APPEAR THAT AS A TROPICAL LOW MOVES UP INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY...WE MAY SEE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE
TO PROVIDE A DRY PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY IN THE NORTH. AS
HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW DAYS...THERE SHOULD BE A GENERAL
DIURNAL UPTICK IN COVERAGE OF STORMS...INCLUDING A PERIOD WHERE
STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINS WILL BE A THREAT. THESE MAY EVOLVE
INTO CLUSTERS...BEFORE DECAYING TO SHOWERS LIKE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.
THE BEST THREAT FOR RAINS DOES SEEM TO BE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA...WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE OVER IOWA AND
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. AS SAID...FORCING IS WEAK...BUT WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE AND NO CAP...WE SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
OF STORMS. SPC DOES HAVE OUR EASTERN CWA IN SLIGHT FOR DAY 2. I
BELIEVE THAT THREAT IS LARGELY DIURNAL...AND PROBABLY TIED MAINLY
HEAVY RAIN LOADED DOWNDRAFTS. WITHOUT A CAP...WE SHOULD READILY USE
UP OUR CAPE...RATHER THAN GETTING THINGS TOO UNSTABLE...THUS I THINK
THE THREAT IS LIMITED TO ISOLATED EVENTS. WHILE NOT A WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAIN EVENT...ISOLATED HEAVY RAINS TOTALS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ANY OF THESE COULD BE PROBLEMATIC FOR A
FLASH FLOOD THREAT GIVEN HOW VERY SATURATED OUR SOILS ARE AT THIS
POINT. HOWEVER...SINCE THE THREAT IS NOT CLEAR IN WHERE THE HEAVY
TOTALS WILL BE...IN SCATTERED CONVECTION...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
NOT BEING ISSUED YET.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...IS CONCERNING. THERE ARE SIGNS
OF A PREDECESSOR RAIN EVENT...OR PRE. A HEAVY RAIN EVENT...THAT
COULD OCCUR IN OUR CWA. THIS TYPE OF EVENT OCCURS WITH A LANDFALLING
TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE GULF...AND WESTERLIES IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
IN SHORT...WE WOULD HAVE SOME SUPPORT FOR TRAINING CONVECTION...AND
TROPICAL MOISTURE WELL DISPLACED FROM THE LANDFALLING SYSTEM. AT
THIS POINT...SIGNS ARE NOT CONFIDENT...BUT I FIND IT TROUBLING THAT
THE ECMWF PLACES AN ACTIVE STALLED SURFACE FRONT OVER IOWA TO
INDIANA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH A SHORT WAVE LOCATED IN
THE DAKOTAS. IN ANY CASE...THE GFS IS NOT SHOWING THIS...BUT IT
NEEDS TO BE WATCHED.
BEYOND THIS...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE
CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...HOPEFULLY RESULTING IN AT
LEAST ONE DRY DAY BEHIND IT. NEEDLESS TO SAY...WITH WEST SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...AND PLENTY OF WARMTH AND HUMIDITY AROUND...I HAVE NO
FAITH IN THAT PROSPECT. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN....WHICH EXTENDS
THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND...OFFERS A HIGH CHANCE FOR DAILY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS SAID IN MANY OF OUR PRODUCTS THE PAST
FEW DAYS...WE MAY BE MOVING INTO A PERIOD OF RATHER WIDESPREAD
FLOODING...BUT AS TO WHAT SIGNIFICANCE AND WHAT RIVERS...THAT IS YET
TO BE DETERMINED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
LIFR TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH 18Z/14
WITH ISOLATED SHRA. AFT 18Z/14 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
VCSH OR VCTS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES. IF A SHRA/TSRA AFFECTS A
TAF SITE...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MIGHT BE
POSSIBLE. AFT 06Z/15 ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS FORECAST TO
AFFECT EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS WITH POTENTIALLY
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
638 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE FORECAST TODAY WAS PRECIP CHANCES...OR LACK
THEREOF AND TEMPERATURES. TRENDED TOWARD A DRIER FORECAST FOR
TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN TO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE DRIER
FORECAST FOR TODAY AND UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE NAM/ECMWF.
A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER IOWA IS SLOW TO SLIDE
EAST-NORTHEAST TODAY AND SHOULD KEEP THE PRECIP ACTIVITY...IF ANY
DEVELOPS...CONFINED TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. NAM SHOWS A FEW
RIPPLES OF THETA-E ADVECTION AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TODAY OVER SOUTHERN IOWA. 14.06Z HRRR AND 14.03Z HOPWRF SHOW
ISOLATED POP-UP TS/SHOWERS BUT WEAK SHEAR AND MINIMAL INSTABILITY
WILL KEEP ANYTHING FROM BEING LONG-LIVED. STILL...THE AIRMASS HAS
NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS WRT TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGE IN THE 1.5-2.0 INCH
RANGE AND WARM LAYER CLOUD DEPTHS RANGE FROM 3800-4000 METERS IN
SOUTHERN IOWA. HENCE...IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP IT SHOULD HAVE SOME
DECENT RAINFALL RATES FOR SHORT STINT BUT NOT CONCERNED WITH FLASH
FLOODING DUE TO THE SHORT-LIVED NATURE OF STORMS AND LACK OF
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TODAY.
FOR TEMPERATURES...SINCE WENT DRY ACROSS THE WEST TO NORTH AND
LOWERED POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST...LEANED TOWARD RAISING MAX TEMPS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES. MOS GUIDANCE HAS CAUGHT ONTO THIS TREND AND
LEANED CLOSER THE METMOS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOUTHERN
IOWA LOOKS TO REMAIN THE COOLEST WITH THE MORE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIP CHANCES.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
IN THE EXTENDED...PATTERN TO EVOLVE VERY SLOWLY THIS WEEK...WITH
SOME WARMING TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE MUCH COOLER AIR
BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE REGION. LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AGAIN
TONIGHT...MODELS OF LITTLE ASSISTANCE LAST NIGHT THOUGH RAIN DID
FALL JUST TO THE EAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY. SFC ANALYSIS
THIS EVENING SHOWS THAT THE BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION YESTERDAY
LIFTED NORTHEAST AND BASICALLY WEAKENED. WHAT WAVE DID EXIST ALOFT
ALSO LIFTED MORE NORTHEAST THAN NORTH RESULTING IN THE H850
MOISTURE CHANNEL FOCUSED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE AREA...KEEPING
THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL IN EASTERN IOWA
TO WISCONSIN. NEXT CHALLENGE IS THE UPSTREAM WAVE PROGGED TO
AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LEE SIDE TROUGH ADVERTISED TO
DRIFT NORTHEAST ONCE AGAIN WITH ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM COOL FRONT
HEADING SOUTHEAST TOWARD IOWA MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE
TWO SYSTEMS /SHOULD/ RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS BUT LIKE LAST
NIGHT...SIMILAR WEAKENING OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE AND LIGHT
WINDS AT H850 MAY RESULT IN A MORE NARROW BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTH OF THE REGION...THOUGH COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD
INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS WEAK LOW LEVEL JET FORMS OVER MISSOURI.
FOR NOW HAVE CUT BACK ON CHANCES NORTH WITH FOCUS CLOSER TO THE
SOUTH THIRD OF IOWA TOWARD THE MISSOURI BORDER LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY. AS THE COOL FRONT APPROACHES NORTHWEST IOWA LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...LIKELY THAT ONLY SHOWERS AND ISO
THUNDER WILL OCCUR NORTH UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON... WHEN ACROSS THE
SOUTH THE BOUNDARY BECOMES MORE ACTIVE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER RETURNS. AT THIS
TIME AM NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN TERMS OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL
IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS SO WILL NOT NEED HEADLINES. THOUGH STORMS MAY
BE SLOW MOVERS...LIKELY THAT WIND FIELDS WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH TO
KEEP STORMS FROM ORGANIZING.
PER PREVIOUS FORECASTS...TUESDAY LOOKS COOLER AND LESS HUMID
OVERALL WITH ABOUT A DAY OF MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS BEFORE ANOTHER
WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ONCE THE HIGH RETREATS EAST TUESDAY
NIGHT...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL INDUCE A LEE SIDE LOW
AND ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY. FINALLY
TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD A MORE SIGNIFICANT NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM SHOULD ARRIVE LATE IN THE WEEK. TIMING IS STILL IN
QUESTION BUT THE MODELS TODAY ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SOME MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION...POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S AGAIN BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A LOT DEPENDS ON CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS AND IF A H700 CAP INDEED FORMS. WITH A BAND OF MUCH STRONGER
WESTERLIES INTERACTING WITH THE VERY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS BY
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THE STAGE SHOULD BE SET FOR AN ACTIVE PERIOD
OF SUMMER STORMS BEFORE MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES ON SUNDAY. SOME
TIMING ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS RANGE...BUT THE SIGNAL FOR MORE
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS BECOMING MORE
APPARENT.
&&
.AVIATION...14/12Z
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
IFR TO MVFR FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 14Z AT THE LATEST THIS MORNING
WITH OTM RECEIVING THE THICKEST FOG ATTM AND SHOULD BE THE LONGEST
TO IMPROVE TO VFR. HAVE VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 14Z FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH REALLY NO CONFIDENCE IN MENTIONING ANY
FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES THIS EVENING. DO HAVE MENTION OF RAIN/TS
AT DSM AND OTM AS THEY HAVE THE BEST SHOT OF ANY PRECIP TONIGHT.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...PODRAZIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
332 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE FORECAST TODAY WAS PRECIP CHANCES...OR LACK
THEREOF AND TEMPERATURES. TRENDED TOWARD A DRIER FORECAST FOR
TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN TO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE DRIER
FORECAST FOR TODAY AND UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE NAM/ECMWF.
A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER IOWA IS SLOW TO SLIDE
EAST-NORTHEAST TODAY AND SHOULD KEEP THE PRECIP ACTIVITY...IF ANY
DEVELOPS...CONFINED TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. NAM SHOWS A FEW
RIPPLES OF THETA-E ADVECTION AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TODAY OVER SOUTHERN IOWA. 14.06Z HRRR AND 14.03Z HOPWRF SHOW
ISOLATED POP-UP TS/SHOWERS BUT WEAK SHEAR AND MINIMAL INSTABILITY
WILL KEEP ANYTHING FROM BEING LONG-LIVED. STILL...THE AIRMASS HAS
NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS WRT TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGE IN THE 1.5-2.0 INCH
RANGE AND WARM LAYER CLOUD DEPTHS RANGE FROM 3800-4000 METERS IN
SOUTHERN IOWA. HENCE...IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP IT SHOULD HAVE SOME
DECENT RAINFALL RATES FOR SHORT STINT BUT NOT CONCERNED WITH FLASH
FLOODING DUE TO THE SHORT-LIVED NATURE OF STORMS AND LACK OF
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TODAY.
FOR TEMPERATURES...SINCE WENT DRY ACROSS THE WEST TO NORTH AND
LOWERED POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST...LEANED TOWARD RAISING MAX TEMPS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES. MOS GUIDANCE HAS CAUGHT ONTO THIS TREND AND
LEANED CLOSER THE METMOS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOUTHERN
IOWA LOOKS TO REMAIN THE COOLEST WITH THE MORE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIP CHANCES.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
IN THE EXTENDED...PATTERN TO EVOLVE VERY SLOWLY THIS WEEK...WITH
SOME WARMING TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE MUCH COOLER AIR
BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE REGION. LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AGAIN
TONIGHT...MODELS OF LITTLE ASSISTANCE LAST NIGHT THOUGH RAIN DID
FALL JUST TO THE EAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY. SFC ANALYSIS
THIS EVENING SHOWS THAT THE BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION YESTERDAY
LIFTED NORTHEAST AND BASICALLY WEAKENED. WHAT WAVE DID EXIST ALOFT
ALSO LIFTED MORE NORTHEAST THAN NORTH RESULTING IN THE H850
MOISTURE CHANNEL FOCUSED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE AREA...KEEPING
THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL IN EASTERN IOWA
TO WISCONSIN. NEXT CHALLENGE IS THE UPSTREAM WAVE PROGGED TO
AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LEE SIDE TROUGH ADVERTISED TO
DRIFT NORTHEAST ONCE AGAIN WITH ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM COOL FRONT
HEADING SOUTHEAST TOWARD IOWA MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE
TWO SYSTEMS /SHOULD/ RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS BUT LIKE LAST
NIGHT...SIMILAR WEAKENING OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE AND LIGHT
WINDS AT H850 MAY RESULT IN A MORE NARROW BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTH OF THE REGION...THOUGH COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD
INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS WEAK LOW LEVEL JET FORMS OVER MISSOURI.
FOR NOW HAVE CUT BACK ON CHANCES NORTH WITH FOCUS CLOSER TO THE
SOUTH THIRD OF IOWA TOWARD THE MISSOURI BORDER LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY. AS THE COOL FRONT APPROACHES NORTHWEST IOWA LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...LIKELY THAT ONLY SHOWERS AND ISO
THUNDER WILL OCCUR NORTH UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON... WHEN ACROSS THE
SOUTH THE BOUNDARY BECOMES MORE ACTIVE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER RETURNS. AT THIS
TIME AM NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN TERMS OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL
IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS SO WILL NOT NEED HEADLINES. THOUGH STORMS MAY
BE SLOW MOVERS...LIKELY THAT WIND FIELDS WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH TO
KEEP STORMS FROM ORGANIZING.
PER PREVIOUS FORECASTS...TUESDAY LOOKS COOLER AND LESS HUMID
OVERALL WITH ABOUT A DAY OF MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS BEFORE ANOTHER
WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ONCE THE HIGH RETREATS EAST TUESDAY
NIGHT...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL INDUCE A LEE SIDE LOW
AND ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY. FINALLY
TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD A MORE SIGNIFICANT NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM SHOULD ARRIVE LATE IN THE WEEK. TIMING IS STILL IN
QUESTION BUT THE MODELS TODAY ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SOME MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION...POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S AGAIN BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A LOT DEPENDS ON CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS AND IF A H700 CAP INDEED FORMS. WITH A BAND OF MUCH STRONGER
WESTERLIES INTERACTING WITH THE VERY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS BY
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THE STAGE SHOULD BE SET FOR AN ACTIVE PERIOD
OF SUMMER STORMS BEFORE MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES ON SUNDAY. SOME
TIMING ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS RANGE...BUT THE SIGNAL FOR MORE
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS BECOMING MORE
APPARENT.
&&
.AVIATION...14/06Z
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
VCSH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT KOTM FOR BEGINNING OF PERIOD BEFORE
DISSIPATING. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR SITES TO DROP
TO MVFR OR IFR VISIBILITIES AT TIMES NEAR 12Z...WITH MVFR
CEILINGS ALSO POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE AFTER
12Z...WITH WINDS BEING SOUTHERLY THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD. LATE IN
PERIOD MAY SEE SHRA/TSRA AT SOUTHERN SITES KDSM/KOTM BUT HAVE NOT
INCLUDED MENTION ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING/PLACEMENT.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...AWB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
319 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
06Z SFC DATA SUGGESTS A WEAK FRONT/BOUNDARY FROM SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO NORTHEAST IOWA. A SECONDARY FRONT/BOUNDARY RAN FROM
CENTRAL INDIANA INTO SOUTHERN IOWA. DEW POINTS NORTH OF THE FIRST
BOUNDARY WERE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. SOUTH OF THE SECOND BOUNDARY
DEW POINTS WERE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
THE WEAK CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS/SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNRISE. A
SATURATED ATMOSPHERE COMBINED WITH WEAK LIFT FROM TWO SEPARATE
BOUNDARIES WILL ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PERSIST
THROUGH SUNRISE. ANY BRIEF CLEARING THAT OCCURS WILL ALLOW PATCHY
FOG TO DEVELOP.
AFTER SUNRISE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
AREA WITH A GRADUAL DECAY FROM MID TO LATE MORNING AND INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IF TRENDS FROM THE RAP ARE CORRECT...A
NEW ROUND OF SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THE I-80 CORRIDOR EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
ANY WEAK HEATING THAT OCCURS DURING THE DAY WILL ALLOW A NEW ROUND
OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
TONIGHT...INTERNAL SIGNALS FROM THE MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPING BETWEEN KOMA AND KSTJ. IF THIS
SCENARIO IS CORRECT...THIS STORM COMPLEX WOULD SLOWLY MOVE EAST OR
EAST NORTHEAST AND MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE CONTINUED
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE COMBINED WITH WEAK FLOW
ALOFT POINTS TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER
STORMS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
DRY WEATHER DAYS FOR THE ENTIRE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO BE HARD TO COME
BY...AS OUR EXTENDED FORECAST IS DOMINATED BY WEAK FLOW...AND OUR
CWA IS ON THE PERIPHERY OF A VERY MOIST AIRMASS. THIS TYPE OF
PATTERN DOES NOT REQUIRE STRONG FORCING FOR RAIN TO TAKE PLACE...AS
NOTED BY THE PAST 36 HOURS...WHERE THE RAINS JUST KEEP FALLING. IT
DOES APPEAR THAT AS A TROPICAL LOW MOVES UP INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY...WE MAY SEE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE
TO PROVIDE A DRY PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY IN THE NORTH. AS
HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW DAYS...THERE SHOULD BE A GENERAL
DIURNAL UPTICK IN COVERAGE OF STORMS...INCLUDING A PERIOD WHERE
STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINS WILL BE A THREAT. THESE MAY EVOLVE
INTO CLUSTERS...BEFORE DECAYING TO SHOWERS LIKE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.
THE BEST THREAT FOR RAINS DOES SEEM TO BE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA...WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE OVER IOWA AND
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. AS SAID...FORCING IS WEAK...BUT WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE AND NO CAP...WE SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
OF STORMS. SPC DOES HAVE OUR EASTERN CWA IN SLIGHT FOR DAY 2. I
BELIEVE THAT THREAT IS LARGELY DIURNAL...AND PROBABLY TIED MAINLY
HEAVY RAIN LOADED DOWNDRAFTS. WITHOUT A CAP...WE SHOULD READILY USE
UP OUR CAPE...RATHER THAN GETTING THINGS TOO UNSTABLE...THUS I THINK
THE THREAT IS LIMITED TO ISOLATED EVENTS. WHILE NOT A WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAIN EVENT...ISOLATED HEAVY RAINS TOTALS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ANY OF THESE COULD BE PROBLEMATIC FOR A
FLASH FLOOD THREAT GIVEN HOW VERY SATURATED OUR SOILS ARE AT THIS
POINT. HOWEVER...SINCE THE THREAT IS NOT CLEAR IN WHERE THE HEAVY
TOTALS WILL BE...IN SCATTERED CONVECTION...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
NOT BEING ISSUED YET.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...IS CONCERNING. THERE ARE SIGNS
OF A PREDECESSOR RAIN EVENT...OR PRE. A HEAVY RAIN EVENT...THAT
COULD OCCUR IN OUR CWA. THIS TYPE OF EVENT OCCURS WITH A LANDFALLING
TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE GULF...AND WESTERLIES IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
IN SHORT...WE WOULD HAVE SOME SUPPORT FOR TRAINING CONVECTION...AND
TROPICAL MOISTURE WELL DISPLACED FROM THE LANDFALLING SYSTEM. AT
THIS POINT...SIGNS ARE NOT CONFIDENT...BUT I FIND IT TROUBLING THAT
THE ECMWF PLACES AN ACTIVE STALLED SURFACE FRONT OVER IOWA TO
INDIANA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH A SHORT WAVE LOCATED IN
THE DAKOTAS. IN ANY CASE...THE GFS IS NOT SHOWING THIS...BUT IT
NEEDS TO BE WATCHED.
BEYOND THIS...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE
CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...HOPEFULLY RESULTING IN AT
LEAST ONE DRY DAY BEHIND IT. NEEDLESS TO SAY...WITH WEST SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...AND PLENTY OF WARMTH AND HUMIDITY AROUND...I HAVE NO
FAITH IN THAT PROSPECT. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN....WHICH EXTENDS
THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND...OFFERS A HIGH CHANCE FOR DAILY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS SAID IN MANY OF OUR PRODUCTS THE PAST
FEW DAYS...WE MAY BE MOVING INTO A PERIOD OF RATHER WIDESPREAD
FLOODING...BUT AS TO WHAT SIGNIFICANCE AND WHAT RIVERS...THAT IS YET
TO BE DETERMINED.&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE TAPERING OFF IN COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES. PCPN MENTION
CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON NEXT 6 HOURS AT TERMINALS WHERE CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHEST. OVERNIGHT INTO MID-MORNING SUNDAY EXPECT LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG DEVELOPMENT IN LIGHT WINDS AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS WIDESPREAD WITH SOME VLIFR POSSIBLE. SLOW
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY TO MVFR AND LOW VFR CONDITIONS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MORE PREVALENT DURING THE
HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
635 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY:
NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WHILE A MID-UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTION OF
THE NORTHERN BRANCH WAVE...WILL CONTINUE PUSHING INTO SOUTHEASTERN
KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTHWEST
TUESDAY MORNING...THEN WASHING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. ANOMALOUSLY
RICH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIRMASS (~1.75 IN.) WILL PERSIST OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS AND WILL HAVE RELATIVELY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES IN
THOSE AREAS...WHERE WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS POSSIBLE UNDER
WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT. LATEST SPC HRRR VERSION PUSHES CURRENT
CONVECTION OUT OF SOUTHEAST KS BY MID EVENING...WITH A SIGNIFICANT LULL
THEREAFTER. WOULD THINK EVEN IF THIS HAPPENS...THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SHEAR AXIS EMANATING FROM WEST TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD...COULD IGNITE
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ~4KM OR GREATER
AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS FAVOR LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. IN
ADDITION...SOUNDING PROFILES WOULD ALSO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED WET
MICROBURST OR TWO.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY:
WITH REGARD TO THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE HEADING
INTO SOUTH TEXAS LATE TONIGHT...THE GFS...ECMWF...AND NAM-WRF OFFER
VASTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. THIS IS NOT SURPRISING GIVEN THE
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY THAT THIS SYSTEM
COULD IMPACT FAR SOUTHEAST KS SOMETIME LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY IF THE GFS AND NAM ARE MORE CORRECT...ALTHOUGH THE NAM
APPEARS TOO FAST WITH THE NORTH-NORTHEAST MOVEMENT. THE ECMWF
INDICATES ANY IMPACTS TO SOUTHEAST KS WOULD NOT COME UNTIL FRIDAY-
FRIDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...OVERALL CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/TRACK OF THIS
DISTURBANCE IS LOW AT THIS JUNCTURE.
NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES BUT HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST DURING
THIS ENTIRE PERIOD.
JMC
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
THE REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ARE PROGGED TO PUSH WELL
EAST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND...WHILE A FAIRLY
STRONG/AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE ECMWF WAS STRONGER WITH THE
AMPLIFCATION...DRIVING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. IT HAS AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. THE GFS DID NOT AMPLIFY THE SHORTWAVE AS MUCH...AND AS A
RESULT BRINGS THE FRONT TO CENTRAL KS NEAR I-70 BEFORE STALLING THE
BOUNDARY. A COMPROMISE OF THESE SOLUTIONS WOULD BRING THE FRONT INTO
THE HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES RATHER WARM...ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE IN
THE FORECAST...COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED.
JMC
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LINGER OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS
TONIGHT...AS SLOW MOVING SURFACE FRONT RESIDES OVER THAT AREA.
OTHERWISE LOW CLOUDS WILL FILL IN ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL VEER
FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT THEN TO THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE MORNING.
THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
JAKUB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 68 83 69 86 / 40 50 20 20
HUTCHINSON 66 83 67 87 / 30 20 20 20
NEWTON 67 82 68 85 / 40 40 20 20
ELDORADO 68 82 69 85 / 50 60 30 40
WINFIELD-KWLD 69 83 70 85 / 50 60 40 40
RUSSELL 63 83 66 88 / 20 10 20 10
GREAT BEND 64 83 66 88 / 20 20 20 10
SALINA 66 83 68 87 / 20 20 20 20
MCPHERSON 66 83 68 87 / 30 20 20 20
COFFEYVILLE 70 82 71 82 / 70 70 60 60
CHANUTE 69 82 70 83 / 70 60 60 60
IOLA 69 82 69 83 / 70 60 50 60
PARSONS-KPPF 70 82 71 83 / 70 70 60 60
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
558 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2015
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 233 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
08Z water vapor imagery continues to show a disorganized area of mid
level low pressure from the southern Rockies through the central
plains. Meanwhile the mean westerlies remain well north across the
northern Rockies/Plains and southern Canada. At the surface,
observations show a warm and moist airmass remains over the region
with weak surface low pressure in the lee of the Rockies while a
surface ridge remains over the southeastern U.S.
For today and tonight, the forecast is generally a persistence
forecast as little has changed in the environment. A moist airmass
with modest instability and weak environmental shear is progged to
persist. Additionally there is little if any inhibition to a surface
parcel. However forcing for precip is weak. Aside from a weak vort
max potentially moving through, there is not a lot of forcing. And
lift for a surface parcel is no better due to the lack of a surface
front. Even isentropic surfaces show disorganized upglide at best
given a weak low level jet progged by the models through tonight.
With this in mind, think showers and thunderstorms are likely to
remain scattered through the day today. Therefore have POPs in the
30 to 50 percent range. For tonight, models suggest a weakening
front may move into north central KS late tonight. Also a mid level
shear axis or deformation zone is progged to move into northeast KS.
This could contribute to a more focused area for showers and
thunderstorms. With this in mind have continued with some likely
POPs overnight. For highs today, models have slightly warmer temps
at 925 MB and 850 MB. Because of this have highs a degree or two
warmer than yesterday`s expecting most areas to warm into the lower
80s. Lows tonight should be pretty similar to the past couple
mornings with readings in the mid 60s to around 70.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 233 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
Overall mid level flow pattern in the extended remains unsettled
with more windows of dry conditions possible.
Main jetstream across the northern CONUS will help to lift the
remaining pieces of the cutoff low out of the region Monday and
Tuesday. Latest guidance continues to be persistent in lifting the
first weak PV anomaly northeastward during the afternoon, pushing
another frontal boundary out of Nebraska into northeast Kansas.
While scattered showers may be possible during the early afternoon
over north central KS, it may take until late afternoon or early
evening when the low levels can become unstable again where optimal
low level forcing resides over the boundary. Upper low axis differs
slightly by 00Z Tuesday so there is some uncertainty in exact
placement of heaviest rainfall. Overall, guidance has progged a
modest band of a half to one inch QPF developing south of Interstate
70 Monday into Tuesday afternoon. Placed likely precip chances in
this area, expecting the activity to shift east of the CWA Tuesday afternoon.
Mostly cloudy skies stick around during the afternoon, keeping highs
slightly below normal values around 80 degrees.
As the cutoff finally exits the area, mid level winds veer from the
west, carrying a series of shortwave troughs through the region
Wednesday through Saturday. While ample moisture remains over the
region on Wednesday afternoon, there is no definite boundary to focus
precipitation with weak forcing aloft so have kept low end chances
for precip. While still differing on timing, the GFS and ECMWF are
persistent in developing showers and thunderstorms over a frontal
boundary late Wednesday evening into Thursday. Areas near the Nebraska
border currently have the best precip chances. Friday may end up
being mostly dry as a more organized upper wave develops across the
Inter-Mountain west. This system is progged to bring more rain
chances to the region for Saturday. Dewpoints during the week will
remain near 70 degrees while temps warm up, resulting in hot and
muggy afternoons. Highs climb into the upper 80s each day while
overnight lows may only fall to near 70 degrees.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 558 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
With convection expected to be scattered through the day, have
little confidence in timing TS for the terminals. Rather than
broad brush with VCTS, have tried to use TEMPO groups to highlight
times when storms may be slightly more probable. Using a linear
extrapolation on the cluster coming out of the ICT area, storms
may impact the TOP and FOE terminals around 15Z and remain just
east of MHK. The RAP and HRRR suggest a vort max lifting north
from the TX panhandle causing increased TS over central KS, possibly
impacting MHK around 21Z and remaining just west of TOP and FOE.
This is simply a best guess and adjustments will likely be needed.
Have kept VFR CIGS and VSBY prevailing through the day. If
convection moves in, there may easily be MVFR VSBY if not IFR from
moderate or heavy rainfall.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
418 AM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE THE CHANCE OF RAINFALL. SATELLITE
SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKY PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC INTO
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. IN GENERAL A BROAD TROUGH RESIDES OVER THE
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN PORTION. MANY SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN THIS FLOW. PERSISTENT
CIRCULATION/BROAD WEAK TROUGH CONTINUES TO RESIDE TO OUR SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST. MID LEVELS LOOK TO BE RATHER DRY OVER OUR AREA BUT THAT
MOISTURE IS NOT TOO FAR AWAY. GULF MOISTURE IS POURING INTO THE AREA.
AT JET LEVEL...THE GFS FOLLOWED BY THE CANADIAN IS DOING BETTER ON
THE JET POSITION IN OUR REGION. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS...CANADIAN
AND NAM LOOKED TO BE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE REST. THE
ECMWF AND THE SREF DID THE BEST ON THE SURFACE PATTERN. ALL THE
MODELS INITIALED WELL ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS BRINGING A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THIS MORNING. THIS ADVECTION IS SPREADING STRATUS AND FOG NORTH INTO
THE AREA UNDERNEATH A THICK BLANKET OF MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER. AT THIS TIME THE EVENING ADJUSTMENT FOR THE FOG LOOKS GOOD
AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY MODELS HAVE A WEAK RIGHT REAR QUADRANT
OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE AREA. THIS AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH HAVE CAUSED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS JUST TO THE EAST
AND SOUTHEAST OF AREA. BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND MODEL DATA THIS
CONVECTION LOOKS TO STAY EAST OF OUR AREA SO WILL KEEP THE DRY
MORNING FORECAST THE DAY SHIFT PUT IN THERE.
MODELS DIFFERING A LOT WITH HOW THEY ARE HANDLING THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY. IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME JET LIFT WILL BE
AROUND THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT.
YESTERDAY THE NAM WAS THE ONLY MODEL THAT DEVELOPED A MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION AND BROUGHT IT NORTH. WELL TODAY ALL THE OUTPUT IS DOING
THE SAME THING. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY THE GFS HAS BEEN
BETTER WITH THE MID LEVEL FEATURES AND IS MATCHING UP REALLY WELL
WITH SATELLITE.
THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THIS CIRCULATION BRUSHES THE SOUTHEAST
THIRD OF AREA BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE
AFFECTING THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA IS COMING IN A LITTLE
SLOWER AS A SURFACE CONVERGENCE AREA SETS UP OVER MY EASTERN
COLORADO COUNTIES. SO AS YESTERDAY HAVE THE POPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
AND NORTH FRINGES BUT HAVE THEM ONLY IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY
FOR NOW.
MODELS MOVE THE JET FURTHER EAST AND NORTH AND MOST OF THE DATA
WOULD SUPPORT THE JET BEING NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER SOME WEAK JET LIFT STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE.
TROUGH AFFECTING THE SOUTHEAST STEADILY MOVES EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS THE WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH AS WELL. COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA IN THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT. PREVIOUS
POP FORECAST HAD THIS HANDLED WELL AND MADE NO ADJUSTMENTS TO IT.
CLOUD COVER WILL DETERMINE HOW WARM IT GETS. COULD HAVE MULTIPLE
LAYERS OF CLOUD COVER. AT THIS TIME...THE LOWER LEVEL CLOUD COVER
LOOKS LIKE IT CLEARS BY LATE MORNING. MADE THE TEMPERATURES WARMER
CLOUD TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK RIGHT REAR QUADRANT REMAIN NEAR OR OVER
THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. COLD FRONT MAKES
IT THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY VERY EARLY IN DAY. IN REGARDS
TO PRECIPITATION AM NOT VERY IMPRESSED WITH THE CHANCES THE MODEL
OUTPUT IS SHOWING. AFTER A SLIGHT CHANCE EARLY IN THE MORNING
FROM THE EXITING EASTERN TROUGH...MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND
THAT SYSTEM MEANING LITTLE TO NO LIFT. FRONT IS WELL SOUTH OF AREA
WITH ONLY THE LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE PROVIDING SOME LIFT.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING THAT A LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL BE
PLACE AND WILL MORE THAN LIKELY SQUASH CONVECTION FOR MOST OF THE
REST OF THE DAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST LATE IN
THE DAY. THINKING IS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS IN MY
FAR WEST. HOWEVER...TO BETTER MATCH UP WITH MY NEIGHBORS AND TO
ACCOUNT FOR ANOTHER SMALL WAVE THAT MAY COME THROUGH...INSERTED A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON. AFTER
MORNING STRATUS...EXPECT CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE. COOLED TEMPERATURES
FROM WHAT I EXPECT TODAY BUT AGAIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE DETERMINED
BY HOW LONG THE CLOUDS STICK AROUND.
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT GETS CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA
LATE IN THE NIGHT. THE BEST MID LEVEL LIFT OF THE PERIOD MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. BETWEEN THAT AND THE JET
LIFT...THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FURTHER SOUTH.
BOUNDARY RELATIVE HUMIDITY INCREASES LATE IN THE NIGHT AND EXPECT
STRATUS AND SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...LIFT FROM OVERNIGHT SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO KEEP
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. PATCHY FOG SHOULD ALSO BURN OFF BY LATE MORNING.
THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT GETS CLOSE TO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A DEFINITE BUT WEAK RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF THE JET AFFECTING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA
DURING THE NIGHT. THAT AND A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL AFFECT THE AREA
FROM THE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT THIS THE NORTH WILL
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA HAVING
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE WARMER AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ACROSS
THE AREA AS A LEE TROUGH DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE WESTERLY CROSS
MOUNTAIN FLOW. WINDS MAY INCREASE INTO THE BREEZY CATEGORY IN THE
WESTERN HALF.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE US IS STAYING VERY CONSISTENT WITH ZONAL
FLOW IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE US AND TWO STRONG RIDGES IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST...ALONG WITH A TROUGH BETWEEN THE TWO HIGHS.
WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY ARE STILL SHOWING TO BE INFLUENCED BY THE
WEAK TROUGH OVER OUR CWA. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE THURSDAY 00Z TO 12Z. SURFACE CAPES WILL BE AROUND 2000 J/KG IN THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA AND WILL STAY AROUND 2000 J/KG MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE CWA. THERE ARE ALSO A FEW 700 MB SHORTWAVES THAT PASS OVER
OUR CWA DURING THIS TIME...WHICH WILL DEFINITELY HELP WITH LIFT IN THE
ABSENCE OF STRONG SHEAR. THURSDAY AT 00Z IS THE ONLY PERIOD DURING THIS
TIME THAT SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR REACHING AROUND 30 KTS. ANOTHER FEATURE
THAT MAY INCREASE MOISTURE...THURSDAY 00Z/06Z...IS THE TS/TD THAT BOTH
THE GFS AND EUROPEAN HAVE MOVING INTO TEXAS LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. AS OF NOW THE EUROPEAN IS SHOWING THIS FEATURE FEEDING
MOISTURE INTO OUR CWA BUT THE GFS PUSHES IT EAST OF OUR CWA. SOMETHING
TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
IT IS NOT UNTIL MID DAY ON THURSDAY THAT THE TROUGH HAS MOVED ENOUGH TO
THE EAST TO DECREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES...AS WELL AS A RIDGE
BUILDING OVER OUR CWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE...REACHING THE MID 90S BY FRIDAY. SATURDAY IS SHOWING A SLIGHT
DECEASE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH A CLOSED LOW PUSHING INTO THE FAR
NORTHWEST US.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM MDT SAT JUN 13 2015
PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN THIS TAF RUN REMAINS THE CHANCE FOR
FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT. MOST GUIDANCE IS NOT GRASPING THE CURRENT
TRENDS IN DEWPOINTS/MOISTURE CONTENT AND FEEL THEY ARE DOWNPLAYING
THE FOG/STRATUS CHANCES TOO MUCH. THERE IS SOME THICK CIRRUS
COMING IN WHICH MAY REDUCE THE REQUIRED RADIATIONAL COOLING.
HOWEVER...LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE FOG/STRATUS REMAIN LIKELY
SO RELIED ON A RAP/NAM COMBINATION. ANY FOG/STRATUS RAPIDLY
DISSIPATES BY MID-MORNING. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TOMORROW BUT STILL DO NOT
ANTICIPATE THEM REACHING THE TAF SITES.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...RRH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1135 PM MDT SAT JUN 13 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 548 PM MDT SAT JUN 13 2015
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE. CONCERN IS GROWING
OVER THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TOMORROW MORNING WITH SOME LOCATIONS
POSSIBLY EXPERIENCING DENSE FOG. A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST
COLORADO SLOWLY SLIDES NORTH THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THE
LOW...MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL PERSIST...REACHING ITS PEAK BY
TOMORROW MORNING. MIXING RATIOS APPROACH 14 G/KG...DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW/MID 60S AND TEMPERATURES FALLING NEAR SATURATION SHOULD
PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. INSERTED
AREAS OF FOG INTO THE FORECAST...PRIMARILY EAST OF A BENKELMAN
NEBRASKA TO LEOTI KANSAS LINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT SAT JUN 13 2015
LATEST UPPER AIR DATA DEPICTS A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST
CONUS. TO THE SOUTH SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WERE LOCATED FROM
THE FOUR CORNERS AREA UP TO THE GREAT LAKES. SATELLITE DATA SHOWED
STORMS BEGINNING TO FIRE OVER THE ROCKIES BETWEEN TWO OF THE
TROUGHS. FURTHER EAST OVER THE PLAINS CUMULUS CLOUDS WERE BECOMING
MORE PRONOUNCED WITH ONE OF THE TROUGHS. AT THE SURFACE A LOW
PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO. SURFACE
CONVERGENCE FROM THE SURFACE LOW NEAR LIMON WAS ALLOWING STORMS TO
BEGIN TO FIRE.
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON EXPECT STORMS NEAR THE SURFACE LOW TO
REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON WHEN SURFACE
CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS OVER THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE AREA. TO THE
EAST WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH ONE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MAY LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT. DUE
TO ALMOST NO STORM MOVEMENT ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE ALMOST
STATIONARY. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL ABOVE THE 75TH
PERCENTILE...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP AND DO NOT COLLAPSE ON THEMSELVES SHORTLY AFTER INITIATING.
EARLY THIS EVENING THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING STORMS OVER THE FAR
WEST NEAR THE SURFACE LOW. THESE SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE SUN SETS.
FURTHER EAST THE LIFT FROM THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA...AND ACTUALLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE
EVENING. CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR
STORMS WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA. STORM COVERAGE FOR OUR AREA WILL
BE MORE ISOLATED WITH COVERAGE INCREASING TO THE EAST. ANY LINGERING
STORMS WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
BEFORE SUNRISE.
SUNDAY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WEST OF THE AREA TODAY WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA. NOT MUCH LIFT TO REALLY HELP PINPOINT STORM
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER THIS LOOKS TO BE A SIMILAR SETUP TO YESTERDAY
WHEN STORMS DEVELOPED ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. ONE TROUGH AXIS WILL
BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH ANOTHER OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST. WITH
BETTER CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NORTHERN TROUGH AXIS...WHICH SEPARATES
THE NOW CLOSED LOW FROM THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL FLOW...AM THINKING
ISOLATED STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA
FIRST. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES CONVERGENCE OVER THIS PART OF
THE AREA WILL END AS THE CLOSED LOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH. MEANWHILE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS WILL DEVELOP
AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH CLOSES OFF. AGAIN THIS LOOKS TO BE A
SIMILAR SETUP TO FRIDAY SO WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL
OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA ALONG/AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA SO
STORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TO THE EAST. WITH ALMOST NO STORM
MOVEMENT...ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY.
WITH THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...ANY STORMS THAT DO NOT
COLLAPSE SHORTLY AFTER INITIATING MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.
THERE WILL BE A FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
AREA DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER THIS LOOKS TO BE WEST...BEHIND...THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE DRIER AIR SO AM NOT TOO CONFIDENT STORMS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE FEATURE UNLESS IT BECOMES MORE
VERTICALLY STACKED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
LOW/HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY/LAST NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT SAT JUN 13 2015
GOING INTO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...SIMILAR MODEL
CONDITIONS AGAIN WILL AFFECT THE ENTIRE TRI STATE REGION...AS
COMPARED WITH LAST FEW MODEL RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF. ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY ZONAL FLOW WILL MAINLY PERSIST AT
500MB/700MB...WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SE/SW PORTIONS
OF THE COUNTRY. THE FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES WILL ALLOW FOR
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP AND REMAIN THRU MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LATEST MODEL RUNS DO SHOW THIS TROUGH A BIT MORE
ENHANCED/DEEPER THAN YESTERDAY/S RUN BUT WILL INTERACT WITH A FEW
TROUGHS THAT MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN ZONAL FLOW...INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. HAVE KEPT IN
MODERATE RAINFALL ENHANCEMENT IN THE FORECAST WITH PW/S REACHING
1.00"-1.50" ALL WEEK. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S FROM TUESDAY ONWARD...AND
MONDAY IN THE MID/UPPER 70S. DAYTIME HIGHS COULD BE ADVERSELY
AFFECTED FROM AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AS WELL AS
AMOUNT OF RAIN EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S
TO THE MID 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM MDT SAT JUN 13 2015
PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN THIS TAF RUN REMAINS THE CHANCE FOR
FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT. MOST GUIDANCE IS NOT GRASPING THE CURRENT
TRENDS IN DEWPOINTS/MOISTURE CONTENT AND FEEL THEY ARE DOWNPLAYING
THE FOG/STRATUS CHANCES TOO MUCH. THERE IS SOME THICK CIRRUS
COMING IN WHICH MAY REDUCE THE REQUIRED RADIATIONAL COOLING.
HOWEVER...LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE FOG/STRATUS REMAIN LIKELY
SO RELIED ON A RAP/NAM COMBINATION. ANY FOG/STRATUS RAPIDLY
DISSIPATES BY MID-MORNING. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TOMORROW BUT STILL DO NOT
ANTICIPATE THEM REACHING THE TAF SITES.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...RRH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1058 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1058 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
THE 0Z NAM AND MOST RECENT HRRR RUN FROM 01Z SUGGEST THE REMAINDER
OF THE OVERNIGHT COULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS
POINT...DO NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO REMOVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE NORTH LATE. OTHERWISE...HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATION.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 830 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
CONVECTION HAS WANED OVER THE PAST HOUR AS WE APPROACH SUNSET. A
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE REGION
STILL IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF A QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE
NORTH OF THE REGION. NEAR TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM12 AS WELL AS
RECENT HRRR RUNS DEVELOP SOME CONVECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN KY. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
ALREADY HAD SOME POPS LATE IN THE NORTH AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED
AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER
THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
CONTINUATION OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS FIRING WITH DAYTIME HEATING IN AN ARC ON THE
NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. DESPITE THE STAGNANT LOOK IN THE
MID LEVELS...A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING BY WELL TO OUR NORTH WILL
FORCE A SUBTLE SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH THE 850 MB JET AXIS INTO OUR
AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS BEEN A GOOD INDICATOR OF
WHERE THE BETTER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE HAS BEEN IN RECENT
DAYS AND ITS SOUTHWARD SHIFT WILL HELP INCREASE OUR ALREADY HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT UP TOWARDS 2 INCHES. THIS SHOULD SPELL
BETTER COVERAGE FOR THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON
TUESDAY COMPARED TO WHAT WE ARE SEEING TODAY. IT WILL ALSO RESULT
IN A SMALL THREAT FOR A SHOWER OR STORM GOING THROUGH TONIGHT IN
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND FOR ALL AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. LAPSE RATES
REMAIN MEAGER SO LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AS THE
PERIOD STARTS. THE CONVECTIVE RING OF FIRE ON ITS PERIMETER IS
EXPECTED TO BE JUST TO OUR NORTH...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE A
LITTLE BIT BETTER SHOT AT PRECIP IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS DEPICT THE CONVECTIVE BELT
SHIFTING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD OVER OUR AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT
ALSO BEING A LITTLE LESS ACTIVE. A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERLIES OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS SHOULD SEND A COLD FRONT TOWARD
OUR REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FALLS BOTH
FAVOR A DECENT SHOT AT SOME THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING IS UNCERTAIN
THOUGH...AND ONLY CHANCE POPS ARE BEING USED AT THIS POINT. THE
PUSH OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE LOOSING ITS
MOMENTUM BY THE TIME THE FRONT REACHES US...SO NO SIGNIFICANT
RELIEF FROM HUMIDITY IS SEEN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 750 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
DIMINISHING SHOWERS OR STORMS NEAR SJS AND SYM SHOULD DIE OUT OVER
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. A VCSH HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THESE AREAS.
OTHERWISE...WIND SHOULD INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY
MIDDAY AT THE TAF SITES WITH CONVECTION AGAIN REFIRING BY ABOUT
16Z. DUE TO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND SYM AS WELL AS JKL AND SJS APPEAR TO HAVE
THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SHRA OR TSRA DURING THE LAST 8 HOURS OF THE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THEY WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ALL AREAS DURING THAT
TIME. ASIDE FROM THE STORMS...SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL AGAIN
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN THE RIVER VALLEYS BUT SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE
TAF SITES.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
849 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
CONVECTION HAS WANED OVER THE PAST HOUR AS WE APPROACH SUNSET. A
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE REGION
STILL IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF A QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE
NORTH OF THE REGION. NEAR TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM12 AS WELL AS
RECENT HRRR RUNS DEVELOP SOME CONVECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN KY. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
ALREADY HAD SOME POPS LATE IN THE NORTH AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED
AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER
THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
CONTINUATION OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS FIRING WITH DAYTIME HEATING IN AN ARC ON THE
NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. DESPITE THE STAGNANT LOOK IN THE
MID LEVELS...A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING BY WELL TO OUR NORTH WILL
FORCE A SUBTLE SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH THE 850 MB JET AXIS INTO OUR
AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS BEEN A GOOD INDICATOR OF
WHERE THE BETTER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE HAS BEEN IN RECENT
DAYS AND ITS SOUTHWARD SHIFT WILL HELP INCREASE OUR ALREADY HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT UP TOWARDS 2 INCHES. THIS SHOULD SPELL
BETTER COVERAGE FOR THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON
TUESDAY COMPARED TO WHAT WE ARE SEEING TODAY. IT WILL ALSO RESULT
IN A SMALL THREAT FOR A SHOWER OR STORM GOING THROUGH TONIGHT IN
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND FOR ALL AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. LAPSE RATES
REMAIN MEAGER SO LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AS THE
PERIOD STARTS. THE CONVECTIVE RING OF FIRE ON ITS PERIMETER IS
EXPECTED TO BE JUST TO OUR NORTH...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE A
LITTLE BIT BETTER SHOT AT PRECIP IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS DEPICT THE CONVECTIVE BELT
SHIFTING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD OVER OUR AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT
ALSO BEING A LITTLE LESS ACTIVE. A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERLIES OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS SHOULD SEND A COLD FRONT TOWARD
OUR REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FALLS BOTH
FAVOR A DECENT SHOT AT SOME THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING IS UNCERTAIN
THOUGH...AND ONLY CHANCE POPS ARE BEING USED AT THIS POINT. THE
PUSH OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE LOOSING ITS
MOMENTUM BY THE TIME THE FRONT REACHES US...SO NO SIGNIFICANT
RELIEF FROM HUMIDITY IS SEEN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 750 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
DIMINISHING SHOWERS OR STORMS NEAR SJS AND SYM SHOULD DIE OUT OVER
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. A VCSH HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THESE AREAS.
OTHERWISE...WIND SHOULD INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY
MIDDAY AT THE TAF SITES WITH CONVECTION AGAIN REFIRING BY ABOUT
16Z. DUE TO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND SYM AS WELL AS JKL AND SJS APPEAR TO HAVE
THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SHRA OR TSRA DURING THE LAST 8 HOURS OF THE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THEY WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ALL AREAS DURING THAT
TIME. ASIDE FROM THE STORMS...SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL AGAIN
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN THE RIVER VALLEYS BUT SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE
TAF SITES.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
151 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING AND WHILE COVERAGE
SHOULD REMAIN FEW AND FAR BETWEEN...WENT AHEAD AND EXPANDED THE
MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1045 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
FORECAST APPEARS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH STRONG RIDGING ALOFT AND MID
LEVEL WARMING LIKELY KEEPING A LID ON CONVECTION TODAY FOR MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA/WEST VIRGINIA BORDERS AND PERHAPS OVER
OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES...FURTHER AWAY FROM THE CORE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE...WHERE AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL FEATURE HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY
IN OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND ALONG THE VIRGINIA AND WEST
VIRGINIA BORDERS...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND 90 BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY FALLING TO AROUND 70 ACROSS THE AREA. THE
NAM12 AND HRRR MODELS ARE BOTH IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY TODAY AND
MONDAY...SO THESE TWO MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE USED TO CREATE THE
FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
WHILE THE MODELS ALL LINE UP WITH EACH OTHER ALOFT FOR THE
EXTENDED...THIS AGREEMENT IS A BIT OF A DEPARTURE WITH RESPECT TO
THEIR CONSENSUS OF 24 HOURS AGO...LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE. THEY
NOW ALL SHOW THE RIDGING A BIT MORE SUBSTANTIAL THROUGH THE DEEP
SOUTH WITH THE TRAIN OF WEAK ENERGY WAVES STAYING FURTHER NORTH THAN
LAST NIGHT/S VERSION. THE TROUGH THAT LOOKED TO PASS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY IS NOW A BIT SLOWER AND WILL JUST
BE GETTING TO OUR AREA ON FRIDAY WITH THE GFS THE SLOWEST SOLUTION.
ACCORDINGLY...THE MODELS NOW SUGGEST THAT THIS WAVE WILL NOT BE
MOVING OUT UNTIL THE UPCOMING SATURDAY WITH RISING HEIGHTS TO FOLLOW
INTO THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEKEND. THIS LATEST MODEL SCENARIO
WOULD MAKE THE STORMS MORE OF AN UNCERTAINTY...BASICALLY WAITING FOR
OUTFLOW FROM ONES TRACKING TO THE NORTH TO TAP INTO OUR WARM AND
HUMID AIR FOR ANY BETTER CONVECTIVE CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WILL AGAIN FAVOR A MODEL BLENDED SOLUTION FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION
OF THE FORECAST...WITH A HEAVY DIURNAL COMPONENT TO THE POPS AND SKY
COVER.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL SEE A WARM AND HUMID SETUP FOR EAST KENTUCKY
THROUGH THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED. THE BETTER STORM CHANCES WILL BE
WEST AND NORTH OF THE CWA...ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. THE BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL BE SEEN
FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A LOW
PRESSURE AREA AND A POOL OF MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS. LOWER POPS
WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE AREA ON SATURDAY OWING TO RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AT THE SFC. THE WARMEST DAYS OF
THE EXTENDED WILL BE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS FROM 85 TO
90 DEGREES AND THE HEAT INDEX A CATEGORY HIGHER EACH AFTERNOON. MORE
CLOUDS AND CONVECTION SHOULD SERVE TO CHECK THE WARMTH ON
FRIDAY...BUT HIGHS SHOULD BE UP A NOTCH SATURDAY AS SOME DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE MORE TROPICAL AIR MASS.
THE CR GRID BLEND CAME IN REASONABLY WELL WITH THE BULK OF ANY
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE POPS AND SKY TO ACCOUNT FOR A STRONG DIURNAL
CYCLE WITH THESE GRIDS THROUGH THURSDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DID
TOUCH THE LOWS A BIT EACH NIGHT TO REPRESENT ONLY MINOR TERRAIN
EFFECTS GIVEN THE FAIRLY HIGH MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL
TAF SITES WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL DOT THE LANDSCAPE THIS AFTERNOON BUT ANY IMPACTS
SHOULD BE MINIMAL AND BRIEF. THE STORMS WILL DIE AFTER SUNSET
FOLLOWED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG IN OUR
NORMALLY FOG PRONE RIVER VALLEYS. MONDAY WILL THEN FEATURE
ANOTHER DAY OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
STORMS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ABE
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...ABE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1045 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
FORECAST APPEARS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH STRONG RIDGING ALOFT AND MID
LEVEL WARMING LIKELY KEEPING A LID ON CONVECTION TODAY FOR MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA/WEST VIRGINIA BORDERS AND PERHAPS OVER
OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES...FURTHER AWAY FROM THE CORE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE...WHERE AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL FEATURE HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY
IN OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND ALONG THE VIRGINIA AND WEST
VIRGINIA BORDERS...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND 90 BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY FALLING TO AROUND 70 ACROSS THE AREA. THE
NAM12 AND HRRR MODELS ARE BOTH IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY TODAY AND
MONDAY...SO THESE TWO MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE USED TO CREATE THE
FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
WHILE THE MODELS ALL LINE UP WITH EACH OTHER ALOFT FOR THE
EXTENDED...THIS AGREEMENT IS A BIT OF A DEPARTURE WITH RESPECT TO
THEIR CONSENSUS OF 24 HOURS AGO...LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE. THEY
NOW ALL SHOW THE RIDGING A BIT MORE SUBSTANTIAL THROUGH THE DEEP
SOUTH WITH THE TRAIN OF WEAK ENERGY WAVES STAYING FURTHER NORTH THAN
LAST NIGHT/S VERSION. THE TROUGH THAT LOOKED TO PASS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY IS NOW A BIT SLOWER AND WILL JUST
BE GETTING TO OUR AREA ON FRIDAY WITH THE GFS THE SLOWEST SOLUTION.
ACCORDINGLY...THE MODELS NOW SUGGEST THAT THIS WAVE WILL NOT BE
MOVING OUT UNTIL THE UPCOMING SATURDAY WITH RISING HEIGHTS TO FOLLOW
INTO THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEKEND. THIS LATEST MODEL SCENARIO
WOULD MAKE THE STORMS MORE OF AN UNCERTAINTY...BASICALLY WAITING FOR
OUTFLOW FROM ONES TRACKING TO THE NORTH TO TAP INTO OUR WARM AND
HUMID AIR FOR ANY BETTER CONVECTIVE CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WILL AGAIN FAVOR A MODEL BLENDED SOLUTION FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION
OF THE FORECAST...WITH A HEAVY DIURNAL COMPONENT TO THE POPS AND SKY
COVER.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL SEE A WARM AND HUMID SETUP FOR EAST KENTUCKY
THROUGH THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED. THE BETTER STORM CHANCES WILL BE
WEST AND NORTH OF THE CWA...ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. THE BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL BE SEEN
FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A LOW
PRESSURE AREA AND A POOL OF MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS. LOWER POPS
WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE AREA ON SATURDAY OWING TO RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AT THE SFC. THE WARMEST DAYS OF
THE EXTENDED WILL BE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS FROM 85 TO
90 DEGREES AND THE HEAT INDEX A CATEGORY HIGHER EACH AFTERNOON. MORE
CLOUDS AND CONVECTION SHOULD SERVE TO CHECK THE WARMTH ON
FRIDAY...BUT HIGHS SHOULD BE UP A NOTCH SATURDAY AS SOME DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE MORE TROPICAL AIR MASS.
THE CR GRID BLEND CAME IN REASONABLY WELL WITH THE BULK OF ANY
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE POPS AND SKY TO ACCOUNT FOR A STRONG DIURNAL
CYCLE WITH THESE GRIDS THROUGH THURSDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DID
TOUCH THE LOWS A BIT EACH NIGHT TO REPRESENT ONLY MINOR TERRAIN
EFFECTS GIVEN THE FAIRLY HIGH MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 712 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
ASIDE FROM SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN OUR NORTHERN AND
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
RULE THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ON TAP FOR TOMORROW AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ABE
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
712 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL FEATURE HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY
IN OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND ALONG THE VIRGINIA AND WEST
VIRGINIA BORDERS...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND 90 BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY FALLING TO AROUND 70 ACROSS THE AREA. THE
NAM12 AND HRRR MODELS ARE BOTH IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY TODAY AND
MONDAY...SO THESE TWO MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE USED TO CREATE THE
FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
WHILE THE MODELS ALL LINE UP WITH EACH OTHER ALOFT FOR THE
EXTENDED...THIS AGREEMENT IS A BIT OF A DEPARTURE WITH RESPECT TO
THEIR CONSENSUS OF 24 HOURS AGO...LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE. THEY
NOW ALL SHOW THE RIDGING A BIT MORE SUBSTANTIAL THROUGH THE DEEP
SOUTH WITH THE TRAIN OF WEAK ENERGY WAVES STAYING FURTHER NORTH THAN
LAST NIGHT/S VERSION. THE TROUGH THAT LOOKED TO PASS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY IS NOW A BIT SLOWER AND WILL JUST
BE GETTING TO OUR AREA ON FRIDAY WITH THE GFS THE SLOWEST SOLUTION.
ACCORDINGLY...THE MODELS NOW SUGGEST THAT THIS WAVE WILL NOT BE
MOVING OUT UNTIL THE UPCOMING SATURDAY WITH RISING HEIGHTS TO FOLLOW
INTO THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEKEND. THIS LATEST MODEL SCENARIO
WOULD MAKE THE STORMS MORE OF AN UNCERTAINTY...BASICALLY WAITING FOR
OUTFLOW FROM ONES TRACKING TO THE NORTH TO TAP INTO OUR WARM AND
HUMID AIR FOR ANY BETTER CONVECTIVE CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WILL AGAIN FAVOR A MODEL BLENDED SOLUTION FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION
OF THE FORECAST...WITH A HEAVY DIURNAL COMPONENT TO THE POPS AND SKY
COVER.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL SEE A WARM AND HUMID SETUP FOR EAST KENTUCKY
THROUGH THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED. THE BETTER STORM CHANCES WILL BE
WEST AND NORTH OF THE CWA...ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. THE BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL BE SEEN
FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A LOW
PRESSURE AREA AND A POOL OF MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS. LOWER POPS
WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE AREA ON SATURDAY OWING TO RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AT THE SFC. THE WARMEST DAYS OF
THE EXTENDED WILL BE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS FROM 85 TO
90 DEGREES AND THE HEAT INDEX A CATEGORY HIGHER EACH AFTERNOON. MORE
CLOUDS AND CONVECTION SHOULD SERVE TO CHECK THE WARMTH ON
FRIDAY...BUT HIGHS SHOULD BE UP A NOTCH SATURDAY AS SOME DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE MORE TROPICAL AIR MASS.
THE CR GRID BLEND CAME IN REASONABLY WELL WITH THE BULK OF ANY
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE POPS AND SKY TO ACCOUNT FOR A STRONG DIURNAL
CYCLE WITH THESE GRIDS THROUGH THURSDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DID
TOUCH THE LOWS A BIT EACH NIGHT TO REPRESENT ONLY MINOR TERRAIN
EFFECTS GIVEN THE FAIRLY HIGH MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 712 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
ASIDE FROM SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN OUR NORTHERN AND
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
RULE THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ON TAP FOR TOMORROW AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
323 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL FEATURE HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY
IN OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND ALONG THE VIRGINIA AND WEST
VIRGINIA BORDERS...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND 90 BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY FALLING TO AROUND 70 ACROSS THE AREA. THE
NAM12 AND HRRR MODELS ARE BOTH IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY TODAY AND
MONDAY...SO THESE TWO MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE USED TO CREATE THE
FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
WHILE THE MODELS ALL LINE UP WITH EACH OTHER ALOFT FOR THE
EXTENDED...THIS AGREEMENT IS A BIT OF A DEPARTURE WITH RESPECT TO
THEIR CONSENSUS OF 24 HOURS AGO...LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE. THEY
NOW ALL SHOW THE RIDGING A BIT MORE SUBSTANTIAL THROUGH THE DEEP
SOUTH WITH THE TRAIN OF WEAK ENERGY WAVES STAYING FURTHER NORTH THAN
LAST NIGHT/S VERSION. THE TROUGH THAT LOOKED TO PASS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY IS NOW A BIT SLOWER AND WILL JUST
BE GETTING TO OUR AREA ON FRIDAY WITH THE GFS THE SLOWEST SOLUTION.
ACCORDINGLY...THE MODELS NOW SUGGEST THAT THIS WAVE WILL NOT BE
MOVING OUT UNTIL THE UPCOMING SATURDAY WITH RISING HEIGHTS TO FOLLOW
INTO THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEKEND. THIS LATEST MODEL SCENARIO
WOULD MAKE THE STORMS MORE OF AN UNCERTAINTY...BASICALLY WAITING FOR
OUTFLOW FROM ONES TRACKING TO THE NORTH TO TAP INTO OUR WARM AND
HUMID AIR FOR ANY BETTER CONVECTIVE CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WILL AGAIN FAVOR A MODEL BLENDED SOLUTION FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION
OF THE FORECAST...WITH A HEAVY DIURNAL COMPONENT TO THE POPS AND SKY
COVER.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL SEE A WARM AND HUMID SETUP FOR EAST KENTUCKY
THROUGH THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED. THE BETTER STORM CHANCES WILL BE
WEST AND NORTH OF THE CWA...ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. THE BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL BE SEEN
FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A LOW
PRESSURE AREA AND A POOL OF MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS. LOWER POPS
WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE AREA ON SATURDAY OWING TO RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AT THE SFC. THE WARMEST DAYS OF
THE EXTENDED WILL BE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS FROM 85 TO
90 DEGREES AND THE HEAT INDEX A CATEGORY HIGHER EACH AFTERNOON. MORE
CLOUDS AND CONVECTION SHOULD SERVE TO CHECK THE WARMTH ON
FRIDAY...BUT HIGHS SHOULD BE UP A NOTCH SATURDAY AS SOME DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE MORE TROPICAL AIR MASS.
THE CR GRID BLEND CAME IN REASONABLY WELL WITH THE BULK OF ANY
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE POPS AND SKY TO ACCOUNT FOR A STRONG DIURNAL
CYCLE WITH THESE GRIDS THROUGH THURSDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DID
TOUCH THE LOWS A BIT EACH NIGHT TO REPRESENT ONLY MINOR TERRAIN
EFFECTS GIVEN THE FAIRLY HIGH MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 131 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BESIDES SOME
MVFR FOG AT TIMES AT LOZ AND SME BETWEEN 8 AND 12Z. ANY IFR OR
WORSE FOG WILL BE MORE RESTRICTED TO THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS
OVERNIGHT. ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT CAN MANAGE TO FORM TODAY
WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED...SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT ANY
MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE PICKING UP TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
130 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2015
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Updated at 305 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2015
Scattered showers and thunderstorms have erupted over parts of
south-central and western KY in the warm, humid, and essentially
uncapped air mass. The storms over south-central KY are putting down
some brief heavy rain and perhaps a few brief wind gusts, but
downward CAPE (DCAPE) values are very marginal (500 J/kg or less)
due to ample atmospheric moisture and weak lapse rates aloft. Thus,
am expecting little or no microburst activity with these storms. The
cells over western KY are showing a bit better organization at this
time, and if they can hold together and move into a slightly more
favorable environment in south-central IN late this afternoon, then
a few stronger cells are possible.
Nevertheless, given a lack of organized forcing, storms will weaken/
dissipate early this evening in most areas as they continue to move
northeast. The latest HRRR even shows the cells in western KY
weakening later on as they move northeast. This will leave a mostly
clear sky south and partly cloudy sky north overnight across our
area. There could be patchy fog/haze early Sunday morning,
especially where showers occur this afternoon, but not expecting
anything widespread or dense.
Short range models in good overall agreement with a summer pattern
in store on Sunday. Mid-level ridge will continue to build to the
northwest across KY Sunday with 500 mb heights rising a bit. There
also should be a little less moisture in the atmosphere. As a
result, there will be less coverage Sunday afternoon, and south-
central KY may stay precip free other than perhaps an isolated storm
here or there. A slightly better chance for diurnal afternoon
isolated to scattered cells will occur roughly along and north of
Interstate 64 on the periphery of the upper ridge and closer to the
better stream of moisture around this ridge. Once again, any
activity should weaken Sunday evening. However, cannot rule out
isolated/scattered nocturnal cells Sunday night over southern IN,
again closer to the stream of moisture on the northern fringe of the
upper ridge.
Lows tonight should be roughly around 70 (warmer in Louisville).
Highs Sunday afternoon will top out near 90 or the lower 90s in
central KY with mid-upper 80s in southern IN. Lows Sunday night will
average in the lower 70s across the region.
.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Sun June 14 2015
Well..the big weather feature of the forecast is the large
anticylone anchored over the Peach State and the Palmetto State. How
the Ridge strengthens and becomes shunted will be one of the keys
with this entire warm and sultry airmass ensconsed over the OH
Valley. While the Bermuda High remains anchored over the SE Coast
towards the Bahamas, the polar jet will be racing in a nearly zonal
fashion across the Northern CONUS. The result of this will be an
abundance of Gulf moisture, helping to fuel thunderstorms from The
Lone Star State up to The Show Me State and then around the ridge to
to the Upper Midwest and Southern Great Lakes with any of a number
of short waves flowing through the northern jet.
Model guidance is in good agreement on this overall stagnant
pattern, but as usual, the devil is in the details. For the land
between the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, that means dry to the south,
wet to the north, and the hit-and-miss storms in between - right
over us. At least that looks to be the scenario for most of the
period. The 12Z runs are all picking up on a bit more energy
riding in from the western Gulf and breaking down the ridge on
Thursday, though. This would provide the opportunity for more
organized convection then. Regardless of the day and coverage,
though thanks to the deep moisture riding from the Gulf around the
subtropical High off the Florida coast, any storms that do develop
will be soakers, as precipitable water values will be in the 1.5"-2"
range throughout the time frame.
Temperature-wise, both daytime highs and overnight lows will be
above normal through the period, but only by 5 to as many as 10
degrees. That works out to most highs being in the mid 80s to
around 90, with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 130 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2015
Though an isolated shower isn`t out of the question early this
morning, coverage will be slight enough to preclude mention in the
TAFs. Fog is unlikely, though since BWG received a brief period of
light rain yesterday, will continue with a chance of MVFR BR there.
Daylight will bring another warm, muggy summer day. Scattered
thunderstorm development will once again be possible, especially in
the afternoon. With ridging to our southeast and the main storm
track to our northwest, SDF stands the best shot at a storm so will
include VCTS there. LEX and BWG could also see a cell move through,
but chances are lower at those locations.
After light winds pre-dawn, southwest winds may get a bit gusty
today, possibly to near 20 knots at times.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term........TWF
Long Term.........JBS
Aviation..........13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
100 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.AVIATION...
VFR WITH ISOLD SHWRS. EXPECT MVFR CIGS WITH SCAT TO NUM SHWRS BY
AROUND DAYBREAK. OUR CLIMB WINDS ARE S 15-35KTS INTO THE MID
LEVELS. SHWRS WILL QUICKLY BECOMING STRONGER TSTMS WITH HEATING
16-18Z. AMENDMENTS FOR TEMPO GROUPS LIKELY SUNDAY AFTN WITH
CLUSTERS OF TSTMS. WE/LL CONTINUE TO INCREASE COVERAGE IN THE
COMING DAYS AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH SITS OVER THE PLAINS AND
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGES INLAND OVER THE TX
COASTAL BEND WITH A HIGH CHANCE FOR A CYCLONE IN THE GULF.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 952 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015/
DISCUSSION...
MUCH OF THE CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS
OF INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH SCT CONVECTION CONTINUES JUST NW OF OUR
NW ZONES OVER SE OK...NEAR AN OLD OUTFLOW BNDRY FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION THAT PROPAGATED NW...AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE
OUT OF THE MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY. MUCH OF THE REGION THOUGH
STILL LIES IN VC OF A WEAK SHEAR AXIS ALOFT...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED/SCT REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY AS PW/S REMAIN
NEAR 2 INCHES. THE HRRR IS ACTUALLY A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN
CONVECTION REDEVELOPMENT LATE...WITH THE EXISTING CONVECTION JUST
OFFSHORE THE SE TX COAST PUSHING INLAND OVERNIGHT INTO PORTIONS OF
DEEP E TX JUST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK SUNDAY...ROTATING N AROUND THE
DIRTY UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SE CONUS.
HAVE KEPT MID CHANCE POPS GOING FOR THESE AREAS LATE TONIGHT...AS
WELL AS OUR SE OK/NRN SW AR COUNTIES...AS ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT
MAY OCCUR HERE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SHORTWAVE JUST OFF TO
OUR NW. DID INCREASE WINDS A TAD BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...AND
MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO MIN TEMPS...WITH READINGS NOT FALLING MUCH
MORE THAN THE 02Z OBS.
ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
15
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 74 86 74 87 / 30 60 50 60
MLU 73 88 74 89 / 40 70 50 50
DEQ 73 87 73 86 / 30 50 40 50
TXK 74 87 73 86 / 30 50 40 50
ELD 74 85 74 88 / 30 60 50 50
TYR 73 85 74 85 / 30 60 50 60
GGG 74 85 74 86 / 30 60 50 60
LFK 75 84 74 86 / 40 70 50 60
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
24/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
613 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
610 PM UPDATE...
RIDGE AXIS IS PARKED OVR NW MAINE AT THIS AND WL SLIDE EAST
OVRNGT. AS IT DOES SO, THIN CIRRUS WL SPILL INTO SWRN ZONES LATE
TONIGHT AND CURRENT FCST HAS THIS WELL IN HAND. WINDS HV
DIMINISHED WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HTG, BCMG LGT/VRB AFT MIDNIGHT AND
THEN VEERING TWD DAYBREAK. MIN TEMPS STILL PROGGED TO DROP INTO
THE L/M 40S ACRS NORTH AND ARND 50 IN DOWNEAST. WL MONITOR TRENDS
THIS EVNG TO DETERMINE IF AN ADJUSTMENT UP IN MINS TONIGHT IS
NEEDED ACRS NRN ZONES. NO CHGS WITH THIS UPDATE.
PREV DISCO BLO...
THE MAIN CHALLENGES THIS TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND WIND.
HIGH PRES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY. 06Z IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE W/SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
ESE FROM CANADA. THE 00Z NAM AND THE LATEST HRRR 3KM HANDLED THIS
HIGH CLOUDINESS WELL. THIS HIGH CLOUDINESS APPEARED TO BE IN
ASSOCIATION W/SHEARED VORTICITY MOVING SE FROM CANADA. THE NAM AND
HRRR 3KM MODEL SHOW SOME OF THIS CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST AREAS TODAY W/THE MAJORITY OF IT BEING THIN. FURTHER
NORTH, MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY W/A
NORTHERLY WIND IN PLACE IN LLVLS. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 70S NORTH AND WEST W/MID TO UPPER 70S
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. A SEA BREEZE LOOKS LIKE IT COULD SET UP
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST KEEPING THING COOLER SAY ALONG THE BAR
HARBOR TO MACHIAS. 00Z UA SHOWED A 30 KT JET MAX RESIDING AT
850MBS IN QUEBEC. THIS JET MAX IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. MODEL SOUNDING SHOW INVERTED V IN THE BLYR W/SOME OF
THIS WIND TO MIX DOWN TO THE SFC. THEREFORE, INCREASED THE GUSTS
BY 5 MPH TODAY PLAYING FOR GUSTS TO HIT 20 KT MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.
FOR TONIGHT, HIGH PRES WILL MOVE TO THE E W/THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION. SOUNDING DATA INDICATED DRY THROUGH THE COLUMN
W/CLEAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT W/THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO
THE REGION. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DROP OFF LESS THAN 7 MPH
W/TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK OVERNIGHT. READINGS BY DAYBREAK ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH AND WEST W/50-55
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE JET STREAM WILL BE NEAR ITS SUMMERTIME POSITION ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER WITH A BROAD RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING MAY BE TOO LATE
IN THE DAY FOR STRONG CONVECTION...HOWEVER THIS SCENARIO WILL BE
WATCHED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. SPC CURRENTLY HAS MOST OF
MAINE IN A DAY 3 OUTLOOK MARGINAL CATEGORY WITH A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS
VERMONT AND NEW HAMPSHIRE.
THIS FRONT CLEARS THE STATE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MID
JUNE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS DRY WITH HIGH PRES SLIDING JUST SOUTH OF MAINE.
HOWEVER, CLOUDS WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM. THERE REMAINS DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ON HOW
PROGRESSIVE THE PATTERN WILL BE LATE WEEK, WITH THE GFS REMAINING
ABOUT 6 HOURS OR SO AHEAD OF THE ECMWF, THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
TREND TOWARD THE GFS WITH THE 12Z RUN TODAY. GIVEN THIS TREND AND
THE OVERALL MORE CONSISTENT NATURE OF THE GFS, ANY EDITS AWAY
FROM SUPERBLEND LEANED TOWARD THE GFS. THE CANADIAN WASN`T
CONSIDERED STRONGLY LATE WEEK DUE TO IT BEING FAR MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH HAVING THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF GETTING CAUGHT UP
IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND HAVING IT POTENTIALLY IMPACTING
NEW ENGLAND AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE MODEL REASONING OUT OF THE WAY, IT LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT
FRONT PUSHES INTO NW MAINE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT FRIDAY AND CLEARS
THE CWA LATER THAT MORNING. HIGH PRES BUILDING IN BRINGS CLEARING
LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, AND LIKELY A CHILLY NIGHT FOR THE
NORTH MAINE WOODS. THE WEATHER SITUATION ON SUNDAY COULD BE
TRICKY, AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE THE REMNANTS OF THE GULF
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE REACHING THE EAST COAST. ECMWF BRINGS IT
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND PUSHES SOME RAIN INTO COASTAL
MAINE, WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT SOUTH IN THE MID-ATLANTIC. GIVEN
EARLIER MODEL DECISIONS, DECIDED TO STICK WITH GFS AND SUPERBLEND
WHICH SHOWS NO ENHANCED POPS ALONG THE COAST, BUT IT WILL BEAR
MONITORING. BOTH MODELS SHOW SOME FRONT OR LOW APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM, WHICH WAS REFLECTED IN POPS.&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT. A LIGHT CHOP EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM: IFR OR MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TAF SITES
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS.
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TAF SITES LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
SHORT TERM:
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES THIS TERM. SUSTAINED WINDS TO AVERAGE 10
KTS W/A FEW GUSTS OF 20 KTS EARLY TODAY FOR THE OUTER ZONE FROM
SCHOODIC POINT TO STONINGTON. SEAS OF 2-3 AWAY FROM THE INTRA-
COASTAL ZONE.
SHORT TERM: SEAS WILL APPROACH 5 FEET AND WIND GUSTS MAY HIT 25
KNOTS IN THE OUTER COASTAL ZONES ON TUESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FARRAR/MCW
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...KREDENSOR
AVIATION...FARRAR/MCW/OKULSKI
MARINE...FARRAR/MCW/OKULSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
310 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM QUEBEC TODAY. THIS HIGH WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE MAIN CHALLENGES THIS TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND WIND.
HIGH PRES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY. 06Z IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE W/SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
ESE FROM CANADA. THE 00Z NAM AND THE LATEST HRRR 3KM HANDLED THIS
HIGH CLOUDINESS WELL. THIS HIGH CLOUDINESS APPEARED TO BE IN
ASSOCIATION W/SHEARED VORTICITY MOVING SE FROM CANADA. THE NAM AND
HRRR 3KM MODEL SHOW SOME OF THIS CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST AREAS TODAY W/THE MAJORITY OF IT BEING THIN. FURTHER
NORTH, MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY W/A
NORTHERLY WIND IN PLACE IN LLVLS. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 70S NORTH AND WEST W/MID TO UPPER 70S
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. A SEA BREEZE LOOKS LIKE IT COULD SET UP
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST KEEPING THING COOLER SAY ALONG THE BAR
HARBOR TO MACHIAS. 00Z UA SHOWED A 30 KT JET MAX RESIDING AT
850MBS IN QUEBEC. THIS JET MAX IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. MODEL SOUNDING SHOW INVERTED V IN THE BLYR W/SOME OF
THIS WIND TO MIX DOWN TO THE SFC. THEREFORE, INCREASED THE GUSTS
BY 5 MPH TODAY PLAYING FOR GUSTS TO HIT 20 KT MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.
FOR TONIGHT, HIGH PRES WILL MOVE TO THE E W/THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION. SOUNDING DATA INDICATED DRY THROUGH THE COLUMN
W/CLEAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT W/THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO
THE REGION. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DROP OFF LESS THAN 7 MPH
W/TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK OVERNIGHT. READINGS BY DAYBREAK ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH AND WEST W/50-55
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE JET STREAM WILL BE NEAR ITS SUMMERTIME POSITION ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER WITH A BROAD RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING MAY BE TOO LATE
IN THE DAY FOR STRONG CONVECTION...HOWEVER THIS SCENARIO WILL BE
WATCHED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. SPC CURRENTLY HAS MOST OF
MAINE IN A DAY 3 OUTLOOK MARGINAL CATEGORY WITH A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS
VERMONT AND NEW HAMPSHIRE.
THIS FRONT CLEARS THE STATE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MID
JUNE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS DRY WITH HIGH PRES SLIDING JUST SOUTH OF MAINE.
HOWEVER, CLOUDS WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM. THERE REMAINS DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ON HOW
PROGRESSIVE THE PATTERN WILL BE LATE WEEK, WITH THE GFS REMAINING
ABOUT 6 HOURS OR SO AHEAD OF THE ECMWF, THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
TREND TOWARD THE GFS WITH THE 12Z RUN TODAY. GIVEN THIS TREND AND
THE OVERALL MORE CONSISTENT NATURE OF THE GFS, ANY EDITS AWAY
FROM SUPERBLEND LEANED TOWARD THE GFS. THE CANADIAN WASN`T
CONSIDERED STRONGLY LATE WEEK DUE TO IT BEING FAR MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH HAVING THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF GETTING CAUGHT UP
IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND HAVING IT POTENTIALLY IMPACTING
NEW ENGLAND AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE MODEL REASONING OUT OF THE WAY, IT LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT
FRONT PUSHES INTO NW MAINE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT FRIDAY AND CLEARS
THE CWA LATER THAT MORNING. HIGH PRES BUILDING IN BRINGS CLEARING
LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, AND LIKELY A CHILLY NIGHT FOR THE
NORTH MAINE WOODS. THE WEATHER SITUATION ON SUNDAY COULD BE
TRICKY, AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE THE REMNANTS OF THE GULF
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE REACHING THE EAST COAST. ECMWF BRINGS IT
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND PUSHES SOME RAIN INTO COASTAL
MAINE, WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT SOUTH IN THE MID-ATLANTIC. GIVEN
EARLIER MODEL DECISIONS, DECIDED TO STICK WITH GFS AND SUPERBLEND
WHICH SHOWS NO ENHANCED POPS ALONG THE COAST, BUT IT WILL BEAR
MONITORING. BOTH MODELS SHOW SOME FRONT OR LOW APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM, WHICH WAS REFLECTED IN POPS.&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT. A LIGHT CHOP EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM: IFR OR MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TAF SITES
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS.
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TAF SITES LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES THIS TERM. SUSTAINED WINDS TO AVERAGE 10
KTS W/A FEW GUSTS OF 20 KTS EARLY TODAY FOR THE OUTER ZONE FROM
SCHOODIC POINT TO STONINGTON. SEAS OF 2-3 AWAY FROM THE INTRA-
COASTAL ZONE.
SHORT TERM: SEAS WILL APPROACH 5 FEET AND WIND GUSTS MAY HIT 25
KNOTS IN THE OUTER COASTAL ZONES ON TUESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...FMK
AVIATION...MCW/OKULSKI
MARINE...MCW/OKULSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1210 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM QUEBEC TODAY. THIS HIGH WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1215 AM UPDATE...NO CHANGES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A SUNNY
AND PLEASANT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOW HUMIDITY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY.
06Z IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE
W/SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ESE FROM CANADA. THE 00Z NAM AND THE
LATEST HRRR 3KM HANDLED THIS HIGH CLOUDINESS WELL. THIS HIGH
CLOUDINESS APPEARED TO BE IN ASSOCIATION W/SHEARED VORTICITY
MOVING SE FROM CANADA. THE NAM AND HRRR 3KM MODEL SHOW SOME OF
THIS CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS TODAY
W/THE MAJORITY OF IT BEING THIN. FURTHER NORTH, MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY W/A NORTHERLY WIND IN
PLACE IN LLVLS. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
LOWER 70S NORTH AND WEST W/MID TO UPPER 70S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.
A SEA BREEZE LOOKS LIKE IT COULD SET UP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
KEEPING THING COOLER SAY ALONG THE BAR HARBOR TO MACHIAS. 00Z UA
SHOWED A 30 KT JET MAX RESIDING AT 850MBS IN QUEBEC. THIS JET MAX
IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. MODEL SOUNDING SHOW
INVERTED V IN THE BLYR W/SOME OF THIS WIND TO MIX DOWN TO THE SFC.
THEREFORE, INCREASED THE GUSTS BY 5 MPH TODAY PLAYING FOR GUSTS TO
HIT 20 KT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.
FOR TONIGHT, HIGH PRES WILL MOVE TO THE E W/THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION. SOUNDING DATA INDICATED DRY THROUGH THE COLUMN
W/CLEAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT W/THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO
THE REGION. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DROP OFF LESS THAN 7 MPH
W/TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK OVERNIGHT. READINGS BY DAYBREAK ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH AND WEST W/50-55
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE MAINE COAST DURING MONDAY WITH
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE AROUND 70
ACROSS THE NORTH AND ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S DOWN EAST WITH
AN ONSHORE FLOW.
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST MONDAY NIGHT WHILE AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL
TO THE WEST ACROSS QUEBEC. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE
AND FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS DOWN EAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH TO THE EAST AND THE LOW OFF TO THE
SOUTH. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL START
TO MOVE IN DURING TUESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ANY
TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE THE BETTER DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED. HIGHS
ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S DOWN EAST TO THE UPPER 60S
TO NEAR 70 NORTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ENDING BY MIDNIGHT.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
WITH DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH
WILL MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH DURING
THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
50S.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: 615 AM UPDATE...A 3500 FT DECK(STRATOCUMULUS) HAS MADE
ITS WAY S INTO NORTHERN AREAS W/CIRRUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS.
AMENDED THE NORTHERN TERMINALS TO PLAY FOR THE STRATOCUMULUS DECK.
OTHERWISE...VFR RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT. A LIGHT CHOP EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM: VFR MONDAY. IFR/LIFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY ESPECIALLY KBGR/KBHB WITH LOW
CLOUDS/AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
EAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. VFR TO START THURSDAY THEN
POSSIBLY MVFR AT TIMES IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES THIS TERM. SUSTAINED WINDS TO AVERAGE 10
KTS W/A FEW GUSTS OF 20 KTS EARLY TODAY FOR THE OUTER ZONE FROM
SCHOODIC POINT TO STONINGTON. SEAS OF 2-3 AWAY FROM THE INTRA-
COASTAL ZONE.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. VISIBILITIES WILL DECREASE TO AROUND A
MILE OR LESS AT TIMES IN AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE MONDAY NIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT/MCW
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/MCW/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/MCW/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
919 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM QUEBEC TODAY. THIS HIGH WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
915 AM UPDATE...NO CHANGES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A SUNNY AND
PLEASANT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOW HUMIDITY. CIRRUS
TOWARDS BANGOR AND THE DOWN EAST REGION CONTINUES TO THIN OUT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... HIGH PRES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY.
06Z IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE
W/SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ESE FROM CANADA. THE 00Z NAM AND THE
LATEST HRRR 3KM HANDLED THIS HIGH CLOUDINESS WELL. THIS HIGH
CLOUDINESS APPEARED TO BE IN ASSOCIATION W/SHEARED VORTICITY
MOVING SE FROM CANADA. THE NAM AND HRRR 3KM MODEL SHOW SOME OF
THIS CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS TODAY
W/THE MAJORITY OF IT BEING THIN. FURTHER NORTH, MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY W/A NORTHERLY WIND IN
PLACE IN LLVLS. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
LOWER 70S NORTH AND WEST W/MID TO UPPER 70S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.
A SEA BREEZE LOOKS LIKE IT COULD SET UP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
KEEPING THING COOLER SAY ALONG THE BAR HARBOR TO MACHIAS. 00Z UA
SHOWED A 30 KT JET MAX RESIDING AT 850MBS IN QUEBEC. THIS JET MAX
IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. MODEL SOUNDING SHOW
INVERTED V IN THE BLYR W/SOME OF THIS WIND TO MIX DOWN TO THE SFC.
THEREFORE, INCREASED THE GUSTS BY 5 MPH TODAY PLAYING FOR GUSTS TO
HIT 20 KT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.
FOR TONIGHT, HIGH PRES WILL MOVE TO THE E W/THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION. SOUNDING DATA INDICATED DRY THROUGH THE COLUMN
W/CLEAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT W/THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO
THE REGION. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DROP OFF LESS THAN 7 MPH
W/TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK OVERNIGHT. READINGS BY DAYBREAK ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH AND WEST W/50-55
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE MAINE COAST DURING MONDAY WITH
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE AROUND 70
ACROSS THE NORTH AND ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S DOWN EAST WITH
AN ONSHORE FLOW.
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST MONDAY NIGHT WHILE AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL
TO THE WEST ACROSS QUEBEC. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE
AND FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS DOWN EAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH TO THE EAST AND THE LOW OFF TO THE
SOUTH. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL START
TO MOVE IN DURING TUESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ANY
TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE THE BETTER DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED. HIGHS
ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S DOWN EAST TO THE UPPER 60S
TO NEAR 70 NORTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ENDING BY MIDNIGHT.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
WITH DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH
WILL MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH DURING
THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
50S.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: 615 AM UPDATE...A 3500 FT DECK(STRATOCUMULUS) HAS MADE
ITS WAY S INTO NORTHERN AREAS W/CIRRUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS.
AMENDED THE NORTHERN TERMINALS TO PLAY FOR THE STRATOCUMULUS DECK.
OTHERWISE...VFR RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT. A LIGHT CHOP EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM: VFR MONDAY. IFR/LIFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY ESPECIALLY KBGR/KBHB WITH LOW
CLOUDS/AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
EAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. VFR TO START THURSDAY THEN
POSSIBLY MVFR AT TIMES IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES THIS TERM. SUSTAINED WINDS TO AVERAGE 10
KTS W/A FEW GUSTS OF 20 KTS EARLY TODAY FOR THE OUTER ZONE FROM
SCHOODIC POINT TO STONINGTON. SEAS OF 2-3 AWAY FROM THE INTRA-
COASTAL ZONE.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. VISIBILITIES WILL DECREASE TO AROUND A
MILE OR LESS AT TIMES IN AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE MONDAY NIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT/MCW
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/MCW/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/MCW/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
617 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM QUEBEC TODAY. THIS HIGH WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
615 AM UPDATE...UPDATED THE SKY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING TO REFLECT
SOME CLOUDS AS THE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLOUD
SHIELD DISCUSSED EARLIER HAS EDGED FURTHER N ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS. THE THICKEST CLOUDS ARE ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND
CENTRAL AREAS. A BAND OF CLOUDS(3500 FOOT DECK) HAS MADE ITS WAY
INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS MORNING. STILL EXPECTING SKIES TO
BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... HIGH PRES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY.
06Z IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE
W/SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ESE FROM CANADA. THE 00Z NAM AND THE
LATEST HRRR 3KM HANDLED THIS HIGH CLOUDINESS WELL. THIS HIGH
CLOUDINESS APPEARED TO BE IN ASSOCIATION W/SHEARED VORTICITY
MOVING SE FROM CANADA. THE NAM AND HRRR 3KM MODEL SHOW SOME OF
THIS CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS TODAY
W/THE MAJORITY OF IT BEING THIN. FURTHER NORTH, MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY W/A NORTHERLY WIND IN
PLACE IN LLVLS. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
LOWER 70S NORTH AND WEST W/MID TO UPPER 70S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.
A SEA BREEZE LOOKS LIKE IT COULD SET UP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
KEEPING THING COOLER SAY ALONG THE BAR HARBOR TO MACHIAS. 00Z UA
SHOWED A 30 KT JET MAX RESIDING AT 850MBS IN QUEBEC. THIS JET MAX
IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. MODEL SOUNDING SHOW
INVERTED V IN THE BLYR W/SOME OF THIS WIND TO MIX DOWN TO THE SFC.
THEREFORE, INCREASED THE GUSTS BY 5 MPH TODAY PLAYING FOR GUSTS TO
HIT 20 KT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.
FOR TONIGHT, HIGH PRES WILL MOVE TO THE E W/THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION. SOUNDING DATA INDICATED DRY THROUGH THE COLUMN
W/CLEAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT W/THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO
THE REGION. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DROP OFF LESS THAN 7 MPH
W/TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK OVERNIGHT. READINGS BY DAYBREAK ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH AND WEST W/50-55
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE MAINE COAST DURING MONDAY WITH
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE AROUND 70
ACROSS THE NORTH AND ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S DOWN EAST WITH
AN ONSHORE FLOW.
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST MONDAY NIGHT WHILE AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL
TO THE WEST ACROSS QUEBEC. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE
AND FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS DOWN EAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH TO THE EAST AND THE LOW OFF TO THE
SOUTH. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL START
TO MOVE IN DURING TUESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ANY
TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE THE BETTER DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED. HIGHS
ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S DOWN EAST TO THE UPPER 60S
TO NEAR 70 NORTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ENDING BY MIDNIGHT.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
WITH DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH
WILL MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH DURING
THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
50S.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: 615 AM UPDATE...A 3500 FT DECK(STRATOCUMULUS) HAS MADE
ITS WAY S INTO NORTHERN AREAS W/CIRRUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS.
AMENDED THE NORTHERN TERMINALS TO PLAY FOR THE STRAOCUMULUS DECK.
OTHERWISE...VFR RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT. A LIGHT CHOP EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM: VFR MONDAY. IFR/LIFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY ESPECIALLY KBGR/KBHB WITH LOW
CLOUDS/AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
EAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. VFR TO START THURSDAY THEN
POSSIBLY MVFR AT TIMES IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES THIS TERM. SUSTAINED WINDS TO AVERAGE 10
KTS W/A FEW GUSTS OF 20 KTS EARLY TODAY FOR THE OUTER ZONE FROM
SCHOODIC POINT TO STONINGTON. SEAS OF 2-3 AWAY FROM THE INTRA-
COASTAL ZONE.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. VISIBILITIES WILL DECREASE TO AROUND A
MILE OR LESS AT TIMES IN AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE MONDAY NIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
354 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM QUEBEC TODAY. THIS HIGH WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE MAIN CHALLENGES THIS TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND WIND.
HIGH PRES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY. 06Z IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE W/SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
ESE FROM CANADA. THE 00Z NAM AND THE LATEST HRRR 3KM HANDLED THIS
HIGH CLOUDINESS WELL. THIS HIGH CLOUDINESS APPEARED TO BE IN
ASSOCIATION W/SHEARED VORTICITY MOVING SE FROM CANADA. THE NAM AND
HRRR 3KM MODEL SHOW SOME OF THIS CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST AREAS TODAY W/THE MAJORITY OF IT BEING THIN. FURTHER
NORTH, MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY W/A
NORTHERLY WIND IN PLACE IN LLVLS. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 70S NORTH AND WEST W/MID TO UPPER 70S
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. A SEA BREEZE LOOKS LIKE IT COULD SET UP
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST KEEPING THING COOLER SAY ALONG THE BAR
HARBOR TO MACHIAS. 00Z UA SHOWED A 30 KT JET MAX RESIDING AT
850MBS IN QUEBEC. THIS JET MAX IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. MODEL SOUNDING SHOW INVERTED V IN THE BLYR W/SOME OF
THIS WIND TO MIX DOWN TO THE SFC. THEREFORE, INCREASED THE GUSTS
BY 5 MPH TODAY PLAYING FOR GUSTS TO HIT 20 KT MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.
FOR TONIGHT, HIGH PRES WILL MOVE TO THE E W/THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION. SOUNDING DATA INDICATED DRY THROUGH THE COLUMN
W/CLEAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT W/THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO
THE REGION. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DROP OFF LESS THAN 7 MPH
W/TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK OVERNIGHT. READINGS BY DAYBREAK ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH AND WEST W/50-55
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE MAINE COAST DURING MONDAY WITH
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE AROUND 70
ACROSS THE NORTH AND ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S DOWN EAST WITH
AN ONSHORE FLOW.
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST MONDAY NIGHT WHILE AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL
TO THE WEST ACROSS QUEBEC. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE
AND FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS DOWN EAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH TO THE EAST AND THE LOW OFF TO THE
SOUTH. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL START
TO MOVE IN DURING TUESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ANY
TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE THE BETTER DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED. HIGHS
ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S DOWN EAST TO THE UPPER 60S
TO NEAR 70 NORTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ENDING BY MIDNIGHT.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
WITH DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH
WILL MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH DURING
THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
50S.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT. A LIGHT CHOP EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM: VFR MONDAY. IFR/LIFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY ESPECIALLY KBGR/KBHB WITH LOW
CLOUDS/AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
EAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. VFR TO START THURSDAY THEN
POSSIBLY MVFR AT TIMES IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES THIS TERM. SUSTAINED WINDS TO AVERAGE 10
KTS W/A FEW GUSTS OF 20 KTS EARLY TODAY FOR THE OUTER ZONE FROM
SCHOODIC POINT TO STONINGTON. SEAS OF 2-3 AWAY FROM THE INTRA-
COASTAL ZONE.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. VISIBILITIES WILL DECREASE TO AROUND A
MILE OR LESS AT TIMES IN AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE MONDAY NIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
125 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THEN CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
115 AM UPDATE...HRLY TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED TO MATCH UP W/THE LATEST
CONDITIONS. DRIER HAS POURED INTO THE REGION AS EVIDENT OF THE
DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH
AND WEST WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WERE SEEING UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE. THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR 3KM MODEL HAD A
GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SETUP. CLEAR CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA THROUGH THIS MORNING W/SOME CIRRUS MOVING
ACROSS SW AND SOUTHERN AREAS BUT THIN FOR THE MOST PART.
THEREFORE, OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE ALLOWED TO DROP SOME MORE BY
DAYBREAK. WNW 5-10 MPH WILL KEEP THE BLYR MIXED A BIT KEEPING
TEMPS UP SOME HOWEVER.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM CANADA WILL BRING CLEAR AND
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH
CRESTS OVER THE STATE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE
FROM 70 OVER THE NORTH TO THE MID 70S DOWNEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. A WEAK AND POORLY ORGANIZED TROUGH WILL
THEN BEGIN TO APPROACH ON MONDAY. THE TROUGH SEEMS TO HAVE TWO
SHORTWAVES, ONE WHICH IS ROUNDING THE TOP OF A RIDGE CENTERED IN
THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL BE SLIDING BY TO OUR SOUTH, AND ANOTHER
ROUNDING THE BOTTOM OF A CENTRAL CANADIAN TROUGH WHICH WILL BE
TRACKING TO OUR NORTH. BETWEEN THE TWO, SOME CLOUDINESS AND CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS WILL BE WITH US MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES
INTO THE AREA AND COOLER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT. MODELS ARE SHOWING
SOME DIVERGENCE ALOFT BETWEEN THE SE RIDGE AND N TROUGH WHICH MAY
SUPPORT LIFT, AND CAPES ARE CURRENTLY PROGGED TO RUN UP TO AROUND
600 J/KG ON TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY WITH SOME CLEARING POSSIBLY WORKING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATE IN THE DAY AS ANY SHOWERS/T STORMS MOVE INTO THE SE PART OF
THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY LINGER AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
GREATEST RISK FOR PRECIP AT THIS TIME IS OVER CENTRAL AND DOWN
EAST LOCATIONS, WITH CLEARING LIKELY BY 06Z WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ALLOWS FOR LIGHT WINDS LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR MUCH OF THE
DAY WEDNESDAY, BUT CLOUDS LIKELY MOVE IN OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM.
REGARDING THIS NEXT DISTURBANCE, THERE WAS SIGNIFICANT
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS ON THE
SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM, AS THERE HAD BEEN FOR THE PAST DAY OR SO.
THE GFS WAS A GOOD 24 HOURS OR SO AHEAD OF THE ECMWF, WITH THE
LATTER FORMING A 500MB CUTOFF OVER EASTERN CANADA AND HITTING THE
BRAKES. DECIDED TO ANGLE THE FORECAST TOWARD THE 12Z GFS SOLUTION,
AS IT SEEMED A BIT MORE REASONABLE AND THE 12Z CANADIAN WAS MUCH
CLOSER TO THE GFS. WHILE IT CAME IN AFTER MOST OF THE FORECAST
EDITS WERE ALREADY MADE, IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE 12Z ECMWF IS
MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MUCH CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION,
INCREASING FORECASTER CONFIDENCE. RELATIVE TO SUPERBLEND, POPS
WERE DECREASED 12Z FRI TO 12Z SAT TO SHOW A BETTER PROGRESSION OF
THE SYSTEM OUT OF THE AREA, WHILE RETAINING SOME CHC POPS OVER
NORTHERN MAINE TO REFLECT POSSIBLE LINGERING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL GUST FROM THE NW AROUND
20S THROUGH 02Z AT NORTHERN TERMINALS OF FVE AND CAR BUT DIMINISH
AFTER THIS TIME AND BCM LGT/VRB AT BGR AND BHB TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR AT SOME SITES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY IN LOW CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH MONDAY AND
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1041 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH AND WILL STALL
OUT NEAR NEAR THE POTOMAC RIVER TODAY BEFORE MOVING TO THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY TO THE
NORTH. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RETURN NORTH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUIET MORNING WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT...ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF
WARMING. ON GOING CONVECTION OVER WV SLOWLY WORKING EAST...WHICH
SHOULD MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS BY MIDDAY. THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF
THE AREA REMAINS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR WX...WITH THE BEST CHC
FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT LOOKING TO BE LATE THIS AFTN THRU THE
EVENING (22-03Z). LATEST HRRR RUNS DEVELOPS SCT ACTIVITY DURING
THE AFTN...AS A RESULT OF DECENT INSTABILITY...THEN DEVELOPS A
MORE LINEAR FEATURE THIS EVENING CLOSE TO 00Z WHEN THE SHORTWAVE
PROGRESSES THRU. HAVE CAPPED LIKELY POPS MAINLY NEAR THE MASON-
DIXON LINE WITH SCT WORDING EVERYWHERE ELSE TO THE SOUTH. SHEAR
REMAINS ON THE WEAKER SIDE BUT THINKING WITH CAPE VALUES BETWEEN
1000-1500 J/KG COULD DEFINITELY STILL SEE STRONGER TO POSSIBLY SVR
CELLS OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS WITH WIND AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL
BEING THE MAIN THREATS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE TNGT PD BUT ARE XPCTD
TO WEAKEN BY MID EVE...THEN ANOTHER SULTRY NGT W/ PSBL ISOLD
TSTMS. LOWS AGN A70 XCPT M70S IN THE CITIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. MORE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.
IN FACT...IT WILL LIKELY TURN OUT EVEN HOTTER DURING THESE DAYS DUE
TO MORE OF A DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE THAT
EXTENDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 90S
ACROSS MOST AREAS EACH DAY.
THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY. ALSO...UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BE PASSING THROUGH
IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. TYPICALLY...IT IS DIFFICULT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH A SURFACE WESTERLY FLOW...BUT GIVEN
THE SHORTWAVES ALOFT ALONG WITH THE MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. PERHAPS
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA DUE TO LOWER HEIGHTS AND LESS OF A DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW. SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP...GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE INSTABILITY
AND UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ALOFT.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT. CONVECTION SHOULD STILL DISSIPATE IN COVERAGE DUE TO THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND IT WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID.
THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED OUT NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE LITTLE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY...SO WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THERE MAY
BE MORE COVERAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY...PASSING THROUGH OUR AREA.
DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE TAF PERIOD. TSTMS PSBL ALL TAF
SITES THIS AFTN/EVENING...MAINLY 21-03Z...WITH GUSTY TO STRONG
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL AS THE MAIN THREATS. PSBL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
AS WELL WITH ANY TSTM.
THE MAIN CONCERN MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A FEW WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...HAIL AND REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS XPCTD TO RMN BLO SCA VALUES TDA/TNGT. TSTMS PSBL THIS
AFTN/EVE WHICH MAY NECESSITATE NEED FOR SPL MARINE WRNGS.
A BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE WATER TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT NEAR
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP MAY
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. ALSO...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS TUESDAY.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1147 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
.AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST ADVANCING COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH EXTREMELY MOIST
LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL MAINTAIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WHILE AN EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM REMAINS PLAUSIBLE...COVERAGE WILL REMAIN TOO LIMITED TO
MENTION. CEILINGS HEIGHTS WILL CARRY MORE VARIABILITY WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...SOME INTERMITTENT REDUCTION INTO MVFR
PLAUSIBLE WITHIN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. DRIER POST-FRONTAL AIR
TAKES A STRONGER HOLD WITH DEFINITIVE CLEARING EXPECTED BY LATE
MORNING TUESDAY.
FOR DTW...FAVORABLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT MAINTAINS HIGHER LIKELIHOOD
FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WITH INTERMITTENT MVFR THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT. PROBABALITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS TOO LOW TO
MENTION.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET TONIGHT.
* LOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE AIRSPACE TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 850 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
UPDATE...
EXTREMELY MOIST LOW LEVEL PROFILE /00Z DTX SOUNDING SHOWS PW AT 2.0
INCHES...OR NEAR 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL/ PROVIDING THE MAIN
BACKDROP FOR CONTINUED CONVECTIVE SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDER
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. NOTED INCREASE
IN COVERAGE IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE INBOUND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
TRI-CITIES NOW...WITH MORE EXTENSIVE EXPANSION ANCHORED WITHIN
THE HIGHER INSTABILITY GRADIENT ELONGATED FROM CHICAGO INTO
NORTHERN INDIANA. RECENT HI RES GUIDANCE AND RAP ANALYSIS
TRANSLATE SOME FORM OF THIS UPSTREAM CONVECTION...LIKELY IN
COMBINATION WITH INCREASING FRONTAL FORCING...INTO THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF SE MICHIGAN WITHIN THE 03Z-07Z PERIOD. THIS LEAVES A
NARROWING BUT STILL LEGITIMATE OPPORTUNITY FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAINFALL TO IMPACT THE DETROIT METRO AREA AND POINTS SOUTHWARD.
GIVEN THE AMBIENT MOISTURE IN PLACE...NO CHOICE BUT TO HOLD THE
LINE FOR NOW WITH CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND MIDNIGHT
EXPIRATION...WITH A LATE EXTENSION INTO THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD
POSSIBLE SHOULD RADAR TRENDS DICTATE.
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 411 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. CONTINUES TO FEED WARM MOIST AIR UP INTO MICHIGAN. PW VALUES
SHOULD BE RISING BACK UP BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2.0 INCHES BY THIS
EVENING...AS INFERRED BY MODEL DATA AND UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS ON 12Z
RAOBS. SEVERAL SMALL SHORTWAVES AND A LARGER ONE OVER IOWA WILL RIDE
UP INTO LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...HELPING TO WRING OUT
MOISTURE. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO WILL
DROP A STRONG SURFACE TROUGH DOWN ACROSS THIS AREA THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. WEAK WARM FRONT THAT DROPPED THROUGH YESTERDAY IS WORKING
BACK UP INTO THE AREA NOW...HELPING TO FIRE OFF CONVECTION OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE. COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DROP THROUGH
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...AND IS THE TRIGGER FOR CURRENT
CONVECTION EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE U.P. THROUGH WISCONSIN. RADAR
SHOULD CONTINUE TO FILL IN THROUGH THE EVENING AS ADDITIONAL
ELEMENTS COME INTO PLAY...LOW-LEVEL JET WILL NOSE INTO FAR SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN...THE UPPER WAVE OVER IOWA WILL DRAW CLOSER...AND WE WILL
BECOME POSITIONED UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JETLET
DROPPING THROUGH CANADA...ALL AS THE WARM FRONT AND THEN COLD FRONT
WORK THROUGH.
OVERALL EXPECT A BROAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP ALONG/NORTH
OF THE I-69 CORRIDOR...TRANSITIONING TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THERE WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY IS
LOCATED. WITH REGARD TO INSTABILITY...TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE ML
CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG (MAINLY SOUTH OF M-59). MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ONLY BETWEEN 5-6 C/KM SHOULD HELP LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL...HOWEVER
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD AND PRECIP LOADING COULD HELP PRODUCE AN
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST IF A CELL CAN GROW STRONG ENOUGH. MAIN
THREAT HOWEVER IS FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING. WE HAVE ALREADY HAD A
FEW REPORTS OF THUNDERSTORMS DROPPING HEAVY RAIN UPSTREAM...2.07
INCHES IN 3 HOURS IN VAN BUREN COUNTY (MI)...1.23 INCHES IN 1 HOUR
IN CASS COUNTY (MI)...AND 1.5 INCHES IN 35 MINUTES IN PLYMOUTH,
INDIANA.
LONG TERM...
MOIST RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DOWNSTREAM ANTICYCLONE WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM HUMIDITY AND HEAVY RAIN
OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN IS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AS HEIGHT FALLS
TRANSITING THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES SUPPRESS THE RESIDENT BAROCLINIC
ZONE TO THE SOUTH. NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW WILL CONFINE HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 70S WITH DRY ADVECTION FORCING DEWPOINTS
TO INTO THE 50S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY. SHOULD FEEL LIKE
A MORE TYPICAL JUNE DAY IN SE MICHIGAN, THOUGH SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE WILL EXIST FOR A HEALTHY AFTERNOON CU COVERAGE.
CONFLUENT FLOW WITHIN PREVAILING WESTERLIES OVER CANADA
WILL FORCE TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE TO RACE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT, FORCING SURFACE WINDS TO VEER TO AN
EASTERLY FETCH FAVORABLE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE 50S...POSSIBLY
UPPER 40S ALONG THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE.
FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH WEDNESDAY AS DEEPER HEIGHT FALLS EMERGE
ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE. TUESDAY NIGHT NOCTURNAL JET WILL AID
NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT OF 2 TO 2.25" PWATS INTO THE WARM
SECTOR OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. NWP SUGGEST THE GREATEST MOISTURE
CONTENT WILL REMAIN SOUTH, BUT WILL NONETHELESS REMAIN ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH OVER SE MICH IN THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONTAL ZONE. ESSENTIALLY A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST BASED ON THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE
EXCEPTION THAT BETTER PROGGED SHORTWAVE DYNAMICS INCREASES
CONFIDENCE IN GREATER COVERAGE. BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY AND
INCREASED QPF. EVER-PRESENT MARGINAL SEVERE RISK REMAINS BUT ATTM
THIS SEASON`S THEME OF PALTRY MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE,
LIMITING CONCERNS TO SPORADIC WIND POTENTIAL, IF ANYTHING.
A TRICKY FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THESE SHORTWAVES
WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF DRY PERIOD RETURNS FOR FRIDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. UNSETTLED WEATHER
RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE INCREASING INTO THE LOW
80S FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. WARMER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY RESULTING
IN LOW TEMPS ON SUNDAY NIGHT TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER IN THE UPPER
60S.
MARINE...
GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WIND EVENTS ON THE HORIZON. EPISODES OF
FOG...PERHAPS LOCALLY DENSE...WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL
PLAGUE THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY ERIE AND SAINT CLAIR TODAY AND THEN
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....MR
UPDATE.......MR
SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....JVC/RK
MARINE.......JVC
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION TO UPDATE
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
850 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
.UPDATE...
EXTREMELY MOIST LOW LEVEL PROFILE /00Z DTX SOUNDING SHOWS PW AT 2.0
INCHES...OR NEAR 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL/ PROVIDING THE MAIN
BACKDROP FOR CONTINUED CONVECTIVE SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDER
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. NOTED INCREASE
IN COVERAGE IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE INBOUND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
TRI-CITIES NOW...WITH MORE EXTENSIVE EXPANSION ANCHORED WITHIN
THE HIGHER INSTABILITY GRADIENT ELONGATED FROM CHICAGO INTO
NORTHERN INDIANA. RECENT HI RES GUIDANCE AND RAP ANALYSIS
TRANSLATE SOME FORM OF THIS UPSTREAM CONVECTION...LIKELY IN
COMBINATION WITH INCREASING FRONTAL FORCING...INTO THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF SE MICHIGAN WITHIN THE 03Z-07Z PERIOD. THIS LEAVES A
NARROWING BUT STILL LEGITIMATE OPPORTUNITY FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAINFALL TO IMPACT THE DETROIT METRO AREA AND POINTS SOUTHWARD.
GIVEN THE AMBIENT MOISTURE IN PLACE...NO CHOICE BUT TO HOLD THE
LINE FOR NOW WITH CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND MIDNIGHT
EXPIRATION...WITH A LATE EXTENSION INTO THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD
POSSIBLE SHOULD RADAR TRENDS DICTATE.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 707 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
EXTREMELY MOIST LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL MAINTAIN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR SOME DEGREE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT BOTH
PRECEDING AND WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
THE PROBABILITY FOR A GREATER COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS RAPIDLY
DIMINISHING AS THE BETTER INSTABILITY SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE REGION.
THIS TREND FAVORS NO DEFINED MENTION OF THUNDER GOING FORWARD.
CEILINGS HEIGHTS WILL CARRY MORE VARIABILITY THROUGH THIS
TIME...SOME INTERMITTENT REDUCTION INTO MVFR PLAUSIBLE WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS. GREATEST WINDOW FOR PREVAILING MVFR CENTERED
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DURING THE EARLY MORNING
PERIOD...THE HIGH NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE CONTENT SUPPORTING A
COMBINATION OF SHALLOW FOG AND STRATUS. DRIER POST-FRONTAL AIR
TAKES A STRONGER HOLD WITH DEFINITIVE CLEARING EXPECTED BY LATE
MORNING TUESDAY.
FOR DTW...FAVORABLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT MAINTAINS HIGHER LIKELIHOOD
FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WITH INTERMITTENT MVFR THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT. DIMINISHING PROBABALITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS...
QUESTIONABLE COVERAGE/TIMING NO LONGER WARRANTS A MENTION.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* MEDIUM FOR CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH TONIGHT.
* LOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE AIRSPACE THROUGH TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 411 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. CONTINUES TO FEED WARM MOIST AIR UP INTO MICHIGAN. PW VALUES
SHOULD BE RISING BACK UP BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2.0 INCHES BY THIS
EVENING...AS INFERRED BY MODEL DATA AND UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS ON 12Z
RAOBS. SEVERAL SMALL SHORTWAVES AND A LARGER ONE OVER IOWA WILL RIDE
UP INTO LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...HELPING TO WRING OUT
MOISTURE. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO WILL
DROP A STRONG SURFACE TROUGH DOWN ACROSS THIS AREA THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. WEAK WARM FRONT THAT DROPPED THROUGH YESTERDAY IS WORKING
BACK UP INTO THE AREA NOW...HELPING TO FIRE OFF CONVECTION OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE. COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DROP THROUGH
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...AND IS THE TRIGGER FOR CURRENT
CONVECTION EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE U.P. THROUGH WISCONSIN. RADAR
SHOULD CONTINUE TO FILL IN THROUGH THE EVENING AS ADDITIONAL
ELEMENTS COME INTO PLAY...LOW-LEVEL JET WILL NOSE INTO FAR SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN...THE UPPER WAVE OVER IOWA WILL DRAW CLOSER...AND WE WILL
BECOME POSITIONED UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JETLET
DROPPING THROUGH CANADA...ALL AS THE WARM FRONT AND THEN COLD FRONT
WORK THROUGH.
OVERALL EXPECT A BROAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP ALONG/NORTH
OF THE I-69 CORRIDOR...TRANSITIONING TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THERE WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY IS
LOCATED. WITH REGARD TO INSTABILITY...TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE ML
CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG (MAINLY SOUTH OF M-59). MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ONLY BETWEEN 5-6 C/KM SHOULD HELP LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL...HOWEVER
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD AND PRECIP LOADING COULD HELP PRODUCE AN
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST IF A CELL CAN GROW STRONG ENOUGH. MAIN
THREAT HOWEVER IS FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING. WE HAVE ALREADY HAD A
FEW REPORTS OF THUNDERSTORMS DROPPING HEAVY RAIN UPSTREAM...2.07
INCHES IN 3 HOURS IN VAN BUREN COUNTY (MI)...1.23 INCHES IN 1 HOUR
IN CASS COUNTY (MI)...AND 1.5 INCHES IN 35 MINUTES IN PLYMOUTH,
INDIANA.
LONG TERM...
MOIST RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DOWNSTREAM ANTICYCLONE WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM HUMIDITY AND HEAVY RAIN
OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN IS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AS HEIGHT FALLS
TRANSITING THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES SUPPRESS THE RESIDENT BAROCLINIC
ZONE TO THE SOUTH. NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW WILL CONFINE HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 70S WITH DRY ADVECTION FORCING DEWPOINTS
TO INTO THE 50S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY. SHOULD FEEL LIKE
A MORE TYPICAL JUNE DAY IN SE MICHIGAN, THOUGH SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE WILL EXIST FOR A HEALTHY AFTERNOON CU COVERAGE.
CONFLUENT FLOW WITHIN PREVAILING WESTERLIES OVER CANADA
WILL FORCE TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE TO RACE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT, FORCING SURFACE WINDS TO VEER TO AN
EASTERLY FETCH FAVORABLE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE 50S...POSSIBLY
UPPER 40S ALONG THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE.
FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH WEDNESDAY AS DEEPER HEIGHT FALLS EMERGE
ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE. TUESDAY NIGHT NOCTURNAL JET WILL AID
NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT OF 2 TO 2.25" PWATS INTO THE WARM
SECTOR OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. NWP SUGGEST THE GREATEST MOISTURE
CONTENT WILL REMAIN SOUTH, BUT WILL NONETHELESS REMAIN ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH OVER SE MICH IN THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONTAL ZONE. ESSENTIALLY A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST BASED ON THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE
EXCEPTION THAT BETTER PROGGED SHORTWAVE DYNAMICS INCREASES
CONFIDENCE IN GREATER COVERAGE. BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY AND
INCREASED QPF. EVER-PRESENT MARGINAL SEVERE RISK REMAINS BUT ATTM
THIS SEASON`S THEME OF PALTRY MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE,
LIMITING CONCERNS TO SPORADIC WIND POTENTIAL, IF ANYTHING.
A TRICKY FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THESE SHORTWAVES
WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF DRY PERIOD RETURNS FOR FRIDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. UNSETTLED WEATHER
RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE INCREASING INTO THE LOW
80S FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. WARMER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY RESULTING
IN LOW TEMPS ON SUNDAY NIGHT TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER IN THE UPPER
60S.
MARINE...
GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WIND EVENTS ON THE HORIZON. EPISODES OF
FOG...PERHAPS LOCALLY DENSE...WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL
PLAGUE THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY ERIE AND SAINT CLAIR TODAY AND THEN
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MIZ060>063-068>070-
075-076-082-083.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......MR
AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....JVC/RK
MARINE.......JVC
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
150 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SW FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE UPR GRT LKS BTWN UPR RDG AXIS ORIENTED FM JAMES BAY INTO
THE SE CONUS AND AN UPR TROF OVER WRN CANADA/NRN ROCKIES. SHRTWV
EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS THAT FELL
ON SAT EVNG IS NOW OVER LK SUP AND LIFTING TO THE NE. VIGOROUS MID
LVL DRYING UNDER THE DNVA/SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS
DISTURBANCE....REFLECTED BY 00Z H7-5 DEWPT DEPRESSIONS OF 15-20C AT
THE RAOB SITES UPSTREAM OF UPR MI...HAS ENDED THE SHOWERS OVER THE
CWA. BUT WITH LINGERING LLVL MSTR UNDER THE MID LVL DRYING IN THE
PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING...AREAS OF FOG HAVE FORMED. THIS FOG
HAS BECOME LOCALLY DENSE ESPECIALLY OVER THE KEWEENAW AND NEAR LK MI
WHERE THE LIGHT LLVL E WIND IS ONSHORE. THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF
SHOWERS/TS STRETCHING FM SE WI INTO SW LOWER MI...BUT THE
RESPONSIBLE SHRTWV/AREA OF H85 THETA E ADVECTION ARE ON TRACK TO
PASS FAR ENUF TO THE SE SO THAT THIS PCPN SHOULD MISS THE CWA.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...A SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE WRN TROF IS MOVING THRU
THE NRN ROCKIES AND BRINGING SOME SHOWERS/TS AS FAR E AS THE NRN
PLAINS.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON FOG/LO CLDS AND ALSO
POPS MAINLY LATE TNGT AS THE SHRTWV IN THE NRN ROCKIES WITHIN THE
SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE UPR TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FNT APRCH FM THE W.
TODAY...UPR MI WL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LARGER SCALE QVECTOR
DVGC/H85-5 DRYING UNDER SHRTWV RDG AXIS. HOW PERSISTENT FOG/LO CLDS
WL BE IS THUS THE MAIN CONCERN. GIVEN THE HI JUN SUN ANGLE AND THE
ABSENCE OF THICKER MID CLDS...EXPECT DAYTIME HEATING TO GRDLY LIFT
THE LO CLD CIG/FOG BY NOON AT MOST PLACES. BEST CHC FOR MORE
PERSISTENT FOG/STRATUS WL BE ALONG THE LK SHORES...WHERE PROXIMITY
TO CHILLY WATERS WL MAINTAIN HIER NEAR SFC RH. WL ISSUE AN SPS TO
HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DENSE FOG THIS MRNG FOR THE
KEWEENAW AND NEAR LK MI. PREVIOUS FCST HAD SOME MRNG DRIZZLE...OPTED
TO MAINTAIN THIS FCST. A FEW MODELS ALSO GENERATE SOME QPF/SHOWERS
OVER THE MAINLY THE E HALF THIS AFTN IN AREA OF CNVGC BTWN LK BREEZES
OFF LKS SUP AND MI...BUT FCST SDNGS SHOW SUCH AN IMPRESSIVE
SUBSIDENCE INVRN THAT THIS OUTCOME SEEMS UNLIKELY.
TONIGHT...EXPECT AT LEAST PATCHY FOG TO REDEVELOP TNGT WITH
NOCTURNAL COOLING AS MID LVL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE ARE FCST TO REMAIN
IN PLACE THRU AT LEAST 06Z. BUT LATE TNGT...ARRIVAL OF SOME DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC/MID LVL MSTR OVER THE W IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV NOW OVER
THE NRN ROCKIES MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS. SINCE MUCAPE IS FCST TO BE
NO HIER THAN ABOUT 250 J/KG AND THE MSTR RIBBON WL BE ARRIVING IN
ABSENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING...DID NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF TS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
LOW PRESSURE PUSHING ACROSS HUDSON BAY WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT OVER
THE REGION MONDAY /OVER THE FAR W THIRD OF THE CWA AROUND 12Z
MONDAY/...AND THE E AROUND 18Z/. COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
FRONT MOVES OVER THE E HALF...WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE OFF BOTH LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MI AND BETTER
INSTABILITY WITH DAYTIME HEATING. CAPE VALUES LOOK TO TOP OUT 200-
400J/KG CENTRAL AND E.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND INTO E MT MONDAY
MORNING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE N PLAINS...AND SHIFT OVER UPPER MI
TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY EXIT E TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER
SHOULD BE THE RULE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. EXPECT
LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH CENTERED OVER E UPPER MI
AT 06Z WEDNESDAY SHIFTS E. PW VALUES THERE WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN
THE 0.3 TO 0.5IN...WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 9-10C. LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S LOOKING REASONABLE FOR MORNING LOWS /ESPECIALLY FOR THE
TRADITIONAL COOL FIRE WX SITES/.
AS FOR MIDWEEK...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE NEARING...BUT THERE IS PLENTY
OF DISCREPANCIES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH. STARTING AT AROUND 00Z
THURSDAY THE GFS LOOKS TO BE AROUND 12HRS FASTER THAN BOTH THE 00Z
RUNS OF THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF WITH THE SFC LOW ACROSS ONTARIO. WILL
OPT TO GO WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION. WHILE THE STRONGER FEATURES WILL
REMAIN CLOSER TO HUDSON BAY...AND S INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEY...A SHORTWAVE IN THE OTHERWISE MAINLY ZONAL FLOW WILL
SHIFT IN. GIVEN THE STORMS LIKELY TO OUR S IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO
SEE IF ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO SURGE IN TO WARRANT THE HIGH
END CHANCE POPS. KEPT THESE HIGHER POPS MAINLY INLAND FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR. ANOTHER SYSTEM SLIDING IN FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY LOOKS
TO BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. KEPT THE CHANCE
WORDING FOR THUNDERSTORMS...AND HIGHLIGHTED THEM IN THE HWO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE THREE TAF SITES AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD...BUT DRIER AIR FROM A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD START TO DIMINISH THE CLOUDS OVER THE
NEXT 6 HOURS. THIS DIMINISHMENT WILL AFFECT KIWD FIRST AND THEN TRY
TO MAKE IT TO KCMX/KSAW. BOTH SITES MAY STRUGGLE TO COMPLETELY
ESCAPE THE MVFR CLOUDS...BUT WENT WITH A MORE OPTIMISTIC FORECAST.
AS THE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT...THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL INCREASE
LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE CONTINUED TO
SHOW VISIBILITIES FALLING TO IFR VALUES...BUT COULD SEE PERIODS OF
LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IF THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT COMPLETELY.
FINALLY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. EXPECT IT TO HAVE THE GREATEST INFLUENCE ON KIWD/KSAW AND
HAVE WENT WITH -SHRA AT THOSE SITES. THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH
THESE SHOWERS AT KIWD LATE TONIGHT AND KSAW LATE IN THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
PRESSURE CHANGES ARE MINIMAL...LEADING TO WINDS LESS THAN 25KTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD /OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS/. FOG WILL REMAIN
AN OFF AND ON CONCERN ALONG THE SHORELINE AND E THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. EXPECTING MORE WIDESPREAD FOG TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS FAR NE MANITOBA TODAY TO SLIDE
INTO HUDSON BAY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WHILE DRAGGING A TROUGH
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE N PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE
MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH WILL LIKELY
SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE A RIDGE BUILDS IN ON THURSDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ MONDAY FOR LSZ162.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ MONDAY FOR
LSZ240>244-263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
726 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SW FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE UPR GRT LKS BTWN UPR RDG AXIS ORIENTED FM JAMES BAY INTO
THE SE CONUS AND AN UPR TROF OVER WRN CANADA/NRN ROCKIES. SHRTWV
EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS THAT FELL
ON SAT EVNG IS NOW OVER LK SUP AND LIFTING TO THE NE. VIGOROUS MID
LVL DRYING UNDER THE DNVA/SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS
DISTURBANCE....REFLECTED BY 00Z H7-5 DEWPT DEPRESSIONS OF 15-20C AT
THE RAOB SITES UPSTREAM OF UPR MI...HAS ENDED THE SHOWERS OVER THE
CWA. BUT WITH LINGERING LLVL MSTR UNDER THE MID LVL DRYING IN THE
PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING...AREAS OF FOG HAVE FORMED. THIS FOG
HAS BECOME LOCALLY DENSE ESPECIALLY OVER THE KEWEENAW AND NEAR LK MI
WHERE THE LIGHT LLVL E WIND IS ONSHORE. THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF
SHOWERS/TS STRETCHING FM SE WI INTO SW LOWER MI...BUT THE
RESPONSIBLE SHRTWV/AREA OF H85 THETA E ADVECTION ARE ON TRACK TO
PASS FAR ENUF TO THE SE SO THAT THIS PCPN SHOULD MISS THE CWA.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...A SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE WRN TROF IS MOVING THRU
THE NRN ROCKIES AND BRINGING SOME SHOWERS/TS AS FAR E AS THE NRN
PLAINS.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON FOG/LO CLDS AND ALSO
POPS MAINLY LATE TNGT AS THE SHRTWV IN THE NRN ROCKIES WITHIN THE
SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE UPR TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FNT APRCH FM THE W.
TODAY...UPR MI WL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LARGER SCALE QVECTOR
DVGC/H85-5 DRYING UNDER SHRTWV RDG AXIS. HOW PERSISTENT FOG/LO CLDS
WL BE IS THUS THE MAIN CONCERN. GIVEN THE HI JUN SUN ANGLE AND THE
ABSENCE OF THICKER MID CLDS...EXPECT DAYTIME HEATING TO GRDLY LIFT
THE LO CLD CIG/FOG BY NOON AT MOST PLACES. BEST CHC FOR MORE
PERSISTENT FOG/STRATUS WL BE ALONG THE LK SHORES...WHERE PROXIMITY
TO CHILLY WATERS WL MAINTAIN HIER NEAR SFC RH. WL ISSUE AN SPS TO
HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DENSE FOG THIS MRNG FOR THE
KEWEENAW AND NEAR LK MI. PREVIOUS FCST HAD SOME MRNG DRIZZLE...OPTED
TO MAINTAIN THIS FCST. A FEW MODELS ALSO GENERATE SOME QPF/SHOWERS
OVER THE MAINLY THE E HALF THIS AFTN IN AREA OF CNVGC BTWN LK BREEZES
OFF LKS SUP AND MI...BUT FCST SDNGS SHOW SUCH AN IMPRESSIVE
SUBSIDENCE INVRN THAT THIS OUTCOME SEEMS UNLIKELY.
TONIGHT...EXPECT AT LEAST PATCHY FOG TO REDEVELOP TNGT WITH
NOCTURNAL COOLING AS MID LVL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE ARE FCST TO REMAIN
IN PLACE THRU AT LEAST 06Z. BUT LATE TNGT...ARRIVAL OF SOME DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC/MID LVL MSTR OVER THE W IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV NOW OVER
THE NRN ROCKIES MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS. SINCE MUCAPE IS FCST TO BE
NO HIER THAN ABOUT 250 J/KG AND THE MSTR RIBBON WL BE ARRIVING IN
ABSENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING...DID NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF TS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
LOW PRESSURE PUSHING ACROSS HUDSON BAY WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT OVER
THE REGION MONDAY /OVER THE FAR W THIRD OF THE CWA AROUND 12Z
MONDAY/...AND THE E AROUND 18Z/. COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
FRONT MOVES OVER THE E HALF...WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE OFF BOTH LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MI AND BETTER
INSTABILITY WITH DAYTIME HEATING. CAPE VALUES LOOK TO TOP OUT 200-
400J/KG CENTRAL AND E.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND INTO E MT MONDAY
MORNING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE N PLAINS...AND SHIFT OVER UPPER MI
TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY EXIT E TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER
SHOULD BE THE RULE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. EXPECT
LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH CENTERED OVER E UPPER MI
AT 06Z WEDNESDAY SHIFTS E. PW VALUES THERE WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN
THE 0.3 TO 0.5IN...WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 9-10C. LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S LOOKING REASONABLE FOR MORNING LOWS /ESPECIALLY FOR THE
TRADITIONAL COOL FIRE WX SITES/.
AS FOR MIDWEEK...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE NEARING...BUT THERE IS PLENTY
OF DISCREPANCIES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH. STARTING AT AROUND 00Z
THURSDAY THE GFS LOOKS TO BE AROUND 12HRS FASTER THAN BOTH THE 00Z
RUNS OF THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF WITH THE SFC LOW ACROSS ONTARIO. WILL
OPT TO GO WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION. WHILE THE STRONGER FEATURES WILL
REMAIN CLOSER TO HUDSON BAY...AND S INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEY...A SHORTWAVE IN THE OTHERWISE MAINLY ZONAL FLOW WILL
SHIFT IN. GIVEN THE STORMS LIKELY TO OUR S IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO
SEE IF ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO SURGE IN TO WARRANT THE HIGH
END CHANCE POPS. KEPT THESE HIGHER POPS MAINLY INLAND FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR. ANOTHER SYSTEM SLIDING IN FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY LOOKS
TO BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. KEPT THE CHANCE
WORDING FOR THUNDERSTORMS...AND HIGHLIGHTED THEM IN THE HWO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 726 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
ABUNDANT LLVL MSTR UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS RESULTING IN FOG/LO
CLDS AND LIFR CONDITIONS THIS MRNG AT ALL 3 TAF SITES. BUT DAYTIME
HEATING WL ALLOW CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR BY EARLY THIS AFTN
AND THEN TO VFR BY MID/LATE AFTN. THE IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY TO BE
SLOWEST AT CMX WITH AN UPSLOPE W WIND. WITH ONSET OF NOCTURNAL
COOLING THIS EVNG...EXPECT MORE FOG/LO CLDS TO DEVELOP EXCEPT
PERHAPS AT IWD...WHERE HI CLDS IN ADVANCE OF AN APRCHG COLD FNT MAY
LIMIT THE COOLING. AS THE COLD FNT GETS CLOSER LATE...INCRSG MID
CLDS WL LIKELY BRING IMPROVEMENT AT CMX AND SAW AS WELL.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
PRESSURE CHANGES ARE MINIMAL...LEADING TO WINDS LESS THAN 25KTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD /OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS/. FOG WILL REMAIN
AN OFF AND ON CONCERN ALONG THE SHORELINE AND E THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. EXPECTING MORE WIDESPREAD FOG TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS FAR NE MANITOBA TODAY TO SLIDE
INTO HUDSON BAY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WHILE DRAGGING A TROUGH
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE N PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE
MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH WILL LIKELY
SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE A RIDGE BUILDS IN ON THURSDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
353 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SW FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE UPR GRT LKS BTWN UPR RDG AXIS ORIENTED FM JAMES BAY INTO
THE SE CONUS AND AN UPR TROF OVER WRN CANADA/NRN ROCKIES. SHRTWV
EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS THAT FELL
ON SAT EVNG IS NOW OVER LK SUP AND LIFTING TO THE NE. VIGOROUS MID
LVL DRYING UNDER THE DNVA/SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS
DISTURBANCE....REFLECTED BY 00Z H7-5 DEWPT DEPRESSIONS OF 15-20C AT
THE RAOB SITES UPSTREAM OF UPR MI...HAS ENDED THE SHOWERS OVER THE
CWA. BUT WITH LINGERING LLVL MSTR UNDER THE MID LVL DRYING IN THE
PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING...AREAS OF FOG HAVE FORMED. THIS FOG
HAS BECOME LOCALLY DENSE ESPECIALLY OVER THE KEWEENAW AND NEAR LK MI
WHERE THE LIGHT LLVL E WIND IS ONSHORE. THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF
SHOWERS/TS STRETCHING FM SE WI INTO SW LOWER MI...BUT THE
RESPONSIBLE SHRTWV/AREA OF H85 THETA E ADVECTION ARE ON TRACK TO
PASS FAR ENUF TO THE SE SO THAT THIS PCPN SHOULD MISS THE CWA.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...A SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE WRN TROF IS MOVING THRU
THE NRN ROCKIES AND BRINGING SOME SHOWERS/TS AS FAR E AS THE NRN
PLAINS.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON FOG/LO CLDS AND ALSO
POPS MAINLY LATE TNGT AS THE SHRTWV IN THE NRN ROCKIES WITHIN THE
SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE UPR TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FNT APRCH FM THE W.
TODAY...UPR MI WL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LARGER SCALE QVECTOR
DVGC/H85-5 DRYING UNDER SHRTWV RDG AXIS. HOW PERSISTENT FOG/LO CLDS
WL BE IS THUS THE MAIN CONCERN. GIVEN THE HI JUN SUN ANGLE AND THE
ABSENCE OF THICKER MID CLDS...EXPECT DAYTIME HEATING TO GRDLY LIFT
THE LO CLD CIG/FOG BY NOON AT MOST PLACES. BEST CHC FOR MORE
PERSISTENT FOG/STRATUS WL BE ALONG THE LK SHORES...WHERE PROXIMITY
TO CHILLY WATERS WL MAINTAIN HIER NEAR SFC RH. WL ISSUE AN SPS TO
HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DENSE FOG THIS MRNG FOR THE
KEWEENAW AND NEAR LK MI. PREVIOUS FCST HAD SOME MRNG DRIZZLE...OPTED
TO MAINTAIN THIS FCST. A FEW MODELS ALSO GENERATE SOME QPF/SHOWERS
OVER THE MAINLY THE E HALF THIS AFTN IN AREA OF CNVGC BTWN LK BREEZES
OFF LKS SUP AND MI...BUT FCST SDNGS SHOW SUCH AN IMPRESSIVE
SUBSIDENCE INVRN THAT THIS OUTCOME SEEMS UNLIKELY.
TONIGHT...EXPECT AT LEAST PATCHY FOG TO REDEVELOP TNGT WITH
NOCTURNAL COOLING AS MID LVL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE ARE FCST TO REMAIN
IN PLACE THRU AT LEAST 06Z. BUT LATE TNGT...ARRIVAL OF SOME DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC/MID LVL MSTR OVER THE W IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV NOW OVER
THE NRN ROCKIES MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS. SINCE MUCAPE IS FCST TO BE
NO HIER THAN ABOUT 250 J/KG AND THE MSTR RIBBON WL BE ARRIVING IN
ABSENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING...DID NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF TS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
LOW PRESSURE PUSHING ACROSS HUDSON BAY WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT OVER
THE REGION MONDAY /OVER THE FAR W THIRD OF THE CWA AROUND 12Z
MONDAY/...AND THE E AROUND 18Z/. COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
FRONT MOVES OVER THE E HALF...WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE OFF BOTH LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MI AND BETTER
INSTABILITY WITH DAYTIME HEATING. CAPE VALUES LOOK TO TOP OUT 200-
400J/KG CENTRAL AND E.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND INTO E MT MONDAY
MORNING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE N PLAINS...AND SHIFT OVER UPPER MI
TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY EXIT E TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER
SHOULD BE THE RULE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. EXPECT
LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH CENTERED OVER E UPPER MI
AT 06Z WEDNESDAY SHIFTS E. PW VALUES THERE WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN
THE 0.3 TO 0.5IN...WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 9-10C. LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S LOOKING REASONABLE FOR MORNING LOWS /ESPECIALLY FOR THE
TRADITIONAL COOL FIRE WX SITES/.
AS FOR MIDWEEK...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE NEARING...BUT THERE IS PLENTY
OF DISCREPANCIES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH. STARTING AT AROUND 00Z
THURSDAY THE GFS LOOKS TO BE AROUND 12HRS FASTER THAN BOTH THE 00Z
RUNS OF THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF WITH THE SFC LOW ACROSS ONTARIO. WILL
OPT TO GO WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION. WHILE THE STRONGER FEATURES WILL
REMAIN CLOSER TO HUDSON BAY...AND S INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEY...A SHORTWAVE IN THE OTHERWISE MAINLY ZONAL FLOW WILL
SHIFT IN. GIVEN THE STORMS LIKELY TO OUR S IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO
SEE IF ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO SURGE IN TO WARRANT THE HIGH
END CHANCE POPS. KEPT THESE HIGHER POPS MAINLY INLAND FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR. ANOTHER SYSTEM SLIDING IN FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY LOOKS
TO BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. KEPT THE CHANCE
WORDING FOR THUNDERSTORMS...AND HIGHLIGHTED THEM IN THE HWO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE WAKE OF AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE AREA SAT EVENING. THIS HAS LED
TO CONDITIONS LOWERING TO LIFR/VLIFR FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ALONG
WITH FOG AND DRIZZLE. THE LOW CEILINGS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS BEFORE STARTING TO RISE TOWARDS MVFR OR VFR LATE IN THE
TAF PERIOD. LINGERING LOW-LVL MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO FOG/STRATUS
REDEVELOPING LATE SUN EVENING WITH CONDITIONS AGAIN LOWERING TO MVFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
PRESSURE CHANGES ARE MINIMAL...LEADING TO WINDS LESS THAN 25KTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD /OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS/. FOG WILL REMAIN
AN OFF AND ON CONCERN ALONG THE SHORELINE AND E THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. EXPECTING MORE WIDESPREAD FOG TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS FAR NE MANITOBA TODAY TO SLIDE
INTO HUDSON BAY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WHILE DRAGGING A TROUGH
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE N PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE
MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH WILL LIKELY
SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE A RIDGE BUILDS IN ON THURSDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
349 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN WISCONSIN AT THIS TIME...LEADING TO AN
AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHWEST OF ONTONAGON
SOUTHWEST INTO WEST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS (LOCATED
IN THE COMMA HEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE) WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT AND SHIFT
NORTH ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
MEANWHILE...THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL/EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING (CURRENTLY IN EASTERN WISCONSIN)
AND BE AIDING SHOWERS THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THAT AREA. THUS...HAVE
SHOWN A GRADUAL DIMINISHMENT IN THE POPS OVER THE WEST THIS
EVENING...WITH A TREND TO THE EAST WITH THE BETTER SUPPORT FROM THE
SHORTWAVE AND LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. AS THIS INITIAL PUSH OF
SHOWERS MOVES INTO THE CWA...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA (ALREADY SEEN IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN WISCONSIN WITH LOW
CEILINGS AND 2-3MI VISIBILITIES). THESE LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG WILL
REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE BEEN SEEING
DENSE FOG SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY NORTH ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE IN WISCONSIN THROUGH THE DAY AND WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...WOULD EXPECT FOG (LIKELY DENSE) TO AFFECT
NORTHWEST LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THAT TIME. THE WINDS AREN/T THE MOST
FAVORABLE...BUT WITH WATER TEMPS STILL ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S...HAVE
A FEELING THE FOG WILL REALLY EXPAND/THICKEN TONIGHT AND MAY NEED A
MARINE FOG ADVISORY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION FOG OVER THE LAND
AREAS TOO...BASED ON THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LOW CLOUDS MOVING
NORTH INTO THE AREA. ARE SEEING SOME SPECKS OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING AND THINKING THAT IS LARGELY DUE TO
DRIZZLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CLOUDS. WITH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOWING SOME WEAK LIFT WITHIN THE LOW CLOUDS...WILL SHOW PATCHY
DRIZZLE BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND THEN SHIFTING OVER JUST
THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA TOMORROW MORNING.
A SECOND SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY IN NORTHERN MISSOURI...WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE LOCATED FARTHER
TO THE SOUTHEAST AND ONLY BRUSH THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA
LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. BEHIND THAT SECOND
SHORTWAVE...THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN FEATURES...AS AN UPPER TROUGH
IS MOVING EAST THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. A LOW CENTERED NEAR
WESTERN HUDSON BAY WILL HAVE A COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTH THROUGH
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND THE EASTERN DAKOTAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW LOW THE LOW CLOUDS WILL
STICK AROUND THROUGH THE DAY AND IF ANY OF THE FOG OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL AFFECT THE SHORELINE AREAS UNDER THE LIGHT WINDS.
MODELS SEEM CONSISTENT THAT THERE WILL BE EITHER SOME BREAKS OR
SCATTERING OUT OF THE LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE WESTERN
THIRD OF THE U.P.. BUT BELIEVE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH ADDED LIFT FROM
DIURNAL HEATING AND ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO KEEP CONDITIONS
MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE EASTERN HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA. DID
LINGER SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON FROM GWINN TO NEWBERRY WITH THE ADDED LIFT AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
LOW PRESSURE PUSHING ACROSS HUDSON BAY WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT OVER
THE REGION MONDAY /OVER THE FAR W THIRD OF THE CWA AROUND 12Z
MONDAY/...AND THE E AROUND 18Z/. COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
FRONT MOVES OVER THE E HALF...WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE OFF BOTH LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MI AND BETTER
INSTABILITY WITH DAYTIME HEATING. CAPE VALUES LOOK TO TOP OUT 200-
400J/KG CENTRAL AND E.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND INTO E MT MONDAY
MORNING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE N PLAINS...AND SHIFT OVER UPPER MI
TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY EXIT E TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER
SHOULD BE THE RULE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. EXPECT
LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH CENTERED OVER E UPPER MI
AT 06Z WEDNESDAY SHIFTS E. PW VALUES THERE WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN
THE 0.3 TO 0.5IN...WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 9-10C. LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S LOOKING REASONABLE FOR MORNING LOWS /ESPECIALLY FOR THE
TRADITIONAL COOL FIRE WX SITES/.
AS FOR MIDWEEK...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE NEARING...BUT THERE IS PLENTY
OF DISCREPANCIES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH. STARTING AT AROUND 00Z
THURSDAY THE GFS LOOKS TO BE AROUND 12HRS FASTER THAN BOTH THE 00Z
RUNS OF THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF WITH THE SFC LOW ACROSS ONTARIO. WILL
OPT TO GO WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION. WHILE THE STRONGER FEATURES WILL
REMAIN CLOSER TO HUDSON BAY...AND S INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEY...A SHORTWAVE IN THE OTHERWISE MAINLY ZONAL FLOW WILL
SHIFT IN. GIVEN THE STORMS LIKELY TO OUR S IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO
SEE IF ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO SURGE IN TO WARRANT THE HIGH
END CHANCE POPS. KEPT THESE HIGHER POPS MAINLY INLAND FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR. ANOTHER SYSTEM SLIDING IN FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY LOOKS
TO BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. KEPT THE CHANCE
WORDING FOR THUNDERSTORMS...AND HIGHLIGHTED THEM IN THE HWO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE WAKE OF AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE AREA SAT EVENING. THIS HAS LED
TO CONDITIONS LOWERING TO LIFR/VLIFR FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ALONG
WITH FOG AND DRIZZLE. THE LOW CEILINGS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS BEFORE STARTING TO RISE TOWARDS MVFR OR VFR LATE IN THE
TAF PERIOD. LINGERING LOW-LVL MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO FOG/STRATUS
REDEVELOPING LATE SUN EVENING WITH CONDITIONS AGAIN LOWERING TO MVFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
PRESSURE CHANGES ARE MINIMAL...LEADING TO WINDS LESS THAN 25KTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD /OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS/. FOG WILL REMAIN
AN OFF AND ON CONCERN ALONG THE SHORELINE AND E THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. EXPECTING MORE WIDESPREAD FOG TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS FAR NE MANITOBA TODAY TO SLIDE
INTO HUDSON BAY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WHILE DRAGGING A TROUGH
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE N PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE
MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH WILL LIKELY
SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE A RIDGE BUILDS IN ON THURSDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
124 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN WISCONSIN AT THIS TIME...LEADING TO AN
AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHWEST OF ONTONAGON
SOUTHWEST INTO WEST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS (LOCATED
IN THE COMMA HEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE) WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT AND SHIFT
NORTH ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
MEANWHILE...THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL/EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING (CURRENTLY IN EASTERN WISCONSIN)
AND BE AIDING SHOWERS THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THAT AREA. THUS...HAVE
SHOWN A GRADUAL DIMINISHMENT IN THE POPS OVER THE WEST THIS
EVENING...WITH A TREND TO THE EAST WITH THE BETTER SUPPORT FROM THE
SHORTWAVE AND LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. AS THIS INITIAL PUSH OF
SHOWERS MOVES INTO THE CWA...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA (ALREADY SEEN IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN WISCONSIN WITH LOW
CEILINGS AND 2-3MI VISIBILITIES). THESE LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG WILL
REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE BEEN SEEING
DENSE FOG SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY NORTH ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE IN WISCONSIN THROUGH THE DAY AND WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...WOULD EXPECT FOG (LIKELY DENSE) TO AFFECT
NORTHWEST LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THAT TIME. THE WINDS AREN/T THE MOST
FAVORABLE...BUT WITH WATER TEMPS STILL ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S...HAVE
A FEELING THE FOG WILL REALLY EXPAND/THICKEN TONIGHT AND MAY NEED A
MARINE FOG ADVISORY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION FOG OVER THE LAND
AREAS TOO...BASED ON THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LOW CLOUDS MOVING
NORTH INTO THE AREA. ARE SEEING SOME SPECKS OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING AND THINKING THAT IS LARGELY DUE TO
DRIZZLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CLOUDS. WITH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOWING SOME WEAK LIFT WITHIN THE LOW CLOUDS...WILL SHOW PATCHY
DRIZZLE BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND THEN SHIFTING OVER JUST
THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA TOMORROW MORNING.
A SECOND SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY IN NORTHERN MISSOURI...WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE LOCATED FARTHER
TO THE SOUTHEAST AND ONLY BRUSH THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA
LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. BEHIND THAT SECOND
SHORTWAVE...THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN FEATURES...AS AN UPPER TROUGH
IS MOVING EAST THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. A LOW CENTERED NEAR
WESTERN HUDSON BAY WILL HAVE A COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTH THROUGH
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND THE EASTERN DAKOTAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW LOW THE LOW CLOUDS WILL
STICK AROUND THROUGH THE DAY AND IF ANY OF THE FOG OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL AFFECT THE SHORELINE AREAS UNDER THE LIGHT WINDS.
MODELS SEEM CONSISTENT THAT THERE WILL BE EITHER SOME BREAKS OR
SCATTERING OUT OF THE LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE WESTERN
THIRD OF THE U.P.. BUT BELIEVE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH ADDED LIFT FROM
DIURNAL HEATING AND ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO KEEP CONDITIONS
MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE EASTERN HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA. DID
LINGER SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON FROM GWINN TO NEWBERRY WITH THE ADDED LIFT AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
HOPING MODELS IN THE LONG TERM VERIFY BETTER THAN OVER THE LAST FEW
DAYS...WHEN MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN ABSOLUTELY AWFUL.
SUN NIGHT SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY...BUT DRY FOR THE MOST
PART.
MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT (RESULTING FROM A
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS CANADA) TO DURING THE DAY ON MON...WHICH IF
THAT DID OCCUR WOULD RESULT IN PRECIP MAINLY OVER LAND DURING PEAK
HEATING. WILL RUN WITH CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE...WHICH RESULTS IN
CHANCE POPS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN MON NIGHT AND TUE...RESULTING IN
PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER AND SUNNY SKIES. SHOULD BE A COOLER DAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 70 AS 850MB TEMPS WILL BE
5-8C.
LOW CONFIDENCE FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SAT AS MODELS STRUGGLE TO
HANDLE AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE THAT MAY MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN TUE
NIGHT AND WED NIGHT. ALSO...MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON THE
TIMING/STRENGTH OF A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH THAT MAY MOVE THROUGH
BETWEEN THU AND FRI NIGHT...AND WITH POSSIBLY ANOTHER WAVE NEXT SAT.
WILL JUST RUN WITH A 50/50 BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE WAKE OF AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE AREA SAT EVENING. THIS HAS LED
TO CONDITIONS LOWERING TO LIFR/VLIFR FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ALONG
WITH FOG AND DRIZZLE. THE LOW CEILINGS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS BEFORE STARTING TO RISE TOWARDS MVFR OR VFR LATE IN THE
TAF PERIOD. LINGERING LOW-LVL MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO FOG/STRATUS
REDEVELOPING LATE SUN EVENING WITH CONDITIONS AGAIN LOWERING TO MVFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL LEAD TO WINDS STAYING BELOW 20KTS FOR
MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK. THE STRONGEST WIND ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON
MONDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT...BUT THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 20KTS. WARM AND MOIST AIR STREAMING NORTH INTO THE AREA TODAY
INTO SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.
EXPECT LOCALLY DENSE FOG TO OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...AIDED
BY SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT WILL FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LAKE
TONIGHT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
657 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
THROUGH THIS EVENING...BREEZY NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
A PASSING COLD FRONT. SCATTERED/BROKEN CUMULUS WILL SPREAD THROUGH
NE MINNESOTA...AND THERE COULD BE ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN FORECAST AREA. ADDED THE SHOWERS AS
SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR AND HOPWRF HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE.
LATER TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND THE
DAKOTA WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT INTO MINNESOTA. THERE SHOULD BE
CLEARING OVERNIGHT...AND THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BECOME VERY LIGHT.
THIS WILL PROMOTE RADIATIONAL COOLING...SO LEANED ON THE COOLER
MODEL GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES. LOWS WILL LIKELY
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH THE COLDEST READINGS
ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. MIGHT NEED TO LOWER THE FORECAST EVEN
MORE.
TUESDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN THE DAY OVER
CENTRAL/NORTHERN MINNESOTA...AND IT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST
THROUGH THE DAY. SUNNY SKIES WILL GREET THE NORTHLAND AT SUNRISE
AND THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT THERE SHOULD BE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER FROM THE WEST AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.
SHOWERS COULD SPREAD INTO THE NORTHLAND FROM THE WEST...BEGINNING
IN THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION...LATE IN THE DAY. MOST MODEL
GUIDANCE PRIMARILY HOLDS OFF PCPN UNTIL THE EVENING...AFTER 00Z.
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WED MORNING...BRINGING
RAIN SHOWERS TO A GOOD PORTION OF THE NORTHLAND. AT THIS TIME THE
BULK OF THE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH. A
WEDGE OF DRY AIR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SIT OVER THE NRN GREAT
LAKES AND WRN ONTARIO REGION AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES AND SHUNT
THE TRACK OF THE LOW TO THE SOUTH. KEEPING THE NRN THIRD OF THE
CWA MOSTLY DRY. BY WED AFTERNOON...AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH SRN WI
A STRONGER SURGE OF UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE LIFTED INTO THE AREA AND
POSSIBLY TRIGGER A FEW T-STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
WED NIGHT AS A SECONDARY WEAK FRONT SLIDES ACROSS FAR NE MN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN ON THURSDAY AND THUR NIGHT...BUT MOVE
RAPIDLY TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY AS THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARRIVES ALONG A WARM FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND WITH THE
MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S AND 70S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT...SO AT THIS TIME THERE IS NO INDICATION
OF ANY SORT OF A SIGNIFICANT LAKE BREEZE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE CLOUDS
SLOWLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO QUICKLY
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT FOR MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND ON TUESDAY AND
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MOSTLY BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER LEVELS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 46 68 49 64 / 0 10 40 50
INL 38 70 48 70 / 10 0 20 10
BRD 45 69 52 69 / 10 30 70 50
HYR 43 72 53 67 / 0 0 40 60
ASX 48 68 50 64 / 0 0 30 50
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...TENTINGER
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
308 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
MAIN CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM IS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES AREA OF SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM
INL TO NEAR BJI MOVING EAST. THIS AREA CONTAINED THUNDERSTORMS
EARLIER BUT HAS DECREASED IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES INTO MORE
STABLE AIR. THE CONCERN TONIGHT IS SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT 20Z...THE
FRONT EXTENDED FROM INL THROUGH BJI TO SAZ. BASED ON THE CURRENT
MOVEMENT AND MODEL FORECASTS...IT WILL MOVE THROUGH DLH SOMETIME
THIS EVENING AND OUT OF NW WI BY MONDAY MORNING. THE AREA OUT
AHEAD OF IT IN NE MN RECEIVED A FEW HOURS OF SUN TODAY AND
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. SPC MESOSCALE PAGE
INDICATES SOME INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPES OF 500-700 AND LIFTED
INDEXES OF -2 TO -3. THE HRRR INDICATES A LINE OF PRECIPITATION
WILL FORM ACROSS NORTHERN MN AROUND 21-22Z BUT FALL APART AS IT
MOVES EAST THIS EVENING. THE TWIN PORTS AND ARROWHEAD REGION MAY
SEE SOME PRECIPITATION BUT IT MAY BE WIDELY SCATTERED.
A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT
CLEARING OUT THE SKIES WEST TO EAST BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING.
THERE WILL STILL BE A LINGERING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN NW WI
MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT PASS THROUGH THAT REGION.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER MIDWEST REMAINS IN A ZONAL FLOW WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVES THAT TRANSLATE OVER THE REGION.
AN AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OVER MINNESOTA MONDAY
NIGHT...SETTLING OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL
RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS.
THE NEXT WAVE WILL TRANSLATE EAST OUT OF THE DAKOTAS AND INTO
WESTERN MN TUESDAY NIGHT...TRACKING OVER THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY.
THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS WAVE IS STILL SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN...BUT AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION...EAST ACROSS
THE ST CROIX RIVER VALLEY AND OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A COLD FRONT DROP OUT OF
CANADA AND BRINGS ANOTHER SHOT FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
WITH THE CANADIAN AIR MASS.
THE LATEST ECM/GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT WAVE WITH
AN H85 CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE EAST ALONG THE
CANADIAN/NORTH DAKOTA BORDER LATE IN THE WEEK...SWEEPING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME
FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
STRATUS AND FOG OVER THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING HAS CONDITIONS
VARYING FROM MVFR AT KHYR IN STRATUS...TO IFR IN FOG AND STRATUS
FOR KLH AND KHIB...TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR KINL AND KBRD. FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY ABOUT 15Z...AND THE STRATUS IS SLOWLY
MOVING EAST AND SHOULD BE MIXED OUT AND RETURN TO VFR BETWEEN 15Z
AND 17Z. A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA SHOULD BRING SHOWERS
INTO THE TERMINALS AFTER 18Z...WITH AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY
THROUGH 00Z WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 00Z...BRINGING MVFR VISIBILITIES
AND CIGS. TIMING AND INTENSITY SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN SO HAVE KEPT TO
VCTS AND SOME PROB30 GROUPS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 56 74 47 66 / 60 10 0 0
INL 50 70 41 73 / 30 10 0 0
BRD 58 76 49 73 / 60 10 0 20
HYR 57 78 47 73 / 50 50 0 10
ASX 51 74 47 66 / 40 50 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT MONDAY FOR LSZ121-140>148.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...LE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1234 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE FOG EARLY AND THEN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES ALONG COLD FRONT.
FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER AREAS THAT CLEARED AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAINLY
OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA. VISIBILITY HAS DROPPED TO
1/2SM OR LESS AT TIMES...AND THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE TREND EARLY
THIS MORNING. WILL MENTION PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG THROUGH ABOUT 13Z.
LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS SHOWING MAIN SCATTERED CONVECTION
LIFTING WELL NORTHWEST OF THE CWA ALONG AND BEHIND THE MAIN SURFACE
COLD FRONT. EXPECT THIS EAST NORTH DAKOTAS ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NORTH
OF THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING. THE LATEST HRRR DID SHOW
SOME SHOWER POSSIBILITY INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST CWA THIS
MORNING...BUT THE MAIN SHOW SHOULD BE INTO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THIS MODEL MOVES WHAT APPEARS TO BE A MCV OR VORT MAX ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AT THIS
TIME...INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA THROUGH POSSIBLE 18Z. IT
UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT IT EAST/NORTHEAST AND
SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THE VARIOUS HIRES MODELS THEN MOVE THE FRONT INTO CENTRAL MN BY 04Z
OR SO...A BIT FASTER THAN THE NAM ESPECIALLY...WHICH APPEARS TO BE
THE SLOWEST OF THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS. THE FRONT SHOULD EXIT INTO
WESTERN WI THROUGH 06Z OR SO...WITH AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND OF
CONVECTION. INITIALLY SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS DUE DEVELOP INTO
WESTERN MINNESOTA BY THIS EVENING...WITH GFS MUCAPE PROGGED TO
INCREASE TO AROUND 2000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT/MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES TO NEAR 7.0C/KM AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR 35-40KTS. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AS IT PROPAGATES EAST INTO THE EVENING. SPC`S DAY1 OUTLOOK
OF SLIGHT RISK INTO WEST CENTRAL MN LOOKS REASONABLE AT THE
MOMENT. ALL MODELS INDICATE A WEAKENING TREND OVERNIGHT AS IT
MOVES EAST...AS THE MAIN FORCING DOES RIDE NORTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH THE UPPER JET. SO WILL CONTINUE THE TREND
OF TRAILING OFF LIKELY POPS INTO CENTRAL MN THROUGH 06Z MON.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST HAS INCREASED DURING
THE PAST 24 HOURS AS THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW PRETTY MUCH IN
STEP WITH THE SURFACE AND UPPER AIR PATTERN FOR OUR AREA THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
A COOL FRONT WILL BE MOVING EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FA ON MONDAY.
VARIOUS CAMS SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE MORNING TO
THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE TWIN CITIES ON BACK TO SIOUX FALLS.
THESE WILL DIMINISH OR END DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PASS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MN SHOULD SEE LOWS TUESDAY MORNING IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S.
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO AFFECT THE REGION
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH IN FROM THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TIMING HAS REMAINED VERY CONSISTENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH
LIKELY POPS COVERING MUCH OF THE FA ON WEDNESDAY.
THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD OVER WHAT WAS SEEN A DAY AGO.
THERE LOOKS TO BE A DRY PERIOD ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES BY. THEREFORE...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE REMOVED.
THE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY PERIODS WILL SEE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM MAY CAUSE
SOME PROBLEMS IN THE FORM OF HEAVY RAIN. TO BACK UP...THERE IS A
TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THAT BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF BRING INTO TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THIS FEATURE
MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY LATE IN THE
WEEK. THIS HAS AN AFFECT ON OUR WEATHER SYSTEM COMING IN FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY SLOWING IT DOWN AND STRETCHING OUT A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY JUST TO OUR SOUTH FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AS THIS
OCCURS...WE ARE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
JET...AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WITH THE 925-850MB THETA-E
AXIS POINTING FROM NEBRASKA THROUGH EASTERN MN AND WI. THIS SETUP IS
SIMILAR TO A PREDECESSOR RAIN EVENT WITH A TROPICAL SYSTEM. THE
GFS IS PROGGING PW/S OVER 2 INCHES OVER THE REGION WHICH IS ABOVE
THE DAILY MAX ON THE KMPX SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY. BOTH MODELS SHOW
2-4 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE FA DURING THIS PERIOD AND THIS IS
WHERE THE STORY GETS INTERESTING. A BREAKDOWN ON THE PRECIP TYPE
FROM THE GFS SHOWS THAT THE TOTAL IS DOMINATED BY STABLE PRECIP.
THIS IS SIMILAR TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK WHEN THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS WERE SHOWING HIGH AMOUNTS OF QPF FOR US WHEN THE CAMS
SHOWED IT FARTHER SOUTH. JUST LOOKING AT THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
WITH THE LOW NEAR THE IA/MN BORDER WITH A WARM FRONT TO EXTENDING
TO THE EAST...ONE WOULD THINK THAT THERE SHOULD BE MORE CONVECTIVE
PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH. A CHECK OF THE CIPS ANALOGS FOR 120 HOURS
USING THE GFS SHOWED THE HEAVIEST RAINS WERE FROM IA AND IL ON
SOUTHWARD. WE SHALL SEE. THE END OF WEEK FORECAST DOES HAVE LIKELY
POPS PUSHING EAST AND SOUTH ACROSS THE FA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IS SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN MN
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS AND WHETHER THESE STORMS MOVE INTO
CENTRAL/EC/SC MN DURING THE AFTN/EVENING.
REGIONAL RADAR AND LATEST RAP/HRRR HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
CONVECTION ACROSS FAR WC MN THIS HR. ATMOSPHERE TO THE S/SE OF THE
TWIN CITIES IS DRIER AIR AT MID LEVELS ALLOWING FOR A LOWER
K-INDEX VALUE. BASICALLY SUPPRESSING THE SHRA/TSRA TO MOVE FURTHER
EAST THEN WC/CENTRAL MN DURING THE AFTN. THEREFORE...KEPT ALL MPX
AIRPORT SITES EXCEPT KAXN...TSRA FREE UNTIL THIS EVENING WHERE
BETTER INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ADVECTION DEVELOPS. BASED ON A
WEAKER WIND FIELD IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL BE ISOLD/SCATTERED AT BEST. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH AND SEE IF
ANY LINES/BOW ECHO SEGMENTS DEVELOP...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CONCERNS WITH SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE BEHIND
THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT.
KMSP...
DUE TO DRY MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AND INSTABILITY WEAK
UNTIL THIS EVENING...KEPT TSRA OUT OF THE FIRST 6 HRS OF THE TAF
PERIOD. BEST SCENARIO IS HOLD OFF UNTIL AFT 6Z...WITH A PERIOD OF
1-3 HRS OF SHRA...WITH EMBEDDED TSRA. BY 12Z...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTH WITH SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. CHC OF TSRA LATE. WINDS NE 5 KTS.
WED...MVFR. TSRA/SHRA LIKELY WITH IFR CONDS POSSIBLE. WINDS SE
5-10 KTS BECMG N.
THU...VFR. WINDS N/NNE 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...JLT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
602 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.UPDATE FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE FOG EARLY AND THEN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES ALONG COLD FRONT.
FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER AREAS THAT CLEARED AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAINLY
OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA. VISIBILITY HAS DROPPED TO
1/2SM OR LESS AT TIMES...AND THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE TREND EARLY
THIS MORNING. WILL MENTION PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG THROUGH ABOUT 13Z.
LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS SHOWING MAIN SCATTERED CONVECTION
LIFTING WELL NORTHWEST OF THE CWA ALONG AND BEHIND THE MAIN SURFACE
COLD FRONT. EXPECT THIS EAST NORTH DAKOTAS ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NORTH
OF THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING. THE LATEST HRRR DID SHOW
SOME SHOWER POSSIBILITY INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST CWA THIS
MORNING...BUT THE MAIN SHOW SHOULD BE INTO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THIS MODEL MOVES WHAT APPEARS TO BE A MCV OR VORT MAX ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AT THIS
TIME...INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA THROUGH POSSIBLE 18Z. IT
UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT IT EAST/NORTHEAST AND
SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THE VARIOUS HIRES MODELS THEN MOVE THE FRONT INTO CENTRAL MN BY 04Z
OR SO...A BIT FASTER THAN THE NAM ESPECIALLY...WHICH APPEARS TO BE
THE SLOWEST OF THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS. THE FRONT SHOULD EXIT INTO
WESTERN WI THROUGH 06Z OR SO...WITH AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND OF
CONVECTION. INITIALLY SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS DUE DEVELOP INTO
WESTERN MINNESOTA BY THIS EVENING...WITH GFS MUCAPE PROGGED TO
INCREASE TO AROUND 2000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT/MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES TO NEAR 7.0C/KM AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR 35-40KTS. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AS IT PROPAGATES EAST INTO THE EVENING. SPC`S DAY1 OUTLOOK
OF SLIGHT RISK INTO WEST CENTRAL MN LOOKS REASONABLE AT THE
MOMENT. ALL MODELS INDICATE A WEAKENING TREND OVERNIGHT AS IT
MOVES EAST...AS THE MAIN FORCING DOES RIDE NORTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH THE UPPER JET. SO WILL CONTINUE THE TREND
OF TRAILING OFF LIKELY POPS INTO CENTRAL MN THROUGH 06Z MON.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST HAS INCREASED DURING
THE PAST 24 HOURS AS THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW PRETTY MUCH IN
STEP WITH THE SURFACE AND UPPER AIR PATTERN FOR OUR AREA THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
A COOL FRONT WILL BE MOVING EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FA ON MONDAY.
VARIOUS CAMS SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE MORNING TO
THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE TWIN CITIES ON BACK TO SIOUX FALLS.
THESE WILL DIMINISH OR END DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PASS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MN SHOULD SEE LOWS TUESDAY MORNING IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S.
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO AFFECT THE REGION
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH IN FROM THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TIMING HAS REMAINED VERY CONSISTENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH
LIKELY POPS COVERING MUCH OF THE FA ON WEDNESDAY.
THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD OVER WHAT WAS SEEN A DAY AGO.
THERE LOOKS TO BE A DRY PERIOD ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES BY. THEREFORE...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE REMOVED.
THE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY PERIODS WILL SEE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM MAY CAUSE
SOME PROBLEMS IN THE FORM OF HEAVY RAIN. TO BACK UP...THERE IS A
TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THAT BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF BRING INTO TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THIS FEATURE
MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY LATE IN THE
WEEK. THIS HAS AN AFFECT ON OUR WEATHER SYSTEM COMING IN FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY SLOWING IT DOWN AND STRETCHING OUT A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY JUST TO OUR SOUTH FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AS THIS
OCCURS...WE ARE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
JET...AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WITH THE 925-850MB THETA-E
AXIS POINTING FROM NEBRASKA THROUGH EASTERN MN AND WI. THIS SETUP IS
SIMILAR TO A PREDECESSOR RAIN EVENT WITH A TROPICAL SYSTEM. THE
GFS IS PROGGING PW/S OVER 2 INCHES OVER THE REGION WHICH IS ABOVE
THE DAILY MAX ON THE KMPX SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY. BOTH MODELS SHOW
2-4 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE FA DURING THIS PERIOD AND THIS IS
WHERE THE STORY GETS INTERESTING. A BREAKDOWN ON THE PRECIP TYPE
FROM THE GFS SHOWS THAT THE TOTAL IS DOMINATED BY STABLE PRECIP.
THIS IS SIMILAR TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK WHEN THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS WERE SHOWING HIGH AMOUNTS OF QPF FOR US WHEN THE CAMS
SHOWED IT FARTHER SOUTH. JUST LOOKING AT THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
WITH THE LOW NEAR THE IA/MN BORDER WITH A WARM FRONT TO EXTENDING
TO THE EAST...ONE WOULD THINK THAT THERE SHOULD BE MORE CONVECTIVE
PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH. A CHECK OF THE CIPS ANALOGS FOR 120 HOURS
USING THE GFS SHOWED THE HEAVIEST RAINS WERE FROM IA AND IL ON
SOUTHWARD. WE SHALL SEE. THE END OF WEEK FORECAST DOES HAVE LIKELY
POPS PUSHING EAST AND SOUTH ACROSS THE FA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 559 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
WIDE VARIATION IN VSBYS/CEILINGS THIS MORNING. LOWER IFR LIMITED
TO RIVER VALLEY REGIONS TO THE WEST...AND MORE WIDESPREAD
CONDITIONS TO THE EAST. THIS SHOULD ALL ERODE/LIFT TO VFR THROUGH
ABOUT 15Z. THEN SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES INCREASE FROM THE WEST
AFTER 18Z AT KAXN...SPREADING EAST WITH FROPA BY 05Z IN MN AND
LATER WITH A WEAKENING TREND INTO WESTERN WI. EXPECT MVFR CIGS
FOR A TIME BEHIND FRONT WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTH/NORTHWEST WITH FROPA.
KMSP...
LOW CONFIDENCE ON FOG AND HOW LOW STRATUS WILL AFFECT THE AIRPORT
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE STRATOCU DECK REFORMED AND OVER THE
METRO...AND HAS KEPT MUCH OF THE FOG AT BAY. VSBYS ARE LOWER TO
THE EAST OVER EASTERN METRO...AND IT MAY WORK INTO THE AREA THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AFTER THIS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
UNTIL FROPA LATER TONIGHT. SOME CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH THIS IN
THE 04Z-07Z WINDOW...WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THEREAFTER. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT BECOMING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...LESS THAN 10KTS. FROPA SHOULD GENERATE A NORTH WIND.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON AFTERNOON...VFR. WINDS NNW 10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. CHC OF TSRA LATE. WINDS NE 5-10 KTS.
WED...MVFR. TSRA/SHRA LIKELY WITH IFR CONDS POSSIBLE. WINDS SE
5-10 KTS BECMG NE.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...DWE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
359 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE FOG EARLY AND THEN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES ALONG COLD FRONT.
FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER AREAS THAT CLEARED AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAINLY
OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA. VISIBILITY HAS DROPPED TO
1/2SM OR LESS AT TIMES...AND THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE TREND EARLY
THIS MORNING. WILL MENTION PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG THROUGH ABOUT 13Z.
LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS SHOWING MAIN SCATTERED CONVECTION
LIFTING WELL NORTHWEST OF THE CWA ALONG AND BEHIND THE MAIN SURFACE
COLD FRONT. EXPECT THIS EAST NORTH DAKOTAS ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NORTH
OF THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING. THE LATEST HRRR DID SHOW
SOME SHOWER POSSIBILITY INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST CWA THIS
MORNING...BUT THE MAIN SHOW SHOULD BE INTO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THIS MODEL MOVES WHAT APPEARS TO BE A MCV OR VORT MAX ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AT THIS
TIME...INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA THROUGH POSSIBLE 18Z. IT
UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT IT EAST/NORTHEAST AND
SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THE VARIOUS HIRES MODELS THEN MOVE THE FRONT INTO CENTRAL MN BY 04Z
OR SO...A BIT FASTER THAN THE NAM ESPECIALLY...WHICH APPEARS TO BE
THE SLOWEST OF THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS. THE FRONT SHOULD EXIT INTO
WESTERN WI THROUGH 06Z OR SO...WITH AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND OF
CONVECTION. INITIALLY SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS DUE DEVELOP INTO
WESTERN MINNESOTA BY THIS EVENING...WITH GFS MUCAPE PROGGED TO
INCREASE TO AROUND 2000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT/MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES TO NEAR 7.0C/KM AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR 35-40KTS. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AS IT PROPAGATES EAST INTO THE EVENING. SPC`S DAY1 OUTLOOK
OF SLIGHT RISK INTO WEST CENTRAL MN LOOKS REASONABLE AT THE
MOMENT. ALL MODELS INDICATE A WEAKENING TREND OVERNIGHT AS IT
MOVES EAST...AS THE MAIN FORCING DOES RIDE NORTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH THE UPPER JET. SO WILL CONTINUE THE TREND
OF TRAILING OFF LIKELY POPS INTO CENTRAL MN THROUGH 06Z MON.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST HAS INCREASED DURING
THE PAST 24 HOURS AS THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW PRETTY MUCH IN
STEP WITH THE SURFACE AND UPPER AIR PATTERN FOR OUR AREA THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
A COOL FRONT WILL BE MOVING EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FA ON MONDAY.
VARIOUS CAMS SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE MORNING TO
THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE TWIN CITIES ON BACK TO SIOUX FALLS.
THESE WILL DIMINISH OR END DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PASS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MN SHOULD SEE LOWS TUESDAY MORNING IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S.
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO AFFECT THE REGION
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH IN FROM THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TIMING HAS REMAINED VERY CONSISTENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH
LIKELY POPS COVERING MUCH OF THE FA ON WEDNESDAY.
THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD OVER WHAT WAS SEEN A DAY AGO.
THERE LOOKS TO BE A DRY PERIOD ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES BY. THEREFORE...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE REMOVED.
THE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY PERIODS WILL SEE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM MAY CAUSE
SOME PROBLEMS IN THE FORM OF HEAVY RAIN. TO BACK UP...THERE IS A
TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THAT BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF BRING INTO TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THIS FEATURE
MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY LATE IN THE
WEEK. THIS HAS AN AFFECT ON OUR WEATHER SYSTEM COMING IN FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY SLOWING IT DOWN AND STRETCHING OUT A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY JUST TO OUR SOUTH FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AS THIS
OCCURS...WE ARE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
JET...AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WITH THE 925-850MB THETA-E
AXIS POINTING FROM NEBRASKA THROUGH EASTERN MN AND WI. THIS SETUP IS
SIMILAR TO A PREDECESSOR RAIN EVENT WITH A TROPICAL SYSTEM. THE
GFS IS PROGGING PW/S OVER 2 INCHES OVER THE REGION WHICH IS ABOVE
THE DAILY MAX ON THE KMPX SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY. BOTH MODELS SHOW
2-4 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE FA DURING THIS PERIOD AND THIS IS
WHERE THE STORY GETS INTERESTING. A BREAKDOWN ON THE PRECIP TYPE
FROM THE GFS SHOWS THAT THE TOTAL IS DOMINATED BY STABLE PRECIP.
THIS IS SIMILAR TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK WHEN THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS WERE SHOWING HIGH AMOUNTS OF QPF FOR US WHEN THE CAMS
SHOWED IT FARTHER SOUTH. JUST LOOKING AT THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
WITH THE LOW NEAR THE IA/MN BORDER WITH A WARM FRONT TO EXTENDING
TO THE EAST...ONE WOULD THINK THAT THERE SHOULD BE MORE CONVECTIVE
PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH. A CHECK OF THE CIPS ANALOGS FOR 120 HOURS
USING THE GFS SHOWED THE HEAVIEST RAINS WERE FROM IA AND IL ON
SOUTHWARD. WE SHALL SEE. THE END OF WEEK FORECAST DOES HAVE LIKELY
POPS PUSHING EAST AND SOUTH ACROSS THE FA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1002 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
WE EXPECT CEILINGS AND VIS TO BEGIN LOWERING LATE THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE TAF SITES IN EASTERN MN AND
WESTERN WI HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AT IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY KEAU AND KRNH. THE CLOUDS AND FOG COULD
ALSO BE SLOW TO CLEAR TOMORROW MORNING WITH WEAK WINDS AND THE
LACK OF EXPECTED MIXING.
KMSP...
THE AIRPORT IS TYPICALLY FAIRLY RESISTANT TO FOG...BUT WE THINK
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR AT LEAST SOME FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
LATE TONIGHT GIVEN THE WEAK WINDS AND ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE WORSE ACROSS THE RIVER IN WI. THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDER RETURNS LATE TOMORROW EVENING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. CHC MVFR/SHRA EARLY MONDAY. WINDS NNW 10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. CHC OF TSRA LATE. WINDS NE 5-10 KTS.
WED...MVFR. TSRA/SHRA LIKELY WITH IFR CONDS POSSIBLE. WINDS SE
5-10 KTS BECMG NE.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...CLF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
1013 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.UPDATE...
THE FORECAST THINKING IS GENERALLY THE SAME WITH EXPECTATION FOR
GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS.
AND THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS PRODUCING A SIMILAR SET-UP TO YESTERDAY
WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6 TO 6.5 DEG C/KM RANGE AND ~20KTS
OF LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT STORMS TO ORGANIZE ALONG CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG/SVR WIND
GUSTS. QUICKER STORM MOTIONS SHOULD LIMIT HEAVY RAINFALL DURATION
AND ANY FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL - LOCALLY HEAVY WOULD BE MOSTLY
GOVERNED BY STORM MERGER/BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. HAVE INCREASED POPS
BASED ON GREATER CONFIDENCE IN NEAR TERM GUIDANCE AND RAISED
FORECASTED HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BASED ON TRENDS. /EC/
&&
.AVIATION...MORNING RESTRICTIONS HAVE IMPROVED WITH SOME MVFR
CEILINGS HOLDING DUE TO INITIAL BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING THIS MORNING.
LOOK FOR CEILINGS TO PUSH INTO THE 3-4 KFT RANGE BY 17Z. FOCUS WILL
SHIFT TO SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING BY 17Z AND PUSHING N/NW BETWEEN 17-
22Z. WILL TRY AND TIME THESE AS RESTRICTED CONDITIONS FROM THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE BRIEF. MUCH OF THE PERIOD BETWEEN 23-07Z WILL BE
QUIET AND VFR. LOOK FOR IFR CEILINGS/VIS TO AGAIN DEVELOP AFTER 08-
09Z WITH BETTER FOG POTENTIAL ACROSS THE FAR E SITES BETWEEN 11-12Z.
/CME/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015/
FOR TODAY THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH BEFORE LIFTING. SO HAVE PUT
PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG FOR THOSE AREAS. HIRES MODELS SHOWS VERY
LITTLE ACTIVITY FOR EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AS WE PUSH INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE ACTIVITY
WILL TRACK NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY. EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
TO BE ACROSS THE WEST AND THE LOWEST POPS IN THE EAST WHERE THE RIDGE
INFLUENCE WILL BE THE BEST. WILL BE LOOKING FOR SOME INSTABILITY WITH
LACK OF SHEAR FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH THE IMPRESSIVE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THERE MAY BE A STRONG STORM OR TWO DUE TO
MESOSCALE PROCESSES FROM OTHER STORMS. SOME MORE PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP IN PORTIONS OF THE EAST AND SOUTH FOR EARLY MONDAY. MODELS
SHOWS THAT THE MEAN RIDGE FROM THE EAST WILL HAVE A STRONGER
INFLUENCE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BE REFLECTED BY THE
LOWER POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE REGION. EXPECT THE
ACTIVITY TO DECREASE ACROSS THE WEST HALF DURING THE EVENING. SOME
ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAY LINGER OVER THE FAR WEST ON MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPS
WILL BE GENERALLY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER
70S. /17/
LONG TERM...TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...RAIN CHANCES IN GENERAL
SHOULD BE NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR MID TO LATE JUNE WITH
LEVELS OF HEAT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THERE ACTUALLY IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR EASTERN ZONES TO BE A LITTLE DRY THROUGH THIS
PERIOD..OWING MAINLY TO THE POSITION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH ENCROACHING
FROM THE EAST.
THE BIG WILD CARD FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST OVER OUR REGION WILL BE
THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE WESTERN GULF
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE NHC IS MONITORING FOR DEVELOPMENT VERY
CLOSELY AND MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A WEAK SYSTEM WHICH
IMPACTS THE SE TX COAST AROUND LATE TUESDAY...AND THEN PROGRESSES
NORTH TOWARD THE ARKLATEX AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS RIDGE. IF THIS SYSTEM DOES INDEED DEVELOP AND FOLLOWS THE
EASTERN ENVELOPE OF POSSIBLE MODEL SOLUTIONS THEN IT WILL PROBABLY
BRING GOOD RAIN CHANCES (AND MAYBE EVEN POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN) TO FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY. CHANCES ARE BETTER THAN AVERAGE THAT AT THE VERY
LEAST RAIN OPPORTUNITIES WILL INCREASE FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
SOMEWHAT IN THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY TIME FRAME AS THE DISTURBANCE
PHASES WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM AND INDUCES INCREASED LIFT AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AS IT PASSES TO OUR NORTH. AT THIS POINT THERE IS
WAY TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO WARRANT ANY HWO INCLUSION FOR HEAVY RAIN
THREATS IN WESTERN ZONES...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND MODELS ARE TRYING TO ORGANIZE A COLD FRONT
IN THE PLAINS WHICH EVENTUALLY COULD BE HEADED THIS WAY.
CONCURRENTLY THE BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS MAY START
BREAKING DOWN A BIT ALTHOUGH HEAT AND DRYNESS MAY MAKE A RESURGENCE
FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE ANY FRONT GETS CLOSE. /BB/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 92 72 90 72 / 50 12 26 14
MERIDIAN 92 70 91 71 / 24 11 12 11
VICKSBURG 90 73 90 73 / 61 20 34 21
HATTIESBURG 90 72 90 73 / 47 12 26 13
NATCHEZ 90 73 88 73 / 68 21 39 22
GREENVILLE 91 73 90 74 / 51 33 20 26
GREENWOOD 90 72 91 73 / 35 20 14 21
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
410 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) PRIOR TO DAWN
THE REGION WAS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFF
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS WAS PROVIDING CONTINUED TRANSPORT OF
HIGH MOISTURE PWATS OF AROUND 2 INCHES GENERALLY WEST OF THE MS
RIVER...WHILE DRYER PWATS OF AROUND 1.5 WAS NOTED IN THE EAST UNDER
THE STRONGER INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. AREA RADARS WERE SHOWING
SOME SHOWERS OVER WESTERN LOUISIANA.
FOR TODAY THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH BEFORE LIFTING. SO HAVE PUT
PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG FOR THOSE AREAS. HIRES MODELS SHOWS VERY
LITTLE ACTIVITY FOR EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AS WE PUSH INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE ACTIVITY
WILL TRACK NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY. EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
TO BE ACROSS THE WEST AND THE LOWEST POPS IN THE EAST WHERE THE
RIDGE INFLUENCE WILL BE THE BEST. WILL BE LOOKING FOR SOME
INSTABILITY WITH LACK OF SHEAR FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH
THE IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THERE MAY BE A STRONG STORM OR
TWO DUE TO MESOSCALE PROCESSES FROM OTHER STORMS. SOME MORE PATCHY
FOG MAY DEVELOP IN PORTIONS OF THE EAST AND SOUTH FOR EARLY MONDAY.
MODELS SHOWS THAT THE MEAN RIDGE FROM THE EAST WILL HAVE A STRONGER
INFLUENCE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BE REFLECTED BY THE
LOWER POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE REGION. EXPECT THE
ACTIVITY TO DECREASE ACROSS THE WEST HALF DURING THE EVENING. SOME
ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAY LINGER OVER THE FAR WEST ON MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 AND LOWS IN
THE LOWER 70S. /17/
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...RAIN CHANCES IN GENERAL
SHOULD BE NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR MID TO LATE JUNE WITH
LEVELS OF HEAT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THERE ACTUALLY IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR EASTERN ZONES TO BE A LITTLE DRY THROUGH THIS
PERIOD..OWING MAINLY TO THE POSITION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH ENCROACHING
FROM THE EAST.
THE BIG WILD CARD FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST OVER OUR REGION WILL BE
THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE WESTERN GULF
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE NHC IS MONITORING FOR DEVELOPMENT VERY
CLOSELY AND MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A WEAK SYSTEM WHICH
IMPACTS THE SE TX COAST AROUND LATE TUESDAY...AND THEN PROGRESSES
NORTH TOWARD THE ARKLATEX AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS RIDGE. IF THIS SYSTEM DOES INDEED DEVELOP AND FOLLOWS THE
EASTERN ENVELOPE OF POSSIBLE MODEL SOLUTIONS THEN IT WILL PROBABLY
BRING GOOD RAIN CHANCES (AND MAYBE EVEN POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN) TO FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY. CHANCES ARE BETTER THAN AVERAGE THAT AT THE VERY
LEAST RAIN OPPORTUNITIES WILL INCREASE FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
SOMEWHAT IN THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY TIME FRAME AS THE DISTURBANCE
PHASES WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM AND INDUCES INCREASED LIFT AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AS IT PASSES TO OUR NORTH. AT THIS POINT THERE IS
WAY TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO WARRANT ANY HWO INCLUSION FOR HEAVY RAIN
THREATS IN WESTERN ZONES...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND MODELS ARE TRYING TO ORGANIZE A COLD FRONT
IN THE PLAINS WHICH EVENTUALLY COULD BE HEADED THIS WAY.
CONCURRENTLY THE BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS MAY START
BREAKING DOWN A BIT ALTHOUGH HEAT AND DRYNESS MAY MAKE A RESURGENCE
FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE ANY FRONT GETS CLOSE. /BB/
&&
.AVIATION...IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
BEFORE LIFTING AROUND 15Z SUNDAY. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM AGAIN TOMORROW. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS
FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT KGTR AND KMEI...WHERE SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT MAY
LIMIT STORM DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT THE STORMS TO DIMINISH DURING THE
EVENING./17/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 89 72 90 72 / 42 12 26 14
MERIDIAN 90 70 91 71 / 21 11 12 11
VICKSBURG 89 73 90 73 / 47 20 34 21
HATTIESBURG 89 72 90 73 / 35 12 26 13
NATCHEZ 87 73 88 73 / 48 21 39 22
GREENVILLE 90 73 90 74 / 42 33 20 26
GREENWOOD 90 72 91 73 / 34 20 14 21
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
17/BB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
717 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2015
.UPDATE...
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO WESTERN ID PRODUCING CONVECTION FROM THE
CENTRAL ID MTNS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MT...WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
OVER YNP. AIRMASS IS MUCH MORE STABLE IN OUR CWA PER COOL EASTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...BUT WE ARE MOIST ADVECTING UP THE HIGH
PLAINS WITH PWAT TONGUE NOW APPROACHING AN INCH IN OUR SE.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS SYNOPTIC SCALE
ASCENT INCREASES...AND AS A RESULT WE WILL SEE SHOWER/TSTM
ACTIVITY SPREAD INTO THE AREA AND PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
RECENT HRRR RUNS PEG OUR SOUTH AND EAST THE HARDEST W/ QPF AND
HAVE RAISED POPS A BIT IN OUR SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. HAVE SCALED BACK POPS IN THE EARLY EVENING AND TAKEN
OUT TS FOR OUR NE UNTIL AFTER 06Z BASED ON CURRENT STATE OF THE
AIRMASS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANYTHING SEVERE TONIGHT BUT LOCALLY
HEAVY SHOWERS A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE HIGH PWATS.
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR EAST.
EXPECT SUBSIDENCE AND RISING HEIGHTS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR OUR
WEST...BUT STILL DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS.
JKL
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...
DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TOWARDS
MONTANA AND WYOMING THIS EVENING WHILE THE AIRMASS IN PLACE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON IS UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE
AREA. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP A MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE
AND WHEN THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVES LATER TONIGHT IT WILL BE TRIGGERING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND EAST OF BILLINGS WHERE DEW POINTS WILL BE
HIGHEST. DO NOT EXPECT ACTIVITY TO BECOME SEVERE AS LIFT SHOULD
ALLOW LOTS OF CELL DEVELOPMENT AS OPPOSED TO DISCRETE CELLS.
TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A WARMER DAY AS EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WEAKEN
AND HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE. SHOULD BE A FEW SUN BREAKS BUT NOTHING
DRAMATIC TO CHANGE THE AIRMASS SO SHOULD ONLY SEE A RISE INTO THE
70S. DO NOT BELIEVE CONVECTION WILL BE TOO STRONG IF ANY DEVELOPS
BECAUSE TIMING OF THE OVERNIGHT WAVE WILL BE OVER EASTERN MONTANA
BY 12Z TUESDAY AND THE AIRMASS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT HAS A CHANCE
TO REALLY RECHARGE AND NO REAL STRONG TRIGGER AROUND.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS EVEN WARMER AS SOME PREFRONTAL WARMING AHEAD OF A
WEAK POLAR FRONT SHOULD ENHANCE MIXING. LOOKS PRETTY LIMITED FOR
CONVECTION DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS BUT THE ENVIRONMENT
IMPROVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT BACK DOORS INTO THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ZONES. STILL NOTHING EVIDENT FOR STRONG CONVECTION BUT
WILL HAVE TO WATCH SOUTHEAST MONTANA WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL BE
HIGHER. BORSUM
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT. FLAT RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS NEXT TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE PACFIC NORTHWEST. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND SHORT
WAVE ENERGY WILL ACT ON SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND MOISTURE TO
INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. MAIN ENERGY MOVES THROUGH LATER ON
FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE THE STORM CHANCES. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
BE THE BEST CHANCES FOR STRONGER STORMS. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP
LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY. HEIGHT RISES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL PRODUCE DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS. RIGHT NOW..GOOD
DOWNSLOPE FLOW ADVERTISED FOR MONDAY COULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK
TO NEAR 90. FRIEDERS
&&
.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS...OVER PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND
NORTHERN WYOMING...INCLUDING KLVM/KBIL/KSHR...CAN BE EXPECTED TO
LINGER TONIGHT WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL
ROLL INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO MAINLY THE FOOTHILLS
AND MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA...MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
KLVM TO KBIL TO KSHR. THESE SHOWERS WILL ROLL INTO SOUTHEAST
MONTANA VERY LATE TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS GOING MOST OF
THE NIGHT. TWH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 053/074 055/083 057/083 057/080 055/076 052/077 055/088
53/T 32/T 23/T 34/T 43/T 31/B 11/B
LVM 048/074 048/081 050/081 050/078 046/074 043/076 048/084
44/T 33/T 33/T 34/T 43/T 31/B 11/B
HDN 053/076 054/084 058/085 058/081 056/077 052/078 054/089
63/T 22/T 23/T 35/T 54/T 31/B 11/B
MLS 054/072 052/082 058/082 060/080 058/077 053/076 054/083
66/T 23/T 34/T 45/T 54/T 32/T 11/B
4BQ 053/072 052/081 058/084 059/079 055/076 051/074 052/082
77/T 23/T 34/T 46/T 65/T 31/B 11/B
BHK 051/067 049/078 054/077 058/077 055/073 051/072 050/077
87/T 22/T 34/T 55/T 55/T 52/T 21/B
SHR 051/071 050/079 053/084 055/078 053/073 048/075 049/083
64/T 33/T 33/T 25/T 54/T 41/B 11/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
849 AM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.UPDATE...
JUST A FEW UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. IT WAS STABLE IN
THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BASED ON RAP SOUNDINGS.
STABILITY WAS AIDED BY EXTENSIVE LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER SEEN ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. UPPER AIR PLOTS SHOWED A 700 MB COLD
FRONT DROPPING S THROUGH MT AT 12Z WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO
OVER N MT. THIS FRONT WAS FORECAST TO BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE S
ZONES TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR AND MODEL DATA HAD A SHORTWAVE MOVING E
THROUGH THE AREA. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE CROSSING THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATERS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SE MT. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL E FLOW WILL
PROHIBIT GOOD MIXING. POPS WERE IN GOOD SHAPE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
HIGHER POPS OVER THE E REFLECTING LATEST RADAR TRENDS THIS
MORNING...AND HIGHER POPS W SHOWING THE TERRAIN INFLUENCE THIS
AFTERNOON. STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A LOW CHANCE OF
THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO ADJUSTED THUNDER CHANCES A
LITTLE LOWER FOR THESE PERIODS. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN IT HAS
BEEN DUE TO THE POOR MIXING. ANY SUNNY BREAKS WILL LIKELY FILL IN
AGAIN WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND FRONT IN THE AREA. RAISED WIND SPEEDS
IN JUDITH GAP DUE TO PRESSURE RISES CAUSING GUSTY N WINDS. ARTHUR
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...
LOW TOP CONVECTION CONSISTING OF LIGHTNING AND OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL PERSISTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF MONTANA. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DID A
FAIRLY GOOD JOB OF PORTRAYING THIS IN PREVIOUS RUNS.
UPPER LEVEL JET CORE WILL PROGRESSIVELY MOVE THE UPPER LOW OVER
NORTHERN MANITOBA EASTWARD BY MONDAY. THIS WILL STABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE AND HELP BRING IN A COOLER AIR MASS. 850MB TEMP VALUES
WILL BE BETWEEN 7C AND 11C...WHICH TRANSLATES TO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S ACROSS THE REGION. DESPITE THE STABILIZING ATMOSPHERE...DECIDED
TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POP VALUES IN THE FORECAST...MAINLY IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.
MONDAY LOOKS DRY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING COMES INTO PLAY WITH
SOME AVAILABLE ENERGY...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. SPC IS
PAINTING A MARGINAL AREA THAT CORRESPONDS WELL WITH BOTH OF THESE
FEATURES. SINGER
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO BOUNCE
AROUND WITH SPECIFIC LOCATIONS AND BEST PERIODS FOR
PRECIPITATION...BUT OVERALL FAST NORTHERN STREAM PATTERN REMAINS
INTACT. STRONGER ENERGY MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY AND THEN A
MORE ORGANIZED PACIFIC TROF ON FRIDAY WILL BE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA BASED ON THE LATEST RUN. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED HIGHER WITH CAPE VALUES AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY ENHANCING STRONG THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...BUT
STILL NO DEFINITIVE SEVERE WEATHER PATTERN POPPING OUT OF THE
FORECAST. WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY
WITH AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POSSIBLE BUT NOT PROBABLE
FOR ANY SPECIFIC LOCATION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. NEXT WEEKEND COULD BE PRETTY WET IF
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HOLD TRUE. CHAMBERS
&&
.AVIATION...
COOLER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA SETTING UP A BIT OF AN OVER
RUNNING SCENARIO TODAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF IFR TO MVFR
CEILINGS THIS MORNING...LIFTING TO MVFR/VFR THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
SHOWERS WILL LINGER THIS MORNING...WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH PRECIPITATION.
CHAMBERS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 067 050/071 053/074 054/080 056/080 055/079 050/073
2/T 12/T 34/T 33/T 34/T 44/T 44/T
LVM 069 046/068 048/073 048/078 051/078 050/077 043/070
2/T 12/T 35/T 44/T 44/T 44/T 44/T
HDN 070 050/074 053/075 054/082 058/082 055/080 051/075
3/T 12/T 35/T 33/T 34/T 45/T 54/T
MLS 071 048/073 055/073 054/080 059/080 057/081 054/075
3/T 02/T 36/T 32/T 34/T 44/T 44/T
4BQ 068 049/071 053/073 053/079 058/080 056/080 052/074
3/T 12/T 35/T 32/T 33/T 35/T 55/T
BHK 070 045/072 052/067 051/076 055/077 056/077 051/073
3/T 02/T 36/T 32/T 34/T 43/T 44/T
SHR 066 047/070 050/072 050/078 054/081 054/078 048/071
2/T 33/T 35/T 44/T 43/T 35/T 54/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
958 AM PDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA TODAY
BEFORE A DRY...WESTERLY FLOW RETURNS FROM MONDAY ONWARD. THIS WILL
BRING HOT CONDITIONS TO THE AREA WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...VEGAS MORNING SOUNDING SHOWED PW VALUE LOWERED ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS PAST 24 HOURS WHILE WARMING ALOFT HAS CONTRIBUTED TO LESS
CAPE AND LOWER LI`S COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. ONE SMALL TOWER HAS
DEVELOPED ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE SPRING MTNS, LESS IMPRESSIVE
AT THIS HOUR COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
12Z NAM IS THE MOST UNSTABLE MODEL TODAY AND LINGERS MOISTURE EVEN
INTO TOMORROW NEAR THE UTAH BORDER WITH LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES.
15Z HRRR SHOWS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST AND
SOUTH OF LAS VEGAS WITH THE POTENTIAL OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS LAS
VEGAS BETWEEN 1 AND 3 PM. AWAY FROM LAS VEGAS, MODELS INSIST LINCOLN
AND MOHAVE COUNTIES WILL AGAIN BE ACTIVE. GUSTY WINDS AND QUICK
BURSTS OF HEAVY RAIN AGAIN THE CONCERN. MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO
THIS EVENINGS GRIDS OTHERWISE FORECAST FINE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...250 AM PDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY EVENING PROVED ACTIVE ONCE AGAIN AS LINGERING MOISTURE LEFT
BEHIND FROM THE REMAINS OF BLANCA CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE
SOUTHWEST AND INTERACT WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED ONCE AGAIN TODAY SO
ISOLATED STORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE. IVE INCREASED POPS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON GIVEN THE RELUCTANCE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO WANE OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS. GREATEST CHANCES ARE AGAIN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
BUT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ALWAYS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SPARK ACTIVITY
IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION....EARLY RUNS OF THE HRRR BREAK
OUT SOME CONVECTION EVEN IN SOME LOWER ELEVATIONS AFTER 18Z SO THE
POTENTIAL FOR ONE MORE DAY OF ACTIVITY IS CERTAINLY THERE.
ON MONDAY...STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING SOME DRIER AIR INTO
THE AREA AND SOME INCREASED STABILITY...SQUASHING ANY REMAINING
CONVECTIVE CHANCES WE HAVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
OTHERWISE...HOT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY WITH VEGAS REACHING INTO
THE 104-107 RANGE AND WARMER STILL ON MONDAY...BETWEEN 105 AND 110.
AREAS ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WILL BE CREEPING INTO THE 110S
AND DEATH VALLEY WILL BE APPROACHING 120 BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN THE FIRST PROLONGED PERIOD OF TRIPLE
DIGIT HEAT IN DESERT LOCALES THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE SOUTHWEST US. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN WILL KEEP THE RIDGE FAIRLY FLAT THROUGH THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK BEFORE THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS
PATTERN WILL YIELD BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS EACH AFTERNOON
THIS WEEK. THIS WILL AID IN MIXING...BUMPING AFTERNOON HIGHS UP A
FEW DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON...YIELDING THE HOTTEST DAYS OF 2015 SO
FAR THIS WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RUN ROUGHLY 6-9 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MID-JUNE...RANGING FROM 103-110 ACROSS MOST DESERT
LOCATIONS...WITH LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS SUCH AS DEATH VALLEY...AND
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY EASILY EXCEEDING 110 AND PERHAPS 115 AT
TIMES THROUGH LATE WEEK. DEATH VALLEY COULD REACH AND EXCEED 120 BY
MID TO LATE WEEK. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT MOST RECORDS WILL
REMAIN SAFE NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES IN THE LAS VEGAS
VALLEY WILL LIKELY APPROACH EXCESSIVE HEAT CRITERIA THRESHOLD OF 110
BY LATE WEEK AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
INDIVIDUALS AND ORGANIZATIONS HERE AND IN OTHER DESERT LOCATIONS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO PLAN AHEAD BY CHECKING AIR CONDITIONERS...VEHICLE
MAINTENANCE...ETC...AS WELL AS EXERCISING HEAT SAFETY DURING THIS
PROLONGED PERIOD. REMEMBER...HEAT IS THE LEADING WEATHER RELATED
KILLER IN OUR CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WITH EASTERLY
COMPONENTS EXPECTED IN THE MORNING HOURS TRANSISTIONING TO SOUTHERLY
AFTER 21Z IN THE 9-12KT RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 18KTS. SOME SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE AIRFIELD DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AND MAY RESULT IN GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS. DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR OUTFLOW RELATED WIND DIRECTION SHIFTS...CONFIDENCE IN
THE WIND FORECAST IS LOW AND WILL DEPEND ON WHERE CONVECTION FORMS.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA AGAIN POSSIBLE TODAY
ESPECIALLY EAST OF A KDAG...KTPH LINE. GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AND
CONVECTIVE TURBULENCE EXPECTED NEAR SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY.
OTHERWISE SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON OF 10-15KTS
ALTHOUGH VARIABLE NEAR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PIERCE
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...OUTLER
LONG TERM...PULLIN
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
250 AM PDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA TODAY
BEFORE A DRY...WESTERLY FLOW RETURNS FROM MONDAY ONWARD. THIS WILL
BRING HOT CONDITIONS TO THE AREA WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY EVENING PROVED ACTIVE ONCE AGAIN AS LINGERING MOISTURE LEFT
BEHIND FROM THE REMAINS OF BLANCA CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE
SOUTHWEST AND INTERACT WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED ONCE AGAIN TODAY SO
ISOLATED STORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE. IVE INCREASED POPS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON GIVEN THE RELUCTANCE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO WANE OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS. GREATEST CHANCES ARE AGAIN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
BUT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ALWAYS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SPARK ACTIVITY
IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION....EARLY RUNS OF THE HRRR BREAK
OUT SOME CONVECTION EVEN IN SOME LOWER ELEVATIONS AFTER 18Z SO THE
POTENTIAL FOR ONE MORE DAY OF ACTIVITY IS CERTAINLY THERE.
ON MONDAY...STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING SOME DRIER AIR INTO
THE AREA AND SOME INCREASED STABILITY...SQUASHING ANY REMAINING
CONVECTIVE CHANCES WE HAVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
OTHERWISE...HOT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY WITH VEGAS REACHING INTO
THE 104-107 RANGE AND WARMER STILL ON MONDAY...BETWEEN 105 AND 110.
AREAS ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WILL BE CREEPING INTO THE 110S
AND DEATH VALLEY WILL BE APPROACHING 120 BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN THE FIRST PROLONGED PERIOD OF TRIPLE
DIGIT HEAT IN DESERT LOCALES THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE SOUTHWEST US. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN WILL KEEP THE RIDGE FAIRLY FLAT THROUGH THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK BEFORE THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS
PATTERN WILL YIELD BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS EACH AFTERNOON
THIS WEEK. THIS WILL AID IN MIXING...BUMPING AFTERNOON HIGHS UP A
FEW DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON...YIELDING THE HOTTEST DAYS OF 2015 SO
FAR THIS WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RUN ROUGHLY 6-9 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MID-JUNE...RANGING FROM 103-110 ACROSS MOST DESERT
LOCATIONS...WITH LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS SUCH AS DEATH VALLEY...AND
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY EASILY EXCEEDING 110 AND PERHAPS 115 AT
TIMES THROUGH LATE WEEK. DEATH VALLEY COULD REACH AND EXCEED 120 BY
MID TO LATE WEEK. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT MOST RECORDS WILL
REMAIN SAFE NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES IN THE LAS VEGAS
VALLEY WILL LIKELY APPROACH EXCESSIVE HEAT CRITERIA THRESHOLD OF 110
BY LATE WEEK AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
INDIVIDUALS AND ORGANIZATIONS HERE AND IN OTHER DESERT LOCATIONS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO PLAN AHEAD BY CHECKING AIR CONDITIONERS...VEHICLE
MAINTENANCE...ETC...AS WELL AS EXERCISING HEAT SAFETY DURING THIS
PROLONGED PERIOD. REMEMBER...HEAT IS THE LEADING WEATHER RELATED
KILLER IN OUR CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WITH EASTERLY
COMPONENTS EXPECTED IN THE MORNING HOURS TRANSISTIONING TO SOUTHERLY
AFTER 21Z IN THE 9-12KT RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 18KTS. SOME SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE AIRFIELD DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AND MAY RESULT IN GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS. DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR OUTFLOW RELATED WIND DIRECTION SHIFTS...CONFIDENCE IN
THE WIND FORECAST IS LOW AND WILL DEPEND ON WHERE CONVECTION FORMS.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA AGAIN POSSIBLE TODAY
ESPECIALLY EAST OF A KDAG...KTPH LINE. GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AND
CONVECTIVE TURBULENCE EXPECTED NEAR SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY.
OTHERWISE SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON OF 10-15KTS
ALTHOUGH VARIABLE NEAR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...OUTLER
LONG TERM...PULLIN
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
322 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH MID WEEK.
THE WORST OF THE HEAT WAVE IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOMEWHAT
LOWER TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO WEAKEN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS
WEEK WILL BE ISOLATED.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY... A WEAK SURFACE HIGH OVER GEORGIA IS A
REFLECTION OF A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. THIS IS NOT A "BERMUDA HIGH" PATTERN AS THE UPPER
RIDGE IS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND A TROUGH ACTUALLY EXISTS
AT THE LONGITUDE OF BERMUDA. THE 850 MB HIGH...ALSO ACROSS
GEORGIA...IS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE AREA PRODUCING A
LIGHT NW WIND ALOFT.
THE SEABREEZE HAS TURNED WIND DIRECTIONS AT THE BEACHES
ONSHORE...BUT WITH ALL THE NW WIND ALOFT THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY IS
HAVING LIMITED SUCCESS MAKING SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS INLAND. ONCE THIS
CIRCULATION DIES AWAY BY LATE THIS EVENING LOOK FOR LIGHT WESTERLY
WINDS TO PREDOMINATE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. UNLESS AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR T-STORM CAN FIRE UP IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS CHANCES
APPEAR QUITE LOW OVERNIGHT.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM. MOS GUIDANCE HAS RACKED UP
CONSISTENT COOL ERRORS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS: GFS MOS IS
AVERAGING 1.4 DEGREES TOO COOL...WHILE THE NAM MOS HAS AVERAGED 2.6
DEGREES TOO COOL. I HAVE CALCULATED STATION-SPECIFIC BIASES AND HAVE
USED THIS TO FORMULATE TONIGHT`S LOW TEMP FORECAST: 74-78...WARMEST
AT THE BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH
OFF THE EAST COAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES UNDER THE RIDGE BUT EACH AFTERNOON THERE HAS
BEEN A SMALL WINDOW OF TIME WHERE MEAGER CONVECTION HAS BEEN ABLE
TO DEVELOP. THIS IS LIKELY DOWN TO THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN. DESPITE THE RIDGING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE CLIMO FOR MID JUNE...APPROACHING 2
INCHES AT TIMES.
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL
FEATURES...SHORTWAVES TOPPING THE 5H RIDGE ARE A BIT TOO FAR NORTH
TO HAVE ANY IMPACT LOCALLY. HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND HEATING WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
GENERATE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON AROUND PEAK
HEATING. SEA BREEZE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE A LITTLE MORE PROGRESS
INLAND MON AND TUE THAN IT HAS IN THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE NORTHWEST
FLOW AT 900MB THAT HAD BEEN KEEPING IT PINNED AT THE COAST WILL
HAVE A MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST COMPONENT AND BE A BIT WEAKER. TUE
AFTERNOON APPEARS A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE...ESPECIALLY INLAND WITH
A STRONGER PIEDMONT TROUGH BEING FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE CLIMO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GFS/NAM/ECMWF ALL SHOW A LARGE AREA OF 850 TEMPS AROUND
21C WITH TRANSIENT 22C BULLSEYES MON/TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS
SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS. ALL OF THIS
IS IN AN AIRMASS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. HEAT
INDEX VALUES BOTH MON AND TUE SHOULD END UP SOLIDLY IN THE HEAT
ADVISORY RANGE WITH POTENTIAL FOR THE HEAT INDEX TO REACH
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CRITERIA (110F) ON TUE. AS A RESULT HAVE
ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR MON AFTERNOON. ALSO OF NOTE WILL BE
THE EXTREMELY WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDING AND
FOUS DATA THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOWS ABOVE 80F IN AT LEAST A FEW
AREAS MON AND TUE NIGHTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...SUBTLE HEIGHT FALLS INTO THE WEEKEND SEEMS TO
BE THE STORY OF THE EXTENDED ALONG WITH WHAT WILL BE THE SLIGHT
RELAXATION OF THE HEAT WAVE. IN BOTH THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND
ECMWF...WHICH CONSTITUTE A BIG PORTION OF WHAT WPC IS PREFERRING
FOR THE EXTENDED...HEIGHTS FALL FROM ABOUT 593DM TO 590DM...NOT
THE DEEPEST OF FALLS/TROUGHS BUT WE WILL TAKE WHAT WE CAN GET.
THIS SUBTLE CHANGE HOWEVER MAKES THERMAL PROFILES MORE CONDUCIVE
TO CONVECTION AS 500-700MB LAPSE RATES INCREASE FROM ABOUT 5.9 TO
6.4 DEGREES C BY SATURDAY. ALSO LIFTED INDICES INCREASE FROM ABOUT
MINUS 6 DEGREES C WEDNESDAY TO MINUS 9 SATURDAY. THERE WILL ALSO
BE MORE CATALYST IN THE AREA VIA BOUNDARIES FROM RESIDUAL
CONVECTION AND THE STANDARD PIEDMONT TROUGH/SEA BREEZE FORCING.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH STILL WELL ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY...DECREASES A CATEGORY OR SO FROM TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY
AND COOLS ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO BY THE WEEKEND. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS TREND.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...THE HRRR LOOKS TO BE A BIT OVERDONE AGAIN TODAY WITH
ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED. THE BEST CHANCE WILL PROBABLY BE
OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION...HOWEVER THE COAST HAS THE
BEST PRECIPITABLE WATER...SO THAT COULD BE ANOTHER FOCUS. CONVECTION
WILL END IN THE EVENING WITH LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT WITH
NO FOG EXPECTED. LIGHT MAINLY SOUTHWEST FLOW ON MONDAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH
MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER GEORGIA IS THE
SURFACE REFLECTION OF A MUCH STRONGER HIGH IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. NEITHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE TONIGHT WITH A STAGNANT
WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUING. SEABREEZE WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AROUND
10 KNOTS CURRENTLY WILL GRADUALLY VEER WESTERLY OVERNIGHT WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF AN INCREASE IN SPEED TO NEAR 15 KNOTS FOR SEVERAL
HOURS AFTER SUNSET. SEAS CURRENTLY 2 FEET MAY BUILD TOWARD 3 FEET
FOR A TIME OUT BEYOND 10 MILES FROM SHORE. SHOWER/T-STORM
POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...ELONGATED BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN WESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS...WITH ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST DUE TO
DAILY SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. WINDS WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KT
RANGE MON AND TUE...THOUGH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES ARE POSSIBLE TUE
AS PIEDMONT TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND GRADIENT BECOMES PINCHED. SEAS
2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...STANDARD SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MAIN DRIVERS OF WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE THE BERMUDA HIGH AND THE STRENGTH OF THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH INLAND. THE LATTER FEATURE LOOKS A LITTLE MORE ENHANCED
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HERE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
INCREASES FROM 10-15 KNOTS TO THE LOWER END OF THE 15-20 RANGE.
OTHERWISE SPEEDS WILL SEE THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE. THE INCREASE IN
WIND SPEEDS WILL BUILD SEAS SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY TO A 2-4 FOOT
RANGE...UP FROM 2-3 FEET.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...
ALTHOUGH THIS MAY NOT BE RECORD-BREAKING HEAT IT`S STILL THE FIRST
TIME IN ALMOST 3 YEARS WE`VE HAD THESE KIND OF TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST.
97 98 99 100 101 102 103
WILMINGTON 6/20/14 7/27/12 7/27/12 7/27/12 7/27/12 6/30/12 6/30/12
MYRTLE BEACH 7/24/12 7/24/12 7/28/05 7/27/05 7/27/05 8/17/54 8/17/54
FLORENCE 6/14/15 9/02/14 9/02/14 7/09/14 7/26/12 7/09/12 7/01/12
THIS IS ALSO AVAILABLE GRAPHICALLY ON OUR FACEBOOK & TWITTER PAGES
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR SCZ017-023-024-
032-033-039-053>056.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR NCZ087-096-099-
105>110.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...TRA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
309 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH MID WEEK.
THE WORST OF THE HEAT WAVE IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOMEWHAT
LOWER TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO WEAKEN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS
WEEK WILL BE ISOLATED.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY... A WEAK SURFACE HIGH OVER GEORGIA IS A
REFLECTION OF A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. THIS IS NOT A "BERMUDA HIGH" PATTERN AS THE UPPER
RIDGE IS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND A TROUGH ACTUALLY EXISTS
AT THE LONGITUDE OF BERMUDA. THE 850 MB HIGH...ALSO ACROSS
GEORGIA...IS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE AREA PRODUCING A
LIGHT NW WIND ALOFT.
THE SEABREEZE HAS TURNED WIND DIRECTIONS AT THE BEACHES
ONSHORE...BUT WITH ALL THE NW WIND ALOFT THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY IS
HAVING LIMITED SUCCESS MAKING SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS INLAND. ONCE THIS
CIRCULATION DIES AWAY BY LATE THIS EVENING LOOK FOR LIGHT WESTERLY
WINDS TO PREDOMINATE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. UNLESS AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR T-STORM CAN FIRE UP IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS CHANCES
APPEAR QUITE LOW OVERNIGHT.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM. MOS GUIDANCE HAS RACKED UP
CONSISTENT COOL ERRORS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS: GFS MOS IS
AVERAGING 1.4 DEGREES TOO COOL...WHILE THE NAM MOS HAS AVERAGED 2.6
DEGREES TOO COOL. I HAVE CALCULATED STATION-SPECIFIC BIASES AND HAVE
USED THIS TO FORMULATE TONIGHT`S LOW TEMP FORECAST: 74-78...WARMEST
AT THE BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH
OFF THE EAST COAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES UNDER THE RIDGE BUT EACH AFTERNOON THERE HAS
BEEN A SMALL WINDOW OF TIME WHERE MEAGER CONVECTION HAS BEEN ABLE
TO DEVELOP. THIS IS LIKELY DOWN TO THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN. DESPITE THE RIDGING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE CLIMO FOR MID JUNE...APPROACHING 2
INCHES AT TIMES.
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL
FEATURES...SHORTWAVES TOPPING THE 5H RIDGE ARE A BIT TOO FAR NORTH
TO HAVE ANY IMPACT LOCALLY. HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND HEATING WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
GENERATE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON AROUND PEAK
HEATING. SEA BREEZE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE A LITTLE MORE PROGRESS
INLAND MON AND TUE THAN IT HAS IN THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE NORTHWEST
FLOW AT 900MB THAT HAD BEEN KEEPING IT PINNED AT THE COAST WILL
HAVE A MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST COMPONENT AND BE A BIT WEAKER. TUE
AFTERNOON APPEARS A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE...ESPECIALLY INLAND WITH
A STRONGER PIEDMONT TROUGH BEING FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE CLIMO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GFS/NAM/ECMWF ALL SHOW A LARGE AREA OF 850 TEMPS AROUND
21C WITH TRANSIENT 22C BULLSEYES MON/TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS
SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS. ALL OF THIS
IS IN AN AIRMASS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. HEAT
INDEX VALUES BOTH MON AND TUE SHOULD END UP SOLIDLY IN THE HEAT
ADVISORY RANGE WITH POTENTIAL FOR THE HEAT INDEX TO REACH
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CRITERIA (110F) ON TUE. ALSO OF NOTE WILL
BE THE EXTREMELY WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDING
AND FOUS DATA THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOWS ABOVE 80F IN AT LEAST A
FEW AREAS MON AND TUE NIGHTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...SUBTLE HEIGHT FALLS INTO THE WEEKEND SEEMS TO
BE THE STORY OF THE EXTENDED ALONG WITH WHAT WILL BE THE SLIGHT
RELAXATION OF THE HEAT WAVE. IN BOTH THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND
ECMWF...WHICH CONSTITUTE A BIG PORTION OF WHAT WPC IS PREFERRING
FOR THE EXTENDED...HEIGHTS FALL FROM ABOUT 593DM TO 590DM...NOT
THE DEEPEST OF FALLS/TROUGHS BUT WE WILL TAKE WHAT WE CAN GET.
THIS SUBTLE CHANGE HOWEVER MAKES THERMAL PROFILES MORE CONDUCIVE
TO CONVECTION AS 500-700MB LAPSE RATES INCREASE FROM ABOUT 5.9 TO
6.4 DEGREES C BY SATURDAY. ALSO LIFTED INDICES INCREASE FROM ABOUT
MINUS 6 DEGREES C WEDNESDAY TO MINUS 9 SATURDAY. THERE WILL ALSO
BE MORE CATALYST IN THE AREA VIA BOUNDARIES FROM RESIDUAL
CONVECTION AND THE STANDARD PIEDMONT TROUGH/SEA BREEZE FORCING.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH STILL WELL ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY...DECREASES A CATEGORY OR SO FROM TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY
AND COOLS ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO BY THE WEEKEND. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS TREND.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...THE HRRR LOOKS TO BE A BIT OVERDONE AGAIN TODAY WITH
ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED. THE BEST CHANCE WILL PROBABLY BE
OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION...HOWEVER THE COAST HAS THE
BEST PRECIPITABLE WATER...SO THAT COULD BE ANOTHER FOCUS. CONVECTION
WILL END IN THE EVENING WITH LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT WITH
NO FOG EXPECTED. LIGHT MAINLY SOUTHWEST FLOW ON MONDAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH
MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER GEORGIA IS THE
SURFACE REFLECTION OF A MUCH STRONGER HIGH IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. NEITHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE TONIGHT WITH A STAGNANT
WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUING. SEABREEZE WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AROUND
10 KNOTS CURRENTLY WILL GRADUALLY VEER WESTERLY OVERNIGHT WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF AN INCREASE IN SPEED TO NEAR 15 KNOTS FOR SEVERAL
HOURS AFTER SUNSET. SEAS CURRENTLY 2 FEET MAY BUILD TOWARD 3 FEET
FOR A TIME OUT BEYOND 10 MILES FROM SHORE. SHOWER/T-STORM
POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...ELONGATED BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN WESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS...WITH ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST DUE TO
DAILY SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. WINDS WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KT
RANGE MON AND TUE...THOUGH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES ARE POSSIBLE TUE
AS PIEDMONT TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND GRADIENT BECOMES PINCHED. SEAS
2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...STANDARD SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MAIN DRIVERS OF WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE THE BERMUDA HIGH AND THE STRENGTH OF THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH INLAND. THE LATTER FEATURE LOOKS A LITTLE MORE ENHANCED
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HERE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
INCREASES FROM 10-15 KNOTS TO THE LOWER END OF THE 15-20 RANGE.
OTHERWISE SPEEDS WILL SEE THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE. THE INCREASE IN
WIND SPEEDS WILL BUILD SEAS SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY TO A 2-4 FOOT
RANGE...UP FROM 2-3 FEET.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...
ALTHOUGH THIS MAY NOT BE RECORD-BREAKING HEAT IT`S STILL THE FIRST
TIME IN ALMOST 3 YEARS WE`VE HAD THESE KIND OF TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST.
97 98 99 100 101 102 103
WILMINGTON 6/20/14 7/27/12 7/27/12 7/27/12 7/27/12 6/30/12 6/30/12
MYRTLE BEACH 7/24/12 7/24/12 7/28/05 7/27/05 7/27/05 8/17/54 8/17/54
FLORENCE 6/14/15 9/02/14 9/02/14 7/09/14 7/26/12 7/09/12 7/01/12
THIS IS ALSO AVAILABLE GRAPHICALLY ON OUR FACEBOOK & TWITTER PAGES
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DL
CLIMATE...TRA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1236 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH MID WEEK.
THE WORST OF THE HEAT WAVE IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOMEWHAT
LOWER TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO WEAKEN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS
WEEK WILL BE ISOLATED.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM SUNDAY...VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO FORECAST HIGHS BASED ON
NOONTIME OBSERVATIONS. FIRST CUMULUS HAVE POPPED UP WITHIN THE PAST
30 MINUTES MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS AND
SHOULD BUILD DOWN TO THE COAST OVER THE NEXT HOUR. THE SEABREEZE
CIRCULATION IS JUST BEGINNING WITH SEVERAL MESONET SITES ON THE
BEACHES NOW REPORTING ONSHORE WIND DIRECTIONS. DISCUSSION FROM 945
AM FOLLOWS...
THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO FORECAST CLEAR
SKIES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS IT`S CLEAR AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT
WAY UNTIL WE REACH THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE BETWEEN NOON AND ABOUT
130 PM. THE RUC AND HRRR MODELS ARE SHOWING A HEALTHIER SEABREEZE
CIRCULATION DEVELOPING THAT WHAT LAST NIGHT`S SYNOPTIC MODELS WERE
SHOWING...BUT GIVEN CONTINUED OFFSHORE WINDS AT 925/850 MB I AM
INCLINED NOT TO SHOW A GREAT DEAL OF INLAND MOVEMENT OF THE
SEABREEZE FRONT. BY 5 PM THE BOUNDARY WILL PROBABLY BE 15-20 MILES
INLAND ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA AND 12-15 MILES INLAND ACROSS NE
SOUTH CAROLINA...WITH HUMID SOUTH WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY NOT
PROVIDING MUCH IMPROVEMENT TO HEAT INDEX VALUES. THE GFS MOS
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN MUCH BETTER THAN THAN NAM OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS BUT EVEN IT HAS RUN A LITTLE COOL AT MOS SITES. NO CHANGES HAVE
BEEN MADE TO FORECAST HIGHS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...DANGEROUS AND RECORD BREAKING HEAT DURING
THIS PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH STRADDLING
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH OVER SOUTHERN NC...MUCH OF SC...AND
ACROSS EASTERN GEORGIA...DURING THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SFC
RIDGING FROM THE CENTER OF THE OFFSHORE BERMUDA HIGH WILL EXTEND
WSW INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. AT THE SAME TIME...THE SFC PIEDMONT
TROF WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD. THIS SFC PRESSURE PATTERN WILL RESULT WITH SFC SW-NW
WINDS ACROSS THE ILM CWA...AND SOUTHERLY WINDS CLOSER TO THE
COAST EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING DUE TO THE DAILY SEA BREEZE.
AS FOR MAX AND MIN TEMPS...HAVE STAYED CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY
HOTTER GFS MOS MODEL GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY WITH DAILY MAX TEMPS.
A GOOD CHUNK OF THE FA WILL BE LOOKING AT POSSIBLE 100+ DEGREE
TEMPERATURE READINGS EACH DAY...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST AND THE EFFECTS FROM THE INLAND PROGRESSING AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE. EVEN THOUGH THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL NOT EXPERIENCE
THE AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS THAT INLAND AREAS DO...BUT THEY WILL
HOWEVER EXPERIENCE HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGHER
RHS. WITH THIS SAID...THE AREA INCLUDING THE IMMEDIATE
COAST...WILL BE LOOKING AT PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 104 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE. THIS PLACES
THE FA WITHIN HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND LIKELY ONE WILL BE
ISSUED FOR THIS TIME PERIOD LATER TODAY. FOR THE TIME BEING...A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE UPCOMING DANGEROUS HEAT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM WITH 75-80 DEGREE READINGS
BOTH NIGHTS...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
WHERE LOCAL SSTS ARE NOW IN THE LOWER 80S.
AS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH DAY...HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR EACH AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. THIS TO OCCUR WITH WEAK UVVS ALONG
THE INLAND PROGRESSING SEA BREEZE. THE CONVECTION WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED AND WEAK WITH VERY LITTLE HELP OR SUPPORT FROM ALOFT DUE TO
THE LACK OF ANY S/W TROFS/VORTS PASSING OVERHEAD.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...THE EXTENDED PROGS INDICATE THE UPPER HIGH
AND ASSOCIATED RIDGING ACROSS THE FA WEDNESDAY...IS EXPECTED TO
SLIDE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST LATE THU THRU SATURDAY. THIS A RESULT
OF FORCING FROM A MODEST BUT POTENT UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL S/W TROF
UPSTREAM...THAT PUSHES FROM THE LOWER PLAINS STATES TO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS COME SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...WEDNESDAY AND
POSSIBLY THU WILL BE THE HOTTEST OF THE 4 DAYS IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. WITH RELATIVELY NO CHANGE IN THE MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...THE COMBINATION OF RH WITH AFTN TEMPS WED AND THU
WILL YIELD HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 100-104...WITH A FEW 105
READINGS ESPECIALLY ON WED. OVERALL...WILL SEE DAILY MAXES LOWER
BY A DEGREE OR 2 DURING EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY...WITH THE GFS MOS
GUIDANCE ILLUSTRATING THIS WELL.
WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH PROGRESSING EAST OF THE ILM
CWA DURING THIS PERIOD...UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL S/W TROFS/VORTS WILL
HAVE A CHANCE TO PUSH ACROSS THE FA. THE TIMING OF THIS OCCURRENCE
DURING THE DAY...IE. INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE SEA BREEZE...WILL
BE CRUCIAL IN DETERMINING THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. CURRENTLY
15-20 POPS WED AND THU...THAT INCREASE TO 30-40 POPS FRI INTO
SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...THE HRRR LOOKS TO BE A BIT OVERDONE AGAIN TODAY WITH
ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED. THE BEST CHANCE WILL PROBABLY BE
OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION...HOWEVER THE COAST HAS THE
BEST PRECIPITABLE WATER...SO THAT COULD BE ANOTHER FOCUS. CONVECTION
WILL END IN THE EVENING WITH LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT WITH
NO FOG EXPECTED. LIGHT MAINLY SOUTHWEST FLOW ON MONDAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH
MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM SUNDAY...THE FIRST FEW MESONET STATIONS ON THE BEACHES
ARE REPORTING ONSHORE WINDS AS TODAY`S SEABREEZE SPRINGS INTO
ACTION. MARINE FORECAST WILL SHOW NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHERLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES. DISCUSSION
FROM 945 AM FOLLOWS...
OFFSHORE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS MORNING. AS INLAND TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE UPPER 90S THIS
SHOULD INDUCE A SEABREEZE CIRCULATION TO FORM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
NEARSHORE WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY WITH SPEEDS STILL AROUND 10
KNOTS.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...SFC RIDGING WILL EXTEND WESTWARD FROM THE
CENTER OF THE BERMUDA HIGH TO ACROSS FLORIDA. THIS SFC PRESSURE
POSITIONING WILL RESULT IN WESTERLY WINDS TO START THE DAY THAT
BACK TO THE SSW-SW EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY CLOSER
TO THE COAST DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN RELAXED FOR MONDAY WITH 10 KT WIND SPEEDS COMMON...EXCEPT
NEAR SHORE WHERE THE SEA-BREEZE COULD PUSH SPEEDS TO 10-15 KT. THE
SFC PG IS PROGGED TO TIGHTEN-SOME EARLY TUE THRU TUE NIGHT. THIS
COULD RESULT IN A SOLID 15 KT WIND SPEED. AS FOR SIGNIFICANT
SEAS...THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE LOOKING AT 2 TO OCCASIONALLY 3
FT...WITH 4 TO 5 SECOND WIND DRIVEN WAVES AND A 1 FOOT ESE 11
SECOND PERIOD GROUND SWELL DUKING IT OUT TO WHICH DOMINATES.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...DURING THIS PERIOD...THE AREA WATERS WILL
LIE BETWEEN THE NE-SW ORIENTED SFC TROF OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...AND THE SFC RIDGING THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
BERMUDA HIGH WELL OFFSHORE FROM THE SE U.S....ACROSS THE FLORIDA
COAST. THIS WILL PREDOMINATELY PRODUCE A SW WIND DIRECTION THRU
THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE NOT AS PRONOUNCED...COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS...WITH THE PROGGED TIGHTENED SFC PG ACROSS THE AREA
WATERS WEDNESDAY THRU THURSDAY. WILL NOT ENTIRELY BUY THIS
OUTPUT...BUT WILL MENTION A SOLID 10-15 KT WIND SPEED THRU THE
PERIOD...POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 15-20 KT LATE THU.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FEET...POSSIBLY UP TO 4 FT LATER
THU. WIND DRIVEN WAVES AT 4 TO 5 SECOND PERIODS WILL DOMINATE THE
SIGNIFICANT SEAS. A LESS THAN 1 FOOT...11 SECOND PERIOD...ESE
GROUND SWELL TO REMAIN IDENTIFIABLE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 945 AM SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY NOT BE RECORD-BREAKING
HEAT IT`S STILL THE FIRST TIME IN ALMOST 3 YEARS WE`VE HAD THESE
KIND OF TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST.
...MOST RECENT HOT TEMPERATURE OCCURRENCES...
97 98 99 100 101 102 103
WILMINGTON 6/20/14 7/27/12 7/27/12 7/27/12 7/27/12 6/30/12 6/30/12
MYRTLE BEACH 7/24/12 7/24/12 7/28/05 7/27/05 7/27/05 8/17/54 8/17/54
FLORENCE 6/14/15 9/02/14 9/02/14 7/09/14 7/26/12 7/09/12 7/01/12
FLORENCE INFORMATION UPDATED FOR YESTERDAY`S HIGH OF 97 DEGREES.
THIS INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE GRAPHICALLY ON OUR FACEBOOK &
TWITTER PAGES.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...DL
CLIMATE...TRA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
947 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH MID WEEK.
THE WORST OF THE HEAT WAVE IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOMEWHAT
LOWER TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO WEAKEN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS
WEEK WILL BE ISOLATED.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM SUNDAY...THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
WAS TO FORECAST CLEAR SKIES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS IT`S CLEAR AND
SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY UNTIL WE REACH THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE
BETWEEN NOON AND ABOUT 130 PM. THE RUC AND HRRR MODELS ARE SHOWING A
HEALTHIER SEABREEZE CIRCULATION DEVELOPING THAT WHAT LAST NIGHT`S
SYNOPTIC MODELS WERE SHOWING...BUT GIVEN CONTINUED OFFSHORE WINDS AT
925/850 MB I AM INCLINED NOT TO SHOW A GREAT DEAL OF INLAND MOVEMENT
OF THE SEABREEZE FRONT. BY 5 PM THE BOUNDARY WILL PROBABLY BE 15-20
MILES INLAND ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA AND 12-15 MILES INLAND ACROSS
NE SOUTH CAROLINA...WITH HUMID SOUTH WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY NOT
PROVIDING MUCH IMPROVEMENT TO HEAT INDEX VALUES. THE GFS MOS
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN MUCH BETTER THAN THAN NAM OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS BUT EVEN IT HAS RUN A LITTLE COOL AT MOS SITES. NO CHANGES HAVE
BEEN MADE TO FORECAST HIGHS. DISCUSSION FROM 600 AM FOLLOWS...
THE HEAT WILL BE ON TODAY. WE ARE NOT QUITE FORECASTING HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA ALTHOUGH PROSPECTS FOR MEETING CRITERIA DO
INCREASE IN THE COMING DAYS. FOR TODAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW INLAND SPOTS
MAY EXPERIENCE HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 DEG FOR AN HOUR OR
SO...MIXING IS EXPECTED TO BRING DEWPOINTS DOWN JUST ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE A HEAT ADVISORY. HOWEVER...ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA...WE DO EXPECT MANY PLACES WILL REACH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 102
TO 104 DEG FOR A FEW HOURS TODAY. WE WILL REISSUE AN SPS TO ADDRESS
THE HEAT.
TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL RISE TO ABOUT 20 DEG C TODAY. THIS IS A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN ON SAT. ON SAT...MANY INLAND THERMOMETERS REGISTERED
UPPER 90S AND A FEW SPOTS...LIKE LBT...REACHED 100 DEG. LOCATIONS
NEARER TO THE COAST WERE MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 90S. THEREFORE...ALL
ELSE BEING EQUAL...MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE AS WARM IF NOT A DEGREE OR
TWO WARMER TODAY. WE ARE FORECASTING WIDESPREAD HIGHS VERY NEAR THE
CENTURY MARK INLAND. THE MORE COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE MID
AND UPPER 90S. THE SEABREEZE SHOULD MAKE SLIGHTLY BETTER PROGRESS
INLAND AS THE WESTERLY WINDS IN THE LOWEST 5 KFT WILL BE LIGHT
TODAY. HOWEVER...THIS WILL ONLY SERVE TO KEEP COASTAL DEWPOINTS
ELEVATED OR INCREASE THEM SLIGHTLY WHICH WILL ONLY ADD TO THE
DISCOMFORT LEVEL.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IN CONCERT WITH A VERY WARM RIDGE
ALOFT WILL BRING A BONA FIDE HEAT WAVE TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
THIS WEEK. RECORD HIGHS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO REACH OR EXCEED
TODAY...
THE RECORD HIGH AT FLO IS 102 SET IN 1958 AND THE FORECAST HIGH FOR
TODAY IS 99.
THE RECORD HIGH AT ILM IS 99 SET IN 1958 AND THE FORECAST HIGH FOR
TODAY IS 97.
THE RECORD HIGH AT CRE IS 98 SET IN 2010 AND THE FORECAST HIGH FOR
TODAY IS 93.
TEMPS AFTER SUNSET WILL BE VERY WARM WITH MANY PLACES STILL NEAR 80
DEG AS LATE AS THE MIDNIGHT HOUR. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE MID AND
UPPER 70S.
AS FAR AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONCERNED. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE SUBSIDENCE TODAY WHICH WOULD BE A DETRIMENT TO
DEVELOPING CONVECTION. HOWEVER...VERY STRONG HEATING WILL INCREASE
INSTABILITY WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND
2000 J/KG. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN NEAR 2 INCHES.
ALTHOUGH TEMPS ARE WARM ALOFT...THEY ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE WARM
ENOUGH TO SERVE AS A CAPPING INVERSION. BOUNDARIES WHICH MAY SERVE
TO FOCUS THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCLUDE THE SEABREEZE AND THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH. ALSO...A VERY WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST DURING THE TIME OF PEAK
HEATING. TAKING THE HRRR FORECAST INTO ACCOUNT...WILL OPT TO
INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE. ALTHOUGH THIS HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...IT DOES SHOW THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ACROSS OUR INLAND ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...DANGEROUS AND RECORD BREAKING HEAT DURING
THIS PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH STRADDLING
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH OVER SOUTHERN NC...MUCH OF SC...AND
ACROSS EASTERN GEORGIA...DURING THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SFC
RIDGING FROM THE CENTER OF THE OFFSHORE BERMUDA HIGH WILL EXTEND
WSW INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. AT THE SAME TIME...THE SFC PIEDMONT
TROF WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD. THIS SFC PRESSURE PATTERN WILL RESULT WITH SFC SW-NW
WINDS ACROSS THE ILM CWA...AND SOUTHERLY WINDS CLOSER TO THE
COAST EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING DUE TO THE DAILY SEA BREEZE.
AS FOR MAX AND MIN TEMPS...HAVE STAYED CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY
HOTTER GFS MOS MODEL GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY WITH DAILY MAX TEMPS.
A GOOD CHUNK OF THE FA WILL BE LOOKING AT POSSIBLE 100+ DEGREE
TEMPERATURE READINGS EACH DAY...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST AND THE EFFECTS FROM THE INLAND PROGRESSING AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE. EVEN THOUGH THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL NOT EXPERIENCE
THE AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS THAT INLAND AREAS DO...BUT THEY WILL
HOWEVER EXPERIENCE HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGHER
RHS. WITH THIS SAID...THE AREA INCLUDING THE IMMEDIATE
COAST...WILL BE LOOKING AT PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 104 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE. THIS PLACES
THE FA WITHIN HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND LIKELY ONE WILL BE
ISSUED FOR THIS TIME PERIOD LATER TODAY. FOR THE TIME BEING...A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE UPCOMING DANGEROUS HEAT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM WITH 75-80 DEGREE READINGS
BOTH NIGHTS...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
WHERE LOCAL SSTS ARE NOW IN THE LOWER 80S.
AS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH DAY...HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR EACH AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. THIS TO OCCUR WITH WEAK UVVS ALONG
THE INLAND PROGRESSING SEA BREEZE. THE CONVECTION WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED AND WEAK WITH VERY LITTLE HELP OR SUPPORT FROM ALOFT DUE TO
THE LACK OF ANY S/W TROFS/VORTS PASSING OVERHEAD.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...THE EXTENDED PROGS INDICATE THE UPPER HIGH
AND ASSOCIATED RIDGING ACROSS THE FA WEDNESDAY...IS EXPECTED TO
SLIDE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST LATE THU THRU SATURDAY. THIS A RESULT
OF FORCING FROM A MODEST BUT POTENT UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL S/W TROF
UPSTREAM...THAT PUSHES FROM THE LOWER PLAINS STATES TO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS COME SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...WEDNESDAY AND
POSSIBLY THU WILL BE THE HOTTEST OF THE 4 DAYS IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. WITH RELATIVELY NO CHANGE IN THE MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...THE COMBINATION OF RH WITH AFTN TEMPS WED AND THU
WILL YIELD HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 100-104...WITH A FEW 105
READINGS ESPECIALLY ON WED. OVERALL...WILL SEE DAILY MAXES LOWER
BY A DEGREE OR 2 DURING EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY...WITH THE GFS MOS
GUIDANCE ILLUSTRATING THIS WELL.
WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH PROGRESSING EAST OF THE ILM
CWA DURING THIS PERIOD...UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL S/W TROFS/VORTS WILL
HAVE A CHANCE TO PUSH ACROSS THE FA. THE TIMING OF THIS OCCURRENCE
DURING THE DAY...IE. INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE SEA BREEZE...WILL
BE CRUCIAL IN DETERMINING THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. CURRENTLY
15-20 POPS WED AND THU...THAT INCREASE TO 30-40 POPS FRI INTO
SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY IN STORE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
TO OUR WEST WILL GIVE US NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW THIS MORNING...
BECOMING SOUTHWEST OR SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION EXPECTED. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS ONCE AGAIN HIGH...BUT
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF A TRIGGER TO KICK THINGS OFF. DIMINISHING
WINDS THIS EVENING WITH PERHAPS SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH
MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM SUNDAY...OFFSHORE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. AS INLAND TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO
THE UPPER 90S THIS SHOULD INDUCE A SEABREEZE CIRCULATION TO FORM
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. NEARSHORE WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY WITH
SPEEDS STILL AROUND 10 KNOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO
THE FORECAST. DISCUSSION FROM 600 AM FOLLOWS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONCERT WITH A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE. MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WILL INCLUDE THE MORNING LAND
BREEZE AND THE NEARLY PINNED AFTERNOON AND EVE SEABREEZE. THE WIND
DIRECTION TO START THE PERIOD WILL BE FROM THE W AND NW 10 KT OR
LESS. SW WINDS WILL RETURN BY LATE MORNING AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
WILL GENERALLY BE 10 TO 15 KT...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE DUE TO SEABREEZE
INFLUENCES. ANY NOCTURNAL JETTING LOOKS RATHER WEAK TONIGHT...SO DO
NOT EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT
THROUGHOUT.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...SFC RIDGING WILL EXTEND WESTWARD FROM THE
CENTER OF THE BERMUDA HIGH TO ACROSS FLORIDA. THIS SFC PRESSURE
POSITIONING WILL RESULT IN WESTERLY WINDS TO START THE DAY THAT
BACK TO THE SSW-SW EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY CLOSER
TO THE COAST DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN RELAXED FOR MONDAY WITH 10 KT WIND SPEEDS COMMON...EXCEPT
NEAR SHORE WHERE THE SEA-BREEZE COULD PUSH SPEEDS TO 10-15 KT. THE
SFC PG IS PROGGED TO TIGHTEN-SOME EARLY TUE THRU TUE NIGHT. THIS
COULD RESULT IN A SOLID 15 KT WIND SPEED. AS FOR SIGNIFICANT
SEAS...THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE LOOKING AT 2 TO OCCASIONALLY 3
FT...WITH 4 TO 5 SECOND WIND DRIVEN WAVES AND A 1 FOOT ESE 11
SECOND PERIOD GROUND SWELL DUKING IT OUT TO WHICH DOMINATES.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...DURING THIS PERIOD...THE AREA WATERS WILL
LIE BETWEEN THE NE-SW ORIENTED SFC TROF OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...AND THE SFC RIDGING THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
BERMUDA HIGH WELL OFFSHORE FROM THE SE U.S....ACROSS THE FLORIDA
COAST. THIS WILL PREDOMINATELY PRODUCE A SW WIND DIRECTION THRU
THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE NOT AS PRONOUNCED...COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS...WITH THE PROGGED TIGHTENED SFC PG ACROSS THE AREA
WATERS WEDNESDAY THRU THURSDAY. WILL NOT ENTIRELY BUY THIS
OUTPUT...BUT WILL MENTION A SOLID 10-15 KT WIND SPEED THRU THE
PERIOD...POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 15-20 KT LATE THU.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FEET...POSSIBLY UP TO 4 FT LATER
THU. WIND DRIVEN WAVES AT 4 TO 5 SECOND PERIODS WILL DOMINATE THE
SIGNIFICANT SEAS. A LESS THAN 1 FOOT...11 SECOND PERIOD...ESE
GROUND SWELL TO REMAIN IDENTIFIABLE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 945 AM SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY NOT BE RECORD-BREAKING
HEAT IT`S STILL THE FIRST TIME IN ALMOST 3 YEARS WE`VE HAD THESE
KIND OF TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST.
...MOST RECENT HOT TEMPERATURE OCCURRENCES...
97 98 99 100 101 102 103
WILMINGTON 6/20/14 7/27/12 7/27/12 7/27/12 7/27/12 6/30/12 6/30/12
MYRTLE BEACH 7/24/12 7/24/12 7/28/05 7/27/05 7/27/05 8/17/54 8/17/54
FLORENCE 6/13/15 9/02/14 9/02/14 7/09/14 7/26/12 7/09/12 7/01/12
FLORENCE INFORMATION UPDATED FOR YESTERDAY`S HIGH OF 97 DEGREES.
THIS INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE GRAPHICALLY ON OUR FACEBOOK &
TWITTER PAGES.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RJD/TRA
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...DL
CLIMATE...TRA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
639 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH MID WEEK.
THE WORST OF THE HEAT WAVE IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOMEWHAT
LOWER TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO WEAKEN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS
WEEK WILL BE ISOLATED.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM SUNDAY...THE HEAT WILL BE ON TODAY. WE ARE NOT QUITE
FORECASTING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ALTHOUGH PROSPECTS FOR MEETING
CRITERIA DO INCREASE IN THE COMING DAYS. FOR TODAY...ALTHOUGH A
FEW INLAND SPOTS MAY EXPERIENCE HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 DEG FOR
AN HOUR OR SO...MIXING IS EXPECTED TO BRING DEWPOINTS DOWN JUST
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A HEAT ADVISORY. HOWEVER...ACROSS OUR ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA...WE DO EXPECT MANY PLACES WILL REACH HEAT INDEX
VALUES OF 102 TO 104 DEG FOR A FEW HOURS TODAY. WE WILL REISSUE AN
SPS TO ADDRESS THE HEAT.
TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL RISE TO ABOUT 20 DEG C TODAY. THIS IS A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN ON SAT. ON SAT...MANY INLAND THERMOMETERS REGISTERED
UPPER 90S AND A FEW SPOTS...LIKE LBT...REACHED 100 DEG. LOCATIONS
NEARER TO THE COAST WERE MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 90S. THEREFORE...ALL
ELSE BEING EQUAL...MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE AS WARM IF NOT A DEGREE OR
TWO WARMER TODAY. WE ARE FORECASTING WIDESPREAD HIGHS VERY NEAR THE
CENTURY MARK INLAND. THE MORE COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE MID
AND UPPER 90S. THE SEABREEZE SHOULD MAKE SLIGHTLY BETTER PROGRESS
INLAND AS THE WESTERLY WINDS IN THE LOWEST 5 KFT WILL BE LIGHT
TODAY. HOWEVER...THIS WILL ONLY SERVE TO KEEP COASTAL DEWPOINTS
ELEVATED OR INCREASE THEM SLIGHTLY WHICH WILL ONLY ADD TO THE
DISCOMFORT LEVEL.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IN CONCERT WITH A VERY WARM RIDGE
ALOFT WILL BRING A BONA FIDE HEAT WAVE TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
THIS WEEK. RECORD HIGHS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO REACH OR EXCEED
TODAY...
THE RECORD HIGH AT FLO IS 102 SET IN 1958 AND THE FORECAST HIGH FOR
TODAY IS 99.
THE RECORD HIGH AT ILM IS 99 SET IN 1958 AND THE FORECAST HIGH FOR
TODAY IS 97.
THE RECORD HIGH AT CRE IS 98 SET IN 2010 AND THE FORECAST HIGH FOR
TODAY IS 93.
TEMPS AFTER SUNSET WILL BE VERY WARM WITH MANY PLACES STILL NEAR 80
DEG AS LATE AS THE MIDNIGHT HOUR. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE MID AND
UPPER 70S.
AS FAR AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONCERNED. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE SUBSIDENCE TODAY WHICH WOULD BE A DETRIMENT TO
DEVELOPING CONVECTION. HOWEVER...VERY STRONG HEATING WILL INCREASE
INSTABILITY WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND
2000 J/KG. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN NEAR 2 INCHES.
ALTHOUGH TEMPS ARE WARM ALOFT...THEY ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE WARM
ENOUGH TO SERVE AS A CAPPING INVERSION. BOUNDARIES WHICH MAY SERVE
TO FOCUS THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCLUDE THE SEABREEZE AND THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH. ALSO...A VERY WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST DURING THE TIME OF PEAK
HEATING. TAKING THE HRRR FORECAST INTO ACCOUNT...WILL OPT TO
INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE. ALTHOUGH THIS HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...IT DOES SHOW THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ACROSS OUR INLAND ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...DANGEROUS AND RECORD BREAKING HEAT DURING
THIS PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH STRADDLING
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH OVER SOUTHERN NC...MUCH OF SC...AND
ACROSS EASTERN GEORGIA...DURING THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SFC
RIDGING FROM THE CENTER OF THE OFFSHORE BERMUDA HIGH WILL EXTEND
WSW INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. AT THE SAME TIME...THE SFC PIEDMONT
TROF WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS THRUOUT THIS
PERIOD. THIS SFC PRESSURE PATTERN WILL RESULT WITH SFC SW-NW
WINDS ACROSS THE ILM CWA...AND SOUTHERLY WINDS CLOSER TO THE
COAST EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING DUE TO THE DAILY SEA BREEZE.
AS FOR MAX AND MIN TEMPS...HAVE STAYED CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY
HOTTER GFS MOS MODEL GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY WITH DAILY MAX TEMPS.
A GOOD CHUNK OF THE FA WILL BE LOOKING AT POSSIBLE 100+ DEGREE
TEMPERATURE READINGS EACH DAY...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST AND THE EFFECTS FROM THE INLAND PROGRESSING AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE. EVENTHOUGH THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL NOT EXPERIENCE
THE AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS THAT INLAND AREAS DO...BUT THEY WILL
HOWEVER EXPERIENCE HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGHER
RHS. WITH THIS SAID...THE AREA INCLUDING THE IMMEDIATE
COAST...WILL BE LOOKING AT PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 104 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE. THIS PLACES
THE FA WITHIN HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND LIKELY ONE WILL BE
ISSUED FOR THIS TIME PERIOD LATER TODAY. FOR THE TIME BEING...A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE UPCOMING DANGEROUS HEAT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM WITH 75-80 DEGREE READINGS
BOTH NIGHTS...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
WHERE LOCAL SSTS ARE NOW IN THE LOWER 80S.
AS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH DAY...HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR EACH AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. THIS TO OCCUR WITH WEAK UVVS ALONG
THE INLAND PROGRESSING SEA BREEZE. THE CONVECTION WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED AND WEAK WITH VERY LITTLE HELP OR SUPPORT FROM ALOFT DUE TO
THE LACK OF ANY S/W TROFS/VORTS PASSING OVERHEAD.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...THE EXTENDED PROGS INDICATE THE UPPER HIGH
AND ASSOCIATED RIDGING ACROSS THE FA WEDNESDAY...IS EXPECTED TO
SLIDE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST LATE THU THRU SATURDAY. THIS A RESULT
OF FORCING FROM A MODEST BUT POTENT UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL S/W TROF
UPSTREAM...THAT PUSHES FROM THE LOWER PLAINS STATES TO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS COME SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...WEDNESDAY AND
POSSIBLY THU WILL BE THE HOTTEST OF THE 4 DAYS IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. WITH RELATIVELY NO CHANGE IN THE MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...THE COMBINATION OF RH WITH AFTN TEMPS WED AND THU
WILL YIELD HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 100-104...WITH A FEW 105
READINGS ESPECIALLY ON WED. OVERALL...WILL SEE DAILY MAXES LOWER
BY A DEGREE OR 2 DURING EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY...WITH THE GFS MOS
GUIDANCE ILLUSTRATING THIS WELL.
WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH PROGRESSING EAST OF THE ILM
CWA DURING THIS PERIOD...UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL S/W TROFS/VORTS WILL
HAVE A CHANCE TO PUSH ACROSS THE FA. THE TIMING OF THIS OCCURRENCE
DURING THE DAY...IE. INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE SEA BREEZE...WILL
BE CRUCIAL IN DETERMINING THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. CURRENTLY
15-20 POPS WED AND THU...THAT INCREASE TO 30-40 POPS FRI INTO
SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY IN STORE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
TO OUR WEST WILL GIVE US NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW THIS MORNING...
BECOMING SOUTHWEST OR SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION EXPECTED. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS ONCE AGAIN HIGH...BUT
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF A TRIGGER TO KICK THINGS OFF. DIMINISHING
WINDS THIS EVENING WITH PERHAPS SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH
MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONCERT WITH A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WILL
INCLUDE THE MORNING LAND BREEZE AND THE NEARLY PINNED AFTERNOON
AND EVE SEABREEZE. THE WIND DIRECTION TO START THE PERIOD WILL BE
FROM THE W AND NW 10 KT OR LESS. SW WINDS WILL RETURN BY LATE
MORNING AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WIND
SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE 10 TO 15
KT...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVE DUE TO SEABREEZE INFLUENCES. ANY NOCTURNAL
JETTING LOOKS RATHER WEAK TONIGHT...SO DO NOT EXPECT WIND SPEEDS
TO INCREASE. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT THROUGHOUT.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...SFC RIDGING WILL EXTEND WESTWARD FROM THE
CENTER OF THE BERMUDA HIGH TO ACROSS FLORIDA. THIS SFC PRESSURE
POSITIONING WILL RESULT IN WESTERLY WINDS TO START THE DAY THAT
BACK TO THE SSW-SW EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY CLOSER
TO THE COAST DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN RELAXED FOR MONDAY WITH 10 KT WIND SPEEDS COMMON...EXCEPT
NEAR SHORE WHERE THE SEA-BREEZE COULD PUSH SPEEDS TO 10-15 KT. THE
SFC PG IS PROGGED TO TIGHTEN-SOME EARLY TUE THRU TUE NIGHT. THIS
COULD RESULT IN A SOLID 15 KT WIND SPEED. AS FOR SIGNIFICANT
SEAS...THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE LOOKING AT 2 TO OCCASIONALLY 3
FT...WITH 4 TO 5 SECOND WIND DRIVEN WAVES AND A 1 FOOT ESE 11
SECOND PERIOD GROUND SWELL DUKING IT OUT TO WHICH DOMINATES.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...DURING THIS PERIOD...THE AREA WATERS WILL
LIE BETWEEN THE NE-SW ORIENTED SFC TROF OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...AND THE SFC RIDGING THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
BERMUDA HIGH WELL OFFSHORE FROM THE SE U.S....ACROSS THE FLORIDA
COAST. THIS WILL PREDOMINATELY PRODUCE A SW WIND DIRECTION THRU
THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE NOT AS PRONOUNCED...COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS...WITH THE PROGGED TIGHTENED SFC PG ACROSS THE AREA
WATERS WEDNESDAY THRU THURSDAY. WILL NOT ENTIRELY BUY THIS
OUTPUT...BUT WILL MENTION A SOLID 10-15 KT WIND SPEED THRU THE
PERIOD...POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 15-20 KT LATE THU.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FEET...POSSIBLY UP TO 4 FT LATER
THU. WIND DRIVEN WAVES AT 4 TO 5 SECOND PERIODS WILL DOMINATE THE
SIGNIFICANT SEAS. A LESS THAN 1 FOOT...11 SECOND PERIOD...ESE
GROUND SWELL TO REMAIN IDENTIFIABLE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY NOT BE RECORD-BREAKING
HEAT IT`S STILL THE FIRST TIME IN ALMOST 3 YEARS WE`VE HAD THESE
KIND OF TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST.
...MOST RECENT HOT TEMPERATURE OCCURRENCES...
97 98 99 100 101 102 103
WILMINGTON 6/20/14 7/27/12 7/27/12 7/27/12 7/27/12 6/30/12 6/30/12
MYRTLE BEACH 7/24/12 7/24/12 7/28/05 7/27/05 7/27/05 8/17/54 8/17/54
FLORENCE 9/02/14 9/02/14 9/02/14 7/09/14 7/26/12 7/09/12 7/01/12
THIS INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE GRAPHICALLY ON OUR FACEBOOK &
TWITTER PAGES.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...DL
CLIMATE...TRA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
620 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND PERSISTENT RIDGING
ALOFT...WILL CREATE HOT TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY EXCEED 100
DEGREES...AND MAY REACH 105 DEGREES OR HIGHER MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL WEAKEN SOME
BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY LOWER
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...THE HEAT WILL BE ON TODAY. WE ARE NOT QUITE
FORECASTING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ALTHOUGH PROSPECTS FOR MEETING
CRITERIA DO INCREASE IN THE COMING DAYS. FOR TODAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW
INLAND SPOTS MAY EXPERIENCE HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 DEG FOR AN HOUR
OR SO...MIXING IS EXPECTED TO BRING DEWPOINTS DOWN JUST ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE A HEAT ADVISORY. HOWEVER...ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA...WE DO EXPECT MANY PLACES WILL REACH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 102
TO 104 DEG FOR A FEW HOURS TODAY. WE WILL REISSUE AN SPS TO ADDRESS
THE HEAT.
TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL RISE TO ABOUT 20 DEG C TODAY. THIS IS A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN ON SAT. ON SAT...MANY INLAND THERMOMETERS REGISTERED
UPPER 90S AND A FEW SPOTS...LIKE LBT...REACHED 100 DEG. LOCATIONS
NEARER TO THE COAST WERE MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 90S. THEREFORE...ALL
ELSE BEING EQUAL...MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE AS WARM IF NOT A DEGREE OR
TWO WARMER TODAY. WE ARE FORECASTING WIDESPREAD HIGHS VERY NEAR THE
CENTURY MARK INLAND. THE MORE COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE MID
AND UPPER 90S. THE SEABREEZE SHOULD MAKE SLIGHTLY BETTER PROGRESS
INLAND AS THE WESTERLY WINDS IN THE LOWEST 5 KFT WILL BE LIGHT
TODAY. HOWEVER...THIS WILL ONLY SERVE TO KEEP COASTAL DEWPOINTS
ELEVATED OR INCREASE THEM SLIGHTLY WHICH WILL ONLY ADD TO THE
DISCOMFORT LEVEL.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A VERY WARM RIDGE ALOFT WILL IN
CONCERT BRING A BONA FIDE HEAT WAVE TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS
WEEK. RECORD HIGHS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO REACH OR EXCEED TODAY...
THE RECORD HIGH AT FLO IS 102 SET IN 1958 AND THE FORECAST HIGH FOR
TODAY IS 99.
THE RECORD HIGH AT ILM IS 99 SET IN 1958 AND THE FORECAST HIGH FOR
TODAY IS 97.
THE RECORD HIGH AT CRE IS 98 SET IN 2010 AND THE FORECAST HIGH FOR
TODAY IS 93.
TEMPS AFTER SUNSET WILL BE VERY WARM WITH MANY PLACES STILL NEAR 80
DEG AS LATE AS THE MIDNIGHT HOUR. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE MID AND
UPPER 70S.
AS FAR AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONCERNED. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE SUBSIDENCE TODAY WHICH WOULD BE A DETRIMENT TO
DEVELOPING CONVECTION. HOWEVER...VERY STRONG HEATING WILL INCREASE
INSTABILITY WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND
2000 J/KG. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN NEAR 2 INCHES.
ALTHOUGH TEMPS ARE WARM ALOFT...THEY ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE WARM
ENOUGH TO SERVE AS A CAPPING INVERSION. BOUNDARIES WHICH MAY SERVE
TO FOCUS THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCLUDE THE SEABREEZE AND THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH. ALSO...A VERY WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST DURING THE TIME OF PEAK
HEATING. TAKING THE HRRR FORECAST INTO ACCOUNT...WILL OPT FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE.
ALTHOUGH THIS HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL HAS NOT INITIALIZED VERY WELL
THIS HOUR...IT DOES SHOW THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ACROSS
OUR INLAND ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...DANGEROUS AND RECORD BREAKING HEAT DURING
THIS PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH STRADDLING
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH OVER SOUTHERN NC...MUCH OF SC...AND
ACROSS EASTERN GEORGIA...DURING THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SFC
RIDGING FROM THE CENTER OF THE OFFSHORE BERMUDA HIGH WILL EXTEND
WSW INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. AT THE SAME TIME...THE SFC PIEDMONT
TROF WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS THRUOUT THIS
PERIOD. THIS SFC PRESSURE PATTERN WILL RESULT WITH SFC SW-NW
WINDS ACROSS THE ILM CWA...AND SOUTHERLY WINDS CLOSER TO THE
COAST EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING DUE TO THE DAILY SEA BREEZE.
AS FOR MAX AND MIN TEMPS...HAVE STAYED CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY
HOTTER GFS MOS MODEL GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY WITH DAILY MAX TEMPS.
A GOOD CHUNK OF THE FA WILL BE LOOKING AT POSSIBLE 100+ DEGREE
TEMPERATURE READINGS EACH DAY...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST AND THE EFFECTS FROM THE INLAND PROGRESSING AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE. EVENTHOUGH THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL NOT EXPERIENCE
THE AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS THAT INLAND AREAS DO...BUT THEY WILL
HOWEVER EXPERIENCE HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGHER
RHS. WITH THIS SAID...THE AREA INCLUDING THE IMMEDIATE
COAST...WILL BE LOOKING AT PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 104 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE. THIS PLACES
THE FA WITHIN HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND LIKELY ONE WILL BE
ISSUED FOR THIS TIME PERIOD LATER TODAY. FOR THE TIME BEING...A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE UPCOMING DANGEROUS HEAT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM WITH 75-80 DEGREE READINGS
BOTH NIGHTS...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
WHERE LOCAL SSTS ARE NOW IN THE LOWER 80S.
AS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH DAY...HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR EACH AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. THIS TO OCCUR WITH WEAK UVVS ALONG
THE INLAND PROGRESSING SEA BREEZE. THE CONVECTION WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED AND WEAK WITH VERY LITTLE HELP OR SUPPORT FROM ALOFT DUE TO
THE LACK OF ANY S/W TROFS/VORTS PASSING OVERHEAD.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...THE EXTENDED PROGS INDICATE THE UPPER HIGH
AND ASSOCIATED RIDGING ACROSS THE FA WEDNESDAY...IS EXPECTED TO
SLIDE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST LATE THU THRU SATURDAY. THIS A RESULT
OF FORCING FROM A MODEST BUT POTENT UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL S/W TROF
UPSTREAM...THAT PUSHES FROM THE LOWER PLAINS STATES TO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS COME SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...WEDNESDAY AND
POSSIBLY THU WILL BE THE HOTTEST OF THE 4 DAYS IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. WITH RELATIVELY NO CHANGE IN THE MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...THE COMBINATION OF RH WITH AFTN TEMPS WED AND THU
WILL YIELD HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 100-104...WITH A FEW 105
READINGS ESPECIALLY ON WED. OVERALL...WILL SEE DAILY MAXES LOWER
BY A DEGREE OR 2 DURING EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY...WITH THE GFS MOS
GUIDANCE ILLUSTRATING THIS WELL.
WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH PROGRESSING EAST OF THE ILM
CWA DURING THIS PERIOD...UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL S/W TROFS/VORTS WILL
HAVE A CHANCE TO PUSH ACROSS THE FA. THE TIMING OF THIS OCCURRENCE
DURING THE DAY...IE. INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE SEA BREEZE...WILL
BE CRUCIAL IN DETERMINING THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. CURRENTLY
15-20 POPS WED AND THU...THAT INCREASE TO 30-40 POPS FRI INTO
SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY IN STORE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
TO OUR WEST WILL GIVE US NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW THIS
MORNING...BECOMING SOUTHWEST OR SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION EXPECTED. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS ONCE AGAIN HIGH...BUT NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF A TRIGGER TO KICK THINGS OFF. DIMINISHING WINDS
THIS EVENING WITH PERHAPS SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH
MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONCERT WITH A LARGE
UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WILL INCLUDE
THE MORNING LAND BREEZE AND THE NEARLY PINNED AFTERNOON AND EVE
SEABREEZE. THE WIND DIRECTION TO START THE PERIOD WILL BE FROM THE W
AND NW 10 KT OR LESS. SW WINDS WILL RETURN BY LATE MORNING AND THEN
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE 10 TO 15 KT...WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE DUE
TO SEABREEZE INFLUENCES. ANY NOCTURNAL JETTING LOOKS RATHER WEAK
TONIGHT...SO DO NOT EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE. SEAS WILL BE 2
TO 3 FT THROUGHOUT.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN
VA/NORTHERN NC WILL EXIST WITHIN A REGIME DOMINATED BY HOT HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT. WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION WILL BE GOVERNED MAINLY
BY DIURNAL SEABREEZE/LANDBREEZE PROCESSES. WESTERLY WINDS BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY DURING BOTH
AFTERNOONS. SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 2 FEET...EXCEPT BUILDING TO 3 FEET
MONDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM
SUNDAY...SFC RIDGING WILL EXTEND WESTWARD FROM THE CENTER OF THE
BERMUDA HIGH TO ACROSS FLORIDA. THIS SFC PRESSURE POSITIONING WILL
RESULT IN WESTERLY WINDS TO START THE DAY THAT BACK TO THE SSW-SW
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO
THE SEA BREEZE. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RELAXED FOR
MONDAY WITH 10 KT WIND SPEEDS COMMON...EXCEPT NEAR SHORE WHERE THE
SEA-BREEZE COULD PUSH SPEEDS TO 10-15 KT. THE SFC PG IS PROGGED TO
TIGHTEN-SOME EARLY TUE THRU TUE NIGHT. THIS COULD RESULT IN A
SOLID 15 KT WIND SPEED. AS FOR SIGNIFICANT SEAS...THE LOCAL WATERS
WILL BE LOOKING AT 2 TO OCCASIONALLY 3 FT...WITH 4 TO 5 SECOND
WIND DRIVEN WAVES AND A 1 FOOT ESE 11 SECOND PERIOD GROUND SWELL
DUKING IT OUT TO WHICH DOMINATES.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...DURING THIS PERIOD...THE AREA WATERS WILL
LIE BETWEEN THE NE-SW ORIENTED SFC TROF OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...AND THE SFC RIDGING THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
BERMUDA HIGH WELL OFFSHORE FROM THE SE U.S....ACROSS THE FLORIDA
COAST. THIS WILL PREDOMINATELY PRODUCE A SW WIND DIRECTION THRU
THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE NOT AS PRONOUNCED...COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS...WITH THE PROGGED TIGHTENED SFC PG ACROSS THE AREA
WATERS WEDNESDAY THRU THURSDAY. WILL NOT ENTIRELY BUY THIS
OUTPUT...BUT WILL MENTION A SOLID 10-15 KT WIND SPEED THRU THE
PERIOD...POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 15-20 KT LATE THU.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FEET...POSSIBLY UP TO 4 FT LATER
THU. WIND DRIVEN WAVES AT 4 TO 5 SECOND PERIODS WILL DOMINATE THE
SIGNIFICANT SEAS. A LESS THAN 1 FOOT...11 SECOND PERIOD...ESE
GROUND SWELL TO REMAIN IDENTIFIABLE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY NOT BE RECORD-BREAKING
HEAT IT`S STILL THE FIRST TIME IN ALMOST 3 YEARS WE`VE HAD THESE
KIND OF TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST.
...MOST RECENT HOT TEMPERATURE OCCURRENCES...
97 98 99 100 101 102 103
WILMINGTON 6/20/14 7/27/12 7/27/12 7/27/12 7/27/12 6/30/12 6/30/12
MYRTLE BEACH 7/24/12 7/24/12 7/28/05 7/27/05 7/27/05 8/17/54 8/17/54
FLORENCE 9/02/14 9/02/14 9/02/14 7/09/14 7/26/12 7/09/12 7/01/12
THIS INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE GRAPHICALLY ON OUR FACEBOOK &
TWITTER PAGES.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DCH
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...RJD/MRR
CLIMATE...TRA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
451 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND PERSISTENT RIDGING
ALOFT...WILL CREATE HOT TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY EXCEED 100
DEGREES...AND MAY REACH 105 DEGREES OR HIGHER MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL WEAKEN SOME
BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY LOWER
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...THE HEAT WILL BE ON TODAY. WE ARE NOT QUITE
FORECASTING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ALTHOUGH PROSPECTS FOR MEETING
CRITERIA DO INCREASE IN THE COMING DAYS. FOR TODAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW
INLAND SPOTS MAY EXPERIENCE HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 DEG FOR AN HOUR
OR SO...MIXING IS EXPECTED TO BRING DEWPOINTS DOWN JUST ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE A HEAT ADVISORY. HOWEVER...ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA...WE DO EXPECT MANY PLACES WILL REACH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 102
TO 104 DEG FOR A FEW HOURS TODAY. WE WILL REISSUE AN SPS TO ADDRESS
THE HEAT.
TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL RISE TO ABOUT 20 DEG C TODAY. THIS IS A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN ON SAT. ON SAT...MANY INLAND THERMOMETERS REGISTERED
UPPER 90S AND A FEW SPOTS...LIKE LBT...REACHED 100 DEG. LOCATIONS
NEARER TO THE COAST WERE MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 90S. THEREFORE...ALL
ELSE BEING EQUAL...MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE AS WARM IF NOT A DEGREE OR
TWO WARMER TODAY. WE ARE FORECASTING WIDESPREAD HIGHS VERY NEAR THE
CENTURY MARK INLAND. THE MORE COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE MID
AND UPPER 90S. THE SEABREEZE SHOULD MAKE SLIGHTLY BETTER PROGRESS
INLAND AS THE WESTERLY WINDS IN THE LOWEST 5 KFT WILL BE LIGHT
TODAY. HOWEVER...THIS WILL ONLY SERVE TO KEEP COASTAL DEWPOINTS
ELEVATED OR INCREASE THEM SLIGHTLY WHICH WILL ONLY ADD TO THE
DISCOMFORT LEVEL.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A VERY WARM RIDGE ALOFT WILL IN
CONCERT BRING A BONA FIDE HEAT WAVE TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS
WEEK. RECORD HIGHS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO REACH OR EXCEED TODAY...
THE RECORD HIGH AT FLO IS 102 SET IN 1958 AND THE FORECAST HIGH FOR
TODAY IS 99.
THE RECORD HIGH AT ILM IS 99 SET IN 1958 AND THE FORECAST HIGH FOR
TODAY IS 97.
THE RECORD HIGH AT CRE IS 98 SET IN 2010 AND THE FORECAST HIGH FOR
TODAY IS 93.
TEMPS AFTER SUNSET WILL BE VERY WARM WITH MANY PLACES STILL NEAR 80
DEG AS LATE AS THE MIDNIGHT HOUR. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE MID AND
UPPER 70S.
AS FAR AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONCERNED. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE SUBSIDENCE TODAY WHICH WOULD BE A DETRIMENT TO
DEVELOPING CONVECTION. HOWEVER...VERY STRONG HEATING WILL INCREASE
INSTABILITY WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND
2000 J/KG. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN NEAR 2 INCHES.
ALTHOUGH TEMPS ARE WARM ALOFT...THEY ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE WARM
ENOUGH TO SERVE AS A CAPPING INVERSION. BOUNDARIES WHICH MAY SERVE
TO FOCUS THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCLUDE THE SEABREEZE AND THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH. ALSO...A VERY WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST DURING THE TIME OF PEAK
HEATING. TAKING THE HRRR FORECAST INTO ACCOUNT...WILL OPT FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE.
ALTHOUGH THIS HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL HAS NOT INITIALIZED VERY WELL
THIS HOUR...IT DOES SHOW THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ACROSS
OUR INLAND ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...DANGEROUS AND RECORD BREAKING HEAT DURING
THIS PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH STRADDLING
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH OVER SOUTHERN NC...MUCH OF SC...AND
ACROSS EASTERN GEORGIA...DURING THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SFC
RIDGING FROM THE CENTER OF THE OFFSHORE BERMUDA HIGH WILL EXTEND
WSW INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. AT THE SAME TIME...THE SFC PIEDMONT
TROF WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS THRUOUT THIS
PERIOD. THIS SFC PRESSURE PATTERN WILL RESULT WITH SFC SW-NW
WINDS ACROSS THE ILM CWA...AND SOUTHERLY WINDS CLOSER TO THE
COAST EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING DUE TO THE DAILY SEA BREEZE.
AS FOR MAX AND MIN TEMPS...HAVE STAYED CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY
HOTTER GFS MOS MODEL GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY WITH DAILY MAX TEMPS.
A GOOD CHUNK OF THE FA WILL BE LOOKING AT POSSIBLE 100+ DEGREE
TEMPERATURE READINGS EACH DAY...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST AND THE EFFECTS FROM THE INLAND PROGRESSING AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE. EVENTHOUGH THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL NOT EXPERIENCE
THE AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS THAT INLAND AREAS DO...BUT THEY WILL
HOWEVER EXPERIENCE HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGHER
RHS. WITH THIS SAID...THE AREA INCLUDING THE IMMEDIATE
COAST...WILL BE LOOKING AT PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 104 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE. THIS PLACES
THE FA WITHIN HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND LIKELY ONE WILL BE
ISSUED FOR THIS TIME PERIOD LATER TODAY. FOR THE TIME BEING...A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE UPCOMING DANGEROUS HEAT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM WITH 75-80 DEGREE READINGS
BOTH NIGHTS...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
WHERE LOCAL SSTS ARE NOW IN THE LOWER 80S.
AS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH DAY...HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR EACH AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. THIS TO OCCUR WITH WEAK UVVS ALONG
THE INLAND PROGRESSING SEA BREEZE. THE CONVECTION WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED AND WEAK WITH VERY LITTLE HELP OR SUPPORT FROM ALOFT DUE TO
THE LACK OF ANY S/W TROFS/VORTS PASSING OVERHEAD.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...THE EXTENDED PROGS INDICATE THE UPPER HIGH
AND ASSOCIATED RIDGING ACROSS THE FA WEDNESDAY...IS EXPECTED TO
SLIDE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST LATE THU THRU SATURDAY. THIS A RESULT
OF FORCING FROM A MODEST BUT POTENT UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL S/W TROF
UPSTREAM...THAT PUSHES FROM THE LOWER PLAINS STATES TO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS COME SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...WEDNESDAY AND
POSSIBLY THU WILL BE THE HOTTEST OF THE 4 DAYS IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. WITH RELATIVELY NO CHANGE IN THE MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...THE COMBINATION OF RH WITH AFTN TEMPS WED AND THU
WILL YIELD HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 100-104...WITH A FEW 105
READINGS ESPECIALLY ON WED. OVERALL...WILL SEE DAILY MAXES LOWER
BY A DEGREE OR 2 DURING EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY...WITH THE GFS MOS
GUIDANCE ILLUSTRATING THIS WELL.
WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH PROGRESSING EAST OF THE ILM
CWA DURING THIS PERIOD...UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL S/W TROFS/VORTS WILL
HAVE A CHANCE TO PUSH ACROSS THE FA. THE TIMING OF THIS OCCURRENCE
DURING THE DAY...IE. INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE SEA BREEZE...WILL
BE CRUCIAL IN DETERMINING THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. CURRENTLY
15-20 POPS WED AND THU...THAT INCREASE TO 30-40 POPS FRI INTO
SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT SW-
W WINDS. CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED BUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE
RULED OUT THIS MORNING. DO NOT EXPECT ANY VSBY ISSUES DUE TO FOG.
VFR WITH W-NW WINDS EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE...EXCEPT WINDS WILL BE
SHIFTING TO THE S WITH THE SEA BREEZE LATE MORNING AT KCRE AND IN
THE AFTERNOON AT KMYR AND KILM. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED ATTM ALONG THE SEA BREEZE PINNED NEAR THE COAST DUE TO DEEP
NW FLOW ALOFT...AND ALONG A WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH LOCATED NEAR THE
INLAND TERMINALS. WILL ONLY INDICATE VCSH ATTM. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 02Z.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH
MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONCERT WITH A LARGE
UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WILL INCLUDE
THE MORNING LAND BREEZE AND THE NEARLY PINNED AFTERNOON AND EVE
SEABREEZE. THE WIND DIRECTION TO START THE PERIOD WILL BE FROM THE W
AND NW 10 KT OR LESS. SW WINDS WILL RETURN BY LATE MORNING AND THEN
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE 10 TO 15 KT...WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE DUE
TO SEABREEZE INFLUENCES. ANY NOCTURNAL JETTING LOOKS RATHER WEAK
TONIGHT...SO DO NOT EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE. SEAS WILL BE 2
TO 3 FT THROUGHOUT.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN
VA/NORTHERN NC WILL EXIST WITHIN A REGIME DOMINATED BY HOT HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT. WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION WILL BE GOVERNED MAINLY
BY DIURNAL SEABREEZE/LANDBREEZE PROCESSES. WESTERLY WINDS BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY DURING BOTH
AFTERNOONS. SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 2 FEET...EXCEPT BUILDING TO 3 FEET
MONDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM
SUNDAY...SFC RIDGING WILL EXTEND WESTWARD FROM THE CENTER OF THE
BERMUDA HIGH TO ACROSS FLORIDA. THIS SFC PRESSURE POSITIONING WILL
RESULT IN WESTERLY WINDS TO START THE DAY THAT BACK TO THE SSW-SW
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO
THE SEA BREEZE. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RELAXED FOR
MONDAY WITH 10 KT WIND SPEEDS COMMON...EXCEPT NEAR SHORE WHERE THE
SEA-BREEZE COULD PUSH SPEEDS TO 10-15 KT. THE SFC PG IS PROGGED TO
TIGHTEN-SOME EARLY TUE THRU TUE NIGHT. THIS COULD RESULT IN A
SOLID 15 KT WIND SPEED. AS FOR SIGNIFICANT SEAS...THE LOCAL WATERS
WILL BE LOOKING AT 2 TO OCCASIONALLY 3 FT...WITH 4 TO 5 SECOND
WIND DRIVEN WAVES AND A 1 FOOT ESE 11 SECOND PERIOD GROUND SWELL
DUKING IT OUT TO WHICH DOMINATES.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...DURING THIS PERIOD...THE AREA WATERS WILL
LIE BETWEEN THE NE-SW ORIENTED SFC TROF OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...AND THE SFC RIDGING THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
BERMUDA HIGH WELL OFFSHORE FROM THE SE U.S....ACROSS THE FLORIDA
COAST. THIS WILL PREDOMINATELY PRODUCE A SW WIND DIRECTION THRU
THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE NOT AS PRONOUNCED...COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS...WITH THE PROGGED TIGHTENED SFC PG ACROSS THE AREA
WATERS WEDNESDAY THRU THURSDAY. WILL NOT ENTIRELY BUY THIS
OUTPUT...BUT WILL MENTION A SOLID 10-15 KT WIND SPEED THRU THE
PERIOD...POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 15-20 KT LATE THU.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FEET...POSSIBLY UP TO 4 FT LATER
THU. WIND DRIVEN WAVES AT 4 TO 5 SECOND PERIODS WILL DOMINATE THE
SIGNIFICANT SEAS. A LESS THAN 1 FOOT...11 SECOND PERIOD...ESE
GROUND SWELL TO REMAIN IDENTIFIABLE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY NOT BE RECORD-BREAKING
HEAT IT`S STILL THE FIRST TIME IN ALMOST 3 YEARS WE`VE HAD THESE
KIND OF TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST.
...MOST RECENT HOT TEMPERATURE OCCURRENCES...
97 98 99 100 101 102 103
WILMINGTON 6/20/14 7/27/12 7/27/12 7/27/12 7/27/12 6/30/12 6/30/12
MYRTLE BEACH 7/24/12 7/24/12 7/28/05 7/27/05 7/27/05 8/17/54 8/17/54
FLORENCE 9/02/14 9/02/14 9/02/14 7/09/14 7/26/12 7/09/12 7/01/12
THIS INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE GRAPHICALLY ON OUR FACEBOOK &
TWITTER PAGES.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DCH
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...RJD/MRR
CLIMATE...TRA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
421 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND PERSISTENT RIDGING
ALOFT...WILL CREATE HOT TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY EXCEED 100
DEGREES...AND MAY REACH 105 DEGREES OR HIGHER MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL WEAKEN SOME
BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY LOWER
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...THE HEAT WILL BE ON TODAY. WE ARE NOT QUITE
FORECASTING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ALTHOUGH PROSPECTS FOR MEETING
CRITERIA DO INCREASE IN THE COMING DAYS. FOR TODAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW
INLAND SPOTS MAY EXPERIENCE HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 DEG FOR AN HOUR
OR SO...MIXING IS EXPECTED TO BRING DEWPOINTS DOWN JUST ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE A HEAT ADVISORY. HOWEVER...ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA...WE DO EXPECT MANY PLACES WILL REACH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 102
TO 104 DEG FOR A FEW HOURS TODAY. WE WILL REISSUE AN SPS TO ADDRESS
THE HEAT.
TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL RISE TO ABOUT 20 DEG C TODAY. THIS IS A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN ON SAT. ON SAT...MANY INLAND THERMOMETERS REGISTERED
UPPER 90S AND A FEW SPOTS...LIKE LBT...REACHED 100 DEG. LOCATIONS
NEARER TO THE COAST WERE MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 90S. THEREFORE...ALL
ELSE BEING EQUAL...MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE AS WARM IF NOT A DEGREE OR
TWO WARMER TODAY. WE ARE FORECASTING WIDESPREAD HIGHS VERY NEAR THE
CENTURY MARK INLAND. THE MORE COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE MID
AND UPPER 90S. THE SEABREEZE SHOULD MAKE SLIGHTLY BETTER PROGRESS
INLAND AS THE WESTERLY WINDS IN THE LOWEST 5 KFT WILL BE LIGHT
TODAY. HOWEVER...THIS WILL ONLY SERVE TO KEEP COASTAL DEWPOINTS
ELEVATED OR INCREASE THEM SLIGHTLY WHICH WILL ONLY ADD TO THE
DISCOMFORT LEVEL.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A VERY WARM RIDGE ALOFT WILL IN
CONCERT BRING A BONA FIDE HEAT WAVE TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS
WEEK. RECORD HIGHS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO REACH OR EXCEED TODAY...
THE RECORD HIGH AT FLO IS 102 SET IN 1958 AND THE FORECAST HIGH FOR
TODAY IS 99.
THE RECORD HIGH AT ILM IS 99 SET IN 1958 AND THE FORECAST HIGH FOR
TODAY IS 97.
THE RECORD HIGH AT CRE IS 98 SET IN 2010 AND THE FORECAST HIGH FOR
TODAY IS 93.
TEMPS AFTER SUNSET WILL BE VERY WARM WITH MANY PLACES STILL NEAR 80
DEG AS LATE AS THE MIDNIGHT HOUR. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE MID AND
UPPER 70S.
AS FAR AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONCERNED. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE SUBSIDENCE TODAY WHICH WOULD BE A DETRIMENT TO
DEVELOPING CONVECTION. HOWEVER...VERY STRONG HEATING WILL INCREASE
INSTABILITY WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND
2000 J/KG. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN NEAR 2 INCHES.
ALTHOUGH TEMPS ARE WARM ALOFT...THEY ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE WARM
ENOUGH TO SERVE AS A CAPPING INVERSION. BOUNDARIES WHICH MAY SERVE
TO FOCUS THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCLUDE THE SEABREEZE AND THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH. ALSO...A VERY WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST DURING THE TIME OF PEAK
HEATING. TAKING THE HRRR FORECAST INTO ACCOUNT...WILL OPT FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE.
ALTHOUGH THIS HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL HAS NOT INITIALIZED VERY WELL
THIS HOUR...IT DOES SHOW THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ACROSS
OUR INLAND ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...DANGEROUS AND RECORD BREAKING HEAT DURING
THIS PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH STRADDLING
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH OVER SOUTHERN NC...MUCH OF SC...AND
ACROSS EASTERN GEORGIA...DURING THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SFC
RIDGING FROM THE CENTER OF THE OFFSHORE BERMUDA HIGH WILL EXTEND
WSW INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. AT THE SAME TIME...THE SFC PIEDMONT
TROF WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS THRUOUT THIS
PERIOD. THIS SFC PRESSURE PATTERN WILL RESULT WITH SFC SW-NW
WINDS ACROSS THE ILM CWA...AND SOUTHERLY WINDS CLOSER TO THE
COAST EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING DUE TO THE DAILY SEA BREEZE.
AS FOR MAX AND MIN TEMPS...HAVE STAYED CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY
HOTTER GFS MOS MODEL GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY WITH DAILY MAX TEMPS.
A GOOD CHUNK OF THE FA WILL BE LOOKING AT POSSIBLE 100+ DEGREE
TEMPERATURE READINGS EACH DAY...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST AND THE EFFECTS FROM THE INLAND PROGRESSING AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE. EVENTHOUGH THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL NOT EXPERIENCE
THE AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS THAT INLAND AREAS DO...BUT THEY WILL
HOWEVER EXPERIENCE HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGHER
RHS. WITH THIS SAID...THE AREA INCLUDING THE IMMEDIATE
COAST...WILL BE LOOKING AT PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 104 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE. THIS PLACES
THE FA WITHIN HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND LIKELY ONE WILL BE
ISSUED FOR THIS TIME PERIOD LATER TODAY. FOR THE TIME BEING...A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE UPCOMING DANGEROUS HEAT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM WITH 75-80 DEGREE READINGS
BOTH NIGHTS...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
WHERE LOCAL SSTS ARE NOW IN THE LOWER 80S.
AS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH DAY...HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR EACH AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. THIS TO OCCUR WITH WEAK UVVS ALONG
THE INLAND PROGRESSING SEA BREEZE. THE CONVECTION WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED AND WEAK WITH VERY LITTLE HELP OR SUPPORT FROM ALOFT DUE TO
THE LACK OF ANY S/W TROFS/VORTS PASSING OVERHEAD.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...THERE IS NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE TO THE
LONG TERM FORECAST WITH THIS LATEST UPDATE. IT IS STILL EXPECTED
THAT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE LONG
TERM AS AN UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE IN COMBINATION WITH A THERMAL TROUGH INLAND WILL CONTINUE
A LIGHT AND MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT WILL KEEP
DEWPOINTS ELEVATED IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S EACH DAY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO HEAT INDEX VALUES OF RIGHT AROUND OR EXCEEDING 100F EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE PERIOD. TUESDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE
HOTTEST DAY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AT ITS PEAK OF STRENGTH DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD. WIDESPREAD HEAT INDEX VALUES OF UP AROUND 105F ARE A
GOOD POSSIBILITY THEN. THE UPPER RIDGE BECOMES MORE SUPPRESSED TO
THE SOUTH AND DISPLACED TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER-TOPS IT...SO WILL SEE SOME MODEST DECREASE IN
TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...CONTINUED HIGH RH
VALUES WILL KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100
EACH AFTERNOON FOR THOSE DAYS.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL HELP SUPPRESS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...BUT WITH
SUCH STRONG SURFACE HEATING WE CAN EXPECT ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. CONVECTION MAY BECOME
MORE COMMON AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT SW-
W WINDS. CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED BUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE
RULED OUT THIS MORNING. DO NOT EXPECT ANY VSBY ISSUES DUE TO FOG.
VFR WITH W-NW WINDS EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE...EXCEPT WINDS WILL BE
SHIFTING TO THE S WITH THE SEA BREEZE LATE MORNING AT KCRE AND IN
THE AFTERNOON AT KMYR AND KILM. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED ATTM ALONG THE SEA BREEZE PINNED NEAR THE COAST DUE TO DEEP
NW FLOW ALOFT...AND ALONG A WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH LOCATED NEAR THE
INLAND TERMINALS. WILL ONLY INDICATE VCSH ATTM. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 02Z.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH
MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONCERT WITH A LARGE
UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WILL INCLUDE
THE MORNING LAND BREEZE AND THE NEARLY PINNED AFTERNOON AND EVE
SEABREEZE. THE WIND DIRECTION TO START THE PERIOD WILL BE FROM THE W
AND NW 10 KT OR LESS. SW WINDS WILL RETURN BY LATE MORNING AND THEN
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE 10 TO 15 KT...WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE DUE
TO SEABREEZE INFLUENCES. ANY NOCTURNAL JETTING LOOKS RATHER WEAK
TONIGHT...SO DO NOT EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE. SEAS WILL BE 2
TO 3 FT THROUGHOUT.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN
VA/NORTHERN NC WILL EXIST WITHIN A REGIME DOMINATED BY HOT HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT. WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION WILL BE GOVERNED MAINLY
BY DIURNAL SEABREEZE/LANDBREEZE PROCESSES. WESTERLY WINDS BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY DURING BOTH
AFTERNOONS. SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 2 FEET...EXCEPT BUILDING TO 3 FEET
MONDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM
SUNDAY...SFC RIDGING WILL EXTEND WESTWARD FROM THE CENTER OF THE
BERMUDA HIGH TO ACROSS FLORIDA. THIS SFC PRESSURE POSITIONING WILL
RESULT IN WESTERLY WINDS TO START THE DAY THAT BACK TO THE SSW-SW
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO
THE SEA BREEZE. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RELAXED FOR
MONDAY WITH 10 KT WIND SPEEDS COMMON...EXCEPT NEAR SHORE WHERE THE
SEA-BREEZE COULD PUSH SPEEDS TO 10-15 KT. THE SFC PG IS PROGGED TO
TIGHTEN-SOME EARLY TUE THRU TUE NIGHT. THIS COULD RESULT IN A
SOLID 15 KT WIND SPEED. AS FOR SIGNIFICANT SEAS...THE LOCAL WATERS
WILL BE LOOKING AT 2 TO OCCASIONALLY 3 FT...WITH 4 TO 5 SECOND
WIND DRIVEN WAVES AND A 1 FOOT ESE 11 SECOND PERIOD GROUND SWELL
DUKING IT OUT TO WHICH DOMINATES.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
IN COMBINATION WITH A THERMAL TROUGH INLAND WILL KEEP WINDS FROM
THE SW AND IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS NEAR SHORE WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND
WILL GUST UP INTO THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING AS THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION DEVELOPS. SEAS NEAR SHORE
WILL LIKEWISE BECOME MORE CHOPPY DURING THOSE TIMES. WINDS AND
SEAS INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS DUE TO A
STRENGTHENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS.
WINDS ON THAT DAY MAY INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE...WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY NOT BE RECORD-BREAKING
HEAT IT`S STILL THE FIRST TIME IN ALMOST 3 YEARS WE`VE HAD THESE
KIND OF TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST.
...MOST RECENT HOT TEMPERATURE OCCURRENCES...
97 98 99 100 101 102 103
WILMINGTON 6/20/14 7/27/12 7/27/12 7/27/12 7/27/12 6/30/12 6/30/12
MYRTLE BEACH 7/24/12 7/24/12 7/28/05 7/27/05 7/27/05 8/17/54 8/17/54
FLORENCE 9/02/14 9/02/14 9/02/14 7/09/14 7/26/12 7/09/12 7/01/12
THIS INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE GRAPHICALLY ON OUR FACEBOOK &
TWITTER PAGES.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DCH
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...RJD/MRR
CLIMATE...TRA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
557 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 515 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF WEAK 3HR PRESSURE FALLS
CONFINED MOSTLY TO SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A 90KT-100KT JETSTREAK PER LATEST
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA
ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SECONDARY/WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHING
FROM BRANDON MANITOBA/CYBR...TO MINOT/KMOT...AND WEST TO
SIDNEY/KSDY MONTANA. RESULTANT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS PULSATING UP AND DOWN PER LATEST REGIONAL/KMOT RADAR
CONTINUES OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL. THE LATEST HRRR VERIFYING WELL
AND REMAINS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH
WEAKENS/DISSIPATES THE SHOWERS THROUGH 03Z MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO SAG TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER BETWEEN 06Z-09Z WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. INHERITED FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN DRY AND
COOL WEATHER FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.
CURRENTLY...QUASI-ZONAL/CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A SECONDARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AS
HIGH RES MODELS EARLIER INDICATED. HRRR AND 4KM NMM WRF GENERATE
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST
OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SO EXPECT WEATHER TRENDING DRY THROUGH THE
EVENING.
FLOW ALOFT REMAINS QUASI-ZONAL WITH DRY AND COOL SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. RESULTANT WEATHER WILL BE PLEASANT...HIGHS 65-75...LIGHT
WINDS...AND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY LOOKS ACTIVE WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVERYDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS. INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...WITH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOWING MINIMAL CAPE AND SHOWALTER
INDICES ABOVE ZERO. THEREFORE...REMOVED THE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY...WITH PRIMARILY RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY.
WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK...SEVERAL FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS
WILL SWING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVERY DAY OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
ADDITIONALLY...WITH SEVERAL COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THIS
WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 515 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH 09Z WITH A MINOR WINDSHIFT TO THE NORTH. A VCSH WILL
CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING AT KMOT...UNTIL 01Z MONDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
325 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN DRY AND
COOL WEATHER FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.
CURRENTLY...QUASI-ZONAL/CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A SECONDARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AS
HIGH RES MODELS EARLIER INDICATED. HRRR AND 4KM NMM WRF GENERATE
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST
OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SO EXPECT WEATHER TRENDING DRY THROUGH THE
EVENING.
FLOW ALOFT REMAINS QUASI-ZONAL WITH DRY AND COOL SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. RESULTANT WEATHER WILL BE PLEASANT...HIGHS 65-75...LIGHT
WINDS...AND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY LOOKS ACTIVE WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVERYDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS. INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...WITH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOWING MINIMAL CAPE AND SHOWALTER
INDICES ABOVE ZERO. THEREFORE...REMOVED THE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY...WITH PRIMARILY RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY.
WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK...SEVERAL FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS
WILL SWING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVERY DAY OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
ADDITIONALLY...WITH SEVERAL COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THIS
WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
COVERAGE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF FORECASTS. OVERALL VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
219 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
CURRENT SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS AXIS OF A 1000 PLUS J/KG MXD LYR
CAPE ALONG THE SD/MN STATE LINE WITH 500 TO 1000 J/KG EXTENDING
INTO CENTRAL MN AND CLIPPING THE FAR SE...HOWEVER THAT AREA IS NOW
CLOUD COVERED AND INSTABILITY SHOULD DECREASE THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTN. RADAR TRENDS SHOW REMAINING ACTIVITY MOVING INTO
NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WITH EASTERN ND CLEARING OUT AND
RECEIVING SUNSHINE. LAST HRRR UPDATE FOR 1 PM FCST HAD GOOD HANDLE
ON THESE TRENDS AND WILL NOT NEED MUCH CHANGE...BUT WILL UPDATE
NEAR TERM WITH LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE PRIOR TO FCST ISSUANCE. THERE
IS CLEARNING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND SOME CU AND MID LEVEL CLOUD
EVIDENT AS A NORTHERN VORT MAX MOVES IN TO SRN MB...HOWEVER THERE
IS VIRTUALLY NO CAPE IN THE AREA. A CELL DID DEVELOP NORTH OF
MINOT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE MORE THAN ISOLD TO WIDELY
SCT. MOST LIKELY AREA FOR ANY ISOLD STORMS WOULD BE DVL REGION UP
TO THE INTL BORDER.
SFC HIGH DROPS INTO REGION ON MONDAY AND SHOULD BRING SUNNY SKIES
BUT A COOL CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S DURING THE DAY...AND CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 40S AS
THE SFC HIGH IS RIGHT OVER THE VALLEY AT 06Z TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
TUE AND WED...WARM ADVECTION PRECIP SPREADS MAINLY ACROSS SD
DURING THE DAY TUE AND LIFTS IN TO OUR CWA BY LATE TUE AFTN.
SHOWALTERS REMAIN 4 OR GREATER WITH MEAN LYR CAPES LESS THAN 100
IN THE FAR SOUTH...SO HAVE CHANGED PRECIP TYPE OVER TO SHRA.
PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO PULL PRECIP OUT OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST LATE WED
AFTN INTO WED NIGHT.
BEYOND TUE/WED SHRA ACTIVITY...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION WILL COME ON FRIDAY. THE GFS IS PROGGING A STRONG SFC
LOW AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THE ECMWF ALSO HAS
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SHOWERS AND STORMS...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS
UNSTABLE AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH DEEP MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD START
OUT A BIT BELOW NORMAL AND WARM TO NEAR NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE SHOWERS AND IF THERE WILL BE THUNDER IN
THE SOUTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS ARE MAINLY VFR AND HAVE
MENTIONED SOME MVFR NEAR HEAVIER SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE A CLEARING
TREND WITH VFR CONDITIONS ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT WITH SOME MID CLOUDS
MOVING INTO THE NORTH ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W/NW IN ALL
AREAS BY LATE TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...DK/SPEICHER
AVIATION...DK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1247 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WEST INITIALLY AND SPREADING EAST
LATER TODAY...DIURNALLY DRIVEN. OVERALL NO BIG CHANGES FROM THE
INHERITED FORECAST.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1014 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY OF
NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. EMBEDDED S/WV RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
MORNING THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN IS PUSHING EAST INTO WESTERN
MINNESOTA. ASSOCIATED RAINFALL AND T-STORMS SHOULD BE MOSTLY DONE
BY 17-18Z ACROSS MY SOUTHEAST AS THIS FEATURES EXITS OFF TO OUR
EAST AND AS THE BOUNDARY MIGRATES TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.
QUASI-ZONAL/CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TODAY AS A DEEP AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. HIGH RES MODELS
INCLUDING THE HRRR AND 4KM NMM WRF GENERATE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE POP 18Z-03Z THEN DRY
AFTERWARDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
MAIN CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE WERE TO ADJUST HOURLY POPS BASED ON
LATEST RADAR TRENDS. BACK EDGE OF PRECIP ACROSS WESTERN ND IS
PROGRESSING FASTER THAN MODELS DEPICTED...SO ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE IS REASONABLE WITH CONTINUING THIS
TREND...EVENTUALLY CLEARING OUR EASTERN CWA BY AROUND 18 OR 19Z.
SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS CONTINUE IN EASTERN MONTANA AND OUR
FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCES ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS SOME INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE AND HRRR GENERATES SOME
LIGHT PRECIP IN THIS AREA LATER IN THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS INVOLVE ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND
TRENDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS TAKING PLACE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94. ONE FAIRLY PERSISTENT LINE OF CONVECTION
HAS BEEN ONGOING FROM SIOUX/GRANT COUNTIES THROUGH EMMONS AND INTO
CENTRAL STUTSMAN. HEAVY RAIN OF 2 TO 3 INCHES IN MANY LOCATIONS
PER RADAR RESULTED IN FLOOD ADVISORIES BEING ISSUED. ANOTHER AREA
OF SHRA/TSRA MOVED INTO SOUTHWESTERN ND AND IS SLOWLY PROGRESSING
EASTWARD...ALTHOUGH THIS AREA IS TAKING ON A MORE STRATIFORM APPEARANCE
ON RADAR WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS PUSH THE WHOLE SYSTEM
EASTWARD...DRYING THE REGION OUT BY 00Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
NAM INDICATED SB CAPE OF 100-300 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE AHEAD OF SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT SAGS SOUTHWARD AND HAVE THEREFORE CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR THUNDER ACROSS THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...DRY AND COOLER WEATHER
EXPECTED TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES CONTINUE TO REMAIN
IN AGREEMENT ON A SHORTWAVE COMING ONSHORE TO THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST ON MONDAY PROPAGATING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE CONSENSUS IS FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH
LESSER COVERAGE NORTH. OVERALL INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL WITH
SEVERE WEATHER NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THEREAFTER...NEAR DAILY
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
COVERAGE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF FORECASTS. OVERALL VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1241 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW WEAKENING FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
STORMS THAT HAVE MOVED INTO W CNTRL AND NW MN THIS MORNING...WITH
EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SE ZONES (SE OTTER TAIL)...WHERE DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CLOUDS HAS GENERATED ONE
SINGLE STORM. SUFFICIENT HEATING HAS ALLOWED IT TOO GROW
SEVERE...BUT ANY MORE STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG OR EAST OF
THIS AREA AS CLOUDS FILL IN THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. PRECIP HAS
DISSIPATED ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN ND...AND WILL REDUCE POPS
CONSIDERABLY FOR THE AFTN HOURS. HAVE ALSO CHOPPED SIGNIFICANTLY
DAYTIME HIGHS AS THE CLOUDS HAVE FILLED IN THE SE ZONES FASTER
THAN ANTICIPATED WHILE THE FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA...WITH
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW UNDERNEATH A THICK CLOUD DECK. TEMPS IN THE
AREA WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE MID 60S AND WARMEST
TEMPS WILL NOW LIKELY BE IN THE FAR NW WHERE IT HAS BEEN CLEAR FOR
SOME TIME AND SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTN...WHEN
SOME CLOUDS CURRENTLY WEST OF MINOT MOVE OVER THE AREA AND COULD
PRODUCE AND ISOLATED STORM OR SHOWER. ALSO DECREASED OVERNIGHT
LOWS AND TOMORROWS HIGHS A DEG OR TWO IN LINE WITH LATEST NAM
GUIDANCE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 906 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOWING CLUSTER OF STORMS AND SHOWERS OVER
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ND MOVING INTO W CNTRL MN. HRRR HAS A
DECENT HANDLE ON STORM TRENDS AND WILL UPDATE POPS (AND INCREASE
IN SE ND) BASED ON ITS GUIDANCE. ALSO MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NW MN BY NOON TIME. SEVERE THREAT TONIGHT WILL
BE VERY DEPENDENT ON WHEN THIS CLUSTER MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN
VALLEY AND OVER THE GRANT CO MN AREA...WHICH WILL INHIBIT HEATING
FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY DESPITE HIGHER BULK SHEAR VALUES
EXPECTED IN THE LATE AFTN. WILL NOT ADDRESS BEYOND 18Z UNTIL MORE
12Z MODEL GUIDANCE COMES IN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
TSRA POTENTIAL TODAY AND TEMPERATURES MAIN CHALLENGES. MODELS
OVERALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SOUTHWARD SAGGING SFC COLD FRONT...ELEVATED BOUNDARY VCNTY
DAKOTAS BORDER REGION AND EASTWARD DRIFTING SFC LOW OVER N CENTRAL
SD ALL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA TODAY.
POSITION OF THESE BOUNDARIES AIDED BY ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER
JET AND MID LEVEL IMPULSES LIFTING NE TARGET THE SOUTHERN FA AS
BEST POTENTIAL FOR PCPN. THIS AFTERNOON THE SFC LOW SHOULD REACH
NE SD WITH BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SE FA. MODEST CAPE AND INSTABILITY
ALONG WITH RESPECTABLE SHEAR COULD RESULT IN A FEW SEVERE STORMS.
APPEARS THE BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH OF THE FA AFT 00Z SO SEVERE WINDOW
MAY BE LIMITED. TEMPERATURES WILL HINGE ON CLOUDS AS BEST PUSH OF
COLD ADVECTION DOESN`T ENTER THE PICTURE TIL LATER TONIGHT.
MOST RAIN SHOULD EXIT THE SE CLOSE TO 06Z. IN ITS WAKE GOOD PUSH
OF COLD ADVECTION WILL SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY MORNING.
COULD SEE SOME UPPER 40 MINIMUMS ACROSS THE NW BY MORNING.
MONDAY WILL BE DRY AND MUCH COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES BLO AVERAGE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S EXPECTED ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTH.
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE PROPAGATING
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AN ASSOCIATED BAND OF MAINLY RAIN
SHOULD GET INTO THE SW FA BY LATE AFTERNOON SPREADING EAST ACROSS
THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT. THUNDER CHANCES LOOK LIMITED WITH THIS
EVENT.
SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH NORTHWEST FLOW INTO
CENTRAL CANADA AND ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN STATES. LONG WAVE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA SHIFTS TO NEAR THE HUDSON BAY
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ZONAL FLOW SHIFT SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE GFS WAS FAST WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THE
GFS WAS ALSO FASTER THAN THE ECMWF THROUGH THU IN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM BUT THE GFS FALLS BACK INTO PHASE WITH THE ECMWF BY FRI AND
SAT. ALSO THE GFS WAS A FARTHER NORTHERN SOLUTION.
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE LAST COUPLE RUNS AND
FARTHER NORTH. WILL BLEND THE TWO MODELS.
HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED A DEGREE FOR WED...LITTLE CHANGE
THU...INCREASED A COUPLE DEGREE IN THE SOUTH FRI, AND INCREASED TWO
TO FIVE DEGREES ON SAT FROM YESTERDAYS FORECAST PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE SHOWERS AND IF THERE WILL BE THUNDER IN
THE SOUTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS ARE MAINLY VFR AND HAVE
MENTIONED SOME MVFR NEAR HEAVIER SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE A CLEARING
TREND WITH VFR CONDITIONS ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT WITH SOME MID CLOUDS
MOVING INTO THE NORTH ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W/NW IN ALL
AREAS BY LATE TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1014 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1014 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY OF
NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. EMBEDDED S/WV RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
MORNING THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN IS PUSHING EAST INTO WESTERN
MINNESOTA. ASSOCIATED RAINFALL AND T-STORMS SHOULD BE MOSTLY DONE
BY 17-18Z ACROSS MY SOUTHEAST AS THIS FEATURES EXITS OFF TO OUR
EAST AND AS THE BOUNDARY MIGRATES TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.
QUASI-ZONAL/CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TODAY AS A DEEP AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. HIGH RES MODELS
INCLUDING THE HRRR AND 4KM NMM WRF GENERATE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE POP 18Z-03Z THEN DRY
AFTERWARDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
MAIN CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE WERE TO ADJUST HOURLY POPS BASED ON
LATEST RADAR TRENDS. BACK EDGE OF PRECIP ACROSS WESTERN ND IS
PROGRESSING FASTER THAN MODELS DEPICTED...SO ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE IS REASONABLE WITH CONTINUING THIS
TREND...EVENTUALLY CLEARING OUR EASTERN CWA BY AROUND 18 OR 19Z.
SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS CONTINUE IN EASTERN MONTANA AND OUR
FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCES ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS SOME INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE AND HRRR GENERATES SOME
LIGHT PRECIP IN THIS AREA LATER IN THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS INVOLVE ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND
TRENDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS TAKING PLACE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94. ONE FAIRLY PERSISTENT LINE OF CONVECTION
HAS BEEN ONGOING FROM SIOUX/GRANT COUNTIES THROUGH EMMONS AND INTO
CENTRAL STUTSMAN. HEAVY RAIN OF 2 TO 3 INCHES IN MANY LOCATIONS
PER RADAR RESULTED IN FLOOD ADVISORIES BEING ISSUED. ANOTHER AREA
OF SHRA/TSRA MOVED INTO SOUTHWESTERN ND AND IS SLOWLY PROGRESSING
EASTWARD...ALTHOUGH THIS AREA IS TAKING ON A MORE STRATIFORM APPEARANCE
ON RADAR WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS PUSH THE WHOLE SYSTEM
EASTWARD...DRYING THE REGION OUT BY 00Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
NAM INDICATED SB CAPE OF 100-300 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE AHEAD OF SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT SAGS SOUTHWARD AND HAVE THEREFORE CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR THUNDER ACROSS THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...DRY AND COOLER WEATHER
EXPECTED TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES CONTINUE TO REMAIN
IN AGREEMENT ON A SHORTWAVE COMING ONSHORE TO THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST ON MONDAY PROPAGATING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE CONSENSUS IS FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH
LESSER COVERAGE NORTH. OVERALL INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL WITH
SEVERE WEATHER NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THEREAFTER...NEAR DAILY
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1014 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ND. MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN VFR
CATEGORY...ALTHOUGH KJMS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CLEAR THE ENTIRE
REGION BY MID EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JNS/NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
906 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 906 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOWING CLUSTER OF STORMS AND SHOWERS OVER
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ND MOVING INTO W CNTRL MN. HRRR HAS A
DECENT HANDLE ON STORM TRENDS AND WILL UPDATE POPS (AND INCREASE
IN SE ND) BASED ON ITS GUIDANCE. ALSO MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NW MN BY NOON TIME. SEVERE THREAT TONIGHT WILL
BE VERY DEPENDENT ON WHEN THIS CLUSTER MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN
VALLEY AND OVER THE GRANT CO MN AREA...WHICH WILL INHIBIT HEATING
FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY DESPITE HIGHER BULK SHEAR VALUES
EXPECTED IN THE LATE AFTN. WILL NOT ADDRESS BEYOND 18Z UNTIL MORE
12Z MODEL GUIDANCE COMES IN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
TSRA POTENTIAL TODAY AND TEMPERATURES MAIN CHALLENGES. MODELS
OVERALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SOUTHWARD SAGGING SFC COLD FRONT...ELEVATED BOUNDARY VCNTY
DAKOTAS BORDER REGION AND EASTWARD DRIFTING SFC LOW OVER N CENTRAL
SD ALL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA TODAY.
POSITION OF THESE BOUNDARIES AIDED BY ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER
JET AND MID LEVEL IMPULSES LIFTING NE TARGET THE SOUTHERN FA AS
BEST POTENTIAL FOR PCPN. THIS AFTERNOON THE SFC LOW SHOULD REACH
NE SD WITH BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SE FA. MODEST CAPE AND INSTABILITY
ALONG WITH RESPECTABLE SHEAR COULD RESULT IN A FEW SEVERE STORMS.
APPEARS THE BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH OF THE FA AFT 00Z SO SEVERE WINDOW
MAY BE LIMITED. TEMPERATURES WILL HINGE ON CLOUDS AS BEST PUSH OF
COLD ADVECTION DOESN`T ENTER THE PICTURE TIL LATER TONIGHT.
MOST RAIN SHOULD EXIT THE SE CLOSE TO 06Z. IN ITS WAKE GOOD PUSH
OF COLD ADVECTION WILL SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY MORNING.
COULD SEE SOME UPPER 40 MINIMUMS ACROSS THE NW BY MORNING.
MONDAY WILL BE DRY AND MUCH COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES BLO AVERAGE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S EXPECTED ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTH.
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE PROPAGATING
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AN ASSOCIATED BAND OF MAINLY RAIN
SHOULD GET INTO THE SW FA BY LATE AFTERNOON SPREADING EAST ACROSS
THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT. THUNDER CHANCES LOOK LIMITED WITH THIS
EVENT.
SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH NORTHWEST FLOW INTO
CENTRAL CANADA AND ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN STATES. LONG WAVE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA SHIFTS TO NEAR THE HUDSON BAY
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ZONAL FLOW SHIFT SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE GFS WAS FAST WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THE
GFS WAS ALSO FASTER THAN THE ECMWF THROUGH THU IN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM BUT THE GFS FALLS BACK INTO PHASE WITH THE ECMWF BY FRI AND
SAT. ALSO THE GFS WAS A FARTHER NORTHERN SOLUTION.
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE LAST COUPLE RUNS AND
FARTHER NORTH. WILL BLEND THE TWO MODELS.
HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED A DEGREE FOR WED...LITTLE CHANGE
THU...INCREASED A COUPLE DEGREE IN THE SOUTH FRI, AND INCREASED TWO
TO FIVE DEGREES ON SAT FROM YESTERDAYS FORECAST PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
BEST BET FOR TSTM OVERNIGHT IS IN FARGO WITH BEST BET FOR SHOWERS
SUNDAY IN FARGO. REST OF TAF SITES GENERALLY DRY...WITH GFK-BJI ON
NRN EDGE OF ANY PRECIP. EXPECT VFR SKIES THRU THE AREA. LIGHT
WINDS GRADUALLY NORTHWEST AS FRONT SLIPS THROUGH.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
637 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
MAIN CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE WERE TO ADJUST HOURLY POPS BASED ON
LATEST RADAR TRENDS. BACK EDGE OF PRECIP ACROSS WESTERN ND IS
PROGRESSING FASTER THAN MODELS DEPICTED...SO ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE IS REASONABLE WITH CONTINUING THIS
TREND...EVENTUALLY CLEARING OUR EASTERN CWA BY AROUND 18 OR 19Z.
SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS CONTINUE IN EASTERN MONTANA AND OUR
FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCES ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS SOME INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE AND HRRR GENERATES SOME
LIGHT PRECIP IN THIS AREA LATER IN THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS INVOLVE ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND
TRENDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS TAKING PLACE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94. ONE FAIRLY PERSISTENT LINE OF CONVECTION
HAS BEEN ONGOING FROM SIOUX/GRANT COUNTIES THROUGH EMMONS AND INTO
CENTRAL STUTSMAN. HEAVY RAIN OF 2 TO 3 INCHES IN MANY LOCATIONS
PER RADAR RESULTED IN FLOOD ADVISORIES BEING ISSUED. ANOTHER AREA
OF SHRA/TSRA MOVED INTO SOUTHWESTERN ND AND IS SLOWLY PROGRESSING
EASTWARD...ALTHOUGH THIS AREA IS TAKING ON A MORE STRATIFORM APPEARANCE
ON RADAR WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS PUSH THE WHOLE SYSTEM
EASTWARD...DRYING THE REGION OUT BY 00Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
NAM INDICATED SB CAPE OF 100-300 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE AHEAD OF SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT SAGS SOUTHWARD AND HAVE THEREFORE CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR THUNDER ACROSS THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...DRY AND COOLER WEATHER
EXPECTED TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES CONTINUE TO REMAIN
IN AGREEMENT ON A SHORTWAVE COMING ONSHORE TO THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST ON MONDAY PROPAGATING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE CONSENSUS IS FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTOMS ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH
LESSER COVERAGE NORTH. OVERALL INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL WITH
SEVERE WEATHER NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THEREAFTER...NEAR DAILY
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL ND...HAVING PUSHED EAST OF KDIK BY 11Z. MOST LOCATIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN VFR CATEGORY...ALTHOUGH KJMS WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE MORNING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL CLEAR THE ENTIRE REGION BY THIS EVENING WITH
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JNS
SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JNS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1153 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
FRONT LOCATED NEAR HALLOCK TO JUST WEST OF GRAND FORKS TO ABOUT
JAMESTOWN. CONVECTION HAS RE-FIRED AS A SUBTLE SHORT WAVE HAS
MOVED NORTHEAST FROM NW SD INTO SCNTRL ND. INCREASED POPS A TAD IN
AREA OF CURRENT ACTIVITY WHICH LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE MID VALLEY
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. THE LATEST CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER IN
DEVELOPING CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE HRRR STILL
DEVELOPS CONVECTION BY 3 PM.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...EXPECT AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COLD FRONT. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE WITH HAIL/WIND...BUT THE LACK OF STRONGER DEEP
LAYERED SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE. THERE WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR STRONGER/PERSISTENT STORMS GIVEN PWATS CLOSE
TO 1.5 INCHES. THE CONVECTION SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST AND
SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH ANY SEVERE THREAT GONE BY 6Z WITH A FAIRLY
WEAK LLJ.
ON SUNDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD AID CONVECTION MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE WILL
BE SOME INSTABILITY AND A BIT MORE SHEAR THAN TODAY...AND THERE IS
A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THE SOUTH.
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...THE CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF THE
SOUTH WITH STABLE/COOLER AIR BUILDING IN.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
ON MONDAY...EXPECT A DRY AND COOL DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.
FOR TUE...RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN IN THE WEST AND SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL MOVE IN BY AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS OR STORMS AFFECTING THE WEST...BUT DEEPER
INSTABILITY/MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR
AREA.
FOR WED THROUGH SAT...THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH A ZONAL
BECOMING NW FLOW PATTER ALOFT AND A CENTRAL PLAINS LOW GENERATING
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA TUE NIGHT INTO
WED. MODELS DIVERGE BEYOND THIS SYSTEM...WITH GFS SHOWING A MORE
AMPLIFIED SW RIDGE PROVIDING A BREAK IN ACTIVITY ON THU. GFS THEN
SHOWS A TRANSITION TO SW FLOW ALOFT AND MORE ACTIVITY DURING THE
END OF THE WEEK. OVERALL MAIN THEME IS AN ACTIVE WEEK WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF BREAKS DUE TO MODEL INCONSISTENCIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
BEST BET FOR TSTM OVERNIGHT IS IN FARGO WITH BEST BET FOR SHOWERS
SUNDAY IN FARGO. REST OF TAF SITES GENERALLY DRY...WITH GFK-BJI ON
NRN EDGE OF ANY PRECIP. EXPECT VFR SKIES THRU THE AREA. LIGHT
WINDS GRADUALLY NORTHWEST AS FRONT SLIPS THROUGH.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/SPEICHER
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1128 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. WARM HUMID AIR MASS OVER THE STATE IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT WILL COMBINE TO SPARK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STORMS
WILL PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
TOUCHED UP FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS ON RADAR AND THE HI
RES MODEL RUNS. LOOKING TO THE WEST CAN SEE THE COMPLEX MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN OH. THE HRRR MOVES THIS INTO CENTRAL PA ABOUT 04Z
AND GRADUALLY WEAKENS IT AS ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
PROBABLY WHAT IS BACK OVER THE CHICAGO AREA. THIS REACHES CENTRAL
PA AFTER 09Z ACCORDING TO THE HRRR. THE 18Z NAM12 RUN FOCUSES MORE
ON PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE STATE. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THERE IS AMBLE MOISTURE AND HIGHER
PWATS WITH THE NEXT BATCH THAT WILL MOVE IN. HENCE THE CONCERN FOR
POTENTIAL FLOODING FOR ANY AREAS GETTING REPEAT STORM CELLS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL LINGER THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDDAY NORTH AND CENTRAL...WHILE THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT
SHIFTS SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. AS UPPER TROF WEAKENS AND MOVES ESE ACROSS THE AREA AND
H5 SHEAR AXIS BECOMES ALIGNED ALONG MASON DIXON LINE BY 00Z WED.
SPC CONTINUES A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PA
TUESDAY...THREAT LIMITED BY WEAKER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...AN
EARLIER EXIT AND LIMITED CAPE. FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH
MIDDAY HOURS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL LOOKING LIKE A BREAK FROM THE STORMY CONDITIONS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF WED.
MORE IN THE WAY OF SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILDS IN FOR THU.
SOME SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...WHICH WILL DETERMINE IF WE
SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF AND STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. EITHER
WAY...DID UP POPS A LITTLE FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR POPS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR TEMPS.
FOR MONDAY...LOOKING LIKE A SLIGHTLY STRONGER COLD FRONT.
SOME SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...THUS WENT WITH RATHER LOW
POPS AND DID NOT GO REAL COLD ON THE TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER WEST CENTRAL PA WILL
SLOWLY MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THESE STORMS WILL BRING VCTS TO JST
AND AOO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE NW...MOST LIKELY AREA FOR CONVECTION LATE
TONIGHT SHIFTS BACK TO THE NW PORTION OF CWA /AND MAY EXTEND INTO
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS ON NOSE OF A LL JET/...BUT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT BFD...JST...AOO AND UNV.
CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS RETURN AS WELL WITH MANY AREAS SLIPPING
BACK TO MVFR TO IFR OVERNIGHT. THESE RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 12Z...IMPROVING BETWEEN 13Z TO 15Z.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH VARYING
RESTRICTIONS IS PROBABLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
OTHERWISE VFR SE...MVFR NW.
OUTLOOK...
WED...PRIMARILY VFR.
THU-SAT...CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR PAZ004>006-
010>012-017-018-024-025-033-034-037-041.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WATSON
NEAR TERM...WATSON/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...WATSON/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1008 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. WARM HUMID AIR MASS OVER THE STATE IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT WILL COMBINE TO SPARK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STORMS
WILL PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
TOUCHED UP FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS ON RADAR AND THE HI
RES MODEL RUNS. LOOKING TO THE WEST CAN SEE THE COMPLEX MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN OH. THE HRRR MOVES THIS INTO CENTRAL PA ABOUT 04Z
AND GRADUALLY WEAKENS IT AS ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
PROBABLY WHAT IS BACK OVER THE CHICAGO AREA. THIS REACHES CENTRAL
PA AFTER 09Z ACCORDING TO THE HRRR. THE 18Z NAM12 RUN FOCUSES MORE
ON PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE STATE. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THERE IS AMBLE MOISTURE AND HIGHER
PWATS WITH THE NEXT BATCH THAT WILL MOVE IN. HENCE THE CONCERN FOR
POTENTIAL FLOODING FOR ANY AREAS GETTING REPEAT STORM CELLS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL LINGER THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDDAY NORTH AND CENTRAL...WHILE THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT
SHIFTS SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. AS UPPER TROF WEAKENS AND MOVES ESE ACROSS THE AREA AND
H5 SHEAR AXIS BECOMES ALIGNED ALONG MASON DIXON LINE BY 00Z WED.
SPC CONTINUES A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PA
TUESDAY...THREAT LIMITED BY WEAKER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...AN
EARLIER EXIT AND LIMITED CAPE. FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH
MIDDAY HOURS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL LOOKING LIKE A BREAK FROM THE STORMY CONDITIONS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF WED.
MORE IN THE WAY OF SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILDS IN FOR THU.
SOME SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...WHICH WILL DETERMINE IF WE
SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF AND STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. EITHER
WAY...DID UP POPS A LITTLE FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR POPS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR TEMPS.
FOR MONDAY...LOOKING LIKE A SLIGHTLY STRONGER COLD FRONT.
SOME SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...THUS WENT WITH RATHER LOW
POPS AND DID NOT GO REAL COLD ON THE TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOST THUNDER IS FADING...THOUGH A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY OVER WEST CENTRAL PA WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST.
AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE NW...MOST LIKELY AREA
FOR CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT SHIFTS BACK TO THE NW PORTION OF CWA
/AND MAY EXTEND INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS ON NOSE OF A LL
JET/...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSS PRETTY MUCH
ANYWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL PA IN MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS. CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS RETURN AS WELL WITH MANY AREAS SLIPPING BACK TO MVFR
TO IFR OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...COLD FRONT. REDUCTIONS LIKELY IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG. OTHERWISE VFR SE...MVFR NW.
WED...PRIMARILY VFR.
THU-SAT...CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR PAZ004>006-
010>012-017-018-024-025-033-034-037-041.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WATSON
NEAR TERM...WATSON/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...WATSON/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
816 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. WARM HUMID AIR MASS OVER THE STATE IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT WILL COMBINE TO SPARK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STORMS
WILL PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
TOUCHED UP FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS ON RADAR AND THE HI
RES MODEL RUNS. LOOKING TO THE WEST CAN SEE THE COMPLEX MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN OH. THE HRRR MOVES THIS INTO CENTRAL PA ABOUT 04Z
AND GRADUALLY WEAKENS IT AS ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
PROBABLY WHAT IS BACK OVER THE CHICAGO AREA. THIS REACHES CENTRAL
PA AFTER 09Z ACCORDING TO THE HRRR. THE 18Z NAM12 RUN FOCUSES MORE
ON PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE STATE. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THERE IS AMBLE MOISTURE AND HIGHER
PWATS WITH THE NEXT BATCH THAT WILL MOVE IN. HENCE THE CONCERN FOR
POTENTIAL FLOODING FOR ANY AREAS GETTING REPEAT STORM CELLS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL LINGER THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDDAY NORTH AND CENTRAL...WHILE THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT
SHIFTS SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. AS UPPER TROF WEAKENS AND MOVES ESE ACROSS THE AREA AND
H5 SHEAR AXIS BECOMES ALIGNED ALONG MASON DIXON LINE BY 00Z WED.
SPC CONTINUES A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PA
TUESDAY...THREAT LIMITED BY WEAKER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...AN
EARLIER EXIT AND LIMITED CAPE. FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH
MIDDAY HOURS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL LOOKING LIKE A BREAK FROM THE STORMY CONDITIONS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF WED.
MORE IN THE WAY OF SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILDS IN FOR THU.
SOME SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...WHICH WILL DETERMINE IF WE
SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF AND STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. EITHER
WAY...DID UP POPS A LITTLE FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR POPS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR TEMPS.
FOR MONDAY...LOOKING LIKE A SLIGHTLY STRONGER COLD FRONT.
SOME SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...THUS WENT WITH RATHER LOW
POPS AND DID NOT GO REAL COLD ON THE TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DIURNALLY DRIVEN TSTMS WILL FADE BY 00-02Z. THEN AS A COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE NW...MOST LIKELY AREA FOR CONVECTION
LATER TONIGHT SHIFTS BACK TO THE NW PORTION OF CWA /AND MAY EXTEND
INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS ON NOSE OF A LL JET/...BUT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSS PRETTY MUCH ANYWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL
PA IN MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS. CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS RETURN AS WELL
WITH MANY AREAS SLIPPING BACK TO MVFR OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...COLD FRONT. REDUCTIONS LIKELY IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG. OTHERWISE VFR SE...MVFR NW.
WED...PRIMARILY VFR.
THU-SAT...CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR PAZ004>006-
010>012-017-018-024-025-033-034-037-041.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WATSON
NEAR TERM...WATSON/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...WATSON/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...CERU
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
MCS HAS MOSTLY LEFT A STABLE ENVIRONMENT IN ITS WAKE...THOUGH A WEAK
FRONT PERSISTS NEAR KATY. HRRR INDICATES A FEW CELLS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THIS FEATURE...BUT WITH A LESS THEN 1000 J/KG CAPE AND WEAK
SHEAR...EXPECT MOST CELLS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN TONIGHT WITH COOL/DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM
CANADA/NORTH DAKOTA. WE COULD SEE A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS MOVE INTO
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA MONDAY...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE DRY BELOW
10KFT. FOCUS SHIFTS TO TUESDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH A WEAK MCS MOVING OVER THE
CWA...THOUGH WITH VERY LITTLE CAPE EXCEPT ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY TUESDAY EVENING. A 40KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT WEAK
CONVECTION/RAIN AS IT PROPAGATES WEST TUESDAY NIGHT. SREF
PROBABILITIES OF 1 INCH OF MOISTURE IS AS HIGH AS 30 PERCENT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY UNTIL
FRIDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. AS FAR AS THE SURFACE
PATTERN GOES...THERE IS SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS WITH THE TIMING OF FEATURES. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
EASTERN CWA WHEN THE PERIOD STARTS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO KEEP CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO RETURN THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...THEN WILL SEE AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES ACROSS THE CWA. GFS CURRENTLY SHOWING CAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 4000 J/KG FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO COULD
SEE A DECENT SHOT AT SEVERE WEATHER. LINGERING SHOWERS SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE MOVING BACK IN LATE IN THE DAY
SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY IN PLACE...SHOULD PERSIST AS THE PREVAILING
FLIGHT CATEGORY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LATER THIS MORNING WHILE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN AND WINDS GO LIGHT UNDER A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY...CANNOT RULE OUT A TEMPORARY SUB-VFR PERIOD OF
PRE-SUNRISE FOG AT OR NEAR ANY OF THE TERMINALS.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...TDK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ABERDEEN SD
331 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
MCS HAS MOSTLY LEFT A STABLE ENVIRONMENT IN ITS WAKE...THOUGH A WEAK
FRONT PERSISTS NEAR KATY. HRRR INDICATES A FEW CELLS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THIS FEATURE...BUT WITH A LESS THEN 1000 J/KG CAPE AND WEAK
SHEAR...EXPECT MOST CELLS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN TONIGHT WITH COOL/DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM
CANADA/NORTH DAKOTA. WE COULD SEE A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS MOVE INTO
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA MONDAY...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE DRY BELOW
10KFT. FOCUS SHIFTS TO TUESDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH A WEAK MCS MOVING OVER THE
CWA...THOUGH WITH VERY LITTLE CAPE EXCEPT ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY TUESDAY EVENING. A 40KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT WEAK
CONVECTION/RAIN AS IT PROPAGATES WEST TUESDAY NIGHT. SREF
PROBABILITIES OF 1 INCH OF MOISTURE IS AS HIGH AS 30 PERCENT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY UNTIL
FRIDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. AS FAR AS THE SURFACE
PATTERN GOES...THERE IS SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS WITH THE TIMING OF FEATURES. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
EASTERN CWA WHEN THE PERIOD STARTS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO KEEP CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO RETURN THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...THEN WILL SEE AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES ACROSS THE CWA. GFS CURRENTLY SHOWING CAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 4000 J/KG FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO COULD
SEE A DECENT SHOT AT SEVERE WEATHER. LINGERING SHOWERS SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE MOVING BACK IN LATE IN THE DAY
SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
FOR THE MOST PART...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1237 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
WATCHING SOME ENERGY EMBEDDED IN AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WORK
ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA/NORTHERN WYOMING AT THIS TIME. OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...HAVE SEEN SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OUT ACROSS SAID AREA...PERHAPS OFFERING A BIT OF
CONFIDENCE TO THE CONVECTION FORECAST TREND THE HRRR HAS BEEN
CONSISTENTLY GENERATING OVER THE PAST 5 HOURS...OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE AS EVERYTHING
SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS LATE TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. DID GO AHEAD AND NUDGE POPS UP A FEW HOURS LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MARCHING LIKELY POPS QUICKLY
ACROSS THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST. ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOT MUCH
CONVECTION OUT THERE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SODAK RIGHT NOW...WILL
LEAVE THE CHC/SLT CHC POPS GOING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS
THAT IS WHERE THE GREATEST /ALBEIT WEAK/ LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/FORCING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RESIDES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
WEAK STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO FIRE ALONG THE FRONT IN WESTERN CORSON
ALREADY...HOWEVER MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN NORTH
DAKOTA WHERE THERE IS BETTER SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND FLOW ALOFT.
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS IN LINE WITH THIS REALITY...FOCUSING
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION ACROSS THE BORDER IN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
A WEAK WAVE WILL PASS OVERHEAD TONIGHT...FOLLOWING THE NORTH/SOUTH
DAKOTA STATE LINE. ALL THE LATEST RUNS OF THE ARW/NMM/HRRR/ABRWRF
GENERATE CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE DESPITE A LACK OF A
DISCERNIBLE LOW LEVEL JET...AND WILL LIKELY PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR POPS. AS THE WAVE PASSES EAST...SHIFTING THE FRONT
SOUTHWARDS...DAYTIME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WILL RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. THERE WILL BE AROUND 2000 J/KG MLCAPE
AVAILABLE...HOWEVER PROFILES LACK LOW/MID LEVEL SHEAR WITH MAINLY
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT....AND WE ALSO LACK A DISCERNIBLE WAVE ALOFT.
HIGH RES GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS ORGANIZED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...THOUGH GIVEN CAPE...COULD STILL DEVELOP A
SEVERE STORM OR TWO WITH A LOCALIZED WIND/HAIL THREAT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY...AND
PROVIDE FOR MAINLY STABLE/DRY CONDITIONS IN NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FEATURE MAINLY ZONAL FLOW THROUGHOUT
THE LONG TERM PERIOD. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE ONLY SHORTWAVES TO
AFFECT THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WILL SEE A DECENT CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE. MODELS THEN BEGIN TO SHOW BIG
DIFFERENCES IN THE SURFACE PATTERN AS THE GFS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING IN AND KEEPING THE AREA DRY FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF BRINGS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS THEN QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS THEN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A
DECENT POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE
SECOND SHORTWAVE AND A RETURN TO DRIER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. AS
USUAL THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE SUPERBLEND IS SATURATED WITH POPS
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HAVE TRIED TO TEMPER THEM BACK SOME
WHERE THE POTENTIAL IS THERE TO SEE DRY CONDITIONS.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO BE THE RULE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
TAFS CONTINUE TO BE VFR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEY ALSO CONTINUE
TO CARRY A TREND OF PRECIP MENTION EARLY THIS MORNING INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF CONDITIONS BRIEFLY
FALL INTO IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...TDK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
926 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
.UPDATE...
925 PM KNQA RADAR SHOWED DISSIPATED SHOWERS OVER NORTH MS...WHILE
WEST OF THE MS RIVER...A LONE SHOWER WAS NOTED AT GILMORE AR.
01Z HRRR MODEL DEPICTED LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL SHOWER POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS STABLE UNDER THE
RELATIVELY WARM MIDLEVEL TEMPS. 00Z NAM SHOWS A SIMILAR SOLUTION.
A FORTHCOMING UPDATE WILL FEATURE REDUCED RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ON
TRACK AT MIDEVENING.
PWB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE MUCH LIKE THE PAST
SEVERAL...WARM AND HUMID WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
ONE COULD SAY THE NEXT 30 OR 60 DAYS WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR AS
WELL...ITS SUMMER. THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS
EAST ARKANSAS...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STORM COULD POP UP VIRTUALLY
ANYWHERE. THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT OF THIS UPDATE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
IMPACT FROM A TROPICAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
SYNOPTICALLY A BROAD VERTICALLY STACKED SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER
RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC STATES.
THIS SETUP PUTS THE MIDSOUTH ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER TO OUR NORTH AND WEST AND THE HOTTER...BUT DRIER
WEATHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THIS PATTERN REALLY ISN`T EXPECTED
TO CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE
SHOULD WEAKEN A BIT...LIKELY RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH. FARTHER SOUTH IN THE GULF...ALL
EYES ARE FOCUSED ON A DEVELOPING TROPICAL SYSTEM...LIKELY TO
BECOME OUR SECOND NAMED TROPICAL STORM OF THE YEAR. THIS SYSTEM
COULD BECOME A MAJOR PLAYER IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDSOUTH BY
WEDNESDAY. CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS TAKES IT INSHORE NEAR HOUSTON
ACROSS DALLAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA...THEN ARCING TO THE NORTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI. IF THIS SOLUTION VERIFIES...WE COULD SEE
CONDITIONS AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MORE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WESTERN AND POSSIBLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTH. IF IT SHIFTS FARTHER
WEST...THE ENTIRE AREA COULD BE INFLUENCED BY SUBSIDENCE ON THE
OUTSKIRTS OF THE STORM RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AREA WIDE. IF
ITS TRACK SHIFTS FARTHER EAST...WIDESPREAD RAIN WOULD BE MORE
LIKELY AREA WIDE. STORM INTENSITY WOULD ALSO PLAY A
ROLL...ALTHOUGH NOT AS BIG AS THE TRACK. GUIDANCE VARIES BY AS
MUCH AS 24 HOURS FOR LANDFALL AND WHEN IT WOULD HAVE ITS GREATEST
IMPACT ON THE MIDSOUTH. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE STORM SHOULD BE
TOO FAR EAST TO PLAY MUCH OF A ROLE IN THE MIDSOUTH. THE UPPER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ZONAL. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...HIGHS NEAR 90 WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S...AND NEAR
NORMAL 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED.
30
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DO NOT EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT ANY TERMINAL THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW...BEST CHANCE FOR VCTS EXISTS AT JBR AFTER 20Z
WITH ALL OTHER TERMINALS ESCAPING THE ACTIVITY. WINDS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH.
TVT
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1221 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015/
DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS/WSR-88D VAD WIND
PROFILES PLACE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES AND A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS
MORNING. AS OF 10 AM CDT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
REGIONAL WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS ALREADY INDICATING SOME WARM
ADVECTION RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS.
LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS STILL INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID SOUTH INTO THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OCCURRING ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. OVERALL FORECAST IS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE AND NO
UPDATES ANTICIPATED AT THIS MOMENT.
CJC
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015/
DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. IS
EXTENDING ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE MIDSOUTH. QUIET ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPS RANGE FROM 70 TO 75 WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS.
TODAY...SIMILAR TO SATURDAY. EXPECTING SOME LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
THIS MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE BY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS CLIMBING TO AROUND 90. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE
SHOULD BE GREATEST ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS AND LESSER TOWARD THE
TN RIVER. THE HRRR SHOWS A SCENARIO SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH A
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE LOWER
MS VALLEY LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING...A LITTLE FURTHER WEST
THAN SATURDAYS ACTIVITY...PROBABLY DUE TO SLIGHTLY STRONGER UPPER
RIDGE. A STRONG STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
TONIGHT...BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION DURING THE EVENING WILL BE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER. MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WILL
DISSIPATE BY MID EVENING WITH ANOTHER MILD NIGHT ON TAP. LOWS 70
TO 75.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE ACROSS
THE REGION SO AFTERNOON/EVENING COVERAGE SHOULD BE A LITTLE LESS.
BEST CHANCES WILL BE AT THE NW EDGES OF THE FORECAST AREAS WHILE
LOCATIONS NEAR THE TN RIVER AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WILL BE
MOSTLY RAINFREE. HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN
RESPONSE TO THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER RIDGE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS DEALING
WITH THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE WESTERN GULF. THE
NAM BRINGS THE SYSTEM THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS AND AND INTO SOUTHERN
MISSOURI TUESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE THE GFS BRINGS IT FURTHER WEST
INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS AND EVENTUALLY TRACKS IT INTO THE MIDSOUTH ON
THU. THE ECMWF IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR THOUGH A LITTLE SLOWER. AS A
RESULT THE FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN SINCE THIS FEATURE WILL
PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN PRECIP CHANCES BY MIDDLE INTO THE END
OF THE WEEK. FOR NOW DISCOUNTED THE FAST NAM AND WILL GO WITH A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. WARM...MOSTLY LOWER
90S...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS NW SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
EXPECT THIS SYSTEM TO INFLUENCE THE MIDSOUTH MORE TOWARD THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AND WENT WITH CHANCE POPS AREAWIDE. CERTAINLY COULD BE
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM AS MODEL PWS ARE GREATER
THAN 2 INCHES AS IT MOVES THROUGH. TEMPS THU/FRI SHOULD BE A
LITTLE COOLER WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODELS HAVE THE SYSTEM EXITING THE REGION BY
THE WEEKEND SO EXPECT A RETURN TO MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION WITH DIMINISHING COVERAGE. TEMPS CLIMBING BACK INTO
THE 90S.
SJM
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS
MOST RAIN/STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MS RIVER...ALTHOUGH MKL COULD SEE SOME LATE AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT
AS WELL. WILL CARRY VCSH THEN VCTS THIS AFTERNOON AT JBR...MEM AND
MKL...WITH PRECIP ENDING A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNSET. WILL ONLY
REINTRODUCE VCSH TOMORROW AT JBR. MKL...TUP AND MEM SHOULD REMAIN
RAIN FREE. WINDS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-15KT.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1024 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS/WSR-88D VAD WIND
PROFILES PLACE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES AND A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS
MORNING. AS OF 10 AM CDT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
REGIONAL WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS ALREADY INDICATING SOME WARM
ADVECTION RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS.
LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS STILL INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID SOUTH INTO THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OCCURRING ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. OVERALL FORECAST IS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE AND NO
UPDATES ANTICIPATED AT THIS MOMENT.
CJC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015/
DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. IS
EXTENDING ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE MIDSOUTH. QUIET ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPS RANGE FROM 70 TO 75 WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS.
TODAY...SIMILAR TO SATURDAY. EXPECTING SOME LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
THIS MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE BY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS CLIMBING TO AROUND 90. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE
SHOULD BE GREATEST ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS AND LESSER TOWARD THE
TN RIVER. THE HRRR SHOWS A SCENARIO SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH A
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE LOWER
MS VALLEY LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING...A LITTLE FURTHER WEST
THAN SATURDAYS ACTIVITY...PROBABLY DUE TO SLIGHTLY STRONGER UPPER
RIDGE. A STRONG STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
TONIGHT...BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION DURING THE EVENING WILL BE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER. MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WILL
DISSIPATE BY MID EVENING WITH ANOTHER MILD NIGHT ON TAP. LOWS 70
TO 75.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE ACROSS
THE REGION SO AFTERNOON/EVENING COVERAGE SHOULD BE A LITTLE LESS.
BEST CHANCES WILL BE AT THE NW EDGES OF THE FORECAST AREAS WHILE
LOCATIONS NEAR THE TN RIVER AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WILL BE
MOSTLY RAINFREE. HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN
RESPONSE TO THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER RIDGE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS DEALING
WITH THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE WESTERN GULF. THE
NAM BRINGS THE SYSTEM THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS AND AND INTO SOUTHERN
MISSOURI TUESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE THE GFS BRINGS IT FURTHER WEST
INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS AND EVENTUALLY TRACKS IT INTO THE MIDSOUTH ON
THU. THE ECMWF IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR THOUGH A LITTLE SLOWER. AS A
RESULT THE FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN SINCE THIS FEATURE WILL
PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN PRECIP CHANCES BY MIDDLE INTO THE END
OF THE WEEK. FOR NOW DISCOUNTED THE FAST NAM AND WILL GO WITH A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. WARM...MOSTLY LOWER
90S...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS NW SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
EXPECT THIS SYSTEM TO INFLUENCE THE MIDSOUTH MORE TOWARD THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AND WENT WITH CHANCE POPS AREAWIDE. CERTAINLY COULD BE
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM AS MODEL PWS ARE GREATER
THAN 2 INCHES AS IT MOVES THROUGH. TEMPS THU/FRI SHOULD BE A
LITTLE COOLER WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODELS HAVE THE SYSTEM EXITING THE REGION BY
THE WEEKEND SO EXPECT A RETURN TO MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION WITH DIMINISHING COVERAGE. TEMPS CLIMBING BACK INTO
THE 90S.
SJM
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS
PATCHY STRATUS CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL YIELD OCCASIONAL IFR/MVFR
CIGS WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING AT MEM...JBR AND MKL. OTHERWISE CIGS
WILL BE MAINLY VFR WITH BEST THREAT FOR VCTS AT MEM AND JBR LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVENING. SOUTH WINDS NOT AS STRONG
TODAY WITH HIGHEST GUSTS AT JBR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
JAB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
621 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. IS
EXTENDING ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE MIDSOUTH. QUIET ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPS RANGE FROM 70 TO 75 WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS.
TODAY...SIMILAR TO SATURDAY. EXPECTING SOME LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
THIS MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE BY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS CLIMBING TO AROUND 90. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE
SHOULD BE GREATEST ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS AND LESSER TOWARD THE
TN RIVER. THE HRRR SHOWS A SCENARIO SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH A
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE LOWER
MS VALLEY LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING...A LITTLE FURTHER WEST
THAN SATURDAYS ACTIVITY...PROBABLY DUE TO SLIGHTLY STRONGER UPPER
RIDGE. A STRONG STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
TONIGHT...BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION DURING THE EVENING WILL BE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER. MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WILL
DISSIPATE BY MID EVENING WITH ANOTHER MILD NIGHT ON TAP. LOWS 70
TO 75.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE ACROSS
THE REGION SO AFTERNOON/EVENING COVERAGE SHOULD BE A LITTLE LESS.
BEST CHANCES WILL BE AT THE NW EDGES OF THE FORECAST AREAS WHILE
LOCATIONS NEAR THE TN RIVER AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WILL BE
MOSTLY RAINFREE. HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN
RESPONSE TO THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER RIDGE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS DEALING
WITH THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE WESTERN GULF. THE
NAM BRINGS THE SYSTEM THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS AND AND INTO SOUTHERN
MISSOURI TUESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE THE GFS BRINGS IT FURTHER WEST
INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS AND EVENTUALLY TRACKS IT INTO THE MIDSOUTH ON
THU. THE ECMWF IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR THOUGH A LITTLE SLOWER. AS A
RESULT THE FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN SINCE THIS FEATURE WILL
PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN PRECIP CHANCES BY MIDDLE INTO THE END
OF THE WEEK. FOR NOW DISCOUNTED THE FAST NAM AND WILL GO WITH A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. WARM...MOSTLY LOWER
90S...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS NW SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
EXPECT THIS SYSTEM TO INFLUENCE THE MIDSOUTH MORE TOWARD THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AND WENT WITH CHANCE POPS AREAWIDE. CERTAINLY COULD BE
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM AS MODEL PWS ARE GREATER
THAN 2 INCHES AS IT MOVES THROUGH. TEMPS THU/FRI SHOULD BE A
LITTLE COOLER WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODELS HAVE THE SYSTEM EXITING THE REGION BY
THE WEEKEND SO EXPECT A RETURN TO MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION WITH DIMINISHING COVERAGE. TEMPS CLIMBING BACK INTO
THE 90S.
SJM
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS
PATCHY STRATUS CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL YIELD OCCASIONAL IFR/MVFR
CIGS WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING AT MEM...JBR AND MKL. OTHERWISE CIGS
WILL BE MAINLY VFR WITH BEST THREAT FOR VCTS AT MEM AND JBR LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVENING. SOUTH WINDS NOT AS STRONG
TODAY WITH HIGHEST GUSTS AT JBR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
JAB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
411 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. IS
EXTENDING ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE MIDSOUTH. QUIET ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPS RANGE FROM 70 TO 75 WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS.
TODAY...SIMILAR TO SATURDAY. EXPECTING SOME LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
THIS MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE BY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS CLIMBING TO AROUND 90. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE
SHOULD BE GREATEST ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS AND LESSER TOWARD THE
TN RIVER. THE HRRR SHOWS A SCENARIO SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH A
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE LOWER
MS VALLEY LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING...A LITTLE FURTHER WEST
THAN SATURDAYS ACTIVITY...PROBABLY DUE TO SLIGHTLY STRONGER UPPER
RIDGE. A STRONG STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
TONIGHT...BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION DURING THE EVENING WILL BE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER. MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WILL
DISSIPATE BY MID EVENING WITH ANOTHER MILD NIGHT ON TAP. LOWS 70
TO 75.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE ACROSS
THE REGION SO AFTERNOON/EVENING COVERAGE SHOULD BE A LITTLE LESS.
BEST CHANCES WILL BE AT THE NW EDGES OF THE FORECAST AREAS WHILE
LOCATIONS NEAR THE TN RIVER AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WILL BE
MOSTLY RAINFREE. HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN
RESPONSE TO THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER RIDGE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS DEALING
WITH THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE WESTERN GULF. THE
NAM BRINGS THE SYSTEM THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS AND AND INTO SOUTHERN
MISSOURI TUESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE THE GFS BRINGS IT FURTHER WEST
INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS AND EVENTUALLY TRACKS IT INTO THE MIDSOUTH ON
THU. THE ECMWF IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR THOUGH A LITTLE SLOWER. AS A
RESULT THE FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN SINCE THIS FEATURE WILL
PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN PRECIP CHANCES BY MIDDLE INTO THE END
OF THE WEEK. FOR NOW DISCOUNTED THE FAST NAM AND WILL GO WITH A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. WARM...MOSTLY LOWER
90S...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS NW SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
EXPECT THIS SYSTEM TO INFLUENCE THE MIDSOUTH MORE TOWARD THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AND WENT WITH CHANCE POPS AREAWIDE. CERTAINLY COULD BE
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM AS MODEL PWS ARE GREATER
THAN 2 INCHES AS IT MOVES THROUGH. TEMPS THU/FRI SHOULD BE A
LITTLE COOLER WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODELS HAVE THE SYSTEM EXITING THE REGION BY
THE WEEKEND SO EXPECT A RETURN TO MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION WITH DIMINISHING COVERAGE. TEMPS CLIMBING BACK INTO
THE 90S.
SJM
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS
PERSISTENCE LIKELY THE BEST FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS AND SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY. EXPECT A SCT/BKN
MVFR DECK TOWARD 12Z...WHICH SHOULD MIX OUT WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
00Z NAM MODEL DEPICTED LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON TSRA MOVING NORTH
THROUGH NW MS TOWARD MEM IN THE EARLY EVENING... IN SIMILAR
FASHION TO WHAT OCCURRED THIS EVENING.
SJM
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1130 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 935 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015/
UPDATE...
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED NORTH THIS EVENING ALTERED THE
SURFACE TEMPERATURE FIELD SIGNIFICANTLY...THEREFORE MAIN CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST WERE TO UPDATE TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND PRECIP
CHANCES OVERNIGHT.
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...LOWERED PRECIP CHANCES TO SLIGHT
CHANCE AS ATMOSPHERE IS LARGELY TURNED OVER. A ROGUE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
EXTREMELY ISOLATED. LOWS IN THE LOW AND MIDDLE 70S ARE FORECAST AS
A HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE.
TVT
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015/
DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON STILL
INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...A
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND A SUBTLE BUT
WEAK SHORTWAVE NEAR THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST. REGIONAL WSR-88D
RADAR TRENDS INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER A
GOOD PORTION OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE SOUTH OF I-20 AND ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. AS OF 2 PM CDT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ARE IN
THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE
LOWER 80S DUE TO RAIN COOLED AIR.
LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR INDICATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARM AGAIN
WITH MOST READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS
EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY. NONETHELESS...A
CONTINUATION OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WITH THE BEST CHANCES OCCURRING MAINLY WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
AXIS.
LATEST MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY NEAR
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL DRIFT NORTHWEST TOWARDS TEXAS BY MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY AND MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MIDDLE/LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS TOWARDS LATE NEXT WEEK. SOME MODEL RUN TO RUN
DISCONTINUITY EXISTS BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF WITH THE HANDLING OF
THESE TROPICAL REMNANTS AND HAVE BLENDED TOWARDS LOWER CHANCE POPS
FOR NOW UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. BEST WILL
CONTINUE TO BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS EACH
DAY COINCIDENT WITH DAYTIME HEATING. AFTERNOON HIGHS EACH DAY WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S.
CJC
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS
PERSISTENCE LIKELY THE BEST FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS AND SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY. EXPECT A SCT/BKN
MVFR DECK TOWARD 12Z...WHICH SHOULD MIX OUT WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
00Z NAM MODEL DEPICTED LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON TSRA MOVING NORTH
THROUGH NW MS TOWARD MEM IN THE EARLY EVENING... IN SIMILAR
FASHION TO WHAT OCCURRED THIS EVENING.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
330 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...AS DISCUSSED IN THE
MORNING UPDATE...RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CENTRAL CWA...NEAR
SAN ANTONIO IN AN ENHANCED AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE AND DE-STABILIZATION. RICH INFLUX OF HIGH PWAT IS
RESULTING IN HIGH RAINFALL RATES...ALONG WITH SOME TRAINING OF
STORMS NOW ACROSS BEXAR COUNTY. THE PAST SEVERAL HRRR RUNS HAVE
BEEN HANDLING THE TRENDS GENERALLY WELL...WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA...ALONG AND EAST OF A BURNET TO SAN
ANTONIO LINE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. WILL ALLOW THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING HOURS TO BE SAFE.
FARTHER WEST...A FEW MODELS ARE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS COMING OUT OF WEST TEXAS AND NORTHERN
MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
HAVE MENTIONED AGAIN SOME HIGHER POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
FAR WESTERN CWA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE MENTIONED AGAIN EAST OF I-35. LOCALIZED
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
...ALL EYES ON THE GULF OF MEXICO AND POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM...
...HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT AND FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
FORECAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM.
A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFF THE YUCATAN AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. AS OF SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WAS GIVING THE SYSTEM A 70
PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...AND A RECON
FLIGHT WAS ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT OF STEERING THE SYSTEM NORTHWEST THROUGH THE GULF
OF MEXICO...AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S...TOWARDS TEXAS BY TUESDAY. GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY
CLUSTERED AROUND A LANDFALL ALONG THE MID TO UPPER TEXAS COAST.
THERE HAS BEEN SOME WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
AND MEAN WITH THE TRACK. ADDITIONALLY...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
IN THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM...WITH THE ECMWF NOW SLOWER WITH THE
SYSTEM THROUGH THE EASTERN CWA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. ADDITIONAL
CHANGES IN THE TRACK/SPEED ARE LIKELY FROM MODELS OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS UNTIL THE SYSTEM CLOSES OFF.
FOLLOWING A CONSENSUS APPROACH...WPC/NHC COORDINATION...AND
ALLOWING FOR SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR ANY WESTWARD SHIFT...WE ARE
SHOWING LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
BEGINNING AS EARLY AS TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...AND
INTO THE CENTRAL CWA...I-35 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN HILL COUNTRY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY WE ARE
FORECASTING 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6+ INCHES ALONG
AND EAST OF A GEORGETOWN TO KARNES CITY LINE. GIVEN THE HEAVY
RAINFALL THAT HAS FALLEN THE LAST MONTH...AND ESPECIALLY THE LAST
24 HOURS ACROSS THESE AREAS...ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN HIGH IMPACT FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING.
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE CWA FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
IT SHOULD CONTINUED TO BE STRESSED...ADDITIONAL SHIFTS IN THE
TRACK AND ORGANIZATION COULD LIKELY RESULT IN LARGE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST WETTER OR DRIER. PLEASE STAY CLOSELY TUNED TO THE
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE DOES LINGER OVER THE CWA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY ALONG WITH A WEAKNESS ALOFT. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS. POSSIBLE DRYING
TAKES PLACE NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 73 88 73 85 73 / 30 50 40 70 70
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 72 87 73 84 73 / 30 50 40 80 70
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 73 89 74 87 73 / 30 50 40 70 70
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 72 87 72 83 71 / 30 40 30 70 60
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 76 91 75 91 75 / 40 10 20 30 30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 72 87 72 83 72 / 30 50 40 70 70
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 74 90 73 88 73 / 20 30 20 50 50
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 72 88 73 85 73 / 30 50 40 70 70
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 73 87 74 84 74 / 40 60 60 80 80
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 75 89 75 87 75 / 30 40 30 60 60
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 74 90 75 88 74 / 30 40 30 60 60
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
ATASCOSA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...COMAL...
DE WITT...FAYETTE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...
KENDALL...LAVACA...LEE...TRAVIS...WILLIAMSON...WILSON.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TREADWAY
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...RUNYEN
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
102 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.UPDATE...
STORMS LOOK TO REMAIN DELAYED FOR THE MOST PART UNTIL THIS EVENING
AS INITIALLY DISCRETE CELLS IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND EASTERN NEW
MEXICO FORM INTO A MESOSCALE COMPLEX/LINE AND SWEEP ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS REGION. CAPE VALUES WILL BE INCREASING TO OR ABOVE
2000 J/KG ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS WITH GOOD SOLAR INSOLATION
TAKING PLACE. WIND FIELDS REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK...BUT AN ENHANCED
BELT OF MID LEVEL WESTERLIES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THIS EVENING COULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
AMPLE SHEAR SUPPORTING INITIAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO QUICKLY MORPH INTO THE ABOVE MENTIONED COMPLEX/LINE
WITH ARRIVAL OF STRONGER UPPER FORCING THIS EVENING. QUARTER SIZE
HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS.
&&
.AVIATION...
KCDS CONTINUES TO SIT IN THE MIDDLE OF A POCKET OF LOW STRATUS
PRODUCING MVFR CEILINGS...BUT EXPECT THIS TO MIX OUT AND LIFT
WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH FURTHER DIURNAL HEATING. A
LINE/COMPLEX OF STORMS LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH ONCE AGAIN THIS
EVENING...MATERIALIZING FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. HAVE
MAINTAINED TEMPO GROUPS FOR ALL THREE SITES WITH IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS INCLUDED. ALL SITES WILL ALSO SEE THE THREAT FOR MVFR
CEILINGS OR POTENTIALLY LOWER LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS
ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING/PLACEMENT WILL PRECLUDE FURTHER MENTION AT THIS TIME.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015/
SHORT TERM...
WIDESPREAD CLOUD DEBRIS FROM LAST NIGHT/S MCS WAS UNDERGOING
GRADUAL EROSION THIS MORNING FROM W-E. DESPITE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
SOUTH OF A WEAK CLOSED LOW...ADDITIONAL ATTEMPTS AT PRECIP HAVE
BEEN SUPPRESSED BY OVERWHELMING SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE
LARGE MCS. NEAR-TERM QPF ON ALL 00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS WAS VASTLY
OVERDONE IN COVERAGE WITH ALMOST NO SEMBLANCE OF THE MCS WHICH
CONTINUES TO OUR EAST AT 08Z...SO THE PRECIP FORECAST BENEFITS
FROM A HEAVY DOSE OF THE MORE REALISTIC HRRR AND VARIOUS
EXPERIMENTAL WRF MODELS.
POPS THRU 18Z HAVE BEEN DROPPED OVER MOST AREAS AS SUFFICIENT LIFT
IS JUST NOT IN THE CARDS. THIS THEME SHOULD CHANGE LATER TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS A TRAILING VORT LOBE ROTATES SEWD ACROSS THE
REGION SOUTHWEST OF A 700-500MB LOW. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT APPEARS
TO FAVOR THE WESTERN PANHANDLE NEAR THE VORT CENTER WITH
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH IN EASTERN NM.
MUCH OF OUR FOCUS WILL BE ON THE FORMER AS THE MID-LEVEL FLOW
VEERS FROM W TO NW. CAPE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE FORECAST TO BE
EVEN LESS THAN YESTERDAY...BUT VALUES ARE STILL SUFFICIENT TO
FOSTER SOME PULSY SEVERE EVENTS ESPECIALLY IF OUTFLOWS CONSOLIDATE
AND GIVE RISE TO ANOTHER NOCTURNAL MCS AS IS PROGGED BY MOST
EXPERIMENTAL WRF RUNS. POPS WERE RAMPED UP TO HIGH LIKELIES THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT WE/LL RESTRICT THE SEVERE WIND AND
HAIL MENTION TO THE HWO AS THESE THREATS LOOK TO BE VERY ISOLATED
AND MORE MARGINAL THAN RECENT DAYS.
LONG TERM...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE DURING THE DAY MONDAY BUT DIFFER ON HOW FAR SOUTH IT
WILL MAKE IT. SINCE THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE SOME LOW LEVEL LIFT
AND CONVERGENCE...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
OUTFLOW FROM THE STORMS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PUSH THE FRONT FURTHER
SOUTH INTO OUR AREA BUT THE TREND OF LOWERING THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR AVAILABLE WILL CONTINUE. ALSO IMPACTING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON MONDAY WILL BE HOW THE POSSIBLE NOCTURNAL
MCS MENTIONED ABOVE DEVELOPS. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE
FOR THE CAPROCK WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT BUT WILL NOT PUT MENTION OF SEVERE IN AT THIS TIME.
TUESDAY IS A BIT TRICKY FOR POPS AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A
WEAK CLOSED LOW OR TROF AXIS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE REMNANT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE IN THE REGION. THE FRONT DOES LOOK TO
MIX OUT AND RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL BRING
SLIGHTLY HIGHER SURFACE MOISTURE LEVELS BACK INTO PLAY. HOWEVER...
SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN RATHER WEAK AND MAX CAPE VALUES REMAIN AT OR
UNDER 1000 J/KG SO SEVERE THREAT LOOK LOW. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
GOING THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY BUT IT APPEARS THAT WE SHOULD
FINALLY START TO DRY OUT AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES DROP BY TUESDAY
NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN LOW FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST AS WE STAY ON THE EAST SIDE OF AN ELONGATED
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THERE ARE SOME HINTS
THAT A FEW SHORTWAVES COULD RIDE AROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND
MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA IN WEAK NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WHICH COULD BRING A FEW EVENINGS OF ISOLATED STORMS. THERE
REMAINS TOO MUCH VARIABILITY TO FAVOR ANY ONE DAY OVER ANOTHER FOR
INCREASED POPS MID TO LATE WEEK BUT IT APPEARS THAT BOTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY COULD BOTH SEE SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BEFORE FINALLY WARMING BACK UP FOR THE LAST HALF OF THIS FORECAST
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS A BIT OVER THE AREA. RECENT RAINFALL WILL HELP
TO KEEP THINGS FROM HEATING UP TOO FAST BUT THE FLIP SIDE WILL BE
SOME PRETTY MUGGY AFTERNOONS LATE WEEK. ONLY OTHER THING TO WATCH
WILL BE A POSSIBLE COLD FRONT FOR THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
THAT COULD BRING A RETURN OF POPS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING THIS AS A
POSSIBILITY...WILL WATCH AND SEE HOW THE NEXT SEVERAL RUNS EVOLVE
BEFORE MAKING MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
JORDAN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 62 80 61 82 / 70 50 40 30
TULIA 63 80 63 80 / 70 50 50 40
PLAINVIEW 64 80 63 80 / 70 50 50 40
LEVELLAND 65 81 63 83 / 60 50 40 30
LUBBOCK 66 82 64 82 / 70 50 40 40
DENVER CITY 64 82 63 85 / 40 40 40 30
BROWNFIELD 65 82 64 84 / 60 50 40 30
CHILDRESS 68 83 68 85 / 70 60 60 50
SPUR 66 82 65 83 / 70 60 40 50
ASPERMONT 69 87 68 86 / 70 60 40 50
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1240 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.AVIATION...
WHILE THE MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PUSHED OFF TO THE
EAST AND WEAKENED MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAINS AND AROUND BEXAR COUNTY.
FOR AUS...MVFR CONDITIONS NOW WILL RISE TO VFR BY MID AFTERNOON.
SOME OF THE ACTIVITY AROUND SAN ANTONIO WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD SO
HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT AUS FROM 21Z TO 00Z WHEN HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS SUGGEST ACTIVITY SHOULD START TO PUSH EASTWARD. OVERNIGHT
CIGS/VISBY DETERIORATES TO MVFR AGAIN BY 05Z AND DOWN TO IFR FOR
THE MORNING HOURS BEGINNING AT 09Z. MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR TOMORROW SO HAVE COVERED THIS WITH
A VCSH/VCTS FOR THE DAY ON MONDAY.
FOR SAT/SSF...THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON GOING IN AND AROUND THE
TERMINALS CURRENTLY (1730Z). THESE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS SO HAVE INCLUDED BOTH VCTS WITH TEMPO TSRA AT BOTH
TERMINALS. ACTIVITY SHOULD START TO PUSH EASTWARD AND WEAKEN
BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. SAT/SSF WILL
SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO AUS TONIGHT...DROPPING DOWN TO IFR BY
MORNING WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
AT DRT...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH A DRY FORECAST. INTERMITTENT MVFR IS POSSIBLE...AS WE HAVE
SEEN THIS MORNING BUT THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VERY BRIEF.
MORE PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP BY 10Z AND LAST THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY 17Z MONDAY
WITH A CONTINUED DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
TAFS WILL BE UPDATED AS NEEDED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BASED ON THE
DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IN THIS MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1045 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015/
UPDATE...DEEP MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA EARLIER THIS MORNING LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF BANDS OF HEAVY
STREAMER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35/I-37.
TRENDS OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO IN THE CONVECTION NORTH OF I-10
IN THIS AREA HAVE BEEN DOWN AS CONVERGENCE WEAKENS AND FORCING
LIFTS NORTHEAST. BETWEEN 4-9 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS
CENTRAL GUADALUPE COUNTY...WITH ONGOING FLASH FLOOD ISSUES ALONG
GERONIMO CREEK FEEDING INTO THE GUADALUPE RIVER.
TRENDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON ARE GOING TO FAVOR RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO
POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THIS
EARLY MORNING RAINFALL...AS BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ALLOW FOR
DE-STABILIZATION OF A VERY MOIST AIRMASS. 12Z CRP SOUNDING
INDICATED AN UNSTABLE PROFILE ALONG WITH PWATS NOW NEAR 2 INCHES.
ALREADY SEEING EVIDENCE OF RE-DEVELOPMENT THIS OCCURRING NEAR A
SAN ANTONIO/BANDERA TO BEEVILLE LINE. 14Z RUN OF HRRR INITIALIZED
CLOSER THAN MANY OF THE OTHER HI RESOLUTION MODELS...AND SHOULD
THIS VERIFY THE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT SOUTH AND WEST COULD MOVE
BACK OVER AREAS TO THE NORTHEAST THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL
THIS MORNING. FOR THIS REASON...AND OUT OF ABUNDANCE OF
CAUTION...WILL MAINTAIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONFIGURATION AS IS
FOR NOW AND RE-EVALUATE ADDITION OR REMOVAL OF COUNTIES IN THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE AS TRENDS DEVELOP.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 717 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015/
AVIATION.../12Z TAF CYCLE/
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ONGOING ALONG WITH SHRA AND SCT TSRA FOR KAUS
WITH VCSH FOR KSAT/KSSF. AN AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
KAUS THROUGH 815AM LOCAL TIME FOR LIGHTNING IN THE VICINITY.
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS LIKELY NEAR KSAT/KSSF THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. A LULL IN ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
HOURS BUT NEW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND WAS
HANDLED WITH A TEMPO GROUP IN ALL TAFS EXCEPT FOR KDRT. TSRA/SHRA
COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY QUICKLY. MOST
ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. A NEW ROUND OF
SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY EARLY MONDAY MORNING APPROACHING KAUS FROM THE
EAST. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AROUND 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT
AT TIMES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS ARE THE ONGOING CONVECTION THIS MORNING THAT HAS
LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND EXPECTED ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
A SEMI-ORGANIZED TSTORM LINE CURRENTLY EXTENTS FROM KERR ARCING BACK
SOUTHWEST INTO MAVERICK COUNTY ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THIS LINE IS
ORIENTED MORE EAST TO WEST AND HAS A SLOWER FORWARD MOTION ALLOWING
FOR HIGHER RAINFALL RATES LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
HOURLY RAINFALL RATES NEAR 1-2" ARE OCCURRING OVER UVALDE...ZAVALA
AND MAVERICK THAT WILL CONTINUE TO COMPOUND ANY LOCAL FLOODING
ISSUES. THIS LINE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH 5-6AM
WITH OVERALL RAINFALL RATES DECREASING. THE SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG
AND EAST OF US HWY 281 WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THE MORNING HOURS AS THE LOW-LVL JET OF 35-40 KT CONTINUES PER KEWX
VAD WIND PROFILE.
BY 6-9AM...FEEL THE LINE OUT WEST WILL HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED BUT
WILL LEAVE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO BE A LATER FOCUSING TRIGGER FOR
MORE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO AT THIS TIME...THE SCT ACTIVITY
THAT IS NOW ON GOING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AND REGENERATE INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS HEATING TAKES PLACE. WITH LITTLE TO NO CIN...SHALLOW
SHOWERS SHOULD BE QUITE NUMEROUS THIS AFTN. ONCE OUTFLOWS BEGIN TO
PROPAGATE LIKE YESTERDAY...FEEL THESE COLLISIONS AND THE POSSIBLE
LARGER OUTFLOW FROM THE MAIN LINE COULD AID IN PULSE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. MOST SHOULD STAY SUB-SEVERE WITH PROGGED 2000 J/KG AND
WEAK SHEAR /20KT 0-6 KM/ BUT SOME WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH AND SMALL
HAIL COULD BE POSSIBLE. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR ALSO AND WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE HWO. ANOTHER MORE
POTENT ROUND OF TSTORMS SHOULD AGAIN FIRE OVER THE BIG BEND AND WEST
TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR IF
THE SOUTHERN FRINGE MAKES IT INTO VAL VERDE BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
MORE LIMITED THAN CURRENT CONDITIONS THIS TIME TOMORROW.
FOR MONDAY...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING IN THE MORNING
FOR EASTERN AREAS AS THE FIRST OUTER BANDS OF A TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE INFLUENCE THE REGION. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO MOVE INLAND WITH GREATEST SHOWER FOCUS WEST OF US HWY 83
AND ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. OVERALL TOTALS THROUGH MONDAY
SHOULD REMAIN BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES IN LOCALIZED AREAS WITH SOME AREAS
RECEIVING LESS.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
POTENTIALLY MODERATE TO HIGH IMPACTS FROM FLASH AND RIVER FLOODING
COULD BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST
OF I-35...ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN COUNTIES AS A POSSIBLE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE PASSES CLOSE TO THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD RANGE
FROM 2-4 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 5-6 INCHES DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. THIS WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.
GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS ALL AGREE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK
TROPICAL SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF AND TOWARDS THE
TEXAS COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS POINT...IT IS NOT EXPECTED THAT
A STRONG CYCLONE GIVEN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND OVERALL
SHEAR SET-UP. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION BUT THE
OVERALL HAZARDS WILL BE DISCUSSED GIVEN THE MOST LIKELY POSSIBILITY.
THE OP GFS IS MORE WEST TOWARDS BAFFIN BAY WITH EC TOWARDS MATAGORDA
BAY AND NAM FARTHER WEST TOWARDS HOUSTON. GFS ENSEMBLE TRACKS FAVOR
MORE OF AN EC SOLUTION AND FEEL THIS IS THE BEST CONCENSUS AS IT
TRACKS INLAND OVER FAR EASTERN ZONES. THIS POSSIBLE TRACK WOULD
FAVOR HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION. MOST GUIDANCE AGREES THAT HIGHEST TOTALS WILL LIKELY
FALL EAST OF LAVACA/FAYETTE COUNTIES TOWARDS HOUSTON. HOWEVER, FAR
EAST ZONES WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST RISK FOR MULTIPLE PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN. WITH THE SURFACE LOW COMING ASHORE NEAR MID-DAY TUESDAY...THIS
WILL BE THE BEGINNING WINDOW FOR THESE HEAVY RAIN PERIODS TO OCCUR.
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE TIME FRAME WITH
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF IMPACT WEATHER FOR EASTERN ZONES AS HEAVY RAIN
COULD SET UP OVER THIS AREA. WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED 6
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THESE VALUES WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON THE
SURFACE LOW TRACK AND ANY DEVIATION LEFT/WEST COULD RESULT IN MORE
RAINFALL. GLOBAL MODELS DO INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL (HIGHER THAN AMOUNTS
MENTIONED ABOVE) AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL JUST EAST OF OUR AREA AND
TRENDS WILL NEED TO MONITORED CLOSELY.
THE H5 PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A TROUGH WEAKNESS CENTERED
BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGHS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK THAT WILL
ALLOW FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BY THE
WEEKEND...SLIGHTLY STRONGER RIDGING SHOULD SHIFT OVER THE REGION AND
REDUCE RAIN CHANCE TO ONLY 20-30% DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 73 88 73 86 73 / 20 60 40 60 50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 72 87 72 86 73 / 20 60 40 60 50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 73 89 73 88 73 / 20 60 40 60 50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 72 87 71 85 72 / 20 50 30 60 40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 75 92 75 93 75 / 30 20 20 20 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 73 87 72 85 72 / 20 60 40 60 50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 74 90 74 90 74 / 20 40 20 40 40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 72 88 73 86 72 / 20 60 40 60 50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 74 88 74 85 74 / 30 70 40 80 70
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 74 89 75 88 75 / 20 50 30 50 40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 74 90 75 90 74 / 20 50 30 50 40
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
ATASCOSA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...COMAL...
DE WITT...FAYETTE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...
KENDALL...LAVACA...LEE...TRAVIS...WILLIAMSON...WILSON.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TREADWAY
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1045 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.UPDATE...DEEP MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA EARLIER THIS MORNING LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF BANDS OF HEAVY
STREAMER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35/I-37.
TRENDS OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO IN THE CONVECTION NORTH OF I-10
IN THIS AREA HAVE BEEN DOWN AS CONVERGENCE WEAKENS AND FORCING
LIFTS NORTHEAST. BETWEEN 4-9 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS
CENTRAL GUADALUPE COUNTY...WITH ONGOING FLASH FLOOD ISSUES ALONG
GERONIMO CREEK FEEDING INTO THE GUADALUPE RIVER.
TRENDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON ARE GOING TO FAVOR RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO
POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THIS
EARLY MORNING RAINFALL...AS BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ALLOW FOR
DE-STABILIZATION OF A VERY MOIST AIRMASS. 12Z CRP SOUNDING
INDICATED AN UNSTABLE PROFILE ALONG WITH PWATS NOW NEAR 2 INCHES.
ALREADY SEEING EVIDENCE OF RE-DEVELOPMENT THIS OCCURRING NEAR A
SAN ANTONIO/BANDERA TO BEEVILLE LINE. 14Z RUN OF HRRR INITIALIZED
CLOSER THAN MANY OF THE OTHER HI RESOLUTION MODELS...AND SHOULD
THIS VERIFY THE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT SOUTH AND WEST COULD MOVE
BACK OVER AREAS TO THE NORTHEAST THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL
THIS MORNING. FOR THIS REASON...AND OUT OF ABUNDANCE OF
CAUTION...WILL MAINTAIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONFIGURATION AS IS
FOR NOW AND RE-EVALUATE ADDITION OR REMOVAL OF COUNTIES IN THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE AS TRENDS DEVELOP.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 717 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015/
AVIATION.../12Z TAF CYCLE/
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ONGOING ALONG WITH SHRA AND SCT TSRA FOR KAUS
WITH VCSH FOR KSAT/KSSF. AN AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
KAUS THROUGH 815AM LOCAL TIME FOR LIGHTNING IN THE VICINITY.
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS LIKELY NEAR KSAT/KSSF THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. A LULL IN ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
HOURS BUT NEW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND WAS
HANDLED WITH A TEMPO GROUP IN ALL TAFS EXCEPT FOR KDRT. TSRA/SHRA
COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY QUICKLY. MOST
ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. A NEW ROUND OF
SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY EARLY MONDAY MORNING APPROACHING KAUS FROM THE
EAST. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AROUND 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT
AT TIMES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS ARE THE ONGOING CONVECTION THIS MORNING THAT HAS
LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND EXPECTED ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
A SEMI-ORGANIZED TSTORM LINE CURRENTLY EXTENTS FROM KERR ARCING BACK
SOUTHWEST INTO MAVERICK COUNTY ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THIS LINE IS
ORIENTED MORE EAST TO WEST AND HAS A SLOWER FORWARD MOTION ALLOWING
FOR HIGHER RAINFALL RATES LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
HOURLY RAINFALL RATES NEAR 1-2" ARE OCCURRING OVER UVALDE...ZAVALA
AND MAVERICK THAT WILL CONTINUE TO COMPOUND ANY LOCAL FLOODING
ISSUES. THIS LINE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH 5-6AM
WITH OVERALL RAINFALL RATES DECREASING. THE SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG
AND EAST OF US HWY 281 WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THE MORNING HOURS AS THE LOW-LVL JET OF 35-40 KT CONTINUES PER KEWX
VAD WIND PROFILE.
BY 6-9AM...FEEL THE LINE OUT WEST WILL HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED BUT
WILL LEAVE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO BE A LATER FOCUSING TRIGGER FOR
MORE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO AT THIS TIME...THE SCT ACTIVITY
THAT IS NOW ON GOING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AND REGENERATE INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS HEATING TAKES PLACE. WITH LITTLE TO NO CIN...SHALLOW
SHOWERS SHOULD BE QUITE NUMEROUS THIS AFTN. ONCE OUTFLOWS BEGIN TO
PROPAGATE LIKE YESTERDAY...FEEL THESE COLLISIONS AND THE POSSIBLE
LARGER OUTFLOW FROM THE MAIN LINE COULD AID IN PULSE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. MOST SHOULD STAY SUB-SEVERE WITH PROGGED 2000 J/KG AND
WEAK SHEAR /20KT 0-6 KM/ BUT SOME WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH AND SMALL
HAIL COULD BE POSSIBLE. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR ALSO AND WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE HWO. ANOTHER MORE
POTENT ROUND OF TSTORMS SHOULD AGAIN FIRE OVER THE BIG BEND AND WEST
TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR IF
THE SOUTHERN FRINGE MAKES IT INTO VAL VERDE BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
MORE LIMITED THAN CURRENT CONDITIONS THIS TIME TOMORROW.
FOR MONDAY...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING IN THE MORNING
FOR EASTERN AREAS AS THE FIRST OUTER BANDS OF A TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE INFLUENCE THE REGION. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO MOVE INLAND WITH GREATEST SHOWER FOCUS WEST OF US HWY 83
AND ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. OVERALL TOTALS THROUGH MONDAY
SHOULD REMAIN BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES IN LOCALIZED AREAS WITH SOME AREAS
RECEIVING LESS.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
POTENTIALLY MODERATE TO HIGH IMPACTS FROM FLASH AND RIVER FLOODING
COULD BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST
OF I-35...ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN COUNTIES AS A POSSIBLE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE PASSES CLOSE TO THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD RANGE
FROM 2-4 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 5-6 INCHES DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. THIS WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.
GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS ALL AGREE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK
TROPICAL SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF AND TOWARDS THE
TEXAS COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS POINT...IT IS NOT EXPECTED THAT
A STRONG CYCLONE GIVEN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND OVERALL
SHEAR SET-UP. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION BUT THE
OVERALL HAZARDS WILL BE DISCUSSED GIVEN THE MOST LIKELY POSSIBILITY.
THE OP GFS IS MORE WEST TOWARDS BAFFIN BAY WITH EC TOWARDS MATAGORDA
BAY AND NAM FARTHER WEST TOWARDS HOUSTON. GFS ENSEMBLE TRACKS FAVOR
MORE OF AN EC SOLUTION AND FEEL THIS IS THE BEST CONCENSUS AS IT
TRACKS INLAND OVER FAR EASTERN ZONES. THIS POSSIBLE TRACK WOULD
FAVOR HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION. MOST GUIDANCE AGREES THAT HIGHEST TOTALS WILL LIKELY
FALL EAST OF LAVACA/FAYETTE COUNTIES TOWARDS HOUSTON. HOWEVER, FAR
EAST ZONES WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST RISK FOR MULTIPLE PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN. WITH THE SURFACE LOW COMING ASHORE NEAR MID-DAY TUESDAY...THIS
WILL BE THE BEGINNING WINDOW FOR THESE HEAVY RAIN PERIODS TO OCCUR.
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE TIME FRAME WITH
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF IMPACT WEATHER FOR EASTERN ZONES AS HEAVY RAIN
COULD SET UP OVER THIS AREA. WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED 6
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THESE VALUES WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON THE
SURFACE LOW TRACK AND ANY DEVIATION LEFT/WEST COULD RESULT IN MORE
RAINFALL. GLOBAL MODELS DO INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL (HIGHER THAN AMOUNTS
MENTIONED ABOVE) AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL JUST EAST OF OUR AREA AND
TRENDS WILL NEED TO MONITORED CLOSELY.
THE H5 PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A TROUGH WEAKNESS CENTERED
BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGHS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK THAT WILL
ALLOW FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BY THE
WEEKEND...SLIGHTLY STRONGER RIDGING SHOULD SHIFT OVER THE REGION AND
REDUCE RAIN CHANCE TO ONLY 20-30% DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 90 73 88 73 86 / 80 20 60 40 60
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 89 72 87 72 86 / 80 20 60 40 60
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 89 73 89 73 88 / 80 20 60 40 60
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 88 72 87 71 85 / 70 20 50 30 60
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 92 75 92 75 93 / 20 30 20 20 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 88 73 87 72 85 / 80 20 60 40 60
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 89 74 90 74 90 / 30 20 40 20 40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 88 72 88 73 86 / 80 20 60 40 60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 88 74 88 74 85 / 80 30 70 40 80
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 89 74 89 75 88 / 80 20 50 30 50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 90 74 90 75 90 / 80 20 50 30 50
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
ATASCOSA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...COMAL...
DE WITT...FAYETTE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...
KENDALL...LAVACA...LEE...TRAVIS...WILLIAMSON...WILSON.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TREADWAY
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
642 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS ARE SLOWLY DETERIORATING TO MVFR IN LIGHT FOG OVER
PARTS OF THE REGION AND THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING AT LBB AND PVW AROUND 14Z SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. SKYCAM
AT PVW ALREADY SHOWS SHALLOW FOG /MIFG/ WHICH COULD THICKEN TO
LIFR AT TIMES THRU 15Z. CDS LOOKS TO AVOID THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF
THESE MVFR CIGS FOR NOW.
BY THIS EVENING...THERE IS YET AGAIN A HIGH PROBABILITY FOR A
SQUALL LINE TO SWEEP SOUTHEAST AND AFFLICT ALL TERMINALS WITH LOW
VISBYS...STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOW CIGS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015/
SHORT TERM...
WIDESPREAD CLOUD DEBRIS FROM LAST NIGHT/S MCS WAS UNDERGOING
GRADUAL EROSION THIS MORNING FROM W-E. DESPITE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
SOUTH OF A WEAK CLOSED LOW...ADDITIONAL ATTEMPTS AT PRECIP HAVE
BEEN SUPPRESSED BY OVERWHELMING SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE
LARGE MCS. NEAR-TERM QPF ON ALL 00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS WAS VASTLY
OVERDONE IN COVERAGE WITH ALMOST NO SEMBLANCE OF THE MCS WHICH
CONTINUES TO OUR EAST AT 08Z...SO THE PRECIP FORECAST BENEFITS
FROM A HEAVY DOSE OF THE MORE REALISTIC HRRR AND VARIOUS
EXPERIMENTAL WRF MODELS.
POPS THRU 18Z HAVE BEEN DROPPED OVER MOST AREAS AS SUFFICIENT LIFT
IS JUST NOT IN THE CARDS. THIS THEME SHOULD CHANGE LATER TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS A TRAILING VORT LOBE ROTATES SEWD ACROSS THE
REGION SOUTHWEST OF A 700-500MB LOW. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT APPEARS
TO FAVOR THE WESTERN PANHANDLE NEAR THE VORT CENTER WITH
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH IN EASTERN NM.
MUCH OF OUR FOCUS WILL BE ON THE FORMER AS THE MID-LEVEL FLOW
VEERS FROM W TO NW. CAPE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE FORECAST TO BE
EVEN LESS THAN YESTERDAY...BUT VALUES ARE STILL SUFFICIENT TO
FOSTER SOME PULSY SEVERE EVENTS ESPECIALLY IF OUTFLOWS CONSOLIDATE
AND GIVE RISE TO ANOTHER NOCTURNAL MCS AS IS PROGGED BY MOST
EXPERIMENTAL WRF RUNS. POPS WERE RAMPED UP TO HIGH LIKELIES THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT WE/LL RESTRICT THE SEVERE WIND AND
HAIL MENTION TO THE HWO AS THESE THREATS LOOK TO BE VERY ISOLATED
AND MORE MARGINAL THAN RECENT DAYS.
LONG TERM...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE DURING THE DAY MONDAY BUT DIFFER ON HOW FAR SOUTH IT
WILL MAKE IT. SINCE THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE SOME LOW LEVEL LIFT
AND CONVERGENCE...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
OUTFLOW FROM THE STORMS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PUSH THE FRONT FURTHER
SOUTH INTO OUR AREA BUT THE TREND OF LOWERING THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR AVAILABLE WILL CONTINUE. ALSO IMPACTING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON MONDAY WILL BE HOW THE POSSIBLE NOCTURNAL
MCS MENTIONED ABOVE DEVELOPS. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE
FOR THE CAPROCK WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT BUT WILL NOT PUT MENTION OF SEVERE IN AT THIS TIME.
TUESDAY IS A BIT TRICKY FOR POPS AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A
WEAK CLOSED LOW OR TROF AXIS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE REMNANT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE IN THE REGION. THE FRONT DOES LOOK TO
MIX OUT AND RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL BRING
SLIGHTLY HIGHER SURFACE MOISTURE LEVELS BACK INTO PLAY. HOWEVER...
SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN RATHER WEAK AND MAX CAPE VALUES REMAIN AT OR
UNDER 1000 J/KG SO SEVERE THREAT LOOK LOW. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
GOING THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY BUT IT APPEARS THAT WE SHOULD
FINALLY START TO DRY OUT AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES DROP BY TUESDAY
NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN LOW FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST AS WE STAY ON THE EAST SIDE OF AN ELONGATED
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THERE ARE SOME HINTS
THAT A FEW SHORTWAVES COULD RIDE AROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND
MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA IN WEAK NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WHICH COULD BRING A FEW EVENINGS OF ISOLATED STORMS. THERE
REMAINS TOO MUCH VARIABILITY TO FAVOR ANY ONE DAY OVER ANOTHER FOR
INCREASED POPS MID TO LATE WEEK BUT IT APPEARS THAT BOTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY COULD BOTH SEE SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BEFORE FINALLY WARMING BACK UP FOR THE LAST HALF OF THIS FORECAST
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS A BIT OVER THE AREA. RECENT RAINFALL WILL HELP
TO KEEP THINGS FROM HEATING UP TOO FAST BUT THE FLIP SIDE WILL BE
SOME PRETTY MUGGY AFTERNOONS LATE WEEK. ONLY OTHER THING TO WATCH
WILL BE A POSSIBLE COLD FRONT FOR THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
THAT COULD BRING A RETURN OF POPS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING THIS AS A
POSSIBILITY...WILL WATCH AND SEE HOW THE NEXT SEVERAL RUNS EVOLVE
BEFORE MAKING MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
JORDAN
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
406 AM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HUDSPETH COUNTY
WILL RESULT IN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY AND VERY WARM
WITH A SPRINKLING OF 100 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS. A TROUGH ALOFT DROPPING SOUTH OVER NEW MEXICO ON MONDAY
WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL EAST FLOW AND BRING CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE
BACK IN. THIS WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOCAL AREAS OF FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND DRYING THE
AREA OUT. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS TO PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE THE BORDERLAND WILL BECOME DRY AND HOT MOST OF THE
LOWLAND SITES SURPASSING THE 100 DEGREE MARK BY SEVERAL DEGREES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH WHICH HAD BEEN SITTING OVER THE GREAT BASIN EXTENDINGTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS FINALLY STARTING TO SAG SOUTH OVER NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO. STILL A SLOW PROCESS AND THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE ALONG OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN BOUNDARIES OF THE CWA (1+
INCH PWS JUST EAST OF THE CWA). LOW POPS AGAIN TODAY FOR THE
GILA/BLACK RANGE REGION...EASTERN OTERO COUNTY...AND HUDSPETH
COUNTY. HRRR HAD BEEN A BIT BULLISH WITH EASTERN CWA QPF THIS
AFTERNOON BUT LATEST RUN (08Z) SHOWS WEST WIND PUSH FLUSHING MUCH
OF THE HIGHER DEW POINTS OUT JUST EAST OF THE CWA BY AROUND 20Z
WITH VERY LITTLE QPF THRU 23Z. IN FACT IT NOW HAS HIGHEST QPFS
OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK RANGE.
OTHERWISE MODELS STILL ON COURSE FOR DROPPING UPPER TROUGH DOWN
EASTERN NEW MEXICO TONIGHT AND ALLOWING MOIST EAST SURGE TO PUSH
IN OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR MOUNTAINS TO FIRE OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
BY MID DAY AND THEN DEVELOP OVER MOST OF THE LOWLAND EAST OF THE
DIVIDE BY LATE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE PARAMETERS WILL INCREASE
FURTHER ON TUESDAY WITH PW`S OVER AN INCH MANY AREAS. SHOULD BE
THE BEST DAY AREA WIDE FOR PRECIP. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND LOCAL FLOODING.
BY WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND EASTERN PACIFIC HIGH WILL BEGIN
BUILDING RIDGE OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO. H5 TEMPS WILL WARM
ABOUT A DEGREE EACH DAY...STRENGTHENING THE CAP THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY FLUSH OUT FROM THE WEST
BUT WILL TEND TO PERSIST OVER THE SACS SO KEPT LOW POPS IN THERE
THROUGH FRIDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND HEAT. H85
TEMPS SUGGEST TRIPLE DIGITS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR THE
LOWLANDS...AND HIGHS ON THE WEEKEND COULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
100.
&&
.AVIATION...14/12Z-15/12Z.
GENLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AFT 18Z...OVER MOUNTAIN
AREAS AND EAST OF AN ALAMOGORDO-HUECO TANKS LINE...FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE WITH BKN100CB VSBYS 3-5SM. GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE
NEAR THESE STORMS. WEST WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS TODAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RESIDUAL MOISTURE COULD FUEL A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN AND OVER HUDSPETH COUNTY. AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING
SOUTH OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL CREATE MOIST EAST FLOW AND
INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND PEAKING ON TUESDAY.
HEAVY RAINFALL/LOCAL FLOODING COULD RESULT ON TUESDAY. MIN RH`S
WILL REMAIN AROUND 20% LOWLANDS AND 30-40% MOUNTAIN ZONES THROUGH
TUESDAY. BUILDING RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL GRADUALLY DRY THE AREA OUT
AND DEVELOP HOT TEMPERATURES. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD STILL
SPRING UP OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS THROUGH FRIDAY. OTHERWISE
FUEL DRYING OUT CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND. MIN RH`S LOWERING TO
10-15% LOWLANDS AND 15-25% MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO
ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FIRE CONDITIONS BY THE WEEKEND
COULD APPROACH CRITICAL BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW RED
FLAG CRITERIA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 100 72 98 75 / 10 10 20 20
SIERRA BLANCA 98 63 93 70 / 10 10 20 30
LAS CRUCES 98 62 97 70 / 10 0 20 20
ALAMOGORDO 99 63 96 68 / 10 10 20 30
CLOUDCROFT 76 46 72 49 / 30 10 40 50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 97 63 94 69 / 10 10 20 20
SILVER CITY 88 57 87 59 / 10 10 10 20
DEMING 99 60 98 67 / 10 10 0 20
LORDSBURG 98 61 96 67 / 10 10 0 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 99 67 97 73 / 10 0 20 20
DELL CITY 98 60 93 66 / 20 10 20 20
FORT HANCOCK 100 66 97 72 / 10 10 20 20
LOMA LINDA 96 63 91 67 / 10 10 20 30
FABENS 97 65 98 72 / 10 10 20 20
SANTA TERESA 98 66 97 71 / 10 0 20 20
WHITE SANDS HQ 99 65 96 71 / 10 10 20 20
JORNADA RANGE 99 60 96 66 / 10 10 20 20
HATCH 100 61 97 67 / 10 10 20 20
COLUMBUS 99 64 98 71 / 0 0 0 20
OROGRANDE 99 66 95 72 / 10 10 20 20
MAYHILL 84 50 79 53 / 30 20 40 50
MESCALERO 84 49 82 51 / 20 10 40 50
TIMBERON 84 47 80 52 / 20 10 40 40
WINSTON 86 54 85 59 / 20 20 20 30
HILLSBORO 94 59 94 62 / 10 10 20 20
SPACEPORT 99 59 96 65 / 10 10 20 20
LAKE ROBERTS 87 52 86 55 / 20 20 20 40
HURLEY 91 57 90 60 / 10 10 10 10
CLIFF 96 50 95 54 / 10 10 10 10
MULE CREEK 93 48 92 52 / 10 10 0 10
FAYWOOD 92 59 91 62 / 10 10 10 20
ANIMAS 100 61 97 67 / 0 10 0 10
HACHITA 99 59 98 67 / 0 0 0 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 100 59 97 65 / 0 0 0 10
CLOVERDALE 93 58 91 63 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
17 HEFNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
402 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...
WIDESPREAD CLOUD DEBRIS FROM LAST NIGHT/S MCS WAS UNDERGOING
GRADUAL EROSION THIS MORNING FROM W-E. DESPITE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
SOUTH OF A WEAK CLOSED LOW...ADDITIONAL ATTEMPTS AT PRECIP HAVE
BEEN SUPPRESSED BY OVERWHELMING SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE
LARGE MCS. NEAR-TERM QPF ON ALL 00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS WAS VASTLY
OVERDONE IN COVERAGE WITH ALMOST NO SEMBLANCE OF THE MCS WHICH
CONTINUES TO OUR EAST AT 08Z...SO THE PRECIP FORECAST BENEFITS
FROM A HEAVY DOSE OF THE MORE REALISTIC HRRR AND VARIOUS
EXPERIMENTAL WRF MODELS.
POPS THRU 18Z HAVE BEEN DROPPED OVER MOST AREAS AS SUFFICIENT LIFT
IS JUST NOT IN THE CARDS. THIS THEME SHOULD CHANGE LATER TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS A TRAILING VORT LOBE ROTATES SEWD ACROSS THE
REGION SOUTHWEST OF A 700-500MB LOW. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT APPEARS
TO FAVOR THE WESTERN PANHANDLE NEAR THE VORT CENTER WITH
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH IN EASTERN NM.
MUCH OF OUR FOCUS WILL BE ON THE FORMER AS THE MID-LEVEL FLOW
VEERS FROM W TO NW. CAPE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE FORECAST TO BE
EVEN LESS THAN YESTERDAY...BUT VALUES ARE STILL SUFFICIENT TO
FOSTER SOME PULSY SEVERE EVENTS ESPECIALLY IF OUTFLOWS CONSOLIDATE
AND GIVE RISE TO ANOTHER NOCTURNAL MCS AS IS PROGGED BY MOST
EXPERIMENTAL WRF RUNS. POPS WERE RAMPED UP TO HIGH LIKELIES THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT WE/LL RESTRICT THE SEVERE WIND AND
HAIL MENTION TO THE HWO AS THESE THREATS LOOK TO BE VERY ISOLATED
AND MORE MARGINAL THAN RECENT DAYS.
.LONG TERM...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE DURING THE DAY MONDAY BUT DIFFER ON HOW FAR SOUTH IT
WILL MAKE IT. SINCE THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE SOME LOW LEVEL LIFT
AND CONVERGENCE...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
OUTFLOW FROM THE STORMS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PUSH THE FRONT FURTHER
SOUTH INTO OUR AREA BUT THE TREND OF LOWERING THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR AVAILABLE WILL CONTINUE. ALSO IMPACTING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON MONDAY WILL BE HOW THE POSSIBLE NOCTURNAL
MCS MENTIONED ABOVE DEVELOPS. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE
FOR THE CAPROCK WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT BUT WILL NOT PUT MENTION OF SEVERE IN AT THIS TIME.
TUESDAY IS A BIT TRICKY FOR POPS AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A
WEAK CLOSED LOW OR TROF AXIS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE REMNANT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE IN THE REGION. THE FRONT DOES LOOK TO
MIX OUT AND RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL BRING
SLIGHTLY HIGHER SURFACE MOISTURE LEVELS BACK INTO PLAY. HOWEVER...
SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN RATHER WEAK AND MAX CAPE VALUES REMAIN AT OR
UNDER 1000 J/KG SO SEVERE THREAT LOOK LOW. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
GOING THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY BUT IT APPEARS THAT WE SHOULD
FINALLY START TO DRY OUT AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES DROP BY TUESDAY
NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN LOW FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST AS WE STAY ON THE EAST SIDE OF AN ELONGATED
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THERE ARE SOME HINTS
THAT A FEW SHORTWAVES COULD RIDE AROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND
MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA IN WEAK NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WHICH COULD BRING A FEW EVENINGS OF ISOLATED STORMS. THERE
REMAINS TOO MUCH VARIABILITY TO FAVOR ANY ONE DAY OVER ANOTHER FOR
INCREASED POPS MID TO LATE WEEK BUT IT APPEARS THAT BOTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY COULD BOTH SEE SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BEFORE FINALLY WARMING BACK UP FOR THE LAST HALF OF THIS FORECAST
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS A BIT OVER THE AREA. RECENT RAINFALL WILL HELP
TO KEEP THINGS FROM HEATING UP TOO FAST BUT THE FLIP SIDE WILL BE
SOME PRETTY MUGGY AFTERNOONS LATE WEEK. ONLY OTHER THING TO WATCH
WILL BE A POSSIBLE COLD FRONT FOR THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
THAT COULD BRING A RETURN OF POPS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING THIS AS A
POSSIBILITY...WILL WATCH AND SEE HOW THE NEXT SEVERAL RUNS EVOLVE
BEFORE MAKING MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
JORDAN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 82 62 80 61 / 50 70 50 40
TULIA 81 63 80 63 / 30 70 50 50
PLAINVIEW 82 64 80 63 / 30 70 50 50
LEVELLAND 84 65 81 63 / 20 60 50 40
LUBBOCK 84 66 82 64 / 20 70 50 40
DENVER CITY 86 64 82 63 / 20 40 40 40
BROWNFIELD 86 65 82 64 / 20 60 50 40
CHILDRESS 85 68 83 68 / 20 70 60 60
SPUR 86 66 82 65 / 20 70 60 40
ASPERMONT 89 69 87 68 / 20 70 60 40
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
93/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1242 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2015
.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
Two areas of thunderstorms are currently moving through the
forecast area late tonight. Both are also dissipating as they move
eastward. Have kept a mention of VCTS in at KABI and KSOA, but
other locations are not likely to see any activity. Although these
thunderstorm complexes will temporarily affect the development of
low clouds, still expect to see MVFR CIGS develop across the area
later tonight, and have kept these CIGS in the TAFS, with low
clouds scattering out during the mid to late morning hours.
Scattered thunderstorms are possible again tomorrow afternoon and
evening, but mainly west of the area, so confidence is not yet
high enough in placement or coverage to mention in this forecast
package. 20
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2015/
AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
VFR conditions currently at all sites. Scattered showers and a
possible thunderstorm may affect KABI in the next hour or two, and
also later if the HRRR is correct in bringing a line of
thunderstorms through the area. Have kept the mention of VCTS at
KABI, KSJT and KSOA during the evening hours for this possibility.
Expect the thunderstorms if they survive this far east to
dissipate for the most part before making it to KBBD and KJCT, but
will update if convection does hang on that far east. Otherwise,
MVFR CIGS are expected to return, especially for southern areas
during the overnight hours, as winds remain southeasterly outside
of erratic gusts from thunderstorms. 20
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015/
SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)
A quasi-stationary front was analyzed across the northern Big
Country this morning, but this boundary has become more diffuse this
afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have initiated along
and north of this boundary, mainly affecting locations just outside
of the CWA. However, recent satellite imagery has shown an outflow
boundary moving south across Haskell and Throckmorton Counties,
which could lead to additional development of storms south of the
current complex. Farther west, additional storms are developing,
favoring the higher terrain west of Ft. Stockton. A few cells have
tried to get going north of Snyder, sparked from what appears to be
a gravity wave moving southeast across the South Plains. However,
this activity has really struggled to maintain any intensity. MLCAPE
values are on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg, but effective bulk shear
values are on the low side (<25 kts), suggesting generally
disorganized convection this afternoon.
Most of the area will remain dry over the next few hours (excluding
the northern Big Country), but thunderstorms to our west are
expected to grow upscale into a loosely organized MCS, moving east
into the area during the evening and early morning hours. The
general trend should be for this activity to weaken as it moves into
West Central TX. We could see locally heavy rainfall, but most areas
will likely see less than 1/4". Overnight temperatures will largely
be in the lower 70s, but a few areas could dip into the upper 60s in
and around thunderstorms.
Any lingering precipitation from overnight convection is not
expected to persist long on Sunday. Most of the area will likely
remain dry through midday, with a few showers and thunderstorms
developing in the moist, uncapped environment. Like today, the
threat for severe weather will remain low. Highs tomorrow will be in
the upper 80s and lower 90s.
LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)
This afternoon, an upper-level trough was located west of the
region. Over the next few days it will continue to slowly move our
way, weakening as it does so. Farther south and east, a tropical low
was moving across the Yucatan, and this low is forecast to move
towards the middle Texas coast by Tuesday.
Moisture will continue to remain plentiful, with precipitable water
values in the 1.5 to 2 inch range. This afternoon`s numerical model
runs also show an upper-level perturbation crossing the Panhandle
tomorrow night, which may help organize convection to our northwest.
If this was to pan out, a cluster of thunderstorms may grow upscale
into an MCS if their associated could pools consolidate, with an
east to southeast propagation expected (similar to last night and
what may occur tonight). Locations north and west of a line from Ft.
Lancaster, to Robert Lee, to Albany would stand the best chance of
seeing any rainfall from this potential system. The aforementioned
trough (what`s left of it) will cross West Central Texas during the
first half of the week, helping pull the tropical low north ahead of
it. With a continued moist and uncapped airmass in place, shower and
thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase, especially across the
eastern half of the forecast area. Drier air moving across West
Central Texas will put an end to any precipitation chances for
Friday and Saturday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 72 89 71 87 71 / 30 40 30 40 30
San Angelo 72 91 71 89 71 / 30 30 20 40 20
Junction 72 90 71 89 71 / 20 20 20 30 40
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1146 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
SHRA/TSRA INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND THE HRRR HAS INITIALIZED AND
VERIFIED BEST THIS EVENING AND WILL LEAN TOWARD THE HRRR WHICH HAS
CONVECTION PERSISTING AT THE HOUSTON TERMINALS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
15Z. THE SHRA/TSRA MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS
OVER 20 KTS SO ADDED A VRB15KT TO THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES.
THE AREA OF PRECIP WILL EXPAND WEST AND NORTH AFTER 15Z. PROBABLY
GET A BREAK NEAR THE COAST BY EARLY AFTN WITH BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION INLAND. A BREAK IN THE PRECIP AREAWIDE IS EXPECTED
DURING THE EVENING AS PW VALUES DROP BELOW 2.00 INCHES BUT
MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN AFTER 06Z WITH SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 09-12Z MONDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 953 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015/
UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS EVENING AS A POCKET OF HIGHER DEW POINT AIR /76+
DEGREES/ CONTINUES TO PUSH ONTO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. ANTICIPATE
GREATEST COVERAGE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TONIGHT TO
PERSIST PRIMARILY ALONG THE COAST WHERE GREATEST WIND
SPEED/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE RESIDES... WITH COVERAGE DECREASING AS
ONE MOVES NORTH AWAY FROM THE COAST. CURRENT FORECAST HANDLES
THIS WELL AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS.
0236Z /936 PM CDT/ KHGX VAD WIND PROFILER IS SHOWING 30 KNOT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 3000FT ABOVE THE SURFACE AND A
COMBINATION OF A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT /4 MB DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN VICTORIA AND BEAUMONT/ AND DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WAS
CREATING GUSTY WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THIS ACTIVITY OVER THE
MARINE ZONES. COULD SEE A FEW MORE 25 TO 30 KNOT GUSTS AS THIS
ACTIVITY MOVES INLAND... WITH POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL AS WELL.
MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO THE MARINE WAS TO DROP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE NEARSHORE /0-20 NM/ WATERS AND REPLACE WITH A SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT AS WINDS OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS HAD DECREASED BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. UPDATED
PRODUCTS OUT.
HUFFMAN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z LCH SOUNDING WAS A GOOD INDICATOR OF WHAT WAS POSSIBLE
WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS MORNING. LCH SOUNDING SHOWED 2.2 INCHES
OF PRECIP WATER WHICH HAD ALSO SPREAD INTO SE TX. GOES SOUNDER
DERIVED PW VALUES ARE VERY MUCH IN LINE WITH THE SOUNDING. WFO
HOUSTON HAD 5.26 INCHES OF RAIN FROM THE EVENT WITH OTHER AREAS
GETTING AS MUCH AS 7 INCHES. DICKINSON BAYOU WAS AS MUCH AS 5 FEET
OUT OF ITS BANKS. VERY LOCALIZED FLOODING IN GALVESTON COUNTY BUT
STILL AN INDICATION OF WHAT MIGHT BE POSSIBLE THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH THIS MOIST OF AN AIRMASS OVER THE AREA.
SUNDAY STILL LOOKS WET WITH THE NAM MOST ROBUST WITH QPF OVER THE
AREA. STILL LOOKING AT PW VALUES GREATER THAN 2 INCHES OVER THE
AREA FOR SUNDAY AND EXPECT MORE SCT SHOWERS/STORMS. RAINFALL RATES
IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AN HOUR WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION.
LLJ OF 20 KTS STILL SHOULD SUPPORT MOIST INFLOW INTO ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP. WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT WILL AGAIN SUPPORT GOOD
VENTING IN STORMS. ENVIRONMENT STILL VERY CAPABLE OF HEAVY
RAINFALL BUT THE GOOD THING IS THAT STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING. THE
PROBLEM IS IF STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA WHICH WAS THE
PROBLEM TODAY.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THIS IS WHERE THE FORECAST GETS
INTERESTING. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OVER THE YUCATAN WILL BE THE
MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS TIME FRAME. RIGHT NOW THERE IS AN UPPER
LOW AFFECTING THE DISTURBANCE WITH STRONGER SHEAR. UPPER LEVEL
WINDS LOOK TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SE US
AND W ATLANTIC SHOULD PROVIDE DECENT STEERING FLOW WITH A WEAKNESS
IN THE RIDGE OR TROUGHING OVER TX PROVIDING A NICE ALLEY FOR THIS
DISTURBANCE TO TRACK. GFS/NAM SHOW SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE REACHING MIDDLE TX COAST AROUND 12Z TUE WITH
THE ECMWF/CANADIAN ABOUT 12 HR SLOWER. SLOW MOTION OF
ECMWF/CANADIAN IS CONCERNING AS THIS WOULD ONLY INCREASE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WHICH WILL ALREADY BE VERY HIGH. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT LIKELY TOMORROW GOING INTO MONDAY. JUST TO
GIVE YOU AN IDEA OF THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL...GFS/NAM BOTH
SHOW PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND 2.6 INCHES OR MORE.
FLOODING RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY IMPACT FOR THE AREA FROM THIS
DISTURBANCE. ANY TYPE OF SURGE/WIND/TORNADO IMPACT WILL LARGELY
DEPEND ON HOW ORGANIZED THE SYSTEM BECOMES. MODELS SUGGEST
POSSIBLY A DEPRESSION FORMING OR LOW END TROPICAL STORM. WILL HAVE
TO WAIT/SEE WHAT HAPPENS AS NOT GOING TO TAKE ANY GUESSES AS TO
ITS EVENTUAL ORGANIZATION. WE WILL LEAVE THAT FORECAST ISSUE TO
NHC AND DERIVE IMPACTS FROM THEIR FORECASTS.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK THE SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE BEEN CAUGHT UP WITH
THE WESTERLIES BUT THINK ANY RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE WEEK. LIKELY
KEEP AT LEAST SOME MENTION OF RAIN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
TEMPS BACK IN THE LOW 90S FOR HIGH TEMPS.
39
MARINE... WINDS OVER THE BAYS/NEARSHORE WATERS HAVE DECREASED A
BIT THIS AFTN BUT ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. WILL
BE KEEPING THE SCA IN PLACE FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS AS THE LONGER
FETCH HELPS KEEP SEAS ELEVATED TONIGHT. THE ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
BE EXTENDED AS THIS OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND.
OF NOTE FOR FCST GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY
OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY AROUND THE YUCATAN.
CURRENT MODEL TRACKS/TRENDS POINTING IN THIS GENERAL DIRECTION DUR-
THE MON/TUES TIMEFRAME. BEAR WATCH IN PLACE. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 74 87 73 86 73 / 20 60 30 60 50
HOUSTON (IAH) 75 86 74 85 75 / 40 70 50 80 70
GALVESTON (GLS) 79 85 78 84 78 / 60 70 60 80 80
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1035 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 544 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
HEAVIEST RAINS HAVE SHIFTED SE OF THE AREA. PLAN TO LET THE WRN
USSFA CONT THROUGH TO IT/S 615 PM EXPIRATION...AS HAVE RECEIVED
NUMEROUS REPORTS OF URBAN FLOODING FM THE ATW AREA. THE SECOND
ADVISORY AREA...NRN MTW COUNTY...DID NOT GET AS MUCH RAIN. HAVE
NOT RECEIVED ANY REPORTS OF FLOODING IN THIS AREA...SO WL BE
DROPPING THE MTW ADVISORY SHORTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A COLD
FRONT POSITIONED FROM AROUND LA CROSSE TO IRON MOUNTAIN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO EXPAND ALONG
IT...AIDED BY WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF AN
UPPER JET. THE STORMS HAVE BEEN BEHAVING SO FAR TODAY...BUT ARE
DROPPING A QUICK HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN WITHIN A HUMID
AIRMASS. BEHIND THE FRONT...A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS IS PUSHING
SOUTHEAST AS EVIDENT BY DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 50S AND
UPPER 40S. PRECIP TRENDS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH
THE EVENING...FOLLOWED BY CLOUDS AND TEMPS.
THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND EXIT THE
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN SHORELINE BY EARLY TO MID-EVENING. WITH A MOIST
AND HUMID AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PWATS NEARING 1.75
INCHES...AND ML CAPES OF 400-800 J/KG...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD NOT
HAVE ANY PROBLEM HOLDING THEIR OWN INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. THE
TIME OF ARRIVAL TOOL HAS THE STORMS MOVING INTO THE FOX VALLEY
BETWEEN 20-21Z...AND APPROACHING THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AROUND
00Z THOUGH ISOLATED CELLS MAY POP AHEAD OF THE LINE. EVEN WITH THE
INCREASING INSTABILITY OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN AHEAD OF THE
LINE...WARM MID-LEVELS AROUND 700MB AND HIGH FREEZING LEVELS WILL
LIMIT THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. 0-6KMB BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE
GREATER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED AT AROUND 25-30 KTS...SO WILL HAVE
TO LOOK OUT FOR AN ISOLATED WIND THREAT...BUT THE THREAT IS PROBABLY
TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE HWO. BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL SEE PARTIAL
CLEARING WITH A VEIL OF CIRRUS OVERHEAD.
MIDNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BETTER CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE
LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS THE CIRRUS DEPARTS. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND DRAG IN THE LESS HUMID AIR...WHICH SUPPORTS
LOW TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO UPPER 50S SOUTH. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. SOME OF THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL GET TRAPPED BENEATH THE
INVERSION...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A SCT CU FIELD BY LATE MORNING. NO
THREAT OF PRECIP THOUGH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH
TO MID 70S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
ACTIVE ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. SEVERAL EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES OF VARYING
INTENSITY ARE FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN CONUS BRINING
SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GUIDANCE
NOTORIOUSLY TENDS TO STRUGGLE WITH TIMING...INTENSITY AND LOCATION
OF THE INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES...AND THAT WAS THE RULE AGAIN IN
THIS MODEL CYCLE. BECAUSE THIS IS A GENERALLY LOW CONFIDENCE
SCENARIO...OPTED NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...AND MAINTAINED BROAD CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
EXTENDED.
NEXT IN THE SERIES OF DISTURBANCES STILL LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY. FORTUNATELY IT APPEARS THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
STREAMING OUT OF TEXAS AROUND MID-WEEK SHOULD GET SHUNNED JUST TO
OUR SOUTHEAST....BUT WILL BEAR WATCHING. EVEN SO...STILL ADEQUATE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR THIS DISTURBANCE TO WORK WITH. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST UNTIL
ABOUT 12Z THURSDAY...TO BE FOLLOWED BY A DRY DAY OR SO BEFORE A
POTENTIALLY MORE VIGOROUS SYSTEM BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA EARLY
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM HAS POTENTIAL TO BRING
RATHER SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE RAINFALL TO PARTS OF WISCONSIN AS
WELL AS SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. TOO EARLY TO DECIPHER THE
DETAILS FOR THE WEEKEND SYSTEM.
ESB.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE AND
COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEGIN TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA. DESPITE
RELATIVELY SMALL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS CURRENTLY ACRS THE
AREA...EXPECT ENOUGH OF A SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LOW-LEVEL CAA
TO KEEP FG FM BECOMING A PROBLEM.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ESB
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
912 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
.UPDATE...
RAIN SHOWERS ARE PUSHING OFF WITH PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. WINDS HAVE COME AROUND TO THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...WITH NORTHEAST
WINDS ALONG THE LAKE IN THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER LOWER DEW POINTS
REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTHWEST AND WILL PUSH INTO SRN WI LATE
TONIGHT. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG IN LOW-LYING AREAS LATE THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS UNTIL THIS DRIER AIR REACHES
THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
IFR CLOUDS AT KMKE DUE TO NE WINDS OFF THE COOL LAKE BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW MOVING INTO HIGHER DEW POINT AIR LINGERING OVER SRN
WI BEHIND THE LOW...ALTHOUGH NOCTURNAL COOLING ALSO PRODUCING SOME
SCT TO BKN MVFR CIGS INLAND WITH DEW POINTS HOLDING IN THE 60S.
DRIER AIR WORKING NW TO SE ACROSS SRN WI FOLLOWING SREF
PROBABILITIES THAT KEEP THE CHANCE FOR THESE LOW CLOUDS AT KMKE
DOWN TO KENW THROUGH 06Z...WITH THE RAP SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOWING
IMPROVEMENT AROUND 06Z. WILL WATCH TRENDS THROUGH ISSUANCE BUT
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 03Z AND
09Z WITH THE DRIER AIR.
&&
.MARINE...
LAST LOOK AT WEB CAMS BEFORE DARK SHOWS CLEAR TO THE HORIZON
LINE...THOUGH SOME PATCHY FOG AT WINTHROP HARBOR AND LOW CLOUDS
REPORTED AT MILWAUKEE AND RACINE AIRPORTS CLOSE TO THE LAKE. COULD
STILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT...BUT DRIER AIR WORKING ACROSS
THE REGION WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015/
TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING THROUGH WI TODAY IS PRODUCING A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE STATE. MOST OF THE
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY IN NORTHEAST WI AS OF 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS IS TIED TO THE STRONGER UPPER DIVERGENCE DUE TO THE PLACEMENT
OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND MID LEVEL VORTICITY ADVECTION. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST
OF THE STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING... CLEARING
SOUTHEAST WI BY 02Z/9 PM.
ML CAPE AND SHEAR ARE LIMITED ACROSS SOUTHERN WI THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES... PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE FRONT. BRIEF
GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
EXPECT QUIET WEATHER WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS FROM LATE EVENING
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING HIGH CLOUDS.
TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
DRY AIR OVER THE REGION AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL FINALLY ALLOW FOR
A QUIET WEATHER DAY ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE EAST AS THE HIGH SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ON TUESDAY. THE EASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE FUELED BY A LAKE
BREEZE... SO EXPECT COOLING TEMPERATURES NEAR THE LAKE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP US MOSTLY DRY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 50S MOST PLACES. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST COULD HELP TO PULL UP SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT THAT/S A PRETTY SMALL CHANCE AT THIS POINT. THE MODELS
ARE ADJUSTING TOWARD A DRY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS RETURNING BY AFTERNOON WITH THE LOW MOVING IN. CONVECTION
SHOULD BE CONFINED SOUTH OF THE BORDER EARLY ON AND WE/LL LIKELY
HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE SFC TROF TO GET IN HERE BEFORE WE SEE ANY
DEVELOPMENT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND EXIT ON THURSDAY. THERE IS CONCERN THAT IT COULD TAP INTO THE
COPIOUS MOISTURE SOURCE TO THE SOUTH AND RESULT IN SOME HIGHER
PRECIP AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST LATE WED NGT/THU MORNING
BEFORE THE TROF/CDFNT EXITS SOUTHEAST. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS
LIKE THAT ACTION WILL STAY JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND CHANCY
POPS ARE GENERALLY SUFFICIENT FOR THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS SOME CAPE
AND SHEAR AVAILABLE WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT NOTHING MAJOR AND THE
MARGINAL SEVERE RISK FROM SPC LOOKS SUFFICIENT.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE NEXT WEEKEND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.
WE SHOULD SEE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS. BUT...BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND MOVE VERY SLOWLY
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WE/LL SEE PRECIP CHANCES RETURN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE THE WETTEST AS THE LOW
MOVES THROUGH. IT/S TOO EARLY TO TELL IF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE A
THREAT AT THIS POINT...BUT IT IS A MORE ENERGETIC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. WE MAY THEN SEE IT DRY OUT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A COLD FRONT
SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORMS WILL
LOWER THE VSBYS AND CIGS AT TIMES. EXPECT THUNDER TO END BY 8 PM AND
SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF SHORTLY AFTER.
PLAN ON VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS NORTHERLY
WINDS GRADUALLY DRY OUT THE ATMOSPHERE. WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY
BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING.
MARINE...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE STILL PRESENT OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS...
MAINLY SOUTH OF SHEBOYGAN PER WEBCAMS. THUS... ISSUED A MARINE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 00Z/7 PM THIS EVENING. THE THREAT OF FOG WILL
DIMINISH AS SOON AS NORTHERLY WINDS USHER DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION
BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...DAVIS
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST OVER WEST-CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. OUTSIDE OF A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS...THE WARM FRONT IS LARGELY
INACTIVE OVER MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
GENERATING SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA...BUT IT IS ALSO QUIET ELSEWHERE ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
CLOSER TO HOME...CLOUD COVER IS GRADUALLY BREAKING UP AS HEATING
HELPS MIX INTO DRIER AIR ABOVE THE INVERSION. CLEARING SHOULD ALSO
WORK INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WI FROM THE WEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TRENDS...AND FOG
POTENTIAL.
TONIGHT...SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STALLED FROM APPROX.
LA CROSSE TO SHEBOYGAN. MEANWHILE...A POCKET OF DRY AIR IN THE MID-
LEVELS WILL EXIST NEAR THE WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT
WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN LATE. THIS DRY AIR SHOULD
KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. THE LONE EXCEPTION
WILL BE OVER N-C WISCONSIN WHERE SOME SHOWERS COULD SNEAK INTO THAT
AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HAVE THOUGHT ABOUT ADDING A CHANCE OF A
SHOWER ALONG THE WARM FRONT...BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT IN THE UPPER
SUPPORT THAT THE NAM PRODUCES. OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLEARING THIS EVENING IF NOT MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...WHICH
WILL PROMOTE FOG FORMATION ONCE AGAIN. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE
REASONABLY LOW EVERYWHERE...SO HARD TO POINT TO A FAVORED AREA.
LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH.
MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND PASS OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI DURING THE MORNING...AND EASTERN WI IN
THE AFTERNOON. PRECIP COVERAGE UPSTREAM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS
NOT IMPRESSIVE...SO DID NOT WANT TO TAKE POPS INTO THE LIKELY RANGE.
BUT THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF JET STREAK DOES PROVIDE SOME UPPER
SUPPORT...SO FELT COMPELLED TO LEAVE PRECIP IN THE HIGH CHANCE AREA.
IF HEATING OCCURS OVER THE EAST...ML CAPES COULD REACH UP TO AROUND
500 J/KG. BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ONLY AROUND 20 KTS...SO ANY
STORMS THAT POP UP SHOULD BE OF THE PULSE VARIETY...WITH LITTLE
CHANCES OF ANYTHING SEVERE. HIGHS WILL APPROACH 80 OVER EASTERN
WISCONSIN...BUT REMAIN IN THE MID 70S OVER THE NORTH WHERE RAIN
COULD OCCUR DURING THE MORNING.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
NEAR ZONAL FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK AND TO SOME DEGREE EVEN
INTO NEXT WEEKEND PROVIDES PCPN CHANCES NEARLY EVERY OTHER DAY OR
TWO WITH TIMING THESE FEATURES THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE. INITIAL
SHORT WAVE SLIDING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND NEAR
THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL DRAG A COOL FRONT EAST OF THE STATE LATER
MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL MODEL TIMING CONSENSUS DEPARTS ANY
CONVECTION TO THE EAST MONDAY EVENING...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE
A MENTION OVER PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN DUE TO THE RRQ
REGION OF THE UPPER JET PASSING OVER.
HIGH PRESS DRIFTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY PRIOR TO THE NEXT SUBTLE SHORT WAVE WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE AREA IS
PROGGED TO PASS OVER FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...A BIT SLOWER
PASSAGE PROBABLY DUE TO GRADUALLY BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS.
ECMWF ALSO DROPS A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS NEXT WEEKEND WHILE THE GFS SPLITS UP THE ENERGY A BIT IN
THE WESTERLY FLOW. NEVERTHELESS...PCPN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL NOT BE
TOO FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA. DUE NOTICE SOME OF THE STABILITY PROGS
SHOW MORE INSTABILITY FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH SATURDAY THE FOCUS
AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH PARTIAL CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST AIR MASS MAY PRODUCE MORE
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......TDH/MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1132 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.UPDATE...
SKIES ARE BREAKING UP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI LATE THIS MORNING.
BUT... CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING UPSTREAM. THE HI-RES MODELS ARE
SHOWING SPECKLES OF PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHERN WI THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE SUPER-MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND FORECAST STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOWING UP ON THE RAP BUFKIT SNDGS. THUS... ADDED
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST.
THIS PERIOD OF RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
IS IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CLEARING
SOUTHEAST WI. THERE IS ALSO A LULL IN THE MID LEVEL VORTICITY
ADVECTION AND UPPER DIVERGENCE. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB UP TO AROUND
80 AND LOWER 80S INLAND. AN ONSHORE BREEZE WILL KEEP LAKESHORE TEMPS
IN THE 70S.
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO SPREAD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI LATE
TONIGHT AND ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN WI MONDAY MORNING. A FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH WI DURING THE DAY AND LEAD TO MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WI MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
IFR CIGS ARE IMPROVING TO MVFR AND VFR FROM NW TO SE THIS MORNING AS
A WEAK FRONT DROPS THROUGH SOUTHEAST WI. THERE IS A PERIOD OF QUIET
WEATHER AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT. DIURNAL CUMULUS
CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING UPSTREAM ALREADY AND EXPECT THIS TO OCCUR OVER
SOUTHERN WI THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA
AS WELL.
MOST OF TONIGHT SHOULD BE DRY... AND PROBABLY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
THEN EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN WI LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING MORE IFR OR LOWER
CIGS AND VSBY. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
AREA AS A FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE STATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON ON MONDAY AS A VERY
HUMID AIRMASS RESIDES OVER THE RELATIVELY COLD WATERS OF LAKE MI.
AREAS OF DENSE FOG COULD CONTINUE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT SINCE
DRIER AIR DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL TUESDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE
SRN AND ERN CWA THIS MORNING ENDING BY LATE MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES AWAY. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH DIFFERENTIAL AVA BRINGING SOME SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING. SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS NEAR 80F WELL
INLAND. A LAKE BREEZE MAY SUPPORT SOME FOG NEAR THE LAKE THROUGH THE
DAY HOWEVER. FOR TNT...A HUMID AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO
FOG REDEVELOPMENT. THERE WILL BE CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS LATE AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY WITH SOME
LEADING PVA AND THETAE ADVECTION AT 850 MB.
MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF UPPER JET COMBINED WITH APPROACHING
SURFACE TROUGH WILL TAP INTO THE PERSISTENT MOIST INSTABILITY TO
PRODUCE MORE SHRA/TSRA. SHORTWAVE AXIS STARTS OFF IN IA AT 12Z AND
THEN SHIFTS ENE INTO SRN LAKE MI BY DAYS END. THE NAM CONTINUES TO
SHOW MUCH HIGHER CAPE VALUES AND PREFER THE MORE SUBDUED LOOK OF
THE GFS WITH CAPE VALUES COMING IN UNDER 1000 J/KG. BASED ON
CONSENSUS OF NAM/GFS/ECMWF WILL LINGER SOME POPS INTO MONDAY
EVENING.
TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE QUIET LOOK WITH SURFACE HIGH
DOMINATING WITH A COOLER AND DRIER NE WIND REGIME. THIS CONTINUES
INTO MUCH OF TUESDAY NIGHT WITH 12Z ECMWF/00Z NAM SHOWING SOME
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE INTO SW CWA LATER IN THE NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM
MODELS SHOW BUCKLE IN THE FAST WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW. MODELS
SHOW SOME ENTRANCE REGION JET ACTION TAKING PLACE WITH TIMING AND
PLACEMENT AGREEMENT ON STORM DEVELOPMENT TO OUR SOUTH. 00Z ECMWF
IS QUITE A BIT FASTER ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WHILE THE
GFS LAGS OUR PRECIP FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEST LLJ FORCING REMAINS
SOUTH AND EAST OF CWA. CWASP NUMBERS ARE QUITE LOW ON THE ECMWF
AND CANADIAN BUT THE GFS DOES SHOW MID 60S TO LOW 70S. GFS ALSO
SHOWS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 WITH BORDERLINE FAVORABLE
BULK SHEAR PARAMETERS. WILL FOLLOW SUPERBLEND POPS FOR NOW WHICH
AS PRECIP BOTH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM
THE GFS AND ECMWF HANG UP THE BOUNDARY CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
POPS FOR SRN WI. MEANWHILE THE GEM SUGGESTS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE. SUPERBLEND HANDLES THIS DISPARITY WELL SO WILL NOT
DEVIATE.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
POTENTIAL FOR MORE TSRA THIS PERIOD AS 850 LLJ STARTS TO AIM MORE
INTO SRN WI WITH PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE REMAINING TO OUR WEST. 925
TEMPS REACH NEAR 20C FRIDAY AND THEN ARE PROGGD TO RISE DEEPER
INTO THE 20S CELSIUS FOR SATURDAY SO POTENTIAL FOR 80S TO MAKE A
COMEBACK WITH EARNEST...ESP ON SATURDAY WHERE 925 FLOW IS DUE
SOUTHERLY AND ANY HEATING MAY YIELD HIGHS DEEP INTO THE 80S.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/....CIGS BELOW 500 FEET ARE BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AREAS OF FOG AND VSBYS OF 1/2
MILE TO 2 MILES. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE ENDING FOR THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY. THE CIGS
WILL GRADUALLY RISE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON
OCCURRING THE LATEST OVER ERN WI. THE FOG WILL ALSO BURN OFF WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF OVER AND NEAR LAKE MI. MVFR VSBYS MAY CONTINUE OVER
KMKE FOR THE AFTERNOON. A HUMID AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO
MORE FOG DEVELOPMENT TNT. PREVAILING VSBYS WILL RANGE FROM 1-3 MILES
BUT LOCALLY LOWER VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE.
MARINE...EXPECT DENSE FOG TO REDEVELOP OVER THE LAKE LATER THIS
MORNING AFTER THE RAIN ENDS AND DEWPOINTS INCREASE. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON ON MONDAY AS A VERY HUMID AIRMASS
WILL RESIDE OVER THE RELATIVELY COLD WATERS OF LAKE MI. AREAS OF
DENSE FOG COULD CONTINUE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT SINCE DRIER AIR
DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL TUESDAY.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT MONDAY FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COLLAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
949 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 948 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2015
CONVECTION STRENGTH IS DWINDLING THIS EVENING AS INSTABILITY
WANES. ASIDE FROM A TORNADO PRODUCING THUNDERSTORM EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON WEST OF ROCK RIVER...CONVECTION ON THE WHOLE HAD
DIFFICULTY BECOMING SFC BASED IN THE COOLER DAY 1 OF THE POST-
FRONTAL AIR MASS. ASIDE FROM SOME HEAVY RAIN...THE ONGOING COMPLEX
MOVING ACROSS LARAMIE/PLATTE COUNTIES WAS DOING LITTLE TO BE
CONCERNED WITH FROM A SEVERE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE. SO HAVE OPTED TO
CANCEL THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. WV IMAGERY DEPICTS WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE NR THE WY/ID
STATELINE AT THIS HOUR. THIS FTR WILL PUSH THRU NRN/CENTRAL
WYOMING BY SUNRISE AND REACH THE DAKOTAS BY MIDDAY TUESDAY.
UPSTREAM RADARS AND SATELLITE PIX SHOW SEVERAL ADDL THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CWFA DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. 00Z NAM DATA CONTINUES TO POINT AT LEAST AT THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
STATE. SO...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES TO BE JUSTIFIED.
INITIAL LOOK AT 00Z DATA SUGGESTS TOMORROW TO BE ACTIVE AS
MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2015
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF OUR
SOUTHEAST WY ZONES EXCEPT NIOBRARA COUNTY THROUGH 11 PM. MLCAPE IS
UP TO 1000-1500 J/KG ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. BULK
SHEAR IS AROUND 40 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS LESS UNSTABLE (CAPE
LESS THAN 1000 J/KG) ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS WHERE LOW CLOUDS
HAVE BEEN MORE PERSISTENT. CONVECTION HAS BROKEN OUT OVER
CARBON/ALBANY COUNTIES WITH A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SVR CELLS.
THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW THIS CONVECTION EVOLVES THROUGH THE
EVENING AS IT MOVES INTO AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
THE HRRR DOES INDICATE SOME STRONGER STORMS THROUGH 03Z OVER
SOUTHEAST WY BEFORE THE ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE CLUSTERED AND
MULTICELLULAR ESPECIALLY OVER CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA COUNTIES. ALL
OF THE MODELS SHOW A GOOD AMOUNT OF QPF THROUGH SUNRISE TUESDAY IN
THE NORTHERN ZONES AND NORTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST WY. THIS IS WHERE
THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING
SHORTWAVE. ALTHOUGH THE STEERING FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY SLOW
(20-25 KTS)...WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING SINCE SOME OF
THE EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE CELLS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY
RAIN. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY LATE TONIGHT.
THE DECENT RISK FOR SVR STORMS TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
CONTINUES TO LOOK ON TRACK FOR TUESDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE MUCH
BETTER ON TUES OVER THE PLAINS AND ESPECIALLY THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. THE SFC TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE WY-NE BORDER
DURING THE AFTN AND THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE TRIGGER FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION. THE COMBINATION OF BULK SHEAR OF 45-50 KTS AND CAPES
NEAR 1500 J/KG WILL PROMOTE A GOOD CHANCE OF STORMS TO BECOME
SUPERCELLULAR. THINKING IS LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT AS
LLVL SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK AND HODOGRAPHS ARE STRAIGHT. SPC HAS
MUCH OF THE PLAINS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR WEATHER ON TUES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2015
WEDNESDAY...SOUTHEASTERLY LLVL FLOW WILL BE DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTN WITH GOOD INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. COULD SEE ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF STRONG TO SVR STORMS
GIVEN THAT BULK SHEAR IS 35-40 KTS.
THURSDAY...MOSTLY DRY AND QUITE WARM WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT PRODUCING ENOUGH CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
FRIDAY...FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS OUT WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALOFT MOVING
ACROSS...THOUGH WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...MINIMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY...MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES ACROSS AND WITH
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND CORRESPONDING
DECREASE IN WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WILL SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
SUNDAY...HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE WITH FLOW TURNING NORTHWEST AND WITH
DRIER LOW AND MID LEVELS...WILL SEE A DECREASE IN AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AREAL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 550 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2015
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST WY
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. GUSTY WINDS
AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH MVFR VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
AFTER 06Z. LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AROUND 10Z...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF IFR CIGS AT AIA AND
SNY. SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO GUST TO 20-25 KTS OVER THE PANHANDLE
THROUGH THE NIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2015
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS
AND EVENINGS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 15-20 PERCENT TO
THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON THESE DAYS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR WYZ101>103.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CAH
SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...CLH/RUBIN
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...ZF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
559 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2015
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF OUR
SOUTHEAST WY ZONES EXCEPT NIOBRARA COUNTY THROUGH 11 PM. MLCAPE IS
UP TO 1000-1500 J/KG ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. BULK
SHEAR IS AROUND 40 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS LESS UNSTABLE (CAPE
LESS THAN 1000 J/KG) ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS WHERE LOW CLOUDS
HAVE BEEN MORE PERSISTENT. CONVECTION HAS BROKEN OUT OVER
CARBON/ALBANY COUNTIES WITH A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SVR CELLS.
THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW THIS CONVECTION EVOLVES THROUGH THE
EVENING AS IT MOVES INTO AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
THE HRRR DOES INDICATE SOME STRONGER STORMS THROUGH 03Z OVER
SOUTHEAST WY BEFORE THE ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE CLUSTERED AND
MULTICELLULAR ESPECIALLY OVER CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA COUNTIES. ALL
OF THE MODELS SHOW A GOOD AMOUNT OF QPF THROUGH SUNRISE TUESDAY IN
THE NORTHERN ZONES AND NORTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST WY. THIS IS WHERE
THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING
SHORTWAVE. ALTHOUGH THE STEERING FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY SLOW
(20-25 KTS)...WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING SINCE SOME OF
THE EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE CELLS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY
RAIN. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY LATE TONIGHT.
THE DECENT RISK FOR SVR STORMS TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
CONTINUES TO LOOK ON TRACK FOR TUESDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE MUCH
BETTER ON TUES OVER THE PLAINS AND ESPECIALLY THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. THE SFC TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE WY-NE BORDER
DURING THE AFTN AND THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE TRIGGER FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION. THE COMBINATION OF BULK SHEAR OF 45-50 KTS AND CAPES
NEAR 1500 J/KG WILL PROMOTE A GOOD CHANCE OF STORMS TO BECOME
SUPERCELLULAR. THINKING IS LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT AS
LLVL SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK AND HODOGRAPHS ARE STRAIGHT. SPC HAS
MUCH OF THE PLAINS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR WEATHER ON TUES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2015
WEDNESDAY...SOUTHEASTERLY LLVL FLOW WILL BE DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTN WITH GOOD INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. COULD SEE ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF STRONG TO SVR STORMS
GIVEN THAT BULK SHEAR IS 35-40 KTS.
THURSDAY...MOSTLY DRY AND QUITE WARM WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT PRODUCING ENOUGH CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
FRIDAY...FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS OUT WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALOFT MOVING
ACROSS...THOUGH WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...MINIMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY...MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES ACROSS AND WITH
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND CORRESPONDING
DECREASE IN WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WILL SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
SUNDAY...HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE WITH FLOW TURNING NORTHWEST AND WITH
DRIER LOW AND MID LEVELS...WILL SEE A DECREASE IN AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AREAL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 550 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2015
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST WY
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. GUSTY WINDS
AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH MVFR VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
AFTER 06Z. LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AROUND 10Z...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF IFR CIGS AT AIA AND
SNY. SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO GUST TO 20-25 KTS OVER THE PANHANDLE
THROUGH THE NIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2015
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS
AND EVENINGS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 15-20 PERCENT TO
THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON THESE DAYS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WYZ101>103.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...CLH/RUBIN
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...ZF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
314 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015
WEAK FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE REGION WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS BEHIND IT. TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE SFC TROUGH FROM
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN COLORADO INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THESE STORMS
ARE NOT MAKING MUCH HEADWAY TO THE WEST AND ARE RATHER STATIONARY.
MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW AN UPTICK IN SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE ALONG AND
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AFTER 00Z. THE HRRR DOES SHOW SOME
STRONGER STORMS INITIATING OVER THE NORTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND
MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CONVERSE AND NORTHERN PLATTE COUNTIES FROM
00-03Z. LAPS ANALYSIS DOES SHOW 1500 J/KG OF CAPE UP THERE ALONG
WITH A BIT STRONGER FLOW ALOFT THAT YIELDS DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF
AROUND 30KTS. THE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT WOULD SUPPORT SMALL HAIL
OR EVEN A MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM THROUGH THE EVENING. THE TSTM
THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY NIGHT (A BIT LATER THAN NORMAL)
OVER MAINLY SOUTHEAST WY AS THE MODELS INDICATE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. GENERALLY HAVE 40-50 PERCENT POPS THROUGH 06Z. ALSO
ADDED PATCHY FOG ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE BY LATE TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH
THIS WILL DEPEND ON ANY ONGOING RAIN.
LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY TO THE EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE IN PLACE.
INSTABILITY IS WEAK OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS IN THE POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS. THE GFS SHOWS THE BEST INSTABILITY ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE
WITH CAPE VALUES OF 1250-1500 J/KG. SPC HAS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WY IN
A MARGINAL RISK AND THIS LOOKS GOOD. STORMS COULD WAIT TO INITIATE
UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE SINCE THERE WILL BE
A GOOD DEAL OF INHIBITION THROUGH THE DAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH CENTRAL WY BY THE EVENING AND MOVE ACROSS EASTERN WY DURING
THE NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE STORMS GOING...SOME
POTENTIALLY STRONG... THROUGH SUNRISE ON TUES ESPECIALLY OVER
CONVERSE/NIOBRARA COUNTIES. THE BEST SVR THREAT IS STILL LOOKING
LIKE TUES AFTN OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE WY-NE BORDER BY THE AFTN WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
EAST OF THE DRYLINE. WITH DEWPOINTS OF 55-60F AND WARM SFC
TEMPS...CAPE IS UP TO 2500 J/KG...AND BULK SHEAR IS 45-50 KTS...A
GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONG SUPERCELLS AND LARGE HAIL.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015
AN ACTIVE PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT STAYING INTACT OVER THE CWA. WHILE MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY
IN THE TIMING/PLACEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES...PERSISTENT LEE
TROUGHING AND PERIODIC LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION EACH AFTN/EVE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE EVENT APPEARS TO BE WED EVENING WITH EXCELLENT
CONVERGENCE AND EASTERLY UPSLOPE NEAR THE SFC. THE GFS SUGGESTS DEW
POINTS IN THE 50S ALONG/EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH SBCAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 1500-2500 J/KG. STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP BOOST 0-6
KM SHEAR VALUES TO 40+ KTS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...SO SEVERE
CONVECTION COULD VERY WELL BE A HAZARD. BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW
LONG IT TAKES TO ERODE THE CAP WITH WARM AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE
WEST. GENERALLY A TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONAL WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. FRIDAY COULD BE RATHER WARM
WITH GFS/ECM H7 TEMPS IN THE 16-18 DEG C RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA BENEATH FLAT RIDGING. LATEST MEX GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPPER 80S
INTO THE MID 90S FROM CYS TO SNY... BUT HARD TO SAY HOW MUCH
AFTERNOON CU WILL IMPACT HIGHS. CONTINUED TO TREND WARMER IN THIS
PATTERN. THINK WE WILL STILL HAVE AT LEAST A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AROUND ON THU/FRI...BUT STRONG CAPPING IS
LIKELY WITH SUCH WARM THERMAL PROFILES. KEPT THINGS ISOLATED FOR
THE TIME BEING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST AREAS TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCALLY MVFR CIGS WILL OCCUR OVER THE KAIA
AND KCDR. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE BENEATH HEAVIER
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALONG WITH GUSTY/ERRATIC
WINDS. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KCYS AFTER 06Z
WITH LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW...MVFR ELSEWHERE THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AFTER A
COOLER DAY ON MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 20-30
PERCENT TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOONS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...ZF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
251 AM MST TUE JUN 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS...HOTTER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH HOTTEST READINGS
BETWEEN 107 AND 112 FROM TUCSON INTO THE LOWER DESERTS THURSDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. A MOISTURE INCREASE FROM THE EAST WILL BRING THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME STORMS WILL GENERATE STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS WE HEAT UP.
&&
.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RECENT MODEL DATA SHOWS STRONG
RIDGING OFF THE WEST COAST OF BAJA WITH A WEAK TROUGH TO OUR EAST
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG DEMARCATION BETWEEN DRY AIR TO
THE WEST AND MORE MOIST AIR TO THE EAST CAN BE SEEN IN WV IMAGERY...
WITH THE DRY AIR COVERING MUCH OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC...BAJA...
SONORA AS WELL AS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN ARIZONA. THIS
DRY/MOIST AIR INTERFACE ACROSS ARIZONA CAN BE QUANTIFIED BY LOOKING
AT THE SATELLITE DERIVED BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT
WHICH SHOWS VALUES OF AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA...AROUND 0.70 - 0.80 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF ARIZONA AND
VALUES EXCEEDING AN INCH AND EVEN AROUND 1.3 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LINGERING SCATTERED MID LEVEL
DEBRIS CLOUDS AS WELL AS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THESE DEBRIS CLOUDS HAVE ALSO SPREAD INTO
EASTERN ARIZONA OVER PORTIONS OF GREENLEE...GRAHAM AND COCHISE
COUNTIES.
YESTERDAY THE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED WAS A BIT MORE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY THAN ANTICIPATED. WE HAD THE WHITE MOUNTAINS COVERED
WELL...BUT GRAHAM AND COCHISE COUNTIES NOT AS MUCH. THERE WAS A WIND
GUSTS AT THE SAFFORD AIRPORT OF 51 MPH WITH ONE OF THESE STORMS
DROPPING OFF THE RIM. IN ADDITION...HIGH TEMPS TODAY WERE
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN EXPECTED...REACHING 108 DEGS AT TIA. THAT
SAID...LOOKING AT THE MOST RECENT MODELS IT LOOKS LIKE TODAY WILL BE
A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY...THUNDERSTORM WISE...IF NOT A BIT MORE
ACTIVE. MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT CAPE MAKING ITS WAY WESTWARD IN THE
EASTERLY/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MODELS SHOW LIFTED INDICES OF
AROUND MINUS 3 TO 5 OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE HRRR AND THE U OF A WRF/NAM & GFS ALSO
SUGGEST A VERY SIMILAR SOLUTION...WHICH SHOWS SCATTERED ACTIVITY
BETWEEN TUCSON AND THE BORDER WITH NEW MEXICO. SO...I NUDGED POPS UP
JUST A TAD MORE THAN WHAT THE EVENING SHIFT HAD...WHICH MEANS
SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER GREENLEE...GRAHAM...COCHISE AND PERHAPS EVEN
EASTERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTY...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY AS FAR WEST AS
THE TUCSON AREA. WEST OF TUCSON...NO REAL THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION.
COULD SEE A FEW OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP BETWEEN TUCSON AND THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS APPROACHING SEVERE
LIMITS (GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH POSSIBLE).
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE IN ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD ESSENTIALLY CUT OFF THE MOISTURE INTO
ARIZONA...OR AT LEAST PUSH IT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO. WILL STILL SHOW MOSTLY SINGLE DIGIT `SILENT` POPS ACROSS
EXTREME EASTERN ARIZONA...ALONG THE IMMEDIATE BORDER WITH NEW
MEXICO.
BY THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WATERS JUST WEST OF THE SRN CALIFORNIA AND NRN BAJA COAST IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD. BY
LATE THIS WEEKEND IT IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER ARIZONA. THIS
SETUP WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH VERY HOT TEMPERATURES...
WITH THE POTENTIAL TO CRACK THAT 110 DEGREE MARK FOR TUCSON AND
AREAS WEST...ESPECIALLY FOR SATURDAY...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE
FOR FRIDAY AS WELL AS SUNDAY.
LOCAL STUDY CORRELATING HIGH TEMPS WITH 850-700MB THICKNESS VALUES
SUGGEST 109 DEGS FOR FRIDAY...110 DEGS SATURDAY AND 108 DEGS SUNDAY
AT TIA. MODELS ALSO SHOW A 592 DECAMETER HIGH OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...593DM SATURDAY AND 594-596 DM HIGH FOR SUNDAY. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST THE HOTTEST DAY TO BE ON SUNDAY. ALL THAT SAID...DECIDED TO
BUMP UP INHERITED HIGHS JUST A TAD MORE...SO AT THIS POINT I AM
GOING WITH 109 DEGS FOR FRIDAY...110 DEGS SATURDAY AND 109 DEGS FOR
SUNDAY AT TUCSON. SIMILAR VALUES WILL OCCUR FARTHER WEST OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN PIMA COUNTY. THEREFORE HIGH TEMPS
FOR TUCSON GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE 6 TO 8 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL EACH
DAY...BUT THE WARMEST DAYS LIKELY TO OCCUR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOWS
AROUND 5 TO 7 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WITH THE HIGH SPRAWLED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE A DRY FORECAST.
HOWEVER...MODELS DO SHOW ACTIVITY DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE
SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTALS FRIDAY AND NUDGING CLOSER TO SOUTHERN
ARIZONA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE...I
INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG THE BORDERS WITH NEW
MEXICO AND OLD MEXICO (SPECIFICALLY PORTIONS OF COCHISE COUNTY).
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THROUGH 17/12Z.
FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 10K FT THROUGH MID-MORNING WILL INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO TERRAIN. MOISTURE PUSHING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PRIMARILY
EAST OF KTUS/KOLS LINE. STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOWS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE LESS
THAN 10 KTS WITH SOME AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING GUSTS TO NEAR 20
KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
TUCSON EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. OTHERWISE...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA
ALONG WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 5
TO 10 PERCENT...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS
AROUND 15 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ANY THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS. SOME
BREEZINESS FROM THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS DUE TO STRONG SURFACE HEATING. OCCASIONAL HAINES
6 CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.CLIMATE...MID-JUNE NEAR RECORD HEAT IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS
WEEK. HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR JUNE 16-19.
DATE JUNE 16 JUNE 17 JUNE 18 JUNE 19
TUCSON INTL AIRPORT 109/1988 109/2008 113/1989 112/1989
BISBEE-DOUGLAS AIRPORT 104/2008 105/2008 108/1989 108/1989
AJO 112/1916 113/1917 114/1936 114/1968
FORT THOMAS 109/1978 111/1959 111/1960 115/1960
ORGAN PIPE CACTUS 110/1993 111/2001 114/1989 115/1960
PICACHO PEAK 111/2000 111/2008 112/1989 111/2002
SAFFORD AG STATION 102/2000 99/2014 101/2003 101/2008
SIERRA VISTA FD 102/1989 103/1989 107/1989 106/1989
TOMBSTONE 105/1985 105/1980 107/1989 108/1989
WILLCOX 105/1948 105/1985 106/1989 108/1989
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MOLLERE
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...FRENCH
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
328 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015
BY SUNRISE THIS MORNING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND AREA OF UPLIFT
OVER NORTHWEST CO WILL HAVE MOVED TO SE WY AND INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS...BUT IT APPEARS THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE VORT MAX THAT
MOVED THROUGH NORTHERN NV OVERNIGHT AND INTO EASTERN UT WILL STILL
BE DRAGGING THROUGH WEST-CENTRAL CO THIS MORNING WITH A FEW
SHOWERS EXITING THE AREA EAST OF EAGLE AND VAIL BEFORE NOON. DRIER
AIR WILL THEN CONTINUE FILTERING INTO EASTERN UT AND THEN WESTERN
CO. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM MAINLY THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.
TONIGHT WILL SEE CONTINUED DRYING AS A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SW
U.S. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND RELATIVELY HOT WITH CONVECTION
CONFINED TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND POINTS EAST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015
SUBTROPICAL HIGH CORE POSITIONED OVER THE SWRN CONUS SHUTS DOWN
ANY MOISTURE PLUMES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A DIGGING SHORT WAVE
INTO MONTANA ON SATURDAY TIGHTENS WESTERLY GRADIENT FLOW ACROSS
COLORADO. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME AFTERNOON BREEZES...BUT
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER IMPACT GIVEN ROBUST RAIN AMOUNTS DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE...FORECASTED AFTERNOON
TEMPS LEAVES NO DOUBT THAT SUMMER HAS ARRIVED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015
THE 06Z TAFS REFLECTS HRRR MODEL TRENDS WITH A BAND OF
SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL COLORADO BETWEEN 10Z-16Z
TODAY. ONCE THIS BAND MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...THEN
DIURNAL DRIVEN STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WRN COLORADO. AIR MASS
MAY STABILIZE OVER MUCH OF ERN UTAH. BUT MODEST CAPE VALUES STILL
EXIST FOR WRN COLORADO FOR SCATTERED STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER SW
COLORADO. FOR MOUNTAIN TAF SITES...ANY PASSING STORMS COULD LOWER
CIGS BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH DIMINISHING
STORMS AFTER 03Z TUESDAY EVENING.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
106 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 106 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015
SHORT WAVE PROVIDING ENOUGH UPSTAIRS BOOST TO COUNTERACT ANY
NOCTURNAL "STABILIZATION". LATEST SATELLITE INFRARED SHOWING
POCKETS OF COOLING CLOUD TOPS. THIS SUPPORTS TRENDS OFFERED BY THE
HRRR MODEL WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING INTO WEST CENTRAL
COLORADO BETWEEN 10Z-16Z. UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS TREND.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 814 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2015
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER EXTREME NE UT AND
NW CO UNTIL A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGH GRADUALLY WEAKENING WITH
TIME. THE BEST JET SUPPORT AND UPLIFT APPEARS TO BE SLIDING NORTH
OF THE AREA AND BARELY CLIPPING DAGGETT COUNTY. HAVE UPDATED THE
PRECIP AND CLOUD GRIDS FOCUSING ON THOSE AREAS WITH HIGHER POPS
AND MORE CLOUD UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2015
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE A BIT GREATER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME
LARGELY DUE TO A SLIGHT UPTICK IN MOISTURE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
STORMS WERE TRACKING TO THE WEST AT AROUND 15 MPH. STRONGER CELLS
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL TO 0.5
INCHES WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40 MPH. A SHORTWAVE BRUSHING
THE NORTH WILL LIKELY ENHANCE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING. DRYNESS IN LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE COMBINED
WITH MIDDLING ENERGY COULD GENERATE STRONGER WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BORDER AREAS OF THE FORECAST...POSSIBLY PEAKING IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S. THIS WAVE WILL HELP SUSTAIN MOIST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WELL INTO THE EVENING BEFORE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER NEAR
NORMAL...BUT JUST A BIT BELOW GUIDANCE.
WE ARE GOING TO SEE A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERE BEGIN TO EXPAND OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST STATES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS. PWAT ANOMALY TABLES ARE FINALLY SHOWING A DOWNWARD
TREND TO MORE SEASONAL READING NEAR A THIRD OF AN INCH OVER EASTERN
UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO BY THURSDAY AND WELL BEYOND. THERE WILL BE
A SUBTLE WAVE DROPPING ACROSS INTO OUR CENTRAL CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A SECOND WAVE SWINGING ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE
AFTERNOON...THEN LASTLY A WAVE DRIFTING ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS DURING
THE LATE EVENING TO EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE PASSING WAVES REMAINS WEAK TO MODERATE AS THE
ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT TOMORROW. REALLY EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO
REMAIN FOCUSED ON THE TERRAIN TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEYS WITH THE
INITIAL WAVE IN THE AM HOURS TUESDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT DUE TO FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
PUSHING NEAR MID JUNE NORMALS ACROSS THE REGION...TEMPERED ONLY BY
REMAINING SNOW PACK AND AREAS STILL SATURATED FROM THE RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2015
RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL BE DOMINATING
THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WE WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN A ZONAL PATTERN ON THE
FRINGE OF THE HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. AS
THE DRY PERIOD EXTENDS IN TIME SOILS AND VEGETATION WILL BE DRYING
AND THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS WILL
SATURDAY WILL BRIEFLY SUPPRESS THE HIGH SOUTHWARD BUT THE IMPACT
ON TEMPERATURES WILL BE MINIMAL. AS THE RIDGE REBOUNDS ON SUNDAY
BEHIND THE SYSTEM...MID LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING IS AT A PEAK ACROSS
THE LOWER DESERTS AND HIGHS IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS MAY EXPAND OUT OF
THE 4 CORNERS REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015
THE 06Z TAFS REFLECTS HRRR MODEL TRENDS WITH A BAND OF
SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL COLORADO BETWEEN 10Z-16Z
TODAY. ONCE THIS BAND MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...THEN
DIURNAL DRIVEN STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WRN COLORADO. AIR MASS
MAY STABILIZE OVER MUCH OF ERN UTAH. BUT MODEST CAPE VALUES STILL
EXIST FOR WRN COLORADO FOR SCATTERED STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER SW
COLORADO. FOR MOUNTAIN TAF SITES...ANY PASSING STORMS COULD LOWER
CIGS BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH DIMINISHING
STORMS AFTER 03Z TUESDAY EVENING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 313 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2015
CONDITIONS CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS
ALONG RIVERS AND STREAMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DECREASED
RAINFALL HAS ALLOWED OPERATORS TO REDUCE RELEASES FROM VALLECITO
RESERVOIR AND THE AREAL FLOOD ADVISORY THERE HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
THAT SAID...THE LOS PINOS RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH AND
FAST. MEANWHILE...BOTH THE ROARING FORK RIVER NEAR ASPEN AND THE
EAGLE RIVER NEAR REDCLIFF CONTINUED TO RUN NEAR...OR A LITTLE
ABOVE BANKFULL. LATEST FORECASTS FROM CBRFC INDICATED THESE
LOCATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HIGH FLOWS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MOST MOUNTAINS HAVE SEEN THEIR PEAK IN
SNOWMELT WHICH...WHEN COMBINED WITH A DRYING TREND LATER THIS
WEEK...SHOULD ALLOW WATER FLOW ON RIVERS AND STREAMS TO EASE
DOWNWARD.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...NL/15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...PF
HYDROLOGY...TGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
314 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND MAY BE
PRECEDED BY A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE USHERS SEASONABLE WEATHER INTO THURSDAY PRIOR TO A COLD
FRONT AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AND SEASONABLE BENEATH RENEWED
HIGH PRESSURE. THOUGH AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED BY SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WET-WEATHER APPROACHING FROM THE W
MEETING UP WITH THE REMNANTS OF BILL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TODAY AS WINDS
BECOME S/SW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN SO EXPECT CLOUDS
WILL HANG TOUGH THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHICH MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY.
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH LATER TODAY WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT THROUGH N NEW ENG THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE FROPA
EXPECTED THIS EVENING IN SNE. A PREFRONTAL TROF MAY SET UP IN SNE
THIS AFTERNOON AND SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
TSTMS. 0-6KM SHEAR OF 35-40 KT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS
FAIRLY ROBUST BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE LACKING. ECMWF HAS NO SFC
INSTABILITY WHILE NAM/GFS GENERATE AROUND 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE BUT
NAM ONLY SHOWING MLCAPES LESS THAN 500 J/KG. IN ADDITION...MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER MEAGER. HRRR AND ARW/NMM ALL SHOW SCT
CONVECTION MOVING INTO SNE THIS AFTERNOON SO WHILE WE ARE
CONFIDENT THAT SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS WILL DEVELOP...THINK
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED UNLESS THERE IS MORE SUN THAN
FORECAST ALLOWING FOR GREATER INSTABILITY. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
PRIMARY THREAT GIVEN PWATS INCREASING OVER 2".
CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 70S TODAY BUT IT
WILL BECOME HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY E
HALF NEW ENGLAND THEN COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SNE 00-06Z
FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION.
MIN TEMPS MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
WEDNESDAY...
LARGE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO NEW ENG BRINGING SUNSHINE AND LIGHT
WINDS. TEMPS MOSTLY 75 TO 80 DEGREES WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
LEVELS. SEABREEZES WILL DEVELOP WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS
ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* SEASONABLE AND DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
* SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
* AGAIN SEASONABLE AND DRY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
* COULD TURN WET BEGINNING SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION...
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW THRU WHICH PACIFIC-ORIGIN DISTURBANCES USHER BOUTS
OF ACTIVE WEATHER FOLLOWED BY PERIODS OF COOL-DRY RELIEF. THOUGH
SOME POTENTIAL FLIES IN THE OINTMENT: 1. MAINTENANCE OF ANOMALOUS
HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND THE WATERS S OF NOVA SCOTIA
AS INDICATED BY THE 14- AND 30-DAY H5 HEIGHT AND MSLP ANOMALIES...
AND 2. REMNANTS OF BILL. A BLEND OF FORECAST GUIDANCE IS PREFERRED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTIES.
SO WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE ROUND-A-
BOUT PATTERN OF HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER AIR FOLLOWED BY RETURN S/SW-
FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER-MAKER WHICH IS
ANTICIPATED THURSDAY NIGHT. COULD SEE SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE E-COAST.
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT SWEEPS S NEW ENGLAND BUT WITHIN A
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LACK OF DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FORCING PER FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT TO MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EMBEDDED HEAVIER
RAIN FROM UPSTREAM EARLIER DAYTIME CONVECTIVE ACROSS NY / PA. LITTLE
CONFIDENCE CONCERNING CONVECTION / THUNDER. SCATTERED EXPECTATIONS
YIELD CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
WILL HOLD FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS DRY. HIGH PRESSURE YIELDS COOL-
DRY CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY NW-WINDS ON FRIDAY. PERHAPS A GOOD PERIOD
OF RADIATIONAL COOLING FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS. RETURN S-FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING.
AS WE GO FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THINKING THE INDICATIONS
OF A N-STREAM DISTURBANCE MEETING UP WITH THE REMNANTS OF BILL AS
INFERRED FROM A CONSENSUS OF FORECAST GUIDANCE WILL MAKE FOR AN
ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD OF WET-WEATHER. BUT AGAIN UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR
OUT IN THE FORECAST AND THINGS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE. CHANCE POPS
WARRANTED. BROAD-BRUSH FORECAST WITH A MENTION OF THUNDER.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z...WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR IN STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG.
TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR/LIFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL IMPROVE
TO MVFR WITH SOME VFR POSSIBLE AWAY FROM THE COAST IN THE
AFTERNOON. TIMING OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS IS UNCERTAIN. SCT
SHOWERS AND TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. IMPROVING TO VFR AS WINDS SHIFT TO NW
BEHIND A COLD FRONT...BUT AREAS OF IFR STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG OVER
CAPE/ISLANDS WILL LINGER THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEABREEZES LIKELY.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. IMPROVING TO MVFR/VFR
LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS WINDS BECOME S/SW.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. WINDS VEERING S. E/SE SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE E-SHORE DURING THE
DAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LOW-END VFR. POSSIBLE MVFR FOR HIGH TERRAIN. SCT -SHRA. POSSIBLE
+RA. S/SW-WINDS BACKING NW AND BECOMING BREEZY WITH COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR. NW-BREEZY WINDS FRIDAY TURN LIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT VEERING S BY
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARDS THE LATER-
HALF OF THE PERIOD. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST PERIOD DRY.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TODAY...WINDS BECOME SW TODAY WITH SPEEDS WELL BELOW SCA. AREAS
OF FOG WILL LIMIT VSBYS THIS MORNING.
TONIGHT INTO WED...A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT
AND A PERIOD OF POST FRONTAL NORTHERLY GUSTS TO 25-30 KT POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. SCA ISSUED FOR WATERS AROUND AND E
OF CAPE COD WHERE STRONGEST GUSTS EXPECTED. WINDS DIMINISH WED
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS VEERING S. PERHAPS BREEZY LATE WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. E/SE
SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE E-SHORE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. SEAS REMAIN
BELOW 5-FEET.
THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS DISSIPATING TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING. S/SW-WINDS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE...BACKING NW AND REMAINING BREEZY
WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TOWARDS MORNING. SEAS REMAIN BELOW
5-FEET.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
NW-BREEZY WINDS FRIDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS TURN LIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT VEERING S BY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
KTS. INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARDS THE LATER-HALF OF THE PERIOD. WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST PERIOD DRY WHILE SEAS REMAIN BELOW 5-FEET.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ231-232-255-256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ250-254.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...KJC/SIPPRELL
MARINE...KJC/SIPPRELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
120 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
A COLD FRONT OVER WISCONSIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT CAUSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA TUESDAY... CONFINING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA AND THEN LIFT BACK NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN BACK TO THE AREA. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S... WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH HAS BEEN STNRY FOR SOME TIME TO OUR NORTH
WAS BEGINNING TO MAKE SEWD PROGRESS TODAY IN RESPONSE TO A SHRTWV
MOVG ACROSS ONTARIO MERGING WITH SECOND SYSTEM LIFTING NE FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA WITH
PWATS AROUND 2" HAS DESTABILIZED IN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY ALLOWING
NUMEROUS TSTMS TO DEVELOP. SOME BACKBUILDING/TRAINING CELLS OCRG
ATTM AS SUGGESTED BY RAP 5-10KT UPWIND PROPAGATION VECTORS. LATEST
HRRR SUGGESTS SCT-NUMEROUS STORMS WILL CONT LATE THIS AFTN AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WITH MORE WIDESPREAD TSTMS FORMING ALONG THE FRONT
LATE THIS AFTN AND MOVG THROUGH OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. THUS... STILL
APPEARS TO BE A GOOD SETUP FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS OUR AREA
SO FFA ISSUED EARLIER TODAY WILL CONT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
CDFNT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE STALLING OUT ON
TUE. SOME LINGERING POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS PSBL IN THE MORNING AND WK
INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW A FEW MORE TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN... BUT
OVERALL APPEARS TO BE A DAY TO DRY OUT.
WK CAA BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE 60S
TONIGHT WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS ALLOWING HIGHS TO
REACH THE L-M80S ON TUE.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
WET PATTERN AND FLOODING CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A CONSISTENT SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FEED PUMPS PWAT
VALUES AOA 2.0" INTO THE CWA. ONLY DAY OF RELIEF IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD MAY BE FRIDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SLIDES THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES AND TRIES TO SLIDE OUR PESKY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOUTHWARD. SOME PRECIP IS STILL POSSIBLE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY ON
FRIDAY...BUT THE HIGHLY EFFICIENT WARM CLOUD PROCESSES WILL CEASE
NORTH OF THE FRONT. THE REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY
IN THE WESTERN GULF ADVECT INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND
RETURN THE MUGGY CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHERN LAKES. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF INDICATE THE TROPICAL SYSTEM MAY PHASE WITH A NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE AND DEVELOP A SUB 1000MB SURFACE REFLECTION IN THE
VICINITY OF THE GREAT LAKES. A DECENT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES MAY BE JUST WHAT WE NEED TO FINALLY SHUNT THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND USHER IN DRIER CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS OVER AND STRATIFORM RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AS
SURFACE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. SOME POSTFRONTAL IFR
STRATUS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...BUT UPSTREAM SURFACE OBS ARE
HIGHLY VARIABLE SO JUST WENT WITH TEMPO MENTION FOR NOW. STRONG
PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE/DRY AIR WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE
MORNING THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ EARLY THIS MORNING
FOR INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.
MI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
MIZ077>081.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR OHZ001-
002-004-005-015-016-024-025.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...AGD
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1140 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY:
NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WHILE A MID-UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTION OF
THE NORTHERN BRANCH WAVE...WILL CONTINUE PUSHING INTO SOUTHEASTERN
KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTHWEST
TUESDAY MORNING...THEN WASHING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. ANOMALOUSLY
RICH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIRMASS (~1.75 IN.) WILL PERSIST OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS AND WILL HAVE RELATIVELY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES IN
THOSE AREAS...WHERE WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS POSSIBLE UNDER
WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT. LATEST SPC HRRR VERSION PUSHES CURRENT
CONVECTION OUT OF SOUTHEAST KS BY MID EVENING...WITH A SIGNIFICANT LULL
THEREAFTER. WOULD THINK EVEN IF THIS HAPPENS...THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SHEAR AXIS EMANATING FROM WEST TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD...COULD IGNITE
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ~4KM OR GREATER
AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS FAVOR LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. IN
ADDITION...SOUNDING PROFILES WOULD ALSO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED WET
MICROBURST OR TWO.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY:
WITH REGARD TO THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE HEADING
INTO SOUTH TEXAS LATE TONIGHT...THE GFS...ECMWF...AND NAM-WRF OFFER
VASTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. THIS IS NOT SURPRISING GIVEN THE
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY THAT THIS SYSTEM
COULD IMPACT FAR SOUTHEAST KS SOMETIME LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY IF THE GFS AND NAM ARE MORE CORRECT...ALTHOUGH THE NAM
APPEARS TOO FAST WITH THE NORTH-NORTHEAST MOVEMENT. THE ECMWF
INDICATES ANY IMPACTS TO SOUTHEAST KS WOULD NOT COME UNTIL FRIDAY-
FRIDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...OVERALL CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/TRACK OF THIS
DISTURBANCE IS LOW AT THIS JUNCTURE.
NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES BUT HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST DURING
THIS ENTIRE PERIOD.
JMC
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
THE REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ARE PROGGED TO PUSH WELL
EAST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND...WHILE A FAIRLY
STRONG/AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE ECMWF WAS STRONGER WITH THE
AMPLIFCATION...DRIVING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. IT HAS AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. THE GFS DID NOT AMPLIFY THE SHORTWAVE AS MUCH...AND AS A
RESULT BRINGS THE FRONT TO CENTRAL KS NEAR I-70 BEFORE STALLING THE
BOUNDARY. A COMPROMISE OF THESE SOLUTIONS WOULD BRING THE FRONT INTO
THE HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES RATHER WARM...ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE IN
THE FORECAST...COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED.
JMC
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT FAR SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION FOR TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL VEER OUT TO THE SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
JAKUB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 68 83 69 86 / 20 50 20 20
HUTCHINSON 66 83 67 87 / 20 20 20 20
NEWTON 66 82 68 85 / 20 40 20 20
ELDORADO 68 82 69 85 / 30 60 30 40
WINFIELD-KWLD 69 83 70 85 / 30 60 40 40
RUSSELL 63 83 66 88 / 0 10 20 10
GREAT BEND 64 83 66 88 / 10 20 20 10
SALINA 66 83 68 87 / 10 20 20 20
MCPHERSON 66 83 68 87 / 10 20 20 20
COFFEYVILLE 70 82 71 82 / 60 70 60 60
CHANUTE 69 82 70 83 / 50 60 60 60
IOLA 69 82 69 83 / 50 60 50 60
PARSONS-KPPF 70 82 71 83 / 60 70 60 60
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
345 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STILL HOLDING OVER SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY...THOUGH A COLD FRONT IS MOVING CLOSER TO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH. ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY ONGOING
CONVECTION IS TRACKING WEST TO EAST FROM SOUTHERN INDIANA THROUGH
OHIO. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS MAY BRUSH THE FAR NORTHERN
REACHES OF OUR CWA BY DAWN. OTHERWISE...IT IS A QUIET NIGHT
THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUPPORTING ANOTHER
SMALL TO MODERATE RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE ON THE
ORDER OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES. SPECIFICALLY THE READINGS VARIED FROM
THE MID 70S TO THE MID 60S...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS
GENERALLY FROM 65 TO 70 DEGREES. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...ANY
VALLEY FOG OUT THERE IS NOT SHOWING UP IN THE OBS OR SEEN ON AREA
WEB CAMS.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT THE PERSISTENT
SOUTHEAST RIDGE WEAKENING A BIT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TOPPING IT AND RIDING EASTWARD ON ITS NORTHERN FRINGE.
THIS MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL BRUSH THROUGH NORTHERN KENTUCKY
TODAY...DOWNSTREAM OF LANDFALLING TROPICAL STORM BILL OVER THE
WESTERN GULF. TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THIS WILL WORK INTO THE
SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY LATER IN THE WEEK...THOUGH THERE IS CURRENTLY
HIGH PW AIR...APPROACHING TWO INCHES...JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA.
GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
SOLUTIONS OF THE HRRR AND NAM12 THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...BUT WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS AND INCREASED
COVERAGE THROUGH THE AREA...THOUGH STILL FAVORING THE NORTH. THE
CONVECTION AND CLOUDS THAT RESULTS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS IN THE
NORTH...AND PLACES THAT SEE RAIN...A BIT COOLER THAN THOSE OF
YESTERDAY. THE STORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP TODAY COULD BE
ORGANIZED RESULTING IN A THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY
RAINS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN THE FORTHCOMING HWO.
EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO SETTLE DOWN LATER THIS EVENING...BUT WITH
THE FRONT NEARBY CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ACTIVITY DURING THE NIGHT. AGAIN LATE NIGHT PATCHY VALLEY FOG AND
MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THE FRONT LOOKS TO RELOAD ON
WEDNESDAY AS IT STARTS TO TAP THE MOISTURE FROM BILL WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY FOR THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THESE STORMS ON WEDNESDAY MAY BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN SLIGHTLY BETTER UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...WILL ALSO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.
AGAIN THE T/TD/WINDS GRIDS WERE STARTED OFF FROM THE SHORTBLEND
GUIDANCE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SUPERBLEND. DID
MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOWS TONIGHT FOR TERRAIN
DISTINCTIONS. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSEST TO THE HIGHER MET
MOS NUMBERS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS KEPT THE REGION PERSISTENTLY
WARMER THAN NORMAL THIS PAST WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO EXERT ITS
INFLUENCE TO SOME EXTENT ON THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS TO
BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE ABLE
TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS THAT WILL
STILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY SHOULD
DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY ONCE THE SUN GOES DOWN...WITH MOST OF THE
AREA BEING RAIN FREE BY 5 OR 6Z THURSDAY. RENEWED ACTIVITY IS THEN
EXPECTED TO FIRE UP DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...ONCE WE GET SOME
DAY TIME HEATING GOING AND A SLUGGISH FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN
PARKED WELL NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER FINALLY BEGINS TO SLIDE
SOUTHWARD. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FROM THURSDAY ONWARD WILL BE HOW
WELL DEFINED THE BOUNDARY IS WHEN IT MOVES INTO OUR AREA. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE...BUT CONSISTENT FRONTAL FORCING
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY COULD BE. THE MODELS DIFFER
GREATLY LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE GFS BEING MUCH WETTER OVERALL
THAN THE ECMWF. IT APPEARS THAT THE ECMWF HAS A DIFFICULT TIME
RESOLVING A CONSISTENT SURFACE TRIGGER...WHILE THE GFS PRODUCES A
MORE WELL DEFINED FRONT AND ALSO HAS ITS FRONT A BIT FURTHER
SOUTHWARD THAT THE ECMWF. DUE TO ALL THIS UNCERTAINTY...DECIDED NOT
TO GO TO HIGH WITH PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH 30 TO 40 POPS ON AVERAGE EACH
DAY...WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. ANOTHER POTENTIAL PLAYER IN PRECIP CHANCES TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE REMNANTS OF TC BILL. THE
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION RECEIVED ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGIONS WILL DEPEND ALOT ON HOW MUCH INFLUENCE BILL IS ABLE
TO HAVE ON THE REGION. THIS WILL BE THE KEY TO WATCH AS WE APPROACH
THE END OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH DAY TIME HIGHS GENERALLY MAXING OUT IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S...WITH BALMY NIGHTLY LOW TEMPERATURES ONLY FALLING TO
AROUND 70.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
AFTER A QUIET NIGHT WHERE ANY PATCHY FOG STAYS IN THE VALLEYS AND
AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES...WIND SHOULD INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST TO GENERALLY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS BY MIDDAY
WITH SPOTTY CONVECTION REFIRING AROUND NOON TUESDAY. DUE TO
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING SYM...AS WELL AS JKL AND SJS...APPEAR TO HAVE
THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SEEING CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING HOURS OF TUESDAY. MVFR CIG AND VIS CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS...BUT FOR THE MOST PART VFR WILL
HOLD SWAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
208 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
PER THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR/NAM12 HAVE
DROPPED POPS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
DID ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM IN THE FAR NORTH TOWARD
DAWN. OTHERWISE...JUST TOUCHED UP THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS BASED ON THE
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS AS WELL AS INFLUENCE FROM THE SHORTBLEND
GUIDANCE. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1058 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
THE 0Z NAM AND MOST RECENT HRRR RUN FROM 01Z SUGGEST THE REMAINDER
OF THE OVERNIGHT COULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS
POINT...DO NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO REMOVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE NORTH LATE. OTHERWISE...HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATION.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 830 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
CONVECTION HAS WANED OVER THE PAST HOUR AS WE APPROACH SUNSET. A
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE REGION
STILL IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF A QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE
NORTH OF THE REGION. NEAR TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM12 AS WELL AS
RECENT HRRR RUNS DEVELOP SOME CONVECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN KY. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
ALREADY HAD SOME POPS LATE IN THE NORTH AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED
AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER
THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
CONTINUATION OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS FIRING WITH DAYTIME HEATING IN AN ARC ON THE
NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. DESPITE THE STAGNANT LOOK IN THE
MID LEVELS...A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING BY WELL TO OUR NORTH WILL
FORCE A SUBTLE SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH THE 850 MB JET AXIS INTO OUR
AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS BEEN A GOOD INDICATOR OF
WHERE THE BETTER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE HAS BEEN IN RECENT
DAYS AND ITS SOUTHWARD SHIFT WILL HELP INCREASE OUR ALREADY HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT UP TOWARDS 2 INCHES. THIS SHOULD SPELL
BETTER COVERAGE FOR THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON
TUESDAY COMPARED TO WHAT WE ARE SEEING TODAY. IT WILL ALSO RESULT
IN A SMALL THREAT FOR A SHOWER OR STORM GOING THROUGH TONIGHT IN
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND FOR ALL AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. LAPSE RATES
REMAIN MEAGER SO LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AS THE
PERIOD STARTS. THE CONVECTIVE RING OF FIRE ON ITS PERIMETER IS
EXPECTED TO BE JUST TO OUR NORTH...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE A
LITTLE BIT BETTER SHOT AT PRECIP IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS DEPICT THE CONVECTIVE BELT
SHIFTING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD OVER OUR AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT
ALSO BEING A LITTLE LESS ACTIVE. A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERLIES OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS SHOULD SEND A COLD FRONT TOWARD
OUR REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FALLS BOTH
FAVOR A DECENT SHOT AT SOME THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING IS UNCERTAIN
THOUGH...AND ONLY CHANCE POPS ARE BEING USED AT THIS POINT. THE
PUSH OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE LOOSING ITS
MOMENTUM BY THE TIME THE FRONT REACHES US...SO NO SIGNIFICANT
RELIEF FROM HUMIDITY IS SEEN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
AFTER A QUIET NIGHT WHERE ANY PATCHY FOG STAYS IN THE VALLEYS AND
AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES...WIND SHOULD INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST TO GENERALLY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS BY MIDDAY
WITH SPOTTY CONVECTION REFIRING AROUND NOON TUESDAY. DUE TO
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING SYM...AS WELL AS JKL AND SJS...APPEAR TO HAVE
THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SEEING CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING HOURS OF TUESDAY. MVFR CIG AND VIS CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS...BUT FOR THE MOST PART VFR WILL
HOLD SWAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
456 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A WNW FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE UPR GRT LKS TO THE S OF UPR TROF CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY.
A DRY...STABLE AIRMASS PER THE 00Z INL ROAB...WHICH SHOWED PWAT NEAR
0.50 INCH /70 PERCENT OF NORMAL/ AND SHARP SUBSIDENCE INVRN NEAR
H775-8...IS MOVING INTO THE UPR LKS. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME SCT-BKN
SC/AC OVER UPR MI EARLY THIS MRNG ASSOCIATED WITH SOME HIER RH JUST
BLO THE INVRN BASE AND THE PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD FNT...BUT
THESE CLDS ARE TENDING TO SLOWLY DISSOLVE UNDER LARGE SCALE DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG SHRTWV RDG AXIS.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...SFC HI PRES IS CENTERED ALONG THE NDAKOTA/CNDN
BORDER. BUT MORE CLDS IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SHRTWV OVER THE NRN
ROCKIES THAT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ZONAL FLOW ARE SPREADING EWD
THRU THE NRN PLAINS UP TO NEAR THE SFC HI PRES CENTER.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON TEMPS TODAY AND ON CLD
TRENDS/NEED FOR POPS TNGT.
TODAY...DNVA/LARGE SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE AND TREND FOR
INCRSG ACYC LLVL FLOW WL RESULT IN A CONTINUED DIMINISHING OF
LINGERING SC/AC OVER UPR MI EARLY THIS MRNG. AS SFC HI PRES BLDS
OVER LK SUP TODAY...EXPECT MOSUNNY SKIES WITH ONLY SOME SCT DIURNAL
CU DVLPG UNDER LINGERING H85 THERMAL TROF/H85 TEMPS 3-4C. SOME HI
CLDS WELL IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS WL ALSO
ARRIVE OVER THE W LATER IN THE DAY. MIXING TO SUBSIDENCE INVRN BASE
NEAR H8 WL RESULT IN HI TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 60S. BUT LLVL NNW FLOW
OFF THE CHILLY WATERS OF LK SUP IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG SFC HI PRES
CENTER MAY HOLD DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE 50S NEAR THE LK...ESPECIALLY E
OF MARQUETTE.
TNGT...MODELS SHOW INCRSG H85-5 RH W-E TNGT IN ADVANCE OF UPSTREAM
SHRTWV MOVING INTO MN BY 12Z WED. BUT SINCE THE SHARPER DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC/MOST IMPRESSIVE H85 THETA E ADVCTN ARE FCST TO REMAIN
TO THE W OF THE CWA WITH LINGERING VERY DRY NEAR SFC AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH SLOWLY EXITING SFC HI PRES CENTER...MANY OF THE
MODELS BRING ACCOMPANYING PCPN NO FARTHER E THAN WRN LK SUP THRU 12Z
WED. WL RETAIN SCHC POPS OVER THE FAR W LATE TNGT TO ACCOUNT FOR
THOSE MODELS THAT CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOME PCPN INTO THAT AREA.
THICKENING CLDS WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL...BUT MINS WL STILL
FALL WELL INTO THE 40S OVER THE E WITHIN LINGERING DRY AIR AND WHERE
THE THICKER CLDS WL ARRIVE LATEST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 456 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL KEEP THE OFF AND ON SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SHOWERS WILL SLIDE INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY...AND SLOWLY SHIFT INTO
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT POPS MAINLY IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE RANGE FOR ALL BUT FAR W ZONES. NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT
GETTING ANYTHING OVER A FEW HUNDREDTHS WITH THIS ONE.
DRIER AIR WILL AGAIN BUILD IN THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA IN THE FORM OF HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE THE GFS IS EXTREMELY DRY...THE
MAJORITY OF THE SOLUTIONS DO SHOW AT LEAST SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY. THE MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN THE CLOUDY NAM
AND CLEAR GFS LOOKS TO BE THE ECMWF...AND OUR ONGOING FCST.
TANKED LOWS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING BY 5F OR SO...WITH FEW
IF ANY CLOUDS...PW VALUES RANGING FROM 0.25 OVER FAR N WI /NAM
SOLUTION/ TO AROUND 0.6IN /HIGH END OF GFS/...AND NEARLY CALM WINDS
UNDER THE SFC HIGH. KEPT IWD A BIT WARMER THAN MOST OF THE COOL
GUIDANCE THROUGH...GIVEN THE RETURN FLOW AS THE HIGH SLOWLY EXITS E
FRIDAY.
EXPECT A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS...TO
RETURN LATER FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE NOW COME IN DRY
FOR SUNDAY. THIS GOES AGAINST THE 30 PERCENT POPS THAT WE WOULD HAVE
BLENDED TO...SO HAVE DONE SOME EDITING TO GO A LITTLE DRIER. MAY
NEED TO TAKE POPS OUT COMPLETELY DEPENDING ON THE NEXT SET OF MODEL
RUNS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL BRING VFR
CONDITIONS TO KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
ALTHOUGH A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THRU THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND CAUSE VARYING WINDS...A
RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND HI STABILITY OVER THE CHILLY LAKE
WATERS WILL HOLD WINDS UNDER 20KTS THRU THE WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
346 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A WNW FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE UPR GRT LKS TO THE S OF UPR TROF CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY.
A DRY...STABLE AIRMASS PER THE 00Z INL ROAB...WHICH SHOWED PWAT NEAR
0.50 INCH /70 PERCENT OF NORMAL/ AND SHARP SUBSIDENCE INVRN NEAR
H775-8...IS MOVING INTO THE UPR LKS. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME SCT-BKN
SC/AC OVER UPR MI EARLY THIS MRNG ASSOCIATED WITH SOME HIER RH JUST
BLO THE INVRN BASE AND THE PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD FNT...BUT
THESE CLDS ARE TENDING TO SLOWLY DISSOLVE UNDER LARGE SCALE DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG SHRTWV RDG AXIS.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...SFC HI PRES IS CENTERED ALONG THE NDAKOTA/CNDN
BORDER. BUT MORE CLDS IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SHRTWV OVER THE NRN
ROCKIES THAT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ZONAL FLOW ARE SPREADING EWD
THRU THE NRN PLAINS UP TO NEAR THE SFC HI PRES CENTER.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON TEMPS TODAY AND ON CLD
TRENDS/NEED FOR POPS TNGT.
TODAY...DNVA/LARGE SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE AND TREND FOR
INCRSG ACYC LLVL FLOW WL RESULT IN A CONTINUED DIMINISHING OF
LINGERING SC/AC OVER UPR MI EARLY THIS MRNG. AS SFC HI PRES BLDS
OVER LK SUP TODAY...EXPECT MOSUNNY SKIES WITH ONLY SOME SCT DIURNAL
CU DVLPG UNDER LINGERING H85 THERMAL TROF/H85 TEMPS 3-4C. SOME HI
CLDS WELL IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS WL ALSO
ARRIVE OVER THE W LATER IN THE DAY. MIXING TO SUBSIDENCE INVRN BASE
NEAR H8 WL RESULT IN HI TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 60S. BUT LLVL NNW FLOW
OFF THE CHILLY WATERS OF LK SUP IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG SFC HI PRES
CENTER MAY HOLD DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE 50S NEAR THE LK...ESPECIALLY E
OF MARQUETTE.
TNGT...MODELS SHOW INCRSG H85-5 RH W-E TNGT IN ADVANCE OF UPSTREAM
SHRTWV MOVING INTO MN BY 12Z WED. BUT SINCE THE SHARPER DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC/MOST IMPRESSIVE H85 THETA E ADVCTN ARE FCST TO REMAIN
TO THE W OF THE CWA WITH LINGERING VERY DRY NEAR SFC AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH SLOWLY EXITING SFC HI PRES CENTER...MANY OF THE
MODELS BRING ACCOMPANYING PCPN NO FARTHER E THAN WRN LK SUP THRU 12Z
WED. WL RETAIN SCHC POPS OVER THE FAR W LATE TNGT TO ACCOUNT FOR
THOSE MODELS THAT CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOME PCPN INTO THAT AREA.
THICKENING CLDS WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL...BUT MINS WL STILL
FALL WELL INTO THE 40S OVER THE E WITHIN LINGERING DRY AIR AND WHERE
THE THICKER CLDS WL ARRIVE LATEST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD...LEADING TO SEVERAL SHORTWAVES PUSHING EAST ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WHILE THE
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON GENERAL IDEA ON THE
TIMING/LOCATION OF THE SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA...CONFIDENCE ISN/T HIGH ENOUGH TO REALLY PIN DOWN THE FINER
DETAILS AS SUBTLE VARIATIONS CAN GREATLY AFFECT THE OVERALL
FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DEPARTING THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A
THE FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES APPROACH THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING OVER THE U.P. THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT. AS THAT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA...SHOULD SEE
SOME RAIN SHOWERS PUSHING EAST IN THE WESTERN U.P. TIED TO THE
850-700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF THE WAVE. WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY SPREAD CHANCE POPS EAST INTO THE WESTERN CWA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE REST OF
THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODEL MUCAPE VALUES SHOW
LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER...ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN INCREASE IN THE
700-500MB LAPSE RATES (ONLY TO 6.5C/KM) LATER IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY
BUT BELIEVE THAT WILL BE LARGELY AFTER THE MAIN PRECIPITATION.
THUS...DECIDED TO PULL THE THUNDER CHANCES FROM ALL BUT THE SOUTH
CENTRAL WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES.
THE AREA WILL SEE A BRIEF DRY PERIOD OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THE
FIRST PART OF THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE REST OF THE DAY THURSDAY.
MOISTURE IS PRETTY LIMITED WITH THE FRONT AND THE BEST FORCING
SHIFTS EAST THROUGH ONTARIO...SO CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO GO WITH
ANYTHING MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS IT MOVES THROUGH. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
WILL SPREAD CHANCE POPS INTO THE AREA WITH THIS WAVE AND WILL NEED
TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW IN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
FRIDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A SECONDARY WAVE ARRIVING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS WAVE WILL STRENGTHEN THE LOW AND LIKELY DEVELOP A
WARM FRONT EASTWARD THROUGH WISCONSIN. THAT SHOULD BE THE FOCUS OF
MOST OF THE CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...KEEPING IT
PREDOMINATELY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT STILL THINK WE WILL
SEE SOME SHOWERS ON THE NORTH END AND WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR
THAT PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER...AS
THE AREA IS ON THE GRADIENT OF THE BETTER INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH.
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO WESTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY AND THEN INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION FOR SUNDAY. THAT WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN
AND MAYBE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA. THE WAVE WILL DEPART
SUNDAY NIGHT AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ARRIVING BEHIND THE WAVE
SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL BRING VFR
CONDITIONS TO KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
ALTHOUGH A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THRU THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND CAUSE VARYING WINDS...A
RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND HI STABILITY OVER THE CHILLY LAKE
WATERS WILL HOLD WINDS UNDER 20KTS THRU THE WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
352 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
AT 330 AM...IT WAS CLEAR ACROSS THE CWA. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WERE
SPREADING IN FROM THE DAKOTAS...REACHING NW AND WC MN. TEMPS
RANGED FROM THE MID 30S IN THE NORTH TO 60 AT SAXON HARBOR. MOST
LOCATIONS WERE IN THE 30S NORTH AND 40S SOUTH WITH LIGHT WINDS.
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE EARLY TODAY...TO LOW PRESSURE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING IN A WETTER DIRECTION FOR
THE MOST PART...AND WE HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THE MOST PART.
TODAY SHOULD START OUT CLEAR AND COOL ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE IN THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE EASTWARD AS THE DAY WEARS ON.
SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY HIGH
AND MID CLOUDS. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE BRAINERD
LAKES REGION FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRENT MODEL
TRENDS. IN FACT...THE 06Z RAP SHOWS PRECIPITATION REACHING KDLH BY
00Z THIS EVENING. THE 07Z HRRR ONLY GOES THROUGH 22Z BUT HAS
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA AT THAT TIME. THE HOPWRF
IS A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH SOME OF THEIR MEMBERS BUT GENERALLY
HAS PRECIPITATION EXPANDING INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.
GIVEN THE TRENDS...WILL HAVE HIGH POPS IN THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA
LATER TODAY. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT TRICKIER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE
PAST FEW DAYS. WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WILL LIKELY SEE A COOL DOWN AFTER REACHING
DAYTIME MAXES...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST. AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
WILL ALSO SEE A COOL DOWN AS A LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPS THIS AFTN.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AND
WE HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE IN THE SOUTH.
HAVE STAYED WITH MAINLY CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTH AND IT MAY
ACTUALLY REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE BORDER REGION. QPF AMOUNTS
OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE HALF INCH RANGE IN THE
BRAINERD LAKES REGION...WITH A QUARTER INCH FURTHER EAST INTO THE
TWIN PORTS AND THE UPPER SAINT CROIX RIVER VALLEY. LESSER AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED NORTH AND EAST. COULD BE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTH LATER TONIGHT.
WEDNESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A WET DAY FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON...SPECIFICALLY IN THE
NORTH AND WEST. THE 06Z NAM HAS STARTED TRENDING IN FAVOR OF THE
GFS...AND HAS A HIGHER AREA OF QPF FROM THE HEAD OF THE LAKES INTO
NEIGHBORING AREAS OF NW WI. AMOUNTS WILL BE VARIABLE BUT WE COULD
SEE SOME BASIN AVERAGE AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE POPS ALIGNED WITH FROPA. A
SECOND...WEAKER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKS INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE
AREA BY 06Z THURSDAY AND HAVE SOME POPS HERE AS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN MODELS. THE NAM HAS A BIT OF QPF ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
AFTER 06Z...THE GFS IS DRY WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE ROBUST WITH ITS
QPF. LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE NAM WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS/POPS ALONG
THE BORDER. THE SAME GOES FOR THE FAR SE CORNER OF THE AREA WHERE
SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT. ON
THURSDAY...THE NAM/ECMWF HAVE A LITTLE BIT OF QPF WITH ANOTHER
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION. THE GFS/GEM ARE
DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD. USED A MODEL BLEND WHICH
RESULTED IN A DRY FORECAST. THE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT SETTING UP A WAA/RETURN FLOW LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN ON FRIDAY AS THE MODELS
ARE INDICATING A SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN IN WESTERN SD. A ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT FEATURES A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE CRUISING THROUGH MN BY 00Z
SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...DRY AIR LINGERS OVER NW WI. DIFFERENCES IN
THE QPF FIELD SUGGEST LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHERE AND WHEN
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND HOW THEY WILL AFFECT THE AREA. USED
BLENDED POPS AS A RESULT. LARGE DIFFERENCES ABOUND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
AN INVERTED TROF MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SFC LOW SOMEWHERE
IN SD OR NEBRASKA. AS SUCH...THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SET UP WILL
DETERMINE WHERE THUNDERSTORMS INITIATE. AT THE MOMENT...HAVE
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH IS
A COMPROMISE. THIS SFC TROF MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH
MORE THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA. LOWER POPS TO THE WEST. UNCERTAINTY SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH LINGERING RAIN CHANCES AS A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS. THE UNSTABLE
PATTERN PERSISTS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH CONTINUING OPPORTUNITIES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS FROM 5-8K FT WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST LATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. VFR
CEILINGS WILL MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN THAT MOVES IN AS WELL...AT THIS
TIME WE LIMITED THE MENTION TO KBRD. CAPE VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN
LIMITED ENOUGH FOR MAINLY SHOWERS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 68 49 64 48 / 10 70 60 20
INL 70 48 70 48 / 0 20 20 20
BRD 64 51 68 52 / 60 90 60 10
HYR 72 51 67 51 / 10 70 70 40
ASX 67 48 64 49 / 0 60 60 40
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1221 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
THROUGH THIS EVENING...BREEZY NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
A PASSING COLD FRONT. SCATTERED/BROKEN CUMULUS WILL SPREAD THROUGH
NE MINNESOTA...AND THERE COULD BE ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN FORECAST AREA. ADDED THE SHOWERS AS
SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR AND HOPWRF HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE.
LATER TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND THE
DAKOTA WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT INTO MINNESOTA. THERE SHOULD BE
CLEARING OVERNIGHT...AND THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BECOME VERY LIGHT.
THIS WILL PROMOTE RADIATIONAL COOLING...SO LEANED ON THE COOLER
MODEL GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES. LOWS WILL LIKELY
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH THE COLDEST READINGS
ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. MIGHT NEED TO LOWER THE FORECAST EVEN
MORE.
TUESDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN THE DAY OVER
CENTRAL/NORTHERN MINNESOTA...AND IT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST
THROUGH THE DAY. SUNNY SKIES WILL GREET THE NORTHLAND AT SUNRISE
AND THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT THERE SHOULD BE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER FROM THE WEST AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.
SHOWERS COULD SPREAD INTO THE NORTHLAND FROM THE WEST...BEGINNING
IN THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION...LATE IN THE DAY. MOST MODEL
GUIDANCE PRIMARILY HOLDS OFF PCPN UNTIL THE EVENING...AFTER 00Z.
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WED MORNING...BRINGING
RAIN SHOWERS TO A GOOD PORTION OF THE NORTHLAND. AT THIS TIME THE
BULK OF THE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH. A
WEDGE OF DRY AIR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SIT OVER THE NRN GREAT
LAKES AND WRN ONTARIO REGION AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES AND SHUNT
THE TRACK OF THE LOW TO THE SOUTH. KEEPING THE NRN THIRD OF THE
CWA MOSTLY DRY. BY WED AFTERNOON...AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH SRN WI
A STRONGER SURGE OF UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE LIFTED INTO THE AREA AND
POSSIBLY TRIGGER A FEW T-STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
WED NIGHT AS A SECONDARY WEAK FRONT SLIDES ACROSS FAR NE MN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN ON THURSDAY AND THUR NIGHT...BUT MOVE
RAPIDLY TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY AS THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARRIVES ALONG A WARM FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND WITH THE
MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S AND 70S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT...SO AT THIS TIME THERE IS NO INDICATION
OF ANY SORT OF A SIGNIFICANT LAKE BREEZE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS FROM 5-8K FT WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST LATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. VFR
CEILINGS WILL MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN THAT MOVES IN AS WELL...AT THIS
TIME WE LIMITED THE MENTION TO KBRD. CAPE VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN
LIMITED ENOUGH FOR MAINLY SHOWERS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 49 64 48 68 / 40 50 10 10
INL 48 70 48 68 / 20 10 20 10
BRD 52 69 52 72 / 70 50 10 10
HYR 53 67 51 73 / 40 60 20 10
ASX 50 64 49 68 / 30 50 10 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...TENTINGER
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
148 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. WARM HUMID AIR MASS OVER THE STATE IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT WILL COMBINE TO SPARK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STORMS
WILL PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NOT A LOT OF STORMS IN OUR AREA. MAIN CONCERN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WILL BE THE FAR SW COUNTIES...AS MORE STORMS OVER EASTERN OH TRACK
EASTWARD.
STILL HAVE TO WATCH THE NW AREAS LATER THIS MORNING...AS MORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE OVER NW OH.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
TOUCHED UP FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS ON RADAR AND THE HI
RES MODEL RUNS. LOOKING TO THE WEST CAN SEE THE COMPLEX MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN OH. THE HRRR MOVES THIS INTO CENTRAL PA ABOUT 04Z
AND GRADUALLY WEAKENS IT AS ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
PROBABLY WHAT IS BACK OVER THE CHICAGO AREA. THIS REACHES CENTRAL
PA AFTER 09Z ACCORDING TO THE HRRR. THE 18Z NAM12 RUN FOCUSES MORE
ON PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE STATE. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THERE IS AMBLE MOISTURE AND HIGHER
PWATS WITH THE NEXT BATCH THAT WILL MOVE IN. HENCE THE CONCERN FOR
POTENTIAL FLOODING FOR ANY AREAS GETTING REPEAT STORM CELLS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL LINGER THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDDAY NORTH AND CENTRAL...WHILE THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT
SHIFTS SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. AS UPPER TROF WEAKENS AND MOVES ESE ACROSS THE AREA AND
H5 SHEAR AXIS BECOMES ALIGNED ALONG MASON DIXON LINE BY 00Z WED.
SPC CONTINUES A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PA
TUESDAY...THREAT LIMITED BY WEAKER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...AN
EARLIER EXIT AND LIMITED CAPE. FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH
MIDDAY HOURS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL LOOKING LIKE A BREAK FROM THE STORMY CONDITIONS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF WED.
MORE IN THE WAY OF SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILDS IN FOR THU.
SOME SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...WHICH WILL DETERMINE IF WE
SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF AND STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. EITHER
WAY...DID UP POPS A LITTLE FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR POPS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR TEMPS.
FOR MONDAY...LOOKING LIKE A SLIGHTLY STRONGER COLD FRONT.
SOME SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...THUS WENT WITH RATHER LOW
POPS AND DID NOT GO REAL COLD ON THE TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER WEST CENTRAL PA WILL
SLOWLY MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THESE STORMS WILL BRING VCTS TO JST
AND AOO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE NW...MOST LIKELY AREA FOR CONVECTION LATE
TONIGHT SHIFTS BACK TO THE NW PORTION OF CWA /AND MAY EXTEND INTO
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS ON NOSE OF A LL JET/...BUT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT BFD...JST...AOO AND UNV.
CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS RETURN AS WELL WITH MANY AREAS SLIPPING
BACK TO MVFR TO IFR OVERNIGHT. THESE RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 12Z...IMPROVING BETWEEN 13Z TO 15Z.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH VARYING
RESTRICTIONS IS PROBABLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
OTHERWISE VFR SE...MVFR NW.
OUTLOOK...
WED...PRIMARILY VFR.
THU-SAT...CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-
017-018-024-025-033-034-037-041.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WATSON
NEAR TERM...WATSON/DEVOIR/MARTIN
SHORT TERM...WATSON/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1116 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 926 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015/
UPDATE...
925 PM KNQA RADAR SHOWED DISSIPATED SHOWERS OVER NORTH MS...WHILE
WEST OF THE MS RIVER...A LONE SHOWER WAS NOTED AT GILMORE AR.
01Z HRRR MODEL DEPICTED LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL SHOWER POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS STABLE UNDER THE
RELATIVELY WARM MIDLEVEL TEMPS. 00Z NAM SHOWS A SIMILAR SOLUTION.
A FORTHCOMING UPDATE WILL FEATURE REDUCED RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ON
TRACK AT MIDEVENING.
PWB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE MUCH LIKE THE PAST
SEVERAL...WARM AND HUMID WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
ONE COULD SAY THE NEXT 30 OR 60 DAYS WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR AS
WELL...ITS SUMMER. THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS
EAST ARKANSAS...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STORM COULD POP UP VIRTUALLY
ANYWHERE. THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT OF THIS UPDATE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
IMPACT FROM A TROPICAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
SYNOPTICALLY A BROAD VERTICALLY STACKED SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER
RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC STATES.
THIS SETUP PUTS THE MIDSOUTH ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER TO OUR NORTH AND WEST AND THE HOTTER...BUT DRIER
WEATHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THIS PATTERN REALLY ISN`T EXPECTED
TO CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE
SHOULD WEAKEN A BIT...LIKELY RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH. FARTHER SOUTH IN THE GULF...ALL
EYES ARE FOCUSED ON A DEVELOPING TROPICAL SYSTEM...LIKELY TO
BECOME OUR SECOND NAMED TROPICAL STORM OF THE YEAR. THIS SYSTEM
COULD BECOME A MAJOR PLAYER IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDSOUTH BY
WEDNESDAY. CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS TAKES IT INSHORE NEAR HOUSTON
ACROSS DALLAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA...THEN ARCING TO THE NORTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI. IF THIS SOLUTION VERIFIES...WE COULD SEE
CONDITIONS AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MORE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WESTERN AND POSSIBLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTH. IF IT SHIFTS FARTHER
WEST...THE ENTIRE AREA COULD BE INFLUENCED BY SUBSIDENCE ON THE
OUTSKIRTS OF THE STORM RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AREA WIDE. IF
ITS TRACK SHIFTS FARTHER EAST...WIDESPREAD RAIN WOULD BE MORE
LIKELY AREA WIDE. STORM INTENSITY WOULD ALSO PLAY A
ROLL...ALTHOUGH NOT AS BIG AS THE TRACK. GUIDANCE VARIES BY AS
MUCH AS 24 HOURS FOR LANDFALL AND WHEN IT WOULD HAVE ITS GREATEST
IMPACT ON THE MIDSOUTH. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE STORM SHOULD BE
TOO FAR EAST TO PLAY MUCH OF A ROLE IN THE MIDSOUTH. THE UPPER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ZONAL. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...HIGHS NEAR 90 WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S...AND NEAR
NORMAL 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED.
30
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR VCTS TOMORROW WILL OCCUR AT JBR...BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z. ALL
OTHER TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN PRECIP-FREE WITH WINDS BETWEEN 10
AND 15 MPH FROM THE SOUTH.
TVT
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
421 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2015
.DISCUSSION...As of 4:00 AM CDT Tuesday...the strong convection
near Guadalupe NP has finally died out.
Water Vapor imagery and GOES High Density winds are showing a
ridge centered in the East Pacific west of Southern CA stretching
into Northern Chihuahua and another ridge centered over the
Southeastern US. A weakness in the pattern is centered over the
Southern Plains with a weak upper low over TX...possibly enhanced
by the MCV that was located over Reagan County earlier yesterday.
TS Bill in the Gulf of Mexico continues to churn northwest
towards the Southern TX coast.
The latest NAM12 and HRRR develops convection over Central TX
early this morning and move it southwest into the CWA in NE flow
aloft. Based on the forecast track TS Bill will have minimal
impact on the sensible weather for West TX and SE New Mexico. With
fairly stable mid level lapse rates...low CAPE...and very weak
Bulk Shear do not expect any severe wx. The main impact from the
convection will be the possibility of heavy rain and localized
flooding with PW`s near 1.5 inches and the slow movement of the
storms. Temps will be relatively "cool" with ample cloud cover.
Precip chances will be much less tonight through Wednesday night
as the ridge in the Pacific and Northern Chihuahua builds east
into Southwest TX. Models drop a vort max south thru West TX on
Thursday around the eastern edge of the ridge. This could bring an
increasing chance of convection Thursday and Thursday night.
From Friday through early next week the ridge in the Eastern
Pacific will move ENE...and become centered over the Southern
Rockies/Central High Plains in response to a mid/upper trough in
the Gulf of Alaska. Since the ridge will be centered north of the
CWA it will leave the area in a deep layer easterly flow. Have
kept temps near normal...more in line with the European MOS
guidance. Felt that the GFS MOS guidance with temps above 100 for
Midland was too high for this type of pattern. Even though the
models don`t indicate it at this time...this type of pattern is
conducive for isolated aftn convection...especially if any
easterly waves move across the Gulf of Mexico.
Strobin
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 84 66 90 68 / 40 20 10 0
BIG SPRING TX 84 69 88 69 / 50 30 20 0
CARLSBAD NM 88 67 94 68 / 20 10 10 0
DRYDEN TX 88 70 93 72 / 50 40 20 10
FORT STOCKTON TX 87 68 93 70 / 40 20 20 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 83 65 88 67 / 10 10 10 0
HOBBS NM 84 64 90 67 / 20 10 10 10
MARFA TX 81 60 88 61 / 30 10 10 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 85 67 91 68 / 50 20 20 0
ODESSA TX 85 67 90 69 / 50 20 20 0
WINK TX 88 68 96 72 / 30 10 10 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
67/33
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1154 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
.AVIATION...
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER APPEARS WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO MOVING
INTO KPVW THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. ADDED A TEMPO
GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND MINOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTION. BAND
MAY SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO IMPACT KCDS AS WELL THOUGH SEEMS LESS
CERTAIN. USED HRRR CEILING AND VISIBILITY PRODUCTS TO SOME EXTENT
TO PLAN TIMING FOR LOW CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT. BOTH KCDS AND KPVW
SEEM MORE LIKELY TO SUFFER FROM AT LEAST LIGHT FOG. CANNOT RULE
OUT BRIEFLY GOING DOWN HARDER WITH CIGS AND VSBYS EARLY IN THE
MORNING BUT VERY HARD TO ASCERTAIN THREAT. STILL APPEARS LAYER
WILL LIFT AND BEGIN TO BREAK UP BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015/
AVIATION...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WEST TEXAS WILL MOVE EVER SLIGHTLY
TO THE EAST BY LATE TUESDAY. AN IMPULSE PASSING JUST EAST OF KLBB
AND SOUTH OF KCDS WAS CAUSING SHOWERS AND THUNDER OVER THE ROLLING
PLAINS ABOUT 90 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KLBB. THESE WILL SLOWLY
EDGE NORTH THIS EVENING BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF KCDS. AN OUTFLOW OR WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING WESTWARD ONTO
THE CAPROCK WAS ALSO CAUSING VERY ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS ABOUT 25
MILES SOUTHEAST OF KLBB EARLY THIS EVENING THAT SHOULD WEAKEN WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT KLBB. LIGHT
NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST
OVERNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST MVFR LEVEL CEILINGS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. THERE IS ALSO A RISK FOR
LOWER DECKS AND EVEN BRIEF FOG BUT OUR SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN
INCONSISTENT ON LOCATION AND TIMING OF SIGNALS SO WE WILL CONTINUE
TO WATCH FOR BETTER TRENDS AND NOT INDICATE A LOWER CEILING OR
VISIBILITY AT THIS TIME. LOW CLOUD DECK SHOULD LIFT AND START TO
BREAK UP BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON TUESDAY. RMCQUEEN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015/
SHORT TERM...
LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR SHOWS A VORT MAX SPINNING SOUTHWEST OF SJT
WITH INCREASING SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE BIG
COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. A FEW STORMS ALSO BEGINNING TO
FIRE FURTHER WEST OVER THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND ERN NM OUTSIDE
OF THE THICK CLOUD SHIELD. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SPIRAL AROUND THE WEST CENTRAL TX DISTURBANCE AS IT LIFTS SLOWLY
NORTH THROUGH THE EVENING. INSTABILITY HAS GROWN IN EXCESS OF 1000
J/KG THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A CAP DESPITE THICK
CLOUDS THAT HAVE REMAINED OVER THE REGION. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS VERY
WEAK AND WITH GENTLE LAPSE RATES IN PLACE EXPECT STORM LIFECYCLES TO
BE LIMITED. STILL WITH PWAT VALUES PUSHING 1.5 INCHES AND MOIST
PROFILES IN PLACE EXPECT SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH SUNRISE TUE AS
WEAK ASCENT CONTINUES IN PROXIMITY TO VORTICITY STRUNG OUT ACROSS
THE AREA AND CONVERGENCE ALONG ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE LIFTING NORTH.
DEEP E/NE FLOW THROUGH THE DAY TUE WILL MAINTAIN A NEARLY SATURATED
PROFILE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. FURTHER WEST
THOUGH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO EXERT MORE INFLUENCE AS
IT BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS OF
NM. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE AND REMNANT ASCENT TO THE EAST WILL
SET UP A BATTLEGROUND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE SOUTH PLAINS.
AS A RESULT HAVE TAPERED POPS MORE HASTILY FROM W-E ON TUE LEAVING
CHC POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA. EXPECT PREVAILING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY FOG TO BE SLOW TO GIVE WAY
TO SUNSHINE NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER IN THE AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER
AND DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP A RATHER SMALL RANGE IN TEMPS FROM W-E
FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.
LONG TERM...
WARM WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM...AT LEAST HERE
IN WEST TEXAS. LATE TUES/EARLY WED WILL BE RATHER WET FOR THE
ROLLING PLAINS AS A REMNANT SURFACE TROF WILL LINGER TO SUSTAIN
CONVECTION. PRECIP CHANCES ON THE CAPROCK WILL BE SOMEWHAT HINDERED
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. MID DAY WED INTO
THURS IS QUESTIONABLE AS FAR AS POPS GO FOR THE ROLLING PLAINS AS
THEY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF TROPICAL INVEST 91L. THERE
HAVE BEEN SOME HINTS PREVIOUSLY THAT WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MAY PUSH
FAR ENOUGH WEST TO TRIGGER MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO INDICATE THIS POSSIBILITY
WHILE THE GFS KEEPS PRECIP TO THE EAST THANKS TO AN OVERHEAD RIDGE.
FOR NOW LOW MENTION POPS WILL BE ADDED ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES. ADDITIONAL LOW MENTION POPS HAVE BEEN ADDED TO OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES FOR THURS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF HIGH TERRAIN CONVECTION IN NM PUSHING INTO THE FA
WITH THE AID OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL...AS WITH MANY
OTHER THINGS...DEPEND ON HOW FAR EAST THE RIDGE EXTENDS.
ACTIVITY APPEARS TO REMAIN QUIET THIS COMING WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE
DRAWS CLOSER. WHAT IS STILL A COIN TOSS WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
CONVECTION EARLY NEXT WEEK IN REGARDS TO A POSSIBLE FRONT PUSHING
DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO HAVE SOME CONFIDENCE IN
THE FROPA NEXT MON BUT HAS BACK OFF OF THE IDEA BY A HAIR. THE GFS
HAS ABANDONED THE IDEA ALL TOGETHER AND QUICKLY BUILDS A 594DM RIDGE
OVER THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF HOLD OFF ON THE
RIDGE UNTIL NEXT TUES AT THE EARLIEST. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL BE
KEPT IN FOR THE TIME BEING UNTIL THE MODELS RESOLVE THEIR ISSUES ON
WHAT THEY THINK WILL HAPPEN. UNTIL THEN WE CAN PUT THE PIROGUE BOAT
BACK IN STORAGE AND DO SOME OUTDOORS WORK WHILE THERE IS A HIATUS
IN RAIN. ALDRICH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 59 80 62 88 / 20 20 10 10
TULIA 61 80 63 87 / 30 20 10 10
PLAINVIEW 62 80 63 86 / 50 20 10 10
LEVELLAND 62 82 64 89 / 30 20 10 10
LUBBOCK 63 81 66 90 / 30 20 10 10
DENVER CITY 62 85 63 90 / 30 20 10 10
BROWNFIELD 63 82 64 91 / 30 20 10 10
CHILDRESS 66 82 69 89 / 40 40 20 30
SPUR 65 82 65 87 / 60 30 20 20
ASPERMONT 67 83 68 90 / 60 40 30 30
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1130 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 948 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2015
CONVECTION STRENGTH IS DWINDLING THIS EVENING AS INSTABILITY
WANES. ASIDE FROM A TORNADO PRODUCING THUNDERSTORM EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON WEST OF ROCK RIVER...CONVECTION ON THE WHOLE HAD
DIFFICULTY BECOMING SFC BASED IN THE COOLER DAY 1 OF THE POST-
FRONTAL AIR MASS. ASIDE FROM SOME HEAVY RAIN...THE ONGOING COMPLEX
MOVING ACROSS LARAMIE/PLATTE COUNTIES WAS DOING LITTLE TO BE
CONCERNED WITH FROM A SEVERE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE. SO HAVE OPTED TO
CANCEL THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. WV IMAGERY DEPICTS WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE NR THE WY/ID
STATELINE AT THIS HOUR. THIS FTR WILL PUSH THRU NRN/CENTRAL
WYOMING BY SUNRISE AND REACH THE DAKOTAS BY MIDDAY TUESDAY.
UPSTREAM RADARS AND SATELLITE PIX SHOW SEVERAL ADDL THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CWFA DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. 00Z NAM DATA CONTINUES TO POINT AT LEAST AT THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
STATE. SO...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES TO BE JUSTIFIED.
INITIAL LOOK AT 00Z DATA SUGGESTS TOMORROW TO BE ACTIVE AS
MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2015
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF OUR
SOUTHEAST WY ZONES EXCEPT NIOBRARA COUNTY THROUGH 11 PM. MLCAPE IS
UP TO 1000-1500 J/KG ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. BULK
SHEAR IS AROUND 40 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS LESS UNSTABLE (CAPE
LESS THAN 1000 J/KG) ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS WHERE LOW CLOUDS
HAVE BEEN MORE PERSISTENT. CONVECTION HAS BROKEN OUT OVER
CARBON/ALBANY COUNTIES WITH A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SVR CELLS.
THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW THIS CONVECTION EVOLVES THROUGH THE
EVENING AS IT MOVES INTO AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
THE HRRR DOES INDICATE SOME STRONGER STORMS THROUGH 03Z OVER
SOUTHEAST WY BEFORE THE ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE CLUSTERED AND
MULTICELLULAR ESPECIALLY OVER CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA COUNTIES. ALL
OF THE MODELS SHOW A GOOD AMOUNT OF QPF THROUGH SUNRISE TUESDAY IN
THE NORTHERN ZONES AND NORTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST WY. THIS IS WHERE
THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING
SHORTWAVE. ALTHOUGH THE STEERING FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY SLOW
(20-25 KTS)...WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING SINCE SOME OF
THE EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE CELLS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY
RAIN. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY LATE TONIGHT.
THE DECENT RISK FOR SVR STORMS TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
CONTINUES TO LOOK ON TRACK FOR TUESDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE MUCH
BETTER ON TUES OVER THE PLAINS AND ESPECIALLY THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. THE SFC TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE WY-NE BORDER
DURING THE AFTN AND THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE TRIGGER FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION. THE COMBINATION OF BULK SHEAR OF 45-50 KTS AND CAPES
NEAR 1500 J/KG WILL PROMOTE A GOOD CHANCE OF STORMS TO BECOME
SUPERCELLULAR. THINKING IS LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT AS
LLVL SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK AND HODOGRAPHS ARE STRAIGHT. SPC HAS
MUCH OF THE PLAINS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR WEATHER ON TUES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2015
WEDNESDAY...SOUTHEASTERLY LLVL FLOW WILL BE DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTN WITH GOOD INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. COULD SEE ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF STRONG TO SVR STORMS
GIVEN THAT BULK SHEAR IS 35-40 KTS.
THURSDAY...MOSTLY DRY AND QUITE WARM WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT PRODUCING ENOUGH CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
FRIDAY...FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS OUT WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALOFT MOVING
ACROSS...THOUGH WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...MINIMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY...MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES ACROSS AND WITH
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND CORRESPONDING
DECREASE IN WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WILL SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
SUNDAY...HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE WITH FLOW TURNING NORTHWEST AND WITH
DRIER LOW AND MID LEVELS...WILL SEE A DECREASE IN AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AREAL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2015
WYOMING TAFS...AREAS OF LOCALIZED IFR AND MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES IN FOG THROUGH 15Z...OTHERWISE VFR WITH SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
LOCALIZED MVFR AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS.
NEBRASKA TAFS...AREAS OF IFR AND MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THROUGH 15Z...ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LOCALIZED MVFR AND
WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2015
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS
AND EVENINGS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 15-20 PERCENT TO
THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON THESE DAYS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR WYZ101>103.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CAH
SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...CLH/RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...ZF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
640 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015
A WEAK DISTURBANCE CONTINUED TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR GENERATING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST-
CENTRAL COLORADO...THE FOUR CORNERS AND THE NORTHERN TIER ZONES.
STORMS WERE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND MODERATE WIND GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH. EXTRAPOLATED
MOVEMENT YIELDED MOVEMENT OF THIS MASS OF MOIST CONVECTION AS
GENERALLY EASTWARD AT 20-25 MPH. CONSEQUENTLY...INCREASED POP
VALUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO THIS MORNING.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY WILL LARGELY PASS EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE
MORNING...THOUGH BY THIS TIME THE AREA WILL LIKELY SEE
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO DIURNAL WARMING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015
BY SUNRISE THIS MORNING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND AREA OF UPLIFT
OVER NORTHWEST CO WILL HAVE MOVED TO SE WY AND INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS...BUT IT APPEARS THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE VORT MAX THAT
MOVED THROUGH NORTHERN NV OVERNIGHT AND INTO EASTERN UT WILL STILL
BE DRAGGING THROUGH WEST-CENTRAL CO THIS MORNING WITH A FEW
SHOWERS EXITING THE AREA EAST OF EAGLE AND VAIL BEFORE NOON. DRIER
AIR WILL THEN CONTINUE FILTERING INTO EASTERN UT AND THEN WESTERN
CO. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM MAINLY THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.
TONIGHT WILL SEE CONTINUED DRYING AS A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SW
U.S. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND RELATIVELY HOT WITH CONVECTION
CONFINED TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND POINTS EAST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015
SUBTROPICAL HIGH CORE POSITIONED OVER THE SWRN CONUS SHUTS DOWN
ANY MOISTURE PLUMES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A DIGGING SHORT WAVE
INTO MONTANA ON SATURDAY TIGHTENS WESTERLY GRADIENT FLOW ACROSS
COLORADO. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME AFTERNOON BREEZES...BUT
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER IMPACT GIVEN ROBUST RAIN AMOUNTS DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE...FORECASTED AFTERNOON
TEMPS LEAVES NO DOUBT THAT SUMMER HAS ARRIVED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 537 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015
THE 12Z TAFS REFLECTS HRRR MODEL TRENDS WITH A BAND OF
SHOWERS/STORMS SWEEPING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL COLORADO BETWEEN NOW
AND 17Z THIS MORNING. ONCE THIS BAND MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...THEN DIURNAL DRIVEN STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WRN
COLORADO. AIR MASS MAY STABILIZE OVER MUCH OF ERN UTAH. BUT MODEST
CAPE VALUES STILL EXIST FOR WRN COLORADO FOR SCATTERED
STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER SW COLORADO. FOR MOUNTAIN TAF SITES...ANY
PASSING STORMS COULD LOWER CIGS BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS WITH DIMINISHING STORMS AFTER 03Z TUESDAY EVENING.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NL
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
537 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015
BY SUNRISE THIS MORNING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND AREA OF UPLIFT
OVER NORTHWEST CO WILL HAVE MOVED TO SE WY AND INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS...BUT IT APPEARS THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE VORT MAX THAT
MOVED THROUGH NORTHERN NV OVERNIGHT AND INTO EASTERN UT WILL STILL
BE DRAGGING THROUGH WEST-CENTRAL CO THIS MORNING WITH A FEW
SHOWERS EXITING THE AREA EAST OF EAGLE AND VAIL BEFORE NOON. DRIER
AIR WILL THEN CONTINUE FILTERING INTO EASTERN UT AND THEN WESTERN
CO. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM MAINLY THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.
TONIGHT WILL SEE CONTINUED DRYING AS A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SW
U.S. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND RELATIVELY HOT WITH CONVECTION
CONFINED TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND POINTS EAST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015
SUBTROPICAL HIGH CORE POSITIONED OVER THE SWRN CONUS SHUTS DOWN
ANY MOISTURE PLUMES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A DIGGING SHORT WAVE
INTO MONTANA ON SATURDAY TIGHTENS WESTERLY GRADIENT FLOW ACROSS
COLORADO. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME AFTERNOON BREEZES...BUT
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER IMPACT GIVEN ROBUST RAIN AMOUNTS DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE...FORECASTED AFTERNOON
TEMPS LEAVES NO DOUBT THAT SUMMER HAS ARRIVED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 537 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015
THE 12Z TAFS REFLECTS HRRR MODEL TRENDS WITH A BAND OF
SHOWERS/STORMS SWEEPING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL COLORADO BETWEEN NOW
AND 17Z THIS MORNING. ONCE THIS BAND MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...THEN DIURNAL DRIVEN STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WRN
COLORADO. AIR MASS MAY STABILIZE OVER MUCH OF ERN UTAH. BUT MODEST
CAPE VALUES STILL EXIST FOR WRN COLORADO FOR SCATTERED
STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER SW COLORADO. FOR MOUNTAIN TAF SITES...ANY
PASSING STORMS COULD LOWER CIGS BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS WITH DIMINISHING STORMS AFTER 03Z TUESDAY EVENING.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
957 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND MAY BE
PRECEDED BY A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE USHERS SEASONABLE WEATHER INTO THURSDAY PRIOR TO A COLD
FRONT AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AND SEASONABLE BENEATH RENEWED
HIGH PRESSURE. THOUGH AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED BY SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WET-WEATHER APPROACHING FROM THE W
MEETING UP WITH THE REMNANTS OF BILL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM UPDATE...
SO FAR NOT SO GOOD IF YOU ARE A THUNDERSTORM FAN. VISIBILITY SAT
AND WEBCAMS CONFIRM STILL A LOT OF LOW LVL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE
REGION WHICH IS PREVENTING TEMPS FROM RISING OUT OF THE 50S AND
60S ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS ARE STILL TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH
CLEARING SO IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT THE FINAL 12Z RUNS
AND LATEST MESO-SCALE GUIDANCE CAN COME UP WITH. EVEN THE BREAKS
TO THE W ARE FILLING IN AS LEFTOVER CLOUD DEBRIS ASSOCIATED WITH
SOME -SHRA ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE W. FINAL
STABILITY WILL ULTIMATELY BE DETERMINED BY BREAKS SO WILL CONTINUE
TO WATCH AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES...BUT UNLESS SOMETHING
CHANGES RELATIVELY SOON IT MAY BE TOO LITTLE TOO LATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH LATER TODAY WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT THROUGH N NEW ENG THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE FROPA
EXPECTED THIS EVENING IN SNE. A PREFRONTAL TROF MAY SET UP IN SNE
THIS AFTERNOON AND SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
TSTMS. 0-6KM SHEAR OF 35-40 KT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS
FAIRLY ROBUST BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE LACKING. ECMWF HAS NO SFC
INSTABILITY WHILE NAM/GFS GENERATE AROUND 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE BUT
NAM ONLY SHOWING MLCAPES LESS THAN 500 J/KG. IN ADDITION...MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER MEAGER. HRRR AND ARW/NMM ALL SHOW SCT
CONVECTION MOVING INTO SNE THIS AFTERNOON SO WHILE WE ARE
CONFIDENT THAT SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS WILL DEVELOP...THINK
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED UNLESS THERE IS MORE SUN THAN
FORECAST ALLOWING FOR GREATER INSTABILITY. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
PRIMARY THREAT GIVEN PWATS INCREASING OVER 2".
CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 70S TODAY BUT IT
WILL BECOME HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY E
HALF NEW ENGLAND THEN COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SNE 00-06Z
FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION.
MIN TEMPS MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
WEDNESDAY...
LARGE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO NEW ENG BRINGING SUNSHINE AND LIGHT
WINDS. TEMPS MOSTLY 75 TO 80 DEGREES WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
LEVELS. SEABREEZES WILL DEVELOP WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS
ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* SEASONABLE AND DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
* SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
* AGAIN SEASONABLE AND DRY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
* COULD TURN WET BEGINNING SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION...
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW THRU WHICH PACIFIC-ORIGIN DISTURBANCES USHER BOUTS
OF ACTIVE WEATHER FOLLOWED BY PERIODS OF COOL-DRY RELIEF. THOUGH
SOME POTENTIAL FLIES IN THE OINTMENT: 1. MAINTENANCE OF ANOMALOUS
HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND THE WATERS S OF NOVA SCOTIA
AS INDICATED BY THE 14- AND 30-DAY H5 HEIGHT AND MSLP ANOMALIES...
AND 2. REMNANTS OF BILL. A BLEND OF FORECAST GUIDANCE IS PREFERRED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTIES.
SO WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE ROUND-A-
BOUT PATTERN OF HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER AIR FOLLOWED BY RETURN S/SW-
FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER-MAKER WHICH IS
ANTICIPATED THURSDAY NIGHT. COULD SEE SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE E-COAST.
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT SWEEPS S NEW ENGLAND BUT WITHIN A
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LACK OF DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FORCING PER FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT TO MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EMBEDDED HEAVIER
RAIN FROM UPSTREAM EARLIER DAYTIME CONVECTIVE ACROSS NY / PA. LITTLE
CONFIDENCE CONCERNING CONVECTION / THUNDER. SCATTERED EXPECTATIONS
YIELD CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
WILL HOLD FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS DRY. HIGH PRESSURE YIELDS COOL-
DRY CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY NW-WINDS ON FRIDAY. PERHAPS A GOOD PERIOD
OF RADIATIONAL COOLING FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS. RETURN S-FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING.
AS WE GO FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THINKING THE INDICATIONS
OF A N-STREAM DISTURBANCE MEETING UP WITH THE REMNANTS OF BILL AS
INFERRED FROM A CONSENSUS OF FORECAST GUIDANCE WILL MAKE FOR AN
ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD OF WET-WEATHER. BUT AGAIN UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR
OUT IN THE FORECAST AND THINGS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE. CHANCE POPS
WARRANTED. BROAD-BRUSH FORECAST WITH A MENTION OF THUNDER.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
IFR STRATUS/FOG IMPROVING TO MVFR/LOW-END VFR CIGS WITH LESS
IMPACT DUE TO VSBY TOWARDS MIDDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...SLOWER
ALONG THE COASTS. SHRA 16Z-22Z THOUGH EXACT DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN.
PREVAILED VCSH. LOW CONFIDENCE TSRA. WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE S
THROUGH THE DAY.
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
IMPROVING TO VFR AS WINDS SHIFT TO NW BEHIND A COLD FRONT...BUT
AREAS OF IFR STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG OVER CAPE/ISLANDS WILL LINGER
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEABREEZES LIKELY.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. IMPROVING TO MVFR/VFR
THIS MORNING AS WINDS BECOME S/SW.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TSRA POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY IF CIGS SHOULD BECOME SCT-BKN.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. WINDS VEERING S. E/SE SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE E-SHORE DURING THE
DAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LOW-END VFR. POSSIBLE MVFR FOR HIGH TERRAIN. SCT -SHRA. POSSIBLE
+RA. S/SW-WINDS BACKING NW AND BECOMING BREEZY WITH COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR. NW-BREEZY WINDS FRIDAY TURN LIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT VEERING S BY
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARDS THE LATER-
HALF OF THE PERIOD. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST PERIOD DRY.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
7 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.
TODAY...WINDS BECOME SW TODAY WITH SPEEDS WELL BELOW SCA. AREAS
OF FOG WILL LIMIT VSBYS THIS MORNING.
TONIGHT INTO WED...A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT
AND A PERIOD OF POST FRONTAL NORTHERLY GUSTS TO 25-30 KT POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. SCA ISSUED FOR WATERS AROUND AND E
OF CAPE COD WHERE STRONGEST GUSTS EXPECTED. WINDS DIMINISH WED
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS VEERING S. PERHAPS BREEZY LATE WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. E/SE
SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE E-SHORE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. SEAS REMAIN
BELOW 5-FEET.
THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS DISSIPATING TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING. S/SW-WINDS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE...BACKING NW AND REMAINING BREEZY
WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TOWARDS MORNING. SEAS REMAIN BELOW
5-FEET.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
NW-BREEZY WINDS FRIDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS TURN LIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT VEERING S BY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
KTS. INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARDS THE LATER-HALF OF THE PERIOD. WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST PERIOD DRY WHILE SEAS REMAIN BELOW 5-FEET.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ231-232-255-256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ250-254.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...KJC/DOODY
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...KJC/SIPPRELL
MARINE...KJC/SIPPRELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
710 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND MAY BE
PRECEDED BY A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE USHERS SEASONABLE WEATHER INTO THURSDAY PRIOR TO A COLD
FRONT AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AND SEASONABLE BENEATH RENEWED
HIGH PRESSURE. THOUGH AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED BY SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WET-WEATHER APPROACHING FROM THE W
MEETING UP WITH THE REMNANTS OF BILL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
7 AM UPDATE...
SOUPY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT
AND IMPROVE AS WINDS INCREASE S/SW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THOUGH A CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER CLOUDS BREAK
ALLOWING FOR SUNSHINE. AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG TOUGH THROUGHOUT THE DAY LIMITING
INSTABILITY TOWARDS AFTERNOON SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING-FORECAST. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
APPLIES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH LATER TODAY WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT THROUGH N NEW ENG THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE FROPA
EXPECTED THIS EVENING IN SNE. A PREFRONTAL TROF MAY SET UP IN SNE
THIS AFTERNOON AND SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
TSTMS. 0-6KM SHEAR OF 35-40 KT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS
FAIRLY ROBUST BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE LACKING. ECMWF HAS NO SFC
INSTABILITY WHILE NAM/GFS GENERATE AROUND 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE BUT
NAM ONLY SHOWING MLCAPES LESS THAN 500 J/KG. IN ADDITION...MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER MEAGER. HRRR AND ARW/NMM ALL SHOW SCT
CONVECTION MOVING INTO SNE THIS AFTERNOON SO WHILE WE ARE
CONFIDENT THAT SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS WILL DEVELOP...THINK
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED UNLESS THERE IS MORE SUN THAN
FORECAST ALLOWING FOR GREATER INSTABILITY. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
PRIMARY THREAT GIVEN PWATS INCREASING OVER 2".
CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 70S TODAY BUT IT
WILL BECOME HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY E
HALF NEW ENGLAND THEN COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SNE 00-06Z
FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION.
MIN TEMPS MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
WEDNESDAY...
LARGE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO NEW ENG BRINGING SUNSHINE AND LIGHT
WINDS. TEMPS MOSTLY 75 TO 80 DEGREES WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
LEVELS. SEABREEZES WILL DEVELOP WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS
ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* SEASONABLE AND DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
* SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
* AGAIN SEASONABLE AND DRY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
* COULD TURN WET BEGINNING SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION...
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW THRU WHICH PACIFIC-ORIGIN DISTURBANCES USHER BOUTS
OF ACTIVE WEATHER FOLLOWED BY PERIODS OF COOL-DRY RELIEF. THOUGH
SOME POTENTIAL FLIES IN THE OINTMENT: 1. MAINTENANCE OF ANOMALOUS
HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND THE WATERS S OF NOVA SCOTIA
AS INDICATED BY THE 14- AND 30-DAY H5 HEIGHT AND MSLP ANOMALIES...
AND 2. REMNANTS OF BILL. A BLEND OF FORECAST GUIDANCE IS PREFERRED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTIES.
SO WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE ROUND-A-
BOUT PATTERN OF HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER AIR FOLLOWED BY RETURN S/SW-
FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER-MAKER WHICH IS
ANTICIPATED THURSDAY NIGHT. COULD SEE SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE E-COAST.
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT SWEEPS S NEW ENGLAND BUT WITHIN A
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LACK OF DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FORCING PER FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT TO MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EMBEDDED HEAVIER
RAIN FROM UPSTREAM EARLIER DAYTIME CONVECTIVE ACROSS NY / PA. LITTLE
CONFIDENCE CONCERNING CONVECTION / THUNDER. SCATTERED EXPECTATIONS
YIELD CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
WILL HOLD FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS DRY. HIGH PRESSURE YIELDS COOL-
DRY CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY NW-WINDS ON FRIDAY. PERHAPS A GOOD PERIOD
OF RADIATIONAL COOLING FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS. RETURN S-FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING.
AS WE GO FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THINKING THE INDICATIONS
OF A N-STREAM DISTURBANCE MEETING UP WITH THE REMNANTS OF BILL AS
INFERRED FROM A CONSENSUS OF FORECAST GUIDANCE WILL MAKE FOR AN
ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD OF WET-WEATHER. BUT AGAIN UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR
OUT IN THE FORECAST AND THINGS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE. CHANCE POPS
WARRANTED. BROAD-BRUSH FORECAST WITH A MENTION OF THUNDER.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
IFR STRATUS/FOG IMPROVING TO MVFR/LOW-END VFR CIGS WITH LESS
IMPACT DUE TO VSBY TOWARDS MIDDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...SLOWER
ALONG THE COASTS. SHRA 16Z-22Z THOUGH EXACT DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN.
PREVAILED VCSH. LOW CONFIDENCE TSRA. WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE S
THROUGH THE DAY.
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
IMPROVING TO VFR AS WINDS SHIFT TO NW BEHIND A COLD FRONT...BUT
AREAS OF IFR STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG OVER CAPE/ISLANDS WILL LINGER
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEABREEZES LIKELY.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. IMPROVING TO MVFR/VFR
THIS MORNING AS WINDS BECOME S/SW.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TSRA POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY IF CIGS SHOULD BECOME SCT-BKN.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. WINDS VEERING S. E/SE SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE E-SHORE DURING THE
DAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LOW-END VFR. POSSIBLE MVFR FOR HIGH TERRAIN. SCT -SHRA. POSSIBLE
+RA. S/SW-WINDS BACKING NW AND BECOMING BREEZY WITH COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR. NW-BREEZY WINDS FRIDAY TURN LIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT VEERING S BY
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARDS THE LATER-
HALF OF THE PERIOD. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST PERIOD DRY.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
7 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.
TODAY...WINDS BECOME SW TODAY WITH SPEEDS WELL BELOW SCA. AREAS
OF FOG WILL LIMIT VSBYS THIS MORNING.
TONIGHT INTO WED...A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT
AND A PERIOD OF POST FRONTAL NORTHERLY GUSTS TO 25-30 KT POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. SCA ISSUED FOR WATERS AROUND AND E
OF CAPE COD WHERE STRONGEST GUSTS EXPECTED. WINDS DIMINISH WED
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS VEERING S. PERHAPS BREEZY LATE WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. E/SE
SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE E-SHORE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. SEAS REMAIN
BELOW 5-FEET.
THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS DISSIPATING TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING. S/SW-WINDS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE...BACKING NW AND REMAINING BREEZY
WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TOWARDS MORNING. SEAS REMAIN BELOW
5-FEET.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
NW-BREEZY WINDS FRIDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS TURN LIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT VEERING S BY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
KTS. INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARDS THE LATER-HALF OF THE PERIOD. WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST PERIOD DRY WHILE SEAS REMAIN BELOW 5-FEET.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ231-232-255-256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ250-254.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...KJC/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...KJC/SIPPRELL
MARINE...KJC/SIPPRELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
611 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2015
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 242 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
08Z water vapor shows tropical storm Bill moving north between an
upper level ridge over north FL and another upper ridge over the
eastern Pacific. Meanwhile the mean westerlies remain to the north
of the forecast area in almost a zonal pattern. At the surface, a
weak surface ridge of high pressure continues to build south into
the central Plains. The frontal boundary has moved through most if
not all of the forecast area, stretching from west central MO into
north central OK.
For today and tonight, the surface high pressure system has shifted
the deeper moisture axis to the south and east of the forecast area
where models tend to keep the moisture axis through tonight.
Additionally there is no real large scale forcing to speak of with
any shortwave energy remaining north within the mean westerlies. Low
level lift looks questionable as the surface ridge weakens through
the day and the front washes out. Models still show some modest
instability, but lapse rates remain relatively shallow. Overall it
is just hard to see what might force precip to become more than just
isolated. Nevertheless have held onto some chance POPs across east
central KS during the afternoon and early evening when peak heating
and localized convergence could contribute for storm formation.
Storms would likely still have high rainfall rates combined with
slow storm motions to pose an isolated excessive rainfall risk.
Other than that, nothing else appears likely to pose a weather
hazard. Temps today could be tricky depending on how the cloud cover
behaves. For now models keep a low cloud deck over much of the area
through the day. While I don`t expect there to be a solid stratus
deck with overcast skies all day, insolation could be limited enough
without any warm air advection at the surface to keep highs around
80 today. Lows tonight are expected to be in the mid and upper 60s
as southerly winds return, bringing higher dewpoints north. This
should also help to keep skies partly to mostly cloudy and limit
any radiational cooling.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 242 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
At the start of the long term, there should be zonal flow across
the northern CONUS with the remnants of "Bill" moving northeast
across the southern plains. The 00Z ECMWF/GFS/NAM/GEM all lift
the remnants of Bill into the Ozarks Thursday and Friday. At that
point, it gets caught up in the westerlies and carried off to the
east. All of the model QPF keep the rainfall associated with Bill
southeast of our forecast area. The southeast counties may catch
the northwest corner of the rain band or shield. Given the
strength of the westerlies just to our north, keeping the remnants
of Bill to our southeast seems reasonable.
In the meantime, a weak cold front may push into northeast Kansas
by Thursday morning and then either wash out or lift back north
late in the week. Unless the remnants of Bill provide rain chances
Wednesday and Thursday, the boundary seems to be the only modest
support for precipitation chances. Even so, mid-level lapse rates
look unsupportable for vigorous convection. Overall, lowered POPS
during this time period. It will be warm and humid in general
which will be the main sensible weather feature.
In the extended, the upper ridge really starts to build into the
central plains early next week according to the 00Z ECMWF and to
some extent the GFS. Before then, a slightly stronger front is
forecast to move into Kansas in association with a northern stream
shortwave moving east in the zonal flow across the northern tier
states. Ahead of this boundary, temperatures should reach the
lower 90s on Saturday with northeast Kansas being in the low-level
thermal ridge. As the boundary moves into northeast Kansas
Saturday night, will forecast the highest POPS in the extended
forecast. Any cooling behind the front will be short-lived as the
upper ridge builds in early next week and the frontal boundary
quickly retreats north.
Overall, the weather pattern in the extended is starting to
resemble summertime with less POPS overall and warm weather.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 611 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
The terminals have been on the northern fringe of the low clouds.
Meanwhile model guidance would have had the lower clouds further
north. The 10Z RAP suggests the lower humidity may eventually mix
out by the afternoon. So with the surface ridge still slowly
working towards northeast KS, will go with a persistence forecast
with MHK and TOP remaining on the norther fringe of the lower CIGS
and keep MVFR CIGS at FOE through the morning. Confidence is low
since guidance continues to over forecast the low clouds. Think
precip should remain to the southeast today.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Johnson
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1029 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1029 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
FORECAST APPEARS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID
AFTERNOON ON THE WAY. DID INCREASE POPS A BIT THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING BASED ON LATEST HIRES MODEL DATA. STILL EXPECT
BEST THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO BE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES BUT
EVEN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD SEE BETTER COVERAGE THAN THEY
HAVE SEEN IN RECENT DAYS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
A FEW SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO POP UP OVER OUR FAR NORTH WHILE
ELSEWHERE THE FOG IS AT A MINIMUM. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE UPDATED THE
GRIDS TO REFLECT THE NEAR TERM WX. ALSO TWEAKED THE T/TD GRIDS
PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD
AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESHENED SET OF ZONES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STILL HOLDING OVER SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY...THOUGH A COLD FRONT IS MOVING CLOSER TO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH. ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY ONGOING
CONVECTION IS TRACKING WEST TO EAST FROM SOUTHERN INDIANA THROUGH
OHIO. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS MAY BRUSH THE FAR NORTHERN
REACHES OF OUR CWA BY DAWN. OTHERWISE...IT IS A QUIET NIGHT
THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUPPORTING ANOTHER
SMALL TO MODERATE RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE ON THE
ORDER OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES. SPECIFICALLY THE READINGS VARIED FROM
THE MID 70S TO THE MID 60S...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS
GENERALLY FROM 65 TO 70 DEGREES. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...ANY
VALLEY FOG OUT THERE IS NOT SHOWING UP IN THE OBS OR SEEN ON AREA
WEB CAMS.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT THE PERSISTENT
SOUTHEAST RIDGE WEAKENING A BIT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TOPPING IT AND RIDING EASTWARD ON ITS NORTHERN FRINGE.
THIS MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL BRUSH THROUGH NORTHERN KENTUCKY
TODAY...DOWNSTREAM OF LANDFALLING TROPICAL STORM BILL OVER THE
WESTERN GULF. TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THIS WILL WORK INTO THE
SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY LATER IN THE WEEK...THOUGH THERE IS CURRENTLY
HIGH PW AIR...APPROACHING TWO INCHES...JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA.
GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
SOLUTIONS OF THE HRRR AND NAM12 THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...BUT WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS AND INCREASED
COVERAGE THROUGH THE AREA...THOUGH STILL FAVORING THE NORTH. THE
CONVECTION AND CLOUDS THAT RESULTS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS IN THE
NORTH...AND PLACES THAT SEE RAIN...A BIT COOLER THAN THOSE OF
YESTERDAY. THE STORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP TODAY COULD BE
ORGANIZED RESULTING IN A THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY
RAINS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN THE FORTHCOMING HWO.
EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO SETTLE DOWN LATER THIS EVENING...BUT WITH
THE FRONT NEARBY CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ACTIVITY DURING THE NIGHT. AGAIN LATE NIGHT PATCHY VALLEY FOG AND
MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THE FRONT LOOKS TO RELOAD ON
WEDNESDAY AS IT STARTS TO TAP THE MOISTURE FROM BILL WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY FOR THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THESE STORMS ON WEDNESDAY MAY BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN SLIGHTLY BETTER UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...WILL ALSO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.
AGAIN THE T/TD/WINDS GRIDS WERE STARTED OFF FROM THE SHORTBLEND
GUIDANCE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SUPERBLEND. DID
MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOWS TONIGHT FOR TERRAIN
DISTINCTIONS. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSEST TO THE HIGHER MET
MOS NUMBERS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS KEPT THE REGION PERSISTENTLY
WARMER THAN NORMAL THIS PAST WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO EXERT ITS
INFLUENCE TO SOME EXTENT ON THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS TO
BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE ABLE
TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS THAT WILL
STILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY SHOULD
DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY ONCE THE SUN GOES DOWN...WITH MOST OF THE
AREA BEING RAIN FREE BY 5 OR 6Z THURSDAY. RENEWED ACTIVITY IS THEN
EXPECTED TO FIRE UP DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...ONCE WE GET SOME
DAY TIME HEATING GOING AND A SLUGGISH FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN
PARKED WELL NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER FINALLY BEGINS TO SLIDE
SOUTHWARD. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FROM THURSDAY ONWARD WILL BE HOW
WELL DEFINED THE BOUNDARY IS WHEN IT MOVES INTO OUR AREA. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE...BUT CONSISTENT FRONTAL FORCING
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY COULD BE. THE MODELS DIFFER
GREATLY LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE GFS BEING MUCH WETTER OVERALL
THAN THE ECMWF. IT APPEARS THAT THE ECMWF HAS A DIFFICULT TIME
RESOLVING A CONSISTENT SURFACE TRIGGER...WHILE THE GFS PRODUCES A
MORE WELL DEFINED FRONT AND ALSO HAS ITS FRONT A BIT FURTHER
SOUTHWARD THAT THE ECMWF. DUE TO ALL THIS UNCERTAINTY...DECIDED NOT
TO GO TO HIGH WITH PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH 30 TO 40 POPS ON AVERAGE EACH
DAY...WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. ANOTHER POTENTIAL PLAYER IN PRECIP CHANCES TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE REMNANTS OF TC BILL. THE
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION RECEIVED ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGIONS WILL DEPEND ALOT ON HOW MUCH INFLUENCE BILL IS ABLE
TO HAVE ON THE REGION. THIS WILL BE THE KEY TO WATCH AS WE APPROACH
THE END OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH DAY TIME HIGHS GENERALLY MAXING OUT IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S...WITH BALMY NIGHTLY LOW TEMPERATURES ONLY FALLING TO
AROUND 70.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 735 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
WIND WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST TO GENERALLY
BETWEEN NEAR 10 KTS BY MIDDAY WITH SPOTTY CONVECTION REFIRING
ACROSS THE AREA BY NOON...WITH EARLIER CELLS FOUND IN THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. DUE TO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...INCLUDING
SYM...AS WELL AS JKL AND SJS...APPEAR TO HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE
FOR SEEING CONVECTION DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
MVFR CIG AND VIS CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS...BUT
FOR THE MOST PART VFR WILL HOLD SWAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF/ABE
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
735 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
A FEW SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO POP UP OVER OUR FAR NORTH WHILE
ELSEWHERE THE FOG IS AT A MINIMUM. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE UPDATED THE
GRIDS TO REFLECT THE NEAR TERM WX. ALSO TWEAKED THE T/TD GRIDS
PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD
AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESHENED SET OF ZONES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STILL HOLDING OVER SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY...THOUGH A COLD FRONT IS MOVING CLOSER TO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH. ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY ONGOING
CONVECTION IS TRACKING WEST TO EAST FROM SOUTHERN INDIANA THROUGH
OHIO. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS MAY BRUSH THE FAR NORTHERN
REACHES OF OUR CWA BY DAWN. OTHERWISE...IT IS A QUIET NIGHT
THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUPPORTING ANOTHER
SMALL TO MODERATE RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE ON THE
ORDER OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES. SPECIFICALLY THE READINGS VARIED FROM
THE MID 70S TO THE MID 60S...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS
GENERALLY FROM 65 TO 70 DEGREES. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...ANY
VALLEY FOG OUT THERE IS NOT SHOWING UP IN THE OBS OR SEEN ON AREA
WEB CAMS.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT THE PERSISTENT
SOUTHEAST RIDGE WEAKENING A BIT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TOPPING IT AND RIDING EASTWARD ON ITS NORTHERN FRINGE.
THIS MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL BRUSH THROUGH NORTHERN KENTUCKY
TODAY...DOWNSTREAM OF LANDFALLING TROPICAL STORM BILL OVER THE
WESTERN GULF. TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THIS WILL WORK INTO THE
SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY LATER IN THE WEEK...THOUGH THERE IS CURRENTLY
HIGH PW AIR...APPROACHING TWO INCHES...JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA.
GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
SOLUTIONS OF THE HRRR AND NAM12 THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...BUT WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS AND INCREASED
COVERAGE THROUGH THE AREA...THOUGH STILL FAVORING THE NORTH. THE
CONVECTION AND CLOUDS THAT RESULTS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS IN THE
NORTH...AND PLACES THAT SEE RAIN...A BIT COOLER THAN THOSE OF
YESTERDAY. THE STORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP TODAY COULD BE
ORGANIZED RESULTING IN A THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY
RAINS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN THE FORTHCOMING HWO.
EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO SETTLE DOWN LATER THIS EVENING...BUT WITH
THE FRONT NEARBY CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ACTIVITY DURING THE NIGHT. AGAIN LATE NIGHT PATCHY VALLEY FOG AND
MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THE FRONT LOOKS TO RELOAD ON
WEDNESDAY AS IT STARTS TO TAP THE MOISTURE FROM BILL WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY FOR THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THESE STORMS ON WEDNESDAY MAY BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN SLIGHTLY BETTER UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...WILL ALSO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.
AGAIN THE T/TD/WINDS GRIDS WERE STARTED OFF FROM THE SHORTBLEND
GUIDANCE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SUPERBLEND. DID
MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOWS TONIGHT FOR TERRAIN
DISTINCTIONS. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSEST TO THE HIGHER MET
MOS NUMBERS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS KEPT THE REGION PERSISTENTLY
WARMER THAN NORMAL THIS PAST WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO EXERT ITS
INFLUENCE TO SOME EXTENT ON THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS TO
BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE ABLE
TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS THAT WILL
STILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY SHOULD
DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY ONCE THE SUN GOES DOWN...WITH MOST OF THE
AREA BEING RAIN FREE BY 5 OR 6Z THURSDAY. RENEWED ACTIVITY IS THEN
EXPECTED TO FIRE UP DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...ONCE WE GET SOME
DAY TIME HEATING GOING AND A SLUGGISH FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN
PARKED WELL NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER FINALLY BEGINS TO SLIDE
SOUTHWARD. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FROM THURSDAY ONWARD WILL BE HOW
WELL DEFINED THE BOUNDARY IS WHEN IT MOVES INTO OUR AREA. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE...BUT CONSISTENT FRONTAL FORCING
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY COULD BE. THE MODELS DIFFER
GREATLY LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE GFS BEING MUCH WETTER OVERALL
THAN THE ECMWF. IT APPEARS THAT THE ECMWF HAS A DIFFICULT TIME
RESOLVING A CONSISTENT SURFACE TRIGGER...WHILE THE GFS PRODUCES A
MORE WELL DEFINED FRONT AND ALSO HAS ITS FRONT A BIT FURTHER
SOUTHWARD THAT THE ECMWF. DUE TO ALL THIS UNCERTAINTY...DECIDED NOT
TO GO TO HIGH WITH PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH 30 TO 40 POPS ON AVERAGE EACH
DAY...WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. ANOTHER POTENTIAL PLAYER IN PRECIP CHANCES TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE REMNANTS OF TC BILL. THE
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION RECEIVED ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGIONS WILL DEPEND ALOT ON HOW MUCH INFLUENCE BILL IS ABLE
TO HAVE ON THE REGION. THIS WILL BE THE KEY TO WATCH AS WE APPROACH
THE END OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH DAY TIME HIGHS GENERALLY MAXING OUT IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S...WITH BALMY NIGHTLY LOW TEMPERATURES ONLY FALLING TO
AROUND 70.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 735 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
WIND WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST TO GENERALLY
BETWEEN NEAR 10 KTS BY MIDDAY WITH SPOTTY CONVECTION REFIRING
ACROSS THE AREA BY NOON...WITH EARLIER CELLS FOUND IN THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. DUE TO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...INCLUDING
SYM...AS WELL AS JKL AND SJS...APPEAR TO HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE
FOR SEEING CONVECTION DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
MVFR CIG AND VIS CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS...BUT
FOR THE MOST PART VFR WILL HOLD SWAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
730 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A WNW FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE UPR GRT LKS TO THE S OF UPR TROF CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY.
A DRY...STABLE AIRMASS PER THE 00Z INL ROAB...WHICH SHOWED PWAT NEAR
0.50 INCH /70 PERCENT OF NORMAL/ AND SHARP SUBSIDENCE INVRN NEAR
H775-8...IS MOVING INTO THE UPR LKS. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME SCT-BKN
SC/AC OVER UPR MI EARLY THIS MRNG ASSOCIATED WITH SOME HIER RH JUST
BLO THE INVRN BASE AND THE PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD FNT...BUT
THESE CLDS ARE TENDING TO SLOWLY DISSOLVE UNDER LARGE SCALE DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG SHRTWV RDG AXIS.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...SFC HI PRES IS CENTERED ALONG THE NDAKOTA/CNDN
BORDER. BUT MORE CLDS IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SHRTWV OVER THE NRN
ROCKIES THAT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ZONAL FLOW ARE SPREADING EWD
THRU THE NRN PLAINS UP TO NEAR THE SFC HI PRES CENTER.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON TEMPS TODAY AND ON CLD
TRENDS/NEED FOR POPS TNGT.
TODAY...DNVA/LARGE SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE AND TREND FOR
INCRSG ACYC LLVL FLOW WL RESULT IN A CONTINUED DIMINISHING OF
LINGERING SC/AC OVER UPR MI EARLY THIS MRNG. AS SFC HI PRES BLDS
OVER LK SUP TODAY...EXPECT MOSUNNY SKIES WITH ONLY SOME SCT DIURNAL
CU DVLPG UNDER LINGERING H85 THERMAL TROF/H85 TEMPS 3-4C. SOME HI
CLDS WELL IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS WL ALSO
ARRIVE OVER THE W LATER IN THE DAY. MIXING TO SUBSIDENCE INVRN BASE
NEAR H8 WL RESULT IN HI TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 60S. BUT LLVL NNW FLOW
OFF THE CHILLY WATERS OF LK SUP IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG SFC HI PRES
CENTER MAY HOLD DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE 50S NEAR THE LK...ESPECIALLY E
OF MARQUETTE.
TNGT...MODELS SHOW INCRSG H85-5 RH W-E TNGT IN ADVANCE OF UPSTREAM
SHRTWV MOVING INTO MN BY 12Z WED. BUT SINCE THE SHARPER DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC/MOST IMPRESSIVE H85 THETA E ADVCTN ARE FCST TO REMAIN
TO THE W OF THE CWA WITH LINGERING VERY DRY NEAR SFC AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH SLOWLY EXITING SFC HI PRES CENTER...MANY OF THE
MODELS BRING ACCOMPANYING PCPN NO FARTHER E THAN WRN LK SUP THRU 12Z
WED. WL RETAIN SCHC POPS OVER THE FAR W LATE TNGT TO ACCOUNT FOR
THOSE MODELS THAT CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOME PCPN INTO THAT AREA.
THICKENING CLDS WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL...BUT MINS WL STILL
FALL WELL INTO THE 40S OVER THE E WITHIN LINGERING DRY AIR AND WHERE
THE THICKER CLDS WL ARRIVE LATEST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 456 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL KEEP THE OFF AND ON SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SHOWERS WILL SLIDE INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY...AND SLOWLY SHIFT INTO
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT POPS MAINLY IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE RANGE FOR ALL BUT FAR W ZONES. NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT
GETTING ANYTHING OVER A FEW HUNDREDTHS WITH THIS ONE.
DRIER AIR WILL AGAIN BUILD IN THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA IN THE FORM OF HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE THE GFS IS EXTREMELY DRY...THE
MAJORITY OF THE SOLUTIONS DO SHOW AT LEAST SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY. THE MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN THE CLOUDY NAM
AND CLEAR GFS LOOKS TO BE THE ECMWF...AND OUR ONGOING FCST.
TANKED LOWS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING BY 5F OR SO...WITH FEW
IF ANY CLOUDS...PW VALUES RANGING FROM 0.25 OVER FAR N WI /NAM
SOLUTION/ TO AROUND 0.6IN /HIGH END OF GFS/...AND NEARLY CALM WINDS
UNDER THE SFC HIGH. KEPT IWD A BIT WARMER THAN MOST OF THE COOL
GUIDANCE THROUGH...GIVEN THE RETURN FLOW AS THE HIGH SLOWLY EXITS E
FRIDAY.
EXPECT A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS...TO
RETURN LATER FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE NOW COME IN DRY
FOR SUNDAY. THIS GOES AGAINST THE 30 PERCENT POPS THAT WE WOULD HAVE
BLENDED TO...SO HAVE DONE SOME EDITING TO GO A LITTLE DRIER. MAY
NEED TO TAKE POPS OUT COMPLETELY DEPENDING ON THE NEXT SET OF MODEL
RUNS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 729 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
HI PRES BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY WL BRING VFR
CONDITIONS TO ALL 3 TAF SITES. SOME HI/MID CLDS WL ARRIVE TNGT...
BUT LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR WL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS EVEN IF A
-SHRA DEVELOPS AT IWD LATE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
ALTHOUGH A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THRU THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND CAUSE VARYING WINDS...A
RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND HI STABILITY OVER THE CHILLY LAKE
WATERS WILL HOLD WINDS UNDER 20KTS THRU THE WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
638 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
AT 330 AM...IT WAS CLEAR ACROSS THE CWA. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WERE
SPREADING IN FROM THE DAKOTAS...REACHING NW AND WC MN. TEMPS
RANGED FROM THE MID 30S IN THE NORTH TO 60 AT SAXON HARBOR. MOST
LOCATIONS WERE IN THE 30S NORTH AND 40S SOUTH WITH LIGHT WINDS.
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE EARLY TODAY...TO LOW PRESSURE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING IN A WETTER DIRECTION FOR
THE MOST PART...AND WE HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THE MOST PART.
TODAY SHOULD START OUT CLEAR AND COOL ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE IN THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE EASTWARD AS THE DAY WEARS ON.
SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY HIGH
AND MID CLOUDS. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE BRAINERD
LAKES REGION FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRENT MODEL
TRENDS. IN FACT...THE 06Z RAP SHOWS PRECIPITATION REACHING KDLH BY
00Z THIS EVENING. THE 07Z HRRR ONLY GOES THROUGH 22Z BUT HAS
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA AT THAT TIME. THE HOPWRF
IS A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH SOME OF THEIR MEMBERS BUT GENERALLY
HAS PRECIPITATION EXPANDING INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.
GIVEN THE TRENDS...WILL HAVE HIGH POPS IN THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA
LATER TODAY. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT TRICKIER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE
PAST FEW DAYS. WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WILL LIKELY SEE A COOL DOWN AFTER REACHING
DAYTIME MAXES...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST. AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
WILL ALSO SEE A COOL DOWN AS A LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPS THIS AFTN.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AND
WE HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE IN THE SOUTH.
HAVE STAYED WITH MAINLY CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTH AND IT MAY
ACTUALLY REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE BORDER REGION. QPF AMOUNTS
OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE HALF INCH RANGE IN THE
BRAINERD LAKES REGION...WITH A QUARTER INCH FURTHER EAST INTO THE
TWIN PORTS AND THE UPPER SAINT CROIX RIVER VALLEY. LESSER AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED NORTH AND EAST. COULD BE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTH LATER TONIGHT.
WEDNESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A WET DAY FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON...SPECIFICALLY IN THE
NORTH AND WEST. THE 06Z NAM HAS STARTED TRENDING IN FAVOR OF THE
GFS...AND HAS A HIGHER AREA OF QPF FROM THE HEAD OF THE LAKES INTO
NEIGHBORING AREAS OF NW WI. AMOUNTS WILL BE VARIABLE BUT WE COULD
SEE SOME BASIN AVERAGE AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE POPS ALIGNED WITH FROPA. A
SECOND...WEAKER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKS INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE
AREA BY 06Z THURSDAY AND HAVE SOME POPS HERE AS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN MODELS. THE NAM HAS A BIT OF QPF ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
AFTER 06Z...THE GFS IS DRY WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE ROBUST WITH ITS
QPF. LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE NAM WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS/POPS ALONG
THE BORDER. THE SAME GOES FOR THE FAR SE CORNER OF THE AREA WHERE
SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT. ON
THURSDAY...THE NAM/ECMWF HAVE A LITTLE BIT OF QPF WITH ANOTHER
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION. THE GFS/GEM ARE
DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD. USED A MODEL BLEND WHICH
RESULTED IN A DRY FORECAST. THE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT SETTING UP A WAA/RETURN FLOW LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN ON FRIDAY AS THE MODELS
ARE INDICATING A SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN IN WESTERN SD. A ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT FEATURES A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE CRUISING THROUGH MN BY 00Z
SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...DRY AIR LINGERS OVER NW WI. DIFFERENCES IN
THE QPF FIELD SUGGEST LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHERE AND WHEN
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND HOW THEY WILL AFFECT THE AREA. USED
BLENDED POPS AS A RESULT. LARGE DIFFERENCES ABOUND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
AN INVERTED TROF MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SFC LOW SOMEWHERE
IN SD OR NEBRASKA. AS SUCH...THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SET UP WILL
DETERMINE WHERE THUNDERSTORMS INITIATE. AT THE MOMENT...HAVE
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH IS
A COMPROMISE. THIS SFC TROF MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH
MORE THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA. LOWER POPS TO THE WEST. UNCERTAINTY SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH LINGERING RAIN CHANCES AS A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS. THE UNSTABLE
PATTERN PERSISTS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH CONTINUING OPPORTUNITIES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
VFR AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT IS FORECAST TO BRING
LIGHT RAIN BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. THE ONLY VSBY RESTRICTION WILL BE
AT BRD WHERE MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED BY 03Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 68 49 64 48 / 10 70 60 20
INL 70 48 70 48 / 0 20 20 20
BRD 64 51 68 52 / 60 90 60 10
HYR 72 51 67 51 / 10 70 70 40
ASX 67 48 64 49 / 0 60 60 40
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GSF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
906 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015
.UPDATE...
QUIET WX THIS MORNING AS EARLY MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS EXITED
INTO THE DAKOTAS. CLOUD COVER AND COOL EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW SHOULD LARGELY SUPPRESS CONVECTION FROM THIS POINT ON ACROSS
OUR EAST AND HAVE SCALED BACK POPS TO ISOLD. LOOKING UPSTREAM...
WEAK PV IN ID IS MOVING INTO WESTERN MT. THOUGH WE WILL SEE
GRADUALLY RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS...WEAK
SHORTWAVE TO OUR WEST COMBINED WITH CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL WINDS AND
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE MAY PROMOTE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ALONG OUR WESTERN FOOTHILLS AND FROM 3HT TO
BIL...AS 00Z NSSL WRF AND LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING. A
STRONGER DISCRETE CELL IS POSSIBLE AND WILL KEEP HAIL/GUSTY WIND
WORDING IN THE GRIDS IN THIS AREA. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT A
DEVELOPING MID LEVEL CAP MAY PREVENT ACTIVITY FROM SPREADING VERY
FAR OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN.
HAVE TWEAKED POPS...SKY AND WINDS A BIT PER CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S IN OUR EAST TO THE
LOWER/MID 70S ELSEWHERE...IE STILL A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.
JKL
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...
A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT RESULTED IN A
BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF
I-90/94. THIS ACTIVITY IS SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS EARLY
THIS MORNING. A SECOND AREA OF VORTICITY OVER IDAHO WILL SHIFT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING INTO
THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...IN GENERALLY THE SAME VICINITY AS THE OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH
THIS ACTIVITY.
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING A BIT OF TAIL END JET
ENERGY PUSHES INTO THE AREA PROVIDING SOME EXTRA LIFT OVER THE
WESTERN FOOTHILLS...SPREADING INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OVER
TIME FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FOR THE MOST
PART THIS CONVECTION LOOKS FAIRLY WEAK. HOWEVER THE 00Z NSSL AND
NCAR WRF ENSEMBLES SHOW SOME STRONGER CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG
A SHEAR/CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY OVER WHEATLAND COUNTY MID
AFTERNOON...TRAVERSING SOUTHEAST INTO THE BILLINGS AREA AROUND 6
PM AND THEN CONTINUING INTO THE SHERIDAN AREA MID EVENING. 40-50KTS
OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG WOULD SUPPORT A
FEW STRONG STORMS...THOUGH THIS LOOKS TO BE A NARROW CORRIDOR
RIGHT ALONG THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
INFLUENCE. ADDED MENTION OF SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS TO THIS
AREA AND CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM SO WILL BE
WATCHING THIS AREA CLOSELY GIVEN THE POTENTIAL TO IMPACT THE
BILLINGS VICINITY.
HEIGHT RISES LATE TONIGHT INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY WILL HELP
SUPPRESS CONVECTION BELOW LEVELS SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
THERE IS STILL PACIFIC ENERGY MOVING OVER THE AREA SO CAN`T GO DRY
BUT 20 TO AT MOST 30 POPS SEEM REASONABLE.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE 65 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE WITH A
GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER MOVING THROUGH. FOR WEDNESDAY MORE SUN
AND RISING HEIGHTS WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S MOST AREAS.
CHAMBERS
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAKDOWN DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ITS
ASSOCIATED TROUGH MAKE THEIR WAY ONSHORE. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AND PLACE SOUTHERN MT IN AN AREA RIPE FOR
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER. LOOKING AT THE SPC SREF GUIDANCE A FEW
THINGS STICK OUT. LIFTED INDICES OF LESS THAN -2 COVER MOST OF THE
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES. SUPERCELL COMPOSITE INDEX ALSO LOOKS
DECENT OVER THE SAME AREA WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES ON THE
ORDER OF 40 KTS. ALL OF THIS WILL COMBINE FOR A POTENTIAL SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT THURSDAY EVENING. THIS COULD BE THE MOST ORGANIZED
EVENT IN THE BYZ CWA THIS YEAR TO DATE.
JUST FOR FUN...TOOK A LOOK AT THE CIPS ANALOG IMPACT GUIDANCE FOR
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DOMAIN FOR THURSDAY EVENING. THE HISTORICAL
DATA FOR SIMILAR EVENTS HINTS THAT HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT.
BY FRIDAY THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS SOMEWHAT ZONAL. MODELS PROGGING A
STRONG POCKET OF ENERGY OVER NW MONTANA BY FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS
DISAGREE A LITTLE BIT IN THE POSITIONING OF PRECIPITATION...BUT
APPEARS TO PRESENT A GOOD CHANCE FOR A NOCTURNAL RAIN EVENT
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
AS AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY MOVES EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN MT.
AFTER A COOLER DAY ON SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK
IN NICELY BY MONDAY AND TEMPS WILL CLIMB BACK WELL INTO THE 80S.
SINGER
&&
.AVIATION...
EXPECT A PARTLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY 18Z ACROSS THE KLVM AREA WITH THE
ACTIVITY MOVING EAST TOWARD KBIL BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND FAR
EASTERN MONTANA BY THIS EVENING. SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. HOOLEY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 073 053/082 058/084 059/082 056/075 051/080 057/087
3/T 42/T 23/T 34/T 44/T 21/B 11/B
LVM 073 047/079 050/083 053/082 048/073 045/081 050/087
3/T 32/T 34/T 34/T 42/T 11/B 11/B
HDN 074 054/084 059/086 059/084 056/075 049/080 055/088
3/T 42/T 23/T 34/T 44/T 21/B 11/B
MLS 071 053/082 059/081 058/083 055/075 049/075 055/084
2/W 23/T 24/T 44/T 55/T 22/T 11/B
4BQ 071 051/081 058/083 058/083 055/075 048/075 054/087
2/T 23/T 24/T 45/T 66/T 22/T 11/B
BHK 063 048/078 055/076 055/082 055/074 048/073 052/081
2/T 22/T 34/T 54/T 44/T 22/T 11/B
SHR 070 051/078 054/084 055/081 052/072 046/075 050/086
3/T 43/T 22/T 34/T 44/T 31/B 11/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
535 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2015
.DISCUSSION...
The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR ceilings are expected to form and possibly affect KCNM, KHOB
and KMAF along with MVFR visibility in fog. The other area
terminals could also see MVFR conditions, but think these instances
will be more brief. The fog should lift by 16/15Z, while MVFR
ceilings last until around 17Z, especially at KMAF. KMAF will
also be the only terminal where TSRA is included, but this could
change if thunderstorm development turns out more widespread than
currently expected.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2015/
DISCUSSION...As of 4:00 AM CDT Tuesday...the strong convection
near Guadalupe NP has finally died out.
Water Vapor imagery and GOES High Density winds are showing a
ridge centered in the East Pacific west of Southern CA stretching
into Northern Chihuahua and another ridge centered over the
Southeastern US. A weakness in the pattern is centered over the
Southern Plains with a weak upper low over TX...possibly enhanced
by the MCV that was located over Reagan County earlier yesterday.
TS Bill in the Gulf of Mexico continues to churn northwest
towards the Southern TX coast.
The latest NAM12 and HRRR develops convection over Central TX
early this morning and move it southwest into the CWA in NE flow
aloft. Based on the forecast track TS Bill will have minimal
impact on the sensible weather for West TX and SE New Mexico. With
fairly stable mid level lapse rates...low CAPE...and very weak
Bulk Shear do not expect any severe wx. The main impact from the
convection will be the possibility of heavy rain and localized
flooding with PW`s near 1.5 inches and the slow movement of the
storms. Temps will be relatively "cool" with ample cloud cover.
Precip chances will be much less tonight through Wednesday night
as the ridge in the Pacific and Northern Chihuahua builds east
into Southwest TX. Models drop a vort max south thru West TX on
Thursday around the eastern edge of the ridge. This could bring an
increasing chance of convection Thursday and Thursday night.
From Friday through early next week the ridge in the Eastern
Pacific will move ENE...and become centered over the Southern
Rockies/Central High Plains in response to a mid/upper trough in
the Gulf of Alaska. Since the ridge will be centered north of the
CWA it will leave the area in a deep layer easterly flow. Have
kept temps near normal...more in line with the European MOS
guidance. Felt that the GFS MOS guidance with temps above 100 for
Midland was too high for this type of pattern. Even though the
models don`t indicate it at this time...this type of pattern is
conducive for isolated aftn convection...especially if any
easterly waves move across the Gulf of Mexico.
Strobin
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 84 66 90 68 / 40 20 10 0
BIG SPRING TX 84 69 88 69 / 50 30 20 0
CARLSBAD NM 88 67 94 68 / 20 10 10 0
DRYDEN TX 88 70 93 72 / 50 40 20 10
FORT STOCKTON TX 87 68 93 70 / 40 20 20 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 83 65 88 67 / 10 10 10 0
HOBBS NM 84 64 90 67 / 20 10 10 10
MARFA TX 81 60 88 61 / 30 10 10 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 85 67 91 68 / 50 20 20 0
ODESSA TX 85 67 90 69 / 50 20 20 0
WINK TX 88 68 96 72 / 30 10 10 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
67/33
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
935 AM MST TUE JUN 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS...THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH VERY HOT
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL WEST OF TUCSON WITH SCATTERED MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS ERN SECTIONS AT THIS TIME. FAIRLY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT ONGOING WITH DEWPOINTS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS VALID 16Z
GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 40S-MID 50S. AWIPS BLENDED TOTAL
PRECIP WATER PRODUCT VALID 14Z YIELDED VALUES NEAR 1.0 INCH EAST AND
SOUTH OF TUCSON...AND VALUES OF ONLY AROUND 0.50 INCH ACROSS WRN
PIMA COUNTY.
16/12Z NAM/GFS AND 16/15Z HRRR DEPICT THE POTENTIAL OF FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST-TO-SOUTH OF
TUCSON THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH
THESE SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS. WILL REDUCE POPS TO SINGLE DIGITS LATE TONIGHT GIVEN THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE PRODUCTS.
OTHERWISE...THE MAIN EMPHASIS FOR TODAY WILL BE DAYTIME TEMPS THAT
WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 3-7 DEGS F ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS. EXPECT
HOTTER DAYTIME TEMPS DURING THE LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK AND THIS
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE SWRN CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THROUGH 17/18Z.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA WILL PREVAIL MAINLY EAST OF KTUS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 KTS MAY
OCCUR. ANY -TSRA/-SHRA SHOULD END BY 17/06Z FOLLOWED BY DRY
CONDITIONS THRU WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES WEST OF
KTUS AND A FEW TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN CLOUDS MAINLY AT 8-12K FT AGL
KTUS VICINITY EASTWARD TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER THRU THE PERIOD.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
TUCSON EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. DRY
CONDITIONS WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL THEN PREVAIL
WEDNESDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 PERCENT...ESPECIALLY IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS. TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS AROUND 15 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
ANY THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS. SOME BREEZINESS FROM THE NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS DUE TO STRONG
SURFACE HEATING. OCCASIONAL HAINES 6 CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE IN ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD ESSENTIALLY CUT OFF THE
MOISTURE INTO ARIZONA...OR AT LEAST PUSH IT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH
INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. WILL STILL SHOW MOSTLY SINGLE DIGIT `SILENT`
POPS ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN ARIZONA...ALONG THE IMMEDIATE BORDER
WITH NEW MEXICO.
BY THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WATERS JUST WEST OF THE SRN CALIFORNIA AND NRN BAJA COAST IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD. BY
LATE THIS WEEKEND IT IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER ARIZONA. THIS
SETUP WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH VERY HOT TEMPERATURES...
WITH THE POTENTIAL TO CRACK THAT 110 DEGREE MARK FOR TUCSON AND
AREAS WEST...ESPECIALLY FOR SATURDAY...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE
FOR FRIDAY AS WELL AS SUNDAY.
LOCAL STUDY CORRELATING HIGH TEMPS WITH 850-700MB THICKNESS VALUES
SUGGEST 109 DEGS FOR FRIDAY...110 DEGS SATURDAY AND 108 DEGS SUNDAY
AT TIA. MODELS ALSO SHOW A 592 DECAMETER HIGH OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...593DM SATURDAY AND 594-596 DM HIGH FOR SUNDAY. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST THE HOTTEST DAY TO BE ON SUNDAY. ALL THAT SAID...DECIDED TO
BUMP UP INHERITED HIGHS JUST A TAD MORE...SO AT THIS POINT I AM
GOING WITH 109 DEGS FOR FRIDAY...110 DEGS SATURDAY AND 109 DEGS FOR
SUNDAY AT TUCSON. SIMILAR VALUES WILL OCCUR FARTHER WEST OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN PIMA COUNTY. THEREFORE HIGH TEMPS
FOR TUCSON GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE 6 TO 8 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL EACH
DAY...BUT THE WARMEST DAYS LIKELY TO OCCUR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOWS
AROUND 5 TO 7 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WITH THE HIGH SPRAWLED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE A DRY FORECAST.
HOWEVER...MODELS DO SHOW ACTIVITY DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE
SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTALS FRIDAY AND NUDGING CLOSER TO SOUTHERN
ARIZONA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE...I
INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG THE BORDERS WITH NEW
MEXICO AND OLD MEXICO (SPECIFICALLY PORTIONS OF COCHISE COUNTY).
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
DISCUSSION/AVIATION...FRANCIS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
FIRE WEATHER...FRENCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
139 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND MAY BE
PRECEDED BY A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE USHERS SEASONABLE WEATHER INTO THURSDAY PRIOR TO A COLD
FRONT AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AND SEASONABLE BENEATH RENEWED
HIGH PRESSURE. THOUGH AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED BY SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WET-WEATHER APPROACHING FROM THE W
MEETING UP WITH THE REMNANTS OF BILL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
130 PM UPDATE...
ADJUSTED TIMING OF POPS MAINLY TOWARD THE TIMING OF A LINE OF
SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT IN NY. AS EXPECTED...THE
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HOLD IN AND SEVERELY LIMIT DESTABILIZATION
THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE CAPPED THUNDER AT ISOLATED...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS LIKELY TO BE VERY LITTLE THUNDER AS THIS BAND OF SHOWERS MOVES
THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. JUST A BRIEF DOWNPOUR
AND SOME GUSTY NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS POINT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH LATER TODAY WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT THROUGH N NEW ENG THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE FROPA
EXPECTED THIS EVENING IN SNE. A PREFRONTAL TROF MAY SET UP IN SNE
THIS AFTERNOON AND SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
TSTMS. 0-6KM SHEAR OF 35-40 KT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS
FAIRLY ROBUST BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE LACKING. ECMWF HAS NO SFC
INSTABILITY WHILE NAM/GFS GENERATE AROUND 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE BUT
NAM ONLY SHOWING MLCAPES LESS THAN 500 J/KG. IN ADDITION...MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER MEAGER. HRRR AND ARW/NMM ALL SHOW SCT
CONVECTION MOVING INTO SNE THIS AFTERNOON SO WHILE WE ARE
CONFIDENT THAT SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS WILL DEVELOP...THINK
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED UNLESS THERE IS MORE SUN THAN
FORECAST ALLOWING FOR GREATER INSTABILITY. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
PRIMARY THREAT GIVEN PWATS INCREASING OVER 2".
CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 70S TODAY BUT IT
WILL BECOME HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY E
HALF NEW ENGLAND THEN COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SNE 00-06Z
FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION.
MIN TEMPS MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
WEDNESDAY...
LARGE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO NEW ENG BRINGING SUNSHINE AND LIGHT
WINDS. TEMPS MOSTLY 75 TO 80 DEGREES WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
LEVELS. SEABREEZES WILL DEVELOP WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS
ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* SEASONABLE AND DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
* SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
* AGAIN SEASONABLE AND DRY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
* COULD TURN WET BEGINNING SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION...
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW THRU WHICH PACIFIC-ORIGIN DISTURBANCES USHER BOUTS
OF ACTIVE WEATHER FOLLOWED BY PERIODS OF COOL-DRY RELIEF. THOUGH
SOME POTENTIAL FLIES IN THE OINTMENT: 1. MAINTENANCE OF ANOMALOUS
HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND THE WATERS S OF NOVA SCOTIA
AS INDICATED BY THE 14- AND 30-DAY H5 HEIGHT AND MSLP ANOMALIES...
AND 2. REMNANTS OF BILL. A BLEND OF FORECAST GUIDANCE IS PREFERRED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTIES.
SO WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE ROUND-A-
BOUT PATTERN OF HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER AIR FOLLOWED BY RETURN S/SW-
FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER-MAKER WHICH IS
ANTICIPATED THURSDAY NIGHT. COULD SEE SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE E-COAST.
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT SWEEPS S NEW ENGLAND BUT WITHIN A
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LACK OF DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FORCING PER FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT TO MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EMBEDDED HEAVIER
RAIN FROM UPSTREAM EARLIER DAYTIME CONVECTIVE ACROSS NY / PA. LITTLE
CONFIDENCE CONCERNING CONVECTION / THUNDER. SCATTERED EXPECTATIONS
YIELD CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
WILL HOLD FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS DRY. HIGH PRESSURE YIELDS COOL-
DRY CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY NW-WINDS ON FRIDAY. PERHAPS A GOOD PERIOD
OF RADIATIONAL COOLING FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS. RETURN S-FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING.
AS WE GO FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THINKING THE INDICATIONS
OF A N-STREAM DISTURBANCE MEETING UP WITH THE REMNANTS OF BILL AS
INFERRED FROM A CONSENSUS OF FORECAST GUIDANCE WILL MAKE FOR AN
ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD OF WET-WEATHER. BUT AGAIN UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR
OUT IN THE FORECAST AND THINGS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE. CHANCE POPS
WARRANTED. BROAD-BRUSH FORECAST WITH A MENTION OF THUNDER.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
THROUGH TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...MAINLY DUE TO TIMING.
MIX OF MVFR/IFR ACROSS THE AREA WILL SLOW GIVE WAY TO LOW END VFR
BY 20-23Z. AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT SOME
SHOWERS WITH GUSTY NW WINDS BEGINNING 20Z IN THE W...THROUGH ABOUT
00Z IN THE E. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WINDS REMAIN MAINLY NW
WITH A TRANSITION TO VFR EVERYWHERE THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. SEABREEZES LIKELY.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN EXPECTED TRENDS...LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN EXPECTED TRENDS...LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. WINDS VEERING S. E/SE SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE E-SHORE DURING THE
DAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LOW-END VFR. POSSIBLE MVFR FOR HIGH TERRAIN. SCT -SHRA. POSSIBLE
+RA. S/SW-WINDS BACKING NW AND BECOMING BREEZY WITH COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR. NW-BREEZY WINDS FRIDAY TURN LIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT VEERING S BY
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARDS THE LATER-
HALF OF THE PERIOD. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST PERIOD DRY.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
7 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.
TODAY...WINDS BECOME SW TODAY WITH SPEEDS WELL BELOW SCA. AREAS
OF FOG WILL LIMIT VSBYS THIS MORNING.
TONIGHT INTO WED...A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT
AND A PERIOD OF POST FRONTAL NORTHERLY GUSTS TO 25-30 KT POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. SCA ISSUED FOR WATERS AROUND AND E
OF CAPE COD WHERE STRONGEST GUSTS EXPECTED. WINDS DIMINISH WED
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS VEERING S. PERHAPS BREEZY LATE WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. E/SE
SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE E-SHORE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. SEAS REMAIN
BELOW 5-FEET.
THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS DISSIPATING TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING. S/SW-WINDS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE...BACKING NW AND REMAINING BREEZY
WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TOWARDS MORNING. SEAS REMAIN BELOW
5-FEET.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
NW-BREEZY WINDS FRIDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS TURN LIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT VEERING S BY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
KTS. INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARDS THE LATER-HALF OF THE PERIOD. WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST PERIOD DRY WHILE SEAS REMAIN BELOW 5-FEET.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ231-232-255-256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ250-254.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...KJC/DOODY
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...DOODY/SIPPRELL
MARINE...KJC/SIPPRELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
335 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
PLEASANT DAY IN STORE ACROSS MOST OF THE DVN CWA WITH AN EAST
WIND BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA...COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS.
PRECIPITABLE WATERS WERE LESS THAN AN INCH AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS
WERE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. HOWEVER...IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES DEWS WERE IN THE MID 60S AND PWATS A BIT OVER AN INCH.
FARTHER SOUTH THE REALLY HIGH PWATS WERE LURKING WITH OVER 2 INCHES
AS YOU GET DOWN TOWARDS ST. LOUIS. TO THE NORTH DEWPOINTS WERE
ONLY IN THE 40S OVER PORTIONS OF MN EASTWARD TO MI.
3 PM TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S IN THE CWA
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...OUR FAR
SOUTH WAS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A LARGER CLOUD SHIELD THAT WAS
COVERING THE MID MS VALLEY. THIS WAS AHEAD OF LANDFALLING TROPICAL
STORM BILL IN SE TX.
MOSAIC MIDWEST RADAR LOOPS INDICATE A LINE OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...FROM SE KS TO
CENTRAL MO AND INTO SOUTHERN IL. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE SHORT TERM.
TONIGHT...DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO OUR NORTHEAST CWA
ON EAST WINDS WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 40S FOR A TIME
OVERNIGHT. IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA DEWS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 60S.
OPERATIONAL MODELS INCLUDING THE HI-RES MESO HRRR INDICATE WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT DEVELOPING IN OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AS A LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES
A BIT. THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH FORCING AND INSTABILITY TO ALLOW
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SO I WILL HAVE
HIGH END CHANCE POPS. DRIER AIR FARTHER NORTH SHOULD DISSIPATE ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY TRYING TO WORK NORTHWARD. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH AT MOST LOCATIONS IN
OUR FAR SOUTH. OUR FAR SOUTH COULD GET LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. CLOUD
COVER WILL PROGRESS NORTHWARD AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALSO SHIFTS
A BIT NORTHWARD. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S
IN FAR NW IL TO THE MID 60S FAR SOUTH.
WEDNESDAY...WEAK LOW LEVEL JET VEERS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND
OHIO VALLEY WITH THE FORCING GRADUALLY PUSHING AWAY FROM THE DVN
CWA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DRY DAY IN OUR NORTHERN CWA WITH
CHANCE POPS IN OUR FAR SOUTH CLOSER TO THE NEARLY STALLED FRONT
WELL TO OUR SOUTH. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE AREA REMAINS
HIGHLY VULNERABLE TO CONTINUED RIVER FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING DUE
TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST WEEK. FROM MID TO LATE
WEEK...THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL
MOVING INTO THE TX GULF COAST...WHICH MODEL CONSENSUS NOW HAS
CURVING NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THEN TRACKING E-NE
ACROSS CENTRAL MO INTO SOUTHERN IL FRI AND SAT...WHICH WOULD SPARE
THE FORECAST AREA FROM HEAVY RAINFALL.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA WED NIGHT WILL WARRANT LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT
QPF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS THEN LAYS OUT A BOUNDARY FROM
NORTHERN IL NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND RETURNING
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REQUIRE KEEPING AT LEAST LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE PASSING LOW THROUGHOUT. OVER THE REST OF THE
AREA...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES IS SHOWN SENDING A
BACKDOOR COOL FRONT AND A SURGE OF E-NE WINDS THU NIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING IN LOWER HUMIDITY AND THEN LIMIT HIGHS TO THE MID 70S TO
AROUND 80 FRI...AFTER ANOTHER DAY OF LOWER 80S THU.
SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...ONCE THE WEAKENING REMNANTS OF BILL
PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A PREFRONTAL STRONG W-SW
SURGE OF VERY WARM...MOIST AIR OUT AHEAD FEEDING INTO THE REGION.
THIS WILL BRING BACK HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND THETAE ADVECTION
ALOFT THAT MAY FUEL AN OVERNIGHT MCS WITH THE PASSING FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT...WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST ARE PLACED.
THIS WILL ALSO BE THE NEXT GREATEST THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH
SHOULD FOLLOW SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY WEATHER OR LOW PRECIPITATION
EVENTS THAT WILL ALLOW SURFACE CONDITIONS TO DRY SOME AND RIVERS TO
BEGIN RECEDING. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL FEATURE A NEARLY ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WITH THE REGION ALONG THE EDGE OF THE STRONGER WESTERLIES
WITH WARM AIR BUILDING OVER THE PLAINS AND AVAILABLE GULF MOISTURE.
THIS RING OF FIRE TYPE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT PERIODIC MCS ACTIVITY
OVER...OR POSSIBLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK ALONG WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
VFR CONDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THEN MOISTURE INCREASES FROM
THE SOUTH AND CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR...FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
ACROSS THE TAF SITES. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO DEVELOP LATER
THIS EVENING IN THE SOUTH AND SPREAD NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE AT AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...HAASE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
135 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A WNW FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE UPR GRT LKS TO THE S OF UPR TROF CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY.
A DRY...STABLE AIRMASS PER THE 00Z INL ROAB...WHICH SHOWED PWAT NEAR
0.50 INCH /70 PERCENT OF NORMAL/ AND SHARP SUBSIDENCE INVRN NEAR
H775-8...IS MOVING INTO THE UPR LKS. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME SCT-BKN
SC/AC OVER UPR MI EARLY THIS MRNG ASSOCIATED WITH SOME HIER RH JUST
BLO THE INVRN BASE AND THE PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD FNT...BUT
THESE CLDS ARE TENDING TO SLOWLY DISSOLVE UNDER LARGE SCALE DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG SHRTWV RDG AXIS.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...SFC HI PRES IS CENTERED ALONG THE NDAKOTA/CNDN
BORDER. BUT MORE CLDS IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SHRTWV OVER THE NRN
ROCKIES THAT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ZONAL FLOW ARE SPREADING EWD
THRU THE NRN PLAINS UP TO NEAR THE SFC HI PRES CENTER.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON TEMPS TODAY AND ON CLD
TRENDS/NEED FOR POPS TNGT.
TODAY...DNVA/LARGE SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE AND TREND FOR
INCRSG ACYC LLVL FLOW WL RESULT IN A CONTINUED DIMINISHING OF
LINGERING SC/AC OVER UPR MI EARLY THIS MRNG. AS SFC HI PRES BLDS
OVER LK SUP TODAY...EXPECT MOSUNNY SKIES WITH ONLY SOME SCT DIURNAL
CU DVLPG UNDER LINGERING H85 THERMAL TROF/H85 TEMPS 3-4C. SOME HI
CLDS WELL IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS WL ALSO
ARRIVE OVER THE W LATER IN THE DAY. MIXING TO SUBSIDENCE INVRN BASE
NEAR H8 WL RESULT IN HI TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 60S. BUT LLVL NNW FLOW
OFF THE CHILLY WATERS OF LK SUP IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG SFC HI PRES
CENTER MAY HOLD DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE 50S NEAR THE LK...ESPECIALLY E
OF MARQUETTE.
TNGT...MODELS SHOW INCRSG H85-5 RH W-E TNGT IN ADVANCE OF UPSTREAM
SHRTWV MOVING INTO MN BY 12Z WED. BUT SINCE THE SHARPER DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC/MOST IMPRESSIVE H85 THETA E ADVCTN ARE FCST TO REMAIN
TO THE W OF THE CWA WITH LINGERING VERY DRY NEAR SFC AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH SLOWLY EXITING SFC HI PRES CENTER...MANY OF THE
MODELS BRING ACCOMPANYING PCPN NO FARTHER E THAN WRN LK SUP THRU 12Z
WED. WL RETAIN SCHC POPS OVER THE FAR W LATE TNGT TO ACCOUNT FOR
THOSE MODELS THAT CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOME PCPN INTO THAT AREA.
THICKENING CLDS WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL...BUT MINS WL STILL
FALL WELL INTO THE 40S OVER THE E WITHIN LINGERING DRY AIR AND WHERE
THE THICKER CLDS WL ARRIVE LATEST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 456 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL KEEP THE OFF AND ON SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SHOWERS WILL SLIDE INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY...AND SLOWLY SHIFT INTO
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT POPS MAINLY IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE RANGE FOR ALL BUT FAR W ZONES. NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT
GETTING ANYTHING OVER A FEW HUNDREDTHS WITH THIS ONE.
DRIER AIR WILL AGAIN BUILD IN THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA IN THE FORM OF HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE THE GFS IS EXTREMELY DRY...THE
MAJORITY OF THE SOLUTIONS DO SHOW AT LEAST SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY. THE MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN THE CLOUDY NAM
AND CLEAR GFS LOOKS TO BE THE ECMWF...AND OUR ONGOING FCST.
TANKED LOWS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING BY 5F OR SO...WITH FEW
IF ANY CLOUDS...PW VALUES RANGING FROM 0.25 OVER FAR N WI /NAM
SOLUTION/ TO AROUND 0.6IN /HIGH END OF GFS/...AND NEARLY CALM WINDS
UNDER THE SFC HIGH. KEPT IWD A BIT WARMER THAN MOST OF THE COOL
GUIDANCE THROUGH...GIVEN THE RETURN FLOW AS THE HIGH SLOWLY EXITS E
FRIDAY.
EXPECT A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS...TO
RETURN LATER FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE NOW COME IN DRY
FOR SUNDAY. THIS GOES AGAINST THE 30 PERCENT POPS THAT WE WOULD HAVE
BLENDED TO...SO HAVE DONE SOME EDITING TO GO A LITTLE DRIER. MAY
NEED TO TAKE POPS OUT COMPLETELY DEPENDING ON THE NEXT SET OF MODEL
RUNS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
A SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW ON WED...POSSIBLY BRINGING
SHOWERS TO KIWD THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS MAY ALSO MOVE
INTO KCMX NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
ALTHOUGH A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THRU THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND CAUSE VARYING WINDS...A
RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND HI STABILITY OVER THE CHILLY LAKE
WATERS WILL HOLD WINDS UNDER 20KTS THRU THE WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
1236 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
AT 330 AM...IT WAS CLEAR ACROSS THE CWA. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WERE
SPREADING IN FROM THE DAKOTAS...REACHING NW AND WC MN. TEMPS
RANGED FROM THE MID 30S IN THE NORTH TO 60 AT SAXON HARBOR. MOST
LOCATIONS WERE IN THE 30S NORTH AND 40S SOUTH WITH LIGHT WINDS.
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE EARLY TODAY...TO LOW PRESSURE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING IN A WETTER DIRECTION FOR
THE MOST PART...AND WE HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THE MOST PART.
TODAY SHOULD START OUT CLEAR AND COOL ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE IN THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE EASTWARD AS THE DAY WEARS ON.
SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY HIGH
AND MID CLOUDS. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE BRAINERD
LAKES REGION FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRENT MODEL
TRENDS. IN FACT...THE 06Z RAP SHOWS PRECIPITATION REACHING KDLH BY
00Z THIS EVENING. THE 07Z HRRR ONLY GOES THROUGH 22Z BUT HAS
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA AT THAT TIME. THE HOPWRF
IS A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH SOME OF THEIR MEMBERS BUT GENERALLY
HAS PRECIPITATION EXPANDING INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.
GIVEN THE TRENDS...WILL HAVE HIGH POPS IN THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA
LATER TODAY. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT TRICKIER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE
PAST FEW DAYS. WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WILL LIKELY SEE A COOL DOWN AFTER REACHING
DAYTIME MAXES...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST. AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
WILL ALSO SEE A COOL DOWN AS A LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPS THIS AFTN.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AND
WE HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE IN THE SOUTH.
HAVE STAYED WITH MAINLY CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTH AND IT MAY
ACTUALLY REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE BORDER REGION. QPF AMOUNTS
OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE HALF INCH RANGE IN THE
BRAINERD LAKES REGION...WITH A QUARTER INCH FURTHER EAST INTO THE
TWIN PORTS AND THE UPPER SAINT CROIX RIVER VALLEY. LESSER AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED NORTH AND EAST. COULD BE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTH LATER TONIGHT.
WEDNESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A WET DAY FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON...SPECIFICALLY IN THE
NORTH AND WEST. THE 06Z NAM HAS STARTED TRENDING IN FAVOR OF THE
GFS...AND HAS A HIGHER AREA OF QPF FROM THE HEAD OF THE LAKES INTO
NEIGHBORING AREAS OF NW WI. AMOUNTS WILL BE VARIABLE BUT WE COULD
SEE SOME BASIN AVERAGE AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE POPS ALIGNED WITH FROPA. A
SECOND...WEAKER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKS INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE
AREA BY 06Z THURSDAY AND HAVE SOME POPS HERE AS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN MODELS. THE NAM HAS A BIT OF QPF ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
AFTER 06Z...THE GFS IS DRY WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE ROBUST WITH ITS
QPF. LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE NAM WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS/POPS ALONG
THE BORDER. THE SAME GOES FOR THE FAR SE CORNER OF THE AREA WHERE
SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT. ON
THURSDAY...THE NAM/ECMWF HAVE A LITTLE BIT OF QPF WITH ANOTHER
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION. THE GFS/GEM ARE
DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD. USED A MODEL BLEND WHICH
RESULTED IN A DRY FORECAST. THE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT SETTING UP A WAA/RETURN FLOW LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN ON FRIDAY AS THE MODELS
ARE INDICATING A SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN IN WESTERN SD. A ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT FEATURES A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE CRUISING THROUGH MN BY 00Z
SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...DRY AIR LINGERS OVER NW WI. DIFFERENCES IN
THE QPF FIELD SUGGEST LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHERE AND WHEN
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND HOW THEY WILL AFFECT THE AREA. USED
BLENDED POPS AS A RESULT. LARGE DIFFERENCES ABOUND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
AN INVERTED TROF MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SFC LOW SOMEWHERE
IN SD OR NEBRASKA. AS SUCH...THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SET UP WILL
DETERMINE WHERE THUNDERSTORMS INITIATE. AT THE MOMENT...HAVE
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH IS
A COMPROMISE. THIS SFC TROF MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH
MORE THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA. LOWER POPS TO THE WEST. UNCERTAINTY SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH LINGERING RAIN CHANCES AS A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS. THE UNSTABLE
PATTERN PERSISTS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH CONTINUING OPPORTUNITIES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SRN MINNESOTA TONIGHT AND
SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION BEGINNING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AROUND BRD...AND ACROSS HIB DLH AND HYR
TONIGHT. INL SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. VFR CIGS
TODAY WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR TONIGHT AND WED MORNING. COULD
SEE PERIODS OF IFR VSBYS IN -RA/BR THROUGH MID WED MORNING. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE E/SE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 68 49 64 48 / 10 70 60 20
INL 70 48 70 48 / 0 20 20 20
BRD 64 51 68 52 / 60 90 60 10
HYR 72 51 67 51 / 10 70 70 40
ASX 67 48 64 49 / 0 60 60 40
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...TENTINGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
228 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...
WEAK CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL MT IN RESPONSE TO AFTN HEATING AND AREA OF PV IN WNW FLOW
ALOFT. PRESSURE FALLS NOTED IN SOUTH CENTRAL MT WILL HELP TO SHIFT
WINDS IN OUR CENTRAL PARTS TO THE EAST...SETTING UP A CONVERGENT
AREA WHICH SHOULD BE FAVORED FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AS ACTIVITY BEGINS
TO SPREAD OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN. BILLINGS DEW PT HAS FALLEN TO 45F
SO WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE THE IMPACTS FROM DRIER AIR SPREADING IN
FROM THE WEST. TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONVECTION
OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THOUGH THE LOWER DEW PTS ARE KEEPING
SBCAPES AT MODEST VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG AS OF THE 19Z
MESOANALYSIS...SO TSTM ACTIVITY MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS HIGH RES
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. PEAK POTENTIAL FOR BILLINGS WILL BE
22-01Z. OUR EAST IS STILL SEEING EFFECTS FROM LARGE AREA OF
STRATUS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND BAKER IS STILL IN THE
50S...SO HAVE SCALED BACK POPS INTO THIS EVENING. FOCUS OF
ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT 6-8 HRS WILL BE OVER OUR WEST HALF. ONLY
OTHER ISSUE TONIGHT IS FOG IN OUR EAST. DEW PT SPREAD IS ONLY 4F
AT BAKER AND HRRR IS SUGGESTIVE OF FOG LATE TONIGHT SO WILL ADD
PATCHY FOG TO FALLON/CARTER.
SFC RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SHIFT SOUTH TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE ADVECTION TO COMMENCE UP THE HIGH
PLAINS. WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ZONAL RIDGING BUT WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE AND EVENING FRONTAL PASSAGE WE SHOULD SEE ISOLD TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON
WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE WITHIN THE MORE
DEEPLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA OVER WY/
SD/NE. TEMPS TOMORROW SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S.
MORE INTERESTING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR US EMERGES THURSDAY AS
WE CONTINUE TO MOIST ADVECT ALLOWING FOR PWATS TO RISE TO NEAR OR
A BIT ABOVE AN INCH ACROSS OUR EAST. NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A
LATE DAY PACIFIC SHORTWAVE BUT THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF RUNS HAVE
TRENDED WEAKER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE...ALLOWING FOR
700MB TEMPS TO RISE TO NEAR +14C IN OUR SOUTH. AS A RESULT IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE NORTH
OF OUR CWA...OR AT THE VERY LEAST ACROSS OUR NORTH AND EAST PARTS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY TO BE
HIGHEST ACROSS OUR NORTH. IF THE NAM IS CORRECT IN SHOWING 2000+
J/KG OF CAPE ALONG WITH PLENTIFUL SHEAR...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT
AN EPISODE OF SEVERE WX. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL
IN HWO AND GRAPHIC. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL TAKE ANOTHER STEP UP
WITH HIGHS FURTHER INTO THE 80S ON THURSDAY...AND MAYBE NEAR 90F
IN OUR SOUTH SUCH AS NEAR SHERIDAN.
JKL
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...
EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT TO END THE WEEK INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND BUT DIVERGE BY MONDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A ZONAL FLOW WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AS AN
UPPER LOW MOVES ONTO THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A FEW
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING A CONTINUED CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ZONAL SUNDAY WITH SOME DRIER AIR POSSIBLY MOVING
INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN LESSENING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LOW AND TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT DIFFER IN TIMING BUT SOMETIME
DURING THE MONDAY OR TUESDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE
AREA. AS A RESULT...THE MONDAY/TUESDAY PERIOD LOOKS TO HAVE THE
BEST SHOT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S FOR MOST
DAYS. HOOLEY
&&
.AVIATION...
A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF A KSHR-KBIL-ROUNDUP LINE.
SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS. AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH 04Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
HOOLEY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 053/082 058/085 060/082 056/076 052/080 057/087 058/082
32/T 23/T 34/T 43/T 21/B 11/B 12/T
LVM 047/081 050/083 053/082 048/074 046/081 050/087 051/083
32/T 33/T 33/T 42/T 11/B 11/B 12/T
HDN 053/084 056/086 058/084 056/076 050/080 055/088 057/083
42/T 23/T 34/T 44/T 21/B 11/B 12/T
MLS 053/082 059/083 060/083 055/076 050/075 055/084 055/080
13/T 34/T 44/T 44/T 22/T 12/T 22/T
4BQ 051/081 057/083 059/083 055/076 049/075 054/087 054/080
23/T 34/T 44/T 44/T 21/B 11/B 11/B
BHK 047/078 055/077 058/082 055/075 049/073 052/081 054/076
22/T 34/T 54/T 44/T 22/T 12/T 22/T
SHR 049/079 053/086 055/081 052/073 047/075 050/086 052/080
43/T 22/T 24/T 44/T 31/B 11/B 12/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
408 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS...STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A SURFACE COOL FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT... THEN DIP SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA EARLY WEDNESDAY... BEFORE GRADUALLY WASHING
OUT LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM TUESDAY...
LITTLE CHANGE WITH ANOTHER WARM FAIR NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE
AREA...WITH THE MID/UPR RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STILL IN CONTROL OF
OUR WEATHER. NOT TOO FAR TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID
ATLANTIC REGION AND THE OHIO VALLEY IS A COLD FRONT THATS GRADUALLY
MOVING ESE. THE HRRR ONCE AGAIN IS TRYING TO DEVELOP PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VA AND BRING THEM SOUTHWARD
SKIRTING OUR NORTHERN/NORTHEAST ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING. SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...THE HRRR SEEMS OVERDONE AND THE
LATEST MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT ANY CELLS THAT DEVELOP TO OUR
NORTH WILL MOVE INTO RELATIVELY DRIER AIR OVER OUR AREA...SO FOR
NOW... WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING LIMITED TO OUR FAR
NE ZONES...WITH MOST OF CENTRAL NC REMAINING DRY. PERSISTENCE FOR
LOWS TONIGHT...LOWER TO MID 70S...COOLEST NW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM TUESDAY...
THE WEAK BOUNDARY CURRENTLY TO OUR NORTH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT
SOUTH...BUT A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE INTO THE PERSISTENT MID/UPR
RIDGE. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST IT WILL MOVE INTO NE NC AS A
BACKDOOR FRONT WHILE THE ECMWF IS ALSO MOVES IT ACROSS OUR AREA
TONIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING LATE ON WEDNESDAY. BOTH SUGGEST SLIGHTLY
COOLER READINGS ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ABOUT 20M
LOWER THAN TODAY...AND COOLEST READINGS ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST ZONES
WHERE THE BEST CHANCE FOR POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS MODIFICATION WILL
OCCUR. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 90 ACROSS OUR NE
ZONES...TO MID-UPR 90S ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ZONES...WHERE
LITTLE IF ANY AIRMASS MODIFICATION WILL OCCUR. HEAT INDICES ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES (WHERE THE HOTTEST TEMPS WILL BE) ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL SHORT OF ADVISORY VALUES...SO FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING A
HEAT ADVISORY AND WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT RE-EVALUATE PENDING
TONIGHTS GUIDANCE.
OTHERWISE...THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE MID-MISS
RIVER VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...EXITING THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LATEST ROUND OF CAMS SUGGEST SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ASSOC WITH THIS WAVE WILL TRACK EAST ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC...WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS
ACTIVITY PERHAPS EXTENDING SOUTH INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL NC LATE IN
THE DAY WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW HIGHEST POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM TUESDAY...
THU-SAT: THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...THEN RECEDE TO
THE DEEP SOUTH/SOUTHEAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES (INCLUDING THE REMNANTS OF TC BILL) TRACKING
EASTWARD (ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE) INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC. EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE...THOUGH
HIGHS ARE UNLIKELY TO EXCEED THE MID/UPPER 90S GIVEN AN INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY ON FRI/SAT AS BILL`S
REMNANTS TRACK EAST OF THE MS RIVER THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AND MID-
ATLANTIC.
SUN-TUE: THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF/GFS SUGGEST THAT A PERIOD OF NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL ENSUE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE STRENGTHENS UPSTREAM OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND LOWER MIDWEST. THEREAFTER...BOTH MODELS INDICATE THAT
THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE CAROLINAS/MID-
ATLANTIC. AS A RESULT...EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
PERSIST...WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE (AGAIN) BY
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR TO POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL MON-TUE WHEN NW FLOW ALOFT IS
PROGGED TO BE IN PLACE. SEVERE WEATHER CAN RARELY BE RULED OUT WHEN
NW FLOW ALOFT IS PRESENT THIS TIME OF YEAR...PARTICULARLY WITH A
STRENGTHENING UPSTREAM RIDGE. SUCH A PATTERN CAN DELIVER THE
ATYPICAL INGREDIENTS NECESSARY FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER...
I.E. A PRONOUNCED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AND ENHANCED DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. -VINCENT
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM TUESDAY...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE VA BORDER THIS EVENING...AND
THIS COULD LOCALLY AND VERY BRIEFLY REDUCE FLT CONDITIONS TO MVFR...
BUT RIGHT NOW THE RISK IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN OUR TAF SITES. W-NW
WINDS AROUND 10 KT WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING ISOLATED LATE-DAY SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE
EACH DAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
REC HI
DAY MAX YR MIN YR
RDU RECORDS
06/16 98 1981 75 1998
06/17 99 1961 75 2004
06/18 98 1944 75 1935
GSO RECORDS
06/16 96 1914 73 2004
06/17 98 1944 76 2004
06/18 100 1944 73 1970
FAY RECORDS
06/16 100 1981 77 1998
06/17 101 1981 77 1945
06/18 102 1944 76 2004
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT TODAY FOR NCZ007>011-023>028-
039>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...RAH
CLIMATE...MLM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
325 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS...STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A SURFACE COOL FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT... THEN DIP SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA EARLY WEDNESDAY... BEFORE GRADUALLY WASHING
OUT LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM TUESDAY...
LITTLE CHANGE WITH ANOTHER WARM FAIR NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE
AREA...WITH THE MID/UPR RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STILL IN CONTROL OF
OUR WEATHER. NOT TOO FAR TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID
ATLANTIC REGION AND THE OHIO VALLEY IS A COLD FRONT THATS GRADUALLY
MOVING ESE. THE HRRR ONCE AGAIN IS TRYING TO DEVELOP PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VA AND BRING THEM SOUTHWARD
SKIRTING OUR NORTHERN/NORTHEAST ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING. SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...THE HRRR SEEMS OVERDONE AND THE
LATEST MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT ANY CELLS THAT DEVELOP TO OUR
NORTH WILL MOVE INTO RELATIVELY DRIER AIR OVER OUR AREA...SO FOR
NOW... WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING LIMITED TO OUR FAR
NE ZONES...WITH MOST OF CENTRAL NC REMAINING DRY. PERSISTENCE FOR
LOWS TONIGHT...LOWER TO MID 70S...COOLEST NW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM TUESDAY...
THE WEAK BOUNDARY CURRENTLY TO OUR NORTH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT
SOUTH...BUT A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE INTO THE PERSISTENT MID/UPR
RIDGE. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST IT WILL MOVE INTO NE NC AS A
BACKDOOR FRONT WHILE THE ECMWF IS ALSO MOVES IT ACROSS OUR AREA
TONIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING LATE ON WEDNESDAY. BOTH SUGGEST SLIGHTLY
COOLER READINGS ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ABOUT 20M
LOWER THAN TODAY...AND COOLEST READINGS ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST ZONES
WHERE THE BEST CHANCE FOR POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS MODIFICATION WILL
OCCUR. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 90 ACROSS OUR NE
ZONES...TO MID-UPR 90S ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ZONES...WHERE
LITTLE IF ANY AIRMASS MODIFICATION WILL OCCUR. HEAT INDICES ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES (WHERE THE HOTTEST TEMPS WILL BE) ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL SHORT OF ADVISORY VALUES...SO FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING A
HEAT ADVISORY AND WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT RE-EVALUATE PENDING
TONIGHTS GUIDANCE.
OTHERWISE...THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE MID-MISS
RIVER VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...EXITING THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LATEST ROUND OF CAMS SUGGEST SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ASSOC WITH THIS WAVE WILL TRACK EAST ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC...WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS
ACTIVITY PERHAPS EXTENDING SOUTH INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL NC LATE IN
THE DAY WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW HIGHEST POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 235 AM TUESDAY...
WITH BILL HAVING DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING
THE PAST 12 HOURS...THE LATEST (00Z) RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AS IT MOVES INLAND. THE
REMNANTS OF BILL ARE FORECAST TO GET ABSORBED BY THE WESTERLIES
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...RESULTING IN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IMPINGING ON THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH VA AND
PA. AS OF THE LATEST RUNS THE MAIN ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE SHOULD STAY TO OUR NW AND NORTH. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS ACTUALLY APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN
CENTRAL NC IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED S/W TO THE
NORTHWEST AND THE HIGH OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. CONVECTION MAY LINGER
ACROSS THE EAST ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAY END UP BEING
MOSTLY DRY WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM POSSIBLE... ALTHOUGH KEEP
IN MIND THAT IS PRETTY FAR OUT AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH
AT THIS TIME. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S...WHILE
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM TUESDAY...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE VA BORDER THIS EVENING...AND
THIS COULD LOCALLY AND VERY BRIEFLY REDUCE FLT CONDITIONS TO MVFR...
BUT RIGHT NOW THE RISK IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN OUR TAF SITES. W-NW
WINDS AROUND 10 KT WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING ISOLATED LATE-DAY SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE
EACH DAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
REC HI
DAY MAX YR MIN YR
RDU RECORDS
06/16 98 1981 75 1998
06/17 99 1961 75 2004
06/18 98 1944 75 1935
GSO RECORDS
06/16 96 1914 73 2004
06/17 98 1944 76 2004
06/18 100 1944 73 1970
FAY RECORDS
06/16 100 1981 77 1998
06/17 101 1981 77 1945
06/18 102 1944 76 2004
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT TODAY FOR NCZ007>011-023>028-
039>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...RAH
CLIMATE...MLM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
205 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A PROLONGED HEAT WAVE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK AS
AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH
A THERMAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH
CAROLINA. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN DISSIPATE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 100 PM TUE...ANOTHER MINOR UPDATE FOR LATEST HOURLY TEMP AND
DEW PT TRENDS. TEMPS APPROACHING 100 INLAND AND EVEN 98 AT KITTY
HAWK..BUT NW WINDS INLAND HAVE ALLOWED DEW PTS TO DROP INTO LOWER
60S COASTAL PLAINS KEEPING HEAT INDICES TO AROUND 100 FOR NOW.
LATEST HRRR INDICATES ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER HYDE/DARE MAINLAND
AREAS NEXT FEW HOURS AND THERE IS SOME CU DEVELOPING THERE...BUT
DO NOT SEE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO ADD 20 POP.
/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 635 AM TUESDAY...THE BIG STORY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
RECORD HEAT WITH HIGHS INLAND IN THE LOW 100S IN COMBINATION WITH
HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS (DEWPOINTS 67-75F) PRODUCING DANGEROUS HEAT
INDEX VALUES 105 DEGREES OR HIGHER. THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL REACH IT`S PEAK TODAY. ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL WARM THE ATMOSPHERE RESULTING
IN 850 TEMPS 22-23C AND 1000/850 THICKNESS VALUES 1440-1450
YIELDING TEMPERATURES AT OR IN EXCESS OF 100 DEGREES. INITIAL
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP TO PIN THE SEA BREEZE TO THE COAST
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON SO THAT EVEN THE BEACHES WILL NOT ESCAPE
HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TODAY. CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS KEEP
TODAY DRY WITH SUBSIDENCE AS INDICATED BY THE LARGE AREA OF DRY
MID LEVEL AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SO WILL CONTINUE WITH
THAT TREND ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER/STORM CAN`T BE RULED OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM TUESDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NC TONIGHT. WHILE
THE MODELS AGREE THAT THE FLOW WILL TEMPORARILY SHIFT TO NORTH
OVERNIGHT THEY ARE GIVING MIXED RESULTS ON THE PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL. THE HIGH RESOLUTION CAM MODELS INDICATE THAT A MCS WILL
BE MOVING SOUTHEAST VICINITY OF THE FRONT ACROSS NC THIS EVENING
WITH THE WRF NMM THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE
MOSTLY DRY BRINGING IN CLOUDS BUT LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION. DUE
TO THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS POTENTIAL. IT IS NOTED THAT THE SPC HAS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
IN A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK MEANING THAT STRONG CONVECTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE SHOULD THESE STORMS MATERIALIZE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWS 70S DEEP INLAND TO A SULTRY 80 AT THE BEACHES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM TUESDAY...A PERSISTENT SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS
ANCHORED ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH EASTERN NC EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TYPICAL DIURNAL TYPE
SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE HOLDS
STRONG. THURSDAY COULD SEE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR TSTORMS
AS THE PIEDMONT THERMAL TROUGH RE-ESTABLISHES WEST OF THE AREA
WITH A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTING OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST,
CREATING A WEAK LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE AREA CENTERED OVER EASTERN NC
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NAM/GFS FAVOR A WETTER SCENARIO WHILE THE
ECMWF SUGGEST DRIER LOW LEVELS AND QUICKER SHIFT OF CONFLUENCE
ZONE OFF THE COAST. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS INLAND TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ALONG/OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
ONLY DROP BY AROUND 20 METERS AND 850MB TEMPS BY ABOUT 2 DEGREES
SO WILL NOT SEE A SIGNIFICANT RELIEF FROM THE HEAT THROUGH MID
WEEK. HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE MID 90S INLAND TO 85-90 ALONG THE COAST.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SLIGHT DIFFERENCES CONTINUE IN
THE 00Z GUIDANCE LATE IN THE PERIOD, MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH HOW
THEY HANDLE THE TRACK/MOISTURE PLUME OF TROPICAL STORM BILL
CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST. CURRENT GUIDANCE
KEEPS THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
THOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE BECOMES SHUNTED SOUTHEAST SLIGHTLY OFF THE
FL COAST BY SATURDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS SUGGEST A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO EASTERN NC LATE FRIDAY, THOUGH
BEST UPPER SUPPORT/FORCING REMAIN IN CENTRAL VA, WITH THE FRONT
WASHING OUT OVER THE REGION SATURDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AGAIN ENSUES OVER EASTERN NC. GUIDANCE DIFFERS MORE WITH LOCATION
OF DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THE ECMWF MOVING THE MOISTURE THROUGH
EASTERN NC FRI NIGHT, WHILE THE GFS KEEPS DEEPER MOISTURE OVER
EASTERN NC THROUGH SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MAINLY
DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF KEEP 850MB TEMPS AROUND 20 DEGREES WITH LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES AROUND 1425-1440M SO THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE AND EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S INLAND WITH 85-90 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ZONAL FLOW STARTS THE PERIOD WITH A UPPER
TROUGH GRADUALLY DIGGING INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY
THE CAROLINAS WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA
LATE IN THE PERIOD. CONTINUE DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION WITH
HEIGHT FALLS AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH 850MB TEMPS REMAINING AROUND 20 DEGREES WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING HIGHS IN THE 90S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE
COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...THEREFORE REDUCING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOPMENT FOR THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL APRROACH OUR AREA FROM THE NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS ARE
INDICATING MOST OF THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL DIMINISH AS IT MOVES INTO OUR AREA. PLUS...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING NO FOG DEVELOPMENT AS TEMPERATURE AND
DEWPOINT IS ABOVE 5 DEGREE SPREAD. OVERALL...EXPECT SCATTERED
CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON UNDER LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 450 AM TUES...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TAF SITES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
ISOLATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN MAINLY DIURNAL STORMS POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON. PRE-DAWN STRATUS AND/OR FOG MAY PRODUCE SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE
PRECIPITATION.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE. LATEST GDNC
SUPPORTS CURRENT WESTERLY WINDS BECOMING SW AND INCREASING TO
10-15 KT LATE THIS AFTN AS THERMAL TROFFING SHARPENS INLAND.
/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 635 AM TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS CURRENTLY 10 TO 15 KT WILL
BRIEFLY DIMINISH TO 10 KT LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE INCREASING
AGAIN TO 15 KT LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE WATERS TONIGHT WITH THE FLOW SHIFTING TO NORTH AROUND 15 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT TODAY WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT
TONIGHT WITH SOME 5 FT SEAS POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS
LATE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 450 AM TUES...A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL DROP THROUGH THE WATERS
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY
AT 5 TO 10 KTS. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH FLOW
BECOMING SOUTHERLY THEN SOUTHWESTERLY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO
15 TO 20 KNOTS INTO FRIDAY. SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 4 FEET ACROSS THE
WATERS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD, HOWEVER SEAS MAY BUILD TO 3
TO 5 FEET THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS TODAY:
6/16
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 95/1981 (KEWN ASOS)
HATTERAS 92/1981 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 100/1981 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 98/1981 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 99/1944 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 101/1981 (KNCA AWOS)
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ029-044>047-
079>081-090>095-098-103-104.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME/JBM
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...SK/DAG
AVIATION...DAG/BM
MARINE...JME/JBM/SK/DAG
CLIMATE...MHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1235 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2015
.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGs are beginning to lift and scatter out to VFR across at
the TAF sites. Any TAF site could see a brief return of these
lower conditions but do not see this threat great enough to
include in the TAFs. Scattered showers are also occurring across
the area but very little if any lightning is being observed so
will not mention any TS at this time. A return of MVFR CIGs is
expected tonight and will last through mid morning Wednesday.
Hennig
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2015/
DISCUSSION...As of 4:00 AM CDT Tuesday...the strong convection
near Guadalupe NP has finally died out.
Water Vapor imagery and GOES High Density winds are showing a
ridge centered in the East Pacific west of Southern CA stretching
into Northern Chihuahua and another ridge centered over the
Southeastern US. A weakness in the pattern is centered over the
Southern Plains with a weak upper low over TX...possibly enhanced
by the MCV that was located over Reagan County earlier yesterday.
TS Bill in the Gulf of Mexico continues to churn northwest
towards the Southern TX coast.
The latest NAM12 and HRRR develops convection over Central TX
early this morning and move it southwest into the CWA in NE flow
aloft. Based on the forecast track TS Bill will have minimal
impact on the sensible weather for West TX and SE New Mexico. With
fairly stable mid level lapse rates...low CAPE...and very weak
Bulk Shear do not expect any severe wx. The main impact from the
convection will be the possibility of heavy rain and localized
flooding with PW`s near 1.5 inches and the slow movement of the
storms. Temps will be relatively "cool" with ample cloud cover.
Precip chances will be much less tonight through Wednesday night
as the ridge in the Pacific and Northern Chihuahua builds east
into Southwest TX. Models drop a vort max south thru West TX on
Thursday around the eastern edge of the ridge. This could bring an
increasing chance of convection Thursday and Thursday night.
From Friday through early next week the ridge in the Eastern
Pacific will move ENE...and become centered over the Southern
Rockies/Central High Plains in response to a mid/upper trough in
the Gulf of Alaska. Since the ridge will be centered north of the
CWA it will leave the area in a deep layer easterly flow. Have
kept temps near normal...more in line with the European MOS
guidance. Felt that the GFS MOS guidance with temps above 100 for
Midland was too high for this type of pattern. Even though the
models don`t indicate it at this time...this type of pattern is
conducive for isolated aftn convection...especially if any
easterly waves move across the Gulf of Mexico.
Strobin
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
10
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1217 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2015
.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will increase across all of
West Central Texas this afternoon. Thunderstorms may result in
brief MVFR conditions. A gradual decrease in convection is
expected by mid to late evening. Stratus will once again develop
this evening into early Wednesday morning, resulting in MVFR/IFR
ceilings at all sites.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1103 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2015/
UPDATE...
To increase PoPs...
DISCUSSION...
A very moist and increasingly unstable atmosphere will reside
across West Central Texas today. Showers are already beginning to
develop across the area, and coverage and intensity is expected to
increase as we head into the afternoon hours. The HRRR seems to
have a good handle on the current activity and supports scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. PoPs were
increased slightly across the area and heavy rain was added to the
forecast. Temperatures were also tweaked down slightly given the
expected cloud cover and precipitation. Otherwise, no other
changes are needed at this time.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2015/
AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Widespread stratus will produce MVFR/IFR ceilings at the terminals
this morning. The ceilings will lift to low end VFR at most of the
terminals this afternoon and evening, and then low clouds return
late tonight, with IFR ceilings at the terminals. The combination
of a tropical airmass and some instability will produce scattered
showers and thunderstorms through much of the TAF forecast period.
Going with mainly VCSH/VCTS at the terminals, with a few hours of
5SM SHRA.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2015/
SHORT TERM...
Good rain chances continue for most of West Central Texas for the
next 24 hours. Tropical Storm Bill will move onshore sometime
today, likely this morning, near Port Lavaca. The latest forecast
track brings this system to near Goldwaite around sunrise
Wednesday morning. Meanwhile, a weak disturbance aloft over West
Texas will continue to enhance rain chances for West Central Texas
today and tonight. Based on model forecasts, the best rain
chances will be mainly across our eastern counties; however,
tropical systems like Bill have historically not produced heavy
rainfall for our eastern counties, if the track is too far east.
This is because sinking air aloft usually occurs to the west of
these tropical systems. Thus, our confidence regrading the
potential for heavy rainfall is not high enough to issue any Flash
Flood Watch, at this time. We do believe our eastern counties will
receive more rainfall, during the next 24 hours, than our other
counties. The question is how much?
LONG TERM...
The long term forecast includes rain chances through Friday, before
drier air moves into Texas and ends rain chance, for the remainder
of the long term. Models are in fair good agreement through the
end of this week, and they continue a weak disturbance over Texas.
The GFS and ECMWF slowly move this weak disturbance aloft away from
Texas and toward the northeast later this week. Thus, diminishing
rain chances into Friday look reasonable. For Saturday and into
the start of next week, high pressure builds over Texas from the
west, and a dry pattern will dominate West Central Texas.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 68 81 69 88 69 / 50 60 30 30 20
San Angelo 68 86 68 88 69 / 40 50 20 20 20
Junction 69 85 69 85 69 / 50 60 40 40 30
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
Daniels
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1103 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2015
.UPDATE...
To increase PoPs...
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A very moist and increasingly unstable atmosphere will reside
across West Central Texas today. Showers are already beginning to
develop across the area, and coverage and intensity is expected to
increase as we head into the afternoon hours. The HRRR seems to
have a good handle on the current activity and supports scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. PoPs were
increased slightly across the area and heavy rain was added to the
forecast. Temperatures were also tweaked down slightly given the
expected cloud cover and precipitation. Otherwise, no other
changes are needed at this time.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2015/
AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Widespread stratus will produce MVFR/IFR ceilings at the terminals
this morning. The ceilings will lift to low end VFR at most of the
terminals this afternoon and evening, and then low clouds return
late tonight, with IFR ceilings at the terminals. The combination
of a tropical airmass and some instability will produce scattered
showers and thunderstorms through much of the TAF forecast period.
Going with mainly VCSH/VCTS at the terminals, with a few hours of
5SM SHRA.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2015/
SHORT TERM...
Good rain chances continue for most of West Central Texas for the
next 24 hours. Tropical Storm Bill will move onshore sometime
today, likely this morning, near Port Lavaca. The latest forecast
track brings this system to near Goldwaite around sunrise
Wednesday morning. Meanwhile, a weak disturbance aloft over West
Texas will continue to enhance rain chances for West Central Texas
today and tonight. Based on model forecasts, the best rain
chances will be mainly across our eastern counties; however,
tropical systems like Bill have historically not produced heavy
rainfall for our eastern counties, if the track is too far east.
This is because sinking air aloft usually occurs to the west of
these tropical systems. Thus, our confidence regrading the
potential for heavy rainfall is not high enough to issue any Flash
Flood Watch, at this time. We do believe our eastern counties will
receive more rainfall, during the next 24 hours, than our other
counties. The question is how much?
LONG TERM...
The long term forecast includes rain chances through Friday, before
drier air moves into Texas and ends rain chance, for the remainder
of the long term. Models are in fair good agreement through the
end of this week, and they continue a weak disturbance over Texas.
The GFS and ECMWF slowly move this weak disturbance aloft away from
Texas and toward the northeast later this week. Thus, diminishing
rain chances into Friday look reasonable. For Saturday and into
the start of next week, high pressure builds over Texas from the
west, and a dry pattern will dominate West Central Texas.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 68 81 69 88 69 / 50 60 30 30 20
San Angelo 68 86 68 88 69 / 40 50 20 20 20
Junction 69 85 69 85 69 / 50 60 40 40 30
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
Daniels
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
601 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN
GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT HAS
SETTLEDOVER THE OHIO VALLEY. DIURNAL CU POPPED LATE THIS MORNING
OVER CENTRAL AND NE WI...WHILE NORTH-CENTRAL WI HAS ENJOYED MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS. LOOKING UPSTREAM...CLOUDS AND RAIN ARE SPREADING
EAST OVER THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BLACK HILLS. AS THESE CLOUDS
AND RAIN SPREAD EAST...PRECIP TRENDS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN.
TONIGHT...RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE UPPER JET COMBINED WITH MID-LEVEL
THETAE ADVECTION WILL PUSH CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN AND MOST OF
CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE EVENING. SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE POINTS
TOWARDS THE PRECIP DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES INTO DRIER AND STABLE
AIR CLOSER TO THE SURFACE HIGH. SOME OF THIS RAIN WILL TRY TO
MAKE A RUN INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE...AND WILL LEAVE A
SMALL CHANCE IN THE FORECAST. UNDER INCREASING CLOUDS...LOWS IN
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S.
WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AS AN
INVERTED TROUGH TIGHTENS OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. GUIDANCE PEGS
THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN AND ALSO SNEAKING UP INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN AND THE WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA. AS A RESULT...HAVE
BACKED OFF PRECIP CHANCES EXCEPT FOR VILAS COUNTY WHERE MAINTAINED
LIKELY WORDING. THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN US WILL BRING SEVERAL SYSTEMS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPS LOOK TO
REMAIN WITHIN 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE/BELOW NORMAL.
THE FIRST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FROM WEDNESDAY
EVENING INTO THURSDAY...AS A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. TIME OF DAY COMBINED WITH OVERALL
INSTABILITY STAYING LOW (UNDER 500 J/KG) SHOULD KEEP THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT DOWN...BUT DECENT 0-6KM SHEAR OF 35-50 KTS ALONG
WITH A SMALL RIBBON OF INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT COULD PRODUCE
AT LEAST SOME BRIEF ORGANIZED STORM ACTIVITY. SPC CONTINUES TO
HIGHLIGHT CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WITH A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. CHANCE POPS LOOK GOOD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES
PLANNED. PWATS OVER AN INCH COULD BRING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
ON THURSDAY...THERE WILL BE LINGERING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND SHORTWAVE CROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING AS THE FRONT COMPLETES ITS
PASSAGE OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION
SHOULD KEEP ANY ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON ISOLATED AT BEST.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
THURSDAY EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST...PRODUCING CONVECTION ACROSS
MINNESOTA ON FRIDAY...WHICH WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHERN WI LATE IN
THE DAY...AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...STILL HARD TO PIN DOWN THE DETAILS...INCLUDING THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER...AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND CLOUDS
(LIMITING INSTABILITY) WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE NEW CONVECTION
WILL BE ABLE TO FIRE. WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS ON SATURDAY WHEN
MODELS SEEM TO POINT TO THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY OVER THE
AREA. THE REMNANTS OF BILL WILL ATTEMPT TO REACH WI THIS
WEEKEND...BUT THE ZONAL FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THIS
MOISTURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THAT SAID...PWATS BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.5
INCHES WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.
IF THE BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH OF THE AREA...SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY COULD TURN OUT TO BE MAINLY DRY. WILL LEAN THE FORECAST
THAT WAY AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS IS THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO...BUT MODELS STILL SHOWING THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS OR
STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCES MOVING EASTWARD IN THE
ZONAL FLOW. WILL KEEP SOME LOWER POPS IN THIS PERIOD TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 601 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN SEASONABLY STG WLY FLOW ALOFT WL CONT TO
CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES RGN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. HIGH
AND MIDDLE CLDS WITH ONE SUCH FEATURE WL SPREAD ACRS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. LEADING AREA OF RN OVER MN WL PROBABLY DISSIPATE AS IT
NEARS THE RGN. WL CARRY SPRINKLES AT RHI TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
REMNANTS. SOME RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THE PCPN IS EXPECTED WED. THAT
COULD AFFECT N-C WI TOMORROW AFTN...BUT WL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER 00Z THU FOR THE REST OF THE TAF SITES.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......BERSCH
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN
GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT HAS
SETTLEDOVER THE OHIO VALLEY. DIURNAL CU POPPED LATE THIS MORNING
OVER CENTRAL AND NE WI...WHILE NORTH-CENTRAL WI HAS ENJOYED MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS. LOOKING UPSTREAM...CLOUDS AND RAIN ARE SPREADING
EAST OVER THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BLACK HILLS. AS THESE CLOUDS
AND RAIN SPREAD EAST...PRECIP TRENDS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN.
TONIGHT...RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE UPPER JET COMBINED WITH MID-LEVEL
THETAE ADVECTION WILL PUSH CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN AND MOST OF
CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE EVENING. SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE POINTS
TOWARDS THE PRECIP DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES INTO DRIER AND STABLE
AIR CLOSER TO THE SURFACE HIGH. SOME OF THIS RAIN WILL TRY TO
MAKE A RUN INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE...AND WILL LEAVE A
SMALL CHANCE IN THE FORECAST. UNDER INCREASING CLOUDS...LOWS IN
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S.
WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AS AN
INVERTED TROUGH TIGHTENS OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. GUIDANCE PEGS
THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN AND ALSO SNEAKING UP INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN AND THE WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA. AS A RESULT...HAVE
BACKED OFF PRECIP CHANCES EXCEPT FOR VILAS COUNTY WHERE MAINTAINED
LIKELY WORDING. THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN US WILL BRING SEVERAL SYSTEMS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPS LOOK TO
REMAIN WITHIN 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE/BELOW NORMAL.
THE FIRST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FROM WEDNESDAY
EVENING INTO THURSDAY...AS A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. TIME OF DAY COMBINED WITH OVERALL
INSTABILITY STAYING LOW (UNDER 500 J/KG) SHOULD KEEP THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT DOWN...BUT DECENT 0-6KM SHEAR OF 35-50 KTS ALONG
WITH A SMALL RIBBON OF INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT COULD PRODUCE
AT LEAST SOME BRIEF ORGANIZED STORM ACTIVITY. SPC CONTINUES TO
HIGHLIGHT CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WITH A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. CHANCE POPS LOOK GOOD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES
PLANNED. PWATS OVER AN INCH COULD BRING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
ON THURSDAY...THERE WILL BE LINGERING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND SHORTWAVE CROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING AS THE FRONT COMPLETES ITS
PASSAGE OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION
SHOULD KEEP ANY ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON ISOLATED AT BEST.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
THURSDAY EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST...PRODUCING CONVECTION ACROSS
MINNESOTA ON FRIDAY...WHICH WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHERN WI LATE IN
THE DAY...AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...STILL HARD TO PIN DOWN THE DETAILS...INCLUDING THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER...AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND CLOUDS
(LIMITING INSTABILITY) WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE NEW CONVECTION
WILL BE ABLE TO FIRE. WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS ON SATURDAY WHEN
MODELS SEEM TO POINT TO THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY OVER THE
AREA. THE REMNANTS OF BILL WILL ATTEMPT TO REACH WI THIS
WEEKEND...BUT THE ZONAL FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THIS
MOISTURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THAT SAID...PWATS BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.5
INCHES WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.
IF THE BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH OF THE AREA...SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY COULD TURN OUT TO BE MAINLY DRY. WILL LEAN THE FORECAST
THAT WAY AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS IS THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO...BUT MODELS STILL SHOWING THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS OR
STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCES MOVING EASTWARD IN THE
ZONAL FLOW. WILL KEEP SOME LOWER POPS IN THIS PERIOD TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
SCATTERED 4000 FT CLOUDS WILL PASS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS WILL
DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING...WHILE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN AND
LOWER FROM THE WEST. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. MODELS TRENDING TOWARDS BRINGING IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WI BY MIDDAY WHILE LEAVING THE REST
OF THE AREA DRY. SO KEPT PRECIP OUT OF THE TAFS THOUGH IT WILL BE A
CLOSE CALL AT RHI.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......BERSCH
AVIATION.......MPC