Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/15/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
845 PM MST SUN JUN 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS... THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF GILA COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...SKIES WILL
BE SUNNY WITH A CONTINUED WARMING TREND. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BECOME SITUATED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS WEEK LEADING TO
SEASONABLY HOT CONDITIONS. MANY LOWER DESERTS LOCATIONS WILL SEE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF TEMPERATURES ABOVE 110 DEGREES.
&&
.DISCUSSION... WEAK UPPER TROF CONTINUED TO SAG SOUTHEAST AND OUT OF
ARIZONA THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STARTED BUILDING INTO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FROM OFF THE SRN CA COAST. LINGERING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA COMBINED WITH MODEST INSTABILITY TO
ALLOW ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ARIZONA...AND THE WEAK NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW ALLOWED ISOLATED WEAK
STORMS TO DRIFT INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. MLCAPE OVER THE LOWER DESERTS REMAINED MINIMAL
AND THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS WERE ON THE LOW SIDE MOSTLY RANGING FROM
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. AS SUCH...THERE WAS A VERY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT
OVER THE DESERTS TODAY WHICH WOULD NOT SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT AND
AS SUCH THE HIGHER TERRAIN STORMS DISSIPATED WELL BEFORE REACHING
LOWER ELEVATIONS. AS OF 8 PM CONVECTION HAD PRETTY MUCH ENDED OVER
THE STATE AND SKIES CONTINUED TO CLEAR LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR OR CLEAR
SKIES OVER OUR AREA. FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT WE CAN EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR/CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPS.
CURRENT FORECASTS LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA AND ARE SLOWLY MAKING THEIR WAY SOUTHWARD. LATEST SPC
MESOANALYSIS AND RAP FORECAST INDICATES AN UNFAVORABLE...STABLE
ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ASIDE
FROM SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS ACROSS MARICOPA/LA
PAZ COUNTIES...IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH THESE SHOWERS. HRRR
INDICATES THEY WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS EVENING...LOCAL WRFS...UA
WRF...AND SPC SSEO ALL ADVERTISE SIMILAR SOLUTIONS AND I HAVE NO
REASON TO ARGUE AGAINST THESE DATA.
THE BIG STORY THIS WEEK WILL BE THE RETURN OF 110+ DEGREE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. 12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE
RUN-TO-RUN TREND OF INCREASING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION AND
NEARLY ALL AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS POINTING TO A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF DANGEROUSLY HOT TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THIS IS THE FIRST SUBSTANTIAL
HEAT WAVE OF THE YEAR AND THAT TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN AT OR BELOW
NORMAL FOR SUCH A LONG TIME...I ELECTED TO ISSUE AN EXCESSIVE HEAT
WATCH FOR MOST LOWER DESERT LOCALES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOT ON MONDAY...THE IMPACTS WILL LIKELY NOT BE
REALIZED UNTIL TUESDAY AND BEYOND. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 110-115
RANGE WILL BE COMMON AND THESE NUMBERS ARE SUPPORTED BY A PLETHORA OF
ENSEMBLE DATA. THE ONLY SILVER LINING TO BE FOUND THIS WEEK IS THAT
OVERNIGHT LOWS WON`T BE IN THE 90S DURING THIS EVENT. OUTLYING DESERT
LOCALES SHOULD BE ABLE TO FALL INTO THE MID 70S WHEREAS THE URBAN
CORE OF PHOENIX WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW/MID 80S. SOME RELIEF...BUT NOT
MUCH.
IT`S ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME MIXED SYMBOLS IN THE GUIDANCE THAT
FAR OUT. SOME DATA SUGGEST TEMPS RETREATING BELOW THE 110 MARK
WHEREAS OTHER DATA MAINTAINS 110-112 THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. EITHER
WAY...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL BE LOOKING AT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CONVECTION OVER HIGHER TERRAIN HAS ENDED AND WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
OUTFLOW WINDS TO MOVE IN AND AFFECT THE CENTRAL DESERT TERMINALS
TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND DIURNAL OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS IN THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA...AND SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR OR CLEAR. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE SOUTH AT KBLH
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20KT POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW. WINDS TO FAVOR THE SOUTHEAST AT KIPL
MOSTLY AOB 12KT. NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS AT ANY TERMINAL
NEXT 24 HOURS AT LEAST.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN VERY HOT DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
QUICKLY TRANSITION THE HAINES INDEX TO A 5-6/MODERATE-HIGH...AND
ELEVATE FIRE DANGER AND EXPECTED FIRE BEHAVIOR. WINDS WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE WITH LOCAL AFTERNOON RIDGETOP GUSTS DURING THE PEAK
HEATING HOURS EACH DAY...FOLLOWED BY FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY MOST
LOCATIONS.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR AZZ020>023-025>028.
CA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR CAZ031>033.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS/LEINS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
940 AM MST SAT JUN 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WHILE A COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES MAY SPARK SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY WITH
A WARMING TREND BEGINNING SUNDAY. MUCH STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST NEXT WEEK LEADING TO A SIGNIFICANT
WARM UP WHERE MANY LOWER DESERTS LOCATIONS WILL FINALLY REACH THE 110
DEGREE THRESHOLD.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A SMALL POCKET OF COOLER AIR ALOFT OVER
NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING WHILE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S HAVE RESULTED IN MODEST
INSTABILITY OVER THIS AREA. SATELLITE IMAGERY IDENTIFIES THIS REGION
VERY WELL IN THE FORM OF CONGESTIVE ACCAS GENERALLY ALONG THE I-40
CORRIDOR. WHILE LARGER SCALE ASCENT HAS SHIFTED MORE SOUTH AND
EAST...SEVERAL HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ONCE AGAIN TODAY PINPOINT SOME
SHOWERS DESCENDING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN REACHES OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS FAR MORE PALTRY
ACROSS CNTRL ARIZONA...SUCH THAT ANY SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE DISTINCTLY HALTED. ONLY VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE TO POP COVERAGE AND TIMING AS PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD THIS
EVOLUTION COVERED.
OTHERWISE...MID MORNING TEMPERATURES WERE TRENDING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY OWING TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE H8-
H7 THERMAL LAYER ALBEIT WITH HEIGHTS ALOFT NEARLY STEADY STATE. ONLY
SMALL ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE HOURLY
TEMPERATURE TRENDS...AS WELL AS MORE WELL DEFINED BUBBLE OF DRIER
AIR WORKING THROUGH CNTRL ARIZONA.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/409 AM MST SAT JUN 13 2015/
LATEST CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR SUGGESTS THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN AN AREA STRETCHING FROM
JTNP EASTWARD INTO EXTREME NORTHWESTERN MARICOPA COUNTY AND POPS
HAVE BEEN BUMPED UPWARD TO AROUND 10 PERCENT IN THESE AREAS. THE
FOCUS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY AS RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PROMOTES ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MOGOLLON RIM AND INTO GILA COUNTY...THOUGH POPS AGAIN WILL
REMAIN NO HIGHER THAN AROUND 10 PERCENT.
BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE BUILDING HEAT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS AROUND A RIDGE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. STEADY
THICKNESS RISES WILL TRANSLATE INTO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...LIKELY REACHING THE 110 DEGREE MARK IN PHOENIX
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. ON AVERAGE...A 110 DEGREE HIGH IN PHOENIX IS
REACHED JUNE 10TH.
THICKNESSES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...THOUGH THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST MOISTURE DRIFTING
NORTHWARD OUT OF MEXICO WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES.
BOUNDARY LAYER HEAT OFTEN TENDS TO LINGER LONGER THAN THE MODELS
SUGGEST THIS TIME OF YEAR AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN ADJUSTED ABOVE THE BIAS-CORRECTED CONSENSUS BLEND AND TOWARDS
THE UPPER TERCILE OF THE MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AND THIS
SHOULD REMAIN THE CASE AT ALL SITES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
EXPECTING SOME DISTANT MOUNTAIN CU NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX AFTER 20Z
BUT IMPACTS WILL BE NIL AT THE PHOENIX TERMINALS. COULD SEE SOME SHRA
OR TSRA TO THE WEST OF BLH THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT SHOULD BE ISOLATED
ENOUGH THAT IT ISN`T NECESSARY FOR THE TAFS. AS FOR WINDS...EXPECT
LIGHT/DIURNALLY DRIVEN SPEEDS/DIRECTIONS AT ALL SITES.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
INCREASING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL JUNE
PATTERN OF DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN INCREASING TEMPERATURES
AND DECREASING HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE AREA. SINGLE DIGIT AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEK WITH FAIR
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES IN MOST SPOTS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE
ALTHOUGH SOME OCCASIONAL LATE AFTERNOON RIDGETOP BREEZINESS CAN BE
EXPECTED /TYPICAL FOR MID JUNE/. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT ANY TIME THIS WEEK.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...MO/HIRSCH
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PHOENIX AZ
409 AM MST SAT JUN 13 2015
.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
WHILE A COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES MAY SPARK SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY WITH
A WARMING TREND BEGINNING SUNDAY. MUCH STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST NEXT WEEK LEADING TO A SIGNIFICANT
WARMUP WHERE MANY LOWER DESERTS LOCATIONS WILL FINALLY REACH THE 110
DEGREE THRESHOLD.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT VORT MAX ALONG THE SOUTHERN CA
COAST WITH DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDING ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT AND
NORTHERN AZ. LATEST NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE DAY MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN AZ AS THE VORT MAX DROPS INTO NORTHERN SONORA. VORTICITY AND
JET-FORCED ASCENT WILL BE WEAK AND DISPLACED INTO NORTHERN MEXICO.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION FURTHER NORTH
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
LATEST CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR SUGGESTS THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN AN AREA STRETCHING FROM JTNP
EASTWARD INTO EXTREME NORTHWESTERN MARICOPA COUNTY AND POPS HAVE BEEN
BUMPED UPWARD TO AROUND 10 PERCENT IN THESE AREAS. THE FOCUS WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY AS RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
PROMOTES ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND
INTO GILA COUNTY...THOUGH POPS AGAIN WILL REMAIN NO HIGHER THAN
AROUND 10 PERCENT.
BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE BUILDING HEAT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS AROUND A RIDGE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. STEADY
THICKNESS RISES WILL TRANSLATE INTO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...LIKELY REACHING THE 110 DEGREE MARK IN PHOENIX
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. ON AVERAGE...A 110 DEGREE HIGH IN PHOENIX IS
REACHED JUNE 10TH.
THICKNESSES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...THOUGH THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST MOISTURE DRIFTING
NORTHWARD OUT OF MEXICO WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES.
BOUNDARY LAYER HEAT OFTEN TENDS TO LINGER LONGER THAN THE MODELS
SUGGEST THIS TIME OF YEAR AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN ADJUSTED ABOVE THE BIAS-CORRECTED CONSENSUS BLEND AND TOWARDS
THE UPPER TERCILE OF THE MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AND THIS
SHOULD REMAIN THE CASE AT ALL SITES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
EXPECTING SOME DISTANT MOUNTAIN CU NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX AFTER 20Z
BUT IMPACTS WILL BE NIL AT THE PHOENIX TERMINALS. COULD SEE SOME SHRA
OR TSRA TO THE WEST OF BLH THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT SHOULD BE ISOLATED
ENOUGH THAT IT ISN`T NECESSARY FOR THE TAFS. AS FOR WINDS...EXPECT
LIGHT/DIURNALLY DRIVEN SPEEDS/DIRECTIONS AT ALL SITES.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
INCREASING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL JUNE
PATTERN OF DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN INCREASING TEMPERATURES
AND DECREASING HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE AREA. SINGLE DIGIT AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEK WITH FAIR
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES IN MOST SPOTS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE
ALTHOUGH SOME OCCASIONAL LATE AFTERNOON RIDGETOP BREEZINESS CAN BE
EXPECTED /TYPICAL FOR MID JUNE/. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT ANY TIME THIS WEEK.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
328 AM MST SAT JUN 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WHILE A COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES MAY SPARK SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY WITH
A WARMING TREND BEGINNING SUNDAY. MUCH STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST NEXT WEEK LEADING TO A SIGNIFICANT
WARMUP WHERE MANY LOWER DESERTS LOCATIONS WILL FINALLY REACH THE 110
DEGREE THRESHOLD.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT VORT MAX ALONG THE SOUTHERN CA
COAST WITH DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDING ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT AND
NORTHERN AZ. LATEST NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE DAY MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN AZ AS THE VORT MAX DROPS INTO NORTHERN SONORA. VORTICITY AND
JET-FORCED ASCENT WILL BE WEAK AND DISPLACED INTO NORTHERN MEXICO.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION FURTHER NORTH
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
LATEST CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR SUGGESTS THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN AN AREA STRETCHING FROM JTNP
EASTWARD INTO EXTREME NORTHWESTERN MARICOPA COUNTY AND POPS HAVE BEEN
BUMPED UPWARD TO AROUND 10 PERCENT IN THESE AREAS. THE FOCUS WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY AS RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
PROMOTES ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND
INTO GILA COUNTY...THOUGH POPS AGAIN WILL REMAIN NO HIGHER THAN
AROUND 10 PERCENT.
BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE BUILDING HEAT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS AROUND A RIDGE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. STEADY
THICKNESS RISES WILL TRANSLATE INTO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...LIKELY REACHING THE 110 DEGREE MARK IN PHOENIX
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. ON AVERAGE...A 110 DEGREE HIGH IN PHOENIX IS
REACHED JUNE 10TH.
THICKNESSES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...THOUGH THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST MOISTURE DRIFTING
NORTHWARD OUT OF MEXICO WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES.
BOUNDARY LAYER HEAT OFTEN TENDS TO LINGER LONGER THAN THE MODELS
SUGGEST THIS TIME OF YEAR AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN ADJUSTED ABOVE THE BIAS-CORRECTED CONSENSUS BLEND AND TOWARDS
THE UPPER TERCILE OF THE MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE.
&&
.AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND
KSDL...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL
AND KBLH...
FOLLOWING SUNSET SKIES CUMULUS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX HAS
DISSIPATED AND WE SHOULD SEE GENLY CLEAR SKIES AT ALL TAF SITES FOR
AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WITH VERY WEAK LOW/SURFACE
GRADIENTS...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT DIURNAL ACROSS
THE CENTRAL DESERTS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED OUT WEST...FAVORING THE SOUTH AT KBLH WITH SPEEDS
MOSTLY AOB 12KT. WINDS SHOULD FAVOR THE SOUTHEAST AT KIPL THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTN...BUT MAY BRIEFLY SWING TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AFTER
04Z THIS EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT BY SUNRISE TOMORROW.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES HEATING
UP THROUGH THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 105-110
DEGREE RANGE STARTING MONDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT ALSO DURING THIS PERIOD WITH MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES DROPPING TO NEAR 10 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
DESERTS. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS EACH
DAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
NOT ANTICIPATED AT ANY TIME DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...CDEWEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
141 PM PDT SAT JUN 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
RESIDUAL MOISTURE OVER THE RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN
BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS...AND HIGH DESERTS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL FORM AGAIN TONIGHT WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS WITH DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. SUNDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK...AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTH BRINGING DRIER AND WARMER AIR TO THE REGION. BY
TUESDAY...INLAND LOCATIONS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP AT 1 PM PDT SHOWS A THINNING MARINE STRATUS
LAYER STRETCHING FROM THE OUTER WATERS TO AROUND 15 MILES INLAND.
PILOT REPORTS HAVE SHOWN THE TOP OF THESE CLOUDS AT AROUND 2700 FT
MSL. ACCORDING TO THE 12Z MORNING NKX SOUNDING...A 10 DEGREES C
TEMPERATURE INVERSION RESIDES ABOVE...WHICH OFTEN INDICATES SLOW
CLEARING...IF AT ALL...NEAR THE COAST. BUILDING CUMULUS TOWERS ARE
ALSO OBSERVED OVER THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF
HIGH DESERTS. CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED
NEAR THE NORTHERN SEA OF CORTEZ WILL BRING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY MOUNTAINS...AND THE HIGH DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO SHOW UP ON RADAR WITH GREATER COVERAGE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THE 13/1200Z NAM INDICATES 200-500 J/KG
OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN THIS AREA. SATELLITE DERIVED PW THIS
MORNING SHOWS VALUES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT
VORT MAX TO TRIGGER THE CONVECTION TODAY...EXPECT STORMS TO
CONTINUE TO FIRE UP OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
MOUNTAINS...THEN ELSEWHERE IN THE APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. THE 13/1200Z NAM AND 13/1900Z HRRR PROG ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
ACTIVITY WILL WANE AFTER DUSK WITH SURFACE HEATING NO LONGER ABLE
TO MAINTAIN THE CONVECTION. TONIGHT...MARINE LAYER STRATUS WITH
SIMILAR BASES AND TOPS AS LAST NIGHT...WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
INLAND VALLEYS AND INLAND EMPIRE. PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE WILL AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE FROM THE COAST TO AROUND 10 MILES INLAND.
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK...A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO EDGE IN FROM THE SOUTH. RISING 500 MB
HEIGHTS WILL BRING WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME NOTICEABLY WARMER INLAND...SOME 5 TO 10
DEGREES F ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY TUESDAY...WHILE
ONSHORE FLOW AND A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL HELP TO MODERATE
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST. NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL
BECOME THE NORM...BUT BECOMES MORE SHALLOW EACH DAY. FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...BOTH THE 13/1200Z GFS AND ECMWF MORE OR
LESS KEEP THE RIDGING PATTERN STAGNANT ACROSS THE WEST COAST. FOR
THIS REASON...THE WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH NOT MUCH
DAY TO DAY VARIATION.
&&
.AVIATION...
132000Z...COAST/VALLEYS...BKN-OVC STRATUS WITH BASES 1500-2000 FT
MSL...AND TOPS 2.5K FT MSL WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE FROM THE
EAST THROUGH 23Z. WITHIN 10-15 MILES OF THE COAST...THE STRATUS WILL
REMAIN BKN-OVC...AND THEN SPREAD BACK INLAND UP TO 30 MILES
THROUGH 06Z WITH BASES NEAR 1500 FT MSL AND TOPS NEAR 2500 FT.
THE CLOUD LAYER IS EXPECTED TO LOWER BY SUN MORNING WITH BASES 600-
1200 FEET MSL AND TOPS 1700-2100 FT MSL. EXPECT AREAS OF 3-5SM VIS
TO LOWER TO 1-3SM IN -DZ/BR AFTER 08Z. THE HIGHER COASTAL TERRAIN
ABOVE 1000 FT MSL WILL BE OBSCURED. ABOVE THE STRATUS LAYER THROUGH
05Z...SCT-LOCALLY BKN CLOUDS AOA 10K FT MSL.
MTNS/DESERTS...GENERALLY CLEAR WITH SCT CLOUDS AOA 8K FT MSL
AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH TONIGHT. THROUGH SUNSET...SCT-BKN
CU/TCU WITH ISOLATED TSRA OVER AND NEAR THE SAN BERNARDINO AND
RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...AND THE HIGH DESERTS OF SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY...WITH BASES 080-100 AND TOPS TO NEAR FL350. SMALL HAIL...
HEAVY RAIN...STG UDDFS...AND LLWS DUE TO GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER TSTMS THAT DEVELOP. THE SHOWERS/TSTMS
WILL DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET.
&&
.MARINE...
1 PM PDT...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...JT/JJT
AVIATION/MARINE...JAD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
817 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 809 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015
SO FAR TSTMS HAVE NOT DEVELOPED ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH IS
MOVING INTO THE FOOTHILLS. ANOTHER BOUNDARY/FNT IS MOVING QUICKLY
SOUTH FROM CHEYENNE AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. HRRR AND RAP HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE AS TO
WHERE TSTMS MAY DVLP THRU MIDNIGHT SO HAVE NO CONFIDENCE IN ANY OF
THEIR SOLUTIONS. MEANWHILE TSTMS CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
SERN ELBERT AND LINCOLN COUNTY WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD END BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 616 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/CDFNT WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE FOOTHILLS ALONG
WITH FAVORABLE THETA-E WHICH MAY ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS AND HEAVY
RAIN BY 03Z. IN ADDITION WITH SOME INCREASE IN WNW MID LVL FLOW
AROUND MIDNIGHT NR THE WY BORDER SVR THREAT COULD INCREASE AS WELL
WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS AREAS FM DENVER NORTH TO THE WY
BORDER WOULD BE MAIN FOCUS AREA. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH BUT WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THINGS CLOSELY THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON DEVELOPED ALONG A CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF AKRON TO THE NEBRASKA
BORDER. STORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW MOVING WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL. CLOSER TO THE FOOTHILLS...DRIER AIR MOVED INTO THE
REGION OUT OF WYOMING...WHICH IS STABILIZING THE AIRMASS ALONG THE
I-25/URBAN CORRIDOR. THE ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT IS HELPING DRIVE
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE...UNTIL OUTFLOW FROM THE
THUNDERSTORMS TURNS THINGS EASTERLY. EAST AND NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BRINGING MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
PLAINS. AFTER THE EVENING THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH...ADDITIONAL RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR. COOL AND MOIST CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE AIRMASS BECOMING UNSTABLE AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOWER AND MID 70S. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW UP TO 2000 J/KG OF CAPE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1 INCH. THE WIND PATTERN WILL
REMAIN WEAK...BUT THE SHEAR PROFILE WILL BE FAVORABLE ENOUGH FOR
AT LEAST SOME ORGANIZATION OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO STRONG CELLS.
HEATING WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY THE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...BUT AS THE TEMPERATURES WARM THE STORMS WILL GET
STRONGER. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL BE THE
FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STILL BE ONGOING MONDAY NIGHT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW PW`S AROUND AN INCH AND CAPES ABOVE 1000 J/KG. AS A
RESULT... SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN...HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE 80S ON TUESDAY AS
WARMER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. COULD SEE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE AREA...MOST NUMEROUS IN
THE MOUNTAINS. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE NAM
AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT DENVER...WITH THE NAM SHOWING CAPES
OVER 2000 J/KG AND NO CIN...WHILE THE GFS HAS CAPES UNDER 1000
J/KG AND QUITE A BIT OF CIN. THE GFS IS ALSO HINTING AT A POSSIBLE
DENVER CYCLONE IN THE VICINITY OF DENVER. I WOULD TEND TO FAVOR
THE GFS SOLUTION...WITH A FEW STRONGER TO SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE
CONVERGENCE OF THE DENVER CYCLONE MOST LIKELY TO THE EAST OF
DENVER.
ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHEASTERN COLORADO BRINGING
INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT
PLAINS...WITH HEAVY RAIN AND A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. FEWER
STORMS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG
STORMS.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A HOT AND DRY ON THE PLAINS AS A DOWNSLOPE FLOW
DEVELOPS ON THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS MAY BE THE ONLY DAY WHERE
WE SEE NO PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA. MOST AREAS ACROSS THE PLAINS
SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S. TEMPERATURES COOL BACK INTO THE
80S WITH A FEW MORE STORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE PASSAGE
OF A WEAK COOL FRONT. MODELS DIVERGE BY SUNDAY...WITH THE GFS
SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH DRY WEATHER OVER THE AREA. THE ECMWF HAS THE
RIDGE FURTHER TO THE WEST WITH A SOME PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE.&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015
ANOTHER BNDRY/FNT IS MOVING SOUTHWARD FM THE CHEYENNE RIDGE AND
MAY AFFECT DIA AROUND 04Z WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH. ITS
POSSIBLE TSTMS COULD DVLP BEHIND THIS BNDRY SO WILL LEAVE TEMPO
GROUP FO THE 04Z-06Z TIME PERIOD. OVERNIGHT THERE COULD STILL BE A
CHC OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A TSTM IF THE HRRR IS CORRECT.
OTHERWISE SHOULD SEE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS DVLP LATE TONIGHT INTO
MON MORNING
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 809 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015
DEW POINTS IN THE DENVER AREA HAVE DROPPED OFF AS DRY AIR MOVED
DOWN THE FRONT RANGE OUT OF WYOMING. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN WELL EAST OF DENVER. LATER THIS
EVENING...AS OUTFLOW FROM THE NORTHEAST COLORADO THUNDERSTORMS
MOVES INTO THE URBAN CORRIDOR...HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL INCREASE
AGAIN AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
BE CONTINUING OVERNIGHT...KEEPING MOISTURE IN THE DENVER AREA.
RAIN SHOWERS AND CEILINGS IN MVFR CATEGORY ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BEFORE SUNRISE...IMPACTING OPERATIONS DURING THE MORNING PERIOD OF
HIGH TRAFFIC. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD LAST MOST OF THE DAY
WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015
ALL THE RAIN UP TO THIS POINT HAS BEEN ON THE EASTERN
PLAINS...ALLOWING THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER FROM DENVER TO GREELEY
TO CONTINUE ITS SLOW RECESSION. IN THE GREELEY AREA...THE FLOOD
CREST MOVED THROUGH KERSEY THIS MORNING AND WILL BE WORKING ITS
WAY TO MORGAN COUNTY THROUGH MONDAY. FLOOD WARNINGS ON THE SOUTH
PLATTE WILL REMAIN AS THEY ARE THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE RIVER IS
STILL ABOVE FLOOD STAGE IN THE GREELEY AREA. RAINFALL TOMORROW IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND SHOULD INITIALLY HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON
RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RPK
SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...RPK
HYDROLOGY...DANKERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
953 AM MDT SAT JUN 13 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 AM MDT SAT JUN 13 2015
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...EXCEPT TO TRIM BACK
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THE PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SLIGHTLY. A MUCH DRIER AND WARMER AIRMASS HAS MOVED OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD DROP TO
THE LOWER 40S DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXES OUT. LOWER DEW POINTS WILL MEAN LESS AVAILABLE POTENTIAL
ENERGY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS...DUE TO ADDITIONAL
HEATING OF THE ELEVATED TERRAIN. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND
RAP HAVE BEEN BACKING UP THIS GENERAL IDEA. SKIES SHOULD RETURN TO
A MOSTLY CLEAR STATE BY LATE THIS EVENING. THE MORNING RAOB AT
KDEN INDICATED THAT THE AFTERNOON HIGH COULD BE IN THE LOWER
80S...SO NO CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WERE MADE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT SAT JUN 13 2015
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBSERVATION POINTS SHOWING SOME LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING MAINLY OVER LINCOLN COUNTY AND
FURTHER NORTH ACROSS LOGAN...WELD AND MORGAN COUNTIES. WILL ADJUST
CLOUD COVER AND EXPAND THE PATCHY FOG A BIT FURTHER WEST THROUGH
MID MORNING HOURS WITH CLEAR SKIES ABOVE.
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT OVER WYOMING AND NORTHERN COLORADO SLOWLY
PUSHING SOUTH WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AND WARMER AIRMASS. HOWEVER
LINGERING LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO...WEAK ASCENT ALONG
WITH HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS WILL STILL ABLE TO DRIFT BACK INTO
CENTRAL COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL DRIFT
OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS WITH MAINLY BRIEF RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE SHOWERS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT SAT JUN 13 2015
FOR SUNDAY UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES THE NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE CONUS WITH A WEAK TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER COLORADO THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THERE
IS DECENT MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE REGION THAT WILL AID IN
BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO NE COLORADO. UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS FOR SUNDAY SHOW
RELATIVELY HIGH PW VALUES WITH LIGHT FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS AND
DECENT CAPE FOR INCREASED WIND GUSTS. STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING
THAT COULD BRING A FLOODING CONCERN TO ALREADY FLOODED AREAS.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEING A
BACKDOOR FRONT INTO EASTERN COLORADO THAT WILL CARRY CONVECTION
INTO MONDAY. RESURGENCE OF MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
ALONG WITH MODERATE BKN SHEAR MAGNITUDES AND CAPE VALUES ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS ESPECIALLY COULD BRING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW RETURNS AS THE
TROUGH DROPS SOUTH AND EAST OVER TX. STRONGER WESTERLIES WILL
DOMINATE THE SWITCH MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL HELP TO BRING IN
DRIER AIR AND DECREASE MOISTURE BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. STORMS
WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED AND TERRAIN DRIVEN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH MID TO UPPER 80S
EXPECTED BY MID WEEK AND POSSIBLE LOW 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 953 AM MDT SAT JUN 13 2015
THERE MAY BE A FEW HOURS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN PARTS
OF THE DENVER METRO AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...BUT NO OTHER AVIATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. SHOWERS WILL
PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS AND A LITTLE BIT OF
RAIN...BUT NOT MUCH ELSE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT SAT JUN 13 2015
THE SOUTH PLATTE AT HENDERSON IS ALMOST OUT OF ACTION STAGE AS IT
CONTINUES TO FALL AND WILL CANCEL THE FLOOD WARNING THERE.
THE CACHE LA POUDRE THROUGH WELD COUNTY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO RISE
SLIGHTLY BUT REMAIN IN THE MINOR FLOOD CATEGORY.
SOME OTHER STREAMS ALSO RUNNING HIGH INCLUDE THE COLORADO RIVER
NEAR GRANBY AND NORTH FORK OF THE BIG THOMPSON DUE TO SNOWMELT AND
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL RUNOFF...ADVISORIES FOR THOSE LOCATIONS.
RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEKEND WITH PREVIOUS RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALTHOUGH DECREASED IN
COVERAGE AND RAINFALL AMOUNT POTENTIAL...COULD STILL CONTRIBUTE TO
HIGHER FLOWS.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DANKERS
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...DANKERS
HYDROLOGY...ENTREKIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1138 PM MDT FRI JUN 12 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 810 PM MDT FRI JUN 12 2015
UPDATED MOST AREAS TO LOWER OR ELIMINATE POPS FOR THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...AS CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR SUGGEST MOST
TSRA LIMITED TO MAINLY SOUTHERN SANGRES/EASTERN SAN JUANS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM MDT FRI JUN 12 2015
UPPER TROF PULLING AWAY TO THE EAST WITH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS STILL EXPERIENCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN AREA OF WRAP AROUND. AROUND THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA...LINGERING MOISTURE WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 40S AND LOWER
50S HAS LED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. MLCAPES OFF SPC MESO ANALYSIS ARE AROUND 500
J/KG...AND CONVECTION HAS BEEN FAIRLY WEAK SO FAR...THOUGH CERTAINLY
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH CREEKS AND
STREAMS RUNNING HIGH IN THE MOUNTAINS...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
FLASH FLOOD THREAT SHOULD ANY STRONGER CELLS DEVELOP OUT THAT WAY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE EARLIER HIGH
RES MODELS WERE SUGGESTING THIS POTENTIAL. LATER RUNS OF THE HRRR
SEEM TO BE BACKING OFF ON THIS POSSIBILITY. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH FOR MOST AREAS LATER THIS EVENING.
ON SATURDAY...ELONGATED TROF AXIS WILL STILL BE OVER THE AREA WITH
ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST PLAINS DRY OUT WITH LEE
TROFING DROPPING SFC DEW POINTS INTO THE 40S ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR
WHICH CONSEQUENTIALLY KEEPS CAPE VALUES RELATIVELY LOW. WITH LIGHT
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA...DEEP LAYER SHEARS WILL BE ON THE WEAK
SIDE AS WELL...SO THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO REMAIN
WELL OFF TO OUR SOUTH. MOUNTAINS HOWEVER WILL SEE ANOTHER SHOT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON...AND WITH LIGHT FLOW ALOFT...STORMS
WILL BE SLOW MOVING. EVEN THOUGH THESE STORMS SHOULD BE PRETTY HIT
OR MISS...GIVEN THE HIGH FLOWS IN CREEKS AND STREAMS IN THE
MOUNTAINS...THERE ISN`T MUCH ROOM IN THE CHANNELS TO ACCOMMODATE
ADDITIONAL WATER FROM RAINFALL...SO FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
EXTENDED THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. SNOW
MELT SHOULD CONTINUE IN FULL FORCE WITH NIGHT TIME LOWS STAYING
ABOVE FREEZING IN THE HIGH COUNTRY SO RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
HIGH. -KT
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM MDT FRI JUN 12 2015
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...GENERALLY WEAK WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES ACROSS THE STATE WITH A WEAK BAGGY TROUGH SLOWLY
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE SLOWLY DECREASES ACROSS THE
AREA...LEADING TO DAILY CHANCES OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER AND
NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH THE MOISTURE IN PLACE AND THE EXPECTED
SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS...MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
REMAIN A CONCERN. THIS...ALONG WITH THE CONTINUED MELTING OF THE
HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW PACK...WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES...WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MAINLY 50S AND 60S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS LOOKS TO SEND A BACKDOOR FRONT
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH RESURGENCE OF MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW LEADING TO BETTER CHANCES OF STORMS ACROSS THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO...MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS ON MONDAY.
TUESDAY-FRIDAY...A DRYING TREND COULD BE IN THE OFFING INTO THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK...AS MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST A SLOW DRYING OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND LEAD TO MORE ISOLATED...DIURNALLY AND TERRAIN
DRIVEN CONVECTION AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM MDT FRI JUN 12 2015
AREA OF IFR STRATUS HAS FORMED OVER EASTERN EL PASO COUNTY AS OF
05Z...STRETCHING FROM NEAR KABH NORTHEAST TO KLIC. ALSO SOME MVFR
STRATUS FORMING ALONG THE KS BORDER AS WELL. MODELS ALL KEEP LOWER
CLOUDS EAST OF KCOS AND KPUB OVERNIGHT...AS DRIER AIR ALOFT WORKS
TOWARD THE SURFACE BEHIND WEAK LEE TROUGH JUST EAST OF I-25. WILL
KEEP BOTH SITES VFR FOR NOW...BUT LOWER CIGS COULD GET VERY CLOSE
TO KCOS 08Z-12Z. ON SAT...VFR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE DAY WITH
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER ABOUT 18Z.
HAVE INCLUDED VCTS MENTION FOR THE AFTERNOON AT KALS...AND WILL
INSERT VCTS INTO THE KCOS TAF AROUND 00Z...AS TSRA DRIFT EASTWARD
OFF THE MOUNTAINS. DOUBT STORMS WILL MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH OFF OF
HIGHER TERRAIN TO REACH KPUB...THOUGH SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS MAY
BE POSSIBLE 23Z-03Z.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 324 PM MDT FRI JUN 12 2015
RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH DUE TO SNOW MELT AND OCCASIONAL
ADDITION OF RAINFALL ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND INTO THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS. HAVE EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO
SATURDAY FOR THE MTS/INTERIOR VALLEYS...AS ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS COULD ADD MORE WATER TO AN ALREADY TAXED SYSTEM.
WATER IS STILL OUT OF ITS BANKS ON THE SOUTH ARKANSAS RIVER
BETWEEN PONCHA PASS AND SALIDA...AND HAVE EXTENDED THE FLOOD
WARNING FOR THIS AREA THROUGH 230 PM SUNDAY...THOUGH THIS MAY HAVE
TO BE EXTENDED AGAIN UNTIL PEAK FLOWS ARE PAST. OTHER RIVERS OF
CONCERN INCLUDE COTTONWOOD CREEK...NORTH COTTONWOOD CREEK...CHALK
CREEK IN CHAFFEE COUNTY....AS WELL AS CRESTONE CREEK...SAGUACHE
CREEK...CONEJOS CREEK...KERBER CREEK ALONG THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
EDGES. SUSPECT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL HAVE TO BE EXTENDED
UNTIL PEAK FLOWS FROM SNOW MELT PASS. ITS POSSIBLE IT MAY NEED TO
BE CONVERTED TO A FLOOD WATCH ONCE RAINFALL IS NO LONGER EXPECTED
TO BE AN ISSUE...BUT AS LONG AS RAIN IS IN THE FORECAST...MAY JUST
LEAVE THE WATCH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO KEEP THE MESSAGE CONSISTENT.
RAINFALL ESTIMATES FROM YESTERDAY BASED OFF RADAR SUGGEST 2-3 INCHES
OF RAIN FELL SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER ACROSS NORTHERN LAS ANIMAS
AND BACA COUNTIES AMONG OTHER PLACES. THIS WATER WILL BE DRAINING
INTO THE ARKANSAS RIVER WHICH IS ALSO RUNNING HIGH...AND ITS
POSSIBLE THAT FORECAST FLOOD STAGES WILL CHANGE AS THIS WATER IS
ROUTED DOWNSTREAM. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR COZ058>075-078.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PETERSEN
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...PETERSEN
HYDROLOGY...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1031 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AS
WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THE RAIN WILL COME DOWN MODERATE
TO HEAVY AT TIMES. ONCE AGAIN THE ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SO THE THREAT FOR STORMS
WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. A COLD FRONT
IS THEN EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY TRIGGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS BOUNDARY A LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE
USHERED INTO THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1031 PM EDT...HEAVIEST AXIS OF RAINFALL HAS REMAINED WEST
OF THE REGION OVER CENTRAL NY...ASSOCIATED WITH THE BEST MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY. SFC WARM FRONT STILL IS TRYING TO MAKE IT INTO
OUR AREA...BUT DEWPOINTS REMAIN LOW...MAINLY IN THE 50S...OVER
MUCH OF OUR AREA...SHOWING THE WARM FRONT IS HAVING A TOUGH TIME
MAKING IT THROUGH.
WITH A RATHER STABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE...ANY THUNDER HAS BEEN
LOCATED WELL SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION. SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT...SO WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW
FOR A CHC OF THUNDER FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE LATEST 01Z 3KM HRRR SHOWS RAINFALL SHOULD GRADUALLY EXPAND IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER OUR AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS PWATS
SURGE OVER 1.50 INCHES ACORSS OUR AREA THANKS TO THE PERSISTENT
S-SW FLOW ALOFT AND THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS START TO SHIFT
TOWARDS OUR REGION. WITH THIS EXPECTED RAINFALL...WE ARE
ANTICIPATING A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE
AND LOW LYING AREAS MAY OCCUR. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING CAN NOT BE
RULE OUT ESPECIALLY OVER AN URBANIZED LOCATION. NO FLASH FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME SINCE DO NOT HAVE THE
CONFIDENCE FOR A WIDER FLASH FLOOD THREAT...HOWEVER...WILL
CONTINUE TO EVALUATE TRENDS OVERNIGHT...AND A SHORT FUSED WATCH
FOR A PORTION OF THE REGION IS POSSIBLE IF RAINFALL APPEARS TO
FOCUS ON ONE PARTICULAR AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS THE REGION BUT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE
THROUGH. THE THREAT FOR THE MODERATE TO HEAVY WILL TAPER OFF
DURING THE MORNING...HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. MODERATE SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY SO GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER
STORMS. IT WILL BE RATHER COOL MONDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE LOWER 60S TO MID 70S DUE THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
THE STORMS.
EXPECTING A LULL IN ACTIVITY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION...HOWEVER A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
SWEEP ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. IT WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM
WITH HIGHS IN MID 70S TO LOWER 80S TUESDAY AND PWATS WILL STILL BE
RATHER HIGH OVER 1.5 INCHES. IN ADDITION...MODERATE SHEAR WILL BE
PRESENT SO SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER AS THE LOCAL AREA IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. HAVE THREAT
HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED
INTO THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY INCLEMENT WEATHER WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...SHOULD BE DRY. HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY
GETS QUICKLY DISPLACED BY A WARM FRONT AND SHOWERS FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY TWO COLD FRONTS THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY... MARKING THE START OF A SHORT DRY REPRIEVE. A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES AGAIN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY...BRINGING MORE SHOWERS AND
HUMIDITY.
WEDNESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER
80S...COOLING TO THE AROUND 70 TO UPPER 70S RANGE THURSDAY...AND
SLOWLY MODERATING INTO THE MID 70S TO MID 80S RANGE BY SUNDAY. LOWS
FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE ANYWHERE FROM
THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH FRIDAY NIGHT BEING COOLEST.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR...BUT WILL BE LOWERING TO MVFR
AT TIMES LATER THIS EVENING DUE TO SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE REGION.
SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE HEAVIER AFTER 06Z...SO WILL EXPECT MAINLY
IFR CONDITIONS FOR LATE TONIGHT WITHIN THESE HEAVIER SHOWERS. LTG
LOOKS RATHER LIMITED AT THIS TIME...SO NOT ENOUGH EXPECTED
COVERAGE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME...BUT CAN/T TOTALLY
RULE OUT A RUMBLE SOMEWHERE ONE OF THAT TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS WILL BECOME SE...BUT ONLY AROUND 5 KTS OR SO.
SHOWERS WILL START TO TAPER OFF ON MONDAY MORNING...ALLOWING FOR
MVFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT FROM A
S-SE DIRECTION AT 5-10 KTS. SHOWERS SHOULD END BY THE EARLY AFTN
HOURS...BUT LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY KEEP MVFR CLOUDS
AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA..TSRA
EARLY IN THE EVENING.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AS
WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THE RAIN WILL COME DOWN MODERATE
TO HEAVY AT TIMES. ONCE AGAIN THE ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SO THE THREAT FOR STORMS
WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. A COLD FRONT
IS THEN EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY TRIGGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS BOUNDARY A LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE
USHERED INTO THE REGION. MORE WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A WARM FRONT WILL IMPACT
THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY. WITH PWAT VALUES WILL BE RISING
TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES SO MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AT
TIMES. ANTICIPATING A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS MAY OCCUR. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
CAN NOT BE RULE OUT ESPECIALLY OVER AN URBANIZED LOCATION. NO
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME SINCE DO NOT HAVE
THE CONFIDENCE FOR A WIDER FLASH FLOOD THREAT. CONTINUE TO HAVE
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING THREAT HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND ADDED MENTION OF ISOLATED FLASH
FLOOD.
THE THREAT WILL CONTINUE THREAT FOR CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY HOWEVER IT WILL BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DAY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IMPACTS THE REGION.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
736 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AS
WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THE RAIN WILL COME DOWN MODERATE
TO HEAVY AT TIMES. ONCE AGAIN THE ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SO THE THREAT FOR STORMS
WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. A COLD FRONT
IS THEN EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY TRIGGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS BOUNDARY A LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE
USHERED INTO THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 736 PM EDT...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. THE
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STRETCHES ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND
TOWARDS OUR AREA. ONCE AGAIN HAVE A WEAK SURFACE WAVE AND MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING REGION WHICH WILL ENHANCE
ACTIVITY. SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY LIMITED HOWEVER THERE
WILL BE ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
LATEST MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS BATCHES OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM CENTRAL NY. THIS ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED
SOMEWHAT FROM WHAT IT WAS EARLIER THANKS TO MOVING INTO A MORE
STABLE ENVIRONMENT. ALTHOUGH THIS ACTIVITY PRODUCED FLASH FLOODING
OVER WESTERN NY AND FINGER LAKES...IT DOESN/T APPEAR TO HAVE THE
SAME INTENSITY AS IT REACHES OUR AREA. LTG HAS DIMINISHED WITH
THIS ACTIVITY AS WELL...AND THE LATEST LTG DATA IS ONLY SHOWING
LTG ACTIVITY OVER PA AND FAR WESTERN NY.
THE LATEST 3KM HRRR GUIDANCES SUGGESTS THAT THIS INITIAL BATCH
WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE...BUT MORE HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT...AS PWATS RISE TO 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES OVER
THE AREA THANKS TO THE PERSISTENT S-SW FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT.
AS OF RIGHT NOW...ANTICIPATING A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. MINOR
FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS MAY OCCUR. ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING CAN NOT BE RULE OUT ESPECIALLY OVER AN URBANIZED
LOCATION. NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME SINCE
DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE FOR A WIDER FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS THE REGION BUT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE
THROUGH. THE THREAT FOR THE MODERATE TO HEAVY WILL TAPER OFF
DURING THE MORNING...HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. MODERATE SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY SO GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER
STORMS. IT WILL BE RATHER COOL MONDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE LOWER 60S TO MID 70S DUE THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
THE STORMS.
EXPECTING A LULL IN ACTIVITY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION...HOWEVER A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
SWEEP ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. IT WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM
WITH HIGHS IN MID 70S TO LOWER 80S TUESDAY AND PWATS WILL STILL BE
RATHER HIGH OVER 1.5 INCHES. IN ADDITION...MODERATE SHEAR WILL BE
PRESENT SO SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER AS THE LOCAL AREA IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. HAVE THREAT
HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED
INTO THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY INCLEMENT WEATHER WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...SHOULD BE DRY. HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY
GETS QUICKLY DISPLACED BY A WARM FRONT AND SHOWERS FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY TWO COLD FRONTS THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY... MARKING THE START OF A SHORT DRY REPRIEVE. A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES AGAIN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY...BRINGING MORE SHOWERS AND
HUMIDITY.
WEDNESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER
80S...COOLING TO THE AROUND 70 TO UPPER 70S RANGE THURSDAY...AND
SLOWLY MODERATING INTO THE MID 70S TO MID 80S RANGE BY SUNDAY. LOWS
FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE ANYWHERE FROM
THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH FRIDAY NIGHT BEING COOLEST.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR...BUT WILL BE LOWERING TO MVFR
AT TIMES LATER THIS EVENING DUE TO SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE REGION.
SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE HEAVIER AFTER 06Z...SO WILL EXPECT MAINLY
IFR CONDITIONS FOR LATE TONIGHT WITHIN THESE HEAVIER SHOWERS. LTG
LOOKS RATHER LIMITED AT THIS TIME...SO NOT ENOUGH EXPECTED
COVERAGE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME...BUT CAN/T TOTALLY
RULE OUT A RUMBLE SOMEWHERE ONE OF THAT TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS WILL BECOME SE...BUT ONLY AROUND 5 KTS OR SO.
SHOWERS WILL START TO TAPER OFF ON MONDAY MORNING...ALLOWING FOR
MVFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT FROM A
S-SE DIRECTION AT 5-10 KTS. SHOWERS SHOULD END BY THE EARLY AFTN
HOURS...BUT LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY KEEP MVFR CLOUDS
AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA..TSRA
EARLY IN THE EVENING.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AS
WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THE RAIN WILL COME DOWN MODERATE
TO HEAVY AT TIMES. ONCE AGAIN THE ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SO THE THREAT FOR STORMS
WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. A COLD FRONT
IS THEN EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY TRIGGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS BOUNDARY A LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE
USHERED INTO THE REGION. MORE WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A WARM FRONT WILL IMPACT
THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY. WITH PWAT VALUES WILL BE RISING
TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES SO MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AT
TIMES. ANTICIPATING A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS MAY OCCUR. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
CAN NOT BE RULE OUT ESPECIALLY OVER AN URBANIZED LOCATION. NO
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME SINCE DO NOT HAVE
THE CONFIDENCE FOR A WIDER FLASH FLOOD THREAT. CONTINUE TO HAVE
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING THREAT HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND ADDED MENTION OF ISOLATED FLASH
FLOOD.
THE THREAT WILL CONTINUE THREAT FOR CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY HOWEVER IT WILL BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DAY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IMPACTS THE REGION.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
626 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE WATERS OFF THE DELMARVA COAST.
THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD BEFORE STALLING ON
SUNDAY. IT IS THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE NORTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ANTICIPATED TO APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY AND IT IS FORECAST TO STALL AND
MEANDER ACROSS OR NEAR OUR REGION FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH LATE-DAY AND THIS EVENING, A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY EDGE SOUTHWARD PASSING THROUGH THE DELMARVA REGION. IN
ADDITION, A SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL BE PASSING NEAR OR OVER PORTIONS
OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN PARTS OF OUR CWA, BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT. WITH THESE FEATURES IN MIND AND WITH AMPLE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING THROUGH THE DELMARVA AHEAD OF THE
SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT, SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHWR/T-STORM
ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE DELMARVA AND
PERHAPS FAR SOUTHERN NJ. WE HAVE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR
THIS THROUGH THIS EVENING, BEFORE TRENDING BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE
AND ENDING SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SOME MID-LEVEL RIDGING EDGES
OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES THEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
HAVE LOWERED POPS IN THE REAL NEAR TERM AND WILL MONITOR AFTER
THAT. HRRR IS NOT VERY OPTIMISTIC ON POPS THRU THIS EVENING SO MAY
BE ABLE TO FURTHER LOWER POPS ON THE NEXT UPDATE.
WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A BIT MORE
COMFORTABLE THAN RECENT NIGHTS, ALONG WITH THE LESS HUMID AIR MASS SETTLING
DOWN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE TOOK A BLEND OF MET/MAV
GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY AND EXPECT LOWS TO MAINLY RANGE FROM THE
LOW 60S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
SUNDAY, WITH RIDGING ALOFT EXTENDING OVER OUR REGION. HOWEVER, THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL HAVE STALLED TO OUR SOUTH AND
WEST, MOST LIKELY EXTENDING FROM AROUND THE VIRGINIA TIDEWATER
NORTHWESTWARD BACK THROUGH CENTRAL PA. THIS NEARBY BOUNDARY AND A
DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE OVER OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON MAY
TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY FOR OUR
WESTERN ZONES. WE GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS FROM CHANCE TO LIKELY
DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING FOR THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA, WITH SOME LOWER POPS ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE LATE-DAY
PERIOD. ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS, ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP AND
MOVE INTO THE AREA WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS,
AS PWATS WILL BE APPROACHING 2.0 INCHES LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION.
MET/MAV GUIDANCE WITH A FEW ADJUSTMENTS WAS PRIMARILY USED FOR
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES, AND WE ANTICIPATE HIGHS TO MAINLY BE IN THE
80S FOR THE FORECAST AREA, WITH SOME COOLER 70S AT THE COAST AND
PERHAPS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MEAN LOCATION OF THE POLAR JET IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN STATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
AS A RESULT, THE MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT ZONAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT PASSED THROUGH MOST OF OUR REGION THIS
MORNING SHOULD RETURN NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRAVELING IN THE MID LEVEL
FLOW AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD PROVIDE TRIGGERING MECHANISMS
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THAT PERIOD OF TIME. GULF
MOISTURE RIDING AROUND THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES IS
ANTICIPATED TO BE DRAWN INTO OUR REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. AS A
RESULT, ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
ONCE THE INITIAL FRONT LIFTS AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST FROM LATE
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO DROP
TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. THE BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OVER OR NEAR OUR REGION FOR THE PERIOD FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO THE ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW. AS A
RESULT, IT SHOULD BE A RATHER UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE PEAK DIURNAL
PERIOD FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN HIGH, SO HEAVY
DOWNPOURS REMAIN POSSIBLE.
IT IS ONE OF THOSE CASES WHEN THE FORECAST MAKES IT APPEAR AS
THOUGH THE WEEK WILL BE A WASHOUT WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
MENTIONED NEARLY EVERY DAY. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE
OF THE PRECIPITATION MOST OF THE PERIOD, ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE RAIN-FREE.
WE HAVE LOWERED THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES AND THE CLOUD
COVER FOR THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THERE
MAY BE A SLIGHT PUSH OF DRY AIR FOLLOWING THE INITIAL ARRIVAL THE
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND IT SHOULD AFFECT OUR REGION FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION. WE WILL INDICATE
ANOTHER DECREASE IN THE CLOUD COVER AND WE WILL LOWER THE CHANCE
OF RAIN AS WE GET INTO NEXT WEEKEND THOUGH THE CONFIDENCE IN SOME
DRYING AT THAT TIME IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH DUE TO THE NATURE OF
THE EXPECTED WEATHER PATTERN.
TEMPERATURES WILL FLUCTUATE LITTLE FROM DAY TO DAY IN THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN
THE 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO THE
LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
LATE DAY AND TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS. NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 8 TO 12 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KNOTS BY
THIS EVENING, BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST OF KPHL/KILG/KMIV, ESPECIALLY LATE-DAY AND THIS
EVENING.
SUNDAY...CONTINUED MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. LOWER CONFIDENCE THAT A
FEW SITES COULD FALL BELOW 6SM VISIBILITY AROUND DAYBREAK, AND
THIS WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL START
LIGHT AND VARIABLE, BECOMING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BETWEEN 5 TO 8
KNOTS FROM ABOUT MID-MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOME SCATTERED
SHWRS/T- STORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO EVENING, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
WESTERN SITES, BUT THIS IS LOWER CONFIDENCE AND BEYOND THE TAF
PERIOD AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY.
THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. CONDITIONS SHOULD VARY BETWEEN VFR
AND MVFR WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS,
HAZE AND FOG.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS MAY
LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS DUE TO LOW
CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG.
&&
.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THE AREA
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 10
TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FEET AND A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
A DEVELOPING LONG PERIOD EAST TO SOUTHEAST SWELL ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY MAY RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THAT TIME.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/KLINE
MARINE...IOVINO/KLINE
RIP CURRENTS...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1003 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND THEN NEW
JERSEY TODAY PUSHING JUST SOUTH OF THE DELMARVA BY SUNDAY MORNING.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS TO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY WITH THE FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH RETURNING NORTHEASTWARD AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SLIDE TO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WARM
FRONT MOVES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES LATE THIS COMING WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOT MANY ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO THE FCST AT THIS TIME, BUT WE DID
USE THE LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE TO MAKE SOME TWEAKS TO HOURLY
TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK FOR TODAY AFTER A CHECK OF THIS
MORNINGS REGIONAL SOUNDINGS AND WITH THE INCOMING DRIER AIR
BEHIND THE SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT EDGING SOUTH THROUGH
NORTH/CENTRAL NJ AND EAST-CENTRAL PA AT MID/LATE MORNING.
OTHERWISE, THE TIMING OF SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE DELMARVA WITH SOME CHANCE POPS WAS
MAINTAINED BASED ON SUPPORT FROM HRRR AND RAP GUIDANCE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE SHORTWAVE THAT PRODUCED THE STRONGER
STORMS FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST WITH WEAK
RIDGING BEGINNING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. WE ARE EXPECTING A
MOSTLY DRY TODAY, OUTSIDE OF THE DELMARVA, WITH DRIER AIR PUSHING
IN ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE BEHIND A WEAKENING COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS MORNING. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTINESS JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT BUT AS THE RIDGING MOVES IN LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON WE LOSE THE DEEPER MIXING AND THE GUSTS SHUT OFF.
SOME OF THE HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
DIVING DOWN THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE HEADING OFFSHORE OVER THE DELMARVA THIS EVENING. THIS IS
WHERE WE CONFINE OUR CHANCE POPS TODAY...MOSTLY THE DELMARVA REGION
AS BETTER MOISTURE POOLING IS EXPECTED WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE LIMPING COLD FRONT.
AS FOR HIGHS TODAY, WE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEAK OUT A 90F IN AND AROUND
THE METRO AREA AND POINTS SOUTH. THE WARMEST LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
GET SHUNTED OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING LEAVING US WITH 14-16C
AT 850MB THIS AFTERNOON. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, WE LOSE THE DEEPER
MIXING TODAY SO WE ARE NOT EXPECTING TO WARM TO THAT LEVEL. OUR
DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE A LOT MORE COMFORTABLE THAN DAYS PAST, EXCEPT
FOR THE MOISTURE POOLING IN THE DELMARVA. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
ACTUALLY FEEL SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE AMBIENT AIR TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON...UPPER-80S...LOW-90S IN THE DELMARVA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY DROPS OFF WITH RIDGING CRESTING OVERHEAD. THE
WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST FOR A TIME BEFORE
GOING LIGHT VARIABLE/CALM IN A LOT OF PLACES. OVERNIGHT LOW IN THE
MID TO UPPER-60S WILL BRING A REFRESHING FEEL THAN IN DAYS PAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500MB: A STAUNCH AND NEARLY STATIONARY RIDGE OF RATHER WARM HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR SOUTH CAROLINA THIS WEEK WITH A
VIGOROUS BAND OF WESTERLIES ALONG THE CANADIAN - UNITED STATES
BORDER. A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE DEPARTING TEXAS DURING MID WEEK MAY
BRIEFLY FLATTEN THE RIDGE AS IT ATTEMPTS TO MOVES ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES LATE THIS WEEK.
THIS WARMER THAN NORMAL PATTERN FOR MID JUNE OVER OUR AREA (1 TO 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS -SD) WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES: 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT
THIS FORECAST PERIOD (AT LEAST 1 SD) WITH 1000MB TEMPS GENERALLY 2
SD ABOVE NORMAL. CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES WILL BE AT LEAST 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH POSSIBLE 10 DEGREE ABOVE
NORMAL DEPARTURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. EVEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OF
THIS COMING WEEK COULD AVERAGE NEAR 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THOUGH
PSN OF THE QSTRY FRONT WILL BE A LARGE FACTOR.
FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, A 50 50 BLEND 00Z/13 GFS/NAM
MOS GUIDANCE SUNDAY - MONDAY, 00Z/13 MEX MOS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY,
THEN THE 0521Z/13 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR
POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT-SKY-WIND FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT
SATURDAY.
THE DAILIES BELOW...
SUNDAY...SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID WITH THE NORTHEAST FLANK
OF ANY CONVECTION CONCENTRATED NEAR CHESAPEAKE BAY AND POSSIBLY UP
TO KRDG. LIGHT SOUTH WIND MAY GUST 15 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERSPREAD THE AREA. SREF PWAT
UP TO 2 INCHES BY MONDAY MORNING. COULD BE ISSUING HAZARD
PRODUCTS, INCLUDING FLOOD ADVISORIES AND SPS`S BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY.
MONDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS AND TSTMS...ESPECIALLY E PA AND
NJ. SEVERE POTENTIAL IN WAA. ML CAPE 1400J! THATS MORE ML CAPE THAN
WHAT WAS AVBL FOR THE BERKS COUNTY LEHIGH VALLEY NOTABLE MICROBURSTS
FROM LATE FRIDAY JUNE 12. SOUTHWEST WIND POSSIBLY GUSTY TO 25 MPH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. PWAT NEAR 2.1 INCHES. THIS SHOULD BE QUITE
AN ACTIVE DAY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON-EVENING COLD FRONTAL TSTMS
AND MAINLY SOUTH PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HOT AND HUMID.
0-6KM PLENTY OF 35KT SHEAR BUT THE QUESTION...HOW MUCH CONVECTION?
STILL 1200+J ML CAPE. WEST WIND GUST 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON
THEN SHIFT NORTHWEST AT OR BY NIGHT. PWAT STILL NEAR 1.9 INCHES.
A POTENT DAY WITH STILL POTENTIAL FOR SVR STORMS THOUGH THAT MAY
BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA DEPENDENT ON
THE TIMING OF THE CFP.
WEDNESDAY...DRY AND NICER...A BIT LESS HUMID AND FEW DEGREES COOLER.
LIGHT WIND WITH COOLING COASTAL SEABREEZES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS RETURN IN WAA.
THURSDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION EPISODE OF HEAVY CONVECTION WITH
THE WARM FRONT THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY WITH AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT LATE NEXT FRIDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES ON PSN OF THE QSTRY
FRONT BUT THIS COULD BE A POTENT WEATHER DAY IN OUR AREA IF THE
QSTRY FRONT BISECTS OUR AREA OR IS JUST NORTH. IF THE COOLER
ECMWF IS CORRECT THEN THE SVR RISK IS DEPRESSED. STILL ROOM FOR
MODEL CHANGES. MLCAPE NEAR 1000 J DELMARVA AND PLENTY OF SHEAR...
50 KT AT 500MB!
FRIDAY...CONSIDERABLE MODEL UNCERTAINTY SO NOT SURE IF THE GFS CFP
AND DRY IS CORRECT OR CONVECTION REMAINS AS PER THE ECMWF?
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REST OF THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA AND THE WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AND
BECOME GUSTY FOR A FEW HOURS. WE SHOULD LOSE THE GUSTS BY LATE
MORNING TO MIDDAY.
THIS AFTERNOON...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10-12 KNOTS VEERING
MORE TOWARDS THE NORTH BY THE EVENING HOURS. POSSIBLE SHOWERS
SOUTH AND WEST OF PHL/ILG. POSSIBLE SEABREEZE AT ACY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON, THOUGH IT MAY STAY JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINAL.
TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TOWARDS THE EAST-SOUTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER A SPRAWLING
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR. LIGHT SOUTH WIND MAY GUST 15 KT MID-LATE AFTN.
SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS/POSSIBLE TSTMS. IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE LATE?
MONDAY...OCNL MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN SHOWERS/TSTMS. SW WIND MAY GUST
20-25 KT.
TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR BUT LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.
WESTERLY WINDS MAY GUST 20 KT TUESDAY SHIFTING NORTHWEST IN THE
EVENING.
WEDNESDAY...VFR DURING THE DAY MAY DETERIORATE AT NIGHT. LIGHT
WIND WITH AFTERNOON COASTAL SEA BREEZES.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY - TONIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. A
FEW NORTHWESTERLY GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS
MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDING. COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIMP THROUGH
THIS MORNING AND THE WINDS WILL VEER TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BY
THIS EVENING. POSSIBLE SEABREEZE CIRCULATION NEARSHORE AND IN THE
MOUTH OF THE BAY BY LATER THIS EVENING. EXPECTING A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW TO COMMENCE LATE TONIGHT. SEAS REMAIN AROUND 3 FEET.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NO OBVIOUS MARINE ADVISORY HEADLINES AT
THIS TIME. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THRU THE PERIOD. SCT TSTMS WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS MON THRU TUE.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
THE RIP CURRENT RISK FOR TODAY APPEARS TO BE LOW. HOWEVER, WITH
AN UNDERLYING 12 SEC SWELL, WILL HAVE TO CHECK WITH OBSERVERS
THIS MORNING, AS THEIR INFORMATION COULD LEAD US TO RAISE THE RIP
CURRENT RISK CATEGORY.
FOR ULTIMATE SAFETY...ALL SWIMMERS SHOULD SWIM THE PRESENCE OF
LIFEGUARDS. SWIMMING AFTER HOURS OR NEAR JETTIES/GROINS IS UNSAFE,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE INEXPERIENCED WEAKER SWIMMERS. IF RIP CURRENT
TROUBLE DEVELOPS...STAYING CALM AND FLOATING IT OUT IS THE BEST
YOU CAN DO AND THEN RETURN TO SHORE ONCE THE SEAWARD DRIFT HAS
STOPPED.
&&
.CLIMATE...
FOUR RECORD EQUALING HIGH TEMPS YESTERDAY JUNE 12. KPHL, KABE,
KRDG AND KGED.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/KLINE
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER/KLINE
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
204 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015/
.UPDATE...
RIDGING STILL LOOKING TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON TO
MAINLY ONLY THE FAR SW OR WEST THIS AFTERNOON. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
MADE TO SKY COVER TRENDS AND REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
BAKER
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
/ISSUED 250 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015/
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS MORNING AND
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUN RISE. HRRR SEEMED TO HAVE A
BEST HANDLE ON THE RAIN OVERNIGHT AND IS SHOWING VERY LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE...DRIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH SUNRISE /EVEN WITH MAIN AREA
OF RAIN DIMINISHING/. IF THIS OCCURS THOUGH...WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND
ISOLATED THROUGH THE MORNING.
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND THIS
WILL HELP TO LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA AND THUS FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE SHORT TERM HAVE LIMITED POPS TO ABOUT 20 PERCENT.
THERE ARE ONCE AGAIN DISCREPANCIES IN THE HI-RES MODELS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON THOUGH...SOME HINT AT SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SW
PART OF THE CWA AND THUS WENT SLIGHTLY HIGH ON POPS IN THAT AREA.
WITH UPPER RIDGE...WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH
90S ACROSS THE CWA /EXCEPT FOR THE MOUNTAINS/ TODAY AND TOMORROW.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE A FEW DEGREES FOR SUNDAY COMPARED TO
SATURDAY WITH VALUES REACHING THE UPPER 90S ACROSS PARTS OF EAST
CENTRAL GEORGIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THAT AREA WILL SEE SOME HEAT INDEX
VALUES TOPPING 100 SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO STILL BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA /HEAT INDEX VALUE OF 105 OR GREATER/. REGARDLESS
THOUGH...ITS STILL GOING TO BE HOT OUT AND WITH THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OF THE YEAR SO FAR...FOLKS ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA SHOULD FOLLOW HEAT SAFETY PRECAUTIONS AND LIMIT TIME
OUTDOORS.
11
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
/ISSUED 250 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015/
LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH BUILDING HIGH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WITH GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS. ECMWF IS PERHAPS A
LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE 500 MB HIGH BUT DIFFERENCES ARE
NEGLIGIBLE AND SHOULD NOT AFFECT SENSIBLE WEATHER. DESPITE THE
OVERALL SUBSIDENCE PROVIDED BY THE STACKED HIGH...MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN PLENTIFUL WITH PWATS OVER 1.75 INCHES AND CLOSE TO 2 INCHES
IN SOME LOCATIONS. WAS WAITING A FEW RUNS TO SEE IF THIS PERSISTED AND
IT HAS INDEED IN THE MODELS SO WILL NEED TO INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY
IN LATEST GRID SET.
THIS TREND CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY WITH UPPER HIGH GETTING A LITTLE
STRONGER AND BUILDING WESTWARD WHILE MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH WITH
ONLY MARGINALLY LOWER VALUES THAN MONDAY. OVERALL LIFT IN THE
AFTERNOON LOOKS LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN MONDAY AND ALTHOUGH WILL
MAINTAIN POPS FOR ALL AREAS...CANNOT SEE GOING HIGHER THAN SLIGHT
CHANCE AT THIS POINT.
MAIN WX SYSTEMS REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE AREA FOR WED ALTHOUGH HIGH
DOES SHOW SOME SIGNS OF WEAKENING. MAY SEE SOME ENHANCED LATE
EVENING ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FAR NW AS A RESULT BUT OVERALL POPS
WILL REMAIN LIMITED IN THE LOW END CHANCE RANGE.
RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN TIER. MOISTURE
WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WELL WITH PWATS OVER 2 INCHES NORTH OF A
ROME TO CLEVELAND LINE REQUIRING AT LEAST HIGH END CHANCE POPS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
OVERALL NUMBERS AND THINKING ON BUILDING HEAT HAS NOT CHANGES WITH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY TEMPERATURES NEAR 100 FOR FAR SE SECTIONS AND
HEAT INDICES AROUND 105.
DEESE
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU PERIOD. FEW TO SCT CU FIELD IN 3-5
KFT RANGE DURING AFTERNOON PERIODS AND SOME ALTO OR CIRRUS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. WINDS MAINLY WEST TO SW AT 3-6 KTS WITH LIGHT
TO CALM OVERNIGHT.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.
BAKER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 93 71 96 72 / 10 10 10 10
ATLANTA 90 73 92 74 / 20 10 20 10
BLAIRSVILLE 84 65 88 66 / 20 20 20 10
CARTERSVILLE 91 69 92 70 / 20 20 20 10
COLUMBUS 92 72 94 73 / 20 20 20 10
GAINESVILLE 89 71 91 72 / 10 10 20 10
MACON 94 71 96 72 / 10 10 20 10
ROME 91 69 93 70 / 20 10 20 10
PEACHTREE CITY 91 70 92 71 / 20 20 20 10
VIDALIA 95 74 95 74 / 10 10 20 10
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...11/BAKER
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...BAKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1040 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
.UPDATE...
RIDGING STILL LOOKING TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON TO
MAINLY ONLY THE FAR SW OR WEST THIS AFTERNOON. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
MADE TO SKY COVER TRENDS AND REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
BAKER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 724 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015/
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
/ISSUED 250 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015/
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS MORNING AND
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUN RISE. HRRR SEEMED TO HAVE A
BEST HANDLE ON THE RAIN OVERNIGHT AND IS SHOWING VERY LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE...DRIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH SUNRISE /EVEN WITH MAIN AREA
OF RAIN DIMINISHING/. IF THIS OCCURS THOUGH...WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND
ISOLATED THROUGH THE MORNING.
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND THIS
WILL HELP TO LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA AND THUS FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE SHORT TERM HAVE LIMITED POPS TO ABOUT 20 PERCENT.
THERE ARE ONCE AGAIN DISCREPANCIES IN THE HI-RES MODELS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON THOUGH...SOME HINT AT SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SW
PART OF THE CWA AND THUS WENT SLIGHTLY HIGH ON POPS IN THAT AREA.
WITH UPPER RIDGE...WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH
90S ACROSS THE CWA /EXCEPT FOR THE MOUNTAINS/ TODAY AND TOMORROW.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE A FEW DEGREES FOR SUNDAY COMPARED TO
SATURDAY WITH VALUES REACHING THE UPPER 90S ACROSS PARTS OF EAST
CENTRAL GEORGIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THAT AREA WILL SEE SOME HEAT INDEX
VALUES TOPPING 100 SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO STILL BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA /HEAT INDEX VALUE OF 105 OR GREATER/. REGARDLESS
THOUGH...ITS STILL GOING TO BE HOT OUT AND WITH THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OF THE YEAR SO FAR...FOLKS ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA SHOULD FOLLOW HEAT SAFETY PRECAUTIONS AND LIMIT TIME
OUTDOORS.
11
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
/ISSUED 250 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015/
LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH BUILDING HIGH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WITH GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS. ECMWF IS PERHAPS A
LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE 500 MB HIGH BUT DIFFERENCES ARE
NEGLIGIBLE AND SHOULD NOT AFFECT SENSIBLE WEATHER. DESPITE THE
OVERALL SUBSIDENCE PROVIDED BY THE STACKED HIGH...MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN PLENTIFUL WITH PWATS OVER 1.75 INCHES AND CLOSE TO 2 INCHES
IN SOME LOCATIONS. WAS WAITING A FEW RUNS TO SEE IF THIS PERSISTED AND
IT HAS INDEED IN THE MODELS SO WILL NEED TO INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY
IN LATEST GRID SET.
THIS TREND CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY WITH UPPER HIGH GETTING A LITTLE
STRONGER AND BUILDING WESTWARD WHILE MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH WITH
ONLY MARGINALLY LOWER VALUES THAN MONDAY. OVERALL LIFT IN THE
AFTERNOON LOOKS LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN MONDAY AND ALTHOUGH WILL
MAINTAIN POPS FOR ALL AREAS...CANNOT SEE GOING HIGHER THAN SLIGHT
CHANCE AT THIS POINT.
MAIN WX SYSTEMS REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE AREA FOR WED ALTHOUGH HIGH
DOES SHOW SOME SIGNS OF WEAKENING. MAY SEE SOME ENHANCED LATE
EVENING ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FAR NW AS A RESULT BUT OVERALL POPS
WILL REMAIN LIMITED IN THE LOW END CHANCE RANGE.
RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN TIER. MOISTURE
WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WELL WITH PWATS OVER 2 INCHES NORTH OF A
ROME TO CLEVELAND LINE REQUIRING AT LEAST HIGH END CHANCE POPS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
OVERALL NUMBERS AND THINKING ON BUILDING HEAT HAS NOT CHANGES WITH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY TEMPERATURES NEAR 100 FOR FAR SE SECTIONS AND
HEAT INDICES AROUND 105.
DEESE
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
HI CLOUDS THIS MORNING BUT EXPECT FEW-SCT CU FIELD TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT ISOLATED TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF AT THE
MOMENT BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH CLOSELY.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.
11
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 93 71 96 72 / 10 10 20 10
ATLANTA 90 73 92 74 / 20 20 20 10
BLAIRSVILLE 84 65 88 66 / 20 20 20 10
CARTERSVILLE 91 69 92 70 / 20 20 20 10
COLUMBUS 92 72 94 73 / 20 20 20 20
GAINESVILLE 89 71 91 72 / 20 20 20 10
MACON 94 71 96 72 / 20 20 20 20
ROME 91 69 93 70 / 20 20 20 10
PEACHTREE CITY 91 70 92 71 / 20 20 20 10
VIDALIA 95 74 95 74 / 20 10 20 20
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...11/BAKER
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
724 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
/ISSUED 250 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015/
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS MORNING AND
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUN RISE. HRRR SEEMED TO HAVE A
BEST HANDLE ON THE RAIN OVERNIGHT AND IS SHOWING VERY LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE...DRIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH SUNRISE /EVEN WITH MAIN AREA
OF RAIN DIMINISHING/. IF THIS OCCURS THOUGH...WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND
ISOLATED THROUGH THE MORNING.
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND THIS
WILL HELP TO LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA AND THUS FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE SHORT TERM HAVE LIMITED POPS TO ABOUT 20 PERCENT.
THERE ARE ONCE AGAIN DISCREPANCIES IN THE HI-RES MODELS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON THOUGH...SOME HINT AT SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SW
PART OF THE CWA AND THUS WENT SLIGHTLY HIGH ON POPS IN THAT AREA.
WITH UPPER RIDGE...WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH
90S ACROSS THE CWA /EXCEPT FOR THE MOUNTAINS/ TODAY AND TOMORROW.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE A FEW DEGREES FOR SUNDAY COMPARED TO
SATURDAY WITH VALUES REACHING THE UPPER 90S ACROSS PARTS OF EAST
CENTRAL GEORGIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THAT AREA WILL SEE SOME HEAT INDEX
VALUES TOPPING 100 SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO STILL BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA /HEAT INDEX VALUE OF 105 OR GREATER/. REGARDLESS
THOUGH...ITS STILL GOING TO BE HOT OUT AND WITH THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OF THE YEAR SO FAR...FOLKS ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA SHOULD FOLLOW HEAT SAFETY PRECAUTIONS AND LIMIT TIME
OUTDOORS.
11
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
/ISSUED 250 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015/
LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH BUILDING HIGH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WITH GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS. ECMWF IS PERHAPS A
LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE 500 MB HIGH BUT DIFFERENCES ARE
NEGLIGIBLE AND SHOULD NOT AFFECT SENSIBLE WEATHER. DESPITE THE
OVERALL SUBSIDENCE PROVIDED BY THE STACKED HIGH...MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN PLENTIFUL WITH PWATS OVER 1.75 INCHES AND CLOSE TO 2 INCHES
IN SOME LOCATIONS. WAS WAITING A FEW RUNS TO SEE IF THIS PERSISTED AND
IT HAS INDEED IN THE MODELS SO WILL NEED TO INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY
IN LATEST GRID SET.
THIS TREND CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY WITH UPPER HIGH GETTING A LITTLE
STRONGER AND BUILDING WESTWARD WHILE MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH WITH
ONLY MARGINALLY LOWER VALUES THAN MONDAY. OVERALL LIFT IN THE
AFTERNOON LOOKS LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN MONDAY AND ALTHOUGH WILL
MAINTAIN POPS FOR ALL AREAS...CANNOT SEE GOING HIGHER THAN SLIGHT
CHANCE AT THIS POINT.
MAIN WX SYSTEMS REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE AREA FOR WED ALTHOUGH HIGH
DOES SHOW SOME SIGNS OF WEAKENING. MAY SEE SOME ENHANCED LATE
EVENING ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FAR NW AS A RESULT BUT OVERALL POPS
WILL REMAIN LIMITED IN THE LOW END CHANCE RANGE.
RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN TIER. MOISTURE
WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WELL WITH PWATS OVER 2 INCHES NORTH OF A
ROME TO CLEVELAND LINE REQUIRING AT LEAST HIGH END CHANCE POPS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
OVERALL NUMBERS AND THINKING ON BUILDING HEAT HAS NOT CHANGES WITH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY TEMPERATURES NEAR 100 FOR FAR SE SECTIONS AND
HEAT INDICES AROUND 105.
DEESE
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
HI CLOUDS THIS MORNING BUT EXPECT FEW-SCT CU FIELD TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT ISOLATED TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF AT THE
MOMENT BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH CLOSELY.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.
11
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 93 71 96 72 / 20 10 20 10
ATLANTA 90 73 92 74 / 20 20 20 10
BLAIRSVILLE 84 65 88 66 / 20 20 20 10
CARTERSVILLE 91 69 92 70 / 20 20 20 10
COLUMBUS 92 72 94 73 / 20 20 20 20
GAINESVILLE 89 71 91 72 / 20 20 20 10
MACON 94 71 96 72 / 10 20 20 20
ROME 91 69 93 70 / 20 20 20 10
PEACHTREE CITY 91 70 92 71 / 20 20 20 10
VIDALIA 95 74 95 74 / 10 10 20 20
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
332 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC NW INTO THE SE US TODAY THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK...LEADING TO HOTTER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY OR EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTH LATE
NEXT WEEK AND A FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH...LEADING TO
TEMPERATURES NOT QUITE AS HOT AND A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...SHOWERS HAVE MADE IT INTO THE CSRA BUT
APPEAR TO BE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD. HRRR ALSO SHOWS
ACTIVITY WEAKENING AND DISSIPATING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT ACROSS THE AREA WITH PWAT VALUES OF 1.9
TO 2.0 INCHES. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON TRACK FOR THE LOWER 70S AT MOST
LOCATIONS.
TODAY...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND
OVER THE AREA WITH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST AND LEE-
SIDE TROUGHING OVER THE CAROLINAS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION APPEAR TO BE NORTHWEST AND EAST OF THE FA
ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM. BUILDING
HEIGHTS AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL PROMOTE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MIDDLE 90S NORTH TO UPPER 90S CENTRAL AND SOUTH. WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE 60S...HEAT INDICES WILL REACH 100 DEGREES IN MANY
LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL TONIGHT...SO BASICALLY
A DRY FORECAST AT THIS TIME. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL IN THE
LOWER 70S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
FOR SUNDAY...THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE AS AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL APPROACH 100 DEGREES. MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 100S...WHICH IS BELOW ANY HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS PROGGED TO REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH WITH SOME LEE SIDE
TROUGHING AND A WEAK BACK DOOR BOUNDARY REMAINING MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS
MOST CONVECTION OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED
POSSIBLE AT BEST. AT THIS TIME WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST...WITH
POPS JUST BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
WARM TREND AS READINGS ONLY FALL IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS HAVE THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE SITUATED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CSRA TO START OFF THE DAY ON MONDAY. THIS HIGH WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA INTO TUESDAY BEFORE THE CENTER BEGINS TO
PUSH BACK OFFSHORE INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA NEXT WEEK...WITH ONLY A LEE
SIDE TROUGH POSSIBLY SETTING UP THROUGH THE EAST-CENTRAL
CAROLINAS. CONTINUED HOT WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR 100 THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN AS THE
CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE PUSHES EAST OFF THE COAST...READINGS MAY
FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 90S TO END THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS TO REMAIN
MUGGY AND IN THE MIDDLE 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE MOVING NE ACROSS DNL/AGS EARLY THIS MORNING
ALTHOUGH NO RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED. MODELS SHOW THIS ACTIVITY
CONTINUING TO WEAKEN. UPPER RIDGE WILL EXPAND OVER THE AREA
TODAY PROVIDING LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. GENERALLY SCATTERED
CUMULUS CLOUDS AND LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT STRATUS DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING DUE
TO DRIER LOWER LEVELS. LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED A BIT SO FOG POTENTIAL ALSO LOW. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PICK UP FROM THE WEST BY 15Z AT
AROUND 10 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER 00Z AND
BECOME LIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
250 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS MORNING AND
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUN RISE. HRRR SEEMED TO HAVE A
BEST HANDLE ON THE RAIN OVERNIGHT AND IS SHOWING VERY LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE...DRIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH SUNRISE /EVEN WITH MAIN AREA
OF RAIN DIMINISHING/. IF THIS OCCURS THOUGH...WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND
ISOLATED THROUGH THE MORNING.
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND THIS
WILL HELP TO LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA AND THUS FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE SHORT TERM HAVE LIMITED POPS TO ABOUT 20 PERCENT.
THERE ARE ONCE AGAIN DISCREPANCIES IN THE HI-RES MODELS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON THOUGH...SOME HINT AT SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SW
PART OF THE CWA AND THUS WENT SLIGHTLY HIGH ON POPS IN THAT AREA.
WITH UPPER RIDGE...WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH
90S ACROSS THE CWA /EXCEPT FOR THE MOUNTAINS/ TODAY AND TOMORROW.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE A FEW DEGREES FOR SUNDAY COMPARED TO
SATURDAY WITH VALUES REACHING THE UPPER 90S ACROSS PARTS OF EAST
CENTRAL GEORGIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THAT AREA WILL SEE SOME HEAT INDEX
VALUES TOPPING 100 SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO STILL BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA /HEAT INDEX VALUE OF 105 OR GREATER/. REGARDLESS
THOUGH...ITS STILL GOING TO BE HOT OUT AND WITH THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OF THE YEAR SO FAR...FOLKS ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA SHOULD FOLLOW HEAT SAFETY PRECAUTIONS AND LIMIT TIME
OUTDOORS.
11
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH BUILDING HIGH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WITH GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS. ECMWF IS PERHAPS A
LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE 500 MB HIGH BUT DIFFERENCES ARE
NEGLIGIBLE AND SHOULD NOT AFFECT SENSIBLE WEATHER. DESPITE THE
OVERALL SUBSIDENCE PROVIDED BY THE STACKED HIGH...MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN PLENTIFUL WITH PWATS OVER 1.75 INCHES AND CLOSE TO 2 INCHES
IN SOME LOCATIONS. WAS WAITING A FEW RUNS TO SEE IF THIS PERSISTED AND
IT HAS INDEED IN THE MODELS SO WILL NEED TO INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY
IN LATEST GRID SET.
THIS TREND CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY WITH UPPER HIGH GETTING A LITTLE
STRONGER AND BUILDING WESTWARD WHILE MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH WITH
ONLY MARGINALLY LOWER VALUES THAN MONDAY. OVERALL LIFT IN THE
AFTERNOON LOOKS LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN MONDAY AND ALTHOUGH WILL
MAINTAIN POPS FOR ALL AREAS...CANNOT SEE GOING HIGHER THAN SLIGHT
CHANCE AT THIS POINT.
MAIN WX SYSTEMS REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE AREA FOR WED ALTHOUGH HIGH
DOES SHOW SOME SIGNS OF WEAKENING. MAY SEE SOME ENHANCED LATE
EVENING ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FAR NW AS A RESULT BUT OVERALL POPS
WILL REMAIN LIMITED IN THE LOW END CHANCE RANGE.
RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN TIER. MOISTURE
WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WELL WITH PWATS OVER 2 INCHES NORTH OF A
ROME TO CLEVELAND LINE REQUIRING AT LEAST HIGH END CHANCE POPS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
OVERALL NUMBERS AND THINKING ON BUILDING HEAT HAS NOT CHANGES WITH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY TEMPERATURES NEAR 100 FOR FAR SE SECTIONS AND
HEAT INDICES AROUND 105.
DEESE
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
SHOWERS ARE LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS MORNING AND ARE
SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH. ALTHOUGH DID MENTION VCSH IN THE ATL
TAFS...SHRA MAY DISSIPATE BEFORE MAKING IT THAT FAR NORTH. SOME
GUIDANCE IS POINTING AT MVFR FOG IN THE MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AT THIS POINT ON THE FOG. DID MENTION IT AT CSG THOUGH
GIVEN THE RAIN THEY RECEIVED EARLIER.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WIND AND CIGS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON VSBY.
11
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 93 70 95 72 / 20 10 20 10
ATLANTA 90 73 92 74 / 20 20 20 10
BLAIRSVILLE 85 65 88 65 / 30 30 30 10
CARTERSVILLE 91 69 93 71 / 20 20 20 10
COLUMBUS 93 73 94 73 / 20 20 20 10
GAINESVILLE 89 71 92 72 / 20 20 20 10
MACON 94 70 96 72 / 20 10 20 10
ROME 90 68 93 70 / 20 20 20 10
PEACHTREE CITY 91 68 92 71 / 20 20 20 10
VIDALIA 95 73 96 75 / 20 10 20 10
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
208 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
MOIST DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO PROVIDE PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. ALTHOUGH
ATMOSPHERE ISN`T QUITE AS MOIST AS YESTERDAY (PER 12Z KILX
SOUNDING). POTENTIAL STILL REMAINS FOR SOME EFFICIENT CONVECTION
AND POSSIBLE PRECIP LOADING PRODUCING STRONG WINDS. ALTHOUGH
INITIAL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON HAS DEVELOPED IN SAME AREA AS
LAST NIGHTS LINE WHERE INSTABILITY AXIS REMAINS...LATEST MESOSCALE
MODELS SUGGEST PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING OVER MISSOURI WILL BE
BIGGER ORGANIZED THREAT AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN
ILLINOIS. INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL LIKELY BE PRIMED TO PRODUCE
LOCALIZED STRONG WINDS. IF ORGANIZED LINES CAN DEVELOP...THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS.
LATEST HRRR SUGGEST SCATTERED CONVECTION EAST OF I-55 WILL BE MORE
DIURNAL IN NATURE DRIVEN BY INSTABILITY AND A LACK OF SHEAR. MORE
SHEAR IS PROGGED OVER WESTERN ILLINOIS AND PRECIP MAY LINGER INTO
THE EARLY MORNING.
GROUND REMAINS LOCALLY SATURATED AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
LEADS TO SOME FLOODING POTENTIAL IN WESTERN ILLINOIS PER MPD ISSUED
BY WPC. AN ESF HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LONG-RANGE HEAVY RAIN THREAT AND
WILL MENTION POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IN GRIDS AND WORDED FORECASTS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 4 DAYS...AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS ACROSS ILLINOIS AND A LARGE RIDGE IN
THE SOUTHEAST STATES PROVIDES A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW INTO
ILLINOIS. PERIODIC SHORTWAVES, SOME CONVECTIVELY INDUCED, WILL
RIDE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE LARGE
UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE WAVES IN THE MODELS.
HOWEVER, THERE IS ENOUGH AGREEMENT OVER ABNORMALLY HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT AND MODERATE INSTABILITY THAT WE KEPT LARGE PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS IN LIKELY POPS EACH PERIOD THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
SEVERE CHANCES APPEAR TO BE HIGHER ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVE AND AGAIN
ON MONDAY, BUT WE CANT RULE OUT INCREASING CHANCES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THOSE DAYS GET CLOSER. PRECIP LOADING IN MANY
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE
DOWNBURST WINDS. 0-6KM WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 30KT,
WITH UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORMS TRAINING IN A
LINE. SO MAIN HAZARDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE DAMAGING WINDS AND FLASH
FLOODING. WILL MONITOR HAIL POTENTIAL, SINCE EVEN A SLIGHT LOWERING
OF THE FREEZING LEVEL WOULD INCREASE HAIL PRODUCTION.
WE CONSIDERED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH, BUT MODEL UNCERTAINTIES HAVE KEPT
A LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION SEEING THE AXIS OF HEAVY
RAINS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY IN THE COMING MODEL RUNS FOR
A POTENTIAL OPPORTUNITY TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA OF CONCERN. FOR NOW,
WILL HIGHLIGHT THE FLOODING THREAT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
THE FAR EXTENDED STILL CONTAINS POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY THROUGH
SATURDAY, BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT MAY SAG FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF OUR COUNTIES TO PROVIDE MORE SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN
THE RAIN CHANCES FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
CONVECTION DEVELOPING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON NEAR I-72. WILL HAVE TO
INTRODUCE SOME TEMPO TSTM INITIALLY AT KSPI/KDEC/KCMI. COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY REMAIN SCATTERED. 12Z MODELS INDICATE MORE WIDESPREAD
DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN MISSOURI AND ADVECTING INTO WESTERN
ILLINOIS DURING THE 20-24Z PERIOD. KPIA WILL LIKELY HAVE THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT WITH KSPI AND KBMI RETAINING SCATTERED
COVERAGE.
KILX SOUNDING FROM 12Z NOT QUITE AS MOIST AS YESTERDAY...BUT STILL
WELL ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME DOWNBURST ACTIVITY
OR EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD WIND IF A LINE CAN GET ORGANIZED. AIRCRAFT
SHOULD BE CAUTIOUS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MOISTURE SHOULD
ALSO LEAD TO EFFICIENT STORMS THAT WILL BE CAPABLE OF REDUCING
VSBYS INTO MVFR OR EVEN BRIEFLY INTO IFR.
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO KEEP THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS NORTH OF TERMINALS.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BARKER
LONG TERM...SHIMON
AVIATION...BARKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
400 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT. SOME STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 60S AND 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
AIRMASS BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTN WITH RAP ANALYSIS
SUGGESTING MLCAPES 2.0-2.5KJ/KG. WINDS ALOFT HAVE DECREASED SOME
SINCE YDAY AS RIDGE HAS BUILT NNW FROM THE SERN CONUS... STILL MODEST
SWLY FLOW WAS RESULTING IN EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 25-30KT
ACROSS THE AREA WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO THERE IS SOME DRY AIR ALOFT EVIDENT ON THE WATER
VAPOR LOOP AND BUFR FCST SOUNDINGS RESULTING IN MAX SFC DELTA
THETA-E VALUES >30K... SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR MICROBURSTS AND
CONSIDERABLE CAPE THROUGH THE -10C TO -30C LAYER SUPPORTING HAIL
GROWTH WITH ANY DEEP CONVECTION. MAIN FORCING MECHANISM APPEARS
TO BE A WK SHRTWV MOVG NE ACROSS NWRN IL WITH STORMS NOW DVLPG TO
ITS S-SE ACROSS CENTRAL IL/IN.
ANOTHER SHRTWV OVER THE SRN PLAINS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE INTO THE
WRN GRTLKS REGION TONIGHT AND THEN EAST OVER THE TOP OF THE SERN
CONUS RIDGE ON SUNDAY. EXPECT AN MCS WILL DEVELOP AT NOSE OF LLJ
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE TONIGHT IMPACTING NWRN PORTION OF THE
CWA FIRST... THEN SHIFTING EAST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. GIVEN
THIS EXPECTATION WILL BE BUMPING UP POPS FROM CHC TO LIKELY FOR
TONIGHT OVER MOST OF THE CWA... WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE TO GOING
LIKELYS FOR SUNDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL A POSSIBILITY IN THIS TIMEFRAME
GIVEN PWATS AROUND 2"... SMALL FCST MBE VECTORS... AND EXPECTED
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH LOWS TONIGHT AROUND 70. EXPECT CLOUDS
SHOWERS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO HOLD TEMPS DOWN A BIT OVER RECENT DAYS
ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS FCST IN THE L80S.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL PERSIST OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL APPROACH
THE JUNE CLIMATOLOGICAL RECORDS NEAR 2.25 INCHES ON SEVERAL
OCCASIONS. GIVEN A LONG DURATION OF THESE HIGH VALUES...CAPE VALUES
GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000 J/KG COMBINED WITH A DEEP WARM CLOUD
LAYER...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING FLOODING.
HAVE UPDATED THE HYDROLOGICAL OUT THAT WAS ISSUED TO REFLECT THE
RISK OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING. WPC/NCEP WAS INDICATING A SEVEN DAY
AXIS OF 6 INCHES OF HEAVY RAIN NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVED FROM ILLINOIS
TO OHIO. THESE HIGH AMOUNTS ARE SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST RUNS OF THE
GFS...ECMWF AND THE CANADIAN GEM. ALSO...RECENT RAINFALL ANALYSIS BY
AHPS SHOW 2 WEEK TOTAL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 2 AND 6 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY
7 INCHES OF RAIN. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS SINCE MAY 31ST ARE SUPPORTED
BY COCORAHS OBSERVATIONS. ALL CONDSIDERED...HAVE UPDATED THE ESF
STATEMENT WITH THESE CONCERNS. OTHERWISE...THERE COULD BE A SHORT
BREAK IN THE HUMID PATTERN LATE THIS WEEK...BUT FOR NOW...WAS
HESITANT TO LOWER SUPERBLEND RAIN CHANCES. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES
APPEAR FAIRLY LOW THIS PERIOD...NOT COUNTING THE CHANCES FOR
FLOODING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
SCT TS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN AND PRBLY HAVE SOME IMPACT
ON THE TERMINALS. ADDED GUSTY WINDS TO THE TEMPO TS GROUP AS DRY
MID LEVELS WILL SUPPORT MICROBURSTS WITH ANY DEEP CONVECTION.
SHRTWV EXPECTED TO LIFT NE FROM THE PLAINS ACROSS THE WRN GRTLKS
TONIGHT. INCREASE IN LLJ TO SE OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD FOCUS
CONVECTION ACROSS NWRN INDIANA TONIGHT SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST
OVERNIGHT. FCST SHRA WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN TAFS OVERNIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING... SOME EMBEDDED TS ALSO PSBL BUT HELD OFF
INCLUDING FOR NOW.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...JT
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
300 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT. SOME STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 60S AND 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
AIRMASS BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTN WITH RAP ANALYSIS
SUGGESTING MLCAPES 2.0-2.5KJ/KG. WINDS ALOFT HAVE DECREASED SOME
SINCE YDAY AS RIDGE HAS BUILT NNW FROM THE SERN CONUS... STILL MODEST
SWLY FLOW WAS RESULTING IN EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 25-30KT
ACROSS THE AREA WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO THERE IS SOME DRY AIR ALOFT EVIDENT ON THE WATER
VAPOR LOOP AND BUFR FCST SOUNDINGS RESULTING IN MAX SFC DELTA
THETA-E VALUES >30K... SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR MICROBURSTS AND
CONSIDERABLE CAPE THROUGH THE -10C TO -30C LAYER SUPPORTING HAIL
GROWTH WITH ANY DEEP CONVECTION. MAIN FORCING MECHANISM APPEARS
TO BE A WK SHRTWV MOVG NE ACROSS NWRN IL WITH STORMS NOW DVLPG TO
ITS S-SE ACROSS CENTRAL IL/IN.
ANOTHER SHRTWV OVER THE SRN PLAINS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE INTO THE
WRN GRTLKS REGION TONIGHT AND THEN EAST OVER THE TOP OF THE SERN
CONUS RIDGE ON SUNDAY. EXPECT AN MCS WILL DEVELOP AT NOSE OF LLJ
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE TONIGHT IMPACTING NWRN PORTION OF THE
CWA FIRST... THEN SHIFTING EAST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. GIVEN
THIS EXPECTATION WILL BE BUMPING UP POPS FROM CHC TO LIKELY FOR
TONIGHT OVER MOST OF THE CWA... WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE TO GOING
LIKELYS FOR SUNDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL A POSSIBILITY IN THIS TIMEFRAME
GIVEN PWATS AROUND 2"... SMALL FCST MBE VECTORS... AND EXPECTED
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH LOWS TONIGHT AROUND 70. EXPECT CLOUDS
SHOWERS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO HOLD TEMPS DOWN A BIT OVER RECENT DAYS
ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS FCST IN THE L80S.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
WARM AND WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ALONG WITH PERIODS OF SEVERE WEATHER.
SUBTROPICAL BERMUDA HIGH WILL EXPAND WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS WHILE TROUGHINESS CONTINUES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
MIDWEST. THIS PINCHES OUR REGION WITH STRONGER WESTERLIES NEAR OR
JUST TO THE NORTH AND COPIOUS MOISTURE FEED FROM GULF RIGHT INTO OUR
REGION. WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL LIE PARALLEL TO MID LEVEL FLOW AND
REMAIN QUASI STATIONARY OVER THE REGION BUT PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR
PERIODIC THUNDERSTORMS.
IMPRESSIVE PWATS BETWEEN 1.7 AND 2.0 INCHES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. GFS BRINGS TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
FROM GULF WHICH PROMPTS A RESPONSE IN PWATS CLOSER TO 2.3 INCHES.
GIVEN THE MOIST AIRMASS ALONG WITH MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IT
WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO SPARK PERIODS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD. WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY HIGH CHANCE OR LIKELY POPS. JUST NO WAY TO IRON
OUT DETAILS GIVEN COMPLICATED CONVECTIVE PATTERN AND BOUNDARIES. THE
HIGH WATER CONTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND WARM CLOUD PROCESSES WILL
PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL WITH 1 TO 2 INCH
PER HOUR RATES LIKELY. FLOODING REMAINS A CONCERN THROUGH THE
PERIOD. CLOUD COVER LOOKS ABUNDANT BUT ANY BREAKS DURING THE DAY
SHOULD ALLOW INSTABILITY TO INCREASE. TIMING WITH SHORT WAVES AND
KINEMATICS COULD PRODUCE BOUTS OF PULSE SEVERE WEATHER LIKE WE HAVE
SEEN LAST FEW DAYS. BASICALLY FEW CHANGES TO FORECAST THINKING WITH
THIS PACKAGE WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS PER LATEST SUPERBLEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
SCT TS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN AND PRBLY HAVE SOME IMPACT
ON THE TERMINALS. ADDED GUSTY WINDS TO THE TEMPO TS GROUP AS DRY
MID LEVELS WILL SUPPORT MICROBURSTS WITH ANY DEEP CONVECTION.
SHRTWV EXPECTED TO LIFT NE FROM THE PLAINS ACROSS THE WRN GRTLKS
TONIGHT. INCREASE IN LLJ TO SE OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD FOCUS
CONVECTION ACROSS NWRN INDIANA TONIGHT SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST
OVERNIGHT. FCST SHRA WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN TAFS OVERNIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING... SOME EMBEDDED TS ALSO PSBL BUT HELD OFF
INCLUDING FOR NOW.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...JT
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
149 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TODAY AS A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY HANGS OVER THE REGION. THE RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER IS LOWER TODAY BUT HEAVY RAIN AND A FEW GUSTY WINDS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S TODAY. CHANCES OF RAIN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
AIRMASS BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTN WITH RAP ANALYSIS
SUGGESTING MLCAPES 2.0-2.5KJ/KG. WINDS ALOFT HAVE DECREASED SOME
SINCE YDAY AS RIDGE HAS BUILT NNW FROM THE SERN CONUS... STILL MODEST
SWLY FLOW WAS RESULTING IN EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 25-30KT
ACROSS THE AREA WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO THERE IS SOME DRY AIR ALOFT EVIDENT ON THE WATER
VAPOR LOOP AND BUFR FCST SOUNDINGS RESULTING IN MAX SFC DELTA
THETA-E VALUES >30K... SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR MICROBURSTS AND
CONSIDERABLE CAPE THROUGH THE -10C TO -30C LAYER SUPPORTING HAIL
GROWTH WITH ANY DEEP CONVECTION. MAIN FORCING MECHANISM APPEARS
TO BE A WK SHRTWV MOVG NE ACROSS NWRN IL WITH STORMS NOW DVLPG TO
ITS S-SE ACROSS CENTRAL IL/IN.
ANOTHER SHRTWV OVER THE SRN PLAINS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE INTO THE
WRN GRTLKS REGION TONIGHT AND THEN EAST OVER THE TOP OF THE SERN
CONUS RIDGE ON SUNDAY. EXPECT AN MCS WILL DEVELOP AT NOSE OF LLJ
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE TONIGHT IMPACTING NWRN PORTION OF THE
CWA FIRST... THEN SHIFTING EAST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. GIVEN
THIS EXPECTATION WILL BE BUMPING UP POPS FROM CHC TO LIKELY FOR
TONIGHT OVER MOST OF THE CWA... WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE TO GOING
LIKELYS FOR SUNDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL A POSSIBILITY IN THIS TIMEFRAME
GIVEN PWATS AROUND 2"... SMALL FCST MBE VECTORS... AND EXPECTED
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH LOWS TONIGHT AROUND 70. EXPECT CLOUDS
SHOWERS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO HOLD TEMPS DOWN A BIT OVER RECENT DAYS
ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS FCST IN THE L80S.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
WARM AND WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ALONG WITH PERIODS OF SEVERE WEATHER.
SUBTROPICAL BERMUDA HIGH WILL EXPAND WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS WHILE TROUGHINESS CONTINUES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
MIDWEST. THIS PINCHES OUR REGION WITH STRONGER WESTERLIES NEAR OR
JUST TO THE NORTH AND COPIOUS MOISTURE FEED FROM GULF RIGHT INTO OUR
REGION. WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL LIE PARALLEL TO MID LEVEL FLOW AND
REMAIN QUASI STATIONARY OVER THE REGION BUT PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR
PERIODIC THUNDERSTORMS.
IMPRESSIVE PWATS BETWEEN 1.7 AND 2.0 INCHES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. GFS BRINGS TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
FROM GULF WHICH PROMPTS A RESPONSE IN PWATS CLOSER TO 2.3 INCHES.
GIVEN THE MOIST AIRMASS ALONG WITH MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IT
WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO SPARK PERIODS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD. WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY HIGH CHANCE OR LIKELY POPS. JUST NO WAY TO IRON
OUT DETAILS GIVEN COMPLICATED CONVECTIVE PATTERN AND BOUNDARIES. THE
HIGH WATER CONTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND WARM CLOUD PROCESSES WILL
PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL WITH 1 TO 2 INCH
PER HOUR RATES LIKELY. FLOODING REMAINS A CONCERN THROUGH THE
PERIOD. CLOUD COVER LOOKS ABUNDANT BUT ANY BREAKS DURING THE DAY
SHOULD ALLOW INSTABILITY TO INCREASE. TIMING WITH SHORT WAVES AND
KINEMATICS COULD PRODUCE BOUTS OF PULSE SEVERE WEATHER LIKE WE HAVE
SEEN LAST FEW DAYS. BASICALLY FEW CHANGES TO FORECAST THINKING WITH
THIS PACKAGE WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS PER LATEST SUPERBLEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND WK SHRTWV LIFTING NE ACROSS NWRN IL
EXPECTED TO CAUSE SCT TS ACROSS NRN INDIANA THIS AFTN WHICH SHOULD IMPACT
THE TERMINALS. ADDED GUSTY WINDS TO THE TEMPO TS GROUPS AS DRY MID
LEVELS WILL SUPPORT STRONG DOWNDRAFTS/PSBL MICROBURSTS WITH ANY
DEEP CONVECTION. SHRTWV EXPECTED TO LIFT NE FROM THE PLAINS ACROSS
THE WRN GRTLKS TONIGHT. INCREASE IN LLJ TO SE OF THIS FEATURE
SHOULD FOCUS CONVECTION ACROSS NWRN INDIANA TONIGHT SHIFTING
SLOWLY EAST OVERNIGHT. FCST SHRA WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN TAFS
OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING... SOME EMBEDDED TS ALSO PSBL BUT
HELD OFF INCLUDING FOR NOW.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...JT
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1136 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015
AT THE SURFACE A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM
NEAR DETROIT TO ST. LOUIS AND THEN TO LUBBOCK TX. NORTH OF THE
FRONT EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS WAS OCCURRING ACROSS THE DVN CWA WITH
11 PM TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 59 AT FREEPORT TO 72 AT KEOKUK.
DEWPOINTS RANGED FROM THE MID 50S IN FAR NW IL TO THE LOWER 70S IN
OUR FAR SOUTHERN CWA. PATCHY FOG WAS ALSO NOTED ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL LAST NIGHT...AND WHERE DEWPOINTS
WERE IN THE 60S.
AT 1130 PM DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN IL AND WERE CREEPING UP INTO
HANCOCK AND MCDONOUGH COUNTIES...AND ALSO INTO SE IA. THIS IS IN
AN AREA OF CAPES OF 1000 J/KG AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF 1.8
INCHES...ALONG WITH CONTINUED DECENT LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. A LARGER AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS PUSHING
NORTHEAST INTO SE KS AND FAR WESTERN MO.
00Z/13 SUBJECTIVE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED A STALLED 850 MB
FRONT EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL LOWER MI TO NEAR DUBUQUE TO THE NM/TX
BORDER. A VERY JUICY AIRMASS WAS NOTED SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH
850 MB DEWPOINTS IN THE 14 TO 17C RANGE. AT 500 MB LOW PRESSURE
WAS LOCATED ALONG THE KS/NEB BORDER AND THIS IS SEEN WELL ON WATER
VAPOR MOVIE LOOPS. A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EXTENDED FROM THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE NORTHEAST UNITED
STATES.
THE LATEST HI-RES HRRR MESO MODEL INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING ACROSS OUR ROUGHLY SOUTHEAST
HALF OVERNIGHT AND THEN OVER MUCH OF THE CWA (IN A SCATTERED FASHION)
SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015
ANALYSIS AT 2 PM SHOWS ENTIRE AREA IN LOW CLOUDS WITH WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER IOWA AND DISSIPATING LOW OVER CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. DISSIPATING BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTHEAST WITH HIGHER
DEWPOINTS ARE SPAWNING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS, NOWCAST TOOLS
AND UPSTREAM ENERGY SUGGESTS SOUTHERN PLAINS ENERGY TO SLOWLY
MOVE NORTH BACK INTO REGION THE NEXT 24 PLUS HOURS FOR INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON
SATURDAY. LONGER TERM PATTERN REMAINS CONDUCIVE FOR CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION MOST OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015
SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE...FAIR TO POOR OR AVERAGE TO BELOW
AVERAGE WITH ARRIVAL OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY SUGGESTION BL TOO MOIST SO ANY PRECIPITATION MAY BE DELAYED
INTO SATURDAY MANY LOCATIONS. MINS TONIGHT MAY STILL BE A DEGREE
OR TWO TOO COOL IF LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE AS SUGGESTED. HIGHS TOMORROW
ARE BASED ON SOME PM SUNSHINE WHICH MAY NOT OCCUR ALL LOCATIONS
AND MAY NEED LOWERING BY 3 PLUS DEGREES FOR LATER SHIFTS.
TONIGHT...CLOUDY WITH POSSIBLY PATCHY LIGHT FOG AS LIGHT NE SHIFT
TO THE EAST. SOME VISIBILITIES BELOW MILES MAY BE POSSIBLE. LOWS
UPPER 50S FAR NE TO MIDDLE 60S SOUTH SECTIONS. ANY PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE SPOTTY AND LIGHT AND MOSTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...IF AT ALL.
CARRYING SLIGHT CHANCES ALL BUT FAR SOUTH SECTIONS AT THIS TIME.
SATURDAY...QUESTION OF AMOUNT OF CLEARING WITH CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON MORE LIKELY. HIGHS UPPER 70S NORTH TO MIDDLE
80S FAR SOUTH A GOOD COMPROMISE WITH NORTH SECTIONS POSSIBLY STILL
A FEW DEGREES TOO MILD IF CLOUDS CONTINUE. CHANCE POPS BY PM OF SHOWERS
AND BRIEF STORMS WITH GENERALLY ANY AMOUNTS LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND WEAK FORCING WITH POPCORN TYPE CONVECTION
SUGGESTED FROM DIURNAL HEATING.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS THE WET PATTERN
AND THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT WE WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN...CONTINUED
AND POSSIBLE NEW RIVER FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING. MAJOR QUESTIONS
REMAIN AS FAR AS SPECIFICS REGARDING THE PLACEMENT OF HEAVY RAINFALL
AND POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER.
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE BOUNDARY THAT HAD BEEN ACROSS US HAS SAGGED
SOUTH. OVERALL SYNOPTIC FLOW AND PATTERN IS WEAKER THAN IT WAS FOR
YESTERDAYS EVENT. MODEL FLOW IS CONDUCIVE TO HEAVY RAINFALL EVENTS...THIS
WITH PWATS STILL NEAR TWO INCHES....GUIDANCE IS INDICATIVE OF HEAVY
RAINFALL.
THIS SAID...I DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS ON OVERALL FORECASTABILITY AND
WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE MUCH HIGH QPF.
1. THE OVERALL SURFACE FEATURES...ALONG WITH THE H85 FLOW ARE COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS SAGGED FARTHER SOUTH. WITH A LACK
OF HEATING AND RATHER WEAK H5 VORT...ONLY A SFC LOW WOULD BRING IT
AS FAR NORTH AS THE MODELS HAVE IT. OVERALL SFC LOW IS WEAK SO FLOW
OFF THE LAKE WONT BE THAT BIG OF A PLAYER...BUT STILL WILL BE ONE NOT
RESOLVED IN THE MODELS.
2. H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND H85 LLJ DONT PROVIDE A CONSISTENT FEED
OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA LIKE IT DID YESTERDAY. IN FACT MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THE LLJ DOES NOT EVEN ENTER OUR AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
NAM ON SUN NIGHT. LOOKING AT H85 MOIST TRANS VECS...THE FLOW COMES THROUGH
AN AREA WITH ACTIVE CONVECTION. ONE HAS TO WONDER HOW THIS WILL AFFECT
THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO US. MUCAPE GRADIENT IS ACROSS OUR AREA. HOWEVER
IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THERE IS AN ILL DEFINED H85 FRONT AND SFC FRONT...I
DONT THINK THE FORCING IS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION LIKE LAST
NIGHT.
THAT SAID...CONDITION DO EXIST...ESPECIALLY THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
FOR FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA. FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SYSTEM
THIS WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...I DO NOT SEE THE SYSTEM AS ROBUST AS THE
LAST ONE WE HAD. REGARDLESS ONE CANNOT LOWER THEIR GUARD THIS WEEKEND.
SEVERE WEATHER IS ALSO POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. MANY OF THESE THREATS WILL
BE DICTATED BY MESOSCALE PROCESSES THAT MAKE THE FORECAST DIFFICULT
UNTIL THE DAY OF.
AFTER SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A SW FLOW REMAINS. THE GULF REMAINS OPEN AND
THEIR ARE RIPPLES THROUGH THE FLOW. WE ARE NOT DONE WITH THE RAIN THREAT
AND FLOODING THREAT AT ALL THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015
MAINLY IFR CONDS IN LOW STRATUS/AREAS OF LIGHT FOG THROUGH MID
MORNING ON SATURDAY AS NORTHEAST WINDS AND COPIOUS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAIN. LATER SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
CONDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME VFR AS WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAASE
SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...HAASE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1148 PM MDT FRI JUN 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT FRI JUN 12 2015
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE DATA SHOW A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA...WITH A CLOUDY SKY. RADAR
INDICATED A BAND OF LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE RAINFALL CONTINUING
NORTHWARD OVER THE NORTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES WITH A SMALL AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO AT THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH.
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON ANTICIPATE THE BAND OF RAINFALL TO
CONTINUE MOVING NORTH. NOTICED THE BAND HAS BEGUN TO MOVE FASTER
OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO. AS SUCH...MAY BE HANGING ONTO IT A BIT
TOO LONG IN THE FORECAST...BUT HAVE THE BAND TRANSLATING NORTHWARD
ACCORDING TO THE RAP 500MB WINDS WHICH SHOULD BE REPRESENTATIVE.
THE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS ARE TRYING TO BREAK SOME AHEAD OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. IF CLOUDS REMAIN MOSTLY UNBROKEN THIS WILL AFFECT
THE LONGEVITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS GOING INTO THE EVENING.
FOR EVENING THE BAND OF RAINFALL SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE AREA BEFORE
MID EVENING. MEANWHILE THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN SOME AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES AND THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE STABLE. SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS AS THE AXIS MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA. DESPITE THE LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AND DECENT
LIFT THE MODELS WERE NOT TOO CONVINCED RAIN WOULD DEVELOP.
WITH THIS IN MIND WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL CHANCES OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS BUT KEEP THEM BELOW 40 PERCENT.
AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT TAKING MOST OF ANY LINGERING RAINFALL WITH IT. THE
AREA SHOULD BE RAIN FREE BEFORE SUNRISE. BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS THE SKY WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR. THIS MAY ALLOW SOME FOG TO
DEVELOP. HOWEVER VISIBILITY FIELDS WERE NOT SUGGESTING FOG WOULD
DEVELOP SO WILL LEAVE FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST AND A SOUNDING AT YUMA
INDICATED FAIRLY DRY LOW LEVELS.
SATURDAY WILL BE DRY FOR MOST OF THE DAY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EAST OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE WARM AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST AS THE COOLER AIR ACCOMPANIES THE TROUGH
EASTWARD. DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST BRINGING WITH IT ANOTHER ROUND
OF ISOLATED STORMS TO THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA. THERE LOOKS
TO BE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SURFACE TROUGH SEPARATING THE WARMER AIR
OVER THE TR-STATE AREA BEHIND THE TROUGH FROM THE COOLER AIR EAST
OF THE AREA UNDER THE TROUGH. THIS MAY HELP PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
STORM INITIATION DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 PM MDT FRI JUN 12 2015
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...LATEST MODELS RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AT
500/700MB...AND STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST/
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS REGION...BEING STUCK IN BETWEEN THESE TWO RIDGES WILL HAVE AN
INVERTED TROUGH SET UP OVER THE AREA. FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE
WEEKEND ON THRU NEXT WEEK...THIS IS GOING TO GIVE THE ENTIRE TRI
STATE REGION THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...FURTHER
ENHANCED BY SEVERAL SHORTWAVES THAT MOVE THRU THE ZONAL FLOW TO OUR
NORTH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
REGION NEXT WEEK...WILL ALSO HELP TO ENHANCE ANY PRECIP CHANCES AS A
SURFACE FRONT THAT DEVELOPS IN TANDEM WITH THE INVERTED
TROUGH/SHORTWAVE COMBO. THE FRONT WILL END UP BECOMING STATIONARY
OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY.
TEMPS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD COULD VARY GREATLY DEPENDING ON THE
AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS FROM EXPECTED PRECIP...BUT OVERALL UPWARD
TREND IS EXPECTED AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SW WILL PROVIDE WNW DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY MIDWEEK ONWARD
GIVING THE AREA 850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM +20C TO +26C. LOOKING FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S SUNDAY INTO
TUESDAY...AND MID 80S TO MID 90S WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...WARMEST AT
END OF THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S THRU THE
MID 60S. EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION WILL BE CLOSEST TO MORE UNSTABLE
AIR FROM THE SE...SO CHANCES FOR ANY POTENTIAL SEVERE WILL BE
FOCUSED MORE SO THERE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM MDT FRI JUN 12 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH GLD POSSIBLY SEEING INTERMITTENT IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN
11Z-13Z DUE MAINLY TO LOWER CEILINGS WITH SOME DECREASE IN
VISIBILITY POSSIBLE DUE TO FOG. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z...BUT SHOULD NOT BE A PREVAILING CONDITION AT
EITHER SITE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
641 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2015
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Updated at 305 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2015
Scattered showers and thunderstorms have erupted over parts of
south-central and western KY in the warm, humid, and essentially
uncapped air mass. The storms over south-central KY are putting down
some brief heavy rain and perhaps a few brief wind gusts, but
downward CAPE (DCAPE) values are very marginal (500 J/kg or less)
due to ample atmospheric moisture and weak lapse rates aloft. Thus,
am expecting little or no microburst activity with these storms. The
cells over western KY are showing a bit better organization at this
time, and if they can hold together and move into a slightly more
favorable environment in south-central IN late this afternoon, then
a few stronger cells are possible.
Nevertheless, given a lack of organized forcing, storms will weaken/
dissipate early this evening in most areas as they continue to move
northeast. The latest HRRR even shows the cells in western KY
weakening later on as they move northeast. This will leave a mostly
clear sky south and partly cloudy sky north overnight across our
area. There could be patchy fog/haze early Sunday morning,
especially where showers occur this afternoon, but not expecting
anything widespread or dense.
Short range models in good overall agreement with a summer pattern
in store on Sunday. Mid-level ridge will continue to build to the
northwest across KY Sunday with 500 mb heights rising a bit. There
also should be a little less moisture in the atmosphere. As a
result, there will be less coverage Sunday afternoon, and south-
central KY may stay precip free other than perhaps an isolated storm
here or there. A slightly better chance for diurnal afternoon
isolated to scattered cells will occur roughly along and north of
Interstate 64 on the periphery of the upper ridge and closer to the
better stream of moisture around this ridge. Once again, any
activity should weaken Sunday evening. However, cannot rule out
isolated/scattered nocturnal cells Sunday night over southern IN,
again closer to the stream of moisture on the northern fringe of the
upper ridge.
Lows tonight should be roughly around 70 (warmer in Louisville).
Highs Sunday afternoon will top out near 90 or the lower 90s in
central KY with mid-upper 80s in southern IN. Lows Sunday night will
average in the lower 70s across the region.
.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sat June 13 2015
Warm and humid are the two most certain words for the extended
forecast for the Louisville CWA. The overall upper air pattern
changes little during the period, with a weak Bermuda High spinning
off the coast of Florida and the polar jet racing in a nearly zonal
fashion across the northern CONUS. The result of this will be an
abundance of Gulf moisture streaming north up the Mississippi
Valley, helping to fuel thunderstorms from the southern and central
Plains to the Great Lakes with any of a number of short waves
flowing through the northern jet, and catching impulses flowing
north around the Bermuda High.
Model guidance is in good agreement on this overall stagnant
pattern, but as usual, the devil is in the details. For the land
between the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, that means dry to the south,
wet to the north, and the hit-and-miss storms in between - right
over us. At least that looks to be the scenario for most of the
period. The 12Z runs are all picking up on a bit more energy
riding in from the western Gulf and breaking down the ridge on
Thursday, though. This would provide the opportunity for more
organized convection then. Regardless of the day and coverage,
though thanks to the deep moisture riding from the Gulf around the
subtropical High off the Florida coast, any storms that do develop
will be soakers, as precipitable water values will be in the 1.5"-2"
range throughout the time frame.
Temperature-wise, both daytime highs and overnight lows will be
above normal through the period, but only by 5 to as many as 10
degrees. That works out to most highs being in the mid 80s to
around 90, with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 640 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2015
Scattered showers and thunderstorms have been diminishing over the
past hour and will continue to do so. Think that any remaining
showers should mainly stay away from the terminals, so will have a
dry forecast this evening and overnight. Winds will relax over the
next hour or two as well and will be out of the south overnight
around 5-8 knots. Some light fog or haze will be possible around
daybreak at BWG.
Winds will pick back up again tomorrow morning and may become a bit
gusty in the afternoon with sustained winds around 12 knots. Most of
the storms will be suppressed by a ridge tomorrow. The best chance
for storms to impact any terminal will be at SDF, so will carry VCTS
there.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term........TWF
Long Term.........JBS
Aviation..........EER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
325 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2015
.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Updated at 305 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2015
Scattered showers and thunderstorms have erupted over parts of
south-central and western KY in the warm, humid, and essentially
uncapped air mass. The storms over south-central KY are putting down
some brief heavy rain and perhaps a few brief wind gusts, but
downward CAPE (DCAPE) values are very marginal (500 J/kg or less)
due to ample atmospheric moisture and weak lapse rates aloft. Thus,
am expecting little or no microburst activity with these storms. The
cells over western KY are showing a bit better organization at this
time, and if they can hold together and move into a slightly more
favorable environment in south-central IN late this afternoon, then
a few stronger cells are possible.
Nevertheless, given a lack of organized forcing, storms will weaken/
dissipate early this evening in most areas as they continue to move
northeast. The latest HRRR even shows the cells in western KY
weakening later on as they move northeast. This will leave a mostly
clear sky south and partly cloudy sky north overnight across our
area. There could be patchy fog/haze early Sunday morning,
especially where showers occur this afternoon, but not expecting
anything widespread or dense.
Short range models in good overall agreement with a summer pattern
in store on Sunday. Mid-level ridge will continue to build to the
northwest across KY Sunday with 500 mb heights rising a bit. There
also should be a little less moisture in the atmosphere. As a
result, there will be less coverage Sunday afternoon, and south-
central KY may stay precip free other than perhaps an isolated storm
here or there. A slightly better chance for diurnal afternoon
isolated to scattered cells will occur roughly along and north of
Interstate 64 on the periphery of the upper ridge and closer to the
better stream of moisture around this ridge. Once again, any
activity should weaken Sunday evening. However, cannot rule out
isolated/scattered nocturnal cells Sunday night over southern IN,
again closer to the stream of moisture on the northern fringe of the
upper ridge.
Lows tonight should be roughly around 70 (warmer in Louisville).
Highs Sunday afternoon will top out near 90 or the lower 90s in
central KY with mid-upper 80s in southern IN. Lows Sunday night will
average in the lower 70s across the region.
.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sat June 13 2015
Warm and humid are the two most certain words for the extended
forecast for the Louisville CWA. The overall upper air pattern
changes little during the period, with a weak Bermuda High spinning
off the coast of Florida and the polar jet racing in a nearly zonal
fashion across the northern CONUS. The result of this will be an
abundance of Gulf moisture streaming north up the Mississippi
Valley, helping to fuel thunderstorms from the southern and central
Plains to the Great Lakes with any of a number of short waves
flowing through the northern jet, and catching impulses flowing
north around the Bermuda High.
Model guidance is in good agreement on this overall stagnant
pattern, but as usual, the devil is in the details. For the land
between the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, that means dry to the south,
wet to the north, and the hit-and-miss storms in between - right
over us. At least that looks to be the scenario for most of the
period. The 12Z runs are all picking up on a bit more energy
riding in from the western Gulf and breaking down the ridge on
Thursday, though. This would provide the opportunity for more
organized convection then. Regardless of the day and coverage,
though thanks to the deep moisture riding from the Gulf around the
subtropical High off the Florida coast, any storms that do develop
will be soakers, as precipitable water values will be in the 1.5"-2"
range throughout the time frame.
Temperature-wise, both daytime highs and overnight lows will be
above normal through the period, but only by 5 to as many as 10
degrees. That works out to most highs being in the mid 80s to
around 90, with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 110 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2015
With diurnal heating ongoing, scattered showers and thunderstorms
are now developing over parts of south-central KY, and the same
should occur farther north over north-central and east-central KY
this afternoon. Thus, all 3 TAF sites will have scattered cells
nearby this afternoon, with most activity lifting north of BWG by
late afternoon. Conditions will remain VFR this afternoon, but
briefly deteriorate if a storm moves across the site. Scattered
storms will dissipate this evening leaving areas of mid-level clouds
overnight. There could be light fog or haze at BWG early Sunday
morning.
On Sunday, diurnal cumulus clouds should again develop by late
morning, with isolated storms possible in the afternoon over
northern areas.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term........TWF
Long Term.........JBS
Aviation..........TWF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
246 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP A BIT FOR RECENT OBSERVATION
AND RADAR TRENDS. THIS LED TO VERY LITTLE CHANGE ATTM.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1125 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS AS
WELL AS SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA. THE REGION REMAINS IN THE WARM
SECTOR TO THE SOUTH OF A FRONTAL ZONE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES WEST INTO THE MIDWEST AND PLAINS STATES. A WARM
AND HUMID AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN
TODAY...BUT THE NEAR TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUCH AS RECENT HRRR RUNS
AND THE 14Z RAP KEEP THE FAR SOUTHWEST DRIER TODAY AND FOCUSES
ACTIVITY FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE CWA. RATHER MEAGER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD AGAIN LIMIT
THE AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING TODAY AND OVERALL COVERAGE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 706 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
FORECAST STILL LOOKING GOOD SO FAR THIS MORNING. HOURLY
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ARE PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK WITH
FORECAST VALUES. THE LATEST OBS DATA WAS INGESTED INTO THE HOURLY
GRIDS TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS AS WELL. ASIDE FROM THE THE FORECAST
IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO FURTHER CHANGES NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION ONSET TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND THE OVERALL AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. BASED ON
THE LATEST MODEL DATA...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
WEEKEND WILL BE DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING AND A STEADY FEED OF
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE BEST TIME FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS DURING PEAK HEATING. BASED ON THE NAM12 MODEL...AN IMPULSE
OF ENERGY WILL MIGRATE AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS RIDGE TODAY...BRINGING SOME WEAK LIFT AND GULF MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. ONCE THIS BIT OF ENERGY MIGRATES NORTH OF THE
AREA...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY DROP OFF IN COVERAGE RATHER
QUICKLY. THE ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
OVERNIGHT...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FROM ROUGHLY 8Z ONWARD FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. THE BEST
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SUNDAY STAY GENERALLY NORTH OF
THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL LIKELY
BE DUE TO A SLIGHTLY WEAKER CAPPING INVERSION AND THE FACT THAT A
SLUGGISH FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY SITUATED WELL NORTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL...AS THE ENTIRE REGION REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF A MID LATITUDE CYCLONE. TODAYS HIGHS SHOULD
HAVE NO TROUBLE WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA.
CONDITIONS COULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER ON SUNDAY...AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE A BIT...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT AROUND 90.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE BULK
OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL SUPPORT THE IDEA
OF A MODERATELY STRONG SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE SETTING UP OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE NATION THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK. BY
TUESDAY...THOUGH...THIS RIDGE WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTH BY A FLOW OF
ENERGY WAVES OVER ITS NORTHERN FRINGE AND RUNNING NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER. IN ADDITION...THE GEM AND GFS SHOW A TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER
THE EASTERN SOUTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS FLATTER
IN THIS AREA. EITHER WAY...A SHALLOW TROUGH LOOKS TO MAKE ITS WAY
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY WITH ITS TRAIN OF MID LEVEL ENERGY
PASSING THROUGH KENTUCKY AS THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE WILL BE MOMENTARILY
PRESSED FURTHER SOUTH. SOME REBOUNDING IS SHOWN WITH THIS RIDGE FOR
FRIDAY BUT THE PARADE OF ENERGY PACKETS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
THROUGH THE BLUEGRASS STATE EVEN AS IT RESTRENGTHENS...MAKING MCS
AND HEAVY RAIN ACTIVITY A CONCERN FOR OUR AREA DURING THE MID AND
LATTER PARTS OF THE FORECAST. GIVEN THE GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE
FAVORED A SOLUTION FOR THE EXTENDED THAT IS A BLEND OF THE MODELS...
THOUGH ONE WHERE THE DIURNAL CYCLE DOMINATES.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A NEARBY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO START
NEXT WEEK IN WHICH THE BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THIS FRONT SETTLES FURTHER SOUTH FOR MIDWEEK AND WILL PLACE
KENTUCKY IN THE SIGHTS OF MORE ORGANIZED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...FUELED BY AMPLE MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND WARMTH BUILT BENEATH THE SOUTHERN RIDGE. THE...STILL
MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...CONVECTION WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE MORE TO
THE NORTH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
AT ANYTIME GIVEN THE PATTERN...THOUGH THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS
WILL BE CLEARLY FAVORED. WARM...HUMID...AND STORMY WILL BE THE CATCH
PHRASE THAT BEST DESCRIBES THE WX FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
THE CR GRID BLEND CAME IN DECENT WITH THE BULK OF ANY ADJUSTMENTS
MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR A DIURNAL CYCLE DOMINATED PATTERN OF CONVECTION
THROUGHOUT. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DID TWEAK THE LOWS A SMIDGEN TO
REPRESENT ONLY MINOR TERRAIN EFFECTS EACH NIGHT GIVEN THE
UPCOMING HIGH MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
THE REGION REMAINS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST...WHILE A FRONTAL ZONE
IS GENERALLY STALLED OUT NEAR OR TO THE NORTH OF THE I 70
CORRIDOR. THIS IS LEADING RATHER DEEP SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA AND TSRA SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN
TODAY...BUT DIMINISH BY 2Z OR SO. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION COULD
DEVELOP BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF THIS SOME MVFR OR
IFR RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD AFFECT SOME AREAS BETWEEN 6Z AND
DIMINISH BY 13Z OR SO. GENERALLY VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE
TAF SITES...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR OR IFR IS POSSIBLE IF
A SHOWER OR STORM DIRECTLY AFFECTS ONE OF THE TAF SITES.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1130 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1125 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS AS
WELL AS SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA. THE REGION REMAINS IN THE WARM
SECTOR TO THE SOUTH OF A FRONTAL ZONE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES WEST INTO THE MIDWEST AND PLAINS STATES. A WARM
AND HUMID AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN
TODAY...BUT THE NEAR TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUCH AS RECENT HRRR RUNS
AND THE 14Z RAP KEEP THE FAR SOUTHWEST DRIER TODAY AND FOCUSES
ACTIVITY FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE CWA. RATHER MEAGER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD AGAIN LIMIT
THE AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING TODAY AND OVERALL COVERAGE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 706 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
FORECAST STILL LOOKING GOOD SO FAR THIS MORNING. HOURLY
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ARE PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK WITH
FORECAST VALUES. THE LATEST OBS DATA WAS INGESTED INTO THE HOURLY
GRIDS TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS AS WELL. ASIDE FROM THE THE FORECAST
IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO FURTHER CHANGES NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION ONSET TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND THE OVERALL AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. BASED ON
THE LATEST MODEL DATA...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
WEEKEND WILL BE DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING AND A STEADY FEED OF
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE BEST TIME FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS DURING PEAK HEATING. BASED ON THE NAM12 MODEL...AN IMPULSE
OF ENERGY WILL MIGRATE AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS RIDGE TODAY...BRINGING SOME WEAK LIFT AND GULF MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. ONCE THIS BIT OF ENERGY MIGRATES NORTH OF THE
AREA...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY DROP OFF IN COVERAGE RATHER
QUICKLY. THE ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
OVERNIGHT...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FROM ROUGHLY 8Z ONWARD FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. THE BEST
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SUNDAY STAY GENERALLY NORTH OF
THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL LIKELY
BE DUE TO A SLIGHTLY WEAKER CAPPING INVERSION AND THE FACT THAT A
SLUGGISH FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY SITUATED WELL NORTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL...AS THE ENTIRE REGION REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF A MID LATITUDE CYCLONE. TODAYS HIGHS SHOULD
HAVE NO TROUBLE WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA.
CONDITIONS COULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER ON SUNDAY...AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE A BIT...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT AROUND 90.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE BULK
OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL SUPPORT THE IDEA
OF A MODERATELY STRONG SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE SETTING UP OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE NATION THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK. BY
TUESDAY...THOUGH...THIS RIDGE WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTH BY A FLOW OF
ENERGY WAVES OVER ITS NORTHERN FRINGE AND RUNNING NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER. IN ADDITION...THE GEM AND GFS SHOW A TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER
THE EASTERN SOUTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS FLATTER
IN THIS AREA. EITHER WAY...A SHALLOW TROUGH LOOKS TO MAKE ITS WAY
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY WITH ITS TRAIN OF MID LEVEL ENERGY
PASSING THROUGH KENTUCKY AS THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE WILL BE MOMENTARILY
PRESSED FURTHER SOUTH. SOME REBOUNDING IS SHOWN WITH THIS RIDGE FOR
FRIDAY BUT THE PARADE OF ENERGY PACKETS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
THROUGH THE BLUEGRASS STATE EVEN AS IT RESTRENGTHENS...MAKING MCS
AND HEAVY RAIN ACTIVITY A CONCERN FOR OUR AREA DURING THE MID AND
LATTER PARTS OF THE FORECAST. GIVEN THE GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE
FAVORED A SOLUTION FOR THE EXTENDED THAT IS A BLEND OF THE MODELS...
THOUGH ONE WHERE THE DIURNAL CYCLE DOMINATES.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A NEARBY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO START
NEXT WEEK IN WHICH THE BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THIS FRONT SETTLES FURTHER SOUTH FOR MIDWEEK AND WILL PLACE
KENTUCKY IN THE SIGHTS OF MORE ORGANIZED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...FUELED BY AMPLE MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND WARMTH BUILT BENEATH THE SOUTHERN RIDGE. THE...STILL
MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...CONVECTION WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE MORE TO
THE NORTH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
AT ANYTIME GIVEN THE PATTERN...THOUGH THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS
WILL BE CLEARLY FAVORED. WARM...HUMID...AND STORMY WILL BE THE CATCH
PHRASE THAT BEST DESCRIBES THE WX FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
THE CR GRID BLEND CAME IN DECENT WITH THE BULK OF ANY ADJUSTMENTS
MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR A DIURNAL CYCLE DOMINATED PATTERN OF CONVECTION
THROUGHOUT. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DID TWEAK THE LOWS A SMIDGEN TO
REPRESENT ONLY MINOR TERRAIN EFFECTS EACH NIGHT GIVEN THE
UPCOMING HIGH MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 706 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 17Z TODAY. THE TAF SITES COULD EXPERIENCE A
STRAY SHOWER OR STORM...BUT WITH ONLY LIMITED COVERAGE
EXPECTED...VCTS WAS USED IN EACH TAF TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE COMING TO AND END AT
JKL...SYM...AND SJS BY 3 OR 4Z TONIGHT...AND AT 5 OR 6Z AT LOZ AND
SME. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...EXPCEPT WHEN A
SHOWER OR STORM DIRECTLY AFFECTS ONE OF THE TAF SITES...AT WHICH
TIME MVFR OR MAYBE EVEN IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR. AN NO AMD SKD
TAF FOR SME HAS BEEN ISSUED AGAIN DUE TO THE LACK OF OBS COMING IN
FROM THE SME ASOS SINCE 2255Z YESTERDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
915 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
915 PM UPDATE...
TEMPS HV DROPPED QUICKLY ACRS NRN ZONES UNDER IDEAL RADN`L
COOLING CONDS THUS HV NO NEED TO UPDATE MIN TEMPS WITH THIS
UPDATE. UPPED HI CLDS ACRS SRN ZONES AS CIRRUS CONTS TO STREAM IN
OVR TOP OF UPR LVL RIDGE. EXPECT THESE WL LOWER AND THICKEN BUT
NOT UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK.
PREV DISCO BLO...
THE MAIN CHALLENGES THIS TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND WIND.
HIGH PRES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY. 06Z IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE W/SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
ESE FROM CANADA. THE 00Z NAM AND THE LATEST HRRR 3KM HANDLED THIS
HIGH CLOUDINESS WELL. THIS HIGH CLOUDINESS APPEARED TO BE IN
ASSOCIATION W/SHEARED VORTICITY MOVING SE FROM CANADA. THE NAM AND
HRRR 3KM MODEL SHOW SOME OF THIS CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST AREAS TODAY W/THE MAJORITY OF IT BEING THIN. FURTHER
NORTH, MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY W/A
NORTHERLY WIND IN PLACE IN LLVLS. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 70S NORTH AND WEST W/MID TO UPPER 70S
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. A SEA BREEZE LOOKS LIKE IT COULD SET UP
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST KEEPING THING COOLER SAY ALONG THE BAR
HARBOR TO MACHIAS. 00Z UA SHOWED A 30 KT JET MAX RESIDING AT
850MBS IN QUEBEC. THIS JET MAX IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. MODEL SOUNDING SHOW INVERTED V IN THE BLYR W/SOME OF
THIS WIND TO MIX DOWN TO THE SFC. THEREFORE, INCREASED THE GUSTS
BY 5 MPH TODAY PLAYING FOR GUSTS TO HIT 20 KT MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.
FOR TONIGHT, HIGH PRES WILL MOVE TO THE E W/THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION. SOUNDING DATA INDICATED DRY THROUGH THE COLUMN
W/CLEAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT W/THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO
THE REGION. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DROP OFF LESS THAN 7 MPH
W/TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK OVERNIGHT. READINGS BY DAYBREAK ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH AND WEST W/50-55
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE JET STREAM WILL BE NEAR ITS SUMMERTIME POSITION ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER WITH A BROAD RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING MAY BE TOO LATE
IN THE DAY FOR STRONG CONVECTION...HOWEVER THIS SCENARIO WILL BE
WATCHED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. SPC CURRENTLY HAS MOST OF
MAINE IN A DAY 3 OUTLOOK MARGINAL CATEGORY WITH A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS
VERMONT AND NEW HAMPSHIRE.
THIS FRONT CLEARS THE STATE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MID
JUNE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS DRY WITH HIGH PRES SLIDING JUST SOUTH OF MAINE.
HOWEVER, CLOUDS WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM. THERE REMAINS DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ON HOW
PROGRESSIVE THE PATTERN WILL BE LATE WEEK, WITH THE GFS REMAINING
ABOUT 6 HOURS OR SO AHEAD OF THE ECMWF, THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
TREND TOWARD THE GFS WITH THE 12Z RUN TODAY. GIVEN THIS TREND AND
THE OVERALL MORE CONSISTENT NATURE OF THE GFS, ANY EDITS AWAY
FROM SUPERBLEND LEANED TOWARD THE GFS. THE CANADIAN WASN`T
CONSIDERED STRONGLY LATE WEEK DUE TO IT BEING FAR MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH HAVING THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF GETTING CAUGHT UP
IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND HAVING IT POTENTIALLY IMPACTING
NEW ENGLAND AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE MODEL REASONING OUT OF THE WAY, IT LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT
FRONT PUSHES INTO NW MAINE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT FRIDAY AND CLEARS
THE CWA LATER THAT MORNING. HIGH PRES BUILDING IN BRINGS CLEARING
LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, AND LIKELY A CHILLY NIGHT FOR THE
NORTH MAINE WOODS. THE WEATHER SITUATION ON SUNDAY COULD BE
TRICKY, AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE THE REMNANTS OF THE GULF
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE REACHING THE EAST COAST. ECMWF BRINGS IT
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND PUSHES SOME RAIN INTO COASTAL
MAINE, WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT SOUTH IN THE MID-ATLANTIC. GIVEN
EARLIER MODEL DECISIONS, DECIDED TO STICK WITH GFS AND SUPERBLEND
WHICH SHOWS NO ENHANCED POPS ALONG THE COAST, BUT IT WILL BEAR
MONITORING. BOTH MODELS SHOW SOME FRONT OR LOW APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM, WHICH WAS REFLECTED IN POPS.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR EXPECTED THROUGH END OF TAF VALID TIME.
SHORT TERM: IFR OR MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TAF SITES
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS.
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TAF SITES LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES THIS TERM. SUSTAINED WINDS TO AVERAGE 10
KTS W/A FEW GUSTS OF 20 KTS EARLY TODAY FOR THE OUTER ZONE FROM
SCHOODIC POINT TO STONINGTON. SEAS OF 2-3 AWAY FROM THE INTRA-
COASTAL ZONE.
SHORT TERM: SEAS WILL APPROACH 5 FEET AND WIND GUSTS MAY HIT 25
KNOTS IN THE OUTER COASTAL ZONES ON TUESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FARRAR/MCW
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...KREDENSOR
AVIATION...FARRAR/MCW/OKULSKI
MARINE...FARRAR/MCW/OKULSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
732 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
610 PM UPDATE...
RIDGE AXIS IS PARKED OVR NW MAINE AT THIS AND WL SLIDE EAST
OVRNGT. AS IT DOES SO, THIN CIRRUS WL SPILL INTO SWRN ZONES LATE
TONIGHT AND CURRENT FCST HAS THIS WELL IN HAND. WINDS HV
DIMINISHED WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HTG, BCMG LGT/VRB AFT MIDNIGHT AND
THEN VEERING TWD DAYBREAK. MIN TEMPS STILL PROGGED TO DROP INTO
THE L/M 40S ACRS NORTH AND ARND 50 IN DOWNEAST. WL MONITOR TRENDS
THIS EVNG TO DETERMINE IF AN ADJUSTMENT UP IN MINS TONIGHT IS
NEEDED ACRS NRN ZONES. NO CHGS WITH THIS UPDATE.
PREV DISCO BLO...
THE MAIN CHALLENGES THIS TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND WIND.
HIGH PRES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY. 06Z IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE W/SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
ESE FROM CANADA. THE 00Z NAM AND THE LATEST HRRR 3KM HANDLED THIS
HIGH CLOUDINESS WELL. THIS HIGH CLOUDINESS APPEARED TO BE IN
ASSOCIATION W/SHEARED VORTICITY MOVING SE FROM CANADA. THE NAM AND
HRRR 3KM MODEL SHOW SOME OF THIS CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST AREAS TODAY W/THE MAJORITY OF IT BEING THIN. FURTHER
NORTH, MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY W/A
NORTHERLY WIND IN PLACE IN LLVLS. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 70S NORTH AND WEST W/MID TO UPPER 70S
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. A SEA BREEZE LOOKS LIKE IT COULD SET UP
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST KEEPING THING COOLER SAY ALONG THE BAR
HARBOR TO MACHIAS. 00Z UA SHOWED A 30 KT JET MAX RESIDING AT
850MBS IN QUEBEC. THIS JET MAX IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. MODEL SOUNDING SHOW INVERTED V IN THE BLYR W/SOME OF
THIS WIND TO MIX DOWN TO THE SFC. THEREFORE, INCREASED THE GUSTS
BY 5 MPH TODAY PLAYING FOR GUSTS TO HIT 20 KT MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.
FOR TONIGHT, HIGH PRES WILL MOVE TO THE E W/THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION. SOUNDING DATA INDICATED DRY THROUGH THE COLUMN
W/CLEAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT W/THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO
THE REGION. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DROP OFF LESS THAN 7 MPH
W/TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK OVERNIGHT. READINGS BY DAYBREAK ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH AND WEST W/50-55
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE JET STREAM WILL BE NEAR ITS SUMMERTIME POSITION ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER WITH A BROAD RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING MAY BE TOO LATE
IN THE DAY FOR STRONG CONVECTION...HOWEVER THIS SCENARIO WILL BE
WATCHED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. SPC CURRENTLY HAS MOST OF
MAINE IN A DAY 3 OUTLOOK MARGINAL CATEGORY WITH A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS
VERMONT AND NEW HAMPSHIRE.
THIS FRONT CLEARS THE STATE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MID
JUNE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS DRY WITH HIGH PRES SLIDING JUST SOUTH OF MAINE.
HOWEVER, CLOUDS WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM. THERE REMAINS DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ON HOW
PROGRESSIVE THE PATTERN WILL BE LATE WEEK, WITH THE GFS REMAINING
ABOUT 6 HOURS OR SO AHEAD OF THE ECMWF, THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
TREND TOWARD THE GFS WITH THE 12Z RUN TODAY. GIVEN THIS TREND AND
THE OVERALL MORE CONSISTENT NATURE OF THE GFS, ANY EDITS AWAY
FROM SUPERBLEND LEANED TOWARD THE GFS. THE CANADIAN WASN`T
CONSIDERED STRONGLY LATE WEEK DUE TO IT BEING FAR MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH HAVING THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF GETTING CAUGHT UP
IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND HAVING IT POTENTIALLY IMPACTING
NEW ENGLAND AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE MODEL REASONING OUT OF THE WAY, IT LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT
FRONT PUSHES INTO NW MAINE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT FRIDAY AND CLEARS
THE CWA LATER THAT MORNING. HIGH PRES BUILDING IN BRINGS CLEARING
LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, AND LIKELY A CHILLY NIGHT FOR THE
NORTH MAINE WOODS. THE WEATHER SITUATION ON SUNDAY COULD BE
TRICKY, AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE THE REMNANTS OF THE GULF
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE REACHING THE EAST COAST. ECMWF BRINGS IT
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND PUSHES SOME RAIN INTO COASTAL
MAINE, WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT SOUTH IN THE MID-ATLANTIC. GIVEN
EARLIER MODEL DECISIONS, DECIDED TO STICK WITH GFS AND SUPERBLEND
WHICH SHOWS NO ENHANCED POPS ALONG THE COAST, BUT IT WILL BEAR
MONITORING. BOTH MODELS SHOW SOME FRONT OR LOW APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM, WHICH WAS REFLECTED IN POPS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR EXPECTED THROUGH END OF TAF VALID TIME.
SHORT TERM: IFR OR MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TAF SITES
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS.
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TAF SITES LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES THIS TERM. SUSTAINED WINDS TO AVERAGE 10
KTS W/A FEW GUSTS OF 20 KTS EARLY TODAY FOR THE OUTER ZONE FROM
SCHOODIC POINT TO STONINGTON. SEAS OF 2-3 AWAY FROM THE INTRA-
COASTAL ZONE.
SHORT TERM: SEAS WILL APPROACH 5 FEET AND WIND GUSTS MAY HIT 25
KNOTS IN THE OUTER COASTAL ZONES ON TUESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FARRAR/MCW
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...KREDENSOR
AVIATION...FARRAR/MCW/OKULSKI
MARINE...FARRAR/MCW/OKULSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
346 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND CREST
OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW PRES MOVING QUICKLY ALONG THE
MAINE COAST. LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED RAIN PUSHING QUICKLY TO THE
E. SOME HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRED EARLIER ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL
REGION AND ALSO IN PORTIONS OF INTERIOR DOWNEAST MAINE. STRONG JET
MAX OF 60 KTS RESIDING FROM 850-700MBS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HEAVIER
RAINFALL NOW EXITING TO E. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED BEST
ENHANCEMENT ALIGNING W/THAT JET MAX NOW OVER EASTERN MAINE AND
MOVING QUICKLY E. USED A BLEND OF THE HRRR 3KM AND RAP MODEL
THROUGH 12Z. THIS BLEND SHOWS THE RAIN WILL PULLING OUT OF THE
AREA BY 6 AM W/FAR EASTERN AREAS THE LAST TO CLEAR OUT. SUNSHINE
WILL RETURN BY 8 AM W/NNW WINDS AND SOME DRYING TO TAKE PLACE. A
PLEASANT DAY COMING UP W/TEMPERATURES RISING WELL INTO THE 70S TO
AROUND 80 BY THE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT WILL FEATURE CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES W/HIGH
PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE W. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST W/50-55 FOR
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.DECIDED TO THROW IN SOME FOG FOR EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING DUE TO THE RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG WITH
LIGHT WINDS. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED. AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. LOW PRESURE WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE
IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT.
SOME PATCHY FOG COULD BRING VSBYS BRIEFLY TO MVFR BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING BUT IT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. IFR/MVFR ACROSS KBGR AND
KBHB THIS MORNING QUICKLY IMPROVING TO VFR BY 12-13Z AND HOLDING
THERE THROUGH TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG COULD ALLOW FOR BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM: VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED. WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON TO 10 TO 15 KT BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. A BRIEF PERIOD
OF 20 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE FOR THE OUTER WATERS. THE OFFSHORE
COMPONENT TO THE WIND WILL KEEP SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
106 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TRACK ACROSS COASTAL MAINE OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AND CREST OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1 AM UPDATE...RADAR SHOWING OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE CWA W/SOME
HEAVY POCKETS OF RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. SATELLITE
IR IMAGERY SHOWED 2 AREAS OF ENHANCEMENT DEVELOPING W/ONE AREA
MOVING INTO CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND THE OTHER AREA ACROSS DOWNEAST
COASTAL AREAS. THE 2 AREAS OF ENHANCEMENT WERE IN ASSOCIATION W/A
50-60 KT JET MAX FROM 850-700MBS PER THE 00Z UA. SOME IN-CLOUD
LIGHTNING STRIKES SHOWING UP ALONG GYX`S COASTAL AREAS. THE
MOVEMENT OF THIS AREA OF LIGHTING WAS TO THE NE AND SOME OF THIS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DOWNEAST COAST OVER THE NEXT 3 HRS. KEPT
TSTMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND COAST W/HEAVY
RAINFALL THE MAIN THREAT. QPF OF 0.50-0.75 INCHES WAS ADJUSTED
FURTHER TO THE EAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CONVECTION. RAIN WILL
COME TO END FAIRLY QUICKLY AS WELL DEPICTED BY THE HRRR 3KM MODEL.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DEPENDING ON ULTIMATE TRACK OF SFC LOW, IN WHICH CONSENSUS OF 12Z
GUIDANCE IS HINTING ALONG COAST, WL DETERMINE HOW MUCH THUNDER
AREAS WL BE ABLE TO SEE. NEGATIVE SHOWALTERS RMN OFFSHORE WITH VRY
MEAGER MID-LVL LR OVR LAND ZONES BUT WITH STRONG FRCG ALOFT CANNOT
RULE OUT ISOLD THUNDER. THUS HV CONFINED THUNDER TO AREAS SOUTH OF
A BANGOR- DANFORTH LINE OVRNGT WITH HVY RAIN MENTION AS FAR NORTH
AS A GREENVILLE-HOULTON LINE.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WL RANGE BTWN 0.75-1 INCH IN DOWNEAST ZONES
TONIGHT WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED ACRS THE CROWN. EXPECT SHOWERS TO
QUICKLY EXIT CWA SAT MRNG LVG A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON TAP WITH HIGHS
ONCE AGAIN ARND 80F DOWNEAST TO M70S OVR FAR NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING A CLEAR
AND SEASONABLE NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS ON SUNDAY AS
THE HIGH CRESTS OVER THE AREA. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR AS
THE HIGH BEGINS TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST. CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE ON
MONDAY AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO LIFT INTO THE REGION FROM THE RETURN
FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH AND A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY STRAY INTO WESTERN AREAS LATE
IN THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SPREADING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA AT THE
START OF THE LONG RANGE, AND 50 TO 60 POPS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH
12Z TUESDAY. POPS DROP TO 40 TO 50 FOR DAYTIME TUESDAY AS THE BULK
OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA, WITH MORE
SHOWERY PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH. REDUCED
THUNDER TO SOUTHERN ZONES ONLY, AS IT APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY
THAT THE WARM SECTOR MAY NOT REACH THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
STATE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, ALLOWING FOR CLEARING.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING LATE IN
THE WEEK, HOWEVER BOTH DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON TIMING AT THIS
POINT. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE AND WOULD HAVE
PRECIPITATION BEGIN TO WORK IN LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING
AND CLEAR BY FRIDAY NIGHT. ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER AS A RESULT OF
HAVING A 500MB CUT-OFF MOVE MUCH MORE SLOWLY OVER JAMES BAY AND
NORTHERN QUEBEC, AS OPPOSED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS IT MORE OF AN
OPEN TROUGH. LET IT RUN WITH CHANCE POPS FROM SUPERBLEND TOWARD
THE END OF THE LONG RANGE AS A RESULT OF THE DISAGREEMENT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS (FVE, CAR AND PQI)
NEXT 24 HOURS. POTENTIAL FOR MVFR AT HUL AFTER 04Z. BGR AND BHB
WILL SEE MVFR RESTRICTIONS MOVE IN BETWEEN 03Z AND 05Z THEN
QUICKLY DROP TO IFR AT TIMES IN +RA. RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
DURING THE MORNING SAT.
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR LATE MONDAY THEN IFR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY IN LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD FOLLOW FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH
CIELINGS POSSIBLY LOWERING LATE THURSDAY IN SOME SPOTS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SEAS AND WIND WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA THROUGH SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM: SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FT OR MORE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
TROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
323 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA FROM PENNSYLVANIA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT NEAR
WASHINGTON DC ON SUNDAY AND THEN MOVE BACK TO THE NORTHEAST AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES BY TO THE NORTH NONDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT TRAILING THAT LOW WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...BUT ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NORTH
WILL BRING IT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ON GOING ACTIVITY THIS AFTN...WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN VA AND ISOLATED TSTMS MVG INTO CENTRAL VA. SOME QUESTION
ON THE EXTENT OF THE PCPN THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN AS MESO MODELS
EARLIER TODAY SEEMED TO HAVE BEEN OVER DOING CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL LINGERING NORTH OF THE
MASON-DIXON LINE...WHICH WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTH BY TONIGHT.
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US WILL MINIMIZE SOUTHERN
PROGRESSION AND THE EXPECTATION THEN IS THAT FRONT WILL STALL OVER
THE REGION THRU SUN.
WITH THE FRONT STILL TO THE NORTH...THINKING ANY LATE AFTN
ACTIVITY WOULD BE THE RESULT OF WEAK SFC TROUGH STRETCHING ACROSS
THE REGION...COMBINING WITH SBCAPE VALUES OF OVER 1500 J/KG AND RE
ENFORCED WITH ENERGY ALOFT FROM A PASSING SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER
THE OH RIVER VALLEY...AS NOTED ON THE 18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ONE
CAVEAT IS THAT SPC MESOANALYSIS IS SHOWING CAPE MINIMUM OVER WV AT
THE MOMENT...AND WITH PERSISTENT MID LVL DECK...BY THE TIME THE
SHORTWAVE DOES MAKE IT INTO THE REGION...ENOUGH INSTABILITY WOULD
HAVE BEEN LOST...WEAKENING ANY IN COMING CONVECTION. 17Z HRRR IS
SUGGESTING THIS...BUT WITH A LACK OF MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVING
CAPTURED TODAY...ITS HARD TO BE CONFIDENT ON HOW FAR EAST THESE
STORMS MAKE IT. WILL KEEP SCT WORDING OF SHOWERS AND ISO TSTM IN
THIS AFTN AND INTO THE EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. IF THE STORMS
CAN HOLD TOGETHER PAST CENTRAL WV...COULD VERY WELL SEE POPS BEING
UPPED...AT LEAST WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
FOR TONIGHT...PCPN DIMINISHES. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE
VICINITY...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER SO WILL KEEP AT LEAST
SLIGHT CHC POPS IN. ANOTHER NIGHT OF ABV NORMAL LOWS...WITH TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 60S-MID 70S.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY...WITH IN
FACT THE NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK ON SPC DAY 2
OUTLOOK. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
EXTENDED NORTH-SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THINKING A
GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA HITS A DRY PERIOD IN THE MORNING...WITH
PARTIAL CLEARING WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION BY
THE AFTN. ANOTHER WARM...MOIST DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S...AND DEW
PTS IN THE LOWER 70S PUSHES SBCAPE VALUES TO BETWEEN 1500-2000
J/KG...WITH A MAXIMA EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MD DOWN TO NEAR DC
METRO AND INTO THE PIEDMONT. THIS...COMBINING WITH STRENGTHENING
UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR OF AROUND 30 KTS SHOULD RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME STRONGER TO SVR TSTMS...MAINLY AFTR 18Z AND
INTO THE EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE
STRONG-DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY HAIL. THIS THREAT WILL BE
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SUNDAY EVENING COMBINED WITH
AMPLE CAPE TO START AND SOME DECENT SHEAR SHOULD KEEP POTENTIALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GOING FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS SUNDAY
EVENING. THE SHORTWAVE DOES NOT APPEAR TO CLEAR THE AREA TIL LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING AND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED
IN THE AREA...SO WHILE STORMS WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN LATER AT
NIGHT...THE LIFT MAY KEEP SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
THE MORNING. LOWS WILL STAY SULTRY WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND.
ON MONDAY ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY/EVENING AND ONCE AGAIN SOME CAPE AND
SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT...SO ONCE AGAIN WE HAVE A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER. MAIN THREAT AGAIN APPEARS TO BE WIND. SOME
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING WE MIGHT HAVE SOME CLOUD DEBRIS ISSUES BUT
FOR THE TIME BEING HAVE NOT FACTORED THIS INTO THE FORECAST MUCH.
THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER WARM SULTRY DAY
WITH THE WEAK FRONT STUCK OVER THE AREA AND HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE HIGH 60S AND LOW 70S.
ANY STORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO MOVE EAST AND/OR DIE OUT MONDAY
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF INSOLATION AND THE SHORTWAVE HEADING
EAST...SO HAVE KEPT THE LATE NIGHT DRY. FRONT FINALLY PUSH
NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT SO LOWS AGAIN WILL BE SULTRY WITH 70S
IN MANY AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CENTER OF UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH
TUE...HELPING TO MAINTAIN CONSTANT FETCH OF MOISTURE FROM GOM.
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH CWA TUE...WHICH WILL HELP TO
GENERATE TSTMS. FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL SOMEWHERE IN OUR
AREA...WITH GREATEST TSTM CHCS CLOSER TO FRONT IN N HALF OF CWA.
MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH FAIRLY WEAK SHEAR WILL LEAD TO MORE
PULSE-TYPE TSTMS.
FRONT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE EXTENDED...MEANDERING IN AND OUT OF THE CWA. THIS WILL KEEP
TSTM CHCS IN FORECAST NEARLY EVERY DAY. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS
TO BREAKDOWN WED LEADING TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN. THIS HELPS TO INCREASE THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FLOW
ALOFT...WHICH COULD LEAD TO MORE ORGANIZED AND STRONGER CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY.
WHILE IT WILL BE HOT THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH MAX/MIN TEMPS AOA
NRML EACH DAY...NO SIGN OF EXTREME HEAT. IF YOU ARE LUCKY ENOUGH
TO BE NORTH OF THE FRONT IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS MUGGY WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE M60S...SOUTH OF THE FRONT DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN IN THE U60S/L70S.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF PERIOD. SCT SHOWERS PSBL THIS
AFTN...WITH AN ISOLATED THREAT OF THUNDER AT THE DC SITES AND
WEST. LOW CONFIDENCE OF PCPN OCCURRING AT BWI/MTN SO WILL JUST
KEEP VCSH FOR NOW. ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES FORM COULD BRING A
BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS. OTHERWISE...WINDS NW 10 KTS OR LESS.
MAINLY DRY TONIGHT-SUN...WITH LIGHT/VRB WINDS. INCRSG CHC OF
TSTMS SUN AFTN...GENERALLY AFTR 18Z. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE
SVR WITH STRONG GUSTS AND PSBL HAIL. THESE STORMS COULD ALSO BRING
A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CIGS/VIS.
SOME SHOWERS MAY ALSO LINGER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY
VFR THOUGH HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY RESULT IN SUB-VFR VIS.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM...EXCEPT IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WHERE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THRU MONDAY NIGHT. CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS THRU
THIS EVENING COULD BRING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS. ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION EXPECTED ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD BRING GUSTY WINDS AND PSBL
HAIL...MAINLY DURING THE AFTN.
WINDS MIGHT APPROACH SCA CRITERIA TUE. OTHERWISE...MARINERS SHOULD
MONITOR FORECAST AS TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY DURING THE
EXTENDED.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...RCM
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...SEARS/RCM/MSE
MARINE...SEARS/RCM/MSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
315 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA FROM PENNSYLVANIA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT NEAR
WASHINGTON DC ON SUNDAY AND THEN MOVE BACK TO THE NORTHEAST AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES BY TO THE NORTH. A COLD FRONT TRAILING
THAT LOW WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY...BUT
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NORTH WILL BRING IT
BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ON GOING ACTIVITY THIS AFTN...WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN VA AND ISOLATED TSTMS MVG INTO CENTRAL VA. SOME QUESTION
ON THE EXTENT OF THE PCPN THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN AS MESO MODELS
EARLIER TODAY SEEMED TO HAVE BEEN OVER DOING CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL LINGERING NORTH OF THE
MASON-DIXON LINE...WHICH WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTH BY TONIGHT.
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US WILL MINIMIZE SOUTHERN
PROGRESSION AND THE EXPECTATION THEN IS THAT FRONT WILL STALL OVER
THE REGION THRU SUN.
WITH THE FRONT STILL TO THE NORTH...THINKING ANY LATE AFTN
ACTIVITY WOULD BE THE RESULT OF WEAK SFC TROUGH STRETCHING ACROSS
THE REGION...COMBINING WITH SBCAPE VALUES OF OVER 1500 J/KG AND RE
ENFORCED WITH ENERGY ALOFT FROM A PASSING SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER
THE OH RIVER VALLEY...AS NOTED ON THE 18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ONE
CAVEAT IS THAT SPC MESOANALYSIS IS SHOWING CAPE MINIMUM OVER WV AT
THE MOMENT...AND WITH PERSISTENT MID LVL DECK...BY THE TIME THE
SHORTWAVE DOES MAKE IT INTO THE REGION...ENOUGH INSTABILITY WOULD
HAVE BEEN LOST...WEAKENING ANY IN COMING CONVECTION. 17Z HRRR IS
SUGGESTING THIS...BUT WITH A LACK OF MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVING
CAPTURED TODAY...ITS HARD TO BE CONFIDENT ON HOW FAR EAST THESE
STORMS MAKE IT. WILL KEEP SCT WORDING OF SHOWERS AND ISO TSTM IN
THIS AFTN AND INTO THE EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. IF THE STORMS
CAN HOLD TOGETHER PAST CENTRAL WV...COULD VERY WELL SEE POPS BEING
UPPED...AT LEAST WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
FOR TONIGHT...PCPN DIMINISHES. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE
VICINITY...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER SO WILL KEEP AT LEAST
SLIGHT CHC POPS IN. ANOTHER NIGHT OF ABV NORMAL LOWS...WITH TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 60S-MID 70S.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY...WITH IN
FACT THE NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK ON SPC DAY 2
OUTLOOK. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
EXTENDED NORTH-SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THINKING A
GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA HITS A DRY PERIOD IN THE MORNING...WITH
PARTIAL CLEARING WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION BY
THE AFTN. ANOTHER WARM...MOIST DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S...AND DEW
PTS IN THE LOWER 70S PUSHES SBCAPE VALUES TO BETWEEN 1500-2000
J/KG...WITH A MAXIMA EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MD DOWN TO NEAR DC
METRO AND INTO THE PIEDMONT. THIS...COMBINING WITH STRENGTHENING
UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR OF AROUND 30 KTS SHOULD RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME STRONGER TO SVR TSTMS...MAINLY AFTR 18Z AND
INTO THE EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE
STRONG-DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY HAIL. THIS THREAT WILL BE
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SUNDAY EVENING COMBINED WITH
AMPLE CAPE TO START AND SOME DECENT SHEAR SHOULD KEEP POTENTIALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GOING FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS SUNDAY
EVENING. THE SHORTWAVE DOES NOT APPEAR TO CLEAR THE AREA TIL LATE
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING AND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED
IN THE AREA...SO WHILE STORMS WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN LATER AT
NIGHT...THE LIFT MAY KEEP SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
THE MORNING. LOWS WILL STAY SULTRY WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND.
ON MONDAY ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY/EVENING AND ONCE AGAIN SOME CAPE AND
SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT...SO ONCE AGAIN WE HAVE A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER. MAIN THREAT AGAIN APPEARS TO BE WIND. SOME
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING WE MIGHT HAVE SOME CLOUD DEBRIS ISSUES BUT
FOR THE TIME BEING HAVE NOT FACTORED THIS INTO THE FORECAST MUCH.
THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER WARM SULTRY DAY
WITH THE WEAK FRONT STUCK OVER THE AREA AND HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE HIGH 60S AND LOW 70S.
ANY STORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO MOVE EAST AND/OR DIE OUT MONDAY
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF INSOLATION AND THE SHORTWAVE HEADING
EAST...SO HAVE KEPT THE LATE NIGHT DRY. FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED
IN THE AREA AND LOWS AGAIN WILL BE SULTRY WITH 70S IN MANY AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CENTER OF UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH
TUE...HELPING TO MAINTAIN CONSTANT FETCH OF MOISTURE FROM GOM.
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH CWA TUE...WHICH WILL HELP TO
GENERATE TSTMS. FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL SOMEWHERE IN OUR
AREA...WITH GREATEST TSTM CHCS CLOSER TO FRONT IN N HALF OF CWA.
MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH FAIRLY WEAK SHEAR WILL LEAD TO MORE
PULSE-TYPE TSTMS.
FRONT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE EXTENDED...MEANDERING IN AND OUT OF THE CWA. THIS WILL KEEP
TSTM CHCS IN FORECAST NEARLY EVERY DAY. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS
TO BREAKDOWN WED LEADING TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN. THIS HELPS TO INCREASE THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FLOW
ALOFT...WHICH COULD LEAD TO MORE ORGANIZED AND STRONGER CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY.
WHILE IT WILL BE HOT THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH MAX/MIN TEMPS AOA
NRML EACH DAY...NO SIGN OF EXTREME HEAT. IF YOU ARE LUCKY ENOUGH
TO BE NORTH OF THE FRONT IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS MUGGY WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE M60S...SOUTH OF THE FRONT DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN IN THE U60S/L70S.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF PERIOD. SCT SHOWERS PSBL THIS
AFTN...WITH AN ISOLATED THREAT OF THUNDER AT THE DC SITES AND
WEST. LOW CONFIDENCE OF PCPN OCCURRING AT BWI/MTN SO WILL JUST
KEEP VCSH FOR NOW. ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES FORM COULD BRING A
BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS. OTHERWISE...WINDS NW 10 KTS OR LESS.
MAINLY DRY TONIGHT-SUN...WITH LIGHT/VRB WINDS. INCRSG CHC OF
TSTMS SUN AFTN...GENERALLY AFTR 18Z. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE
SVR WITH STRONG GUSTS AND PSBL HAIL. THESE STORMS COULD ALSO BRING
A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CIGS/VIS.
SOME SHOWERS MAY ALSO LINGER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY
VFR THOUGH HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY RESULT IN SUB-VFR VIS.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM...EXCEPT IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WHERE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THRU MONDAY NIGHT. CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS THRU
THIS EVENING COULD BRING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS. ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION EXPECTED ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD BRING GUSTY WINDS AND PSBL
HAIL...MAINLY DURING THE AFTN.
WINDS MIGHT APPROACH SCA CRITERIA TUE. OTHERWISE...MARINERS SHOULD
MONITOR FORECAST AS TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY DURING THE
EXTENDED.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...RCM
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...SEARS/RCM/MSE
MARINE...SEARS/RCM/MSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
247 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN WISCONSIN AT THIS TIME...LEADING TO AN
AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHWEST OF ONTONAGON
SOUTHWEST INTO WEST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS (LOCATED
IN THE COMMA HEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE) WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT AND SHIFT
NORTH ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
MEANWHILE...THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL/EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING (CURRENTLY IN EASTERN WISCONSIN)
AND BE AIDING SHOWERS THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THAT AREA. THUS...HAVE
SHOWN A GRADUAL DIMINISHMENT IN THE POPS OVER THE WEST THIS
EVENING...WITH A TREND TO THE EAST WITH THE BETTER SUPPORT FROM THE
SHORTWAVE AND LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. AS THIS INITIAL PUSH OF
SHOWERS MOVES INTO THE CWA...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA (ALREADY SEEN IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN WISCONSIN WITH LOW
CEILINGS AND 2-3MI VISIBILITIES). THESE LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG WILL
REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE BEEN SEEING
DENSE FOG SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY NORTH ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE IN WISCONSIN THROUGH THE DAY AND WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...WOULD EXPECT FOG (LIKELY DENSE) TO AFFECT
NORTHWEST LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THAT TIME. THE WINDS AREN/T THE MOST
FAVORABLE...BUT WITH WATER TEMPS STILL ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S...HAVE
A FEELING THE FOG WILL REALLY EXPAND/THICKEN TONIGHT AND MAY NEED A
MARINE FOG ADVISORY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION FOG OVER THE LAND
AREAS TOO...BASED ON THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LOW CLOUDS MOVING
NORTH INTO THE AREA. ARE SEEING SOME SPECKS OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING AND THINKING THAT IS LARGELY DUE TO
DRIZZLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CLOUDS. WITH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOWING SOME WEAK LIFT WITHIN THE LOW CLOUDS...WILL SHOW PATCHY
DRIZZLE BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND THEN SHIFTING OVER JUST
THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA TOMORROW MORNING.
A SECOND SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY IN NORTHERN MISSOURI...WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE LOCATED FARTHER
TO THE SOUTHEAST AND ONLY BRUSH THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA
LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. BEHIND THAT SECOND
SHORTWAVE...THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN FEATURES...AS AN UPPER TROUGH
IS MOVING EAST THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. A LOW CENTERED NEAR
WESTERN HUDSON BAY WILL HAVE A COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTH THROUGH
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND THE EASTERN DAKOTAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW LOW THE LOW CLOUDS WILL
STICK AROUND THROUGH THE DAY AND IF ANY OF THE FOG OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL AFFECT THE SHORELINE AREAS UNDER THE LIGHT WINDS.
MODELS SEEM CONSISTENT THAT THERE WILL BE EITHER SOME BREAKS OR
SCATTERING OUT OF THE LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE WESTERN
THIRD OF THE U.P.. BUT BELIEVE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH ADDED LIFT FROM
DIURNAL HEATING AND ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO KEEP CONDITIONS
MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE EASTERN HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA. DID
LINGER SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON FROM GWINN TO NEWBERRY WITH THE ADDED LIFT AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
HOPING MODELS IN THE LONG TERM VERIFY BETTER THAN OVER THE LAST FEW
DAYS...WHEN MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN ABSOLUTELY AWFUL.
SUN NIGHT SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY...BUT DRY FOR THE MOST
PART.
MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT (RESULTING FROM A
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS CANADA) TO DURING THE DAY ON MON...WHICH IF
THAT DID OCCUR WOULD RESULT IN PRECIP MAINLY OVER LAND DURING PEAK
HEATING. WILL RUN WITH CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE...WHICH RESULTS IN
CHANCE POPS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN MON NIGHT AND TUE...RESULTING IN
PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER AND SUNNY SKIES. SHOULD BE A COOLER DAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 70 AS 850MB TEMPS WILL BE
5-8C.
LOW CONFIDENCE FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SAT AS MODELS STRUGGLE TO
HANDLE AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE THAT MAY MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN TUE
NIGHT AND WED NIGHT. ALSO...MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON THE
TIMING/STRENGTH OF A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH THAT MAY MOVE THROUGH
BETWEEN THU AND FRI NIGHT...AND WITH POSSIBLY ANOTHER WAVE NEXT SAT.
WILL JUST RUN WITH A 50/50 BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
DRY AIR IN PLACE FROM A DEPARTING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD
TO VFR CONDITIONS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. BUT A DISTURBANCE
LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH WISCONSIN WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO MAINLY KIWD THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN REFOCUS OVER THE EAST
TOWARDS EVENING. AS THESE SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA...LEADING TO RAPIDLY LOWERING
CEILINGS TO IFR OR LOWER...ALONG WITH FOG AND DRIZZLE. DO HAVE SOME
CONCERN ON HOW FAR NORTH THEY WILL MAKE IT...BUT THINK THE LOW
CEILINGS SHOULD STILL PUSH INTO KCMX OVERNIGHT. THOSE LOW
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE STARTING TO
RISE TOWARDS MVFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL LEAD TO WINDS STAYING BELOW 20KTS FOR
MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK. THE STRONGEST WIND ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON
MONDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT...BUT THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 20KTS. WARM AND MOIST AIR STREAMING NORTH INTO THE AREA TODAY
INTO SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.
EXPECT LOCALLY DENSE FOG TO OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...AIDED
BY SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT WILL FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LAKE
TONIGHT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
147 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
.AVIATION...
TRICKY FORECAST THIS CYCLE AS CEILINGS/FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL REMAIN
HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON THE PRECISE LOCATION OF A WARM FRONT THAT HAS
BEEN WOBBLING NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE REGION FOR A FEW DAYS NOW.
MOIST AIRMASS HAS ALLOWED A STRATUS DECK TO REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE
UNDER A STRONG INVERSION SO FAR TODAY. CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT SLIGHTLY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. BEST IMPROVEMENT LOOKS TO BE
AT THE DETROIT-AREA TERMINALS AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TOWARDS
THE OHIO BORDER DURING THE VERY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL LIFT ACROSS WISCONSIN THE U.P. OF MICHIGAN
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING SHOWERS (PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS) TO FILL IN ALONG THE WARM FRONT AS IT CONTINUES TO
VERY SLOWLY LIFT TOWARDS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN AND REINFORCING MVFR
CEILINGS/VIS CONDITIONS. SOME IMPROVEMENT LOOKS TO BE SEEN AGAIN BY
LATE TOMORROW MORNING ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE FRONT (FNT
SOUTHWARD)...BEFORE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
FOR DTW...MVFR CIGS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN HEIGHTS IS EXPECTED AS A WARM FRONTS LIFTS INTO FAR
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE OVERNIGHT AS
THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE EMBEDDED IN THE ACTIVITY AS WELL. WE SHOULD SEE
A BREAK IN ACTIVITY FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
SHOWERS/TSTORMS REDEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE STORMS
MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO BUILD AFTER
EARLY DAY ACTIVITY.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* MEDIUM IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH THIS EVENING...HIGH
EARLY TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
* LOW IN THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE AIRSPACE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MEDIUM FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1206 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
UPDATE...
THINKING ON POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION HAS CHANGED LITTLE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SURFACE WARM FRONT CURRENTLY LIES DRAPED ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA AND OHIO...WITH ELEVATED PORTIONS OF THE FRONT
EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN PER MODEL DATA AND 12Z
RAOBS. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVER
WESTERN MICHIGAN AS THETA-E SURGE HAS COMMENCED...BUT THEY ARE
HAVING TROUBLE MAINTAINING THEMSELVES AS THEY MOVE WEST AND INTO
THE MORE STABLE AIRMASS PROVIDED BY RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THIS RIDGE HAS ALSO ALLOWED A NICE INVERSION TO
STRENGTHEN...KEEPING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRATUS DECK LOCKED
INTO PLACE.
AS THE UPPER WAVE OVER MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN CONTINUES TO LIFT
NORTHEAST...IT WILL PULL THE WARM FRONT FURTHER NORTH INTO
MICHIGAN. LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THE SURFACE FRONT MAY LIFT TO
OR JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO BORDER BY LATE AFTERNOON...PROVIDING A
BETTER CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE OHIO
BORDER. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS SOME CLEARING SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...AND LATEST MODEL DATA DOES SHOW SOME OF THIS DRIER AIR
MAKING INROADS INTO LOWER MICHIGAN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE RAP AND 6Z NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR
JXN BUILD TALL/SKINNY CAPE VALUES UP TO ALMOST 1000 J/KG AFTER
20/21Z THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE 12Z NAM MAINTAINS A SLIGHT
CAP. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDER GOING...WITH BEST POTENTIAL
NEAR THE OHIO BORDER DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO LOWER MICHIGAN
OVERNIGHT. WATCHING SEVERAL SMALLER SHORTWAVES ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER NE/MO TO SEE IF THEY WILL TRACK INTO THE AREA.
INCREASED MOISTURE AND THESE WAVES MAY NECESSITATE AN INCREASE IN
POPS FOR TONIGHT...AND THEN HAVE FURTHER IMPLICATIONS ON OUR
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TOMORROW.
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 322 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT
THE STALLED FRONT THAT HAS BEEN PLAGUING THE REGION WILL RESIDE JUST
SOUTH OF THE MI BORDER TO START THE DAY AS RIDGING AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT BUILD OVER THE AREA. THE SFC RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES KEEPING COOL EASTERLY FLOW BENEATH A STRONG LOW
LEVEL INVERSION WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE
BEING TRAPPED WITH THE INVERSION...EXPECT THE CURRENT STRATUS DECK
TO HOLD...WHILE SLOWLY LIFTING...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
REMNANTS OF A MID LEVEL WAVE RIPPLING ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH
HAS KEPT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...ISOLATED TSTORMS...GOING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF M59. THIS ACTIVITY WILL FADE AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD AND THE FILAMENT OF VORTICITY HELPING TO
FUEL THESE SHOWERS LIFTS FURTHER NORTH DEEPER INTO AN UNFAVORABLE
AIRMASS. EYES THEN TURN TO THE NEXT WAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR OVER
NE/IA AS OF 07Z THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE WILL LIFT NE AROUND THE
RIDGE THROUGH WI/MN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING AN AREA OF SHOWERS TRACKING THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMPACT VORT MAX. QUESTION IS HOW FAR S AND E
WILL THESE SHOWERS/TSTORMS REACH? WILL BE LEANING TOWARD THE DRIER
HIRES HRRR AND ARW AS THEY ARE BOTH LOCKED ON WITH CURRENT ACTIVITY.
WILL KEEP A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA WITH
DRY CONDITIONS HOLDING OVER THE EASTERN CWA. THIS WILL MAINLY COVER
ANY STRAY SHOWERS THAT CAN SURVIVE INTO SE MI ALONG THE VORTICITY
FILAMENT LIFTING NORTHWARD. AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST OVERNIGHT...THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE AS THE TRAILING TROUGH AND
VORTICITY AXIS FOLDS INTO THE AREA. THE AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE STABLE
AS THE FRONT HANGS TO OUR SOUTH. SO WE WILL BE MAINLY DEALING WITH
SHOWERS TODAY...BUT A CHANCE OF THUNDER DOES REMAIN AS SOME
INSTABILITY DRIFTS NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN MI THROUGH THE DAY.
BIGGER THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING FOR ANY AREAS THAT CAN GET A COUPLE STORMS TO PASS
OVER...ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT HAVE HAD A FEW ROUNDS OF STORMS ALREADY
OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. PWATS WILL HOVER AT OR ABOVE 1.5 INCHES
THROUGH THE DAY...INCREASING OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM...
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST AS MAIN BAND OF UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES
SETS UP OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY ZONAL
UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. THIS WILL LEAD TO A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CONUS...WITH VARIOUS SHORTWAVES RIPPLING ALONG THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE
AND FORCING ROUNDS OF CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING FORECAST.
THE MEAN FRONTAL POSITION WILL SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE OF CONVECTION
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT RETURN NORTH THROUGH
THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST
AND HELPS ESTABLISHED THE AFOREMENTIONED ZONAL FLOW PATTERN...EXPECT
THE FRONT TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION DURING TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE THIS WILL NOT ELIMINATE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WHOLE AREA THOSE DAYS...IT WILL TEND TO
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
ANOTHER MORE NOTABLE STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL CANADA. WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN LARGELY CONFINED TO
CANADA...IT WILL ALLOW FOR HEIGHTS FALLS THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER
OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS...WITH HEIGHTS RISING DOWNSTREAM OF
THIS AREA OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL HELP
BRING THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA AND LEAD
TO A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN AGAIN BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AOA AVERAGE. WITH
AT LEAST PORTION OF THE AREA WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...EXPECT 80S TO BE COMMON FOR HIGHS BOTH DAYS WITH LOWS
WITHIN THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70. TEMPERATURES EDGE BACK INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S ON AVERAGE
NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH FOR A TIME...BUT BUILD
BACK TO AROUND 80 LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SAID BOUNDARY
SHIFTS BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA.
MARINE...
SURFACE RIDGING WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS AND LOWER WAVE HEIGHTS
TODAY BEFORE AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALLOWS FOR A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SUNDAY.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY LOOKS TO REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
AREA...WITH JUST A FEW STORMS EXPECTED OVER LAKE ST CLAIR AND
WESTERN LAKE ERIE. A WARM FRONT LIFTING BACK THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL THEN BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...WITH THE THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS ON
SUNDAY.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ361>363-
441>443-462>464.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....HLO
UPDATE.......HLO
SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....DG
MARINE.......DG
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1206 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
.UPDATE...
THINKING ON POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION HAS CHANGED LITTLE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SURFACE WARM FRONT CURRENTLY LIES DRAPED ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA AND OHIO...WITH ELEVATED PORTIONS OF THE FRONT
EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN PER MODEL DATA AND 12Z
RAOBS. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVER
WESTERN MICHIGAN AS THETA-E SURGE HAS COMMENCED...BUT THEY ARE
HAVING TROUBLE MAINTAINING THEMSELVES AS THEY MOVE WEST AND INTO
THE MORE STABLE AIRMASS PROVIDED BY RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THIS RIDGE HAS ALSO ALLOWED A NICE INVERSION TO
STRENGTHEN...KEEPING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRATUS DECK LOCKED
INTO PLACE.
AS THE UPPER WAVE OVER MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN CONTINUES TO LIFT
NORTHEAST...IT WILL PULL THE WARM FRONT FURTHER NORTH INTO
MICHIGAN. LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THE SURFACE FRONT MAY LIFT TO
OR JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO BORDER BY LATE AFTERNOON...PROVIDING A
BETTER CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE OHIO
BORDER. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS SOME CLEARING SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...AND LATEST MODEL DATA DOES SHOW SOME OF THIS DRIER AIR
MAKING INROADS INTO LOWER MICHIGAN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE RAP AND 6Z NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR
JXN BUILD TALL/SKINNY CAPE VALUES UP TO ALMOST 1000 J/KG AFTER
20/21Z THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE 12Z NAM MAINTAINS A SLIGHT
CAP. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDER GOING...WITH BEST POTENTIAL
NEAR THE OHIO BORDER DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO LOWER MICHIGAN
OVERNIGHT. WATCHING SEVERAL SMALLER SHORTWAVES ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER NE/MO TO SEE IF THEY WILL TRACK INTO THE AREA.
INCREASED MOISTURE AND THESE WAVES MAY NECESSITATE AN INCREASE IN
POPS FOR TONIGHT...AND THEN HAVE FURTHER IMPLICATIONS ON OUR
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TOMORROW.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 557 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AS A LOW STRATUS DECK WILL BE
SLOW TO LIFT TODAY...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LATE THIS EVENING...THEN MORE STRATUS TONIGHT. SOME SPOTTY IFR CIGS
MAY BE PRESENT AT 12Z BUT SHOULD NOT LAST LONG. ALL THIS AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS LOCKED UNDER A STRONG INVERSION. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BUT A LOW
LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH LAKE MI INTO NORTHERN MI WILL PRODUCE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS LATE THIS EVENING. AMPLE MOISTURE
REMAINING WITH THE MAIN WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL AGAIN BRING LOW
STRATUS BACK TO THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH SUNDAY MORNING.
FOR DTW...MVFR CIGS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A STRONG
INVERSION WILL TAKE TIME TO TRY TO MIX OUT. SHOWERS LOOK TO RETURN
LATE THIS EVENING WITH A LOW CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDER EMBEDDED
WITHIN THEM. LOW STRATUS LOOKS TO RETURN TONIGHT BEFORE THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH EARLY SUNDAY BRINGING IMPROVING CIGS.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...MEDIUM
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THEN AGAIN TONIGHT.
* LOW IN THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE AIRSPACE LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 322 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT
THE STALLED FRONT THAT HAS BEEN PLAGUING THE REGION WILL RESIDE JUST
SOUTH OF THE MI BORDER TO START THE DAY AS RIDGING AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT BUILD OVER THE AREA. THE SFC RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES KEEPING COOL EASTERLY FLOW BENEATH A STRONG LOW
LEVEL INVERSION WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE
BEING TRAPPED WITH THE INVERSION...EXPECT THE CURRENT STRATUS DECK
TO HOLD...WHILE SLOWLY LIFTING...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
REMNANTS OF A MID LEVEL WAVE RIPPLING ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH
HAS KEPT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...ISOLATED TSTORMS...GOING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF M59. THIS ACTIVITY WILL FADE AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD AND THE FILAMENT OF VORTICITY HELPING TO
FUEL THESE SHOWERS LIFTS FURTHER NORTH DEEPER INTO AN UNFAVORABLE
AIRMASS. EYES THEN TURN TO THE NEXT WAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR OVER
NE/IA AS OF 07Z THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE WILL LIFT NE AROUND THE
RIDGE THROUGH WI/MN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING AN AREA OF SHOWERS TRACKING THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMPACT VORT MAX. QUESTION IS HOW FAR S AND E
WILL THESE SHOWERS/TSTORMS REACH? WILL BE LEANING TOWARD THE DRIER
HIRES HRRR AND ARW AS THEY ARE BOTH LOCKED ON WITH CURRENT ACTIVITY.
WILL KEEP A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA WITH
DRY CONDITIONS HOLDING OVER THE EASTERN CWA. THIS WILL MAINLY COVER
ANY STRAY SHOWERS THAT CAN SURVIVE INTO SE MI ALONG THE VORTICITY
FILAMENT LIFTING NORTHWARD. AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST OVERNIGHT...THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE AS THE TRAILING TROUGH AND
VORTICITY AXIS FOLDS INTO THE AREA. THE AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE STABLE
AS THE FRONT HANGS TO OUR SOUTH. SO WE WILL BE MAINLY DEALING WITH
SHOWERS TODAY...BUT A CHANCE OF THUNDER DOES REMAIN AS SOME
INSTABILITY DRIFTS NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN MI THROUGH THE DAY.
BIGGER THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING FOR ANY AREAS THAT CAN GET A COUPLE STORMS TO PASS
OVER...ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT HAVE HAD A FEW ROUNDS OF STORMS ALREADY
OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. PWATS WILL HOVER AT OR ABOVE 1.5 INCHES
THROUGH THE DAY...INCREASING OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM...
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST AS MAIN BAND OF UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES
SETS UP OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY ZONAL
UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. THIS WILL LEAD TO A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CONUS...WITH VARIOUS SHORTWAVES RIPPLING ALONG THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE
AND FORCING ROUNDS OF CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING FORECAST.
THE MEAN FRONTAL POSITION WILL SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE OF CONVECTION
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT RETURN NORTH THROUGH
THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST
AND HELPS ESTABLISHED THE AFOREMENTIONED ZONAL FLOW PATTERN...EXPECT
THE FRONT TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION DURING TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE THIS WILL NOT ELIMINATE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WHOLE AREA THOSE DAYS...IT WILL TEND TO
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
ANOTHER MORE NOTABLE STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL CANADA. WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN LARGELY CONFINED TO
CANADA...IT WILL ALLOW FOR HEIGHTS FALLS THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER
OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS...WITH HEIGHTS RISING DOWNSTREAM OF
THIS AREA OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL HELP
BRING THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA AND LEAD
TO A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN AGAIN BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AOA AVERAGE. WITH
AT LEAST PORTION OF THE AREA WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...EXPECT 80S TO BE COMMON FOR HIGHS BOTH DAYS WITH LOWS
WITHIN THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70. TEMPERATURES EDGE BACK INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S ON AVERAGE
NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH FOR A TIME...BUT BUILD
BACK TO AROUND 80 LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SAID BOUNDARY
SHIFTS BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA.
MARINE...
SURFACE RIDGING WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS AND LOWER WAVE HEIGHTS
TODAY BEFORE AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALLOWS FOR A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SUNDAY.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY LOOKS TO REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
AREA...WITH JUST A FEW STORMS EXPECTED OVER LAKE ST CLAIR AND
WESTERN LAKE ERIE. A WARM FRONT LIFTING BACK THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL THEN BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...WITH THE THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS ON
SUNDAY.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ361>363-
441>443-462>464.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......HLO
AVIATION.....DRK
SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....DG
MARINE.......DG
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
557 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
.AVIATION...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AS A LOW STRATUS DECK WILL BE
SLOW TO LIFT TODAY...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LATE THIS EVENING...THEN MORE STRATUS TONIGHT. SOME SPOTTY IFR CIGS
MAY BE PRESENT AT 12Z BUT SHOULD NOT LAST LONG. ALL THIS AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS LOCKED UNDER A STRONG INVERSION. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BUT A LOW
LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH LAKE MI INTO NORTHERN MI WILL PRODUCE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS LATE THIS EVENING. AMPLE MOISTURE
REMAINING WITH THE MAIN WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL AGAIN BRING LOW
STRATUS BACK TO THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH SUNDAY MORNING.
FOR DTW...MVFR CIGS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A STRONG
INVERSION WILL TAKE TIME TO TRY TO MIX OUT. SHOWERS LOOK TO RETURN
LATE THIS EVENING WITH A LOW CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDER EMBEDDED
WITHIN THEM. LOW STRATUS LOOKS TO RETURN TONIGHT BEFORE THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH EARLY SUNDAY BRINGING IMPROVING CIGS.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...MEDIUM
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THEN AGAIN TONIGHT.
* LOW IN THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE AIRSPACE LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 322 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT
THE STALLED FRONT THAT HAS BEEN PLAGUING THE REGION WILL RESIDE JUST
SOUTH OF THE MI BORDER TO START THE DAY AS RIDGING AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT BUILD OVER THE AREA. THE SFC RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES KEEPING COOL EASTERLY FLOW BENEATH A STRONG LOW
LEVEL INVERSION WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE
BEING TRAPPED WITH THE INVERSION...EXPECT THE CURRENT STRATUS DECK
TO HOLD...WHILE SLOWLY LIFTING...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
REMNANTS OF A MID LEVEL WAVE RIPPLING ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH
HAS KEPT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...ISOLATED TSTORMS...GOING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF M59. THIS ACTIVITY WILL FADE AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD AND THE FILAMENT OF VORTICITY HELPING TO
FUEL THESE SHOWERS LIFTS FURTHER NORTH DEEPER INTO AN UNFAVORABLE
AIRMASS. EYES THEN TURN TO THE NEXT WAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR OVER
NE/IA AS OF 07Z THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE WILL LIFT NE AROUND THE
RIDGE THROUGH WI/MN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING AN AREA OF SHOWERS TRACKING THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMPACT VORT MAX. QUESTION IS HOW FAR S AND E
WILL THESE SHOWERS/TSTORMS REACH? WILL BE LEANING TOWARD THE DRIER
HIRES HRRR AND ARW AS THEY ARE BOTH LOCKED ON WITH CURRENT ACTIVITY.
WILL KEEP A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA WITH
DRY CONDITIONS HOLDING OVER THE EASTERN CWA. THIS WILL MAINLY COVER
ANY STRAY SHOWERS THAT CAN SURVIVE INTO SE MI ALONG THE VORTICITY
FILAMENT LIFTING NORTHWARD. AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST OVERNIGHT...THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE AS THE TRAILING TROUGH AND
VORTICITY AXIS FOLDS INTO THE AREA. THE AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE STABLE
AS THE FRONT HANGS TO OUR SOUTH. SO WE WILL BE MAINLY DEALING WITH
SHOWERS TODAY...BUT A CHANCE OF THUNDER DOES REMAIN AS SOME
INSTABILITY DRIFTS NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN MI THROUGH THE DAY.
BIGGER THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING FOR ANY AREAS THAT CAN GET A COUPLE STORMS TO PASS
OVER...ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT HAVE HAD A FEW ROUNDS OF STORMS ALREADY
OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. PWATS WILL HOVER AT OR ABOVE 1.5 INCHES
THROUGH THE DAY...INCREASING OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM...
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST AS MAIN BAND OF UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES
SETS UP OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY ZONAL
UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. THIS WILL LEAD TO A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CONUS...WITH VARIOUS SHORTWAVES RIPPLING ALONG THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE
AND FORCING ROUNDS OF CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING FORECAST.
THE MEAN FRONTAL POSITION WILL SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE OF CONVECTION
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT RETURN NORTH THROUGH
THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST
AND HELPS ESTABLISHED THE AFOREMENTIONED ZONAL FLOW PATTERN...EXPECT
THE FRONT TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION DURING TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE THIS WILL NOT ELIMINATE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WHOLE AREA THOSE DAYS...IT WILL TEND TO
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
ANOTHER MORE NOTABLE STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL CANADA. WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN LARGELY CONFINED TO
CANADA...IT WILL ALLOW FOR HEIGHTS FALLS THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER
OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS...WITH HEIGHTS RISING DOWNSTREAM OF
THIS AREA OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL HELP
BRING THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA AND LEAD
TO A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN AGAIN BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AOA AVERAGE. WITH
AT LEAST PORTION OF THE AREA WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...EXPECT 80S TO BE COMMON FOR HIGHS BOTH DAYS WITH LOWS
WITHIN THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70. TEMPERATURES EDGE BACK INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S ON AVERAGE
NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH FOR A TIME...BUT BUILD
BACK TO AROUND 80 LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SAID BOUNDARY
SHIFTS BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA.
MARINE...
SURFACE RIDGING WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS AND LOWER WAVE HEIGHTS
TODAY BEFORE AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALLOWS FOR A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SUNDAY.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY LOOKS TO REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
AREA...WITH JUST A FEW STORMS EXPECTED OVER LAKE ST CLAIR AND
WESTERN LAKE ERIE. A WARM FRONT LIFTING BACK THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL THEN BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...WITH THE THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS ON
SUNDAY.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....DRK
SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....DG
MARINE.......DG
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
322 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
.SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT
THE STALLED FRONT THAT HAS BEEN PLAGUING THE REGION WILL RESIDE JUST
SOUTH OF THE MI BORDER TO START THE DAY AS RIDGING AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT BUILD OVER THE AREA. THE SFC RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES KEEPING COOL EASTERLY FLOW BENEATH A STRONG LOW
LEVEL INVERSION WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE
BEING TRAPPED WITH THE INVERSION...EXPECT THE CURRENT STRATUS DECK
TO HOLD...WHILE SLOWLY LIFTING...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
REMNANTS OF A MID LEVEL WAVE RIPPLING ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH
HAS KEPT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...ISOLATED TSTORMS...GOING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF M59. THIS ACTIVITY WILL FADE AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD AND THE FILAMENT OF VORTICITY HELPING TO
FUEL THESE SHOWERS LIFTS FURTHER NORTH DEEPER INTO AN UNFAVORABLE
AIRMASS. EYES THEN TURN TO THE NEXT WAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR OVER
NE/IA AS OF 07Z THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE WILL LIFT NE AROUND THE
RIDGE THROUGH WI/MN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING AN AREA OF SHOWERS TRACKING THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMPACT VORT MAX. QUESTION IS HOW FAR S AND E
WILL THESE SHOWERS/TSTORMS REACH? WILL BE LEANING TOWARD THE DRIER
HIRES HRRR AND ARW AS THEY ARE BOTH LOCKED ON WITH CURRENT ACTIVITY.
WILL KEEP A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA WITH
DRY CONDITIONS HOLDING OVER THE EASTERN CWA. THIS WILL MAINLY COVER
ANY STRAY SHOWERS THAT CAN SURVIVE INTO SE MI ALONG THE VORTICITY
FILAMENT LIFTING NORTHWARD. AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST OVERNIGHT...THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE AS THE TRAILING TROUGH AND
VORTICITY AXIS FOLDS INTO THE AREA. THE AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE STABLE
AS THE FRONT HANGS TO OUR SOUTH. SO WE WILL BE MAINLY DEALING WITH
SHOWERS TODAY...BUT A CHANCE OF THUNDER DOES REMAIN AS SOME
INSTABILITY DRIFTS NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN MI THROUGH THE DAY.
BIGGER THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING FOR ANY AREAS THAT CAN GET A COUPLE STORMS TO PASS
OVER...ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT HAVE HAD A FEW ROUNDS OF STORMS ALREADY
OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. PWATS WILL HOVER AT OR ABOVE 1.5 INCHES
THROUGH THE DAY...INCREASING OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM...
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST AS MAIN BAND OF UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES
SETS UP OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY ZONAL
UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. THIS WILL LEAD TO A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CONUS...WITH VARIOUS SHORTWAVES RIPPLING ALONG THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE
AND FORCING ROUNDS OF CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING FORECAST.
THE MEAN FRONTAL POSITION WILL SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE OF CONVECTION
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT RETURN NORTH THROUGH
THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST
AND HELPS ESTABLISHED THE AFOREMENTIONED ZONAL FLOW PATTERN...EXPECT
THE FRONT TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION DURING TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE THIS WILL NOT ELIMINATE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WHOLE AREA THOSE DAYS...IT WILL TEND TO
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
ANOTHER MORE NOTABLE STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL CANADA. WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN LARGELY CONFINED TO
CANADA...IT WILL ALLOW FOR HEIGHTS FALLS THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER
OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS...WITH HEIGHTS RISING DOWNSTREAM OF
THIS AREA OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL HELP
BRING THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA AND LEAD
TO A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN AGAIN BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AOA AVERAGE. WITH
AT LEAST PORTION OF THE AREA WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...EXPECT 80S TO BE COMMON FOR HIGHS BOTH DAYS WITH LOWS
WITHIN THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70. TEMPERATURES EDGE BACK INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S ON AVERAGE
NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH FOR A TIME...BUT BUILD
BACK TO AROUND 80 LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SAID BOUNDARY
SHIFTS BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
SURFACE RIDGING WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS AND LOWER WAVE HEIGHTS
TODAY BEFORE AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALLOWS FOR A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SUNDAY.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY LOOKS TO REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
AREA...WITH JUST A FEW STORMS EXPECTED OVER LAKE ST CLAIR AND
WESTERN LAKE ERIE. A WARM FRONT LIFTING BACK THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL THEN BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...WITH THE THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS ON
SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 1202 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
MOIST LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS IN EASTERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A BROADER
REGION OF LOW STRATUS THROUGH THE MORNING PERIOD. DRIER AIR INCHING
SOUTHWARD MAY RESULT SOME PERIODIC CLEARING AT MBS...PROVIDING A
WINDOW FOR FOG FORMATION AT THIS TERMINAL. ELSEWHERE...EXPECTATIONS
REMAIN FOR CONDITIONS TO FALL INTO LOW MVFR/IFR. POCKETS OF SHOWERS
IN MVFR LIFTING THROUGH YIP/DTW WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD. EXISTING MOISTURE WILL TAKE A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY TO MIX OUT...LIKELY RESULTING A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF MVFR STRATUS THROUGHOUT SATURDAY.
FOR DTW...ONGOING SHOWERS WILL MAINTAIN A MORE CHAOTIC CEILING 06Z-
09Z WITH SOME INTERMITTENT MVFR EXPECTED. THEREAFTER...GREATER
POTENTIAL FOR IFR STRATUS CURRENTLY LINGERING JUST UPSTREAM TO FILL
ACROSS THE TERMINAL. IFR/LOW MVFR CEILING WILL SLOWLY LIFT ON
SATURDAY. VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR A THUNDERSTORM LATE SATURDAY.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...MEDIUM
INTO THE AFTERNOON.
* LOW IN THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE AIRSPACE LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....DG
MARINE.......DG
AVIATION.....MR
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
639 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING ALONG AND BEHIND A
COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHED FROM JUST EAST OF ELY INTO SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA AS OF 23Z. WE HAVE SEEN A STRONG STORM OR TWO BUT THEY
HAVE BEEN UNABLE TO GET ORGANIZED. WE EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THIS
EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. FORCING IS NOT
TOO IMPRESSIVE AND MLCAPE/MUCAPE VALUES HAVE DIMINISHED A BIT OVER
THE PAST 3 HOURS PER SPC MESOANALYSIS. WE WILL MONITOR RADAR
TRENDS FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO...THEN MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS
AS COVERAGE HAS BEEN LIMITED SO FAR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
MAIN CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM IS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES AREA OF SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM
INL TO NEAR BJI MOVING EAST. THIS AREA CONTAINED THUNDERSTORMS
EARLIER BUT HAS DECREASED IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES INTO MORE
STABLE AIR. THE CONCERN TONIGHT IS SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT 20Z...THE
FRONT EXTENDED FROM INL THROUGH BJI TO SAZ. BASED ON THE CURRENT
MOVEMENT AND MODEL FORECASTS...IT WILL MOVE THROUGH DLH SOMETIME
THIS EVENING AND OUT OF NW WI BY MONDAY MORNING. THE AREA OUT
AHEAD OF IT IN NE MN RECEIVED A FEW HOURS OF SUN TODAY AND
DUPONT`S ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. SPC MESOSCALE PAGE
INDICATES SOME INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPES OF 500-700 AND LIFTED
INDEXES OF -2 TO -3. THE HRRR INDICATES A LINE OF PRECIPITATION
WILL FORM ACROSS NORTHERN MN AROUND 21-22Z BUT FALL APART AS IT
MOVES EAST THIS EVENING. THE TWIN PORTS AND ARROWHEAD REGION MAY
SEE SOME PRECIPITATION BUT IT MAY BE WIDELY SCATTERED.
A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT
CLEARING OUT THE SKIES WEST TO EAST BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING.
THERE WILL STILL BE A LINGERING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN NW WI
MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT PASS THROUGH THAT REGION.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER MIDWEST REMAINS IN A ZONAL FLOW WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVES THAT TRANSLATE OVER THE REGION.
AN AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OVER MINNESOTA MONDAY
NIGHT...SETTLING OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL
RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS.
THE NEXT WAVE WILL TRANSLATE EAST OUT OF THE DAKOTAS AND INTO
WESTERN MN TUESDAY NIGHT...TRACKING OVER THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY.
THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS WAVE IS STILL SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN...BUT AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION...EAST ACROSS
THE ST CROIX RIVER VALLEY AND OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A COLD FRONT DROP OUT OF
CANADA AND BRINGS ANOTHER SHOT FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
WITH THE CANADIAN AIR MASS.
THE LATEST ECM/GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT WAVE WITH
AN H85 CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE EAST ALONG THE
CANADIAN/NORTH DAKOTA BORDER LATE IN THE WEEK...SWEEPING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME
FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH A
PERIOD OF MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER
SHOWERS/STORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH
THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT AND HELP SET OFF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS.
THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOPING BEHIND. GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP WITH GOOD
MIXING ON MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 56 75 47 66 / 50 10 0 0
INL 50 71 41 69 / 30 10 0 0
BRD 58 77 49 72 / 60 10 0 20
HYR 57 79 47 73 / 50 50 0 10
ASX 51 75 47 66 / 50 50 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
405 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
.DISCUSSION... THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS IS
OBVIOUSLY TOO FAR EAST THIS AFTERNOON TO LIMIT OUR LOCAL RAIN
CHANCES. CURRENTLY GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS
RIDGE IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE FOR MID JUNE AND IS WORKING WITH AMBIENT
DIURNAL INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING
NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND FLOW LEVELS
ARE SUCH THAT SOME STORMS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS WITH A
LIMITED POTENTIAL IN MOST AREAS OF WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 OR 60 MPH.
THIS THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MENTIONED IN THE HWO THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON BUT MAY BE MOST FOCUSED OVER NORTHERN
ZONES AND IN THE ARKLAMISS DELTA WHERE THE AIR MASS HAS NOT BEEN
WORKED OVER ALREADY THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER THIS EVENING EXPECT
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION TO MAINLY BE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION
WITH LOW CLOUDS BUILDING TOWARD DAWN.
THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION FOR TOMORROW LOOKS SIMILAR TO TODAY EXCEPT
FOR THE FACT THAT THE SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE WILL BE TRYING TO EXERT
ITS INFLUENCE A LITTLE MORE OVER OUR REGION. EVEN SO...MODEL
CONSENSUS STILL EXPECTS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO OUR REGION TO BE RELATIVELY STOUT...AND THIS ALONE
SHOULD ENSURE A FAIR AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS
CONSIDERING A RELATIVE LACK OF THERMAL CAPPING. TODAY CONVECTION HAS
BEEN PRETTY WIDESPREAD IN A HOMOGENEOUS FASHION BUT FOR TOMORROW THE
MORE NUMEROUS STORMS WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED WEST OF THE I-55
CORRIDOR. LIKE TODAY...SOME GUSTY STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
TOMORROW BUT IT WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TOMORROW TO MAKE AN INFORMED DECISION ON WHETHER LOW LEVEL SHEAR /
INSTABILITY COMBOS WILL BE ENOUGH TO GET MORE THAN A STRAY SEVERE
STORM. ERGO...THE HWO FOR TOMORROW LEFT CLEAR FOR NOW.
GOING INTO NEXT WORK WEEK ATTENTION WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED ON THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WHERE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE NOW IN RATHER GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TO TAKE SHAPE AND ADVANCE
TOWARD THE SE TX COAST. MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOST LIKELY BE FOCUSED WEST OF OUR REGION AND THEREFORE
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES SHOULD BECOME MORE AND MORE CONFINED TO
WESTERN ZONES AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES NOSING IN FROM THE EAST.
OF COURSE HEAT WILL BUILD A LITTLE (ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN HALF OF
ZONES) IF THE AFTERNOON SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY DOES DECREASE.
IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT A FEW MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL DISTURBANCE COMING INLAND INTO SE TX AND
THEN CURVING AROUND THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE....AND THEN REMAINING AN
INTACT ENTITY CROSSING EAST THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH. THIS SCENARIO
COULD RAMP BACK UP RAIN CHANCES FOR PORTIONS OF OUR REGION BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH IT IS A LITTLE EARLY TO HAVE MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN EVENTUAL OUTCOMES. /BB/
&&
.AVIATION...AFTER STARTING OFF THE MORNING WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO STRATUS...START OF DAYTIME MIXING HAS ALLOWED
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR OR VFR MOST LOCATIONS. MAIN FOCUS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY TSRA WITH PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE DUE TO VERY HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS. HRRR RUNS
IMPLY FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AS
MODERATELY STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW ALLOWS STORMS TO PROPAGATE AND HAVE
FAIRLY HIGH COVERAGE. HENCE HAVE AT LEAST TEMPO TSRA MOST SITES AND
WILL AMD AS NEEDED TO SHOW CATEGORICAL IMPACTS BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS. EXPECT REPEAT OF WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT DUE
TO STRATUS WITH FAIRLY SIMILAR SETUP TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED THIS
MORNING. /AEG/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 71 89 72 90 / 27 37 13 28
MERIDIAN 69 89 69 91 / 19 22 10 16
VICKSBURG 71 89 72 90 / 34 51 18 42
HATTIESBURG 72 90 71 90 / 28 43 12 37
NATCHEZ 72 86 73 88 / 36 62 19 47
GREENVILLE 72 89 72 90 / 35 51 27 31
GREENWOOD 72 90 71 91 / 29 33 19 18
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
BB/AEG/17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NWS JACKSON MS
1040 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
.UPDATE... POPS WERE UPPED 5 TO 15 PERCENTAGE POINTS IN MOST AREAS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AFTER HAVING A LOOK AT MORNING
OBSERVATIONS/MODELS AND TRENDS. 12Z RAOBS SHOW LOTS OF FLOW AND
INLAND GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON THE BACKS OF SSE LOW LEVEL WIND
VECTORS ALTHOUGH THERE ARE POCKETS OF RELATIVE DRYNESS ALOFT WHICH
MAY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AT TIMES AND IN SPOTS. THE BRUNT
OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE IS CURRENTLY FOCUSED AT A LINE
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STORMS ADVANCING SLOWLY NNE FROM
CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL LA TOWARD SE AR AND NE LA. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY HOW THIS ACTIVITY WILL EVOLVE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
AS THE HRRR IS HESITANT TO KEEP IT AS A PERSISTENT FEATURE.
HOWEVER...THIS BAND WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS IT COULD
PRESENT HEAVY RAIN ISSUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE DELTA IF IT HOLDS
TOGETHER AND STALLS. AT THIS POINT THIS LATTER RISK IS RATHER
CONDITIONAL SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE HWO CLEAR.
OTHERWISE...MAIN REASONING FOR POP RAISING TODAY WAS BECAUSE BANDS
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD EXHIBIT LOTS OF SOUTH
TO NORTH MOVEMENT AND WILL WET A LOT OF GROUND. IT MUST ALSO BE
UNDERSTOOD THAT SOME LOCATIONS COULD GET SEVERAL SHOWERS BUT
RELATIVELY LIMITED RAINFALL OWING TO THIS SAME ASPECT. BUT THOSE
LOCATIONS THAT DO GET SOLID STORMS WILL ALSO GET AT LEAST BRIEFLY
GUSTY WINDS DUE PURELY TO MOMENTUM TRANSFER. CONSIDERING TAME LAPSE
RATES ALOFT THESE CONVECTIVE GUSTS SHOULD ONLY BE A CONSIDERABLE
WORRY IF SURFACE INSTABILITY BUILDS MORE THAN IS ANTICIPATED. /BB/
&&
.AVIATION...AFTER STARTING OFF THE MORNING WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO STRATUS...START OF DAYTIME MIXING HAS ALLOWED
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR OR VFR MOST LOCATIONS. MAIN FOCUS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY TSRA WITH PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE DUE TO VERY HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS. HRRR RUNS
IMPLY FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AS
MODERATELY STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW ALLOWS STORMS TO PROPAGATE AND HAVE
FAIRLY HIGH COVERAGE. HENCE HAVE AT LEAST TEMPO TSRA MOST SITES AND
WILL AMD AS NEEDED TO SHOW CATEGORICAL IMPACTS BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS. EXPECT REPEAT OF WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT DUE
TO STRATUS WITH FAIRLY SIMILAR SETUP TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED THIS
MORNING. /AEG/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 540 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015/
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED MORNING FORECAST TO INCLUDE FOG OVER SOUTH/EAST CENTRAL
MS BASED ON RECENT OBS TRENDS. FOG SHOULD NOT PERSIST FOR LONG AFTER
SUNRISE GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW/MIXING EXPECTED. /EC/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015/
DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND A SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH
ATLANTIC STATES CONTINUES TO FORCE A VERY MOIST AIRMASS
(PRECIPITABLE WATER ~ 1.8 TO 2.2 INCHES) NORTHWARD INTO THE
ARKLAMISS REGION. WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SUBSTANTIAL LOW/MID LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO ORGANIZE SHOWERS/TSTMS ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES...CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLE
AGAIN TODAY...BUT THERE MAY BE A WESTWARD SHIFT TO THE ACTIVITY TODAY
AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO EXPAND WESTWARD AND EXERT MORE INFLUENCE INTO
EASTERN MS. TODAY`S FORECAST POPS REFLECT THIS THINKING AND FOLLOW
THE MULTITUDE OF NEAR TERM GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE SPC SSEO AND OTHER
HIGH-RES WRF GUIDANCE. POPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE UPDATED AND
INCREASED IN SOME AREAS DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS LATER THIS
MORNING.
LAPSE RATES WILL BE A HAIR STEEPER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...BUT STILL
EXPECT VERTICAL TOTALS TO BE LESS THAN 26 FOR MOST PART WITH 0-3 KM
LAPSE RATES NOT MUCH GREATER THAN 7.5 TO 8 DEG C/KM. A FEW STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF SEVERE WIND REPORTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WHERE CONVECTION IS MORE DELAYED ALLOWING FOR
GREATER DESTABILIZATION...WHICH COULD END UP BEING IN NORTHERN/
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA GIVEN THAT INITIAL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE
ALONG/SOUTH OF THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL BUT...IN SIMILAR FASHION TO YESTERDAY...STORM
MOTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY SWIFT AND UNSUPPORTIVE OF
HEAVY RAINFALL DURATIONS THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING
POTENTIAL. STORMS THAT ORIENT ALONG WEST TO EAST BOUNDARIES WILL BE
MOST LIKELY TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS.
WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER THE AREA...THERE SHOULD BE A GREATER
DIURNAL PATTERN TO THE CONVECTION WITH SHOWERS/STORMS DIMINISHING
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING FOLLOWED BY MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES
OVERNIGHT. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...EXPECT GREATER
INSTABILITY/MOISTURE TO BECOME MORE FOCUSED OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE ARKLAMISS AS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE INTENSIFIES AND EXPANDS
WESTWARD. THIS WILL MEAN DECREASING POPS FOR EASTERN MS - BUT WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINING NEAR TWO INCHES ALONG/W OF THE MS
RIVER...HAVE KEPT HIGHER POPS GOING THERE IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
AFTN. A SIMILAR THERMODYNAMIC SET-UP SHOULD YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW STRONG STORMS AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY AND CUT LOWS A BIT BASED ON
RECENT TRENDS. /EC/
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...OF INTEREST IS THE DISORGANIZED TROPICAL
WAVE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA PUSHING TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE
GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS HAS THIS WEAK WAVE PUSHING INLAND OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF COAST THEN PUSH IT NORTH INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION
DURING THE WORKWEEK. MOREOVER...THE CANADIAN MODEL HAS THIS WAVE
COMBINING WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE FOR A LITTLE BETTER AMPLIFICATION
AND INCREASED LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW (~25-40 KNOTS) HELPING TO BRING
SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL GENERALLY WEST OF THE MS RIVER.
THE ECMWF MODEL HAS A WEAKER SHEAR AXIS LOCATED FARTHER WEST THROUGH
CENTRAL TEXAS.
A PLUME OF MOISTURE WITH PWATS AROUND 2.3 INCHES WILL SURGE ACROSS
THE WEST PORTION OF THE REGION...WHICH WILL PUSH THE DRIER AIR EAST
OF THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL OF EFFICIENT LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE WEST. THE GFS LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR EAST WITH
THE HIGHER PWATS. MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING THE BEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
DOWN AROUND THE COASTAL AREAS. THIS IS THE FIRST MODEL RUN SHOWING
THIS WAVE SO WELL IN THE LOW TO MIDLEVELS AS FAR AS JET ENERGY IS
CONCERNED. EXPECT MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION FOR THE PERIOD.
SO WITH THIS IN MIND WILL KEEP THE HWO CLEAR FOR NOW SINCE THE ECMWF
WAS FARTHER WEST WITH THE BETTER JET DYNAMICS. WILL WATCH FOR FUTURE
MODEL RUNS WITH THIS FEATURE./17/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 89 72 89 71 / 70 25 41 13
MERIDIAN 90 69 90 69 / 57 21 28 8
VICKSBURG 90 72 89 73 / 70 29 59 18
HATTIESBURG 89 72 90 72 / 70 31 45 11
NATCHEZ 88 73 88 72 / 68 31 60 19
GREENVILLE 91 73 90 72 / 69 33 54 24
GREENWOOD 91 72 90 72 / 59 30 36 15
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
BB/AEG/EC/17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
540 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED MORNING FORECAST TO INCLUDE FOG OVER SOUTH/EAST CENTRAL
MS BASED ON RECENT OBS TRENDS. FOG SHOULD NOT PERSIST FOR LONG AFTER
SUNRISE GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW/MIXING EXPECTED. /EC/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015/
DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND A SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH
ATLANTIC STATES CONTINUES TO FORCE A VERY MOIST AIRMASS
(PRECIPITABLE WATER ~ 1.8 TO 2.2 INCHES) NORTHWARD INTO THE
ARKLAMISS REGION. WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SUBSTANTIAL LOW/MID LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO ORGANIZE SHOWERS/TSTMS ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES...CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLE
AGAIN TODAY...BUT THERE MAY BE A WESTWARD SHIFT TO THE ACTIVITY TODAY
AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO EXPAND WESTWARD AND EXERT MORE INFLUENCE INTO
EASTERN MS. TODAY`S FORECAST POPS REFLECT THIS THINKING AND FOLLOW
THE MULTITUDE OF NEAR TERM GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE SPC SSEO AND OTHER
HIGH-RES WRF GUIDANCE. POPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE UPDATED AND
INCREASED IN SOME AREAS DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS LATER THIS
MORNING.
LAPSE RATES WILL BE A HAIR STEEPER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...BUT STILL
EXPECT VERTICAL TOTALS TO BE LESS THAN 26 FOR MOST PART WITH 0-3 KM
LAPSE RATES NOT MUCH GREATER THAN 7.5 TO 8 DEG C/KM. A FEW STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF SEVERE WIND REPORTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WHERE CONVECTION IS MORE DELAYED ALLOWING FOR
GREATER DESTABILIZATION...WHICH COULD END UP BEING IN NORTHERN/
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA GIVEN THAT INITIAL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE
ALONG/SOUTH OF THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL BUT...IN SIMILAR FASHION TO YESTERDAY...STORM
MOTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY SWIFT AND UNSUPPORTIVE OF
HEAVY RAINFALL DURATIONS THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING
POTENTIAL. STORMS THAT ORIENT ALONG WEST TO EAST BOUNDARIES WILL BE
MOST LIKELY TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS.
WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER THE AREA...THERE SHOULD BE A GREATER
DIURNAL PATTERN TO THE CONVECTION WITH SHOWERS/STORMS DIMINISHING
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING FOLLOWED BY MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES
OVERNIGHT. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...EXPECT GREATER
INSTABILITY/MOISTURE TO BECOME MORE FOCUSED OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE ARKLAMISS AS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE INTENSIFIES AND EXPANDS
WESTWARD. THIS WILL MEAN DECREASING POPS FOR EASTERN MS - BUT WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINING NEAR TWO INCHES ALONG/W OF THE MS
RIVER...HAVE KEPT HIGHER POPS GOING THERE IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
AFTN. A SIMILAR THERMODYNAMIC SET-UP SHOULD YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW STRONG STORMS AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY AND CUT LOWS A BIT BASED ON
RECENT TRENDS. /EC/
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...OF INTEREST IS THE DISORGANIZED TROPICAL
WAVE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA PUSHING TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE
GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS HAS THIS WEAK WAVE PUSHING INLAND OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF COAST THEN PUSH IT NORTH INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION
DURING THE WORKWEEK. MOREOVER...THE CANADIAN MODEL HAS THIS WAVE
COMBINING WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE FOR A LITTLE BETTER AMPLIFICATION
AND INCREASED LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW (~25-40 KNOTS) HELPING TO BRING
SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL GENERALLY WEST OF THE MS RIVER.
THE ECMWF MODEL HAS A WEAKER SHEAR AXIS LOCATED FARTHER WEST THROUGH
CENTRAL TEXAS.
A PLUME OF MOISTURE WITH PWATS AROUND 2.3 INCHES WILL SURGE ACROSS
THE WEST PORTION OF THE REGION...WHICH WILL PUSH THE DRIER AIR EAST
OF THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL OF EFFICIENT LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE WEST. THE GFS LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR EAST WITH
THE HIGHER PWATS. MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING THE BEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
DOWN AROUND THE COASTAL AREAS. THIS IS THE FIRST MODEL RUN SHOWING
THIS WAVE SO WELL IN THE LOW TO MIDLEVELS AS FAR AS JET ENERGY IS
CONCERNED. EXPECT MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION FOR THE PERIOD.
SO WITH THIS IN MIND WILL KEEP THE HWO CLEAR FOR NOW SINCE THE ECMWF
WAS FARTHER WEST WITH THE BETTER JET DYNAMICS. WILL WATCH FOR FUTURE
MODEL RUNS WITH THIS FEATURE./17/
AVIATION...VERY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A RATHER
PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEKEND WITH LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING IFR/MVFR STRATUS AND MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED. LOCALIZED AREAS OF LIFR CATEGORY STRATUS SHOULD
OCCUR...PARTICULARLY IN THE PINE BELT REGION WHERE THE HRRR HINTS AT
SOME FOG POTENTIAL AS WELL. IT APPEARS THAT FLOW WILL BE JUST STRONG
ENOUGH TO KEEP STRATUS OFF THE GROUND...BUT VERY LOW CIGS WILL STILL
BE A CONCERN. /EC/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 89 72 89 71 / 52 25 41 13
MERIDIAN 90 69 90 69 / 43 21 28 8
VICKSBURG 90 72 89 73 / 52 29 59 18
HATTIESBURG 89 72 90 72 / 52 31 45 11
NATCHEZ 88 73 88 72 / 61 31 60 19
GREENVILLE 91 73 90 72 / 48 33 54 24
GREENWOOD 91 72 90 72 / 44 30 36 15
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
JAN/JAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
425 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND A SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH
ATLANTIC STATES CONTINUES TO FORCE A VERY MOIST AIRMASS
(PRECIPITABLE WATER ~ 1.8 TO 2.2 INCHES) NORTHWARD INTO THE
ARKLAMISS REGION. WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SUBSTANTIAL LOW/MID LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO ORGANIZE SHOWERS/TSTMS ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES...CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLE
AGAIN TODAY...BUT THERE MAY BE A WESTWARD SHIFT TO THE ACTIVITY TODAY
AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO EXPAND WESTWARD AND EXERT MORE INFLUENCE INTO
EASTERN MS. TODAY`S FORECAST POPS REFLECT THIS THINKING AND FOLLOW
THE MULTITUDE OF NEAR TERM GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE SPC SSEO AND OTHER
HIGH-RES WRF GUIDANCE. POPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE UPDATED AND
INCREASED IN SOME AREAS DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS LATER THIS
MORNING.
LAPSE RATES WILL BE A HAIR STEEPER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...BUT STILL
EXPECT VERTICAL TOTALS TO BE LESS THAN 26 FOR MOST PART WITH 0-3 KM
LAPSE RATES NOT MUCH GREATER THAN 7.5 TO 8 DEG C/KM. A FEW STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF SEVERE WIND REPORTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WHERE CONVECTION IS MORE DELAYED ALLOWING FOR
GREATER DESTABILIZATION...WHICH COULD END UP BEING IN NORTHERN/
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA GIVEN THAT INITIAL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE
ALONG/SOUTH OF THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL BUT...IN SIMILAR FASHION TO YESTERDAY...STORM
MOTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY SWIFT AND UNSUPPORTIVE OF
HEAVY RAINFALL DURATIONS THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING
POTENTIAL. STORMS THAT ORIENT ALONG WEST TO EAST BOUNDARIES WILL BE
MOST LIKELY TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS.
WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER THE AREA...THERE SHOULD BE A GREATER
DIURNAL PATTERN TO THE CONVECTION WITH SHOWERS/STORMS DIMINISHING
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING FOLLOWED BY MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES
OVERNIGHT. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...EXPECT GREATER
INSTABILITY/MOISTURE TO BECOME MORE FOCUSED OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE ARKLAMISS AS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE INTENSIFIES AND EXPANDS
WESTWARD. THIS WILL MEAN DECREASING POPS FOR EASTERN MS - BUT WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINING NEAR TWO INCHES ALONG/W OF THE MS
RIVER...HAVE KEPT HIGHER POPS GOING THERE IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
AFTN. A SIMILAR THERMODYNAMIC SET-UP SHOULD YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW STRONG STORMS AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY AND CUT LOWS A BIT BASED ON
RECENT TRENDS. /EC/
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...OF INTEREST IS THE DISORGANIZED TROPICAL
WAVE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA PUSHING TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE
GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS HAS THIS WEAK WAVE PUSHING INLAND OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF COAST THEN PUSH IT NORTH INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION
DURING THE WORKWEEK. MOREOVER...THE CANADIAN MODEL HAS THIS WAVE
COMBINING WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE FOR A LITTLE BETTER AMPLIFICATION
AND INCREASED LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW (~25-40 KNOTS) HELPING TO BRING
SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL GENERALLY WEST OF THE MS RIVER.
THE ECMWF MODEL HAS A WEAKER SHEAR AXIS LOCATED FARTHER WEST THROUGH
CENTRAL TEXAS.
A PLUME OF MOISTURE WITH PWATS AROUND 2.3 INCHES WILL SURGE ACROSS
THE WEST PORTION OF THE REGION...WHICH WILL PUSH THE DRIER AIR EAST
OF THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL OF EFFICIENT LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE WEST. THE GFS LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR EAST WITH
THE HIGHER PWATS. MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING THE BEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
DOWN AROUND THE COASTAL AREAS. THIS IS THE FIRST MODEL RUN SHOWING
THIS WAVE SO WELL IN THE LOW TO MIDLEVELS AS FAR AS JET ENERGY IS
CONCERNED. EXPECT MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION FOR THE PERIOD.
SO WITH THIS IN MIND WILL KEEP THE HWO CLEAR FOR NOW SINCE THE ECMWF
WAS FARTHER WEST WITH THE BETTER JET DYNAMICS. WILL WATCH FOR FUTURE
MODEL RUNS WITH THIS FEATURE./17/
&&
.AVIATION...VERY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A RATHER
PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEKEND WITH LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING IFR/MVFR STRATUS AND MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED. LOCALIZED AREAS OF LIFR CATEGORY STRATUS SHOULD
OCCUR...PARTICULARLY IN THE PINE BELT REGION WHERE THE HRRR HINTS AT
SOME FOG POTENTIAL AS WELL. IT APPEARS THAT FLOW WILL BE JUST STRONG
ENOUGH TO KEEP STRATUS OFF THE GROUND...BUT VERY LOW CIGS WILL STILL
BE A CONCERN. /EC/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 89 72 89 71 / 52 25 41 13
MERIDIAN 90 69 90 69 / 43 21 28 8
VICKSBURG 90 72 89 73 / 52 29 59 18
HATTIESBURG 89 72 90 72 / 52 31 45 11
NATCHEZ 88 73 88 72 / 61 31 60 19
GREENVILLE 91 73 90 72 / 48 33 54 24
GREENWOOD 91 72 90 72 / 44 30 36 15
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
EC/17/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1001 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2015
.UPDATE:
Issued at 1001 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2015
Still expecting scattered showers and thunderstorms the rest of
the night over the area. Currently there is one area moving east
from central Missouri and another moving north from south central
Missouri. Latest runs of the RAP show pockets of low level
moisture convergence over the region throughout the night which
justifies the continued chance. Otherwise, do expect much fall in
temperatures as current readings are close to the dewpoints.
Conditions will remain very humid.
Britt
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2015
Diurnal heating of the very moist air mass across the region has
yielded SBCAPES of 2000-2500 J/KG this afternoon and scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms. Anomalously high water content
with PWs above 90th percentile at 1.8+ inches is resulting in very
efficient rainfall production and have seen a few reports of rates
in excess of 4 in/hr, however longevity has been only on the order
of less than 30 minutes given scattered coverage. There are no
evident upper level features aiding current storms, thus expect
them to follow a strong diurnally driven cycle with coverage
rapidly decreasing early this evening. From the later evening into
the overnight hours have dramatically reduced pops the southern
half of the CWA and highest in the chance range across the northeast
third of the CWA along the periphery of the stronger southwesterly
and slightly confluent low level flow.
Glass
.LONG TERM: (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2015
A very wet pattern is still in the offing for the upcoming week
with the best apparent time frame for widespread heavy rainfall
in the Tuesday-Wednesday Night time frame. A sw-ne oriented cold
front will be encroaching on the northern CWA on Monday afternoon
and slowly progressing southward Monday night into Tuesday when
best indications are it will become quasi-stationary bi-secting
the CWA. Meanwhile during this same time frame, a steady series
of weak disturbances within the sw flow aloft on the periphery of
the upper level high, combined with the moisture rich/buoyant air
mass across the region and the front will result in increasingly
widespread showers and thunderstorms. Instability and deep layer
shear across the region on Monday afternoon and early evening will
be sufficient for possible pulse storms and multicell clusters
with a damaging wind threat, while the high moisture content will
continue to support heavy downpours.
Will probably eventually need a flash flood watch in the
aforementioned Tuesday-Wednesday night period. Unknown is the
impact of current TD#1 near the Yucatan. Models diverge on the
speed and location but the general consensus is this will strengthen
and track NW into TX then track north with the remnant low moving
northeast along the periphery of the upper high centered in the
southeastern U.S.. A general range of solutions has the center
generally moving across southeast MO and southern IL on Thursday
with greatest impacts along and to the right of the center. High
level moisture however will provide a boost to the already high
H2O content in the midweek time frame and the aforementioned heavy
rainfall potential.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1114 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2015
Overall pattern remains the same although any remants of a surfae
have moved north of the area, along the MO/IA border with a
continued northward movement. Fairly strong short wave kicking
north from the TX panhandle may provide a little extra upper air
support the next 24 hours. Radar shows scattered TSRA already
forming across MO. VCTS for the most part with tempo`s as the rain
approaches a terminal. GFS beings precip back to almost all of north
MO from 06 12z. THe NAM also but more of a St. Joe to Kirksville
line. May put a VCTS in UIN about 08z to cover this possibility.
Specifics for KSTL: Pretty much more of the same. Scattered TSRA
already developing across MO so at least a VCTS will be in the
terminal at issuance time. Will add tempo`s as the rain
approaches. Looks like most of the overnight chances will be north
of STL so will leave it dry after about 03z. For now will bring in
a VCTS again for Monday afternoon. A front begins moving into the
state Monday afternoon so that my become the focus down the road.
JPK
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
339 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2015
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 339 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
Off-and-on wet weather continues this weekend and into next week with
weak southwesterly upper flow and a steady stream of Gulf moisture
into the region. Unfortunately in this ill-defined pattern it`s
difficult to pinpoint where and when any weak disturbances could
focus the heaviest rainfall. This is complicated even further by the
presence of occasional convective complexes which can modify mass
fields and throw models for a loop. Such a complex has developed
early this morning over Oklahoma and has kept the heaviest
precipitation focused further south than models have indicated.
Depending on how strong subsidence is behind this system, there could
be some redevelopment of showers and storms this morning and into the
afternoon across KS and into western MO where a deamplifying upper
trough should provide some enhanced ascent. However without a
concentrated source of deep lift it doesn`t appear likely that
flooding rains or strong storms will be much of an issue today, at
least not through this evening.
More showers and storms are possible later tonight and into Sunday,
and perhaps again Sunday night into Monday, but again this depends on
where/if the low-level jet can serve as a focusing mechanism and
whether any mid-level disturbances can drift into the area, something
which could be heavily influenced by upstream convection. Locally
heavy rainfall is a possibility either day especially if the airmass
can sufficiently destabilize during the afternoon and if the low-
level jet becomes focused over the forecast area. Since uncertainty
is too high in this muddy pattern (pun intended) we won`t hoist any
flood watches at this time.
Steady stream of moisture and occasional storm chances continues
into the middle of next week, although a slight shift in upper-level
winds could shunt the highest chances slightly east of the forecast
area. GFS even wants to add tropical cyclone remnants into the
mix, as if this forecast needed even more uncertainty thrown at it, but
this seems pretty unlikely. At this point the best bet for a dry day
looks to be Wednesday and/or Thursday although that can certainly
change in this pattern.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1203 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
Area of showers and embedded thunderstorms expected to lift northeast
across eastern KS/west central MO during the early morning hours.
Latest HRRR and 00z NAM seem reasonable with the rain lasting through
late morning although there may be some intermittent breaks.
Expecting mainly VFR ceilings although MVFR ceilings will likely
coincide with any of the heavier embedded showers.
While scattered convection is expected to affect eastern KS as well
as northern and west central MO during the afternoon will stick with
vicinity wording and wait for the next forecast cycle to try to pin
timing down. Otherwise, anticipate more widespread showers and
thunderstorms with heavy rains possible Saturday evening.
Light winds will gradually veer to the southeast and then south
during the forecast period.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1218 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 400 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015
The heavy rain threat will be the main forecast challenge
through the weekend driven by the combination of a surface boundary
in the vicinity and a series of upper level waves rotating through a slow
moving upper trough. Main surface boundary currently draped across
far southern part of forecast area. Some breaks in the cloud cover
have allowed temperatures to warm into the middle 80s along the
boundary while in northwest Missouri temperatures have struggled to
get out of the 60s. The front is providing a focal point for scattered
convection driven by diurnal heating. This activity should diminish
over the forecast area later this evening.
Strengthen LLJ tonight will focus MCS initiation over southern Kansas
and northern Oklahoma tonight. Convective system forecast by high
resolution short term models to move into forecast area after
midnight. During the day on Saturday the surface boundary should work
further north. The highest threat for heavy rainfall appears to be on
Saturday night/Sunday as LLJ once again strengthens after sunset.
This time however the jet is a bit stronger and focused closer to the
forecast area.
Depending on how convection evolves Saturday Night/Sunday morning the
boundary will likely still be in or around the forecast area during
the day Sunday. Convection will remain possible through the day
Sunday with a similar MCS scenario possible on Sunday night.
After coordination with surrounding offices have decided to hold off
on flash flood watch for now. Best threat for heavy rain appears to
be late in the weekend and there are still some questions regarding
timing and location of heavy rain.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 400 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015
Thunderstorm chances will continue early next week as the surface
boundary lingers across central MO and a series of weak shortwave
troughs advance out into the Plains, reinforcing precipitation
chances. Currently, the heaviest rainfall looks like it will focus
mainly south of I-70 given the position of the front, but changes
are definitely possible depending on how convection the previous
days pans out. Severe weather chances will be marginal each day with
the boundary in the area serving as a focus for convection and
adequate instability for storms, but weak shear and complications
from cloud cover/morning convection. Widespread precipitation will
also likely hold high temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s most
days, although spikes in temperature are possible if sufficient
clearing occurs any of the days.
Precipitation chances should taper off but not end altogether as
upper level flow flattens and gradually turns more to the northwest,
keeping many of the upper-level disturbances north of the forecast
area. However, the boundary may not completely shift out of the
region, and storm chances will be non-zero beyond the end of the
period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1203 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
Area of showers and embedded thunderstorms expected to lift northeast
across eastern KS/west central MO during the early morning hours.
Latest HRRR and 00z NAM seem reasonable with the rain lasting through
late morning although there may be some intermittent breaks.
Expecting mainly VFR ceilings although MVFR ceilings will likely
coincide with any of the heavier embedded showers.
While scattered convection is expected to affect eastern KS as well
as northern and west central MO during the afternoon will stick with
vicinity wording and wait for the next forecast cycle to try to pin
timing down. Otherwise, anticipate more widespread showers and
thunderstorms with heavy rains possible Saturday evening.
Light winds will gradually veer to the southeast and then south
during the forecast period.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Mitchell
LONG TERM...Laflin
AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
856 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.UPDATE...
UPSLOPE FLOW KEEPING A PERSISTENT LOWER CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS OF THE BEARTOOTHS AND BIG HORNS THIS EVENING. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WAS QUITE SPOTTY EARLY THIS EVENING NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN.
THERE IS A WEAK DISTURBANCE TO THE WEST STRETCHED ACROSS OREGON
AND IDAHO THAT WILL TRACK OVER OUR FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. ALL MODELS AGREE IN DEVELOPING SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS FEATURE OVER OUR
MAINLY OUR CENTRAL ZONES. LATEST RAP PROGGS SHOW INCREASING LAPSE
RATES OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS WITH APPROACH OF DISTURBANCE
LATER TONIGHT. DECIDED TO EXPAND THE AREAL COVERAGE OF POPS A BIT
WITH THIS UPDATE. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. BT
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...
SHOWERS LOOK TO REMAIN MAINLY N OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...AS SEEN ON RADAR IMAGERY...DUE TO LITTLE SOUTHWARD
PROGRESS OF THE 700 MB FRONT...AND THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THIS AREA. MESOANALYSIS SHOWED LITTLE CAPE OVER THE AREA WITH JUST
A FEW HIGHER VALUES OVER/NEAR THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE 700 MB FRONT WILL
REMAIN STATIONARY...BUT ONLY WEAK FRONTOGENESIS WAS FORECAST ALONG
IT. THE WAVES OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN AS WELL. ONLY CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE IN UPSLOPE AREAS DUE TO 850
MB E FLOW. ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT ON THE 305 K
THETA SURFACE. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO
BIG HORN AND SHERIDAN COUNTIES. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN
THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING DUE TO STEEP MID AND UPPER LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. ADDED PATCHY FOG ACROSS W AND S AREAS WHERE HUMIDITIES WILL
BE HIGH OVERNIGHT.
SLIGHT UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON MON AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION. THE SREF HAD A
CHANCE OF 500-1000 J/KG OF CAPE OVER THE SW MOUNTAINS MON
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS WELL AS 40 KT OF POSSIBLE SHEAR. HAD
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA MON AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS THE S. MIXING WILL BE LIMITED ON MON
WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 DEGREES. A COUPLED JET WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MON NIGHT PROVIDING JET DIVERGENCE...AND
A WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. PRECIPITABLE WATERS WILL
CREEP UP TO AN INCH AGAIN OVER THE CENTRAL AND E LATE MON NIGHT
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ALSO CONTINUE. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DO
NOT LOOK AS LIKELY FOR MON AND MON NIGHT AS THEY DID ON PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS. HAD POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS
THE S IN THE EVENING. SHIFTED HIGHEST POPS TO THE E AFTER 06Z AS
BEST FORCING MOVES E.
LIFT FROM THE LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT OF THE COUPLED JET WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUE EVENING. WEAK WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND
PRECIPITABLE WATERS REMAIN HIGH THROUGH 00Z WED. SREF HAD 500 J/KG
CAPES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH TUE EVENING...WITH AROUND
1000 J/KG POSSIBLE OVER THE S. 40 KT OF SHEAR WAS ALSO POSSIBLE
MAINLY OVER THE S. CONTINUED HIGH POPS OVER THE E TUE
MORNING...THEN POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MIXING WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED
AGAIN SO HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE TUE NIGHT. A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ARTHUR
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...
WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY DRY DAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE TRACKS
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A BIT OF MOISTURE WILL
BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS FOR SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION BUT BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA FROM THE NORTH.
FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO BECOME A BIT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY
BUT MOISTURE SEEMS LIMITED DUE TO A PERIOD OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW BUT
COULD BE DEEPER ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER. THIS SETS UP A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN MONTANA POSSIBLY GLANCING
THE AREAS NORTH OF THE MUSSELSHELL RIVER. THIS ACTIVITY PULLS THE
BETTER MOISTURE EASTWARD AND LEAVES THE AREA FAIRLY DRY FOR FRIDAY
MORNING BUT THERE IS A PUSH OF MOISTURE FROM THE WEST IN THE MID
LEVELS WHICH COULD SUPPORT THUNDER OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND THEN
IMPACT THE PLAINS FRIDAY EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT STRONG HOW THE
FRIDAY CONVECTION WILL UNFOLD SINCE IT APPEARS THERE COULD BE A
COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE AIRMASS FROM BECOMING
VERY UNSTABLE IN ADVANCE OF ONE WAVE.
TIMING IS UNCERTAIN FOR SATURDAY AS MODELS AND DIFFERING IN TRAVEL
OF A LOBE OF ENERGY OVER THE AREA BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE A DAY WITH
CONVECTION. LIFT MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD WHICH MAY LIMIT STRENGTH
OF CONVECTION BUT HAVE BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY...SO IT
LOOKS WETTER THAN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK WARMER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SINCE SUNSHINE
MAY BE STRONGER WITH MORE CLOUD COVER LATER IN THE WEEK. BORSUM
&&
.AVIATION...
AN AREA OF STRATUS WILL PERSIST OVER PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING...INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA. CEILINGS
WILL MOSTLY STAY ABOVE MVFR CATEGORY IN THIS AREA...WITH ONLY
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KMLS AND
KBHK LATE TONIGHT. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE VFR FLYING
WEATHER ON LIGHT EAST WINDS. TWH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 050/069 052/074 054/081 057/082 056/078 054/074 052/075
22/T 33/T 32/T 24/T 44/T 43/T 33/T
LVM 045/067 047/074 048/081 051/081 050/077 047/072 044/074
12/T 34/T 43/T 34/T 44/T 43/T 33/T
HDN 049/072 052/075 053/083 058/085 056/080 054/076 051/076
22/T 33/T 32/T 24/T 45/T 54/T 43/T
MLS 048/071 053/073 053/081 057/081 058/080 056/075 052/075
22/T 54/T 31/B 34/T 44/T 44/T 43/T
4BQ 049/068 052/073 052/080 058/085 059/079 055/074 051/074
22/T 55/T 31/B 23/T 35/T 54/T 43/T
BHK 045/069 050/067 049/078 054/078 056/077 054/073 050/071
02/T 55/T 31/B 24/T 43/T 44/T 43/T
SHR 047/067 049/071 050/079 053/084 054/078 051/071 048/073
23/T 54/T 43/T 33/T 35/T 54/T 43/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
843 AM MDT SAT JUN 13 2015
.UPDATE...
NO UPDATE NEEDED TO FORECAST THIS MORNING. COLD FRONT WAS OVER THE
SE CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA PER SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND PRESSURE
RISES. THE PRESSURE RISES WERE CREATING GUSTY WINDS OVER SE MT
WHICH WERE HANDLED WELL IN THE FORECAST. PRECIPITATION HAD EXITED
THE EASTERN ZONES PER BOWMAN RADAR. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH TERRAIN AS THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES UPSLOPE FROM THE E AND SURFACE CAPES
APPROACH 500 J/KG PER THE SREF...MAINLY AFTER 00Z. RAP SOUNDINGS
SHOWED ONLY A LITTLE CAPE OVER KSHR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. SHEAR IS FORECAST OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AS WELL. LOW-
LEVELS WILL BE DRY AND WILL EXHIBIT INVERTED-V PROFILES AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT A LINGERING THUNDERSTORM
OVER THE FAR SE NEAR THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. IT WILL BE COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS. THE DRY AIRMASS WILL
SUPPORT SUNNY SKIES IN MOST AREAS...ONCE THE CLOUDS ON SATELLITE
OVER SE MT EXIT THE AREA.
A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM ID TONIGHT AND ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ALONG THE FRONT BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE ENTIRE AREA. FORECAST WAS IN GOOD
SHAPE. ARTHUR
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...
AS EXPECTED...SOME CONVECTION FIRED OFF MAINLY EAST OF BILLINGS
LAST EVENING. THE BIGGEST IMPACT OF SAID STORMS WAS SHORT BURSTS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL. ONE REPORT CAME IN WITH NEARLY AN INCH OF RAIN
IN LESS THAN A HALF HOUR IN EASTERN ROSEBUD COUNTY. HOWEVER...A
FEW REPORTS OF GUSTY WINDS SOME SMALL HAIL WERE SENT INTO THE
OFFICE.
AREA STREAMS AND CREEKS HAVE SHOWN A LITTLE UPTICK IN RESPONSE DUE
TO THE RAINFALL...BUT NOTHING IMPACTFUL AT THE MOMENT.
COLD FRONT WORKED ITS WAY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS A RESULT DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY WILL BE COOLER
THAN THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL DAYS.
ON THE LARGER SCALE...CIRCULATION AROUND A MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER SASKATCHEWAN WILL BRING SOME ENERGY ACROSS THE
TREASURE STATE BY SATURDAY EVENING. THIS COUPLED WITH EASTERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND SOME UNSTABLE AIR COULD PROVIDE A BOOST TO
POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS ARE DEPICTING CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER
SOUTHERN MONTANA BEFORE MIDNIGHT SUNDAY MORNING. SPC SSEO MODEL
AGREEMENT IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING STORMS OVER OVER
THE FOUR EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA AT THAT TIME.
THE SHEAR VALUES DON/T APPEAR TO BE THAT FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE
CONVECTION...BUT AN ISOLATED STORM WITH LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN
WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED AT A
NOCTURNAL TYPE EVENT...WITH STORMS PERSISTING WELL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ZONAL FLOW TAKES OVER ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED AS WELL. SINGER
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...
EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK UNSETTLED WITH AN ACTIVE
NORTHERN STREAM FUNNELING PACIFIC SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER. KEPT SCATTERED POPS IN FOR MOST PERIODS DURING THE EXTENDED
WITH THE WEAKEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY WHEN BRIEF
SHORTWAVE RIDGING PUSHES THROUGH. STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CHANCES
LOOK A BIT BETTER ON MONDAY THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST AS LOW LEVEL
WINDS TURN SOUTHEAST ADVECTING IN 1 INCH PLUS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES. WHILE NO WELL DEFINED SEVERE THREAT EXISTS BASED ON THE
CURRENT PATTERN...COULD SEE A FEW SEVERE STORMS SCATTERED ABOUT
EACH DAY FROM MONDAY THROUGH THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS PROVIDE GOOD SHEAR AND HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PERSIST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL START
OUT IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MONDAY...RISING TO AROUND 80 DEGREES
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE DROPPING BACK INTO THE 70S WITH
COLD FRONT FRIDAY. CHAMBERS
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP THIS EVENING OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...SPREADING EASTWARD TONIGHT. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. CHAMBERS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 076 052/069 049/072 053/074 054/083 058/078 055/074
0/U 32/T 12/T 34/T 32/T 22/T 33/T
LVM 076 045/068 044/068 049/076 050/081 050/077 048/072
0/U 22/T 13/T 44/T 32/T 23/T 33/T
HDN 078 052/072 048/075 055/076 054/084 058/079 055/075
0/U 33/T 13/T 44/T 32/T 22/T 33/T
MLS 076 053/072 049/074 056/072 053/080 058/078 055/074
0/U 43/T 12/T 45/T 32/T 23/T 44/T
4BQ 077 052/070 049/072 055/073 052/080 056/079 055/074
1/B 53/T 13/T 55/T 32/T 23/T 44/T
BHK 076 050/071 045/072 053/068 050/076 054/075 052/071
1/B 43/T 12/T 46/T 32/T 23/T 44/T
SHR 074 049/067 046/071 051/073 050/080 053/078 052/074
0/B 33/T 14/T 54/T 32/T 23/T 34/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1152 PM MDT FRI JUN 12 2015
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
SHRA/TSRA HAVE MOVED INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FROM THE SW.
MEANWHILE...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THRU THE GAPS OF THE
CENTRAL MTN CHAIN AND BOUNDARY COLLISIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
TS DEVELOPMENT NEAR KAEG/KABQ SOUTHWARD TO KONM FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. ELSEWHERE...A SMALL CLUSTER OF SHRA/TSRA ARE DEVELOPING
BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS EC NM AS HI-RES MODELS SHOWED PREVIOUSLY.
STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE EAST THRU SUNRISE.
ADDITIONALLY...IFR CIGS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT. LOW CIGS SHOULD
PERSIST THRU APPROX 15Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED
ON SAT. MODELS ARE FAVORING AREAS ACROSS NW NM BY LATE
MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTN. THESE STORMS SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE
PLAINS THRU SAT EVE.
34
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...1026 PM MDT FRI JUN 12 2015...
.UPDATE...
DECIDED TO DO A QUICK UPDATE TO REARRANGE THE HIGHER POPS
CENTRAL/NORTH AREAS. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWING AN INTENSIFYING CLUSTER
OF STORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF ABQ/BELEN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD.
LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY SHIFTING NORTHWARD OVER THE
NORTHERN MTNS LATE TONIGHT. RADAR ALSO SHOWING SOME SPECKLED LIGHT
SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE SE PLAINS. WILL GO WITH SCATTERED
ACTIVITY FOR THIS AREA. HRRR NOT REALLY SHOWING IT THERE HOWEVER...SO
HEDGING THE BETS A LITTLE. EITHER WAY...POPULATION CENTERS FROM
SOCORRO TO SANTA FE COULD VERY WELL BE AWOKEN BY SOME THUNDER
TONIGHT.
50
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...331 PM MDT FRI JUN 12 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A MOIST BACK DOOR FRONT SURGING SOUTH AND WEST
ACROSS THE STATE TODAY WILL FOCUS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD
TO SOME AREAS OF FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO
THIS WEEKEND. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP
OVER THE STATE AND LEAD TO A SLOW DRYING AND WARMING TREND NEXT
WEEK. THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA MAY SEE THEIR FIRST MID TO UPPER
90S THIS YEAR.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
AXIS OF MOIST INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL FORCING FOR TORNADO
THREAT IS WAIVERING ALONG THE TEXAS STATE LINE W/ ROOSEVELT
COUNTY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TORNADO WATCH CANCELLED WELL
BEFORE 9PM. THREAT COULD CONTINUE FOR SOUTHEAST ROOSEVELT IF AXIS
BACKS WEST WITH OUTFLOW WINDS FROM STORMS IN TEXAS. OTHERWISE...
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AND LCL HVY RAIN WILL BE OVER THE NE
PLAINS AND IN THE AREA AROUND SOCORRO...TORRANCE...AND LINCOLN
COUNTIES THIS EVENING.
OVERALL NO BIG CHANGES ADVERTISED FROM MODEL TRENDS TODAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH SAGGING SOUTHWARD COULD
ARGUABLY BE FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS TRENDS AND RESULTS IN FOCUS
FOR HIGHEST POPS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
A WELL-DEVELOPED DRYLINE IS ALSO MORE EVIDENT OVER THE FAR SE PLAINS
IN THIS PATTERN SO POTENTIAL FOR SVR STORMS IS A BIT HIGHER...
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. QPF VALUES PER WPC INDICATES SOME FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS OVER THE EAST.
BY MONDAY THE THREAT FOR LCL HVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING FOCUSES
WESTWARD ALONG THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AS A BACK DOOR FRONT SLIDES WEST
UNDERNEATH A DEVELOPING UPPER HIGH. THIS 591DM H5 RIDGE WILL WEAKEN
STEERING FLOW AND ALLOW FOR MORE MATURE TERRAIN DRIVEN CIRCULATIONS
TO CREATE A MORE MONSOONAL PATTERN THRU TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...DRIER
AIR AND WARMING TEMPS WILL SLIDE INTO WESTERN NM.
JUST ABOUT EVERYONE SEES HOTTER TEMPS AND DRIER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
THRU THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS TO NEAR 594DM OVER
AZ/SOCAL. 700MB TEMPS RISE TO BTWN +18C AND +20C OVER NM...WHICH
WILL LEAD TO THE HOTTEST READINGS SO FAR THIS YEAR FOR MANY FOLKS.
MID TO UPPER 90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE ABQ METRO WEDNESDAY AND/OR
THURSDAY. GUYER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AND DRIFT SLOWLY
EASTWARD OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. IT WILL WORK WITH MOISTURE
CURRENTLY BEING DELIVERED BY A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE THE
BEST COVERAGE OF WETTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
AREAS AND THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. SPOTTIER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL TO AS MUCH AS
8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ARE EXPECTED. VENTILATION WILL GENERALLY BE
GOOD OR BETTER...EXCEPT FOR A FEW POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION SUNDAY
IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF CLAYTON TO CONCHAS
AND TUCUMCARI.
ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY...AND A MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SE
US WILL FUNNEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD OUT MEXICO OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS
WILL KEEP WETTING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST MAINLY EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
SOUTH OF I-40 IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND MANZANO AND GALLINAS
MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS MUCH OF ROOSEVELT COUNTY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT
SHOULD USHER IN DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST WITH A DOWNTICK IN
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WEDNESDAY INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE COMING
WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND UPWARD REACHING ABOVE
NORMAL AREAWIDE THURSDAY. 44
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1026 PM MDT FRI JUN 12 2015
.UPDATE...
DECIDED TO DO A QUICK UPDATE TO REARRANGE THE HIGHER POPS
CENTRAL/NORTH AREAS. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWING AN INTENSIFYING CLUSTER
OF STORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF ABQ/BELEN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD.
LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY SHIFTING NORTHWARD OVER THE
NORTHERN MTNS LATE TONIGHT. RADAR ALSO SHOWING SOME SPECKLED LIGHT
SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE SE PLAINS. WILL GO WITH SCATTERED
ACTIVITY FOR THIS AREA. HRRR NOT REALLY SHOWING IT THERE HOWEVER...SO
HEDGING THE BETS A LITTLE. EITHER WAY...POPULATION CENTERS FROM
SOCORRO TO SANTA FE COULD VERY WELL BE AWOKEN BY SOME THUNDER
TONIGHT.
50
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...605 PM MDT FRI JUN 12 2015...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
LATEST HI-RES MODELS SHOWING SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS
EVENING ACROSS SW NM AND MOVING NE TOWARD KABQ. SOME -SHRA IN THE
AREA NOW...SO ITS FEASIBLE. WILL LEAVE A VCSH IN KABQ/KAEG FOR
NOW. OTHERWISE...RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS SHOULD DRAW
UP MOISTURE THIS EVE AND OVERNIGHT. AS IT REACHES THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...COULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND/OR
CONVECTION DEVELOP. MODELS INDICATING A SMALL COMPLEX OF STORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS EC NM AFT 06Z AND MOVING EAST THRU SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE..IFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE PLAINS
MAINLY AFT 06Z THRU APPROX 15Z. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED SAT AFTN ACROSS MUCH OF N AND E NM.
34
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...331 PM MDT FRI JUN 12 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A MOIST BACK DOOR FRONT SURGING SOUTH AND WEST
ACROSS THE STATE TODAY WILL FOCUS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD
TO SOME AREAS OF FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO
THIS WEEKEND. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP
OVER THE STATE AND LEAD TO A SLOW DRYING AND WARMING TREND NEXT
WEEK. THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA MAY SEE THEIR FIRST MID TO UPPER
90S THIS YEAR.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
AXIS OF MOIST INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL FORCING FOR TORNADO
THREAT IS WAIVERING ALONG THE TEXAS STATE LINE W/ ROOSEVELT
COUNTY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TORNADO WATCH CANCELLED WELL
BEFORE 9PM. THREAT COULD CONTINUE FOR SOUTHEAST ROOSEVELT IF AXIS
BACKS WEST WITH OUTFLOW WINDS FROM STORMS IN TEXAS. OTHERWISE...
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AND LCL HVY RAIN WILL BE OVER THE NE
PLAINS AND IN THE AREA AROUND SOCORRO...TORRANCE...AND LINCOLN
COUNTIES THIS EVENING.
OVERALL NO BIG CHANGES ADVERTISED FROM MODEL TRENDS TODAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH SAGGING SOUTHWARD COULD
ARGUABLY BE FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS TRENDS AND RESULTS IN FOCUS
FOR HIGHEST POPS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
A WELL-DEVELOPED DRYLINE IS ALSO MORE EVIDENT OVER THE FAR SE PLAINS
IN THIS PATTERN SO POTENTIAL FOR SVR STORMS IS A BIT HIGHER...
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. QPF VALUES PER WPC INDICATES SOME FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS OVER THE EAST.
BY MONDAY THE THREAT FOR LCL HVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING FOCUSES
WESTWARD ALONG THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AS A BACK DOOR FRONT SLIDES WEST
UNDERNEATH A DEVELOPING UPPER HIGH. THIS 591DM H5 RIDGE WILL WEAKEN
STEERING FLOW AND ALLOW FOR MORE MATURE TERRAIN DRIVEN CIRCULATIONS
TO CREATE A MORE MONSOONAL PATTERN THRU TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...DRIER
AIR AND WARMING TEMPS WILL SLIDE INTO WESTERN NM.
JUST ABOUT EVERYONE SEES HOTTER TEMPS AND DRIER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
THRU THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS TO NEAR 594DM OVER
AZ/SOCAL. 700MB TEMPS RISE TO BTWN +18C AND +20C OVER NM...WHICH
WILL LEAD TO THE HOTTEST READINGS SO FAR THIS YEAR FOR MANY FOLKS.
MID TO UPPER 90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE ABQ METRO WEDNESDAY AND/OR
THURSDAY. GUYER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AND DRIFT SLOWLY
EASTWARD OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. IT WILL WORK WITH MOISTURE
CURRENTLY BEING DELIVERED BY A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE THE
BEST COVERAGE OF WETTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
AREAS AND THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. SPOTTIER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL TO AS MUCH AS
8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ARE EXPECTED. VENTILATION WILL GENERALLY BE
GOOD OR BETTER...EXCEPT FOR A FEW POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION SUNDAY
IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF CLAYTON TO CONCHAS
AND TUCUMCARI.
ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY...AND A MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SE
US WILL FUNNEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD OUT MEXICO OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS
WILL KEEP WETTING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST MAINLY EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
SOUTH OF I-40 IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND MANZANO AND GALLINAS
MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS MUCH OF ROOSEVELT COUNTY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT
SHOULD USHER IN DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST WITH A DOWNTICK IN
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WEDNESDAY INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE COMING
WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND UPWARD REACHING ABOVE
NORMAL AREAWIDE THURSDAY. 44
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
50
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1034 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THIS. THIS SYSTEM WILL
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL BRING AN ANOTHER CHANCE AT
POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. THERE IS ALSO
SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE
DAY BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA BY
MID WEEK WILL WE RETURN TO DRIER CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT SUNDAY...JUST A FEW TWEAKS TO THE GOING
FORECAST.
RADAR SHOWING A GROWING AREA OF SHOWERS EXTENDING WELL NORTH INTO
ONTARIO THAT ARE STEADILY MOVING EAST AND ARE NOW ENTERING THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS RESULTING FROM WARM FRONTAL LIFT. SHOULD
START RAINING LIGHTLY AT KMSS AND KSLK WITHIN THE HOUR. SHOWERS
SHOULD MAINLY BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE, THOUGH THERE ARE SIGNS THAT
THERE COULD BE SOME MODERATE SHOWERS AS WELL. LATEST HRRR USED TO
AUGMENT THE LOCATION AND TIME OF THE PRECIPITATION.
LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 AS CLOUDS
AND PRECIP WILL PREVENT TOO MUCH OF A DROP.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT SUNDAY...MONDAY MORNING WILL SERVE AS THE LULL
BETWEEN THE IMPULSES OF ENERGY FROM THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. MOVE OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WE WILL SEE
SOME SLIGHT DRIER AIR FEEDING IN FROM THE WEST AS A NORTHERN
STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN CANADA BEGINS TO PHASE
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE NET RESULT
FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY IS THAT THERE WILL BE BREAKS DURING THE DAY
WITH NO SHOWERS. THE POTENTIALLY PATCHY CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW
ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR SOME SURFACE HEATING TO
DEVELOP WHICH WILL BEGIN TO UNSTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. AS THE
MOISTURE FROM THE PHASING SYSTEMS MOVES INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY SOME CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AND WITH 30-40 KTS OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND 300-500 J/KG OF INSTABILITY THERE COULD BE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. AT THE MOMENT I DON`T FEEL THE OVERLAP IS
ALL THAT GREAT BUT SPC HAS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE MAIN THREAT AS STRONG TO
DAMAGING WINDS. AS OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE I HAVEN`T INCLUDED ANY
MENTION OF ENHANCED WORDING FOR THE SHOWERS ALONG THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY.
TUESDAY WILL BE THE MORE INTERESTING OF THE TWO DAYS IN THE EARLY
WEEK AS THE PHASED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE
REGION. ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE FORECAST REGION AS THE FRONT DRAWS CLOSER TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THAT ENERGY AND DYNAMIC FORCING WILL DESTABILIZE
MOST OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
ALONG WITH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AS ONCE AGAIN PATCHES OF
SCATTED CLOUDS WILL BE OVER THE AREA. AS THE FRONT MOVES IN CLOSER
A STRONG 50-70KT JET WILL BE PRESENT AT 500MB. THIS COMBINED WITH
THE LIGHT WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL CAUSE STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. AS THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE PHASED FRONT MOVES DOWN FROM
CANADA THERE WILL BE DECENT CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WITH THE NAM
FORECASTING 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE WITH MODERATE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AS WELL. THIS COMBINATION OF LIFT FROM THE FRONT,
INSTABILITY FROM THE SCATTERED CLOUDS AND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW
LEVELS COULD LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR VERMONT AND PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK. TIMING
RIGHT NOW BASED ON THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
CONVECTION WILL BEGIN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE THROUGH
IN THE EARLY EVENING. WITH ONLY MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EXPECT THE MAIN THREAT TO ONCE AGAIN BE DAMAGING WINDS WHERE SOME
TREES OR POWER LINES COULD BE BLOWN DOWN. THERE IS INCREASED
CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS SO WITH THIS UPDATE
I DID GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE THE MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS IN THE
FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE A CHALLENGE BASED ON WHERE THE DRY
SLOT IN BETWEEN THE WAVES OF ENERGY WILL REACH. AS OF THE 12Z
SUITE OF GUIDANCE I ANTICIPATE THE DRIER AIR WONT REACH THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SO EXPECT A ROUGHLY 10-15 DEGREE SPREAD IN MAX
TEMPS FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN THE
UPPER 70S AND SOUTHERN VERMONT IN THE MID TO LOW 60S. OVERNIGHT ON
MONDAY TEMPS WILL HOLD FAIRLY NORMAL IN IN THE MID 50S EAST OF THE
GREENS AND IN THE LOW 60S IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. THEN
TUESDAY WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLEARING THERE IS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TO ALLOW FOR DAYTIME HEATING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
BUT THE IDEA WILL BE THAT TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE
THE FRONT FINALLY CLEARS THE AREA BRINGING SOME COOLER AIR FROM
THE NORTH DROPPING TEMPERATURES TUESDAY EVENING BY ABOUT 3-5
DEGREES FROM MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT SUNDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE REGION AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT DRY AND HOLDS
OFF BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. WILL OPT
TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
FROM CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE KEPT IN CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
CANADA ON FRIDAY AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
MODELS SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODELS
SHOW INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AND
HAS A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER AND BRING THIS FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY.
INTERESTINGLY THE ECMWF MODEL TAKES THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE JUST
EAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVES IT
NORTHWEST INTO TEXAS...AND THEN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BEFORE TURNING IT NORTHEAST UP THE OHIO VALLEY. THE ECMWF
HAS THE REMNANTS OF THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY NEXT SUNDAY. EITHER WAY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS WANT TO BRING IN PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THUS...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR FOR SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z
TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO START THE PERIOD AS
APPROACHING WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION BRINGING SHOWERS
AFTER 02Z. EXPECT KSLK CEILINGS TO DROP TO MVFR AROUND 03Z...WITH
OTHER STATIONS FOLLOWING SUIT BETWEEN 08-13Z. SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE
OUT OF THE AREA BETWEEN 14-16Z.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY AROUND THE REGION...WITH
KBTV/KPBG/KRUT SEEING STRONGER WINDS GUSTING 10-20 KNOTS AFTER
13Z.
OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z TUESDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR RAIN SHOWERS,
ESPECIALLY KRUT.
00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE. PATCHY
MVFR/IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KRUT/KSLK/KMPV.
12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH SCT MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
RAIN SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.
06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN BR/FG, HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE AT KMPV/KSLK.
12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MVFR/SCATTERED IFR IN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...MV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
303 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO SUNSHINE TODAY. HOWEVER...A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE WAFFLING ITS WAY BACK INTO OUR VICINITY
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. DURING THAT TIME PERIOD...THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH A MOIST AIR MASS...WILL CAUSE
PERIODIC SHOWERS AND CHANCES OF THUNDER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
10 AM UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES. CLOUDS ERODING FROM THE NE BUT STILL CLOUDY FROM
STEUBEN TO PIKE. DRY DAY WITH NO POPS UNTIL LATE IN THE FAR WEST.
HIGH TEMPS LOOK GOOD AND ON TRACK.
655 AM UPDATE...
MADE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS
MORNING...WHICH ADVECTED IN SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NY. ALSO...USING 925MB RH FIELD OF RUC MODEL AS
A PROXY FOR THE POST- FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS...I HELD IN CLOUDS /AND
EVEN SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE INITIALLY/ A BIT LONGER THIS MORNING
BEFORE SUNSHINE OVERSPREADS THE AREA LATER TODAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PRIOR BAND OF SHWRS ALG SWD MOVG COLD FRNT HAS ALL BUT DSIPTD
EARLY THIS MRNG. THIS SHOULD LEAVE US WITH RAIN- FREE WX TDY...AS
THE PREV MENTIONED FRNTL ZN SETTLES DOWN INTO SRN OH/PA...AND A
SFC RIDGE EXPANDS SWD OUT OF ONT/QUE.
SAT/SFC OBS SHOW PLENTY OF POST-FRNTL LOW CLDS OVER THE RGN ATTM.
WE EXPECT THESE CLDS TO THIN OUT RATHER QUICKLY BY MID-MRNG
(BETWEEN 7 AND 10 AM)...AS THE SHALLOW MOIST LYR MIXES OUT/GETS
SQUASHED BY LARGE-SCALE SINKING MOTION. THUS...EARLY CLDS SHOULD
GIVE TO WAY TO PTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. AS SOMEWHAT COOLER
DRIER AIR BUILDS DOWN FROM THE N TDY...CONDS WILL BE MUCH LESS
MUGGY...WITH AFTN HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CNY...TO THE LOW-MID 80S ACRS NE PA.
TNT...THE SAME FRNTL BNDRY WILL BEGIN TO CREEP BACK NWD/NEWD AS A
WARM FRNT LATE (AFTER MIDNIGHT). THUS...CLR TO PTLY CLDY SKIES
EARLY IN THE EVE...WILL GIVE WAY TO THICKENING CLDS THEREAFTER FROM
SW TO NE. WE ALSO CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SCHC OF SHWRS RETURNING
TO OUR FAR WRN ZNS (FINGER LAKES/CNTRL SRN TIER AREAS)...SPCLY
FROM LATE EVE ONWARD. LOWS OVERNIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID
50S-LWR 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
4 AM UPDATE...
THOUGH SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EXTENDED IN FROM
QUEBEC INITIALLY SUNDAY MORNING...MOST MODELS NOW HAVE LATCHED
ONTO THE TREND OF BRINGING WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF
THUNDER BACK INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY WESTERN TO
CENTRAL ZONES. AS WEST-TO-EAST INSTABILITY AND TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT SETS UP WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME SHEAR ALONG THE LIFTING WARM FRONT
ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY. SPC DAY 2 AND DAY 3 OUTLOOKS ACTUALLY
INCLUDE OUR AREA IN MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WITH FOCUS TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST. WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AGAIN TO AROUND 2 INCHES...WE ARE ALSO
CONCERNED FOR POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUS LOCALIZED FLOODING
WHERE TRAINING OCCURS. WILL BE INCLUDING THESE ISSUES IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
COMPLICATING FACTOR THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH BE THE AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER WHICH MAY PUT A LIMIT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SOUNDINGS
ALSO TAKE ON A MOIST ADIABATIC LOOK AT TIMES...WHICH WOULD NOT
PROMOTE EVAPORATIONAL COOLING OF DOWNDRAFTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
300 PM EDT UPDATE...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TUES NIGHT INTO WED MORNING WE WILL BE ON THE OUTER EDGE OF THE UPPR
LVL RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING EASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN QUIET AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE
DAY... BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE UPPR LVL PATTERN WILL QUICKLY
TRANSITION INTO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN WILL ALLOW
MULT WAVES TO SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOTS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN
GUIDANCE HAS A HARD TIME HANDLING AND ARE SHOWING MANY DISCREPANCIES
IN SOLUTIONS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING WED MORNING THRU FRIDAY EVENING. KEPT POPS LOW AS
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF EACH WAVE PASSING THROUGH.
TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
10 AM UPDATE...
IFR IS GONE BUT MVFR MAY LINGER AN HOUR LONGER THAN FORECAST.
ADJUSTED TAFS TO REMOVE IFR AND LINGER MVFR CIGS.
12Z SAT UPDATE... LOW CLDS WILL HANG ON FOR A WHILE THROUGH MID-
LATE MRNG (14-16Z)...WITH CIG BASES GENERALLY LIFTING FROM
IFR/LWR END MVFR TO HIGHER END MVFR/VFR. THESE LWR CLDS SHOULD
SCTR OUT BY MIDDAY.
FROM THIS AFTN THROUGH TNT...VFR IS EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AGN OVERNIGHT...THEY SHOULD GENERALLY BE OF THE MID AND
HIGH-LVL VARIETY.
N TO NW SFC WINDS 5-10 KT TDY...WILL BECOME LGT AND VRBL TNT (AOB
5 KT).
.OUTLOOK...
SUN...MOSTLY VFR...BUT SOME RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL DURG THE
AFTN...AS SCTD SHWRS/TSTMS RE-DVLP.
SUN NGT-TUE...POSSIBLE SHRA-TSRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
WED...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MLJ/MDP/TAC
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...MLJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
657 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL GRADUALLY GIVE
WAY TO SUNSHINE LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
WAFFLING ITS WAY BACK INTO OUR VICINITY SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY. DURING THAT TIME PERIOD...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ALONG
WITH A MOIST AIR MASS...WILL CAUSE PERIODIC SHOWERS AND CHANCES OF
THUNDER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
655 AM UPDATE...
MADE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS
MORNING...WHICH ADVECTED IN SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NY. ALSO...USING 925MB RH FIELD OF RUC MODEL AS
A PROXY FOR THE POST- FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS...I HELD IN CLOUDS /AND
EVEN SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE INITIALLY/ A BIT LONGER THIS MORNING
BEFORE SUNSHINE OVERSPREADS THE AREA LATER TODAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PRIOR BAND OF SHWRS ALG SWD MOVG COLD FRNT HAS ALL BUT DSIPTD
EARLY THIS MRNG. THIS SHOULD LEAVE US WITH RAIN- FREE WX TDY...AS
THE PREV MENTIONED FRNTL ZN SETTLES DOWN INTO SRN OH/PA...AND A
SFC RIDGE EXPANDS SWD OUT OF ONT/QUE.
SAT/SFC OBS SHOW PLENTY OF POST-FRNTL LOW CLDS OVER THE RGN ATTM.
WE EXPECT THESE CLDS TO THIN OUT RATHER QUICKLY BY MID-MRNG
(BETWEEN 7 AND 10 AM)...AS THE SHALLOW MOIST LYR MIXES OUT/GETS
SQUASHED BY LARGE-SCALE SINKING MOTION. THUS...EARLY CLDS SHOULD
GIVE TO WAY TO PTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. AS SOMEWHAT COOLER
DRIER AIR BUILDS DOWN FROM THE N TDY...CONDS WILL BE MUCH LESS
MUGGY...WITH AFTN HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CNY...TO THE LOW-MID 80S ACRS NE PA.
TNT...THE SAME FRNTL BNDRY WILL BEGIN TO CREEP BACK NWD/NEWD AS A
WARM FRNT LATE (AFTER MIDNIGHT). THUS...CLR TO PTLY CLDY SKIES
EARLY IN THE EVE...WILL GIVE WAY TO THICKENING CLDS THEREAFTER FROM
SW TO NE. WE ALSO CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SCHC OF SHWRS RETURNING
TO OUR FAR WRN ZNS (FINGER LAKES/CNTRL SRN TIER AREAS)...SPCLY
FROM LATE EVE ONWARD. LOWS OVERNIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID
50S-LWR 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...
THOUGH SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EXTENDED IN FROM
QUEBEC INITIALLY SUNDAY MORNING...MOST MODELS NOW HAVE LATCHED
ONTO THE TREND OF BRINGING WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF
THUNDER BACK INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY WESTERN TO
CENTRAL ZONES. AS WEST-TO-EAST INSTABILITY AND TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT SETS UP WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME SHEAR ALONG THE LIFTING WARM FRONT
ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY. SPC DAY 2 AND DAY 3 OUTLOOKS ACTUALLY
INCLUDE OUR AREA IN MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WITH FOCUS TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST. WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AGAIN TO AROUND 2 INCHES...WE ARE ALSO
CONCERNED FOR POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUS LOCALIZED FLOODING
WHERE TRAINING OCCURS. WILL BE INCLUDING THESE ISSUES IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
COMPLICATING FACTOR THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH BE THE AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER WHICH MAY PUT A LIMIT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SOUNDINGS
ALSO TAKE ON A MOIST ADIABATIC LOOK AT TIMES...WHICH WOULD NOT
PROMOTE EVAPORATIONAL COOLING OF DOWNDRAFTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIPRES BLDS IN TUE BRINGING CLRG SKIES HOLDING INTO WED.
HWVR...IT/S A BIT OF A DIRTY FLAT RDG AND ISLTD CONV CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT...ESP OVER THE PA ZONES. SLY FLOW AND MOISTURE RETURNS
IN EARNEST LATE WED INTO THU AS A WV AND SFC LOW APRCHS FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING AN INCRSD CHANCE OF SHWRS AND TRWS
INTO THU AND BEYOND.
HPC GUID WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OTR MODEL GUID AND WAS GRNLY
FLWD. MINOR TWEAKS TO DATA FOR BETTER COLLABORATION AND TO BRING
BETTER CONSISTENCY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
12Z SAT UPDATE... LOW CLDS WILL HANG ON FOR A WHILE THROUGH MID-
LATE MRNG (14-16Z)...WITH CIG BASES GENERALLY LIFTING FROM
IFR/LWR END MVFR TO HIGHER END MVFR/VFR. THESE LWR CLDS SHOULD
SCTR OUT BY MIDDAY.
FROM THIS AFTN THROUGH TNT...VFR IS EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AGN OVERNIGHT...THEY SHOULD GENERALLY BE OF THE MID AND
HIGH-LVL VARIETY.
N TO NW SFC WINDS 5-10 KT TDY...WILL BECOME LGT AND VRBL TNT (AOB
5 KT).
.OUTLOOK...
SUN...MOSTLY VFR...BUT SOME RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL DURG THE
AFTN...AS SCTD SHWRS/TSTMS RE-DVLP.
SUN NGT-TUE...POSSIBLE SHRA-TSRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
WED...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MLJ/MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...MLJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1022 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD WILL CREATE HOT TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK. HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL EXCEED 100 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND...POTENTIALLY REACHING
105 DEGREES FOR SEVERAL DAYS NEXT WEEK. SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM SATURDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST
WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND/STRENGTHEN TODAY WHILE AT THE SURFACE
ELONGATED HIGH SITS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. DEEP WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL KEEP THE SEA BREEZE PINNED VERY NEAR TO THE COAST
TODAY...QUITE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE WILL KEEP WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AT BAY BUT STILL EXPECT A
FEW ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING...AIDED BY
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE TOPSIDE OF THE RIDGE. HIGH RES
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS CONVECTION BREAKING OUT EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...ALONG THE PINNED SEA BREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH.
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY STORMS WILL BE SHORT LIVED BUT WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 2 INCHES AND WARM CLOUD LAYER
DEPTH ON THE ORDER OF 10K FT HEAVY RAIN COULD BE AN ISSUE WHERE
STORMS DO DEVELOP.
ANOTHER CONSEQUENCE OF THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE THE HIGH HEAT
INDEX VALUES THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH HEAT INDICES WILL NOT REACH
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS VALUES WILL STILL BE IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S EVEN VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...MID-SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE SHORT
TERM AS BERMUDA HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE COMBINE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
WEAKNESS WHICH HAS BEEN PROGGED OVER THE NE PERIPHERY OF THE GROWING
RIDGE THIS PERIOD HAS WEAKENED IN GUIDANCE...AND THUS EVEN LESS
CHANCE FOR ANY COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA. STILL EXPECT A WIND
SHIFT AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE AREA...BUT ANY ACTUAL TEMP ADVECTION
WILL REMAIN DISPLACED WELL NE OF THE AREA. SO...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY
TURN TO THE NW SUNDAY AND MONDAY...IT WILL DO NOTHING TO PREVENT
TEMPS FROM SOARING TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS. HIGHS BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL RISE INTO THE MID AND UPR 90S...EVEN AROUND 90 AT THE
BEACH...WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID 70S...AROUND 80 AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH NEAR 70 DEWPOINTS WILL
DRIVE HEAT INDEX VALUES TO 100-105 DEGREES...AND IT IS POSSIBLE SOME
AREAS MAY NEED A HEAT ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME THAT IS NOT
BEING FORECAST.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO FORCING FOR CONVECTION...AND A MID-LEVEL
CAP WILL BE PRESENT THANKS TO THE SUBSIDENT RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE SEA
BREEZE COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO DRIVE PARCELS THROUGH THE
CAP...AND SREF PROBS SHOW A GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIP ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FOR THIS REASON WILL MAINTAIN THE
INHERITED SCHC POP EACH AFTN...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
ISOLATED.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT STORY OF THE EXTENDED. LARGE 500MB RIDGE WILL
REMAIN DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THROUGH THE WEEK...WHILE BERMUDA HIGH SPINS
OFFSHORE. THESE TWO FACTORS WILL MAINTAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH DANGEROUS HEAT AT LEAST THROUGH MID-WEEK...AND
HEAT ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE MON/TUE/WED FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES
EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES. LATE WEEK MAY BRING SUBTLE CHANGE AS A MID-
LEVEL LOW...POSSIBLY OF TROPICAL ORIGIN...ROTATES AROUND THE RIDGE
AND WILL TRY TO BREAK IT DOWN ON ITS NORTHERN PERIPHERY. WHILE THE
MAJORITY OF IMPACTS FROM THIS MOISTURE WILL BE NORTH OF THE
AREA...SOME SUBTLE HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE PERIOD SO
WILL SHOW SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS THU/FRI BUT REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL
FOR MID-JUNE. POP WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT MAY
INCREASE LATE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOWERED THICKNESSES ALLOWING
FOR BETTER CONVECTIVE CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A HOT A STICKY DAY TODAY. WEST WINDS WILL GET A BIT GUSTY
IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS SCATTERED CONVECTION
POPPING UP AROUND 17Z...BUT NOT TOO HEAVY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND A
PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL HELP TO KICK THINGS OFF...HOWEVER MOISTURE IS
A BIT LIMITED. ADIABATIC WARMING WILL HELP TO GET TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID 90S...EVEN FOR THE COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
WILL BE PINNED. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LITTLE OR NO FOG
EXPECTED.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH
MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM SATURDAY...CONDITIONS HAVE FALLEN BELOW SCEC
THRESHOLDS SO THE HEADLINE HAS BEEN ENDED A BIT EARLY. THE STRONG
NOCTURNAL JETTING THAT WARRANTED HEADLINES OVERNIGHT ENDED HOURS
AGO AND SPEEDS ARE CURRENTLY 10 TO 15 KT ACROSS NEARSHORE WATERS.
DIRECTION IS CURRENTLY WEST-SOUTHWEST BUT NEARSHORE FLOW WILL
BECOME ONSHORE AS THE PINNED SEA BREEZE STARTS TO DEVELOP. FARTHER
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST AS PIEDMONT TROUGH
DEVELOPS AND MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST. GRADIENT OVERNIGHT WILL
REMAIN STATIC WITH SPEEDS STAYING IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. SEAS
WILL RUN 3 TO 4 FT TODAY AND 2 TO 3 FT OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL PERSIST AS THE DOMINANT
SYNOPTIC FEATURE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AND ALTHOUGH SUBTLE
VARIATIONS IN WIND ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO WEAK TROUGHS EACH DAY...SW
WILL BE THE PRIMARY WIND DIRECTION. SUNDAY...THESE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT...AROUND 10 KT...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT AND LOCAL BACKING
DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. THESE WINDS WILL
INCREASE MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...BECOMING AROUND 15 KT ALL WATERS. SEAS WILL
FEATURE A VARIETY OF WAVE GROUPS...BUT WILL REMAIN OF RATHER LOW
AMPLITUDE. EXPECT PRIMARILY 2 FT SEASON SUNDAY...BUILDING TO 3 FT
MONDAY THANKS TO THE STRONGER WIND-WAVE CONTRIBUTION.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
MID-WEEK...WITH SW WINDS AROUND THIS FEATURE CONTINUING OVER THE
WATERS. THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...SO WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE 10-15 KT TUESDAY...INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KT OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER ON WEDNESDAY. THE WAVE SPECTRUM WILL HAVE A VARIETY OF LOW-
AMPLITUDE WAVE GROUPS EACH DAY...BUT THE SW WIND- WAVE WILL
INCREASE WEDNESDAY...DRIVING SEAS FROM 2-3 FT TUESDAY TO 3-4 FT ON
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
649 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD WILL CREATE HOT TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK. HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL EXCEED 100 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND...POTENTIALLY REACHING
105 DEGREES FOR SEVERAL DAYS NEXT WEEK. SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALOFT WILL BRING
HIGH HEAT TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TODAY. ALTHOUGH NO RECORD HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED...LOWER TO MID 90S SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD. EVEN THE
BEACHES SHOULD REACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED 90 DEGREES TODAY. COUPLE
THIS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S AND IT WILL
FEEL AS IF IT IS AROUND 100 DEGREES...UP TO 102. THIS WILL NOT
QUITE MEET HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT WILL HEIGHTEN AWARENESS BY
REISSUING AN SPS. MUGGY TONIGHT AS WELL...WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND
UPPER 70S.
A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL MAKE A PUSH ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVE. AT THE SAME TIME THE SEABREEZE WILL SHARPEN...BUT
AS IT ATTEMPTS TO PUSH INLAND...IT SHOULD ENCOUNTER RESISTANCE GIVEN
THE W AND NW FLOW IN THE LOWEST 5 KFT. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE PINNED AT THE COAST. ENHANCED CONVERGENCE/LIFT ALONG
THESE BOUNDARIES COUPLED WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT IN
THE COLUMN...NEAR TWO INCHES...AND MIXED CAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO
1500 J/KG...SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SET OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS AND
SHOWERS. THE WARMER AIR ALOFT...AROUND 15000 FT...DEVELOPS A
CAPPING INVERSION LATE AFTERNOON AND EVE AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO
SQUASH CONVECTION AND WOULD NOT EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO LINGER PAST THE EARLY EVE. LIFT REMAINS RATHER SHALLOW PER TIME
HEIGHT ANALYSIS AND THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SUBSIDENCE ABOVE 8-10
KFT. HOWEVER...THERE IS ALSO A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN
NW FLOW THAT MOVES BY JUST TO OUR N. THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THIS FEATURE WILL SKIRT OUR MORE NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE TIME OF
PEAK HEATING. THE HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR IS SHOWING CONSIDERABLE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE AND WILL
MAINTAIN SMALL POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...FAVORING
THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY AND MORE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...MID-SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE SHORT
TERM AS BERMUDA HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE COMBINE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
WEAKNESS WHICH HAS BEEN PROGGED OVER THE NE PERIPHERY OF THE GROWING
RIDGE THIS PERIOD HAS WEAKENED IN GUIDANCE...AND THUS EVEN LESS
CHANCE FOR ANY COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA. STILL EXPECT A WIND
SHIFT AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE AREA...BUT ANY ACTUAL TEMP ADVECTION
WILL REMAIN DISPLACED WELL NE OF THE AREA. SO...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY
TURN TO THE NW SUNDAY AND MONDAY...IT WILL DO NOTHING TO PREVENT
TEMPS FROM SOARING TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS. HIGHS BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL RISE INTO THE MID AND UPR 90S...EVEN AROUND 90 AT THE
BEACH...WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID 70S...AROUND 80 AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH NEAR 70 DEWPOINTS WILL
DRIVE HEAT INDEX VALUES TO 100-105 DEGREES...AND IT IS POSSIBLE SOME
AREAS MAY NEED A HEAT ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME THAT IS NOT
BEING FORECAST.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO FORCING FOR CONVECTION...AND A MID-LEVEL
CAP WILL BE PRESENT THANKS TO THE SUBSIDENT RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE SEA
BREEZE COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO DRIVE PARCELS THROUGH THE
CAP...AND SREF PROBS SHOW A GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIP ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FOR THIS REASON WILL MAINTAIN THE
INHERITED SCHC POP EACH AFTN...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
ISOLATED.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT STORY OF THE EXTENDED. LARGE 500MB RIDGE WILL
REMAIN DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THROUGH THE WEEK...WHILE BERMUDA HIGH SPINS
OFFSHORE. THESE TWO FACTORS WILL MAINTAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH DANGEROUS HEAT AT LEAST THROUGH MID-WEEK...AND
HEAT ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE MON/TUE/WED FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES
EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES. LATE WEEK MAY BRING SUBTLE CHANGE AS A MID-
LEVEL LOW...POSSIBLY OF TROPICAL ORIGIN...ROTATES AROUND THE RIDGE
AND WILL TRY TO BREAK IT DOWN ON ITS NORTHERN PERIPHERY. WHILE THE
MAJORITY OF IMPACTS FROM THIS MOISTURE WILL BE NORTH OF THE
AREA...SOME SUBTLE HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE PERIOD SO
WILL SHOW SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS THU/FRI BUT REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL
FOR MID-JUNE. POP WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT MAY
INCREASE LATE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOWERED THICKNESSES ALLOWING
FOR BETTER CONVECTIVE CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A HOT A STICKY DAY TODAY. WEST WINDS WILL GET A BIT GUSTY
IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS SCATTERED CONVECTION
POPPING UP AROUND 17Z...BUT NOT TOO HEAVY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND A
PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL HELP TO KICK THINGS OFF...HOWEVER MOISTURE IS
A BIT LIMITED. ADIABATIC WARMING WILL HELP TO GET TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID 90S...EVEN FOR THE COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
WILL BE PINNED. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LITTLE OR NO FOG
EXPECTED.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH
MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM SATURDAY...NOCTURNAL JETTING WILL WANE THIS MORNING
AND THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS AND EVENTUALLY SEAS TO SUBSIDE. WILL
INITIALIZE WITH A SCEC FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS FOR SEAS UP TO 5 FT
AND SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 20 KT. A SEABREEZE BOUNDARY WILL BE
PINNED AT THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE NW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. SW
WINDS WILL VEER TO MORE WESTERLY TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH MOVES
OFFSHORE. THE STRONGEST WINDS THIS MORNING...UP TO 20 KT WILL
DECREASE TO 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE AND 10 KT OR LESS
OVERNIGHT. SEAS UP TO 4 TO 5 FT THIS MORNING WILL SUBSIDE TO 3 TO
4 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND TO 2 TO 3 FT TONIGHT. A WEAK 10 TO 12
SECOND SWELL WILL REMAIN.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL PERSIST AS THE DOMINANT
SYNOPTIC FEATURE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AND ALTHOUGH SUBTLE
VARIATIONS IN WIND ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO WEAK TROUGHS EACH DAY...SW
WILL BE THE PRIMARY WIND DIRECTION. SUNDAY...THESE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT...AROUND 10 KT...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT AND LOCAL BACKING
DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. THESE WINDS WILL
INCREASE MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...BECOMING AROUND 15 KT ALL WATERS. SEAS WILL
FEATURE A VARIETY OF WAVE GROUPS...BUT WILL REMAIN OF RATHER LOW
AMPLITUDE. EXPECT PRIMARILY 2 FT SEASON SUNDAY...BUILDING TO 3 FT
MONDAY THANKS TO THE STRONGER WIND-WAVE CONTRIBUTION.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
MID-WEEK...WITH SW WINDS AROUND THIS FEATURE CONTINUING OVER THE
WATERS. THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...SO WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE 10-15 KT TUESDAY...INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KT OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER ON WEDNESDAY. THE WAVE SPECTRUM WILL HAVE A VARIETY OF LOW-
AMPLITUDE WAVE GROUPS EACH DAY...BUT THE SW WIND- WAVE WILL
INCREASE WEDNESDAY...DRIVING SEAS FROM 2-3 FT TUESDAY TO 3-4 FT ON
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
635 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD WILL CREATE HOT TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK. HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL EXCEED 100 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND...POTENTIALLY REACHING
105 DEGREES FOR SEVERAL DAYS NEXT WEEK. SOMEWHAT COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS
DOWN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALOFT WILL BRING HIGH
HEAT TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TODAY. ALTHOUGH NO RECORD HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED...LOWER TO MID 90S SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD. EVEN THE BEACHES
SHOULD REACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED 90 DEGREES TODAY. COUPLE THIS WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S AND IT WILL FEEL AS IF IT
IS AROUND 100 DEGREES...UP TO 102. THIS WILL NOT QUITE MEET HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT WILL HEIGHTEN AWARENESS BY REISSUING AN SPS.
MUGGY TONIGHT AS WELL...WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S.
A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL MAKE A PUSH ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVE. AT THE SAME TIME THE SEABREEZE WILL SHARPEN...BUT
AS IT ATTEMPTS TO PUSH INLAND...IT SHOULD ENCOUNTER RESISTANCE GIVEN
THE W AND NW FLOW IN THE LOWEST 5 KFT. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE PINNED VERY NEAR THE COAST. ENHANCED CONVERGENCE
ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES COUPLED WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT
IN THE COLUMN...NEAR TWO INCHES...AND MIXED CAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO
1500 J/KG...SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SET OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS AND
SHOWERS. THE WARMER AIR ALOFT...AROUND 15000 FT...DEVELOPS A CAPPING
INVERSION LATE AFTERNOON AND EVE AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO SQUASH
CONVECTION AND WOULD NOT EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
LINGER PAST THE EARLY EVE. LIFT REMAINS RATHER SHALLOW PER TIME
HEIGHT ANALYSIS AND THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SUBSIDENCE ABOVE 8-10 KFT.
HOWEVER...THERE IS ALSO A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW
THAT MOVES BY JUST TO OUR N. THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE
WILL SKIRT OUR MORE NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING.
THE HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR IS SHOWING CONSIDERABLE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE AND WILL MAINTAIN SMALL
POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...FAVORING THE SEABREEZE
BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...MID-SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE SHORT
TERM AS BERMUDA HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE COMBINE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
WEAKNESS WHICH HAS BEEN PROGGED OVER THE NE PERIPHERY OF THE GROWING
RIDGE THIS PERIOD HAS WEAKENED IN GUIDANCE...AND THUS EVEN LESS
CHANCE FOR ANY COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA. STILL EXPECT A WIND
SHIFT AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE AREA...BUT ANY ACTUAL TEMP ADVECTION
WILL REMAIN DISPLACED WELL NE OF THE AREA. SO...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY
TURN TO THE NW SUNDAY AND MONDAY...IT WILL DO NOTHING TO PREVENT
TEMPS FROM SOARING TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS. HIGHS BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL RISE INTO THE MID AND UPR 90S...EVEN AROUND 90 AT THE
BEACH...WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID 70S...AROUND 80 AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH NEAR 70 DEWPOINTS WILL
DRIVE HEAT INDEX VALUES TO 100-105 DEGREES...AND IT IS POSSIBLE SOME
AREAS MAY NEED A HEAT ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME THAT IS NOT
BEING FORECAST.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO FORCING FOR CONVECTION...AND A MID-LEVEL
CAP WILL BE PRESENT THANKS TO THE SUBSIDENT RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE SEA
BREEZE COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO DRIVE PARCELS THROUGH THE
CAP...AND SREF PROBS SHOW A GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIP ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FOR THIS REASON WILL MAINTAIN THE
INHERITED SCHC POP EACH AFTN...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
ISOLATED.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT STORY OF THE EXTENDED. LARGE 500MB RIDGE WILL
REMAIN DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THROUGH THE WEEK...WHILE BERMUDA HIGH SPINS
OFFSHORE. THESE TWO FACTORS WILL MAINTAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH DANGEROUS HEAT AT LEAST THROUGH MID-WEEK...AND
HEAT ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE MON/TUE/WED FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES
EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES. LATE WEEK MAY BRING SUBTLE CHANGE AS A MID-
LEVEL LOW...POSSIBLY OF TROPICAL ORIGIN...ROTATES AROUND THE RIDGE
AND WILL TRY TO BREAK IT DOWN ON ITS NORTHERN PERIPHERY. WHILE THE
MAJORITY OF IMPACTS FROM THIS MOISTURE WILL BE NORTH OF THE
AREA...SOME SUBTLE HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE PERIOD SO
WILL SHOW SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS THU/FRI BUT REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL
FOR MID-JUNE. POP WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT MAY
INCREASE LATE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOWERED THICKNESSES ALLOWING
FOR BETTER CONVECTIVE CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A HOT A STICKY DAY TODAY. WEST WINDS WILL GET A BIT GUSTY
IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS SCATTERED CONVECTION
POPPING UP AROUND 17Z...BUT NOT TOO HEAVY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND A
PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL HELP TO KICK THINGS OFF...HOWEVER MOISTURE IS A
BIT LIMITED. ADIABATIC WARMING WILL HELP TO GET TEMPERATURES INTO
THE MID 90S...EVEN FOR THE COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL BE
PINNED. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LITTLE OR NO FOG EXPECTED.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH
MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...NOCTURNAL JETTING WILL WANE THIS MORNING AND
THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS AND EVENTUALLY SEAS TO SUBSIDE. WILL
INITIALIZE WITH A SCEC FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS FOR SEAS UP TO 5 FT
AND SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 20 KT. A SEABREEZE BOUNDARY WILL BE PINNED
RATHER CLOSE TO THE COAST LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVE. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE NW THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVE. SW WINDS WILL VEER TO MORE WESTERLY TONIGHT AS
THE TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE. THE STRONGEST WINDS THIS MORNING...UP TO
20 KT WILL DECREASE TO 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE AND 10 KT
OR LESS OVERNIGHT. SEAS UP TO 4 TO 5 FT THIS MORNING WILL SUBSIDE TO
3 TO 4 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND TO 2 TO 3 FT TONIGHT. A WEAK 10 TO 12
SECOND SWELL WILL REMAIN.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL PERSIST AS THE DOMINANT
SYNOPTIC FEATURE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AND ALTHOUGH SUBTLE
VARIATIONS IN WIND ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO WEAK TROUGHS EACH DAY...SW
WILL BE THE PRIMARY WIND DIRECTION. SUNDAY...THESE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT...AROUND 10 KTS...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT AND LOCAL BACKING DUE
TO THE SEA BREEZE IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. THESE WINDS WILL
INCREASE MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE BERMUDA HIGH...BECOMING AROUND 15 KTS ALL WATERS. SEAS WILL
FEATURE A VARIETY OF WAVE GROUPS...BUT WILL REMAIN OF RATHER LOW
AMPLITUDE. EXPECT PRIMARILY 2 FT SEASON SUNDAY...BUILDING TO 3 FT
MONDAY THANKS TO THE STRONGER WIND-WAVE CONTRIBUTION.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
MID-WEEK...WITH SW WINDS AROUND THIS FEATURE CONTINUING OVER THE
WATERS. THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...SO WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE 10-15 KTS TUESDAY...INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KTS OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER ON WEDNESDAY. THE WAVE SPECTRUM WILL HAVE A VARIETY OF LOW-
AMPLITUDE WAVE GROUPS EACH DAY...BUT THE SW WIND-WAVE WILL INCREASE
WEDNESDAY...DRIVING SEAS FROM 2-3 FT TUESDAY TO 3-4 FT ON
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43
MARINE...RJD/JDW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
336 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD WILL CREATE HOT TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK. HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL EXCEED 100 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND...POTENTIALLY REACHING
105 DEGREES FOR SEVERAL DAYS NEXT WEEK. SOMEWHAT COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS
DOWN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALOFT WILL BRING HIGH
HEAT TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TODAY. ALTHOUGH NO RECORD HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED...LOWER TO MID 90S SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD. EVEN THE BEACHES
SHOULD REACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED 90 DEGREES TODAY. COUPLE THIS WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S AND IT WILL FEEL AS IF IT
IS AROUND 100 DEGREES...UP TO 102. THIS WILL NOT QUITE MEET HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT WILL HEIGHTEN AWARENESS BY REISSUING AN SPS.
MUGGY TONIGHT AS WELL...WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S.
A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL MAKE A PUSH ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVE. AT THE SAME TIME THE SEABREEZE WILL SHARPEN...BUT
AS IT ATTEMPTS TO PUSH INLAND...IT SHOULD ENCOUNTER RESISTANCE GIVEN
THE W AND NW FLOW IN THE LOWEST 5 KFT. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE PINNED VERY NEAR THE COAST. ENHANCED CONVERGENCE
ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES COUPLED WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT
IN THE COLUMN...NEAR TWO INCHES...AND MIXED CAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO
1500 J/KG...SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SET OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS AND
SHOWERS. THE WARMER AIR ALOFT...AROUND 15000 FT...DEVELOPS A CAPPING
INVERSION LATE AFTERNOON AND EVE AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO SQUASH
CONVECTION AND WOULD NOT EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
LINGER PAST THE EARLY EVE. LIFT REMAINS RATHER SHALLOW PER TIME
HEIGHT ANALYSIS AND THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SUBSIDENCE ABOVE 8-10 KFT.
HOWEVER...THERE IS ALSO A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW
THAT MOVES BY JUST TO OUR N. THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE
WILL SKIRT OUR MORE NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING.
THE HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR IS SHOWING CONSIDERABLE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE AND WILL MAINTAIN SMALL
POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...FAVORING THE SEABREEZE
BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...MID-SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE SHORT
TERM AS BERMUDA HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE COMBINE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
WEAKNESS WHICH HAS BEEN PROGGED OVER THE NE PERIPHERY OF THE GROWING
RIDGE THIS PERIOD HAS WEAKENED IN GUIDANCE...AND THUS EVEN LESS
CHANCE FOR ANY COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA. STILL EXPECT A WIND
SHIFT AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE AREA...BUT ANY ACTUAL TEMP ADVECTION
WILL REMAIN DISPLACED WELL NE OF THE AREA. SO...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY
TURN TO THE NW SUNDAY AND MONDAY...IT WILL DO NOTHING TO PREVENT
TEMPS FROM SOARING TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS. HIGHS BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL RISE INTO THE MID AND UPR 90S...EVEN AROUND 90 AT THE
BEACH...WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID 70S...AROUND 80 AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH NEAR 70 DEWPOINTS WILL
DRIVE HEAT INDEX VALUES TO 100-105 DEGREES...AND IT IS POSSIBLE SOME
AREAS MAY NEED A HEAT ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME THAT IS NOT
BEING FORECAST.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO FORCING FOR CONVECTION...AND A MID-LEVEL
CAP WILL BE PRESENT THANKS TO THE SUBSIDENT RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE SEA
BREEZE COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO DRIVE PARCELS THROUGH THE
CAP...AND SREF PROBS SHOW A GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIP ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FOR THIS REASON WILL MAINTAIN THE
INHERITED SCHC POP EACH AFTN...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
ISOLATED.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT STORY OF THE EXTENDED. LARGE 500MB RIDGE WILL
REMAIN DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THROUGH THE WEEK...WHILE BERMUDA HIGH SPINS
OFFSHORE. THESE TWO FACTORS WILL MAINTAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH DANGEROUS HEAT AT LEAST THROUGH MID-WEEK...AND
HEAT ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE MON/TUE/WED FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES
EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES. LATE WEEK MAY BRING SUBTLE CHANGE AS A MID-
LEVEL LOW...POSSIBLY OF TROPICAL ORIGIN...ROTATES AROUND THE RIDGE
AND WILL TRY TO BREAK IT DOWN ON ITS NORTHERN PERIPHERY. WHILE THE
MAJORITY OF IMPACTS FROM THIS MOISTURE WILL BE NORTH OF THE
AREA...SOME SUBTLE HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE PERIOD SO
WILL SHOW SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS THU/FRI BUT REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL
FOR MID-JUNE. POP WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT MAY
INCREASE LATE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOWERED THICKNESSES ALLOWING
FOR BETTER CONVECTIVE CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA.
EXPECT A GRADUAL CLEARING OF SKIES AS VFR PREVAILS OVERNIGHT AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 12 KT PREVAIL. WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND
INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT AND MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD TRANSITION FROM SCT TO
FEW. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT VFR WITH AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG THE SEABREEZE. AS A RESULT COULD
SEE EXTREMELY BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AOB 15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
POSSIBLE EARLY. INTO THE EVENING HOURS...CONVECTION WILL TAPER OFF
AND WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AOB 5 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH
MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...NOCTURNAL JETTING WILL WANE THIS MORNING AND
THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS AND EVENTUALLY SEAS TO SUBSIDE. WILL
INITIALIZE WITH A SCEC FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS FOR SEAS UP TO 5 FT
AND SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 20 KT. A SEABREEZE BOUNDARY WILL BE PINNED
RATHER CLOSE TO THE COAST LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVE. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE NW THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVE. SW WINDS WILL VEER TO MORE WESTERLY TONIGHT AS
THE TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE. THE STRONGEST WINDS THIS MORNING...UP TO
20 KT WILL DECREASE TO 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE AND 10 KT
OR LESS OVERNIGHT. SEAS UP TO 4 TO 5 FT THIS MORNING WILL SUBSIDE TO
3 TO 4 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND TO 2 TO 3 FT TONIGHT. A WEAK 10 TO 12
SECOND SWELL WILL REMAIN.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL PERSIST AS THE DOMINANT
SYNOPTIC FEATURE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AND ALTHOUGH SUBTLE
VARIATIONS IN WIND ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO WEAK TROUGHS EACH DAY...SW
WILL BE THE PRIMARY WIND DIRECTION. SUNDAY...THESE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT...AROUND 10 KTS...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT AND LOCAL BACKING DUE
TO THE SEA BREEZE IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. THESE WINDS WILL
INCREASE MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE BERMUDA HIGH...BECOMING AROUND 15 KTS ALL WATERS. SEAS WILL
FEATURE A VARIETY OF WAVE GROUPS...BUT WILL REMAIN OF RATHER LOW
AMPLITUDE. EXPECT PRIMARILY 2 FT SEASON SUNDAY...BUILDING TO 3 FT
MONDAY THANKS TO THE STRONGER WIND-WAVE CONTRIBUTION.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
MID-WEEK...WITH SW WINDS AROUND THIS FEATURE CONTINUING OVER THE
WATERS. THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...SO WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE 10-15 KTS TUESDAY...INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KTS OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER ON WEDNESDAY. THE WAVE SPECTRUM WILL HAVE A VARIETY OF LOW-
AMPLITUDE WAVE GROUPS EACH DAY...BUT THE SW WIND-WAVE WILL INCREASE
WEDNESDAY...DRIVING SEAS FROM 2-3 FT TUESDAY TO 3-4 FT ON
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...RJD
MARINE...RJD/JDW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
913 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 906 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS DWINDLING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AHEAD OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT...LOCATED FROM PEMBINA TO
GRAFTON...STRETCHING SOUTHWEST INTO GARRISON TO NEAR GRASSY
BUTTE. CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE FRONT SAGGING
SOUTH TO THE BORDER THROUGH 06Z. EXPECT A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AFTER
SUNSET.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 515 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF WEAK 3HR PRESSURE FALLS
CONFINED MOSTLY TO SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A 90KT-100KT JETSTREAK PER LATEST
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA
ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SECONDARY/WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHING
FROM BRANDON MANITOBA/CYBR...TO MINOT/KMOT...AND WEST TO
SIDNEY/KSDY MONTANA. RESULTANT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS PULSATING UP AND DOWN PER LATEST REGIONAL/KMOT RADAR
CONTINUES OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL. THE LATEST HRRR VERIFYING WELL
AND REMAINS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH
WEAKENS/DISSIPATES THE SHOWERS THROUGH 03Z MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO SAG TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER BETWEEN 06Z-09Z WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. INHERITED FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN DRY AND
COOL WEATHER FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.
CURRENTLY...QUASI-ZONAL/CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A SECONDARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AS
HIGH RES MODELS EARLIER INDICATED. HRRR AND 4KM NMM WRF GENERATE
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST
OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SO EXPECT WEATHER TRENDING DRY THROUGH THE
EVENING.
FLOW ALOFT REMAINS QUASI-ZONAL WITH DRY AND COOL SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. RESULTANT WEATHER WILL BE PLEASANT...HIGHS 65-75...LIGHT
WINDS...AND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY LOOKS ACTIVE WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVERYDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS. INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...WITH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOWING MINIMAL CAPE AND SHOWALTER
INDICES ABOVE ZERO. THEREFORE...REMOVED THE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY...WITH PRIMARILY RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY.
WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK...SEVERAL FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS
WILL SWING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVERY DAY OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
ADDITIONALLY...WITH SEVERAL COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THIS
WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 906 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
712 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 709 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
CONVECTION IS EXITING THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN FCST AREA AT 00Z. COORD
WITH ABR/DLH/MPX AND WILL REMOVE POPS THE REST OF THE NIGHT PERIOD
FOR MN FCST AREA AS THREAT FOR ANY RAIN IS OVER. MINOR CONVECTION
NEAR MINOT DUE TO SFC HEATING ON EDGE OF COOL POOL ALOFT IS
WEAKENING AS EXPECTED. DID TRIM LOW POP TO JUST INCLUDE NW
BENSON/TOWNER COUNTY THRU 02Z AND EVEN THEN THINK CHANCES FOR
ANYTHING TO SURVIVE THAT LONG IS QUITE LOW. OTHERWISE DRY TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
CURRENT SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS AXIS OF A 1000 PLUS J/KG MXD LYR
CAPE ALONG THE SD/MN STATE LINE WITH 500 TO 1000 J/KG EXTENDING
INTO CENTRAL MN AND CLIPPING THE FAR SE...HOWEVER THAT AREA IS NOW
CLOUD COVERED AND INSTABILITY SHOULD DECREASE THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTN. RADAR TRENDS SHOW REMAINING ACTIVITY MOVING INTO
NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WITH EASTERN ND CLEARING OUT AND
RECEIVING SUNSHINE. LAST HRRR UPDATE FOR 1 PM FCST HAD GOOD HANDLE
ON THESE TRENDS AND WILL NOT NEED MUCH CHANGE...BUT WILL UPDATE
NEAR TERM WITH LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE PRIOR TO FCST ISSUANCE. THERE
IS CLEARNING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND SOME CU AND MID LEVEL CLOUD
EVIDENT AS A NORTHERN VORT MAX MOVES IN TO SRN MB...HOWEVER THERE
IS VIRTUALLY NO CAPE IN THE AREA. A CELL DID DEVELOP NORTH OF
MINOT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE MORE THAN ISOLD TO WIDELY
SCT. MOST LIKELY AREA FOR ANY ISOLD STORMS WOULD BE DVL REGION UP
TO THE INTL BORDER.
SFC HIGH DROPS INTO REGION ON MONDAY AND SHOULD BRING SUNNY SKIES
BUT A COOL CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S DURING THE DAY...AND CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 40S AS
THE SFC HIGH IS RIGHT OVER THE VALLEY AT 06Z TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
TUE AND WED...WARM ADVECTION PRECIP SPREADS MAINLY ACROSS SD
DURING THE DAY TUE AND LIFTS IN TO OUR CWA BY LATE TUE AFTN.
SHOWALTERS REMAIN 4 OR GREATER WITH MEAN LYR CAPES LESS THAN 100
IN THE FAR SOUTH...SO HAVE CHANGED PRECIP TYPE OVER TO SHRA.
PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO PULL PRECIP OUT OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST LATE WED
AFTN INTO WED NIGHT.
BEYOND TUE/WED SHRA ACTIVITY...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION WILL COME ON FRIDAY. THE GFS IS PROGGING A STRONG SFC
LOW AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THE ECMWF ALSO HAS
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SHOWERS AND STORMS...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS
UNSTABLE AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH DEEP MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD START
OUT A BIT BELOW NORMAL AND WARM TO NEAR NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 709 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
VFR THRU THE PD. EXPECT A LIGHT WIND TONIGHT..PREDOMINATELY
NORTH-NORTHWEST BUT UNDER 8KTS. DIURNAL CU WILL DEVELOP QUITE FAST
MONDAY WITH BKN VFR DECK EXPECTED MUCH OF MONDAY DAYTIME ALONG
WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 8 TO 15 KTS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...DK/SPEICHER
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
234 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. THE LATEST CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER IN
DEVELOPING CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE HRRR STILL
DEVELOPS CONVECTION BY 3 PM.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...EXPECT AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COLD FRONT. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE WITH HAIL/WIND...BUT THE LACK OF STRONGER DEEP
LAYERED SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE. THERE WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR STRONGER/PERSISTENT STORMS GIVEN PWATS CLOSE
TO 1.5 INCHES. THE CONVECTION SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST AND
SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH ANY SEVERE THREAT GONE BY 6Z WITH A FAIRLY
WEAK LLJ.
ON SUNDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD AID CONVECTION MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE WILL
BE SOME INSTABILITY AND A BIT MORE SHEAR THAN TODAY...AND THERE IS
A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THE SOUTH.
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...THE CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF THE
SOUTH WITH STABLE/COOLER AIR BUILDING IN.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
ON MONDAY...EXPECT A DRY AND COOL DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.
FOR TUE...RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN IN THE WEST AND SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL MOVE IN BY AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS OR STORMS AFFECTING THE WEST...BUT DEEPER
INSTABILITY/MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR
AREA.
FOR WED THROUGH SAT...THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH A ZONAL
BECOMING NW FLOW PATTER ALOFT AND A CENTRAL PLAINS LOW GENERATING
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA TUE NIGHT INTO
WED. MODELS DIVERGE BEYOND THIS SYSTEM...WITH GFS SHOWING A MORE
AMPLIFIED SW RIDGE PROVIDING A BREAK IN ACTIVITY ON THU. GFS THEN
SHOWS A TRANSITION TO SW FLOW ALOFT AND MORE ACTIVITY DURING THE
END OF THE WEEK. OVERALL MAIN THEME IS AN ACTIVE WEEK WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF BREAKS DUE TO MODEL INCONSISTENCIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN THIS LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BE THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS A FRONT APPROACHES
EASTERN ND FROM THE WEST. WILL PUT A MENTION OF TSRA IN DVL FOR THE
MID AFTN...BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE RRV AND
EXPECTING MORE ISOLD STORMS IN THE VALLEY...THUS WILL GO WITH VCTS
FOR GFK AND FAR. CONFIDENCE FURTHER LOWERS AS FRONT MOVES INTO
MN...PETERING OUT ACTIVITY BEFORE REACHING BJI. WILL KEEP VCTS IN
FOR TVF. WINDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT TO A NORTHERLY COMPONENT
FOR TOMORROW.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/SPEICHER
AVIATION...SPEICHER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1223 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
NO MAJOR UPDATES WITH THE EARLY AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.
INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE ALONG TO AHEAD OF SOUTHEASTERLY
MOVING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED FROM SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA NORTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN SOURIS RIVER BASIN EAST OF
MINOT. LATEST HRRR INDICATES CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN NOW
AND 20Z ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GRIDS REFLECT THIS WELL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1009 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
TEMPERED DOWN POPS FOR THIS MORNING WITH ONLY A FEW LIGHT RETURNS
ALONG TO SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. INCREASING CHANCES AND
COVERAGE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
COLD FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHEAST COUPLED WITH INCREASING DIURNAL
INSTABILITY. 0-6KM WIND SHEAR OF 30-40KTS ALONG TO BEHIND THE
COLD FROPA WILL SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. TIMING APPEARS ANYWHERE FROM 19-21Z FOR INITIATION BASED
ON HIGH RES MODELS.
OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANGES FROM THE INHERITED FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER THAN TO
BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 11 UTC...AS THE POTENTIAL AND
PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED IN THE 08-10 UTC HRRR
ITERATIONS...AND PERHAPS JUST SLIGHTLY WEST IN THE 06 UTC NAM
COMPARED TO ITS 00 UTC RUN...ALL COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS AND
ONGOING FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS INVOLVE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND SEVERE POTENTIAL AS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE STATE.
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHWEST
ND...STRETCHING FROM SOUTH OF WILLISTON TO JUST NORTH OF MINOT.
THE STRONGEST STORMS OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN CLOSE TO THE
FRONT...MAINLY OVER/NEAR MCKENZIE COUNTY ALTHOUGH THEY HAVE NOT
REACHED SEVERE CRITERIA. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE STATE TODAY AND SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S CONTRIBUTING TO SFC BASED
CAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF OUR
CWA. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30KT
TO 50KT RANGE BY 00Z SUN PER GFS. SPC HAS KEPT THIS REGION IN
MARGINAL RISK AREA FOR SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY FOR LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS...WITH THE LIMITING FACTOR BEING LACK OF LARGE SCALE
ASCENT.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH ALONG THE STALLED FRONT COINCIDENT WITH RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF 90KT JET MOVING ACROSS ND AND SOUTHERN CANADA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM.
THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY PROPAGATING
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
GENERALLY CONFINED TO SOUTH OF US HIGHWAY 2...AND GREATEST ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WHERE RESIDUAL MID TO UPPER
50S DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST. GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY...SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED SUNDAY. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY...BEFORE
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE PROPAGATES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...YIELDING THE NEXT FAVORABLE TIMEFRAME FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. GIVEN
THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS...BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S ARE FAVORED FOR THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALTHOUGH BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR ANY LOCATIONS DIRECTLY UNDER
THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE
STATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AND
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING...HAVE KEPT VCTS IN MAINLY FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCLUDING KBIS AND KJMS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
104 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 104 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
MAIN CHANGES WITH UPDATE WERE TO ADJUST POPS BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS...WHICH INVOLVE A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED INTO
MCKENZIE COUNTY AND ANOTHER AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO
SOUTHWEST ND. BLENDED POPS TOWARD HRRR GUIDANCE WHICH SEEMED TO
HAVE BEST HANDLE ON COVERAGE. SPC MESO PAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW
STRONG 0-6KM SHEAR ON ORDER OF 40-50KTS ACROSS THE WEST WITH MU
CAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG. SPOTTER REPORT ON STORM IN MCKENZIE
REPORTED SMALLER THAN PEA SIZE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 921 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF
NORTH DAKOTA WITH INCREASING BULK SHEAR MOVING IN FROM EASTERN
MONTANA. FORECAST CONVECTION FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA NEVER MATERIALIZED EXCEPT FOR ONE STRONGER
CELL OVER DIVIDE COUNTY. HIRES MODELS HAD A HARD TIME WITH THIS
CONVECTION AND ARE STILL TRYING TO FIRE CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT AND TRACKING IT ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ATMOSPHERE
HERE IS STILL SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AND CAN NOT DISCOUNT A SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM. BUT HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT AND JUST KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE NORTHWEST
AND CENTRAL. THERE IS STILL A RIGH MOVING SUPERCELLS OVER
SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN THAT COULD MOVE INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
LATE THIS EVENING IF IT CONTINUES TO HOLD TOGETHER.
HIRES MODEL DO SEEM TO BE CAPTURING THE CONVECTION THAT FIRED OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN MONTANA EARLY THIS EVENING.
CONVECTION IS STILL HOLDING TOGETHER AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST
MONTANA. STILL MUCAPES ABOVE 1000J/KG OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
WITH BULK SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS MOVING INTO THIS SAME AREA. WITH
STABILIZING LOWER ATMOSPHERE THIS EVENING...AND A STRONGER CAP AS
YOU MOVE INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL...THINK THE RISK OF SEVERE
CONVECTION WILL BE WANING AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THUS WILL REMOVE THE SEVERE WORDING BUT WILL KEEP SOME HIGHER POPS
OVER THE SOUTHWEST LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015
UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OVER FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND EASTERN MONTANA BUT MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE SLOWER TO STEEPEN. BISMARCK 00 UTC 13JUN SOUNDING
SHOWS A PRETTY GOOD CAP BETWEEN 850 AND 700MB WITH QUITE DRY AIR
ABOVE THE CAP. CURRENT CONVECTION IS VERY ISOLATED ALONG THE PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH AND HIRES MODELS HAVE BEEN OVERDOING THE CONVECTION
EXTENDING SOUTH INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND BACK WEST INTO
MONTANA. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS LOWER THIS EVENING BASED ON LATEST
RADAR. STILL KEPT A MENTION OF SEVERE THIS EVENING WEST INTO NORTH
CENTRAL DUE TO THE VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND BULK SHEAR WHICH WILL
BE INCREASING THIS EVENING WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. IF CONVECTION FIRES OVER EASTERN MONTANA THIS EVENING
COULD STILL SEE SOME STRONGER STORMS MOVE INTO THE FAR WEST LATE
THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015
MAIN HIGHLIGHT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY CONTINUES
TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD
OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
LATEST SUITE OF SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH THE SURFACE ANALYSIS
PINPOINTS THE COLD FRONT FROM NEAR CYBU/NIPAWIN SASKATCHEWAN TO
CYQR/REGINA SASKATCHEWAN...STRETCHING SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL
MONTANA...JUST WEST OF GLASGOW. A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH WAS LOCATED
FROM NEAR WOLF POINT TO JORDAN MONTANA. LINE OF CUMULUS CLOUDS
DEVELOPING SOUTH INTO CROSBY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH A PATCHY
CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WITH DEWPOINTS TO NEAR 60F COMMON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DEEP
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LACKING...BUT SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE
OF 2000 J/KG WITH 30KT TO 35KT 0-6KM SHEAR ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. THE LATEST HRRR MAINTAINS ISOLATED CONVECTION INITIATING BETWEEN
21Z AND 22Z IN THE NORTHWEST WITH SOME SEMBLANCE OF A LINE
DEVELOPING FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE PRE FRONTAL TROUGH BY 23Z.
WOULD APPEAR THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL GENERATE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AS IT MOVES ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WITH CAPE/SHEAR ALIGNMENT AND COLD
FRONTAL/PRE TROUGH TIMING LATE THIS AFTERNOON...COULD SEE A COUPLE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING WIDESPREAD AT THIS
TIME. THE GFS IS ABOUT 3 TO 5 HOURS FASTER THAN THE NAM12 SATURDAY
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER
DESPITE TIMING DIFFERENCES...THE MAIN MESSAGE OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT SATURDAY WITH
A FEW POSSIBLY SEVERE...REMAINS ON TRACK.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A MARGINAL RISK
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY EVENING ALONG A
SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT (SEE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION
ABOVE).
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES GENERATING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.
AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION ABOVE...A SOUTHEASTWARD
MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF MY CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST. A FEW SEVERE
STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN 1-2K J/KG OF MUCAPE AND 40KTS
OF 0-6KM SHEAR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE MAINLY
ACROSS MY SOUTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE FRONT
STALLS AND ENERGY ALOFT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. INSTABILITY
DECREASES AFTER 06Z SUNDAY MORNING AND SO WILL THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER.
LULL IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTH INTO NORTH DAKOTA. THEREAFTER A SERIES OF EMBEDDED
WAVES MOVING EAST THROUGH THE REGION COUPLED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
JET ALOFT WILL SEE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK. OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
LOW FOR MID-JUNE AS THE JET ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A COOLER AIRMASS
TO NUDGE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK
MAINLY IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 104 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
ALTHOUGH BRIEF MVFR CONDITONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR ANY LOCATIONS
DIRECTLY UNDER THUNDERSTORMS. AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
STATE...WINDS WILL VEER FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHWEST. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A VCTS IN ALL TERMINALS. KJMS
WILL NOT HAVE A THREAT UNTIL AFTER 18Z SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD...RATHER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AT TIMES.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JNS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JNS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1047 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AREAWIDE...WITH A BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH. UPPER
HIGH EDGES IN FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT EDGES
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA TUESDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY.
&&
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
...1030 PM UPDATE... CURRENT FORECAST IS RIGHT ON TRACK. HIGH RES
SHORT TERM MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A SHORTWAVE CROSSING TO OUR
NORTH TONIGHT. THE CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST SHOULD BE GOOD. IT
IS POSSIBLE NOTHING WILL RESULT LIKE THE SHOWERS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MAKE ANY CHANGES.
... 8 PM UPDATE... CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MINIMAL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...AND ANY STORMS THAT DID DEVELOP HAD A HARD TIME REACHING
THE FREEZING LEVEL. RUC AND HRRR KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE NORTH AS ANOTHER IMPULSE IF FORECASTED. SO WON/T MAKE
MANY IF ANY CHANGES TO WHAT CURRENTLY HAVE. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
AND RE-EVALUATE. MAY NEED TO LOWER OVERNIGHT POPS.
...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE WARM AND HUMID WEATHER PATTERN
REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...AND UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. DEW
POINTS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE
REGION...AND WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES TOPPING THE RIDGE AT
TIMES...CONTINUING TO SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES.
ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH AT
17Z...WILL HELP TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PARTICULARLY
IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...TO
BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
ACROSS THE NORTH. ACROSS THE NORTH IS ALSO THE BEST LOCATION FOR
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER...WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE...AS 30-40
KTS UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN PLACE. OF COURSE...A SEVERE STORM
DRIFTING SOUTHEAST INTO OTHER PARTS OF THE CWA SUCH AS CENTRAL
WV...CANNOT BE RULED COMPLETELY OUT...AND ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
DRIFTING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA WILL ONLY HELP TO TRIGGER
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. IN
ADDITION...VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE REALIZED WITH
ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS. THIS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING ISSUES IF REPETITIVE STORMS HIT THE SAME LOCATION. GOOD
NEWS IS THAT WITH THE FLOW...STORMS WILL AT LEAST MOVE ALONG.
SO...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES...BUT IN COMING DAYS...AREA
COULD BECOME PRIMED FOR ISSUES.
THE WARM AND HUMID PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY...WITH
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH HOLDS FIRM OVER THE SERN STATES THIS
PERIOD...WHILE UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGHS TRAVERSE THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY AND NERN STATES ALONG THE BOTTOM OF THE WESTERLIES ON THE
N SIDE OF THE HIGH. THIS PLACES THE FCST AREA IN A MOISTURE
GRADIENT WITH PW VALUES CLOSE TO TWO INCHES ACROSS THE N VS 1 TO
1.5 INCHES TO THE S...IN THE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
HIGH.
THE UPPER HIGH BULGES A BIT NWD MON NT BETWEEN S/W/S. TOGETHER
WITH THE DIURNAL MIN...MOST OF THE NT LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY
QUIET. ONE S/W TROUGH CROSSES TUE...ARRIVING EARLY SO THIS DAY
LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE...WITH THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST
LIKELY ACROSS THE N.
THE BOTTOM OF THE WESTERLIES FLATTENS OUT TUE NT IN THE WAKE OF
THE S/W SO THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS CARRIED
THROUGHOUT THE NT. THE HIGH DOES BULGE A BIT N ON WED IN THE
RELATIVE ABSENCE OF S/W/S...AND PW VALUES LOWER TO 1.5 OR LESS
EVEN ACROSS PARTS OF THE N. SO CARRIED A GENERIC CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION BASED MAINLY ON DIURNAL HEATING IN THE WARM AND STILL
SOMEWHAT HUMID AIR ON THE MOVE...ALONG WITH CONTINUITY AND ISC.
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO MET/SREF/PREVIOUS WITH THE MAV LOOKING A
BIT TOO LOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WE HAVE LOST THE GFS SOLN SHOWING A BREAK IN THE WEATHER FRI INTO
SAT. WHILE A LARGE NRN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL CROSSES ERN
CANADA THU INTO THU NT...IT DOES NOT DIG AS FAR S AS PREVIOUSLY
PROGGED...AND THE COLD FRONT AND CANADIAN HIGH DO NOT GET AS FAR
S EITHER...SO THE FCST AREA STAYS IN THE SOUP. IT DOES STILL SHOW
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE DEEP S LIFTING OUT AND REACHING
THE FCST AREA THU...SO THIS STILL LOOKS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY.
STILL TRIED TO STAY AWAY FROM WPC CAT POPS. BUT HAVE LIKELY MUCH
OF THE DAY.
THE ECMWF HOLDS THAT S/W TROUGH BACK UNTIL FRI NT/SAT. OTHERWISE
THE MODELS BASICALLY SHOW A CONTINUATION OF THE GENERAL PATTERN.
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH SLOWLY EASES OFF THE SE COAST...WHICH ALLOWS
THE BOTTOM OF THE WESTERLIES TO SAG A BIT FARTHER SWD...INTO THE
FCST AREA...NEXT WEEKEND.
LITTLE CHANGES NEED TO TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE MOSTLY A BLEND OF
PREVIOUS...WPC AND THE MEX.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF VCTS FOR KPBK...KCKB...AND KEKN OVERNIGHT AS
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IF FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS
TIME CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO BE INCLUDED IN THE 00Z
TAFS.
FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE TRICKY TONIGHT...AND WILL BE SOMEWHAT
DEPENDENT ON AREAS THAT RECEIVE PRECIPITATION TODAY. DON/T EXPECT
WIDESPREAD IFR FOG. THUS...MORE WIDESPREAD IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. DEVELOPMENT AND EXTENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT.
.AFTER 00 MONDAY...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF MORNING FOG WILL DEPENDS OF LOCATIONS THAT
GET RAIN.
&&
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...FB/SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...JSH/TRM
AVIATION...FB/SL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
843 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AREAWIDE...WITH A BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH. UPPER
HIGH EDGES IN FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT EDGES
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA TUESDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
...8 PM UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE BEEN MINIMAL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND ANY STORMS THAT
DID DEVELOP HAD A HARD TIME REACHING THE FREEZING LEVEL. RUC AND
HRRR KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NORTH AS ANOTHER
IMPULSE IF FORECASTES. SO WON/T MAKE MANY IF ANY CHANGES TO WHAT
CURRENTLY HAVE. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH AND RE-EVALUATE. MAY NEED
TO LOWER OVERNIGHT POPS.
...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE WARM AND HUMID WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND UPPER
RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE REGION...AND WITH UPPER
DISTURBANCES TOPPING THE RIDGE AT TIMES...CONTINUING TO SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ZONES.
ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH AT
17Z...WILL HELP TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PARTICULARLY
IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...TO
BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
ACROSS THE NORTH. ACROSS THE NORTH IS ALSO THE BEST LOCATION FOR
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER...WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE...AS 30-40
KTS UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN PLACE. OF COURSE...A SEVERE STORM
DRIFTING SOUTHEAST INTO OTHER PARTS OF THE CWA SUCH AS CENTRAL
WV...CANNOT BE RULED COMPLETELY OUT...AND ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
DRIFTING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA WILL ONLY HELP TO TRIGGER
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. IN
ADDITION...VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE REALIZED WITH
ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS. THIS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING ISSUES IF REPETITIVE STORMS HIT THE SAME LOCATION. GOOD
NEWS IS THAT WITH THE FLOW...STORMS WILL AT LEAST MOVE ALONG.
SO...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES...BUT IN COMING DAYS...AREA
COULD BECOME PRIMED FOR ISSUES.
THE WARM AND HUMID PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY...WITH
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH HOLDS FIRM OVER THE SERN STATES THIS
PERIOD...WHILE UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGHS TRAVERSE THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY AND NERN STATES ALONG THE BOTTOM OF THE WESTERLIES ON THE
N SIDE OF THE HIGH. THIS PLACES THE FCST AREA IN A MOISTURE
GRADIENT WITH PW VALUES CLOSE TO TWO INCHES ACROSS THE N VS 1 TO
1.5 INCHES TO THE S...IN THE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
HIGH.
THE UPPER HIGH BULGES A BIT NWD MON NT BETWEEN S/W/S. TOGETHER
WITH THE DIURNAL MIN...MOST OF THE NT LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY
QUIET. ONE S/W TROUGH CROSSES TUE...ARRIVING EARLY SO THIS DAY
LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE...WITH THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST
LIKELY ACROSS THE N.
THE BOTTOM OF THE WESTERLIES FLATTENS OUT TUE NT IN THE WAKE OF
THE S/W SO THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS CARRIED
THROUGHOUT THE NT. THE HIGH DOES BULGE A BIT N ON WED IN THE
RELATIVE ABSENCE OF S/W/S...AND PW VALUES LOWER TO 1.5 OR LESS
EVEN ACROSS PARTS OF THE N. SO CARRIED A GENERIC CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION BASED MAINLY ON DIURNAL HEATING IN THE WARM AND STILL
SOMEWHAT HUMID AIR ON THE MOVE...ALONG WITH CONTINUITY AND ISC.
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO MET/SREF/PREVIOUS WITH THE MAV LOOKING A
BIT TOO LOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WE HAVE LOST THE GFS SOLN SHOWING A BREAK IN THE WEATHER FRI INTO
SAT. WHILE A LARGE NRN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL CROSSES ERN
CANADA THU INTO THU NT...IT DOES NOT DIG AS FAR S AS PREVIOUSLY
PROGGED...AND THE COLD FRONT AND CANADIAN HIGH DO NOT GET AS FAR
S EITHER...SO THE FCST AREA STAYS IN THE SOUP. IT DOES STILL SHOW
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE DEEP S LIFTING OUT AND REACHING
THE FCST AREA THU...SO THIS STILL LOOKS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY.
STILL TRIED TO STAY AWAY FROM WPC CAT POPS. BUT HAVE LIKELY MUCH
OF THE DAY.
THE ECMWF HOLDS THAT S/W TROUGH BACK UNTIL FRI NT/SAT. OTHERWISE
THE MODELS BASICALLY SHOW A CONTINUATION OF THE GENERAL PATTERN.
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH SLOWLY EASES OFF THE SE COAST...WHICH ALLOWS
THE BOTTOM OF THE WESTERLIES TO SAG A BIT FARTHER SWD...INTO THE
FCST AREA...NEXT WEEKEND.
LITTLE CHANGES NEED TO TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE MOSTLY A BLEND OF
PREVIOUS...WPC AND THE MEX.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF VCTS FOR KPBK...KCKB...AND KEKN OVERNIGHT AS
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IF FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS
TIME CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO BE INCLUDED IN THE 00Z
TAFS.
FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE TRICKY TONIGHT...AND WILL BE SOMEWHAT
DEPENDENT ON AREAS THAT RECEIVE PRECIPITATION TODAY. DON/T EXPECT
WIDESPREAD IFR FOG. THUS...MORE WIDESPREAD IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. DEVELOPMENT AND EXTENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT.
.AFTER 00 MONDAY...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF MORNING FOG WILL DEPENDS OF LOCATIONS THAT
GET RAIN.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FB
NEAR TERM...FB/SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...JSH/TRM
AVIATION...FB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
949 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST THAT SOME ACTIVITY
MAY CONTINUE TO FESTER OVERNIGHT AS A DEEP TROPICAL AIRMASS
REMAINS IN PLACE BUT WILL LOWER POPS SOME AS COVERAGE SHOULD NOT
BE MORE THAN 30 PERCENT OR SO.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
BUT THE MAIN STORY THIS WEEK WILL BE THE TROPICAL SYSTEM LIFTING
NORTH NORTHWEST THROUGH THE GULF. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
TRACK NEAR OR OVER OUR FORECAST AREA AROUND MIDWEEK WITH A HIGH
LIKLIHOOD OF HEAVY AND POTENTIALLY FLOODING RAINFALL NEAR ITS
TRACK.
UPDATE ON THE WAY.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....05
PLATE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
759 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN PARKED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. PENNSYLVANIA WILL REMAIN THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER RIDGE WITH A SURFACE FRONT OSCILLATING
OVER THE STATE. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING WITH IT A CHANCE
OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST
DAYS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
09Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES DYING COLD FRONT ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR.
PARENT SHORTWAVE HAS ALREADY PASSED NORTH OF THE STATE...LEAVING
THE FRONT TO STALL OUT ACROSS CENTRAL PA TODAY...ROUGHLY FROM KDUJ
TO KMDT BASED ON NR TERM MDLS.
OVERRUNNING OF QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AT 09Z. LATEST NEAR TERM MDL DATA
SUGGESTS THIS AREA OF SHRA...AT NOSE OF A WEAKENING LL JET...WILL
SLIDE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PA DURING THE LATE AM AND
EARLY AFTN. CAN/T EVEN RULE OUT A TSRA THIS AM OVR SOMERSET/BEDFORD
COS...WHERE RAP/NAM CAPES RANGE BTWN 500-1000 J/KG.
LATEST RAP OUTPUT SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER AND SCT SHOWERS THRU
EARLY AFTN WILL HOLD DOWN TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE
CWA. HOWEVER...SOME BRIGHTENING EXPECTED BY MID AFTN...AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC LL JET PASS EAST OF THE AREA. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR SCT LATE DAY TSRA ACROSS THE SW COUNTIES...WHERE GEFS
CAPES TOP OUT NR 1500 J/KG. WEAK SHEAR PROFILES AND LIMITED DCAPE
IMPLY A LOW CHC OF SVR WEATHER. ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE
CWA...EARLY LOW CLOUDS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A PARTLY SUNNY SKIES BY
AFTN...AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND COLD FRONT.
ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS INDICATE POTENTIAL HIGH TEMPS FROM THE U70S TO
M80S...GIVEN ENOUGH SUNSHINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVR THE STATE TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO FAIR WX FOR MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...CAN/T RULE
OUT A STRAY SHRA/TSRA IN VICINITY OF STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY LYING
FROM THE NW MTNS INTO THE SC MTNS.
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH SUNDAY...PLACING
THE ENTIRE CWA IN THE WARM/UNSTABLE AIR MASS S OF FRONT. A BAND OF
MODERATELY STRONG MID LVL FLOW...COMBINED WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY IN ENS/OPER MDLS...IMPLIES A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR WX SUN
AFTN/EVE. MDL 8H TEMPS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF MAX TEMPS IN THE U70S TO
M80S SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST...AS THE PROVERBIAL RING
OF FIRE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE SOUTHEAST CONUS UPPER RIDGE
WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A FAIR AMT
OF MDL CONSENSUS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRYING TUES NIGHT/WED
AM...AS SFC HIGH PASSES NORTH OF PA AND QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS
SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF THE STATE. UNSETTLED WX APPEARS LIKELY TO
RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
POPS INDICATED UPON RETURN OF ANOMALOUS PWATS.
AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN THIS
PATTERN...AS WELL AS ABOVE NORMAL MIN TEMPS BASED ON WELL ABOVE
NORMAL PW. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE QUITE SUMMERLIKE...WITH VERY
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS AND DAILY CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL
CONVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL PA
BEFORE STALLING THIS AFT ROUGHLY FROM KDUJ TO KMDT.
NORTH OF THE FRONT /KBFD/...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...LIFTING TO VFR AROUND 18Z. LOWER CIGS
HAVE ALSO WORKED INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS FROM KJST-KUNV-KIPT.
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY MID/LATE MORNING FOR KUNV-KIPT...WHILE KJST
WILL REMAIN IN THE SOUP WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS A NW-SE
ORIENTED LL JET INTERACTS WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EARLY IN THE
DAY...SCT SHRA WILL WORK INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS/SC MTNS. AN
ISOLATED TSTM CAN/T BE RULED OUT NEAR KJST-KAOO WHERE RAP/NAM
CAPES BTWN 500-1000 J/KG.
RESTRICTIONS RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG
REDEVELOP OVER MAINLY WESTERN AREAS.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS MAINLY WEST. SCT SHOWERS/ISO
TSTMS WITH LOCAL IMPACTS EAST.
MON...CIG REDUCTIONS NW. PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
TUE...CIG REDUCTIONS NW. LOCAL PM TSRA IMPACTS...MAINLY SW HALF.
WED...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
630 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN PARKED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. PENNSYLVANIA WILL REMAIN THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER RIDGE WITH A SURFACE FRONT OSCILLATING
OVER THE STATE. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING WITH IT A CHANCE
OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST
DAYS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
09Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES DYING COLD FRONT ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR. PARENT
SHORTWAVE HAS ALREADY PASSED NORTH OF THE STATE...LEAVING THE FRONT
TO STALL OUT ACROSS CENTRAL PA TODAY...ROUGHLY FROM KDUJ TO KMDT
BASED ON NR TERM MDLS.
OVERRUNNING OF QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AT 09Z. LATEST NEAR TERM MDL DATA
SUGGESTS THIS AREA OF SHRA...AT NOSE OF A WEAKENING LL JET...WILL
SLIDE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PA DURING THE LATE AM AND
EARLY AFTN. CAN/T EVEN RULE OUT A TSRA THIS AM OVR SOMERSET/BEDFORD
COS...WHERE RAP/NAM CAPES RANGE BTWN 500-1000 J/KG.
LATEST RAP OUTPUT SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER AND SCT SHOWERS THRU
EARLY AFTN WILL HOLD DOWN TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE
CWA. HOWEVER...SOME BRIGHTENING EXPECTED BY MID AFTN...AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC LL JET PASS EAST OF THE AREA. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR SCT LATE DAY TSRA ACROSS THE SW COUNTIES...WHERE GEFS
CAPES TOP OUT NR 1500 J/KG. WEAK SHEAR PROFILES AND LIMITED DCAPE
IMPLY A LOW CHC OF SVR WEATHER. ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE
CWA...EARLY LOW CLOUDS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A PARTLY SUNNY SKIES BY
AFTN...AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND COLD FRONT.
ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS INDICATE POTENTIAL HIGH TEMPS FROM THE U70S TO
M80S...GIVEN ENOUGH SUNSHINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVR THE STATE TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO FAIR WX FOR MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...CAN/T RULE
OUT A STRAY SHRA/TSRA IN VICINITY OF STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY LYING
FROM THE NW MTNS INTO THE SC MTNS.
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH SUNDAY...PLACING
THE ENTIRE CWA IN THE WARM/UNSTABLE AIR MASS S OF FRONT. A BAND OF
MODERATELY STRONG MID LVL FLOW...COMBINED WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY IN ENS/OPER MDLS...IMPLIES A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR WX SUN
AFTN/EVE. MDL 8H TEMPS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF MAX TEMPS IN THE U70S TO
M80S SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST...AS THE PROVERBIAL RING
OF FIRE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE SOUTHEAST CONUS UPPER RIDGE
WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A FAIR AMT
OF MDL CONSENSUS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRYING TUES NIGHT/WED
AM...AS SFC HIGH PASSES NORTH OF PA AND QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS
SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF THE STATE. UNSETTLED WX APPEARS LIKELY TO
RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
POPS INDICATED UPON RETURN OF ANOMALOUS PWATS.
AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN THIS
PATTERN...AS WELL AS ABOVE NORMAL MIN TEMPS BASED ON WELL ABOVE
NORMAL PW. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE QUITE SUMMERLIKE...WITH VERY
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS AND DAILY CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL
CONVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL PA
BEFORE STALLING SAT AFT. NORTH OF THE FRONT /KBFD/...WIDESPREAD
IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...LIFTING TO MVFR/VFR BY SAT
AFT. LOWER CIGS WILL WORK INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS BY SUNRISE. AS A
LL JET OVERRUNS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SCT SHRA WILL WORK INTO THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS/SC MTNS TOWARD DAWN. AN ISOLATED TSTM CAN/T BE
RULED OUT NEAR KJST-KAOO WHERE RAP/NAM CAPES BTWN 500-1000 J/KG.
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD LIFT BETWEEN 15 TO 18Z. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
STALL OUT ROUGHLY FROM KDUJ TO KTHV. FOCUS OF CONVECTION WILL BE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY ON SAT...WITH BEST PROB OF TSTM
IMPACTS AT KJST-KAOO.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...CIG RESTRICTIONS NORTH AND WEST IN THE MORNING. SCT CIG/VSBY
IMPACTS FROM SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY SOUTHWEST THIRD OF PENN.
SUN...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS MAINLY WEST. SCT SHOWERS/ISO
TSTMS WITH LOCAL IMPACTS EAST.
MON...CIG REDUCTIONS NW. PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
TUE...CIG REDUCTIONS NW. LOCAL PM TSRA IMPACTS...MAINLY SW HALF.
WED...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
404 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN PARKED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. PENNSYLVANIA WILL REMAIN THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER RIDGE WITH A SURFACE FRONT OSCILLATING
OVER THE STATE. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING WITH IT A CHANCE
OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST
DAYS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
RADAR LOOP AT 06Z SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80 ASSOC
WITH COLD FRONT. PARENT SHORTWAVE IS PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE
STATE AND UPPER LVL FLOW IS FROM THE WEST. THUS...EXPECT FRONT TO
STALL OUT AS IT PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN PA TOWARD DAWN.
UPSTREAM OVR OHIO AND WESTERN PA...OVERRUNNING OF
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS PRODUCING SCT SHRA ACROSS OHIO/WESTERN
PA AT 06Z. LATEST NEAR TERM MDL DATA IMPLIES AN INCREASING CHC OF
SHRA ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS/SC MTNS TOWARD DAWN...AS LL JET
OVERRUNS BOUNDARY. CAN/T EVEN RULE OUT A TSRA TOWARD DAWN OVR
SOMERSET/BEDFORD COS...WHERE RAP/NAM CAPES BTWN 500-1000 J/KG.
TEMPS SHOULD SLIP BACK TO ARND 60F ACROSS THE N TIER BEHIND COLD
FRONT. FURTHER SOUTH...EXPECT READINGS TO BOTTOM OUT NR 70F ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM MDL DATA INDICATES FRONT WILL STALL OUT ROUGHLY FROM
KDUJ TO KTHV. FOCUS OF CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY TODAY. TO THE NORTHEAST...A PUSH OF DRIER AIR IN WAKE OF
COLD FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY CONDS NE OF KBFD
AND KMDT. LATEST RAP OUTPUT SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER AND SCT SHOWERS
THRU EARLY AFTN WILL HOLD DOWN TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF
THE CWA. HOWEVER...LATEST NAM/RAP IMPLY SOME BRIGHTENING BY MID
AFTN. ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS INDICATE POTENTIAL HIGH TEMPS FROM THE
U70S TO M80S...GIVEN ENOUGH SUNSHINE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SCT
LATE DAY TSRA ACROSS THE SW COUNTIES...WHERE GEFS CAPES TOP OUT NR
1500 J/KG. WEAK SHEAR PROFILES AND LIMITED DCAPE IMPLY A LOW CHC
OF SVR WEATHER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST TODAY AS THE PROVERBIAL
RING OF FIRE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE SOUTHEAST CONUS UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS CENTRAL PA FROM MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND THROUGH MID WEEK. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY
PROVIDE SOME DRYING AND BY LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT WITH ONLY A
1020MB SFC HIGH PROGGED TO CROSS THE NORTHERN GLAKES
REGION...PERSISTENCE FORECAST IS LIKELY THE BEST ONE WITH ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS INDICATED THROUGH THE END OF THE COMING WEEK.
AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN THIS
PATTERN...AS WELL AS ABOVE NORMAL MIN TEMPS BASED ON WELL ABOVE
NORMAL PW. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE QUITE SUMMERLIKE...WITH VERY
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS AND DAILY CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL
CONVECTION. BEST CHC FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH STRONG 5H TROFS
FLATTENING AND ULTIMATELY DISPLACING THE SPRAWLING SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES UPPER RIDGE OFFSHORE BY LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL PA
BEFORE STALLING SAT AFT. NORTH OF THE FRONT /KBFD/...WIDESPREAD
IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...LIFTING TO MVFR/VFR BY SAT
AFT. LOWER CIGS WILL WORK INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS BY SUNRISE. AS A
LL JET OVERRUNS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SCT SHRA WILL WORK INTO THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS/SC MTNS TOWARD DAWN. AN ISOLATED TSTM CAN/T BE
RULED OUT NEAR KJST-KAOO WHERE RAP/NAM CAPES BTWN 500-1000 J/KG.
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD LIFT BETWEEN 15 TO 18Z. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
STALL OUT ROUGHLY FROM KDUJ TO KTHV. FOCUS OF CONVECTION WILL BE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY ON SAT...WITH BEST PROB OF TSTM
IMPACTS AT KJST-KAOO.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...CIG RESTRICTIONS NORTH AND WEST IN THE MORNING. SCT CIG/VSBY
IMPACTS FROM SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY SOUTHWEST THIRD OF PENN.
SUN...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS MAINLY WEST. SCT SHOWERS/ISO
TSTMS WITH LOCAL IMPACTS EAST.
MON...CIG REDUCTIONS NW. PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
TUE...CIG REDUCTIONS NW. LOCAL PM TSRA IMPACTS...MAINLY SW HALF.
WED...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...DEVOIR
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
244 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN PARKED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. PENNSYLVANIA WILL REMAIN THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER RIDGE WITH A SURFACE FRONT OSCILLATING
OVER THE STATE. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING WITH IT A CHANCE
OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST
DAYS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
RADAR LOOP AT 06Z SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80 ASSOC
WITH COLD FRONT. PARENT SHORTWAVE IS PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE
STATE AND UPPER LVL FLOW IS FROM THE WEST. THUS...EXPECT FRONT TO
STALL OUT AS IT PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN PA TOWARD DAWN.
UPSTREAM OVR OHIO AND WESTERN PA...OVERRUNNING OF
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS PRODUCING SCT SHRA ACROSS OHIO/WESTERN
PA AT 06Z. LATEST NEAR TERM MDL DATA IMPLIES AN INCREASING CHC OF
SHRA ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS/SC MTNS TOWARD DAWN...AS LL JET
OVERRUNS BOUNDARY. CAN/T EVEN RULE OUT A TSRA TOWARD DAWN OVR
SOMERSET/BEDFORD COS...WHERE RAP/NAM CAPES BTWN 500-1000 J/KG.
TEMPS SHOULD SLIP BACK TO ARND 60F ACROSS THE N TIER BEHIND COLD
FRONT. FURTHER SOUTH...EXPECT READINGS TO BOTTOM OUT NR 70F ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM MDL DATA INDICATES FRONT WILL STALL OUT ROUGHLY FROM
KDUJ TO KTHV. FOCUS OF CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY TODAY. TO THE NORTHEAST...A PUSH OF DRIER AIR IN WAKE OF
COLD FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY CONDS NE OF KBFD
AND KMDT. LATEST RAP OUTPUT SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER AND SCT SHOWERS
THRU EARLY AFTN WILL HOLD DOWN TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF
THE CWA. HOWEVER...LATEST NAM/RAP IMPLY SOME BRIGHTENING BY MID
AFTN. ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS INDICATE POTENTIAL HIGH TEMPS FROM THE
U70S TO M80S...GIVEN ENOUGH SUNSHINE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SCT
LATE DAY TSRA ACROSS THE SW COUNTIES...WHERE GEFS CAPES TOP OUT NR
1500 J/KG. WEAK SHEAR PROFILES AND LIMITED DCAPE IMPLY A LOW CHC
OF SVR WEATHER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST TODAY AS THE PROVERBIAL
RING OF FIRE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE SOUTHEAST CONUS UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS CENTRAL PA FROM MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND THROUGH MID WEEK. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY
PROVIDE SOME DRYING AND BY LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT WITH ONLY A
1020MB SFC HIGH PROGGED TO CROSS THE NORTHERN GLAKES
REGION...PERSISTENCE FORECAST IS LIKELY THE BEST ONE WITH ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS INDICATED THROUGH THE END OF THE COMING WEEK.
AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN THIS
PATTERN...AS WELL AS ABOVE NORMAL MIN TEMPS BASED ON WELL ABOVE
NORMAL PW. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE QUITE SUMMERLIKE...WITH VERY
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS AND DAILY CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL
CONVECTION. BEST CHC FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH STRONG 5H TROFS
FLATTENING AND ULTIMATELY DISPLACING THE SPRAWLING SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES UPPER RIDGE OFFSHORE BY LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STALLED COLD FRONT AND THE RESULTANT LIGHT WINDS...ALONG WITH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE DUE TO TODAYS PRECIPITATION SHOULD ALLOW FOR
LOCALIZED IFR TO LIFR IN FOG TO BE LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY MORNING. MDT AND LNS
ARE MORE THAN LIKELY GOING TO SEE MVFR VSBYS...WITH
UNV...IPT...BFD...JST IN PERIODS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS.
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD LIFT BETWEEN 15 TO 18Z AT THE LATEST WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...ISOLD MVFR IMPACTS POSS FROM SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY SOUTHWEST
THIRD OF PENN.
SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
MON...PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W MTNS.
TUE AND WED...PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY SOUTH.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...DEVOIR
AVIATION...CERU
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
444 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG AREA OF DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA INTO LATE NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 440 PM EDT...RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AND OTHER CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS HAVE INDICATED FAIRLY DECENT SCATTERED CONVERAGE OF
SHRA/TSRA IN THE NC PIEDMONT THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...SHRA
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP AND HAVE DISSIPATED FAIRLY QUICKLY IN THE
WARM PROFILES ALOFT. WILL BACK OFF POPS A TOUCH THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...BUT STILL KEEP A SCATTERED COVERAGE MAXIMUM IN THE
VICINITY OF KCLT THROUGH 01Z.
OTHERWISE...THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH NOW CENTERED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS
SUPPORTING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. MODEL TIME
HEIGHTS INDICATE THAT MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE
KEPT SOMEWHAT IN CHECK AND CLOSE TO CLIMO BY PERSISTENT LIGHT
DWONSLOPE FLOW. NEVERTHELESS...TONIGHT WILL BE RATHER WARM AND MUGGY
WITH LOWS A COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE CLIMO...WHICH MEANS TEMPS ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 70.
SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE A HOT DAY WITH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
THAN ON SATURDAY. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED HIGHER FOR TEMPS ON SUNDAY
WITH MUCH OF THE AREA OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS FORECAST TO REACH THE
MIDDLE 90S...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. HEAT INDICES
ARE FORECAST TO REACH AROUND 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE LOWER PIEDMOPNT
OF THE UPSTATE. CONVECTIVE CHANCES ON SUNDAY WILL BE LOWER AS THE
ATMOSPHERE WARMS ALOFT. LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
EFFECTS AND AREAS WITH WEAK UPSLOPE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM SATURDAY...AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE
SERN CONUS THRU THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE ASSOCIATED RIDGING DOES
FLATTEN ON TUE AS SHORTWAVES MOVE THRU THE ZONAL FLOW TO OUR NORTH.
THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP ANY STRONG FORCING FEATURES OUT OF OUR AREA.
THAT SAID...THE FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE COULD ALLOW THE MID ATLANTIC
MCS TRACK TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD TOWARD OUR AREA.
AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SRN
APPALACHIANS THRU THE PERIOD WITH LEE TROUGHING FARTHER EAST TOWARD
THE COASTAL PLAIN THAN WEST TOWARD THE PIEDMONT WHERE IT NORMALLY
RESIDES. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEST TO SW THRU THE PERIOD WITH ANY
GULF INFLOW WEST OF THE AREA. EVEN THO THE MCS TRACK WILL BE NORTH
OF OUR AREA...THE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE TRACK COULD ALLOW
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO SLIDE INTO THE NW PIEDMONT. STILL...THIS
PATTERN WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED DIURNAL CONVECTION WITH SCATTERED
COVERAGE ACROSS THE MTNS WHERE INSTABILITY AND WLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO
BETTER FORCING...AND ISOLATED COVERAGE ELSEWHERE WHERE INSTABILITY
IS LESS AND FLOW WILL BE MORE DOWNSLOPE.
THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER
90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL STOP SHORT OF 105 AS SFC DEW POINTS DO NOT
GET ESPECIALLY HIGH WITH THE GENERAL WLY FLOW. THAT SAID...EVEN A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN DEW POINTS WOULD BRING MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH OF
I-85 INTO THE 105 RANGE. NOT MUCH RELIEF WILL BE SEEN AT NITE WITH
LOWS ONLY FALLING FROM AROUND 70 INTO THE LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 155 PM EDT SATURDAY...GOOD CONFIDENCE IS HAD IN THE EXT RANGE
WITH THE OP MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW SUPPORT FOR STACKED RIDGING
ACROSS THE SE CONUS. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES HOWEVER...CHIEFLY
THE 12Z GFS BRINGING IN A TROPICAL INDUCED S/W THU TOWARD THE WRN NC
MTNS. THE GEFS ENS MEMBERS SHOW LITTLE SPREAD WITH THIS FEATURE AND
IT CERTAINLY IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE LATEST NHC TWO. RIGHT NOW
THO...THE RIDGE LOOKS TO BE TOO STRONG FOR MUCH A SENSIBLE WX
IMPACT.
THE GOING FCST GRIDS WERE NOT CHANGED SIGFNTLY...WITH THE BIGGEST
CHANGE ADDING MORE OF A DIURNAL POP TREND GIVEN THE WEAK DYNAMICS
AND LIMITED MOISTURE FLUX. THE ECMWF AND THE GFS BOTH DEVELOP A
BROAD LEE SIDE TROF WED/THU BUT AGAIN...AVAILABLE MOISTURE SHOULD BE
TOO LOW FOR A SIGFNT POP CHANGE. BASICALLY HAVE KEPT POPS CLOSE TO
CLIMO WITH SOME INCREASE ACROSS THE SRN/ERN ZONES AS THE BH RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN SLIGHTLY FRI AND SAT. THIS LATE PERIOD IS A LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAIN WRT THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DEPENDING ON A POSSIBLE
FRONT/TROP PHASING. THUS...THESE POPS COULD BE BUMPED UP OR DOWN
MODESTLY IN SUBSEQUENT FCSTS. MAX AND MIN TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL BY A COUPLE CATS OR SO WITH A GENERAL LOWERING THROUGH SAT.
NO PROBLEMS SHOULD BE HAD WITH HI/S AS TD/S REMAIN SEASONAL IN THIS
SET UP.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...WILL ADJUST KCLT FORECAST TO VCSH WITH THE 21Z UPDATE
DESPITE THE INSISTENT HRRR THAT KEEPS HIGH SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE IN THE AREA THROUGH 01Z. THE HRRR FORECAST HAS NOT REALLY
PANNED OUT SO FAR AS THE WARM TEMPS ALOFT ARE SUPPRESSING
CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...EXCEPT SCT VFR CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. A VSBY
RESTRICTION MAY BE POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY IF THE AIRFIELD GETS
RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...THE MESO MODELS HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING SCT TSRA WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE LEE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM CLT W THROUGH GMU.
HOWEVER...THIS APPEARS OVERDONE AND WILL BE PULLED WITH AN UPDATE.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS. THE EXCEPTION IS KAVL WHERE EARLY
MORNING FOG IS A GOOD BET. LATEST GUIDANCE CAPS THE RESTRICTION AT
MVFR AND HAVE GONE THAT WAY.
OUTLOOK...DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION IN A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTN SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE...ESP OVER
THE MTNS. MORNING RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG AND/OR STRATUS MAY ALSO
OCCUR...PARTICULARLY WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL IN TSRA THE PREVIOUS DAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
20-02Z 02-08Z 08-14Z 14-18Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 91% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...HG/LG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...HG/LG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
145 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG AREA OF DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA INTO LATE NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 140 PM...CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK WITH HOT TEMPS. REGIONAL
RADARS SHOW SCT CONVECTIVE CELLS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP TO THE NE OF
CLT. LATEST CAMS HAVE BECOME BETTER ALIGNED AND DEVELOP SCT
CONVECTION SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG LEE TROUGH INTO THE GREENVILLE AREA.
CURRENT POPS HANDLE THAT WELL. MOUNTAIN POPS MAY BE ON THE HIGH SIDE
IF CAMS ARE CORRECT.
AS OF 1140 AM...TEMPS A LITTLE AHEAD OF PACE IN GRIDS SO ADJUSTED
TRENDS AND BUMPED MAX TEMPS UPWARD A DEGREE OR TWO. LOTS OF CU
DEVELOPING PER VSBL SATELLITE WITH CAPES OUTSIDE OF MOUNTAISN PER
SPC MESOAANL AROUND 1500J. 14Z HRRR STILL TARGETING EASTERN AREAS
FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...SO EARLIER UPDATE FOR SCT POPS IN
THAT AREA STILL LOOKS GOOD.
AS OF 0940 AM...CAM`S HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN FIRING UP SCT
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN UPSTATE OF SC AND THE EASTERN
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF NC. HENCE...WILL BUMP UP THE POPS INTO THE
SCT CATEGORY THERE. IT IS INTERESTING THAT THE CAM`S DO NOT SHOW
MUCH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD SUPPORT THE CONTINUATION OF SCT
TYPE POPS THERE AS WELL. BUMPED MAX TEMPS UP A COUPLE DEGREES INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 90S OVER THE SOUTHERN UPSTATE IN DEFERENCE TO
HIGHER MOS NUMBERS THERE AND TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
NEIGHBORS.
AS OF 640 AM...A MUGGY JUNE MORNING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR SOME MTN VALLEY FOG AND/OR LOW
STRATUS. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY AND ALL AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE
A RAPID WARM-UP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH LATE MORNING TEMPS
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR 80 IN THE MTN VALLEYS...TO NEAR 90
ACROSS THE LOWEST PIEDMONT ELEVATIONS.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS DURING THE NEAR
TERM...WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS SUPPORTING VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES THROUGH A DEEP LAYER DURING THE PERIOD. WHILE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT ABUNDANT AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE...PERSISTENT WESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL SERVE
TO KEEP DEWPOINTS FAIRLY CLOSE TO CLIMO. IN OTHER WORDS...AS THE
ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO HEAT UP UNDER RISING HEIGHTS...THE LOWER
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE LESS BUOYANT THAN IN RECENT
DAYS...WHILE WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
MODEST-AT-BEST LEVELS OF CAPE. THE UPSHOT IS COVERAGE OF DEEP
CONVECTION...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF
SHOWERS...SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY LESS THAN IN RECENT DAYS...WITH 20-40
POPS FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...THE HIGHEST BEING NEAR THE
TENN BORDER IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK WESTERLY UPSLOPE COMPONENT. IN
FACT...WITH TERRAIN AFFECTS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY INITIATION
POINT OF SHOWERS...AND MEAN FLOW EXPECTED TO TAKE CELLS TOWARD THE
E/NE...MOST OF THE NON-MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF THE UPSTATE AND NE
GEORGIA ARE UNLIKELY TO SEE EVEN ISOLATED COVERAGE. REALLY THE MAIN
STORY FOR THE DAY WILL BE THE HEAT...WITH FEWER SHOWERS AND CLOUDS
AND RISING THICKNESSES EXPECTED TO SUPPORT MAXES FROM 90-93 IN MOST
AREAS OUTSIDE THE MTNS...WHICH WOULD MAKE THIS THE HOTTEST DAY OF
THE SEASON SO FAR.
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS EVENING...GIVING
WAY TO A RATHER WARM/MUGGY NIGHT...WITH MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO
AVERAGE A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AT 2 AM EDT SATURDAY...ON SUNDAY MORNING AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
CENTERED NEAR THE SC COAST...EXTENDING WEST TO THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND NORTH TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE RIDGE CENTER
RETROGRADED TO THE LOWER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY BY MONDAY...WHILE
NEARLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW REMAINS OVER THE OH AND POTOMAC VALLEYS. THE
RIDGE BECOMES MORE BROAD ON MONDAY NIGHT...EXTENDING FROM THE
CAROLINAS TO EAST TX...WITH ITS CENTER OVER GA.
AT THE SURFACE...SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY...WITH LEE TROUGHING OVER THE PIEDMONT...AND
GULF INFLOW LIMITED TO THE WESTERN GULF STATES. THIS PATTERN
BASICALLY REMAINS IN PLACE INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE GULF INFLOW...WHICH PUSHES EVEN FARTHER WEST INTO
TX AS RIDGING EXPANDS WESTWARD. AS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
FLATTENS...THE MODELS SHOW MOISTURE ROUNDING THE RIDGE REACHING THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL BE RATHER LIMITED
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A SMALL CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. STEERING FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE QUITE
WEEK...BUT HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL BE TEMPERED
BY LIMITED LIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 7 TO 9 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 2 AM EDT SATURDAY...ON TUESDAY MORNING A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST...WHILE WEAK TROUGHING EXISTS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS PATTERN PERSISTS INTO WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY WEAK UPPER
TROUGHING PROGRESSES ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...WHILE THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO THE EAST COAST. BY FRIDAY THE WEAKENING
TROUGH REACHES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WHILE THE CENTER OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE GULF STREAM. UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS
NEARLY ZONAL THROUGH ALL OF THIS...AND MAINLY TO OUR NORTH.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GULF STATES
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE OH RIVER
VALLEY. THIS FRONT STALLS TO OUR NORTH ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
WHILE THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE RIDGE MIGRATES TO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...ALLOWING GULF MOISTURE TO SPREAD UP THE MS RIVER
VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE BEST MOISTURE WILL RIDE AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS TO OUR WEST AND NORTH...ELEVATED MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT
BETWEEN 800 AND 700 MB. CAPE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED UNDER THE
UPPER RIDGE...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW NO DISTINCT WARM NOSE
ALOFT...AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED. STEERING FLOW AND
SHEAR WILL BE RATHER WEAK EARLY ON...BUT BOTH PARAMETERS IMPROVE
LATER IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AS MUCH AS 7 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE...WITH THE HEAT INDEX APPROACHING 100
DEGREES SOME AFTERNOONS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...MAIN CONCERN IS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. ALL
THE MESO MODELS HAVE BECOME BETTER ALIGNED AND FORECAST AT LEAST
SCT TSRA DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE LEE TROUGH.
HENCE...HAVE CARRIED A TEMPO TSRA FROM 19Z-22Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS. A VSBY RESTRICTION MAY BE POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY IF
AIRFIELD GETS APPRECIABLE RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...MESO MODELS SUGGEST THAT SCT TSRA WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
LEE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM CLT W THROUGH GMU. HENCE...HAVE A VCTS AT
BOTH GSP AND GMU. ALSO INLCUDED A VCTS AT KAVL THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
THAT IS LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH CAMS DEVELOPING MOST TSRA TO THE EAST
OF KAVL. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS. THE EXCEPTION IS KAVL WHERE
EARLY MORNING FOG IS A GOOD BET. LATEST GUIDANCE CAPS THE
RESTRICTION AT MVFR AND HAVE GONE THAT WAY.
OUTLOOK...DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION IN A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTN SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE...ESP OVER
THE MTNS. MORNING RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG AND/OR STRATUS MAY ALSO
OCCUR...PARTICULARLY WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL IN TSRA THE PREVIOUS DAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
17-23Z 23-05Z 05-11Z 11-12Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...LG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1145 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO LATE NEXT
WEEK...RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1140 AM...TEMPS A LITTLE AHEAD OF PACE IN GRIDS SO ADJUSTED
TRENDS AND BUMPED MAX TEMPS UPWARD A DEGREE OR TWO. LOTS OF CU
DEVELOPING PER VSBL SATELLITE WITH CAPES OUTSIDE OF MOUNTAISN PER
SPC MESOAANL AROUND 1500J. 14Z HRRR STILL TARGETING EASTERN AREAS
FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...SO EARLIER UPDATE FOR SCT POPS IN
THAT AREA STILL LOOKS GOOD.
AS OF 0940 AM...CAM`S HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN FIRING UP SCT
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN UPSTATE OF SC AND THE EASTERN
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF NC. HENCE...WILL BUMP UP THE POPS INTO THE
SCT CATEGORY THERE. IT IS INTERESTING THAT THE CAM`S DO NOT SHOW
MUCH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD SUPPORT THE CONTINUATION OF SCT
TYPE POPS THERE AS WELL. BUMPED MAX TEMPS UP A COUPLE DEGREES INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 90S OVER THE SOUTHERN UPSTATE IN DEFERENCE TO
HIGHER MOS NUMBERS THERE AND TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
NEIGHBORS.
AS OF 640 AM...A MUGGY JUNE MORNING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR SOME MTN VALLEY FOG AND/OR LOW
STRATUS. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY AND ALL AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE
A RAPID WARM-UP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH LATE MORNING TEMPS
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR 80 IN THE MTN VALLEYS...TO NEAR 90
ACROSS THE LOWEST PIEDMONT ELEVATIONS.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS DURING THE NEAR
TERM...WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS SUPPORTING VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES THROUGH A DEEP LAYER DURING THE PERIOD. WHILE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT ABUNDANT AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE...PERSISTENT WESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL SERVE
TO KEEP DEWPOINTS FAIRLY CLOSE TO CLIMO. IN OTHER WORDS...AS THE
ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO HEAT UP UNDER RISING HEIGHTS...THE LOWER
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE LESS BUOYANT THAN IN RECENT
DAYS...WHILE WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
MODEST-AT-BEST LEVELS OF CAPE. THE UPSHOT IS COVERAGE OF DEEP
CONVECTION...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF
SHOWERS...SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY LESS THAN IN RECENT DAYS...WITH 20-40
POPS FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...THE HIGHEST BEING NEAR THE
TENN BORDER IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK WESTERLY UPSLOPE COMPONENT. IN
FACT...WITH TERRAIN AFFECTS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY INITIATION
POINT OF SHOWERS...AND MEAN FLOW EXPECTED TO TAKE CELLS TOWARD THE
E/NE...MOST OF THE NON-MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF THE UPSTATE AND NE
GEORGIA ARE UNLIKELY TO SEE EVEN ISOLATED COVERAGE. REALLY THE MAIN
STORY FOR THE DAY WILL BE THE HEAT...WITH FEWER SHOWERS AND CLOUDS
AND RISING THICKNESSES EXPECTED TO SUPPORT MAXES FROM 90-93 IN MOST
AREAS OUTSIDE THE MTNS...WHICH WOULD MAKE THIS THE HOTTEST DAY OF
THE SEASON SO FAR.
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS EVENING...GIVING
WAY TO A RATHER WARM/MUGGY NIGHT...WITH MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO
AVERAGE A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AT 2 AM EDT SATURDAY...ON SUNDAY MORNING AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
CENTERED NEAR THE SC COAST...EXTENDING WEST TO THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND NORTH TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE RIDGE CENTER
RETROGRADED TO THE LOWER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY BY MONDAY...WHILE
NEARLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW REMAINS OVER THE OH AND POTOMAC VALLEYS. THE
RIDGE BECOMES MORE BROAD ON MONDAY NIGHT...EXTENDING FROM THE
CAROLINAS TO EAST TX...WITH ITS CENTER OVER GA.
AT THE SURFACE...SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY...WITH LEE TROUGHING OVER THE PIEDMONT...AND
GULF INFLOW LIMITED TO THE WESTERN GULF STATES. THIS PATTERN
BASICALLY REMAINS IN PLACE INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE GULF INFLOW...WHICH PUSHES EVEN FARTHER WEST INTO
TX AS RIDGING EXPANDS WESTWARD. AS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
FLATTENS...THE MODELS SHOW MOISTURE ROUNDING THE RIDGE REACHING THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL BE RATHER LIMITED
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A SMALL CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. STEERING FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE QUITE
WEEK...BUT HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL BE TEMPERED
BY LIMITED LIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 7 TO 9 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 2 AM EDT SATURDAY...ON TUESDAY MORNING A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST...WHILE WEAK TROUGHING EXISTS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS PATTERN PERSISTS INTO WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY WEAK UPPER
TROUGHING PROGRESSES ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...WHILE THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO THE EAST COAST. BY FRIDAY THE WEAKENING
TROUGH REACHES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WHILE THE CENTER OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE GULF STREAM. UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS
NEARLY ZONAL THROUGH ALL OF THIS...AND MAINLY TO OUR NORTH.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GULF STATES
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE OH RIVER
VALLEY. THIS FRONT STALLS TO OUR NORTH ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
WHILE THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE RIDGE MIGRATES TO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...ALLOWING GULF MOISTURE TO SPREAD UP THE MS RIVER
VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE BEST MOISTURE WILL RIDE AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS TO OUR WEST AND NORTH...ELEVATED MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT
BETWEEN 800 AND 700 MB. CAPE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED UNDER THE
UPPER RIDGE...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW NO DISTINCT WARM NOSE
ALOFT...AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED. STEERING FLOW AND
SHEAR WILL BE RATHER WEAK EARLY ON...BUT BOTH PARAMETERS IMPROVE
LATER IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AS MUCH AS 7 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE...WITH THE HEAT INDEX APPROACHING 100
DEGREES SOME AFTERNOONS.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE (EXCEPT KAVL)...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SCT/BKN CU IN THE 040-060 RANGE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A TS OR TWO ARE
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIMITED AND NO TAF MENTION IS
WARRANTED ATTM. THEREFORE...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WIND...WHICH
HAS SHIFTED TO THE NW ABOVE THE SURFACE LAYER. THEREFORE...AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STARTS TO HEAT UP LATER THIS MORNING...WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE W/NW AT 5-8 KTS AT MOST TERMINALS...
CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE BECMG LGT/VRBL THIS EVENING.
AT KAVL...A LIGHT UP-VALLEY WIND THAT DEVELOPED A COULD OF HOURS
AGO CLEARED OUT THE FOG...BUT LIFR CIGS PERSIST AND SHOULD DO SO
THROUGH ABOUT 14Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTERWARD THROUGH
AT LEAST THIS EVENING. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A TS OR
TWO ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUITE A BIT LESS THAN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...BUT OPTED TO INCLUDE A VCSH BEGINNING AT 18Z. RESTRICTIONS
COULD REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INTRODUCE ANY LOW CIGS OR FOG ATTM.
OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHEAST IN A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTN SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE...ESP
OVER THE MTNS. MORNING RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG AND/OR STRATUS MAY
ALSO OCCUR...PARTICULARLY WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL IN TSRA THE PREVIOUS
DAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
15-21Z 21-03Z 03-09Z 09-12Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 66%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...JDL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
142 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
LEADING TO AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE GREATEST
CHANCES OCCURRING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 135 AM...THE REMNANTS OF EVENING SHOWERS HAVE FINALLY
DISSIPATED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...
ACTIVITY EXTENDING FROM ATLANTA METRO INTO THE CSRA IS CONSISTENTLY
DISSIPATING AS IT PUSHES NORTH. POPS WILL REMAIN SLIGHT CHANCE AT
BEST THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE OVERNIGHT. CONSIDERABLE MID-LEVEL
CLOUD COVER...ELEVATED DEWPOINTS AND PERSISTENT S/SW SURFACE WINDS
WILL YIELD MIN TEMPS AT LEAST 5 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...A LATE EVENING ROUND OF WEAK CONVECTIVE
TRIGGERING HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE SRN
APPALACHIANS FROM HENDERSONVILLE TO LAKE LURE. THE LATEST HRRR RUN
ALLOWS THIS CONVECTION TO SURVIVE ACROSS THE SRN FOOTHILLS BEFORE
DIMINISHING IN THE WANING INSTABILITY OVER THE FAR WRN PIEDMONT
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
OTHERWISE...WILL TAPER POPS DOWN TO ISOLATED AND KEEP OVERNIGHT
ACTIVITY INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN MTNS NEAR THE TN
BORDER IN LINGERING WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. STILL EXPECT MINS TO BE
SOME 2 TO 3 CATEGORIES ABOVE CLIMO OVERNIGHT. LESS LOW STRATUS IS
ANTICIPATED THAN LAST NIGHT GIVEN THE MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT IN THE
FLOW...BUT PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
IN THE MTN VALLEYS.
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MAKE SOME WESTWARD
PROGRESS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL REDUCE THE CHANCES FOR
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...THOUGH ACTIVITY IS STILL EXPECTED
NEAR AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. MAXES SHOULD RUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMO AS THE UPCOMING HOT SPELL GETS STARTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT FRIDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING IN ACRS THE SOUTHEAST STATES LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WORKWEEK. THIS RESULTS IN BELOW AVERAGE
COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. WITH THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE IN THE LOW LEVELS ACROSS GA TO THE TN VALLEY...THE
CAROLINAS WILL BE UNDER A WEAK...YET PERSISTENT NWLY FLOW. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SOME DOWNSLOPE ENHANCING OF TEMPS AND MIXING OUT OF DWPTS
THAT WILL LIMIT CONVECTION EAST OF THE MTNS. SO I WILL FCST THE
HIGHEST POPS IN THE MTNS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH JUST ISOLD
COVERAGE ACRS THE PIEDMONT. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LWR-MID 90S
SUNDAY...AND SOLIDLY IN THE MID-UPR 90S MONDAY. THESE HIGHS WILL BE
APPROACHING RECORD HIGHS...BUT LOOK A BIT SHORT BASED ON THE CURRENT
FCST. DWPTS IN THE 60S BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS RESULTS IN
HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING TRIPLE DIGITS ACRS THE LOWER PIEDMONT
SOUTHEAST OF I-85.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT FRIDAY...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS LOOK TO CONTINUE THRU
THE MEDIUM RANGE...AS MODELS SHOW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DOMINATING THE
SOUTHEAST STATES THRU THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN
SOMEWHAT...WHICH SHUD ALLOW TEMPS TO BE NOT AS HOT BY MIDWEEK.
ALSO...MODELS SHOW A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT SAG SOUTH ACRS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC TUE-WED...PERHAPS HELPING INCREASE
CONVECTION COVERAGE BACK TO MID JUNE NORMALS. HOWEVER...BOTH THE 12Z
GFS AND ECWMF LIFT THE FRONT BACK NORTH BY THURSDAY...AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AMPLIFIES AGAIN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. SO WHILE I HAVE GONE
WITH THE SUPERBLEND POPS...THEY MAY BE OVERDONE GIVEN THE OP MODELS
DEPICTION OF THE UPPER RIDGE FOR WED-FRI. ONE OTHER CONCERN WILL
CONTINUE TO BE HEAT INDEX...AS A SUBTLE INCREASE IN DEWPTS MAY ALLOW
HEAT INDEX VALUES TO GET CLOSE TO THE 105 THRESHOLD FOR HEAT
ADVISORY. THE LATEST WPC HEAT INDEX OUTLOOKS DO NOT HAVE THE 105F
PROBS ABOVE 40% ANY DAY NEXT WEEK IN OUR AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND THE UPSTATE SC TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OCCL SCT/BKN CLOUDS AT AROUND 10 KFT.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A TS OR TWO ARE EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIMITED AND NO TAF MENTION IS WARRANTED ATTM.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT S/SW WINDS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
WESTERLY...AND PERHAPS NW BY NOON OR SO.
ELSEWHERE...BRIEF LIFR CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED AT KAVL
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THESE SHOULD MOVE IN AND OUT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE SETTLING IN AT LIFR BY AROUND 08Z. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR NO LATER THAN 15Z. AT KHKY...CHANCES FOR
RESTRICTIONS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN IN THE MTN VALLEYS...
STILL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VISBY
AT AROUND 12Z. TEMPOS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND MAYBE A TS OR TWO ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE A BIT LESS THAN OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS...AND NO TAF MENTION APPEARS WARRANTED ATTM.
OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST IN A
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTN SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE...ESP OVER THE MTNS. MORNING
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG AND/OR STRATUS MAY ALSO OCCUR...PARTICULARLY
WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL IN TSRA THE PREVIOUS DAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
05-11Z 11-17Z 17-23Z 23-00Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 94% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...HG/JDL
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...JDL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
230 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON STILL
INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...A
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND A SUBTLE BUT
WEAK SHORTWAVE NEAR THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST. REGIONAL WSR-88D
RADAR TRENDS INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER A
GOOD PORTION OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE SOUTH OF I-20 AND ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. AS OF 2 PM CDT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ARE IN
THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE
LOWER 80S DUE TO RAIN COOLED AIR.
LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR INDICATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARM AGAIN
WITH MOST READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS
EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY. NONETHELESS...A
CONTINUATION OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WITH THE BEST CHANCES OCCURRING MAINLY WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
AXIS.
LATEST MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY NEAR
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL DRIFT NORTHWEST TOWARDS TEXAS BY MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY AND MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MIDDLE/LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS TOWARDS LATE NEXT WEEK. SOME MODEL RUN TO RUN
DISCONTINUITY EXISTS BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF WITH THE HANDLING OF
THESE TROPICAL REMNANTS AND HAVE BLENDED TOWARDS LOWER CHANCE POPS
FOR NOW UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. BEST WILL
CONTINUE TO BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS EACH
DAY COINCIDENT WITH DAYTIME HEATING. AFTERNOON HIGHS EACH DAY WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S.
CJC
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
THIS AFTERNOON...WEAKENING OVERNIGHT...BUT AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
CYCLE. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY...GENERALLY 10-15KT
TODAY AND TOMORROW...5-10KT OVERNIGHT. WILL CARRY VCSH/VCTS AT MEM
AND JBR THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE...WITH NO WEATHER AT TUP AND MKL
OVERNIGHT...AND VCSH RETURNING AGAIN TOMORROW.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
1014 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
.DISCUSSION...
NO UPDATE IS NEEDED THIS MORNING AS THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.
NORTHERN AREAS WILL BE FAVORED FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON BASED
ON REGIONAL RAOBS AND LATEST RAP AND HRRR ANALYSES. THE CURRENT
MENTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS LOOKS GOOD NORTH. THE BUILDING
RIDGE FROM THE SE WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION IN SOUTHERN AREAS...WITH
ISOLATED COVERAGE AT BEST. COMPARING THE AREA 12Z RAOBS TO
YESTERDAY...THE SOUTHERN VALELY WILL HAVE HIGHS A LITTLE WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY...IN THE LOWER 90S...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S NORTH.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
413 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS
MORNING WITH THE MIDSOUTH ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
FEATURE. THERE IS AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST WEST TN THAT HAS BEEN EXPANDING OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS ALONG WITH ANOTHER AREA OVER NORTH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS. OTRW SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION. TEMPS ARE MILD...IN THE LOWER 70S WITH A
LIGHT SOUTH WIND.
TODAY...LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND THIS MORNING AND HI
RES MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARD SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF I-55 THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WEAK LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT. CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP SOME AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES WITH HEATING TRIGGERING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. BETTER CHANCES WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIVER...ON
THE EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE
THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER TODAY THANKS TO MORE MORNING
CLOUD COVER...AROUND 90.
THIS EVENING...LEFT SOME HIGHER POPS ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS IN
THE EVENING WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DISSIPATING BY
MID-EVENING. LOWS WILL BE MILD AGAIN WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...SIMILAR TO TODAY...MAYBE A LITTLE LESS
AFTN/EVENING COVERAGE SINCE THE RIDGE IS A LITTLE STRONGER. TEMPS
AROUND 90. LOWS 70 TO 75.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MORE OF THE SAME MONDAY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. IN CONTROL AND THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER DURING
THE AFTN/EVENING HOURS. TEMPS WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER SINCE
THE UPPER RIDGE IS STRONGEST ON MONDAY. THINGS GET A LITTLE MORE
INTERESTING ON TUESDAY. THE 00Z GFS WANTS TO BRING A SYSTEM OUT OF
THE NORTHERN GULF INTO THE ARKLATEX TUESDAY AFTN. SOME THE GFS
ENSEMBLES ALSO HAVE THIS FEATURE MOVING NORTH THOUGH THE ECMWF AND
THE NAM PUSH IT WEST INTO THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST. CURRENT FORECAST
LEANS TOWARD THE ECMWF/NAM SOLUTION WHICH IS BASICALLY PERSISTENCE.
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM SINCE IF IT DOES MOVE
NORTH INTO THE AREA IT COULD RESULT IN A HEAVY RAIN THREAT ACROSS
WESTERN PARTS OF THE MIDSOUTH.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE GFS BRINGS THE REMNANTS OF THE
GULF COAST SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF
BRINGS A WEAK UPPER TROF INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. EITHER WAY
AN INCREASE IN POPS WARRANTED FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. A
COUPLE OTHER DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH DURING THE END OF THE WEEK
WHICH SLIGHTLY ELEVATES RAIN CHANCES. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS WED-
FRI...MOSTLY UPPER 80S ALTHOUGH STILL HUMID. UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO
RESTRENGTHEN ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND WITH TEMPS BACK INTO
THE 90S.
SJM
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS
PRIMARY CONCERN IS OVERNIGHT CIGS. PATCHY IFR CIGS WERE SHOWING UP
OVER NORTHEAST MS LATE THIS EVENING...LIKELY AIDED BY WARM ADVECTION
OVER THE LOW LEVEL RAIN COOLED AIRMASS. 00Z HRRR SUGGEST SOME MVFR
CIGS MAY WORK UP THE TN RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL PATCHY
MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH
TOWARD MORNING.
DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO TSRA POTENTIAL DURING THE EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF A MEM/MKL LINE.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1143 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 904 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015/
UPDATE...
NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. INCREASED CLOUD
COVER ACROSS NORTH MS GIVEN THE LOW CLOUD DECK REPORTED NEAR
TUP. ALSO...INCREASED POPS INTO SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR/WEST TN. THE
REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS
CONTINUING.
TVT
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015/
DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES THIS
AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO PLACE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. REGIONAL WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS THIS
AFTERNOON SHOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE GULF AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MISSOURI ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AS OF 3 PM CDT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH ARE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI MAY CONTINUE TO
PUSH NORTH TONIGHT TOWARDS THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT...PERHAPS
REACHING SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE AND EAST ARKANSAS BEFORE DIMINISHING.
OTHERWISE...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH ACROSS
THE MID SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY.
LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL RETROGRADE WEST SOMEWHAT WITH THE
BETTER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OCCURRING ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND LESSER CHANCES TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE
RIVER. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO SERVE AS ANOTHER TRIGGERING
MECHANISM FOR ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THINK THE
BEST COVERAGE AND CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS THEREAFTER AS
INSTABILITY WANES.
LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH BEING UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY AS THE
RIDGE MOVES EAST AND A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO APPROACH
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS MAY SERVE TO INCREASE
CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH NEXT WEEK AND SUBSEQUENT
HIGHER END CHANCE POPS SEEM REASONABLE AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES
OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL BE SIMILAR WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MIDDLE 70S.
CJC
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS
PRIMARY CONCERN IS OVERNIGHT CIGS. PATCHY IFR CIGS WERE SHOWING UP
OVER NORTHEAST MS LATE THIS EVENING...LIKELY AIDED BY WARM ADVECTION
OVER THE LOW LEVEL RAIN COOLED AIRMASS. 00Z HRRR SUGGEST SOME MVFR
CIGS MAY WORK UP THE TN RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL PATCHY
MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH
TOWARD MORNING.
DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO TSRA POTENTIAL DURING THE EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF A MEM/MKL LINE.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
934 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.UPDATE...
A LINE OF STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE BIG BEND
IS PUSHING TO THE EAST THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO COME ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO
GRANDE PLAINS AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE HRRR/RAP13/TEXAS
TECH/NCAR ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS AGREE ON DISSIPATING THE LINE OF
STORMS AS IT PUSHES TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. CANT
RULE OUT SMALL HAIL WITH STRONGER STORMS. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS COULD RANGE FROM ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH WITH VERY
ISOLATED SPOTS UP TO ONE INCH. ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS MAY
BE IN THE FEW HUNDREDTHS TO ONE QUARTER INCH RANGE. BASED ON THIS
FORECAST PERIOD AND THE LIMITED RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED FOR THE
EASTERN PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT...WE HAVE OPTED TO
CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EARLY ISSUED.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN MID MORNING ON MONDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING AND TUESDAY AS A TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE PUSHES TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A GOOD POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OR STORM WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. STAY TUNED FOR
UPDATES ON THIS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE
TEXAS COAST. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE
EASTERN PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND EVEN ON
WEDNESDAY. A NEW FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS LIKELY TO BE ISSUED ON
MONDAY FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 703 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015/
AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA SITES THROUGH MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. CIGS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER OVERNIGHT TO MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR WITH FEW HOURS OF LIFR MONDAY
MORNING FROM DAWN TO 14Z MONDAY. LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IS
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO MID MORNING ON MONDAY WITH HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED FOR THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS
A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM LATE TONIGHT FOR
STORMS TO MOVE FROM THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS INTO VAL VERDE. ADDED A
TEMPO GROUP TO COVER THIS FROM 05Z TO 07Z MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 6 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHER
GUSTS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...AS DISCUSSED IN THE
MORNING UPDATE...RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CENTRAL CWA...NEAR
SAN ANTONIO IN AN ENHANCED AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE AND DE-STABILIZATION. RICH INFLUX OF HIGH PWAT IS
RESULTING IN HIGH RAINFALL RATES...ALONG WITH SOME TRAINING OF
STORMS NOW ACROSS BEXAR COUNTY. THE PAST SEVERAL HRRR RUNS HAVE
BEEN HANDLING THE TRENDS GENERALLY WELL...WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA...ALONG AND EAST OF A BURNET TO SAN
ANTONIO LINE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. WILL ALLOW THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING HOURS TO BE SAFE.
FARTHER WEST...A FEW MODELS ARE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS COMING OUT OF WEST TEXAS AND NORTHERN
MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
HAVE MENTIONED AGAIN SOME HIGHER POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
FAR WESTERN CWA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE MENTIONED AGAIN EAST OF I-35. LOCALIZED
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE MONDAY.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
.ALL EYES ON THE GULF OF MEXICO AND POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM...
.HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT AND FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
FORECAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM.
A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFF THE YUCATAN AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. AS OF SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WAS GIVING THE SYSTEM A 70
PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...AND A RECON
FLIGHT WAS ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT OF STEERING THE SYSTEM NORTHWEST THROUGH THE GULF
OF MEXICO...AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S...TOWARDS TEXAS BY TUESDAY. GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY
CLUSTERED AROUND A LANDFALL ALONG THE MID TO UPPER TEXAS COAST.
THERE HAS BEEN SOME WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
AND MEAN WITH THE TRACK. ADDITIONALLY...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
IN THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM...WITH THE ECMWF NOW SLOWER WITH THE
SYSTEM THROUGH THE EASTERN CWA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. ADDITIONAL
CHANGES IN THE TRACK/SPEED ARE LIKELY FROM MODELS OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS UNTIL THE SYSTEM CLOSES OFF.
FOLLOWING A CONSENSUS APPROACH...WPC/NHC COORDINATION...AND
ALLOWING FOR SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR ANY WESTWARD SHIFT...WE ARE
SHOWING LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
BEGINNING AS EARLY AS TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...AND
INTO THE CENTRAL CWA...I-35 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN HILL COUNTRY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY WE ARE
FORECASTING 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6+ INCHES ALONG
AND EAST OF A GEORGETOWN TO KARNES CITY LINE. GIVEN THE HEAVY
RAINFALL THAT HAS FALLEN THE LAST MONTH...AND ESPECIALLY THE LAST
24 HOURS ACROSS THESE AREAS...ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN HIGH IMPACT FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING.
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE CWA FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
IT SHOULD CONTINUED TO BE STRESSED...ADDITIONAL SHIFTS IN THE
TRACK AND ORGANIZATION COULD LIKELY RESULT IN LARGE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST WETTER OR DRIER. PLEASE STAY CLOSELY TUNED TO THE
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE DOES LINGER OVER THE CWA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY ALONG WITH A WEAKNESS ALOFT. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS. POSSIBLE DRYING
TAKES PLACE NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 73 88 73 85 73 / 20 50 40 70 70
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 72 87 73 84 73 / 20 50 40 80 70
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 73 89 74 87 73 / 20 50 40 70 70
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 72 87 72 83 71 / 20 40 30 70 60
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 76 91 75 91 75 / 40 10 20 30 30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 72 87 72 83 72 / 20 50 40 70 70
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 74 90 73 88 73 / 20 30 20 50 50
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 72 88 73 85 73 / 30 50 40 70 70
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 73 87 74 84 74 / 30 60 60 80 80
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 75 89 75 87 75 / 20 40 30 60 60
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 74 90 75 88 74 / 20 40 30 60 60
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
815 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.DISCUSSION...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVHD AND THE 00Z
CRP SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR ISOLD/SCT
CONVECTION THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG INCREASING
PWAT/MOISTURE THROUGH MON AS THE DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF CONTINUES
TO MOVE NORTHWEST. THE CHC POPS FCSTD ACROSS THE E CWA AND
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT THEN INCREASING MON...LOOKS REASONABLE.
LONG PERIOD SWELLS ARE ALSO FCST TO INCREASE THROUGH MON/TUE...AND
THUS THE HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AS WELL. THE
RIP CURRENT PRODUCT IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 10 PM CDT...BUT WILL WAIT
FOR LATEST FROM NHC BEFORE EXTENDING IT THROUGH MON. OTHER THAN
POSSIBLY THE RIP CURRENT PRODUCT...NO OTHER CHANGES TO FCST AT
THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015/
DISCUSSION...SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...SOME OF THIS FORECAST WILL DEPEND ON NHC FORECAST OF
DISTURBANCE. AS OF THIS WRITING...STILL A DISTURBANCE (80 PERCENT
CHANCE OF AT LEAST DEPRESSION). MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS EAST OF
SURFACE CIRCULATION...SO WITH THAT IN MIND IF SYSTEM MOVES AS
MODEL CONSENSUS HINTS...WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME CONVECTION OVERNIGHT
AND IN THE MORNING...THEN WANING IN THE AFTERNOON (THE TAFS FOR
00Z TUESDAY WILL BE QUITE DIFFERENT...MORE SHOWERS AND GUSTS...IF
TRACK IS CLOSER TO GFS 18Z...WITH THE OPPOSITE THE CASE IF ECMWF
CANADIAN AND SOME OF THE HURRICANE MODELS ARE HINTING). WILL
MAINTAIN AS IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...AT
LEAST FOR A TIME BEING...WITH VCSH OVERNIGHT FOR EASTERN
TERMINALS. THEN...TEMPO SHRA/TSRA FOR MONDAY MAINLY AFTER
14Z (AGAIN EASTERN TERMINALS)...AND VFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.
WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK...HAVE DECIDED TO JUST GO WITH VCTS FOR
THE AFTERNOON TERMINALS...EXCEPT HAVE A PROB30 AT KVCT AS MOST
LIKELY AREA TO RECEIVE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...FOR
BREVITY...WILL ONLY GO WITH VICINITY AND NOT WITH TEMPO OR PROB30
AT THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...MOIST AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS HAS RESULTED IN SCATTERED CONVECTION TODAY ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS. COVERAGE HAS DIMINISHED SOME OVER THE LAST HOUR...AND
LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR SUGGESTS A LULL IN CONVECTION MAY OCCUR
LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. AS WITH THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS THOUGH...EXPECT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
GULF WATERS INTO THE COASTAL COUNTIES ON MONDAY MORNING. UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS ON MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST WHILE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ATTEMPTS TO SHIFT WWD.
THIS WILL KEEP WEAKNESS ALOFT OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE FARTHER ON MONDAY AS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO
MOVE TO THE NW/NNW ACROSS THE GULF. MODELS PROG PW VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES BY 18Z MONDAY LEADING TO A THREAT OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND HAVE RETAINED A MENTION OF MDT/HVY RAIN IN
THE FORECAST.
ATTENTION WILL THEN OF COURSE TURN TO THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
MOVING NW/NNW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. PREVIOUS GUIDANCE
MAINTAINED A TIGHT CLUSTER WITH REGARDS TO EVENTUAL TRACK...BUT
NOW GUIDANCE CONTAINS A LARGER SPREAD ON THE TRACK. REGARDLESS...
THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST FOR A TROPICAL SYSTEM TO BE APPROACHING
THE MIDDLE/UPPER TEXAS COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...AND NHC HAS GIVEN THIS SYSTEM A 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLASH WATCH FOR NOW BUT
ONE WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA AS THINGS
BECOME A LITTLE MORE CLEAR REGARDING THIS SYSTEM.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON POTENTIAL ORGANIZATION OF THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MAJORITY OF THE
TROPICAL MODELS SHOW THE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING NORTHWEST AND
REACHING THE TEXAS COAST SOMEWHERE BETWEEN ROCKPORT AND GALVESTON
BY TUESDAY MORNING. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO COASTAL PLAINS TUESDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EVEN THOUGH LOW PRESSURE AREA SHOULD BE
NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY...WEAK TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTH
TEXAS TO FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY. WILL SHOW
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
RAINFALL TOTALS 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD
OCCUR OVER CALHOUN AND VICTORIA COUNTIES. MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH ELEVATED SEAS. THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS COULD BE HIGH
UNTIL THURSDAY. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS COULD BE OVER THE REGION
FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. ADEQUATE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION FOR THURSDAY...SO WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FOR THE AREA.
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO SOUTH TEXAS BY FRIDAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST. WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AT
THIS TIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 76 88 76 89 78 / 40 60 60 60 70
VICTORIA 74 87 74 85 76 / 50 70 60 80 80
LAREDO 76 94 76 96 78 / 20 20 20 30 40
ALICE 75 91 76 90 77 / 30 50 40 60 60
ROCKPORT 78 86 78 87 80 / 50 60 60 80 80
COTULLA 75 92 75 92 76 / 20 20 20 40 40
KINGSVILLE 76 91 76 89 78 / 40 50 50 60 60
NAVY CORPUS 78 86 78 86 80 / 40 60 60 70 70
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN
PATRICIO.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
TE/81...SHORT TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
703 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA SITES THROUGH MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. CIGS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER OVERNIGHT TO MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR WITH FEW HOURS OF LIFR MONDAY
MORNING FROM DAWN TO 14Z MONDAY. LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IS
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO MID MORNING ON MONDAY WITH HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED FOR THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS
A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM LATE TONIGHT FOR
STORMS TO MOVE FROM THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS INTO VAL VERDE. ADDED A
TEMPO GROUP TO COVER THIS FROM 05Z TO 07Z MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 6 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHER
GUSTS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...AS DISCUSSED IN THE
MORNING UPDATE...RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CENTRAL CWA...NEAR
SAN ANTONIO IN AN ENHANCED AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE AND DE-STABILIZATION. RICH INFLUX OF HIGH PWAT IS
RESULTING IN HIGH RAINFALL RATES...ALONG WITH SOME TRAINING OF
STORMS NOW ACROSS BEXAR COUNTY. THE PAST SEVERAL HRRR RUNS HAVE
BEEN HANDLING THE TRENDS GENERALLY WELL...WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA...ALONG AND EAST OF A BURNET TO SAN
ANTONIO LINE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. WILL ALLOW THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING HOURS TO BE SAFE.
FARTHER WEST...A FEW MODELS ARE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS COMING OUT OF WEST TEXAS AND NORTHERN
MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
HAVE MENTIONED AGAIN SOME HIGHER POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
FAR WESTERN CWA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE MENTIONED AGAIN EAST OF I-35. LOCALIZED
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE MONDAY.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
..ALL EYES ON THE GULF OF MEXICO AND POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM...
..HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT AND FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
FORECAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM.
A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFF THE YUCATAN AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. AS OF SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WAS GIVING THE SYSTEM A 70
PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...AND A RECON
FLIGHT WAS ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT OF STEERING THE SYSTEM NORTHWEST THROUGH THE GULF
OF MEXICO...AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S...TOWARDS TEXAS BY TUESDAY. GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY
CLUSTERED AROUND A LANDFALL ALONG THE MID TO UPPER TEXAS COAST.
THERE HAS BEEN SOME WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
AND MEAN WITH THE TRACK. ADDITIONALLY...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
IN THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM...WITH THE ECMWF NOW SLOWER WITH THE
SYSTEM THROUGH THE EASTERN CWA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. ADDITIONAL
CHANGES IN THE TRACK/SPEED ARE LIKELY FROM MODELS OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS UNTIL THE SYSTEM CLOSES OFF.
FOLLOWING A CONSENSUS APPROACH...WPC/NHC COORDINATION...AND
ALLOWING FOR SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR ANY WESTWARD SHIFT...WE ARE
SHOWING LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
BEGINNING AS EARLY AS TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...AND
INTO THE CENTRAL CWA...I-35 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN HILL COUNTRY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY WE ARE
FORECASTING 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6+ INCHES ALONG
AND EAST OF A GEORGETOWN TO KARNES CITY LINE. GIVEN THE HEAVY
RAINFALL THAT HAS FALLEN THE LAST MONTH...AND ESPECIALLY THE LAST
24 HOURS ACROSS THESE AREAS...ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN HIGH IMPACT FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING.
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE CWA FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
IT SHOULD CONTINUED TO BE STRESSED...ADDITIONAL SHIFTS IN THE
TRACK AND ORGANIZATION COULD LIKELY RESULT IN LARGE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST WETTER OR DRIER. PLEASE STAY CLOSELY TUNED TO THE
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE DOES LINGER OVER THE CWA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY ALONG WITH A WEAKNESS ALOFT. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS. POSSIBLE DRYING
TAKES PLACE NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 73 88 73 85 73 / 30 50 40 70 70
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 72 87 73 84 73 / 30 50 40 80 70
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 73 89 74 87 73 / 30 50 40 70 70
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 72 87 72 83 71 / 30 40 30 70 60
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 76 91 75 91 75 / 40 10 20 30 30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 72 87 72 83 72 / 30 50 40 70 70
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 74 90 73 88 73 / 20 30 20 50 50
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 72 88 73 85 73 / 30 50 40 70 70
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 73 87 74 84 74 / 40 60 60 80 80
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 75 89 75 87 75 / 30 40 30 60 60
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 74 90 75 88 74 / 30 40 30 60 60
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
ATASCOSA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...COMAL...
DE WITT...FAYETTE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...
KENDALL...LAVACA...LEE...TRAVIS...WILLIAMSON...WILSON.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
625 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.DISCUSSION...SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...SOME OF THIS FORECAST WILL DEPEND ON NHC FORECAST OF
DISTURBANCE. AS OF THIS WRITING...STILL A DISTURBANCE (80 PERCENT
CHANCE OF AT LEAST DEPRESSION). MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS EAST OF
SURFACE CIRCULATION...SO WITH THAT IN MIND IF SYSTEM MOVES AS
MODEL CONSENSUS HINTS...WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME CONVECTION OVERNIGHT
AND IN THE MORNING...THEN WANING IN THE AFTERNOON (THE TAFS FOR
00Z TUESDAY WILL BE QUITE DIFFERENT...MORE SHOWERS AND GUSTS...IF
TRACK IS CLOSER TO GFS 18Z...WITH THE OPPOSITE THE CASE IF ECMWF
CANADIAN AND SOME OF THE HURRICANE MODELS ARE HINTING). WILL
MAINTAIN AS IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...AT
LEAST FOR A TIME BEING...WITH VCSH OVERNIGHT FOR EASTERN
TERMINALS. THEN...TEMPO SHRA/TSRA FOR MONDAY MAINLY AFTER
14Z (AGAIN EASTERN TERMINALS)...AND VFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.
WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK...HAVE DECIDED TO JUST GO WITH VCTS FOR
THE AFTERNOON TERMINALS...EXCEPT HAVE A PROB30 AT KVCT AS MOST
LIKELY AREA TO RECEIVE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...FOR
BREVITY...WILL ONLY GO WITH VICINITY AND NOT WITH TEMPO OR PROB30
AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...MOIST AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS HAS RESULTED IN SCATTERED CONVECTION TODAY ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS. COVERAGE HAS DIMINISHED SOME OVER THE LAST HOUR...AND
LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR SUGGESTS A LULL IN CONVECTION MAY OCCUR
LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. AS WITH THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS THOUGH...EXPECT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
GULF WATERS INTO THE COASTAL COUNTIES ON MONDAY MORNING. UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS ON MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST WHILE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ATTEMPTS TO SHIFT WWD.
THIS WILL KEEP WEAKNESS ALOFT OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE FARTHER ON MONDAY AS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO
MOVE TO THE NW/NNW ACROSS THE GULF. MODELS PROG PW VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES BY 18Z MONDAY LEADING TO A THREAT OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND HAVE RETAINED A MENTION OF MDT/HVY RAIN IN
THE FORECAST.
ATTENTION WILL THEN OF COURSE TURN TO THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
MOVING NW/NNW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. PREVIOUS GUIDANCE
MAINTAINED A TIGHT CLUSTER WITH REGARDS TO EVENTUAL TRACK...BUT
NOW GUIDANCE CONTAINS A LARGER SPREAD ON THE TRACK. REGARDLESS...
THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST FOR A TROPICAL SYSTEM TO BE APPROACHING
THE MIDDLE/UPPER TEXAS COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...AND NHC HAS GIVEN THIS SYSTEM A 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLASH WATCH FOR NOW BUT
ONE WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA AS THINGS
BECOME A LITTLE MORE CLEAR REGARDING THIS SYSTEM.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON POTENTIAL ORGANIZATION OF THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MAJORITY OF THE
TROPICAL MODELS SHOW THE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING NORTHWEST AND
REACHING THE TEXAS COAST SOMEWHERE BETWEEN ROCKPORT AND GALVESTON
BY TUESDAY MORNING. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO COASTAL PLAINS TUESDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EVEN THOUGH LOW PRESSURE AREA SHOULD BE
NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY...WEAK TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTH
TEXAS TO FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY. WILL SHOW
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
RAINFALL TOTALS 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD
OCCUR OVER CALHOUN AND VICTORIA COUNTIES. MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH ELEVATED SEAS. THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS COULD BE HIGH
UNTIL THURSDAY. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS COULD BE OVER THE REGION
FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. ADEQUATE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION FOR THURSDAY...SO WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FOR THE AREA.
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO SOUTH TEXAS BY FRIDAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST. WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AT
THIS TIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 76 88 76 89 78 / 40 60 60 60 70
VICTORIA 74 87 74 85 76 / 50 70 60 80 80
LAREDO 76 94 76 96 78 / 20 20 20 30 40
ALICE 75 91 76 90 77 / 30 50 40 60 60
ROCKPORT 78 86 78 87 80 / 50 60 60 80 80
COTULLA 75 92 75 92 76 / 20 20 20 40 40
KINGSVILLE 76 91 76 89 78 / 40 50 50 60 60
NAVY CORPUS 78 86 78 86 80 / 40 60 60 70 70
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN
PATRICIO.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
GW/86...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
452 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS ANOMALOUSLY MOIST SURFACE DEW POINTS
ADVECTING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND
ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 60 DEW POINTS WERE
PRESENT AND AN INFERRED THETA-E RIDGE EXTENDED THROUGH LUBBOCK WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO AROUND CLOVIS AND IS QUITE APPARENT IN THE WEST
TEXAS MESONET OBSERVATIONS. LEE SURFACE TROUGHING WAS NOT OVERLY
SHARP/INTENSE ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND THE FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE. A DISTINCT MCV WAS SEEN CLEARLY IN VISIBLE IMAGERY LOOP
NEAR DALHART AND THIS FEATURE IS ENHANCING SURFACE CONVERGENCE ACROSS
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA...STILL SLIGHTLY REMOVED FROM THE
RICHEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
ASIDE FROM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...THE MOST EXTENSIVE CU DEVELOPMENT SO FAR ON THE PLAINS TO
THE EAST HAS BEEN NEAR THE WESTERN EXTENT OF AFOREMENTIONED LOW
LEVEL THETA-E AXIS IN EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO JUST WEST OF CLOVIS.
FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE CU WAS
GROWING/DEEPENING IN A ZONE OF MORE NOTABLE SURFACE CONVERGENCE FROM
NEAR HEREFORD TO NEAR AMARILLO WITH A SECONDARY AREA JUST UPSTREAM
FROM THE MCV ACROSS THE CENTRAL OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THESE TWO AREAS
WILL PROBABLY BE THE FIRST LOCATIONS TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
SPC RAP MESOANALYSIS AND LAPS SHOWS MODERATE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH HIGHEST
VALUES WHERE DIABATIC HEATING HAS OCCURRED FOR THE LONGEST DURATION
IN THE ABSENCE OF CLOUDS (SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA). MEAN FLOW ALOFT REMAINS QUITE WEAK BUT THE
COMBINATION OF ABOUT 20-25 KNOTS 500 MB FLOW ATOP SOUTHEASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR PERSISTENT MULTI-CELLS AND
A FEW SUPERCELLS THIS EVENING. ALL MODES OF SEVERE ARE POSSIBLE WITH
HAIL PROBABLY BEING THE MOST DOMINATE EARLY ON FOLLOWED BY MORE OF A
WIND THREAT LATER AS COLD POOL GENERATION OCCURS AND STORMS
ORGANIZE/ACCELERATE EASTWARD.
AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MENTIONS...A LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT
MAY MATERIALIZE. STORM MOTIONS MAY INITIALLY BE QUITE SLOW AND WITH
BLENDED TPW VALUES AROUND +2SD ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID JUNE AND
SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING SEEMS PROBABLE...ESPECIALLY OVER SECTIONS OF
THE AREA THAT HAVE SATURATED GROUNDS FROM RECENT RAINS. AMARILLO HAS
RECEIVED AROUND 2 INCHES IN THE PAST 48 HOURS. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN
IS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE PANHANDLE EAST OF CLARENDON NEAR
WELLINGTON WHICH HAS SEEN LOCALLY 3+ INCHES SINCE EARLY YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS AN INCREASE IN
PWAT LATER THIS EVENING. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING ON BEHAVIOR OF INITIAL CONVECTION PRECEDING THE COMPLEX OF
STORMS THAT SHOULD EVOLVE OVER NEW MEXICO FROM ONGOING HIGH TERRAIN
CONVECTION AND MOVE THROUGH. IF COLD POOL GENERATION IS SUFFICIENT
THESE STORMS SHOULD PASS THROUGH MORE QUICKLY HOPEFULLY MINIMIZING A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL FLOOD THREAT.
BRB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)...
EXPECT STORMS ORGANIZING IN MOUNTAINS OF NM WILL TRAVEL EAST ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THE LATE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS WITH ACTIVITY
LINGERING BEYOND MIDNIGHT ESP ACROSS ERN PANHANDLES. MODERATELY STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG WILL COMBINE
WITH BULK SHEAR EXCEEDING 30 AND 0-3 KM HELICITY VALUES PERHAPS
INCREASING TO NEAR 250 (HIGHER IN NAM12 PROGS AS MODEST LLJ KICKS IN)
WILL PROVIDE A RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS AS WELL AS HEAVY RAINFALL
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SW ZONES. HAVE THESE THREATS
INDICATED IN GRIDS AND ALSO BUMPED POPS UP TO 80 ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CEN AND ERN HALF GIVEN ADDITIONAL AID OF LARGE SCALE LIFT AND UPR
DIFFLUENCE EAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. WAS RIDING THE FENCE
WRT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SRN ZONES...BUT HELD OFF FOR NOW GIVEN
INDICATIONS THE STORMS MAY BE MOVING AT A GOOD CLIP. THAT SAID...A
QUICK 1/2 TO 1" OF RAIN AND ISOLD AMOUNTS TO AROUND 3 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE AND WILL CERTAINLY PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING. AS RAINFALL
ADDS UP...WE CERTAINLY WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER WATCHES FOR EVENTS THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
A MID-UPR LEVEL TROUGH WHICH SHOWS UP MUCH SHARPER AT H25 AND H5
WILL DEEPEN AND SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS WITH MED RANGE MODELS
GENERALLY KEEPING THE FEATURE JUST EAST ACROSS ERN NM THROUGH MID
WEEK ALTHOUGH IT DOES WEAKEN QUITE A BUT BY WED. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO PROMOTE HIGH RAIN CHANCES WITH SCT TO NUMEROUS POPS THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE FINALLY DECREASING TUES AND ESPECIALLY WED. POSITION OF THIS
FEATURE IS MOST FAVORABLE THROUGH MONDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH DEEP
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CONCERNS FOR FLOODING ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE ALTHOUGH LACK OF A LARGE SCALE BOUNDARY MAKES IT DIFFICULT
TO SAY WHERE GREATEST FOCUS WILL BE ON ANY GIVEN DAY. EXPECT SOME
DRYING AROUND MID WEEK HOWEVER THE IS SOME INDICATION A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE CEN PLAINS COULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR AN MCS WHICH COULD MOVE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WED NIGHT. THIS IS CURRENTLY NOT SHOWN
IN CURRENT GRIDS AND FORECAST PRODUCTS GIVEN HIGH UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR
OUT. HIGH TEMPS REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD DUE TO
CLOUDS AND RAINFALL BUT SHOULD BE CLOSER TO NORMAL BY MID WEEK.
MODELS DEVIATE QUITE A BIT BY NEXT WEEKEND AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN
LOW LAST FEW PERIODS.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
88/03/17/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
422 AM MDT SAT JUN 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND SUNDAY...KEEPING THE
BORDERLAND MOSTLY DRY. JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
WILL EXIST OVER THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE EAST...
GIVING MUCH OF THE AREA A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
SUPPRESS MOST ANY CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND GIVE US PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
THIS ALSO WILL MEAN THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON...WITH LOWLAND
HIGHS RANGING FROM 100 TO 105 WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ELONGATED TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS BACK TO FAR SOUTHERN
NEVADA...HARDLY MOVING THE PAST 24 HOURS. BIT DEEPER MOISTURE
REMAINS JUST TO OUR NORTH WHILE MORE UNSTABLE AIR REMAINS JUST NORTH
AND EAST OF THE CWA. CURRENT PW`S OVER OUR AREA RANGE FROM .50 TO .75
INCHES. MOST OF CWA SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY AND SUNDAY...BUT
WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE MOUNTAIN ZONES AND FAR EAST AS BOTH AREAS
CLOSE TO THE MOIST UNSTABLE REGION. IN THE SHORT TERM HRRR CONTINUES
TO SHOW GOOD SURFACE CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING AROUND NOON OVER THE EASTERN
SACS AS BRIEF EAST PUSH DEVELOPS. MODELS SHOWS FAIRLY HEAVY QPF JUST
EAST OF THE SACS/CWA SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH THAT AREA CLOSELY THIS
AFTERNOON.
UPPER LOW AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BEGIN
MOVING EAST TODAY...ARRIVING OVER ARIZONA THIS EVENING AND MOVES TOWARD
NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AS REMAINING PART OF THE UPPER TROUGH ALSO DROPS DOWN
FROM THE NORTH. SUNDAY STILL REMAINING MOSTLY DRY BUT WILL KEEP LOW POPS
IN FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AIRMASS BEGINS TO MOISTEN UP AND BECOME UNSTABLE AS
SOME SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS. THESE SHOULD BE THE TWO BEST DAYS
FOR RAIN CHANCES AREA WIDE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE. BY WEDNESDAY
THE EASTERN PACIFIC HIGH BEGINS BUILDING A RIDGE EASTWARD OVER ARIZONA
AND NEW MEXICO AND BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE RIDGE IS WELL IN PLACE
WITH WARMER AIR ALOFT. THIS SHOULD END RAIN CHANCES BY THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...
WARM SUBIDENCE ALOFT AND H85 TEMPS OF AROUND 35C...WE WILL SEE OUR
WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON...WITH LOWLAND HIGHS RANGING FROM
100-105 DEGREES.
&&
AVIATION...VALID FROM 13/12Z-14/12Z.
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THRU THE PERIOD
WITH P6SM SKC-SCT100 EXPECTED. SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 12 KTS OR LESS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FOR THE MOST PART WEST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL
RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF OUR DRY AND HOT WEATHER CONDITIONS
FOR A FEW MORE DAYS. A COUPLE OF WEAK IMPULSES IN THE UPPER FLOW
WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR A FEW CLOUD BUILDUPS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE GILA AND SACRAMENTOS WHICH IN TURN COULD PRODUCE
A BRIEF AFTERNOON SHOWER IN SPOTS OVER THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE
THE CHANCE FOR WETTING PRECIP WILL BE LOW UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHEN A BACK DOOR FRONT PUSHES IN LATE MONDAY RESULTING IN
INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES AND ASSOCIATED CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
IN THE MEANTIME MIN RH VALUES WILL DROP DAILY INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND LOW TO MID TEENS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THE WARM CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN RATHER LOFTY MIXING HEIGHTS OF
CLOSE TO 12 THOUSAND FEET OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND 14 THOUSAND FEET
PLUS OVER LOWLANDS. WHEN COMBINED WITH TRANSPORT WIND SPEEDS OF 15
TO 20 MPH THE RESULTING VENT CATEGORY WILL BE VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT
BOTH TODAY AND SUNDAY. LOOK FOR 20 FOOT WINDS TO REMAIN PRIMARILY
WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON WHILE BECOMING A BIT BREEZY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO
THE NW BY LATE SUNDAY AT SPEEDS SLIGHTLY LESS THAN WHAT ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 98 72 99 73 / 0 0 10 10
SIERRA BLANCA 96 65 98 64 / 10 10 20 20
LAS CRUCES 96 62 98 63 / 0 0 10 10
ALAMOGORDO 96 62 99 64 / 0 0 10 20
CLOUDCROFT 74 45 76 45 / 20 10 30 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 94 62 97 64 / 0 0 10 10
SILVER CITY 87 55 88 57 / 10 10 10 10
DEMING 97 59 99 61 / 0 0 10 10
LORDSBURG 96 61 98 62 / 0 0 10 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 97 66 99 68 / 0 0 10 10
DELL CITY 95 63 97 61 / 10 10 20 20
FORT HANCOCK 98 69 99 67 / 0 0 10 20
LOMA LINDA 94 62 96 63 / 10 10 10 20
FABENS 98 67 96 66 / 0 0 10 10
SANTA TERESA 97 65 99 67 / 0 0 10 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 97 65 99 66 / 10 10 10 10
JORNADA RANGE 96 59 99 61 / 0 0 10 10
HATCH 96 61 100 62 / 0 0 10 10
COLUMBUS 97 64 99 65 / 0 0 0 10
OROGRANDE 97 65 99 67 / 0 0 10 10
MAYHILL 83 49 84 50 / 20 10 30 20
MESCALERO 85 48 84 49 / 10 10 20 20
TIMBERON 84 46 84 47 / 20 10 20 20
WINSTON 87 52 86 54 / 20 10 20 10
HILLSBORO 94 57 94 59 / 10 10 10 10
SPACEPORT 96 58 99 60 / 0 0 10 10
LAKE ROBERTS 88 50 87 52 / 20 10 20 10
HURLEY 90 56 91 57 / 10 10 10 10
CLIFF 94 49 96 51 / 0 0 10 10
MULE CREEK 91 47 93 48 / 10 10 10 10
FAYWOOD 92 57 92 59 / 10 10 10 10
ANIMAS 96 59 100 62 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 95 58 99 60 / 0 0 0 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 97 57 100 60 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 92 55 93 58 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
17 HEFNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
1256 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES AS WELL AS SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATED ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS ACROSS THE
COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE TOPS OF THE CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHWEST
TEXAS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. CEILINGS WERE NEAR 1600FT AT KT65. EXPECT MVFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP SATURDAY MORNING WITH STREAMER SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS AND MOVING INLAND WITH THE
SEABREEZE FRONT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL MUCH OF THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS DAYTIME HEATING ENDS AND THE CUMULUS FIELD
DISSIPATES. INCREASING GULF MOISTURE AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST
WIND TO ALLOW FOR STREAMER SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP AROUND SUNRISE
SATURDAY. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS WILL BE DIRECTED TOWARDS
THE LOWER AND MID RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND MAY DIRECTLY IMPACT THE
THREE TERMINALS. PROBABILITIES ARE LOW BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
ENOUGH TO AT MENTION VICINITY SHOWERS AT KBRO AT THIS TIME. LATER
TAF PACKAGES MAY NEED TO ADD VCSH TO KHRL AND KMFE. THERE MAY BE A
FEW HOURS OF MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH STREAMER SHOWERS. A LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WIND TO PERSIST TONIGHT INCREASING SATURDAY GUSTING
20-25 KNOTS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015/
SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...IN THE IMMEDIATE TERM
THE SEABREEZE ACTIVATED EARLIER THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ALONG IT MOVING NORTHWESTWARD. TAKING A LOOK AT THE
HRRR AND RAP BOTH MODELS KEEP THIS ACTIVITY GOING FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS THEN DISSIPATING AROUND SUNSET AS THE SEABREEZE AND
FORCING WEAKENS. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY LIGHTNING AND HAS BEEN ISOLATED
IN NATURE AND PROGRESSING NORTHWESTWARD SO AMOUNTS OF ONE QUARTER
INCH OR LESS.
THE ATMOSPHERE IS FAIRLY DRY IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WITH
MOST MOISTURE CENTERED AT 850MB AND BELOW. PWATS ON THE 12Z
SOUNDING WERE 1.85 INCHES HERE AT BRO. ONCE THE SUN GOES DOWN THE
FORCING WEAKENS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES GO DOWN TO AROUND 10%
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GULF WATERS WHERE CHANCES WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE BECOMING A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
OVERNIGHT AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S.
SATURDAY WILL BE A REPEAT OF TODAY JUST WITH A LITTLE MORE
MOISTURE I EXPECT TO SEE WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
HAVE RAISED POP CHANCES TO CHANCE ALONG THE SEABREEZE AND TRACKED
THAT POP CHANCE INLAND AFT 18Z CORRESPONDING TO THE MOVEMENT OF
THE SEABREEZE. MAY EVEN EXPERIENCE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN
RIO GRANDE RIVER AREA IN ZAPATA COUNTY BY SUNSET. ANOTHER HOT AND
MUGGY DAY IN STORE WITH HEAT INDICIES OR FEELS LIKE TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW TO MID 100S.
LONG TERM.../SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...STILL CONTINUING TO KEEP
AN EYE ON THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WHICH
MOVES SLOWLY TOWARDS THE WEST. THIS LOW WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY
PENETRATING THE LAST OF THE DEEP DRY AIR WHICH HANGS ON ABOVE THE
700 MB LEVEL THROUGH SUNDAY AS SUBSIDENCE HOLDS. WEAK UPPER TROUGH
SLIDING INTO NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY EVENING DOES LITTLE MORE THAN
MAINTAIN GUSTY SOUTHEAST FLOW WHICH IS GENERALLY NOT CONDUCIVE TO
PRECIP AFTER MIDDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 77...IF MORNING
CONVECTION DEVELOPS. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR POPS REMAIN OVER THE
GULF WATERS AND COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH MONDAY.
MODEL DIFFERENCES SHOW UP SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH THE GFS
HOLDING EXPANDING RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WITH A LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ECMWF IS NOT
DETECTING A STRONG LOW LIKE THE GFS AT THIS TIME. THE MAIN IMPACTS
AT THIS TIME WILL BE THE INCREASE OF A MORE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER POPS OFFSHORE. THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE CONTENT IS DEPICTED IN THE MODELS WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2.14 INCHES WITH MORE DEEPER MOISTURE
EVEN UP TO 700 MB. THIS WILL RESULT IN GREATER POTENTIAL FOR RAIN
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
HAVE FOCUSED HIGHEST CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS LIKELY TO BE
SPREAD INTO TUESDAY AND PERHAPS THURSDAY AS THINGS EVOLVED. BELIEVE
THE ECMWF IS A BIT TOO QUICK TO SHOVE THE DEEPER MOISTURE TOWARD THE
SIERRA MADRE NEXT THURSDAY SO HELD ONTO 50/50 CHANCES FOR THE TIME
BEING. THE SENSIBLE WEATHER RESULT WOULD BE POCKETS OF NUISANCE
URBAN-TYPE FLOODING BUT NO WIDESPREAD RAIN DUMPS...EVEN THOUGH
EVERYONE LIKELY TO END UP WITH 1-2 INCHES AS A BASELINE BETWEEN
MONDAY AND NEXT FRIDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...ONLY A FEW TWEAKS
MAINLY TO NUDGE AFTERNOON VALUES DOWN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN COVERAGE.
MARINE....NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BUOY 42020 REPORTED
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 13 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 17 KNOTS WITH
SEAS OF 3.6 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 6 SECONDS AT 14 CDT/19 UTC. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL INTERACT WITH LOWER PRESSURE
OVER WEST TEXAS RESULTING IN MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ALONG THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST. SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT AND ACROSS ALL LOWER TEXAS COASTAL
WATERS SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE GULF
WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...RAIN CHANCES ARE ON THE INCREASE AS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE GRADUALLY
SHIFTS WEST INTO THE GULF WATERS. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY. BOTH MODELS ARE DEPICTING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH ASSOCIATED WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS IN THE NEXT MODELS RUNS BUT MAINLY WILL
BRING GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH INCREASE SE WINDS. SEAS AS A RESULT WILL BUILD DUE TO
THE LONG SE FETCH OVER THE GULF WATERS. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 6 TO 8
FEET FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. SCA ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
61/52
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1200 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2015
.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
No major changes this cycle. Aside from thunderstorms across the
Big Country, the main flight weather concern remains MVFR
ceilings. Higher clouds may delay stratus return somewhat;
however, 09Z onset looks reasonable, given model indications.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 912 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2015/
DISCUSSION...
Line of isolated showers and thunderstorms extended along a
Sweetwater...Robert Lee...San Angelo...Sonora line at 9 AM,
moving east around 20 mph.
High resolution HRRR model indicates scattered showers and
thunderstorms to move east across the Big Country tonight, with
the main focus of storm development over Haskell, Throckmorton
and Shackelford counties after midnight. This development is
indicated as a larger storm complex with a better cold pool, in
the Lamesa and Lubbock areas, moves east. Expect to keep likely
rain chances in the Big Country tonight, but may lower pops south
of the Big Country down to 20 percent later this evening, with
loss of daytime heating.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2015/
AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
Look for MVFR ceilings to return tonight. Models indicate stratus
will return later tonight, with ceilings in the MVFR range.
Thunderstorms may develop tonight as well; however, confidence
regrading location and timing is too low to add any weather to the
terminals this cycle. Expect VFR conditions to return to all
terminals around noon tomorrow.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2015/
SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)
Visible satellite and regional radars indicating scattered storms
developing along a surface trough along the Texas/New Mexico
state line, and across the Trans Pecos and Big Bend Region. Some
storms have the potential to become severe as they move east
across the South Plains and Permian Basin due to moderate
instability and modest 0-6km shear. However, most of the activity
should remain west of West Central Texas through early this
evening. The only exception is possibly western Crockett County.
Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage across much of
West Central Texas after 7 PM. The high res models, including
HRRR, Tx Tech WRF and ARW are indicating and MCS developing across
the Northwest Texas and western Oklahoma. The complex of storms
will move east-southeast into the Big Country later this evening
and tonight, and going with likely to categorical Pops. Further
south, scattered thunderstorms are a good bet across the Concho
Valley and Heartland and less rain chances along the I-10
corridor. A few strong to severe storms are possible through mid
evening, along and west of a Haskell to Sweetwater to Ozona line.
The main hazards will be large hail and damaging winds. Locally
heavy rainfall will be possible due to PW values of 1.5 to 1.75
inches.
For Saturday, look for a break across much of our area. Looks like
the best setup for thunderstorms and possible severe weather
will be west of our area, as moderate instability values and some
0-6km shear will exist. However, will keep chance Pops going
across the Big Country with slight chance elsewhere. Highs will be
in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
21
LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Friday)
A rather unsettled weather pattern will exist for much of the next
week across West Central TX. A moist environment, with little to
no cap, will support diurnal convection. However, the lack of a
strong forcing mechanism, will result in disorganized afternoon
and evening storms, limiting the overall coverage. For this
reason, PoPs remain in the 20-30% percent range for most periods.
Better rain chances will depend on mesoscale features that are
typically poorly handled more than 24-36 hrs out.
Synoptically speaking, a slow-moving shortwave trough will move
across the southern Plains through early next week. The main wave
will continue off to the east, but is progged to leave a
"weakness" in the mid-level ridge over the Lone Star State. Weak
forcing for ascent associated with this feature will continue the
rain chances through at least Wednesday. Abundant moisture, with
precipitable water values near 1.50", will prevail during this
period. While precipitation coverage should remain limited for the
most part, high melting levels and moist air will yield efficient
warm rain processes.
There remains some disagreement between the ECMWF and GFS
regarding how quickly this weakness will fill, with the ridge
expanding across the area once again. The ECMWF maintains the
unsettled pattern through the work-week while the GFS is a bit
quicker building the ridge. These differences are expected to be
ironed out in the coming days. Temperatures will remain near to
just above climo through early next week with highs in the lower
90s and lows in the lower 70s. A very slight cool-down is
anticipated by midweek, but temperatures will still be in the
neighborhood of climatology.
Johnson
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 73 90 73 90 72 / 60 30 30 30 30
San Angelo 74 93 73 92 71 / 20 20 30 20 30
Junction 74 92 73 91 72 / 20 20 20 20 20
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1133 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
HIGH PW AIR CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO SE TX. SHRA/TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT ALMOST ANY TIME OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY BUT A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES BETWEEN 09-15Z. BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL HOUSTON TERMINALS SOUTHWARD. SHOULD GET A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAIN SATURDAY EVENING WITH SHRA REDEVELOPING
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 916 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015/
UPDATE...
PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH CONTINUES TO PUSH MOISTURE INTO
SOUTHEAST TEXAS TONIGHT... WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A SECOND SURGE
OF MOISTURE ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY NOW REACHING THE UPPER
TEXAS COAST. HI-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN
UPTICK IN STREAMER SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THIS SURGE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING AND
CURRENT FORECAST HANDLES THIS PERIOD WELL. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE
IS MUCH LOWER IN TERMS OF COVERAGE WHEN COMPARED TO OTHER HI-RES
GUIDANCE FOR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING HOWEVER. GIVEN EXTREMELY
MOIST ENVIRONMENT /THE 00Z LAKE CHARLES SOUNDING MEASURING A
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.94 INCHES/ AND THE CONTINUED
RETROGRADE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION... MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT POPS/WEATHER
GRIDS BUT ADDED HEAVY RAIN MENTION ESSENTIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
AN ANGLETON TO CLEVELAND LINE. OTHERWISE... INCREASING CLOUD COVER
TONIGHT AND ELEVATED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW MORNINGS WITH LOWS GENERALLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
FOR THE MARINE FORECAST... WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY EARLY. BUOY 42019 /60 MILES SOUTH OF FREEPORT/ IS ALREADY
REPORTING 8 FOOT SEAS.
HUFFMAN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015/
DISCUSSION...
RADAR SHOWS SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SE TX WITH
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER CYPRESS IN NW HARRIS CO. GOES
SATELLITE DERIVED PRECIP WATER VALUES NOW UP TO AROUND 1.9 INCHES
ACROSS THE AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS UPPER LOW OVER
THE GULF SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL
SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WHICH WILL LIMIT RAIN RATES TONIGHT GOING TOMORROW.
OVERALL TRENDS IN SHORT RANGE FORECAST LOOK ON TRACK WITH
INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
GIVEN THE WEAKNESS IN UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
NOW BACK OVER MEXICO...THERE IS A GOOD CHANNEL FOR DEEP MOISTURE
TO FLOW NORTH INTO TX AND THE PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE PLAINS NOW WILL HELP KEEP RIDGING FROM BUILDING OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. PRECIP WATER VALUES
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 2-2.2 INCHES THIS WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY. THE 2.2 INCHES OF PRECIP WATER IS RIGHT AT 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL OR 99TH PERCENTILE FOR JUNE BASED ON
CRP/LCH SOUNDINGS. GIVEN THIS HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND THEN
LIKELY SLOW MOVING STORMS...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
OVER THE AREA MAINLY OVER E TX THIS WEEKEND. THIS MAY SHIFT TO
ALONG THE COAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE AXIS BEGINS TO
SHIFT WEST. GIVEN RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS THE LAST 10 DAYS OR
SO...MOST AREAS CAN HANDLE A GOOD 5 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN SO NOT
LOOKING AT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW. HOWEVER THESE KINDS OF
RAIN AMOUNTS CAN BE REALIZED WITH THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SO WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR SUN-TUE FOR POSSIBLE WATCH.
OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK LIKE 2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG THE
COAST WITH ISO 6 INCH AMOUNTS MAINLY FOR LIBERTY/CHAMBERS
COUNTIES. SE HARRIS AND GALVESTON COULD BE RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF
HIGHER RAINFALL FOR SUN/MON.
THE OTHER CONCERN THAT THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF ARE NOW RESOLVING IS A
POSSIBLE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE NW GULF TUE/WED. THE
GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM THAN THE ECMWF BUT
BOTH MODELS HAVE A WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPING AND THEN MOVING TO THE
LOWER TX COAST ON TUE. THIS REALLY OPEN UP VERY DEEP MOIST FLOW
FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND INTO SE TX. ENHANCED MID LEVEL FLOW WILL
ONLY INCREASE THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THAT TIME.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL STILL BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH FOR SOME WEAK
SHEAR OVER ANY TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AS ANOTHER TROUGH DIPS INTO TX
AND THIS TROUGH WILL HELP STEER THE DISTURBANCE INLAND ACROSS SE
TX DURING THE WED TIME FRAME. SO FAR THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE
HEAVY RAINFALL AND IF A SYSTEM LIKE THIS DOES MATERIALIZE THEN
FLASH FLOOD WATCHES WILL BE NEEDED.
MAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THAT THE ECMWF STILL
BUILDS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE N GULF AND INTO TX WED THROUGH
NEXT FRI. GFS STILL HOLDS ONTO DEEP MOIST FLOW AND SOME RAIN
CHANCES. OVERALL HOLD ONTO SOME RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK AS
RIDGE MAY BE WEAKER THAN THE ECMWF SUGGESTS BUT COULD BE STRONGER
THAN THE GFS THINKS.
39
MARINE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO SHEAR OUT OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. AS IT DOES...THE SYSTEM/S
MOISTURE AXIS WILL MOVE OVER THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS AND BAYS
AND PROVIDE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS ARE
ALSO INCREASING THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE
SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE
GULF WATERS TONIGHT AND THEN AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT. A COMBINATION OF
SWELLS AND WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL LEAD TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
CAUTION TO ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER AT LEAST THE OFFSHORE WATERS
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
TIDE LEVELS WILL REACH TO ABOUT 0.5 TO 1.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL THIS
WEEKEND AND MAY RISE TO BETWEEN 1 AND 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
TUESDAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE BIGGEST FORESEEN IMPACT WILL BE
DURING THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE ON SATURDAY ALONG THE GULF FACING
BEACHES OF THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA - WAVE RUN-UP MAY COMBINE WITH THE
ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDE TO GENERATE SOME MINOR FLOODING AT THAT TIME.
SLIGHTLY BETTER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER THIS
WILL BE PARTIALLY DEPENDENT UPON THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 75 88 74 88 73 / 10 40 30 60 30
HOUSTON (IAH) 76 86 75 87 74 / 50 70 40 60 50
GALVESTON (GLS) 81 86 79 86 78 / 60 80 60 70 60
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20
TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
921 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.UPDATE...
DENSE FOG WILL BE NEAR THE LAKESHORE FROM MILWAUKEE NORTH TO
SHEBOYGAN. AREAS FROM PORT WASHINGTON NORTH WILL LIKELY HAVE DENSE
FOG FARTHER INLAND. AREAS SOUTH OF MILWAUKEE MAY SEE FOG ALONG THE
NEARSHORE THIS EVENING...BUT WEAK SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE HRRR MAY
PUSH IT BACK OUT OVER THE LAKE LATER TONIGHT.
AREAS OF FOG MAY ALSO FORM INLAND AREAS.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
AREAS OF LIFR FOG WILL OCCUR NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN BUT MAY NOT SPREAD
FAR INLAND. ELSEWHERE SOME MVFR/IFR FOG IS EXPECTED.
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN MONDAY
MORNING. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE AREA
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST
INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING VFR
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR ANY
SHOWERS OR STORMS TO TAPER OFF EARLY MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015/
TONIGHT AND MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
LOW LEVELS MIXED OUT OVER MUCH OF WI AND THERE ARE PLENTY OF BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS TO ALLOW FOR SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES ARE CLIMBING INTO
THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. THE LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DROP TEMPS NEAR THE LAKESHORE.
LOOK FOR QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST WI WITH VORTICITY ADVECTION AND AN UPPER JET MAX LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS PRECIP AS SOME MODELS ARE KEEPING IT SOUTH
OF THE WI/IL BORDER.
MEANWHILE... A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH WI
ON MONDAY. IT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST WI DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IF THERE IS A BREAK IN
PRECIP BETWEEN THE MORNING SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON FRONT... WEAK CAPE
SHOULD DEVELOP AND BULK SHEAR SHOULD BE WEAK TO MODERATE. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOOKING LIKELY AHEAD OF AND ALONG THIS FRONT
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND 1.8 ONCE AGAIN... SO
ANY SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING QUICKLY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND WE
COULD HAVE SOME SHOWERS/STORMS LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THEN
THINGS DRY OUT AND STAY QUIET THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE BEST
DAY OF THE WEEK WITH SUNSHINE AND LOWER DEWPOINTS EXPECTED.
CONTINUING THE BROKEN RECORD FORECAST...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT THE SAME TIME
LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. THE
RETURN FLOW OF WARM/MOIST AIR COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
INTO THE FAR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE NAM GOES NUTS WITH A MASSIVE QPF BLOWUP JUST SOUTH OF
WISCONSIN BETWEEN 06-12Z WED. THIS IS DUE TO WHAT LOOKS LIKE A
COMPLETELY UNREASONABLE HANDLING OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE NAM KICKS THAT THING OUT FAR QUICKER
THAN THE GFS OR THE ECMWF AND GENERATES A POWERFUL LOW LEVEL JET
OF 50-60KTS THROUGH THE LOWER AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY TUE NIGHT.
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PUSHING 2-2.25 INCHES IN THIS
TROPICAL FEED IT/S NOT SURPRISING IT BLOWS UP THE QPF. THAT/S NOT
GOING TO HAPPEN. THE SLOWER AND LESS AMPLIFIED GFS AND EC ARE THE
MORE PRUDENT WAY TO GO.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
THE TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL BE COMING THROUGH OUR
AREA AND WILL QUICKLY TAP INTO THE LINGERING MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH. THIS WILL INCREASE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON
WEDNESDAY. THE TROF COMES THROUGH EARLY ON THURSDAY SO WILL
CONTINUE PRECIP CHANCES INTO THURSDAY. THE OLD TROPICAL SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY STAY WELL SOUTH OF WISCONSIN...OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
OR IL BY THU AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WITH THAT ARE
OFF THE CHART DOWN THERE AND WE/LL LIKELY BE READING ABOUT
FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS THE MID MS AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS NEXT
WEEK.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
WE MAY DRY OUT ON FRIDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING BRIEFLY MOVING THROUGH.
BUT ANOTHER SLOW MOVING LOW WILL ARRIVE FOR NEXT
WEEKEND...POSSIBLY BRINGING ANOTHER WET WEEKEND FOR THE AREA. IT/S
A LONG WAY OFF AND LOTS DEPENDS ON TIMING IN A VERY WEAK FLOW
REGIME.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH DRY WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHERN WI FOR
MOST OF TONIGHT. THEN EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO SPREAD INTO
SOUTHERN WI LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING
MORE IFR OR LOWER CIGS AND VSBY. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA AS A FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE STATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS TO TAPER OFF EARLY
MONDAY EVENING.
MARINE...
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MONDAY AS A VERY HUMID
AIRMASS RESIDES OVER THE RELATIVELY COLD WATERS OF LAKE MI. AREAS OF
DENSE FOG COULD CONTINUE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT SINCE DRIER AIR
DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL TUESDAY.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT MONDAY FOR WIZ052-060-066.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT MONDAY FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...DAVIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
613 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST OVER WEST-CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. OUTSIDE OF A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS...THE WARM FRONT IS LARGELY
INACTIVE OVER MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
GENERATING SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA...BUT IT IS ALSO QUIET ELSEWHERE ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
CLOSER TO HOME...CLOUD COVER IS GRADUALLY BREAKING UP AS HEATING
HELPS MIX INTO DRIER AIR ABOVE THE INVERSION. CLEARING SHOULD ALSO
WORK INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WI FROM THE WEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TRENDS...AND FOG
POTENTIAL.
TONIGHT...SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STALLED FROM APPROX.
LA CROSSE TO SHEBOYGAN. MEANWHILE...A POCKET OF DRY AIR IN THE MID-
LEVELS WILL EXIST NEAR THE WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT
WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN LATE. THIS DRY AIR SHOULD
KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. THE LONE EXCEPTION
WILL BE OVER N-C WISCONSIN WHERE SOME SHOWERS COULD SNEAK INTO THAT
AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HAVE THOUGHT ABOUT ADDING A CHANCE OF A
SHOWER ALONG THE WARM FRONT...BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT IN THE UPPER
SUPPORT THAT THE NAM PRODUCES. OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLEARING THIS EVENING IF NOT MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...WHICH
WILL PROMOTE FOG FORMATION ONCE AGAIN. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE
REASONABLY LOW EVERYWHERE...SO HARD TO POINT TO A FAVORED AREA.
LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH.
MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND PASS OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI DURING THE MORNING...AND EASTERN WI IN
THE AFTERNOON. PRECIP COVERAGE UPSTREAM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS
NOT IMPRESSIVE...SO DID NOT WANT TO TAKE POPS INTO THE LIKELY RANGE.
BUT THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF JET STREAK DOES PROVIDE SOME UPPER
SUPPORT...SO FELT COMPELLED TO LEAVE PRECIP IN THE HIGH CHANCE AREA.
IF HEATING OCCURS OVER THE EAST...ML CAPES COULD REACH UP TO AROUND
500 J/KG. BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ONLY AROUND 20 KTS...SO ANY
STORMS THAT POP UP SHOULD BE OF THE PULSE VARIETY...WITH LITTLE
CHANCES OF ANYTHING SEVERE. HIGHS WILL APPROACH 80 OVER EASTERN
WISCONSIN...BUT REMAIN IN THE MID 70S OVER THE NORTH WHERE RAIN
COULD OCCUR DURING THE MORNING.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
NEAR ZONAL FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK AND TO SOME DEGREE EVEN
INTO NEXT WEEKEND PROVIDES PCPN CHANCES NEARLY EVERY OTHER DAY OR
TWO WITH TIMING THESE FEATURES THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE. INITIAL
SHORT WAVE SLIDING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND NEAR
THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL DRAG A COOL FRONT EAST OF THE STATE LATER
MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL MODEL TIMING CONSENSUS DEPARTS ANY
CONVECTION TO THE EAST MONDAY EVENING...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE
A MENTION OVER PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN DUE TO THE RRQ
REGION OF THE UPPER JET PASSING OVER.
HIGH PRESS DRIFTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY PRIOR TO THE NEXT SUBTLE SHORT WAVE WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE AREA IS
PROGGED TO PASS OVER FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...A BIT SLOWER
PASSAGE PROBABLY DUE TO GRADUALLY BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS.
ECMWF ALSO DROPS A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS NEXT WEEKEND WHILE THE GFS SPLITS UP THE ENERGY A BIT IN
THE WESTERLY FLOW. NEVERTHELESS...PCPN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL NOT BE
TOO FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA. DUE NOTICE SOME OF THE STABILITY PROGS
SHOW MORE INSTABILITY FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH SATURDAY THE FOCUS
AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
MAIN AVIATION FORECAST ISSUE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG/LOW CLDS TO
REFORM AGAIN TNGT. TEMP/DWPT SPREADS FAIRLY LARGE RIGHT NOW AT ALL
TAF SITES BUT MTW. WL HOLD VSBYS UP PRETTY MUCH OF THE
EVENING...THEN HAVE AT LEAST PATCHY FG/ST TO REFORM AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SE FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN COULD BRING FOG FROM THE LAKE
INLAND AT ANY TIME...SO NEEDED TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT IN THE MTW TAF.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
310 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
VORTICITY ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WI LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH EVENING. CONTINUOUS 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND 925-700MB BAROCLINIC ZONES HAVE PRIMED SOUTHERN WI FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN.
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT HAS BEEN CREEPING FARTHER NORTH ALL DAY AND
IS CLOSE TO THE WI/IL BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. IT MAY LIFT INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WI THIS EVENING WITH THE SHORTWAVE... BUT THE
RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS WILL KEEP IT FAIRLY STATIONARY
THROUGH SUNDAY.
SURFACE-BASED AND MIXED LAYER CAPE ARE ON THE RISE IN SOUTHEAST WI
THIS AFTERNOON... INLAND FROM THE LAKESHORE. THE MESOSCALE MODELS
SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER FAR SOUTHEAST WI AROUND 22Z. THIS
AREA WILL BE ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CAPE GRADIENT... SO THAT
WOULD SUGGEST THE STRONGER CONVECTION WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AS
SPC SUGGESTS WITH THEIR SLIGHT RISK AREA. THE BUFKIT RAP PROFILE
JUST UPSTREAM FOR RFD SHOWS TALL SKINNY CAPE AND MODERATE SHEAR. WE
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AROUND 1.7
WHICH IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY HIGH. THEREFORE... FORECASTING AVERAGE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH IN SOUTHEAST WI BUT LOCALLY HIGHER
WITHIN ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
PERIODS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE THE REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING DUE TO A VERY SLOW-MOVING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
PERSISTENT RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET OVER SOUTHERN WI.
THE WEAK LAPSE RATES SUGGEST JUST A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER. THE NAM
SEEMS OVERDONE WITH THE CAPE ON SUNDAY.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A DIMINISHING TREND IN PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS. IT APPEARS THAT THE WEAK
SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT EAST OVER LAKE MICHIGAN EARLIER THAN EXPECTED
AND THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH AND MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION/SHOWERS. IF THIS
TREND CONTINUES... SPC SHOULD BE ABLE TO REMOVE SOUTHEAST WI FROM
THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE.
.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
THIS WEAK FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE WITH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
REMAINING IN A VERY MOIST AIRMASS. PRECIP CHANCES HAVE BEEN
LOWERED SUNDAY EVENING AS ANY FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE LACKING.
WILL INCREASE POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. CAPE VALUES MIGHT
BE PUSHING 800-1000J/KG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AROUND 20-30KTS. NOTHING IMPRESSIVE...BUT WE MIGHT GET A COUPLE
STRONG STORMS OUT OF IT.
.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.
THIS LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD AS WE GET WITHIN THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. BUT...THE FLOW IS
STILL WEAK AND THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDS HANGING AROUND. WILL HANG ONTO SOME PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT IN CASE THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT HANGS
UP A BIT LONGER...DRY TUESDAY AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR STORMS
ARRIVING TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
.WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF BOTH SHOW A SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THIS PERIOD. STABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE NOTHING SPECIAL...BUT WE COULD STILL GET SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE ON
WEDNESDAY...TAPERING OFF WED NIGHT.
.THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
THERE IS LOTS OF MODEL VARIABILITY FROM RUN TO RUN AND THAT/S
CERTAINLY THE CASE FOR THIS PERIOD. BOTH THE EC AND GFS ARE
TRENDING DRY FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. WILL HANG ONTO SOME POPS FOR
NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. BUT...THE FORECAST MAY IMPROVE FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO SPREAD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST WI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST OFF AND ON THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN
SOUTHEAST WI... INCLUDING UES/MKE/ENW... MAINLY FROM 22Z TO 02Z THIS
EVENING.
LOOK FOR AREAS OF FOG NEAR THE LAKESHORE NORTH OF MILWAUKEE THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING AS LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A WARM
FRONT PERSIST.
MVFR VSBY IS LIKELY LATER TONIGHT... POSSIBLY LOWER NEAR THE
LAKESHORE AREAS.
&&
.MARINE...
DENSE FOG IS HANGING AROUND THE NEARSHORE AREAS FROM MILWAUKEE AND
NORTH AS VERY HUMID AIR FLOWS OVER THE COLD WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN
AND LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW KEEPS IT LOCKED NEAR THE SHORELINE.
EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ643>645.
&&
$$
TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...DAVIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
543 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015
WEAK FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE REGION WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS BEHIND IT. TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE SFC TROUGH FROM
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN COLORADO INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THESE STORMS
ARE NOT MAKING MUCH HEADWAY TO THE WEST AND ARE RATHER STATIONARY.
MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW AN UPTICK IN SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE ALONG AND
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AFTER 00Z. THE HRRR DOES SHOW SOME
STRONGER STORMS INITIATING OVER THE NORTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND
MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CONVERSE AND NORTHERN PLATTE COUNTIES FROM
00-03Z. LAPS ANALYSIS DOES SHOW 1500 J/KG OF CAPE UP THERE ALONG
WITH A BIT STRONGER FLOW ALOFT THAT YIELDS DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF
AROUND 30KTS. THE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT WOULD SUPPORT SMALL HAIL
OR EVEN A MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM THROUGH THE EVENING. THE TSTM
THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY NIGHT (A BIT LATER THAN NORMAL)
OVER MAINLY SOUTHEAST WY AS THE MODELS INDICATE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. GENERALLY HAVE 40-50 PERCENT POPS THROUGH 06Z. ALSO
ADDED PATCHY FOG ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE BY LATE TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH
THIS WILL DEPEND ON ANY ONGOING RAIN.
LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY TO THE EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE IN PLACE.
INSTABILITY IS WEAK OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS IN THE POST FRONTAL
AIR MASS. THE GFS SHOWS THE BEST INSTABILITY ALONG THE LARAMIE
RANGE WITH CAPE VALUES OF 1250-1500 J/KG. SPC HAS MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST WY IN A MARGINAL RISK AND THIS LOOKS GOOD. STORMS COULD
WAIT TO INITIATE UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE
SINCE THERE WILL BE A GOOD DEAL OF INHIBITION THROUGH THE DAY. A
SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH CENTRAL WY BY THE EVENING AND MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN WY DURING THE NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE STORMS
GOING...SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG... THROUGH SUNRISE ON TUESDAY
ESPECIALLY OVER CONVERSE/NIOBRARA COUNTIES. THE BEST SEVERE THREAT
IS STILL LOOKING LIKE TUESDAY AFTN OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS SOMEWHERE NEAR THE WY-NE BORDER BY THE AFTN
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS TO EAST OF THE DRYLINE. WITH DEWPOINTS OF
55-60F AND WARM SFC TEMPS...CAPE IS UP TO 2500 J/KG...AND BULK
SHEAR IS 45-50 KTS...A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONG SUPERCELLS AND
LARGE HAIL.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015
AN ACTIVE PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT STAYING INTACT OVER THE CWA. WHILE MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY
IN THE TIMING/PLACEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES...PERSISTENT LEE
TROUGHING AND PERIODIC LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION EACH AFTN/EVE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE EVENT APPEARS TO BE WED EVENING WITH EXCELLENT
CONVERGENCE AND EASTERLY UPSLOPE NEAR THE SFC. THE GFS SUGGESTS DEW
POINTS IN THE 50S ALONG/EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH SBCAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 1500-2500 J/KG. STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP BOOST 0-6
KM SHEAR VALUES TO 40+ KTS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...SO SEVERE
CONVECTION COULD VERY WELL BE A HAZARD. BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW
LONG IT TAKES TO ERODE THE CAP WITH WARM AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE
WEST. GENERALLY A TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONAL WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. FRIDAY COULD BE RATHER WARM
WITH GFS/ECM H7 TEMPS IN THE 16-18 DEG C RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA BENEATH FLAT RIDGING. LATEST MEX GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPPER 80S
INTO THE MID 90S FROM CYS TO SNY... BUT HARD TO SAY HOW MUCH
AFTERNOON CU WILL IMPACT HIGHS. CONTINUED TO TREND WARMER IN THIS
PATTERN. THINK WE WILL STILL HAVE AT LEAST A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AROUND ON THU/FRI...BUT STRONG CAPPING IS
LIKELY WITH SUCH WARM THERMAL PROFILES. KEPT THINGS ISOLATED FOR
THE TIME BEING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 541 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AND GUSTY/ERRATIC
WINDS. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KCYS AFTER 06Z WITH
LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW...MVFR ELSEWHERE THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AFTER A
COOLER DAY ON MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 20-30
PERCENT TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOONS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...MAJ/CLH
FIRE WEATHER...ZF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
126 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AS
WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THE RAIN WILL COME DOWN MODERATE
TO HEAVY AT TIMES. ONCE AGAIN THE ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SO THE THREAT FOR STORMS
WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. A COLD FRONT
IS THEN EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY TRIGGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS BOUNDARY A LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE
USHERED INTO THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 110 AM EDT...AREAS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE
EXPANDING NE INTO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTH INTO
THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH AREAS OF LIGHTER RAIN FURTHER EAST
AND SOUTH. THUS FAR...IT APPEARS THAT THE DEEPER CONVECTION ACROSS
SW PA/EASTERN OH HAS REDUCED SOME OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE REGION. HOWEVER...AS THIS CONVECTION WEAKENS AND TRANSLATES
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH DAYBREAK...THE PROSPECTS FOR AREAS
OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS OUR REGION WILL INCREASE. SOME RUMBLES OF
THUNDER COULD ALSO OCCUR AS SHOWALTER INDICES ARE FORECAST TO DIP
INTO THE 0 TO -1 C RANGE THROUGH 12Z/MON.
THE LATEST 04Z 3KM HRRR SHOWS RAINFALL SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER OUR AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS
PWATS SURGE OVER 1.50 INCHES ACROSS OUR AREA THANKS TO THE
PERSISTENT S-SW FLOW ALOFT AND THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS START TO
SHIFT TOWARDS OUR REGION. WITH THIS EXPECTED RAINFALL...WE ARE
ANTICIPATING A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE
AND LOW LYING AREAS MAY OCCUR. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING CAN NOT BE
RULE OUT ESPECIALLY OVER AN URBANIZED LOCATION. NO FLASH FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME SINCE DO NOT HAVE THE
CONFIDENCE FOR A WIDER FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS THE REGION BUT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE
THROUGH. THE THREAT FOR THE MODERATE TO HEAVY WILL TAPER OFF
DURING THE MORNING...HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. MODERATE SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY SO GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER
STORMS. IT WILL BE RATHER COOL MONDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE LOWER 60S TO MID 70S DUE THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
THE STORMS.
EXPECTING A LULL IN ACTIVITY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION...HOWEVER A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
SWEEP ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. IT WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM
WITH HIGHS IN MID 70S TO LOWER 80S TUESDAY AND PWATS WILL STILL BE
RATHER HIGH OVER 1.5 INCHES. IN ADDITION...MODERATE SHEAR WILL BE
PRESENT SO SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER AS THE LOCAL AREA IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. HAVE THREAT
HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED
INTO THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY INCLEMENT WEATHER WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...SHOULD BE DRY. HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY
GETS QUICKLY DISPLACED BY A WARM FRONT AND SHOWERS FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY TWO COLD FRONTS THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY... MARKING THE START OF A SHORT DRY REPRIEVE. A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES AGAIN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY...BRINGING MORE SHOWERS AND
HUMIDITY.
WEDNESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER
80S...COOLING TO THE AROUND 70 TO UPPER 70S RANGE THURSDAY...AND
SLOWLY MODERATING INTO THE MID 70S TO MID 80S RANGE BY SUNDAY. LOWS
FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE ANYWHERE FROM
THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH FRIDAY NIGHT BEING COOLEST.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT VFR CONDITIONS DESPITE THE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. LOOKING UPSTREAM...THE NEAREST
IFR CONDITIONS WERE ALONG OR WEST OF I81. SO WE WILL RETAIN VFR
CONDITIONS AS THE DOMINANT GROUP WITH A TEMPO FOR IFR CONDITIONS
AS THE HEAVIER SHOWERS TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR A PROLONGED IFR CONDITIONS WOULD BE AT KPSF DUE TO HIGHER
LOCATION AND PRECIP MAY HOLD ON LONGER THAN THOSE TAFS IN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...MOST OF THE PRECIP WOULD BE SCATTERED
AT BEST AS WE WILL CONTINUE WITH VCSH AT THIS TIME. CIGS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN IN MVFR AS LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER HIGH
AND BELOW THE DRIER AIR ALOFT.
WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT SPEEDS 6KTS OR LESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z/TUE.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA..TSRA
EARLY IN THE EVENING.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AS
WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THE RAIN WILL COME DOWN MODERATE
TO HEAVY AT TIMES. ONCE AGAIN THE ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SO THE THREAT FOR STORMS
WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. A COLD FRONT
IS THEN EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY TRIGGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS BOUNDARY A LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE
USHERED INTO THE REGION. MORE WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A WARM FRONT WILL IMPACT
THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY. WITH PWAT VALUES WILL BE RISING
TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES SO MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AT
TIMES. ANTICIPATING A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS MAY OCCUR. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
CAN NOT BE RULE OUT ESPECIALLY OVER AN URBANIZED LOCATION. NO
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME SINCE DO NOT HAVE
THE CONFIDENCE FOR A WIDER FLASH FLOOD THREAT. CONTINUE TO HAVE
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING THREAT HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND ADDED MENTION OF ISOLATED FLASH
FLOOD.
THE THREAT WILL CONTINUE THREAT FOR CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY HOWEVER IT WILL BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DAY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IMPACTS THE REGION.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...FRUGIS/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
102 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AS
WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THE RAIN WILL COME DOWN MODERATE
TO HEAVY AT TIMES. ONCE AGAIN THE ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SO THE THREAT FOR STORMS
WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. A COLD FRONT
IS THEN EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY TRIGGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS BOUNDARY A LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE
USHERED INTO THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 110 AM EDT...AREAS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE
EXPANDING NE INTO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTH INTO
THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH AREAS OF LIGHTER RAIN FURTHER EAST
AND SOUTH. THUS FAR...IT APPEARS THAT THE DEEPER CONVECTION ACROSS
SW PA/EASTERN OH HAS REDUCED SOME OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE REGION. HOWEVER...AS THIS CONVECTION WEAKENS AND TRANSLATES
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH DAYBREAK...THE PROSPECTS FOR AREAS
OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS OUR REGION WILL INCREASE. SOME RUMBLES OF
THUNDER COULD ALSO OCCUR AS SHOWALTER INDICES ARE FORECAST TO DIP
INTO THE 0 TO -1 C RANGE THROUGH 12Z/MON.
THE LATEST 04Z 3KM HRRR SHOWS RAINFALL SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER OUR AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS
PWATS SURGE OVER 1.50 INCHES ACROSS OUR AREA THANKS TO THE
PERSISTENT S-SW FLOW ALOFT AND THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS START TO
SHIFT TOWARDS OUR REGION. WITH THIS EXPECTED RAINFALL...WE ARE
ANTICIPATING A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE
AND LOW LYING AREAS MAY OCCUR. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING CAN NOT BE
RULE OUT ESPECIALLY OVER AN URBANIZED LOCATION. NO FLASH FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME SINCE DO NOT HAVE THE
CONFIDENCE FOR A WIDER FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS THE REGION BUT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE
THROUGH. THE THREAT FOR THE MODERATE TO HEAVY WILL TAPER OFF
DURING THE MORNING...HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. MODERATE SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY SO GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER
STORMS. IT WILL BE RATHER COOL MONDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE LOWER 60S TO MID 70S DUE THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
THE STORMS.
EXPECTING A LULL IN ACTIVITY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION...HOWEVER A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
SWEEP ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. IT WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM
WITH HIGHS IN MID 70S TO LOWER 80S TUESDAY AND PWATS WILL STILL BE
RATHER HIGH OVER 1.5 INCHES. IN ADDITION...MODERATE SHEAR WILL BE
PRESENT SO SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER AS THE LOCAL AREA IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. HAVE THREAT
HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED
INTO THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY INCLEMENT WEATHER WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...SHOULD BE DRY. HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY
GETS QUICKLY DISPLACED BY A WARM FRONT AND SHOWERS FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY TWO COLD FRONTS THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY... MARKING THE START OF A SHORT DRY REPRIEVE. A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES AGAIN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY...BRINGING MORE SHOWERS AND
HUMIDITY.
WEDNESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER
80S...COOLING TO THE AROUND 70 TO UPPER 70S RANGE THURSDAY...AND
SLOWLY MODERATING INTO THE MID 70S TO MID 80S RANGE BY SUNDAY. LOWS
FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE ANYWHERE FROM
THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH FRIDAY NIGHT BEING COOLEST.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR...BUT WILL BE LOWERING TO MVFR
AT TIMES LATER THIS EVENING DUE TO SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE REGION.
SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE HEAVIER AFTER 06Z...SO WILL EXPECT MAINLY
IFR CONDITIONS FOR LATE TONIGHT WITHIN THESE HEAVIER SHOWERS. LTG
LOOKS RATHER LIMITED AT THIS TIME...SO NOT ENOUGH EXPECTED
COVERAGE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME...BUT CAN/T TOTALLY
RULE OUT A RUMBLE SOMEWHERE ONE OF THAT TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS WILL BECOME SE...BUT ONLY AROUND 5 KTS OR SO.
SHOWERS WILL START TO TAPER OFF ON MONDAY MORNING...ALLOWING FOR
MVFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT FROM A
S-SE DIRECTION AT 5-10 KTS. SHOWERS SHOULD END BY THE EARLY AFTN
HOURS...BUT LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY KEEP MVFR CLOUDS
AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA..TSRA
EARLY IN THE EVENING.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AS
WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THE RAIN WILL COME DOWN MODERATE
TO HEAVY AT TIMES. ONCE AGAIN THE ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SO THE THREAT FOR STORMS
WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. A COLD FRONT
IS THEN EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY TRIGGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS BOUNDARY A LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE
USHERED INTO THE REGION. MORE WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A WARM FRONT WILL IMPACT
THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY. WITH PWAT VALUES WILL BE RISING
TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES SO MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AT
TIMES. ANTICIPATING A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS MAY OCCUR. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
CAN NOT BE RULE OUT ESPECIALLY OVER AN URBANIZED LOCATION. NO
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME SINCE DO NOT HAVE
THE CONFIDENCE FOR A WIDER FLASH FLOOD THREAT. CONTINUE TO HAVE
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING THREAT HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND ADDED MENTION OF ISOLATED FLASH
FLOOD.
THE THREAT WILL CONTINUE THREAT FOR CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY HOWEVER IT WILL BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DAY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IMPACTS THE REGION.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
234 AM MDT MON JUN 15 2015
.DISCUSSION...ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH A
WEAK WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON. EXPECT TO
SEE A SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES
ONSHORE LATER TODAY. SURFACE PROGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A LOW
LIFTING OUT OF NEVADA AND ACROSS UTAH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. FORECAST MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG AND MODEST
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUPPORT SPC MRGL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE MAIN THREAT TO BE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WITH
SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. HRRR REFLECTIVITY
FORECAST INITIATES CONVECTION AROUND THE SODA SPRINGS AREA SHORTLY
AFTER NOON AND EXPANDS IT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HIGHLANDS
THEREAFTER. THE NAM WANTS TO START CONVECTION BEFORE SUNRISE THIS
MORNING AND THE GFS IS GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT. KEPT SLIGHT POPS
FOR SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS THIS MORNING AND EXPANDING IT OUT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TOMORROW OVER THE EASTERN
HIGHLANDS...BUT A DRIER FLOW WILL KICK IN FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE WEEK KEEPING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS WITH DRY AND WARM WEATHER CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.
HINSBERGER
$$
.AVIATION...AN UPPER TROF MOVES THRU THE PAC NW TODAY...RESULTING IN
SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS BY LATE AFTN AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVE. SOME
TSTMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. OVERALL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THRU TONIGHT. HEDGES
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE PAC NW
TODAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL
IDAHO MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS. THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS
MAINLY DRY AND WARM...WITH WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
HEDGES
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
350 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY WITH
LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH ALONG WITH A WEST TO EAST FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FOUND OVER NORTHERN OHIO. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS
NIGHT HAS BEEN CONFINED TO THE AN AREA JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT
ROUGHLY THROUGH CENTRAL OHIO WITH CELL MOVEMENT TO THE EAST. THE
CLOUDS ARE CO-LOCATED WITH THE CONVECTION LEAVING EAST KENTUCKY
MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS HAS HELPED A MILD RIDGE TO
VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT TO SET UP...RUNNING ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO
7 DEGREES...VARYING FROM THE MID 70S ON THE RIDGES TO THE UPPER
60S IN THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS. MEANWHILE...DEWPOINTS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND THE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. WOULD EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS THROUGH DAWN...BUT NOT MUCH HAS SHOWN UP YET IN THE OBS...
FOG CHANNEL...OR WEB CAMS.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS
THEY ALL KEEP A MODERATELY STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE NATION. FOR THE MOST PART...THIS WILL KEEP
CONVECTION TO A MINIMUM UNDER ITS AEGIS. HOWEVER...ENERGY WILL
TOP THIS RIDGE EARLY TUESDAY AND PUSH THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY BRINGING OUR BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY FOR
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL
AGREEMENT HAVE FOLLOWED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12
GUIDANCE MOST CLOSELY FOR WX DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE JUST ABOUT A REPEAT OF SUNDAY WITH
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY TODAY...THOUGH A
STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON...
GENERALLY NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED ON TUESDAY AS THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTERS PASSING BY TO THE NORTH...INDUCED BY THE EAST TO WEST
MOVING MID LEVEL ENERGY PACKETS...MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO BREACH THE
RIDGE AND SFC HIGH WITH OUTFLOW GENERATED STORMS...MAINLY ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES. THIS CONVECTION WILL TEMPER THE HEAT A BIT
WHERE IT OCCURS...BUT 90S WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE FOR PLACES THAT
MISS OUT...LIKE THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY...IN ALL PROBABILITY. THE
ORGANIZED NATURE OF THESE STORMS WOULD ALSO REPRESENT A THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS SHOULD A CLUSTER MAKE IT INTO THE CWA ON
TUESDAY. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS CONCERN IN THE FORTHCOMING HWO.
OTHERWISE...THERE SHOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT DROP OFF IN ANY ACTIVITY
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG TOWARD DAWN AN EXPECTED ELEMENT.
PER THE USUAL...T/TD/WINDS WERE STARTED OFF FROM THE SHORTBLEND
GUIDANCE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SUPERBLEND. DID
MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOWS TONIGHT FOR TERRAIN
DISTINCTIONS BUT ALSO RAISED HIGHS TODAY A NOTCH...SIMILAR TO
SUNDAY/S HIGHS. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO THE SURPRISINGLY
SIMILAR MAV AND MET MOS NUMBERS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTING OFF WITH A
LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN PARKED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS FINALLY BREAKING DOWN AND
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. AS THE RIDGE DOES THIS...A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS THE REGION. WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE ARE THEN PROGGED TO FORM AND PROPAGATE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE ONE MAJOR ELEMENT OF UNCERTAINTY
FOR THE LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK AND THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND...WILL BE
WHETHER OR NOT THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM COMBINES ITS ENERGY
AND MOISTURE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. IF THIS WERE TO
HAPPEN...AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE SUGGESTING...A WIDE
SWATH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE COULD SPREAD ACROSS THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SCENARIO WOULD MAKE FOR
A VERY WET END TO THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE THE
FORECAST ISSUE OF MOST INTEREST IN THE EXTENDED...AND WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY TO SEE HOW EVERYTHING PANS OUT BY WEEKS END. IN
THE MEANTIME...HOWEVER...HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT
SOME SORT OF BOUNDARY WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS OR VERY NEAR THE AREA
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
THAT BEING SAID...DECIDED TO GO WITH A GENERAL 30 TO 40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY AND NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BEING THE PEAK TIME FOR CONVECTION.
THE QUESTION MARK FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT A
SLUG OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS PRESENT TO FUEL FURTHER SHOWER AND
STORM ACTIVITY. IF THIS OCCURS...WE COULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND SUNDAY. AS
IT STANDS...THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH
THE FRONT TO SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY THIS WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK AS
WELL. DAILY HIGHS OVERALL SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME LOCATIONS ON WEDNESDAY COULD EVEN TOP 90
DEGREES AS THE RIDGE FIRST BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S ON AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
WHILE FOG IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS NIGHT...IT SHOULD BE CONTAINED IN
THE VALLEYS WITH TAF SITES REMAINING UNAFFECTED. SOME SCT TO BKN
BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS
A THICKER CLOUD DECK MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH...MAINLY ACROSS KSYM
AND POSSIBLY DOWN TO KSJS. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT SYM MONDAY AFTERNOON SO HAVE INCLUDED A VCTS
IN ITS TAF FOR THIS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE THE RULE
INTO MID MORNING MONDAY BEFORE PICKING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 5
TO 10 KTS LATER IN THE DAY AT MOST SPOTS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
215 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
THE SHOWERS OVER NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY HAVE DIED OUT WITH THE
ONLY SUSTAINABLE ONES ARE FOUND WELL NORTH OF THE STATE IN CENTRAL
OHIO ALONG A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12
KEEPS THINGS QUIET THROUGH THE CWA INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
ACCORDINGLY...HAVE DROPPED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. ALSO...TWEAKED T/TD/SKY GRIDS PER THE LATEST SHORTBLEND
GUIDANCE...OBS...AND TRENDS. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO
THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1043 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
SHOWERS HAVE FINALLY DIMINISHED ACROSS THE JKL CWA.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST SEEMS TO BE VERY WELL ON TRACK. INCREASED
CLOUDS SLIGHTLY THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE AREA OF
CLOUDS UPSTREAM THAT WILL LIKELY MAKE IT INTO THE REGION OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...THICKENING AS WE HEAD INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR TEMPS...DEW
POINTS...AND WINDS ONCE AGAIN TO MAKE SURE THE NEAR TERM GRIDS
WELL REFLECT THE ONGOING CONDITIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
INCOMING CLOUD COVER VS. FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 741 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
A FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL GOING STRONG ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
KY...NEAR THE TN AND VIRGINIA BORDER. AS SUCH...ENDED UP
INCREASING POPS BACK UP TO SLIGHT CHANCES IN THIS AREA FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS UNTIL LOSS OF SUNLIGHT ALLOWS THE LINGERING
INSTABILITY TO WEAKEN AND THESE SHOWERS DIMINISH. ALSO LOADED IN
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS
TO MAKE SURE THE NEAR TERM GRIDS WELL REFLECT THE ONGOING
CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF STOUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. ONE OR
TWO OF THESE MAY GROW ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHTNING SO WILL
MAINTAIN A MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. NOTHING REALLY CHANGES FOR TOMORROW SO A REPEAT OF
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
EXPECTED...WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE EARLIER DEVELOPMENT AND A LITTLE
BETTER COVERAGE OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WHICH WILL BE FURTHER
AWAY FROM THE CORE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN REACHING AROUND 90 MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 90S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
A RATHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INITIALLY OVER THE CAROLINAS ON
MONDAY WILL SLOWLY BECOME LESS DOMINANT FOR OUR AREA THROUGH THE
WEEK AS IT BECOMES FLATTER. A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA
EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS WILL LEAD TO SOME INITIAL
FLATTENING OF THIS RIDGE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...A POSSIBLE
TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING THE WESTERN GULF COAST EARLY IN
THE PERIOD. MODELS ALSO VARY EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVES WITHIN RATHER ZONAL FLOW. THIS TROUGH PASSING BY THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW THE FRONTAL ZONE TO
DROP A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND APPROACH THE OHIO RIVER EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...BUT LIKELY STILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. IN FACT...MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE A MORE OR LESS ZONAL PATTERN
WITH RIDGING CENTERED ALONG OR OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST AND
SOUTHWEST OF CALIFORNIA. IN BETWEEN...A TROPICAL FEED OF MOISTURE
AND WEAK TROUGH AND THE REMNANTS OF THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM
COULD EVENTUALLY WORK INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE THE SFC FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD ALSO
REMAIN GENERALLY NORTH OF EASTERN KY...ALTHOUGH WEAK DISTURBANCES IN
THE FLOW WILL LEAD TO SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT AND NORTH AND SOUTH
OSCILLATIONS OVER TIME.
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
REGARDING HOW FAST THE UPPER TROUGH AND OR ANY TROPICAL REMNANTS
MAY APPROACH THE REGION. THE PERIOD SHOULD GENERALLY FEATURE WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH A PERSISTENT THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH CHANCES MAY PEAK DURING EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ALSO...CHANCES APPEAR HIGHER WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSING BY
EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH ANOTHER PEAK IF THE REMNANTS OF THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM OR SECOND SHORTWAVE WORK AROUND THE RIDGE INTO THE
OH VALLEY REGION. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND TRACK OF ANY OF THESE IS
LOW...AND THE 12Z ECMWF THAT STRENGTHENS THE LOW AFTER IT MOVES
INLAND DOES NOT SEEM BELIEVABLE. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
SHOULD AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT A COUPLE OF DEGREES
COOLER THAN THIS WITH THE MOIST AIRMASS KEEPING MIN T NO LOWER THAN
THE MID 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
WHILE FOG IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS NIGHT...IT SHOULD BE CONTAINED IN
THE VALLEYS WITH TAF SITES REMAINING UNAFFECTED. SOME SCT TO BKN
BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS
A THICKER CLOUD DECK MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH...MAINLY ACROSS KSYM
AND POSSIBLY DOWN TO KSJS. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT SYM MONDAY AFTERNOON SO HAVE INCLUDED A VCTS
IN ITS TAF FOR THIS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE THE RULE
INTO MID MORNING MONDAY BEFORE PICKING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 5
TO 10 KTS LATER IN THE DAY AT MOST SPOTS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
520 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE
UPR TROF AXIS SHIFTING E THRU THE NRN PLAINS ON THE WRN FLANK OF
RETREATING UPR RDG OVER QUEBEC/NEW ENGLAND. UPR MI IS CURRENTLY
DOMINATED BY DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVC AND STABLE AIRMASS DEPICTED ON THE
00Z GRB RAOB...WHICH SHOWS A SHARP INVRN BTWN ABOUT H8-75 AND KINX
OF -3C...SO THERE IS NO PCPN. BUT WITH LINGERING LLVL MSTR...LO CLDS
PERSIST E OF A LINE FM MUNISING TO ESCANABA OR SO...WITH SOME PATCHY
FOG OVER THE W WITH JUST SOME HI CLDS SPREADING E WELL IN ADVANCE OF
SFC COLD FNT STRETCHING FM NW ONTARIO INTO MN. THERE ARE A FEW
SHOWERS OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD STRETCHING TOWARD MPX THAT ARE MOVING
INTO FAR WRN LK SUP AND EVEN A LTG STRIKE OR TWO JUST S OF DULUTH...
BUT TRACK OF STRONGER SHRTWV INTO FAR NW ONTARIO...NOCTURNAL
COOLING/LIMITED MUCAPE NO MORE THAN ABOUT 100 J/KG...AND LIMITED
MSTR RETURN AHEAD OF THE FNT PER THE 00Z MPX RAOB...WHERE THE H925
AND H85 WINDS WERE SW AT ONLY 5 KTS...IS LIMITING THE COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS. MUCH DRIER AIR IS PRESENT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...SO THERE ARE NOTHING MORE THAN SOME PATCHY CLDS ALONG A
SECOND COLD FNT MOVING INTO FAR NW MN.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SHOWERS/TS AS LEADING SFC COLD FNT CROSSES UPR MI DURING PERIOD OF
DAYTIME HEATING.
TODAY...LEADING SFC COLD FNT IS FCST TO MOVE INTO THE FAR WRN LAND
CWA EARLY THIS MRNG. DESPITE THE NEGATIVE FACTORS LISTED ABOVE...
THERE WL BE AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS AS MODELS FCST AN AREA OF
STRONGER DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA OVER THE
INCOMING FNT. TO THE E...THERE WL BE SOME PATCHY FOG THAT IS LOCALLY
DENSE ESPCIALLY NEAR THE LK SHORES THIS MRNG...BUT ARRIVAL OF
THICKER MID/HI CLDS AND THEN DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CAUSE THIS FOG
TO DISSIPATE EXCEPT NEAR THE SHORES. AS THE FNT PRESSES TO THE E
THRU THE DAY IN THE PRESENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING AND UNDER THE DEEP
LYR FORCING...MODELS INDICATE THIS BNDRY WL ENCOUNTER INCRSG MUCAPE
IN THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE OVER THE SCENTRAL WHEN IT ARRIVES THERE
NEAR 18Z. SINCE THE HIER RES MODELS INDICATE THERE WL BE SOME
GREATER LLVL CNVGC AS THE FNT ENCOUNTERS SOME LK BREEZE BNDRYS
THERE...WL MAINTAIN THE HIER CHC POPS IN THIS AREA...WHERE MAX TEMPS
WL AT LEAST APRCH 80 IN THE PRESENCE OF H85 TEMPS IN THE 13-14C
RANGE. DURING THE AFTN OVER THE W...EXPECT SKIES TO TURN MOSUNNY AS
THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FROPA.
TNGT...ALTHOUGH THE TRAILING SECOND FNT IS FCST TO CROSS UPR MI THIS
EVNG...EARLIER EXIT OF THE DEEPER MSTR INDICATES THERE WL BE ONLY
PATCHY CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS BNDRY. UNDER MOCLR
SKIES...EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 40S AT MOST PLACES AS H85
TEMPS TUMBLE AS LO AS 4C OVER THE NW CWA BY 12Z TUE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...WITH OFF AND ON LIGHT SHOWERS.
BY 12Z TUESDAY THE SFC HIGH OVER MN WILL BE SHIFTING INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. WILL START OFF THE PERIOD DRY...WITH THE HIGH DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...AND EXITING ACROSS E UPPER MI BY
06Z. PW VALUES BOTTOM OUT AROUND 0.5 OVER THE E HALF OF THE CWA
EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. KEPT THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT
RIGHT AROUND 40F OVER THE E. HOWEVER...WITH HIGH CLOUDS ROLLING IN W
AND CENTRAL...TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S WILL BE COMMON
ELSEWHERE.
SHOWERS WILL APPROACH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE FAR SW...AND
EXPAND CENTRAL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY TO OUR S...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT
SLIGHT CHANCE TS MAINLY NEAR THE WI BORDER. EVEN THAT MAY BE A BIT
OVERDONE. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE MONITOR FOR FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS.
UPPER MI WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE MAIN LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AND A
SECONDARY LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY. THE
NORTHERLY COLD FRONT WILL DRAG ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING LATER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. WAA ON FRIDAY /30KT 850MB WINDS OFF THE 15/00Z ECMWF/ WILL
HELP TEMPS REBOUND IN TO UPPER 60S. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES
WITH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION LIKELY BEING THE BEST
CHOICE AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
MID CLOUDS MOVING AHEAD OF INCOMING SYSTEM FROM THE WEST MAY LIMIT
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH CLOUDS
WILL UTILIZE A TEMPO GROUP FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF MVFR VSBYS IN FOG AT MAINLY KCMX AND KSAW WHERE DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE ONLY A DEGREE AT PRESENT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. EXPECT IT TO HAVE THE
GREATEST INFLUENCE ON KIWD/KSAW AND HAVE WENT WITH
-SHRA AT THOSE SITES. THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS AT
KIWD LATE TONIGHT AND KSAW ON MONDAY. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES FROM
WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE FRONT MON AFTERNOON INTO MON EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 25KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TROUGH
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SLOWLY EXIT E TODAY...ALONG WITH MUCH OF
THE LINGERING FOG. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N PLAINS THIS EVENING WILL
BUILD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY...AND ACROSS ALL OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
A TROUGH WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS A LOW PUSHES
ACROSS N MANITOBA AND A LOW PASSES NEAR S LAKE MICHIGAN. HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS S CENTRAL CANADA AND THE N PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING
WILL BUILD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN OVER
THE REGION...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES LATE FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ242>245-
248>251-263>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ221-248-
250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
430 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE
UPR TROF AXIS SHIFTING E THRU THE NRN PLAINS ON THE WRN FLANK OF
RETREATING UPR RDG OVER QUEBEC/NEW ENGLAND. UPR MI IS CURRENTLY
DOMINATED BY DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVC AND STABLE AIRMASS DEPICTED ON THE
00Z GRB RAOB...WHICH SHOWS A SHARP INVRN BTWN ABOUT H8-75 AND KINX
OF -3C...SO THERE IS NO PCPN. BUT WITH LINGERING LLVL MSTR...LO CLDS
PERSIST E OF A LINE FM MUNISING TO ESCANABA OR SO...WITH SOME PATCHY
FOG OVER THE W WITH JUST SOME HI CLDS SPREADING E WELL IN ADVANCE OF
SFC COLD FNT STRETCHING FM NW ONTARIO INTO MN. THERE ARE A FEW
SHOWERS OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD STRETCHING TOWARD MPX THAT ARE MOVING
INTO FAR WRN LK SUP AND EVEN A LTG STRIKE OR TWO JUST S OF DULUTH...
BUT TRACK OF STRONGER SHRTWV INTO FAR NW ONTARIO...NOCTURNAL
COOLING/LIMITED MUCAPE NO MORE THAN ABOUT 100 J/KG...AND LIMITED
MSTR RETURN AHEAD OF THE FNT PER THE 00Z MPX RAOB...WHERE THE H925
AND H85 WINDS WERE SW AT ONLY 5 KTS...IS LIMITING THE COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS. MUCH DRIER AIR IS PRESENT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...SO THERE ARE NOTHING MORE THAN SOME PATCHY CLDS ALONG A
SECOND COLD FNT MOVING INTO FAR NW MN.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SHOWERS/TS AS LEADING SFC COLD FNT CROSSES UPR MI DURING PERIOD OF
DAYTIME HEATING.
TODAY...LEADING SFC COLD FNT IS FCST TO MOVE INTO THE FAR WRN LAND
CWA EARLY THIS MRNG. DESPITE THE NEGATIVE FACTORS LISTED ABOVE...
THERE WL BE AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS AS MODELS FCST AN AREA OF
STRONGER DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA OVER THE
INCOMING FNT. TO THE E...THERE WL BE SOME PATCHY FOG THAT IS LOCALLY
DENSE ESPCIALLY NEAR THE LK SHORES THIS MRNG...BUT ARRIVAL OF
THICKER MID/HI CLDS AND THEN DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CAUSE THIS FOG
TO DISSIPATE EXCEPT NEAR THE SHORES. AS THE FNT PRESSES TO THE E
THRU THE DAY IN THE PRESENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING AND UNDER THE DEEP
LYR FORCING...MODELS INDICATE THIS BNDRY WL ENCOUNTER INCRSG MUCAPE
IN THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE OVER THE SCENTRAL WHEN IT ARRIVES THERE
NEAR 18Z. SINCE THE HIER RES MODELS INDICATE THERE WL BE SOME
GREATER LLVL CNVGC AS THE FNT ENCOUNTERS SOME LK BREEZE BNDRYS
THERE...WL MAINTAIN THE HIER CHC POPS IN THIS AREA...WHERE MAX TEMPS
WL AT LEAST APRCH 80 IN THE PRESENCE OF H85 TEMPS IN THE 13-14C
RANGE. DURING THE AFTN OVER THE W...EXPECT SKIES TO TURN MOSUNNY AS
THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FROPA.
TNGT...ALTHOUGH THE TRAILING SECOND FNT IS FCST TO CROSS UPR MI THIS
EVNG...EARLIER EXIT OF THE DEEPER MSTR INDICATES THERE WL BE ONLY
PATCHY CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS BNDRY. UNDER MOCLR
SKIES...EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 40S AT MOST PLACES AS H85
TEMPS TUMBLE AS LO AS 4C OVER THE NW CWA BY 12Z TUE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
CONFIDENCE IN THE EARLY PART OF THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST IS PRETTY
HIGH WITH DETAILS GENERALLY STRAIGHT FORWARD. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY TOMORROW EVENING. DRIER
AIR WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WITH LAKE BREEZES PUSHING
INLAND AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE U.P. DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
NEXT SHORTWAVE STREAKING EASTWARD IN PRIMARILY ZONAL FLOW ALONG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY
WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT BUT
NOT BEFORE A DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT ACROSS THE EAST WITH
LOWS FALLING TO AROUND 40 IN THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCALES. SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONGST THE MODELS WITH WEDNESDAYS
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE AREA. BASED ON RECENT DISMAL MODEL
PERFORMANCE BEST COURSE OF ACTION WILL BE TO GO WITH A MODEL
CONSENSUS ON POPS FOR THE WED/WED NIGHT TIME PERIOD YIELDING CHANCE
TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE THREAT FOR ROBUST CONVECTION LOOKS LOW.
AS OF NOW...THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...UPPER
TROUGHING DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL EJECT SHORTWAVE
ENERGY EASTWARD IN ZONAL FLOW. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
AGAIN ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
MID CLOUDS MOVING AHEAD OF INCOMING SYSTEM FROM THE WEST MAY LIMIT
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH CLOUDS
WILL UTILIZE A TEMPO GROUP FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF MVFR VSBYS IN FOG AT MAINLY KCMX AND KSAW WHERE DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE ONLY A DEGREE AT PRESENT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. EXPECT IT TO HAVE THE
GREATEST INFLUENCE ON KIWD/KSAW AND HAVE WENT WITH
-SHRA AT THOSE SITES. THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS AT
KIWD LATE TONIGHT AND KSAW ON MONDAY. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES FROM
WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE FRONT MON AFTERNOON INTO MON EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 25KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TROUGH
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SLOWLY EXIT E TODAY...ALONG WITH MUCH OF
THE LINGERING FOG. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N PLAINS THIS EVENING WILL
BUILD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY...AND ACROSS ALL OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
A TROUGH WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS A LOW PUSHES
ACROSS N MANITOBA AND A LOW PASSES NEAR S LAKE MICHIGAN. HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS S CENTRAL CANADA AND THE N PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING
WILL BUILD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN OVER
THE REGION...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES LATE FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ242>245-
248>251-263>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ221-248-
250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
329 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND AT 3 AM WAS LOCATED FROM NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN TO
SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED BEHIND
THIS COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AND FAR EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA IN RESPONSE TO A BIT OF LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...AND
MODELS SHOW AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR THEM TO BUILD EAST ACROSS
SRN MN IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL ARRIVE
LATER THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS IOWA LIFT NORTHEAST
INTO SOUTHEASTERN MN AND WI. THE HRRR HAS A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON
WHAT IS CURRENTLY ON RADAR AND RELIED HEAVILY ON IT FOR THE TRENDS
EXPECTED TODAY. BEST WINDOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO IMPACT AREAS
FROM ALBERT LEA TO EAU CLAIRE IS MID TO LATE MORNING WITH DRIER AIR
ARRIVING THIS AFTERNOON.
THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH CLEARING SKIES. LOWER DEW
POINTS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD WILL BRING LOW TEMPS DOWN
INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S TONIGHT. DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL
PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
THE LONG TERM CONCERNS REMAIN TIMING OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE AREA AS WE REMAIN CLOSE TO BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THE POLAR JET.
ALSO...MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS BECOME MORE
AMPLIFIED AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
INITIALLY...DRY AND MILD WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY. THALER
QG INDICATES FORCING AHEAD OF THE DAKOTAS SHORT WAVE SHOULD BE
ABLE TO SPREAD SOME SHOWERS INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. TIMING STILL LOOKS LIKE THAT THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THREAT SHOULD EXIT INTO WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THUNDER THREAT IS MINIMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
THE NEXT THREAT OF MORE ORGANIZED WEATHER SHOULD MOVE INTO THE
AREA LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
TROPICAL SYSTEM AND ITS ATTENDANT DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH
OF THE AREA. THE NORTHERN JET STREAM FORCING ANOTHER WAVE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. FASTER UPPER FLOW BRINGS ANOTHER TROUGH
INTO THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH
THE TROUGH WITH THE ECMWF PAINTING A DEEP LOW DEVELOPING AND
MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS IS LIKELY OVERDONE...BUT
DETAILS WITH TIMING OF ACTIVITY REMAINS DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME.
IF THE GFS VERIFIES... MUCH OF SATURDAY COULD BE DRY. WE WILL HAVE
TO WAIT AND SEE IF MODEL CONTINUITY BECOMES CLEARER IN FUTURE
MODEL RUNS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DIFFICULT AS WELL...WITH READINGS
RANGING CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGE TRENDING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL AGAIN INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FALL APART...AND WILL BE ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED
TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD
PREVENT ANY FOG FROM FORMING..DESPITE THE LIGHT WINDS. ON MONDAY
WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY...WITH GUSTS NEAR 15KTS.
KMSP...
PRECIP CONTINUES TO DIMINISH...SO HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION FROM
THE TAFS. LIGHT WINDS SHOULD HAVE A WESTERLY COMPONENT BY
06-07Z...AND BECOME NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT. ON MONDAY GUSTS NEAR
15KTS ARE EXPECTED...BUT THESE SHOULD DIMINISH NEAR SUNSET.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS E AT 5 KT
WED...VFR WITH IFR/TSRA POSSIBLE EARLY. WINDS SE AT 15 KT BECOMING
NW AT 10G15 KT AFTER 18Z
THU...VFR. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...JRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1253 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING ALONG AND BEHIND A
COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHED FROM JUST EAST OF ELY INTO SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA AS OF 23Z. WE HAVE SEEN A STRONG STORM OR TWO BUT THEY
HAVE BEEN UNABLE TO GET ORGANIZED. WE EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THIS
EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. FORCING IS NOT
TOO IMPRESSIVE AND MLCAPE/MUCAPE VALUES HAVE DIMINISHED A BIT OVER
THE PAST 3 HOURS PER SPC MESOANALYSIS. WE WILL MONITOR RADAR
TRENDS FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO...THEN MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS
AS COVERAGE HAS BEEN LIMITED SO FAR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
MAIN CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM IS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES AREA OF SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM
INL TO NEAR BJI MOVING EAST. THIS AREA CONTAINED THUNDERSTORMS
EARLIER BUT HAS DECREASED IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES INTO MORE
STABLE AIR. THE CONCERN TONIGHT IS SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT 20Z...THE
FRONT EXTENDED FROM INL THROUGH BJI TO SAZ. BASED ON THE CURRENT
MOVEMENT AND MODEL FORECASTS...IT WILL MOVE THROUGH DLH SOMETIME
THIS EVENING AND OUT OF NW WI BY MONDAY MORNING. THE AREA OUT
AHEAD OF IT IN NE MN RECEIVED A FEW HOURS OF SUN TODAY AND
DUPONT`S ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. SPC MESOSCALE PAGE
INDICATES SOME INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPES OF 500-700 AND LIFTED
INDEXES OF -2 TO -3. THE HRRR INDICATES A LINE OF PRECIPITATION
WILL FORM ACROSS NORTHERN MN AROUND 21-22Z BUT FALL APART AS IT
MOVES EAST THIS EVENING. THE TWIN PORTS AND ARROWHEAD REGION MAY
SEE SOME PRECIPITATION BUT IT MAY BE WIDELY SCATTERED.
A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT
CLEARING OUT THE SKIES WEST TO EAST BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING.
THERE WILL STILL BE A LINGERING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN NW WI
MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT PASS THROUGH THAT REGION.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER MIDWEST REMAINS IN A ZONAL FLOW WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVES THAT TRANSLATE OVER THE REGION.
AN AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OVER MINNESOTA MONDAY
NIGHT...SETTLING OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL
RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS.
THE NEXT WAVE WILL TRANSLATE EAST OUT OF THE DAKOTAS AND INTO
WESTERN MN TUESDAY NIGHT...TRACKING OVER THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY.
THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS WAVE IS STILL SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN...BUT AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION...EAST ACROSS
THE ST CROIX RIVER VALLEY AND OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A COLD FRONT DROP OUT OF
CANADA AND BRINGS ANOTHER SHOT FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
WITH THE CANADIAN AIR MASS.
THE LATEST ECM/GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT WAVE WITH
AN H85 CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE EAST ALONG THE
CANADIAN/NORTH DAKOTA BORDER LATE IN THE WEEK...SWEEPING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME
FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD
OF A 850MB TROUGH FROM NEAR LONG PRAIRIE NORTHEAST TO MOOSE LAKE.
THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT/850MB TROUGH AXIS
MOVE SLOWLY EAST. A MIX OF CONDITIONS FROM LIFR TO VFR WILL OCCUR
WITH THE LIFR IN THE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BEHIND THE FRONT.
FOG HAS FORMED THERE. FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN
SPOTS...BUT SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY MONDAY MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH GOOD MIXING. WE DO EXPECT A
CU FIELD TO DEVELOP...BUT IT WILL BE VFR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 47 66 48 59 / 0 0 50 60
INL 41 69 50 70 / 0 0 10 20
BRD 49 72 53 67 / 0 20 60 60
HYR 47 73 50 68 / 0 10 30 70
ASX 47 66 49 61 / 0 0 30 70
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
435 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE BUILDING UPPER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SE CONUS WILL BE AN INCREASING FACTOR FOR
OUR REGION WHILE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AND SRLY FLOW FEEDS
TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION AND POINTS FURTHER W. DUE TO GOOD
LOW LEVEL SRLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND GOOD MOISTURE/THETA E
ADVECTION TODAY...EXPECT A SIMILAR PATTERN TO YESTERDAY WITH RAIN A
LITTLE FURTHER E THAN GUIDANCE MAY BE INDICATING. HRRR WAS PICKING
UP ON THIS IDEA TOO AND INTRODUCED SOME POPS IN THE NE ALSO. HEAVY
RAIN/GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON BUT DUE
TO MEAGER LAPSE RATES EXPECT MAINLY SUB SEVERE WIND GUSTS AS A LINE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP IN S MS AND PROGRESS TO THE W/NW. LOW
LEVEL FLOW AROUND 15-20KTS WITH SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE SW IS
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY SO ESPECIALLY IN SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA WE CAN
NOT RULE OUT POTENTIAL FOR A STRAY SEVERE STORM...BUT EVEN HERE THIS
POTENTIAL IS TOO CONDITIONAL TO MENTION IN THE HWO. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ALONG AND SW OF A LINE FROM GREENVILLE TO
MERIDIAN BUT WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME STORMS IN NE MS. AS WE PROGRESS
INTO TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
GRADUALLY EXPAND/BUILD TO THE W MORE INTO THE REGION AND GRADUALLY
SHIFT RAIN CHANCES FURTHER W WHILE PUSHING STORM CHANCES INTO THE
DELTA REGION AS WE PROGRESS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. DUE TO SOME
DECENT WIND FIELDS ALOFT AND SIMILAR THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ALONG/W
OF I-55 CORRIDOR...CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME STRONG STORMS AND POSSIBLY
A SEVERE STORM OR TWO MAINLY W OF THE MS RIVER ON TUESDAY.
TROPICS: MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL
TRACK OF THE DEVELOPING TROPICAL SFC LOW IN THE GULF AND THAT IT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NW AND MOVE AROUND THE THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING INTO OUR REGION. DUE TO SOME GRADUALLY
INCREASING WIND FIELDS IN THE W/SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR FOR ANY POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN/SEVERE WEATHER IF THE
RIDGE DOES NOT BUILD IN AS STRONG AND THE SYSTEM TURNS SLIGHTLY MORE
TO THE N THAN W/NW.
FOR FORECAST ELEMENTS...WENT NEAR MAV FOR HIGHS/LOWS BUT MADE SOME
SMALL CHANGES. LOWERED HIGHS IN THE CENTRAL/SW AREAS SLIGHTLY DUE TO
BETTER RAIN/STORM CHANCES AND SIMILAR FOR TOMORROW ALONG/W OF I-55
DUE TO CLOUDS/RAIN CHANCES TO THE W AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS
IN. SKY COVER WENT NEAR RAW GUIDANCE. /DC/
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...WHEREVER EXACTLY THE
SYSTEM CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN THE GULF MAKES LANDFALL IT WILL
LIKELY BE HEADED NORTH TOWARD THE ARKLATEX REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN THE PATH OF THE SYSTEM REMAINING WELL WEST OF OUR
REGION AS IT RECURVES INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM THROUGH LATER THIS
WEEK IS GROWING. ENHANCED TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING FAR TO
THE EAST OF THE CIRCULATION WILL PROBABLY CONCENTRATE LOCAL RAIN
CHANCES WEDNESDAY IN MY FAR WESTERN ZONES WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGING INFLUENCE EXPANDING IN FROM THE EAST TRYING TO DRY THINGS
OUT AND HEAT THINGS UP ELSEWHERE. NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY SOME LOCATIONS EAST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR COULD SEE HIGHS
IN THE MID 90S ON WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS
MAY START BREAKING DOWN JUST A BIT WITH BETTER GULF MOISTURE
ADVECTION (DUE TO LESS RECIRCULATING OF DRY-ISH LOW LEVEL AIR)
CONTRIBUTING TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE TYPICALLY-
HOT 90 TO 94 DEGREE RANGE WITH PLENTY OF HUMIDITY TO INCREASE PEAK
INDICES TO NEAR 100.
MODEL CONSENSUS STILL SUGGESTS A DECENT COLD FRONT GAINING STEAM IN
THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST THIS COMING WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS
UNFORTUNATELY UNCERTAINTY NOW ON WHETHER IT WILL MAKE IT THIS FAR
SOUTH. IF IT DOES NOT GET THIS FAR SOUTH THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HEAT
TO REALLY BUILD GOING INTO NEXT WEEK WITH NOT ENOUGH RAIN AROUND TO
COOL THINGS OFF MUCH. LET US HOPE THE FRONT MAKES IT HERE. /BB/
&&
.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE KGLH/KGWO/KJAN/KHKS WHILE SOME LOW
CIGS/VIS ARE IN THE VICINITY OF KMEI...WHILE LIFR CONDS ARE IN THE
KHBG WITH LOW CIGS/VIS. EXPCT THESE SOME LOW STRATUS AND CIGS TO
MOVE IN AFTER 15/10Z AT KJAN/KHKS AND SOME MVFR/IFR CONDS BEFORE
CONDS IMPROVE AFTER 14Z. SOME OF THE FOG/LOW STRATUS AND IFR/LIFR
CONDS WILL REMAIN AT KMEI/KHBG UNTIL AROUND 15/15-16Z TIMEFRAME.
EXPECT WINDS FROM THE S AROUND 7-10KTS THIS AFTN. SOME VCTS ARE PSBL
AROUND KHBG/KJAN/KHKS AROUND 15/18-20Z. /DC/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 91 72 92 72 / 33 13 18 10
MERIDIAN 92 69 92 71 / 25 12 10 8
VICKSBURG 91 72 90 73 / 37 22 26 17
HATTIESBURG 91 73 92 71 / 36 13 18 8
NATCHEZ 89 73 88 73 / 50 35 29 16
GREENVILLE 91 74 91 74 / 28 13 24 21
GREENWOOD 92 73 92 73 / 24 12 13 13
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
DC/BB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1139 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2015
.UPDATE:
Issued at 1001 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2015
Still expecting scattered showers and thunderstorms the rest of
the night over the area. Currently there is one area moving east
from central Missouri and another moving north from south central
Missouri. Latest runs of the RAP show pockets of low level
moisture convergence over the region throughout the night which
justifies the continued chance. Otherwise, do expect much fall in
temperatures as current readings are close to the dewpoints.
Conditions will remain very humid.
Britt
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2015
Diurnal heating of the very moist air mass across the region has
yielded SBCAPES of 2000-2500 J/KG this afternoon and scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms. Anomalously high water content
with PWs above 90th percentile at 1.8+ inches is resulting in very
efficient rainfall production and have seen a few reports of rates
in excess of 4 in/hr, however longevity has been only on the order
of less than 30 minutes given scattered coverage. There are no
evident upper level features aiding current storms, thus expect
them to follow a strong diurnally driven cycle with coverage
rapidly decreasing early this evening. From the later evening into
the overnight hours have dramatically reduced pops the southern
half of the CWA and highest in the chance range across the northeast
third of the CWA along the periphery of the stronger southwesterly
and slightly confluent low level flow.
Glass
.LONG TERM: (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2015
A very wet pattern is still in the offing for the upcoming week
with the best apparent time frame for widespread heavy rainfall
in the Tuesday-Wednesday Night time frame. A sw-ne oriented cold
front will be encroaching on the northern CWA on Monday afternoon
and slowly progressing southward Monday night into Tuesday when
best indications are it will become quasi-stationary bi-secting
the CWA. Meanwhile during this same time frame, a steady series
of weak disturbances within the sw flow aloft on the periphery of
the upper level high, combined with the moisture rich/buoyant air
mass across the region and the front will result in increasingly
widespread showers and thunderstorms. Instability and deep layer
shear across the region on Monday afternoon and early evening will
be sufficient for possible pulse storms and multicell clusters
with a damaging wind threat, while the high moisture content will
continue to support heavy downpours.
Will probably eventually need a flash flood watch in the
aforementioned Tuesday-Wednesday night period. Unknown is the
impact of current TD#1 near the Yucatan. Models diverge on the
speed and location but the general consensus is this will strengthen
and track NW into TX then track north with the remnant low moving
northeast along the periphery of the upper high centered in the
southeastern U.S.. A general range of solutions has the center
generally moving across southeast MO and southern IL on Thursday
with greatest impacts along and to the right of the center. High
level moisture however will provide a boost to the already high
H2O content in the midweek time frame and the aforementioned heavy
rainfall potential.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1134 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2015
Activity has diminished once again, though some scattered activity
not out of question for KCOU and KUIN overnight. Otherwise, best
chances will be during the day on Monday everywhere but hard to
pin down coverage and timing, so just have vicinity thunderstorms
after 18z Monday. Then dry things out after 03z Tuesday. As for
winds, to remain from the south to southwest through the forecast
period, becoming light and variable by Monday evening.
Specifics for KSTL:
Best chances will be during the day on Monday but hard to pin down
coverage and timing, so just have vicinity thunderstorms after 18z
Monday. Then dry things out after 03z Tuesday. As for winds, to
remain from the south to southwest through the forecast period,
becoming light and variable by 03z Tuesday.
Byrd
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
342 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THIS. THIS SYSTEM WILL
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL BRING AN ANOTHER CHANCE AT
POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. THERE IS ALSO
SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE
DAY BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA BY
MID WEEK WILL WE RETURN TO DRIER CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1246 AM EDT MONDAY...JUST A FEW TWEAKS TO THE GOING
FORECAST.
RADAR SHOWING A GROWING AREA OF SHOWERS EXTENDING WELL NORTH INTO
ONTARIO THAT ARE STEADILY MOVING EAST AND ARE NOW ENTERING THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS RESULTING FROM WARM FRONTAL LIFT. SHOULD
START RAINING LIGHTLY AT KMSS AND KSLK WITHIN THE HOUR. SHOWERS
SHOULD MAINLY BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE, THOUGH THERE ARE SIGNS THAT
THERE COULD BE SOME MODERATE SHOWERS AS WELL. LATEST HRRR USED TO
AUGMENT THE LOCATION AND TIME OF THE PRECIPITATION.
LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 AS CLOUDS
AND PRECIP WILL PREVENT TOO MUCH OF A DROP.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT SUNDAY...MONDAY MORNING WILL SERVE AS THE LULL
BETWEEN THE IMPULSES OF ENERGY FROM THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. MOVE OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WE WILL SEE
SOME SLIGHT DRIER AIR FEEDING IN FROM THE WEST AS A NORTHERN
STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN CANADA BEGINS TO PHASE
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE NET RESULT
FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY IS THAT THERE WILL BE BREAKS DURING THE DAY
WITH NO SHOWERS. THE POTENTIALLY PATCHY CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW
ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR SOME SURFACE HEATING TO
DEVELOP WHICH WILL BEGIN TO UNSTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. AS THE
MOISTURE FROM THE PHASING SYSTEMS MOVES INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY SOME CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AND WITH 30-40 KTS OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND 300-500 J/KG OF INSTABILITY THERE COULD BE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. AT THE MOMENT I DON`T FEEL THE OVERLAP IS
ALL THAT GREAT BUT SPC HAS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE MAIN THREAT AS STRONG TO
DAMAGING WINDS. AS OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE I HAVEN`T INCLUDED ANY
MENTION OF ENHANCED WORDING FOR THE SHOWERS ALONG THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY.
TUESDAY WILL BE THE MORE INTERESTING OF THE TWO DAYS IN THE EARLY
WEEK AS THE PHASED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE
REGION. ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE FORECAST REGION AS THE FRONT DRAWS CLOSER TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THAT ENERGY AND DYNAMIC FORCING WILL DESTABILIZE
MOST OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
ALONG WITH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AS ONCE AGAIN PATCHES OF
SCATTED CLOUDS WILL BE OVER THE AREA. AS THE FRONT MOVES IN CLOSER
A STRONG 50-70KT JET WILL BE PRESENT AT 500MB. THIS COMBINED WITH
THE LIGHT WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL CAUSE STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. AS THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE PHASED FRONT MOVES DOWN FROM
CANADA THERE WILL BE DECENT CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WITH THE NAM
FORECASTING 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE WITH MODERATE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AS WELL. THIS COMBINATION OF LIFT FROM THE FRONT,
INSTABILITY FROM THE SCATTERED CLOUDS AND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW
LEVELS COULD LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR VERMONT AND PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK. TIMING
RIGHT NOW BASED ON THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
CONVECTION WILL BEGIN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE THROUGH
IN THE EARLY EVENING. WITH ONLY MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EXPECT THE MAIN THREAT TO ONCE AGAIN BE DAMAGING WINDS WHERE SOME
TREES OR POWER LINES COULD BE BLOWN DOWN. THERE IS INCREASED
CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS SO WITH THIS UPDATE
I DID GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE THE MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS IN THE
FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE A CHALLENGE BASED ON WHERE THE DRY
SLOT IN BETWEEN THE WAVES OF ENERGY WILL REACH. AS OF THE 12Z
SUITE OF GUIDANCE I ANTICIPATE THE DRIER AIR WONT REACH THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SO EXPECT A ROUGHLY 10-15 DEGREE SPREAD IN MAX
TEMPS FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN THE
UPPER 70S AND SOUTHERN VERMONT IN THE MID TO LOW 60S. OVERNIGHT ON
MONDAY TEMPS WILL HOLD FAIRLY NORMAL IN IN THE MID 50S EAST OF THE
GREENS AND IN THE LOW 60S IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. THEN
TUESDAY WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLEARING THERE IS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TO ALLOW FOR DAYTIME HEATING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
BUT THE IDEA WILL BE THAT TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE
THE FRONT FINALLY CLEARS THE AREA BRINGING SOME COOLER AIR FROM
THE NORTH DROPPING TEMPERATURES TUESDAY EVENING BY ABOUT 3-5
DEGREES FROM MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE PATTERN CHANGE EVIDENT AS WE
PROGRESS FROM MID-WEEK ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH NRN NY/NEW
ENGLAND REMAINING EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ZONAL WESTERLIES. THIS WILL
ALLOW WEAK NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PASSAGES TO OCCUR EVERY 2 TO 3
DAYS THAT WILL FOSTER ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES BUT KEEP EXCESSIVE
HEAT WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. FORECAST TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF LATE SPRING SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD,
SHOWING HIGHS IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60 WITH CUSTOMARY VARIABILITY. THE BEST SHOT OF SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDER WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A
WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND THEN AGAIN BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND ENERGY STREAMING EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL SOLUTIONS ARE SUFFERING
TO SOME EXTENT FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE LARGE-SCALE MASS
FIELDS OF THIS LATTER SYSTEM. THUS QPF/POP/TEMP FORECASTS HAVE
SLIGHTLY LOWER CONFIDENCE AS WE PROGRESS FROM SATURDAY ONWARD INTO
SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...MIX OF VFR/MVFR TODAY WITH PATCHY LIGHT RAIN
THROUGH 12-14Z TIME FRAME, ENDING THEREAFTER. BLOCKED FLOW AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP BKN/OVC SKIES ACROSS THE
AREA AFTER 12Z WITH SOME LINGERING PATCHY MVFR POSSIBLE DESPITE
-RA ENDING. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT, THOUGH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT KPBG AND AT KBTV/KRUT/KMPV.
OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
06Z TUESDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR RAIN SHOWERS,
ESPECIALLY KRUT.
00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE. PATCHY
MVFR/IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KRUT/KSLK/KMPV.
12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH SCT MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
RAIN SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.
06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN BR/FG, HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE AT KMPV/KSLK.
12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MVFR/SCATTERED IFR IN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...NEILES/SISSON
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/MV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
119 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THIS. THIS SYSTEM WILL
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL BRING AN ANOTHER CHANCE AT
POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. THERE IS ALSO
SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE
DAY BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA BY
MID WEEK WILL WE RETURN TO DRIER CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1246 AM EDT MONDAY...JUST A FEW TWEAKS TO THE GOING
FORECAST.
RADAR SHOWING A GROWING AREA OF SHOWERS EXTENDING WELL NORTH INTO
ONTARIO THAT ARE STEADILY MOVING EAST AND ARE NOW ENTERING THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS RESULTING FROM WARM FRONTAL LIFT. SHOULD
START RAINING LIGHTLY AT KMSS AND KSLK WITHIN THE HOUR. SHOWERS
SHOULD MAINLY BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE, THOUGH THERE ARE SIGNS THAT
THERE COULD BE SOME MODERATE SHOWERS AS WELL. LATEST HRRR USED TO
AUGMENT THE LOCATION AND TIME OF THE PRECIPITATION.
LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 AS CLOUDS
AND PRECIP WILL PREVENT TOO MUCH OF A DROP.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT SUNDAY...MONDAY MORNING WILL SERVE AS THE LULL
BETWEEN THE IMPULSES OF ENERGY FROM THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. MOVE OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WE WILL SEE
SOME SLIGHT DRIER AIR FEEDING IN FROM THE WEST AS A NORTHERN
STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN CANADA BEGINS TO PHASE
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE NET RESULT
FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY IS THAT THERE WILL BE BREAKS DURING THE DAY
WITH NO SHOWERS. THE POTENTIALLY PATCHY CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW
ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR SOME SURFACE HEATING TO
DEVELOP WHICH WILL BEGIN TO UNSTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. AS THE
MOISTURE FROM THE PHASING SYSTEMS MOVES INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY SOME CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AND WITH 30-40 KTS OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND 300-500 J/KG OF INSTABILITY THERE COULD BE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. AT THE MOMENT I DON`T FEEL THE OVERLAP IS
ALL THAT GREAT BUT SPC HAS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE MAIN THREAT AS STRONG TO
DAMAGING WINDS. AS OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE I HAVEN`T INCLUDED ANY
MENTION OF ENHANCED WORDING FOR THE SHOWERS ALONG THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY.
TUESDAY WILL BE THE MORE INTERESTING OF THE TWO DAYS IN THE EARLY
WEEK AS THE PHASED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE
REGION. ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE FORECAST REGION AS THE FRONT DRAWS CLOSER TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THAT ENERGY AND DYNAMIC FORCING WILL DESTABILIZE
MOST OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
ALONG WITH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AS ONCE AGAIN PATCHES OF
SCATTED CLOUDS WILL BE OVER THE AREA. AS THE FRONT MOVES IN CLOSER
A STRONG 50-70KT JET WILL BE PRESENT AT 500MB. THIS COMBINED WITH
THE LIGHT WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL CAUSE STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. AS THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE PHASED FRONT MOVES DOWN FROM
CANADA THERE WILL BE DECENT CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WITH THE NAM
FORECASTING 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE WITH MODERATE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AS WELL. THIS COMBINATION OF LIFT FROM THE FRONT,
INSTABILITY FROM THE SCATTERED CLOUDS AND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW
LEVELS COULD LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR VERMONT AND PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK. TIMING
RIGHT NOW BASED ON THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
CONVECTION WILL BEGIN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE THROUGH
IN THE EARLY EVENING. WITH ONLY MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EXPECT THE MAIN THREAT TO ONCE AGAIN BE DAMAGING WINDS WHERE SOME
TREES OR POWER LINES COULD BE BLOWN DOWN. THERE IS INCREASED
CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS SO WITH THIS UPDATE
I DID GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE THE MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS IN THE
FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE A CHALLENGE BASED ON WHERE THE DRY
SLOT IN BETWEEN THE WAVES OF ENERGY WILL REACH. AS OF THE 12Z
SUITE OF GUIDANCE I ANTICIPATE THE DRIER AIR WONT REACH THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SO EXPECT A ROUGHLY 10-15 DEGREE SPREAD IN MAX
TEMPS FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN THE
UPPER 70S AND SOUTHERN VERMONT IN THE MID TO LOW 60S. OVERNIGHT ON
MONDAY TEMPS WILL HOLD FAIRLY NORMAL IN IN THE MID 50S EAST OF THE
GREENS AND IN THE LOW 60S IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. THEN
TUESDAY WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLEARING THERE IS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TO ALLOW FOR DAYTIME HEATING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
BUT THE IDEA WILL BE THAT TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE
THE FRONT FINALLY CLEARS THE AREA BRINGING SOME COOLER AIR FROM
THE NORTH DROPPING TEMPERATURES TUESDAY EVENING BY ABOUT 3-5
DEGREES FROM MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT SUNDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE REGION AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT DRY AND HOLDS
OFF BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. WILL OPT
TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
FROM CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE KEPT IN CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
CANADA ON FRIDAY AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
MODELS SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODELS
SHOW INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AND
HAS A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER AND BRING THIS FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY.
INTERESTINGLY THE ECMWF MODEL TAKES THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE JUST
EAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVES IT
NORTHWEST INTO TEXAS...AND THEN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BEFORE TURNING IT NORTHEAST UP THE OHIO VALLEY. THE ECMWF
HAS THE REMNANTS OF THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY NEXT SUNDAY. EITHER WAY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS WANT TO BRING IN PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THUS...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR FOR SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...MIX OF VFR/MVFR TODAY WITH PATCHY LIGHT RAIN
THROUGH 12-14Z TIME FRAME, ENDING THEREAFTER. BLOCKED FLOW AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP BKN/OVC SKIES ACROSS THE
AREA AFTER 12Z WITH SOME LINGERING PATCHY MVFR POSSIBLE DESPITE
-RA ENDING. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT, THOUGH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT KPBG AND AT KBTV/KRUT/KMPV.
OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
06Z TUESDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR RAIN SHOWERS,
ESPECIALLY KRUT.
00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE. PATCHY
MVFR/IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KRUT/KSLK/KMPV.
12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH SCT MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
RAIN SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.
06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN BR/FG, HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE AT KMPV/KSLK.
12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MVFR/SCATTERED IFR IN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...NEILES/SISSON
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...JMG/MV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1247 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THIS. THIS SYSTEM WILL
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL BRING AN ANOTHER CHANCE AT
POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. THERE IS ALSO
SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE
DAY BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA BY
MID WEEK WILL WE RETURN TO DRIER CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1246 AM EDT MONDAY...JUST A FEW TWEAKS TO THE GOING
FORECAST.
RADAR SHOWING A GROWING AREA OF SHOWERS EXTENDING WELL NORTH INTO
ONTARIO THAT ARE STEADILY MOVING EAST AND ARE NOW ENTERING THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS RESULTING FROM WARM FRONTAL LIFT. SHOULD
START RAINING LIGHTLY AT KMSS AND KSLK WITHIN THE HOUR. SHOWERS
SHOULD MAINLY BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE, THOUGH THERE ARE SIGNS THAT
THERE COULD BE SOME MODERATE SHOWERS AS WELL. LATEST HRRR USED TO
AUGMENT THE LOCATION AND TIME OF THE PRECIPITATION.
LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 AS CLOUDS
AND PRECIP WILL PREVENT TOO MUCH OF A DROP.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT SUNDAY...MONDAY MORNING WILL SERVE AS THE LULL
BETWEEN THE IMPULSES OF ENERGY FROM THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. MOVE OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WE WILL SEE
SOME SLIGHT DRIER AIR FEEDING IN FROM THE WEST AS A NORTHERN
STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN CANADA BEGINS TO PHASE
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE NET RESULT
FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY IS THAT THERE WILL BE BREAKS DURING THE DAY
WITH NO SHOWERS. THE POTENTIALLY PATCHY CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW
ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR SOME SURFACE HEATING TO
DEVELOP WHICH WILL BEGIN TO UNSTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. AS THE
MOISTURE FROM THE PHASING SYSTEMS MOVES INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY SOME CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AND WITH 30-40 KTS OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND 300-500 J/KG OF INSTABILITY THERE COULD BE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. AT THE MOMENT I DON`T FEEL THE OVERLAP IS
ALL THAT GREAT BUT SPC HAS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE MAIN THREAT AS STRONG TO
DAMAGING WINDS. AS OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE I HAVEN`T INCLUDED ANY
MENTION OF ENHANCED WORDING FOR THE SHOWERS ALONG THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY.
TUESDAY WILL BE THE MORE INTERESTING OF THE TWO DAYS IN THE EARLY
WEEK AS THE PHASED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE
REGION. ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE FORECAST REGION AS THE FRONT DRAWS CLOSER TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THAT ENERGY AND DYNAMIC FORCING WILL DESTABILIZE
MOST OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
ALONG WITH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AS ONCE AGAIN PATCHES OF
SCATTED CLOUDS WILL BE OVER THE AREA. AS THE FRONT MOVES IN CLOSER
A STRONG 50-70KT JET WILL BE PRESENT AT 500MB. THIS COMBINED WITH
THE LIGHT WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL CAUSE STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. AS THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE PHASED FRONT MOVES DOWN FROM
CANADA THERE WILL BE DECENT CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WITH THE NAM
FORECASTING 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE WITH MODERATE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AS WELL. THIS COMBINATION OF LIFT FROM THE FRONT,
INSTABILITY FROM THE SCATTERED CLOUDS AND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW
LEVELS COULD LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR VERMONT AND PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK. TIMING
RIGHT NOW BASED ON THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
CONVECTION WILL BEGIN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE THROUGH
IN THE EARLY EVENING. WITH ONLY MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EXPECT THE MAIN THREAT TO ONCE AGAIN BE DAMAGING WINDS WHERE SOME
TREES OR POWER LINES COULD BE BLOWN DOWN. THERE IS INCREASED
CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS SO WITH THIS UPDATE
I DID GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE THE MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS IN THE
FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE A CHALLENGE BASED ON WHERE THE DRY
SLOT IN BETWEEN THE WAVES OF ENERGY WILL REACH. AS OF THE 12Z
SUITE OF GUIDANCE I ANTICIPATE THE DRIER AIR WONT REACH THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SO EXPECT A ROUGHLY 10-15 DEGREE SPREAD IN MAX
TEMPS FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN THE
UPPER 70S AND SOUTHERN VERMONT IN THE MID TO LOW 60S. OVERNIGHT ON
MONDAY TEMPS WILL HOLD FAIRLY NORMAL IN IN THE MID 50S EAST OF THE
GREENS AND IN THE LOW 60S IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. THEN
TUESDAY WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLEARING THERE IS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TO ALLOW FOR DAYTIME HEATING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
BUT THE IDEA WILL BE THAT TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE
THE FRONT FINALLY CLEARS THE AREA BRINGING SOME COOLER AIR FROM
THE NORTH DROPPING TEMPERATURES TUESDAY EVENING BY ABOUT 3-5
DEGREES FROM MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT SUNDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE REGION AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT DRY AND HOLDS
OFF BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. WILL OPT
TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
FROM CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE KEPT IN CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
CANADA ON FRIDAY AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
MODELS SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODELS
SHOW INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AND
HAS A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER AND BRING THIS FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY.
INTERESTINGLY THE ECMWF MODEL TAKES THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE JUST
EAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVES IT
NORTHWEST INTO TEXAS...AND THEN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BEFORE TURNING IT NORTHEAST UP THE OHIO VALLEY. THE ECMWF
HAS THE REMNANTS OF THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY NEXT SUNDAY. EITHER WAY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS WANT TO BRING IN PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THUS...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR FOR SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z
TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO START THE PERIOD AS
APPROACHING WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION BRINGING SHOWERS
AFTER 02Z. EXPECT KSLK CEILINGS TO DROP TO MVFR AROUND 03Z...WITH
OTHER STATIONS FOLLOWING SUIT BETWEEN 08-13Z. SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE
OUT OF THE AREA BETWEEN 14-16Z.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY AROUND THE REGION...WITH
KBTV/KPBG/KRUT SEEING STRONGER WINDS GUSTING 10-20 KNOTS AFTER
13Z.
OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z TUESDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR RAIN SHOWERS,
ESPECIALLY KRUT.
00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE. PATCHY
MVFR/IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KRUT/KSLK/KMPV.
12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH SCT MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
RAIN SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.
06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN BR/FG, HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE AT KMPV/KSLK.
12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MVFR/SCATTERED IFR IN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...NEILES/SISSON
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...MV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
424 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH MID WEEK.
THE WORST OF THE HEAT WAVE IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOMEWHAT
LOWER TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO WEAKEN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS
WEEK WILL BE ISOLATED.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...TODAY WILL BE MORE OPPRESSIVE THAN THE WEEKEND
AND TUE LOOKS TO BE THE PEAK OF THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. A HEAT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR LATE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY EVE. THE HEAT INDEX WILL COMMONLY REACH 105 TO 107 DEG
AND A FEW SPOTS MAY TOP THAT FOR AN HOUR.
TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL RISE TO ABOUT 21 DEG C TODAY. THIS IS A DEG
HIGHER THAN ON SUN. ON SUN...INLAND THERMOMETERS REGISTERED UPPER
90S AND A FEW SPOTS...LIKE LBT...REACHED OR JUST EXCEEDED 100 DEG.
LOCATIONS NEARER TO THE COAST WERE ALSO HOT...MAINLY UPPER 90S WITH
LOWER TO MID 90S AT THE BEACHES. AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BUILD...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT LEAST AS HOT AS ON SUN IF NOT A
DEG OR TWO HIGHER IN MOST LOCATIONS. WE ARE FORECASTING WIDESPREAD
HIGHS AROUND 100 DEG INLAND. THE MORE COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 90S WITH LOWER TO MID 90S CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE
BEACHES. THE SEABREEZE SHOULD MAKE SOME INLAND PROGRESS GIVEN THE
LIGHT W TO SW FLOW IN THE LOWEST 3 K FT. HOWEVER...THIS WILL ONLY
SERVE TO KEEP COASTAL DEWPOINTS ELEVATED OR INCREASE THEM SLIGHTLY
WHICH WILL ONLY ADD TO THE DISCOMFORT LEVEL.
RECORD HIGHS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO REACH OR EXCEED TODAY...BUT THERE
IS A POSSIBILITY IN SOME LOCATIONS.
THE RECORD HIGH AT FLO IS 104 SET IN 1981 AND THE FORECAST HIGH FOR
TODAY IS 102.
THE RECORD HIGH AT ILM IS 100 SET IN 1880 AND THE FORECAST HIGH FOR
TODAY IS 99.
THE RECORD HIGH AT CRE IS 98 SET IN 2010 AND THE FORECAST HIGH FOR
TODAY IS 96.
TEMPS AFTER SUNSET WILL BE VERY WARM WITH MANY PLACES STILL IN THE
LOWER 80S AROUND MIDNIGHT. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE MID AND UPPER
70S AND THE BEACHES MAY NOT DROP BELOW 80 DEG.
AS THE HEAT HAS BUILT...THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR LESS IN THE WAY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH EACH PASSING DAY. THE SUBSIDENCE WILL
BE EVEN GREATER TODAY THAN ON SUN AND TEMPS IN THE MID LEVELS WILL
REMAIN SIMILAR. HOWEVER...VERY STRONG HEATING WILL INCREASE
INSTABILITY WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH 1500 TO
2000 J/KG. THUS WILL SHOW AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FOR
ONLY A SMALL PART OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE...PRIMARILY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEABREEZE WITH PERHAPS A
SPOTTY POP-UP THUNDERSTORM INLAND IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH. THE HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL IS ALSO SHOWING VERY LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...STRONG MID TO UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH MID WEEK CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH PLENTY
OF SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AT THE LOW
LEVELS THOUGH TO COMBINE WITH STRONG HEATING OF THE DAY TO PRODUCE
LOCALIZED CONVECTION ALONG SEA BREEZE...PIEDMONT TROUGH AND OTHER
CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES. WINDS UP THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY WEAK WITH A LIGHT STEERING FLOW OUT OF THE W-NW AND SFC
WINDS GENERALLY DOMINATED BY SEA/LAND BREEZE. IT WILL BE THE
SUBTLE CHANGES IN WINDS AND MOISTURE THAT WILL DICTATE THE CHANGE
IN CONVECTION EACH DAY. A FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE SOUTH WILL
NOT MAKE IT INTO THE AREA BUT SOME ADDED MOISTURE WILL ADVECT
SOUTHWARD MAY ADD TO CONVECTION ON WED WITH PCP WATER VALUES
REACHING UP CLOSER TO 2 INCHES POOLING ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE STRONG
RIDGE OVERHEAD AND H5 HEIGHTS UP NEAR 594 DEM AS WELL AS A
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND. LOOKS LIKE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
AND 850 TEMPS WILL PEAK ON TUES AND THEREFORE EXPECT WARMEST TEMPS
THIS DAY WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING TEMPS CLOSER TO THE COAST NEAR 100
AND TEMPS INLAND A FEW DEGREES HIGHER. THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
WILL KEEP DEWPOINT TEMPS UP IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WHICH IN
TURN WILL PRODUCE VERY HIGH HEAT INDICES AND MAINTAIN VERY WARM
OVERNIGHT TEMPS. HEAT INDICES ON TUE WILL REACH HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA ONCE AGAIN BUT WED MY FALL JUST SHY. POTENTIAL FOR AN
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WILL EXIST ON TUES WITH HEAT INDICES UP TO
110F IN SPOTS. LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL UP IN THE 70S TO AROUND
80.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...RIDGE HOLDS TOUGH FOR THE MOST PART BUT DOES
GET SUPPRESSED SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND EAST ALLOWING FOR SOME H5 HEIGHT
FALLS AND POSSIBLY SOME PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW ALOFT TO RIDE
OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. OVERALL EXPECT VERY WARM WEATHER TO
CONTINUE WITH LOCALIZED CONVECTION MOST DAYS FOCUSED ALONG SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY AND PIEDMONT TROUGH. GFS DOES INDICATE A
SHORTWAVE PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE CAROLINAS ON SAT INTO SUN
WITH A STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT AND BETTER CHC FOR
CONVECTION SAT AFTN INTO THE EVE. TEMPS WILL RUN SLIGHTLY LOWER
TOWARDS THE WEEKEND WITH MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S AS COMPARED
TO MID 90S TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS
HOLDING CLOSER TO 70 OR SO...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO REMAIN IN
THE MID 70S MOST PLACES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...NEARLY CLEAR SKIES/VFR EXPECTED THROUGH SUNRISE. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT SW OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING LIGHT W-WNW
TOWARDS SUNRISE. FEW-SCT CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING. WINDS
WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE S WITH THE SEA BREEZE LATE MORNING AT KCRE
AND IN THE AFTERNOON AT KMYR AND KILM. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ATTM ALONG THE SEA BREEZE PINNED NEAR THE
COAST AND ALONG THE WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH LOCATED NEAR THE INLAND
TERMINALS. WILL ONLY INDICATE VCSH ATTM. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND 00Z.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONCERT WITH A LARGE
UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WILL INCLUDE
THE MORNING LAND BREEZE AND THE NEARLY PINNED AFTERNOON AND EVE
SEABREEZE. THE WIND DIRECTION TO START THE PERIOD WILL BE FROM THE W
AT LESS THAN 10 KT. SW WINDS WILL RETURN BY LATE MORNING AND THEN
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE 10 TO 15 KT...WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE DUE
TO SEABREEZE INFLUENCES AND TONIGHT AS SOME NOCTURNAL JETTING
RETURNS. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT TODAY WITH SOME 3 FT SEAS DEVELOPING
LATER IN THE DAY AND BECOMING MORE PREVALENT TONIGHT. A WEAK 9 TO 11
SECOND SE SWELL WILL BE PRESENT.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT PREVAILING WINDS WILL ALLOW
SEA/LAND BREEZE TO DOMINATE THE FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH MID
WEEK. A WEAKENED BOUNDARY MAY GET A PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO
PRODUCE A SHIFT IN WINDS TO THE N-NE AND EAST THROUGH WED. WINDS
WILL BE 10 TO 15 KTS FOR THE MOST PART...BUT MAY BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER ON WED. SEAS BASICALLY 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A
LONGER PERIOD UP TO 11 SEC SOUTHEAST SWELL MIXING IN WITH THE
SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN WITH LAND/SEA
BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH DRIVING THE WINDS EACH AFTN/EVE. WINDS
MAY REACH UP TO 15 KTS ON FRI PRODUCING A SLIGHT RISE IN SEAS UP
TO 3 TO 4 FT. GRADIENT TIGHTENS FURTHER HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND
AND SHOULD SEE SW WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS BY SATURDAY WHICH IN
TURN SHOULD PUSH THE SEAS UP TO 3 TO 5 FT.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...
ALTHOUGH THIS MAY NOT BE RECORD-BREAKING HEAT IT`S STILL THE
FIRST TIME IN ALMOST 3 YEARS WE`VE HAD THESE KIND OF TEMPERATURES
IN THE FORECAST.
97 98 99 100 101 102 103
WILMINGTON 6/14/15 7/27/12 7/27/12 7/27/12 7/27/12 6/30/12 6/30/12
MYRTLE BEACH 6/14/15 7/24/12 7/28/05 7/27/05 7/27/05 8/17/54 8/17/54
FLORENCE 6/13/15 9/02/14 6/14/15 7/09/14 7/26/12 7/09/12 7/01/12
THIS IS ALSO AVAILABLE GRAPHICALLY ON OUR FACEBOOK & TWITTER PAGES
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053>056.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...RJD/MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1252 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. EVENING SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
AND MANITOBA ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO
MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH TOWARDS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. MODELS
INDICATE THESE CLOUDS ENCROACHING INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA 12-15
UTC MONDAY...WITH SOME DISCREPANCIES ABOUT HOW QUICKLY THEY WILL
ERODE. FOR NOW WE DID BUMP UP SKY COVER A LITTLE MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE NORTH. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 906 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS DWINDLING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AHEAD OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT...LOCATED FROM PEMBINA TO
GRAFTON...STRETCHING SOUTHWEST INTO GARRISON TO NEAR GRASSY
BUTTE. CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE FRONT SAGGING
SOUTH TO THE BORDER THROUGH 06Z. EXPECT A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AFTER
SUNSET.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 515 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF WEAK 3HR PRESSURE FALLS
CONFINED MOSTLY TO SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A 90KT-100KT JETSTREAK PER LATEST
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA
ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SECONDARY/WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHING
FROM BRANDON MANITOBA/CYBR...TO MINOT/KMOT...AND WEST TO
SIDNEY/KSDY MONTANA. RESULTANT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS PULSATING UP AND DOWN PER LATEST REGIONAL/KMOT RADAR
CONTINUES OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL. THE LATEST HRRR VERIFYING WELL
AND REMAINS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH
WEAKENS/DISSIPATES THE SHOWERS THROUGH 03Z MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO SAG TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER BETWEEN 06Z-09Z WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. INHERITED FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN DRY AND
COOL WEATHER FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.
CURRENTLY...QUASI-ZONAL/CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A SECONDARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AS
HIGH RES MODELS EARLIER INDICATED. HRRR AND 4KM NMM WRF GENERATE
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST
OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SO EXPECT WEATHER TRENDING DRY THROUGH THE
EVENING.
FLOW ALOFT REMAINS QUASI-ZONAL WITH DRY AND COOL SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. RESULTANT WEATHER WILL BE PLEASANT...HIGHS 65-75...LIGHT
WINDS...AND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY LOOKS ACTIVE WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVERYDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS. INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...WITH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOWING MINIMAL CAPE AND SHOWALTER
INDICES ABOVE ZERO. THEREFORE...REMOVED THE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY...WITH PRIMARILY RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY.
WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK...SEVERAL FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS
WILL SWING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVERY DAY OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
ADDITIONALLY...WITH SEVERAL COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THIS
WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
FOR THE 06 UTC TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE PERIOD
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. MAINLY LOW VFR CLOUDS BUT SOME SCATTERED
MVFR CLOUDS AS WELL ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA WILL
MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA 12-15 UTC MONDAY...THEN
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES OF KDIK...KBIS AND KJMS AROUND 18
UTC MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES ASSOCIATED WITH HOW
QUICKLY THESE CLOUDS WILL ERODE DURING THE DAY MONDAY. MODEL BUFR
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BETWEEN 850-700MB
OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. FOR NOW WILL MENTION A BROKEN LAYER
OF VFR CEILINGS MONDAY BUT WILL NOT MENTION ANY MVFR CEILINGS.
NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHEAST 00-06Z TUESDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1149 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
LIGHT WINDS OVER THE RRV INTO NW MN AND CLEARING HAS PRODUCED SOME
PATCHY FOG IN THE USUAL AREAS..I.E. BEMIDJI. ADDED PATCHY FOG IN
THAT AREA. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
CURRENT SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS AXIS OF A 1000 PLUS J/KG MXD LYR
CAPE ALONG THE SD/MN STATE LINE WITH 500 TO 1000 J/KG EXTENDING
INTO CENTRAL MN AND CLIPPING THE FAR SE...HOWEVER THAT AREA IS NOW
CLOUD COVERED AND INSTABILITY SHOULD DECREASE THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTN. RADAR TRENDS SHOW REMAINING ACTIVITY MOVING INTO
NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WITH EASTERN ND CLEARING OUT AND
RECEIVING SUNSHINE. LAST HRRR UPDATE FOR 1 PM FCST HAD GOOD HANDLE
ON THESE TRENDS AND WILL NOT NEED MUCH CHANGE...BUT WILL UPDATE
NEAR TERM WITH LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE PRIOR TO FCST ISSUANCE. THERE
IS CLEARNING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND SOME CU AND MID LEVEL CLOUD
EVIDENT AS A NORTHERN VORT MAX MOVES IN TO SRN MB...HOWEVER THERE
IS VIRTUALLY NO CAPE IN THE AREA. A CELL DID DEVELOP NORTH OF
MINOT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE MORE THAN ISOLD TO WIDELY
SCT. MOST LIKELY AREA FOR ANY ISOLD STORMS WOULD BE DVL REGION UP
TO THE INTL BORDER.
SFC HIGH DROPS INTO REGION ON MONDAY AND SHOULD BRING SUNNY SKIES
BUT A COOL CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S DURING THE DAY...AND CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 40S AS
THE SFC HIGH IS RIGHT OVER THE VALLEY AT 06Z TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
TUE AND WED...WARM ADVECTION PRECIP SPREADS MAINLY ACROSS SD
DURING THE DAY TUE AND LIFTS IN TO OUR CWA BY LATE TUE AFTN.
SHOWALTERS REMAIN 4 OR GREATER WITH MEAN LYR CAPES LESS THAN 100
IN THE FAR SOUTH...SO HAVE CHANGED PRECIP TYPE OVER TO SHRA.
PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO PULL PRECIP OUT OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST LATE WED
AFTN INTO WED NIGHT.
BEYOND TUE/WED SHRA ACTIVITY...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION WILL COME ON FRIDAY. THE GFS IS PROGGING A STRONG SFC
LOW AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THE ECMWF ALSO HAS
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SHOWERS AND STORMS...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS
UNSTABLE AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH DEEP MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD START
OUT A BIT BELOW NORMAL AND WARM TO NEAR NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
PATCHY GROUND FOG AT BEMIDJI AND MAYBE THIEF RIVER OVERNIGHT SO
ADDED TEMPO FOR 1SM VSBY. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT BECOMING NORTHWEST
10 TO 20 KTS ON MONDAY. CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP MID MORNING BECOMING
BROKEN DECK IN THE 4-6K FT RANGE MIDDAY AND AFTN. THEN CLEAR EARLY
EVENING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...DK/SPEICHER
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
340 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AREAWIDE...WITH A BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH. UPPER HIGH
EDGES IN FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT EDGES
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA TUESDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY. RUC
HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON A DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO AND NORTHERN WV THIS MORNING...SO WILL RELY ON THE RUC FOR
MORNING POPS. BY THIS AFTERNOON...EACH MODEL VARIES ON THE PLACEMENT
OF CONVECTION. SINCE DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST...WILL RUN THE HIGHEST POPS IN THIS REGION AND RUN LOWER
POPS IN THE SOUTH WHERE SOME DRIER AIR IS TRYING TO INTRUDE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AN ACTIVE SHORT TERM ON
TAP WITH A BUILDING WATER ISSUE ACROSS SE OH AND N WV.
TUES LOOKS TO BE AN ACTIVE DAY AS A DAMPENING S/W TROF ATTEMPTS TO
BEAT BACK THE UPPER RIDGE ENOUGH TO ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SAG INTO
THE CWA. AS A RESULT WILL CONTINUE THE LIKELY POPS FROM PREVIOUS
FCST CENTERED OVER SE OH AND N HALF OF WV...PRIMED DURING MAX
HEATING HRS. SOME STRONG TO SVR STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS
SPC HAS PLACED AREAS N OF I64 IN SLIGHT RISK.
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL TRY TO MAKE IT DOWN TO US 50 CORRIDOR
BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY BY TUES NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS SE OH AND N WV LOWLANDS TUESDAY GIVEN
HIGH PWATS AND POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING ALONG THE SAGGING FRONT. SOME
OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BEGINS TO WANE TUES NIGHT SO THINK THE
OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL FOLLOW SUITE AND TEND TO
FOCUS JUST ON THE BOUNDARY.
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE HEADING INTO WED WITH HOW THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN PLAYS OUT. THE MORE AMPLIFIED NAM TAKES A STOUT S/W TROF OUT
OF THE S PLAINS WHICH ALLOWS THE RIDGE TO BUILD BACK N AND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO HEAD BACK N AS WELL AND WASH OUT. THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE MUCH MORE TAME WITH THIS DISTURBANCE AND HOLD DOWN THE
RIDGE...ALLOWING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO REMAIN DRAPED OVER N
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL TRY TO PLAY A MIDDLE ROAD SOLUTION WHICH
SEEMS TO BETTER REFLECT THE NEW EURO SOLUTION. THIS ALLOWS FOR MORE
STORMS OVER SE OH AND N WV WITH LOWER CHANCES S OF I64 CORRIDOR.
THINGS TRY TO QUIET SOME WED NIGHT BUT WITH THE FRONT STILL
AROUND...KEPT SOME HIGHER POPS IN OVER SE OH AND N WV.
THU APPEARS TO BE AN ACTIVE DAY WAS WELL AT LEAST FOR SE OH WITH THE
LINGERING BOUNDARY AND CONTINUED DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION ROUNDING
THE TOP OF THE A BEATEN DOWN RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO MET/SREF/PREVIOUS WITH THE MAV LOOKING A BIT
TOO LOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WE HAVE LOST THE GFS SOLUTION SHOWING A BREAK IN THE WEATHER FRI INTO
SAT. WHILE A LARGE NRN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL CROSSES ERN
CANADA THU INTO THU NT...IT DOES NOT DIG AS FAR S AS PREVIOUSLY
PROGGED...AND THE COLD FRONT AND CANADIAN HIGH DO NOT GET AS FAR S
EITHER...SO THE FCST AREA STAYS IN THE SOUP. IT DOES STILL SHOW A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE DEEP S LIFTING OUT AND REACHING THE
FCST AREA THU...SO THIS STILL LOOKS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY. STILL
TRIED TO STAY AWAY FROM WPC CAT POPS. BUT HAVE LIKELY MUCH OF THE
DAY.
THE ECMWF HOLDS THAT S/W TROUGH BACK UNTIL FRI NT/SAT. OTHERWISE THE
MODELS BASICALLY SHOW A CONTINUATION OF THE GENERAL PATTERN. THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH SLOWLY EASES OFF THE SE COAST...WHICH ALLOWS THE
BOTTOM OF THE WESTERLIES TO SAG A BIT FARTHER SWD...INTO THE FCST
AREA...NEXT WEEKEND.
LITTLE CHANGES NEED TO TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE MOSTLY A BLEND OF
PREVIOUS...WPC AND THE MEX.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. A DISTURBANCE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV EARLY THIS MORNING. AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE MOST
COVERAGE OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF
CONVECTION...EXACT TIMING IS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS.
.AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF MORNING FOG WILL DEPENDS OF LOCATIONS THAT
GET RAIN.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...FB/RPY
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JSH/TRM
AVIATION...RPY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
340 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AREAWIDE...WITH A BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH. UPPER HIGH
EDGES IN FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT EDGES
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA TUESDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY. RUC
HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON A DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO AND NORTHERN WV THIS MORNING...SO WILL RELY ON THE RUC FOR
MORNING POPS. BY THIS AFTERNOON...EACH MODEL VARIES ON THE PLACEMENT
OF CONVECTION. SINCE DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST...WILL RUN THE HIGHEST POPS IN THIS REGION AND RUN LOWER
POPS IN THE SOUTH WHERE SOME DRIER AIR IS TRYING TO INTRUDE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AN ACTIVE SHORT TERM ON
TAP WITH A BUILDING WATER ISSUE ACROSS SE OH AND N WV.
TUES LOOKS TO BE AN ACTIVE DAY AS A DAMPENING S/W TROF ATTEMPTS TO
BEAT BACK THE UPPER RIDGE ENOUGH TO ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SAG INTO
THE CWA. AS A RESULT WILL CONTINUE THE LIKELY POPS FROM PREVIOUS
FCST CENTERED OVER SE OH AND N HALF OF WV...PRIMED DURING MAX
HEATING HRS. SOME STRONG TO SVR STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS
SPC HAS PLACED AREAS N OF I64 IN SLIGHT RISK.
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL TRY TO MAKE IT DOWN TO US 50 CORRIDOR
BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY BY TUES NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS SE OH AND N WV LOWLANDS TUESDAY GIVEN
HIGH PWATS AND POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING ALONG THE SAGGING FRONT. SOME
OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BEGINS TO WANE TUES NIGHT SO THINK THE
OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL FOLLOW SUITE AND TEND TO
FOCUS JUST ON THE BOUNDARY.
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE HEADING INTO WED WITH HOW THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN PLAYS OUT. THE MORE AMPLIFIED NAM TAKES A STOUT S/W TROF OUT
OF THE S PLAINS WHICH ALLOWS THE RIDGE TO BUILD BACK N AND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO HEAD BACK N AS WELL AND WASH OUT. THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE MUCH MORE TAME WITH THIS DISTURBANCE AND HOLD DOWN THE
RIDGE...ALLOWING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO REMAIN DRAPED OVER N
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL TRY TO PLAY A MIDDLE ROAD SOLUTION WHICH
SEEMS TO BETTER REFLECT THE NEW EURO SOLUTION. THIS ALLOWS FOR MORE
STORMS OVER SE OH AND N WV WITH LOWER CHANCES S OF I64 CORRIDOR.
THINGS TRY TO QUIET SOME WED NIGHT BUT WITH THE FRONT STILL
AROUND...KEPT SOME HIGHER POPS IN OVER SE OH AND N WV.
THU APPEARS TO BE AN ACTIVE DAY WAS WELL AT LEAST FOR SE OH WITH THE
LINGERING BOUNDARY AND CONTINUED DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION ROUNDING
THE TOP OF THE A BEATEN DOWN RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO MET/SREF/PREVIOUS WITH THE MAV LOOKING A BIT
TOO LOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WE HAVE LOST THE GFS SOLUTION SHOWING A BREAK IN THE WEATHER FRI INTO
SAT. WHILE A LARGE NRN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL CROSSES ERN
CANADA THU INTO THU NT...IT DOES NOT DIG AS FAR S AS PREVIOUSLY
PROGGED...AND THE COLD FRONT AND CANADIAN HIGH DO NOT GET AS FAR S
EITHER...SO THE FCST AREA STAYS IN THE SOUP. IT DOES STILL SHOW A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE DEEP S LIFTING OUT AND REACHING THE
FCST AREA THU...SO THIS STILL LOOKS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY. STILL
TRIED TO STAY AWAY FROM WPC CAT POPS. BUT HAVE LIKELY MUCH OF THE
DAY.
THE ECMWF HOLDS THAT S/W TROUGH BACK UNTIL FRI NT/SAT. OTHERWISE THE
MODELS BASICALLY SHOW A CONTINUATION OF THE GENERAL PATTERN. THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH SLOWLY EASES OFF THE SE COAST...WHICH ALLOWS THE
BOTTOM OF THE WESTERLIES TO SAG A BIT FARTHER SWD...INTO THE FCST
AREA...NEXT WEEKEND.
LITTLE CHANGES NEED TO TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE MOSTLY A BLEND OF
PREVIOUS...WPC AND THE MEX.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. A DISTURBANCE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV EARLY THIS MORNING. AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE MOST
COVERAGE OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF
CONVECTION...EXACT TIMING IS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS.
.AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF MORNING FOG WILL DEPENDS OF LOCATIONS THAT
GET RAIN.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...FB/RPY
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JSH/TRM
AVIATION...RPY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
130 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AREAWIDE...WITH A BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH. UPPER HIGH
EDGES IN FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT EDGES
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA TUESDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CURRENT FORECAST IS RIGHT ON TRACK. HIGH RES SHORT TERM MODELS ARE
STILL SHOWING A SHORTWAVE CROSSING TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT. THE CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST SHOULD BE GOOD. IT IS POSSIBLE NOTHING WILL
RESULT LIKE THE SHOWERS FROM THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO MAKE ANY CHANGES.
... 8 PM UPDATE... CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MINIMAL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND
ANY STORMS THAT DID DEVELOP HAD A HARD TIME REACHING THE FREEZING
LEVEL. RUC AND HRRR KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NORTH AS
ANOTHER IMPULSE IF FORECASTED. SO WON/T MAKE MANY IF ANY CHANGES TO
WHAT CURRENTLY HAVE. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH AND RE-EVALUATE. MAY
NEED TO LOWER OVERNIGHT POPS.
...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE WARM AND HUMID WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...AND UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. DEW POINTS
CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE
REGION...AND WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES TOPPING THE RIDGE AT
TIMES...CONTINUING TO SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES.
ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH AT 17Z...WILL
HELP TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHEAST
OHIO AND NORTHERN WV THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...TO BE FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTH.
ACROSS THE NORTH IS ALSO THE BEST LOCATION FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE
WEATHER...WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE...AS 30-40 KTS UNIDIRECTIONAL
SHEAR IN PLACE. OF COURSE...A SEVERE STORM DRIFTING SOUTHEAST INTO
OTHER PARTS OF THE CWA SUCH AS CENTRAL WV...CANNOT BE RULED
COMPLETELY OUT...AND ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DRIFTING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
INTO THE AREA WILL ONLY HELP TO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. IN ADDITION...VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE REALIZED WITH ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS. THIS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ISSUES IF REPETITIVE STORMS HIT THE SAME
LOCATION. GOOD NEWS IS THAT WITH THE FLOW...STORMS WILL AT LEAST
MOVE ALONG. SO...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES...BUT IN COMING
DAYS...AREA COULD BECOME PRIMED FOR ISSUES.
THE WARM AND HUMID PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH HOLDS FIRM OVER THE SERN STATES THIS PERIOD...WHILE
UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGHS TRAVERSE THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND NERN
STATES ALONG THE BOTTOM OF THE WESTERLIES ON THE N SIDE OF THE HIGH.
THIS PLACES THE FCST AREA IN A MOISTURE GRADIENT WITH PW VALUES
CLOSE TO TWO INCHES ACROSS THE N VS 1 TO 1.5 INCHES TO THE S...IN
THE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER HIGH.
THE UPPER HIGH BULGES A BIT NWD MON NT BETWEEN S/W/S. TOGETHER WITH
THE DIURNAL MIN...MOST OF THE NT LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET. ONE
S/W TROUGH CROSSES TUE...ARRIVING EARLY SO THIS DAY LOOKS TO BE
ACTIVE...WITH THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE N.
THE BOTTOM OF THE WESTERLIES FLATTENS OUT TUE NT IN THE WAKE OF THE
S/W SO THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS CARRIED
THROUGHOUT THE NT. THE HIGH DOES BULGE A BIT N ON WED IN THE
RELATIVE ABSENCE OF S/W/S...AND PW VALUES LOWER TO 1.5 OR LESS EVEN
ACROSS PARTS OF THE N. SO CARRIED A GENERIC CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
BASED MAINLY ON DIURNAL HEATING IN THE WARM AND STILL SOMEWHAT HUMID
AIR ON THE MOVE...ALONG WITH CONTINUITY AND COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORS.
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO MET/SREF/PREVIOUS WITH THE MAV LOOKING A BIT
TOO LOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WE HAVE LOST THE GFS SOLUTION SHOWING A BREAK IN THE WEATHER FRI INTO
SAT. WHILE A LARGE NRN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL CROSSES ERN
CANADA THU INTO THU NT...IT DOES NOT DIG AS FAR S AS PREVIOUSLY
PROGGED...AND THE COLD FRONT AND CANADIAN HIGH DO NOT GET AS FAR S
EITHER...SO THE FCST AREA STAYS IN THE SOUP. IT DOES STILL SHOW A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE DEEP S LIFTING OUT AND REACHING THE
FCST AREA THU...SO THIS STILL LOOKS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY. STILL
TRIED TO STAY AWAY FROM WPC CAT POPS. BUT HAVE LIKELY MUCH OF THE
DAY.
THE ECMWF HOLDS THAT S/W TROUGH BACK UNTIL FRI NT/SAT. OTHERWISE THE
MODELS BASICALLY SHOW A CONTINUATION OF THE GENERAL PATTERN. THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH SLOWLY EASES OFF THE SE COAST...WHICH ALLOWS THE
BOTTOM OF THE WESTERLIES TO SAG A BIT FARTHER SWD...INTO THE FCST
AREA...NEXT WEEKEND.
LITTLE CHANGES NEED TO TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE MOSTLY A BLEND OF
PREVIOUS...WPC AND THE MEX.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. A DISTURBANCE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV EARLY THIS MORNING. AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE MOST
COVERAGE OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF
CONVECTION...EXACT TIMING IS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS.
.AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF MORNING FOG WILL DEPENDS OF LOCATIONS THAT
GET RAIN.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...FB/SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...JSH/TRM
AVIATION...RPY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1156 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 6Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY AFFECT ALL SITES
AFTER ABOUT 9Z. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE AS
WELL. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE DURING
THE DAY MONDAY. STORMS WILL BE HIT AND MISS... BUT ANY SITE AFFECTED BY
A STORM CELL WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST THAT SOME ACTIVITY
MAY CONTINUE TO FESTER OVERNIGHT AS A DEEP TROPICAL AIRMASS
REMAINS IN PLACE BUT WILL LOWER POPS SOME AS COVERAGE SHOULD NOT
BE MORE THAN 30 PERCENT OR SO.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
BUT THE MAIN STORY THIS WEEK WILL BE THE TROPICAL SYSTEM LIFTING
NORTH NORTHWEST THROUGH THE GULF. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
TRACK NEAR OR OVER OUR FORECAST AREA AROUND MIDWEEK WITH A HIGH
LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY AND POTENTIALLY FLOODING RAINFALL NEAR ITS
TRACK.
UPDATE ON THE WAY.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...06
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
358 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN PARKED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THIS WEEK. PENNSYLVANIA WILL REMAIN IN THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER RIDGE WITH A SURFACE FRONT OSCILLATING
OVER THE STATE...PRODUCING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE FOR WED...BUT ADDITIONAL SHOWERY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN BY THU. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PREVAIL AGAIN
FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WATER VAPOR LOOP AT 06Z SHOWS SHORTWAVE TRACKING NORTH OF LK
ONTARIO. ASSOC LL JET AND PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS IS SLIDING
SOUTH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS MORNING...ACCOMPANIED BY
NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA. RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR SUPPORT
CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING
AND CHC ACROSS THE NORTH. FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS UP THRU 10Z
ACROSS THE N MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS. HOWEVER...THE REAL THREAT
REMAINS FROM CAMBRIA CO SOUTHWARD...WHERE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
REMAINS TO SUPPORT CONVECTION AND EXCESSIVE RAIN RATES. RAP WARM
CLOUD DEPTH REMAINS NR 4KM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...INDICATIVE
OF A TROPICAL AIR MASS AND HIGH RAIN RATE POTENTIAL.
THE ENTIRE REGION REMAINS SOUTH OF QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EARLY
THIS AM WITH HIGH HUMIDITY...WHICH WILL HOLD TEMPS FROM FALLING
ANY LOWER THAN ARND 70F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
CENTRAL PA WILL REMAIN ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
MONDAY. AXIS OF HIGHEST GEFS PWAT ANOMALIES INDICATE SOUTHERN PA
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR RING OF FIRE CONVECTION. HAVE KEPT POPS
BTWN 60-65 PCT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WHERE PM TSRA ARE
LIKELY. AIR MASS WILL BE WARM AND UNSTABLE AGAIN...BUT MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR SVR WX WITH MID LVL WESTERLY FLOW OF ARND 30KTS.
MODERATE CAPES WILL BE CREATED BY AFTN BRINGING SLIGHT RISK OF SVR
STORMS FROM SPC. BREAKS OF SUN SHOULD HELP PUSH TEMPS WELL INTO
THE 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DID NOT CHANGE A LOT.
MAIN THING WAS TO EDGE TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES HERE AND THERE.
TENDENCY FOR EC TO SHOW LESS HEIGHT FALLS EACH DAY.
SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AGAIN LATE MONNDAY...AS FRONT TILTS
BACK TO THE NW FROM LOW DROPPING SE ACROSS NE PA LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUE.
SOME MORE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE STORMS ON TUE...AS
FRONT MOVES SE. HARD TO FOLLOW GFS POPS FOR MDT LATE TUE. FRONT
MOVING INTO THAT AREA JUST AFTER PEAK HEATING. THUS WENT HIGHER
ON POPS THAN GUIDANCE ACROSS THE SE.
STILL ENOUGH PUSH TO GET SOME DRY WEATHER INTO THE AREA LATER TUE
NIGHT INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF WED.
NAM SHOWS A CRAZY DAY ON THU...WITH WARM ADVECTION...SHEAR
AND CAPE. THUS WENT RATHER HIGH WITH POPS. AGAIN...AS NOTED
ABOVE...DID UP TEMPS SOME.
SOME BREAK POSSIBLE LATER FRIDAY INTO SUN...AS MODELS HINT
THAT FRONT COULD DROPS SOUTH OF PA. EC NOT SHOWING A LOT OF
HEIGHT FALLS...SO HAVE LOW CHC POPS IN FOR SOME OF THE TIME.
REALLY NOT SEEING MUCH CHANGE IN THE PATTERN ANYTIME SOON.
VERY FAST WEST TO EAST FLOW WILL KEEP ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS
A LARGE CHUCK OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH DAY 10.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFTER AN ACTIVE AFTENOON/EVENING...CONDITIONS SETTLING DOWN A BIT
OVERNIGHT. MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN FOCUSED SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM KDUJ-KUNV-KLNS...WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS THAT
WILL BRING LOCALIZED RESTRICTIONS. CONDITIONS OVERALL WILL SLIP
BACK TO IFR IN THE NORTHERN MTNS...WITH MVFR BECOMING LIKELY FOR
THE CENTRAL MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS. BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSS IN THE
SE TOWARD SUNRISE.
EXPECT RESTRICTIONS TO END BY MID MORNING MONDAY. LOOKS LIKE THERE
WILL BE A BREAK IN THE CONVECTION THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...BUT
SCATTERED TSRA NORTH TO NUMEROUS TSRA SOUTH FIRE UP AGAIN FOR
MID/LATE AFTERNOON...WITH ROVING RESTRICTIONS. ATMOSPHERE WILL
REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SVR WX WITH MID LVL WESTERLY FLOW
AROUND 30KTS.
AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE NW...MOST LIKELY AREA
FOR CONVECTION MON NIGHT SHIFTS BACK TO THE NW PORTION OF CWA /AND
MAY EXTEND INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS ON NOSE OF A LL JET/...BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSS PRETTY MUCH ANYWHERE
ACROSS CENTRAL PA IN MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...COLD FRONT. REDUCTIONS LIKELY IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG. OTHERWISE VFR SE...MVFR NW.
WED...PRIMARILY VFR.
THU-FRI...CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033-037-041-042-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WATSON/DEVOIR/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
233 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN PARKED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THIS WEEK. PENNSYLVANIA WILL REMAIN IN THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER RIDGE WITH A SURFACE FRONT OSCILLATING
OVER THE STATE...PRODUCING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE FOR WED...BUT ADDITIONAL SHOWERY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN BY THU. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PREVAIL AGAIN
FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WATER VAPOR LOOP AT 06Z SHOWS SHORTWAVE TRACKING NORTH OF LK
ONTARIO. ASSOC LL JET AND PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS IS SLIDING
SOUTH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS MORNING...ACCOMPANIED BY
NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA. RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR SUPPORT
CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING
AND CHC ACROSS THE NORTH. FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS UP THRU 10Z
ACROSS THE N MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS. HOWEVER...THE REAL THREAT
REMAINS FROM CAMBRIA CO SOUTHWARD...WHERE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
REMAINS TO SUPPORT CONVECTION AND EXCESSIVE RAIN RATES. RAP WARM
CLOUD DEPTH REMAINS NR 4KM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...INDICATIVE
OF A TROPICAL AIR MASS AND HIGH RAIN RATE POTENTIAL.
THE ENTIRE REGION REMAINS SOUTH OF QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EARLY
THIS AM WITH HIGH HUMIDITY...WHICH WILL HOLD TEMPS FROM FALLING
ANY LOWER THAN ARND 70F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
CENTRAL PA WILL REMAIN ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
MONDAY. AXIS OF HIGHEST GEFS PWAT ANOMALIES INDICATE SOUTHERN PA
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR RING OF FIRE CONVECTION. HAVE KEPT POPS BTWN 60-65
PCT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WHERE PM TSRA ARE LIKELY. AIR
MASS WILL BE WARM AND UNSTABLE AGAIN...BUT MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
FOR SVR WX WITH MID LVL WESTERLY FLOW OF ARND 30KTS. MODERATE
CAPES WILL BE CREATED BY AFTN BRINGING SLIGHT RISK OF SVR STORMS
FROM SPC. BREAKS OF SUN SHOULD HELP PUSH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DID NOT CHANGE A LOT.
MAIN THING WAS TO EDGE TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES HERE AND THERE.
TENDENCY FOR EC TO SHOW LESS HEIGHT FALLS EACH DAY.
SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AGAIN LATE MONNDAY...AS FRONT TILTS
BACK TO THE NW FROM LOW DROPPING SE ACROSS NE PA LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUE.
SOME MORE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE STORMS ON TUE...AS
FRONT MOVES SE. HARD TO FOLLOW GFS POPS FOR MDT LATE TUE. FRONT
MOVING INTO THAT AREA JUST AFTER PEAK HEATING. THUS WENT HIGHER
ON POPS THAN GUIDANCE ACROSS THE SE.
STILL ENOUGH PUSH TO GET SOME DRY WEATHER INTO THE AREA LATER TUE
NIGHT INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF WED.
NAM SHOWS A CRAZY DAY ON THU...WITH WARM ADVECTION...SHEAR
AND CAPE. THUS WENT RATHER HIGH WITH POPS. AGAIN...AS NOTED
ABOVE...DID UP TEMPS SOME.
SOME BREAK POSSIBLE LATER FRIDAY INTO SUN...AS MODELS HINT
THAT FRONT COULD DROPS SOUTH OF PA. EC NOT SHOWING A LOT OF
HEIGHT FALLS...SO HAVE LOW CHC POPS IN FOR SOME OF THE TIME.
REALLY NOT SEEING MUCH CHANGE IN THE PATTERN ANYTIME SOON.
VERY FAST WEST TO EAST FLOW WILL KEEP ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS
A LARGE CHUCK OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH DAY 10.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SE PA
AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL PA.
OTHERWISE...JUST SOME SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH LOW CIGS
AND FOG.
EXPECT FOG AND LOW CIGS TO BURN OFF BY MID MORNING ON
MONDAY.
WENT WITH A DRY FCST FOR MONDAY AFT. EXPECT WINDS TO BE
NW...AND ACTION SHOULD BE MAINLY EAST OF OUR AREA. MAIN
CONCERN FOR STORMS ON MONDAY WOULD BE NE OF IPT...NEAR
LOW FCST TO DROP SE FROM NY STATE.
NEXT ROUND OF WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WILL BE LIKELY ON
TUE...AS COLD FRONT MOVES SE.
BEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON WED.
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED ON THU...AS FRONT MOVES
BACK AS A WARM FRONT.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED FOR BULK OF THE DAY.
THU-FRI...CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033-037-041-042-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WATSON/DEVOIR/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
405 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
NOT EXACTLY A CLEARCUT NEAR TERM FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
WHAT APPEARS TO BE A COUPLE DIFFERENT FORCING MECHANISMS AT WORK TO
BRING SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE AREA. MAIN PLAYER THROUGH THE DAY WILL
BE A SLOW MOVING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...LOCATED OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS IS CLEARLY SEEN
IN BROAD-SCALE PRECIP MOTION ON REGIONAL RADAR LOOP...WITH CELLS IN
CENTRAL NEBRASKA DROPPING SOUTH...WHILE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY FROM
EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO IOWA LIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST. LATEST MODELS SHOW
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THIS TROUGH KEEPING PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS OUR
FAR SOUTHEAST THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING...POSSIBLY LONGER THOUGH
GENERAL CONSENSUS DOES SHIFT PRECIP SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA BY 18Z.
SECONDARY PLAYER APPEARS TO BE SUBTLE ELEVATED WAVE/BOUNDARY AROUND
850-800MB...WHICH HAS SPARKED INCREASING DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR CWA OVER THE PAST HOUR. THIS
ACTIVITY ALIGNS FAIRLY WELL WITH AREA OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY
JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK WIND SHIFT SEEN IN BOTH THE RAP AND 06Z NAM.
BOTH MODELS ALSO SHOWING DECENT CONSENSUS IN WEAKENING THIS FEATURE
AS IT SHIFTS INTO NORTHWEST IOWA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...THOUGH
THE RAP IS A BIT FASTER TO LOSE THE FORCING THAN THE NAM. IN EITHER
CASE...EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE A SLOW SHIFT EAST...AND WILL
CONFINE POPS TO AREAS EAST OF KYKN-KFSD-KMML BY 12Z...WITH PRECIP
CHANCES TAILING OFF FAIRLY RAPIDLY 12Z-15Z IN AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY
60 AS THE ELEVATED BOUNDARY WASHES OUT.
WITH THE INCREASED PRECIP CHANCE/GREATER CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY...HAVE SLOWED THE RISE IN TEMPERATURES...THOUGH
STILL ANTICIPATE SOME SUNSHINE AND POTENTIAL FOR WARMING INTO THE
MID-UPPER 70S BY LATE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT WILL BRING CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY AS SURFACE RIDGE
MOVES INTO THE AREA. EXPECT MOST AREAS WILL SEE DECENT BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING THIS AFTERNOON TO SUFFICIENTLY LOWER DEW POINTS AND
MINIMIZE FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THIS IN FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS THOUGH...WHERE MIXING WILL BE MORE LIMITED DUE TO THE
LINGERING CLOUDS. WITH THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN...EXPECT MOST AREAS
TO SEE LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING ONE IN A SERIES OF WAVES
MODELS DEPICT IN A DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW FOR THE WEEK. APPROACH OF
THIS WAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FAIRLY SLOW INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AND A THERMAL PATTERN THAT WILL FAVOR THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR PRECIPITATION
THREAT. THIS WILL BE REFLECTED IN POPS WHICH WILL MAXIMIZE TUESDAY
NIGHT..WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY SPREADING OVER THE AREA AT THAT
TIME. WITH A BIT OF A MISMATCH OF PARAMETERS...THE BEST
INSTABILITY MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTH WHILE THERMAL SUPPORT AND WINDS
ARE MORE FAVORABLE WEST AND NORTH...SPC DAY 2 SEVERE RISK...MOSTLY
MARGINAL IN OUR AREA...IS ACCEPTED FOR NOW. ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND
DOWN WEDNESDAY THOUGH NOT AS FAST AS THE NAM SUGGESTS GIVEN THAT
IT SEEMS A LONER ON THE STRENGTH AND SPEED OF ITS DRY SURGE BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH
A MODEST 75 TO 80 RANGE.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD SEE A LITTLE WARMING WITH ANOTHER THREAT
OF STORMS AS ANOTHER HARD TO TIME WAVE REACHES THE AREA. THE WEEKEND
SHOULD BE BACK TO A LITTLE MORE MODEST WARMTH AND ANOTHER THREAT OF
CONVECTION. THE WAVE SHOWN BY MODELS IS STRONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS
WEAK SYSTEMS ESPECIALLY ON THE NEW EC...HOWEVER TIMING WILL AGAIN BE
DIFFICULT THAT FAR AHEAD. THE GFS AND EC ARE DIFFERENT ON STRENGTH
OF THIS SYSTEM BUT CLOSE ON TIMING...AND IF THEY ARE RIGHT A DRY
COUPLE OF DAYS SHOULD FOLLOW THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
VFR SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT CATEGORY ACROSS KHON...KFSD AND KSUX
THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS AT
KSUX WHERE INDICATIONS ARE FROM THE LATEST NAM THAT THERE COULD BE
SOME BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS MID MORNING MONDAY. ONE THING TO KEEP AN
EYE ON IS THUNDERSTORMS. VERY CONFIDENT THAT KHON IS IN THE
CLEAR...AND FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT ACTIVITY WILL NOT OCCUR AROUND
KFSD. BUT FURTHER SOUTHEAST IN NORTHWEST IA...THE COLD FRONT HAS
NOT PASSED THROUGH YET. THEREFORE AM CONCERNED THAT SOME ISOLATED
TSRA COULD BE CLOSE TO KSUX FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION TRYING TO OOZE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE 500MB FLOW BETWEEN KSUX AND KOMA. SO BETWEEN
THOSE TWO FACTORS...KSUX IS WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z MONDAY. DUE TO THE SKITTISH NATURE OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS...DID NOT INCLUDE A MENTION OF THE TSRA FOR THE
FORTH COMING 06Z KSUX TAF YET.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
334 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. INTO THE MIDSOUTH. CONDITIONS ARE WARM AND HUMID WITH
SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. TEMPS ARE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S WITH A LIGHT SOUTH WIND.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH TODAY. THIS SERVES TO PUSH THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY A LITTLE FURTHER WEST...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS AFTN INTO THE EVENING. A STRONG STORM OR
TWO IS POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS. MORNING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD NOT BE
A PROBLEM SO EXPECT MORE SUNSHINE AREAWIDE TODAY AND TEMPS WILL
CLIMB A LITTLE HIGHER THAN SUNDAY. EXPECT MOST OF THE CONVECTION
TO DISSIPATE BY LATE EVENING. THE GFS DEVELOPS AN MCS OVER
SOUTHERN MO AS AN UPPER TROF TRIES TO PUSH EAST INTO THE UPPER
RIDGE AND SHEARS APART...AND TRIES TO SAG IT INTO NORTHERN PARTS
OF THE MIDSOUTH OVERNIGHT. OTHER MODELS DO NOT CORROBORATE THIS SO
CONFIDENCE IN THAT SCENARIO IS LOW.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE 00Z NAM TRIES TO BRING THE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY LOCATED NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO
NEAR TULSA OK BY 12Z WEDNESDAY BUT THAT SEEMS MUCH TOO FAST. THE
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE IT OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS AT THAT TIME. WILL GO
WITH A UPPER RIDGE DOMINATED FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD WITH THE
BETTER CHANCES FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND LESSER CHANCES TOWARD
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. HIGHS WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH READINGS IN
THE LOWER 90S...PERHAPS SOME MID 90S ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI. HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE GFS AND THE ECMWF MOVE THE DISTURBANCE
OUT OF THE GULF AND ACROSS TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BY
12Z THURSDAY THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED SOMEWHERE ALONG THE RED RIVER
VALLEY...TRACKING ACROSS OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
THIS IS A LONG WAY FROM THE MIDSOUTH AND THE UPPER RIDGE IS STILL
QUITE STRONG ACROSS THE AREA. BUMPED TEMPS UP TO AROUND 90 AND
TRIMMED POPS FOR THURSDAY. BETTER PRECIP CHANCES WILL PROBABLY
HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE
WESTERLIES AND TRACKS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH THE
TROF EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE MID SOUTH. BEST CHANCES WILL
PROBABLY BE ACROSS THE NORTH ON FRIDAY BUT THIS IS COMPLETELY
DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WHICH COULD VARY FROM THE
CURRENT SOLUTIONS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SYSTEM MOVES EAST AND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
RE-ESTABLISHES OVER THE REGION. EXPECT DECREASING PRECIP CHANCES
AND TEMPS BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S.
MONDAY...A COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH PERHAPS SOME
COOLER TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SJM
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS
SCATTERED SHRA BETWEEN MEM AND JBR WILL LIFT NORTH...LEAVING THE
TAF SITES FREE OF RAINFALL OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF THE RESIDUAL
MIDLEVEL CLOUDS NEAR THE MEM TRACON... ONLY SCATTERED HIGH CIRRUS
PREVAILED AT THE OTHER TAF SITES AT 0430Z.
00Z NAM...GFS LAMP AND HRRR INDICATE LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER... GIVEN WEAK/CALM WINDS AND
HIGH DEWPOINTS... SUSPECT THERE IS A REASONABLE POTENTIAL FOR
RADIATIVE FOG / LOW STRATUS FORMATION AT MKL AND TUP.
WITH THE ENCROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE EAST... MONDAY WILL
SEE REDUCED RAIN CHANCES AT ALL BUT JBR. VFR AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL THE MONDAY EVENING MEM CARGO ARRIVAL
PUSH.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1140 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 950 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015/
UPDATE...
AMAZINGLY SIMILAR EVOLUTION OF EVENTS THE PAST FEW DAYS. ANOTHER
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVED NORTH THROUGH THE EVENING WHICH HAS
COOLED TEMPERATURES. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND
WANE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD CLEAR AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS EAST AR.
TVT
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015/
DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES
INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND
A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SOUTHERLY WINDS
ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE UP INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. REGIONAL WSR-88D
RADAR TRENDS INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE MID SOUTH WITH MOST OF THE COVERAGE OCCURRING ALONG AND WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING THEN DIMINISH IN COVERAGE WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
MID SOUTH WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS. BEST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
BE LOCATED ALONG WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH PERHAPS
LESS COVERAGE EAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
SLIGHTLY RETROGRADE WEST. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
SHORT/LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE TEXAS
GULF COAST SOMEWHERE BETWEEN HOUSTON AND CORPUS CHRISTI
TEXAS...MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF TEXAS BY
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AND THEN SHIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MIDDLE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS BY FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE WRF
CONTINUES TO HANDLE THE TROPICAL REMNANTS THE QUICKEST...FOLLOWED
BY THE GFS. THE ECMWF IS CURRENTLY THE SLOWER OF THE SOLUTIONS BUT
HAVE BLENDED FORECAST SOLUTIONS WITH A PREFERENCE TOWARDS THE
ECMWF WHICH TYPICALLY PERFORMS WELL DURING THE SUMMER. HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL MAY BECOME A CONCERN LATE IN THE WEEK DEPENDING
ON THE TRACK OF THE TROPICAL REMNANTS BUT WILL LET LATER SHIFTS
ASSESS THE POTENTIAL THREAT IN SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS BEFORE ADDING
MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK IF NOT SLIGHTLY COOLER
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S.
CJC
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS
SCATTERED SHRA BETWEEN MEM AND JBR WILL LIFT NORTH...LEAVING THE
TAF SITES FREE OF RAINFALL OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF THE RESIDUAL
MIDLEVEL CLOUDS NEAR THE MEM TRACON... ONLY SCATTERED HIGH CIRRUS
PREVAILED AT THE OTHER TAF SITES AT 0430Z.
00Z NAM...GFS LAMP AND HRRR INDICATE LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER... GIVEN WEAK/CALM WINDS AND
HIGH DEWPOINTS... SUSPECT THERE IS A REASONABLE POTENTIAL FOR
RADIATIVE FOG / LOW STRATUS FORMATION AT MKL AND TUP.
WITH THE ENCROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE EAST... MONDAY WILL
SEE REDUCED RAIN CHANCES AT ALL BUT JBR. VFR AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL THE MONDAY EVENING MEM CARGO ARRIVAL
PUSH.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
104 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
.AVIATION... /06Z TAF UPDATE/
A LINE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH SHOULD
APPROACH DRT IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. THIS LINE SHOULD WEAKEN
SOME...BUT WILL STILL EXPECT SOME THUNDER IN THE VCNTY. MOST OF
THE HIGH RES MODEL RUNS SHOW WEAKENING OF THE COMPLEX BY 09Z...
BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH CLOSELY ON THE PWAT RICH ENVIRONMENT.
OTHERWISE THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS SHOULD SEE BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR
SKIES WITH SOME LIGHT BRIEF SHOWERS CAUSING MINIMAL IMPACTS TO
VSBYS. THE NEXT CHALLENGE IS TO ANTICIPATE CHANGING SKIES AS THE
APPROACH OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM BEGINS TO SHIFT WIND DIRECTION AFTER
DAYBREAK. WILL ASSUME GOOD MIXING EARLY TODAY AND SHOW SOME VFR
SKIES FROM MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE NORTHERLY WIND
DIRECTIONS COULD PROLONG VFR SKIES WELL INTO THE EVENING...BUT
WITH HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF TX...WILL SHOW A FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE LOWERING OF CIGS ALONG I-35 FOR MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 934 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015/
UPDATE...
A LINE OF STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE BIG BEND
IS PUSHING TO THE EAST THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO COME ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO
GRANDE PLAINS AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE HRRR/RAP13/TEXAS
TECH/NCAR ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS AGREE ON DISSIPATING THE LINE OF
STORMS AS IT PUSHES TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. CANT
RULE OUT SMALL HAIL WITH STRONGER STORMS. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS COULD RANGE FROM ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH WITH VERY
ISOLATED SPOTS UP TO ONE INCH. ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS MAY
BE IN THE FEW HUNDREDTHS TO ONE QUARTER INCH RANGE. BASED ON THIS
FORECAST PERIOD AND THE LIMITED RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED FOR THE
EASTERN PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT...WE HAVE OPTED TO
CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EARLY ISSUED.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN MID MORNING ON MONDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING AND TUESDAY AS A TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE PUSHES TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A GOOD POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OR STORM WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. STAY TUNED FOR
UPDATES ON THIS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE
TEXAS COAST. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE
EASTERN PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND EVEN ON
WEDNESDAY. A NEW FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS LIKELY TO BE ISSUED ON
MONDAY FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 703 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015/
AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA SITES THROUGH MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. CIGS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER OVERNIGHT TO MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR WITH FEW HOURS OF LIFR MONDAY
MORNING FROM DAWN TO 14Z MONDAY. LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IS
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO MID MORNING ON MONDAY WITH HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED FOR THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS
A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM LATE TONIGHT FOR
STORMS TO MOVE FROM THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS INTO VAL VERDE. ADDED A
TEMPO GROUP TO COVER THIS FROM 05Z TO 07Z MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 6 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHER
GUSTS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...AS DISCUSSED IN THE
MORNING UPDATE...RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CENTRAL CWA...NEAR
SAN ANTONIO IN AN ENHANCED AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE AND DE-STABILIZATION. RICH INFLUX OF HIGH PWAT IS
RESULTING IN HIGH RAINFALL RATES...ALONG WITH SOME TRAINING OF
STORMS NOW ACROSS BEXAR COUNTY. THE PAST SEVERAL HRRR RUNS HAVE
BEEN HANDLING THE TRENDS GENERALLY WELL...WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA...ALONG AND EAST OF A BURNET TO SAN
ANTONIO LINE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. WILL ALLOW THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING HOURS TO BE SAFE.
FARTHER WEST...A FEW MODELS ARE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS COMING OUT OF WEST TEXAS AND NORTHERN
MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
HAVE MENTIONED AGAIN SOME HIGHER POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
FAR WESTERN CWA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE MENTIONED AGAIN EAST OF I-35. LOCALIZED
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE MONDAY.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
ALL EYES ON THE GULF OF MEXICO AND POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM...
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT AND FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
FORECAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM.
A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFF THE YUCATAN AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. AS OF SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WAS GIVING THE SYSTEM A 70
PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...AND A RECON
FLIGHT WAS ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT OF STEERING THE SYSTEM NORTHWEST THROUGH THE GULF
OF MEXICO...AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S...TOWARDS TEXAS BY TUESDAY. GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY
CLUSTERED AROUND A LANDFALL ALONG THE MID TO UPPER TEXAS COAST.
THERE HAS BEEN SOME WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
AND MEAN WITH THE TRACK. ADDITIONALLY...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
IN THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM...WITH THE ECMWF NOW SLOWER WITH THE
SYSTEM THROUGH THE EASTERN CWA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. ADDITIONAL
CHANGES IN THE TRACK/SPEED ARE LIKELY FROM MODELS OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS UNTIL THE SYSTEM CLOSES OFF.
FOLLOWING A CONSENSUS APPROACH...WPC/NHC COORDINATION...AND
ALLOWING FOR SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR ANY WESTWARD SHIFT...WE ARE
SHOWING LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
BEGINNING AS EARLY AS TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...AND
INTO THE CENTRAL CWA...I-35 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN HILL COUNTRY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY WE ARE
FORECASTING 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6+ INCHES ALONG
AND EAST OF A GEORGETOWN TO KARNES CITY LINE. GIVEN THE HEAVY
RAINFALL THAT HAS FALLEN THE LAST MONTH...AND ESPECIALLY THE LAST
24 HOURS ACROSS THESE AREAS...ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN HIGH IMPACT FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING.
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE CWA FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
IT SHOULD CONTINUED TO BE STRESSED...ADDITIONAL SHIFTS IN THE
TRACK AND ORGANIZATION COULD LIKELY RESULT IN LARGE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST WETTER OR DRIER. PLEASE STAY CLOSELY TUNED TO THE
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE DOES LINGER OVER THE CWA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY ALONG WITH A WEAKNESS ALOFT. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS. POSSIBLE DRYING
TAKES PLACE NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 73 85 73 86 74 / 40 70 70 70 40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 73 84 73 87 73 / 40 80 70 80 40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 74 87 73 88 73 / 40 70 70 70 40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 72 83 71 86 72 / 30 70 60 60 40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 75 91 75 92 76 / 20 30 30 30 30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 72 83 72 85 72 / 40 70 70 70 40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 73 88 73 89 74 / 20 50 50 50 40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 73 85 73 87 73 / 40 70 70 80 40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 74 84 74 85 74 / 60 80 80 80 40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 75 87 75 88 74 / 30 60 60 70 40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 75 88 74 89 74 / 30 60 60 70 40
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...OAKS
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1234 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
.DISCUSSION...PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.
&&
.AVIATION...SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WL SLOWLY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTN
HOURS AS DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE AFFECTS PORTIONS OF SOUTH TX
TDA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WL OCCUR ACROSS THE VCT AREA. MVFR
CEILINGS WL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FOR MOST LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY
THROUGH 15Z. AS THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE MIDDLE TX
COAST THROUGH THE FCST PD...THE WIND DIRECTION WL GRADUALLY BACK
TO A MORE EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE
STRONGEST WIND GUSTS WL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THIS TAF
PD. CONVECTION WL TEND TO WANE AROUND SUNSET ESPECIALLY ACROSS ALI
AND LRD. HOWEVER CONVECTION WL LKLY BEGIN TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PD ACROSS CRP AND VCT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 815 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015/
DISCUSSION...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVHD AND THE 00Z
CRP SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR ISOLD/SCT
CONVECTION THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG INCREASING
PWAT/MOISTURE THROUGH MON AS THE DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF CONTINUES
TO MOVE NORTHWEST. THE CHC POPS FCSTD ACROSS THE E CWA AND
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT THEN INCREASING MON...LOOKS REASONABLE.
LONG PERIOD SWELLS ARE ALSO FCST TO INCREASE THROUGH MON/TUE...AND
THUS THE HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AS WELL. THE
RIP CURRENT PRODUCT IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 10 PM CDT...BUT WILL WAIT
FOR LATEST FROM NHC BEFORE EXTENDING IT THROUGH MON. OTHER THAN
POSSIBLY THE RIP CURRENT PRODUCT...NO OTHER CHANGES TO FCST AT
THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015/
DISCUSSION...SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...SOME OF THIS FORECAST WILL DEPEND ON NHC FORECAST OF
DISTURBANCE. AS OF THIS WRITING...STILL A DISTURBANCE (80 PERCENT
CHANCE OF AT LEAST DEPRESSION). MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS EAST OF
SURFACE CIRCULATION...SO WITH THAT IN MIND IF SYSTEM MOVES AS
MODEL CONSENSUS HINTS...WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME CONVECTION OVERNIGHT
AND IN THE MORNING...THEN WANING IN THE AFTERNOON (THE TAFS FOR
00Z TUESDAY WILL BE QUITE DIFFERENT...MORE SHOWERS AND GUSTS...IF
TRACK IS CLOSER TO GFS 18Z...WITH THE OPPOSITE THE CASE IF ECMWF
CANADIAN AND SOME OF THE HURRICANE MODELS ARE HINTING). WILL
MAINTAIN AS IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...AT
LEAST FOR A TIME BEING...WITH VCSH OVERNIGHT FOR EASTERN
TERMINALS. THEN...TEMPO SHRA/TSRA FOR MONDAY MAINLY AFTER
14Z (AGAIN EASTERN TERMINALS)...AND VFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.
WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK...HAVE DECIDED TO JUST GO WITH VCTS FOR
THE AFTERNOON TERMINALS...EXCEPT HAVE A PROB30 AT KVCT AS MOST
LIKELY AREA TO RECEIVE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...FOR
BREVITY...WILL ONLY GO WITH VICINITY AND NOT WITH TEMPO OR PROB30
AT THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...MOIST AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS HAS RESULTED IN SCATTERED CONVECTION TODAY ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS. COVERAGE HAS DIMINISHED SOME OVER THE LAST HOUR...AND
LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR SUGGESTS A LULL IN CONVECTION MAY OCCUR
LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. AS WITH THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS THOUGH...EXPECT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
GULF WATERS INTO THE COASTAL COUNTIES ON MONDAY MORNING. UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS ON MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST WHILE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ATTEMPTS TO SHIFT WWD.
THIS WILL KEEP WEAKNESS ALOFT OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE FARTHER ON MONDAY AS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO
MOVE TO THE NW/NNW ACROSS THE GULF. MODELS PROG PW VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES BY 18Z MONDAY LEADING TO A THREAT OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND HAVE RETAINED A MENTION OF MDT/HVY RAIN IN
THE FORECAST.
ATTENTION WILL THEN OF COURSE TURN TO THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
MOVING NW/NNW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. PREVIOUS GUIDANCE
MAINTAINED A TIGHT CLUSTER WITH REGARDS TO EVENTUAL TRACK...BUT
NOW GUIDANCE CONTAINS A LARGER SPREAD ON THE TRACK. REGARDLESS...
THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST FOR A TROPICAL SYSTEM TO BE APPROACHING
THE MIDDLE/UPPER TEXAS COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...AND NHC HAS GIVEN THIS SYSTEM A 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLASH WATCH FOR NOW BUT
ONE WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA AS THINGS
BECOME A LITTLE MORE CLEAR REGARDING THIS SYSTEM.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON POTENTIAL ORGANIZATION OF THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MAJORITY OF THE
TROPICAL MODELS SHOW THE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING NORTHWEST AND
REACHING THE TEXAS COAST SOMEWHERE BETWEEN ROCKPORT AND GALVESTON
BY TUESDAY MORNING. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO COASTAL PLAINS TUESDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EVEN THOUGH LOW PRESSURE AREA SHOULD BE
NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY...WEAK TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTH
TEXAS TO FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY. WILL SHOW
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
RAINFALL TOTALS 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD
OCCUR OVER CALHOUN AND VICTORIA COUNTIES. MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH ELEVATED SEAS. THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS COULD BE HIGH
UNTIL THURSDAY. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS COULD BE OVER THE REGION
FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. ADEQUATE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION FOR THURSDAY...SO WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FOR THE AREA.
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO SOUTH TEXAS BY FRIDAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST. WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AT
THIS TIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 88 76 89 78 89 / 60 60 60 70 60
VICTORIA 87 74 85 76 87 / 70 60 80 80 80
LAREDO 94 76 96 78 95 / 20 20 30 40 40
ALICE 91 76 90 77 91 / 50 40 60 60 60
ROCKPORT 86 78 87 80 86 / 60 60 80 80 70
COTULLA 92 75 92 76 93 / 20 20 40 40 50
KINGSVILLE 91 76 89 78 90 / 50 50 60 60 60
NAVY CORPUS 86 78 86 80 87 / 60 60 70 70 60
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
MB/80...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1120 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2015
.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
Line of showers and thunderstorms extended from Ft. Stockton to
Big Spring to just west of Snyder at 4Z (11 PM CDT) will move east
around 22 KTS. Latest HRRR models indicates the line to break up
as it moves into east in the Western Big Country and Concho Valley,
however, it is just encountering an eastward moving old thunderstorm
boundary, which may enhance storm development enough to allow the
storms to reach San Angelo and Abilene. Have VCTS beginning at 6Z
at KSJT and 7Z at KABI and KSOA. Gusty west winds of 30 KTS may
precede the line of storms. Otherwise, areas of MVFR stratus to
develop over the terminals tonight, becoming VFR 15-16Z. Isolated
to scattered thunderstorms expected Monday and Monday night. Will
put a VCTS at KABI where the best potential for storms exists.
Gusty winds to 35 KTS and brief lowered visibilities to IFR
possible near storms Monday.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 701 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2015/
AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will affect the KBBD and KJCT
terminals through 1Z, with the main effect being variable gusty
winds. A line of showers and thunderstorms, moving in from the
west, may affect the KABI KSJT KSOA terminals after 6Z tonight.
MVFR stratus returns otherwise returns late night along the I-10
corridor affecting KSOA, KJCT and KBBD. KSJT may see scattered low
clouds towards 12Z. MVFR ceilings otherwise rise to VFR mid/late
morning.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015/
SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)
Convection remains suppressed across most of West TX today as an
area of large scale subsidence has overspread the region from the
west. A subtle shortwave trough is noted south of the CWA, but it`s
most significant impact will be to our south and east. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will continue across the eastern fringe of
the CWA from Mason to Brownwood, with the remainder of the area
likely dry into the evening hours.
Tonight, the next wave of upper-level support will move across the
High Plains. Thunderstorms over eastern NM and west TX are expected
to develop, growing upscale into an MCS. Similar to what we saw last
night, the greatest chance for thunderstorms will be across the Big
Country. A second, smaller complex will be possible, originating
from the southwest Texas convection. These storms may only affect
the southwest portion of the CWA from Ozona to Sonora. Locally heavy
rainfall will be the primary threat, although there could be some
localized strong wind gusts.
A moist, uncapped environment will remain in place on Monday.
However, convection is not expected to be suppressed as much as
today so we anticipate a fuller diurnal cu field and more scattered
convection developing by midday. Where this convection initiates
will be driven by the location of outflow boundaries from overnight
convection. For now...rain chances across the area range from
20-40%. As has been the case, organized severe weather is not
anticipated, but we could see a few strong, pulse storms that
produce locally heavy rainfall.
LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Sunday)
Model guidance has improved today with the overall mid and
upper-level patterns for the first half of the week. They show a
ridge building over the Desert Southwest and the Southeastern states
in the Monday through Wednesday time frame, with an upper trough
(which has been discussed for the past few day) getting sandwiched
in between the ridges. At the same time, a tropical disturbance
currently located northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula, is forecast to
move towards Corpus Christi. The National Hurricane Center gives
this system a 70 percent chance of developing into at least a
tropical storm, and it is forecast to track towards the middle Texas
coast, before turning north and tracking generally along the
Interstate 35 corridor. While this is typically to far east to bring
any threat of widespread heavy rainfall to our region, the one thing
it may do for us is give an influx of tropical moisture into the
aforementioned trough.
Another change noted today has been for a temporary increase in the
strength of the upper trough crossing the state. With slightly
better dynamics in place, precipitation may be somewhat more
widespread Tuesday and Wednesday, and this trend has been noted in
today`s numerical solutions. With this in mind, PoPs were increased
across most of the region. As the tropical disturbance and trough
interact, the previously mentioned ridges get damped out, with
today`s model runs showing an uncapped airmass remaining in place
through Friday. As a result, POPs were extended for this time across
the eastern half of the forecast area.
Heading into the weekend, a ridge will again develop across the
Desert Southwest, with its eastern extent residing over West Central
Texas, effectively ending our rainfall chances as drier air invades
the region.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 69 88 70 86 70 / 40 40 40 50 30
San Angelo 71 90 69 88 70 / 30 20 30 40 30
Junction 72 90 71 89 70 / 20 20 20 50 40
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
350 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
AT 3 AM...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM APOSTLE ISLANDS TO
KANSAS CITY MISSOURI. DEW POINTS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WERE IN THE
60S TO LOWER 70S...AND IN THE 40S AND 50S IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONT. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS NO CONVECTION LOCATED ALONG THIS
FRONT. MEANWHILE FURTHER SOUTH...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF IOWA...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...
AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS PRECIPITATION WAS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN EASTERN NEBRASKA IN A BAND OF 900 TO 500
MB FRONTOGENESIS.
FOR TODAY...THE 15.00Z MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA... WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH IOWA THIS MORNING...AND
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT...THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
1.50 TO 2.00 INCH RANGE. THE HIGHEST TOTALS WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN
IOWA... NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. IN
ADDITION...THE WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS IN THIS AREA WILL BE CLOSE
TO 4 KM. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL MODERATE 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THIS SAME AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY EFFICIENT
RAIN PRODUCERS. RAINFALL TOTALS COULD BE AROUND AN INCH...WITH A
FEW LOCATIONS SEEING UP TO 2 INCHES. WITH THE PRECIPITATION EXPECT
THAT RAP AND NAM ARE TOO HIGH ON THEIR 0-1 KM MIXED LAYER
CAPES...OVERALL PREFER THE LOWER GFS AND ECMWF WHICH HAVE THESE
CAPES LESS THAN 750 J/KG. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE RAP...A
MAJORITY OF THE MODELS HAVE VERY LITTLE 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM
SHEAR...SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...OR
TORNADOES.
FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA. NORMALLY THIS WOULD BE THE SCENARIO
FOR DENSE FOG. HOWEVER THE WINDS ABOVE 500 FEET REMAIN AROUND
20 KNOTS AND THE DRY AIR IS CAUSING DEW DEPARTURES OF 4 TO 8
DEGREES LATE TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE 15.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE QUICKLY EAST THROUGH THE AREA. THE STRONG WESTERLIES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM RESULTS IN 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE EXCESS
OF 50 KNOTS. HOWEVER THIS FRONT IS COMING THROUGH AT THE WRONG
TIME OF DAY AND THE 0-1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPES AT THIS TIME ARE
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...THUS NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER. THE
NAM SHOWS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE INTERACTION FROM A
SYSTEM FROM A SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
MEANWHILE THE GFS IS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE NAM
SOLUTION SEEMS TO BE A BIT TOO FAST...SO WOULD TREND MORE TOWARD
THE GFS.
FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM HAS A SLIGHT
DEEPER TROUGH THAN THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE THE 0-1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPES CLIMBING UP TO 1500 J/KG
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. THEY DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR. THE
GFS HAS 0-6 KM SHEAR GREATER THAN 50 KNOTS. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF
HAS LESS THAN 20 KNOTS. DUE TO THIS DISCREPANCY...THERE ARE A LOT
OF QUESTIONS ON WHETHER THERE WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS
SYSTEM. WHILE THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS...THEY DO SHOW THAT
THERE COULD BE INTERACTION WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE POTENTIAL
TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST GULF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
A MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF BR AND
POSSIBLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH VISIBILITIES FALLING INTO THE 4 TO
5 SM RANGE. A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTH INTO THE REGION AND A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST IOWA WILL
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
MONDAY MORNING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE UNDER ANY THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE
REGION. THE FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS
AND STORMS TAPERING OFF AND SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY EVENING. LOOK FOR WINDS TO SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS OF 9 TO 11 KTS
EXPECTED.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1128 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST OVER WEST-CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. OUTSIDE OF A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS...THE WARM FRONT IS LARGELY
INACTIVE OVER MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
GENERATING SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA...BUT IT IS ALSO QUIET ELSEWHERE ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
CLOSER TO HOME...CLOUD COVER IS GRADUALLY BREAKING UP AS HEATING
HELPS MIX INTO DRIER AIR ABOVE THE INVERSION. CLEARING SHOULD ALSO
WORK INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WI FROM THE WEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TRENDS...AND FOG
POTENTIAL.
TONIGHT...SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STALLED FROM APPROX.
LA CROSSE TO SHEBOYGAN. MEANWHILE...A POCKET OF DRY AIR IN THE MID-
LEVELS WILL EXIST NEAR THE WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT
WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN LATE. THIS DRY AIR SHOULD
KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. THE LONE EXCEPTION
WILL BE OVER N-C WISCONSIN WHERE SOME SHOWERS COULD SNEAK INTO THAT
AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HAVE THOUGHT ABOUT ADDING A CHANCE OF A
SHOWER ALONG THE WARM FRONT...BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT IN THE UPPER
SUPPORT THAT THE NAM PRODUCES. OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLEARING THIS EVENING IF NOT MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...WHICH
WILL PROMOTE FOG FORMATION ONCE AGAIN. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE
REASONABLY LOW EVERYWHERE...SO HARD TO POINT TO A FAVORED AREA.
LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH.
MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND PASS OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI DURING THE MORNING...AND EASTERN WI IN
THE AFTERNOON. PRECIP COVERAGE UPSTREAM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS
NOT IMPRESSIVE...SO DID NOT WANT TO TAKE POPS INTO THE LIKELY RANGE.
BUT THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF JET STREAK DOES PROVIDE SOME UPPER
SUPPORT...SO FELT COMPELLED TO LEAVE PRECIP IN THE HIGH CHANCE AREA.
IF HEATING OCCURS OVER THE EAST...ML CAPES COULD REACH UP TO AROUND
500 J/KG. BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ONLY AROUND 20 KTS...SO ANY
STORMS THAT POP UP SHOULD BE OF THE PULSE VARIETY...WITH LITTLE
CHANCES OF ANYTHING SEVERE. HIGHS WILL APPROACH 80 OVER EASTERN
WISCONSIN...BUT REMAIN IN THE MID 70S OVER THE NORTH WHERE RAIN
COULD OCCUR DURING THE MORNING.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
NEAR ZONAL FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK AND TO SOME DEGREE EVEN
INTO NEXT WEEKEND PROVIDES PCPN CHANCES NEARLY EVERY OTHER DAY OR
TWO WITH TIMING THESE FEATURES THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE. INITIAL
SHORT WAVE SLIDING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND NEAR
THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL DRAG A COOL FRONT EAST OF THE STATE LATER
MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL MODEL TIMING CONSENSUS DEPARTS ANY
CONVECTION TO THE EAST MONDAY EVENING...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE
A MENTION OVER PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN DUE TO THE RRQ
REGION OF THE UPPER JET PASSING OVER.
HIGH PRESS DRIFTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY PRIOR TO THE NEXT SUBTLE SHORT WAVE WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE AREA IS
PROGGED TO PASS OVER FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...A BIT SLOWER
PASSAGE PROBABLY DUE TO GRADUALLY BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS.
ECMWF ALSO DROPS A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS NEXT WEEKEND WHILE THE GFS SPLITS UP THE ENERGY A BIT IN
THE WESTERLY FLOW. NEVERTHELESS...PCPN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL NOT BE
TOO FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA. DUE NOTICE SOME OF THE STABILITY PROGS
SHOW MORE INSTABILITY FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH SATURDAY THE FOCUS
AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
MAIN AVIATION FORECAST ISSUE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG/LOW CLDS TO
REFORM AGAIN TNGT. TEMP/DWPT DIFFERENCES CLOSED UP VERY RAPIDLY
DURING THE EVENING. STILL PLAN TO HAVE AT LEAST SOME FG/ST FORM
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH HIGH/MIDDLE CLDS MAY HELP HOLD THINGS IN CHECK
SOMEWHAT. ONE AREA WERE THAT WON/T HELP IS NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN...WHERE VERY MOIST AIR FLOWING ACRS THE COLD LAKE WATERS
WL RESULT IN LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
223 AM MDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT MON JUN 15 2015
VERY ACTIVE WEATHERWISE IN THE SHORT TERM. FORECAST CHALLENGES
DEAL WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.
CURRENTLY...COLD FRONT PRETTY MUCH LOCATED WHERE
ADVERTISED...GENERALLY FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA...TO SIDNEY...ALONG
THE WYOMING/COLORADO STATELINE OUT TO NEAR RAWLINS THIS MORNING AT
1 AM. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING MCV FEATURE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE MOVING EAST AND JUST ABOUT TO CLEAR CHEYENNE COUNTY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWING THE SHORTWAVE THAT KICKED
OFF CONVECTION TO THE NORTH IS JUST ABOUT TO CLEAR THE
WYOMING/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER...WHICH SHOULD BRING CONVECTION TO AN
END FOR THE MOST PART UP THERE. NEXT SHORTWAVE TO IMPACT THE AREA
MOVING INTO IDAHO THIS MORNING WITH ANOTHER JUST MOVING ONSHORE
NEAR THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON BORDER.
FOR TODAY...ONCE THIS CONVECTION ENDS...DO EXPECT TO SEE STRATUS
DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE BEHIND THE FRONT. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE
SHOWING THE STRATUS PUSHING AS FAR WEST AS THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS
MORNING. IT MAY BE SLOW TO BREAK UP WITH EAST TO NORTHEAST UPSLOPE
WINDS CONTINUING. LATEST NAM CAPES FOR THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING
MOST UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN OUR WESTERN ZONES WITH MUCAPE AROUND
2000 J/KG ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. COULD BE DEALING
WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OUT THAT WAY TODAY.
BY TONIGHT...GUIDANCE SHOWING THE FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES. NAM...GFS AND ECMWF TARGETING HIGH QPF
FORECASTS OVER CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA COUNTIES. FORECAST STORM
MOTIONS BY DOUGLAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT UNDER 10KTS
AND PWATS OVER AN INCH. DECIDED TO HOIST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
CONVERSE/NIOBRARA COUNTIES FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.
GET A LITTLE BREAK IN THE ACTION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT BY
AFTERNOON...SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION. THE
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE CALIFORNIA/OREGON WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. NAM MUCAPES OVER 3500 J/KG IN THE PANHANDLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. LIFTED INDICES -7 TO -8C WITH 40-60KTS OF SHEAR OUT IN
THE PANHANDLE. DO BELIEVE ALL MODES OF SEVERE CONVECTIVE WEATHER
WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 AM MDT MON JUN 15 2015
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
THURSDAY...MOSTLY DRY AND QUITE WARM WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT PRODUCING ENOUGH CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
FRIDAY...FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS OUT WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALOFT MOVING
ACROSS...THOUGH WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...MINIMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY...MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES ACROSS AND WITH
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND CORRESPONDING
DECREASE IN WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WILL SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
SUNDAY...HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE WITH FLOW TURNING NORTHWEST AND WITH
DRIER LOW AND MID LEVELS...WILL SEE A DECREASE IN AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AREAL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING STORMS WEAKENING OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL AID IN UPSLOPING
STRATUS AND POSSIBLY FOG...ESPECIALLY OUT IN THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. USED LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE FOR TIMING OF IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS. STRATUS COULD PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING. WILL
TRY TO NAIL DOWN DISSIPATION TIME ON THE 12Z TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 125 AM MDT MON JUN 15 2015
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MINIMAL AS MOST AREAS IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE RECEIVE WETTING RAINS THROUGH TUESDAY. A
STALLED OUT COLD FRONT ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL BE THE
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR WIDESPREAD RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
WYZ101>103.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...GCC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1105 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015
WEAK FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE REGION WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS BEHIND IT. TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE SFC TROUGH FROM
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN COLORADO INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THESE STORMS
ARE NOT MAKING MUCH HEADWAY TO THE WEST AND ARE RATHER STATIONARY.
MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW AN UPTICK IN SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE ALONG AND
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AFTER 00Z. THE HRRR DOES SHOW SOME
STRONGER STORMS INITIATING OVER THE NORTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND
MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CONVERSE AND NORTHERN PLATTE COUNTIES FROM
00-03Z. LAPS ANALYSIS DOES SHOW 1500 J/KG OF CAPE UP THERE ALONG
WITH A BIT STRONGER FLOW ALOFT THAT YIELDS DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF
AROUND 30KTS. THE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT WOULD SUPPORT SMALL HAIL
OR EVEN A MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM THROUGH THE EVENING. THE TSTM
THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY NIGHT (A BIT LATER THAN NORMAL)
OVER MAINLY SOUTHEAST WY AS THE MODELS INDICATE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. GENERALLY HAVE 40-50 PERCENT POPS THROUGH 06Z. ALSO
ADDED PATCHY FOG ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE BY LATE TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH
THIS WILL DEPEND ON ANY ONGOING RAIN.
LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY TO THE EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE IN PLACE.
INSTABILITY IS WEAK OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS IN THE POST FRONTAL
AIR MASS. THE GFS SHOWS THE BEST INSTABILITY ALONG THE LARAMIE
RANGE WITH CAPE VALUES OF 1250-1500 J/KG. SPC HAS MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST WY IN A MARGINAL RISK AND THIS LOOKS GOOD. STORMS COULD
WAIT TO INITIATE UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE
SINCE THERE WILL BE A GOOD DEAL OF INHIBITION THROUGH THE DAY. A
SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH CENTRAL WY BY THE EVENING AND MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN WY DURING THE NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE STORMS
GOING...SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG... THROUGH SUNRISE ON TUESDAY
ESPECIALLY OVER CONVERSE/NIOBRARA COUNTIES. THE BEST SEVERE THREAT
IS STILL LOOKING LIKE TUESDAY AFTN OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS SOMEWHERE NEAR THE WY-NE BORDER BY THE AFTN
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS TO EAST OF THE DRYLINE. WITH DEWPOINTS OF
55-60F AND WARM SFC TEMPS...CAPE IS UP TO 2500 J/KG...AND BULK
SHEAR IS 45-50 KTS...A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONG SUPERCELLS AND
LARGE HAIL.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015
AN ACTIVE PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT STAYING INTACT OVER THE CWA. WHILE MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY
IN THE TIMING/PLACEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES...PERSISTENT LEE
TROUGHING AND PERIODIC LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION EACH AFTN/EVE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE EVENT APPEARS TO BE WED EVENING WITH EXCELLENT
CONVERGENCE AND EASTERLY UPSLOPE NEAR THE SFC. THE GFS SUGGESTS DEW
POINTS IN THE 50S ALONG/EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH SBCAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 1500-2500 J/KG. STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP BOOST 0-6
KM SHEAR VALUES TO 40+ KTS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...SO SEVERE
CONVECTION COULD VERY WELL BE A HAZARD. BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW
LONG IT TAKES TO ERODE THE CAP WITH WARM AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE
WEST. GENERALLY A TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONAL WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. FRIDAY COULD BE RATHER WARM
WITH GFS/ECM H7 TEMPS IN THE 16-18 DEG C RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA BENEATH FLAT RIDGING. LATEST MEX GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPPER 80S
INTO THE MID 90S FROM CYS TO SNY... BUT HARD TO SAY HOW MUCH
AFTERNOON CU WILL IMPACT HIGHS. CONTINUED TO TREND WARMER IN THIS
PATTERN. THINK WE WILL STILL HAVE AT LEAST A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AROUND ON THU/FRI...BUT STRONG CAPPING IS
LIKELY WITH SUCH WARM THERMAL PROFILES. KEPT THINGS ISOLATED FOR
THE TIME BEING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING STORMS WEAKENING OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL AID IN UPSLOPING
STRATUS AND POSSIBLY FOG...ESPECIALLY OUT IN THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. USED LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE FOR TIMING OF IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS. STRATUS COULD PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING. WILL
TRY TO NAIL DOWN DISSIPATION TIME ON THE 12Z TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AFTER A
COOLER DAY ON MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 20-30
PERCENT TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOONS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...ZF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
936 AM MDT MON JUN 15 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 917 AM MDT MON JUN 15 2015
OVERALL NO MAJOR UPDATES PLANNED FOR THE ONGOING FORECAST. STRATUS
HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COOL FRONT.
LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS GENERATE CAPES AROUND 1400 J/KG WITH T/TD OF
74/53. HRRR SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING INITIALLY DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE AFTER 18Z WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OFF THE FOOTHILLS FROM LARIMER COUNTY SOUTHWARD INTO
JEFFERSON COUNTY AFTER 21Z. BEST CHC OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR...THIS ALL IS
REFLECTED FAIRLY WELL IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. BEST DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
FOR THE DEVELOPING STORMS THIS AFTN WILL LIKELY OCCUR NORTH ALONG
THE CHEYENNE RIDGE AND SOUTH OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE...SO IF A
LANDSPOUT DOES FORM THESE MAY BE THE BEST AREAS. PW VALUES CLOSE
TO ONE INCH AGAIN WITH STORM MOTIONS FM THE WEST/NORTHWEST AROUND
10 MPH...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN ADDITION TO HAIL UP QUARTER
SIZE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT MON JUN 15 2015
THE WEAK COLD FRONT FROM LAST EVENING CAME THROUGH RATHER WIMPY AS
SURFACE WINDS HAVE BECOME VARIABLE UNDER 10KT OVERNIGHT. PER VAD
WINDS...THERE IS SOME SHALLOW UPSLOPE FLOW FROM THE NORTHEAST JUST
OFF THE DECK AND IS HELPING TO DEVELOP SOME HIGH STRATUS NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS IN THE 4 TO 5 THOUSAND FOOT LEVEL AGL. THERE WAS A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT HAVE DISSIPATED TRYING
TO COME OFF THE HILLS. OTHER AREA OF STRATUS ALSO DEVELOPING OVER
THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS WITH SOME PROGRESSION TOWARDS THE WEST.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP FOLLOWING LAST EVENINGS SURGES WITH
DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS ALL OF THE PLAINS.
INTEGRATED PW VALUES HAVE ALSO INCREASED TO NOW JUST OVER .80".
WILL NEED TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER THIS AM GIVEN
LATEST TRENDS FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY.
INCREASED MOISTURE VALUES WILL LEAD TO HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS PW VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND AN INCH
OVER THE FRONT RANGE. INITIAL LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS WILL DISSOLVE
BY MID AFTERNOON AND RESULTANT CAPE VALUES ANYWHERE FROM
1000-2000J/KG OVER FRONT RANGE AND PLAINS. SHEAR PROFILE IS
MARGINAL BUT WITH HIGH CAPES THERE IS A SEVERE THREAT FOR HAIL UP
TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH STORMS.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHTLY OUT OF THE WEST WHILE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A FEW POSSIBLE RIPPLES IN THE FLOW
ACROSS UTAH AND NEVADA. WITH ONLY WEAK QG ASCENT WON`T EXPECT
STORMS TO LAST MUCH PAST MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT MON JUN 15 2015
INCREASINGLY DRY UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WILL DOMINATE TUESDAY OVER
NE COLORADO. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL ALLOW MORE TERRAIN DRIVEN
CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT CAN`T RULE OUT SOME DEVELOPMENT
ALONG A LINE NORTH OF THE PALMER DIVIDE SW OF DENVER WITH THE HELP
OF A POSSIBLE DENVER CYCLONE SET UP. NAM IS HINTING MORE AT IT
WITH THE 00Z. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL BUT WE SHOULD WARM UP INTO
THE UPPER 80S. EVEN WITH THE LACK OF DECENT SHEAR THE CYCLONE
COULD HELP TO SPIN OFF A FEW STORMS THAT COULD RESULT IN BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN...WINDS AND HAIL.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY UNIFORM WESTERLY FLOW MOVES IN WITH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY. BOTH EC AND GFS SHOW POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAIN AND HIGH WINDS INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL BUT WITH DECENT SHEAR CONDITIONS COULD
PRODUCE STRONG STORMS BY WEDNESDAY EVE.
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE WEEKEND WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN USHERING IN MORE SUMMER LIKE
CONDITIONS. MOISTURE DECREASES GREATLY OVER THE REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL START TO BREAKDOWN BY FRIDAY
EVENING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON
DROPPING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 917 AM MDT MON JUN 15 2015
STRATUS STILL AROUND THIS MORNING WITH ILS/MVFR CIGS RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH 17Z. AS THE AIRMASS WARMS THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT HIGHER
CHANCES OF STORMS GIVEN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY. LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS WILL DISSOLVE AROUND 21Z
RESULTING IN A WINDOW OF STORMS BETWEEN 21-02Z OVER TERMINALS...
THE CAP MAY DISSOLVE SOONER...BY 18Z...SOUTH OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE. COULD SEE ILS APPROACHES RETURN WITH PASSING STORMS THIS
AFTN AND EARLY EVNG.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT MON JUN 15 2015
BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS TODAY OVER THE FRONT RANGE WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PW VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND AN
INCH THIS AFTERNOON SO HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED WITH STORMS. COULD SEE
INCREASE OF STREAM/RIVER LEVELS IN PROXIMITY TO STRONG STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WOULD EXPECT FOCUS OF STORMS WITH HEAVIEST
RAIN IN THE FOOTHILLS...PALMER DIVIDE AND PARK COUNTY GIVEN EAST
TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW THIS AFTERNOON.
NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FLOOD WARNINGS ALONG THE S PLATTE...CACHE LA
POUDRE RIVERS BUT THE WARNING ALONG S PLATTE IN JEFFERSON COUNTY
LOOKS TO GO BELOW FLOOD WARNING STAGE SOMETIME EARLY THIS MORNING.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...COOPER
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...COOPER
HYDROLOGY...BOWEN/ENTREKIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1043 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG
IT...PASSING SOUTH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE EXITING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE.
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS BEFORE DAYBREAK
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. AND WITH NO LIGHTNING ACTIVITY
HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THIS MORNING ONLY.
CHALLENGING TEMP FORECAST TODAY AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES WESTERN
ZONES AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG IT. BY LATE DAY...THIS
LOW TRACKS TOWARD NJ WITH FRONT JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.
ALOFT...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THE WESTERLIES. WAA AND PLENTY OF LIFT MOVES EAST...AS DOES
HIGH COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS. POPS QUICKLY LOWER AS MESOSCALE
MODELS ALONG WITH NWP MODELS INDICATE LOWER COVERAGE AFTER 13Z.
LATEST HRRR SEEMS QUITE REASONABLE.
ANY SHOWERS COULD BE HEAVY AS PW CONTENT REMAINS QUITE
HIGH...AROUND 2 INCHES.
ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TOWARD WESTERN LOCALES WHERE GREATEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE REALIZED DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONGER
TSTMS MAY DEVELOP LATE DAY. HOWEVER...IF FRONT LOCATION IS SLIGHTLY
WEST OF FORECAST...INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH DUE TO
MORE OF AN EASTERLY FLOW...MARINE INFLUENCE.
LARGE MAX TEMP SPREAD TODAY WITH EASTERLY FLOW KEEPING SE CT AND LI
MUCH COOLER THAN NE NJ. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S SE CT AND
ERN LI...TO THE MIDDLE 80S ACROSS NE NJ. FOLLOWED A MOS BLEND WITH
AN ATTEMPT TO MATCH SREF MEANS.
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR OCEAN BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
FORECAST AREA REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES.
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL BE TOUGH TO TIME AS THEY TRACK OVER THE
RIDGE.
SFC LOW LOOKS TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...WITH NEXT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NW TUESDAY. ECMWF LOOKS TO BE A GOOD
COMPROMISE BETWEEN FASTER GFS AND SLOWER NAM.
ANY EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL LIKELY PASS EAST OR WEAKEN WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA...AND
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THEN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT TUESDAY. AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY REMAINS IN QUESTION...BUT
WINDS ALOFT COULD SUPPORT SOME STRONGER STORMS.
MOS BLEND FOR TEMPS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A BLEND WILL PROVIDE BEST
GUESS AVERAGE WHERE DISPARITIES ARE NOTED IN THE MOS...ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALOFT...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY JET STREAM STAYS JUST NORTH OF
THE REGION FOR REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE MID LEVELS...THE
PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM A LOOSE HEIGHT GRADIENT WITH THE LOCAL AREA
BEING ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A LONGWAVE RIDGE TO A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
THAT EXHIBITS A TIGHTER HEIGHT GRADIENT. THE RIDGE WILL BE MORE FLAT
AND SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTHERN U.S. WITH ONE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH
HAVING PASSED TO THE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...A LESS
AMPLIFIED ONE WILL BE MOVING IN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
WITH A STRONGER ONE PASSING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
AT THE SURFACE...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE HIGH CENTER MOVES RIGHT
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY. IT WILL THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST OF
NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...MOVING ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
IN TERMS OF WEATHER...DRYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH A DRY DAY TO FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...THE
PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY FROM VALUES NEAR 2
INCHES TO VALUES APPROXIMATELY BETWEEN 0.6 AND 1 INCH...CONVEYING A
MUCH LESS HUMID AIRMASS. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT HOWEVER. THIS
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT FOLLOWED BY
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY LIMITED WITH
GENERALLY COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS SO NO THUNDERSTORMS WERE
MENTIONED WITH THE FORECAST BUT THE PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST DO
INCREASE TO NEAR 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES. DRY AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
THEREAFTER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM AS HUMIDITY LEVELS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A VERY CHALLENGING AVIATION WEATHER DAY IN THE NY METRO AND
VICINITY.
LOW PRESSURE ALONG A WARM FRONT WILL TRACK DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN TURN EAST TRACKING SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MARGINAL TO VFR FOR THE NY METRO AND HUDSON
VALLEY BY EARLY AFTN. IFR HOLDS ON FOR LONG ISLAND AND CT TODAY.
CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVER NJ THIS AFTERNOON THAT SPREADS INTO THE
NY METRO. TOO EARLY FOR SPECIFIC...SO USED VCTS.
LARGE UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES AROUND WIND DIRECTION FCST FOR THE NY
METRO THIS AFTN. TIMING OF SHIFT TO NE COULD BE OFF SEVERAL
HOURS. BUT DO EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT SWITCH TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE
NY METRO SOME TIME LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
IFR TO PERHAPS LIFR OVERNIGHT.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH FCST IN TERMS OF
TIMING. WIND SHIFT TO NE EXPECTED SOMETIME DURING LATE AFTN
DEPARTURE BANK.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH FCST IN TERMS OF
TIMING. WIND SHIFT TO NE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTN...BUT COULD BE
AS EARLY AS 18Z.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH FCST IN TERMS OF
TIMING. WIND DIRECTION THIS AFTN COULD STAY MORE SOUTHERLY...OR EVEN
SOUTHEAST.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH FCST IN TERMS OF
TIMING.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH FCST IN TERMS OF
TIMING.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF THE ONSET OF IFR.
COULD BE LATER THAN FCST.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUE-TUE NGT...IFR TO LOCALLY LIFR IN THE EARLY MORNING...BECOMING
VFR. MVFR IN AFTN SHRA/TSRA.
.WED...VFR.
.THU-FRI...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
UPDATED WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS FOR THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE FORECAST WIND AND SEAS REMAIN UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME.
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS FROM THE WEST TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURES RIDES ALONG IT. SE WINDS WILL INCREASE...MAINLY ACROSS
EASTERN WATERS...AND SPEEDS MAY APPROACH 25 KTS OVER THE EASTERN
OCEAN WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET FOR A TIME TODAY. WAVE WATCH
III BUILDS SEAS TO 5 FEET ACROSS THESE WATERS. AFTER COLLAB WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL ISSUE SCA FOR TODAY AND THROUGH THE
EVENING FOR THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS.
OTHERWISE...THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSES ACROSS THE OCEAN
ZONES TONIGHT...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY. SUB SCA
EXPECTED.
WITH GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS IN PLACE...CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO STAY BELOW SCA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED COVERAGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. EXPECT ANY FLASH
OR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WILL BE ISOLATED.
ANY HEAVIER SHOWER OR TSTM COULD PRODUCE A QUICK HALF INCH...BUT
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT QPF IS NOT ANTICIPATED FROM LATE THIS
MORNING ON.
WITH EACH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ESPECIALLY ANY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST...PRECIPITABLE WATERS COINCIDING WITH THESE ARE FORECAST TO
BE AT LEAST 1.5 INCHES. THEREFORE...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES WITH ANY OF THIS CONVECTION. ANY CONVECTION SUSTAINED...WOULD
LEAD TO URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ350.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JMC/TONGUE
MARINE...JM/PW
HYDROLOGY...JM/PW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
937 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG
IT...PASSING SOUTH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE EXITING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE.
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS BEFORE DAYBREAK
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. AND WITH NO LIGHTNING ACTIVITY
HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THIS MORNING ONLY.
CHALLENGING TEMP FORECAST TODAY AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES WESTERN
ZONES AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG IT. BY LATE DAY...THIS
LOW TRACKS TOWARD NJ WITH FRONT JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.
ALOFT...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THE WESTERLIES. WAA AND PLENTY OF LIFT MOVES EAST...AS DOES
HIGH COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS. POPS QUICKLY LOWER AS MESOSCALE
MODELS ALONG WITH NWP MODELS INDICATE LOWER COVERAGE AFTER 13Z.
LATEST HRRR SEEMS QUITE REASONABLE.
ANY SHOWERS COULD BE HEAVY AS PW CONTENT REMAINS QUITE
HIGH...AROUND 2 INCHES.
ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TOWARD WESTERN LOCALES WHERE GREATEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE REALIZED DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONGER
TSTMS MAY DEVELOP LATE DAY. HOWEVER...IF FRONT LOCATION IS SLIGHTLY
WEST OF FORECAST...INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH DUE TO
MORE OF AN EASTERLY FLOW...MARINE INFLUENCE.
LARGE MAX TEMP SPREAD TODAY WITH EASTERLY FLOW KEEPING SE CT AND LI
MUCH COOLER THAN NE NJ. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S SE CT AND
ERN LI...TO THE MIDDLE 80S ACROSS NE NJ. FOLLOWED A MOS BLEND WITH
AN ATTEMPT TO MATCH SREF MEANS.
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR OCEAN BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
FORECAST AREA REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES.
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL BE TOUGH TO TIME AS THEY TRACK OVER THE
RIDGE.
SFC LOW LOOKS TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...WITH NEXT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NW TUESDAY. ECMWF LOOKS TO BE A GOOD
COMPROMISE BETWEEN FASTER GFS AND SLOWER NAM.
ANY EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL LIKELY PASS EAST OR WEAKEN WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA...AND
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THEN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT TUESDAY. AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY REMAINS IN QUESTION...BUT
WINDS ALOFT COULD SUPPORT SOME STRONGER STORMS.
MOS BLEND FOR TEMPS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A BLEND WILL PROVIDE BEST
GUESS AVERAGE WHERE DISPARITIES ARE NOTED IN THE MOS...ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALOFT...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY JET STREAM STAYS JUST NORTH OF
THE REGION FOR REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE MID LEVELS...THE
PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM A LOOSE HEIGHT GRADIENT WITH THE LOCAL AREA
BEING ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A LONGWAVE RIDGE TO A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
THAT EXHIBITS A TIGHTER HEIGHT GRADIENT. THE RIDGE WILL BE MORE FLAT
AND SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTHERN U.S. WITH ONE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH
HAVING PASSED TO THE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...A LESS
AMPLIFIED ONE WILL BE MOVING IN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
WITH A STRONGER ONE PASSING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
AT THE SURFACE...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE HIGH CENTER MOVES RIGHT
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY. IT WILL THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST OF
NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...MOVING ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
IN TERMS OF WEATHER...DRYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH A DRY DAY TO FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...THE
PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY FROM VALUES NEAR 2
INCHES TO VALUES APPROXIMATELY BETWEEN 0.6 AND 1 INCH...CONVEYING A
MUCH LESS HUMID AIRMASS. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT HOWEVER. THIS
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT FOLLOWED BY
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY LIMITED WITH
GENERALLY COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS SO NO THUNDERSTORMS WERE
MENTIONED WITH THE FORECAST BUT THE PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST DO
INCREASE TO NEAR 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES. DRY AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
THEREAFTER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM AS HUMIDITY LEVELS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A VERY CHALLENGING AVIATION WEATHER DAY IN THE NY METRO AND
VICINITY.
LOW PRESSURE ALONG A WARM FRONT WILL TRACK DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN TURN EAST TRACKING SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
TONIGHT.
THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE MOVING EAST OVER EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND CT. GENERALLY
IFR TO START...CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MARGINAL TO VFR FOR THE NY
METRO AND HUDSON VALLEY BY LATE MORNING. IFR HOLDS ON FOR LONG
ISLAND AND CT.
CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVER NJ THIS AFTERNOON THAT SPREADS INTO THE
NY METRO. TOO EARLY FOR SPECIFIC...SO USED VCTS.
LARGE UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES AROUND WIND DIRECTION FCST FOR THE NY
METRO THIS AFTN. TIMING OF SHIFT TO NE COULD BE OFF SEVERAL
HOURS. BUT DO EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT SWITCH TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE
NY METRO SOME TIME LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
IFR TO PERHAPS LIFR OVERNIGHT.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH FCST IN TERMS OF
TIMING. WIND SHIFT TO NE EXPECTED SOMETIME DURING LATE AFTN
DEPARTURE BANK.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH FCST IN TERMS OF
TIMING. WIND SHIFT TO NE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTN...BUT COULD BE
AS EARLY AS 18Z.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH FCST IN TERMS OF
TIMING. WIND DIRECTION THIS AFTN COULD STAY MORE SOUTHERLY...OR EVEN
SOUTHEAST.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH FCST IN TERMS OF
TIMING.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH FCST IN TERMS OF
TIMING.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF THE ONSET OF IFR.
COULD BE LATER THAN FCST.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUE-TUE NGT...IFR TO LOCALLY LIFR IN THE EARLY MORNING...BECOMING
VFR. MVFR IN AFTN SHRA/TSRA.
.WED...VFR.
.THU-FRI...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
UPDATED WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS FOR THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE FORECAST WIND AND SEAS REMAIN UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME.
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS FROM THE WEST TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURES RIDES ALONG IT. SE WINDS WILL INCREASE...MAINLY ACROSS
EASTERN WATERS...AND SPEEDS MAY APPROACH 25 KTS OVER THE EASTERN
OCEAN WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET FOR A TIME TODAY. WAVE WATCH
III BUILDS SEAS TO 5 FEET ACROSS THESE WATERS. AFTER COLLAB WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL ISSUE SCA FOR TODAY AND THROUGH THE
EVENING FOR THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS.
OTHERWISE...THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSES ACROSS THE OCEAN
ZONES TONIGHT...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY. SUB SCA
EXPECTED.
WITH GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS IN PLACE...CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO STAY BELOW SCA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED COVERAGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. EXPECT ANY FLASH
OR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WILL BE ISOLATED.
ANY HEAVIER SHOWER OR TSTM COULD PRODUCE A QUICK HALF INCH...BUT
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT QPF IS NOT ANTICIPATED FROM LATE THIS
MORNING ON.
WITH EACH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ESPECIALLY ANY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST...PRECIPITABLE WATERS COINCIDING WITH THESE ARE FORECAST TO
BE AT LEAST 1.5 INCHES. THEREFORE...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES WITH ANY OF THIS CONVECTION. ANY CONVECTION SUSTAINED...WOULD
LEAD TO URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ350.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
747 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG
IT...PASSING SOUTH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE EXITING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE.
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS BEFORE DAYBREAK
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO BETTER MATCH RADAR REFLECTIVITY TRENDS
AS MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS MOVE EAST ACROSS EASTERN LONG
ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT. POPS TREND FROM CHANCE FOR WESTERN AREAS
TO CATEGORICAL FOR MOST EASTERN AREAS.
CHALLENGING TEMP FORECAST TODAY AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES WESTERN
ZONES AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG IT. BY LATE DAY...THIS
LOW TRACKS TOWARD NJ WITH FRONT JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.
ALOFT...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THE WESTERLIES. WAA AND PLENTY OF LIFT MOVES EAST...AS DOES
HIGH COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS. POPS QUICKLY LOWER AS MESOSCALE
MODELS ALONG WITH NWP MODELS INDICATE LOWER COVERAGE AFTER 13Z.
LATEST HRRR SEEMS QUITE REASONABLE.
ANY SHOWERS COULD BE HEAVY AS PW CONTENT REMAINS QUITE
HIGH...AROUND 2 INCHES.
ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TOWARD WESTERN LOCALES WHERE GREATEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE REALIZED DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONGER
TSTMS MAY DEVELOP LATE DAY. HOWEVER...IF FRONT LOCATION IS SLIGHTLY
WEST OF FORECAST...INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH DUE TO
MORE OF AN EASTERLY FLOW...MARINE INFLUENCE.
LARGE MAX TEMP SPREAD TODAY WITH EASTERLY FLOW KEEPING SE CT AND LI
MUCH COOLER THAN NE NJ. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S SE CT AND
ERN LI...TO THE MIDDLE 80S ACROSS NE NJ. FOLLOWED A MOS BLEND WITH
AN ATTEMPT TO MATCH SREF MEANS.
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR OCEAN BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
FORECAST AREA REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES.
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL BE TOUGH TO TIME AS THEY TRACK OVER THE
RIDGE.
SFC LOW LOOKS TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...WITH NEXT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NW TUESDAY. ECMWF LOOKS TO BE A GOOD
COMPROMISE BETWEEN FASTER GFS AND SLOWER NAM.
ANY EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL LIKELY PASS EAST OR WEAKEN WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA...AND
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THEN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT TUESDAY. AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY REMAINS IN QUESTION...BUT
WINDS ALOFT COULD SUPPORT SOME STRONGER STORMS.
MOS BLEND FOR TEMPS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A BLEND WILL PROVIDE BEST
GUESS AVERAGE WHERE DISPARITIES ARE NOTED IN THE MOS...ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALOFT...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY JET STREAM STAYS JUST NORTH OF
THE REGION FOR REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE MID LEVELS...THE
PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM A LOOSE HEIGHT GRADIENT WITH THE LOCAL AREA
BEING ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A LONGWAVE RIDGE TO A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
THAT EXHIBITS A TIGHTER HEIGHT GRADIENT. THE RIDGE WILL BE MORE FLAT
AND SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTHERN U.S. WITH ONE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH
HAVING PASSED TO THE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...A LESS
AMPLIFIED ONE WILL BE MOVING IN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
WITH A STRONGER ONE PASSING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
AT THE SURFACE...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE HIGH CENTER MOVES RIGHT
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY. IT WILL THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST OF
NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...MOVING ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
IN TERMS OF WEATHER...DRYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH A DRY DAY TO FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...THE
PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY FROM VALUES NEAR 2
INCHES TO VALUES APPROXIMATELY BETWEEN 0.6 AND 1 INCH...CONVEYING A
MUCH LESS HUMID AIRMASS. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT HOWEVER. THIS
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT FOLLOWED BY
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY LIMITED WITH
GENERALLY COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS SO NO THUNDERSTORMS WERE
MENTIONED WITH THE FORECAST BUT THE PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST DO
INCREASE TO NEAR 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES. DRY AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
THEREAFTER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM AS HUMIDITY LEVELS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A VERY CHALLENGING AVIATION WEATHER DAY IN THE NY METRO AND
VICINITY.
LOW PRESSURE ALONG A WARM FRONT WILL TRACK DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN TURN EAST TRACKING SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
TONIGHT.
THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE MOVING EAST OVER EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND CT. GENERALLY
IFR TO START...CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MARGINAL TO VFR FOR THE NY
METRO AND HUDSON VALLEY BY LATE MORNING. IFR HOLDS ON FOR LONG
ISLAND AND CT.
CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVER NJ THIS AFTERNOON THAT SPREADS INTO THE
NY METRO. TOO EARLY FOR SPECIFIC...SO USED VCTS.
LARGE UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES AROUND WIND DIRECTION FCST FOR THE NY
METRO THIS AFTN. TIMING OF SHIFT TO NE COULD BE OFF SEVERAL
HOURS. BUT DO EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT SWITCH TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE
NY METRO SOME TIME LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
IFR TO PERHAPS LIFR OVERNIGHT.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH FCST IN TERMS OF
TIMING. WIND SHIFT TO NE EXPECTED SOMETIME DURING LATE AFTN
DEPARTURE BANK.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH FCST IN TERMS OF
TIMING. WIND SHIFT TO NE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTN...BUT COULD BE
AS EARLY AS 18Z.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH FCST IN TERMS OF
TIMING. WIND DIRECTION THIS AFTN COULD STAY MORE SOUTHERLY...OR EVEN
SOUTHEAST.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH FCST IN TERMS OF
TIMING.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH FCST IN TERMS OF
TIMING.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF THE ONSET OF IFR.
COULD BE LATER THAN FCST.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUE-TUE NGT...IFR TO LOCALLY LIFR IN THE EARLY MORNING...BECOMING
VFR. MVFR IN AFTN SHRA/TSRA.
.WED...VFR.
.THU-FRI...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS FROM THE WEST TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURES RIDES ALONG IT. SE WINDS WILL INCREASE...MAINLY ACROSS
EASTERN WATERS...AND SPEEDS MAY APPROACH 25 KTS OVER THE EASTERN
OCEAN WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET FOR A TIME TODAY. WAVE WATCH
III BUILDS SEAS TO 5 FEET ACROSS THESE WATERS. AFTER COLLAB WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL ISSUE SCA FOR TODAY AND THROUGH THE
EVENING FOR THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS.
OTHERWISE...THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSES ACROSS THE OCEAN
ZONES TONIGHT...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY. SUB SCA
EXPECTED.
WITH GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS IN PLACE...CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO STAY BELOW SCA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ONCE THIS INITIAL AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDERSTORMS MOVES
EAST...EXPECT SCATTERED COVERAGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
FEEL ANY FLASH OR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WILL BE
ISOLATED.
ANY HEAVIER SHOWER OR TSTM COULD PRODUCE A QUICK HALF INCH...BUT
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT QPF IS NOT ANTICIPATED FROM LATE THIS
MORNING ON.
WITH EACH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ESPECIALLY ANY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST...PRECIPITABLE WATERS COINCIDING WITH THESE ARE FORECAST TO
BE AT LEAST 1.5 INCHES. THEREFORE...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES WITH ANY OF THIS CONVECTION. ANY CONVECTION SUSTAINED...WOULD
LEAD TO URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ350.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/PW
NEAR TERM...PW/JM
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...TONGUE
MARINE...JM/PW
HYDROLOGY...JM/PW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
623 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG
IT...PASSING SOUTH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE EXITING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE.
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS BEFORE DAYBREAK
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CHALLENGING TEMP FORECAST TODAY AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES WESTERN
ZONES AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG IT. BY LATE DAY...THIS
LOW TRACKS TOWARD NJ WITH FRONT JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.
ALOFT...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THE WESTERLIES. WAA AND PLENTY OF LIFT MOVES EAST...AS DOES
HIGH COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS. POPS QUICKLY LOWER AS MESOSCALE
MODELS ALONG WITH NWP MODELS INDICATE LOWER COVERAGE AFTER 13Z.
LATEST HRRR SEEMS QUITE REASONABLE.
ANY SHOWERS COULD BE HEAVY AS PW CONTENT REMAINS QUITE
HIGH...AROUND 2 INCHES.
ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TOWARD WESTERN LOCALES WHERE GREATEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE REALIZED DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONGER
TSTMS MAY DEVELOP LATE DAY. HOWEVER...IF FRONT LOCATION IS SLIGHTLY
WEST OF FORECAST...INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH DUE TO
MORE OF AN EASTERLY FLOW...MARINE INFLUENCE.
LARGE MAX TEMP SPREAD TODAY WITH EASTERLY FLOW KEEPING SE CT AND LI
MUCH COOLER THAN NE NJ. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S SE CT AND
ERN LI...TO THE MIDDLE 80S ACROSS NE NJ. FOLLOWED A MOS BLEND WITH
AN ATTEMPT TO MATCH SREF MEANS.
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR OCEAN BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
FORECAST AREA REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES.
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL BE TOUGH TO TIME AS THEY TRACK OVER THE
RIDGE.
SFC LOW LOOKS TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...WITH NEXT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NW TUESDAY. ECMWF LOOKS TO BE A GOOD
COMPROMISE BETWEEN FASTER GFS AND SLOWER NAM.
ANY EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL LIKELY PASS EAST OR WEAKEN WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA...AND
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THEN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT TUESDAY. AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY REMAINS IN QUESTION...BUT
WINDS ALOFT COULD SUPPORT SOME STRONGER STORMS.
MOS BLEND FOR TEMPS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A BLEND WILL PROVIDE BEST
GUESS AVERAGE WHERE DISPARITIES ARE NOTED IN THE MOS...ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALOFT...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY JET STREAM STAYS JUST NORTH OF
THE REGION FOR REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE MID LEVELS...THE
PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM A LOOSE HEIGHT GRADIENT WITH THE LOCAL AREA
BEING ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A LONGWAVE RIDGE TO A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
THAT EXHIBITS A TIGHTER HEIGHT GRADIENT. THE RIDGE WILL BE MORE FLAT
AND SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTHERN U.S. WITH ONE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH
HAVING PASSED TO THE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...A LESS
AMPLIFIED ONE WILL BE MOVING IN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
WITH A STRONGER ONE PASSING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
AT THE SURFACE...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE HIGH CENTER MOVES RIGHT
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY. IT WILL THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST OF
NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...MOVING ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
IN TERMS OF WEATHER...DRYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH A DRY DAY TO FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...THE
PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY FROM VALUES NEAR 2
INCHES TO VALUES APPROXIMATELY BETWEEN 0.6 AND 1 INCH...CONVEYING A
MUCH LESS HUMID AIRMASS. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT HOWEVER. THIS
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT FOLLOWED BY
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY LIMITED WITH
GENERALLY COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS SO NO THUNDERSTORMS WERE
MENTIONED WITH THE FORECAST BUT THE PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST DO
INCREASE TO NEAR 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES. DRY AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
THEREAFTER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM AS HUMIDITY LEVELS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A VERY CHALLENGING AVIATION WEATHER DAY IN THE NY METRO AND
VICINITY.
LOW PRESSURE ALONG A WARM FRONT WILL TRACK DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN TURN EAST TRACKING SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
TONIGHT.
THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM ARE
MOVING EAST OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. IN IT`S
WAKE...EXPECT IFR CIGS FOR MOST OF THE REGION. CONDITIONS IMPROVE
TO MARGINAL OR PERHAPS VFR FOR THE NY METRO AND HUDSON VALLEY BY
LATE MORNING. IFR HOLDS ON FOR LONG ISLAND AND CT.
CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVER NJ THIS AFTERNOON. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON
THE COVERAGE.
LARGE UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES AROUND WIND DIRECTION FCST FOR THE NY
METRO THIS AFTN. TIMING OF SHIFT TO NE COULD BE OFF SEVERAL
HOURS...BUT CERTAINLY DO EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT SWITCH TO THE
NORTHEAST IN THE NY METRO SOME TIME LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
IFR TO PERHAPS LIFR OVERNIGHT.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH FCST IN TERMS OF
TIMING. WIND SHIFT TO NE EXPECTED SOMETIME DURING LATE AFTN
DEPARTURE BANK.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH FCST IN TERMS OF
TIMING. WIND SHIFT TO NE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTN...BUT COULD BE
AS EARLY AS 18Z.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH FCST IN TERMS OF
TIMING. WIND DIRECTION THIS AFTN COULD STAY MORE SOUTHERLY.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH FCST IN TERMS OF
TIMING.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH FCST IN TERMS OF
TIMING.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF THE ONSET OF IFR.
COULD BE LATER THAN FCST.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUE-TUE NGT...IFR TO LOCALLY LIFR IN THE MORNING...BECOMING VFR.
MVFR IN POSSIBLE AFTN SHRA/TSRA.
.WED...VFR.
.THU-FRI...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS FROM THE WEST TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURES RIDES ALONG IT. SE WINDS WILL INCREASE...MAINLY ACROSS
EASTERN WATERS...AND SPEEDS MAY APPROACH 25 KTS OVER THE EASTERN
OCEAN WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET FOR A TIME TODAY. WAVE WATCH
III BUILDS SEAS TO 5 FEET ACROSS THESE WATERS. AFTER COLLAB WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL ISSUE SCA FOR TODAY AND THROUGH THE
EVENING FOR THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS.
OTHERWISE...THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSES ACROSS THE OCEAN
ZONES TONIGHT...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY. SUB SCA
EXPECTED.
WITH GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS IN PLACE...CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO STAY BELOW SCA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ONCE THIS INITIAL AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDERSTORMS MOVES
EAST...EXPECT SCATTERED COVERAGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
FEEL ANY FLASH OR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WILL BE
ISOLATED.
ANY HEAVIER SHOWER OR TSTM COULD PRODUCE A QUICK HALF INCH...BUT
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT QPF IS NOT ANTICIPATED FROM LATE THIS
MORNING ON.
WITH EACH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ESPECIALLY ANY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST...PRECIPITABLE WATERS COINCIDING WITH THESE ARE FORECAST TO
BE AT LEAST 1.5 INCHES. THEREFORE...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES WITH ANY OF THIS CONVECTION. ANY CONVECTION SUSTAINED...WOULD
LEAD TO URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ350.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...TONGUE
MARINE...JM/PW
HYDROLOGY...JM/PW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1149 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE
AND A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS. THIS RAIN WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT WITH
A BRIEF BREAK EXPECTED ON TUESDAY BEFORE MORE RAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1139 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY/TNGT WITH
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS INDICATING PWAT APCHG 2" AND UPWIND
PROPAGATION VECTOR ONLY 5-10KT ACROSS OUR AREA. A SLOW MOVG CDFNT
WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA TNGT. WIDESPREAD TSTMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTN AND
CONT AT LEAST INTO THIS EVE AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
PORTIONS OF THE CWA ALREADY HAVE SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS AND
HIGH RIVER/STREAM FLOWS... BUT EVEN AREAS WHICH HAVEN`T RECEIVED
THAT MUCH RAIN RECENTLY COULD BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING
THIS AFTN/EVE DUE TO EXPECTED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES FOR UP TO
A FEW HOURS. THUS HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA FOR THIS AFTN/EVE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
MIDLEVEL VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE DRAWN
ENE TODAY BY DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY LOW. GIVEN
TROPICAL AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE COURTESY OF INTRACTABLE SOUTHEAST
CONUS RIDGE...THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR YET ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONVECTION SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
TODAY DUE TO LEVEL OF SYNOPTIC SUPPORT AND RICH THETA-E ENVIRONMENT.
HAVE THEREFORE KEPT HIGH END LIKELY POPS. ONLY QUESTION IS EXACT
TIMING/EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES.
SUBTLE MIDLEVEL PERTURBATIONS RIPPLING THROUGH THE AREA IN A VERY
MOIST (SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN LOWER 70S) AND UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT WILL
LIKELY ALLOW CONVECTION TO BLOSSOM BY LATE MORNING...EVEN MORE SO
THAN CURRENTLY BEING SEEN. EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO THEN CHURN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR A SECONDARY UPTICK IN
COVERAGE DURING THE EVENING WITH MAIN FRONTAL PASSAGE. IF EARLY
INITIATION IS TRUE (AS EXPECTED)...THIS WILL PUT A DAMPER ON SEVERE
WEATHER CHANCES. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE A PATHETIC 5 G/KG WITH A
COMPLETELY MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ANY
APPRECIABLE LEVELS OF INSTABILITY WILL DEPEND ON SUSTAINED SURFACE
DIABATIC HEATING...A TALL ORDER GIVEN EXPECTED EARLY ONSET OF
CONVECTION AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. NEVERTHELESS...WOULDNT TOTALLY
LET GUARD DOWN BECAUSE THE WIND/SHEAR PROFILES ARE BETTER THAN
YESTERDAY THANKS TO APPROACHING TROUGH. 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES WILL BE
AROUND 30-35 KTS WITH 0-3KM VALUES 20-30 KTS BY THE EVENING. THIS
COULD SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS/LINES IF INSTABILITY
ENDS UP HIGHER THAN EXPECTED. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WOULD BE
THE PRIMARY CONCERN.
SET UP WITH RESPECT TO HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL REMAINS THE SAME AS IT
HAS BEEN FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. PW VALUES REMAIN AROUND 2
INCHES...SOLIDLY IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DEEP
WARM CLOUD LAYER WILL ALSO FAVOR EFFICIENT COLLISION/COALESCENSE
PROCESSES AND MBE VELOCITIES REMAIN LOW...FAVORING POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING/BACKBUILDING OF STORMS. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
IF/WHERE SUSTAINED CONVECTION SETS UP...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. BIGGEST
THREAT FOR FLOODING WILL PROBABLY BE IN THE EVENING WHEN MAIN FRONT
APPROACHES.
CONVECTION CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY WIND DOWN FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA...THOUGH PROBABLY WONT FULLY CLEAR OUR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES BEFORE 12Z.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
CONTD SIMILAR FCST WITH CONSISTENCY IN TACT IN ATTEMPT TO BETTER
DELINEATE CONVECTIVE OPPORTUNITIES AMID WELL BROADBRUSHED MULTI
MODEL BLEND. IN WAKE OF ANTICIPATED DY1 CONVECTION OVERTURNING ATMOS
AND SUBSEQUENT SFC BNDRY PUSH TOWARDS OHIO RIVER VALLEY HAVE MUTED
CHCS TUE/TUE NIGHT...RELEGATING LOW CHC POPS TO SRN CWA WITH NOTABLY
STRONG N/S LLVL THETA-E GRADIENT. NEXT STRONG MID TROP CIRCULATION
/PRESENTLY OFF NRN CAL COAST/ TO EJECT EWD INTO CENTRAL/HIGH PLAINS
TUE EVE AND WRN GRTLKS BY MIDDAY WED. INFLUX OF AT LEAST MID/ULVL
MSTR STREAMING FROM ANTICIPATED TROPICAL CYCLONE REMNANTS ALONG WITH
LEAD SHORTWAVE EJECTION SLATED FOR MIDWEEK. WITH SRN GRTLKS POISED
ON NRN PERIPHERY OF INCRSGLY RAPID DEEP LAYER SWRLY FLOW AS DAY
PROGRESSES...PRECIP EFFICIENCIES WILL BE ENHANCED FOR ADDNL HEAVY
RAFL POTNL...WELL COVERED IN ESF/HWO. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO RAMP
CONSIDERABLY...EXPECTED CAPE PROFILES TO BE RATHER TALL/THIN OWING
TO EXTRM MOISTURE AND NOT PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE FOR STRONG/
SEVERE...THOUGH MESOSCALE DETAILS YET TO BEAR OUT. FINAL LIFTOUT OF
LAGGED EXTRATROPICAL VORTEX INTO MID MS VLY FRI AFTN...LENDING CONTD
CONVECTIVE CHCS INTO WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR INZ003>009-012>018-
020-022>027-032>034.
MI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MIZ077>081.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JT
SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...AGD
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1101 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1101 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
BASED ON DEVELOPING CU FIELD...WOULD ANTICIPATE THE FIRST
SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY TO DEVELOP OVER OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND
POSSIBLY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER...WITH
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ELSEHWERE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. LIKE
YESTERDAY...COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPARSE. TEMPS WILL
APPROACH RECORDS WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES SIMILAR TO OR A
TAD WARMER THAN WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY. ALL IS HANDLED
WELL IN INHERITED FORECAST AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED BEYOND SOME
FRESHENING OF NEAR TERM GRIDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO PRIMARILY REMOVE THE PATCHY FOG FROM THE
GRIDS AND ZFP. ALSO...TWEAKED THE T AND TD ONES PER THE LATEST OBS
AND TRENDS. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS
ALONG WITH A FRESHENED SET OF ZONES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY WITH
LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH ALONG WITH A WEST TO EAST FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FOUND OVER NORTHERN OHIO. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS
NIGHT HAS BEEN CONFINED TO THE AN AREA JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT
ROUGHLY THROUGH CENTRAL OHIO WITH CELL MOVEMENT TO THE EAST. THE
CLOUDS ARE CO-LOCATED WITH THE CONVECTION LEAVING EAST KENTUCKY
MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS HAS HELPED A MILD RIDGE TO
VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT TO SET UP...RUNNING ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO
7 DEGREES...VARYING FROM THE MID 70S ON THE RIDGES TO THE UPPER
60S IN THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS. MEANWHILE...DEWPOINTS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND THE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. WOULD EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS THROUGH DAWN...BUT NOT MUCH HAS SHOWN UP YET IN THE OBS...
FOG CHANNEL...OR WEB CAMS.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS
THEY ALL KEEP A MODERATELY STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE NATION. FOR THE MOST PART...THIS WILL KEEP
CONVECTION TO A MINIMUM UNDER ITS AEGIS. HOWEVER...ENERGY WILL
TOP THIS RIDGE EARLY TUESDAY AND PUSH THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY BRINGING OUR BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY FOR
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL
AGREEMENT HAVE FOLLOWED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12
GUIDANCE MOST CLOSELY FOR WX DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE JUST ABOUT A REPEAT OF SUNDAY WITH
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY TODAY...THOUGH A
STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON...
GENERALLY NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED ON TUESDAY AS THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTERS PASSING BY TO THE NORTH...INDUCED BY THE EAST TO WEST
MOVING MID LEVEL ENERGY PACKETS...MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO BREACH THE
RIDGE AND SFC HIGH WITH OUTFLOW GENERATED STORMS...MAINLY ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES. THIS CONVECTION WILL TEMPER THE HEAT A BIT
WHERE IT OCCURS...BUT 90S WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE FOR PLACES THAT
MISS OUT...LIKE THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY...IN ALL PROBABILITY. THE
ORGANIZED NATURE OF THESE STORMS WOULD ALSO REPRESENT A THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS SHOULD A CLUSTER MAKE IT INTO THE CWA ON
TUESDAY. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS CONCERN IN THE FORTHCOMING HWO.
OTHERWISE...THERE SHOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT DROP OFF IN ANY ACTIVITY
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG TOWARD DAWN AN EXPECTED ELEMENT.
PER THE USUAL...T/TD/WINDS WERE STARTED OFF FROM THE SHORTBLEND
GUIDANCE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SUPERBLEND. DID
MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOWS TONIGHT FOR TERRAIN
DISTINCTIONS BUT ALSO RAISED HIGHS TODAY A NOTCH...SIMILAR TO
SUNDAY/S HIGHS. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO THE SURPRISINGLY
SIMILAR MAV AND MET MOS NUMBERS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTING OFF WITH A
LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN PARKED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS FINALLY BREAKING DOWN AND
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. AS THE RIDGE DOES THIS...A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS THE REGION. WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE ARE THEN PROGGED TO FORM AND PROPAGATE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE ONE MAJOR ELEMENT OF UNCERTAINTY
FOR THE LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK AND THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND...WILL BE
WHETHER OR NOT THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM COMBINES ITS ENERGY
AND MOISTURE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. IF THIS WERE TO
HAPPEN...AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE SUGGESTING...A WIDE
SWATH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE COULD SPREAD ACROSS THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SCENARIO WOULD MAKE FOR
A VERY WET END TO THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE THE
FORECAST ISSUE OF MOST INTEREST IN THE EXTENDED...AND WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY TO SEE HOW EVERYTHING PANS OUT BY WEEKS END. IN
THE MEANTIME...HOWEVER...HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT
SOME SORT OF BOUNDARY WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS OR VERY NEAR THE AREA
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
THAT BEING SAID...DECIDED TO GO WITH A GENERAL 30 TO 40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY AND NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BEING THE PEAK TIME FOR CONVECTION.
THE QUESTION MARK FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT A
SLUG OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS PRESENT TO FUEL FURTHER SHOWER AND
STORM ACTIVITY. IF THIS OCCURS...WE COULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND SUNDAY. AS
IT STANDS...THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH
THE FRONT TO SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY THIS WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK AS
WELL. DAILY HIGHS OVERALL SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME LOCATIONS ON WEDNESDAY COULD EVEN TOP 90
DEGREES AS THE RIDGE FIRST BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S ON AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 800 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
SOME SCT TO BKN LOW VFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY AS A
THICKER CLOUD DECK MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH...MAINLY ACROSS KSYM
AND POSSIBLY DOWN TO KSJS. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT SYM THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE INCLUDED A VCTS IN ITS
TAF. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE THE RULE INTO MID MORNING
BEFORE PICKING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS LATER IN THE
DAY AT MOST SPOTS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS RETURN TONIGHT WITH
ANY FOG AGAIN CONTAINED IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS AWAY FOR ANY TAF
SITES.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ABE
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
755 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO PRIMARILY REMOVE THE PATCHY FOG FROM THE
GRIDS AND ZFP. ALSO...TWEAKED THE T AND TD ONES PER THE LATEST OBS
AND TRENDS. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS
ALONG WITH A FRESHENED SET OF ZONES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY WITH
LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH ALONG WITH A WEST TO EAST FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FOUND OVER NORTHERN OHIO. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS
NIGHT HAS BEEN CONFINED TO THE AN AREA JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT
ROUGHLY THROUGH CENTRAL OHIO WITH CELL MOVEMENT TO THE EAST. THE
CLOUDS ARE CO-LOCATED WITH THE CONVECTION LEAVING EAST KENTUCKY
MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS HAS HELPED A MILD RIDGE TO
VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT TO SET UP...RUNNING ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO
7 DEGREES...VARYING FROM THE MID 70S ON THE RIDGES TO THE UPPER
60S IN THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS. MEANWHILE...DEWPOINTS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND THE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. WOULD EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS THROUGH DAWN...BUT NOT MUCH HAS SHOWN UP YET IN THE OBS...
FOG CHANNEL...OR WEB CAMS.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS
THEY ALL KEEP A MODERATELY STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE NATION. FOR THE MOST PART...THIS WILL KEEP
CONVECTION TO A MINIMUM UNDER ITS AEGIS. HOWEVER...ENERGY WILL
TOP THIS RIDGE EARLY TUESDAY AND PUSH THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY BRINGING OUR BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY FOR
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL
AGREEMENT HAVE FOLLOWED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12
GUIDANCE MOST CLOSELY FOR WX DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE JUST ABOUT A REPEAT OF SUNDAY WITH
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY TODAY...THOUGH A
STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON...
GENERALLY NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED ON TUESDAY AS THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTERS PASSING BY TO THE NORTH...INDUCED BY THE EAST TO WEST
MOVING MID LEVEL ENERGY PACKETS...MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO BREACH THE
RIDGE AND SFC HIGH WITH OUTFLOW GENERATED STORMS...MAINLY ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES. THIS CONVECTION WILL TEMPER THE HEAT A BIT
WHERE IT OCCURS...BUT 90S WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE FOR PLACES THAT
MISS OUT...LIKE THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY...IN ALL PROBABILITY. THE
ORGANIZED NATURE OF THESE STORMS WOULD ALSO REPRESENT A THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS SHOULD A CLUSTER MAKE IT INTO THE CWA ON
TUESDAY. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS CONCERN IN THE FORTHCOMING HWO.
OTHERWISE...THERE SHOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT DROP OFF IN ANY ACTIVITY
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG TOWARD DAWN AN EXPECTED ELEMENT.
PER THE USUAL...T/TD/WINDS WERE STARTED OFF FROM THE SHORTBLEND
GUIDANCE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SUPERBLEND. DID
MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOWS TONIGHT FOR TERRAIN
DISTINCTIONS BUT ALSO RAISED HIGHS TODAY A NOTCH...SIMILAR TO
SUNDAY/S HIGHS. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO THE SURPRISINGLY
SIMILAR MAV AND MET MOS NUMBERS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTING OFF WITH A
LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN PARKED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS FINALLY BREAKING DOWN AND
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. AS THE RIDGE DOES THIS...A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS THE REGION. WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE ARE THEN PROGGED TO FORM AND PROPAGATE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE ONE MAJOR ELEMENT OF UNCERTAINTY
FOR THE LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK AND THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND...WILL BE
WHETHER OR NOT THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM COMBINES ITS ENERGY
AND MOISTURE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. IF THIS WERE TO
HAPPEN...AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE SUGGESTING...A WIDE
SWATH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE COULD SPREAD ACROSS THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SCENARIO WOULD MAKE FOR
A VERY WET END TO THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE THE
FORECAST ISSUE OF MOST INTEREST IN THE EXTENDED...AND WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY TO SEE HOW EVERYTHING PANS OUT BY WEEKS END. IN
THE MEANTIME...HOWEVER...HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT
SOME SORT OF BOUNDARY WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS OR VERY NEAR THE AREA
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
THAT BEING SAID...DECIDED TO GO WITH A GENERAL 30 TO 40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY AND NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BEING THE PEAK TIME FOR CONVECTION.
THE QUESTION MARK FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT A
SLUG OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS PRESENT TO FUEL FURTHER SHOWER AND
STORM ACTIVITY. IF THIS OCCURS...WE COULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND SUNDAY. AS
IT STANDS...THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH
THE FRONT TO SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY THIS WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK AS
WELL. DAILY HIGHS OVERALL SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME LOCATIONS ON WEDNESDAY COULD EVEN TOP 90
DEGREES AS THE RIDGE FIRST BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S ON AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 800 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
SOME SCT TO BKN LOW VFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY AS A
THICKER CLOUD DECK MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH...MAINLY ACROSS KSYM
AND POSSIBLY DOWN TO KSJS. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT SYM THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE INCLUDED A VCTS IN ITS
TAF. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE THE RULE INTO MID MORNING
BEFORE PICKING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS LATER IN THE
DAY AT MOST SPOTS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS RETURN TONIGHT WITH
ANY FOG AGAIN CONTAINED IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS AWAY FOR ANY TAF
SITES.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
722 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 709 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
LATEST WEB CAMS SHOW MOST OF THE FOG NEAR THE LK SUP SHORE HAS
CLEARED AWAY. SO CUT DOWN ON FOG COVERAGE TO JUST PATCHY IN THIS
AREA. CANX THE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVYS ALONG LK SUP EARLIER TO
ACCOUNT FOR THESE TRENDS. AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...PERSIST
NEAR LK MI AND THE BAY OF GREEN BAY. THIS FOG IS NOT LIKELY TO BURN
OFF UNTIL MID TO LATE MRNG WHEN DAYTIME HEATING WL HAVE A GREATER
IMPACT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE
UPR TROF AXIS SHIFTING E THRU THE NRN PLAINS ON THE WRN FLANK OF
RETREATING UPR RDG OVER QUEBEC/NEW ENGLAND. UPR MI IS CURRENTLY
DOMINATED BY DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVC AND STABLE AIRMASS DEPICTED ON THE
00Z GRB RAOB...WHICH SHOWS A SHARP INVRN BTWN ABOUT H8-75 AND KINX
OF -3C...SO THERE IS NO PCPN. BUT WITH LINGERING LLVL MSTR...LO CLDS
PERSIST E OF A LINE FM MUNISING TO ESCANABA OR SO...WITH SOME PATCHY
FOG OVER THE W WITH JUST SOME HI CLDS SPREADING E WELL IN ADVANCE OF
SFC COLD FNT STRETCHING FM NW ONTARIO INTO MN. THERE ARE A FEW
SHOWERS OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD STRETCHING TOWARD MPX THAT ARE MOVING
INTO FAR WRN LK SUP AND EVEN A LTG STRIKE OR TWO JUST S OF DULUTH...
BUT TRACK OF STRONGER SHRTWV INTO FAR NW ONTARIO...NOCTURNAL
COOLING/LIMITED MUCAPE NO MORE THAN ABOUT 100 J/KG...AND LIMITED
MSTR RETURN AHEAD OF THE FNT PER THE 00Z MPX RAOB...WHERE THE H925
AND H85 WINDS WERE SW AT ONLY 5 KTS...IS LIMITING THE COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS. MUCH DRIER AIR IS PRESENT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...SO THERE ARE NOTHING MORE THAN SOME PATCHY CLDS ALONG A
SECOND COLD FNT MOVING INTO FAR NW MN.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SHOWERS/TS AS LEADING SFC COLD FNT CROSSES UPR MI DURING PERIOD OF
DAYTIME HEATING.
TODAY...LEADING SFC COLD FNT IS FCST TO MOVE INTO THE FAR WRN LAND
CWA EARLY THIS MRNG. DESPITE THE NEGATIVE FACTORS LISTED ABOVE...
THERE WL BE AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS AS MODELS FCST AN AREA OF
STRONGER DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA OVER THE
INCOMING FNT. TO THE E...THERE WL BE SOME PATCHY FOG THAT IS LOCALLY
DENSE ESPCIALLY NEAR THE LK SHORES THIS MRNG...BUT ARRIVAL OF
THICKER MID/HI CLDS AND THEN DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CAUSE THIS FOG
TO DISSIPATE EXCEPT NEAR THE SHORES. AS THE FNT PRESSES TO THE E
THRU THE DAY IN THE PRESENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING AND UNDER THE DEEP
LYR FORCING...MODELS INDICATE THIS BNDRY WL ENCOUNTER INCRSG MUCAPE
IN THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE OVER THE SCENTRAL WHEN IT ARRIVES THERE
NEAR 18Z. SINCE THE HIER RES MODELS INDICATE THERE WL BE SOME
GREATER LLVL CNVGC AS THE FNT ENCOUNTERS SOME LK BREEZE BNDRYS
THERE...WL MAINTAIN THE HIER CHC POPS IN THIS AREA...WHERE MAX TEMPS
WL AT LEAST APRCH 80 IN THE PRESENCE OF H85 TEMPS IN THE 13-14C
RANGE. DURING THE AFTN OVER THE W...EXPECT SKIES TO TURN MOSUNNY AS
THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FROPA.
TNGT...ALTHOUGH THE TRAILING SECOND FNT IS FCST TO CROSS UPR MI THIS
EVNG...EARLIER EXIT OF THE DEEPER MSTR INDICATES THERE WL BE ONLY
PATCHY CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS BNDRY. UNDER MOCLR
SKIES...EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 40S AT MOST PLACES AS H85
TEMPS TUMBLE AS LO AS 4C OVER THE NW CWA BY 12Z TUE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...WITH OFF AND ON LIGHT SHOWERS.
BY 12Z TUESDAY THE SFC HIGH OVER MN WILL BE SHIFTING INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. WILL START OFF THE PERIOD DRY...WITH THE HIGH DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...AND EXITING ACROSS E UPPER MI BY
06Z. PW VALUES BOTTOM OUT AROUND 0.5 OVER THE E HALF OF THE CWA
EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. KEPT THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT
RIGHT AROUND 40F OVER THE E. HOWEVER...WITH HIGH CLOUDS ROLLING IN W
AND CENTRAL...TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S WILL BE COMMON
ELSEWHERE.
SHOWERS WILL APPROACH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE FAR SW...AND
EXPAND CENTRAL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY TO OUR S...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT
SLIGHT CHANCE TS MAINLY NEAR THE WI BORDER. EVEN THAT MAY BE A BIT
OVERDONE. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE MONITOR FOR FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS.
UPPER MI WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE MAIN LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AND A
SECONDARY LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY. THE
NORTHERLY COLD FRONT WILL DRAG ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING LATER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. WAA ON FRIDAY /30KT 850MB WINDS OFF THE 15/00Z ECMWF/ WILL
HELP TEMPS REBOUND IN TO UPPER 60S. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES
WITH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION LIKELY BEING THE BEST
CHOICE AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
EXPECT LINGERING FOG/LIFR CONDITIONS AT SAW TO BURN OFF SOON AFTER
TAF ISSUANCE AND GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH SOME HEAVIER
SHOWERS ALONG AN INCOMING COLD FNT MAY BRING SOME MVFR CONDITIONS AT
IWD...THESE HEAVIER SHOWERS WL SHIFT TO THE E AND AWAY FM THIS SITE
EARLY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF VFR WX. CMX IS LIKELY TO MISS THESE
SHOWERS ALTOGETHER. SCT -SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE FNT MAY IMPACT SAW
FM LATE THIS MRNG THRU MID AFTN. ALTHOUGH A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS
COULD CAUSE MVFR CONDITIONS THERE FOR A BRIEF TIME...UNCERTAINTY ON
THE OCCURRENCE AND TIMING OF THESE SHOWERS IS TOO HI TO INCLUDE A
SPECIFIC FCST OF LOWER THAN VFR. DRIER AIR IN THE NNW FLOW BEHIND
THE COLD FROPA WL THEN RESULT IN VFR WX AT ALL 3 TAF SITES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 25KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TROUGH
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SLOWLY EXIT E TODAY...ALONG WITH MUCH OF
THE LINGERING FOG. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N PLAINS THIS EVENING WILL
BUILD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY...AND ACROSS ALL OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
A TROUGH WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS A LOW PUSHES
ACROSS N MANITOBA AND A LOW PASSES NEAR S LAKE MICHIGAN. HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS S CENTRAL CANADA AND THE N PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING
WILL BUILD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN OVER
THE REGION...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES LATE FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ263>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ221-248-
250.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
710 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 709 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
LATEST WEB CAMS SHOW MOST OF THE FOG NEAR THE LK SUP SHORE HAS
CLEARED AWAY. SO CUT DOWN ON FOG COVERAGE TO JUST PATCHY IN THIS
AREA. CANX THE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVYS ALONG LK SUP EARLIER TO
ACCOUNT FOR THESE TRENDS. AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...PERSIST
NEAR LK MI AND THE BAY OF GREEN BAY. THIS FOG IS NOT LIKELY TO BURN
OFF UNTIL MID TO LATE MRNG WHEN DAYTIME HEATING WL HAVE A GREATER
IMPACT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE
UPR TROF AXIS SHIFTING E THRU THE NRN PLAINS ON THE WRN FLANK OF
RETREATING UPR RDG OVER QUEBEC/NEW ENGLAND. UPR MI IS CURRENTLY
DOMINATED BY DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVC AND STABLE AIRMASS DEPICTED ON THE
00Z GRB RAOB...WHICH SHOWS A SHARP INVRN BTWN ABOUT H8-75 AND KINX
OF -3C...SO THERE IS NO PCPN. BUT WITH LINGERING LLVL MSTR...LO CLDS
PERSIST E OF A LINE FM MUNISING TO ESCANABA OR SO...WITH SOME PATCHY
FOG OVER THE W WITH JUST SOME HI CLDS SPREADING E WELL IN ADVANCE OF
SFC COLD FNT STRETCHING FM NW ONTARIO INTO MN. THERE ARE A FEW
SHOWERS OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD STRETCHING TOWARD MPX THAT ARE MOVING
INTO FAR WRN LK SUP AND EVEN A LTG STRIKE OR TWO JUST S OF DULUTH...
BUT TRACK OF STRONGER SHRTWV INTO FAR NW ONTARIO...NOCTURNAL
COOLING/LIMITED MUCAPE NO MORE THAN ABOUT 100 J/KG...AND LIMITED
MSTR RETURN AHEAD OF THE FNT PER THE 00Z MPX RAOB...WHERE THE H925
AND H85 WINDS WERE SW AT ONLY 5 KTS...IS LIMITING THE COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS. MUCH DRIER AIR IS PRESENT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...SO THERE ARE NOTHING MORE THAN SOME PATCHY CLDS ALONG A
SECOND COLD FNT MOVING INTO FAR NW MN.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SHOWERS/TS AS LEADING SFC COLD FNT CROSSES UPR MI DURING PERIOD OF
DAYTIME HEATING.
TODAY...LEADING SFC COLD FNT IS FCST TO MOVE INTO THE FAR WRN LAND
CWA EARLY THIS MRNG. DESPITE THE NEGATIVE FACTORS LISTED ABOVE...
THERE WL BE AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS AS MODELS FCST AN AREA OF
STRONGER DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA OVER THE
INCOMING FNT. TO THE E...THERE WL BE SOME PATCHY FOG THAT IS LOCALLY
DENSE ESPCIALLY NEAR THE LK SHORES THIS MRNG...BUT ARRIVAL OF
THICKER MID/HI CLDS AND THEN DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CAUSE THIS FOG
TO DISSIPATE EXCEPT NEAR THE SHORES. AS THE FNT PRESSES TO THE E
THRU THE DAY IN THE PRESENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING AND UNDER THE DEEP
LYR FORCING...MODELS INDICATE THIS BNDRY WL ENCOUNTER INCRSG MUCAPE
IN THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE OVER THE SCENTRAL WHEN IT ARRIVES THERE
NEAR 18Z. SINCE THE HIER RES MODELS INDICATE THERE WL BE SOME
GREATER LLVL CNVGC AS THE FNT ENCOUNTERS SOME LK BREEZE BNDRYS
THERE...WL MAINTAIN THE HIER CHC POPS IN THIS AREA...WHERE MAX TEMPS
WL AT LEAST APRCH 80 IN THE PRESENCE OF H85 TEMPS IN THE 13-14C
RANGE. DURING THE AFTN OVER THE W...EXPECT SKIES TO TURN MOSUNNY AS
THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FROPA.
TNGT...ALTHOUGH THE TRAILING SECOND FNT IS FCST TO CROSS UPR MI THIS
EVNG...EARLIER EXIT OF THE DEEPER MSTR INDICATES THERE WL BE ONLY
PATCHY CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS BNDRY. UNDER MOCLR
SKIES...EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 40S AT MOST PLACES AS H85
TEMPS TUMBLE AS LO AS 4C OVER THE NW CWA BY 12Z TUE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...WITH OFF AND ON LIGHT SHOWERS.
BY 12Z TUESDAY THE SFC HIGH OVER MN WILL BE SHIFTING INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. WILL START OFF THE PERIOD DRY...WITH THE HIGH DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...AND EXITING ACROSS E UPPER MI BY
06Z. PW VALUES BOTTOM OUT AROUND 0.5 OVER THE E HALF OF THE CWA
EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. KEPT THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT
RIGHT AROUND 40F OVER THE E. HOWEVER...WITH HIGH CLOUDS ROLLING IN W
AND CENTRAL...TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S WILL BE COMMON
ELSEWHERE.
SHOWERS WILL APPROACH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE FAR SW...AND
EXPAND CENTRAL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY TO OUR S...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT
SLIGHT CHANCE TS MAINLY NEAR THE WI BORDER. EVEN THAT MAY BE A BIT
OVERDONE. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE MONITOR FOR FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS.
UPPER MI WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE MAIN LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AND A
SECONDARY LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY. THE
NORTHERLY COLD FRONT WILL DRAG ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING LATER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. WAA ON FRIDAY /30KT 850MB WINDS OFF THE 15/00Z ECMWF/ WILL
HELP TEMPS REBOUND IN TO UPPER 60S. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES
WITH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION LIKELY BEING THE BEST
CHOICE AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
MID CLOUDS MOVING AHEAD OF INCOMING SYSTEM FROM THE WEST MAY LIMIT
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH CLOUDS
WILL UTILIZE A TEMPO GROUP FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF MVFR VSBYS IN FOG AT MAINLY KCMX AND KSAW WHERE DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE ONLY A DEGREE AT PRESENT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. EXPECT IT TO HAVE THE
GREATEST INFLUENCE ON KIWD/KSAW AND HAVE WENT WITH
-SHRA AT THOSE SITES. THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS AT
KIWD LATE TONIGHT AND KSAW ON MONDAY. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES FROM
WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE FRONT MON AFTERNOON INTO MON EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 25KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TROUGH
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SLOWLY EXIT E TODAY...ALONG WITH MUCH OF
THE LINGERING FOG. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N PLAINS THIS EVENING WILL
BUILD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY...AND ACROSS ALL OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
A TROUGH WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS A LOW PUSHES
ACROSS N MANITOBA AND A LOW PASSES NEAR S LAKE MICHIGAN. HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS S CENTRAL CANADA AND THE N PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING
WILL BUILD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN OVER
THE REGION...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES LATE FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ263>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ221-248-
250.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
656 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND AT 3 AM WAS LOCATED FROM NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN TO
SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED BEHIND
THIS COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AND FAR EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA IN RESPONSE TO A BIT OF LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...AND
MODELS SHOW AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR THEM TO BUILD EAST ACROSS
SRN MN IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL ARRIVE
LATER THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS IOWA LIFT NORTHEAST
INTO SOUTHEASTERN MN AND WI. THE HRRR HAS A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON
WHAT IS CURRENTLY ON RADAR AND RELIED HEAVILY ON IT FOR THE TRENDS
EXPECTED TODAY. BEST WINDOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO IMPACT AREAS
FROM ALBERT LEA TO EAU CLAIRE IS MID TO LATE MORNING WITH DRIER AIR
ARRIVING THIS AFTERNOON.
THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH CLEARING SKIES. LOWER DEW
POINTS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD WILL BRING LOW TEMPS DOWN
INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S TONIGHT. DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL
PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
THE LONG TERM CONCERNS REMAIN TIMING OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE AREA AS WE REMAIN CLOSE TO BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THE POLAR JET.
ALSO...MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS BECOME MORE
AMPLIFIED AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
INITIALLY...DRY AND MILD WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY. THALER
QG INDICATES FORCING AHEAD OF THE DAKOTAS SHORT WAVE SHOULD BE
ABLE TO SPREAD SOME SHOWERS INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. TIMING STILL LOOKS LIKE THAT THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THREAT SHOULD EXIT INTO WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THUNDER THREAT IS MINIMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
THE NEXT THREAT OF MORE ORGANIZED WEATHER SHOULD MOVE INTO THE
AREA LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
TROPICAL SYSTEM AND ITS ATTENDANT DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH
OF THE AREA. THE NORTHERN JET STREAM FORCING ANOTHER WAVE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. FASTER UPPER FLOW BRINGS ANOTHER TROUGH
INTO THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH
THE TROUGH WITH THE ECMWF PAINTING A DEEP LOW DEVELOPING AND
MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS IS LIKELY OVERDONE...BUT
DETAILS WITH TIMING OF ACTIVITY REMAINS DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME.
IF THE GFS VERIFIES... MUCH OF SATURDAY COULD BE DRY. WE WILL HAVE
TO WAIT AND SEE IF MODEL CONTINUITY BECOMES CLEARER IN FUTURE
MODEL RUNS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DIFFICULT AS WELL...WITH READINGS
RANGING CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGE TRENDING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL AGAIN INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
IFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ALONG I-90 AND I-35 ACROSS SRN
MN...BUT EXPECT SUCH CONDITIONS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF ANY TAF
LOCATIONS. MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS. ONE SUCH
CLUSTER SOUTH OF RWF AND WEST OF MKT IS NOT MOVING MUCH AT ALL. IT
WILL BREAK UP LATER THIS MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING TO THE EAST ACROSS WI AND SERN MN. GRADUAL
CLEARING EXPECTED ELSEWHERE TODAY AND ACROSS WI THIS EVENING.
KMSP...SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL VERY LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH
AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS E AT 5 KT.
WED...VFR WITH IFR/TSRA LIKELY EARLY. WINDS E AT 5-15 KT BECOMING
NW.
THU...VFR. WINDS N 5-10 KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1007 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY INTO MID WEEK.
THE WORST OF THE HEAT WAVE IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TUESDAY. SOMEWHAT
LOWER TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO WEAKEN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS
WEEK WILL BE ISOLATED. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP DURING THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM MONDAY...THE HEAT IS ON! 10 AM TEMPERATURES ARE 90
OR HIGHER IN WILMINGTON...LUMBERTON AND FLORENCE...AND IT`S JUST
GOING TO GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS. APPLYING OBSERVED 2-DAY
BIAS CORRECTIONS TO GFS AND NAM MOS YIELDS ALMOST PRECISELY THE
TEMPERATURES OUR LAST SHIFT HAD IN THE FORECAST.
ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WILL BUILD TO 1000-2000 J/KG AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON THE ONLY TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION WILL BE THE
SEABREEZE. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD MAKE BETTER INLAND PROGRESS THAN
WE`VE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO WEAKER 100-850 MB
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS COUNTERING THE NATURAL MOVEMENT OF THE
BOUNDARY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MARGINAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT
THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER NEAR THE LCL/LFC...AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY TO BE VERY ISOLATED IN COVERAGE. DISCUSSION FROM 600 AM
FOLLOWS...
TODAY WILL BE MORE OPPRESSIVE THAN THE WEEKEND AND TUE LOOKS TO
BE THE PEAK OF THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVE.
THE HEAT INDEX WILL COMMONLY REACH 105 TO 107 DEG AND A FEW SPOTS
MAY TOP THAT FOR AN HOUR.
TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL RISE TO ABOUT 21 DEG C TODAY. THIS IS A DEG
HIGHER THAN ON SUN. ON SUN...INLAND THERMOMETERS REGISTERED UPPER
90S AND A FEW SPOTS...LIKE LBT...REACHED OR JUST EXCEEDED 100 DEG.
LOCATIONS NEARER TO THE COAST WERE ALSO HOT...MAINLY UPPER 90S WITH
LOWER TO MID 90S AT THE BEACHES. AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BUILD...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT LEAST AS HOT AS ON SUN IF NOT A
DEG OR TWO HIGHER IN MOST LOCATIONS. WE ARE FORECASTING WIDESPREAD
HIGHS AROUND 100 DEG INLAND. THE MORE COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 90S WITH LOWER TO MID 90S CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE
BEACHES. THE SEABREEZE SHOULD MAKE SOME INLAND PROGRESS GIVEN THE
LIGHT W TO SW FLOW IN THE LOWEST 3 K FT. HOWEVER...THIS WILL ONLY
SERVE TO KEEP COASTAL DEWPOINTS ELEVATED OR INCREASE THEM SLIGHTLY
WHICH WILL ONLY ADD TO THE DISCOMFORT LEVEL.
RECORD HIGHS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO REACH OR EXCEED TODAY...BUT THERE
IS A POSSIBILITY IN SOME LOCATIONS.
THE RECORD HIGH AT FLO IS 104 SET IN 1981 AND THE FORECAST HIGH FOR
TODAY IS 102.
THE RECORD HIGH AT ILM IS 100 SET IN 1880 AND THE FORECAST HIGH FOR
TODAY IS 99.
THE RECORD HIGH AT CRE IS 98 SET IN 2010 AND THE FORECAST HIGH FOR
TODAY IS 96.
TEMPS AFTER SUNSET WILL BE VERY WARM WITH MANY PLACES STILL IN THE
LOWER 80S AROUND MIDNIGHT. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE MID AND UPPER
70S AND THE BEACHES MAY NOT DROP BELOW 80 DEG.
AS THE HEAT HAS BUILT...THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR LESS IN THE WAY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH EACH PASSING DAY. THE SUBSIDENCE WILL
BE EVEN GREATER TODAY THAN ON SUN AND TEMPS IN THE MID LEVELS WILL
REMAIN SIMILAR. HOWEVER...VERY STRONG HEATING WILL INCREASE
INSTABILITY WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH 1500 TO
2000 J/KG. THUS WILL SHOW AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FOR
ONLY A SMALL PART OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE...PRIMARILY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEABREEZE WITH PERHAPS A
SPOTTY POP-UP THUNDERSTORM INLAND IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH. THE HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL IS ALSO SHOWING VERY LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...STRONG MID TO UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH MID WEEK CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH PLENTY
OF SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AT THE LOW
LEVELS THOUGH TO COMBINE WITH STRONG HEATING OF THE DAY TO PRODUCE
LOCALIZED CONVECTION ALONG SEA BREEZE...PIEDMONT TROUGH AND OTHER
CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES. WINDS UP THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY WEAK WITH A LIGHT STEERING FLOW OUT OF THE W-NW AND SFC
WINDS GENERALLY DOMINATED BY SEA/LAND BREEZE. IT WILL BE THE
SUBTLE CHANGES IN WINDS AND MOISTURE THAT WILL DICTATE THE CHANGE
IN CONVECTION EACH DAY. A FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE SOUTH WILL
NOT MAKE IT INTO THE AREA BUT SOME ADDED MOISTURE WILL ADVECT
SOUTHWARD MAY ADD TO CONVECTION ON WED WITH PCP WATER VALUES
REACHING UP CLOSER TO 2 INCHES POOLING ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE STRONG
RIDGE OVERHEAD AND H5 HEIGHTS UP NEAR 594 DM AS WELL AS A
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND. LOOKS LIKE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
AND 850 TEMPS WILL PEAK ON TUES AND THEREFORE EXPECT WARMEST TEMPS
THIS DAY WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING TEMPS CLOSER TO THE COAST NEAR 100
AND TEMPS INLAND A FEW DEGREES HIGHER. THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
WILL KEEP DEWPOINT TEMPS UP IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WHICH IN
TURN WILL PRODUCE VERY HIGH HEAT INDICES AND MAINTAIN VERY WARM
OVERNIGHT TEMPS. HEAT INDICES ON TUE WILL REACH HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA ONCE AGAIN BUT WED MY FALL JUST SHY. POTENTIAL FOR AN
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WILL EXIST ON TUES WITH HEAT INDICES UP TO
110F IN SPOTS. LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL UP IN THE 70S TO AROUND
80.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...RIDGE HOLDS TOUGH FOR THE MOST PART BUT DOES
GET SUPPRESSED SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND EAST ALLOWING FOR SOME H5 HEIGHT
FALLS AND POSSIBLY SOME PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW ALOFT TO RIDE
OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. OVERALL EXPECT VERY WARM WEATHER TO
CONTINUE WITH LOCALIZED CONVECTION MOST DAYS FOCUSED ALONG SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY AND PIEDMONT TROUGH. GFS DOES INDICATE A
SHORTWAVE PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE CAROLINAS ON SAT INTO SUN
WITH A STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT AND BETTER CHC FOR
CONVECTION SAT AFTN INTO THE EVE. TEMPS WILL RUN SLIGHTLY LOWER
TOWARDS THE WEEKEND WITH MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S AS COMPARED
TO MID 90S TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS
HOLDING CLOSER TO 70 OR SO...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO REMAIN IN
THE MID 70S MOST PLACES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WITH VERY WARM HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH FEW TO SCT
CUMULUS EXPECTED AROUND 6000 FEET BY THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH A NORTHWEST WIND THIS MORNING
VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AT THE INLAND TAF
SITES. A SEA BREEZE WILL BE REALIZED AT THE COASTAL TAF SITES
GENERALLY AFTER 18 UTC AND THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST AFTER THE
SEABREEZE BREAKS DOWN AFTER SUNSET.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED WITH
THIS MORNING UPDATE. WEST WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BACK AROUND
SOUTHERLY MUCH EARLIER THAN THEY DID YESTERDAY SINCE THE WESTERLY
WIND IN THE LOWEST 5000 FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS WEAKER THAN
YESTERDAY. SEAS REMAIN ONLY 1-2 FEET ACCORDING TO LATEST BUOY
REPORTS...AND LATEST WEBCAM IMAGES SHOW THE OCEAN IS FAIRLY
GLASSY. DISCUSSION FROM 600 AM FOLLOWS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONCERT WITH A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE. MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WILL INCLUDE THE MORNING
LAND BREEZE AND THE NEARLY PINNED AFTERNOON AND EVE SEABREEZE. THE
WIND DIRECTION TO START THE PERIOD WILL BE FROM THE W AT LESS THAN
10 KT. SW WINDS WILL RETURN BY LATE MORNING AND THEN PERSIST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...BUT BECOMING S ACROSS THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS FOR A TIME LATER THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO SEABREEZE
INFLUENCES. WIND SPEEDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL
GENERALLY BE 10 TO 15 KT...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVE DUE TO SEABREEZE
INFLUENCES AND TONIGHT THROUGHOUT AS SOME NOCTURNAL JETTING
RETURNS. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT TODAY WITH SOME 3 FT SEAS DEVELOPING
LATER IN THE DAY AND BECOMING MORE PREVALENT TONIGHT. A WEAK 9 TO
11 SECOND SE SWELL WILL BE PRESENT.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT PREVAILING WINDS WILL ALLOW
SEA/LAND BREEZE TO DOMINATE THE FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH MID
WEEK. A WEAKENED BOUNDARY MAY GET A PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO
PRODUCE A SHIFT IN WINDS TO THE N-NE AND EAST THROUGH WED. WINDS
WILL BE 10 TO 15 KT FOR THE MOST PART...BUT MAY BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER ON WED. SEAS BASICALLY 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A
LONGER PERIOD UP TO 11 SEC SOUTHEAST SWELL MIXING IN WITH THE
SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN WITH LAND/SEA
BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH DRIVING THE WINDS EACH AFTN/EVE. WINDS
MAY REACH UP TO 15 KT ON FRI PRODUCING A SLIGHT RISE IN SEAS UP
TO 3 TO 4 FT. GRADIENT TIGHTENS FURTHER HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND
AND SHOULD SEE SW WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KT BY SATURDAY WHICH IN
TURN SHOULD PUSH THE SEAS UP TO 3 TO 5 FT.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...
ALTHOUGH THIS MAY NOT BE RECORD-BREAKING HEAT IT`S STILL THE
FIRST TIME IN ALMOST 3 YEARS WE`VE HAD THESE KIND OF TEMPERATURES
IN THE FORECAST.
97 98 99 100 101 102 103
WILMINGTON 6/14/15 7/27/12 7/27/12 7/27/12 7/27/12 6/30/12 6/30/12
MYRTLE BEACH 6/14/15 7/24/12 7/28/05 7/27/05 7/27/05 8/17/54 8/17/54
FLORENCE 6/14/15 6/14/15 6/14/15 7/09/14 7/26/12 7/09/12 7/01/12
THIS IS ALSO AVAILABLE GRAPHICALLY ON OUR FACEBOOK & TWITTER PAGES
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ017-023-024-
032-033-039-053>056.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-099-
105>110.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...RJD/TRA
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DRH
CLIMATE...TRA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
723 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY INTO MID WEEK.
THE WORST OF THE HEAT WAVE IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TUESDAY. SOMEWHAT
LOWER TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO WEAKEN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS
WEEK WILL BE ISOLATED. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP DURING THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM MONDAY...TODAY WILL BE MORE OPPRESSIVE THAN THE
WEEKEND AND TUE LOOKS TO BE THE PEAK OF THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. A
HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR LATE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVE. THE HEAT INDEX WILL COMMONLY REACH 105
TO 107 DEG AND A FEW SPOTS MAY TOP THAT FOR AN HOUR.
TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL RISE TO ABOUT 21 DEG C TODAY. THIS IS A DEG
HIGHER THAN ON SUN. ON SUN...INLAND THERMOMETERS REGISTERED UPPER
90S AND A FEW SPOTS...LIKE LBT...REACHED OR JUST EXCEEDED 100 DEG.
LOCATIONS NEARER TO THE COAST WERE ALSO HOT...MAINLY UPPER 90S WITH
LOWER TO MID 90S AT THE BEACHES. AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BUILD...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT LEAST AS HOT AS ON SUN IF NOT A
DEG OR TWO HIGHER IN MOST LOCATIONS. WE ARE FORECASTING WIDESPREAD
HIGHS AROUND 100 DEG INLAND. THE MORE COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 90S WITH LOWER TO MID 90S CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE
BEACHES. THE SEABREEZE SHOULD MAKE SOME INLAND PROGRESS GIVEN THE
LIGHT W TO SW FLOW IN THE LOWEST 3 K FT. HOWEVER...THIS WILL ONLY
SERVE TO KEEP COASTAL DEWPOINTS ELEVATED OR INCREASE THEM SLIGHTLY
WHICH WILL ONLY ADD TO THE DISCOMFORT LEVEL.
RECORD HIGHS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO REACH OR EXCEED TODAY...BUT THERE
IS A POSSIBILITY IN SOME LOCATIONS.
THE RECORD HIGH AT FLO IS 104 SET IN 1981 AND THE FORECAST HIGH FOR
TODAY IS 102.
THE RECORD HIGH AT ILM IS 100 SET IN 1880 AND THE FORECAST HIGH FOR
TODAY IS 99.
THE RECORD HIGH AT CRE IS 98 SET IN 2010 AND THE FORECAST HIGH FOR
TODAY IS 96.
TEMPS AFTER SUNSET WILL BE VERY WARM WITH MANY PLACES STILL IN THE
LOWER 80S AROUND MIDNIGHT. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE MID AND UPPER
70S AND THE BEACHES MAY NOT DROP BELOW 80 DEG.
AS THE HEAT HAS BUILT...THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR LESS IN THE WAY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH EACH PASSING DAY. THE SUBSIDENCE WILL
BE EVEN GREATER TODAY THAN ON SUN AND TEMPS IN THE MID LEVELS WILL
REMAIN SIMILAR. HOWEVER...VERY STRONG HEATING WILL INCREASE
INSTABILITY WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH 1500 TO
2000 J/KG. THUS WILL SHOW AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FOR
ONLY A SMALL PART OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE...PRIMARILY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEABREEZE WITH PERHAPS A
SPOTTY POP-UP THUNDERSTORM INLAND IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH. THE HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL IS ALSO SHOWING VERY LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...STRONG MID TO UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH MID WEEK CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH PLENTY
OF SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AT THE LOW
LEVELS THOUGH TO COMBINE WITH STRONG HEATING OF THE DAY TO PRODUCE
LOCALIZED CONVECTION ALONG SEA BREEZE...PIEDMONT TROUGH AND OTHER
CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES. WINDS UP THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY WEAK WITH A LIGHT STEERING FLOW OUT OF THE W-NW AND SFC
WINDS GENERALLY DOMINATED BY SEA/LAND BREEZE. IT WILL BE THE
SUBTLE CHANGES IN WINDS AND MOISTURE THAT WILL DICTATE THE CHANGE
IN CONVECTION EACH DAY. A FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE SOUTH WILL
NOT MAKE IT INTO THE AREA BUT SOME ADDED MOISTURE WILL ADVECT
SOUTHWARD MAY ADD TO CONVECTION ON WED WITH PCP WATER VALUES
REACHING UP CLOSER TO 2 INCHES POOLING ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE STRONG
RIDGE OVERHEAD AND H5 HEIGHTS UP NEAR 594 DM AS WELL AS A
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND. LOOKS LIKE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
AND 850 TEMPS WILL PEAK ON TUES AND THEREFORE EXPECT WARMEST TEMPS
THIS DAY WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING TEMPS CLOSER TO THE COAST NEAR 100
AND TEMPS INLAND A FEW DEGREES HIGHER. THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
WILL KEEP DEWPOINT TEMPS UP IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WHICH IN
TURN WILL PRODUCE VERY HIGH HEAT INDICES AND MAINTAIN VERY WARM
OVERNIGHT TEMPS. HEAT INDICES ON TUE WILL REACH HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA ONCE AGAIN BUT WED MY FALL JUST SHY. POTENTIAL FOR AN
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WILL EXIST ON TUES WITH HEAT INDICES UP TO
110F IN SPOTS. LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL UP IN THE 70S TO AROUND
80.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...RIDGE HOLDS TOUGH FOR THE MOST PART BUT DOES
GET SUPPRESSED SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND EAST ALLOWING FOR SOME H5 HEIGHT
FALLS AND POSSIBLY SOME PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW ALOFT TO RIDE
OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. OVERALL EXPECT VERY WARM WEATHER TO
CONTINUE WITH LOCALIZED CONVECTION MOST DAYS FOCUSED ALONG SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY AND PIEDMONT TROUGH. GFS DOES INDICATE A
SHORTWAVE PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE CAROLINAS ON SAT INTO SUN
WITH A STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT AND BETTER CHC FOR
CONVECTION SAT AFTN INTO THE EVE. TEMPS WILL RUN SLIGHTLY LOWER
TOWARDS THE WEEKEND WITH MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S AS COMPARED
TO MID 90S TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS
HOLDING CLOSER TO 70 OR SO...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO REMAIN IN
THE MID 70S MOST PLACES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WITH VERY WARM HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH FEW TO SCT
CUMULUS EXPECTED AROUND 6000 FEET BY THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH A NORTHWEST WIND THIS MORNING
VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AT THE INLAND TAF
SITES. A SEA BREEZE WILL BE REALIZED AT THE COASTAL TAF SITES
GENERALLY AFTER 18 UTC AND THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST AFTER THE
SEABREEZE BREAKS DOWN AFTER SUNSET.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONCERT WITH A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WILL
INCLUDE THE MORNING LAND BREEZE AND THE NEARLY PINNED AFTERNOON
AND EVE SEABREEZE. THE WIND DIRECTION TO START THE PERIOD WILL BE
FROM THE W AT LESS THAN 10 KT. SW WINDS WILL RETURN BY LATE
MORNING AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...BUT
BECOMING S ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS FOR A TIME LATER THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO SEABREEZE INFLUENCES. WIND SPEEDS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE 10 TO 15 KT...WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVE DUE TO SEABREEZE INFLUENCES AND TONIGHT THROUGHOUT AS SOME
NOCTURNAL JETTING RETURNS. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT TODAY WITH SOME 3 FT
SEAS DEVELOPING LATER IN THE DAY AND BECOMING MORE PREVALENT
TONIGHT. A WEAK 9 TO 11 SECOND SE SWELL WILL BE PRESENT.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT PREVAILING WINDS WILL ALLOW
SEA/LAND BREEZE TO DOMINATE THE FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH MID
WEEK. A WEAKENED BOUNDARY MAY GET A PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO
PRODUCE A SHIFT IN WINDS TO THE N-NE AND EAST THROUGH WED. WINDS
WILL BE 10 TO 15 KT FOR THE MOST PART...BUT MAY BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER ON WED. SEAS BASICALLY 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A
LONGER PERIOD UP TO 11 SEC SOUTHEAST SWELL MIXING IN WITH THE
SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN WITH LAND/SEA
BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH DRIVING THE WINDS EACH AFTN/EVE. WINDS
MAY REACH UP TO 15 KT ON FRI PRODUCING A SLIGHT RISE IN SEAS UP
TO 3 TO 4 FT. GRADIENT TIGHTENS FURTHER HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND
AND SHOULD SEE SW WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KT BY SATURDAY WHICH IN
TURN SHOULD PUSH THE SEAS UP TO 3 TO 5 FT.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...
ALTHOUGH THIS MAY NOT BE RECORD-BREAKING HEAT IT`S STILL THE
FIRST TIME IN ALMOST 3 YEARS WE`VE HAD THESE KIND OF TEMPERATURES
IN THE FORECAST.
97 98 99 100 101 102 103
WILMINGTON 6/14/15 7/27/12 7/27/12 7/27/12 7/27/12 6/30/12 6/30/12
MYRTLE BEACH 6/14/15 7/24/12 7/28/05 7/27/05 7/27/05 8/17/54 8/17/54
FLORENCE 6/14/15 6/14/15 6/14/15 7/09/14 7/26/12 7/09/12 7/01/12
THIS IS ALSO AVAILABLE GRAPHICALLY ON OUR FACEBOOK & TWITTER PAGES
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053>056.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DRH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED CLIMATE SECTION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
652 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY INTO MID WEEK.
THE WORST OF THE HEAT WAVE IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TUESDAY. SOMEWHAT
LOWER TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO WEAKEN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS
WEEK WILL BE ISOLATED. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP DURING THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM MONDAY...TODAY WILL BE MORE OPPRESSIVE THAN THE
WEEKEND AND TUE LOOKS TO BE THE PEAK OF THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. A
HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR LATE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVE. THE HEAT INDEX WILL COMMONLY REACH 105
TO 107 DEG AND A FEW SPOTS MAY TOP THAT FOR AN HOUR.
TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL RISE TO ABOUT 21 DEG C TODAY. THIS IS A DEG
HIGHER THAN ON SUN. ON SUN...INLAND THERMOMETERS REGISTERED UPPER
90S AND A FEW SPOTS...LIKE LBT...REACHED OR JUST EXCEEDED 100 DEG.
LOCATIONS NEARER TO THE COAST WERE ALSO HOT...MAINLY UPPER 90S WITH
LOWER TO MID 90S AT THE BEACHES. AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BUILD...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT LEAST AS HOT AS ON SUN IF NOT A
DEG OR TWO HIGHER IN MOST LOCATIONS. WE ARE FORECASTING WIDESPREAD
HIGHS AROUND 100 DEG INLAND. THE MORE COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 90S WITH LOWER TO MID 90S CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE
BEACHES. THE SEABREEZE SHOULD MAKE SOME INLAND PROGRESS GIVEN THE
LIGHT W TO SW FLOW IN THE LOWEST 3 K FT. HOWEVER...THIS WILL ONLY
SERVE TO KEEP COASTAL DEWPOINTS ELEVATED OR INCREASE THEM SLIGHTLY
WHICH WILL ONLY ADD TO THE DISCOMFORT LEVEL.
RECORD HIGHS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO REACH OR EXCEED TODAY...BUT THERE
IS A POSSIBILITY IN SOME LOCATIONS.
THE RECORD HIGH AT FLO IS 104 SET IN 1981 AND THE FORECAST HIGH FOR
TODAY IS 102.
THE RECORD HIGH AT ILM IS 100 SET IN 1880 AND THE FORECAST HIGH FOR
TODAY IS 99.
THE RECORD HIGH AT CRE IS 98 SET IN 2010 AND THE FORECAST HIGH FOR
TODAY IS 96.
TEMPS AFTER SUNSET WILL BE VERY WARM WITH MANY PLACES STILL IN THE
LOWER 80S AROUND MIDNIGHT. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE MID AND UPPER
70S AND THE BEACHES MAY NOT DROP BELOW 80 DEG.
AS THE HEAT HAS BUILT...THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR LESS IN THE WAY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH EACH PASSING DAY. THE SUBSIDENCE WILL
BE EVEN GREATER TODAY THAN ON SUN AND TEMPS IN THE MID LEVELS WILL
REMAIN SIMILAR. HOWEVER...VERY STRONG HEATING WILL INCREASE
INSTABILITY WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH 1500 TO
2000 J/KG. THUS WILL SHOW AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FOR
ONLY A SMALL PART OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE...PRIMARILY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEABREEZE WITH PERHAPS A
SPOTTY POP-UP THUNDERSTORM INLAND IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH. THE HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL IS ALSO SHOWING VERY LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...STRONG MID TO UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH MID WEEK CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH PLENTY
OF SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AT THE LOW
LEVELS THOUGH TO COMBINE WITH STRONG HEATING OF THE DAY TO PRODUCE
LOCALIZED CONVECTION ALONG SEA BREEZE...PIEDMONT TROUGH AND OTHER
CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES. WINDS UP THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY WEAK WITH A LIGHT STEERING FLOW OUT OF THE W-NW AND SFC
WINDS GENERALLY DOMINATED BY SEA/LAND BREEZE. IT WILL BE THE
SUBTLE CHANGES IN WINDS AND MOISTURE THAT WILL DICTATE THE CHANGE
IN CONVECTION EACH DAY. A FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE SOUTH WILL
NOT MAKE IT INTO THE AREA BUT SOME ADDED MOISTURE WILL ADVECT
SOUTHWARD MAY ADD TO CONVECTION ON WED WITH PCP WATER VALUES
REACHING UP CLOSER TO 2 INCHES POOLING ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE STRONG
RIDGE OVERHEAD AND H5 HEIGHTS UP NEAR 594 DEM AS WELL AS A
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND. LOOKS LIKE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
AND 850 TEMPS WILL PEAK ON TUES AND THEREFORE EXPECT WARMEST TEMPS
THIS DAY WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING TEMPS CLOSER TO THE COAST NEAR 100
AND TEMPS INLAND A FEW DEGREES HIGHER. THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
WILL KEEP DEWPOINT TEMPS UP IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WHICH IN
TURN WILL PRODUCE VERY HIGH HEAT INDICES AND MAINTAIN VERY WARM
OVERNIGHT TEMPS. HEAT INDICES ON TUE WILL REACH HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA ONCE AGAIN BUT WED MY FALL JUST SHY. POTENTIAL FOR AN
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WILL EXIST ON TUES WITH HEAT INDICES UP TO
110F IN SPOTS. LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL UP IN THE 70S TO AROUND
80.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...RIDGE HOLDS TOUGH FOR THE MOST PART BUT DOES
GET SUPPRESSED SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND EAST ALLOWING FOR SOME H5 HEIGHT
FALLS AND POSSIBLY SOME PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW ALOFT TO RIDE
OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. OVERALL EXPECT VERY WARM WEATHER TO
CONTINUE WITH LOCALIZED CONVECTION MOST DAYS FOCUSED ALONG SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY AND PIEDMONT TROUGH. GFS DOES INDICATE A
SHORTWAVE PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE CAROLINAS ON SAT INTO SUN
WITH A STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT AND BETTER CHC FOR
CONVECTION SAT AFTN INTO THE EVE. TEMPS WILL RUN SLIGHTLY LOWER
TOWARDS THE WEEKEND WITH MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S AS COMPARED
TO MID 90S TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS
HOLDING CLOSER TO 70 OR SO...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO REMAIN IN
THE MID 70S MOST PLACES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...NEARLY CLEAR SKIES/VFR EXPECTED THROUGH SUNRISE.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SW OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING LIGHT
W-WNW TOWARDS SUNRISE. FEW- SCT CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE S WITH THE SEA BREEZE LATE
MORNING AT KCRE AND IN THE AFTERNOON AT KMYR AND KILM. ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ATTM ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE PINNED NEAR THE COAST AND ALONG THE WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH
LOCATED NEAR THE INLAND TERMINALS. WILL ONLY INDICATE VCSH ATTM.
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND 00Z.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONCERT WITH A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WILL
INCLUDE THE MORNING LAND BREEZE AND THE NEARLY PINNED AFTERNOON
AND EVE SEABREEZE. THE WIND DIRECTION TO START THE PERIOD WILL BE
FROM THE W AT LESS THAN 10 KT. SW WINDS WILL RETURN BY LATE
MORNING AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...BUT
BECOMING S ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS FOR A TIME LATER THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO SEABREEZE INFLUENCES. WIND SPEEDS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE 10 TO 15 KT...WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVE DUE TO SEABREEZE INFLUENCES AND TONIGHT THROUGHOUT AS SOME
NOCTURNAL JETTING RETURNS. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT TODAY WITH SOME 3 FT
SEAS DEVELOPING LATER IN THE DAY AND BECOMING MORE PREVALENT
TONIGHT. A WEAK 9 TO 11 SECOND SE SWELL WILL BE PRESENT.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT PREVAILING WINDS WILL ALLOW
SEA/LAND BREEZE TO DOMINATE THE FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH MID
WEEK. A WEAKENED BOUNDARY MAY GET A PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO
PRODUCE A SHIFT IN WINDS TO THE N-NE AND EAST THROUGH WED. WINDS
WILL BE 10 TO 15 KT FOR THE MOST PART...BUT MAY BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER ON WED. SEAS BASICALLY 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A
LONGER PERIOD UP TO 11 SEC SOUTHEAST SWELL MIXING IN WITH THE
SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN WITH LAND/SEA
BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH DRIVING THE WINDS EACH AFTN/EVE. WINDS
MAY REACH UP TO 15 KT ON FRI PRODUCING A SLIGHT RISE IN SEAS UP
TO 3 TO 4 FT. GRADIENT TIGHTENS FURTHER HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND
AND SHOULD SEE SW WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KT BY SATURDAY WHICH IN
TURN SHOULD PUSH THE SEAS UP TO 3 TO 5 FT.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...
ALTHOUGH THIS MAY NOT BE RECORD-BREAKING HEAT IT`S STILL THE
FIRST TIME IN ALMOST 3 YEARS WE`VE HAD THESE KIND OF TEMPERATURES
IN THE FORECAST.
97 98 99 100 101 102 103
WILMINGTON 6/14/15 7/27/12 7/27/12 7/27/12 7/27/12 6/30/12 6/30/12
MYRTLE BEACH 6/14/15 7/24/12 7/28/05 7/27/05 7/27/05 8/17/54 8/17/54
FLORENCE 6/14/15 6/14/15 6/14/15 7/09/14 7/26/12 7/09/12 7/01/12
THIS IS ALSO AVAILABLE GRAPHICALLY ON OUR FACEBOOK & TWITTER PAGES
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053>056.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...RJD/MRR
CLIMATE...TRA/RJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1006 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AREAWIDE...WITH A BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH. UPPER HIGH
EDGES IN FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT EDGES
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA TUESDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ENTERING THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES
WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
OTHERWISE...AWAITING THE CONVECTION TO FIRE WITH THE HEATING
TODAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY. RUC
HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON A DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO AND NORTHERN WV THIS MORNING...SO WILL RELY ON THE RUC FOR
MORNING POPS. BY THIS AFTERNOON...EACH MODEL VARIES ON THE PLACEMENT
OF CONVECTION. SINCE DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST...WILL RUN THE HIGHEST POPS IN THIS REGION AND RUN LOWER
POPS IN THE SOUTH WHERE SOME DRIER AIR IS TRYING TO INTRUDE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN ACTIVE SHORT TERM ON
TAP WITH A BUILDING WATER ISSUE ACROSS SE OH AND N WV.
TUES LOOKS TO BE AN ACTIVE DAY AS A DAMPENING S/W TROF ATTEMPTS TO
BEAT BACK THE UPPER RIDGE ENOUGH TO ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SAG INTO
THE CWA. AS A RESULT WILL CONTINUE THE LIKELY POPS FROM PREVIOUS
FCST CENTERED OVER SE OH AND N HALF OF WV...PRIMED DURING MAX
HEATING HRS. SOME STRONG TO SVR STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS
SPC HAS PLACED AREAS N OF I64 IN SLIGHT RISK.
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL TRY TO MAKE IT DOWN TO US 50 CORRIDOR
BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY BY TUES NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS SE OH AND N WV LOWLANDS TUESDAY GIVEN
HIGH PWATS AND POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING ALONG THE SAGGING FRONT. SOME
OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BEGINS TO WANE TUES NIGHT SO THINK THE
OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL FOLLOW SUITE AND TEND TO
FOCUS JUST ON THE BOUNDARY.
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE HEADING INTO WED WITH HOW THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN PLAYS OUT. THE MORE AMPLIFIED NAM TAKES A STOUT S/W TROF OUT
OF THE S PLAINS WHICH ALLOWS THE RIDGE TO BUILD BACK N AND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO HEAD BACK N AS WELL AND WASH OUT. THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE MUCH MORE TAME WITH THIS DISTURBANCE AND HOLD DOWN THE
RIDGE...ALLOWING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO REMAIN DRAPED OVER N
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL TRY TO PLAY A MIDDLE ROAD SOLUTION WHICH
SEEMS TO BETTER REFLECT THE NEW EURO SOLUTION. THIS ALLOWS FOR MORE
STORMS OVER SE OH AND N WV WITH LOWER CHANCES S OF I64 CORRIDOR.
THINGS TRY TO QUIET SOME WED NIGHT BUT WITH THE FRONT STILL
AROUND...KEPT SOME HIGHER POPS IN OVER SE OH AND N WV.
THU APPEARS TO BE AN ACTIVE DAY WAS WELL AT LEAST FOR SE OH WITH THE
LINGERING BOUNDARY AND CONTINUED DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION ROUNDING
THE TOP OF THE A BEATEN DOWN RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO MET/SREF/PREVIOUS WITH THE MAV LOOKING A BIT
TOO LOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WE HAVE LOST THE GFS SOLUTION SHOWING A BREAK IN THE WEATHER FRI INTO
SAT. WHILE A LARGE NRN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL CROSSES ERN
CANADA THU INTO THU NT...IT DOES NOT DIG AS FAR S AS PREVIOUSLY
PROGGED...AND THE COLD FRONT AND CANADIAN HIGH DO NOT GET AS FAR S
EITHER...SO THE FCST AREA STAYS IN THE SOUP. IT DOES STILL SHOW A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE DEEP S LIFTING OUT AND REACHING THE
FCST AREA THU...SO THIS STILL LOOKS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY. STILL
TRIED TO STAY AWAY FROM WPC CAT POPS. BUT HAVE LIKELY MUCH OF THE
DAY.
THE ECMWF HOLDS THAT S/W TROUGH BACK UNTIL FRI NT/SAT. OTHERWISE THE
MODELS BASICALLY SHOW A CONTINUATION OF THE GENERAL PATTERN. THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH SLOWLY EASES OFF THE SE COAST...WHICH ALLOWS THE
BOTTOM OF THE WESTERLIES TO SAG A BIT FARTHER SWD...INTO THE FCST
AREA...NEXT WEEKEND.
LITTLE CHANGES NEED TO TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE MOSTLY A BLEND OF
PREVIOUS...WPC AND THE MEX.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. A DISTURBANCE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL
OHIO AND NORTHERN WV EARLY THIS MORNING. AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE MOST COVERAGE
OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO
AND NORTHERN WV.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF
CONVECTION...EXACT TIMING AND INTENSITY IS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS.
.AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF MORNING FOG WILL DEPENDS OF LOCATIONS THAT
GET RAIN.
&&
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...FB/RPY/26
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JSH/TRM
AVIATION...RPY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
601 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AREAWIDE...WITH A BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH. UPPER HIGH
EDGES IN FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT EDGES
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA TUESDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY. RUC
HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON A DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO AND NORTHERN WV THIS MORNING...SO WILL RELY ON THE RUC FOR
MORNING POPS. BY THIS AFTERNOON...EACH MODEL VARIES ON THE PLACEMENT
OF CONVECTION. SINCE DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST...WILL RUN THE HIGHEST POPS IN THIS REGION AND RUN LOWER
POPS IN THE SOUTH WHERE SOME DRIER AIR IS TRYING TO INTRUDE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN ACTIVE SHORT TERM ON
TAP WITH A BUILDING WATER ISSUE ACROSS SE OH AND N WV.
TUES LOOKS TO BE AN ACTIVE DAY AS A DAMPENING S/W TROF ATTEMPTS TO
BEAT BACK THE UPPER RIDGE ENOUGH TO ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SAG INTO
THE CWA. AS A RESULT WILL CONTINUE THE LIKELY POPS FROM PREVIOUS
FCST CENTERED OVER SE OH AND N HALF OF WV...PRIMED DURING MAX
HEATING HRS. SOME STRONG TO SVR STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS
SPC HAS PLACED AREAS N OF I64 IN SLIGHT RISK.
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL TRY TO MAKE IT DOWN TO US 50 CORRIDOR
BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY BY TUES NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS SE OH AND N WV LOWLANDS TUESDAY GIVEN
HIGH PWATS AND POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING ALONG THE SAGGING FRONT. SOME
OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BEGINS TO WANE TUES NIGHT SO THINK THE
OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL FOLLOW SUITE AND TEND TO
FOCUS JUST ON THE BOUNDARY.
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE HEADING INTO WED WITH HOW THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN PLAYS OUT. THE MORE AMPLIFIED NAM TAKES A STOUT S/W TROF OUT
OF THE S PLAINS WHICH ALLOWS THE RIDGE TO BUILD BACK N AND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO HEAD BACK N AS WELL AND WASH OUT. THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE MUCH MORE TAME WITH THIS DISTURBANCE AND HOLD DOWN THE
RIDGE...ALLOWING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO REMAIN DRAPED OVER N
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL TRY TO PLAY A MIDDLE ROAD SOLUTION WHICH
SEEMS TO BETTER REFLECT THE NEW EURO SOLUTION. THIS ALLOWS FOR MORE
STORMS OVER SE OH AND N WV WITH LOWER CHANCES S OF I64 CORRIDOR.
THINGS TRY TO QUIET SOME WED NIGHT BUT WITH THE FRONT STILL
AROUND...KEPT SOME HIGHER POPS IN OVER SE OH AND N WV.
THU APPEARS TO BE AN ACTIVE DAY WAS WELL AT LEAST FOR SE OH WITH THE
LINGERING BOUNDARY AND CONTINUED DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION ROUNDING
THE TOP OF THE A BEATEN DOWN RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO MET/SREF/PREVIOUS WITH THE MAV LOOKING A BIT
TOO LOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WE HAVE LOST THE GFS SOLUTION SHOWING A BREAK IN THE WEATHER FRI INTO
SAT. WHILE A LARGE NRN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL CROSSES ERN
CANADA THU INTO THU NT...IT DOES NOT DIG AS FAR S AS PREVIOUSLY
PROGGED...AND THE COLD FRONT AND CANADIAN HIGH DO NOT GET AS FAR S
EITHER...SO THE FCST AREA STAYS IN THE SOUP. IT DOES STILL SHOW A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE DEEP S LIFTING OUT AND REACHING THE
FCST AREA THU...SO THIS STILL LOOKS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY. STILL
TRIED TO STAY AWAY FROM WPC CAT POPS. BUT HAVE LIKELY MUCH OF THE
DAY.
THE ECMWF HOLDS THAT S/W TROUGH BACK UNTIL FRI NT/SAT. OTHERWISE THE
MODELS BASICALLY SHOW A CONTINUATION OF THE GENERAL PATTERN. THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH SLOWLY EASES OFF THE SE COAST...WHICH ALLOWS THE
BOTTOM OF THE WESTERLIES TO SAG A BIT FARTHER SWD...INTO THE FCST
AREA...NEXT WEEKEND.
LITTLE CHANGES NEED TO TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE MOSTLY A BLEND OF
PREVIOUS...WPC AND THE MEX.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. A DISTURBANCE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL
OHIO AND NORTHERN WV EARLY THIS MORNING. AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE MOST COVERAGE
OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO
AND NORTHERN WV.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF
CONVECTION...EXACT TIMING AND INTENSITY IS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS.
.AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF MORNING FOG WILL DEPENDS OF LOCATIONS THAT
GET RAIN.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...FB/RPY
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JSH/TRM
AVIATION...RPY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
805 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN PARKED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THIS WEEK. PENNSYLVANIA WILL REMAIN IN THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER RIDGE WITH A SURFACE FRONT OSCILLATING
OVER THE STATE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR SUPPORT CATEGORICAL POPS DECREASING
TO LIKELIES EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE NORTH. EARLY MORNING STABILITY WILL GIVE WAY
TO DIURNALLY- DRIVEN CONVECTION BY AFTN ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AXIS OF HIGHEST GEFS PWAT ANOMALIES INDICATE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR RING OF FIRE CONVECTION.
HAVE KEPT POPS BTWN 60-65 PCT ACROSS THIS AREA WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER
POPS OVR THE N TIER. DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD YIELD AFTN CAPES OF
ARND 2000 J/KG BASED ON 00Z GEFS...WHICH COULD SUPPORT ISOLD SVR
WX. KINEMATIC PROFILE LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE WITH ONLY MODERATE MID
LVL WESTERLY FLOW OF ARND 30KTS AND 0-6KM SHEAR CLOSE TO 20KTS.
GIVEN PWATS CLOSE TO 2 INCHES...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL FROM ANY PM TSRA. CONVECTION-ALLOWING MDLS DO NOT
INDICATE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMTS TODAY...SO WILL MENTION SLIGHT
CHC OF FLASH FLOODING IN HWO FOR NOW.
OVERCAST SKIES SHOULD GIVE WAY TO BREAKS OF SUN LATER TODAY...HELPING
TO PUSH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
NEXT SHORTWAVE PASSING THRU THE GRT LKS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THRU CENTRAL PA ON TUESDAY...BRINGING OUR NEXT ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA.
MDL TIMING OF LL JET SUGGESTS THE BEST CHC OF RAIN WILL COME
TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHWEST PA AND TUES AM ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES.
GEFS 850MB MFLUX VALUES ANOMALIES ON THE ORDER OF 4-5SD ABV CLIMO
SLIDE SE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THRU MIDDAY TUES. GIVEN THE
DEEP MOISTURE AND LG SCALE FORCING PRESENT...SURPRISED AT THE
RELATIVELY LOW ENSEMBLE MEAN QPF VALUES OF ONLY ARND 0.25 INCHES
TONIGHT/TUESDAY. CURRENTLY CARRYING LIKELY POPS IN THE 60-70 PCT
RANGE...BUT THAT MAY BE TOO CONSERVATIVE. SPC CURRENTLY
HIGHLIGHTING THE ENTIRE AREA FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR WX TUESDAY
ASSOC WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH HEATING/DESTABILIZATION DUE TO CLOUD
COVER PRECIP. LATEST GEFS INDICATES VERY LIMITED CAPE TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALL MDL DATA INDICATING A PUSH OF DRIER AIR BEHIND COLD FRONT
SHOULD ENSURE A DRY TUES NIGHT AND WED AM. HOWEVER...UNSETTLED WX
APPEARS LIKELY TO RETURN LATE THIS WEEK AS QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA.
00Z GEFS AND OPER MED RANGE MDLS CONTINUE TO SHOW A PERSISTENT
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THRU LATE THIS WEEK.
CENTRAL PA SHOULD REMAIN BENEATH RING OF FIRE ON NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM WITH FREQUENT SHRA/TSRA LATE WED-SUN. A
FAIR AMT OF MDL CONSENSUS WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF SHORTWAVES...INDICATING
THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SHRA/TSRA WED NITE/EARLY THU AND AGAIN
ON SATURDAY.
AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN THIS
PATTERN...AS WELL AS ABOVE NORMAL MIN TEMPS BASED ON ABOVE NORMAL
PW.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFTER AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON/EVENING...CONDITIONS SETTLING DOWN A
BIT OVERNIGHT. MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN FOCUSED SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM KDUJ-KUNV-KLNS...WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS
THAT WILL BRING LOCALIZED RESTRICTIONS. CONDITIONS OVERALL WILL
SLIP BACK TO IFR IN THE NORTHERN MTNS...WITH MVFR BECOMING LIKELY
FOR THE CENTRAL MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS. BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSS IN
THE SE TOWARD SUNRISE.
SHOWERS CONTINUING TO DECLINE OVER SOUTHERN MTNS AT 12Z AS A LULL
IN ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. CIG
RESTRICTIONS IN ALL BUT THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...INITIALLY IN THE CENTRAL MTNS AND A BIT
LATER IN THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS/NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
CONVECTION REDEVELOPS BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED TSRA
NORTH TO NUMEROUS TSRA SOUTH...WITH ROVING RESTRICTIONS. ATMOSPHERE
WILL REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SVR WX WITH MID LVL
WESTERLY FLOW AROUND 30KTS. TORRENTIAL RAINS ALSO LIKELY IN ANY
TSTMS.
TONIGHT...DIURNALLY DRIVEN TSTMS WILL FADE BY 00-02Z. THEN AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE NW...MOST LIKELY AREA FOR
CONVECTION LATER TONIGHT SHIFTS BACK TO THE NW PORTION OF CWA
/AND MAY EXTEND INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS ON NOSE OF A LL
JET/...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSS PRETTY MUCH
ANYWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL PA IN MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS. CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS RETURN AS WELL WITH MANY AREAS SLIPPING BACK TO MVFR
OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...COLD FRONT. REDUCTIONS LIKELY IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG. OTHERWISE VFR SE...MVFR NW.
WED...PRIMARILY VFR.
THU-FRI...CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
800 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN PARKED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THIS WEEK. PENNSYLVANIA WILL REMAIN IN THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER RIDGE WITH A SURFACE FRONT OSCILLATING
OVER THE STATE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR SUPPORT CATEGORICAL POPS DECREASING
TO LIKELIES EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE NORTH. EARLY MORNING STABILITY WILL GIVE WAY
TO DIURNALLY- DRIVEN CONVECTION BY AFTN ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AXIS OF HIGHEST GEFS PWAT ANOMALIES INDICATE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR RING OF FIRE CONVECTION.
HAVE KEPT POPS BTWN 60-65 PCT ACROSS THIS AREA WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER
POPS OVR THE N TIER. DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD YIELD AFTN CAPES OF
ARND 2000 J/KG BASED ON 00Z GEFS...WHICH COULD SUPPORT ISOLD SVR
WX. KINEMATIC PROFILE LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE WITH ONLY MODERATE MID
LVL WESTERLY FLOW OF ARND 30KTS AND 0-6KM SHEAR CLOSE TO 20KTS.
GIVEN PWATS CLOSE TO 2 INCHES...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL FROM ANY PM TSRA. CONVECTION-ALLOWING MDLS DO NOT
INDICATE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMTS TODAY...SO WILL MENTION SLIGHT
CHC OF FLASH FLOODING IN HWO FOR NOW.
OVERCAST SKIES SHOULD GIVE WAY TO BREAKS OF SUN LATER TODAY...HELPING
TO PUSH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
NEXT SHORTWAVE PASSING THRU THE GRT LKS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THRU CENTRAL PA ON TUESDAY...BRINGING OUR NEXT ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA.
MDL TIMING OF LL JET SUGGESTS THE BEST CHC OF RAIN WILL COME
TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHWEST PA AND TUES AM ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES.
GEFS 850MB MFLUX VALUES ANOMALIES ON THE ORDER OF 4-5SD ABV CLIMO
SLIDE SE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THRU MIDDAY TUES. GIVEN THE
DEEP MOISTURE AND LG SCALE FORCING PRESENT...SURPRISED AT THE
RELATIVELY LOW ENSEMBLE MEAN QPF VALUES OF ONLY ARND 0.25 INCHES
TONIGHT/TUESDAY. CURRENTLY CARRYING LIKELY POPS IN THE 60-70 PCT
RANGE...BUT THAT MAY BE TOO CONSERVATIVE. SPC CURRENTLY
HIGHLIGHTING THE ENTIRE AREA FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR WX TUESDAY
ASSOC WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH HEATING/DESTABILIZATION DUE TO CLOUD
COVER PRECIP. LATEST GEFS INDICATES VERY LIMITED CAPE TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALL MDL DATA INDICATING A PUSH OF DRIER AIR BEHIND COLD FRONT
SHOULD ENSURE A DRY TUES NIGHT AND WED AM. HOWEVER...UNSETTLED WX
APPEARS LIKELY TO RETURN LATE THIS WEEK AS QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA.
00Z GEFS AND OPER MED RANGE MDLS CONTINUE TO SHOW A PERSISTENT
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THRU LATE THIS WEEK.
CENTRAL PA SHOULD REMAIN BENEATH RING OF FIRE ON NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM WITH FREQUENT SHRA/TSRA LATE WED-SUN. A
FAIR AMT OF MDL CONSENSUS WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF SHORTWAVES...INDICATING
THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SHRA/TSRA WED NITE/EARLY THU AND AGAIN
ON SATURDAY.
AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN THIS
PATTERN...AS WELL AS ABOVE NORMAL MIN TEMPS BASED ON ABOVE NORMAL
PW.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFTER AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON/EVENING...CONDITIONS SETTLING DOWN A
BIT OVERNIGHT. MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN FOCUSED SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM KDUJ-KUNV-KLNS...WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS
THAT WILL BRING LOCALIZED RESTRICTIONS. CONDITIONS OVERALL WILL
SLIP BACK TO IFR IN THE NORTHERN MTNS...WITH MVFR BECOMING LIKELY
FOR THE CENTRAL MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS. BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSS IN
THE SE TOWARD SUNRISE.
EXPECT RESTRICTIONS TO END BY MID MORNING MONDAY. LOOKS LIKE THERE
WILL BE A BREAK IN THE CONVECTION THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...BUT
SCATTERED TSRA NORTH TO NUMEROUS TSRA SOUTH FIRE UP AGAIN FOR
MID/LATE AFTERNOON...WITH ROVING RESTRICTIONS. ATMOSPHERE WILL
REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SVR WX WITH MID LVL WESTERLY FLOW
AROUND 30KTS.
AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE NW...MOST LIKELY AREA
FOR CONVECTION MON NIGHT SHIFTS BACK TO THE NW PORTION OF CWA /AND
MAY EXTEND INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS ON NOSE OF A LL JET/...BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSS PRETTY MUCH ANYWHERE
ACROSS CENTRAL PA IN MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...COLD FRONT. REDUCTIONS LIKELY IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG. OTHERWISE VFR SE...MVFR NW.
WED...PRIMARILY VFR.
THU-FRI...CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
633 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN PARKED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THIS WEEK. PENNSYLVANIA WILL REMAIN IN THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER RIDGE WITH A SURFACE FRONT OSCILLATING
OVER THE STATE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY AM WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS SHORTWAVE TRACKING NORTH OF PA
INTO NEW ENG. ASSOC LL JET AND PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS IS
SETTLING ACROSS SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...ACCOMPANIED BY NUMEROUS
SHRA AND A FEW LINGERING TSRA. RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR
SUPPORT CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS
MORNING AND SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE NORTH. 09Z SPC MESOANALYSIS
INDICATES ATMOS HAS STABILIZED...ENDING THE THREAT OF INTENSE CONVECTION
AND EXCESSIVE RAIN RATES. HAVE THEREFORE CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH.
LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS SHOWERS WILL DWINDLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES LATE THIS MORNING...DUE WANING LG SCALE FORCING IN WAKE
OF DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...CENTRAL PA WILL REMAIN UNDER
THE GUN FOR DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION BY AFTN ON NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AXIS OF HIGHEST GEFS PWAT
ANOMALIES INDICATE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR RING
OF FIRE CONVECTION. HAVE KEPT POPS BTWN 60-65 PCT ACROSS THIS AREA
WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS OVR THE N TIER. DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD
YIELD AFTN CAPES OF ARND 2000 J/KG BASED ON 00Z GEFS...WHICH COULD
SUPPORT ISOLD SVR WX. KINEMATIC PROFILE LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE WITH
ONLY MODERATE MID LVL WESTERLY FLOW OF ARND 30KTS AND 0-6KM SHEAR
CLOSE TO 20KTS.
GIVEN PWATS CLOSE TO 2 INCHES...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL FROM ANY PM TSRA. CONVECTION-ALLOWING MDLS DO NOT
INDICATE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMTS TODAY...SO WILL MENTION SLIGHT
CHC OF FLASH FLOODING IN HWO FOR NOW.
OVERCAST SKIES SHOULD GIVE WAY TO BREAKS OF SUN LATER TODAY...HELPING
TO PUSH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
NEXT SHORTWAVE PASSING THRU THE GRT LKS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THRU CENTRAL PA ON TUESDAY...BRINGING OUR NEXT ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA.
MDL TIMING OF LL JET SUGGESTS THE BEST CHC OF RAIN WILL COME
TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHWEST PA AND TUES AM ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES.
GEFS 850MB MFLUX VALUES ANOMALIES ON THE ORDER OF 4-5SD ABV CLIMO
SLIDE SE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THRU MIDDAY TUES. GIVEN THE
DEEP MOISTURE AND LG SCALE FORCING PRESENT...SURPRISED AT THE
RELATIVELY LOW ENSEMBLE MEAN QPF VALUES OF ONLY ARND 0.25 INCHES
TONIGHT/TUESDAY. CURRENTLY CARRYING LIKELY POPS IN THE 60-70 PCT
RANGE...BUT THAT MAY BE TOO CONSERVATIVE. SPC CURRENTLY
HIGHLIGHTING THE ENTIRE AREA FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR WX TUESDAY
ASSOC WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH HEATING/DESTABILIZATION DUE TO CLOUD
COVER PRECIP. LATEST GEFS INDICATES VERY LIMITED CAPE TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALL MDL DATA INDICATING A PUSH OF DRIER AIR BEHIND COLD FRONT
SHOULD ENSURE A DRY TUES NIGHT AND WED AM. HOWEVER...UNSETTLED WX
APPEARS LIKELY TO RETURN LATE THIS WEEK AS QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA.
00Z GEFS AND OPER MED RANGE MDLS CONTINUE TO SHOW A PERSISTENT
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THRU LATE THIS WEEK.
CENTRAL PA SHOULD REMAIN BENEATH RING OF FIRE ON NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM WITH FREQUENT SHRA/TSRA LATE WED-SUN. A
FAIR AMT OF MDL CONSENSUS WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF SHORTWAVES...INDICATING
THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SHRA/TSRA WED NITE/EARLY THU AND AGAIN
ON SATURDAY.
AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN THIS
PATTERN...AS WELL AS ABOVE NORMAL MIN TEMPS BASED ON ABOVE NORMAL
PW.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFTER AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON/EVENING...CONDITIONS SETTLING DOWN A
BIT OVERNIGHT. MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN FOCUSED SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM KDUJ-KUNV-KLNS...WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS
THAT WILL BRING LOCALIZED RESTRICTIONS. CONDITIONS OVERALL WILL
SLIP BACK TO IFR IN THE NORTHERN MTNS...WITH MVFR BECOMING LIKELY
FOR THE CENTRAL MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS. BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSS IN
THE SE TOWARD SUNRISE.
EXPECT RESTRICTIONS TO END BY MID MORNING MONDAY. LOOKS LIKE THERE
WILL BE A BREAK IN THE CONVECTION THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...BUT
SCATTERED TSRA NORTH TO NUMEROUS TSRA SOUTH FIRE UP AGAIN FOR
MID/LATE AFTERNOON...WITH ROVING RESTRICTIONS. ATMOSPHERE WILL
REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SVR WX WITH MID LVL WESTERLY FLOW
AROUND 30KTS.
AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE NW...MOST LIKELY AREA
FOR CONVECTION MON NIGHT SHIFTS BACK TO THE NW PORTION OF CWA /AND
MAY EXTEND INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS ON NOSE OF A LL JET/...BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSS PRETTY MUCH ANYWHERE
ACROSS CENTRAL PA IN MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...COLD FRONT. REDUCTIONS LIKELY IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG. OTHERWISE VFR SE...MVFR NW.
WED...PRIMARILY VFR.
THU-FRI...CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
654 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
NOT EXACTLY A CLEARCUT NEAR TERM FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
WHAT APPEARS TO BE A COUPLE DIFFERENT FORCING MECHANISMS AT WORK TO
BRING SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE AREA. MAIN PLAYER THROUGH THE DAY WILL
BE A SLOW MOVING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...LOCATED OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS IS CLEARLY SEEN
IN BROAD-SCALE PRECIP MOTION ON REGIONAL RADAR LOOP...WITH CELLS IN
CENTRAL NEBRASKA DROPPING SOUTH...WHILE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY FROM
EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO IOWA LIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST. LATEST MODELS SHOW
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THIS TROUGH KEEPING PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS OUR
FAR SOUTHEAST THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING...POSSIBLY LONGER THOUGH
GENERAL CONSENSUS DOES SHIFT PRECIP SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA BY 18Z.
SECONDARY PLAYER APPEARS TO BE SUBTLE ELEVATED WAVE/BOUNDARY AROUND
850-800MB...WHICH HAS SPARKED INCREASING DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR CWA OVER THE PAST HOUR. THIS
ACTIVITY ALIGNS FAIRLY WELL WITH AREA OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY
JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK WIND SHIFT SEEN IN BOTH THE RAP AND 06Z NAM.
BOTH MODELS ALSO SHOWING DECENT CONSENSUS IN WEAKENING THIS FEATURE
AS IT SHIFTS INTO NORTHWEST IOWA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...THOUGH
THE RAP IS A BIT FASTER TO LOSE THE FORCING THAN THE NAM. IN EITHER
CASE...EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE A SLOW SHIFT EAST...AND WILL
CONFINE POPS TO AREAS EAST OF KYKN-KFSD-KMML BY 12Z...WITH PRECIP
CHANCES TAILING OFF FAIRLY RAPIDLY 12Z-15Z IN AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY
60 AS THE ELEVATED BOUNDARY WASHES OUT.
WITH THE INCREASED PRECIP CHANCE/GREATER CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY...HAVE SLOWED THE RISE IN TEMPERATURES...THOUGH
STILL ANTICIPATE SOME SUNSHINE AND POTENTIAL FOR WARMING INTO THE
MID-UPPER 70S BY LATE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT WILL BRING CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY AS SURFACE RIDGE
MOVES INTO THE AREA. EXPECT MOST AREAS WILL SEE DECENT BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING THIS AFTERNOON TO SUFFICIENTLY LOWER DEW POINTS AND
MINIMIZE FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THIS IN FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS THOUGH...WHERE MIXING WILL BE MORE LIMITED DUE TO THE
LINGERING CLOUDS. WITH THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN...EXPECT MOST AREAS
TO SEE LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING ONE IN A SERIES OF WAVES
MODELS DEPICT IN A DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW FOR THE WEEK. APPROACH OF
THIS WAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FAIRLY SLOW INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AND A THERMAL PATTERN THAT WILL FAVOR THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR PRECIPITATION
THREAT. THIS WILL BE REFLECTED IN POPS WHICH WILL MAXIMIZE TUESDAY
NIGHT..WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY SPREADING OVER THE AREA AT THAT
TIME. WITH A BIT OF A MISMATCH OF PARAMETERS...THE BEST
INSTABILITY MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTH WHILE THERMAL SUPPORT AND WINDS
ARE MORE FAVORABLE WEST AND NORTH...SPC DAY 2 SEVERE RISK...MOSTLY
MARGINAL IN OUR AREA...IS ACCEPTED FOR NOW. ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND
DOWN WEDNESDAY THOUGH NOT AS FAST AS THE NAM SUGGESTS GIVEN THAT
IT SEEMS A LONER ON THE STRENGTH AND SPEED OF ITS DRY SURGE BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH
A MODEST 75 TO 80 RANGE.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD SEE A LITTLE WARMING WITH ANOTHER THREAT
OF STORMS AS ANOTHER HARD TO TIME WAVE REACHES THE AREA. THE WEEKEND
SHOULD BE BACK TO A LITTLE MORE MODEST WARMTH AND ANOTHER THREAT OF
CONVECTION. THE WAVE SHOWN BY MODELS IS STRONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS
WEAK SYSTEMS ESPECIALLY ON THE NEW EC...HOWEVER TIMING WILL AGAIN BE
DIFFICULT THAT FAR AHEAD. THE GFS AND EC ARE DIFFERENT ON STRENGTH
OF THIS SYSTEM BUT CLOSE ON TIMING...AND IF THEY ARE RIGHT A DRY
COUPLE OF DAYS SHOULD FOLLOW THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN/DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS
THE MORNING PROGRESSES. GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF THUNDER
THREAT AT KSUX...OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS TIME...BUT
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE AMENDMENT OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. KSUX IS ONLY TAF LOCATION WHICH SHOULD BE AFFECTED BY
PRECIPITATION...OR ACCOMPANYING MVFR CEILINGS...WHICH SHOULD LAST
UNTIL 17Z-18Z. NORTHWEST OF THE RAIN BAND...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
620 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
AT 3 AM...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM APOSTLE ISLANDS TO
KANSAS CITY MISSOURI. DEW POINTS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WERE IN THE
60S TO LOWER 70S...AND IN THE 40S AND 50S IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONT. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS NO CONVECTION LOCATED ALONG THIS
FRONT. MEANWHILE FURTHER SOUTH...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF IOWA...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...
AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS PRECIPITATION WAS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN EASTERN NEBRASKA IN A BAND OF 900 TO 500
MB FRONTOGENESIS.
FOR TODAY...THE 15.00Z MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA... WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH IOWA THIS MORNING...AND
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT...THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
1.50 TO 2.00 INCH RANGE. THE HIGHEST TOTALS WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN
IOWA... NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. IN
ADDITION...THE WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS IN THIS AREA WILL BE CLOSE
TO 4 KM. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL MODERATE 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THIS SAME AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY EFFICIENT
RAIN PRODUCERS. RAINFALL TOTALS COULD BE AROUND AN INCH...WITH A
FEW LOCATIONS SEEING UP TO 2 INCHES. WITH THE PRECIPITATION EXPECT
THAT RAP AND NAM ARE TOO HIGH ON THEIR 0-1 KM MIXED LAYER
CAPES...OVERALL PREFER THE LOWER GFS AND ECMWF WHICH HAVE THESE
CAPES LESS THAN 750 J/KG. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE RAP...A
MAJORITY OF THE MODELS HAVE VERY LITTLE 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM
SHEAR...SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...OR
TORNADOES.
FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA. NORMALLY THIS WOULD BE THE SCENARIO
FOR DENSE FOG. HOWEVER THE WINDS ABOVE 500 FEET REMAIN AROUND
20 KNOTS AND THE DRY AIR IS CAUSING DEW DEPARTURES OF 4 TO 8
DEGREES LATE TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE 15.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE QUICKLY EAST THROUGH THE AREA. THE STRONG WESTERLIES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM RESULTS IN 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE EXCESS
OF 50 KNOTS. HOWEVER THIS FRONT IS COMING THROUGH AT THE WRONG
TIME OF DAY AND THE 0-1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPES AT THIS TIME ARE
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...THUS NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER. THE
NAM SHOWS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE INTERACTION FROM A
SYSTEM FROM A SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
MEANWHILE THE GFS IS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE NAM
SOLUTION SEEMS TO BE A BIT TOO FAST...SO WOULD TREND MORE TOWARD
THE GFS.
FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM HAS A SLIGHT
DEEPER TROUGH THAN THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE THE 0-1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPES CLIMBING UP TO 1500 J/KG
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. THEY DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR. THE
GFS HAS 0-6 KM SHEAR GREATER THAN 50 KNOTS. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF
HAS LESS THAN 20 KNOTS. DUE TO THIS DISCREPANCY...THERE ARE A LOT
OF QUESTIONS ON WHETHER THERE WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS
SYSTEM. WHILE THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS...THEY DO SHOW THAT
THERE COULD BE INTERACTION WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE POTENTIAL
TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST GULF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
THE COMBINATION OF A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND A
SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM NEB IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SCT
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE MAIN TIMING FOR THESE LOOK TO
BE FROM 15-19Z AT KRST AND 16-20Z AT KLSE. WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCT
COVERAGE AS THE SHRA/TSRA MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...LEFT THIS AS A
PERIOD OF VCTS/CB WITH MVFR CIGS AT THIS TIME. STRONGER SHRA/TSRA
AND PRECIP CORES WILL PRODUCE IFR VSBYS...AS ANY CONVECTION TODAY
SHOULD BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. GOOD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR TONIGHT AS COOLER/DRIER CAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 5-9KTS AND THE DRIER AIRMASS WITH THE HIGH SHOULD KEEP ANY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING BR AROUND 12Z TUE TO A MINIMUM.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM....BOYNE
AVIATION.....RRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
535 AM MDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT MON JUN 15 2015
VERY ACTIVE WEATHERWISE IN THE SHORT TERM. FORECAST CHALLENGES
DEAL WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.
CURRENTLY...COLD FRONT PRETTY MUCH LOCATED WHERE
ADVERTISED...GENERALLY FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA...TO SIDNEY...ALONG
THE WYOMING/COLORADO STATELINE OUT TO NEAR RAWLINS THIS MORNING AT
1 AM. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING MCV FEATURE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE MOVING EAST AND JUST ABOUT TO CLEAR CHEYENNE COUNTY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWING THE SHORTWAVE THAT KICKED
OFF CONVECTION TO THE NORTH IS JUST ABOUT TO CLEAR THE
WYOMING/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER...WHICH SHOULD BRING CONVECTION TO AN
END FOR THE MOST PART UP THERE. NEXT SHORTWAVE TO IMPACT THE AREA
MOVING INTO IDAHO THIS MORNING WITH ANOTHER JUST MOVING ONSHORE
NEAR THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON BORDER.
FOR TODAY...ONCE THIS CONVECTION ENDS...DO EXPECT TO SEE STRATUS
DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE BEHIND THE FRONT. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE
SHOWING THE STRATUS PUSHING AS FAR WEST AS THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS
MORNING. IT MAY BE SLOW TO BREAK UP WITH EAST TO NORTHEAST UPSLOPE
WINDS CONTINUING. LATEST NAM CAPES FOR THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING
MOST UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN OUR WESTERN ZONES WITH MUCAPE AROUND
2000 J/KG ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. COULD BE DEALING
WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OUT THAT WAY TODAY.
BY TONIGHT...GUIDANCE SHOWING THE FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES. NAM...GFS AND ECMWF TARGETING HIGH QPF
FORECASTS OVER CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA COUNTIES. FORECAST STORM
MOTIONS BY DOUGLAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT UNDER 10KTS
AND PWATS OVER AN INCH. DECIDED TO HOIST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
CONVERSE/NIOBRARA COUNTIES FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.
GET A LITTLE BREAK IN THE ACTION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT BY
AFTERNOON...SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION. THE
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE CALIFORNIA/OREGON WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. NAM MUCAPES OVER 3500 J/KG IN THE PANHANDLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. LIFTED INDICES -7 TO -8C WITH 40-60KTS OF SHEAR OUT IN
THE PANHANDLE. DO BELIEVE ALL MODES OF SEVERE CONVECTIVE WEATHER
WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 AM MDT MON JUN 15 2015
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
THURSDAY...MOSTLY DRY AND QUITE WARM WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT PRODUCING ENOUGH CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
FRIDAY...FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS OUT WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALOFT MOVING
ACROSS...THOUGH WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...MINIMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY...MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES ACROSS AND WITH
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND CORRESPONDING
DECREASE IN WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WILL SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
SUNDAY...HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE WITH FLOW TURNING NORTHWEST AND WITH
DRIER LOW AND MID LEVELS...WILL SEE A DECREASE IN AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AREAL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 532 AM MDT MON JUN 15 2015
WYOMING TAFS...IFR AT CHEYENNE UNTIL 15Z...AND MVFR FROM 15Z TO
18Z...OTHERWISE VFR PREVAILS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LOCALIZED MVFR
AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS.
NEBRASKA TAFS...IFR PREVAILS UNTIL 15Z...THEN VFR WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING LOCALIZED MVFR AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 125 AM MDT MON JUN 15 2015
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MINIMAL AS MOST AREAS IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE RECEIVE WETTING RAINS THROUGH TUESDAY. A
STALLED OUT COLD FRONT ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL BE THE
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR WIDESPREAD RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT FOR WYZ101>103.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...GCC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
948 AM MST MON JUN 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...HOTTER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH VALUES BETWEEN 105 AND
111 FROM TUCSON INTO THE LOWER DESERTS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS INTO MONDAY...WITH AN ADDITIONAL PUSH OF
MOISTURE FROM NEW MEXICO TUESDAY BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE LATEST HRRR SOLUTION WAS SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE AZ/NM
STATE LINE TODAY. OTHERWISE...THE HEAT WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER
STORY THIS WEEK. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKED ON TRACK...SO NO UPDATES
NEEDED THIS MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR
MORE DETAILS.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THROUGH 16/18Z.
CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WITH FEW-SCT CUMULUS NEAR 12K FT DEVELOPING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AFT 15/18Z EXCEPT SCT-BKN OVER THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS WITH A FEW SHRA/-TSRA 15/21Z THRU 16/04Z. SKIES CLEARING
AFT 16/05Z EXCEPT NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS 12-
14K FT. NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS INCLUDING GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS
IN SOME LOCATIONS DUE TO SURFACE HEATING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...SOME LINGERING MOISTURE OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND
JUST EAST OF THE STATE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVEN A BIT MORE SO TUESDAY.
THEN A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN VERY HOT...DRY
AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR RECORD LEVELS WITH AFTERNOON MINIMUM RH LEVELS BETWEEN 8 AND
13 PERCENT EACH DAY. OCCASIONAL...UNSTABLE HAINES 6 CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING WED-SAT ACROSS ZONES 152 AND 153
THEN POTENTIALLY SPREADING INTO ZONES 150 AND 151 SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...EVEN LINGERING THROUGH THE NIGHT PERIODS THOSE TWO DAYS.
WHILE FUELS ARE GENERALLY IN BETTER SHAPE THAN IN RECENT
YEARS...THESE WEATHER CONDITIONS WOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR STRONG PLUME
DEVELOPMENT IF A LARGE FIRE WERE TO DEVELOP. WINDS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND DIURNAL WITH THE USUAL OCCASIONAL
AFTERNOON GUSTS...TYPICAL FOR JUNE. CERNIGLIA
&&
.CLIMATE...MID-JUNE NEAR RECORD HEAT IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS
WEEK. HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR JUNE 16-19.
DATE JUNE 16 JUNE 17 JUNE 18 JUNE 19
TUCSON INTL AIRPORT 109/1988 109/2008 113/1989 112/1989
BISBEE-DOUGLAS AIRPORT 104/2008 105/2008 108/1989 108/1989
AJO 112/1916 113/1917 114/1936 114/1968
FORT THOMAS 109/1978 111/1959 111/1960 115/1960
ORGAN PIPE CACTUS 110/1993 111/2001 114/1989 115/1960
PICACHO PEAK 111/2000 111/2008 112/1989 111/2002
SAFFORD AG STATION 102/2000 99/2014 101/2003 101/2008
SIERRA VISTA FD 102/1989 103/1989 107/1989 106/1989
TOMBSTONE 105/1985 105/1980 107/1989 108/1989
WILLCOX 105/1948 105/1985 106/1989 108/1989
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...MODELS INDICATE THAT AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
PUSH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...AND THE RIDGE AXIS NOSES IN FROM THE
WEST...MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL SNEAK IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST AND EAST TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. THE BEST THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
WITH LOW END CHANCE CATEGORY POPS...THEN FOR TUESDAY THE THREAT
SPREADS A BIT FARTHER WEST WITH SOLID CHANCE CATEGORY POPS FOR THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE CATEGORY POPS FOR THE
MOUNTAINS OF GRAHAM AND COCHISE COUNTIES.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE
VERY HOT TEMPERATURES ON TAP FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO MAKE EASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. LOCAL
STUDY CORRELATING 850-700MB THICKNESS VALUES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
SUGGEST HIGH TEMPS WILL BE HOT FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT
THE HOTTEST DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
READINGS APPROACHING THE 110 DEGREE MARK FOR CENTRAL DESERTS AND
MEETING OR EVEN EXCEEDING THIS THRESHOLD FOR THE WESTERN DESERTS
(AJO/ORGAN PIPE). STILL ROOM FOR IMPROVEMENT IN THE TEMP FORECAST
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER IN TIME...SO STAY
TUNED.
THESE HIGH TEMPERATURES...IN PARTICULAR FOR TUCSON...WILL GENERALLY
BE 3 TO 5 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR TODAY AND TUESDAY...THEN AROUND 6 TO
8 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE WARMEST
DAYS WILL LIKELY OCCUR FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY. LOW TEMPS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 7 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
1148 AM MDT MON JUN 15 2015
.UPDATE...INCREASED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...INTENSIFIED THUNDERSTORM WORDING WITH UPDATED SPC SLIGHT
RISK ADDITION. HAVE TOUCHED VERY LITTLE BEYOND TUE NIGHT AS
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DURING THAT PERIOD HAS CHANGED LITTLE.
HAVE ALREADY HAD GUSTS TO 50 MPH IN THE BEAR LAKE REGION FROM THE
MORNING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAS ALREADY PASSED.
UPDATES FORTHCOMING.
MESSICK
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 AM MDT MON JUN 15 2015/
DISCUSSION...ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH A
WEAK WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON. EXPECT TO
SEE A SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES
ONSHORE LATER TODAY. SURFACE PROGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A LOW
LIFTING OUT OF NEVADA AND ACROSS UTAH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. FORECAST MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG AND MODEST
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUPPORT SPC MRGL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE MAIN THREAT TO BE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WITH
SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. HRRR REFLECTIVITY
FORECAST INITIATES CONVECTION AROUND THE SODA SPRINGS AREA SHORTLY
AFTER NOON AND EXPANDS IT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HIGHLANDS
THEREAFTER. THE NAM WANTS TO START CONVECTION BEFORE SUNRISE THIS
MORNING AND THE GFS IS GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT. KEPT SLIGHT POPS
FOR SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS THIS MORNING AND EXPANDING IT OUT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TOMORROW OVER THE EASTERN
HIGHLANDS...BUT A DRIER FLOW WILL KICK IN FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE WEEK KEEPING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS WITH DRY AND WARM WEATHER CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.
HINSBERGER
$$
AVIATION...AN UPPER TROF MOVES THRU THE PAC NW TODAY...RESULTING IN
SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS BY LATE AFTN AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVE. SOME
TSTMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. OVERALL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THRU TONIGHT. HEDGES
FIRE WEATHER...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE PAC NW
TODAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL
IDAHO MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS. THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS
MAINLY DRY AND WARM...WITH WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
HEDGES
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
354 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
A COLD FRONT OVER WISCONSIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT CAUSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA TUESDAY... CONFINING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA AND THEN LIFT BACK NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN BACK TO THE AREA. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S... WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH HAS BEEN STNRY FOR SOME TIME TO OUR NORTH
WAS BEGINNING TO MAKE SEWD PROGRESS TODAY IN RESPONSE TO A SHRTWV
MOVG ACROSS ONTARIO MERGING WITH SECOND SYSTEM LIFTING NE FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA WITH
PWATS AROUND 2" HAS DESTABILIZED IN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY ALLOWING
NUMEROUS TSTMS TO DEVELOP. SOME BACKBUILDING/TRAINING CELLS OCRG
ATTM AS SUGGESTED BY RAP 5-10KT UPWIND PROPAGATION VECTORS. LATEST
HRRR SUGGESTS SCT-NUMEROUS STORMS WILL CONT LATE THIS AFTN AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WITH MORE WIDESPREAD TSTMS FORMING ALONG THE FRONT
LATE THIS AFTN AND MOVG THROUGH OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. THUS... STILL
APPEARS TO BE A GOOD SETUP FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS OUR AREA
SO FFA ISSUED EARLIER TODAY WILL CONT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
CDFNT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE STALLING OUT ON
TUE. SOME LINGERING POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS PSBL IN THE MORNING AND WK
INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW A FEW MORE TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN... BUT
OVERALL APPEARS TO BE A DAY TO DRY OUT.
WK CAA BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE 60S
TONIGHT WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS ALLOWING HIGHS TO
REACH THE L-M80S ON TUE.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
WET PATTERN AND FLOODING CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A CONSISTENT SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FEED PUMPS PWAT
VALUES AOA 2.0" INTO THE CWA. ONLY DAY OF RELIEF IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD MAY BE FRIDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SLIDES THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES AND TRIES TO SLIDE OUR PESKY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOUTHWARD. SOME PRECIP IS STILL POSSIBLE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY ON
FRIDAY...BUT THE HIGHLY EFFICIENT WARM CLOUD PROCESSES WILL CEASE
NORTH OF THE FRONT. THE REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY
IN THE WESTERN GULF ADVECT INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND
RETURN THE MUGGY CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHERN LAKES. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF INDICATE THE TROPICAL SYSTEM MAY PHASE WITH A NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE AND DEVELOP A SUB 1000MB SURFACE REFLECTION IN THE
VICINITY OF THE GREAT LAKES. A DECENT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES MAY BE JUST WHAT WE NEED TO FINALLY SHUNT THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND USHER IN DRIER CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 118 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
TSTMS EXPECTED TO CONT TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF
CDFNT OVER WI/IA THIS AFTN. THIS FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SE
ACROSS NRN INDIANA TONIGHT... ACCOMPANIED BY AN AREA OF TSRA.
STRATUS/BR EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING
BEFORE CLEARING BY LATE MORNING. THUS... CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY MVFR UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR
INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.
MI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MIZ077>081.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JT
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
129 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
A COLD FRONT OVER WISCONSIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND IN
COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THE STORMS WILL
LIKELY CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL...POSSIBLY CAUSING FLASH FLOODING. ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA TUESDAY... CONFINING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA AND THEN LIFT BACK NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN BACK TO THE AREA. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1139 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY/TNGT WITH
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS INDICATING PWAT APCHG 2" AND UPWIND
PROPAGATION VECTOR ONLY 5-10KT ACROSS OUR AREA. A SLOW MOVG CDFNT
WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA TNGT. WIDESPREAD TSTMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTN AND
CONT AT LEAST INTO THIS EVE AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
PORTIONS OF THE CWA ALREADY HAVE SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS AND
HIGH RIVER/STREAM FLOWS... BUT EVEN AREAS WHICH HAVEN`T RECEIVED
THAT MUCH RAIN RECENTLY COULD BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING
THIS AFTN/EVE DUE TO EXPECTED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES FOR UP TO
A FEW HOURS. THUS HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA FOR THIS AFTN/EVE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
MIDLEVEL VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE DRAWN
ENE TODAY BY DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY LOW. GIVEN
TROPICAL AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE COURTESY OF INTRACTABLE SOUTHEAST
CONUS RIDGE...THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR YET ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONVECTION SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
TODAY DUE TO LEVEL OF SYNOPTIC SUPPORT AND RICH THETA-E ENVIRONMENT.
HAVE THEREFORE KEPT HIGH END LIKELY POPS. ONLY QUESTION IS EXACT
TIMING/EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES.
SUBTLE MIDLEVEL PERTURBATIONS RIPPLING THROUGH THE AREA IN A VERY
MOIST (SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN LOWER 70S) AND UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT WILL
LIKELY ALLOW CONVECTION TO BLOSSOM BY LATE MORNING...EVEN MORE SO
THAN CURRENTLY BEING SEEN. EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO THEN CHURN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR A SECONDARY UPTICK IN
COVERAGE DURING THE EVENING WITH MAIN FRONTAL PASSAGE. IF EARLY
INITIATION IS TRUE (AS EXPECTED)...THIS WILL PUT A DAMPER ON SEVERE
WEATHER CHANCES. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE A PATHETIC 5 G/KG WITH A
COMPLETELY MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ANY
APPRECIABLE LEVELS OF INSTABILITY WILL DEPEND ON SUSTAINED SURFACE
DIABATIC HEATING...A TALL ORDER GIVEN EXPECTED EARLY ONSET OF
CONVECTION AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. NEVERTHELESS...WOULDNT TOTALLY
LET GUARD DOWN BECAUSE THE WIND/SHEAR PROFILES ARE BETTER THAN
YESTERDAY THANKS TO APPROACHING TROUGH. 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES WILL BE
AROUND 30-35 KTS WITH 0-3KM VALUES 20-30 KTS BY THE EVENING. THIS
COULD SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS/LINES IF INSTABILITY
ENDS UP HIGHER THAN EXPECTED. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WOULD BE
THE PRIMARY CONCERN.
SET UP WITH RESPECT TO HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL REMAINS THE SAME AS IT
HAS BEEN FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. PW VALUES REMAIN AROUND 2
INCHES...SOLIDLY IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DEEP
WARM CLOUD LAYER WILL ALSO FAVOR EFFICIENT COLLISION/COALESCENSE
PROCESSES AND MBE VELOCITIES REMAIN LOW...FAVORING POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING/BACKBUILDING OF STORMS. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
IF/WHERE SUSTAINED CONVECTION SETS UP...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. BIGGEST
THREAT FOR FLOODING WILL PROBABLY BE IN THE EVENING WHEN MAIN FRONT
APPROACHES.
CONVECTION CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY WIND DOWN FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA...THOUGH PROBABLY WONT FULLY CLEAR OUR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES BEFORE 12Z.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
CONTD SIMILAR FCST WITH CONSISTENCY IN TACT IN ATTEMPT TO BETTER
DELINEATE CONVECTIVE OPPORTUNITIES AMID WELL BROADBRUSHED MULTI
MODEL BLEND. IN WAKE OF ANTICIPATED DY1 CONVECTION OVERTURNING ATMOS
AND SUBSEQUENT SFC BNDRY PUSH TOWARDS OHIO RIVER VALLEY HAVE MUTED
CHCS TUE/TUE NIGHT...RELEGATING LOW CHC POPS TO SRN CWA WITH NOTABLY
STRONG N/S LLVL THETA-E GRADIENT. NEXT STRONG MID TROP CIRCULATION
/PRESENTLY OFF NRN CAL COAST/ TO EJECT EWD INTO CENTRAL/HIGH PLAINS
TUE EVE AND WRN GRTLKS BY MIDDAY WED. INFLUX OF AT LEAST MID/ULVL
MSTR STREAMING FROM ANTICIPATED TROPICAL CYCLONE REMNANTS ALONG WITH
LEAD SHORTWAVE EJECTION SLATED FOR MIDWEEK. WITH SRN GRTLKS POISED
ON NRN PERIPHERY OF INCRSGLY RAPID DEEP LAYER SWRLY FLOW AS DAY
PROGRESSES...PRECIP EFFICIENCIES WILL BE ENHANCED FOR ADDNL HEAVY
RAFL POTNL...WELL COVERED IN ESF/HWO. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO RAMP
CONSIDERABLY...EXPECTED CAPE PROFILES TO BE RATHER TALL/THIN OWING
TO EXTRM MOISTURE AND NOT PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE FOR STRONG/
SEVERE...THOUGH MESOSCALE DETAILS YET TO BEAR OUT. FINAL LIFTOUT OF
LAGGED EXTRATROPICAL VORTEX INTO MID MS VLY FRI AFTN...LENDING CONTD
CONVECTIVE CHCS INTO WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 118 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
TSTMS EXPECTED TO CONT TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF
CDFNT OVER WI/IA THIS AFTN. THIS FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SE
ACROSS NRN INDIANA TONIGHT... ACCOMPANIED BY AN AREA OF TSRA.
STRATUS/BR EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING
BEFORE CLEARING BY LATE MORNING. THUS... CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY MVFR UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR INZ003>009-012>018-
020-022>027-032>034.
MI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MIZ077>081.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JT
SYNOPSIS...AGD/JT
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...JT
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1248 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN THE FOCUS TODAY
WITH THE MAIN THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO ISOLATED AREAS
OF FLASH FLOODING.
COLD FRONT HAS MEANDERED INTO NORTHWEST IOWA AND WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE STATE TODAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE
305-320 K SURFACE PERSISTS INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THERE IS A BROAD AND WEAK AREA OF FORCING
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND EXPECTING THE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 2 INCHES AND THE WARM LAYER CLOUD
DEPTHS REMAIN IN THE 3800 TO 4100 METERS. THE UPWIND PROPAGATION
VECTOR OVER CENTRAL IOWA REMAIN WEAK AND THUS THESE STORMS/SHOWERS
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE AND CONTINUE TO BE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS. HOWEVER...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS ISOLATED AND
SHORT-LIVED IN NATURE AND HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE WITH ISSUING A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH ATTM. THAT BEING SAID...THERE HAS ALREADY BEEN SOME
FLASH FLOODING ISSUES IN ANKENY DUE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
EXPECT THE VERY ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL TO REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY OVER CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
IOWA...MAINLY OVER URBAN AREAS. THE LATEST HRRR (15.07Z) HAS A
DECENT HANDLE ON OVERALL RADAR TRENDS...BUT THINK IT IS SLIGHTLY
TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN TODAY.
LEANED TOWARD A RUC/HRRR BLEND FOR POPS UNTIL 18Z AND THEN NAM12
THIS AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
BY THIS EVENING THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED FORCING WILL BE MOVING OUT
OF THE AREA. LINGERING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE PRIOR TO 06Z SOUTH WITH MOST OF THE AREA DONE WITH THE
RAINFALL. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NEAR THE IOWA MISSOURI
BORDER WHERE SOME RAIN MAY LINGER ON TUESDAY. FEEL THAT MOST OF THE
RAIN WILL BE SOUTH OF THE BORDER...BUT HAVE INCLUDED A SMALL AREA
ALONG THE BORDER AS FRONT MAY STALL AND DRIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH DURING
THE DAY. AS THE HIGH RETREATS EAST ON TUESDAY...RETURN FLOW OVER THE
ROCKIES WILL DIRECT ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
AND MN THROUGH 06Z. THIS WILL INDUCE A SFC LOW AND INCREASE THUNDER
CHANCES NORTHWEST TOWARD MORNING WITH SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE. THIS
NEXT SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION BY 12Z THURSDAY AS
REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL NOT VARY MUCH WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S TO
NEAR 70. BY FRIDAY A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM IS STILL ANTICIPATED TO
FORM OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH WESTERLIES ALOFT INCREASING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE AIRMASS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL STILL BE HAVE ABUNDANT AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER FORECAST OVER 2 INCHES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WARM
CLOUD DEPTHS WILL BE OVER 13KFT. WITH THE SYSTEM INCREASING WARM
AIR ADVECTION OVER THE AREA...LIKELY THAT HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EACH DAY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE A
STRONG COLD FRONT DROPS TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY BACK INTO
THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS...POTENTIAL FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF ACTIVE
WEATHER LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY. ONCE THE MAIN FRONT
PASSES...THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ON
SUNDAY...THOUGH THEY WILL BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS AS NORTHWEST WINDS AND DRIER AIR WORKS BACK INTO
THE STATE. MONDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...15/18Z
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
AREA OF SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH AS A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS THROUGH THE STATE. SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA THIS
AFTERNOON EMBEDDED IN THE AREA OF SHOWERS. MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH
POCKETS OF MVFR/IFR FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...THEN CONDITIONS SHOULD
GO VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS PRECIPITATION
MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. WIND TO BE PRIMARILY NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT...SHIFTING AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
MONITORING FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND POTENTIALLY A FEW
RIVERS GOING ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE TODAY OR TUESDAY. RAINFALL
RATES HAVE BEEN IMPRESSIVE...WITH STREET FLOODING REPORTED IN
ANKENY ABOUT 3 AM CDT THIS MORNING...WITH UP TO A HALF DOZEN
INTERSECTIONS CLOSED AND A FEW CARS STRANDED. SEVERAL ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF RAIN MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA YET THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HEADLINES...
THOUGH MORE LOCALIZED POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL SO FAR HAVE LIMITED
THE COVERAGE OF PROBLEM AREAS.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...BEERENDS
HYDROLOGY...REV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
316 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY:
NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WHILE A MID-UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTION OF
THE NORTHERN BRANCH WAVE...WILL CONTINUE PUSHING INTO SOUTHEASTERN
KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTHWEST
TUESDAY MORNING...THEN WASHING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. ANOMALOUSLY
RICH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIRMASS (~1.75 IN.) WILL PERSIST OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS AND WILL HAVE RELATIVELY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES IN
THOSE AREAS...WHERE WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS POSSIBLE UNDER
WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT. LATEST SPC HRRR VERSION PUSHES CURRENT
CONVECTION OUT OF SOUTHEAST KS BY MID EVENING...WITH A SIGNFICANT
LULL THEREAFTER. WOULD THINK EVEN IF THIS HAPPENS...THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SHEAR AXIS EMANATING FROM WEST TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD...COULD
IGNITE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ~4KM OR
GREATER AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS FAVOR LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES. IN ADDITION...SOUNDING PROFILES WOULD ALSO SUPPORT AN
ISOLATED WET MICROBURST OR TWO.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY:
WITH REGARD TO THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE HEADING
INTO SOUTH TEXAS LATE TONIGHT...THE GFS...ECMWF...AND NAM-WRF OFFER
VASTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. THIS IS NOT SURPRISING GIVEN THE
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY THAT THIS SYSTEM
COULD IMPACT FAR SOUTHEAST KS SOMETIME LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY IF THE GFS AND NAM ARE MORE CORRECT...ALTHOUGH THE NAM
APPEARS TOO FAST WITH THE NORTH-NORTHEAST MOVEMENT. THE ECMWF
INDICATES ANY IMPACTS TO SOUTHEAST KS WOULD NOT COME UNTIL FRIDAY-
FRIDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...OVERALL CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/TRACK OF THIS
DISTURBANCE IS LOW AT THIS JUNCTURE.
NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES BUT HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST DURING
THIS ENTIRE PERIOD.
JMC
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
THE REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ARE PROGGED TO PUSH WELL
EAST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND...WHILE A FAIRLY
STRONG/AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE ECMWF WAS STRONGER WITH THE
AMPLIFCATION...DRIVING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. IT HAS AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. THE GFS DID NOT AMPLIFY THE SHORTWAVE AS MUCH...AND AS A
RESULT BRINGS THE FRONT TO CENTRAL KS NEAR I-70 BEFORE STALLING THE
BOUNDARY. A COMPROMISE OF THESE SOLUTIONS WOULD BRING THE FRONT INTO
THE HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES RATHER WARM...ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE IN
THE FORECAST...COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED.
JMC
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THROUGH KCNU DURING THE NIGHT. HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION ARE AT KCNU...WITH RAIN SHOWERS FLIRTING WITH
KICT AT THE START OF THE FORECAST. VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED OUTSIDE
OF PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOIST/UPSLOPE AIRMASS NORTH
OF FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MORE LOW CLOUDS...PROBABLY
MVFR...PSBLY IFR...TOWARDS DAYBREAK AT MOST LOCATIONS. -HOWERTON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 68 83 69 86 / 40 50 20 20
HUTCHINSON 66 83 67 87 / 30 20 20 20
NEWTON 67 82 68 85 / 40 40 20 20
ELDORADO 68 82 69 85 / 50 60 30 40
WINFIELD-KWLD 69 83 70 85 / 50 60 40 40
RUSSELL 63 83 66 88 / 20 10 20 10
GREAT BEND 64 83 66 88 / 20 20 20 10
SALINA 66 83 68 87 / 20 20 20 20
MCPHERSON 66 83 68 87 / 30 20 20 20
COFFEYVILLE 70 82 71 82 / 70 70 60 60
CHANUTE 69 82 70 83 / 70 60 60 60
IOLA 69 82 69 83 / 70 60 50 60
PARSONS-KPPF 70 82 71 83 / 70 70 60 60
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
122 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1101 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
BASED ON DEVELOPING CU FIELD...WOULD ANTICIPATE THE FIRST
SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY TO DEVELOP OVER OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND
POSSIBLY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER...WITH
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. LIKE
YESTERDAY...COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPARSE. TEMPS WILL
APPROACH RECORDS WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES SIMILAR TO OR A
TAD WARMER THAN WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY. ALL IS HANDLED
WELL IN INHERITED FORECAST AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED BEYOND SOME
FRESHENING OF NEAR TERM GRIDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO PRIMARILY REMOVE THE PATCHY FOG FROM THE
GRIDS AND ZFP. ALSO...TWEAKED THE T AND TD ONES PER THE LATEST OBS
AND TRENDS. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS
ALONG WITH A FRESHENED SET OF ZONES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY WITH
LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH ALONG WITH A WEST TO EAST FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FOUND OVER NORTHERN OHIO. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS
NIGHT HAS BEEN CONFINED TO THE AN AREA JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT
ROUGHLY THROUGH CENTRAL OHIO WITH CELL MOVEMENT TO THE EAST. THE
CLOUDS ARE CO-LOCATED WITH THE CONVECTION LEAVING EAST KENTUCKY
MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS HAS HELPED A MILD RIDGE TO
VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT TO SET UP...RUNNING ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO
7 DEGREES...VARYING FROM THE MID 70S ON THE RIDGES TO THE UPPER
60S IN THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS. MEANWHILE...DEWPOINTS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND THE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. WOULD EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS THROUGH DAWN...BUT NOT MUCH HAS SHOWN UP YET IN THE OBS...
FOG CHANNEL...OR WEB CAMS.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS
THEY ALL KEEP A MODERATELY STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE NATION. FOR THE MOST PART...THIS WILL KEEP
CONVECTION TO A MINIMUM UNDER ITS AEGIS. HOWEVER...ENERGY WILL
TOP THIS RIDGE EARLY TUESDAY AND PUSH THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY BRINGING OUR BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY FOR
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL
AGREEMENT HAVE FOLLOWED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12
GUIDANCE MOST CLOSELY FOR WX DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE JUST ABOUT A REPEAT OF SUNDAY WITH
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY TODAY...THOUGH A
STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON...
GENERALLY NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED ON TUESDAY AS THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTERS PASSING BY TO THE NORTH...INDUCED BY THE EAST TO WEST
MOVING MID LEVEL ENERGY PACKETS...MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO BREACH THE
RIDGE AND SFC HIGH WITH OUTFLOW GENERATED STORMS...MAINLY ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES. THIS CONVECTION WILL TEMPER THE HEAT A BIT
WHERE IT OCCURS...BUT 90S WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE FOR PLACES THAT
MISS OUT...LIKE THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY...IN ALL PROBABILITY. THE
ORGANIZED NATURE OF THESE STORMS WOULD ALSO REPRESENT A THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS SHOULD A CLUSTER MAKE IT INTO THE CWA ON
TUESDAY. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS CONCERN IN THE FORTHCOMING HWO.
OTHERWISE...THERE SHOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT DROP OFF IN ANY ACTIVITY
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG TOWARD DAWN AN EXPECTED ELEMENT.
PER THE USUAL...T/TD/WINDS WERE STARTED OFF FROM THE SHORTBLEND
GUIDANCE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SUPERBLEND. DID
MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOWS TONIGHT FOR TERRAIN
DISTINCTIONS BUT ALSO RAISED HIGHS TODAY A NOTCH...SIMILAR TO
SUNDAY/S HIGHS. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO THE SURPRISINGLY
SIMILAR MAV AND MET MOS NUMBERS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTING OFF WITH A
LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN PARKED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS FINALLY BREAKING DOWN AND
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. AS THE RIDGE DOES THIS...A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS THE REGION. WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE ARE THEN PROGGED TO FORM AND PROPAGATE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE ONE MAJOR ELEMENT OF UNCERTAINTY
FOR THE LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK AND THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND...WILL BE
WHETHER OR NOT THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM COMBINES ITS ENERGY
AND MOISTURE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. IF THIS WERE TO
HAPPEN...AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE SUGGESTING...A WIDE
SWATH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE COULD SPREAD ACROSS THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SCENARIO WOULD MAKE FOR
A VERY WET END TO THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE THE
FORECAST ISSUE OF MOST INTEREST IN THE EXTENDED...AND WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY TO SEE HOW EVERYTHING PANS OUT BY WEEKS END. IN
THE MEANTIME...HOWEVER...HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT
SOME SORT OF BOUNDARY WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS OR VERY NEAR THE AREA
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
THAT BEING SAID...DECIDED TO GO WITH A GENERAL 30 TO 40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY AND NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BEING THE PEAK TIME FOR CONVECTION.
THE QUESTION MARK FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT A
SLUG OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS PRESENT TO FUEL FURTHER SHOWER AND
STORM ACTIVITY. IF THIS OCCURS...WE COULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND SUNDAY. AS
IT STANDS...THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH
THE FRONT TO SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY THIS WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK AS
WELL. DAILY HIGHS OVERALL SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME LOCATIONS ON WEDNESDAY COULD EVEN TOP 90
DEGREES AS THE RIDGE FIRST BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S ON AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP...FAVORING
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES INCLUDING KSYM. THESE STORMS WILL REMAIN
WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE...BUT BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW
VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WHERE THEY OCCUR. AS HAS
BEEN THE PATTERN LATELY...THESE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING ONLY TO REFIRE BY MIDDAY TUESDAY AGAIN FAVORING
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. ASIDE FROM THE STORMS...SOME PATCHY VALLEY
FOG WILL AGAIN DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AND IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVE SOME RAIN.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ABE
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...ABE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
635 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 634 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
WE ARE CURRENTLY WATCHING A BAND OF CONVECTION STRETCHING WEST
FROM CHICAGO. THIS IS PARALLEL TO MODERATE WESTERLY EFFECTIVE SHEAR
AROUND 35 KNOTS SEEN WITH AREA PROFILERS AND SPC MESOANALYSIS.
12Z DTX SOUNDING INDICATED VERY ANOMALOUS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 1.46 INCHES /GREATER THAN 90TH PERCENTILE/. THIS HIGH
RAINFALL EFFICIENCY ENVIRONMENT HAS BEEN SUPPORTED BY SEVERAL
REPORTS OF RAINFALL RATES EXCEEDING 2 INCHES PER HOUR THIS
AFTERNOON.
GREATEST PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON FELL JUST SOUTH OF I-94 IN
VAN BUREN...KALAMAZOO AND PARTS OF CALHOUN COUNTIES. RECENT RUNS
OF THE HRRR SHOW CHICAGO PRECIPITATION MOVING EAST INTO THIS
GENERAL AREA WITH SOME DISCRETE CELLS FORMING AHEAD OF THE MAIN
AREA. SOME CLEARING OVER INDIANA NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE COULD
ALLOW EXTRA EVENING INSOLATION TO ADD TO THE 1000+ J/KG MUCAPE
ALREADY BEING ESTIMATED OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MI PER SPC
MESOANALYSIS GRAPHICS. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING COULD ASSIST IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE DISCRETE CELLS.
WITH AN OVERLAP OF 35+ KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR...MUCAPE > 1000 J/KG...
DEWPOINTS IN 70S WITH ATTENDANT LOW DEPRESSIONS...AND UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION...THERE
REMAINS A NON-ZERO THREAT FOR TORNADOES EARLY TONIGHT.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
THE AREA WILL SEE A WET PERIOD THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS
TONIGHT AS A VERY MOIST AND HUMID AIR MASS COLLIDES WITH A COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY
AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH SOME SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS. A BIGGER THREAT IS FLOODING WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ON TOP OF
SATURATED SOILS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.
THE AREA WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR
TUESDAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL THEN BECOME POSSIBLE
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRIES TO APPROACH THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
OUR MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS ON THE PERIOD THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING THROUGH AND THE FLOOD AND
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THAT EXISTS. WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO DEAL WITH
PCPN CHCS COMING BACK IN FOR WED AND WED NIGHT.
WE ARE SEEING THE SECOND LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS THAT
WAS NEAR THE MS RIVER EARLIER NOW MOVING INTO THE CWFA. THE SEVERE
THREAT HAS LESSENED A LITTLE BIT ACROSS THE CWFA AS INSTABILITY HAS
BEEN TEMPERED WITH THE CLOUDS AND PCPN THAT HAS MOVED THROUGH. THAT
SAID...THERE IS STILL OVER 1000 J/KG OF CAPE AVAILABLE AND EFFECTIVE
WIND SHEAR IS 30-40 KNOTS...SO SOME MARGINAL LARGE HAIL AND WIND IS
STILL POSSIBLE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE FLOODING POTENTIAL DOWN SOUTH CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.
WITH UP TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN AT SOME LOCATIONS OVER THE WEEKEND...AND
LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS ALREADY OBSERVED TODAY IN SOME TRAINING OF
STORMS CONTINUES TO JUSTIFY THE THREAT. PWATS UP AROUND 2 INCHES...A
DEEP AND MOIST COLUMN WITH PROVIDE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES AT
TIMES.
WE WILL SEE ONE LAST WAVE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE THROUGH THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. A DECENT COLD FRONT NOW
MOVING THROUGH WI IS ACTING ON THE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS
IN PLACE ALONG WITH LARGER SCALE LIFT VIA THE RRQ OF THE UPPER JET
NORTH OF THE AREA. WE EXPECT THAT THIS PCPN WILL MOVE OUT AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS MOVES IN.
TUESDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A COOLER AND DRIER DAY AS WE WILL SEE
THE WARM AND MOIST AXIS SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING WHAT SHOULD BE A NICE DAY ACROSS THE
AREA.
THE FRONT THAT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL THEN TRY TO MOVE BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AS ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE TRIES TO LIFT OUT
INTO THE AREA. THE GENERAL TREND OF THE MODELS HAS BEEN TO SUPPRESS
THE FRONT SOUTH TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER AND KEEP THE JUICY AIR MASS
DOWN THERE WITH THE UPPER JET A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. WE STILL COULD
SEE SOME PCPN AT THAT TIME AS WAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER
FLOW UP HERE. THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT JUST LOOKS A BIT LESS AT THIS
TIME FOR WED NIGHT AND THU.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
EXTENDED FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST TRANSITION FROM SEMI-ZONAL FLOW MID
WEEK TO NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR MOST OF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE THE
STRONGER SYSTEM APPROACHES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
THE REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO COULD IMPACT WEST MICHIGAN. MODELS AT THIS TIME ABSORB
THE SYSTEM INTO THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BEFORE IT
REACHES THE WOLVERINE STATE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS TAF SITES IN
WESTERN MICHIGAN LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. HRRR AND RAP ARE IN AGREEMENT
SHOWING THIS ACTIVITY ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BY
SUNRISE TUESDAY.
CONCERNED ABOUT FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL BE OPTIMISTIC
AND RELY ON DRIER AIRMASS TO WIN OUT OVER SURFACE MOISTURE.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
WE HAVE LEFT THE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS IS FOR THE TIME BEING.
MOST WEB CAMS ALONG THE COAST SHOW QUITE A BIT OF FOG STILL HOLDING
IN. SOUTH HAVEN HAS SEEN SOME IMPROVEMENT AT THE COAST...HOWEVER WE
WILL LEAVE IT FOR THE TIME BEING WITH PLENTY OF FOG ELSEWHERE. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT AS STORMS MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING THAT THE FOG MAY
MIX OUT SOME. WE WILL MONITOR THE SITUATION FOR A POSSIBLE EXTENSION
OF THE HEADLINE.
OTHERWISE...WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY WIND/WAVE HEADLINES THROUGH
MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH WINDS GENERALLY STAYING BELOW 20
KNOTS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
BIGGEST RISK OF AREAL FLOODING TODAY IS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94...
WHERE CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
PUT DOWN OVER 2 INCHES IN SPOTS. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF MODERATE
STRATIFORM TO HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAIN ARE EXPECTED THERE. ELSEWHERE...
SCATTERED HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL POP UP AND
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME. SOILS ARE
BECOMING INCREASINGLY SATURATED AFTER THE PAST FEW DAYS OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN... SO LESS RAIN WILL CAUSE GREATER IMPACTS THAN
USUAL.
MULTIPLE RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT AND MORE MAY BE ON THE
WAY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS RIVER LEVELS AT SOME SITES CONTINUE TO
CLIMB. SMALLER RIVERS THAT HAVE QUICKER RESPONSE... SUCH AS THE
LOOKING GLASS AND SYCAMORE CREEK... ARE ON THEIR WAY BACK DOWN.. BUT
ARE STILL AT THE MERCY OF ANY LOCAL HEAVY RAIN THAT FALLS TONIGHT.
DEEP TROPICAL AIR MASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2
INCHES IS IN PLACE FROM SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THESE PW VALUES ARE AT LEAST EAST 90TH PERCENTILE TO NEAR
RECORD FOR MID JUNE. AS A RESULT... RAINFALL PRODUCTION IN SHOWERS
AND STORMS HAS BEEN VERY EFFICIENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
ANOTHER WAVE ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE THE AREA WITH ANOTHER
POTENTIAL SHOT OF HEAVY RAINFALL... WITH THE MOST LIKELY TARGET
BEING SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91L IN
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL HEAD OUR WAY LATER IN THE WEEK. HOW
MUCH OF THIS ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS CONVERTED TO PRECIPITATION
REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN... THOUGH SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AGAIN STANDS
THE GREATEST RISK FOR MORE HEAVY RAIN.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MIZ059-064>067-
071>074.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...TJT
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...MWS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...NJJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
THE AREA WILL SEE A WET PERIOD THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS
TONIGHT AS A VERY MOIST AND HUMID AIR MASS COLLIDES WITH A COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY
AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH SOME SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS. A BIGGER THREAT IS FLOODING WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ON TOP OF
SATURATED SOILS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.
THE AREA WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR
TUESDAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL THEN BECOME POSSIBLE
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRIES TO APPROACH THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
OUR MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS ON THE PERIOD THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING THROUGH AND THE FLOOD AND
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THAT EXISTS. WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO DEAL WITH
PCPN CHCS COMING BACK IN FOR WED AND WED NIGHT.
WE ARE SEEING THE SECOND LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS THAT
WAS NEAR THE MS RIVER EARLIER NOW MOVING INTO THE CWFA. THE SEVERE
THREAT HAS LESSENED A LITTLE BIT ACROSS THE CWFA AS INSTABILITY HAS
BEEN TEMPERED WITH THE CLOUDS AND PCPN THAT HAS MOVED THROUGH. THAT
SAID...THERE IS STILL OVER 1000 J/KG OF CAPE AVAILABLE AND EFFECTIVE
WIND SHEAR IS 30-40 KNOTS...SO SOME MARGINAL LARGE HAIL AND WIND IS
STILL POSSIBLE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE FLOODING POTENTIAL DOWN SOUTH CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.
WITH UP TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN AT SOME LOCATIONS OVER THE WEEKEND...AND
LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS ALREADY OBSERVED TODAY IN SOME TRAINING OF
STORMS CONTINUES TO JUSTIFY THE THREAT. PWATS UP AROUND 2 INCHES...A
DEEP AND MOIST COLUMN WITH PROVIDE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES AT
TIMES.
WE WILL SEE ONE LAST WAVE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE THROUGH THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. A DECENT COLD FRONT NOW
MOVING THROUGH WI IS ACTING ON THE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS
IN PLACE ALONG WITH LARGER SCALE LIFT VIA THE RRQ OF THE UPPER JET
NORTH OF THE AREA. WE EXPECT THAT THIS PCPN WILL MOVE OUT AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS MOVES IN.
TUESDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A COOLER AND DRIER DAY AS WE WILL SEE
THE WARM AND MOIST AXIS SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING WHAT SHOULD BE A NICE DAY ACROSS THE
AREA.
THE FRONT THAT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL THEN TRY TO MOVE BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AS ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE TRIES TO LIFT OUT
INTO THE AREA. THE GENERAL TREND OF THE MODELS HAS BEEN TO SUPPRESS
THE FRONT SOUTH TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER AND KEEP THE JUICY AIR MASS
DOWN THERE WITH THE UPPER JET A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. WE STILL COULD
SEE SOME PCPN AT THAT TIME AS WAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER
FLOW UP HERE. THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT JUST LOOKS A BIT LESS AT THIS
TIME FOR WED NIGHT AND THU.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
EXTENDED FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST TRANSITION FROM SEMI-ZONAL FLOW MID
WEEK TO NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR MOST OF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE THE
STRONGER SYSTEM APPROACHES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
THE REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO COULD IMPACT WEST MICHIGAN. MODELS AT THIS TIME ABSORB
THE SYSTEM INTO THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BEFORE IT
REACHES THE WOLVERINE STATE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS TAF SITES IN
WESTERN MICHIGAN LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. HRRR AND RAP ARE IN AGREEMENT
SHOWING THIS ACTIVITY ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BY
SUNRISE TUESDAY.
CONCERNED ABOUT FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL BE OPTIMISTIC
AND RELY ON DRIER AIRMASS TO WIN OUT OVER SURFACE MOISTURE.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
WE HAVE LEFT THE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS IS FOR THE TIME BEING.
MOST WEB CAMS ALONG THE COAST SHOW QUITE A BIT OF FOG STILL HOLDING
IN. SOUTH HAVEN HAS SEEN SOME IMPROVEMENT AT THE COAST...HOWEVER WE
WILL LEAVE IT FOR THE TIME BEING WITH PLENTY OF FOG ELSEWHERE. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT AS STORMS MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING THAT THE FOG MAY
MIX OUT SOME. WE WILL MONITOR THE SITUATION FOR A POSSIBLE EXTENSION
OF THE HEADLINE.
OTHERWISE...WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY WIND/WAVE HEADLINES THROUGH
MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH WINDS GENERALLY STAYING BELOW 20
KNOTS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
BIGGEST RISK OF AREAL FLOODING TODAY IS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94...
WHERE CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
PUT DOWN OVER 2 INCHES IN SPOTS. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF MODERATE
STRATIFORM TO HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAIN ARE EXPECTED THERE. ELSEWHERE...
SCATTERED HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL POP UP AND
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME. SOILS ARE
BECOMING INCREASINGLY SATURATED AFTER THE PAST FEW DAYS OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN... SO LESS RAIN WILL CAUSE GREATER IMPACTS THAN
USUAL.
MULTIPLE RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT AND MORE MAY BE ON THE
WAY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS RIVER LEVELS AT SOME SITES CONTINUE TO
CLIMB. SMALLER RIVERS THAT HAVE QUICKER RESPONSE... SUCH AS THE
LOOKING GLASS AND SYCAMORE CREEK... ARE ON THEIR WAY BACK DOWN.. BUT
ARE STILL AT THE MERCY OF ANY LOCAL HEAVY RAIN THAT FALLS TONIGHT.
DEEP TROPICAL AIR MASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2
INCHES IS IN PLACE FROM SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THESE PW VALUES ARE AT LEAST EAST 90TH PERCENTILE TO NEAR
RECORD FOR MID JUNE. AS A RESULT... RAINFALL PRODUCTION IN SHOWERS
AND STORMS HAS BEEN VERY EFFICIENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
ANOTHER WAVE ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE THE AREA WITH ANOTHER
POTENTIAL SHOT OF HEAVY RAINFALL... WITH THE MOST LIKELY TARGET
BEING SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91L IN
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL HEAD OUR WAY LATER IN THE WEEK. HOW
MUCH OF THIS ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS CONVERTED TO PRECIPITATION
REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN... THOUGH SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AGAIN STANDS
THE GREATEST RISK FOR MORE HEAVY RAIN.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MIZ059-064>067-
071>074.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...MWS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...NJJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
136 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD BRING FAIR WEATHER ON TUESDAY BUT RAINS MAY RETURN
FOR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1124 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
WE HAVE UPDATED A COUPLE OF THINGS WITH THE FCST THIS MORNING...
INCLUDING BUMPING RAIN CHCS UP TO CATEGORICAL AND ISSUING A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SRN TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES AND CLINTON COUNTY
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WE HAVE TWO WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE POISED TO
MOVE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWFA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FIRST ONE
IS JUST MOVING INTO OUR LAKESHORE COUNTIES AS OF 15Z. THE SECOND
HAS JUST MOVED EAST OF THE MS RIVER AND SHOULD BE IN HERE AROUND
MID AFTERNOON GIVEN ITS CURRENT MOTION.
MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE MAINLY SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDER WITH THESE LINES DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH THE
CLOUDS...FOG...AND RAIN MOVING IN. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE
ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THESE BANDS OVER THE SRN TWO ROWS OF THE
CWFA. THERE IS ALREADY 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE AVAILABLE...WHICH
IS BASED CLOSE TO THE SFC. WE EXPECT THE STORMS TO INTENSIFY A BIT
AS THEY TAP THIS INSTABILITY.
FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL AS LIKELY THE BIGGEST
THREAT...WITH SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
POSSIBLE IN A WET MICROBURST. CAPE IS NOT EXCEPTIONALLY THICK IN
APPEARANCE...BUT BIG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL. EFFECTIVE BULK LAYER SHEAR IS AROUND 30-35 KNOTS...
SUPPORTIVE OF SOME ORGANIZED STORMS.
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED WHERE HEAVIER RAIN FELL OVER
THE PAST WEEKEND WHICH WILL BE THE SAME AREA THAT SEES THE
HEAVIEST RAINS TODAY. THE THINNER APPEARANCE OF THE
CAPE...COMBINED WITH PWATS OF 2.00 INCHES ADVECTING IN AND DEEP
MOISTURE DEFINITELY SUPPORTS A HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING THREAT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 621 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
DENSE FOG HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD SO AN ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR
ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD MITIGATE DENSE
FOG FORMATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
ANOTHER DAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT EXISTS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR IS AROUND 35 KNOTS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW LONG SKINNY CAPE. A FEW STRONG UPDRAFTS COULD PERSIST AND
BRING HAIL AND WIND THREAT...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CLOSED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS OPENS UP AND
MOVES EAST OVER THE TOP OF SE CONUS UPPER HIGH BY THIS EVENING AND
IS EVENTUALLY ABSORBED INTO EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGHING. THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS ARRIVES IN THE AFTERNOON AND SHOULD HELP
DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION.
STORMS WILL DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WITH CANADIAN SFC HIGH BUILDING IN FOR
TUESDAY WITH LOWER DEW POINTS AND SOME WELCOME DRYING. THIS WILL
BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST ON WEDNESDAY
WITH MOIST RETURN FLOW AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
ASCENT HELPING TO FOCUS SHOWERS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG
AND OUT AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FORECAST FOR LATE THIS WEEK
IS VERY TRICKY DUE LARGELY TO SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EVOLUTION
OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS WEEK.
AT THIS TIME THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR THE WEAK FRONT TO CLEAR
OUR AREA BY THURSDAY ALLOWING A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO GRADUALLY
NUDGE IN FROM THE NW AND BRING FAIR WX THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS
NOTION IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST ECMWF AS WELL. THE FOCUS OF MOST
IF NOT ALL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE IN THE WEEK WOULD
THEN STAY SOUTH OF OUR AREA ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY
REGIONS WHERE REMNANTS OF THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM COULD ALSO
COME INTO PLAY BY LATE FRIDAY AND NEXT WEEKEND.
AT THIS TIME WE WILL STILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS LATE THIS WEEK TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH OUR PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE
WX PATTERN AND POTENTIAL TROPICAL REMNANT MOISTURE THAT FAR OUT IN
TIME. FUTURE SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO TREND THE FCST FOR
THURSDAY/FRIDAY DRIER IF THESE GUIDANCE TRENDS CONTINUE.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE RATHER CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG
RANGE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS TAF SITES IN
WESTERN MICHIGAN LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. HRRR AND RAP ARE IN AGREEMENT
SHOWING THIS ACTIVITY ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BY
SUNRISE TUESDAY.
CONCERNED ABOUT FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL BE OPTIMISTIC
AND RELY ON DRIER AIRMASS TO WIN OUT OVER SURFACE MOISTURE.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1124 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
WE HAVE EXPANDED THE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXTEND THE REST
OF THE WAY DOWN THE NEARSHORE WATERS BASED ON THE WEB CAMS ON SOUTH
HAVEN BUOY AND AT THE SHORE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 4 INCHES HAS FALLEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SINCE
YESTERDAY. SOME AREAL FLOOD IMPACTS WERE OBSERVED UNDER THE HEAVIEST
BANDS OF RAINFALL... BUT THE CONCERN SHIFTS TOWARD RIVERS OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS... AS WELL AS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED MONDAY AND
MID-WEEK.
RIVER FLOOD HEADLINES ARE ONGOING FOR FOUR RIVERS IN THE UPPER
PORTION OF THE GRAND BASIN AND ITS TRIBUTARIES. PERSONS WITH
INTERESTS ALONG THE RIVERS AT DEWITT/EAGLE... IONIA... HASTINGS...
AND HOLT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR RIVER LEVELS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
AS RIVERS ARE ALREADY OUT OF THEIR BANKS OR EXPECTED TO BE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM MICHIGAN TO LOUISIANA ARE RUNNING AT
LEAST 90TH PERCENTILE TO NEAR RECORD FOR MID JUNE. THIS DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAM RIDING UP THE BACKSIDE OF THE SE CONUS
ANTICYCLONE WILL MAKE HEAVY RAIN A CONTINUING CONCERN AS ADDITIONAL
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. CONVECTION MONDAY WILL
BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS AS WAS THE CONVECTION SUNDAY
MORNING. ALSO OF NOTE IS INVEST 91L NEAR THE YUCATAN... WHICH WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE US GULF COAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AND SPREAD
MOISTURE TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY... POSSIBLY THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES... FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. SATURATED SOIL AND HIGH RUNNING RIVER
LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA WILL MAKE US MORE SUSCEPTIBLE THAN USUAL TO
ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. BOTTOM LINE... FLOODING WILL HAVE TO SHARE
THE STAGE WITH SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MIZ059-064>067-
071>074.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...MWS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...OSTUNO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
113 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 709 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
LATEST WEB CAMS SHOW MOST OF THE FOG NEAR THE LK SUP SHORE HAS
CLEARED AWAY. SO CUT DOWN ON FOG COVERAGE TO JUST PATCHY IN THIS
AREA. CANX THE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVYS ALONG LK SUP EARLIER TO
ACCOUNT FOR THESE TRENDS. AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...PERSIST
NEAR LK MI AND THE BAY OF GREEN BAY. THIS FOG IS NOT LIKELY TO BURN
OFF UNTIL MID TO LATE MRNG WHEN DAYTIME HEATING WL HAVE A GREATER
IMPACT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE
UPR TROF AXIS SHIFTING E THRU THE NRN PLAINS ON THE WRN FLANK OF
RETREATING UPR RDG OVER QUEBEC/NEW ENGLAND. UPR MI IS CURRENTLY
DOMINATED BY DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVC AND STABLE AIRMASS DEPICTED ON THE
00Z GRB RAOB...WHICH SHOWS A SHARP INVRN BTWN ABOUT H8-75 AND KINX
OF -3C...SO THERE IS NO PCPN. BUT WITH LINGERING LLVL MSTR...LO CLDS
PERSIST E OF A LINE FM MUNISING TO ESCANABA OR SO...WITH SOME PATCHY
FOG OVER THE W WITH JUST SOME HI CLDS SPREADING E WELL IN ADVANCE OF
SFC COLD FNT STRETCHING FM NW ONTARIO INTO MN. THERE ARE A FEW
SHOWERS OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD STRETCHING TOWARD MPX THAT ARE MOVING
INTO FAR WRN LK SUP AND EVEN A LTG STRIKE OR TWO JUST S OF DULUTH...
BUT TRACK OF STRONGER SHRTWV INTO FAR NW ONTARIO...NOCTURNAL
COOLING/LIMITED MUCAPE NO MORE THAN ABOUT 100 J/KG...AND LIMITED
MSTR RETURN AHEAD OF THE FNT PER THE 00Z MPX RAOB...WHERE THE H925
AND H85 WINDS WERE SW AT ONLY 5 KTS...IS LIMITING THE COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS. MUCH DRIER AIR IS PRESENT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...SO THERE ARE NOTHING MORE THAN SOME PATCHY CLDS ALONG A
SECOND COLD FNT MOVING INTO FAR NW MN.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SHOWERS/TS AS LEADING SFC COLD FNT CROSSES UPR MI DURING PERIOD OF
DAYTIME HEATING.
TODAY...LEADING SFC COLD FNT IS FCST TO MOVE INTO THE FAR WRN LAND
CWA EARLY THIS MRNG. DESPITE THE NEGATIVE FACTORS LISTED ABOVE...
THERE WL BE AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS AS MODELS FCST AN AREA OF
STRONGER DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA OVER THE
INCOMING FNT. TO THE E...THERE WL BE SOME PATCHY FOG THAT IS LOCALLY
DENSE ESPCIALLY NEAR THE LK SHORES THIS MRNG...BUT ARRIVAL OF
THICKER MID/HI CLDS AND THEN DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CAUSE THIS FOG
TO DISSIPATE EXCEPT NEAR THE SHORES. AS THE FNT PRESSES TO THE E
THRU THE DAY IN THE PRESENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING AND UNDER THE DEEP
LYR FORCING...MODELS INDICATE THIS BNDRY WL ENCOUNTER INCRSG MUCAPE
IN THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE OVER THE SCENTRAL WHEN IT ARRIVES THERE
NEAR 18Z. SINCE THE HIER RES MODELS INDICATE THERE WL BE SOME
GREATER LLVL CNVGC AS THE FNT ENCOUNTERS SOME LK BREEZE BNDRYS
THERE...WL MAINTAIN THE HIER CHC POPS IN THIS AREA...WHERE MAX TEMPS
WL AT LEAST APRCH 80 IN THE PRESENCE OF H85 TEMPS IN THE 13-14C
RANGE. DURING THE AFTN OVER THE W...EXPECT SKIES TO TURN MOSUNNY AS
THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FROPA.
TNGT...ALTHOUGH THE TRAILING SECOND FNT IS FCST TO CROSS UPR MI THIS
EVNG...EARLIER EXIT OF THE DEEPER MSTR INDICATES THERE WL BE ONLY
PATCHY CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS BNDRY. UNDER MOCLR
SKIES...EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 40S AT MOST PLACES AS H85
TEMPS TUMBLE AS LO AS 4C OVER THE NW CWA BY 12Z TUE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...WITH OFF AND ON LIGHT SHOWERS.
BY 12Z TUESDAY THE SFC HIGH OVER MN WILL BE SHIFTING INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. WILL START OFF THE PERIOD DRY...WITH THE HIGH DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...AND EXITING ACROSS E UPPER MI BY
06Z. PW VALUES BOTTOM OUT AROUND 0.5 OVER THE E HALF OF THE CWA
EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. KEPT THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT
RIGHT AROUND 40F OVER THE E. HOWEVER...WITH HIGH CLOUDS ROLLING IN W
AND CENTRAL...TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S WILL BE COMMON
ELSEWHERE.
SHOWERS WILL APPROACH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE FAR SW...AND
EXPAND CENTRAL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY TO OUR S...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT
SLIGHT CHANCE TS MAINLY NEAR THE WI BORDER. EVEN THAT MAY BE A BIT
OVERDONE. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE MONITOR FOR FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS.
UPPER MI WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE MAIN LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AND A
SECONDARY LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY. THE
NORTHERLY COLD FRONT WILL DRAG ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING LATER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. WAA ON FRIDAY /30KT 850MB WINDS OFF THE 15/00Z ECMWF/ WILL
HELP TEMPS REBOUND IN TO UPPER 60S. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES
WITH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION LIKELY BEING THE BEST
CHOICE AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
WITH THE COLD FRONT ALREADY THROUGH THE WESTERN TAF...NOT EXPECTING
ANY SHRA THERE AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE FCST PD.
SCT -SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WL IMPACT SAW OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS INTO MID AFTN. EXPECT SHRA TO LOWER CIGS TO MVFR FOR A BRIEF
TIME BEFORE DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT LEADS TO VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE
REST OF THE FCST PD. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 25KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TROUGH
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SLOWLY EXIT E TODAY...ALONG WITH MUCH OF
THE LINGERING FOG. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N PLAINS THIS EVENING WILL
BUILD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY...AND ACROSS ALL OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
A TROUGH WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS A LOW PUSHES
ACROSS N MANITOBA AND A LOW PASSES NEAR S LAKE MICHIGAN. HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS S CENTRAL CANADA AND THE N PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING
WILL BUILD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN OVER
THE REGION...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES LATE FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
312 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
THROUGH THIS EVENING...BREEZY NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
A PASSING COLD FRONT. SCATTERED/BROKEN CUMULUS WILL SPREAD THROUGH
NE MINNESOTA...AND THERE COULD BE ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN FORECAST AREA. ADDED THE SHOWERS AS
SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR AND HOPWRF HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE.
LATER TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND THE
DAKOTA WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT INTO MINNESOTA. THERE SHOULD BE
CLEARING OVERNIGHT...AND THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BECOME VERY LIGHT.
THIS WILL PROMOTE RADIATIONAL COOLING...SO LEANED ON THE COOLER
MODEL GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES. LOWS WILL LIKELY
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH THE COLDEST READINGS
ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. MIGHT NEED TO LOWER THE FORECAST EVEN
MORE.
TUESDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN THE DAY OVER
CENTRAL/NORTHERN MINNESOTA...AND IT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST
THROUGH THE DAY. SUNNY SKIES WILL GREET THE NORTHLAND AT SUNRISE
AND THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT THERE SHOULD BE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER FROM THE WEST AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.
SHOWERS COULD SPREAD INTO THE NORTHLAND FROM THE WEST...BEGINNING
IN THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION...LATE IN THE DAY. MOST MODEL
GUIDANCE PRIMARILY HOLDS OFF PCPN UNTIL THE EVENING...AFTER 00Z.
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WED MORNING...BRINGING
RAIN SHOWERS TO A GOOD PORTION OF THE NORTHLAND. AT THIS TIME THE
BULK OF THE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH. A
WEDGE OF DRY AIR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SIT OVER THE NRN GREAT
LAKES AND WRN ONTARIO REGION AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES AND SHUNT
THE TRACK OF THE LOW TO THE SOUTH. KEEPING THE NRN THIRD OF THE
CWA MOSTLY DRY. BY WED AFTERNOON...AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH SRN WI
A STRONGER SURGE OF UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE LIFTED INTO THE AREA AND
POSSIBLY TRIGGER A FEW T-STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
WED NIGHT AS A SECONDARY WEAK FRONT SLIDES ACROSS FAR NE MN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN ON THURSDAY AND THUR NIGHT...BUT MOVE
RAPIDLY TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY AS THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARRIVES ALONG A WARM FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND WITH THE
MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S AND 70S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT...SO AT THIS TIME THERE IS NO INDICATION
OF ANY SORT OF A SIGNIFICANT LAKE BREEZE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING IN ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA. A THICK DECK
OF STRATO-CU HAS MOVED IN ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE MN THIS
AFTERNOON...AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND
INL...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN 18Z TAF.
GUSTY NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND SKIES WILL
CLEAR OFF. ANOTHER ROUND OF LATE MORNING STRATO-CU WILL DEVELOP ON
TUESDAY JUST BEFORE 18Z...AND WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE
E/NE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 46 68 49 64 / 0 10 40 50
INL 38 70 48 70 / 10 0 20 10
BRD 45 69 52 69 / 10 30 70 50
HYR 43 72 53 67 / 0 0 40 60
ASX 48 68 50 64 / 0 0 30 50
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...TENTINGER
AVIATION...TENTINGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
1102 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
.UPDATE...OVERALL...THE GOING FORECAST IS IN DECENT SHAPE WITH
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR BEST PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SW/W AREAS WITH
THE EVOLUTION OF THE ACTIVITY SIMILAR TO THE PREV TWO DAYS. AFTER
FURTHER INVESTIGATION OF THE MOST RECENT DATA...HAVE TWEAKED POPS
ACROSS THE CWA FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE SW WAS INCREASED TO LIKELY
VALUES WHILE THE E HALF WAS LOWERED TO 20% (ISOLATED) AS THERE WILL
BE A STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA AND THE BEST MOISTURE
ALONG WITH THE FAVORED LOW LEVEL COLD POOL PROPAGATION WILL HELP
FOCUS PRECIP OVER THE SW/W. THERE IS ALREADY A NICE ARCHING BAND
OVER S LA WITH A MORE DISTINCT SE/NW MOTION. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED...BUT GUSTY STORMS ARE LIKELY DUE TO MOMENTUM TRANSFER AND
SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZED COLD POOLS SLIDING TO THE NW. THE WEATHER
GRIDS WERE TIGHTENED UP A BIT TO SHOW CLEANER TIMING AND POPS WERE
LOWERED FOR THIS EVE TO SHOW LESS ACTIVITY AND A QUICKER END TO
WHAT MAY BE LINGERING. /CME/
&&
.AVIATION...A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE.
LIFR/IFR CATEGORY STRATUS/FOG ARE MIXING OUT WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND EXPECT VFR CATEGORY CU FIELD TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. BETTER
AFTN TSRA CHANCES WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL BE AT GLH/JAN/HKS...MOST
LIKELY AFTER 2000Z AND DIMINISHING WITH SUNSET. LOOK FOR A REPEAT
OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LIFR/IFR STRATUS MIXING OUT BY LATE TUES
MORNING. /EC/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE BUILDING UPPER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SE CONUS WILL BE AN INCREASING FACTOR FOR
OUR REGION WHILE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AND SRLY FLOW FEEDS
TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION AND POINTS FURTHER W. DUE TO GOOD
LOW LEVEL SRLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND GOOD MOISTURE/THETA E
ADVECTION TODAY...EXPECT A SIMILAR PATTERN TO YESTERDAY WITH RAIN A
LITTLE FURTHER E THAN GUIDANCE MAY BE INDICATING. HRRR WAS PICKING
UP ON THIS IDEA TOO AND INTRODUCED SOME POPS IN THE NE ALSO. HEAVY
RAIN/GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON BUT DUE
TO MEAGER LAPSE RATES EXPECT MAINLY SUB SEVERE WIND GUSTS AS A LINE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP IN S MS AND PROGRESS TO THE W/NW. LOW
LEVEL FLOW AROUND 15-20KTS WITH SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE SW IS
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY SO ESPECIALLY IN SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA WE CAN
NOT RULE OUT POTENTIAL FOR A STRAY SEVERE STORM...BUT EVEN HERE THIS
POTENTIAL IS TOO CONDITIONAL TO MENTION IN THE HWO. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ALONG AND SW OF A LINE FROM GREENVILLE TO
MERIDIAN BUT WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME STORMS IN NE MS. AS WE PROGRESS
INTO TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
GRADUALLY EXPAND/BUILD TO THE W MORE INTO THE REGION AND GRADUALLY
SHIFT RAIN CHANCES FURTHER W WHILE PUSHING STORM CHANCES INTO THE
DELTA REGION AS WE PROGRESS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. DUE TO SOME
DECENT WIND FIELDS ALOFT AND SIMILAR THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ALONG/W
OF I-55 CORRIDOR...CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME STRONG STORMS AND POSSIBLY
A SEVERE STORM OR TWO MAINLY W OF THE MS RIVER ON TUESDAY.
TROPICS: MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL
TRACK OF THE DEVELOPING TROPICAL SFC LOW IN THE GULF AND THAT IT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NW AND MOVE AROUND THE THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING INTO OUR REGION. DUE TO SOME GRADUALLY
INCREASING WIND FIELDS IN THE W/SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR FOR ANY POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN/SEVERE WEATHER IF THE
RIDGE DOES NOT BUILD IN AS STRONG AND THE SYSTEM TURNS SLIGHTLY MORE
TO THE N THAN W/NW.
FOR FORECAST ELEMENTS...WENT NEAR MAV FOR HIGHS/LOWS BUT MADE SOME
SMALL CHANGES. LOWERED HIGHS IN THE CENTRAL/SW AREAS SLIGHTLY DUE TO
BETTER RAIN/STORM CHANCES AND SIMILAR FOR TOMORROW ALONG/W OF I-55
DUE TO CLOUDS/RAIN CHANCES TO THE W AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS
IN. SKY COVER WENT NEAR RAW GUIDANCE. /DC/
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...WHEREVER EXACTLY THE
SYSTEM CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN THE GULF MAKES LANDFALL IT WILL
LIKELY BE HEADED NORTH TOWARD THE ARKLATEX REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN THE PATH OF THE SYSTEM REMAINING WELL WEST OF OUR
REGION AS IT RECURVES INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM THROUGH LATER THIS
WEEK IS GROWING. ENHANCED TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING FAR TO
THE EAST OF THE CIRCULATION WILL PROBABLY CONCENTRATE LOCAL RAIN
CHANCES WEDNESDAY IN MY FAR WESTERN ZONES WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGING INFLUENCE EXPANDING IN FROM THE EAST TRYING TO DRY THINGS
OUT AND HEAT THINGS UP ELSEWHERE. NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY SOME LOCATIONS EAST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR COULD SEE HIGHS
IN THE MID 90S ON WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS
MAY START BREAKING DOWN JUST A BIT WITH BETTER GULF MOISTURE
ADVECTION (DUE TO LESS RECIRCULATING OF DRY-ISH LOW LEVEL AIR)
CONTRIBUTING TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE TYPICALLY-
HOT 90 TO 94 DEGREE RANGE WITH PLENTY OF HUMIDITY TO INCREASE PEAK
INDICES TO NEAR 100.
MODEL CONSENSUS STILL SUGGESTS A DECENT COLD FRONT GAINING STEAM IN
THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST THIS COMING WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS
UNFORTUNATELY UNCERTAINTY NOW ON WHETHER IT WILL MAKE IT THIS FAR
SOUTH. IF IT DOES NOT GET THIS FAR SOUTH THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HEAT
TO REALLY BUILD GOING INTO NEXT WEEK WITH NOT ENOUGH RAIN AROUND TO
COOL THINGS OFF MUCH. LET US HOPE THE FRONT MAKES IT HERE. /BB/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 91 72 92 72 / 23 6 18 10
MERIDIAN 92 69 92 71 / 17 4 10 8
VICKSBURG 91 72 90 73 / 37 7 26 17
HATTIESBURG 91 73 92 71 / 26 4 18 8
NATCHEZ 89 73 88 73 / 56 17 29 16
GREENVILLE 93 74 91 74 / 31 6 24 21
GREENWOOD 92 73 92 73 / 24 6 13 13
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
CME/EC/DC/BB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
300 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...STRONG AND DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES AND CAROLINAS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...
CURRENT OBS SHOW THAT THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY IS ON TRACK AND
SEVERAL HIGH TEMP RECORDS HAVE BEEN BROKEN (RDU AND FAY). WILL LET
THE ADVISORY CONTINUE AS-IS THROUGH 7 PM WHEN IT`S SET TO END.
OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE IN PATTERN TONIGHT WITH THE 594 H5 RIDGE
PARKED OVER THE SOUTHEAST. LATEST HRRR STILL SHOWS THAT THE BEST
CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED PASSING SHOWER WILL BE MOSTLY TO OUR NORTH
AND NORTHEAST. WILL LEAN TOWARD PERSISTENCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT...
AROUND 70 NW TO MID 70S SE/E.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...
PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SETUP
OVER US DURING THE DAYTIME TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE AVG BL TEMP A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER...SO PERHAPS WE`LL SEE A
FEW MORE 100+ DEGREE READINGS THAN WE`VE SEEN TODAY. AS SUCH...THE
MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE HEAT WITH HEAT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS OVER A GOOD PORTION OF OUR CWA. WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE
THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR TUESDAY FOR THE SAME COUNTIES AS TODAY...
BASICALLY OUR ENTIRE CWA EXCEPT FOR THE TRIAD.
LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE H5 RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN
AND SHIFT SOUTH AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. NEARLY ALL CAMS SHOW
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ASSOC WITH THE SHORT WAVE AND ITS BOUNDARY
REMAINING TO OUR NORTH AND DISSIPATING BEFORE CROSSING THE VA
BORDER. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO OUR NORTH...AS
THEY MAY WARRANT A VERY LOW-END POP ACROSS OUR VA BORDER ZONES AS
THEY PUSH SOUTH...OTHERWISE...THE CWA SHOULD STAY MOSTLY DRY. LOWS
IN THE LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WILL PERSIST MORE-OR-
LESS AS-IS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH CENTRAL NC LOCATED
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...AT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
OF THE WESTERLIES. DUE TO THIS PRECARIOUS POSITION (INTERFACE
BETWEEN THE RIDGE/WESTERLIES)...FORECAST SPECIFICS WILL BE HIGHLY
SENSITIVE TO SMALL CHANGES IN THE ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE AND/OR
AMPLITUDE OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVES. AS A RESULT...CONFIDENCE IN
FORECAST SPECIFICS IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE...PARTICULARLY WITH REGARD
TO CONVECTIVE TIMING/COVERAGE. LATER IN THE EXTENDED...THE 12Z
ECMWF/GFS BOTH INDICATE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS (AND POSSIBLE
TROPICAL CYCLONE REMNANTS) WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE RIDGE
SAT/SUN...WITH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT (AND SOME RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT) EVOLVING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL
INDICATE HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S WED-FRI...MID 90S SAT/SUN...AND
LOW/MID 90S EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A 30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
EACH DAY...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER ON FRI/SAT. -VINCENT
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...
WITH THE PERSISTENT RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHEAST...LOOK FOR
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT W-NW SFC WINDS TO CONTINUE DURING THE 24
HOUR TAF PERIOD.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WILL COME THURSDAY MORNING WITH POSSIBLE STRATUS...AND
LATER IN THE WEEK DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ASSOC WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
REC HI
DAY MAX YR MIN YR
RDU RECORDS
06/15 97 1981 76 1899
06/16 98 1981 75 1998
06/17 99 1961 75 2004
06/18 98 1944 75 1935
GSO RECORDS
06/15 97 1926 73 1981
06/16 96 1914 73 2004
06/17 98 1944 76 2004
06/18 100 1944 73 1970
FAY RECORDS
06/15 98 1981 76 1926
06/16 100 1981 77 1998
06/17 101 1981 77 1945
06/18 102 1944 76 2004
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ007>011-
023>028-039>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ007>011-
023>028-039>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...RAH
CLIMATE...MLM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1226 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE WORST OF THE HEAT WAVE IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TUESDAY.
SOMEWHAT LOWER TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO WEAKEN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
THIS WEEK WILL BE ISOLATED. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM MONDAY...MID 90S ARE WIDESPREAD AT NOON ACROSS THE
AREA WITH LUMBERTON ALREADY ALREADY REPORTING 97. VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWS THE FIRST FEW CUMULUS BUILDING UP ALONG THE WEST BANK OF THE
CAPE FEAR RIVER BETWEEN WILMINGTON AND SOUTHPORT...WITH A FEW MORE
NORTH OF BURGAW AND ELIZABETHTOWN. OTHER THAN A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO
TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER FORECASTS...OUR FORECAST CONTINUES
UNMODIFIED. DISCUSSION FROM 1000 AM FOLLOWS...
THE HEAT IS ON! 10 AM TEMPERATURES ARE 90 OR HIGHER IN
WILMINGTON...LUMBERTON AND FLORENCE...AND IT`S JUST GOING TO GET
WORSE OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS. APPLYING OBSERVED 2-DAY BIAS
CORRECTIONS TO GFS AND NAM MOS YIELDS ALMOST PRECISELY THE
TEMPERATURES OUR LAST SHIFT HAD IN THE FORECAST.
ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WILL BUILD TO 1000-2000 J/KG AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON THE ONLY TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION WILL BE THE
SEABREEZE. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD MAKE BETTER INLAND PROGRESS THAN
WE`VE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO WEAKER 100-850 MB
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS COUNTERING THE NATURAL MOVEMENT OF THE
BOUNDARY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MARGINAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT
THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER NEAR THE LCL/LFC...AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY TO BE VERY ISOLATED IN COVERAGE. DISCUSSION FROM 600 AM
FOLLOWS...
TODAY WILL BE MORE OPPRESSIVE THAN THE WEEKEND AND TUE LOOKS TO
BE THE PEAK OF THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVE.
THE HEAT INDEX WILL COMMONLY REACH 105 TO 107 DEG AND A FEW SPOTS
MAY TOP THAT FOR AN HOUR.
TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL RISE TO ABOUT 21 DEG C TODAY. THIS IS A DEG
HIGHER THAN ON SUN. ON SUN...INLAND THERMOMETERS REGISTERED UPPER
90S AND A FEW SPOTS...LIKE LBT...REACHED OR JUST EXCEEDED 100 DEG.
LOCATIONS NEARER TO THE COAST WERE ALSO HOT...MAINLY UPPER 90S WITH
LOWER TO MID 90S AT THE BEACHES. AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BUILD...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT LEAST AS HOT AS ON SUN IF NOT A
DEG OR TWO HIGHER IN MOST LOCATIONS. WE ARE FORECASTING WIDESPREAD
HIGHS AROUND 100 DEG INLAND. THE MORE COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 90S WITH LOWER TO MID 90S CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE
BEACHES. THE SEABREEZE SHOULD MAKE SOME INLAND PROGRESS GIVEN THE
LIGHT W TO SW FLOW IN THE LOWEST 3 K FT. HOWEVER...THIS WILL ONLY
SERVE TO KEEP COASTAL DEWPOINTS ELEVATED OR INCREASE THEM SLIGHTLY
WHICH WILL ONLY ADD TO THE DISCOMFORT LEVEL.
RECORD HIGHS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO REACH OR EXCEED TODAY...BUT THERE
IS A POSSIBILITY IN SOME LOCATIONS.
THE RECORD HIGH AT FLO IS 104 SET IN 1981 AND THE FORECAST HIGH FOR
TODAY IS 102.
THE RECORD HIGH AT ILM IS 100 SET IN 1880 AND THE FORECAST HIGH FOR
TODAY IS 99.
THE RECORD HIGH AT CRE IS 98 SET IN 2010 AND THE FORECAST HIGH FOR
TODAY IS 96.
TEMPS AFTER SUNSET WILL BE VERY WARM WITH MANY PLACES STILL IN THE
LOWER 80S AROUND MIDNIGHT. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE MID AND UPPER
70S AND THE BEACHES MAY NOT DROP BELOW 80 DEG.
AS THE HEAT HAS BUILT...THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR LESS IN THE WAY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH EACH PASSING DAY. THE SUBSIDENCE WILL
BE EVEN GREATER TODAY THAN ON SUN AND TEMPS IN THE MID LEVELS WILL
REMAIN SIMILAR. HOWEVER...VERY STRONG HEATING WILL INCREASE
INSTABILITY WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH 1500 TO
2000 J/KG. THUS WILL SHOW AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FOR
ONLY A SMALL PART OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE...PRIMARILY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEABREEZE WITH PERHAPS A
SPOTTY POP-UP THUNDERSTORM INLAND IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH. THE HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL IS ALSO SHOWING VERY LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...STRONG MID TO UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH MID WEEK CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH PLENTY
OF SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AT THE LOW
LEVELS THOUGH TO COMBINE WITH STRONG HEATING OF THE DAY TO PRODUCE
LOCALIZED CONVECTION ALONG SEA BREEZE...PIEDMONT TROUGH AND OTHER
CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES. WINDS UP THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY WEAK WITH A LIGHT STEERING FLOW OUT OF THE W-NW AND SFC
WINDS GENERALLY DOMINATED BY SEA/LAND BREEZE. IT WILL BE THE
SUBTLE CHANGES IN WINDS AND MOISTURE THAT WILL DICTATE THE CHANGE
IN CONVECTION EACH DAY. A FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE SOUTH WILL
NOT MAKE IT INTO THE AREA BUT SOME ADDED MOISTURE WILL ADVECT
SOUTHWARD MAY ADD TO CONVECTION ON WED WITH PCP WATER VALUES
REACHING UP CLOSER TO 2 INCHES POOLING ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE STRONG
RIDGE OVERHEAD AND H5 HEIGHTS UP NEAR 594 DM AS WELL AS A
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND. LOOKS LIKE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
AND 850 TEMPS WILL PEAK ON TUES AND THEREFORE EXPECT WARMEST TEMPS
THIS DAY WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING TEMPS CLOSER TO THE COAST NEAR 100
AND TEMPS INLAND A FEW DEGREES HIGHER. THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
WILL KEEP DEWPOINT TEMPS UP IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WHICH IN
TURN WILL PRODUCE VERY HIGH HEAT INDICES AND MAINTAIN VERY WARM
OVERNIGHT TEMPS. HEAT INDICES ON TUE WILL REACH HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA ONCE AGAIN BUT WED MY FALL JUST SHY. POTENTIAL FOR AN
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WILL EXIST ON TUES WITH HEAT INDICES UP TO
110F IN SPOTS. LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL UP IN THE 70S TO AROUND
80.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...RIDGE HOLDS TOUGH FOR THE MOST PART BUT DOES
GET SUPPRESSED SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND EAST ALLOWING FOR SOME H5 HEIGHT
FALLS AND POSSIBLY SOME PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW ALOFT TO RIDE
OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. OVERALL EXPECT VERY WARM WEATHER TO
CONTINUE WITH LOCALIZED CONVECTION MOST DAYS FOCUSED ALONG SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY AND PIEDMONT TROUGH. GFS DOES INDICATE A
SHORTWAVE PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE CAROLINAS ON SAT INTO SUN
WITH A STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT AND BETTER CHC FOR
CONVECTION SAT AFTN INTO THE EVE. TEMPS WILL RUN SLIGHTLY LOWER
TOWARDS THE WEEKEND WITH MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S AS COMPARED
TO MID 90S TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS
HOLDING CLOSER TO 70 OR SO...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO REMAIN IN
THE MID 70S MOST PLACES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...A VERY WARM AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE AIRMASS CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WITH A SEA
BREEZE IMPACTING THE COASTAL TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 01 TO 02 UTC.
THE LOCAL AND MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AT
6000 FEET.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH
AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM MONDAY...NO HINT OF THE SEABREEZE YET AT WRIGHTSVILLE
BEACH OR MYRTLE BEACH BUT IT`S SETTING UP NICELY IN WIND OBSERVATIONS
AND ON RADAR IMAGERY ALONG THE BRUNSWICK COUNTY COAST. NO
CHANGE ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST. DISCUSSION FROM 1000 AM FOLLOWS...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED WITH THIS MORNING UPDATE. WEST
WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BACK AROUND SOUTHERLY MUCH EARLIER THAN THEY
DID YESTERDAY SINCE THE WESTERLY WIND IN THE LOWEST 5000 FEET OF THE
ATMOSPHERE IS WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY. SEAS REMAIN ONLY 1-2 FEET
ACCORDING TO LATEST BUOY REPORTS...AND LATEST WEBCAM IMAGES SHOW THE
OCEAN IS FAIRLY GLASSY.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT PREVAILING WINDS WILL ALLOW
SEA/LAND BREEZE TO DOMINATE THE FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH MID
WEEK. A WEAKENED BOUNDARY MAY GET A PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO
PRODUCE A SHIFT IN WINDS TO THE N-NE AND EAST THROUGH WED. WINDS
WILL BE 10 TO 15 KT FOR THE MOST PART...BUT MAY BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER ON WED. SEAS BASICALLY 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A
LONGER PERIOD UP TO 11 SEC SOUTHEAST SWELL MIXING IN WITH THE
SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN WITH LAND/SEA
BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH DRIVING THE WINDS EACH AFTN/EVE. WINDS
MAY REACH UP TO 15 KT ON FRI PRODUCING A SLIGHT RISE IN SEAS UP
TO 3 TO 4 FT. GRADIENT TIGHTENS FURTHER HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND
AND SHOULD SEE SW WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KT BY SATURDAY WHICH IN
TURN SHOULD PUSH THE SEAS UP TO 3 TO 5 FT.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...
ALTHOUGH THIS MAY NOT BE RECORD-BREAKING HEAT IT`S STILL THE
FIRST TIME IN ALMOST 3 YEARS WE`VE HAD THESE KIND OF TEMPERATURES
IN THE FORECAST.
97 98 99 100 101 102 103
WILMINGTON 6/14/15 7/27/12 7/27/12 7/27/12 7/27/12 6/30/12 6/30/12
MYRTLE BEACH 6/14/15 7/24/12 7/28/05 7/27/05 7/27/05 8/17/54 8/17/54
FLORENCE 6/14/15 6/14/15 6/14/15 7/09/14 7/26/12 7/09/12 7/01/12
THIS IS ALSO AVAILABLE GRAPHICALLY ON OUR FACEBOOK & TWITTER PAGES
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ017-023-024-
032-033-039-053>056.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-099-
105>110.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...RJD/TRA
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DRH
CLIMATE...TRA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1112 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
WE WILL DO A QUICK UPDATE TO ADD ISOLATED SHOWERS TO NE ND AND NW
MN THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR AND OTHER CAM MODELS INDICATE SOME
SHALLOW CONVECTION AND SHOWERS...SO WILL ADD MENTION OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITH COLD POOL ALOFT. THERE IS NO INSTABILITY TO SPEAK
OF...WITH PERHAPS 100-200J/KG OF CAPE PERHAPS...SO CAN/T RULE OUT
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES...IT SHOULD MAINLY BE SHOWERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TEMPERATURES AND RAIN
CHANCES/COVERAGE LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH MAIN DIFFERENCES BEING NORTHWARD EXTENT OF RAIN
DURING NEXT EVENT.
FOR TODAY HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COOL AIRMASS WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S NORTH TO
UPPER 60S S WITH SHALLOW MOIST LAYER AOB 800MB SO EXPECTING CU
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY HAVE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES.
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER FA TONIGHT. WITH SKC AND LIGHT WINDS MOST
AREAS WILL SEE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S.
NEXT WAVE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE DAY.
EXPECT RAIN TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ADVANCING
CLOUDS WILL OFFSET RETURN FLOW/WARM ADVECTION FOR ANOTHER COOL
DAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
RAIN AREA WILL SPREAD EAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH BEST POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE SOUTH. WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT INCREASED POPS THERE.
UNSURE OF NORTHWARD EXTENT OF RAIN SHIELD BUT AT MINIMUM
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA SHOULD STAY DRY. SOME NEGATIVE
SHOWALTERS CLIP ND/SD BORDER AREA SO INCLUDED THUNDER THERE WITH
REMAINDER OF THE FA JUST RAIN THROUGH THE EVENT.
ANY LINGERING RA ACROSS THE SE FA SHOULD CLEAR BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION SO IF WE CAN GET SOME
SOLAR TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET ABOVE 70.
MODELS DIFFER ON RAIN POTENTIAL ALONG CANADIAN BORDER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SO NO CHANGES MADE.
LONG WAVE PATTERN REMAINS SPLIT WITH NORTHERN STREAM OVER CENTRAL
CANADA AND SOUTHERN STREAM OVER THE NORTHERN STATES. LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA EXPANDS FARTHER EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RIDGE TROUGH COUPLET OVER BERING STRAITS AND THE WEST COAST OF
CANADA WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING OCCURS OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AFTER DAY 5.
THE ECMWF WAS SLOWING DOWN OVER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS WHILE THE
GFS WAS BECOMING FASTER. WILL BLEND THE GFS AND THE ECMWF.
HIGH TEMPS WERE DECREASED ONE OF TWO DEGREES FOR THU AND FRI. LITTLE
CHANGE ON SAT AND SUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
WILL SEE VFR CU FIELD DEVELOP LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
137 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AREAWIDE...WITH A BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH. UPPER HIGH
EDGES IN FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT EDGES
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA TUESDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ENTERING THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES
WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
OTHERWISE...AWAITING THE CONVECTION TO FIRE WITH THE HEATING
TODAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY. RUC
HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON A DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO AND NORTHERN WV THIS MORNING...SO WILL RELY ON THE RUC FOR
MORNING POPS. BY THIS AFTERNOON...EACH MODEL VARIES ON THE PLACEMENT
OF CONVECTION. SINCE DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST...WILL RUN THE HIGHEST POPS IN THIS REGION AND RUN LOWER
POPS IN THE SOUTH WHERE SOME DRIER AIR IS TRYING TO INTRUDE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN ACTIVE SHORT TERM ON
TAP WITH A BUILDING WATER ISSUE ACROSS SE OH AND N WV.
TUES LOOKS TO BE AN ACTIVE DAY AS A DAMPENING S/W TROF ATTEMPTS TO
BEAT BACK THE UPPER RIDGE ENOUGH TO ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SAG INTO
THE CWA. AS A RESULT WILL CONTINUE THE LIKELY POPS FROM PREVIOUS
FCST CENTERED OVER SE OH AND N HALF OF WV...PRIMED DURING MAX
HEATING HRS. SOME STRONG TO SVR STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS
SPC HAS PLACED AREAS N OF I64 IN SLIGHT RISK.
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL TRY TO MAKE IT DOWN TO US 50 CORRIDOR
BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY BY TUES NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS SE OH AND N WV LOWLANDS TUESDAY GIVEN
HIGH PWATS AND POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING ALONG THE SAGGING FRONT. SOME
OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BEGINS TO WANE TUES NIGHT SO THINK THE
OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL FOLLOW SUITE AND TEND TO
FOCUS JUST ON THE BOUNDARY.
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE HEADING INTO WED WITH HOW THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN PLAYS OUT. THE MORE AMPLIFIED NAM TAKES A STOUT S/W TROF OUT
OF THE S PLAINS WHICH ALLOWS THE RIDGE TO BUILD BACK N AND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO HEAD BACK N AS WELL AND WASH OUT. THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE MUCH MORE TAME WITH THIS DISTURBANCE AND HOLD DOWN THE
RIDGE...ALLOWING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO REMAIN DRAPED OVER N
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL TRY TO PLAY A MIDDLE ROAD SOLUTION WHICH
SEEMS TO BETTER REFLECT THE NEW EURO SOLUTION. THIS ALLOWS FOR MORE
STORMS OVER SE OH AND N WV WITH LOWER CHANCES S OF I64 CORRIDOR.
THINGS TRY TO QUIET SOME WED NIGHT BUT WITH THE FRONT STILL
AROUND...KEPT SOME HIGHER POPS IN OVER SE OH AND N WV.
THU APPEARS TO BE AN ACTIVE DAY WAS WELL AT LEAST FOR SE OH WITH THE
LINGERING BOUNDARY AND CONTINUED DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION ROUNDING
THE TOP OF THE A BEATEN DOWN RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO MET/SREF/PREVIOUS WITH THE MAV LOOKING A BIT
TOO LOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WE HAVE LOST THE GFS SOLUTION SHOWING A BREAK IN THE WEATHER FRI INTO
SAT. WHILE A LARGE NRN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL CROSSES ERN
CANADA THU INTO THU NT...IT DOES NOT DIG AS FAR S AS PREVIOUSLY
PROGGED...AND THE COLD FRONT AND CANADIAN HIGH DO NOT GET AS FAR S
EITHER...SO THE FCST AREA STAYS IN THE SOUP. IT DOES STILL SHOW A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE DEEP S LIFTING OUT AND REACHING THE
FCST AREA THU...SO THIS STILL LOOKS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY. STILL
TRIED TO STAY AWAY FROM WPC CAT POPS. BUT HAVE LIKELY MUCH OF THE
DAY.
THE ECMWF HOLDS THAT S/W TROUGH BACK UNTIL FRI NT/SAT. OTHERWISE THE
MODELS BASICALLY SHOW A CONTINUATION OF THE GENERAL PATTERN. THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH SLOWLY EASES OFF THE SE COAST...WHICH ALLOWS THE
BOTTOM OF THE WESTERLIES TO SAG A BIT FARTHER SWD...INTO THE FCST
AREA...NEXT WEEKEND.
LITTLE CHANGES NEED TO TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE MOSTLY A BLEND OF
PREVIOUS...WPC AND THE MEX.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS SET THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON IN
TERMS OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE TERMINALS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. TIMING BEYOND WHAT IS IMMEDIATELY OCCURRING AND
PROJECTING THE ARRIVAL TIME IS TRICKY...SO HAVE USED VCTS QUITE A
BIT CONSIDERING THE EXPECTED NEW DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.
ALSO HAVE KEPT CONDITIONS MVFR...ALTHOUGH IFR HITS AND MISSES ARE
LIKELY BASED ON FLUCTUATIONS IN THE VISIBILITIES IN STORMS.
FOG WILL BE DIFFICULT TO COME BY TONIGHT WITH EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER. ONLY TAKE EKN DOWN TO IFR.
MORE CONVECTION EXPECTED TUESDAY AS THE PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF
CONVECTION...EXACT TIMING AND INTENSITY IS NOT INCLUDED IN THE
TAFS. AMENDMENTS LIKELY.
.AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF MORNING FOG WILL DEPENDS OF LOCATIONS THAT
GET RAIN AND CAN CLEAR OUT AT NIGHT.
&&
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...FB/RPY/26
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JSH/TRM
AVIATION...26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
106 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
NOT EXACTLY A CLEARCUT NEAR TERM FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
WHAT APPEARS TO BE A COUPLE DIFFERENT FORCING MECHANISMS AT WORK TO
BRING SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE AREA. MAIN PLAYER THROUGH THE DAY WILL
BE A SLOW MOVING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...LOCATED OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS IS CLEARLY SEEN
IN BROAD-SCALE PRECIP MOTION ON REGIONAL RADAR LOOP...WITH CELLS IN
CENTRAL NEBRASKA DROPPING SOUTH...WHILE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY FROM
EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO IOWA LIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST. LATEST MODELS SHOW
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THIS TROUGH KEEPING PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS OUR
FAR SOUTHEAST THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING...POSSIBLY LONGER THOUGH
GENERAL CONSENSUS DOES SHIFT PRECIP SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA BY 18Z.
SECONDARY PLAYER APPEARS TO BE SUBTLE ELEVATED WAVE/BOUNDARY AROUND
850-800MB...WHICH HAS SPARKED INCREASING DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR CWA OVER THE PAST HOUR. THIS
ACTIVITY ALIGNS FAIRLY WELL WITH AREA OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY
JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK WIND SHIFT SEEN IN BOTH THE RAP AND 06Z NAM.
BOTH MODELS ALSO SHOWING DECENT CONSENSUS IN WEAKENING THIS FEATURE
AS IT SHIFTS INTO NORTHWEST IOWA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...THOUGH
THE RAP IS A BIT FASTER TO LOSE THE FORCING THAN THE NAM. IN EITHER
CASE...EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE A SLOW SHIFT EAST...AND WILL
CONFINE POPS TO AREAS EAST OF KYKN-KFSD-KMML BY 12Z...WITH PRECIP
CHANCES TAILING OFF FAIRLY RAPIDLY 12Z-15Z IN AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY
60 AS THE ELEVATED BOUNDARY WASHES OUT.
WITH THE INCREASED PRECIP CHANCE/GREATER CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY...HAVE SLOWED THE RISE IN TEMPERATURES...THOUGH
STILL ANTICIPATE SOME SUNSHINE AND POTENTIAL FOR WARMING INTO THE
MID-UPPER 70S BY LATE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT WILL BRING CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY AS SURFACE RIDGE
MOVES INTO THE AREA. EXPECT MOST AREAS WILL SEE DECENT BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING THIS AFTERNOON TO SUFFICIENTLY LOWER DEW POINTS AND
MINIMIZE FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THIS IN FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS THOUGH...WHERE MIXING WILL BE MORE LIMITED DUE TO THE
LINGERING CLOUDS. WITH THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN...EXPECT MOST AREAS
TO SEE LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING ONE IN A SERIES OF WAVES
MODELS DEPICT IN A DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW FOR THE WEEK. APPROACH OF
THIS WAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FAIRLY SLOW INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AND A THERMAL PATTERN THAT WILL FAVOR THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR PRECIPITATION
THREAT. THIS WILL BE REFLECTED IN POPS WHICH WILL MAXIMIZE TUESDAY
NIGHT..WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY SPREADING OVER THE AREA AT THAT
TIME. WITH A BIT OF A MISMATCH OF PARAMETERS...THE BEST
INSTABILITY MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTH WHILE THERMAL SUPPORT AND WINDS
ARE MORE FAVORABLE WEST AND NORTH...SPC DAY 2 SEVERE RISK...MOSTLY
MARGINAL IN OUR AREA...IS ACCEPTED FOR NOW. ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND
DOWN WEDNESDAY THOUGH NOT AS FAST AS THE NAM SUGGESTS GIVEN THAT
IT SEEMS A LONER ON THE STRENGTH AND SPEED OF ITS DRY SURGE BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH
A MODEST 75 TO 80 RANGE.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD SEE A LITTLE WARMING WITH ANOTHER THREAT
OF STORMS AS ANOTHER HARD TO TIME WAVE REACHES THE AREA. THE WEEKEND
SHOULD BE BACK TO A LITTLE MORE MODEST WARMTH AND ANOTHER THREAT OF
CONVECTION. THE WAVE SHOWN BY MODELS IS STRONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS
WEAK SYSTEMS ESPECIALLY ON THE NEW EC...HOWEVER TIMING WILL AGAIN BE
DIFFICULT THAT FAR AHEAD. THE GFS AND EC ARE DIFFERENT ON STRENGTH
OF THIS SYSTEM BUT CLOSE ON TIMING...AND IF THEY ARE RIGHT A DRY
COUPLE OF DAYS SHOULD FOLLOW THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME MVFR CEILINGS IN FAR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA THROUGH ABOUT 21Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER AFTER 15Z TOMORROW.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
227 PM PDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND ONSHORE FLOW AT LOW LEVELS
CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK...BRINGING MORNING CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON
SUN. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRES ALOFT WILL DEVELOP DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK...FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS
ON FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE ERN PACIFIC NEAR 52N/138.5W
MOVES VERY LITTLE THRU THURSDAY...KEEPING WLY-SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE AREA. OCCASIONAL WEAK/DRY SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN WLY FLOW WILL
MOVE THRU THE AREA /STARTING AT 00Z THIS EVENING/...WITH MINIMAL
CHANGE TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. AT MID LEVELS WLY/SWLY FLOW
INCREASES SLIGHTLY...FOR A LITTLE DEEPER MARINE INTRUSION REACHING
FARTHER INLAND. MODELS INDICATE TUESDAY MAY SEE MORNING CLOUDS IN
BOTH THE SRN WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND COLUMBIA RIVER LOWLANDS...WITH A
FEW LESS CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY. INLAND AREAS WILL STILL CLEAR BY LATE
MORNING...KEEPING MAX TEMPERATURES 2-4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MOST OF
THE WEEK. BRIGHT
&&
.LONG TERM...WLY TO SWLY FLOW CONTINUES THRU THURSDAY FOR A TYPICAL
SUMMER PATTERN OF MORNING CLOUDS/LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
CLEARING. BY FRIDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER ERN PACIFIC WEST OF
QUEEN CHARLOTTES BEGINS TO OPEN AND MOVE SEWD. GFS/ECMWF DIFFER IN
DETAILS OF THIS EVOLUTION...PARTICULARLY IN THE STRENGTH OF UPSTREAM
RIDGING AND RESULTING TROUGH PASSAGE OVER PACNW FRIDAY. GFS SHOWS
LESS AMPLITUDE KEEPING ANY SHOWERS NORTH OF THE AREA...WHILE ECMWF
HIGHER AMPLITUDE WITH MORE CLOUDS FRIDAY AND LOW-END POPS OVER FAR
NWRN OR/SWRN WA. WILL LEAN TOWARD ECMWF AND KEEP LOW GRADE POPS IN
THE GRIDS FRIDAY. THE WEEKEND APPEARS DRY AT THIS TIME...WITH
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING UNDER WEAK UPPER RIDGING. BRIGHT
&&
.AVIATION...WEAK WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN THE NE PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A MARINE LAYER
NEAR THE COAST. THE FLOW ALOFT INCREASES THROUGH THE MID WEEK
PERIOD SO WE SHOULD SEE MORE INLAND INTRUSION OF MARINE CLOUDS THE
NEXT FEW MORNINGS. THE MODELS SUGGEST THE GREATEST COVERAGE COULD
BE TUESDAY MORNING WITH AN INTRUSION BOTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL GAP SOUTHWEST OF KEUG AND INLAND ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER.
THE IFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST ARE CLEARING TO NEAR THE BEACHES NEAR
KAST BUT WILL SPREAD BACK ONSHORE BY EARLY EVENING...AND WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN OVER THE INLAND PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL STRIP
NEAR KONP. IFR CIGS WILL THEN CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING AND LIKELY WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW CLOUDS
NEAR THE COAST WILL SPREAD INLAND THROUGH THE COASTAL GAPS
TONIGHT...POSSIBLY REACHING KKLS BY 06Z OR 08Z...AND INTO THE
INLAND VALLEYS NEAR KPDX AND KEUG BY 12Z. CONDITIONS INLAND SHOULD
BECOME VFR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TODAY. LOW MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
11Z-13Z TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE UNTIL 20Z OR 21Z. PT
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC THURSDAY. THERMAL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN INLAND OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL NOT QUITE REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE INNER WATERS...BUT
WILL OVER THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS ALL AREAS EASE A BIT LATER
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...BUT LOOK LIKE THEY WILL PICK BACK UP
IN THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENING TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS TILLAMOOK...BEFORE
WEAKENING LATER IN THE WEEK AS A SYSTEM SWINGS THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
SEAS REMAIN SQUARE AND CHOPPY WITH HEIGHTS AROUND 7 FEET AND
PERIODS AROUND 7 SECONDS IN THE OUTER WATERS BUT ARE STARTING TO
DROP IN THE INNER WATERS. SEAS CONTINUE TO DECREASE LATER TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. PT
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM
10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10
TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD
OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR
FROM 10 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 3 AM
TO 7 AM PDT TUESDAY.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1115 AM PDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and dry weather will continue across the Inland Northwest.
Friday and Saturday will be the days to watch for potentially
hazardous weather including organized thunder as well and very
gusty winds combining with low humidity. Otherwise...expect
temperatures to gradually warm through mid-week with mainly
mountain showers and isolated thunder.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Very little changes made to today`s forecast. Main concerns will
be isolated showers and thunderstorms in the far northern Cascades
and a small chance along an axis stretching from southeastern
Shoshone County toward Northeastern Oregon. The Cascades will
carry a slightly higher probability with 11AM RAP data already
showing 300-500 J/kg of sb CAPE and small cumulus towers starting
to sprout. Any storms look to remain north and west of the 2014
burn scars but this will be monitored very closely.
Northeast winds are currently at their peak and will continue to
slowly come down through the afternoon hours but should generally
remain from the N/NE until this evening. The strongest winds are
channeling through the Okanogan Valley and Purcell Trench between
Sandpoint and C`dA.
Temperatures are currently running 3-5 degrees above yesterday and
but with the low level air mass only warming 1-2C from yesterday
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A drier westerly flow aloft will continue to bring VFR
conditions to all terminals with passing high clouds at times. The
only sensible weather will be isolated showers and thunderstorms
in the far northern Cascades and along an axis stretching from
Northeastern Oregon to Missoula. Any activity looks to remain
south of Lewiston. At the surface...northeast winds channeling
down the Purcell Trench and Okanogan Valley will peak between
18-20z and gradual decrease by 00z. /sb
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 82 56 85 57 82 54 / 0 0 10 10 10 0
Coeur d`Alene 80 53 84 53 81 52 / 0 0 10 10 10 10
Pullman 80 49 83 50 80 49 / 10 10 10 10 10 10
Lewiston 88 58 91 59 88 57 / 0 10 10 10 10 10
Colville 83 51 89 52 85 50 / 0 0 10 10 20 20
Sandpoint 78 48 83 49 81 48 / 0 0 10 10 20 20
Kellogg 80 49 82 51 80 49 / 10 10 10 10 20 20
Moses Lake 89 55 91 58 87 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 88 64 90 63 86 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 86 55 91 55 86 52 / 0 0 10 10 20 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
548 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
AND NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 544 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
HEAVIEST RAINS HAVE SHIFTED SE OF THE AREA. PLAN TO LET THE WRN
USSFA CONT THROUGH TO IT/S 615 PM EXPIRATION...AS HAVE RECEIVED
NUMEROUS REPORTS OF URBAN FLOODING FM THE ATW AREA. THE SECOND
ADVISORY AREA...NRN MTW COUNTY...DID NOT GET AS MUCH RAIN. HAVE
NOT RECEIVED ANY REPORTS OF FLOODING IN THIS AREA...SO WL BE
DROPPING THE MTW ADVISORY SHORTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A COLD
FRONT POSITIONED FROM AROUND LA CROSSE TO IRON MOUNTAIN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO EXPAND ALONG
IT...AIDED BY WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF AN
UPPER JET. THE STORMS HAVE BEEN BEHAVING SO FAR TODAY...BUT ARE
DROPPING A QUICK HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN WITHIN A HUMID
AIRMASS. BEHIND THE FRONT...A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS IS PUSHING
SOUTHEAST AS EVIDENT BY DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 50S AND
UPPER 40S. PRECIP TRENDS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH
THE EVENING...FOLLOWED BY CLOUDS AND TEMPS.
THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND EXIT THE
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN SHORELINE BY EARLY TO MID-EVENING. WITH A MOIST
AND HUMID AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PWATS NEARING 1.75
INCHES...AND ML CAPES OF 400-800 J/KG...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD NOT
HAVE ANY PROBLEM HOLDING THEIR OWN INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. THE
TIME OF ARRIVAL TOOL HAS THE STORMS MOVING INTO THE FOX VALLEY
BETWEEN 20-21Z...AND APPROACHING THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AROUND
00Z THOUGH ISOLATED CELLS MAY POP AHEAD OF THE LINE. EVEN WITH THE
INCREASING INSTABILITY OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN AHEAD OF THE
LINE...WARM MID-LEVELS AROUND 700MB AND HIGH FREEZING LEVELS WILL
LIMIT THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. 0-6KMB BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE
GREATER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED AT AROUND 25-30 KTS...SO WILL HAVE
TO LOOK OUT FOR AN ISOLATED WIND THREAT...BUT THE THREAT IS PROBABLY
TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE HWO. BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL SEE PARTIAL
CLEARING WITH A VEIL OF CIRRUS OVERHEAD.
MIDNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BETTER CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE
LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS THE CIRRUS DEPARTS. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND DRAG IN THE LESS HUMID AIR...WHICH SUPPORTS
LOW TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO UPPER 50S SOUTH. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. SOME OF THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL GET TRAPPED BENEATH THE
INVERSION...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A SCT CU FIELD BY LATE MORNING. NO
THREAT OF PRECIP THOUGH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH
TO MID 70S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
ACTIVE ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. SEVERAL EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES OF VARYING
INTENSITY ARE FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN CONUS BRINING
SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GUIDANCE
NOTORIOUSLY TENDS TO STRUGGLE WITH TIMING...INTENSITY AND LOCATION
OF THE INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES...AND THAT WAS THE RULE AGAIN IN
THIS MODEL CYCLE. BECAUSE THIS IS A GENERALLY LOW CONFIDENCE
SCENARIO...OPTED NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...AND MAINTAINED BROAD CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
EXTENDED.
NEXT IN THE SERIES OF DISTURBANCES STILL LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY. FORTUNATELY IT APPEARS THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
STREAMING OUT OF TEXAS AROUND MID-WEEK SHOULD GET SHUNNED JUST TO
OUR SOUTHEAST....BUT WILL BEAR WATCHING. EVEN SO...STILL ADEQUATE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR THIS DISTURBANCE TO WORK WITH. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST UNTIL
ABOUT 12Z THURSDAY...TO BE FOLLOWED BY A DRY DAY OR SO BEFORE A
POTENTIALLY MORE VIGOROUS SYSTEM BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA EARLY
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM HAS POTENTIAL TO BRING
RATHER SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE RAINFALL TO PARTS OF WISCONSIN AS
WELL AS SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. TOO EARLY TO DECIPHER THE
DETAILS FOR THE WEEKEND SYSTEM.
ESB.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 544 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE AND
COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEGIN TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA. EXPECT ENOUGH
OF A SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LOW-LEVEL CAA TO KEEP FG FM
BECOMING A PROBLEM.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ESB
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A COLD
FRONT POSITIONED FROM AROUND LA CROSSE TO IRON MOUNTAIN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO EXPAND ALONG
IT...AIDED BY WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF AN
UPPER JET. THE STORMS HAVE BEEN BEHAVING SO FAR TODAY...BUT ARE
DROPPING A QUICK HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN WITHIN A HUMID
AIRMASS. BEHIND THE FRONT...A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS IS PUSHING
SOUTHEAST AS EVIDENT BY DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 50S AND
UPPER 40S. PRECIP TRENDS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH
THE EVENING...FOLLOWED BY CLOUDS AND TEMPS.
THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND EXIT THE
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN SHORELINE BY EARLY TO MID-EVENING. WITH A MOIST
AND HUMID AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PWATS NEARING 1.75
INCHES...AND ML CAPES OF 400-800 J/KG...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD NOT
HAVE ANY PROBLEM HOLDING THEIR OWN INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. THE
TIME OF ARRIVAL TOOL HAS THE STORMS MOVING INTO THE FOX VALLEY
BETWEEN 20-21Z...AND APPROACHING THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AROUND
00Z THOUGH ISOLATED CELLS MAY POP AHEAD OF THE LINE. EVEN WITH THE
INCREASING INSTABILITY OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN AHEAD OF THE
LINE...WARM MID-LEVELS AROUND 700MB AND HIGH FREEZING LEVELS WILL
LIMIT THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. 0-6KMB BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE
GREATER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED AT AROUND 25-30 KTS...SO WILL HAVE
TO LOOK OUT FOR AN ISOLATED WIND THREAT...BUT THE THREAT IS PROBABLY
TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE HWO. BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL SEE PARTIAL
CLEARING WITH A VEIL OF CIRRUS OVERHEAD.
MIDNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BETTER CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE
LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS THE CIRRUS DEPARTS. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND DRAG IN THE LESS HUMID AIR...WHICH SUPPORTS
LOW TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO UPPER 50S SOUTH. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. SOME OF THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL GET TRAPPED BENEATH THE
INVERSION...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A SCT CU FIELD BY LATE MORNING. NO
THREAT OF PRECIP THOUGH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH
TO MID 70S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
ACTIVE ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. SEVERAL EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES OF VARYING
INTENSITY ARE FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN CONUS BRINING
SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GUIDANCE
NOTORIOUSLY TENDS TO STRUGGLE WITH TIMING...INTENSITY AND LOCATION
OF THE INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES...AND THAT WAS THE RULE AGAIN IN
THIS MODEL CYCLE. BECAUSE THIS IS A GENERALLY LOW CONFIDENCE
SCENARIO...OPTED NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...AND MAINTAINED BROAD CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
EXTENDED.
NEXT IN THE SERIES OF DISTURBANCES STILL LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY. FORTUNATELY IT APPEARS THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
STREAMING OUT OF TEXAS AROUND MID-WEEK SHOULD GET SHUNNED JUST TO
OUR SOUTHEAST....BUT WILL BEAR WATCHING. EVEN SO...STILL ADEQUATE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR THIS DISTURBANCE TO WORK WITH. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST UNTIL
ABOUT 12Z THURSDAY...TO BE FOLLOWED BY A DRY DAY OR SO BEFORE A
POTENTIALLY MORE VIGOROUS SYSTEM BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA EARLY
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM HAS POTENTIAL TO BRING
RATHER SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE RAINFALL TO PARTS OF WISCONSIN AS
WELL AS SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. TOO EARLY TO DECIPHER THE
DETAILS FOR THE WEEKEND SYSTEM.
ESB.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF
IFR VSBYS IN HEAVY RAIN BUT STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE NOT
EXPECTED. THE STORMS WILL EXIT EASTERN WISCONSIN BY MID-
EVENING...AND SKIES WILL CLEAR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. GOOD
FLYING WEATHER WILL BE PRESENT ON TUESDAY THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ESB
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1247 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
AT 3 AM...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM APOSTLE ISLANDS TO
KANSAS CITY MISSOURI. DEW POINTS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WERE IN THE
60S TO LOWER 70S...AND IN THE 40S AND 50S IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONT. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS NO CONVECTION LOCATED ALONG THIS
FRONT. MEANWHILE FURTHER SOUTH...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF IOWA...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...
AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS PRECIPITATION WAS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN EASTERN NEBRASKA IN A BAND OF 900 TO 500
MB FRONTOGENESIS.
FOR TODAY...THE 15.00Z MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA... WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH IOWA THIS MORNING...AND
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT...THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
1.50 TO 2.00 INCH RANGE. THE HIGHEST TOTALS WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN
IOWA... NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. IN
ADDITION...THE WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS IN THIS AREA WILL BE CLOSE
TO 4 KM. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL MODERATE 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THIS SAME AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY EFFICIENT
RAIN PRODUCERS. RAINFALL TOTALS COULD BE AROUND AN INCH...WITH A
FEW LOCATIONS SEEING UP TO 2 INCHES. WITH THE PRECIPITATION EXPECT
THAT RAP AND NAM ARE TOO HIGH ON THEIR 0-1 KM MIXED LAYER
CAPES...OVERALL PREFER THE LOWER GFS AND ECMWF WHICH HAVE THESE
CAPES LESS THAN 750 J/KG. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE RAP...A
MAJORITY OF THE MODELS HAVE VERY LITTLE 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM
SHEAR...SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...OR
TORNADOES.
FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA. NORMALLY THIS WOULD BE THE SCENARIO
FOR DENSE FOG. HOWEVER THE WINDS ABOVE 500 FEET REMAIN AROUND
20 KNOTS AND THE DRY AIR IS CAUSING DEW DEPARTURES OF 4 TO 8
DEGREES LATE TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE 15.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE QUICKLY EAST THROUGH THE AREA. THE STRONG WESTERLIES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM RESULTS IN 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE EXCESS
OF 50 KNOTS. HOWEVER THIS FRONT IS COMING THROUGH AT THE WRONG
TIME OF DAY AND THE 0-1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPES AT THIS TIME ARE
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...THUS NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER. THE
NAM SHOWS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE INTERACTION FROM A
SYSTEM FROM A SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
MEANWHILE THE GFS IS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE NAM
SOLUTION SEEMS TO BE A BIT TOO FAST...SO WOULD TREND MORE TOWARD
THE GFS.
FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM HAS A SLIGHT
DEEPER TROUGH THAN THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE THE 0-1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPES CLIMBING UP TO 1500 J/KG
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. THEY DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR. THE
GFS HAS 0-6 KM SHEAR GREATER THAN 50 KNOTS. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF
HAS LESS THAN 20 KNOTS. DUE TO THIS DISCREPANCY...THERE ARE A LOT
OF QUESTIONS ON WHETHER THERE WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS
SYSTEM. WHILE THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS...THEY DO SHOW THAT
THERE COULD BE INTERACTION WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE POTENTIAL
TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST GULF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ONGOING SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...AND POSSIBLE IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AT RST/LSE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST 17Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO WESTERN IOWA. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE OVER IOWA INTERACTING WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA/NORTHEAST IOWA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN PER KARX RADAR.
LATEST METARS UNDERNEATH THE SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...REPORTING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. AS THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE RST/LSE TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON...IMPROVING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. AT THIS
TIME...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 19Z TODAY AT RST AND
AROUND 22Z AT LSE. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE REMAINS ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION...DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY. HAVE
CONTINUED THE TREND OF VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORM AT LSE TAF SITE THROUGH
22Z TODAY.
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN
WISCONSIN TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS AT
RST/LSE TAF SITES.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM....BOYNE
AVIATION...DTJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1146 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
.UPDATE...
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN WI THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAIN OVER SOUTHERN WI RIGHT NOW IS SUPPORTED BY
VORTICITY ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE 15Z HRRR RUN
HAS NOW CAUGHT ON TO REALITY AND DOES NOT PRODUCE AS MUCH CONVECTION
OVER SOUTHERN WI THIS AFTERNOON AS ITS PREVIOUS RUNS. CAPE AND SHEAR
ARE VERY LIMITED ACROSS SOUTHERN WI. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AROUND 2 INCHES... PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDER ARE
LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TRACKING IN A LINE THROUGH NORTHWEST
WI AND SOUTHEAST MN TODAY ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT. IT APPEARS
THAT THE BETTER DEFORMATION ALOFT THAT ALIGNS WITH THIS FRONT WILL
DIMINISH BY THE TIME THAT FRONT SLIDES THROUGH SOUTHEAST WI IN THE
EVENING. THUS... PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER 5 PM THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL BE GONE AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH IN
THE EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING WISCONSIN. THE
ROUNDS OF RAIN WILL LOWER THE VSBYS AND CIGS AT TIMES. THE SHOWERS
OR STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING OVER SE WI BUT NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
DENSE FOG DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING...
MAINLY SOUTH OF SHEBOYGAN PER WEBCAMS. THUS... ISSUED A MARINE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 00Z/7 PM THIS EVENING. THE THREAT OF FOG WILL
DIMINISH AS SOON AS NORTHERLY WINDS USHER DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION
BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...CANCELLED DENSE FOG ADVISORY WITH LITTLE TO NO
FOG DEVELOPING. THIS IS PROBABLY DUE TO WLY WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC
AND INCREASING CLOUDS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND TRANSPORT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE MID MO RIVER
VALLEY AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NW WILL TRIGGER ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS TODAY. THE STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOWER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS...AROUND 15-20 KTS WITH VERY HIGH PWS OF 1.6-1.9
INCHES. THUS WILL MENTION A SMALL THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING IN THE
HWO. MLCAPE SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 1000 J/KG WHICH WILL KEEP ANY
CHANCES OF SVR TSTORMS VERY LOW. NLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY DRY OUT THE
ATMOSPHERE TNT WITH 50 DEWPOINTS BY TUE AM.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...HIGH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THE WRN GRT LAKES REGION WITH A
COOLER AND DRIER NE FLOW. 925 TEMPS PROGGD TO BE IN THE LOW/MID
TEENS CELSIUS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAKE FOR THE USUAL EAST/WEST TEMP
GRADIENT FOR THIS REGIME. NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS BOTH SHOW A
VERY DRY COLUMN SO EXPECTING A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. THE NAM
CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER SOLUTION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
SPREADING PRECIP INTO SW CWA IN RETURN FLOW. MEANWHILE
GEM/GFS/ECMWF ARE DRY. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SMALL POPS IN THE SW
CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NAM SOLUTION.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
COMBO OF PIVA WITH SHORTWAVE AND SOME 850 WAA WILL HELP GENERATE
SHRA/TSRA. MODELS SUGGEST WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE IN PLACE
DURING THE DAY WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT ARRIVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
GETTING SOME MODEST CAPE VALUES WITH BORDERLINE 0-6KM SHEAR AND
LESS THAN IDEAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SWODY3 MARGINAL RISK
APPEARS REASONABLE. 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z GEM SUGGEST SOME LINGERING
EFFECTS OF THE FRONT INTO EARLY THURSDAY BUT THE 00Z GFS HAS
TRENDED DRIER. MUCH OF THURSDAY TO BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES
IN. THIS HIGH WILL DOMINATE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS TO KEEP REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM JUST
TO OUR SOUTH WHILE NORTHERN PLAINS LOW EXTENDS WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO WI. HOWEVER ECMWF DOES BRING PRECIP SHIELD INTO SRN
WI WITH THE MID MISS VLY CIRCULATION. IF THAT CAN STAY SOUTH PER
GFS/GEM THEN BULK OF PLAINS SYSTEM PRECIP EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO
OUR WEST OR NORTH...THOUGH THE GFS DOES GIVE MORE OF A BROAD BRUSH
TO THE WAA PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
TIMING AND ORIENTATION DIFFERENCES ON THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA. THE GFS IS QUICKER
WITH INITIAL WEAKER LOW THAT PASSES TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY. THEN BIGGER DIFFERENCES ARISE WITH SECOND AND STRONGER
LOW. ECMWF DEVELOPS LOW ACROSS NRN WI SAT NGT INTO SUNDAY WHILE
GFS IS TRENDING THIS SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH. STRONGER CAA SIGNAL
FROM THE ECMWF ON SUNDAY AS WELL AND NOT AS MUCH FROM THE GFS.
LOTS OF DIFFERENCES AND DETAILS TO IRON OUT AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO
NEXT WEEKEND. WILL GO WITH SUPERBLEND POPS/TEMPS FOR NOW.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...INTERMITTENT SHOWERS AND TSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE ROUNDS OF
RAIN WILL LOWER THE CIGS TO 1.0-3.0 KFT AT TIMES ESPECIALLY DURING
THE MORNING. PREVAILING VSBYS WILL ALSO LOWER TO 3-5SM AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. LOWERS CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE FOUND
WITHIN THE STRONGER SHOWERS OR STORMS. THE SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY
LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING OVER SE WI BUT NLY WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DRY OUT THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
MARINE...CANCELLED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WITH WEBCAMS SHOWING GOOD
VISIBILITY ALONG THE LAKESHORE. SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WHICH
USUALLY LIMITS THE FOG BUT STILL EXPECT SOME FOG TO FORM ESPECIALLY
TOWARD SHEBOYGAN AS DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGH.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ644>646.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...COLLAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
419 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2015
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF OUR
SOUTHEAST WY ZONES EXCEPT NIOBRARA COUNTY THROUGH 11 PM. MLCAPE IS
UP TO 1000-1500 J/KG ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. BULK
SHEAR IS AROUND 40 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS LESS UNSTABLE (CAPE
LESS THAN 1000 J/KG) ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS WHERE LOW CLOUDS
HAVE BEEN MORE PERSISTENT. CONVECTION HAS BROKEN OUT OVER
CARBON/ALBANY COUNTIES WITH A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SVR CELLS.
THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW THIS CONVECTION EVOLVES THROUGH THE
EVENING AS IT MOVES INTO AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
THE HRRR DOES INDICATE SOME STRONGER STORMS THROUGH 03Z OVER
SOUTHEAST WY BEFORE THE ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE CLUSTERED AND
MULTICELLULAR ESPECIALLY OVER CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA COUNTIES. ALL
OF THE MODELS SHOW A GOOD AMOUNT OF QPF THROUGH SUNRISE TUESDAY IN
THE NORTHERN ZONES AND NORTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST WY. THIS IS WHERE
THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING
SHORTWAVE. ALTHOUGH THE STEERING FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY SLOW
(20-25 KTS)...WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING SINCE SOME OF
THE EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE CELLS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY
RAIN. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY LATE TONIGHT.
THE DECENT RISK FOR SVR STORMS TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
CONTINUES TO LOOK ON TRACK FOR TUESDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE MUCH
BETTER ON TUES OVER THE PLAINS AND ESPECIALLY THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. THE SFC TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE WY-NE BORDER
DURING THE AFTN AND THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE TRIGGER FOR CONVECTIVE
INITATION. THE COMBINATION OF BULK SHEAR OF 45-50 KTS AND CAPES
NEAR 1500 J/KG WILL PROMOTE A GOOD CHANCE OF STORMS TO BECOME
SUPERCELLULAR. THINKING IS LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT AS
LLVL SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK AND HODOGRAPHS ARE STRAIGHT. SPC HAS
MUCH OF THE PLAINS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR WEATHER ON TUES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2015
WEDNESDAY...SOUTHEASTERLY LLVL FLOW WILL BE DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTN WITH GOOD INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. COULD SEE ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF STRONG TO SVR STORMS
GIVEN THAT BULK SHEAR IS 35-40 KTS.
THURSDAY...MOSTLY DRY AND QUITE WARM WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT PRODUCING ENOUGH CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
FRIDAY...FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS OUT WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALOFT MOVING
ACROSS...THOUGH WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...MINIMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY...MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES ACROSS AND WITH
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND CORRESPONDING
DECREASE IN WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WILL SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
SUNDAY...HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE WITH FLOW TURNING NORTHWEST AND WITH
DRIER LOW AND MID LEVELS...WILL SEE A DECREASE IN AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AREAL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2015
LOW STRATUS REMAINS INTACT ALONG/EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT A FEW TERMINALS
THROUGH 20-21Z...BUT IN GENERAL EXPECT CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY ERODE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP WEST THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AND
MOVING EAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
ARE POSSIBLE BENEATH HEAVIER STORMS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2015
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS
AND EVENINGS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 15-20 PERCENT TO
THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON THESE DAYS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WYZ101>103.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...CLH/RUBIN
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...ZF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1240 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT MON JUN 15 2015
VERY ACTIVE WEATHERWISE IN THE SHORT TERM. FORECAST CHALLENGES
DEAL WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.
CURRENTLY...COLD FRONT PRETTY MUCH LOCATED WHERE
ADVERTISED...GENERALLY FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA...TO SIDNEY...ALONG
THE WYOMING/COLORADO STATELINE OUT TO NEAR RAWLINS THIS MORNING AT
1 AM. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING MCV FEATURE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE MOVING EAST AND JUST ABOUT TO CLEAR CHEYENNE COUNTY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWING THE SHORTWAVE THAT KICKED
OFF CONVECTION TO THE NORTH IS JUST ABOUT TO CLEAR THE
WYOMING/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER...WHICH SHOULD BRING CONVECTION TO AN
END FOR THE MOST PART UP THERE. NEXT SHORTWAVE TO IMPACT THE AREA
MOVING INTO IDAHO THIS MORNING WITH ANOTHER JUST MOVING ONSHORE
NEAR THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON BORDER.
FOR TODAY...ONCE THIS CONVECTION ENDS...DO EXPECT TO SEE STRATUS
DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE BEHIND THE FRONT. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE
SHOWING THE STRATUS PUSHING AS FAR WEST AS THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS
MORNING. IT MAY BE SLOW TO BREAK UP WITH EAST TO NORTHEAST UPSLOPE
WINDS CONTINUING. LATEST NAM CAPES FOR THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING
MOST UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN OUR WESTERN ZONES WITH MUCAPE AROUND
2000 J/KG ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. COULD BE DEALING
WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OUT THAT WAY TODAY.
BY TONIGHT...GUIDANCE SHOWING THE FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES. NAM...GFS AND ECMWF TARGETING HIGH QPF
FORECASTS OVER CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA COUNTIES. FORECAST STORM
MOTIONS BY DOUGLAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT UNDER 10KTS
AND PWATS OVER AN INCH. DECIDED TO HOIST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
CONVERSE/NIOBRARA COUNTIES FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.
GET A LITTLE BREAK IN THE ACTION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT BY
AFTERNOON...SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION. THE
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE CALIFORNIA/OREGON WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. NAM MUCAPES OVER 3500 J/KG IN THE PANHANDLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. LIFTED INDICES -7 TO -8C WITH 40-60KTS OF SHEAR OUT IN
THE PANHANDLE. DO BELIEVE ALL MODES OF SEVERE CONVECTIVE WEATHER
WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 AM MDT MON JUN 15 2015
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
THURSDAY...MOSTLY DRY AND QUITE WARM WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT PRODUCING ENOUGH CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
FRIDAY...FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS OUT WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALOFT MOVING
ACROSS...THOUGH WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...MINIMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY...MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES ACROSS AND WITH
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND CORRESPONDING
DECREASE IN WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WILL SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
SUNDAY...HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE WITH FLOW TURNING NORTHWEST AND WITH
DRIER LOW AND MID LEVELS...WILL SEE A DECREASE IN AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AREAL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2015
LOW STRATUS REMAINS INTACT ALONG/EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT A FEW TERMINALS
THROUGH 20-21Z...BUT IN GENERAL EXPECT CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY ERODE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP WEST THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AND
MOVING EAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
ARE POSSIBLE BENEATH HEAVIER STORMS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 125 AM MDT MON JUN 15 2015
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MINIMAL AS MOST AREAS IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE RECEIVE WETTING RAINS THROUGH TUESDAY. A
STALLED OUT COLD FRONT ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL BE THE
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR WIDESPREAD RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT FOR WYZ101>103.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...GCC