Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/14/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
1027 AM MST FRI JUN 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...LINGERING MOISTURE AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...DRY
CONDITIONS WITH A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND WILL PREVAIL INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES 4 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ARE EXPECTED NEXT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FROM
TUCSON WESTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN DESERTS LIKELY EXCEEDING 105
DEGREES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN IS DEFINED BY AN UPPER
LOW OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO...A SAGGING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA AND CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA...AND A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
CUMULUS ACROSS THE RIM/WHITE MOUNTAINS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE TO RESULT IN A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE WHITES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS REINFORCED
BY THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND UOFA NAM/GFS WRF MODEL RUNS WHICH
DEPICT WEAK CONVECTION DEVELOPING. IN ANY EVENT...THIS IS DEPICTED
WELL WITH THE INHERITED FORECAST. NO UPDATES WILL BE NECESSARY.
OTHERWISE...AFTER A QUICK LOOK AT THE 12Z MODEL RUNS...STILL LOOKS
LIKE WE ARE IN LINE FOR SOME HOT TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. LOOKING AT A LOCAL STUDY USING REGRESSION VALUES OF THE
850-700MB THICKNESS AND RELATING THEM TO AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES,
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING HIGH TEMPS IN TUCSON IN THE 105-109 DEG RANGE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT DECREASE FROM THE
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...CONFIDENCE IS STILL HIGH THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE ABOVE 105 DEGS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
GIVEN THE THERMAL LOW OVER SW AZ AND A PIECE OF THE UPPER HIGH THAT
SPLINTERS OFF INTO NEW MEXICO...MOISTURE MAY CREEP INTO THE FAR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. GIVEN
THE TEMPERATURES...THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME HIGH BASED CONVECTION/
DRY STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON EAST OF TUCSON WITH THE THREAT OF
STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC STORM OUTFLOW WINDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...A LARGE BUT WEAK TROUGH REMAINS ORIENTED NE TO SW
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE WESTERN US THIS MORNING WITH A
DECENT BAND OF MOISTURE FROM COLORADO SW TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.
THIS BAND WILL VERY SLOWLY SAG SOUTH AS THIS TROUGH GRADUALLY MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST AND WILL RESULT IN A SMALL THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
MONDAY. THAT IS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT AND HAVE
A DRY FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WITH SKIES
GENERALLY CLEAR OTHER THAN A BIT OF AFTERNOON CUMULUS.
WITH THE WEAKENING TROUGH OVERHEAD...AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH EACH DAY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY.
THEN HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES RISE NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING EVEN FURTHER...AND LIKELY 4-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
RESPECT TO AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND
POTENTIALLY THURSDAY. I HAVE TWEAKED TEMPERATURES UP A DEGREE OR
TWO THIS PERIOD WITH AREAS FROM TUCSON WESTWARD ABOVE 105 DEGREES.
AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY WHERE I
HAVE TUCSON AT 107 FOR EXAMPLE...AND THAT IS IN ALIGNMENT WITH MOS
GUIDANCE. HOWEVER LOCAL STATISTICAL GUIDANCE BASED OFF THICKNESS
VALUES WOULD SUGGEST IT WILL BE WARMER THAN THAT. DECIDED NOT TO
PUSH IT HIGHER AT THIS TIME WITH A CONCERN FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE
THAT WILL NOT BE ALL THAT FAR AWAY AND MAY IMPACT THE AREA WITH SOME
CLOUD COVER.
FROM THURSDAY ONWARD THIS TROPICAL MOISTURE AND THE UNKNOWN
INFLUENCE OF HOW CARLOS MAY OR MAY NOT AFFECT OUR AREA BRINGS INTO
QUESTION THE THREAT OF MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING OVER PARTS
OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK WHICH COULD BRING A BIT OF HIGH BASED
CONVECTION TO THE AREA. THERE IS A LOT OF VARIANCE IN THE GUIDANCE
AT THIS TIME SO HAVE NOT TWEAKED POPS MUCH BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED. WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE ON THE DOORSTEP YOU NEVER KNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THROUGH 13/18Z.
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TODAY. A FEW
CLOUD BUILDUPS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA/-TSRA ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS NE OF KSAD THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SURFACE WIND THIS
AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE WLY AT 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25
KTS. TERRAIN-DRIVEN WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS WILL OCCUR
OTHERWISE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GENERALLY LIGHT TERRAIN-DRIVEN WINDS WILL
PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF SOME GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS EAST OF TUCSON
DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1030 AM PDT FRI JUN 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL RESULT IN
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN COOL SLIGHTLY THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK
AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:45 AM PDT FRIDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
SHOWING A LITTLE LESS IN THE WAY OF INLAND STRATUS THIS
MORNING...WITH JUST SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS NOTED ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE AND IN THE NORTHERN SALINAS VALLEY AT THIS
TIME. THE MARINE LAYER IS MORE SHALLOW...AROUND 1000 FEET PER THE
FORT ORD PROFILER...AND SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE WEAKER
ONSHORE AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER OFFSHORE (SFO-SAC 1.0 MB...WMC-SFO
3.0 MB) AS A RESULT OF THIS...PLUS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...MAX
TEMPERATURES INLAND ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH MAX TEMPS APPROACHING 100
DEGREES IN SOME AREAS...NAMELY EXTREME NORTHERN SONOMA
COUNTY...EASTERN CONTRA COSTA COUNTY...SAN BENITO AND SOUTHERN
MONTEREY COUNTY.
THE GFS...NAM...WRF AND HRRR MODELS ALL HINT AT SOME POSSIBLE
CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING OVER FAR SOUTHERN
SAN BENITO COUNTY. THIS WILL PROBABLY TURN OUT TO BE SOME CLOUD
BUILDUPS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND WILL ADD THIS TO THE
FORECAST FOR TODAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SAG OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
BEGINNING TOMORROW AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH...THE TROUGH IS NOT FORECAST TO DEEPEN SUBSTANTIALLY...
THERE IS STILL SOME INCREASE IN THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AND A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED...SO THE COOL-DOWN COULD
BE A LITTLE MORE GRADUAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND THAN EARLIER
ADVERTISED. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DON`T REALLY COOL OFF UNTIL
MONDAY PER THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS. AFTER MIDWEEK...THE GFS ALSO
HAS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDING INTO CALIFORNIA FROM THE SOUTH
FOR WARMER TEMPS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF
KEEPS A TROUGH OVER THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEK. WILL WAIT FOR THE
12Z ECMWF BEFORE MAKING CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:29 AM PDT FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS
ANOTHER ROUND OF CIGS/FOG TONIGHT. AMPLE CLOUDS REMAIN ALONG THE
COAST AND SEE NO REASON WHY THERE WOULD NOT BE A RETURN OF CLOUDS
TONIGHT. CONF IS A LITTLE LESS ON CLOUD COVERAGE IN SF BAY
TOMORROW MORNING...BUT WILL MENTION SOME CIGS.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CIGS THROUGH THIS EVENING. MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSS TOMORROW AM AS MARINE LAYER DEEPENS
SLIGHTLY.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS/FOG
RETURN EARLY TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 10:26 AM PDT FRIDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE STRONGEST
NORTH OF POINT REYES EARLY TODAY THEN SPREADING SOUTHWARD BY THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER SAN PABLO
BAY...SUISUN BAY...THE WEST DELTA AND SAN FRANCISCO BAY NORTH OF
THE BAY BRIDGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 4 PM
SCA...SF BAY FROM 2 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: MM
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
944 AM PDT FRI JUN 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL RESULT IN
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN COOL SLIGHTLY THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK
AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:45 AM PDT FRIDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
SHOWING A LITTLE LESS IN THE WAY OF INLAND STRATUS THIS
MORNING...WITH JUST SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS NOTED ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE AND IN THE NORTHERN SALINAS VALLEY AT THIS
TIME. THE MARINE LAYER IS MORE SHALLOW...AROUND 1000 FEET PER THE
FORT ORD PROFILER...AND SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE WEAKER
ONSHORE AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER OFFSHORE (SFO-SAC 1.0 MB...WMC-SFO
3.0 MB) AS A RESULT OF THIS...PLUS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...MAX
TEMPERATURES INLAND ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH MAX TEMPS APPROACHING 100
DEGREES IN SOME AREAS...NAMELY EXTREME NORTHERN SONOMA
COUNTY...EASTERN CONTRA COSTA COUNTY...SAN BENITO AND SOUTHERN
MONTEREY COUNTY.
THE GFS...NAM...WRF AND HRRR MODELS ALL HINT AT SOME POSSIBLE
CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING OVER FAR SOUTHERN
SAN BENITO COUNTY. THIS WILL PROBABLY TURN OUT TO BE SOME CLOUD
BUILDUPS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND WILL ADD THIS TO THE
FORECAST FOR TODAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SAG OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
BEGINNING TOMORROW AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH...THE TROUGH IS NOT FORECAST TO DEEPEN SUBSTANTIALLY...
THERE IS STILL SOME INCREASE IN THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AND A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED...SO THE COOL-DOWN COULD
BE A LITTLE MORE GRADUAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND THAN EARLIER
ADVERTISED. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DON`T REALLY COOL OFF UNTIL
MONDAY PER THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS. AFTER MIDWEEK...THE GFS ALSO
HAS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDING INTO CALIFORNIA FROM THE SOUTH
FOR WARMER TEMPS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF
KEEPS A TROUGH OVER THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEK. WILL WAIT FOR THE
12Z ECMWF BEFORE MAKING CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 5:12 AM PDT FRIDAY...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE
FOUND AT THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE MOSTLY FROM POINT REYES SOUTH ALL
THE WAY TO SOCAL. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXTENDING INTO THE
SALINAS VALLEY AS WELL. FOG JUST RECENTLY DEVELOPED AT KSTS...AMENDED
12Z TAF TO INCLUDE IFR TIL 16Z.
LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING TOGETHER FAIRLY WELL WITH ONLY
MINOR (~100-300 FEET) UP/DOWN FLUCTUATIONS SEEN IN THE MARINE
LAYER INVERSION OVERNIGHT. INVERSION BASES ARE 1000-1200 FEET. 500
MB HEIGHTS EDGE SLIGHTLY UP TODAY...ABOUT 1 DECAMETER...ONLY TO
LOSE THAT MUCH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE FLAT
TO DOWN SLIGHTLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
VICINITY OF KSFO...THE COMPRESSED MARINE LAYER IS HELPING TO REDUCE
THE CHANCES OF SEEING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AT THE TERMINAL THIS MORNING.
IT`S A HIGH PROB VFR FORECAST. LOWEST CONFIDENCE IS ACTUALLY IN THE
SURFACE WINDS FORECAST. WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD PICK UP THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT NOT SURE IF WE`LL SEE GUSTS UP OVER 20 KNOTS. THE
MARINE LAYER DEPTH WILL BECOME CRITICAL HERE AT THIS POINT WHEN
COUPLED WITH THE PREDICTED 4 MB SFO-SAC ONSHORE GRADIENT. IF THE
MARINE LAYER BECOMES A BIT DEEPER...EVEN JUST ANOTHER COUPLE HUNDRED
FEET...THEN WE COULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING GUSTS CLIMBING
UP TO THE 20-29 KNOT RANGE.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR...HIGH PROB THIS MORNING. LOW
CLOUDS PRETTY WELL LOCKED IN FOR THE MORNING HOURS. LOW TO MODERATE
CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR CLEARING BETWEEN 18Z-20Z TODAY. LOW
CLOUDS/IFR LIKELY RETURNING 03Z-05Z THIS EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 8:53 AM PDT FRIDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE STRONGEST
NORTH OF POINT REYES EARLY TODAY THEN SPREADING SOUTHWARD BY THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER SAN PABLO
BAY...SUISUN BAY...THE WEST DELTA AND SAN FRANCISCO BAY NORTH OF
THE BAY BRIDGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 4 PM
SCA...SF BAY FROM 2 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: MM
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1158 PM MDT THU JUN 11 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 747 PM MDT THU JUN 11 2015
UPDATE FOR EXPIRATION FO THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH...AND TO
INCORPORATE LATEST OBS DATA AND SATELLITE TRENDS. LATEST HRRR IS
SHOWING A BREAK IN THE PCPN LATER TONIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA...THEN ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN LATE TOMORROW MORNING.
MOORE
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM MDT THU JUN 11 2015
...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO...
UPPER TROF OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS COLORADO
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. WATCHING LIGHTNING BLOSSOMING ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS THE LA GARITAS AND SAN JUANS
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF INTO SW CO.
MEANWHILE...SURFACE FRONT LIES ACROSS THE AKRNASAS RIVER VALLEY IN
EASTERN CO...WITH DEW POINTS BEHIND IT IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S...THOUGH DEW POINTS FARTHER SOUTH ARE NOT ALL THAT MUCH
LOWER...STILL IN THE LOWER 50S. AS THE FRONT DROPS
SOUTHWARD...INCREASING SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD PUSH PRECIP WATERS
OVER AN INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...WHICH IS ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE AS FAR AS CLIMO GOES. FRONT HAS ALREADY BEEN THE
INITIATOR OF CONVECTION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH CAPES
RUNNING 1500+ J/KG...AND DEEP LAYER SHEARS RUNNING AROUND 40-50
KTS...INGREDIENTS CERTAINLY IN PLACE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY STORM THREATS...BUT
INITIAL INTENSE UPDRAFTS MAY BE ABLE TO SPIN UP A BRIEF TORNADO OR
TWO...ESPECIALLY ALONG ANY BOUNDARIES.
MEANWHILE...THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO
CARRY THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH PRECIP WATERS RUNNING
AROUND 160% OF NORMAL. HOWEVER...SUSPECT THAT INTENSE RAINFALL
RATES WILL BE A TAD SPOTTIER IN NATURE VS THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS
AND PLAINS. WITH AREA RIVERS ALREADY RUNNING HIGH DUE TO A DELAYED
SNOW PACK MELT OFF...ANY RAINFALL COULD EXACERBATE SWOLLEN CREEKS
AND STREAMS RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING. BASED ON NEW INFORMATION
CONCERNING THE SOUTH ARKANSAS RIVER BETWEEN PONCHA AND SALIDA
RUNNING HIGH...DECIDED TO ADD THE UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY TO THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY TRHOUGH FRIDAY.
TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONGEAL INTO A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
ACROSS EASTERN CO...THOUGH MODELS VARY ON HOW FAR NORTH OR SOUTH THE
CORE OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE AFTER 06Z. GIVEN THE FRONTAL
POSITION...THINK THE FARTHER SOUTH SOLN OF THE NAM MAY BE MORE
CORRECT VS THE GFS. FOLLOWING THE 4KM NAM12...2ND ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS TRIGGERED BY THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE I-
25 CORRIDOR BY 9 PM...THEN OUT ONTO THE PLAINS. SO BURN SCARS MAY
BE UNDER THE GUN A LITTLE LONGER THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. AS
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...EVENT MAY PROGRESS TOWARDS A FLASH FLOOD AND
EVENTUALLY A RIVER FLOOD EVENT...DEPENDING ON WHERE THE HEAVIER RAIN
FALLS AND HOW QUICKLY IT ROUTES INTO AREA RIVERS. GROUND IS PRETTY
SATURATED...AND RIVER IS ALREADY AT OR NEAR FLOOD STAGE AT PLACES
CANON CITY...AVONDALE...LA JUNTA. SO HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE WRONG
SPOTS COULD LEAD EXACERBATE HIGH WATER CONDITIONS.
MODELS STILL DIFFER ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS ALONG THE LOWER EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE SE MTS/PLAINS OVERNIGHT. UPSLOPE SURE BODES FOR
KEEPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HUNCH IS THAT NAM QPF IS OVERDONE IN WESTERN PUEBLO/EASTERN FREMONT
COUNTIES...LIKELY SUFFERING FROM SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. BUT
GIVEN ALL THE PARAMETERS IN PLACE...WILL NEED TO BE ON GUARD FOR
FLASH FLOODING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FRIDAY SHOULD START OUT FAIRLY WET. THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE AND SHEAR ARE MUCH LESS...AND ACTIVITY MAY BE
MORE TIED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND THE SOUTHERN BORDER AREAS. BUT
STEERING FLOW ALOFT LOOKS WEAKER TOO...SO CAN`T ARGUE WITH THE
DURATION OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 7 PM FRIDAY AT THIS
POINT...THOUGH EASTERN PLAINS MAY BE ABLE TO BE TAKEN DOWN SOONER.
-KT
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM MDT THU JUN 11 2015
FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...LATEST MODELS CONTINUE GENERALLY WEAK WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE STATE WITH A WEAK BAGGY TROUGH
SLOWLY TRANSLATING ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA WHICH WILL LEAD TO DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS SEEM TO BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK ISSUES...AND WOULD EXPECT THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING STORMS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...MOST NUMEROUS OVER AND NEAR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH GOOD MOISTURE IN PLACE AND EXPECTED SLOW
MOVEMENT OF STORMS...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WILL REMAIN AN ISSUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS LOOKS TO SEND A FRONT ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH RESURGENCE OF MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW LEADING TO A POSSIBLE UPTICK IN STORMS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INCREASED WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
HELP TO DRY OUT THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA...THOUGH MAY ALSO LEAD TO STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO.
TUESDAY-THURSDAY...A DRYING TREND COULD BE IN THE OFFING AS
MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST A SLOW DRYING OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE LEADING TO MORE ISOLATED...DIURNALLY AND TERRAIN DRIVEN
CONVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM MDT THU JUN 11 2015
ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE
NIGHT...BUT AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...LOOK FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MORESO OVER THE PALMER DVD
BETWEEN 12-15Z. VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY...BUT LOOK FOR MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE E PLAINS INCLUDING KCOS AND KPUB
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH APPROX 20-22Z TOMORROW.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR COZ058>089-093>099.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOORE
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MOORE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
201 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM WEATHER TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...
MAINLY NORTHWEST OF A BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE LINE. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH PERHAPS A FEW LEFT OVER
SHOWERS...BUT DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER FOLLOWS LATER SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SOMETIME MONDAY...POSSIBLY
LINGERING INTO PART OF TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
2 PM UPDATE...
SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS ASSOCD WITH THE 850 MB WARM FRONT
MOVING N OF SNE WHILE SFC WARM SECTOR STILL A BIT SOUTH AND WEST
OF NYC AREA. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S ACROSS SNE WHILE SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY DEWPOINTS ARE NEAR 70. IT APPEARS THE TRUE WARM
SECTOR WILL REMAIN MOSTLY WEST OF SNE THROUGH EARLY EVENING WHICH
WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. MAIN FOCUS FOR TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS PA AND NY WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR AND AXIS OF MAX INSTABILITY. LOW PROB AN ISOLD
STORM COULD SPILL INTO FAR W ZONES TOWARD EVENING AND HRRR BRINGS
SOME CONVECTION INTO BERKSHIRES AROUND 7 PM.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE KEEPS CONVECTION MAINLY WEST OF NEW ENG
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHERE BEST INSTABILITY. ALSO THERE IS A
SHARP GRADIENT TO THE INSTABILITY JUST TO THE WEST SO STORMS WILL
LIKELY WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO NEW ENG AS THEY MOVE AWAY FROM
MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. STILL LOW RISK OF AN ISOLD STRONG
STORM SPILLING INTO W MA AND NW CT LATE TODAY/EARLY EVENING GIVEN
FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES. PWATS ALSO INCREASE WITH THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM...ON ORDER OF 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES SO POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH ANY TSTMS.
850 MB TEMPS RISE TO +15C TO +18C THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 80S AWAY FROM THE S COAST...THOUGH A FEW SPOTS MIGHT
NUDGE 90...BUT IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WILL SEE LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH AROUND 02Z WITH
FIRST SHORT WAVE PASSING E...SOME MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK...THEN ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE APPROACHES PASSING LOW PRES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY MAINLY
ACROSS N OF THE MASS PIKE. INSTABILITY BECOMES ELEVATED...SO CAN
NOT RULE OUT STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH THE CONTINUED HIGH PWATS.
COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION BUT WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
NIGHT. DEWPTS REMAIN HIGH...SO EXPECT TEMPS NOT TO FALL TOO LOW
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL ONLY FALL TO BETWEEN 65 AND 70...EXCEPT THE
LOWER-MID 60S ALONG THE S COAST WITH ONSHORE WINDS KEEPING
READINGS A BIT LOWER THERE OFF THE COOLER WATER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* A FEW LEFT OVER SHOWERS POSSIBLE SAT AM
* OTHERWISE DRY/SEASONABLE WEATHER THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
* PERIOD OF SCT SHOWERS/ISO STORMS MON/MON NIGHT MAY LINGER INTO TUE
* DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY
DETAILS...
SATURDAY...
STILL SOME MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING. LEFT OVER SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE MORNING...DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...DRYING MID LEVEL AIR AND DIMINISHING
INSTABILITY WILL PROBABLY BRING AN END TO THE RISK FOR ANY
CONVECTION/LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL BY DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE...UNCERTAIN ON HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS WILL BREAK. MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS INDICATE THERE COULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AROUND AT
LEAST INTO MID AFTERNOON SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE...BUT SHOULD SEE
SOME SUN EVENTUALLY EMERGE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. HIGH TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE 70S ON THE COAST AND BETWEEN 80 AND 85 INLAND.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL RESULT IN MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES....PLEASANT TEMPS AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. LOWS SAT
NIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT WELL DOWN INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE OUTLYING
LOCATIONS...TO LOWER 60S IN THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND OF BOSTON. HIGH
TEMPS ON SUN WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S JUST INLAND FROM THE
COAST. ALONG THE COAST...SEA BREEZES WILL HOLD HIGHS IN THE 70S AND
A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY MAY HAVE TEMPS BETWEEN 65 AND 70 IN SOME
LOCALES.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
THE NEXT COLD FRONT/SHORTWAVE ARRIVES BRING A PERIOD OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SOMETIME MONDAY OR MONDAY
NIGHT...PERHAPS LINGERING INTO PART OF TUESDAY DEPENDING ON TIMING
OF FRONT. PWATS 2+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS MAY BRING BRIEF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE ACTIVITY...BUT THAT WILL DEPEND ON TIMING
AND WHERE BEST FORCING SETS UP.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN SHOULD BRING DRY AND SEASONABLE TEMPS
WEDNESDAY. PERHAPS THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THU OR FRI WITH THE
RISK FOR MORE SCATTERED PRECIPITATION...BUT VERY LOW CONFIDENCE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THROUGH 00Z...VFR. AN ISOLD STORM POSSIBLE IN W MA TOWARD 00Z.
TONIGHT...IFR STRATUS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING
AND GRADUALLY SPREAD INLAND DURING THE NIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
HOW FAR INLAND THE LOW CLOUDS WILL GET. AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY
BE CONFINED TO THE S COAST GIVEN SW FLOW. SHOWERS AND WEAKENING
TSTMS MAY BE MOVING THROUGH THE INTERIOR THIS EVENING WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS...THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT.
SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR IN THE CT VALLEY BY 12Z.
OTHERWISE...IFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT SHOWERS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE MORNING BUT MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL
AFTERNOON FOR CAPE/ISLANDS.
SAT NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR...BUT LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEABREEZE WILL GIVE
WAY TO SOUTH WIND BY LATE AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT. SEABREEZE REDEVELOPS BY EARLY AFTERNOON SAT.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. AN EVENING TSTM
POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY..HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS PROBABLY DEVELOP IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND/OR MONDAY NIGHT...BUT TIMING UNCERTAIN.
IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR SOMETIME TUESDAY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TODAY...EXPECT SW WINDS INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20 KT. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 4 FT.
TONIGHT...SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 20 KT. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS TO THE WATERS E OF
CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET SO HAVE RAISED SMALL CRAFTS THERE MAINLY
LATE TONIGHT. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NEAR
OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH
REDUCED VSBYS EARLY TONIGHT THAT MAY PUSH TO THE EASTERN WATERS
NEAR OR AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. 3 TO 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING...BEFORE DIMINISHING
BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. PATCHY FOG AND A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE SAT AM...BUT IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED BY
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFTS TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST LATE SAT MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF GUSTS IN THE LOWER 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
EXCELLENT BOATING WEATHER TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND WITH GOOD
VISIBILITY AS WELL.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MARGINAL SCA SOUTHERLY
WIND GUSTS AND SEAS MAY DEVELOP LATE MON INTO PART OF TUE AHEAD OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ254-
255.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...KJC/FRANK
MARINE...FRANK/EVT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
142 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL SURGE NORTH TO THE MOHAWK VALLEY BY THIS
EVENING...THEN SWEEP SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT STALLING IN
THE I80 CORRIDOR. THIS FRONT WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
SEVERE...THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH FAIR MAINLY DRY
WEATHER IN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. WITH THE FRONT STALLED JUST
SOUTH OF THE REGION...THERE COULD BE SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN TIER. THE FRONT WILL AGAIN SURGE BACK NORTH THROUGH OUR
REGION MONDAY AND RETREAT SOUTH TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER BOUT OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS EXPANDED THE AREA FOR THE SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA SO NOW IS
INCLUDES ALL OF OUR NEW YORK COUNTIES AND BERKSHIRE COUNTY. THEY
HAVE ALSO BROUGHT THE TORNADO PROBABILITY OUTLOOK BACK INTO THE
AREA WITH THE 5% CONTOUR ACROSS THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS WITH THE 2% OUTLOOK CORRESPONDING WITH THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA. KENX VAD WIND PROFILE NOW INDICATES SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS AT 2000 FEET TURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST BY 4000-5000 FEET. THE
WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE GRADUALLY NORTHWARD AND IT IS EXPECTED
TO STALL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...NORTH I-90. THE ATMOSPHERE IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND
LOW/SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE ELEMENTS ARE
COMING INTO PLACE FOR A SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING THE THREAT FOR
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION HAS BEEN ISSUED AND EXTENTS JUST INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA...MCD #986. SPECIAL 18Z ALY BALLOON BEING LAUNCH
WHICH WILL GIVE A US A GOOD LOOK AT THE ATMOSPHERE THE CONVECTION
WILL BE FIRING UP IN AND HELP DETERMINE TYPE OF WATCHES WHICH WILL
BE NEEDED.
PREVIOUS...BASED ON 12Z ALB SOUNDING AND SPC MESOANALYSIS
PAGE...STABLE AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS IN PLACE FOR NOW WITH SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WARM FRONT
PRODUCING THE CONVECTIVE CELLS WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE
DEGREE OF EVENTUAL INSTABILITY IS UNCERTAIN...AS THERE IS QUESTION
AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT WILL PROGRESS BEFORE STALLING.
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS MAY BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO PRECLUDE A
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...BUT THIS IS NOT CERTAIN. SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...OUR HI-RES WRF AND HRRR INDICATING DISCRETE CELLS WILL
MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WELL AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY BEFORE IT MOVES SOUTH. THERE IS CONCERN FOR ROTATING
STORMS DUE TO STRONG MAGNITUDE OF 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40+ KTS. WE WILL
BE CONDUCTING A SPECIAL SOUNDING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO OBTAIN A
BETTER ASSESSMENT FOR THE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT.
IT APPEARS THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH
MONITORING FOR ROTATION WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN DUE TO SHEAR
MAGNITUDE. LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY NOT BE A MAIN THREAT BUT CANNOT
BE RULED OUT IN TALLER UPDRAFTS AND IN ROTATING STORMS.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS SFC WAVE WILL INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY NORTH AND WEST.
THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE WAVE
COMPARED TO THE NAM. THE NAM ALSO IS COPIOUS WITH THE QPF COMPARED
TO THE ECMWF/GFS.
THE BEST SFC BASED INSTABILITY ON THE NAM IS WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY WITH 1000-2000 J/KG WITH MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS TO
THE EAST. THE GFS INCREASES SBCAPES TO 500-1000 J/KG FROM THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION SOUTH...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE
NORTH. IT WAS NOTED OVER CNTRL NY SBCAPES INCREASE TO 1000-3000
J/KG ON THE NAM...BUT SFC DEWPTS ARE IN THE LOWER 70S. SFC DEWPTS
SHOULD RISE IN THE 60S ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF OUR FCST WITH SOME
MID AND U60S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH. OUR THINKING IS THAT
THE SBCAPES WILL BE IN THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE LATE THIS PM WITH
THE HIGHEST VALUES FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND WEST. THE 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 35-45 KTS ESPECIALLY FROM THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION SOUTH. DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS
LIKELY. THE DEEP SHEAR IS EVEN STRONGER TO THE NORTH...BUT LESS
INSTABILITY IS PROGGED THERE. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STILL LOOK
RATHER WEAK IN THE 5-6C/KM RANGE. TOWARDS 00Z AND THEREAFTER...THE
0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES START TO INCREASE TO 20-30 KTS...WITH
VERY HIGH LOW- LEVEL HELICITY VALUES IN THE 100-300 RANGE. THE
PRIMARY MODE OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE BE
MULTICELLS EVOLVING INTO A LINE OR TWO...BUT SOME DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. ACTUALLY...WITH THE WAVE LIKELY
PASSING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND CNTRL VT...AND MCS MAY FORM
IN THE WARM SECTOR. AGAIN...THE TIMING LOOKS LIKE LATE THIS PM
/4-6PM/ BEFORE ANY STRONG CONVECTION POTENTIALLY REACHES THE WRN
DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY/CATSKILLS.
PWAT VALUES RISE TO 1.50-2.0 INCHES IN THE MOIST AIR MASS. SOME
HIGHER VALUES ARE EVEN EVIDENT IN THE BUFKIT PROFILES FOR
KALB/KPOU/KGFL. INTENSE RAINFALL RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE NAM HAS BEEN
PERSISTENT WITH A ONE TO THREE INCH AREA OF RAINFALL OVER THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/SRN ADIRONDACKS/LAKE GEORGE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. IT SEEMS BE ON ITS OWN AT THIS POINT COMPARED TO THE
GFS/ECMWF/CAN GGEM.
TONIGHT...WE EXPECT THE SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...BUT DWINDLE TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. THE INSTABILITY REALLY
DIMINISHES SHORTLY BEFORE OR AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS THE SFC WAVE
PASSES DOWNSTREAM STREAM OVER NEW ENGLAND...AND THE COLD FRONT
SLIDES SOUTH. THE POTENTIAL WILL STILL EXIST FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE POPS DIMINISH NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION AFTER 06Z...AND WE
KEPT CHC POPS TO THE SOUTH THEREAFTER. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE MID AND U60S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH...AND U50S TO L60S
WELL TO THE NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD CONTINUES THE THEME OF FCA ON THE BATTLE LINES BETWEEN
HOT HUMID AIRMASS...AND WARM MODERATE ONE. THERE`S SOME SPREAD
AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS PARTICULARLY BY LATE SUNDAY.
AT 500HPA RIDGE BUILDS INTO GRTLKS RGN...AS ONE OR TWO VORT MAXES
RIDE TROUGH IT. INITIALLY SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS SOUTH OF
FCA ALONG I80 CORRIDOR. -SHRA AND TSTM ACTIVITY ENDS IN MOST AREAS
BFE FCST PERIOD. SFC HIGH OVER ONT/QB BUILDS EAST...BUT NOT AS
FAR SOUTH AS PVS DAYS GUID. THE GFS KEEPS MORE CLOUDS ACROSS S
TIER AND SLIGHT CHC -SHRA/TSTM AS WELL SAT. THE NAM/GEM/ECMWF PUSH
THE CLOUDS AND FRONT FURTHER SOUTH...AND KEEP ENTIRE AREA DRY THROUGH
SUN. AT ALB PVS GEFS ENSEMBLES KEEP PCPN OUT TILL LATE SUN NT.
SO ALL AND ALL A FAIR DRY WEEKEND. MS NORTH...PS SOUTH.
SUN NT THE NEXT SHORT WV RIDES OVER THE TOP OF THE 500HPA RIDGE
WITH ITS ASSOC SFC LOW MVNG INTO UPR GRTLKS. THIS SURGES THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NE AS A WMFNT TO SYR-DCA LINE SUN NT...WHICH
SURGES NE THROUGH OUR FCA MON...PLACING ENTIRE AREA IN MUGGY
AIRMASS. MON NT OR EARLY TUES...THE SFC LOW HAS MOVED TO MAINE AND
DRAGS A TRAILING CDFNT THROUGH FCA.
MODELS HAVE SOME SPREAD IN TIMING OF THESE EVENTS...BUT NOT THE
EVENTS THEMSELVES. THE OPERATIONAL GFS/NAM ARE SLOWER BRINGING
INCRG CLOUDS AND INCRG THREAT OF SHRA/TSTMS WITH MON/TUES SYSTEM
INTO RGN MIDDAY MON. THE GEM/12 UTC ECMWF/GEFS ENSEMBLES/WPC
BRING THEM IN SUN NT. AT THIS POINT WILL BRING CHC TSTMS/SHRA TO W
PERIPHERY SUN NT AND ACROSS FCA MON TAKING A CONSENSUS VIEW. MAY
ADJUST DEPENDING ON ECMWF. TEMPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE ABV
NORMALS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE WAR OF THE AIR MASSES CONTINUES AS FCA IS ON S EDGE OF THE
WESTERLYS UNDER A FLAT RIDGE AS HIEGHTS GRADUALLY BUILD AT 500 HPA
AS DOES THE RIDGING ON THE E SEABOARD.
TUE THE BOUNDARY...AT THIS MOMENT A CDFNT DROPS SOUTH THRU FCA AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GRTLKS LKS. SHRA END IN THE
MRNG...AND GENERALLY FAIR AND DRY CONDS RESULT TUES AFTN THROUGH
WED.
WED NT INTO THU NEXT SHORT WV MVS INTO THE UPR GRT LKS...AS SFC HIGH
DEPARTS OFFSHORE. WAA INCR BACK INTO NEW YORK AND NEW ENG...AS FNT
MOVES TO ERI-PHL LINE THU MRNG...AND N TO MHWK VLY BY END OF
EFP(ECMWF) AND AS FAR N AS I-80 IN GFS.
BOTH MDLS IMPLY SOME KINDA MCS ACROSS MID ATLC RGN WED NT INTO
THU...WITH THE GFS BRINGING PCPN AS FAR N AS MHWK VLY...AND ECMWF
KEEPING IT IN PA/NJ. WPC KEEPS FRONTS AND PCPN CHCS S OF FCA THU
THU.
FOR NOW WILL CARRY CHC TSTMS WED NT INTO THU. WILL INITIALLY POPULATE
WITH HPC...BUT ADJUST CONSIDERABLY TO FIT ECMWF/GUID. TEMPS WILL BE
NR NORMAL...TRENDING BLO DURING THIS PERIOD AS FCA IS LARGELY ON
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONTS.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WARM FRONT CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL STALL ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT STARTS TO PUSH SOUTHWARD
AS A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
POSSIBLY MULTIPLE ROUNDS LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING HOURS.
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR TSRA WILL BE FROM KGFL-KALB-KPSF SO
WILL MENTION TEMPO GROUP FOR THESE TERMINALS...WITH VCSH AT KPOU
WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER PROBABILITIES.
CHANCES FOR THUNDER WILL DECREASE AFTER 04Z SATURDAY...WITH A FEW
HOURS OF -SHRA POSSIBLE AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. BRIEF OR
OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS
AS WELL AS THE COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH VFR SHOULD PREVAIL MUCH OF THE
TIME. SKIES WILL CLEAR SATURDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER
AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-10 KTS...ALTHOUGH MUCH STRONGER
WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY TSRA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATER
TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING...AS A
STATIONARY FRONT MOVES BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. THE WARM
FRONT WILL USHER IN A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS...ALONG WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A MAINLY DRY WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TO 40 AND 55 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 90 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...AND LOWER TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND BE 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY WHERE A COLD
FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL RESULTING IN LOCALIZED FLOODING URBAN/SMALL STREAM
FLOODING. ALSO...DEPENDING ON EXACT LOCATIONS OF THUNDERSTORMS...
THEY COULD TRIGGER SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANKFULL RISES ON SOME
RIVERS...MAINLY FROM THE MOHAWK RIVER NORTHWARD INTO THE
ADIRONDACKS. THE WPC QPF WAS USED FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST
WITH A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OR SO...THOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THERE COULD BE A FEW MORE SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT MOVES WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. SOME THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL
ONCE AGAIN.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/JPV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...JPV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...JPV/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
916 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE WATERS OFF THE DELMARVA COAST.
THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD BEFORE STALLING ON
SUNDAY. IT IS THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE NORTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ANTICIPATED TO APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY AND IT IS FORECAST TO STALL AND
MEANDER ACROSS OR NEAR OUR REGION FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CDFNT WAS LOCATED ACRS THE NRN DELMARVA AND EXTREME S JERSEY.
HOWEVER, A FEW TSTORMS TRIED TO GET GOING EARLIER ALG THE DELMARVA
AND QUICKLY DISSIPATED AND WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING,
CURRENT RADAR IS NOT SHOWING ANY ACTIVITY. LATEST HRRR IS NOT VERY
BULLISH ON ANY ACTIVITY EITHER. SO WILL KEEP SOME VERY LOW POPS
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS THEN DROP THEM TO NIL. OTHERWISE, NO SIG
CHANGES.
WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A BIT MORE
COMFORTABLE THAN RECENT NIGHTS, ALONG WITH THE LESS HUMID AIR MASS SETTLING
DOWN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE TOOK A BLEND OF MET/MAV
GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY AND EXPECT LOWS TO MAINLY RANGE FROM THE
LOW 60S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
SUNDAY, WITH RIDGING ALOFT EXTENDING OVER OUR REGION. HOWEVER, THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL HAVE STALLED TO OUR SOUTH AND
WEST, MOST LIKELY EXTENDING FROM AROUND THE VIRGINIA TIDEWATER
NORTHWESTWARD BACK THROUGH CENTRAL PA. THIS NEARBY BOUNDARY AND A
DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE OVER OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON MAY
TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY FOR OUR
WESTERN ZONES. WE GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS FROM CHANCE TO LIKELY
DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING FOR THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA, WITH SOME LOWER POPS ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE LATE-DAY
PERIOD. ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS, ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP AND
MOVE INTO THE AREA WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS,
AS PWATS WILL BE APPROACHING 2.0 INCHES LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION.
MET/MAV GUIDANCE WITH A FEW ADJUSTMENTS WAS PRIMARILY USED FOR
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES, AND WE ANTICIPATE HIGHS TO MAINLY BE IN THE
80S FOR THE FORECAST AREA, WITH SOME COOLER 70S AT THE COAST AND
PERHAPS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MEAN LOCATION OF THE POLAR JET IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN STATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
AS A RESULT, THE MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT ZONAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT PASSED THROUGH MOST OF OUR REGION THIS
MORNING SHOULD RETURN NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRAVELING IN THE MID LEVEL
FLOW AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD PROVIDE TRIGGERING MECHANISMS
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THAT PERIOD OF TIME. GULF
MOISTURE RIDING AROUND THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES IS
ANTICIPATED TO BE DRAWN INTO OUR REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. AS A
RESULT, ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
ONCE THE INITIAL FRONT LIFTS AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST FROM LATE
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO DROP
TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. THE BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OVER OR NEAR OUR REGION FOR THE PERIOD FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO THE ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW. AS A
RESULT, IT SHOULD BE A RATHER UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE PEAK DIURNAL
PERIOD FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN HIGH, SO HEAVY
DOWNPOURS REMAIN POSSIBLE.
IT IS ONE OF THOSE CASES WHEN THE FORECAST MAKES IT APPEAR AS
THOUGH THE WEEK WILL BE A WASHOUT WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
MENTIONED NEARLY EVERY DAY. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE
OF THE PRECIPITATION MOST OF THE PERIOD, ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE RAIN-FREE.
WE HAVE LOWERED THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES AND THE CLOUD
COVER FOR THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THERE
MAY BE A SLIGHT PUSH OF DRY AIR FOLLOWING THE INITIAL ARRIVAL THE
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND IT SHOULD AFFECT OUR REGION FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION. WE WILL INDICATE
ANOTHER DECREASE IN THE CLOUD COVER AND WE WILL LOWER THE CHANCE
OF RAIN AS WE GET INTO NEXT WEEKEND THOUGH THE CONFIDENCE IN SOME
DRYING AT THAT TIME IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH DUE TO THE NATURE OF
THE EXPECTED WEATHER PATTERN.
TEMPERATURES WILL FLUCTUATE LITTLE FROM DAY TO DAY IN THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN
THE 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO THE
LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS. NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS GENLY 6 KT OR
LESS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN SOME SPOTS.
SUNDAY...CONTINUED MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. LOWER CONFIDENCE THAT A
FEW SITES COULD FALL BELOW 6SM VISIBILITY AROUND DAYBREAK, AND
THIS WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL START
LIGHT AND VARIABLE, BECOMING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BETWEEN 5 TO 8
KNOTS FROM ABOUT MID-MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOME SCATTERED
SHWRS/T- STORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO EVENING, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
WESTERN SITES. HAVE ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR TSRA AT KABE AND KRDG,
BUT NOT CONFIDENT ON OCCURRENCE OR TIMING.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY.
THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. CONDITIONS SHOULD VARY BETWEEN VFR
AND MVFR WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS,
HAZE AND FOG.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS MAY
LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS DUE TO LOW
CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG.
&&
.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THE AREA
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 10
TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FEET AND A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
A DEVELOPING LONG PERIOD EAST TO SOUTHEAST SWELL ON MONDAY MAY
RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THAT TIME.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...KLINE/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/KLINE/NIERENBERG
MARINE...IOVINO/KLINE
RIP CURRENTS...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1252 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK BOUNDARY HAS SETTLED DOWN INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY. IT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD LATE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE HEADS
EASTWARD INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK. THE LOW REACHES THE MARITIMES SATURDAY
TRAILING THE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MIDNIGHT ESTF: SHOWERS ARE DRYING OUT RAPIDLY AND FASTER THAN THE
TENDING TO BE OVEREXUBERANT HRRR. RAP BETTER ON THIS TREND.
OUTFLOW HAS SUNK SOUTHWARD TO JUST NEAR I-95 AT 0430Z.
A WARM SUMMER NIGHT IS IN PROGRESS AND MUCH OF THE COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURE DEPARTURE FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE HAS BEEN
NEUTRALIZED AND CERTAINLY WE`LL BE BASIC NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
MONTH AFTER TODAY-THE 12TH IS COMPLETED.
DURING THE DAY TODAY...HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES WITH LITTLE CHANGE
IN OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PRIOR FORECAST TEAM/MODEL
CYCLE.
A POSSIBLE NEAR RECORD WARM DAY IS EXPECTED IN THE PHILADELPHIA
AREA (WITHIN 2F). WIND DIRECTION MAY PLAY A ROLE WHETHER WE CAN BE
WARM ENOUGH FOR NEAR RECORD...CERTAINLY 90-95 MUCH OF I-95.
LATEST AVBL GFS/ECMWF OP CYCLE 2M TEMPS FCSTS ARE 2-3F WARMER
THAN 18Z THU. 850 TEMPS ABOUT THE SAME SO I WONT BE BULLISH ON
FCSTG TEMPS 2-3F WARMER BUT A QUICKER START IS EXPECTED, POSSIBLY
BY 5 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY NEAR I-95.
CONVECTION: NON EXPECTED THIS MORNING. ITS POSSIBLE THE
DISSIPATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MIGHT IGNITE ISOLATED CONVECTION TO
ITS NORTH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON... I-80 TO I-78 E-W CORRIDOR BUT AM
THINKING NOT, SINCE MODELED KI IS UNDER 30C AT 18Z AS A DRY SLOT
IN KI DEVELOPS NEWD FROM VA AS WE WROTE/READ THIS DISCUSSION.
SO THEN WE LOOK TO MUCH IMPROVED CHANCES FOR CONVECTION MOVING
EWD FROM CENTRAL PA TO NEAR I-95 AROUND 00Z/13 WITH ISOLATED SVR
POTENTIAL. THE CAUSE IS THE APPALACHIANS LEE SIDE TROUGH.
HEAT ADVY CONTINUES.
GENERALLY 50 50 BLENDED 00Z/12 NCEP GUIDANCE WILL COMPRISE THIS
330 AM FRIDAY FCST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
THE PRIMARY COOL FRONT SHOULD BE SPAWNING UPSTREAM BANDS OF HEAVY
CONVECTION SO THAT ANYTHING OCCURRING THIS EVENING IN OUR AREA
DIES OUT BY 11 PM AND THEN FOLLOWED BY A PRIMARY DECAYING SQUALL
LINE ACROSS PORTIONS OF E PA AND NW NJ (ALONG AND N OF I-78) IN
THE 06Z-10Z TIME FRAME...DYING OUT AS SCT SHOWERS NEAR I-95 AT
DAWN SATURDAY. SPC WRF IS LACKLUSTER ON THIS HOLDING TOGETHER
AFTER 05Z INTO OUR AREA.
ANOTHER VERY WARM NIGHT. MIN TEMP PHL PROBABLY 75 TO 77F.
GENERALLY 50 50 BLENDED 00Z/12 NCEP GUIDANCE WILL COMPRISE THIS
330 AM FRIDAY FCST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE EARLY IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. DEW POINTS INTO SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S IN MOST AREAS. THIS COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 ON
SATURDAY WILL BRING HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE LOW 90S IN MANY
AREAS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SAT AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...BRINGING A CHC FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE PWAT VALUES BEING RATHER HIGH ACROSS THE
AREA.
WE WILL WRITE A DRY FCST FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY FOR NOW. THERE
SEEMS TO BE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE BACK
INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK NEAR SEASONAL NORMS...MAYBE
A DEGREE OR SO ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S SOUTH AND
UPPER 70S/LOW 80S NORTH.
THE CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS INCREASE AGAIN MON AFTERNOON AND THEY
CARRY INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND STALLS ACROSS THE AREA. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL TRIGGER
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT HOLD SHORT OF 90 DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH 12Z...VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT. LIGHT WIND...MOSTLY
SOUTH SOUTHWEST SOUTH OF KPHL AND VARIABLE KPHL NORTHWARD.
A LITTLE MVFR HAZE FOG POSSIBLE BY DAWN.
AFTER 12Z TODAY...VFR SCT CLOUDS AOA 6000 FT. ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE,
MAINLY AFTER 22Z KRDG/KABE. PROBABILITY WAS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
THE TAF BUT MAY ADD HERE AT 06Z ISSUANCE. LIGHT WIND THIS MORNING
TRENDING E-SE VCNTY KRDG/KABE/KTTN AND S-SW ELSEWHERE THEN
BECOMING SW EVERYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 15 KT.
TONIGHT...VFR SCT CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT WITH A POSSIBLE MVFR TSTM
WITH NW GUST 20-30 KT VCNTY KRDG/KABE AFTER 06Z ASSTD WITH PRE
COLD FRONTAL SQUALL LINE DYING OUT IN OUR AREA...HAVING ARRIVED
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND NW PA EARLIER FRIDAY EVENING. SW WIND
5-15 KT SHIFTING W TOWARD 10Z SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SUN THRU TUE...MOSTLY VFR. SHOWERS POSSIBLE MON AFTERNOON THRU
TUE.
&&
.MARINE...
SUB SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH GENERALLY S-SW WINDS
TRENDING SLIGHTLY ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED MUCH OF THE TIME. SCT TSTMS WILL
CREATE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS SATURDAY THRU SAT NIGHT.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
SURF ZONE AWARENESS CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY. MEDIA PLAY A LARGE
ROLE IN AWARENESS. EMPHASIS, FOR ULTIMATE SWIM IN THE PRESENCE OF
LIFEGUARDS!
MORE AT 4 AM.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NJZ015-017>019.
DE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA/DRAG 1252A
NEAR TERM...DRAG 1252A
SHORT TERM...DRAG 1252A
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA 1252A
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA 1252A
RIP CURRENTS...1252A
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
136 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
.AVIATION...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THIS MORNINGS AVIATION FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL KEEP AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA INTO AT
LEAST THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE
GENERAL RULE. BRIEF IFR MAY OCCUR UNDER HEAVY SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY IN THE INTERIOR AND ALONG THE GULF COAST.
THE WIND WILL RELAX SOME IN THE EVENING HOURS, THEN PICK UP AGAIN
IN THE MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1048 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015/
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE
EAST. THUS BELIEVE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BE RATHER LIMITED
AGAIN TODAY...AND WITH EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING
FLOW...CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST.
THIS IS DEPICTED BY THE HRRR AND ILLUSTRATED WELL IN THE ONGOING
FORECAST. NO FURTHER UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL BE SETTING UP ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WHICH TRANSLATES TO DEEP EASTERLY FLOW FOR
SOUTH FLORIDA. THE EASTERLY WIND WILL ALSO MEAN AN INCREASED
THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES. THIS WILL ALSO SET
THE PATTERN FOR MOSTLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONCENTRATED OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST. THE SAHARAN AIR
LAYER (SAL) IS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA GIVING THE SKY THE
HAZY APPEARANCE AND THIS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY.
THIS COULD HAVE AIDED IN THE SEVERE WIND GUSTS IN THE NAPLES AREA
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG STORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT SHOW TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE PWAT
FOR MID JUNE EITHER AT AROUND 1.75". IN FACT, BY LATE NEXT WEEK THE
GFS SHOWS STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND HENCE DRYING OF THE AIRMASS AS A
TUTT LIKE FEATURE APPROACHES THE BAHAMAS FROM THE EAST. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING LESS THAN .5" ACCUMULATION OF RAINFALL
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ALONG THE EAST COAST. SO MUCH FOR JUNE
BEING THE WETTEST MONTH OF THE CALENDAR YEAR!
MARINE...
AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND OF GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KNOTS WILL
DOMINATE THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS ACROSS BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 80 87 78 88 / 10 10 10 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 79 87 79 87 / 10 20 20 30
MIAMI 79 88 78 88 / 20 20 20 30
NAPLES 76 89 75 90 / 20 40 30 50
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...13/SI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1048 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE
EAST. THUS BELIEVE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BE RATHER LIMITED
AGAIN TODAY...AND WITH EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING
FLOW...CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST.
THIS IS DEPICTED BY THE HRRR AND ILLUSTRATED WELL IN THE ONGOING
FORECAST. NO FURTHER UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 731 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015/
AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL KEEP A GENERALLY EAST
FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST
OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO WARDS THE INTERIOR AND
GULF COAST EACH DAY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS, WITH BRIEF IFR
UNDER ANY CONVECTIVE CELLS THAT MOVE OVER THE TAF SITE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL BE SETTING UP ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WHICH TRANSLATES TO DEEP EASTERLY FLOW FOR
SOUTH FLORIDA. THE EASTERLY WIND WILL ALSO MEAN AN INCREASED
THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES. THIS WILL ALSO SET
THE PATTERN FOR MOSTLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONCENTRATED OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST. THE SAHARAN AIR
LAYER (SAL) IS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA GIVING THE SKY THE
HAZY APPEARANCE AND THIS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY.
THIS COULD HAVE AIDED IN THE SEVERE WIND GUSTS IN THE NAPLES AREA
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG STORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT SHOW TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE PWAT
FOR MID JUNE EITHER AT AROUND 1.75". IN FACT, BY LATE NEXT WEEK THE
GFS SHOWS STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND HENCE DRYING OF THE AIRMASS AS A
TUTT LIKE FEATURE APPROACHES THE BAHAMAS FROM THE EAST. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING LESS THAN .5" ACCUMULATION OF RAINFALL
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ALONG THE EAST COAST. SO MUCH FOR JUNE
BEING THE WETTEST MONTH OF THE CALENDAR YEAR!
MARINE...
AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND OF GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KNOTS WILL
DOMINATE THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS ACROSS BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 88 80 87 78 / 20 10 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 87 79 87 79 / 20 10 20 20
MIAMI 89 79 88 78 / 20 20 20 20
NAPLES 91 76 89 75 / 50 20 40 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...10/CD
AVIATION...13/SI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
920 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 920 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
WILL MAKE A QUICK UPDATE TO SPRUCE UP POPS/WX AND WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT TOO. REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS FINE. UPDATE
OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
MOIST DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO PROVIDE PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. ALTHOUGH
ATMOSPHERE ISN`T QUITE AS MOIST AS YESTERDAY (PER 12Z KILX
SOUNDING). POTENTIAL STILL REMAINS FOR SOME EFFICIENT CONVECTION
AND POSSIBLE PRECIP LOADING PRODUCING STRONG WINDS. ALTHOUGH
INITIAL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON HAS DEVELOPED IN SAME AREA AS
LAST NIGHTS LINE WHERE INSTABILITY AXIS REMAINS...LATEST MESOSCALE
MODELS SUGGEST PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING OVER MISSOURI WILL BE
BIGGER ORGANIZED THREAT AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN
ILLINOIS. INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL LIKELY BE PRIMED TO PRODUCE
LOCALIZED STRONG WINDS. IF ORGANIZED LINES CAN DEVELOP...THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS.
LATEST HRRR SUGGEST SCATTERED CONVECTION EAST OF I-55 WILL BE MORE
DIURNAL IN NATURE DRIVEN BY INSTABILITY AND A LACK OF SHEAR. MORE
SHEAR IS PROGGED OVER WESTERN ILLINOIS AND PRECIP MAY LINGER INTO
THE EARLY MORNING.
GROUND REMAINS LOCALLY SATURATED AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
LEADS TO SOME FLOODING POTENTIAL IN WESTERN ILLINOIS PER MPD ISSUED
BY WPC. AN ESF HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LONG-RANGE HEAVY RAIN THREAT AND
WILL MENTION POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IN GRIDS AND WORDED FORECASTS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 4 DAYS...AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS ACROSS ILLINOIS AND A LARGE RIDGE IN
THE SOUTHEAST STATES PROVIDES A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW INTO
ILLINOIS. PERIODIC SHORTWAVES, SOME CONVECTIVELY INDUCED, WILL
RIDE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE LARGE
UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE WAVES IN THE MODELS.
HOWEVER, THERE IS ENOUGH AGREEMENT OVER ABNORMALLY HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT AND MODERATE INSTABILITY THAT WE KEPT LARGE PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS IN LIKELY POPS EACH PERIOD THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
SEVERE CHANCES APPEAR TO BE HIGHER ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVE AND AGAIN
ON MONDAY, BUT WE CANT RULE OUT INCREASING CHANCES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THOSE DAYS GET CLOSER. PRECIP LOADING IN MANY
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE
DOWNBURST WINDS. 0-6KM WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 30KT,
WITH UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORMS TRAINING IN A
LINE. SO MAIN HAZARDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE DAMAGING WINDS AND FLASH
FLOODING. WILL MONITOR HAIL POTENTIAL, SINCE EVEN A SLIGHT LOWERING
OF THE FREEZING LEVEL WOULD INCREASE HAIL PRODUCTION.
WE CONSIDERED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH, BUT MODEL UNCERTAINTIES HAVE KEPT
A LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION SEEING THE AXIS OF HEAVY
RAINS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY IN THE COMING MODEL RUNS FOR
A POTENTIAL OPPORTUNITY TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA OF CONCERN. FOR NOW,
WILL HIGHLIGHT THE FLOODING THREAT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
THE FAR EXTENDED STILL CONTAINS POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY THROUGH
SATURDAY, BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT MAY SAG FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF OUR COUNTIES TO PROVIDE MORE SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN
THE RAIN CHANCES FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES NEXT 24HRS. CURRENT RADAR
LOOPS INDICATE THAT ONLY ONE SITE MIGHT HAVE PCPN...AND THAT IS
SPI OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SO WILL KEEP THEM WITH VCTS FOR
NOW. WITH ALL OTHER SITES WILL HAVE JUST SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS
AND BROKEN MID CLOUDS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. BY LATE
MORNING...EXPECTING MID CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE WITH SCATTERED CU
CONTINUING. IN THE EARLY MORNING...HIGH RES MODELS SHOW SOME LOWER
CLOUDS GETTING INTO ONLY PIA AND SPI TAFS SO HAVE A TEMPO TROUP
FOR BOTH SITES WITH BROKEN CIGS AROUND 2.5KFT. WINDS SHOULD BE
SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AUTEN
SHORT TERM...BARKER
LONG TERM...SHIMON
AVIATION...AUTEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
655 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
MOIST DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO PROVIDE PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. ALTHOUGH
ATMOSPHERE ISN`T QUITE AS MOIST AS YESTERDAY (PER 12Z KILX
SOUNDING). POTENTIAL STILL REMAINS FOR SOME EFFICIENT CONVECTION
AND POSSIBLE PRECIP LOADING PRODUCING STRONG WINDS. ALTHOUGH
INITIAL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON HAS DEVELOPED IN SAME AREA AS
LAST NIGHTS LINE WHERE INSTABILITY AXIS REMAINS...LATEST MESOSCALE
MODELS SUGGEST PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING OVER MISSOURI WILL BE
BIGGER ORGANIZED THREAT AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN
ILLINOIS. INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL LIKELY BE PRIMED TO PRODUCE
LOCALIZED STRONG WINDS. IF ORGANIZED LINES CAN DEVELOP...THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS.
LATEST HRRR SUGGEST SCATTERED CONVECTION EAST OF I-55 WILL BE MORE
DIURNAL IN NATURE DRIVEN BY INSTABILITY AND A LACK OF SHEAR. MORE
SHEAR IS PROGGED OVER WESTERN ILLINOIS AND PRECIP MAY LINGER INTO
THE EARLY MORNING.
GROUND REMAINS LOCALLY SATURATED AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
LEADS TO SOME FLOODING POTENTIAL IN WESTERN ILLINOIS PER MPD ISSUED
BY WPC. AN ESF HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LONG-RANGE HEAVY RAIN THREAT AND
WILL MENTION POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IN GRIDS AND WORDED FORECASTS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 4 DAYS...AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS ACROSS ILLINOIS AND A LARGE RIDGE IN
THE SOUTHEAST STATES PROVIDES A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW INTO
ILLINOIS. PERIODIC SHORTWAVES, SOME CONVECTIVELY INDUCED, WILL
RIDE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE LARGE
UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE WAVES IN THE MODELS.
HOWEVER, THERE IS ENOUGH AGREEMENT OVER ABNORMALLY HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT AND MODERATE INSTABILITY THAT WE KEPT LARGE PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS IN LIKELY POPS EACH PERIOD THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
SEVERE CHANCES APPEAR TO BE HIGHER ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVE AND AGAIN
ON MONDAY, BUT WE CANT RULE OUT INCREASING CHANCES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THOSE DAYS GET CLOSER. PRECIP LOADING IN MANY
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE
DOWNBURST WINDS. 0-6KM WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 30KT,
WITH UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORMS TRAINING IN A
LINE. SO MAIN HAZARDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE DAMAGING WINDS AND FLASH
FLOODING. WILL MONITOR HAIL POTENTIAL, SINCE EVEN A SLIGHT LOWERING
OF THE FREEZING LEVEL WOULD INCREASE HAIL PRODUCTION.
WE CONSIDERED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH, BUT MODEL UNCERTAINTIES HAVE KEPT
A LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION SEEING THE AXIS OF HEAVY
RAINS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY IN THE COMING MODEL RUNS FOR
A POTENTIAL OPPORTUNITY TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA OF CONCERN. FOR NOW,
WILL HIGHLIGHT THE FLOODING THREAT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
THE FAR EXTENDED STILL CONTAINS POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY THROUGH
SATURDAY, BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT MAY SAG FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF OUR COUNTIES TO PROVIDE MORE SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN
THE RAIN CHANCES FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES NEXT 24HRS. CURRENT RADAR
LOOPS INDICATE THAT ONLY ONE SITE MIGHT HAVE PCPN...AND THAT IS
SPI OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SO WILL KEEP THEM WITH VCTS FOR
NOW. WITH ALL OTHER SITES WILL HAVE JUST SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS
AND BROKEN MID CLOUDS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. BY LATE
MORNING...EXPECTING MID CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE WITH SCATTERED CU
CONTINUING. IN THE EARLY MORNING...HIGH RES MODELS SHOW SOME LOWER
CLOUDS GETTING INTO ONLY PIA AND SPI TAFS SO HAVE A TEMPO TROUP
FOR BOTH SITES WITH BROKEN CIGS AROUND 2.5KFT. WINDS SHOULD BE
SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BARKER
LONG TERM...SHIMON
AVIATION...AUTEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1052 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1041 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN FROM RECENT STORMS HAS LED TO FLOODING IN
MANY LOCATIONS...SEE THE LATEST STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS. IN THE
NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE TOWARDS MORNING. OTHERWISE...LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 60S AND LOW TO MID 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
AIRMASS BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTN WITH RAP ANALYSIS
SUGGESTING MLCAPES 2.0-2.5KJ/KG. WINDS ALOFT HAVE DECREASED SOME
SINCE YDAY AS RIDGE HAS BUILT NNW FROM THE SERN CONUS... STILL MODEST
SWLY FLOW WAS RESULTING IN EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 25-30KT
ACROSS THE AREA WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO THERE IS SOME DRY AIR ALOFT EVIDENT ON THE WATER
VAPOR LOOP AND BUFR FCST SOUNDINGS RESULTING IN MAX SFC DELTA
THETA-E VALUES >30K... SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR MICROBURSTS AND
CONSIDERABLE CAPE THROUGH THE -10C TO -30C LAYER SUPPORTING HAIL
GROWTH WITH ANY DEEP CONVECTION. MAIN FORCING MECHANISM APPEARS
TO BE A WK SHRTWV MOVG NE ACROSS NWRN IL WITH STORMS NOW DVLPG TO
ITS S-SE ACROSS CENTRAL IL/IN.
ANOTHER SHRTWV OVER THE SRN PLAINS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE INTO THE
WRN GRTLKS REGION TONIGHT AND THEN EAST OVER THE TOP OF THE SERN
CONUS RIDGE ON SUNDAY. EXPECT AN MCS WILL DEVELOP AT NOSE OF LLJ
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE TONIGHT IMPACTING NWRN PORTION OF THE
CWA FIRST... THEN SHIFTING EAST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. GIVEN
THIS EXPECTATION WILL BE BUMPING UP POPS FROM CHC TO LIKELY FOR
TONIGHT OVER MOST OF THE CWA... WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE TO GOING
LIKELYS FOR SUNDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL A POSSIBILITY IN THIS TIMEFRAME
GIVEN PWATS AROUND 2"... SMALL FCST MBE VECTORS... AND EXPECTED
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH LOWS TONIGHT AROUND 70. EXPECT CLOUDS
SHOWERS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO HOLD TEMPS DOWN A BIT OVER RECENT DAYS
ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS FCST IN THE L80S.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL PERSIST OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL APPROACH
THE JUNE CLIMATOLOGICAL RECORDS NEAR 2.25 INCHES ON SEVERAL
OCCASIONS. GIVEN A LONG DURATION OF THESE HIGH VALUES...CAPE VALUES
GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000 J/KG COMBINED WITH A DEEP WARM CLOUD
LAYER...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING FLOODING.
HAVE UPDATED THE HYDROLOGICAL OUT THAT WAS ISSUED TO REFLECT THE
RISK OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING. WPC/NCEP WAS INDICATING A SEVEN DAY
AXIS OF 6 INCHES OF HEAVY RAIN NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVED FROM ILLINOIS
TO OHIO. THESE HIGH AMOUNTS ARE SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST RUNS OF THE
GFS...ECMWF AND THE CANADIAN GEM. ALSO...RECENT RAINFALL ANALYSIS BY
AHPS SHOW 2 WEEK TOTAL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 2 AND 6 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY
7 INCHES OF RAIN. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS SINCE MAY 31ST ARE SUPPORTED
BY COCORAHS OBSERVATIONS. ALL CONDSIDERED...HAVE UPDATED THE ESF
STATEMENT WITH THESE CONCERNS. OTHERWISE...THERE COULD BE A SHORT
BREAK IN THE HUMID PATTERN LATE THIS WEEK...BUT FOR NOW...WAS
HESITANT TO LOWER SUPERBLEND RAIN CHANCES. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES
APPEAR FAIRLY LOW THIS PERIOD...NOT COUNTING THE CHANCES FOR
FLOODING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
SCT TS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN AND PRBLY HAVE SOME IMPACT ON THE
TERMINALS. ADDED GUSTY WINDS TO THE TEMPO TS GROUP AS DRY MID LEVELS
WILL SUPPORT MICROBURSTS WITH ANY DEEP CONVECTION. SHRTWV EXPECTED TO
LIFT NE FROM THE PLAINS ACROSS THE WRN GRTLKS TONIGHT. INCREASE IN LLJ
TO SE OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD FOCUS CONVECTION ACROSS NWRN INDIANA
TONIGHT SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST OVERNIGHT. FCST SHRA WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
IN TAFS OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING... SOME EMBEDDED TS ALSO PSBL BUT
HELD OFF INCLUDING FOR NOW.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MF
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
745 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT. SOME STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 60S AND 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
AIRMASS BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTN WITH RAP ANALYSIS
SUGGESTING MLCAPES 2.0-2.5KJ/KG. WINDS ALOFT HAVE DECREASED SOME
SINCE YDAY AS RIDGE HAS BUILT NNW FROM THE SERN CONUS... STILL MODEST
SWLY FLOW WAS RESULTING IN EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 25-30KT
ACROSS THE AREA WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO THERE IS SOME DRY AIR ALOFT EVIDENT ON THE WATER
VAPOR LOOP AND BUFR FCST SOUNDINGS RESULTING IN MAX SFC DELTA
THETA-E VALUES >30K... SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR MICROBURSTS AND
CONSIDERABLE CAPE THROUGH THE -10C TO -30C LAYER SUPPORTING HAIL
GROWTH WITH ANY DEEP CONVECTION. MAIN FORCING MECHANISM APPEARS
TO BE A WK SHRTWV MOVG NE ACROSS NWRN IL WITH STORMS NOW DVLPG TO
ITS S-SE ACROSS CENTRAL IL/IN.
ANOTHER SHRTWV OVER THE SRN PLAINS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE INTO THE
WRN GRTLKS REGION TONIGHT AND THEN EAST OVER THE TOP OF THE SERN
CONUS RIDGE ON SUNDAY. EXPECT AN MCS WILL DEVELOP AT NOSE OF LLJ
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE TONIGHT IMPACTING NWRN PORTION OF THE
CWA FIRST... THEN SHIFTING EAST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. GIVEN
THIS EXPECTATION WILL BE BUMPING UP POPS FROM CHC TO LIKELY FOR
TONIGHT OVER MOST OF THE CWA... WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE TO GOING
LIKELYS FOR SUNDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL A POSSIBILITY IN THIS TIMEFRAME
GIVEN PWATS AROUND 2"... SMALL FCST MBE VECTORS... AND EXPECTED
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH LOWS TONIGHT AROUND 70. EXPECT CLOUDS
SHOWERS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO HOLD TEMPS DOWN A BIT OVER RECENT DAYS
ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS FCST IN THE L80S.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL PERSIST OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL APPROACH
THE JUNE CLIMATOLOGICAL RECORDS NEAR 2.25 INCHES ON SEVERAL
OCCASIONS. GIVEN A LONG DURATION OF THESE HIGH VALUES...CAPE VALUES
GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000 J/KG COMBINED WITH A DEEP WARM CLOUD
LAYER...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING FLOODING.
HAVE UPDATED THE HYDROLOGICAL OUT THAT WAS ISSUED TO REFLECT THE
RISK OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING. WPC/NCEP WAS INDICATING A SEVEN DAY
AXIS OF 6 INCHES OF HEAVY RAIN NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVED FROM ILLINOIS
TO OHIO. THESE HIGH AMOUNTS ARE SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST RUNS OF THE
GFS...ECMWF AND THE CANADIAN GEM. ALSO...RECENT RAINFALL ANALYSIS BY
AHPS SHOW 2 WEEK TOTAL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 2 AND 6 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY
7 INCHES OF RAIN. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS SINCE MAY 31ST ARE SUPPORTED
BY COCORAHS OBSERVATIONS. ALL CONDSIDERED...HAVE UPDATED THE ESF
STATEMENT WITH THESE CONCERNS. OTHERWISE...THERE COULD BE A SHORT
BREAK IN THE HUMID PATTERN LATE THIS WEEK...BUT FOR NOW...WAS
HESITANT TO LOWER SUPERBLEND RAIN CHANCES. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES
APPEAR FAIRLY LOW THIS PERIOD...NOT COUNTING THE CHANCES FOR
FLOODING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 738 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
TSTMS ACTIVITY IS SUBSIDING THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPPED ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL S/WAVE WILL LIFT NEWD
TOWARD THE GTLKS REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. EXPECT MORE
WIDESPREAD SHRA SUNDAY MORNING FOR BOTH TERMINAL SITES WITH A
CHANCE FOR TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT MVFR CIGS WITH SW WINDS
IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE TMRW AFTN.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MF
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
137 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY EXPAND
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
THE MAIN CONCERNS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT
AND INTO TOMORROW.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1117 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WAS MOVG ACROSS OUR CWA LATE THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF SFC CDFNT WHICH EXTENDED FROM SW MI-SE IA. THIS
PRECIP SHOULD LIMIT DESTABILIZATION ACROSS NWRN PORTION OF CWA
AHEAD OF THE CDFNT. MAIN THREAT FOR SVR STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS
TO BE ACROSS THE SE 1/2 THIS AFTN. MINOR CHANGES MADE TO WX GRIDS
AND TEMPS TO REFLECT THESE ONGOING TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
WITHERING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH FGEN/ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY
TO STRUGGLE OUTSIDE OF OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES THROUGH THE MORNING
GIVEN BETTER FORCING AND LLJ/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/MUCAPE ARE STILL
DISPLACED JUST TO OUR WEST. THAT WILL CHANGE BY LATER TODAY AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND PARENT SHORTWAVE MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES. ADEQUATE SYNOPTIC FORCING IN A VERY MOIST AND AT
LEAST MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LEAD TO MOST AREAS
SEEING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT SOME POINT TODAY. QUESTION
REMAINS EXACT TIMING/EVOLUTION AND SEVERE CHANCES.
HI-RES MODELS ARE SPLIT ON HOW ROBUST THIS PREFRONTAL CONVECTION
WILL BE. HRRR AND RAP SUGGEST LITTLE MORE THAN SCT SHOWERS THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH MAIN ACTIVITY CONFINED TO THE AFTERNOON FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WRF-NMM INDICATES INITIAL LINE WILL BE MUCH MORE
ACTIVE...CAPITALIZING ON SOME DIURNAL RECOVERY BY 15Z IN OUR
SOUTHEAST HALF. TRUTH IS LIKELY SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. EXPECT SCT
CONVECTION TO STEADILY CHURN E/SE THROUGH MIDDAY BUT BEST CHANCES
FOR STRONGER/MORE ORGANIZED STORMS WILL BE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH MAIN FRONTAL PASSAGE. AS ALWAYS...EARLY DAY PRECIP
MAKES SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES NEBULOUS. EXCELLENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL MAKE CLOUD COVER/SOLAR HEATING LESS CONSEQUENTIAL
WITH LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS STILL GENERATING 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE
BUT PREFRONTAL CONVECTION COULD STILL THROW A LARGE MONKEY WRENCH
INTO THE WORKS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS AROUND 30 KTS (HIGHEST IN OUR
NORTHERN CWA) SO ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS ARE POSSIBLE. WIND PROFILE IS
FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SO STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND BOWING SEGMENTS ARE
THE PRIMARY CONCERN...THOUGH SOME HAIL IS POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH
INSTABILITY MANAGES TO BUILD. ALL OF THIS IS TO SAY THERE IS
DEFINITELY A CONDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS
THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE NAILING DOWN MORE SPECIFICS. ALSO A HEAVY
RAIN THREAT GIVEN PW VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES AND STORM MOTION NEARLY
PARALLEL TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LOCALIZED FLOODING CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
BUT CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD THREAT IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR WATCH
ISSUANCE. WILL JUST CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN
HWO AND GRIDS.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE/SHIFT SOUTHEAST BY LATE EVENING AND
EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S BUT ANY PEAKS OF SUN WILL MAKE UPPER 80S
EASILY ATTAINABLE. POSTFRONTAL OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE MUCH MORE
COMFORTABLE THAN PRESENT VALUES...UPPER 50S NORTHWEST TO MID 60S
SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO LONG TERM PERIOD AS OSCILLATING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS REMAIN IN RATHER
GOOD AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY FOR THIS PATTERN BUT A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DETAILS AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS.
BOUNDARY WILL BE SINKING SOUTH ON SATURDAY BUT REMAINING CLOSE
ENOUGH TO SOUTH FOR LOW CHANCE POPS AS EXACT LOCATION YET TO BE
DETERMINED. RESIDUAL CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE NORTH OF
FRONT. BOUNDARY BEGINS TO COME BACK NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
WITH INCREASING CONVECTIVE CHANCES ONCE AGAIN. PLENTY OF MOISTURE
FLUX AND INSTABILITY PRESENT SO WILL NOT TAKE MUCH FOR PERIODIC SHRA
AND TSRA THROUGH MONDAY. FRONT LOOKS TO SAG SOUTH OF AREA ONCE AGAIN
TOWARD TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SKIRTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
TRIES TO DRY US OUT FOR A DAY. WILL STILL CARRY A LOW POP WITH
UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION. LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
COME BACK NORTH TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
POSSIBLE THROUGH END OF PERIOD. EPISODIC ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER
REMAIN POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON TIMING OF FRONT AND STRONGER
KINEMATICS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH
PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
WK CDFNT EXTENDS ACROSS SW MI/NE IL THIS AFTN. A LINE OF TSTMS HAS
FORMED ALONG PRE-FRONTAL TROF OVER NE INDIANA AND NW OHIO AND
MOVED THROUGH FWA BTWN 16-17Z. MAY BE SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION
AT FWA FOR TSTMS TO REDEVELOP ALONG CDFNT AS IT SAGS SE THIS AFTN
SO LEFT IN TEMPO TSRA BUT LIMITED TO JUST SHRA AT SBN. STRATUS/FOG
FAIRLY EXTENSIVE ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT AND SHOULD IMPACT SBN THIS
AFTN THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AND FWA THIS EVE THROUGH SAT
MORNING WITH MIXING PROBABLY ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO
VFR BY MIDDAY.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JT
SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...JT
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
105 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AND TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL STALL ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY...THEN RETURN BACK
NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS FRONT WILL
OSCILLATE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...MAINTAINING
DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 952 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
.UPDATE...A LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AND WAS SPREADING INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA. IT APPEARS
THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT NORTHWEST SECTIONS A LITTLE EARLIER.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT MOST OTHER AREAS MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. OVERALL CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK.
TWEAKED TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF. BUT OVERALL
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.
PORTION OF PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
COMBINATION OF STRONG DIURNAL HEATING AND EXPANSION OF 40KT LOW
LEVEL JET INTO THE REGION WILL PROMOTE AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING BY MIDDAY
AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HRRR CONTINUES TO
BE RATHER AGGRESSIVE IN MORE EXPANSIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE FORECAST
AREA BY 16Z WHICH LOOKS OVERDONE CONSIDERING LIMITED UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. WILL KEEP POPS PRIMARILY IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
EXPECTED SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT.
EXPECT AN UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES
AS THE LOW MOVES INTO NORTHERN INDIANA...WITH UPPER FORCING AND BL
SHEAR INCREASING. IN ADDITION...AXIS OF HIGHEST PRECIP WATER VALUES
AROUND 2 INCHES WILL POOL ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. COMBINED WITH
EXPECTED TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S...THIS SHOULD PRODUCE AN AREA OF
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG BY LATE DAY.
HI-RES GUIDANCE PICKING UP ON THIS THINKING WITH ROBUST CONVECTION
DEVELOPING. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS HIGHEST FOR THE REGION
AS THIS ACTIVITY FORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPANDS SOUTH INTO
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. CERTAINLY ANTICIPATE A
DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING DRY ADIABATIC
FLOW UP THROUGH 800MB. LOCAL BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS BETWEEN STORMS
COULD CERTAINLY PRESENT POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO AS WELL.
STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINERS AS WELL WITH HIGH PWATS AND
FREEZING LEVELS IN THE VICINITY OF 15KFT.
TEMPS...ITS TEMPTING TO GO FOR A THIRD STRAIGHT DAY AT 90 IN
INDY...BUT CLOUD DEBRIS FROM MORNING STORMS TO OUR WEST AND
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED REDEVELOPMENT AS EARLY AS MIDDAY MAY BE A
BIT TOO MUCH TO OVERCOME. GENERALLY TOOK A MOS BLEND...WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. BEST SHOT AT LOWER 90S WILL
EXIST ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WILL FEEL DISTINCTLY
MORE HUMID TODAY AS MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DEWPOINTS
RISE TO AROUND 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE ON CONVECTIVE CHANCES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AT 00Z THIS EVENING...EXPANDING SOUTH
THROUGH MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE WEAKENING NEAR OR JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE THREATS MENTIONED ABOVE IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION WILL
PERSIST...ESPECIALLY THE DAMAGING WIND AND HEAVY RAIN. THE FOCUS
WILL SHIFT TO PRIMARILY TORRENTIAL RAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A LARGE
ABOVE FREEZING LAYER THROUGH 14-15KFT SUPPORTING WARM RAIN PROCESSES
AND STORMS WITH HIGH RAINFALL RATES. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY WITH THESE STORMS.
THE LOW WILL TRACK INTO OHIO WITH THE BOUNDARY SLIPPING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SHOULD
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST U S WILL EXERT ITS INFLUENCE WITH RIDGING ALOFT
EXPANDING INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER ENERGY MOVES AWAY
TO THE EAST. COMBINATION OF THE EXPANDING RIDGE AND LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL HELP TO PUSH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BACK NORTH INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY.
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS INSTABILITY LEVELS PEAK. IN THE ABSENCE OF FORCING
ALOFT...INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRIMARY CATALYSTS
IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. MOST STORMS WILL REMAIN SUBSEVERE...
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. AFTER A BRIEF DROP
SATURDAY...PRECIP WATER VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEAR SUMMER PEAKS IN
THE VICINITY OF 2 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM.
STORM MOTIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE SLOWER WITH WEAKER FLOW ALOFT...WITH
LOCALIZED SOAKERS. STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPS...A MOS BLEND LOOKED REASONABLE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIPPING INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY AND
EXPECTATION OF MORE CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
WARMER TEMPS WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY WITH THE EXPANSION OF THE RIDGE.
EXPECT LOWS FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
TYPICAL...IF SOMEWHAT ACTIVE...SUMMERTIME PATTERN EXPECTED FOR THE
COMING WORK WEEK WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IMPINGING UPON THE REGION
AND THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST COMBINING
TO NECESSITATE THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ESSENTIALLY EVERY PERIOD.
THAT SAID...DO NOT EXPECT A TOTAL WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS...AND HAVE
BUMPED MAX TEMPS UP A BIT EARLY IN THE WEEK AS A RESULT AS TYPICAL
MODEL TENDENCY TO OVERDO COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP IS LIKELY
IMPACTING MODEL TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT.
SHOULD SEE TEMPS NEAR TO JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 121800Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 105 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON CAUSING A TRAILING COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS TO
MOVE TO NEAR KLAF TONIGHT AND STALLING THERE LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE AT KIND...KHUF AND KBMG OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. WENT WITH PREDOMINATE CEILINGS AROUND 4 THOUSAND FEET
THROUGH TONIGHT AND SCATTERED CU WITH BROKEN MID CLOUDS SATURDAY
MORNING ON. VISIBILITIES COULD BE BRIEFLY 1 TO 2 MILES IN
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT OTHERWISE VFR.
KLAF MAY SEE PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN DIMINISH LATE
TONIGHT. ONLY EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20 T0 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS MOST OTHER
PERIODS AND MAY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES AT KLAF TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/JH
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...JH
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1129 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY EXPAND
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
THE MAIN CONCERNS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT
AND INTO TOMORROW.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1117 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WAS MOVG ACROSS OUR CWA LATE THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF SFC CDFNT WHICH EXTENDED FROM SW MI-SE IA. THIS
PRECIP SHOULD LIMIT DESTABILIZATION ACROSS NWRN PORTION OF CWA
AHEAD OF THE CDFNT. MAIN THREAT FOR SVR STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS
TO BE ACROSS THE SE 1/2 THIS AFTN. MINOR CHANGES MADE TO WX GRIDS
AND TEMPS TO REFLECT THESE ONGOING TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
WITHERING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH FGEN/ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY
TO STRUGGLE OUTSIDE OF OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES THROUGH THE MORNING
GIVEN BETTER FORCING AND LLJ/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/MUCAPE ARE STILL
DISPLACED JUST TO OUR WEST. THAT WILL CHANGE BY LATER TODAY AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND PARENT SHORTWAVE MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES. ADEQUATE SYNOPTIC FORCING IN A VERY MOIST AND AT
LEAST MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LEAD TO MOST AREAS
SEEING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT SOME POINT TODAY. QUESTION
REMAINS EXACT TIMING/EVOLUTION AND SEVERE CHANCES.
HI-RES MODELS ARE SPLIT ON HOW ROBUST THIS PREFRONTAL CONVECTION
WILL BE. HRRR AND RAP SUGGEST LITTLE MORE THAN SCT SHOWERS THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH MAIN ACTIVITY CONFINED TO THE AFTERNOON FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WRF-NMM INDICATES INITIAL LINE WILL BE MUCH MORE
ACTIVE...CAPITALIZING ON SOME DIURNAL RECOVERY BY 15Z IN OUR
SOUTHEAST HALF. TRUTH IS LIKELY SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. EXPECT SCT
CONVECTION TO STEADILY CHURN E/SE THROUGH MIDDAY BUT BEST CHANCES
FOR STRONGER/MORE ORGANIZED STORMS WILL BE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH MAIN FRONTAL PASSAGE. AS ALWAYS...EARLY DAY PRECIP
MAKES SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES NEBULOUS. EXCELLENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL MAKE CLOUD COVER/SOLAR HEATING LESS CONSEQUENTIAL
WITH LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS STILL GENERATING 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE
BUT PREFRONTAL CONVECTION COULD STILL THROW A LARGE MONKEY WRENCH
INTO THE WORKS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS AROUND 30 KTS (HIGHEST IN OUR
NORTHERN CWA) SO ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS ARE POSSIBLE. WIND PROFILE IS
FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SO STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND BOWING SEGMENTS ARE
THE PRIMARY CONCERN...THOUGH SOME HAIL IS POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH
INSTABILITY MANAGES TO BUILD. ALL OF THIS IS TO SAY THERE IS
DEFINITELY A CONDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS
THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE NAILING DOWN MORE SPECIFICS. ALSO A HEAVY
RAIN THREAT GIVEN PW VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES AND STORM MOTION NEARLY
PARALLEL TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LOCALIZED FLOODING CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
BUT CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD THREAT IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR WATCH
ISSUANCE. WILL JUST CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN
HWO AND GRIDS.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE/SHIFT SOUTHEAST BY LATE EVENING AND
EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S BUT ANY PEAKS OF SUN WILL MAKE UPPER 80S
EASILY ATTAINABLE. POSTFRONTAL OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE MUCH MORE
COMFORTABLE THAN PRESENT VALUES...UPPER 50S NORTHWEST TO MID 60S
SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO LONG TERM PERIOD AS OSCILLATING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS REMAIN IN RATHER
GOOD AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY FOR THIS PATTERN BUT A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DETAILS AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS.
BOUNDARY WILL BE SINKING SOUTH ON SATURDAY BUT REMAINING CLOSE
ENOUGH TO SOUTH FOR LOW CHANCE POPS AS EXACT LOCATION YET TO BE
DETERMINED. RESIDUAL CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE NORTH OF
FRONT. BOUNDARY BEGINS TO COME BACK NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
WITH INCREASING CONVECTIVE CHANCES ONCE AGAIN. PLENTY OF MOISTURE
FLUX AND INSTABILITY PRESENT SO WILL NOT TAKE MUCH FOR PERIODIC SHRA
AND TSRA THROUGH MONDAY. FRONT LOOKS TO SAG SOUTH OF AREA ONCE AGAIN
TOWARD TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SKIRTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
TRIES TO DRY US OUT FOR A DAY. WILL STILL CARRY A LOW POP WITH
UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION. LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
COME BACK NORTH TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
POSSIBLE THROUGH END OF PERIOD. EPISODIC ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER
REMAIN POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON TIMING OF FRONT AND STRONGER
KINEMATICS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH
PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 555 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SPREAD EASTWARD
TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE EXPECTED GIVEN DECENT FORCING AND VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT
BUT EXACT TIMING REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN. CURRENTLY EXPECT BEST
CHANCES FOR THUNDER DURING THE MIDAFTERNOON BUT COULD BE EARLIER
AT KSBN. GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BUT POSTFRONTAL CAA AND
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SOME STRATUS. IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KSBN WHILE CONFIDENCE AT KFWA IS LOWER.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JT
SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...AGD
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1024 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AND TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL STALL ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY...THEN RETURN BACK
NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS FRONT WILL
OSCILLATE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...MAINTAINING
DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 952 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
.UPDATE...A LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AND WAS SPREADING INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA. IT APPEARS
THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT NORTHWEST SECTIONS A LITTLE EARLIER.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT MOST OTHER AREAS MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. OVERALL CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK.
TWEAKED TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF. BUT OVERALL
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.
PORTION OF PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
COMBINATION OF STRONG DIURNAL HEATING AND EXPANSION OF 40KT LOW
LEVEL JET INTO THE REGION WILL PROMOTE AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING BY MIDDAY
AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HRRR CONTINUES TO
BE RATHER AGGRESSIVE IN MORE EXPANSIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE FORECAST
AREA BY 16Z WHICH LOOKS OVERDONE CONSIDERING LIMITED UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. WILL KEEP POPS PRIMARILY IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
EXPECTED SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT.
EXPECT AN UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES
AS THE LOW MOVES INTO NORTHERN INDIANA...WITH UPPER FORCING AND BL
SHEAR INCREASING. IN ADDITION...AXIS OF HIGHEST PRECIP WATER VALUES
AROUND 2 INCHES WILL POOL ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. COMBINED WITH
EXPECTED TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S...THIS SHOULD PRODUCE AN AREA OF
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG BY LATE DAY.
HI-RES GUIDANCE PICKING UP ON THIS THINKING WITH ROBUST CONVECTION
DEVELOPING. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS HIGHEST FOR THE REGION
AS THIS ACTIVITY FORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPANDS SOUTH INTO
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. CERTAINLY ANTICIPATE A
DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING DRY ADIABATIC
FLOW UP THROUGH 800MB. LOCAL BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS BETWEEN STORMS
COULD CERTAINLY PRESENT POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO AS WELL.
STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINERS AS WELL WITH HIGH PWATS AND
FREEZING LEVELS IN THE VICINITY OF 15KFT.
TEMPS...ITS TEMPTING TO GO FOR A THIRD STRAIGHT DAY AT 90 IN
INDY...BUT CLOUD DEBRIS FROM MORNING STORMS TO OUR WEST AND
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED REDEVELOPMENT AS EARLY AS MIDDAY MAY BE A
BIT TOO MUCH TO OVERCOME. GENERALLY TOOK A MOS BLEND...WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. BEST SHOT AT LOWER 90S WILL
EXIST ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WILL FEEL DISTINCTLY
MORE HUMID TODAY AS MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DEWPOINTS
RISE TO AROUND 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE ON CONVECTIVE CHANCES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AT 00Z THIS EVENING...EXPANDING SOUTH
THROUGH MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE WEAKENING NEAR OR JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE THREATS MENTIONED ABOVE IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION WILL
PERSIST...ESPECIALLY THE DAMAGING WIND AND HEAVY RAIN. THE FOCUS
WILL SHIFT TO PRIMARILY TORRENTIAL RAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A LARGE
ABOVE FREEZING LAYER THROUGH 14-15KFT SUPPORTING WARM RAIN PROCESSES
AND STORMS WITH HIGH RAINFALL RATES. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY WITH THESE STORMS.
THE LOW WILL TRACK INTO OHIO WITH THE BOUNDARY SLIPPING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SHOULD
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST U S WILL EXERT ITS INFLUENCE WITH RIDGING ALOFT
EXPANDING INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER ENERGY MOVES AWAY
TO THE EAST. COMBINATION OF THE EXPANDING RIDGE AND LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL HELP TO PUSH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BACK NORTH INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY.
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS INSTABILITY LEVELS PEAK. IN THE ABSENCE OF FORCING
ALOFT...INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRIMARY CATALYSTS
IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. MOST STORMS WILL REMAIN SUBSEVERE...
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. AFTER A BRIEF DROP
SATURDAY...PRECIP WATER VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEAR SUMMER PEAKS IN
THE VICINITY OF 2 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM.
STORM MOTIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE SLOWER WITH WEAKER FLOW ALOFT...WITH
LOCALIZED SOAKERS. STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPS...A MOS BLEND LOOKED REASONABLE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIPPING INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY AND
EXPECTATION OF MORE CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
WARMER TEMPS WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY WITH THE EXPANSION OF THE RIDGE.
EXPECT LOWS FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
TYPICAL...IF SOMEWHAT ACTIVE...SUMMERTIME PATTERN EXPECTED FOR THE
COMING WORK WEEK WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IMPINGING UPON THE REGION
AND THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST COMBINING
TO NECESSITATE THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ESSENTIALLY EVERY PERIOD.
THAT SAID...DO NOT EXPECT A TOTAL WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS...AND HAVE
BUMPED MAX TEMPS UP A BIT EARLY IN THE WEEK AS A RESULT AS TYPICAL
MODEL TENDENCY TO OVERDO COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP IS LIKELY
IMPACTING MODEL TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT.
SHOULD SEE TEMPS NEAR TO JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 121200Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1019 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
1415Z UPDATE...UPDATED TAFS TO INCLUDE EARLIER TIMING FOR SHOWERS
AT KIND AS SOME WEAK ECHOES JUST RECENTLY DEVELOPED TO THE SOUTH
OF THE RADAR...AND MORE WIDESPREAD SCATTERED SHOWERS/-TSRA MOVE
INTO THE KLAF AREA A LITTLE EARLIER THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED.
TIMING FOR KBMG AND KHUF MAY BE HELD BACK BASED ON LATEST TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
RAPID REFRESH MODEL IS BECOMING MORE SUGGESTIVE THAT BOUNDARIES FROM
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION TO THE WEST MAY BE ABLE TO FIRE UP SOME WIDELY
SCATTERED STORMS MID TO LATE MORNING...THUS HAVE MOVED UP VCTS
MENTION TO THIS TIME FRAME AND MAINTAINED IT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. UNFORTUNATELY MORE EXPLICIT TIMING IS EXTREMELY
DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH GUSTS TODAY
INTO THE MID 20KT RANGE POSSIBLE.
VISIBILITY ISSUES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED OUTSIDE OF STORMS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/JH
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...SMF/NIELD
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
952 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
.UPDATE...
NEAR TERM FOR THE REST OF TODAY HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AND TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL STALL ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY...THEN RETURN BACK
NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS FRONT WILL
OSCILLATE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...MAINTAINING
DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 952 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
.UPDATE...A LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AND WAS SPREADING INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA. IT APPEARS
THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT NORTHWEST SECTIONS A LITTLE EARLIER.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT MOST OTHER AREAS MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. OVERALL CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK.
TWEAKED TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF. BUT OVERALL
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.
PORTION OF PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
COMBINATION OF STRONG DIURNAL HEATING AND EXPANSION OF 40KT LOW
LEVEL JET INTO THE REGION WILL PROMOTE AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING BY MIDDAY
AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HRRR CONTINUES TO
BE RATHER AGGRESSIVE IN MORE EXPANSIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE FORECAST
AREA BY 16Z WHICH LOOKS OVERDONE CONSIDERING LIMITED UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. WILL KEEP POPS PRIMARILY IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
EXPECTED SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT.
EXPECT AN UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES
AS THE LOW MOVES INTO NORTHERN INDIANA...WITH UPPER FORCING AND BL
SHEAR INCREASING. IN ADDITION...AXIS OF HIGHEST PRECIP WATER VALUES
AROUND 2 INCHES WILL POOL ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. COMBINED WITH
EXPECTED TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S...THIS SHOULD PRODUCE AN AREA OF
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG BY LATE DAY.
HI-RES GUIDANCE PICKING UP ON THIS THINKING WITH ROBUST CONVECTION
DEVELOPING. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS HIGHEST FOR THE REGION
AS THIS ACTIVITY FORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPANDS SOUTH INTO
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. CERTAINLY ANTICIPATE A
DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING DRY ADIABATIC
FLOW UP THROUGH 800MB. LOCAL BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS BETWEEN STORMS
COULD CERTAINLY PRESENT POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO AS WELL.
STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINERS AS WELL WITH HIGH PWATS AND
FREEZING LEVELS IN THE VICINITY OF 15KFT.
TEMPS...ITS TEMPTING TO GO FOR A THIRD STRAIGHT DAY AT 90 IN
INDY...BUT CLOUD DEBRIS FROM MORNING STORMS TO OUR WEST AND
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED REDEVELOPMENT AS EARLY AS MIDDAY MAY BE A
BIT TOO MUCH TO OVERCOME. GENERALLY TOOK A MOS BLEND...WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. BEST SHOT AT LOWER 90S WILL
EXIST ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WILL FEEL DISTINCTLY
MORE HUMID TODAY AS MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DEWPOINTS
RISE TO AROUND 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE ON CONVECTIVE CHANCES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AT 00Z THIS EVENING...EXPANDING SOUTH
THROUGH MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE WEAKENING NEAR OR JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE THREATS MENTIONED ABOVE IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION WILL
PERSIST...ESPECIALLY THE DAMAGING WIND AND HEAVY RAIN. THE FOCUS
WILL SHIFT TO PRIMARILY TORRENTIAL RAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A LARGE
ABOVE FREEZING LAYER THROUGH 14-15KFT SUPPORTING WARM RAIN PROCESSES
AND STORMS WITH HIGH RAINFALL RATES. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY WITH THESE STORMS.
THE LOW WILL TRACK INTO OHIO WITH THE BOUNDARY SLIPPING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SHOULD
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST U S WILL EXERT ITS INFLUENCE WITH RIDGING ALOFT
EXPANDING INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER ENERGY MOVES AWAY
TO THE EAST. COMBINATION OF THE EXPANDING RIDGE AND LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL HELP TO PUSH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BACK NORTH INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY.
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS INSTABILITY LEVELS PEAK. IN THE ABSENCE OF FORCING
ALOFT...INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRIMARY CATALYSTS
IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. MOST STORMS WILL REMAIN SUBSEVERE...
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. AFTER A BRIEF DROP
SATURDAY...PRECIP WATER VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEAR SUMMER PEAKS IN
THE VICINITY OF 2 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM.
STORM MOTIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE SLOWER WITH WEAKER FLOW ALOFT...WITH
LOCALIZED SOAKERS. STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPS...A MOS BLEND LOOKED REASONABLE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIPPING INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY AND
EXPECTATION OF MORE CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
WARMER TEMPS WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY WITH THE EXPANSION OF THE RIDGE.
EXPECT LOWS FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
TYPICAL...IF SOMEWHAT ACTIVE...SUMMERTIME PATTERN EXPECTED FOR THE
COMING WORK WEEK WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IMPINGING UPON THE REGION
AND THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST COMBINING
TO NECESSITATE THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ESSENTIALLY EVERY PERIOD.
THAT SAID...DO NOT EXPECT A TOTAL WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS...AND HAVE
BUMPED MAX TEMPS UP A BIT EARLY IN THE WEEK AS A RESULT AS TYPICAL
MODEL TENDENCY TO OVERDO COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP IS LIKELY
IMPACTING MODEL TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT.
SHOULD SEE TEMPS NEAR TO JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 12/12Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 615 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
RAPID REFRESH MODEL IS BECOMING MORE SUGGESTIVE THAT BOUNDARIES FROM
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION TO THE WEST MAY BE ABLE TO FIRE UP SOME WIDELY
SCATTERED STORMS MID TO LATE MORNING...THUS HAVE MOVED UP VCTS
MENTION TO THIS TIME FRAME AND MAINTAINED IT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. UNFORTUNATELY MORE EXPLICIT TIMING IS EXTREMELY
DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH GUSTS TODAY
INTO THE MID 20KT RANGE POSSIBLE.
VISIBILITY ISSUES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED OUTSIDE OF STORMS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/JH
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...NIELD
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
615 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AND TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL STALL ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY...THEN RETURN BACK
NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS FRONT WILL
OSCILLATE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...MAINTAINING
DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD AREAS TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE INDY METRO EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY WEAKENING
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF ILLINOIS. SKIES WERE
MAINLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. TEMPS REMAINED IN THE
MID AND UPPER 70S AS OF 07Z.
06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN IOWA...WITH A
NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF
ILLINOIS...INDIANA AND OHIO. THE LOW WILL TRACK EAST ALONG THE
BOUNDARY TODAY...SERVING AS THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CURRENT MESOANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATING AXIS OF
DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST AS AREA OF
CONVECTION APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY TO
MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY IN A WEAKENED STATE NEAR AND
JUST AFTER DAYBREAK...BUT ANTICIPATE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS DRY THROUGH THE MORNING. COMBINATION OF STRONG DIURNAL
HEATING AND EXPANSION OF 40KT LOW LEVEL JET INTO THE REGION WILL
PROMOTE AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING BY MIDDAY AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. HRRR CONTINUES TO BE RATHER AGGRESSIVE IN MORE
EXPANSIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY 16Z WHICH LOOKS
OVERDONE CONSIDERING LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. WILL KEEP POPS
PRIMARILY IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR EXPECTED SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT.
EXPECT AN UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES
AS THE LOW MOVES INTO NORTHERN INDIANA...WITH UPPER FORCING AND BL
SHEAR INCREASING. IN ADDITION...AXIS OF HIGHEST PRECIP WATER VALUES
AROUND 2 INCHES WILL POOL ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. COMBINED WITH
EXPECTED TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S...THIS SHOULD PRODUCE AN AREA OF
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG BY LATE DAY.
HI-RES GUIDANCE PICKING UP ON THIS THINKING WITH ROBUST CONVECTION
DEVELOPING. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS HIGHEST FOR THE REGION
AS THIS ACTIVITY FORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPANDS SOUTH INTO
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. CERTAINLY ANTICIPATE A
DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING DRY ADIABATIC
FLOW UP THROUGH 800MB. LOCAL BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS BETWEEN STORMS
COULD CERTAINLY PRESENT POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO AS WELL.
STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINERS AS WELL WITH HIGH PWATS AND
FREEZING LEVELS IN THE VICINITY OF 15KFT.
TEMPS...ITS TEMPTING TO GO FOR A THIRD STRAIGHT DAY AT 90 IN
INDY...BUT CLOUD DEBRIS FROM MORNING STORMS TO OUR WEST AND
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED REDEVELOPMENT AS EARLY AS MIDDAY MAY BE A
BIT TOO MUCH TO OVERCOME. GENERALLY TOOK A MOS BLEND...WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. BEST SHOT AT LOWER 90S WILL
EXIST ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WILL FEEL DISTINCTLY
MORE HUMID TODAY AS MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DEWPOINTS
RISE TO AROUND 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE ON CONVECTIVE CHANCES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AT 00Z THIS EVENING...EXPANDING SOUTH
THROUGH MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE WEAKENING NEAR OR JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE THREATS MENTIONED ABOVE IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION WILL
PERSIST...ESPECIALLY THE DAMAGING WIND AND HEAVY RAIN. THE FOCUS
WILL SHIFT TO PRIMARILY TORRENTIAL RAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A LARGE
ABOVE FREEZING LAYER THROUGH 14-15KFT SUPPORTING WARM RAIN PROCESSES
AND STORMS WITH HIGH RAINFALL RATES. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY WITH THESE STORMS.
THE LOW WILL TRACK INTO OHIO WITH THE BOUNDARY SLIPPING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SHOULD
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST U S WILL EXERT ITS INFLUENCE WITH RIDGING ALOFT
EXPANDING INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER ENERGY MOVES AWAY
TO THE EAST. COMBINATION OF THE EXPANDING RIDGE AND LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL HELP TO PUSH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BACK NORTH INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY.
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS INSTABILITY LEVELS PEAK. IN THE ABSENCE OF FORCING
ALOFT...INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRIMARY CATALYSTS
IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. MOST STORMS WILL REMAIN SUBSEVERE...
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. AFTER A BRIEF DROP
SATURDAY...PRECIP WATER VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEAR SUMMER PEAKS IN
THE VICINITY OF 2 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM.
STORM MOTIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE SLOWER WITH WEAKER FLOW ALOFT...WITH
LOCALIZED SOAKERS. STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPS...A MOS BLEND LOOKED REASONABLE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIPPING INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY AND
EXPECTATION OF MORE CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
WARMER TEMPS WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY WITH THE EXPANSION OF THE RIDGE.
EXPECT LOWS FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
TYPICAL...IF SOMEWHAT ACTIVE...SUMMERTIME PATTERN EXPECTED FOR THE
COMING WORK WEEK WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IMPINGING UPON THE REGION
AND THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST COMBINING
TO NECESSITATE THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ESSENTIALLY EVERY PERIOD.
THAT SAID...DO NOT EXPECT A TOTAL WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS...AND HAVE
BUMPED MAX TEMPS UP A BIT EARLY IN THE WEEK AS A RESULT AS TYPICAL
MODEL TENDENCY TO OVERDO COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP IS LIKELY
IMPACTING MODEL TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT.
SHOULD SEE TEMPS NEAR TO JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 12/12Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 615 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
RAPID REFRESH MODEL IS BECOMING MORE SUGGESTIVE THAT BOUNDARIES FROM
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION TO THE WEST MAY BE ABLE TO FIRE UP SOME WIDELY
SCATTERED STORMS MID TO LATE MORNING...THUS HAVE MOVED UP VCTS
MENTION TO THIS TIME FRAME AND MAINTAINED IT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. UNFORTUNATELY MORE EXPLICIT TIMING IS EXTREMELY
DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH GUSTS TODAY
INTO THE MID 20KT RANGE POSSIBLE.
VISIBILITY ISSUES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED OUTSIDE OF STORMS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...NIELD
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
555 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY EXPAND
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
THE MAIN CONCERNS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT
AND INTO TOMORROW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
WITHERING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH FGEN/ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY
TO STRUGGLE OUTSIDE OF OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES THROUGH THE MORNING
GIVEN BETTER FORCING AND LLJ/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/MUCAPE ARE STILL
DISPLACED JUST TO OUR WEST. THAT WILL CHANGE BY LATER TODAY AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND PARENT SHORTWAVE MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES. ADEQUATE SYNOPTIC FORCING IN A VERY MOIST AND AT
LEAST MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LEAD TO MOST AREAS
SEEING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT SOME POINT TODAY. QUESTION
REMAINS EXACT TIMING/EVOLUTION AND SEVERE CHANCES.
HI-RES MODELS ARE SPLIT ON HOW ROBUST THIS PREFRONTAL CONVECTION
WILL BE. HRRR AND RAP SUGGEST LITTLE MORE THAN SCT SHOWERS THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH MAIN ACTIVITY CONFINED TO THE AFTERNOON FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WRF-NMM INDICATES INITIAL LINE WILL BE MUCH MORE
ACTIVE...CAPITALIZING ON SOME DIURNAL RECOVERY BY 15Z IN OUR
SOUTHEAST HALF. TRUTH IS LIKELY SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. EXPECT SCT
CONVECTION TO STEADILY CHURN E/SE THROUGH MIDDAY BUT BEST CHANCES
FOR STRONGER/MORE ORGANIZED STORMS WILL BE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH MAIN FRONTAL PASSAGE. AS ALWAYS...EARLY DAY PRECIP
MAKES SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES NEBULOUS. EXCELLENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL MAKE CLOUD COVER/SOLAR HEATING LESS CONSEQUENTIAL
WITH LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS STILL GENERATING 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE
BUT PREFRONTAL CONVECTION COULD STILL THROW A LARGE MONKEY WRENCH
INTO THE WORKS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS AROUND 30 KTS (HIGHEST IN OUR
NORTHERN CWA) SO ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS ARE POSSIBLE. WIND PROFILE IS
FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SO STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND BOWING SEGMENTS ARE
THE PRIMARY CONCERN...THOUGH SOME HAIL IS POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH
INSTABILITY MANAGES TO BUILD. ALL OF THIS IS TO SAY THERE IS
DEFINITELY A CONDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS
THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE NAILING DOWN MORE SPECIFICS. ALSO A HEAVY
RAIN THREAT GIVEN PW VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES AND STORM MOTION NEARLY
PARALLEL TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LOCALIZED FLOODING CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
BUT CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD THREAT IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR WATCH
ISSUANCE. WILL JUST CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN
HWO AND GRIDS.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE/SHIFT SOUTHEAST BY LATE EVENING AND
EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S BUT ANY PEAKS OF SUN WILL MAKE UPPER 80S
EASILY ATTAINABLE. POSTFRONTAL OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE MUCH MORE
COMFORTABLE THAN PRESENT VALUES...UPPER 50S NORTHWEST TO MID 60S
SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO LONG TERM PERIOD AS OSCILLATING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS REMAIN IN RATHER
GOOD AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY FOR THIS PATTERN BUT A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DETAILS AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS.
BOUNDARY WILL BE SINKING SOUTH ON SATURDAY BUT REMAINING CLOSE
ENOUGH TO SOUTH FOR LOW CHANCE POPS AS EXACT LOCATION YET TO BE
DETERMINED. RESIDUAL CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE NORTH OF
FRONT. BOUNDARY BEGINS TO COME BACK NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
WITH INCREASING CONVECTIVE CHANCES ONCE AGAIN. PLENTY OF MOISTURE
FLUX AND INSTABILITY PRESENT SO WILL NOT TAKE MUCH FOR PERIODIC SHRA
AND TSRA THROUGH MONDAY. FRONT LOOKS TO SAG SOUTH OF AREA ONCE AGAIN
TOWARD TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SKIRTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
TRIES TO DRY US OUT FOR A DAY. WILL STILL CARRY A LOW POP WITH
UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION. LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
COME BACK NORTH TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
POSSIBLE THROUGH END OF PERIOD. EPISODIC ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER
REMAIN POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON TIMING OF FRONT AND STRONGER
KINEMATICS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH
PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 555 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SPREAD EASTWARD
TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE EXPECTED GIVEN DECENT FORCING AND VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT
BUT EXACT TIMING REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN. CURRENTLY EXPECT BEST
CHANCES FOR THUNDER DURING THE MIDAFTERNOON BUT COULD BE EARLIER
AT KSBN. GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BUT POSTFRONTAL CAA AND
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SOME STRATUS. IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KSBN WHILE CONFIDENCE AT KFWA IS LOWER.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...AGD
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
455 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AND TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL STALL ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY...THEN RETURN BACK
NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS FRONT WILL
OSCILLATE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...MAINTAINING
DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD AREAS TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE INDY METRO EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY WEAKENING
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF ILLINOIS. SKIES WERE
MAINLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. TEMPS REMAINED IN THE
MID AND UPPER 70S AS OF 07Z.
06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN IOWA...WITH A
NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF
ILLINOIS...INDIANA AND OHIO. THE LOW WILL TRACK EAST ALONG THE
BOUNDARY TODAY...SERVING AS THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CURRENT MESOANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATING AXIS OF
DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST AS AREA OF
CONVECTION APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY TO
MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY IN A WEAKENED STATE NEAR AND
JUST AFTER DAYBREAK...BUT ANTICIPATE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS DRY THROUGH THE MORNING. COMBINATION OF STRONG DIURNAL
HEATING AND EXPANSION OF 40KT LOW LEVEL JET INTO THE REGION WILL
PROMOTE AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING BY MIDDAY AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. HRRR CONTINUES TO BE RATHER AGGRESSIVE IN MORE
EXPANSIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY 16Z WHICH LOOKS
OVERDONE CONSIDERING LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. WILL KEEP POPS
PRIMARILY IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR EXPECTED SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT.
EXPECT AN UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES
AS THE LOW MOVES INTO NORTHERN INDIANA...WITH UPPER FORCING AND BL
SHEAR INCREASING. IN ADDITION...AXIS OF HIGHEST PRECIP WATER VALUES
AROUND 2 INCHES WILL POOL ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. COMBINED WITH
EXPECTED TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S...THIS SHOULD PRODUCE AN AREA OF
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG BY LATE DAY.
HI-RES GUIDANCE PICKING UP ON THIS THINKING WITH ROBUST CONVECTION
DEVELOPING. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS HIGHEST FOR THE REGION
AS THIS ACTIVITY FORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPANDS SOUTH INTO
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. CERTAINLY ANTICIPATE A
DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING DRY ADIABATIC
FLOW UP THROUGH 800MB. LOCAL BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS BETWEEN STORMS
COULD CERTAINLY PRESENT POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO AS WELL.
STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINERS AS WELL WITH HIGH PWATS AND
FREEZING LEVELS IN THE VICINITY OF 15KFT.
TEMPS...ITS TEMPTING TO GO FOR A THIRD STRAIGHT DAY AT 90 IN
INDY...BUT CLOUD DEBRIS FROM MORNING STORMS TO OUR WEST AND
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED REDEVELOPMENT AS EARLY AS MIDDAY MAY BE A
BIT TOO MUCH TO OVERCOME. GENERALLY TOOK A MOS BLEND...WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. BEST SHOT AT LOWER 90S WILL
EXIST ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WILL FEEL DISTINCTLY
MORE HUMID TODAY AS MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DEWPOINTS
RISE TO AROUND 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE ON CONVECTIVE CHANCES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AT 00Z THIS EVENING...EXPANDING SOUTH
THROUGH MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE WEAKENING NEAR OR JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE THREATS MENTIONED ABOVE IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION WILL
PERSIST...ESPECIALLY THE DAMAGING WIND AND HEAVY RAIN. THE FOCUS
WILL SHIFT TO PRIMARILY TORRENTIAL RAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A LARGE
ABOVE FREEZING LAYER THROUGH 14-15KFT SUPPORTING WARM RAIN PROCESSES
AND STORMS WITH HIGH RAINFALL RATES. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY WITH THESE STORMS.
THE LOW WILL TRACK INTO OHIO WITH THE BOUNDARY SLIPPING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SHOULD
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST U S WILL EXERT ITS INFLUENCE WITH RIDGING ALOFT
EXPANDING INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER ENERGY MOVES AWAY
TO THE EAST. COMBINATION OF THE EXPANDING RIDGE AND LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL HELP TO PUSH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BACK NORTH INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY.
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS INSTABILITY LEVELS PEAK. IN THE ABSENCE OF FORCING
ALOFT...INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRIMARY CATALYSTS
IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. MOST STORMS WILL REMAIN SUBSEVERE...
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. AFTER A BRIEF DROP
SATURDAY...PRECIP WATER VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEAR SUMMER PEAKS IN
THE VICINITY OF 2 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM.
STORM MOTIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE SLOWER WITH WEAKER FLOW ALOFT...WITH
LOCALIZED SOAKERS. STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPS...A MOS BLEND LOOKED REASONABLE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIPPING INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY AND
EXPECTATION OF MORE CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
WARMER TEMPS WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY WITH THE EXPANSION OF THE RIDGE.
EXPECT LOWS FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
TYPICAL...IF SOMEWHAT ACTIVE...SUMMERTIME PATTERN EXPECTED FOR THE
COMING WORK WEEK WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IMPINGING UPON THE REGION
AND THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST COMBINING
TO NECESSITATE THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ESSENTIALLY EVERY PERIOD.
THAT SAID...DO NOT EXPECT A TOTAL WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS...AND HAVE
BUMPED MAX TEMPS UP A BIT EARLY IN THE WEEK AS A RESULT AS TYPICAL
MODEL TENDENCY TO OVERDO COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP IS LIKELY
IMPACTING MODEL TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT.
SHOULD SEE TEMPS NEAR TO JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 12/09Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
ADDED VCTS MENTION TO LAF AROUND 11Z WITH THIN LINE OF WEAK STORMS
APPROACHING THE SITE. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO UPSTREAM
DEVELOPMENT TO ADD AT OTHERS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
ISSUED AT 1229 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
REMNANTS OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY ENTERING WESTERN ILLINOIS WILL
PROBABLY BE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE AROUND
121100Z. SOME OF THE MODEL DATA SUGGEST SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY
BUILD DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. APPEARS BETTER
THREAT WILL SPREAD OVER THE TAF SITES AFTER 121800Z.
OTHERWISE...INCREASING LAYERED CLOUD COVER ABOVE 050 OVERNIGHT AND
INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SOME ELEVATED CONVECTIVE TYPE CLOUD BASED
050-060 POSSIBLE BY MID TO LATE MORNING FRIDAY.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 180-200 DEGREES AT 6-9 KTS
OVERNIGHT...VEERING AROUND TO 210-230 DEGREES WITH SOME GUSTS 20-24
KTS TOWARDS MIDDAY FRIDAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...JAS/NIELD
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
352 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY EXPAND
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
THE MAIN CONCERNS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT
AND INTO TOMORROW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
WITHERING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH FGEN/ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY
TO STRUGGLE OUTSIDE OF OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES THROUGH THE MORNING
GIVEN BETTER FORCING AND LLJ/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/MUCAPE ARE STILL
DISPLACED JUST TO OUR WEST. THAT WILL CHANGE BY LATER TODAY AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND PARENT SHORTWAVE MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES. ADEQUATE SYNOPTIC FORCING IN A VERY MOIST AND AT
LEAST MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LEAD TO MOST AREAS
SEEING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT SOME POINT TODAY. QUESTION
REMAINS EXACT TIMING/EVOLUTION AND SEVERE CHANCES.
HI-RES MODELS ARE SPLIT ON HOW ROBUST THIS PREFRONTAL CONVECTION
WILL BE. HRRR AND RAP SUGGEST LITTLE MORE THAN SCT SHOWERS THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH MAIN ACTIVITY CONFINED TO THE AFTERNOON FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WRF-NMM INDICATES INITIAL LINE WILL BE MUCH MORE
ACTIVE...CAPITALIZING ON SOME DIURNAL RECOVERY BY 15Z IN OUR
SOUTHEAST HALF. TRUTH IS LIKELY SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. EXPECT SCT
CONVECTION TO STEADILY CHURN E/SE THROUGH MIDDAY BUT BEST CHANCES
FOR STRONGER/MORE ORGANIZED STORMS WILL BE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH MAIN FRONTAL PASSAGE. AS ALWAYS...EARLY DAY PRECIP
MAKES SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES NEBULOUS. EXCELLENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL MAKE CLOUD COVER/SOLAR HEATING LESS CONSEQUENTIAL
WITH LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS STILL GENERATING 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE
BUT PREFRONTAL CONVECTION COULD STILL THROW A LARGE MONKEY WRENCH
INTO THE WORKS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS AROUND 30 KTS (HIGHEST IN OUR
NORTHERN CWA) SO ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS ARE POSSIBLE. WIND PROFILE IS
FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SO STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND BOWING SEGMENTS ARE
THE PRIMARY CONCERN...THOUGH SOME HAIL IS POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH
INSTABILITY MANAGES TO BUILD. ALL OF THIS IS TO SAY THERE IS
DEFINITELY A CONDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS
THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE NAILING DOWN MORE SPECIFICS. ALSO A HEAVY
RAIN THREAT GIVEN PW VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES AND STORM MOTION NEARLY
PARALLEL TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LOCALIZED FLOODING CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
BUT CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD THREAT IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR WATCH
ISSUANCE. WILL JUST CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN
HWO AND GRIDS.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE/SHIFT SOUTHEAST BY LATE EVENING AND
EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S BUT ANY PEAKS OF SUN WILL MAKE UPPER 80S
EASILY ATTAINABLE. POSTFRONTAL OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE MUCH MORE
COMFORTABLE THAN PRESENT VALUES...UPPER 50S NORTHWEST TO MID 60S
SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO LONG TERM PERIOD AS OSCILLATING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS REMAIN IN RATHER
GOOD AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY FOR THIS PATTERN BUT A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DETAILS AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS.
BOUNDARY WILL BE SINKING SOUTH ON SATURDAY BUT REMAINING CLOSE
ENOUGH TO SOUTH FOR LOW CHANCE POPS AS EXACT LOCATION YET TO BE
DETERMINED. RESIDUAL CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE NORTH OF
FRONT. BOUNDARY BEGINS TO COME BACK NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
WITH INCREASING CONVECTIVE CHANCES ONCE AGAIN. PLENTY OF MOISTURE
FLUX AND INSTABILITY PRESENT SO WILL NOT TAKE MUCH FOR PERIODIC SHRA
AND TSRA THROUGH MONDAY. FRONT LOOKS TO SAG SOUTH OF AREA ONCE AGAIN
TOWARD TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SKIRTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
TRIES TO DRY US OUT FOR A DAY. WILL STILL CARRY A LOW POP WITH
UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION. LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
COME BACK NORTH TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
POSSIBLE THROUGH END OF PERIOD. EPISODIC ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER
REMAIN POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON TIMING OF FRONT AND STRONGER
KINEMATICS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH
PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED JUST
TO OUR NORTHWEST. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT KSBN COULD GET CLIPPED
WITH A THUNDERSTORM DURING THE EARLY MORNING BUT HELD WITH PRIOR
FORECAST GIVEN BEST FORCING STILL WELL UPSTREAM. CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES EAST THROUGH
THE MORNING BUT SHOULD RE-INTENSIFY BY THE AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE
PASSES AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY BUILDS. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW BUT DID MOVE IT UP A BIT BASED ON LATEST HI-
RES MODELS. PRECIP SHOULD END BY EVENING BUT SOME LOW STRATUS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KSBN...AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS GENERALLY IN PLACE.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...AGD
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
338 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AND TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL STALL ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY...THEN RETURN BACK
NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS FRONT WILL
OSCILLATE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...MAINTAINING
DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD AREAS TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE INDY METRO EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY WEAKENING
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF ILLINOIS. SKIES WERE
MAINLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. TEMPS REMAINED IN THE
MID AND UPPER 70S AS OF 07Z.
06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN IOWA...WITH A
NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF
ILLINOIS...INDIANA AND OHIO. THE LOW WILL TRACK EAST ALONG THE
BOUNDARY TODAY...SERVING AS THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CURRENT MESOANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATING AXIS OF
DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST AS AREA OF
CONVECTION APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY TO
MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY IN A WEAKENED STATE NEAR AND
JUST AFTER DAYBREAK...BUT ANTICIPATE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS DRY THROUGH THE MORNING. COMBINATION OF STRONG DIURNAL
HEATING AND EXPANSION OF 40KT LOW LEVEL JET INTO THE REGION WILL
PROMOTE AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING BY MIDDAY AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. HRRR CONTINUES TO BE RATHER AGGRESSIVE IN MORE
EXPANSIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY 16Z WHICH LOOKS
OVERDONE CONSIDERING LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. WILL KEEP POPS
PRIMARILY IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR EXPECTED SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT.
EXPECT AN UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES
AS THE LOW MOVES INTO NORTHERN INDIANA...WITH UPPER FORCING AND BL
SHEAR INCREASING. IN ADDITION...AXIS OF HIGHEST PRECIP WATER VALUES
AROUND 2 INCHES WILL POOL ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. COMBINED WITH
EXPECTED TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S...THIS SHOULD PRODUCE AN AREA OF
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG BY LATE DAY.
HI-RES GUIDANCE PICKING UP ON THIS THINKING WITH ROBUST CONVECTION
DEVELOPING. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS HIGHEST FOR THE REGION
AS THIS ACTIVITY FORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPANDS SOUTH INTO
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. CERTAINLY ANTICIPATE A
DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING DRY ADIABATIC
FLOW UP THROUGH 800MB. LOCAL BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS BETWEEN STORMS
COULD CERTAINLY PRESENT POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO AS WELL.
STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINERS AS WELL WITH HIGH PWATS AND
FREEZING LEVELS IN THE VICINITY OF 15KFT.
TEMPS...ITS TEMPTING TO GO FOR A THIRD STRAIGHT DAY AT 90 IN
INDY...BUT CLOUD DEBRIS FROM MORNING STORMS TO OUR WEST AND
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED REDEVELOPMENT AS EARLY AS MIDDAY MAY BE A
BIT TOO MUCH TO OVERCOME. GENERALLY TOOK A MOS BLEND...WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. BEST SHOT AT LOWER 90S WILL
EXIST ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WILL FEEL DISTINCTLY
MORE HUMID TODAY AS MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DEWPOINTS
RISE TO AROUND 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE ON CONVECTIVE CHANCES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AT 00Z THIS EVENING...EXPANDING SOUTH
THROUGH MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE WEAKENING NEAR OR JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE THREATS MENTIONED ABOVE IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION WILL
PERSIST...ESPECIALLY THE DAMAGING WIND AND HEAVY RAIN. THE FOCUS
WILL SHIFT TO PRIMARILY TORRENTIAL RAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A LARGE
ABOVE FREEZING LAYER THROUGH 14-15KFT SUPPORTING WARM RAIN PROCESSES
AND STORMS WITH HIGH RAINFALL RATES. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY WITH THESE STORMS.
THE LOW WILL TRACK INTO OHIO WITH THE BOUNDARY SLIPPING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SHOULD
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST U S WILL EXERT ITS INFLUENCE WITH RIDGING ALOFT
EXPANDING INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER ENERGY MOVES AWAY
TO THE EAST. COMBINATION OF THE EXPANDING RIDGE AND LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL HELP TO PUSH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BACK NORTH INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY.
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS INSTABILITY LEVELS PEAK. IN THE ABSENCE OF FORCING
ALOFT...INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRIMARY CATALYSTS
IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. MOST STORMS WILL REMAIN SUBSEVERE...
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. AFTER A BRIEF DROP
SATURDAY...PRECIP WATER VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEAR SUMMER PEAKS IN
THE VICINITY OF 2 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. STORM
MOTIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE SLOWER WITH WEAKER FLOW ALOFT...WITH
LOCALIZED SOAKERS. STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPS...A MOS BLEND LOOKED REASONABLE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIPPING INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY AND
EXPECTATION OF MORE CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
WARMER TEMPS WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY WITH THE EXPANSION OF THE RIDGE.
EXPECT LOWS FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
TYPICAL...IF SOMEWHAT ACTIVE...SUMMERTIME PATTERN EXPECTED FOR THE
COMING WORK WEEK WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IMPINGING UPON THE REGION
AND THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST COMBINING
TO NECESSITATE THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ESSENTIALLY EVERY PERIOD.
THAT SAID...DO NOT EXPECT A TOTAL WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS...AND HAVE
BUMPED MAX TEMPS UP A BIT EARLY IN THE WEEK AS A RESULT AS TYPICAL
MODEL TENDENCY TO OVERDO COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP IS LIKELY
IMPACTING MODEL TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT.
SHOULD SEE TEMPS NEAR TO JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 12/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1229 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
REMNANTS OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY ENTERING WESTERN ILLINOIS WILL
PROBABLY BE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE AROUND
121100Z. SOME OF THE MODEL DATA SUGGEST SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY
BUILD DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. APPEARS BETTER
THREAT WILL SPREAD OVER THE TAF SITES AFTER 121800Z.
OTHERWISE...INCREASING LAYERED CLOUD COVER ABOVE 050 OVERNIGHT AND
INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SOME ELEVATED CONVECTIVE TYPE CLOUD BASED
050-060 POSSIBLE BY MID TO LATE MORNING FRIDAY.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 180-200 DEGREES AT 6-9 KTS
OVERNIGHT...VEERING AROUND TO 210-230 DEGREES WITH SOME GUSTS 20-24
KTS TOWARDS MIDDAY FRIDAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....NIELD
AVIATION...JAS
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1251 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015
RADAR TRENDS AT 1230 AM WERE SHOWING OVERALL WEAKENING OF THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS WITH THE
LEADING EDGE JUST REACHING OUR FAR EASTERN CWA BORDER AT MIDNIGHT.
AT THE SAME TIME...SATELLITE IR SHOWED CLOUD TOPS HAD WARMED
CONSIDERABLY. 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS...ON THE SPC MESO
OPERATIONAL RAP MODEL...SHOWS CONVERGENCE OF 1.7 TO 2.0 PW OVER SE
INTO E CENTRAL IA INTO NW IL. THIS WAS RESULTING IN CONTINUED
BACK-BUILDING AND REGENERATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
NORTHERN IL ACROSS EASTERN IA...AHEAD OF THE SURFACE AND 850 MB
LOWS LIKELY LOCATED NEAR OR JUST SE OF DSM. WHILE OBVIOUS
TRAINING OF CELLS IS NOT OCCURRING...HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL BE
LIKELY UNDER THE NEW CELLS AND ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR
MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT IS
UNLIKELY...HOWEVER...THAT ANY SITE WILL SEE THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
RATES SEEN EARLIER THIS EVENING. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015
NEARLY STATIONARY EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED PRACTICALLY
PARALLEL TO INTERSTATE 80 ACROSS IA AND IL. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS
FRONT TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 70S. QUITE THE THERMAL GRADIENT WITH EAST WINDS COMING OFF
LAKE MICHIGAN KEEPING READINGS IN OUR NORTH ONLY IN THE MID 60S
(WHERE ITS RAINING) TO THE LOWER 70S (WHERE ITS CLOUDY).
SPC MESO ANALYSIS INDICATES A VERY NICE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO EASTERN IA. PRECIPITABLE
WATERS ARE 1.80 INCHES FROM WESTERN MO TO EASTERN IA. STRONG
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 50 KT WAS NOTED IN EASTERN IA AND NORTHERN
IL NEAR THE STALLED BOUNDARY. SBCAPES WERE 2000 TO 3500 J/KG JUST
SOUTH OF THE DVN CWA. EFFECTIVE SR HELICITY OF 300+ WAS NOTED IN
P0RTIONS OF EASTERN IA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015
...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...
ALL OF THE PIECES ARE STARTING TO FALL INTO PLACE REGARDING FLASH
FLOODING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. AREAS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE NEXT
12 HOURS OR SO.
FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL...
HAND ANALYSIS ALONG WITH MSAS ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN EASTERLY FLOW
OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS FLOW...ALONG WITH THE LACK OF SURFACE
HEATING DUE TO CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT THE WARM FRONT NEARLY
STATIONARY TODAY. EARLIER ANALYSIS SHOWS THE H85 LLJ...THERMAL AND
MOISTURE BOUNDARY OVER THE CWA. THE SURFACE LOW TO WEST AND SOUTH
HAS BEEN FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST BY THE MODELS. HOWEVER
PRESSURE FALLS AND TRENDS SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW IS GOING TO MOVE
MORE EAST THAN NORTH. WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES AND MOISTURE
POOLING ALONG THE WARM FRONT...THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGH RAIN RATES
WILL FORM. FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE FROM THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. OVERALL 1 TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. AN
ISOLATED 5 INCHES IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
CONVECTION IS STARTING TO FIRE ACROSS NW MO AND SE NE. THESE STORMS
WILL LIKELY FOLLOW THE LOW TRACK AND THE WARM FRONT INTO OUR AREA.
STORMS COULD BACKBUILD INTO THE H85 LLJ THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
THIS COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA. WPC HAS THE
ENTIRE CWA IN A MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...
POTENT SURFACE FRONT AND WARM FRONT WILL SIT ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE
CLOUD COVER HAS LEAD TO LOWER SBCAPE...CAPE IS MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT FROM INSOLATION...MODEST CAPE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 45
KTS...ALONG WITH 0-1KM SHEAR AT 25 TO 35 KTS SUGGESTS STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE. ANY SFC BASED STORM COULD FORM INTO A SUPERCELL WITH
ALL SEVERE WEATHER THREATS POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT. LATER ON THIS
EVENING...ELEVATED STORMS SHOULD TAKE OVER. H85 LLJ WILL FUEL
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INTO THE AREA. A WIND THREAT
WOULD THEN BE POSSIBLE WITH LATER STORMS.
OVERALL POSSIBLE IMPACTS...
FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING APPEAR TO BE THE MOST LIKELY
IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM. A FEW GAUGES COULD GO INTO FLOOD WITH THE
PROJECTED RAINFALL. ALSO DAMAGE FROM SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE AREA. EVERYONE IS ENCOURAGED TO PAY ATTENTION TO
FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE WATCHES AND WARNINGS THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT TIME PERIODS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015
FORECAST FOCUS ON A CONTINUED WET PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...I WILL WALK OUT THE LINGERING SHOWERS
AND STORMS IN THE MORNING BUT THE AFTERNOON APPEARS DRY AS THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES TO OUR SOUTHEAST. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM 70
IN OUR FAR NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE SOUTHEAST. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING A DRY NIGHT TO MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE
LOWER 60S SOUTH. RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH ALREADY BY
SUNRISE SATURDAY SO I WILL MAINTAIN THE SMALL POP IN OUR FAR
SOUTH.
SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...APPEARS ANOTHER ACTIVE PATTERN
SETS UP WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
HOWEVER...WAY TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE SPECIFICS. APPEARS THE
PATTERN IS LOCKED IN FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE WITH TROUGHINESS
IN THE ROCKIES AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE MIDWEST. THE
GULF WILL BE WIDE OPEN FOR BUSINESS BUT TIMING THE INDIVIDUAL
MCS`S IS TRICKY THIS FAR OUT. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN WOULD
IMPACT ANY FLOODING ISSUES ON THE RIVERS. STAY TUNED.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED LOOK TO BE MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL BE WELL INTO
THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...IF NOT HIGHER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015
HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS AND A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
KEEP LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE OVER THE TERMINALS FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING HAVE SINCE BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND
WILL AFFECT MOST OF THE TERMINALS UNTIL AROUND 09Z BEFORE EXITING
TO THE EAST. FOR NOW...MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY STAY
WELL SOUTH OF DBQ AND HAVE KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST THERE.
OTHERWISE...IFR CONDITIONS...DUE TO BOTH LOW CIGS AND FOG WILL
SPREAD FROM DBQ SOUTHWARD INTO THE REST OF THE TERMINALS BY
FRIDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS COMING TO AN END. THERE REMAINS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN HOW FAST CIGS WILL LIFT FROM IFR TO MVFR...AND
EVENTUALLY VFR DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...BUT VISBITILITIES ARE
LIKELY TO IMPROVE TO AT LEAST 5 MILES BY MIDDAY.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BENTON-
BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-
IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BUREAU-
CARROLL-HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-
MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CLARK-
SCOTLAND.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...SHEETS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
244 PM MDT FRI JUN 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT FRI JUN 12 2015
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE DATA SHOW A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA...WITH A CLOUDY SKY. RADAR
INDICATED A BAND OF LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE RAINFALL CONTINUING
NORTHWARD OVER THE NORTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES WITH A SMALL AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO AT THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH.
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON ANTICIPATE THE BAND OF RAINFALL TO
CONTINUE MOVING NORTH. NOTICED THE BAND HAS BEGUN TO MOVE FASTER
OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO. AS SUCH...MAY BE HANGING ONTO IT A BIT
TOO LONG IN THE FORECAST...BUT HAVE THE BAND TRANSLATING NORTHWARD
ACCORDING TO THE RAP 500MB WINDS WHICH SHOULD BE REPRESENTATIVE.
THE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS ARE TRYING TO BREAK SOME AHEAD OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. IF CLOUDS REMAIN MOSTLY UNBROKEN THIS WILL AFFECT
THE LONGEVITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS GOING INTO THE EVENING.
FOR EVENING THE BAND OF RAINFALL SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE AREA BEFORE
MID EVENING. MEANWHILE THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN SOME AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES AND THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE STABLE. SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS AS THE AXIS MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA. DESPITE THE LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AND DECENT
LIFT THE MODELS WERE NOT TOO CONVINCED RAIN WOULD DEVELOP.
WITH THIS IN MIND WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL CHANCES OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS BUT KEEP THEM BELOW 40 PERCENT.
AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT TAKING MOST OF ANY LINGERING RAINFALL WITH IT. THE
AREA SHOULD BE RAIN FREE BEFORE SUNRISE. BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS THE SKY WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR. THIS MAY ALLOW SOME FOG TO
DEVELOP. HOWEVER VISIBILITY FIELDS WERE NOT SUGGESTING FOG WOULD
DEVELOP SO WILL LEAVE FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST AND A SOUNDING AT YUMA
INDICATED FAIRLY DRY LOW LEVELS.
SATURDAY WILL BE DRY FOR MOST OF THE DAY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EAST OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE WARM AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST AS THE COOLER AIR ACCOMPANIES THE TROUGH
EASTWARD. DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST BRINGING WITH IT ANOTHER ROUND
OF ISOLATED STORMS TO THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA. THERE LOOKS
TO BE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SURFACE TROUGH SEPARATING THE WARMER AIR
OVER THE TR-STATE AREA BEHIND THE TROUGH FROM THE COOLER AIR EAST
OF THE AREA UNDER THE TROUGH. THIS MAY HELP PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
STORM INITIATION DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 PM MDT FRI JUN 12 2015
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...LATEST MODELS RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AT
500/700MB...AND STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST/
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS REGION...BEING STUCK IN BETWEEN THESE TWO RIDGES WILL HAVE AN
INVERTED TROUGH SET UP OVER THE AREA. FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE
WEEKEND ON THRU NEXT WEEK...THIS IS GOING TO GIVE THE ENTIRE TRI
STATE REGION THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...FURTHER
ENHANCED BY SEVERAL SHORTWAVES THAT MOVE THRU THE ZONAL FLOW TO OUR
NORTH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
REGION NEXT WEEK...WILL ALSO HELP TO ENHANCE ANY PRECIP CHANCES AS A
SURFACE FRONT THAT DEVELOPS IN TANDEM WITH THE INVERTED
TROUGH/SHORTWAVE COMBO. THE FRONT WILL END UP BECOMING STATIONARY
OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY.
TEMPS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD COULD VARY GREATLY DEPENDING ON THE
AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS FROM EXPECTED PRECIP...BUT OVERALL UPWARD
TREND IS EXPECTED AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SW WILL PROVIDE WNW DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY MIDWEEK ONWARD
GIVING THE AREA 850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM +20C TO +26C. LOOKING FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S SUNDAY INTO
TUESDAY...AND MID 80S TO MID 90S WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...WARMEST AT
END OF THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S THRU THE
MID 60S. EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION WILL BE CLOSEST TO MORE UNSTABLE
AIR FROM THE SE...SO CHANCES FOR ANY POTENTIAL SEVERE WILL BE
FOCUSED MORE SO THERE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1056 AM MDT FRI JUN 12 2015
IFR TO VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 18Z TAFS. KGLD CURRENTLY
HAS ONLY A FEW CLOUDS AT IFR LEVEL...HOWEVER KITR HAS A BROKEN
DECK AT 800 FT. LOOKS LIKE THIS IS TIED TO THE RAINFALL WHICH IS
MOVING EAST TOWARD KGLD...SO WILL HAVE A TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR FOR
AN HOUR. AFTER THAT THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD RAISE ABOVE IFR. THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING THE MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL SHOULD BE SOUTHWEST
OF KGLD SO WILL LEAVE RAIN OUT OF THE TAF. FOR KMCK BAND OF LIGHT
RAINFALL MOVING NORTHWARD SHOULD DISSIPATE AS IT APPROACHES THE
SITE. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR KMCK.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
113 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2015
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015
08Z water vapor imagery shows a mid level low pressure system moving
east along the CO and NM state line. Meanwhile radar and profiler
data suggest an MCV has formed over southwestern KS. At the surface
observations show the cold front has moved through LWC and
Burlington, but may still be hung up across Anderson CO. The showers
and thunderstorm activity has had a hard time persisting across
eastern KS this morning.
For today and tonight, chances for precip remain and am wondering if
I may not be high enough with chances especially for this morning.
Overall the mid level low pressure system is progged to open up with
energy lifting into northwest KS and central NEB. Meanwhile deep
moisture should continue advecting north while the surface boundary
becomes less defined and possibly lifts north overnight. Obviously
the MCV this morning could cause showers with embedded thunderstorms
to move across the area. However high resolution models want to
weaken the areal extent of precip through the morning. The HRRR is
the most aggressive in bringing QPF into north central and east
central KS, but it looks like it may also be to for north with the
more intense convection right now. Will have to monitor trends this
morning. For tonight, the NAM is the most aggressive in developing
deep moist convection and heavy precip. Think there is the potential
for this since the GFS and NAM both show PWs increasing to around 2
inches. Additionally the weak boundary could provide some lift and
focus for convection. However instability is not expected to be all
that impressive with 700 to 500 MB lapse rates around 5.5 C/KM.
Considered the need for a flood or flash flood watch. However
confidence in when excessive rainfall is most likely is not very
good and rather put out a watch for the entire area that lasts 36 or
48 hours, have opted to wait and let later shifts reevaluate the
later model solutions. Aside from the flooding risk, severe weather
in general seems to be a low probability of occurrence. 0-6KM shear
vectors are rather modest and with cloud cover likely lasting
through much of the day, it is hard to envision strong daytime
heating behind the front. If there were going to be a risk for hail
or damaging winds, I think it would likely be across east central KS
south of I-35 if the sun was able to break out. Even then it looks
to be marginal for hail and wind. The clouds and possible showers
should keep diurnal trends to about 10 degrees F. This would give
highs in the mid 70s to near 80. Lows tonight are forecast to fall
into the mid 60s with the chance for rain cooled air possibly
knocking another degree or two off that.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015
Broad southwest troughing and precip chances continue across the central
plains through most of the extended period. The main forecast
challenges are narrowing down higher precip chances and locations
for heaviest rainfall.
On Saturday and Sunday, main PV anomaly that previously tracked eastward
across Kansas on Friday evening will pivot towards the northeast
during the afternoon and evening. All guidance is somewhat similar
with the track of the upper trough lifting directly over the CWA,
while timing is a bit different between models. Moisture transport
vectors increase as the warm front lifts northward, raising PWAT
values close to 2 inches, higher than forecast values from previous
days. Also worthy of note is that 2 inches is between the 99th
percentile and the maximum observed precipitable water for climatology.
Based on the copious amounts of moisture and optimal forcing, have
placed the highest thunderstorm chances beginning Saturday
afternoon, peaking to definite Saturday evening, and then remaining
likely through Sunday evening for much of the CWA. The decision was
to wait in issuing headlines for this time due to some uncertainty
in where the axis of heavy precip sets up. Placement of the trough axis
during the day Saturday may focus any thunderstorms across central
KS before activity spreads eastward overnight into Sunday.
Any storms that develop during the late afternoons may be
marginally severe. While little to no inhibition maximizes sfc CAPE
between 1500 and 2000 J/KG, effective shear stays on the low side
near 20 KTS, mitigating stronger, rotating updrafts from forming.
With the passing system the frontal boundary swings back southward
on Monday. Latest guidance is beginning to trend the boundary along
and south of Interstate 70 during the afternoon and evening,
focusing the better thunderstorm chances in these areas. The GFS and
ECMWF is beginning to show a glimpse of relief in rainfall by
Tuesday as a stronger mid level wave will help eject the remnants of
the cutoff low across the southern plains eastward by Thursday.
Before then, kept the chance for thunderstorms focused mainly south of
Interstate 70 where better forcing exists. Rainfall totals at the
end of this event may easily range from 2 to 6 or more inches.
In terms of temps, overcast skies with off an on rainfall will keep
readings near 80 degrees in the afternoons with overnight lows mild
in the upper 60s. By the end of the period, may see more breaks in
the clouds over north central KS to see higher readings in the mid
80s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 104 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015
This afternoon, remnants of the overnight MCV have been moving near
or over the TAF sites along with associated lower clouds bringing
MVFR conditions. The trend with this will be to come to an end and
lift out of the area to the North and northeast in general.
Improvements to the CIGs should continue into the afternoon. Still
have MVFR in the TAFs, but we could be in and out at times varying
from MVFR to VFR conditions. The last half of the TAF period will
see the potential for some isolated thunder but mainly rain
likely. Timing is a bit lower on the confidence at this point
since the concern doesn`t really start to come into play until we
get some more influence from the LLJ overnight and an activated
frontal zone back into the area. Right now, went with the 9z time
frame for KMHK and 10z time frame for KTOP/KFOE.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Drake
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
557 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2015
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015
08Z water vapor imagery shows a mid level low pressure system moving
east along the CO and NM state line. Meanwhile radar and profiler
data suggest an MCV has formed over southwestern KS. At the surface
observations show the cold front has moved through LWC and
Burlington, but may still be hung up across Anderson CO. The showers
and thunderstorm activity has had a hard time persisting across
eastern KS this morning.
For today and tonight, chances for precip remain and am wondering if
I may not be high enough with chances especially for this morning.
Overall the mid level low pressure system is progged to open up with
energy lifting into northwest KS and central NEB. Meanwhile deep
moisture should continue advecting north while the surface boundary
becomes less defined and possibly lifts north overnight. Obviously
the MCV this morning could cause showers with embedded thunderstorms
to move across the area. However high resolution models want to
weaken the areal extent of precip through the morning. The HRRR is
the most aggressive in bringing QPF into north central and east
central KS, but it looks like it may also be to for north with the
more intense convection right now. Will have to monitor trends this
morning. For tonight, the NAM is the most aggressive in developing
deep moist convection and heavy precip. Think there is the potential
for this since the GFS and NAM both show PWs increasing to around 2
inches. Additionally the weak boundary could provide some lift and
focus for convection. However instability is not expected to be all
that impressive with 700 to 500 MB lapse rates around 5.5 C/KM.
Considered the need for a flood or flash flood watch. However
confidence in when excessive rainfall is most likely is not very
good and rather put out a watch for the entire area that lasts 36 or
48 hours, have opted to wait and let later shifts reevaluate the
later model solutions. Aside from the flooding risk, severe weather
in general seems to be a low probability of occurrence. 0-6KM shear
vectors are rather modest and with cloud cover likely lasting
through much of the day, it is hard to envision strong daytime
heating behind the front. If there were going to be a risk for hail
or damaging winds, I think it would likely be across east central KS
south of I-35 if the sun was able to break out. Even then it looks
to be marginal for hail and wind. The clouds and possible showers
should keep diurnal trends to about 10 degrees F. This would give
highs in the mid 70s to near 80. Lows tonight are forecast to fall
into the mid 60s with the chance for rain cooled air possibly
knocking another degree or two off that.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015
Broad southwest troughing and precip chances continue across the central
plains through most of the extended period. The main forecast
challenges are narrowing down higher precip chances and locations
for heaviest rainfall.
On Saturday and Sunday, main PV anomaly that previously tracked eastward
across Kansas on Friday evening will pivot towards the northeast
during the afternoon and evening. All guidance is somewhat similar
with the track of the upper trough lifting directly over the CWA,
while timing is a bit different between models. Moisture transport
vectors increase as the warm front lifts northward, raising PWAT
values close to 2 inches, higher than forecast values from previous
days. Also worthy of note is that 2 inches is between the 99th
percentile and the maximum observed precipitable water for climatology.
Based on the copious amounts of moisture and optimal forcing, have
placed the highest thunderstorm chances beginning Saturday
afternoon, peaking to definite Saturday evening, and then remaining
likely through Sunday evening for much of the CWA. The decision was
to wait in issuing headlines for this time due to some uncertainty
in where the axis of heavy precip sets up. Placement of the trough axis
during the day Saturday may focus any thunderstorms across central
KS before activity spreads eastward overnight into Sunday.
Any storms that develop during the late afternoons may be
marginally severe. While little to no inhibition maximizes sfc CAPE
between 1500 and 2000 J/KG, effective shear stays on the low side
near 20 KTS, mitigating stronger, rotating updrafts from forming.
With the passing system the frontal boundary swings back southward
on Monday. Latest guidance is beginning to trend the boundary along
and south of Interstate 70 during the afternoon and evening,
focusing the better thunderstorm chances in these areas. The GFS and
ECMWF is beginning to show a glimpse of relief in rainfall by
Tuesday as a stronger mid level wave will help eject the remnants of
the cutoff low across the southern plains eastward by Thursday.
Before then, kept the chance for thunderstorms focused mainly south of
Interstate 70 where better forcing exists. Rainfall totals at the
end of this event may easily range from 2 to 6 or more inches.
In terms of temps, overcast skies with off an on rainfall will keep
readings near 80 degrees in the afternoons with overnight lows mild
in the upper 60s. By the end of the period, may see more breaks in
the clouds over north central KS to see higher readings in the mid
80s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 557 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015
Confidence in timing precip chances is low. SHRA associated with
an MCV in south central KS seems to be having a hard time moving
northeast as if there is some dry air to overcome. Since models
are not in good agreement with morning activity, have gone with a
VCSH through the morning. Think there should be a break by the
afternoon with subsidence on the back side of the MCV bringing an
end to precip. However have kept conditions MVFR anticipating
little or no improvement to CIGS with surface ridging nosing into
the area and a northeast surface wind prevailing. CIGS could
improve this afternoon, but given the pattern do not have
confidence in raising CIGS. With potential for renewed nocturnal
convection tonight, have brought back a VCTS late in the evening.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
330 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015
08Z water vapor imagery shows a mid level low pressure system moving
east along the CO and NM state line. Meanwhile radar and profiler
data suggest an MCV has formed over southwestern KS. At the surface
observations show the cold front has moved through LWC and
Burlington, but may still be hung up across Anderson CO. The showers
and thunderstorm activity has had a hard time persisting across
eastern KS this morning.
For today and tonight, chances for precip remain and am wondering if
I may not be high enough with chances especially for this morning.
Overall the mid level low pressure system is progged to open up with
energy lifting into northwest KS and central NEB. Meanwhile deep
moisture should continue advecting north while the surface boundary
becomes less defined and possibly lifts north overnight. Obviously
the MCV this morning could cause showers with embedded thunderstorms
to move across the area. However high resolution models want to
weaken the areal extent of precip through the morning. The HRRR is
the most aggressive in bringing QPF into north central and east
central KS, but it looks like it may also be to for north with the
more intense convection right now. Will have to monitor trends this
morning. For tonight, the NAM is the most aggressive in developing
deep moist convection and heavy precip. Think there is the potential
for this since the GFS and NAM both show PWs increasing to around 2
inches. Additionally the weak boundary could provide some lift and
focus for convection. However instability is not expected to be all
that impressive with 700 to 500 MB lapse rates around 5.5 C/KM.
Considered the need for a flood or flash flood watch. However
confidence in when excessive rainfall is most likely is not very
good and rather put out a watch for the entire area that lasts 36 or
48 hours, have opted to wait and let later shifts reevaluate the
later model solutions. Aside from the flooding risk, severe weather
in general seems to be a low probability of occurrence. 0-6KM shear
vectors are rather modest and with cloud cover likely lasting
through much of the day, it is hard to envision strong daytime
heating behind the front. If there were going to be a risk for hail
or damaging winds, I think it would likely be across east central KS
south of I-35 if the sun was able to break out. Even then it looks
to be marginal for hail and wind. The clouds and possible showers
should keep diurnal trends to about 10 degrees F. This would give
highs in the mid 70s to near 80. Lows tonight are forecast to fall
into the mid 60s with the chance for rain cooled air possibly
knocking another degree or two off that.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015
Broad southwest troughing and precip chances continue across the central
plains through most of the extended period. The main forecast
challenges are narrowing down higher precip chances and locations
for heaviest rainfall.
On Saturday and Sunday, main PV anomaly that previously tracked eastward
across Kansas on Friday evening will pivot towards the northeast
during the afternoon and evening. All guidance is somewhat similar
with the track of the upper trough lifting directly over the CWA,
while timing is a bit different between models. Moisture transport
vectors increase as the warm front lifts northward, raising PWAT
values close to 2 inches, higher than forecast values from previous
days. Also worthy of note is that 2 inches is between the 99th
percentile and the maximum observed precipitable water for climatology.
Based on the copious amounts of moisture and optimal forcing, have
placed the highest thunderstorm chances beginning Saturday
afternoon, peaking to definite Saturday evening, and then remaining
likely through Sunday evening for much of the CWA. The decision was
to wait in issuing headlines for this time due to some uncertainty
in where the axis of heavy precip sets up. Placement of the trough axis
during the day Saturday may focus any thunderstorms across central
KS before activity spreads eastward overnight into Sunday.
Any storms that develop during the late afternoons may be
marginally severe. While little to no inhibition maximizes sfc CAPE
between 1500 and 2000 J/KG, effective shear stays on the low side
near 20 kts, mitigating stronger, rotating updrafts from forming.
With the passing system the frontal boundary swings back southward
on Monday. Latest guidance is beginning to trend the boundary along
and south of Interstate 70 during the afternoon and evening,
focusing the better thunderstorm chances in these areas. The GFS and
ECMWF is beginning to show a glimpse of relief in rainfall by
Tuesday as a stronger mid level wave will help eject the remnants of
the cutoff low across the southern plains eastward by Thursday.
Before then, kept the chance for thunderstorms focused mainly south of
Interstate 70 where better forcing exists. Rainfall totals at the
end of this event may easily range from 2 to 6 or more inches.
In terms of temps, overcast skies with off an on rainfall will keep
readings near 80 degrees in the afternoons with overnight lows mild
in the upper 60s. By the end of the period, may see more breaks in
the clouds over north central KS to see higher readings in the mid
80s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 622 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015
Forecast concerns are initially timing of potential convection at
TOP/FOE and associated wind shift. Wind has shifted at MHK
although they have an outflow headed toward terminal over the next
hour. Lower MVFR/IFR cigs then come in behind the front in the
cooler air, timed at MHK at 02z and TOP/FOE around 04Z. Precip
redevelops later tomorrow morning but more likely in the form of
showers or drizzle, and not confident it will hit terminals and
will hold as VCSH at this time.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...67
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
937 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2015
...Forecast Update...
Updated at 935 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2015
The storms across the region from this afternoon have dissipated
this evening with just some showers left. Isolated storms may be
possible overnight across southern Indiana, but for the most part
things should be quiet. The grids have been updated to reflect the
current radar trends as well as bring temperatures in line with
current observations.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Updated at 305 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2015
Scattered showers and thunderstorms have erupted over parts of
south-central and western KY in the warm, humid, and essentially
uncapped air mass. The storms over south-central KY are putting down
some brief heavy rain and perhaps a few brief wind gusts, but
downward CAPE (DCAPE) values are very marginal (500 J/kg or less)
due to ample atmospheric moisture and weak lapse rates aloft. Thus,
am expecting little or no microburst activity with these storms. The
cells over western KY are showing a bit better organization at this
time, and if they can hold together and move into a slightly more
favorable environment in south-central IN late this afternoon, then
a few stronger cells are possible.
Nevertheless, given a lack of organized forcing, storms will weaken/
dissipate early this evening in most areas as they continue to move
northeast. The latest HRRR even shows the cells in western KY
weakening later on as they move northeast. This will leave a mostly
clear sky south and partly cloudy sky north overnight across our
area. There could be patchy fog/haze early Sunday morning,
especially where showers occur this afternoon, but not expecting
anything widespread or dense.
Short range models in good overall agreement with a summer pattern
in store on Sunday. Mid-level ridge will continue to build to the
northwest across KY Sunday with 500 mb heights rising a bit. There
also should be a little less moisture in the atmosphere. As a
result, there will be less coverage Sunday afternoon, and south-
central KY may stay precip free other than perhaps an isolated storm
here or there. A slightly better chance for diurnal afternoon
isolated to scattered cells will occur roughly along and north of
Interstate 64 on the periphery of the upper ridge and closer to the
better stream of moisture around this ridge. Once again, any
activity should weaken Sunday evening. However, cannot rule out
isolated/scattered nocturnal cells Sunday night over southern IN,
again closer to the stream of moisture on the northern fringe of the
upper ridge.
Lows tonight should be roughly around 70 (warmer in Louisville).
Highs Sunday afternoon will top out near 90 or the lower 90s in
central KY with mid-upper 80s in southern IN. Lows Sunday night will
average in the lower 70s across the region.
.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sat June 13 2015
Warm and humid are the two most certain words for the extended
forecast for the Louisville CWA. The overall upper air pattern
changes little during the period, with a weak Bermuda High spinning
off the coast of Florida and the polar jet racing in a nearly zonal
fashion across the northern CONUS. The result of this will be an
abundance of Gulf moisture streaming north up the Mississippi
Valley, helping to fuel thunderstorms from the southern and central
Plains to the Great Lakes with any of a number of short waves
flowing through the northern jet, and catching impulses flowing
north around the Bermuda High.
Model guidance is in good agreement on this overall stagnant
pattern, but as usual, the devil is in the details. For the land
between the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, that means dry to the south,
wet to the north, and the hit-and-miss storms in between - right
over us. At least that looks to be the scenario for most of the
period. The 12Z runs are all picking up on a bit more energy
riding in from the western Gulf and breaking down the ridge on
Thursday, though. This would provide the opportunity for more
organized convection then. Regardless of the day and coverage,
though thanks to the deep moisture riding from the Gulf around the
subtropical High off the Florida coast, any storms that do develop
will be soakers, as precipitable water values will be in the 1.5"-2"
range throughout the time frame.
Temperature-wise, both daytime highs and overnight lows will be
above normal through the period, but only by 5 to as many as 10
degrees. That works out to most highs being in the mid 80s to
around 90, with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 640 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2015
Scattered showers and thunderstorms have been diminishing over the
past hour and will continue to do so. Think that any remaining
showers should mainly stay away from the terminals, so will have a
dry forecast this evening and overnight. Winds will relax over the
next hour or two as well and will be out of the south overnight
around 5-8 knots. Some light fog or haze will be possible around
daybreak at BWG.
Winds will pick back up again tomorrow morning and may become a bit
gusty in the afternoon with sustained winds around 12 knots. Most of
the storms will be suppressed by a ridge tomorrow. The best chance
for storms to impact any terminal will be at SDF, so will carry VCTS
there.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........EER
Short Term.....TWF
Long Term......JBS
Aviation.......EER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
952 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
.DISCUSSION...
MUCH OF THE CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS
OF INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH SCT CONVECTION CONTINUES JUST NW OF OUR
NW ZONES OVER SE OK...NEAR AN OLD OUTFLOW BNDRY FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION THAT PROPAGATED NW...AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE
OUT OF THE MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY. MUCH OF THE REGION THOUGH
STILL LIES IN VC OF A WEAK SHEAR AXIS ALOFT...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED/SCT REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY AS PW/S REMAIN
NEAR 2 INCHES. THE HRRR IS ACTUALLY A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN
CONVECTION REDEVELOPMENT LATE...WITH THE EXISTING CONVECTION JUST
OFFSHORE THE SE TX COAST PUSHING INLAND OVERNIGHT INTO PORTIONS OF
DEEP E TX JUST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK SUNDAY...ROTATING N AROUND THE
DIRTY UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SE CONUS.
HAVE KEPT MID CHANCE POPS GOING FOR THESE AREAS LATE TONIGHT...AS
WELL AS OUR SE OK/NRN SW AR COUNTIES...AS ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT
MAY OCCUR HERE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SHORTWAVE JUST OFF TO
OUR NW. DID INCREASE WINDS A TAD BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...AND
MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO MIN TEMPS...WITH READINGS NOT FALLING MUCH
MORE THAN THE 02Z OBS.
ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
15
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 815 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015/
AVIATION...
VFR THIS EVENING WITH NOCTURNAL TSTMS AT TERMINALS NOT EXPECTED.
OUR CLIMB WINDS ARE SE/S/SW 10-40KTS INTO THE MID LEVELS. LOOKING
FOR MVFR CIGS 08-12Z WITH SOME SHOWERS QUICKLY BECOMING STRONGER
TSTMS WITH HEATING 16-18Z. AMENDMENTS FOR TEMPO GROUPS LIKELY
SUNDAY AFTN WITH CLUSTERS OF TSTMS AND WE/LL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
COVERAGE IN THE COMING DAYS AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH SITS OVER THE
PLAINS AND COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGES INLAND OVER
THE TX COASTAL BEND WITH A HIGH CHANCE FOR A CYCLONE IN THE GULF.
/24/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 74 87 74 86 / 30 50 30 60
MLU 73 86 73 88 / 30 60 40 70
DEQ 72 85 73 87 / 40 40 30 50
TXK 73 85 74 87 / 30 50 30 50
ELD 72 87 74 85 / 30 50 30 60
TYR 74 86 73 85 / 20 50 30 60
GGG 74 86 74 85 / 30 50 30 60
LFK 74 85 75 84 / 40 60 40 70
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1158 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN DEFINED BY MOIST EAST/SE FLOW NORTH
OF A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. THIS
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR RENEWED STRATUS EXPANSION AND
LOWERING CEILING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE EARLY AND MID MORNING HOURS.
INCREASING MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTIVE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AREAWIDE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING
PERIOD. WHILE THIS MAY SUPPORT SOME EMBEDDED ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS...THE QUESTIONABLE COVERAGE/TIMING WILL PRECLUDE ANY
MENTION AT THIS TIME. THE WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST
INTO SE MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY. CEILINGS WILL LIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
THROUGH THE DAY AS THIS PROCESS UNFOLDS. POTENTIAL FOR LATE DAY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY INCREASES
SOUTH OF THIS FRONT.
FOR DTW...FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN PLACE TO ALLOW STRATUS TO
REDEVELOP ACROSS THE TERMINAL DURING THE MORNING PERIOD. THERE
REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF LIFR DURING THIS TIME.
POSSIBLE EXPANSION IN SHOWER COVERAGE SUNDAY MORNING...LIMITED
ELEVATED THUNDER POTENTIAL WITH NO MENTION YET GIVEN QUESTIONABLE
TIMING/COVERAGE. BETTER INSTABILITY BRINGS HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...MEDIUM
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
* LOW IN THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE AIRSPACE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. MEDIUM FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 922 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
UPDATE...
MOIST BUT STABLE EAST/SE FLOW STILL HOLDING FIRM LOCALLY THIS
EVENING...NORTH OF A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
ROUGHLY FROM BATTLE CREEK TO DEFIANCE. SOME WEAKENING FILAMENTS OF
THE ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BUBBLING WITHIN THE INSTABILITY
GRADIENT ALONG/SOUTHWEST OF THE FRONT MAY TEND TO FUNNEL DOWNSTREAM
AND INTO SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF SE MICHIGAN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. THIS WILL PRESENT THE CORRIDOR SOUTH OF M-59 WITH A LOWER
END CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE NIGHT. MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE HEADING INTO THE
EARLY-MID MORNING HOURS UNDER INCREASING THETA-E ADVECTION. THIS
WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER/ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS TIME...PARTICULARLY AS THE SFC-950 MB
FRONTAL SLOPE BEGINS TO ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD. MOST RECENT HI RES
SOLUTIONS AND RAP OUTPUT FAVOR THIS TIME WINDOW FOR SOME DEGREE OF
DEVELOPMENT LOCALLY /08Z-15Z/. UPDATE FORTHCOMING TO ADJUST
POPS/QPF DOWN PRIOR TO THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 358 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS EVENING WILL PRIMARILY BE LIMITED TO
NEAR THE OHIO BORDER AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT UP INTO
MICHIGAN. ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE FRONT...T/TDS IN THE LOW-MID
80S/LOW 70S HAVE ALLOWED SB CAPE VALUES TO BUILD TO 1000-2000
J/KG...JUST NOSING INTO FAR SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN. BUBBLE OF
INSTABILITY ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE FRONT MAY JUST BRUSH LENAWEE
COUNTY AFTER 5 PM...ALLOWING A STRONGER THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO
DEVELOP. SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS LIMITED AS IT WOULD TAKE A FEW HOURS
AT LEAST TO BUILD T/TDS HIGH ENOUGH TO ALLOW STRONGER STORMS TO
PROGRESS INTO THIS AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT A WIND GUST TO 50 MPH OR
1/2 HAIL HOWEVER AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
UPPER WAVE OVER WISCONSIN WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN AND LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE OVER OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
WARM FRONT LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE MICHIGAN STATE LINE TO LIFT UP
INTO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...AND THEN INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL
MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL DELINEATE A WARMER
AND MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS (GOOD THETA-E PUSH AFTER 21Z)...MARKED BY
SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 70. QUESTION WILL BE HOW HIGH THE
SHOWER/TSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE OVERNIGHT...AND WHAT TIME THE FRONT
WILL BE MOST ACTIVE. MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE WITH WHAT TIME A 30-
40 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL NOSE UP INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. WILL FOLLOW
THE STRONGER CONSENSUS OFFERED BY THE GFS/EURO...AS THEY SEEM TO
OFFER A BETTER SOLUTION TO THE HANDLING OF THE LARGER UPPER WAVE TO
OUR NORTHWEST...STRONGER. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AS
THE LOW-LEVEL JET NOSES IN...RIDING A SURGE OF WARMER AIR AND
MOISTURE UP INTO THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSING FRONTAL SLOPE. TRICKY
PART IS DETERMINING WHAT TIME THIS WILL HAPPEN...AND WHERE THE FRONT
WILL BE POSITIONED WHEN IT DOES. POPS TONIGHT WERE KEPT RATHER BROAD
IN PART DUE TO THIS...AND ALSO TO COVER MULTIPLE SMALLER SHORTWAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE POSITIONED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST...MAINLY THE ONES STRETCHING FROM MISSOURI THROUGH
ILLINOIS...THAT WILL LIFT THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN TONIGHT. LIKELY
POPS WERE CARRIED ROUGHLY NORTH OF I-96...AS THE FRONT SHOULD
PROGRESS A LITTLE INTO THE AREA BEFORE THE LLJ ARRIVES.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
SURFACE FRONT...PLACING MOST LIKELY OCCURRENCE ALONG/SOUTH OF I-96.
STORMS DO NOT LOOK TO BECOME SEVERE OVERNIGHT...BUT THUNDERSTORMS
AND STRONGER SHOWERS WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL. MODEL PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO SURGE UP TO AROUND 2.0
INCHES...WELL ABOVE WHAT IS NORMAL.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY
ONGOING STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE
SERN US AND ENHANCED DEEP LAYER SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE RATHER VIGOROUS
MID LEVEL WAVE NOW LIFTING INTO NRN WISCONSIN HAS BEEN TRANSPORTING
THE AXIS OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BACK INTO SE MI TODAY. THIS PLUME OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER SRN MI MUCH OF THE DAY
SUNDAY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING OR DEVELOPING EARLY SUN MORNING OVER SE MI
AS A SECONDARY MID LEVEL IMPULSE /NOW OVER ERN KS/ LIFTS TOWARD SW
LOWER MI. THIS WAVE WILL TRANSPORT ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
ELEVATED INSTABILITY INTO SE MI DURING THE COURSE OF THE MORNING.
THE 12Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUE TO SHOW THE DEEPER WAVE NOW TRACKING
INTO NRN WISCONSIN DAMPENING AS IT TRAVERSES THE NRN GREAT LAKES
EARLY SUN. THIS WOULD INHIBIT A PUSH OF LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE INTO
SRN MI. THE EXPECTED STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL SW FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND WEAKER EASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE WILL ALSO PROVIDE A
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR THE WARM FRONT /WHICH REMAINS ALIGNED JUST
SOUTH OF THE MI BORDER/ TO LIFT INTO SE MI DURING THE COURSE OF THE
DAY SUN. DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE AND LIFT FROM ANY ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
PERTURBATIONS WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT SUN
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE DEGREE OF DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION WILL OF
COURSE BE DEPENDENT UPON THE EXTENT AND TIMING OF EARLY DAY
CONVECTION AND THE EFFICIENCY AT WHICH LOW LEVEL SW FLOW CAN
TRANSPORT INSTABILITY NORTHWARD INTO SE MI. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR ON THE
ORDER OF 30 KNOTS COMBINED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL POSE THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUN
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH THE AXIS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE OVERHEAD
/PWATS AROUND 1.9 IN/ INTENSE RAINFALL RATES WILL ACCOMPANY ANY
CONVECTION.
THE EXPECTATION FOR SOME DEGREE OF POST CONVECTIVE SUBSIDENCE SUN
NIGHT WILL PUSH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO FAR SRN
LOWER MI/NRN IND AND OHIO. DESPITE THE SHORT JUNE NIGHTS...RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO SOME FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT SUN NIGHT. THE PERSISTENT MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SERN
US WILL SUSTAIN SOME SEMBLANCE OF LOW LEVEL W-SW FLOW ACROSS THE NRN
OHIO VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. THIS ALONG WITH DAYTIME
DESTABILIZATION WILL LIKELY DRIVE THE SFC FRONT/INSTABILITY AXIS
FARTHER NORTH /IMPACTING PORTIONS IF NOT ALL OF SE MI/. THIS WILL
PROVIDE THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY
IF ENHANCED BY ANY FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE IMPULSES. SRN MI WILL
REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE BELT OF STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW TRACKING THROUGH HUDSON
BAY. FOR THIS REASON MUCH OF SE MI IS IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER IN THE DAY THREE SPC OUTLOOK.
THINGS REMAIN ROUGHLY THE SAME IN THE EXTENDED TIMEFRAME AS FAR AS
STEADY TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR PRECIP. TEMPERATURES GOING
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL HOLD STEADY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S AND LOWS IN THE 60S. ZONAL FLOW STILL DOMINATES OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION LEADING TO SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THE WEEK.
AS OF RIGHT NOW...THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS THROUGH THE REGION.
MARINE...
THE AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP HAS SHOWN A CLASSIC ADVECTION
FOG EVENT OVER LAKE HURON. AVAILABLE WEBCAMS AROUND THUNDER BAY
CONFIRM THAT THIS IS INDEED FOG AS OPPOSED TO A STRATUS DECK. RECENT
OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE PERSISTENT SE WINDS WILL CONFINE THE
MORE WIDESPREAD FOG TO THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE LAKE DURING
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THERE HAS BEEN SOME
EROSION OF THE FOG OVER ERN LAKE HURON...SO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
WILL NOT BE EXTENDED PAST THIS EVENING.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY AND
WILL FLUCTUATE BACK AND FORTH ACROSS SRN MI AND NRN OH/IN OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL POTENTIALLY BRING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK /WITH THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF PORT AUSTIN/. ANOTHER INFLUX OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER LAKE HURON SUN INTO SUN NIGHT MAY TRIGGER
ANOTHER ROUND OF DENSE FOG OVER THE COLD WATERS OF LAKE HURON.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....MR
UPDATE.......MR
SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....SC/SS
MARINE.......SC
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
922 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
.UPDATE...
MOIST BUT STABLE EAST/SE FLOW STILL HOLDING FIRM LOCALLY THIS
EVENING...NORTH OF A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
ROUGHLY FROM BATTLE CREEK TO DEFIANCE. SOME WEAKENING FILAMENTS OF
THE ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BUBBLING WITHIN THE INSTABILITY
GRADIENT ALONG/SOUTHWEST OF THE FRONT MAY TEND TO FUNNEL DOWNSTREAM
AND INTO SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF SE MICHIGAN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. THIS WILL PRESENT THE CORRIDOR SOUTH OF M-59 WITH A LOWER
END CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE NIGHT. MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE HEADING INTO THE
EARLY-MID MORNING HOURS UNDER INCREASING THETA-E ADVECTION. THIS
WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER/ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS TIME...PARTICULARLY AS THE SFC-950 MB
FRONTAL SLOPE BEGINS TO ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD. MOST RECENT HI RES
SOLUTIONS AND RAP OUTPUT FAVOR THIS TIME WINDOW FOR SOME DEGREE OF
DEVELOPMENT LOCALLY /08Z-15Z/. UPDATE FORTHCOMING TO ADJUST
POPS/QPF DOWN PRIOR TO THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 738 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN DEFINED BY MOIST EAST/SE FLOW NORTH
OF A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. SOME LATE
EVENING REDUCTION IN STRATUS COVERAGE APPEARS SHORT LIVED...AS A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT EXISTS FOR RENEWED STRATUS EXPANSION AND
FALLING CEILING HEIGHTS. THIS WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE EARLY AND MID MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY.
INCREASING MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTIVE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AREAWIDE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING
PERIOD. WHILE THIS MAY SUPPORT SOME EMBEDDED ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS...THE QUESTIONABLE COVERAGE/TIMING WILL PRECLUDE ANY
MENTION AT THIS POINT. THE WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO SE MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY. CEILINGS WILL LIFT FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY AS THIS PROCESS UNFOLDS. POTENTIAL FOR
LATE DAY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
INCREASES SOUTH OF THIS FRONT.
FOR DTW...FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN PLACE TO MAINTAIN A LOW STRATUS
DECK RIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING PERIOD. INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
CIGS TO FALL INTO LIFR FOR A PERIOD EARLY-MID MORNING. POSSIBLE
EXPANSION IN SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING...LIMITED ELEVATED THUNDER
POTENTIAL WITH NO MENTION YET GIVEN QUESTIONABLE TIMING/COVERAGE.
BETTER INSTABILITY BRINGS HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...MEDIUM
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
* LOW IN THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE AIRSPACE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. MEDIUM FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 358 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS EVENING WILL PRIMARILY BE LIMITED TO
NEAR THE OHIO BORDER AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT UP INTO
MICHIGAN. ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE FRONT...T/TDS IN THE LOW-MID
80S/LOW 70S HAVE ALLOWED SB CAPE VALUES TO BUILD TO 1000-2000
J/KG...JUST NOSING INTO FAR SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN. BUBBLE OF
INSTABILITY ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE FRONT MAY JUST BRUSH LENAWEE
COUNTY AFTER 5 PM...ALLOWING A STRONGER THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO
DEVELOP. SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS LIMITED AS IT WOULD TAKE A FEW HOURS
AT LEAST TO BUILD T/TDS HIGH ENOUGH TO ALLOW STRONGER STORMS TO
PROGRESS INTO THIS AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT A WIND GUST TO 50 MPH OR
1/2 HAIL HOWEVER AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
UPPER WAVE OVER WISCONSIN WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN AND LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE OVER OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
WARM FRONT LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE MICHIGAN STATE LINE TO LIFT UP
INTO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...AND THEN INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL
MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL DELINEATE A WARMER
AND MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS (GOOD THETA-E PUSH AFTER 21Z)...MARKED BY
SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 70. QUESTION WILL BE HOW HIGH THE
SHOWER/TSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE OVERNIGHT...AND WHAT TIME THE FRONT
WILL BE MOST ACTIVE. MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE WITH WHAT TIME A 30-
40 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL NOSE UP INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. WILL FOLLOW
THE STRONGER CONSENSUS OFFERED BY THE GFS/EURO...AS THEY SEEM TO
OFFER A BETTER SOLUTION TO THE HANDLING OF THE LARGER UPPER WAVE TO
OUR NORTHWEST...STRONGER. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AS
THE LOW-LEVEL JET NOSES IN...RIDING A SURGE OF WARMER AIR AND
MOISTURE UP INTO THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSING FRONTAL SLOPE. TRICKY
PART IS DETERMINING WHAT TIME THIS WILL HAPPEN...AND WHERE THE FRONT
WILL BE POSITIONED WHEN IT DOES. POPS TONIGHT WERE KEPT RATHER BROAD
IN PART DUE TO THIS...AND ALSO TO COVER MULTIPLE SMALLER SHORTWAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE POSITIONED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST...MAINLY THE ONES STRETCHING FROM MISSOURI THROUGH
ILLINOIS...THAT WILL LIFT THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN TONIGHT. LIKELY
POPS WERE CARRIED ROUGHLY NORTH OF I-96...AS THE FRONT SHOULD
PROGRESS A LITTLE INTO THE AREA BEFORE THE LLJ ARRIVES.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
SURFACE FRONT...PLACING MOST LIKELY OCCURRENCE ALONG/SOUTH OF I-96.
STORMS DO NOT LOOK TO BECOME SEVERE OVERNIGHT...BUT THUNDERSTORMS
AND STRONGER SHOWERS WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL. MODEL PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO SURGE UP TO AROUND 2.0
INCHES...WELL ABOVE WHAT IS NORMAL.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY
ONGOING STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE
SERN US AND ENHANCED DEEP LAYER SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE RATHER VIGOROUS
MID LEVEL WAVE NOW LIFTING INTO NRN WISCONSIN HAS BEEN TRANSPORTING
THE AXIS OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BACK INTO SE MI TODAY. THIS PLUME OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER SRN MI MUCH OF THE DAY
SUNDAY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING OR DEVELOPING EARLY SUN MORNING OVER SE MI
AS A SECONDARY MID LEVEL IMPULSE /NOW OVER ERN KS/ LIFTS TOWARD SW
LOWER MI. THIS WAVE WILL TRANSPORT ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
ELEVATED INSTABILITY INTO SE MI DURING THE COURSE OF THE MORNING.
THE 12Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUE TO SHOW THE DEEPER WAVE NOW TRACKING
INTO NRN WISCONSIN DAMPENING AS IT TRAVERSES THE NRN GREAT LAKES
EARLY SUN. THIS WOULD INHIBIT A PUSH OF LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE INTO
SRN MI. THE EXPECTED STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL SW FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND WEAKER EASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE WILL ALSO PROVIDE A
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR THE WARM FRONT /WHICH REMAINS ALIGNED JUST
SOUTH OF THE MI BORDER/ TO LIFT INTO SE MI DURING THE COURSE OF THE
DAY SUN. DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE AND LIFT FROM ANY ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
PERTURBATIONS WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT SUN
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE DEGREE OF DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION WILL OF
COURSE BE DEPENDENT UPON THE EXTENT AND TIMING OF EARLY DAY
CONVECTION AND THE EFFICIENCY AT WHICH LOW LEVEL SW FLOW CAN
TRANSPORT INSTABILITY NORTHWARD INTO SE MI. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR ON THE
ORDER OF 30 KNOTS COMBINED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL POSE THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUN
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH THE AXIS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE OVERHEAD
/PWATS AROUND 1.9 IN/ INTENSE RAINFALL RATES WILL ACCOMPANY ANY
CONVECTION.
THE EXPECTATION FOR SOME DEGREE OF POST CONVECTIVE SUBSIDENCE SUN
NIGHT WILL PUSH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO FAR SRN
LOWER MI/NRN IND AND OHIO. DESPITE THE SHORT JUNE NIGHTS...RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO SOME FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT SUN NIGHT. THE PERSISTENT MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SERN
US WILL SUSTAIN SOME SEMBLANCE OF LOW LEVEL W-SW FLOW ACROSS THE NRN
OHIO VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. THIS ALONG WITH DAYTIME
DESTABILIZATION WILL LIKELY DRIVE THE SFC FRONT/INSTABILITY AXIS
FARTHER NORTH /IMPACTING PORTIONS IF NOT ALL OF SE MI/. THIS WILL
PROVIDE THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY
IF ENHANCED BY ANY FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE IMPULSES. SRN MI WILL
REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE BELT OF STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW TRACKING THROUGH HUDSON
BAY. FOR THIS REASON MUCH OF SE MI IS IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER IN THE DAY THREE SPC OUTLOOK.
THINGS REMAIN ROUGHLY THE SAME IN THE EXTENDED TIMEFRAME AS FAR AS
STEADY TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR PRECIP. TEMPERATURES GOING
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL HOLD STEADY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S AND LOWS IN THE 60S. ZONAL FLOW STILL DOMINATES OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION LEADING TO SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THE WEEK.
AS OF RIGHT NOW...THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS THROUGH THE REGION.
MARINE...
THE AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP HAS SHOWN A CLASSIC ADVECTION
FOG EVENT OVER LAKE HURON. AVAILABLE WEBCAMS AROUND THUNDER BAY
CONFIRM THAT THIS IS INDEED FOG AS OPPOSED TO A STRATUS DECK. RECENT
OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE PERSISTENT SE WINDS WILL CONFINE THE
MORE WIDESPREAD FOG TO THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE LAKE DURING
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THERE HAS BEEN SOME
EROSION OF THE FOG OVER ERN LAKE HURON...SO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
WILL NOT BE EXTENDED PAST THIS EVENING.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY AND
WILL FLUCTUATE BACK AND FORTH ACROSS SRN MI AND NRN OH/IN OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL POTENTIALLY BRING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK /WITH THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF PORT AUSTIN/. ANOTHER INFLUX OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER LAKE HURON SUN INTO SUN NIGHT MAY TRIGGER
ANOTHER ROUND OF DENSE FOG OVER THE COLD WATERS OF LAKE HURON.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ361>363.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......MR
AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....SC/SS
MARINE.......SC
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
747 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN WISCONSIN AT THIS TIME...LEADING TO AN
AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHWEST OF ONTONAGON
SOUTHWEST INTO WEST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS (LOCATED
IN THE COMMA HEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE) WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT AND SHIFT
NORTH ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
MEANWHILE...THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL/EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING (CURRENTLY IN EASTERN WISCONSIN)
AND BE AIDING SHOWERS THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THAT AREA. THUS...HAVE
SHOWN A GRADUAL DIMINISHMENT IN THE POPS OVER THE WEST THIS
EVENING...WITH A TREND TO THE EAST WITH THE BETTER SUPPORT FROM THE
SHORTWAVE AND LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. AS THIS INITIAL PUSH OF
SHOWERS MOVES INTO THE CWA...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA (ALREADY SEEN IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN WISCONSIN WITH LOW
CEILINGS AND 2-3MI VISIBILITIES). THESE LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG WILL
REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE BEEN SEEING
DENSE FOG SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY NORTH ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE IN WISCONSIN THROUGH THE DAY AND WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...WOULD EXPECT FOG (LIKELY DENSE) TO AFFECT
NORTHWEST LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THAT TIME. THE WINDS AREN/T THE MOST
FAVORABLE...BUT WITH WATER TEMPS STILL ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S...HAVE
A FEELING THE FOG WILL REALLY EXPAND/THICKEN TONIGHT AND MAY NEED A
MARINE FOG ADVISORY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION FOG OVER THE LAND
AREAS TOO...BASED ON THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LOW CLOUDS MOVING
NORTH INTO THE AREA. ARE SEEING SOME SPECKS OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING AND THINKING THAT IS LARGELY DUE TO
DRIZZLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CLOUDS. WITH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOWING SOME WEAK LIFT WITHIN THE LOW CLOUDS...WILL SHOW PATCHY
DRIZZLE BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND THEN SHIFTING OVER JUST
THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA TOMORROW MORNING.
A SECOND SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY IN NORTHERN MISSOURI...WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE LOCATED FARTHER
TO THE SOUTHEAST AND ONLY BRUSH THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA
LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. BEHIND THAT SECOND
SHORTWAVE...THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN FEATURES...AS AN UPPER TROUGH
IS MOVING EAST THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. A LOW CENTERED NEAR
WESTERN HUDSON BAY WILL HAVE A COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTH THROUGH
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND THE EASTERN DAKOTAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW LOW THE LOW CLOUDS WILL
STICK AROUND THROUGH THE DAY AND IF ANY OF THE FOG OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL AFFECT THE SHORELINE AREAS UNDER THE LIGHT WINDS.
MODELS SEEM CONSISTENT THAT THERE WILL BE EITHER SOME BREAKS OR
SCATTERING OUT OF THE LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE WESTERN
THIRD OF THE U.P.. BUT BELIEVE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH ADDED LIFT FROM
DIURNAL HEATING AND ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO KEEP CONDITIONS
MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE EASTERN HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA. DID
LINGER SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON FROM GWINN TO NEWBERRY WITH THE ADDED LIFT AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
HOPING MODELS IN THE LONG TERM VERIFY BETTER THAN OVER THE LAST FEW
DAYS...WHEN MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN ABSOLUTELY AWFUL.
SUN NIGHT SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY...BUT DRY FOR THE MOST
PART.
MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT (RESULTING FROM A
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS CANADA) TO DURING THE DAY ON MON...WHICH IF
THAT DID OCCUR WOULD RESULT IN PRECIP MAINLY OVER LAND DURING PEAK
HEATING. WILL RUN WITH CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE...WHICH RESULTS IN
CHANCE POPS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN MON NIGHT AND TUE...RESULTING IN
PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER AND SUNNY SKIES. SHOULD BE A COOLER DAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 70 AS 850MB TEMPS WILL BE
5-8C.
LOW CONFIDENCE FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SAT AS MODELS STRUGGLE TO
HANDLE AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE THAT MAY MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN TUE
NIGHT AND WED NIGHT. ALSO...MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON THE
TIMING/STRENGTH OF A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH THAT MAY MOVE THROUGH
BETWEEN THU AND FRI NIGHT...AND WITH POSSIBLY ANOTHER WAVE NEXT SAT.
WILL JUST RUN WITH A 50/50 BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 741 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
A DISTURBANCE LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO MAINLY KCMX AND KSAW THIS EVENING. AS THESE SHOWERS MOVE
THROUGH...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA...LEADING TO RAPIDLY LOWERING CEILINGS TO IFR OR LOWER...ALONG
WITH FOG AND DRIZZLE. THE LOW CEILINGS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS BEFORE STARTING TO RISE TOWARDS MVFR OR VFR LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL LEAD TO WINDS STAYING BELOW 20KTS FOR
MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK. THE STRONGEST WIND ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON
MONDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT...BUT THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 20KTS. WARM AND MOIST AIR STREAMING NORTH INTO THE AREA TODAY
INTO SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.
EXPECT LOCALLY DENSE FOG TO OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...AIDED
BY SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT WILL FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LAKE
TONIGHT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...RETRANSMITTED
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
343 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
.SHORT TERM... THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES THE SFC FRONT ACROSS THE NRN
DETROIT SUBURBS. THE MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS HOWEVER DEVELOPED SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE DTX FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THUS ANY
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL HAVE ENDED.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH...REACHING THE OHIO BORDER THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO LOWER MI FROM
THE NORTH. A REGION OF GOOD MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS NOW EXPANDING
ACROSS NRN MI IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY MORNING SHORT WAVE /NOW
ROLLING EAST OF GEORGAIN BAY/. MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL BE
SUSTAINED ACROSS NRN/CNTRL MI INTO THE NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE MID
LEVEL RIDGE TRAVERSES THIS REGION. THIS WILL FORCE THE MID
TROPOSPHERIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED MOIST AXIS INTO THE SRN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE EVENING. SOME
RESIDUAL FRONTAL FORCING WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A PERSISTENT
UPPER JET MAX OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES WILL SUPPORT SOME ISOLD/SCT
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE EAST OF LOWER MI
OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING THE MID LEVEL THETA E PLUME TO NUDGE BACK
NORTHWARD TOWARD DAYBREAK SAT...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTH LATE.
THERE HAS BEEN A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF POST FRONTAL STRATUS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE
SHALLOW POST FRONTAL AIRMASS EXPANDS TO THE SOUTH THIS
EVENING...THIS LOW STRATUS DECK /WITH SOME POCKETS OF DRIZZLE/ WILL
PUSH SOUTH AS WELL. BOTH THE NAM AND RAP SUGGEST THESE CLOUDS MIXING
OUT ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB LATER THIS EVENING...WHICH
WOULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THESE LOCALS
OVERNIGHT. OBSERVATIONS ACROSS NRN LOWER MI SUGGESTS A SLOWER PUSH
OF DRY AIR THAN SHOWN BY MODEL SOLUTIONS. THIS AND GIVEN THE
EXPECTED DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION...LOW CLOUDS SEEM MORE
LIKELY TO HOLD THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT. THIS WILL
SUPPORT LEANING TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE
/MID 50S NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTH/.
&&
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY
WEEKEND FORECAST STILL CARRIES A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AS WE
CONTINUE TO DEAL WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATING OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. SATURDAY DOES LOOK QUIETER IN A RELATIVE SENSE
HOWEVER...AS THE SURFACE FRONT STARTS THE DAY JUST SOUTH OF THE
MICHIGAN/OHIO BORDER AND RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SLIDE INTO
THE AREA...STRENGTHENING A CAP OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. UNCERTAINTY
LIES WITH A SHIFT IN THE MODELS WITH THE 12Z CYCLE...LIFTING THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK NORTHWARD FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS
LOOKS TO BE DUE TO MODELS GIVING THE UPPER WAVE NOW OVER
NEBRASKA/OKLAHOMA MORE CREDIT...AND THE SHORTWAVE DOES LOOK FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL TREND THE
FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION...BUT GIVE PREFERENCE TO THE SLOWER MODEL
SOLUTIONS DUE IN PART TO THE COLDER LAKE WATERS AND ALSO DUE TO
RECENT TRENDS IN THE MODELS TO PULL THIS FRONT TOO FAR NORTH TOO
QUICKLY THE PAST FEW DAYS.
AS THE WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES...IT WILL PULL
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF THE MICHIGAN BORDER
BACK THROUGH THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT. THIS MAY TRIGGER
SHOWERS/TSTORMS AS THIS OCCURS...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED BY
THE STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE SATURDAY. ONLY HAVE GOOD
CONFIDENCE WITH THE ELEVATED PORTIONS OF THE FRONT MAKING IT UP HERE
BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. SURFACE
FRONT MAY CLIP LENAWEE COUNTY HOWEVER...ALLOWING SOME SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION...BUT INSTABILITY STILL DOESN`T LOOK TO BUILD TOO
HIGH...ESPECIALLY WITH EARLY DAY CLOUDS.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD LIFT INTO AT LEAST CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AS LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WAVE INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN
POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE DAY...PLACING
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN IN THE WARM SECTOR. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ARE ALREADY WELL-ESTABLISHED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 AND TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW/MID 80S. SHOWER/TSTORM CHANCES LOOK PRETTY GOOD SATURDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...AND DID CONTINUE WITH HIGHER
CHANCES...THOUGH KEPT THEM LIMITED BELOW LIKELY DUE TO RECENT MODEL
SHIFTS. WILL NEED A TRIGGER TO FIRE OFF CONVECTION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...POTENTIALLY LOOKING TO MCV`S/DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARIES FROM UPSTREAM/EARLIER CONVECTION...LAKE
BREEZES...AND THEN THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT TOWARDS EVENING.
WARM TEMPS/HIGH DEWPOINTS LOOK TO YIELD SB CAPE VALUES AROUND 1500
J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW STRONGER
UPDRAFTS. WIND PROFILE IS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE...WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW UNDER 30 KNOTS THROUGH ABOUT 600MB. STILL...STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES MAY HELP PROMOTE A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN CLOSER TO 2.0
INCHES...AND STORM MOTION SLOWS.
EXTENDED FORECAST...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...REMAINS MORE ON THE
ACTIVE SIDE AS THE REGION REMAINS FASTENED IN ZONAL FLOW. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR VARIOUS SHORTWAVES TO TRANSVERSE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK. CONSISTENT TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO BE IN PLAY AS HIGHS RANGE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
DEGREES...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S.
&&
.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAGINAW BAY THIS
EVENING AS WINDS REMAIN NORTHEAST AT AROUND 20 KNOTS. SURFACE
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS AND LOWER WAVE
HEIGHTS ON SATURDAY BEFORE AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ALLOWS FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SUNDAY.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH SATURDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH
OF THE AREA...WITH JUST A FEW STORMS EXPECTED OVER LAKE ST CLAIR AND
WESTERN LAKE ERIE. A WARM FRONT LIFTING BACK THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL THEN BRING AN INCREASE IN
COVERAGE...WITH THE THREAT FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS ON SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 102 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY HAS STRUGGLED TO LIFT INTO SE MI...THEREFORE
THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON IS NOW QUITE LOW. A
SHALLOW COLD LAYER OF AIR HAS UNDERCUT THE FAIRLY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE...LEADING TO AN EXPANDING REGION OF LOW MOISTURE BECOMING
TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION. THE NET RESULT IS A AN AREA OF IFR
STRATUS. THESE LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST WELL INTO THE
EVENING IF NOT THROUGH THE ENTIRE NIGHT AS THE CONTINUE TO EXPAND
TOWARD THE SOUTH AND EAST. MODEL SOLUTIONS TRY TO ERODE THESE CLOUDS
LATER THIS EVENING. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR...THERE WOULD BE A RISK
FOR SOME DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING IN LIGHT
OF THE AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WITH A PERSISTENT NE FLOW OFF LAKE
HURON SUSTAINING A DEEP LOW LEVEL INVERSION...IT SEEMS MORE LIKELY
THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST INTO SAT MORNING. THIS WILL SUPPORT
REFRAINING FROM THE MENTION OF DENSE FOG IN THE TERMINALS ATTM.
FOR DTW...THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN MORE WIDESPREAD FROM KTOL SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER METRO DETROIT
MAY SUPPORT A BRIEF ELEVATED STORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
OTHERWISE...THE CHANCES ARE NOW APPEARING QUITE LOW.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* LOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
* HIGH IN CEILINGS DROPPING BELOW 5000 FT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ421-422.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SC
LONG TERM....HLO/SS
MARINE.......HLO
AVIATION.....SC
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
155 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
AN ACTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION TO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL WAVER SOUTH AND NORTH OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK ALONG IT. THIS FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SO WE WILL HAVE NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR RAIN
OVER THE COMING DAYS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY. THERE
IS ALSO A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. THE
THREAT FOR TODAY IS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KALAMAZOO TO LANSING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
DESPITE AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS FOR ORGANIZED STORMS..
LACK OF INSTABILITY HAS BEEN A BIG LIMITING FACTOR AND CURRENT MU
CAPES ARE ONLY 100-300 J/KG. UPSTREAM CLOUD TOPS ON IR SATELLITE
HAVE BEEN ACCORDINGLY WARMING OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AND OVERALL
LIGHTNING TREND HAS BEEN DOWN. THUS THE RISK FOR ANY STRONG/SEVERE
TSTMS IS VERY LOW THROUGH MID MORNING.
HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN IS VERY MUCH ALIVE WITH 40-50 KT
SWLY LOW LEVEL JET POINTED AT THE AREA THROUGH 15Z COINCIDENT WITH
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE RELATED TO RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION UPPER LEVEL
JET DYNAMICS. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RATES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID
MORNING.
THE FOCUS THIS AFTERNOON IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO
RE FIRE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE SE CWFA. THERE IS ONLY A
RELATIVELY NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY AND LOW CHANCE FOR THIS TO
HAPPEN AS LATEST RUC SFC BASED CAPES ARE JUST RECOVERING ABOUT THE
TIME THE FRONT IS SLIPPING THROUGH. THE MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE JUST
SOUTH AND EAST OF JXN. OTHERWISE THE LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS DECREASING
POPS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CURRENT WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
MAIN FCST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE STRATUS AND
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE POTENTIAL WITH MOIST LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW
IMPACTING THE AREA. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE LOW CLOUDS TO
SCATTER OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN HIGH JUNE SUN ANGLE.
RENEWED CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
AS WARM FRONT BUCKLES BACK NORTH. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRONGER STORMS SUNDAY AS AFTERNOON CAPES ARE
PROGGED TO EXCEED 2000 J/KG OVER SRN LWR MI.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT
FRI JUN 12 2015
WE ARE LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST. THE FCST IS
RATHER WET WITH MILD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD.
THE WET WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM
ON SUN NIGHT. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MEANDERING BACK AND FORTH WILL BE
ACROSS THE CWFA SUN NIGHT WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
THE FRONT. IT WILL TAKE UNTIL DURING THE DAY ON MON FOR THE WAVE TO
MOVE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW THE FRONT TO DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA.
IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE SEVERE WX THREAT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE CWFA
WITH THE FRONT MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA BY THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING.
WE DO SEE A LIKELY DRY PERIOD FOR THE DAY ON TUE. WE WILL SEE SHORT
WAVE RIDGING BUILD IN BY TUE MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE MON WAVE AND
AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN.
THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR MORE RAIN ON WED AND THU ACROSS THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS OF THE TIMING AND LOCATION ARE STILL A
BIT UNCERTAIN. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL FLATTEN OUT A BIT ACROSS
THE CONUS...VERSUS THE SW FLOW ALOFT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING THE PAST
FEW DAYS. THAT SAID...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MORE WAVES RIDE IN
ALONG THIS FLOW ALONG THE NEARLY STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP PCPN CHCS POSSIBLE FOR THE AREA
AND KEEP TEMPS FROM BECOMING TOO WARM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF THE LAST 12-18 HOURS HAS RESULTED IN A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER AND WILL LIKELY LEAD TO CONTINUED LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. IN FACT...EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WITH CEILINGS BELOW
1000FT. IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS WILL LIKELY NOT TAKE PLACE UNTIL AT
LEAST SATURDAY MIDDAY...IF NOT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FOG WILL LIKELY
BE LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF 3-5SM OR MVFR. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHEASTERLY AS WE HEAD INTO THIS EVENING AND EAST TONIGHT. SPEEDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF 5-10 KNOTS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE SHORT TERM WILL KEEP WAVES ON THE LOW SIDE AND
ALSO LIMIT THE FOG POTENTIAL IN THE NEARSHORE AREA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1238 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITH UNDER A HALF INCH OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE.
RIVER LEVELS ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN ARE MOVING UP... BUT
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL. RIVERS WILL RUN HIGHER THAN
NORMAL HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK... WHEN ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED AND MINOR RIVER FLOODING MAY OCCUR ACROSS
THE AREA. THE SOUTH OF MICHIGAN HAS NOT RECEIVED MUCH RAIN AND RIVER
LEVELS REMAIN STEADY.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
$$
SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...NJJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
149 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
1004MB SFC LOW IS OVER SE IOWA AS OF 07Z...WELL TO THE SOUTH OF
WHERE IT WAS SUPPOSED TO BE TRACKING. SO...THE HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED
TO IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL UPR MICHIGAN ALSO STAYED WELL TO THE SOUTH
CLOSER TO SFC WARM FRONT AND MORE CONCENTRATED SHRA/TSRA. LATEST
RADAR LOOP AND HRRR OUTPUT DO SUGGEST LGT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
CLIP FAR SCNTRL THROUGH 13-14Z AS SHORTWAVE OVER CNTRL WI SLIDES EAST
NORTHEAST. PRECIP AMOUNTS LESS THAN 0.05 INCH SO FAR AT KMNM.
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS TIL THE RAIN ENDS SHOULD CHECK IN LESS THAN 0.25
INCH.
TOUGH TO SEE WITH MID-HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD...BUT BASED ON VISUAL
OBSERVATION AT OUR OFFICE...LOW CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN WITH WEAK EAST-NORTHEAST
LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON FAR NORTH SIDE OF THE SFC LOW. MAKES SENSE AS THIS
AREA IS JUST TO WESTERN EDGE OF THICKER MID CLOUDS. RAP/NAM/LOCAL
WRF-ARW ALL POINT TO THESE LOW CLOUDS ONLY EXPANDING THROUGH
DAYBREAK...BEFORE GRADUALLY THINNING OUT BY LATE MORNING AS MIXING
INTO THE DRY AIRMASS SETTLING OVERHEAD TAKES A TOLL. ANY FOG THUS
FAR OVER LAND HAS BEEN PATCHY GROUND TYPE WITH VSBY DOWN BLO 1SM AT
TIMES. BASED ON AVAILABLE OBSERVATIONS AND WEB CAMS...FOG DOES NOT
SEEM TO BE WIDESPREAD. WILL NOT EMPHASIZE THE FOG BUT WILL KEEP
SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY LONGER FOR THE CNTRL THIS MORNING.
ONCE SKIES CLEAR LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...EXPECT A CHILLY
NIGHT INLAND OVER THE WEST AS DRY AIRMASS MOVES OVERHEAD /PWATS DOWN
BLO 0.4 INCH/ AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT BENEATH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS. LOWERED MIN TEMPS INTO THE UPR 30S AT THE TYPICAL
COOL SPOTS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 40S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM WL FOCUS ON POPS/POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HEAVY RA THAT WL ACCOMPANY A SHRTWV LIFTING NEWD INTO THE GREAT
LKS/SURGE IN PWAT ON SUN WITHIN A DEEP SW FLOW ALOFT TO THE E OF A
TROF DIGGING INTO THE NRN PLAINS. LOOKS LIKE TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WL
BE NOT FAR FM NORMAL BUT THEN TREND COOLER NEXT WEEK AS THE TROF
SHIFTS OVER THE UPR LKS.
SAT...HI PRES IS FCST TO BE OVER NE LK SUP ON SUN AS UPR RDG AXIS
SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE E. WITH DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND H85 TEMPS FCST
IN THE 11-13C RANGE...EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND MAX TEMPS
IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 AWAY FM THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF THE LKS.
GIVEN SE H925 FLOW...THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF LK MI WL BE MORE SGFNT.
SAT NGT...UPR FLOW OVER UPR MI IS FCST TO TURN TO THE SW FLOW BTWN
UPR RDG SHIFTING TO THE E AND UPR TROF MOVING FM THE ROCKIES INTO
THE NRN PLAINS. SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE NEAR
WI BY 12Z SUN. MODELS SHOW PWAT INCRSG TO ABOUT 1.5 INCHES BY 12Z
SUN AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE...SO EXPECT INCRSG CLDS WITH SOME
SHOWERS MOVING INTO AT LEAST THE WI BORDER COUNTIES BY SUNRISE.
DESPITE INCRSG PWAT...MODELS SHOW MARGINAL LAPSE RATES/LIMITED
INSTABILITY...SO WL NOT INCLUDE A MENTION OF TS.
SUN/SUN NGT...DEEP...ALBEIT RELATIVELY LGT SW FLOW IS FCST TO LIFT
PWAT AS HI AS 1.5-2 INCHES...ABOUT 175 TO 225 PCT OF NORMAL. WHILE
MODEL QPF VARIES GREATLY...LOOKS LIKE THE SE HALF OF THE CWA HAS THE
BEST CHC FOR THE HIER POPS/HEAVIER RA. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE PATTERN
BTWN UPR TROF TO THE W AND RDG TO THE E THAT WOULD FAVOR A MORE SW
VERSUS WSW FLOW ALOFT SHOWN BY THE DRIER 00Z GFS...PREFER THE WETTER
12Z ECMWF/00Z NAM FOR FCST SPECIFICS. HEAVY RA WL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SE HALF OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO THE FCST TRACK OF
THE SFC LO AND WHERE A SFC TROF MAY PERSIST FOR A PERIOD OF TIME AND
ENHANCE LLVL CNVGC AHEAD OF THE APRCHG SFC LO. DESPITE FCST MARGINAL
LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY WITH SSI FCST NO LOWER THAN ABOUT 1 TO -
1C...OPTED TO MAINTAIN FCST SCHC TS OVER MAINLY THE SE HALF OF THE
CWA GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE MOISTENING. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
SHRTWV/SFC LO ON SUN NGT...POPS WL DIMINISH W-E WITH ARRIVAL OF
DRIER AIR. SINCE THE MID LVL DRYING BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHRTWV IS
LIKELY TO BE MORE EMPHATIC THAN IN THE LLVLS IF COLD FROPA
ASSOCIATED WITH APRCHG OUT OF PHASE UPR TROF IS SLOWER...FOG MAY
BECOME A CONCERN ESPECIALLY IF AND WHERE SOME HEAVIER RA FALLS.
MON...PROGRESSIVE UPR TROF AXIS IS FCST TO SWING INTO THE UPR LKS...
WITH ACCOMPANYING COLD FROPA EXPECTED LATE SUN NGT/MON MRNG. WITH
THE MID LVL DNVA/DRYING BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHRTWV AND ARRIVAL OF
THIS FNT IN THE LATE NGT/MRNG WHEN DAYTIME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION
WL NOT BE A FACTOR...EXPECT NO MORE THAN SCHC POPS. THE APRCH OF HI
PRES/ARRIVAL OF DRY AIR WL ALLOW FOR MORE AFTN SUNSHINE.
EXTENDED...DRY HI PRES UNDER THE PROGRESSIVE UPR TROF WL BRING DRY
WX FOR AT LEAST TUE. THE LONGER RANGE GFS/ECMWF MODELS THEN HINT
SOME DISTURBANCES IN A MORE ZONAL FLOW MAY IMPACT THE UPR LKS ON
WED/THU. GIVEN THE RATHER UNPREDICTABLE NATURE OF THE UPR FLOW
IN THE LONG TERM THIS TIME OF YEAR...WL RELY ON MODEL CONSENSUS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. WITH LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT...BELIEVE SHALLOW GROUND FOG WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AFFECTING KCMX/KSAW. LEFT KIWD OUT AT THIS
POINT...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS LOOK TO BE STRONG ENOUGH OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST TO INCREASE MIXING AND LIMIT FOG. A DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD...LEADING TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
JUST AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 845 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
UPDATE FOR FRIDAY AT 845AM. BASED OFF VISIBLE SATELLITE AND WEBCAMS
THIS MORNING...DECIDED TO ISSUE A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HAVE SET A 4PM END TIME FOR
NOW...BUT THERE WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE TWEAKS TO THE END TIME LATER
TODAY. WITH WEAK WINDS OVER THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS...THERE MAY BE
LITTLE MOVEMENT OR DISSIPATION OF THE FOG FOR SOME AREAS OF EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND HI
OVERWATER STABILITY TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...EXPECT WINDS
UNDER 20 KTS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THERE WILL BE
PERIODS OF FOG AS FAIRLY HUMID AIR FLOWS OVER THE CHILLY LAKE WATERS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THICKER/MORE WIDESPREAD FOG WILL BE ON SUN AND
SUN NIGHT...WHEN THE MOST HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED OVER THE UPPER LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ249>251-
266-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...KC/SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1238 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
AN ACTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION TO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL WAVER SOUTH AND NORTH OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK ALONG IT. THIS FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SO WE WILL HAVE NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR RAIN
OVER THE COMING DAYS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY. THERE
IS ALSO A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. THE
THREAT FOR TODAY IS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KALAMAZOO TO LANSING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
DESPITE AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS FOR ORGANIZED STORMS..
LACK OF INSTABILITY HAS BEEN A BIG LIMITING FACTOR AND CURRENT MU
CAPES ARE ONLY 100-300 J/KG. UPSTREAM CLOUD TOPS ON IR SATELLITE
HAVE BEEN ACCORDINGLY WARMING OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AND OVERALL
LIGHTNING TREND HAS BEEN DOWN. THUS THE RISK FOR ANY STRONG/SEVERE
TSTMS IS VERY LOW THROUGH MID MORNING.
HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN IS VERY MUCH ALIVE WITH 40-50 KT
SWLY LOW LEVEL JET POINTED AT THE AREA THROUGH 15Z COINCIDENT WITH
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE RELATED TO RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION UPPER LEVEL
JET DYNAMICS. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RATES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID
MORNING.
THE FOCUS THIS AFTERNOON IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO
RE FIRE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE SE CWFA. THERE IS ONLY A
RELATIVELY NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY AND LOW CHANCE FOR THIS TO
HAPPEN AS LATEST RUC SFC BASED CAPES ARE JUST RECOVERING ABOUT THE
TIME THE FRONT IS SLIPPING THROUGH. THE MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE JUST
SOUTH AND EAST OF JXN. OTHERWISE THE LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS DECREASING
POPS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CURRENT WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
MAIN FCST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE STRATUS AND
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE POTENTIAL WITH MOIST LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW
IMPACTING THE AREA. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE LOW CLOUDS TO
SCATTER OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN HIGH JUNE SUN ANGLE.
RENEWED CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
AS WARM FRONT BUCKLES BACK NORTH. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRONGER STORMS SUNDAY AS AFTERNOON CAPES ARE
PROGGED TO EXCEED 2000 J/KG OVER SRN LWR MI.
LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
WE ARE LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST. THE FCST IS
RATHER WET WITH MILD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD.
THE WET WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM
ON SUN NIGHT. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MEANDERING BACK AND FORTH WILL BE
ACROSS THE CWFA SUN NIGHT WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
THE FRONT. IT WILL TAKE UNTIL DURING THE DAY ON MON FOR THE WAVE TO
MOVE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW THE FRONT TO DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA.
IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE SEVERE WX THREAT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE CWFA
WITH THE FRONT MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA BY THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING.
WE DO SEE A LIKELY DRY PERIOD FOR THE DAY ON TUE. WE WILL SEE SHORT
WAVE RIDGING BUILD IN BY TUE MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE MON WAVE AND
AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN.
THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR MORE RAIN ON WED AND THU ACROSS THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS OF THE TIMING AND LOCATION ARE STILL A
BIT UNCERTAIN. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL FLATTEN OUT A BIT ACROSS
THE CONUS...VERSUS THE SW FLOW ALOFT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING THE PAST
FEW DAYS. THAT SAID...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MORE WAVES RIDE IN
ALONG THIS FLOW ALONG THE NEARLY STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP PCPN CHCS POSSIBLE FOR THE AREA
AND KEEP TEMPS FROM BECOMING TOO WARM.
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 753 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING RANGE FROM IFR AT MKG AND GRR TO VFR
AT JXN. LOWER CIGS IN THE MVFR TO IFR CATEGORY WILL SPREAD
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH TIME TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH WILL OCCASIONALLY/BRIEFLY REDUCE THE VSBYS. THE THUNDER
THREAT IS VERY LOW NOW... ALTHOUGH A FEW MAY FLARE UP AGAIN
AROUND JXN 15Z-19Z. WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AS STRATUS/FOG IMPACT THE AREA.
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE SHORT TERM WILL KEEP WAVES ON THE LOW SIDE AND
ALSO LIMIT THE FOG POTENTIAL IN THE NEARSHORE AREA.
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1238 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITH UNDER A HALF INCH OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE.
RIVER LEVELS ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN ARE MOVING UP... BUT
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL. RIVERS WILL RUN HIGHER THAN
NORMAL HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK... WHEN ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED AND MINOR RIVER FLOODING MAY OCCUR ACROSS
THE AREA. THE SOUTH OF MICHIGAN HAS NOT RECEIVED MUCH RAIN AND RIVER
LEVELS REMAIN STEADY.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
$$
SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...63
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MARQUETTE MI
846 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
1004MB SFC LOW IS OVER SE IOWA AS OF 07Z...WELL TO THE SOUTH OF
WHERE IT WAS SUPPOSED TO BE TRACKING. SO...THE HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED
TO IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL UPR MICHIGAN ALSO STAYED WELL TO THE SOUTH
CLOSER TO SFC WARM FRONT AND MORE CONCENTRATED SHRA/TSRA. LATEST
RADAR LOOP AND HRRR OUTPUT DO SUGGEST LGT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
CLIP FAR SCNTRL THROUGH 13-14Z AS SHORTWAVE OVER CNTRL WI SLIDES EAST
NORTHEAST. PRECIP AMOUNTS LESS THAN 0.05 INCH SO FAR AT KMNM.
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS TIL THE RAIN ENDS SHOULD CHECK IN LESS THAN 0.25
INCH.
TOUGH TO SEE WITH MID-HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD...BUT BASED ON VISUAL
OBSERVATION AT OUR OFFICE...LOW CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN WITH WEAK EAST-NORTHEAST
LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON FAR NORTH SIDE OF THE SFC LOW. MAKES SENSE AS THIS
AREA IS JUST TO WESTERN EDGE OF THICKER MID CLOUDS. RAP/NAM/LOCAL
WRF-ARW ALL POINT TO THESE LOW CLOUDS ONLY EXPANDING THROUGH
DAYBREAK...BEFORE GRADUALLY THINNING OUT BY LATE MORNING AS MIXING
INTO THE DRY AIRMASS SETTLING OVERHEAD TAKES A TOLL. ANY FOG THUS
FAR OVER LAND HAS BEEN PATCHY GROUND TYPE WITH VSBY DOWN BLO 1SM AT
TIMES. BASED ON AVAILABLE OBSERVATIONS AND WEB CAMS...FOG DOES NOT
SEEM TO BE WIDESPREAD. WILL NOT EMPHASIZE THE FOG BUT WILL KEEP
SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY LONGER FOR THE CNTRL THIS MORNING.
ONCE SKIES CLEAR LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...EXPECT A CHILLY
NIGHT INLAND OVER THE WEST AS DRY AIRMASS MOVES OVERHEAD /PWATS DOWN
BLO 0.4 INCH/ AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT BENEATH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS. LOWERED MIN TEMPS INTO THE UPR 30S AT THE TYPICAL
COOL SPOTS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 40S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM WL FOCUS ON POPS/POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HEAVY RA THAT WL ACCOMPANY A SHRTWV LIFTING NEWD INTO THE GREAT
LKS/SURGE IN PWAT ON SUN WITHIN A DEEP SW FLOW ALOFT TO THE E OF A
TROF DIGGING INTO THE NRN PLAINS. LOOKS LIKE TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WL
BE NOT FAR FM NORMAL BUT THEN TREND COOLER NEXT WEEK AS THE TROF
SHIFTS OVER THE UPR LKS.
SAT...HI PRES IS FCST TO BE OVER NE LK SUP ON SUN AS UPR RDG AXIS
SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE E. WITH DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND H85 TEMPS FCST
IN THE 11-13C RANGE...EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND MAX TEMPS
IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 AWAY FM THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF THE LKS.
GIVEN SE H925 FLOW...THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF LK MI WL BE MORE SGFNT.
SAT NGT...UPR FLOW OVER UPR MI IS FCST TO TURN TO THE SW FLOW BTWN
UPR RDG SHIFTING TO THE E AND UPR TROF MOVING FM THE ROCKIES INTO
THE NRN PLAINS. SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE NEAR
WI BY 12Z SUN. MODELS SHOW PWAT INCRSG TO ABOUT 1.5 INCHES BY 12Z
SUN AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE...SO EXPECT INCRSG CLDS WITH SOME
SHOWERS MOVING INTO AT LEAST THE WI BORDER COUNTIES BY SUNRISE.
DESPITE INCRSG PWAT...MODELS SHOW MARGINAL LAPSE RATES/LIMITED
INSTABILITY...SO WL NOT INCLUDE A MENTION OF TS.
SUN/SUN NGT...DEEP...ALBEIT RELATIVELY LGT SW FLOW IS FCST TO LIFT
PWAT AS HI AS 1.5-2 INCHES...ABOUT 175 TO 225 PCT OF NORMAL. WHILE
MODEL QPF VARIES GREATLY...LOOKS LIKE THE SE HALF OF THE CWA HAS THE
BEST CHC FOR THE HIER POPS/HEAVIER RA. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE PATTERN
BTWN UPR TROF TO THE W AND RDG TO THE E THAT WOULD FAVOR A MORE SW
VERSUS WSW FLOW ALOFT SHOWN BY THE DRIER 00Z GFS...PREFER THE WETTER
12Z ECMWF/00Z NAM FOR FCST SPECIFICS. HEAVY RA WL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SE HALF OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO THE FCST TRACK OF
THE SFC LO AND WHERE A SFC TROF MAY PERSIST FOR A PERIOD OF TIME AND
ENHANCE LLVL CNVGC AHEAD OF THE APRCHG SFC LO. DESPITE FCST MARGINAL
LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY WITH SSI FCST NO LOWER THAN ABOUT 1 TO -
1C...OPTED TO MAINTAIN FCST SCHC TS OVER MAINLY THE SE HALF OF THE
CWA GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE MOISTENING. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
SHRTWV/SFC LO ON SUN NGT...POPS WL DIMINISH W-E WITH ARRIVAL OF
DRIER AIR. SINCE THE MID LVL DRYING BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHRTWV IS
LIKELY TO BE MORE EMPHATIC THAN IN THE LLVLS IF COLD FROPA
ASSOCIATED WITH APRCHG OUT OF PHASE UPR TROF IS SLOWER...FOG MAY
BECOME A CONCERN ESPECIALLY IF AND WHERE SOME HEAVIER RA FALLS.
MON...PROGRESSIVE UPR TROF AXIS IS FCST TO SWING INTO THE UPR LKS...
WITH ACCOMPANYING COLD FROPA EXPECTED LATE SUN NGT/MON MRNG. WITH
THE MID LVL DNVA/DRYING BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHRTWV AND ARRIVAL OF
THIS FNT IN THE LATE NGT/MRNG WHEN DAYTIME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION
WL NOT BE A FACTOR...EXPECT NO MORE THAN SCHC POPS. THE APRCH OF HI
PRES/ARRIVAL OF DRY AIR WL ALLOW FOR MORE AFTN SUNSHINE.
EXTENDED...DRY HI PRES UNDER THE PROGRESSIVE UPR TROF WL BRING DRY
WX FOR AT LEAST TUE. THE LONGER RANGE GFS/ECMWF MODELS THEN HINT
SOME DISTURBANCES IN A MORE ZONAL FLOW MAY IMPACT THE UPR LKS ON
WED/THU. GIVEN THE RATHER UNPREDICTABLE NATURE OF THE UPR FLOW
IN THE LONG TERM THIS TIME OF YEAR...WL RELY ON MODEL CONSENSUS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
HIGH CLOUDS THINNED ENOUGH OVERNIGHT TO PROMOTE FOG AT KSAW...WITH
VSBY DOWN TO 1/4SM. BASED ON AREA WEBCAMS...APPEARS FOG IS NOT JUST
CONFINED TO AIRPORT...SO LINGERED FOG WITH VSBY IMPROVING TO MVFR
IN THE NEXT HOUR AND CIGS FOLLOWING THEREAFTER. COULD SEE MVFR
STRATUS STICK AROUND MUCH OF THE MORNING THOUGH DUE TO NE UPSLOPE
FLOW. EVEN THAT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY EARLY AFTN WITH DAYTIME MIXING.
AT KCMX AND KIWD...ANY FOG EARLY ON WILL BE SHALLOW AND PATCHY AND
HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE 12Z TAFS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT...THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE SOME PATCHY
GROUND FOG COULD FORM AGAIN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 845 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
UPDATE FOR FRIDAY AT 845AM. BASED OFF VISIBLE SATELLITE AND WEBCAMS
THIS MORNING...DECIDED TO ISSUE A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HAVE SET A 4PM END TIME FOR
NOW...BUT THERE WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE TWEAKS TO THE END TIME LATER
TODAY. WITH WEAK WINDS OVER THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS...THERE MAY BE
LITTLE MOVEMENT OR DISSIPATION OF THE FOG FOR SOME AREAS OF EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND HI
OVERWATER STABILITY TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...EXPECT WINDS
UNDER 20 KTS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THERE WILL BE
PERIODS OF FOG AS FAIRLY HUMID AIR FLOWS OVER THE CHILLY LAKE WATERS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THICKER/MORE WIDESPREAD FOG WILL BE ON SUN AND
SUN NIGHT...WHEN THE MOST HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED OVER THE UPPER LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ246>251-
265>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...KC/SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
753 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
AN ACTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION TO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL WAVER SOUTH AND NORTH OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK ALONG IT. THIS FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SO WE WILL HAVE NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR RAIN
OVER THE COMING DAYS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY. THERE
IS ALSO A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. THE
THREAT FOR TODAY IS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KALAMAZOO TO LANSING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
DESPITE AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS FOR ORGANIZED STORMS..
LACK OF INSTABILITY HAS BEEN A BIG LIMITING FACTOR AND CURRENT MU
CAPES ARE ONLY 100-300 J/KG. UPSTREAM CLOUD TOPS ON IR SATELLITE
HAVE BEEN ACCORDINGLY WARMING OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AND OVERALL
LIGHTNING TREND HAS BEEN DOWN. THUS THE RISK FOR ANY STRONG/SEVERE
TSTMS IS VERY LOW THROUGH MID MORNING.
HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN IS VERY MUCH ALIVE WITH 40-50 KT
SWLY LOW LEVEL JET POINTED AT THE AREA THROUGH 15Z COINCIDENT WITH
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE RELATED TO RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION UPPER LEVEL
JET DYNAMICS. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RATES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID
MORNING.
THE FOCUS THIS AFTERNOON IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO
RE FIRE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE SE CWFA. THERE IS ONLY A
RELATIVELY NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY AND LOW CHANCE FOR THIS TO
HAPPEN AS LATEST RUC SFC BASED CAPES ARE JUST RECOVERING ABOUT THE
TIME THE FRONT IS SLIPPING THROUGH. THE MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE JUST
SOUTH AND EAST OF JXN. OTHERWISE THE LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS DECREASING
POPS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CURRENT WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
MAIN FCST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE STRATUS AND
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE POTENTIAL WITH MOIST LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW
IMPACTING THE AREA. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE LOW CLOUDS TO
SCATTER OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN HIGH JUNE SUN ANGLE.
RENEWED CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
AS WARM FRONT BUCKLES BACK NORTH. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRONGER STORMS SUNDAY AS AFTERNOON CAPES ARE
PROGGED TO EXCEED 2000 J/KG OVER SRN LWR MI.
LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
WE ARE LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST. THE FCST IS
RATHER WET WITH MILD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD.
THE WET WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM
ON SUN NIGHT. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MEANDERING BACK AND FORTH WILL BE
ACROSS THE CWFA SUN NIGHT WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
THE FRONT. IT WILL TAKE UNTIL DURING THE DAY ON MON FOR THE WAVE TO
MOVE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW THE FRONT TO DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA.
IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE SEVERE WX THREAT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE CWFA
WITH THE FRONT MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA BY THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING.
WE DO SEE A LIKELY DRY PERIOD FOR THE DAY ON TUE. WE WILL SEE SHORT
WAVE RIDGING BUILD IN BY TUE MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE MON WAVE AND
AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN.
THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR MORE RAIN ON WED AND THU ACROSS THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS OF THE TIMING AND LOCATION ARE STILL A
BIT UNCERTAIN. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL FLATTEN OUT A BIT ACROSS
THE CONUS...VERSUS THE SW FLOW ALOFT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING THE PAST
FEW DAYS. THAT SAID...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MORE WAVES RIDE IN
ALONG THIS FLOW ALONG THE NEARLY STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP PCPN CHCS POSSIBLE FOR THE AREA
AND KEEP TEMPS FROM BECOMING TOO WARM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 753 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING RANGE FROM IFR AT MKG AND GRR TO VFR
AT JXN. LOWER CIGS IN THE MVFR TO IFR CATEGORY WILL SPREAD
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH TIME TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH WILL OCCASIONALLY/BRIEFLY REDUCE THE VSBYS. THE THUNDER
THREAT IS VERY LOW NOW... ALTHOUGH A FEW MAY FLARE UP AGAIN
AROUND JXN 15Z-19Z. WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AS STRATUS/FOG IMPACT THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE SHORT TERM WILL KEEP WAVES ON THE LOW SIDE AND
ALSO LIMIT THE FOG POTENTIAL IN THE NEARSHORE AREA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 606 PM EDT TUE JUN 11 2015
A SOAKING RAINFALL TOTALING AN INCH OR GREATER IS EXPECTED ACROSS
MOST OF LOWER MI... WITH 2 INCHES OR GREATER MOST LIKELY ACROSS
CENTRAL MI NORTHWARD. THUNDERSTORMS... PARTICULARLY IN CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN... WILL TEND TO INCREASE THE VARIABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION TOTALS... SO LOCATIONS THERE DO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
OVER 2 INCHES WHERE STORMS PERSIST. RAINFALL WILL BE SPREAD OUT
ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY... BUT THE GREATEST TIME FRAME
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN OUR CWA APPEARS TO BE FROM LATE EVENING
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
EXPECTED FLOOD IMPACTS WILL BE MAINLY FOCUSED ON SMALL STREAMS AND
PONDING OF WATER IN LOW SPOTS OF ROADWAYS. SIGNIFICANT FLASH
FLOODING DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY AT THIS TIME. ENSEMBLE QPF GUIDANCE
FOR OUR LARGER RIVER SYSTEMS SUGGESTS OUR GOING BASIN-AVERAGE
RAINFALL FORECAST WOULD KEEP MOST RIVERS WITHIN THEIR BANKS.
HOWEVER... WITH DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IN PLACE PARTIALLY FROM
THE REMNANTS OF BLANCA... EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION MAY LEAD TO THIS
SYSTEM OVER PERFORMING AGAINST OUR FORECAST. WE WOULD NEED BASIN-
AVERAGE RAINFALL OF GREATER THAN 2.5 INCHES IN CENTRAL MICHIGAN AND
2 INCHES IN MID-SOUTH MICHIGAN TO PUSH MORE THAN JUST A COUPLE GAUGE
SITES ABOVE BANKFULL. RIVERS WILL RUN HIGHER THAN NORMAL HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEK... WHEN ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION ARE
EXPECTED.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
$$
SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...CAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
746 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
1004MB SFC LOW IS OVER SE IOWA AS OF 07Z...WELL TO THE SOUTH OF
WHERE IT WAS SUPPOSED TO BE TRACKING. SO...THE HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED
TO IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL UPR MICHIGAN ALSO STAYED WELL TO THE SOUTH
CLOSER TO SFC WARM FRONT AND MORE CONCENTRATED SHRA/TSRA. LATEST
RADAR LOOP AND HRRR OUTPUT DO SUGGEST LGT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
CLIP FAR SCNTRL THROUGH 13-14Z AS SHORTWAVE OVER CNTRL WI SLIDES EAST
NORTHEAST. PRECIP AMOUNTS LESS THAN 0.05 INCH SO FAR AT KMNM.
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS TIL THE RAIN ENDS SHOULD CHECK IN LESS THAN 0.25
INCH.
TOUGH TO SEE WITH MID-HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD...BUT BASED ON VISUAL
OBSERVATION AT OUR OFFICE...LOW CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN WITH WEAK EAST-NORTHEAST
LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON FAR NORTH SIDE OF THE SFC LOW. MAKES SENSE AS THIS
AREA IS JUST TO WESTERN EDGE OF THICKER MID CLOUDS. RAP/NAM/LOCAL
WRF-ARW ALL POINT TO THESE LOW CLOUDS ONLY EXPANDING THROUGH
DAYBREAK...BEFORE GRADUALLY THINNING OUT BY LATE MORNING AS MIXING
INTO THE DRY AIRMASS SETTLING OVERHEAD TAKES A TOLL. ANY FOG THUS
FAR OVER LAND HAS BEEN PATCHY GROUND TYPE WITH VSBY DOWN BLO 1SM AT
TIMES. BASED ON AVAILABLE OBSERVATIONS AND WEB CAMS...FOG DOES NOT
SEEM TO BE WIDESPREAD. WILL NOT EMPHASIZE THE FOG BUT WILL KEEP
SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY LONGER FOR THE CNTRL THIS MORNING.
ONCE SKIES CLEAR LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...EXPECT A CHILLY
NIGHT INLAND OVER THE WEST AS DRY AIRMASS MOVES OVERHEAD /PWATS DOWN
BLO 0.4 INCH/ AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT BENEATH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS. LOWERED MIN TEMPS INTO THE UPR 30S AT THE TYPICAL
COOL SPOTS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 40S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM WL FOCUS ON POPS/POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HEAVY RA THAT WL ACCOMPANY A SHRTWV LIFTING NEWD INTO THE GREAT
LKS/SURGE IN PWAT ON SUN WITHIN A DEEP SW FLOW ALOFT TO THE E OF A
TROF DIGGING INTO THE NRN PLAINS. LOOKS LIKE TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WL
BE NOT FAR FM NORMAL BUT THEN TREND COOLER NEXT WEEK AS THE TROF
SHIFTS OVER THE UPR LKS.
SAT...HI PRES IS FCST TO BE OVER NE LK SUP ON SUN AS UPR RDG AXIS
SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE E. WITH DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND H85 TEMPS FCST
IN THE 11-13C RANGE...EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND MAX TEMPS
IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 AWAY FM THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF THE LKS.
GIVEN SE H925 FLOW...THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF LK MI WL BE MORE SGFNT.
SAT NGT...UPR FLOW OVER UPR MI IS FCST TO TURN TO THE SW FLOW BTWN
UPR RDG SHIFTING TO THE E AND UPR TROF MOVING FM THE ROCKIES INTO
THE NRN PLAINS. SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE NEAR
WI BY 12Z SUN. MODELS SHOW PWAT INCRSG TO ABOUT 1.5 INCHES BY 12Z
SUN AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE...SO EXPECT INCRSG CLDS WITH SOME
SHOWERS MOVING INTO AT LEAST THE WI BORDER COUNTIES BY SUNRISE.
DESPITE INCRSG PWAT...MODELS SHOW MARGINAL LAPSE RATES/LIMITED
INSTABILITY...SO WL NOT INCLUDE A MENTION OF TS.
SUN/SUN NGT...DEEP...ALBEIT RELATIVELY LGT SW FLOW IS FCST TO LIFT
PWAT AS HI AS 1.5-2 INCHES...ABOUT 175 TO 225 PCT OF NORMAL. WHILE
MODEL QPF VARIES GREATLY...LOOKS LIKE THE SE HALF OF THE CWA HAS THE
BEST CHC FOR THE HIER POPS/HEAVIER RA. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE PATTERN
BTWN UPR TROF TO THE W AND RDG TO THE E THAT WOULD FAVOR A MORE SW
VERSUS WSW FLOW ALOFT SHOWN BY THE DRIER 00Z GFS...PREFER THE WETTER
12Z ECMWF/00Z NAM FOR FCST SPECIFICS. HEAVY RA WL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SE HALF OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO THE FCST TRACK OF
THE SFC LO AND WHERE A SFC TROF MAY PERSIST FOR A PERIOD OF TIME AND
ENHANCE LLVL CNVGC AHEAD OF THE APRCHG SFC LO. DESPITE FCST MARGINAL
LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY WITH SSI FCST NO LOWER THAN ABOUT 1 TO -
1C...OPTED TO MAINTAIN FCST SCHC TS OVER MAINLY THE SE HALF OF THE
CWA GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE MOISTENING. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
SHRTWV/SFC LO ON SUN NGT...POPS WL DIMINISH W-E WITH ARRIVAL OF
DRIER AIR. SINCE THE MID LVL DRYING BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHRTWV IS
LIKELY TO BE MORE EMPHATIC THAN IN THE LLVLS IF COLD FROPA
ASSOCIATED WITH APRCHG OUT OF PHASE UPR TROF IS SLOWER...FOG MAY
BECOME A CONCERN ESPECIALLY IF AND WHERE SOME HEAVIER RA FALLS.
MON...PROGRESSIVE UPR TROF AXIS IS FCST TO SWING INTO THE UPR LKS...
WITH ACCOMPANYING COLD FROPA EXPECTED LATE SUN NGT/MON MRNG. WITH
THE MID LVL DNVA/DRYING BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHRTWV AND ARRIVAL OF
THIS FNT IN THE LATE NGT/MRNG WHEN DAYTIME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION
WL NOT BE A FACTOR...EXPECT NO MORE THAN SCHC POPS. THE APRCH OF HI
PRES/ARRIVAL OF DRY AIR WL ALLOW FOR MORE AFTN SUNSHINE.
EXTENDED...DRY HI PRES UNDER THE PROGRESSIVE UPR TROF WL BRING DRY
WX FOR AT LEAST TUE. THE LONGER RANGE GFS/ECMWF MODELS THEN HINT
SOME DISTURBANCES IN A MORE ZONAL FLOW MAY IMPACT THE UPR LKS ON
WED/THU. GIVEN THE RATHER UNPREDICTABLE NATURE OF THE UPR FLOW
IN THE LONG TERM THIS TIME OF YEAR...WL RELY ON MODEL CONSENSUS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
HIGH CLOUDS THINNED ENOUGH OVERNIGHT TO PROMOTE FOG AT KSAW...WITH
VSBY DOWN TO 1/4SM. BASED ON AREA WEBCAMS...APPEARS FOG IS NOT JUST
CONFINED TO AIRPORT...SO LINGERED FOG WITH VSBY IMPROVING TO MVFR
IN THE NEXT HOUR AND CIGS FOLLOWING THEREAFTER. COULD SEE MVFR
STRATUS STICK AROUND MUCH OF THE MORNING THOUGH DUE TO NE UPSLOPE
FLOW. EVEN THAT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY EARLY AFTN WITH DAYTIME MIXING.
AT KCMX AND KIWD...ANY FOG EARLY ON WILL BE SHALLOW AND PATCHY AND
HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE 12Z TAFS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT...THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE SOME PATCHY
GROUND FOG COULD FORM AGAIN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND HI OVERWATER STABILITY
TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF FOG AS
RELATIVELY HUMID AIR FLOWS OVER THE CHILLY LAKE WATERS. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THICKER/MORE WIDESPREAD FOG WILL BE ON SUN AND SUN
NIGHT...WHEN THE MOST HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED OVER THE UPPER LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
350 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
1004MB SFC LOW IS OVER SE IOWA AS OF 07Z...WELL TO THE SOUTH OF
WHERE IT WAS SUPPOSED TO BE TRACKING. SO...THE HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED
TO IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL UPR MICHIGAN ALSO STAYED WELL TO THE SOUTH
CLOSER TO SFC WARM FRONT AND MORE CONCENTRATED SHRA/TSRA. LATEST
RADAR LOOP AND HRRR OUTPUT DO SUGGEST LGT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
CLIP FAR SCNTRL THROUGH 13-14Z AS SHORTWAVE OVER CNTRL WI SLIDES EAST
NORTHEAST. PRECIP AMOUNTS LESS THAN 0.05 INCH SO FAR AT KMNM.
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS TIL THE RAIN ENDS SHOULD CHECK IN LESS THAN 0.25
INCH.
TOUGH TO SEE WITH MID-HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD...BUT BASED ON VISUAL
OBSERVATION AT OUR OFFICE...LOW CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN WITH WEAK EAST-NORTHEAST
LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON FAR NORTH SIDE OF THE SFC LOW. MAKES SENSE AS THIS
AREA IS JUST TO WESTERN EDGE OF THICKER MID CLOUDS. RAP/NAM/LOCAL
WRF-ARW ALL POINT TO THESE LOW CLOUDS ONLY EXPANDING THROUGH
DAYBREAK...BEFORE GRADUALLY THINNING OUT BY LATE MORNING AS MIXING
INTO THE DRY AIRMASS SETTLING OVERHEAD TAKES A TOLL. ANY FOG THUS
FAR OVER LAND HAS BEEN PATCHY GROUND TYPE WITH VSBY DOWN BLO 1SM AT
TIMES. BASED ON AVAILABLE OBSERVATIONS AND WEB CAMS...FOG DOES NOT
SEEM TO BE WIDESPREAD. WILL NOT EMPHASIZE THE FOG BUT WILL KEEP
SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY LONGER FOR THE CNTRL THIS MORNING.
ONCE SKIES CLEAR LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...EXPECT A CHILLY
NIGHT INLAND OVER THE WEST AS DRY AIRMASS MOVES OVERHEAD /PWATS DOWN
BLO 0.4 INCH/ AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT BENEATH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS. LOWERED MIN TEMPS INTO THE UPR 30S AT THE TYPICAL
COOL SPOTS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 40S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM WL FOCUS ON POPS/POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HEAVY RA THAT WL ACCOMPANY A SHRTWV LIFTING NEWD INTO THE GREAT
LKS/SURGE IN PWAT ON SUN WITHIN A DEEP SW FLOW ALOFT TO THE E OF A
TROF DIGGING INTO THE NRN PLAINS. LOOKS LIKE TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WL
BE NOT FAR FM NORMAL BUT THEN TREND COOLER NEXT WEEK AS THE TROF
SHIFTS OVER THE UPR LKS.
SAT...HI PRES IS FCST TO BE OVER NE LK SUP ON SUN AS UPR RDG AXIS
SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE E. WITH DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND H85 TEMPS FCST
IN THE 11-13C RANGE...EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND MAX TEMPS
IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 AWAY FM THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF THE LKS.
GIVEN SE H925 FLOW...THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF LK MI WL BE MORE SGFNT.
SAT NGT...UPR FLOW OVER UPR MI IS FCST TO TURN TO THE SW FLOW BTWN
UPR RDG SHIFTING TO THE E AND UPR TROF MOVING FM THE ROCKIES INTO
THE NRN PLAINS. SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE NEAR
WI BY 12Z SUN. MODELS SHOW PWAT INCRSG TO ABOUT 1.5 INCHES BY 12Z
SUN AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE...SO EXPECT INCRSG CLDS WITH SOME
SHOWERS MOVING INTO AT LEAST THE WI BORDER COUNTIES BY SUNRISE.
DESPITE INCRSG PWAT...MODELS SHOW MARGINAL LAPSE RATES/LIMITED
INSTABILITY...SO WL NOT INCLUDE A MENTION OF TS.
SUN/SUN NGT...DEEP...ALBEIT RELATIVELY LGT SW FLOW IS FCST TO LIFT
PWAT AS HI AS 1.5-2 INCHES...ABOUT 175 TO 225 PCT OF NORMAL. WHILE
MODEL QPF VARIES GREATLY...LOOKS LIKE THE SE HALF OF THE CWA HAS THE
BEST CHC FOR THE HIER POPS/HEAVIER RA. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE PATTERN
BTWN UPR TROF TO THE W AND RDG TO THE E THAT WOULD FAVOR A MORE SW
VERSUS WSW FLOW ALOFT SHOWN BY THE DRIER 00Z GFS...PREFER THE WETTER
12Z ECMWF/00Z NAM FOR FCST SPECIFICS. HEAVY RA WL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SE HALF OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO THE FCST TRACK OF
THE SFC LO AND WHERE A SFC TROF MAY PERSIST FOR A PERIOD OF TIME AND
ENHANCE LLVL CNVGC AHEAD OF THE APRCHG SFC LO. DESPITE FCST MARGINAL
LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY WITH SSI FCST NO LOWER THAN ABOUT 1 TO -
1C...OPTED TO MAINTAIN FCST SCHC TS OVER MAINLY THE SE HALF OF THE
CWA GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE MOISTENING. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
SHRTWV/SFC LO ON SUN NGT...POPS WL DIMINISH W-E WITH ARRIVAL OF
DRIER AIR. SINCE THE MID LVL DRYING BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHRTWV IS
LIKELY TO BE MORE EMPHATIC THAN IN THE LLVLS IF COLD FROPA
ASSOCIATED WITH APRCHG OUT OF PHASE UPR TROF IS SLOWER...FOG MAY
BECOME A CONCERN ESPECIALLY IF AND WHERE SOME HEAVIER RA FALLS.
MON...PROGRESSIVE UPR TROF AXIS IS FCST TO SWING INTO THE UPR LKS...
WITH ACCOMPANYING COLD FROPA EXPECTED LATE SUN NGT/MON MRNG. WITH
THE MID LVL DNVA/DRYING BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHRTWV AND ARRIVAL OF
THIS FNT IN THE LATE NGT/MRNG WHEN DAYTIME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION
WL NOT BE A FACTOR...EXPECT NO MORE THAN SCHC POPS. THE APRCH OF HI
PRES/ARRIVAL OF DRY AIR WL ALLOW FOR MORE AFTN SUNSHINE.
EXTENDED...DRY HI PRES UNDER THE PROGRESSIVE UPR TROF WL BRING DRY
WX FOR AT LEAST TUE. THE LONGER RANGE GFS/ECMWF MODELS THEN HINT
SOME DISTURBANCES IN A MORE ZONAL FLOW MAY IMPACT THE UPR LKS ON
WED/THU. GIVEN THE RATHER UNPREDICTABLE NATURE OF THE UPR FLOW
IN THE LONG TERM THIS TIME OF YEAR...WL RELY ON MODEL CONSENSUS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
FOG CHANCES APPEAR TO HAVE DWINDLED GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS OVERHEAD
AND LACK OF RAIN ANYWHERE NEAR THE TAF SITES...SO REMOVED FOG FROM
THE FORECASTS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND HI OVERWATER STABILITY
TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF FOG AS
RELATIVELY HUMID AIR FLOWS OVER THE CHILLY LAKE WATERS. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THICKER/MORE WIDESPREAD FOG WILL BE ON SUN AND SUN
NIGHT...WHEN THE MOST HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED OVER THE UPPER LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
AN ACTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION TO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL WAVER SOUTH AND NORTH OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK ALONG IT. THIS FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SO WE WILL HAVE NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR RAIN
OVER THE COMING DAYS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY. THERE
IS ALSO CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. THE
THREAT FOR TODAY IS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KALAMAZOO TO LANSING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
DESPITE AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS FOR ORGANIZED STORMS..
LACK OF INSTABILITY HAS BEEN A BIG LIMITING FACTOR AND CURRENT MU
CAPES ARE ONLY 100-300 J/KG. UPSTREAM CLOUD TOPS ON IR SATELLITE
HAVE BEEN ACCORDINGLY WARMING OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AND OVERALL
LIGHTNING TREND HAS BEEN DOWN. THUS THE RISK FOR ANY STRONG/SEVERE
TSTMS IS VERY LOW THROUGH MID MORNING.
HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN IS VERY MUCH ALIVE WITH 40-50 KT
SWLY LOW LEVEL JET POINTED AT THE AREA THROUGH 15Z COINCIDENT WITH
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE RELATED TO RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION UPPER LEVEL
JET DYNAMICS. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RATES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID
MORNING.
THE FOCUS THIS AFTERNOON IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO
RE FIRE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE SE CWFA. THERE IS ONLY A
RELATIVELY NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY AND LOW CHANCE FOR THIS TO
HAPPEN AS LATEST RUC SFC BASED CAPES ARE JUST RECOVERING ABOUT THE
TIME THE FRONT IS SLIPPING THROUGH. THE MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE JUST
SOUTH AND EAST OF JXN. OTHERWISE THE LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS DECREASING
POPS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CURRENT WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
MAIN FCST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE STRATUS AND
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE POTENTIAL WITH MOIST LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW
IMPACTING THE AREA. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE LOW CLOUDS TO
SCATTER OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN HIGH JUNE SUN ANGLE.
RENEWED CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
AS WARM FRONT BUCKLES BACK NORTH. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRONGER STORMS SUNDAY AS AFTERNOON CAPES ARE
PROGGED TO EXCEED 2000 J/KG OVER SRN LWR MI
LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI
JUN 12 2015
WE ARE LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST. THE FCST IS
RATHER WET WITH MILD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD.
THE WET WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM
ON SUN NIGHT. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MEANDERING BACK AND FORTH WILL BE
ACROSS THE CWFA SUN NIGHT WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
THE FRONT. IT WILL TAKE UNTIL DURING THE DAY ON MON FOR THE WAVE TO
MOVE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW THE FRONT TO DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA.
IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE SEVERE WX THREAT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE CWFA
WITH THE FRONT MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA BY THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING.
WE DO SEE A LIKELY DRY PERIOD FOR THE DAY ON TUE. WE WILL SEE SHORT
WAVE RIDGING BUILD IN BY TUE MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE MON WAVE AND
AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN.
THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR MORE RAIN ON WED AND THU ACROSS THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS OF THE TIMING AND LOCATION ARE STILL A
BIT UNCERTAIN. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL FLATTEN OUT A BIT ACROSS
THE CONUS...VERSUS THE SW FLOW ALOFT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING THE PAST
FEW DAYS. THAT SAID...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MORE WAVES RIDE IN
ALONG THIS FLOW ALONG THE NEARLY STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP PCPN CHCS POSSIBLE FOR THE AREA
AND KEEP TEMPS FROM BECOMING TOO WARM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 152 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
OUR MAIN FOCUS IN THE 06Z FCSTS IS THE RAIN/CONVECTION THAT IS
STARTING TO MOVE IN ACROSS SOME OF THE TERMINALS. WE EXPECT THAT
THIS RAINFALL WILL SPREAD IN OVER THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS. THUNDER IS
NOT WIDESPREAD...SO WE HAVE OPTED FOR A VCTS/TEMPO GROUP TO COVER
THE THUNDER THREAT. THE NRN TERMINALS WILL TEND TO SEE IFR CIGS
MOVE IN DURING THIS TIME...WHILE SRN TERMINALS WILL LIKELY ONLY
SEE POCKETS OF IFR WITH HEAVIER BURSTS OF PCPN.
THE MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN WILL TEND TO DIMINISH TOWARD 16-18Z FRI
AFTERNOON. AN ADDITIONAL LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL
DEVELOP AFTER 18Z TOWARD THE KJXN AREA BEFORE MOVING OUT BY 19-20Z
FRI. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE AND SPOTTY IN NATURE.
LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HOLD IN ACROSS MOST AREAS...WITH THE SRN
SITES SEEING THE IFR CIGS MOVING IN THERE.
A SHOWER WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE THE
MAIN WAVE/FRONT COMES THROUGH. CIGS MAY TRY TO LIFT INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY AT THAT TIME...HOWEVER THIS IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE SHORT TERM WILL KEEP WAVES ON THE LOW SIDE AND
ALSO LIMIT THE FOG POTENTIAL IN THE NEARSHORE AREA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 606 PM EDT TUE JUN 11 2015
A SOAKING RAINFALL TOTALING AN INCH OR GREATER IS EXPECTED ACROSS
MOST OF LOWER MI... WITH 2 INCHES OR GREATER MOST LIKELY ACROSS
CENTRAL MI NORTHWARD. THUNDERSTORMS... PARTICULARLY IN CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN... WILL TEND TO INCREASE THE VARIABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION TOTALS... SO LOCATIONS THERE DO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
OVER 2 INCHES WHERE STORMS PERSIST. RAINFALL WILL BE SPREAD OUT
ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY... BUT THE GREATEST TIME FRAME
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN OUR CWA APPEARS TO BE FROM LATE EVENING
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
EXPECTED FLOOD IMPACTS WILL BE MAINLY FOCUSED ON SMALL STREAMS AND
PONDING OF WATER IN LOW SPOTS OF ROADWAYS. SIGNIFICANT FLASH
FLOODING DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY AT THIS TIME. ENSEMBLE QPF GUIDANCE
FOR OUR LARGER RIVER SYSTEMS SUGGESTS OUR GOING BASIN-AVERAGE
RAINFALL FORECAST WOULD KEEP MOST RIVERS WITHIN THEIR BANKS.
HOWEVER... WITH DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IN PLACE PARTIALLY FROM
THE REMNANTS OF BLANCA... EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION MAY LEAD TO THIS
SYSTEM OVER PERFORMING AGAINST OUR FORECAST. WE WOULD NEED BASIN-
AVERAGE RAINFALL OF GREATER THAN 2.5 INCHES IN CENTRAL MICHIGAN AND
2 INCHES IN MID-SOUTH MICHIGAN TO PUSH MORE THAN JUST A COUPLE GAUGE
SITES ABOVE BANKFULL. RIVERS WILL RUN HIGHER THAN NORMAL HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEK... WHEN ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION ARE
EXPECTED.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...MEADE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
352 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015
SFC HIGH THAT WAS CENTERED ACROSS NE MN THIS AFTN HAS SCOURED OUT
THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS MOST OF MN...WITH THE EXCEPTION
ALONG THE IOWA BORDER WHERE LOW CLDS HAVE HELD THRU THE DAY.
REGIONAL RADAR AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A DISTURBANCE
MOVING N/NE ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS...AND INTO SE NEBRASKA WHICH WILL
AFFECT THE SOUTHEASTERN 1/4 OF MPX CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND THRU
SATURDAY MORNING. INITIALLY...THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL
MOISTEN UP ONCE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THERE MAYBE
A PERIOD OF VIRGA AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES NE INTO FAR SC/SE MN
AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT IT SHOULD EVENTUALLY MOISTEN UP. MOST OF THE
CAMS HI-RES REFLECTIVITY SIMS PLACE A BAND OF -SHRA DEVELOPING
ACROSS IOWA THIS EVENING...AND MOVING IT INTO A FAIRLY BROAD BUT
CONCENTRATED AREA FROM NEAR ALBERT LEA...NORTHEAST TOWARD RED WIND
AND EAU CLAIRE BY MID/LATE SATURDAY MORNING. BASED ON SEVERAL OF THE
CAMS SOLUTIONS AND THE LATEST RAP HAVING A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
DISTURBANCE ACROSS KANSAS...WILL INCREASE POPS IN MPX FAR SE CWA BY
12Z...AND MOVING IT INTO WC WI BY MID/LATE MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BE FAIRLY FAST...SO MOST OF THE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE OUT OF WC WI BY 3 PM. TEMPS WILL REFLECT THE HIGHER PROBABILITY
OF CLDS/SHRA IN WC WI WHERE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S.
ELSEWHERE...MID TO UPPER 70S WILL BE LIKELY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD TWO AREAS OF PRECIP WILL BE SPLITTING THE
BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FIRST WILL BE AND AREA OF SOUTHWEST
FLOW WITH EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMA AND CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN IA
AND WESTERN WI. THE SECOND IS A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION. THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS COLD FRONT IS WEAK...SO NOT
ANTICIPATING MUCH PRECIPITATION...AND HAVE LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY.
GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF CENTRAL MN WAS
DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LOOKING AHEAD...THE SPLIT FLOW THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
CONUS FOR MOST OF THE EARLY SUMMER LOOKS TO BECOME MORE PHASED AS
THE SUBTROPICAL JET SHIFTS NORTHWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW HEAT TO BUILD
OVER THE US...AND BRING THE STORM TRACK OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS
PATTERN WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AND IN TURN
MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL HEADING INTO THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.
FOR NOW NOT PINNING ANY RISK THRESHOLD OVER A PARTICULAR AREA FOR A
PARTICULAR TIME PERIOD...BUT JUST SPEAKING TO THE FACT THAT EITHER
INSTABILITY...OR SHEAR HAS BEEN LACKING FOR MOST OF THIS QUIET
SEVERE WEATHER SEASON. CONTINUED WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE SINCE THERE
WAS NOT A FORECAST PERIOD THAT PARTICULARLY STOOD OUT AS
UNUSUAL...AND BLENDED GUIDANCE PERFORMS BEST UNDER THESE REGIMES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015
AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER IS THE MAIN AVIATION
CONCERNS AFT 6Z TONIGHT AS MEAN LAYER FLOW BLW 5K BECOMES SE/S.
INITIALLY...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE VERY DRY SO VFR CONDS
WILL CONTINUE THRU 6Z WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. AFT 6Z AS WINDS SHIFT
TO THE SE...CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE MVFR
CIGS AT KRWF BY 9Z...AND IN KEAU BY 12Z. -SHRA WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING FOR MAINLY KEAU.
KMSP...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDS THRU 6-12Z...WITH CONFIDENCE
INCREASING THAT MVFR CIGS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD S/SE OF THE
AIRPORT SATURDAY MORNING ALONG WITH -SHRA. WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR
CIGS DURING THIS TAF PERIOD...WITH VCSH AFT 18Z SATURDAY. WINDS
WILL HOLD FROM THE EAST THIS AFTN...THEN MORE SE TONIGHT.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WINDS E/ENE 5-10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS NNW 10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NE 5 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...JLT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
448 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015
.LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO IS
HELPING TO CHANNEL A DEEP MOIST AIRMASS (PRECIPITABLE WATER ~ TWO
INCHES) NORTHWARD INTO THE ARKLAMISS REGION. WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND SUBSTANTIAL LOW/MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO
ORGANIZE SHOWERS/TSTMS ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE HAS BEEN CONSIDERABLE TODAY. POOR LAPSE RATES
HAVE KEPT THE ACTIVITY MOSTLY BELOW STRONG/SEVERE LIMITS...BUT AT
LEAST ONE STORM IN RICHLAND PARISH LIKELY BECAME SEVERE AS A RESULT
OF MERGING STORMS. OTHERWISE...STORMS THAT ORIENT ALONG WEST TO EAST
BOUNDARIES HAVE BEEN FAVORABLE FOR 30 TO 40 MPH WIND GUSTS AND THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE AS WE GO INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. PER LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE...CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH
QUICKLY WITH SUNSET.
FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT GREATER
INSTABILITY/MOISTURE TO BECOME FIXED OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
ARKLAMISS AS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE INTENSIFIES AND EXPANDS
WESTWARD INTO EASTERN MS. LAPSE RATES WILL STILL BE RATHER
POOR AND NON-SUPPORTIVE OF MUCH SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL...BUT SIMILAR
LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL SUPPORT
STORM ORGANIZATION ALONG BOUNDARIES RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE
RAINFALL COVERAGE...MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR. EXPECT
THE ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH QUICKLY SATURDAY EVENING. /EC/
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AS WE GO INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS
WILL ALLOW INFLOW OF GULF MOISTURE OVER MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...WHERE PWATS WILL MAX OUT TO AROUND 2.30 INCHES THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER MODELS TRY TO SHOW THAT WE MAY GET CUT OFF HEAVY
RAINFALL WISE FROM THE COASTAL AREAS. STILL WILL BE LOOKING AT SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY EFFICIENT RAIN POTENTIAL FROM SLOW MOVING STORMS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT UPPER RIDGING FROM THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL
BRING IN DRIER AIR FROM THE EAST...WHICH WILL PUSH THE HIGHER PWATS
WEST OF THE REGION UNTIL THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE WHEN A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. MODELS HAVE SOME TIMING
AND DEPTH ISSUES WITH THE SHORT WAVE COMING FROM THE WEST. THE
MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE SOME CHANCES OF MOSTLY DIURNAL CONVECTION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL SHOWS SOME UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY
COMING FROM THE PLAINS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WHICH MAY BRING
A FEW STRONG STORMS...BUT THATS TOO FAR OUT FOR ANY HWO POTENTIAL AT
THIS TIME. OTHERWISE EXPECT WARM DAYS AND MUGGY NIGHTS WITH SEASONAL
HIGHS AND LOWS. ALSO UPPED HIGHS IN THE EAST AROUND 1 DEGREE FOR NEXT
WEEK TO COMPENSATE FOR THE BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST US./17/
&&
.AVIATION...WITH CLOUDS AND CONVECTION OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...A MIX OF VFR TO IFR FLIGHT STATUSES ARE BEING OBSERVED.
UNTIL CONVECTION DISSIPATES LATER THIS EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING
BEGINS TO WANE...SUCH VARYING FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
OBSERVED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
SOME STORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING COULD PRODUCE SOME WIND GUSTS
UPWARDS OF 25-30 KNOTS. OVERALL THOUGH...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE TO AROUND 5 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH HEADING INTO TONIGHT. A MIX
OF VFR/MVFR CATEGORIES WILL SEEN OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
MORNING DUE TO VARYING CEILING HEIGHTS. /19/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 71 87 73 88 / 40 52 20 41
MERIDIAN 69 89 71 89 / 20 43 16 28
VICKSBURG 72 88 73 88 / 54 52 24 59
HATTIESBURG 72 88 73 89 / 20 52 26 45
NATCHEZ 73 86 72 87 / 44 61 26 60
GREENVILLE 73 88 72 88 / 45 48 28 54
GREENWOOD 72 88 72 89 / 44 44 25 36
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
EC/17/19/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
1059 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015
.UPDATE...
THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
NECESSARY TO POPS/TEMPS. CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING EARLY OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL MS AS THE PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED COLD CORE LOW INTERACTS WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS (PRECIPITABLE WATER
APPROACHING TWO INCHES). LAPSE RATES ARE ON THE POOR SIDE (VERTICAL
TOTALS ~24) BUT DECENT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AROUND 20KTS IS
SUPPORTING SOME STORM ORGANIZATION ALONG BOUNDARIES. A FEW STRONG
WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WHERE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
ORIENT IN MORE WEST TO EAST FASHION. HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR ANY
SEVERE ACTIVITY LOOKS TOO LOW TO HIGHLIGHT IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER
PRODUCTS WITH MICROBURST COMPOSITE PARAMETERS NOT EXPECTED TO GET
GREATER THAN 2 OR 3. /EC/
&&
.AVIATION...A MIX OF VFR TO IFR FLIGHT STATUSES ARE BEING OBSERVED
THIS MORNING AS A RESULT OF LOW STRATUS THAT`S ENCOMPASSING PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND EAST MISSISSIPPI. THIS LOW STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY
BREAK UP THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH MAINLY VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS
EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOUTH TO NORTH MOVING
CONVECTION WILL AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. CONDITIONS AT SITES`S WHERE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
WILL SEE FLIGHT CATEGORIES DEGRADED TO MVFR/IFR STATUS FOR A
PERIOD...DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND HEAVY RAIN REDUCING VISIBILITIES.
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL LESSEN AS WE MOVE INTO THE EVENING HOURS
AND DAYTIME HEATING WANES. WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 10
KNOTS...AND WILL ALSO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO AROUND 5 KNOTS FROM THE
SOUTH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. /19/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING
CONTINUING TO SHOW WIDESPREAD PLUME OF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AS
WELL AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE
PERSISTENT COLD CORE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF. IMAGERY IS NOT SHOWING
MUCH TO INDICATE THE WAVE OTHER THAN AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION ALONG
THE MS COAST...BUT THE RAP DATA IS SHOWING AN AXIS OF 2-2.5 PV UNITS
IN THAT AREA.
EXPECTING ANOTHER DAY OF CONVECTION...SOMEWHAT MORE PREVALENT TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT SLUG OF HIGH PW AIR WILL
ROTATE NW AROUND THE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING MAX HEATING. WHEN LOOKING AT THE LATEST
SATELLITE BLENDED TOTAL PW PRODUCT THIS SEEMS LOGICAL AS IT IS
SHOWING 2+ INCH PW AIR JUST OFFSHORE OF LA/MS/AL/FL...INLINE TO MOVE
ASHORE THIS MORNING.
WHILE THIS TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFAL...IT WILL NOT PORTEND MUCH
MICROBURST POTENTIAL. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS...WEAK
FLOW ALOFT HAS LED TO SLOW STORM MOVEMENTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL/FLOODING. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ALONG WITH INCREASED EFFICIENCY OF RAINFALL PRODUCTION.
BY SATURDAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF THE COUNTRY WILL BEGIN TO BE FELT OVER OUR EASTERN SECTIONS. THIS
WILL SERVE TO LESSEN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE A BIT IN THESE AREAS AND
ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER AFTERNOON TEMPS./26/
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AS WE GO INTO THE LATER PART
OF THE WEEKEND THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA.
THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK INFLOW OF GULF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION...WHERE
PWATS WILL MAX OUT TO AROUND 2.30 INCHES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER MODELS TRY TO SHOW THAT WE MAY GET CUT OFF HEAVY RAINFALL
WISE FROM THE COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER STILL WILL BE LOOKING AT SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY EFFICIENT RAIN POTENTIAL FROM SLOW MOVING STORMS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT UPPER RIDGING FROM THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL
BRING IN DRYER AIR FROM THE EAST...WHICH WILL PUSH THE HIGHER PWATS
WEST OF THE REGION UNTIL THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE WHEN A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. MODELS HAVE SOME TIMING
AND DEPTH ISSUES WITH THE SHORT WAVE COMING FROM THE WEST. THE
MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE SOME CHANCES OF MOSTLY DIURNAL CONVECTION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL SHOWS SOME UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY
COMING FROM THE PLAINS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WHICH MAY BRING
A FEW STRONG STORMS...BUT THATS TOO FAR OUT FOR ANY HWO POTENTIAL AT
THIS TIME. OTHERWISE EXPECT WARM DAYS AND MUGGY NIGHTS WITH SEASONAL
HIGHS AND LOWS. ALSO UPPED HIGHS IN THE EAST AROUND 1 DEGREE FOR
NEXT WEEK TO COMPENSATE FOR THE BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST
US./17/
AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS BY 15Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL...HOWEVER...BE ON
THE INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND WILL BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS
TO MVFR/IFR WHEN THEY PASS THROUGH ANY TAF SITES. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...MVFR TO IFR
CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE DEVELOP AT MOST TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT
RECEIVE RAINFALL TODAY./26/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 87 71 88 72 / 63 30 52 23
MERIDIAN 87 71 88 71 / 63 20 48 18
VICKSBURG 89 72 89 73 / 61 28 50 25
HATTIESBURG 86 73 87 72 / 70 21 57 25
NATCHEZ 87 72 87 72 / 61 31 55 27
GREENVILLE 91 73 90 73 / 51 26 50 36
GREENWOOD 90 72 89 73 / 53 26 47 23
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
JAN/JAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
341 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING
CONTINUING TO SHOW WIDESPREAD PLUME OF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AS
WELL AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE
PERSISTENT COLD CORE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF. IMAGERY IS NOT SHOWING
MUCH TO INDICATE THE WAVE OTHER THAN AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION ALONG
THE MS COAST...BUT THE RAP DATA IS SHOWING AN AXIS OF 2-2.5 PV UNITS
IN THAT AREA.
EXPECTING ANOTHER DAY OF CONVECTION...SOMEWHAT MORE PREVALENT TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT SLUG OF HIGH PW AIR WILL
ROTATE NW AROUND THE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING MAX HEATING. WHEN LOOKING AT THE LATEST
SATELLITE BLENDED TOTAL PW PRODUCT THIS SEEMS LOGICAL AS IT IS
SHOWING 2+ INCH PW AIR JUST OFFSHORE OF LA/MS/AL/FL...INLINE TO MOVE
ASHORE THIS MORNING.
WHILE THIS TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFAL...IT WILL NOT PORTEND MUCH
MICROBURST POTENTIAL. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS...WEAK
FLOW ALOFT HAS LED TO SLOW STORM MOVEMENTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL/FLOODING. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ALONG WITH INCREASED EFFICIENCY OF RAINFALL PRODUCTION.
BY SATURDAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF THE COUNTRY WILL BEGIN TO BE FELT OVER OUR EASTERN SECTIONS. THIS
WILL SERVE TO LESSEN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE A BIT IN THESE AREAS AND
ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER AFTERNOON TEMPS./26/
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AS WE GO INTO THE LATER PART
OF THE WEEKEND THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA.
THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK INFLOW OF GULF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION...WHERE
PWATS WILL MAX OUT TO AROUND 2.30 INCHES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER MODELS TRY TO SHOW THAT WE MAY GET CUT OFF HEAVY RAINFALL
WISE FROM THE COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER STILL WILL BE LOOKING AT SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY EFFICIENT RAIN POTENTIAL FROM SLOW MOVING STORMS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT UPPER RIDGING FROM THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL
BRING IN DRYER AIR FROM THE EAST...WHICH WILL PUSH THE HIGHER PWATS
WEST OF THE REGION UNTIL THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE WHEN A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. MODELS HAVE SOME TIMING
AND DEPTH ISSUES WITH THE SHORT WAVE COMING FROM THE WEST. THE
MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE SOME CHANCES OF MOSTLY DIURNAL CONVECTION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL SHOWS SOME UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY
COMING FROM THE PLAINS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WHICH MAY BRING
A FEW STRONG STORMS...BUT THATS TOO FAR OUT FOR ANY HWO POTENTIAL AT
THIS TIME. OTHERWISE EXPECT WARM DAYS AND MUGGY NIGHTS WITH SEASONAL
HIGHS AND LOWS. ALSO UPPED HIGHS IN THE EAST AROUND 1 DEGREE FOR
NEXT WEEK TO COMPENSATE FOR THE BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST
US./17/
&&
.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS BY 15Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL...HOWEVER...BE ON
THE INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND WILL BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS
TO MVFR/IFR WHEN THEY PASS THROUGH ANY TAF SITES. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...MVFR TO IFR
CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE DEVELOP AT MOST TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT
RECEIVE RAINFALL TODAY./26/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 86 71 88 72 / 63 30 52 23
MERIDIAN 85 71 88 71 / 63 20 48 18
VICKSBURG 88 72 89 73 / 61 28 50 25
HATTIESBURG 85 73 87 72 / 63 21 57 25
NATCHEZ 85 72 87 72 / 63 31 55 27
GREENVILLE 91 73 90 73 / 51 26 50 36
GREENWOOD 88 72 89 73 / 53 26 47 23
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
26/17/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1001 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2015
.UPDATE...
Issued at 955 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
Have lowered overnight PoPs owing to a dearth of returns on radar and
no meaningful upstream upper level impulse. No boundary around either to
focus later convective development. However, won`t take much to
generate widely scattered showers. Maybe a few claps of thunder but
nothing meaningful. Have also lowered precipitation amounts
overnight. No heavy rains expected overnight.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
In the short term, precipitation chances are tricky due to fairly
nebulous forcing coupled with non-zero instability and plentiful
moisture. Skinny CAPE profiles and PWAT values approaching 2 inches
likely spell periods of highly efficient showers and storms but also
several dry periods that will be difficult to time in/out. Because
of the uncertainty in precipitation coverage and location, have
elected not to issue a flash flood watch at this time; however,
isolated flooding is definitely possible if multiple cells track
over a point, especially if they`re convective in nature.
For the rest of the evening, expecting mainly spotty showers across
the majority of the region, and current storms should weaken over
central MO as diurnal instability diminishes, allowing area-wide
precip chances to decrease during the late evening and overnight
hours. Although a rogue strong storm is possible this afternoon or
evening in central MO where MUCAPE exceeds 2000 J/kg and shear
values approach 30 kts, widespread strong/severe storms are not
anticipated, mainly due to the location of the best forcing off to
the north, multiple cold pools stabilizing the boundary layer, and
the marginal deep-layer shear. Storms that develop in eastern NM
into the TX panhandle this evening may develop into a complex that
rolls into the western CWA during the early morning hours, but a
weaker than previously expected LLJ may not support the continuation
of this convection, and do not expect strong or even very widespread
storms during the overnight period.
The NM/TX convection may linger as showers in the morning Sunday,
then additional scattered showers and storms are possible especially
if some clearing occurs during the late morning and early afternoon
hours. The trough axis that fueled some of today`s showers will be
shifting northeast of the region, keeping forcing for organized
convection minimal, and severe weather chances fairly low despite
very slightly increasing deep-layer shear.
The well-advertised slow-moving surface boundary finally starts to
set up Monday, and a second, stronger shortwave trough begins to
eject out into the eastern Plains by Monday night, increasing
precipitation chances. The front will gradually translate southeast
across the CWA from Monday through early Tuesday as the trough
ejects out, then may park just south of the forecast area Tuesday
afternoon through Thursday. Heavy rain is again possible during this
period, but any north-south movement of the boundary may prevent
widespread flooding issues and will also make the placement of any
watch products tricky. For now, will wait until early next week and
plan to issue more short-fused watch products if necessary.
High temperatures throughout the period will be impacted by
convection, and could range anywhere from the low 70s if cloud cover
and especially precipitation lingers the majority of the day, to the
mid to even upper 80s if periods of sunshine occur during the
afternoons. For now have gone with a balance in the upper 70s to
lower 80s, but may need to tweak if precipitation timing become more
certain.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 646 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
Isolated convection over eastern KS looks diurnally driven and not
seeing any discernible forcing mechanism to initiate or maintain
convection until well after midnight. So, believe most of far
eastern KS as well as northwest and west central MO will be mostly
dry tonight. 18z NAM and last couple runs of the HRRR hint that
scattered convection could move back into the terminals towards
daybreak. Overall model performance of late has been poor so
confidence on this occurring is low. Satellite trends and sounding
analysis suggest VFR ceilings through the forecast.
As instability increases Sunday afternoon scattered thunderstorms are
possible. Lacking a boundary to focus on and confidence on them
occurring within 10sm of the terminals is low.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
655 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2015
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
In the short term, precipitation chances are tricky due to fairly
nebulous forcing coupled with non-zero instability and plentiful
moisture. Skinny CAPE profiles and PWAT values approaching 2 inches
likely spell periods of highly efficient showers and storms but also
several dry periods that will be difficult to time in/out. Because
of the uncertainty in precipitation coverage and location, have
elected not to issue a flash flood watch at this time; however,
isolated flooding is definitely possible if multiple cells track
over a point, especially if they`re convective in nature.
For the rest of the evening, expecting mainly spotty showers across
the majority of the region, and current storms should weaken over
central MO as diurnal instability diminishes, allowing area-wide
precip chances to decrease during the late evening and overnight
hours. Although a rogue strong storm is possible this afternoon or
evening in central MO where MUCAPE exceeds 2000 J/kg and shear
values approach 30 kts, widespread strong/severe storms are not
anticipated, mainly due to the location of the best forcing off to
the north, multiple cold pools stabilizing the boundary layer, and
the marginal deep-layer shear. Storms that develop in eastern NM
into the TX panhandle this evening may develop into a complex that
rolls into the western CWA during the early morning hours, but a
weaker than previously expected LLJ may not support the continuation
of this convection, and do not expect strong or even very widespread
storms during the overnight period.
The NM/TX convection may linger as showers in the morning Sunday,
then additional scattered showers and storms are possible especially
if some clearing occurs during the late morning and early afternoon
hours. The trough axis that fueled some of today`s showers will be
shifting northeast of the region, keeping forcing for organized
convection minimal, and severe weather chances fairly low despite
very slightly increasing deep-layer shear.
The well-advertised slow-moving surface boundary finally starts to
set up Monday, and a second, stronger shortwave trough begins to
eject out into the eastern Plains by Monday night, increasing
precipitation chances. The front will gradually translate southeast
across the CWA from Monday through early Tuesday as the trough
ejects out, then may park just south of the forecast area Tuesday
afternoon through Thursday. Heavy rain is again possible during this
period, but any north-south movement of the boundary may prevent
widespread flooding issues and will also make the placement of any
watch products tricky. For now, will wait until early next week and
plan to issue more short-fused watch products if necessary.
High temperatures throughout the period will be impacted by
convection, and could range anywhere from the low 70s if cloud cover
and especially precipitation lingers the majority of the day, to the
mid to even upper 80s if periods of sunshine occur during the
afternoons. For now have gone with a balance in the upper 70s to
lower 80s, but may need to tweak if precipitation timing become more
certain.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 646 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
Isolated convection over eastern KS looks diurnally driven and not
seeing any discernible forcing mechanism to initiate or maintain
convection until well after midnight. So, believe most of far
eastern KS as well as northwest and west central MO will be mostly
dry tonight. 18z NAM and last couple runs of the HRRR hint that
scattered convection could move back into the terminals towards
daybreak. Overall model performance of late has been poor so
confidence on this occurring is low. Satellite trends and sounding
analysis suggest VFR ceilings through the forecast.
As instability increases Sunday afternoon scattered thunderstorms are
possible. Lacking a boundary to focus on and confidence on them
occurring within 10sm of the terminals is low.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
401 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 400 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015
The heavy rain threat will be the main forecast challenge
through the weekend driven by the combination of a surface boundary
in the vicinity and a series of upper level waves rotating through a slow
moving upper trough. Main surface boundary currently draped across
far southern part of forecast area. Some breaks in the cloud cover
have allowed temperatures to warm into the middle 80s along the
boundary while in northwest Missouri temperatures have struggled to
get out of the 60s. The front is providing a focal point for scattered
convection driven by diurnal heating. This activity should diminish
over the forecast area later this evening.
Strengthen LLJ tonight will focus MCS initiation over southern Kansas
and northern Oklahoma tonight. Convective system forecast by high
resolution short term models to move into forecast area after
midnight. During the day on Saturday the surface boundary should work
further north. The highest threat for heavy rainfall appears to be on
Saturday night/Sunday as LLJ once again strengthens after sunset.
This time however the jet is a bit stronger and focused closer to the
forecast area.
Depending on how convection evolves Saturday Night/Sunday morning the
boundary will likely still be in or around the forecast area during
the day Sunday. Convection will remain possible through the day
Sunday with a similar MCS scenario possible on Sunday night.
After coordination with surrounding offices have decided to hold off
on flash flood watch for now. Best threat for heavy rain appears to
be late in the weekend and there are still some questions regarding
timing and location of heavy rain.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 400 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015
Thunderstorm chances will continue early next week as the surface
boundary lingers across central MO and a series of weak shortwave
troughs advance out into the Plains, reinforcing precipitation
chances. Currently, the heaviest rainfall looks like it will focus
mainly south of I-70 given the position of the front, but changes
are definitely possible depending on how convection the previous
days pans out. Severe weather chances will be marginal each day with
the boundary in the area serving as a focus for convection and
adequate instability for storms, but weak shear and complications
from cloud cover/morning convection. Widespread precipitation will
also likely hold high temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s most
days, although spikes in temperature are possible if sufficient
clearing occurs any of the days.
Precipitation chances should taper off but not end altogether as
upper level flow flattens and gradually turns more to the northwest,
keeping many of the upper-level disturbances north of the forecast
area. However, the boundary may not completely shift out of the
region, and storm chances will be non-zero beyond the end of the
period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015
On-going low cloud cover and timing for overnight convection are the
main forecast concerns for this TAF period. Although cloud debris
and associated MCV from early morning convection will keep skies
cloudy the HRRR model ontinues to advertise erosion of low cloud deck
this afternoon. This seems reasonable given time of year and
satellite/METAR trends. Surface boundary has pushed to the south of
the forecast area. This boundary should act as the focus for
afternoon convection in southern and eastern Missouri. More organized
thunderstorm activity is expected to develop overnight over Kansas as
the LLJ strengthens. This activity could make it into the TAF sites
in the 07z-09z time range.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Mitchell
LONG TERM...Laflin
AVIATION...Mitchell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1230 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2015
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1119 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015
Forecast update to account for current radar and cloud trends.
Precipitation from overnight MCS across KS struggled to make it into
eastern Kansas and western Missouri as it moved into more stable air. Surface
boundary has pushed southward and cleared the majority of the
forecast area. Low cloud shield north of the boundary combined with
cloud debris from morning MCS will likely persist into much of the
afternoon. With boundary nearby and MCV still spinning over KS cannot rule
out chance for showers and thunderstorms especially over southern
part of forecast area, however the majority of the area should remain
dry this afternoon.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 329 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015
Cold front will continue to push into central and northeast Missouri
through the morning with generally dry conditions moving in behind it
for a few hours. However, a large convective complex over southwest
KS will likely spread precipitation back into eastern KS and western
MO later this morning albeit in a weakening form. Primary wave
associated with this activity will weaken and push into northeast KS
later today which could spark a few showers and storms along the
stalling boundary over east central KS and central MO. This boundary
will slowly lift back north through the afternoon, bringing the
threat for scattered showers and storms into areas near and a bit
north of I-70 later this afternoon and this evening. None of this
activity looks to be particularly heavy or widespread, at least
through early evening.
More widespread rain and thunderstorms could develop later this
evening and overnight when a low-level jet will nose into the region
and interact with the slowly retreating warm front. Some of this
activity could produce a corridor of heavy rain particularly across
areas near or just south of the KC metro.
A continuous stream of upper-level impulses combined with
anomalously high moisture content will bring several additional
rounds of rain and storms through the area Saturday, Sunday and
Monday. Several of these storms could produce additional heavy
rainfall particularly Saturday night when a resurgence of the low-
level jet will bring a focused corridor of forcing and deep moisture
into eastern KS and western MO. May need to consider a flash flood
watch for tonight and particularly for Saturday night once the
location of the heaviest rain threat can be better determined.
Rain chances will continue into the middle of the week with a steady
stream of deep moisture off the Gulf. With these repeated rounds of
storms, total rainfall amounts over the next 7 days could easily
exceed 2 or 3 inches for much of the area.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015
On-going low cloud cover and timing for overnight convection are the
main forecast concerns for this TAF period. Although cloud debris
and associated MCV from early morning convection will keep skies
cloudy the HRRR model ontinues to advertise erosion of low cloud deck
this afternoon. This seems reasonable given time of year and
satellite/METAR trends. Surface boundary has pushed to the south of
the forecast area. This boundary should act as the focus for
afternoon convection in southern and eastern Missouri. More organized
thunderstorm activity is expected to develop overnight over Kansas as
the LLJ strengthens. This activity could make it into the TAF sites
in the 07z-09z time range.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Mitchell
DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Mitchell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
935 AM MDT FRI JUN 12 2015
.UPDATE...
JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS MORNING.
REMOVED THE PATCHY MORNING FOG BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY. AT 15Z...COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE NW PART OF
THE STATE WITH A LEE TROUGH POSITIONED AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER
EASTERN/CENTRAL MT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH GRADUALLY SE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN GENERATING SOME QPF
OVER AND NEAR THE BEARTOOTHS...ABSAROKAS AND NE BIG HORNS THIS
AFTERNOON AS CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG THE FRONT AND TERRAIN
PROVIDES LIFT AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES. RAP SOUNDINGS SHOWED JUST
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD WITH INVERTED-V PROFILE IN THE LOWER LAYERS.
THE SREF SHOWED 35-40 KT BULK SHEAR OVER CENTRAL AND W ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON...SPREADING E THIS EVENING. CAPES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND
500 J/KG ALONG THE FRONT. SO A MUCH DRIER DAY TODAY...UNTIL
PRECIPITABLE WATERS CLIMB TO AROUND 1 INCH ALONG THE FRONT THIS
EVENING. ADJUSTED AFTERNOON POPS TO CONNECT THE FOOTHILL AREAS IN
THE SW PER THE WRF. CHANCES FOR THUNDER WILL LINGER THROUGH 03Z
ALONG THE FRONT...THEN DECREASE THEREAFTER. POPS LOOKED GOOD
TONIGHT.
MIXING WILL BE BETWEEN 700 AND 600 MB THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 80S. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING DUE TO THE MIXING. ADJUSTED SKY
COVER AND WINDS TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS. ARTHUR
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...
CLOUD DECKS ARE QUITE LOW OVER EASTERN MONTANA THIS MORNING. WENT
AHEAD AND PUT IN THE CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG FOR THE FOUR EASTERN
COUNTIES AS THE TEMP DEW POINT SPREAD IS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES AT
THIS TIME.
FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST...MONTANA WILL FIND ITSELF ON THE
SOUTHERN END OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA. THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL HELP BRING A FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. PRE FRONTAL DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BE IN THE MID 80S...MOST LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY UNTIL THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
SPC HAS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MT HIGHLIGHTED AS MARGINAL FOR
POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. EXAMINATION OF SOME OF THE SSEO
TOOLS CONFIRM THIS SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN BRINGING
SOME CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF BIG HORN AND POWDER RIVER
COUNTIES WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT IN
TIME THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS MINIMAL...BUT WILL
NOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OFF
OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES ARE JUST NOT
SUPPORTIVE OF ANYTHING MORE THAN THAT AT THIS TIME.
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH...THE AIR BEHIND IT WILL BE MUCH
DRIER. SATURDAY TEMPS WILL MAX OUT IN THE MID 70S...AND BE A
PLEASANT DAY. SOME ENERGY WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE CWA FROM THE
NW BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY HELP INITIATE SOME
CONVECTION SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS BEEN HAPPENING OVER THE PAST WEEK.
SINGER
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY A COUPLE OF STRONG
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL AS DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUNDAY WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA PUSHING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH. SURFACE CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT COMBINED WITH ENERGY
ALOFT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO ALL AREAS.
LOWER CHANCE POPS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING TOWARD THE LOWER 80S BY MID WEEK. THE SECOND
STRONGER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH MORE
ORGANIZED ENERGY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AS FAR AS STRONG CONVECTION GOES THE CURRENT PATTERN DOESN`T STAND
OUT AS A REAL FAVORABLE ONE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. EARLY
WEEK TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER WILL HINDER HEATING. PW VALUES
DO REBOUND TO AROUND AN INCH OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES
TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY THOUGH AND LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST SUPPORTING STRONGER SHEAR...SO WOULD THINK THIS WOULD
BE THE TIME FRAME TO FOCUS ON. CHAMBERS
&&
.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG
THE WYOMING MONTANA BORDER BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING. THESE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH
EASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND SHERIDAN COUNTY WYOMING DURING
THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE CLEARING THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
EXPECT LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR STORMS...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL. GUSTY WEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN FOOTHILLS
THIS AFTERNOON. MEIER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 085 054/075 051/068 051/072 054/072 053/082 058/079
0/U 20/U 23/T 23/T 34/T 33/T 33/T
LVM 084 044/076 044/067 045/070 049/076 049/083 051/078
2/T 11/U 23/T 23/T 34/T 33/T 33/T
HDN 087 054/077 051/072 051/075 053/076 052/084 057/081
0/U 30/U 33/T 23/T 44/T 33/T 34/T
MLS 087 056/076 052/072 048/074 053/073 052/079 057/078
0/U 30/U 33/T 23/T 44/T 33/T 34/T
4BQ 086 056/076 050/071 049/073 054/072 051/080 056/079
0/U 21/B 42/T 23/T 45/T 33/T 34/T
BHK 084 055/076 049/072 045/073 050/070 048/076 054/077
0/N 31/B 33/T 23/T 35/T 33/T 34/T
SHR 083 052/073 048/067 046/071 050/072 049/079 053/078
0/U 20/B 33/T 23/T 45/T 33/T 33/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ELKO NV
311 PM PDT FRI JUN 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST TODAY...RESULTING GENERALLY MILD AND MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA...WHILE ISOLATED POCKETS OF
CONVECTION LINGER OVER CENTRAL NEVADA. EXPECT A WARMING TREND WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN FEATURES
THE RIDGE AXIS DIRECTLY OVER THE LKN CWA...WITH THE 582 DAM EAST OF
WENDOVER. THE HRRR CLINGS ONTO CONVECTION THIS EVENING SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50...BUT THE OVERALL DYNAMICS ARE NOT THERE FOR ORGANIZED
TSRA IN THE BOUNDARIES OF THE LKN CWA. FOR TOMORROW ...WENT FOR A
HIGH OF 90F FOR WINNEMUCCA AND 87F IN ELKO...NORMS...AKA MEAN MAX
TEMP...FOR WMC AND EKO FOR JUNE 13TH 82F AND 79F. FOR
SUNDAY...PROGED A HIGH OF 89F FOR WMC AND 86F FOR EKO. WITH
WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE...ANY WAY YOU SLICE IT...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS FOR THIS WEEKEND.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY ALONG AND EAST OF THE NEVADA CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL
CONTINUE INTO A FEW HOURS OF SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING. WEAK
TROUGH RIPPLING THROUGH A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL RETURN THE THREAT
OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEVADA MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. FOLLOWING THIS TROUGH...HEIGHTS
INCREASE SOME WITH THE FLOW REMAINING NEARLY ZONAL FOR WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. STRONG RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST AND A RELATIVELY STRONG TROUGH ENTERING THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL SHIFT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST
WITH WARM DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. OVERALL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...DRIER AIR OVER NORTHERN NEVADA CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH
INTO NORTHERN NYE COUNTY. CONVECTION DEVELOPING SOUTH OF NORTHERN
NYE COUNTY WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA THROUGH THIS EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS FORECAST AT ALL TERMINAL SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO MAJOR FORECAST ISSUES ON FIRE WEATHER.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
97/89/89
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
320 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD WILL CREATE INCREASINGLY HOT
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE COMING WEEK. HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL EXCEED 100 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND...POTENTIALLY REACHING
105 DEGREES FOR SEVERAL DAYS NEXT WEEK. SOMEWHAT COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BREAKS DOWN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTH FROM GA HAS BEEN
ABLE TO GENERATE SOME CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE HAS
DECREASED IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO WHICH IS LIKELY DOWN TO 2 THINGS.
THE EXPANDING MID LEVEL RIDGE IS INCREASING SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
AREA AND AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE BEST PVA SHIFTS FARTHER
NORTH. ALTHOUGH UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT THERE IS STILL THE OUTSIDE
CHANCE THAT AN ISOLATED STORM COULD POSE A LOCALIZED FLOODING
THREAT. STORM MOTION APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH THAT A SINGLE STORM
SHOULD NOT BE ABLE TO PRODUCE FLOODING RAIN BUT 2 STORMS IN THE
SAME GENERAL AREA IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME COULD GIVEN
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 2 INCHES AND A WARM CLOUD DEPTH ON
THE ORDER OF 8 TO 10K FT.
THUS FAR THE SEA BREEZE HAS BEEN UNABLE TO MAKE MUCH INLAND
PROGRESS. THIS IS LIKELY DOWN TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 15 TO
20 KT IN THE 2-3K FT LAYER SEEN ON KLTX VWP. WITH NO SIGNS OF THIS
ABATING THINK THE SEA BREEZE WILL REMAIN PINNED CLOSE TO THE COAST
WITH ONLY A FLATTENED RESULTANT SEA BREEZE PUSHING NORTH AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. HOWEVER WITH SUBSIDENCE INCREASING DO NOT
EXPECT A LOT OF ACTIVITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND UP BETWEEN 4PM AND 5PM AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES MORE OR LESS OVERHEAD. POST SHORTWAVE SUBSIDENCE ALONG WITH
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE BUILDING 5H RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS THE
DEEP CONVECTION BUT LOW TOPPED CU MAY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING
BEFORE LOSS OF HEATING ALLOWS FOR PARTIAL CLEARING OF SKIES
OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVERNIGHT SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY BUT
THERE IS AN OVERALL LACK OF ANY FORCING. OTHER THAN A CHANCE
MEETING OF LINGERING OUTFLOWS THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONVECTION THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IS RATHER LOW. WILL NOT CARRY A MENTIONABLE
POP NUMBER TONIGHT BUT DO NOT PLAN ON GOING WITH ZERO EITHER.
LOWS WILL END UP ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE CLIMO...WITH READING CLOSE TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL PARK ITSELF
SQUARELY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY LEADING TO OUR
FIRST HEAT WAVE OF THE YEAR. ASIDE FROM THE TYPICAL 2-4 DEGREE
SPREAD FROM MODEL TO MODEL THERE ARE NO DISSENTING OPINIONS IN
WHAT IS TO COME.
850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR TO +19C ON SATURDAY AND TO +20C ON
SUNDAY. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED MY FORECAST TEMPS ARE
ALONG/ABOVE THE UPPER EDGE OF MOS GUIDANCE BOTH DAYS: UPPER 90S
INLAND AND 92-96 NEAR THE COAST. EVEN THE BEACHES SHOULD HAVE
HIGHS NEAR 90 WITH THE SEABREEZE NOT PROVIDING A WHOLE LOT OF
COOLING. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 WILL PRODUCE HEAT
INDEX VALUES 97-102 SATURDAY...AND 101-105 SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE MOS WITH MID 70S EXPECTED BOTH
NIGHTS. LOW TEMPS NEAR THE BEACHES MAY ONLY BRIEFLY FALL BELOW 80!
BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THE LOW AND MID LEVEL HIGH WILL SET
UP ACROSS GEORGIA. THIS WILL CREATE A WEAK NW->SE STEERING FLOW
FOR ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT CAN DEVELOP. WITH THE JET STREAM
FLOW AND ANY UPPER DISTURBANCES AND FRONTS WELL TO THE NORTH...
CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY OF 1000-1500 J/KG WILL FIND ITS ONLY
TRIGGER IN THE SEABREEZE. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROBABLY HAVE GOOD
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH IT ON SATURDAY DUE TO STRONGER
BACKGROUND WIND FIELDS. BY SUNDAY LIGHTER OVERALL WINDS MAY ALLOW
FOR BETTER INLAND MOVEMENT OF THE SEABREEZE FRONT BUT WITH LESSER
CONVERGENCE OVERALL. FORECAST POPS RANGE FROM 20-30 PERCENT NEAR
THE SEABREEZE FRONT ON SATURDAY...TO ONLY 10-20 PERCENT ON SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS AN UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD. IN
ADDITION...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE IN COMBINATION WITH A THERMAL
TROUGH INLAND WILL CONTINUE A LIGHT AND MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW THAT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DEWPOINTS OF RIGHT AROUND 70F EACH DAY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDEX VALUES EQUAL TO OR EXCEEDING 100F EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE PERIOD. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AT ITS PEAK OF STRENGTH DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
WIDESPREAD HEAT INDEX VALUES OF UP AROUND 105F ARE A GOOD
POSSIBILITY THEN. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE NEXT HOTTEST DAY...JUST
SLIGHT LOWER IN HEAT INDEX VALUES THAN TUESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE
BECOMES MORE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY SO WE WILL SEE SOME
MODEST IMPROVEMENT THEN...BUT THAT IS ONLY ON A RELATIVE BASIS.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL HELP SUPPRESS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...BUT WITH
SUCH STRONG SURFACE HEATING WE CAN EXPECT ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...THE HRRR MODEL CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SCATTERED
CONVECTION...MAINLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. GIVE THE
CURRENT CU FIELD...THINK THIS IS A GOOD BET. COVERAGE ONLY WARRANTS
A VCSH AT THIS TIME...BUT GIVEN THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER...ANY
SHOWER COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES BRIEFLY BELOW TWO MILES. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST FLOW THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL END BY
EARLY EVENING...WITH LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY...CONTINUED SUMMER PATTERN WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION
EXPECTED.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY AND
MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GRADIENT THIS AFTERNOON WILL MAINTAIN WINDS ON
THE HIGH END OF THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.
GRADIENT BECOMES A LITTLE MORE DEFINED THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...BUMPING SPEEDS TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH AN OCCASIONAL
HIGHER GUST. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT TODAY WILL RUN A SOLID 3 FT OVERNIGHT
WITH POTENTIAL FOR 4 FT ACROSS WATERS OPEN TO EXTENDED SOUTHWEST
FETCH.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...HOT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES THIS WEEKEND. MARINERS WILL ENJOY SOME OF
THE COOLEST WEATHER IN THE AREA WITH AIR TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM 80-85 THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE DETERMINED
LARGELY BY DIURNAL/SEABREEZE EFFECTS: WEST WINDS SUNDAY WILL BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT THEN VEERING
WESTERLY AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY WILL SEE A SIMILAR
PATTERN...BUT WITH LIGHTER OVERALL WINDS THE SEABREEZE SHOULD BACK
WIND DIRECTIONS AROUND TO THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
SHOULD RANGE FROM 2-3 FEET THIS WEEKEND EXCEPT FOR SOME 4-FOOTERS
POSSIBLE AWAY FROM SHORE SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IN
COMBINATION WITH A THERMAL TROUGH INLAND WILL MAKE FOR FAIRLY BENIGN
AND VERY UNIFORM CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXPECT SW WINDS IN TO 10 KT RANGE WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS NEAR SHORE WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND
WILL GUST UP INTO THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING AS THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION DEVELOPS. SEAS NEAR SHORE WILL
LIKEWISE BECOME MORE CHOPPY DURING THOSE TIMES. GREATEST THREAT
THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT MANAGE TO
DEVELOP.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...REK
AVIATION...DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
249 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT AND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL
CREATE WARMING TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED CONVECTION TODAY. VERY
HOT TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD EXCEED 100 DEGREES EACH
AFTERNOON. SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP LATE NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTH FROM GA HAS BEEN
ABLE TO GENERATE SOME CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE HAS
DECREASED IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO WHICH IS LIKELY DOWN TO 2 THINGS.
THE EXPANDING MID LEVEL RIDGE IS INCREASING SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
AREA AND AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE BEST PVA SHIFTS FARTHER
NORTH. ALTHOUGH UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT THERE IS STILL THE OUTSIDE
CHANCE THAT AN ISOLATED STORM COULD POSE A LOCALIZED FLOODING
THREAT. STORM MOTION APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH THAT A SINGLE STORM
SHOULD NOT BE ABLE TO PRODUCE FLOODING RAIN BUT 2 STORMS IN THE
SAME GENERAL AREA IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME COULD GIVEN
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 2 INCHES AND A WARM CLOUD DEPTH ON
THE ORDER OF 8 TO 10K FT.
THUS FAR THE SEA BREEZE HAS BEEN UNABLE TO MAKE MUCH INLAND
PROGRESS. THIS IS LIKELY DOWN TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 15 TO
20 KT IN THE 2-3K FT LAYER SEEN ON KLTX VWP. WITH NO SIGNS OF THIS
ABATING THINK THE SEA BREEZE WILL REMAIN PINNED CLOSE TO THE COAST
WITH ONLY A FLATTENED RESULTANT SEA BREEZE PUSHING NORTH AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. HOWEVER WITH SUBSIDENCE INCREASING DO NOT
EXPECT A LOT OF ACTIVITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND UP BETWEEN 4PM AND 5PM AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES MORE OR LESS OVERHEAD. POST SHORTWAVE SUBSIDENCE ALONG WITH
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE BUILDING 5H RIDGE WILL SUPRESS THE
DEEP CONVECTION BUT LOW TOPPED CU MAY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING
BEFORE LOSS OF HEATING ALLOWS FOR PARTIAL CLEARING OF SKIES
OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVERNIGHT SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY BUT
THERE IS AN OVERALL LACK OF ANY FORCING. OTHER THAN A CHANCE
MEETING OF LINGERING OUTFLOWS THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONVECTION THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IS RATHER LOW. WILL NOT CARRY A MENTIONABLE
POP NUMBER TONIGHT BUT DO NOT PLAN ON GOING WITH ZERO EITHER.
LOWS WILL END UP ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE CLIMO...WITH READING CLOSE TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...
DANGEROUS HEAT THIS WEEKEND...
THE WORD FOR THE WEEKEND IS "HOT" - AS UPPER RIDGE BLOSSOMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST AND BERMUDA HIGH SETS UP OFFSHORE. SATURDAY WILL BE
EXTREMELY HOT ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA AS 850MB TEMPS AROUND 20C
COMBINE WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO WARM THE ENTIRE AREA...EVEN TO THE
BEACHES...TO 90 DEGREES OR HIGHER. MANY LOCATIONS WILL TOUCH 95
SATURDAY...WITH THE HOTTEST SPOTS REACHING 98. THESE TEMPS WILL
COMBINE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 60S AND LOW 70S TO CREATE HEAT
INDEX VALUES OF 100-103 DEGREES - BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT
DANGEROUS NONETHELESS. A HEAT-RELATED SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED TO OUTLINE
THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPCOMING HEAT WAVE. EVEN WITH THE
CONSIDERABLE HEAT AND INSTABILITY SATURDAY...EXPECT NO CONVECTION
THANKS TO SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.
SUNDAY IS A BIT OF A TRICKIER FORECAST. AS THE RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST...A SUBTLE WEAKNESS ON THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY WILL
ALLOW A PIECE OF VORT ENERGY TO DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD
INTO THE AREA. HOW FAR THIS FRONT WILL PENETRATE IS THE BIGGEST
QUESTION MARK AS THE RIDGE ALMOST ALWAYS TENDS TO WIN OUT...BUT WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND THE GUIDANCE REMAINING
CERTAIN WITH ITS WIND SHIFT...HAVE TO AGREE WITH INHERITED AND SHOW
A WIND SHIFT INTO THE NC ZONES OF THE ILM CWA. THERE IS LITTLE COOL
ADVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE...SO THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS WILL BE
MORE CAUSED BY ISOLATED CONVECTION AND SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER
SUNDAY. ACROSS SC...DO NOT EXPECT ANY CHANGE IN AIR MASS...AND TEMPS
ONCE AGAIN WILL CLIMB TO 95-98 INLAND...90-93 AT THE COAST. HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB ABOVE 100 DEGREES...SAVE THE FAR
NE COUNTIES OF THE AREA...BUT ARE AGAIN FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST
BELOW HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL DO LITTLE TO EASE THE HEAT...AND REAL MID-
SUMMER HUMID MINS IN THE MID TO UPR 70S ARE FORECAST BOTH NIGHTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON SEVERAL
DAYS. LARGE UPPER RIDGE STAYS OVER THE AREA WHILE BERMUDA HIGH
BECOMES ANCHORED OFFSHORE. HIGH THICKNESSES COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT
WARM/MOIST RETURN FLOW IN AN ALREADY HOT ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE
DANGEROUS HEAT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. 500MB HEIGHTS
ACTUALLY CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHEN SOME 593DM BEGIN
TO SHOW UP IN THE VICINITY...CORRELATING WITH 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING
TOWARDS 22C. ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON ITS NEAR-RECORD 850MB TEMPS
(THANKFULLY)...BUT SEVERAL DAYS OF 20-22C 850MB TEMPS COMBINED WITH
VERY WARM MINS AND A CONTINUED STAGNANT AIRMASS WILL DRIVE HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 90S EVERY DAY...AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPR 70S. IN
FACT...THIS SEEMS LIKE AN AIR MASS THAT WILL SUPPORT A FEW 100+
DEGREE AIR-TEMPERATURE READINGS NEXT WEEK INLAND...AS WELL AS
SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE BEACH NOT FALLING BELOW 80 AT NIGHT.
THE COMBINATION OF THE VERY HOT TEMPS AND HIGH DEWPOINT AIR THANKS
TO CONTINUED MOIST ADVECTION AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH...WILL DRIVE
HEAT INDEX VALUES TO WELL OVER 100 DEGREES...AND IT IS LOOKING MORE
LIKELY THAT HEAT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR A LARGE PORTION OF
THE AREA SEVERAL DAYS NEXT WEEK. THE HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
BE INLAND FROM THE COAST...BUT EVEN NEAR THE BEACHES IT WILL FEEL
LIKE 100 DEGREES MOST AFTNS. THIS IS TRUE SUMMER HEAT...AND WE ASK
YOU TO REFER TO THE HEAT SPS FOR MORE INFORMATION.
EVEN THOUGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE HIGH...AFTN CONVECTION WILL BE
VERY TOUGH TO COME BY AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE FORCING ALOFT...AND A
STRONG SUBSIDENT CAP TO SURFACE PARCELS. LATE IN THE PERIOD HEIGHTS
MAY BEGIN TO FALL...BUT THE GUIDANCE TENDS TO BE TOO QUICK TO BREAK
DOWN THESE TYPES OF RIDGES SO WILL TONE DOWN INHERITED POP TO
SCHC/SILENT AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED...WITH ONLY ISOLATED/NONE THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...THE HRRR MODEL CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SCATTERED
CONVECTION...MAINLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. GIVE THE
CURRENT CU FIELD...THINK THIS IS A GOOD BET. COVERAGE ONLY WARRANTS
A VCSH AT THIS TIME...BUT GIVEN THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER...ANY
SHOWER COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES BRIEFLY BELOW TWO MILES. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST FLOW THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL END BY
EARLY EVENING...WITH LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY...CONTINUED SUMMER PATTERN WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION
EXPECTED.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY AND
MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GRADIENT THIS AFTERNOON WILL MAINTAIN WINDS ON
THE HIGH END OF THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.
GRADIENT BECOMES A LITTLE MORE DEFINED THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...BUMPING SPEEDS TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH AN OCCASIONAL
HIGHER GUST. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT TODAY WILL RUN A SOLID 3 FT OVERNIGHT
WITH POTENTIAL FOR 4 FT ACROSS WATERS OPEN TO EXTENDED SOUTHWEST
FETCH.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...W/SW WINDS AROUND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
SATURDAY WILL TRANSITION TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUNDAY...AND
EVENTUALLY W/NW LATE SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH DROPS
INTO THE LOCAL WATERS. WIND SPEEDS ON SATURDAY WILL BE 15-20
KTS...THE HIGHEST DURING THE WKND...AND WILL PUSH WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO
3-4 FT. WHILE A SE GROUND SWELL WILL BE PRESENT...THE SPECTRUM WILL
BE MOSTLY CONTROLLED BY THE WIND WAVES ON SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY...AS
THE WINDS EASE AND BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE NW...SPEEDS WILL DROP TO
LESS THAN 10 KTS REGARDLESS OF DIRECTION. THIS WILL LEAVE THE SWELL
AS THE PREDOMINANT WAVE GROUP...AND SEAS WILL DROP TO 1 - 3FT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...WEAK FRONT/TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE AND LIFT
NORTH EARLY MONDAY. THIS LEAVES LIGHT WINDS THE FIRST PART OF
MONDAY...BUT AS BERMUDA HIGH RE-ASSERTS ITSELF THE DIRECTION WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS. ON TUESDAY...BERMUDA
HIGH WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ONCE AGAIN...AND SW WINDS WILL BE
PRESENT ACROSS THE WATERS AT 10-15 KTS. SEAS EARLY MONDAY WILL BE 1-
3 FT...BUT WILL INCREASE SLOWLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...BECOMING 3-4 FT
LATE TUESDAY AS THE SW WIND WAVE AMPLIFIES.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
206 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT AND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL
CREATE WARMING TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED CONVECTION TODAY. VERY
HOT TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD EXCEED 100 DEGREES EACH
AFTERNOON. SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP LATE NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTH FROM GA HAS BEEN ABLE
TO GENERATE SOME CONVECTION DURING THE PAST HOUR. COVERAGE IS A
BIT MORE THAN WAS EXPECTED...BUT GIVEN THE LATEST SURFACE TEMPS
AND AMOUNT OF DEEP MOISTURE THIS IS NOT ALL THAT SURPRISING.
ALTHOUGH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE CAN BE SEEN SLOWLY EXPANDING IN WATER
VAPOR IT HAS SO FAR BEEN UNABLE TO TOTALLY SUPRESS THE CONVECTION.
CURRENT ACTIVITY AROUND THE NC/SC BORDER WILL SPREAD NORTH AND
EAST AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
THINK THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BETWEEN 4PM AND
6PM AS THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVES AND THE PVA SHIFTS OFFSHORE. POST
SHORTWAVE SUBSIDENCE ALONG WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE
BUILDING 5H RIDGE WILL SUPRESS THE DEEP CONVECTION BUT LOW TOPPED
CU ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO THE EVENING BEFORE LOSS OF HEATING
ALLOWS FOR PARTIAL CLEARING OVER SKIES OVERNIGHT.
THUS FAR THE SEA BREEZE HAS BEEN UNABLE TO MAKE MUCH INLAND
PROGRESS. THIS IS LIKELY DOWN TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 15 TO
20 KT IN THE 2-3K FT LAYER SEEN ON KLTX VWP. WITH NO SIGNS OF THIS
ABATING THINK THE SEA BREEZE WILL REMAIN PINNED CLOSE TO THE COAST
WITH ONLY A FLATTENED RESULTANT SEA BREEZE PUSHING NORTH AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. HOWEVER WITH SUBSIDENCE INCREASING DO NOT
EXPECT A LOT OF ACTIVITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVERNIGHT SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY BUT
THERE IS AN OVERALL LACK OF ANY FORCING. OTHER THAN A CHANCE
MEETING OF LINGERING OUTFLOWS THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONVECTION THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IS RATHER LOW. WILL NOT CARRY A MENTIONABLE
POP NUMBER TONGIHT BUT DO NOT PLAN ON GOING WITH ZERO EITHER. LOWS
WILL END UP ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE CLIMO...WITH READING CLOSE TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...
DANGEROUS HEAT THIS WEEKEND...
THE WORD FOR THE WEEKEND IS "HOT" - AS UPPER RIDGE BLOSSOMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST AND BERMUDA HIGH SETS UP OFFSHORE. SATURDAY WILL BE
EXTREMELY HOT ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA AS 850MB TEMPS AROUND 20C
COMBINE WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO WARM THE ENTIRE AREA...EVEN TO THE
BEACHES...TO 90 DEGREES OR HIGHER. MANY LOCATIONS WILL TOUCH 95
SATURDAY...WITH THE HOTTEST SPOTS REACHING 98. THESE TEMPS WILL
COMBINE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 60S AND LOW 70S TO CREATE HEAT
INDEX VALUES OF 100-103 DEGREES - BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT
DANGEROUS NONETHELESS. A HEAT-RELATED SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED TO OUTLINE
THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPCOMING HEAT WAVE. EVEN WITH THE
CONSIDERABLE HEAT AND INSTABILITY SATURDAY...EXPECT NO CONVECTION
THANKS TO SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.
SUNDAY IS A BIT OF A TRICKIER FORECAST. AS THE RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST...A SUBTLE WEAKNESS ON THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY WILL
ALLOW A PIECE OF VORT ENERGY TO DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD
INTO THE AREA. HOW FAR THIS FRONT WILL PENETRATE IS THE BIGGEST
QUESTION MARK AS THE RIDGE ALMOST ALWAYS TENDS TO WIN OUT...BUT WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND THE GUIDANCE REMAINING
CERTAIN WITH ITS WIND SHIFT...HAVE TO AGREE WITH INHERITED AND SHOW
A WIND SHIFT INTO THE NC ZONES OF THE ILM CWA. THERE IS LITTLE COOL
ADVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE...SO THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS WILL BE
MORE CAUSED BY ISOLATED CONVECTION AND SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER
SUNDAY. ACROSS SC...DO NOT EXPECT ANY CHANGE IN AIR MASS...AND TEMPS
ONCE AGAIN WILL CLIMB TO 95-98 INLAND...90-93 AT THE COAST. HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB ABOVE 100 DEGREES...SAVE THE FAR
NE COUNTIES OF THE AREA...BUT ARE AGAIN FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST
BELOW HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL DO LITTLE TO EASE THE HEAT...AND REAL MID-
SUMMER HUMID MINS IN THE MID TO UPR 70S ARE FORECAST BOTH NIGHTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON SEVERAL
DAYS. LARGE UPPER RIDGE STAYS OVER THE AREA WHILE BERMUDA HIGH
BECOMES ANCHORED OFFSHORE. HIGH THICKNESSES COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT
WARM/MOIST RETURN FLOW IN AN ALREADY HOT ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE
DANGEROUS HEAT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. 500MB HEIGHTS
ACTUALLY CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHEN SOME 593DM BEGIN
TO SHOW UP IN THE VICINITY...CORRELATING WITH 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING
TOWARDS 22C. ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON ITS NEAR-RECORD 850MB TEMPS
(THANKFULLY)...BUT SEVERAL DAYS OF 20-22C 850MB TEMPS COMBINED WITH
VERY WARM MINS AND A CONTINUED STAGNANT AIRMASS WILL DRIVE HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 90S EVERY DAY...AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPR 70S. IN
FACT...THIS SEEMS LIKE AN AIR MASS THAT WILL SUPPORT A FEW 100+
DEGREE AIR-TEMPERATURE READINGS NEXT WEEK INLAND...AS WELL AS
SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE BEACH NOT FALLING BELOW 80 AT NIGHT.
THE COMBINATION OF THE VERY HOT TEMPS AND HIGH DEWPOINT AIR THANKS
TO CONTINUED MOIST ADVECTION AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH...WILL DRIVE
HEAT INDEX VALUES TO WELL OVER 100 DEGREES...AND IT IS LOOKING MORE
LIKELY THAT HEAT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR A LARGE PORTION OF
THE AREA SEVERAL DAYS NEXT WEEK. THE HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
BE INLAND FROM THE COAST...BUT EVEN NEAR THE BEACHES IT WILL FEEL
LIKE 100 DEGREES MOST AFTNS. THIS IS TRUE SUMMER HEAT...AND WE ASK
YOU TO REFER TO THE HEAT SPS FOR MORE INFORMATION.
EVEN THOUGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE HIGH...AFTN CONVECTION WILL BE
VERY TOUGH TO COME BY AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE FORCING ALOFT...AND A
STRONG SUBSIDENT CAP TO SURFACE PARCELS. LATE IN THE PERIOD HEIGHTS
MAY BEGIN TO FALL...BUT THE GUIDANCE TENDS TO BE TOO QUICK TO BREAK
DOWN THESE TYPES OF RIDGES SO WILL TONE DOWN INHERITED POP TO
SCHC/SILENT AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED...WITH ONLY ISOLATED/NONE THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...THE HRRR MODEL CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SCATTERED
CONVECTION...MAINLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. GIVE THE
CURRENT CU FIELD...THINK THIS IS A GOOD BET. COVERAGE ONLY WARRANTS
A VCSH AT THIS TIME...BUT GIVEN THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER...ANY
SHOWER COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES BRIEFLY BELOW TWO MILES. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST FLOW THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL END BY
EARLY EVENING...WITH LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY...CONTINUED SUMMER PATTERN WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION
EXPECTED.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY AND
MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GRADIENT THIS AFTERNOON WILL MAINTAIN WINDS ON
THE HIGH END OF THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.
GRADIENT BECOMES A LITTLE MORE DEFINED THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...BUMPING SPEEDS TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH AN OCCASIONAL
HIGHER GUST. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT TODAY WILL RUN A SOLID 3 FT OVERNIGHT
WITH POTENTIAL FOR 4 FT ACROSS WATERS OPEN TO EXTENDED SOUTHWEST
FETCH.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...W/SW WINDS AROUND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
SATURDAY WILL TRANSITION TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUNDAY...AND
EVENTUALLY W/NW LATE SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH DROPS
INTO THE LOCAL WATERS. WIND SPEEDS ON SATURDAY WILL BE 15-20
KTS...THE HIGHEST DURING THE WKND...AND WILL PUSH WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO
3-4 FT. WHILE A SE GROUND SWELL WILL BE PRESENT...THE SPECTRUM WILL
BE MOSTLY CONTROLLED BY THE WIND WAVES ON SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY...AS
THE WINDS EASE AND BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE NW...SPEEDS WILL DROP TO
LESS THAN 10 KTS REGARDLESS OF DIRECTION. THIS WILL LEAVE THE SWELL
AS THE PREDOMINANT WAVE GROUP...AND SEAS WILL DROP TO 1 - 3FT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...WEAK FRONT/TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE AND LIFT
NORTH EARLY MONDAY. THIS LEAVES LIGHT WINDS THE FIRST PART OF
MONDAY...BUT AS BERMUDA HIGH RE-ASSERTS ITSELF THE DIRECTION WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS. ON TUESDAY...BERMUDA
HIGH WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ONCE AGAIN...AND SW WINDS WILL BE
PRESENT ACROSS THE WATERS AT 10-15 KTS. SEAS EARLY MONDAY WILL BE 1-
3 FT...BUT WILL INCREASE SLOWLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...BECOMING 3-4 FT
LATE TUESDAY AS THE SW WIND WAVE AMPLIFIES.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1244 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A PROLONGED HEAT WAVE IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHILE A THERMAL TROF OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF NC THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE
STATE SUNDAY NIGHT THEN DISSIPATE ON MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT
WILL DROP INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1245 PM FRI...MADE A FEW PRECIP ADJUSTMENTS ALONG THE SRN
COASTAL AREAS TO INCLUDE LOW POPS WITH CONVECTION MOVING NE ALONG
THE CARTERET COUNTY COAST EARLY THIS AFTN. 4KM WRF AND HRRR MODELS
INDICATE A GOOD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AWAY FROM THE COAST
STARTING EARLY THIS AFTN AND CONTG THROUGH THE AFTN THEN WANING
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HTG THIS EVE. RADAR STARTING TO PICK UP ON
SOME WEAK RETURNS ALONG THE SEASBREEZE IN THE SWRN AREAS. EVEN
WITH MDT INSTABILITY AND AMPLE AMS MSTR...PW VALUES ARND 1.75
INCHES...SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK SO SVR TSRA ARE NOT
EXPECTED THIS AFTN BUT THERE COULD BE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
THE SEA BREEZE FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH E NC FROM THE SW TO PRODUCE SCT
THUNDERSTORMS. CONT 30-50 POPS INLAND TO 10-20 PERCENT ON THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 90
INLAND TO MID 80S BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM FRI...A LINGERING THUNDERSHOWER POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING BEFORE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND EXITING WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY END ANY THREAT OF PRECIP BY MIDNIGHT. ANOTHER WARM AND
MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 115 AM FRI...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. RIDGE ALOFT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WITH ZONAL FLOW OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. GOOD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AHEAD OF APPROACHING BOUNDARY WILL
BRING AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 90S AWAY FROM THE
WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH DRY ON SATURDAY...BUT STRONG
HEATING COULD HELP POP A FEW AFTERNOON STORMS.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE DROPS THROUGH THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE. SHOWERS POSSIBLE STARTING SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MONDAY WITH LINGERING MOISTURE AND UPPER FORCING.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A COUPLE OF DEGREES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
NORTH AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT EXPECT THEM TO
REMAIN IN THE LOWER 90S.
RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE AT THE SURFACE ANOTHER BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY. ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS BOUNDARY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY AS IT DROPS SOUTH OF THE AREA. WAVE WILL FORM ON THE FRONT
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND WILL INCREASE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA AT THE SURFACE
FOR TYPICAL AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM FRI...CURRENTLY VRF CONDS AT THE TAF SITES...OTRW
SCT THUNDERSHOWERS A POSSIBILITY AFTER 18Z AND CONT TO INDICATE THE
THREAT WITH A VCSH AT ALL TERMINALS. ANY PRECIP WILL END DURG THE
EVE. S TO SW WINDS BECOME GUSTY AROUND 15 KT BEFORE DIMINISHING
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND SAT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 122 AM FRI...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA TAF SITES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MAY SEE SUB VFR
CONDITIONS IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AS A WEAK BOUNDARY DROPS THROUGH THE AREA. ANOTHER BOUNDARY EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH AREA LATE TUESDAY WITH ISOLATED SUB VFR CONDITIONS
IN STORMS. MAY ALSO SEE SOME ISOLATED PRE DAWN STRATUS AND FOG.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 PM FRI...SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO ADD LOW POPS ACROSS THE
SRN COASTAL WATERS OF OFF CARTERET/OBX HYDE COUNTIES ASSOC WITH
CONVECTION MOVG NE ALONG THE SRN COAST COAST EARLY THIS AFTN. S TO
SW WINDS 5-15 KT CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTN WITH 2-4 FT SEAS. SOMEWHAT TIGHTER GRADIENT WILL
INC WINDS A BIT TONIGHT IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE...THOUGH STILL
EXPECTING SUB SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT...THOUGH WIND GUSTS
MAY APPROACH 25 KT FOR THE OUTER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WATERS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 147 AM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS WILL START THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE WEST TIGHTENING GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS FOR
SOUTHWEST FLOW 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 5 FEET OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE
WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS THROUGH
SUNDAY...WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. WILL SEE FLOW BECOME WEST AND
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THIS FRONT. FLOW TO BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY MONDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO NOSE BACK IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.
ANOTHER BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY WITH
SURFACE FLOW SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 2 TO 4
FEET.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...JAC/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...CCG
AVIATION...JAC/CCG/TL
MARINE...JAC/CCG/TL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1016 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT AND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL
CREATE WARMING TEMPS AND ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTIVE CHANCES TODAY.
VERY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD EXCEED 100 DEGREES EACH
AFTERNOON. SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP LATE NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM FRIDAY...CONVECTION OFF THE MYR COAST THAT FLARED UP
THIS MORNING AND BRUSHED CAPE FEAR IS NOW HEADING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST NC COAST. THIS ACTIVITY MAY END UP DELAYING DEVELOPMENT
OF ISOLATED CONVECTION LATER TODAY. COMBINATION OF SEA BREEZE AND
SHORTWAVE ROTATING NORTH FROM GA IS EXPECTED TO FIRE OFF STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS NC. HOWEVER THIS MORNINGS
CONVECTION MIGHT HAVE A BRIEF NEGATIVE IMPACT ON THE SEA
BREEZE...DELAYING ITS DEVELOPMENT.
DO THINK SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP BUT
DURATION OF ANY PARTICULAR STORM MAY BE QUITE SHORT. MID LEVEL
RIDGE EXPANDING FROM THE SOUTH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...IN FACT THE 12Z CHS SOUNDING IS ALREADY SHOWING
THIS BETWEEN 8K AND 14K FT. THIS WILL HELP SUPRESS MUCH OF THE
UPWARD MOTION GENERATED BY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE AND BY MID LEVEL PVA. SO WHILE THERE WILL BE A LOT OF
INSTABILITY...MOISTURE...AND SUPPORT THE 5H RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY
WIN OUT. STILL SHORT LIVED BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WHERE STORMS
DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE ABOVE
CLIMO WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOW 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND OUTSIDE
OF ANY CONVECTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...
DANGEROUS HEAT THIS WEEKEND...
THE WORD FOR THE WEEKEND IS "HOT" - AS UPPER RIDGE BLOSSOMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST AND BERMUDA HIGH SETS UP OFFSHORE. SATURDAY WILL BE
EXTREMELY HOT ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA AS 850MB TEMPS AROUND 20C
COMBINE WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO WARM THE ENTIRE AREA...EVEN TO THE
BEACHES...TO 90 DEGREES OR HIGHER. MANY LOCATIONS WILL TOUCH 95
SATURDAY...WITH THE HOTTEST SPOTS REACHING 98. THESE TEMPS WILL
COMBINE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 60S AND LOW 70S TO CREATE HEAT
INDEX VALUES OF 100-103 DEGREES - BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT
DANGEROUS NONETHELESS. A HEAT-RELATED SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED TO OUTLINE
THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPCOMING HEAT WAVE. EVEN WITH THE
CONSIDERABLE HEAT AND INSTABILITY SATURDAY...EXPECT NO CONVECTION
THANKS TO SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.
SUNDAY IS A BIT OF A TRICKIER FORECAST. AS THE RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST...A SUBTLE WEAKNESS ON THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY WILL
ALLOW A PIECE OF VORT ENERGY TO DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD
INTO THE AREA. HOW FAR THIS FRONT WILL PENETRATE IS THE BIGGEST
QUESTION MARK AS THE RIDGE ALMOST ALWAYS TENDS TO WIN OUT...BUT WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND THE GUIDANCE REMAINING
CERTAIN WITH ITS WIND SHIFT...HAVE TO AGREE WITH INHERITED AND SHOW
A WIND SHIFT INTO THE NC ZONES OF THE ILM CWA. THERE IS LITTLE COOL
ADVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE...SO THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS WILL BE
MORE CAUSED BY ISOLATED CONVECTION AND SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER
SUNDAY. ACROSS SC...DO NOT EXPECT ANY CHANGE IN AIR MASS...AND TEMPS
ONCE AGAIN WILL CLIMB TO 95-98 INLAND...90-93 AT THE COAST. HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB ABOVE 100 DEGREES...SAVE THE FAR
NE COUNTIES OF THE AREA...BUT ARE AGAIN FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST
BELOW HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL DO LITTLE TO EASE THE HEAT...AND REAL MID-
SUMMER HUMID MINS IN THE MID TO UPR 70S ARE FORECAST BOTH NIGHTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON SEVERAL
DAYS. LARGE UPPER RIDGE STAYS OVER THE AREA WHILE BERMUDA HIGH
BECOMES ANCHORED OFFSHORE. HIGH THICKNESSES COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT
WARM/MOIST RETURN FLOW IN AN ALREADY HOT ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE
DANGEROUS HEAT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. 500MB HEIGHTS
ACTUALLY CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHEN SOME 593DM BEGIN
TO SHOW UP IN THE VICINITY...CORRELATING WITH 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING
TOWARDS 22C. ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON ITS NEAR-RECORD 850MB TEMPS
(THANKFULLY)...BUT SEVERAL DAYS OF 20-22C 850MB TEMPS COMBINED WITH
VERY WARM MINS AND A CONTINUED STAGNANT AIRMASS WILL DRIVE HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 90S EVERY DAY...AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPR 70S. IN
FACT...THIS SEEMS LIKE AN AIR MASS THAT WILL SUPPORT A FEW 100+
DEGREE AIR-TEMPERATURE READINGS NEXT WEEK INLAND...AS WELL AS
SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE BEACH NOT FALLING BELOW 80 AT NIGHT.
THE COMBINATION OF THE VERY HOT TEMPS AND HIGH DEWPOINT AIR THANKS
TO CONTINUED MOIST ADVECTION AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH...WILL DRIVE
HEAT INDEX VALUES TO WELL OVER 100 DEGREES...AND IT IS LOOKING MORE
LIKELY THAT HEAT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR A LARGE PORTION OF
THE AREA SEVERAL DAYS NEXT WEEK. THE HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
BE INLAND FROM THE COAST...BUT EVEN NEAR THE BEACHES IT WILL FEEL
LIKE 100 DEGREES MOST AFTNS. THIS IS TRUE SUMMER HEAT...AND WE ASK
YOU TO REFER TO THE HEAT SPS FOR MORE INFORMATION.
EVEN THOUGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE HIGH...AFTN CONVECTION WILL BE
VERY TOUGH TO COME BY AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE FORCING ALOFT...AND A
STRONG SUBSIDENT CAP TO SURFACE PARCELS. LATE IN THE PERIOD HEIGHTS
MAY BEGIN TO FALL...BUT THE GUIDANCE TENDS TO BE TOO QUICK TO BREAK
DOWN THESE TYPES OF RIDGES SO WILL TONE DOWN INHERITED POP TO
SCHC/SILENT AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED...WITH ONLY ISOLATED/NONE THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST
FEW HOURS IN BRINGING A BATCH OF CONVECTION INTO THE ILM AREA. STILL
NOTHING ON THE RADAR SO CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS RATHER LOW.
LIKEWISE...NOT MUCH ON SATELLITE EITHER AT THIS POINT. THIS MOISTURE
WILL WAVE NORTH TODAY...WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE RESULTANT WILL MOVE SLOWLY INLAND
TODAY...WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION SPREADING WESTWARD. LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY AND
MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM FRIDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS ON
THE HIGH SIDE OF THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE TODAY WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE OVERNIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT MAY OCCASIONALLY TOUCH 4 FT
WELL AWAY FROM SHORE.
SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES
WITH S-SW WINDS AND A WEAK BERMUDA ESE SWELL...ACCOMPANIED BY
GUSTS NEAR 20 KT INSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. A FEW
TSTMS MAY DRIFT NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON FAVORED OVER THE NC
WATERS N OF CAPE FEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE ALOFT. SEAS TODAY
WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE WIND PORTION OF THE SPECTRUM WITH S WAVES
2-3 FEET EVERY 5-6 SECONDS. THE ESE BERMUDA WAVE ENERGY 1-2 FEET
EVERY 8-9 SECONDS MAY MOSTLY BE MASKED BY THE MODERATE WIND-SEAS.
20 KT GUSTS SHOULD BE EXPECTED NEAR SHORE BETWEEN 3PM-7PM. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN/NEAR TSTMS.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...W/SW WINDS AROUND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
SATURDAY WILL TRANSITION TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUNDAY...AND
EVENTUALLY W/NW LATE SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH DROPS
INTO THE LOCAL WATERS. WIND SPEEDS ON SATURDAY WILL BE 15-20
KTS...THE HIGHEST DURING THE WKND...AND WILL PUSH WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO
3-4 FT. WHILE A SE GROUND SWELL WILL BE PRESENT...THE SPECTRUM WILL
BE MOSTLY CONTROLLED BY THE WIND WAVES ON SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY...AS
THE WINDS EASE AND BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE NW...SPEEDS WILL DROP TO
LESS THAN 10 KTS REGARDLESS OF DIRECTION. THIS WILL LEAVE THE SWELL
AS THE PREDOMINANT WAVE GROUP...AND SEAS WILL DROP TO 1 - 3FT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...WEAK FRONT/TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE AND LIFT
NORTH EARLY MONDAY. THIS LEAVES LIGHT WINDS THE FIRST PART OF
MONDAY...BUT AS BERMUDA HIGH RE-ASSERTS ITSELF THE DIRECTION WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS. ON TUESDAY...BERMUDA
HIGH WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ONCE AGAIN...AND SW WINDS WILL BE
PRESENT ACROSS THE WATERS AT 10-15 KTS. SEAS EARLY MONDAY WILL BE 1-
3 FT...BUT WILL INCREASE SLOWLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...BECOMING 3-4 FT
LATE TUESDAY AS THE SW WIND WAVE AMPLIFIES.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
635 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT AND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL
CREATE WARMING TEMPS AND ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTIVE CHANCES TODAY.
VERY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD EXCEED 100 DEGREES EACH
AFTERNOON. SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP LATE NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 607 AM FRIDAY...PICTURES FROM SPACE IN THE VAPOR CHANNEL
SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE EXPANDING NORTHWARD OVER THE SE AND THE
CAROLINAS. APPRECIABLE COLUMN MOISTURE OF GULF ORIGIN CAUGHT IN
THIS RIDGE IS CIRCULATING NORTH AND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING.
ONE FEATURE OF NOTE CAN BE DISCERNED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA WHERE
ENHANCED MOISTURE IS POOLED THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV THAT
IS DRAWING TOWARD CAPE FEAR. THE LATEST HRRR AND NSSL WRF MODEL
DEPICTIONS HANDLE THIS FEATURE AS A CONVECTIVE CATALYST WHICH IS
FEASIBLE AS THERE IS ALREADY SIMILAR HISTORY WITH THE IMPULSE AS
EARLIER CONVECTION OVER THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. INTERACTION
WITH A ROBUST SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY AND TIMING MIGRATION OF THE
PERTURBATION IMPLIES ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON PRIMARILY OVER OUR NORTH CAROLINA ZONES. SUBSIDENCE IN
WAKE OF THIS FEATURE IS SET TO OVERSPREAD NE SC AND SE NC IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON. THE SUBSIDENT REGION IS PRESENTLY EVIDENT IN VAPOR
MOVIES ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA. THE
WEAK COLUMN WINDS AND LOW SHEAR PARAMETERS SHOULD HINDER THE
SEVERE THREAT...BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
STRONG LOW-LEVEL HEATING.
MAXIMUMS TODAY A DEGREE OR TWO HOTTER THAN YESTERDAY MOST AREAS
OUTSIDE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION...UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S MOST
LOCATIONS WITH APPARENT TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER MILD OVERNIGHT ANTICIPATED...72-76 FOR
MINIMUMS EARLY SATURDAY...MILDEST NEAR THE SEA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...
DANGEROUS HEAT THIS WEEKEND...
THE WORD FOR THE WEEKEND IS "HOT" - AS UPPER RIDGE BLOSSOMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST AND BERMUDA HIGH SETS UP OFFSHORE. SATURDAY WILL BE
EXTREMELY HOT ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA AS 850MB TEMPS AROUND 20C
COMBINE WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO WARM THE ENTIRE AREA...EVEN TO THE
BEACHES...TO 90 DEGREES OR HIGHER. MANY LOCATIONS WILL TOUCH 95
SATURDAY...WITH THE HOTTEST SPOTS REACHING 98. THESE TEMPS WILL
COMBINE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 60S AND LOW 70S TO CREATE HEAT
INDEX VALUES OF 100-103 DEGREES - BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT
DANGEROUS NONETHELESS. A HEAT-RELATED SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED TO OUTLINE
THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPCOMING HEAT WAVE. EVEN WITH THE
CONSIDERABLE HEAT AND INSTABILITY SATURDAY...EXPECT NO CONVECTION
THANKS TO SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.
SUNDAY IS A BIT OF A TRICKIER FORECAST. AS THE RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST...A SUBTLE WEAKNESS ON THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY WILL
ALLOW A PIECE OF VORT ENERGY TO DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD
INTO THE AREA. HOW FAR THIS FRONT WILL PENETRATE IS THE BIGGEST
QUESTION MARK AS THE RIDGE ALMOST ALWAYS TENDS TO WIN OUT...BUT WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND THE GUIDANCE REMAINING
CERTAIN WITH ITS WIND SHIFT...HAVE TO AGREE WITH INHERITED AND SHOW
A WIND SHIFT INTO THE NC ZONES OF THE ILM CWA. THERE IS LITTLE COOL
ADVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE...SO THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS WILL BE
MORE CAUSED BY ISOLATED CONVECTION AND SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER
SUNDAY. ACROSS SC...DO NOT EXPECT ANY CHANGE IN AIR MASS...AND TEMPS
ONCE AGAIN WILL CLIMB TO 95-98 INLAND...90-93 AT THE COAST. HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB ABOVE 100 DEGREES...SAVE THE FAR
NE COUNTIES OF THE AREA...BUT ARE AGAIN FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST
BELOW HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL DO LITTLE TO EASE THE HEAT...AND REAL MID-
SUMMER HUMID MINS IN THE MID TO UPR 70S ARE FORECAST BOTH NIGHTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON SEVERAL
DAYS. LARGE UPPER RIDGE STAYS OVER THE AREA WHILE BERMUDA HIGH
BECOMES ANCHORED OFFSHORE. HIGH THICKNESSES COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT
WARM/MOIST RETURN FLOW IN AN ALREADY HOT ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE
DANGEROUS HEAT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. 500MB HEIGHTS
ACTUALLY CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHEN SOME 593DM BEGIN
TO SHOW UP IN THE VICINITY...CORRELATING WITH 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING
TOWARDS 22C. ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON ITS NEAR-RECORD 850MB TEMPS
(THANKFULLY)...BUT SEVERAL DAYS OF 20-22C 850MB TEMPS COMBINED WITH
VERY WARM MINS AND A CONTINUED STAGNANT AIRMASS WILL DRIVE HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 90S EVERY DAY...AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPR 70S. IN
FACT...THIS SEEMS LIKE AN AIR MASS THAT WILL SUPPORT A FEW 100+
DEGREE AIR-TEMPERATURE READINGS NEXT WEEK INLAND...AS WELL AS
SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE BEACH NOT FALLING BELOW 80 AT NIGHT.
THE COMBINATION OF THE VERY HOT TEMPS AND HIGH DEWPOINT AIR THANKS
TO CONTINUED MOIST ADVECTION AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH...WILL DRIVE
HEAT INDEX VALUES TO WELL OVER 100 DEGREES...AND IT IS LOOKING MORE
LIKELY THAT HEAT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR A LARGE PORTION OF
THE AREA SEVERAL DAYS NEXT WEEK. THE HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
BE INLAND FROM THE COAST...BUT EVEN NEAR THE BEACHES IT WILL FEEL
LIKE 100 DEGREES MOST AFTNS. THIS IS TRUE SUMMER HEAT...AND WE ASK
YOU TO REFER TO THE HEAT SPS FOR MORE INFORMATION.
EVEN THOUGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE HIGH...AFTN CONVECTION WILL BE
VERY TOUGH TO COME BY AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE FORCING ALOFT...AND A
STRONG SUBSIDENT CAP TO SURFACE PARCELS. LATE IN THE PERIOD HEIGHTS
MAY BEGIN TO FALL...BUT THE GUIDANCE TENDS TO BE TOO QUICK TO BREAK
DOWN THESE TYPES OF RIDGES SO WILL TONE DOWN INHERITED POP TO
SCHC/SILENT AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED...WITH ONLY ISOLATED/NONE THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST
FEW HOURS IN BRINGING A BATCH OF CONVECTION INTO THE ILM AREA. STILL
NOTHING ON THE RADAR SO CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS RATHER LOW.
LIKEWISE...NOT MUCH ON SATELLITE EITHER AT THIS POINT. THIS MOISTURE
WILL WAVE NORTH TODAY...WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE RESULTANT WILL MOVE SLOWLY INLAND
TODAY...WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION SPREADING WESTWARD. LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY AND
MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 607 AM FRIDAY...SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES
WITH S-SW WINDS AND A WEAK BERMUDA ESE SWELL...ACCOMPANIED BY
GUSTS NEAR 20 KT INSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. A FEW
TSTMS MAY DRIFT NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON FAVORED OVER THE NC
WATERS N OF CAPE FEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE ALOFT. SEAS TODAY
WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE WIND PORTION OF THE SPECTRUM WITH S WAVES
2-3 FEET EVERY 5-6 SECONDS. THE ESE BERMUDA WAVE ENERGY 1-2 FEET
EVERY 8-9 SECONDS MAY MOSTLY BE MASKED BY THE MODERATE WIND-SEAS.
20 KT GUSTS SHOULD BE EXPECTED NEAR SHORE BETWEEN 3PM-7PM. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN/NEAR TSTMS.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...W/SW WINDS AROUND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
SATURDAY WILL TRANSITION TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUNDAY...AND
EVENTUALLY W/NW LATE SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH DROPS
INTO THE LOCAL WATERS. WIND SPEEDS ON SATURDAY WILL BE 15-20
KTS...THE HIGHEST DURING THE WKND...AND WILL PUSH WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO
3-4 FT. WHILE A SE GROUND SWELL WILL BE PRESENT...THE SPECTRUM WILL
BE MOSTLY CONTROLLED BY THE WIND WAVES ON SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY...AS
THE WINDS EASE AND BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE NW...SPEEDS WILL DROP TO
LESS THAN 10 KTS REGARDLESS OF DIRECTION. THIS WILL LEAVE THE SWELL
AS THE PREDOMINANT WAVE GROUP...AND SEAS WILL DROP TO 1 - 3FT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...WEAK FRONT/TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE AND LIFT
NORTH EARLY MONDAY. THIS LEAVES LIGHT WINDS THE FIRST PART OF
MONDAY...BUT AS BERMUDA HIGH RE-ASSERTS ITSELF THE DIRECTION WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS. ON TUESDAY...BERMUDA
HIGH WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ONCE AGAIN...AND SW WINDS WILL BE
PRESENT ACROSS THE WATERS AT 10-15 KTS. SEAS EARLY MONDAY WILL BE 1-
3 FT...BUT WILL INCREASE SLOWLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...BECOMING 3-4 FT
LATE TUESDAY AS THE SW WIND WAVE AMPLIFIES.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43
MARINE...MJC/JDW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
607 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT AND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL
CREATE WARMING TEMPS AND ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTIVE CHANCES TODAY.
VERY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD EXCEED 100 DEGREES EACH
AFTERNOON. SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP LATE NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 607 AM FRIDAY...PICTURES FROM SPACE IN THE VAPOR CHANNEL
SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE EXPANDING NORTHWARD OVER THE SE AND THE
CAROLINAS. APPRECIABLE COLUMN MOISTURE OF GULF ORIGIN CAUGHT IN
THIS RIDGE IS CIRCULATING NORTH AND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING.
ONE FEATURE OF NOTE CAN BE DISCERNED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA WHERE
ENHANCED MOISTURE IS POOLED THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV THAT
IS DRAWING TOWARD CAPE FEAR. THE LATEST HRRR AND NSSL WRF MODEL
DEPICTIONS HANDLE THIS FEATURE AS A CONVECTIVE CATALYST WHICH IS
FEASIBLE AS THERE IS ALREADY SIMILAR HISTORY WITH THE IMPULSE AS
EARLIER CONVECTION OVER THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. INTERACTION
WITH A ROBUST SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY AND TIMING MIGRATION OF THE
PERTURBATION IMPLIES ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON PRIMARILY OVER OUR NORTH CAROLINA ZONES. SUBSIDENCE IN
WAKE OF THIS FEATURE IS SET TO OVERSPREAD NE SC AND SE NC IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON. THE SUBSIDENT REGION IS PRESENTLY EVIDENT IN VAPOR
MOVIES ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA. THE
WEAK COLUMN WINDS AND LOW SHEAR PARAMETERS SHOULD HINDER THE
SEVERE THREAT...BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
STRONG LOW-LEVEL HEATING.
MAXIMUMS TODAY A DEGREE OR TWO HOTTER THAN YESTERDAY MOST AREAS
OUTSIDE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION...UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S MOST
LOCATIONS WITH APPARENT TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER MILD OVERNIGHT ANTICIPATED...72-76 FOR
MINIMUMS EARLY SATURDAY...MILDEST NEAR THE SEA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...
DANGEROUS HEAT THIS WEEKEND...
THE WORD FOR THE WEEKEND IS "HOT" - AS UPPER RIDGE BLOSSOMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST AND BERMUDA HIGH SETS UP OFFSHORE. SATURDAY WILL BE
EXTREMELY HOT ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA AS 850MB TEMPS AROUND 20C
COMBINE WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO WARM THE ENTIRE AREA...EVEN TO THE
BEACHES...TO 90 DEGREES OR HIGHER. MANY LOCATIONS WILL TOUCH 95
SATURDAY...WITH THE HOTTEST SPOTS REACHING 98. THESE TEMPS WILL
COMBINE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 60S AND LOW 70S TO CREATE HEAT
INDEX VALUES OF 100-103 DEGREES - BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT
DANGEROUS NONETHELESS. A HEAT-RELATED SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED TO OUTLINE
THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPCOMING HEAT WAVE. EVEN WITH THE
CONSIDERABLE HEAT AND INSTABILITY SATURDAY...EXPECT NO CONVECTION
THANKS TO SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.
SUNDAY IS A BIT OF A TRICKIER FORECAST. AS THE RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST...A SUBTLE WEAKNESS ON THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY WILL
ALLOW A PIECE OF VORT ENERGY TO DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD
INTO THE AREA. HOW FAR THIS FRONT WILL PENETRATE IS THE BIGGEST
QUESTION MARK AS THE RIDGE ALMOST ALWAYS TENDS TO WIN OUT...BUT WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND THE GUIDANCE REMAINING
CERTAIN WITH ITS WIND SHIFT...HAVE TO AGREE WITH INHERITED AND SHOW
A WIND SHIFT INTO THE NC ZONES OF THE ILM CWA. THERE IS LITTLE COOL
ADVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE...SO THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS WILL BE
MORE CAUSED BY ISOLATED CONVECTION AND SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER
SUNDAY. ACROSS SC...DO NOT EXPECT ANY CHANGE IN AIR MASS...AND TEMPS
ONCE AGAIN WILL CLIMB TO 95-98 INLAND...90-93 AT THE COAST. HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB ABOVE 100 DEGREES...SAVE THE FAR
NE COUNTIES OF THE AREA...BUT ARE AGAIN FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST
BELOW HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL DO LITTLE TO EASE THE HEAT...AND REAL MID-
SUMMER HUMID MINS IN THE MID TO UPR 70S ARE FORECAST BOTH NIGHTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON SEVERAL
DAYS. LARGE UPPER RIDGE STAYS OVER THE AREA WHILE BERMUDA HIGH
BECOMES ANCHORED OFFSHORE. HIGH THICKNESSES COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT
WARM/MOIST RETURN FLOW IN AN ALREADY HOT ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE
DANGEROUS HEAT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. 500MB HEIGHTS
ACTUALLY CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHEN SOME 593DM BEGIN
TO SHOW UP IN THE VICINITY...CORRELATING WITH 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING
TOWARDS 22C. ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON ITS NEAR-RECORD 850MB TEMPS
(THANKFULLY)...BUT SEVERAL DAYS OF 20-22C 850MB TEMPS COMBINED WITH
VERY WARM MINS AND A CONTINUED STAGNANT AIRMASS WILL DRIVE HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 90S EVERY DAY...AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPR 70S. IN
FACT...THIS SEEMS LIKE AN AIR MASS THAT WILL SUPPORT A FEW 100+
DEGREE AIR-TEMPERATURE READINGS NEXT WEEK INLAND...AS WELL AS
SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE BEACH NOT FALLING BELOW 80 AT NIGHT.
THE COMBINATION OF THE VERY HOT TEMPS AND HIGH DEWPOINT AIR THANKS
TO CONTINUED MOIST ADVECTION AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH...WILL DRIVE
HEAT INDEX VALUES TO WELL OVER 100 DEGREES...AND IT IS LOOKING MORE
LIKELY THAT HEAT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR A LARGE PORTION OF
THE AREA SEVERAL DAYS NEXT WEEK. THE HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
BE INLAND FROM THE COAST...BUT EVEN NEAR THE BEACHES IT WILL FEEL
LIKE 100 DEGREES MOST AFTNS. THIS IS TRUE SUMMER HEAT...AND WE ASK
YOU TO REFER TO THE HEAT SPS FOR MORE INFORMATION.
EVEN THOUGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE HIGH...AFTN CONVECTION WILL BE
VERY TOUGH TO COME BY AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE FORCING ALOFT...AND A
STRONG SUBSIDENT CAP TO SURFACE PARCELS. LATE IN THE PERIOD HEIGHTS
MAY BEGIN TO FALL...BUT THE GUIDANCE TENDS TO BE TOO QUICK TO BREAK
DOWN THESE TYPES OF RIDGES SO WILL TONE DOWN INHERITED POP TO
SCHC/SILENT AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED...WITH ONLY ISOLATED/NONE THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE DUE TO LOW CIGS OVERNIGHT INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH VCSH ALONG THE COAST TOWARDS MORNING.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH VCSH/VCTS ON THURSDAY.
VFR PREVAILS TONIGHT WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS. INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND FEW/SCT MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS TO LINGER ABOUT THE AREA. AS A RESULT...ANTICIPATE CLOUD
COVER TO INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...WILL NOT ENTIRELY RULE
OUT PATCHY FOG BEFORE DAYBREAK. INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR -SHRA/-TSRA EARLY ALONG THE
COAST...EVENTUALLY SPREADING TO THE INLAND AREAS BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO PERIODS OF LOW CIGS OR ANY HEAVY
DOWNPOUR. OTHERWISE...VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
AOB 12 KTS...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY
LATE EVENING...ANY CONVECTION WILL TAPER OFF AND VFR WILL PREVAIL
WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY AND
MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 607 AM FRIDAY...SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES
WITH S-SW WINDS AND A WEAK BERMUDA ESE SWELL...ACCOMPANIED BY
GUSTS NEAR 20 KT INSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. A FEW
TSTMS MAY DRIFT NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON FAVORED OVER THE NC
WATERS N OF CAPE FEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE ALOFT. SEAS TODAY
WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE WIND PORTION OF THE SPECTRUM WITH S WAVES
2-3 FEET EVERY 5-6 SECONDS. THE ESE BERMUDA WAVE ENERGY 1-2 FEET
EVERY 8-9 SECONDS MAY MOSTLY BE MASKED BY THE MODERATE WIND-SEAS.
20 KT GUSTS SHOULD BE EXPECTED NEAR SHORE BETWEEN 3PM-7PM. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN/NEAR TSTMS.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...W/SW WINDS AROUND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
SATURDAY WILL TRANSITION TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUNDAY...AND
EVENTUALLY W/NW LATE SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH DROPS
INTO THE LOCAL WATERS. WIND SPEEDS ON SATURDAY WILL BE 15-20
KTS...THE HIGHEST DURING THE WKND...AND WILL PUSH WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO
3-4 FT. WHILE A SE GROUND SWELL WILL BE PRESENT...THE SPECTRUM WILL
BE MOSTLY CONTROLLED BY THE WIND WAVES ON SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY...AS
THE WINDS EASE AND BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE NW...SPEEDS WILL DROP TO
LESS THAN 10 KTS REGARDLESS OF DIRECTION. THIS WILL LEAVE THE SWELL
AS THE PREDOMINANT WAVE GROUP...AND SEAS WILL DROP TO 1 - 3FT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...WEAK FRONT/TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE AND LIFT
NORTH EARLY MONDAY. THIS LEAVES LIGHT WINDS THE FIRST PART OF
MONDAY...BUT AS BERMUDA HIGH RE-ASSERTS ITSELF THE DIRECTION WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS. ON TUESDAY...BERMUDA
HIGH WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ONCE AGAIN...AND SW WINDS WILL BE
PRESENT ACROSS THE WATERS AT 10-15 KTS. SEAS EARLY MONDAY WILL BE 1-
3 FT...BUT WILL INCREASE SLOWLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...BECOMING 3-4 FT
LATE TUESDAY AS THE SW WIND WAVE AMPLIFIES.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MJC
MARINE...MJC/JDW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
957 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
A NEW AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD T-STORMS BETWEEN BISMARCK AND
COOPERSTOWN...MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST. A FEW OTHER SMALL ECHOES
NORTHEAST OF THERE INTO FAR NW MN. WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOWER POPS
IN THIS BAND THRU THE NIGHT PER PREV FCST. NO CHANGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. THE LATEST CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER IN
DEVELOPING CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE HRRR STILL
DEVELOPS CONVECTION BY 3 PM.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...EXPECT AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COLD FRONT. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE WITH HAIL/WIND...BUT THE LACK OF STRONGER DEEP
LAYERED SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE. THERE WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR STRONGER/PERSISTENT STORMS GIVEN PWATS CLOSE
TO 1.5 INCHES. THE CONVECTION SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST AND
SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH ANY SEVERE THREAT GONE BY 6Z WITH A FAIRLY
WEAK LLJ.
ON SUNDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD AID CONVECTION MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE WILL
BE SOME INSTABILITY AND A BIT MORE SHEAR THAN TODAY...AND THERE IS
A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THE SOUTH.
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...THE CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF THE
SOUTH WITH STABLE/COOLER AIR BUILDING IN.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
ON MONDAY...EXPECT A DRY AND COOL DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.
FOR TUE...RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN IN THE WEST AND SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL MOVE IN BY AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS OR STORMS AFFECTING THE WEST...BUT DEEPER
INSTABILITY/MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR
AREA.
FOR WED THROUGH SAT...THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH A ZONAL
BECOMING NW FLOW PATTER ALOFT AND A CENTRAL PLAINS LOW GENERATING
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA TUE NIGHT INTO
WED. MODELS DIVERGE BEYOND THIS SYSTEM...WITH GFS SHOWING A MORE
AMPLIFIED SW RIDGE PROVIDING A BREAK IN ACTIVITY ON THU. GFS THEN
SHOWS A TRANSITION TO SW FLOW ALOFT AND MORE ACTIVITY DURING THE
END OF THE WEEK. OVERALL MAIN THEME IS AN ACTIVE WEEK WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF BREAKS DUE TO MODEL INCONSISTENCIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 713 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE PD. CONVECTION HAS GREATLY
DIMINISHED. STILL WILL HAVE VCSH MENTION IN FARGO THIS EVENING BUT
CHANCES OF ANY PRECIP IMPACTING TAF SITES SEEMS QUITE LOW NOW.
MOST OF THE SUNDAY SHOWERS SHOULD STAY JUST SOUTH OF FARGO. EXPECT
A LIGHT SOUTH WIND AHD OF FRONT TURNING LIGHT NORTHWEST BEHIND IT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/SPEICHER
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
717 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 713 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
MOST OF THE TSTMS HAVE FALLEN APART...WITH ONE AREA OF MOSTLY
SHOWERS AROUND VALLEY CITY AND ANOTHER EXITING INTO MANITOBA FROM
PEMBINA. IN BETWEEN NOTHING. INSTABILITY AXIS IS STILL HERE PER
SPC WITH 1500 J/KG BUT SHEAR IS QUITE WEAK. AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LIMPS EAST OVERNIGHT WILL STILL HAVE RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS OR
MAYBE T-STORM BUT HRRR HAS DONE A GOOD IN SHOWING MOST ACTIVITY
GOING TO ISOLATED TONIGHT. TOWARD SUNRISE SUNDAY...NEXT SFC LOW
MOVINGES INTO SOUTH DAKOTA AND AREA OF GENERAL SHOWERS DOES SPREAD
ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER AND THIS AREA OF SHOWERS DOES LOOK TO
SPREAD EAST THRU FAR SE ND/WCNTRL MN THRU SUNDAY. TWEEKED POPS
TONIGHT TO GO DRY DVL NORTH AND WEST AND REDUCE POPS IN THE
FRONTAL ZONE TO 20-30.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. THE LATEST CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER IN
DEVELOPING CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE HRRR STILL
DEVELOPS CONVECTION BY 3 PM.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...EXPECT AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COLD FRONT. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE WITH HAIL/WIND...BUT THE LACK OF STRONGER DEEP
LAYERED SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE. THERE WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR STRONGER/PERSISTENT STORMS GIVEN PWATS CLOSE
TO 1.5 INCHES. THE CONVECTION SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST AND
SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH ANY SEVERE THREAT GONE BY 6Z WITH A FAIRLY
WEAK LLJ.
ON SUNDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD AID CONVECTION MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE WILL
BE SOME INSTABILITY AND A BIT MORE SHEAR THAN TODAY...AND THERE IS
A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THE SOUTH.
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...THE CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF THE
SOUTH WITH STABLE/COOLER AIR BUILDING IN.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
ON MONDAY...EXPECT A DRY AND COOL DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.
FOR TUE...RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN IN THE WEST AND SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL MOVE IN BY AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS OR STORMS AFFECTING THE WEST...BUT DEEPER
INSTABILITY/MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR
AREA.
FOR WED THROUGH SAT...THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH A ZONAL
BECOMING NW FLOW PATTER ALOFT AND A CENTRAL PLAINS LOW GENERATING
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA TUE NIGHT INTO
WED. MODELS DIVERGE BEYOND THIS SYSTEM...WITH GFS SHOWING A MORE
AMPLIFIED SW RIDGE PROVIDING A BREAK IN ACTIVITY ON THU. GFS THEN
SHOWS A TRANSITION TO SW FLOW ALOFT AND MORE ACTIVITY DURING THE
END OF THE WEEK. OVERALL MAIN THEME IS AN ACTIVE WEEK WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF BREAKS DUE TO MODEL INCONSISTENCIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 713 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE PD. CONVECTION HAS GREATLY
DIMINISHED. STILL WILL HAVE VCSH MENTION IN FARGO THIS EVENING BUT
CHANCES OF ANY PRECIP IMPACTING TAF SITES SEEMS QUITE LOW NOW.
MOST OF THE SUNDAY SHOWERS SHOULD STAY JUST SOUTH OF FARGO. EXPECT
A LIGHT SOUTH WIND AHD OF FRONT TURNING LIGHT NORTHWEST BEHIND IT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/SPEICHER
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
302 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015
MAIN HIGHLIGHT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY CONTINUES
TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD
OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
LATEST SUITE OF SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH THE SURFACE ANALYSIS
PINPOINTS THE COLD FRONT FROM NEAR CYBU/NIPAWIN SASKATCHEWAN TO
CYQR/REGINA SASKATCHEWAN...STRETCHING SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL
MONTANA...JUST WEST OF GLASGOW. A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH WAS LOCATED
FROM NEAR WOLF POINT TO JORDAN MONTANA. LINE OF CUMULUS CLOUDS
DEVELOPING SOUTH INTO CROSBY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH A PATCHY
CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WITH DEWPOINTS TO NEAR 60F COMMON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DEEP
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LACKING...BUT SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE
OF 2000 J/KG WITH 30KT TO 35KT 0-6KM SHEAR ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. THE LATEST HRRR MAINTAINS ISOLATED CONVECTION INITIATING BETWEEN
21Z AND 22Z IN THE NORTHWEST WITH SOME SEMBLANCE OF A LINE
DEVELOPING FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE PRE FRONTAL TROUGH BY 23Z.
WOULD APPEAR THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL GENERATE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AS IT MOVES ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WITH CAPE/SHEAR ALIGNMENT AND COLD
FRONTAL/PRE TROUGH TIMING LATE THIS AFTERNOON...COULD SEE A COUPLE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING WIDESPREAD AT THIS
TIME. THE GFS IS ABOUT 3 TO 5 HOURS FASTER THAN THE NAM12 SATURDAY
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER
DESPITE TIMING DIFFERENCES...THE MAIN MESSAGE OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT SATURDAY WITH
A FEW POSSIBLY SEVERE...REMAINS ON TRACK.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A MARGINAL RISK
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY EVENING ALONG A
SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT (SEE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION
ABOVE).
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES GENERATING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.
AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION ABOVE...A SOUTHEASTWARD
MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF MY CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST. A FEW SEVERE
STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN 1-2K J/KG OF MUCAPE AND 40KTS
OF 0-6KM SHEAR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE MAINLY
ACROSS MY SOUTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE FRONT
STALLS AND ENERGY ALOFT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. INSTABILITY
DECREASES AFTER 06Z SUNDAY MORNING AND SO WILL THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER.
LULL IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTH INTO NORTH DAKOTA. THEREAFTER A SERIES OF EMBEDDED
WAVES MOVING EAST THROUGH THE REGION COUPLED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
JET ALOFT WILL SEE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK. OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
LOW FOR MID-JUNE AS THE JET ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A COOLER AIRMASS
TO NUDGE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK
MAINLY IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015
VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER KISN BY 03Z AND
SLOWLY PROPAGATE INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL VEER FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION A VCTS IN ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KJMS WHICH WILL NOT HAVE A
THREAT UNTIL AFTER 18Z SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BECOME WIDESPREAD...RATHER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT TIMES.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1245 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015
LATEST SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS SFC BASED CIN ERODING ACROSS
THE FAR WEST AND NORTHWEST...WITH CAPE BETWEEN 1000 AND 1800 J/KG.
SURFACE COLD FRONT SLICING THROUGH YORKTON SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHWEST
TO JUST WEST OF GLASGOW. A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH WAS NOTED JUST EAST
OF GLASGOW SOUTH TO JORDAN MONTANA. LATEST HRRR STILL SHOWS ISOLATED
CONVECTION INITIATING OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 21Z AND
22Z...THEN DEVELOPING FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE PRE FRONTAL TROUGH
BUT REMAINING ISOLATED THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CAPE MENTIONED ABOVE ALONG WITH BULK SHEAR OF
30KT TO 35KT AWAITING THE FRONTAL APPROACH. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR CONVECTION FORECAST...OTHERWISE THE REST
OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 818 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015
THE 11Z HRRR CONTINUES WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING BETWEEN
21Z AND 00Z SATURDAY IN THE WEST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL. LATEST
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MAXIMUM 3HR PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN...WEAKLY STRETCHING BACK INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS IS OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.
LIGHTNING PER REGIONAL AND CANADIAN RADAR REMAINS CLOSEST TO THE
MAX PRESSURE FALLS OVER SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN...NEAR YORKTON
SASKATCHEWAN. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD THE OVERALL TREND FOLLOWING
THE HRRR HANDLED WELL IN THE GRIDDED DATA WELL AND WILL CONTINUE
WITH THIS IDEA. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015
EXPANDED THE MENTION OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL OF
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 85 AFTER
21 UTC AS THE 09 AND 10 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS DEVELOP ISOLATED
CONVECTION ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME
STORMS POSSIBLY STRONG TO SEVERE. SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE
AREA OF WESTERN ND IN MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...MAINLY
HIGHLIGHTING THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. MODELS
REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW OVER
WESTERN CANADA SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
REACHES WEST CENTRAL MANITOBA BY 00Z SAT WITH COLD FRONT JUST
ENTERING NORTHWEST ND. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH BAND OF SURFACE BASED CAPE FROM
500-1000 J/KG DEVELOPING AHEAD OF FRONT ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
STRONGEST 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE DISPLACED FARTHER WEST OF THE
BEST CAPE...OVER MONTANA CLOSER TO 100 KT 250MB JET STREAK...THOUGH
WE STILL SEE VALUES OF 30-40 KTS ENTERING WESTERN ND BY 00Z SAT.
BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING BEFORE CONVECTION BECOMES TOO ELEVATED. BY 12Z SAT...COLD
FRONT IS APPROACHING CENTRAL ND...ROUGHLY BETWEEN DICKINSON AND
BISMARCK.
FOR THIS MORNING...HAVE KEPT MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN THE
FORECAST WITH MOST OBS SHOWING VERY LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WITH A
COUPLE LOCATIONS REPORTING SOME LOWER VISIBILITY. KBIS ASOS WAS
BRIEFLY DOWN TO 4SM IN BR.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015
MARGINAL SEVERE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
SPC HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF A SLOWLY
PROPAGATING COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. OVERALL...ONLY MODEST
DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH ML CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS AROUND 25-30 KTS...AS GREATER SHEAR VALUES LARGELY
REMAIN BEHIND THE FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
WINDS. ANOTHER CAVEAT LIMITING THE THREAT IS POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER
FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION THAT MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING
WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET...REDUCING DAYTIME HEATING. THUS...A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS NOT
FAVORED AT THIS TIME. THEREAFTER...QUASI-ZONAL FLOW IS FAVORED BY
THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES SUNDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK...SUPPORTIVE OF CLIMATOLOGICAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER
WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FAST UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO IMPACT
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015
VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER KISN BY 03Z AND
SLOWLY PROPAGATE INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL VEER FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION A VCTS IN ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KJMS WHICH WILL NOT HAVE A
THREAT UNTIL AFTER 18Z SATURDAY. PRECIPIATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BECOME WIDESPREAD...RATHER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT TIMES.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
831 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 818 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015
THE 11Z HRRR CONTINUES WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING BETWEEN
21Z AND 00Z SATURDAY IN THE WEST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL. LATEST
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MAXIMUM 3HR PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN...WEAKLY STRETCHING BACK INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS IS OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.
LIGHTNING PER REGIONAL AND CANADIAN RADAR REMAINS CLOSEST TO THE
MAX PRESSURE FALLS OVER SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN...NEAR YORKTON
SASKATCHEWAN. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD THE OVERALL TREND FOLLOWING
THE HRRR HANDLED WELL IN THE GRIDDED DATA WELL AND WILL CONTINUE
WITH THIS IDEA. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015
EXPANDED THE MENTION OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL OF
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 85 AFTER
21 UTC AS THE 09 AND 10 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS DEVELOP ISOLATED
CONVECTION ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME
STORMS POSSIBLY STRONG TO SEVERE. SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE
AREA OF WESTERN ND IN MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...MAINLY
HIGHLIGHTING THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. MODELS
REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW OVER
WESTERN CANADA SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
REACHES WEST CENTRAL MANITOBA BY 00Z SAT WITH COLD FRONT JUST
ENTERING NORTHWEST ND. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH BAND OF SURFACE BASED CAPE FROM
500-1000 J/KG DEVELOPING AHEAD OF FRONT ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
STRONGEST 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE DISPLACED FARTHER WEST OF THE
BEST CAPE...OVER MONTANA CLOSER TO 100 KT 250MB JET STREAK...THOUGH
WE STILL SEE VALUES OF 30-40 KTS ENTERING WESTERN ND BY 00Z SAT.
BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING BEFORE CONVECTION BECOMES TOO ELEVATED. BY 12Z SAT...COLD
FRONT IS APPROACHING CENTRAL ND...ROUGHLY BETWEEN DICKINSON AND
BISMARCK.
FOR THIS MORNING...HAVE KEPT MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN THE
FORECAST WITH MOST OBS SHOWING VERY LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WITH A
COUPLE LOCATIONS REPORTING SOME LOWER VISIBILITY. KBIS ASOS WAS
BRIEFLY DOWN TO 4SM IN BR.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015
MARGINAL SEVERE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
SPC HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF A SLOWLY
PROPAGATING COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. OVERALL...ONLY MODEST
DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH ML CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS AROUND 25-30 KTS...AS GREATER SHEAR VALUES LARGELY
REMAIN BEHIND THE FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
WINDS. ANOTHER CAVEAT LIMITING THE THREAT IS POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER
FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION THAT MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING
WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET...REDUCING DAYTIME HEATING. THUS...A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS NOT
FAVORED AT THIS TIME. THEREAFTER...QUASI-ZONAL FLOW IS FAVORED BY
THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES SUNDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK...SUPPORTIVE OF CLIMATOLOGICAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER
WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FAST UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO IMPACT
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AFTER MORNING SHALLOW FOG BURNS OFF. LOW CLOUDS NEAR KDIK
SHOW DIMINISHING TREND THE LAST COUPLE HOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECT
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS FRIDAY MORNING AT ALL LOCATIONS. THERE
IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO NORTHWEST ND AROUND 00Z SAT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
646 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015
EXPANDED THE MENTION OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL OF
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 85 AFTER
21 UTC AS THE 09 AND 10 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS DEVELOP ISOLATED
CONVECTION ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME
STORMS POSSIBLY STRONG TO SEVERE. SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE
AREA OF WESTERN ND IN MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...MAINLY
HIGHLIGHTING THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. MODELS
REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW OVER
WESTERN CANADA SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
REACHES WEST CENTRAL MANITOBA BY 00Z SAT WITH COLD FRONT JUST
ENTERING NORTHWEST ND. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH BAND OF SURFACE BASED CAPE FROM
500-1000 J/KG DEVELOPING AHEAD OF FRONT ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
STRONGEST 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE DISPLACED FARTHER WEST OF THE
BEST CAPE...OVER MONTANA CLOSER TO 100 KT 250MB JET STREAK...THOUGH
WE STILL SEE VALUES OF 30-40 KTS ENTERING WESTERN ND BY 00Z SAT.
BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING BEFORE CONVECTION BECOMES TOO ELEVATED. BY 12Z SAT...COLD
FRONT IS APPROACHING CENTRAL ND...ROUGHLY BETWEEN DICKINSON AND
BISMARCK.
FOR THIS MORNING...HAVE KEPT MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN THE
FORECAST WITH MOST OBS SHOWING VERY LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WITH A
COUPLE LOCATIONS REPORTING SOME LOWER VISIBILITY. KBIS ASOS WAS
BRIEFLY DOWN TO 4SM IN BR.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015
MARGINAL SEVERE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
SPC HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF A SLOWLY
PROPAGATING COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. OVERALL...ONLY MODEST
DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH ML CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS AROUND 25-30 KTS...AS GREATER SHEAR VALUES LARGELY
REMAIN BEHIND THE FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
WINDS. ANOTHER CAVEAT LIMITING THE THREAT IS POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER
FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION THAT MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING
WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET...REDUCING DAYTIME HEATING. THUS...A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS NOT
FAVORED AT THIS TIME. THEREAFTER...QUASI-ZONAL FLOW IS FAVORED BY
THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES SUNDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK...SUPPORTIVE OF CLIMATOLOGICAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER
WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FAST UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO IMPACT
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AFTER MORNING SHALLOW FOG BURNS OFF. LOW CLOUDS NEAR KDIK
SHOW DIMINISHING TREND THE LAST COUPLE HOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECT
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS FRIDAY MORNING AT ALL LOCATIONS. THERE
IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO NORTHWEST ND AROUND 00Z SAT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1257 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015
FORECAST ELEMENTS WERE MOSTLY ON TRACK. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
SKY COVER OVERNIGHT BASED ON ASOS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY.
POPULATED SKY GRIDS WITH CONSSHORT GUIDANCE WHICH INITIALIZED WELL
AND SHOWED OVERALL DECREASING TREND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
ND WHERE CLOUDS WERE MOST PREVALENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 926 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015
ONLY SIGNIFICANT UPDATE THIS EVENING WAS TO RAISE SKY COVER OVER
THE FAR SOUTHWEST...MAINLY BEACH AND MEDORA SOUTH TO BOWMAN AND
HETTINGER. 23Z ITERATION OF THE HRRR INDICATES IFR CEILINGS
APPROACHING THE FAR SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT BUT THEN BREAKS APART
AS LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES. FOR NOW JUST BUMPED UP SKY COVER
THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE SCATTERING OUT. OVERNIGHT SHIFT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR AGAIN. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015
RADAR INDICATED JUST A COUPLE POPCORN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...DIMINISHING DURING THE PAST HOUR. COULD BE ONE OR TWO
MORE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BUT BY AND LARGE...WE WILL BE DRY
TONIGHT AND WILL KEEP OUR PREVIOUS DRY FORECAST. CLOUDS SHOULD
ALSO DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING...HOLDING ON LONGER OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR AREA. SUBTLE SLOW MOVING SHORT WAVE
SLIDING THROUGH THE FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING MODEST CYCLONIC FLOW
TO OUR AREA WITH A COUPLE VERY SMALL SHOWERS NOTED OVER THE
REGION.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN LOW POPS PRIMARILY OVER THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA AS
WEAK WAVE CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH...THOUGH THIS SHOULD
COME TO AN END BY EARLY THIS EVENING. LATER TONIGHT EXPECT SOME
FOG MAY DEVELOP MAINLY OVER THE FAR SOUTH WHERE AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE.
ON FRIDAY...ANY LINGERING FOG WILL DIMINISH IN THE EARLY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...THE DAY WILL START OUT QUIET AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
QUICKLY PASSES OVER THE AREA. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES BY LATE
AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
NORTHWEST...WITH GREATER STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY COMING FRIDAY
EVENING (SEE LONG TERM DISCUSSION).
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS OUR NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW
CIRCULATING OVER NORTHWESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. A 300MB 100KT JET
STREAK WAS SEEN PUNCHING INTO SOUTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA
WITH PRESSURE FALLS AS FAR EAST AS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST...PUSHING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THAT SAID...THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT AND LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER JET IS FORECAST TO
CLIP NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 00Z SATURDAY. THE LATEST HIRES ARW
WEST AND NMM WEST DEVELOP POCKETS OF CONVECTION FRIDAY EVENING
WEST/NORTHWEST. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS WEST/NORTHWEST SHOW DRY
CONDITIONS IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AS ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS WELL MIXED THROUGH THE EVENING. ALTHOUGH A SHALLOW INVERSION
DEVELOPS WITH SOME DECOUPLING...THIS WILL MOST LIKELY NOT BE DEEP
ENOUGH TO IMPEDE ANY STRONG WINDS ALOFT FROM REACHING THE SURFACE
WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. SURFACE BASE CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG
TRANSITIONING TO MOST UNSTABLE OVERNIGHT STILL YIELDS ROBUST VALUES
OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG. SUFFICIENT SHEAR IN PLACE FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT
WHEN COMBINED WITH CAPE MAY PRODUCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WEST/NORTHWEST. PREVIOUS SHIFT WAS CONCERNED WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL
AND SPC NOW HAS A MARGINAL REGION FOR SEVERE WEATHER...WIND AND HAIL
POTENTIAL...00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. HAVE MENTIONED AN
AREA OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GRIDS 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY. THIS IS ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH TRACKS ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY. THE MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MOVES ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
SATURDAY...HOWEVER...WHEN COMPARING THE GFS AND ECMWF MOST UNSTABLE
CAPE AND SHEAR ALIGNMENTS...BOTH MODELS SHOW THE BEST
INSTABILITY/CAPE VALUES...EVENTUALLY OUTRUNNING THE GREATEST SHEAR
REGION(WEST)...AT SOME POINT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL LIKELY
BE A NARROW TRANSITION ZONE NEAR THE FRONT WHERE ENOUGH ALIGNMENT OF
CAPE/SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING AND AREAL EXTENT OF THIS
AREA...HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
UNTIL THE NEXT SHIFT HAS A CHANCE TO REVISIT IT WITH THE LATEST
DATA. DESPITE THE SURFACE COLD FRONT EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY...A
CYCLONIC/NORTHWEST FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL TRIGGER A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE
DWINDLING SUNDAY EVENING. A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATING THROUGH THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT. A BREAK WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
THURSDAY. TIMING WILL LIKELY CHANGE BUT AGREEMENT WITH AN OVERALL
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVING ABOUT EVERY 24HR TO 36HR PERIOD IS THE MAIN MESSAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LOW CLOUDS NEAR KDIK SHOW DIMINISHING TREND THE LAST
COUPLE HOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS FRIDAY
MORNING AT ALL LOCATIONS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST AND
NORTH AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHWEST ND AROUND 00Z SAT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JNS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JNS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS CHARLESTON WV
752 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA...SOUTH OF A
FRONT. HIGH BUILDS NORTH MONDAY. FRONT BACK IN VICINITY BY
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MADE MAJOR MODIFICATIONS TO PREVIOUS FORECAST TO REMOVE POPS FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH
IN TERMS OF QPF TONIGHT. ONLY THE GFS BRINGS A LOT OF QPF WHICH
BELIEVE IS OVERDONE. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW CLEARING SPREADING FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS ACCORDINGLY.
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DECREASE TO AROUND 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. WITH
WIDESPREAD ANTECEDENT AFTERNOON PCPN...AND DEWPOINTS REBOUNDING
AROUND 70 OR HIGHER...EXPECT A GREAT DEAL OF SATURATION AT THE SFC
AND LOW LEVELS...TO PRODUCE AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS.
AFTERNOON COOLING SHOWERS HELPED TO DECREASE EVENING TEMPERATURES
CONSIDERABLY. AS A CONSEQUENCE...DEWPOINT DEPRESSION IS LOW AT
MANY PLACES. ADJUSTED LOWS TONIGHT AROUND THEIR DEWPOINTS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
NO HUGE CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH UPPER RIDGE IN
PLACE...ALLOWING FOR A WARM...HUMID AIR MASS TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE AREA. MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTH HAVE MOVED EAST...BUT NEW CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE
WARM HUMID ATMOSPHERE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA WHERE MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WERE REALIZED EARLIER
TODAY. ANY STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
AS WITH LAST NIGHT...EXPECT TONIGHT TO BE ANOTHER WARM MUGGY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH DEW POINTS AND PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER LINGERING.
DECIDED TO GO ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHTS LOW TEMPERATURES AS MANY
LOCATIONS THIS MORNING WERE ABOVE YESTERDAYS GUIDANCE FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY EXPECTING LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S ONCE AGAIN.
CONVECTION WILL PICK BACK UP IN COVERAGE AGAIN ON
SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
RIDES OVER THE RIDGE...AND WHERE BETTER MOISTURE WILL EXIST. COULD
BE A FEW STORMS ON THE STRONGER SIDE ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH
MODERATE...30-40 KTS WESTERLY FLOW...THROUGH A RELATIVELY DEEP
LAYER. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE ISSUED BY SPC ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV. FOR THE FORECAST
TOMORROW...INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE EXPECTING BETTER
COVERAGE FROM AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOCKED IN A SOUPY SOGGY PATTERN THIS PERIOD. FACTORS ARE AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SERN CONUS...A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONTWIGGLING EITHER SIDE OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE NEAR THE SERN
EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES...AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
DEEP S.
WEAK RIPPLES IN THE FLOW ALOFT RIDE N BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH ANDTHE
RIDGE OVER THE SE...AND THEN TURN EWD ALONG THE BOTTOM OF THE
WESTERLIES. MOST NOTABLY...MODELS PICK UP ON ONE ORIGINATING FROM
THE S CLOSER TO THE NEAR TERM...SKIRTING NRN PORTIONS OF THE FCST
AREA SUN NT. OTHER WEAK RIPPLES KEEP COMING FROM FARTHER W ALONG
THE SRN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES...WHICH EXTEND DUE W ALL THE WAY TO
THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE PERIOD. THE MOST NOTABLE OF THESE IS PROGGED TO
SKIRT NRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON TUE. ANOTHER MAY FOLLOW TUE
NT....INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THE BOTTOM LINE IS THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE MOST RAIN IS ACROSS
NRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WITH A LESSER CHANCE S.
THE SLIGHT RISK UP N FOR MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING REFLECTS
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS OUT AHEAD OF THE S/W TROUGH RIDING ALONG
THE BOTTOM OF THE WESTERLIES WHICH CROSSES THE FCST AREA ON TUE.
BLENDED IN THE MET FOR LOWS SUN NT AND THE MET AND MAV FOR HIGHS
ON MON FOR MINOR CHANGES ON BOTH. HAVE THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY
SLIGHTLY LOWER ON HIGHS MON TO REFLECT MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN
THERE. STAYED WITH PREVIOUS FOR LOWS MON NT AND HIGHS TUE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE ECMWF SHOWS A CONTINUATION OF THE BATTLE BETWEEN THE
SOUTHEAST RIDGE AND THE FRONTAL ZONE POSITIONED AT THE BOTTOM OF
THE WESTERLIES. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE DEEP S RIDES NWD AND
THEN TURNS EWD OVER TOP OF THE SE CONUS RIDGE...CROSSING OUR FCST
AREA FRI INTO SAT. THE SRN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES REMAINS W TO E
ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE CONUS...WITH ADDITIONAL RIPPLES MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THE GFS SHOWS THE DEEP S TROUGH MOVING UP AND OVER THE AREA
FASTER...CROSSING THE FCST AREA THU INTO THU NT. HOWEVER...A
SECOND ONE FORMS AND THEN LIFTS NWD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD...NEXT WEEKEND. MOST NOTABLY...THE GFS
BRINGS A LARGE NRN STREAM TROUGH ACROSS ERN CANADA THU NT BEHIND
THE SRN STREAM FEATURE IT BRINGS ACROSS ON THU. IN ITS
WAKE...ENOUGH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR PUSH SWD TO GIVE RISE TO A
BREAK IN THE WEATHER FRI INTO SAT.
IN THE MEANTIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE
INTO WED...BUT LEFT LIKELY POPS WED IN LIGHT OF CONTINUITY AND
ISC. ALSO LEFT THE WATER THREAT IN THE HWO FOR NEXT WEEK AS THE
OVERALL SET UP IS STILL REFLECTED IN THE LATEST MODEL SOLNS.
WITH GROWING UNCERTAINTY IN TIME...WPC BEGINS WITH HIGH POPS THAT
THEN FADE WITH TIME...AND THIS PACKAGE LARGELY REFLECTS THAT
THINKING.
KEPT TEMPERATURES MAINLY BETWEEN THE MEX AND WPC.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PROVIDED EXTRA MOISTURE TO THE
SFC. MODELS INDICATE DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 DEGREES WIDESPREAD ACROSS
THE LOWLANDS AND IN THE MID 60S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOW AREAS OF CLEARING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH...AND KY
SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO OUR AREA. WITH HIGH HUMIDITY...EXPECT
SATURATION AT THE SFC OR LOW LEVELS TO PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG OR LOW
STRATUS AT MOST SITES. CODED IFR CONDITIONS STARTING AT 09Z...BUT
CONDITIONS COULD DETERIORATE EARLIER THAN EXPECTED. BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS ARE MARGINAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT UNDER CLEAR SKIES. THE NAM
AND THE RAP MODELS DROP WIND FROM 15 TO 5 KNOTS BY 09Z.
THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE THAT A SHOWER OR TWO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT IF THEY WILL HIT
AN AIRPORT SITE. THEREFORE...KEPT SHRA AND TSRA OR VCTS OUT OF TAF
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS AT BKW PER RADAR
IMAGES.
ANY FOG OR LOW STRATUS SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AROUND 12Z SUNDAY
WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID SUNDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE SUNDAY...AN THE HEAT AND
SMALL DISTURBANCES IN THE MID LEVELS COULD TRIGGER CONVECTION ONCE
AGAIN MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SOME STORMS
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ALONG
THEIR PATH.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND INTENSITY OF FOG COULD VARY FROM
FORECAST AND WILL DEPEND ON SKIES CLEARING.
.AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ/SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...JSH/TRM
AVIATION...ARJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
444 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT WILL
STALL ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO SATURDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS UNTIL 9
PM. FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION IS MAKING GOOD EASTWARD PROGRESS WITH
STRONG WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. HIGH DCAPE OF NEARLY 1300
J/KT REMAINS IN PLACE EAST OF THE LINE OF STORMS.
NEXT WE TURN OUR ATTENTION TO THE AIRMASS RECOVERY THAT IS ONGOING
ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW 70S. ML CAPES
ARE REBOUNDING TO 1500-2000 J/KG WITH SOUTHWESTERLY ON THE SOUTH
SIDE OF THE ELONGATED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TO THE PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING ALONG THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT. LOW LEVEL SHEAR HAS A MAXIMUM IN
THIS AREA WITH NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. SOME
THINGS ARE WORKING AGAINST THIS NEW DEVELOPEMENT...INCLUDING THE
EARLIER CONVECTION AND DECREASING DEEP LAYER SHEER IN THE WAKE OF
THE SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS ACTIVITY BEFORE CANCELLING PORTIONS OF
WATCH 290. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THIS NEW ACTIVITY TO GET GOING
AND SUPPORT WILL START TO WANE AFTER SUNSET. HRRR DOES SHOW THIS
ACTIVITY REACHING NW OHIO AND THEN EXPANDING EASTWARD WHILE
WEAKENING OVERNIGHT. WE DO REMAIN IN THE DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
AREA AND IF AN EAST TO WEST BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS SETS UP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY THEN FLOOD ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED. EXPECTING
THIS TO OCCUR FAR ENOUGH AFTER PEAK HEATING THAT NO FLOOD WATCHES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH AND STALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ON SATURDAY. WE WILL LACK FORCING BUT DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES WILL
REMAIN IN THE SOUTH AND EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON. STORMS OVER
THE WEEKEND WILL BE MORE PULSY IN NATURE BUT ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
BOUNDARY STARTS TO LIFT NORTH ON SUNDAY AND EXPECTING ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH DIURNAL HEATING.
UNFORTUNATELY DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH PW VALUES
INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES AND REMAINING INTO MONDAY. ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. THIS
IS OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IF STORMS ARE TIED TO A BOUNDARY AND
MOVING LITTLE. ANOTHER WAVE WILL TRY TO ROUND THE RIDGE ON MONDAY
AND EXPECTING THAT TO BE THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY FOR
ANY AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN UP UNTIL THEN. WILL ALSO
BE MONITORING FOR A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL OSCILLATE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SEVERAL SHORT
WAVES WILL INTERACT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK CREATING MOVEMENTS IN THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT
SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY ONLY TO RETURN NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY. DEEP
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH THE
FRONT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY ..I AM HESITANT TO REMOVE SHOWERS FROM THE
FORECAST IN ANY LOCATION FOR ANY PERIOD. WHILE IT IS A MORE LIKELY
SCENARIO WE WILL HAVE WINDOWS OF RAIN ON MOST OF THE DAYS DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD THE TIMING OF THESE WINDOWS WILL BE DIFFICULT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM FRONT BETWEEN ERIE AND DUNKIRK. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NRN IL
WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THIS FRONT THIS EVENING AND PUSH THE
FRONT BACK SOUTH ACROSS NRN OHIO WHERE IT WILL STALL AND RESIDE
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE WITH
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN WILL BRIEFLY
BRING VSBYS DOWN UNDER 2 MILES. TIMING WILL BE FROM 18Z THROUGH
PRIMARILY 00Z. SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER STILL POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z
WITH FRONT IN THE VICINITY. HAVE FOCUSED TAFS ON THE MORE INTENSE
ACTIVITY FOR NOW. WILL AMEND AS DETAILS BECOME CLEARER. OTHERWISE
TREND WILL BE FOR LOWER CEILINGS AS THE FRONT SINKS
SOUTHWARD...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR AND EVEN IFR LIKELY. CONDITIONS
WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE SATURDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON-VFR SATURDAY THRU WED WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR LAKE ERIE WILL CREATE VARIABLE CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
LAKE TONIGHT SHIFTING THE WINDS TO A NORTHWEST AND THEN A
NORTHEAST DIRECTION ON SATURDAY. AS THE FRONT PUSHES NORTHWARD AS
A WARM FRONT LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A
MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG NEAR THE FRONT BUT WIND DIRECTION WILL BE DIFFIULT TO
PREDICT AS THE FRONT OSCILLATES NEAR THE LAKE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...GARNET
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...GARNET
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
WEAK STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO FIRE ALONG THE FRONT IN WESTERN CORSON
ALREADY...HOWEVER MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN NORTH
DAKOTA WHERE THERE IS BETTER SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND FLOW ALOFT.
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS IN LINE WITH THIS REALITY...FOCUSING
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION ACROSS THE BORDER IN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
A WEAK WAVE WILL PASS OVERHEAD TONIGHT...FOLLOWING THE NORTH/SOUTH
DAKOTA STATE LINE. ALL THE LATEST RUNS OF THE ARW/NMM/HRRR/ABRWRF
GENERATE CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE DESPITE A LACK OF A
DISCERNIBLE LOW LEVEL JET...AND WILL LIKELY PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR POPS. AS THE WAVE PASSES EAST...SHIFTING THE FRONT
SOUTHWARDS...DAYTIME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WILL RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. THERE WILL BE AROUND 2000 J/KG MLCAPE
AVAILABLE...HOWEVER PROFILES LACK LOW/MID LEVEL SHEAR WITH MAINLY
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT....AND WE ALSO LACK A DISCERNIBLE WAVE ALOFT.
HIGH RES GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS ORGANIZED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...THOUGH GIVEN CAPE...COULD STILL DEVELOP A
SEVERE STORM OR TWO WITH A LOCALIZED WIND/HAIL THREAT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY...AND
PROVIDE FOR MAINLY STABLE/DRY CONDITIONS IN NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FEATURE MAINLY ZONAL FLOW THROUGHOUT
THE LONG TERM PERIOD. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE ONLY SHORTWAVES TO
AFFECT THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WILL SEE A DECENT CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE. MODELS THEN BEGIN TO SHOW BIG
DIFFERENCES IN THE SURFACE PATTERN AS THE GFS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING IN AND KEEPING THE AREA DRY FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF BRINGS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS THEN QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS THEN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A
DECENT POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE
SECOND SHORTWAVE AND A RETURN TO DRIER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. AS
USUAL THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE SUPERBLEND IS SATURATED WITH POPS
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HAVE TRIED TO TEMPER THEM BACK SOME
WHERE THE POTENTIAL IS THERE TO SEE DRY CONDITIONS.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO BE THE RULE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 726 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
TAFS CONTINUE TO BE VFR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEY ALSO CONTINUE
TO CARRY A TREND OF PRECIP MENTION LATER TONIGHT INTO THE DAYTIME
HOURS ON SUNDAY. WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF CONDITIONS BRIEFLY FALL
INTO IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1231 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE HOW FAST THE STRATUS MOVES OUT OF NORTHWEST IOWA AND
ADJACENT AREAS OF SD AND MN TODAY AND HOW QUICKLY THE STRATUS
RETURNS TONIGHT.
CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWS THAT THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS EXTENDS
FROM NEAR MARSHALL MN TO SIOUX FALLS AND THEN TO WEST OF YANKTON. IN
SW MN...THE STRATUS IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH BUT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
SD...THE STRATUS HAS NOT MOVED AT ALL AND IN FACT IS MOVING WESTWARD
A BIT IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY. THE RAP WINDS SHOW THAT THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW IS PARALLEL TO THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS WHICH MEANS VERY LITTLE
MOVEMENT IN SD IN THE NEAR TERM. THIS TREND ACTUALLY CONTINUES
THROUGH THE MORNING AND THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THE EDGE OF THE
STRATUS WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE IN SOUTHEAST SD THROUGH THE MORNING.
ACROSS SW MN...THERE IS ENOUGH OF WIND COMPONENT NORMAL TO THE BACK
EDGE OF THE STRATUS TO ADVECT IT SOUTH TOWARD I90 BY LATE THIS
MORNING. AS A RESULT EXPECT ALL OF NW IA AND NE NEBRASKA AS WELL AS
FAR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA TO REMAIN CLOUDY MUCH OF THE MORNING.
WHAT IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY ERODE THE STRATUS IS THE STRONG JUNE SUN
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR HEATING FROM BELOW AND ENHANCE MIXXING LATE
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRATUS SHOULD BREAK UP MOST
QUICKLY ALONG THE EDGES. SKIES ARE LIKELY TO BECOME ONLY PARTLY
CLOUDY AT BEST IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY AND SOUTH OF HWY 18 IN NW
IOWA. HIGHS TODAY WILL REFLECT THE DIFFERENCE IN CLOUD
COVER...RANGING FROM AROUND 70 IN STORM LAKE TO THE UPPER 70S WEST
OF THE JAMES RIVER.
ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL SWITCH WINDS TO
SOUTHEAST AND BRING THE STRATUS BACK NORTHWARD. BY SUNRISE ON
SATURDAY MUCH OF NW IA WILL BE OVERCAST WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ELSEWHERE. WHILE MUCH OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT LATE TONIGHT
FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO DEVELOP AROUND SIOUX CITY OR YANKTON. LOWS
OVER NIGH WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S ALONG HIGHWAY 14 IN SD AND
MN...TO LOWER 60S IN PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RESUMES FOR MUCH OF THE MID AND LONG TERM
FORECAST AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TREK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AS IS TYPICAL WITH THESE PROGRESSIVE SUMMER
PATTERNS...MODELS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND TRACK.
FOR SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE EMERGING IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LIFTS
NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS WAVE WILL CLIP NORTHWEST
IOWA AND ADJACENT COUNTIES WITH SHOWERS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN HALF...HOWEVER THE GEM REGIONAL SEEMS TO BE
AN OUTLIER BY BRINGING THIS WAVE MUCH FURTHER EAST. ACTIVITY SLOWLY
DRIFTS TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY IS PRETTY
MEAGER...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS POINT. HIGHS
WILL BE SEASONALLY COOL BUT PLEASANT IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY...WITH A BIT MORE
SURFACE HEATING AND MOISTURE INFLUX TO ALLOW MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...MAINLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE BEST SHOT FOR DRY WEATHER AREAWIDE ARRIVES MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS FROM THE NORTH...WHILE
QUASIZONAL UPPER FLOW SPLITS THE ENERGY NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
REGION. WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED POPS FROM ALL BUT SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA WHERE SOME CONVECTION FORMING IN THE HIGH PLAINS TO OUR WEST
MAY CREEP ACROSS OUR BORDER.
MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY ON TUESDAY AS WELL...HOWEVER WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY THROUGH
THE DAY. ALL MODELS PUSH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CARRY IT
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH THE GFS
AND ECMWF...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR STORMS WILL BE IN ACROSS OUR
NORTHWESTERN HALF TUESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THE GEM
CONTINUES TO BE THE OUTLIER...THIS TIME WITH A SOUTHERN ROUTE CLOSER
TO THE SD/NE BORDER.
BEYOND TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS DIFFERENCES BECOME MUCH
GREATER...LEADING TO MUCH HIGHER UNCERTAINTY. WILL LEAVE ALLBLEND
POPS AND TEMPERATURES IN PLACE FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015
MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY BUT
KSUX IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THEM THROUGH THE PERIOD. KHON MAY BE
THE LUCKY SITE WITH MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. KFSD LIKELY TO
SEE SOME VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AS SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CUMULUS DISSIPATES. HOWEVER THE CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
622 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE HOW FAST THE STRATUS MOVES OUT OF NORTHWEST IOWA AND
ADJACENT AREAS OF SD AND MN TODAY AND HOW QUICKLY THE STRATUS
RETURNS TONIGHT.
CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWS THAT THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS EXTENDS
FROM NEAR MARSHALL MN TO SIOUX FALLS AND THEN TO WEST OF YANKTON. IN
SW MN...THE STRATUS IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH BUT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
SD...THE STRATUS HAS NOT MOVED AT ALL AND IN FACT IS MOVING WESTWARD
A BIT IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY. THE RAP WINDS SHOW THAT THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW IS PARALLEL TO THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS WHICH MEANS VERY LITTLE
MOVEMENT IN SD IN THE NEAR TERM. THIS TREND ACTUALLY CONTINUES
THROUGH THE MORNING AND THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THE EDGE OF THE
STRATUS WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE IN SOUTHEAST SD THROUGH THE MORNING.
ACROSS SW MN...THERE IS ENOUGH OF WIND COMPONENT NORMAL TO THE BACK
EDGE OF THE STRATUS TO ADVECT IT SOUTH TOWARD I90 BY LATE THIS
MORNING. AS A RESULT EXPECT ALL OF NW IA AND NE NEBRASKA AS WELL AS
FAR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA TO REMAIN CLOUDY MUCH OF THE MORNING.
WHAT IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY ERODE THE STRATUS IS THE STRONG JUNE SUN
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR HEATING FROM BELOW AND ENHANCE MIXXING LATE
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRATUS SHOULD BREAK UP MOST
QUICKLY ALONG THE EDGES. SKIES ARE LIKELY TO BECOME ONLY PARTLY
CLOUDY AT BEST IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY AND SOUTH OF HWY 18 IN NW
IOWA. HIGHS TODAY WILL REFLECT THE DIFFERENCE IN CLOUD
COVER...RANGING FROM AROUND 70 IN STORM LAKE TO THE UPPER 70S WEST
OF THE JAMES RIVER.
ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL SWITCH WINDS TO
SOUTHEAST AND BRING THE STRATUS BACK NORTHWARD. BY SUNRISE ON
SATURDAY MUCH OF NW IA WILL BE OVERCAST WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ELSEWHERE. WHILE MUCH OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT LATE TONIGHT
FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO DEVELOP AROUND SIOUX CITY OR YANKTON. LOWS
OVER NIGH WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S ALONG HIGHWAY 14 IN SD AND
MN...TO LOWER 60S IN PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RESUMES FOR MUCH OF THE MID AND LONG TERM
FORECAST AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TREK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AS IS TYPICAL WITH THESE PROGRESSIVE SUMMER
PATTERNS...MODELS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND TRACK.
FOR SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE EMERGING IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LIFTS
NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS WAVE WILL CLIP NORTHWEST
IOWA AND ADJACENT COUNTIES WITH SHOWERS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN HALF...HOWEVER THE GEM REGIONAL SEEMS TO BE
AN OUTLIER BY BRINGING THIS WAVE MUCH FURTHER EAST. ACTIVITY SLOWLY
DRIFTS TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY IS PRETTY
MEAGER...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS POINT. HIGHS
WILL BE SEASONALLY COOL BUT PLEASANT IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY...WITH A BIT MORE
SURFACE HEATING AND MOISTURE INFLUX TO ALLOW MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...MAINLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE BEST SHOT FOR DRY WEATHER AREAWIDE ARRIVES MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS FROM THE NORTH...WHILE
QUASIZONAL UPPER FLOW SPLITS THE ENERGY NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
REGION. WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED POPS FROM ALL BUT SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA WHERE SOME CONVECTION FORMING IN THE HIGH PLAINS TO OUR WEST
MAY CREEP ACROSS OUR BORDER.
MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY ON TUESDAY AS WELL...HOWEVER WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY THROUGH
THE DAY. ALL MODELS PUSH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CARRY IT
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH THE GFS
AND ECMWF...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR STORMS WILL BE IN ACROSS OUR
NORTHWESTERN HALF TUESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THE GEM
CONTINUES TO BE THE OUTLIER...THIS TIME WITH A SOUTHERN ROUTE CLOSER
TO THE SD/NE BORDER.
BEYOND TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS DIFFERENCES BECOME MUCH
GREATER...LEADING TO MUCH HIGHER UNCERTAINTY. WILL LEAVE ALLBLEND
POPS AND TEMPERATURES IN PLACE FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015
STRATUS IS THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TAFS AT KSUX AND KFSD. A LARGE
AREA OF STRATUS REMAINS OVER NW IOWA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF SW MN
AND SE SD. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS SUCH THAT THE STRATUS WILL MOVE
LITTLE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS MEANS MVFR CELINGS CAN BE EXPECTED
ALL MORNING WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CIGS. AS TEMPERATURES WARM
LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECTING THAT
STRATUS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT ABOVE 2000 FT AND ALSO
ERODE...ESPECIALLY AT THE EDGES. AT THIS TIME...EXPECTING THIS
WILL BE ENOUGH TO GIVE KFSD VFR CONDITIONS FOR A TIME THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HWOEVER...IT IS UNLIKELY THAT KSUX WILL
LOSE THE CEILING ALTHOUGH SURFACE WARMING SHOULD LIFT THE CEILING
TO VFR FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK IN AND EXPECT MVFR CIGS AFTER 06Z
SATURDAY. THERE MAY ALSO BE LIGHT MVFR FOG AT KSUX.
ONCE LIGHT FOG BURNS OFF EARLY THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT KHON THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SCHUMACHER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
354 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE HOW FAST THE STRATUS MOVES OUT OF NORTHWEST IOWA AND
ADJACENT AREAS OF SD AND MN TODAY AND HOW QUICKLY THE STRATUS
RETURNS TONIGHT.
CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWS THAT THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS EXTENDS
FROM NEAR MARSHALL MN TO SIOUX FALLS AND THEN TO WEST OF YANKTON. IN
SW MN...THE STRATUS IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH BUT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
SD...THE STRATUS HAS NOT MOVED AT ALL AND IN FACT IS MOVING WESTWARD
A BIT IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY. THE RAP WINDS SHOW THAT THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW IS PARALLEL TO THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS WHICH MEANS VERY LITTLE
MOVEMENT IN SD IN THE NEAR TERM. THIS TREND ACTUALLY CONTINUES
THROUGH THE MORNING AND THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THE EDGE OF THE
STRATUS WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE IN SOUTHEAST SD THROUGH THE MORNING.
ACROSS SW MN...THERE IS ENOUGH OF WIND COMPONENT NORMAL TO THE BACK
EDGE OF THE STRATUS TO ADVECT IT SOUTH TOWARD I90 BY LATE THIS
MORNING. AS A RESULT EXPECT ALL OF NW IA AND NE NEBRASKA AS WELL AS
FAR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA TO REMAIN CLOUDY MUCH OF THE MORNING.
WHAT IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY ERODE THE STRATUS IS THE STRONG JUNE SUN
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR HEATING FROM BELOW AND ENHANCE MIXXING LATE
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRATUS SHOULD BREAK UP MOST
QUICKLY ALONG THE EDGES. SKIES ARE LIKELY TO BECOME ONLY PARTLY
CLOUDY AT BEST IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY AND SOUTH OF HWY 18 IN NW
IOWA. HIGHS TODAY WILL REFLECT THE DIFFERENCE IN CLOUD
COVER...RANGING FROM AROUND 70 IN STORM LAKE TO THE UPPER 70S WEST
OF THE JAMES RIVER.
ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL SWITCH WINDS TO
SOUTHEAST AND BRING THE STRATUS BACK NORTHWARD. BY SUNRISE ON
SATURDAY MUCH OF NW IA WILL BE OVERCAST WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ELSEWHERE. WHILE MUCH OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT LATE TONIGHT
FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO DEVELOP AROUND SIOUX CITY OR YANKTON. LOWS
OVER NIGH WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S ALONG HIGHWAY 14 IN SD AND
MN...TO LOWER 60S IN PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RESUMES FOR MUCH OF THE MID AND LONG TERM
FORECAST AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TREK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AS IS TYPICAL WITH THESE PROGRESSIVE SUMMER
PATTERNS...MODELS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND TRACK.
FOR SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE EMERGING IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LIFTS
NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS WAVE WILL CLIP NORTHWEST
IOWA AND ADJACENT COUNTIES WITH SHOWERS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN HALF...HOWEVER THE GEM REGIONAL SEEMS TO BE
AN OUTLIER BY BRINGING THIS WAVE MUCH FURTHER EAST. ACTIVITY SLOWLY
DRIFTS TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY IS PRETTY
MEAGER...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS POINT. HIGHS
WILL BE SEASONALLY COOL BUT PLEASANT IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY...WITH A BIT MORE
SURFACE HEATING AND MOISTURE INFLUX TO ALLOW MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...MAINLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE BEST SHOT FOR DRY WEATHER AREAWIDE ARRIVES MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS FROM THE NORTH...WHILE
QUASIZONAL UPPER FLOW SPLITS THE ENERGY NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
REGION. WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED POPS FROM ALL BUT SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA WHERE SOME CONVECTION FORMING IN THE HIGH PLAINS TO OUR WEST
MAY CREEP ACROSS OUR BORDER.
MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY ON TUESDAY AS WELL...HOWEVER WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY THROUGH
THE DAY. ALL MODELS PUSH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CARRY IT
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH THE GFS
AND ECMWF...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR STORMS WILL BE IN ACROSS OUR
NORTHWESTERN HALF TUESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THE GEM
CONTINUES TO BE THE OUTLIER...THIS TIME WITH A SOUTHERN ROUTE CLOSER
TO THE SD/NE BORDER.
BEYOND TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS DIFFERENCES BECOME MUCH
GREATER...LEADING TO MUCH HIGHER UNCERTAINTY. WILL LEAVE ALLBLEND
POPS AND TEMPERATURES IN PLACE FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015
VFR WILL PREVAIL AT KHON IN THE NEAR TERM. BUT ONE THING TO WATCH
FOR IS FOG FORMATION IN EAST CENTRAL SD AS SKIES CLEAR WITH LIGHT
WINDS. THE HRRR AND SREF PROBABILITIES ARE HINTING AT PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN THOSE AREAS FROM ABOUT 09Z TO 13Z FRIDAY. ACCOUNTED
FOR THIS BY HEDGING KHON IN THE MVFR CATEGORY DURING THAT TIME
FRAME AS AT THIS TIME...DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH EVIDENCE THAT IT WILL
GET WORSE. THEN KHON WILL BE VFR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. ELSEWHERE...PLENTY OF MVFR STILL EXISTS IN NORTHWEST IA
AND IMMEDIATE ADJACENT AREAS WHICH INCLUDE THE KFSD AND KSUX TAF
SITES. THAT SAID...VFR CONDITIONS DO EXIST JUST NORTH OF SIOUX
FALLS AND WITH A NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL WIND CONTINUING TONIGHT...AM
SUSPECTING THAT THE RAP13 AND NAM12 SOUNDINGS ARE TOO ROBUST WITH
LOW CLOUDS HANGING ON THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO MID MORNING
FRIDAY. THEREFORE AM GOING VFR FOR KFSD FOR MOST OF THE 06Z TAF
BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE WAS A BRIEF BOUT OF MVFR
CUMULUS MID MORNING FRIDAY WITH THE MOIST GROUND. FOR KSUX...THE
LOW CEILINGS WILL HANG ON LONGER...AND MAY NOT TOTALLY BREAK OUT
UNTIL 13Z FRIDAY IF THE CURRENT ADVECTION OF THE LOW CLOUDS
SOUTHWARD CONTINUES.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
935 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
.UPDATE...
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED NORTH THIS EVENING ALTERED THE
SURFACE TEMPERATURE FIELD SIGNIFICANTLY...THEREFORE MAIN CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST WERE TO UPDATE TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND PRECIP
CHANCES OVERNIGHT.
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...LOWERED PRECIP CHANCES TO SLIGHT
CHANCE AS ATMOSPHERE IS LARGELY TURNED OVER. A ROGUE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
EXTREMELY ISOLATED. LOWS IN THE LOW AND MIDDLE 70S ARE FORECAST AS
A HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE.
TVT
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015/
DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON STILL
INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...A
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND A SUBTLE BUT
WEAK SHORTWAVE NEAR THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST. REGIONAL WSR-88D
RADAR TRENDS INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER A
GOOD PORTION OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE SOUTH OF I-20 AND ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. AS OF 2 PM CDT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ARE IN
THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE
LOWER 80S DUE TO RAIN COOLED AIR.
LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR INDICATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARM AGAIN
WITH MOST READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS
EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY. NONETHELESS...A
CONTINUATION OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WITH THE BEST CHANCES OCCURRING MAINLY WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
AXIS.
LATEST MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY NEAR
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL DRIFT NORTHWEST TOWARDS TEXAS BY MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY AND MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MIDDLE/LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS TOWARDS LATE NEXT WEEK. SOME MODEL RUN TO RUN
DISCONTINUITY EXISTS BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF WITH THE HANDLING OF
THESE TROPICAL REMNANTS AND HAVE BLENDED TOWARDS LOWER CHANCE POPS
FOR NOW UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. BEST WILL
CONTINUE TO BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS EACH
DAY COINCIDENT WITH DAYTIME HEATING. AFTERNOON HIGHS EACH DAY WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S.
CJC
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS
EXPECT PRIMARILY A PERSISTENCE AVIATION FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. 18Z NAM SUGGESTS SLIGHTLY STRONGER RIDGING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON... LIMITING TUP AND MKL TSRA CHANCES. JBR MUCH MORE
LIKELY TO TS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MEM MARGINAL. HAVE OPTED TO
LEAVE TEMPO TSRA OUT OF MEM AT THIS EARLY STAGE.
FOR THE MEM LATE EVENING CARGO OPS... SOUTH SURFACE WIND COMPONENT
SHOULD FALL TO NEAR 7KTS 03Z...BUT MAY SEE SOME GUSTS IN THE
PRECEDING HOUR OR TWO FROM DECAYING SHRA/TSRA LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS NORTHWEST MS.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
647 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015/
DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON STILL
INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...A
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND A SUBTLE BUT
WEAK SHORTWAVE NEAR THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST. REGIONAL WSR-88D
RADAR TRENDS INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER A
GOOD PORTION OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE SOUTH OF I-20 AND ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. AS OF 2 PM CDT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ARE IN
THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE
LOWER 80S DUE TO RAIN COOLED AIR.
LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR INDICATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARM AGAIN
WITH MOST READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS
EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY. NONETHELESS...A
CONTINUATION OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WITH THE BEST CHANCES OCCURRING MAINLY WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
AXIS.
LATEST MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY NEAR
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL DRIFT NORTHWEST TOWARDS TEXAS BY MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY AND MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MIDDLE/LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS TOWARDS LATE NEXT WEEK. SOME MODEL RUN TO RUN
DISCONTINUITY EXISTS BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF WITH THE HANDLING OF
THESE TROPICAL REMNANTS AND HAVE BLENDED TOWARDS LOWER CHANCE POPS
FOR NOW UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. BEST WILL
CONTINUE TO BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS EACH
DAY COINCIDENT WITH DAYTIME HEATING. AFTERNOON HIGHS EACH DAY WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S.
CJC
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS
EXPECT PRIMARILY A PERSISTENCE AVIATION FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. 18Z NAM SUGGESTS SLIGHTLY STRONGER RIDGING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON... LIMITING TUP AND MKL TSRA CHANCES. JBR MUCH MORE
LIKELY TO TS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MEM MARGINAL. HAVE OPTED TO
LEAVE TEMPO TSRA OUT OF MEM AT THIS EARLY STAGE.
FOR THE MEM LATE EVENING CARGO OPS... SOUTH SURFACE WIND COMPONENT
SHOULD FALL TO NEAR 7KTS 03Z...BUT MAY SEE SOME GUSTS IN THE
PRECEDING HOUR OR TWO FROM DECAYING SHRA/TSRA LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS NORTHWEST MS.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
340 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015
.DISCUSSION...
BASICALLY...AS IS THE CASE WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERNS THE
UPPER LEVELS WILL GENERALLY GOVERN THE WEATHER SCENARIO OVER THE
NEXT 7 DAYS. THAT SAID...UPPER HIGH OVER THE BAHAMAS IS BEGINNING TO
STRENGTHEN WITH RIDGING NOSING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD TN. SCATTERED
CONVECTION STRETCHES FROM CENTRAL TO SOUTHWESTERN AREAS OF THE
CWA. THE SCATTERED CONVECTION IS NOW WEAKENING...AS THE HRRR
INDICATED...AS THE UPPER RIDGE IS GAINING CONTROL.
MEANWHILE...WE ARE SEEING MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT WITH THE
MOVEMENT ACROSS SRN KY. HRRR LOOP REALLY PICKS UP ON THE ANTI-
CYCLONIC FLOW WITH TIME. AT ANY RATE...THIS ACTIVITY IS DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AND WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE THE ACTIVITY DECREASE BY
EVENING. WILL OF COURSE INCLUDE A PRE AFTERNOON PERIOD AND ADJUST
POPS PER LATEST RADAR TRENDS.
DESPITE THE STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY...MOISTURE LEVELS BENEATH THE RIDGE WILL STILL BE
SOMEWHAT APPRECIABLE. THEREFORE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP AGAIN. ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH
WILL MOVE CLOSER TO OUR AREA. MRH VALUES WILL DROP AND CONVECTION
WILL BECOME MORE HARD PRESSED TO DEVELOP. FURTHERMORE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BECOME MORE VERTICALLY STACKED THEREBY REDUCING THE
SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TAP. WE STILL...HOWEVER...SEE A POSITIVE
CAPE/CAP RATIO AND THEREBY SLIGHT CHANCES OF MAINLY AFT AND EVE
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
FOR THE SHORT TERM TEMPS...ABOVE NORMAL VALUES TO CONTINUE. WONT
DRIFT MUCH FROM MAV NUMBERS.
IN THE EXTENDED FCST...UPPER RIDGING WILL RELAX BY MID WEEK AND A
WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP OVER TX. WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL THEN PICK UP WITH AN ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN CURVATURE AND SHEAR
UPSTREAM. CONVECTION COVERAGE WILL INCREASE INTO THE CHANCE CAT WITH
NOCTURNAL POTENTIAL AS WELL...GIVEN THE ADDED UPPER LEVEL ENERGY.
LATEST GFS SHOWING A RATHER WET FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE REACHES OUR AREA. SUPER-BLEND NOT COMPLETELY
SOLD ON THIS SCENARIO AS OF YET.
FOR THE EXT TEMPS...A CONTINUATION OF WARM/HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS.
DESPITE THE RELAXATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE BY MID WEEK...HEIGHTS WILL
STILL REMAIN ON THE ELEVATED SIDE.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 71 90 71 92 / 30 30 20 20
CLARKSVILLE 71 88 70 89 / 20 30 20 20
CROSSVILLE 68 86 68 86 / 30 30 20 20
COLUMBIA 71 90 71 92 / 30 20 20 20
LAWRENCEBURG 71 89 70 91 / 30 20 20 20
WAVERLY 71 88 71 90 / 20 30 20 20
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1228 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015
.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1043 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015/
DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/12Z UPPER AIR PLOTS INDICATE
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. AS OF 10 AM
CDT...SKIES ARE SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
LATEST SHORT TERM TRENDS INCLUDING THE HRRR INDICATE A POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE MID SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE
REACHED WITH PERHAPS THE BEST COVERAGE OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI ONCE AGAIN. A STRONG TO PERHAPS ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM MAY BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AS THE POTENTIAL
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.
WILL MAKE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND ANY OTHER ELEMENTS
AS NEEDED TO ACCOUNT FOR SHORT TERM TRENDS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST
OVERALL IS IN GREAT SHAPE.
UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
CJC
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015/
DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THIS
MORNING. A VERY SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
NORTH GULF COAST NORTH INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE WATER VAPOR
LOOP INDICATES SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE FROM ABOUT I-40 SOUTHWARD.
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S
AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO STRENGTHEN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY. MODELS ARE A LITTLE LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH OVERALL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY. CUT POPS ABOUT 10 PERCENT AREAWIDE
LEAVING CHANCE POPS WHERE THE MOISTURE IS A BIT DEEPER AS DEPICTED
BY THE WATER VAPOR LOOP AND SLIGHT CHANCES ELSW. BUMPED TEMPS UP
A DEGREE OR TWO AS WELL...MAINLY LOWER 90S. CONVECTION WILL
DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT ON TAP WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. DURING THE WEEKEND. ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE MODELS SEEM TO BE PICKING UP ON A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES
MOVING NORTH FROM THE NORTH GULF COAST THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS WEEKEND. LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH...INCLUDING THE DELTA...WITH LOWER POPS
TOWARD THE TN RIVER WHERE THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS
STRONGER. THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT CONVECTION AT ANY TIME DURING
THIS PERIOD COVERAGE SHOULD BE GREATEST DURING THE AFTN/EARLY
EVENING PERIODS. HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN THE
PAST FEW DAYS WITH INCREASED PRECIP AND CLOUDS BUT STILL
WARM...UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.
NEXT WEEK...LOOKS LIKE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN FOR THE
MIDSOUTH. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY WITH THE GFS A
LITTLE WEAKER WITH THE SOUTHEAST U.S. UPPER RIDGE EARLY IN THE
WEEK FOLLOWED BY A WEAK UPPER TROF MOVING IN LATER IN THE WEEK.
THE ECMWF KEEPS THE RIDGE IN PLACE ALL WEEK. THE GFS WOULD BE THE
WETTER AND COOLER SOLUTION. AT THIS POINT TOOK A COMPROMISE
APPROACH TO POPS AND TEMPS...BASICALLY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.
SJM
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 10-15KT TODAY...5-10KT TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATEST
CHANCE AT TUP....BUT BECOME MORE LIKELY AREA WIDE AFTER SUNRISE
TOMORROW. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. IFR TO LIFT DUE TO VIS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED AT JBR BY AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1043 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015
.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/12Z UPPER AIR PLOTS INDICATE
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. AS OF 10 AM
CDT...SKIES ARE SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
LATEST SHORT TERM TRENDS INCLUDING THE HRRR INDICATE A POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE MID SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE
REACHED WITH PERHAPS THE BEST COVERAGE OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI ONCE AGAIN. A STRONG TO PERHAPS ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM MAY BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AS THE POTENTIAL
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.
WILL MAKE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND ANY OTHER ELEMENTS
AS NEEDED TO ACCOUNT FOR SHORT TERM TRENDS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST
OVERALL IS IN GREAT SHAPE.
UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
CJC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015/
DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THIS
MORNING. A VERY SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
NORTH GULF COAST NORTH INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE WATER VAPOR
LOOP INDICATES SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE FROM ABOUT I-40 SOUTHWARD.
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S
AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO STRENGTHEN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY. MODELS ARE A LITTLE LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH OVERALL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY. CUT POPS ABOUT 10 PERCENT AREAWIDE
LEAVING CHANCE POPS WHERE THE MOISTURE IS A BIT DEEPER AS DEPICTED
BY THE WATER VAPOR LOOP AND SLIGHT CHANCES ELSW. BUMPED TEMPS UP
A DEGREE OR TWO AS WELL...MAINLY LOWER 90S. CONVECTION WILL
DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT ON TAP WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. DURING THE WEEKEND. ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE MODELS SEEM TO BE PICKING UP ON A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES
MOVING NORTH FROM THE NORTH GULF COAST THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS WEEKEND. LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH...INCLUDING THE DELTA...WITH LOWER POPS
TOWARD THE TN RIVER WHERE THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS
STRONGER. THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT CONVECTION AT ANY TIME DURING
THIS PERIOD COVERAGE SHOULD BE GREATEST DURING THE AFTN/EARLY
EVENING PERIODS. HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN THE
PAST FEW DAYS WITH INCREASED PRECIP AND CLOUDS BUT STILL
WARM...UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.
NEXT WEEK...LOOKS LIKE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN FOR THE
MIDSOUTH. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY WITH THE GFS A
LITTLE WEAKER WITH THE SOUTHEAST U.S. UPPER RIDGE EARLY IN THE
WEEK FOLLOWED BY A WEAK UPPER TROF MOVING IN LATER IN THE WEEK.
THE ECMWF KEEPS THE RIDGE IN PLACE ALL WEEK. THE GFS WOULD BE THE
WETTER AND COOLER SOLUTION. AT THIS POINT TOOK A COMPROMISE
APPROACH TO POPS AND TEMPS...BASICALLY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.
SJM
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR THIS PERIOD...THOUGH A BRIEF VSBY REDUCTION IN CONVECTION MAY
THREATEN TUP. REMOVED VCTS AT MEM AND MKL AS STORMS APPEAR TOO
ISOLATED AND MORE ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. PERIODS OF VCSH
IS MORE LIKELY.
BIGGEST CONCERN THIS PERIOD WILL BE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AT MEM AND
JBR. WINDS WILL REMAIN STOUT OVERNIGHT AT MEM.
JAB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1016 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015
.UPDATE...
SEEING OUR FIRST ECHOES POP UP OVER SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND
NORTHERN ALABAMA OVER THAT LAST 30 MINUTES. HRRR HAS BEEN
INDICATING MORE ACTIVITY TODAY THAN WE SAW YESTERDAY...WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS KICKING OFF BY 16Z. IT`S LIKELY THAT SOME
PLACES IN THE NORTHWEST COULD SEE A SHOWER BEFORE 18Z...SO
INCREASED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE THIS MORNING OVER THAT AREA. THE
12Z SOUNDING INDICATED INCREASING MOISTURE OVER OUR AREA WITH
PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHEAR SO WE`LL
LIKELY SEE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015/
UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF`S.
AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS SITUATED TO OUR EAST
WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. AIR
MASS HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE, WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. LIGHT RADIATION FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AFTER 06Z.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
1021 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST IS ON THE RIGHT TRACK THIS MORNING...BUT A FEW SMALL
TWEAKS WILL BE MADE FOR THE UPDATE. THE 12Z OHS SOUNDING SHOWS
QUITE A BIT MORE MOISTURE THAN YESTERDAY...HOWEVER THERE IS VERY
LITTLE INSTABILITY. THE FFC SOUNDING LOOKS MORE STABLE TODAY AS
WELL. MODEL CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS THIS AFTERNOON ARE RATHER
BLAND...WITH THE RAP SHOWING MIN LI AROUND -3 AND MAX K INDEX IN
THE MID 30S. THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP REFLECTIVITY DEPICTIONS SHOW
SCATTERED COVERAGE AT BEST TODAY...WITH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA HAVING SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE THAN THE SOUTHERN HALF. WILL
ADJUST POPS TO LOWER ALL AREAS INTO THE CHANCE RANGE. OVERCAST
CLOUDS SOUTH ARE HOLDING TEMPS BACK A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN
FORECAST...AND WILL LOWER FORECAST HIGHS THERE A DEGREE OR TWO.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
1054 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
.AVIATION... /FOR THE 06Z TAFS/
PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF ALL TERMINALS BY 06Z. THERE IS
A LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING LATER
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KDHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS LIKELY
LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING...STARTING AT KDHT AFTER 21Z AND
MAKING IT TO KAMA BY AROUND 00Z. KGUY MAY ALSO SEE SHRA/TSRA NEARBY
BUT PROBABILITIES ARE LOWER THAN KDHT AND KAMA. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
BRB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015/
MESOSCALE UPDATE...
21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS ANOMALOUSLY MOIST SURFACE DEW POINTS
ADVECTING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND
ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 60 DEW POINTS WERE
PRESENT AND AN INFERRED THETA-E RIDGE EXTENDED THROUGH LUBBOCK WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO AROUND CLOVIS AND IS QUITE APPARENT IN THE WEST
TEXAS MESONET OBSERVATIONS. LEE SURFACE TROUGHING WAS NOT OVERLY
SHARP/INTENSE ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND THE FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE. A DISTINCT MCV WAS SEEN CLEARLY IN VISIBLE IMAGERY LOOP
NEAR DALHART AND THIS FEATURE IS ENHANCING SURFACE CONVERGENCE ACROSS
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA...STILL SLIGHTLY REMOVED FROM THE
RICHEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
ASIDE FROM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...THE MOST EXTENSIVE CU DEVELOPMENT SO FAR ON THE PLAINS TO
THE EAST HAS BEEN NEAR THE WESTERN EXTENT OF AFOREMENTIONED LOW
LEVEL THETA-E AXIS IN EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO JUST WEST OF CLOVIS.
FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE CU WAS
GROWING/DEEPENING IN A ZONE OF MORE NOTABLE SURFACE CONVERGENCE FROM
NEAR HEREFORD TO NEAR AMARILLO WITH A SECONDARY AREA JUST UPSTREAM
FROM THE MCV ACROSS THE CENTRAL OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THESE TWO AREAS
WILL PROBABLY BE THE FIRST LOCATIONS TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
SPC RAP MESOANALYSIS AND LAPS SHOWS MODERATE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH HIGHEST
VALUES WHERE DIABATIC HEATING HAS OCCURRED FOR THE LONGEST DURATION
IN THE ABSENCE OF CLOUDS (SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA). MEAN FLOW ALOFT REMAINS QUITE WEAK BUT THE
COMBINATION OF ABOUT 20-25 KNOTS 500 MB FLOW ATOP SOUTHEASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR PERSISTENT MULTI-CELLS AND
A FEW SUPERCELLS THIS EVENING. ALL MODES OF SEVERE ARE POSSIBLE WITH
HAIL PROBABLY BEING THE MOST DOMINATE EARLY ON FOLLOWED BY MORE OF A
WIND THREAT LATER AS COLD POOL GENERATION OCCURS AND STORMS
ORGANIZE/ACCELERATE EASTWARD.
AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MENTIONS...A LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT
MAY MATERIALIZE. STORM MOTIONS MAY INITIALLY BE QUITE SLOW AND WITH
BLENDED TPW VALUES AROUND +2SD ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID JUNE AND
SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING SEEMS PROBABLE...ESPECIALLY OVER SECTIONS OF
THE AREA THAT HAVE SATURATED GROUNDS FROM RECENT RAINS. AMARILLO HAS
RECEIVED AROUND 2 INCHES IN THE PAST 48 HOURS. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN
IS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE PANHANDLE EAST OF CLARENDON NEAR
WELLINGTON WHICH HAS SEEN LOCALLY 3+ INCHES SINCE EARLY YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS AN INCREASE IN
PWAT LATER THIS EVENING. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING ON BEHAVIOR OF INITIAL CONVECTION PRECEDING THE COMPLEX OF
STORMS THAT SHOULD EVOLVE OVER NEW MEXICO FROM ONGOING HIGH TERRAIN
CONVECTION AND MOVE THROUGH. IF COLD POOL GENERATION IS SUFFICIENT
THESE STORMS SHOULD PASS THROUGH MORE QUICKLY HOPEFULLY MINIMIZING A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL FLOOD THREAT.
BRB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)...
EXPECT STORMS ORGANIZING IN MOUNTAINS OF NM WILL TRAVEL EAST ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THE LATE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS WITH ACTIVITY
LINGERING BEYOND MIDNIGHT ESP ACROSS ERN PANHANDLES. MODERATELY STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG WILL COMBINE
WITH BULK SHEAR EXCEEDING 30 AND 0-3 KM HELICITY VALUES PERHAPS
INCREASING TO NEAR 250 (HIGHER IN NAM12 PROGS AS MODEST LLJ KICKS IN)
WILL PROVIDE A RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS AS WELL AS HEAVY RAINFALL
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SW ZONES. HAVE THESE THREATS
INDICATED IN GRIDS AND ALSO BUMPED POPS UP TO 80 ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CEN AND ERN HALF GIVEN ADDITIONAL AID OF LARGE SCALE LIFT AND UPR
DIFFLUENCE EAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. WAS RIDING THE FENCE
WRT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SRN ZONES...BUT HELD OFF FOR NOW GIVEN
INDICATIONS THE STORMS MAY BE MOVING AT A GOOD CLIP. THAT SAID...A
QUICK 1/2 TO 1" OF RAIN AND ISOLD AMOUNTS TO AROUND 3 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE AND WILL CERTAINLY PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING. AS RAINFALL
ADDS UP...WE CERTAINLY WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER WATCHES FOR EVENTS THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
A MID-UPR LEVEL TROUGH WHICH SHOWS UP MUCH SHARPER AT H25 AND H5
WILL DEEPEN AND SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS WITH MED RANGE MODELS
GENERALLY KEEPING THE FEATURE JUST EAST ACROSS ERN NM THROUGH MID
WEEK ALTHOUGH IT DOES WEAKEN QUITE A BUT BY WED. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO PROMOTE HIGH RAIN CHANCES WITH SCT TO NUMEROUS POPS THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE FINALLY DECREASING TUES AND ESPECIALLY WED. POSITION OF THIS
FEATURE IS MOST FAVORABLE THROUGH MONDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH DEEP
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CONCERNS FOR FLOODING ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE ALTHOUGH LACK OF A LARGE SCALE BOUNDARY MAKES IT DIFFICULT
TO SAY WHERE GREATEST FOCUS WILL BE ON ANY GIVEN DAY. EXPECT SOME
DRYING AROUND MID WEEK HOWEVER THE IS SOME INDICATION A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE CEN PLAINS COULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR AN MCS WHICH COULD MOVE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WED NIGHT. THIS IS CURRENTLY NOT SHOWN
IN CURRENT GRIDS AND FORECAST PRODUCTS GIVEN HIGH UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR
OUT. HIGH TEMPS REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD DUE TO
CLOUDS AND RAINFALL BUT SHOULD BE CLOSER TO NORMAL BY MID WEEK.
MODELS DEVIATE QUITE A BIT BY NEXT WEEKEND AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN
LOW LAST FEW PERIODS.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
17/11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
658 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2015
.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
VFR conditions currently at all sites. Scattered showers and a
possible thunderstorm may affect KABI in the next hour or two, and
also later if the HRRR is correct in bringing a line of
thunderstorms through the area. Have kept the mention of VCTS at
KABI, KSJT and KSOA during the evening hours for this possibility.
Expect the thunderstorms if they survive this far east to
dissipate for the most part before making it to KBBD and KJCT, but
will update if convection does hang on that far east. Otherwise,
MVFR CIGS are expected to return, especially for southern areas
during the overnight hours, as winds remain southeasterly outside
of erratic gusts from thunderstorms. 20
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015/
SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)
A quasi-stationary front was analyzed across the northern Big
Country this morning, but this boundary has become more diffuse this
afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have initiated along
and north of this boundary, mainly affecting locations just outside
of the CWA. However, recent satellite imagery has shown an outflow
boundary moving south across Haskell and Throckmorton Counties,
which could lead to additional development of storms south of the
current complex. Farther west, additional storms are developing,
favoring the higher terrain west of Ft. Stockton. A few cells have
tried to get going north of Snyder, sparked from what appears to be
a gravity wave moving southeast across the South Plains. However,
this activity has really struggled to maintain any intensity. MLCAPE
values are on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg, but effective bulk shear
values are on the low side (<25 kts), suggesting generally
disorganized convection this afternoon.
Most of the area will remain dry over the next few hours (excluding
the northern Big Country), but thunderstorms to our west are
expected to grow upscale into a loosely organized MCS, moving east
into the area during the evening and early morning hours. The
general trend should be for this activity to weaken as it moves into
West Central TX. We could see locally heavy rainfall, but most areas
will likely see less than 1/4". Overnight temperatures will largely
be in the lower 70s, but a few areas could dip into the upper 60s in
and around thunderstorms.
Any lingering precipitation from overnight convection is not
expected to persist long on Sunday. Most of the area will likely
remain dry through midday, with a few showers and thunderstorms
developing in the moist, uncapped environment. Like today, the
threat for severe weather will remain low. Highs tomorrow will be in
the upper 80s and lower 90s.
LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)
This afternoon, an upper-level trough was located west of the
region. Over the next few days it will continue to slowly move our
way, weakening as it does so. Farther south and east, a tropical low
was moving across the Yucatan, and this low is forecast to move
towards the middle Texas coast by Tuesday.
Moisture will continue to remain plentiful, with precipitable water
values in the 1.5 to 2 inch range. This afternoon`s numerical model
runs also show an upper-level perturbation crossing the Panhandle
tomorrow night, which may help organize convection to our northwest.
If this was to pan out, a cluster of thunderstorms may grow upscale
into an MCS if their associated could pools consolidate, with an
east to southeast propagation expected (similar to last night and
what may occur tonight). Locations north and west of a line from Ft.
Lancaster, to Robert Lee, to Albany would stand the best chance of
seeing any rainfall from this potential system. The aforementioned
trough (what`s left of it) will cross West Central Texas during the
first half of the week, helping pull the tropical low north ahead of
it. With a continued moist and uncapped airmass in place, shower and
thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase, especially across the
eastern half of the forecast area. Drier air moving across West
Central Texas will put an end to any precipitation chances for
Friday and Saturday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 73 90 72 89 71 / 40 30 30 40 30
San Angelo 72 92 72 91 71 / 40 20 30 30 20
Junction 74 92 72 90 71 / 30 20 20 20 20
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
614 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY ALONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WEST OF KAMA. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO WESTERN PART OF FORECAST AREA...OVERTAKING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY. EXPECT THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EAST OF TERMINALS BY 06Z
SUNDAY. AMENDMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED DURING THE NEXT SIX HOURS.
APART FROM REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND LOWER CEILINGS IN THUNDERSTORMS...
VFR FORECAST CONTINUES NEXT 24 HOURS.
COCKRELL
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015/
MESOSCALE UPDATE...
21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS ANOMALOUSLY MOIST SURFACE DEW POINTS
ADVECTING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND
ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 60 DEW POINTS WERE
PRESENT AND AN INFERRED THETA-E RIDGE EXTENDED THROUGH LUBBOCK WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO AROUND CLOVIS AND IS QUITE APPARENT IN THE WEST
TEXAS MESONET OBSERVATIONS. LEE SURFACE TROUGHING WAS NOT OVERLY
SHARP/INTENSE ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND THE FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE. A DISTINCT MCV WAS SEEN CLEARLY IN VISIBLE IMAGERY LOOP
NEAR DALHART AND THIS FEATURE IS ENHANCING SURFACE CONVERGENCE ACROSS
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA...STILL SLIGHTLY REMOVED FROM THE
RICHEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
ASIDE FROM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...THE MOST EXTENSIVE CU DEVELOPMENT SO FAR ON THE PLAINS TO
THE EAST HAS BEEN NEAR THE WESTERN EXTENT OF AFOREMENTIONED LOW
LEVEL THETA-E AXIS IN EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO JUST WEST OF CLOVIS.
FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE CU WAS
GROWING/DEEPENING IN A ZONE OF MORE NOTABLE SURFACE CONVERGENCE FROM
NEAR HEREFORD TO NEAR AMARILLO WITH A SECONDARY AREA JUST UPSTREAM
FROM THE MCV ACROSS THE CENTRAL OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THESE TWO AREAS
WILL PROBABLY BE THE FIRST LOCATIONS TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
SPC RAP MESOANALYSIS AND LAPS SHOWS MODERATE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH HIGHEST
VALUES WHERE DIABATIC HEATING HAS OCCURRED FOR THE LONGEST DURATION
IN THE ABSENCE OF CLOUDS (SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA). MEAN FLOW ALOFT REMAINS QUITE WEAK BUT THE
COMBINATION OF ABOUT 20-25 KNOTS 500 MB FLOW ATOP SOUTHEASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR PERSISTENT MULTI-CELLS AND
A FEW SUPERCELLS THIS EVENING. ALL MODES OF SEVERE ARE POSSIBLE WITH
HAIL PROBABLY BEING THE MOST DOMINATE EARLY ON FOLLOWED BY MORE OF A
WIND THREAT LATER AS COLD POOL GENERATION OCCURS AND STORMS
ORGANIZE/ACCELERATE EASTWARD.
AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MENTIONS...A LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT
MAY MATERIALIZE. STORM MOTIONS MAY INITIALLY BE QUITE SLOW AND WITH
BLENDED TPW VALUES AROUND +2SD ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID JUNE AND
SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING SEEMS PROBABLE...ESPECIALLY OVER SECTIONS OF
THE AREA THAT HAVE SATURATED GROUNDS FROM RECENT RAINS. AMARILLO HAS
RECEIVED AROUND 2 INCHES IN THE PAST 48 HOURS. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN
IS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE PANHANDLE EAST OF CLARENDON NEAR
WELLINGTON WHICH HAS SEEN LOCALLY 3+ INCHES SINCE EARLY YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS AN INCREASE IN
PWAT LATER THIS EVENING. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING ON BEHAVIOR OF INITIAL CONVECTION PRECEDING THE COMPLEX OF
STORMS THAT SHOULD EVOLVE OVER NEW MEXICO FROM ONGOING HIGH TERRAIN
CONVECTION AND MOVE THROUGH. IF COLD POOL GENERATION IS SUFFICIENT
THESE STORMS SHOULD PASS THROUGH MORE QUICKLY HOPEFULLY MINIMIZING A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL FLOOD THREAT.
BRB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)...
EXPECT STORMS ORGANIZING IN MOUNTAINS OF NM WILL TRAVEL EAST ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THE LATE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS WITH ACTIVITY
LINGERING BEYOND MIDNIGHT ESP ACROSS ERN PANHANDLES. MODERATELY STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG WILL COMBINE
WITH BULK SHEAR EXCEEDING 30 AND 0-3 KM HELICITY VALUES PERHAPS
INCREASING TO NEAR 250 (HIGHER IN NAM12 PROGS AS MODEST LLJ KICKS IN)
WILL PROVIDE A RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS AS WELL AS HEAVY RAINFALL
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SW ZONES. HAVE THESE THREATS
INDICATED IN GRIDS AND ALSO BUMPED POPS UP TO 80 ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CEN AND ERN HALF GIVEN ADDITIONAL AID OF LARGE SCALE LIFT AND UPR
DIFFLUENCE EAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. WAS RIDING THE FENCE
WRT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SRN ZONES...BUT HELD OFF FOR NOW GIVEN
INDICATIONS THE STORMS MAY BE MOVING AT A GOOD CLIP. THAT SAID...A
QUICK 1/2 TO 1" OF RAIN AND ISOLD AMOUNTS TO AROUND 3 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE AND WILL CERTAINLY PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING. AS RAINFALL
ADDS UP...WE CERTAINLY WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER WATCHES FOR EVENTS THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
A MID-UPR LEVEL TROUGH WHICH SHOWS UP MUCH SHARPER AT H25 AND H5
WILL DEEPEN AND SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS WITH MED RANGE MODELS
GENERALLY KEEPING THE FEATURE JUST EAST ACROSS ERN NM THROUGH MID
WEEK ALTHOUGH IT DOES WEAKEN QUITE A BUT BY WED. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO PROMOTE HIGH RAIN CHANCES WITH SCT TO NUMEROUS POPS THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE FINALLY DECREASING TUES AND ESPECIALLY WED. POSITION OF THIS
FEATURE IS MOST FAVORABLE THROUGH MONDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH DEEP
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CONCERNS FOR FLOODING ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE ALTHOUGH LACK OF A LARGE SCALE BOUNDARY MAKES IT DIFFICULT
TO SAY WHERE GREATEST FOCUS WILL BE ON ANY GIVEN DAY. EXPECT SOME
DRYING AROUND MID WEEK HOWEVER THE IS SOME INDICATION A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE CEN PLAINS COULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR AN MCS WHICH COULD MOVE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WED NIGHT. THIS IS CURRENTLY NOT SHOWN
IN CURRENT GRIDS AND FORECAST PRODUCTS GIVEN HIGH UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR
OUT. HIGH TEMPS REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD DUE TO
CLOUDS AND RAINFALL BUT SHOULD BE CLOSER TO NORMAL BY MID WEEK.
MODELS DEVIATE QUITE A BIT BY NEXT WEEKEND AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN
LOW LAST FEW PERIODS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 63 81 63 80 63 / 80 50 60 60 50
BEAVER OK 65 84 65 80 65 / 50 40 60 60 40
BOISE CITY OK 61 83 61 80 61 / 40 30 40 30 30
BORGER TX 65 83 65 82 65 / 80 50 60 60 40
BOYS RANCH TX 63 83 63 82 63 / 80 40 50 50 40
CANYON TX 63 81 63 80 63 / 80 40 60 60 50
CLARENDON TX 64 82 65 80 65 / 80 50 60 60 60
DALHART TX 61 83 62 81 61 / 60 40 50 40 30
GUYMON OK 64 84 63 81 64 / 60 40 50 30 30
HEREFORD TX 62 82 63 81 63 / 80 40 50 60 50
LIPSCOMB TX 65 82 65 81 64 / 60 40 60 60 50
PAMPA TX 63 81 63 80 63 / 80 50 60 60 50
SHAMROCK TX 66 82 66 82 66 / 80 40 60 60 60
WELLINGTON TX 67 84 68 83 68 / 80 40 60 60 60
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
03/08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
247 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015
.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...IN THE IMMEDIATE TERM
THE SEABREEZE ACTIVATED EARLIER THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ALONG IT MOVING NORTHWESTWARD. TAKING A LOOK AT THE
HRRR AND RAP BOTH MODELS KEEP THIS ACTIVITY GOING FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS THEN DISSIPATING AROUND SUNSET AS THE SEABREEZE AND
FORCING WEAKENS. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY LIGHTNING AND HAS BEEN ISOLATED
IN NATURE AND PROGRESSING NORTHWESTWARD SO AMOUNTS OF ONE QUARTER
INCH OR LESS.
THE ATMOSPHERE IS FAIRLY DRY IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WITH
MOST MOISTURE CENTERED AT 850MB AND BELOW. PWATS ON THE 12Z
SOUNDING WERE 1.85 INCHES HERE AT BRO. ONCE THE SUN GOES DOWN THE
FORCING WEAKENS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES GO DOWN TO AROUND 10%
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GULF WATERS WHERE CHANCES WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE BECOMING A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
OVERNIGHT AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S.
SATURDAY WILL BE A REPEAT OF TODAY JUST WITH A LITTLE MORE
MOISTURE I EXPECT TO SEE WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
HAVE RAISED POP CHANCES TO CHANCE ALONG THE SEABREEZE AND TRACKED
THAT POP CHANCE INLAND AFT 18Z CORRESPONDING TO THE MOVEMENT OF
THE SEABREEZE. MAY EVEN EXPERIENCE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN
RIO GRANDE RIVER AREA IN ZAPATA COUNTY BY SUNSET. ANOTHER HOT AND
MUGGY DAY IN STORE WITH HEAT INDICIES OR FEELS LIKE TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW TO MID 100S.
.LONG TERM.../SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...STILL CONTINUING TO KEEP
AN EYE ON THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WHICH
MOVES SLOWLY TOWARDS THE WEST. THIS LOW WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY
PENETRATING THE LAST OF THE DEEP DRY AIR WHICH HANGS ON ABOVE THE
700 MB LEVEL THROUGH SUNDAY AS SUBSIDENCE HOLDS. WEAK UPPER TROUGH
SLIDING INTO NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY EVENING DOES LITTLE MORE THAN
MAINTAIN GUSTY SOUTHEAST FLOW WHICH IS GENERALLY NOT CONDUCIVE TO
PRECIP AFTER MIDDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 77...IF MORNING
CONVECTION DEVELOPS. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR POPS REMAIN OVER THE
GULF WATERS AND COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH MONDAY.
MODEL DIFFERENCES SHOW UP SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH THE GFS
HOLDING EXPANDING RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WITH A LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ECMWF IS NOT
DETECTING A STRONG LOW LIKE THE GFS AT THIS TIME. THE MAIN IMPACTS
AT THIS TIME WILL BE THE INCREASE OF A MORE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER POPS OFFSHORE. THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE CONTENT IS DEPICTED IN THE MODELS WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2.14 INCHES WITH MORE DEEPER MOISTURE
EVEN UP TO 700 MB. THIS WILL RESULT IN GREATER POTENTIAL FOR RAIN
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
HAVE FOCUSED HIGHEST CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS LIKELY TO BE
SPREAD INTO TUESDAY AND PERHAPS THURSDAY AS THINGS EVOLVED. BELIEVE
THE ECMWF IS A BIT TOO QUICK TO SHOVE THE DEEPER MOISTURE TOWARD THE
SIERRA MADRE NEXT THURSDAY SO HELD ONTO 50/50 CHANCES FOR THE TIME
BEING. THE SENSIBLE WEATHER RESULT WOULD BE POCKETS OF NUISANCE
URBAN-TYPE FLOODING BUT NO WIDESPREAD RAIN DUMPS...EVEN THOUGH
EVERYONE LIKELY TO END UP WITH 1-2 INCHES AS A BASELINE BETWEEN
MONDAY AND NEXT FRIDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...ONLY A FEW TWEAKS
MAINLY TO NUDGE AFTERNOON VALUES DOWN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN COVERAGE.
&&
.MARINE....NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BUOY 42020 REPORTED
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 13 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 17 KNOTS WITH
SEAS OF 3.6 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 6 SECONDS AT 14 CDT/19 UTC. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL INTERACT WITH LOWER PRESSURE
OVER WEST TEXAS RESULTING IN MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ALONG THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST. SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT AND ACROSS ALL LOWER TEXAS COASTAL
WATERS SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE GULF
WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...RAIN CHANCES ARE ON THE INCREASE AS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE GRADUALLY
SHIFTS WEST INTO THE GULF WATERS. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY. BOTH MODELS ARE DEPICTING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH ASSOCIATED WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS IN THE NEXT MODELS RUNS BUT MAINLY WILL
BRING GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH INCREASE SE WINDS. SEAS AS A RESULT WILL BUILD DUE TO
THE LONG SE FETCH OVER THE GULF WATERS. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 6 TO 8
FEET FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. SCA ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 80 90 80 89 / 20 30 30 30
BROWNSVILLE 79 91 79 90 / 20 30 20 30
HARLINGEN 78 93 78 92 / 10 30 20 30
MCALLEN 79 96 79 95 / 10 30 10 30
RIO GRANDE CITY 78 97 78 97 / 10 20 10 20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 80 87 80 86 / 20 30 30 30
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM...67
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...STRAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1244 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
40
&&
.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. STILL
NOT ENOUGH TO TRY AND PIN DOWN FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN VCTS. THERE
WAS SOME DISCONNECT BETWEEN THE RAP MODEL AND THE SATELLITE
LOCATION OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF...HOWEVER THE
MODEL CONSENSUS WAS TO SHEAR OUT THE LOW DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
OR SO AND PUSH THE MOISTURE AXIS INTO THE EASTERN LOCATIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. TAKING A CONSENSUS OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS
SHOWS THAT A BREAK IS LIKELY THIS EVENING FOR ALL SITES BUT KGLS.
ANOTHER BOUT OF SHOWERS SHOULD WORK ITS WAY INLAND LATE THIS
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ON SATURDAY...TSRA COVERAGE
SHOULD INCREASE BY AROUND 12Z WITH KIAH...KHOU...AND KGLS LOOKING
TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES THROUGH 18Z.
LOOKING AHEAD TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE MODEL CONSENSUS WAS TO
SCATTER OUT THE GOOD COVERAGE OVER THE SITES NEAR THE COAST AND
GALVESTON BAY. FOR NOW A CONSENSUS OF THE ARW...NAM12...AND TEXAS
TECH WRF WAS FOR THIS TO OCCUR BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z.
40
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015/
AVIATION...
VFR FEW-SCT DECKS WITH REGIONAL STREAMER SHOWERS MOVING UP FROM
THE COAST THIS MORNING. MODEST CHANCES FOR SOME OF THESE MID
AFTERNOON CUMULUS TOWERS TO TRANSFORM INTO MID-LATE AFTERNOON
STORMS. HIGHER MOISTURE AND ADDED INSTABILITY BEING BROUGHT IN
FROM AN APPROACHING EASTERLY WAVE/NORTHERN GULF DISTURBANCE WILL
INCREASE THE PROBS OF EXPERIENCING MORE AREAWIDE PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY. GENERALLY...VFR CEILINGS DURING PERIODS OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. A TIGHTER ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE A
MORE MODERATE LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON LOWER LEVEL SOUTHERLY
WIND. 31
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015/
DISCUSSION...
COASTAL SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING AND MOVING INLAND EARLY THIS MORNING...
ESPECIALLY IN/AROUND THE GALVESTON BAY AREA. THIS ACTIVITY LINES UP
WELL WITH THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF A RISING MOISTURE FIELD THAT IS
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE PICTURES AND IS WORKING ITS WAY INTO
THE WESTERN GULF WATERS. EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE TODAY AS SOME OF THIS MOISTURE CONTINUES EDGING INTO OUR AREA.
BUT MUCH BETTER CHANCES ARE STILL ON SCHEDULE BEGINNING TONIGHT NEAR
THE COAST AND THEN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND AND
ON INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS A >2 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR MASS
WORKS ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA. A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL TAP DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE RESULTING IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME...SEE NO REASON TO
CHANGE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE THAT HAD TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
RAINFALL TOTALS RANGING FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES NORTHWEST OF THE HIGHWAY
59 CORRIDOR AND 2 TO 4 INCHES TO THE SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY. IF TRAINING
ACTIVITY SETS UP...PARTS OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY LOCATIONS NEAR/ALONG
THE COAST AND OFFSHORE COULD EASILY SEE TOTALS GREATER THAN 6 INCHES.
OBVIOUSLY...WE WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR HOW EVERYTHING UNFOLDS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS FOR POSSIBLE FLASH FLOOD WATCHES. IF MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING NEXT WEEK EDGES FAR ENOUGH WESTWARD INTO OUR AREA...EXPECT
TO SEE DECREASING RAIN COVERAGE. BUT IF THE RIDGING REMAINS FAR ENOUGH
OFF TO OUR EAST...THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TAP COULD PERSIST RESULTING
IN A CONTINUED THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING.
42
MARINE...
THE TIGHT ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE WESTERN EXPANDING
ATLANTIC HIGH AND LOWERING WESTERN PLAINS PRESSURE HAS STRENGTHENED
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO CAUTION LEVELS. THIS LONG DURATION SOUTHEAST
FETCH EXTENDING ALL THE WAY FROM THE CARIBBEAN WILL AID IN PICKING
UP OFFSHORE SEAS TO 6 TO 8 FEET ON SATURDAY...LIKELY HOISTING
OFFSHORE ADVISORY FLAGS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGHER WEEKEND WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS MAY AID IN GENERATING
STRONGER RIP CURRENTS WHILE PUSHING UP TIDAL LEVELS. PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AN
APPROACHING EASTERLY WAVE WILL INITIATE MORE AREAWIDE PRECIPITATION
EARLY NEXT WEEK. 31
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 90 74 88 73 88 / 20 20 40 30 60
HOUSTON (IAH) 90 76 87 74 87 / 40 40 70 40 70
GALVESTON (GLS) 87 79 86 78 86 / 40 50 70 50 70
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...40
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
549 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015
.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS ARE ON TRACK TO REACH LBB SHORTLY BEHIND AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WITH NELY WINDS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THEIR EROSION IS POOR
AS MODELS HAVE BEEN ABYSMAL WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/S LOCATION
AND STRATUS. LOW CIGS MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON AT ALL
SITES...BUT WILL KEEP VFR ON TRACK BY 18Z OR SO AS NE WINDS SHOULD
VEER E-SE. MOST MORNING TSRA WILL AFFECT CDS WITH ONLY SPOTTY TS
ELSEWHERE.
BY MID-AFTERNOON...THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD THAT +TSRA WITH A
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURSTS WILL DEVELOP JUST WEST OF LBB
AND PVW BEFORE REACHING CDS NEAR 00Z. LOW CIGS SEEM LIKELY AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH ANOTHER THREAT FOR SOME TS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 438 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015/
SHORT TERM...
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL FALL IN THE
CROSSHAIRS FOR SEVERE STORMS LATER TODAY GIVEN MULTIPLE SURFACE
BOUNDARIES...STRONG INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
09Z SURFACE PATTERN FEATURED A COLD FRONT AIDED BY OUTFLOWS EDGING
SOUTH FROM FRIONA- TULIA-VIGO PARK WITH A DRYLINE ACROSS EASTERN
NM. FORTY KNOT LLJ ORIENTED FROM MAF-LBB-AMA HAS BEEN AIDING STORM
REGENERATION ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT...SOME OF WHICH
WILL IMPACT OUR NERN COUNTIES IN THE HOURS AHEAD. IN THE WAKE OF
THESE STORMS...PRESSURE RISES SHOULD RELAX FROM W-E GIVEN A LACK
OF FURTHER REINFORCING OUTFLOWS/MESOHIGHS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE
FRONT TO STALL ALBEIT A FAIR AMOUNT FARTHER SOUTH THAN MOST MODELS
INDICATE AS THEY ARE NOT PROPERLY RESOLVING THE CURRENT PACE OF
THE OUTFLOW /E.G. 35 KNOT NORTHEAST WIND AT CVS AT 850MB AT THE
TIME OF THIS WRITING/.
AS A WEAK UPPER LOW INITIALLY OVER SOUTHERN CO LIFTS NORTHEAST LATER
TODAY...THE BASE OF OF THE TROUGH WILL GRAZE THE SOUTH PLAINS AND
SERVE TO ENHANCE SWLY FLOW ALOFT. 00Z RAOB DATA SHOWED A PRONOUNCED
UPPER JET CORE ACCOMPANYING THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH...SO FORCING FOR
ASCENT TODAY IS IN NO SHORT SUPPLY. DRYLINE SHOULD MIX TO THE TX-NM
STATE LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND GIVE RISE TO A TRIPLE POINT ACROSS OUR
NW COUNTIES. INITIALLY FORMIDABLE EML IS PROGGED TO COOL FROM LOWER
700MB TEMPS EVIDENT UPSTREAM AND IT APPEARS CONVECTIVE INITIATION
SHOULD BE WELL IN HAND BY 20Z-21Z. ERRONEOUSLY HIGH DEWPOINTS OF 70
DEG ON THE CAPROCK PER NAM AND RUC ARE BEING DISMISSED ALONG WITH
THEIR SUBSEQUENT EXTREME CAPE VALUES...HOWEVER MLCAPE APPROACHING
3000 J/KG WILL STILL PROVE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SEVERE EVENTS WITH
SOME SUPERCELL MODES GIVEN 30-40 KNOT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. AMPLE CAPE
IN THE -10C TO -30C LAYER POINTS TO EFFICIENT HAILERS TODAY...BUT
ALL SEVERE MODES INCLUDING THE OFT OVERLOOKED FLOODING THREAT WILL
BE FAIR GAME TODAY. MODEL THEME IS FOR STORMS TO CONGEAL INTO A
LINEAR MCS BEFORE SUNSET WITH A SECOND ROUND OF LARGELY NON-SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT AIDED BY A LLJ ATOP ANY RESIDUAL
OUTFLOWS.
LONG TERM...
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY HINGES QUITE A BIT ON HOW THINGS UNFOLD
TODAY. IF CONVECTION IS ONGOING THROUGH SUNRISE SATURDAY ACROSS
ANY PART OF THE AREA...THAT MAY BE ENOUGH TO STABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON RESULTING IN FEW TO NO STORMS
THROUGH THE DAY. THE MAIN WAVE THAT WILL HAVE HELPED STORMS ON
FRIDAY WILL BE PRETTY FAR NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH ANOTHER WAVE
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS...COMBINED WITH ANOTHER
STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...COULD RESULT IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
LOW-LEVEL JET WOULD ALSO HELP BOOST BULK SHEAR ENOUGH THAT
ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL. ALL THIS
PULLED TOGETHER FAVORS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THE OTHER IMPACT FROM THE INCREASED MOISTURE...CLOUD
COVER...AND PRECIPITATION IS THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN
THE LOW 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION FOR SATURDAY.
FORECAST FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS
GENERALLY WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THE
GFS KEEPS A WEAK TROF AXIS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A WEAK DEFORMATION AXIS ACROSS THE AREA.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NEVER REALLY LEAVES THE REGION AND THE DRYLINE
REMAINS SOMEWHAT A NON-PLAYER AS DAYTIME MIXING WILL BE THE
PRIMARY DRIVER FOR DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS NEXT WEEK. WITH A LACK OF ANY SURFACE BOUNDARIES...OUTSIDE
OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS DAYS CONVECTION...WE MAY
TREND MORE TOWARDS LATE EVENING THROUGH OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IF
WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AS THE GFS SHOWS. ECMWF EVEN
TRANSITIONS TOWARDS THIS FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK SO PRECIPITATION
CHANCES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. BULK SHEAR VALUES SLOWLY DECREASE AS
THE DEFORMATION AXIS KEEPS WEAK WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION BUT
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SHEAR THAT SOME PULSE SEVERE EVENTS MAY BE
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE FAIRLY MILD THANKS TO THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS.
JORDAN
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
438 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL FALL IN THE
CROSSHAIRS FOR SEVERE STORMS LATER TODAY GIVEN MULTIPLE SURFACE
BOUNDARIES...STRONG INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
09Z SURFACE PATTERN FEATURED A COLD FRONT AIDED BY OUTFLOWS EDGING
SOUTH FROM FRIONA- TULIA-VIGO PARK WITH A DRYLINE ACROSS EASTERN
NM. FORTY KNOT LLJ ORIENTED FROM MAF-LBB-AMA HAS BEEN AIDING STORM
REGENERATION ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT...SOME OF WHICH
WILL IMPACT OUR NERN COUNTIES IN THE HOURS AHEAD. IN THE WAKE OF
THESE STORMS...PRESSURE RISES SHOULD RELAX FROM W-E GIVEN A LACK
OF FURTHER REINFORCING OUTFLOWS/MESOHIGHS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE
FRONT TO STALL ALBEIT A FAIR AMOUNT FARTHER SOUTH THAN MOST MODELS
INDICATE AS THEY ARE NOT PROPERLY RESOLVING THE CURRENT PACE OF
THE OUTFLOW /E.G. 35 KNOT NORTHEAST WIND AT CVS AT 850MB AT THE
TIME OF THIS WRITING/.
AS A WEAK UPPER LOW INITIALLY OVER SOUTHERN CO LIFTS NORTHEAST LATER
TODAY...THE BASE OF OF THE TROUGH WILL GRAZE THE SOUTH PLAINS AND
SERVE TO ENHANCE SWLY FLOW ALOFT. 00Z RAOB DATA SHOWED A PRONOUNCED
UPPER JET CORE ACCOMPANYING THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH...SO FORCING FOR
ASCENT TODAY IS IN NO SHORT SUPPLY. DRYLINE SHOULD MIX TO THE TX-NM
STATE LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND GIVE RISE TO A TRIPLE POINT ACROSS OUR
NW COUNTIES. INITIALLY FORMIDABLE EML IS PROGGED TO COOL FROM LOWER
700MB TEMPS EVIDENT UPSTREAM AND IT APPEARS CONVECTIVE INITIATION
SHOULD BE WELL IN HAND BY 20Z-21Z. ERRONEOUSLY HIGH DEWPOINTS OF 70
DEG ON THE CAPROCK PER NAM AND RUC ARE BEING DISMISSED ALONG WITH
THEIR SUBSEQUENT EXTREME CAPE VALUES...HOWEVER MLCAPE APPROACHING
3000 J/KG WILL STILL PROVE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SEVERE EVENTS WITH
SOME SUPERCELL MODES GIVEN 30-40 KNOT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. AMPLE CAPE
IN THE -10C TO -30C LAYER POINTS TO EFFICIENT HAILERS TODAY...BUT
ALL SEVERE MODES INCLUDING THE OFT OVERLOOKED FLOODING THREAT WILL
BE FAIR GAME TODAY. MODEL THEME IS FOR STORMS TO CONGEAL INTO A
LINEAR MCS BEFORE SUNSET WITH A SECOND ROUND OF LARGELY NON-SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT AIDED BY A LLJ ATOP ANY RESIDUAL
OUTFLOWS.
.LONG TERM...
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY HINGES QUITE A BIT ON HOW THINGS UNFOLD
TODAY. IF CONVECTION IS ONGOING THROUGH SUNRISE SATURDAY ACROSS
ANY PART OF THE AREA...THAT MAY BE ENOUGH TO STABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON RESULTING IN FEW TO NO STORMS
THROUGH THE DAY. THE MAIN WAVE THAT WILL HAVE HELPED STORMS ON
FRIDAY WILL BE PRETTY FAR NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH ANOTHER WAVE
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS...COMBINED WITH ANOTHER
STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...COULD RESULT IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
LOW-LEVEL JET WOULD ALSO HELP BOOST BULK SHEAR ENOUGH THAT
ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL. ALL THIS
PULLED TOGETHER FAVORS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THE OTHER IMPACT FROM THE INCREASED MOISTURE...CLOUD
COVER...AND PRECIPITATION IS THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN
THE LOW 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION FOR SATURDAY.
FORECAST FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS
GENERALLY WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THE
GFS KEEPS A WEAK TROF AXIS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A WEAK DEFORMATION AXIS ACROSS THE AREA.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NEVER REALLY LEAVES THE REGION AND THE DRYLINE
REMAINS SOMEWHAT A NON-PLAYER AS DAYTIME MIXING WILL BE THE
PRIMARY DRIVER FOR DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS NEXT WEEK. WITH A LACK OF ANY SURFACE BOUNDARIES...OUTSIDE
OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS DAYS CONVECTION...WE MAY
TREND MORE TOWARDS LATE EVENING THROUGH OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IF
WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AS THE GFS SHOWS. ECMWF EVEN
TRANSITIONS TOWARDS THIS FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK SO PRECIPITATION
CHANCES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. BULK SHEAR VALUES SLOWLY DECREASE AS
THE DEFORMATION AXIS KEEPS WEAK WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION BUT
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SHEAR THAT SOME PULSE SEVERE EVENTS MAY BE
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE FAIRLY MILD THANKS TO THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS.
JORDAN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 80 62 80 63 / 40 40 50 50
TULIA 84 64 79 64 / 70 50 60 60
PLAINVIEW 86 64 80 64 / 70 60 50 50
LEVELLAND 89 65 83 65 / 70 50 50 50
LUBBOCK 89 67 82 66 / 70 60 50 50
DENVER CITY 93 64 89 66 / 30 30 50 50
BROWNFIELD 92 66 87 67 / 60 40 50 50
CHILDRESS 88 70 83 69 / 70 100 60 50
SPUR 91 66 85 69 / 60 100 50 50
ASPERMONT 93 67 89 71 / 40 90 50 40
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
93/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1248 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015
.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...EXPECT DEVELOPING MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY FRIDAY AFTN...FOLLOWED BY PREDOMINATE
VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED
FOR THE COASTAL BEND/VICTORIA CROSSROADS TODAY. LGT ONSHORE FLOW
OVERNIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW DRG THE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 900 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015/
DISCUSSION...EVENING SOUNDING SHOWS NOT MUCH IN CIN THIS EVENING
NEAR THE COAST ALTHOUGH CAP IS DEVELOPING OVER INLAND AREAS
FARTHER WEST. VERY WEAK SHOWERS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ARE
DISSIPATING AS THEY APPROACH THE COAST...AND LITTLE TO NO CAP IS
FORECAST OVER THE GULF OVERNIGHT. WITH COASTAL CONVERGENCE...WILL
MAINTAIN THE 20 POPS FOR THE GULF AND IMMEDIATE COAST OVERNIGHT.
CONSIDERING THAT THE SHOWERS (VERY WEAK) ARE DISSIPATING AS THEY
NEAR THE COAST THIS EVENING...WILL NOT MENTION RAIN FOR THE INLAND
AREAS THIS EVENING...AS HRRR MODEL SHOWS NO ACTIVITY MOVING INLAND
(THOUGH COULD NOT RULE OUT A ROGUE SHOWER BEFORE MIDNIGHT).
OVERALL...WITH A PERSISTENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE MOST
PART...HOWEVER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A TAD WARMER
TONIGHT WITH A BIT MORE WIND. THIS OVERALL IS THE CASE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR INLAND AREAS BUT NEED SOME ADJUSTMENTS HERE
AND THERE. THUS...WILL ISSUE A QUICK UPDATE FOR THIS. OTHER MINOR
CHANGES. OVERALL WIND FORECAST LOOKS FINE. NO CHANGES TO LATER
PERIODS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION.
AVIATION...PERSISTENT CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST WITH ANOTHER
POSSIBILITY FOR FOG TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR ALI. OTHER SITES SHOULD
HAVE MVFR CIGS FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS AREA WIDE. WINDS WILL BE A BIT
GUSTIER ON FRIDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...MID/UPPER SHEAR AXIS
PERSISTS OVER THE TEXAS COAST WHILE SURFACE MOISTURE GRADUALLY
INCREASES OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW MOVING MORE INTO WEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THIS EVENING. BY TOMORROW NIGHT A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AS SEAS INCREASE ALONG WITH
WINDS. CONTINUE TO SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL BEND INTO THE VICTORIA
CROSSROADS WHERE PWAT VALUES ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER. LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT SHEAR AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST WHILE NEXT
MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE DIGS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS ALONG
WITH BETTER MOISTURE PUSHING INTO THE EASTERN ZONES WILL BRING
SLIGHTLY HIGHER (30-40) POPS BY FRIDAY NIGHT. OVERALL...CONTINUE
TO SEE A FAIRLY PERSISTENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST. GUIDANCE STILL
APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE ON THE WARM SIDE FOR THE WESTERN BRUSH
COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS...SO WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S
EAST AND MID TO UPPER 90S WEST. LOWS WILL STAY IN THE 70S AGAIN
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. ANTICIPATE INLAND PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP AGAIN EARLY TOMORROW MORNING OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS WHERE
WINDS WILL BECOME MUCH MORE LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN
THE EXTENDED WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAINS EAST OF THE REGION ON
SATURDAY BUT MODELS PROG PW/S APPROACHING 2 INCHES ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. COMBINATION OF SHEAR AXIS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF
AND WEAKNESSES IN FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TROUGH MOVES
OUT OF MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. FAVORED
LOCATIONS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHERE POPS WILL BE IN THE 50 TO
70 PERCENT RANGE. MAIN THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES MAY BEGIN TO DECREASE SOME BY THE
VERY END OF THE PERIOD AS RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES BEGINS
TO SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST. TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED SHOULD BE AT
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND ANTICIPATED RAIN CHANCES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 91 78 90 78 90 / 20 20 30 20 50
VICTORIA 92 75 89 75 89 / 20 20 40 30 70
LAREDO 97 77 97 78 96 / 10 10 10 10 20
ALICE 94 76 94 77 93 / 10 10 20 20 40
ROCKPORT 91 80 89 80 89 / 20 20 40 30 60
COTULLA 96 76 95 76 95 / 10 10 10 10 20
KINGSVILLE 92 78 92 78 92 / 20 20 20 20 40
NAVY CORPUS 89 80 88 80 89 / 20 20 30 30 50
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
WC/87...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
913 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
.UPDATE...
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A WEAKENING AND EXITING 65 KNOT SPEED
MAX OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IS BRINGING WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE AND
UPWARD MOTION AT 700 MB ACROSS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN TONIGHT.
THE 700 MB 35 KNOT WIND MAX ACROSS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN WILL
WEAKEN AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. PRECIPTABLE WATER VALUES ARE
AROUND 1.75 INCHES...SO THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY CONTAIN SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.
SOME CONCERN ON DENSE FOG NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. HOWEVER WILL HOLD
OFF ON ANY HEADLINES OVER LAND GIVEN THE PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN...WITH A LESSER CHANCE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
TONIGHT. THE CHANCE WILL PERSIST OFF AND ON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
MORNING.
LOOK FOR AREAS OF LIFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY FOG NEAR THE
LAKESHORE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS LIGHT EAST WINDS ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF A WARM FRONT PERSIST.
ELSEWHERE MVFR/IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBY IS LIKELY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
VORTICITY ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WI LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH EVENING. CONTINUOUS 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND 925-700MB BAROCLINIC ZONES HAVE PRIMED SOUTHERN WI FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN.
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT HAS BEEN CREEPING FARTHER NORTH ALL DAY AND
IS CLOSE TO THE WI/IL BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. IT MAY LIFT INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WI THIS EVENING WITH THE SHORTWAVE... BUT THE
RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS WILL KEEP IT FAIRLY STATIONARY
THROUGH SUNDAY.
SURFACE-BASED AND MIXED LAYER CAPE ARE ON THE RISE IN SOUTHEAST WI
THIS AFTERNOON... INLAND FROM THE LAKESHORE. THE MESOSCALE MODELS
SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER FAR SOUTHEAST WI AROUND 22Z. THIS
AREA WILL BE ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CAPE GRADIENT... SO THAT
WOULD SUGGEST THE STRONGER CONVECTION WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AS
SPC SUGGESTS WITH THEIR SLIGHT RISK AREA. THE BUFKIT RAP PROFILE
JUST UPSTREAM FOR RFD SHOWS TALL SKINNY CAPE AND MODERATE SHEAR. WE
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AROUND 1.7
WHICH IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY HIGH. THEREFORE... FORECASTING AVERAGE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH IN SOUTHEAST WI BUT LOCALLY HIGHER
WITHIN ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
PERIODS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE THE REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING DUE TO A VERY SLOW-MOVING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
PERSISTENT RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET OVER SOUTHERN WI.
THE WEAK LAPSE RATES SUGGEST JUST A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER. THE NAM
SEEMS OVERDONE WITH THE CAPE ON SUNDAY.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A DIMINISHING TREND IN PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS. IT APPEARS THAT THE WEAK
SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT EAST OVER LAKE MICHIGAN EARLIER THAN EXPECTED
AND THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH AND MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION/SHOWERS. IF THIS
TREND CONTINUES... SPC SHOULD BE ABLE TO REMOVE SOUTHEAST WI FROM
THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
THIS WEAK FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE WITH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
REMAINING IN A VERY MOIST AIRMASS. PRECIP CHANCES HAVE BEEN
LOWERED SUNDAY EVENING AS ANY FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE LACKING.
WILL INCREASE POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. CAPE VALUES MIGHT
BE PUSHING 800-1000J/KG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AROUND 20-30KTS. NOTHING IMPRESSIVE...BUT WE MIGHT GET A COUPLE
STRONG STORMS OUT OF IT.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.
THIS LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD AS WE GET WITHIN THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. BUT...THE FLOW IS
STILL WEAK AND THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDS HANGING AROUND. WILL HANG ONTO SOME PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT IN CASE THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT HANGS
UP A BIT LONGER...DRY TUESDAY AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR STORMS
ARRIVING TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF BOTH SHOW A SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THIS PERIOD. STABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE NOTHING SPECIAL...BUT WE COULD STILL GET SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE ON
WEDNESDAY...TAPERING OFF WED NIGHT.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
THERE IS LOTS OF MODEL VARIABILITY FROM RUN TO RUN AND THAT/S
CERTAINLY THE CASE FOR THIS PERIOD. BOTH THE EC AND GFS ARE
TRENDING DRY FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. WILL HANG ONTO SOME POPS FOR
NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. BUT...THE FORECAST MAY IMPROVE FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO SPREAD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST WI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST OFF AND ON THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN
SOUTHEAST WI... INCLUDING UES/MKE/ENW... MAINLY FROM 22Z TO 02Z THIS
EVENING.
LOOK FOR AREAS OF FOG NEAR THE LAKESHORE NORTH OF MILWAUKEE THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING AS LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A WARM
FRONT PERSIST.
MVFR VSBY IS LIKELY LATER TONIGHT... POSSIBLY LOWER NEAR THE
LAKESHORE AREAS.
MARINE...
DENSE FOG IS HANGING AROUND THE NEARSHORE AREAS FROM MILWAUKEE AND
NORTH AS VERY HUMID AIR FLOWS OVER THE COLD WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN
AND LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW KEEPS IT LOCKED NEAR THE SHORELINE.
EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ643>645.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...DAVIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1249 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 805 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015
ASOS AND SPOTTER REPORTS INDICATE LESS THAN AN INCH OF RAIN HAS
FALLEN ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE BACKSIDE OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINFALL IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY INTO WESTERN
WISCONSIN...WITH NO ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY UPSTREAM. THE HRRR MODEL
REFLECTS THE CURRENT SITUATION WELL...WITH ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SCENARIO
APPEARS TO GIVE US ONLY 1 TO 2 INCHES OF OVERALL QPF OVER A FAIRLY
LONG PERIOD OF TIME...WHICH LOOKS TO FALL SHORT OF THE FLOOD WATCH
CRITERIA. WITH THE BEST RAINS LOOKING TO STAY TO OUR SOUTH WILL
CANCEL THE FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015
MAIN FCST HEADACHE CONTS TO BE THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS
ACROSS WI TNGT. TREND HAS BEEN SOUTH OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND
BASED OFF OF THE LATEST RADAR MOSAIC...THIS TREND APPEARS TO BE
CORRECT.
THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED AN AREA OF LOW PRES OVER NE KS...
A WRMFNT STRETCHED WEST TO EAST FROM SRN IA TO NRN OH...AND A PAIR
OF WEAK HI PRES AREAS OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND NRN PLAINS.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED PLENTY OF STRATIFORM RAIN (LIGHT TO
MODERATE INTENSITY) OVER ALL BUT NW WI. THIS PCPN CAME IN FASTER
AND FOCUSED FARTHER SOUTH THAN ANTICIPATED YESTERDAY.
THE SFC LOW TO NOW TRACK E-NE INTO NRN IL TNGT WHICH IS FARTHER
SOUTH THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT 24 HOURS AGO. HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
STILL EXISTS...BUT THE MAIN AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO BE
FOCUSED ACROSS THE SRN THIRD OF WI WITH CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI ON THE
NRN FRINGES OF THE MAX QPF. HAVE ALREADY DROPPED THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AND ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH ESSENTIALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
MARSHFIELD TO KEWAUNEE DUE TO RIVERS/STREAMS STILL HIGH FROM LAST
WEEK`S RAINS. HAVE ALSO TRIMMED BACK ON PCPN TOTALS WITH A RANGE
MORE IN THE 0.5 TO 1.5" RANGE. LASTLY...WL END THE PCPN THREAT
ACROSS N-CNTRL WI TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO PULL
AWAY. MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPR 40S N-CNTRL WI...TO
THE MID 50S E-CNTRL WI.
AS THE SFC LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRI MORNING...ANY
LINGERING PCPN OVER ERN WI WL COME TO AN END. MODELS ARE NOW
QUICKER BRINGING AN AREA OF HI PRES INTO WI BY MIDDAY FRI...THUS
EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS AND BUMP UP IN TEMPS AS A RESULT. LOOK
FOR MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NEAR LAKE MI...AROUND 70
DEGS E-CNTRL WI AND LWR TO MID 70S CNTRL WI.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAYEVENING
AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND UPPER RIDING ARRIVES
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WEAKENING UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST
FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL DRIVE A
SURFACE WARM FRONT NORTH FROM ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
RAIN AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BR GULF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE SO ANOTHER INCH OR MORE OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
IT SHOULD BE DRY MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH FAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES. AN UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
OR EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS BECOME GREATER TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL MOST OF THE TIME...WITH THE
WARMEST DAYS BEING SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND THE COOLEST DAYS
THURSDAY AND PERHAPS FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MFI-MNM...THEN TAPER OFF FRIDAY MORNING.
EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL IN THE STEADIER RAIN...WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FARTHER NORTHWEST. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ON FRI AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS AND WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WI.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........KURIMSKI
SHORT TERM.....AK
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......PK/TSK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1153 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015
CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED TROUGHS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA...THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND
FROM NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...WHILE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
WAS PRESENT OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.. THE TROUGHING JUST TO OUR WEST
IS COMPOSED OF MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES...EACH OF WHICH HAS PROVIDED
DYNAMIC FORCING AND SURGES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO DRIVE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS IOWA INTO THE FORECAST AREA. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE
EXISTS FOR THE PRECIPITATION NOTED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.5 TO 2
INCHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA PER RAP ANALYSIS...HIGHEST IN IOWA.
THE ONE THING NOT WORKING IN OUR FAVOR FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS
INSTABILITY. THE MAIN WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STUCK NEAR I-80
DUE TO COOL AIR OUTFLOW FROM THE SHOWERS TO THE NORTH. ALL OF THE
CAPE AS SEEN ON SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE RESIDES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. THIS HAS BEEN TOO FAR SOUTH TO ALLOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF
THUNDERSTORM GENERATION IN OUR FORECAST AREA...KEEPING PRECIPITATION
RATES MUCH LOWER. REGARDING THE COOL OUTFLOW...TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN STUCK MOST OF THE DAY FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. TO THE
NORTHWEST...MUCH DRIER AIR WAS NOTED FROM NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN
MN WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS 0.75-1 INCH. AS A RESULT...SKIES ARE
MOSTLY SUNNY THERE.
SOME BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY DUE TO 3
REASONS...
1. WARM FRONT REMAINING STUCK NEAR I-80 HOLDING INSTABILITY FROM
MOVING NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
2. TROUGH FROM SOUTHERN MN INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA MOVING EAST
QUICKER.
3. A LINEAR MCS EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTH OF OMAHA SHORTLY...WHICH THEN
TRACKS EAST AND INTERCEPTS MUCH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT.
RAP AND HRRR MODEL RUNS THROUGHOUT THE DAY HAVE BEEN CONTINUOUSLY
BACKING OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION OUR FORECAST AREA WOULD
SEE THROUGH TONIGHT...AS A RESULT OF THE 3 ITEMS ABOVE. THE FORECAST
HAS BEEN FOLLOWING SUIT...THUS CAUSING CANCELLATIONS TO THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH. THERE STILL IS POTENTIAL THIS EVENING FOR THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF THE LINEAR MCS TO LIFT THROUGH EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BROUGHT UP AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THUS...HAVE LEFT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. HOWEVER...IF IT LOOKS LIKE
THIS EVENING THE LINEAR MCS WILL STAY ON AN EASTWARD TRACK...THEN
THE WATCH CAN BE DROPPED.
11.12Z NAM/ECMWF/GFS HAVE ALSO FOLLOW SUIT WITH THE FASTER EXIT OF
PRECIPITATION SUCH THAT ALL THREE BASICALLY HAVE THE FORECAST AREA
DRIED OUT AT 12Z FRI...EXCEPT MAYBE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS IN
THE SOUTH A FEW HOURS LATER. HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO FOLLOW
SUIT AND SPED UP THE EXIT OF PRECIPITATION. WE MAY NEED TO EVEN
SPEED IT UP MORE.
ALONG WITH THE SPEED UP OF THE TROUGH COMES A QUICKER ENTRANCE OF
THE DRIER AIR EVIDENT ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MN. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER NORTH OF I-90 DROPS BELOW 1 INCH. THUS...WE
SHOULD SEE A CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THE DRIER AIR MEANS
BETTER MIXING...THUS ALSO BOOSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES
NORTH OF I-90.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO MUCH OF SATURDAY STILL LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH
THE AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
HOWEVER...STARTING TO SEE SOME CHANGES IN THE MODEL RUNS TO INCREASE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IN THE 11.12Z
ECMWF. AS A RESULT...CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN INCREASED...TEMPERATURES
LOWERED SLIGHTLY...AND HAVE BROUGHT IN SOME LOW PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR NORTHEAST IOWA.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY STILL LOOKS INTERESTING WITH ALL MODELS
WANTING TO BRING A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CURRENT UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WE
SEE A DECENT SURGE OF BOTH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND 1.5-2
INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. THE QUESTION IS GOING TO BE THE
EXACT TRACK OF THIS SHORTWAVE AND THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. THERE
REMAINS A GOOD AMOUNT OF SPREAD BETWEEN THE 11.12Z NAM...ECMWF...GFS
AND CANADIAN ON THE TRACK...BUT THEY ALL DEPICT SOME SHOWERS AND
STORMS AFFECTING THE AREA. THEREFORE...STILL MAINTAINED 50-70
PERCENT CHANCES BUT QPF IS NOT TOO HIGH YET. IF THE LAST MANY RUNS
OF THE ECMWF ARE RIGHT...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT 1 TO LOCALLY 2
INCHES. LUCKILY WE HAVE ALMOST 2 DAYS TO DRY OUT FROM THE CURRENT
RAIN...PLUS WE ARE NOT ENDING UP WITH AS MUCH OUT OF THE CURRENT
RAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL GO UP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MAKING IT
FEEL MORE STICKY. HARD TO DISCERN SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AT THIS
TIME...THOUGH.
THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY IN BRITISH COLUMBIA IS PROGGED BY MODELS
TO SWEEP ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE
APPEARS TO BE A TREND IN MODELS FOR THIS TROUGH TO HAVE MAYBE A
LITTLE BIT MORE INFLUENCE ON US...DRIVING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN BEHIND
IT FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. GIVEN THIS TREND DEVELOPING...HAVE CUT
BACK ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THESE DAYS AND WE MAY EVENTUALLY
BE ABLE TO GO ENTIRELY DRY IF TRENDS CONTINUE. 850MB TEMPS IN THE 10-
14C RANGE PLUS DRY AIR SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S.
THE 11.00Z/12Z ECMWF/GFS STILL POINT TO A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH MAYBE SOME HINTS TOWARDS RIDGING AS WE
APPROACH LATE THU FROM TROUGHING DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
HARD TO TIME RIGHT NOW SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THIS ZONAL
FLOW...BUT IT APPEARS THERE COULD BE ONE COMING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY
WITH A SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM RISK. ANOTHER RISK COULD COME IN BY
LATE THURSDAY. THEREFORE...THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO DEPICT 20 TO 40
PERCENT CHANCES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE STARTS
TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION. IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND BR WILL LINGER
TONIGHT THEN SHOULD IMPROVE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. LOOK FOR MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY
IMPROVING TO VFR BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
THEN PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015
THE FIRST WAVE OF PRECIPITATION SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS
EXPECTED...BRINGING ANYWHERE FROM 1/3 TO A LITTLE OVER 1 INCH OF
RAINFALL...HEAVIEST IN FAR SOUTHWEST WI. THE SECOND WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION...WHICH THE PAST FEW DAYS LOOKED TO SET UP FROM
SOUTHEAST MN INTO CENTRAL WI...NOW LOOKS TO TRACK WELL TO THE SOUTH
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-80. ADDITIONALLY...THE SECOND WAVE OF PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE EAST QUICKER. THEREFORE...THE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LOWERED...NOW ONLY AN ADDITIONAL 1/2 TO
1.5 INCHES...HIGHEST FROM EASTERN IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL WI.
WITH THE LOWER TOTALS...RIVERS DO NOT LOOK NEARLY AS CONCERNING FOR
FLOODING. MAY STILL NEED TO WATCH BASINS SUCH AS THE KICKAPOO AND
TURKEY GIVEN THEY LOOK TO PICK UP THE MOST RAINFALL.
LOOKING AHEAD...ANOTHER 1 TO LOCALLY 2 INCHES COULD FALL SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LESSER RAINFALL FROM TODAY AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY TO SATURDAY FOR WATER TO FLOW
DOWNSTREAM...WE MAY BE ABLE TO ABSORB THE RAIN. STILL SOMETHING TO
WATCH...THOUGH.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WETENKAMP
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
HYDROLOGY...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
254 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAST OF THE SHOWERS THAT WERE LINED UP ALONG THE ALABAMA/GEORGIA
BORDER HAVE DISSIPATED WITH JUST A LEFTOVER BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE LOCAL AREA AND DEVELOPING MID AND UPPER
LEVEL HIGH ON THE RAP ALLOWED FOR MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ON SATURDAY.
EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH 500MB HIGH BECOMING JUST A
TAF STRONGER AT 592DM. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND ALTHOUGH ATLANTA BARELY ESCAPED THE FIRST
90 DEGREE DAY OF THE YEAR YESTERDAY...IT SHOULD BE EASILY REACHED
TODAY. SHIED AWAY FROM BIAS CORRECTED AS WE ENTER A NEW WEATHER
PATTERN AND IT SEEMED CORRECTION WAS JUST TOO LOW FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST. INSTEAD WENT CLOSER TO THE RAW MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH
YIELDS VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL GEORGIA.
FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS...ONE COULD ARGUE FOR NIL POPS GIVEN STRENGTH
AND ORIENTATION OF STACKED MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH. FOR ME
THOUGH...JUST TOO MUCH MOISTURE AND PRECIPITABLE WATER TO KEEP
POPS COMPLETELY OUT. WILL WAIT AND SEE HOW TODAY UNFOLDS AND MAYBE
THEN WE CAN REMOVE FOR MONDAY. USUALLY IN PATTERNS LIKE THESE WE
HAVE PWATS RIGHT AT AND INCH OR LOWER WHEREAS WE ARE CLOSER TO 1.5
INCHES FOR THIS EVENT.
SIMILAR TEMP FORECAST FOR MONDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 90S AREA WIDE
AND HEAT INDICES IN THE LOWER 100S FOR SE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
DEESE
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM BUT THIS RIDGE ISNT STRONG ENOUGH THOUGH TO SHUT OFF
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. STILL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE
WITH PW VALUES EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES SO EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUE-WED. BY THURSDAY A SHORTWAVE IS
TRAVERSING THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND AS IT LIFTS THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY FRIDAY...THIS WILL PROVIDE MORE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA.
INSTABILITY INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. WITH MUCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 2500 J/KG ACROSS
NORTH GEORGIA...ANY FOCUS FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE
ACROSS THAT AREA...MAINLY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
MAIN STORY THOUGH REALLY CONTINUES TO BE THE HEAT. HEAT INDICES ARE
BETWEEN 100 AND 104 ACROSS EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA EACH DAY. TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY THE HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER
THAN THE REST OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER ITS SUCH A SUBTLE DIFFERENCE
THAT IT WONT BE NOTICEABLE. EVEN THOUGH WE ARE JUST BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE LONG TERM...ITS STILL GOING TO BE HOT AND
FOLKS NEED TO FOLLOW HEAT SAFETY RULES SUCH AS LIMITING TIME
OUTDOORS AND DRINKING PLENTY OF WATER.
11
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 06-14
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 101 1921 74 1906 74 2010 52 1995
1981 1985
1958
KATL 96 1958 71 1955 78 1880 54 1968
1948
1914
KMCN 102 1963 73 1933 77 1958 53 1995
1921 1968
RECORDS FOR 06-15
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 99 1918 71 1965 76 1998 55 1933
KATL 96 1952 68 1884 76 1998 50 1917
1943
KMCN 100 2011 70 1955 78 1998 54 1995
2010
RECORDS FOR 06-16
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 100 1911 62 1961 74 1924 50 1917
KATL 98 1936 66 1927 74 1943 47 1917
1934
1920
KMCN 99 1964 69 1927 75 1964 50 1917
1920
1911
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
SEEING SOME MVFR REDUCED VSBY AT SOME AREA METAR SITE BUT EXPECT
THESE TO BE TEMPORARY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE FOR THIS
TAF CYCLE ONE AGAIN. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT TO WARRANT
A FEW030 INITIALLY AT 16Z BUT QUICKLY RISING BASES TO AROUND 6K
FEET BY 18Z. WILL BE MAINTAINING LOW END TSRA CHANCES IN THE GRIDS
BUT CERTAINLY NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN ANY TAFS AT THIS
POINT.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.
DEESE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 96 72 98 73 / 20 20 20 10
ATLANTA 93 74 94 75 / 20 20 20 10
BLAIRSVILLE 89 66 90 67 / 20 20 20 20
CARTERSVILLE 94 70 95 71 / 20 20 20 10
COLUMBUS 96 73 97 74 / 20 20 20 10
GAINESVILLE 93 72 94 73 / 20 20 20 10
MACON 97 71 97 73 / 20 20 20 10
ROME 94 70 96 70 / 20 20 20 10
PEACHTREE CITY 94 70 94 71 / 20 20 20 10
VIDALIA 97 74 97 74 / 20 20 20 10
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...DEESE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
307 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
07Z/2AM RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS
LARGELY LIFTED INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS...LEAVING BEHIND ONLY WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. AS HAS
BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS...A LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES WILL
BE OBSERVED THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING. ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY...A FEW PEEKS OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW SBCAPE VALUES TO
RISE INTO THE 1500 TO 2000J/KG RANGE LATER TODAY. DESPITE MODERATE
INSTABILITY...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST 0-6KM SHEAR WILL DECREASE
INTO THE 15 TO 20KT RANGE. THE WEAK SHEAR ALONG WITH THE ABSENCE OF
A STRONG FORCING MECHANISM WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD/ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER FROM OCCURRING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION...WITH THE GREATEST
CONCENTRATION NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. THANKS TO COPIOUS AMOUNTS
OF MOISTURE IN THE ENVIRONMENT...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM WEAKENING/DECAYING
STORMS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND
DEEP-LAYER GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD
AROUND THE HIGH INTO THE MIDWEST. SEVERAL SHORT-WAVES TRACKING
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL ATTEMPT TO FLATTEN THE PREVAILING
RIDGE...BUT WILL BE UNSUCCESSFUL UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK.
THE FIRST WAVE CURRENTLY OVER ALBERTA/MONTANA WILL TRACK EASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS BY TUESDAY. AS THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT
APPROACH...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY LEAD TO A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GFS SHOWS
SBCAPES ONCE AGAIN REACHING THE 1500-2000J/KG RANGE WHILE 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR CLIMBS TO 30-35KT ACROSS THE N/NW CWA. WITH STRONGER FORCING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MORE FAVORABLE INSTABILITY/SHEAR PARAMETERS
DEVELOPING...THINK THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND HAIL WILL INCREASE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
LATEST DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC PLACES ALL OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE ACCORDINGLY.
FRONT WILL SAG INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS ON TUESDAY...THEN STALL AS IT
BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR.
ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE WILL TRACK OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY...FLATTENING THE SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE JUST
ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE PREVAILING BAROCLINIC ZONE TO SLIP SOUTHWARD.
WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS ON WEDNESDAY...THEN WILL DECREASE TO
CHANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. FURTHER OUT...MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A RELATIVELY DRY PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ONLY POSSIBLE FLY-IN-THE-OINTMENT IS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MAY TRACK NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF
LATER IN THE WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS FEATURE
BRINGING PRECIP TO THE SOUTHEAST CWA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS...AS DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK STILL
REMAIN IN QUESTION. ASIDE FROM THIS POSSIBLE LOW...OVERALL UPPER
FLOW PATTERN WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY...LEADING
TO WARM/MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES NEXT 24HRS EXCEPT FOR
CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED ENOUGH THAT ANY PCPN REMAINING ACROSS THE
AREA WILL BE SHOWERS. SO HAVE VCSH FOR ALL SITES THROUGH ABOUT
10Z. HRRR SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE WITH PCPN CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING SO THINK PCPN WILL END WITH CLOUDS
SCATTERING OUT FOR THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. LIKE
TODAY...THINK SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE AREA
SO HAVE VCTS AT ALL SITES TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHICH WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...BARNES
AVIATION...AUTEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1158 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 920 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
WILL MAKE A QUICK UPDATE TO SPRUCE UP POPS/WX AND WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT TOO. REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS FINE. UPDATE
OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
MOIST DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO PROVIDE PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. ALTHOUGH
ATMOSPHERE ISN`T QUITE AS MOIST AS YESTERDAY (PER 12Z KILX
SOUNDING). POTENTIAL STILL REMAINS FOR SOME EFFICIENT CONVECTION
AND POSSIBLE PRECIP LOADING PRODUCING STRONG WINDS. ALTHOUGH
INITIAL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON HAS DEVELOPED IN SAME AREA AS
LAST NIGHTS LINE WHERE INSTABILITY AXIS REMAINS...LATEST MESOSCALE
MODELS SUGGEST PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING OVER MISSOURI WILL BE
BIGGER ORGANIZED THREAT AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN
ILLINOIS. INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL LIKELY BE PRIMED TO PRODUCE
LOCALIZED STRONG WINDS. IF ORGANIZED LINES CAN DEVELOP...THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS.
LATEST HRRR SUGGEST SCATTERED CONVECTION EAST OF I-55 WILL BE MORE
DIURNAL IN NATURE DRIVEN BY INSTABILITY AND A LACK OF SHEAR. MORE
SHEAR IS PROGGED OVER WESTERN ILLINOIS AND PRECIP MAY LINGER INTO
THE EARLY MORNING.
GROUND REMAINS LOCALLY SATURATED AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
LEADS TO SOME FLOODING POTENTIAL IN WESTERN ILLINOIS PER MPD ISSUED
BY WPC. AN ESF HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LONG-RANGE HEAVY RAIN THREAT AND
WILL MENTION POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IN GRIDS AND WORDED FORECASTS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 4 DAYS...AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS ACROSS ILLINOIS AND A LARGE RIDGE IN
THE SOUTHEAST STATES PROVIDES A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW INTO
ILLINOIS. PERIODIC SHORTWAVES, SOME CONVECTIVELY INDUCED, WILL
RIDE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE LARGE
UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE WAVES IN THE MODELS.
HOWEVER, THERE IS ENOUGH AGREEMENT OVER ABNORMALLY HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT AND MODERATE INSTABILITY THAT WE KEPT LARGE PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS IN LIKELY POPS EACH PERIOD THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
SEVERE CHANCES APPEAR TO BE HIGHER ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVE AND AGAIN
ON MONDAY, BUT WE CANT RULE OUT INCREASING CHANCES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THOSE DAYS GET CLOSER. PRECIP LOADING IN MANY
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE
DOWNBURST WINDS. 0-6KM WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 30KT,
WITH UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORMS TRAINING IN A
LINE. SO MAIN HAZARDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE DAMAGING WINDS AND FLASH
FLOODING. WILL MONITOR HAIL POTENTIAL, SINCE EVEN A SLIGHT LOWERING
OF THE FREEZING LEVEL WOULD INCREASE HAIL PRODUCTION.
WE CONSIDERED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH, BUT MODEL UNCERTAINTIES HAVE KEPT
A LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION SEEING THE AXIS OF HEAVY
RAINS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY IN THE COMING MODEL RUNS FOR
A POTENTIAL OPPORTUNITY TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA OF CONCERN. FOR NOW,
WILL HIGHLIGHT THE FLOODING THREAT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
THE FAR EXTENDED STILL CONTAINS POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY THROUGH
SATURDAY, BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT MAY SAG FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF OUR COUNTIES TO PROVIDE MORE SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN
THE RAIN CHANCES FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES NEXT 24HRS EXCEPT FOR
CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED ENOUGH THAT ANY PCPN REMAINING ACROSS THE
AREA WILL BE SHOWERS. SO HAVE VCSH FOR ALL SITES THROUGH ABOUT
10Z. HRRR SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE WITH PCPN CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING SO THINK PCPN WILL END WITH CLOUDS
SCATTERING OUT FOR THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. LIKE
TODAY...THINK SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE AREA
SO HAVE VCTS AT ALL SITES TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHICH WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AUTEN
SHORT TERM...BARKER
LONG TERM...SHIMON
AVIATION...AUTEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
130 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1041 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN FROM RECENT STORMS HAS LED TO FLOODING IN
MANY LOCATIONS...SEE THE LATEST STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS. IN THE
NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE TOWARDS MORNING. OTHERWISE...LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 60S AND LOW TO MID 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
AIRMASS BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTN WITH RAP ANALYSIS
SUGGESTING MLCAPES 2.0-2.5KJ/KG. WINDS ALOFT HAVE DECREASED SOME
SINCE YDAY AS RIDGE HAS BUILT NNW FROM THE SERN CONUS... STILL MODEST
SWLY FLOW WAS RESULTING IN EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 25-30KT
ACROSS THE AREA WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO THERE IS SOME DRY AIR ALOFT EVIDENT ON THE WATER
VAPOR LOOP AND BUFR FCST SOUNDINGS RESULTING IN MAX SFC DELTA
THETA-E VALUES >30K... SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR MICROBURSTS AND
CONSIDERABLE CAPE THROUGH THE -10C TO -30C LAYER SUPPORTING HAIL
GROWTH WITH ANY DEEP CONVECTION. MAIN FORCING MECHANISM APPEARS
TO BE A WK SHRTWV MOVG NE ACROSS NWRN IL WITH STORMS NOW DVLPG TO
ITS S-SE ACROSS CENTRAL IL/IN.
ANOTHER SHRTWV OVER THE SRN PLAINS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE INTO THE
WRN GRTLKS REGION TONIGHT AND THEN EAST OVER THE TOP OF THE SERN
CONUS RIDGE ON SUNDAY. EXPECT AN MCS WILL DEVELOP AT NOSE OF LLJ
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE TONIGHT IMPACTING NWRN PORTION OF THE
CWA FIRST... THEN SHIFTING EAST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. GIVEN
THIS EXPECTATION WILL BE BUMPING UP POPS FROM CHC TO LIKELY FOR
TONIGHT OVER MOST OF THE CWA... WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE TO GOING
LIKELYS FOR SUNDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL A POSSIBILITY IN THIS TIMEFRAME
GIVEN PWATS AROUND 2"... SMALL FCST MBE VECTORS... AND EXPECTED
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH LOWS TONIGHT AROUND 70. EXPECT CLOUDS
SHOWERS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO HOLD TEMPS DOWN A BIT OVER RECENT DAYS
ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS FCST IN THE L80S.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL PERSIST OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL APPROACH
THE JUNE CLIMATOLOGICAL RECORDS NEAR 2.25 INCHES ON SEVERAL
OCCASIONS. GIVEN A LONG DURATION OF THESE HIGH VALUES...CAPE VALUES
GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000 J/KG COMBINED WITH A DEEP WARM CLOUD
LAYER...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING FLOODING.
HAVE UPDATED THE HYDROLOGICAL OUT THAT WAS ISSUED TO REFLECT THE
RISK OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING. WPC/NCEP WAS INDICATING A SEVEN DAY
AXIS OF 6 INCHES OF HEAVY RAIN NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVED FROM ILLINOIS
TO OHIO. THESE HIGH AMOUNTS ARE SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST RUNS OF THE
GFS...ECMWF AND THE CANADIAN GEM. ALSO...RECENT RAINFALL ANALYSIS BY
AHPS SHOW 2 WEEK TOTAL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 2 AND 6 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY
7 INCHES OF RAIN. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS SINCE MAY 31ST ARE SUPPORTED
BY COCORAHS OBSERVATIONS. ALL CONDSIDERED...HAVE UPDATED THE ESF
STATEMENT WITH THESE CONCERNS. OTHERWISE...THERE COULD BE A SHORT
BREAK IN THE HUMID PATTERN LATE THIS WEEK...BUT FOR NOW...WAS
HESITANT TO LOWER SUPERBLEND RAIN CHANCES. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES
APPEAR FAIRLY LOW THIS PERIOD...NOT COUNTING THE CHANCES FOR
FLOODING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING BRIEF BREAK IN CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA
BUT MORE STORMS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING AS MULTIPLE EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES LIFT NORTHEAST IN EXCEPTIONALLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT.
CONVECTION CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF CHICAGO MAY CLIP KSBN A BIT
EARLIER BUT LATEST HI-RES/RAPID UPDATE MODELS SUGGEST THIS
ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN AND STAY JUST NORTHWEST OF THE TERMINAL. HAVE
THEREFORE LEFT OUT ANY THUNDER MENTION BUT SHOWERS WILL BE
INCREASINGLY LIKELY AS NEXT WAVE APPROACHES. BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING REMAINS LOW.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...AGD
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
332 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE FORECAST TODAY WAS PRECIP CHANCES...OR LACK
THEREOF AND TEMPERATURES. TRENDED TOWARD A DRIER FORECAST FOR
TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN TO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE DRIER
FORECAST FOR TODAY AND UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE NAM/ECMWF.
A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER IOWA IS SLOW TO SLIDE
EAST-NORTHEAST TODAY AND SHOULD KEEP THE PRECIP ACTIVITY...IF ANY
DEVELOPS...CONFINED TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. NAM SHOWS A FEW
RIPPLES OF THETA-E ADVECTION AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TODAY OVER SOUTHERN IOWA. 14.06Z HRRR AND 14.03Z HOPWRF SHOW
ISOLATED POP-UP TS/SHOWERS BUT WEAK SHEAR AND MINIMAL INSTABILITY
WILL KEEP ANYTHING FROM BEING LONG-LIVED. STILL...THE AIRMASS HAS
NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS WRT TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGE IN THE 1.5-2.0 INCH
RANGE AND WARM LAYER CLOUD DEPTHS RANGE FROM 3800-4000 METERS IN
SOUTHERN IOWA. HENCE...IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP IT SHOULD HAVE SOME
DECENT RAINFALL RATES FOR SHORT STINT BUT NOT CONCERNED WITH FLASH
FLOODING DUE TO THE SHORT-LIVED NATURE OF STORMS AND LACK OF
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TODAY.
FOR TEMPERATURES...SINCE WENT DRY ACROSS THE WEST TO NORTH AND
LOWERED POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST...LEANED TOWARD RAISING MAX TEMPS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES. MOS GUIDANCE HAS CAUGHT ONTO THIS TREND AND
LEANED CLOSER THE METMOS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOUTHERN
IOWA LOOKS TO REMAIN THE COOLEST WITH THE MORE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIP CHANCES.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
IN THE EXTENDED...PATTERN TO EVOLVE VERY SLOWLY THIS WEEK...WITH
SOME WARMING TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE MUCH COOLER AIR
BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE REGION. LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AGAIN
TONIGHT...MODELS OF LITTLE ASSISTANCE LAST NIGHT THOUGH RAIN DID
FALL JUST TO THE EAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY. SFC ANALYSIS
THIS EVENING SHOWS THAT THE BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION YESTERDAY
LIFTED NORTHEAST AND BASICALLY WEAKENED. WHAT WAVE DID EXIST ALOFT
ALSO LIFTED MORE NORTHEAST THAN NORTH RESULTING IN THE H850
MOISTURE CHANNEL FOCUSED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE AREA...KEEPING
THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL IN EASTERN IOWA
TO WISCONSIN. NEXT CHALLENGE IS THE UPSTREAM WAVE PROGGED TO
AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LEE SIDE TROUGH ADVERTISED TO
DRIFT NORTHEAST ONCE AGAIN WITH ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM COOL FRONT
HEADING SOUTHEAST TOWARD IOWA MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE
TWO SYSTEMS /SHOULD/ RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS BUT LIKE LAST
NIGHT...SIMILAR WEAKENING OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE AND LIGHT
WINDS AT H850 MAY RESULT IN A MORE NARROW BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTH OF THE REGION...THOUGH COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD
INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS WEAK LOW LEVEL JET FORMS OVER MISSOURI.
FOR NOW HAVE CUT BACK ON CHANCES NORTH WITH FOCUS CLOSER TO THE
SOUTH THIRD OF IOWA TOWARD THE MISSOURI BORDER LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY. AS THE COOL FRONT APPROACHES NORTHWEST IOWA LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...LIKELY THAT ONLY SHOWERS AND ISO
THUNDER WILL OCCUR NORTH UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON... WHEN ACROSS THE
SOUTH THE BOUNDARY BECOMES MORE ACTIVE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER RETURNS. AT THIS
TIME AM NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN TERMS OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL
IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS SO WILL NOT NEED HEADLINES. THOUGH STORMS MAY
BE SLOW MOVERS...LIKELY THAT WIND FIELDS WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH TO
KEEP STORMS FROM ORGANIZING.
PER PREVIOUS FORECASTS...TUESDAY LOOKS COOLER AND LESS HUMID
OVERALL WITH ABOUT A DAY OF MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS BEFORE ANOTHER
WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ONCE THE HIGH RETREATS EAST TUESDAY
NIGHT...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL INDUCE A LEE SIDE LOW
AND ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY. FINALLY
TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD A MORE SIGNIFICANT NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM SHOULD ARRIVE LATE IN THE WEEK. TIMING IS STILL IN
QUESTION BUT THE MODELS TODAY ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SOME MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION...POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S AGAIN BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A LOT DEPENDS ON CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS AND IF A H700 CAP INDEED FORMS. WITH A BAND OF MUCH STRONGER
WESTERLIES INTERACTING WITH THE VERY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS BY
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THE STAGE SHOULD BE SET FOR AN ACTIVE PERIOD
OF SUMMER STORMS BEFORE MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES ON SUNDAY. SOME
TIMING ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS RANGE...BUT THE SIGNAL FOR MORE
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS BECOMING MORE
APPARENT.
&&
.AVIATION...14/06Z
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
VCSH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT KOTM FOR BEGINNING OF PERIOD BEFORE
DISSIPATING. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR SITES TO DROP
TO MVFR OR IFR VISIBILITIES AT TIMES NEAR 12Z...WITH MVFR
CEILINGS ALSO POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE AFTER
12Z...WITH WINDS BEING SOUTHERLY THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD. LATE IN
PERIOD MAY SEE SHRA/TSRA AT SOUTHERN SITES KDSM/KOTM BUT HAVE NOT
INCLUDED MENTION ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING/PLACEMENT.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...AWB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
319 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
06Z SFC DATA SUGGESTS A WEAK FRONT/BOUNDARY FROM SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO NORTHEAST IOWA. A SECONDARY FRONT/BOUNDARY RAN FROM
CENTRAL INDIANA INTO SOUTHERN IOWA. DEW POINTS NORTH OF THE FIRST
BOUNDARY WERE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. SOUTH OF THE SECOND BOUNDARY
DEW POINTS WERE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
THE WEAK CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS/SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNRISE. A
SATURATED ATMOSPHERE COMBINED WITH WEAK LIFT FROM TWO SEPARATE
BOUNDARIES WILL ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PERSIST
THROUGH SUNRISE. ANY BRIEF CLEARING THAT OCCURS WILL ALLOW PATCHY
FOG TO DEVELOP.
AFTER SUNRISE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
AREA WITH A GRADUAL DECAY FROM MID TO LATE MORNING AND INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IF TRENDS FROM THE RAP ARE CORRECT...A
NEW ROUND OF SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THE I-80 CORRIDOR EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
ANY WEAK HEATING THAT OCCURS DURING THE DAY WILL ALLOW A NEW ROUND
OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
TONIGHT...INTERNAL SIGNALS FROM THE MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPING BETWEEN KOMA AND KSTJ. IF THIS
SCENARIO IS CORRECT...THIS STORM COMPLEX WOULD SLOWLY MOVE EAST OR
EAST NORTHEAST AND MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE CONTINUED
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE COMBINED WITH WEAK FLOW
ALOFT POINTS TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER
STORMS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
DRY WEATHER DAYS FOR THE ENTIRE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO BE HARD TO COME
BY...AS OUR EXTENDED FORECAST IS DOMINATED BY WEAK FLOW...AND OUR
CWA IS ON THE PERIPHERY OF A VERY MOIST AIRMASS. THIS TYPE OF
PATTERN DOES NOT REQUIRE STRONG FORCING FOR RAIN TO TAKE PLACE...AS
NOTED BY THE PAST 36 HOURS...WHERE THE RAINS JUST KEEP FALLING. IT
DOES APPEAR THAT AS A TROPICAL LOW MOVES UP INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY...WE MAY SEE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE
TO PROVIDE A DRY PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY IN THE NORTH. AS
HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW DAYS...THERE SHOULD BE A GENERAL
DIURNAL UPTICK IN COVERAGE OF STORMS...INCLUDING A PERIOD WHERE
STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINS WILL BE A THREAT. THESE MAY EVOLVE
INTO CLUSTERS...BEFORE DECAYING TO SHOWERS LIKE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.
THE BEST THREAT FOR RAINS DOES SEEM TO BE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA...WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE OVER IOWA AND
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. AS SAID...FORCING IS WEAK...BUT WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE AND NO CAP...WE SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
OF STORMS. SPC DOES HAVE OUR EASTERN CWA IN SLIGHT FOR DAY 2. I
BELIEVE THAT THREAT IS LARGELY DIURNAL...AND PROBABLY TIED MAINLY
HEAVY RAIN LOADED DOWNDRAFTS. WITHOUT A CAP...WE SHOULD READILY USE
UP OUR CAPE...RATHER THAN GETTING THINGS TOO UNSTABLE...THUS I THINK
THE THREAT IS LIMITED TO ISOLATED EVENTS. WHILE NOT A WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAIN EVENT...ISOLATED HEAVY RAINS TOTALS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ANY OF THESE COULD BE PROBLEMATIC FOR A
FLASH FLOOD THREAT GIVEN HOW VERY SATURATED OUR SOILS ARE AT THIS
POINT. HOWEVER...SINCE THE THREAT IS NOT CLEAR IN WHERE THE HEAVY
TOTALS WILL BE...IN SCATTERED CONVECTION...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
NOT BEING ISSUED YET.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...IS CONCERNING. THERE ARE SIGNS
OF A PREDECESSOR RAIN EVENT...OR PRE. A HEAVY RAIN EVENT...THAT
COULD OCCUR IN OUR CWA. THIS TYPE OF EVENT OCCURS WITH A LANDFALLING
TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE GULF...AND WESTERLIES IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
IN SHORT...WE WOULD HAVE SOME SUPPORT FOR TRAINING CONVECTION...AND
TROPICAL MOISTURE WELL DISPLACED FROM THE LANDFALLING SYSTEM. AT
THIS POINT...SIGNS ARE NOT CONFIDENT...BUT I FIND IT TROUBLING THAT
THE ECMWF PLACES AN ACTIVE STALLED SURFACE FRONT OVER IOWA TO
INDIANA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH A SHORT WAVE LOCATED IN
THE DAKOTAS. IN ANY CASE...THE GFS IS NOT SHOWING THIS...BUT IT
NEEDS TO BE WATCHED.
BEYOND THIS...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE
CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...HOPEFULLY RESULTING IN AT
LEAST ONE DRY DAY BEHIND IT. NEEDLESS TO SAY...WITH WEST SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...AND PLENTY OF WARMTH AND HUMIDITY AROUND...I HAVE NO
FAITH IN THAT PROSPECT. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN....WHICH EXTENDS
THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND...OFFERS A HIGH CHANCE FOR DAILY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS SAID IN MANY OF OUR PRODUCTS THE PAST
FEW DAYS...WE MAY BE MOVING INTO A PERIOD OF RATHER WIDESPREAD
FLOODING...BUT AS TO WHAT SIGNIFICANCE AND WHAT RIVERS...THAT IS YET
TO BE DETERMINED.&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE TAPERING OFF IN COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES. PCPN MENTION
CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON NEXT 6 HOURS AT TERMINALS WHERE CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHEST. OVERNIGHT INTO MID-MORNING SUNDAY EXPECT LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG DEVELOPMENT IN LIGHT WINDS AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS WIDESPREAD WITH SOME VLIFR POSSIBLE. SLOW
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY TO MVFR AND LOW VFR CONDITIONS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MORE PREVALENT DURING THE
HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1135 PM MDT SAT JUN 13 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 548 PM MDT SAT JUN 13 2015
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE. CONCERN IS GROWING
OVER THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TOMORROW MORNING WITH SOME LOCATIONS
POSSIBLY EXPERIENCING DENSE FOG. A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST
COLORADO SLOWLY SLIDES NORTH THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THE
LOW...MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL PERSIST...REACHING ITS PEAK BY
TOMORROW MORNING. MIXING RATIOS APPROACH 14 G/KG...DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW/MID 60S AND TEMPERATURES FALLING NEAR SATURATION SHOULD
PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. INSERTED
AREAS OF FOG INTO THE FORECAST...PRIMARILY EAST OF A BENKELMAN
NEBRASKA TO LEOTI KANSAS LINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT SAT JUN 13 2015
LATEST UPPER AIR DATA DEPICTS A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST
CONUS. TO THE SOUTH SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WERE LOCATED FROM
THE FOUR CORNERS AREA UP TO THE GREAT LAKES. SATELLITE DATA SHOWED
STORMS BEGINNING TO FIRE OVER THE ROCKIES BETWEEN TWO OF THE
TROUGHS. FURTHER EAST OVER THE PLAINS CUMULUS CLOUDS WERE BECOMING
MORE PRONOUNCED WITH ONE OF THE TROUGHS. AT THE SURFACE A LOW
PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO. SURFACE
CONVERGENCE FROM THE SURFACE LOW NEAR LIMON WAS ALLOWING STORMS TO
BEGIN TO FIRE.
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON EXPECT STORMS NEAR THE SURFACE LOW TO
REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON WHEN SURFACE
CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS OVER THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE AREA. TO THE
EAST WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH ONE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MAY LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT. DUE
TO ALMOST NO STORM MOVEMENT ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE ALMOST
STATIONARY. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL ABOVE THE 75TH
PERCENTILE...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP AND DO NOT COLLAPSE ON THEMSELVES SHORTLY AFTER INITIATING.
EARLY THIS EVENING THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING STORMS OVER THE FAR
WEST NEAR THE SURFACE LOW. THESE SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE SUN SETS.
FURTHER EAST THE LIFT FROM THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA...AND ACTUALLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE
EVENING. CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR
STORMS WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA. STORM COVERAGE FOR OUR AREA WILL
BE MORE ISOLATED WITH COVERAGE INCREASING TO THE EAST. ANY LINGERING
STORMS WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
BEFORE SUNRISE.
SUNDAY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WEST OF THE AREA TODAY WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA. NOT MUCH LIFT TO REALLY HELP PINPOINT STORM
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER THIS LOOKS TO BE A SIMILAR SETUP TO YESTERDAY
WHEN STORMS DEVELOPED ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. ONE TROUGH AXIS WILL
BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH ANOTHER OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST. WITH
BETTER CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NORTHERN TROUGH AXIS...WHICH SEPARATES
THE NOW CLOSED LOW FROM THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL FLOW...AM THINKING
ISOLATED STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA
FIRST. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES CONVERGENCE OVER THIS PART OF
THE AREA WILL END AS THE CLOSED LOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH. MEANWHILE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS WILL DEVELOP
AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH CLOSES OFF. AGAIN THIS LOOKS TO BE A
SIMILAR SETUP TO FRIDAY SO WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL
OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA ALONG/AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA SO
STORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TO THE EAST. WITH ALMOST NO STORM
MOVEMENT...ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY.
WITH THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...ANY STORMS THAT DO NOT
COLLAPSE SHORTLY AFTER INITIATING MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.
THERE WILL BE A FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
AREA DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER THIS LOOKS TO BE WEST...BEHIND...THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE DRIER AIR SO AM NOT TOO CONFIDENT STORMS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE FEATURE UNLESS IT BECOMES MORE
VERTICALLY STACKED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
LOW/HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY/LAST NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT SAT JUN 13 2015
GOING INTO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...SIMILAR MODEL
CONDITIONS AGAIN WILL AFFECT THE ENTIRE TRI STATE REGION...AS
COMPARED WITH LAST FEW MODEL RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF. ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY ZONAL FLOW WILL MAINLY PERSIST AT
500MB/700MB...WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SE/SW PORTIONS
OF THE COUNTRY. THE FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES WILL ALLOW FOR
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP AND REMAIN THRU MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LATEST MODEL RUNS DO SHOW THIS TROUGH A BIT MORE
ENHANCED/DEEPER THAN YESTERDAY/S RUN BUT WILL INTERACT WITH A FEW
TROUGHS THAT MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN ZONAL FLOW...INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. HAVE KEPT IN
MODERATE RAINFALL ENHANCEMENT IN THE FORECAST WITH PW/S REACHING
1.00"-1.50" ALL WEEK. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S FROM TUESDAY ONWARD...AND
MONDAY IN THE MID/UPPER 70S. DAYTIME HIGHS COULD BE ADVERSELY
AFFECTED FROM AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AS WELL AS
AMOUNT OF RAIN EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S
TO THE MID 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM MDT SAT JUN 13 2015
PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN THIS TAF RUN REMAINS THE CHANCE FOR
FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT. MOST GUIDANCE IS NOT GRASPING THE CURRENT
TRENDS IN DEWPOINTS/MOISTURE CONTENT AND FEEL THEY ARE DOWNPLAYING
THE FOG/STRATUS CHANCES TOO MUCH. THERE IS SOME THICK CIRRUS
COMING IN WHICH MAY REDUCE THE REQUIRED RADIATIONAL COOLING.
HOWEVER...LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE FOG/STRATUS REMAIN LIKELY
SO RELIED ON A RAP/NAM COMBINATION. ANY FOG/STRATUS RAPIDLY
DISSIPATES BY MID-MORNING. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TOMORROW BUT STILL DO NOT
ANTICIPATE THEM REACHING THE TAF SITES.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...RRH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
323 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL FEATURE HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY
IN OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND ALONG THE VIRGINIA AND WEST
VIRGINIA BORDERS...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND 90 BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY FALLING TO AROUND 70 ACROSS THE AREA. THE
NAM12 AND HRRR MODELS ARE BOTH IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY TODAY AND
MONDAY...SO THESE TWO MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE USED TO CREATE THE
FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
WHILE THE MODELS ALL LINE UP WITH EACH OTHER ALOFT FOR THE
EXTENDED...THIS AGREEMENT IS A BIT OF A DEPARTURE WITH RESPECT TO
THEIR CONSENSUS OF 24 HOURS AGO...LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE. THEY
NOW ALL SHOW THE RIDGING A BIT MORE SUBSTANTIAL THROUGH THE DEEP
SOUTH WITH THE TRAIN OF WEAK ENERGY WAVES STAYING FURTHER NORTH THAN
LAST NIGHT/S VERSION. THE TROUGH THAT LOOKED TO PASS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY IS NOW A BIT SLOWER AND WILL JUST
BE GETTING TO OUR AREA ON FRIDAY WITH THE GFS THE SLOWEST SOLUTION.
ACCORDINGLY...THE MODELS NOW SUGGEST THAT THIS WAVE WILL NOT BE
MOVING OUT UNTIL THE UPCOMING SATURDAY WITH RISING HEIGHTS TO FOLLOW
INTO THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEKEND. THIS LATEST MODEL SCENARIO
WOULD MAKE THE STORMS MORE OF AN UNCERTAINTY...BASICALLY WAITING FOR
OUTFLOW FROM ONES TRACKING TO THE NORTH TO TAP INTO OUR WARM AND
HUMID AIR FOR ANY BETTER CONVECTIVE CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WILL AGAIN FAVOR A MODEL BLENDED SOLUTION FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION
OF THE FORECAST...WITH A HEAVY DIURNAL COMPONENT TO THE POPS AND SKY
COVER.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL SEE A WARM AND HUMID SETUP FOR EAST KENTUCKY
THROUGH THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED. THE BETTER STORM CHANCES WILL BE
WEST AND NORTH OF THE CWA...ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. THE BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL BE SEEN
FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A LOW
PRESSURE AREA AND A POOL OF MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS. LOWER POPS
WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE AREA ON SATURDAY OWING TO RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AT THE SFC. THE WARMEST DAYS OF
THE EXTENDED WILL BE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS FROM 85 TO
90 DEGREES AND THE HEAT INDEX A CATEGORY HIGHER EACH AFTERNOON. MORE
CLOUDS AND CONVECTION SHOULD SERVE TO CHECK THE WARMTH ON
FRIDAY...BUT HIGHS SHOULD BE UP A NOTCH SATURDAY AS SOME DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE MORE TROPICAL AIR MASS.
THE CR GRID BLEND CAME IN REASONABLY WELL WITH THE BULK OF ANY
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE POPS AND SKY TO ACCOUNT FOR A STRONG DIURNAL
CYCLE WITH THESE GRIDS THROUGH THURSDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DID
TOUCH THE LOWS A BIT EACH NIGHT TO REPRESENT ONLY MINOR TERRAIN
EFFECTS GIVEN THE FAIRLY HIGH MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 131 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BESIDES SOME
MVFR FOG AT TIMES AT LOZ AND SME BETWEEN 8 AND 12Z. ANY IFR OR
WORSE FOG WILL BE MORE RESTRICTED TO THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS
OVERNIGHT. ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT CAN MANAGE TO FORM TODAY
WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED...SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT ANY
MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE PICKING UP TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
130 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2015
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Updated at 305 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2015
Scattered showers and thunderstorms have erupted over parts of
south-central and western KY in the warm, humid, and essentially
uncapped air mass. The storms over south-central KY are putting down
some brief heavy rain and perhaps a few brief wind gusts, but
downward CAPE (DCAPE) values are very marginal (500 J/kg or less)
due to ample atmospheric moisture and weak lapse rates aloft. Thus,
am expecting little or no microburst activity with these storms. The
cells over western KY are showing a bit better organization at this
time, and if they can hold together and move into a slightly more
favorable environment in south-central IN late this afternoon, then
a few stronger cells are possible.
Nevertheless, given a lack of organized forcing, storms will weaken/
dissipate early this evening in most areas as they continue to move
northeast. The latest HRRR even shows the cells in western KY
weakening later on as they move northeast. This will leave a mostly
clear sky south and partly cloudy sky north overnight across our
area. There could be patchy fog/haze early Sunday morning,
especially where showers occur this afternoon, but not expecting
anything widespread or dense.
Short range models in good overall agreement with a summer pattern
in store on Sunday. Mid-level ridge will continue to build to the
northwest across KY Sunday with 500 mb heights rising a bit. There
also should be a little less moisture in the atmosphere. As a
result, there will be less coverage Sunday afternoon, and south-
central KY may stay precip free other than perhaps an isolated storm
here or there. A slightly better chance for diurnal afternoon
isolated to scattered cells will occur roughly along and north of
Interstate 64 on the periphery of the upper ridge and closer to the
better stream of moisture around this ridge. Once again, any
activity should weaken Sunday evening. However, cannot rule out
isolated/scattered nocturnal cells Sunday night over southern IN,
again closer to the stream of moisture on the northern fringe of the
upper ridge.
Lows tonight should be roughly around 70 (warmer in Louisville).
Highs Sunday afternoon will top out near 90 or the lower 90s in
central KY with mid-upper 80s in southern IN. Lows Sunday night will
average in the lower 70s across the region.
.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Sun June 14 2015
Well..the big weather feature of the forecast is the large
anticylone anchored over the Peach State and the Palmetto State. How
the Ridge strengthens and becomes shunted will be one of the keys
with this entire warm and sultry airmass ensconsed over the OH
Valley. While the Bermuda High remains anchored over the SE Coast
towards the Bahamas, the polar jet will be racing in a nearly zonal
fashion across the Northern CONUS. The result of this will be an
abundance of Gulf moisture, helping to fuel thunderstorms from The
Lone Star State up to The Show Me State and then around the ridge to
to the Upper Midwest and Southern Great Lakes with any of a number
of short waves flowing through the northern jet.
Model guidance is in good agreement on this overall stagnant
pattern, but as usual, the devil is in the details. For the land
between the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, that means dry to the south,
wet to the north, and the hit-and-miss storms in between - right
over us. At least that looks to be the scenario for most of the
period. The 12Z runs are all picking up on a bit more energy
riding in from the western Gulf and breaking down the ridge on
Thursday, though. This would provide the opportunity for more
organized convection then. Regardless of the day and coverage,
though thanks to the deep moisture riding from the Gulf around the
subtropical High off the Florida coast, any storms that do develop
will be soakers, as precipitable water values will be in the 1.5"-2"
range throughout the time frame.
Temperature-wise, both daytime highs and overnight lows will be
above normal through the period, but only by 5 to as many as 10
degrees. That works out to most highs being in the mid 80s to
around 90, with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 130 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2015
Though an isolated shower isn`t out of the question early this
morning, coverage will be slight enough to preclude mention in the
TAFs. Fog is unlikely, though since BWG received a brief period of
light rain yesterday, will continue with a chance of MVFR BR there.
Daylight will bring another warm, muggy summer day. Scattered
thunderstorm development will once again be possible, especially in
the afternoon. With ridging to our southeast and the main storm
track to our northwest, SDF stands the best shot at a storm so will
include VCTS there. LEX and BWG could also see a cell move through,
but chances are lower at those locations.
After light winds pre-dawn, southwest winds may get a bit gusty
today, possibly to near 20 knots at times.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term........TWF
Long Term.........JBS
Aviation..........13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
100 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.AVIATION...
VFR WITH ISOLD SHWRS. EXPECT MVFR CIGS WITH SCAT TO NUM SHWRS BY
AROUND DAYBREAK. OUR CLIMB WINDS ARE S 15-35KTS INTO THE MID
LEVELS. SHWRS WILL QUICKLY BECOMING STRONGER TSTMS WITH HEATING
16-18Z. AMENDMENTS FOR TEMPO GROUPS LIKELY SUNDAY AFTN WITH
CLUSTERS OF TSTMS. WE/LL CONTINUE TO INCREASE COVERAGE IN THE
COMING DAYS AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH SITS OVER THE PLAINS AND
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGES INLAND OVER THE TX
COASTAL BEND WITH A HIGH CHANCE FOR A CYCLONE IN THE GULF.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 952 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015/
DISCUSSION...
MUCH OF THE CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS
OF INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH SCT CONVECTION CONTINUES JUST NW OF OUR
NW ZONES OVER SE OK...NEAR AN OLD OUTFLOW BNDRY FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION THAT PROPAGATED NW...AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE
OUT OF THE MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY. MUCH OF THE REGION THOUGH
STILL LIES IN VC OF A WEAK SHEAR AXIS ALOFT...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED/SCT REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY AS PW/S REMAIN
NEAR 2 INCHES. THE HRRR IS ACTUALLY A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN
CONVECTION REDEVELOPMENT LATE...WITH THE EXISTING CONVECTION JUST
OFFSHORE THE SE TX COAST PUSHING INLAND OVERNIGHT INTO PORTIONS OF
DEEP E TX JUST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK SUNDAY...ROTATING N AROUND THE
DIRTY UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SE CONUS.
HAVE KEPT MID CHANCE POPS GOING FOR THESE AREAS LATE TONIGHT...AS
WELL AS OUR SE OK/NRN SW AR COUNTIES...AS ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT
MAY OCCUR HERE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SHORTWAVE JUST OFF TO
OUR NW. DID INCREASE WINDS A TAD BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...AND
MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO MIN TEMPS...WITH READINGS NOT FALLING MUCH
MORE THAN THE 02Z OBS.
ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
15
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 74 86 74 87 / 30 60 50 60
MLU 73 88 74 89 / 40 70 50 50
DEQ 73 87 73 86 / 30 50 40 50
TXK 74 87 73 86 / 30 50 40 50
ELD 74 85 74 88 / 30 60 50 50
TYR 73 85 74 85 / 30 60 50 60
GGG 74 85 74 86 / 30 60 50 60
LFK 75 84 74 86 / 40 70 50 60
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
24/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
354 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM QUEBEC TODAY. THIS HIGH WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE MAIN CHALLENGES THIS TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND WIND.
HIGH PRES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY. 06Z IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE W/SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
ESE FROM CANADA. THE 00Z NAM AND THE LATEST HRRR 3KM HANDLED THIS
HIGH CLOUDINESS WELL. THIS HIGH CLOUDINESS APPEARED TO BE IN
ASSOCIATION W/SHEARED VORTICITY MOVING SE FROM CANADA. THE NAM AND
HRRR 3KM MODEL SHOW SOME OF THIS CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST AREAS TODAY W/THE MAJORITY OF IT BEING THIN. FURTHER
NORTH, MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY W/A
NORTHERLY WIND IN PLACE IN LLVLS. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 70S NORTH AND WEST W/MID TO UPPER 70S
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. A SEA BREEZE LOOKS LIKE IT COULD SET UP
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST KEEPING THING COOLER SAY ALONG THE BAR
HARBOR TO MACHIAS. 00Z UA SHOWED A 30 KT JET MAX RESIDING AT
850MBS IN QUEBEC. THIS JET MAX IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. MODEL SOUNDING SHOW INVERTED V IN THE BLYR W/SOME OF
THIS WIND TO MIX DOWN TO THE SFC. THEREFORE, INCREASED THE GUSTS
BY 5 MPH TODAY PLAYING FOR GUSTS TO HIT 20 KT MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.
FOR TONIGHT, HIGH PRES WILL MOVE TO THE E W/THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION. SOUNDING DATA INDICATED DRY THROUGH THE COLUMN
W/CLEAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT W/THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO
THE REGION. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DROP OFF LESS THAN 7 MPH
W/TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK OVERNIGHT. READINGS BY DAYBREAK ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH AND WEST W/50-55
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE MAINE COAST DURING MONDAY WITH
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE AROUND 70
ACROSS THE NORTH AND ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S DOWN EAST WITH
AN ONSHORE FLOW.
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST MONDAY NIGHT WHILE AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL
TO THE WEST ACROSS QUEBEC. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE
AND FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS DOWN EAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH TO THE EAST AND THE LOW OFF TO THE
SOUTH. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL START
TO MOVE IN DURING TUESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ANY
TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE THE BETTER DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED. HIGHS
ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S DOWN EAST TO THE UPPER 60S
TO NEAR 70 NORTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ENDING BY MIDNIGHT.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
WITH DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH
WILL MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH DURING
THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
50S.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT. A LIGHT CHOP EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM: VFR MONDAY. IFR/LIFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY ESPECIALLY KBGR/KBHB WITH LOW
CLOUDS/AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
EAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. VFR TO START THURSDAY THEN
POSSIBLY MVFR AT TIMES IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES THIS TERM. SUSTAINED WINDS TO AVERAGE 10
KTS W/A FEW GUSTS OF 20 KTS EARLY TODAY FOR THE OUTER ZONE FROM
SCHOODIC POINT TO STONINGTON. SEAS OF 2-3 AWAY FROM THE INTRA-
COASTAL ZONE.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. VISIBILITIES WILL DECREASE TO AROUND A
MILE OR LESS AT TIMES IN AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE MONDAY NIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
125 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THEN CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
115 AM UPDATE...HRLY TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED TO MATCH UP W/THE LATEST
CONDITIONS. DRIER HAS POURED INTO THE REGION AS EVIDENT OF THE
DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH
AND WEST WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WERE SEEING UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE. THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR 3KM MODEL HAD A
GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SETUP. CLEAR CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA THROUGH THIS MORNING W/SOME CIRRUS MOVING
ACROSS SW AND SOUTHERN AREAS BUT THIN FOR THE MOST PART.
THEREFORE, OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE ALLOWED TO DROP SOME MORE BY
DAYBREAK. WNW 5-10 MPH WILL KEEP THE BLYR MIXED A BIT KEEPING
TEMPS UP SOME HOWEVER.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM CANADA WILL BRING CLEAR AND
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH
CRESTS OVER THE STATE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE
FROM 70 OVER THE NORTH TO THE MID 70S DOWNEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. A WEAK AND POORLY ORGANIZED TROUGH WILL
THEN BEGIN TO APPROACH ON MONDAY. THE TROUGH SEEMS TO HAVE TWO
SHORTWAVES, ONE WHICH IS ROUNDING THE TOP OF A RIDGE CENTERED IN
THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL BE SLIDING BY TO OUR SOUTH, AND ANOTHER
ROUNDING THE BOTTOM OF A CENTRAL CANADIAN TROUGH WHICH WILL BE
TRACKING TO OUR NORTH. BETWEEN THE TWO, SOME CLOUDINESS AND CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS WILL BE WITH US MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES
INTO THE AREA AND COOLER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT. MODELS ARE SHOWING
SOME DIVERGENCE ALOFT BETWEEN THE SE RIDGE AND N TROUGH WHICH MAY
SUPPORT LIFT, AND CAPES ARE CURRENTLY PROGGED TO RUN UP TO AROUND
600 J/KG ON TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY WITH SOME CLEARING POSSIBLY WORKING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATE IN THE DAY AS ANY SHOWERS/T STORMS MOVE INTO THE SE PART OF
THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY LINGER AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
GREATEST RISK FOR PRECIP AT THIS TIME IS OVER CENTRAL AND DOWN
EAST LOCATIONS, WITH CLEARING LIKELY BY 06Z WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ALLOWS FOR LIGHT WINDS LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR MUCH OF THE
DAY WEDNESDAY, BUT CLOUDS LIKELY MOVE IN OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM.
REGARDING THIS NEXT DISTURBANCE, THERE WAS SIGNIFICANT
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS ON THE
SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM, AS THERE HAD BEEN FOR THE PAST DAY OR SO.
THE GFS WAS A GOOD 24 HOURS OR SO AHEAD OF THE ECMWF, WITH THE
LATTER FORMING A 500MB CUTOFF OVER EASTERN CANADA AND HITTING THE
BRAKES. DECIDED TO ANGLE THE FORECAST TOWARD THE 12Z GFS SOLUTION,
AS IT SEEMED A BIT MORE REASONABLE AND THE 12Z CANADIAN WAS MUCH
CLOSER TO THE GFS. WHILE IT CAME IN AFTER MOST OF THE FORECAST
EDITS WERE ALREADY MADE, IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE 12Z ECMWF IS
MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MUCH CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION,
INCREASING FORECASTER CONFIDENCE. RELATIVE TO SUPERBLEND, POPS
WERE DECREASED 12Z FRI TO 12Z SAT TO SHOW A BETTER PROGRESSION OF
THE SYSTEM OUT OF THE AREA, WHILE RETAINING SOME CHC POPS OVER
NORTHERN MAINE TO REFLECT POSSIBLE LINGERING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL GUST FROM THE NW AROUND
20S THROUGH 02Z AT NORTHERN TERMINALS OF FVE AND CAR BUT DIMINISH
AFTER THIS TIME AND BCM LGT/VRB AT BGR AND BHB TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR AT SOME SITES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY IN LOW CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH MONDAY AND
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
353 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SW FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE UPR GRT LKS BTWN UPR RDG AXIS ORIENTED FM JAMES BAY INTO
THE SE CONUS AND AN UPR TROF OVER WRN CANADA/NRN ROCKIES. SHRTWV
EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS THAT FELL
ON SAT EVNG IS NOW OVER LK SUP AND LIFTING TO THE NE. VIGOROUS MID
LVL DRYING UNDER THE DNVA/SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS
DISTURBANCE....REFLECTED BY 00Z H7-5 DEWPT DEPRESSIONS OF 15-20C AT
THE RAOB SITES UPSTREAM OF UPR MI...HAS ENDED THE SHOWERS OVER THE
CWA. BUT WITH LINGERING LLVL MSTR UNDER THE MID LVL DRYING IN THE
PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING...AREAS OF FOG HAVE FORMED. THIS FOG
HAS BECOME LOCALLY DENSE ESPECIALLY OVER THE KEWEENAW AND NEAR LK MI
WHERE THE LIGHT LLVL E WIND IS ONSHORE. THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF
SHOWERS/TS STRETCHING FM SE WI INTO SW LOWER MI...BUT THE
RESPONSIBLE SHRTWV/AREA OF H85 THETA E ADVECTION ARE ON TRACK TO
PASS FAR ENUF TO THE SE SO THAT THIS PCPN SHOULD MISS THE CWA.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...A SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE WRN TROF IS MOVING THRU
THE NRN ROCKIES AND BRINGING SOME SHOWERS/TS AS FAR E AS THE NRN
PLAINS.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON FOG/LO CLDS AND ALSO
POPS MAINLY LATE TNGT AS THE SHRTWV IN THE NRN ROCKIES WITHIN THE
SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE UPR TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FNT APRCH FM THE W.
TODAY...UPR MI WL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LARGER SCALE QVECTOR
DVGC/H85-5 DRYING UNDER SHRTWV RDG AXIS. HOW PERSISTENT FOG/LO CLDS
WL BE IS THUS THE MAIN CONCERN. GIVEN THE HI JUN SUN ANGLE AND THE
ABSENCE OF THICKER MID CLDS...EXPECT DAYTIME HEATING TO GRDLY LIFT
THE LO CLD CIG/FOG BY NOON AT MOST PLACES. BEST CHC FOR MORE
PERSISTENT FOG/STRATUS WL BE ALONG THE LK SHORES...WHERE PROXIMITY
TO CHILLY WATERS WL MAINTAIN HIER NEAR SFC RH. WL ISSUE AN SPS TO
HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DENSE FOG THIS MRNG FOR THE
KEWEENAW AND NEAR LK MI. PREVIOUS FCST HAD SOME MRNG DRIZZLE...OPTED
TO MAINTAIN THIS FCST. A FEW MODELS ALSO GENERATE SOME QPF/SHOWERS
OVER THE MAINLY THE E HALF THIS AFTN IN AREA OF CNVGC BTWN LK BREEZES
OFF LKS SUP AND MI...BUT FCST SDNGS SHOW SUCH AN IMPRESSIVE
SUBSIDENCE INVRN THAT THIS OUTCOME SEEMS UNLIKELY.
TONIGHT...EXPECT AT LEAST PATCHY FOG TO REDEVELOP TNGT WITH
NOCTURNAL COOLING AS MID LVL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE ARE FCST TO REMAIN
IN PLACE THRU AT LEAST 06Z. BUT LATE TNGT...ARRIVAL OF SOME DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC/MID LVL MSTR OVER THE W IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV NOW OVER
THE NRN ROCKIES MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS. SINCE MUCAPE IS FCST TO BE
NO HIER THAN ABOUT 250 J/KG AND THE MSTR RIBBON WL BE ARRIVING IN
ABSENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING...DID NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF TS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
LOW PRESSURE PUSHING ACROSS HUDSON BAY WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT OVER
THE REGION MONDAY /OVER THE FAR W THIRD OF THE CWA AROUND 12Z
MONDAY/...AND THE E AROUND 18Z/. COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
FRONT MOVES OVER THE E HALF...WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE OFF BOTH LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MI AND BETTER
INSTABILITY WITH DAYTIME HEATING. CAPE VALUES LOOK TO TOP OUT 200-
400J/KG CENTRAL AND E.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND INTO E MT MONDAY
MORNING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE N PLAINS...AND SHIFT OVER UPPER MI
TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY EXIT E TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER
SHOULD BE THE RULE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. EXPECT
LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH CENTERED OVER E UPPER MI
AT 06Z WEDNESDAY SHIFTS E. PW VALUES THERE WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN
THE 0.3 TO 0.5IN...WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 9-10C. LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S LOOKING REASONABLE FOR MORNING LOWS /ESPECIALLY FOR THE
TRADITIONAL COOL FIRE WX SITES/.
AS FOR MIDWEEK...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE NEARING...BUT THERE IS PLENTY
OF DISCREPANCIES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH. STARTING AT AROUND 00Z
THURSDAY THE GFS LOOKS TO BE AROUND 12HRS FASTER THAN BOTH THE 00Z
RUNS OF THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF WITH THE SFC LOW ACROSS ONTARIO. WILL
OPT TO GO WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION. WHILE THE STRONGER FEATURES WILL
REMAIN CLOSER TO HUDSON BAY...AND S INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEY...A SHORTWAVE IN THE OTHERWISE MAINLY ZONAL FLOW WILL
SHIFT IN. GIVEN THE STORMS LIKELY TO OUR S IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO
SEE IF ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO SURGE IN TO WARRANT THE HIGH
END CHANCE POPS. KEPT THESE HIGHER POPS MAINLY INLAND FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR. ANOTHER SYSTEM SLIDING IN FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY LOOKS
TO BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. KEPT THE CHANCE
WORDING FOR THUNDERSTORMS...AND HIGHLIGHTED THEM IN THE HWO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE WAKE OF AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE AREA SAT EVENING. THIS HAS LED
TO CONDITIONS LOWERING TO LIFR/VLIFR FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ALONG
WITH FOG AND DRIZZLE. THE LOW CEILINGS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS BEFORE STARTING TO RISE TOWARDS MVFR OR VFR LATE IN THE
TAF PERIOD. LINGERING LOW-LVL MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO FOG/STRATUS
REDEVELOPING LATE SUN EVENING WITH CONDITIONS AGAIN LOWERING TO MVFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
PRESSURE CHANGES ARE MINIMAL...LEADING TO WINDS LESS THAN 25KTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD /OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS/. FOG WILL REMAIN
AN OFF AND ON CONCERN ALONG THE SHORELINE AND E THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. EXPECTING MORE WIDESPREAD FOG TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS FAR NE MANITOBA TODAY TO SLIDE
INTO HUDSON BAY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WHILE DRAGGING A TROUGH
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE N PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE
MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH WILL LIKELY
SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE A RIDGE BUILDS IN ON THURSDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
349 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN WISCONSIN AT THIS TIME...LEADING TO AN
AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHWEST OF ONTONAGON
SOUTHWEST INTO WEST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS (LOCATED
IN THE COMMA HEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE) WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT AND SHIFT
NORTH ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
MEANWHILE...THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL/EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING (CURRENTLY IN EASTERN WISCONSIN)
AND BE AIDING SHOWERS THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THAT AREA. THUS...HAVE
SHOWN A GRADUAL DIMINISHMENT IN THE POPS OVER THE WEST THIS
EVENING...WITH A TREND TO THE EAST WITH THE BETTER SUPPORT FROM THE
SHORTWAVE AND LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. AS THIS INITIAL PUSH OF
SHOWERS MOVES INTO THE CWA...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA (ALREADY SEEN IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN WISCONSIN WITH LOW
CEILINGS AND 2-3MI VISIBILITIES). THESE LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG WILL
REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE BEEN SEEING
DENSE FOG SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY NORTH ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE IN WISCONSIN THROUGH THE DAY AND WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...WOULD EXPECT FOG (LIKELY DENSE) TO AFFECT
NORTHWEST LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THAT TIME. THE WINDS AREN/T THE MOST
FAVORABLE...BUT WITH WATER TEMPS STILL ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S...HAVE
A FEELING THE FOG WILL REALLY EXPAND/THICKEN TONIGHT AND MAY NEED A
MARINE FOG ADVISORY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION FOG OVER THE LAND
AREAS TOO...BASED ON THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LOW CLOUDS MOVING
NORTH INTO THE AREA. ARE SEEING SOME SPECKS OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING AND THINKING THAT IS LARGELY DUE TO
DRIZZLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CLOUDS. WITH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOWING SOME WEAK LIFT WITHIN THE LOW CLOUDS...WILL SHOW PATCHY
DRIZZLE BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND THEN SHIFTING OVER JUST
THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA TOMORROW MORNING.
A SECOND SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY IN NORTHERN MISSOURI...WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE LOCATED FARTHER
TO THE SOUTHEAST AND ONLY BRUSH THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA
LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. BEHIND THAT SECOND
SHORTWAVE...THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN FEATURES...AS AN UPPER TROUGH
IS MOVING EAST THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. A LOW CENTERED NEAR
WESTERN HUDSON BAY WILL HAVE A COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTH THROUGH
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND THE EASTERN DAKOTAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW LOW THE LOW CLOUDS WILL
STICK AROUND THROUGH THE DAY AND IF ANY OF THE FOG OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL AFFECT THE SHORELINE AREAS UNDER THE LIGHT WINDS.
MODELS SEEM CONSISTENT THAT THERE WILL BE EITHER SOME BREAKS OR
SCATTERING OUT OF THE LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE WESTERN
THIRD OF THE U.P.. BUT BELIEVE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH ADDED LIFT FROM
DIURNAL HEATING AND ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO KEEP CONDITIONS
MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE EASTERN HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA. DID
LINGER SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON FROM GWINN TO NEWBERRY WITH THE ADDED LIFT AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
LOW PRESSURE PUSHING ACROSS HUDSON BAY WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT OVER
THE REGION MONDAY /OVER THE FAR W THIRD OF THE CWA AROUND 12Z
MONDAY/...AND THE E AROUND 18Z/. COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
FRONT MOVES OVER THE E HALF...WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE OFF BOTH LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MI AND BETTER
INSTABILITY WITH DAYTIME HEATING. CAPE VALUES LOOK TO TOP OUT 200-
400J/KG CENTRAL AND E.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND INTO E MT MONDAY
MORNING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE N PLAINS...AND SHIFT OVER UPPER MI
TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY EXIT E TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER
SHOULD BE THE RULE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. EXPECT
LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH CENTERED OVER E UPPER MI
AT 06Z WEDNESDAY SHIFTS E. PW VALUES THERE WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN
THE 0.3 TO 0.5IN...WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 9-10C. LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S LOOKING REASONABLE FOR MORNING LOWS /ESPECIALLY FOR THE
TRADITIONAL COOL FIRE WX SITES/.
AS FOR MIDWEEK...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE NEARING...BUT THERE IS PLENTY
OF DISCREPANCIES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH. STARTING AT AROUND 00Z
THURSDAY THE GFS LOOKS TO BE AROUND 12HRS FASTER THAN BOTH THE 00Z
RUNS OF THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF WITH THE SFC LOW ACROSS ONTARIO. WILL
OPT TO GO WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION. WHILE THE STRONGER FEATURES WILL
REMAIN CLOSER TO HUDSON BAY...AND S INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEY...A SHORTWAVE IN THE OTHERWISE MAINLY ZONAL FLOW WILL
SHIFT IN. GIVEN THE STORMS LIKELY TO OUR S IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO
SEE IF ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO SURGE IN TO WARRANT THE HIGH
END CHANCE POPS. KEPT THESE HIGHER POPS MAINLY INLAND FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR. ANOTHER SYSTEM SLIDING IN FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY LOOKS
TO BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. KEPT THE CHANCE
WORDING FOR THUNDERSTORMS...AND HIGHLIGHTED THEM IN THE HWO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE WAKE OF AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE AREA SAT EVENING. THIS HAS LED
TO CONDITIONS LOWERING TO LIFR/VLIFR FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ALONG
WITH FOG AND DRIZZLE. THE LOW CEILINGS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS BEFORE STARTING TO RISE TOWARDS MVFR OR VFR LATE IN THE
TAF PERIOD. LINGERING LOW-LVL MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO FOG/STRATUS
REDEVELOPING LATE SUN EVENING WITH CONDITIONS AGAIN LOWERING TO MVFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
PRESSURE CHANGES ARE MINIMAL...LEADING TO WINDS LESS THAN 25KTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD /OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS/. FOG WILL REMAIN
AN OFF AND ON CONCERN ALONG THE SHORELINE AND E THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. EXPECTING MORE WIDESPREAD FOG TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS FAR NE MANITOBA TODAY TO SLIDE
INTO HUDSON BAY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WHILE DRAGGING A TROUGH
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE N PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE
MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH WILL LIKELY
SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE A RIDGE BUILDS IN ON THURSDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
124 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN WISCONSIN AT THIS TIME...LEADING TO AN
AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHWEST OF ONTONAGON
SOUTHWEST INTO WEST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS (LOCATED
IN THE COMMA HEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE) WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT AND SHIFT
NORTH ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
MEANWHILE...THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL/EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING (CURRENTLY IN EASTERN WISCONSIN)
AND BE AIDING SHOWERS THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THAT AREA. THUS...HAVE
SHOWN A GRADUAL DIMINISHMENT IN THE POPS OVER THE WEST THIS
EVENING...WITH A TREND TO THE EAST WITH THE BETTER SUPPORT FROM THE
SHORTWAVE AND LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. AS THIS INITIAL PUSH OF
SHOWERS MOVES INTO THE CWA...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA (ALREADY SEEN IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN WISCONSIN WITH LOW
CEILINGS AND 2-3MI VISIBILITIES). THESE LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG WILL
REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE BEEN SEEING
DENSE FOG SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY NORTH ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE IN WISCONSIN THROUGH THE DAY AND WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...WOULD EXPECT FOG (LIKELY DENSE) TO AFFECT
NORTHWEST LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THAT TIME. THE WINDS AREN/T THE MOST
FAVORABLE...BUT WITH WATER TEMPS STILL ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S...HAVE
A FEELING THE FOG WILL REALLY EXPAND/THICKEN TONIGHT AND MAY NEED A
MARINE FOG ADVISORY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION FOG OVER THE LAND
AREAS TOO...BASED ON THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LOW CLOUDS MOVING
NORTH INTO THE AREA. ARE SEEING SOME SPECKS OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING AND THINKING THAT IS LARGELY DUE TO
DRIZZLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CLOUDS. WITH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOWING SOME WEAK LIFT WITHIN THE LOW CLOUDS...WILL SHOW PATCHY
DRIZZLE BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND THEN SHIFTING OVER JUST
THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA TOMORROW MORNING.
A SECOND SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY IN NORTHERN MISSOURI...WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE LOCATED FARTHER
TO THE SOUTHEAST AND ONLY BRUSH THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA
LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. BEHIND THAT SECOND
SHORTWAVE...THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN FEATURES...AS AN UPPER TROUGH
IS MOVING EAST THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. A LOW CENTERED NEAR
WESTERN HUDSON BAY WILL HAVE A COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTH THROUGH
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND THE EASTERN DAKOTAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW LOW THE LOW CLOUDS WILL
STICK AROUND THROUGH THE DAY AND IF ANY OF THE FOG OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL AFFECT THE SHORELINE AREAS UNDER THE LIGHT WINDS.
MODELS SEEM CONSISTENT THAT THERE WILL BE EITHER SOME BREAKS OR
SCATTERING OUT OF THE LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE WESTERN
THIRD OF THE U.P.. BUT BELIEVE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH ADDED LIFT FROM
DIURNAL HEATING AND ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO KEEP CONDITIONS
MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE EASTERN HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA. DID
LINGER SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON FROM GWINN TO NEWBERRY WITH THE ADDED LIFT AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
HOPING MODELS IN THE LONG TERM VERIFY BETTER THAN OVER THE LAST FEW
DAYS...WHEN MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN ABSOLUTELY AWFUL.
SUN NIGHT SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY...BUT DRY FOR THE MOST
PART.
MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT (RESULTING FROM A
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS CANADA) TO DURING THE DAY ON MON...WHICH IF
THAT DID OCCUR WOULD RESULT IN PRECIP MAINLY OVER LAND DURING PEAK
HEATING. WILL RUN WITH CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE...WHICH RESULTS IN
CHANCE POPS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN MON NIGHT AND TUE...RESULTING IN
PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER AND SUNNY SKIES. SHOULD BE A COOLER DAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 70 AS 850MB TEMPS WILL BE
5-8C.
LOW CONFIDENCE FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SAT AS MODELS STRUGGLE TO
HANDLE AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE THAT MAY MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN TUE
NIGHT AND WED NIGHT. ALSO...MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON THE
TIMING/STRENGTH OF A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH THAT MAY MOVE THROUGH
BETWEEN THU AND FRI NIGHT...AND WITH POSSIBLY ANOTHER WAVE NEXT SAT.
WILL JUST RUN WITH A 50/50 BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE WAKE OF AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE AREA SAT EVENING. THIS HAS LED
TO CONDITIONS LOWERING TO LIFR/VLIFR FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ALONG
WITH FOG AND DRIZZLE. THE LOW CEILINGS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS BEFORE STARTING TO RISE TOWARDS MVFR OR VFR LATE IN THE
TAF PERIOD. LINGERING LOW-LVL MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO FOG/STRATUS
REDEVELOPING LATE SUN EVENING WITH CONDITIONS AGAIN LOWERING TO MVFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL LEAD TO WINDS STAYING BELOW 20KTS FOR
MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK. THE STRONGEST WIND ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON
MONDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT...BUT THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 20KTS. WARM AND MOIST AIR STREAMING NORTH INTO THE AREA TODAY
INTO SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.
EXPECT LOCALLY DENSE FOG TO OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...AIDED
BY SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT WILL FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LAKE
TONIGHT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
359 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE FOG EARLY AND THEN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES ALONG COLD FRONT.
FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER AREAS THAT CLEARED AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAINLY
OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA. VISIBILITY HAS DROPPED TO
1/2SM OR LESS AT TIMES...AND THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE TREND EARLY
THIS MORNING. WILL MENTION PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG THROUGH ABOUT 13Z.
LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS SHOWING MAIN SCATTERED CONVECTION
LIFTING WELL NORTHWEST OF THE CWA ALONG AND BEHIND THE MAIN SURFACE
COLD FRONT. EXPECT THIS EAST NORTH DAKOTAS ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NORTH
OF THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING. THE LATEST HRRR DID SHOW
SOME SHOWER POSSIBILITY INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST CWA THIS
MORNING...BUT THE MAIN SHOW SHOULD BE INTO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THIS MODEL MOVES WHAT APPEARS TO BE A MCV OR VORT MAX ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AT THIS
TIME...INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA THROUGH POSSIBLE 18Z. IT
UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT IT EAST/NORTHEAST AND
SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THE VARIOUS HIRES MODELS THEN MOVE THE FRONT INTO CENTRAL MN BY 04Z
OR SO...A BIT FASTER THAN THE NAM ESPECIALLY...WHICH APPEARS TO BE
THE SLOWEST OF THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS. THE FRONT SHOULD EXIT INTO
WESTERN WI THROUGH 06Z OR SO...WITH AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND OF
CONVECTION. INITIALLY SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS DUE DEVELOP INTO
WESTERN MINNESOTA BY THIS EVENING...WITH GFS MUCAPE PROGGED TO
INCREASE TO AROUND 2000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT/MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES TO NEAR 7.0C/KM AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR 35-40KTS. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AS IT PROPAGATES EAST INTO THE EVENING. SPC`S DAY1 OUTLOOK
OF SLIGHT RISK INTO WEST CENTRAL MN LOOKS REASONABLE AT THE
MOMENT. ALL MODELS INDICATE A WEAKENING TREND OVERNIGHT AS IT
MOVES EAST...AS THE MAIN FORCING DOES RIDE NORTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH THE UPPER JET. SO WILL CONTINUE THE TREND
OF TRAILING OFF LIKELY POPS INTO CENTRAL MN THROUGH 06Z MON.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST HAS INCREASED DURING
THE PAST 24 HOURS AS THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW PRETTY MUCH IN
STEP WITH THE SURFACE AND UPPER AIR PATTERN FOR OUR AREA THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
A COOL FRONT WILL BE MOVING EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FA ON MONDAY.
VARIOUS CAMS SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE MORNING TO
THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE TWIN CITIES ON BACK TO SIOUX FALLS.
THESE WILL DIMINISH OR END DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PASS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MN SHOULD SEE LOWS TUESDAY MORNING IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S.
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO AFFECT THE REGION
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH IN FROM THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TIMING HAS REMAINED VERY CONSISTENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH
LIKELY POPS COVERING MUCH OF THE FA ON WEDNESDAY.
THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD OVER WHAT WAS SEEN A DAY AGO.
THERE LOOKS TO BE A DRY PERIOD ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES BY. THEREFORE...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE REMOVED.
THE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY PERIODS WILL SEE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM MAY CAUSE
SOME PROBLEMS IN THE FORM OF HEAVY RAIN. TO BACK UP...THERE IS A
TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THAT BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF BRING INTO TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THIS FEATURE
MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY LATE IN THE
WEEK. THIS HAS AN AFFECT ON OUR WEATHER SYSTEM COMING IN FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY SLOWING IT DOWN AND STRETCHING OUT A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY JUST TO OUR SOUTH FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AS THIS
OCCURS...WE ARE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
JET...AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WITH THE 925-850MB THETA-E
AXIS POINTING FROM NEBRASKA THROUGH EASTERN MN AND WI. THIS SETUP IS
SIMILAR TO A PREDECESSOR RAIN EVENT WITH A TROPICAL SYSTEM. THE
GFS IS PROGGING PW/S OVER 2 INCHES OVER THE REGION WHICH IS ABOVE
THE DAILY MAX ON THE KMPX SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY. BOTH MODELS SHOW
2-4 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE FA DURING THIS PERIOD AND THIS IS
WHERE THE STORY GETS INTERESTING. A BREAKDOWN ON THE PRECIP TYPE
FROM THE GFS SHOWS THAT THE TOTAL IS DOMINATED BY STABLE PRECIP.
THIS IS SIMILAR TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK WHEN THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS WERE SHOWING HIGH AMOUNTS OF QPF FOR US WHEN THE CAMS
SHOWED IT FARTHER SOUTH. JUST LOOKING AT THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
WITH THE LOW NEAR THE IA/MN BORDER WITH A WARM FRONT TO EXTENDING
TO THE EAST...ONE WOULD THINK THAT THERE SHOULD BE MORE CONVECTIVE
PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH. A CHECK OF THE CIPS ANALOGS FOR 120 HOURS
USING THE GFS SHOWED THE HEAVIEST RAINS WERE FROM IA AND IL ON
SOUTHWARD. WE SHALL SEE. THE END OF WEEK FORECAST DOES HAVE LIKELY
POPS PUSHING EAST AND SOUTH ACROSS THE FA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1002 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
WE EXPECT CEILINGS AND VIS TO BEGIN LOWERING LATE THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE TAF SITES IN EASTERN MN AND
WESTERN WI HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AT IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY KEAU AND KRNH. THE CLOUDS AND FOG COULD
ALSO BE SLOW TO CLEAR TOMORROW MORNING WITH WEAK WINDS AND THE
LACK OF EXPECTED MIXING.
KMSP...
THE AIRPORT IS TYPICALLY FAIRLY RESISTANT TO FOG...BUT WE THINK
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR AT LEAST SOME FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
LATE TONIGHT GIVEN THE WEAK WINDS AND ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE WORSE ACROSS THE RIVER IN WI. THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDER RETURNS LATE TOMORROW EVENING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. CHC MVFR/SHRA EARLY MONDAY. WINDS NNW 10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. CHC OF TSRA LATE. WINDS NE 5-10 KTS.
WED...MVFR. TSRA/SHRA LIKELY WITH IFR CONDS POSSIBLE. WINDS SE
5-10 KTS BECMG NE.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...CLF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
410 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) PRIOR TO DAWN
THE REGION WAS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFF
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS WAS PROVIDING CONTINUED TRANSPORT OF
HIGH MOISTURE PWATS OF AROUND 2 INCHES GENERALLY WEST OF THE MS
RIVER...WHILE DRYER PWATS OF AROUND 1.5 WAS NOTED IN THE EAST UNDER
THE STRONGER INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. AREA RADARS WERE SHOWING
SOME SHOWERS OVER WESTERN LOUISIANA.
FOR TODAY THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH BEFORE LIFTING. SO HAVE PUT
PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG FOR THOSE AREAS. HIRES MODELS SHOWS VERY
LITTLE ACTIVITY FOR EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AS WE PUSH INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE ACTIVITY
WILL TRACK NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY. EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
TO BE ACROSS THE WEST AND THE LOWEST POPS IN THE EAST WHERE THE
RIDGE INFLUENCE WILL BE THE BEST. WILL BE LOOKING FOR SOME
INSTABILITY WITH LACK OF SHEAR FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH
THE IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THERE MAY BE A STRONG STORM OR
TWO DUE TO MESOSCALE PROCESSES FROM OTHER STORMS. SOME MORE PATCHY
FOG MAY DEVELOP IN PORTIONS OF THE EAST AND SOUTH FOR EARLY MONDAY.
MODELS SHOWS THAT THE MEAN RIDGE FROM THE EAST WILL HAVE A STRONGER
INFLUENCE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BE REFLECTED BY THE
LOWER POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE REGION. EXPECT THE
ACTIVITY TO DECREASE ACROSS THE WEST HALF DURING THE EVENING. SOME
ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAY LINGER OVER THE FAR WEST ON MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 AND LOWS IN
THE LOWER 70S. /17/
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...RAIN CHANCES IN GENERAL
SHOULD BE NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR MID TO LATE JUNE WITH
LEVELS OF HEAT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THERE ACTUALLY IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR EASTERN ZONES TO BE A LITTLE DRY THROUGH THIS
PERIOD..OWING MAINLY TO THE POSITION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH ENCROACHING
FROM THE EAST.
THE BIG WILD CARD FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST OVER OUR REGION WILL BE
THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE WESTERN GULF
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE NHC IS MONITORING FOR DEVELOPMENT VERY
CLOSELY AND MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A WEAK SYSTEM WHICH
IMPACTS THE SE TX COAST AROUND LATE TUESDAY...AND THEN PROGRESSES
NORTH TOWARD THE ARKLATEX AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS RIDGE. IF THIS SYSTEM DOES INDEED DEVELOP AND FOLLOWS THE
EASTERN ENVELOPE OF POSSIBLE MODEL SOLUTIONS THEN IT WILL PROBABLY
BRING GOOD RAIN CHANCES (AND MAYBE EVEN POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN) TO FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY. CHANCES ARE BETTER THAN AVERAGE THAT AT THE VERY
LEAST RAIN OPPORTUNITIES WILL INCREASE FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
SOMEWHAT IN THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY TIME FRAME AS THE DISTURBANCE
PHASES WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM AND INDUCES INCREASED LIFT AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AS IT PASSES TO OUR NORTH. AT THIS POINT THERE IS
WAY TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO WARRANT ANY HWO INCLUSION FOR HEAVY RAIN
THREATS IN WESTERN ZONES...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND MODELS ARE TRYING TO ORGANIZE A COLD FRONT
IN THE PLAINS WHICH EVENTUALLY COULD BE HEADED THIS WAY.
CONCURRENTLY THE BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS MAY START
BREAKING DOWN A BIT ALTHOUGH HEAT AND DRYNESS MAY MAKE A RESURGENCE
FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE ANY FRONT GETS CLOSE. /BB/
&&
.AVIATION...IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
BEFORE LIFTING AROUND 15Z SUNDAY. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM AGAIN TOMORROW. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS
FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT KGTR AND KMEI...WHERE SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT MAY
LIMIT STORM DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT THE STORMS TO DIMINISH DURING THE
EVENING./17/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 89 72 90 72 / 42 12 26 14
MERIDIAN 90 70 91 71 / 21 11 12 11
VICKSBURG 89 73 90 73 / 47 20 34 21
HATTIESBURG 89 72 90 73 / 35 12 26 13
NATCHEZ 87 73 88 73 / 48 21 39 22
GREENVILLE 90 73 90 74 / 42 33 20 26
GREENWOOD 90 72 91 73 / 34 20 14 21
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
17/BB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
250 AM PDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA TODAY
BEFORE A DRY...WESTERLY FLOW RETURNS FROM MONDAY ONWARD. THIS WILL
BRING HOT CONDITIONS TO THE AREA WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY EVENING PROVED ACTIVE ONCE AGAIN AS LINGERING MOISTURE LEFT
BEHIND FROM THE REMAINS OF BLANCA CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE
SOUTHWEST AND INTERACT WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED ONCE AGAIN TODAY SO
ISOLATED STORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE. IVE INCREASED POPS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON GIVEN THE RELUCTANCE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO WANE OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS. GREATEST CHANCES ARE AGAIN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
BUT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ALWAYS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SPARK ACTIVITY
IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION....EARLY RUNS OF THE HRRR BREAK
OUT SOME CONVECTION EVEN IN SOME LOWER ELEVATIONS AFTER 18Z SO THE
POTENTIAL FOR ONE MORE DAY OF ACTIVITY IS CERTAINLY THERE.
ON MONDAY...STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING SOME DRIER AIR INTO
THE AREA AND SOME INCREASED STABILITY...SQUASHING ANY REMAINING
CONVECTIVE CHANCES WE HAVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
OTHERWISE...HOT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY WITH VEGAS REACHING INTO
THE 104-107 RANGE AND WARMER STILL ON MONDAY...BETWEEN 105 AND 110.
AREAS ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WILL BE CREEPING INTO THE 110S
AND DEATH VALLEY WILL BE APPROACHING 120 BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN THE FIRST PROLONGED PERIOD OF TRIPLE
DIGIT HEAT IN DESERT LOCALES THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE SOUTHWEST US. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN WILL KEEP THE RIDGE FAIRLY FLAT THROUGH THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK BEFORE THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS
PATTERN WILL YIELD BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS EACH AFTERNOON
THIS WEEK. THIS WILL AID IN MIXING...BUMPING AFTERNOON HIGHS UP A
FEW DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON...YIELDING THE HOTTEST DAYS OF 2015 SO
FAR THIS WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RUN ROUGHLY 6-9 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MID-JUNE...RANGING FROM 103-110 ACROSS MOST DESERT
LOCATIONS...WITH LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS SUCH AS DEATH VALLEY...AND
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY EASILY EXCEEDING 110 AND PERHAPS 115 AT
TIMES THROUGH LATE WEEK. DEATH VALLEY COULD REACH AND EXCEED 120 BY
MID TO LATE WEEK. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT MOST RECORDS WILL
REMAIN SAFE NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES IN THE LAS VEGAS
VALLEY WILL LIKELY APPROACH EXCESSIVE HEAT CRITERIA THRESHOLD OF 110
BY LATE WEEK AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
INDIVIDUALS AND ORGANIZATIONS HERE AND IN OTHER DESERT LOCATIONS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO PLAN AHEAD BY CHECKING AIR CONDITIONERS...VEHICLE
MAINTENANCE...ETC...AS WELL AS EXERCISING HEAT SAFETY DURING THIS
PROLONGED PERIOD. REMEMBER...HEAT IS THE LEADING WEATHER RELATED
KILLER IN OUR CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WITH EASTERLY
COMPONENTS EXPECTED IN THE MORNING HOURS TRANSISTIONING TO SOUTHERLY
AFTER 21Z IN THE 9-12KT RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 18KTS. SOME SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE AIRFIELD DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AND MAY RESULT IN GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS. DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR OUTFLOW RELATED WIND DIRECTION SHIFTS...CONFIDENCE IN
THE WIND FORECAST IS LOW AND WILL DEPEND ON WHERE CONVECTION FORMS.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA AGAIN POSSIBLE TODAY
ESPECIALLY EAST OF A KDAG...KTPH LINE. GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AND
CONVECTIVE TURBULENCE EXPECTED NEAR SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY.
OTHERWISE SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON OF 10-15KTS
ALTHOUGH VARIABLE NEAR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...OUTLER
LONG TERM...PULLIN
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
451 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND PERSISTENT RIDGING
ALOFT...WILL CREATE HOT TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY EXCEED 100
DEGREES...AND MAY REACH 105 DEGREES OR HIGHER MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL WEAKEN SOME
BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY LOWER
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...THE HEAT WILL BE ON TODAY. WE ARE NOT QUITE
FORECASTING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ALTHOUGH PROSPECTS FOR MEETING
CRITERIA DO INCREASE IN THE COMING DAYS. FOR TODAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW
INLAND SPOTS MAY EXPERIENCE HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 DEG FOR AN HOUR
OR SO...MIXING IS EXPECTED TO BRING DEWPOINTS DOWN JUST ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE A HEAT ADVISORY. HOWEVER...ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA...WE DO EXPECT MANY PLACES WILL REACH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 102
TO 104 DEG FOR A FEW HOURS TODAY. WE WILL REISSUE AN SPS TO ADDRESS
THE HEAT.
TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL RISE TO ABOUT 20 DEG C TODAY. THIS IS A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN ON SAT. ON SAT...MANY INLAND THERMOMETERS REGISTERED
UPPER 90S AND A FEW SPOTS...LIKE LBT...REACHED 100 DEG. LOCATIONS
NEARER TO THE COAST WERE MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 90S. THEREFORE...ALL
ELSE BEING EQUAL...MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE AS WARM IF NOT A DEGREE OR
TWO WARMER TODAY. WE ARE FORECASTING WIDESPREAD HIGHS VERY NEAR THE
CENTURY MARK INLAND. THE MORE COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE MID
AND UPPER 90S. THE SEABREEZE SHOULD MAKE SLIGHTLY BETTER PROGRESS
INLAND AS THE WESTERLY WINDS IN THE LOWEST 5 KFT WILL BE LIGHT
TODAY. HOWEVER...THIS WILL ONLY SERVE TO KEEP COASTAL DEWPOINTS
ELEVATED OR INCREASE THEM SLIGHTLY WHICH WILL ONLY ADD TO THE
DISCOMFORT LEVEL.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A VERY WARM RIDGE ALOFT WILL IN
CONCERT BRING A BONA FIDE HEAT WAVE TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS
WEEK. RECORD HIGHS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO REACH OR EXCEED TODAY...
THE RECORD HIGH AT FLO IS 102 SET IN 1958 AND THE FORECAST HIGH FOR
TODAY IS 99.
THE RECORD HIGH AT ILM IS 99 SET IN 1958 AND THE FORECAST HIGH FOR
TODAY IS 97.
THE RECORD HIGH AT CRE IS 98 SET IN 2010 AND THE FORECAST HIGH FOR
TODAY IS 93.
TEMPS AFTER SUNSET WILL BE VERY WARM WITH MANY PLACES STILL NEAR 80
DEG AS LATE AS THE MIDNIGHT HOUR. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE MID AND
UPPER 70S.
AS FAR AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONCERNED. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE SUBSIDENCE TODAY WHICH WOULD BE A DETRIMENT TO
DEVELOPING CONVECTION. HOWEVER...VERY STRONG HEATING WILL INCREASE
INSTABILITY WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND
2000 J/KG. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN NEAR 2 INCHES.
ALTHOUGH TEMPS ARE WARM ALOFT...THEY ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE WARM
ENOUGH TO SERVE AS A CAPPING INVERSION. BOUNDARIES WHICH MAY SERVE
TO FOCUS THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCLUDE THE SEABREEZE AND THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH. ALSO...A VERY WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST DURING THE TIME OF PEAK
HEATING. TAKING THE HRRR FORECAST INTO ACCOUNT...WILL OPT FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE.
ALTHOUGH THIS HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL HAS NOT INITIALIZED VERY WELL
THIS HOUR...IT DOES SHOW THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ACROSS
OUR INLAND ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...DANGEROUS AND RECORD BREAKING HEAT DURING
THIS PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH STRADDLING
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH OVER SOUTHERN NC...MUCH OF SC...AND
ACROSS EASTERN GEORGIA...DURING THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SFC
RIDGING FROM THE CENTER OF THE OFFSHORE BERMUDA HIGH WILL EXTEND
WSW INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. AT THE SAME TIME...THE SFC PIEDMONT
TROF WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS THRUOUT THIS
PERIOD. THIS SFC PRESSURE PATTERN WILL RESULT WITH SFC SW-NW
WINDS ACROSS THE ILM CWA...AND SOUTHERLY WINDS CLOSER TO THE
COAST EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING DUE TO THE DAILY SEA BREEZE.
AS FOR MAX AND MIN TEMPS...HAVE STAYED CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY
HOTTER GFS MOS MODEL GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY WITH DAILY MAX TEMPS.
A GOOD CHUNK OF THE FA WILL BE LOOKING AT POSSIBLE 100+ DEGREE
TEMPERATURE READINGS EACH DAY...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST AND THE EFFECTS FROM THE INLAND PROGRESSING AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE. EVENTHOUGH THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL NOT EXPERIENCE
THE AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS THAT INLAND AREAS DO...BUT THEY WILL
HOWEVER EXPERIENCE HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGHER
RHS. WITH THIS SAID...THE AREA INCLUDING THE IMMEDIATE
COAST...WILL BE LOOKING AT PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 104 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE. THIS PLACES
THE FA WITHIN HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND LIKELY ONE WILL BE
ISSUED FOR THIS TIME PERIOD LATER TODAY. FOR THE TIME BEING...A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE UPCOMING DANGEROUS HEAT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM WITH 75-80 DEGREE READINGS
BOTH NIGHTS...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
WHERE LOCAL SSTS ARE NOW IN THE LOWER 80S.
AS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH DAY...HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR EACH AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. THIS TO OCCUR WITH WEAK UVVS ALONG
THE INLAND PROGRESSING SEA BREEZE. THE CONVECTION WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED AND WEAK WITH VERY LITTLE HELP OR SUPPORT FROM ALOFT DUE TO
THE LACK OF ANY S/W TROFS/VORTS PASSING OVERHEAD.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...THE EXTENDED PROGS INDICATE THE UPPER HIGH
AND ASSOCIATED RIDGING ACROSS THE FA WEDNESDAY...IS EXPECTED TO
SLIDE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST LATE THU THRU SATURDAY. THIS A RESULT
OF FORCING FROM A MODEST BUT POTENT UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL S/W TROF
UPSTREAM...THAT PUSHES FROM THE LOWER PLAINS STATES TO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS COME SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...WEDNESDAY AND
POSSIBLY THU WILL BE THE HOTTEST OF THE 4 DAYS IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. WITH RELATIVELY NO CHANGE IN THE MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...THE COMBINATION OF RH WITH AFTN TEMPS WED AND THU
WILL YIELD HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 100-104...WITH A FEW 105
READINGS ESPECIALLY ON WED. OVERALL...WILL SEE DAILY MAXES LOWER
BY A DEGREE OR 2 DURING EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY...WITH THE GFS MOS
GUIDANCE ILLUSTRATING THIS WELL.
WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH PROGRESSING EAST OF THE ILM
CWA DURING THIS PERIOD...UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL S/W TROFS/VORTS WILL
HAVE A CHANCE TO PUSH ACROSS THE FA. THE TIMING OF THIS OCCURRENCE
DURING THE DAY...IE. INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE SEA BREEZE...WILL
BE CRUCIAL IN DETERMINING THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. CURRENTLY
15-20 POPS WED AND THU...THAT INCREASE TO 30-40 POPS FRI INTO
SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT SW-
W WINDS. CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED BUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE
RULED OUT THIS MORNING. DO NOT EXPECT ANY VSBY ISSUES DUE TO FOG.
VFR WITH W-NW WINDS EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE...EXCEPT WINDS WILL BE
SHIFTING TO THE S WITH THE SEA BREEZE LATE MORNING AT KCRE AND IN
THE AFTERNOON AT KMYR AND KILM. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED ATTM ALONG THE SEA BREEZE PINNED NEAR THE COAST DUE TO DEEP
NW FLOW ALOFT...AND ALONG A WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH LOCATED NEAR THE
INLAND TERMINALS. WILL ONLY INDICATE VCSH ATTM. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 02Z.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH
MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONCERT WITH A LARGE
UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WILL INCLUDE
THE MORNING LAND BREEZE AND THE NEARLY PINNED AFTERNOON AND EVE
SEABREEZE. THE WIND DIRECTION TO START THE PERIOD WILL BE FROM THE W
AND NW 10 KT OR LESS. SW WINDS WILL RETURN BY LATE MORNING AND THEN
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE 10 TO 15 KT...WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE DUE
TO SEABREEZE INFLUENCES. ANY NOCTURNAL JETTING LOOKS RATHER WEAK
TONIGHT...SO DO NOT EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE. SEAS WILL BE 2
TO 3 FT THROUGHOUT.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN
VA/NORTHERN NC WILL EXIST WITHIN A REGIME DOMINATED BY HOT HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT. WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION WILL BE GOVERNED MAINLY
BY DIURNAL SEABREEZE/LANDBREEZE PROCESSES. WESTERLY WINDS BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY DURING BOTH
AFTERNOONS. SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 2 FEET...EXCEPT BUILDING TO 3 FEET
MONDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM
SUNDAY...SFC RIDGING WILL EXTEND WESTWARD FROM THE CENTER OF THE
BERMUDA HIGH TO ACROSS FLORIDA. THIS SFC PRESSURE POSITIONING WILL
RESULT IN WESTERLY WINDS TO START THE DAY THAT BACK TO THE SSW-SW
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO
THE SEA BREEZE. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RELAXED FOR
MONDAY WITH 10 KT WIND SPEEDS COMMON...EXCEPT NEAR SHORE WHERE THE
SEA-BREEZE COULD PUSH SPEEDS TO 10-15 KT. THE SFC PG IS PROGGED TO
TIGHTEN-SOME EARLY TUE THRU TUE NIGHT. THIS COULD RESULT IN A
SOLID 15 KT WIND SPEED. AS FOR SIGNIFICANT SEAS...THE LOCAL WATERS
WILL BE LOOKING AT 2 TO OCCASIONALLY 3 FT...WITH 4 TO 5 SECOND
WIND DRIVEN WAVES AND A 1 FOOT ESE 11 SECOND PERIOD GROUND SWELL
DUKING IT OUT TO WHICH DOMINATES.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...DURING THIS PERIOD...THE AREA WATERS WILL
LIE BETWEEN THE NE-SW ORIENTED SFC TROF OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...AND THE SFC RIDGING THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
BERMUDA HIGH WELL OFFSHORE FROM THE SE U.S....ACROSS THE FLORIDA
COAST. THIS WILL PREDOMINATELY PRODUCE A SW WIND DIRECTION THRU
THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE NOT AS PRONOUNCED...COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS...WITH THE PROGGED TIGHTENED SFC PG ACROSS THE AREA
WATERS WEDNESDAY THRU THURSDAY. WILL NOT ENTIRELY BUY THIS
OUTPUT...BUT WILL MENTION A SOLID 10-15 KT WIND SPEED THRU THE
PERIOD...POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 15-20 KT LATE THU.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FEET...POSSIBLY UP TO 4 FT LATER
THU. WIND DRIVEN WAVES AT 4 TO 5 SECOND PERIODS WILL DOMINATE THE
SIGNIFICANT SEAS. A LESS THAN 1 FOOT...11 SECOND PERIOD...ESE
GROUND SWELL TO REMAIN IDENTIFIABLE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY NOT BE RECORD-BREAKING
HEAT IT`S STILL THE FIRST TIME IN ALMOST 3 YEARS WE`VE HAD THESE
KIND OF TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST.
...MOST RECENT HOT TEMPERATURE OCCURRENCES...
97 98 99 100 101 102 103
WILMINGTON 6/20/14 7/27/12 7/27/12 7/27/12 7/27/12 6/30/12 6/30/12
MYRTLE BEACH 7/24/12 7/24/12 7/28/05 7/27/05 7/27/05 8/17/54 8/17/54
FLORENCE 9/02/14 9/02/14 9/02/14 7/09/14 7/26/12 7/09/12 7/01/12
THIS INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE GRAPHICALLY ON OUR FACEBOOK &
TWITTER PAGES.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DCH
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...RJD/MRR
CLIMATE...TRA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
421 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND PERSISTENT RIDGING
ALOFT...WILL CREATE HOT TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY EXCEED 100
DEGREES...AND MAY REACH 105 DEGREES OR HIGHER MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL WEAKEN SOME
BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY LOWER
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...THE HEAT WILL BE ON TODAY. WE ARE NOT QUITE
FORECASTING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ALTHOUGH PROSPECTS FOR MEETING
CRITERIA DO INCREASE IN THE COMING DAYS. FOR TODAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW
INLAND SPOTS MAY EXPERIENCE HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 DEG FOR AN HOUR
OR SO...MIXING IS EXPECTED TO BRING DEWPOINTS DOWN JUST ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE A HEAT ADVISORY. HOWEVER...ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA...WE DO EXPECT MANY PLACES WILL REACH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 102
TO 104 DEG FOR A FEW HOURS TODAY. WE WILL REISSUE AN SPS TO ADDRESS
THE HEAT.
TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL RISE TO ABOUT 20 DEG C TODAY. THIS IS A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN ON SAT. ON SAT...MANY INLAND THERMOMETERS REGISTERED
UPPER 90S AND A FEW SPOTS...LIKE LBT...REACHED 100 DEG. LOCATIONS
NEARER TO THE COAST WERE MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 90S. THEREFORE...ALL
ELSE BEING EQUAL...MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE AS WARM IF NOT A DEGREE OR
TWO WARMER TODAY. WE ARE FORECASTING WIDESPREAD HIGHS VERY NEAR THE
CENTURY MARK INLAND. THE MORE COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE MID
AND UPPER 90S. THE SEABREEZE SHOULD MAKE SLIGHTLY BETTER PROGRESS
INLAND AS THE WESTERLY WINDS IN THE LOWEST 5 KFT WILL BE LIGHT
TODAY. HOWEVER...THIS WILL ONLY SERVE TO KEEP COASTAL DEWPOINTS
ELEVATED OR INCREASE THEM SLIGHTLY WHICH WILL ONLY ADD TO THE
DISCOMFORT LEVEL.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A VERY WARM RIDGE ALOFT WILL IN
CONCERT BRING A BONA FIDE HEAT WAVE TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS
WEEK. RECORD HIGHS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO REACH OR EXCEED TODAY...
THE RECORD HIGH AT FLO IS 102 SET IN 1958 AND THE FORECAST HIGH FOR
TODAY IS 99.
THE RECORD HIGH AT ILM IS 99 SET IN 1958 AND THE FORECAST HIGH FOR
TODAY IS 97.
THE RECORD HIGH AT CRE IS 98 SET IN 2010 AND THE FORECAST HIGH FOR
TODAY IS 93.
TEMPS AFTER SUNSET WILL BE VERY WARM WITH MANY PLACES STILL NEAR 80
DEG AS LATE AS THE MIDNIGHT HOUR. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE MID AND
UPPER 70S.
AS FAR AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONCERNED. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE SUBSIDENCE TODAY WHICH WOULD BE A DETRIMENT TO
DEVELOPING CONVECTION. HOWEVER...VERY STRONG HEATING WILL INCREASE
INSTABILITY WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND
2000 J/KG. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN NEAR 2 INCHES.
ALTHOUGH TEMPS ARE WARM ALOFT...THEY ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE WARM
ENOUGH TO SERVE AS A CAPPING INVERSION. BOUNDARIES WHICH MAY SERVE
TO FOCUS THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCLUDE THE SEABREEZE AND THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH. ALSO...A VERY WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST DURING THE TIME OF PEAK
HEATING. TAKING THE HRRR FORECAST INTO ACCOUNT...WILL OPT FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE.
ALTHOUGH THIS HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL HAS NOT INITIALIZED VERY WELL
THIS HOUR...IT DOES SHOW THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ACROSS
OUR INLAND ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...DANGEROUS AND RECORD BREAKING HEAT DURING
THIS PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH STRADDLING
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH OVER SOUTHERN NC...MUCH OF SC...AND
ACROSS EASTERN GEORGIA...DURING THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SFC
RIDGING FROM THE CENTER OF THE OFFSHORE BERMUDA HIGH WILL EXTEND
WSW INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. AT THE SAME TIME...THE SFC PIEDMONT
TROF WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS THRUOUT THIS
PERIOD. THIS SFC PRESSURE PATTERN WILL RESULT WITH SFC SW-NW
WINDS ACROSS THE ILM CWA...AND SOUTHERLY WINDS CLOSER TO THE
COAST EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING DUE TO THE DAILY SEA BREEZE.
AS FOR MAX AND MIN TEMPS...HAVE STAYED CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY
HOTTER GFS MOS MODEL GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY WITH DAILY MAX TEMPS.
A GOOD CHUNK OF THE FA WILL BE LOOKING AT POSSIBLE 100+ DEGREE
TEMPERATURE READINGS EACH DAY...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST AND THE EFFECTS FROM THE INLAND PROGRESSING AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE. EVENTHOUGH THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL NOT EXPERIENCE
THE AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS THAT INLAND AREAS DO...BUT THEY WILL
HOWEVER EXPERIENCE HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGHER
RHS. WITH THIS SAID...THE AREA INCLUDING THE IMMEDIATE
COAST...WILL BE LOOKING AT PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 104 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE. THIS PLACES
THE FA WITHIN HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND LIKELY ONE WILL BE
ISSUED FOR THIS TIME PERIOD LATER TODAY. FOR THE TIME BEING...A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE UPCOMING DANGEROUS HEAT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM WITH 75-80 DEGREE READINGS
BOTH NIGHTS...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
WHERE LOCAL SSTS ARE NOW IN THE LOWER 80S.
AS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH DAY...HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR EACH AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. THIS TO OCCUR WITH WEAK UVVS ALONG
THE INLAND PROGRESSING SEA BREEZE. THE CONVECTION WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED AND WEAK WITH VERY LITTLE HELP OR SUPPORT FROM ALOFT DUE TO
THE LACK OF ANY S/W TROFS/VORTS PASSING OVERHEAD.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...THERE IS NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE TO THE
LONG TERM FORECAST WITH THIS LATEST UPDATE. IT IS STILL EXPECTED
THAT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE LONG
TERM AS AN UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE IN COMBINATION WITH A THERMAL TROUGH INLAND WILL CONTINUE
A LIGHT AND MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT WILL KEEP
DEWPOINTS ELEVATED IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S EACH DAY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO HEAT INDEX VALUES OF RIGHT AROUND OR EXCEEDING 100F EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE PERIOD. TUESDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE
HOTTEST DAY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AT ITS PEAK OF STRENGTH DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD. WIDESPREAD HEAT INDEX VALUES OF UP AROUND 105F ARE A
GOOD POSSIBILITY THEN. THE UPPER RIDGE BECOMES MORE SUPPRESSED TO
THE SOUTH AND DISPLACED TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER-TOPS IT...SO WILL SEE SOME MODEST DECREASE IN
TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...CONTINUED HIGH RH
VALUES WILL KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100
EACH AFTERNOON FOR THOSE DAYS.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL HELP SUPPRESS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...BUT WITH
SUCH STRONG SURFACE HEATING WE CAN EXPECT ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. CONVECTION MAY BECOME
MORE COMMON AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT SW-
W WINDS. CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED BUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE
RULED OUT THIS MORNING. DO NOT EXPECT ANY VSBY ISSUES DUE TO FOG.
VFR WITH W-NW WINDS EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE...EXCEPT WINDS WILL BE
SHIFTING TO THE S WITH THE SEA BREEZE LATE MORNING AT KCRE AND IN
THE AFTERNOON AT KMYR AND KILM. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED ATTM ALONG THE SEA BREEZE PINNED NEAR THE COAST DUE TO DEEP
NW FLOW ALOFT...AND ALONG A WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH LOCATED NEAR THE
INLAND TERMINALS. WILL ONLY INDICATE VCSH ATTM. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 02Z.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH
MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONCERT WITH A LARGE
UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WILL INCLUDE
THE MORNING LAND BREEZE AND THE NEARLY PINNED AFTERNOON AND EVE
SEABREEZE. THE WIND DIRECTION TO START THE PERIOD WILL BE FROM THE W
AND NW 10 KT OR LESS. SW WINDS WILL RETURN BY LATE MORNING AND THEN
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE 10 TO 15 KT...WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE DUE
TO SEABREEZE INFLUENCES. ANY NOCTURNAL JETTING LOOKS RATHER WEAK
TONIGHT...SO DO NOT EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE. SEAS WILL BE 2
TO 3 FT THROUGHOUT.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN
VA/NORTHERN NC WILL EXIST WITHIN A REGIME DOMINATED BY HOT HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT. WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION WILL BE GOVERNED MAINLY
BY DIURNAL SEABREEZE/LANDBREEZE PROCESSES. WESTERLY WINDS BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY DURING BOTH
AFTERNOONS. SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 2 FEET...EXCEPT BUILDING TO 3 FEET
MONDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM
SUNDAY...SFC RIDGING WILL EXTEND WESTWARD FROM THE CENTER OF THE
BERMUDA HIGH TO ACROSS FLORIDA. THIS SFC PRESSURE POSITIONING WILL
RESULT IN WESTERLY WINDS TO START THE DAY THAT BACK TO THE SSW-SW
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO
THE SEA BREEZE. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RELAXED FOR
MONDAY WITH 10 KT WIND SPEEDS COMMON...EXCEPT NEAR SHORE WHERE THE
SEA-BREEZE COULD PUSH SPEEDS TO 10-15 KT. THE SFC PG IS PROGGED TO
TIGHTEN-SOME EARLY TUE THRU TUE NIGHT. THIS COULD RESULT IN A
SOLID 15 KT WIND SPEED. AS FOR SIGNIFICANT SEAS...THE LOCAL WATERS
WILL BE LOOKING AT 2 TO OCCASIONALLY 3 FT...WITH 4 TO 5 SECOND
WIND DRIVEN WAVES AND A 1 FOOT ESE 11 SECOND PERIOD GROUND SWELL
DUKING IT OUT TO WHICH DOMINATES.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
IN COMBINATION WITH A THERMAL TROUGH INLAND WILL KEEP WINDS FROM
THE SW AND IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS NEAR SHORE WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND
WILL GUST UP INTO THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING AS THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION DEVELOPS. SEAS NEAR SHORE
WILL LIKEWISE BECOME MORE CHOPPY DURING THOSE TIMES. WINDS AND
SEAS INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS DUE TO A
STRENGTHENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS.
WINDS ON THAT DAY MAY INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE...WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY NOT BE RECORD-BREAKING
HEAT IT`S STILL THE FIRST TIME IN ALMOST 3 YEARS WE`VE HAD THESE
KIND OF TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST.
...MOST RECENT HOT TEMPERATURE OCCURRENCES...
97 98 99 100 101 102 103
WILMINGTON 6/20/14 7/27/12 7/27/12 7/27/12 7/27/12 6/30/12 6/30/12
MYRTLE BEACH 7/24/12 7/24/12 7/28/05 7/27/05 7/27/05 8/17/54 8/17/54
FLORENCE 9/02/14 9/02/14 9/02/14 7/09/14 7/26/12 7/09/12 7/01/12
THIS INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE GRAPHICALLY ON OUR FACEBOOK &
TWITTER PAGES.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DCH
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...RJD/MRR
CLIMATE...TRA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1153 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
FRONT LOCATED NEAR HALLOCK TO JUST WEST OF GRAND FORKS TO ABOUT
JAMESTOWN. CONVECTION HAS RE-FIRED AS A SUBTLE SHORT WAVE HAS
MOVED NORTHEAST FROM NW SD INTO SCNTRL ND. INCREASED POPS A TAD IN
AREA OF CURRENT ACTIVITY WHICH LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE MID VALLEY
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. THE LATEST CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER IN
DEVELOPING CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE HRRR STILL
DEVELOPS CONVECTION BY 3 PM.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...EXPECT AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COLD FRONT. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE WITH HAIL/WIND...BUT THE LACK OF STRONGER DEEP
LAYERED SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE. THERE WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR STRONGER/PERSISTENT STORMS GIVEN PWATS CLOSE
TO 1.5 INCHES. THE CONVECTION SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST AND
SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH ANY SEVERE THREAT GONE BY 6Z WITH A FAIRLY
WEAK LLJ.
ON SUNDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD AID CONVECTION MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE WILL
BE SOME INSTABILITY AND A BIT MORE SHEAR THAN TODAY...AND THERE IS
A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THE SOUTH.
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...THE CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF THE
SOUTH WITH STABLE/COOLER AIR BUILDING IN.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
ON MONDAY...EXPECT A DRY AND COOL DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.
FOR TUE...RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN IN THE WEST AND SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL MOVE IN BY AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS OR STORMS AFFECTING THE WEST...BUT DEEPER
INSTABILITY/MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR
AREA.
FOR WED THROUGH SAT...THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH A ZONAL
BECOMING NW FLOW PATTER ALOFT AND A CENTRAL PLAINS LOW GENERATING
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA TUE NIGHT INTO
WED. MODELS DIVERGE BEYOND THIS SYSTEM...WITH GFS SHOWING A MORE
AMPLIFIED SW RIDGE PROVIDING A BREAK IN ACTIVITY ON THU. GFS THEN
SHOWS A TRANSITION TO SW FLOW ALOFT AND MORE ACTIVITY DURING THE
END OF THE WEEK. OVERALL MAIN THEME IS AN ACTIVE WEEK WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF BREAKS DUE TO MODEL INCONSISTENCIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
BEST BET FOR TSTM OVERNIGHT IS IN FARGO WITH BEST BET FOR SHOWERS
SUNDAY IN FARGO. REST OF TAF SITES GENERALLY DRY...WITH GFK-BJI ON
NRN EDGE OF ANY PRECIP. EXPECT VFR SKIES THRU THE AREA. LIGHT
WINDS GRADUALLY NORTHWEST AS FRONT SLIPS THROUGH.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/SPEICHER
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1237 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
WATCHING SOME ENERGY EMBEDDED IN AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WORK
ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA/NORTHERN WYOMING AT THIS TIME. OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...HAVE SEEN SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OUT ACROSS SAID AREA...PERHAPS OFFERING A BIT OF
CONFIDENCE TO THE CONVECTION FORECAST TREND THE HRRR HAS BEEN
CONSISTENTLY GENERATING OVER THE PAST 5 HOURS...OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE AS EVERYTHING
SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS LATE TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. DID GO AHEAD AND NUDGE POPS UP A FEW HOURS LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MARCHING LIKELY POPS QUICKLY
ACROSS THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST. ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOT MUCH
CONVECTION OUT THERE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SODAK RIGHT NOW...WILL
LEAVE THE CHC/SLT CHC POPS GOING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS
THAT IS WHERE THE GREATEST /ALBEIT WEAK/ LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/FORCING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RESIDES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
WEAK STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO FIRE ALONG THE FRONT IN WESTERN CORSON
ALREADY...HOWEVER MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN NORTH
DAKOTA WHERE THERE IS BETTER SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND FLOW ALOFT.
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS IN LINE WITH THIS REALITY...FOCUSING
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION ACROSS THE BORDER IN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
A WEAK WAVE WILL PASS OVERHEAD TONIGHT...FOLLOWING THE NORTH/SOUTH
DAKOTA STATE LINE. ALL THE LATEST RUNS OF THE ARW/NMM/HRRR/ABRWRF
GENERATE CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE DESPITE A LACK OF A
DISCERNIBLE LOW LEVEL JET...AND WILL LIKELY PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR POPS. AS THE WAVE PASSES EAST...SHIFTING THE FRONT
SOUTHWARDS...DAYTIME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WILL RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. THERE WILL BE AROUND 2000 J/KG MLCAPE
AVAILABLE...HOWEVER PROFILES LACK LOW/MID LEVEL SHEAR WITH MAINLY
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT....AND WE ALSO LACK A DISCERNIBLE WAVE ALOFT.
HIGH RES GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS ORGANIZED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...THOUGH GIVEN CAPE...COULD STILL DEVELOP A
SEVERE STORM OR TWO WITH A LOCALIZED WIND/HAIL THREAT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY...AND
PROVIDE FOR MAINLY STABLE/DRY CONDITIONS IN NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FEATURE MAINLY ZONAL FLOW THROUGHOUT
THE LONG TERM PERIOD. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE ONLY SHORTWAVES TO
AFFECT THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WILL SEE A DECENT CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE. MODELS THEN BEGIN TO SHOW BIG
DIFFERENCES IN THE SURFACE PATTERN AS THE GFS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING IN AND KEEPING THE AREA DRY FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF BRINGS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS THEN QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS THEN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A
DECENT POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE
SECOND SHORTWAVE AND A RETURN TO DRIER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. AS
USUAL THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE SUPERBLEND IS SATURATED WITH POPS
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HAVE TRIED TO TEMPER THEM BACK SOME
WHERE THE POTENTIAL IS THERE TO SEE DRY CONDITIONS.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO BE THE RULE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
TAFS CONTINUE TO BE VFR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEY ALSO CONTINUE
TO CARRY A TREND OF PRECIP MENTION EARLY THIS MORNING INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF CONDITIONS BRIEFLY
FALL INTO IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...TDK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
411 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. IS
EXTENDING ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE MIDSOUTH. QUIET ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPS RANGE FROM 70 TO 75 WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS.
TODAY...SIMILAR TO SATURDAY. EXPECTING SOME LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
THIS MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE BY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS CLIMBING TO AROUND 90. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE
SHOULD BE GREATEST ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS AND LESSER TOWARD THE
TN RIVER. THE HRRR SHOWS A SCENARIO SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH A
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE LOWER
MS VALLEY LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING...A LITTLE FURTHER WEST
THAN SATURDAYS ACTIVITY...PROBABLY DUE TO SLIGHTLY STRONGER UPPER
RIDGE. A STRONG STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
TONIGHT...BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION DURING THE EVENING WILL BE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER. MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WILL
DISSIPATE BY MID EVENING WITH ANOTHER MILD NIGHT ON TAP. LOWS 70
TO 75.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE ACROSS
THE REGION SO AFTERNOON/EVENING COVERAGE SHOULD BE A LITTLE LESS.
BEST CHANCES WILL BE AT THE NW EDGES OF THE FORECAST AREAS WHILE
LOCATIONS NEAR THE TN RIVER AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WILL BE
MOSTLY RAINFREE. HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN
RESPONSE TO THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER RIDGE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS DEALING
WITH THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE WESTERN GULF. THE
NAM BRINGS THE SYSTEM THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS AND AND INTO SOUTHERN
MISSOURI TUESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE THE GFS BRINGS IT FURTHER WEST
INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS AND EVENTUALLY TRACKS IT INTO THE MIDSOUTH ON
THU. THE ECMWF IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR THOUGH A LITTLE SLOWER. AS A
RESULT THE FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN SINCE THIS FEATURE WILL
PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN PRECIP CHANCES BY MIDDLE INTO THE END
OF THE WEEK. FOR NOW DISCOUNTED THE FAST NAM AND WILL GO WITH A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. WARM...MOSTLY LOWER
90S...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS NW SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
EXPECT THIS SYSTEM TO INFLUENCE THE MIDSOUTH MORE TOWARD THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AND WENT WITH CHANCE POPS AREAWIDE. CERTAINLY COULD BE
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM AS MODEL PWS ARE GREATER
THAN 2 INCHES AS IT MOVES THROUGH. TEMPS THU/FRI SHOULD BE A
LITTLE COOLER WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODELS HAVE THE SYSTEM EXITING THE REGION BY
THE WEEKEND SO EXPECT A RETURN TO MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION WITH DIMINISHING COVERAGE. TEMPS CLIMBING BACK INTO
THE 90S.
SJM
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS
PERSISTENCE LIKELY THE BEST FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS AND SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY. EXPECT A SCT/BKN
MVFR DECK TOWARD 12Z...WHICH SHOULD MIX OUT WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
00Z NAM MODEL DEPICTED LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON TSRA MOVING NORTH
THROUGH NW MS TOWARD MEM IN THE EARLY EVENING... IN SIMILAR
FASHION TO WHAT OCCURRED THIS EVENING.
SJM
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1130 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 935 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015/
UPDATE...
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED NORTH THIS EVENING ALTERED THE
SURFACE TEMPERATURE FIELD SIGNIFICANTLY...THEREFORE MAIN CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST WERE TO UPDATE TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND PRECIP
CHANCES OVERNIGHT.
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...LOWERED PRECIP CHANCES TO SLIGHT
CHANCE AS ATMOSPHERE IS LARGELY TURNED OVER. A ROGUE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
EXTREMELY ISOLATED. LOWS IN THE LOW AND MIDDLE 70S ARE FORECAST AS
A HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE.
TVT
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015/
DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON STILL
INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...A
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND A SUBTLE BUT
WEAK SHORTWAVE NEAR THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST. REGIONAL WSR-88D
RADAR TRENDS INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER A
GOOD PORTION OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE SOUTH OF I-20 AND ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. AS OF 2 PM CDT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ARE IN
THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE
LOWER 80S DUE TO RAIN COOLED AIR.
LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR INDICATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARM AGAIN
WITH MOST READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS
EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY. NONETHELESS...A
CONTINUATION OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WITH THE BEST CHANCES OCCURRING MAINLY WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
AXIS.
LATEST MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY NEAR
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL DRIFT NORTHWEST TOWARDS TEXAS BY MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY AND MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MIDDLE/LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS TOWARDS LATE NEXT WEEK. SOME MODEL RUN TO RUN
DISCONTINUITY EXISTS BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF WITH THE HANDLING OF
THESE TROPICAL REMNANTS AND HAVE BLENDED TOWARDS LOWER CHANCE POPS
FOR NOW UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. BEST WILL
CONTINUE TO BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS EACH
DAY COINCIDENT WITH DAYTIME HEATING. AFTERNOON HIGHS EACH DAY WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S.
CJC
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS
PERSISTENCE LIKELY THE BEST FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS AND SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY. EXPECT A SCT/BKN
MVFR DECK TOWARD 12Z...WHICH SHOULD MIX OUT WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
00Z NAM MODEL DEPICTED LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON TSRA MOVING NORTH
THROUGH NW MS TOWARD MEM IN THE EARLY EVENING... IN SIMILAR
FASHION TO WHAT OCCURRED THIS EVENING.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
402 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...
WIDESPREAD CLOUD DEBRIS FROM LAST NIGHT/S MCS WAS UNDERGOING
GRADUAL EROSION THIS MORNING FROM W-E. DESPITE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
SOUTH OF A WEAK CLOSED LOW...ADDITIONAL ATTEMPTS AT PRECIP HAVE
BEEN SUPPRESSED BY OVERWHELMING SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE
LARGE MCS. NEAR-TERM QPF ON ALL 00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS WAS VASTLY
OVERDONE IN COVERAGE WITH ALMOST NO SEMBLANCE OF THE MCS WHICH
CONTINUES TO OUR EAST AT 08Z...SO THE PRECIP FORECAST BENEFITS
FROM A HEAVY DOSE OF THE MORE REALISTIC HRRR AND VARIOUS
EXPERIMENTAL WRF MODELS.
POPS THRU 18Z HAVE BEEN DROPPED OVER MOST AREAS AS SUFFICIENT LIFT
IS JUST NOT IN THE CARDS. THIS THEME SHOULD CHANGE LATER TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS A TRAILING VORT LOBE ROTATES SEWD ACROSS THE
REGION SOUTHWEST OF A 700-500MB LOW. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT APPEARS
TO FAVOR THE WESTERN PANHANDLE NEAR THE VORT CENTER WITH
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH IN EASTERN NM.
MUCH OF OUR FOCUS WILL BE ON THE FORMER AS THE MID-LEVEL FLOW
VEERS FROM W TO NW. CAPE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE FORECAST TO BE
EVEN LESS THAN YESTERDAY...BUT VALUES ARE STILL SUFFICIENT TO
FOSTER SOME PULSY SEVERE EVENTS ESPECIALLY IF OUTFLOWS CONSOLIDATE
AND GIVE RISE TO ANOTHER NOCTURNAL MCS AS IS PROGGED BY MOST
EXPERIMENTAL WRF RUNS. POPS WERE RAMPED UP TO HIGH LIKELIES THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT WE/LL RESTRICT THE SEVERE WIND AND
HAIL MENTION TO THE HWO AS THESE THREATS LOOK TO BE VERY ISOLATED
AND MORE MARGINAL THAN RECENT DAYS.
.LONG TERM...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE DURING THE DAY MONDAY BUT DIFFER ON HOW FAR SOUTH IT
WILL MAKE IT. SINCE THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE SOME LOW LEVEL LIFT
AND CONVERGENCE...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
OUTFLOW FROM THE STORMS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PUSH THE FRONT FURTHER
SOUTH INTO OUR AREA BUT THE TREND OF LOWERING THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR AVAILABLE WILL CONTINUE. ALSO IMPACTING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON MONDAY WILL BE HOW THE POSSIBLE NOCTURNAL
MCS MENTIONED ABOVE DEVELOPS. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE
FOR THE CAPROCK WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT BUT WILL NOT PUT MENTION OF SEVERE IN AT THIS TIME.
TUESDAY IS A BIT TRICKY FOR POPS AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A
WEAK CLOSED LOW OR TROF AXIS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE REMNANT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE IN THE REGION. THE FRONT DOES LOOK TO
MIX OUT AND RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL BRING
SLIGHTLY HIGHER SURFACE MOISTURE LEVELS BACK INTO PLAY. HOWEVER...
SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN RATHER WEAK AND MAX CAPE VALUES REMAIN AT OR
UNDER 1000 J/KG SO SEVERE THREAT LOOK LOW. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
GOING THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY BUT IT APPEARS THAT WE SHOULD
FINALLY START TO DRY OUT AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES DROP BY TUESDAY
NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN LOW FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST AS WE STAY ON THE EAST SIDE OF AN ELONGATED
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THERE ARE SOME HINTS
THAT A FEW SHORTWAVES COULD RIDE AROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND
MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA IN WEAK NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WHICH COULD BRING A FEW EVENINGS OF ISOLATED STORMS. THERE
REMAINS TOO MUCH VARIABILITY TO FAVOR ANY ONE DAY OVER ANOTHER FOR
INCREASED POPS MID TO LATE WEEK BUT IT APPEARS THAT BOTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY COULD BOTH SEE SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BEFORE FINALLY WARMING BACK UP FOR THE LAST HALF OF THIS FORECAST
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS A BIT OVER THE AREA. RECENT RAINFALL WILL HELP
TO KEEP THINGS FROM HEATING UP TOO FAST BUT THE FLIP SIDE WILL BE
SOME PRETTY MUGGY AFTERNOONS LATE WEEK. ONLY OTHER THING TO WATCH
WILL BE A POSSIBLE COLD FRONT FOR THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
THAT COULD BRING A RETURN OF POPS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING THIS AS A
POSSIBILITY...WILL WATCH AND SEE HOW THE NEXT SEVERAL RUNS EVOLVE
BEFORE MAKING MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
JORDAN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 82 62 80 61 / 50 70 50 40
TULIA 81 63 80 63 / 30 70 50 50
PLAINVIEW 82 64 80 63 / 30 70 50 50
LEVELLAND 84 65 81 63 / 20 60 50 40
LUBBOCK 84 66 82 64 / 20 70 50 40
DENVER CITY 86 64 82 63 / 20 40 40 40
BROWNFIELD 86 65 82 64 / 20 60 50 40
CHILDRESS 85 68 83 68 / 20 70 60 60
SPUR 86 66 82 65 / 20 70 60 40
ASPERMONT 89 69 87 68 / 20 70 60 40
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
93/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1242 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2015
.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
Two areas of thunderstorms are currently moving through the
forecast area late tonight. Both are also dissipating as they move
eastward. Have kept a mention of VCTS in at KABI and KSOA, but
other locations are not likely to see any activity. Although these
thunderstorm complexes will temporarily affect the development of
low clouds, still expect to see MVFR CIGS develop across the area
later tonight, and have kept these CIGS in the TAFS, with low
clouds scattering out during the mid to late morning hours.
Scattered thunderstorms are possible again tomorrow afternoon and
evening, but mainly west of the area, so confidence is not yet
high enough in placement or coverage to mention in this forecast
package. 20
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2015/
AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
VFR conditions currently at all sites. Scattered showers and a
possible thunderstorm may affect KABI in the next hour or two, and
also later if the HRRR is correct in bringing a line of
thunderstorms through the area. Have kept the mention of VCTS at
KABI, KSJT and KSOA during the evening hours for this possibility.
Expect the thunderstorms if they survive this far east to
dissipate for the most part before making it to KBBD and KJCT, but
will update if convection does hang on that far east. Otherwise,
MVFR CIGS are expected to return, especially for southern areas
during the overnight hours, as winds remain southeasterly outside
of erratic gusts from thunderstorms. 20
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015/
SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)
A quasi-stationary front was analyzed across the northern Big
Country this morning, but this boundary has become more diffuse this
afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have initiated along
and north of this boundary, mainly affecting locations just outside
of the CWA. However, recent satellite imagery has shown an outflow
boundary moving south across Haskell and Throckmorton Counties,
which could lead to additional development of storms south of the
current complex. Farther west, additional storms are developing,
favoring the higher terrain west of Ft. Stockton. A few cells have
tried to get going north of Snyder, sparked from what appears to be
a gravity wave moving southeast across the South Plains. However,
this activity has really struggled to maintain any intensity. MLCAPE
values are on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg, but effective bulk shear
values are on the low side (<25 kts), suggesting generally
disorganized convection this afternoon.
Most of the area will remain dry over the next few hours (excluding
the northern Big Country), but thunderstorms to our west are
expected to grow upscale into a loosely organized MCS, moving east
into the area during the evening and early morning hours. The
general trend should be for this activity to weaken as it moves into
West Central TX. We could see locally heavy rainfall, but most areas
will likely see less than 1/4". Overnight temperatures will largely
be in the lower 70s, but a few areas could dip into the upper 60s in
and around thunderstorms.
Any lingering precipitation from overnight convection is not
expected to persist long on Sunday. Most of the area will likely
remain dry through midday, with a few showers and thunderstorms
developing in the moist, uncapped environment. Like today, the
threat for severe weather will remain low. Highs tomorrow will be in
the upper 80s and lower 90s.
LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)
This afternoon, an upper-level trough was located west of the
region. Over the next few days it will continue to slowly move our
way, weakening as it does so. Farther south and east, a tropical low
was moving across the Yucatan, and this low is forecast to move
towards the middle Texas coast by Tuesday.
Moisture will continue to remain plentiful, with precipitable water
values in the 1.5 to 2 inch range. This afternoon`s numerical model
runs also show an upper-level perturbation crossing the Panhandle
tomorrow night, which may help organize convection to our northwest.
If this was to pan out, a cluster of thunderstorms may grow upscale
into an MCS if their associated could pools consolidate, with an
east to southeast propagation expected (similar to last night and
what may occur tonight). Locations north and west of a line from Ft.
Lancaster, to Robert Lee, to Albany would stand the best chance of
seeing any rainfall from this potential system. The aforementioned
trough (what`s left of it) will cross West Central Texas during the
first half of the week, helping pull the tropical low north ahead of
it. With a continued moist and uncapped airmass in place, shower and
thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase, especially across the
eastern half of the forecast area. Drier air moving across West
Central Texas will put an end to any precipitation chances for
Friday and Saturday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 72 89 71 87 71 / 30 40 30 40 30
San Angelo 72 91 71 89 71 / 30 30 20 40 20
Junction 72 90 71 89 71 / 20 20 20 30 40
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1146 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
SHRA/TSRA INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND THE HRRR HAS INITIALIZED AND
VERIFIED BEST THIS EVENING AND WILL LEAN TOWARD THE HRRR WHICH HAS
CONVECTION PERSISTING AT THE HOUSTON TERMINALS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
15Z. THE SHRA/TSRA MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS
OVER 20 KTS SO ADDED A VRB15KT TO THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES.
THE AREA OF PRECIP WILL EXPAND WEST AND NORTH AFTER 15Z. PROBABLY
GET A BREAK NEAR THE COAST BY EARLY AFTN WITH BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION INLAND. A BREAK IN THE PRECIP AREAWIDE IS EXPECTED
DURING THE EVENING AS PW VALUES DROP BELOW 2.00 INCHES BUT
MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN AFTER 06Z WITH SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 09-12Z MONDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 953 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015/
UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS EVENING AS A POCKET OF HIGHER DEW POINT AIR /76+
DEGREES/ CONTINUES TO PUSH ONTO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. ANTICIPATE
GREATEST COVERAGE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TONIGHT TO
PERSIST PRIMARILY ALONG THE COAST WHERE GREATEST WIND
SPEED/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE RESIDES... WITH COVERAGE DECREASING AS
ONE MOVES NORTH AWAY FROM THE COAST. CURRENT FORECAST HANDLES
THIS WELL AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS.
0236Z /936 PM CDT/ KHGX VAD WIND PROFILER IS SHOWING 30 KNOT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 3000FT ABOVE THE SURFACE AND A
COMBINATION OF A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT /4 MB DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN VICTORIA AND BEAUMONT/ AND DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WAS
CREATING GUSTY WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THIS ACTIVITY OVER THE
MARINE ZONES. COULD SEE A FEW MORE 25 TO 30 KNOT GUSTS AS THIS
ACTIVITY MOVES INLAND... WITH POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL AS WELL.
MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO THE MARINE WAS TO DROP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE NEARSHORE /0-20 NM/ WATERS AND REPLACE WITH A SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT AS WINDS OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS HAD DECREASED BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. UPDATED
PRODUCTS OUT.
HUFFMAN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z LCH SOUNDING WAS A GOOD INDICATOR OF WHAT WAS POSSIBLE
WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS MORNING. LCH SOUNDING SHOWED 2.2 INCHES
OF PRECIP WATER WHICH HAD ALSO SPREAD INTO SE TX. GOES SOUNDER
DERIVED PW VALUES ARE VERY MUCH IN LINE WITH THE SOUNDING. WFO
HOUSTON HAD 5.26 INCHES OF RAIN FROM THE EVENT WITH OTHER AREAS
GETTING AS MUCH AS 7 INCHES. DICKINSON BAYOU WAS AS MUCH AS 5 FEET
OUT OF ITS BANKS. VERY LOCALIZED FLOODING IN GALVESTON COUNTY BUT
STILL AN INDICATION OF WHAT MIGHT BE POSSIBLE THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH THIS MOIST OF AN AIRMASS OVER THE AREA.
SUNDAY STILL LOOKS WET WITH THE NAM MOST ROBUST WITH QPF OVER THE
AREA. STILL LOOKING AT PW VALUES GREATER THAN 2 INCHES OVER THE
AREA FOR SUNDAY AND EXPECT MORE SCT SHOWERS/STORMS. RAINFALL RATES
IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AN HOUR WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION.
LLJ OF 20 KTS STILL SHOULD SUPPORT MOIST INFLOW INTO ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP. WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT WILL AGAIN SUPPORT GOOD
VENTING IN STORMS. ENVIRONMENT STILL VERY CAPABLE OF HEAVY
RAINFALL BUT THE GOOD THING IS THAT STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING. THE
PROBLEM IS IF STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA WHICH WAS THE
PROBLEM TODAY.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THIS IS WHERE THE FORECAST GETS
INTERESTING. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OVER THE YUCATAN WILL BE THE
MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS TIME FRAME. RIGHT NOW THERE IS AN UPPER
LOW AFFECTING THE DISTURBANCE WITH STRONGER SHEAR. UPPER LEVEL
WINDS LOOK TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SE US
AND W ATLANTIC SHOULD PROVIDE DECENT STEERING FLOW WITH A WEAKNESS
IN THE RIDGE OR TROUGHING OVER TX PROVIDING A NICE ALLEY FOR THIS
DISTURBANCE TO TRACK. GFS/NAM SHOW SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE REACHING MIDDLE TX COAST AROUND 12Z TUE WITH
THE ECMWF/CANADIAN ABOUT 12 HR SLOWER. SLOW MOTION OF
ECMWF/CANADIAN IS CONCERNING AS THIS WOULD ONLY INCREASE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WHICH WILL ALREADY BE VERY HIGH. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT LIKELY TOMORROW GOING INTO MONDAY. JUST TO
GIVE YOU AN IDEA OF THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL...GFS/NAM BOTH
SHOW PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND 2.6 INCHES OR MORE.
FLOODING RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY IMPACT FOR THE AREA FROM THIS
DISTURBANCE. ANY TYPE OF SURGE/WIND/TORNADO IMPACT WILL LARGELY
DEPEND ON HOW ORGANIZED THE SYSTEM BECOMES. MODELS SUGGEST
POSSIBLY A DEPRESSION FORMING OR LOW END TROPICAL STORM. WILL HAVE
TO WAIT/SEE WHAT HAPPENS AS NOT GOING TO TAKE ANY GUESSES AS TO
ITS EVENTUAL ORGANIZATION. WE WILL LEAVE THAT FORECAST ISSUE TO
NHC AND DERIVE IMPACTS FROM THEIR FORECASTS.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK THE SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE BEEN CAUGHT UP WITH
THE WESTERLIES BUT THINK ANY RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE WEEK. LIKELY
KEEP AT LEAST SOME MENTION OF RAIN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
TEMPS BACK IN THE LOW 90S FOR HIGH TEMPS.
39
MARINE... WINDS OVER THE BAYS/NEARSHORE WATERS HAVE DECREASED A
BIT THIS AFTN BUT ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. WILL
BE KEEPING THE SCA IN PLACE FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS AS THE LONGER
FETCH HELPS KEEP SEAS ELEVATED TONIGHT. THE ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
BE EXTENDED AS THIS OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND.
OF NOTE FOR FCST GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY
OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY AROUND THE YUCATAN.
CURRENT MODEL TRACKS/TRENDS POINTING IN THIS GENERAL DIRECTION DUR-
THE MON/TUES TIMEFRAME. BEAR WATCH IN PLACE. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 74 87 73 86 73 / 20 60 30 60 50
HOUSTON (IAH) 75 86 74 85 75 / 40 70 50 80 70
GALVESTON (GLS) 79 85 78 84 78 / 60 70 60 80 80
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
447 AM PDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT
IN GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OFF OF THE WEST COAST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 04:07 AM PDT SUNDAY...A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA HAS COMPRESSED THE
RIDGE OFF OF THE WEST COAST DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. AS A
RESULT...ZONAL FLOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER CALIFORNIA AND IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE START OF THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK.
MEANWHILE...ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE NEAR THE SURFACE
AND THE MARINE LAYER HAS DEEPENED TO AROUND 2000 FT. THIS PATTERN
WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD COASTAL CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG DURING THE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS THAT WILL BURN-OFF INLAND BY LATE
MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY COASTAL DRIZZLE AS WELL GIVEN THE
DEEPENING MARINE LAYER. WITH THIS AND THE PERSISTENT NORTH-
NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLEST NEAR THE
COAST THROUGH MIDWEEK WHILE INLAND AREAS WARM INTO THE 80S AND 90S
AWAY FROM THE COAST.
THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN ALOFT THROUGH THE WORKWEEK. PREVIOUS TRENDS HAVE
POINTED TOWARD A RIDGE BUILDING OFF OF THE WEST COAST BY LATE WEEK
THAT WOULD RESULT IN AN INLAND WARMING TREND. HOWEVER...THE LATEST
GFS/ECMWF NOW POINT TOWARD CONTINUED ZONAL FLOW WITH THE BUILDING
RIDGE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. FOR NOW...WILL FORECAST A SLIGHT
WARMING TREND LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER
WILL LIKELY PERSIST WITH CONDITIONS TYPICAL OF MID/LATE JUNE.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:46 AM PDT SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD STRATUS ALONG
THE COAST AND LOCALLY INLAND THIS MORNING. CIGS ARE GENERALLY IN
THE MVFR RANGE WITH A FEW POCKETS OF IFR. ROLLING BACK TO THE
COAST LATER THIS MORNING WITH VFR EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS
WILL RETURN TONIGHT.
VICINITY OF KSFO...TRICKY INSIDE SF BAY THIS MORNING AS PATCHY CIG
ARE THROUGH GG AND INTO OAK/HWD. GOING OUT ON A LIMB HERE...BUT
WILL FOLLOW THE HIRES HRRR AND KEEP THE CLOUD FREE DONUT AROUND
KSFO THERE.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...MVFR CIGS AROUND 1500 FEET THROUGH 17-18Z.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR. CLEARING BY 18Z.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 04:07 AM PDT SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL
PRODUCE STEEP WIND WAVE AND FRESH SWELL. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM NOON
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM NOON
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...SF BAY
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: MM
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1055 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE FORECAST.
41
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAST OF THE SHOWERS THAT WERE LINED UP ALONG THE ALABAMA/GEORGIA
BORDER HAVE DISSIPATED WITH JUST A LEFTOVER BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE LOCAL AREA AND DEVELOPING MID AND UPPER
LEVEL HIGH ON THE RAP ALLOWED FOR MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ON SATURDAY.
EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH 500MB HIGH BECOMING JUST A
TAF STRONGER AT 592DM. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND ALTHOUGH ATLANTA BARELY ESCAPED THE FIRST
90 DEGREE DAY OF THE YEAR YESTERDAY...IT SHOULD BE EASILY REACHED
TODAY. SHIED AWAY FROM BIAS CORRECTED AS WE ENTER A NEW WEATHER
PATTERN AND IT SEEMED CORRECTION WAS JUST TOO LOW FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST. INSTEAD WENT CLOSER TO THE RAW MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH
YIELDS VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL GEORGIA.
FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS...ONE COULD ARGUE FOR NIL POPS GIVEN STRENGTH
AND ORIENTATION OF STACKED MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH. FOR ME
THOUGH...JUST TOO MUCH MOISTURE AND PRECIPITABLE WATER TO KEEP
POPS COMPLETELY OUT. WILL WAIT AND SEE HOW TODAY UNFOLDS AND MAYBE
THEN WE CAN REMOVE FOR MONDAY. USUALLY IN PATTERNS LIKE THESE WE
HAVE PWATS RIGHT AT AND INCH OR LOWER WHEREAS WE ARE CLOSER TO 1.5
INCHES FOR THIS EVENT.
SIMILAR TEMP FORECAST FOR MONDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 90S AREA WIDE
AND HEAT INDICES IN THE LOWER 100S FOR SE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
DEESE
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM BUT THIS RIDGE ISNT STRONG ENOUGH THOUGH TO SHUT OFF
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. STILL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE
WITH PW VALUES EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES SO EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUE-WED. BY THURSDAY A SHORTWAVE IS
TRAVERSING THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND AS IT LIFTS THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY FRIDAY...THIS WILL PROVIDE MORE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA.
INSTABILITY INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. WITH MUCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 2500 J/KG ACROSS
NORTH GEORGIA...ANY FOCUS FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE
ACROSS THAT AREA...MAINLY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
MAIN STORY THOUGH REALLY CONTINUES TO BE THE HEAT. HEAT INDICES ARE
BETWEEN 100 AND 104 ACROSS EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA EACH DAY. TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY THE HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER
THAN THE REST OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER ITS SUCH A SUBTLE DIFFERENCE
THAT IT WONT BE NOTICEABLE. EVEN THOUGH WE ARE JUST BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE LONG TERM...ITS STILL GOING TO BE HOT AND
FOLKS NEED TO FOLLOW HEAT SAFETY RULES SUCH AS LIMITING TIME
OUTDOORS AND DRINKING PLENTY OF WATER.
11
CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 06-14
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 101 1921 74 1906 74 2010 52 1995
1981 1985
1958
KATL 96 1958 71 1955 78 1880 54 1968
1948
1914
KMCN 102 1963 73 1933 77 1958 53 1995
1921 1968
RECORDS FOR 06-15
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 99 1918 71 1965 76 1998 55 1933
KATL 96 1952 68 1884 76 1998 50 1917
1943
KMCN 100 2011 70 1955 78 1998 54 1995
2010
RECORDS FOR 06-16
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 100 1911 62 1961 74 1924 50 1917
KATL 98 1936 66 1927 74 1943 47 1917
1934
1920
KMCN 99 1964 69 1927 75 1964 50 1917
1920
1911
.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
SEEING SOME MVFR REDUCED VSBY AT SOME AREA METAR SITE BUT EXPECT
THESE TO BE TEMPORARY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE FOR THIS
TAF CYCLE ONE AGAIN. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT TO WARRANT
A FEW030 INITIALLY AT 16Z BUT QUICKLY RISING BASES TO AROUND 6K
FEET BY 18Z. WILL BE MAINTAINING LOW END TSRA CHANCES IN THE GRIDS
BUT CERTAINLY NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN ANY TAFS AT THIS
POINT.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.
DEESE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 96 72 98 73 / 20 20 20 10
ATLANTA 93 74 94 75 / 20 20 20 10
BLAIRSVILLE 89 66 90 67 / 20 20 20 20
CARTERSVILLE 94 70 95 71 / 20 20 20 10
COLUMBUS 96 73 97 74 / 20 20 20 10
GAINESVILLE 93 72 94 73 / 20 20 20 10
MACON 97 71 97 73 / 20 20 20 10
ROME 94 70 96 70 / 20 20 20 10
PEACHTREE CITY 94 70 94 71 / 20 20 20 10
VIDALIA 97 74 97 74 / 20 20 20 10
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...41
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
741 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAST OF THE SHOWERS THAT WERE LINED UP ALONG THE ALABAMA/GEORGIA
BORDER HAVE DISSIPATED WITH JUST A LEFTOVER BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE LOCAL AREA AND DEVELOPING MID AND UPPER
LEVEL HIGH ON THE RAP ALLOWED FOR MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ON SATURDAY.
EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH 500MB HIGH BECOMING JUST A
TAF STRONGER AT 592DM. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND ALTHOUGH ATLANTA BARELY ESCAPED THE FIRST
90 DEGREE DAY OF THE YEAR YESTERDAY...IT SHOULD BE EASILY REACHED
TODAY. SHIED AWAY FROM BIAS CORRECTED AS WE ENTER A NEW WEATHER
PATTERN AND IT SEEMED CORRECTION WAS JUST TOO LOW FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST. INSTEAD WENT CLOSER TO THE RAW MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH
YIELDS VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL GEORGIA.
FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS...ONE COULD ARGUE FOR NIL POPS GIVEN STRENGTH
AND ORIENTATION OF STACKED MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH. FOR ME
THOUGH...JUST TOO MUCH MOISTURE AND PRECIPITABLE WATER TO KEEP
POPS COMPLETELY OUT. WILL WAIT AND SEE HOW TODAY UNFOLDS AND MAYBE
THEN WE CAN REMOVE FOR MONDAY. USUALLY IN PATTERNS LIKE THESE WE
HAVE PWATS RIGHT AT AND INCH OR LOWER WHEREAS WE ARE CLOSER TO 1.5
INCHES FOR THIS EVENT.
SIMILAR TEMP FORECAST FOR MONDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 90S AREA WIDE
AND HEAT INDICES IN THE LOWER 100S FOR SE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
DEESE
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM BUT THIS RIDGE ISNT STRONG ENOUGH THOUGH TO SHUT OFF
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. STILL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE
WITH PW VALUES EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES SO EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUE-WED. BY THURSDAY A SHORTWAVE IS
TRAVERSING THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND AS IT LIFTS THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY FRIDAY...THIS WILL PROVIDE MORE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA.
INSTABILITY INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. WITH MUCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 2500 J/KG ACROSS
NORTH GEORGIA...ANY FOCUS FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE
ACROSS THAT AREA...MAINLY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
MAIN STORY THOUGH REALLY CONTINUES TO BE THE HEAT. HEAT INDICES ARE
BETWEEN 100 AND 104 ACROSS EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA EACH DAY. TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY THE HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER
THAN THE REST OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER ITS SUCH A SUBTLE DIFFERENCE
THAT IT WONT BE NOTICEABLE. EVEN THOUGH WE ARE JUST BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE LONG TERM...ITS STILL GOING TO BE HOT AND
FOLKS NEED TO FOLLOW HEAT SAFETY RULES SUCH AS LIMITING TIME
OUTDOORS AND DRINKING PLENTY OF WATER.
11
CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 06-14
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 101 1921 74 1906 74 2010 52 1995
1981 1985
1958
KATL 96 1958 71 1955 78 1880 54 1968
1948
1914
KMCN 102 1963 73 1933 77 1958 53 1995
1921 1968
RECORDS FOR 06-15
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 99 1918 71 1965 76 1998 55 1933
KATL 96 1952 68 1884 76 1998 50 1917
1943
KMCN 100 2011 70 1955 78 1998 54 1995
2010
RECORDS FOR 06-16
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 100 1911 62 1961 74 1924 50 1917
KATL 98 1936 66 1927 74 1943 47 1917
1934
1920
KMCN 99 1964 69 1927 75 1964 50 1917
1920
1911
.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
SEEING SOME MVFR REDUCED VSBY AT SOME AREA METAR SITE BUT EXPECT
THESE TO BE TEMPORARY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE FOR THIS
TAF CYCLE ONE AGAIN. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT TO WARRANT
A FEW030 INITIALLY AT 16Z BUT QUICKLY RISING BASES TO AROUND 6K
FEET BY 18Z. WILL BE MAINTAINING LOW END TSRA CHANCES IN THE GRIDS
BUT CERTAINLY NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN ANY TAFS AT THIS
POINT.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.
DEESE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 96 72 98 73 / 20 20 20 10
ATLANTA 93 74 94 75 / 20 20 20 10
BLAIRSVILLE 89 66 90 67 / 20 20 20 20
CARTERSVILLE 94 70 95 71 / 20 20 20 10
COLUMBUS 96 73 97 74 / 20 20 20 10
GAINESVILLE 93 72 94 73 / 20 20 20 10
MACON 97 71 97 73 / 20 20 20 10
ROME 94 70 96 70 / 20 20 20 10
PEACHTREE CITY 94 70 94 71 / 20 20 20 10
VIDALIA 97 74 97 74 / 20 20 20 10
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...DEESE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1046 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1046 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO MAKE MINOR CHANGES FOR TIMING TO THE
EXPECTED RAINFALL FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PRODUCING JUST ENOUGH LIFT FOR A CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE STL AREA LATE THIS
MORNING. THIS SHOULD MAINLY AFFECT CENTRAL IL BETWEEN A
JACKSONVILLE-LINCOLN-BLOOMINGTON LINE AND I-70 EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ARE EXPECTED AROUND THE IL RIVER
VALLEY AND SOUTH OF I-70 AS BRIEF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAUSE
POCKETS OF HIGHER INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SPOTTY CONVECTION.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ON THE 12Z SOUNDING AT ILX AND AT LOCATIONS
UPSTREAM INDICATED A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THUS, ANY CONVECTION WILL BE FAIRLY SLOW MOVING, RESULTING IN
ISOLATED AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. UNIMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES,
DESPITE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WEAK WIND SHEAR WILL ONLY RESULT
IN AN ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH PRECIP LOADING IN THE STRONGEST STORMS PRODUCING
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR A DOWNBURST THREAT.
CURRENTLY TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 75-80 RANGE IN CENTRAL IL AND
LOWER 80S IN SOUTHEAST IL. DESPITE THE OVERALL TREND TOWARD A
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS FOR HIGHS TO
REACH THE LOWER-MIDDLE 80S IN CENTRAL IL AND UPPER 80S IN THE
SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
07Z/2AM RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS
LARGELY LIFTED INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS...LEAVING BEHIND ONLY WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. AS HAS
BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS...A LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES WILL
BE OBSERVED THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING. ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY...A FEW PEEKS OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW SBCAPE VALUES TO
RISE INTO THE 1500 TO 2000J/KG RANGE LATER TODAY. DESPITE MODERATE
INSTABILITY...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST 0-6KM SHEAR WILL DECREASE
INTO THE 15 TO 20KT RANGE. THE WEAK SHEAR ALONG WITH THE ABSENCE OF
A STRONG FORCING MECHANISM WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD/ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER FROM OCCURRING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION...WITH THE GREATEST
CONCENTRATION NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. THANKS TO COPIOUS AMOUNTS
OF MOISTURE IN THE ENVIRONMENT...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM WEAKENING/DECAYING
STORMS.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND
DEEP-LAYER GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD
AROUND THE HIGH INTO THE MIDWEST. SEVERAL SHORT-WAVES TRACKING
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL ATTEMPT TO FLATTEN THE PREVAILING
RIDGE...BUT WILL BE UNSUCCESSFUL UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK.
THE FIRST WAVE CURRENTLY OVER ALBERTA/MONTANA WILL TRACK EASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS BY TUESDAY. AS THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT
APPROACH...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY LEAD TO A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GFS SHOWS
SBCAPES ONCE AGAIN REACHING THE 1500-2000J/KG RANGE WHILE 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR CLIMBS TO 30-35KT ACROSS THE N/NW CWA. WITH STRONGER FORCING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MORE FAVORABLE INSTABILITY/SHEAR PARAMETERS
DEVELOPING...THINK THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND HAIL WILL INCREASE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
LATEST DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC PLACES ALL OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE ACCORDINGLY.
FRONT WILL SAG INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS ON TUESDAY...THEN STALL AS IT
BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR.
ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE WILL TRACK OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY...FLATTENING THE SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE JUST
ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE PREVAILING BAROCLINIC ZONE TO SLIP SOUTHWARD.
WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS ON WEDNESDAY...THEN WILL DECREASE TO
CHANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. FURTHER OUT...MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A RELATIVELY DRY PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ONLY POSSIBLE FLY-IN-THE-OINTMENT IS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MAY TRACK NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF
LATER IN THE WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS FEATURE
BRINGING PRECIP TO THE SOUTHEAST CWA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS...AS DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK STILL
REMAIN IN QUESTION. ASIDE FROM THIS POSSIBLE LOW...OVERALL UPPER
FLOW PATTERN WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY...LEADING
TO WARM/MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES NEXT 24HRS EXCEPT FOR
CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED ENOUGH THAT ANY PCPN REMAINING ACROSS THE
AREA WILL BE SHOWERS. SO HAVE VCSH FOR ALL SITES THROUGH ABOUT
10Z. HRRR SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE WITH PCPN CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING SO THINK PCPN WILL END WITH CLOUDS
SCATTERING OUT FOR THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. LIKE
TODAY...THINK SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE AREA
SO HAVE VCTS AT ALL SITES TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHICH WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...BARNES
AVIATION...AUTEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
658 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
06Z SFC DATA SUGGESTS A WEAK FRONT/BOUNDARY FROM SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO NORTHEAST IOWA. A SECONDARY FRONT/BOUNDARY RAN FROM
CENTRAL INDIANA INTO SOUTHERN IOWA. DEW POINTS NORTH OF THE FIRST
BOUNDARY WERE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. SOUTH OF THE SECOND BOUNDARY
DEW POINTS WERE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
THE WEAK CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS/SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNRISE. A
SATURATED ATMOSPHERE COMBINED WITH WEAK LIFT FROM TWO SEPARATE
BOUNDARIES WILL ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PERSIST
THROUGH SUNRISE. ANY BRIEF CLEARING THAT OCCURS WILL ALLOW PATCHY
FOG TO DEVELOP.
AFTER SUNRISE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
AREA WITH A GRADUAL DECAY FROM MID TO LATE MORNING AND INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IF TRENDS FROM THE RAP ARE CORRECT...A
NEW ROUND OF SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THE I-80 CORRIDOR EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
ANY WEAK HEATING THAT OCCURS DURING THE DAY WILL ALLOW A NEW ROUND
OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
TONIGHT...INTERNAL SIGNALS FROM THE MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPING BETWEEN KOMA AND KSTJ. IF THIS
SCENARIO IS CORRECT...THIS STORM COMPLEX WOULD SLOWLY MOVE EAST OR
EAST NORTHEAST AND MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE CONTINUED
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE COMBINED WITH WEAK FLOW
ALOFT POINTS TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER
STORMS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
DRY WEATHER DAYS FOR THE ENTIRE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO BE HARD TO COME
BY...AS OUR EXTENDED FORECAST IS DOMINATED BY WEAK FLOW...AND OUR
CWA IS ON THE PERIPHERY OF A VERY MOIST AIRMASS. THIS TYPE OF
PATTERN DOES NOT REQUIRE STRONG FORCING FOR RAIN TO TAKE PLACE...AS
NOTED BY THE PAST 36 HOURS...WHERE THE RAINS JUST KEEP FALLING. IT
DOES APPEAR THAT AS A TROPICAL LOW MOVES UP INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY...WE MAY SEE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE
TO PROVIDE A DRY PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY IN THE NORTH. AS
HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW DAYS...THERE SHOULD BE A GENERAL
DIURNAL UPTICK IN COVERAGE OF STORMS...INCLUDING A PERIOD WHERE
STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINS WILL BE A THREAT. THESE MAY EVOLVE
INTO CLUSTERS...BEFORE DECAYING TO SHOWERS LIKE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.
THE BEST THREAT FOR RAINS DOES SEEM TO BE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA...WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE OVER IOWA AND
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. AS SAID...FORCING IS WEAK...BUT WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE AND NO CAP...WE SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
OF STORMS. SPC DOES HAVE OUR EASTERN CWA IN SLIGHT FOR DAY 2. I
BELIEVE THAT THREAT IS LARGELY DIURNAL...AND PROBABLY TIED MAINLY
HEAVY RAIN LOADED DOWNDRAFTS. WITHOUT A CAP...WE SHOULD READILY USE
UP OUR CAPE...RATHER THAN GETTING THINGS TOO UNSTABLE...THUS I THINK
THE THREAT IS LIMITED TO ISOLATED EVENTS. WHILE NOT A WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAIN EVENT...ISOLATED HEAVY RAINS TOTALS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ANY OF THESE COULD BE PROBLEMATIC FOR A
FLASH FLOOD THREAT GIVEN HOW VERY SATURATED OUR SOILS ARE AT THIS
POINT. HOWEVER...SINCE THE THREAT IS NOT CLEAR IN WHERE THE HEAVY
TOTALS WILL BE...IN SCATTERED CONVECTION...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
NOT BEING ISSUED YET.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...IS CONCERNING. THERE ARE SIGNS
OF A PREDECESSOR RAIN EVENT...OR PRE. A HEAVY RAIN EVENT...THAT
COULD OCCUR IN OUR CWA. THIS TYPE OF EVENT OCCURS WITH A LANDFALLING
TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE GULF...AND WESTERLIES IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
IN SHORT...WE WOULD HAVE SOME SUPPORT FOR TRAINING CONVECTION...AND
TROPICAL MOISTURE WELL DISPLACED FROM THE LANDFALLING SYSTEM. AT
THIS POINT...SIGNS ARE NOT CONFIDENT...BUT I FIND IT TROUBLING THAT
THE ECMWF PLACES AN ACTIVE STALLED SURFACE FRONT OVER IOWA TO
INDIANA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH A SHORT WAVE LOCATED IN
THE DAKOTAS. IN ANY CASE...THE GFS IS NOT SHOWING THIS...BUT IT
NEEDS TO BE WATCHED.
BEYOND THIS...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE
CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...HOPEFULLY RESULTING IN AT
LEAST ONE DRY DAY BEHIND IT. NEEDLESS TO SAY...WITH WEST SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...AND PLENTY OF WARMTH AND HUMIDITY AROUND...I HAVE NO
FAITH IN THAT PROSPECT. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN....WHICH EXTENDS
THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND...OFFERS A HIGH CHANCE FOR DAILY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS SAID IN MANY OF OUR PRODUCTS THE PAST
FEW DAYS...WE MAY BE MOVING INTO A PERIOD OF RATHER WIDESPREAD
FLOODING...BUT AS TO WHAT SIGNIFICANCE AND WHAT RIVERS...THAT IS YET
TO BE DETERMINED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
LIFR TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH 18Z/14
WITH ISOLATED SHRA. AFT 18Z/14 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
VCSH OR VCTS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES. IF A SHRA/TSRA AFFECTS A
TAF SITE...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MIGHT BE
POSSIBLE. AFT 06Z/15 ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS FORECAST TO
AFFECT EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS WITH POTENTIALLY
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
638 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE FORECAST TODAY WAS PRECIP CHANCES...OR LACK
THEREOF AND TEMPERATURES. TRENDED TOWARD A DRIER FORECAST FOR
TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN TO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE DRIER
FORECAST FOR TODAY AND UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE NAM/ECMWF.
A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER IOWA IS SLOW TO SLIDE
EAST-NORTHEAST TODAY AND SHOULD KEEP THE PRECIP ACTIVITY...IF ANY
DEVELOPS...CONFINED TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. NAM SHOWS A FEW
RIPPLES OF THETA-E ADVECTION AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TODAY OVER SOUTHERN IOWA. 14.06Z HRRR AND 14.03Z HOPWRF SHOW
ISOLATED POP-UP TS/SHOWERS BUT WEAK SHEAR AND MINIMAL INSTABILITY
WILL KEEP ANYTHING FROM BEING LONG-LIVED. STILL...THE AIRMASS HAS
NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS WRT TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGE IN THE 1.5-2.0 INCH
RANGE AND WARM LAYER CLOUD DEPTHS RANGE FROM 3800-4000 METERS IN
SOUTHERN IOWA. HENCE...IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP IT SHOULD HAVE SOME
DECENT RAINFALL RATES FOR SHORT STINT BUT NOT CONCERNED WITH FLASH
FLOODING DUE TO THE SHORT-LIVED NATURE OF STORMS AND LACK OF
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TODAY.
FOR TEMPERATURES...SINCE WENT DRY ACROSS THE WEST TO NORTH AND
LOWERED POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST...LEANED TOWARD RAISING MAX TEMPS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES. MOS GUIDANCE HAS CAUGHT ONTO THIS TREND AND
LEANED CLOSER THE METMOS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOUTHERN
IOWA LOOKS TO REMAIN THE COOLEST WITH THE MORE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIP CHANCES.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
IN THE EXTENDED...PATTERN TO EVOLVE VERY SLOWLY THIS WEEK...WITH
SOME WARMING TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE MUCH COOLER AIR
BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE REGION. LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AGAIN
TONIGHT...MODELS OF LITTLE ASSISTANCE LAST NIGHT THOUGH RAIN DID
FALL JUST TO THE EAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY. SFC ANALYSIS
THIS EVENING SHOWS THAT THE BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION YESTERDAY
LIFTED NORTHEAST AND BASICALLY WEAKENED. WHAT WAVE DID EXIST ALOFT
ALSO LIFTED MORE NORTHEAST THAN NORTH RESULTING IN THE H850
MOISTURE CHANNEL FOCUSED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE AREA...KEEPING
THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL IN EASTERN IOWA
TO WISCONSIN. NEXT CHALLENGE IS THE UPSTREAM WAVE PROGGED TO
AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LEE SIDE TROUGH ADVERTISED TO
DRIFT NORTHEAST ONCE AGAIN WITH ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM COOL FRONT
HEADING SOUTHEAST TOWARD IOWA MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE
TWO SYSTEMS /SHOULD/ RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS BUT LIKE LAST
NIGHT...SIMILAR WEAKENING OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE AND LIGHT
WINDS AT H850 MAY RESULT IN A MORE NARROW BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTH OF THE REGION...THOUGH COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD
INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS WEAK LOW LEVEL JET FORMS OVER MISSOURI.
FOR NOW HAVE CUT BACK ON CHANCES NORTH WITH FOCUS CLOSER TO THE
SOUTH THIRD OF IOWA TOWARD THE MISSOURI BORDER LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY. AS THE COOL FRONT APPROACHES NORTHWEST IOWA LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...LIKELY THAT ONLY SHOWERS AND ISO
THUNDER WILL OCCUR NORTH UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON... WHEN ACROSS THE
SOUTH THE BOUNDARY BECOMES MORE ACTIVE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER RETURNS. AT THIS
TIME AM NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN TERMS OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL
IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS SO WILL NOT NEED HEADLINES. THOUGH STORMS MAY
BE SLOW MOVERS...LIKELY THAT WIND FIELDS WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH TO
KEEP STORMS FROM ORGANIZING.
PER PREVIOUS FORECASTS...TUESDAY LOOKS COOLER AND LESS HUMID
OVERALL WITH ABOUT A DAY OF MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS BEFORE ANOTHER
WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ONCE THE HIGH RETREATS EAST TUESDAY
NIGHT...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL INDUCE A LEE SIDE LOW
AND ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY. FINALLY
TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD A MORE SIGNIFICANT NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM SHOULD ARRIVE LATE IN THE WEEK. TIMING IS STILL IN
QUESTION BUT THE MODELS TODAY ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SOME MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION...POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S AGAIN BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A LOT DEPENDS ON CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS AND IF A H700 CAP INDEED FORMS. WITH A BAND OF MUCH STRONGER
WESTERLIES INTERACTING WITH THE VERY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS BY
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THE STAGE SHOULD BE SET FOR AN ACTIVE PERIOD
OF SUMMER STORMS BEFORE MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES ON SUNDAY. SOME
TIMING ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS RANGE...BUT THE SIGNAL FOR MORE
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS BECOMING MORE
APPARENT.
&&
.AVIATION...14/12Z
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
IFR TO MVFR FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 14Z AT THE LATEST THIS MORNING
WITH OTM RECEIVING THE THICKEST FOG ATTM AND SHOULD BE THE LONGEST
TO IMPROVE TO VFR. HAVE VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 14Z FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH REALLY NO CONFIDENCE IN MENTIONING ANY
FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES THIS EVENING. DO HAVE MENTION OF RAIN/TS
AT DSM AND OTM AS THEY HAVE THE BEST SHOT OF ANY PRECIP TONIGHT.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...PODRAZIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
558 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2015
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 233 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
08Z water vapor imagery continues to show a disorganized area of mid
level low pressure from the southern Rockies through the central
plains. Meanwhile the mean westerlies remain well north across the
northern Rockies/Plains and southern Canada. At the surface,
observations show a warm and moist airmass remains over the region
with weak surface low pressure in the lee of the Rockies while a
surface ridge remains over the southeastern U.S.
For today and tonight, the forecast is generally a persistence
forecast as little has changed in the environment. A moist airmass
with modest instability and weak environmental shear is progged to
persist. Additionally there is little if any inhibition to a surface
parcel. However forcing for precip is weak. Aside from a weak vort
max potentially moving through, there is not a lot of forcing. And
lift for a surface parcel is no better due to the lack of a surface
front. Even isentropic surfaces show disorganized upglide at best
given a weak low level jet progged by the models through tonight.
With this in mind, think showers and thunderstorms are likely to
remain scattered through the day today. Therefore have POPs in the
30 to 50 percent range. For tonight, models suggest a weakening
front may move into north central KS late tonight. Also a mid level
shear axis or deformation zone is progged to move into northeast KS.
This could contribute to a more focused area for showers and
thunderstorms. With this in mind have continued with some likely
POPs overnight. For highs today, models have slightly warmer temps
at 925 MB and 850 MB. Because of this have highs a degree or two
warmer than yesterday`s expecting most areas to warm into the lower
80s. Lows tonight should be pretty similar to the past couple
mornings with readings in the mid 60s to around 70.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 233 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
Overall mid level flow pattern in the extended remains unsettled
with more windows of dry conditions possible.
Main jetstream across the northern CONUS will help to lift the
remaining pieces of the cutoff low out of the region Monday and
Tuesday. Latest guidance continues to be persistent in lifting the
first weak PV anomaly northeastward during the afternoon, pushing
another frontal boundary out of Nebraska into northeast Kansas.
While scattered showers may be possible during the early afternoon
over north central KS, it may take until late afternoon or early
evening when the low levels can become unstable again where optimal
low level forcing resides over the boundary. Upper low axis differs
slightly by 00Z Tuesday so there is some uncertainty in exact
placement of heaviest rainfall. Overall, guidance has progged a
modest band of a half to one inch QPF developing south of Interstate
70 Monday into Tuesday afternoon. Placed likely precip chances in
this area, expecting the activity to shift east of the CWA Tuesday afternoon.
Mostly cloudy skies stick around during the afternoon, keeping highs
slightly below normal values around 80 degrees.
As the cutoff finally exits the area, mid level winds veer from the
west, carrying a series of shortwave troughs through the region
Wednesday through Saturday. While ample moisture remains over the
region on Wednesday afternoon, there is no definite boundary to focus
precipitation with weak forcing aloft so have kept low end chances
for precip. While still differing on timing, the GFS and ECMWF are
persistent in developing showers and thunderstorms over a frontal
boundary late Wednesday evening into Thursday. Areas near the Nebraska
border currently have the best precip chances. Friday may end up
being mostly dry as a more organized upper wave develops across the
Inter-Mountain west. This system is progged to bring more rain
chances to the region for Saturday. Dewpoints during the week will
remain near 70 degrees while temps warm up, resulting in hot and
muggy afternoons. Highs climb into the upper 80s each day while
overnight lows may only fall to near 70 degrees.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 558 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
With convection expected to be scattered through the day, have
little confidence in timing TS for the terminals. Rather than
broad brush with VCTS, have tried to use TEMPO groups to highlight
times when storms may be slightly more probable. Using a linear
extrapolation on the cluster coming out of the ICT area, storms
may impact the TOP and FOE terminals around 15Z and remain just
east of MHK. The RAP and HRRR suggest a vort max lifting north
from the TX panhandle causing increased TS over central KS, possibly
impacting MHK around 21Z and remaining just west of TOP and FOE.
This is simply a best guess and adjustments will likely be needed.
Have kept VFR CIGS and VSBY prevailing through the day. If
convection moves in, there may easily be MVFR VSBY if not IFR from
moderate or heavy rainfall.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
418 AM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE THE CHANCE OF RAINFALL. SATELLITE
SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKY PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC INTO
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. IN GENERAL A BROAD TROUGH RESIDES OVER THE
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN PORTION. MANY SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN THIS FLOW. PERSISTENT
CIRCULATION/BROAD WEAK TROUGH CONTINUES TO RESIDE TO OUR SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST. MID LEVELS LOOK TO BE RATHER DRY OVER OUR AREA BUT THAT
MOISTURE IS NOT TOO FAR AWAY. GULF MOISTURE IS POURING INTO THE AREA.
AT JET LEVEL...THE GFS FOLLOWED BY THE CANADIAN IS DOING BETTER ON
THE JET POSITION IN OUR REGION. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS...CANADIAN
AND NAM LOOKED TO BE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE REST. THE
ECMWF AND THE SREF DID THE BEST ON THE SURFACE PATTERN. ALL THE
MODELS INITIALED WELL ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS BRINGING A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THIS MORNING. THIS ADVECTION IS SPREADING STRATUS AND FOG NORTH INTO
THE AREA UNDERNEATH A THICK BLANKET OF MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER. AT THIS TIME THE EVENING ADJUSTMENT FOR THE FOG LOOKS GOOD
AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY MODELS HAVE A WEAK RIGHT REAR QUADRANT
OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE AREA. THIS AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH HAVE CAUSED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS JUST TO THE EAST
AND SOUTHEAST OF AREA. BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND MODEL DATA THIS
CONVECTION LOOKS TO STAY EAST OF OUR AREA SO WILL KEEP THE DRY
MORNING FORECAST THE DAY SHIFT PUT IN THERE.
MODELS DIFFERING A LOT WITH HOW THEY ARE HANDLING THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY. IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME JET LIFT WILL BE
AROUND THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT.
YESTERDAY THE NAM WAS THE ONLY MODEL THAT DEVELOPED A MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION AND BROUGHT IT NORTH. WELL TODAY ALL THE OUTPUT IS DOING
THE SAME THING. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY THE GFS HAS BEEN
BETTER WITH THE MID LEVEL FEATURES AND IS MATCHING UP REALLY WELL
WITH SATELLITE.
THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THIS CIRCULATION BRUSHES THE SOUTHEAST
THIRD OF AREA BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE
AFFECTING THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA IS COMING IN A LITTLE
SLOWER AS A SURFACE CONVERGENCE AREA SETS UP OVER MY EASTERN
COLORADO COUNTIES. SO AS YESTERDAY HAVE THE POPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
AND NORTH FRINGES BUT HAVE THEM ONLY IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY
FOR NOW.
MODELS MOVE THE JET FURTHER EAST AND NORTH AND MOST OF THE DATA
WOULD SUPPORT THE JET BEING NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER SOME WEAK JET LIFT STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE.
TROUGH AFFECTING THE SOUTHEAST STEADILY MOVES EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS THE WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH AS WELL. COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA IN THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT. PREVIOUS
POP FORECAST HAD THIS HANDLED WELL AND MADE NO ADJUSTMENTS TO IT.
CLOUD COVER WILL DETERMINE HOW WARM IT GETS. COULD HAVE MULTIPLE
LAYERS OF CLOUD COVER. AT THIS TIME...THE LOWER LEVEL CLOUD COVER
LOOKS LIKE IT CLEARS BY LATE MORNING. MADE THE TEMPERATURES WARMER
CLOUD TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK RIGHT REAR QUADRANT REMAIN NEAR OR OVER
THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. COLD FRONT MAKES
IT THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY VERY EARLY IN DAY. IN REGARDS
TO PRECIPITATION AM NOT VERY IMPRESSED WITH THE CHANCES THE MODEL
OUTPUT IS SHOWING. AFTER A SLIGHT CHANCE EARLY IN THE MORNING
FROM THE EXITING EASTERN TROUGH...MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND
THAT SYSTEM MEANING LITTLE TO NO LIFT. FRONT IS WELL SOUTH OF AREA
WITH ONLY THE LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE PROVIDING SOME LIFT.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING THAT A LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL BE
PLACE AND WILL MORE THAN LIKELY SQUASH CONVECTION FOR MOST OF THE
REST OF THE DAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST LATE IN
THE DAY. THINKING IS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS IN MY
FAR WEST. HOWEVER...TO BETTER MATCH UP WITH MY NEIGHBORS AND TO
ACCOUNT FOR ANOTHER SMALL WAVE THAT MAY COME THROUGH...INSERTED A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON. AFTER
MORNING STRATUS...EXPECT CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE. COOLED TEMPERATURES
FROM WHAT I EXPECT TODAY BUT AGAIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE DETERMINED
BY HOW LONG THE CLOUDS STICK AROUND.
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT GETS CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA
LATE IN THE NIGHT. THE BEST MID LEVEL LIFT OF THE PERIOD MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. BETWEEN THAT AND THE JET
LIFT...THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FURTHER SOUTH.
BOUNDARY RELATIVE HUMIDITY INCREASES LATE IN THE NIGHT AND EXPECT
STRATUS AND SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...LIFT FROM OVERNIGHT SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO KEEP
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. PATCHY FOG SHOULD ALSO BURN OFF BY LATE MORNING.
THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT GETS CLOSE TO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A DEFINITE BUT WEAK RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF THE JET AFFECTING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA
DURING THE NIGHT. THAT AND A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL AFFECT THE AREA
FROM THE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT THIS THE NORTH WILL
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA HAVING
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE WARMER AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ACROSS
THE AREA AS A LEE TROUGH DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE WESTERLY CROSS
MOUNTAIN FLOW. WINDS MAY INCREASE INTO THE BREEZY CATEGORY IN THE
WESTERN HALF.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE US IS STAYING VERY CONSISTENT WITH ZONAL
FLOW IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE US AND TWO STRONG RIDGES IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST...ALONG WITH A TROUGH BETWEEN THE TWO HIGHS.
WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY ARE STILL SHOWING TO BE INFLUENCED BY THE
WEAK TROUGH OVER OUR CWA. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE THURSDAY 00Z TO 12Z. SURFACE CAPES WILL BE AROUND 2000 J/KG IN THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA AND WILL STAY AROUND 2000 J/KG MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE CWA. THERE ARE ALSO A FEW 700 MB SHORTWAVES THAT PASS OVER
OUR CWA DURING THIS TIME...WHICH WILL DEFINITELY HELP WITH LIFT IN THE
ABSENCE OF STRONG SHEAR. THURSDAY AT 00Z IS THE ONLY PERIOD DURING THIS
TIME THAT SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR REACHING AROUND 30 KTS. ANOTHER FEATURE
THAT MAY INCREASE MOISTURE...THURSDAY 00Z/06Z...IS THE TS/TD THAT BOTH
THE GFS AND EUROPEAN HAVE MOVING INTO TEXAS LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. AS OF NOW THE EUROPEAN IS SHOWING THIS FEATURE FEEDING
MOISTURE INTO OUR CWA BUT THE GFS PUSHES IT EAST OF OUR CWA. SOMETHING
TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
IT IS NOT UNTIL MID DAY ON THURSDAY THAT THE TROUGH HAS MOVED ENOUGH TO
THE EAST TO DECREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES...AS WELL AS A RIDGE
BUILDING OVER OUR CWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE...REACHING THE MID 90S BY FRIDAY. SATURDAY IS SHOWING A SLIGHT
DECEASE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH A CLOSED LOW PUSHING INTO THE FAR
NORTHWEST US.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM MDT SAT JUN 13 2015
PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN THIS TAF RUN REMAINS THE CHANCE FOR
FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT. MOST GUIDANCE IS NOT GRASPING THE CURRENT
TRENDS IN DEWPOINTS/MOISTURE CONTENT AND FEEL THEY ARE DOWNPLAYING
THE FOG/STRATUS CHANCES TOO MUCH. THERE IS SOME THICK CIRRUS
COMING IN WHICH MAY REDUCE THE REQUIRED RADIATIONAL COOLING.
HOWEVER...LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE FOG/STRATUS REMAIN LIKELY
SO RELIED ON A RAP/NAM COMBINATION. ANY FOG/STRATUS RAPIDLY
DISSIPATES BY MID-MORNING. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TOMORROW BUT STILL DO NOT
ANTICIPATE THEM REACHING THE TAF SITES.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...RRH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1045 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
FORECAST APPEARS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH STRONG RIDGING ALOFT AND MID
LEVEL WARMING LIKELY KEEPING A LID ON CONVECTION TODAY FOR MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA/WEST VIRGINIA BORDERS AND PERHAPS OVER
OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES...FURTHER AWAY FROM THE CORE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE...WHERE AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL FEATURE HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY
IN OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND ALONG THE VIRGINIA AND WEST
VIRGINIA BORDERS...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND 90 BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY FALLING TO AROUND 70 ACROSS THE AREA. THE
NAM12 AND HRRR MODELS ARE BOTH IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY TODAY AND
MONDAY...SO THESE TWO MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE USED TO CREATE THE
FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
WHILE THE MODELS ALL LINE UP WITH EACH OTHER ALOFT FOR THE
EXTENDED...THIS AGREEMENT IS A BIT OF A DEPARTURE WITH RESPECT TO
THEIR CONSENSUS OF 24 HOURS AGO...LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE. THEY
NOW ALL SHOW THE RIDGING A BIT MORE SUBSTANTIAL THROUGH THE DEEP
SOUTH WITH THE TRAIN OF WEAK ENERGY WAVES STAYING FURTHER NORTH THAN
LAST NIGHT/S VERSION. THE TROUGH THAT LOOKED TO PASS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY IS NOW A BIT SLOWER AND WILL JUST
BE GETTING TO OUR AREA ON FRIDAY WITH THE GFS THE SLOWEST SOLUTION.
ACCORDINGLY...THE MODELS NOW SUGGEST THAT THIS WAVE WILL NOT BE
MOVING OUT UNTIL THE UPCOMING SATURDAY WITH RISING HEIGHTS TO FOLLOW
INTO THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEKEND. THIS LATEST MODEL SCENARIO
WOULD MAKE THE STORMS MORE OF AN UNCERTAINTY...BASICALLY WAITING FOR
OUTFLOW FROM ONES TRACKING TO THE NORTH TO TAP INTO OUR WARM AND
HUMID AIR FOR ANY BETTER CONVECTIVE CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WILL AGAIN FAVOR A MODEL BLENDED SOLUTION FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION
OF THE FORECAST...WITH A HEAVY DIURNAL COMPONENT TO THE POPS AND SKY
COVER.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL SEE A WARM AND HUMID SETUP FOR EAST KENTUCKY
THROUGH THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED. THE BETTER STORM CHANCES WILL BE
WEST AND NORTH OF THE CWA...ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. THE BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL BE SEEN
FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A LOW
PRESSURE AREA AND A POOL OF MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS. LOWER POPS
WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE AREA ON SATURDAY OWING TO RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AT THE SFC. THE WARMEST DAYS OF
THE EXTENDED WILL BE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS FROM 85 TO
90 DEGREES AND THE HEAT INDEX A CATEGORY HIGHER EACH AFTERNOON. MORE
CLOUDS AND CONVECTION SHOULD SERVE TO CHECK THE WARMTH ON
FRIDAY...BUT HIGHS SHOULD BE UP A NOTCH SATURDAY AS SOME DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE MORE TROPICAL AIR MASS.
THE CR GRID BLEND CAME IN REASONABLY WELL WITH THE BULK OF ANY
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE POPS AND SKY TO ACCOUNT FOR A STRONG DIURNAL
CYCLE WITH THESE GRIDS THROUGH THURSDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DID
TOUCH THE LOWS A BIT EACH NIGHT TO REPRESENT ONLY MINOR TERRAIN
EFFECTS GIVEN THE FAIRLY HIGH MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 712 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
ASIDE FROM SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN OUR NORTHERN AND
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
RULE THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ON TAP FOR TOMORROW AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ABE
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
712 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL FEATURE HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY
IN OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND ALONG THE VIRGINIA AND WEST
VIRGINIA BORDERS...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND 90 BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY FALLING TO AROUND 70 ACROSS THE AREA. THE
NAM12 AND HRRR MODELS ARE BOTH IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY TODAY AND
MONDAY...SO THESE TWO MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE USED TO CREATE THE
FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
WHILE THE MODELS ALL LINE UP WITH EACH OTHER ALOFT FOR THE
EXTENDED...THIS AGREEMENT IS A BIT OF A DEPARTURE WITH RESPECT TO
THEIR CONSENSUS OF 24 HOURS AGO...LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE. THEY
NOW ALL SHOW THE RIDGING A BIT MORE SUBSTANTIAL THROUGH THE DEEP
SOUTH WITH THE TRAIN OF WEAK ENERGY WAVES STAYING FURTHER NORTH THAN
LAST NIGHT/S VERSION. THE TROUGH THAT LOOKED TO PASS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY IS NOW A BIT SLOWER AND WILL JUST
BE GETTING TO OUR AREA ON FRIDAY WITH THE GFS THE SLOWEST SOLUTION.
ACCORDINGLY...THE MODELS NOW SUGGEST THAT THIS WAVE WILL NOT BE
MOVING OUT UNTIL THE UPCOMING SATURDAY WITH RISING HEIGHTS TO FOLLOW
INTO THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEKEND. THIS LATEST MODEL SCENARIO
WOULD MAKE THE STORMS MORE OF AN UNCERTAINTY...BASICALLY WAITING FOR
OUTFLOW FROM ONES TRACKING TO THE NORTH TO TAP INTO OUR WARM AND
HUMID AIR FOR ANY BETTER CONVECTIVE CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WILL AGAIN FAVOR A MODEL BLENDED SOLUTION FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION
OF THE FORECAST...WITH A HEAVY DIURNAL COMPONENT TO THE POPS AND SKY
COVER.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL SEE A WARM AND HUMID SETUP FOR EAST KENTUCKY
THROUGH THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED. THE BETTER STORM CHANCES WILL BE
WEST AND NORTH OF THE CWA...ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. THE BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL BE SEEN
FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A LOW
PRESSURE AREA AND A POOL OF MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS. LOWER POPS
WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE AREA ON SATURDAY OWING TO RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AT THE SFC. THE WARMEST DAYS OF
THE EXTENDED WILL BE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS FROM 85 TO
90 DEGREES AND THE HEAT INDEX A CATEGORY HIGHER EACH AFTERNOON. MORE
CLOUDS AND CONVECTION SHOULD SERVE TO CHECK THE WARMTH ON
FRIDAY...BUT HIGHS SHOULD BE UP A NOTCH SATURDAY AS SOME DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE MORE TROPICAL AIR MASS.
THE CR GRID BLEND CAME IN REASONABLY WELL WITH THE BULK OF ANY
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE POPS AND SKY TO ACCOUNT FOR A STRONG DIURNAL
CYCLE WITH THESE GRIDS THROUGH THURSDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DID
TOUCH THE LOWS A BIT EACH NIGHT TO REPRESENT ONLY MINOR TERRAIN
EFFECTS GIVEN THE FAIRLY HIGH MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 712 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
ASIDE FROM SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN OUR NORTHERN AND
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
RULE THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ON TAP FOR TOMORROW AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
919 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM QUEBEC TODAY. THIS HIGH WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
915 AM UPDATE...NO CHANGES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A SUNNY AND
PLEASANT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOW HUMIDITY. CIRRUS
TOWARDS BANGOR AND THE DOWN EAST REGION CONTINUES TO THIN OUT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... HIGH PRES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY.
06Z IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE
W/SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ESE FROM CANADA. THE 00Z NAM AND THE
LATEST HRRR 3KM HANDLED THIS HIGH CLOUDINESS WELL. THIS HIGH
CLOUDINESS APPEARED TO BE IN ASSOCIATION W/SHEARED VORTICITY
MOVING SE FROM CANADA. THE NAM AND HRRR 3KM MODEL SHOW SOME OF
THIS CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS TODAY
W/THE MAJORITY OF IT BEING THIN. FURTHER NORTH, MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY W/A NORTHERLY WIND IN
PLACE IN LLVLS. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
LOWER 70S NORTH AND WEST W/MID TO UPPER 70S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.
A SEA BREEZE LOOKS LIKE IT COULD SET UP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
KEEPING THING COOLER SAY ALONG THE BAR HARBOR TO MACHIAS. 00Z UA
SHOWED A 30 KT JET MAX RESIDING AT 850MBS IN QUEBEC. THIS JET MAX
IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. MODEL SOUNDING SHOW
INVERTED V IN THE BLYR W/SOME OF THIS WIND TO MIX DOWN TO THE SFC.
THEREFORE, INCREASED THE GUSTS BY 5 MPH TODAY PLAYING FOR GUSTS TO
HIT 20 KT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.
FOR TONIGHT, HIGH PRES WILL MOVE TO THE E W/THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION. SOUNDING DATA INDICATED DRY THROUGH THE COLUMN
W/CLEAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT W/THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO
THE REGION. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DROP OFF LESS THAN 7 MPH
W/TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK OVERNIGHT. READINGS BY DAYBREAK ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH AND WEST W/50-55
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE MAINE COAST DURING MONDAY WITH
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE AROUND 70
ACROSS THE NORTH AND ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S DOWN EAST WITH
AN ONSHORE FLOW.
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST MONDAY NIGHT WHILE AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL
TO THE WEST ACROSS QUEBEC. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE
AND FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS DOWN EAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH TO THE EAST AND THE LOW OFF TO THE
SOUTH. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL START
TO MOVE IN DURING TUESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ANY
TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE THE BETTER DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED. HIGHS
ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S DOWN EAST TO THE UPPER 60S
TO NEAR 70 NORTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ENDING BY MIDNIGHT.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
WITH DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH
WILL MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH DURING
THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
50S.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: 615 AM UPDATE...A 3500 FT DECK(STRATOCUMULUS) HAS MADE
ITS WAY S INTO NORTHERN AREAS W/CIRRUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS.
AMENDED THE NORTHERN TERMINALS TO PLAY FOR THE STRATOCUMULUS DECK.
OTHERWISE...VFR RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT. A LIGHT CHOP EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM: VFR MONDAY. IFR/LIFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY ESPECIALLY KBGR/KBHB WITH LOW
CLOUDS/AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
EAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. VFR TO START THURSDAY THEN
POSSIBLY MVFR AT TIMES IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES THIS TERM. SUSTAINED WINDS TO AVERAGE 10
KTS W/A FEW GUSTS OF 20 KTS EARLY TODAY FOR THE OUTER ZONE FROM
SCHOODIC POINT TO STONINGTON. SEAS OF 2-3 AWAY FROM THE INTRA-
COASTAL ZONE.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. VISIBILITIES WILL DECREASE TO AROUND A
MILE OR LESS AT TIMES IN AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE MONDAY NIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT/MCW
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/MCW/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/MCW/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
617 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM QUEBEC TODAY. THIS HIGH WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
615 AM UPDATE...UPDATED THE SKY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING TO REFLECT
SOME CLOUDS AS THE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLOUD
SHIELD DISCUSSED EARLIER HAS EDGED FURTHER N ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS. THE THICKEST CLOUDS ARE ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND
CENTRAL AREAS. A BAND OF CLOUDS(3500 FOOT DECK) HAS MADE ITS WAY
INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS MORNING. STILL EXPECTING SKIES TO
BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... HIGH PRES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY.
06Z IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE
W/SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ESE FROM CANADA. THE 00Z NAM AND THE
LATEST HRRR 3KM HANDLED THIS HIGH CLOUDINESS WELL. THIS HIGH
CLOUDINESS APPEARED TO BE IN ASSOCIATION W/SHEARED VORTICITY
MOVING SE FROM CANADA. THE NAM AND HRRR 3KM MODEL SHOW SOME OF
THIS CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS TODAY
W/THE MAJORITY OF IT BEING THIN. FURTHER NORTH, MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY W/A NORTHERLY WIND IN
PLACE IN LLVLS. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
LOWER 70S NORTH AND WEST W/MID TO UPPER 70S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.
A SEA BREEZE LOOKS LIKE IT COULD SET UP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
KEEPING THING COOLER SAY ALONG THE BAR HARBOR TO MACHIAS. 00Z UA
SHOWED A 30 KT JET MAX RESIDING AT 850MBS IN QUEBEC. THIS JET MAX
IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. MODEL SOUNDING SHOW
INVERTED V IN THE BLYR W/SOME OF THIS WIND TO MIX DOWN TO THE SFC.
THEREFORE, INCREASED THE GUSTS BY 5 MPH TODAY PLAYING FOR GUSTS TO
HIT 20 KT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.
FOR TONIGHT, HIGH PRES WILL MOVE TO THE E W/THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION. SOUNDING DATA INDICATED DRY THROUGH THE COLUMN
W/CLEAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT W/THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO
THE REGION. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DROP OFF LESS THAN 7 MPH
W/TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK OVERNIGHT. READINGS BY DAYBREAK ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH AND WEST W/50-55
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE MAINE COAST DURING MONDAY WITH
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE AROUND 70
ACROSS THE NORTH AND ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S DOWN EAST WITH
AN ONSHORE FLOW.
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST MONDAY NIGHT WHILE AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL
TO THE WEST ACROSS QUEBEC. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE
AND FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS DOWN EAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH TO THE EAST AND THE LOW OFF TO THE
SOUTH. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL START
TO MOVE IN DURING TUESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ANY
TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE THE BETTER DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED. HIGHS
ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S DOWN EAST TO THE UPPER 60S
TO NEAR 70 NORTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ENDING BY MIDNIGHT.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
WITH DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH
WILL MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH DURING
THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
50S.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: 615 AM UPDATE...A 3500 FT DECK(STRATOCUMULUS) HAS MADE
ITS WAY S INTO NORTHERN AREAS W/CIRRUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS.
AMENDED THE NORTHERN TERMINALS TO PLAY FOR THE STRAOCUMULUS DECK.
OTHERWISE...VFR RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT. A LIGHT CHOP EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM: VFR MONDAY. IFR/LIFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY ESPECIALLY KBGR/KBHB WITH LOW
CLOUDS/AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
EAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. VFR TO START THURSDAY THEN
POSSIBLY MVFR AT TIMES IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES THIS TERM. SUSTAINED WINDS TO AVERAGE 10
KTS W/A FEW GUSTS OF 20 KTS EARLY TODAY FOR THE OUTER ZONE FROM
SCHOODIC POINT TO STONINGTON. SEAS OF 2-3 AWAY FROM THE INTRA-
COASTAL ZONE.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. VISIBILITIES WILL DECREASE TO AROUND A
MILE OR LESS AT TIMES IN AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE MONDAY NIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1041 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH AND WILL STALL
OUT NEAR NEAR THE POTOMAC RIVER TODAY BEFORE MOVING TO THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY TO THE
NORTH. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RETURN NORTH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUIET MORNING WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT...ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF
WARMING. ON GOING CONVECTION OVER WV SLOWLY WORKING EAST...WHICH
SHOULD MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS BY MIDDAY. THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF
THE AREA REMAINS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR WX...WITH THE BEST CHC
FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT LOOKING TO BE LATE THIS AFTN THRU THE
EVENING (22-03Z). LATEST HRRR RUNS DEVELOPS SCT ACTIVITY DURING
THE AFTN...AS A RESULT OF DECENT INSTABILITY...THEN DEVELOPS A
MORE LINEAR FEATURE THIS EVENING CLOSE TO 00Z WHEN THE SHORTWAVE
PROGRESSES THRU. HAVE CAPPED LIKELY POPS MAINLY NEAR THE MASON-
DIXON LINE WITH SCT WORDING EVERYWHERE ELSE TO THE SOUTH. SHEAR
REMAINS ON THE WEAKER SIDE BUT THINKING WITH CAPE VALUES BETWEEN
1000-1500 J/KG COULD DEFINITELY STILL SEE STRONGER TO POSSIBLY SVR
CELLS OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS WITH WIND AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL
BEING THE MAIN THREATS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE TNGT PD BUT ARE XPCTD
TO WEAKEN BY MID EVE...THEN ANOTHER SULTRY NGT W/ PSBL ISOLD
TSTMS. LOWS AGN A70 XCPT M70S IN THE CITIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. MORE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.
IN FACT...IT WILL LIKELY TURN OUT EVEN HOTTER DURING THESE DAYS DUE
TO MORE OF A DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE THAT
EXTENDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 90S
ACROSS MOST AREAS EACH DAY.
THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY. ALSO...UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BE PASSING THROUGH
IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. TYPICALLY...IT IS DIFFICULT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH A SURFACE WESTERLY FLOW...BUT GIVEN
THE SHORTWAVES ALOFT ALONG WITH THE MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. PERHAPS
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA DUE TO LOWER HEIGHTS AND LESS OF A DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW. SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP...GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE INSTABILITY
AND UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ALOFT.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT. CONVECTION SHOULD STILL DISSIPATE IN COVERAGE DUE TO THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND IT WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID.
THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED OUT NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE LITTLE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY...SO WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THERE MAY
BE MORE COVERAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY...PASSING THROUGH OUR AREA.
DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE TAF PERIOD. TSTMS PSBL ALL TAF
SITES THIS AFTN/EVENING...MAINLY 21-03Z...WITH GUSTY TO STRONG
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL AS THE MAIN THREATS. PSBL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
AS WELL WITH ANY TSTM.
THE MAIN CONCERN MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A FEW WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...HAIL AND REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS XPCTD TO RMN BLO SCA VALUES TDA/TNGT. TSTMS PSBL THIS
AFTN/EVE WHICH MAY NECESSITATE NEED FOR SPL MARINE WRNGS.
A BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE WATER TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT NEAR
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP MAY
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. ALSO...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS TUESDAY.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
726 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SW FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE UPR GRT LKS BTWN UPR RDG AXIS ORIENTED FM JAMES BAY INTO
THE SE CONUS AND AN UPR TROF OVER WRN CANADA/NRN ROCKIES. SHRTWV
EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS THAT FELL
ON SAT EVNG IS NOW OVER LK SUP AND LIFTING TO THE NE. VIGOROUS MID
LVL DRYING UNDER THE DNVA/SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS
DISTURBANCE....REFLECTED BY 00Z H7-5 DEWPT DEPRESSIONS OF 15-20C AT
THE RAOB SITES UPSTREAM OF UPR MI...HAS ENDED THE SHOWERS OVER THE
CWA. BUT WITH LINGERING LLVL MSTR UNDER THE MID LVL DRYING IN THE
PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING...AREAS OF FOG HAVE FORMED. THIS FOG
HAS BECOME LOCALLY DENSE ESPECIALLY OVER THE KEWEENAW AND NEAR LK MI
WHERE THE LIGHT LLVL E WIND IS ONSHORE. THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF
SHOWERS/TS STRETCHING FM SE WI INTO SW LOWER MI...BUT THE
RESPONSIBLE SHRTWV/AREA OF H85 THETA E ADVECTION ARE ON TRACK TO
PASS FAR ENUF TO THE SE SO THAT THIS PCPN SHOULD MISS THE CWA.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...A SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE WRN TROF IS MOVING THRU
THE NRN ROCKIES AND BRINGING SOME SHOWERS/TS AS FAR E AS THE NRN
PLAINS.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON FOG/LO CLDS AND ALSO
POPS MAINLY LATE TNGT AS THE SHRTWV IN THE NRN ROCKIES WITHIN THE
SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE UPR TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FNT APRCH FM THE W.
TODAY...UPR MI WL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LARGER SCALE QVECTOR
DVGC/H85-5 DRYING UNDER SHRTWV RDG AXIS. HOW PERSISTENT FOG/LO CLDS
WL BE IS THUS THE MAIN CONCERN. GIVEN THE HI JUN SUN ANGLE AND THE
ABSENCE OF THICKER MID CLDS...EXPECT DAYTIME HEATING TO GRDLY LIFT
THE LO CLD CIG/FOG BY NOON AT MOST PLACES. BEST CHC FOR MORE
PERSISTENT FOG/STRATUS WL BE ALONG THE LK SHORES...WHERE PROXIMITY
TO CHILLY WATERS WL MAINTAIN HIER NEAR SFC RH. WL ISSUE AN SPS TO
HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DENSE FOG THIS MRNG FOR THE
KEWEENAW AND NEAR LK MI. PREVIOUS FCST HAD SOME MRNG DRIZZLE...OPTED
TO MAINTAIN THIS FCST. A FEW MODELS ALSO GENERATE SOME QPF/SHOWERS
OVER THE MAINLY THE E HALF THIS AFTN IN AREA OF CNVGC BTWN LK BREEZES
OFF LKS SUP AND MI...BUT FCST SDNGS SHOW SUCH AN IMPRESSIVE
SUBSIDENCE INVRN THAT THIS OUTCOME SEEMS UNLIKELY.
TONIGHT...EXPECT AT LEAST PATCHY FOG TO REDEVELOP TNGT WITH
NOCTURNAL COOLING AS MID LVL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE ARE FCST TO REMAIN
IN PLACE THRU AT LEAST 06Z. BUT LATE TNGT...ARRIVAL OF SOME DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC/MID LVL MSTR OVER THE W IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV NOW OVER
THE NRN ROCKIES MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS. SINCE MUCAPE IS FCST TO BE
NO HIER THAN ABOUT 250 J/KG AND THE MSTR RIBBON WL BE ARRIVING IN
ABSENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING...DID NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF TS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
LOW PRESSURE PUSHING ACROSS HUDSON BAY WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT OVER
THE REGION MONDAY /OVER THE FAR W THIRD OF THE CWA AROUND 12Z
MONDAY/...AND THE E AROUND 18Z/. COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
FRONT MOVES OVER THE E HALF...WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE OFF BOTH LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MI AND BETTER
INSTABILITY WITH DAYTIME HEATING. CAPE VALUES LOOK TO TOP OUT 200-
400J/KG CENTRAL AND E.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND INTO E MT MONDAY
MORNING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE N PLAINS...AND SHIFT OVER UPPER MI
TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY EXIT E TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER
SHOULD BE THE RULE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. EXPECT
LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH CENTERED OVER E UPPER MI
AT 06Z WEDNESDAY SHIFTS E. PW VALUES THERE WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN
THE 0.3 TO 0.5IN...WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 9-10C. LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S LOOKING REASONABLE FOR MORNING LOWS /ESPECIALLY FOR THE
TRADITIONAL COOL FIRE WX SITES/.
AS FOR MIDWEEK...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE NEARING...BUT THERE IS PLENTY
OF DISCREPANCIES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH. STARTING AT AROUND 00Z
THURSDAY THE GFS LOOKS TO BE AROUND 12HRS FASTER THAN BOTH THE 00Z
RUNS OF THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF WITH THE SFC LOW ACROSS ONTARIO. WILL
OPT TO GO WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION. WHILE THE STRONGER FEATURES WILL
REMAIN CLOSER TO HUDSON BAY...AND S INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEY...A SHORTWAVE IN THE OTHERWISE MAINLY ZONAL FLOW WILL
SHIFT IN. GIVEN THE STORMS LIKELY TO OUR S IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO
SEE IF ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO SURGE IN TO WARRANT THE HIGH
END CHANCE POPS. KEPT THESE HIGHER POPS MAINLY INLAND FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR. ANOTHER SYSTEM SLIDING IN FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY LOOKS
TO BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. KEPT THE CHANCE
WORDING FOR THUNDERSTORMS...AND HIGHLIGHTED THEM IN THE HWO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 726 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
ABUNDANT LLVL MSTR UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS RESULTING IN FOG/LO
CLDS AND LIFR CONDITIONS THIS MRNG AT ALL 3 TAF SITES. BUT DAYTIME
HEATING WL ALLOW CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR BY EARLY THIS AFTN
AND THEN TO VFR BY MID/LATE AFTN. THE IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY TO BE
SLOWEST AT CMX WITH AN UPSLOPE W WIND. WITH ONSET OF NOCTURNAL
COOLING THIS EVNG...EXPECT MORE FOG/LO CLDS TO DEVELOP EXCEPT
PERHAPS AT IWD...WHERE HI CLDS IN ADVANCE OF AN APRCHG COLD FNT MAY
LIMIT THE COOLING. AS THE COLD FNT GETS CLOSER LATE...INCRSG MID
CLDS WL LIKELY BRING IMPROVEMENT AT CMX AND SAW AS WELL.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
PRESSURE CHANGES ARE MINIMAL...LEADING TO WINDS LESS THAN 25KTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD /OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS/. FOG WILL REMAIN
AN OFF AND ON CONCERN ALONG THE SHORELINE AND E THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. EXPECTING MORE WIDESPREAD FOG TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS FAR NE MANITOBA TODAY TO SLIDE
INTO HUDSON BAY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WHILE DRAGGING A TROUGH
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE N PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE
MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH WILL LIKELY
SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE A RIDGE BUILDS IN ON THURSDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
602 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.UPDATE FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE FOG EARLY AND THEN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES ALONG COLD FRONT.
FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER AREAS THAT CLEARED AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAINLY
OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA. VISIBILITY HAS DROPPED TO
1/2SM OR LESS AT TIMES...AND THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE TREND EARLY
THIS MORNING. WILL MENTION PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG THROUGH ABOUT 13Z.
LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS SHOWING MAIN SCATTERED CONVECTION
LIFTING WELL NORTHWEST OF THE CWA ALONG AND BEHIND THE MAIN SURFACE
COLD FRONT. EXPECT THIS EAST NORTH DAKOTAS ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NORTH
OF THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING. THE LATEST HRRR DID SHOW
SOME SHOWER POSSIBILITY INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST CWA THIS
MORNING...BUT THE MAIN SHOW SHOULD BE INTO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THIS MODEL MOVES WHAT APPEARS TO BE A MCV OR VORT MAX ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AT THIS
TIME...INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA THROUGH POSSIBLE 18Z. IT
UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT IT EAST/NORTHEAST AND
SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THE VARIOUS HIRES MODELS THEN MOVE THE FRONT INTO CENTRAL MN BY 04Z
OR SO...A BIT FASTER THAN THE NAM ESPECIALLY...WHICH APPEARS TO BE
THE SLOWEST OF THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS. THE FRONT SHOULD EXIT INTO
WESTERN WI THROUGH 06Z OR SO...WITH AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND OF
CONVECTION. INITIALLY SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS DUE DEVELOP INTO
WESTERN MINNESOTA BY THIS EVENING...WITH GFS MUCAPE PROGGED TO
INCREASE TO AROUND 2000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT/MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES TO NEAR 7.0C/KM AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR 35-40KTS. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AS IT PROPAGATES EAST INTO THE EVENING. SPC`S DAY1 OUTLOOK
OF SLIGHT RISK INTO WEST CENTRAL MN LOOKS REASONABLE AT THE
MOMENT. ALL MODELS INDICATE A WEAKENING TREND OVERNIGHT AS IT
MOVES EAST...AS THE MAIN FORCING DOES RIDE NORTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH THE UPPER JET. SO WILL CONTINUE THE TREND
OF TRAILING OFF LIKELY POPS INTO CENTRAL MN THROUGH 06Z MON.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST HAS INCREASED DURING
THE PAST 24 HOURS AS THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW PRETTY MUCH IN
STEP WITH THE SURFACE AND UPPER AIR PATTERN FOR OUR AREA THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
A COOL FRONT WILL BE MOVING EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FA ON MONDAY.
VARIOUS CAMS SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE MORNING TO
THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE TWIN CITIES ON BACK TO SIOUX FALLS.
THESE WILL DIMINISH OR END DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PASS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MN SHOULD SEE LOWS TUESDAY MORNING IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S.
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO AFFECT THE REGION
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH IN FROM THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TIMING HAS REMAINED VERY CONSISTENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH
LIKELY POPS COVERING MUCH OF THE FA ON WEDNESDAY.
THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD OVER WHAT WAS SEEN A DAY AGO.
THERE LOOKS TO BE A DRY PERIOD ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES BY. THEREFORE...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE REMOVED.
THE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY PERIODS WILL SEE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM MAY CAUSE
SOME PROBLEMS IN THE FORM OF HEAVY RAIN. TO BACK UP...THERE IS A
TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THAT BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF BRING INTO TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THIS FEATURE
MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY LATE IN THE
WEEK. THIS HAS AN AFFECT ON OUR WEATHER SYSTEM COMING IN FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY SLOWING IT DOWN AND STRETCHING OUT A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY JUST TO OUR SOUTH FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AS THIS
OCCURS...WE ARE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
JET...AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WITH THE 925-850MB THETA-E
AXIS POINTING FROM NEBRASKA THROUGH EASTERN MN AND WI. THIS SETUP IS
SIMILAR TO A PREDECESSOR RAIN EVENT WITH A TROPICAL SYSTEM. THE
GFS IS PROGGING PW/S OVER 2 INCHES OVER THE REGION WHICH IS ABOVE
THE DAILY MAX ON THE KMPX SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY. BOTH MODELS SHOW
2-4 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE FA DURING THIS PERIOD AND THIS IS
WHERE THE STORY GETS INTERESTING. A BREAKDOWN ON THE PRECIP TYPE
FROM THE GFS SHOWS THAT THE TOTAL IS DOMINATED BY STABLE PRECIP.
THIS IS SIMILAR TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK WHEN THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS WERE SHOWING HIGH AMOUNTS OF QPF FOR US WHEN THE CAMS
SHOWED IT FARTHER SOUTH. JUST LOOKING AT THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
WITH THE LOW NEAR THE IA/MN BORDER WITH A WARM FRONT TO EXTENDING
TO THE EAST...ONE WOULD THINK THAT THERE SHOULD BE MORE CONVECTIVE
PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH. A CHECK OF THE CIPS ANALOGS FOR 120 HOURS
USING THE GFS SHOWED THE HEAVIEST RAINS WERE FROM IA AND IL ON
SOUTHWARD. WE SHALL SEE. THE END OF WEEK FORECAST DOES HAVE LIKELY
POPS PUSHING EAST AND SOUTH ACROSS THE FA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 559 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
WIDE VARIATION IN VSBYS/CEILINGS THIS MORNING. LOWER IFR LIMITED
TO RIVER VALLEY REGIONS TO THE WEST...AND MORE WIDESPREAD
CONDITIONS TO THE EAST. THIS SHOULD ALL ERODE/LIFT TO VFR THROUGH
ABOUT 15Z. THEN SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES INCREASE FROM THE WEST
AFTER 18Z AT KAXN...SPREADING EAST WITH FROPA BY 05Z IN MN AND
LATER WITH A WEAKENING TREND INTO WESTERN WI. EXPECT MVFR CIGS
FOR A TIME BEHIND FRONT WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTH/NORTHWEST WITH FROPA.
KMSP...
LOW CONFIDENCE ON FOG AND HOW LOW STRATUS WILL AFFECT THE AIRPORT
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE STRATOCU DECK REFORMED AND OVER THE
METRO...AND HAS KEPT MUCH OF THE FOG AT BAY. VSBYS ARE LOWER TO
THE EAST OVER EASTERN METRO...AND IT MAY WORK INTO THE AREA THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AFTER THIS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
UNTIL FROPA LATER TONIGHT. SOME CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH THIS IN
THE 04Z-07Z WINDOW...WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THEREAFTER. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT BECOMING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...LESS THAN 10KTS. FROPA SHOULD GENERATE A NORTH WIND.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON AFTERNOON...VFR. WINDS NNW 10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. CHC OF TSRA LATE. WINDS NE 5-10 KTS.
WED...MVFR. TSRA/SHRA LIKELY WITH IFR CONDS POSSIBLE. WINDS SE
5-10 KTS BECMG NE.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...DWE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
1013 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.UPDATE...
THE FORECAST THINKING IS GENERALLY THE SAME WITH EXPECTATION FOR
GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS.
AND THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS PRODUCING A SIMILAR SET-UP TO YESTERDAY
WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6 TO 6.5 DEG C/KM RANGE AND ~20KTS
OF LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT STORMS TO ORGANIZE ALONG CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG/SVR WIND
GUSTS. QUICKER STORM MOTIONS SHOULD LIMIT HEAVY RAINFALL DURATION
AND ANY FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL - LOCALLY HEAVY WOULD BE MOSTLY
GOVERNED BY STORM MERGER/BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. HAVE INCREASED POPS
BASED ON GREATER CONFIDENCE IN NEAR TERM GUIDANCE AND RAISED
FORECASTED HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BASED ON TRENDS. /EC/
&&
.AVIATION...MORNING RESTRICTIONS HAVE IMPROVED WITH SOME MVFR
CEILINGS HOLDING DUE TO INITIAL BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING THIS MORNING.
LOOK FOR CEILINGS TO PUSH INTO THE 3-4 KFT RANGE BY 17Z. FOCUS WILL
SHIFT TO SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING BY 17Z AND PUSHING N/NW BETWEEN 17-
22Z. WILL TRY AND TIME THESE AS RESTRICTED CONDITIONS FROM THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE BRIEF. MUCH OF THE PERIOD BETWEEN 23-07Z WILL BE
QUIET AND VFR. LOOK FOR IFR CEILINGS/VIS TO AGAIN DEVELOP AFTER 08-
09Z WITH BETTER FOG POTENTIAL ACROSS THE FAR E SITES BETWEEN 11-12Z.
/CME/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015/
FOR TODAY THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH BEFORE LIFTING. SO HAVE PUT
PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG FOR THOSE AREAS. HIRES MODELS SHOWS VERY
LITTLE ACTIVITY FOR EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AS WE PUSH INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE ACTIVITY
WILL TRACK NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY. EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
TO BE ACROSS THE WEST AND THE LOWEST POPS IN THE EAST WHERE THE RIDGE
INFLUENCE WILL BE THE BEST. WILL BE LOOKING FOR SOME INSTABILITY WITH
LACK OF SHEAR FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH THE IMPRESSIVE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THERE MAY BE A STRONG STORM OR TWO DUE TO
MESOSCALE PROCESSES FROM OTHER STORMS. SOME MORE PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP IN PORTIONS OF THE EAST AND SOUTH FOR EARLY MONDAY. MODELS
SHOWS THAT THE MEAN RIDGE FROM THE EAST WILL HAVE A STRONGER
INFLUENCE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BE REFLECTED BY THE
LOWER POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE REGION. EXPECT THE
ACTIVITY TO DECREASE ACROSS THE WEST HALF DURING THE EVENING. SOME
ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAY LINGER OVER THE FAR WEST ON MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPS
WILL BE GENERALLY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER
70S. /17/
LONG TERM...TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...RAIN CHANCES IN GENERAL
SHOULD BE NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR MID TO LATE JUNE WITH
LEVELS OF HEAT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THERE ACTUALLY IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR EASTERN ZONES TO BE A LITTLE DRY THROUGH THIS
PERIOD..OWING MAINLY TO THE POSITION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH ENCROACHING
FROM THE EAST.
THE BIG WILD CARD FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST OVER OUR REGION WILL BE
THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE WESTERN GULF
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE NHC IS MONITORING FOR DEVELOPMENT VERY
CLOSELY AND MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A WEAK SYSTEM WHICH
IMPACTS THE SE TX COAST AROUND LATE TUESDAY...AND THEN PROGRESSES
NORTH TOWARD THE ARKLATEX AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS RIDGE. IF THIS SYSTEM DOES INDEED DEVELOP AND FOLLOWS THE
EASTERN ENVELOPE OF POSSIBLE MODEL SOLUTIONS THEN IT WILL PROBABLY
BRING GOOD RAIN CHANCES (AND MAYBE EVEN POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN) TO FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY. CHANCES ARE BETTER THAN AVERAGE THAT AT THE VERY
LEAST RAIN OPPORTUNITIES WILL INCREASE FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
SOMEWHAT IN THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY TIME FRAME AS THE DISTURBANCE
PHASES WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM AND INDUCES INCREASED LIFT AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AS IT PASSES TO OUR NORTH. AT THIS POINT THERE IS
WAY TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO WARRANT ANY HWO INCLUSION FOR HEAVY RAIN
THREATS IN WESTERN ZONES...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND MODELS ARE TRYING TO ORGANIZE A COLD FRONT
IN THE PLAINS WHICH EVENTUALLY COULD BE HEADED THIS WAY.
CONCURRENTLY THE BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS MAY START
BREAKING DOWN A BIT ALTHOUGH HEAT AND DRYNESS MAY MAKE A RESURGENCE
FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE ANY FRONT GETS CLOSE. /BB/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 92 72 90 72 / 50 12 26 14
MERIDIAN 92 70 91 71 / 24 11 12 11
VICKSBURG 90 73 90 73 / 61 20 34 21
HATTIESBURG 90 72 90 73 / 47 12 26 13
NATCHEZ 90 73 88 73 / 68 21 39 22
GREENVILLE 91 73 90 74 / 51 33 20 26
GREENWOOD 90 72 91 73 / 35 20 14 21
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
849 AM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.UPDATE...
JUST A FEW UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. IT WAS STABLE IN
THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BASED ON RAP SOUNDINGS.
STABILITY WAS AIDED BY EXTENSIVE LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER SEEN ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. UPPER AIR PLOTS SHOWED A 700 MB COLD
FRONT DROPPING S THROUGH MT AT 12Z WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO
OVER N MT. THIS FRONT WAS FORECAST TO BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE S
ZONES TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR AND MODEL DATA HAD A SHORTWAVE MOVING E
THROUGH THE AREA. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE CROSSING THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATERS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SE MT. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL E FLOW WILL
PROHIBIT GOOD MIXING. POPS WERE IN GOOD SHAPE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
HIGHER POPS OVER THE E REFLECTING LATEST RADAR TRENDS THIS
MORNING...AND HIGHER POPS W SHOWING THE TERRAIN INFLUENCE THIS
AFTERNOON. STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A LOW CHANCE OF
THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO ADJUSTED THUNDER CHANCES A
LITTLE LOWER FOR THESE PERIODS. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN IT HAS
BEEN DUE TO THE POOR MIXING. ANY SUNNY BREAKS WILL LIKELY FILL IN
AGAIN WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND FRONT IN THE AREA. RAISED WIND SPEEDS
IN JUDITH GAP DUE TO PRESSURE RISES CAUSING GUSTY N WINDS. ARTHUR
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...
LOW TOP CONVECTION CONSISTING OF LIGHTNING AND OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL PERSISTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF MONTANA. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DID A
FAIRLY GOOD JOB OF PORTRAYING THIS IN PREVIOUS RUNS.
UPPER LEVEL JET CORE WILL PROGRESSIVELY MOVE THE UPPER LOW OVER
NORTHERN MANITOBA EASTWARD BY MONDAY. THIS WILL STABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE AND HELP BRING IN A COOLER AIR MASS. 850MB TEMP VALUES
WILL BE BETWEEN 7C AND 11C...WHICH TRANSLATES TO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S ACROSS THE REGION. DESPITE THE STABILIZING ATMOSPHERE...DECIDED
TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POP VALUES IN THE FORECAST...MAINLY IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.
MONDAY LOOKS DRY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING COMES INTO PLAY WITH
SOME AVAILABLE ENERGY...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. SPC IS
PAINTING A MARGINAL AREA THAT CORRESPONDS WELL WITH BOTH OF THESE
FEATURES. SINGER
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO BOUNCE
AROUND WITH SPECIFIC LOCATIONS AND BEST PERIODS FOR
PRECIPITATION...BUT OVERALL FAST NORTHERN STREAM PATTERN REMAINS
INTACT. STRONGER ENERGY MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY AND THEN A
MORE ORGANIZED PACIFIC TROF ON FRIDAY WILL BE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA BASED ON THE LATEST RUN. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED HIGHER WITH CAPE VALUES AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY ENHANCING STRONG THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...BUT
STILL NO DEFINITIVE SEVERE WEATHER PATTERN POPPING OUT OF THE
FORECAST. WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY
WITH AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POSSIBLE BUT NOT PROBABLE
FOR ANY SPECIFIC LOCATION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. NEXT WEEKEND COULD BE PRETTY WET IF
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HOLD TRUE. CHAMBERS
&&
.AVIATION...
COOLER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA SETTING UP A BIT OF AN OVER
RUNNING SCENARIO TODAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF IFR TO MVFR
CEILINGS THIS MORNING...LIFTING TO MVFR/VFR THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
SHOWERS WILL LINGER THIS MORNING...WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH PRECIPITATION.
CHAMBERS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 067 050/071 053/074 054/080 056/080 055/079 050/073
2/T 12/T 34/T 33/T 34/T 44/T 44/T
LVM 069 046/068 048/073 048/078 051/078 050/077 043/070
2/T 12/T 35/T 44/T 44/T 44/T 44/T
HDN 070 050/074 053/075 054/082 058/082 055/080 051/075
3/T 12/T 35/T 33/T 34/T 45/T 54/T
MLS 071 048/073 055/073 054/080 059/080 057/081 054/075
3/T 02/T 36/T 32/T 34/T 44/T 44/T
4BQ 068 049/071 053/073 053/079 058/080 056/080 052/074
3/T 12/T 35/T 32/T 33/T 35/T 55/T
BHK 070 045/072 052/067 051/076 055/077 056/077 051/073
3/T 02/T 36/T 32/T 34/T 43/T 44/T
SHR 066 047/070 050/072 050/078 054/081 054/078 048/071
2/T 33/T 35/T 44/T 43/T 35/T 54/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
947 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH MID WEEK.
THE WORST OF THE HEAT WAVE IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOMEWHAT
LOWER TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO WEAKEN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS
WEEK WILL BE ISOLATED.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM SUNDAY...THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
WAS TO FORECAST CLEAR SKIES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS IT`S CLEAR AND
SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY UNTIL WE REACH THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE
BETWEEN NOON AND ABOUT 130 PM. THE RUC AND HRRR MODELS ARE SHOWING A
HEALTHIER SEABREEZE CIRCULATION DEVELOPING THAT WHAT LAST NIGHT`S
SYNOPTIC MODELS WERE SHOWING...BUT GIVEN CONTINUED OFFSHORE WINDS AT
925/850 MB I AM INCLINED NOT TO SHOW A GREAT DEAL OF INLAND MOVEMENT
OF THE SEABREEZE FRONT. BY 5 PM THE BOUNDARY WILL PROBABLY BE 15-20
MILES INLAND ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA AND 12-15 MILES INLAND ACROSS
NE SOUTH CAROLINA...WITH HUMID SOUTH WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY NOT
PROVIDING MUCH IMPROVEMENT TO HEAT INDEX VALUES. THE GFS MOS
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN MUCH BETTER THAN THAN NAM OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS BUT EVEN IT HAS RUN A LITTLE COOL AT MOS SITES. NO CHANGES HAVE
BEEN MADE TO FORECAST HIGHS. DISCUSSION FROM 600 AM FOLLOWS...
THE HEAT WILL BE ON TODAY. WE ARE NOT QUITE FORECASTING HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA ALTHOUGH PROSPECTS FOR MEETING CRITERIA DO
INCREASE IN THE COMING DAYS. FOR TODAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW INLAND SPOTS
MAY EXPERIENCE HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 DEG FOR AN HOUR OR
SO...MIXING IS EXPECTED TO BRING DEWPOINTS DOWN JUST ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE A HEAT ADVISORY. HOWEVER...ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA...WE DO EXPECT MANY PLACES WILL REACH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 102
TO 104 DEG FOR A FEW HOURS TODAY. WE WILL REISSUE AN SPS TO ADDRESS
THE HEAT.
TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL RISE TO ABOUT 20 DEG C TODAY. THIS IS A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN ON SAT. ON SAT...MANY INLAND THERMOMETERS REGISTERED
UPPER 90S AND A FEW SPOTS...LIKE LBT...REACHED 100 DEG. LOCATIONS
NEARER TO THE COAST WERE MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 90S. THEREFORE...ALL
ELSE BEING EQUAL...MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE AS WARM IF NOT A DEGREE OR
TWO WARMER TODAY. WE ARE FORECASTING WIDESPREAD HIGHS VERY NEAR THE
CENTURY MARK INLAND. THE MORE COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE MID
AND UPPER 90S. THE SEABREEZE SHOULD MAKE SLIGHTLY BETTER PROGRESS
INLAND AS THE WESTERLY WINDS IN THE LOWEST 5 KFT WILL BE LIGHT
TODAY. HOWEVER...THIS WILL ONLY SERVE TO KEEP COASTAL DEWPOINTS
ELEVATED OR INCREASE THEM SLIGHTLY WHICH WILL ONLY ADD TO THE
DISCOMFORT LEVEL.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IN CONCERT WITH A VERY WARM RIDGE
ALOFT WILL BRING A BONA FIDE HEAT WAVE TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
THIS WEEK. RECORD HIGHS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO REACH OR EXCEED
TODAY...
THE RECORD HIGH AT FLO IS 102 SET IN 1958 AND THE FORECAST HIGH FOR
TODAY IS 99.
THE RECORD HIGH AT ILM IS 99 SET IN 1958 AND THE FORECAST HIGH FOR
TODAY IS 97.
THE RECORD HIGH AT CRE IS 98 SET IN 2010 AND THE FORECAST HIGH FOR
TODAY IS 93.
TEMPS AFTER SUNSET WILL BE VERY WARM WITH MANY PLACES STILL NEAR 80
DEG AS LATE AS THE MIDNIGHT HOUR. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE MID AND
UPPER 70S.
AS FAR AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONCERNED. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE SUBSIDENCE TODAY WHICH WOULD BE A DETRIMENT TO
DEVELOPING CONVECTION. HOWEVER...VERY STRONG HEATING WILL INCREASE
INSTABILITY WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND
2000 J/KG. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN NEAR 2 INCHES.
ALTHOUGH TEMPS ARE WARM ALOFT...THEY ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE WARM
ENOUGH TO SERVE AS A CAPPING INVERSION. BOUNDARIES WHICH MAY SERVE
TO FOCUS THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCLUDE THE SEABREEZE AND THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH. ALSO...A VERY WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST DURING THE TIME OF PEAK
HEATING. TAKING THE HRRR FORECAST INTO ACCOUNT...WILL OPT TO
INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE. ALTHOUGH THIS HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...IT DOES SHOW THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ACROSS OUR INLAND ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...DANGEROUS AND RECORD BREAKING HEAT DURING
THIS PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH STRADDLING
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH OVER SOUTHERN NC...MUCH OF SC...AND
ACROSS EASTERN GEORGIA...DURING THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SFC
RIDGING FROM THE CENTER OF THE OFFSHORE BERMUDA HIGH WILL EXTEND
WSW INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. AT THE SAME TIME...THE SFC PIEDMONT
TROF WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD. THIS SFC PRESSURE PATTERN WILL RESULT WITH SFC SW-NW
WINDS ACROSS THE ILM CWA...AND SOUTHERLY WINDS CLOSER TO THE
COAST EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING DUE TO THE DAILY SEA BREEZE.
AS FOR MAX AND MIN TEMPS...HAVE STAYED CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY
HOTTER GFS MOS MODEL GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY WITH DAILY MAX TEMPS.
A GOOD CHUNK OF THE FA WILL BE LOOKING AT POSSIBLE 100+ DEGREE
TEMPERATURE READINGS EACH DAY...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST AND THE EFFECTS FROM THE INLAND PROGRESSING AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE. EVEN THOUGH THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL NOT EXPERIENCE
THE AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS THAT INLAND AREAS DO...BUT THEY WILL
HOWEVER EXPERIENCE HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGHER
RHS. WITH THIS SAID...THE AREA INCLUDING THE IMMEDIATE
COAST...WILL BE LOOKING AT PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 104 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE. THIS PLACES
THE FA WITHIN HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND LIKELY ONE WILL BE
ISSUED FOR THIS TIME PERIOD LATER TODAY. FOR THE TIME BEING...A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE UPCOMING DANGEROUS HEAT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM WITH 75-80 DEGREE READINGS
BOTH NIGHTS...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
WHERE LOCAL SSTS ARE NOW IN THE LOWER 80S.
AS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH DAY...HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR EACH AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. THIS TO OCCUR WITH WEAK UVVS ALONG
THE INLAND PROGRESSING SEA BREEZE. THE CONVECTION WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED AND WEAK WITH VERY LITTLE HELP OR SUPPORT FROM ALOFT DUE TO
THE LACK OF ANY S/W TROFS/VORTS PASSING OVERHEAD.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...THE EXTENDED PROGS INDICATE THE UPPER HIGH
AND ASSOCIATED RIDGING ACROSS THE FA WEDNESDAY...IS EXPECTED TO
SLIDE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST LATE THU THRU SATURDAY. THIS A RESULT
OF FORCING FROM A MODEST BUT POTENT UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL S/W TROF
UPSTREAM...THAT PUSHES FROM THE LOWER PLAINS STATES TO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS COME SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...WEDNESDAY AND
POSSIBLY THU WILL BE THE HOTTEST OF THE 4 DAYS IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. WITH RELATIVELY NO CHANGE IN THE MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...THE COMBINATION OF RH WITH AFTN TEMPS WED AND THU
WILL YIELD HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 100-104...WITH A FEW 105
READINGS ESPECIALLY ON WED. OVERALL...WILL SEE DAILY MAXES LOWER
BY A DEGREE OR 2 DURING EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY...WITH THE GFS MOS
GUIDANCE ILLUSTRATING THIS WELL.
WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH PROGRESSING EAST OF THE ILM
CWA DURING THIS PERIOD...UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL S/W TROFS/VORTS WILL
HAVE A CHANCE TO PUSH ACROSS THE FA. THE TIMING OF THIS OCCURRENCE
DURING THE DAY...IE. INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE SEA BREEZE...WILL
BE CRUCIAL IN DETERMINING THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. CURRENTLY
15-20 POPS WED AND THU...THAT INCREASE TO 30-40 POPS FRI INTO
SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY IN STORE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
TO OUR WEST WILL GIVE US NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW THIS MORNING...
BECOMING SOUTHWEST OR SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION EXPECTED. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS ONCE AGAIN HIGH...BUT
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF A TRIGGER TO KICK THINGS OFF. DIMINISHING
WINDS THIS EVENING WITH PERHAPS SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH
MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM SUNDAY...OFFSHORE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. AS INLAND TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO
THE UPPER 90S THIS SHOULD INDUCE A SEABREEZE CIRCULATION TO FORM
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. NEARSHORE WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY WITH
SPEEDS STILL AROUND 10 KNOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO
THE FORECAST. DISCUSSION FROM 600 AM FOLLOWS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONCERT WITH A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE. MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WILL INCLUDE THE MORNING LAND
BREEZE AND THE NEARLY PINNED AFTERNOON AND EVE SEABREEZE. THE WIND
DIRECTION TO START THE PERIOD WILL BE FROM THE W AND NW 10 KT OR
LESS. SW WINDS WILL RETURN BY LATE MORNING AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
WILL GENERALLY BE 10 TO 15 KT...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE DUE TO SEABREEZE
INFLUENCES. ANY NOCTURNAL JETTING LOOKS RATHER WEAK TONIGHT...SO DO
NOT EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT
THROUGHOUT.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...SFC RIDGING WILL EXTEND WESTWARD FROM THE
CENTER OF THE BERMUDA HIGH TO ACROSS FLORIDA. THIS SFC PRESSURE
POSITIONING WILL RESULT IN WESTERLY WINDS TO START THE DAY THAT
BACK TO THE SSW-SW EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY CLOSER
TO THE COAST DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN RELAXED FOR MONDAY WITH 10 KT WIND SPEEDS COMMON...EXCEPT
NEAR SHORE WHERE THE SEA-BREEZE COULD PUSH SPEEDS TO 10-15 KT. THE
SFC PG IS PROGGED TO TIGHTEN-SOME EARLY TUE THRU TUE NIGHT. THIS
COULD RESULT IN A SOLID 15 KT WIND SPEED. AS FOR SIGNIFICANT
SEAS...THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE LOOKING AT 2 TO OCCASIONALLY 3
FT...WITH 4 TO 5 SECOND WIND DRIVEN WAVES AND A 1 FOOT ESE 11
SECOND PERIOD GROUND SWELL DUKING IT OUT TO WHICH DOMINATES.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...DURING THIS PERIOD...THE AREA WATERS WILL
LIE BETWEEN THE NE-SW ORIENTED SFC TROF OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...AND THE SFC RIDGING THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
BERMUDA HIGH WELL OFFSHORE FROM THE SE U.S....ACROSS THE FLORIDA
COAST. THIS WILL PREDOMINATELY PRODUCE A SW WIND DIRECTION THRU
THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE NOT AS PRONOUNCED...COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS...WITH THE PROGGED TIGHTENED SFC PG ACROSS THE AREA
WATERS WEDNESDAY THRU THURSDAY. WILL NOT ENTIRELY BUY THIS
OUTPUT...BUT WILL MENTION A SOLID 10-15 KT WIND SPEED THRU THE
PERIOD...POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 15-20 KT LATE THU.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FEET...POSSIBLY UP TO 4 FT LATER
THU. WIND DRIVEN WAVES AT 4 TO 5 SECOND PERIODS WILL DOMINATE THE
SIGNIFICANT SEAS. A LESS THAN 1 FOOT...11 SECOND PERIOD...ESE
GROUND SWELL TO REMAIN IDENTIFIABLE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 945 AM SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY NOT BE RECORD-BREAKING
HEAT IT`S STILL THE FIRST TIME IN ALMOST 3 YEARS WE`VE HAD THESE
KIND OF TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST.
...MOST RECENT HOT TEMPERATURE OCCURRENCES...
97 98 99 100 101 102 103
WILMINGTON 6/20/14 7/27/12 7/27/12 7/27/12 7/27/12 6/30/12 6/30/12
MYRTLE BEACH 7/24/12 7/24/12 7/28/05 7/27/05 7/27/05 8/17/54 8/17/54
FLORENCE 6/13/15 9/02/14 9/02/14 7/09/14 7/26/12 7/09/12 7/01/12
FLORENCE INFORMATION UPDATED FOR YESTERDAY`S HIGH OF 97 DEGREES.
THIS INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE GRAPHICALLY ON OUR FACEBOOK &
TWITTER PAGES.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RJD/TRA
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...DL
CLIMATE...TRA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
639 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH MID WEEK.
THE WORST OF THE HEAT WAVE IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOMEWHAT
LOWER TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO WEAKEN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS
WEEK WILL BE ISOLATED.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM SUNDAY...THE HEAT WILL BE ON TODAY. WE ARE NOT QUITE
FORECASTING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ALTHOUGH PROSPECTS FOR MEETING
CRITERIA DO INCREASE IN THE COMING DAYS. FOR TODAY...ALTHOUGH A
FEW INLAND SPOTS MAY EXPERIENCE HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 DEG FOR
AN HOUR OR SO...MIXING IS EXPECTED TO BRING DEWPOINTS DOWN JUST
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A HEAT ADVISORY. HOWEVER...ACROSS OUR ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA...WE DO EXPECT MANY PLACES WILL REACH HEAT INDEX
VALUES OF 102 TO 104 DEG FOR A FEW HOURS TODAY. WE WILL REISSUE AN
SPS TO ADDRESS THE HEAT.
TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL RISE TO ABOUT 20 DEG C TODAY. THIS IS A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN ON SAT. ON SAT...MANY INLAND THERMOMETERS REGISTERED
UPPER 90S AND A FEW SPOTS...LIKE LBT...REACHED 100 DEG. LOCATIONS
NEARER TO THE COAST WERE MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 90S. THEREFORE...ALL
ELSE BEING EQUAL...MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE AS WARM IF NOT A DEGREE OR
TWO WARMER TODAY. WE ARE FORECASTING WIDESPREAD HIGHS VERY NEAR THE
CENTURY MARK INLAND. THE MORE COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE MID
AND UPPER 90S. THE SEABREEZE SHOULD MAKE SLIGHTLY BETTER PROGRESS
INLAND AS THE WESTERLY WINDS IN THE LOWEST 5 KFT WILL BE LIGHT
TODAY. HOWEVER...THIS WILL ONLY SERVE TO KEEP COASTAL DEWPOINTS
ELEVATED OR INCREASE THEM SLIGHTLY WHICH WILL ONLY ADD TO THE
DISCOMFORT LEVEL.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IN CONCERT WITH A VERY WARM RIDGE
ALOFT WILL BRING A BONA FIDE HEAT WAVE TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
THIS WEEK. RECORD HIGHS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO REACH OR EXCEED
TODAY...
THE RECORD HIGH AT FLO IS 102 SET IN 1958 AND THE FORECAST HIGH FOR
TODAY IS 99.
THE RECORD HIGH AT ILM IS 99 SET IN 1958 AND THE FORECAST HIGH FOR
TODAY IS 97.
THE RECORD HIGH AT CRE IS 98 SET IN 2010 AND THE FORECAST HIGH FOR
TODAY IS 93.
TEMPS AFTER SUNSET WILL BE VERY WARM WITH MANY PLACES STILL NEAR 80
DEG AS LATE AS THE MIDNIGHT HOUR. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE MID AND
UPPER 70S.
AS FAR AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONCERNED. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE SUBSIDENCE TODAY WHICH WOULD BE A DETRIMENT TO
DEVELOPING CONVECTION. HOWEVER...VERY STRONG HEATING WILL INCREASE
INSTABILITY WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND
2000 J/KG. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN NEAR 2 INCHES.
ALTHOUGH TEMPS ARE WARM ALOFT...THEY ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE WARM
ENOUGH TO SERVE AS A CAPPING INVERSION. BOUNDARIES WHICH MAY SERVE
TO FOCUS THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCLUDE THE SEABREEZE AND THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH. ALSO...A VERY WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST DURING THE TIME OF PEAK
HEATING. TAKING THE HRRR FORECAST INTO ACCOUNT...WILL OPT TO
INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE. ALTHOUGH THIS HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...IT DOES SHOW THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ACROSS OUR INLAND ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...DANGEROUS AND RECORD BREAKING HEAT DURING
THIS PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH STRADDLING
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH OVER SOUTHERN NC...MUCH OF SC...AND
ACROSS EASTERN GEORGIA...DURING THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SFC
RIDGING FROM THE CENTER OF THE OFFSHORE BERMUDA HIGH WILL EXTEND
WSW INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. AT THE SAME TIME...THE SFC PIEDMONT
TROF WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS THRUOUT THIS
PERIOD. THIS SFC PRESSURE PATTERN WILL RESULT WITH SFC SW-NW
WINDS ACROSS THE ILM CWA...AND SOUTHERLY WINDS CLOSER TO THE
COAST EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING DUE TO THE DAILY SEA BREEZE.
AS FOR MAX AND MIN TEMPS...HAVE STAYED CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY
HOTTER GFS MOS MODEL GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY WITH DAILY MAX TEMPS.
A GOOD CHUNK OF THE FA WILL BE LOOKING AT POSSIBLE 100+ DEGREE
TEMPERATURE READINGS EACH DAY...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST AND THE EFFECTS FROM THE INLAND PROGRESSING AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE. EVENTHOUGH THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL NOT EXPERIENCE
THE AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS THAT INLAND AREAS DO...BUT THEY WILL
HOWEVER EXPERIENCE HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGHER
RHS. WITH THIS SAID...THE AREA INCLUDING THE IMMEDIATE
COAST...WILL BE LOOKING AT PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 104 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE. THIS PLACES
THE FA WITHIN HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND LIKELY ONE WILL BE
ISSUED FOR THIS TIME PERIOD LATER TODAY. FOR THE TIME BEING...A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE UPCOMING DANGEROUS HEAT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM WITH 75-80 DEGREE READINGS
BOTH NIGHTS...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
WHERE LOCAL SSTS ARE NOW IN THE LOWER 80S.
AS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH DAY...HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR EACH AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. THIS TO OCCUR WITH WEAK UVVS ALONG
THE INLAND PROGRESSING SEA BREEZE. THE CONVECTION WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED AND WEAK WITH VERY LITTLE HELP OR SUPPORT FROM ALOFT DUE TO
THE LACK OF ANY S/W TROFS/VORTS PASSING OVERHEAD.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...THE EXTENDED PROGS INDICATE THE UPPER HIGH
AND ASSOCIATED RIDGING ACROSS THE FA WEDNESDAY...IS EXPECTED TO
SLIDE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST LATE THU THRU SATURDAY. THIS A RESULT
OF FORCING FROM A MODEST BUT POTENT UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL S/W TROF
UPSTREAM...THAT PUSHES FROM THE LOWER PLAINS STATES TO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS COME SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...WEDNESDAY AND
POSSIBLY THU WILL BE THE HOTTEST OF THE 4 DAYS IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. WITH RELATIVELY NO CHANGE IN THE MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...THE COMBINATION OF RH WITH AFTN TEMPS WED AND THU
WILL YIELD HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 100-104...WITH A FEW 105
READINGS ESPECIALLY ON WED. OVERALL...WILL SEE DAILY MAXES LOWER
BY A DEGREE OR 2 DURING EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY...WITH THE GFS MOS
GUIDANCE ILLUSTRATING THIS WELL.
WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH PROGRESSING EAST OF THE ILM
CWA DURING THIS PERIOD...UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL S/W TROFS/VORTS WILL
HAVE A CHANCE TO PUSH ACROSS THE FA. THE TIMING OF THIS OCCURRENCE
DURING THE DAY...IE. INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE SEA BREEZE...WILL
BE CRUCIAL IN DETERMINING THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. CURRENTLY
15-20 POPS WED AND THU...THAT INCREASE TO 30-40 POPS FRI INTO
SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY IN STORE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
TO OUR WEST WILL GIVE US NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW THIS MORNING...
BECOMING SOUTHWEST OR SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION EXPECTED. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS ONCE AGAIN HIGH...BUT
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF A TRIGGER TO KICK THINGS OFF. DIMINISHING
WINDS THIS EVENING WITH PERHAPS SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH
MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONCERT WITH A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WILL
INCLUDE THE MORNING LAND BREEZE AND THE NEARLY PINNED AFTERNOON
AND EVE SEABREEZE. THE WIND DIRECTION TO START THE PERIOD WILL BE
FROM THE W AND NW 10 KT OR LESS. SW WINDS WILL RETURN BY LATE
MORNING AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WIND
SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE 10 TO 15
KT...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVE DUE TO SEABREEZE INFLUENCES. ANY NOCTURNAL
JETTING LOOKS RATHER WEAK TONIGHT...SO DO NOT EXPECT WIND SPEEDS
TO INCREASE. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT THROUGHOUT.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...SFC RIDGING WILL EXTEND WESTWARD FROM THE
CENTER OF THE BERMUDA HIGH TO ACROSS FLORIDA. THIS SFC PRESSURE
POSITIONING WILL RESULT IN WESTERLY WINDS TO START THE DAY THAT
BACK TO THE SSW-SW EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY CLOSER
TO THE COAST DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN RELAXED FOR MONDAY WITH 10 KT WIND SPEEDS COMMON...EXCEPT
NEAR SHORE WHERE THE SEA-BREEZE COULD PUSH SPEEDS TO 10-15 KT. THE
SFC PG IS PROGGED TO TIGHTEN-SOME EARLY TUE THRU TUE NIGHT. THIS
COULD RESULT IN A SOLID 15 KT WIND SPEED. AS FOR SIGNIFICANT
SEAS...THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE LOOKING AT 2 TO OCCASIONALLY 3
FT...WITH 4 TO 5 SECOND WIND DRIVEN WAVES AND A 1 FOOT ESE 11
SECOND PERIOD GROUND SWELL DUKING IT OUT TO WHICH DOMINATES.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...DURING THIS PERIOD...THE AREA WATERS WILL
LIE BETWEEN THE NE-SW ORIENTED SFC TROF OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...AND THE SFC RIDGING THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
BERMUDA HIGH WELL OFFSHORE FROM THE SE U.S....ACROSS THE FLORIDA
COAST. THIS WILL PREDOMINATELY PRODUCE A SW WIND DIRECTION THRU
THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE NOT AS PRONOUNCED...COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS...WITH THE PROGGED TIGHTENED SFC PG ACROSS THE AREA
WATERS WEDNESDAY THRU THURSDAY. WILL NOT ENTIRELY BUY THIS
OUTPUT...BUT WILL MENTION A SOLID 10-15 KT WIND SPEED THRU THE
PERIOD...POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 15-20 KT LATE THU.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FEET...POSSIBLY UP TO 4 FT LATER
THU. WIND DRIVEN WAVES AT 4 TO 5 SECOND PERIODS WILL DOMINATE THE
SIGNIFICANT SEAS. A LESS THAN 1 FOOT...11 SECOND PERIOD...ESE
GROUND SWELL TO REMAIN IDENTIFIABLE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY NOT BE RECORD-BREAKING
HEAT IT`S STILL THE FIRST TIME IN ALMOST 3 YEARS WE`VE HAD THESE
KIND OF TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST.
...MOST RECENT HOT TEMPERATURE OCCURRENCES...
97 98 99 100 101 102 103
WILMINGTON 6/20/14 7/27/12 7/27/12 7/27/12 7/27/12 6/30/12 6/30/12
MYRTLE BEACH 7/24/12 7/24/12 7/28/05 7/27/05 7/27/05 8/17/54 8/17/54
FLORENCE 9/02/14 9/02/14 9/02/14 7/09/14 7/26/12 7/09/12 7/01/12
THIS INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE GRAPHICALLY ON OUR FACEBOOK &
TWITTER PAGES.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...DL
CLIMATE...TRA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
620 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND PERSISTENT RIDGING
ALOFT...WILL CREATE HOT TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY EXCEED 100
DEGREES...AND MAY REACH 105 DEGREES OR HIGHER MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL WEAKEN SOME
BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY LOWER
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...THE HEAT WILL BE ON TODAY. WE ARE NOT QUITE
FORECASTING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ALTHOUGH PROSPECTS FOR MEETING
CRITERIA DO INCREASE IN THE COMING DAYS. FOR TODAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW
INLAND SPOTS MAY EXPERIENCE HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 DEG FOR AN HOUR
OR SO...MIXING IS EXPECTED TO BRING DEWPOINTS DOWN JUST ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE A HEAT ADVISORY. HOWEVER...ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA...WE DO EXPECT MANY PLACES WILL REACH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 102
TO 104 DEG FOR A FEW HOURS TODAY. WE WILL REISSUE AN SPS TO ADDRESS
THE HEAT.
TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL RISE TO ABOUT 20 DEG C TODAY. THIS IS A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN ON SAT. ON SAT...MANY INLAND THERMOMETERS REGISTERED
UPPER 90S AND A FEW SPOTS...LIKE LBT...REACHED 100 DEG. LOCATIONS
NEARER TO THE COAST WERE MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 90S. THEREFORE...ALL
ELSE BEING EQUAL...MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE AS WARM IF NOT A DEGREE OR
TWO WARMER TODAY. WE ARE FORECASTING WIDESPREAD HIGHS VERY NEAR THE
CENTURY MARK INLAND. THE MORE COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE MID
AND UPPER 90S. THE SEABREEZE SHOULD MAKE SLIGHTLY BETTER PROGRESS
INLAND AS THE WESTERLY WINDS IN THE LOWEST 5 KFT WILL BE LIGHT
TODAY. HOWEVER...THIS WILL ONLY SERVE TO KEEP COASTAL DEWPOINTS
ELEVATED OR INCREASE THEM SLIGHTLY WHICH WILL ONLY ADD TO THE
DISCOMFORT LEVEL.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A VERY WARM RIDGE ALOFT WILL IN
CONCERT BRING A BONA FIDE HEAT WAVE TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS
WEEK. RECORD HIGHS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO REACH OR EXCEED TODAY...
THE RECORD HIGH AT FLO IS 102 SET IN 1958 AND THE FORECAST HIGH FOR
TODAY IS 99.
THE RECORD HIGH AT ILM IS 99 SET IN 1958 AND THE FORECAST HIGH FOR
TODAY IS 97.
THE RECORD HIGH AT CRE IS 98 SET IN 2010 AND THE FORECAST HIGH FOR
TODAY IS 93.
TEMPS AFTER SUNSET WILL BE VERY WARM WITH MANY PLACES STILL NEAR 80
DEG AS LATE AS THE MIDNIGHT HOUR. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE MID AND
UPPER 70S.
AS FAR AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONCERNED. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE SUBSIDENCE TODAY WHICH WOULD BE A DETRIMENT TO
DEVELOPING CONVECTION. HOWEVER...VERY STRONG HEATING WILL INCREASE
INSTABILITY WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND
2000 J/KG. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN NEAR 2 INCHES.
ALTHOUGH TEMPS ARE WARM ALOFT...THEY ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE WARM
ENOUGH TO SERVE AS A CAPPING INVERSION. BOUNDARIES WHICH MAY SERVE
TO FOCUS THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCLUDE THE SEABREEZE AND THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH. ALSO...A VERY WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST DURING THE TIME OF PEAK
HEATING. TAKING THE HRRR FORECAST INTO ACCOUNT...WILL OPT FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE.
ALTHOUGH THIS HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL HAS NOT INITIALIZED VERY WELL
THIS HOUR...IT DOES SHOW THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ACROSS
OUR INLAND ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...DANGEROUS AND RECORD BREAKING HEAT DURING
THIS PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH STRADDLING
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH OVER SOUTHERN NC...MUCH OF SC...AND
ACROSS EASTERN GEORGIA...DURING THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SFC
RIDGING FROM THE CENTER OF THE OFFSHORE BERMUDA HIGH WILL EXTEND
WSW INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. AT THE SAME TIME...THE SFC PIEDMONT
TROF WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS THRUOUT THIS
PERIOD. THIS SFC PRESSURE PATTERN WILL RESULT WITH SFC SW-NW
WINDS ACROSS THE ILM CWA...AND SOUTHERLY WINDS CLOSER TO THE
COAST EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING DUE TO THE DAILY SEA BREEZE.
AS FOR MAX AND MIN TEMPS...HAVE STAYED CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY
HOTTER GFS MOS MODEL GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY WITH DAILY MAX TEMPS.
A GOOD CHUNK OF THE FA WILL BE LOOKING AT POSSIBLE 100+ DEGREE
TEMPERATURE READINGS EACH DAY...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST AND THE EFFECTS FROM THE INLAND PROGRESSING AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE. EVENTHOUGH THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL NOT EXPERIENCE
THE AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS THAT INLAND AREAS DO...BUT THEY WILL
HOWEVER EXPERIENCE HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGHER
RHS. WITH THIS SAID...THE AREA INCLUDING THE IMMEDIATE
COAST...WILL BE LOOKING AT PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 104 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE. THIS PLACES
THE FA WITHIN HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND LIKELY ONE WILL BE
ISSUED FOR THIS TIME PERIOD LATER TODAY. FOR THE TIME BEING...A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE UPCOMING DANGEROUS HEAT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM WITH 75-80 DEGREE READINGS
BOTH NIGHTS...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
WHERE LOCAL SSTS ARE NOW IN THE LOWER 80S.
AS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH DAY...HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR EACH AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. THIS TO OCCUR WITH WEAK UVVS ALONG
THE INLAND PROGRESSING SEA BREEZE. THE CONVECTION WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED AND WEAK WITH VERY LITTLE HELP OR SUPPORT FROM ALOFT DUE TO
THE LACK OF ANY S/W TROFS/VORTS PASSING OVERHEAD.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...THE EXTENDED PROGS INDICATE THE UPPER HIGH
AND ASSOCIATED RIDGING ACROSS THE FA WEDNESDAY...IS EXPECTED TO
SLIDE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST LATE THU THRU SATURDAY. THIS A RESULT
OF FORCING FROM A MODEST BUT POTENT UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL S/W TROF
UPSTREAM...THAT PUSHES FROM THE LOWER PLAINS STATES TO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS COME SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...WEDNESDAY AND
POSSIBLY THU WILL BE THE HOTTEST OF THE 4 DAYS IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. WITH RELATIVELY NO CHANGE IN THE MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...THE COMBINATION OF RH WITH AFTN TEMPS WED AND THU
WILL YIELD HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 100-104...WITH A FEW 105
READINGS ESPECIALLY ON WED. OVERALL...WILL SEE DAILY MAXES LOWER
BY A DEGREE OR 2 DURING EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY...WITH THE GFS MOS
GUIDANCE ILLUSTRATING THIS WELL.
WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH PROGRESSING EAST OF THE ILM
CWA DURING THIS PERIOD...UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL S/W TROFS/VORTS WILL
HAVE A CHANCE TO PUSH ACROSS THE FA. THE TIMING OF THIS OCCURRENCE
DURING THE DAY...IE. INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE SEA BREEZE...WILL
BE CRUCIAL IN DETERMINING THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. CURRENTLY
15-20 POPS WED AND THU...THAT INCREASE TO 30-40 POPS FRI INTO
SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY IN STORE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
TO OUR WEST WILL GIVE US NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW THIS
MORNING...BECOMING SOUTHWEST OR SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION EXPECTED. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS ONCE AGAIN HIGH...BUT NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF A TRIGGER TO KICK THINGS OFF. DIMINISHING WINDS
THIS EVENING WITH PERHAPS SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH
MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONCERT WITH A LARGE
UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WILL INCLUDE
THE MORNING LAND BREEZE AND THE NEARLY PINNED AFTERNOON AND EVE
SEABREEZE. THE WIND DIRECTION TO START THE PERIOD WILL BE FROM THE W
AND NW 10 KT OR LESS. SW WINDS WILL RETURN BY LATE MORNING AND THEN
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE 10 TO 15 KT...WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE DUE
TO SEABREEZE INFLUENCES. ANY NOCTURNAL JETTING LOOKS RATHER WEAK
TONIGHT...SO DO NOT EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE. SEAS WILL BE 2
TO 3 FT THROUGHOUT.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN
VA/NORTHERN NC WILL EXIST WITHIN A REGIME DOMINATED BY HOT HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT. WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION WILL BE GOVERNED MAINLY
BY DIURNAL SEABREEZE/LANDBREEZE PROCESSES. WESTERLY WINDS BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY DURING BOTH
AFTERNOONS. SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 2 FEET...EXCEPT BUILDING TO 3 FEET
MONDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM
SUNDAY...SFC RIDGING WILL EXTEND WESTWARD FROM THE CENTER OF THE
BERMUDA HIGH TO ACROSS FLORIDA. THIS SFC PRESSURE POSITIONING WILL
RESULT IN WESTERLY WINDS TO START THE DAY THAT BACK TO THE SSW-SW
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO
THE SEA BREEZE. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RELAXED FOR
MONDAY WITH 10 KT WIND SPEEDS COMMON...EXCEPT NEAR SHORE WHERE THE
SEA-BREEZE COULD PUSH SPEEDS TO 10-15 KT. THE SFC PG IS PROGGED TO
TIGHTEN-SOME EARLY TUE THRU TUE NIGHT. THIS COULD RESULT IN A
SOLID 15 KT WIND SPEED. AS FOR SIGNIFICANT SEAS...THE LOCAL WATERS
WILL BE LOOKING AT 2 TO OCCASIONALLY 3 FT...WITH 4 TO 5 SECOND
WIND DRIVEN WAVES AND A 1 FOOT ESE 11 SECOND PERIOD GROUND SWELL
DUKING IT OUT TO WHICH DOMINATES.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...DURING THIS PERIOD...THE AREA WATERS WILL
LIE BETWEEN THE NE-SW ORIENTED SFC TROF OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...AND THE SFC RIDGING THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
BERMUDA HIGH WELL OFFSHORE FROM THE SE U.S....ACROSS THE FLORIDA
COAST. THIS WILL PREDOMINATELY PRODUCE A SW WIND DIRECTION THRU
THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE NOT AS PRONOUNCED...COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS...WITH THE PROGGED TIGHTENED SFC PG ACROSS THE AREA
WATERS WEDNESDAY THRU THURSDAY. WILL NOT ENTIRELY BUY THIS
OUTPUT...BUT WILL MENTION A SOLID 10-15 KT WIND SPEED THRU THE
PERIOD...POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 15-20 KT LATE THU.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FEET...POSSIBLY UP TO 4 FT LATER
THU. WIND DRIVEN WAVES AT 4 TO 5 SECOND PERIODS WILL DOMINATE THE
SIGNIFICANT SEAS. A LESS THAN 1 FOOT...11 SECOND PERIOD...ESE
GROUND SWELL TO REMAIN IDENTIFIABLE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY NOT BE RECORD-BREAKING
HEAT IT`S STILL THE FIRST TIME IN ALMOST 3 YEARS WE`VE HAD THESE
KIND OF TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST.
...MOST RECENT HOT TEMPERATURE OCCURRENCES...
97 98 99 100 101 102 103
WILMINGTON 6/20/14 7/27/12 7/27/12 7/27/12 7/27/12 6/30/12 6/30/12
MYRTLE BEACH 7/24/12 7/24/12 7/28/05 7/27/05 7/27/05 8/17/54 8/17/54
FLORENCE 9/02/14 9/02/14 9/02/14 7/09/14 7/26/12 7/09/12 7/01/12
THIS INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE GRAPHICALLY ON OUR FACEBOOK &
TWITTER PAGES.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DCH
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...RJD/MRR
CLIMATE...TRA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1014 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1014 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY OF
NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. EMBEDDED S/WV RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
MORNING THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN IS PUSHING EAST INTO WESTERN
MINNESOTA. ASSOCIATED RAINFALL AND T-STORMS SHOULD BE MOSTLY DONE
BY 17-18Z ACROSS MY SOUTHEAST AS THIS FEATURES EXITS OFF TO OUR
EAST AND AS THE BOUNDARY MIGRATES TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.
QUASI-ZONAL/CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TODAY AS A DEEP AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. HIGH RES MODELS
INCLUDING THE HRRR AND 4KM NMM WRF GENERATE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE POP 18Z-03Z THEN DRY
AFTERWARDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
MAIN CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE WERE TO ADJUST HOURLY POPS BASED ON
LATEST RADAR TRENDS. BACK EDGE OF PRECIP ACROSS WESTERN ND IS
PROGRESSING FASTER THAN MODELS DEPICTED...SO ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE IS REASONABLE WITH CONTINUING THIS
TREND...EVENTUALLY CLEARING OUR EASTERN CWA BY AROUND 18 OR 19Z.
SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS CONTINUE IN EASTERN MONTANA AND OUR
FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCES ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS SOME INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE AND HRRR GENERATES SOME
LIGHT PRECIP IN THIS AREA LATER IN THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS INVOLVE ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND
TRENDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS TAKING PLACE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94. ONE FAIRLY PERSISTENT LINE OF CONVECTION
HAS BEEN ONGOING FROM SIOUX/GRANT COUNTIES THROUGH EMMONS AND INTO
CENTRAL STUTSMAN. HEAVY RAIN OF 2 TO 3 INCHES IN MANY LOCATIONS
PER RADAR RESULTED IN FLOOD ADVISORIES BEING ISSUED. ANOTHER AREA
OF SHRA/TSRA MOVED INTO SOUTHWESTERN ND AND IS SLOWLY PROGRESSING
EASTWARD...ALTHOUGH THIS AREA IS TAKING ON A MORE STRATIFORM APPEARANCE
ON RADAR WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS PUSH THE WHOLE SYSTEM
EASTWARD...DRYING THE REGION OUT BY 00Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
NAM INDICATED SB CAPE OF 100-300 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE AHEAD OF SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT SAGS SOUTHWARD AND HAVE THEREFORE CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR THUNDER ACROSS THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...DRY AND COOLER WEATHER
EXPECTED TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES CONTINUE TO REMAIN
IN AGREEMENT ON A SHORTWAVE COMING ONSHORE TO THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST ON MONDAY PROPAGATING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE CONSENSUS IS FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH
LESSER COVERAGE NORTH. OVERALL INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL WITH
SEVERE WEATHER NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THEREAFTER...NEAR DAILY
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1014 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ND. MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN VFR
CATEGORY...ALTHOUGH KJMS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CLEAR THE ENTIRE
REGION BY MID EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JNS/NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
906 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 906 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOWING CLUSTER OF STORMS AND SHOWERS OVER
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ND MOVING INTO W CNTRL MN. HRRR HAS A
DECENT HANDLE ON STORM TRENDS AND WILL UPDATE POPS (AND INCREASE
IN SE ND) BASED ON ITS GUIDANCE. ALSO MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NW MN BY NOON TIME. SEVERE THREAT TONIGHT WILL
BE VERY DEPENDENT ON WHEN THIS CLUSTER MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN
VALLEY AND OVER THE GRANT CO MN AREA...WHICH WILL INHIBIT HEATING
FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY DESPITE HIGHER BULK SHEAR VALUES
EXPECTED IN THE LATE AFTN. WILL NOT ADDRESS BEYOND 18Z UNTIL MORE
12Z MODEL GUIDANCE COMES IN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
TSRA POTENTIAL TODAY AND TEMPERATURES MAIN CHALLENGES. MODELS
OVERALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SOUTHWARD SAGGING SFC COLD FRONT...ELEVATED BOUNDARY VCNTY
DAKOTAS BORDER REGION AND EASTWARD DRIFTING SFC LOW OVER N CENTRAL
SD ALL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA TODAY.
POSITION OF THESE BOUNDARIES AIDED BY ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER
JET AND MID LEVEL IMPULSES LIFTING NE TARGET THE SOUTHERN FA AS
BEST POTENTIAL FOR PCPN. THIS AFTERNOON THE SFC LOW SHOULD REACH
NE SD WITH BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SE FA. MODEST CAPE AND INSTABILITY
ALONG WITH RESPECTABLE SHEAR COULD RESULT IN A FEW SEVERE STORMS.
APPEARS THE BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH OF THE FA AFT 00Z SO SEVERE WINDOW
MAY BE LIMITED. TEMPERATURES WILL HINGE ON CLOUDS AS BEST PUSH OF
COLD ADVECTION DOESN`T ENTER THE PICTURE TIL LATER TONIGHT.
MOST RAIN SHOULD EXIT THE SE CLOSE TO 06Z. IN ITS WAKE GOOD PUSH
OF COLD ADVECTION WILL SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY MORNING.
COULD SEE SOME UPPER 40 MINIMUMS ACROSS THE NW BY MORNING.
MONDAY WILL BE DRY AND MUCH COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES BLO AVERAGE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S EXPECTED ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTH.
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE PROPAGATING
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AN ASSOCIATED BAND OF MAINLY RAIN
SHOULD GET INTO THE SW FA BY LATE AFTERNOON SPREADING EAST ACROSS
THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT. THUNDER CHANCES LOOK LIMITED WITH THIS
EVENT.
SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH NORTHWEST FLOW INTO
CENTRAL CANADA AND ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN STATES. LONG WAVE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA SHIFTS TO NEAR THE HUDSON BAY
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ZONAL FLOW SHIFT SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE GFS WAS FAST WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THE
GFS WAS ALSO FASTER THAN THE ECMWF THROUGH THU IN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM BUT THE GFS FALLS BACK INTO PHASE WITH THE ECMWF BY FRI AND
SAT. ALSO THE GFS WAS A FARTHER NORTHERN SOLUTION.
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE LAST COUPLE RUNS AND
FARTHER NORTH. WILL BLEND THE TWO MODELS.
HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED A DEGREE FOR WED...LITTLE CHANGE
THU...INCREASED A COUPLE DEGREE IN THE SOUTH FRI, AND INCREASED TWO
TO FIVE DEGREES ON SAT FROM YESTERDAYS FORECAST PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
BEST BET FOR TSTM OVERNIGHT IS IN FARGO WITH BEST BET FOR SHOWERS
SUNDAY IN FARGO. REST OF TAF SITES GENERALLY DRY...WITH GFK-BJI ON
NRN EDGE OF ANY PRECIP. EXPECT VFR SKIES THRU THE AREA. LIGHT
WINDS GRADUALLY NORTHWEST AS FRONT SLIPS THROUGH.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
637 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
MAIN CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE WERE TO ADJUST HOURLY POPS BASED ON
LATEST RADAR TRENDS. BACK EDGE OF PRECIP ACROSS WESTERN ND IS
PROGRESSING FASTER THAN MODELS DEPICTED...SO ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE IS REASONABLE WITH CONTINUING THIS
TREND...EVENTUALLY CLEARING OUR EASTERN CWA BY AROUND 18 OR 19Z.
SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS CONTINUE IN EASTERN MONTANA AND OUR
FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCES ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS SOME INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE AND HRRR GENERATES SOME
LIGHT PRECIP IN THIS AREA LATER IN THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS INVOLVE ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND
TRENDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS TAKING PLACE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94. ONE FAIRLY PERSISTENT LINE OF CONVECTION
HAS BEEN ONGOING FROM SIOUX/GRANT COUNTIES THROUGH EMMONS AND INTO
CENTRAL STUTSMAN. HEAVY RAIN OF 2 TO 3 INCHES IN MANY LOCATIONS
PER RADAR RESULTED IN FLOOD ADVISORIES BEING ISSUED. ANOTHER AREA
OF SHRA/TSRA MOVED INTO SOUTHWESTERN ND AND IS SLOWLY PROGRESSING
EASTWARD...ALTHOUGH THIS AREA IS TAKING ON A MORE STRATIFORM APPEARANCE
ON RADAR WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS PUSH THE WHOLE SYSTEM
EASTWARD...DRYING THE REGION OUT BY 00Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
NAM INDICATED SB CAPE OF 100-300 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE AHEAD OF SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT SAGS SOUTHWARD AND HAVE THEREFORE CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR THUNDER ACROSS THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...DRY AND COOLER WEATHER
EXPECTED TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES CONTINUE TO REMAIN
IN AGREEMENT ON A SHORTWAVE COMING ONSHORE TO THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST ON MONDAY PROPAGATING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE CONSENSUS IS FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTOMS ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH
LESSER COVERAGE NORTH. OVERALL INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL WITH
SEVERE WEATHER NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THEREAFTER...NEAR DAILY
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL ND...HAVING PUSHED EAST OF KDIK BY 11Z. MOST LOCATIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN VFR CATEGORY...ALTHOUGH KJMS WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE MORNING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL CLEAR THE ENTIRE REGION BY THIS EVENING WITH
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JNS
SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JNS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1024 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS/WSR-88D VAD WIND
PROFILES PLACE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES AND A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS
MORNING. AS OF 10 AM CDT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
REGIONAL WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS ALREADY INDICATING SOME WARM
ADVECTION RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS.
LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS STILL INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID SOUTH INTO THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OCCURRING ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. OVERALL FORECAST IS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE AND NO
UPDATES ANTICIPATED AT THIS MOMENT.
CJC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015/
DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. IS
EXTENDING ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE MIDSOUTH. QUIET ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPS RANGE FROM 70 TO 75 WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS.
TODAY...SIMILAR TO SATURDAY. EXPECTING SOME LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
THIS MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE BY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS CLIMBING TO AROUND 90. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE
SHOULD BE GREATEST ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS AND LESSER TOWARD THE
TN RIVER. THE HRRR SHOWS A SCENARIO SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH A
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE LOWER
MS VALLEY LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING...A LITTLE FURTHER WEST
THAN SATURDAYS ACTIVITY...PROBABLY DUE TO SLIGHTLY STRONGER UPPER
RIDGE. A STRONG STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
TONIGHT...BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION DURING THE EVENING WILL BE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER. MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WILL
DISSIPATE BY MID EVENING WITH ANOTHER MILD NIGHT ON TAP. LOWS 70
TO 75.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE ACROSS
THE REGION SO AFTERNOON/EVENING COVERAGE SHOULD BE A LITTLE LESS.
BEST CHANCES WILL BE AT THE NW EDGES OF THE FORECAST AREAS WHILE
LOCATIONS NEAR THE TN RIVER AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WILL BE
MOSTLY RAINFREE. HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN
RESPONSE TO THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER RIDGE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS DEALING
WITH THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE WESTERN GULF. THE
NAM BRINGS THE SYSTEM THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS AND AND INTO SOUTHERN
MISSOURI TUESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE THE GFS BRINGS IT FURTHER WEST
INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS AND EVENTUALLY TRACKS IT INTO THE MIDSOUTH ON
THU. THE ECMWF IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR THOUGH A LITTLE SLOWER. AS A
RESULT THE FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN SINCE THIS FEATURE WILL
PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN PRECIP CHANCES BY MIDDLE INTO THE END
OF THE WEEK. FOR NOW DISCOUNTED THE FAST NAM AND WILL GO WITH A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. WARM...MOSTLY LOWER
90S...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS NW SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
EXPECT THIS SYSTEM TO INFLUENCE THE MIDSOUTH MORE TOWARD THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AND WENT WITH CHANCE POPS AREAWIDE. CERTAINLY COULD BE
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM AS MODEL PWS ARE GREATER
THAN 2 INCHES AS IT MOVES THROUGH. TEMPS THU/FRI SHOULD BE A
LITTLE COOLER WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODELS HAVE THE SYSTEM EXITING THE REGION BY
THE WEEKEND SO EXPECT A RETURN TO MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION WITH DIMINISHING COVERAGE. TEMPS CLIMBING BACK INTO
THE 90S.
SJM
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS
PATCHY STRATUS CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL YIELD OCCASIONAL IFR/MVFR
CIGS WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING AT MEM...JBR AND MKL. OTHERWISE CIGS
WILL BE MAINLY VFR WITH BEST THREAT FOR VCTS AT MEM AND JBR LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVENING. SOUTH WINDS NOT AS STRONG
TODAY WITH HIGHEST GUSTS AT JBR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
JAB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
621 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. IS
EXTENDING ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE MIDSOUTH. QUIET ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPS RANGE FROM 70 TO 75 WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS.
TODAY...SIMILAR TO SATURDAY. EXPECTING SOME LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
THIS MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE BY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS CLIMBING TO AROUND 90. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE
SHOULD BE GREATEST ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS AND LESSER TOWARD THE
TN RIVER. THE HRRR SHOWS A SCENARIO SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH A
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE LOWER
MS VALLEY LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING...A LITTLE FURTHER WEST
THAN SATURDAYS ACTIVITY...PROBABLY DUE TO SLIGHTLY STRONGER UPPER
RIDGE. A STRONG STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
TONIGHT...BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION DURING THE EVENING WILL BE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER. MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WILL
DISSIPATE BY MID EVENING WITH ANOTHER MILD NIGHT ON TAP. LOWS 70
TO 75.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE ACROSS
THE REGION SO AFTERNOON/EVENING COVERAGE SHOULD BE A LITTLE LESS.
BEST CHANCES WILL BE AT THE NW EDGES OF THE FORECAST AREAS WHILE
LOCATIONS NEAR THE TN RIVER AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WILL BE
MOSTLY RAINFREE. HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN
RESPONSE TO THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER RIDGE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS DEALING
WITH THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE WESTERN GULF. THE
NAM BRINGS THE SYSTEM THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS AND AND INTO SOUTHERN
MISSOURI TUESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE THE GFS BRINGS IT FURTHER WEST
INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS AND EVENTUALLY TRACKS IT INTO THE MIDSOUTH ON
THU. THE ECMWF IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR THOUGH A LITTLE SLOWER. AS A
RESULT THE FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN SINCE THIS FEATURE WILL
PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN PRECIP CHANCES BY MIDDLE INTO THE END
OF THE WEEK. FOR NOW DISCOUNTED THE FAST NAM AND WILL GO WITH A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. WARM...MOSTLY LOWER
90S...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS NW SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
EXPECT THIS SYSTEM TO INFLUENCE THE MIDSOUTH MORE TOWARD THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AND WENT WITH CHANCE POPS AREAWIDE. CERTAINLY COULD BE
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM AS MODEL PWS ARE GREATER
THAN 2 INCHES AS IT MOVES THROUGH. TEMPS THU/FRI SHOULD BE A
LITTLE COOLER WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODELS HAVE THE SYSTEM EXITING THE REGION BY
THE WEEKEND SO EXPECT A RETURN TO MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION WITH DIMINISHING COVERAGE. TEMPS CLIMBING BACK INTO
THE 90S.
SJM
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS
PATCHY STRATUS CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL YIELD OCCASIONAL IFR/MVFR
CIGS WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING AT MEM...JBR AND MKL. OTHERWISE CIGS
WILL BE MAINLY VFR WITH BEST THREAT FOR VCTS AT MEM AND JBR LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVENING. SOUTH WINDS NOT AS STRONG
TODAY WITH HIGHEST GUSTS AT JBR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
JAB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1045 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.UPDATE...DEEP MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA EARLIER THIS MORNING LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF BANDS OF HEAVY
STREAMER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35/I-37.
TRENDS OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO IN THE CONVECTION NORTH OF I-10
IN THIS AREA HAVE BEEN DOWN AS CONVERGENCE WEAKENS AND FORCING
LIFTS NORTHEAST. BETWEEN 4-9 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS
CENTRAL GUADALUPE COUNTY...WITH ONGOING FLASH FLOOD ISSUES ALONG
GERONIMO CREEK FEEDING INTO THE GUADALUPE RIVER.
TRENDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON ARE GOING TO FAVOR RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO
POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THIS
EARLY MORNING RAINFALL...AS BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ALLOW FOR
DE-STABILIZATION OF A VERY MOIST AIRMASS. 12Z CRP SOUNDING
INDICATED AN UNSTABLE PROFILE ALONG WITH PWATS NOW NEAR 2 INCHES.
ALREADY SEEING EVIDENCE OF RE-DEVELOPMENT THIS OCCURRING NEAR A
SAN ANTONIO/BANDERA TO BEEVILLE LINE. 14Z RUN OF HRRR INITIALIZED
CLOSER THAN MANY OF THE OTHER HI RESOLUTION MODELS...AND SHOULD
THIS VERIFY THE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT SOUTH AND WEST COULD MOVE
BACK OVER AREAS TO THE NORTHEAST THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL
THIS MORNING. FOR THIS REASON...AND OUT OF ABUNDANCE OF
CAUTION...WILL MAINTAIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONFIGURATION AS IS
FOR NOW AND RE-EVALUATE ADDITION OR REMOVAL OF COUNTIES IN THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE AS TRENDS DEVELOP.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 717 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015/
AVIATION.../12Z TAF CYCLE/
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ONGOING ALONG WITH SHRA AND SCT TSRA FOR KAUS
WITH VCSH FOR KSAT/KSSF. AN AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
KAUS THROUGH 815AM LOCAL TIME FOR LIGHTNING IN THE VICINITY.
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS LIKELY NEAR KSAT/KSSF THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. A LULL IN ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
HOURS BUT NEW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND WAS
HANDLED WITH A TEMPO GROUP IN ALL TAFS EXCEPT FOR KDRT. TSRA/SHRA
COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY QUICKLY. MOST
ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. A NEW ROUND OF
SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY EARLY MONDAY MORNING APPROACHING KAUS FROM THE
EAST. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AROUND 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT
AT TIMES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS ARE THE ONGOING CONVECTION THIS MORNING THAT HAS
LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND EXPECTED ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
A SEMI-ORGANIZED TSTORM LINE CURRENTLY EXTENTS FROM KERR ARCING BACK
SOUTHWEST INTO MAVERICK COUNTY ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THIS LINE IS
ORIENTED MORE EAST TO WEST AND HAS A SLOWER FORWARD MOTION ALLOWING
FOR HIGHER RAINFALL RATES LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
HOURLY RAINFALL RATES NEAR 1-2" ARE OCCURRING OVER UVALDE...ZAVALA
AND MAVERICK THAT WILL CONTINUE TO COMPOUND ANY LOCAL FLOODING
ISSUES. THIS LINE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH 5-6AM
WITH OVERALL RAINFALL RATES DECREASING. THE SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG
AND EAST OF US HWY 281 WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THE MORNING HOURS AS THE LOW-LVL JET OF 35-40 KT CONTINUES PER KEWX
VAD WIND PROFILE.
BY 6-9AM...FEEL THE LINE OUT WEST WILL HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED BUT
WILL LEAVE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO BE A LATER FOCUSING TRIGGER FOR
MORE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO AT THIS TIME...THE SCT ACTIVITY
THAT IS NOW ON GOING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AND REGENERATE INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS HEATING TAKES PLACE. WITH LITTLE TO NO CIN...SHALLOW
SHOWERS SHOULD BE QUITE NUMEROUS THIS AFTN. ONCE OUTFLOWS BEGIN TO
PROPAGATE LIKE YESTERDAY...FEEL THESE COLLISIONS AND THE POSSIBLE
LARGER OUTFLOW FROM THE MAIN LINE COULD AID IN PULSE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. MOST SHOULD STAY SUB-SEVERE WITH PROGGED 2000 J/KG AND
WEAK SHEAR /20KT 0-6 KM/ BUT SOME WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH AND SMALL
HAIL COULD BE POSSIBLE. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR ALSO AND WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE HWO. ANOTHER MORE
POTENT ROUND OF TSTORMS SHOULD AGAIN FIRE OVER THE BIG BEND AND WEST
TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR IF
THE SOUTHERN FRINGE MAKES IT INTO VAL VERDE BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
MORE LIMITED THAN CURRENT CONDITIONS THIS TIME TOMORROW.
FOR MONDAY...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING IN THE MORNING
FOR EASTERN AREAS AS THE FIRST OUTER BANDS OF A TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE INFLUENCE THE REGION. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO MOVE INLAND WITH GREATEST SHOWER FOCUS WEST OF US HWY 83
AND ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. OVERALL TOTALS THROUGH MONDAY
SHOULD REMAIN BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES IN LOCALIZED AREAS WITH SOME AREAS
RECEIVING LESS.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
POTENTIALLY MODERATE TO HIGH IMPACTS FROM FLASH AND RIVER FLOODING
COULD BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST
OF I-35...ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN COUNTIES AS A POSSIBLE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE PASSES CLOSE TO THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD RANGE
FROM 2-4 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 5-6 INCHES DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. THIS WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.
GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS ALL AGREE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK
TROPICAL SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF AND TOWARDS THE
TEXAS COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS POINT...IT IS NOT EXPECTED THAT
A STRONG CYCLONE GIVEN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND OVERALL
SHEAR SET-UP. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION BUT THE
OVERALL HAZARDS WILL BE DISCUSSED GIVEN THE MOST LIKELY POSSIBILITY.
THE OP GFS IS MORE WEST TOWARDS BAFFIN BAY WITH EC TOWARDS MATAGORDA
BAY AND NAM FARTHER WEST TOWARDS HOUSTON. GFS ENSEMBLE TRACKS FAVOR
MORE OF AN EC SOLUTION AND FEEL THIS IS THE BEST CONCENSUS AS IT
TRACKS INLAND OVER FAR EASTERN ZONES. THIS POSSIBLE TRACK WOULD
FAVOR HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION. MOST GUIDANCE AGREES THAT HIGHEST TOTALS WILL LIKELY
FALL EAST OF LAVACA/FAYETTE COUNTIES TOWARDS HOUSTON. HOWEVER, FAR
EAST ZONES WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST RISK FOR MULTIPLE PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN. WITH THE SURFACE LOW COMING ASHORE NEAR MID-DAY TUESDAY...THIS
WILL BE THE BEGINNING WINDOW FOR THESE HEAVY RAIN PERIODS TO OCCUR.
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE TIME FRAME WITH
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF IMPACT WEATHER FOR EASTERN ZONES AS HEAVY RAIN
COULD SET UP OVER THIS AREA. WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED 6
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THESE VALUES WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON THE
SURFACE LOW TRACK AND ANY DEVIATION LEFT/WEST COULD RESULT IN MORE
RAINFALL. GLOBAL MODELS DO INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL (HIGHER THAN AMOUNTS
MENTIONED ABOVE) AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL JUST EAST OF OUR AREA AND
TRENDS WILL NEED TO MONITORED CLOSELY.
THE H5 PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A TROUGH WEAKNESS CENTERED
BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGHS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK THAT WILL
ALLOW FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BY THE
WEEKEND...SLIGHTLY STRONGER RIDGING SHOULD SHIFT OVER THE REGION AND
REDUCE RAIN CHANCE TO ONLY 20-30% DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 90 73 88 73 86 / 80 20 60 40 60
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 89 72 87 72 86 / 80 20 60 40 60
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 89 73 89 73 88 / 80 20 60 40 60
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 88 72 87 71 85 / 70 20 50 30 60
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 92 75 92 75 93 / 20 30 20 20 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 88 73 87 72 85 / 80 20 60 40 60
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 89 74 90 74 90 / 30 20 40 20 40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 88 72 88 73 86 / 80 20 60 40 60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 88 74 88 74 85 / 80 30 70 40 80
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 89 74 89 75 88 / 80 20 50 30 50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 90 74 90 75 90 / 80 20 50 30 50
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
ATASCOSA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...COMAL...
DE WITT...FAYETTE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...
KENDALL...LAVACA...LEE...TRAVIS...WILLIAMSON...WILSON.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TREADWAY
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
642 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS ARE SLOWLY DETERIORATING TO MVFR IN LIGHT FOG OVER
PARTS OF THE REGION AND THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING AT LBB AND PVW AROUND 14Z SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. SKYCAM
AT PVW ALREADY SHOWS SHALLOW FOG /MIFG/ WHICH COULD THICKEN TO
LIFR AT TIMES THRU 15Z. CDS LOOKS TO AVOID THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF
THESE MVFR CIGS FOR NOW.
BY THIS EVENING...THERE IS YET AGAIN A HIGH PROBABILITY FOR A
SQUALL LINE TO SWEEP SOUTHEAST AND AFFLICT ALL TERMINALS WITH LOW
VISBYS...STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOW CIGS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015/
SHORT TERM...
WIDESPREAD CLOUD DEBRIS FROM LAST NIGHT/S MCS WAS UNDERGOING
GRADUAL EROSION THIS MORNING FROM W-E. DESPITE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
SOUTH OF A WEAK CLOSED LOW...ADDITIONAL ATTEMPTS AT PRECIP HAVE
BEEN SUPPRESSED BY OVERWHELMING SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE
LARGE MCS. NEAR-TERM QPF ON ALL 00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS WAS VASTLY
OVERDONE IN COVERAGE WITH ALMOST NO SEMBLANCE OF THE MCS WHICH
CONTINUES TO OUR EAST AT 08Z...SO THE PRECIP FORECAST BENEFITS
FROM A HEAVY DOSE OF THE MORE REALISTIC HRRR AND VARIOUS
EXPERIMENTAL WRF MODELS.
POPS THRU 18Z HAVE BEEN DROPPED OVER MOST AREAS AS SUFFICIENT LIFT
IS JUST NOT IN THE CARDS. THIS THEME SHOULD CHANGE LATER TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS A TRAILING VORT LOBE ROTATES SEWD ACROSS THE
REGION SOUTHWEST OF A 700-500MB LOW. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT APPEARS
TO FAVOR THE WESTERN PANHANDLE NEAR THE VORT CENTER WITH
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH IN EASTERN NM.
MUCH OF OUR FOCUS WILL BE ON THE FORMER AS THE MID-LEVEL FLOW
VEERS FROM W TO NW. CAPE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE FORECAST TO BE
EVEN LESS THAN YESTERDAY...BUT VALUES ARE STILL SUFFICIENT TO
FOSTER SOME PULSY SEVERE EVENTS ESPECIALLY IF OUTFLOWS CONSOLIDATE
AND GIVE RISE TO ANOTHER NOCTURNAL MCS AS IS PROGGED BY MOST
EXPERIMENTAL WRF RUNS. POPS WERE RAMPED UP TO HIGH LIKELIES THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT WE/LL RESTRICT THE SEVERE WIND AND
HAIL MENTION TO THE HWO AS THESE THREATS LOOK TO BE VERY ISOLATED
AND MORE MARGINAL THAN RECENT DAYS.
LONG TERM...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE DURING THE DAY MONDAY BUT DIFFER ON HOW FAR SOUTH IT
WILL MAKE IT. SINCE THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE SOME LOW LEVEL LIFT
AND CONVERGENCE...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
OUTFLOW FROM THE STORMS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PUSH THE FRONT FURTHER
SOUTH INTO OUR AREA BUT THE TREND OF LOWERING THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR AVAILABLE WILL CONTINUE. ALSO IMPACTING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON MONDAY WILL BE HOW THE POSSIBLE NOCTURNAL
MCS MENTIONED ABOVE DEVELOPS. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE
FOR THE CAPROCK WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT BUT WILL NOT PUT MENTION OF SEVERE IN AT THIS TIME.
TUESDAY IS A BIT TRICKY FOR POPS AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A
WEAK CLOSED LOW OR TROF AXIS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE REMNANT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE IN THE REGION. THE FRONT DOES LOOK TO
MIX OUT AND RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL BRING
SLIGHTLY HIGHER SURFACE MOISTURE LEVELS BACK INTO PLAY. HOWEVER...
SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN RATHER WEAK AND MAX CAPE VALUES REMAIN AT OR
UNDER 1000 J/KG SO SEVERE THREAT LOOK LOW. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
GOING THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY BUT IT APPEARS THAT WE SHOULD
FINALLY START TO DRY OUT AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES DROP BY TUESDAY
NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN LOW FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST AS WE STAY ON THE EAST SIDE OF AN ELONGATED
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THERE ARE SOME HINTS
THAT A FEW SHORTWAVES COULD RIDE AROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND
MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA IN WEAK NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WHICH COULD BRING A FEW EVENINGS OF ISOLATED STORMS. THERE
REMAINS TOO MUCH VARIABILITY TO FAVOR ANY ONE DAY OVER ANOTHER FOR
INCREASED POPS MID TO LATE WEEK BUT IT APPEARS THAT BOTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY COULD BOTH SEE SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BEFORE FINALLY WARMING BACK UP FOR THE LAST HALF OF THIS FORECAST
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS A BIT OVER THE AREA. RECENT RAINFALL WILL HELP
TO KEEP THINGS FROM HEATING UP TOO FAST BUT THE FLIP SIDE WILL BE
SOME PRETTY MUGGY AFTERNOONS LATE WEEK. ONLY OTHER THING TO WATCH
WILL BE A POSSIBLE COLD FRONT FOR THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
THAT COULD BRING A RETURN OF POPS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING THIS AS A
POSSIBILITY...WILL WATCH AND SEE HOW THE NEXT SEVERAL RUNS EVOLVE
BEFORE MAKING MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
JORDAN
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
406 AM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HUDSPETH COUNTY
WILL RESULT IN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY AND VERY WARM
WITH A SPRINKLING OF 100 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS. A TROUGH ALOFT DROPPING SOUTH OVER NEW MEXICO ON MONDAY
WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL EAST FLOW AND BRING CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE
BACK IN. THIS WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOCAL AREAS OF FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND DRYING THE
AREA OUT. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS TO PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE THE BORDERLAND WILL BECOME DRY AND HOT MOST OF THE
LOWLAND SITES SURPASSING THE 100 DEGREE MARK BY SEVERAL DEGREES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH WHICH HAD BEEN SITTING OVER THE GREAT BASIN EXTENDINGTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS FINALLY STARTING TO SAG SOUTH OVER NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO. STILL A SLOW PROCESS AND THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE ALONG OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN BOUNDARIES OF THE CWA (1+
INCH PWS JUST EAST OF THE CWA). LOW POPS AGAIN TODAY FOR THE
GILA/BLACK RANGE REGION...EASTERN OTERO COUNTY...AND HUDSPETH
COUNTY. HRRR HAD BEEN A BIT BULLISH WITH EASTERN CWA QPF THIS
AFTERNOON BUT LATEST RUN (08Z) SHOWS WEST WIND PUSH FLUSHING MUCH
OF THE HIGHER DEW POINTS OUT JUST EAST OF THE CWA BY AROUND 20Z
WITH VERY LITTLE QPF THRU 23Z. IN FACT IT NOW HAS HIGHEST QPFS
OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK RANGE.
OTHERWISE MODELS STILL ON COURSE FOR DROPPING UPPER TROUGH DOWN
EASTERN NEW MEXICO TONIGHT AND ALLOWING MOIST EAST SURGE TO PUSH
IN OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR MOUNTAINS TO FIRE OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
BY MID DAY AND THEN DEVELOP OVER MOST OF THE LOWLAND EAST OF THE
DIVIDE BY LATE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE PARAMETERS WILL INCREASE
FURTHER ON TUESDAY WITH PW`S OVER AN INCH MANY AREAS. SHOULD BE
THE BEST DAY AREA WIDE FOR PRECIP. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND LOCAL FLOODING.
BY WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND EASTERN PACIFIC HIGH WILL BEGIN
BUILDING RIDGE OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO. H5 TEMPS WILL WARM
ABOUT A DEGREE EACH DAY...STRENGTHENING THE CAP THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY FLUSH OUT FROM THE WEST
BUT WILL TEND TO PERSIST OVER THE SACS SO KEPT LOW POPS IN THERE
THROUGH FRIDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND HEAT. H85
TEMPS SUGGEST TRIPLE DIGITS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR THE
LOWLANDS...AND HIGHS ON THE WEEKEND COULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
100.
&&
.AVIATION...14/12Z-15/12Z.
GENLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AFT 18Z...OVER MOUNTAIN
AREAS AND EAST OF AN ALAMOGORDO-HUECO TANKS LINE...FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE WITH BKN100CB VSBYS 3-5SM. GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE
NEAR THESE STORMS. WEST WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS TODAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RESIDUAL MOISTURE COULD FUEL A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN AND OVER HUDSPETH COUNTY. AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING
SOUTH OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL CREATE MOIST EAST FLOW AND
INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND PEAKING ON TUESDAY.
HEAVY RAINFALL/LOCAL FLOODING COULD RESULT ON TUESDAY. MIN RH`S
WILL REMAIN AROUND 20% LOWLANDS AND 30-40% MOUNTAIN ZONES THROUGH
TUESDAY. BUILDING RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL GRADUALLY DRY THE AREA OUT
AND DEVELOP HOT TEMPERATURES. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD STILL
SPRING UP OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS THROUGH FRIDAY. OTHERWISE
FUEL DRYING OUT CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND. MIN RH`S LOWERING TO
10-15% LOWLANDS AND 15-25% MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO
ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FIRE CONDITIONS BY THE WEEKEND
COULD APPROACH CRITICAL BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW RED
FLAG CRITERIA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 100 72 98 75 / 10 10 20 20
SIERRA BLANCA 98 63 93 70 / 10 10 20 30
LAS CRUCES 98 62 97 70 / 10 0 20 20
ALAMOGORDO 99 63 96 68 / 10 10 20 30
CLOUDCROFT 76 46 72 49 / 30 10 40 50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 97 63 94 69 / 10 10 20 20
SILVER CITY 88 57 87 59 / 10 10 10 20
DEMING 99 60 98 67 / 10 10 0 20
LORDSBURG 98 61 96 67 / 10 10 0 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 99 67 97 73 / 10 0 20 20
DELL CITY 98 60 93 66 / 20 10 20 20
FORT HANCOCK 100 66 97 72 / 10 10 20 20
LOMA LINDA 96 63 91 67 / 10 10 20 30
FABENS 97 65 98 72 / 10 10 20 20
SANTA TERESA 98 66 97 71 / 10 0 20 20
WHITE SANDS HQ 99 65 96 71 / 10 10 20 20
JORNADA RANGE 99 60 96 66 / 10 10 20 20
HATCH 100 61 97 67 / 10 10 20 20
COLUMBUS 99 64 98 71 / 0 0 0 20
OROGRANDE 99 66 95 72 / 10 10 20 20
MAYHILL 84 50 79 53 / 30 20 40 50
MESCALERO 84 49 82 51 / 20 10 40 50
TIMBERON 84 47 80 52 / 20 10 40 40
WINSTON 86 54 85 59 / 20 20 20 30
HILLSBORO 94 59 94 62 / 10 10 20 20
SPACEPORT 99 59 96 65 / 10 10 20 20
LAKE ROBERTS 87 52 86 55 / 20 20 20 40
HURLEY 91 57 90 60 / 10 10 10 10
CLIFF 96 50 95 54 / 10 10 10 10
MULE CREEK 93 48 92 52 / 10 10 0 10
FAYWOOD 92 59 91 62 / 10 10 10 20
ANIMAS 100 61 97 67 / 0 10 0 10
HACHITA 99 59 98 67 / 0 0 0 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 100 59 97 65 / 0 0 0 10
CLOVERDALE 93 58 91 63 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
17 HEFNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
244 PM MST SUN JUN 14 2015
.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF GILA COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...SKIES WILL BE SUNNY
WITH A CONTINUED WARMING TREND. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME
SITUATED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS WEEK LEADING TO SEASONABLY
HOT CONDITIONS. MANY LOWER DESERTS LOCATIONS WILL SEE A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF TEMPERATURES ABOVE 110 DEGREES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA AND ARE SLOWLY MAKING THEIR WAY SOUTHWARD. LATEST SPC
MESOANALYSIS AND RAP FORECAST INDICATES AN UNFAVORABLE...STABLE
ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ASIDE
FROM SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS ACROSS MARICOPA/LA
PAZ COUNTIES...IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH THESE SHOWERS. HRRR
INDICATES THEY WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS EVENING...LOCAL WRFS...UA
WRF...AND SPC SSEO ALL ADVERTISE SIMILAR SOLUTIONS AND I HAVE NO
REASON TO ARGUE AGAINST THESE DATA.
THE BIG STORY THIS WEEK WILL BE THE RETURN OF 110+ DEGREE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. 12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE
RUN-TO-RUN TREND OF INCREASING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION AND
NEARLY ALL AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS POINTING TO A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF DANGEROUSLY HOT TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THIS IS THE FIRST SUBSTANTIAL
HEAT WAVE OF THE YEAR AND THAT TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN AT OR BELOW
NORMAL FOR SUCH A LONG TIME...I ELECTED TO ISSUE AN EXCESSIVE HEAT
WATCH FOR MOST LOWER DESERT LOCALES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOT ON MONDAY...THE IMPACTS WILL LIKELY NOT BE
REALIZED UNTIL TUESDAY AND BEYOND. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 110-115
RANGE WILL BE COMMON AND THESE NUMBERS ARE SUPPORTED BY A PLETHORA OF
ENSEMBLE DATA. THE ONLY SILVER LINING TO BE FOUND THIS WEEK IS THAT
OVERNIGHT LOWS WON`T BE IN THE 90S DURING THIS EVENT. OUTLYING DESERT
LOCALES SHOULD BE ABLE TO FALL INTO THE MID 70S WHEREAS THE URBAN
CORE OF PHOENIX WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW/MID 80S. SOME RELIEF...BUT NOT
MUCH.
IT`S ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME MIXED SYMBOLS IN THE GUIDANCE THAT
FAR OUT. SOME DATA SUGGEST TEMPS RETREATING BELOW THE 110 MARK
WHEREAS OTHER DATA MAINTAINS 110-112 THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. EITHER
WAY...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL BE LOOKING AT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT
LEAST 18Z MONDAY. A FEW HIGH BASED CU MAY BE SEEN OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...AND ANY THUNDERSTORM THREAT/OUTFLOW WILL REMAIN DISTANT OF
THOSE AREA TERMINALS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN VERY HOT DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS IN THE SIGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
QUICKLY TRANSITION THE HAINES INDEX TO A 5-6/MODERATE-HIGH...AND
ELEVATE FIRE DANGER AND EXPECTED FIRE BEHAVIOR. WINDS WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE WITH LOCAL AFTERNOON RIDGETOP GUSTS DURING THE PEAK
HEATING HOURS EACH DAY...FOLLOWED BY FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY MOST
LOCATIONS.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR AZZ020>023-025>028.
CA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR CAZ031>033.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS/LEINS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
146 PM MST SUN JUN 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF GILA COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...SKIES WILL BE SUNNY
WITH A CONTINUED WARMING TREND. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME
SITUATED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS WEEK LEADING TO SEASONABLY
HOT CONDITIONS. MANY LOWER DESERTS LOCATIONS WILL SEE A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF TEMPERATURES ABOVE 110 DEGREES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA AND ARE SLOWLY MAKING THEIR WAY SOUTHWARD. LATEST SPC
MESOANALYSIS AND RAP FORECAST INDICATES AN UNFAVORABLE...STABLE
ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ASIDE
FROM SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS ACROSS MARICOPA/LA
PAZ COUNTIES...IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH THESE SHOWERS. HRRR
INDICATES THEY WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS EVENING...LOCAL WRFS...UA
WRF...AND SPC SSEO ALL ADVERTISE SIMILAR SOLUTIONS AND I HAVE NO
REASON TO ARGUE AGAINST THESE DATA.
THE BIG STORY THIS WEEK WILL BE THE RETURN OF 110+ DEGREE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. 12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE
RUN-TO-RUN TREND OF INCREASING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION AND
NEARLY ALL AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS POINTING TO A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF DANGEROUSLY HOT TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THIS IS THE FIRST SUBSTANTIAL
HEAT WAVE OF THE YEAR AND THAT TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN AT OR BELOW
NORMAL FOR SUCH A LONG TIME...I ELECTED TO ISSUE AN EXCESSIVE HEAT
WATCH FOR MOST LOWER DESERT LOCALES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOT ON MONDAY...THE IMPACTS WILL LIKELY NOT BE
REALIZED UNTIL TUESDAY AND BEYOND. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 110-115
RANGE WILL BE COMMON AND THESE NUMBERS ARE SUPPORTED BY A PLETHORA OF
ENSEMBLE DATA. THE ONLY SILVER LINING TO BE FOUND THIS WEEK IS THAT
OVERNIGHT LOWS WON`T BE IN THE 90S DURING THIS EVENT. OUTLYING DESERT
LOCALES SHOULD BE ABLE TO FALL INTO THE MID 70S WHEREAS THE URBAN
CORE OF PHOENIX WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW/MID 80S. SOME RELIEF...BUT NOT
MUCH.
IT`S ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME MIXED SYMBOLS IN THE GUIDANCE THAT
FAR OUT. SOME DATA SUGGEST TEMPS RETREATING BELOW THE 110 MARK
WHEREAS OTHER DATA MAINTAINS 110-112 THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. EITHER
WAY...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL BE LOOKING AT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CLEAR SKIES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AROUND NOON BEFORE
SOME HIGH BASED CU DEVELOPS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH AND EAST
OF PHOENIX. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS TOO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT THESE WILL NOT
AFFECT AREA TERMINALS. WINDS FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE LIGHT AND
FOLLOW DIURNAL PATTERNS...BUT SOME AFTERNOON BREEZINESS IS LIKELY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
INCREASING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL JUNE
PATTERN OF DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
AND DECREASING HUMIDITIES. SINGLE DIGIT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL BE
COMMON ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEK...WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES IN
MOST SPOTS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE ALTHOUGH SOME OCCASIONAL
LATE AFTERNOON RIDGETOP BREEZINESS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH PEAK HEATING
OF THE DAY.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR AZZ020>023-025>028.
CA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR CAZ031>033.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS/LEINS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
923 AM PDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT
IN GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OFF OF THE WEST COAST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:25 AM PDT SUNDAY... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
A WIDESPREAD STRATUS FIELD OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTHWARD AS BAJA CALIFORNIA. WEAKENING
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND A SUBTLE SOUTHERLY SURGE YESTERDAY HELPED TO
DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER... WITH THE FORT ORD PROFILER REPORTING
A MARINE LAYER THICKNESS OF NEARLY 2500 FT. THE SOUTHERLY APPROACH
BROUGHT AN EARLY RETURN OF COASTAL STRATUS TO THE MONTEREY BAY
REGION YESTERDAY... BUT HELPED TO SHIELD THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY
TO AN EXTENT. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER IN AND AROUND THE BAY AREA THIS MORNING BECAUSE OF FEWER
OVERNIGHT CLOUDS TO BLANKET THE AREA AND A COOLER AIR MASS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL AND TREND DOWNWARD TODAY
BEFORE BOTTOMING OUT TOMORROW WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED MONDAY.
THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY UNCHANGED OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... AS A SERIES OF WEAK HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE
DISTURBANCES MODULATE A QUASIZONAL FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AFTER MONDAY WITH MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER... A DEEP MARINE LAYER... AND STRONG ONSHORE FLOW.
.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 04:07 AM PDT SUNDAY...A DEEPENING UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA HAS COMPRESSED
THE RIDGE OFF OF THE WEST COAST DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. AS A
RESULT...ZONAL FLOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER CALIFORNIA AND IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE START OF THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK.
MEANWHILE...ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE NEAR THE SURFACE
AND THE MARINE LAYER HAS DEEPENED TO AROUND 2000 FT. THIS PATTERN
WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD COASTAL CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG DURING THE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS THAT WILL BURN-OFF INLAND BY LATE
MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY COASTAL DRIZZLE AS WELL GIVEN THE
DEEPENING MARINE LAYER. WITH THIS AND THE PERSISTENT NORTH-
NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLEST NEAR THE
COAST THROUGH MIDWEEK WHILE INLAND AREAS WARM INTO THE 80S AND 90S
AWAY FROM THE COAST.
THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN ALOFT THROUGH THE WORKWEEK. PREVIOUS TRENDS HAVE
POINTED TOWARD A RIDGE BUILDING OFF OF THE WEST COAST BY LATE WEEK
THAT WOULD RESULT IN AN INLAND WARMING TREND. HOWEVER...THE LATEST
GFS/ECMWF NOW POINT TOWARD CONTINUED ZONAL FLOW WITH THE BUILDING
RIDGE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. FOR NOW...WILL FORECAST A SLIGHT
WARMING TREND LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER
WILL LIKELY PERSIST WITH CONDITIONS TYPICAL OF MID/LATE JUNE.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:46 AM PDT SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD STRATUS ALONG
THE COAST AND LOCALLY INLAND THIS MORNING. CIGS ARE GENERALLY IN
THE MVFR RANGE WITH A FEW POCKETS OF IFR. ROLLING BACK TO THE
COAST LATER THIS MORNING WITH VFR EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS
WILL RETURN TONIGHT.
VICINITY OF KSFO...TRICKY INSIDE SF BAY THIS MORNING AS PATCHY CIG
ARE THROUGH GG AND INTO OAK/HWD. GOING OUT ON A LIMB HERE...BUT
WILL FOLLOW THE HIRES HRRR AND KEEP THE CLOUD FREE DONUT AROUND
KSFO THERE.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...MVFR CIGS AROUND 1500 FEET THROUGH 17-18Z.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR. CLEARING BY 18Z.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 04:07 AM PDT SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL
PRODUCE STEEP WIND WAVE AND FRESH SWELL. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM NOON
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM NOON
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...SF BAY
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: DRP
AVIATION: BELL
MARINE: MM
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
403 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NIGHT...THEN
GETS NEAR TO OUR OVER FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE ON
MODAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG IT. THE FRONT EXITS TO
THE EAST AS A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BRIEFLY BY HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL THEN FOLLOW...THE
NEXT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AND THEN ANOTHER LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY FOLLOW EACH OF THESE SYSTEMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS PER WATER VAPER AND 40KM RAP ANALYSIS REGION REMAINS TO THE
EAST OF THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE AXIS AS OF 19Z...UNTIL THE RIDGE
AXIS SLIDES TO OUR EAST...WHICH IT SHOULD LAT THIS EVENING
W/OVERNIGHT E...PRECIPITATION WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE IN TO THE AREA.
ONCE THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO THE EAST...GET INCREASING ISENTOPIC
LIFT ON THE I-295 TO I-310 SURFACES...AS WELL AS INCREASING
INSTABILITY ALOFT FROM W TO E WITH SHOWALTERS GRADUALLY DECREASING
TO 2 OR LESS TONIGHT. SO EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP FROM W TO E...WITH
A CHANCE OF THUNDER AS WELL. BEST FORCING REALLY DOES NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING/AFTER MIDNIGHT...SO DO NOT MENTION
ANY POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL UNTIL THEN. ONCE AGAIN POTETNIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO DEVELOPS FROM W TO E STARTING LATE
THIS EVENING OVER THE W 1/3 OF THE CWA...THEN SPREADING E
OVERNIGHT.
FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THREAT FOR RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ON
MONDAY...BECOMING MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE WITH ADDED INSTABILITY
DUE TO SOLAR INSOLATION...SO CONVERT FROM RAIN TO SHOWERS AFTER
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGOUGHT THE DAY. PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF FROM W TO E LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON/MONDAY EVENING AS SUPPORTING 700-500 HPA
SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE EAST.
REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THE AFD FOR DETAILS ON QPF
AMOUNTS AND POTENTIAL IMAPCACTS.
ANOTHER ITEM TO NOTE...SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION COULD BE DUE TO A
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OR TWO PASSING NEAR OR OVER PORTIONS
OF THE AREA. ANY TIME THERE IS A MESO-SCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
PASSING NEAR/OVER AN AREA THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RUELD OUT...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. HOWEVER THE PROBABILITY OF THIS IS VERY LOW. ALSO...THERE
IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT NUMBER AND
TRACK OF ANY MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX...WITH SOME POSSIBILITY
THAT THE AREA COULD BE MISSED BY THEM ENTIERLY. EVEN IF THIS WERE
TO HAPPEN...THE REGION STILL WILL RECEIVE RAINFALL DUE TO THE
UNDERLYING SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN.
FOR HIGHS MONDAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUDIANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FROM NYC ON WEST
AND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER CT AND LONG ISLAND DUE TO THE
IMPACT OF ONSHORE FLOW.
A BLEND OF MAV/ECS/MET GUDIANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH
VALUES FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD AS THE
FORECAST AREA WILL RESIDE AT THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES.
DURING THE SUMMERTIME...THIS IS A FAVORED LOCATION FOR MCS
DEVELOPMENT. AT THE SAME TIME...THE SUB TROP RIDGE WILL EXTEND AS
FAR WEST AS THE MS VALLEY...ALLOWING DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO BE
FUNNELED NORTHWARD AS A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVE QUICKLY EAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. THE MOST CHALLENGING
PART OF THE FORECAST IS THE TIMING OF THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES ASSOC
WITH THESE SYSTEMS.
THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE A COLD FRONT TUE AFT WHICH LOOKS TO HAVE
MODERATE SHEAR AND CAPE. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED
STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION ALONG WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.
ANOTHER SYSTEM FOLLOWS THU INTO THU NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE FORECAST FRI MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY FOLLOWS
EACH OF THESE SYSTEMS. 12Z GFS AND ECMWF BRING ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM INTO THE AREA LATE SAT INTO SUN. TIMING IN THE FAST FLOW THIS
FAR OUT IN TIME THOUGH LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.
WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH DEW POINTS MAINLY IN THE
60S. TEMPS WILL BE AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA MOVES OFFSHORE. LOW PRES PASSING
NORTH OF THE AREA WILL DRAG A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY LOW PRES PASSING THROUGH THE REGION ON
MONDAY.
VFR THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. CONDS LOWER TO MVFR FROM 04-07Z IN
SHRA...AND THEN BECOME IFR STARTING AROUND 08Z AND PERSISTING
THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING. OCNL LIFR CONDS POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO
TIME. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES...AND A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS
POSSIBLE AS WELL. CHANCES FOR TSTMS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS.
S WINDS 8-12 KT BECOME SE 5-10 KT TONIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY AFTERNOON...CONDS IMPROVE TO MVFR.
.MONDAY NIGHT...IFR AND LOWER IN SHRA/TSRA.
.TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER IN SHRA/TSRA.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS SHOULD BE 10 KT OR LESS TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...AND
GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS ON MONDAY. FOR NOW IT APPEARS GUSTS MONDAY
AFTERNOON ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS SHOULD STAY BELOW 25
KT...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS A SLIGHT CHANGE IN CONDITIONS
COULD LEAD TO 25 KT GUSTS THEN. AS A RESULT...CURRENTLY
FORECASTING SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS TONIGHT-
MONDAY NIGHT.
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A SERIES OF WEAK
FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS...EACH FOLLOWED BRIEFLY BY
HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE TO AROUND/JUST OVER 2 INCHES OVER THE
ENTIRE CWA FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
DECREASING. THIS IS MORE THAN 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.
THERE IS THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL UNDER ANY
STRONGER CONVECTION. WHAT IS IN QUESTION IS EXACTLY WHERE ANY
LOCALLY HEAVY CONVECTION WILL OCCUR AND FOR HOW LONG WILL IT LAST.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY DO NOT HAVE THE REQUIRED 50 PERCENT
CONFIDENCE NEEDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...BETWEEN 1.25 AND 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS BEING FORECAST
ACROSS THE AREA FROM TONIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING...WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS OVER NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWEST AMOUNTS
OVER SE CT/E LONG ISLAND. THERE IS DEFINITELY A THREAT FOR
WIDESPREAD MINOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AS WELL AS
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING...INCLUDING OF SOME FLASHIER
STREAMS/CREEKS IN NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. WILL ADDRESS
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING AND WIDESPREAD MINOR
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IN THE HWO.
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. HIGH PWATS DURING THIS TIME SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/DW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MALOIT/DW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/DW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
145 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE FORECAST.
41
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAST OF THE SHOWERS THAT WERE LINED UP ALONG THE ALABAMA/GEORGIA
BORDER HAVE DISSIPATED WITH JUST A LEFTOVER BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE LOCAL AREA AND DEVELOPING MID AND UPPER
LEVEL HIGH ON THE RAP ALLOWED FOR MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ON SATURDAY.
EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH 500MB HIGH BECOMING JUST A
TAF STRONGER AT 592DM. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND ALTHOUGH ATLANTA BARELY ESCAPED THE FIRST
90 DEGREE DAY OF THE YEAR YESTERDAY...IT SHOULD BE EASILY REACHED
TODAY. SHIED AWAY FROM BIAS CORRECTED AS WE ENTER A NEW WEATHER
PATTERN AND IT SEEMED CORRECTION WAS JUST TOO LOW FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST. INSTEAD WENT CLOSER TO THE RAW MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH
YIELDS VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL GEORGIA.
FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS...ONE COULD ARGUE FOR NIL POPS GIVEN STRENGTH
AND ORIENTATION OF STACKED MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH. FOR ME
THOUGH...JUST TOO MUCH MOISTURE AND PRECIPITABLE WATER TO KEEP
POPS COMPLETELY OUT. WILL WAIT AND SEE HOW TODAY UNFOLDS AND MAYBE
THEN WE CAN REMOVE FOR MONDAY. USUALLY IN PATTERNS LIKE THESE WE
HAVE PWATS RIGHT AT AND INCH OR LOWER WHEREAS WE ARE CLOSER TO 1.5
INCHES FOR THIS EVENT.
SIMILAR TEMP FORECAST FOR MONDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 90S AREA WIDE
AND HEAT INDICES IN THE LOWER 100S FOR SE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
DEESE
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM BUT THIS RIDGE ISNT STRONG ENOUGH THOUGH TO SHUT OFF
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. STILL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE
WITH PW VALUES EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES SO EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUE-WED. BY THURSDAY A SHORTWAVE IS
TRAVERSING THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND AS IT LIFTS THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY FRIDAY...THIS WILL PROVIDE MORE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA.
INSTABILITY INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. WITH MUCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 2500 J/KG ACROSS
NORTH GEORGIA...ANY FOCUS FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE
ACROSS THAT AREA...MAINLY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
MAIN STORY THOUGH REALLY CONTINUES TO BE THE HEAT. HEAT INDICES ARE
BETWEEN 100 AND 104 ACROSS EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA EACH DAY. TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY THE HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER
THAN THE REST OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER ITS SUCH A SUBTLE DIFFERENCE
THAT IT WONT BE NOTICEABLE. EVEN THOUGH WE ARE JUST BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE LONG TERM...ITS STILL GOING TO BE HOT AND
FOLKS NEED TO FOLLOW HEAT SAFETY RULES SUCH AS LIMITING TIME
OUTDOORS AND DRINKING PLENTY OF WATER.
11
CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 06-14
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 101 1921 74 1906 74 2010 52 1995
1981 1985
1958
KATL 96 1958 71 1955 78 1880 54 1968
1948
1914
KMCN 102 1963 73 1933 77 1958 53 1995
1921 1968
RECORDS FOR 06-15
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 99 1918 71 1965 76 1998 55 1933
KATL 96 1952 68 1884 76 1998 50 1917
1943
KMCN 100 2011 70 1955 78 1998 54 1995
2010
RECORDS FOR 06-16
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 100 1911 62 1961 74 1924 50 1917
KATL 98 1936 66 1927 74 1943 47 1917
1934
1920
KMCN 99 1964 69 1927 75 1964 50 1917
1920
1911
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT TO
KEEP SCT050-060 IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA
IN THE GRIDS BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN ANY TAFS AT THIS
POINT. LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.
DEESE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 96 72 98 73 / 20 20 20 10
ATLANTA 93 74 94 75 / 20 20 20 10
BLAIRSVILLE 89 66 90 67 / 20 20 20 20
CARTERSVILLE 94 70 95 71 / 20 20 20 10
COLUMBUS 96 73 97 74 / 20 20 20 10
GAINESVILLE 93 72 94 73 / 20 20 20 10
MACON 97 71 97 73 / 20 20 20 10
ROME 94 70 96 70 / 20 20 20 10
PEACHTREE CITY 94 70 94 71 / 20 20 20 10
VIDALIA 97 74 97 74 / 20 20 20 10
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...41
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
100 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE FORECAST TODAY WAS PRECIP CHANCES...OR LACK
THEREOF AND TEMPERATURES. TRENDED TOWARD A DRIER FORECAST FOR
TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN TO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE DRIER
FORECAST FOR TODAY AND UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE NAM/ECMWF.
A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER IOWA IS SLOW TO SLIDE
EAST-NORTHEAST TODAY AND SHOULD KEEP THE PRECIP ACTIVITY...IF ANY
DEVELOPS...CONFINED TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. NAM SHOWS A FEW
RIPPLES OF THETA-E ADVECTION AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TODAY OVER SOUTHERN IOWA. 14.06Z HRRR AND 14.03Z HOPWRF SHOW
ISOLATED POP-UP TS/SHOWERS BUT WEAK SHEAR AND MINIMAL INSTABILITY
WILL KEEP ANYTHING FROM BEING LONG-LIVED. STILL...THE AIRMASS HAS
NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS WRT TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGE IN THE 1.5-2.0 INCH
RANGE AND WARM LAYER CLOUD DEPTHS RANGE FROM 3800-4000 METERS IN
SOUTHERN IOWA. HENCE...IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP IT SHOULD HAVE SOME
DECENT RAINFALL RATES FOR SHORT STINT BUT NOT CONCERNED WITH FLASH
FLOODING DUE TO THE SHORT-LIVED NATURE OF STORMS AND LACK OF
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TODAY.
FOR TEMPERATURES...SINCE WENT DRY ACROSS THE WEST TO NORTH AND
LOWERED POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST...LEANED TOWARD RAISING MAX TEMPS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES. MOS GUIDANCE HAS CAUGHT ONTO THIS TREND AND
LEANED CLOSER THE METMOS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOUTHERN
IOWA LOOKS TO REMAIN THE COOLEST WITH THE MORE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIP CHANCES.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
IN THE EXTENDED...PATTERN TO EVOLVE VERY SLOWLY THIS WEEK...WITH
SOME WARMING TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE MUCH COOLER AIR
BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE REGION. LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AGAIN
TONIGHT...MODELS OF LITTLE ASSISTANCE LAST NIGHT THOUGH RAIN DID
FALL JUST TO THE EAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY. SFC ANALYSIS
THIS EVENING SHOWS THAT THE BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION YESTERDAY
LIFTED NORTHEAST AND BASICALLY WEAKENED. WHAT WAVE DID EXIST ALOFT
ALSO LIFTED MORE NORTHEAST THAN NORTH RESULTING IN THE H850
MOISTURE CHANNEL FOCUSED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE AREA...KEEPING
THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL IN EASTERN IOWA
TO WISCONSIN. NEXT CHALLENGE IS THE UPSTREAM WAVE PROGGED TO
AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LEE SIDE TROUGH ADVERTISED TO
DRIFT NORTHEAST ONCE AGAIN WITH ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM COOL FRONT
HEADING SOUTHEAST TOWARD IOWA MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE
TWO SYSTEMS /SHOULD/ RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS BUT LIKE LAST
NIGHT...SIMILAR WEAKENING OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE AND LIGHT
WINDS AT H850 MAY RESULT IN A MORE NARROW BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTH OF THE REGION...THOUGH COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD
INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS WEAK LOW LEVEL JET FORMS OVER MISSOURI.
FOR NOW HAVE CUT BACK ON CHANCES NORTH WITH FOCUS CLOSER TO THE
SOUTH THIRD OF IOWA TOWARD THE MISSOURI BORDER LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY. AS THE COOL FRONT APPROACHES NORTHWEST IOWA LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...LIKELY THAT ONLY SHOWERS AND ISO
THUNDER WILL OCCUR NORTH UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON... WHEN ACROSS THE
SOUTH THE BOUNDARY BECOMES MORE ACTIVE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER RETURNS. AT THIS
TIME AM NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN TERMS OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL
IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS SO WILL NOT NEED HEADLINES. THOUGH STORMS MAY
BE SLOW MOVERS...LIKELY THAT WIND FIELDS WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH TO
KEEP STORMS FROM ORGANIZING.
PER PREVIOUS FORECASTS...TUESDAY LOOKS COOLER AND LESS HUMID
OVERALL WITH ABOUT A DAY OF MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS BEFORE ANOTHER
WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ONCE THE HIGH RETREATS EAST TUESDAY
NIGHT...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL INDUCE A LEE SIDE LOW
AND ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY. FINALLY
TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD A MORE SIGNIFICANT NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM SHOULD ARRIVE LATE IN THE WEEK. TIMING IS STILL IN
QUESTION BUT THE MODELS TODAY ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SOME MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION...POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S AGAIN BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A LOT DEPENDS ON CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS AND IF A H700 CAP INDEED FORMS. WITH A BAND OF MUCH STRONGER
WESTERLIES INTERACTING WITH THE VERY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS BY
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THE STAGE SHOULD BE SET FOR AN ACTIVE PERIOD
OF SUMMER STORMS BEFORE MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES ON SUNDAY. SOME
TIMING ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS RANGE...BUT THE SIGNAL FOR MORE
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS BECOMING MORE
APPARENT.
&&
.AVIATION...14/18Z
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
SCT SHRA SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON WITH A POSSIBLE BREAK IN THE EARLY EVENING THEN
CHANCES INCREASE TOWARDS 06Z. WE WILL HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE
PASS OVERNIGHT BRINGING A POTENTIAL FOR TSRA WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
THEN LATE IN THE PERIOD A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS TAF
SITES. OCNL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MAINLY SRN TAF LOCATIONS IS ABOUT THE EASIEST WAY TO SUM UP
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TAF FORECAST PD. SFC WND WILL GENERALLY BE
SOUTHERLY AT 5-15KTS SWITCHING TO THE W AND NW WITH THE FROPA FROM NW
TO SE ACROSS THE STATE BEGINNING AFT 14Z.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...FAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1235 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
06Z SFC DATA SUGGESTS A WEAK FRONT/BOUNDARY FROM SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO NORTHEAST IOWA. A SECONDARY FRONT/BOUNDARY RAN FROM
CENTRAL INDIANA INTO SOUTHERN IOWA. DEW POINTS NORTH OF THE FIRST
BOUNDARY WERE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. SOUTH OF THE SECOND BOUNDARY
DEW POINTS WERE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
THE WEAK CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS/SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNRISE. A
SATURATED ATMOSPHERE COMBINED WITH WEAK LIFT FROM TWO SEPARATE
BOUNDARIES WILL ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PERSIST
THROUGH SUNRISE. ANY BRIEF CLEARING THAT OCCURS WILL ALLOW PATCHY
FOG TO DEVELOP.
AFTER SUNRISE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
AREA WITH A GRADUAL DECAY FROM MID TO LATE MORNING AND INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IF TRENDS FROM THE RAP ARE CORRECT...A
NEW ROUND OF SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THE I-80 CORRIDOR EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
ANY WEAK HEATING THAT OCCURS DURING THE DAY WILL ALLOW A NEW ROUND
OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
TONIGHT...INTERNAL SIGNALS FROM THE MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPING BETWEEN KOMA AND KSTJ. IF THIS
SCENARIO IS CORRECT...THIS STORM COMPLEX WOULD SLOWLY MOVE EAST OR
EAST NORTHEAST AND MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE CONTINUED
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE COMBINED WITH WEAK FLOW
ALOFT POINTS TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER
STORMS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
DRY WEATHER DAYS FOR THE ENTIRE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO BE HARD TO COME
BY...AS OUR EXTENDED FORECAST IS DOMINATED BY WEAK FLOW...AND OUR
CWA IS ON THE PERIPHERY OF A VERY MOIST AIRMASS. THIS TYPE OF
PATTERN DOES NOT REQUIRE STRONG FORCING FOR RAIN TO TAKE PLACE...AS
NOTED BY THE PAST 36 HOURS...WHERE THE RAINS JUST KEEP FALLING. IT
DOES APPEAR THAT AS A TROPICAL LOW MOVES UP INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY...WE MAY SEE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE
TO PROVIDE A DRY PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY IN THE NORTH. AS
HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW DAYS...THERE SHOULD BE A GENERAL
DIURNAL UPTICK IN COVERAGE OF STORMS...INCLUDING A PERIOD WHERE
STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINS WILL BE A THREAT. THESE MAY EVOLVE
INTO CLUSTERS...BEFORE DECAYING TO SHOWERS LIKE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.
THE BEST THREAT FOR RAINS DOES SEEM TO BE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA...WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE OVER IOWA AND
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. AS SAID...FORCING IS WEAK...BUT WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE AND NO CAP...WE SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
OF STORMS. SPC DOES HAVE OUR EASTERN CWA IN SLIGHT FOR DAY 2. I
BELIEVE THAT THREAT IS LARGELY DIURNAL...AND PROBABLY TIED MAINLY
HEAVY RAIN LOADED DOWNDRAFTS. WITHOUT A CAP...WE SHOULD READILY USE
UP OUR CAPE...RATHER THAN GETTING THINGS TOO UNSTABLE...THUS I THINK
THE THREAT IS LIMITED TO ISOLATED EVENTS. WHILE NOT A WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAIN EVENT...ISOLATED HEAVY RAINS TOTALS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ANY OF THESE COULD BE PROBLEMATIC FOR A
FLASH FLOOD THREAT GIVEN HOW VERY SATURATED OUR SOILS ARE AT THIS
POINT. HOWEVER...SINCE THE THREAT IS NOT CLEAR IN WHERE THE HEAVY
TOTALS WILL BE...IN SCATTERED CONVECTION...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
NOT BEING ISSUED YET.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...IS CONCERNING. THERE ARE SIGNS
OF A PREDECESSOR RAIN EVENT...OR PRE. A HEAVY RAIN EVENT...THAT
COULD OCCUR IN OUR CWA. THIS TYPE OF EVENT OCCURS WITH A LANDFALLING
TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE GULF...AND WESTERLIES IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
IN SHORT...WE WOULD HAVE SOME SUPPORT FOR TRAINING CONVECTION...AND
TROPICAL MOISTURE WELL DISPLACED FROM THE LANDFALLING SYSTEM. AT
THIS POINT...SIGNS ARE NOT CONFIDENT...BUT I FIND IT TROUBLING THAT
THE ECMWF PLACES AN ACTIVE STALLED SURFACE FRONT OVER IOWA TO
INDIANA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH A SHORT WAVE LOCATED IN
THE DAKOTAS. IN ANY CASE...THE GFS IS NOT SHOWING THIS...BUT IT
NEEDS TO BE WATCHED.
BEYOND THIS...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE
CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...HOPEFULLY RESULTING IN AT
LEAST ONE DRY DAY BEHIND IT. NEEDLESS TO SAY...WITH WEST SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...AND PLENTY OF WARMTH AND HUMIDITY AROUND...I HAVE NO
FAITH IN THAT PROSPECT. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN....WHICH EXTENDS
THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND...OFFERS A HIGH CHANCE FOR DAILY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS SAID IN MANY OF OUR PRODUCTS THE PAST
FEW DAYS...WE MAY BE MOVING INTO A PERIOD OF RATHER WIDESPREAD
FLOODING...BUT AS TO WHAT SIGNIFICANCE AND WHAT RIVERS...THAT IS YET
TO BE DETERMINED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO REMAINS IN PLACE WITH BKN-
OVC COVERAGE OF CLOUDS WITH BASES 3-6K AGL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS REACHED. ALL TERMINALS TO LIKELY
EXPERIENCE SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS HANDLED
AS A TEMPO GROUP WITH A PERIOD OF HIGH IFR OR LOWER END MVFR CONDITIONS.
A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN KANSAS WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINS OF THUNDERSTORMS
AND SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. LOWER END MVFR TO HIGHER
END IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. AFTER 15/14Z...LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN OF .5 TO 2K AGL AND 1-4 MILES IN FOG WITH A CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN TO CONTINUE INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING. SOME IMPROVEMENT
EXPECTED IN CLOUDS AND FLYING CONDITIONS AROUND 14/18Z.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...NICHOLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
151 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING AND WHILE COVERAGE
SHOULD REMAIN FEW AND FAR BETWEEN...WENT AHEAD AND EXPANDED THE
MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1045 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
FORECAST APPEARS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH STRONG RIDGING ALOFT AND MID
LEVEL WARMING LIKELY KEEPING A LID ON CONVECTION TODAY FOR MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA/WEST VIRGINIA BORDERS AND PERHAPS OVER
OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES...FURTHER AWAY FROM THE CORE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE...WHERE AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL FEATURE HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY
IN OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND ALONG THE VIRGINIA AND WEST
VIRGINIA BORDERS...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND 90 BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY FALLING TO AROUND 70 ACROSS THE AREA. THE
NAM12 AND HRRR MODELS ARE BOTH IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY TODAY AND
MONDAY...SO THESE TWO MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE USED TO CREATE THE
FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
WHILE THE MODELS ALL LINE UP WITH EACH OTHER ALOFT FOR THE
EXTENDED...THIS AGREEMENT IS A BIT OF A DEPARTURE WITH RESPECT TO
THEIR CONSENSUS OF 24 HOURS AGO...LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE. THEY
NOW ALL SHOW THE RIDGING A BIT MORE SUBSTANTIAL THROUGH THE DEEP
SOUTH WITH THE TRAIN OF WEAK ENERGY WAVES STAYING FURTHER NORTH THAN
LAST NIGHT/S VERSION. THE TROUGH THAT LOOKED TO PASS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY IS NOW A BIT SLOWER AND WILL JUST
BE GETTING TO OUR AREA ON FRIDAY WITH THE GFS THE SLOWEST SOLUTION.
ACCORDINGLY...THE MODELS NOW SUGGEST THAT THIS WAVE WILL NOT BE
MOVING OUT UNTIL THE UPCOMING SATURDAY WITH RISING HEIGHTS TO FOLLOW
INTO THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEKEND. THIS LATEST MODEL SCENARIO
WOULD MAKE THE STORMS MORE OF AN UNCERTAINTY...BASICALLY WAITING FOR
OUTFLOW FROM ONES TRACKING TO THE NORTH TO TAP INTO OUR WARM AND
HUMID AIR FOR ANY BETTER CONVECTIVE CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WILL AGAIN FAVOR A MODEL BLENDED SOLUTION FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION
OF THE FORECAST...WITH A HEAVY DIURNAL COMPONENT TO THE POPS AND SKY
COVER.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL SEE A WARM AND HUMID SETUP FOR EAST KENTUCKY
THROUGH THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED. THE BETTER STORM CHANCES WILL BE
WEST AND NORTH OF THE CWA...ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. THE BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL BE SEEN
FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A LOW
PRESSURE AREA AND A POOL OF MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS. LOWER POPS
WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE AREA ON SATURDAY OWING TO RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AT THE SFC. THE WARMEST DAYS OF
THE EXTENDED WILL BE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS FROM 85 TO
90 DEGREES AND THE HEAT INDEX A CATEGORY HIGHER EACH AFTERNOON. MORE
CLOUDS AND CONVECTION SHOULD SERVE TO CHECK THE WARMTH ON
FRIDAY...BUT HIGHS SHOULD BE UP A NOTCH SATURDAY AS SOME DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE MORE TROPICAL AIR MASS.
THE CR GRID BLEND CAME IN REASONABLY WELL WITH THE BULK OF ANY
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE POPS AND SKY TO ACCOUNT FOR A STRONG DIURNAL
CYCLE WITH THESE GRIDS THROUGH THURSDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DID
TOUCH THE LOWS A BIT EACH NIGHT TO REPRESENT ONLY MINOR TERRAIN
EFFECTS GIVEN THE FAIRLY HIGH MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL
TAF SITES WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL DOT THE LANDSCAPE THIS AFTERNOON BUT ANY IMPACTS
SHOULD BE MINIMAL AND BRIEF. THE STORMS WILL DIE AFTER SUNSET
FOLLOWED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG IN OUR
NORMALLY FOG PRONE RIVER VALLEYS. MONDAY WILL THEN FEATURE
ANOTHER DAY OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
STORMS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ABE
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...ABE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
613 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
610 PM UPDATE...
RIDGE AXIS IS PARKED OVR NW MAINE AT THIS AND WL SLIDE EAST
OVRNGT. AS IT DOES SO, THIN CIRRUS WL SPILL INTO SWRN ZONES LATE
TONIGHT AND CURRENT FCST HAS THIS WELL IN HAND. WINDS HV
DIMINISHED WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HTG, BCMG LGT/VRB AFT MIDNIGHT AND
THEN VEERING TWD DAYBREAK. MIN TEMPS STILL PROGGED TO DROP INTO
THE L/M 40S ACRS NORTH AND ARND 50 IN DOWNEAST. WL MONITOR TRENDS
THIS EVNG TO DETERMINE IF AN ADJUSTMENT UP IN MINS TONIGHT IS
NEEDED ACRS NRN ZONES. NO CHGS WITH THIS UPDATE.
PREV DISCO BLO...
THE MAIN CHALLENGES THIS TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND WIND.
HIGH PRES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY. 06Z IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE W/SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
ESE FROM CANADA. THE 00Z NAM AND THE LATEST HRRR 3KM HANDLED THIS
HIGH CLOUDINESS WELL. THIS HIGH CLOUDINESS APPEARED TO BE IN
ASSOCIATION W/SHEARED VORTICITY MOVING SE FROM CANADA. THE NAM AND
HRRR 3KM MODEL SHOW SOME OF THIS CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST AREAS TODAY W/THE MAJORITY OF IT BEING THIN. FURTHER
NORTH, MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY W/A
NORTHERLY WIND IN PLACE IN LLVLS. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 70S NORTH AND WEST W/MID TO UPPER 70S
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. A SEA BREEZE LOOKS LIKE IT COULD SET UP
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST KEEPING THING COOLER SAY ALONG THE BAR
HARBOR TO MACHIAS. 00Z UA SHOWED A 30 KT JET MAX RESIDING AT
850MBS IN QUEBEC. THIS JET MAX IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. MODEL SOUNDING SHOW INVERTED V IN THE BLYR W/SOME OF
THIS WIND TO MIX DOWN TO THE SFC. THEREFORE, INCREASED THE GUSTS
BY 5 MPH TODAY PLAYING FOR GUSTS TO HIT 20 KT MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.
FOR TONIGHT, HIGH PRES WILL MOVE TO THE E W/THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION. SOUNDING DATA INDICATED DRY THROUGH THE COLUMN
W/CLEAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT W/THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO
THE REGION. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DROP OFF LESS THAN 7 MPH
W/TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK OVERNIGHT. READINGS BY DAYBREAK ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH AND WEST W/50-55
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE JET STREAM WILL BE NEAR ITS SUMMERTIME POSITION ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER WITH A BROAD RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING MAY BE TOO LATE
IN THE DAY FOR STRONG CONVECTION...HOWEVER THIS SCENARIO WILL BE
WATCHED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. SPC CURRENTLY HAS MOST OF
MAINE IN A DAY 3 OUTLOOK MARGINAL CATEGORY WITH A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS
VERMONT AND NEW HAMPSHIRE.
THIS FRONT CLEARS THE STATE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MID
JUNE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS DRY WITH HIGH PRES SLIDING JUST SOUTH OF MAINE.
HOWEVER, CLOUDS WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM. THERE REMAINS DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ON HOW
PROGRESSIVE THE PATTERN WILL BE LATE WEEK, WITH THE GFS REMAINING
ABOUT 6 HOURS OR SO AHEAD OF THE ECMWF, THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
TREND TOWARD THE GFS WITH THE 12Z RUN TODAY. GIVEN THIS TREND AND
THE OVERALL MORE CONSISTENT NATURE OF THE GFS, ANY EDITS AWAY
FROM SUPERBLEND LEANED TOWARD THE GFS. THE CANADIAN WASN`T
CONSIDERED STRONGLY LATE WEEK DUE TO IT BEING FAR MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH HAVING THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF GETTING CAUGHT UP
IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND HAVING IT POTENTIALLY IMPACTING
NEW ENGLAND AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE MODEL REASONING OUT OF THE WAY, IT LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT
FRONT PUSHES INTO NW MAINE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT FRIDAY AND CLEARS
THE CWA LATER THAT MORNING. HIGH PRES BUILDING IN BRINGS CLEARING
LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, AND LIKELY A CHILLY NIGHT FOR THE
NORTH MAINE WOODS. THE WEATHER SITUATION ON SUNDAY COULD BE
TRICKY, AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE THE REMNANTS OF THE GULF
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE REACHING THE EAST COAST. ECMWF BRINGS IT
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND PUSHES SOME RAIN INTO COASTAL
MAINE, WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT SOUTH IN THE MID-ATLANTIC. GIVEN
EARLIER MODEL DECISIONS, DECIDED TO STICK WITH GFS AND SUPERBLEND
WHICH SHOWS NO ENHANCED POPS ALONG THE COAST, BUT IT WILL BEAR
MONITORING. BOTH MODELS SHOW SOME FRONT OR LOW APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM, WHICH WAS REFLECTED IN POPS.&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT. A LIGHT CHOP EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM: IFR OR MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TAF SITES
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS.
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TAF SITES LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
SHORT TERM:
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES THIS TERM. SUSTAINED WINDS TO AVERAGE 10
KTS W/A FEW GUSTS OF 20 KTS EARLY TODAY FOR THE OUTER ZONE FROM
SCHOODIC POINT TO STONINGTON. SEAS OF 2-3 AWAY FROM THE INTRA-
COASTAL ZONE.
SHORT TERM: SEAS WILL APPROACH 5 FEET AND WIND GUSTS MAY HIT 25
KNOTS IN THE OUTER COASTAL ZONES ON TUESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FARRAR/MCW
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...KREDENSOR
AVIATION...FARRAR/MCW/OKULSKI
MARINE...FARRAR/MCW/OKULSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
310 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM QUEBEC TODAY. THIS HIGH WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE MAIN CHALLENGES THIS TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND WIND.
HIGH PRES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY. 06Z IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE W/SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
ESE FROM CANADA. THE 00Z NAM AND THE LATEST HRRR 3KM HANDLED THIS
HIGH CLOUDINESS WELL. THIS HIGH CLOUDINESS APPEARED TO BE IN
ASSOCIATION W/SHEARED VORTICITY MOVING SE FROM CANADA. THE NAM AND
HRRR 3KM MODEL SHOW SOME OF THIS CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST AREAS TODAY W/THE MAJORITY OF IT BEING THIN. FURTHER
NORTH, MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY W/A
NORTHERLY WIND IN PLACE IN LLVLS. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 70S NORTH AND WEST W/MID TO UPPER 70S
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. A SEA BREEZE LOOKS LIKE IT COULD SET UP
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST KEEPING THING COOLER SAY ALONG THE BAR
HARBOR TO MACHIAS. 00Z UA SHOWED A 30 KT JET MAX RESIDING AT
850MBS IN QUEBEC. THIS JET MAX IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. MODEL SOUNDING SHOW INVERTED V IN THE BLYR W/SOME OF
THIS WIND TO MIX DOWN TO THE SFC. THEREFORE, INCREASED THE GUSTS
BY 5 MPH TODAY PLAYING FOR GUSTS TO HIT 20 KT MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.
FOR TONIGHT, HIGH PRES WILL MOVE TO THE E W/THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION. SOUNDING DATA INDICATED DRY THROUGH THE COLUMN
W/CLEAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT W/THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO
THE REGION. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DROP OFF LESS THAN 7 MPH
W/TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK OVERNIGHT. READINGS BY DAYBREAK ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH AND WEST W/50-55
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE JET STREAM WILL BE NEAR ITS SUMMERTIME POSITION ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER WITH A BROAD RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING MAY BE TOO LATE
IN THE DAY FOR STRONG CONVECTION...HOWEVER THIS SCENARIO WILL BE
WATCHED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. SPC CURRENTLY HAS MOST OF
MAINE IN A DAY 3 OUTLOOK MARGINAL CATEGORY WITH A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS
VERMONT AND NEW HAMPSHIRE.
THIS FRONT CLEARS THE STATE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MID
JUNE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS DRY WITH HIGH PRES SLIDING JUST SOUTH OF MAINE.
HOWEVER, CLOUDS WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM. THERE REMAINS DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ON HOW
PROGRESSIVE THE PATTERN WILL BE LATE WEEK, WITH THE GFS REMAINING
ABOUT 6 HOURS OR SO AHEAD OF THE ECMWF, THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
TREND TOWARD THE GFS WITH THE 12Z RUN TODAY. GIVEN THIS TREND AND
THE OVERALL MORE CONSISTENT NATURE OF THE GFS, ANY EDITS AWAY
FROM SUPERBLEND LEANED TOWARD THE GFS. THE CANADIAN WASN`T
CONSIDERED STRONGLY LATE WEEK DUE TO IT BEING FAR MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH HAVING THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF GETTING CAUGHT UP
IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND HAVING IT POTENTIALLY IMPACTING
NEW ENGLAND AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE MODEL REASONING OUT OF THE WAY, IT LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT
FRONT PUSHES INTO NW MAINE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT FRIDAY AND CLEARS
THE CWA LATER THAT MORNING. HIGH PRES BUILDING IN BRINGS CLEARING
LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, AND LIKELY A CHILLY NIGHT FOR THE
NORTH MAINE WOODS. THE WEATHER SITUATION ON SUNDAY COULD BE
TRICKY, AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE THE REMNANTS OF THE GULF
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE REACHING THE EAST COAST. ECMWF BRINGS IT
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND PUSHES SOME RAIN INTO COASTAL
MAINE, WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT SOUTH IN THE MID-ATLANTIC. GIVEN
EARLIER MODEL DECISIONS, DECIDED TO STICK WITH GFS AND SUPERBLEND
WHICH SHOWS NO ENHANCED POPS ALONG THE COAST, BUT IT WILL BEAR
MONITORING. BOTH MODELS SHOW SOME FRONT OR LOW APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM, WHICH WAS REFLECTED IN POPS.&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT. A LIGHT CHOP EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM: IFR OR MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TAF SITES
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS.
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TAF SITES LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES THIS TERM. SUSTAINED WINDS TO AVERAGE 10
KTS W/A FEW GUSTS OF 20 KTS EARLY TODAY FOR THE OUTER ZONE FROM
SCHOODIC POINT TO STONINGTON. SEAS OF 2-3 AWAY FROM THE INTRA-
COASTAL ZONE.
SHORT TERM: SEAS WILL APPROACH 5 FEET AND WIND GUSTS MAY HIT 25
KNOTS IN THE OUTER COASTAL ZONES ON TUESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...FMK
AVIATION...MCW/OKULSKI
MARINE...MCW/OKULSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1210 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM QUEBEC TODAY. THIS HIGH WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1215 AM UPDATE...NO CHANGES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A SUNNY
AND PLEASANT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOW HUMIDITY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY.
06Z IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE
W/SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ESE FROM CANADA. THE 00Z NAM AND THE
LATEST HRRR 3KM HANDLED THIS HIGH CLOUDINESS WELL. THIS HIGH
CLOUDINESS APPEARED TO BE IN ASSOCIATION W/SHEARED VORTICITY
MOVING SE FROM CANADA. THE NAM AND HRRR 3KM MODEL SHOW SOME OF
THIS CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS TODAY
W/THE MAJORITY OF IT BEING THIN. FURTHER NORTH, MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY W/A NORTHERLY WIND IN
PLACE IN LLVLS. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
LOWER 70S NORTH AND WEST W/MID TO UPPER 70S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.
A SEA BREEZE LOOKS LIKE IT COULD SET UP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
KEEPING THING COOLER SAY ALONG THE BAR HARBOR TO MACHIAS. 00Z UA
SHOWED A 30 KT JET MAX RESIDING AT 850MBS IN QUEBEC. THIS JET MAX
IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. MODEL SOUNDING SHOW
INVERTED V IN THE BLYR W/SOME OF THIS WIND TO MIX DOWN TO THE SFC.
THEREFORE, INCREASED THE GUSTS BY 5 MPH TODAY PLAYING FOR GUSTS TO
HIT 20 KT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.
FOR TONIGHT, HIGH PRES WILL MOVE TO THE E W/THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION. SOUNDING DATA INDICATED DRY THROUGH THE COLUMN
W/CLEAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT W/THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO
THE REGION. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DROP OFF LESS THAN 7 MPH
W/TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK OVERNIGHT. READINGS BY DAYBREAK ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH AND WEST W/50-55
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE MAINE COAST DURING MONDAY WITH
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE AROUND 70
ACROSS THE NORTH AND ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S DOWN EAST WITH
AN ONSHORE FLOW.
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST MONDAY NIGHT WHILE AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL
TO THE WEST ACROSS QUEBEC. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE
AND FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS DOWN EAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH TO THE EAST AND THE LOW OFF TO THE
SOUTH. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL START
TO MOVE IN DURING TUESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ANY
TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE THE BETTER DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED. HIGHS
ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S DOWN EAST TO THE UPPER 60S
TO NEAR 70 NORTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ENDING BY MIDNIGHT.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
WITH DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH
WILL MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH DURING
THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
50S.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: 615 AM UPDATE...A 3500 FT DECK(STRATOCUMULUS) HAS MADE
ITS WAY S INTO NORTHERN AREAS W/CIRRUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS.
AMENDED THE NORTHERN TERMINALS TO PLAY FOR THE STRATOCUMULUS DECK.
OTHERWISE...VFR RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT. A LIGHT CHOP EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM: VFR MONDAY. IFR/LIFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY ESPECIALLY KBGR/KBHB WITH LOW
CLOUDS/AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
EAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. VFR TO START THURSDAY THEN
POSSIBLY MVFR AT TIMES IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES THIS TERM. SUSTAINED WINDS TO AVERAGE 10
KTS W/A FEW GUSTS OF 20 KTS EARLY TODAY FOR THE OUTER ZONE FROM
SCHOODIC POINT TO STONINGTON. SEAS OF 2-3 AWAY FROM THE INTRA-
COASTAL ZONE.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. VISIBILITIES WILL DECREASE TO AROUND A
MILE OR LESS AT TIMES IN AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE MONDAY NIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT/MCW
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/MCW/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/MCW/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
150 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SW FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE UPR GRT LKS BTWN UPR RDG AXIS ORIENTED FM JAMES BAY INTO
THE SE CONUS AND AN UPR TROF OVER WRN CANADA/NRN ROCKIES. SHRTWV
EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS THAT FELL
ON SAT EVNG IS NOW OVER LK SUP AND LIFTING TO THE NE. VIGOROUS MID
LVL DRYING UNDER THE DNVA/SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS
DISTURBANCE....REFLECTED BY 00Z H7-5 DEWPT DEPRESSIONS OF 15-20C AT
THE RAOB SITES UPSTREAM OF UPR MI...HAS ENDED THE SHOWERS OVER THE
CWA. BUT WITH LINGERING LLVL MSTR UNDER THE MID LVL DRYING IN THE
PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING...AREAS OF FOG HAVE FORMED. THIS FOG
HAS BECOME LOCALLY DENSE ESPECIALLY OVER THE KEWEENAW AND NEAR LK MI
WHERE THE LIGHT LLVL E WIND IS ONSHORE. THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF
SHOWERS/TS STRETCHING FM SE WI INTO SW LOWER MI...BUT THE
RESPONSIBLE SHRTWV/AREA OF H85 THETA E ADVECTION ARE ON TRACK TO
PASS FAR ENUF TO THE SE SO THAT THIS PCPN SHOULD MISS THE CWA.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...A SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE WRN TROF IS MOVING THRU
THE NRN ROCKIES AND BRINGING SOME SHOWERS/TS AS FAR E AS THE NRN
PLAINS.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON FOG/LO CLDS AND ALSO
POPS MAINLY LATE TNGT AS THE SHRTWV IN THE NRN ROCKIES WITHIN THE
SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE UPR TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FNT APRCH FM THE W.
TODAY...UPR MI WL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LARGER SCALE QVECTOR
DVGC/H85-5 DRYING UNDER SHRTWV RDG AXIS. HOW PERSISTENT FOG/LO CLDS
WL BE IS THUS THE MAIN CONCERN. GIVEN THE HI JUN SUN ANGLE AND THE
ABSENCE OF THICKER MID CLDS...EXPECT DAYTIME HEATING TO GRDLY LIFT
THE LO CLD CIG/FOG BY NOON AT MOST PLACES. BEST CHC FOR MORE
PERSISTENT FOG/STRATUS WL BE ALONG THE LK SHORES...WHERE PROXIMITY
TO CHILLY WATERS WL MAINTAIN HIER NEAR SFC RH. WL ISSUE AN SPS TO
HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DENSE FOG THIS MRNG FOR THE
KEWEENAW AND NEAR LK MI. PREVIOUS FCST HAD SOME MRNG DRIZZLE...OPTED
TO MAINTAIN THIS FCST. A FEW MODELS ALSO GENERATE SOME QPF/SHOWERS
OVER THE MAINLY THE E HALF THIS AFTN IN AREA OF CNVGC BTWN LK BREEZES
OFF LKS SUP AND MI...BUT FCST SDNGS SHOW SUCH AN IMPRESSIVE
SUBSIDENCE INVRN THAT THIS OUTCOME SEEMS UNLIKELY.
TONIGHT...EXPECT AT LEAST PATCHY FOG TO REDEVELOP TNGT WITH
NOCTURNAL COOLING AS MID LVL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE ARE FCST TO REMAIN
IN PLACE THRU AT LEAST 06Z. BUT LATE TNGT...ARRIVAL OF SOME DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC/MID LVL MSTR OVER THE W IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV NOW OVER
THE NRN ROCKIES MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS. SINCE MUCAPE IS FCST TO BE
NO HIER THAN ABOUT 250 J/KG AND THE MSTR RIBBON WL BE ARRIVING IN
ABSENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING...DID NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF TS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
LOW PRESSURE PUSHING ACROSS HUDSON BAY WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT OVER
THE REGION MONDAY /OVER THE FAR W THIRD OF THE CWA AROUND 12Z
MONDAY/...AND THE E AROUND 18Z/. COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
FRONT MOVES OVER THE E HALF...WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE OFF BOTH LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MI AND BETTER
INSTABILITY WITH DAYTIME HEATING. CAPE VALUES LOOK TO TOP OUT 200-
400J/KG CENTRAL AND E.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND INTO E MT MONDAY
MORNING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE N PLAINS...AND SHIFT OVER UPPER MI
TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY EXIT E TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER
SHOULD BE THE RULE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. EXPECT
LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH CENTERED OVER E UPPER MI
AT 06Z WEDNESDAY SHIFTS E. PW VALUES THERE WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN
THE 0.3 TO 0.5IN...WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 9-10C. LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S LOOKING REASONABLE FOR MORNING LOWS /ESPECIALLY FOR THE
TRADITIONAL COOL FIRE WX SITES/.
AS FOR MIDWEEK...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE NEARING...BUT THERE IS PLENTY
OF DISCREPANCIES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH. STARTING AT AROUND 00Z
THURSDAY THE GFS LOOKS TO BE AROUND 12HRS FASTER THAN BOTH THE 00Z
RUNS OF THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF WITH THE SFC LOW ACROSS ONTARIO. WILL
OPT TO GO WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION. WHILE THE STRONGER FEATURES WILL
REMAIN CLOSER TO HUDSON BAY...AND S INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEY...A SHORTWAVE IN THE OTHERWISE MAINLY ZONAL FLOW WILL
SHIFT IN. GIVEN THE STORMS LIKELY TO OUR S IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO
SEE IF ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO SURGE IN TO WARRANT THE HIGH
END CHANCE POPS. KEPT THESE HIGHER POPS MAINLY INLAND FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR. ANOTHER SYSTEM SLIDING IN FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY LOOKS
TO BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. KEPT THE CHANCE
WORDING FOR THUNDERSTORMS...AND HIGHLIGHTED THEM IN THE HWO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE THREE TAF SITES AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD...BUT DRIER AIR FROM A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD START TO DIMINISH THE CLOUDS OVER THE
NEXT 6 HOURS. THIS DIMINISHMENT WILL AFFECT KIWD FIRST AND THEN TRY
TO MAKE IT TO KCMX/KSAW. BOTH SITES MAY STRUGGLE TO COMPLETELY
ESCAPE THE MVFR CLOUDS...BUT WENT WITH A MORE OPTIMISTIC FORECAST.
AS THE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT...THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL INCREASE
LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE CONTINUED TO
SHOW VISIBILITIES FALLING TO IFR VALUES...BUT COULD SEE PERIODS OF
LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IF THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT COMPLETELY.
FINALLY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. EXPECT IT TO HAVE THE GREATEST INFLUENCE ON KIWD/KSAW AND
HAVE WENT WITH -SHRA AT THOSE SITES. THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH
THESE SHOWERS AT KIWD LATE TONIGHT AND KSAW LATE IN THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
PRESSURE CHANGES ARE MINIMAL...LEADING TO WINDS LESS THAN 25KTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD /OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS/. FOG WILL REMAIN
AN OFF AND ON CONCERN ALONG THE SHORELINE AND E THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. EXPECTING MORE WIDESPREAD FOG TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS FAR NE MANITOBA TODAY TO SLIDE
INTO HUDSON BAY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WHILE DRAGGING A TROUGH
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE N PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE
MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH WILL LIKELY
SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE A RIDGE BUILDS IN ON THURSDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ MONDAY FOR LSZ162.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ MONDAY FOR
LSZ240>244-263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
308 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
MAIN CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM IS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES AREA OF SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM
INL TO NEAR BJI MOVING EAST. THIS AREA CONTAINED THUNDERSTORMS
EARLIER BUT HAS DECREASED IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES INTO MORE
STABLE AIR. THE CONCERN TONIGHT IS SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT 20Z...THE
FRONT EXTENDED FROM INL THROUGH BJI TO SAZ. BASED ON THE CURRENT
MOVEMENT AND MODEL FORECASTS...IT WILL MOVE THROUGH DLH SOMETIME
THIS EVENING AND OUT OF NW WI BY MONDAY MORNING. THE AREA OUT
AHEAD OF IT IN NE MN RECEIVED A FEW HOURS OF SUN TODAY AND
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. SPC MESOSCALE PAGE
INDICATES SOME INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPES OF 500-700 AND LIFTED
INDEXES OF -2 TO -3. THE HRRR INDICATES A LINE OF PRECIPITATION
WILL FORM ACROSS NORTHERN MN AROUND 21-22Z BUT FALL APART AS IT
MOVES EAST THIS EVENING. THE TWIN PORTS AND ARROWHEAD REGION MAY
SEE SOME PRECIPITATION BUT IT MAY BE WIDELY SCATTERED.
A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT
CLEARING OUT THE SKIES WEST TO EAST BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING.
THERE WILL STILL BE A LINGERING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN NW WI
MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT PASS THROUGH THAT REGION.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER MIDWEST REMAINS IN A ZONAL FLOW WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVES THAT TRANSLATE OVER THE REGION.
AN AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OVER MINNESOTA MONDAY
NIGHT...SETTLING OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL
RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS.
THE NEXT WAVE WILL TRANSLATE EAST OUT OF THE DAKOTAS AND INTO
WESTERN MN TUESDAY NIGHT...TRACKING OVER THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY.
THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS WAVE IS STILL SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN...BUT AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION...EAST ACROSS
THE ST CROIX RIVER VALLEY AND OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A COLD FRONT DROP OUT OF
CANADA AND BRINGS ANOTHER SHOT FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
WITH THE CANADIAN AIR MASS.
THE LATEST ECM/GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT WAVE WITH
AN H85 CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE EAST ALONG THE
CANADIAN/NORTH DAKOTA BORDER LATE IN THE WEEK...SWEEPING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME
FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
STRATUS AND FOG OVER THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING HAS CONDITIONS
VARYING FROM MVFR AT KHYR IN STRATUS...TO IFR IN FOG AND STRATUS
FOR KLH AND KHIB...TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR KINL AND KBRD. FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY ABOUT 15Z...AND THE STRATUS IS SLOWLY
MOVING EAST AND SHOULD BE MIXED OUT AND RETURN TO VFR BETWEEN 15Z
AND 17Z. A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA SHOULD BRING SHOWERS
INTO THE TERMINALS AFTER 18Z...WITH AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY
THROUGH 00Z WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 00Z...BRINGING MVFR VISIBILITIES
AND CIGS. TIMING AND INTENSITY SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN SO HAVE KEPT TO
VCTS AND SOME PROB30 GROUPS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 56 74 47 66 / 60 10 0 0
INL 50 70 41 73 / 30 10 0 0
BRD 58 76 49 73 / 60 10 0 20
HYR 57 78 47 73 / 50 50 0 10
ASX 51 74 47 66 / 40 50 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT MONDAY FOR LSZ121-140>148.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...LE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1234 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE FOG EARLY AND THEN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES ALONG COLD FRONT.
FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER AREAS THAT CLEARED AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAINLY
OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA. VISIBILITY HAS DROPPED TO
1/2SM OR LESS AT TIMES...AND THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE TREND EARLY
THIS MORNING. WILL MENTION PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG THROUGH ABOUT 13Z.
LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS SHOWING MAIN SCATTERED CONVECTION
LIFTING WELL NORTHWEST OF THE CWA ALONG AND BEHIND THE MAIN SURFACE
COLD FRONT. EXPECT THIS EAST NORTH DAKOTAS ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NORTH
OF THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING. THE LATEST HRRR DID SHOW
SOME SHOWER POSSIBILITY INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST CWA THIS
MORNING...BUT THE MAIN SHOW SHOULD BE INTO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THIS MODEL MOVES WHAT APPEARS TO BE A MCV OR VORT MAX ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AT THIS
TIME...INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA THROUGH POSSIBLE 18Z. IT
UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT IT EAST/NORTHEAST AND
SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THE VARIOUS HIRES MODELS THEN MOVE THE FRONT INTO CENTRAL MN BY 04Z
OR SO...A BIT FASTER THAN THE NAM ESPECIALLY...WHICH APPEARS TO BE
THE SLOWEST OF THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS. THE FRONT SHOULD EXIT INTO
WESTERN WI THROUGH 06Z OR SO...WITH AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND OF
CONVECTION. INITIALLY SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS DUE DEVELOP INTO
WESTERN MINNESOTA BY THIS EVENING...WITH GFS MUCAPE PROGGED TO
INCREASE TO AROUND 2000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT/MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES TO NEAR 7.0C/KM AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR 35-40KTS. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AS IT PROPAGATES EAST INTO THE EVENING. SPC`S DAY1 OUTLOOK
OF SLIGHT RISK INTO WEST CENTRAL MN LOOKS REASONABLE AT THE
MOMENT. ALL MODELS INDICATE A WEAKENING TREND OVERNIGHT AS IT
MOVES EAST...AS THE MAIN FORCING DOES RIDE NORTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH THE UPPER JET. SO WILL CONTINUE THE TREND
OF TRAILING OFF LIKELY POPS INTO CENTRAL MN THROUGH 06Z MON.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST HAS INCREASED DURING
THE PAST 24 HOURS AS THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW PRETTY MUCH IN
STEP WITH THE SURFACE AND UPPER AIR PATTERN FOR OUR AREA THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
A COOL FRONT WILL BE MOVING EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FA ON MONDAY.
VARIOUS CAMS SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE MORNING TO
THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE TWIN CITIES ON BACK TO SIOUX FALLS.
THESE WILL DIMINISH OR END DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PASS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MN SHOULD SEE LOWS TUESDAY MORNING IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S.
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO AFFECT THE REGION
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH IN FROM THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TIMING HAS REMAINED VERY CONSISTENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH
LIKELY POPS COVERING MUCH OF THE FA ON WEDNESDAY.
THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD OVER WHAT WAS SEEN A DAY AGO.
THERE LOOKS TO BE A DRY PERIOD ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES BY. THEREFORE...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE REMOVED.
THE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY PERIODS WILL SEE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM MAY CAUSE
SOME PROBLEMS IN THE FORM OF HEAVY RAIN. TO BACK UP...THERE IS A
TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THAT BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF BRING INTO TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THIS FEATURE
MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY LATE IN THE
WEEK. THIS HAS AN AFFECT ON OUR WEATHER SYSTEM COMING IN FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY SLOWING IT DOWN AND STRETCHING OUT A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY JUST TO OUR SOUTH FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AS THIS
OCCURS...WE ARE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
JET...AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WITH THE 925-850MB THETA-E
AXIS POINTING FROM NEBRASKA THROUGH EASTERN MN AND WI. THIS SETUP IS
SIMILAR TO A PREDECESSOR RAIN EVENT WITH A TROPICAL SYSTEM. THE
GFS IS PROGGING PW/S OVER 2 INCHES OVER THE REGION WHICH IS ABOVE
THE DAILY MAX ON THE KMPX SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY. BOTH MODELS SHOW
2-4 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE FA DURING THIS PERIOD AND THIS IS
WHERE THE STORY GETS INTERESTING. A BREAKDOWN ON THE PRECIP TYPE
FROM THE GFS SHOWS THAT THE TOTAL IS DOMINATED BY STABLE PRECIP.
THIS IS SIMILAR TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK WHEN THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS WERE SHOWING HIGH AMOUNTS OF QPF FOR US WHEN THE CAMS
SHOWED IT FARTHER SOUTH. JUST LOOKING AT THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
WITH THE LOW NEAR THE IA/MN BORDER WITH A WARM FRONT TO EXTENDING
TO THE EAST...ONE WOULD THINK THAT THERE SHOULD BE MORE CONVECTIVE
PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH. A CHECK OF THE CIPS ANALOGS FOR 120 HOURS
USING THE GFS SHOWED THE HEAVIEST RAINS WERE FROM IA AND IL ON
SOUTHWARD. WE SHALL SEE. THE END OF WEEK FORECAST DOES HAVE LIKELY
POPS PUSHING EAST AND SOUTH ACROSS THE FA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IS SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN MN
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS AND WHETHER THESE STORMS MOVE INTO
CENTRAL/EC/SC MN DURING THE AFTN/EVENING.
REGIONAL RADAR AND LATEST RAP/HRRR HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
CONVECTION ACROSS FAR WC MN THIS HR. ATMOSPHERE TO THE S/SE OF THE
TWIN CITIES IS DRIER AIR AT MID LEVELS ALLOWING FOR A LOWER
K-INDEX VALUE. BASICALLY SUPPRESSING THE SHRA/TSRA TO MOVE FURTHER
EAST THEN WC/CENTRAL MN DURING THE AFTN. THEREFORE...KEPT ALL MPX
AIRPORT SITES EXCEPT KAXN...TSRA FREE UNTIL THIS EVENING WHERE
BETTER INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ADVECTION DEVELOPS. BASED ON A
WEAKER WIND FIELD IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL BE ISOLD/SCATTERED AT BEST. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH AND SEE IF
ANY LINES/BOW ECHO SEGMENTS DEVELOP...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CONCERNS WITH SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE BEHIND
THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT.
KMSP...
DUE TO DRY MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AND INSTABILITY WEAK
UNTIL THIS EVENING...KEPT TSRA OUT OF THE FIRST 6 HRS OF THE TAF
PERIOD. BEST SCENARIO IS HOLD OFF UNTIL AFT 6Z...WITH A PERIOD OF
1-3 HRS OF SHRA...WITH EMBEDDED TSRA. BY 12Z...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTH WITH SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. CHC OF TSRA LATE. WINDS NE 5 KTS.
WED...MVFR. TSRA/SHRA LIKELY WITH IFR CONDS POSSIBLE. WINDS SE
5-10 KTS BECMG N.
THU...VFR. WINDS N/NNE 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...JLT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
958 AM PDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA TODAY
BEFORE A DRY...WESTERLY FLOW RETURNS FROM MONDAY ONWARD. THIS WILL
BRING HOT CONDITIONS TO THE AREA WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...VEGAS MORNING SOUNDING SHOWED PW VALUE LOWERED ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS PAST 24 HOURS WHILE WARMING ALOFT HAS CONTRIBUTED TO LESS
CAPE AND LOWER LI`S COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. ONE SMALL TOWER HAS
DEVELOPED ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE SPRING MTNS, LESS IMPRESSIVE
AT THIS HOUR COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
12Z NAM IS THE MOST UNSTABLE MODEL TODAY AND LINGERS MOISTURE EVEN
INTO TOMORROW NEAR THE UTAH BORDER WITH LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES.
15Z HRRR SHOWS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST AND
SOUTH OF LAS VEGAS WITH THE POTENTIAL OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS LAS
VEGAS BETWEEN 1 AND 3 PM. AWAY FROM LAS VEGAS, MODELS INSIST LINCOLN
AND MOHAVE COUNTIES WILL AGAIN BE ACTIVE. GUSTY WINDS AND QUICK
BURSTS OF HEAVY RAIN AGAIN THE CONCERN. MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO
THIS EVENINGS GRIDS OTHERWISE FORECAST FINE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...250 AM PDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY EVENING PROVED ACTIVE ONCE AGAIN AS LINGERING MOISTURE LEFT
BEHIND FROM THE REMAINS OF BLANCA CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE
SOUTHWEST AND INTERACT WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED ONCE AGAIN TODAY SO
ISOLATED STORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE. IVE INCREASED POPS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON GIVEN THE RELUCTANCE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO WANE OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS. GREATEST CHANCES ARE AGAIN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
BUT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ALWAYS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SPARK ACTIVITY
IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION....EARLY RUNS OF THE HRRR BREAK
OUT SOME CONVECTION EVEN IN SOME LOWER ELEVATIONS AFTER 18Z SO THE
POTENTIAL FOR ONE MORE DAY OF ACTIVITY IS CERTAINLY THERE.
ON MONDAY...STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING SOME DRIER AIR INTO
THE AREA AND SOME INCREASED STABILITY...SQUASHING ANY REMAINING
CONVECTIVE CHANCES WE HAVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
OTHERWISE...HOT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY WITH VEGAS REACHING INTO
THE 104-107 RANGE AND WARMER STILL ON MONDAY...BETWEEN 105 AND 110.
AREAS ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WILL BE CREEPING INTO THE 110S
AND DEATH VALLEY WILL BE APPROACHING 120 BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN THE FIRST PROLONGED PERIOD OF TRIPLE
DIGIT HEAT IN DESERT LOCALES THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE SOUTHWEST US. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN WILL KEEP THE RIDGE FAIRLY FLAT THROUGH THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK BEFORE THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS
PATTERN WILL YIELD BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS EACH AFTERNOON
THIS WEEK. THIS WILL AID IN MIXING...BUMPING AFTERNOON HIGHS UP A
FEW DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON...YIELDING THE HOTTEST DAYS OF 2015 SO
FAR THIS WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RUN ROUGHLY 6-9 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MID-JUNE...RANGING FROM 103-110 ACROSS MOST DESERT
LOCATIONS...WITH LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS SUCH AS DEATH VALLEY...AND
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY EASILY EXCEEDING 110 AND PERHAPS 115 AT
TIMES THROUGH LATE WEEK. DEATH VALLEY COULD REACH AND EXCEED 120 BY
MID TO LATE WEEK. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT MOST RECORDS WILL
REMAIN SAFE NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES IN THE LAS VEGAS
VALLEY WILL LIKELY APPROACH EXCESSIVE HEAT CRITERIA THRESHOLD OF 110
BY LATE WEEK AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
INDIVIDUALS AND ORGANIZATIONS HERE AND IN OTHER DESERT LOCATIONS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO PLAN AHEAD BY CHECKING AIR CONDITIONERS...VEHICLE
MAINTENANCE...ETC...AS WELL AS EXERCISING HEAT SAFETY DURING THIS
PROLONGED PERIOD. REMEMBER...HEAT IS THE LEADING WEATHER RELATED
KILLER IN OUR CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WITH EASTERLY
COMPONENTS EXPECTED IN THE MORNING HOURS TRANSISTIONING TO SOUTHERLY
AFTER 21Z IN THE 9-12KT RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 18KTS. SOME SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE AIRFIELD DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AND MAY RESULT IN GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS. DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR OUTFLOW RELATED WIND DIRECTION SHIFTS...CONFIDENCE IN
THE WIND FORECAST IS LOW AND WILL DEPEND ON WHERE CONVECTION FORMS.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA AGAIN POSSIBLE TODAY
ESPECIALLY EAST OF A KDAG...KTPH LINE. GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AND
CONVECTIVE TURBULENCE EXPECTED NEAR SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY.
OTHERWISE SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON OF 10-15KTS
ALTHOUGH VARIABLE NEAR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PIERCE
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...OUTLER
LONG TERM...PULLIN
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
322 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH MID WEEK.
THE WORST OF THE HEAT WAVE IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOMEWHAT
LOWER TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO WEAKEN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS
WEEK WILL BE ISOLATED.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY... A WEAK SURFACE HIGH OVER GEORGIA IS A
REFLECTION OF A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. THIS IS NOT A "BERMUDA HIGH" PATTERN AS THE UPPER
RIDGE IS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND A TROUGH ACTUALLY EXISTS
AT THE LONGITUDE OF BERMUDA. THE 850 MB HIGH...ALSO ACROSS
GEORGIA...IS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE AREA PRODUCING A
LIGHT NW WIND ALOFT.
THE SEABREEZE HAS TURNED WIND DIRECTIONS AT THE BEACHES
ONSHORE...BUT WITH ALL THE NW WIND ALOFT THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY IS
HAVING LIMITED SUCCESS MAKING SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS INLAND. ONCE THIS
CIRCULATION DIES AWAY BY LATE THIS EVENING LOOK FOR LIGHT WESTERLY
WINDS TO PREDOMINATE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. UNLESS AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR T-STORM CAN FIRE UP IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS CHANCES
APPEAR QUITE LOW OVERNIGHT.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM. MOS GUIDANCE HAS RACKED UP
CONSISTENT COOL ERRORS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS: GFS MOS IS
AVERAGING 1.4 DEGREES TOO COOL...WHILE THE NAM MOS HAS AVERAGED 2.6
DEGREES TOO COOL. I HAVE CALCULATED STATION-SPECIFIC BIASES AND HAVE
USED THIS TO FORMULATE TONIGHT`S LOW TEMP FORECAST: 74-78...WARMEST
AT THE BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH
OFF THE EAST COAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES UNDER THE RIDGE BUT EACH AFTERNOON THERE HAS
BEEN A SMALL WINDOW OF TIME WHERE MEAGER CONVECTION HAS BEEN ABLE
TO DEVELOP. THIS IS LIKELY DOWN TO THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN. DESPITE THE RIDGING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE CLIMO FOR MID JUNE...APPROACHING 2
INCHES AT TIMES.
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL
FEATURES...SHORTWAVES TOPPING THE 5H RIDGE ARE A BIT TOO FAR NORTH
TO HAVE ANY IMPACT LOCALLY. HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND HEATING WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
GENERATE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON AROUND PEAK
HEATING. SEA BREEZE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE A LITTLE MORE PROGRESS
INLAND MON AND TUE THAN IT HAS IN THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE NORTHWEST
FLOW AT 900MB THAT HAD BEEN KEEPING IT PINNED AT THE COAST WILL
HAVE A MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST COMPONENT AND BE A BIT WEAKER. TUE
AFTERNOON APPEARS A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE...ESPECIALLY INLAND WITH
A STRONGER PIEDMONT TROUGH BEING FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE CLIMO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GFS/NAM/ECMWF ALL SHOW A LARGE AREA OF 850 TEMPS AROUND
21C WITH TRANSIENT 22C BULLSEYES MON/TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS
SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS. ALL OF THIS
IS IN AN AIRMASS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. HEAT
INDEX VALUES BOTH MON AND TUE SHOULD END UP SOLIDLY IN THE HEAT
ADVISORY RANGE WITH POTENTIAL FOR THE HEAT INDEX TO REACH
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CRITERIA (110F) ON TUE. AS A RESULT HAVE
ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR MON AFTERNOON. ALSO OF NOTE WILL BE
THE EXTREMELY WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDING AND
FOUS DATA THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOWS ABOVE 80F IN AT LEAST A FEW
AREAS MON AND TUE NIGHTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...SUBTLE HEIGHT FALLS INTO THE WEEKEND SEEMS TO
BE THE STORY OF THE EXTENDED ALONG WITH WHAT WILL BE THE SLIGHT
RELAXATION OF THE HEAT WAVE. IN BOTH THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND
ECMWF...WHICH CONSTITUTE A BIG PORTION OF WHAT WPC IS PREFERRING
FOR THE EXTENDED...HEIGHTS FALL FROM ABOUT 593DM TO 590DM...NOT
THE DEEPEST OF FALLS/TROUGHS BUT WE WILL TAKE WHAT WE CAN GET.
THIS SUBTLE CHANGE HOWEVER MAKES THERMAL PROFILES MORE CONDUCIVE
TO CONVECTION AS 500-700MB LAPSE RATES INCREASE FROM ABOUT 5.9 TO
6.4 DEGREES C BY SATURDAY. ALSO LIFTED INDICES INCREASE FROM ABOUT
MINUS 6 DEGREES C WEDNESDAY TO MINUS 9 SATURDAY. THERE WILL ALSO
BE MORE CATALYST IN THE AREA VIA BOUNDARIES FROM RESIDUAL
CONVECTION AND THE STANDARD PIEDMONT TROUGH/SEA BREEZE FORCING.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH STILL WELL ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY...DECREASES A CATEGORY OR SO FROM TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY
AND COOLS ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO BY THE WEEKEND. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS TREND.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...THE HRRR LOOKS TO BE A BIT OVERDONE AGAIN TODAY WITH
ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED. THE BEST CHANCE WILL PROBABLY BE
OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION...HOWEVER THE COAST HAS THE
BEST PRECIPITABLE WATER...SO THAT COULD BE ANOTHER FOCUS. CONVECTION
WILL END IN THE EVENING WITH LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT WITH
NO FOG EXPECTED. LIGHT MAINLY SOUTHWEST FLOW ON MONDAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH
MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER GEORGIA IS THE
SURFACE REFLECTION OF A MUCH STRONGER HIGH IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. NEITHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE TONIGHT WITH A STAGNANT
WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUING. SEABREEZE WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AROUND
10 KNOTS CURRENTLY WILL GRADUALLY VEER WESTERLY OVERNIGHT WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF AN INCREASE IN SPEED TO NEAR 15 KNOTS FOR SEVERAL
HOURS AFTER SUNSET. SEAS CURRENTLY 2 FEET MAY BUILD TOWARD 3 FEET
FOR A TIME OUT BEYOND 10 MILES FROM SHORE. SHOWER/T-STORM
POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...ELONGATED BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN WESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS...WITH ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST DUE TO
DAILY SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. WINDS WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KT
RANGE MON AND TUE...THOUGH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES ARE POSSIBLE TUE
AS PIEDMONT TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND GRADIENT BECOMES PINCHED. SEAS
2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...STANDARD SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MAIN DRIVERS OF WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE THE BERMUDA HIGH AND THE STRENGTH OF THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH INLAND. THE LATTER FEATURE LOOKS A LITTLE MORE ENHANCED
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HERE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
INCREASES FROM 10-15 KNOTS TO THE LOWER END OF THE 15-20 RANGE.
OTHERWISE SPEEDS WILL SEE THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE. THE INCREASE IN
WIND SPEEDS WILL BUILD SEAS SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY TO A 2-4 FOOT
RANGE...UP FROM 2-3 FEET.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...
ALTHOUGH THIS MAY NOT BE RECORD-BREAKING HEAT IT`S STILL THE FIRST
TIME IN ALMOST 3 YEARS WE`VE HAD THESE KIND OF TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST.
97 98 99 100 101 102 103
WILMINGTON 6/20/14 7/27/12 7/27/12 7/27/12 7/27/12 6/30/12 6/30/12
MYRTLE BEACH 7/24/12 7/24/12 7/28/05 7/27/05 7/27/05 8/17/54 8/17/54
FLORENCE 6/14/15 9/02/14 9/02/14 7/09/14 7/26/12 7/09/12 7/01/12
THIS IS ALSO AVAILABLE GRAPHICALLY ON OUR FACEBOOK & TWITTER PAGES
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR SCZ017-023-024-
032-033-039-053>056.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR NCZ087-096-099-
105>110.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...TRA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
309 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH MID WEEK.
THE WORST OF THE HEAT WAVE IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOMEWHAT
LOWER TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO WEAKEN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS
WEEK WILL BE ISOLATED.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY... A WEAK SURFACE HIGH OVER GEORGIA IS A
REFLECTION OF A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. THIS IS NOT A "BERMUDA HIGH" PATTERN AS THE UPPER
RIDGE IS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND A TROUGH ACTUALLY EXISTS
AT THE LONGITUDE OF BERMUDA. THE 850 MB HIGH...ALSO ACROSS
GEORGIA...IS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE AREA PRODUCING A
LIGHT NW WIND ALOFT.
THE SEABREEZE HAS TURNED WIND DIRECTIONS AT THE BEACHES
ONSHORE...BUT WITH ALL THE NW WIND ALOFT THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY IS
HAVING LIMITED SUCCESS MAKING SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS INLAND. ONCE THIS
CIRCULATION DIES AWAY BY LATE THIS EVENING LOOK FOR LIGHT WESTERLY
WINDS TO PREDOMINATE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. UNLESS AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR T-STORM CAN FIRE UP IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS CHANCES
APPEAR QUITE LOW OVERNIGHT.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM. MOS GUIDANCE HAS RACKED UP
CONSISTENT COOL ERRORS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS: GFS MOS IS
AVERAGING 1.4 DEGREES TOO COOL...WHILE THE NAM MOS HAS AVERAGED 2.6
DEGREES TOO COOL. I HAVE CALCULATED STATION-SPECIFIC BIASES AND HAVE
USED THIS TO FORMULATE TONIGHT`S LOW TEMP FORECAST: 74-78...WARMEST
AT THE BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH
OFF THE EAST COAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES UNDER THE RIDGE BUT EACH AFTERNOON THERE HAS
BEEN A SMALL WINDOW OF TIME WHERE MEAGER CONVECTION HAS BEEN ABLE
TO DEVELOP. THIS IS LIKELY DOWN TO THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN. DESPITE THE RIDGING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE CLIMO FOR MID JUNE...APPROACHING 2
INCHES AT TIMES.
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL
FEATURES...SHORTWAVES TOPPING THE 5H RIDGE ARE A BIT TOO FAR NORTH
TO HAVE ANY IMPACT LOCALLY. HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND HEATING WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
GENERATE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON AROUND PEAK
HEATING. SEA BREEZE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE A LITTLE MORE PROGRESS
INLAND MON AND TUE THAN IT HAS IN THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE NORTHWEST
FLOW AT 900MB THAT HAD BEEN KEEPING IT PINNED AT THE COAST WILL
HAVE A MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST COMPONENT AND BE A BIT WEAKER. TUE
AFTERNOON APPEARS A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE...ESPECIALLY INLAND WITH
A STRONGER PIEDMONT TROUGH BEING FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE CLIMO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GFS/NAM/ECMWF ALL SHOW A LARGE AREA OF 850 TEMPS AROUND
21C WITH TRANSIENT 22C BULLSEYES MON/TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS
SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS. ALL OF THIS
IS IN AN AIRMASS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. HEAT
INDEX VALUES BOTH MON AND TUE SHOULD END UP SOLIDLY IN THE HEAT
ADVISORY RANGE WITH POTENTIAL FOR THE HEAT INDEX TO REACH
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CRITERIA (110F) ON TUE. ALSO OF NOTE WILL
BE THE EXTREMELY WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDING
AND FOUS DATA THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOWS ABOVE 80F IN AT LEAST A
FEW AREAS MON AND TUE NIGHTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...SUBTLE HEIGHT FALLS INTO THE WEEKEND SEEMS TO
BE THE STORY OF THE EXTENDED ALONG WITH WHAT WILL BE THE SLIGHT
RELAXATION OF THE HEAT WAVE. IN BOTH THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND
ECMWF...WHICH CONSTITUTE A BIG PORTION OF WHAT WPC IS PREFERRING
FOR THE EXTENDED...HEIGHTS FALL FROM ABOUT 593DM TO 590DM...NOT
THE DEEPEST OF FALLS/TROUGHS BUT WE WILL TAKE WHAT WE CAN GET.
THIS SUBTLE CHANGE HOWEVER MAKES THERMAL PROFILES MORE CONDUCIVE
TO CONVECTION AS 500-700MB LAPSE RATES INCREASE FROM ABOUT 5.9 TO
6.4 DEGREES C BY SATURDAY. ALSO LIFTED INDICES INCREASE FROM ABOUT
MINUS 6 DEGREES C WEDNESDAY TO MINUS 9 SATURDAY. THERE WILL ALSO
BE MORE CATALYST IN THE AREA VIA BOUNDARIES FROM RESIDUAL
CONVECTION AND THE STANDARD PIEDMONT TROUGH/SEA BREEZE FORCING.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH STILL WELL ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY...DECREASES A CATEGORY OR SO FROM TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY
AND COOLS ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO BY THE WEEKEND. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS TREND.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...THE HRRR LOOKS TO BE A BIT OVERDONE AGAIN TODAY WITH
ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED. THE BEST CHANCE WILL PROBABLY BE
OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION...HOWEVER THE COAST HAS THE
BEST PRECIPITABLE WATER...SO THAT COULD BE ANOTHER FOCUS. CONVECTION
WILL END IN THE EVENING WITH LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT WITH
NO FOG EXPECTED. LIGHT MAINLY SOUTHWEST FLOW ON MONDAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH
MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER GEORGIA IS THE
SURFACE REFLECTION OF A MUCH STRONGER HIGH IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. NEITHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE TONIGHT WITH A STAGNANT
WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUING. SEABREEZE WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AROUND
10 KNOTS CURRENTLY WILL GRADUALLY VEER WESTERLY OVERNIGHT WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF AN INCREASE IN SPEED TO NEAR 15 KNOTS FOR SEVERAL
HOURS AFTER SUNSET. SEAS CURRENTLY 2 FEET MAY BUILD TOWARD 3 FEET
FOR A TIME OUT BEYOND 10 MILES FROM SHORE. SHOWER/T-STORM
POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...ELONGATED BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN WESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS...WITH ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST DUE TO
DAILY SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. WINDS WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KT
RANGE MON AND TUE...THOUGH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES ARE POSSIBLE TUE
AS PIEDMONT TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND GRADIENT BECOMES PINCHED. SEAS
2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...STANDARD SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MAIN DRIVERS OF WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE THE BERMUDA HIGH AND THE STRENGTH OF THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH INLAND. THE LATTER FEATURE LOOKS A LITTLE MORE ENHANCED
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HERE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
INCREASES FROM 10-15 KNOTS TO THE LOWER END OF THE 15-20 RANGE.
OTHERWISE SPEEDS WILL SEE THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE. THE INCREASE IN
WIND SPEEDS WILL BUILD SEAS SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY TO A 2-4 FOOT
RANGE...UP FROM 2-3 FEET.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...
ALTHOUGH THIS MAY NOT BE RECORD-BREAKING HEAT IT`S STILL THE FIRST
TIME IN ALMOST 3 YEARS WE`VE HAD THESE KIND OF TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST.
97 98 99 100 101 102 103
WILMINGTON 6/20/14 7/27/12 7/27/12 7/27/12 7/27/12 6/30/12 6/30/12
MYRTLE BEACH 7/24/12 7/24/12 7/28/05 7/27/05 7/27/05 8/17/54 8/17/54
FLORENCE 6/14/15 9/02/14 9/02/14 7/09/14 7/26/12 7/09/12 7/01/12
THIS IS ALSO AVAILABLE GRAPHICALLY ON OUR FACEBOOK & TWITTER PAGES
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DL
CLIMATE...TRA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1236 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH MID WEEK.
THE WORST OF THE HEAT WAVE IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOMEWHAT
LOWER TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO WEAKEN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS
WEEK WILL BE ISOLATED.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM SUNDAY...VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO FORECAST HIGHS BASED ON
NOONTIME OBSERVATIONS. FIRST CUMULUS HAVE POPPED UP WITHIN THE PAST
30 MINUTES MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS AND
SHOULD BUILD DOWN TO THE COAST OVER THE NEXT HOUR. THE SEABREEZE
CIRCULATION IS JUST BEGINNING WITH SEVERAL MESONET SITES ON THE
BEACHES NOW REPORTING ONSHORE WIND DIRECTIONS. DISCUSSION FROM 945
AM FOLLOWS...
THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO FORECAST CLEAR
SKIES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS IT`S CLEAR AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT
WAY UNTIL WE REACH THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE BETWEEN NOON AND ABOUT
130 PM. THE RUC AND HRRR MODELS ARE SHOWING A HEALTHIER SEABREEZE
CIRCULATION DEVELOPING THAT WHAT LAST NIGHT`S SYNOPTIC MODELS WERE
SHOWING...BUT GIVEN CONTINUED OFFSHORE WINDS AT 925/850 MB I AM
INCLINED NOT TO SHOW A GREAT DEAL OF INLAND MOVEMENT OF THE
SEABREEZE FRONT. BY 5 PM THE BOUNDARY WILL PROBABLY BE 15-20 MILES
INLAND ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA AND 12-15 MILES INLAND ACROSS NE
SOUTH CAROLINA...WITH HUMID SOUTH WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY NOT
PROVIDING MUCH IMPROVEMENT TO HEAT INDEX VALUES. THE GFS MOS
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN MUCH BETTER THAN THAN NAM OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS BUT EVEN IT HAS RUN A LITTLE COOL AT MOS SITES. NO CHANGES HAVE
BEEN MADE TO FORECAST HIGHS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...DANGEROUS AND RECORD BREAKING HEAT DURING
THIS PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH STRADDLING
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH OVER SOUTHERN NC...MUCH OF SC...AND
ACROSS EASTERN GEORGIA...DURING THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SFC
RIDGING FROM THE CENTER OF THE OFFSHORE BERMUDA HIGH WILL EXTEND
WSW INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. AT THE SAME TIME...THE SFC PIEDMONT
TROF WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD. THIS SFC PRESSURE PATTERN WILL RESULT WITH SFC SW-NW
WINDS ACROSS THE ILM CWA...AND SOUTHERLY WINDS CLOSER TO THE
COAST EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING DUE TO THE DAILY SEA BREEZE.
AS FOR MAX AND MIN TEMPS...HAVE STAYED CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY
HOTTER GFS MOS MODEL GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY WITH DAILY MAX TEMPS.
A GOOD CHUNK OF THE FA WILL BE LOOKING AT POSSIBLE 100+ DEGREE
TEMPERATURE READINGS EACH DAY...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST AND THE EFFECTS FROM THE INLAND PROGRESSING AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE. EVEN THOUGH THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL NOT EXPERIENCE
THE AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS THAT INLAND AREAS DO...BUT THEY WILL
HOWEVER EXPERIENCE HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGHER
RHS. WITH THIS SAID...THE AREA INCLUDING THE IMMEDIATE
COAST...WILL BE LOOKING AT PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 104 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE. THIS PLACES
THE FA WITHIN HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND LIKELY ONE WILL BE
ISSUED FOR THIS TIME PERIOD LATER TODAY. FOR THE TIME BEING...A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE UPCOMING DANGEROUS HEAT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM WITH 75-80 DEGREE READINGS
BOTH NIGHTS...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
WHERE LOCAL SSTS ARE NOW IN THE LOWER 80S.
AS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH DAY...HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR EACH AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. THIS TO OCCUR WITH WEAK UVVS ALONG
THE INLAND PROGRESSING SEA BREEZE. THE CONVECTION WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED AND WEAK WITH VERY LITTLE HELP OR SUPPORT FROM ALOFT DUE TO
THE LACK OF ANY S/W TROFS/VORTS PASSING OVERHEAD.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...THE EXTENDED PROGS INDICATE THE UPPER HIGH
AND ASSOCIATED RIDGING ACROSS THE FA WEDNESDAY...IS EXPECTED TO
SLIDE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST LATE THU THRU SATURDAY. THIS A RESULT
OF FORCING FROM A MODEST BUT POTENT UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL S/W TROF
UPSTREAM...THAT PUSHES FROM THE LOWER PLAINS STATES TO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS COME SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...WEDNESDAY AND
POSSIBLY THU WILL BE THE HOTTEST OF THE 4 DAYS IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. WITH RELATIVELY NO CHANGE IN THE MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...THE COMBINATION OF RH WITH AFTN TEMPS WED AND THU
WILL YIELD HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 100-104...WITH A FEW 105
READINGS ESPECIALLY ON WED. OVERALL...WILL SEE DAILY MAXES LOWER
BY A DEGREE OR 2 DURING EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY...WITH THE GFS MOS
GUIDANCE ILLUSTRATING THIS WELL.
WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH PROGRESSING EAST OF THE ILM
CWA DURING THIS PERIOD...UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL S/W TROFS/VORTS WILL
HAVE A CHANCE TO PUSH ACROSS THE FA. THE TIMING OF THIS OCCURRENCE
DURING THE DAY...IE. INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE SEA BREEZE...WILL
BE CRUCIAL IN DETERMINING THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. CURRENTLY
15-20 POPS WED AND THU...THAT INCREASE TO 30-40 POPS FRI INTO
SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...THE HRRR LOOKS TO BE A BIT OVERDONE AGAIN TODAY WITH
ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED. THE BEST CHANCE WILL PROBABLY BE
OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION...HOWEVER THE COAST HAS THE
BEST PRECIPITABLE WATER...SO THAT COULD BE ANOTHER FOCUS. CONVECTION
WILL END IN THE EVENING WITH LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT WITH
NO FOG EXPECTED. LIGHT MAINLY SOUTHWEST FLOW ON MONDAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH
MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM SUNDAY...THE FIRST FEW MESONET STATIONS ON THE BEACHES
ARE REPORTING ONSHORE WINDS AS TODAY`S SEABREEZE SPRINGS INTO
ACTION. MARINE FORECAST WILL SHOW NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHERLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES. DISCUSSION
FROM 945 AM FOLLOWS...
OFFSHORE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS MORNING. AS INLAND TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE UPPER 90S THIS
SHOULD INDUCE A SEABREEZE CIRCULATION TO FORM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
NEARSHORE WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY WITH SPEEDS STILL AROUND 10
KNOTS.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...SFC RIDGING WILL EXTEND WESTWARD FROM THE
CENTER OF THE BERMUDA HIGH TO ACROSS FLORIDA. THIS SFC PRESSURE
POSITIONING WILL RESULT IN WESTERLY WINDS TO START THE DAY THAT
BACK TO THE SSW-SW EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY CLOSER
TO THE COAST DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN RELAXED FOR MONDAY WITH 10 KT WIND SPEEDS COMMON...EXCEPT
NEAR SHORE WHERE THE SEA-BREEZE COULD PUSH SPEEDS TO 10-15 KT. THE
SFC PG IS PROGGED TO TIGHTEN-SOME EARLY TUE THRU TUE NIGHT. THIS
COULD RESULT IN A SOLID 15 KT WIND SPEED. AS FOR SIGNIFICANT
SEAS...THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE LOOKING AT 2 TO OCCASIONALLY 3
FT...WITH 4 TO 5 SECOND WIND DRIVEN WAVES AND A 1 FOOT ESE 11
SECOND PERIOD GROUND SWELL DUKING IT OUT TO WHICH DOMINATES.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...DURING THIS PERIOD...THE AREA WATERS WILL
LIE BETWEEN THE NE-SW ORIENTED SFC TROF OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...AND THE SFC RIDGING THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
BERMUDA HIGH WELL OFFSHORE FROM THE SE U.S....ACROSS THE FLORIDA
COAST. THIS WILL PREDOMINATELY PRODUCE A SW WIND DIRECTION THRU
THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE NOT AS PRONOUNCED...COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS...WITH THE PROGGED TIGHTENED SFC PG ACROSS THE AREA
WATERS WEDNESDAY THRU THURSDAY. WILL NOT ENTIRELY BUY THIS
OUTPUT...BUT WILL MENTION A SOLID 10-15 KT WIND SPEED THRU THE
PERIOD...POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 15-20 KT LATE THU.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FEET...POSSIBLY UP TO 4 FT LATER
THU. WIND DRIVEN WAVES AT 4 TO 5 SECOND PERIODS WILL DOMINATE THE
SIGNIFICANT SEAS. A LESS THAN 1 FOOT...11 SECOND PERIOD...ESE
GROUND SWELL TO REMAIN IDENTIFIABLE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 945 AM SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY NOT BE RECORD-BREAKING
HEAT IT`S STILL THE FIRST TIME IN ALMOST 3 YEARS WE`VE HAD THESE
KIND OF TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST.
...MOST RECENT HOT TEMPERATURE OCCURRENCES...
97 98 99 100 101 102 103
WILMINGTON 6/20/14 7/27/12 7/27/12 7/27/12 7/27/12 6/30/12 6/30/12
MYRTLE BEACH 7/24/12 7/24/12 7/28/05 7/27/05 7/27/05 8/17/54 8/17/54
FLORENCE 6/14/15 9/02/14 9/02/14 7/09/14 7/26/12 7/09/12 7/01/12
FLORENCE INFORMATION UPDATED FOR YESTERDAY`S HIGH OF 97 DEGREES.
THIS INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE GRAPHICALLY ON OUR FACEBOOK &
TWITTER PAGES.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...DL
CLIMATE...TRA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
557 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 515 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF WEAK 3HR PRESSURE FALLS
CONFINED MOSTLY TO SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A 90KT-100KT JETSTREAK PER LATEST
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA
ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SECONDARY/WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHING
FROM BRANDON MANITOBA/CYBR...TO MINOT/KMOT...AND WEST TO
SIDNEY/KSDY MONTANA. RESULTANT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS PULSATING UP AND DOWN PER LATEST REGIONAL/KMOT RADAR
CONTINUES OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL. THE LATEST HRRR VERIFYING WELL
AND REMAINS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH
WEAKENS/DISSIPATES THE SHOWERS THROUGH 03Z MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO SAG TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER BETWEEN 06Z-09Z WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. INHERITED FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN DRY AND
COOL WEATHER FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.
CURRENTLY...QUASI-ZONAL/CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A SECONDARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AS
HIGH RES MODELS EARLIER INDICATED. HRRR AND 4KM NMM WRF GENERATE
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST
OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SO EXPECT WEATHER TRENDING DRY THROUGH THE
EVENING.
FLOW ALOFT REMAINS QUASI-ZONAL WITH DRY AND COOL SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. RESULTANT WEATHER WILL BE PLEASANT...HIGHS 65-75...LIGHT
WINDS...AND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY LOOKS ACTIVE WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVERYDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS. INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...WITH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOWING MINIMAL CAPE AND SHOWALTER
INDICES ABOVE ZERO. THEREFORE...REMOVED THE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY...WITH PRIMARILY RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY.
WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK...SEVERAL FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS
WILL SWING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVERY DAY OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
ADDITIONALLY...WITH SEVERAL COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THIS
WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 515 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH 09Z WITH A MINOR WINDSHIFT TO THE NORTH. A VCSH WILL
CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING AT KMOT...UNTIL 01Z MONDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
325 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN DRY AND
COOL WEATHER FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.
CURRENTLY...QUASI-ZONAL/CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A SECONDARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AS
HIGH RES MODELS EARLIER INDICATED. HRRR AND 4KM NMM WRF GENERATE
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST
OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SO EXPECT WEATHER TRENDING DRY THROUGH THE
EVENING.
FLOW ALOFT REMAINS QUASI-ZONAL WITH DRY AND COOL SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. RESULTANT WEATHER WILL BE PLEASANT...HIGHS 65-75...LIGHT
WINDS...AND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY LOOKS ACTIVE WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVERYDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS. INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...WITH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOWING MINIMAL CAPE AND SHOWALTER
INDICES ABOVE ZERO. THEREFORE...REMOVED THE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY...WITH PRIMARILY RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY.
WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK...SEVERAL FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS
WILL SWING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVERY DAY OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
ADDITIONALLY...WITH SEVERAL COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THIS
WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
COVERAGE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF FORECASTS. OVERALL VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
219 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
CURRENT SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS AXIS OF A 1000 PLUS J/KG MXD LYR
CAPE ALONG THE SD/MN STATE LINE WITH 500 TO 1000 J/KG EXTENDING
INTO CENTRAL MN AND CLIPPING THE FAR SE...HOWEVER THAT AREA IS NOW
CLOUD COVERED AND INSTABILITY SHOULD DECREASE THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTN. RADAR TRENDS SHOW REMAINING ACTIVITY MOVING INTO
NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WITH EASTERN ND CLEARING OUT AND
RECEIVING SUNSHINE. LAST HRRR UPDATE FOR 1 PM FCST HAD GOOD HANDLE
ON THESE TRENDS AND WILL NOT NEED MUCH CHANGE...BUT WILL UPDATE
NEAR TERM WITH LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE PRIOR TO FCST ISSUANCE. THERE
IS CLEARNING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND SOME CU AND MID LEVEL CLOUD
EVIDENT AS A NORTHERN VORT MAX MOVES IN TO SRN MB...HOWEVER THERE
IS VIRTUALLY NO CAPE IN THE AREA. A CELL DID DEVELOP NORTH OF
MINOT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE MORE THAN ISOLD TO WIDELY
SCT. MOST LIKELY AREA FOR ANY ISOLD STORMS WOULD BE DVL REGION UP
TO THE INTL BORDER.
SFC HIGH DROPS INTO REGION ON MONDAY AND SHOULD BRING SUNNY SKIES
BUT A COOL CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S DURING THE DAY...AND CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 40S AS
THE SFC HIGH IS RIGHT OVER THE VALLEY AT 06Z TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
TUE AND WED...WARM ADVECTION PRECIP SPREADS MAINLY ACROSS SD
DURING THE DAY TUE AND LIFTS IN TO OUR CWA BY LATE TUE AFTN.
SHOWALTERS REMAIN 4 OR GREATER WITH MEAN LYR CAPES LESS THAN 100
IN THE FAR SOUTH...SO HAVE CHANGED PRECIP TYPE OVER TO SHRA.
PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO PULL PRECIP OUT OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST LATE WED
AFTN INTO WED NIGHT.
BEYOND TUE/WED SHRA ACTIVITY...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION WILL COME ON FRIDAY. THE GFS IS PROGGING A STRONG SFC
LOW AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THE ECMWF ALSO HAS
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SHOWERS AND STORMS...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS
UNSTABLE AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH DEEP MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD START
OUT A BIT BELOW NORMAL AND WARM TO NEAR NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE SHOWERS AND IF THERE WILL BE THUNDER IN
THE SOUTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS ARE MAINLY VFR AND HAVE
MENTIONED SOME MVFR NEAR HEAVIER SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE A CLEARING
TREND WITH VFR CONDITIONS ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT WITH SOME MID CLOUDS
MOVING INTO THE NORTH ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W/NW IN ALL
AREAS BY LATE TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...DK/SPEICHER
AVIATION...DK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1247 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WEST INITIALLY AND SPREADING EAST
LATER TODAY...DIURNALLY DRIVEN. OVERALL NO BIG CHANGES FROM THE
INHERITED FORECAST.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1014 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY OF
NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. EMBEDDED S/WV RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
MORNING THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN IS PUSHING EAST INTO WESTERN
MINNESOTA. ASSOCIATED RAINFALL AND T-STORMS SHOULD BE MOSTLY DONE
BY 17-18Z ACROSS MY SOUTHEAST AS THIS FEATURES EXITS OFF TO OUR
EAST AND AS THE BOUNDARY MIGRATES TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.
QUASI-ZONAL/CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TODAY AS A DEEP AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. HIGH RES MODELS
INCLUDING THE HRRR AND 4KM NMM WRF GENERATE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE POP 18Z-03Z THEN DRY
AFTERWARDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
MAIN CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE WERE TO ADJUST HOURLY POPS BASED ON
LATEST RADAR TRENDS. BACK EDGE OF PRECIP ACROSS WESTERN ND IS
PROGRESSING FASTER THAN MODELS DEPICTED...SO ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE IS REASONABLE WITH CONTINUING THIS
TREND...EVENTUALLY CLEARING OUR EASTERN CWA BY AROUND 18 OR 19Z.
SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS CONTINUE IN EASTERN MONTANA AND OUR
FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCES ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS SOME INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE AND HRRR GENERATES SOME
LIGHT PRECIP IN THIS AREA LATER IN THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS INVOLVE ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND
TRENDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS TAKING PLACE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94. ONE FAIRLY PERSISTENT LINE OF CONVECTION
HAS BEEN ONGOING FROM SIOUX/GRANT COUNTIES THROUGH EMMONS AND INTO
CENTRAL STUTSMAN. HEAVY RAIN OF 2 TO 3 INCHES IN MANY LOCATIONS
PER RADAR RESULTED IN FLOOD ADVISORIES BEING ISSUED. ANOTHER AREA
OF SHRA/TSRA MOVED INTO SOUTHWESTERN ND AND IS SLOWLY PROGRESSING
EASTWARD...ALTHOUGH THIS AREA IS TAKING ON A MORE STRATIFORM APPEARANCE
ON RADAR WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS PUSH THE WHOLE SYSTEM
EASTWARD...DRYING THE REGION OUT BY 00Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
NAM INDICATED SB CAPE OF 100-300 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE AHEAD OF SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT SAGS SOUTHWARD AND HAVE THEREFORE CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR THUNDER ACROSS THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...DRY AND COOLER WEATHER
EXPECTED TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES CONTINUE TO REMAIN
IN AGREEMENT ON A SHORTWAVE COMING ONSHORE TO THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST ON MONDAY PROPAGATING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE CONSENSUS IS FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH
LESSER COVERAGE NORTH. OVERALL INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL WITH
SEVERE WEATHER NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THEREAFTER...NEAR DAILY
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
COVERAGE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF FORECASTS. OVERALL VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1241 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW WEAKENING FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
STORMS THAT HAVE MOVED INTO W CNTRL AND NW MN THIS MORNING...WITH
EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SE ZONES (SE OTTER TAIL)...WHERE DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CLOUDS HAS GENERATED ONE
SINGLE STORM. SUFFICIENT HEATING HAS ALLOWED IT TOO GROW
SEVERE...BUT ANY MORE STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG OR EAST OF
THIS AREA AS CLOUDS FILL IN THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. PRECIP HAS
DISSIPATED ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN ND...AND WILL REDUCE POPS
CONSIDERABLY FOR THE AFTN HOURS. HAVE ALSO CHOPPED SIGNIFICANTLY
DAYTIME HIGHS AS THE CLOUDS HAVE FILLED IN THE SE ZONES FASTER
THAN ANTICIPATED WHILE THE FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA...WITH
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW UNDERNEATH A THICK CLOUD DECK. TEMPS IN THE
AREA WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE MID 60S AND WARMEST
TEMPS WILL NOW LIKELY BE IN THE FAR NW WHERE IT HAS BEEN CLEAR FOR
SOME TIME AND SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTN...WHEN
SOME CLOUDS CURRENTLY WEST OF MINOT MOVE OVER THE AREA AND COULD
PRODUCE AND ISOLATED STORM OR SHOWER. ALSO DECREASED OVERNIGHT
LOWS AND TOMORROWS HIGHS A DEG OR TWO IN LINE WITH LATEST NAM
GUIDANCE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 906 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOWING CLUSTER OF STORMS AND SHOWERS OVER
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ND MOVING INTO W CNTRL MN. HRRR HAS A
DECENT HANDLE ON STORM TRENDS AND WILL UPDATE POPS (AND INCREASE
IN SE ND) BASED ON ITS GUIDANCE. ALSO MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NW MN BY NOON TIME. SEVERE THREAT TONIGHT WILL
BE VERY DEPENDENT ON WHEN THIS CLUSTER MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN
VALLEY AND OVER THE GRANT CO MN AREA...WHICH WILL INHIBIT HEATING
FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY DESPITE HIGHER BULK SHEAR VALUES
EXPECTED IN THE LATE AFTN. WILL NOT ADDRESS BEYOND 18Z UNTIL MORE
12Z MODEL GUIDANCE COMES IN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
TSRA POTENTIAL TODAY AND TEMPERATURES MAIN CHALLENGES. MODELS
OVERALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SOUTHWARD SAGGING SFC COLD FRONT...ELEVATED BOUNDARY VCNTY
DAKOTAS BORDER REGION AND EASTWARD DRIFTING SFC LOW OVER N CENTRAL
SD ALL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA TODAY.
POSITION OF THESE BOUNDARIES AIDED BY ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER
JET AND MID LEVEL IMPULSES LIFTING NE TARGET THE SOUTHERN FA AS
BEST POTENTIAL FOR PCPN. THIS AFTERNOON THE SFC LOW SHOULD REACH
NE SD WITH BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SE FA. MODEST CAPE AND INSTABILITY
ALONG WITH RESPECTABLE SHEAR COULD RESULT IN A FEW SEVERE STORMS.
APPEARS THE BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH OF THE FA AFT 00Z SO SEVERE WINDOW
MAY BE LIMITED. TEMPERATURES WILL HINGE ON CLOUDS AS BEST PUSH OF
COLD ADVECTION DOESN`T ENTER THE PICTURE TIL LATER TONIGHT.
MOST RAIN SHOULD EXIT THE SE CLOSE TO 06Z. IN ITS WAKE GOOD PUSH
OF COLD ADVECTION WILL SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY MORNING.
COULD SEE SOME UPPER 40 MINIMUMS ACROSS THE NW BY MORNING.
MONDAY WILL BE DRY AND MUCH COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES BLO AVERAGE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S EXPECTED ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTH.
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE PROPAGATING
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AN ASSOCIATED BAND OF MAINLY RAIN
SHOULD GET INTO THE SW FA BY LATE AFTERNOON SPREADING EAST ACROSS
THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT. THUNDER CHANCES LOOK LIMITED WITH THIS
EVENT.
SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH NORTHWEST FLOW INTO
CENTRAL CANADA AND ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN STATES. LONG WAVE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA SHIFTS TO NEAR THE HUDSON BAY
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ZONAL FLOW SHIFT SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE GFS WAS FAST WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THE
GFS WAS ALSO FASTER THAN THE ECMWF THROUGH THU IN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM BUT THE GFS FALLS BACK INTO PHASE WITH THE ECMWF BY FRI AND
SAT. ALSO THE GFS WAS A FARTHER NORTHERN SOLUTION.
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE LAST COUPLE RUNS AND
FARTHER NORTH. WILL BLEND THE TWO MODELS.
HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED A DEGREE FOR WED...LITTLE CHANGE
THU...INCREASED A COUPLE DEGREE IN THE SOUTH FRI, AND INCREASED TWO
TO FIVE DEGREES ON SAT FROM YESTERDAYS FORECAST PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE SHOWERS AND IF THERE WILL BE THUNDER IN
THE SOUTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS ARE MAINLY VFR AND HAVE
MENTIONED SOME MVFR NEAR HEAVIER SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE A CLEARING
TREND WITH VFR CONDITIONS ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT WITH SOME MID CLOUDS
MOVING INTO THE NORTH ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W/NW IN ALL
AREAS BY LATE TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ABERDEEN SD
331 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
MCS HAS MOSTLY LEFT A STABLE ENVIRONMENT IN ITS WAKE...THOUGH A WEAK
FRONT PERSISTS NEAR KATY. HRRR INDICATES A FEW CELLS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THIS FEATURE...BUT WITH A LESS THEN 1000 J/KG CAPE AND WEAK
SHEAR...EXPECT MOST CELLS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN TONIGHT WITH COOL/DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM
CANADA/NORTH DAKOTA. WE COULD SEE A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS MOVE INTO
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA MONDAY...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE DRY BELOW
10KFT. FOCUS SHIFTS TO TUESDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH A WEAK MCS MOVING OVER THE
CWA...THOUGH WITH VERY LITTLE CAPE EXCEPT ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY TUESDAY EVENING. A 40KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT WEAK
CONVECTION/RAIN AS IT PROPAGATES WEST TUESDAY NIGHT. SREF
PROBABILITIES OF 1 INCH OF MOISTURE IS AS HIGH AS 30 PERCENT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY UNTIL
FRIDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. AS FAR AS THE SURFACE
PATTERN GOES...THERE IS SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS WITH THE TIMING OF FEATURES. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
EASTERN CWA WHEN THE PERIOD STARTS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO KEEP CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO RETURN THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...THEN WILL SEE AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES ACROSS THE CWA. GFS CURRENTLY SHOWING CAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 4000 J/KG FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO COULD
SEE A DECENT SHOT AT SEVERE WEATHER. LINGERING SHOWERS SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE MOVING BACK IN LATE IN THE DAY
SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
FOR THE MOST PART...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1221 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015/
DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS/WSR-88D VAD WIND
PROFILES PLACE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES AND A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS
MORNING. AS OF 10 AM CDT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
REGIONAL WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS ALREADY INDICATING SOME WARM
ADVECTION RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS.
LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS STILL INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID SOUTH INTO THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OCCURRING ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. OVERALL FORECAST IS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE AND NO
UPDATES ANTICIPATED AT THIS MOMENT.
CJC
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015/
DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. IS
EXTENDING ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE MIDSOUTH. QUIET ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPS RANGE FROM 70 TO 75 WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS.
TODAY...SIMILAR TO SATURDAY. EXPECTING SOME LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
THIS MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE BY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS CLIMBING TO AROUND 90. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE
SHOULD BE GREATEST ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS AND LESSER TOWARD THE
TN RIVER. THE HRRR SHOWS A SCENARIO SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH A
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE LOWER
MS VALLEY LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING...A LITTLE FURTHER WEST
THAN SATURDAYS ACTIVITY...PROBABLY DUE TO SLIGHTLY STRONGER UPPER
RIDGE. A STRONG STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
TONIGHT...BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION DURING THE EVENING WILL BE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER. MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WILL
DISSIPATE BY MID EVENING WITH ANOTHER MILD NIGHT ON TAP. LOWS 70
TO 75.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE ACROSS
THE REGION SO AFTERNOON/EVENING COVERAGE SHOULD BE A LITTLE LESS.
BEST CHANCES WILL BE AT THE NW EDGES OF THE FORECAST AREAS WHILE
LOCATIONS NEAR THE TN RIVER AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WILL BE
MOSTLY RAINFREE. HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN
RESPONSE TO THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER RIDGE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS DEALING
WITH THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE WESTERN GULF. THE
NAM BRINGS THE SYSTEM THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS AND AND INTO SOUTHERN
MISSOURI TUESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE THE GFS BRINGS IT FURTHER WEST
INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS AND EVENTUALLY TRACKS IT INTO THE MIDSOUTH ON
THU. THE ECMWF IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR THOUGH A LITTLE SLOWER. AS A
RESULT THE FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN SINCE THIS FEATURE WILL
PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN PRECIP CHANCES BY MIDDLE INTO THE END
OF THE WEEK. FOR NOW DISCOUNTED THE FAST NAM AND WILL GO WITH A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. WARM...MOSTLY LOWER
90S...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS NW SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
EXPECT THIS SYSTEM TO INFLUENCE THE MIDSOUTH MORE TOWARD THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AND WENT WITH CHANCE POPS AREAWIDE. CERTAINLY COULD BE
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM AS MODEL PWS ARE GREATER
THAN 2 INCHES AS IT MOVES THROUGH. TEMPS THU/FRI SHOULD BE A
LITTLE COOLER WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODELS HAVE THE SYSTEM EXITING THE REGION BY
THE WEEKEND SO EXPECT A RETURN TO MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION WITH DIMINISHING COVERAGE. TEMPS CLIMBING BACK INTO
THE 90S.
SJM
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS
MOST RAIN/STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MS RIVER...ALTHOUGH MKL COULD SEE SOME LATE AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT
AS WELL. WILL CARRY VCSH THEN VCTS THIS AFTERNOON AT JBR...MEM AND
MKL...WITH PRECIP ENDING A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNSET. WILL ONLY
REINTRODUCE VCSH TOMORROW AT JBR. MKL...TUP AND MEM SHOULD REMAIN
RAIN FREE. WINDS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-15KT.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
330 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...AS DISCUSSED IN THE
MORNING UPDATE...RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CENTRAL CWA...NEAR
SAN ANTONIO IN AN ENHANCED AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE AND DE-STABILIZATION. RICH INFLUX OF HIGH PWAT IS
RESULTING IN HIGH RAINFALL RATES...ALONG WITH SOME TRAINING OF
STORMS NOW ACROSS BEXAR COUNTY. THE PAST SEVERAL HRRR RUNS HAVE
BEEN HANDLING THE TRENDS GENERALLY WELL...WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA...ALONG AND EAST OF A BURNET TO SAN
ANTONIO LINE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. WILL ALLOW THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING HOURS TO BE SAFE.
FARTHER WEST...A FEW MODELS ARE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS COMING OUT OF WEST TEXAS AND NORTHERN
MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
HAVE MENTIONED AGAIN SOME HIGHER POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
FAR WESTERN CWA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE MENTIONED AGAIN EAST OF I-35. LOCALIZED
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
...ALL EYES ON THE GULF OF MEXICO AND POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM...
...HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT AND FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
FORECAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM.
A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFF THE YUCATAN AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. AS OF SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WAS GIVING THE SYSTEM A 70
PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...AND A RECON
FLIGHT WAS ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT OF STEERING THE SYSTEM NORTHWEST THROUGH THE GULF
OF MEXICO...AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S...TOWARDS TEXAS BY TUESDAY. GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY
CLUSTERED AROUND A LANDFALL ALONG THE MID TO UPPER TEXAS COAST.
THERE HAS BEEN SOME WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
AND MEAN WITH THE TRACK. ADDITIONALLY...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
IN THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM...WITH THE ECMWF NOW SLOWER WITH THE
SYSTEM THROUGH THE EASTERN CWA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. ADDITIONAL
CHANGES IN THE TRACK/SPEED ARE LIKELY FROM MODELS OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS UNTIL THE SYSTEM CLOSES OFF.
FOLLOWING A CONSENSUS APPROACH...WPC/NHC COORDINATION...AND
ALLOWING FOR SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR ANY WESTWARD SHIFT...WE ARE
SHOWING LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
BEGINNING AS EARLY AS TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...AND
INTO THE CENTRAL CWA...I-35 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN HILL COUNTRY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY WE ARE
FORECASTING 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6+ INCHES ALONG
AND EAST OF A GEORGETOWN TO KARNES CITY LINE. GIVEN THE HEAVY
RAINFALL THAT HAS FALLEN THE LAST MONTH...AND ESPECIALLY THE LAST
24 HOURS ACROSS THESE AREAS...ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN HIGH IMPACT FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING.
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE CWA FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
IT SHOULD CONTINUED TO BE STRESSED...ADDITIONAL SHIFTS IN THE
TRACK AND ORGANIZATION COULD LIKELY RESULT IN LARGE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST WETTER OR DRIER. PLEASE STAY CLOSELY TUNED TO THE
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE DOES LINGER OVER THE CWA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY ALONG WITH A WEAKNESS ALOFT. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS. POSSIBLE DRYING
TAKES PLACE NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 73 88 73 85 73 / 30 50 40 70 70
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 72 87 73 84 73 / 30 50 40 80 70
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 73 89 74 87 73 / 30 50 40 70 70
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 72 87 72 83 71 / 30 40 30 70 60
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 76 91 75 91 75 / 40 10 20 30 30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 72 87 72 83 72 / 30 50 40 70 70
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 74 90 73 88 73 / 20 30 20 50 50
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 72 88 73 85 73 / 30 50 40 70 70
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 73 87 74 84 74 / 40 60 60 80 80
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 75 89 75 87 75 / 30 40 30 60 60
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 74 90 75 88 74 / 30 40 30 60 60
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
ATASCOSA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...COMAL...
DE WITT...FAYETTE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...
KENDALL...LAVACA...LEE...TRAVIS...WILLIAMSON...WILSON.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TREADWAY
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...RUNYEN
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
102 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.UPDATE...
STORMS LOOK TO REMAIN DELAYED FOR THE MOST PART UNTIL THIS EVENING
AS INITIALLY DISCRETE CELLS IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND EASTERN NEW
MEXICO FORM INTO A MESOSCALE COMPLEX/LINE AND SWEEP ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS REGION. CAPE VALUES WILL BE INCREASING TO OR ABOVE
2000 J/KG ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS WITH GOOD SOLAR INSOLATION
TAKING PLACE. WIND FIELDS REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK...BUT AN ENHANCED
BELT OF MID LEVEL WESTERLIES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THIS EVENING COULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
AMPLE SHEAR SUPPORTING INITIAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO QUICKLY MORPH INTO THE ABOVE MENTIONED COMPLEX/LINE
WITH ARRIVAL OF STRONGER UPPER FORCING THIS EVENING. QUARTER SIZE
HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS.
&&
.AVIATION...
KCDS CONTINUES TO SIT IN THE MIDDLE OF A POCKET OF LOW STRATUS
PRODUCING MVFR CEILINGS...BUT EXPECT THIS TO MIX OUT AND LIFT
WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH FURTHER DIURNAL HEATING. A
LINE/COMPLEX OF STORMS LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH ONCE AGAIN THIS
EVENING...MATERIALIZING FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. HAVE
MAINTAINED TEMPO GROUPS FOR ALL THREE SITES WITH IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS INCLUDED. ALL SITES WILL ALSO SEE THE THREAT FOR MVFR
CEILINGS OR POTENTIALLY LOWER LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS
ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING/PLACEMENT WILL PRECLUDE FURTHER MENTION AT THIS TIME.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015/
SHORT TERM...
WIDESPREAD CLOUD DEBRIS FROM LAST NIGHT/S MCS WAS UNDERGOING
GRADUAL EROSION THIS MORNING FROM W-E. DESPITE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
SOUTH OF A WEAK CLOSED LOW...ADDITIONAL ATTEMPTS AT PRECIP HAVE
BEEN SUPPRESSED BY OVERWHELMING SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE
LARGE MCS. NEAR-TERM QPF ON ALL 00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS WAS VASTLY
OVERDONE IN COVERAGE WITH ALMOST NO SEMBLANCE OF THE MCS WHICH
CONTINUES TO OUR EAST AT 08Z...SO THE PRECIP FORECAST BENEFITS
FROM A HEAVY DOSE OF THE MORE REALISTIC HRRR AND VARIOUS
EXPERIMENTAL WRF MODELS.
POPS THRU 18Z HAVE BEEN DROPPED OVER MOST AREAS AS SUFFICIENT LIFT
IS JUST NOT IN THE CARDS. THIS THEME SHOULD CHANGE LATER TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS A TRAILING VORT LOBE ROTATES SEWD ACROSS THE
REGION SOUTHWEST OF A 700-500MB LOW. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT APPEARS
TO FAVOR THE WESTERN PANHANDLE NEAR THE VORT CENTER WITH
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH IN EASTERN NM.
MUCH OF OUR FOCUS WILL BE ON THE FORMER AS THE MID-LEVEL FLOW
VEERS FROM W TO NW. CAPE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE FORECAST TO BE
EVEN LESS THAN YESTERDAY...BUT VALUES ARE STILL SUFFICIENT TO
FOSTER SOME PULSY SEVERE EVENTS ESPECIALLY IF OUTFLOWS CONSOLIDATE
AND GIVE RISE TO ANOTHER NOCTURNAL MCS AS IS PROGGED BY MOST
EXPERIMENTAL WRF RUNS. POPS WERE RAMPED UP TO HIGH LIKELIES THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT WE/LL RESTRICT THE SEVERE WIND AND
HAIL MENTION TO THE HWO AS THESE THREATS LOOK TO BE VERY ISOLATED
AND MORE MARGINAL THAN RECENT DAYS.
LONG TERM...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE DURING THE DAY MONDAY BUT DIFFER ON HOW FAR SOUTH IT
WILL MAKE IT. SINCE THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE SOME LOW LEVEL LIFT
AND CONVERGENCE...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
OUTFLOW FROM THE STORMS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PUSH THE FRONT FURTHER
SOUTH INTO OUR AREA BUT THE TREND OF LOWERING THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR AVAILABLE WILL CONTINUE. ALSO IMPACTING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON MONDAY WILL BE HOW THE POSSIBLE NOCTURNAL
MCS MENTIONED ABOVE DEVELOPS. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE
FOR THE CAPROCK WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT BUT WILL NOT PUT MENTION OF SEVERE IN AT THIS TIME.
TUESDAY IS A BIT TRICKY FOR POPS AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A
WEAK CLOSED LOW OR TROF AXIS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE REMNANT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE IN THE REGION. THE FRONT DOES LOOK TO
MIX OUT AND RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL BRING
SLIGHTLY HIGHER SURFACE MOISTURE LEVELS BACK INTO PLAY. HOWEVER...
SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN RATHER WEAK AND MAX CAPE VALUES REMAIN AT OR
UNDER 1000 J/KG SO SEVERE THREAT LOOK LOW. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
GOING THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY BUT IT APPEARS THAT WE SHOULD
FINALLY START TO DRY OUT AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES DROP BY TUESDAY
NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN LOW FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST AS WE STAY ON THE EAST SIDE OF AN ELONGATED
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THERE ARE SOME HINTS
THAT A FEW SHORTWAVES COULD RIDE AROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND
MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA IN WEAK NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WHICH COULD BRING A FEW EVENINGS OF ISOLATED STORMS. THERE
REMAINS TOO MUCH VARIABILITY TO FAVOR ANY ONE DAY OVER ANOTHER FOR
INCREASED POPS MID TO LATE WEEK BUT IT APPEARS THAT BOTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY COULD BOTH SEE SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BEFORE FINALLY WARMING BACK UP FOR THE LAST HALF OF THIS FORECAST
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS A BIT OVER THE AREA. RECENT RAINFALL WILL HELP
TO KEEP THINGS FROM HEATING UP TOO FAST BUT THE FLIP SIDE WILL BE
SOME PRETTY MUGGY AFTERNOONS LATE WEEK. ONLY OTHER THING TO WATCH
WILL BE A POSSIBLE COLD FRONT FOR THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
THAT COULD BRING A RETURN OF POPS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING THIS AS A
POSSIBILITY...WILL WATCH AND SEE HOW THE NEXT SEVERAL RUNS EVOLVE
BEFORE MAKING MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
JORDAN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 62 80 61 82 / 70 50 40 30
TULIA 63 80 63 80 / 70 50 50 40
PLAINVIEW 64 80 63 80 / 70 50 50 40
LEVELLAND 65 81 63 83 / 60 50 40 30
LUBBOCK 66 82 64 82 / 70 50 40 40
DENVER CITY 64 82 63 85 / 40 40 40 30
BROWNFIELD 65 82 64 84 / 60 50 40 30
CHILDRESS 68 83 68 85 / 70 60 60 50
SPUR 66 82 65 83 / 70 60 40 50
ASPERMONT 69 87 68 86 / 70 60 40 50
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1240 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.AVIATION...
WHILE THE MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PUSHED OFF TO THE
EAST AND WEAKENED MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAINS AND AROUND BEXAR COUNTY.
FOR AUS...MVFR CONDITIONS NOW WILL RISE TO VFR BY MID AFTERNOON.
SOME OF THE ACTIVITY AROUND SAN ANTONIO WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD SO
HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT AUS FROM 21Z TO 00Z WHEN HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS SUGGEST ACTIVITY SHOULD START TO PUSH EASTWARD. OVERNIGHT
CIGS/VISBY DETERIORATES TO MVFR AGAIN BY 05Z AND DOWN TO IFR FOR
THE MORNING HOURS BEGINNING AT 09Z. MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR TOMORROW SO HAVE COVERED THIS WITH
A VCSH/VCTS FOR THE DAY ON MONDAY.
FOR SAT/SSF...THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON GOING IN AND AROUND THE
TERMINALS CURRENTLY (1730Z). THESE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS SO HAVE INCLUDED BOTH VCTS WITH TEMPO TSRA AT BOTH
TERMINALS. ACTIVITY SHOULD START TO PUSH EASTWARD AND WEAKEN
BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. SAT/SSF WILL
SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO AUS TONIGHT...DROPPING DOWN TO IFR BY
MORNING WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
AT DRT...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH A DRY FORECAST. INTERMITTENT MVFR IS POSSIBLE...AS WE HAVE
SEEN THIS MORNING BUT THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VERY BRIEF.
MORE PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP BY 10Z AND LAST THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY 17Z MONDAY
WITH A CONTINUED DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
TAFS WILL BE UPDATED AS NEEDED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BASED ON THE
DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IN THIS MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1045 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015/
UPDATE...DEEP MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA EARLIER THIS MORNING LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF BANDS OF HEAVY
STREAMER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35/I-37.
TRENDS OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO IN THE CONVECTION NORTH OF I-10
IN THIS AREA HAVE BEEN DOWN AS CONVERGENCE WEAKENS AND FORCING
LIFTS NORTHEAST. BETWEEN 4-9 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS
CENTRAL GUADALUPE COUNTY...WITH ONGOING FLASH FLOOD ISSUES ALONG
GERONIMO CREEK FEEDING INTO THE GUADALUPE RIVER.
TRENDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON ARE GOING TO FAVOR RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO
POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THIS
EARLY MORNING RAINFALL...AS BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ALLOW FOR
DE-STABILIZATION OF A VERY MOIST AIRMASS. 12Z CRP SOUNDING
INDICATED AN UNSTABLE PROFILE ALONG WITH PWATS NOW NEAR 2 INCHES.
ALREADY SEEING EVIDENCE OF RE-DEVELOPMENT THIS OCCURRING NEAR A
SAN ANTONIO/BANDERA TO BEEVILLE LINE. 14Z RUN OF HRRR INITIALIZED
CLOSER THAN MANY OF THE OTHER HI RESOLUTION MODELS...AND SHOULD
THIS VERIFY THE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT SOUTH AND WEST COULD MOVE
BACK OVER AREAS TO THE NORTHEAST THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL
THIS MORNING. FOR THIS REASON...AND OUT OF ABUNDANCE OF
CAUTION...WILL MAINTAIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONFIGURATION AS IS
FOR NOW AND RE-EVALUATE ADDITION OR REMOVAL OF COUNTIES IN THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE AS TRENDS DEVELOP.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 717 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015/
AVIATION.../12Z TAF CYCLE/
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ONGOING ALONG WITH SHRA AND SCT TSRA FOR KAUS
WITH VCSH FOR KSAT/KSSF. AN AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
KAUS THROUGH 815AM LOCAL TIME FOR LIGHTNING IN THE VICINITY.
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS LIKELY NEAR KSAT/KSSF THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. A LULL IN ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
HOURS BUT NEW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND WAS
HANDLED WITH A TEMPO GROUP IN ALL TAFS EXCEPT FOR KDRT. TSRA/SHRA
COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY QUICKLY. MOST
ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. A NEW ROUND OF
SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY EARLY MONDAY MORNING APPROACHING KAUS FROM THE
EAST. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AROUND 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT
AT TIMES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS ARE THE ONGOING CONVECTION THIS MORNING THAT HAS
LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND EXPECTED ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
A SEMI-ORGANIZED TSTORM LINE CURRENTLY EXTENTS FROM KERR ARCING BACK
SOUTHWEST INTO MAVERICK COUNTY ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THIS LINE IS
ORIENTED MORE EAST TO WEST AND HAS A SLOWER FORWARD MOTION ALLOWING
FOR HIGHER RAINFALL RATES LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
HOURLY RAINFALL RATES NEAR 1-2" ARE OCCURRING OVER UVALDE...ZAVALA
AND MAVERICK THAT WILL CONTINUE TO COMPOUND ANY LOCAL FLOODING
ISSUES. THIS LINE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH 5-6AM
WITH OVERALL RAINFALL RATES DECREASING. THE SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG
AND EAST OF US HWY 281 WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THE MORNING HOURS AS THE LOW-LVL JET OF 35-40 KT CONTINUES PER KEWX
VAD WIND PROFILE.
BY 6-9AM...FEEL THE LINE OUT WEST WILL HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED BUT
WILL LEAVE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO BE A LATER FOCUSING TRIGGER FOR
MORE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO AT THIS TIME...THE SCT ACTIVITY
THAT IS NOW ON GOING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AND REGENERATE INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS HEATING TAKES PLACE. WITH LITTLE TO NO CIN...SHALLOW
SHOWERS SHOULD BE QUITE NUMEROUS THIS AFTN. ONCE OUTFLOWS BEGIN TO
PROPAGATE LIKE YESTERDAY...FEEL THESE COLLISIONS AND THE POSSIBLE
LARGER OUTFLOW FROM THE MAIN LINE COULD AID IN PULSE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. MOST SHOULD STAY SUB-SEVERE WITH PROGGED 2000 J/KG AND
WEAK SHEAR /20KT 0-6 KM/ BUT SOME WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH AND SMALL
HAIL COULD BE POSSIBLE. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR ALSO AND WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE HWO. ANOTHER MORE
POTENT ROUND OF TSTORMS SHOULD AGAIN FIRE OVER THE BIG BEND AND WEST
TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR IF
THE SOUTHERN FRINGE MAKES IT INTO VAL VERDE BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
MORE LIMITED THAN CURRENT CONDITIONS THIS TIME TOMORROW.
FOR MONDAY...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING IN THE MORNING
FOR EASTERN AREAS AS THE FIRST OUTER BANDS OF A TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE INFLUENCE THE REGION. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO MOVE INLAND WITH GREATEST SHOWER FOCUS WEST OF US HWY 83
AND ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. OVERALL TOTALS THROUGH MONDAY
SHOULD REMAIN BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES IN LOCALIZED AREAS WITH SOME AREAS
RECEIVING LESS.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
POTENTIALLY MODERATE TO HIGH IMPACTS FROM FLASH AND RIVER FLOODING
COULD BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST
OF I-35...ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN COUNTIES AS A POSSIBLE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE PASSES CLOSE TO THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD RANGE
FROM 2-4 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 5-6 INCHES DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. THIS WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.
GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS ALL AGREE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK
TROPICAL SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF AND TOWARDS THE
TEXAS COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS POINT...IT IS NOT EXPECTED THAT
A STRONG CYCLONE GIVEN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND OVERALL
SHEAR SET-UP. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION BUT THE
OVERALL HAZARDS WILL BE DISCUSSED GIVEN THE MOST LIKELY POSSIBILITY.
THE OP GFS IS MORE WEST TOWARDS BAFFIN BAY WITH EC TOWARDS MATAGORDA
BAY AND NAM FARTHER WEST TOWARDS HOUSTON. GFS ENSEMBLE TRACKS FAVOR
MORE OF AN EC SOLUTION AND FEEL THIS IS THE BEST CONCENSUS AS IT
TRACKS INLAND OVER FAR EASTERN ZONES. THIS POSSIBLE TRACK WOULD
FAVOR HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION. MOST GUIDANCE AGREES THAT HIGHEST TOTALS WILL LIKELY
FALL EAST OF LAVACA/FAYETTE COUNTIES TOWARDS HOUSTON. HOWEVER, FAR
EAST ZONES WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST RISK FOR MULTIPLE PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN. WITH THE SURFACE LOW COMING ASHORE NEAR MID-DAY TUESDAY...THIS
WILL BE THE BEGINNING WINDOW FOR THESE HEAVY RAIN PERIODS TO OCCUR.
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE TIME FRAME WITH
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF IMPACT WEATHER FOR EASTERN ZONES AS HEAVY RAIN
COULD SET UP OVER THIS AREA. WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED 6
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THESE VALUES WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON THE
SURFACE LOW TRACK AND ANY DEVIATION LEFT/WEST COULD RESULT IN MORE
RAINFALL. GLOBAL MODELS DO INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL (HIGHER THAN AMOUNTS
MENTIONED ABOVE) AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL JUST EAST OF OUR AREA AND
TRENDS WILL NEED TO MONITORED CLOSELY.
THE H5 PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A TROUGH WEAKNESS CENTERED
BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGHS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK THAT WILL
ALLOW FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BY THE
WEEKEND...SLIGHTLY STRONGER RIDGING SHOULD SHIFT OVER THE REGION AND
REDUCE RAIN CHANCE TO ONLY 20-30% DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 73 88 73 86 73 / 20 60 40 60 50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 72 87 72 86 73 / 20 60 40 60 50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 73 89 73 88 73 / 20 60 40 60 50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 72 87 71 85 72 / 20 50 30 60 40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 75 92 75 93 75 / 30 20 20 20 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 73 87 72 85 72 / 20 60 40 60 50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 74 90 74 90 74 / 20 40 20 40 40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 72 88 73 86 72 / 20 60 40 60 50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 74 88 74 85 74 / 30 70 40 80 70
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 74 89 75 88 75 / 20 50 30 50 40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 74 90 75 90 74 / 20 50 30 50 40
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
ATASCOSA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...COMAL...
DE WITT...FAYETTE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...
KENDALL...LAVACA...LEE...TRAVIS...WILLIAMSON...WILSON.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TREADWAY
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST OVER WEST-CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. OUTSIDE OF A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS...THE WARM FRONT IS LARGELY
INACTIVE OVER MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
GENERATING SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA...BUT IT IS ALSO QUIET ELSEWHERE ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
CLOSER TO HOME...CLOUD COVER IS GRADUALLY BREAKING UP AS HEATING
HELPS MIX INTO DRIER AIR ABOVE THE INVERSION. CLEARING SHOULD ALSO
WORK INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WI FROM THE WEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TRENDS...AND FOG
POTENTIAL.
TONIGHT...SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STALLED FROM APPROX.
LA CROSSE TO SHEBOYGAN. MEANWHILE...A POCKET OF DRY AIR IN THE MID-
LEVELS WILL EXIST NEAR THE WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT
WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN LATE. THIS DRY AIR SHOULD
KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. THE LONE EXCEPTION
WILL BE OVER N-C WISCONSIN WHERE SOME SHOWERS COULD SNEAK INTO THAT
AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HAVE THOUGHT ABOUT ADDING A CHANCE OF A
SHOWER ALONG THE WARM FRONT...BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT IN THE UPPER
SUPPORT THAT THE NAM PRODUCES. OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLEARING THIS EVENING IF NOT MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...WHICH
WILL PROMOTE FOG FORMATION ONCE AGAIN. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE
REASONABLY LOW EVERYWHERE...SO HARD TO POINT TO A FAVORED AREA.
LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH.
MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND PASS OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI DURING THE MORNING...AND EASTERN WI IN
THE AFTERNOON. PRECIP COVERAGE UPSTREAM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS
NOT IMPRESSIVE...SO DID NOT WANT TO TAKE POPS INTO THE LIKELY RANGE.
BUT THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF JET STREAK DOES PROVIDE SOME UPPER
SUPPORT...SO FELT COMPELLED TO LEAVE PRECIP IN THE HIGH CHANCE AREA.
IF HEATING OCCURS OVER THE EAST...ML CAPES COULD REACH UP TO AROUND
500 J/KG. BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ONLY AROUND 20 KTS...SO ANY
STORMS THAT POP UP SHOULD BE OF THE PULSE VARIETY...WITH LITTLE
CHANCES OF ANYTHING SEVERE. HIGHS WILL APPROACH 80 OVER EASTERN
WISCONSIN...BUT REMAIN IN THE MID 70S OVER THE NORTH WHERE RAIN
COULD OCCUR DURING THE MORNING.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
NEAR ZONAL FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK AND TO SOME DEGREE EVEN
INTO NEXT WEEKEND PROVIDES PCPN CHANCES NEARLY EVERY OTHER DAY OR
TWO WITH TIMING THESE FEATURES THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE. INITIAL
SHORT WAVE SLIDING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND NEAR
THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL DRAG A COOL FRONT EAST OF THE STATE LATER
MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL MODEL TIMING CONSENSUS DEPARTS ANY
CONVECTION TO THE EAST MONDAY EVENING...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE
A MENTION OVER PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN DUE TO THE RRQ
REGION OF THE UPPER JET PASSING OVER.
HIGH PRESS DRIFTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY PRIOR TO THE NEXT SUBTLE SHORT WAVE WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE AREA IS
PROGGED TO PASS OVER FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...A BIT SLOWER
PASSAGE PROBABLY DUE TO GRADUALLY BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS.
ECMWF ALSO DROPS A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS NEXT WEEKEND WHILE THE GFS SPLITS UP THE ENERGY A BIT IN
THE WESTERLY FLOW. NEVERTHELESS...PCPN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL NOT BE
TOO FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA. DUE NOTICE SOME OF THE STABILITY PROGS
SHOW MORE INSTABILITY FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH SATURDAY THE FOCUS
AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH PARTIAL CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST AIR MASS MAY PRODUCE MORE
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......TDH/MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1132 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.UPDATE...
SKIES ARE BREAKING UP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI LATE THIS MORNING.
BUT... CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING UPSTREAM. THE HI-RES MODELS ARE
SHOWING SPECKLES OF PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHERN WI THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE SUPER-MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND FORECAST STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOWING UP ON THE RAP BUFKIT SNDGS. THUS... ADDED
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST.
THIS PERIOD OF RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
IS IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CLEARING
SOUTHEAST WI. THERE IS ALSO A LULL IN THE MID LEVEL VORTICITY
ADVECTION AND UPPER DIVERGENCE. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB UP TO AROUND
80 AND LOWER 80S INLAND. AN ONSHORE BREEZE WILL KEEP LAKESHORE TEMPS
IN THE 70S.
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO SPREAD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI LATE
TONIGHT AND ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN WI MONDAY MORNING. A FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH WI DURING THE DAY AND LEAD TO MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WI MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
IFR CIGS ARE IMPROVING TO MVFR AND VFR FROM NW TO SE THIS MORNING AS
A WEAK FRONT DROPS THROUGH SOUTHEAST WI. THERE IS A PERIOD OF QUIET
WEATHER AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT. DIURNAL CUMULUS
CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING UPSTREAM ALREADY AND EXPECT THIS TO OCCUR OVER
SOUTHERN WI THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA
AS WELL.
MOST OF TONIGHT SHOULD BE DRY... AND PROBABLY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
THEN EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN WI LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING MORE IFR OR LOWER
CIGS AND VSBY. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
AREA AS A FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE STATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON ON MONDAY AS A VERY
HUMID AIRMASS RESIDES OVER THE RELATIVELY COLD WATERS OF LAKE MI.
AREAS OF DENSE FOG COULD CONTINUE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT SINCE
DRIER AIR DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL TUESDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE
SRN AND ERN CWA THIS MORNING ENDING BY LATE MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES AWAY. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH DIFFERENTIAL AVA BRINGING SOME SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING. SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS NEAR 80F WELL
INLAND. A LAKE BREEZE MAY SUPPORT SOME FOG NEAR THE LAKE THROUGH THE
DAY HOWEVER. FOR TNT...A HUMID AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO
FOG REDEVELOPMENT. THERE WILL BE CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS LATE AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY WITH SOME
LEADING PVA AND THETAE ADVECTION AT 850 MB.
MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF UPPER JET COMBINED WITH APPROACHING
SURFACE TROUGH WILL TAP INTO THE PERSISTENT MOIST INSTABILITY TO
PRODUCE MORE SHRA/TSRA. SHORTWAVE AXIS STARTS OFF IN IA AT 12Z AND
THEN SHIFTS ENE INTO SRN LAKE MI BY DAYS END. THE NAM CONTINUES TO
SHOW MUCH HIGHER CAPE VALUES AND PREFER THE MORE SUBDUED LOOK OF
THE GFS WITH CAPE VALUES COMING IN UNDER 1000 J/KG. BASED ON
CONSENSUS OF NAM/GFS/ECMWF WILL LINGER SOME POPS INTO MONDAY
EVENING.
TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE QUIET LOOK WITH SURFACE HIGH
DOMINATING WITH A COOLER AND DRIER NE WIND REGIME. THIS CONTINUES
INTO MUCH OF TUESDAY NIGHT WITH 12Z ECMWF/00Z NAM SHOWING SOME
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE INTO SW CWA LATER IN THE NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM
MODELS SHOW BUCKLE IN THE FAST WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW. MODELS
SHOW SOME ENTRANCE REGION JET ACTION TAKING PLACE WITH TIMING AND
PLACEMENT AGREEMENT ON STORM DEVELOPMENT TO OUR SOUTH. 00Z ECMWF
IS QUITE A BIT FASTER ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WHILE THE
GFS LAGS OUR PRECIP FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEST LLJ FORCING REMAINS
SOUTH AND EAST OF CWA. CWASP NUMBERS ARE QUITE LOW ON THE ECMWF
AND CANADIAN BUT THE GFS DOES SHOW MID 60S TO LOW 70S. GFS ALSO
SHOWS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 WITH BORDERLINE FAVORABLE
BULK SHEAR PARAMETERS. WILL FOLLOW SUPERBLEND POPS FOR NOW WHICH
AS PRECIP BOTH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM
THE GFS AND ECMWF HANG UP THE BOUNDARY CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
POPS FOR SRN WI. MEANWHILE THE GEM SUGGESTS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE. SUPERBLEND HANDLES THIS DISPARITY WELL SO WILL NOT
DEVIATE.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
POTENTIAL FOR MORE TSRA THIS PERIOD AS 850 LLJ STARTS TO AIM MORE
INTO SRN WI WITH PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE REMAINING TO OUR WEST. 925
TEMPS REACH NEAR 20C FRIDAY AND THEN ARE PROGGD TO RISE DEEPER
INTO THE 20S CELSIUS FOR SATURDAY SO POTENTIAL FOR 80S TO MAKE A
COMEBACK WITH EARNEST...ESP ON SATURDAY WHERE 925 FLOW IS DUE
SOUTHERLY AND ANY HEATING MAY YIELD HIGHS DEEP INTO THE 80S.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/....CIGS BELOW 500 FEET ARE BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AREAS OF FOG AND VSBYS OF 1/2
MILE TO 2 MILES. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE ENDING FOR THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY. THE CIGS
WILL GRADUALLY RISE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON
OCCURRING THE LATEST OVER ERN WI. THE FOG WILL ALSO BURN OFF WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF OVER AND NEAR LAKE MI. MVFR VSBYS MAY CONTINUE OVER
KMKE FOR THE AFTERNOON. A HUMID AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO
MORE FOG DEVELOPMENT TNT. PREVAILING VSBYS WILL RANGE FROM 1-3 MILES
BUT LOCALLY LOWER VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE.
MARINE...EXPECT DENSE FOG TO REDEVELOP OVER THE LAKE LATER THIS
MORNING AFTER THE RAIN ENDS AND DEWPOINTS INCREASE. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON ON MONDAY AS A VERY HUMID AIRMASS
WILL RESIDE OVER THE RELATIVELY COLD WATERS OF LAKE MI. AREAS OF
DENSE FOG COULD CONTINUE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT SINCE DRIER AIR
DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL TUESDAY.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT MONDAY FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COLLAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
314 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015
WEAK FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE REGION WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS BEHIND IT. TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE SFC TROUGH FROM
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN COLORADO INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THESE STORMS
ARE NOT MAKING MUCH HEADWAY TO THE WEST AND ARE RATHER STATIONARY.
MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW AN UPTICK IN SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE ALONG AND
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AFTER 00Z. THE HRRR DOES SHOW SOME
STRONGER STORMS INITIATING OVER THE NORTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND
MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CONVERSE AND NORTHERN PLATTE COUNTIES FROM
00-03Z. LAPS ANALYSIS DOES SHOW 1500 J/KG OF CAPE UP THERE ALONG
WITH A BIT STRONGER FLOW ALOFT THAT YIELDS DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF
AROUND 30KTS. THE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT WOULD SUPPORT SMALL HAIL
OR EVEN A MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM THROUGH THE EVENING. THE TSTM
THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY NIGHT (A BIT LATER THAN NORMAL)
OVER MAINLY SOUTHEAST WY AS THE MODELS INDICATE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. GENERALLY HAVE 40-50 PERCENT POPS THROUGH 06Z. ALSO
ADDED PATCHY FOG ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE BY LATE TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH
THIS WILL DEPEND ON ANY ONGOING RAIN.
LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY TO THE EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE IN PLACE.
INSTABILITY IS WEAK OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS IN THE POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS. THE GFS SHOWS THE BEST INSTABILITY ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE
WITH CAPE VALUES OF 1250-1500 J/KG. SPC HAS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WY IN
A MARGINAL RISK AND THIS LOOKS GOOD. STORMS COULD WAIT TO INITIATE
UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE SINCE THERE WILL BE
A GOOD DEAL OF INHIBITION THROUGH THE DAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH CENTRAL WY BY THE EVENING AND MOVE ACROSS EASTERN WY DURING
THE NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE STORMS GOING...SOME
POTENTIALLY STRONG... THROUGH SUNRISE ON TUES ESPECIALLY OVER
CONVERSE/NIOBRARA COUNTIES. THE BEST SVR THREAT IS STILL LOOKING
LIKE TUES AFTN OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE WY-NE BORDER BY THE AFTN WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
EAST OF THE DRYLINE. WITH DEWPOINTS OF 55-60F AND WARM SFC
TEMPS...CAPE IS UP TO 2500 J/KG...AND BULK SHEAR IS 45-50 KTS...A
GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONG SUPERCELLS AND LARGE HAIL.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015
AN ACTIVE PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT STAYING INTACT OVER THE CWA. WHILE MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY
IN THE TIMING/PLACEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES...PERSISTENT LEE
TROUGHING AND PERIODIC LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION EACH AFTN/EVE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE EVENT APPEARS TO BE WED EVENING WITH EXCELLENT
CONVERGENCE AND EASTERLY UPSLOPE NEAR THE SFC. THE GFS SUGGESTS DEW
POINTS IN THE 50S ALONG/EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH SBCAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 1500-2500 J/KG. STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP BOOST 0-6
KM SHEAR VALUES TO 40+ KTS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...SO SEVERE
CONVECTION COULD VERY WELL BE A HAZARD. BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW
LONG IT TAKES TO ERODE THE CAP WITH WARM AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE
WEST. GENERALLY A TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONAL WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. FRIDAY COULD BE RATHER WARM
WITH GFS/ECM H7 TEMPS IN THE 16-18 DEG C RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA BENEATH FLAT RIDGING. LATEST MEX GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPPER 80S
INTO THE MID 90S FROM CYS TO SNY... BUT HARD TO SAY HOW MUCH
AFTERNOON CU WILL IMPACT HIGHS. CONTINUED TO TREND WARMER IN THIS
PATTERN. THINK WE WILL STILL HAVE AT LEAST A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AROUND ON THU/FRI...BUT STRONG CAPPING IS
LIKELY WITH SUCH WARM THERMAL PROFILES. KEPT THINGS ISOLATED FOR
THE TIME BEING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST AREAS TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCALLY MVFR CIGS WILL OCCUR OVER THE KAIA
AND KCDR. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE BENEATH HEAVIER
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALONG WITH GUSTY/ERRATIC
WINDS. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KCYS AFTER 06Z
WITH LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW...MVFR ELSEWHERE THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AFTER A
COOLER DAY ON MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 20-30
PERCENT TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOONS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...ZF