Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/13/15


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
845 PM MST FRI JUN 12 2015 .SYNOPSIS...HOTTER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE COMING WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 105 AND 109 ARE EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK FROM TUCSON INTO THE LOWER DESERTS. ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS INTO MONDAY...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. && .DISCUSSION...DEW POINTS ARE DOWN SHARPLY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...DROPPING MORE THAN 20 DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE TEENS TO LOWER 30S. MUCH LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE NOTED ACROSS SONORA AND WESTERN CHIHUAHUA WITH THIS SPREADING ACROSS THE BORDER INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE HEAT OVER THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS...AND THE CURRENT FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MOS IS TYPICALLY TOO LOW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURE EXTREMES...AND THE THICKNESS LINEAR REGRESSION ANALYSIS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS USUALLY A BETTER INDICATOR. PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. NOTE THAT THERE WAS NO 00Z KTWC SOUNDING THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY NOT BE ANOTHER SOUNDING UNTIL MONDAY AS WE GO THROUGH THE PROCESS OF MOVING MUCH OF THE UPPER AIR INFRASTRUCTURE TO THE NEW BUILDING IMMEDIATELY EAST OF OUR BUILDING. WE APOLOGIZE FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE. && .AVIATION...VALID THROUGH 14/06Z. CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. A FEW CLOUD BUILDUPS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA/-TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS NE OF KSAD. SURFACE WIND EARLY THIS EVENING AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE WLY AT 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KTS. TERRAIN-DRIVEN WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS WILL OCCUR OTHERWISE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS. && .FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH HOTTER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GENERALLY LIGHT TERRAIN-DRIVEN WINDS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF SOME GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS EAST OF TUCSON DURING THE AFTERNOONS. && .PREV DISCUSSION...THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN IS DEFINED BY AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...A SAGGING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...AND A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME CUMULUS ACROSS THE RIM/WHITE MOUNTAINS. ALTHOUGH RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED THAT STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE RIM HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THE WHITES TO RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE...A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE PRESENT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS AS WELL. THIS IS REINFORCED BY THE LATEST HIGH-RES RUNS OF THE HRRR AND UOFA NAM/GFS WRF MODELS WHICH DEPICT WEAK CONVECTION DEVELOPING. STILL LOOKS LIKE WE ARE IN LINE FOR SOME HOT TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LOOKING AT A LOCAL STUDY USING REGRESSION VALUES OF THE 850-700MB THICKNESS AND RELATING THEM TO AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING HIGH TEMPS IN TUCSON IN THE 105- 109 DEG RANGE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT DECREASE FROM THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...CONFIDENCE IS STILL HIGH THAT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE 105 DEGS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK FROM TUCSON WEST INTO THE LOWER DESERTS. GIVEN THE THERMAL LOW OVER SW AZ NEXT WEEK...AS WELL AS A PIECE OF THE UPPER HIGH THAT SPLINTERS OFF INTO NEW MEXICO...MOISTURE WILL CREEP INTO THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE TEMPERATURES...THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME HIGH BASED CONVECTION/DRY STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON EAST OF TUCSON WITH THE THREAT OF STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC STORM OUTFLOW WINDS. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON MEYER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
948 PM PDT WED JUN 10 2015 .SHORT TERM DISCUSSION... LOW PRESSURE AREA CIRCULATING OVER EASTERN CENTRAL CALIFORNIA IS STILL WRAPPING AROUND MOISTURE INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ALONG THE CREST PRODUCING LOCAL HEAVY RAINFALL. MOST OF THE POTENTIAL ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF I-80 PER THE HRRR MODEL BUT RECENT THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NEAR SUSANVILLE MIGHT TAKE SOME SHOWERS FURTHER NORTH TO AROUND QUINCY. HAVE INCREASE POPS OVERNIGHT MAINLY FOR AREAS IN THE MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF I-80 AND AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE CENTRAL PART OF THE LOW SHOULD MOVE OVERNIGHT TO AROUND LAS VEGAS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN DRYING CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT FOR THE SIERRA NEVADA. DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO UTAH AND COLORADO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING BEHIND THE LOW WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND QUICKLY BACK INTO THE 90S. THIS IS WHAT YOU WOULD EXPECT IN THE TRANSITION SEASON WHEN A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. BY FRIDAY THE HEAT WILL BE ON AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE CONTINUING. TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEY 100 TO 105 FOR MOST LOCATIONS BUT THE NORTHERN END OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY MAY TOP OUT BETWEEN 105 AND 110. SATURDAY THE WINDS WILL REVERSE ITSELF AS A TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST HELPS TO BREAKDOWN THE RIDGE A LITTLE. BY SATURDAY EVENING A DECENT DELTA BREEZE WILL HELP TO COOL PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AS WELL. .EXTENDED DISCUSSION (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BRING A FAIRLY TYPICAL QUIET WEATHER PATTERN FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH DRY WEATHER AND SUNNY SKIES, AND HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETS UP WITH A GENERAL TROUGH OVER THE AREA. BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT TIMES WITH DELTA BREEZE KEEPING INFLUENCED AREAS COOL AT NIGHT. EK && .AVIATION... LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. GENERAL VFR ESLEWHERE WITH LIGHT SPRINKLES RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AS OF 03Z. A FEW LINGERING HIGH MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AFTER 03Z. MAINLY DRY WEATHER THURSDAY, EXCEPT A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CREST SOUTH OF AMADOR COUNTY. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
813 PM MDT FRI JUN 12 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 810 PM MDT FRI JUN 12 2015 UPDATED MOST AREAS TO LOWER OR ELIMINATE POPS FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AS CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR SUGGEST MOST TSRA LIMITED TO MAINLY SOUTHERN SANGRES/EASTERN SAN JUANS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 324 PM MDT FRI JUN 12 2015 UPPER TROF PULLING AWAY TO THE EAST WITH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS STILL EXPERIENCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN AREA OF WRAP AROUND. AROUND THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...LINGERING MOISTURE WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S HAS LED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. MLCAPES OFF SPC MESO ANALYSIS ARE AROUND 500 J/KG...AND CONVECTION HAS BEEN FAIRLY WEAK SO FAR...THOUGH CERTAINLY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH CREEKS AND STREAMS RUNNING HIGH IN THE MOUNTAINS...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT SHOULD ANY STRONGER CELLS DEVELOP OUT THAT WAY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE EARLIER HIGH RES MODELS WERE SUGGESTING THIS POTENTIAL. LATER RUNS OF THE HRRR SEEM TO BE BACKING OFF ON THIS POSSIBILITY. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH FOR MOST AREAS LATER THIS EVENING. ON SATURDAY...ELONGATED TROF AXIS WILL STILL BE OVER THE AREA WITH ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST PLAINS DRY OUT WITH LEE TROFING DROPPING SFC DEW POINTS INTO THE 40S ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR WHICH CONSEQUENTIALLY KEEPS CAPE VALUES RELATIVELY LOW. WITH LIGHT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA...DEEP LAYER SHEARS WILL BE ON THE WEAK SIDE AS WELL...SO THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL OFF TO OUR SOUTH. MOUNTAINS HOWEVER WILL SEE ANOTHER SHOT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON...AND WITH LIGHT FLOW ALOFT...STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING. EVEN THOUGH THESE STORMS SHOULD BE PRETTY HIT OR MISS...GIVEN THE HIGH FLOWS IN CREEKS AND STREAMS IN THE MOUNTAINS...THERE ISN`T MUCH ROOM IN THE CHANNELS TO ACCOMMODATE ADDITIONAL WATER FROM RAINFALL...SO FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. SNOW MELT SHOULD CONTINUE IN FULL FORCE WITH NIGHT TIME LOWS STAYING ABOVE FREEZING IN THE HIGH COUNTRY SO RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH. -KT .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 324 PM MDT FRI JUN 12 2015 SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...GENERALLY WEAK WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE STATE WITH A WEAK BAGGY TROUGH SLOWLY TRANSLATING ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE SLOWLY DECREASES ACROSS THE AREA...LEADING TO DAILY CHANCES OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH THE MOISTURE IN PLACE AND THE EXPECTED SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS...MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A CONCERN. THIS...ALONG WITH THE CONTINUED MELTING OF THE HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW PACK...WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MAINLY 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS LOOKS TO SEND A BACKDOOR FRONT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH RESURGENCE OF MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW LEADING TO BETTER CHANCES OF STORMS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO...MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. TUESDAY-FRIDAY...A DRYING TREND COULD BE IN THE OFFING INTO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AS MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST A SLOW DRYING OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND LEAD TO MORE ISOLATED...DIURNALLY AND TERRAIN DRIVEN CONVECTION AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 324 PM MDT FRI JUN 12 2015 VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE KALS TAF SITE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AT THE TERMINALS...WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. SATURDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH KALS MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AT THE TERMINALS. -KT && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 324 PM MDT FRI JUN 12 2015 RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH DUE TO SNOW MELT AND OCCASIONAL ADDITION OF RAINFALL ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND INTO THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. HAVE EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO SATURDAY FOR THE MTS/INTERIOR VALLEYS...AS ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD ADD MORE WATER TO AN ALREADY TAXED SYSTEM. WATER IS STILL OUT OF ITS BANKS ON THE SOUTH ARKANSAS RIVER BETWEEN PONCHA PASS AND SALIDA...AND HAVE EXTENDED THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THIS AREA THROUGH 230 PM SUNDAY...THOUGH THIS MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED AGAIN UNTIL PEAK FLOWS ARE PAST. OTHER RIVERS OF CONCERN INCLUDE COTTONWOOD CREEK...NORTH COTTONWOOD CREEK...CHALK CREEK IN CHAFFEE COUNTY....AS WELL AS CRESTONE CREEK...SAGUACHE CREEK...CONEJOS CREEK...KERBER CREEK ALONG THE SAN LUIS VALLEY EDGES. SUSPECT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL HAVE TO BE EXTENDED UNTIL PEAK FLOWS FROM SNOW MELT PASS. ITS POSSIBLE IT MAY NEED TO BE CONVERTED TO A FLOOD WATCH ONCE RAINFALL IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE...BUT AS LONG AS RAIN IS IN THE FORECAST...MAY JUST LEAVE THE WATCH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO KEEP THE MESSAGE CONSISTENT. RAINFALL ESTIMATES FROM YESTERDAY BASED OFF RADAR SUGGEST 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN FELL SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER ACROSS NORTHERN LAS ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES AMONG OTHER PLACES. THIS WATER WILL BE DRAINING INTO THE ARKANSAS RIVER WHICH IS ALSO RUNNING HIGH...AND ITS POSSIBLE THAT FORECAST FLOOD STAGES WILL CHANGE AS THIS WATER IS ROUTED DOWNSTREAM. -KT && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR COZ058>075-078. && $$ UPDATE...PETERSEN SHORT TERM...KT LONG TERM...MW AVIATION...KT HYDROLOGY...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
706 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT THEN OFF THE COAST SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY BRINGING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBINATION MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... 7 PM UPDATE... TSTMS OVER NEW YORK ARE MOVING NORTHEAST. ALSO WATCHING STORMS OVER NORTHERN NJ. THE ENVIRONMENT SHOWS A SHARP DECREASE IN CAPE BETWEEN THE HUDSON RIVER AND CT BORDER WITH NEGATIVE VALUES FARTHER EAST. SPC RAP PROJECTS 500 J/KG SHIFTING INTO NORTHERN CT THIS EVENING AND DISAPPEARING BY MIDNIGHT. ALSO...MID LEVEL HELICITY SHIFTS EAST INTO THE CT VALLEY. SO A FEW FACTORS OF CONCERN BUT A LOT OF QUESTIONS ABOUT WHETHER IT WILL MATTER. CONVECTION IN NJ EXTRAPOLATES TO HARTFORD COUNTY BETWEEN 9 AND 10 PM. EXTRAPOLATION OF THE LINE IN WESTERN PA BASED ON CURRENT MOVEMENT ON RADAR WOULD BRING IT INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND MIDNIGHT. BUT HOW MUCH SUPPORT WILL BE HERE WHEN THEY GET HERE? WE WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS BUT MAINLY WITH THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. NO OTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THEN LATER TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS SNE AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT. SFC INSTABILITY IS LIMITED BUT MODELS DO SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THIS COMBINED WITH MODEST QG FORCING AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORTS SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE INTERIOR BUT CANT RULE SOME ACTIVITY MAKING IT TO THE COASTAL PLAIN VERY LATE TONIGHT. PWATS SPIKE TO NEAR 2 INCHES AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE WITH ANY TSTMS. IT WILL BE A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY 65-70 DEGREES AND DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S. AREAS OF FOG LIKELY DEVELOPING ALONG THE S COAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... SATURDAY... NAM APPEARS A BIT SLOW WITH THE FROPA SO WE BASED FORECAST ON EC/GFS BLEND. FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING OFF THE COAST AFTER 12Z. EXPECT SCT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLD TSTM IN THE COASTAL PLAIN EARLY IN THE MORNING...OTHERWISE DRYING MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BUT CLEARING PROBABLY NOT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE S COAST. 850 MB TEMPS 13-15C SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST. LOCAL SEABREEZES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL HOLD TEMPS IN THE 70S ALONG THE COAST. SATURDAY NIGHT... HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION BRINGING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. SOME LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP IN NORMALLY FOG PRONE LOCATIONS IN THE INTERIOR. DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL RESULT IN LOW TEMPS IN THE 50S...EXCEPT AROUND 60 IN THE URBAN CENTERS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... BIG PICTURE... UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC AND EASTERN USA WITH TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST USA. THE UPPER JET WAVERS NORTH-SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES DURING THE WEEK WITH TWO SHORTWAVES CROSSING NEW ENGLAND ROUGHLY TUESDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS SUGGESTS A SEASONABLY WARM PERIOD WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTORMS EARLY WEEK AND AGAIN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING SHORTWAVES THIS FAR OUT...WE HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDENCE. THE DAILIES... SUNDAY... HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER CANADA WITH LIGHT FLOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY ALTHOUGH SOME THIN CIRRUS MAY MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MIXING SHOULD REACH TO BETWEEN 800 AND 850 MB. MIXING THE TEMPERATURES AT THOSE LEVELS SUGGEST MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. LIGHT FLOW WILL BRING SEA BREEZES TO THE COASTS WHERE TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE HIGH 60S AND 70S. MONDAY-TUESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE BRINGING A SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND. SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW MOVES EAST ACROSS CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION...CROSSING THE NEW ENGLAND VICINITY ON TUESDAY. THIS DRIVES A SURFACE WEATHER SYSTEM EAST. THE WARM FRONT LEADING THE SYSTEM APPROACHS US LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BRINGING AN AREA OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. VERY JUICY AIR MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH AND OVER THE FRONT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FORECAST AROUND 2 INCHES...OVER 2 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL. TOTALS REMAIN AT OR BELOW 44/LI IS ABOVE ZERO/POSITIVE CAPE REMAINS SOUTHWEST OF CT. SO THUNDER SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST DURING THIS FIRST PHASE. THE SHORTWAVE SWINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH ON TUESDAY. TOTALS REMAIN IN THE LOWER 40S BUT LI DROPS TO AROUND ZERO AND SBCAPES RISE TO 1000-1500 J/KG. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS DURING COLD FROPA. GIVEN THE HIGH PRECIP WATER VALUES...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW HIGH CLOUDS LINGER BUT LOOKS LIKE A FAIR WEATHER DAY. CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN DURING THURSDAY AS ANOTHER WARM FRONT APPROACHES WITH A 35-40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET DRAWING MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE FRONT. LOOK FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A SHOWER. FRIDAY FEATURES ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE FLOW TO OUR NORTH AND PULLING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THIS SUPPORTS ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... TONIGHT...IFR STRATUS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST EARLY TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD INLAND DURING THE NIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW FAR INLAND THE LOW CLOUDS WILL GET. AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE S COAST GIVEN SW FLOW. SHOWERS AND WEAKENING TSTMS MAY BE MOVING THROUGH THE INTERIOR EARLY TONIGHT WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS...THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT. SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR IN THE CT VALLEY BY 12Z. OTHERWISE...IFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT SHOWERS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE MORNING BUT MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTERNOON FOR CAPE/ISLANDS. SAT NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR...BUT LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEABREEZE WILL GIVE WAY TO SOUTH WIND BY LATE AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. SEABREEZE REDEVELOPS BY EARLY AFTERNOON SAT. KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. AN EVENING TSTM POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SUNDAY...VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE. MONDAY-TUESDAY...VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS/TSTMS. AREAS OF IFR IN FOG POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WEDNESDAY...VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. TONIGHT...DECENT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS BUT SFC INVERSION WILL LIMIT GUSTS SO EXPECT SW GUSTS TO REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW SCA. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT OVER SOUTHERN WATERS SO CONTINUED SCA. AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY SOUTH COASTAL WATERS WHICH WILL LIMIT VSBYS. SATURDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE WITH WINDS QUICKLY BECOMING NW LESS THAN 20 KT...THEN BECOMING LIGHT EASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BELOW SCA. SATURDAY NIGHT...QUIET WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS. OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SUNDAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE WATERS WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WARM HUMID AIR MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. INCREASING SOUTH WIND MONDAY AND SOUTHWEST WIND TUESDAY WITH SPEEDS REACHING 20-22 KNOTS. THIS WIND WILL BUILD THE SEAS...WITH 5 FOOT HEIGHTS ON THE OUTER WATERS TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SOME OF THE WATERS. THE HUMID AIR MAY BRING AREAS OF POOR VISIBILITY IN FOG OVER THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND. WINDS WILL START NORTH AND TURN EAST DURING THE DAY...WITH SPEEDS REACHING 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BE LESS THAN 5 FEET. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ255-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WTB/KJC NEAR TERM...WTB/KJC SHORT TERM...KJC LONG TERM...WTB AVIATION...WTB/KJC MARINE...WTB/KJC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
223 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN STALL OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THEY OCCUR. RUC/RAP IS DRY AS IS THE CMC AND ECMWF. THE NAM HAS MINIMAL PRECIPITATION...THE HRRR KEEPS ON STARTING CONVECTION TOO SOON AND FINALLY HAS DELAYED ANY CONVECTION UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. ITS POSSIBLE THAT CAP AT 850 HPA ON KALY SOUNDING AND EVEN STRONGER CAP AROUND 940 HPA ON KOKX SOUNDING MIGHT END UP HOLDING. BASED ON TRENDS HAVE LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY...AND CONVERTED OVER TO COVERAGE WORDING TO TRY TO EMPHASIZE THAT MORE PEOPLE WILL NOT SEE SOMETHING THAN WILL SEE SOMETHING THIS AFTERNOON. STILL ON TRACK FOR INTERIOR AREAS TO REACH THE UPPER 80S-LOWER 90S. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S THOUGH WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES NEAR THE AIR TEMPERATURE. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... FRONT STALLS THROUGH OR JUST S OF THE AREA TONIGHT. SHOWER/TSTMS WILL WIND DOWN DURING THE EVENING AND SHOULD BE OVER MY MIDNIGHT. WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN METRO NY/NJ WHERE LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT ON FRI AND ALTHOUGH IT WON`T BE AS HOT AS TODAY...IT WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER. HUMIDITY WILL ALSO INCREASE UNDER A SLY FLOW. HAVE KEPT THE MORNING DRY AS ANY ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN N AND W OF THE LOCAL AREA...BUT CHANCES INCREASE FROM THE CITY N AND W WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL INCREASE DURING THIS TIME. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST...SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING DRIER WEATHER BACK INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE LOW CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...THEN CHANCE POPS EVERYWHERE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S TO LOWER 90S...THEN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE TERMINAL REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE STALLING JUST TO THE SOUTH. WIDELY SCT TSTMS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS THE FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA. STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT TIMING AND COVERAGE...SO STILL CARRY VICINITY MENTION RATHER THAN SPECIFIC TERMINAL IMPACTS. DIRECT TSTM IMPACTS COULD BE SEVERE WITH BRIEF G50KT POSSIBLE/IFR VSBY. SW TO WSW WINDS 10-15G15-20 KT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME VARIABILITY BETWEEN 240-290 AT KEWR/KTEB...ALSO AT KLGA BEFORE SOUTHERLY SEA BREEZE MOVES IN LATE. SEEING MVFR VSBY IN HAZE AT KHPN. HAZE ALOFT AT OTHER TERMINALS SHOULD DESCEND TO GROUND LEVEL LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING... AND MAY LINGER LONGER THAN FCST. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HAZE ALOFT. TIMING OF VCTS COULD BE OFF BY AN HR OR TWO. DIRECT TSTM IMPACTS COULD INCLUDE G50KT AND IFR VSBY. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HAZE ALOFT. WIND DIR VARIABLE BETWEEN 240-290 TRUE BEFORE SEA BREEZE ARRIVAL. TIMING OF VCTS COULD BE OFF BY AN HR OR TWO. DIRECT TSTM IMPACTS COULD INCLUDE G50KT AND IFR VSBY. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HAZE ALOFT. WIND DIR VARIABLE BETWEEN 240-290 TRUE THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING OF VCTS COULD BE OFF BY AN HR OR TWO. DIRECT TSTM IMPACTS COULD INCLUDE G50KT AND IFR VSBY. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HAZE ALOFT. WIND DIR VARIABLE BETWEEN 240-290 TRUE THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING OF VCTS COULD BE OFF BY AN HR OR TWO. DIRECT TSTM IMPACTS COULD INCLUDE G50KT AND IFR VSBY. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF VCTS COULD BE OFF BY AN HR OR TWO. DIRECT TSTM IMPACTS COULD INCLUDE G50KT AND IFR VSBY. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HAZE ALOFT. TIMING OF VCTS COULD BE OFF BY AN HR OR TWO. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRI THROUGH MON... .FRI...SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON TSTMS MAINLY NW OF NYC METRO... WITH BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE. S-SW WINDS G20-25KT. .SAT...COLD FRONT WILL BRING CHANCE OF TSTMS WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE. W WINDS G25KT. .SUN-MON...VFR. && .MARINE... MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK. SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SW WINDS GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS MAY ALSO APPROACH 5 FEET JUST OUTSIDE THE ERN OCEAN WATERS. WDLY SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVE. WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT BUT SEAS LINGER JUST BELOW 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. GENERALLY EXPECTING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS. CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE AS A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS...WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD BRING SEAS TO 5 FT AND SOME WINDS GUSTS TO 25 KT. && .HYDROLOGY... WDLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVE. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REDEVELOP OVER THE SAME AREA AND PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/24/MALOIT NEAR TERM...MALOIT SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM...BC AVIATION...GOODMAN MARINE...BC/24/MALOIT HYDROLOGY...BC/24/MALOIT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
159 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY SUPPRESSING A STALLING FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY. THE STALLED FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY...USHERING IN A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 112 PM EDT...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY HAS BEEN BUILDING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THESE COUNTIES WHERE 1000-1500 K/JG OF SBCAPE WAS ANALYZED ON THE SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE. MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE LOCAL WRF AND HRRR INDICATE THE BULK OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA BUT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COUNTY BORDERS. SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THERE WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION FOR THE REST OF TODAY. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY HELPING TO SUPPRESS THE STALLING COLD FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING. IT WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA RANGING FROM LOWER/MID 70S ACROSS SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT. TONIGHT...AS SMALL HIGH PRESSURE CREST TO OUR SOUTH...IT LOOKS TO BE MAINLY CLEAR AND COMFORTABLY COOL WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S...WITH PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. NEAR THE I-84 CORRIDOR...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME STRATUS COULD FORM...WHICH WOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES UP A TAD...CLOSER TO 60. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO WORK TO OUR EAST AND WEAKEN ON FRIDAY. A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS FEATURE WILL DRIVE SOME WARM AIR OUR WAY AS H850 TEMPS RISE FROM THE LOWER TO HIGH TEENS. THE DAY WILL START OUT WITH SUNSHINE AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTER FLOW. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS AND WARMER TEMPS ALOFT WILL WARM THINGS UP AT THE SURFACE IN HURRY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO SOAR WELL QUICKLY WELL INTO THE 80S IN MOST AREAS...LOCALLY UPPER 80S IN THE CAPITAL REGION...AND NEAR 90 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY. BTW...WE HAVE NOT HIT 90 OFFICIALLY IN ALBANY SINCE JULY 2 OF LAST YEAR. WITH THE HEATING WILL COME DESTABILIZATION. AT THE SAME TIME...THE MID LEVEL WIND INCREASE PRODUCING 0-6KM BULK SHEARS GREAT THAN 30 KM. IF CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WESTWARD IT COULD BECOME ORGANIZED INTO BOWING SEGMENTS PRODUCING POSSIBLE STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HENCE THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST INTO MARGINAL RISK FOR FRIDAY. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA JUST SCRAPES NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY...THEN GOES FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. MITIGATING FACTORS AT LEAST ON FRIDAY FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A WEAK CAP IN THE ATMOSPHERE...WHICH COULD INHIBIT CONVECTION...BUT MORE LIKELY WILL DO IT SO SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. FOR NOW...WE DID INCREASE POPS TO LOW CHANCES ACROSS THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD...HIGHER POPS (STILL CHANCE) ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AREAS. WE USED ENHANCED WORDING "POSSIBLY CONTAINING GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL" FOR NOW. AS THE STORM MOVES FURTHER NORTH INTO EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AS ENERGY FROM THIS WHOLE SYSTEM WAS DERIVED FROM LINGERING VORTICITY FROM TROPICAL STORM BLANCA...WHICH IMPACTED SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THE BETTER PART OF A WEEK AGO. PWATS LOOK TO RAMP UP TO NEARLY 2 INCHES NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWS ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MUGGY 60 TO 70 RANGE. WE WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY...BUT IT LOOKS TO CLEAR MOST OF OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. IF THE TIMING WORKS OUT SEVERE WEATHER ON SATURDAY LOOKS MINIMAL SINCE DRIER AIR WILL BE FILTERING IN BY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SHOULD THIS SYSTEM SLOW DOWN...THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WOULD INCREASE. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WARM...GENERALLY IN THE 80S... WITH SOME MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD OPENS WITH A COLD FRONT SETTLING WELL SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH A SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDING IN FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES BACK IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE MID WEEK. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL LOWER INTO THE 40S TO M50S SAT NIGHT. H850 TEMPS FALL BACK TO +10C TO +12C. LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M50S TO L60S ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THE SFC HIGH WILL YIELD FAIR AND DRY WX TO CLOSE THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL FOR MID-JUNE WITH U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND 70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A CLOSED H500 SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND LOWER MID ATLANTIC STATES. FLAT RIDGING WILL BE OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND INITIALLY...BUT A SHORT-WAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO SE ONTARIO AND SW QUEBEC TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING BASED ON THE GFS/ECMWF. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE AND A COLD FRONT...AS WELL AS WARM FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN THE FORECAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING DUE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE WPC/ECMWF SCENARIO. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID AND U50S. A WARM AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. A CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH A SFC LOW MOVING INTO CNTRL QUEBEC. INSTABILITY MAYBE LIMITED BY THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. THE GFS HAS THE BEST SBCAPES OF AROUND 500 J/KG FOR LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE U70S TO AROUND 80F IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY...A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS OVER THE UPPER MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY DIPS S/SE FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS HAS THE MID LEVEL FLOW MORE ZONAL OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA IF ENOUGH HEATING OCCURS. AFTER LOWS IN THE M50S TO L60S...HIGH WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...CONSISTENT TREND IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND WPC FOR THE FRONT TO BUCKLE SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA OVER PA...AND LONG ISLAND FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO RIDGE IN FOR THE MID WEEK. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY ZONAL. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG THE SFC RIDGE WILL HANG ON AS WE GO INTO THE LATER PORTIONS OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGHS WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE FOR THE REGION WITH M70S TO L80S FOR HIGHS...AND LOWS WILL BE A TAD ABOVE NORMAL WITH 50S TO L60S. TEMPS LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE LONG TERM...WITH PCPN NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR SOME MVFR FOG EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE REGION WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF KPOU ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NEW YORK CITY METROPOLITAN AREA. THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY. WITH ITS PASSAGE A WARMER AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED INTO THE AREA AND IT WILL PROVIDED A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP...HOWEVER THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED AFTER 18Z/FRIDAY. MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS CLOUDS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. WESTERLY WINDS 8 TO 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY MORNING. OUTLOOK... FRI NIGHT-SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. MON-TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... MAINLY DRY TODAY WITH MODERATE LOW RH VALUES IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MOST AREAS DIPPING INTO THE 30 PERCENT RANGE...SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN OUR NORTHERN AND EXTREME SOUTHERN AREAS. A WEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH...GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY/HIGHER TERRAIN AND CAPITAL REGION. THERE COULD BE A POP UP AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM NEAR A POUGHKEEPSIE TORRINGTON LINE. A NEARLY FULL RECOVERY TONIGHT WITH RH VALUES 75-90 PERCENT AND SOME DEW. A VERY WARM DAY FRIDAY...MORE HUMID THAN TODAY WITH RH VALUES IN MODERATE RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON...40-50 PERCENT IN MOST PLACES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY. SOME OF THE RAIN COULD BE QUITE HEAVY...AND MUCH OF OUR AREA SHOULD QUARTER INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL. DRY WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY AND MUCH OF MONDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... NOT MUCH RAIN FELL IN OUR AREA OVERNIGHT AND IN FACT MOST AREAS DID NOT SEE ANY MEASURABLE RAIN. IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY TODAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS DOWN NEAR A POUGHKEEPSIE TORRINGTON LINE. THESE SHOULD HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON WATERSHEDS BUT COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER. DRY TONIGHT AND THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY. THEN THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY WHERE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THESE COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWAT VALUES RAMP UP TO NEAR 2 INCHES. THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS AND CERTAINLY PONDING OF WATER. ALSO...IF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WERE TO FALL IN THE RIGHT PLACE...THEY COULD TRIGGER SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANKFULL RISES ON SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS...MAINLY FROM THE MOHAWK RIVER NORTHWARD. THERE COULD BE A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY BEFORE THE WHOLE SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTHWARD. DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN SUNDAY AND MOST OF MONDAY. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/JPV SHORT TERM...HWJIV LONG TERM...WASULA AVIATION...IAA FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV HYDROLOGY...HWJIV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
112 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY SUPPRESSING A STALLING FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY. THE STALLED FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY...USHERING IN A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 112 PM EDT...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY HAS BEEN BUILDING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THESE COUNTIES WHERE 1000-1500 K/JG OF SBCAPE WAS ANALYZED ON THE SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE. MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE LOCAL WRF AND HRRR INDICATE THE BULK OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA BUT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COUNTY BORDERS. SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THERE WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION FOR THE REST OF TODAY. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY HELPING TO SUPPRESS THE STALLING COLD FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING. IT WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA RANGING FROM LOWER/MID 70S ACROSS SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT. TONIGHT...AS SMALL HIGH PRESSURE CREST TO OUR SOUTH...IT LOOKS TO BE MAINLY CLEAR AND COMFORTABLY COOL WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S...WITH PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. NEAR THE I-84 CORRIDOR...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME STRATUS COULD FORM...WHICH WOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES UP A TAD...CLOSER TO 60. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO WORK TO OUR EAST AND WEAKEN ON FRIDAY. A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS FEATURE WILL DRIVE SOME WARM AIR OUR WAY AS H850 TEMPS RISE FROM THE LOWER TO HIGH TEENS. THE DAY WILL START OUT WITH SUNSHINE AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTER FLOW. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS AND WARMER TEMPS ALOFT WILL WARM THINGS UP AT THE SURFACE IN HURRY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO SOAR WELL QUICKLY WELL INTO THE 80S IN MOST AREAS...LOCALLY UPPER 80S IN THE CAPITAL REGION...AND NEAR 90 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY. BTW...WE HAVE NOT HIT 90 OFFICIALLY IN ALBANY SINCE JULY 2 OF LAST YEAR. WITH THE HEATING WILL COME DESTABILIZATION. AT THE SAME TIME...THE MID LEVEL WIND INCREASE PRODUCING 0-6KM BULK SHEARS GREAT THAN 30 KM. IF CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WESTWARD IT COULD BECOME ORGANIZED INTO BOWING SEGMENTS PRODUCING POSSIBLE STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HENCE THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST INTO MARGINAL RISK FOR FRIDAY. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA JUST SCRAPES NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY...THEN GOES FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. MITIGATING FACTORS AT LEAST ON FRIDAY FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A WEAK CAP IN THE ATMOSPHERE...WHICH COULD INHIBIT CONVECTION...BUT MORE LIKELY WILL DO IT SO SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. FOR NOW...WE DID INCREASE POPS TO LOW CHANCES ACROSS THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD...HIGHER POPS (STILL CHANCE) ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AREAS. WE USED ENHANCED WORDING "POSSIBLY CONTAINING GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL" FOR NOW. AS THE STORM MOVES FURTHER NORTH INTO EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AS ENERGY FROM THIS WHOLE SYSTEM WAS DERIVED FROM LINGERING VORTICITY FROM TROPICAL STORM BLANCA...WHICH IMPACTED SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THE BETTER PART OF A WEEK AGO. PWATS LOOK TO RAMP UP TO NEARLY 2 INCHES NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWS ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MUGGY 60 TO 70 RANGE. WE WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY...BUT IT LOOKS TO CLEAR MOST OF OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. IF THE TIMING WORKS OUT SEVERE WEATHER ON SATURDAY LOOKS MINIMAL SINCE DRIER AIR WILL BE FILTERING IN BY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SHOULD THIS SYSTEM SLOW DOWN...THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WOULD INCREASE. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WARM...GENERALLY IN THE 80S... WITH SOME MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD OPENS WITH A COLD FRONT SETTLING WELL SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH A SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDING IN FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES BACK IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE MID WEEK. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL LOWER INTO THE 40S TO M50S SAT NIGHT. H850 TEMPS FALL BACK TO +10C TO +12C. LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M50S TO L60S ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THE SFC HIGH WILL YIELD FAIR AND DRY WX TO CLOSE THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL FOR MID-JUNE WITH U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND 70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A CLOSED H500 SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND LOWER MID ATLANTIC STATES. FLAT RIDGING WILL BE OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND INITIALLY...BUT A SHORT-WAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO SE ONTARIO AND SW QUEBEC TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING BASED ON THE GFS/ECMWF. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE AND A COLD FRONT...AS WELL AS WARM FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN THE FORECAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING DUE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE WPC/ECMWF SCENARIO. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID AND U50S. A WARM AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. A CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH A SFC LOW MOVING INTO CNTRL QUEBEC. INSTABILITY MAYBE LIMITED BY THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. THE GFS HAS THE BEST SBCAPES OF AROUND 500 J/KG FOR LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE U70S TO AROUND 80F IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY...A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS OVER THE UPPER MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY DIPS S/SE FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS HAS THE MID LEVEL FLOW MORE ZONAL OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA IF ENOUGH HEATING OCCURS. AFTER LOWS IN THE M50S TO L60S...HIGH WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...CONSISTENT TREND IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND WPC FOR THE FRONT TO BUCKLE SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA OVER PA...AND LONG ISLAND FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO RIDGE IN FOR THE MID WEEK. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY ZONAL. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG THE SFC RIDGE WILL HANG ON AS WE GO INTO THE LATER PORTIONS OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGHS WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE FOR THE REGION WITH M70S TO L80S FOR HIGHS...AND LOWS WILL BE A TAD ABOVE NORMAL WITH 50S TO L60S. TEMPS LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE LONG TERM...WITH PCPN NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH MORNING...STALLING JUST SOUTH OF KPOU. THERE WILL BE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS...AND SOME CU...MOST EXTENSIVE NEAR KPOU WHERE A STRAY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THERE WAS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO EVEN MENTION PROB30 AT THIS TIME. THE WIND WILL SHIFT WEST LATER THIS MORNING...AS THE FRONT WORKS THROUGH. IT WILL TURN BREEZE MAINLY AT KALB AND KPSF BY MIDDAY WITH A WEST WIND 10-15 KTS...GUSTING TO 25KTS AT KALB AND KPSF...LIGHTEST AT KPOU. FOR TONIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST TO OUR SOUTH. WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT (OR NO WIND) SOME FOG COULD FORM. FOR NOW...ONLY INTRODUCE MVFR FOG AT KGFL...AND MIFG (SHALLOW FOG)AT THE OTHER TAF SITES AFTER 08Z. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA. SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... MAINLY DRY TODAY WITH MODERATE LOW RH VALUES IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MOST AREAS DIPPING INTO THE 30 PERCENT RANGE...SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN OUR NORTHERN AND EXTREME SOUTHERN AREAS. A WEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH...GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY/HIGHER TERRAIN AND CAPITAL REGION. THERE COULD BE A POP UP AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM NEAR A POUGHKEEPSIE TORRINGTON LINE. A NEARLY FULL RECOVERY TONIGHT WITH RH VALUES 75-90 PERCENT AND SOME DEW. A VERY WARM DAY FRIDAY...MORE HUMID THAN TODAY WITH RH VALUES IN MODERATE RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON...40-50 PERCENT IN MOST PLACES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY. SOME OF THE RAIN COULD BE QUITE HEAVY...AND MUCH OF OUR AREA SHOULD QUARTER INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL. DRY WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY AND MUCH OF MONDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... NOT MUCH RAIN FELL IN OUR AREA OVERNIGHT AND IN FACT MOST AREAS DID NOT SEE ANY MEASURABLE RAIN. IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY TODAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS DOWN NEAR A POUGHKEEPSIE TORRINGTON LINE. THESE SHOULD HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON WATERSHEDS BUT COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER. DRY TONIGHT AND THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY. THEN THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY WHERE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THESE COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWAT VALUES RAMP UP TO NEAR 2 INCHES. THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS AND CERTAINLY PONDING OF WATER. ALSO...IF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WERE TO FALL IN THE RIGHT PLACE...THEY COULD TRIGGER SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANKFULL RISES ON SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS...MAINLY FROM THE MOHAWK RIVER NORTHWARD. THERE COULD BE A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY BEFORE THE WHOLE SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTHWARD. DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN SUNDAY AND MOST OF MONDAY. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/JPV SHORT TERM...HWJIV LONG TERM...WASULA AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV HYDROLOGY...HWJIV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
111 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN STALL OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THEY OCCUR. RUC/RAP IS DRY AS IS THE CMC AND ECMWF. THE NAM HAS MINIMAL PRECIPITATION...THE HRRR KEEPS ON STARTING CONVECTION TOO SOON AND FINALLY HAS DELAYED ANY CONVECTION UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. ITS POSSIBLE THAT CAP AT 850 HPA ON KALY SOUNDING AND EVEN STRONGER CAP AROUND 940 HPA ON KOKX SOUNDING MIGHT END UP HOLDING. BASED ON TRENDS HAVE LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY...AND CONVERTED OVER TO COVERAGE WORDING TO TRY TO EMPHASIZE THAT MORE PEOPLE WILL NOT SEE SOMETHING THAN WILL SEE SOMETHING THIS AFTERNOON. STILL ON TRACK FOR INTERIOR AREAS TO REACH THE UPPER 80S-LOWER 90S. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S THOUGH WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES NEAR THE AIR TEMPERATURE. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... FRONT STALLS THROUGH OR JUST S OF THE AREA TONIGHT. SHOWER/TSTMS WILL WIND DOWN DURING THE EVENING AND SHOULD BE OVER MY MIDNIGHT. WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN METRO NY/NJ WHERE LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT ON FRI AND ALTHOUGH IT WON`T BE AS HOT AS TODAY...IT WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER. HUMIDITY WILL ALSO INCREASE UNDER A SLY FLOW. HAVE KEPT THE MORNING DRY AS ANY ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN N AND W OF THE LOCAL AREA...BUT CHANCES INCREASE FROM THE CITY N AND W WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL INCREASE DURING THIS TIME. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST...SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING DRIER WEATHER BACK INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE LOW CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...THEN CHANCE POPS EVERYWHERE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S TO LOWER 90S...THEN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE TERMINAL REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE AREA OR JUST TO THE SOUTH. SCT TSTMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA. FOR 15Z AMD SHOWED EARLIER TIMING...BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING/COVERAGE HAVE CONTINUED WITH VICINITY MENTION RATHER THAN SPECIFIC TERMINAL IMPACTS. DIRECT TSTM IMPACTS COULD BE SEVERE WITH G50KT POSSIBLE AND IFR VSBY. SW TO WSW WINDS 10-15G15-20 KT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VARIABILITY INVOF TSTMS. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF VCTS COULD BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO. DIRECT TSTM IMPACTS COULD INCLUDE G50KT AND IFR VSBY. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF VCTS COULD BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO. DIRECT TSTM IMPACTS COULD INCLUDE G50KT AND IFR VSBY. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HAZE ALOFT. TIMING OF VCTS COULD BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO. DIRECT TSTM IMPACTS COULD INCLUDE G50KT AND IFR VSBY. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF VCTS COULD BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO. DIRECT TSTM IMPACTS COULD INCLUDE G50KT AND IFR VSBY. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF VCTS COULD BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO. DIRECT TSTM IMPACTS COULD INCLUDE G50KT AND IFR VSBY. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF VCTS COULD BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRI THROUGH MON... .FRI...CHANCE OF AFTERNOON TSTMS WITH BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE. S-SW WINDS G20-25KT. .SAT...COLD FRONT WILL BRING CHANCE OF TSTMS WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE. W WINDS G25KT. .SUN...VFR WITH SE FLOW DEVELOPING. .MON...VFR WITH S FLOW. && .MARINE... MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK. SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SW WINDS GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS MAY ALSO APPROACH 5 FEET JUST OUTSIDE THE ERN OCEAN WATERS. WDLY SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVE. WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT BUT SEAS LINGER JUST BELOW 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. GENERALLY EXPECTING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS. CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE AS A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS...WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD BRING SEAS TO 5 FT AND SOME WINDS GUSTS TO 25 KT. && .HYDROLOGY... WDLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVE. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REDEVELOP OVER THE SAME AREA AND PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/BC/24 NEAR TERM...MALOIT SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM...BC AVIATION...GOODMAN MARINE...MALOIT/BC/24 HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/BC/24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
851 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015 .UPDATE...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN...NOW LIMITED TO OUR WRN COUNTIES...WHICH THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS COULD LINGER A FEW MORE HOURS WITH INTERSECTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. HAVE UPDATED HOURLY POP GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS. OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED WITH LOW TEMPS UPR 60S TO LWR 70S...EXCEPT MID 70S IMMEDIATE COAST. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. ONLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TOMORROW, AND HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN TAFS DUE TO LOW PROBABILITIES. && .MARINE...NO CHANGES PLANNED IN NEXT CWF ISSUANCE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...GENERATING 10-15KT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND 2-4 FT SEAS. RIP CURRENTS: A LOW TO MODERATE RISK IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE WEEKEND. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 71 96 72 96 / 30 20 10 20 SSI 76 89 76 86 / 10 10 10 10 JAX 71 94 72 94 / 20 10 10 20 SGJ 74 87 74 87 / 10 10 10 10 GNV 71 94 70 95 / 20 10 10 20 OCF 72 95 71 94 / 20 20 10 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ WOLF/SHULER/WALKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
355 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 .SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)... AN U/L TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WITH A STRONG U/L RIDGE EAST OF FLORIDA. THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL GRADUALLY RETROGRADE WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...HOWEVER DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION. LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN NORMAL IN THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST AS MODELS INDICATE DRYING ALOFT TODAY COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH...WHICH IS NOT SUPPORTED BY W/V IMAGERY OR SOUNDING DATA. DRIER AIR IS ADVECTING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE U/L TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...BUT DON`T BELIEVE THIS WILL RAP AROUND TO THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. HOW MUCH DRYING ALOFT WILL OCCUR DUE TO THE APPROACHING U/L RIDGE AND WHEN DOES THE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT START TO TAKE HOLD IS THE QUESTION. GIVEN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AND ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZING ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA ATTM...WILL KEEP POPS ON THE HIGH SIDE WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. TOUGH CALL ON A FLOOD WATCH AS ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS DUE TO HEAVY RAIN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA SUPPORT A FLOOD WATCH FOR A FEW COUNTIES. STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD CREATE FASTER STORM MOVEMENT TODAY WHICH WILL DECREASE THREAT FOR HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS. ALTHOUGH LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS...GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL FORECAST WILL NOT ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY. WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN DUE TO STRATIFIED CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL TEMPORARILY STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE IN THAT REGION...WITH THE LARGE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN GRADUALLY SHRINKING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. SHOULD SEE SEVERAL HOURS BREAK IN ACTIVITY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ATMOSPHERE GRADUALLY DESTABILIZING AGAIN WITH DAYTIME HEATING. NATURE COAST HAS BEEN RAIN FREE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH ATMOSPHERE IN THAT REGION ALREADY DESTABILIZING...AND WILL BE THE INITIAL FOCUS FOR CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND MOVING ONSHORE. NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES EXIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO EARLIER AND ONGOING CONVECTION WHICH WILL HELP INITIATE ADDITIONAL STORMS THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL AGAIN BRING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AS THE U/L RIDGE EDGES WEST OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FRIDAY...IT WILL HAVE GREATER INFLUENCE ON OUR REGION. INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WILL BEGIN DECREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL HOLD THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WILL ALSO ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK ABOVE CLIMATIC NORMALS. .LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)... STRONG MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE POSITIONED GENERALLY NORTH OF THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK...KEEPING A SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND STRENGTHEN...WHICH WILL HELP TO INCREASE HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT INTO NEXT WEEK. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP THE BEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST EACH AFTERNOON...WITH ACTIVITY THEN MOVING OFFSHORE IN THE EVENING. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE A BIT LOWER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD AND THERE IS INCREASED SUPPRESSION IN THE ATMOSPHERE...BUT ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE PRESENT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH OF THOSE AFTERNOONS. && .AVIATION... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL CREATE AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH VFR CIGS DEVELOPING LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON 035-045. && .MARINE... MAIN HAZARD WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND ROUGH SEAS. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 15 WITH SEAS LESS THAN 4 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .FIRE WEATHER... NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 87 75 91 77 / 60 30 50 20 FMY 88 73 91 75 / 60 30 50 20 GIF 88 73 92 74 / 60 30 40 10 SRQ 87 74 88 76 / 60 30 50 20 BKV 88 70 91 73 / 70 30 50 10 SPG 87 76 90 78 / 60 30 50 20 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GULF WATERS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY LONG TERM...05/CARLISLE DECISION SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
350 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 .SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)... AN U/L TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WITH A STRONG U/L RIDGE EAST OF FLORIDA. THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL GRADUALLY RETROGRADE WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...HOWEVER DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION. LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN NORMAL IN THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST AS MODELS INDICATE DRYING ALOFT TODAY COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH...WHICH IS NOT SUPPORTED BY W/V IMAGERY OR SOUNDING DATA. DRIER AIR IS ADVECTING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE U/L TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...BUT DON`T BELIEVE THIS WILL RAP AROUND TO THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. HOW MUCH DRYING ALOFT WILL OCCUR DUE TO THE APPROACHING U/L RIDGE AND WHEN DOES THE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT START TO TAKE HOLD IS THE QUESTION. GIVEN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AND ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZING ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA ATTM...WILL KEEP POPS ON THE HIGH SIDE WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. TOUGH CALL ON A FLOOD WATCH AS ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS DUE TO HEAVY RAIN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA SUPPORT A FLOOD WATCH FOR A FEW COUNTIES. STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD CREATE FASTER STORM MOVEMENT TODAY WHICH WILL DECREASE THREAT FOR HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS. ALTHOUGH LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS...GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL FORECAST WILL NOT ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY. WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN DUE TO STRATIFIED CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL TEMPORARILY STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE IN THAT REGION...WITH THE LARGE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN GRADUALLY SHRINKING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. SHOULD SEE SEVERAL HOURS BREAK IN ACTIVITY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ATMOSPHERE GRADUALLY DESTABILIZING AGAIN WITH DAYTIME HEATING. NATURE COAST HAS BEEN RAIN FREE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH ATMOSPHERE IN THAT REGION ALREADY DESTABILIZING...AND WILL BE THE INITIAL FOCUS FOR CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND MOVING ONSHORE. NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES EXIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO EARLIER AND ONGOING CONVECTION WHICH WILL HELP INITIATE ADDITIONAL STORMS THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL AGAIN BRING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AS THE U/L RIDGE EDGES WEST OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FRIDAY...IT WILL HAVE GREATER INFLUENCE ON OUR REGION. INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WILL BEGIN DECREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL HOLD THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WILL ALSO ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK ABOVE CLIMATIC NORMALS. .LONG TERM... && .AVIATION... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL CREATE AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH VFR CIGS DEVELOPING LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON 035-045. && .MARINE... MAIN HAZARD WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND ROUGH SEAS. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 15 WITH SEAS LESS THAN 4 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .FIRE WEATHER... NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 87 75 91 77 / 60 30 50 20 FMY 88 73 91 75 / 60 30 50 20 GIF 88 73 92 74 / 60 30 40 10 SRQ 87 74 88 76 / 60 30 50 20 BKV 88 70 91 73 / 70 30 50 10 SPG 87 76 90 78 / 60 30 50 20 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GULF WATERS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY LONG TERM...05/CARLISLE DECISION SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
834 AM MDT THU JUN 11 2015 .SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT. A QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE STANLEY BASIN WHICH SHOULD BURN OFF BY AROUND NOON AND DECREASE THE CLOUD COVER AND REMOVE ANY PRECIP CHANCES FROM THE SNAKE PLAIN THIS MORNING. WE ARE STILL EXPECTING AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE HIGHLANDS...A FEW WHICH MAY PRODUCE HEAVY SHOWERS DUE TO THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. HUSTON THE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR ALL OF THE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO WILL KEEP MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD COLORADO AND THE FOUR CORNERS. MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN HIGHLANDS. THE MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING SOMEWHAT ON STORM COVERAGE. THE NAM IS THE SKIMPIEST WITH DEVELOPMENT CONFINED TO AROUND BEAR LAKE. THE OTHER MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR ARE A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS BUT A FOCUS AROUND BEAR LAKE. ACTIVITY AROUND THERE STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL...BUT THE THREAT IS QUITE A BIT LOWER THAN RECENT DAYS. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE A FEW STRAY SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND HAILEY. IT LOOKS LIKE THE WIND WILL BE OUT A NORTHERLY DIRECTION...5-15 MPH WITH SOME POCKETS CLOSER TO 20 MPH. IT`S NOT A LOT BUT ENOUGH FOR IMPACTS ON AMERICAN FALLS RESERVOIR...WHICH IS WHERE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY MIDNIGHT...WE SHOULD BR DRY EVEN IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER. ANOTHER MILD DAY IS ON TAP FOR US...70S AND 80S EXCEPT FOR WHERE CLOUDS MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES BACK ABOUT 10 DEGREES. KEYES .LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. WE WILL SETTLE INTO A MORE WESTERLY/PACIFIC FLOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN NORTH OF US...BUT HOW FAR NORTH REMAINS AN ISSUE. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THROUGH THE WEEKEND THAT A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE DIVIDE...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER. IT THE STORM ACROSS CANADA ENDS UP FARTHER NORTH...WE MAY NOT SEE ANYTHING EVEN NEAR ISLAND PARK AND MONIDA PASS. THERE IS EVEN MORE DISAGREEMENT NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER STORM FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHERN CANADA. THE GFS SWINGS IT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT JUST OFFSHORE OF VANCOUVER ISLAND. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THOUGH WE SHOULD SEE AN UPTICK IN MOISTURE...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SHOWERS AND STORMS BUT NOTHING WE`VE SEEN RECENTLY. WE DID MAINTAIN THAT POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTH BUT STARTING TRIMMING THINGS BACK FARTHER SOUTH AFTER MONDAY. WE SHOULD SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES...REMAINING AT OR JUST ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID JUNE. KEYES && .AVIATION...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH UTAH TODAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST IDAHO. MOST TAF SITES WILL BE UNAFFECTED. ANY CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR. VALLE && .FIRE WEATHER...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH UTAH TODAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST IDAHO. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. VALLE && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR IDZ021. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
156 AM MDT THU JUN 11 2015 .SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR ALL OF THE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO WILL KEEP MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD COLORADO AND THE FOUR CORNERS. MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN HIGHLANDS. THE MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING SOMEWHAT ON STORM COVERAGE. THE NAM IS THE SKIMPIEST WITH DEVELOPMENT CONFINED TO AROUND BEAR LAKE. THE OTHER MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR ARE A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS BUT A FOCUS AROUND BEAR LAKE. ACTIVITY AROUND THERE STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL...BUT THE THREAT IS QUITE A BIT LOWER THAN RECENT DAYS. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE A FEW STRAY SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND HAILEY. IT LOOKS LIKE THE WIND WILL BE OUT A NORTHERLY DIRECTION...5-15 MPH WITH SOME POCKETS CLOSER TO 20 MPH. IT`S NOT A LOT BUT ENOUGH FOR IMPACTS ON AMERICAN FALLS RESERVOIR...WHICH IS WHERE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY MIDNIGHT...WE SHOULD BR DRY EVEN IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER. ANOTHER MILD DAY IS ON TAP FOR US...70S AND 80S EXCEPT FOR WHERE CLOUDS MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES BACK ABOUT 10 DEGREES. KEYES .LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. WE WILL SETTLE INTO A MORE WESTERLY/PACIFIC FLOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN NORTH OF US...BUT HOW FAR NORTH REMAINS AN ISSUE. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THROUGH THE WEEKEND THAT A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE DIVIDE...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER. IT THE STORM ACROSS CANADA ENDS UP FARTHER NORTH...WE MAY NOT SEE ANYTHING EVEN NEAR ISLAND PARK AND MONIDA PASS. THERE IS EVEN MORE DISAGREEMENT NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER STORM FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHERN CANADA. THE GFS SWINGS IT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT JUST OFFSHORE OF VANCOUVER ISLAND. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THOUGH WE SHOULD SEE AN UPTICK IN MOISTURE...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SHOWERS AND STORMS BUT NOTHING WE`VE SEEN RECENTLY. WE DID MAINTAIN THAT POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTH BUT STARTING TRIMMING THINGS BACK FARTHER SOUTH AFTER MONDAY. WE SHOULD SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES...REMAINING AT OR JUST ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID JUNE. KEYES && .AVIATION...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH UTAH TODAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST IDAHO. MOST TAF SITES WILL BE UNAFFECTED. ANY CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR. VALLE && .FIRE WEATHER...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH UTAH TODAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST IDAHO. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. VALLE && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR IDZ021. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
557 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 .MESOSCALE DISCUSSION... 556 PM CDT CONVECTION IS DEEPENING OVER EASTERN IOWA IN ADVANCE OF SUBTLE...LIKELY CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED/INDUCED...SHORTWAVE THAT IS TRACKING SLOWLY EASTWARD. STRONG QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS LAID OUT IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF I-80 WITH VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY RESULTING IN RAP ANALYZED MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG. KILX/KDVN 88D VWP DATA SHOWING 40-45KT FLOW AROUND 6KM AGL RESULT IN 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 35 KT IN THE WARM SECTOR...AND A BIT HIGHER ALONG THE FRONT WHERE WINDS ARE MORE BACKED. OVERALL WIND PROFILES LOOK GOOD FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VEERING/STRENGTHENING WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME THREAT FOR TORNADOES WITH SUPERCELLS THIS EVENING...PARTICULARLY ANY THAT CAN FESTER NEAR OR RIDE ALONG THE WARM FRONT. BASED ON RAP FORECAST WIND PROFILES THE BUNKERS RIGHT MOVING STORM MOTION IS EAST AROUND 10 KT...WHICH IS LARGELY PARALLEL TO THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR A SUPERCELL TO RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET THIS EVENING SHOULD RESULT IN A VERY SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR. ASSUMING STORM MODE REMAINS SUPERCELLULAR...THERE LOOKS TO BE A SHORT WINDOW FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT EARLY-MID EVENING WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASE BUT PRIOR TO BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMING STABLE ENOUGH FOR STORMS TO BECOME ROOTED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. IZZI && .SHORT TERM... 229 PM CDT THROUGH FRIDAY... CONCERNS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SOLAR SHIELDING ACROSS NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN...WITH LESS CLOUD COVER FURTHER SOUTH OF THE KANKAKEE RIVER. THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS SLOW TO LIFT NORTH...AND MAY BE AN INDICATION FOR LATER TONIGHT WITH ACTIVITY BEING DISPLACED SOUTH ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE HAS POOLED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE LOW 70S...WHILE FURTHER NORTH THE EASTERLY FLOW IS ALLOWING DEW POINTS TO HOLD IN THE LOW 60S. MID-LVL VORTICITY MAXIMA FOCUSED ACROSS NEBRASKA/IOWA/KANSAS WILL STEADILY SHIFT EAST WITH THE SFC LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SREF 850MB WINDS OF 30-40KT FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS PROGGED OVER THE CWFA TONIGHT...WITH MODERATE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ARRIVING SHORTLY AFT 3Z THRU DAYBREAK FRI. AS ELUDED TOO EARLIER...OPER GUIDANCE IS HINTING THAT THE BOUNDARY MAY BECOME ORIENTED ACROSS THE HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALLOWING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO FEED ALONG THIS AXIS. WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE PROGGED TONIGHT...THIS ALL POINTS TOWARDS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. MANY LOCATIONS HAVE BECOME PRE-CONDITIONED FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL...SO HAVE LEANED MORE LIBERAL WITH HOISTING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE OTHER CONCERN IS FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT. WITH FLOW BACKED TO THE EAST NORTH OF I-80...WITH SLOWLY DECREASING CIN FROM THE SLOWLY THINNING CLOUD COVER...THE INSTABILITY HAS BEEN STEADILY INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED EARLIER IN THE DAY...HOWEVER THE FOCUS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN WELL WEST ACROSS IOWA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES NOT SUGGEST ANY VERTICAL GROWTH YET TO THE CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN IL...HOWEVER JUST WEST INTO IOWA THERE IS A CONVECTIVE LOOK TO THE CLOUDS. SUSPECT THAT LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST...IT WILL HELP TO TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND COULD QUICKLY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. THE CONCERN IS MAINLY FOCUSED FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...HOWEVER GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF A SHARP FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BACKED FLOW ALONG WITH ANOMALOUS PWAT ADVECTING NORTH...A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS NEAR THE BOUNDARY COULD ROTATE AND PRODUCE AN ISOLATED TORNADO. FOR FRIDAY THE AXIS OF HIGH PWAT BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST...HOWEVER THE DAY WILL LIKELY START UNSTABLE AND COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS LATE IN THE MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE INDICATES WEAK ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW ARRIVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SHIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FRI AFTN. THIS MAY HELP TO BRING AN END TO PRECIP EARLIER ACROSS THE WEST/NORTHWEST CWFA FRI MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN. TEMPS FOR FRI WILL BE DIFFICULT GIVEN THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. HAVE OPTED TO ONLY MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GOING FORECAST WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 70S NORTH OF I-80...AND LOW/MID 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA. BEACHLER && .LONG TERM... 229 PM CDT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE SERN CONUS...WITH LONG WAVE RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE ERN CONUS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ACTIVE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM PATTERN WILL FORCE THE RIDGE SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS UPPER TROUGHING DEEPENS OVER THE NWRN CONUS AND SWRN CANADA WHILE A SERIES OF SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES LIFT NEWD OUT OF THE SWRN CONUS AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE NET EFFECT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN OVER THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS WILL BE FOR PERSISTENT SWLY FLOW ALOFT WITH A SERIES OF SRN STREAM SHORTWAVES BRINING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE THE WORDING OF THE FORECAST MAY SOUND A BIT MONOTONOUS...WITH CHANCES FOR PCPN EVERY DAY...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVES. EVEN THROUGH THE LONGER TERM MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL TREND AND PATTERN...THE MINOR TIMING...STRENGTH AND TRACK DIFFERENCES WILL AFFECT THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FORECAST. THE PERIOD OF HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN THE PCPN FORECAST WILL BE THE PERIOD FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING WHERE THE LONGER TERM MODELS EXHIBIT RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FINER SCALE DETAILS OF THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY. THE SCREAMING MESSAGE HERE IS THAT MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE A WASHOUT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE FRIDAY AND MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SPREADS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD THROUGH THE REGION. BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PUSH THE WARM FRONT THROUGH NRN IL/IN TO CNTRL WI/LAKE MICHIGAN/LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS PATTERN IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE SCENARIO EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SO ANOTHER PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD AGGRAVATE ANY LINGERING RIVER FLOODING OR AREAL OVER-LAND FLOODING. THE TEMPERATURE TREND SHOULD LARGELY FOR NEAR SEASONABLE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...SUNDAY SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S... ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR...WHICH WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM LONGER THAN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THERE WILL ALSO BE OPPORTUNITIES FOR LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT TO KEEP THE LAKEFRONT LOCATIONS COOLER THAN INLAND AREAS. THE MOST PROMINENT LAKE BREEZE SHOULD BE ON SATURDAY AS THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. NELY FLOW ON SATURDAY SHOULD KEEP THE LAKEFRONT IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S...WHILE LOCATIONS WELL INLAND WILL HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. LAKEFRONT COOLING IS ALSO POSSIBLE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OUT OF CANADA AND SPREADS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. KREIN && .HYDROLOGY... 229 PM CDT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR WESTERN ILLINOIS AND SHIFT EAST. FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A BOUNDARY WILL BECOME ORIENTED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR AND SERVE AS THE FOCAL POINT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. WITH DEEP MOISTURE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION...SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN IL AND NORTHWEST IN HAVE SATURATED SOILS FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE PAST FEW DAYS...THAT ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING AND POTENTIALLY FLASH FLOODING. HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT. THIS WILL FURTHER AGGRAVATE ALREADY ELEVATED STREAMS. BEACHLER && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z... * SCATTERED TSRA THIS EVENING. * SHRA WITH A CHANCE OF TSRA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. * NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15KT THIS EVENING. * NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS 10KT OR HIGHER FRIDAY. * MVFR...POSSIBLE IFR CIGS FRIDAY. CMS //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 22Z... LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT IS NOW NEARLY STATIONARY FROM NEAR VYS TO NORTH OF IKK. WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASING NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...NOT EXPECTING IT TO MOVE NORTH TO THE TERMINALS FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS...POSSIBLY NOT UNTIL OVERNIGHT. CHANGED WINDS TO NORTHEAST FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING AND EXPECT ADDITIONAL WIND CHANGES WILL BE NEEDED WITH THE 00Z TAFS. TWEAKED CONVECTION TIMING SLIGHTLY...BY DELAYING IT...WITH THE 22Z UPDATE. ISOLATED ACTIVITY CONTINUES FROM SOUTH OF JOT TO VPZ. SHRA AND SOME TSRA CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE NEAR THE QUAD CITIES AND THE HRRR BRINGS THAT ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...IN SOME KIND OF WEAKENING FORM. ACTIVITY FURTHER WEST... ACROSS SOUTHWEST IOWA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI WILL LIKELY CONTINUE NORTHEAST AND MOVE OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE REGARDING COVERAGE/TIMING IS LOW. CMS PREVIOUS 18Z DISCUSSION... AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT THE RFD AREA THIS HOUR...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING NEAR THE REMAINING TERMINALS AS WEAK OUTFLOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. IF ANY SHOWERS WERE TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS IN THE NEAR TERM...EXPECT THEM TO BE BRIEF WITH VIS BRIEFLY FALLING TO 3-5SM. DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE UPSTREAM SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH AND INCREASE WITH SLOWLY LIFTING WARM FRONT. LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING TIME FRAME STILL APPEARS TO BE THE BEST WINDOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF PRECIP TO THE WEST WILL LIKELY MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WITH PRECIP CONTINUING ACROSS THE TERMINALS. COVERAGE OF THIS PRECIP AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER IS LOW DURING THIS TIME...BUT WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE...THUNDER STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE AND WILL NEED TO BE ADDRESSED WITH LATER FORECASTS. ANY LINGERING PRECIP WILL DRIFT SOUTH ON FRIDAY...AS MVFR CEILINGS MOVE IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. RODRIGUEZ //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z... * MEDIUM FOR TSRA THIS EVENING...LOW FOR TIMING/COVERAGE. * MEDIUM FOR SHRA/CHANCE OF TSRA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. * HIGH FOR NORTHEAST WINDS THIS EVENING. LOW FOR WINDS OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. * HIGH FOR MVFR CIGS FRIDAY...MEDIUM FOR IFR. CMS //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z... * FRIDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF SHRA EARLY...OTHERWISE PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS. * SATURDAY...DRY. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. NORTHEAST WINDS. * SUNDAY...TSRA LIKELY. SOUTHERLY WINDS. * MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA. SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. KJB && .MARINE... 310 PM CDT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA WILL NORTHEAST TO FAR NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS THIS EVENING AND THEN TURN EAST AND TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OF LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...PRODUCING OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER WAVES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY SETTING UP A PERIOD OF GENERALLY NORTHEAST WINDS. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEAST TO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA SUNDAY WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH TO THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE. THE LOW SHOULD TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE LAKE SUNDAY NIGHT. AREAS OF FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE LAKE TONIGHT AS THE APPROACHING SYSTEM TRANSPORTS A VERY WARM...MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE COLD LAKE WATERS. KREIN && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010- ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022- ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY. IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY. LM...NONE. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
521 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 .MESOSCALE DISCUSSION... 229 PM CDT CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THIN ACROSS NORTHERN IL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEING DEPICTED FROM NEAR LASALLE EAST TO VALPARAISO IN. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY VERY WARM/HUMID AIR HAS RETURNED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S AND TEMPS IN THE MID/UPR 80S. CONSIDERABLE TEMP DIFFERENTIAL TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH EASTERLY FLOW KEEPING TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 60S. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS ALREADY BECOME UNSTABLE FURTHER SOUTH WITH SPC MESO PAGE INDICATING BETWEEN 2-3K J/KG TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. FURTHER NORTH THE ATMOS REMAINS SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE WITH SOME CIN STILL HOLDING ON. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS BEING INFLUENCED BY THE STRONG BACKED EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWFA WITH BETWEEN 40-50KTS. THE FOCUSCONTINUES TO BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS FOR BETTER DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWFA. SPC CONTINUES TO HAVE THE ENTIRE AREA OUTLOOKED FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT. BEACHLER && .SHORT TERM... 229 PM CDT THROUGH FRIDAY... CONCERNS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SOLAR SHIELDING ACROSS NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN...WITH LESS CLOUD COVER FURTHER SOUTH OF THE KANKAKEE RIVER. THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS SLOW TO LIFT NORTH...AND MAY BE AN INDICATION FOR LATER TONIGHT WITH ACTIVITY BEING DISPLACED SOUTH ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE HAS POOLED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE LOW 70S...WHILE FURTHER NORTH THE EASTERLY FLOW IS ALLOWING DEW POINTS TO HOLD IN THE LOW 60S. MID-LVL VORTICITY MAXIMA FOCUSED ACROSS NEBRASKA/IOWA/KANSAS WILL STEADILY SHIFT EAST WITH THE SFC LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SREF 850MB WINDS OF 30-40KT FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS PROGGED OVER THE CWFA TONIGHT...WITH MODERATE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ARRIVING SHORTLY AFT 3Z THRU DAYBREAK FRI. AS ELUDED TOO EARLIER...OPER GUIDANCE IS HINTING THAT THE BOUNDARY MAY BECOME ORIENTED ACROSS THE HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALLOWING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO FEED ALONG THIS AXIS. WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE PROGGED TONIGHT...THIS ALL POINTS TOWARDS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. MANY LOCATIONS HAVE BECOME PRE-CONDITIONED FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL...SO HAVE LEANED MORE LIBERAL WITH HOISTING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE OTHER CONCERN IS FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT. WITH FLOW BACKED TO THE EAST NORTH OF I-80...WITH SLOWLY DECREASING CIN FROM THE SLOWLY THINNING CLOUD COVER...THE INSTABILITY HAS BEEN STEADILY INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED EARLIER IN THE DAY...HOWEVER THE FOCUS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN WELL WEST ACROSS IOWA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES NOT SUGGEST ANY VERTICAL GROWTH YET TO THE CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN IL...HOWEVER JUST WEST INTO IOWA THERE IS A CONVECTIVE LOOK TO THE CLOUDS. SUSPECT THAT LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST...IT WILL HELP TO TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND COULD QUICKLY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. THE CONCERN IS MAINLY FOCUSED FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...HOWEVER GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF A SHARP FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BACKED FLOW ALONG WITH ANOMALOUS PWAT ADVECTING NORTH...A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS NEAR THE BOUNDARY COULD ROTATE AND PRODUCE AN ISOLATED TORNADO. FOR FRIDAY THE AXIS OF HIGH PWAT BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST...HOWEVER THE DAY WILL LIKELY START UNSTABLE AND COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS LATE IN THE MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE INDICATES WEAK ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW ARRIVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SHIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FRI AFTN. THIS MAY HELP TO BRING AN END TO PRECIP EARLIER ACROSS THE WEST/NORTHWEST CWFA FRI MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN. TEMPS FOR FRI WILL BE DIFFICULT GIVEN THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. HAVE OPTED TO ONLY MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GOING FORECAST WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 70S NORTH OF I-80...AND LOW/MID 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA. BEACHLER && .LONG TERM... 229 PM CDT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE SERN CONUS...WITH LONG WAVE RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE ERN CONUS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ACTIVE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM PATTERN WILL FORCE THE RIDGE SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS UPPER TROUGHING DEEPENS OVER THE NWRN CONUS AND SWRN CANADA WHILE A SERIES OF SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES LIFT NEWD OUT OF THE SWRN CONUS AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE NET EFFECT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN OVER THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS WILL BE FOR PERSISTENT SWLY FLOW ALOFT WITH A SERIES OF SRN STREAM SHORTWAVES BRINING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE THE WORDING OF THE FORECAST MAY SOUND A BIT MONOTONOUS...WITH CHANCES FOR PCPN EVERY DAY...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVES. EVEN THROUGH THE LONGER TERM MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL TREND AND PATTERN...THE MINOR TIMING...STRENGTH AND TRACK DIFFERENCES WILL AFFECT THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FORECAST. THE PERIOD OF HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN THE PCPN FORECAST WILL BE THE PERIOD FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING WHERE THE LONGER TERM MODELS EXHIBIT RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FINER SCALE DETAILS OF THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY. THE SCREAMING MESSAGE HERE IS THAT MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE A WASHOUT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE FRIDAY AND MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SPREADS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD THROUGH THE REGION. BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PUSH THE WARM FRONT THROUGH NRN IL/IN TO CNTRL WI/LAKE MICHIGAN/LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS PATTERN IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE SCENARIO EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SO ANOTHER PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD AGGRAVATE ANY LINGERING RIVER FLOODING OR AREAL OVER-LAND FLOODING. THE TEMPERATURE TREND SHOULD LARGELY FOR NEAR SEASONABLE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...SUNDAY SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S... ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR...WHICH WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM LONGER THAN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THERE WILL ALSO BE OPPORTUNITIES FOR LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT TO KEEP THE LAKEFRONT LOCATIONS COOLER THAN INLAND AREAS. THE MOST PROMINENT LAKE BREEZE SHOULD BE ON SATURDAY AS THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. NELY FLOW ON SATURDAY SHOULD KEEP THE LAKEFRONT IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S...WHILE LOCATIONS WELL INLAND WILL HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. LAKEFRONT COOLING IS ALSO POSSIBLE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OUT OF CANADA AND SPREADS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. KREIN && .HYDROLOGY... 229 PM CDT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR WESTERN ILLINOIS AND SHIFT EAST. FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A BOUNDARY WILL BECOME ORIENTED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR AND SERVE AS THE FOCAL POINT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. WITH DEEP MOISTURE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION...SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN IL AND NORTHWEST IN HAVE SATURATED SOILS FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE PAST FEW DAYS...THAT ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING AND POTENTIALLY FLASH FLOODING. HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT. THIS WILL FURTHER AGGRAVATE ALREADY ELEVATED STREAMS. BEACHLER && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z... * SCATTERED TSRA THIS EVENING. * SHRA WITH A CHANCE OF TSRA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. * NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15KT THIS EVENING. * NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS 10KT OR HIGHER FRIDAY. * MVFR...POSSIBLE IFR CIGS FRIDAY. CMS //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 22Z... LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT IS NOW NEARLY STATIONARY FROM NEAR VYS TO NORTH OF IKK. WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASING NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...NOT EXPECTING IT TO MOVE NORTH TO THE TERMINALS FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS...POSSIBLY NOT UNTIL OVERNIGHT. CHANGED WINDS TO NORTHEAST FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING AND EXPECT ADDITIONAL WIND CHANGES WILL BE NEEDED WITH THE 00Z TAFS. TWEAKED CONVECTION TIMING SLIGHTLY...BY DELAYING IT...WITH THE 22Z UPDATE. ISOLATED ACTIVITY CONTINUES FROM SOUTH OF JOT TO VPZ. SHRA AND SOME TSRA CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE NEAR THE QUAD CITIES AND THE HRRR BRINGS THAT ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...IN SOME KIND OF WEAKENING FORM. ACTIVITY FURTHER WEST... ACROSS SOUTHWEST IOWA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI WILL LIKELY CONTINUE NORTHEAST AND MOVE OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE REGARDING COVERAGE/TIMING IS LOW. CMS PREVIOUS 18Z DISCUSSION... AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT THE RFD AREA THIS HOUR...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING NEAR THE REMAINING TERMINALS AS WEAK OUTFLOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. IF ANY SHOWERS WERE TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS IN THE NEAR TERM...EXPECT THEM TO BE BRIEF WITH VIS BRIEFLY FALLING TO 3-5SM. DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE UPSTREAM SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH AND INCREASE WITH SLOWLY LIFTING WARM FRONT. LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING TIME FRAME STILL APPEARS TO BE THE BEST WINDOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF PRECIP TO THE WEST WILL LIKELY MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WITH PRECIP CONTINUING ACROSS THE TERMINALS. COVERAGE OF THIS PRECIP AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER IS LOW DURING THIS TIME...BUT WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE...THUNDER STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE AND WILL NEED TO BE ADDRESSED WITH LATER FORECASTS. ANY LINGERING PRECIP WILL DRIFT SOUTH ON FRIDAY...AS MVFR CEILINGS MOVE IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. RODRIGUEZ //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z... * MEDIUM FOR TSRA THIS EVENING...LOW FOR TIMING/COVERAGE. * MEDIUM FOR SHRA/CHANCE OF TSRA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. * HIGH FOR NORTHEAST WINDS THIS EVENING. LOW FOR WINDS OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. * HIGH FOR MVFR CIGS FRIDAY...MEDIUM FOR IFR. CMS //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z... * FRIDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF SHRA EARLY...OTHERWISE PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS. * SATURDAY...DRY. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. NORTHEAST WINDS. * SUNDAY...TSRA LIKELY. SOUTHERLY WINDS. * MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA. SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. KJB && .MARINE... 310 PM CDT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA WILL NORTHEAST TO FAR NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS THIS EVENING AND THEN TURN EAST AND TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OF LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...PRODUCING OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER WAVES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY SETTING UP A PERIOD OF GENERALLY NORTHEAST WINDS. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEAST TO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA SUNDAY WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH TO THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE. THE LOW SHOULD TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE LAKE SUNDAY NIGHT. AREAS OF FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE LAKE TONIGHT AS THE APPROACHING SYSTEM TRANSPORTS A VERY WARM...MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE COLD LAKE WATERS. KREIN && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010- ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022- ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY. IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY. LM...NONE. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1206 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 915 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015 HAVE ALREADY UPDATED ONCE. STORMS ONGOING IN NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THE REST OF THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY INTO OVERNIGHT. WILL TRY TO UPDATE SHORTLY TO FRESHEN GRIDS AND WORDING FOR REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. && .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015 COLD FRONT SLOWLY EDGING TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN A MUGGY AIRMASS. LAPS DATA SHOWING 4000-5000 J/KG AVAILABLE ENERGY BUT SO FAR, CONVECTION HAS NOT YET STARTED. HOWEVER, CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT SAGS INTO ILX NORTHERN TIER. ADVANCEMENT OF THE FRONT IN THE OVERNIGHT IS LIMITED WITH STRONG WAA AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN IN THE NORTHERN TIER AT LEAST IN THE IMMEDIATE TERM. CAPE WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT ONCE THE SUN SETS AND THE DIURNAL INFLUENCE IS LOST. THAT BEING SAID, STILL ENOUGH OF A HUMID AND HOT AIRMASS TO PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY HAVANA TO DANVILLE. EVEN WITH PWS IN EXCESS OF 1.5-2"...THE HRRR AND RAP/RUC IS SOMEWHAT LIMITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THAT BEING SAID, THE NORTHERN TIER OF ILX IS STILL IN A SLIGHT RISK THROUGH THE EVENING...AND WITH AMPLE CAPE, EVEN WITHOUT A LOT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR, STORMS CAN EASILY DEVELOP SOME GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015 THE 12Z MODELS SHOW THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING NORTHWARD IN THE MORNING, IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE WILL CREATE A HOT AND HUMID DAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SE IL. STORM CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT NORTHWARD, SO AREAS NORTH OF A LINE FROM RUSHVILLE TO LINCOLN TO BLOOMINGTON WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCES. SPC INCREASED OUR SEVERE POTENTIAL FROM MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK IN THAT GENERAL AREA, WITH ELEVATED CAPES OF 2-2500 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR OF 20-25KTS PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. SO DOWNBURST WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FOR THURS AFTN/EVE. THURSDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW IN EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS IOWA. A BREAK IN THE STORMS APPEARS LIKELY, UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW REACHES CLOSE TO NW IL. STORM CHANCES WILL EXPAND TO THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY...AS THE LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND IT DRAGS A COLD FRONT INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE FRONT WILL TRIGGER STORMS, SOME POSSIBLE SEVERE WITH HAIL AND WIND. SPC HAS US IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. WE FOLLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA WITH LIKELY POPS, FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ALL SHOW THE COLD FRONT STALLING OUT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON SATURDAY...KEEPING THE FOCUS FOR STORMS SOUTH OF PEORIA TO BLOOMINGTON. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD HELP LOWER HIGH TEMPS NORTH OF THE FRONT INTO THE LOWER 80S, BUT HUMIDITY WILL NOT IMPROVE MUCH AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN MID TO UPPER 60S. THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, WITH STORM CHANCES INCREASING TO LIKELY ON SUNDAY WEST OF A LINE FROM EFFINGHAM TO DANVILLE...AS A COUPLE OF STRONG SHORTWAVES TRIGGER PERIODIC STORMS. LIKELY CHANCES OF RAIN LINGER NORTH OF PEORIA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. MORE LIKELY POPS APPEAR EVIDENT IN THE EXTENDED MODELS FOR TUESDAY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES FROM KANSAS INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. ONE MAIN THEME THROUGHOUT THE 7 DAY FORECAST IS HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE AIRMASS, AND INSTABILITY EVERYDAY. SHEAR PARAMETERS GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 25KTS, WHICH LENDS TOWARD SLOW MOVING STORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. FLASH FLOODING COULD BECOME A REAL CONCERN IN AREAS THAT SEE REPEATED STORM TRACKS OVER THE NEXT WEEK. RAINFALL RATES OVER SHORT PERIODS OF TIME COULD EASILY CLIMB AS HIGH AS 3 INCHES PER HOUR...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REPEATEDLY CLIMB TOWARD 2 INCHES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015 THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER WEST CENTRAL IL WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER WILL AFFECT KPIA-KBMI-KSPI OVER FIRST FEW HOURS OF TAF PERIOD WITH IFR-MVFR VSBYS AND MVFR CIGS LIKELY. OUTFLOW WINDS FROM THIS COMPLEX WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO N/NW AS WELL FOR FIRST FEW HOURS AS WELL...THEN WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION BACK TO A SSW DIRECTION BY MORNING AND CONTINUE...8-15 KTS...THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY. PERIODS OF MORNING FOG LIKELY TO DEVELOP AT KPIA-KBMI AS WELL FROM 09-12Z AND HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN THIS PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR A PERIOD FROM 12Z-24Z BEFORE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE FROM THE WEST. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS FOR TOMORROW EVENING AS TIMING AND ESTIMATES ON CIG/VSBY CONDITIONS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...AUTEN SHORT TERM...HJS LONG TERM...SHIMON AVIATION...ONTON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1248 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 ...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION... .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015 COLD FRONT WAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND CONTINUED TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. AT 3 PM IN OUR NORTHERN CWA TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S IN OUR FAR NW CWA. SOUTH OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES WERE IN THE MID 90S TO 100 IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA. THE HI-RES HRRR MODEL FIRES UP THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. SBCAPES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE THAN 5000 J/KG BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS VERY WEAK. BUFKIT SHOWS THE CIN DIMINISHING BY MID AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE TO OVER 1.8 INCHES. THESE PARAMETERS SUGGEST THE STRONGER STORMS WOULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND TORRENTIAL RAINS. WITH FREEZING LEVELS AT 13K THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL IS LOW. THE NAM FIRES UP THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING SO IS LATER THAN THE HRRR BUT FOR NOW THE FORECAST HINGES ON THE MESO MODEL. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015 FORECAST FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. TONIGHT...FRONT WILL STALL IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA THIS EVENING AS IT RUNS INTO RIDGING ALOFT THAT EXTENDS FROM TX TO MO. AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT THIS FRONT WILL BEGIN LIFTING SLOWLY BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD WITH THE FRONT AND ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ALSO INCREASES OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NORTH TO AROUND 70 SOUTH. THURSDAY...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT INCREASES AS A SURFACE CYCLONE TRACKS INTO WESTERN IA BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO OUR NORTHERN CWA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR BECOMES STRONG (50 KT) DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SBCAPES INCREASE TO 2500-3000 J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTH CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT...AND THEN SPREADING INTO OUR WESTERN CWA AS THE STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR LIKELY BUT THE MAIN TORNADO THREAT AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE TO OUR WEST CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW AND TRIPLE POINT. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS OVER OUR ENTIRE CWA. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S ALONG HIGHWAY 20 TO NEAR 90 IN OUR FAR SOUTH. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S IN OUR FAR SOUTH. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015 MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE ACTIVE PATTERN AND ROUND OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE PATTERN HAS SHIFTED NORTH INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THE LONG TERM AT LEAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EVERY DAY FOR THE EXCEPTION OF FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WITH FORECAST QPF AMOUNTS WE MAY START TO SEE SOME HYDRO IMPACTS ON OUR WATERWAYS. THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SFC CYCLONE PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN CWA. WARM FRONT SHOULD BE JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. 1000-700 AND H85 MOIST TRANS VECS PEG AREAS ACROSS SOUTHERN MN INTO CENTRAL WI. THIS AREA WILL BE THE AREA FOR THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER WITH THE CAPE ACROSS OUR AREA ALONG WITH HIGH PWATS OF CLOSE TO 2 INCHES... SUGGESTS THAT HEAVY RAIN COULD FALL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT. AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT COULD EXIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY AM. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTERS IDEAS ON THE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE AREA QUICKLY FRIDAY DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DRY FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL THEN THE FLOW TURNS ZONAL AND EVEN SW. A SERIES OF WAVES WILL LEAD TO THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. AS WE GET CLOSER TO EACH OF EVENTS...THE MESOSCALE FEATURES WILL BECOME BETTER FORECAST AND DETAILS WILL BE POSSIBLE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST INTO EARLY THU MORNING. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL INCREASE AT KDBQ AND KCID THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTN/EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL WAA CONTINUES TO INCREASE. PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR ARE LIKELY AT KDBQ AND KCID...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE AFTN/EVENING WHERE A SFC BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED. VERY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY ERRATIC WIND GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM ANY STORMS THAT FORM. STORM COVERAGE BECOMES PROGRESSIVELY MORE SCT/ISOLATED TO THE SOUTH OF A KCID-TO-KDBQ LINE THROUGH THE THE AFTN. THEREFORE...AT KMLI...THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS IS AFTER 02Z-03Z/FRI. UTTECH && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015 WITH WPC FORECAST OF CLOSE TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN TO OUR NORTH...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH WE MAY SEE SOME FLOODING ISSUES ON OUR RIVERS AS THE THE WATER IS ROUTED INTO OUR AREA. CONTINGENCY FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT SOME OF THE SITES COULD REACH FLOOD STAGE IF THE CURRENT FORECAST HOLDS TRUE. AS A RESULT...CUSTOMERS WITH INTERESTS AROUND THE RIVERS SHOULD PAY ATTENTION FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO WEEK. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HAASE SHORT TERM...HAASE LONG TERM...GIBBS AVIATION...UTTECH HYDROLOGY...GIBBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
639 PM MDT FRI JUN 12 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT FRI JUN 12 2015 LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE DATA SHOW A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA...WITH A CLOUDY SKY. RADAR INDICATED A BAND OF LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE RAINFALL CONTINUING NORTHWARD OVER THE NORTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES WITH A SMALL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON ANTICIPATE THE BAND OF RAINFALL TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTH. NOTICED THE BAND HAS BEGUN TO MOVE FASTER OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO. AS SUCH...MAY BE HANGING ONTO IT A BIT TOO LONG IN THE FORECAST...BUT HAVE THE BAND TRANSLATING NORTHWARD ACCORDING TO THE RAP 500MB WINDS WHICH SHOULD BE REPRESENTATIVE. THE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS ARE TRYING TO BREAK SOME AHEAD OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. IF CLOUDS REMAIN MOSTLY UNBROKEN THIS WILL AFFECT THE LONGEVITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS GOING INTO THE EVENING. FOR EVENING THE BAND OF RAINFALL SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE AREA BEFORE MID EVENING. MEANWHILE THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN SOME AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES AND THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE STABLE. SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS AS THE AXIS MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. DESPITE THE LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AND DECENT LIFT THE MODELS WERE NOT TOO CONVINCED RAIN WOULD DEVELOP. WITH THIS IN MIND WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS BUT KEEP THEM BELOW 40 PERCENT. AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TAKING MOST OF ANY LINGERING RAINFALL WITH IT. THE AREA SHOULD BE RAIN FREE BEFORE SUNRISE. BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS THE SKY WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR. THIS MAY ALLOW SOME FOG TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER VISIBILITY FIELDS WERE NOT SUGGESTING FOG WOULD DEVELOP SO WILL LEAVE FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST AND A SOUNDING AT YUMA INDICATED FAIRLY DRY LOW LEVELS. SATURDAY WILL BE DRY FOR MOST OF THE DAY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE WARM AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AS THE COOLER AIR ACCOMPANIES THE TROUGH EASTWARD. DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST BRINGING WITH IT ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED STORMS TO THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA. THERE LOOKS TO BE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SURFACE TROUGH SEPARATING THE WARMER AIR OVER THE TR-STATE AREA BEHIND THE TROUGH FROM THE COOLER AIR EAST OF THE AREA UNDER THE TROUGH. THIS MAY HELP PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORM INITIATION DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 136 PM MDT FRI JUN 12 2015 FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...LATEST MODELS RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AT 500/700MB...AND STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST/ SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION...BEING STUCK IN BETWEEN THESE TWO RIDGES WILL HAVE AN INVERTED TROUGH SET UP OVER THE AREA. FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND ON THRU NEXT WEEK...THIS IS GOING TO GIVE THE ENTIRE TRI STATE REGION THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...FURTHER ENHANCED BY SEVERAL SHORTWAVES THAT MOVE THRU THE ZONAL FLOW TO OUR NORTH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION NEXT WEEK...WILL ALSO HELP TO ENHANCE ANY PRECIP CHANCES AS A SURFACE FRONT THAT DEVELOPS IN TANDEM WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH/SHORTWAVE COMBO. THE FRONT WILL END UP BECOMING STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD COULD VARY GREATLY DEPENDING ON THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS FROM EXPECTED PRECIP...BUT OVERALL UPWARD TREND IS EXPECTED AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SW WILL PROVIDE WNW DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY MIDWEEK ONWARD GIVING THE AREA 850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM +20C TO +26C. LOOKING FOR DAYTIME HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND MID 80S TO MID 90S WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...WARMEST AT END OF THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S THRU THE MID 60S. EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION WILL BE CLOSEST TO MORE UNSTABLE AIR FROM THE SE...SO CHANCES FOR ANY POTENTIAL SEVERE WILL BE FOCUSED MORE SO THERE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 629 PM MDT FRI JUN 12 2015 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT GLD AND MCK THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH INTERMITTENT IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND A DECREASE IN VISIBILITY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BETWEEN 11-13Z. AFTER 14Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JTL LONG TERM...JN AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1228 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 .MESOSCALE DISCUSSION... ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 AT 17Z...SURFACE FRONT STRETCHED FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS...OR JUST EAST OF A KRSL-KDDC LINE. THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP BOTH DEVELOP CONVECTION IN THE 20-22Z TIME FRAME ALONG THE FRONT ROUGHLY ALONG/JUST EAST OF A KSLN-KPTT LINE...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN LATEST ANALYSIS. SBCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG AND AROUND 35 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS UNTIL DARK ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. OTHERWISE THE MAIN CONCERN LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL BE A TRANSITION TO HEAVY RAINFALL...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGES INTO AND OVER THE SOUTHWARD SAGGING SURFACE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND STEERING FLOW BECOMES MORE PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. THIS SHOULD TEND TO GENERATE A BACK-BUILDING/TRAINING SCENARIO FOR SEVERAL HOURS JUST NORTH OF THE SOUTHWARD SAGGING FRONT. THIS LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY LIKELY BETWEEN THE HIGHWAY 54 AND HIGHWAY 56 CORRIDOR. THIS MAY NECESSITATE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT WHICH MAY BE ISSUED WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. KED && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 A BROAD UPPER POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH THE MAIN DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST. A PIECE OF THE DISTURBANCE HAS MOVED OVER NEBRASKA SPARKING THUNDERSTORMS. A MCS DEVELOPED OVER NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS DURING THE EVENING AND TRACKED EASTWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS. A SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN KANSAS WITH THE SURFACE FRONT DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN KANSAS. BILLINGS WRIGHT && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 THIS PERIOD IS STILL THE PERIOD OF CONCERN WITH HEAVY RAIN BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. TODAY-TONIGHT: CONVECTION THAT IS PRESENT THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY MID MORNING AT THE LATEST WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...HOT AND WINDY DAY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE NAM SPARKS THUNDERSTORMS CLOSER TO 00Z...BUT SOME COULD FIRE ANYTIME AFTER 21Z. STORMS NEAR THE FRONT COULD BE SEVERE WITH MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. HOWEVER...THE THREAT WILL SWITCH FROM SEVERE TO HEAVY RAIN QUICKLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS BECOMES A CONCERN. FLOODING COULD BE A CONCERN IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT WITH ANY OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT: THINK THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE TRICKY WITH THE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT THURSDAY. HOWEVER... PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY ALONG OR NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NEAR BY IS LIKELY. AGAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS OR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THUNDERSTORMS/RAIN SHOWERS WILL PROVIDE AN ABUNDANCE OF RAIN OVER KANSAS. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES AS TO THE PRIMARY LOCATION...BUT SOUTHERN KANSAS CONTINUES TO BE AN AREA OF CONCERN. SATURDAY - SATURDAY NIGHT: SIMILAR TO FRIDAY A SURFACE LOW WITH A BOUNDARY WILL LINGER IN THE AREA WITH A POTENT UPPER LOW FOR SUPPORT. THIS PROVIDES SUPPORT FOR DAYTIME AND OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN ACCUMULATION: OVERALL THE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS FROM TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST CONCERN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SEE THE HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. BILLINGS WRIGHT .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 THIS PERIOD REMAINS A CONCERN WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH A WEAK UPPER LOW MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AT LEAST CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER WAVE FINALLY KICKS IT EASTWARD DRYING IT OUT. TEMPERATURES MAY MODERATE SLIGHTLY INTO THE 80S...BUT THIS MAY CHANGE IF IT INDEED IS AS RAINY AS ADVERTISED. THIS PERIOD HAS UNCERTAINTIES...SO BE SURE TO MONITOR FOR CHANGES AS IT NEARS. BILLINGS WRIGHT && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 ELEVATED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SO WILL GO WITH VCTS FOR ALL TAFS EXCEPT KCNU. DO NOT EXPECT ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS EVEN WITH THE TSRA CHANCE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS DUE TO THE HIGH BASES OF THE STORMS. THINK MOST OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL WANE BEFORE THEY GET TO KCNU...SO LEFT VCTS OUT OF THE THIS TAF FOR NOW. EXPECT A BREAK FROM THE CONVECTION FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT RENEWED SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AFTER 21Z IN CENTRAL KS...AND AFTER 00Z FOR KHUT/KICT. EXPECT THE SHOWERS/STORMS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT SO WILL KEEP VCTS GOING IN MOST LOCATIONS WELL INTO EARLY FRI MORNING. KETCHAM && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 AN ACTIVE AND WET FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE THE CONCERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO THE WORK WEEK. PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG A FRONT OVER CENTRAL KANSAS WHICH WILL BECOME A HEAVY RAIN CONCERN WITH TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS. WITH CONTINUED CHANCES ALONG THE FRONT ON FRIDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON SATURDAY...A 3 DAY RAINFALL ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE ISSUED BY LATER SHIFTS DUE TO THESE TOTALS AND POSSIBLE CONTINUED RAINFALL INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK. BILLINGS WRIGHT && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 98 67 77 67 / 30 70 70 90 HUTCHINSON 97 64 75 65 / 50 70 60 80 NEWTON 97 64 74 65 / 40 70 60 90 ELDORADO 95 67 77 67 / 30 60 60 80 WINFIELD-KWLD 96 70 81 68 / 40 50 70 90 RUSSELL 88 60 71 63 / 30 40 50 80 GREAT BEND 92 60 71 63 / 30 50 60 70 SALINA 94 62 74 65 / 40 50 50 80 MCPHERSON 96 62 73 65 / 50 70 50 90 COFFEYVILLE 94 73 85 70 / 20 50 50 80 CHANUTE 94 71 81 69 / 40 50 50 80 IOLA 93 71 79 68 / 40 50 50 80 PARSONS-KPPF 94 73 83 70 / 30 50 50 70 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1202 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 .AVIATION... MOIST LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS IN EASTERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A BROADER REGION OF LOW STRATUS THROUGH THE MORNING PERIOD. DRIER AIR INCHING SOUTHWARD MAY RESULT SOME PERIODIC CLEARING AT MBS...PROVIDING A WINDOW FOR FOG FORMATION AT THIS TERMINAL. ELSEWHERE...EXPECTATIONS REMAIN FOR CONDITIONS TO FALL INTO LOW MVFR/IFR. POCKETS OF SHOWERS IN MVFR LIFTING THROUGH YIP/DTW WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD. EXISTING MOISTURE WILL TAKE A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY TO MIX OUT...LIKELY RESULTING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MVFR STRATUS THROUGHOUT SATURDAY. FOR DTW...ONGOING SHOWERS WILL MAINTAIN A MORE CHAOTIC CEILING 06Z- 09Z WITH SOME INTERMITTENT MVFR EXPECTED. THEREAFTER...GREATER POTENTIAL FOR IFR STRATUS CURRENTLY LINGERING JUST UPSTREAM TO FILL ACROSS THE TERMINAL. IFR/LOW MVFR CEILING WILL SLOWLY LIFT ON SATURDAY. VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR A THUNDERSTORM LATE SATURDAY. //DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * HIGH IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...MEDIUM INTO THE AFTERNOON. * LOW IN THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE AIRSPACE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 343 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015 SHORT TERM... THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES THE SFC FRONT ACROSS THE NRN DETROIT SUBURBS. THE MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS HOWEVER DEVELOPED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE DTX FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THUS ANY RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL HAVE ENDED. THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH...REACHING THE OHIO BORDER THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO LOWER MI FROM THE NORTH. A REGION OF GOOD MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS NOW EXPANDING ACROSS NRN MI IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY MORNING SHORT WAVE /NOW ROLLING EAST OF GEORGAIN BAY/. MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL BE SUSTAINED ACROSS NRN/CNTRL MI INTO THE NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE MID LEVEL RIDGE TRAVERSES THIS REGION. THIS WILL FORCE THE MID TROPOSPHERIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED MOIST AXIS INTO THE SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE EVENING. SOME RESIDUAL FRONTAL FORCING WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A PERSISTENT UPPER JET MAX OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES WILL SUPPORT SOME ISOLD/SCT LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE EAST OF LOWER MI OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING THE MID LEVEL THETA E PLUME TO NUDGE BACK NORTHWARD TOWARD DAYBREAK SAT...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTH LATE. THERE HAS BEEN A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF POST FRONTAL STRATUS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE SHALLOW POST FRONTAL AIRMASS EXPANDS TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING...THIS LOW STRATUS DECK /WITH SOME POCKETS OF DRIZZLE/ WILL PUSH SOUTH AS WELL. BOTH THE NAM AND RAP SUGGEST THESE CLOUDS MIXING OUT ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB LATER THIS EVENING...WHICH WOULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THESE LOCALS OVERNIGHT. OBSERVATIONS ACROSS NRN LOWER MI SUGGESTS A SLOWER PUSH OF DRY AIR THAN SHOWN BY MODEL SOLUTIONS. THIS AND GIVEN THE EXPECTED DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION...LOW CLOUDS SEEM MORE LIKELY TO HOLD THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT. THIS WILL SUPPORT LEANING TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE /MID 50S NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTH/. LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY WEEKEND FORECAST STILL CARRIES A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AS WE CONTINUE TO DEAL WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATING OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SATURDAY DOES LOOK QUIETER IN A RELATIVE SENSE HOWEVER...AS THE SURFACE FRONT STARTS THE DAY JUST SOUTH OF THE MICHIGAN/OHIO BORDER AND RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SLIDE INTO THE AREA...STRENGTHENING A CAP OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. UNCERTAINTY LIES WITH A SHIFT IN THE MODELS WITH THE 12Z CYCLE...LIFTING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK NORTHWARD FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS LOOKS TO BE DUE TO MODELS GIVING THE UPPER WAVE NOW OVER NEBRASKA/OKLAHOMA MORE CREDIT...AND THE SHORTWAVE DOES LOOK FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL TREND THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION...BUT GIVE PREFERENCE TO THE SLOWER MODEL SOLUTIONS DUE IN PART TO THE COLDER LAKE WATERS AND ALSO DUE TO RECENT TRENDS IN THE MODELS TO PULL THIS FRONT TOO FAR NORTH TOO QUICKLY THE PAST FEW DAYS. AS THE WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES...IT WILL PULL THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF THE MICHIGAN BORDER BACK THROUGH THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT. THIS MAY TRIGGER SHOWERS/TSTORMS AS THIS OCCURS...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED BY THE STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE SATURDAY. ONLY HAVE GOOD CONFIDENCE WITH THE ELEVATED PORTIONS OF THE FRONT MAKING IT UP HERE BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. SURFACE FRONT MAY CLIP LENAWEE COUNTY HOWEVER...ALLOWING SOME SURFACE BASED CONVECTION...BUT INSTABILITY STILL DOESN`T LOOK TO BUILD TOO HIGH...ESPECIALLY WITH EARLY DAY CLOUDS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD LIFT INTO AT LEAST CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AS LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WAVE INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE DAY...PLACING SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN IN THE WARM SECTOR. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE ALREADY WELL-ESTABLISHED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE FRONT...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 80S. SHOWER/TSTORM CHANCES LOOK PRETTY GOOD SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...AND DID CONTINUE WITH HIGHER CHANCES...THOUGH KEPT THEM LIMITED BELOW LIKELY DUE TO RECENT MODEL SHIFTS. WILL NEED A TRIGGER TO FIRE OFF CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...POTENTIALLY LOOKING TO MCV`S/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES FROM UPSTREAM/EARLIER CONVECTION...LAKE BREEZES...AND THEN THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT TOWARDS EVENING. WARM TEMPS/HIGH DEWPOINTS LOOK TO YIELD SB CAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS. WIND PROFILE IS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE...WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW UNDER 30 KNOTS THROUGH ABOUT 600MB. STILL...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY HELP PROMOTE A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN CLOSER TO 2.0 INCHES...AND STORM MOTION SLOWS. EXTENDED FORECAST...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...REMAINS MORE ON THE ACTIVE SIDE AS THE REGION REMAINS FASTENED IN ZONAL FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR VARIOUS SHORTWAVES TO TRANSVERSE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK. CONSISTENT TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE IN PLAY AS HIGHS RANGE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S. MARINE... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAGINAW BAY THIS EVENING AS WINDS REMAIN NORTHEAST AT AROUND 20 KNOTS. SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS AND LOWER WAVE HEIGHTS ON SATURDAY BEFORE AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALLOWS FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH SATURDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH JUST A FEW STORMS EXPECTED OVER LAKE ST CLAIR AND WESTERN LAKE ERIE. A WARM FRONT LIFTING BACK THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL THEN BRING AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE...WITH THE THREAT FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS ON SUNDAY. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LAKE HURON...NONE. LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE. MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE. && $$ AVIATION.....MR SHORT TERM...SC LONG TERM....HLO/SS MARINE.......HLO YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
728 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015 .AVIATION... AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT IN THE WAKE OF AN EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL FAVOR LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AND MAINTENANCE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CEILINGS HOLDING/FALLING INTO IFR ALL TERMINALS INTO THE MORNING PERIOD. THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR DRIER AIR FUNNELING SOUTHWARD TO EVENTUALLY PROVIDE A PERIOD OF CLEARING TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY NORTH. THIS TRANSITION WOULD PROVIDE A WINDOW FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT INSTEAD...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THIS SCENARIO. FOR DTW...STEADY EXPANSION OF STRATUS THIS EVENING WILL PROVIDE AN INITIAL REDUCTION OF CEILING INTO LOWER MVFR. A PERIOD OF IFR OVERNIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. TERMINAL WILL REMAIN SUSCEPTIBLE TO POCKETS OF LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THIS TIME...BUT NO THUNDERSTORM RISK WITH INSTABILITY LACKING. //DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * HIGH IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 343 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015 SHORT TERM... THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES THE SFC FRONT ACROSS THE NRN DETROIT SUBURBS. THE MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS HOWEVER DEVELOPED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE DTX FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THUS ANY RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL HAVE ENDED. THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH...REACHING THE OHIO BORDER THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO LOWER MI FROM THE NORTH. A REGION OF GOOD MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS NOW EXPANDING ACROSS NRN MI IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY MORNING SHORT WAVE /NOW ROLLING EAST OF GEORGAIN BAY/. MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL BE SUSTAINED ACROSS NRN/CNTRL MI INTO THE NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE MID LEVEL RIDGE TRAVERSES THIS REGION. THIS WILL FORCE THE MID TROPOSPHERIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED MOIST AXIS INTO THE SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE EVENING. SOME RESIDUAL FRONTAL FORCING WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A PERSISTENT UPPER JET MAX OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES WILL SUPPORT SOME ISOLD/SCT LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE EAST OF LOWER MI OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING THE MID LEVEL THETA E PLUME TO NUDGE BACK NORTHWARD TOWARD DAYBREAK SAT...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTH LATE. THERE HAS BEEN A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF POST FRONTAL STRATUS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE SHALLOW POST FRONTAL AIRMASS EXPANDS TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING...THIS LOW STRATUS DECK /WITH SOME POCKETS OF DRIZZLE/ WILL PUSH SOUTH AS WELL. BOTH THE NAM AND RAP SUGGEST THESE CLOUDS MIXING OUT ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB LATER THIS EVENING...WHICH WOULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THESE LOCALS OVERNIGHT. OBSERVATIONS ACROSS NRN LOWER MI SUGGESTS A SLOWER PUSH OF DRY AIR THAN SHOWN BY MODEL SOLUTIONS. THIS AND GIVEN THE EXPECTED DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION...LOW CLOUDS SEEM MORE LIKELY TO HOLD THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT. THIS WILL SUPPORT LEANING TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE /MID 50S NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTH/. LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY WEEKEND FORECAST STILL CARRIES A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AS WE CONTINUE TO DEAL WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATING OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SATURDAY DOES LOOK QUIETER IN A RELATIVE SENSE HOWEVER...AS THE SURFACE FRONT STARTS THE DAY JUST SOUTH OF THE MICHIGAN/OHIO BORDER AND RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SLIDE INTO THE AREA...STRENGTHENING A CAP OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. UNCERTAINTY LIES WITH A SHIFT IN THE MODELS WITH THE 12Z CYCLE...LIFTING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK NORTHWARD FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS LOOKS TO BE DUE TO MODELS GIVING THE UPPER WAVE NOW OVER NEBRASKA/OKLAHOMA MORE CREDIT...AND THE SHORTWAVE DOES LOOK FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL TREND THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION...BUT GIVE PREFERENCE TO THE SLOWER MODEL SOLUTIONS DUE IN PART TO THE COLDER LAKE WATERS AND ALSO DUE TO RECENT TRENDS IN THE MODELS TO PULL THIS FRONT TOO FAR NORTH TOO QUICKLY THE PAST FEW DAYS. AS THE WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES...IT WILL PULL THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF THE MICHIGAN BORDER BACK THROUGH THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT. THIS MAY TRIGGER SHOWERS/TSTORMS AS THIS OCCURS...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED BY THE STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE SATURDAY. ONLY HAVE GOOD CONFIDENCE WITH THE ELEVATED PORTIONS OF THE FRONT MAKING IT UP HERE BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. SURFACE FRONT MAY CLIP LENAWEE COUNTY HOWEVER...ALLOWING SOME SURFACE BASED CONVECTION...BUT INSTABILITY STILL DOESN`T LOOK TO BUILD TOO HIGH...ESPECIALLY WITH EARLY DAY CLOUDS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD LIFT INTO AT LEAST CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AS LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WAVE INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE DAY...PLACING SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN IN THE WARM SECTOR. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE ALREADY WELL-ESTABLISHED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE FRONT...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 80S. SHOWER/TSTORM CHANCES LOOK PRETTY GOOD SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...AND DID CONTINUE WITH HIGHER CHANCES...THOUGH KEPT THEM LIMITED BELOW LIKELY DUE TO RECENT MODEL SHIFTS. WILL NEED A TRIGGER TO FIRE OFF CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...POTENTIALLY LOOKING TO MCV`S/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES FROM UPSTREAM/EARLIER CONVECTION...LAKE BREEZES...AND THEN THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT TOWARDS EVENING. WARM TEMPS/HIGH DEWPOINTS LOOK TO YIELD SB CAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS. WIND PROFILE IS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE...WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW UNDER 30 KNOTS THROUGH ABOUT 600MB. STILL...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY HELP PROMOTE A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN CLOSER TO 2.0 INCHES...AND STORM MOTION SLOWS. EXTENDED FORECAST...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...REMAINS MORE ON THE ACTIVE SIDE AS THE REGION REMAINS FASTENED IN ZONAL FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR VARIOUS SHORTWAVES TO TRANSVERSE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK. CONSISTENT TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE IN PLAY AS HIGHS RANGE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S. MARINE... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAGINAW BAY THIS EVENING AS WINDS REMAIN NORTHEAST AT AROUND 20 KNOTS. SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS AND LOWER WAVE HEIGHTS ON SATURDAY BEFORE AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALLOWS FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH SATURDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH JUST A FEW STORMS EXPECTED OVER LAKE ST CLAIR AND WESTERN LAKE ERIE. A WARM FRONT LIFTING BACK THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL THEN BRING AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE...WITH THE THREAT FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS ON SUNDAY. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ421-422. LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE. MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE. && $$ AVIATION.....MR SHORT TERM...SC LONG TERM....HLO/SS MARINE.......HLO YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
639 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 630 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 CONTINUED TREND OF SIGNIFICANTLY CUTTING NRN EXTEND OF POPS AND LOWER QPF AS MODELS HAVE PERFORMED...AND CONTINUE TO PERFORM...HORRIBLY. HRRR DEFINITELY DOING THE BEST WITH QPF CURRENTLY...SO STARTED WITH THAT AND USED TRENDS FROM THE NAM- DNG/GEM-REGIONAL/HRRR/NCEP-WRFS FOR POP/QPF TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. HAVE CONFINED CHANCE OR GREATER POPS TO S OF A LINE FROM IRON MOUNTAIN TO NEWBERRY. ALSO CLEARED CLOUDS OUT FROM W TO E FASTER ON FRI. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD AROUND 0.75 INCHES OF QPF AT MENOMINEE...BUT CUT THAT BACK TO AROUND 0.35 INCHES NOW. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 356 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 PLAYING CATCH-UP ON THE PRECIP THAT KEEPS ON SHOWING A MORE S TRACK. THIS HAS BEEN THE TREND IN THE FCST SOLUTIONS OVER THE PAST 6-12HRS OR SO. TRANSITIONED FROM NEARLY 2IN OF PRECIP FCST FOR MENOMINEE COUNTY TO LESS THAN AN INCH. AS OF 19Z...MNM HAD PICKED UP 0.10IN. WAS A BIT SURPRISED TO GET REPORTS OF DRIZZLE BEHIND THE LAKE BREEZE N CENTRAL ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT IN OUR MOIST ENVIRO IT MAKES SENSE. ADDED DRIZZLE INITIALLY...AND INCREASED THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH ALL THE HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD IT/S DIFFICULT TO SEE THE FOG EXTENT. LUCKILY THE AREA WEBCAMS HAVE BEEN HELPFUL. THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP REMAINS NEARLY STEADY-STATE AND SLOWLY EXITING ACROSS IRON COUNTY. EXPECT THIS TO PUSH PACK E SLIGHTLY AS THE SFC LOW OVER KS/IA SHIFTS GETS CLOSER /ALONG THE WI/IL BORDER BY 06Z FRIDAY...AND S LAKE MI BY DAYBREAK. PW VALUES MAX OUT AROUND 1.5IN OVER FAR S MENOMINEE COUNTY FROM 03-09Z FRIDAY. UNDER PLENTY OF CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND E...TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S. AT THAT POINT A QUICKER EXIT TO THE PRECIP LOOKS REASONABLE. THE SFC LOW WILL MAKE ITS WAY TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY AS THE LARGE HIGH TO OUR N BUILDS DRY AIR INTO UPPER MI. WARMED UP THE TEMPS FOR TOMORROW BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES CWA WIDE UNDER N- NE WINDS AROUND 12KTS OR LESS. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 THE PRECIPITATION THAT WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WILL HAVE DEPARTED THE AREA BY THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. BEHIND THAT PRECIPITATION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN INTO SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A 1018MB HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY. WITH CLEARING SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW (ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH)...SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER LIGHT WINDS. PWAT VALUES ONLY FALL TO AROUND 0.4IN...SO DON/T EXPECT LOWS TO FALL ENOUGH TO LEAD TO FROST CONCERNS...BUT STILL THINK SOME OF THE TRADITIONAL COLD RAWS SITES TO FALL TO OR JUST BELOW 40 DEGREES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LOWS IN THE REST OF THE AREA TO BE IN THE 40S. SATURDAY WILL BE A NICE DAY ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY. THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES QUICKLY RISE INTO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZES OFF BOTH LAKE SUPERIOR/MICHIGAN WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR THOSE SHORELINES A LITTLE COOLER. DO EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO START LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THAT SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WILL QUICKLY LIFT NORTHEAST AND THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE WAVE...ALONG WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH INTO THE AREA (PWATS RISING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES)...ALTHOUGH THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. WITH THE CONSISTENCY OF THE MODELS IN MOVING THIS PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE U.P....WILL TREND THE POPS UP (GREATEST OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA) FOR SUNDAY AND INCLUDE A BETTER ESTIMATE ON THE TIMING. WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE SURGING INTO THE AREA...DEFINITELY THINK SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE...BUT FORTUNATELY THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FAIRLY QUICKLY. THINK THUNDER WILL LARGELY BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA AND ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCES AT THIS TIME (WHICH MAY END UP BEING OVERDONE). BEHIND THAT WAVE OF PRECIPITATION...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BECOME WESTERLY FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY COMING ONSHORE OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA MOVES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THAT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. LAKE SUPERIOR COULD BE BRUSHED BY A FEW SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLIPS BY THE AREA...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO COME ON WEDNESDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE PULLS OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. SURPRISINGLY AT THIS POINT IN THE FORECAST...THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE TIMING/TRACK OF THE WAVE...SO WILL TREND POPS UP INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THAT MOVES THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA AND LEAD TO A DRY DAY ON THURSDAY. AS FOR TEMPS NEXT WEEK...THE WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY...THEN FALLING TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL VALUES FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY SHIFTING JUST N OF THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE OVER KS AND IA WORKS ACROSS TO S LAKE MI BY 12Z FRIDAY AND EXITS OVER S LOWER MI DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. VFR CEILINGS AND VIS SHOULD LINGER AT ALL 3 TAF SITES. NEARING STEADING LIGHT RAIN FROM THE S MAY MAKE IT INTO SAW LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. VFR CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 356 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 EXPECT PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG INTO FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 25KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY SHIFT OUT OF THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS S LAKE MI. THE LOW WILL MOVE OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY MORNING AS A LARGE HIGH MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE RIDGE WILL EXIT TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES SUNDAY NIGHT. A LOW OVER S WI SUNDAY MORNING WILL MERGE INTO A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH NEAR JAMES BAY ON MONDAY. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE E THROUGH MONDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...TITUS SHORT TERM...KF LONG TERM...SRF AVIATION...KF MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
352 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 504 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 HEAVY RAIN AND NEED FOR HEADLINES TONIGHT IS MAIN CONCERN. SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES SLIDES EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS THIS MORNING LIFTS ACROSS WI TONIGHT AND OVER LOWER MICHIGAN BY FRIDAY MORNING. WARM FRONT...ESPECIALLY ALOFT...COMES CLOSE TO SOUTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BUT REALLY NEVER MAKES IT INTO THE CWA. THINK THIS STALLED OUT WARM FRONT ALOFT WILL HOLD KEY IN HEAVIEST RAIN STAYING ONLY OVER SOUTHERN MENOMINEE COUNTY OR EVEN JUST TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT LARGE SCALE LIFT TO SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA AS EARLY AS THIS AFTN AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE SPREAD NORTHEAST FM THE PLAINS. ALREADY SEEING EXPANDING SHIELD OF RAIN OVER SOUTHWEST MN AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS OVER SOUTHERN THIRD OF MN. HRRR/RAP/NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS THIS AFTN INDICATE THICKENING MID CLOUDS /H7-H5/ WITH DECENT LIFT IN THAT MOIST LAYER. DRY LOW-LEVELS WILL HOLD OFF LIGHT RAIN FOR THE NORTH CWA...BUT PERSISTENT LIFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST LIGHT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN INTO SOUTHERN CWA AS SHOWN BY LATEST HRRR AND RAP MODELS. BOOSTED SKY COVER AND BROUGHT SCT SHRA OVER MUCH OF SOUTH HALF OF CWA AND EVEN SLIGHT CHANCES TO THE NORTH. KEWEENAW SHOULD STAY DRY ALL DAY...AND PERHAPS ALL THE WAY THROUGH DURATION OF THE SYSTEM INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MOISTURE TRANSPORT RAMPS UP CONSIDERABLY AHEAD OF MAIN SHORTWAVE ARRIVAL BUT THINK MAJORITY OF THE STRONGEST MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL STAY ALONG THE WARM FRONT ALOFT AT H85-H7. LACK OF INSTABILITY ALOFT MAY ALSO ACT TO SHUNT HEAVIER RAIN TO THE SOUTH AS WELL. MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAGNITUDE IS VERY IMPRESSIVE THOUGH AND BELIEVE THERE IS OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTH OF ADVECTION TO NUDGE THE WARM FRONT ALOFT AND MAX WARM AIR ADVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY NORTH ENOUGH TO BRING HEAVIER QPF INTO AT LEAST MENOMINEE COUNTY. THIS WOULD OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE SFC-H85 LOW AND ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF SFC LOW OVER WISCONSIN. 00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM-REGIONAL AND HIGHER RES GUIDANCE FM THE NSSL WRF AND MORE THAN HALF OF THE NCAR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS POINT TO THAT IDEA WITH HEAVIEST QPF AFTER 06Z AND PROBABLY AFT 09Z AND ONLY LASTING TIL AROUND 12Z. GFS REALLY HAS TRENDED THIS WAY WITH ITS LAST FEW RUNS. ON THE FLIP SIDE WOULD BE THE NCEP HIGH RES GUIDANCE...KEEPING MAJORITY OF HEAVIER QPF JUST SOUTH OF MENOMINEE COUNTY AND THE 06Z NAM REALLY TRENDING TOWARD LESS QPF OVER ALL BUT FAR SOUTHERN MENONINEE COUNTY. ALL THAT SAID...MODEL TRENDS WITH NORTH TO SOUTH EXTENT OF LIGHTER RAIN AND ALSO STRIPE OF HEAVIER RAIN HAVE BEEN DIZZYING OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. CASE IN POINT IS THE DPROG/DT OF THE RUN TOTAL QPF FM THE NAM ENDING AT 15Z ON FRIDAY. 18Z RUN ON 10 JUNE SHOWED OVER 2 INCHES AS FAR NW AT CRYSTAL FALLS AND IRON MOUNTAIN...BUT NOW SHOWS BARELY ANY QPF AT CRYSTAL FALLS WITH THIS 06Z RUN. GEM FOR LONGEST TIME WAS MAINLY SOUTH OF MENOMINEE COUNTY WITH HEAVIER QPF...BUT JUST WITH 00Z RUN SHIFTED FARTHER NORTH. ECMWF AND GFS HAVE BEEN MORE OR LESS PEGGING NORTHEAST WI INTO SOUTH CENTRAL UPR MICHIGAN FOR HEAVIER STRIPE OF QPF SINCE 12Z/9 JUNE RUN WITH MAIN CHANGES TYING TO HOW FAR NORTH TO SPREAD LIGHTER QPF. HAVE ISSUED A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK STATEMENT /ESFMQT/ FOR MENOMINEE COUNTY TO ADDRESS THE HEAVY RAIN AND ASSOCIATED UNCERTAINTY. ALSO HIGHLIGHTED POTENTIAL FLOODING THAT COULD OCCUR IF THE HEAVIER RAIN SCENARIO ENDS UP VERIFYING. IN THAT CASE...PROBABLY LOOKING AT AT LEAST 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN 3 HOURS...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE RFC FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE FOR MENONIMEE COUNTY. NEED AT LEAST 50 PERCENT CONFIDENCE TO DO A WATCH...BUT GIVEN THE BACK AND FORTH TRENDS AND AN OVERALL TREND TO BE MORE SUPRESSED WITH THE HEAVIEST QPF OFF THE LATEST GUIANCE...WENT ESF ROUTE FOR NOW. ONE POSSIBLE KEY FOR THE FORECAST MAY BE HOW MUCH RAIN OCCURS OVER SOUTHERN MN THROUGH 18Z TODAY. SEEMS THAT IF THAT THERE HEAVIER RAIN VERIFIES THERE... PROBABLY A BETTER SHOT OF SEEING HEAVY QPF OVER SCNTRL CWA TONIGHT. BUT...THAT IS LOOKING AT THINGS IN A LINEAR FASHION WHICH AT TIMES CAN BE EASY TO DO IN THIS PROFESSION...BUT NOT ALWAYS THE PROPER COURSE OF ACTION. HOPEFULLY DAYSHIFT CAN GET SOME TRENDS TO BETTER SEE IF HEAVY RAIN WILL IMPACT SCNTRL CWA OR WILL IT MISS CWA TO THE SOUTH. DESPITE BEING WITHIN 24 HOURS NOW FM POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN...ESF ALLOWS FOR WIGGLE ROOM TO EITHER STEP INTO A WATCH OR ADVISORY OR GO WITH NOTHING IF HEAVY RAIN AXIS SLIDES TO THE SOUTH. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 THE PRECIPITATION THAT WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WILL HAVE DEPARTED THE AREA BY THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. BEHIND THAT PRECIPITATION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN INTO SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A 1018MB HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY. WITH CLEARING SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW (ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH)...SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER LIGHT WINDS. PWAT VALUES ONLY FALL TO AROUND 0.4IN...SO DON/T EXPECT LOWS TO FALL ENOUGH TO LEAD TO FROST CONCERNS...BUT STILL THINK SOME OF THE TRADITIONAL COLD RAWS SITES TO FALL TO OR JUST BELOW 40 DEGREES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LOWS IN THE REST OF THE AREA TO BE IN THE 40S. SATURDAY WILL BE A NICE DAY ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY. THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES QUICKLY RISE INTO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZES OFF BOTH LAKE SUPERIOR/MICHIGAN WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR THOSE SHORELINES A LITTLE COOLER. DO EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO START LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THAT SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WILL QUICKLY LIFT NORTHEAST AND THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE WAVE...ALONG WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH INTO THE AREA (PWATS RISING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES)...ALTHOUGH THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. WITH THE CONSISTENCY OF THE MODELS IN MOVING THIS PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE U.P....WILL TREND THE POPS UP (GREATEST OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA) FOR SUNDAY AND INCLUDE A BETTER ESTIMATE ON THE TIMING. WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE SURGING INTO THE AREA...DEFINITELY THINK SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE...BUT FORTUNATELY THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FAIRLY QUICKLY. THINK THUNDER WILL LARGELY BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA AND ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCES AT THIS TIME (WHICH MAY END UP BEING OVERDONE). BEHIND THAT WAVE OF PRECIPITATION...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BECOME WESTERLY FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY COMING ONSHORE OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA MOVES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THAT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. LAKE SUPERIOR COULD BE BRUSHED BY A FEW SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLIPS BY THE AREA...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO COME ON WEDNESDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE PULLS OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. SURPRISINGLY AT THIS POINT IN THE FORECAST...THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE TIMING/TRACK OF THE WAVE...SO WILL TREND POPS UP INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THAT MOVES THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA AND LEAD TO A DRY DAY ON THURSDAY. AS FOR TEMPS NEXT WEEK...THE WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY...THEN FALLING TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL VALUES FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY SHIFTING JUST N OF THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE OVER KS AND IA WORKS ACROSS TO S LAKE MI BY 12Z FRIDAY AND EXITS OVER S LOWER MI DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. VFR CEILINGS AND VIS SHOULD LINGER AT ALL 3 TAF SITES. NEARING STEADING LIGHT RAIN FROM THE S MAY MAKE IT INTO SAW LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. VFR CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 504 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL EJECT ACROSS SOUTHERN WI AND LOWER MI ON FRIDAY...BUT WINDS WILL ONLY BRIEFLY INCREASE /STILL LESS THAN 25KTS/. HIGH PRESSURE FILLS BACK IN AFTER THE LOW EXITS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATER FRIDAY AND THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLA LONG TERM...SRF AVIATION...KF MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
258 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 504 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 HEAVY RAIN AND NEED FOR HEADLINES TONIGHT IS MAIN CONCERN. SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES SLIDES EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS THIS MORNING LIFTS ACROSS WI TONIGHT AND OVER LOWER MICHIGAN BY FRIDAY MORNING. WARM FRONT...ESPECIALLY ALOFT...COMES CLOSE TO SOUTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BUT REALLY NEVER MAKES IT INTO THE CWA. THINK THIS STALLED OUT WARM FRONT ALOFT WILL HOLD KEY IN HEAVIEST RAIN STAYING ONLY OVER SOUTHERN MENOMINEE COUNTY OR EVEN JUST TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT LARGE SCALE LIFT TO SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA AS EARLY AS THIS AFTN AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE SPREAD NORTHEAST FM THE PLAINS. ALREADY SEEING EXPANDING SHIELD OF RAIN OVER SOUTHWEST MN AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS OVER SOUTHERN THIRD OF MN. HRRR/RAP/NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS THIS AFTN INDICATE THICKENING MID CLOUDS /H7-H5/ WITH DECENT LIFT IN THAT MOIST LAYER. DRY LOW-LEVELS WILL HOLD OFF LIGHT RAIN FOR THE NORTH CWA...BUT PERSISTENT LIFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST LIGHT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN INTO SOUTHERN CWA AS SHOWN BY LATEST HRRR AND RAP MODELS. BOOSTED SKY COVER AND BROUGHT SCT SHRA OVER MUCH OF SOUTH HALF OF CWA AND EVEN SLIGHT CHANCES TO THE NORTH. KEWEENAW SHOULD STAY DRY ALL DAY...AND PERHAPS ALL THE WAY THROUGH DURATION OF THE SYSTEM INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MOISTURE TRANSPORT RAMPS UP CONSIDERABLY AHEAD OF MAIN SHORTWAVE ARRIVAL BUT THINK MAJORITY OF THE STRONGEST MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL STAY ALONG THE WARM FRONT ALOFT AT H85-H7. LACK OF INSTABILITY ALOFT MAY ALSO ACT TO SHUNT HEAVIER RAIN TO THE SOUTH AS WELL. MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAGNITUDE IS VERY IMPRESSIVE THOUGH AND BELIEVE THERE IS OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTH OF ADVECTION TO NUDGE THE WARM FRONT ALOFT AND MAX WARM AIR ADVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY NORTH ENOUGH TO BRING HEAVIER QPF INTO AT LEAST MENOMINEE COUNTY. THIS WOULD OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE SFC-H85 LOW AND ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF SFC LOW OVER WISCONSIN. 00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM-REGIONAL AND HIGHER RES GUIDANCE FM THE NSSL WRF AND MORE THAN HALF OF THE NCAR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS POINT TO THAT IDEA WITH HEAVIEST QPF AFTER 06Z AND PROBABLY AFT 09Z AND ONLY LASTING TIL AROUND 12Z. GFS REALLY HAS TRENDED THIS WAY WITH ITS LAST FEW RUNS. ON THE FLIP SIDE WOULD BE THE NCEP HIGH RES GUIDANCE...KEEPING MAJORITY OF HEAVIER QPF JUST SOUTH OF MENOMINEE COUNTY AND THE 06Z NAM REALLY TRENDING TOWARD LESS QPF OVER ALL BUT FAR SOUTHERN MENONINEE COUNTY. ALL THAT SAID...MODEL TRENDS WITH NORTH TO SOUTH EXTENT OF LIGHTER RAIN AND ALSO STRIPE OF HEAVIER RAIN HAVE BEEN DIZZYING OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. CASE IN POINT IS THE DPROG/DT OF THE RUN TOTAL QPF FM THE NAM ENDING AT 15Z ON FRIDAY. 18Z RUN ON 10 JUNE SHOWED OVER 2 INCHES AS FAR NW AT CRYSTAL FALLS AND IRON MOUNTAIN...BUT NOW SHOWS BARELY ANY QPF AT CRYSTAL FALLS WITH THIS 06Z RUN. GEM FOR LONGEST TIME WAS MAINLY SOUTH OF MENOMINEE COUNTY WITH HEAVIER QPF...BUT JUST WITH 00Z RUN SHIFTED FARTHER NORTH. ECMWF AND GFS HAVE BEEN MORE OR LESS PEGGING NORTHEAST WI INTO SOUTH CENTRAL UPR MICHIGAN FOR HEAVIER STRIPE OF QPF SINCE 12Z/9 JUNE RUN WITH MAIN CHANGES TYING TO HOW FAR NORTH TO SPREAD LIGHTER QPF. HAVE ISSUED A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK STATEMENT /ESFMQT/ FOR MENOMINEE COUNTY TO ADDRESS THE HEAVY RAIN AND ASSOCIATED UNCERTAINTY. ALSO HIGHLIGHTED POTENTIAL FLOODING THAT COULD OCCUR IF THE HEAVIER RAIN SCENARIO ENDS UP VERIFYING. IN THAT CASE...PROBABLY LOOKING AT AT LEAST 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN 3 HOURS...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE RFC FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE FOR MENONIMEE COUNTY. NEED AT LEAST 50 PERCENT CONFIDENCE TO DO A WATCH...BUT GIVEN THE BACK AND FORTH TRENDS AND AN OVERALL TREND TO BE MORE SUPRESSED WITH THE HEAVIEST QPF OFF THE LATEST GUIANCE...WENT ESF ROUTE FOR NOW. ONE POSSIBLE KEY FOR THE FORECAST MAY BE HOW MUCH RAIN OCCURS OVER SOUTHERN MN THROUGH 18Z TODAY. SEEMS THAT IF THAT THERE HEAVIER RAIN VERIFIES THERE... PROBABLY A BETTER SHOT OF SEEING HEAVY QPF OVER SCNTRL CWA TONIGHT. BUT...THAT IS LOOKING AT THINGS IN A LINEAR FASHION WHICH AT TIMES CAN BE EASY TO DO IN THIS PROFESSION...BUT NOT ALWAYS THE PROPER COURSE OF ACTION. HOPEFULLY DAYSHIFT CAN GET SOME TRENDS TO BETTER SEE IF HEAVY RAIN WILL IMPACT SCNTRL CWA OR WILL IT MISS CWA TO THE SOUTH. DESPITE BEING WITHIN 24 HOURS NOW FM POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN...ESF ALLOWS FOR WIGGLE ROOM TO EITHER STEP INTO A WATCH OR ADVISORY OR GO WITH NOTHING IF HEAVY RAIN AXIS SLIDES TO THE SOUTH. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 513 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 FRIDAY...EXPECT THE RAIN...MAINLY OVER THE SE HALF OF THE CWA...TO END DURING THE MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THE FCST MAINTAINS CONTINUITY BY FAVORING THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER NAM/REGIONAL-GEM/ECMWF COMPARED TO THE FASTER GFS IN TIMING THE END OF THE PCPN. EXPECT SOME CLEARING LATER INTO THE AFTERNOON CENTRAL AND EAST WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. INLAND TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT CLOUDS AND NE WINDS OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S NORTH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. FRI NIGHT AND SAT...SFC AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA. WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SATURDAY WILL PUSH TEMPS TO AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S INLAND. LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL ALLOW LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP KEEPING READINGS IN THE 60S ALONG THE LAKES. SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...A BROAD TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE NW CONUS WITH RIDGING OVER THE SE WILL RESULT IN SW FLOW FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS SUGGEST A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE SRN PLAINS COULD SPREAD SHRA AND POSSIBLY A FEW TSRA INTO THE WRN LAKES. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING/POSITION OF ANY HEAVIER PCPN IS LIMITED...WITH PWATS CLIMBING AOA 1.5 INCH SOME AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE. MON-WED...AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS INTO NRN ONTARIO AND THE MAIN SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE LAKES...EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE EVEN IF ANY WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA IN DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW. BY WED...SHOWER CHANCES MAY INCREASE AS THE GFS/GEFS/ECMWF SUGGEST A MID LEVEL AND SFC TROUGH WILL APPROACH OR MOVE INTO THE REGION. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY SHIFTING JUST N OF THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE OVER KS AND IA WORKS ACROSS TO S LAKE MI BY 12Z FRIDAY AND EXITS OVER S LOWER MI DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. VFR CEILINGS AND VIS SHOULD LINGER AT ALL 3 TAF SITES. NEARING STEADING LIGHT RAIN FROM THE S MAY MAKE IT INTO SAW LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. VFR CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 504 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL EJECT ACROSS SOUTHERN WI AND LOWER MI ON FRIDAY...BUT WINDS WILL ONLY BRIEFLY INCREASE /STILL LESS THAN 25KTS/. HIGH PRESSURE FILLS BACK IN AFTER THE LOW EXITS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATER FRIDAY AND THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLA LONG TERM...JLB AVIATION...KF MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1220 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 LATEST UPDATE... AVIATION .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS... WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FROM WISCONSIN INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. MEANWHILE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST FROM IOWA TO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. RAIN CHANCES WILL TEMPORARILY DIMINISH OR END FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH OF THE STATE... BUT INCREASE AGAIN FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT COMES BACK NORTH AGAIN. && .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1149 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY...INCLUDING PUTTING LIKELY POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH INTO THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...AND BEING NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THE INSTABILITY WILL STRUGGLE SO THUNDERSTORM SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE COULD BE AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE TOWARD 00Z NEAR I-94 AS THE LOW LEVEL JET APPROACHES AND INSTABILITY BUILDS. THESE I-94 STORMS COULD ALSO TREND STRONGER. STILL BELIEVE THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN MOVES IN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 TWO THINGS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: THE FIRST WILL BE FOR SCATTERED DISCRETE STRONG TO SVR CELLS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SW CORNER OF LWR MI THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN RECENTLY ACTIVE NARROW WEST-EAST CORRIDOR NEAR THE WARM FRONT. THERE WERE SEVERAL REPORTS OF SVR HAIL/WINDS ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS NRN IL/IN INTO EXTREME SE LWR MI. THIS CORRIDOR IS SHOWN TO DRIFT BACK SLOWLY NORTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HRRR AND NSSL WRF SHOWING CONVECTIVE INITIATION AFTER 18Z SOUTH OF GRR IN THE VAN BUREN/KALAMAZOO/CALHOUN COUNTY AREAS WHERE SFC CAPES RISE TO 1000- 2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. THE OTHER THING TO WATCH FOR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING IS ANY CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS MOVING EAST FROM THE ERN IA/SRN WI/NRN IL AREA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE IMPRESSIVE TODAY WITH 40-60KT SHOWN FOR 0-6KM. THIS SUPPORTS ORGANIZED CONVECTION RIDING EAST ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT INTO SRN LWR MI WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG DAMAGING WINDS. LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY IN ADDITION TO A CONTINUED SVR WEATHER THREAT RIDING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL DEVELOPS AS 40-50 KT SWLY LLJ DEVELOPS FROM THE QUAD CITIES TOWARD NRN LWR MI WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES. THE SET UP FAVORS HEAVIEST RAIN NEAR AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 10 WHERE OVER 2 INCHES COULD FALL. GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH EXPECTED FARTHER SOUTH. THE SVR WEATHER THREAT FOR FRIDAY IS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR AND MAINLY BEFORE 21Z WHERE INSTABILITY MAY HAVE A CHANCE TO RECOVER BY EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE FROPA. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 THE SUN THROUGH MON TIME FRAME LOOKS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FCST FOR THAT TIME FRAME. SAT NIGHT LOOKS TO CONTINUE THE MAINLY DRY PERIOD THAT WE WILL SEE ON SAT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. UPPER RIDGING WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING OUT...AND IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE BIT TO SATURATE THE AIR MASS ONCE AGAIN. WE DO LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MOVE BACK IN DURING THE DAY ON SUN AND CONTINUE THROUGH MON. WE WILL SEE THE MAIN TROUGH THAT WILL BE AFFECTING THE DESERT SW FROM TODAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND EJECT TO THE NE IN A SOMEWHAT SIMILAR FASHION TO THE WAVE COMING IN LATE TONIGHT AND FRI. ANOTHER GOOD SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN AHEAD OF THE WAVE...AND THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME DECENT INSTABILITY TO BE PRESENT ON SUN. THE WAVE WILL MOVE BY ON MON...AND THE COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH DROPS DOWN ACROSS THE MIDWEST. WE HAVE DRIED THE FCST OUT A BIT FOR THE TUE AND TUE NIGHT TIME FRAME. BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT IN PUSHING THE FRONT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH BY TUE INCREASES OUR THAT THE AREA WILL SEE A DRY DAY. THIS COULD BE ANOTHER SHORT BREAK AS A SOMEWHAT ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AND WILL SEND SHORT WAVES THROUGH THE FLOW. THESE SHORT WAVES COULD TOUCH OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS AS THEY RIDE ALONG THE NEARLY STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINNING AGAIN ON WED. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY VFR. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS SLOWLY NORTH INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND A LOW PRESSURE WAVE TRACKS EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY FRIDAY. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY DIP DOWN INTO THE IFR FLIGHT CATEGORY AT TIMES IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. HOWEVER PREVAILING CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD STAY VFR. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 THE MAIN CONCERN OVER LK MI NEXT 48 HOURS IS FREQUENT TSTMS AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF STRONGER SSW FLOW LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY SOUTH OF MUSKEGON OTHERWISE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD LIMIT WAVE HEIGHTS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF MUSKEGON. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 1149 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015 RIVER LEVELS ACROSS THE LOWER PENINSULA ARE RUNNING NEAR TO SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE UPCOMING SYSTEM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY WILL FEATURE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND THUS THERE ARE SOME FLOODING CONCERNS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES AND APPROACHING 2 INCHES FOR THURSDAY-FRIDAY ARE CLIMATOLOGICALLY AT LEAST 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS AREA FOR EARLY-MID JUNE... PERHAPS NEAR RECORD. THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL... AND AT LEAST SHORT DURATION AREAL FLOODING ISSUES WHERE STORMS PERSIST. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS A LOW LEVEL JET INTERSECTING A WARM FRONT PRODUCES CONVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT. A BAND OF OVER 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL APPEARS LIKELY. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR OVER CENTRAL OR NORTHERN MICHIGAN... WHICH WOULD INCLUDE COUNTIES IN OUR NORTHERN CWA AS WELL AS WFO GAYLORD`S AREA. INCREASED SOIL MOISTURE AND RIVER LEVELS AFTER THIS EVENT WILL SET THE BASELINE FOR INCREASED HYDRO CONCERNS INTO NEXT WEEK AS ADDITIONAL WAVES OF PRECIPITATION MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JK SYNOPSIS...MEADE SHORT TERM...MEADE LONG TERM...NJJ AVIATION...LAURENS HYDROLOGY...CAS MARINE...MEADE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1149 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 LATEST UPDATE... UPDATE .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS... WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FROM WISCONSIN INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. MEANWHILE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST FROM IOWA TO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. RAIN CHANCES WILL TEMPORARILY DIMINISH OR END FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH OF THE STATE... BUT INCREASE AGAIN FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT COMES BACK NORTH AGAIN. && .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1149 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY...INCLUDING PUTTING LIKELY POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH INTO THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...AND BEING NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THE INSTABILITY WILL STRUGGLE SO THUNDERSTORM SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE COULD BE AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE TOWARD 00Z NEAR I-94 AS THE LOW LEVEL JET APPROACHES AND INSTABILITY BUILDS. THESE I-94 STORMS COULD ALSO TREND STRONGER. STILL BELIEVE THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN MOVES IN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 TWO THINGS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: THE FIRST WILL BE FOR SCATTERED DISCRETE STRONG TO SVR CELLS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SW CORNER OF LWR MI THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN RECENTLY ACTIVE NARROW WEST-EAST CORRIDOR NEAR THE WARM FRONT. THERE WERE SEVERAL REPORTS OF SVR HAIL/WINDS ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS NRN IL/IN INTO EXTREME SE LWR MI. THIS CORRIDOR IS SHOWN TO DRIFT BACK SLOWLY NORTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HRRR AND NSSL WRF SHOWING CONVECTIVE INITIATION AFTER 18Z SOUTH OF GRR IN THE VAN BUREN/KALAMAZOO/CALHOUN COUNTY AREAS WHERE SFC CAPES RISE TO 1000- 2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. THE OTHER THING TO WATCH FOR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING IS ANY CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS MOVING EAST FROM THE ERN IA/SRN WI/NRN IL AREA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE IMPRESSIVE TODAY WITH 40-60KT SHOWN FOR 0-6KM. THIS SUPPORTS ORGANIZED CONVECTION RIDING EAST ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT INTO SRN LWR MI WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG DAMAGING WINDS. LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY IN ADDITION TO A CONTINUED SVR WEATHER THREAT RIDING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL DEVELOPS AS 40-50 KT SWLY LLJ DEVELOPS FROM THE QUAD CITIES TOWARD NRN LWR MI WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES. THE SET UP FAVORS HEAVIEST RAIN NEAR AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 10 WHERE OVER 2 INCHES COULD FALL. GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH EXPECTED FARTHER SOUTH. THE SVR WEATHER THREAT FOR FRIDAY IS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR AND MAINLY BEFORE 21Z WHERE INSTABILITY MAY HAVE A CHANCE TO RECOVER BY EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE FROPA. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 THE SUN THROUGH MON TIME FRAME LOOKS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FCST FOR THAT TIME FRAME. SAT NIGHT LOOKS TO CONTINUE THE MAINLY DRY PERIOD THAT WE WILL SEE ON SAT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. UPPER RIDGING WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING OUT...AND IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE BIT TO SATURATE THE AIR MASS ONCE AGAIN. WE DO LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MOVE BACK IN DURING THE DAY ON SUN AND CONTINUE THROUGH MON. WE WILL SEE THE MAIN TROUGH THAT WILL BE AFFECTING THE DESERT SW FROM TODAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND EJECT TO THE NE IN A SOMEWHAT SIMILAR FASHION TO THE WAVE COMING IN LATE TONIGHT AND FRI. ANOTHER GOOD SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN AHEAD OF THE WAVE...AND THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME DECENT INSTABILITY TO BE PRESENT ON SUN. THE WAVE WILL MOVE BY ON MON...AND THE COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH DROPS DOWN ACROSS THE MIDWEST. WE HAVE DRIED THE FCST OUT A BIT FOR THE TUE AND TUE NIGHT TIME FRAME. BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT IN PUSHING THE FRONT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH BY TUE INCREASES OUR THAT THE AREA WILL SEE A DRY DAY. THIS COULD BE ANOTHER SHORT BREAK AS A SOMEWHAT ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AND WILL SEND SHORT WAVES THROUGH THE FLOW. THESE SHORT WAVES COULD TOUCH OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS AS THEY RIDE ALONG THE NEARLY STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINNING AGAIN ON WED. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 753 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 FOR THE MOST PART VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. IN AN ACTIVE WARM FRONTAL PATTERN LIKE THIS IT IS ALWAYS DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN THE SPECIFIC CONVECTIVE TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IF/WHEN TSTM CLUSTERS IMPACT THE TERMINALS THERE MAY BE A PERIOD(S) OF IFR WITH HEAVY RAIN AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME HAIL AND/OR STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KTS. CURRENTLY RADAR SHOWS A POSSIBLE MCV DRIFTING NORTHEAST FROM NW IND AND THIS FEATURE COULD SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND TSTMS LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON... ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF GRR WHERE INSTABILITY INCREASES BY AFTERNOON. WE WILL ALSO BE WATCHING UPSTREAM ACTIVITY OVER WI/IL LATER TODAY AS IT SHOULD TRACK EAST ALONG THE WARM FRONT INTO SRN LWR MI. MKG AND GRR MAY TREND MOSTLY MVFR LATE TONIGHT WHERE RAIN SHOULD BECOME MORE PERSISTENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 THE MAIN CONCERN OVER LK MI NEXT 48 HOURS IS FREQUENT TSTMS AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF STRONGER SSW FLOW LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY SOUTH OF MUSKEGON OTHERWISE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD LIMIT WAVE HEIGHTS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF MUSKEGON. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 1149 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015 RIVER LEVELS ACROSS THE LOWER PENINSULA ARE RUNNING NEAR TO SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE UPCOMING SYSTEM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY WILL FEATURE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND THUS THERE ARE SOME FLOODING CONCERNS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES AND APPROACHING 2 INCHES FOR THURSDAY-FRIDAY ARE CLIMATOLOGICALLY AT LEAST 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS AREA FOR EARLY-MID JUNE... PERHAPS NEAR RECORD. THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL... AND AT LEAST SHORT DURATION AREAL FLOODING ISSUES WHERE STORMS PERSIST. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS A LOW LEVEL JET INTERSECTING A WARM FRONT PRODUCES CONVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT. A BAND OF OVER 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL APPEARS LIKELY. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR OVER CENTRAL OR NORTHERN MICHIGAN... WHICH WOULD INCLUDE COUNTIES IN OUR NORTHERN CWA AS WELL AS WFO GAYLORD`S AREA. INCREASED SOIL MOISTURE AND RIVER LEVELS AFTER THIS EVENT WILL SET THE BASELINE FOR INCREASED HYDRO CONCERNS INTO NEXT WEEK AS ADDITIONAL WAVES OF PRECIPITATION MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JK SYNOPSIS...MEADE SHORT TERM...MEADE LONG TERM...NJJ AVIATION...MEADE HYDROLOGY...CAS MARINE...MEADE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
753 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 LATEST UPDATE... AVIATION .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS... WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FROM WISCONSIN INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. MEANWHILE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST FROM IOWA TO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. RAIN CHANCES WILL TEMPORARILY DIMINISH OR END FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH OF THE STATE... BUT INCREASE AGAIN FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT COMES BACK NORTH AGAIN. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 TWO THINGS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: THE FIRST WILL BE FOR SCATTERED DISCRETE STRONG TO SVR CELLS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SW CORNER OF LWR MI THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN RECENTLY ACTIVE NARROW WEST-EAST CORRIDOR NEAR THE WARM FRONT. THERE WERE SEVERAL REPORTS OF SVR HAIL/WINDS ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS NRN IL/IN INTO EXTREME SE LWR MI. THIS CORRIDOR IS SHOWN TO DRIFT BACK SLOWLY NORTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HRRR AND NSSL WRF SHOWING CONVECTIVE INITIATION AFTER 18Z SOUTH OF GRR IN THE VAN BUREN/KALAMAZOO/CALHOUN COUNTY AREAS WHERE SFC CAPES RISE TO 1000- 2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. THE OTHER THING TO WATCH FOR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING IS ANY CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS MOVING EAST FROM THE ERN IA/SRN WI/NRN IL AREA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE IMPRESSIVE TODAY WITH 40-60KT SHOWN FOR 0-6KM. THIS SUPPORTS ORGANIZED CONVECTION RIDING EAST ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT INTO SRN LWR MI WITH THE POSSIBILITYOF STRONG DAMAGING WINDS. LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY IN ADDITION TO A CONTINUED SVR WEATHER THREAT RIDING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL DEVELOPS AS 40-50 KT SWLY LLJ DEVELOPS FROM THE QUAD CITIES TOWARD NRN LWR MI WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES. THE SET UP FAVORS HEAVIEST RAIN NEAR AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 10 WHERE OVER 2 INCHES COULD FALL. GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH EXPECTED FARTHER SOUTH. THE SVR WEATHER THREAT FOR FRIDAY IS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR AND MAINLY BEFORE 21Z WHERE INSTABILITY MAY HAVE A CHANCE TO RECOVER BY EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE FROPA. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 THE SUN THROUGH MON TIME FRAME LOOKS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FCST FOR THAT TIME FRAME. SAT NIGHT LOOKS TO CONTINUE THE MAINLY DRY PERIOD THAT WE WILL SEE ON SAT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. UPPER RIDGING WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING OUT...AND IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE BIT TO SATURATE THE AIR MASS ONCE AGAIN. WE DO LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MOVE BACK IN DURING THE DAY ON SUN AND CONTINUE THROUGH MON. WE WILL SEE THE MAIN TROUGH THAT WILL BE AFFECTING THE DESERT SW FROM TODAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND EJECT TO THE NE IN A SOMEWHAT SIMILAR FASHION TO THE WAVE COMING IN LATE TONIGHT AND FRI. ANOTHER GOOD SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN AHEAD OF THE WAVE...AND THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME DECENT INSTABILITY TO BE PRESENT ON SUN. THE WAVE WILL MOVE BY ON MON...AND THE COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH DROPS DOWN ACROSS THE MIDWEST. WE HAVE DRIED THE FCST OUT A BIT FOR THE TUE AND TUE NIGHT TIME FRAME. BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT IN PUSHING THE FRONT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH BY TUE INCREASES OUR THAT THE AREA WILL SEE A DRY DAY. THIS COULD BE ANOTHER SHORT BREAK AS A SOMEWHAT ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AND WILL SEND SHORT WAVES THROUGH THE FLOW. THESE SHORT WAVES COULD TOUCH OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS AS THEY RIDE ALONG THE NEARLY STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINNING AGAIN ON WED. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 753 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 FOR THE MOST PART VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. IN AN ACTIVE WARM FRONTAL PATTERN LIKE THIS IT IS ALWAYS DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN THE SPECIFIC CONVECTIVE TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IF/WHEN TSTM CLUSTERS IMPACT THE TERMINALS THERE MAY BE A PERIOD(S) OF IFR WITH HEAVY RAIN AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME HAIL AND/OR STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KTS. CURRENTLY RADAR SHOWS A POSSIBLE MCV DRIFTING NORTHEAST FROM NW IND AND THIS FEATURE COULD SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND TSTMS LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON... ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF GRR WHERE INSTABILITY INCREASES BY AFTERNOON. WE WILL ALSO BE WATCHING UPSTREAM ACTIVITY OVER WI/IL LATER TODAY AS IT SHOULD TRACK EAST ALONG THE WARM FRONT INTO SRN LWR MI. MKG AND GRR MAY TREND MOSTLY MVFR LATE TONIGHT WHERE RAIN SHOULD BECOME MORE PERSISTENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 THE MAIN CONCERN OVER LK MI NEXT 48 HOURS IS FREQUENT TSTMS AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF STRONGER SSW FLOW LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY SOUTH OF MUSKEGON OTHERWISE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD LIMIT WAVE HEIGHTS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF MUSKEGON. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 1149 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015 RIVER LEVELS ACROSS THE LOWER PENINSULA ARE RUNNING NEAR TO SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE UPCOMING SYSTEM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY WILL FEATURE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND THUS THERE ARE SOME FLOODING CONCERNS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES AND APPROACHING 2 INCHES FOR THURSDAY-FRIDAY ARE CLIMATOLOGICALLY AT LEAST 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS AREA FOR EARLY-MID JUNE... PERHAPS NEAR RECORD. THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL... AND AT LEAST SHORT DURATION AREAL FLOODING ISSUES WHERE STORMS PERSIST. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS A LOW LEVEL JET INTERSECTING A WARM FRONT PRODUCES CONVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT. A BAND OF OVER 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL APPEARS LIKELY. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR OVER CENTRAL OR NORTHERN MICHIGAN... WHICH WOULD INCLUDE COUNTIES IN OUR NORTHERN CWA AS WELL AS WFO GAYLORD`S AREA. INCREASED SOIL MOISTURE AND RIVER LEVELS AFTER THIS EVENT WILL SET THE BASELINE FOR INCREASED HYDRO CONCERNS INTO NEXT WEEK AS ADDITIONAL WAVES OF PRECIPITATION MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MEADE SHORT TERM...MEADE LONG TERM...NJJ AVIATION...MEADE HYDROLOGY...CAS MARINE...MEADE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
743 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 504 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 HEAVY RAIN AND NEED FOR HEADLINES TONIGHT IS MAIN CONCERN. SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES SLIDES EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS THIS MORNING LIFTS ACROSS WI TONIGHT AND OVER LOWER MICHIGAN BY FRIDAY MORNING. WARM FRONT...ESPECIALLY ALOFT...COMES CLOSE TO SOUTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BUT REALLY NEVER MAKES IT INTO THE CWA. THINK THIS STALLED OUT WARM FRONT ALOFT WILL HOLD KEY IN HEAVIEST RAIN STAYING ONLY OVER SOUTHERN MENOMINEE COUNTY OR EVEN JUST TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT LARGE SCALE LIFT TO SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA AS EARLY AS THIS AFTN AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE SPREAD NORTHEAST FM THE PLAINS. ALREADY SEEING EXPANDING SHIELD OF RAIN OVER SOUTHWEST MN AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS OVER SOUTHERN THIRD OF MN. HRRR/RAP/NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS THIS AFTN INDICATE THICKENING MID CLOUDS /H7-H5/ WITH DECENT LIFT IN THAT MOIST LAYER. DRY LOW-LEVELS WILL HOLD OFF LIGHT RAIN FOR THE NORTH CWA...BUT PERSISTENT LIFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST LIGHT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN INTO SOUTHERN CWA AS SHOWN BY LATEST HRRR AND RAP MODELS. BOOSTED SKY COVER AND BROUGHT SCT SHRA OVER MUCH OF SOUTH HALF OF CWA AND EVEN SLIGHT CHANCES TO THE NORTH. KEWEENAW SHOULD STAY DRY ALL DAY...AND PERHAPS ALL THE WAY THROUGH DURATION OF THE SYSTEM INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MOISTURE TRANSPORT RAMPS UP CONSIDERABLY AHEAD OF MAIN SHORTWAVE ARRIVAL BUT THINK MAJORITY OF THE STRONGEST MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL STAY ALONG THE WARM FRONT ALOFT AT H85-H7. LACK OF INSTABILITY ALOFT MAY ALSO ACT TO SHUNT HEAVIER RAIN TO THE SOUTH AS WELL. MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAGNITUDE IS VERY IMPRESSIVE THOUGH AND BELIEVE THERE IS OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTH OF ADVECTION TO NUDGE THE WARM FRONT ALOFT AND MAX WARM AIR ADVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY NORTH ENOUGH TO BRING HEAVIER QPF INTO AT LEAST MENOMINEE COUNTY. THIS WOULD OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE SFC-H85 LOW AND ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF SFC LOW OVER WISCONSIN. 00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM-REGIONAL AND HIGHER RES GUIDANCE FM THE NSSL WRF AND MORE THAN HALF OF THE NCAR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS POINT TO THAT IDEA WITH HEAVIEST QPF AFTER 06Z AND PROBABLY AFT 09Z AND ONLY LASTING TIL AROUND 12Z. GFS REALLY HAS TRENDED THIS WAY WITH ITS LAST FEW RUNS. ON THE FLIP SIDE WOULD BE THE NCEP HIGH RES GUIDANCE...KEEPING MAJORITY OF HEAVIER QPF JUST SOUTH OF MENOMINEE COUNTY AND THE 06Z NAM REALLY TRENDING TOWARD LESS QPF OVER ALL BUT FAR SOUTHERN MENONINEE COUNTY. ALL THAT SAID...MODEL TRENDS WITH NORTH TO SOUTH EXTENT OF LIGHTER RAIN AND ALSO STRIPE OF HEAVIER RAIN HAVE BEEN DIZZYING OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. CASE IN POINT IS THE DPROG/DT OF THE RUN TOTAL QPF FM THE NAM ENDING AT 15Z ON FRIDAY. 18Z RUN ON 10 JUNE SHOWED OVER 2 INCHES AS FAR NW AT CRYSTAL FALLS AND IRON MOUNTAIN...BUT NOW SHOWS BARELY ANY QPF AT CRYSTAL FALLS WITH THIS 06Z RUN. GEM FOR LONGEST TIME WAS MAINLY SOUTH OF MENOMINEE COUNTY WITH HEAVIER QPF...BUT JUST WITH 00Z RUN SHIFTED FARTHER NORTH. ECMWF AND GFS HAVE BEEN MORE OR LESS PEGGING NORTHEAST WI INTO SOUTH CENTRAL UPR MICHIGAN FOR HEAVIER STRIPE OF QPF SINCE 12Z/9 JUNE RUN WITH MAIN CHANGES TYING TO HOW FAR NORTH TO SPREAD LIGHTER QPF. HAVE ISSUED A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK STATEMENT /ESFMQT/ FOR MENOMINEE COUNTY TO ADDRESS THE HEAVY RAIN AND ASSOCIATED UNCERTAINTY. ALSO HIGHLIGHTED POTENTIAL FLOODING THAT COULD OCCUR IF THE HEAVIER RAIN SCENARIO ENDS UP VERIFYING. IN THAT CASE...PROBABLY LOOKING AT AT LEAST 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN 3 HOURS...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE RFC FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE FOR MENONIMEE COUNTY. NEED AT LEAST 50 PERCENT CONFIDENCE TO DO A WATCH...BUT GIVEN THE BACK AND FORTH TRENDS AND AN OVERALL TREND TO BE MORE SUPRESSED WITH THE HEAVIEST QPF OFF THE LATEST GUIANCE...WENT ESF ROUTE FOR NOW. ONE POSSIBLE KEY FOR THE FORECAST MAY BE HOW MUCH RAIN OCCURS OVER SOUTHERN MN THROUGH 18Z TODAY. SEEMS THAT IF THAT THERE HEAVIER RAIN VERIFIES THERE... PROBABLY A BETTER SHOT OF SEEING HEAVY QPF OVER SCNTRL CWA TONIGHT. BUT...THAT IS LOOKING AT THINGS IN A LINEAR FASHION WHICH AT TIMES CAN BE EASY TO DO IN THIS PROFESSION...BUT NOT ALWAYS THE PROPER COURSE OF ACTION. HOPEFULLY DAYSHIFT CAN GET SOME TRENDS TO BETTER SEE IF HEAVY RAIN WILL IMPACT SCNTRL CWA OR WILL IT MISS CWA TO THE SOUTH. DESPITE BEING WITHIN 24 HOURS NOW FM POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN...ESF ALLOWS FOR WIGGLE ROOM TO EITHER STEP INTO A WATCH OR ADVISORY OR GO WITH NOTHING IF HEAVY RAIN AXIS SLIDES TO THE SOUTH. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 513 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 FRIDAY...EXPECT THE RAIN...MAINLY OVER THE SE HALF OF THE CWA...TO END DURING THE MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THE FCST MAINTAINS CONTINUITY BY FAVORING THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER NAM/REGIONAL-GEM/ECMWF COMPARED TO THE FASTER GFS IN TIMING THE END OF THE PCPN. EXPECT SOME CLEARING LATER INTO THE AFTERNOON CENTRAL AND EAST WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. INLAND TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT CLOUDS AND NE WINDS OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S NORTH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. FRI NIGHT AND SAT...SFC AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA. WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SATURDAY WILL PUSH TEMPS TO AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S INLAND. LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL ALLOW LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP KEEPING READINGS IN THE 60S ALONG THE LAKES. SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...A BROAD TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE NW CONUS WITH RIDGING OVER THE SE WILL RESULT IN SW FLOW FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS SUGGEST A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE SRN PLAINS COULD SPREAD SHRA AND POSSIBLY A FEW TSRA INTO THE WRN LAKES. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING/POSITION OF ANY HEAVIER PCPN IS LIMITED...WITH PWATS CLIMBING AOA 1.5 INCH SOME AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE. MON-WED...AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS INTO NRN ONTARIO AND THE MAIN SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE LAKES...EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE EVEN IF ANY WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA IN DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW. BY WED...SHOWER CHANCES MAY INCREASE AS THE GFS/GEFS/ECMWF SUGGEST A MID LEVEL AND SFC TROUGH WILL APPROACH OR MOVE INTO THE REGION. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 739 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN COULD AFFECT KSAW THIS AFTN BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...BUT NO REDUCTION TO VSBY IS EXPECTED. ANOTHER WAVE OF RAIN WILL SLIDE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT...BUT ATTM EXPECT THE MAIN SHIELD OF RAIN TO STAY SOUTH OF ALL THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 504 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL EJECT ACROSS SOUTHERN WI AND LOWER MI ON FRIDAY...BUT WINDS WILL ONLY BRIEFLY INCREASE /STILL LESS THAN 25KTS/. HIGH PRESSURE FILLS BACK IN AFTER THE LOW EXITS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATER FRIDAY AND THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLA LONG TERM...JLB AVIATION...JLA MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
514 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 504 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 HEAVY RAIN AND NEED FOR HEADLINES TONIGHT IS MAIN CONCERN. SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES SLIDES EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS THIS MORNING LIFTS ACROSS WI TONIGHT AND OVER LOWER MICHIGAN BY FRIDAY MORNING. WARM FRONT...ESPECIALLY ALOFT...COMES CLOSE TO SOUTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BUT REALLY NEVER MAKES IT INTO THE CWA. THINK THIS STALLED OUT WARM FRONT ALOFT WILL HOLD KEY IN HEAVIEST RAIN STAYING ONLY OVER SOUTHERN MENOMINEE COUNTY OR EVEN JUST TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT LARGE SCALE LIFT TO SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA AS EARLY AS THIS AFTN AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE SPREAD NORTHEAST FM THE PLAINS. ALREADY SEEING EXPANDING SHIELD OF RAIN OVER SOUTHWEST MN AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS OVER SOUTHERN THIRD OF MN. HRRR/RAP/NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS THIS AFTN INDICATE THICKENING MID CLOUDS /H7-H5/ WITH DECENT LIFT IN THAT MOIST LAYER. DRY LOW-LEVELS WILL HOLD OFF LIGHT RAIN FOR THE NORTH CWA...BUT PERSISTENT LIFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST LIGHT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN INTO SOUTHERN CWA AS SHOWN BY LATEST HRRR AND RAP MODELS. BOOSTED SKY COVER AND BROUGHT SCT SHRA OVER MUCH OF SOUTH HALF OF CWA AND EVEN SLIGHT CHANCES TO THE NORTH. KEWEENAW SHOULD STAY DRY ALL DAY...AND PERHAPS ALL THE WAY THROUGH DURATION OF THE SYSTEM INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MOISTURE TRANSPORT RAMPS UP CONSIDERABLY AHEAD OF MAIN SHORTWAVE ARRIVAL BUT THINK MAJORITY OF THE STRONGEST MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL STAY ALONG THE WARM FRONT ALOFT AT H85-H7. LACK OF INSTABILITY ALOFT MAY ALSO ACT TO SHUNT HEAVIER RAIN TO THE SOUTH AS WELL. MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAGNITUDE IS VERY IMPRESSIVE THOUGH AND BELIEVE THERE IS OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTH OF ADVECTION TO NUDGE THE WARM FRONT ALOFT AND MAX WARM AIR ADVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY NORTH ENOUGH TO BRING HEAVIER QPF INTO AT LEAST MENOMINEE COUNTY. THIS WOULD OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE SFC-H85 LOW AND ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF SFC LOW OVER WISCONSIN. 00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM-REGIONAL AND HIGHER RES GUIDANCE FM THE NSSL WRF AND MORE THAN HALF OF THE NCAR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS POINT TO THAT IDEA WITH HEAVIEST QPF AFTER 06Z AND PROBABLY AFT 09Z AND ONLY LASTING TIL AROUND 12Z. GFS REALLY HAS TRENDED THIS WAY WITH ITS LAST FEW RUNS. ON THE FLIP SIDE WOULD BE THE NCEP HIGH RES GUIDANCE...KEEPING MAJORITY OF HEAVIER QPF JUST SOUTH OF MENOMINEE COUNTY AND THE 06Z NAM REALLY TRENDING TOWARD LESS QPF OVER ALL BUT FAR SOUTHERN MENONINEE COUNTY. ALL THAT SAID...MODEL TRENDS WITH NORTH TO SOUTH EXTENT OF LIGHTER RAIN AND ALSO STRIPE OF HEAVIER RAIN HAVE BEEN DIZZYING OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. CASE IN POINT IS THE DPROG/DT OF THE RUN TOTAL QPF FM THE NAM ENDING AT 15Z ON FRIDAY. 18Z RUN ON 10 JUNE SHOWED OVER 2 INCHES AS FAR NW AT CRYSTAL FALLS AND IRON MOUNTAIN...BUT NOW SHOWS BARELY ANY QPF AT CRYSTAL FALLS WITH THIS 06Z RUN. GEM FOR LONGEST TIME WAS MAINLY SOUTH OF MENOMINEE COUNTY WITH HEAVIER QPF...BUT JUST WITH 00Z RUN SHIFTED FARTHER NORTH. ECMWF AND GFS HAVE BEEN MORE OR LESS PEGGING NORTHEAST WI INTO SOUTH CENTRAL UPR MICHIGAN FOR HEAVIER STRIPE OF QPF SINCE 12Z/9 JUNE RUN WITH MAIN CHANGES TYING TO HOW FAR NORTH TO SPREAD LIGHTER QPF. HAVE ISSUED A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK STATEMENT /ESFMQT/ FOR MENOMINEE COUNTY TO ADDRESS THE HEAVY RAIN AND ASSOCIATED UNCERTAINTY. ALSO HIGHLIGHTED POTENTIAL FLOODING THAT COULD OCCUR IF THE HEAVIER RAIN SCENARIO ENDS UP VERIFYING. IN THAT CASE...PROBABLY LOOKING AT AT LEAST 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN 3 HOURS...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE RFC FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE FOR MENONIMEE COUNTY. NEED AT LEAST 50 PERCENT CONFIDENCE TO DO A WATCH...BUT GIVEN THE BACK AND FORTH TRENDS AND AN OVERALL TREND TO BE MORE SUPRESSED WITH THE HEAVIEST QPF OFF THE LATEST GUIANCE...WENT ESF ROUTE FOR NOW. ONE POSSIBLE KEY FOR THE FORECAST MAY BE HOW MUCH RAIN OCCURS OVER SOUTHERN MN THROUGH 18Z TODAY. SEEMS THAT IF THAT THERE HEAVIER RAIN VERIFIES THERE... PROBABLY A BETTER SHOT OF SEEING HEAVY QPF OVER SCNTRL CWA TONIGHT. BUT...THAT IS LOOKING AT THINGS IN A LINEAR FASHION WHICH AT TIMES CAN BE EASY TO DO IN THIS PROFESSION...BUT NOT ALWAYS THE PROPER COURSE OF ACTION. HOPEFULLY DAYSHIFT CAN GET SOME TRENDS TO BETTER SEE IF HEAVY RAIN WILL IMPACT SCNTRL CWA OR WILL IT MISS CWA TO THE SOUTH. DESPITE BEING WITHIN 24 HOURS NOW FM POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN...ESF ALLOWS FOR WIGGLE ROOM TO EITHER STEP INTO A WATCH OR ADVISORY OR GO WITH NOTHING IF HEAVY RAIN AXIS SLIDES TO THE SOUTH. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 513 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 FRIDAY...EXPECT THE RAIN...MAINLY OVER THE SE HALF OF THE CWA...TO END DURING THE MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THE FCST MAINTAINS CONTINUITY BY FAVORING THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER NAM/REGIONAL-GEM/ECMWF COMPARED TO THE FASTER GFS IN TIMING THE END OF THE PCPN. EXPECT SOME CLEARING LATER INTO THE AFTERNOON CENTRAL AND EAST WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. INLAND TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT CLOUDS AND NE WINDS OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S NORTH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. FRI NIGHT AND SAT...SFC AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA. WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SATURDAY WILL PUSH TEMPS TO AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S INLAND. LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL ALLOW LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP KEEPING READINGS IN THE 60S ALONG THE LAKES. SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...A BROAD TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE NW CONUS WITH RIDGING OVER THE SE WILL RESULT IN SW FLOW FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS SUGGEST A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE SRN PLAINS COULD SPREAD SHRA AND POSSIBLY A FEW TSRA INTO THE WRN LAKES. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING/POSITION OF ANY HEAVIER PCPN IS LIMITED...WITH PWATS CLIMBING AOA 1.5 INCH SOME AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE. MON-WED...AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS INTO NRN ONTARIO AND THE MAIN SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE LAKES...EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE EVEN IF ANY WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA IN DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW. BY WED...SHOWER CHANCES MAY INCREASE AS THE GFS/GEFS/ECMWF SUGGEST A MID LEVEL AND SFC TROUGH WILL APPROACH OR MOVE INTO THE REGION. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAIN TO MOVE INTO KSAW AND POSSIBLY KIWD RIGHT AROUND THE END OF THE 06Z TAF TIME...BUT LEFT THAT OUT OF THE FORECAST GIVEN MODEL VARIABILITY AND LIMITED CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 504 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL EJECT ACROSS SOUTHERN WI AND LOWER MI ON FRIDAY...BUT WINDS WILL ONLY BRIEFLY INCREASE /STILL LESS THAN 25KTS/. HIGH PRESSURE FILLS BACK IN AFTER THE LOW EXITS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATER FRIDAY AND THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLA LONG TERM...JLB AVIATION...TITUS MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
505 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 504 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 HEAVY RAIN AND NEED FOR HEADLINES TONIGHT IS MAIN CONCERN. SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES SLIDES EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS THIS MORNING LIFTS ACROSS WI TONIGHT AND OVER LOWER MICHIGAN BY FRIDAY MORNING. WARM FRONT...ESPECIALLY ALOFT...COMES CLOSE TO SOUTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BUT REALLY NEVER MAKES IT INTO THE CWA. THINK THIS STALLED OUT WARM FRONT ALOFT WILL HOLD KEY IN HEAVIEST RAIN STAYING ONLY OVER SOUTHERN MENOMINEE COUNTY OR EVEN JUST TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT LARGE SCALE LIFT TO SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA AS EARLY AS THIS AFTN AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE SPREAD NORTHEAST FM THE PLAINS. ALREADY SEEING EXPANDING SHIELD OF RAIN OVER SOUTHWEST MN AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS OVER SOUTHERN THIRD OF MN. HRRR/RAP/NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS THIS AFTN INDICATE THICKENING MID CLOUDS /H7-H5/ WITH DECENT LIFT IN THAT MOIST LAYER. DRY LOW-LEVELS WILL HOLD OFF LIGHT RAIN FOR THE NORTH CWA...BUT PERSISTENT LIFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST LIGHT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN INTO SOUTHERN CWA AS SHOWN BY LATEST HRRR AND RAP MODELS. BOOSTED SKY COVER AND BROUGHT SCT SHRA OVER MUCH OF SOUTH HALF OF CWA AND EVEN SLIGHT CHANCES TO THE NORTH. KEWEENAW SHOULD STAY DRY ALL DAY...AND PERHAPS ALL THE WAY THROUGH DURATION OF THE SYSTEM INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MOISTURE TRANSPORT RAMPS UP CONSIDERABLY AHEAD OF MAIN SHORTWAVE ARRIVAL BUT THINK MAJORITY OF THE STRONGEST MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL STAY ALONG THE WARM FRONT ALOFT AT H85-H7. LACK OF INSTABILITY ALOFT MAY ALSO ACT TO SHUNT HEAVIER RAIN TO THE SOUTH AS WELL. MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAGNITUDE IS VERY IMPRESSIVE THOUGH AND BELIEVE THERE IS OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTH OF ADVECTION TO NUDGE THE WARM FRONT ALOFT AND MAX WARM AIR ADVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY NORTH ENOUGH TO BRING HEAVIER QPF INTO AT LEAST MENOMINEE COUNTY. THIS WOULD OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE SFC-H85 LOW AND ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF SFC LOW OVER WISCONSIN. 00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM-REGIONAL AND HIGHER RES GUIDANCE FM THE NSSL WRF AND MORE THAN HALF OF THE NCAR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS POINT TO THAT IDEA WITH HEAVIEST QPF AFTER 06Z AND PROBABLY AFT 09Z AND ONLY LASTING TIL AROUND 12Z. GFS REALLY HAS TRENDED THIS WAY WITH ITS LAST FEW RUNS. ON THE FLIP SIDE WOULD BE THE NCEP HIGH RES GUIDANCE...KEEPING MAJORITY OF HEAVIER QPF JUST SOUTH OF MENOMINEE COUNTY AND THE 06Z NAM REALLY TRENDING TOWARD LESS QPF OVER ALL BUT FAR SOUTHERN MENONINEE COUNTY. ALL THAT SAID...MODEL TRENDS WITH NORTH TO SOUTH EXTENT OF LIGHTER RAIN AND ALSO STRIPE OF HEAVIER RAIN HAVE BEEN DIZZYING OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. CASE IN POINT IS THE DPROG/DT OF THE RUN TOTAL QPF FM THE NAM ENDING AT 15Z ON FRIDAY. 18Z RUN ON 10 JUNE SHOWED OVER 2 INCHES AS FAR NW AT CRYSTAL FALLS AND IRON MOUNTAIN...BUT NOW SHOWS BARELY ANY QPF AT CRYSTAL FALLS WITH THIS 06Z RUN. GEM FOR LONGEST TIME WAS MAINLY SOUTH OF MENOMINEE COUNTY WITH HEAVIER QPF...BUT JUST WITH 00Z RUN SHIFTED FARTHER NORTH. ECMWF AND GFS HAVE BEEN MORE OR LESS PEGGING NORTHEAST WI INTO SOUTH CENTRAL UPR MICHIGAN FOR HEAVIER STRIPE OF QPF SINCE 12Z/9 JUNE RUN WITH MAIN CHANGES TYING TO HOW FAR NORTH TO SPREAD LIGHTER QPF. HAVE ISSUED A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK STATEMENT /ESFMQT/ FOR MENOMINEE COUNTY TO ADDRESS THE HEAVY RAIN AND ASSOCIATED UNCERTAINTY. ALSO HIGHLIGHTED POTENTIAL FLOODING THAT COULD OCCUR IF THE HEAVIER RAIN SCENARIO ENDS UP VERIFYING. IN THAT CASE...PROBABLY LOOKING AT AT LEAST 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN 3 HOURS...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE RFC FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE FOR MENONIMEE COUNTY. NEED AT LEAST 50 PERCENT CONFIDENCE TO DO A WATCH...BUT GIVEN THE BACK AND FORTH TRENDS AND AN OVERALL TREND TO BE MORE SUPRESSED WITH THE HEAVIEST QPF OFF THE LATEST GUIANCE...WENT ESF ROUTE FOR NOW. ONE POSSIBLE KEY FOR THE FORECAST MAY BE HOW MUCH RAIN OCCURS OVER SOUTHERN MN THROUGH 18Z TODAY. SEEMS THAT IF THAT THERE HEAVIER RAIN VERIFIES THERE... PROBABLY A BETTER SHOT OF SEEING HEAVY QPF OVER SCNTRL CWA TONIGHT. BUT...THAT IS LOOKING AT THINGS IN A LINEAR FASHION WHICH AT TIMES CAN BE EASY TO DO IN THIS PROFESSION...BUT NOT ALWAYS THE PROPER COURSE OF ACTION. HOPEFULLY DAYSHIFT CAN GET SOME TRENDS TO BETTER SEE IF HEAVY RAIN WILL IMPACT SCNTRL CWA OR WILL IT MISS CWA TO THE SOUTH. DESPITE BEING WITHIN 24 HOURS NOW FM POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN...ESF ALLOWS FOR WIGGLE ROOM TO EITHER STEP INTO A WATCH OR ADVISORY OR GO WITH NOTHING IF HEAVY RAIN AXIS SLIDES TO THE SOUTH. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2015 THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE HEAVY RAIN POISED TO AFFECT THE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL COME FROM A SHORTWAVE EJECTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM A UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. AS THIS WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA TONIGHT...A 1000MB SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND THEN LIFT NORTHEAST INTO IOWA BY 00Z FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY WEAKEN...REACHING SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN BY 12Z FRIDAY AND INTO CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN BY 00Z SATURDAY. AS THIS LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI TO CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TO CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN BY FRIDAY MORNING. AS THESE FEATURES LIFT NORTHEAST...PRECIPITATION WILL FOLLOW IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION UNDER THE RIGHT REAR OF AN UPPER JET RUNNING FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO MAINE. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TO BE TIED TO THE BEST 850-700 AND 700-500MB WARM AIR ADVECTION (FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN...AND ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AND SOUTHERN MENOMINEE COUNTY) AND THE NOSE OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON THE SAME LEVELS. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FGEN BAND SETUP SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN OR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT WITH THIS THIN (20-40MI WIDE) BAND OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH THE WAVE (ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF BLANCA) AND MODELS HAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO NEAR RECORD VALUES AT KGRB THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL BE OVER 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. WITH THE FOCUS OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN BRUSHING THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND THE FGEN BAND LIKELY NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THAT HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION...EXPECT THERE TO BE A FAIRLY QUICK CUTOFF TO THE RAIN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST (AREAS NORTH OF HOUGHTON SHOULD MISS OUT ON THE PRECIP). SOME OF THE 12Z RUNS HAVE STARTED TO FOCUS THE HEAVIEST PRECIP A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIP MAINLY AFFECTING FAR SOUTHERN MENOMINEE COUNTY (MAINLY SOUTH OF STEPHENSON). WITH THE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THAT AREA...DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS ON HOW FAR NORTH THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL. TEND TO AGREE WITH THE SOUTHERLY TREND AND HAVE FOLLOWED THAT IDEA FOR THE FORECAST. CURRENT FORECAST HAS ONE INCH PLUS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM IRON RIVER TO NEWBERRY AND OVER 2 INCHES FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF STEPHENSON. 09Z SREF PROBABILITIES OF 1 AND 2 INCH RAINFALL IN 24 HOURS POINT TOWARDS SIMILAR AREAS AS THE FORECAST...MAINLY FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CWA (ALTHOUGH THE 2IN PROBS ARE FOCUSED FARTHER NORTH). SO THE QUESTION TURNED TO IF ANY HEADLINES WERE NEEDED FOR THE AREA. LOOKING AT THE 3HR AND 6HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE FROM THE RFC...THE SOUTHERN PART OF MENOMINEE COUNTY HAS 1.8IN AND 2.2IN RESPECTIVELY...SO DON/T THINK THE RAIN WILL FALL FAST ENOUGH FOR FLASH FLOODING. STILL THINK THERE WILL BE PONDING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND SOME ISSUES WITH SMALL CREEKS/STREAMS...MORE REFLECTIVE OF A FLOOD WATCH...BUT DIDN/T THINK THE COVERAGE WAS ENOUGH TO HIGHLIGHT THE ENTIRE COUNTY AT THIS POINT (ESPECIALLY WITH THE SOUTHWARD TREND IN THE 12Z MODELS). WILL BE SOMETHING FOR THE UPCOMING SHIFTS TO MONITOR AND POTENTIALLY HIGHLIGHT MORE THAN JUST THE HWO/EHWO. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY DEPART DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH MOST AREAS OUT OF THE RAIN BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW AND LEAD TO A NICE START TO THE WEEKEND. HAVE INTERIOR HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AND COOLER VALUES NEAR THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE WEAK EASTERLY FLOW AIDING LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. ANOTHER WAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND AFFECT THE AREA ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING ABUNDANT MOISTURE SURGING BACK UP INTO THE AREA (PWAT VALUES RISING BACK ABOVE 1.5). WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND IN LINE WITH THE LOCATION OF THE BEST FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE. FOR NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA AND COULD BRING AN OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWER...BUT THE GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP MOISTURE LIMITED FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE RUNNING AT OR ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAIN TO MOVE INTO KSAW AND POSSIBLY KIWD RIGHT AROUND THE END OF THE 06Z TAF TIME...BUT LEFT THAT OUT OF THE FORECAST GIVEN MODEL VARIABILITY AND LIMITED CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 504 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL EJECT ACROSS SOUTHERN WI AND LOWER MI ON FRIDAY...BUT WINDS WILL ONLY BRIEFLY INCREASE /STILL LESS THAN 25KTS/. HIGH PRESSURE FILLS BACK IN AFTER THE LOW EXITS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATER FRIDAY AND THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLA LONG TERM...SRF AVIATION...TITUS MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 LATEST UPDATE... SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS... WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FROM WISCONSIN INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. MEANWHILE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST FROM IOWA TO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. RAIN CHANCES WILL TEMPORARILY DIMINISH OR END FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH OF THE STATE... BUT INCREASE AGAIN FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT COMES BACK NORTH AGAIN. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 TWO THINGS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: THE FIRST WILL BE FOR SCATTERED DISCRETE STRONG TO SVR CELLS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SW CORNER OF LWR MI THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN RECENTLY ACTIVE NARROW WEST-EAST CORRIDOR NEAR THE WARM FRONT. THERE WERE SEVERAL REPORTS OF SVR HAIL/WINDS ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS NRN IL/IN INTO EXTREME SE LWR MI. THIS CORRIDOR IS SHOWN TO DRIFT BACK SLOWLY NORTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HRRR AND NSSL WRF SHOWING CONVECTIVE INITIATION AFTER 18Z SOUTH OF GRR IN THE VAN BUREN/KALMAZOO/CALHOUN COUNTY AREAS WHERE SFC CAPES RISE TO 1000- 2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. THE OTHER THING TO WATCH FOR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING IS ANY CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS MOVING EAST FROM THE ERN/IA/SRN WI/NRN IL AREA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE IMPRESSIVE TODAY WITH 40-60KT SHOWN FOR 0-6KM. THIS SUPPORTS ORGANIZED CONVECTION RIDING EAST ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT INTO SRN LWR MI WITH THE POSSIBILTY OF STRONG DAMAGING WINDS. LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY IN ADDITION TO A CONTINUED SVR WEATHER THREAT RIDING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...A HEAVY RAIN POTNENTIAL DEVELOPS AS 40-50 KT SWLY LLJ DEVELOPS FROM THE QUAD CITIES TOWARD NRN LWR MI WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES. THE SET UP FAVORS HEAVIEST RAIN NEAR AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 10 WHERE OVER 2 INCHES COULD FALL. GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH EXPECTED FARTHER SOUTH. THE SVR WEATHER THREAT FOR FRIDAY IS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR AND MAINLY BEFORE 21Z WHERE INSTABILTY MAY HAVE A CHANCE TO RECOVER BY EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE FROPA. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 THE SUN THROUGH MON TIME FRAME LOOKS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FCST FOR THAT TIME FRAME. SAT NIGHT LOOKS TO CONTINUE THE MAINLY DRY PERIOD THAT WE WILL SEE ON SAT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. UPPER RIDGING WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING OUT...AND IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE BIT TO SATURATE THE AIR MASS ONCE AGAIN. WE DO LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MOVE BACK IN DURING THE DAY ON SUN AND CONTINUE THROUGH MON. WE WILL SEE THE MAIN TROUGH THAT WILL BE AFFECTING THE DESERT SW FROM TODAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND EJECT TO THE NE IN A SOMEWHAT SIMILAR FASHION TO THE WAVE COMING IN LATE TONIGHT AND FRI. ANOTHER GOOD SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN AHEAD OF THE WAVE...AND THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME DECENT INSTABILITY TO BE PRESENT ON SUN. THE WAVE WILL MOVE BY ON MON...AND THE COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH DROPS DOWN ACROSS THE MIDWEST. WE HAVE DRIED THE FCST OUT A BIT FOR THE TUE AND TUE NIGHT TIME FRAME. BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT IN PUSHING THE FRONT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH BY TUE INCREASES OUR THAT THE AREA WILL SEE A DRY DAY. THIS COULD BE ANOTHER SHORT BREAK AS A SOMEWHAT ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AND WILL SEND SHORT WAVES THROUGH THE FLOW. THESE SHORT WAVES COULD TOUCH OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS AS THEY RIDE ALONG THE NEARLY STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINNING AGAIN ON WED. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 THE FCST PERIOD WILL START OUT QUIET WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER OUTSIDE OF SOME STRATOCUMULUS LINGERING ALONG I-94. THE FCST WILL BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVE THEN THIS AFTERNOON AS SHOWER AND STORM CHCS WILL INCREASE. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AND WILL START TO POP SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MID AFTERNOON TOWARD I-94. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WE EXPECT THAT AT LEAST SOME MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT UNDER THE SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS THEY BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD. SOME LOCAL IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER THE HEAVIEST STORMS. THIS WILL BE TOO LOCAL TO MENTION IN THE FCST FOR THE TIME BEING. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 THE MAIN CONCERN OVER LK MI NEXT 48 HOURS IS FREQUENT TSTMS AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF STRONGER SSW FLOW LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY SOUTH OF MUSKEGON OTHERWISE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD LIMIT WAVE HEIGHTS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF MUSKEGON. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 1149 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015 RIVER LEVELS ACROSS THE LOWER PENINSULA ARE RUNNING NEAR TO SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE UPCOMING SYSTEM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY WILL FEATURE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND THUS THERE ARE SOME FLOODING CONCERNS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES AND APPROACHING 2 INCHES FOR THURSDAY-FRIDAY ARE CLIMATOLOGICALLY AT LEAST 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS AREA FOR EARLY-MID JUNE... PERHAPS NEAR RECORD. THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL... AND AT LEAST SHORT DURATION AREAL FLOODING ISSUES WHERE STORMS PERSIST. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS A LOW LEVEL JET INTERSECTING A WARM FRONT PRODUCES CONVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT. A BAND OF OVER 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL APPEARS LIKELY. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR OVER CENTRAL OR NORTHERN MICHIGAN... WHICH WOULD INCLUDE COUNTIES IN OUR NORTHERN CWA AS WELL AS WFO GAYLORD`S AREA. INCREASED SOIL MOISTURE AND RIVER LEVELS AFTER THIS EVENT WILL SET THE BASELINE FOR INCREASED HYDRO CONCERNS INTO NEXT WEEK AS ADDITIONAL WAVES OF PRECIPITATION MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MEADE SHORT TERM...MEADE LONG TERM...NJJ AVIATION...NJJ HYDROLOGY...CAS MARINE...MEADE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1000 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015 .UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015 SFC HIGH THAT WAS CENTERED ACROSS NE MN THIS AFTN HAS SCOURED OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS MOST OF MN...WITH THE EXCEPTION ALONG THE IOWA BORDER WHERE LOW CLDS HAVE HELD THRU THE DAY. REGIONAL RADAR AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A DISTURBANCE MOVING N/NE ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS...AND INTO SE NEBRASKA WHICH WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHEASTERN 1/4 OF MPX CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND THRU SATURDAY MORNING. INITIALLY...THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL MOISTEN UP ONCE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THERE MAYBE A PERIOD OF VIRGA AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES NE INTO FAR SC/SE MN AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT IT SHOULD EVENTUALLY MOISTEN UP. MOST OF THE CAMS HI-RES REFLECTIVITY SIMS PLACE A BAND OF -SHRA DEVELOPING ACROSS IOWA THIS EVENING...AND MOVING IT INTO A FAIRLY BROAD BUT CONCENTRATED AREA FROM NEAR ALBERT LEA...NORTHEAST TOWARD RED WIND AND EAU CLAIRE BY MID/LATE SATURDAY MORNING. BASED ON SEVERAL OF THE CAMS SOLUTIONS AND THE LATEST RAP HAVING A GOOD HANDLE ON THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS KANSAS...WILL INCREASE POPS IN MPX FAR SE CWA BY 12Z...AND MOVING IT INTO WC WI BY MID/LATE MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE FAIRLY FAST...SO MOST OF THE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OUT OF WC WI BY 3 PM. TEMPS WILL REFLECT THE HIGHER PROBABILITY OF CLDS/SHRA IN WC WI WHERE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S. ELSEWHERE...MID TO UPPER 70S WILL BE LIKELY. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015 AT THE START OF THE PERIOD TWO AREAS OF PRECIP WILL BE SPLITTING THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FIRST WILL BE AND AREA OF SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMA AND CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN IA AND WESTERN WI. THE SECOND IS A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS COLD FRONT IS WEAK...SO NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH PRECIPITATION...AND HAVE LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY. GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF CENTRAL MN WAS DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOKING AHEAD...THE SPLIT FLOW THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS FOR MOST OF THE EARLY SUMMER LOOKS TO BECOME MORE PHASED AS THE SUBTROPICAL JET SHIFTS NORTHWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW HEAT TO BUILD OVER THE US...AND BRING THE STORM TRACK OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AND IN TURN MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL HEADING INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW NOT PINNING ANY RISK THRESHOLD OVER A PARTICULAR AREA FOR A PARTICULAR TIME PERIOD...BUT JUST SPEAKING TO THE FACT THAT EITHER INSTABILITY...OR SHEAR HAS BEEN LACKING FOR MOST OF THIS QUIET SEVERE WEATHER SEASON. CONTINUED WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE SINCE THERE WAS NOT A FORECAST PERIOD THAT PARTICULARLY STOOD OUT AS UNUSUAL...AND BLENDED GUIDANCE PERFORMS BEST UNDER THESE REGIMES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 1000 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015 STILL EXPECTING THE EXPANSION OF MVFR CIGS FROM NORTHERN IOWA ACROSS THE TAF AREA OVERNIGHT. THE TIMING OF THE NAM/RAP 0.5KM CONDENSATIONAL PRESSURE DEFICITS...WHICH BRING MVFR CIGS INTO KRWF-KMSP-KRNH-KEAU BETWEEN 9Z AND 15Z SATURDAY. THE TIMING OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW SUIT...WITH HI-RES MODELS INDICATING ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TO EAST CENTRAL MN BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z...AND THEN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO SKIRT KMSP...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY STAYING TO THE EAST AND PRIMARILY AFFECTING KEAU. THE MVFR DECK WILL GRADUALLY ERODE FROM WESTERN INTO CENTRAL MN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT WILL LIKELY PLAGUE WEST CENTRAL WI INTO SATURDAY EVE. WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST AT 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. KMSP... MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY. SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FIELD BETWEEN 15Z AND 20Z...BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 20Z. WINDS FROM 100-130 DEGREES PRIMARILY AT SPEEDS OF 6-10 KTS. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...SLGT CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WINDS E/ENE 5-10 KTS. MON...VFR. WINDS NNW 10 KTS. TUE...VFR. WINDS NE 5-10 KTS. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLT LONG TERM...JRB AVIATION...LS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
635 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015 .UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015 SFC HIGH THAT WAS CENTERED ACROSS NE MN THIS AFTN HAS SCOURED OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS MOST OF MN...WITH THE EXCEPTION ALONG THE IOWA BORDER WHERE LOW CLDS HAVE HELD THRU THE DAY. REGIONAL RADAR AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A DISTURBANCE MOVING N/NE ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS...AND INTO SE NEBRASKA WHICH WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHEASTERN 1/4 OF MPX CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND THRU SATURDAY MORNING. INITIALLY...THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL MOISTEN UP ONCE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THERE MAYBE A PERIOD OF VIRGA AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES NE INTO FAR SC/SE MN AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT IT SHOULD EVENTUALLY MOISTEN UP. MOST OF THE CAMS HI-RES REFLECTIVITY SIMS PLACE A BAND OF -SHRA DEVELOPING ACROSS IOWA THIS EVENING...AND MOVING IT INTO A FAIRLY BROAD BUT CONCENTRATED AREA FROM NEAR ALBERT LEA...NORTHEAST TOWARD RED WIND AND EAU CLAIRE BY MID/LATE SATURDAY MORNING. BASED ON SEVERAL OF THE CAMS SOLUTIONS AND THE LATEST RAP HAVING A GOOD HANDLE ON THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS KANSAS...WILL INCREASE POPS IN MPX FAR SE CWA BY 12Z...AND MOVING IT INTO WC WI BY MID/LATE MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE FAIRLY FAST...SO MOST OF THE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OUT OF WC WI BY 3 PM. TEMPS WILL REFLECT THE HIGHER PROBABILITY OF CLDS/SHRA IN WC WI WHERE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S. ELSEWHERE...MID TO UPPER 70S WILL BE LIKELY. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015 AT THE START OF THE PERIOD TWO AREAS OF PRECIP WILL BE SPLITTING THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FIRST WILL BE AND AREA OF SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMA AND CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN IA AND WESTERN WI. THE SECOND IS A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS COLD FRONT IS WEAK...SO NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH PRECIPITATION...AND HAVE LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY. GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF CENTRAL MN WAS DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOKING AHEAD...THE SPLIT FLOW THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS FOR MOST OF THE EARLY SUMMER LOOKS TO BECOME MORE PHASED AS THE SUBTROPICAL JET SHIFTS NORTHWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW HEAT TO BUILD OVER THE US...AND BRING THE STORM TRACK OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AND IN TURN MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL HEADING INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW NOT PINNING ANY RISK THRESHOLD OVER A PARTICULAR AREA FOR A PARTICULAR TIME PERIOD...BUT JUST SPEAKING TO THE FACT THAT EITHER INSTABILITY...OR SHEAR HAS BEEN LACKING FOR MOST OF THIS QUIET SEVERE WEATHER SEASON. CONTINUED WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE SINCE THERE WAS NOT A FORECAST PERIOD THAT PARTICULARLY STOOD OUT AS UNUSUAL...AND BLENDED GUIDANCE PERFORMS BEST UNDER THESE REGIMES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015 PRIMARY AVIATION ISSUE THIS PERIOD IS THE ANTICIPATED EXPANSION OF MVFR CIGS FROM NORTHERN IOWA ACROSS THE TAF AREA OVERNIGHT. AM PRESENTLY FAVORING THE NAM/RAP 0.5KM CONDENSATIONAL PRESSURE DEFICITS...WHICH BRING MVFR CIGS INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL SITES /KRWF-KMSP-KRNH-KEAU/ BETWEEN 9Z AND 12Z SATURDAY. SHOWER CHANCES ARE ALSO COMING A BIT QUICKER...WITH HI-RES MODELS INDICATING ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TO EAST CENTRAL MN BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z...AND THEN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR NOW...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO GRAZE KMSP AT BEST...WITH THE MAJORITY STAYING TO THE EAST AND AFFECTING KEAU AND KRNH TO A LESSER EXTENT. THE MVFR DECK WILL GRADUALLY ERODE FROM WESTERN INTO CENTRAL MN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT WILL LIKELY PLAGUE EAST CENTRAL MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WI INTO SATURDAY EVE. WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST AT 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. KMSP... MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY...WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE SERN FRINGES OF THE AIRPORT BETWEEN 15Z AND 20Z. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 20Z. WINDS FROM 100-130 DEGREES PRIMARILY AT SPEEDS OF 6-10 KTS. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...SLGT CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WINDS E/ENE 5-10 KTS. MON...VFR. WINDS NNW 10 KTS. TUE...VFR. WINDS NE 5-10 KTS. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLT LONG TERM...JRB AVIATION...LS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
719 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH ON THE SOUTHWARD PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT FROM THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS VERSUS THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK FROM THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS. THE CAMS KEEP THE HEAVIEST RAIN TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT TO A SMALL PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI AND POINTS SOUTHWARD. THE AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN IN OUR FA IS EXPECTED FROM NEAR FAIRMONT TO EAU CLAIRE WHERE TWO TO THREE INCHES IS FORECAST. LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM ALBERT LEA TO AUGUSTA AND THIS WOULD BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A TREND OBSERVED WITH THE OVERNIGHT CAMS WAS FOR A QUICKER DEPARTURE ON THE RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH NOT AS MUCH RAIN TODAY INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. HENCE...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH END TIME FOR SOUTH CENTRAL MN WAS REDUCED TO 00Z WITH GOODHUE AND THE COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL WI ENDING AT 06Z. WITH THE CONFIDENCE HIGH IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL...A FEW COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL MN INCLUDING BROWN...WATONWAN...NICOLLET AND LE SUER WERE REMOVED FROM THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. COMPLICATING MATTERS THIS MORNING ARE TWO MCV`S. ONE IS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WHILE ANOTHER IS OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. THERE MAY BE LITTLE LULL IN THE RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST MCV AS IT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN MN. HOWEVER... THE RAIN SHOULD QUICKLY FILL IN FROM MID MORNING ONWARD AHEAD OF THE SECOND MVC AS THE FORCING REALLY EXPANDS ACROSS IA PER THALER QG. THIS IS WHEN THE HEAVY RAIN WOULD REALLY BEGIN TO TAKE OFF ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MN. AS MENTIONED BEFORE...WITH THE EARLY DEPARTURE ON WITH THE RAIN TONIGHT...POPS WERE DIMINISH MORE QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION... THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND SHEAR OUT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD... WITH THE LARGE SCALE FLOW SUBSEQUENTLY BECOMING ZONAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND ESSENTIALLY REMAINING THAT WAY THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE FORECAST. FORECAST ITEM/S/ OF CONCERN... TODAY/S SYSTEM WILL BE TO OUR EAST ON FRIDAY... WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING PCPN IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. OTHERWISE... MAIN WINDOWS FOR PCPN LOOK TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY THEN AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. MODEL DISCUSSION/PREFERENCES... THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THINGS... BUT DIFFER SOME IN THE DETAILS OF HOW QUICKLY THE CUTOFF LOW SHEARS OUT AND THE EXTENT TO WHICH THE CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH NOSES INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER... THE DIFFERENCES SHOULDN/T HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER IN OUR AREA... WHICH LOOKS TO BE REASONABLY QUIET UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SENSIBLE WEATHER EXPECTATIONS... DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY... WITH CHANCES FOR PCPN RETURNING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. PCPN POSSIBILITIES COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY IF THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION IS CORRECT... BUT OTHERWISE THE NEXT MAIN CHANCE LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY... WITH THE GFS REMAINING LESS PROGRESSIVE AND THERE A BIT SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF. DETAILED DISCUSSION FOR ITEM/S/ OF CONCERN... RETURN FLOW AND BROAD WARM ADVECTION SHOULD HELP TO GET SOME PCPN BACK INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY... ALTHOUGH THE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE IN THE DEGREE TO WHICH INSTABILITY WORKS BACK INTO THE REGION. THE ECMWF ALSO DEVELOPS A MORE SIGNIFICANT SURFACE WAVE WHICH IT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA SUNDAY MORNING. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND SHOWS AN INVERTED TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGGING EAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS POINT... SLIGHTLY PREFER THE GFS SOLUTION WITH THE COMPACT QUICKLY MOVING SURFACE LOW FROM THE ECMWF LOOKING A BIT CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED. ALTHOUGH THAT COULD CERTAINLY WIND UP BEING A POSSIBILITY... DON/T LIKE THE IDEA OF LATCHING ONTO THAT AT THIS POINT. THE GEM OFFERS SOMEWHAT OF A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THOSE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS... AND THE ENSEMBLE SHOWS A FAIR DEGREE OF SPREAD. ALL OF THIS POINTS TOWARD STICKING CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS FORECAST... WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY BE THE CASE AGAIN WITH THE SYSTEM FOR LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF FEATURES CONTINUES TO DIFFER BETWEEN THE GUIDANCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE/UNCERTAINTY... CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH IN THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION... BUT LOW TO MODERATE IN THE TIMING AND SIGNIFICANCE OF PCPN CHANCES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 718 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW MVFR/IFR CEILINGS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT RAIN AND TOTAL COLUMN SATURATION. LAMP GUIDANCE AND RAP 0.5KM CPD/S OFFER CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL OCCUR FOR ALL BUT KSTC AND KAXN...WHICH ARE AT THE NORTH END OF THE RAIN SHIELD. THEREFORE...INSERTED BKN008 FOR KMSP AND KEAU DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE THREAT FOR THUNDER IS REALLY LIMITED AT THE TAF SITES TODAY ALTHOUGH ONE CAN`T RULE OUT A ROGUE STORM...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AT KEAU. KEPT THE MENTION OUT AT THIS POINT. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING WITH A RETURN TO VFR OVERNIGHT. MAINLY NE WINDS TODAY AROUND 10 KNOTS ALONG WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. KMSP...RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS MORNING WITH MVFR CEILINGS BY LATE IN THE MORNING ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A PERIOD OF CEILINGS BELOW 010 FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEREFORE...INSERTED BKN008 FROM 21Z-02Z. THE LOW CEILINGS MAY COME A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST DEPENDING ON HOW THE RAIN DEVELOPS THIS MORNING. INCREASING NE WIND TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 24 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR. WINDS NE 10 KTS. SAT...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA SAT NGT. WINDS SE 10 KTS. SUN...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MNZ078. FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MNZ077-083>085- 091>093. WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WIZ024>028. && $$ SHORT TERM...RAH LONG TERM... AVIATION...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
815 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015 .UPDATE...MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAVE DISSIPATED OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING...BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE RIVER. HI-RES MODELS INDICATE THE SHOWERY ACTIVITY MAY KEEP GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING MAINLY WEST OF I-55. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BEFORE THINGS GET GOING AGAIN MID/LATE MORNING IN THE SOUTH. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WEATHER/POPS OVERNIGHT...BUT OTHER THAN THAT THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. /15/ .LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO IS HELPING TO CHANNEL A DEEP MOIST AIRMASS (PRECIPITABLE WATER ~ TWO INCHES) NORTHWARD INTO THE ARKLAMISS REGION. WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SUBSTANTIAL LOW/MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO ORGANIZE SHOWERS/TSTMS ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE HAS BEEN CONSIDERABLE TODAY. POOR LAPSE RATES HAVE KEPT THE ACTIVITY MOSTLY BELOW STRONG/SEVERE LIMITS...BUT AT LEAST ONE STORM IN RICHLAND PARISH LIKELY BECAME SEVERE AS A RESULT OF MERGING STORMS. OTHERWISE...STORMS THAT ORIENT ALONG WEST TO EAST BOUNDARIES HAVE BEEN FAVORABLE FOR 30 TO 40 MPH WIND GUSTS AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE AS WE GO INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. PER LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE...CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH SUNSET. FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT GREATER INSTABILITY/MOISTURE TO BECOME FIXED OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS AS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE INTENSIFIES AND EXPANDS WESTWARD INTO EASTERN MS. LAPSE RATES WILL STILL BE RATHER POOR AND NON-SUPPORTIVE OF MUCH SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL...BUT SIMILAR LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION ALONG BOUNDARIES RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE RAINFALL COVERAGE...MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR. EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH QUICKLY SATURDAY EVENING. /EC/ SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AS WE GO INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS WILL ALLOW INFLOW OF GULF MOISTURE OVER MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...WHERE PWATS WILL MAX OUT TO AROUND 2.30 INCHES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER MODELS TRY TO SHOW THAT WE MAY GET CUT OFF HEAVY RAINFALL WISE FROM THE COASTAL AREAS. STILL WILL BE LOOKING AT SOME LOCALLY HEAVY EFFICIENT RAIN POTENTIAL FROM SLOW MOVING STORMS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT UPPER RIDGING FROM THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR FROM THE EAST...WHICH WILL PUSH THE HIGHER PWATS WEST OF THE REGION UNTIL THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE WHEN A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. MODELS HAVE SOME TIMING AND DEPTH ISSUES WITH THE SHORT WAVE COMING FROM THE WEST. THE MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE SOME CHANCES OF MOSTLY DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL SHOWS SOME UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY COMING FROM THE PLAINS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WHICH MAY BRING A FEW STRONG STORMS...BUT THATS TOO FAR OUT FOR ANY HWO POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE EXPECT WARM DAYS AND MUGGY NIGHTS WITH SEASONAL HIGHS AND LOWS. ALSO UPPED HIGHS IN THE EAST AROUND 1 DEGREE FOR NEXT WEEK TO COMPENSATE FOR THE BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST US./17/ && .AVIATION...ALL TAF SITES ARE CURRENTLY VFR THIS EVENING WITH A FEW SHOWERS OCCURING ALONG THE RIVER. EXPECT A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CATEGORIES OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS. CEILING SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER 15Z...BUT EXPECT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTH SATURDAY MORNING AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY BRINGING WITH IT OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS./15/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... JACKSON 71 87 73 88 / 40 52 20 41 MERIDIAN 69 89 71 89 / 20 43 16 28 VICKSBURG 72 88 73 88 / 54 52 24 59 HATTIESBURG 72 88 73 89 / 20 52 26 45 NATCHEZ 73 86 72 87 / 44 61 26 60 GREENVILLE 73 88 72 88 / 45 48 28 54 GREENWOOD 72 88 72 89 / 44 44 25 36 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...NONE. LA...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ EC/17/19/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
941 AM MDT THU JUN 11 2015 .UPDATE... LOWERED POPS THROUGH THE DAY AS THE ONLY LIFTING MECHANISM WILL BE A SHORTWAVE EXITING THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA BY 18Z...AND AIRMASS WILL BE SLOWLY DRYING OUT. IN ADDITION...NOT MUCH INSTABILITY TO SPEAK OF...THE SREF SHOWED POSSIBLE 500-1000 J/KG OF SURFACE CAPE W OF KBIL. SOUNDINGS FROM THE RUC LOOKED GENERALLY STABLE FROM KBIL E. WILL ONLY MENTION THUNDER W OF KBIL THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE DRY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING/ZONAL FLOW BUILDS OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WERE IN GOOD SHAPE TODAY...WITH A COOLER DAY EXPECTED THAN YESTERDAY. DID RAISE DEWPOINTS TOWARD ADJMAV WHICH WAS HANDLING THEM WELL THIS MORNING. AREAS IN SE MT MAY HOLD ONTO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE DAY PER RAP SOUNDINGS. ARTHUR && .SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI... FIRST ISSUE ON THIS SHIFT WAS THE ONGOING FLOOD PRODUCTS. ONE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE SHERIDAN FOOTHILLS AND THE OTHER AN ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF CARBON AND STILLWATER COUNTIES. THE LITTLE GOOSE AT BIG HORN HAS RECENTLY DROPPED BELOW FLOOD STAGE. ALTHOUGH THE GOOSE CREEK AT SHERIDAN HAS NOT RESPONDED AS ACUTELY AS RIVER FORECASTS SUGGESTED...IT IS STILL ON THE RISE AT 6.7 FT /FLOOD STAGE 7.5 FT/ AS OF 3 AM THIS MORNING. THERE WAS SOME LINGERING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS WELL. THEREFORE WE FEEL IT IS PRUDENT TO KEEP THIS WARNING GOING AT THIS TIME. WE HAVE NOT HAD ANY FURTHER REPORTS OF FLOODING OR IMPACTS IN WESTERN CARBON OR SOUTHERN STILLWATER COUNTIES. WE BELIEVE ANY IMPACTS HAVE BEEN MINOR. HOWEVER...WILLOW CREEK NEAR BOYD IS RISING ABRUPTLY OVER THE LAST HOUR...SO OTHER SMALLER STREAMS MAY ALSO STILL BE RESPONDING TO THE RAINFALL YET FROM LAST EVENING. THEREFORE...TO BE PRUDENT WE WILL LET THIS ADVISORY RIDE UNTIL WATER LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA CAN BE CHECKED AFTER SUNRISE. RIDGING HAS OCCURRED BEHIND LAST EVENINGS WEATHER SYSTEM AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT BE AS UNSTABLE AS YESTERDAY. WE STILL HAVE SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE HANGING IN PLACE WITH PWATS FROM .65 WEST TO AROUND .80 INCHES IN THE EAST. ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF BILLINGS. FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ALOFT FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO UPPER TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ENTICE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS DISAGREE JUST HOW WET OR DRY THIS FRONT WILL BE...SO ITS NOT CLEAR HOW IT WILL PAN OUT...BUT THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF A WEAK IMPULSE COMING OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE DAY TO AID LIFT ALONG THE FRONT. FOR NOW...KEPT ISOLATED POPS TRANSITIONING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD THE EVENING...WITH SOME CHANCE POPS IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS NEAR THE BIG HORNS AND FURTHER NORTHEAST NEAR THE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BT .LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED... EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH GLOBAL MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL PATTERN OVER THE US AND CANADA. 500MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL USHER IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE TREASURE STATE THIS WEEKEND. AS FAR AS IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS CONCERNED...THERE IS A GENERAL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALMOST EVERY DAY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THIS TIME HARD TO PINPOINT WHICH PARTICULAR DAY MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THAT DAY MAY BE NEXT TUESDAY. GFS IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN THE STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA. LOOKING AT THE CIPS TIME LAGGED ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...THERE HAS BEEN SOME GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY IN BRINGING SOME MODERATE CAPE...ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG TO EXTREME NE WYOMING BY TUESDAY. PW VALUES FROM THE SAME TOOL SHOW VALUES GREATER THAN ONE INCH OVER MUCH OF EASTERN MONTANA...AS WELL. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS PERIOD IN THE COMING DAYS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE PLEASANT INTO NEXT WEEK...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. SINGER && .AVIATION... AREAS OF MVFR CIGS REMAIN NEAR KBIL...KSHR...KMLS AND KBHK AS OF 15Z. THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY. TODAY WILL BE DRIER WITH MUCH LESS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAN ON WEDNESDAY. VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR WEAK THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. JKL && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... TDY FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 078 056/085 056/076 053/072 051/071 054/075 055/081 2/W 00/U 31/B 23/T 23/T 33/T 32/T LVM 081 050/084 046/076 045/073 047/069 048/076 049/081 2/T 02/T 11/B 22/T 22/T 33/T 33/T HDN 079 054/087 056/078 053/074 051/074 054/077 053/083 1/B 00/U 32/T 33/T 23/T 43/T 33/T MLS 075 054/086 057/077 055/075 051/073 054/073 054/077 1/B 00/U 32/T 33/T 23/T 44/T 33/T 4BQ 072 053/085 057/077 053/075 051/073 054/076 054/079 2/W 00/U 32/T 33/T 23/T 54/T 33/T BHK 071 053/084 056/076 052/073 048/072 051/069 050/074 2/W 00/U 42/T 33/T 33/T 44/T 33/T SHR 072 050/082 052/074 050/071 048/071 050/075 050/081 2/W 01/U 22/T 33/T 33/T 43/T 32/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1216 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 ...UPDATED HYDROLOGY AND AVIATION DISCUSSIONS... .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS...HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...THEN DECREASING COVERAGE OF STORMS/SHOWERS TONIGHT. A PARADE OF SHORT WAVES WERE NOTED ON THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH THE REMNANTS OF BLANCA AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM NEBRASKA WEST TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. 4 TO 8 DEG C H7 DEWPOINTS WERE COMMON OVER A LARGE AREA. THE 00Z OAX SOUNDING HAD 1.53 PWAT WITH INSTABILITY AT 3300J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS ERUPTED NEAR THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND ALSO ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. OVERNIGHT THESE STORMS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP AND PER THE RECENT WSR-88D RADAR STRETCHED FROM SOUTHERN MN THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA AND IOWA INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS. ADDITIONAL STORMS WERE LOCATED TO THE WEST OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS WERE TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT SAVE FOR THE 00Z NCEP HRRR WHICH WAS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH...BUT STILL LACKED THE STORMS FARTHER SOUTH MORE INTO KS. THE STORMS IN WESTERN NEBRASKA SHOULD TRACK FARTHER NORTH COMPARED TO THE AREA WITH RAIN THAT FELL OVER THE LAST 12HRS. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THE RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE OF THE JET CONTINUES THROUGH 18Z IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. THE BEST OMEGA IS OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN SHIFTS TOWARD SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TOWARD 18Z...BUT LINGERS IN SOUTHWEST IOWA THROUGH 00Z. THE H7 WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA CONTINUES IN EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING...THEN SHIFTS MORE INTO IOWA THIS AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES OF PWAT. THE LOW LEVEL JET OF 40 TO 50 KTS WHICH HAS AIDED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT CONTINUES THIS MORNING...BUT SHIFTS INTO WESTERN IOWA. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS THIS MORNING AND THEN TREND HIGHER POPS WITH THE DEFORMATION BAND AND ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY LOWERING SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS AFTERNOON...WILL NEED TO WATCH SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/SOUTHWEST IOWA ALONG THE FRONT AS INSTABILITY INCREASES TO 2000-3000 J/KG AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE/ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. DRIER AIR ARRIVES FOR FRIDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH TOWARD SOUTHERN KANSAS. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTH ACROSS KANSAS AND INTO NEBRASKA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL RETURN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SPOTTY STORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE MID 80S. && .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS CONTINUE AT ALL SITES. THINK KLNK/KOMA MAY SEE A BRIEF BREAK THIS AFTERNOON AS DRY SLOT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...BUT OTHERWISE...GUIDANCE INDICATES THOSE CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFR AT KOFK. HAVE INDICATED CEILINGS BREAKING LATE MORNING TOMORROW...BUT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THAT EVOLUTION. WINDS AT KLNK/KOMA MAY BE VARIABLE FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SETTLING TO NORTHEASTERLY...THEN NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY...BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 MORNING FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELED AS RAIN MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING RAINS HIT HARDEST IN A CORRIDOR FROM SEWARD/SALINE COUNTIES THROUGH LANCASTER/CASS/OTOE AND INTO FREMONT/PAGE/MONTGOMERY. THAT CORRIDOR IS ALSO THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS SLIDING OUT OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/SOUTHWEST IOWA BY AROUND 00Z. COVERAGE MAY BE SCATTERED (ESPECIALLY INITIALLY) AND STORMS MAY BE TRANSIENT...BUT HEAVY RAINS WITH STORMS WOULD FALL ON SATURATED SOIL AND COULD QUICKLY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING PROBLEMS. FOR THAT REASON...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/SOUTHWEST IOWA FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ065>068-078- 089>093. IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ079-080-090- 091. && $$ SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY AVIATION...MAYES HYDROLOGY...MAYES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
623 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS...HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...THEN DECREASING COVERAGE OF STORMS/SHOWERS TONIGHT. A PARADE OF SHORT WAVES WERE NOTED ON THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH THE REMNANTS OF BLANCA AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM NEBRASKA WEST TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. 4 TO 8 DEG C H7 DEWPOINTS WERE COMMON OVER A LARGE AREA. THE 00Z OAX SOUNDING HAD 1.53 PWAT WITH INSTABILITY AT 3300J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS ERUPTED NEAR THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND ALSO ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. OVERNIGHT THESE STORMS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP AND PER THE RECENT WSR-88D RADAR STRETCHED FROM SOUTHERN MN THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA AND IOWA INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS. ADDITIONAL STORMS WERE LOCATED TO THE WEST OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS WERE TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT SAVE FOR THE 00Z NCEP HRRR WHICH WAS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH...BUT STILL LACKED THE STORMS FARTHER SOUTH MORE INTO KS. THE STORMS IN WESTERN NEBRASKA SHOULD TRACK FARTHER NORTH COMPARED TO THE AREA WITH RAIN THAT FELL OVER THE LAST 12HRS. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THE RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE OF THE JET CONTINUES THROUGH 18Z IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. THE BEST OMEGA IS OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN SHIFTS TOWARD SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TOWARD 18Z...BUT LINGERS IN SOUTHWEST IOWA THROUGH 00Z. THE H7 WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA CONTINUES IN EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING...THEN SHIFTS MORE INTO IOWA THIS AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES OF PWAT. THE LOW LEVEL JET OF 40 TO 50 KTS WHICH HAS AIDED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT CONTINUES THIS MORNING...BUT SHIFTS INTO WESTERN IOWA. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS THIS MORNING AND THEN TREND HIGHER POPS WITH THE DEFORMATION BAND AND ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY LOWERING SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS AFTERNOON...WILL NEED TO WATCH SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/SOUTHWEST IOWA ALONG THE FRONT AS INSTABILITY INCREASES TO 2000-3000 J/KG AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE/ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. DRIER AIR ARRIVES FOR FRIDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH TOWARD SOUTHERN KANSAS. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTH ACROSS KANSAS AND INTO NEBRASKA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL RETURN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SPOTTY STORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE MID 80S. && .AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST DURING THE MORNING ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA. THUNDER IS MOST LIKELY AT KOMA AND KLNK THROUGH ABOUT 15Z...WHILE KOFK SHOULD JUST SEE SHOWERS. IFR CIGS WILL ACCOMPANY THE RAIN THIS MORNING...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY 18Z WHEN CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR NEAR FL040. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE MORE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z NEAR KLNK AND KOMA...BUT THOSE SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF TAF SITES. OTHERWISE LIGHT EAST OR SOUTHEAST WINDS EARLY SHOULD TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20KT BY 18Z...THEN SETTLE BACK TO LESS THAN 10K AFTER 00Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS MVFR CIGS/VSBYS COULD DEVELOP AFTER 10Z AT ALL SITES. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 WILL LET THE CURRENT FFA REMAIN INTO EFFECT THIS MORNING WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IN SEVERAL SPOTS AND MATCHED UP WITH FSD/DMX WITH OUR IOWA COUNTIES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED THIS MORNING. CONVECTION CONTINUES...HOWEVER THE BETTER MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL RATES SHIFTING INTO IOWA. RAINFALL RATES ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WITH THIS DEVELOPING AREA OF STORMS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE IS ABUNDANT MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH CONTINUED SUPPORT FOR NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON FOR DIFFERENT PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE STORMS WILL EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ050>053- 065>068-078-088>093. IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR IAZ043-055- 056-069-079-080-090-091. && $$ SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY AVIATION...DERGAN HYDROLOGY...ZAPOTOCNY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
400 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS...HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...THEN DECREASING COVERAGE OF STORMS/SHOWERS TONIGHT. A PARADE OF SHORT WAVES WERE NOTED ON THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH THE REMNANTS OF BLANCA AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM NEBRASKA WEST TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. 4 TO 8 DEG C H7 DEWPOINTS WERE COMMON OVER A LARGE AREA. THE 00Z OAX SOUNDING HAD 1.53 PWAT WITH INSTABILITY AT 3300J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS ERUPTED NEAR THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND ALSO ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. OVERNIGHT THESE STORMS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP AND PER THE RECENT WSR-88D RADAR STRETCHED FROM SOUTHERN MN THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA AND IOWA INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS. ADDITIONAL STORMS WERE LOCATED TO THE WEST OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS WERE TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT SAVE FOR THE 00Z NCEP HRRR WHICH WAS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH...BUT STILL LACKED THE STORMS FARTHER SOUTH MORE INTO KS. THE STORMS IN WESTERN NEBRASKA SHOULD TRACK FARTHER NORTH COMPARED TO THE AREA WITH RAIN THAT FELL OVER THE LAST 12HRS. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THE RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE OF THE JET CONTINUES THROUGH 18Z IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. THE BEST OMEGA IS OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN SHIFTS TOWARD SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TOWARD 18Z...BUT LINGERS IN SOUTHWEST IOWA THROUGH 00Z. THE H7 WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA CONTINUES IN EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING...THEN SHIFTS MORE INTO IOWA THIS AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES OF PWAT. THE LOW LEVEL JET OF 40 TO 50 KTS WHICH HAS AIDED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT CONTINUES THIS MORNING...BUT SHIFTS INTO WESTERN IOWA. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS THIS MORNING AND THEN TREND HIGHER POPS WITH THE DEFORMATION BAND AND ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY LOWERING SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS AFTERNOON...WILL NEED TO WATCH SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/SOUTHWEST IOWA ALONG THE FRONT AS INSTABILITY INCREASES TO 2000-3000 J/KG AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE/ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. DRIER AIR ARRIVES FOR FRIDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH TOWARD SOUTHERN KANSAS. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTH ACROSS KANSAS AND INTO NEBRASKA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL RETURN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SPOTTY STORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE MID 80S. && .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 RADAR MOSAIC REVEALING WIDESPREAD TSRA ACTIVITY CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN NEB WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY OVER N-CNTRL KS. EXPECTED PCPN ACTIVITY/OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS THRU THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOLLOWED BY CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR WITH ONSET OF FRONTAL PASSAGE/WIND SHIFT TO THE NW. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 WILL LET THE CURRENT FFA REMAIN INTO EFFECT THIS MORNING WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IN SEVERAL SPOTS AND MATCHED UP WITH FSD/DMX WITH OUR IOWA COUNTIES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED THIS MORNING. CONVECTION CONTINUES...HOWEVER THE BETTER MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL RATES SHIFTING INTO IOWA. RAINFALL RATES ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WITH THIS DEVELOPING AREA OF STORMS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE IS ABUNDANT MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH CONTINUED SUPPORT FOR NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON FOR DIFFERENT PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE STORMS WILL EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ050>053- 065>068-078-088>093. IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR IAZ043-055- 056-069-079-080-090-091. && $$ SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY AVIATION...DEE HYDROLOGY...ZAPOTOCNY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1223 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015 TONIGHT A WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON...PROVIDING A POINT OF INITIATION FOR FOR A FEW STORMS. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FAIRLY STEEP AT 8-9 C/KM IN SE NEBRASKA. DEWPOINTS HAVE ALSO SURGED INTO THE MID 60S IN AN AREA WITH 2000 TO 3500 J/KG OF POTENTIAL ENERGY...HOWEVER SHEAR IS STILL VERY WEAK AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION FOR ANY SEVERE DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA NEAR THAT BOUNDARY. TONIGHT A SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO OUR CWA. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE VERY POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ARE STILL ANTICIPATED LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY HOURS OF THURSDAY MORNING...WHICH IS NEAR THE NAEFS 99.5 CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS COULD LEAD TO RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TONIGHT. A FEW SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT AS WELL WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND AMPLE MOISTURE IN REGION. 850 WINDS WILL ALSO INTENSIFY TO AROUND 50KTS IN OUR SOUTH. THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STORMS LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SURFACE LOW/UPPER TROUGH THAT IS ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT 12Z THURSDAY WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. WIDESPREAD AREA OF PRECIP MOVING THROUGH THE MID MISSOURI RIVER AREA IN THE MORNING. THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP CHANCES IN EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA BY LATE MORNING EARLY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH DEFORMATION BAND SHOWERS ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TRAILING ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW WILL STILL BE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA THROUGH PEAK HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON... WITH VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS NOTED. THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY LIGHT UP BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN IOWA THROUGH SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WITH AN ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THAT WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MEANWHILE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL LIKELY FILL IN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH EVENING...THEN ENDING ALTOGETHER BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ON FRIDAY COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE FROM THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY AND COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. THE NEXT TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO AFFECT THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTURE SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASES ONCE AGAIN. WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY OR CLOUDY SKIES ON SATURDAY...TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN BE COOLER IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING INTO THE 40 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015 THERE WILL JUST ABOUT A DAILY CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INITIALLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL THROUGH TIME. A WEAK FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION APPEARS TO STALL AT LEAST EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT MAY GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH OR DISSIPATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO GRADUALLY WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL REACHING THE MID 80S BY WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 RADAR MOSAIC REVEALING WIDESPREAD TSRA ACTIVITY CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN NEB WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY OVER N-CNTRL KS. EXPECTED PCPN ACTIVITY/OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS THRU THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOLLOWED BY CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR WITH ONSET OF FRONTAL PASSAGE/WIND SHIFT TO THE NW. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015 WITH AMPLE ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTURE ON HAND FOR CONVECTION TO TAP INTO...SITUATION APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP13 HAVE BEEN FOCUSING BRUNT OF PCPN ACTIVITY WITHIN THE CWA WHERE PCPN EFFICIENCY IS QUITE FAVORABLE WITH DEEP WARM CLOUD LYR DEPTH/PWS APPROACHING 2"/STRONG LLVL MOISTURE FEED. WITH LLVL SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING...UPPER LLVL STEERING WILL BE OFFSET LEADING TO CORFIDI VECTORS OF LESS THAN 10KTS. GIVEN THIS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THRU THURSDAY MORNING. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ050>053- 065>068-078-088>093. IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ069-079- 080-090-091. && $$ SHORT TERM...GROSS/DEWALD LONG TERM...DEWALD AVIATION...DEE HYDROLOGY...DEE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1128 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015 TONIGHT A WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON...PROVIDING A POINT OF INITIATION FOR FOR A FEW STORMS. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FAIRLY STEEP AT 8-9 C/KM IN SE NEBRASKA. DEWPOINTS HAVE ALSO SURGED INTO THE MID 60S IN AN AREA WITH 2000 TO 3500 J/KG OF POTENTIAL ENERGY...HOWEVER SHEAR IS STILL VERY WEAK AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION FOR ANY SEVERE DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA NEAR THAT BOUNDARY. TONIGHT A SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO OUR CWA. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE VERY POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ARE STILL ANTICIPATED LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY HOURS OF THURSDAY MORNING...WHICH IS NEAR THE NAEFS 99.5 CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS COULD LEAD TO RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TONIGHT. A FEW SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT AS WELL WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND AMPLE MOISTURE IN REGION. 850 WINDS WILL ALSO INTENSIFY TO AROUND 50KTS IN OUR SOUTH. THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STORMS LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SURFACE LOW/UPPER TROUGH THAT IS ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT 12Z THURSDAY WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. WIDESPREAD AREA OF PRECIP MOVING THROUGH THE MID MISSOURI RIVER AREA IN THE MORNING. THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP CHANCES IN EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA BY LATE MORNING EARLY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH DEFORMATION BAND SHOWERS ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TRAILING ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW WILL STILL BE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA THROUGH PEAK HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON... WITH VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS NOTED. THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY LIGHT UP BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN IOWA THROUGH SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WITH AN ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THAT WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MEANWHILE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL LIKELY FILL IN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH EVENING...THEN ENDING ALTOGETHER BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ON FRIDAY COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE FROM THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY AND COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. THE NEXT TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO AFFECT THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTURE SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASES ONCE AGAIN. WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY OR CLOUDY SKIES ON SATURDAY...TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN BE COOLER IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING INTO THE 40 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015 THERE WILL JUST ABOUT A DAILY CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INITIALLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL THROUGH TIME. A WEAK FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION APPEARS TO STALL AT LEAST EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT MAY GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH OR DISSIPATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO GRADUALLY WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL REACHING THE MID 80S BY WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 710 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015 REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING LINE OF TSRA QUICKLY EXPANDING INTO ERN NEB FROM THE WEST AND JUST A MATTER OF TIME NOW BEFORE REACHING THE TAF SITES. EXPECT PROLONG PERIOD OF PCPN ACTIVITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER TSRA. THERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. AS OF NOW THE PROBABILITY OF SEVERE TSRA LOOK REMOTE. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR THEN THURSDAY MORNING UPON FRONTAL PASSAGE/WIND SHIFT TO THE NW AS DRIER AIR MASS FILTERS IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015 WITH AMPLE ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTURE ON HAND FOR CONVECTION TO TAP INTO...SITUATION APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP13 HAVE BEEN FOCUSING BRUNT OF PCPN ACTIVITY WITHIN THE CWA WHERE PCPN EFFICIENCY IS QUITE FAVORABLE WITH DEEP WARM CLOUD LYR DEPTH/PWS APPROACHING 2"/STRONG LLVL MOISTURE FEED. WITH LLVL SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING...UPPER LLVL STEERING WILL BE OFFSET LEADING TO CORFIDI VECTORS OF LESS THAN 10KTS. GIVEN THIS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THRU THURSDAY MORNING. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR NEZ050>053- 065>068-078-088>093. IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR IAZ069-079-080- 090-091. && $$ SHORT TERM...GROSS/DEWALD LONG TERM...DEWALD AVIATION...DEE HYDROLOGY...DEE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ELKO NV
303 PM PDT THU JUN 11 2015 .SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR EASTERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN POPPING UP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. EXPECTING WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TOMORROW AND OVER THE WEEKEND. && .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN FEATURES A TROF OVER UT/AZ WITH THE RIDGE AXIS BISECTING OREGON AND IDAHO. THE PWS CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE LKN CWA...AND CLIMATE-WISE ARE RANGING 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE FETCH OF MOISTURE ANCHORED OVER EASTERN NV AND UTAH. THE OBSERVED DEWPOINTS FOR WESTERN NV HAVE PLUMMETED TODAY...AND EXPECTING THAT DRY AIR TO PUSH EASTWARD...SHUTTING DOWN THE CONVECTION LATER TONIGHT. THE HRRR HAS THE CONVECTION...TAPERING OFF AFTER 3Z. THE GFS AND NAM ARE PRETTY TAME FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...SO ADJUSTED POPS DOWN THIS PACKAGE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...JUST ANTICIPATING A WARMING TREND. .LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. LONG RANGE DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUPPORT A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. AFTER A QUITE SATURDAY NIGHT...INSTABILITY INCREASES SOME ESPECIALLY FROM THE NEVADA CONVERGENCE ZONE EASTWARD WHERE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY RIDING ALONG THE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL ENHANCE INSTABILITY OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEVADA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOLLOWING THIS WEAK SHORT WAVE...A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF WARM DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NEAR NORMAL NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES DRIER AIR SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH HUMBOLDT...EXTREME WESTERN ELKO AND NORTHERN LANDER/EUREKA COUNTIES. SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS AREA CONVECTION HAS INCREASED WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS WEST OF WELLS AND CLOVER VALLEY AND IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST LANDER AND NORTHWEST NYE COUNTIES ATTM. LOCALLY BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST CORES INTO THIS EVENING. KELY/KTPH AND POSSIBLY KEKO WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS ACTIVITY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE STRONGEST CORES. && .FIRE WEATHER...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. EXPECTING DRIER CONDITIONS TOMORROW. A WARMING TREND IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...ALL THE WHILE THE HAINES VALUES ARE INCREASING ACROSS SILVER STATE. && .LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 97/89/89
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
753 AM PDT THU JUN 11 2015 .SYNOPSIS...LINGERING MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A DRY...WESTERLY FLOW FROM SUNDAY ONWARD WILL BRING EXPECTED HOT AND DRY JUNE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA INTO NEXT WEEK. && .UPDATE...MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HIGH- RES GUIDANCE. MAIN CHANGES INCLUDED REDUCING POPS FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING AND INCREASING POPS THIS EVENING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF DEATH VALLEY NATIONAL PARK WHERE A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY SINK SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT SHOWERS/STORMS WILL IMPACT THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY...HOWEVER THE LATEST HRRR DOES INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR OUTFLOW WINDS TO MOVE THROUGH FROM THE NORTH AROUND SUNSET. THIS WOULD MAINLY BE AN IMPACT TO AVIATION...AS THE STRENGTH WOULD LIKELY BE UNDER 30-35 MPH. && .AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...VERY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...GENERALLY UNDER 6 KTS...LIKELY FAVORING AN EASTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY IN THE BEATTY AND MORMON MESA CORRIDORS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BRING GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO THE TERMINAL...MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 01Z-06Z. OUTSIDE OF THESE OUTFLOW WINDS...WINDS SHOULD TURN TO A TYPICAL SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT. FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE VARIABLE 5-10 KTS MAINLY FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIURNAL TERRAIN DRIVEN PATTERNS TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF LAS VEGAS THAT COULD BRING GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE AROUND KBIH AND KTPH. && .PREV DISCUSSION... 215 AM PDT THU JUN 11 2015 .SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AT 1 AM...THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF MOHAVE COUNTY REMAINED UNDER THE GUN AS MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS ROLLED THROUGH. A FEW RAIN GAGES IN THE AREA REPORTED AN INCH OF RAIN OR BETTER WHERE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION FELL. ELSEWHERE, THINGS HAVE QUIETED DOWN A BIT ALTHOUGH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION ARE NUMEROUS AND TRIGGERING A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS AS FAR WEST AS BOULDER CITY AND HENDERSON. MODELS TAKE THE LOW DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND SATELLITE CONFIRMS IT AS A COUNTER CLOCKWISE SPIN IS APPARENT IN IR IMAGERY. THE MAIN LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY BUT TROUGHING WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY ALLOWING UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE EACH DAY AS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS FORM IN A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. WITH LESS MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY WARM HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. .LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING ZONAL...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA TO THE EAST. WESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP TO MIX OUT THE REMAINING MOISTURE FROM BLANCA...SIGNALING A RETURN TO BENIGN WEATHER AND SETTING US UP FOR A RAPID WARM UP EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE ON A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED ON THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST EMITTING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN DURING THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS WELL HELP INCREASE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT ALL LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT...PROMOTING GOOD MIXING WHICH WILL FURTHER DRY OUT ANY LINGERING MOISTURE AND BUMP AFTERNOON HIGHS UP A FEW MORE DEGREES. AT THIS TIME...AFTERNOON HIGHS LOOK TO CONSISTENTLY RUN 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-JUNE NEXT WEEK. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION...WOLCOTT SHORT TERM...SALMEN LONG TERM...PULLIN FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
940 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 921 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015 MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF NORTH DAKOTA WITH INCREASING BULK SHEAR MOVING IN FROM EASTERN MONTANA. FORECAST CONVECTION FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA NEVER MATERIALIZED EXCEPT FOR ONE STRONGER CELL OVER DIVIDE COUNTY. HIRES MODELS HAD A HARD TIME WITH THIS CONVECTION AND ARE STILL TRYING TO FIRE CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND TRACKING IT ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ATMOSPHERE HERE IS STILL SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AND CAN NOT DISCOUNT A SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM. BUT HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND JUST KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL. THERE IS STILL A RIGH MOVING SUPERCELLS OVER SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN THAT COULD MOVE INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS EVENING IF IT CONTINUES TO HOLD TOGETHER. HIRES MODEL DO SEEM TO BE CAPTURING THE CONVECTION THAT FIRED OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN MONTANA EARLY THIS EVENING. CONVECTION IS STILL HOLDING TOGETHER AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA. STILL MUCAPES ABOVE 1000J/KG OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WITH BULK SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS MOVING INTO THIS SAME AREA. WITH STABILIZING LOWER ATMOSPHERE THIS EVENING...AND A STRONGER CAP AS YOU MOVE INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL...THINK THE RISK OF SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE WANING AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUS WILL REMOVE THE SEVERE WORDING BUT WILL KEEP SOME HIGHER POPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015 UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND EASTERN MONTANA BUT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE SLOWER TO STEEPEN. BISMARCK 00 UTC 13JUN SOUNDING SHOWS A PRETTY GOOD CAP BETWEEN 850 AND 700MB WITH QUITE DRY AIR ABOVE THE CAP. CURRENT CONVECTION IS VERY ISOLATED ALONG THE PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH AND HIRES MODELS HAVE BEEN OVERDOING THE CONVECTION EXTENDING SOUTH INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND BACK WEST INTO MONTANA. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS LOWER THIS EVENING BASED ON LATEST RADAR. STILL KEPT A MENTION OF SEVERE THIS EVENING WEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL DUE TO THE VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND BULK SHEAR WHICH WILL BE INCREASING THIS EVENING WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. IF CONVECTION FIRES OVER EASTERN MONTANA THIS EVENING COULD STILL SEE SOME STRONGER STORMS MOVE INTO THE FAR WEST LATE THIS EVENING. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015 MAIN HIGHLIGHT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. LATEST SUITE OF SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH THE SURFACE ANALYSIS PINPOINTS THE COLD FRONT FROM NEAR CYBU/NIPAWIN SASKATCHEWAN TO CYQR/REGINA SASKATCHEWAN...STRETCHING SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA...JUST WEST OF GLASGOW. A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR WOLF POINT TO JORDAN MONTANA. LINE OF CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING SOUTH INTO CROSBY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH A PATCHY CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH DEWPOINTS TO NEAR 60F COMMON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LACKING...BUT SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE OF 2000 J/KG WITH 30KT TO 35KT 0-6KM SHEAR ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. THE LATEST HRRR MAINTAINS ISOLATED CONVECTION INITIATING BETWEEN 21Z AND 22Z IN THE NORTHWEST WITH SOME SEMBLANCE OF A LINE DEVELOPING FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE PRE FRONTAL TROUGH BY 23Z. WOULD APPEAR THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AS IT MOVES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WITH CAPE/SHEAR ALIGNMENT AND COLD FRONTAL/PRE TROUGH TIMING LATE THIS AFTERNOON...COULD SEE A COUPLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING WIDESPREAD AT THIS TIME. THE GFS IS ABOUT 3 TO 5 HOURS FASTER THAN THE NAM12 SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER DESPITE TIMING DIFFERENCES...THE MAIN MESSAGE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT SATURDAY WITH A FEW POSSIBLY SEVERE...REMAINS ON TRACK. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015 ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY EVENING ALONG A SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT (SEE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION ABOVE). THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES GENERATING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION ABOVE...A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF MY CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST. A FEW SEVERE STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN 1-2K J/KG OF MUCAPE AND 40KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS MY SOUTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS AND ENERGY ALOFT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. INSTABILITY DECREASES AFTER 06Z SUNDAY MORNING AND SO WILL THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. LULL IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO NORTH DAKOTA. THEREAFTER A SERIES OF EMBEDDED WAVES MOVING EAST THROUGH THE REGION COUPLED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET ALOFT WILL SEE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LOW FOR MID-JUNE AS THE JET ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A COOLER AIRMASS TO NUDGE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK MAINLY IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 921 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015 VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER KISN BY 03Z AND SLOWLY PROPAGATE INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL VEER FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A VCTS IN ALL TERMINALS. KJMS WILL NOT HAVE A THREAT UNTIL AFTER 18Z SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD...RATHER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT TIMES. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...TWH SHORT TERM...KS LONG TERM...NH AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
632 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015 UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND EASTERN MONTANA BUT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE SLOWER TO STEEPEN. BISMARCK 00 UTC 13JUN SOUNDING SHOWS A PRETTY GOOD CAP BETWEEN 850 AND 700MB WITH QUITE DRY AIR ABOVE THE CAP. CURRENT CONVECTION IS VERY ISOLATED ALONG THE PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH AND HIRES MODELS HAVE BEEN OVERDOING THE CONVECTION EXTENDING SOUTH INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND BACK WEST INTO MONTANA. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS LOWER THIS EVENING BASED ON LATEST RADAR. STILL KEPT A MENTION OF SEVERE THIS EVENING WEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL DUE TO THE VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND BULK SHEAR WHICH WILL BE INCREASING THIS EVENING WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. IF CONVECTION FIRES OVER EASTERN MONTANA THIS EVENING COULD STILL SEE SOME STRONGER STORMS MOVE INTO THE FAR WEST LATE THIS EVENING. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015 MAIN HIGHLIGHT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. LATEST SUITE OF SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH THE SURFACE ANALYSIS PINPOINTS THE COLD FRONT FROM NEAR CYBU/NIPAWIN SASKATCHEWAN TO CYQR/REGINA SASKATCHEWAN...STRETCHING SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA...JUST WEST OF GLASGOW. A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR WOLF POINT TO JORDAN MONTANA. LINE OF CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING SOUTH INTO CROSBY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH A PATCHY CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH DEWPOINTS TO NEAR 60F COMMON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LACKING...BUT SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE OF 2000 J/KG WITH 30KT TO 35KT 0-6KM SHEAR ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. THE LATEST HRRR MAINTAINS ISOLATED CONVECTION INITIATING BETWEEN 21Z AND 22Z IN THE NORTHWEST WITH SOME SEMBLANCE OF A LINE DEVELOPING FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE PRE FRONTAL TROUGH BY 23Z. WOULD APPEAR THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AS IT MOVES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WITH CAPE/SHEAR ALIGNMENT AND COLD FRONTAL/PRE TROUGH TIMING LATE THIS AFTERNOON...COULD SEE A COUPLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING WIDESPREAD AT THIS TIME. THE GFS IS ABOUT 3 TO 5 HOURS FASTER THAN THE NAM12 SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER DESPITE TIMING DIFFERENCES...THE MAIN MESSAGE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT SATURDAY WITH A FEW POSSIBLY SEVERE...REMAINS ON TRACK. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015 ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY EVENING ALONG A SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT (SEE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION ABOVE). THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES GENERATING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION ABOVE...A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF MY CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST. A FEW SEVERE STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN 1-2K J/KG OF MUCAPE AND 40KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS MY SOUTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS AND ENERGY ALOFT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. INSTABILITY DECREASES AFTER 06Z SUNDAY MORNING AND SO WILL THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. LULL IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO NORTH DAKOTA. THEREAFTER A SERIES OF EMBEDDED WAVES MOVING EAST THROUGH THE REGION COUPLED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET ALOFT WILL SEE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LOW FOR MID-JUNE AS THE JET ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A COOLER AIRMASS TO NUDGE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK MAINLY IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015 VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER KISN BY 03Z AND SLOWLY PROPAGATE INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL VEER FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A VCTS IN ALL TERMINALS. KJMS WILL NOT HAVE A THREAT UNTIL AFTER 18Z SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD...RATHER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT TIMES. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...TWH SHORT TERM...KS LONG TERM...NH AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1253 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 SPC MESO PAGE SHOWS AROUND 500 J/KG MU CAPE AT 17Z FAR NRN RRV INTO SE MANITOBA. HRRR HAS SEVERAL CAPE AS WELL DEVELOPING INTO ECNTRL ND. SOME ENCHANCED CU DEVELOPING IN THIS GENERAL REGION OF HIGHER CAPE. SO ISOLATED T-STORM IDEA SEEMS REASONABLE AND KEPT. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 PRECIP CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST HEADACHE FOR THE PERIOD. WV LOOP SHOWS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO OUR SOUTH...AND MODELS ALL HAVE THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO SOUTHERN MN AND IA TODAY. THE MAIN SFC LOW AND FRONTS WILL BE WELL TO OUR SOUTH...WITH ONLY MAYBE THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES GETTING SWIPED BY THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM. MANY OF THE MODELS BREAK OUT SPOTTY SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CWA ALSO. THERE IS NOT MUCH TO HANG ON AT THE SFC...WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS. HOWEVER...THERE IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM IN CANADA...WHICH SHOULD IMPACT OUR CWA LATER TODAY. EVEN PEAK HEATING WITH HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON GIVES AROUND 500 J/KG MAX...SO THINK THAT ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE NON SEVERE IF IT THUNDERS AT ALL. STILL ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SOME ISOLATED POPS IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DIURNAL AND DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY QUIET AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE EXITS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DECREASING CLOUDS WE SHOULD DROP DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. FRIDAY WILL ALSO BE VERY TRANQUIL WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDING OVER THE REGION. SOUTH WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...AND WITH GOOD MIXING AND SUNSHINE TEMPS SHOULD GET CLOSE TO THE 80 MARK AT LEAST IN THE WESTERN CWA. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...FLOW STARTS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE HARD TO PICK OUT AT THIS POINT...BUT MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT ON BRINGING THE SFC TROUGH FROM WESTERN ND INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE ON SATURDAY...THEN SLOWLY APPROACHING THE WESTERN CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE SOME PRECIP ACTIVITY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN EXACTLY HOW FAST THE PRECIP MOVES INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AND HOW STRONG CONVECTION WILL BE. FOR NOW STARTED RAMPING UP POPS FOR THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPS THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES. SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT BRINGING IN A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH SOME THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND COOLER TEMPS BEHIND IT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. MONDAY RIGHT NOW LOOKS MAINLY DRY UNDER SFC HIGH PRESSURE...ALTHOUGH NOT TERRIBLY CONFIDENT IN ANY PERIOD GIVEN THE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. FOR EXAMPLE...THE GEM/GFS/ECMWF ALL INDICATE A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DURING THE TUE/WED PERIOD OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT ALL DIFFER ON TIMING/PLACEMENT. THE GENERAL PATTERN DOES SUGGEST INTERMITTENT CHANCES FOR CONVECTION NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE STRONGER MID/UPPER FLOW OVER THE REGION...WHICH IS TYPICAL FOR MID JUNE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WILL BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHERLY LATER IN THE PERIOD AS THE RIDGE RETREATS EAST. ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY STABLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND ANY CONVECTION WOULD BE VERY ISOLD SO WILL HOLD OFF ANY MENTION ATTM. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...RIDDLE SHORT TERM...JR LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI AVIATION...HOPKINS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1030 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1028 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 CLEARING AS PROGRESSED SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. ANY SHOWERS HAVE EXITED FAR SE ND/WCNTRL MN AND REMOVED WEATHER MENTION IN THAT AREA REST OF THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN. WEAK SHORT WAVE UPSTREAM AND SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN AREAS FROM NORTH OF BRANDON MANITOBA TO YORKTON IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHEAST. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH HEATING OF THE DAY TO GENERATE ISOLD TRW- THAT IS PROGGED BY HRRR. KEPT 20 POPS MID AFTN TO EARLY EVE AS PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. DID UP HIGHS TODAY SOME AS HRRR PEGS LOWER 80S IN THE CENTRAL RRV AND WITH TEMPS WARMING FAST WITH MUCH MORE SUN TODAY IT LOOKS GOOD. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 PRECIP CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST HEADACHE FOR THE PERIOD. WV LOOP SHOWS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO OUR SOUTH...AND MODELS ALL HAVE THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO SOUTHERN MN AND IA TODAY. THE MAIN SFC LOW AND FRONTS WILL BE WELL TO OUR SOUTH...WITH ONLY MAYBE THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES GETTING SWIPED BY THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM. MANY OF THE MODELS BREAK OUT SPOTTY SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CWA ALSO. THERE IS NOT MUCH TO HANG ON AT THE SFC...WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS. HOWEVER...THERE IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM IN CANADA...WHICH SHOULD IMPACT OUR CWA LATER TODAY. EVEN PEAK HEATING WITH HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON GIVES AROUND 500 J/KG MAX...SO THINK THAT ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE NON SEVERE IF IT THUNDERS AT ALL. STILL ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SOME ISOLATED POPS IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DIURNAL AND DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY QUIET AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE EXITS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DECREASING CLOUDS WE SHOULD DROP DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. FRIDAY WILL ALSO BE VERY TRANQUIL WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDING OVER THE REGION. SOUTH WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...AND WITH GOOD MIXING AND SUNSHINE TEMPS SHOULD GET CLOSE TO THE 80 MARK AT LEAST IN THE WESTERN CWA. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...FLOW STARTS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE HARD TO PICK OUT AT THIS POINT...BUT MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT ON BRINGING THE SFC TROUGH FROM WESTERN ND INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE ON SATURDAY...THEN SLOWLY APPROACHING THE WESTERN CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE SOME PRECIP ACTIVITY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN EXACTLY HOW FAST THE PRECIP MOVES INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AND HOW STRONG CONVECTION WILL BE. FOR NOW STARTED RAMPING UP POPS FOR THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPS THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES. SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT BRINGING IN A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH SOME THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND COOLER TEMPS BEHIND IT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. MONDAY RIGHT NOW LOOKS MAINLY DRY UNDER SFC HIGH PRESSURE...ALTHOUGH NOT TERRIBLY CONFIDENT IN ANY PERIOD GIVEN THE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. FOR EXAMPLE...THE GEM/GFS/ECMWF ALL INDICATE A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DURING THE TUE/WED PERIOD OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT ALL DIFFER ON TIMING/PLACEMENT. THE GENERAL PATTERN DOES SUGGEST INTERMITTENT CHANCES FOR CONVECTION NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE STRONGER MID/UPPER FLOW OVER THE REGION...WHICH IS TYPICAL FOR MID JUNE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE HIT AND MISS. WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW AND AMEND AS NEEDED. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...RIDDLE SHORT TERM...JR LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1232 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...MOVING EASTWARD. ISOLATED RADAR RETURNS AT BEST FARTHER NORTH. CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK WITH SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF SHOWERS NORTH AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST SOUTH. CHANCE OF FOG IS STILL IN THE LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE HRRR AND RAP MODELS...MAINLY DICKINSON/WATFORD CITY AREA. LIGHT WINDS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S ON TRACK FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1001 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015 ONLY MINOR UPDATE TO POPS THIS EVENING BASED ON LATEST RADAR. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES. UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015 CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS WEDNESDAY EVENING. LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS TWO BANDS OF SHOWERS TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ONE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I94 CORRIDOR AND ANOTHER ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. UPDATED POPS EARLY THIS EVENING TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. SHOWERS ARE DISSIPATING AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO DRIER ATMOSPHERE. ALSO TOOK OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. 18Z NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE MINIMAL CAPE. LATEST RAP/HRRR ITERATIONS ALSO INDICATE MU-CAPE REMAINING SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015 CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER EASTERN ONTARIO WITH HIGH SETTLING THROUGH THE CANADIAN PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WEST WITH LOW OVER CALIFORNIA RESULTING IN WEST/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA. WIDE VARIETY OF SHORT WAVES NOTED IN THE FLOW IN OUR REGION. FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THIS EVENING AS PARADE OF WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH BRINGING CONTINUED SHOWER CHANCES TO THE AREA. WILL KEEP THUNDER CHANCES LOW WITH MEAGER INSTABILITY IN PLACE. HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF SOME PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTH GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. ON THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL BRING DIMINISHING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015 TRANSITORY MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE FRIDAY EVENING WILL RESULT IN A DRY/WARM FORECAST. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OUR NEXT UPSTREAM UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE GULF OF ALASKA IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MANITOBA BY SUNDAY. IN DOING SO...AHEAD OF THE TROUGH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SURFACE COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM ENTERING NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE COLD FRONT BEING PARALLEL TO THE UPPER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT A SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THUS MAINTAINED A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHEAST SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE HIGHEST POPS ARE CONFINED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK TO RESIDE NORTH OF THE BORDER CLOSEST TO A POTENT 100KT/300MB JET STREAK SHIFTING ACROSS CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR ANY SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND CO-LOCATED WITH THE HIGHEST CAPE/SHEAR WOULD FAVOR THE WEST SATURDAY...THEN ACROSS THE SOUTH SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD BRINGING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...ONLY A MENTION OF VCSH AT KJMS WITH MOST CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP A SCATTERED IFR LAYER AND A MENTION OF VCFG. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JV SHORT TERM...JJS LONG TERM...KS AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
812 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015 .SYNOPSIS... MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA...SOUTH OF A FRONT. SHOWERS/STORMS MOST COVERAGE AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGH BUILDS NORTH MONDAY. FRONT BACK IN VICINITY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... UPDATED POPS PER RADAR IMAGES...NAM AND RAP MODELS QPF OUTPUT TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. THEREFORE...INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOLLOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED GUIDANCE. ADJUSTED DEWPOINTS PER LATEST SFC OBS AND RECOVERY EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST QUADRANT PER RADAR IMAGES SHOWING UPCOMING LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WIND RADAR ESTIMATES SHOW AROUND 40 KNOTS WINDS WITH THE FIRST LINE OF STORMS. A SECOND BATCH OF STORMS OVER OH WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHEAST OH AROUND PERRY ATHENS AND MORGAN COUNTIES BY 23-00Z. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO BREAK OUT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WARM AND MUGGY ATMOSPHERE...AS DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE INCREASED TO UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH NEAR THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON...AND GREATEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION/SEVERE WILL BE IN VICINITY OF THIS FRONT. THERE HAS BEEN A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUED IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT...EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO PARTS OF OUR SOUTHEAST OHIO COUNTIES...WHERE MODERATE MID LEVEL UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW OF 30-40 KTS EXISTS. CONVECTION OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV...WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD...AND MULTIPLE UPPER DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE AREA. BULK OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD DIE DOWN FOR THE MOST PART...BUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER CANT BE RULED OUT. WITH THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY ACROSS THE AREA...AND CLOUD COVER/CONVECTIVE DEBRIS...KEPT OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE...UPPER 60S LOWER 70S. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY...WITH THE AREA REMAINING ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM MUGGY ATMOSPHERE...AND WITH ADDITIONAL UPPER IMPULSES MOVING NE THROUGH THE REGION. WITH THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE...STORMS WILL CONTAIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... MUGGY TIME PERIOD WITH MOST DEW POINTS ON EITHER SIDE OF 70 FOR THE LOWLAND COUNTIES. YESTERDAY THOUGHT THE SURFACE FRONT MAY REACH AS FAR SOUTH ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. NOW APPEARS IT WILL STALL A BIT FURTHER NORTH...JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA IN EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY AT LEAST 30 POPS SOUTH...AND 40 TO 50 POPS NORTH - DURING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS BUILDING BACK NORTH SLIGHTLY... SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...STILL HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE EXTREME SOUTH AND 30 POPS MONDAY. HAVE A FEW TEMPERATURE READINGS REACHING 90 SUNDAY AFTERNOON NEAR OUR KY BORDER COUNTIES...BUT OF COURSE ALL DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS/CONVECTION. HAVE LOWER 90S MAKING MORE OF A COMEBACK ON MONDAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE BATTLE CONTINUES...BETWEEN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE AND THE FRONTAL ZONE POSITIONED AT THE BOTTOM OF THE WESTERLIES. THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE TRIES TO RECLAIM OUR CWA ON MONDAY...BUT THEN BREAKS DOWN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WILL INCREASE POPS FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. CONCERNED ABOUT ROUNDS OF CONVECTION EVENTUALLY LEADING TO WATER CONCERNS. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE FLUCTUATING AROUND 2 INCHES...WITH DEW POINTS IN UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. TOO PREMATURE TO INCLUDE IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL ON THIS THURSDAY...CAN REVISIT IT ON FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LINES OF CONVECTION AS THEY MOVE EAST TONIGHT. CODED VCTS AT MOST PLACES AFTER 08Z PER NAM MODEL SUGGESTING PERIODS OF PCPN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA...WHILE THE RAP MODEL SHOW ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTH. ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 26 KNOTS ALONG THEIR PATH. EXPECT CLOUDS TO PREVAIL MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT TO PREVENT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT. AFTER A HOT AFTERNOON...DEWPOINT DEPRESSION SPREAD IS LARGE...AND IT WILL TAKE CONSIDERABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH DEWPOINTS DESPITE A DEWPOINT RECOVERY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. HOWEVER...THE AFOREMENTION ROUNDS OF SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE AT THE SFC TO PRODUCE PATCHY FOG WHERE IT RAINS IF SKIES CLEAR. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KNOTS...MARGINAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE...EXPECT VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE PASSING SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AGAIN AREA WIDE AFTER 12-14Z SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONVECTION COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. DENSER FOG COULD DEVELOP THAN EXPECTED. .AFTER 00Z SATURDAY... BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/SL NEAR TERM...ARJ/SL SHORT TERM...KTB LONG TERM...JSH/MAC AVIATION...ARJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
354 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE STATIONARY JUST NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR INTO FRIDAY MORNING...ACTING AS THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED-SCATTERED MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY...KEEPING MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA IN A VERY WARM AND RATHER HUMID AIRMASS. ANOTHER...SLIGHTLY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS SATURDAY. LOWER HUMIDITY AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. PERSISTENT WESTERLY FLOW FROM THE WESTERN GLAKES TO PENNSYLVANIA WILL BRING A FEW MORE WEAK DISTURBANCES AND CHANCES FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... FRONTAL BOUNDARY ANALYZED AT 18Z RIGHT ALONG THE LENGTH OF INTERSTATE 80 ACROSS PRACTICALLY ALL OF PENN. A SLIGHT SWD DRIFT TO THIS FRONT IS POSSIBLE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. FCST SOUNDINGS /AND VISUAL INTERROGATION OF THE CU OUT THE WINDOW/ SHOW THAT THE LFC IS BEING REACHED ATTM AS CU ARE SHOWING SOME VERTICAL DVLPMT /BUT STILL BEING PINCHED OFF/. THIS SHOULD CHANGE OVER THE NEXT HOUR AS AN ADDITIONAL FEW DEG F OF HEATING AND CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND IT`S WEAK-MDT LLVL THETA-E CONVERGENCE HELPS THE CU TO PENETRATE THE WEAK MID-LEVEL CAP AND GROW INTO ISOLATED-SCT TSRA. MORE TRUST IN HRRR MODEL /AND IT`S TIME AND PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION/ THAN YESTERDAY/S MIDDAY RUNS...BASED ON MID LEVEL TEMPS/CAPPING BEING ABOUT 2-3C LOWER. ALL OTHER OPERATION GUIDANCE AND 03Z SREF POINTS TWD WCENT PENN...EAST TO THE MID SUSQ VALLEY AND SRN POCONOS /NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF I-80/ BEING THE CROSS- HAIRS FOR SCTD SHRA AND ISOLATED...TALL PULSE TSRA. FIRST TIME THIS YEAR...I RECALL SEEING SOME LOW END CHANCES /30-40 PERCENT/ FOR CAPE ABOVE 3000 J/KG ON THE SREF HERE IN CENTRAL PENN. VERY INTERESTING TO NOTE THE DISTINCT COLD POOLS DEVELOPED BY THE HRRR FROM THE CONVECTION DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WE KNOW THAT STORMS WILL FAIRLY EASILY BREAK THE MID-LEVEL CAP THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL SEE TSRA ON RADAR. THE BILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE. STILL PPINE AS OF 18Z...HOWEVER...THE LATEST 16Z HRRR RUN CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE FIRST STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR I-80 AND INVOF KDUJ AND KFIG BETWEEN 18-19Z...THEN PROPAGATE GENERALLY TO THE EAST. SOME DEVIANT CELL MOTION TO THE NE OR SE IS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY INVOF THE LARGER COLD POOLS. WESTERLY LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE IN THE 25-30KT RANGE THROUGH THE REST OF DAY. CAPES FROM SOME MDLS ARE GIANT - 2500-3000 J/KG IN THE CENTRAL COS. THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTHWARD FROM IT/S SEEMING CURRENT W-E POSITION OVER THE NRN TIER. MDLS AGREE THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ONLY SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD KEEPING THE W-E ORIENTATION. THEREFORE...THE HIGHER 35-40 POPS WILL BE DRAWN OVER FIG-UNV-SEG-MUI. THE STRONGER CAP IN PLACE OVER THE SRN TIER...AND GREATER DISTANCE FROM THE FRONT WILL LIKELY THWART MOST ATTEMPTS TO GENERATE DEEP CONVECTION THERE. SO...LOWER POPS THERE. THE LACK OF MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP POPS LOWER IN THE NORTHERN TIER AS WELL. TEMPS ON TRACK TO TRY TO TICKLE RECORD HIGHS FOR THE DATE...BUT WILL LIKELY FALL 1-3 DEG F SHORT. PLACES ALONG THE MASON- DIXON LINE WILL GET VERY CLOSE TO 90F. HRRR SHOWS TEMPS NEAR 90F EVEN THROUGHOUT THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL PENN...WHILE THE NORTHERN MTNS GET CLOSE TO 80F. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... ANY ISOLATED-SCT CONVECTION STRUNG OUT NEAR THE I-80 CORRIDOR SHOULD WANE IN THE EARLY EVENING WITH NO SUPPORT FROM ANY SIG JET STREAK OR LLVL WINDS/MOISTURE ADVECTION. THE QUASI STNRY FRONT SLIDES NORTHWARD A BIT AND COULD MAKE A SPRINKLE IN THE N/W. MORE- CERTAINLY...THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHT MUGGINESS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL STAY MILD/WARM WITH MINS IN THE L-MID 60S CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENN...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH TIER OF PENN. HEIGHTS DO NOT CHANGE AT ALL FRIDAY...SO POPS SHOULD BE LOWER IN THE S...BUT ELEVATED HEATING SURFACES - LIKE THE LAURELS - MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO POP SCT T/SHRA. THE DEEP MIXING ON FRIDAY WILL PUSH THE 8H TEMPS TO 20C. MAXES IN THE 90S ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 80S EVEN ON THE HILL TOPS OF NRN PENN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GLAKES BRINGING MODERATE CHCS FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA ACROSS NW PENN. ISOLATED-SCTD LATE DAY/EVENING SHRA AND TSRA WILL OCCUR LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES AND SUSQ VALLEY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... SUBTROPICAL LONGWAVE RIDGE...BERMUDA HIGH...IS FORECAST TO BUILD NWD ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. BY THE WEEKEND AND MAINTAIN POSITION INTO NEXT WEEK. VERY WARM AND HUMID WEATHER LOOKS TO BE THE RULE FOR THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. PAINTED GENERALLY CHANCE POPS EACH DAY WITH AS MUCH CONFIDENCE AS POSSIBLE. SEVERAL CHANCES FOR HIGHER POPS LOOK TO EXIST DURING THE PERIOD AS OUTLINED NEXT. A WEAKENING MID LVL TROUGH IS FCST TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST INTO SATURDAY AND SHOULD PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE LOWER LAKES SWD INTO CENTRAL PA. SCT TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVG BOUNDARY WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORING THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HOLD THE WAVY/INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE FRONT INVOF THE MASON DIXON LINE. THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH DRY AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE GEFS FCSTS A NOTABLE DROP IN PWATS SAT NGT-SUN BEFORE ANOMALOUS MSTR/PWATS SURGE BACK INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN MCS TYPE COMPLEX MOVE THROUGH THE AREA NEXT WEEK BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE DETAILS ESPECIALLY AT THIS RANGE. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STAY STRETCHED OUT ALONG MUCH OF INTERSTATE 80 IN PENN LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS FRONT COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED-SCATTERED LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING TSRA IN THE VICINITY OF KAOO- KFIG- KUNV- KSEG. INCLUDED MENTION OF VCTS IN SEVERAL CENTRAL PENN TAFS THROUGH ABOUT 00Z FRIDAY. LATER TONIGHT...LIGHT WIND WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH DEWPOINT AIR AND DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OF THE GROUND TO PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR HAZE/FOG AND PERHAPS SOME PATCHY MVFR STRATUS/STRATO CU. OUTLOOK... FRI...AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE UNTIL AROUND 12Z...THEN VFR WITH ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS...MAINLY NW MTNS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS...MAINLY SOUTH. SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. MON...PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W MTNS. && .CLIMATE... FCST HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY ARE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES FOR BOTH HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT. THIS IS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF RECORDS FOR EACH DATE. FOR TODAY...RECORD HIGH IS 92 IN HARRISBURG AND 93 IN WILLIAMSPORT /BOTH SET IN 1925/. FOR FRIDAY...RECORD HIGH IS 91 IN HARRISBURG AND 92 IN WILLIAMSPORT /BOTH SET IN 1925/. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL AVIATION...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
245 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE STATIONARY JUST NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR INTO FRIDAY MORNING...ACTING AS THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED-SCATTERED MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY...KEEPING MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA IN A VERY WARM AND RATHER HUMID AIRMASS. ANOTHER...SLIGHTLY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS SATURDAY. LOWER HUMIDITY AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. PERSISTENT WESTERLY FLOW FROM THE WESTERN GLAKES TO PENNSYLVANIA WILL BRING A FEW MORE WEAK DISTURBANCES AND CHANCES FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... FRONTAL BOUNDARY ANALYZED AT 18Z RIGHT ALONG THE LENGTH OF INTERSTATE 80 ACROSS PRACTICALLY ALL OF PENN. A SLIGHT SWD DRIFT TO THIS FRONT IS POSSIBLE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. FCST SOUNDINGS /AND VISUAL INTERROGATION OF THE CU OUT THE WINDOW/ SHOW THAT THE LFC IS BEING REACHED ATTM AS CU ARE SHOWING SOME VERTICAL DVLPMT /BUT STILL BEING PINCHED OFF/. THIS SHOULD CHANGE OVER THE NEXT HOUR AS AN ADDITIONAL FEW DEG F OF HEATING AND CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND IT`S WEAK-MDT LLVL THETA-E CONVERGENCE HELPS THE CU TO PENETRATE THE WEAK MID-LEVEL CAP AND GROW INTO ISOLATED-SCT TSRA. MORE TRUST IN HRRR MODEL /AND IT`S TIME AND PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION/ THAN YESTERDAY/S MIDDAY RUNS...BASED ON MID LEVEL TEMPS/CAPPING BEING ABOUT 2-3C LOWER. ALL OTHER OPERATION GUIDANCE AND 03Z SREF POINTS TWD WCENT PENN...EAST TO THE MID SUSQ VALLEY AND SRN POCONOS /NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF I-80/ BEING THE CROSS- HAIRS FOR SCTD SHRA AND ISOLATED...TALL PULSE TSRA. FIRST TIME THIS YEAR...I RECALL SEEING SOME LOW END CHANCES /30-40 PERCENT/ FOR CAPE ABOVE 3000 J/KG ON THE SREF HERE IN CENTRAL PENN. VERY INTERESTING TO NOTE THE DISTINCT COLD POOLS DEVELOPED BY THE HRRR FROM THE CONVECTION DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WE KNOW THAT STORMS WILL FAIRLY EASILY BREAK THE MID-LEVEL CAP THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL SEE TSRA ON RADAR. THE BILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE. STILL PPINE AS OF 18Z...HOWEVER...THE LATEST 16Z HRRR RUN CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE FIRST STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR I-80 AND INVOF KDUJ AND KFIG BETWEEN 18-19Z...THEN PROPAGATE GENERALLY TO THE EAST. SOME DEVIANT CELL MOTION TO THE NE OR SE IS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY INVOF THE LARGER COLD POOLS. WESTERLY LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE IN THE 25-30KT RANGE THROUGH THE REST OF DAY. CAPES FROM SOME MDLS ARE GIANT - 2500-3000 J/KG IN THE CENTRAL COS. THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTHWARD FROM IT/S SEEMING CURRENT W-E POSITION OVER THE NRN TIER. MDLS AGREE THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ONLY SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD KEEPING THE W-E ORIENTATION. THEREFORE...THE HIGHER 35-40 POPS WILL BE DRAWN OVER FIG-UNV-SEG-MUI. THE STRONGER CAP IN PLACE OVER THE SRN TIER...AND GREATER DISTANCE FROM THE FRONT WILL LIKELY THWART MOST ATTEMPTS TO GENERATE DEEP CONVECTION THERE. SO...LOWER POPS THERE. THE LACK OF MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP POPS LOWER IN THE NORTHERN TIER AS WELL. TEMPS ON TRACK TO TRY TO TICKLE RECORD HIGHS FOR THE DATE...BUT WILL LIKELY FALL 1-3 DEG F SHORT. PLACES ALONG THE MASON- DIXON LINE WILL GET VERY CLOSE TO 90F. HRRR SHOWS TEMPS NEAR 90F EVEN THROUGHOUT THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL PENN...WHILE THE NORTHERN MTNS GET CLOSE TO 80F. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... ANY ISOLATED-SCT CONVECTION STRUNG OUT NEAR THE I-80 CORRIDOR SHOULD WANE IN THE EARLY EVENING WITH NO SUPPORT FROM ANY SIG JET STREAK OR LLVL WINDS/MOISTURE ADVECTION. THE QUASI STNRY FRONT SLIDES NORTHWARD A BIT AND COULD MAKE A SPRINKLE IN THE N/W. MORE- CERTAINLY...THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHT MUGGINESS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL STAY MILD/WARM WITH MINS IN THE L-MID 60S CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENN...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH TIER OF PENN. HEIGHTS DO NOT CHANGE AT ALL FRIDAY...SO POPS SHOULD BE LOWER IN THE S...BUT ELEVATED HEATING SURFACES - LIKE THE LAURELS - MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO POP SCT T/SHRA. THE DEEP MIXING ON FRIDAY WILL PUSH THE 8H TEMPS TO 20C. MAXES IN THE 90S ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 80S EVEN ON THE HILL TOPS OF NRN PENN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GLAKES BRINGING MODERATE CHCS FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA ACROSS NW PENN. ISOLATED-SCTD LATE DAY/EVENING SHRA AND TSRA WILL OCCUR LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES AND SUSQ VALLEY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A WEAKENING MID LVL TROUGH IS FCST TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST INTO SATURDAY AND SHOULD PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE LOWER LAKES SWD INTO CENTRAL PA. SCT TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVG BOUNDARY WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORING THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HOLD THE WAVY/INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE FRONT INVOF THE MASON DIXON LINE. THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH DRY AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE GEFS FCSTS A NOTABLE DROP IN PWATS SAT NGT-SUN BEFORE ANOMALOUS MSTR/PWATS SURGE BACK INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN MCS TYPE COMPLEX MOVE THROUGH THE AREA NEXT WEEK BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE DETAILS ESPECIALLY AT THIS RANGE. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STAY STRETCHED OUT ALONG MUCH OF INTERSTATE 80 IN PENN LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS FRONT COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED-SCATTERED LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING TSRA IN THE VICINITY OF KAOO- KFIG- KUNV- KSEG. INCLUDED MENTION OF VCTS IN SEVERAL CENTRAL PENN TAFS THROUGH ABOUT 00Z FRIDAY. LATER TONIGHT...LIGHT WIND WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH DEWPOINT AIR AND DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OF THE GROUND TO PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR HAZE/FOG AND PERHAPS SOME PATCHY MVFR STRATUS/STRATO CU. OUTLOOK... FRI...AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE UNTIL AROUND 12Z...THEN VFR WITH ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS...MAINLY NW MTNS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS...MAINLY SOUTH. SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. MON...PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W MTNS. && .CLIMATE... FCST HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY ARE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES FOR BOTH HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT. THIS IS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF RECORDS FOR EACH DATE. FOR TODAY...RECORD HIGH IS 92 IN HARRISBURG AND 93 IN WILLIAMSPORT /BOTH SET IN 1925/. FOR FRIDAY...RECORD HIGH IS 91 IN HARRISBURG AND 92 IN WILLIAMSPORT /BOTH SET IN 1925/. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/DANGELO LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...LAMBERT CLIMATE...LAMBERT/HAGNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1227 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE STATIONARY JUST NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR INTO FRIDAY MORNING...ACTING AS THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED-SCATTERED MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY...KEEPING MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA IN A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. ANOTHER...SLIGHTLY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS SATURDAY. LOWER HUMIDITY AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. PERSISTENT WESTERLY FLOW FROM THE WESTERN GLAKES TO PENNSYLVANIA WILL BRING A FEW MORE WEAK DISTURBANCES AND CHANCES FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY AT 16Z...FROM THE NORTHERN POCONOS...WEST TO NEAR KIPT AND KDUJ. A SLIGHT SWD DRIFT TO THIS FRONT IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MORE TRUST IN HRRR MODEL /AND IT`S TIME AND PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION/ THAN YESTERDAY/S MIDDAY RUNS...BASED ON MID LEVEL TEMPS/CAPPING BEING ABOUT 2-3C LOWER. ALL OTHER OPERATION GUIDANCE AND 03Z SREF POINTS TWD WCENT PENN...EAST TO THE MID SUSQ VALLEY AND SRN POCONOS /NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF I-80/ BEING THE CROSS- HAIRS FOR SCATTERED/TALL PULSE TSRA. FIRST TIME THIS YEAR...I RECALL SEEING SOME LOW END CHANCES /30-40 PERCENT/ FOR CAPE ABOVE 3000 J/KG ON THE SREF HERE IN CENTRAL PENN. VERY INTERESTING TO NOTE THE DISTINCT COLD POOLS DEVELOPED BY THE HRRR FROM THE CONVECTION DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WE KNOW THAT STORMS WILL FAIRLY EASILY BREAK THE MID-LEVEL CAP THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL SEE TSRA ON RADAR. THE BILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE. STILL PPINE AS OF 16Z...HOWEVER...THE LATEST 14Z HRRR RUN CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE FIRST STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR I-80 AND INVOF KDUJ AND KFIG BETWEEN 18-19Z...THEN PROPAGATE GENERALLY TO THE EAST. SOME DEVIANT CELL MOTION TO THE NE OR SE IS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY INVOF THE LARGER COLD POOLS. WESTERLY LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE IN THE 25-30KT RANGE THROUGH THE REST OF DAY. CAPES FROM SOME MDLS ARE GIANT - 2500-3000 J/KG IN THE CENTRAL COS. THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTHWARD FROM IT/S SEEMING CURRENT W-E POSITION OVER THE NRN TIER. MDLS AGREE THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ONLY SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD KEEPING THE W-E ORIENTATION. THEREFORE...THE HIGHER 35-40 POPS WILL BE DRAWN OVER FIG-UNV-SEG-MUI. THE STRONGER CAP IN PLACE OVER THE SRN TIER...AND GREATER DISTANCE FROM THE FRONT WILL LIKELY THWART MOST ATTEMPTS TO GENERATE DEEP CONVECTION THERE. SO...LOWER POPS THERE. THE LACK OF MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP POPS LOWER IN THE NORTHERN TIER AS WELL. MAXES WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER OF COURSE. BUT THE MORNING CROP OF CLOUDS SHOULD BE MAINLY MID CLOUDS AND WILL ERODE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND SHOW SOME BIG BREAKS. NOT CLOUDY ENOUGH TO KEEP THE ALMOST FULL JUNE SUN FROM HEATING THINGS UP SIGNIFICANTLY. PLACES ALONG THE MASON- DIXON LINE WILL GET VERY CLOSE TO 90F. HRRR SHOWS TEMPS NEAR 90F EVEN THROUGHOUT THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL PENN...WHILE THE NORTHERN MTNS GET CLOSE TO 80F && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... CONVECTION SHOULD WANE IN THE EARLY EVENING WITH NO SUPPORT FROM ANY SIG JET STREAK OR LLVL WINDS/MOISTURE ADVECTION. FRONT SLIDES NORTHWARD A BIT AND COULD MAKE A SPRINKLE IN THE N/W. MORE- CERTAINLY...THE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL STAY MILD/WARM WITH MINS IN THE 60S. HEIGHTS DO NOT CHANGE AT ALL...SO POPS SHOULD BE LOWER IN THE S...BUT ELEVATED HEATING SURFACES - LIKE THE LAURELS - MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO POP SCT T/SHRA. THE DEEP MIXING ON FRIDAY WILL PUSH THE 8H TEMPS TO 20C. MAXES IN THE 90S ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 80S EVEN ON THE HILL TOPS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE FRI-TUE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDING WWD FROM THE WRN ATLC OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS WILL FAVOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION FOCUSED WITHIN PLUME OF ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE/PWATS POOLING AROUND THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 90F EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. STRONG HEATING OF A MOIST BLYR/60+ SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD SUPPORT SOME WEAKLY FORCED DIURNAL CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH POSSIBLE TRIGGER FOCUS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OR LEE SFC TROUGH. A WEAKENING MID LVL TROUGH IS FCST TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST INTO SATURDAY AND SHOULD PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE LOWER LAKES SWD INTO CENTRAL PA. SCT TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVG BOUNDARY WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORING THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HOLD THE WAVY/INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE FRONT INVOF THE MASON DIXON LINE. THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH DRY AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE GEFS FCSTS A NOTABLE DROP IN PWATS SAT NGT-SUN BEFORE ANOMALOUS MSTR/PWATS SURGE BACK INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN MCS TYPE COMPLEX MOVE THROUGH THE AREA NEXT WEEK BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE DETAILS ESPECIALLY AT THIS RANGE. && .AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND BECOME LOCATED NEAR INTERSTATE 80 THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR STRATO CU NORTH OF THE FRONT INVOF KBFD...AND AREAS OF MVFR HAZE SOUTH OF THE FRONT...HAVE IMPROVED TO MAINLY VFR AS OF 15Z. THE STALLED SFC FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL PA COULD TRIGGER SCT MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING TSRA IN THE VICINITY OF KFIG- KUNV- KSEG. HOWEVER...NO EXPLICIT MENTION IN THE TAFS DUE TO EXPECTED RELATIVELY SPARSE COVERAGE AND UNCERTAIN TIMING. OUTLOOK... FRI...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS...MAINLY NW MTNS. SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS...MAINLY SOUTH. SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. MON...PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W MTNS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1105 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR INTERSTATE 80 THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY...ACTING AS THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY...KEEPING MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA IN A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. ANOTHER...AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS SATURDAY. LOWER HUMIDITY AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. PERSISTENT WESTERLY FLOW FROM THE WESTERN GLAKES TO PENNSYLVANIA WILL BRING A FEW MORE WEAK DISTURBANCES AND CHANCES FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EASILY ANALYZED AT 14Z...FROM THE NORTHERN POCONOS...WEST TO NEAR KIPT AND KDUJ. A SLIGHT SWD DRIFT TO THIS FRONT WILL OCCUR THROUGH TODAY. MORE TRUST IN HRRR MODEL /AND IT`S TIME AND PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION/ THAN YESTERDAY/S MIDDAY RUNS...BASED ON MID LEVEL TEMPS/CAPPING BEING ABOUT 2-3C LOWER. ALL OTHER OPERATION GUIDANCE AND 03Z SREF POINTS TWD WCENT PENN...EAST TO THE MID SUSQ VALLEY AND SRN POCONOS /NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF I-80/ BEING THE CROSS- HAIRS FOR SCATTERED/TALL PULSE TSRA. FIRST TIME THIS YEAR...I RECALL SEEING SOME LOW END CHANCES /30-40 PERCENT/ FOR CAPE ABOVE 3000 J/KG ON THE SREF HERE IN CENTRAL PENN. VERY INTERESTING TO NOTE THE DISTINCT COLD POOLS DEVELOPED BY THE HRRR FROM THE CONVECTION DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WE KNOW THAT STORMS WILL FAIRLY EASILY BREAK THE MID LEVEL CAP THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL SEE TSRA ON RADAR. THE BILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE. FIRST STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR I-80 AND INVOF KDUJ AND KFIG BETWEEN 17-18Z...THEN PROPAGATE EAST OR ESE DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD POOLS. 40KT LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BE DYING DOWN TO JUST 25-30KTS THROUGH THE DAY. CAPES FROM SOME MDLS ARE GIANT - 2500-3000 J/KG IN THE CENTRAL COS. THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTHWARD FROM IT/S SEEMING CURRENT W-E POSITION OVER THE NRN TIER. MDLS AGREE THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ONLY SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD KEEPING THE W-E ORIENTATION. THEREFORE...THE HIGHER 40 POPS WILL BE DRAWN OVER FIG-UNV-SEG-MUI. THE STRONGER CAP IN PLACE OVER THE SRN TIER...AND GREATER DISTANCE FROM THE FRONT WILL LIKELY THWART MOST ATTEMPTS TO GENERATE DEEP CONVECTION THERE. SO...LOWER POPS THERE. THE LACK OF MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP POPS LOWER IN THE NORTHERN TIER AS WELL. MAXES WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER OF COURSE. BUT THE MORNING CROP OF CLOUDS SHOULD BE MAINLY MID CLOUDS AND WILL ERODE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND SHOW SOME BIG BREAKS. NOT CLOUDY ENOUGH TO KEEP THE ALMOST FULL JUNE SUN FROM HEATING THINGS UP SIGNIFICANTLY. PLACES ALONG THE MASON- DIXON LINE WILL GET VERY CLOSE TO 90F. HRRR SHOWS TEMPS NEAR 90F EVEN THROUGHOUT THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL PENN...WHILE THE NORTHERN MTNS GET CLOSE TO 80F && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... CONVECTION SHOULD WANE IN THE EARLY EVENING WITH NO SUPPORT FROM ANY SIG JET STREAK OR LLVL WINDS/MOISTURE ADVECTION. FRONT SLIDES NORTHWARD A BIT AND COULD MAKE A SPRINKLE IN THE N/W. MORE- CERTAINLY...THE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL STAY MILD/WARM WITH MINS IN THE 60S. HEIGHTS DO NOT CHANGE AT ALL...SO POPS SHOULD BE LOWER IN THE S...BUT ELEVATED HEATING SURFACES - LIKE THE LAURELS - MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO POP SCT T/SHRA. THE DEEP MIXING ON FRIDAY WILL PUSH THE 8H TEMPS TO 20C. MAXES IN THE 90S ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 80S EVEN ON THE HILL TOPS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE FRI-TUE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDING WWD FROM THE WRN ATLC OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS WILL FAVOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION FOCUSED WITHIN PLUME OF ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE/PWATS POOLING AROUND THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 90F EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. STRONG HEATING OF A MOIST BLYR/60+ SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD SUPPORT SOME WEAKLY FORCED DIURNAL CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH POSSIBLE TRIGGER FOCUS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OR LEE SFC TROUGH. A WEAKENING MID LVL TROUGH IS FCST TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST INTO SATURDAY AND SHOULD PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE LOWER LAKES SWD INTO CENTRAL PA. SCT TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVG BOUNDARY WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORING THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HOLD THE WAVY/INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE FRONT INVOF THE MASON DIXON LINE. THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH DRY AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE GEFS FCSTS A NOTABLE DROP IN PWATS SAT NGT-SUN BEFORE ANOMALOUS MSTR/PWATS SURGE BACK INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN MCS TYPE COMPLEX MOVE THROUGH THE AREA NEXT WEEK BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE DETAILS ESPECIALLY AT THIS RANGE. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND BECOME LOCATED NEAR INTERSTATE 80 THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR STRATO CU NORTH OF THE FRONT INVOF KBFD...AND AREAS OF MVFR HAZE SOUTH OF THE FRONT...HAVE IMPROVED TO MAINLY VFR AS OF 15Z. THE STALLED SFC FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL PA COULD TRIGGER SCT MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING TSRA IN THE VICINITY OF KFIG- KUNV- KSEG. HOWEVER...NO EXPLICIT MENTION IN THE TAFS DUE TO EXPECTED RELATIVELY SPARSE COVERAGE AND UNCERTAIN TIMING. OUTLOOK... FRI...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS...MAINLY NW MTNS. SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS...MAINLY SOUTH. SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. MON...PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W MTNS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
657 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE THURSDAY. THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD NORTH ONCE AGAIN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WHEN SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE RULE. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... CONFLICTING SIGNALS ON CONVECTION TODAY...WITH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY. FIRST OFF...CONFIDENCE IN NEAR-TERM/MESO MODEL PERFORMANCE HAS BEEN TAINTED BY YESTERDAY/S QUESTIONABLE GUIDANCE AS NOTED BY DAY AND EVENING SHIFTS. THEY SEEM TO BE DOING BETTER HERE OVERNIGHT...ESP THE HI-RES ARW. SO...FOLLOWING THAT GUY DOWN THE ROAD YIELDS VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...SPARSE BUT PERSISTENT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING UPSTREAM THROUGH THE NIGHT. 40KT LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BE DYING DOWN TO JUST 25-30KTS THROUGH THE DAY. CAPES FROM SOME MDLS GIANT - NEAR 2000 IN THE CENTRAL COS. BUT OTHERS YIELD ONLY 500-800. STILL PLENTY OF CAPE FOR THUNDER AND POSSIBLE DOWNDRAFTS/GUSTINESS...BUT SEVERITY IS CERTAINLY IN QUESTION THEN. THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTHWARD FROM IT/S SEEMING CURRENT W-E POSITION OVER THE NRN TIER. MDLS AGREE THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ONLY SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD KEEPING THE W-E ORIENTATION. THEREFORE...THE HIGHER 40 POPS WILL BE DRAWN OVER FIG-UNV-SEG-MUI. THE BIGGER CAP IN PLACE OVER THE SRN TIER WILL LIKELY THWART MOST ATTEMPTS TO GENERATE DEEP CONVECTION THERE. SO...LOWER POPS THERE. THE LACK OF MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP POPS LOWER IN THE NORTHERN TIER AS WELL. MAXES WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER OF COURSE. BUT THE MORNING CROP OF CLOUDS SHOULD BE MAINLY MID CLOUDS AND WILL SHOW SOME BIG BREAKS. NOT CLOUDY ENOUGH TO KEEP THE ALMOST FULL JUNE SUN FROM HEATING THINGS UP SIGNIFICANTLY. PLACES ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE WILL GET VERY CLOSE TO 90F...WHILE THE NORTHERN MTNS GET CLOSE TO 80F. THE CLOUDS AND POSS TS/SHRA IN THE CENTRAL STRIPE MAY KEEP THEM DOWN CLOSER TO 80...BUT NOT COUNTING OUT THE JUNE SUN AND CALL FOR MAXES IN THE M80S IN THE VALLEYS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... CONVECTIONS SHOULD WANE IN THE EARLY EVENING WITH NO SUPPORT FROM ANY SIG JET STREAK OR LLVL WINDS/MOISTURE ADVECTION. FRONT SLIDES NORTHWARD A BIT AND COULD MAKE A SPRINKLE IN THE N/W. MORE- CERTAINLY...THE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL STAY MILD/WARM WITH MINS IN THE 60S. HEIGHTS DO NOT CHANGE AT ALL...SO POPS SHOULD BE LOWER IN THE S...BUT ELEVATED HEATING SURFACES - LIKE THE LAURELS - MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO POP SCT T/SHRA. THE DEEP MIXING ON FRIDAY WILL PUSH THE 8H TEMPS TO 20C. MAXES IN THE 90S ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 80S EVEN ON THE HILL TOPS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE FRI-TUE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDING WWD FROM THE WRN ATLC OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS WILL FAVOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION FOCUSED WITHIN PLUME OF ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE/PWATS POOLING AROUND THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 90F EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. STRONG HEATING OF A MOIST BLYR/60+ SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD SUPPORT SOME WEAKLY FORCED DIURNAL CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH POSSIBLE TRIGGER FOCUS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OR LEE SFC TROUGH. A WEAKENING MID LVL TROUGH IS FCST TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST INTO SATURDAY AND SHOULD PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE LOWER LAKES SWD INTO CENTRAL PA. SCT TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVG BOUNDARY WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORING THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HOLD THE WAVY/INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE FRONT INVOF THE MASON DIXON LINE. THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH DRY AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE GEFS FCSTS A NOTABLE DROP IN PWATS SAT NGT-SUN BEFORE ANOMALOUS MSTR/PWATS SURGE BACK INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN MCS TYPE COMPLEX MOVE THROUGH THE AREA NEXT WEEK BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE DETAILS ESPECIALLY AT THIS RANGE. && .AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO PA THIS MORNING...ACCOMPANIED BY ISOLD SHRA ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS. CAN/T RULE OUT A BRIEF VIS REDUCTION AT KUNV ARND 12Z BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR OUTPUT. FURTHER NORTH...A PLUME OF PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE NW MTNS COULD PRODUCE TEMPO MVFR CIGS THRU ARND 13Z. A BAND OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT...COMBINED WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AT THE SFC...SHOULD PRODUCE MARGINAL LLWS CONDS THRU ARND 12Z-13Z ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PA. IMPROVING FLYING CONDS EXPECTED AFTER 13Z...AS ANY STRATOCU AT KBFD LIFTS TO VFR AND DIMINISHING WINDS ALOFT END THE THREAT OF LLWS ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL PA. STALLED SFC FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL PA COULD TRIGGER SCT LATE DAY AND EVENING TSRA IN THE VICINITY OF KFIG-KUNV-KSEG. HOWEVER...NO EXPLICIT MENTION IN THE TAFS DUE TO EXPECTED SPARSE COVERAGE AND UNCERTAIN TIMING. OUTLOOK... FRI...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS...MAINLY NW MTNS. SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS...MAINLY SOUTH. SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. MON...PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W MTNS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO NEAR TERM...DANGELO SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
542 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE THURSDAY. THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD NORTH ONCE AGAIN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WHEN SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE RULE. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... CONFLICTING SIGNALS ON CONVECTION TODAY...WITH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY. FIRST OFF...CONFIDENCE IN NEAR-TERM/MESO MODEL PERFORMANCE HAS BEEN TAINTED BY YESTERDAY/S QUESTIONABLE GUIDANCE AS NOTED BY DAY AND EVENING SHIFTS. THEY SEEM TO BE DOING BETTER HERE OVERNIGHT...ESP THE HI-RES ARW. SO...FOLLOWING THAT GUY DOWN THE ROAD YIELDS VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...SPARSE BUT PERSISTENT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING UPSTREAM THROUGH THE NIGHT. 40KT LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BE DYING DOWN TO JUST 25-30KTS THROUGH THE DAY. CAPES FROM SOME MDLS GIANT - NEAR 2000 IN THE CENTRAL COS. BUT OTHERS YIELD ONLY 500-800. STILL PLENTY OF CAPE FOR THUNDER AND POSSIBLE DOWNDRAFTS/GUSTINESS...BUT SEVERITY IS CERTAINLY IN QUESTION THEN. THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTHWARD FROM IT/S SEEMING CURRENT W-E POSITION OVER THE NRN TIER. MDLS AGREE THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ONLY SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD KEEPING THE W-E ORIENTATION. THEREFORE...THE HIGHER 40 POPS WILL BE DRAWN OVER FIG-UNV-SEG-MUI. THE BIGGER CAP IN PLACE OVER THE SRN TIER WILL LIKELY THWART MOST ATTEMPTS TO GENERATE DEEP CONVECTION THERE. SO...LOWER POPS THERE. THE LACK OF MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP POPS LOWER IN THE NORTHERN TIER AS WELL. MAXES WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER OF COURSE. BUT THE MORNING CROP OF CLOUDS SHOULD BE MAINLY MID CLOUDS AND WILL SHOW SOME BIG BREAKS. NOT CLOUDY ENOUGH TO KEEP THE ALMOST FULL JUNE SUN FROM HEATING THINGS UP SIGNIFICANTLY. PLACES ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE WILL GET VERY CLOSE TO 90F...WHILE THE NORTHERN MTNS GET CLOSE TO 80F. THE CLOUDS AND POSS TS/SHRA IN THE CENTRAL STRIPE MAY KEEP THEM DOWN CLOSER TO 80...BUT NOT COUNTING OUT THE JUNE SUN AND CALL FOR MAXES IN THE M80S IN THE VALLEYS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... CONVECTIONS SHOULD WANE IN THE EARLY EVENING WITH NO SUPPORT FROM ANY SIG JET STREAK OR LLVL WINDS/MOISTURE ADVECTION. FRONT SLIDES NORTHWARD A BIT AND COULD MAKE A SPRINKLE IN THE N/W. MORE- CERTAINLY...THE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL STAY MILD/WARM WITH MINS IN THE 60S. HEIGHTS DO NOT CHANGE AT ALL...SO POPS SHOULD BE LOWER IN THE S...BUT ELEVATED HEATING SURFACES - LIKE THE LAURELS - MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO POP SCT T/SHRA. THE DEEP MIXING ON FRIDAY WILL PUSH THE 8H TEMPS TO 20C. MAXES IN THE 90S ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 80S EVEN ON THE HILL TOPS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE FRI-TUE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDING WWD FROM THE WRN ATLC OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS WILL FAVOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION FOCUSED WITHIN PLUME OF ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE/PWATS POOLING AROUND THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 90F EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. STRONG HEATING OF A MOIST BLYR/60+ SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD SUPPORT SOME WEAKLY FORCED DIURNAL CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH POSSIBLE TRIGGER FOCUS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OR LEE SFC TROUGH. A WEAKENING MID LVL TROUGH IS FCST TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST INTO SATURDAY AND SHOULD PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE LOWER LAKES SWD INTO CENTRAL PA. SCT TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVG BOUNDARY WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORING THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HOLD THE WAVY/INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE FRONT INVOF THE MASON DIXON LINE. THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH DRY AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE GEFS FCSTS A NOTABLE DROP IN PWATS SAT NGT-SUN BEFORE ANOMALOUS MSTR/PWATS SURGE BACK INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN MCS TYPE COMPLEX MOVE THROUGH THE AREA NEXT WEEK BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE DETAILS ESPECIALLY AT THIS RANGE. && .AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO PA EARLY THIS MORNING...ACCOMPANIED BY SCT SHRA ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN PA. CAN/T RULE OUT A BRIEF VIS REDUCTION AT KUNV OR KIPT BTWN 11Z-13Z BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR OUTPUT. HOWEVER...MAIN AVIATION CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE AT KBFD...WHERE PLUME OF PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE MTNS COULD PRODUCE TEMPO IFR CIGS THRU ARND 11Z. A BAND OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT...COMBINED WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AT THE SFC...SHOULD PRODUCE MARGINAL LLWS CONDS BTWN 09Z-12Z ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PA. IMPROVING FLYING CONDS EXPECTED AFTER 12Z...AS ANY STRATOCU AT KBFD LIFTS TO VFR AND DIMINISHING WINDS ALOFT END THE THREAT OF LLWS ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL PA. STALLED SFC FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL PA COULD TRIGGER SCT LATE DAY AND EVENING TSRA IN THE VICINITY OF KUNV. HOWEVER...NO EXPLICIT MENTION IN THE TAFS DUE TO EXPECTED SPARSE COVERAGE AND UNCERTAIN TIMING. OUTLOOK... FRI...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS...MAINLY NW MTNS. SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS...MAINLY SOUTH. SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. MON...PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W MTNS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO NEAR TERM...DANGELO SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
202 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE THURSDAY. THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD NORTH ONCE AGAIN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WHEN SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE RULE. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING/... 130 AM UPDATE... MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TIMING/PLACEMENT OF POPS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND MESO GUIDANCE THAT FINALLY SEEMS TO HAVE IT/S ACT TOGETHER. RADAR ALMOST QUIET OVER NRN OH NOW...AS OPPOSED TO A VERY ACTIVE PPI OVER THE LAST TWO HRS. 40 KT WINDS AT 8H OUT OF THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY MSTR INTO THE AREA...BUT WE HAVE LOST JUST ABOUT ALL CAPE. ALSO...WITHOUT A COHERENT UPPER WAVE...IT WILL BE VERY VERY DIFFICULT TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. FRONT SEEMS TO SINK INTO THE CENTRAL COS OVERNIGHT AND WHILE AN ISOLD SHRA IS POSSIBLE THERE IN THE MORNING...WILL WAIT TO LATER IN THE DAY TO TURN UP THE POPS. 10 PM UPDATE... A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION HAS FINALLY SPARKED OFF AND NOW EXTENDS FROM EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO ALL THE WAY BACK TO SOUTHERN IOWA. HARD TO HAVE A LOT OF FAITH IN THE SHORT RANGE HIGH RES GUIDANCE FOR THE PROGRESS OF THE CONVECTION. THE HRRR SOLUTION DOESN`T SEEM TO MAKE SENSE AS IT BACKS PART OF THE LINE BACK TO THE NORTH BEFORE DROPPING IT SOUTH ONCE AGAIN OVER NWRN PA. AT THIS POINT THE WRF-NMM SEEMS TO HAVE THE MOST LOGICAL SOLUTION KEEPING A COHERENT LINE OF CONVECTION IN TACT THROUGH 03-06Z BEFORE WEAKENING IT RAPIDLY. THIS MATCHES WELL TO THE SREF POPS THAT SUGGESTED ACTIVITY DIES BEFORE IT GETS INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. FOR THE TIME BEING THE STORMS HAVE SOME LATE EVENING CAPE AND RESPECTABLE WIND SHEAR TO WORK WITH...BUT THE RAP ALSO INDICATES THAT THE CIN IS ON THE INCREASE AS ONE WOULD EXPECT GIVEN THE HOUR. IT WILL REMAIN MILD OVERNIGHT AND I DROPPED THE CHANCES FOR RAIN DOWN TO NEAR ZERO AFTER MIDNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /11 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... THE COLD FRONT/BOUNDARY SETS UP SOMEWHERE OVERHEAD AS THE BIG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HOLDS IT UP. A RESURGENCE IN SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED THURS AFTN...BUT MUCH LESS CAPE AND ALMOST NO TRIGGERING FEATURE WILL MEAN THEY WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED AND NOT STRONG. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES. MAXES ON THURSDAY WILL TAKE A RUN AT 90F IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE SE WITH 80S ELSEWHERE. A LITTLE MORE HEAT WILL BE ADDED ON FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE FRI-TUE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDING WWD FROM THE WRN ATLC OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS WILL FAVOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION FOCUSED WITHIN PLUME OF ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE/PWATS POOLING AROUND THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 90F EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. STRONG HEATING OF A MOIST BLYR/60+ SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD SUPPORT SOME WEAKLY FORCED DIURNAL CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH POSSIBLE TRIGGER FOCUS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OR LEE SFC TROUGH. A WEAKENING MID LVL TROUGH IS FCST TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST INTO SATURDAY AND SHOULD PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE LOWER LAKES SWD INTO CENTRAL PA. SCT TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVG BOUNDARY WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORING THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HOLD THE WAVY/INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE FRONT INVOF THE MASON DIXON LINE. THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH DRY AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE GEFS FCSTS A NOTABLE DROP IN PWATS SAT NGT-SUN BEFORE ANOMALOUS MSTR/PWATS SURGE BACK INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN MCS TYPE COMPLEX MOVE THROUGH THE AREA NEXT WEEK BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE DETAILS ESPECIALLY AT THIS RANGE. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO PA EARLY THIS MORNING...ACCOMPANIED BY SCT SHRA AND AN ISOLD TSRA ACROSS NORTHERN PA. A BRIEF VIS REDUCTION REMAINS POSS AT KBFD THRU ARND 09Z FROM THESE SHOWERS. HOWEVER...A MVFR CIG REDUCTION IS MORE LIKELY AT KBFD BTWN 09Z-12Z...THE RESULT OF A MOIST SWRLY FLOW ASCENDING THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NW PA. FURTHER SOUTH...VFR CONDS APPEAR NEARLY CERTAIN EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PA. HOWEVER...A BAND OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT...COMBINED WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AT THE SFC...SHOULD PRODUCE MARGINAL LLWS CONDS BTWN 06Z-12Z ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PA. IMPROVING FLYING CONDS EXPECTED AFTER 12Z...AS ANY STRATOCU AT KBFD LIFTS TO VFR AND DIMINISHING WINDS ALOFT END THE THREAT OF LLWS ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL PA. STALLED SFC FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL PA COULD TRIGGER A FEW ISOLD...EVENING SHRA/TSRA SOMEWHERE BTWN I-80 AND THE PA TURNPIKE. HOWEVER...NO EXPLICIT MENTION IN THE TAFS DUE TO EXPECTED SPARSE COVERAGE AND UNCERTAIN TIMING. OUTLOOK... FRI...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS...MAINLY NW MTNS. SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS...MAINLY SOUTH. SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. MON...PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W MTNS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LA CORTE NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
147 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE THURSDAY. THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD NORTH ONCE AGAIN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WHEN SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE RULE. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... 10 PM UPDATE... A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION HAS FINALLY SPARKED OFF AND NOW EXTENDS FROM EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO ALL THE WAY BACK TO SOUTHERN IOWA. HARD TO HAVE A LOT OF FAITH IN THE SHORT RANGE HIGH RES GUIDANCE FOR THE PROGRESS OF THE CONVECTION. THE HRRR SOLUTION DOESN`T SEEM TO MAKE SENSE AS IT BACKS PART OF THE LINE BACK TO THE NORTH BEFORE DROPPING IT SOUTH ONCE AGAIN OVER NWRN PA. AT THIS POINT THE WRF-NMM SEEMS TO HAVE THE MOST LOGICAL SOLUTION KEEPING A COHERENT LINE OF CONVECTION IN TACT THROUGH 03-06Z BEFORE WEAKENING IT RAPIDLY. THIS MATCHES WELL TO THE SREF POPS THAT SUGGESTED ACTIVITY DIES BEFORE IT GETS INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. FOR THE TIME BEING THE STORMS HAVE SOME LATE EVENING CAPE AND RESPECTABLE WIND SHEAR TO WORK WITH...BUT THE RAP ALSO INDICATES THAT THE CIN IS ON THE INCREASE AS ONE WOULD EXPECT GIVEN THE HOUR. IT WILL REMAIN MILD OVERNIGHT AND I DROPPED THE CHANCES FOR RAIN DOWN TO NEAR ZERO AFTER MIDNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... THE COLD FRONT/BOUNDARY SETS UP SOMEWHERE OVERHEAD AS THE BIG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HOLDS IT UP. A RESURGENCE IN SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED THURS AFTN...BUT MUCH LESS CAPE AND ALMOST NO TRIGGERING FEATURE WILL MEAN THEY WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED AND NOT STRONG. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES. MAXES ON THURSDAY WILL TAKE A RUN AT 90F IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE SE WITH 80S ELSEWHERE. A LITTLE MORE HEAT WILL BE ADDED ON FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE FRI-TUE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDING WWD FROM THE WRN ATLC OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS WILL FAVOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION FOCUSED WITHIN PLUME OF ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE/PWATS POOLING AROUND THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 90F EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. STRONG HEATING OF A MOIST BLYR/60+ SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD SUPPORT SOME WEAKLY FORCED DIURNAL CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH POSSIBLE TRIGGER FOCUS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OR LEE SFC TROUGH. A WEAKENING MID LVL TROUGH IS FCST TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST INTO SATURDAY AND SHOULD PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE LOWER LAKES SWD INTO CENTRAL PA. SCT TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVG BOUNDARY WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORING THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HOLD THE WAVY/INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE FRONT INVOF THE MASON DIXON LINE. THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH DRY AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE GEFS FCSTS A NOTABLE DROP IN PWATS SAT NGT-SUN BEFORE ANOMALOUS MSTR/PWATS SURGE BACK INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN MCS TYPE COMPLEX MOVE THROUGH THE AREA NEXT WEEK BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE DETAILS ESPECIALLY AT THIS RANGE. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO PA EARLY THIS MORNING...ACCOMPANIED BY SCT SHRA AND AN ISOLD TSRA ACROSS NORTHERN PA. A BRIEF VIS REDUCTION REMAINS POSS AT KBFD THRU ARND 09Z FROM THESE SHOWERS. HOWEVER...A MVFR CIG REDUCTION IS MORE LIKELY AT KBFD BTWN 09Z-12Z...THE RESULT OF A MOIST SWRLY FLOW ASCENDING THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NW PA. FURTHER SOUTH...VFR CONDS APPEAR NEARLY CERTAIN EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PA. HOWEVER...A BAND OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT...COMBINED WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AT THE SFC...SHOULD PRODUCE MARGINAL LLWS CONDS BTWN 06Z-12Z ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PA. IMPROVING FLYING CONDS EXPECTED AFTER 12Z...AS ANY STRATOCU AT KBFD LIFTS TO VFR AND DIMINISHING WINDS ALOFT END THE THREAT OF LLWS ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL PA. STALLED SFC FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL PA COULD TRIGGER A FEW ISOLD...EVENING SHRA/TSRA SOMEWHERE BTWN I-80 AND THE PA TURNPIKE. HOWEVER...NO EXPLICIT MENTION IN THE TAFS DUE TO EXPECTED SPARSE COVERAGE AND UNCERTAIN TIMING. OUTLOOK... FRI...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS...MAINLY NW MTNS. SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS...MAINLY SOUTH. SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. MON...PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W MTNS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1025 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015 .SYNOPSIS... DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS LEADING TO AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES OCCURRING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 1030 PM EDT...A LATE EVENING ROUND OF WEAK CONVECTIVE TRIGGERING HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS FROM HENDERSONVILLE TO LAKE LURE. THE LATEST HRRR RUN ALLOWS THIS CONVECTION TO SURVIVE ACROSS THE SRN FOOTHILLS BEFORE DIMINISHING IN THE WANING INSTABILITY OVER THE FAR WRN PIEDMONT SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE...WILL TAPER POPS DOWN TO ISOLATED AND KEEP OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN MTNS NEAR THE TN BORDER IN LINGERING WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. STILL EXPECT MINS TO BE SOME 2 TO 3 CATEGORIES ABOVE CLIMO OVERNIGHT. LESS LOW STRATUS IS ANTICIPATED THAN LAST NIGHT GIVEN THE MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT IN THE FLOW...BUT PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTN VALLEYS. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MAKE SOME WESTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL REDUCE THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...THOUGH ACTIVITY IS STILL EXPECTED NEAR AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. MAXES SHOULD RUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO AS THE UPCOMING HOT SPELL GETS STARTED. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 215 PM EDT FRIDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING IN ACRS THE SOUTHEAST STATES LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WORKWEEK. THIS RESULTS IN BELOW AVERAGE COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. WITH THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE IN THE LOW LEVELS ACROSS GA TO THE TN VALLEY...THE CAROLINAS WILL BE UNDER A WEAK...YET PERSISTENT NWLY FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME DOWNSLOPE ENHANCING OF TEMPS AND MIXING OUT OF DWPTS THAT WILL LIMIT CONVECTION EAST OF THE MTNS. SO I WILL FCST THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE MTNS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH JUST ISOLD COVERAGE ACRS THE PIEDMONT. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LWR-MID 90S SUNDAY...AND SOLIDLY IN THE MID-UPR 90S MONDAY. THESE HIGHS WILL BE APPROACHING RECORD HIGHS...BUT LOOK A BIT SHORT BASED ON THE CURRENT FCST. DWPTS IN THE 60S BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS RESULTS IN HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING TRIPLE DIGITS ACRS THE LOWER PIEDMONT SOUTHEAST OF I-85. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 230 PM EDT FRIDAY...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS LOOK TO CONTINUE THRU THE MEDIUM RANGE...AS MODELS SHOW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DOMINATING THE SOUTHEAST STATES THRU THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT...WHICH SHUD ALLOW TEMPS TO BE NOT AS HOT BY MIDWEEK. ALSO...MODELS SHOW A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT SAG SOUTH ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC TUE-WED...PERHAPS HELPING INCREASE CONVECTION COVERAGE BACK TO MID JUNE NORMALS. HOWEVER...BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ECWMF LIFT THE FRONT BACK NORTH BY THURSDAY...AS THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES AGAIN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. SO WHILE I HAVE GONE WITH THE SUPERBLEND POPS...THEY MAY BE OVERDONE GIVEN THE OP MODELS DEPICTION OF THE UPPER RIDGE FOR WED-FRI. ONE OTHER CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE HEAT INDEX...AS A SUBTLE INCREASE IN DEWPTS MAY ALLOW HEAT INDEX VALUES TO GET CLOSE TO THE 105 THRESHOLD FOR HEAT ADVISORY. THE LATEST WPC HEAT INDEX OUTLOOKS DO NOT HAVE THE 105F PROBS ABOVE 40% ANY DAY NEXT WEEK IN OUR AREA. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AT KCLT...WEAK CONVECTION OVER THE SRN NC FOOTHILLS LATE THIS EVENING SHOULD RUN OUT OF STEAM WELL WEST OF KCLT...SO NO FURTHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED AT KCLT. FLOW WILL REMAIN WSW TO SW EARLY...BECOMING MORE WNW WITH MIXING AFTER 14Z SATURDAY. PROFILES LOOK INCREASINGLY CAPPED TO CONVECTION ON SAT AFTN UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE SO NO CONVECTIVE CHANCES NEED BE ADVERTISED. DO NOT EXPECT A REPEAT OF THE BRIEF LOW STRATUS FROM THIS MORNING GIVEN THE MORE WESTERLY FLOW AND LESS NEARBY PRECIPITATION...BUT IT CANNOT BE RULED COMPLETELY OUT. ELSEWHERE...LINGERING SHRA JUST S OF KAVL SHOULD PULL AWAY TO THE EAST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SCT TO BKN VFR CLOUDS BECOMING FEW TO SCT OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE LIKELY IN THE MTNS VALLEYS...BUT THE TIMING AND DURATION REMAIN QUESTIONABLE...SO WILL ONLY TREND KAVL THAT WAY WITH 3SM BR AND SCT010 BY 08Z. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG/STRATUS IN THE FOOTHILLS TOWARD DAYBREAK...BUT IT SEEMS LESS LIKELY GIVEN THE LIMITED PRECIPITATION AND MORE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT FAIRLY CAPPED PROFILES UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE ON SAT...BUT WITH LOW END CONVECTIVE CHANCES BEST NEAR KAVL IN THE AFTN. FLOW WILL BE MORE WESTERLY AROUND THE RIDGE ON SAT. OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST IN A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTN TSRA ARE STILL POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE MTNS. MORNING RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG AND/OR STRATUS MAY OCCUR...PARTICULARLY WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL IN TSRA THE PREVIOUS DAY. CONFIDENCE TABLE... 02-08Z 08-14Z 14-20Z 20-00Z KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 95% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE) WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SBK NEAR TERM...HG SHORT TERM...ARK LONG TERM...ARK AVIATION...HG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
1113 AM MDT THU JUN 11 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 914 AM MDT THU JUN 11 2015 UPPER WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN SD/NE. STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS DRAPED OVER THE EASTERN WY BORDER...AND SURFACE HIGH IS PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTH. SHOWERS COVER MUCH OF WESTERN SD...WITH NORTHEAST WY FAIRLY DRY FOR NOW. DEBATED CANCELING THE WATCH...BUT HRRR AND NAM ARE SHOWING SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER WATCH AREA WITH MARGINAL CAPE AND WEAK SHEAR. MAY BE A HEAVY SHOWER OR STORM THERE THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL KEEP WATCH AS IS FOR NOW. EXPECT STRATIFORM PRECIP TO DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY AS HIGH MOVES IN. TEMPS ARE IN THE 50S...WITH EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. && .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ISSUED AT 326 AM MDT THU JUN 11 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE STORM SYSTEM NOW CROSSING ERN NEB...AND CONTINUING ITS NE TRACK. SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES ARE ALSO CROSSING ERN WY INTO SRN SD. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MOIST AND COOL ERLY FLOW ACROSS SD ALONG THE N/NW SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE CWA INTO NRN/CNTRL NEB. KUDX RADAR SHOWING WIDESPREAD SHRA ACROSS NE AND MUCH OF WRN SD. SHRA WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...BUT RAINFALL RATES GENERALLY BE LIGHT TO MODERATE AT LEAST THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE FOCUS OF PRECIP WILL HAVE A S/SEWD DRIFT AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING SHIFTS INTO NEB. COULD STILL SEE STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON OVER NE WY AND THE BLKHLS AREA. WITH STORM MOTIONS STILL FORECAST TO BE VERY SLOW...WILL KEEP THE FFA GOING. HOWEVER A GENERAL DECREASE IN PRECIP OVERALL IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTN AS HIGH PRES/SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN. PRECIP SHOULD END AREAWIDE THIS EVNG. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S TODAY...AND LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A MUCH QUIETER DAY IS EXPECTED FRIDAY. SUNSHINE WILL RETURN TO MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH SOME CLOUDS STILL LINGERING OVER PORTIONS OF NE WY AND SW SD. AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS TO THE AREA...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 70S. .LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ISSUED AT 326 AM MDT THU JUN 11 2015 UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TO THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTS THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES ALOFT. PERIODIC SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS US/CANADIAN BORDER DRAGGING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. .AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT THU JUN 11 2015 SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY...BUT COVERAGE WILL DECREASE SLOWLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL OCCUR WITH DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/UPSLOPE FLOW. AREAS IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL OCCUR WITH PRECIPITATION. LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO ST/FG EXPECTED OVER/NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 1108 AM MDT THU JUN 11 2015 -RA WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS AFTN...BUT SOME SCT TSRA MAY DEVELOP ESPECIALLY ACRS NERN WY INTO THE BLKHLS. WDSPRD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL ALSO SLOWLY DISSIPATE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH ALL BUT FAR SRN SD BECOMING VFR BY AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. LCL IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY TSRA THAT DEVELOP. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ024>029-041- 072-074. WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ054>058-071. && $$ UPDATE...POJORLIE SHORT TERM...13 LONG TERM...HELGESON AVIATION...JOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
918 AM MDT THU JUN 11 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 914 AM MDT THU JUN 11 2015 UPPER WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN SD/NE. STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS DRAPED OVER THE EASTERN WY BORDER...AND SURFACE HIGH IS PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTH. SHOWERS COVER MUCH OF WESTERN SD...WITH NORTHEAST WY FAIRLY DRY FOR NOW. DEBATED CANCELING THE WATCH...BUT HRRR AND NAM ARE SHOWING SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER WATCH AREA WITH MARGINAL CAPE AND WEAK SHEAR. MAY BE A HEAVY SHOWER OR STORM THERE THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL KEEP WATCH AS IS FOR NOW. EXPECT STRATIFORM PRECIP TO DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY AS HIGH MOVES IN. TEMPS ARE IN THE 50S...WITH EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. && .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ISSUED AT 326 AM MDT THU JUN 11 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE STORM SYSTEM NOW CROSSING ERN NEB...AND CONTINUING ITS NE TRACK. SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES ARE ALSO CROSSING ERN WY INTO SRN SD. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MOIST AND COOL ERLY FLOW ACROSS SD ALONG THE N/NW SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE CWA INTO NRN/CNTRL NEB. KUDX RADAR SHOWING WIDESPREAD SHRA ACROSS NE AND MUCH OF WRN SD. SHRA WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...BUT RAINFALL RATES GENERALLY BE LIGHT TO MODERATE AT LEAST THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE FOCUS OF PRECIP WILL HAVE A S/SEWD DRIFT AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING SHIFTS INTO NEB. COULD STILL SEE STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON OVER NE WY AND THE BLKHLS AREA. WITH STORM MOTIONS STILL FORECAST TO BE VERY SLOW...WILL KEEP THE FFA GOING. HOWEVER A GENERAL DECREASE IN PRECIP OVERALL IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTN AS HIGH PRES/SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN. PRECIP SHOULD END AREAWIDE THIS EVNG. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S TODAY...AND LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A MUCH QUIETER DAY IS EXPECTED FRIDAY. SUNSHINE WILL RETURN TO MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH SOME CLOUDS STILL LINGERING OVER PORTIONS OF NE WY AND SW SD. AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS TO THE AREA...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 70S. .LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ISSUED AT 326 AM MDT THU JUN 11 2015 UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TO THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTS THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES ALOFT. PERIODIC SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS US/CANADIAN BORDER DRAGGING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. .AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT THU JUN 11 2015 SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY...BUT COVERAGE WILL DECREASE SLOWLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL OCCUR WITH DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/UPSLOPE FLOW. AREAS IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL OCCUR WITH PRECIPITATION. LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO ST/FG EXPECTED OVER/NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR SDZ024>029-041-072- 074. WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR WYZ054>058-071. && $$ UPDATE...POJORLIE SHORT TERM...13 LONG TERM...HELGESON AVIATION...HELGESON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
1042 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 .DISCUSSION... THE FORECAST GENERALLY LOOKS ON TRACK THIS MORNING...BUT A FEW TWEAKS WILL BE MADE FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. THE HRRR DEVELOPS SHOWERS OVER THE SMOKIES AND SW NC IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH A NE MOVEMENT THAT TAKES THEM INTO THE VALLEY. WILL ADJUST POPS A LITTLE IN THIS DIRECTION. CURRENT OBS TEMPS ARE WARMER THAN FORECAST...AND WILL BUMP UP HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO IN SOME SPOTS. THE TYS ASOS APPEARS TO BE RUNNING WARM FOR TEMP AND DEWPOINT...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION AND REPORT FOR MAINTENANCE IF IT PERSISTS. && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1210 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 .DISCUSSION... UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 833 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015/ UPDATE... NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. DISCUSSION... VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MID SOUTH THIS EVENING...BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW MENTIONABLE POP LEVELS. IN FACT...A LONE STORM NEAR BARTLETT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD AND MAY PRODUCE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. MODERATE AMOUNTS OF THERMODYNAMIC INSTABILITY STILL REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE MID SOUTH THIS EVENING WITH MLCAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 2000 J/KG. THEREFORE...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WITH LESS THAN 10 PERCENT COVERAGE. THE CURRENT FORECAST MAINTAINS SILENT POPS THIS EVENING AND NOT PLANNING ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME BASED UPON CURRENT COVERAGE. PLAN TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. JLH PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015/ TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER WEATHER HAS SET IN ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S...HEAT INDICES WERE BETWEEN ONE AND THREE DEGREES WARMER IN MOST SPOTS. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 BUT DRY AIR ALOFT IS LIMITING THEIR DEVELOPMENT. FOR TONIGHT...WILL GO WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR FORECAST. BOTH THE HRRR AND RAP SHOW RAIN FREE CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON DISSIPATING BY SUNSET. HOWEVER...WILL MONITOR IN CASE STORMS DO DEVELOP MORE THAN ANTICIPATED THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF COASTAL STATES WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW INCREASING MOISTURE TO PUSH INTO THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE SOUTHEAST. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...SIMILAR TO TODAY PERHAPS A DEGREE LESS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH MS. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST. SOUTHERLY FLOW SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL CAUSE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCES ONCE AGAIN AS YOU GO SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERED SOME BY MORE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED CONVECTION. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND...AND PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL OCCUR. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE BETTER CHANCES MAY GRADUALLY SHIFT TO ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER AS THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO THE EAST. IN ADDITION...WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY AFFECT AREAS ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER. JCL && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF CYCLE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ONLY UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES AROUND TS CHANCES ON THURSDAY AS AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN...PERHAPS MORE WIDESPREAD THAN TODAY...NEAR TUP. HAVE CONTINUED THE TEMPO GROUP FOR THIS CHANCE WITH THIS TAF SET. TVT && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. MO...NONE. MS...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
916 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015 .UPDATE... PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH CONTINUES TO PUSH MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS TONIGHT... WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A SECOND SURGE OF MOISTURE ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY NOW REACHING THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. HI-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN UPTICK IN STREAMER SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THIS SURGE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING AND CURRENT FORECAST HANDLES THIS PERIOD WELL. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE IS MUCH LOWER IN TERMS OF COVERAGE WHEN COMPARED TO OTHER HI-RES GUIDANCE FOR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING HOWEVER. GIVEN EXTREMELY MOIST ENVIRONMENT /THE 00Z LAKE CHARLES SOUNDING MEASURING A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.94 INCHES/ AND THE CONTINUED RETROGRADE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION... MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT POPS/WEATHER GRIDS BUT ADDED HEAVY RAIN MENTION ESSENTIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN ANGLETON TO CLEVELAND LINE. OTHERWISE... INCREASING CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND ELEVATED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW MORNINGS WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. FOR THE MARINE FORECAST... WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EARLY. BUOY 42019 /60 MILES SOUTH OF FREEPORT/ IS ALREADY REPORTING 8 FOOT SEAS. HUFFMAN && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015/ DISCUSSION... SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. AVIATION... AN INFLUX OF VERY MOIST AIR WILL KEEP SHRA/TSRA IN FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SHRA/TSRA WILL REDEVELOP NEAR THE COAST PRIOR TO 06Z AND SPREAD INLAND. PW VALUES REMAIN ABOVE 2.00 INCHES ON SATURDAY WILL CARRY VCSH/VCTS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. CONSIDERABLY STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE COAST ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND MAINTAINED A GUST GROUP AT KGLS. CIGS WILL BE LOW VFR AND HIGH END MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH VFR CONDS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. 43 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015/ DISCUSSION... RADAR SHOWS SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SE TX WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER CYPRESS IN NW HARRIS CO. GOES SATELLITE DERIVED PRECIP WATER VALUES NOW UP TO AROUND 1.9 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH WILL LIMIT RAIN RATES TONIGHT GOING TOMORROW. OVERALL TRENDS IN SHORT RANGE FORECAST LOOK ON TRACK WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. GIVEN THE WEAKNESS IN UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING NOW BACK OVER MEXICO...THERE IS A GOOD CHANNEL FOR DEEP MOISTURE TO FLOW NORTH INTO TX AND THE PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS NOW WILL HELP KEEP RIDGING FROM BUILDING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. PRECIP WATER VALUES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 2-2.2 INCHES THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. THE 2.2 INCHES OF PRECIP WATER IS RIGHT AT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL OR 99TH PERCENTILE FOR JUNE BASED ON CRP/LCH SOUNDINGS. GIVEN THIS HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND THEN LIKELY SLOW MOVING STORMS...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE AREA MAINLY OVER E TX THIS WEEKEND. THIS MAY SHIFT TO ALONG THE COAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT WEST. GIVEN RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS THE LAST 10 DAYS OR SO...MOST AREAS CAN HANDLE A GOOD 5 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN SO NOT LOOKING AT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW. HOWEVER THESE KINDS OF RAIN AMOUNTS CAN BE REALIZED WITH THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS EXPECTED SO WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR SUN-TUE FOR POSSIBLE WATCH. OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK LIKE 2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG THE COAST WITH ISO 6 INCH AMOUNTS MAINLY FOR LIBERTY/CHAMBERS COUNTIES. SE HARRIS AND GALVESTON COULD BE RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF HIGHER RAINFALL FOR SUN/MON. THE OTHER CONCERN THAT THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF ARE NOW RESOLVING IS A POSSIBLE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE NW GULF TUE/WED. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM THAN THE ECMWF BUT BOTH MODELS HAVE A WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPING AND THEN MOVING TO THE LOWER TX COAST ON TUE. THIS REALLY OPEN UP VERY DEEP MOIST FLOW FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND INTO SE TX. ENHANCED MID LEVEL FLOW WILL ONLY INCREASE THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THAT TIME. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL STILL BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH FOR SOME WEAK SHEAR OVER ANY TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AS ANOTHER TROUGH DIPS INTO TX AND THIS TROUGH WILL HELP STEER THE DISTURBANCE INLAND ACROSS SE TX DURING THE WED TIME FRAME. SO FAR THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND IF A SYSTEM LIKE THIS DOES MATERIALIZE THEN FLASH FLOOD WATCHES WILL BE NEEDED. MAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THAT THE ECMWF STILL BUILDS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE N GULF AND INTO TX WED THROUGH NEXT FRI. GFS STILL HOLDS ONTO DEEP MOIST FLOW AND SOME RAIN CHANCES. OVERALL HOLD ONTO SOME RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK AS RIDGE MAY BE WEAKER THAN THE ECMWF SUGGESTS BUT COULD BE STRONGER THAN THE GFS THINKS. 39 MARINE... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO SHEAR OUT OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. AS IT DOES...THE SYSTEM/S MOISTURE AXIS WILL MOVE OVER THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS AND BAYS AND PROVIDE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS ARE ALSO INCREASING THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT AND THEN AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT. A COMBINATION OF SWELLS AND WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL LEAD TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CAUTION TO ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER AT LEAST THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. TIDE LEVELS WILL REACH TO ABOUT 0.5 TO 1.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AND MAY RISE TO BETWEEN 1 AND 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE BIGGEST FORESEEN IMPACT WILL BE DURING THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE ON SATURDAY ALONG THE GULF FACING BEACHES OF THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA - WAVE RUN-UP MAY COMBINE WITH THE ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDE TO GENERATE SOME MINOR FLOODING AT THAT TIME. SLIGHTLY BETTER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER THIS WILL BE PARTIALLY DEPENDENT UPON THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. 40 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 75 88 74 88 73 / 10 40 30 60 30 HOUSTON (IAH) 76 86 75 87 74 / 50 70 40 60 50 GALVESTON (GLS) 81 86 79 86 78 / 60 80 60 70 60 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM. && $$ DISCUSSION...14 AVIATION/MARINE...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
912 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2015 .DISCUSSION... Line of isolated showers and thunderstorms extended along a Sweetwater...Robert Lee...San Angelo...Sonora line at 9 AM, moving east around 20 mph. High resolution HRRR model indicates scattered showers and thunderstorms to move east across the Big Country tonight, with the main focus of storm development over Haskell, Throckmorton and Shackelford counties after midnight. This development is indicated as a larger storm complex with a better cold pool, in the Lamesa and Lubbock areas, moves east. Expect to keep likely rain chances in the Big Country tonight, but may lower pops south of the Big Country down to 20 percent later this evening, with loss of daytime heating. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2015/ AVIATION... /00Z TAFS/ Look for MVFR ceilings to return tonight. Models indicate stratus will return later tonight, with ceilings in the MVFR range. Thunderstorms may develop tonight as well; however, confidence regrading location and timing is too low to add any weather to the terminals this cycle. Expect VFR conditions to return to all terminals around noon tomorrow. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2015/ SHORT TERM... (Tonight and Saturday) Visible satellite and regional radars indicating scattered storms developing along a surface trough along the Texas/New Mexico state line, and across the Trans Pecos and Big Bend Region. Some storms have the potential to become severe as they move east across the South Plains and Permian Basin due to moderate instability and modest 0-6km shear. However, most of the activity should remain west of West Central Texas through early this evening. The only exception is possibly western Crockett County. Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage across much of West Central Texas after 7 PM. The high res models, including HRRR, Tx Tech WRF and ARW are indicating and MCS developing across the Northwest Texas and western Oklahoma. The complex of storms will move east-southeast into the Big Country later this evening and tonight, and going with likely to categorical Pops. Further south, scattered thunderstorms are a good bet across the Concho Valley and Heartland and less rain chances along the I-10 corridor. A few strong to severe storms are possible through mid evening, along and west of a Haskell to Sweetwater to Ozona line. The main hazards will be large hail and damaging winds. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible due to PW values of 1.5 to 1.75 inches. For Saturday, look for a break across much of our area. Looks like the best setup for thunderstorms and possible severe weather will be west of our area, as moderate instability values and some 0-6km shear will exist. However, will keep chance Pops going across the Big Country with slight chance elsewhere. Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. 21 LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Friday) A rather unsettled weather pattern will exist for much of the next week across West Central TX. A moist environment, with little to no cap, will support diurnal convection. However, the lack of a strong forcing mechanism, will result in disorganized afternoon and evening storms, limiting the overall coverage. For this reason, PoPs remain in the 20-30% percent range for most periods. Better rain chances will depend on mesoscale features that are typically poorly handled more than 24-36 hrs out. Synoptically speaking, a slow-moving shortwave trough will move across the southern Plains through early next week. The main wave will continue off to the east, but is progged to leave a "weakness" in the mid-level ridge over the Lone Star State. Weak forcing for ascent associated with this feature will continue the rain chances through at least Wednesday. Abundant moisture, with precipitable water values near 1.50", will prevail during this period. While precipitation coverage should remain limited for the most part, high melting levels and moist air will yield efficient warm rain processes. There remains some disagreement between the ECMWF and GFS regarding how quickly this weakness will fill, with the ridge expanding across the area once again. The ECMWF maintains the unsettled pattern through the work-week while the GFS is a bit quicker building the ridge. These differences are expected to be ironed out in the coming days. Temperatures will remain near to just above climo through early next week with highs in the lower 90s and lows in the lower 70s. A very slight cool-down is anticipated by midweek, but temperatures will still be in the neighborhood of climatology. Johnson && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 73 90 73 90 72 / 60 30 30 30 30 San Angelo 74 93 73 92 71 / 40 20 30 20 30 Junction 74 92 73 91 72 / 20 20 20 20 20 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
637 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015 .DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL MUCH OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS DAYTIME HEATING ENDS AND THE CUMULUS FIELD DISSIPATES. INCREASING GULF MOISTURE AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST WIND TO ALLOW FOR STREAMER SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS WILL BE DIRECTED TOWARDS THE LOWER AND MID RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND MAY DIRECTLY IMPACT THE THREE TERMINALS. PROBABILITIES ARE LOW BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO AT MENTION VICINITY SHOWERS AT KBRO AT THIS TIME. LATER TAF PACKAGES MAY NEED TO ADD VCSH TO KHRL AND KMFE. THERE MAY BE A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH STREAMER SHOWERS. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND TO PERSIST TONIGHT INCREASING SATURDAY GUSTING 20-25 KNOTS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015/ SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...IN THE IMMEDIATE TERM THE SEABREEZE ACTIVATED EARLIER THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG IT MOVING NORTHWESTWARD. TAKING A LOOK AT THE HRRR AND RAP BOTH MODELS KEEP THIS ACTIVITY GOING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS THEN DISSIPATING AROUND SUNSET AS THE SEABREEZE AND FORCING WEAKENS. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY LIGHTNING AND HAS BEEN ISOLATED IN NATURE AND PROGRESSING NORTHWESTWARD SO AMOUNTS OF ONE QUARTER INCH OR LESS. THE ATMOSPHERE IS FAIRLY DRY IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WITH MOST MOISTURE CENTERED AT 850MB AND BELOW. PWATS ON THE 12Z SOUNDING WERE 1.85 INCHES HERE AT BRO. ONCE THE SUN GOES DOWN THE FORCING WEAKENS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES GO DOWN TO AROUND 10% WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GULF WATERS WHERE CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE BECOMING A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY OVERNIGHT AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S. SATURDAY WILL BE A REPEAT OF TODAY JUST WITH A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE I EXPECT TO SEE WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND HAVE RAISED POP CHANCES TO CHANCE ALONG THE SEABREEZE AND TRACKED THAT POP CHANCE INLAND AFT 18Z CORRESPONDING TO THE MOVEMENT OF THE SEABREEZE. MAY EVEN EXPERIENCE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN RIO GRANDE RIVER AREA IN ZAPATA COUNTY BY SUNSET. ANOTHER HOT AND MUGGY DAY IN STORE WITH HEAT INDICIES OR FEELS LIKE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 100S. LONG TERM.../SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...STILL CONTINUING TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WHICH MOVES SLOWLY TOWARDS THE WEST. THIS LOW WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY PENETRATING THE LAST OF THE DEEP DRY AIR WHICH HANGS ON ABOVE THE 700 MB LEVEL THROUGH SUNDAY AS SUBSIDENCE HOLDS. WEAK UPPER TROUGH SLIDING INTO NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY EVENING DOES LITTLE MORE THAN MAINTAIN GUSTY SOUTHEAST FLOW WHICH IS GENERALLY NOT CONDUCIVE TO PRECIP AFTER MIDDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 77...IF MORNING CONVECTION DEVELOPS. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR POPS REMAIN OVER THE GULF WATERS AND COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH MONDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES SHOW UP SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH THE GFS HOLDING EXPANDING RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WITH A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ECMWF IS NOT DETECTING A STRONG LOW LIKE THE GFS AT THIS TIME. THE MAIN IMPACTS AT THIS TIME WILL BE THE INCREASE OF A MORE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER POPS OFFSHORE. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE CONTENT IS DEPICTED IN THE MODELS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2.14 INCHES WITH MORE DEEPER MOISTURE EVEN UP TO 700 MB. THIS WILL RESULT IN GREATER POTENTIAL FOR RAIN ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HAVE FOCUSED HIGHEST CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS LIKELY TO BE SPREAD INTO TUESDAY AND PERHAPS THURSDAY AS THINGS EVOLVED. BELIEVE THE ECMWF IS A BIT TOO QUICK TO SHOVE THE DEEPER MOISTURE TOWARD THE SIERRA MADRE NEXT THURSDAY SO HELD ONTO 50/50 CHANCES FOR THE TIME BEING. THE SENSIBLE WEATHER RESULT WOULD BE POCKETS OF NUISANCE URBAN-TYPE FLOODING BUT NO WIDESPREAD RAIN DUMPS...EVEN THOUGH EVERYONE LIKELY TO END UP WITH 1-2 INCHES AS A BASELINE BETWEEN MONDAY AND NEXT FRIDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...ONLY A FEW TWEAKS MAINLY TO NUDGE AFTERNOON VALUES DOWN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NEXT WEEK WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN COVERAGE. MARINE....NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 13 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 17 KNOTS WITH SEAS OF 3.6 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 6 SECONDS AT 14 CDT/19 UTC. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL INTERACT WITH LOWER PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS RESULTING IN MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT AND ACROSS ALL LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE GULF WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...RAIN CHANCES ARE ON THE INCREASE AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS WEST INTO THE GULF WATERS. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK AS IT MOVES SLOWLY. BOTH MODELS ARE DEPICTING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH ASSOCIATED WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS IN THE NEXT MODELS RUNS BUT MAINLY WILL BRING GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH INCREASE SE WINDS. SEAS AS A RESULT WILL BUILD DUE TO THE LONG SE FETCH OVER THE GULF WATERS. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 6 TO 8 FEET FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. SCA ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV 59...AVIATION/SHORT TERM 64...LONG TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
338 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED TROUGHS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA...THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND FROM NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...WHILE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WAS PRESENT OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.. THE TROUGHING JUST TO OUR WEST IS COMPOSED OF MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES...EACH OF WHICH HAS PROVIDED DYNAMIC FORCING AND SURGES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO DRIVE PRECIPITATION ACROSS IOWA INTO THE FORECAST AREA. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE EXISTS FOR THE PRECIPITATION NOTED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA PER RAP ANALYSIS...HIGHEST IN IOWA. THE ONE THING NOT WORKING IN OUR FAVOR FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS INSTABILITY. THE MAIN WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STUCK NEAR I-80 DUE TO COOL AIR OUTFLOW FROM THE SHOWERS TO THE NORTH. ALL OF THE CAPE AS SEEN ON SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE RESIDES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS HAS BEEN TOO FAR SOUTH TO ALLOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDERSTORM GENERATION IN OUR FORECAST AREA...KEEPING PRECIPITATION RATES MUCH LOWER. REGARDING THE COOL OUTFLOW...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN STUCK MOST OF THE DAY FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. TO THE NORTHWEST...MUCH DRIER AIR WAS NOTED FROM NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MN WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS 0.75-1 INCH. AS A RESULT...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY THERE. SOME BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY DUE TO 3 REASONS... 1. WARM FRONT REMAINING STUCK NEAR I-80 HOLDING INSTABILITY FROM MOVING NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA. 2. TROUGH FROM SOUTHERN MN INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA MOVING EAST QUICKER. 3. A LINEAR MCS EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTH OF OMAHA SHORTLY...WHICH THEN TRACKS EAST AND INTERCEPTS MUCH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. RAP AND HRRR MODEL RUNS THROUGHOUT THE DAY HAVE BEEN CONTINUOUSLY BACKING OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION OUR FORECAST AREA WOULD SEE THROUGH TONIGHT...AS A RESULT OF THE 3 ITEMS ABOVE. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN FOLLOWING SUIT...THUS CAUSING CANCELLATIONS TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. THERE STILL IS POTENTIAL THIS EVENING FOR THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE LINEAR MCS TO LIFT THROUGH EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...BROUGHT UP AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THUS...HAVE LEFT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. HOWEVER...IF IT LOOKS LIKE THIS EVENING THE LINEAR MCS WILL STAY ON AN EASTWARD TRACK...THEN THE WATCH CAN BE DROPPED. 11.12Z NAM/ECMWF/GFS HAVE ALSO FOLLOW SUIT WITH THE FASTER EXIT OF PRECIPITATION SUCH THAT ALL THREE BASICALLY HAVE THE FORECAST AREA DRIED OUT AT 12Z FRI...EXCEPT MAYBE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH A FEW HOURS LATER. HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO FOLLOW SUIT AND SPED UP THE EXIT OF PRECIPITATION. WE MAY NEED TO EVEN SPEED IT UP MORE. ALONG WITH THE SPEED UP OF THE TROUGH COMES A QUICKER ENTRANCE OF THE DRIER AIR EVIDENT ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MN. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER NORTH OF I-90 DROPS BELOW 1 INCH. THUS...WE SHOULD SEE A CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THE DRIER AIR MEANS BETTER MIXING...THUS ALSO BOOSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES NORTH OF I-90. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 FRIDAY NIGHT INTO MUCH OF SATURDAY STILL LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH THE AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER...STARTING TO SEE SOME CHANGES IN THE MODEL RUNS TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IN THE 11.12Z ECMWF. AS A RESULT...CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN INCREASED...TEMPERATURES LOWERED SLIGHTLY...AND HAVE BROUGHT IN SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR NORTHEAST IOWA. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY STILL LOOKS INTERESTING WITH ALL MODELS WANTING TO BRING A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CURRENT UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WE SEE A DECENT SURGE OF BOTH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND 1.5-2 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. THE QUESTION IS GOING TO BE THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SHORTWAVE AND THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. THERE REMAINS A GOOD AMOUNT OF SPREAD BETWEEN THE 11.12Z NAM...ECMWF...GFS AND CANADIAN ON THE TRACK...BUT THEY ALL DEPICT SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS AFFECTING THE AREA. THEREFORE...STILL MAINTAINED 50-70 PERCENT CHANCES BUT QPF IS NOT TOO HIGH YET. IF THE LAST MANY RUNS OF THE ECMWF ARE RIGHT...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT 1 TO LOCALLY 2 INCHES. LUCKILY WE HAVE ALMOST 2 DAYS TO DRY OUT FROM THE CURRENT RAIN...PLUS WE ARE NOT ENDING UP WITH AS MUCH OUT OF THE CURRENT RAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL GO UP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MAKING IT FEEL MORE STICKY. HARD TO DISCERN SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME...THOUGH. THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY IN BRITISH COLUMBIA IS PROGGED BY MODELS TO SWEEP ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE APPEARS TO BE A TREND IN MODELS FOR THIS TROUGH TO HAVE MAYBE A LITTLE BIT MORE INFLUENCE ON US...DRIVING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN BEHIND IT FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. GIVEN THIS TREND DEVELOPING...HAVE CUT BACK ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THESE DAYS AND WE MAY EVENTUALLY BE ABLE TO GO ENTIRELY DRY IF TRENDS CONTINUE. 850MB TEMPS IN THE 10- 14C RANGE PLUS DRY AIR SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S. THE 11.00Z/12Z ECMWF/GFS STILL POINT TO A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH MAYBE SOME HINTS TOWARDS RIDGING AS WE APPROACH LATE THU FROM TROUGHING DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HARD TO TIME RIGHT NOW SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THIS ZONAL FLOW...BUT IT APPEARS THERE COULD BE ONE COMING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WITH A SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM RISK. ANOTHER RISK COULD COME IN BY LATE THURSDAY. THEREFORE...THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO DEPICT 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 LATEST FORECAST TRENDS ARE TO TAKE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL SOUTH OF TAF AIRFIELDS. INSTABILITY IS WEAK SO THAT ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO IA INTO SOUTHERN WI AND NORTHERN IL. AS A RESULT...REMOVED ALL THUNDER MENTION AT BOTH KRST/KLSE AND IMPROVED VISIBILITIES BY A MILE OR TWO...ALTHOUGH REDUCTIONS TO 1 SM STILL POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE TO WARRANT MVFR/IFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH RAIN SHOULD EXIT A BIT EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS AROUND THE MIDNIGHT HOUR. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR REDUCED VISIBILITY IF FOG/MIST OVERNIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTING AT TIMES IN THE LOWER TO MID 20 KT RANGE WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 THE FIRST WAVE OF PRECIPITATION SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS EXPECTED...BRINGING ANYWHERE FROM 1/3 TO A LITTLE OVER 1 INCH OF RAINFALL...HEAVIEST IN FAR SOUTHWEST WI. THE SECOND WAVE OF PRECIPITATION...WHICH THE PAST FEW DAYS LOOKED TO SET UP FROM SOUTHEAST MN INTO CENTRAL WI...NOW LOOKS TO TRACK WELL TO THE SOUTH ALONG/SOUTH OF I-80. ADDITIONALLY...THE SECOND WAVE OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE EAST QUICKER. THEREFORE...THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LOWERED...NOW ONLY AN ADDITIONAL 1/2 TO 1.5 INCHES...HIGHEST FROM EASTERN IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL WI. WITH THE LOWER TOTALS...RIVERS DO NOT LOOK NEARLY AS CONCERNING FOR FLOODING. MAY STILL NEED TO WATCH BASINS SUCH AS THE KICKAPOO AND TURKEY GIVEN THEY LOOK TO PICK UP THE MOST RAINFALL. LOOKING AHEAD...ANOTHER 1 TO LOCALLY 2 INCHES COULD FALL SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LESSER RAINFALL FROM TODAY AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY TO SATURDAY FOR WATER TO FLOW DOWNSTREAM...WE MAY BE ABLE TO ABSORB THE RAIN. STILL SOMETHING TO WATCH...THOUGH. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WIZ053>055-061. FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR WIZ042>044. MN...NONE. IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR IAZ011-029-030. && $$ SHORT TERM...AJ LONG TERM...AJ AVIATION...ROGERS HYDROLOGY...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1132 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015 ...SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAIN EVENT WITH FLOODING POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE THU... CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED IN THE NORTHERN STREAM NORTHWEST FLOW FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE GREAT LAKES...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOTED IN EASTERN WASHINGTON. MEANWHILE...IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM AN UPPER TROUGH WAS PRESENT OVER CALIFORNIA WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO NEBRASKA. WITHIN THAT SOUTHWEST FLOW...SHORTWAVES OF NOTE WERE OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH. BOTH SHORTWAVES ARE GENERATING CONVECTION OVER COLORADO. CONDITIONS ARE QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH A NOSE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. A DRY AIRMASS AS DEPICTED ON THE 12Z MPX SOUNDING...REFLECTED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 0.67 INCHES...HAS ALLOWED FOR DEEP MIXING AGAIN...PUSHING DEWPOINTS DOWN AS LOW AS THE UPPER 40S IN SOME SPOTS. WITH 925MB TEMPS OF 19C NORTH TO 22C SOUTH AND PLENTY OF SUN...TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. TO OUR SOUTH...THE COLD FRONT FROM LAST NIGHT HAS STALLED JUST SOUTH OF I-80. A MUCH MORE HUMID AIRMASS EXISTS SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND 850MB DEWPOINTS OF 10-14C. MODELS PROG THE TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT TO LIFT OUT...WHICH ALLOWS SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM TO IMPACT THE AREA BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST FOR THE SHORT TERM IS IN NORTHEAST COLORADO. AS THIS SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO NEBRASKA TONIGHT...DPVA FROM IT COMBINED WITH A STRONG INCREASE IN THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD FIRE AN MCS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA. AN IMPORTANT POINT HERE TO NOTE...WHERE THIS MCS TRACKS TONIGHT LOOKS TO HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS IN HOW OUR HEAVY RAIN SETS UP FOR THU/THU NIGHT AND POSSIBLE SEVERE CHANCES THU EVENING. THIS IS NICELY SEEN IN 10.03Z AND 10.09Z SREF MEMBERS...AS WELL AS AMONGST RUN TO RUN TRENDS OF DETERMINISTIC MODELS. THE 10.12Z NAM WANTS TO TRACK THE MCS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST MN BY 18Z THU. HOWEVER...FOLLOWING MORE OF A NORMAL CORFIDI TO FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTOR APPROACH...THE MCS SHOULD MOVE MORE EAST WHICH IS NICELY REFLECTED IN THE 10.00Z NSSL WRF...10.12Z GFS/REGIONAL CANADIAN. A MORE EASTWARD APPROACH KEEPS THE CURRENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN SOUTHERN IA FROM LIFTING AS FAR NORTH...WHICH IN TURN WOULD HELP SET UP THE STRONG FRONTOGENESIS ZONE THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY FARTHER SOUTH. WHILE THAT MCS IS DEVELOPING TONIGHT...A WARM ADVECTION WING OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER SHOULD FORM OVER IOWA OVERNIGHT AND LIFT NORTH INTO SECTIONS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WING OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH ON THURSDAY...WITH THE PRECIPITATION EXPANDING OVERALL AS THE SHORTWAVE IN NEBRASKA MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONALLY...PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOOTS UP TO AROUND 2 INCHES IN THE AFTERNOON...PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR THE SHORTWAVE TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION AND EVEN HEAVY AT THAT. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL ACT TO SATURATE THE SOILS...PRECONDITIONING THEM FOR FLOODING PERHAPS AS EARLY AS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THURSDAY COULD BE QUITE THE RAW DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...EXCEPT SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 18. NORTH OF THE FRONT...A BRISK NORTHEAST WIND DRAWING IN LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL ALLOW FOR WET-BULBING. COOLED HIGHS A BIT AS A RESULT. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015 ...FLOODING AND OTHER SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT... THURSDAY NIGHT REMAINS THE MAJOR FOCUS FOR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS. THERE REMAINS STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THE CURRENT UTAH SHORTWAVE TO COME ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT...PHASING AS WELL WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY IN EASTERN WASHINGTON. THE WHOLE SITUATION LOOKS SO SIMILAR TO A WINTER SYNOPTIC STORM SYSTEM...EXCEPT THIS IS SUMMER AND WERE DEALING WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 2 INCHES AND UNSTABLE AIR. ALL MODELS SHOW A JET COUPLING SCENARIO WITH A STRONG FRONTOGENESIS/FRONTOLYSIS ZONE SETTING UP. THE CIRCULATION WILL LIKELY PICK UP INSTABILITY FROM THE SOUTH...CAUSING THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ON THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONTOGENESIS AND FRONTOLYSIS. THIS ZONE HAS DEFINITELY DRIFTED SOUTH IN THE ENTIRE 10.12Z MODEL GUIDANCE... WITH A CONSENSUS ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL RUNS SUCH AS THE DOWNSCALED NAM ARE PRODUCING AS MUCH AS 4 TO 7 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL IN THE FRONTOGENESIS ZONE. HOWEVER...ITS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THIS AXIS MAY SHIFT NORTH OR SOUTH. AS A RESULT...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUED ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE AXIS. ITS POSSIBLE THE WATCH MAY NEED A TIER OF COUNTIES EXPANSION SOUTHWARD...PARTICULARLY IF THE 10.12Z REGIONAL CANADIAN PANS OUT. MORE ON THE HYDROLOGY IMPACTS BELOW IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION. BESIDES FLOODING...THERE IS ALSO A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF US HIGHWAY 18. DURING THE EVENING HOURS...THE WARM FRONT MAY LIFT AS FAR NORTH AS THAT HIGHWAY...AS SUGGESTED IN THE 10.12Z CANADIAN/ECMWF/NAM. IF SO...THE ENVIRONMENT HAS VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR ROTATING STORMS AND EVEN TORNADOES. THE PROBLEM MAY BE THE CAPE WHICH IS MUCH HIGHER TO THE SOUTH NEAR I-80. THUS THE SLIGHT RISK ON SPCS DAY 2 OUTLOOK. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO DEPART THE PRECIPITATION QUICKER ON FRIDAY...IN RESPONSE TO THE PHASED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION AND BRINGING IN SUBSIDENCE. FOLLOWED SUIT BUT DID KEEP SOME LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE 10.12Z ECMWF/GFS LINGERING AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER WESTERN WI. CLOUDS STILL MAY TAKE AWHILE TO CLEAR...THOUGH...GIVEN SUBSIDENCE AND TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THESE CLOUDS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN. MOST OF THE CLEARING SHOULD START TO OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF I-90. FOR THE WEEKEND...MUCH OF SATURDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY WITH THE AREA DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACTIVE WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE PUSHED SOUTH TOWARDS I-70. HOWEVER...FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY ROLL BACK INTO THE REGION. THESE ARE CAUSED BY A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE AREA...BRINGING THE WARM FRONT AND THE MOIST...UNSTABLE GULF OF MEXICO AIR WITH IT. STILL SOME DISAGREEMENTS WITH THE MODELS ON THE CONVECTION...BUT THE 10.12Z CANADIAN/ECMWF BOTH WANT TO BRING A STRIPE OF 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WOULD ONLY EXACERBATE ANY RIVER FLOODING. SOMETHING TO WATCH...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ECMWF CONSISTENCY. THE 10.12Z GFS HAS TRENDED A BIT MORE WET AS WELL. MAY NEED TO ALSO WATCH SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL AS THE ECMWF SHOWS DECENT 0- 6KM/0-3KM SHEAR. NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO FEATURE MOSTLY A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. UNTIL ABOUT MIDWEEK WHEN TROUGHING FORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. TO BUMP UP RIDGING DOWNSTREAM. THE TRICK IS TIMING SHORTWAVES THROUGH THIS FLOW THAT CAN HELP TRIGGER SHOWERS AND STORMS. RIGHT NOW THE GFS/CANADIAN AND ECMWF DO NOT AGREE AT ALL ON WHEN...THUS THE FORECAST BROAD-BRUSHES 20 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCES. WITH THE HIGH ZONAL FLOW...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS...AND BRIEF HUMID PERIODS AS SHORTWAVES PULL THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT BUT WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING AND LIFTING NORTHWARD OUT OF CENTRAL IOWA. AT THIS TIME...THINKING IS THAT THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL HOLD OFF AT THE TAF SITES UNTIL THE 14-15 Z TIMEFRAME. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS ARRIVING EARLIER BUT THE MAIN FORCING FOR THE STORMS IS FOCUSED FURTHER TO THE SOUTH UNTIL AFTER 12Z. FROM MID THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...LOOK FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS WITH VISIBILITIES FALLING TO AROUND 2SM MILES IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD THESE DETAILS TO THE FORECAST YET. OVERALL...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE RULE AT THE TAF SITES THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015 MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE 1 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED 6 INCH AMOUNTS. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE AREA FROM SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN IS UNDER THE GREATEST THREAT FOR THE HIGHEST RAINFALL. HALF OF THIS RAINFALL COULD OCCUR IN A 3-6 HOUR TIME PERIOD BETWEEN LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY EVENING...LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING. ADDITIONALLY...ALL THIS RAIN WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES. CONTIGENCY FORECASTS SUGGEST MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOOD STAGE REMAIN LIKELY FOR MOST RIVERS WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FALLS...EXCEPT THE MISSISSIPPI WHICH SEEMS LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING. NOT ALL WEATHER EVENTS ARE THE SAME...BUT THE AXIS AND AMOUNTS COULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE SEPTEMBER 22-23 2010 EVENT. RIVER BASINS CURRENTLY OF CONCERN INCLUDE BLACK...TREMPEALEAU... BUFFALO...ROOT...ZUMBRO...CEDAR AND MISSISSIPPI. ADDITIONALLY...WE NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON ADDITIONAL RAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WHICH COULD EITHER SLOW THE DROP OF RIVERS OR EXACERABATE FLOODING CONCERNS. THERE ARE HINTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR WIZ017-029-034-042>044. FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR WIZ032-033-041. MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR MNZ079-086>088-094>096. IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR IAZ008-009. && $$ SHORT TERM...AJ LONG TERM...AJ AVIATION...WETENKAMP HYDROLOGY...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1138 PM MDT FRI JUN 12 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 810 PM MDT FRI JUN 12 2015 UPDATED MOST AREAS TO LOWER OR ELIMINATE POPS FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AS CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR SUGGEST MOST TSRA LIMITED TO MAINLY SOUTHERN SANGRES/EASTERN SAN JUANS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 324 PM MDT FRI JUN 12 2015 UPPER TROF PULLING AWAY TO THE EAST WITH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS STILL EXPERIENCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN AREA OF WRAP AROUND. AROUND THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...LINGERING MOISTURE WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S HAS LED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. MLCAPES OFF SPC MESO ANALYSIS ARE AROUND 500 J/KG...AND CONVECTION HAS BEEN FAIRLY WEAK SO FAR...THOUGH CERTAINLY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH CREEKS AND STREAMS RUNNING HIGH IN THE MOUNTAINS...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT SHOULD ANY STRONGER CELLS DEVELOP OUT THAT WAY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE EARLIER HIGH RES MODELS WERE SUGGESTING THIS POTENTIAL. LATER RUNS OF THE HRRR SEEM TO BE BACKING OFF ON THIS POSSIBILITY. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH FOR MOST AREAS LATER THIS EVENING. ON SATURDAY...ELONGATED TROF AXIS WILL STILL BE OVER THE AREA WITH ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST PLAINS DRY OUT WITH LEE TROFING DROPPING SFC DEW POINTS INTO THE 40S ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR WHICH CONSEQUENTIALLY KEEPS CAPE VALUES RELATIVELY LOW. WITH LIGHT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA...DEEP LAYER SHEARS WILL BE ON THE WEAK SIDE AS WELL...SO THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL OFF TO OUR SOUTH. MOUNTAINS HOWEVER WILL SEE ANOTHER SHOT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON...AND WITH LIGHT FLOW ALOFT...STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING. EVEN THOUGH THESE STORMS SHOULD BE PRETTY HIT OR MISS...GIVEN THE HIGH FLOWS IN CREEKS AND STREAMS IN THE MOUNTAINS...THERE ISN`T MUCH ROOM IN THE CHANNELS TO ACCOMMODATE ADDITIONAL WATER FROM RAINFALL...SO FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. SNOW MELT SHOULD CONTINUE IN FULL FORCE WITH NIGHT TIME LOWS STAYING ABOVE FREEZING IN THE HIGH COUNTRY SO RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH. -KT .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 324 PM MDT FRI JUN 12 2015 SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...GENERALLY WEAK WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE STATE WITH A WEAK BAGGY TROUGH SLOWLY TRANSLATING ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE SLOWLY DECREASES ACROSS THE AREA...LEADING TO DAILY CHANCES OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH THE MOISTURE IN PLACE AND THE EXPECTED SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS...MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A CONCERN. THIS...ALONG WITH THE CONTINUED MELTING OF THE HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW PACK...WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MAINLY 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS LOOKS TO SEND A BACKDOOR FRONT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH RESURGENCE OF MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW LEADING TO BETTER CHANCES OF STORMS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO...MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. TUESDAY-FRIDAY...A DRYING TREND COULD BE IN THE OFFING INTO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AS MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST A SLOW DRYING OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND LEAD TO MORE ISOLATED...DIURNALLY AND TERRAIN DRIVEN CONVECTION AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1120 PM MDT FRI JUN 12 2015 AREA OF IFR STRATUS HAS FORMED OVER EASTERN EL PASO COUNTY AS OF 05Z...STRETCHING FROM NEAR KABH NORTHEAST TO KLIC. ALSO SOME MVFR STRATUS FORMING ALONG THE KS BORDER AS WELL. MODELS ALL KEEP LOWER CLOUDS EAST OF KCOS AND KPUB OVERNIGHT...AS DRIER AIR ALOFT WORKS TOWARD THE SURFACE BEHIND WEAK LEE TROUGH JUST EAST OF I-25. WILL KEEP BOTH SITES VFR FOR NOW...BUT LOWER CIGS COULD GET VERY CLOSE TO KCOS 08Z-12Z. ON SAT...VFR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE DAY WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER ABOUT 18Z. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS MENTION FOR THE AFTERNOON AT KALS...AND WILL INSERT VCTS INTO THE KCOS TAF AROUND 00Z...AS TSRA DRIFT EASTWARD OFF THE MOUNTAINS. DOUBT STORMS WILL MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH OFF OF HIGHER TERRAIN TO REACH KPUB...THOUGH SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE 23Z-03Z. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 324 PM MDT FRI JUN 12 2015 RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH DUE TO SNOW MELT AND OCCASIONAL ADDITION OF RAINFALL ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND INTO THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. HAVE EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO SATURDAY FOR THE MTS/INTERIOR VALLEYS...AS ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD ADD MORE WATER TO AN ALREADY TAXED SYSTEM. WATER IS STILL OUT OF ITS BANKS ON THE SOUTH ARKANSAS RIVER BETWEEN PONCHA PASS AND SALIDA...AND HAVE EXTENDED THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THIS AREA THROUGH 230 PM SUNDAY...THOUGH THIS MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED AGAIN UNTIL PEAK FLOWS ARE PAST. OTHER RIVERS OF CONCERN INCLUDE COTTONWOOD CREEK...NORTH COTTONWOOD CREEK...CHALK CREEK IN CHAFFEE COUNTY....AS WELL AS CRESTONE CREEK...SAGUACHE CREEK...CONEJOS CREEK...KERBER CREEK ALONG THE SAN LUIS VALLEY EDGES. SUSPECT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL HAVE TO BE EXTENDED UNTIL PEAK FLOWS FROM SNOW MELT PASS. ITS POSSIBLE IT MAY NEED TO BE CONVERTED TO A FLOOD WATCH ONCE RAINFALL IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE...BUT AS LONG AS RAIN IS IN THE FORECAST...MAY JUST LEAVE THE WATCH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO KEEP THE MESSAGE CONSISTENT. RAINFALL ESTIMATES FROM YESTERDAY BASED OFF RADAR SUGGEST 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN FELL SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER ACROSS NORTHERN LAS ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES AMONG OTHER PLACES. THIS WATER WILL BE DRAINING INTO THE ARKANSAS RIVER WHICH IS ALSO RUNNING HIGH...AND ITS POSSIBLE THAT FORECAST FLOOD STAGES WILL CHANGE AS THIS WATER IS ROUTED DOWNSTREAM. -KT && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR COZ058>075-078. && $$ UPDATE...PETERSEN SHORT TERM...KT LONG TERM...MW AVIATION...PETERSEN HYDROLOGY...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
332 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NW INTO THE SE US TODAY THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO HOTTER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY OR EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTH LATE NEXT WEEK AND A FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH...LEADING TO TEMPERATURES NOT QUITE AS HOT AND A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... EARLY THIS MORNING...SHOWERS HAVE MADE IT INTO THE CSRA BUT APPEAR TO BE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD. HRRR ALSO SHOWS ACTIVITY WEAKENING AND DISSIPATING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT ACROSS THE AREA WITH PWAT VALUES OF 1.9 TO 2.0 INCHES. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON TRACK FOR THE LOWER 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS. TODAY...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVER THE AREA WITH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST AND LEE- SIDE TROUGHING OVER THE CAROLINAS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION APPEAR TO BE NORTHWEST AND EAST OF THE FA ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM. BUILDING HEIGHTS AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL PROMOTE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 90S NORTH TO UPPER 90S CENTRAL AND SOUTH. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S...HEAT INDICES WILL REACH 100 DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL TONIGHT...SO BASICALLY A DRY FORECAST AT THIS TIME. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL IN THE LOWER 70S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FOR SUNDAY...THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE AS AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 100 DEGREES. MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES REMAIN IN THE LOWER 100S...WHICH IS BELOW ANY HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS PROGGED TO REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH WITH SOME LEE SIDE TROUGHING AND A WEAK BACK DOOR BOUNDARY REMAINING MAINLY TO OUR NORTH. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS MOST CONVECTION OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED POSSIBLE AT BEST. AT THIS TIME WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST...WITH POPS JUST BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WARM TREND AS READINGS ONLY FALL IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MODELS HAVE THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CSRA TO START OFF THE DAY ON MONDAY. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA INTO TUESDAY BEFORE THE CENTER BEGINS TO PUSH BACK OFFSHORE INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA NEXT WEEK...WITH ONLY A LEE SIDE TROUGH POSSIBLY SETTING UP THROUGH THE EAST-CENTRAL CAROLINAS. CONTINUED HOT WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR 100 THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE PUSHES EAST OFF THE COAST...READINGS MAY FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 90S TO END THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS TO REMAIN MUGGY AND IN THE MIDDLE 70S. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS ARE MOVING NE ACROSS DNL/AGS EARLY THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH NO RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED. MODELS SHOW THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUING TO WEAKEN. UPPER RIDGE WILL EXPAND OVER THE AREA TODAY PROVIDING LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. GENERALLY SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS AND LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT STRATUS DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO DRIER LOWER LEVELS. LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED A BIT SO FOG POTENTIAL ALSO LOW. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PICK UP FROM THE WEST BY 15Z AT AROUND 10 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER 00Z AND BECOME LIGHT. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
250 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS MORNING AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUN RISE. HRRR SEEMED TO HAVE A BEST HANDLE ON THE RAIN OVERNIGHT AND IS SHOWING VERY LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE...DRIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH SUNRISE /EVEN WITH MAIN AREA OF RAIN DIMINISHING/. IF THIS OCCURS THOUGH...WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND ISOLATED THROUGH THE MORNING. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA AND THUS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE SHORT TERM HAVE LIMITED POPS TO ABOUT 20 PERCENT. THERE ARE ONCE AGAIN DISCREPANCIES IN THE HI-RES MODELS FOR THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH...SOME HINT AT SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SW PART OF THE CWA AND THUS WENT SLIGHTLY HIGH ON POPS IN THAT AREA. WITH UPPER RIDGE...WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH 90S ACROSS THE CWA /EXCEPT FOR THE MOUNTAINS/ TODAY AND TOMORROW. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE A FEW DEGREES FOR SUNDAY COMPARED TO SATURDAY WITH VALUES REACHING THE UPPER 90S ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THAT AREA WILL SEE SOME HEAT INDEX VALUES TOPPING 100 SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO STILL BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA /HEAT INDEX VALUE OF 105 OR GREATER/. REGARDLESS THOUGH...ITS STILL GOING TO BE HOT OUT AND WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OF THE YEAR SO FAR...FOLKS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA SHOULD FOLLOW HEAT SAFETY PRECAUTIONS AND LIMIT TIME OUTDOORS. 11 .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH BUILDING HIGH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WITH GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS. ECMWF IS PERHAPS A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE 500 MB HIGH BUT DIFFERENCES ARE NEGLIGIBLE AND SHOULD NOT AFFECT SENSIBLE WEATHER. DESPITE THE OVERALL SUBSIDENCE PROVIDED BY THE STACKED HIGH...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL WITH PWATS OVER 1.75 INCHES AND CLOSE TO 2 INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS. WAS WAITING A FEW RUNS TO SEE IF THIS PERSISTED AND IT HAS INDEED IN THE MODELS SO WILL NEED TO INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY IN LATEST GRID SET. THIS TREND CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY WITH UPPER HIGH GETTING A LITTLE STRONGER AND BUILDING WESTWARD WHILE MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH WITH ONLY MARGINALLY LOWER VALUES THAN MONDAY. OVERALL LIFT IN THE AFTERNOON LOOKS LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN MONDAY AND ALTHOUGH WILL MAINTAIN POPS FOR ALL AREAS...CANNOT SEE GOING HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE AT THIS POINT. MAIN WX SYSTEMS REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE AREA FOR WED ALTHOUGH HIGH DOES SHOW SOME SIGNS OF WEAKENING. MAY SEE SOME ENHANCED LATE EVENING ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FAR NW AS A RESULT BUT OVERALL POPS WILL REMAIN LIMITED IN THE LOW END CHANCE RANGE. RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN TIER. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WELL WITH PWATS OVER 2 INCHES NORTH OF A ROME TO CLEVELAND LINE REQUIRING AT LEAST HIGH END CHANCE POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. OVERALL NUMBERS AND THINKING ON BUILDING HEAT HAS NOT CHANGES WITH MONDAY AND TUESDAY TEMPERATURES NEAR 100 FOR FAR SE SECTIONS AND HEAT INDICES AROUND 105. DEESE && .AVIATION... 06Z UPDATE... SHOWERS ARE LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS MORNING AND ARE SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH. ALTHOUGH DID MENTION VCSH IN THE ATL TAFS...SHRA MAY DISSIPATE BEFORE MAKING IT THAT FAR NORTH. SOME GUIDANCE IS POINTING AT MVFR FOG IN THE MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT ON THE FOG. DID MENTION IT AT CSG THOUGH GIVEN THE RAIN THEY RECEIVED EARLIER. //ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE... HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WIND AND CIGS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON VSBY. 11 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 93 70 95 72 / 20 10 20 10 ATLANTA 90 73 92 74 / 20 20 20 10 BLAIRSVILLE 85 65 88 65 / 30 30 30 10 CARTERSVILLE 91 69 93 71 / 20 20 20 10 COLUMBUS 93 73 94 73 / 20 20 20 10 GAINESVILLE 89 71 92 72 / 20 20 20 10 MACON 94 70 96 72 / 20 10 20 10 ROME 90 68 93 70 / 20 20 20 10 PEACHTREE CITY 91 68 92 71 / 20 20 20 10 VIDALIA 95 73 96 75 / 20 10 20 10 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....DEESE AVIATION...11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1136 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015 AT THE SURFACE A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM NEAR DETROIT TO ST. LOUIS AND THEN TO LUBBOCK TX. NORTH OF THE FRONT EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS WAS OCCURRING ACROSS THE DVN CWA WITH 11 PM TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 59 AT FREEPORT TO 72 AT KEOKUK. DEWPOINTS RANGED FROM THE MID 50S IN FAR NW IL TO THE LOWER 70S IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN CWA. PATCHY FOG WAS ALSO NOTED ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL LAST NIGHT...AND WHERE DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE 60S. AT 1130 PM DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN IL AND WERE CREEPING UP INTO HANCOCK AND MCDONOUGH COUNTIES...AND ALSO INTO SE IA. THIS IS IN AN AREA OF CAPES OF 1000 J/KG AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF 1.8 INCHES...ALONG WITH CONTINUED DECENT LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. A LARGER AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO SE KS AND FAR WESTERN MO. 00Z/13 SUBJECTIVE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED A STALLED 850 MB FRONT EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL LOWER MI TO NEAR DUBUQUE TO THE NM/TX BORDER. A VERY JUICY AIRMASS WAS NOTED SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH 850 MB DEWPOINTS IN THE 14 TO 17C RANGE. AT 500 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ALONG THE KS/NEB BORDER AND THIS IS SEEN WELL ON WATER VAPOR MOVIE LOOPS. A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EXTENDED FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE LATEST HI-RES HRRR MESO MODEL INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING ACROSS OUR ROUGHLY SOUTHEAST HALF OVERNIGHT AND THEN OVER MUCH OF THE CWA (IN A SCATTERED FASHION) SATURDAY MORNING. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015 ANALYSIS AT 2 PM SHOWS ENTIRE AREA IN LOW CLOUDS WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER IOWA AND DISSIPATING LOW OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS. DISSIPATING BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTHEAST WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS ARE SPAWNING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS, NOWCAST TOOLS AND UPSTREAM ENERGY SUGGESTS SOUTHERN PLAINS ENERGY TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH BACK INTO REGION THE NEXT 24 PLUS HOURS FOR INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. LONGER TERM PATTERN REMAINS CONDUCIVE FOR CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION MOST OF NEXT WEEK. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015 SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE...FAIR TO POOR OR AVERAGE TO BELOW AVERAGE WITH ARRIVAL OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY SUGGESTION BL TOO MOIST SO ANY PRECIPITATION MAY BE DELAYED INTO SATURDAY MANY LOCATIONS. MINS TONIGHT MAY STILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO TOO COOL IF LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE AS SUGGESTED. HIGHS TOMORROW ARE BASED ON SOME PM SUNSHINE WHICH MAY NOT OCCUR ALL LOCATIONS AND MAY NEED LOWERING BY 3 PLUS DEGREES FOR LATER SHIFTS. TONIGHT...CLOUDY WITH POSSIBLY PATCHY LIGHT FOG AS LIGHT NE SHIFT TO THE EAST. SOME VISIBILITIES BELOW MILES MAY BE POSSIBLE. LOWS UPPER 50S FAR NE TO MIDDLE 60S SOUTH SECTIONS. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SPOTTY AND LIGHT AND MOSTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...IF AT ALL. CARRYING SLIGHT CHANCES ALL BUT FAR SOUTH SECTIONS AT THIS TIME. SATURDAY...QUESTION OF AMOUNT OF CLEARING WITH CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON MORE LIKELY. HIGHS UPPER 70S NORTH TO MIDDLE 80S FAR SOUTH A GOOD COMPROMISE WITH NORTH SECTIONS POSSIBLY STILL A FEW DEGREES TOO MILD IF CLOUDS CONTINUE. CHANCE POPS BY PM OF SHOWERS AND BRIEF STORMS WITH GENERALLY ANY AMOUNTS LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND WEAK FORCING WITH POPCORN TYPE CONVECTION SUGGESTED FROM DIURNAL HEATING. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015 MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS THE WET PATTERN AND THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT WE WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN...CONTINUED AND POSSIBLE NEW RIVER FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING. MAJOR QUESTIONS REMAIN AS FAR AS SPECIFICS REGARDING THE PLACEMENT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER. SATURDAY NIGHT...THE BOUNDARY THAT HAD BEEN ACROSS US HAS SAGGED SOUTH. OVERALL SYNOPTIC FLOW AND PATTERN IS WEAKER THAN IT WAS FOR YESTERDAYS EVENT. MODEL FLOW IS CONDUCIVE TO HEAVY RAINFALL EVENTS...THIS WITH PWATS STILL NEAR TWO INCHES....GUIDANCE IS INDICATIVE OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS SAID...I DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS ON OVERALL FORECASTABILITY AND WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE MUCH HIGH QPF. 1. THE OVERALL SURFACE FEATURES...ALONG WITH THE H85 FLOW ARE COMPLETELY DIFFERENT. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS SAGGED FARTHER SOUTH. WITH A LACK OF HEATING AND RATHER WEAK H5 VORT...ONLY A SFC LOW WOULD BRING IT AS FAR NORTH AS THE MODELS HAVE IT. OVERALL SFC LOW IS WEAK SO FLOW OFF THE LAKE WONT BE THAT BIG OF A PLAYER...BUT STILL WILL BE ONE NOT RESOLVED IN THE MODELS. 2. H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND H85 LLJ DONT PROVIDE A CONSISTENT FEED OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA LIKE IT DID YESTERDAY. IN FACT MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE LLJ DOES NOT EVEN ENTER OUR AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM ON SUN NIGHT. LOOKING AT H85 MOIST TRANS VECS...THE FLOW COMES THROUGH AN AREA WITH ACTIVE CONVECTION. ONE HAS TO WONDER HOW THIS WILL AFFECT THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO US. MUCAPE GRADIENT IS ACROSS OUR AREA. HOWEVER IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THERE IS AN ILL DEFINED H85 FRONT AND SFC FRONT...I DONT THINK THE FORCING IS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION LIKE LAST NIGHT. THAT SAID...CONDITION DO EXIST...ESPECIALLY THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FOR FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA. FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...I DO NOT SEE THE SYSTEM AS ROBUST AS THE LAST ONE WE HAD. REGARDLESS ONE CANNOT LOWER THEIR GUARD THIS WEEKEND. SEVERE WEATHER IS ALSO POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. MANY OF THESE THREATS WILL BE DICTATED BY MESOSCALE PROCESSES THAT MAKE THE FORECAST DIFFICULT UNTIL THE DAY OF. AFTER SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A SW FLOW REMAINS. THE GULF REMAINS OPEN AND THEIR ARE RIPPLES THROUGH THE FLOW. WE ARE NOT DONE WITH THE RAIN THREAT AND FLOODING THREAT AT ALL THROUGH THE LONG TERM. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015 MAINLY IFR CONDS IN LOW STRATUS/AREAS OF LIGHT FOG THROUGH MID MORNING ON SATURDAY AS NORTHEAST WINDS AND COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAIN. LATER SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON CONDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME VFR AS WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH SATURDAY. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HAASE SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS SHORT TERM...NICHOLS LONG TERM...GIBBS AVIATION...HAASE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1148 PM MDT FRI JUN 12 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT FRI JUN 12 2015 LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE DATA SHOW A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA...WITH A CLOUDY SKY. RADAR INDICATED A BAND OF LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE RAINFALL CONTINUING NORTHWARD OVER THE NORTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES WITH A SMALL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON ANTICIPATE THE BAND OF RAINFALL TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTH. NOTICED THE BAND HAS BEGUN TO MOVE FASTER OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO. AS SUCH...MAY BE HANGING ONTO IT A BIT TOO LONG IN THE FORECAST...BUT HAVE THE BAND TRANSLATING NORTHWARD ACCORDING TO THE RAP 500MB WINDS WHICH SHOULD BE REPRESENTATIVE. THE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS ARE TRYING TO BREAK SOME AHEAD OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. IF CLOUDS REMAIN MOSTLY UNBROKEN THIS WILL AFFECT THE LONGEVITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS GOING INTO THE EVENING. FOR EVENING THE BAND OF RAINFALL SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE AREA BEFORE MID EVENING. MEANWHILE THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN SOME AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES AND THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE STABLE. SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS AS THE AXIS MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. DESPITE THE LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AND DECENT LIFT THE MODELS WERE NOT TOO CONVINCED RAIN WOULD DEVELOP. WITH THIS IN MIND WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS BUT KEEP THEM BELOW 40 PERCENT. AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TAKING MOST OF ANY LINGERING RAINFALL WITH IT. THE AREA SHOULD BE RAIN FREE BEFORE SUNRISE. BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS THE SKY WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR. THIS MAY ALLOW SOME FOG TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER VISIBILITY FIELDS WERE NOT SUGGESTING FOG WOULD DEVELOP SO WILL LEAVE FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST AND A SOUNDING AT YUMA INDICATED FAIRLY DRY LOW LEVELS. SATURDAY WILL BE DRY FOR MOST OF THE DAY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE WARM AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AS THE COOLER AIR ACCOMPANIES THE TROUGH EASTWARD. DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST BRINGING WITH IT ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED STORMS TO THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA. THERE LOOKS TO BE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SURFACE TROUGH SEPARATING THE WARMER AIR OVER THE TR-STATE AREA BEHIND THE TROUGH FROM THE COOLER AIR EAST OF THE AREA UNDER THE TROUGH. THIS MAY HELP PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORM INITIATION DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 136 PM MDT FRI JUN 12 2015 FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...LATEST MODELS RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AT 500/700MB...AND STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST/ SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION...BEING STUCK IN BETWEEN THESE TWO RIDGES WILL HAVE AN INVERTED TROUGH SET UP OVER THE AREA. FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND ON THRU NEXT WEEK...THIS IS GOING TO GIVE THE ENTIRE TRI STATE REGION THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...FURTHER ENHANCED BY SEVERAL SHORTWAVES THAT MOVE THRU THE ZONAL FLOW TO OUR NORTH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION NEXT WEEK...WILL ALSO HELP TO ENHANCE ANY PRECIP CHANCES AS A SURFACE FRONT THAT DEVELOPS IN TANDEM WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH/SHORTWAVE COMBO. THE FRONT WILL END UP BECOMING STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD COULD VARY GREATLY DEPENDING ON THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS FROM EXPECTED PRECIP...BUT OVERALL UPWARD TREND IS EXPECTED AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SW WILL PROVIDE WNW DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY MIDWEEK ONWARD GIVING THE AREA 850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM +20C TO +26C. LOOKING FOR DAYTIME HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND MID 80S TO MID 90S WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...WARMEST AT END OF THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S THRU THE MID 60S. EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION WILL BE CLOSEST TO MORE UNSTABLE AIR FROM THE SE...SO CHANCES FOR ANY POTENTIAL SEVERE WILL BE FOCUSED MORE SO THERE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1145 PM MDT FRI JUN 12 2015 VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH GLD POSSIBLY SEEING INTERMITTENT IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 11Z-13Z DUE MAINLY TO LOWER CEILINGS WITH SOME DECREASE IN VISIBILITY POSSIBLE DUE TO FOG. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z...BUT SHOULD NOT BE A PREVAILING CONDITION AT EITHER SITE. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JTL LONG TERM...JN AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
346 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND CREST OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW PRES MOVING QUICKLY ALONG THE MAINE COAST. LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED RAIN PUSHING QUICKLY TO THE E. SOME HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRED EARLIER ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL REGION AND ALSO IN PORTIONS OF INTERIOR DOWNEAST MAINE. STRONG JET MAX OF 60 KTS RESIDING FROM 850-700MBS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HEAVIER RAINFALL NOW EXITING TO E. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED BEST ENHANCEMENT ALIGNING W/THAT JET MAX NOW OVER EASTERN MAINE AND MOVING QUICKLY E. USED A BLEND OF THE HRRR 3KM AND RAP MODEL THROUGH 12Z. THIS BLEND SHOWS THE RAIN WILL PULLING OUT OF THE AREA BY 6 AM W/FAR EASTERN AREAS THE LAST TO CLEAR OUT. SUNSHINE WILL RETURN BY 8 AM W/NNW WINDS AND SOME DRYING TO TAKE PLACE. A PLEASANT DAY COMING UP W/TEMPERATURES RISING WELL INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80 BY THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT WILL FEATURE CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES W/HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE W. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST W/50-55 FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.DECIDED TO THROW IN SOME FOG FOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING DUE TO THE RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED. AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESURE WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG COULD BRING VSBYS BRIEFLY TO MVFR BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BUT IT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. IFR/MVFR ACROSS KBGR AND KBHB THIS MORNING QUICKLY IMPROVING TO VFR BY 12-13Z AND HOLDING THERE THROUGH TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG COULD ALLOW FOR BRIEF MVFR VSBYS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SHORT TERM: VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED. WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 TO 15 KT BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. A BRIEF PERIOD OF 20 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE FOR THE OUTER WATERS. THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WIND WILL KEEP SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...HEWITT SHORT TERM...DUDA LONG TERM...DUDA AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
106 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TRACK ACROSS COASTAL MAINE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND CREST OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 1 AM UPDATE...RADAR SHOWING OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE CWA W/SOME HEAVY POCKETS OF RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. SATELLITE IR IMAGERY SHOWED 2 AREAS OF ENHANCEMENT DEVELOPING W/ONE AREA MOVING INTO CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND THE OTHER AREA ACROSS DOWNEAST COASTAL AREAS. THE 2 AREAS OF ENHANCEMENT WERE IN ASSOCIATION W/A 50-60 KT JET MAX FROM 850-700MBS PER THE 00Z UA. SOME IN-CLOUD LIGHTNING STRIKES SHOWING UP ALONG GYX`S COASTAL AREAS. THE MOVEMENT OF THIS AREA OF LIGHTING WAS TO THE NE AND SOME OF THIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DOWNEAST COAST OVER THE NEXT 3 HRS. KEPT TSTMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND COAST W/HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN THREAT. QPF OF 0.50-0.75 INCHES WAS ADJUSTED FURTHER TO THE EAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CONVECTION. RAIN WILL COME TO END FAIRLY QUICKLY AS WELL DEPICTED BY THE HRRR 3KM MODEL. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... DEPENDING ON ULTIMATE TRACK OF SFC LOW, IN WHICH CONSENSUS OF 12Z GUIDANCE IS HINTING ALONG COAST, WL DETERMINE HOW MUCH THUNDER AREAS WL BE ABLE TO SEE. NEGATIVE SHOWALTERS RMN OFFSHORE WITH VRY MEAGER MID-LVL LR OVR LAND ZONES BUT WITH STRONG FRCG ALOFT CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLD THUNDER. THUS HV CONFINED THUNDER TO AREAS SOUTH OF A BANGOR- DANFORTH LINE OVRNGT WITH HVY RAIN MENTION AS FAR NORTH AS A GREENVILLE-HOULTON LINE. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WL RANGE BTWN 0.75-1 INCH IN DOWNEAST ZONES TONIGHT WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED ACRS THE CROWN. EXPECT SHOWERS TO QUICKLY EXIT CWA SAT MRNG LVG A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON TAP WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN ARND 80F DOWNEAST TO M70S OVR FAR NORTH. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING A CLEAR AND SEASONABLE NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH CRESTS OVER THE AREA. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST. CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE ON MONDAY AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO LIFT INTO THE REGION FROM THE RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH AND A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY STRAY INTO WESTERN AREAS LATE IN THE DAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... PRECIPITATION WILL BE SPREADING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA AT THE START OF THE LONG RANGE, AND 50 TO 60 POPS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. POPS DROP TO 40 TO 50 FOR DAYTIME TUESDAY AS THE BULK OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA, WITH MORE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH. REDUCED THUNDER TO SOUTHERN ZONES ONLY, AS IT APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT THE WARM SECTOR MAY NOT REACH THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING FOR CLEARING. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING LATE IN THE WEEK, HOWEVER BOTH DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON TIMING AT THIS POINT. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE AND WOULD HAVE PRECIPITATION BEGIN TO WORK IN LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING AND CLEAR BY FRIDAY NIGHT. ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER AS A RESULT OF HAVING A 500MB CUT-OFF MOVE MUCH MORE SLOWLY OVER JAMES BAY AND NORTHERN QUEBEC, AS OPPOSED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS IT MORE OF AN OPEN TROUGH. LET IT RUN WITH CHANCE POPS FROM SUPERBLEND TOWARD THE END OF THE LONG RANGE AS A RESULT OF THE DISAGREEMENT. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS (FVE, CAR AND PQI) NEXT 24 HOURS. POTENTIAL FOR MVFR AT HUL AFTER 04Z. BGR AND BHB WILL SEE MVFR RESTRICTIONS MOVE IN BETWEEN 03Z AND 05Z THEN QUICKLY DROP TO IFR AT TIMES IN +RA. RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO VFR DURING THE MORNING SAT. SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR LATE MONDAY THEN IFR MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY IN LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD FOLLOW FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH CIELINGS POSSIBLY LOWERING LATE THURSDAY IN SOME SPOTS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: THE SEAS AND WIND WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH SATURDAY. SHORT TERM: SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FT OR MORE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA TROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
557 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 .AVIATION... AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AS A LOW STRATUS DECK WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT TODAY...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE THIS EVENING...THEN MORE STRATUS TONIGHT. SOME SPOTTY IFR CIGS MAY BE PRESENT AT 12Z BUT SHOULD NOT LAST LONG. ALL THIS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS LOCKED UNDER A STRONG INVERSION. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BUT A LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH LAKE MI INTO NORTHERN MI WILL PRODUCE INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS LATE THIS EVENING. AMPLE MOISTURE REMAINING WITH THE MAIN WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL AGAIN BRING LOW STRATUS BACK TO THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH SUNDAY MORNING. FOR DTW...MVFR CIGS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A STRONG INVERSION WILL TAKE TIME TO TRY TO MIX OUT. SHOWERS LOOK TO RETURN LATE THIS EVENING WITH A LOW CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDER EMBEDDED WITHIN THEM. LOW STRATUS LOOKS TO RETURN TONIGHT BEFORE THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH EARLY SUNDAY BRINGING IMPROVING CIGS. //DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * HIGH IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...MEDIUM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THEN AGAIN TONIGHT. * LOW IN THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE AIRSPACE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 322 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT THE STALLED FRONT THAT HAS BEEN PLAGUING THE REGION WILL RESIDE JUST SOUTH OF THE MI BORDER TO START THE DAY AS RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT BUILD OVER THE AREA. THE SFC RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES KEEPING COOL EASTERLY FLOW BENEATH A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE BEING TRAPPED WITH THE INVERSION...EXPECT THE CURRENT STRATUS DECK TO HOLD...WHILE SLOWLY LIFTING...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. REMNANTS OF A MID LEVEL WAVE RIPPLING ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH HAS KEPT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...ISOLATED TSTORMS...GOING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF M59. THIS ACTIVITY WILL FADE AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD AND THE FILAMENT OF VORTICITY HELPING TO FUEL THESE SHOWERS LIFTS FURTHER NORTH DEEPER INTO AN UNFAVORABLE AIRMASS. EYES THEN TURN TO THE NEXT WAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR OVER NE/IA AS OF 07Z THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE WILL LIFT NE AROUND THE RIDGE THROUGH WI/MN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS ARE ADVERTISING AN AREA OF SHOWERS TRACKING THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMPACT VORT MAX. QUESTION IS HOW FAR S AND E WILL THESE SHOWERS/TSTORMS REACH? WILL BE LEANING TOWARD THE DRIER HIRES HRRR AND ARW AS THEY ARE BOTH LOCKED ON WITH CURRENT ACTIVITY. WILL KEEP A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA WITH DRY CONDITIONS HOLDING OVER THE EASTERN CWA. THIS WILL MAINLY COVER ANY STRAY SHOWERS THAT CAN SURVIVE INTO SE MI ALONG THE VORTICITY FILAMENT LIFTING NORTHWARD. AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST OVERNIGHT...THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE AS THE TRAILING TROUGH AND VORTICITY AXIS FOLDS INTO THE AREA. THE AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE STABLE AS THE FRONT HANGS TO OUR SOUTH. SO WE WILL BE MAINLY DEALING WITH SHOWERS TODAY...BUT A CHANCE OF THUNDER DOES REMAIN AS SOME INSTABILITY DRIFTS NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN MI THROUGH THE DAY. BIGGER THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING FOR ANY AREAS THAT CAN GET A COUPLE STORMS TO PASS OVER...ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT HAVE HAD A FEW ROUNDS OF STORMS ALREADY OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. PWATS WILL HOVER AT OR ABOVE 1.5 INCHES THROUGH THE DAY...INCREASING OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LONG TERM... ACTIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST AS MAIN BAND OF UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES SETS UP OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. THIS WILL LEAD TO A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS...WITH VARIOUS SHORTWAVES RIPPLING ALONG THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE AND FORCING ROUNDS OF CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING FORECAST. THE MEAN FRONTAL POSITION WILL SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT RETURN NORTH THROUGH THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST AND HELPS ESTABLISHED THE AFOREMENTIONED ZONAL FLOW PATTERN...EXPECT THE FRONT TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION DURING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE THIS WILL NOT ELIMINATE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WHOLE AREA THOSE DAYS...IT WILL TEND TO MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER MORE NOTABLE STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL CANADA. WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN LARGELY CONFINED TO CANADA...IT WILL ALLOW FOR HEIGHTS FALLS THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS...WITH HEIGHTS RISING DOWNSTREAM OF THIS AREA OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL HELP BRING THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA AND LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN AGAIN BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. DURING THIS TIME FRAME...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AOA AVERAGE. WITH AT LEAST PORTION OF THE AREA WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...EXPECT 80S TO BE COMMON FOR HIGHS BOTH DAYS WITH LOWS WITHIN THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70. TEMPERATURES EDGE BACK INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S ON AVERAGE NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH FOR A TIME...BUT BUILD BACK TO AROUND 80 LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SAID BOUNDARY SHIFTS BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA. MARINE... SURFACE RIDGING WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS AND LOWER WAVE HEIGHTS TODAY BEFORE AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALLOWS FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY LOOKS TO REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH JUST A FEW STORMS EXPECTED OVER LAKE ST CLAIR AND WESTERN LAKE ERIE. A WARM FRONT LIFTING BACK THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL THEN BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...WITH THE THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS ON SUNDAY. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LAKE HURON...NONE. LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE. MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE. && $$ AVIATION.....DRK SHORT TERM...DRK LONG TERM....DG MARINE.......DG YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
322 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 .SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT THE STALLED FRONT THAT HAS BEEN PLAGUING THE REGION WILL RESIDE JUST SOUTH OF THE MI BORDER TO START THE DAY AS RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT BUILD OVER THE AREA. THE SFC RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES KEEPING COOL EASTERLY FLOW BENEATH A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE BEING TRAPPED WITH THE INVERSION...EXPECT THE CURRENT STRATUS DECK TO HOLD...WHILE SLOWLY LIFTING...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. REMNANTS OF A MID LEVEL WAVE RIPPLING ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH HAS KEPT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...ISOLATED TSTORMS...GOING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF M59. THIS ACTIVITY WILL FADE AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD AND THE FILAMENT OF VORTICITY HELPING TO FUEL THESE SHOWERS LIFTS FURTHER NORTH DEEPER INTO AN UNFAVORABLE AIRMASS. EYES THEN TURN TO THE NEXT WAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR OVER NE/IA AS OF 07Z THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE WILL LIFT NE AROUND THE RIDGE THROUGH WI/MN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS ARE ADVERTISING AN AREA OF SHOWERS TRACKING THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMPACT VORT MAX. QUESTION IS HOW FAR S AND E WILL THESE SHOWERS/TSTORMS REACH? WILL BE LEANING TOWARD THE DRIER HIRES HRRR AND ARW AS THEY ARE BOTH LOCKED ON WITH CURRENT ACTIVITY. WILL KEEP A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA WITH DRY CONDITIONS HOLDING OVER THE EASTERN CWA. THIS WILL MAINLY COVER ANY STRAY SHOWERS THAT CAN SURVIVE INTO SE MI ALONG THE VORTICITY FILAMENT LIFTING NORTHWARD. AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST OVERNIGHT...THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE AS THE TRAILING TROUGH AND VORTICITY AXIS FOLDS INTO THE AREA. THE AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE STABLE AS THE FRONT HANGS TO OUR SOUTH. SO WE WILL BE MAINLY DEALING WITH SHOWERS TODAY...BUT A CHANCE OF THUNDER DOES REMAIN AS SOME INSTABILITY DRIFTS NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN MI THROUGH THE DAY. BIGGER THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING FOR ANY AREAS THAT CAN GET A COUPLE STORMS TO PASS OVER...ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT HAVE HAD A FEW ROUNDS OF STORMS ALREADY OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. PWATS WILL HOVER AT OR ABOVE 1.5 INCHES THROUGH THE DAY...INCREASING OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. && .LONG TERM... ACTIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST AS MAIN BAND OF UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES SETS UP OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. THIS WILL LEAD TO A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS...WITH VARIOUS SHORTWAVES RIPPLING ALONG THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE AND FORCING ROUNDS OF CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING FORECAST. THE MEAN FRONTAL POSITION WILL SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT RETURN NORTH THROUGH THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST AND HELPS ESTABLISHED THE AFOREMENTIONED ZONAL FLOW PATTERN...EXPECT THE FRONT TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION DURING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE THIS WILL NOT ELIMINATE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WHOLE AREA THOSE DAYS...IT WILL TEND TO MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER MORE NOTABLE STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL CANADA. WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN LARGELY CONFINED TO CANADA...IT WILL ALLOW FOR HEIGHTS FALLS THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS...WITH HEIGHTS RISING DOWNSTREAM OF THIS AREA OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL HELP BRING THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA AND LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN AGAIN BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. DURING THIS TIME FRAME...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AOA AVERAGE. WITH AT LEAST PORTION OF THE AREA WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...EXPECT 80S TO BE COMMON FOR HIGHS BOTH DAYS WITH LOWS WITHIN THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70. TEMPERATURES EDGE BACK INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S ON AVERAGE NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH FOR A TIME...BUT BUILD BACK TO AROUND 80 LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SAID BOUNDARY SHIFTS BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA. && .MARINE... SURFACE RIDGING WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS AND LOWER WAVE HEIGHTS TODAY BEFORE AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALLOWS FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY LOOKS TO REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH JUST A FEW STORMS EXPECTED OVER LAKE ST CLAIR AND WESTERN LAKE ERIE. A WARM FRONT LIFTING BACK THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL THEN BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...WITH THE THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS ON SUNDAY. && .AVIATION...ISSUED 1202 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 MOIST LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS IN EASTERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A BROADER REGION OF LOW STRATUS THROUGH THE MORNING PERIOD. DRIER AIR INCHING SOUTHWARD MAY RESULT SOME PERIODIC CLEARING AT MBS...PROVIDING A WINDOW FOR FOG FORMATION AT THIS TERMINAL. ELSEWHERE...EXPECTATIONS REMAIN FOR CONDITIONS TO FALL INTO LOW MVFR/IFR. POCKETS OF SHOWERS IN MVFR LIFTING THROUGH YIP/DTW WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD. EXISTING MOISTURE WILL TAKE A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY TO MIX OUT...LIKELY RESULTING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MVFR STRATUS THROUGHOUT SATURDAY. FOR DTW...ONGOING SHOWERS WILL MAINTAIN A MORE CHAOTIC CEILING 06Z- 09Z WITH SOME INTERMITTENT MVFR EXPECTED. THEREAFTER...GREATER POTENTIAL FOR IFR STRATUS CURRENTLY LINGERING JUST UPSTREAM TO FILL ACROSS THE TERMINAL. IFR/LOW MVFR CEILING WILL SLOWLY LIFT ON SATURDAY. VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR A THUNDERSTORM LATE SATURDAY. //DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * HIGH IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...MEDIUM INTO THE AFTERNOON. * LOW IN THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE AIRSPACE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LAKE HURON...NONE. LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE. MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DRK LONG TERM....DG MARINE.......DG AVIATION.....MR YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
425 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015 .DISCUSSION... TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT... DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH ATLANTIC STATES CONTINUES TO FORCE A VERY MOIST AIRMASS (PRECIPITABLE WATER ~ 1.8 TO 2.2 INCHES) NORTHWARD INTO THE ARKLAMISS REGION. WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SUBSTANTIAL LOW/MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO ORGANIZE SHOWERS/TSTMS ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLE AGAIN TODAY...BUT THERE MAY BE A WESTWARD SHIFT TO THE ACTIVITY TODAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO EXPAND WESTWARD AND EXERT MORE INFLUENCE INTO EASTERN MS. TODAY`S FORECAST POPS REFLECT THIS THINKING AND FOLLOW THE MULTITUDE OF NEAR TERM GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE SPC SSEO AND OTHER HIGH-RES WRF GUIDANCE. POPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE UPDATED AND INCREASED IN SOME AREAS DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS LATER THIS MORNING. LAPSE RATES WILL BE A HAIR STEEPER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...BUT STILL EXPECT VERTICAL TOTALS TO BE LESS THAN 26 FOR MOST PART WITH 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES NOT MUCH GREATER THAN 7.5 TO 8 DEG C/KM. A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF SEVERE WIND REPORTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WHERE CONVECTION IS MORE DELAYED ALLOWING FOR GREATER DESTABILIZATION...WHICH COULD END UP BEING IN NORTHERN/ EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA GIVEN THAT INITIAL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE ALONG/SOUTH OF THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL BUT...IN SIMILAR FASHION TO YESTERDAY...STORM MOTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY SWIFT AND UNSUPPORTIVE OF HEAVY RAINFALL DURATIONS THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL. STORMS THAT ORIENT ALONG WEST TO EAST BOUNDARIES WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS. WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER THE AREA...THERE SHOULD BE A GREATER DIURNAL PATTERN TO THE CONVECTION WITH SHOWERS/STORMS DIMINISHING QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING FOLLOWED BY MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...EXPECT GREATER INSTABILITY/MOISTURE TO BECOME MORE FOCUSED OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS AS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE INTENSIFIES AND EXPANDS WESTWARD. THIS WILL MEAN DECREASING POPS FOR EASTERN MS - BUT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINING NEAR TWO INCHES ALONG/W OF THE MS RIVER...HAVE KEPT HIGHER POPS GOING THERE IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AFTN. A SIMILAR THERMODYNAMIC SET-UP SHOULD YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY AND CUT LOWS A BIT BASED ON RECENT TRENDS. /EC/ MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...OF INTEREST IS THE DISORGANIZED TROPICAL WAVE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA PUSHING TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS HAS THIS WEAK WAVE PUSHING INLAND OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST THEN PUSH IT NORTH INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION DURING THE WORKWEEK. MOREOVER...THE CANADIAN MODEL HAS THIS WAVE COMBINING WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE FOR A LITTLE BETTER AMPLIFICATION AND INCREASED LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW (~25-40 KNOTS) HELPING TO BRING SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL GENERALLY WEST OF THE MS RIVER. THE ECMWF MODEL HAS A WEAKER SHEAR AXIS LOCATED FARTHER WEST THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS. A PLUME OF MOISTURE WITH PWATS AROUND 2.3 INCHES WILL SURGE ACROSS THE WEST PORTION OF THE REGION...WHICH WILL PUSH THE DRIER AIR EAST OF THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL OF EFFICIENT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE WEST. THE GFS LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR EAST WITH THE HIGHER PWATS. MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING THE BEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS DOWN AROUND THE COASTAL AREAS. THIS IS THE FIRST MODEL RUN SHOWING THIS WAVE SO WELL IN THE LOW TO MIDLEVELS AS FAR AS JET ENERGY IS CONCERNED. EXPECT MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION FOR THE PERIOD. SO WITH THIS IN MIND WILL KEEP THE HWO CLEAR FOR NOW SINCE THE ECMWF WAS FARTHER WEST WITH THE BETTER JET DYNAMICS. WILL WATCH FOR FUTURE MODEL RUNS WITH THIS FEATURE./17/ && .AVIATION...VERY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A RATHER PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEKEND WITH LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING IFR/MVFR STRATUS AND MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED. LOCALIZED AREAS OF LIFR CATEGORY STRATUS SHOULD OCCUR...PARTICULARLY IN THE PINE BELT REGION WHERE THE HRRR HINTS AT SOME FOG POTENTIAL AS WELL. IT APPEARS THAT FLOW WILL BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP STRATUS OFF THE GROUND...BUT VERY LOW CIGS WILL STILL BE A CONCERN. /EC/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... JACKSON 89 72 89 71 / 52 25 41 13 MERIDIAN 90 69 90 69 / 43 21 28 8 VICKSBURG 90 72 89 73 / 52 29 59 18 HATTIESBURG 89 72 90 72 / 52 31 45 11 NATCHEZ 88 73 88 72 / 61 31 60 19 GREENVILLE 91 73 90 72 / 48 33 54 24 GREENWOOD 91 72 90 72 / 44 30 36 15 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...NONE. LA...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ EC/17/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
339 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2015 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 339 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015 Off-and-on wet weather continues this weekend and into next week with weak southwesterly upper flow and a steady stream of Gulf moisture into the region. Unfortunately in this ill-defined pattern it`s difficult to pinpoint where and when any weak disturbances could focus the heaviest rainfall. This is complicated even further by the presence of occasional convective complexes which can modify mass fields and throw models for a loop. Such a complex has developed early this morning over Oklahoma and has kept the heaviest precipitation focused further south than models have indicated. Depending on how strong subsidence is behind this system, there could be some redevelopment of showers and storms this morning and into the afternoon across KS and into western MO where a deamplifying upper trough should provide some enhanced ascent. However without a concentrated source of deep lift it doesn`t appear likely that flooding rains or strong storms will be much of an issue today, at least not through this evening. More showers and storms are possible later tonight and into Sunday, and perhaps again Sunday night into Monday, but again this depends on where/if the low-level jet can serve as a focusing mechanism and whether any mid-level disturbances can drift into the area, something which could be heavily influenced by upstream convection. Locally heavy rainfall is a possibility either day especially if the airmass can sufficiently destabilize during the afternoon and if the low- level jet becomes focused over the forecast area. Since uncertainty is too high in this muddy pattern (pun intended) we won`t hoist any flood watches at this time. Steady stream of moisture and occasional storm chances continues into the middle of next week, although a slight shift in upper-level winds could shunt the highest chances slightly east of the forecast area. GFS even wants to add tropical cyclone remnants into the mix, as if this forecast needed even more uncertainty thrown at it, but this seems pretty unlikely. At this point the best bet for a dry day looks to be Wednesday and/or Thursday although that can certainly change in this pattern. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night) Issued at 1203 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015 Area of showers and embedded thunderstorms expected to lift northeast across eastern KS/west central MO during the early morning hours. Latest HRRR and 00z NAM seem reasonable with the rain lasting through late morning although there may be some intermittent breaks. Expecting mainly VFR ceilings although MVFR ceilings will likely coincide with any of the heavier embedded showers. While scattered convection is expected to affect eastern KS as well as northern and west central MO during the afternoon will stick with vicinity wording and wait for the next forecast cycle to try to pin timing down. Otherwise, anticipate more widespread showers and thunderstorms with heavy rains possible Saturday evening. Light winds will gradually veer to the southeast and then south during the forecast period. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1218 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2015 .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night) Issued at 400 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015 The heavy rain threat will be the main forecast challenge through the weekend driven by the combination of a surface boundary in the vicinity and a series of upper level waves rotating through a slow moving upper trough. Main surface boundary currently draped across far southern part of forecast area. Some breaks in the cloud cover have allowed temperatures to warm into the middle 80s along the boundary while in northwest Missouri temperatures have struggled to get out of the 60s. The front is providing a focal point for scattered convection driven by diurnal heating. This activity should diminish over the forecast area later this evening. Strengthen LLJ tonight will focus MCS initiation over southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma tonight. Convective system forecast by high resolution short term models to move into forecast area after midnight. During the day on Saturday the surface boundary should work further north. The highest threat for heavy rainfall appears to be on Saturday night/Sunday as LLJ once again strengthens after sunset. This time however the jet is a bit stronger and focused closer to the forecast area. Depending on how convection evolves Saturday Night/Sunday morning the boundary will likely still be in or around the forecast area during the day Sunday. Convection will remain possible through the day Sunday with a similar MCS scenario possible on Sunday night. After coordination with surrounding offices have decided to hold off on flash flood watch for now. Best threat for heavy rain appears to be late in the weekend and there are still some questions regarding timing and location of heavy rain. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday) Issued at 400 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015 Thunderstorm chances will continue early next week as the surface boundary lingers across central MO and a series of weak shortwave troughs advance out into the Plains, reinforcing precipitation chances. Currently, the heaviest rainfall looks like it will focus mainly south of I-70 given the position of the front, but changes are definitely possible depending on how convection the previous days pans out. Severe weather chances will be marginal each day with the boundary in the area serving as a focus for convection and adequate instability for storms, but weak shear and complications from cloud cover/morning convection. Widespread precipitation will also likely hold high temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s most days, although spikes in temperature are possible if sufficient clearing occurs any of the days. Precipitation chances should taper off but not end altogether as upper level flow flattens and gradually turns more to the northwest, keeping many of the upper-level disturbances north of the forecast area. However, the boundary may not completely shift out of the region, and storm chances will be non-zero beyond the end of the period. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night) Issued at 1203 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015 Area of showers and embedded thunderstorms expected to lift northeast across eastern KS/west central MO during the early morning hours. Latest HRRR and 00z NAM seem reasonable with the rain lasting through late morning although there may be some intermittent breaks. Expecting mainly VFR ceilings although MVFR ceilings will likely coincide with any of the heavier embedded showers. While scattered convection is expected to affect eastern KS as well as northern and west central MO during the afternoon will stick with vicinity wording and wait for the next forecast cycle to try to pin timing down. Otherwise, anticipate more widespread showers and thunderstorms with heavy rains possible Saturday evening. Light winds will gradually veer to the southeast and then south during the forecast period. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Mitchell LONG TERM...Laflin AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1152 PM MDT FRI JUN 12 2015 .AVIATION... 06Z TAF CYCLE SHRA/TSRA HAVE MOVED INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FROM THE SW. MEANWHILE...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THRU THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN AND BOUNDARY COLLISIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE TS DEVELOPMENT NEAR KAEG/KABQ SOUTHWARD TO KONM FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ELSEWHERE...A SMALL CLUSTER OF SHRA/TSRA ARE DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS EC NM AS HI-RES MODELS SHOWED PREVIOUSLY. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE EAST THRU SUNRISE. ADDITIONALLY...IFR CIGS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT. LOW CIGS SHOULD PERSIST THRU APPROX 15Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED ON SAT. MODELS ARE FAVORING AREAS ACROSS NW NM BY LATE MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE AFTN. THESE STORMS SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS THRU SAT EVE. 34 && .PREV DISCUSSION...1026 PM MDT FRI JUN 12 2015... .UPDATE... DECIDED TO DO A QUICK UPDATE TO REARRANGE THE HIGHER POPS CENTRAL/NORTH AREAS. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWING AN INTENSIFYING CLUSTER OF STORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF ABQ/BELEN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY SHIFTING NORTHWARD OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS LATE TONIGHT. RADAR ALSO SHOWING SOME SPECKLED LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE SE PLAINS. WILL GO WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY FOR THIS AREA. HRRR NOT REALLY SHOWING IT THERE HOWEVER...SO HEDGING THE BETS A LITTLE. EITHER WAY...POPULATION CENTERS FROM SOCORRO TO SANTA FE COULD VERY WELL BE AWOKEN BY SOME THUNDER TONIGHT. 50 && .PREV DISCUSSION...331 PM MDT FRI JUN 12 2015... .SYNOPSIS... A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. A MOIST BACK DOOR FRONT SURGING SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE STATE TODAY WILL FOCUS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS WEEKEND. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP OVER THE STATE AND LEAD TO A SLOW DRYING AND WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK. THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA MAY SEE THEIR FIRST MID TO UPPER 90S THIS YEAR. && .DISCUSSION... AXIS OF MOIST INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL FORCING FOR TORNADO THREAT IS WAIVERING ALONG THE TEXAS STATE LINE W/ ROOSEVELT COUNTY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TORNADO WATCH CANCELLED WELL BEFORE 9PM. THREAT COULD CONTINUE FOR SOUTHEAST ROOSEVELT IF AXIS BACKS WEST WITH OUTFLOW WINDS FROM STORMS IN TEXAS. OTHERWISE... THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AND LCL HVY RAIN WILL BE OVER THE NE PLAINS AND IN THE AREA AROUND SOCORRO...TORRANCE...AND LINCOLN COUNTIES THIS EVENING. OVERALL NO BIG CHANGES ADVERTISED FROM MODEL TRENDS TODAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH SAGGING SOUTHWARD COULD ARGUABLY BE FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS TRENDS AND RESULTS IN FOCUS FOR HIGHEST POPS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A WELL-DEVELOPED DRYLINE IS ALSO MORE EVIDENT OVER THE FAR SE PLAINS IN THIS PATTERN SO POTENTIAL FOR SVR STORMS IS A BIT HIGHER... ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. QPF VALUES PER WPC INDICATES SOME FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS OVER THE EAST. BY MONDAY THE THREAT FOR LCL HVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING FOCUSES WESTWARD ALONG THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AS A BACK DOOR FRONT SLIDES WEST UNDERNEATH A DEVELOPING UPPER HIGH. THIS 591DM H5 RIDGE WILL WEAKEN STEERING FLOW AND ALLOW FOR MORE MATURE TERRAIN DRIVEN CIRCULATIONS TO CREATE A MORE MONSOONAL PATTERN THRU TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...DRIER AIR AND WARMING TEMPS WILL SLIDE INTO WESTERN NM. JUST ABOUT EVERYONE SEES HOTTER TEMPS AND DRIER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THRU THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS TO NEAR 594DM OVER AZ/SOCAL. 700MB TEMPS RISE TO BTWN +18C AND +20C OVER NM...WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE HOTTEST READINGS SO FAR THIS YEAR FOR MANY FOLKS. MID TO UPPER 90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE ABQ METRO WEDNESDAY AND/OR THURSDAY. GUYER && .FIRE WEATHER... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AND DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. IT WILL WORK WITH MOISTURE CURRENTLY BEING DELIVERED BY A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE THE BEST COVERAGE OF WETTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN AREAS AND THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. SPOTTIER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL TO AS MUCH AS 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ARE EXPECTED. VENTILATION WILL GENERALLY BE GOOD OR BETTER...EXCEPT FOR A FEW POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION SUNDAY IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF CLAYTON TO CONCHAS AND TUCUMCARI. ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST MONDAY...AND A MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SE US WILL FUNNEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD OUT MEXICO OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP WETTING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST MAINLY EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY SOUTH OF I-40 IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND MANZANO AND GALLINAS MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS MUCH OF ROOSEVELT COUNTY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD USHER IN DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST WITH A DOWNTICK IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WEDNESDAY INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE COMING WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND UPWARD REACHING ABOVE NORMAL AREAWIDE THURSDAY. 44 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1026 PM MDT FRI JUN 12 2015 .UPDATE... DECIDED TO DO A QUICK UPDATE TO REARRANGE THE HIGHER POPS CENTRAL/NORTH AREAS. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWING AN INTENSIFYING CLUSTER OF STORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF ABQ/BELEN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY SHIFTING NORTHWARD OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS LATE TONIGHT. RADAR ALSO SHOWING SOME SPECKLED LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE SE PLAINS. WILL GO WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY FOR THIS AREA. HRRR NOT REALLY SHOWING IT THERE HOWEVER...SO HEDGING THE BETS A LITTLE. EITHER WAY...POPULATION CENTERS FROM SOCORRO TO SANTA FE COULD VERY WELL BE AWOKEN BY SOME THUNDER TONIGHT. 50 && .PREV DISCUSSION...605 PM MDT FRI JUN 12 2015... .AVIATION... 00Z TAF CYCLE LATEST HI-RES MODELS SHOWING SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS EVENING ACROSS SW NM AND MOVING NE TOWARD KABQ. SOME -SHRA IN THE AREA NOW...SO ITS FEASIBLE. WILL LEAVE A VCSH IN KABQ/KAEG FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS SHOULD DRAW UP MOISTURE THIS EVE AND OVERNIGHT. AS IT REACHES THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...COULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND/OR CONVECTION DEVELOP. MODELS INDICATING A SMALL COMPLEX OF STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS EC NM AFT 06Z AND MOVING EAST THRU SUNRISE. OTHERWISE..IFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE PLAINS MAINLY AFT 06Z THRU APPROX 15Z. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED SAT AFTN ACROSS MUCH OF N AND E NM. 34 && .PREV DISCUSSION...331 PM MDT FRI JUN 12 2015... .SYNOPSIS... A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. A MOIST BACK DOOR FRONT SURGING SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE STATE TODAY WILL FOCUS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS WEEKEND. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP OVER THE STATE AND LEAD TO A SLOW DRYING AND WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK. THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA MAY SEE THEIR FIRST MID TO UPPER 90S THIS YEAR. && .DISCUSSION... AXIS OF MOIST INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL FORCING FOR TORNADO THREAT IS WAIVERING ALONG THE TEXAS STATE LINE W/ ROOSEVELT COUNTY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TORNADO WATCH CANCELLED WELL BEFORE 9PM. THREAT COULD CONTINUE FOR SOUTHEAST ROOSEVELT IF AXIS BACKS WEST WITH OUTFLOW WINDS FROM STORMS IN TEXAS. OTHERWISE... THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AND LCL HVY RAIN WILL BE OVER THE NE PLAINS AND IN THE AREA AROUND SOCORRO...TORRANCE...AND LINCOLN COUNTIES THIS EVENING. OVERALL NO BIG CHANGES ADVERTISED FROM MODEL TRENDS TODAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH SAGGING SOUTHWARD COULD ARGUABLY BE FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS TRENDS AND RESULTS IN FOCUS FOR HIGHEST POPS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A WELL-DEVELOPED DRYLINE IS ALSO MORE EVIDENT OVER THE FAR SE PLAINS IN THIS PATTERN SO POTENTIAL FOR SVR STORMS IS A BIT HIGHER... ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. QPF VALUES PER WPC INDICATES SOME FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS OVER THE EAST. BY MONDAY THE THREAT FOR LCL HVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING FOCUSES WESTWARD ALONG THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AS A BACK DOOR FRONT SLIDES WEST UNDERNEATH A DEVELOPING UPPER HIGH. THIS 591DM H5 RIDGE WILL WEAKEN STEERING FLOW AND ALLOW FOR MORE MATURE TERRAIN DRIVEN CIRCULATIONS TO CREATE A MORE MONSOONAL PATTERN THRU TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...DRIER AIR AND WARMING TEMPS WILL SLIDE INTO WESTERN NM. JUST ABOUT EVERYONE SEES HOTTER TEMPS AND DRIER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THRU THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS TO NEAR 594DM OVER AZ/SOCAL. 700MB TEMPS RISE TO BTWN +18C AND +20C OVER NM...WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE HOTTEST READINGS SO FAR THIS YEAR FOR MANY FOLKS. MID TO UPPER 90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE ABQ METRO WEDNESDAY AND/OR THURSDAY. GUYER && .FIRE WEATHER... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AND DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. IT WILL WORK WITH MOISTURE CURRENTLY BEING DELIVERED BY A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE THE BEST COVERAGE OF WETTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN AREAS AND THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. SPOTTIER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL TO AS MUCH AS 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ARE EXPECTED. VENTILATION WILL GENERALLY BE GOOD OR BETTER...EXCEPT FOR A FEW POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION SUNDAY IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF CLAYTON TO CONCHAS AND TUCUMCARI. ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST MONDAY...AND A MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SE US WILL FUNNEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD OUT MEXICO OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP WETTING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST MAINLY EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY SOUTH OF I-40 IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND MANZANO AND GALLINAS MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS MUCH OF ROOSEVELT COUNTY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD USHER IN DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST WITH A DOWNTICK IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WEDNESDAY INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE COMING WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND UPWARD REACHING ABOVE NORMAL AREAWIDE THURSDAY. 44 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 50
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
336 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD WILL CREATE HOT TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL EXCEED 100 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND...POTENTIALLY REACHING 105 DEGREES FOR SEVERAL DAYS NEXT WEEK. SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALOFT WILL BRING HIGH HEAT TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TODAY. ALTHOUGH NO RECORD HIGHS ARE EXPECTED...LOWER TO MID 90S SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD. EVEN THE BEACHES SHOULD REACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED 90 DEGREES TODAY. COUPLE THIS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S AND IT WILL FEEL AS IF IT IS AROUND 100 DEGREES...UP TO 102. THIS WILL NOT QUITE MEET HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT WILL HEIGHTEN AWARENESS BY REISSUING AN SPS. MUGGY TONIGHT AS WELL...WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S. A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL MAKE A PUSH ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. AT THE SAME TIME THE SEABREEZE WILL SHARPEN...BUT AS IT ATTEMPTS TO PUSH INLAND...IT SHOULD ENCOUNTER RESISTANCE GIVEN THE W AND NW FLOW IN THE LOWEST 5 KFT. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE BOUNDARY WILL BE PINNED VERY NEAR THE COAST. ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES COUPLED WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT IN THE COLUMN...NEAR TWO INCHES...AND MIXED CAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG...SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SET OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS. THE WARMER AIR ALOFT...AROUND 15000 FT...DEVELOPS A CAPPING INVERSION LATE AFTERNOON AND EVE AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO SQUASH CONVECTION AND WOULD NOT EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER PAST THE EARLY EVE. LIFT REMAINS RATHER SHALLOW PER TIME HEIGHT ANALYSIS AND THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SUBSIDENCE ABOVE 8-10 KFT. HOWEVER...THERE IS ALSO A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW THAT MOVES BY JUST TO OUR N. THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE WILL SKIRT OUR MORE NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING. THE HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR IS SHOWING CONSIDERABLE AFTERNOON CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE AND WILL MAINTAIN SMALL POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...FAVORING THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...MID-SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE SHORT TERM AS BERMUDA HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE COMBINE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WEAKNESS WHICH HAS BEEN PROGGED OVER THE NE PERIPHERY OF THE GROWING RIDGE THIS PERIOD HAS WEAKENED IN GUIDANCE...AND THUS EVEN LESS CHANCE FOR ANY COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA. STILL EXPECT A WIND SHIFT AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE AREA...BUT ANY ACTUAL TEMP ADVECTION WILL REMAIN DISPLACED WELL NE OF THE AREA. SO...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY TURN TO THE NW SUNDAY AND MONDAY...IT WILL DO NOTHING TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM SOARING TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS. HIGHS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL RISE INTO THE MID AND UPR 90S...EVEN AROUND 90 AT THE BEACH...WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID 70S...AROUND 80 AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH NEAR 70 DEWPOINTS WILL DRIVE HEAT INDEX VALUES TO 100-105 DEGREES...AND IT IS POSSIBLE SOME AREAS MAY NEED A HEAT ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME THAT IS NOT BEING FORECAST. THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO FORCING FOR CONVECTION...AND A MID-LEVEL CAP WILL BE PRESENT THANKS TO THE SUBSIDENT RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE SEA BREEZE COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO DRIVE PARCELS THROUGH THE CAP...AND SREF PROBS SHOW A GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FOR THIS REASON WILL MAINTAIN THE INHERITED SCHC POP EACH AFTN...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT STORY OF THE EXTENDED. LARGE 500MB RIDGE WILL REMAIN DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THROUGH THE WEEK...WHILE BERMUDA HIGH SPINS OFFSHORE. THESE TWO FACTORS WILL MAINTAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DANGEROUS HEAT AT LEAST THROUGH MID-WEEK...AND HEAT ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE MON/TUE/WED FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES. LATE WEEK MAY BRING SUBTLE CHANGE AS A MID- LEVEL LOW...POSSIBLY OF TROPICAL ORIGIN...ROTATES AROUND THE RIDGE AND WILL TRY TO BREAK IT DOWN ON ITS NORTHERN PERIPHERY. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF IMPACTS FROM THIS MOISTURE WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA...SOME SUBTLE HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE PERIOD SO WILL SHOW SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS THU/FRI BUT REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-JUNE. POP WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT MAY INCREASE LATE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOWERED THICKNESSES ALLOWING FOR BETTER CONVECTIVE CHANCES. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA. EXPECT A GRADUAL CLEARING OF SKIES AS VFR PREVAILS OVERNIGHT AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 12 KT PREVAIL. WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT AND MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD TRANSITION FROM SCT TO FEW. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT VFR WITH AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG THE SEABREEZE. AS A RESULT COULD SEE EXTREMELY BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AOB 15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE EARLY. INTO THE EVENING HOURS...CONVECTION WILL TAPER OFF AND WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AOB 5 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH MAINLY VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...NOCTURNAL JETTING WILL WANE THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS AND EVENTUALLY SEAS TO SUBSIDE. WILL INITIALIZE WITH A SCEC FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS FOR SEAS UP TO 5 FT AND SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 20 KT. A SEABREEZE BOUNDARY WILL BE PINNED RATHER CLOSE TO THE COAST LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE NW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. SW WINDS WILL VEER TO MORE WESTERLY TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE. THE STRONGEST WINDS THIS MORNING...UP TO 20 KT WILL DECREASE TO 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE AND 10 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT. SEAS UP TO 4 TO 5 FT THIS MORNING WILL SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 4 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND TO 2 TO 3 FT TONIGHT. A WEAK 10 TO 12 SECOND SWELL WILL REMAIN. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL PERSIST AS THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AND ALTHOUGH SUBTLE VARIATIONS IN WIND ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO WEAK TROUGHS EACH DAY...SW WILL BE THE PRIMARY WIND DIRECTION. SUNDAY...THESE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...AROUND 10 KTS...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT AND LOCAL BACKING DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...BECOMING AROUND 15 KTS ALL WATERS. SEAS WILL FEATURE A VARIETY OF WAVE GROUPS...BUT WILL REMAIN OF RATHER LOW AMPLITUDE. EXPECT PRIMARILY 2 FT SEASON SUNDAY...BUILDING TO 3 FT MONDAY THANKS TO THE STRONGER WIND-WAVE CONTRIBUTION. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH SW WINDS AROUND THIS FEATURE CONTINUING OVER THE WATERS. THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...SO WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 10-15 KTS TUESDAY...INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KTS OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON WEDNESDAY. THE WAVE SPECTRUM WILL HAVE A VARIETY OF LOW- AMPLITUDE WAVE GROUPS EACH DAY...BUT THE SW WIND-WAVE WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY...DRIVING SEAS FROM 2-3 FT TUESDAY TO 3-4 FT ON WEDNESDAY. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDW NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...RJD MARINE...RJD/JDW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
104 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 104 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015 MAIN CHANGES WITH UPDATE WERE TO ADJUST POPS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...WHICH INVOLVE A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED INTO MCKENZIE COUNTY AND ANOTHER AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST ND. BLENDED POPS TOWARD HRRR GUIDANCE WHICH SEEMED TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON COVERAGE. SPC MESO PAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG 0-6KM SHEAR ON ORDER OF 40-50KTS ACROSS THE WEST WITH MU CAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG. SPOTTER REPORT ON STORM IN MCKENZIE REPORTED SMALLER THAN PEA SIZE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN. UPDATE ISSUED AT 921 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015 MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF NORTH DAKOTA WITH INCREASING BULK SHEAR MOVING IN FROM EASTERN MONTANA. FORECAST CONVECTION FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA NEVER MATERIALIZED EXCEPT FOR ONE STRONGER CELL OVER DIVIDE COUNTY. HIRES MODELS HAD A HARD TIME WITH THIS CONVECTION AND ARE STILL TRYING TO FIRE CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND TRACKING IT ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ATMOSPHERE HERE IS STILL SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AND CAN NOT DISCOUNT A SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM. BUT HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND JUST KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL. THERE IS STILL A RIGH MOVING SUPERCELLS OVER SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN THAT COULD MOVE INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS EVENING IF IT CONTINUES TO HOLD TOGETHER. HIRES MODEL DO SEEM TO BE CAPTURING THE CONVECTION THAT FIRED OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN MONTANA EARLY THIS EVENING. CONVECTION IS STILL HOLDING TOGETHER AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA. STILL MUCAPES ABOVE 1000J/KG OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WITH BULK SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS MOVING INTO THIS SAME AREA. WITH STABILIZING LOWER ATMOSPHERE THIS EVENING...AND A STRONGER CAP AS YOU MOVE INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL...THINK THE RISK OF SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE WANING AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUS WILL REMOVE THE SEVERE WORDING BUT WILL KEEP SOME HIGHER POPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015 UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND EASTERN MONTANA BUT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE SLOWER TO STEEPEN. BISMARCK 00 UTC 13JUN SOUNDING SHOWS A PRETTY GOOD CAP BETWEEN 850 AND 700MB WITH QUITE DRY AIR ABOVE THE CAP. CURRENT CONVECTION IS VERY ISOLATED ALONG THE PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH AND HIRES MODELS HAVE BEEN OVERDOING THE CONVECTION EXTENDING SOUTH INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND BACK WEST INTO MONTANA. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS LOWER THIS EVENING BASED ON LATEST RADAR. STILL KEPT A MENTION OF SEVERE THIS EVENING WEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL DUE TO THE VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND BULK SHEAR WHICH WILL BE INCREASING THIS EVENING WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. IF CONVECTION FIRES OVER EASTERN MONTANA THIS EVENING COULD STILL SEE SOME STRONGER STORMS MOVE INTO THE FAR WEST LATE THIS EVENING. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015 MAIN HIGHLIGHT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. LATEST SUITE OF SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH THE SURFACE ANALYSIS PINPOINTS THE COLD FRONT FROM NEAR CYBU/NIPAWIN SASKATCHEWAN TO CYQR/REGINA SASKATCHEWAN...STRETCHING SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA...JUST WEST OF GLASGOW. A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR WOLF POINT TO JORDAN MONTANA. LINE OF CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING SOUTH INTO CROSBY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH A PATCHY CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH DEWPOINTS TO NEAR 60F COMMON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LACKING...BUT SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE OF 2000 J/KG WITH 30KT TO 35KT 0-6KM SHEAR ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. THE LATEST HRRR MAINTAINS ISOLATED CONVECTION INITIATING BETWEEN 21Z AND 22Z IN THE NORTHWEST WITH SOME SEMBLANCE OF A LINE DEVELOPING FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE PRE FRONTAL TROUGH BY 23Z. WOULD APPEAR THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AS IT MOVES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WITH CAPE/SHEAR ALIGNMENT AND COLD FRONTAL/PRE TROUGH TIMING LATE THIS AFTERNOON...COULD SEE A COUPLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING WIDESPREAD AT THIS TIME. THE GFS IS ABOUT 3 TO 5 HOURS FASTER THAN THE NAM12 SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER DESPITE TIMING DIFFERENCES...THE MAIN MESSAGE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT SATURDAY WITH A FEW POSSIBLY SEVERE...REMAINS ON TRACK. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015 ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY EVENING ALONG A SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT (SEE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION ABOVE). THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES GENERATING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION ABOVE...A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF MY CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST. A FEW SEVERE STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN 1-2K J/KG OF MUCAPE AND 40KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS MY SOUTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS AND ENERGY ALOFT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. INSTABILITY DECREASES AFTER 06Z SUNDAY MORNING AND SO WILL THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. LULL IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO NORTH DAKOTA. THEREAFTER A SERIES OF EMBEDDED WAVES MOVING EAST THROUGH THE REGION COUPLED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET ALOFT WILL SEE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LOW FOR MID-JUNE AS THE JET ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A COOLER AIRMASS TO NUDGE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK MAINLY IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 104 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015 MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALTHOUGH BRIEF MVFR CONDITONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR ANY LOCATIONS DIRECTLY UNDER THUNDERSTORMS. AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE...WINDS WILL VEER FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A VCTS IN ALL TERMINALS. KJMS WILL NOT HAVE A THREAT UNTIL AFTER 18Z SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD...RATHER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT TIMES. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JNS SHORT TERM...KS LONG TERM...NH AVIATION...JNS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
404 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN PARKED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. PENNSYLVANIA WILL REMAIN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER RIDGE WITH A SURFACE FRONT OSCILLATING OVER THE STATE. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING WITH IT A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST DAYS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... RADAR LOOP AT 06Z SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80 ASSOC WITH COLD FRONT. PARENT SHORTWAVE IS PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE STATE AND UPPER LVL FLOW IS FROM THE WEST. THUS...EXPECT FRONT TO STALL OUT AS IT PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN PA TOWARD DAWN. UPSTREAM OVR OHIO AND WESTERN PA...OVERRUNNING OF QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS PRODUCING SCT SHRA ACROSS OHIO/WESTERN PA AT 06Z. LATEST NEAR TERM MDL DATA IMPLIES AN INCREASING CHC OF SHRA ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS/SC MTNS TOWARD DAWN...AS LL JET OVERRUNS BOUNDARY. CAN/T EVEN RULE OUT A TSRA TOWARD DAWN OVR SOMERSET/BEDFORD COS...WHERE RAP/NAM CAPES BTWN 500-1000 J/KG. TEMPS SHOULD SLIP BACK TO ARND 60F ACROSS THE N TIER BEHIND COLD FRONT. FURTHER SOUTH...EXPECT READINGS TO BOTTOM OUT NR 70F ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM MDL DATA INDICATES FRONT WILL STALL OUT ROUGHLY FROM KDUJ TO KTHV. FOCUS OF CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY TODAY. TO THE NORTHEAST...A PUSH OF DRIER AIR IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY CONDS NE OF KBFD AND KMDT. LATEST RAP OUTPUT SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER AND SCT SHOWERS THRU EARLY AFTN WILL HOLD DOWN TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...LATEST NAM/RAP IMPLY SOME BRIGHTENING BY MID AFTN. ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS INDICATE POTENTIAL HIGH TEMPS FROM THE U70S TO M80S...GIVEN ENOUGH SUNSHINE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SCT LATE DAY TSRA ACROSS THE SW COUNTIES...WHERE GEFS CAPES TOP OUT NR 1500 J/KG. WEAK SHEAR PROFILES AND LIMITED DCAPE IMPLY A LOW CHC OF SVR WEATHER. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... LITTLE CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST TODAY AS THE PROVERBIAL RING OF FIRE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE SOUTHEAST CONUS UPPER RIDGE WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS CENTRAL PA FROM MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND THROUGH MID WEEK. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY PROVIDE SOME DRYING AND BY LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT WITH ONLY A 1020MB SFC HIGH PROGGED TO CROSS THE NORTHERN GLAKES REGION...PERSISTENCE FORECAST IS LIKELY THE BEST ONE WITH ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS INDICATED THROUGH THE END OF THE COMING WEEK. AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN THIS PATTERN...AS WELL AS ABOVE NORMAL MIN TEMPS BASED ON WELL ABOVE NORMAL PW. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE QUITE SUMMERLIKE...WITH VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS AND DAILY CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. BEST CHC FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH STRONG 5H TROFS FLATTENING AND ULTIMATELY DISPLACING THE SPRAWLING SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES UPPER RIDGE OFFSHORE BY LATE IN THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL PA BEFORE STALLING SAT AFT. NORTH OF THE FRONT /KBFD/...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...LIFTING TO MVFR/VFR BY SAT AFT. LOWER CIGS WILL WORK INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS BY SUNRISE. AS A LL JET OVERRUNS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SCT SHRA WILL WORK INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS/SC MTNS TOWARD DAWN. AN ISOLATED TSTM CAN/T BE RULED OUT NEAR KJST-KAOO WHERE RAP/NAM CAPES BTWN 500-1000 J/KG. RESTRICTIONS SHOULD LIFT BETWEEN 15 TO 18Z. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT ROUGHLY FROM KDUJ TO KTHV. FOCUS OF CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY ON SAT...WITH BEST PROB OF TSTM IMPACTS AT KJST-KAOO. OUTLOOK... SAT...CIG RESTRICTIONS NORTH AND WEST IN THE MORNING. SCT CIG/VSBY IMPACTS FROM SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY SOUTHWEST THIRD OF PENN. SUN...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS MAINLY WEST. SCT SHOWERS/ISO TSTMS WITH LOCAL IMPACTS EAST. MON...CIG REDUCTIONS NW. PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE. TUE...CIG REDUCTIONS NW. LOCAL PM TSRA IMPACTS...MAINLY SW HALF. WED...NO SIG WX. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT LONG TERM...DEVOIR AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
244 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN PARKED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. PENNSYLVANIA WILL REMAIN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER RIDGE WITH A SURFACE FRONT OSCILLATING OVER THE STATE. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING WITH IT A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST DAYS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... RADAR LOOP AT 06Z SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80 ASSOC WITH COLD FRONT. PARENT SHORTWAVE IS PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE STATE AND UPPER LVL FLOW IS FROM THE WEST. THUS...EXPECT FRONT TO STALL OUT AS IT PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN PA TOWARD DAWN. UPSTREAM OVR OHIO AND WESTERN PA...OVERRUNNING OF QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS PRODUCING SCT SHRA ACROSS OHIO/WESTERN PA AT 06Z. LATEST NEAR TERM MDL DATA IMPLIES AN INCREASING CHC OF SHRA ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS/SC MTNS TOWARD DAWN...AS LL JET OVERRUNS BOUNDARY. CAN/T EVEN RULE OUT A TSRA TOWARD DAWN OVR SOMERSET/BEDFORD COS...WHERE RAP/NAM CAPES BTWN 500-1000 J/KG. TEMPS SHOULD SLIP BACK TO ARND 60F ACROSS THE N TIER BEHIND COLD FRONT. FURTHER SOUTH...EXPECT READINGS TO BOTTOM OUT NR 70F ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM MDL DATA INDICATES FRONT WILL STALL OUT ROUGHLY FROM KDUJ TO KTHV. FOCUS OF CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY TODAY. TO THE NORTHEAST...A PUSH OF DRIER AIR IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY CONDS NE OF KBFD AND KMDT. LATEST RAP OUTPUT SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER AND SCT SHOWERS THRU EARLY AFTN WILL HOLD DOWN TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...LATEST NAM/RAP IMPLY SOME BRIGHTENING BY MID AFTN. ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS INDICATE POTENTIAL HIGH TEMPS FROM THE U70S TO M80S...GIVEN ENOUGH SUNSHINE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SCT LATE DAY TSRA ACROSS THE SW COUNTIES...WHERE GEFS CAPES TOP OUT NR 1500 J/KG. WEAK SHEAR PROFILES AND LIMITED DCAPE IMPLY A LOW CHC OF SVR WEATHER. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... LITTLE CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST TODAY AS THE PROVERBIAL RING OF FIRE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE SOUTHEAST CONUS UPPER RIDGE WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS CENTRAL PA FROM MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND THROUGH MID WEEK. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY PROVIDE SOME DRYING AND BY LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT WITH ONLY A 1020MB SFC HIGH PROGGED TO CROSS THE NORTHERN GLAKES REGION...PERSISTENCE FORECAST IS LIKELY THE BEST ONE WITH ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS INDICATED THROUGH THE END OF THE COMING WEEK. AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN THIS PATTERN...AS WELL AS ABOVE NORMAL MIN TEMPS BASED ON WELL ABOVE NORMAL PW. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE QUITE SUMMERLIKE...WITH VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS AND DAILY CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. BEST CHC FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH STRONG 5H TROFS FLATTENING AND ULTIMATELY DISPLACING THE SPRAWLING SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES UPPER RIDGE OFFSHORE BY LATE IN THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE STALLED COLD FRONT AND THE RESULTANT LIGHT WINDS...ALONG WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE DUE TO TODAYS PRECIPITATION SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOCALIZED IFR TO LIFR IN FOG TO BE LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY MORNING. MDT AND LNS ARE MORE THAN LIKELY GOING TO SEE MVFR VSBYS...WITH UNV...IPT...BFD...JST IN PERIODS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS. RESTRICTIONS SHOULD LIFT BETWEEN 15 TO 18Z AT THE LATEST WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OUTLOOK... SAT...ISOLD MVFR IMPACTS POSS FROM SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY SOUTHWEST THIRD OF PENN. SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. MON...PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W MTNS. TUE AND WED...PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY SOUTH. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT LONG TERM...DEVOIR AVIATION...CERU CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
142 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 .SYNOPSIS... DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS LEADING TO AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES OCCURRING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AS OF 135 AM...THE REMNANTS OF EVENING SHOWERS HAVE FINALLY DISSIPATED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE... ACTIVITY EXTENDING FROM ATLANTA METRO INTO THE CSRA IS CONSISTENTLY DISSIPATING AS IT PUSHES NORTH. POPS WILL REMAIN SLIGHT CHANCE AT BEST THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE OVERNIGHT. CONSIDERABLE MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER...ELEVATED DEWPOINTS AND PERSISTENT S/SW SURFACE WINDS WILL YIELD MIN TEMPS AT LEAST 5 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO. AS OF 1030 PM EDT...A LATE EVENING ROUND OF WEAK CONVECTIVE TRIGGERING HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS FROM HENDERSONVILLE TO LAKE LURE. THE LATEST HRRR RUN ALLOWS THIS CONVECTION TO SURVIVE ACROSS THE SRN FOOTHILLS BEFORE DIMINISHING IN THE WANING INSTABILITY OVER THE FAR WRN PIEDMONT SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE...WILL TAPER POPS DOWN TO ISOLATED AND KEEP OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN MTNS NEAR THE TN BORDER IN LINGERING WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. STILL EXPECT MINS TO BE SOME 2 TO 3 CATEGORIES ABOVE CLIMO OVERNIGHT. LESS LOW STRATUS IS ANTICIPATED THAN LAST NIGHT GIVEN THE MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT IN THE FLOW...BUT PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTN VALLEYS. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MAKE SOME WESTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL REDUCE THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...THOUGH ACTIVITY IS STILL EXPECTED NEAR AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. MAXES SHOULD RUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO AS THE UPCOMING HOT SPELL GETS STARTED. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 215 PM EDT FRIDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING IN ACRS THE SOUTHEAST STATES LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WORKWEEK. THIS RESULTS IN BELOW AVERAGE COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. WITH THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE IN THE LOW LEVELS ACROSS GA TO THE TN VALLEY...THE CAROLINAS WILL BE UNDER A WEAK...YET PERSISTENT NWLY FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME DOWNSLOPE ENHANCING OF TEMPS AND MIXING OUT OF DWPTS THAT WILL LIMIT CONVECTION EAST OF THE MTNS. SO I WILL FCST THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE MTNS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH JUST ISOLD COVERAGE ACRS THE PIEDMONT. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LWR-MID 90S SUNDAY...AND SOLIDLY IN THE MID-UPR 90S MONDAY. THESE HIGHS WILL BE APPROACHING RECORD HIGHS...BUT LOOK A BIT SHORT BASED ON THE CURRENT FCST. DWPTS IN THE 60S BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS RESULTS IN HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING TRIPLE DIGITS ACRS THE LOWER PIEDMONT SOUTHEAST OF I-85. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 230 PM EDT FRIDAY...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS LOOK TO CONTINUE THRU THE MEDIUM RANGE...AS MODELS SHOW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DOMINATING THE SOUTHEAST STATES THRU THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT...WHICH SHUD ALLOW TEMPS TO BE NOT AS HOT BY MIDWEEK. ALSO...MODELS SHOW A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT SAG SOUTH ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC TUE-WED...PERHAPS HELPING INCREASE CONVECTION COVERAGE BACK TO MID JUNE NORMALS. HOWEVER...BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ECWMF LIFT THE FRONT BACK NORTH BY THURSDAY...AS THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES AGAIN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. SO WHILE I HAVE GONE WITH THE SUPERBLEND POPS...THEY MAY BE OVERDONE GIVEN THE OP MODELS DEPICTION OF THE UPPER RIDGE FOR WED-FRI. ONE OTHER CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE HEAT INDEX...AS A SUBTLE INCREASE IN DEWPTS MAY ALLOW HEAT INDEX VALUES TO GET CLOSE TO THE 105 THRESHOLD FOR HEAT ADVISORY. THE LATEST WPC HEAT INDEX OUTLOOKS DO NOT HAVE THE 105F PROBS ABOVE 40% ANY DAY NEXT WEEK IN OUR AREA. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AT KCLT AND THE UPSTATE SC TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OCCL SCT/BKN CLOUDS AT AROUND 10 KFT. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A TS OR TWO ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIMITED AND NO TAF MENTION IS WARRANTED ATTM. OTHERWISE...LIGHT S/SW WINDS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME WESTERLY...AND PERHAPS NW BY NOON OR SO. ELSEWHERE...BRIEF LIFR CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED AT KAVL EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THESE SHOULD MOVE IN AND OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE SETTLING IN AT LIFR BY AROUND 08Z. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR NO LATER THAN 15Z. AT KHKY...CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN IN THE MTN VALLEYS... STILL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VISBY AT AROUND 12Z. TEMPOS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A TS OR TWO ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE A BIT LESS THAN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...AND NO TAF MENTION APPEARS WARRANTED ATTM. OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST IN A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTN SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE...ESP OVER THE MTNS. MORNING RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG AND/OR STRATUS MAY ALSO OCCUR...PARTICULARLY WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL IN TSRA THE PREVIOUS DAY. CONFIDENCE TABLE... 05-11Z 11-17Z 17-23Z 23-00Z KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 94% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE) WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SBK NEAR TERM...HG/JDL SHORT TERM...ARK LONG TERM...ARK AVIATION...JDL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
413 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015 .DISCUSSION... CURRENTLY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS MORNING WITH THE MIDSOUTH ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE. THERE IS AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST WEST TN THAT HAS BEEN EXPANDING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS ALONG WITH ANOTHER AREA OVER NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS. OTRW SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. TEMPS ARE MILD...IN THE LOWER 70S WITH A LIGHT SOUTH WIND. TODAY...LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND THIS MORNING AND HI RES MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARD SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-55 THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT. CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP SOME AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH HEATING TRIGGERING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. BETTER CHANCES WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIVER...ON THE EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER TODAY THANKS TO MORE MORNING CLOUD COVER...AROUND 90. THIS EVENING...LEFT SOME HIGHER POPS ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS IN THE EVENING WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DISSIPATING BY MID-EVENING. LOWS WILL BE MILD AGAIN WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...SIMILAR TO TODAY...MAYBE A LITTLE LESS AFTN/EVENING COVERAGE SINCE THE RIDGE IS A LITTLE STRONGER. TEMPS AROUND 90. LOWS 70 TO 75. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MORE OF THE SAME MONDAY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. IN CONTROL AND THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HOURS. TEMPS WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER SINCE THE UPPER RIDGE IS STRONGEST ON MONDAY. THINGS GET A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING ON TUESDAY. THE 00Z GFS WANTS TO BRING A SYSTEM OUT OF THE NORTHERN GULF INTO THE ARKLATEX TUESDAY AFTN. SOME THE GFS ENSEMBLES ALSO HAVE THIS FEATURE MOVING NORTH THOUGH THE ECMWF AND THE NAM PUSH IT WEST INTO THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST. CURRENT FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE ECMWF/NAM SOLUTION WHICH IS BASICALLY PERSISTENCE. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM SINCE IF IT DOES MOVE NORTH INTO THE AREA IT COULD RESULT IN A HEAVY RAIN THREAT ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE MIDSOUTH. WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE GFS BRINGS THE REMNANTS OF THE GULF COAST SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS A WEAK UPPER TROF INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. EITHER WAY AN INCREASE IN POPS WARRANTED FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. A COUPLE OTHER DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH DURING THE END OF THE WEEK WHICH SLIGHTLY ELEVATES RAIN CHANCES. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS WED- FRI...MOSTLY UPPER 80S ALTHOUGH STILL HUMID. UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO RESTRENGTHEN ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND WITH TEMPS BACK INTO THE 90S. SJM && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFS PRIMARY CONCERN IS OVERNIGHT CIGS. PATCHY IFR CIGS WERE SHOWING UP OVER NORTHEAST MS LATE THIS EVENING...LIKELY AIDED BY WARM ADVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL RAIN COOLED AIRMASS. 00Z HRRR SUGGEST SOME MVFR CIGS MAY WORK UP THE TN RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL PATCHY MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH TOWARD MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO TSRA POTENTIAL DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF A MEM/MKL LINE. PWB && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. MO...NONE. MS...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1143 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015 .UPDATE... UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 904 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015/ UPDATE... NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTH MS GIVEN THE LOW CLOUD DECK REPORTED NEAR TUP. ALSO...INCREASED POPS INTO SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR/WEST TN. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS CONTINUING. TVT PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015/ UPDATE... UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015/ DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO PLACE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. REGIONAL WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE GULF AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MISSOURI ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AS OF 3 PM CDT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ARE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI MAY CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH TONIGHT TOWARDS THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT...PERHAPS REACHING SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE AND EAST ARKANSAS BEFORE DIMINISHING. OTHERWISE...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH ACROSS THE MID SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL RETROGRADE WEST SOMEWHAT WITH THE BETTER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OCCURRING ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND LESSER CHANCES TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE RIVER. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO SERVE AS ANOTHER TRIGGERING MECHANISM FOR ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THINK THE BEST COVERAGE AND CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS THEREAFTER AS INSTABILITY WANES. LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH BEING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST AND A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO APPROACH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS MAY SERVE TO INCREASE CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH NEXT WEEK AND SUBSEQUENT HIGHER END CHANCE POPS SEEM REASONABLE AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL BE SIMILAR WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MIDDLE 70S. CJC && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFS PRIMARY CONCERN IS OVERNIGHT CIGS. PATCHY IFR CIGS WERE SHOWING UP OVER NORTHEAST MS LATE THIS EVENING...LIKELY AIDED BY WARM ADVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL RAIN COOLED AIRMASS. 00Z HRRR SUGGEST SOME MVFR CIGS MAY WORK UP THE TN RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL PATCHY MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH TOWARD MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO TSRA POTENTIAL DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF A MEM/MKL LINE. PWB && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. MO...NONE. MS...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
1256 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015 .DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. && .AVIATION...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES AS WELL AS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE TOPS OF THE CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. CEILINGS WERE NEAR 1600FT AT KT65. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP SATURDAY MORNING WITH STREAMER SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS AND MOVING INLAND WITH THE SEABREEZE FRONT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015/ DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL MUCH OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS DAYTIME HEATING ENDS AND THE CUMULUS FIELD DISSIPATES. INCREASING GULF MOISTURE AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST WIND TO ALLOW FOR STREAMER SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS WILL BE DIRECTED TOWARDS THE LOWER AND MID RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND MAY DIRECTLY IMPACT THE THREE TERMINALS. PROBABILITIES ARE LOW BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO AT MENTION VICINITY SHOWERS AT KBRO AT THIS TIME. LATER TAF PACKAGES MAY NEED TO ADD VCSH TO KHRL AND KMFE. THERE MAY BE A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH STREAMER SHOWERS. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND TO PERSIST TONIGHT INCREASING SATURDAY GUSTING 20-25 KNOTS. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015/ SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...IN THE IMMEDIATE TERM THE SEABREEZE ACTIVATED EARLIER THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG IT MOVING NORTHWESTWARD. TAKING A LOOK AT THE HRRR AND RAP BOTH MODELS KEEP THIS ACTIVITY GOING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS THEN DISSIPATING AROUND SUNSET AS THE SEABREEZE AND FORCING WEAKENS. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY LIGHTNING AND HAS BEEN ISOLATED IN NATURE AND PROGRESSING NORTHWESTWARD SO AMOUNTS OF ONE QUARTER INCH OR LESS. THE ATMOSPHERE IS FAIRLY DRY IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WITH MOST MOISTURE CENTERED AT 850MB AND BELOW. PWATS ON THE 12Z SOUNDING WERE 1.85 INCHES HERE AT BRO. ONCE THE SUN GOES DOWN THE FORCING WEAKENS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES GO DOWN TO AROUND 10% WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GULF WATERS WHERE CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE BECOMING A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY OVERNIGHT AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S. SATURDAY WILL BE A REPEAT OF TODAY JUST WITH A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE I EXPECT TO SEE WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND HAVE RAISED POP CHANCES TO CHANCE ALONG THE SEABREEZE AND TRACKED THAT POP CHANCE INLAND AFT 18Z CORRESPONDING TO THE MOVEMENT OF THE SEABREEZE. MAY EVEN EXPERIENCE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN RIO GRANDE RIVER AREA IN ZAPATA COUNTY BY SUNSET. ANOTHER HOT AND MUGGY DAY IN STORE WITH HEAT INDICIES OR FEELS LIKE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 100S. LONG TERM.../SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...STILL CONTINUING TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WHICH MOVES SLOWLY TOWARDS THE WEST. THIS LOW WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY PENETRATING THE LAST OF THE DEEP DRY AIR WHICH HANGS ON ABOVE THE 700 MB LEVEL THROUGH SUNDAY AS SUBSIDENCE HOLDS. WEAK UPPER TROUGH SLIDING INTO NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY EVENING DOES LITTLE MORE THAN MAINTAIN GUSTY SOUTHEAST FLOW WHICH IS GENERALLY NOT CONDUCIVE TO PRECIP AFTER MIDDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 77...IF MORNING CONVECTION DEVELOPS. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR POPS REMAIN OVER THE GULF WATERS AND COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH MONDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES SHOW UP SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH THE GFS HOLDING EXPANDING RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WITH A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ECMWF IS NOT DETECTING A STRONG LOW LIKE THE GFS AT THIS TIME. THE MAIN IMPACTS AT THIS TIME WILL BE THE INCREASE OF A MORE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER POPS OFFSHORE. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE CONTENT IS DEPICTED IN THE MODELS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2.14 INCHES WITH MORE DEEPER MOISTURE EVEN UP TO 700 MB. THIS WILL RESULT IN GREATER POTENTIAL FOR RAIN ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HAVE FOCUSED HIGHEST CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS LIKELY TO BE SPREAD INTO TUESDAY AND PERHAPS THURSDAY AS THINGS EVOLVED. BELIEVE THE ECMWF IS A BIT TOO QUICK TO SHOVE THE DEEPER MOISTURE TOWARD THE SIERRA MADRE NEXT THURSDAY SO HELD ONTO 50/50 CHANCES FOR THE TIME BEING. THE SENSIBLE WEATHER RESULT WOULD BE POCKETS OF NUISANCE URBAN-TYPE FLOODING BUT NO WIDESPREAD RAIN DUMPS...EVEN THOUGH EVERYONE LIKELY TO END UP WITH 1-2 INCHES AS A BASELINE BETWEEN MONDAY AND NEXT FRIDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...ONLY A FEW TWEAKS MAINLY TO NUDGE AFTERNOON VALUES DOWN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NEXT WEEK WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN COVERAGE. MARINE....NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 13 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 17 KNOTS WITH SEAS OF 3.6 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 6 SECONDS AT 14 CDT/19 UTC. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL INTERACT WITH LOWER PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS RESULTING IN MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT AND ACROSS ALL LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE GULF WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...RAIN CHANCES ARE ON THE INCREASE AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS WEST INTO THE GULF WATERS. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK AS IT MOVES SLOWLY. BOTH MODELS ARE DEPICTING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH ASSOCIATED WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS IN THE NEXT MODELS RUNS BUT MAINLY WILL BRING GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH INCREASE SE WINDS. SEAS AS A RESULT WILL BUILD DUE TO THE LONG SE FETCH OVER THE GULF WATERS. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 6 TO 8 FEET FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. SCA ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV 61/52
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1200 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2015 .AVIATION... /06Z TAFS/ No major changes this cycle. Aside from thunderstorms across the Big Country, the main flight weather concern remains MVFR ceilings. Higher clouds may delay stratus return somewhat; however, 09Z onset looks reasonable, given model indications. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 912 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2015/ DISCUSSION... Line of isolated showers and thunderstorms extended along a Sweetwater...Robert Lee...San Angelo...Sonora line at 9 AM, moving east around 20 mph. High resolution HRRR model indicates scattered showers and thunderstorms to move east across the Big Country tonight, with the main focus of storm development over Haskell, Throckmorton and Shackelford counties after midnight. This development is indicated as a larger storm complex with a better cold pool, in the Lamesa and Lubbock areas, moves east. Expect to keep likely rain chances in the Big Country tonight, but may lower pops south of the Big Country down to 20 percent later this evening, with loss of daytime heating. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2015/ AVIATION... /00Z TAFS/ Look for MVFR ceilings to return tonight. Models indicate stratus will return later tonight, with ceilings in the MVFR range. Thunderstorms may develop tonight as well; however, confidence regrading location and timing is too low to add any weather to the terminals this cycle. Expect VFR conditions to return to all terminals around noon tomorrow. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2015/ SHORT TERM... (Tonight and Saturday) Visible satellite and regional radars indicating scattered storms developing along a surface trough along the Texas/New Mexico state line, and across the Trans Pecos and Big Bend Region. Some storms have the potential to become severe as they move east across the South Plains and Permian Basin due to moderate instability and modest 0-6km shear. However, most of the activity should remain west of West Central Texas through early this evening. The only exception is possibly western Crockett County. Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage across much of West Central Texas after 7 PM. The high res models, including HRRR, Tx Tech WRF and ARW are indicating and MCS developing across the Northwest Texas and western Oklahoma. The complex of storms will move east-southeast into the Big Country later this evening and tonight, and going with likely to categorical Pops. Further south, scattered thunderstorms are a good bet across the Concho Valley and Heartland and less rain chances along the I-10 corridor. A few strong to severe storms are possible through mid evening, along and west of a Haskell to Sweetwater to Ozona line. The main hazards will be large hail and damaging winds. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible due to PW values of 1.5 to 1.75 inches. For Saturday, look for a break across much of our area. Looks like the best setup for thunderstorms and possible severe weather will be west of our area, as moderate instability values and some 0-6km shear will exist. However, will keep chance Pops going across the Big Country with slight chance elsewhere. Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. 21 LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Friday) A rather unsettled weather pattern will exist for much of the next week across West Central TX. A moist environment, with little to no cap, will support diurnal convection. However, the lack of a strong forcing mechanism, will result in disorganized afternoon and evening storms, limiting the overall coverage. For this reason, PoPs remain in the 20-30% percent range for most periods. Better rain chances will depend on mesoscale features that are typically poorly handled more than 24-36 hrs out. Synoptically speaking, a slow-moving shortwave trough will move across the southern Plains through early next week. The main wave will continue off to the east, but is progged to leave a "weakness" in the mid-level ridge over the Lone Star State. Weak forcing for ascent associated with this feature will continue the rain chances through at least Wednesday. Abundant moisture, with precipitable water values near 1.50", will prevail during this period. While precipitation coverage should remain limited for the most part, high melting levels and moist air will yield efficient warm rain processes. There remains some disagreement between the ECMWF and GFS regarding how quickly this weakness will fill, with the ridge expanding across the area once again. The ECMWF maintains the unsettled pattern through the work-week while the GFS is a bit quicker building the ridge. These differences are expected to be ironed out in the coming days. Temperatures will remain near to just above climo through early next week with highs in the lower 90s and lows in the lower 70s. A very slight cool-down is anticipated by midweek, but temperatures will still be in the neighborhood of climatology. Johnson && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 73 90 73 90 72 / 60 30 30 30 30 San Angelo 74 93 73 92 71 / 20 20 30 20 30 Junction 74 92 73 91 72 / 20 20 20 20 20 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1133 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015 .DISCUSSION... SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. && .AVIATION... HIGH PW AIR CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO SE TX. SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALMOST ANY TIME OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY BUT A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES BETWEEN 09-15Z. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL HOUSTON TERMINALS SOUTHWARD. SHOULD GET A BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAIN SATURDAY EVENING WITH SHRA REDEVELOPING AFTER 06Z SUNDAY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 916 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015/ UPDATE... PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH CONTINUES TO PUSH MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS TONIGHT... WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A SECOND SURGE OF MOISTURE ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY NOW REACHING THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. HI-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN UPTICK IN STREAMER SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THIS SURGE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING AND CURRENT FORECAST HANDLES THIS PERIOD WELL. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE IS MUCH LOWER IN TERMS OF COVERAGE WHEN COMPARED TO OTHER HI-RES GUIDANCE FOR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING HOWEVER. GIVEN EXTREMELY MOIST ENVIRONMENT /THE 00Z LAKE CHARLES SOUNDING MEASURING A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.94 INCHES/ AND THE CONTINUED RETROGRADE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION... MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT POPS/WEATHER GRIDS BUT ADDED HEAVY RAIN MENTION ESSENTIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN ANGLETON TO CLEVELAND LINE. OTHERWISE... INCREASING CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND ELEVATED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW MORNINGS WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. FOR THE MARINE FORECAST... WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EARLY. BUOY 42019 /60 MILES SOUTH OF FREEPORT/ IS ALREADY REPORTING 8 FOOT SEAS. HUFFMAN PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015/ DISCUSSION... RADAR SHOWS SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SE TX WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER CYPRESS IN NW HARRIS CO. GOES SATELLITE DERIVED PRECIP WATER VALUES NOW UP TO AROUND 1.9 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH WILL LIMIT RAIN RATES TONIGHT GOING TOMORROW. OVERALL TRENDS IN SHORT RANGE FORECAST LOOK ON TRACK WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. GIVEN THE WEAKNESS IN UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING NOW BACK OVER MEXICO...THERE IS A GOOD CHANNEL FOR DEEP MOISTURE TO FLOW NORTH INTO TX AND THE PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS NOW WILL HELP KEEP RIDGING FROM BUILDING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. PRECIP WATER VALUES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 2-2.2 INCHES THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. THE 2.2 INCHES OF PRECIP WATER IS RIGHT AT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL OR 99TH PERCENTILE FOR JUNE BASED ON CRP/LCH SOUNDINGS. GIVEN THIS HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND THEN LIKELY SLOW MOVING STORMS...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE AREA MAINLY OVER E TX THIS WEEKEND. THIS MAY SHIFT TO ALONG THE COAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT WEST. GIVEN RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS THE LAST 10 DAYS OR SO...MOST AREAS CAN HANDLE A GOOD 5 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN SO NOT LOOKING AT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW. HOWEVER THESE KINDS OF RAIN AMOUNTS CAN BE REALIZED WITH THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS EXPECTED SO WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR SUN-TUE FOR POSSIBLE WATCH. OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK LIKE 2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG THE COAST WITH ISO 6 INCH AMOUNTS MAINLY FOR LIBERTY/CHAMBERS COUNTIES. SE HARRIS AND GALVESTON COULD BE RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF HIGHER RAINFALL FOR SUN/MON. THE OTHER CONCERN THAT THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF ARE NOW RESOLVING IS A POSSIBLE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE NW GULF TUE/WED. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM THAN THE ECMWF BUT BOTH MODELS HAVE A WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPING AND THEN MOVING TO THE LOWER TX COAST ON TUE. THIS REALLY OPEN UP VERY DEEP MOIST FLOW FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND INTO SE TX. ENHANCED MID LEVEL FLOW WILL ONLY INCREASE THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THAT TIME. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL STILL BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH FOR SOME WEAK SHEAR OVER ANY TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AS ANOTHER TROUGH DIPS INTO TX AND THIS TROUGH WILL HELP STEER THE DISTURBANCE INLAND ACROSS SE TX DURING THE WED TIME FRAME. SO FAR THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND IF A SYSTEM LIKE THIS DOES MATERIALIZE THEN FLASH FLOOD WATCHES WILL BE NEEDED. MAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THAT THE ECMWF STILL BUILDS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE N GULF AND INTO TX WED THROUGH NEXT FRI. GFS STILL HOLDS ONTO DEEP MOIST FLOW AND SOME RAIN CHANCES. OVERALL HOLD ONTO SOME RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK AS RIDGE MAY BE WEAKER THAN THE ECMWF SUGGESTS BUT COULD BE STRONGER THAN THE GFS THINKS. 39 MARINE... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO SHEAR OUT OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. AS IT DOES...THE SYSTEM/S MOISTURE AXIS WILL MOVE OVER THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS AND BAYS AND PROVIDE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS ARE ALSO INCREASING THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT AND THEN AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT. A COMBINATION OF SWELLS AND WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL LEAD TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CAUTION TO ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER AT LEAST THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. TIDE LEVELS WILL REACH TO ABOUT 0.5 TO 1.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AND MAY RISE TO BETWEEN 1 AND 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE BIGGEST FORESEEN IMPACT WILL BE DURING THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE ON SATURDAY ALONG THE GULF FACING BEACHES OF THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA - WAVE RUN-UP MAY COMBINE WITH THE ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDE TO GENERATE SOME MINOR FLOODING AT THAT TIME. SLIGHTLY BETTER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER THIS WILL BE PARTIALLY DEPENDENT UPON THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. 40 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 75 88 74 88 73 / 10 40 30 60 30 HOUSTON (IAH) 76 86 75 87 74 / 50 70 40 60 50 GALVESTON (GLS) 81 86 79 86 78 / 60 80 60 70 60 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM. && $$ DISCUSSION...14 AVIATION/MARINE...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PHOENIX AZ
409 AM MST SAT JUN 13 2015 .UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS... && .SYNOPSIS... WHILE A COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES MAY SPARK SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY WITH A WARMING TREND BEGINNING SUNDAY. MUCH STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST NEXT WEEK LEADING TO A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP WHERE MANY LOWER DESERTS LOCATIONS WILL FINALLY REACH THE 110 DEGREE THRESHOLD. && .DISCUSSION... LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT VORT MAX ALONG THE SOUTHERN CA COAST WITH DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDING ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT AND NORTHERN AZ. LATEST NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE DAY MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AZ AS THE VORT MAX DROPS INTO NORTHERN SONORA. VORTICITY AND JET-FORCED ASCENT WILL BE WEAK AND DISPLACED INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. LATEST CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN AN AREA STRETCHING FROM JTNP EASTWARD INTO EXTREME NORTHWESTERN MARICOPA COUNTY AND POPS HAVE BEEN BUMPED UPWARD TO AROUND 10 PERCENT IN THESE AREAS. THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY AS RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PROMOTES ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND INTO GILA COUNTY...THOUGH POPS AGAIN WILL REMAIN NO HIGHER THAN AROUND 10 PERCENT. BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE BUILDING HEAT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AROUND A RIDGE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. STEADY THICKNESS RISES WILL TRANSLATE INTO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...LIKELY REACHING THE 110 DEGREE MARK IN PHOENIX TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. ON AVERAGE...A 110 DEGREE HIGH IN PHOENIX IS REACHED JUNE 10TH. THICKNESSES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THOUGH THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST MOISTURE DRIFTING NORTHWARD OUT OF MEXICO WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES. BOUNDARY LAYER HEAT OFTEN TENDS TO LINGER LONGER THAN THE MODELS SUGGEST THIS TIME OF YEAR AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ABOVE THE BIAS-CORRECTED CONSENSUS BLEND AND TOWARDS THE UPPER TERCILE OF THE MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE. && .AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL... SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH... MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AND THIS SHOULD REMAIN THE CASE AT ALL SITES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING SOME DISTANT MOUNTAIN CU NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX AFTER 20Z BUT IMPACTS WILL BE NIL AT THE PHOENIX TERMINALS. COULD SEE SOME SHRA OR TSRA TO THE WEST OF BLH THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT SHOULD BE ISOLATED ENOUGH THAT IT ISN`T NECESSARY FOR THE TAFS. AS FOR WINDS...EXPECT LIGHT/DIURNALLY DRIVEN SPEEDS/DIRECTIONS AT ALL SITES. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS. && .FIRE WEATHER... MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... INCREASING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL JUNE PATTERN OF DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE AREA. SINGLE DIGIT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEK WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES IN MOST SPOTS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE ALTHOUGH SOME OCCASIONAL LATE AFTERNOON RIDGETOP BREEZINESS CAN BE EXPECTED /TYPICAL FOR MID JUNE/. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT ANY TIME THIS WEEK. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...NONE. CA...NONE. && $$ VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX DISCUSSION...HIRSCH AVIATION...LEINS FIRE WEATHER...LEINS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
328 AM MST SAT JUN 13 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WHILE A COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES MAY SPARK SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY WITH A WARMING TREND BEGINNING SUNDAY. MUCH STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST NEXT WEEK LEADING TO A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP WHERE MANY LOWER DESERTS LOCATIONS WILL FINALLY REACH THE 110 DEGREE THRESHOLD. && .DISCUSSION... LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT VORT MAX ALONG THE SOUTHERN CA COAST WITH DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDING ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT AND NORTHERN AZ. LATEST NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE DAY MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AZ AS THE VORT MAX DROPS INTO NORTHERN SONORA. VORTICITY AND JET-FORCED ASCENT WILL BE WEAK AND DISPLACED INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. LATEST CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN AN AREA STRETCHING FROM JTNP EASTWARD INTO EXTREME NORTHWESTERN MARICOPA COUNTY AND POPS HAVE BEEN BUMPED UPWARD TO AROUND 10 PERCENT IN THESE AREAS. THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY AS RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PROMOTES ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND INTO GILA COUNTY...THOUGH POPS AGAIN WILL REMAIN NO HIGHER THAN AROUND 10 PERCENT. BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE BUILDING HEAT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AROUND A RIDGE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. STEADY THICKNESS RISES WILL TRANSLATE INTO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...LIKELY REACHING THE 110 DEGREE MARK IN PHOENIX TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. ON AVERAGE...A 110 DEGREE HIGH IN PHOENIX IS REACHED JUNE 10TH. THICKNESSES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THOUGH THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST MOISTURE DRIFTING NORTHWARD OUT OF MEXICO WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES. BOUNDARY LAYER HEAT OFTEN TENDS TO LINGER LONGER THAN THE MODELS SUGGEST THIS TIME OF YEAR AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ABOVE THE BIAS-CORRECTED CONSENSUS BLEND AND TOWARDS THE UPPER TERCILE OF THE MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE. && .AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH... FOLLOWING SUNSET SKIES CUMULUS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX HAS DISSIPATED AND WE SHOULD SEE GENLY CLEAR SKIES AT ALL TAF SITES FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WITH VERY WEAK LOW/SURFACE GRADIENTS...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT DIURNAL ACROSS THE CENTRAL DESERTS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OUT WEST...FAVORING THE SOUTH AT KBLH WITH SPEEDS MOSTLY AOB 12KT. WINDS SHOULD FAVOR THE SOUTHEAST AT KIPL THROUGH SATURDAY AFTN...BUT MAY BRIEFLY SWING TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AFTER 04Z THIS EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT BY SUNRISE TOMORROW. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS. && .FIRE WEATHER...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES HEATING UP THROUGH THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 105-110 DEGREE RANGE STARTING MONDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT ALSO DURING THIS PERIOD WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES DROPPING TO NEAR 10 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS THE DESERTS. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS EACH DAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT ANY TIME DURING THE PERIOD. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...NONE. CA...NONE. && $$ VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX DISCUSSION...HIRSCH AVIATION...CB FIRE WEATHER...CDEWEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
953 AM MDT SAT JUN 13 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 953 AM MDT SAT JUN 13 2015 NO BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...EXCEPT TO TRIM BACK CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THE PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SLIGHTLY. A MUCH DRIER AND WARMER AIRMASS HAS MOVED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD DROP TO THE LOWER 40S DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES OUT. LOWER DEW POINTS WILL MEAN LESS AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS...DUE TO ADDITIONAL HEATING OF THE ELEVATED TERRAIN. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP HAVE BEEN BACKING UP THIS GENERAL IDEA. SKIES SHOULD RETURN TO A MOSTLY CLEAR STATE BY LATE THIS EVENING. THE MORNING RAOB AT KDEN INDICATED THAT THE AFTERNOON HIGH COULD BE IN THE LOWER 80S...SO NO CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WERE MADE. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT ) ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT SAT JUN 13 2015 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBSERVATION POINTS SHOWING SOME LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING MAINLY OVER LINCOLN COUNTY AND FURTHER NORTH ACROSS LOGAN...WELD AND MORGAN COUNTIES. WILL ADJUST CLOUD COVER AND EXPAND THE PATCHY FOG A BIT FURTHER WEST THROUGH MID MORNING HOURS WITH CLEAR SKIES ABOVE. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT OVER WYOMING AND NORTHERN COLORADO SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTH WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AND WARMER AIRMASS. HOWEVER LINGERING LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO...WEAK ASCENT ALONG WITH HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS WILL STILL ABLE TO DRIFT BACK INTO CENTRAL COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL DRIFT OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS WITH MAINLY BRIEF RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE SHOWERS. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT SAT JUN 13 2015 FOR SUNDAY UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CONUS WITH A WEAK TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER COLORADO THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THERE IS DECENT MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE REGION THAT WILL AID IN BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NE COLORADO. UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS FOR SUNDAY SHOW RELATIVELY HIGH PW VALUES WITH LIGHT FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS AND DECENT CAPE FOR INCREASED WIND GUSTS. STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING THAT COULD BRING A FLOODING CONCERN TO ALREADY FLOODED AREAS. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEING A BACKDOOR FRONT INTO EASTERN COLORADO THAT WILL CARRY CONVECTION INTO MONDAY. RESURGENCE OF MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH MODERATE BKN SHEAR MAGNITUDES AND CAPE VALUES ALONG THE FOOTHILLS ESPECIALLY COULD BRING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW RETURNS AS THE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH AND EAST OVER TX. STRONGER WESTERLIES WILL DOMINATE THE SWITCH MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL HELP TO BRING IN DRIER AIR AND DECREASE MOISTURE BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. STORMS WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED AND TERRAIN DRIVEN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH MID TO UPPER 80S EXPECTED BY MID WEEK AND POSSIBLE LOW 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 953 AM MDT SAT JUN 13 2015 THERE MAY BE A FEW HOURS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE DENVER METRO AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT NO OTHER AVIATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS AND A LITTLE BIT OF RAIN...BUT NOT MUCH ELSE. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT SAT JUN 13 2015 THE SOUTH PLATTE AT HENDERSON IS ALMOST OUT OF ACTION STAGE AS IT CONTINUES TO FALL AND WILL CANCEL THE FLOOD WARNING THERE. THE CACHE LA POUDRE THROUGH WELD COUNTY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO RISE SLIGHTLY BUT REMAIN IN THE MINOR FLOOD CATEGORY. SOME OTHER STREAMS ALSO RUNNING HIGH INCLUDE THE COLORADO RIVER NEAR GRANBY AND NORTH FORK OF THE BIG THOMPSON DUE TO SNOWMELT AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL RUNOFF...ADVISORIES FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND WITH PREVIOUS RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALTHOUGH DECREASED IN COVERAGE AND RAINFALL AMOUNT POTENTIAL...COULD STILL CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHER FLOWS. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DANKERS SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN LONG TERM...BOWEN AVIATION...DANKERS HYDROLOGY...ENTREKIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1003 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND THEN NEW JERSEY TODAY PUSHING JUST SOUTH OF THE DELMARVA BY SUNDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS TO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY WITH THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH RETURNING NORTHEASTWARD AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SLIDE TO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES LATE THIS COMING WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... NOT MANY ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO THE FCST AT THIS TIME, BUT WE DID USE THE LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE TO MAKE SOME TWEAKS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK FOR TODAY AFTER A CHECK OF THIS MORNINGS REGIONAL SOUNDINGS AND WITH THE INCOMING DRIER AIR BEHIND THE SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT EDGING SOUTH THROUGH NORTH/CENTRAL NJ AND EAST-CENTRAL PA AT MID/LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE, THE TIMING OF SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE DELMARVA WITH SOME CHANCE POPS WAS MAINTAINED BASED ON SUPPORT FROM HRRR AND RAP GUIDANCE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE SHORTWAVE THAT PRODUCED THE STRONGER STORMS FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST WITH WEAK RIDGING BEGINNING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. WE ARE EXPECTING A MOSTLY DRY TODAY, OUTSIDE OF THE DELMARVA, WITH DRIER AIR PUSHING IN ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE BEHIND A WEAKENING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS MORNING. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTINESS JUST BEHIND THE FRONT BUT AS THE RIDGING MOVES IN LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WE LOSE THE DEEPER MIXING AND THE GUSTS SHUT OFF. SOME OF THE HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVING DOWN THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE HEADING OFFSHORE OVER THE DELMARVA THIS EVENING. THIS IS WHERE WE CONFINE OUR CHANCE POPS TODAY...MOSTLY THE DELMARVA REGION AS BETTER MOISTURE POOLING IS EXPECTED WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LIMPING COLD FRONT. AS FOR HIGHS TODAY, WE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEAK OUT A 90F IN AND AROUND THE METRO AREA AND POINTS SOUTH. THE WARMEST LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES GET SHUNTED OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING LEAVING US WITH 14-16C AT 850MB THIS AFTERNOON. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, WE LOSE THE DEEPER MIXING TODAY SO WE ARE NOT EXPECTING TO WARM TO THAT LEVEL. OUR DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE A LOT MORE COMFORTABLE THAN DAYS PAST, EXCEPT FOR THE MOISTURE POOLING IN THE DELMARVA. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL ACTUALLY FEEL SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE AMBIENT AIR TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON...UPPER-80S...LOW-90S IN THE DELMARVA. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/... ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY DROPS OFF WITH RIDGING CRESTING OVERHEAD. THE WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST FOR A TIME BEFORE GOING LIGHT VARIABLE/CALM IN A LOT OF PLACES. OVERNIGHT LOW IN THE MID TO UPPER-60S WILL BRING A REFRESHING FEEL THAN IN DAYS PAST. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 500MB: A STAUNCH AND NEARLY STATIONARY RIDGE OF RATHER WARM HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR SOUTH CAROLINA THIS WEEK WITH A VIGOROUS BAND OF WESTERLIES ALONG THE CANADIAN - UNITED STATES BORDER. A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE DEPARTING TEXAS DURING MID WEEK MAY BRIEFLY FLATTEN THE RIDGE AS IT ATTEMPTS TO MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES LATE THIS WEEK. THIS WARMER THAN NORMAL PATTERN FOR MID JUNE OVER OUR AREA (1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS -SD) WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE REGION. TEMPERATURES: 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD (AT LEAST 1 SD) WITH 1000MB TEMPS GENERALLY 2 SD ABOVE NORMAL. CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES WILL BE AT LEAST 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH POSSIBLE 10 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL DEPARTURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. EVEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OF THIS COMING WEEK COULD AVERAGE NEAR 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THOUGH PSN OF THE QSTRY FRONT WILL BE A LARGE FACTOR. FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, A 50 50 BLEND 00Z/13 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE SUNDAY - MONDAY, 00Z/13 MEX MOS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, THEN THE 0521Z/13 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT-SKY-WIND FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. THE DAILIES BELOW... SUNDAY...SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID WITH THE NORTHEAST FLANK OF ANY CONVECTION CONCENTRATED NEAR CHESAPEAKE BAY AND POSSIBLY UP TO KRDG. LIGHT SOUTH WIND MAY GUST 15 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERSPREAD THE AREA. SREF PWAT UP TO 2 INCHES BY MONDAY MORNING. COULD BE ISSUING HAZARD PRODUCTS, INCLUDING FLOOD ADVISORIES AND SPS`S BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. MONDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS AND TSTMS...ESPECIALLY E PA AND NJ. SEVERE POTENTIAL IN WAA. ML CAPE 1400J! THATS MORE ML CAPE THAN WHAT WAS AVBL FOR THE BERKS COUNTY LEHIGH VALLEY NOTABLE MICROBURSTS FROM LATE FRIDAY JUNE 12. SOUTHWEST WIND POSSIBLY GUSTY TO 25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. PWAT NEAR 2.1 INCHES. THIS SHOULD BE QUITE AN ACTIVE DAY. TUESDAY...MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON-EVENING COLD FRONTAL TSTMS AND MAINLY SOUTH PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HOT AND HUMID. 0-6KM PLENTY OF 35KT SHEAR BUT THE QUESTION...HOW MUCH CONVECTION? STILL 1200+J ML CAPE. WEST WIND GUST 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON THEN SHIFT NORTHWEST AT OR BY NIGHT. PWAT STILL NEAR 1.9 INCHES. A POTENT DAY WITH STILL POTENTIAL FOR SVR STORMS THOUGH THAT MAY BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE CFP. WEDNESDAY...DRY AND NICER...A BIT LESS HUMID AND FEW DEGREES COOLER. LIGHT WIND WITH COOLING COASTAL SEABREEZES. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS RETURN IN WAA. THURSDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION EPISODE OF HEAVY CONVECTION WITH THE WARM FRONT THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE NEXT FRIDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES ON PSN OF THE QSTRY FRONT BUT THIS COULD BE A POTENT WEATHER DAY IN OUR AREA IF THE QSTRY FRONT BISECTS OUR AREA OR IS JUST NORTH. IF THE COOLER ECMWF IS CORRECT THEN THE SVR RISK IS DEPRESSED. STILL ROOM FOR MODEL CHANGES. MLCAPE NEAR 1000 J DELMARVA AND PLENTY OF SHEAR... 50 KT AT 500MB! FRIDAY...CONSIDERABLE MODEL UNCERTAINTY SO NOT SURE IF THE GFS CFP AND DRY IS CORRECT OR CONVECTION REMAINS AS PER THE ECMWF? && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. REST OF THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA AND THE WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY FOR A FEW HOURS. WE SHOULD LOSE THE GUSTS BY LATE MORNING TO MIDDAY. THIS AFTERNOON...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10-12 KNOTS VEERING MORE TOWARDS THE NORTH BY THE EVENING HOURS. POSSIBLE SHOWERS SOUTH AND WEST OF PHL/ILG. POSSIBLE SEABREEZE AT ACY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH IT MAY STAY JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINAL. TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TOWARDS THE EAST-SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER A SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR. LIGHT SOUTH WIND MAY GUST 15 KT MID-LATE AFTN. SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS/POSSIBLE TSTMS. IFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE? MONDAY...OCNL MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN SHOWERS/TSTMS. SW WIND MAY GUST 20-25 KT. TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR BUT LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS. WESTERLY WINDS MAY GUST 20 KT TUESDAY SHIFTING NORTHWEST IN THE EVENING. WEDNESDAY...VFR DURING THE DAY MAY DETERIORATE AT NIGHT. LIGHT WIND WITH AFTERNOON COASTAL SEA BREEZES. && .MARINE... TODAY - TONIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW NORTHWESTERLY GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDING. COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIMP THROUGH THIS MORNING AND THE WINDS WILL VEER TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BY THIS EVENING. POSSIBLE SEABREEZE CIRCULATION NEARSHORE AND IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY BY LATER THIS EVENING. EXPECTING A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TO COMMENCE LATE TONIGHT. SEAS REMAIN AROUND 3 FEET. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NO OBVIOUS MARINE ADVISORY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THRU THE PERIOD. SCT TSTMS WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS MON THRU TUE. && .RIP CURRENTS... THE RIP CURRENT RISK FOR TODAY APPEARS TO BE LOW. HOWEVER, WITH AN UNDERLYING 12 SEC SWELL, WILL HAVE TO CHECK WITH OBSERVERS THIS MORNING, AS THEIR INFORMATION COULD LEAD US TO RAISE THE RIP CURRENT RISK CATEGORY. FOR ULTIMATE SAFETY...ALL SWIMMERS SHOULD SWIM THE PRESENCE OF LIFEGUARDS. SWIMMING AFTER HOURS OR NEAR JETTIES/GROINS IS UNSAFE, ESPECIALLY FOR THE INEXPERIENCED WEAKER SWIMMERS. IF RIP CURRENT TROUBLE DEVELOPS...STAYING CALM AND FLOATING IT OUT IS THE BEST YOU CAN DO AND THEN RETURN TO SHORE ONCE THE SEAWARD DRIFT HAS STOPPED. && .CLIMATE... FOUR RECORD EQUALING HIGH TEMPS YESTERDAY JUNE 12. KPHL, KABE, KRDG AND KGED. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DRAG NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/KLINE SHORT TERM...HEAVENER LONG TERM...DRAG AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER/KLINE MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER RIP CURRENTS... CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1040 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 .UPDATE... RIDGING STILL LOOKING TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON TO MAINLY ONLY THE FAR SW OR WEST THIS AFTERNOON. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO SKY COVER TRENDS AND REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... BAKER && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 724 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015/ .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... /ISSUED 250 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015/ SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS MORNING AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUN RISE. HRRR SEEMED TO HAVE A BEST HANDLE ON THE RAIN OVERNIGHT AND IS SHOWING VERY LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE...DRIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH SUNRISE /EVEN WITH MAIN AREA OF RAIN DIMINISHING/. IF THIS OCCURS THOUGH...WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND ISOLATED THROUGH THE MORNING. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA AND THUS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE SHORT TERM HAVE LIMITED POPS TO ABOUT 20 PERCENT. THERE ARE ONCE AGAIN DISCREPANCIES IN THE HI-RES MODELS FOR THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH...SOME HINT AT SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SW PART OF THE CWA AND THUS WENT SLIGHTLY HIGH ON POPS IN THAT AREA. WITH UPPER RIDGE...WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH 90S ACROSS THE CWA /EXCEPT FOR THE MOUNTAINS/ TODAY AND TOMORROW. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE A FEW DEGREES FOR SUNDAY COMPARED TO SATURDAY WITH VALUES REACHING THE UPPER 90S ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THAT AREA WILL SEE SOME HEAT INDEX VALUES TOPPING 100 SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO STILL BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA /HEAT INDEX VALUE OF 105 OR GREATER/. REGARDLESS THOUGH...ITS STILL GOING TO BE HOT OUT AND WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OF THE YEAR SO FAR...FOLKS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA SHOULD FOLLOW HEAT SAFETY PRECAUTIONS AND LIMIT TIME OUTDOORS. 11 && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... /ISSUED 250 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015/ LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH BUILDING HIGH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WITH GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS. ECMWF IS PERHAPS A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE 500 MB HIGH BUT DIFFERENCES ARE NEGLIGIBLE AND SHOULD NOT AFFECT SENSIBLE WEATHER. DESPITE THE OVERALL SUBSIDENCE PROVIDED BY THE STACKED HIGH...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL WITH PWATS OVER 1.75 INCHES AND CLOSE TO 2 INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS. WAS WAITING A FEW RUNS TO SEE IF THIS PERSISTED AND IT HAS INDEED IN THE MODELS SO WILL NEED TO INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY IN LATEST GRID SET. THIS TREND CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY WITH UPPER HIGH GETTING A LITTLE STRONGER AND BUILDING WESTWARD WHILE MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH WITH ONLY MARGINALLY LOWER VALUES THAN MONDAY. OVERALL LIFT IN THE AFTERNOON LOOKS LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN MONDAY AND ALTHOUGH WILL MAINTAIN POPS FOR ALL AREAS...CANNOT SEE GOING HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE AT THIS POINT. MAIN WX SYSTEMS REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE AREA FOR WED ALTHOUGH HIGH DOES SHOW SOME SIGNS OF WEAKENING. MAY SEE SOME ENHANCED LATE EVENING ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FAR NW AS A RESULT BUT OVERALL POPS WILL REMAIN LIMITED IN THE LOW END CHANCE RANGE. RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN TIER. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WELL WITH PWATS OVER 2 INCHES NORTH OF A ROME TO CLEVELAND LINE REQUIRING AT LEAST HIGH END CHANCE POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. OVERALL NUMBERS AND THINKING ON BUILDING HEAT HAS NOT CHANGES WITH MONDAY AND TUESDAY TEMPERATURES NEAR 100 FOR FAR SE SECTIONS AND HEAT INDICES AROUND 105. DEESE && .AVIATION... 12Z UPDATE... HI CLOUDS THIS MORNING BUT EXPECT FEW-SCT CU FIELD TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT ISOLATED TSRA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF AT THE MOMENT BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH CLOSELY. //ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE... HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS. 11 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 93 71 96 72 / 10 10 20 10 ATLANTA 90 73 92 74 / 20 20 20 10 BLAIRSVILLE 84 65 88 66 / 20 20 20 10 CARTERSVILLE 91 69 92 70 / 20 20 20 10 COLUMBUS 92 72 94 73 / 20 20 20 20 GAINESVILLE 89 71 91 72 / 20 20 20 10 MACON 94 71 96 72 / 20 20 20 20 ROME 91 69 93 70 / 20 20 20 10 PEACHTREE CITY 91 70 92 71 / 20 20 20 10 VIDALIA 95 74 95 74 / 20 10 20 20 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...11/BAKER LONG TERM....DEESE AVIATION...11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
724 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 .PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... /ISSUED 250 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015/ SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS MORNING AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUN RISE. HRRR SEEMED TO HAVE A BEST HANDLE ON THE RAIN OVERNIGHT AND IS SHOWING VERY LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE...DRIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH SUNRISE /EVEN WITH MAIN AREA OF RAIN DIMINISHING/. IF THIS OCCURS THOUGH...WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND ISOLATED THROUGH THE MORNING. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA AND THUS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE SHORT TERM HAVE LIMITED POPS TO ABOUT 20 PERCENT. THERE ARE ONCE AGAIN DISCREPANCIES IN THE HI-RES MODELS FOR THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH...SOME HINT AT SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SW PART OF THE CWA AND THUS WENT SLIGHTLY HIGH ON POPS IN THAT AREA. WITH UPPER RIDGE...WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH 90S ACROSS THE CWA /EXCEPT FOR THE MOUNTAINS/ TODAY AND TOMORROW. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE A FEW DEGREES FOR SUNDAY COMPARED TO SATURDAY WITH VALUES REACHING THE UPPER 90S ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THAT AREA WILL SEE SOME HEAT INDEX VALUES TOPPING 100 SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO STILL BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA /HEAT INDEX VALUE OF 105 OR GREATER/. REGARDLESS THOUGH...ITS STILL GOING TO BE HOT OUT AND WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OF THE YEAR SO FAR...FOLKS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA SHOULD FOLLOW HEAT SAFETY PRECAUTIONS AND LIMIT TIME OUTDOORS. 11 LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... /ISSUED 250 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015/ LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH BUILDING HIGH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WITH GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS. ECMWF IS PERHAPS A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE 500 MB HIGH BUT DIFFERENCES ARE NEGLIGIBLE AND SHOULD NOT AFFECT SENSIBLE WEATHER. DESPITE THE OVERALL SUBSIDENCE PROVIDED BY THE STACKED HIGH...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL WITH PWATS OVER 1.75 INCHES AND CLOSE TO 2 INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS. WAS WAITING A FEW RUNS TO SEE IF THIS PERSISTED AND IT HAS INDEED IN THE MODELS SO WILL NEED TO INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY IN LATEST GRID SET. THIS TREND CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY WITH UPPER HIGH GETTING A LITTLE STRONGER AND BUILDING WESTWARD WHILE MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH WITH ONLY MARGINALLY LOWER VALUES THAN MONDAY. OVERALL LIFT IN THE AFTERNOON LOOKS LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN MONDAY AND ALTHOUGH WILL MAINTAIN POPS FOR ALL AREAS...CANNOT SEE GOING HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE AT THIS POINT. MAIN WX SYSTEMS REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE AREA FOR WED ALTHOUGH HIGH DOES SHOW SOME SIGNS OF WEAKENING. MAY SEE SOME ENHANCED LATE EVENING ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FAR NW AS A RESULT BUT OVERALL POPS WILL REMAIN LIMITED IN THE LOW END CHANCE RANGE. RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN TIER. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WELL WITH PWATS OVER 2 INCHES NORTH OF A ROME TO CLEVELAND LINE REQUIRING AT LEAST HIGH END CHANCE POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. OVERALL NUMBERS AND THINKING ON BUILDING HEAT HAS NOT CHANGES WITH MONDAY AND TUESDAY TEMPERATURES NEAR 100 FOR FAR SE SECTIONS AND HEAT INDICES AROUND 105. DEESE && .AVIATION... 12Z UPDATE... HI CLOUDS THIS MORNING BUT EXPECT FEW-SCT CU FIELD TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT ISOLATED TSRA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF AT THE MOMENT BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH CLOSELY. //ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE... HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS. 11 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 93 71 96 72 / 20 10 20 10 ATLANTA 90 73 92 74 / 20 20 20 10 BLAIRSVILLE 84 65 88 66 / 20 20 20 10 CARTERSVILLE 91 69 92 70 / 20 20 20 10 COLUMBUS 92 72 94 73 / 20 20 20 20 GAINESVILLE 89 71 91 72 / 20 20 20 10 MACON 94 71 96 72 / 10 20 20 20 ROME 91 69 93 70 / 20 20 20 10 PEACHTREE CITY 91 70 92 71 / 20 20 20 10 VIDALIA 95 74 95 74 / 10 10 20 20 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....DEESE AVIATION...11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1130 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1125 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS AS WELL AS SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA. THE REGION REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR TO THE SOUTH OF A FRONTAL ZONE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WEST INTO THE MIDWEST AND PLAINS STATES. A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY...BUT THE NEAR TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUCH AS RECENT HRRR RUNS AND THE 14Z RAP KEEP THE FAR SOUTHWEST DRIER TODAY AND FOCUSES ACTIVITY FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA. RATHER MEAGER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD AGAIN LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING TODAY AND OVERALL COVERAGE. UPDATE ISSUED AT 706 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 FORECAST STILL LOOKING GOOD SO FAR THIS MORNING. HOURLY TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ARE PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK WITH FORECAST VALUES. THE LATEST OBS DATA WAS INGESTED INTO THE HOURLY GRIDS TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS AS WELL. ASIDE FROM THE THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO FURTHER CHANGES NEEDED. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION ONSET TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND THE OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS WEEKEND WILL BE DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING AND A STEADY FEED OF MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE BEST TIME FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS DURING PEAK HEATING. BASED ON THE NAM12 MODEL...AN IMPULSE OF ENERGY WILL MIGRATE AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SOUTHEASTERN CONUS RIDGE TODAY...BRINGING SOME WEAK LIFT AND GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. ONCE THIS BIT OF ENERGY MIGRATES NORTH OF THE AREA...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY DROP OFF IN COVERAGE RATHER QUICKLY. THE ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FROM ROUGHLY 8Z ONWARD FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SUNDAY STAY GENERALLY NORTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL LIKELY BE DUE TO A SLIGHTLY WEAKER CAPPING INVERSION AND THE FACT THAT A SLUGGISH FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY SITUATED WELL NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...AS THE ENTIRE REGION REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A MID LATITUDE CYCLONE. TODAYS HIGHS SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA. CONDITIONS COULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER ON SUNDAY...AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE A BIT...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT AROUND 90. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE BULK OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL SUPPORT THE IDEA OF A MODERATELY STRONG SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE SETTING UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE NATION THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK. BY TUESDAY...THOUGH...THIS RIDGE WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTH BY A FLOW OF ENERGY WAVES OVER ITS NORTHERN FRINGE AND RUNNING NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. IN ADDITION...THE GEM AND GFS SHOW A TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER THE EASTERN SOUTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS FLATTER IN THIS AREA. EITHER WAY...A SHALLOW TROUGH LOOKS TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY WITH ITS TRAIN OF MID LEVEL ENERGY PASSING THROUGH KENTUCKY AS THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE WILL BE MOMENTARILY PRESSED FURTHER SOUTH. SOME REBOUNDING IS SHOWN WITH THIS RIDGE FOR FRIDAY BUT THE PARADE OF ENERGY PACKETS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE BLUEGRASS STATE EVEN AS IT RESTRENGTHENS...MAKING MCS AND HEAVY RAIN ACTIVITY A CONCERN FOR OUR AREA DURING THE MID AND LATTER PARTS OF THE FORECAST. GIVEN THE GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED A SOLUTION FOR THE EXTENDED THAT IS A BLEND OF THE MODELS... THOUGH ONE WHERE THE DIURNAL CYCLE DOMINATES. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A NEARBY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO START NEXT WEEK IN WHICH THE BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS FRONT SETTLES FURTHER SOUTH FOR MIDWEEK AND WILL PLACE KENTUCKY IN THE SIGHTS OF MORE ORGANIZED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...FUELED BY AMPLE MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND WARMTH BUILT BENEATH THE SOUTHERN RIDGE. THE...STILL MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...CONVECTION WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE MORE TO THE NORTH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ANYTIME GIVEN THE PATTERN...THOUGH THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS WILL BE CLEARLY FAVORED. WARM...HUMID...AND STORMY WILL BE THE CATCH PHRASE THAT BEST DESCRIBES THE WX FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THE CR GRID BLEND CAME IN DECENT WITH THE BULK OF ANY ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR A DIURNAL CYCLE DOMINATED PATTERN OF CONVECTION THROUGHOUT. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DID TWEAK THE LOWS A SMIDGEN TO REPRESENT ONLY MINOR TERRAIN EFFECTS EACH NIGHT GIVEN THE UPCOMING HIGH MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 706 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 17Z TODAY. THE TAF SITES COULD EXPERIENCE A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM...BUT WITH ONLY LIMITED COVERAGE EXPECTED...VCTS WAS USED IN EACH TAF TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE COMING TO AND END AT JKL...SYM...AND SJS BY 3 OR 4Z TONIGHT...AND AT 5 OR 6Z AT LOZ AND SME. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...EXPCEPT WHEN A SHOWER OR STORM DIRECTLY AFFECTS ONE OF THE TAF SITES...AT WHICH TIME MVFR OR MAYBE EVEN IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR. AN NO AMD SKD TAF FOR SME HAS BEEN ISSUED AGAIN DUE TO THE LACK OF OBS COMING IN FROM THE SME ASOS SINCE 2255Z YESTERDAY. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...GREIF AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NWS JACKSON MS
1040 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015 .UPDATE... POPS WERE UPPED 5 TO 15 PERCENTAGE POINTS IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AFTER HAVING A LOOK AT MORNING OBSERVATIONS/MODELS AND TRENDS. 12Z RAOBS SHOW LOTS OF FLOW AND INLAND GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON THE BACKS OF SSE LOW LEVEL WIND VECTORS ALTHOUGH THERE ARE POCKETS OF RELATIVE DRYNESS ALOFT WHICH MAY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AT TIMES AND IN SPOTS. THE BRUNT OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE IS CURRENTLY FOCUSED AT A LINE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STORMS ADVANCING SLOWLY NNE FROM CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL LA TOWARD SE AR AND NE LA. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW THIS ACTIVITY WILL EVOLVE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE HRRR IS HESITANT TO KEEP IT AS A PERSISTENT FEATURE. HOWEVER...THIS BAND WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS IT COULD PRESENT HEAVY RAIN ISSUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE DELTA IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER AND STALLS. AT THIS POINT THIS LATTER RISK IS RATHER CONDITIONAL SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE HWO CLEAR. OTHERWISE...MAIN REASONING FOR POP RAISING TODAY WAS BECAUSE BANDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD EXHIBIT LOTS OF SOUTH TO NORTH MOVEMENT AND WILL WET A LOT OF GROUND. IT MUST ALSO BE UNDERSTOOD THAT SOME LOCATIONS COULD GET SEVERAL SHOWERS BUT RELATIVELY LIMITED RAINFALL OWING TO THIS SAME ASPECT. BUT THOSE LOCATIONS THAT DO GET SOLID STORMS WILL ALSO GET AT LEAST BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS DUE PURELY TO MOMENTUM TRANSFER. CONSIDERING TAME LAPSE RATES ALOFT THESE CONVECTIVE GUSTS SHOULD ONLY BE A CONSIDERABLE WORRY IF SURFACE INSTABILITY BUILDS MORE THAN IS ANTICIPATED. /BB/ && .AVIATION...AFTER STARTING OFF THE MORNING WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO STRATUS...START OF DAYTIME MIXING HAS ALLOWED CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR OR VFR MOST LOCATIONS. MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY TSRA WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE DUE TO VERY HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS. HRRR RUNS IMPLY FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AS MODERATELY STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW ALLOWS STORMS TO PROPAGATE AND HAVE FAIRLY HIGH COVERAGE. HENCE HAVE AT LEAST TEMPO TSRA MOST SITES AND WILL AMD AS NEEDED TO SHOW CATEGORICAL IMPACTS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. EXPECT REPEAT OF WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT DUE TO STRATUS WITH FAIRLY SIMILAR SETUP TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED THIS MORNING. /AEG/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 540 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015/ UPDATE... HAVE UPDATED MORNING FORECAST TO INCLUDE FOG OVER SOUTH/EAST CENTRAL MS BASED ON RECENT OBS TRENDS. FOG SHOULD NOT PERSIST FOR LONG AFTER SUNRISE GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW/MIXING EXPECTED. /EC/ PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015/ DISCUSSION... TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT... DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH ATLANTIC STATES CONTINUES TO FORCE A VERY MOIST AIRMASS (PRECIPITABLE WATER ~ 1.8 TO 2.2 INCHES) NORTHWARD INTO THE ARKLAMISS REGION. WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SUBSTANTIAL LOW/MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO ORGANIZE SHOWERS/TSTMS ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLE AGAIN TODAY...BUT THERE MAY BE A WESTWARD SHIFT TO THE ACTIVITY TODAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO EXPAND WESTWARD AND EXERT MORE INFLUENCE INTO EASTERN MS. TODAY`S FORECAST POPS REFLECT THIS THINKING AND FOLLOW THE MULTITUDE OF NEAR TERM GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE SPC SSEO AND OTHER HIGH-RES WRF GUIDANCE. POPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE UPDATED AND INCREASED IN SOME AREAS DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS LATER THIS MORNING. LAPSE RATES WILL BE A HAIR STEEPER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...BUT STILL EXPECT VERTICAL TOTALS TO BE LESS THAN 26 FOR MOST PART WITH 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES NOT MUCH GREATER THAN 7.5 TO 8 DEG C/KM. A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF SEVERE WIND REPORTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WHERE CONVECTION IS MORE DELAYED ALLOWING FOR GREATER DESTABILIZATION...WHICH COULD END UP BEING IN NORTHERN/ EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA GIVEN THAT INITIAL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE ALONG/SOUTH OF THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL BUT...IN SIMILAR FASHION TO YESTERDAY...STORM MOTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY SWIFT AND UNSUPPORTIVE OF HEAVY RAINFALL DURATIONS THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL. STORMS THAT ORIENT ALONG WEST TO EAST BOUNDARIES WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS. WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER THE AREA...THERE SHOULD BE A GREATER DIURNAL PATTERN TO THE CONVECTION WITH SHOWERS/STORMS DIMINISHING QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING FOLLOWED BY MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...EXPECT GREATER INSTABILITY/MOISTURE TO BECOME MORE FOCUSED OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS AS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE INTENSIFIES AND EXPANDS WESTWARD. THIS WILL MEAN DECREASING POPS FOR EASTERN MS - BUT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINING NEAR TWO INCHES ALONG/W OF THE MS RIVER...HAVE KEPT HIGHER POPS GOING THERE IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AFTN. A SIMILAR THERMODYNAMIC SET-UP SHOULD YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY AND CUT LOWS A BIT BASED ON RECENT TRENDS. /EC/ MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...OF INTEREST IS THE DISORGANIZED TROPICAL WAVE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA PUSHING TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS HAS THIS WEAK WAVE PUSHING INLAND OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST THEN PUSH IT NORTH INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION DURING THE WORKWEEK. MOREOVER...THE CANADIAN MODEL HAS THIS WAVE COMBINING WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE FOR A LITTLE BETTER AMPLIFICATION AND INCREASED LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW (~25-40 KNOTS) HELPING TO BRING SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL GENERALLY WEST OF THE MS RIVER. THE ECMWF MODEL HAS A WEAKER SHEAR AXIS LOCATED FARTHER WEST THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS. A PLUME OF MOISTURE WITH PWATS AROUND 2.3 INCHES WILL SURGE ACROSS THE WEST PORTION OF THE REGION...WHICH WILL PUSH THE DRIER AIR EAST OF THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL OF EFFICIENT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE WEST. THE GFS LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR EAST WITH THE HIGHER PWATS. MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING THE BEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS DOWN AROUND THE COASTAL AREAS. THIS IS THE FIRST MODEL RUN SHOWING THIS WAVE SO WELL IN THE LOW TO MIDLEVELS AS FAR AS JET ENERGY IS CONCERNED. EXPECT MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION FOR THE PERIOD. SO WITH THIS IN MIND WILL KEEP THE HWO CLEAR FOR NOW SINCE THE ECMWF WAS FARTHER WEST WITH THE BETTER JET DYNAMICS. WILL WATCH FOR FUTURE MODEL RUNS WITH THIS FEATURE./17/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... JACKSON 89 72 89 71 / 70 25 41 13 MERIDIAN 90 69 90 69 / 57 21 28 8 VICKSBURG 90 72 89 73 / 70 29 59 18 HATTIESBURG 89 72 90 72 / 70 31 45 11 NATCHEZ 88 73 88 72 / 68 31 60 19 GREENVILLE 91 73 90 72 / 69 33 54 24 GREENWOOD 91 72 90 72 / 59 30 36 15 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...NONE. LA...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ BB/AEG/EC/17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
540 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015 .UPDATE... HAVE UPDATED MORNING FORECAST TO INCLUDE FOG OVER SOUTH/EAST CENTRAL MS BASED ON RECENT OBS TRENDS. FOG SHOULD NOT PERSIST FOR LONG AFTER SUNRISE GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW/MIXING EXPECTED. /EC/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015/ DISCUSSION... TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT... DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH ATLANTIC STATES CONTINUES TO FORCE A VERY MOIST AIRMASS (PRECIPITABLE WATER ~ 1.8 TO 2.2 INCHES) NORTHWARD INTO THE ARKLAMISS REGION. WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SUBSTANTIAL LOW/MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO ORGANIZE SHOWERS/TSTMS ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLE AGAIN TODAY...BUT THERE MAY BE A WESTWARD SHIFT TO THE ACTIVITY TODAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO EXPAND WESTWARD AND EXERT MORE INFLUENCE INTO EASTERN MS. TODAY`S FORECAST POPS REFLECT THIS THINKING AND FOLLOW THE MULTITUDE OF NEAR TERM GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE SPC SSEO AND OTHER HIGH-RES WRF GUIDANCE. POPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE UPDATED AND INCREASED IN SOME AREAS DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS LATER THIS MORNING. LAPSE RATES WILL BE A HAIR STEEPER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...BUT STILL EXPECT VERTICAL TOTALS TO BE LESS THAN 26 FOR MOST PART WITH 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES NOT MUCH GREATER THAN 7.5 TO 8 DEG C/KM. A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF SEVERE WIND REPORTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WHERE CONVECTION IS MORE DELAYED ALLOWING FOR GREATER DESTABILIZATION...WHICH COULD END UP BEING IN NORTHERN/ EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA GIVEN THAT INITIAL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE ALONG/SOUTH OF THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL BUT...IN SIMILAR FASHION TO YESTERDAY...STORM MOTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY SWIFT AND UNSUPPORTIVE OF HEAVY RAINFALL DURATIONS THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL. STORMS THAT ORIENT ALONG WEST TO EAST BOUNDARIES WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS. WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER THE AREA...THERE SHOULD BE A GREATER DIURNAL PATTERN TO THE CONVECTION WITH SHOWERS/STORMS DIMINISHING QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING FOLLOWED BY MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...EXPECT GREATER INSTABILITY/MOISTURE TO BECOME MORE FOCUSED OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS AS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE INTENSIFIES AND EXPANDS WESTWARD. THIS WILL MEAN DECREASING POPS FOR EASTERN MS - BUT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINING NEAR TWO INCHES ALONG/W OF THE MS RIVER...HAVE KEPT HIGHER POPS GOING THERE IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AFTN. A SIMILAR THERMODYNAMIC SET-UP SHOULD YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY AND CUT LOWS A BIT BASED ON RECENT TRENDS. /EC/ MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...OF INTEREST IS THE DISORGANIZED TROPICAL WAVE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA PUSHING TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS HAS THIS WEAK WAVE PUSHING INLAND OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST THEN PUSH IT NORTH INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION DURING THE WORKWEEK. MOREOVER...THE CANADIAN MODEL HAS THIS WAVE COMBINING WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE FOR A LITTLE BETTER AMPLIFICATION AND INCREASED LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW (~25-40 KNOTS) HELPING TO BRING SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL GENERALLY WEST OF THE MS RIVER. THE ECMWF MODEL HAS A WEAKER SHEAR AXIS LOCATED FARTHER WEST THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS. A PLUME OF MOISTURE WITH PWATS AROUND 2.3 INCHES WILL SURGE ACROSS THE WEST PORTION OF THE REGION...WHICH WILL PUSH THE DRIER AIR EAST OF THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL OF EFFICIENT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE WEST. THE GFS LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR EAST WITH THE HIGHER PWATS. MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING THE BEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS DOWN AROUND THE COASTAL AREAS. THIS IS THE FIRST MODEL RUN SHOWING THIS WAVE SO WELL IN THE LOW TO MIDLEVELS AS FAR AS JET ENERGY IS CONCERNED. EXPECT MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION FOR THE PERIOD. SO WITH THIS IN MIND WILL KEEP THE HWO CLEAR FOR NOW SINCE THE ECMWF WAS FARTHER WEST WITH THE BETTER JET DYNAMICS. WILL WATCH FOR FUTURE MODEL RUNS WITH THIS FEATURE./17/ AVIATION...VERY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A RATHER PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEKEND WITH LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING IFR/MVFR STRATUS AND MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED. LOCALIZED AREAS OF LIFR CATEGORY STRATUS SHOULD OCCUR...PARTICULARLY IN THE PINE BELT REGION WHERE THE HRRR HINTS AT SOME FOG POTENTIAL AS WELL. IT APPEARS THAT FLOW WILL BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP STRATUS OFF THE GROUND...BUT VERY LOW CIGS WILL STILL BE A CONCERN. /EC/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... JACKSON 89 72 89 71 / 52 25 41 13 MERIDIAN 90 69 90 69 / 43 21 28 8 VICKSBURG 90 72 89 73 / 52 29 59 18 HATTIESBURG 89 72 90 72 / 52 31 45 11 NATCHEZ 88 73 88 72 / 61 31 60 19 GREENVILLE 91 73 90 72 / 48 33 54 24 GREENWOOD 91 72 90 72 / 44 30 36 15 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...NONE. LA...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ JAN/JAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
843 AM MDT SAT JUN 13 2015 .UPDATE... NO UPDATE NEEDED TO FORECAST THIS MORNING. COLD FRONT WAS OVER THE SE CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA PER SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND PRESSURE RISES. THE PRESSURE RISES WERE CREATING GUSTY WINDS OVER SE MT WHICH WERE HANDLED WELL IN THE FORECAST. PRECIPITATION HAD EXITED THE EASTERN ZONES PER BOWMAN RADAR. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH TERRAIN AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES UPSLOPE FROM THE E AND SURFACE CAPES APPROACH 500 J/KG PER THE SREF...MAINLY AFTER 00Z. RAP SOUNDINGS SHOWED ONLY A LITTLE CAPE OVER KSHR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SHEAR IS FORECAST OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AS WELL. LOW- LEVELS WILL BE DRY AND WILL EXHIBIT INVERTED-V PROFILES AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT A LINGERING THUNDERSTORM OVER THE FAR SE NEAR THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. IT WILL BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS. THE DRY AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT SUNNY SKIES IN MOST AREAS...ONCE THE CLOUDS ON SATELLITE OVER SE MT EXIT THE AREA. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM ID TONIGHT AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ALONG THE FRONT BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE ENTIRE AREA. FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE. ARTHUR && .SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN... AS EXPECTED...SOME CONVECTION FIRED OFF MAINLY EAST OF BILLINGS LAST EVENING. THE BIGGEST IMPACT OF SAID STORMS WAS SHORT BURSTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. ONE REPORT CAME IN WITH NEARLY AN INCH OF RAIN IN LESS THAN A HALF HOUR IN EASTERN ROSEBUD COUNTY. HOWEVER...A FEW REPORTS OF GUSTY WINDS SOME SMALL HAIL WERE SENT INTO THE OFFICE. AREA STREAMS AND CREEKS HAVE SHOWN A LITTLE UPTICK IN RESPONSE DUE TO THE RAINFALL...BUT NOTHING IMPACTFUL AT THE MOMENT. COLD FRONT WORKED ITS WAY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS A RESULT DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL DAYS. ON THE LARGER SCALE...CIRCULATION AROUND A MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SASKATCHEWAN WILL BRING SOME ENERGY ACROSS THE TREASURE STATE BY SATURDAY EVENING. THIS COUPLED WITH EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND SOME UNSTABLE AIR COULD PROVIDE A BOOST TO POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE DEPICTING CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER SOUTHERN MONTANA BEFORE MIDNIGHT SUNDAY MORNING. SPC SSEO MODEL AGREEMENT IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING STORMS OVER OVER THE FOUR EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA AT THAT TIME. THE SHEAR VALUES DON/T APPEAR TO BE THAT FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE CONVECTION...BUT AN ISOLATED STORM WITH LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED AT A NOCTURNAL TYPE EVENT...WITH STORMS PERSISTING WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ZONAL FLOW TAKES OVER ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED AS WELL. SINGER .LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI... EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK UNSETTLED WITH AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM FUNNELING PACIFIC SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. KEPT SCATTERED POPS IN FOR MOST PERIODS DURING THE EXTENDED WITH THE WEAKEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY WHEN BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING PUSHES THROUGH. STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CHANCES LOOK A BIT BETTER ON MONDAY THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST AS LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN SOUTHEAST ADVECTING IN 1 INCH PLUS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. WHILE NO WELL DEFINED SEVERE THREAT EXISTS BASED ON THE CURRENT PATTERN...COULD SEE A FEW SEVERE STORMS SCATTERED ABOUT EACH DAY FROM MONDAY THROUGH THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS PROVIDE GOOD SHEAR AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PERSIST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MONDAY...RISING TO AROUND 80 DEGREES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE DROPPING BACK INTO THE 70S WITH COLD FRONT FRIDAY. CHAMBERS && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...SPREADING EASTWARD TONIGHT. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. CHAMBERS && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... TDY SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 076 052/069 049/072 053/074 054/083 058/078 055/074 0/U 32/T 12/T 34/T 32/T 22/T 33/T LVM 076 045/068 044/068 049/076 050/081 050/077 048/072 0/U 22/T 13/T 44/T 32/T 23/T 33/T HDN 078 052/072 048/075 055/076 054/084 058/079 055/075 0/U 33/T 13/T 44/T 32/T 22/T 33/T MLS 076 053/072 049/074 056/072 053/080 058/078 055/074 0/U 43/T 12/T 45/T 32/T 23/T 44/T 4BQ 077 052/070 049/072 055/073 052/080 056/079 055/074 1/B 53/T 13/T 55/T 32/T 23/T 44/T BHK 076 050/071 045/072 053/068 050/076 054/075 052/071 1/B 43/T 12/T 46/T 32/T 23/T 44/T SHR 074 049/067 046/071 051/073 050/080 053/078 052/074 0/B 33/T 14/T 54/T 32/T 23/T 34/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
657 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 .SYNOPSIS... CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO SUNSHINE LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE WAFFLING ITS WAY BACK INTO OUR VICINITY SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. DURING THAT TIME PERIOD...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH A MOIST AIR MASS...WILL CAUSE PERIODIC SHOWERS AND CHANCES OF THUNDER. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 655 AM UPDATE... MADE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH ADVECTED IN SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN EXPECTED ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NY. ALSO...USING 925MB RH FIELD OF RUC MODEL AS A PROXY FOR THE POST- FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS...I HELD IN CLOUDS /AND EVEN SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE INITIALLY/ A BIT LONGER THIS MORNING BEFORE SUNSHINE OVERSPREADS THE AREA LATER TODAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... PRIOR BAND OF SHWRS ALG SWD MOVG COLD FRNT HAS ALL BUT DSIPTD EARLY THIS MRNG. THIS SHOULD LEAVE US WITH RAIN- FREE WX TDY...AS THE PREV MENTIONED FRNTL ZN SETTLES DOWN INTO SRN OH/PA...AND A SFC RIDGE EXPANDS SWD OUT OF ONT/QUE. SAT/SFC OBS SHOW PLENTY OF POST-FRNTL LOW CLDS OVER THE RGN ATTM. WE EXPECT THESE CLDS TO THIN OUT RATHER QUICKLY BY MID-MRNG (BETWEEN 7 AND 10 AM)...AS THE SHALLOW MOIST LYR MIXES OUT/GETS SQUASHED BY LARGE-SCALE SINKING MOTION. THUS...EARLY CLDS SHOULD GIVE TO WAY TO PTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. AS SOMEWHAT COOLER DRIER AIR BUILDS DOWN FROM THE N TDY...CONDS WILL BE MUCH LESS MUGGY...WITH AFTN HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CNY...TO THE LOW-MID 80S ACRS NE PA. TNT...THE SAME FRNTL BNDRY WILL BEGIN TO CREEP BACK NWD/NEWD AS A WARM FRNT LATE (AFTER MIDNIGHT). THUS...CLR TO PTLY CLDY SKIES EARLY IN THE EVE...WILL GIVE WAY TO THICKENING CLDS THEREAFTER FROM SW TO NE. WE ALSO CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SCHC OF SHWRS RETURNING TO OUR FAR WRN ZNS (FINGER LAKES/CNTRL SRN TIER AREAS)...SPCLY FROM LATE EVE ONWARD. LOWS OVERNIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S-LWR 60S. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... 4 AM UPDATE... THOUGH SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EXTENDED IN FROM QUEBEC INITIALLY SUNDAY MORNING...MOST MODELS NOW HAVE LATCHED ONTO THE TREND OF BRINGING WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDER BACK INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY WESTERN TO CENTRAL ZONES. AS WEST-TO-EAST INSTABILITY AND TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SETS UP WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME SHEAR ALONG THE LIFTING WARM FRONT ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY. SPC DAY 2 AND DAY 3 OUTLOOKS ACTUALLY INCLUDE OUR AREA IN MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH FOCUS TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST. WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AGAIN TO AROUND 2 INCHES...WE ARE ALSO CONCERNED FOR POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUS LOCALIZED FLOODING WHERE TRAINING OCCURS. WILL BE INCLUDING THESE ISSUES IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. COMPLICATING FACTOR THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH BE THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WHICH MAY PUT A LIMIT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SOUNDINGS ALSO TAKE ON A MOIST ADIABATIC LOOK AT TIMES...WHICH WOULD NOT PROMOTE EVAPORATIONAL COOLING OF DOWNDRAFTS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIPRES BLDS IN TUE BRINGING CLRG SKIES HOLDING INTO WED. HWVR...IT/S A BIT OF A DIRTY FLAT RDG AND ISLTD CONV CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...ESP OVER THE PA ZONES. SLY FLOW AND MOISTURE RETURNS IN EARNEST LATE WED INTO THU AS A WV AND SFC LOW APRCHS FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING AN INCRSD CHANCE OF SHWRS AND TRWS INTO THU AND BEYOND. HPC GUID WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OTR MODEL GUID AND WAS GRNLY FLWD. MINOR TWEAKS TO DATA FOR BETTER COLLABORATION AND TO BRING BETTER CONSISTENCY. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 12Z SAT UPDATE... LOW CLDS WILL HANG ON FOR A WHILE THROUGH MID- LATE MRNG (14-16Z)...WITH CIG BASES GENERALLY LIFTING FROM IFR/LWR END MVFR TO HIGHER END MVFR/VFR. THESE LWR CLDS SHOULD SCTR OUT BY MIDDAY. FROM THIS AFTN THROUGH TNT...VFR IS EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGN OVERNIGHT...THEY SHOULD GENERALLY BE OF THE MID AND HIGH-LVL VARIETY. N TO NW SFC WINDS 5-10 KT TDY...WILL BECOME LGT AND VRBL TNT (AOB 5 KT). .OUTLOOK... SUN...MOSTLY VFR...BUT SOME RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL DURG THE AFTN...AS SCTD SHWRS/TSTMS RE-DVLP. SUN NGT-TUE...POSSIBLE SHRA-TSRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. WED...VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MDP NEAR TERM...MLJ/MDP SHORT TERM...MDP LONG TERM...DGM AVIATION...MLJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
731 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015 .SYNOPSIS... CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO SUNSHINE TODAY. HOWEVER...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE WAFFLING ITS WAY BACK INTO OUR VICINITY SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. DURING THAT TIME PERIOD...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH A MOIST AIR MASS...WILL CAUSE PERIODIC SHOWERS AND CHANCES OF THUNDER. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 10 AM UPDATE... MINOR CHANGES. CLOUDS ERODING FROM THE NE BUT STILL CLOUDY FROM STEUBEN TO PIKE. DRY DAY WITH NO POPS UNTIL LATE IN THE FAR WEST. HIGH TEMPS LOOK GOOD AND ON TRACK. 655 AM UPDATE... MADE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH ADVECTED IN SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN EXPECTED ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NY. ALSO...USING 925MB RH FIELD OF RUC MODEL AS A PROXY FOR THE POST- FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS...I HELD IN CLOUDS /AND EVEN SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE INITIALLY/ A BIT LONGER THIS MORNING BEFORE SUNSHINE OVERSPREADS THE AREA LATER TODAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... PRIOR BAND OF SHWRS ALG SWD MOVG COLD FRNT HAS ALL BUT DSIPTD EARLY THIS MRNG. THIS SHOULD LEAVE US WITH RAIN- FREE WX TDY...AS THE PREV MENTIONED FRNTL ZN SETTLES DOWN INTO SRN OH/PA...AND A SFC RIDGE EXPANDS SWD OUT OF ONT/QUE. SAT/SFC OBS SHOW PLENTY OF POST-FRNTL LOW CLDS OVER THE RGN ATTM. WE EXPECT THESE CLDS TO THIN OUT RATHER QUICKLY BY MID-MRNG (BETWEEN 7 AND 10 AM)...AS THE SHALLOW MOIST LYR MIXES OUT/GETS SQUASHED BY LARGE-SCALE SINKING MOTION. THUS...EARLY CLDS SHOULD GIVE TO WAY TO PTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. AS SOMEWHAT COOLER DRIER AIR BUILDS DOWN FROM THE N TDY...CONDS WILL BE MUCH LESS MUGGY...WITH AFTN HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CNY...TO THE LOW-MID 80S ACRS NE PA. TNT...THE SAME FRNTL BNDRY WILL BEGIN TO CREEP BACK NWD/NEWD AS A WARM FRNT LATE (AFTER MIDNIGHT). THUS...CLR TO PTLY CLDY SKIES EARLY IN THE EVE...WILL GIVE WAY TO THICKENING CLDS THEREAFTER FROM SW TO NE. WE ALSO CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SCHC OF SHWRS RETURNING TO OUR FAR WRN ZNS (FINGER LAKES/CNTRL SRN TIER AREAS)...SPCLY FROM LATE EVE ONWARD. LOWS OVERNIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S-LWR 60S. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... 4 AM UPDATE... THOUGH SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EXTENDED IN FROM QUEBEC INITIALLY SUNDAY MORNING...MOST MODELS NOW HAVE LATCHED ONTO THE TREND OF BRINGING WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDER BACK INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY WESTERN TO CENTRAL ZONES. AS WEST-TO-EAST INSTABILITY AND TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SETS UP WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME SHEAR ALONG THE LIFTING WARM FRONT ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY. SPC DAY 2 AND DAY 3 OUTLOOKS ACTUALLY INCLUDE OUR AREA IN MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH FOCUS TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST. WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AGAIN TO AROUND 2 INCHES...WE ARE ALSO CONCERNED FOR POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUS LOCALIZED FLOODING WHERE TRAINING OCCURS. WILL BE INCLUDING THESE ISSUES IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. COMPLICATING FACTOR THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH BE THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WHICH MAY PUT A LIMIT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SOUNDINGS ALSO TAKE ON A MOIST ADIABATIC LOOK AT TIMES...WHICH WOULD NOT PROMOTE EVAPORATIONAL COOLING OF DOWNDRAFTS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIPRES BLDS IN TUE BRINGING CLRG SKIES HOLDING INTO WED. HWVR...IT/S A BIT OF A DIRTY FLAT RDG AND ISLTD CONV CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...ESP OVER THE PA ZONES. SLY FLOW AND MOISTURE RETURNS IN EARNEST LATE WED INTO THU AS A WV AND SFC LOW APRCHS FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING AN INCRSD CHANCE OF SHWRS AND TRWS INTO THU AND BEYOND. HPC GUID WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OTR MODEL GUID AND WAS GRNLY FLWD. MINOR TWEAKS TO DATA FOR BETTER COLLABORATION AND TO BRING BETTER CONSISTENCY. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 10 AM UPDATE... IFR IS GONE BUT MVFR MAY LINGER AN HOUR LONGER THAN FORECAST. ADJUSTED TAFS TO REMOVE IFR AND LINGER MVFR CIGS. 12Z SAT UPDATE... LOW CLDS WILL HANG ON FOR A WHILE THROUGH MID- LATE MRNG (14-16Z)...WITH CIG BASES GENERALLY LIFTING FROM IFR/LWR END MVFR TO HIGHER END MVFR/VFR. THESE LWR CLDS SHOULD SCTR OUT BY MIDDAY. FROM THIS AFTN THROUGH TNT...VFR IS EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGN OVERNIGHT...THEY SHOULD GENERALLY BE OF THE MID AND HIGH-LVL VARIETY. N TO NW SFC WINDS 5-10 KT TDY...WILL BECOME LGT AND VRBL TNT (AOB 5 KT). .OUTLOOK... SUN...MOSTLY VFR...BUT SOME RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL DURG THE AFTN...AS SCTD SHWRS/TSTMS RE-DVLP. SUN NGT-TUE...POSSIBLE SHRA-TSRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. WED...VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MDP NEAR TERM...MLJ/MDP/TAC SHORT TERM...MDP LONG TERM...DGM AVIATION...MLJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1022 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD WILL CREATE HOT TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL EXCEED 100 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND...POTENTIALLY REACHING 105 DEGREES FOR SEVERAL DAYS NEXT WEEK. SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 10 AM SATURDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND/STRENGTHEN TODAY WHILE AT THE SURFACE ELONGATED HIGH SITS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. DEEP WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE SEA BREEZE PINNED VERY NEAR TO THE COAST TODAY...QUITE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AT BAY BUT STILL EXPECT A FEW ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING...AIDED BY WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE TOPSIDE OF THE RIDGE. HIGH RES SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS CONVECTION BREAKING OUT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG THE PINNED SEA BREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY STORMS WILL BE SHORT LIVED BUT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 2 INCHES AND WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTH ON THE ORDER OF 10K FT HEAVY RAIN COULD BE AN ISSUE WHERE STORMS DO DEVELOP. ANOTHER CONSEQUENCE OF THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE THE HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH HEAT INDICES WILL NOT REACH ADVISORY THRESHOLDS VALUES WILL STILL BE IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S EVEN VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...MID-SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE SHORT TERM AS BERMUDA HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE COMBINE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WEAKNESS WHICH HAS BEEN PROGGED OVER THE NE PERIPHERY OF THE GROWING RIDGE THIS PERIOD HAS WEAKENED IN GUIDANCE...AND THUS EVEN LESS CHANCE FOR ANY COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA. STILL EXPECT A WIND SHIFT AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE AREA...BUT ANY ACTUAL TEMP ADVECTION WILL REMAIN DISPLACED WELL NE OF THE AREA. SO...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY TURN TO THE NW SUNDAY AND MONDAY...IT WILL DO NOTHING TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM SOARING TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS. HIGHS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL RISE INTO THE MID AND UPR 90S...EVEN AROUND 90 AT THE BEACH...WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID 70S...AROUND 80 AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH NEAR 70 DEWPOINTS WILL DRIVE HEAT INDEX VALUES TO 100-105 DEGREES...AND IT IS POSSIBLE SOME AREAS MAY NEED A HEAT ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME THAT IS NOT BEING FORECAST. THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO FORCING FOR CONVECTION...AND A MID-LEVEL CAP WILL BE PRESENT THANKS TO THE SUBSIDENT RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE SEA BREEZE COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO DRIVE PARCELS THROUGH THE CAP...AND SREF PROBS SHOW A GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FOR THIS REASON WILL MAINTAIN THE INHERITED SCHC POP EACH AFTN...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT STORY OF THE EXTENDED. LARGE 500MB RIDGE WILL REMAIN DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THROUGH THE WEEK...WHILE BERMUDA HIGH SPINS OFFSHORE. THESE TWO FACTORS WILL MAINTAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DANGEROUS HEAT AT LEAST THROUGH MID-WEEK...AND HEAT ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE MON/TUE/WED FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES. LATE WEEK MAY BRING SUBTLE CHANGE AS A MID- LEVEL LOW...POSSIBLY OF TROPICAL ORIGIN...ROTATES AROUND THE RIDGE AND WILL TRY TO BREAK IT DOWN ON ITS NORTHERN PERIPHERY. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF IMPACTS FROM THIS MOISTURE WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA...SOME SUBTLE HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE PERIOD SO WILL SHOW SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS THU/FRI BUT REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-JUNE. POP WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT MAY INCREASE LATE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOWERED THICKNESSES ALLOWING FOR BETTER CONVECTIVE CHANCES. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 12Z...A HOT A STICKY DAY TODAY. WEST WINDS WILL GET A BIT GUSTY IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS SCATTERED CONVECTION POPPING UP AROUND 17Z...BUT NOT TOO HEAVY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL HELP TO KICK THINGS OFF...HOWEVER MOISTURE IS A BIT LIMITED. ADIABATIC WARMING WILL HELP TO GET TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 90S...EVEN FOR THE COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL BE PINNED. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LITTLE OR NO FOG EXPECTED. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH MAINLY VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 10 AM SATURDAY...CONDITIONS HAVE FALLEN BELOW SCEC THRESHOLDS SO THE HEADLINE HAS BEEN ENDED A BIT EARLY. THE STRONG NOCTURNAL JETTING THAT WARRANTED HEADLINES OVERNIGHT ENDED HOURS AGO AND SPEEDS ARE CURRENTLY 10 TO 15 KT ACROSS NEARSHORE WATERS. DIRECTION IS CURRENTLY WEST-SOUTHWEST BUT NEARSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME ONSHORE AS THE PINNED SEA BREEZE STARTS TO DEVELOP. FARTHER OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST AS PIEDMONT TROUGH DEVELOPS AND MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST. GRADIENT OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN STATIC WITH SPEEDS STAYING IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. SEAS WILL RUN 3 TO 4 FT TODAY AND 2 TO 3 FT OVERNIGHT. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL PERSIST AS THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AND ALTHOUGH SUBTLE VARIATIONS IN WIND ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO WEAK TROUGHS EACH DAY...SW WILL BE THE PRIMARY WIND DIRECTION. SUNDAY...THESE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...AROUND 10 KT...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT AND LOCAL BACKING DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...BECOMING AROUND 15 KT ALL WATERS. SEAS WILL FEATURE A VARIETY OF WAVE GROUPS...BUT WILL REMAIN OF RATHER LOW AMPLITUDE. EXPECT PRIMARILY 2 FT SEASON SUNDAY...BUILDING TO 3 FT MONDAY THANKS TO THE STRONGER WIND-WAVE CONTRIBUTION. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH SW WINDS AROUND THIS FEATURE CONTINUING OVER THE WATERS. THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...SO WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 10-15 KT TUESDAY...INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KT OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON WEDNESDAY. THE WAVE SPECTRUM WILL HAVE A VARIETY OF LOW- AMPLITUDE WAVE GROUPS EACH DAY...BUT THE SW WIND- WAVE WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY...DRIVING SEAS FROM 2-3 FT TUESDAY TO 3-4 FT ON WEDNESDAY. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDW NEAR TERM...III SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
649 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD WILL CREATE HOT TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL EXCEED 100 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND...POTENTIALLY REACHING 105 DEGREES FOR SEVERAL DAYS NEXT WEEK. SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 600 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALOFT WILL BRING HIGH HEAT TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TODAY. ALTHOUGH NO RECORD HIGHS ARE EXPECTED...LOWER TO MID 90S SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD. EVEN THE BEACHES SHOULD REACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED 90 DEGREES TODAY. COUPLE THIS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S AND IT WILL FEEL AS IF IT IS AROUND 100 DEGREES...UP TO 102. THIS WILL NOT QUITE MEET HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT WILL HEIGHTEN AWARENESS BY REISSUING AN SPS. MUGGY TONIGHT AS WELL...WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S. A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL MAKE A PUSH ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. AT THE SAME TIME THE SEABREEZE WILL SHARPEN...BUT AS IT ATTEMPTS TO PUSH INLAND...IT SHOULD ENCOUNTER RESISTANCE GIVEN THE W AND NW FLOW IN THE LOWEST 5 KFT. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE BOUNDARY WILL BE PINNED AT THE COAST. ENHANCED CONVERGENCE/LIFT ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES COUPLED WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT IN THE COLUMN...NEAR TWO INCHES...AND MIXED CAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG...SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SET OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS. THE WARMER AIR ALOFT...AROUND 15000 FT...DEVELOPS A CAPPING INVERSION LATE AFTERNOON AND EVE AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO SQUASH CONVECTION AND WOULD NOT EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER PAST THE EARLY EVE. LIFT REMAINS RATHER SHALLOW PER TIME HEIGHT ANALYSIS AND THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SUBSIDENCE ABOVE 8-10 KFT. HOWEVER...THERE IS ALSO A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW THAT MOVES BY JUST TO OUR N. THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE WILL SKIRT OUR MORE NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING. THE HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR IS SHOWING CONSIDERABLE AFTERNOON CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE AND WILL MAINTAIN SMALL POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...FAVORING THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY AND MORE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...MID-SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE SHORT TERM AS BERMUDA HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE COMBINE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WEAKNESS WHICH HAS BEEN PROGGED OVER THE NE PERIPHERY OF THE GROWING RIDGE THIS PERIOD HAS WEAKENED IN GUIDANCE...AND THUS EVEN LESS CHANCE FOR ANY COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA. STILL EXPECT A WIND SHIFT AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE AREA...BUT ANY ACTUAL TEMP ADVECTION WILL REMAIN DISPLACED WELL NE OF THE AREA. SO...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY TURN TO THE NW SUNDAY AND MONDAY...IT WILL DO NOTHING TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM SOARING TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS. HIGHS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL RISE INTO THE MID AND UPR 90S...EVEN AROUND 90 AT THE BEACH...WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID 70S...AROUND 80 AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH NEAR 70 DEWPOINTS WILL DRIVE HEAT INDEX VALUES TO 100-105 DEGREES...AND IT IS POSSIBLE SOME AREAS MAY NEED A HEAT ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME THAT IS NOT BEING FORECAST. THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO FORCING FOR CONVECTION...AND A MID-LEVEL CAP WILL BE PRESENT THANKS TO THE SUBSIDENT RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE SEA BREEZE COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO DRIVE PARCELS THROUGH THE CAP...AND SREF PROBS SHOW A GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FOR THIS REASON WILL MAINTAIN THE INHERITED SCHC POP EACH AFTN...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT STORY OF THE EXTENDED. LARGE 500MB RIDGE WILL REMAIN DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THROUGH THE WEEK...WHILE BERMUDA HIGH SPINS OFFSHORE. THESE TWO FACTORS WILL MAINTAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DANGEROUS HEAT AT LEAST THROUGH MID-WEEK...AND HEAT ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE MON/TUE/WED FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES. LATE WEEK MAY BRING SUBTLE CHANGE AS A MID- LEVEL LOW...POSSIBLY OF TROPICAL ORIGIN...ROTATES AROUND THE RIDGE AND WILL TRY TO BREAK IT DOWN ON ITS NORTHERN PERIPHERY. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF IMPACTS FROM THIS MOISTURE WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA...SOME SUBTLE HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE PERIOD SO WILL SHOW SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS THU/FRI BUT REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-JUNE. POP WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT MAY INCREASE LATE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOWERED THICKNESSES ALLOWING FOR BETTER CONVECTIVE CHANCES. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 12Z...A HOT A STICKY DAY TODAY. WEST WINDS WILL GET A BIT GUSTY IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS SCATTERED CONVECTION POPPING UP AROUND 17Z...BUT NOT TOO HEAVY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL HELP TO KICK THINGS OFF...HOWEVER MOISTURE IS A BIT LIMITED. ADIABATIC WARMING WILL HELP TO GET TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 90S...EVEN FOR THE COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL BE PINNED. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LITTLE OR NO FOG EXPECTED. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH MAINLY VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 600 AM SATURDAY...NOCTURNAL JETTING WILL WANE THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS AND EVENTUALLY SEAS TO SUBSIDE. WILL INITIALIZE WITH A SCEC FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS FOR SEAS UP TO 5 FT AND SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 20 KT. A SEABREEZE BOUNDARY WILL BE PINNED AT THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE NW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. SW WINDS WILL VEER TO MORE WESTERLY TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE. THE STRONGEST WINDS THIS MORNING...UP TO 20 KT WILL DECREASE TO 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE AND 10 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT. SEAS UP TO 4 TO 5 FT THIS MORNING WILL SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 4 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND TO 2 TO 3 FT TONIGHT. A WEAK 10 TO 12 SECOND SWELL WILL REMAIN. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL PERSIST AS THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AND ALTHOUGH SUBTLE VARIATIONS IN WIND ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO WEAK TROUGHS EACH DAY...SW WILL BE THE PRIMARY WIND DIRECTION. SUNDAY...THESE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...AROUND 10 KT...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT AND LOCAL BACKING DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...BECOMING AROUND 15 KT ALL WATERS. SEAS WILL FEATURE A VARIETY OF WAVE GROUPS...BUT WILL REMAIN OF RATHER LOW AMPLITUDE. EXPECT PRIMARILY 2 FT SEASON SUNDAY...BUILDING TO 3 FT MONDAY THANKS TO THE STRONGER WIND-WAVE CONTRIBUTION. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH SW WINDS AROUND THIS FEATURE CONTINUING OVER THE WATERS. THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...SO WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 10-15 KT TUESDAY...INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KT OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON WEDNESDAY. THE WAVE SPECTRUM WILL HAVE A VARIETY OF LOW- AMPLITUDE WAVE GROUPS EACH DAY...BUT THE SW WIND- WAVE WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY...DRIVING SEAS FROM 2-3 FT TUESDAY TO 3-4 FT ON WEDNESDAY. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
635 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD WILL CREATE HOT TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL EXCEED 100 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND...POTENTIALLY REACHING 105 DEGREES FOR SEVERAL DAYS NEXT WEEK. SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALOFT WILL BRING HIGH HEAT TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TODAY. ALTHOUGH NO RECORD HIGHS ARE EXPECTED...LOWER TO MID 90S SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD. EVEN THE BEACHES SHOULD REACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED 90 DEGREES TODAY. COUPLE THIS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S AND IT WILL FEEL AS IF IT IS AROUND 100 DEGREES...UP TO 102. THIS WILL NOT QUITE MEET HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT WILL HEIGHTEN AWARENESS BY REISSUING AN SPS. MUGGY TONIGHT AS WELL...WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S. A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL MAKE A PUSH ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. AT THE SAME TIME THE SEABREEZE WILL SHARPEN...BUT AS IT ATTEMPTS TO PUSH INLAND...IT SHOULD ENCOUNTER RESISTANCE GIVEN THE W AND NW FLOW IN THE LOWEST 5 KFT. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE BOUNDARY WILL BE PINNED VERY NEAR THE COAST. ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES COUPLED WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT IN THE COLUMN...NEAR TWO INCHES...AND MIXED CAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG...SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SET OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS. THE WARMER AIR ALOFT...AROUND 15000 FT...DEVELOPS A CAPPING INVERSION LATE AFTERNOON AND EVE AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO SQUASH CONVECTION AND WOULD NOT EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER PAST THE EARLY EVE. LIFT REMAINS RATHER SHALLOW PER TIME HEIGHT ANALYSIS AND THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SUBSIDENCE ABOVE 8-10 KFT. HOWEVER...THERE IS ALSO A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW THAT MOVES BY JUST TO OUR N. THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE WILL SKIRT OUR MORE NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING. THE HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR IS SHOWING CONSIDERABLE AFTERNOON CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE AND WILL MAINTAIN SMALL POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...FAVORING THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...MID-SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE SHORT TERM AS BERMUDA HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE COMBINE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WEAKNESS WHICH HAS BEEN PROGGED OVER THE NE PERIPHERY OF THE GROWING RIDGE THIS PERIOD HAS WEAKENED IN GUIDANCE...AND THUS EVEN LESS CHANCE FOR ANY COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA. STILL EXPECT A WIND SHIFT AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE AREA...BUT ANY ACTUAL TEMP ADVECTION WILL REMAIN DISPLACED WELL NE OF THE AREA. SO...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY TURN TO THE NW SUNDAY AND MONDAY...IT WILL DO NOTHING TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM SOARING TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS. HIGHS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL RISE INTO THE MID AND UPR 90S...EVEN AROUND 90 AT THE BEACH...WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID 70S...AROUND 80 AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH NEAR 70 DEWPOINTS WILL DRIVE HEAT INDEX VALUES TO 100-105 DEGREES...AND IT IS POSSIBLE SOME AREAS MAY NEED A HEAT ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME THAT IS NOT BEING FORECAST. THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO FORCING FOR CONVECTION...AND A MID-LEVEL CAP WILL BE PRESENT THANKS TO THE SUBSIDENT RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE SEA BREEZE COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO DRIVE PARCELS THROUGH THE CAP...AND SREF PROBS SHOW A GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FOR THIS REASON WILL MAINTAIN THE INHERITED SCHC POP EACH AFTN...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT STORY OF THE EXTENDED. LARGE 500MB RIDGE WILL REMAIN DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THROUGH THE WEEK...WHILE BERMUDA HIGH SPINS OFFSHORE. THESE TWO FACTORS WILL MAINTAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DANGEROUS HEAT AT LEAST THROUGH MID-WEEK...AND HEAT ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE MON/TUE/WED FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES. LATE WEEK MAY BRING SUBTLE CHANGE AS A MID- LEVEL LOW...POSSIBLY OF TROPICAL ORIGIN...ROTATES AROUND THE RIDGE AND WILL TRY TO BREAK IT DOWN ON ITS NORTHERN PERIPHERY. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF IMPACTS FROM THIS MOISTURE WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA...SOME SUBTLE HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE PERIOD SO WILL SHOW SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS THU/FRI BUT REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-JUNE. POP WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT MAY INCREASE LATE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOWERED THICKNESSES ALLOWING FOR BETTER CONVECTIVE CHANCES. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 12Z...A HOT A STICKY DAY TODAY. WEST WINDS WILL GET A BIT GUSTY IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS SCATTERED CONVECTION POPPING UP AROUND 17Z...BUT NOT TOO HEAVY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL HELP TO KICK THINGS OFF...HOWEVER MOISTURE IS A BIT LIMITED. ADIABATIC WARMING WILL HELP TO GET TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 90S...EVEN FOR THE COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL BE PINNED. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LITTLE OR NO FOG EXPECTED. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH MAINLY VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...NOCTURNAL JETTING WILL WANE THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS AND EVENTUALLY SEAS TO SUBSIDE. WILL INITIALIZE WITH A SCEC FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS FOR SEAS UP TO 5 FT AND SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 20 KT. A SEABREEZE BOUNDARY WILL BE PINNED RATHER CLOSE TO THE COAST LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE NW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. SW WINDS WILL VEER TO MORE WESTERLY TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE. THE STRONGEST WINDS THIS MORNING...UP TO 20 KT WILL DECREASE TO 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE AND 10 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT. SEAS UP TO 4 TO 5 FT THIS MORNING WILL SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 4 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND TO 2 TO 3 FT TONIGHT. A WEAK 10 TO 12 SECOND SWELL WILL REMAIN. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL PERSIST AS THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AND ALTHOUGH SUBTLE VARIATIONS IN WIND ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO WEAK TROUGHS EACH DAY...SW WILL BE THE PRIMARY WIND DIRECTION. SUNDAY...THESE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...AROUND 10 KTS...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT AND LOCAL BACKING DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...BECOMING AROUND 15 KTS ALL WATERS. SEAS WILL FEATURE A VARIETY OF WAVE GROUPS...BUT WILL REMAIN OF RATHER LOW AMPLITUDE. EXPECT PRIMARILY 2 FT SEASON SUNDAY...BUILDING TO 3 FT MONDAY THANKS TO THE STRONGER WIND-WAVE CONTRIBUTION. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH SW WINDS AROUND THIS FEATURE CONTINUING OVER THE WATERS. THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...SO WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 10-15 KTS TUESDAY...INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KTS OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON WEDNESDAY. THE WAVE SPECTRUM WILL HAVE A VARIETY OF LOW- AMPLITUDE WAVE GROUPS EACH DAY...BUT THE SW WIND-WAVE WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY...DRIVING SEAS FROM 2-3 FT TUESDAY TO 3-4 FT ON WEDNESDAY. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDW NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...43 MARINE...RJD/JDW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
759 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN PARKED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. PENNSYLVANIA WILL REMAIN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER RIDGE WITH A SURFACE FRONT OSCILLATING OVER THE STATE. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING WITH IT A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST DAYS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 09Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES DYING COLD FRONT ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR. PARENT SHORTWAVE HAS ALREADY PASSED NORTH OF THE STATE...LEAVING THE FRONT TO STALL OUT ACROSS CENTRAL PA TODAY...ROUGHLY FROM KDUJ TO KMDT BASED ON NR TERM MDLS. OVERRUNNING OF QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AT 09Z. LATEST NEAR TERM MDL DATA SUGGESTS THIS AREA OF SHRA...AT NOSE OF A WEAKENING LL JET...WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PA DURING THE LATE AM AND EARLY AFTN. CAN/T EVEN RULE OUT A TSRA THIS AM OVR SOMERSET/BEDFORD COS...WHERE RAP/NAM CAPES RANGE BTWN 500-1000 J/KG. LATEST RAP OUTPUT SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER AND SCT SHOWERS THRU EARLY AFTN WILL HOLD DOWN TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...SOME BRIGHTENING EXPECTED BY MID AFTN...AS WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC LL JET PASS EAST OF THE AREA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SCT LATE DAY TSRA ACROSS THE SW COUNTIES...WHERE GEFS CAPES TOP OUT NR 1500 J/KG. WEAK SHEAR PROFILES AND LIMITED DCAPE IMPLY A LOW CHC OF SVR WEATHER. ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE CWA...EARLY LOW CLOUDS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A PARTLY SUNNY SKIES BY AFTN...AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND COLD FRONT. ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS INDICATE POTENTIAL HIGH TEMPS FROM THE U70S TO M80S...GIVEN ENOUGH SUNSHINE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVR THE STATE TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE TO FAIR WX FOR MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...CAN/T RULE OUT A STRAY SHRA/TSRA IN VICINITY OF STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY LYING FROM THE NW MTNS INTO THE SC MTNS. QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH SUNDAY...PLACING THE ENTIRE CWA IN THE WARM/UNSTABLE AIR MASS S OF FRONT. A BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG MID LVL FLOW...COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY IN ENS/OPER MDLS...IMPLIES A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR WX SUN AFTN/EVE. MDL 8H TEMPS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF MAX TEMPS IN THE U70S TO M80S SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... LITTLE CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST...AS THE PROVERBIAL RING OF FIRE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE SOUTHEAST CONUS UPPER RIDGE WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A FAIR AMT OF MDL CONSENSUS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRYING TUES NIGHT/WED AM...AS SFC HIGH PASSES NORTH OF PA AND QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF THE STATE. UNSETTLED WX APPEARS LIKELY TO RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS INDICATED UPON RETURN OF ANOMALOUS PWATS. AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN THIS PATTERN...AS WELL AS ABOVE NORMAL MIN TEMPS BASED ON WELL ABOVE NORMAL PW. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE QUITE SUMMERLIKE...WITH VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS AND DAILY CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL PA BEFORE STALLING THIS AFT ROUGHLY FROM KDUJ TO KMDT. NORTH OF THE FRONT /KBFD/...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...LIFTING TO VFR AROUND 18Z. LOWER CIGS HAVE ALSO WORKED INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS FROM KJST-KUNV-KIPT. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY MID/LATE MORNING FOR KUNV-KIPT...WHILE KJST WILL REMAIN IN THE SOUP WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS A NW-SE ORIENTED LL JET INTERACTS WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EARLY IN THE DAY...SCT SHRA WILL WORK INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS/SC MTNS. AN ISOLATED TSTM CAN/T BE RULED OUT NEAR KJST-KAOO WHERE RAP/NAM CAPES BTWN 500-1000 J/KG. RESTRICTIONS RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG REDEVELOP OVER MAINLY WESTERN AREAS. OUTLOOK... SUN...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS MAINLY WEST. SCT SHOWERS/ISO TSTMS WITH LOCAL IMPACTS EAST. MON...CIG REDUCTIONS NW. PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE. TUE...CIG REDUCTIONS NW. LOCAL PM TSRA IMPACTS...MAINLY SW HALF. WED...NO SIG WX. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
630 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN PARKED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. PENNSYLVANIA WILL REMAIN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER RIDGE WITH A SURFACE FRONT OSCILLATING OVER THE STATE. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING WITH IT A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST DAYS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 09Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES DYING COLD FRONT ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR. PARENT SHORTWAVE HAS ALREADY PASSED NORTH OF THE STATE...LEAVING THE FRONT TO STALL OUT ACROSS CENTRAL PA TODAY...ROUGHLY FROM KDUJ TO KMDT BASED ON NR TERM MDLS. OVERRUNNING OF QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AT 09Z. LATEST NEAR TERM MDL DATA SUGGESTS THIS AREA OF SHRA...AT NOSE OF A WEAKENING LL JET...WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PA DURING THE LATE AM AND EARLY AFTN. CAN/T EVEN RULE OUT A TSRA THIS AM OVR SOMERSET/BEDFORD COS...WHERE RAP/NAM CAPES RANGE BTWN 500-1000 J/KG. LATEST RAP OUTPUT SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER AND SCT SHOWERS THRU EARLY AFTN WILL HOLD DOWN TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...SOME BRIGHTENING EXPECTED BY MID AFTN...AS WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC LL JET PASS EAST OF THE AREA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SCT LATE DAY TSRA ACROSS THE SW COUNTIES...WHERE GEFS CAPES TOP OUT NR 1500 J/KG. WEAK SHEAR PROFILES AND LIMITED DCAPE IMPLY A LOW CHC OF SVR WEATHER. ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE CWA...EARLY LOW CLOUDS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A PARTLY SUNNY SKIES BY AFTN...AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND COLD FRONT. ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS INDICATE POTENTIAL HIGH TEMPS FROM THE U70S TO M80S...GIVEN ENOUGH SUNSHINE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVR THE STATE TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE TO FAIR WX FOR MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...CAN/T RULE OUT A STRAY SHRA/TSRA IN VICINITY OF STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY LYING FROM THE NW MTNS INTO THE SC MTNS. QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH SUNDAY...PLACING THE ENTIRE CWA IN THE WARM/UNSTABLE AIR MASS S OF FRONT. A BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG MID LVL FLOW...COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY IN ENS/OPER MDLS...IMPLIES A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR WX SUN AFTN/EVE. MDL 8H TEMPS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF MAX TEMPS IN THE U70S TO M80S SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... LITTLE CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST...AS THE PROVERBIAL RING OF FIRE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE SOUTHEAST CONUS UPPER RIDGE WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A FAIR AMT OF MDL CONSENSUS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRYING TUES NIGHT/WED AM...AS SFC HIGH PASSES NORTH OF PA AND QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF THE STATE. UNSETTLED WX APPEARS LIKELY TO RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS INDICATED UPON RETURN OF ANOMALOUS PWATS. AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN THIS PATTERN...AS WELL AS ABOVE NORMAL MIN TEMPS BASED ON WELL ABOVE NORMAL PW. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE QUITE SUMMERLIKE...WITH VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS AND DAILY CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. && .AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL PA BEFORE STALLING SAT AFT. NORTH OF THE FRONT /KBFD/...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...LIFTING TO MVFR/VFR BY SAT AFT. LOWER CIGS WILL WORK INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS BY SUNRISE. AS A LL JET OVERRUNS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SCT SHRA WILL WORK INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS/SC MTNS TOWARD DAWN. AN ISOLATED TSTM CAN/T BE RULED OUT NEAR KJST-KAOO WHERE RAP/NAM CAPES BTWN 500-1000 J/KG. RESTRICTIONS SHOULD LIFT BETWEEN 15 TO 18Z. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT ROUGHLY FROM KDUJ TO KTHV. FOCUS OF CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY ON SAT...WITH BEST PROB OF TSTM IMPACTS AT KJST-KAOO. OUTLOOK... SAT...CIG RESTRICTIONS NORTH AND WEST IN THE MORNING. SCT CIG/VSBY IMPACTS FROM SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY SOUTHWEST THIRD OF PENN. SUN...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS MAINLY WEST. SCT SHOWERS/ISO TSTMS WITH LOCAL IMPACTS EAST. MON...CIG REDUCTIONS NW. PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE. TUE...CIG REDUCTIONS NW. LOCAL PM TSRA IMPACTS...MAINLY SW HALF. WED...NO SIG WX. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1145 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO LATE NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1140 AM...TEMPS A LITTLE AHEAD OF PACE IN GRIDS SO ADJUSTED TRENDS AND BUMPED MAX TEMPS UPWARD A DEGREE OR TWO. LOTS OF CU DEVELOPING PER VSBL SATELLITE WITH CAPES OUTSIDE OF MOUNTAISN PER SPC MESOAANL AROUND 1500J. 14Z HRRR STILL TARGETING EASTERN AREAS FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...SO EARLIER UPDATE FOR SCT POPS IN THAT AREA STILL LOOKS GOOD. AS OF 0940 AM...CAM`S HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN FIRING UP SCT CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN UPSTATE OF SC AND THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF NC. HENCE...WILL BUMP UP THE POPS INTO THE SCT CATEGORY THERE. IT IS INTERESTING THAT THE CAM`S DO NOT SHOW MUCH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD SUPPORT THE CONTINUATION OF SCT TYPE POPS THERE AS WELL. BUMPED MAX TEMPS UP A COUPLE DEGREES INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S OVER THE SOUTHERN UPSTATE IN DEFERENCE TO HIGHER MOS NUMBERS THERE AND TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH NEIGHBORS. AS OF 640 AM...A MUGGY JUNE MORNING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING... WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR SOME MTN VALLEY FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY AND ALL AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE A RAPID WARM-UP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH LATE MORNING TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR 80 IN THE MTN VALLEYS...TO NEAR 90 ACROSS THE LOWEST PIEDMONT ELEVATIONS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS DURING THE NEAR TERM...WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS SUPPORTING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH A DEEP LAYER DURING THE PERIOD. WHILE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT ABUNDANT AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...PERSISTENT WESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL SERVE TO KEEP DEWPOINTS FAIRLY CLOSE TO CLIMO. IN OTHER WORDS...AS THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO HEAT UP UNDER RISING HEIGHTS...THE LOWER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE LESS BUOYANT THAN IN RECENT DAYS...WHILE WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MODEST-AT-BEST LEVELS OF CAPE. THE UPSHOT IS COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS...SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY LESS THAN IN RECENT DAYS...WITH 20-40 POPS FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...THE HIGHEST BEING NEAR THE TENN BORDER IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK WESTERLY UPSLOPE COMPONENT. IN FACT...WITH TERRAIN AFFECTS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY INITIATION POINT OF SHOWERS...AND MEAN FLOW EXPECTED TO TAKE CELLS TOWARD THE E/NE...MOST OF THE NON-MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF THE UPSTATE AND NE GEORGIA ARE UNLIKELY TO SEE EVEN ISOLATED COVERAGE. REALLY THE MAIN STORY FOR THE DAY WILL BE THE HEAT...WITH FEWER SHOWERS AND CLOUDS AND RISING THICKNESSES EXPECTED TO SUPPORT MAXES FROM 90-93 IN MOST AREAS OUTSIDE THE MTNS...WHICH WOULD MAKE THIS THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE SEASON SO FAR. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS EVENING...GIVING WAY TO A RATHER WARM/MUGGY NIGHT...WITH MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AT 2 AM EDT SATURDAY...ON SUNDAY MORNING AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE SC COAST...EXTENDING WEST TO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...AND NORTH TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE RIDGE CENTER RETROGRADED TO THE LOWER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY BY MONDAY...WHILE NEARLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW REMAINS OVER THE OH AND POTOMAC VALLEYS. THE RIDGE BECOMES MORE BROAD ON MONDAY NIGHT...EXTENDING FROM THE CAROLINAS TO EAST TX...WITH ITS CENTER OVER GA. AT THE SURFACE...SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY...WITH LEE TROUGHING OVER THE PIEDMONT...AND GULF INFLOW LIMITED TO THE WESTERN GULF STATES. THIS PATTERN BASICALLY REMAINS IN PLACE INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GULF INFLOW...WHICH PUSHES EVEN FARTHER WEST INTO TX AS RIDGING EXPANDS WESTWARD. AS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE FLATTENS...THE MODELS SHOW MOISTURE ROUNDING THE RIDGE REACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL BE RATHER LIMITED UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. STEERING FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE QUITE WEEK...BUT HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL BE TEMPERED BY LIMITED LIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 7 TO 9 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AT 2 AM EDT SATURDAY...ON TUESDAY MORNING A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST...WHILE WEAK TROUGHING EXISTS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN PERSISTS INTO WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY WEAK UPPER TROUGHING PROGRESSES ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO THE EAST COAST. BY FRIDAY THE WEAKENING TROUGH REACHES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WHILE THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE GULF STREAM. UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS NEARLY ZONAL THROUGH ALL OF THIS...AND MAINLY TO OUR NORTH. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GULF STATES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE OH RIVER VALLEY. THIS FRONT STALLS TO OUR NORTH ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... WHILE THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE RIDGE MIGRATES TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...ALLOWING GULF MOISTURE TO SPREAD UP THE MS RIVER VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE BEST MOISTURE WILL RIDE AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO OUR WEST AND NORTH...ELEVATED MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT BETWEEN 800 AND 700 MB. CAPE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW NO DISTINCT WARM NOSE ALOFT...AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED. STEERING FLOW AND SHEAR WILL BE RATHER WEAK EARLY ON...BUT BOTH PARAMETERS IMPROVE LATER IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AS MUCH AS 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE...WITH THE HEAT INDEX APPROACHING 100 DEGREES SOME AFTERNOONS. && .AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE (EXCEPT KAVL)...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SCT/BKN CU IN THE 040-060 RANGE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A TS OR TWO ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY... COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIMITED AND NO TAF MENTION IS WARRANTED ATTM. THEREFORE...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WIND...WHICH HAS SHIFTED TO THE NW ABOVE THE SURFACE LAYER. THEREFORE...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STARTS TO HEAT UP LATER THIS MORNING...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE W/NW AT 5-8 KTS AT MOST TERMINALS... CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE BECMG LGT/VRBL THIS EVENING. AT KAVL...A LIGHT UP-VALLEY WIND THAT DEVELOPED A COULD OF HOURS AGO CLEARED OUT THE FOG...BUT LIFR CIGS PERSIST AND SHOULD DO SO THROUGH ABOUT 14Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTERWARD THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A TS OR TWO ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE A BIT LESS THAN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT OPTED TO INCLUDE A VCSH BEGINNING AT 18Z. RESTRICTIONS COULD REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INTRODUCE ANY LOW CIGS OR FOG ATTM. OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST IN A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTN SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE...ESP OVER THE MTNS. MORNING RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG AND/OR STRATUS MAY ALSO OCCUR...PARTICULARLY WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL IN TSRA THE PREVIOUS DAY. CONFIDENCE TABLE... 15-21Z 21-03Z 03-09Z 09-12Z KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 66% KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE) WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JAT NEAR TERM...LG SHORT TERM...JAT LONG TERM...JAT AVIATION...JDL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
1014 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 .DISCUSSION... NO UPDATE IS NEEDED THIS MORNING AS THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK. NORTHERN AREAS WILL BE FAVORED FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON REGIONAL RAOBS AND LATEST RAP AND HRRR ANALYSES. THE CURRENT MENTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS LOOKS GOOD NORTH. THE BUILDING RIDGE FROM THE SE WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION IN SOUTHERN AREAS...WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE AT BEST. COMPARING THE AREA 12Z RAOBS TO YESTERDAY...THE SOUTHERN VALELY WILL HAVE HIGHS A LITTLE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...IN THE LOWER 90S...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S NORTH. && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
422 AM MDT SAT JUN 13 2015 .SYNOPSIS... DRY WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND SUNDAY...KEEPING THE BORDERLAND MOSTLY DRY. JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST OVER THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE EAST... GIVING MUCH OF THE AREA A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPRESS MOST ANY CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND GIVE US PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THIS ALSO WILL MEAN THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON...WITH LOWLAND HIGHS RANGING FROM 100 TO 105 WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION... ELONGATED TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS BACK TO FAR SOUTHERN NEVADA...HARDLY MOVING THE PAST 24 HOURS. BIT DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS JUST TO OUR NORTH WHILE MORE UNSTABLE AIR REMAINS JUST NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. CURRENT PW`S OVER OUR AREA RANGE FROM .50 TO .75 INCHES. MOST OF CWA SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY AND SUNDAY...BUT WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE MOUNTAIN ZONES AND FAR EAST AS BOTH AREAS CLOSE TO THE MOIST UNSTABLE REGION. IN THE SHORT TERM HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD SURFACE CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING AROUND NOON OVER THE EASTERN SACS AS BRIEF EAST PUSH DEVELOPS. MODELS SHOWS FAIRLY HEAVY QPF JUST EAST OF THE SACS/CWA SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH THAT AREA CLOSELY THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LOW AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BEGIN MOVING EAST TODAY...ARRIVING OVER ARIZONA THIS EVENING AND MOVES TOWARD NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AS REMAINING PART OF THE UPPER TROUGH ALSO DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. SUNDAY STILL REMAINING MOSTLY DRY BUT WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN FOR THE MOUNTAINS. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AIRMASS BEGINS TO MOISTEN UP AND BECOME UNSTABLE AS SOME SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS. THESE SHOULD BE THE TWO BEST DAYS FOR RAIN CHANCES AREA WIDE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE. BY WEDNESDAY THE EASTERN PACIFIC HIGH BEGINS BUILDING A RIDGE EASTWARD OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO AND BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE RIDGE IS WELL IN PLACE WITH WARMER AIR ALOFT. THIS SHOULD END RAIN CHANCES BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE... WARM SUBIDENCE ALOFT AND H85 TEMPS OF AROUND 35C...WE WILL SEE OUR WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON...WITH LOWLAND HIGHS RANGING FROM 100-105 DEGREES. && AVIATION...VALID FROM 13/12Z-14/12Z. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THRU THE PERIOD WITH P6SM SKC-SCT100 EXPECTED. SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 12 KTS OR LESS. && .FIRE WEATHER... FOR THE MOST PART WEST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF OUR DRY AND HOT WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR A FEW MORE DAYS. A COUPLE OF WEAK IMPULSES IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR A FEW CLOUD BUILDUPS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE GILA AND SACRAMENTOS WHICH IN TURN COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF AFTERNOON SHOWER IN SPOTS OVER THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE THE CHANCE FOR WETTING PRECIP WILL BE LOW UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN A BACK DOOR FRONT PUSHES IN LATE MONDAY RESULTING IN INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES AND ASSOCIATED CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. IN THE MEANTIME MIN RH VALUES WILL DROP DAILY INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND LOW TO MID TEENS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE WARM CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN RATHER LOFTY MIXING HEIGHTS OF CLOSE TO 12 THOUSAND FEET OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND 14 THOUSAND FEET PLUS OVER LOWLANDS. WHEN COMBINED WITH TRANSPORT WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH THE RESULTING VENT CATEGORY WILL BE VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT BOTH TODAY AND SUNDAY. LOOK FOR 20 FOOT WINDS TO REMAIN PRIMARILY WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON WHILE BECOMING A BIT BREEZY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE NW BY LATE SUNDAY AT SPEEDS SLIGHTLY LESS THAN WHAT ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... EL PASO 98 72 99 73 / 0 0 10 10 SIERRA BLANCA 96 65 98 64 / 10 10 20 20 LAS CRUCES 96 62 98 63 / 0 0 10 10 ALAMOGORDO 96 62 99 64 / 0 0 10 20 CLOUDCROFT 74 45 76 45 / 20 10 30 20 TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 94 62 97 64 / 0 0 10 10 SILVER CITY 87 55 88 57 / 10 10 10 10 DEMING 97 59 99 61 / 0 0 10 10 LORDSBURG 96 61 98 62 / 0 0 10 10 WEST EL PASO METRO 97 66 99 68 / 0 0 10 10 DELL CITY 95 63 97 61 / 10 10 20 20 FORT HANCOCK 98 69 99 67 / 0 0 10 20 LOMA LINDA 94 62 96 63 / 10 10 10 20 FABENS 98 67 96 66 / 0 0 10 10 SANTA TERESA 97 65 99 67 / 0 0 10 10 WHITE SANDS HQ 97 65 99 66 / 10 10 10 10 JORNADA RANGE 96 59 99 61 / 0 0 10 10 HATCH 96 61 100 62 / 0 0 10 10 COLUMBUS 97 64 99 65 / 0 0 0 10 OROGRANDE 97 65 99 67 / 0 0 10 10 MAYHILL 83 49 84 50 / 20 10 30 20 MESCALERO 85 48 84 49 / 10 10 20 20 TIMBERON 84 46 84 47 / 20 10 20 20 WINSTON 87 52 86 54 / 20 10 20 10 HILLSBORO 94 57 94 59 / 10 10 10 10 SPACEPORT 96 58 99 60 / 0 0 10 10 LAKE ROBERTS 88 50 87 52 / 20 10 20 10 HURLEY 90 56 91 57 / 10 10 10 10 CLIFF 94 49 96 51 / 0 0 10 10 MULE CREEK 91 47 93 48 / 10 10 10 10 FAYWOOD 92 57 92 59 / 10 10 10 10 ANIMAS 96 59 100 62 / 0 0 0 0 HACHITA 95 58 99 60 / 0 0 0 10 ANTELOPE WELLS 97 57 100 60 / 0 0 0 0 CLOVERDALE 92 55 93 58 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 17 HEFNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
940 AM MST SAT JUN 13 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WHILE A COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES MAY SPARK SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY WITH A WARMING TREND BEGINNING SUNDAY. MUCH STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST NEXT WEEK LEADING TO A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP WHERE MANY LOWER DESERTS LOCATIONS WILL FINALLY REACH THE 110 DEGREE THRESHOLD. && .DISCUSSION... OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A SMALL POCKET OF COOLER AIR ALOFT OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING WHILE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S HAVE RESULTED IN MODEST INSTABILITY OVER THIS AREA. SATELLITE IMAGERY IDENTIFIES THIS REGION VERY WELL IN THE FORM OF CONGESTIVE ACCAS GENERALLY ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR. WHILE LARGER SCALE ASCENT HAS SHIFTED MORE SOUTH AND EAST...SEVERAL HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ONCE AGAIN TODAY PINPOINT SOME SHOWERS DESCENDING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS FAR MORE PALTRY ACROSS CNTRL ARIZONA...SUCH THAT ANY SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE DISTINCTLY HALTED. ONLY VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO POP COVERAGE AND TIMING AS PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD THIS EVOLUTION COVERED. OTHERWISE...MID MORNING TEMPERATURES WERE TRENDING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY OWING TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE H8- H7 THERMAL LAYER ALBEIT WITH HEIGHTS ALOFT NEARLY STEADY STATE. ONLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS...AS WELL AS MORE WELL DEFINED BUBBLE OF DRIER AIR WORKING THROUGH CNTRL ARIZONA. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /409 AM MST SAT JUN 13 2015/ LATEST CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN AN AREA STRETCHING FROM JTNP EASTWARD INTO EXTREME NORTHWESTERN MARICOPA COUNTY AND POPS HAVE BEEN BUMPED UPWARD TO AROUND 10 PERCENT IN THESE AREAS. THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY AS RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PROMOTES ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND INTO GILA COUNTY...THOUGH POPS AGAIN WILL REMAIN NO HIGHER THAN AROUND 10 PERCENT. BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE BUILDING HEAT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AROUND A RIDGE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. STEADY THICKNESS RISES WILL TRANSLATE INTO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...LIKELY REACHING THE 110 DEGREE MARK IN PHOENIX TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. ON AVERAGE...A 110 DEGREE HIGH IN PHOENIX IS REACHED JUNE 10TH. THICKNESSES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THOUGH THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST MOISTURE DRIFTING NORTHWARD OUT OF MEXICO WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES. BOUNDARY LAYER HEAT OFTEN TENDS TO LINGER LONGER THAN THE MODELS SUGGEST THIS TIME OF YEAR AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ABOVE THE BIAS-CORRECTED CONSENSUS BLEND AND TOWARDS THE UPPER TERCILE OF THE MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE. && .AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL... SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH... MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AND THIS SHOULD REMAIN THE CASE AT ALL SITES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING SOME DISTANT MOUNTAIN CU NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX AFTER 20Z BUT IMPACTS WILL BE NIL AT THE PHOENIX TERMINALS. COULD SEE SOME SHRA OR TSRA TO THE WEST OF BLH THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT SHOULD BE ISOLATED ENOUGH THAT IT ISN`T NECESSARY FOR THE TAFS. AS FOR WINDS...EXPECT LIGHT/DIURNALLY DRIVEN SPEEDS/DIRECTIONS AT ALL SITES. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS. && .FIRE WEATHER... MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... INCREASING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL JUNE PATTERN OF DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE AREA. SINGLE DIGIT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEK WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES IN MOST SPOTS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE ALTHOUGH SOME OCCASIONAL LATE AFTERNOON RIDGETOP BREEZINESS CAN BE EXPECTED /TYPICAL FOR MID JUNE/. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT ANY TIME THIS WEEK. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...NONE. CA...NONE. && $$ VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX DISCUSSION...MO/HIRSCH AVIATION...LEINS FIRE WEATHER...LEINS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
141 PM PDT SAT JUN 13 2015 .SYNOPSIS... RESIDUAL MOISTURE OVER THE RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS...AND HIGH DESERTS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL FORM AGAIN TONIGHT WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. SUNDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH BRINGING DRIER AND WARMER AIR TO THE REGION. BY TUESDAY...INLAND LOCATIONS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP AT 1 PM PDT SHOWS A THINNING MARINE STRATUS LAYER STRETCHING FROM THE OUTER WATERS TO AROUND 15 MILES INLAND. PILOT REPORTS HAVE SHOWN THE TOP OF THESE CLOUDS AT AROUND 2700 FT MSL. ACCORDING TO THE 12Z MORNING NKX SOUNDING...A 10 DEGREES C TEMPERATURE INVERSION RESIDES ABOVE...WHICH OFTEN INDICATES SLOW CLEARING...IF AT ALL...NEAR THE COAST. BUILDING CUMULUS TOWERS ARE ALSO OBSERVED OVER THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF HIGH DESERTS. CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR THE NORTHERN SEA OF CORTEZ WILL BRING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...AND THE HIGH DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO SHOW UP ON RADAR WITH GREATER COVERAGE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THE 13/1200Z NAM INDICATES 200-500 J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN THIS AREA. SATELLITE DERIVED PW THIS MORNING SHOWS VALUES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT VORT MAX TO TRIGGER THE CONVECTION TODAY...EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE TO FIRE UP OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS...THEN ELSEWHERE IN THE APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE 13/1200Z NAM AND 13/1900Z HRRR PROG ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL WANE AFTER DUSK WITH SURFACE HEATING NO LONGER ABLE TO MAINTAIN THE CONVECTION. TONIGHT...MARINE LAYER STRATUS WITH SIMILAR BASES AND TOPS AS LAST NIGHT...WILL DEVELOP OVER THE INLAND VALLEYS AND INLAND EMPIRE. PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FROM THE COAST TO AROUND 10 MILES INLAND. FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK...A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO EDGE IN FROM THE SOUTH. RISING 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL BRING WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME NOTICEABLY WARMER INLAND...SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES F ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY TUESDAY...WHILE ONSHORE FLOW AND A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST. NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL BECOME THE NORM...BUT BECOMES MORE SHALLOW EACH DAY. FROM THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...BOTH THE 13/1200Z GFS AND ECMWF MORE OR LESS KEEP THE RIDGING PATTERN STAGNANT ACROSS THE WEST COAST. FOR THIS REASON...THE WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH NOT MUCH DAY TO DAY VARIATION. && .AVIATION... 132000Z...COAST/VALLEYS...BKN-OVC STRATUS WITH BASES 1500-2000 FT MSL...AND TOPS 2.5K FT MSL WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE FROM THE EAST THROUGH 23Z. WITHIN 10-15 MILES OF THE COAST...THE STRATUS WILL REMAIN BKN-OVC...AND THEN SPREAD BACK INLAND UP TO 30 MILES THROUGH 06Z WITH BASES NEAR 1500 FT MSL AND TOPS NEAR 2500 FT. THE CLOUD LAYER IS EXPECTED TO LOWER BY SUN MORNING WITH BASES 600- 1200 FEET MSL AND TOPS 1700-2100 FT MSL. EXPECT AREAS OF 3-5SM VIS TO LOWER TO 1-3SM IN -DZ/BR AFTER 08Z. THE HIGHER COASTAL TERRAIN ABOVE 1000 FT MSL WILL BE OBSCURED. ABOVE THE STRATUS LAYER THROUGH 05Z...SCT-LOCALLY BKN CLOUDS AOA 10K FT MSL. MTNS/DESERTS...GENERALLY CLEAR WITH SCT CLOUDS AOA 8K FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH TONIGHT. THROUGH SUNSET...SCT-BKN CU/TCU WITH ISOLATED TSRA OVER AND NEAR THE SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...AND THE HIGH DESERTS OF SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY...WITH BASES 080-100 AND TOPS TO NEAR FL350. SMALL HAIL... HEAVY RAIN...STG UDDFS...AND LLWS DUE TO GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER TSTMS THAT DEVELOP. THE SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. && .MARINE... 1 PM PDT...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .SKYWARN... SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...JT/JJT AVIATION/MARINE...JAD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
626 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE WATERS OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD BEFORE STALLING ON SUNDAY. IT IS THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE NORTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ANTICIPATED TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY AND IT IS FORECAST TO STALL AND MEANDER ACROSS OR NEAR OUR REGION FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... THROUGH LATE-DAY AND THIS EVENING, A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY EDGE SOUTHWARD PASSING THROUGH THE DELMARVA REGION. IN ADDITION, A SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL BE PASSING NEAR OR OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN PARTS OF OUR CWA, BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA DURING THE OVERNIGHT. WITH THESE FEATURES IN MIND AND WITH AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING THROUGH THE DELMARVA AHEAD OF THE SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT, SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHWR/T-STORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE DELMARVA AND PERHAPS FAR SOUTHERN NJ. WE HAVE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR THIS THROUGH THIS EVENING, BEFORE TRENDING BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND ENDING SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SOME MID-LEVEL RIDGING EDGES OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES THEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT. HAVE LOWERED POPS IN THE REAL NEAR TERM AND WILL MONITOR AFTER THAT. HRRR IS NOT VERY OPTIMISTIC ON POPS THRU THIS EVENING SO MAY BE ABLE TO FURTHER LOWER POPS ON THE NEXT UPDATE. WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A BIT MORE COMFORTABLE THAN RECENT NIGHTS, ALONG WITH THE LESS HUMID AIR MASS SETTLING DOWN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE TOOK A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY AND EXPECT LOWS TO MAINLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF SUNDAY, WITH RIDGING ALOFT EXTENDING OVER OUR REGION. HOWEVER, THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL HAVE STALLED TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST, MOST LIKELY EXTENDING FROM AROUND THE VIRGINIA TIDEWATER NORTHWESTWARD BACK THROUGH CENTRAL PA. THIS NEARBY BOUNDARY AND A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE OVER OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON MAY TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES. WE GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS FROM CHANCE TO LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING FOR THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH SOME LOWER POPS ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE LATE-DAY PERIOD. ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS, ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AS PWATS WILL BE APPROACHING 2.0 INCHES LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. MET/MAV GUIDANCE WITH A FEW ADJUSTMENTS WAS PRIMARILY USED FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES, AND WE ANTICIPATE HIGHS TO MAINLY BE IN THE 80S FOR THE FORECAST AREA, WITH SOME COOLER 70S AT THE COAST AND PERHAPS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE MEAN LOCATION OF THE POLAR JET IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE NORTHWESTERN STATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. AS A RESULT, THE MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT ZONAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT PASSED THROUGH MOST OF OUR REGION THIS MORNING SHOULD RETURN NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRAVELING IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD PROVIDE TRIGGERING MECHANISMS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THAT PERIOD OF TIME. GULF MOISTURE RIDING AROUND THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES IS ANTICIPATED TO BE DRAWN INTO OUR REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. AS A RESULT, ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ONCE THE INITIAL FRONT LIFTS AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST FROM LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO DROP TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER OR NEAR OUR REGION FOR THE PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO THE ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW. AS A RESULT, IT SHOULD BE A RATHER UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE PEAK DIURNAL PERIOD FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN HIGH, SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS REMAIN POSSIBLE. IT IS ONE OF THOSE CASES WHEN THE FORECAST MAKES IT APPEAR AS THOUGH THE WEEK WILL BE A WASHOUT WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MENTIONED NEARLY EVERY DAY. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION MOST OF THE PERIOD, ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE RAIN-FREE. WE HAVE LOWERED THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES AND THE CLOUD COVER FOR THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT PUSH OF DRY AIR FOLLOWING THE INITIAL ARRIVAL THE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND IT SHOULD AFFECT OUR REGION FROM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION. WE WILL INDICATE ANOTHER DECREASE IN THE CLOUD COVER AND WE WILL LOWER THE CHANCE OF RAIN AS WE GET INTO NEXT WEEKEND THOUGH THE CONFIDENCE IN SOME DRYING AT THAT TIME IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH DUE TO THE NATURE OF THE EXPECTED WEATHER PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL FLUCTUATE LITTLE FROM DAY TO DAY IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. LATE DAY AND TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS. NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 8 TO 12 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KNOTS BY THIS EVENING, BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF KPHL/KILG/KMIV, ESPECIALLY LATE-DAY AND THIS EVENING. SUNDAY...CONTINUED MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. LOWER CONFIDENCE THAT A FEW SITES COULD FALL BELOW 6SM VISIBILITY AROUND DAYBREAK, AND THIS WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL START LIGHT AND VARIABLE, BECOMING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BETWEEN 5 TO 8 KNOTS FROM ABOUT MID-MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOME SCATTERED SHWRS/T- STORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO EVENING, ESPECIALLY FOR THE WESTERN SITES, BUT THIS IS LOWER CONFIDENCE AND BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD AT THIS TIME. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. CONDITIONS SHOULD VARY BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS MAY LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG. && .MARINE... SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THE AREA WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FEET AND A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED. && .RIP CURRENTS... A DEVELOPING LONG PERIOD EAST TO SOUTHEAST SWELL ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAY RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THAT TIME. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...IOVINO NEAR TERM...KLINE SHORT TERM...KLINE LONG TERM...IOVINO AVIATION...IOVINO/KLINE MARINE...IOVINO/KLINE RIP CURRENTS...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
204 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015/ .UPDATE... RIDGING STILL LOOKING TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON TO MAINLY ONLY THE FAR SW OR WEST THIS AFTERNOON. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO SKY COVER TRENDS AND REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... BAKER && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... /ISSUED 250 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015/ SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS MORNING AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUN RISE. HRRR SEEMED TO HAVE A BEST HANDLE ON THE RAIN OVERNIGHT AND IS SHOWING VERY LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE...DRIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH SUNRISE /EVEN WITH MAIN AREA OF RAIN DIMINISHING/. IF THIS OCCURS THOUGH...WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND ISOLATED THROUGH THE MORNING. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA AND THUS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE SHORT TERM HAVE LIMITED POPS TO ABOUT 20 PERCENT. THERE ARE ONCE AGAIN DISCREPANCIES IN THE HI-RES MODELS FOR THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH...SOME HINT AT SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SW PART OF THE CWA AND THUS WENT SLIGHTLY HIGH ON POPS IN THAT AREA. WITH UPPER RIDGE...WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH 90S ACROSS THE CWA /EXCEPT FOR THE MOUNTAINS/ TODAY AND TOMORROW. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE A FEW DEGREES FOR SUNDAY COMPARED TO SATURDAY WITH VALUES REACHING THE UPPER 90S ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THAT AREA WILL SEE SOME HEAT INDEX VALUES TOPPING 100 SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO STILL BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA /HEAT INDEX VALUE OF 105 OR GREATER/. REGARDLESS THOUGH...ITS STILL GOING TO BE HOT OUT AND WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OF THE YEAR SO FAR...FOLKS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA SHOULD FOLLOW HEAT SAFETY PRECAUTIONS AND LIMIT TIME OUTDOORS. 11 && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... /ISSUED 250 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015/ LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH BUILDING HIGH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WITH GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS. ECMWF IS PERHAPS A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE 500 MB HIGH BUT DIFFERENCES ARE NEGLIGIBLE AND SHOULD NOT AFFECT SENSIBLE WEATHER. DESPITE THE OVERALL SUBSIDENCE PROVIDED BY THE STACKED HIGH...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL WITH PWATS OVER 1.75 INCHES AND CLOSE TO 2 INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS. WAS WAITING A FEW RUNS TO SEE IF THIS PERSISTED AND IT HAS INDEED IN THE MODELS SO WILL NEED TO INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY IN LATEST GRID SET. THIS TREND CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY WITH UPPER HIGH GETTING A LITTLE STRONGER AND BUILDING WESTWARD WHILE MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH WITH ONLY MARGINALLY LOWER VALUES THAN MONDAY. OVERALL LIFT IN THE AFTERNOON LOOKS LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN MONDAY AND ALTHOUGH WILL MAINTAIN POPS FOR ALL AREAS...CANNOT SEE GOING HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE AT THIS POINT. MAIN WX SYSTEMS REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE AREA FOR WED ALTHOUGH HIGH DOES SHOW SOME SIGNS OF WEAKENING. MAY SEE SOME ENHANCED LATE EVENING ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FAR NW AS A RESULT BUT OVERALL POPS WILL REMAIN LIMITED IN THE LOW END CHANCE RANGE. RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN TIER. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WELL WITH PWATS OVER 2 INCHES NORTH OF A ROME TO CLEVELAND LINE REQUIRING AT LEAST HIGH END CHANCE POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. OVERALL NUMBERS AND THINKING ON BUILDING HEAT HAS NOT CHANGES WITH MONDAY AND TUESDAY TEMPERATURES NEAR 100 FOR FAR SE SECTIONS AND HEAT INDICES AROUND 105. DEESE && .AVIATION... 18Z UPDATE... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU PERIOD. FEW TO SCT CU FIELD IN 3-5 KFT RANGE DURING AFTERNOON PERIODS AND SOME ALTO OR CIRRUS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. WINDS MAINLY WEST TO SW AT 3-6 KTS WITH LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT. //ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE... HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS. BAKER && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 93 71 96 72 / 10 10 10 10 ATLANTA 90 73 92 74 / 20 10 20 10 BLAIRSVILLE 84 65 88 66 / 20 20 20 10 CARTERSVILLE 91 69 92 70 / 20 20 20 10 COLUMBUS 92 72 94 73 / 20 20 20 10 GAINESVILLE 89 71 91 72 / 10 10 20 10 MACON 94 71 96 72 / 10 10 20 10 ROME 91 69 93 70 / 20 10 20 10 PEACHTREE CITY 91 70 92 71 / 20 20 20 10 VIDALIA 95 74 95 74 / 10 10 20 10 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...11/BAKER LONG TERM....DEESE AVIATION...BAKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
208 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015 MOIST DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO PROVIDE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. ALTHOUGH ATMOSPHERE ISN`T QUITE AS MOIST AS YESTERDAY (PER 12Z KILX SOUNDING). POTENTIAL STILL REMAINS FOR SOME EFFICIENT CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE PRECIP LOADING PRODUCING STRONG WINDS. ALTHOUGH INITIAL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON HAS DEVELOPED IN SAME AREA AS LAST NIGHTS LINE WHERE INSTABILITY AXIS REMAINS...LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING OVER MISSOURI WILL BE BIGGER ORGANIZED THREAT AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS. INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL LIKELY BE PRIMED TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED STRONG WINDS. IF ORGANIZED LINES CAN DEVELOP...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS. LATEST HRRR SUGGEST SCATTERED CONVECTION EAST OF I-55 WILL BE MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE DRIVEN BY INSTABILITY AND A LACK OF SHEAR. MORE SHEAR IS PROGGED OVER WESTERN ILLINOIS AND PRECIP MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY MORNING. GROUND REMAINS LOCALLY SATURATED AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL LEADS TO SOME FLOODING POTENTIAL IN WESTERN ILLINOIS PER MPD ISSUED BY WPC. AN ESF HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LONG-RANGE HEAVY RAIN THREAT AND WILL MENTION POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IN GRIDS AND WORDED FORECASTS. && .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015 LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 4 DAYS...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS ACROSS ILLINOIS AND A LARGE RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST STATES PROVIDES A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW INTO ILLINOIS. PERIODIC SHORTWAVES, SOME CONVECTIVELY INDUCED, WILL RIDE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE LARGE UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE WAVES IN THE MODELS. HOWEVER, THERE IS ENOUGH AGREEMENT OVER ABNORMALLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND MODERATE INSTABILITY THAT WE KEPT LARGE PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS IN LIKELY POPS EACH PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEVERE CHANCES APPEAR TO BE HIGHER ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVE AND AGAIN ON MONDAY, BUT WE CANT RULE OUT INCREASING CHANCES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THOSE DAYS GET CLOSER. PRECIP LOADING IN MANY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE DOWNBURST WINDS. 0-6KM WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 30KT, WITH UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORMS TRAINING IN A LINE. SO MAIN HAZARDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE DAMAGING WINDS AND FLASH FLOODING. WILL MONITOR HAIL POTENTIAL, SINCE EVEN A SLIGHT LOWERING OF THE FREEZING LEVEL WOULD INCREASE HAIL PRODUCTION. WE CONSIDERED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH, BUT MODEL UNCERTAINTIES HAVE KEPT A LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION SEEING THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAINS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY IN THE COMING MODEL RUNS FOR A POTENTIAL OPPORTUNITY TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA OF CONCERN. FOR NOW, WILL HIGHLIGHT THE FLOODING THREAT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THE FAR EXTENDED STILL CONTAINS POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT MAY SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF OUR COUNTIES TO PROVIDE MORE SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE RAIN CHANCES FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015 CONVECTION DEVELOPING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON NEAR I-72. WILL HAVE TO INTRODUCE SOME TEMPO TSTM INITIALLY AT KSPI/KDEC/KCMI. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN SCATTERED. 12Z MODELS INDICATE MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN MISSOURI AND ADVECTING INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS DURING THE 20-24Z PERIOD. KPIA WILL LIKELY HAVE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACT WITH KSPI AND KBMI RETAINING SCATTERED COVERAGE. KILX SOUNDING FROM 12Z NOT QUITE AS MOIST AS YESTERDAY...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME DOWNBURST ACTIVITY OR EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD WIND IF A LINE CAN GET ORGANIZED. AIRCRAFT SHOULD BE CAUTIOUS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO LEAD TO EFFICIENT STORMS THAT WILL BE CAPABLE OF REDUCING VSBYS INTO MVFR OR EVEN BRIEFLY INTO IFR. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS NORTH OF TERMINALS. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BARKER LONG TERM...SHIMON AVIATION...BARKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
400 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 AIRMASS BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTN WITH RAP ANALYSIS SUGGESTING MLCAPES 2.0-2.5KJ/KG. WINDS ALOFT HAVE DECREASED SOME SINCE YDAY AS RIDGE HAS BUILT NNW FROM THE SERN CONUS... STILL MODEST SWLY FLOW WAS RESULTING IN EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 25-30KT ACROSS THE AREA WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO THERE IS SOME DRY AIR ALOFT EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP AND BUFR FCST SOUNDINGS RESULTING IN MAX SFC DELTA THETA-E VALUES >30K... SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR MICROBURSTS AND CONSIDERABLE CAPE THROUGH THE -10C TO -30C LAYER SUPPORTING HAIL GROWTH WITH ANY DEEP CONVECTION. MAIN FORCING MECHANISM APPEARS TO BE A WK SHRTWV MOVG NE ACROSS NWRN IL WITH STORMS NOW DVLPG TO ITS S-SE ACROSS CENTRAL IL/IN. ANOTHER SHRTWV OVER THE SRN PLAINS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE INTO THE WRN GRTLKS REGION TONIGHT AND THEN EAST OVER THE TOP OF THE SERN CONUS RIDGE ON SUNDAY. EXPECT AN MCS WILL DEVELOP AT NOSE OF LLJ ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE TONIGHT IMPACTING NWRN PORTION OF THE CWA FIRST... THEN SHIFTING EAST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. GIVEN THIS EXPECTATION WILL BE BUMPING UP POPS FROM CHC TO LIKELY FOR TONIGHT OVER MOST OF THE CWA... WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE TO GOING LIKELYS FOR SUNDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL A POSSIBILITY IN THIS TIMEFRAME GIVEN PWATS AROUND 2"... SMALL FCST MBE VECTORS... AND EXPECTED WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH LOWS TONIGHT AROUND 70. EXPECT CLOUDS SHOWERS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO HOLD TEMPS DOWN A BIT OVER RECENT DAYS ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS FCST IN THE L80S. && .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL PERSIST OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL APPROACH THE JUNE CLIMATOLOGICAL RECORDS NEAR 2.25 INCHES ON SEVERAL OCCASIONS. GIVEN A LONG DURATION OF THESE HIGH VALUES...CAPE VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000 J/KG COMBINED WITH A DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING FLOODING. HAVE UPDATED THE HYDROLOGICAL OUT THAT WAS ISSUED TO REFLECT THE RISK OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING. WPC/NCEP WAS INDICATING A SEVEN DAY AXIS OF 6 INCHES OF HEAVY RAIN NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVED FROM ILLINOIS TO OHIO. THESE HIGH AMOUNTS ARE SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS...ECMWF AND THE CANADIAN GEM. ALSO...RECENT RAINFALL ANALYSIS BY AHPS SHOW 2 WEEK TOTAL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 2 AND 6 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY 7 INCHES OF RAIN. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS SINCE MAY 31ST ARE SUPPORTED BY COCORAHS OBSERVATIONS. ALL CONDSIDERED...HAVE UPDATED THE ESF STATEMENT WITH THESE CONCERNS. OTHERWISE...THERE COULD BE A SHORT BREAK IN THE HUMID PATTERN LATE THIS WEEK...BUT FOR NOW...WAS HESITANT TO LOWER SUPERBLEND RAIN CHANCES. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES APPEAR FAIRLY LOW THIS PERIOD...NOT COUNTING THE CHANCES FOR FLOODING. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 SCT TS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN AND PRBLY HAVE SOME IMPACT ON THE TERMINALS. ADDED GUSTY WINDS TO THE TEMPO TS GROUP AS DRY MID LEVELS WILL SUPPORT MICROBURSTS WITH ANY DEEP CONVECTION. SHRTWV EXPECTED TO LIFT NE FROM THE PLAINS ACROSS THE WRN GRTLKS TONIGHT. INCREASE IN LLJ TO SE OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD FOCUS CONVECTION ACROSS NWRN INDIANA TONIGHT SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST OVERNIGHT. FCST SHRA WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN TAFS OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING... SOME EMBEDDED TS ALSO PSBL BUT HELD OFF INCLUDING FOR NOW. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MCD SHORT TERM...JT LONG TERM...SKIPPER AVIATION...JT VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
300 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 AIRMASS BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTN WITH RAP ANALYSIS SUGGESTING MLCAPES 2.0-2.5KJ/KG. WINDS ALOFT HAVE DECREASED SOME SINCE YDAY AS RIDGE HAS BUILT NNW FROM THE SERN CONUS... STILL MODEST SWLY FLOW WAS RESULTING IN EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 25-30KT ACROSS THE AREA WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO THERE IS SOME DRY AIR ALOFT EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP AND BUFR FCST SOUNDINGS RESULTING IN MAX SFC DELTA THETA-E VALUES >30K... SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR MICROBURSTS AND CONSIDERABLE CAPE THROUGH THE -10C TO -30C LAYER SUPPORTING HAIL GROWTH WITH ANY DEEP CONVECTION. MAIN FORCING MECHANISM APPEARS TO BE A WK SHRTWV MOVG NE ACROSS NWRN IL WITH STORMS NOW DVLPG TO ITS S-SE ACROSS CENTRAL IL/IN. ANOTHER SHRTWV OVER THE SRN PLAINS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE INTO THE WRN GRTLKS REGION TONIGHT AND THEN EAST OVER THE TOP OF THE SERN CONUS RIDGE ON SUNDAY. EXPECT AN MCS WILL DEVELOP AT NOSE OF LLJ ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE TONIGHT IMPACTING NWRN PORTION OF THE CWA FIRST... THEN SHIFTING EAST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. GIVEN THIS EXPECTATION WILL BE BUMPING UP POPS FROM CHC TO LIKELY FOR TONIGHT OVER MOST OF THE CWA... WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE TO GOING LIKELYS FOR SUNDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL A POSSIBILITY IN THIS TIMEFRAME GIVEN PWATS AROUND 2"... SMALL FCST MBE VECTORS... AND EXPECTED WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH LOWS TONIGHT AROUND 70. EXPECT CLOUDS SHOWERS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO HOLD TEMPS DOWN A BIT OVER RECENT DAYS ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS FCST IN THE L80S. && .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 WARM AND WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ALONG WITH PERIODS OF SEVERE WEATHER. SUBTROPICAL BERMUDA HIGH WILL EXPAND WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WHILE TROUGHINESS CONTINUES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST. THIS PINCHES OUR REGION WITH STRONGER WESTERLIES NEAR OR JUST TO THE NORTH AND COPIOUS MOISTURE FEED FROM GULF RIGHT INTO OUR REGION. WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL LIE PARALLEL TO MID LEVEL FLOW AND REMAIN QUASI STATIONARY OVER THE REGION BUT PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR PERIODIC THUNDERSTORMS. IMPRESSIVE PWATS BETWEEN 1.7 AND 2.0 INCHES EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. GFS BRINGS TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY FROM GULF WHICH PROMPTS A RESPONSE IN PWATS CLOSER TO 2.3 INCHES. GIVEN THE MOIST AIRMASS ALONG WITH MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO SPARK PERIODS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY HIGH CHANCE OR LIKELY POPS. JUST NO WAY TO IRON OUT DETAILS GIVEN COMPLICATED CONVECTIVE PATTERN AND BOUNDARIES. THE HIGH WATER CONTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND WARM CLOUD PROCESSES WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL WITH 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR RATES LIKELY. FLOODING REMAINS A CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLOUD COVER LOOKS ABUNDANT BUT ANY BREAKS DURING THE DAY SHOULD ALLOW INSTABILITY TO INCREASE. TIMING WITH SHORT WAVES AND KINEMATICS COULD PRODUCE BOUTS OF PULSE SEVERE WEATHER LIKE WE HAVE SEEN LAST FEW DAYS. BASICALLY FEW CHANGES TO FORECAST THINKING WITH THIS PACKAGE WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS PER LATEST SUPERBLEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 SCT TS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN AND PRBLY HAVE SOME IMPACT ON THE TERMINALS. ADDED GUSTY WINDS TO THE TEMPO TS GROUP AS DRY MID LEVELS WILL SUPPORT MICROBURSTS WITH ANY DEEP CONVECTION. SHRTWV EXPECTED TO LIFT NE FROM THE PLAINS ACROSS THE WRN GRTLKS TONIGHT. INCREASE IN LLJ TO SE OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD FOCUS CONVECTION ACROSS NWRN INDIANA TONIGHT SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST OVERNIGHT. FCST SHRA WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN TAFS OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING... SOME EMBEDDED TS ALSO PSBL BUT HELD OFF INCLUDING FOR NOW. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MCD SHORT TERM...JT LONG TERM...LASHLEY AVIATION...JT VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
149 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TODAY AS A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY HANGS OVER THE REGION. THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOWER TODAY BUT HEAVY RAIN AND A FEW GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S TODAY. CHANCES OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 AIRMASS BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTN WITH RAP ANALYSIS SUGGESTING MLCAPES 2.0-2.5KJ/KG. WINDS ALOFT HAVE DECREASED SOME SINCE YDAY AS RIDGE HAS BUILT NNW FROM THE SERN CONUS... STILL MODEST SWLY FLOW WAS RESULTING IN EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 25-30KT ACROSS THE AREA WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO THERE IS SOME DRY AIR ALOFT EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP AND BUFR FCST SOUNDINGS RESULTING IN MAX SFC DELTA THETA-E VALUES >30K... SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR MICROBURSTS AND CONSIDERABLE CAPE THROUGH THE -10C TO -30C LAYER SUPPORTING HAIL GROWTH WITH ANY DEEP CONVECTION. MAIN FORCING MECHANISM APPEARS TO BE A WK SHRTWV MOVG NE ACROSS NWRN IL WITH STORMS NOW DVLPG TO ITS S-SE ACROSS CENTRAL IL/IN. ANOTHER SHRTWV OVER THE SRN PLAINS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE INTO THE WRN GRTLKS REGION TONIGHT AND THEN EAST OVER THE TOP OF THE SERN CONUS RIDGE ON SUNDAY. EXPECT AN MCS WILL DEVELOP AT NOSE OF LLJ ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE TONIGHT IMPACTING NWRN PORTION OF THE CWA FIRST... THEN SHIFTING EAST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. GIVEN THIS EXPECTATION WILL BE BUMPING UP POPS FROM CHC TO LIKELY FOR TONIGHT OVER MOST OF THE CWA... WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE TO GOING LIKELYS FOR SUNDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL A POSSIBILITY IN THIS TIMEFRAME GIVEN PWATS AROUND 2"... SMALL FCST MBE VECTORS... AND EXPECTED WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH LOWS TONIGHT AROUND 70. EXPECT CLOUDS SHOWERS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO HOLD TEMPS DOWN A BIT OVER RECENT DAYS ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS FCST IN THE L80S. && .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 WARM AND WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ALONG WITH PERIODS OF SEVERE WEATHER. SUBTROPICAL BERMUDA HIGH WILL EXPAND WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WHILE TROUGHINESS CONTINUES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST. THIS PINCHES OUR REGION WITH STRONGER WESTERLIES NEAR OR JUST TO THE NORTH AND COPIOUS MOISTURE FEED FROM GULF RIGHT INTO OUR REGION. WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL LIE PARALLEL TO MID LEVEL FLOW AND REMAIN QUASI STATIONARY OVER THE REGION BUT PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR PERIODIC THUNDERSTORMS. IMPRESSIVE PWATS BETWEEN 1.7 AND 2.0 INCHES EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. GFS BRINGS TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY FROM GULF WHICH PROMPTS A RESPONSE IN PWATS CLOSER TO 2.3 INCHES. GIVEN THE MOIST AIRMASS ALONG WITH MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO SPARK PERIODS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY HIGH CHANCE OR LIKELY POPS. JUST NO WAY TO IRON OUT DETAILS GIVEN COMPLICATED CONVECTIVE PATTERN AND BOUNDARIES. THE HIGH WATER CONTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND WARM CLOUD PROCESSES WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL WITH 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR RATES LIKELY. FLOODING REMAINS A CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLOUD COVER LOOKS ABUNDANT BUT ANY BREAKS DURING THE DAY SHOULD ALLOW INSTABILITY TO INCREASE. TIMING WITH SHORT WAVES AND KINEMATICS COULD PRODUCE BOUTS OF PULSE SEVERE WEATHER LIKE WE HAVE SEEN LAST FEW DAYS. BASICALLY FEW CHANGES TO FORECAST THINKING WITH THIS PACKAGE WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS PER LATEST SUPERBLEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND WK SHRTWV LIFTING NE ACROSS NWRN IL EXPECTED TO CAUSE SCT TS ACROSS NRN INDIANA THIS AFTN WHICH SHOULD IMPACT THE TERMINALS. ADDED GUSTY WINDS TO THE TEMPO TS GROUPS AS DRY MID LEVELS WILL SUPPORT STRONG DOWNDRAFTS/PSBL MICROBURSTS WITH ANY DEEP CONVECTION. SHRTWV EXPECTED TO LIFT NE FROM THE PLAINS ACROSS THE WRN GRTLKS TONIGHT. INCREASE IN LLJ TO SE OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD FOCUS CONVECTION ACROSS NWRN INDIANA TONIGHT SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST OVERNIGHT. FCST SHRA WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN TAFS OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING... SOME EMBEDDED TS ALSO PSBL BUT HELD OFF INCLUDING FOR NOW. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AGD SHORT TERM...JT LONG TERM...LASHLEY AVIATION...JT VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
641 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2015 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)... Updated at 305 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2015 Scattered showers and thunderstorms have erupted over parts of south-central and western KY in the warm, humid, and essentially uncapped air mass. The storms over south-central KY are putting down some brief heavy rain and perhaps a few brief wind gusts, but downward CAPE (DCAPE) values are very marginal (500 J/kg or less) due to ample atmospheric moisture and weak lapse rates aloft. Thus, am expecting little or no microburst activity with these storms. The cells over western KY are showing a bit better organization at this time, and if they can hold together and move into a slightly more favorable environment in south-central IN late this afternoon, then a few stronger cells are possible. Nevertheless, given a lack of organized forcing, storms will weaken/ dissipate early this evening in most areas as they continue to move northeast. The latest HRRR even shows the cells in western KY weakening later on as they move northeast. This will leave a mostly clear sky south and partly cloudy sky north overnight across our area. There could be patchy fog/haze early Sunday morning, especially where showers occur this afternoon, but not expecting anything widespread or dense. Short range models in good overall agreement with a summer pattern in store on Sunday. Mid-level ridge will continue to build to the northwest across KY Sunday with 500 mb heights rising a bit. There also should be a little less moisture in the atmosphere. As a result, there will be less coverage Sunday afternoon, and south- central KY may stay precip free other than perhaps an isolated storm here or there. A slightly better chance for diurnal afternoon isolated to scattered cells will occur roughly along and north of Interstate 64 on the periphery of the upper ridge and closer to the better stream of moisture around this ridge. Once again, any activity should weaken Sunday evening. However, cannot rule out isolated/scattered nocturnal cells Sunday night over southern IN, again closer to the stream of moisture on the northern fringe of the upper ridge. Lows tonight should be roughly around 70 (warmer in Louisville). Highs Sunday afternoon will top out near 90 or the lower 90s in central KY with mid-upper 80s in southern IN. Lows Sunday night will average in the lower 70s across the region. .LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)... Issued at 315 PM EDT Sat June 13 2015 Warm and humid are the two most certain words for the extended forecast for the Louisville CWA. The overall upper air pattern changes little during the period, with a weak Bermuda High spinning off the coast of Florida and the polar jet racing in a nearly zonal fashion across the northern CONUS. The result of this will be an abundance of Gulf moisture streaming north up the Mississippi Valley, helping to fuel thunderstorms from the southern and central Plains to the Great Lakes with any of a number of short waves flowing through the northern jet, and catching impulses flowing north around the Bermuda High. Model guidance is in good agreement on this overall stagnant pattern, but as usual, the devil is in the details. For the land between the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, that means dry to the south, wet to the north, and the hit-and-miss storms in between - right over us. At least that looks to be the scenario for most of the period. The 12Z runs are all picking up on a bit more energy riding in from the western Gulf and breaking down the ridge on Thursday, though. This would provide the opportunity for more organized convection then. Regardless of the day and coverage, though thanks to the deep moisture riding from the Gulf around the subtropical High off the Florida coast, any storms that do develop will be soakers, as precipitable water values will be in the 1.5"-2" range throughout the time frame. Temperature-wise, both daytime highs and overnight lows will be above normal through the period, but only by 5 to as many as 10 degrees. That works out to most highs being in the mid 80s to around 90, with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)... Updated at 640 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2015 Scattered showers and thunderstorms have been diminishing over the past hour and will continue to do so. Think that any remaining showers should mainly stay away from the terminals, so will have a dry forecast this evening and overnight. Winds will relax over the next hour or two as well and will be out of the south overnight around 5-8 knots. Some light fog or haze will be possible around daybreak at BWG. Winds will pick back up again tomorrow morning and may become a bit gusty in the afternoon with sustained winds around 12 knots. Most of the storms will be suppressed by a ridge tomorrow. The best chance for storms to impact any terminal will be at SDF, so will carry VCTS there. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Short Term........TWF Long Term.........JBS Aviation..........EER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
325 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2015 .SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)... Updated at 305 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2015 Scattered showers and thunderstorms have erupted over parts of south-central and western KY in the warm, humid, and essentially uncapped air mass. The storms over south-central KY are putting down some brief heavy rain and perhaps a few brief wind gusts, but downward CAPE (DCAPE) values are very marginal (500 J/kg or less) due to ample atmospheric moisture and weak lapse rates aloft. Thus, am expecting little or no microburst activity with these storms. The cells over western KY are showing a bit better organization at this time, and if they can hold together and move into a slightly more favorable environment in south-central IN late this afternoon, then a few stronger cells are possible. Nevertheless, given a lack of organized forcing, storms will weaken/ dissipate early this evening in most areas as they continue to move northeast. The latest HRRR even shows the cells in western KY weakening later on as they move northeast. This will leave a mostly clear sky south and partly cloudy sky north overnight across our area. There could be patchy fog/haze early Sunday morning, especially where showers occur this afternoon, but not expecting anything widespread or dense. Short range models in good overall agreement with a summer pattern in store on Sunday. Mid-level ridge will continue to build to the northwest across KY Sunday with 500 mb heights rising a bit. There also should be a little less moisture in the atmosphere. As a result, there will be less coverage Sunday afternoon, and south- central KY may stay precip free other than perhaps an isolated storm here or there. A slightly better chance for diurnal afternoon isolated to scattered cells will occur roughly along and north of Interstate 64 on the periphery of the upper ridge and closer to the better stream of moisture around this ridge. Once again, any activity should weaken Sunday evening. However, cannot rule out isolated/scattered nocturnal cells Sunday night over southern IN, again closer to the stream of moisture on the northern fringe of the upper ridge. Lows tonight should be roughly around 70 (warmer in Louisville). Highs Sunday afternoon will top out near 90 or the lower 90s in central KY with mid-upper 80s in southern IN. Lows Sunday night will average in the lower 70s across the region. .LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)... Issued at 315 PM EDT Sat June 13 2015 Warm and humid are the two most certain words for the extended forecast for the Louisville CWA. The overall upper air pattern changes little during the period, with a weak Bermuda High spinning off the coast of Florida and the polar jet racing in a nearly zonal fashion across the northern CONUS. The result of this will be an abundance of Gulf moisture streaming north up the Mississippi Valley, helping to fuel thunderstorms from the southern and central Plains to the Great Lakes with any of a number of short waves flowing through the northern jet, and catching impulses flowing north around the Bermuda High. Model guidance is in good agreement on this overall stagnant pattern, but as usual, the devil is in the details. For the land between the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, that means dry to the south, wet to the north, and the hit-and-miss storms in between - right over us. At least that looks to be the scenario for most of the period. The 12Z runs are all picking up on a bit more energy riding in from the western Gulf and breaking down the ridge on Thursday, though. This would provide the opportunity for more organized convection then. Regardless of the day and coverage, though thanks to the deep moisture riding from the Gulf around the subtropical High off the Florida coast, any storms that do develop will be soakers, as precipitable water values will be in the 1.5"-2" range throughout the time frame. Temperature-wise, both daytime highs and overnight lows will be above normal through the period, but only by 5 to as many as 10 degrees. That works out to most highs being in the mid 80s to around 90, with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)... Updated at 110 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2015 With diurnal heating ongoing, scattered showers and thunderstorms are now developing over parts of south-central KY, and the same should occur farther north over north-central and east-central KY this afternoon. Thus, all 3 TAF sites will have scattered cells nearby this afternoon, with most activity lifting north of BWG by late afternoon. Conditions will remain VFR this afternoon, but briefly deteriorate if a storm moves across the site. Scattered storms will dissipate this evening leaving areas of mid-level clouds overnight. There could be light fog or haze at BWG early Sunday morning. On Sunday, diurnal cumulus clouds should again develop by late morning, with isolated storms possible in the afternoon over northern areas. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Short Term........TWF Long Term.........JBS Aviation..........TWF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
246 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP A BIT FOR RECENT OBSERVATION AND RADAR TRENDS. THIS LED TO VERY LITTLE CHANGE ATTM. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1125 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS AS WELL AS SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA. THE REGION REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR TO THE SOUTH OF A FRONTAL ZONE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WEST INTO THE MIDWEST AND PLAINS STATES. A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY...BUT THE NEAR TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUCH AS RECENT HRRR RUNS AND THE 14Z RAP KEEP THE FAR SOUTHWEST DRIER TODAY AND FOCUSES ACTIVITY FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA. RATHER MEAGER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD AGAIN LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING TODAY AND OVERALL COVERAGE. UPDATE ISSUED AT 706 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 FORECAST STILL LOOKING GOOD SO FAR THIS MORNING. HOURLY TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ARE PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK WITH FORECAST VALUES. THE LATEST OBS DATA WAS INGESTED INTO THE HOURLY GRIDS TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS AS WELL. ASIDE FROM THE THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO FURTHER CHANGES NEEDED. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION ONSET TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND THE OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS WEEKEND WILL BE DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING AND A STEADY FEED OF MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE BEST TIME FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS DURING PEAK HEATING. BASED ON THE NAM12 MODEL...AN IMPULSE OF ENERGY WILL MIGRATE AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SOUTHEASTERN CONUS RIDGE TODAY...BRINGING SOME WEAK LIFT AND GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. ONCE THIS BIT OF ENERGY MIGRATES NORTH OF THE AREA...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY DROP OFF IN COVERAGE RATHER QUICKLY. THE ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FROM ROUGHLY 8Z ONWARD FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SUNDAY STAY GENERALLY NORTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL LIKELY BE DUE TO A SLIGHTLY WEAKER CAPPING INVERSION AND THE FACT THAT A SLUGGISH FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY SITUATED WELL NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...AS THE ENTIRE REGION REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A MID LATITUDE CYCLONE. TODAYS HIGHS SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA. CONDITIONS COULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER ON SUNDAY...AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE A BIT...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT AROUND 90. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE BULK OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL SUPPORT THE IDEA OF A MODERATELY STRONG SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE SETTING UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE NATION THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK. BY TUESDAY...THOUGH...THIS RIDGE WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTH BY A FLOW OF ENERGY WAVES OVER ITS NORTHERN FRINGE AND RUNNING NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. IN ADDITION...THE GEM AND GFS SHOW A TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER THE EASTERN SOUTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS FLATTER IN THIS AREA. EITHER WAY...A SHALLOW TROUGH LOOKS TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY WITH ITS TRAIN OF MID LEVEL ENERGY PASSING THROUGH KENTUCKY AS THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE WILL BE MOMENTARILY PRESSED FURTHER SOUTH. SOME REBOUNDING IS SHOWN WITH THIS RIDGE FOR FRIDAY BUT THE PARADE OF ENERGY PACKETS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE BLUEGRASS STATE EVEN AS IT RESTRENGTHENS...MAKING MCS AND HEAVY RAIN ACTIVITY A CONCERN FOR OUR AREA DURING THE MID AND LATTER PARTS OF THE FORECAST. GIVEN THE GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED A SOLUTION FOR THE EXTENDED THAT IS A BLEND OF THE MODELS... THOUGH ONE WHERE THE DIURNAL CYCLE DOMINATES. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A NEARBY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO START NEXT WEEK IN WHICH THE BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS FRONT SETTLES FURTHER SOUTH FOR MIDWEEK AND WILL PLACE KENTUCKY IN THE SIGHTS OF MORE ORGANIZED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...FUELED BY AMPLE MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND WARMTH BUILT BENEATH THE SOUTHERN RIDGE. THE...STILL MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...CONVECTION WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE MORE TO THE NORTH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ANYTIME GIVEN THE PATTERN...THOUGH THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS WILL BE CLEARLY FAVORED. WARM...HUMID...AND STORMY WILL BE THE CATCH PHRASE THAT BEST DESCRIBES THE WX FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THE CR GRID BLEND CAME IN DECENT WITH THE BULK OF ANY ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR A DIURNAL CYCLE DOMINATED PATTERN OF CONVECTION THROUGHOUT. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DID TWEAK THE LOWS A SMIDGEN TO REPRESENT ONLY MINOR TERRAIN EFFECTS EACH NIGHT GIVEN THE UPCOMING HIGH MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 THE REGION REMAINS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST...WHILE A FRONTAL ZONE IS GENERALLY STALLED OUT NEAR OR TO THE NORTH OF THE I 70 CORRIDOR. THIS IS LEADING RATHER DEEP SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA AND TSRA SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY...BUT DIMINISH BY 2Z OR SO. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF THIS SOME MVFR OR IFR RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD AFFECT SOME AREAS BETWEEN 6Z AND DIMINISH BY 13Z OR SO. GENERALLY VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR OR IFR IS POSSIBLE IF A SHOWER OR STORM DIRECTLY AFFECTS ONE OF THE TAF SITES. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...GREIF AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
323 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FROM PENNSYLVANIA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT NEAR WASHINGTON DC ON SUNDAY AND THEN MOVE BACK TO THE NORTHEAST AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES BY TO THE NORTH NONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT TRAILING THAT LOW WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY...BUT ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NORTH WILL BRING IT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... ON GOING ACTIVITY THIS AFTN...WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN VA AND ISOLATED TSTMS MVG INTO CENTRAL VA. SOME QUESTION ON THE EXTENT OF THE PCPN THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN AS MESO MODELS EARLIER TODAY SEEMED TO HAVE BEEN OVER DOING CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL LINGERING NORTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE...WHICH WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTH BY TONIGHT. RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US WILL MINIMIZE SOUTHERN PROGRESSION AND THE EXPECTATION THEN IS THAT FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE REGION THRU SUN. WITH THE FRONT STILL TO THE NORTH...THINKING ANY LATE AFTN ACTIVITY WOULD BE THE RESULT OF WEAK SFC TROUGH STRETCHING ACROSS THE REGION...COMBINING WITH SBCAPE VALUES OF OVER 1500 J/KG AND RE ENFORCED WITH ENERGY ALOFT FROM A PASSING SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY...AS NOTED ON THE 18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ONE CAVEAT IS THAT SPC MESOANALYSIS IS SHOWING CAPE MINIMUM OVER WV AT THE MOMENT...AND WITH PERSISTENT MID LVL DECK...BY THE TIME THE SHORTWAVE DOES MAKE IT INTO THE REGION...ENOUGH INSTABILITY WOULD HAVE BEEN LOST...WEAKENING ANY IN COMING CONVECTION. 17Z HRRR IS SUGGESTING THIS...BUT WITH A LACK OF MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVING CAPTURED TODAY...ITS HARD TO BE CONFIDENT ON HOW FAR EAST THESE STORMS MAKE IT. WILL KEEP SCT WORDING OF SHOWERS AND ISO TSTM IN THIS AFTN AND INTO THE EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. IF THE STORMS CAN HOLD TOGETHER PAST CENTRAL WV...COULD VERY WELL SEE POPS BEING UPPED...AT LEAST WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. FOR TONIGHT...PCPN DIMINISHES. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER SO WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHC POPS IN. ANOTHER NIGHT OF ABV NORMAL LOWS...WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S-MID 70S. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY...WITH IN FACT THE NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK ON SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS EXTENDED NORTH-SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THINKING A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA HITS A DRY PERIOD IN THE MORNING...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION BY THE AFTN. ANOTHER WARM...MOIST DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S...AND DEW PTS IN THE LOWER 70S PUSHES SBCAPE VALUES TO BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG...WITH A MAXIMA EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MD DOWN TO NEAR DC METRO AND INTO THE PIEDMONT. THIS...COMBINING WITH STRENGTHENING UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR OF AROUND 30 KTS SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME STRONGER TO SVR TSTMS...MAINLY AFTR 18Z AND INTO THE EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG-DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY HAIL. THIS THREAT WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SUNDAY EVENING COMBINED WITH AMPLE CAPE TO START AND SOME DECENT SHEAR SHOULD KEEP POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GOING FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS SUNDAY EVENING. THE SHORTWAVE DOES NOT APPEAR TO CLEAR THE AREA TIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING AND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED IN THE AREA...SO WHILE STORMS WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN LATER AT NIGHT...THE LIFT MAY KEEP SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING. LOWS WILL STAY SULTRY WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND. ON MONDAY ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY/EVENING AND ONCE AGAIN SOME CAPE AND SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT...SO ONCE AGAIN WE HAVE A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. MAIN THREAT AGAIN APPEARS TO BE WIND. SOME GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING WE MIGHT HAVE SOME CLOUD DEBRIS ISSUES BUT FOR THE TIME BEING HAVE NOT FACTORED THIS INTO THE FORECAST MUCH. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER WARM SULTRY DAY WITH THE WEAK FRONT STUCK OVER THE AREA AND HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE HIGH 60S AND LOW 70S. ANY STORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO MOVE EAST AND/OR DIE OUT MONDAY EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF INSOLATION AND THE SHORTWAVE HEADING EAST...SO HAVE KEPT THE LATE NIGHT DRY. FRONT FINALLY PUSH NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT SO LOWS AGAIN WILL BE SULTRY WITH 70S IN MANY AREAS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... CENTER OF UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH TUE...HELPING TO MAINTAIN CONSTANT FETCH OF MOISTURE FROM GOM. COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH CWA TUE...WHICH WILL HELP TO GENERATE TSTMS. FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL SOMEWHERE IN OUR AREA...WITH GREATEST TSTM CHCS CLOSER TO FRONT IN N HALF OF CWA. MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH FAIRLY WEAK SHEAR WILL LEAD TO MORE PULSE-TYPE TSTMS. FRONT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...MEANDERING IN AND OUT OF THE CWA. THIS WILL KEEP TSTM CHCS IN FORECAST NEARLY EVERY DAY. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BREAKDOWN WED LEADING TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. THIS HELPS TO INCREASE THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FLOW ALOFT...WHICH COULD LEAD TO MORE ORGANIZED AND STRONGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. WHILE IT WILL BE HOT THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH MAX/MIN TEMPS AOA NRML EACH DAY...NO SIGN OF EXTREME HEAT. IF YOU ARE LUCKY ENOUGH TO BE NORTH OF THE FRONT IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE M60S...SOUTH OF THE FRONT DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE U60S/L70S. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF PERIOD. SCT SHOWERS PSBL THIS AFTN...WITH AN ISOLATED THREAT OF THUNDER AT THE DC SITES AND WEST. LOW CONFIDENCE OF PCPN OCCURRING AT BWI/MTN SO WILL JUST KEEP VCSH FOR NOW. ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES FORM COULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS. OTHERWISE...WINDS NW 10 KTS OR LESS. MAINLY DRY TONIGHT-SUN...WITH LIGHT/VRB WINDS. INCRSG CHC OF TSTMS SUN AFTN...GENERALLY AFTR 18Z. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SVR WITH STRONG GUSTS AND PSBL HAIL. THESE STORMS COULD ALSO BRING A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CIGS/VIS. SOME SHOWERS MAY ALSO LINGER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY VFR THOUGH HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY RESULT IN SUB-VFR VIS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM...EXCEPT IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WHERE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. && .MARINE... SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THRU MONDAY NIGHT. CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS THRU THIS EVENING COULD BRING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS. ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION EXPECTED ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD BRING GUSTY WINDS AND PSBL HAIL...MAINLY DURING THE AFTN. WINDS MIGHT APPROACH SCA CRITERIA TUE. OTHERWISE...MARINERS SHOULD MONITOR FORECAST AS TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY DURING THE EXTENDED. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RCM NEAR TERM...SEARS SHORT TERM...RCM LONG TERM...MSE AVIATION...SEARS/RCM/MSE MARINE...SEARS/RCM/MSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
315 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 .SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FROM PENNSYLVANIA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT NEAR WASHINGTON DC ON SUNDAY AND THEN MOVE BACK TO THE NORTHEAST AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES BY TO THE NORTH. A COLD FRONT TRAILING THAT LOW WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY...BUT ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NORTH WILL BRING IT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... ON GOING ACTIVITY THIS AFTN...WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN VA AND ISOLATED TSTMS MVG INTO CENTRAL VA. SOME QUESTION ON THE EXTENT OF THE PCPN THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN AS MESO MODELS EARLIER TODAY SEEMED TO HAVE BEEN OVER DOING CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL LINGERING NORTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE...WHICH WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTH BY TONIGHT. RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US WILL MINIMIZE SOUTHERN PROGRESSION AND THE EXPECTATION THEN IS THAT FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE REGION THRU SUN. WITH THE FRONT STILL TO THE NORTH...THINKING ANY LATE AFTN ACTIVITY WOULD BE THE RESULT OF WEAK SFC TROUGH STRETCHING ACROSS THE REGION...COMBINING WITH SBCAPE VALUES OF OVER 1500 J/KG AND RE ENFORCED WITH ENERGY ALOFT FROM A PASSING SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY...AS NOTED ON THE 18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ONE CAVEAT IS THAT SPC MESOANALYSIS IS SHOWING CAPE MINIMUM OVER WV AT THE MOMENT...AND WITH PERSISTENT MID LVL DECK...BY THE TIME THE SHORTWAVE DOES MAKE IT INTO THE REGION...ENOUGH INSTABILITY WOULD HAVE BEEN LOST...WEAKENING ANY IN COMING CONVECTION. 17Z HRRR IS SUGGESTING THIS...BUT WITH A LACK OF MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVING CAPTURED TODAY...ITS HARD TO BE CONFIDENT ON HOW FAR EAST THESE STORMS MAKE IT. WILL KEEP SCT WORDING OF SHOWERS AND ISO TSTM IN THIS AFTN AND INTO THE EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. IF THE STORMS CAN HOLD TOGETHER PAST CENTRAL WV...COULD VERY WELL SEE POPS BEING UPPED...AT LEAST WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. FOR TONIGHT...PCPN DIMINISHES. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER SO WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHC POPS IN. ANOTHER NIGHT OF ABV NORMAL LOWS...WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S-MID 70S. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY...WITH IN FACT THE NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK ON SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS EXTENDED NORTH-SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THINKING A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA HITS A DRY PERIOD IN THE MORNING...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION BY THE AFTN. ANOTHER WARM...MOIST DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S...AND DEW PTS IN THE LOWER 70S PUSHES SBCAPE VALUES TO BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG...WITH A MAXIMA EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MD DOWN TO NEAR DC METRO AND INTO THE PIEDMONT. THIS...COMBINING WITH STRENGTHENING UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR OF AROUND 30 KTS SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME STRONGER TO SVR TSTMS...MAINLY AFTR 18Z AND INTO THE EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG-DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY HAIL. THIS THREAT WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SUNDAY EVENING COMBINED WITH AMPLE CAPE TO START AND SOME DECENT SHEAR SHOULD KEEP POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GOING FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS SUNDAY EVENING. THE SHORTWAVE DOES NOT APPEAR TO CLEAR THE AREA TIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING AND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED IN THE AREA...SO WHILE STORMS WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN LATER AT NIGHT...THE LIFT MAY KEEP SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING. LOWS WILL STAY SULTRY WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND. ON MONDAY ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY/EVENING AND ONCE AGAIN SOME CAPE AND SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT...SO ONCE AGAIN WE HAVE A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. MAIN THREAT AGAIN APPEARS TO BE WIND. SOME GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING WE MIGHT HAVE SOME CLOUD DEBRIS ISSUES BUT FOR THE TIME BEING HAVE NOT FACTORED THIS INTO THE FORECAST MUCH. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER WARM SULTRY DAY WITH THE WEAK FRONT STUCK OVER THE AREA AND HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE HIGH 60S AND LOW 70S. ANY STORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO MOVE EAST AND/OR DIE OUT MONDAY EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF INSOLATION AND THE SHORTWAVE HEADING EAST...SO HAVE KEPT THE LATE NIGHT DRY. FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED IN THE AREA AND LOWS AGAIN WILL BE SULTRY WITH 70S IN MANY AREAS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... CENTER OF UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH TUE...HELPING TO MAINTAIN CONSTANT FETCH OF MOISTURE FROM GOM. COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH CWA TUE...WHICH WILL HELP TO GENERATE TSTMS. FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL SOMEWHERE IN OUR AREA...WITH GREATEST TSTM CHCS CLOSER TO FRONT IN N HALF OF CWA. MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH FAIRLY WEAK SHEAR WILL LEAD TO MORE PULSE-TYPE TSTMS. FRONT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...MEANDERING IN AND OUT OF THE CWA. THIS WILL KEEP TSTM CHCS IN FORECAST NEARLY EVERY DAY. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BREAKDOWN WED LEADING TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. THIS HELPS TO INCREASE THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FLOW ALOFT...WHICH COULD LEAD TO MORE ORGANIZED AND STRONGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. WHILE IT WILL BE HOT THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH MAX/MIN TEMPS AOA NRML EACH DAY...NO SIGN OF EXTREME HEAT. IF YOU ARE LUCKY ENOUGH TO BE NORTH OF THE FRONT IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE M60S...SOUTH OF THE FRONT DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE U60S/L70S. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF PERIOD. SCT SHOWERS PSBL THIS AFTN...WITH AN ISOLATED THREAT OF THUNDER AT THE DC SITES AND WEST. LOW CONFIDENCE OF PCPN OCCURRING AT BWI/MTN SO WILL JUST KEEP VCSH FOR NOW. ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES FORM COULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS. OTHERWISE...WINDS NW 10 KTS OR LESS. MAINLY DRY TONIGHT-SUN...WITH LIGHT/VRB WINDS. INCRSG CHC OF TSTMS SUN AFTN...GENERALLY AFTR 18Z. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SVR WITH STRONG GUSTS AND PSBL HAIL. THESE STORMS COULD ALSO BRING A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CIGS/VIS. SOME SHOWERS MAY ALSO LINGER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY VFR THOUGH HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY RESULT IN SUB-VFR VIS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM...EXCEPT IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WHERE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. && .MARINE... SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THRU MONDAY NIGHT. CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS THRU THIS EVENING COULD BRING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS. ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION EXPECTED ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD BRING GUSTY WINDS AND PSBL HAIL...MAINLY DURING THE AFTN. WINDS MIGHT APPROACH SCA CRITERIA TUE. OTHERWISE...MARINERS SHOULD MONITOR FORECAST AS TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY DURING THE EXTENDED. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RCM NEAR TERM...SEARS SHORT TERM...RCM LONG TERM...MSE AVIATION...SEARS/RCM/MSE MARINE...SEARS/RCM/MSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
247 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN WISCONSIN AT THIS TIME...LEADING TO AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHWEST OF ONTONAGON SOUTHWEST INTO WEST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS (LOCATED IN THE COMMA HEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE) WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT AND SHIFT NORTH ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MEANWHILE...THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL/EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING (CURRENTLY IN EASTERN WISCONSIN) AND BE AIDING SHOWERS THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THAT AREA. THUS...HAVE SHOWN A GRADUAL DIMINISHMENT IN THE POPS OVER THE WEST THIS EVENING...WITH A TREND TO THE EAST WITH THE BETTER SUPPORT FROM THE SHORTWAVE AND LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. AS THIS INITIAL PUSH OF SHOWERS MOVES INTO THE CWA...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA (ALREADY SEEN IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN WISCONSIN WITH LOW CEILINGS AND 2-3MI VISIBILITIES). THESE LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE BEEN SEEING DENSE FOG SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY NORTH ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE IN WISCONSIN THROUGH THE DAY AND WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...WOULD EXPECT FOG (LIKELY DENSE) TO AFFECT NORTHWEST LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THAT TIME. THE WINDS AREN/T THE MOST FAVORABLE...BUT WITH WATER TEMPS STILL ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S...HAVE A FEELING THE FOG WILL REALLY EXPAND/THICKEN TONIGHT AND MAY NEED A MARINE FOG ADVISORY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION FOG OVER THE LAND AREAS TOO...BASED ON THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LOW CLOUDS MOVING NORTH INTO THE AREA. ARE SEEING SOME SPECKS OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING AND THINKING THAT IS LARGELY DUE TO DRIZZLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CLOUDS. WITH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME WEAK LIFT WITHIN THE LOW CLOUDS...WILL SHOW PATCHY DRIZZLE BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND THEN SHIFTING OVER JUST THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA TOMORROW MORNING. A SECOND SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY IN NORTHERN MISSOURI...WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE LOCATED FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND ONLY BRUSH THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. BEHIND THAT SECOND SHORTWAVE...THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN FEATURES...AS AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING EAST THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. A LOW CENTERED NEAR WESTERN HUDSON BAY WILL HAVE A COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTH THROUGH NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND THE EASTERN DAKOTAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW LOW THE LOW CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE DAY AND IF ANY OF THE FOG OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL AFFECT THE SHORELINE AREAS UNDER THE LIGHT WINDS. MODELS SEEM CONSISTENT THAT THERE WILL BE EITHER SOME BREAKS OR SCATTERING OUT OF THE LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE U.P.. BUT BELIEVE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH ADDED LIFT FROM DIURNAL HEATING AND ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO KEEP CONDITIONS MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE EASTERN HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA. DID LINGER SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE TOMORROW AFTERNOON FROM GWINN TO NEWBERRY WITH THE ADDED LIFT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 HOPING MODELS IN THE LONG TERM VERIFY BETTER THAN OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS...WHEN MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN ABSOLUTELY AWFUL. SUN NIGHT SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY...BUT DRY FOR THE MOST PART. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT (RESULTING FROM A SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS CANADA) TO DURING THE DAY ON MON...WHICH IF THAT DID OCCUR WOULD RESULT IN PRECIP MAINLY OVER LAND DURING PEAK HEATING. WILL RUN WITH CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE...WHICH RESULTS IN CHANCE POPS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN MON NIGHT AND TUE...RESULTING IN PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER AND SUNNY SKIES. SHOULD BE A COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 70 AS 850MB TEMPS WILL BE 5-8C. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SAT AS MODELS STRUGGLE TO HANDLE AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE THAT MAY MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN TUE NIGHT AND WED NIGHT. ALSO...MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH THAT MAY MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN THU AND FRI NIGHT...AND WITH POSSIBLY ANOTHER WAVE NEXT SAT. WILL JUST RUN WITH A 50/50 BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CONSENSUS GUIDANCE GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 DRY AIR IN PLACE FROM A DEPARTING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. BUT A DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH WISCONSIN WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MAINLY KIWD THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN REFOCUS OVER THE EAST TOWARDS EVENING. AS THESE SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA...LEADING TO RAPIDLY LOWERING CEILINGS TO IFR OR LOWER...ALONG WITH FOG AND DRIZZLE. DO HAVE SOME CONCERN ON HOW FAR NORTH THEY WILL MAKE IT...BUT THINK THE LOW CEILINGS SHOULD STILL PUSH INTO KCMX OVERNIGHT. THOSE LOW CEILINGS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE STARTING TO RISE TOWARDS MVFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL LEAD TO WINDS STAYING BELOW 20KTS FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK. THE STRONGEST WIND ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON MONDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT...BUT THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 20KTS. WARM AND MOIST AIR STREAMING NORTH INTO THE AREA TODAY INTO SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT LOCALLY DENSE FOG TO OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...AIDED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT WILL FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LAKE TONIGHT. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SRF LONG TERM...TITUS AVIATION...SRF MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
147 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 .AVIATION... TRICKY FORECAST THIS CYCLE AS CEILINGS/FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL REMAIN HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON THE PRECISE LOCATION OF A WARM FRONT THAT HAS BEEN WOBBLING NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE REGION FOR A FEW DAYS NOW. MOIST AIRMASS HAS ALLOWED A STRATUS DECK TO REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE UNDER A STRONG INVERSION SO FAR TODAY. CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. BEST IMPROVEMENT LOOKS TO BE AT THE DETROIT-AREA TERMINALS AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TOWARDS THE OHIO BORDER DURING THE VERY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL LIFT ACROSS WISCONSIN THE U.P. OF MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING SHOWERS (PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS) TO FILL IN ALONG THE WARM FRONT AS IT CONTINUES TO VERY SLOWLY LIFT TOWARDS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN AND REINFORCING MVFR CEILINGS/VIS CONDITIONS. SOME IMPROVEMENT LOOKS TO BE SEEN AGAIN BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE FRONT (FNT SOUTHWARD)...BEFORE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. FOR DTW...MVFR CIGS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT SOME IMPROVEMENT IN HEIGHTS IS EXPECTED AS A WARM FRONTS LIFTS INTO FAR SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE EMBEDDED IN THE ACTIVITY AS WELL. WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN ACTIVITY FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SHOWERS/TSTORMS REDEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO BUILD AFTER EARLY DAY ACTIVITY. //DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * MEDIUM IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH THIS EVENING...HIGH EARLY TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. * LOW IN THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE AIRSPACE TODAY AND TONIGHT. MEDIUM FOR SUNDAY. && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1206 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 UPDATE... THINKING ON POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION HAS CHANGED LITTLE FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SURFACE WARM FRONT CURRENTLY LIES DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND OHIO...WITH ELEVATED PORTIONS OF THE FRONT EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN PER MODEL DATA AND 12Z RAOBS. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVER WESTERN MICHIGAN AS THETA-E SURGE HAS COMMENCED...BUT THEY ARE HAVING TROUBLE MAINTAINING THEMSELVES AS THEY MOVE WEST AND INTO THE MORE STABLE AIRMASS PROVIDED BY RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THIS RIDGE HAS ALSO ALLOWED A NICE INVERSION TO STRENGTHEN...KEEPING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRATUS DECK LOCKED INTO PLACE. AS THE UPPER WAVE OVER MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST...IT WILL PULL THE WARM FRONT FURTHER NORTH INTO MICHIGAN. LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THE SURFACE FRONT MAY LIFT TO OR JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO BORDER BY LATE AFTERNOON...PROVIDING A BETTER CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE OHIO BORDER. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS SOME CLEARING SOUTH OF THE FRONT...AND LATEST MODEL DATA DOES SHOW SOME OF THIS DRIER AIR MAKING INROADS INTO LOWER MICHIGAN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE RAP AND 6Z NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR JXN BUILD TALL/SKINNY CAPE VALUES UP TO ALMOST 1000 J/KG AFTER 20/21Z THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE 12Z NAM MAINTAINS A SLIGHT CAP. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDER GOING...WITH BEST POTENTIAL NEAR THE OHIO BORDER DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. WATCHING SEVERAL SMALLER SHORTWAVES ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NE/MO TO SEE IF THEY WILL TRACK INTO THE AREA. INCREASED MOISTURE AND THESE WAVES MAY NECESSITATE AN INCREASE IN POPS FOR TONIGHT...AND THEN HAVE FURTHER IMPLICATIONS ON OUR CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TOMORROW. PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 322 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT THE STALLED FRONT THAT HAS BEEN PLAGUING THE REGION WILL RESIDE JUST SOUTH OF THE MI BORDER TO START THE DAY AS RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT BUILD OVER THE AREA. THE SFC RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES KEEPING COOL EASTERLY FLOW BENEATH A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE BEING TRAPPED WITH THE INVERSION...EXPECT THE CURRENT STRATUS DECK TO HOLD...WHILE SLOWLY LIFTING...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. REMNANTS OF A MID LEVEL WAVE RIPPLING ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH HAS KEPT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...ISOLATED TSTORMS...GOING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF M59. THIS ACTIVITY WILL FADE AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD AND THE FILAMENT OF VORTICITY HELPING TO FUEL THESE SHOWERS LIFTS FURTHER NORTH DEEPER INTO AN UNFAVORABLE AIRMASS. EYES THEN TURN TO THE NEXT WAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR OVER NE/IA AS OF 07Z THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE WILL LIFT NE AROUND THE RIDGE THROUGH WI/MN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS ARE ADVERTISING AN AREA OF SHOWERS TRACKING THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMPACT VORT MAX. QUESTION IS HOW FAR S AND E WILL THESE SHOWERS/TSTORMS REACH? WILL BE LEANING TOWARD THE DRIER HIRES HRRR AND ARW AS THEY ARE BOTH LOCKED ON WITH CURRENT ACTIVITY. WILL KEEP A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA WITH DRY CONDITIONS HOLDING OVER THE EASTERN CWA. THIS WILL MAINLY COVER ANY STRAY SHOWERS THAT CAN SURVIVE INTO SE MI ALONG THE VORTICITY FILAMENT LIFTING NORTHWARD. AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST OVERNIGHT...THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE AS THE TRAILING TROUGH AND VORTICITY AXIS FOLDS INTO THE AREA. THE AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE STABLE AS THE FRONT HANGS TO OUR SOUTH. SO WE WILL BE MAINLY DEALING WITH SHOWERS TODAY...BUT A CHANCE OF THUNDER DOES REMAIN AS SOME INSTABILITY DRIFTS NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN MI THROUGH THE DAY. BIGGER THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING FOR ANY AREAS THAT CAN GET A COUPLE STORMS TO PASS OVER...ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT HAVE HAD A FEW ROUNDS OF STORMS ALREADY OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. PWATS WILL HOVER AT OR ABOVE 1.5 INCHES THROUGH THE DAY...INCREASING OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LONG TERM... ACTIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST AS MAIN BAND OF UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES SETS UP OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. THIS WILL LEAD TO A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS...WITH VARIOUS SHORTWAVES RIPPLING ALONG THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE AND FORCING ROUNDS OF CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING FORECAST. THE MEAN FRONTAL POSITION WILL SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT RETURN NORTH THROUGH THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST AND HELPS ESTABLISHED THE AFOREMENTIONED ZONAL FLOW PATTERN...EXPECT THE FRONT TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION DURING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE THIS WILL NOT ELIMINATE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WHOLE AREA THOSE DAYS...IT WILL TEND TO MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER MORE NOTABLE STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL CANADA. WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN LARGELY CONFINED TO CANADA...IT WILL ALLOW FOR HEIGHTS FALLS THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS...WITH HEIGHTS RISING DOWNSTREAM OF THIS AREA OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL HELP BRING THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA AND LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN AGAIN BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. DURING THIS TIME FRAME...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AOA AVERAGE. WITH AT LEAST PORTION OF THE AREA WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...EXPECT 80S TO BE COMMON FOR HIGHS BOTH DAYS WITH LOWS WITHIN THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70. TEMPERATURES EDGE BACK INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S ON AVERAGE NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH FOR A TIME...BUT BUILD BACK TO AROUND 80 LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SAID BOUNDARY SHIFTS BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA. MARINE... SURFACE RIDGING WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS AND LOWER WAVE HEIGHTS TODAY BEFORE AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALLOWS FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY LOOKS TO REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH JUST A FEW STORMS EXPECTED OVER LAKE ST CLAIR AND WESTERN LAKE ERIE. A WARM FRONT LIFTING BACK THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL THEN BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...WITH THE THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS ON SUNDAY. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LAKE HURON...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ361>363- 441>443-462>464. LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE. MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE. && $$ AVIATION.....HLO UPDATE.......HLO SHORT TERM...DRK LONG TERM....DG MARINE.......DG YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1206 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 .UPDATE... THINKING ON POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION HAS CHANGED LITTLE FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SURFACE WARM FRONT CURRENTLY LIES DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND OHIO...WITH ELEVATED PORTIONS OF THE FRONT EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN PER MODEL DATA AND 12Z RAOBS. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVER WESTERN MICHIGAN AS THETA-E SURGE HAS COMMENCED...BUT THEY ARE HAVING TROUBLE MAINTAINING THEMSELVES AS THEY MOVE WEST AND INTO THE MORE STABLE AIRMASS PROVIDED BY RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THIS RIDGE HAS ALSO ALLOWED A NICE INVERSION TO STRENGTHEN...KEEPING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRATUS DECK LOCKED INTO PLACE. AS THE UPPER WAVE OVER MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST...IT WILL PULL THE WARM FRONT FURTHER NORTH INTO MICHIGAN. LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THE SURFACE FRONT MAY LIFT TO OR JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO BORDER BY LATE AFTERNOON...PROVIDING A BETTER CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE OHIO BORDER. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS SOME CLEARING SOUTH OF THE FRONT...AND LATEST MODEL DATA DOES SHOW SOME OF THIS DRIER AIR MAKING INROADS INTO LOWER MICHIGAN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE RAP AND 6Z NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR JXN BUILD TALL/SKINNY CAPE VALUES UP TO ALMOST 1000 J/KG AFTER 20/21Z THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE 12Z NAM MAINTAINS A SLIGHT CAP. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDER GOING...WITH BEST POTENTIAL NEAR THE OHIO BORDER DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. WATCHING SEVERAL SMALLER SHORTWAVES ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NE/MO TO SEE IF THEY WILL TRACK INTO THE AREA. INCREASED MOISTURE AND THESE WAVES MAY NECESSITATE AN INCREASE IN POPS FOR TONIGHT...AND THEN HAVE FURTHER IMPLICATIONS ON OUR CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TOMORROW. && .AVIATION...ISSUED 557 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AS A LOW STRATUS DECK WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT TODAY...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE THIS EVENING...THEN MORE STRATUS TONIGHT. SOME SPOTTY IFR CIGS MAY BE PRESENT AT 12Z BUT SHOULD NOT LAST LONG. ALL THIS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS LOCKED UNDER A STRONG INVERSION. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BUT A LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH LAKE MI INTO NORTHERN MI WILL PRODUCE INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS LATE THIS EVENING. AMPLE MOISTURE REMAINING WITH THE MAIN WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL AGAIN BRING LOW STRATUS BACK TO THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH SUNDAY MORNING. FOR DTW...MVFR CIGS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A STRONG INVERSION WILL TAKE TIME TO TRY TO MIX OUT. SHOWERS LOOK TO RETURN LATE THIS EVENING WITH A LOW CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDER EMBEDDED WITHIN THEM. LOW STRATUS LOOKS TO RETURN TONIGHT BEFORE THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH EARLY SUNDAY BRINGING IMPROVING CIGS. //DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * HIGH IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...MEDIUM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THEN AGAIN TONIGHT. * LOW IN THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE AIRSPACE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 322 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT THE STALLED FRONT THAT HAS BEEN PLAGUING THE REGION WILL RESIDE JUST SOUTH OF THE MI BORDER TO START THE DAY AS RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT BUILD OVER THE AREA. THE SFC RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES KEEPING COOL EASTERLY FLOW BENEATH A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE BEING TRAPPED WITH THE INVERSION...EXPECT THE CURRENT STRATUS DECK TO HOLD...WHILE SLOWLY LIFTING...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. REMNANTS OF A MID LEVEL WAVE RIPPLING ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH HAS KEPT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...ISOLATED TSTORMS...GOING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF M59. THIS ACTIVITY WILL FADE AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD AND THE FILAMENT OF VORTICITY HELPING TO FUEL THESE SHOWERS LIFTS FURTHER NORTH DEEPER INTO AN UNFAVORABLE AIRMASS. EYES THEN TURN TO THE NEXT WAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR OVER NE/IA AS OF 07Z THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE WILL LIFT NE AROUND THE RIDGE THROUGH WI/MN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS ARE ADVERTISING AN AREA OF SHOWERS TRACKING THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMPACT VORT MAX. QUESTION IS HOW FAR S AND E WILL THESE SHOWERS/TSTORMS REACH? WILL BE LEANING TOWARD THE DRIER HIRES HRRR AND ARW AS THEY ARE BOTH LOCKED ON WITH CURRENT ACTIVITY. WILL KEEP A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA WITH DRY CONDITIONS HOLDING OVER THE EASTERN CWA. THIS WILL MAINLY COVER ANY STRAY SHOWERS THAT CAN SURVIVE INTO SE MI ALONG THE VORTICITY FILAMENT LIFTING NORTHWARD. AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST OVERNIGHT...THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE AS THE TRAILING TROUGH AND VORTICITY AXIS FOLDS INTO THE AREA. THE AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE STABLE AS THE FRONT HANGS TO OUR SOUTH. SO WE WILL BE MAINLY DEALING WITH SHOWERS TODAY...BUT A CHANCE OF THUNDER DOES REMAIN AS SOME INSTABILITY DRIFTS NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN MI THROUGH THE DAY. BIGGER THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING FOR ANY AREAS THAT CAN GET A COUPLE STORMS TO PASS OVER...ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT HAVE HAD A FEW ROUNDS OF STORMS ALREADY OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. PWATS WILL HOVER AT OR ABOVE 1.5 INCHES THROUGH THE DAY...INCREASING OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LONG TERM... ACTIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST AS MAIN BAND OF UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES SETS UP OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. THIS WILL LEAD TO A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS...WITH VARIOUS SHORTWAVES RIPPLING ALONG THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE AND FORCING ROUNDS OF CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING FORECAST. THE MEAN FRONTAL POSITION WILL SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT RETURN NORTH THROUGH THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST AND HELPS ESTABLISHED THE AFOREMENTIONED ZONAL FLOW PATTERN...EXPECT THE FRONT TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION DURING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE THIS WILL NOT ELIMINATE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WHOLE AREA THOSE DAYS...IT WILL TEND TO MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER MORE NOTABLE STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL CANADA. WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN LARGELY CONFINED TO CANADA...IT WILL ALLOW FOR HEIGHTS FALLS THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS...WITH HEIGHTS RISING DOWNSTREAM OF THIS AREA OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL HELP BRING THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA AND LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN AGAIN BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. DURING THIS TIME FRAME...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AOA AVERAGE. WITH AT LEAST PORTION OF THE AREA WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...EXPECT 80S TO BE COMMON FOR HIGHS BOTH DAYS WITH LOWS WITHIN THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70. TEMPERATURES EDGE BACK INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S ON AVERAGE NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH FOR A TIME...BUT BUILD BACK TO AROUND 80 LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SAID BOUNDARY SHIFTS BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA. MARINE... SURFACE RIDGING WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS AND LOWER WAVE HEIGHTS TODAY BEFORE AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALLOWS FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY LOOKS TO REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH JUST A FEW STORMS EXPECTED OVER LAKE ST CLAIR AND WESTERN LAKE ERIE. A WARM FRONT LIFTING BACK THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL THEN BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...WITH THE THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS ON SUNDAY. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LAKE HURON...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ361>363- 441>443-462>464. LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE. MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE.......HLO AVIATION.....DRK SHORT TERM...DRK LONG TERM....DG MARINE.......DG YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
405 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015 .DISCUSSION... THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS IS OBVIOUSLY TOO FAR EAST THIS AFTERNOON TO LIMIT OUR LOCAL RAIN CHANCES. CURRENTLY GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS RIDGE IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE FOR MID JUNE AND IS WORKING WITH AMBIENT DIURNAL INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND FLOW LEVELS ARE SUCH THAT SOME STORMS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS WITH A LIMITED POTENTIAL IN MOST AREAS OF WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 OR 60 MPH. THIS THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MENTIONED IN THE HWO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON BUT MAY BE MOST FOCUSED OVER NORTHERN ZONES AND IN THE ARKLAMISS DELTA WHERE THE AIR MASS HAS NOT BEEN WORKED OVER ALREADY THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER THIS EVENING EXPECT OVERNIGHT CONVECTION TO MAINLY BE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION WITH LOW CLOUDS BUILDING TOWARD DAWN. THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION FOR TOMORROW LOOKS SIMILAR TO TODAY EXCEPT FOR THE FACT THAT THE SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE WILL BE TRYING TO EXERT ITS INFLUENCE A LITTLE MORE OVER OUR REGION. EVEN SO...MODEL CONSENSUS STILL EXPECTS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO OUR REGION TO BE RELATIVELY STOUT...AND THIS ALONE SHOULD ENSURE A FAIR AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS CONSIDERING A RELATIVE LACK OF THERMAL CAPPING. TODAY CONVECTION HAS BEEN PRETTY WIDESPREAD IN A HOMOGENEOUS FASHION BUT FOR TOMORROW THE MORE NUMEROUS STORMS WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED WEST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR. LIKE TODAY...SOME GUSTY STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT TOMORROW BUT IT WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW TO MAKE AN INFORMED DECISION ON WHETHER LOW LEVEL SHEAR / INSTABILITY COMBOS WILL BE ENOUGH TO GET MORE THAN A STRAY SEVERE STORM. ERGO...THE HWO FOR TOMORROW LEFT CLEAR FOR NOW. GOING INTO NEXT WORK WEEK ATTENTION WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED ON THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WHERE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE NOW IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TO TAKE SHAPE AND ADVANCE TOWARD THE SE TX COAST. MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL MOST LIKELY BE FOCUSED WEST OF OUR REGION AND THEREFORE SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES SHOULD BECOME MORE AND MORE CONFINED TO WESTERN ZONES AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES NOSING IN FROM THE EAST. OF COURSE HEAT WILL BUILD A LITTLE (ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN HALF OF ZONES) IF THE AFTERNOON SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY DOES DECREASE. IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT A FEW MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL DISTURBANCE COMING INLAND INTO SE TX AND THEN CURVING AROUND THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE....AND THEN REMAINING AN INTACT ENTITY CROSSING EAST THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH. THIS SCENARIO COULD RAMP BACK UP RAIN CHANCES FOR PORTIONS OF OUR REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH IT IS A LITTLE EARLY TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN EVENTUAL OUTCOMES. /BB/ && .AVIATION...AFTER STARTING OFF THE MORNING WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO STRATUS...START OF DAYTIME MIXING HAS ALLOWED CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR OR VFR MOST LOCATIONS. MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY TSRA WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE DUE TO VERY HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS. HRRR RUNS IMPLY FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AS MODERATELY STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW ALLOWS STORMS TO PROPAGATE AND HAVE FAIRLY HIGH COVERAGE. HENCE HAVE AT LEAST TEMPO TSRA MOST SITES AND WILL AMD AS NEEDED TO SHOW CATEGORICAL IMPACTS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. EXPECT REPEAT OF WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT DUE TO STRATUS WITH FAIRLY SIMILAR SETUP TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED THIS MORNING. /AEG/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... JACKSON 71 89 72 90 / 27 37 13 28 MERIDIAN 69 89 69 91 / 19 22 10 16 VICKSBURG 71 89 72 90 / 34 51 18 42 HATTIESBURG 72 90 71 90 / 28 43 12 37 NATCHEZ 72 86 73 88 / 36 62 19 47 GREENVILLE 72 89 72 90 / 35 51 27 31 GREENWOOD 72 90 71 91 / 29 33 19 18 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...NONE. LA...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ BB/AEG/17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
303 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 .SYNOPSIS... CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO SUNSHINE TODAY. HOWEVER...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE WAFFLING ITS WAY BACK INTO OUR VICINITY SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. DURING THAT TIME PERIOD...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH A MOIST AIR MASS...WILL CAUSE PERIODIC SHOWERS AND CHANCES OF THUNDER. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... 10 AM UPDATE... MINOR CHANGES. CLOUDS ERODING FROM THE NE BUT STILL CLOUDY FROM STEUBEN TO PIKE. DRY DAY WITH NO POPS UNTIL LATE IN THE FAR WEST. HIGH TEMPS LOOK GOOD AND ON TRACK. 655 AM UPDATE... MADE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH ADVECTED IN SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN EXPECTED ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NY. ALSO...USING 925MB RH FIELD OF RUC MODEL AS A PROXY FOR THE POST- FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS...I HELD IN CLOUDS /AND EVEN SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE INITIALLY/ A BIT LONGER THIS MORNING BEFORE SUNSHINE OVERSPREADS THE AREA LATER TODAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... PRIOR BAND OF SHWRS ALG SWD MOVG COLD FRNT HAS ALL BUT DSIPTD EARLY THIS MRNG. THIS SHOULD LEAVE US WITH RAIN- FREE WX TDY...AS THE PREV MENTIONED FRNTL ZN SETTLES DOWN INTO SRN OH/PA...AND A SFC RIDGE EXPANDS SWD OUT OF ONT/QUE. SAT/SFC OBS SHOW PLENTY OF POST-FRNTL LOW CLDS OVER THE RGN ATTM. WE EXPECT THESE CLDS TO THIN OUT RATHER QUICKLY BY MID-MRNG (BETWEEN 7 AND 10 AM)...AS THE SHALLOW MOIST LYR MIXES OUT/GETS SQUASHED BY LARGE-SCALE SINKING MOTION. THUS...EARLY CLDS SHOULD GIVE TO WAY TO PTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. AS SOMEWHAT COOLER DRIER AIR BUILDS DOWN FROM THE N TDY...CONDS WILL BE MUCH LESS MUGGY...WITH AFTN HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CNY...TO THE LOW-MID 80S ACRS NE PA. TNT...THE SAME FRNTL BNDRY WILL BEGIN TO CREEP BACK NWD/NEWD AS A WARM FRNT LATE (AFTER MIDNIGHT). THUS...CLR TO PTLY CLDY SKIES EARLY IN THE EVE...WILL GIVE WAY TO THICKENING CLDS THEREAFTER FROM SW TO NE. WE ALSO CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SCHC OF SHWRS RETURNING TO OUR FAR WRN ZNS (FINGER LAKES/CNTRL SRN TIER AREAS)...SPCLY FROM LATE EVE ONWARD. LOWS OVERNIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S-LWR 60S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... 4 AM UPDATE... THOUGH SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EXTENDED IN FROM QUEBEC INITIALLY SUNDAY MORNING...MOST MODELS NOW HAVE LATCHED ONTO THE TREND OF BRINGING WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDER BACK INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY WESTERN TO CENTRAL ZONES. AS WEST-TO-EAST INSTABILITY AND TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SETS UP WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME SHEAR ALONG THE LIFTING WARM FRONT ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY. SPC DAY 2 AND DAY 3 OUTLOOKS ACTUALLY INCLUDE OUR AREA IN MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH FOCUS TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST. WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AGAIN TO AROUND 2 INCHES...WE ARE ALSO CONCERNED FOR POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUS LOCALIZED FLOODING WHERE TRAINING OCCURS. WILL BE INCLUDING THESE ISSUES IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. COMPLICATING FACTOR THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH BE THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WHICH MAY PUT A LIMIT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SOUNDINGS ALSO TAKE ON A MOIST ADIABATIC LOOK AT TIMES...WHICH WOULD NOT PROMOTE EVAPORATIONAL COOLING OF DOWNDRAFTS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... 300 PM EDT UPDATE... AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TUES NIGHT INTO WED MORNING WE WILL BE ON THE OUTER EDGE OF THE UPPR LVL RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN QUIET AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE DAY... BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE UPPR LVL PATTERN WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION INTO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN WILL ALLOW MULT WAVES TO SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOTS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN GUIDANCE HAS A HARD TIME HANDLING AND ARE SHOWING MANY DISCREPANCIES IN SOLUTIONS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING WED MORNING THRU FRIDAY EVENING. KEPT POPS LOW AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF EACH WAVE PASSING THROUGH. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 10 AM UPDATE... IFR IS GONE BUT MVFR MAY LINGER AN HOUR LONGER THAN FORECAST. ADJUSTED TAFS TO REMOVE IFR AND LINGER MVFR CIGS. 12Z SAT UPDATE... LOW CLDS WILL HANG ON FOR A WHILE THROUGH MID- LATE MRNG (14-16Z)...WITH CIG BASES GENERALLY LIFTING FROM IFR/LWR END MVFR TO HIGHER END MVFR/VFR. THESE LWR CLDS SHOULD SCTR OUT BY MIDDAY. FROM THIS AFTN THROUGH TNT...VFR IS EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGN OVERNIGHT...THEY SHOULD GENERALLY BE OF THE MID AND HIGH-LVL VARIETY. N TO NW SFC WINDS 5-10 KT TDY...WILL BECOME LGT AND VRBL TNT (AOB 5 KT). .OUTLOOK... SUN...MOSTLY VFR...BUT SOME RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL DURG THE AFTN...AS SCTD SHWRS/TSTMS RE-DVLP. SUN NGT-TUE...POSSIBLE SHRA-TSRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. WED...VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MDP NEAR TERM...MLJ/MDP/TAC SHORT TERM...MDP LONG TERM...KAH AVIATION...MLJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
234 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015 THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE LATEST CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE HRRR STILL DEVELOPS CONVECTION BY 3 PM. FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COLD FRONT. A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH HAIL/WIND...BUT THE LACK OF STRONGER DEEP LAYERED SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE. THERE WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR STRONGER/PERSISTENT STORMS GIVEN PWATS CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES. THE CONVECTION SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH ANY SEVERE THREAT GONE BY 6Z WITH A FAIRLY WEAK LLJ. ON SUNDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD AID CONVECTION MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY AND A BIT MORE SHEAR THAN TODAY...AND THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THE SOUTH. ON SUNDAY NIGHT...THE CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTH WITH STABLE/COOLER AIR BUILDING IN. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015 ON MONDAY...EXPECT A DRY AND COOL DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70. FOR TUE...RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN IN THE WEST AND SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WILL MOVE IN BY AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS AFFECTING THE WEST...BUT DEEPER INSTABILITY/MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR AREA. FOR WED THROUGH SAT...THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH A ZONAL BECOMING NW FLOW PATTER ALOFT AND A CENTRAL PLAINS LOW GENERATING SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA TUE NIGHT INTO WED. MODELS DIVERGE BEYOND THIS SYSTEM...WITH GFS SHOWING A MORE AMPLIFIED SW RIDGE PROVIDING A BREAK IN ACTIVITY ON THU. GFS THEN SHOWS A TRANSITION TO SW FLOW ALOFT AND MORE ACTIVITY DURING THE END OF THE WEEK. OVERALL MAIN THEME IS AN ACTIVE WEEK WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF BREAKS DUE TO MODEL INCONSISTENCIES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015 THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN THIS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS A FRONT APPROACHES EASTERN ND FROM THE WEST. WILL PUT A MENTION OF TSRA IN DVL FOR THE MID AFTN...BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE RRV AND EXPECTING MORE ISOLD STORMS IN THE VALLEY...THUS WILL GO WITH VCTS FOR GFK AND FAR. CONFIDENCE FURTHER LOWERS AS FRONT MOVES INTO MN...PETERING OUT ACTIVITY BEFORE REACHING BJI. WILL KEEP VCTS IN FOR TVF. WINDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT TO A NORTHERLY COMPONENT FOR TOMORROW. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DK LONG TERM...DK/SPEICHER AVIATION...SPEICHER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1223 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015 NO MAJOR UPDATES WITH THE EARLY AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE ALONG TO AHEAD OF SOUTHEASTERLY MOVING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED FROM SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA NORTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN SOURIS RIVER BASIN EAST OF MINOT. LATEST HRRR INDICATES CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN NOW AND 20Z ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GRIDS REFLECT THIS WELL. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1009 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015 TEMPERED DOWN POPS FOR THIS MORNING WITH ONLY A FEW LIGHT RETURNS ALONG TO SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. INCREASING CHANCES AND COVERAGE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHEAST COUPLED WITH INCREASING DIURNAL INSTABILITY. 0-6KM WIND SHEAR OF 30-40KTS ALONG TO BEHIND THE COLD FROPA WILL SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. TIMING APPEARS ANYWHERE FROM 19-21Z FOR INITIATION BASED ON HIGH RES MODELS. OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANGES FROM THE INHERITED FORECAST. UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015 NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 11 UTC...AS THE POTENTIAL AND PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED IN THE 08-10 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS...AND PERHAPS JUST SLIGHTLY WEST IN THE 06 UTC NAM COMPARED TO ITS 00 UTC RUN...ALL COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS AND ONGOING FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS INVOLVE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TODAY AND TONIGHT AND SEVERE POTENTIAL AS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE STATE. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHWEST ND...STRETCHING FROM SOUTH OF WILLISTON TO JUST NORTH OF MINOT. THE STRONGEST STORMS OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN CLOSE TO THE FRONT...MAINLY OVER/NEAR MCKENZIE COUNTY ALTHOUGH THEY HAVE NOT REACHED SEVERE CRITERIA. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST ACROSS THE STATE TODAY AND SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S CONTRIBUTING TO SFC BASED CAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30KT TO 50KT RANGE BY 00Z SUN PER GFS. SPC HAS KEPT THIS REGION IN MARGINAL RISK AREA FOR SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY FOR LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS...WITH THE LIMITING FACTOR BEING LACK OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH ALONG THE STALLED FRONT COINCIDENT WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 90KT JET MOVING ACROSS ND AND SOUTHERN CANADA. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015 THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM. THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY PROPAGATING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE GENERALLY CONFINED TO SOUTH OF US HIGHWAY 2...AND GREATEST ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WHERE RESIDUAL MID TO UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST. GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED SUNDAY. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY...BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE PROPAGATES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...YIELDING THE NEXT FAVORABLE TIMEFRAME FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. GIVEN THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS...BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S ARE FAVORED FOR THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015 VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALTHOUGH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR ANY LOCATIONS DIRECTLY UNDER THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE STATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AND SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING...HAVE KEPT VCTS IN MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCLUDING KBIS AND KJMS. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...NH SHORT TERM...JNS LONG TERM...AYD AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
444 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG AREA OF DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO LATE NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... AT 440 PM EDT...RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AND OTHER CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS HAVE INDICATED FAIRLY DECENT SCATTERED CONVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA IN THE NC PIEDMONT THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...SHRA HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP AND HAVE DISSIPATED FAIRLY QUICKLY IN THE WARM PROFILES ALOFT. WILL BACK OFF POPS A TOUCH THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BUT STILL KEEP A SCATTERED COVERAGE MAXIMUM IN THE VICINITY OF KCLT THROUGH 01Z. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH NOW CENTERED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS SUPPORTING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS INDICATE THAT MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE KEPT SOMEWHAT IN CHECK AND CLOSE TO CLIMO BY PERSISTENT LIGHT DWONSLOPE FLOW. NEVERTHELESS...TONIGHT WILL BE RATHER WARM AND MUGGY WITH LOWS A COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE CLIMO...WHICH MEANS TEMPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 70. SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE A HOT DAY WITH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN ON SATURDAY. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED HIGHER FOR TEMPS ON SUNDAY WITH MUCH OF THE AREA OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS FORECAST TO REACH THE MIDDLE 90S...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO REACH AROUND 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE LOWER PIEDMOPNT OF THE UPSTATE. CONVECTIVE CHANCES ON SUNDAY WILL BE LOWER AS THE ATMOSPHERE WARMS ALOFT. LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING EFFECTS AND AREAS WITH WEAK UPSLOPE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 210 PM SATURDAY...AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE SERN CONUS THRU THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE ASSOCIATED RIDGING DOES FLATTEN ON TUE AS SHORTWAVES MOVE THRU THE ZONAL FLOW TO OUR NORTH. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP ANY STRONG FORCING FEATURES OUT OF OUR AREA. THAT SAID...THE FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE COULD ALLOW THE MID ATLANTIC MCS TRACK TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD TOWARD OUR AREA. AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS THRU THE PERIOD WITH LEE TROUGHING FARTHER EAST TOWARD THE COASTAL PLAIN THAN WEST TOWARD THE PIEDMONT WHERE IT NORMALLY RESIDES. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEST TO SW THRU THE PERIOD WITH ANY GULF INFLOW WEST OF THE AREA. EVEN THO THE MCS TRACK WILL BE NORTH OF OUR AREA...THE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE TRACK COULD ALLOW OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO SLIDE INTO THE NW PIEDMONT. STILL...THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED DIURNAL CONVECTION WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE ACROSS THE MTNS WHERE INSTABILITY AND WLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO BETTER FORCING...AND ISOLATED COVERAGE ELSEWHERE WHERE INSTABILITY IS LESS AND FLOW WILL BE MORE DOWNSLOPE. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL STOP SHORT OF 105 AS SFC DEW POINTS DO NOT GET ESPECIALLY HIGH WITH THE GENERAL WLY FLOW. THAT SAID...EVEN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN DEW POINTS WOULD BRING MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH OF I-85 INTO THE 105 RANGE. NOT MUCH RELIEF WILL BE SEEN AT NITE WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING FROM AROUND 70 INTO THE LOWER 70S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AT 155 PM EDT SATURDAY...GOOD CONFIDENCE IS HAD IN THE EXT RANGE WITH THE OP MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW SUPPORT FOR STACKED RIDGING ACROSS THE SE CONUS. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES HOWEVER...CHIEFLY THE 12Z GFS BRINGING IN A TROPICAL INDUCED S/W THU TOWARD THE WRN NC MTNS. THE GEFS ENS MEMBERS SHOW LITTLE SPREAD WITH THIS FEATURE AND IT CERTAINLY IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE LATEST NHC TWO. RIGHT NOW THO...THE RIDGE LOOKS TO BE TOO STRONG FOR MUCH A SENSIBLE WX IMPACT. THE GOING FCST GRIDS WERE NOT CHANGED SIGFNTLY...WITH THE BIGGEST CHANGE ADDING MORE OF A DIURNAL POP TREND GIVEN THE WEAK DYNAMICS AND LIMITED MOISTURE FLUX. THE ECMWF AND THE GFS BOTH DEVELOP A BROAD LEE SIDE TROF WED/THU BUT AGAIN...AVAILABLE MOISTURE SHOULD BE TOO LOW FOR A SIGFNT POP CHANGE. BASICALLY HAVE KEPT POPS CLOSE TO CLIMO WITH SOME INCREASE ACROSS THE SRN/ERN ZONES AS THE BH RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SLIGHTLY FRI AND SAT. THIS LATE PERIOD IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN WRT THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DEPENDING ON A POSSIBLE FRONT/TROP PHASING. THUS...THESE POPS COULD BE BUMPED UP OR DOWN MODESTLY IN SUBSEQUENT FCSTS. MAX AND MIN TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BY A COUPLE CATS OR SO WITH A GENERAL LOWERING THROUGH SAT. NO PROBLEMS SHOULD BE HAD WITH HI/S AS TD/S REMAIN SEASONAL IN THIS SET UP. && .AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AT KCLT...WILL ADJUST KCLT FORECAST TO VCSH WITH THE 21Z UPDATE DESPITE THE INSISTENT HRRR THAT KEEPS HIGH SCATTERED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IN THE AREA THROUGH 01Z. THE HRRR FORECAST HAS NOT REALLY PANNED OUT SO FAR AS THE WARM TEMPS ALOFT ARE SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...EXCEPT SCT VFR CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. A VSBY RESTRICTION MAY BE POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY IF THE AIRFIELD GETS RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...THE MESO MODELS HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING SCT TSRA WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LEE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM CLT W THROUGH GMU. HOWEVER...THIS APPEARS OVERDONE AND WILL BE PULLED WITH AN UPDATE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS. THE EXCEPTION IS KAVL WHERE EARLY MORNING FOG IS A GOOD BET. LATEST GUIDANCE CAPS THE RESTRICTION AT MVFR AND HAVE GONE THAT WAY. OUTLOOK...DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION IN A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTN SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE...ESP OVER THE MTNS. MORNING RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG AND/OR STRATUS MAY ALSO OCCUR...PARTICULARLY WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL IN TSRA THE PREVIOUS DAY. CONFIDENCE TABLE... 20-02Z 02-08Z 08-14Z 14-18Z KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 91% HIGH 100% KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE) WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SBK NEAR TERM...HG/LG SHORT TERM...RWH LONG TERM...SBK AVIATION...HG/LG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
145 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG AREA OF DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO LATE NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... AT 140 PM...CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK WITH HOT TEMPS. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW SCT CONVECTIVE CELLS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP TO THE NE OF CLT. LATEST CAMS HAVE BECOME BETTER ALIGNED AND DEVELOP SCT CONVECTION SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG LEE TROUGH INTO THE GREENVILLE AREA. CURRENT POPS HANDLE THAT WELL. MOUNTAIN POPS MAY BE ON THE HIGH SIDE IF CAMS ARE CORRECT. AS OF 1140 AM...TEMPS A LITTLE AHEAD OF PACE IN GRIDS SO ADJUSTED TRENDS AND BUMPED MAX TEMPS UPWARD A DEGREE OR TWO. LOTS OF CU DEVELOPING PER VSBL SATELLITE WITH CAPES OUTSIDE OF MOUNTAISN PER SPC MESOAANL AROUND 1500J. 14Z HRRR STILL TARGETING EASTERN AREAS FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...SO EARLIER UPDATE FOR SCT POPS IN THAT AREA STILL LOOKS GOOD. AS OF 0940 AM...CAM`S HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN FIRING UP SCT CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN UPSTATE OF SC AND THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF NC. HENCE...WILL BUMP UP THE POPS INTO THE SCT CATEGORY THERE. IT IS INTERESTING THAT THE CAM`S DO NOT SHOW MUCH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD SUPPORT THE CONTINUATION OF SCT TYPE POPS THERE AS WELL. BUMPED MAX TEMPS UP A COUPLE DEGREES INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S OVER THE SOUTHERN UPSTATE IN DEFERENCE TO HIGHER MOS NUMBERS THERE AND TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH NEIGHBORS. AS OF 640 AM...A MUGGY JUNE MORNING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING... WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR SOME MTN VALLEY FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY AND ALL AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE A RAPID WARM-UP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH LATE MORNING TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR 80 IN THE MTN VALLEYS...TO NEAR 90 ACROSS THE LOWEST PIEDMONT ELEVATIONS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS DURING THE NEAR TERM...WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS SUPPORTING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH A DEEP LAYER DURING THE PERIOD. WHILE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT ABUNDANT AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...PERSISTENT WESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL SERVE TO KEEP DEWPOINTS FAIRLY CLOSE TO CLIMO. IN OTHER WORDS...AS THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO HEAT UP UNDER RISING HEIGHTS...THE LOWER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE LESS BUOYANT THAN IN RECENT DAYS...WHILE WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MODEST-AT-BEST LEVELS OF CAPE. THE UPSHOT IS COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS...SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY LESS THAN IN RECENT DAYS...WITH 20-40 POPS FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...THE HIGHEST BEING NEAR THE TENN BORDER IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK WESTERLY UPSLOPE COMPONENT. IN FACT...WITH TERRAIN AFFECTS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY INITIATION POINT OF SHOWERS...AND MEAN FLOW EXPECTED TO TAKE CELLS TOWARD THE E/NE...MOST OF THE NON-MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF THE UPSTATE AND NE GEORGIA ARE UNLIKELY TO SEE EVEN ISOLATED COVERAGE. REALLY THE MAIN STORY FOR THE DAY WILL BE THE HEAT...WITH FEWER SHOWERS AND CLOUDS AND RISING THICKNESSES EXPECTED TO SUPPORT MAXES FROM 90-93 IN MOST AREAS OUTSIDE THE MTNS...WHICH WOULD MAKE THIS THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE SEASON SO FAR. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS EVENING...GIVING WAY TO A RATHER WARM/MUGGY NIGHT...WITH MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AT 2 AM EDT SATURDAY...ON SUNDAY MORNING AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE SC COAST...EXTENDING WEST TO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...AND NORTH TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE RIDGE CENTER RETROGRADED TO THE LOWER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY BY MONDAY...WHILE NEARLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW REMAINS OVER THE OH AND POTOMAC VALLEYS. THE RIDGE BECOMES MORE BROAD ON MONDAY NIGHT...EXTENDING FROM THE CAROLINAS TO EAST TX...WITH ITS CENTER OVER GA. AT THE SURFACE...SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY...WITH LEE TROUGHING OVER THE PIEDMONT...AND GULF INFLOW LIMITED TO THE WESTERN GULF STATES. THIS PATTERN BASICALLY REMAINS IN PLACE INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GULF INFLOW...WHICH PUSHES EVEN FARTHER WEST INTO TX AS RIDGING EXPANDS WESTWARD. AS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE FLATTENS...THE MODELS SHOW MOISTURE ROUNDING THE RIDGE REACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL BE RATHER LIMITED UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. STEERING FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE QUITE WEEK...BUT HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL BE TEMPERED BY LIMITED LIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 7 TO 9 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AT 2 AM EDT SATURDAY...ON TUESDAY MORNING A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST...WHILE WEAK TROUGHING EXISTS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN PERSISTS INTO WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY WEAK UPPER TROUGHING PROGRESSES ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO THE EAST COAST. BY FRIDAY THE WEAKENING TROUGH REACHES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WHILE THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE GULF STREAM. UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS NEARLY ZONAL THROUGH ALL OF THIS...AND MAINLY TO OUR NORTH. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GULF STATES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE OH RIVER VALLEY. THIS FRONT STALLS TO OUR NORTH ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... WHILE THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE RIDGE MIGRATES TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...ALLOWING GULF MOISTURE TO SPREAD UP THE MS RIVER VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE BEST MOISTURE WILL RIDE AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO OUR WEST AND NORTH...ELEVATED MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT BETWEEN 800 AND 700 MB. CAPE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW NO DISTINCT WARM NOSE ALOFT...AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED. STEERING FLOW AND SHEAR WILL BE RATHER WEAK EARLY ON...BUT BOTH PARAMETERS IMPROVE LATER IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AS MUCH AS 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE...WITH THE HEAT INDEX APPROACHING 100 DEGREES SOME AFTERNOONS. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AT KCLT...MAIN CONCERN IS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. ALL THE MESO MODELS HAVE BECOME BETTER ALIGNED AND FORECAST AT LEAST SCT TSRA DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE LEE TROUGH. HENCE...HAVE CARRIED A TEMPO TSRA FROM 19Z-22Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. A VSBY RESTRICTION MAY BE POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY IF AIRFIELD GETS APPRECIABLE RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...MESO MODELS SUGGEST THAT SCT TSRA WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LEE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM CLT W THROUGH GMU. HENCE...HAVE A VCTS AT BOTH GSP AND GMU. ALSO INLCUDED A VCTS AT KAVL THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THAT IS LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH CAMS DEVELOPING MOST TSRA TO THE EAST OF KAVL. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS. THE EXCEPTION IS KAVL WHERE EARLY MORNING FOG IS A GOOD BET. LATEST GUIDANCE CAPS THE RESTRICTION AT MVFR AND HAVE GONE THAT WAY. OUTLOOK...DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION IN A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTN SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE...ESP OVER THE MTNS. MORNING RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG AND/OR STRATUS MAY ALSO OCCUR...PARTICULARLY WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL IN TSRA THE PREVIOUS DAY. CONFIDENCE TABLE... 17-23Z 23-05Z 05-11Z 11-12Z KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE) WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JAT NEAR TERM...LG SHORT TERM...JAT LONG TERM...JAT AVIATION...LG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
230 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015 .DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON STILL INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND A SUBTLE BUT WEAK SHORTWAVE NEAR THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST. REGIONAL WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH THE BEST COVERAGE SOUTH OF I-20 AND ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. AS OF 2 PM CDT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ARE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER 80S DUE TO RAIN COOLED AIR. LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR INDICATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARM AGAIN WITH MOST READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY. NONETHELESS...A CONTINUATION OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WITH THE BEST CHANCES OCCURRING MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS. LATEST MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL DRIFT NORTHWEST TOWARDS TEXAS BY MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AND MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS TOWARDS LATE NEXT WEEK. SOME MODEL RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY EXISTS BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF WITH THE HANDLING OF THESE TROPICAL REMNANTS AND HAVE BLENDED TOWARDS LOWER CHANCE POPS FOR NOW UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. BEST WILL CONTINUE TO BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS EACH DAY COINCIDENT WITH DAYTIME HEATING. AFTERNOON HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. CJC && .AVIATION... 12Z TAFS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON...WEAKENING OVERNIGHT...BUT AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY...GENERALLY 10-15KT TODAY AND TOMORROW...5-10KT OVERNIGHT. WILL CARRY VCSH/VCTS AT MEM AND JBR THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE...WITH NO WEATHER AT TUP AND MKL OVERNIGHT...AND VCSH RETURNING AGAIN TOMORROW. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. MO...NONE. MS...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
452 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015 .MESOSCALE UPDATE... 21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS ANOMALOUSLY MOIST SURFACE DEW POINTS ADVECTING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 60 DEW POINTS WERE PRESENT AND AN INFERRED THETA-E RIDGE EXTENDED THROUGH LUBBOCK WEST- NORTHWESTWARD TO AROUND CLOVIS AND IS QUITE APPARENT IN THE WEST TEXAS MESONET OBSERVATIONS. LEE SURFACE TROUGHING WAS NOT OVERLY SHARP/INTENSE ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND THE FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. A DISTINCT MCV WAS SEEN CLEARLY IN VISIBLE IMAGERY LOOP NEAR DALHART AND THIS FEATURE IS ENHANCING SURFACE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA...STILL SLIGHTLY REMOVED FROM THE RICHEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. ASIDE FROM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...THE MOST EXTENSIVE CU DEVELOPMENT SO FAR ON THE PLAINS TO THE EAST HAS BEEN NEAR THE WESTERN EXTENT OF AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL THETA-E AXIS IN EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO JUST WEST OF CLOVIS. FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE CU WAS GROWING/DEEPENING IN A ZONE OF MORE NOTABLE SURFACE CONVERGENCE FROM NEAR HEREFORD TO NEAR AMARILLO WITH A SECONDARY AREA JUST UPSTREAM FROM THE MCV ACROSS THE CENTRAL OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THESE TWO AREAS WILL PROBABLY BE THE FIRST LOCATIONS TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. SPC RAP MESOANALYSIS AND LAPS SHOWS MODERATE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH HIGHEST VALUES WHERE DIABATIC HEATING HAS OCCURRED FOR THE LONGEST DURATION IN THE ABSENCE OF CLOUDS (SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA). MEAN FLOW ALOFT REMAINS QUITE WEAK BUT THE COMBINATION OF ABOUT 20-25 KNOTS 500 MB FLOW ATOP SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR PERSISTENT MULTI-CELLS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS THIS EVENING. ALL MODES OF SEVERE ARE POSSIBLE WITH HAIL PROBABLY BEING THE MOST DOMINATE EARLY ON FOLLOWED BY MORE OF A WIND THREAT LATER AS COLD POOL GENERATION OCCURS AND STORMS ORGANIZE/ACCELERATE EASTWARD. AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MENTIONS...A LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT MAY MATERIALIZE. STORM MOTIONS MAY INITIALLY BE QUITE SLOW AND WITH BLENDED TPW VALUES AROUND +2SD ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID JUNE AND SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING SEEMS PROBABLE...ESPECIALLY OVER SECTIONS OF THE AREA THAT HAVE SATURATED GROUNDS FROM RECENT RAINS. AMARILLO HAS RECEIVED AROUND 2 INCHES IN THE PAST 48 HOURS. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE PANHANDLE EAST OF CLARENDON NEAR WELLINGTON WHICH HAS SEEN LOCALLY 3+ INCHES SINCE EARLY YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS AN INCREASE IN PWAT LATER THIS EVENING. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS THROUGHOUT THE EVENING ON BEHAVIOR OF INITIAL CONVECTION PRECEDING THE COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT SHOULD EVOLVE OVER NEW MEXICO FROM ONGOING HIGH TERRAIN CONVECTION AND MOVE THROUGH. IF COLD POOL GENERATION IS SUFFICIENT THESE STORMS SHOULD PASS THROUGH MORE QUICKLY HOPEFULLY MINIMIZING A MORE SUBSTANTIAL FLOOD THREAT. BRB && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015/ SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)... EXPECT STORMS ORGANIZING IN MOUNTAINS OF NM WILL TRAVEL EAST ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE LATE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS WITH ACTIVITY LINGERING BEYOND MIDNIGHT ESP ACROSS ERN PANHANDLES. MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG WILL COMBINE WITH BULK SHEAR EXCEEDING 30 AND 0-3 KM HELICITY VALUES PERHAPS INCREASING TO NEAR 250 (HIGHER IN NAM12 PROGS AS MODEST LLJ KICKS IN) WILL PROVIDE A RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS AS WELL AS HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SW ZONES. HAVE THESE THREATS INDICATED IN GRIDS AND ALSO BUMPED POPS UP TO 80 ACROSS MUCH OF THE CEN AND ERN HALF GIVEN ADDITIONAL AID OF LARGE SCALE LIFT AND UPR DIFFLUENCE EAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. WAS RIDING THE FENCE WRT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SRN ZONES...BUT HELD OFF FOR NOW GIVEN INDICATIONS THE STORMS MAY BE MOVING AT A GOOD CLIP. THAT SAID...A QUICK 1/2 TO 1" OF RAIN AND ISOLD AMOUNTS TO AROUND 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE AND WILL CERTAINLY PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING. AS RAINFALL ADDS UP...WE CERTAINLY WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER WATCHES FOR EVENTS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... A MID-UPR LEVEL TROUGH WHICH SHOWS UP MUCH SHARPER AT H25 AND H5 WILL DEEPEN AND SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS WITH MED RANGE MODELS GENERALLY KEEPING THE FEATURE JUST EAST ACROSS ERN NM THROUGH MID WEEK ALTHOUGH IT DOES WEAKEN QUITE A BUT BY WED. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE HIGH RAIN CHANCES WITH SCT TO NUMEROUS POPS THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE FINALLY DECREASING TUES AND ESPECIALLY WED. POSITION OF THIS FEATURE IS MOST FAVORABLE THROUGH MONDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH DEEP MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CONCERNS FOR FLOODING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE ALTHOUGH LACK OF A LARGE SCALE BOUNDARY MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO SAY WHERE GREATEST FOCUS WILL BE ON ANY GIVEN DAY. EXPECT SOME DRYING AROUND MID WEEK HOWEVER THE IS SOME INDICATION A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CEN PLAINS COULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR AN MCS WHICH COULD MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WED NIGHT. THIS IS CURRENTLY NOT SHOWN IN CURRENT GRIDS AND FORECAST PRODUCTS GIVEN HIGH UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT. HIGH TEMPS REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAINFALL BUT SHOULD BE CLOSER TO NORMAL BY MID WEEK. MODELS DEVIATE QUITE A BIT BY NEXT WEEKEND AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN LOW LAST FEW PERIODS. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. OK...NONE. && $$ 88/03/17/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
310 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015 .TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. VORTICITY ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH EVENING. CONTINUOUS 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND 925-700MB BAROCLINIC ZONES HAVE PRIMED SOUTHERN WI FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN. THE SURFACE WARM FRONT HAS BEEN CREEPING FARTHER NORTH ALL DAY AND IS CLOSE TO THE WI/IL BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. IT MAY LIFT INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WI THIS EVENING WITH THE SHORTWAVE... BUT THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS WILL KEEP IT FAIRLY STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY. SURFACE-BASED AND MIXED LAYER CAPE ARE ON THE RISE IN SOUTHEAST WI THIS AFTERNOON... INLAND FROM THE LAKESHORE. THE MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER FAR SOUTHEAST WI AROUND 22Z. THIS AREA WILL BE ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CAPE GRADIENT... SO THAT WOULD SUGGEST THE STRONGER CONVECTION WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AS SPC SUGGESTS WITH THEIR SLIGHT RISK AREA. THE BUFKIT RAP PROFILE JUST UPSTREAM FOR RFD SHOWS TALL SKINNY CAPE AND MODERATE SHEAR. WE CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AROUND 1.7 WHICH IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY HIGH. THEREFORE... FORECASTING AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH IN SOUTHEAST WI BUT LOCALLY HIGHER WITHIN ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE THE REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING DUE TO A VERY SLOW-MOVING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND PERSISTENT RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET OVER SOUTHERN WI. THE WEAK LAPSE RATES SUGGEST JUST A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER. THE NAM SEEMS OVERDONE WITH THE CAPE ON SUNDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING A DIMINISHING TREND IN PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS. IT APPEARS THAT THE WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT EAST OVER LAKE MICHIGAN EARLIER THAN EXPECTED AND THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION/SHOWERS. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES... SPC SHOULD BE ABLE TO REMOVE SOUTHEAST WI FROM THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE. .SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. THIS WEAK FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE WITH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN REMAINING IN A VERY MOIST AIRMASS. PRECIP CHANCES HAVE BEEN LOWERED SUNDAY EVENING AS ANY FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE LACKING. WILL INCREASE POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. CAPE VALUES MIGHT BE PUSHING 800-1000J/KG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20-30KTS. NOTHING IMPRESSIVE...BUT WE MIGHT GET A COUPLE STRONG STORMS OUT OF IT. .MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. THIS LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD AS WE GET WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. BUT...THE FLOW IS STILL WEAK AND THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS HANGING AROUND. WILL HANG ONTO SOME PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT IN CASE THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT HANGS UP A BIT LONGER...DRY TUESDAY AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR STORMS ARRIVING TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST. .WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. THE GFS AND THE ECMWF BOTH SHOW A SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THIS PERIOD. STABILITY PARAMETERS ARE NOTHING SPECIAL...BUT WE COULD STILL GET SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY...TAPERING OFF WED NIGHT. .THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THERE IS LOTS OF MODEL VARIABILITY FROM RUN TO RUN AND THAT/S CERTAINLY THE CASE FOR THIS PERIOD. BOTH THE EC AND GFS ARE TRENDING DRY FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. WILL HANG ONTO SOME POPS FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. BUT...THE FORECAST MAY IMPROVE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION/00Z TAFS/... EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO SPREAD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST OFF AND ON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN SOUTHEAST WI... INCLUDING UES/MKE/ENW... MAINLY FROM 22Z TO 02Z THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR AREAS OF FOG NEAR THE LAKESHORE NORTH OF MILWAUKEE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A WARM FRONT PERSIST. MVFR VSBY IS LIKELY LATER TONIGHT... POSSIBLY LOWER NEAR THE LAKESHORE AREAS. && .MARINE... DENSE FOG IS HANGING AROUND THE NEARSHORE AREAS FROM MILWAUKEE AND NORTH AS VERY HUMID AIR FLOWS OVER THE COLD WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW KEEPS IT LOCKED NEAR THE SHORELINE. EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ643>645. && $$ TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...DAVIS