Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/12/15

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TUCSON AZ

915 PM MST TUE JUN 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT UNDER A PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS BEING DETECTED BY
DOPPLER RADAR AS OF 9 PM. ALTHOUGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE RIDICULOUSLY
HIGH FOR EARLY JUNE...WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE
UPPER 60S...DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS ALREADY STARTED TO INFILTRATE THE
AREA FROM THE SW. LATEST GPS PW READING FROM UOFA HAD VALUE AROUND
1.50"....DOWN FROM THE RECORD JUNE VALUE EARLIER TODAY OF 1.72".

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWED AN UPPER LOW WEST OF FRISCO.
MODELS MOVE THIS FEATURE ESE TOWARD CA CST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SINCE THERE WILL BE LINGERING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR MODEL KEEPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
AREAS NORTH OF TUCSON. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST EARLIER
THIS EVENING.

.AVIATION...VALID THROUGH 11/04Z. SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 6-9K FT
AGL...ISOLD -SHRA. SURFACE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS
THRU 10/17Z. AFT 10/17Z... WLY/NWLY SURFACE WIND AT 12-18 KTS AND
GUSTS TO 25-28 KTS WITH THE STRONGEST SURFACE WIND EAST OF KTUS IN
THE VICINITY OF KFHU... KALK...KDUG AND KSAD. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF TUCSON
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE DRYING
OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE WILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A MORE
PRONOUNCED DRYING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...WITH ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONFINED TO THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS. SOME BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF TUCSON. LIGHTER WINDS ARE THEN
FORECAST OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

.CLIMATE...THE AVERAGE DAILY DEWPOINT VALUE AT THE TUCSON
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT TODAY WILL BE CLOSE TO A JUNE RECORD WHEN THE
DAY IS OVER. DAILY AVERAGE DEWPOINT DATA DATES BACK TO 1946.

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN DIEGO CA

152 PM PDT WED JUN 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CENTERED NEAR THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...HIGH DESERTS...AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE INLAND EMPIRE. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN ON THURSDAY
WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND PATCHY MORNING FOG ALONG THE COASTAL SLOPES.
ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE AREA WILL BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BRINGING WEST NORTHWEST FLOW WITH DRIER AIR...WARMER
WEATHER...AND A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER.

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AT 1 PM PDT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE
THE REGION STEMMING FROM A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH...CENTERED NEAR THE
THE SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. PER VISIBLE SATELLITE...GROWING CU
WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE SPINE OF THE RIVERSIDE COUNTY AND SAN
BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS. SHOWERS HAD ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS NEAR JOHNSON VALLEY.

SCATTERED TO OVERCAST STRATUS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND HAVE UPDATED SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS. AS
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL ADVECT OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. THE 10/1200Z GFS INDICATES A VORT MAX PUSHING
THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...CAPE BETWEEN 100-200
J/KG...LIFTED INDEX BETWEEN -1 AND -3 DEGREES C OVER THE SAN
BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS...RIVERSIDE MOUNTAINS...AND THE UPPER DESERTS.
WITH THESE CONDITIONS...COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD DESTABILIZE ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS
CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR AND NAM4 ARE SHOWING THE
ELSINORE CONVERGENCE ZONE DEVELOPING A SHOWER OR TWO SO HAVE ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP TO THIS AREA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IS ALSO
CONFIRMING THIS CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY. OF THE STORMS THAT DO
FORM....BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WOULD BE THE
MAIN CONCERN. AS 500 MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO LOWER...TODAYS HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES F COOLER IN COMPARISON
TO YESTERDAY.

ON THURSDAY...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION WITH
THE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD OUT OF CALIFORNIA. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND
OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TODAY. ON FRIDAY...THE 10/1200Z GFS...
ECMWF...AND NAM ALL INDICATE AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING
SOUTH AND MOVING OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. LIFT FROM THIS WAVE
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MODERATE AMOUNTS OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD JUSTIFY CONTINUING THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND UPPER DESERTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE OF PRECIP DEVELOPING IS MODERATE.

THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...SQUEEZED BETWEEN A TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND SUB
TROPICAL HIGH TO THE SOUTH. AS 500 MB HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXPECT ONSHORE FLOW...A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND...AND A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER.

.AVIATION...
102020Z...THROUGH 11/0300 UTC...OVC-BKN STRATUS WITH HIGHLY VARYING
BASES AS LOW AS 1100 FT MSL NEAR THE COAST AND AS HIGH AS 2800 FT
MSL IN THE INLAND EMPIRE...AND TOPS OF 2000-3000 FT MSL...WILL
CONTINUE. ALSO...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING IN THE SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS WITH CB TOPS 20000-25000 FT MSL. OTHERWISE...SCT CLOUDS IN
THE 7000-10000 FT MSL LAYER CONTINUING OVER THE MTNS...WITH FEW-SCT
CLOUDS IN THIS LAYER ELSEWHERE. 11/0300-1500 UTC...WIDESPREAD
STRATUS DEVELOPING OVER THE REST OF THE COAST AND VALLEY
SECTIONS...WITH BASES 800-1500 FT MSL AND TOPS 2000-3000 FT MSL.
SOME MTN OBSCURATION OF COASTAL SLOPES POSSIBLE. UNRESTRICTED VIS
AND DIMINISHING CLOUDS IN THE 7000-10000 FT MSL LAYER FOR THE MTNS
AND DESERTS DURING THAT TIME-PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW-TO-
MODERATE.

AFTER 11/0000 UTC...WEST WINDS 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS 30-35 KT OVER MTN
RIDGES...THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES/CANYONS...ALONG DESERT SLOPES AND
INTO ADJACENT DESERT AREAS WILL CREATE MOD-STG UDDFS/LLWS OVER AND
EAST OF THE MTNS.

.MARINE...
120 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED.

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

PUBLIC...JT/JJT
AVIATION/MARINE...HARRISON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SACRAMENTO CA

347 AM PDT WED JUN 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER INTERIOR NORCAL
THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. WARMER
TEMPERATURES RETURN THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DRY
WEATHER.

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED OVERNIGHT, BUT THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
DIED DOWN BY MIDNIGHT. ON RADAR IMAGERY, MOST OF THE SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING BETWEEN BLUE CANYON IN THE SIERRA ACROSS THE VALLEY AND
INTO THE NORTH BAY COUNTIES. 24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE VALLEY
WERE GENERALLY JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS EXCEPT IN THE NORTHERN
SACRAMENTO VALLEY WHERE SOME OBSERVATIONS NEAR REDDING AND RED
BLUFF MEASURED 0.25 TO 0.35" DUE TO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. PEAK
AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS RANGED BETWEEN 0.5" TO OVER AN INCH.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORCAL THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
THE HRRR INDICATES MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
SIERRA WITH SHOWERS DRIFTING WESTWARD INTO THE VALLEY AND TOWARDS
THE BAY AREA. REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MORNING
HOURS SINCE THERE HASN`T BEEN ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUSTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. THE NAM ALSO SHOWS A NOTABLE DECREASE IN
CAPE OVER OUR CWA FOR TODAY. HAVE KEPT MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, BUT FEEL THAT MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE SHOWERS. NAM AND GFS HAVE THE LOW
MOVING EASTWARD BY TONIGHT SO NORCAL WILL BECOME DRIER TONIGHT AS
SHOWERS DIMINISH...ESPECIALLY AFTER 5 PM.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, A COOLING TREND HAS BEEN PERSISTENT WITH THE
HOURLY OBSERVATIONS OVERNIGHT THANKS TO YESTERDAY`S STRONG PUSH
FROM THE DELTA BREEZE. THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY SHOULD
FINALLY GET SOME RELIEF FROM TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT TODAY. FORECASTED
MAX TEMPS IN THE VALLEY WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 80S WITH SOME
LOCATIONS FLIRTING AROUND 90 IN SHASTA & TEHAMA COUNTIES. THE NAM DID
GREAT FORECASTING THE ONSHORE FLOW YESTERDAY SHOWING NEARLY A 5
MB ONSHORE GRADIENT BETWEEN SAN FRANCISCO AND SACRAMENTO. THAT
PUSH WON`T BE AS STRONG THIS AFTERNOON (CLOSER TO 3 MB). HOWEVER,
THE COOLER AIRMASS ALOFT FROM THE LOW COUPLED WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP THINGS COOLER TODAY.

UNFORTUNATELY, TODAY WILL BE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE HEAT. BY
THURSDAY, THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF OUR CWA AND HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND CA. THIS
MEANS TEMPERATURES WILL YO-YO BACK UP INTO THE 90S AND LOW 100S
FOR THE VALLEY. FRIDAY IS WHEN THE HEAT REALLY CRANKS UP AGAIN WITH
HIGHS AROUND 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL AND WIDESPREAD TRIPLE
DIGIT HEAT RETURNS TO THE VALLEY. TEMPS FOR THE WESTERN SIERRA
SLOPES WILL RANGE MID 70S (NEAR SIERRA CREST) TO THE MID 90S
(FOOTHILLS) AND THE DELTA WILL RANGE IN THE 80S TO MID 90S.

HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY NUDGING DAYTIME HIGHS
COOLER BY A COUPLE TO 5 DEGREES...STILL AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. JBB

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WEAKENS SUNDAY AS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A
BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST DIPS SOUTH INTO THE REGION.
THIS UPPER AIR PATTERN TRANSLATES TO STRONGER ONSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW, OR DELTA BREEZE. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SUNDAY
WITH THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE COAST.

SUCCESSIVE WAVES PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC,
DEEPENING AND RETROGRADING THE PARENT LOW/TROUGH NEAR 135W
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED IN THIS FAIRLY
STABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER, RIDGE WINDS AND THE DELTA
BREEZE MAY INCREASE. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY EQUALS
NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. JCLAPP
&&

.AVIATION...

LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND IFR IN THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WITH MAINLY VFR IN CENTRAL
VALLEY. CONVECTIVE THREAT GREATLY DIMINISHES TONIGHT. JCLAPP
&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

752 PM MDT THU JUN 11 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 747 PM MDT THU JUN 11 2015

UPDATE FOR EXPIRATION FO THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH...AND TO
INCORPORATE LATEST OBS DATA AND SATELLITE TRENDS. LATEST HRRR IS
SHOWING A BREAK IN THE PCPN LATER TONIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA...THEN ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN LATE TOMORROW MORNING.
MOORE

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM MDT THU JUN 11 2015

...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO...

UPPER TROF OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS COLORADO
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. WATCHING LIGHTNING BLOSSOMING ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS THE LA GARITAS AND SAN JUANS
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF INTO SW CO.

MEANWHILE...SURFACE FRONT LIES ACROSS THE AKRNASAS RIVER VALLEY IN
EASTERN CO...WITH DEW POINTS BEHIND IT IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S...THOUGH DEW POINTS FARTHER SOUTH ARE NOT ALL THAT MUCH
LOWER...STILL IN THE LOWER 50S. AS THE FRONT DROPS
SOUTHWARD...INCREASING SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD PUSH PRECIP WATERS
OVER AN INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...WHICH IS ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE AS FAR AS CLIMO GOES. FRONT HAS ALREADY BEEN THE
INITIATOR OF CONVECTION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH CAPES
RUNNING 1500+ J/KG...AND DEEP LAYER SHEARS RUNNING AROUND 40-50
KTS...INGREDIENTS CERTAINLY IN PLACE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY STORM THREATS...BUT
INITIAL INTENSE UPDRAFTS MAY BE ABLE TO SPIN UP A BRIEF TORNADO OR
TWO...ESPECIALLY ALONG ANY BOUNDARIES.

MEANWHILE...THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO
CARRY THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH PRECIP WATERS RUNNING
AROUND 160% OF NORMAL. HOWEVER...SUSPECT THAT INTENSE RAINFALL
RATES WILL BE A TAD SPOTTIER IN NATURE VS THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS
AND PLAINS. WITH AREA RIVERS ALREADY RUNNING HIGH DUE TO A DELAYED
SNOW PACK MELT OFF...ANY RAINFALL COULD EXACERBATE SWOLLEN CREEKS
AND STREAMS RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING. BASED ON NEW INFORMATION
CONCERNING THE SOUTH ARKANSAS RIVER BETWEEN PONCHA AND SALIDA
RUNNING HIGH...DECIDED TO ADD THE UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY TO THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY TRHOUGH FRIDAY.

TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONGEAL INTO A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
ACROSS EASTERN CO...THOUGH MODELS VARY ON HOW FAR NORTH OR SOUTH THE
CORE OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE AFTER 06Z. GIVEN THE FRONTAL
POSITION...THINK THE FARTHER SOUTH SOLN OF THE NAM MAY BE MORE
CORRECT VS THE GFS. FOLLOWING THE 4KM NAM12...2ND ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS TRIGGERED BY THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE I-
25 CORRIDOR BY 9 PM...THEN OUT ONTO THE PLAINS. SO BURN SCARS MAY
BE UNDER THE GUN A LITTLE LONGER THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. AS
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...EVENT MAY PROGRESS TOWARDS A FLASH FLOOD AND
EVENTUALLY A RIVER FLOOD EVENT...DEPENDING ON WHERE THE HEAVIER RAIN
FALLS AND HOW QUICKLY IT ROUTES INTO AREA RIVERS. GROUND IS PRETTY
SATURATED...AND RIVER IS ALREADY AT OR NEAR FLOOD STAGE AT PLACES
CANON CITY...AVONDALE...LA JUNTA. SO HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE WRONG
SPOTS COULD LEAD EXACERBATE HIGH WATER CONDITIONS.

MODELS STILL DIFFER ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS ALONG THE LOWER EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE SE MTS/PLAINS OVERNIGHT. UPSLOPE SURE BODES FOR
KEEPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HUNCH IS THAT NAM QPF IS OVERDONE IN WESTERN PUEBLO/EASTERN FREMONT
COUNTIES...LIKELY SUFFERING FROM SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. BUT
GIVEN ALL THE PARAMETERS IN PLACE...WILL NEED TO BE ON GUARD FOR
FLASH FLOODING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

FRIDAY SHOULD START OUT FAIRLY WET. THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE AND SHEAR ARE MUCH LESS...AND ACTIVITY MAY BE
MORE TIED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND THE SOUTHERN BORDER AREAS. BUT
STEERING FLOW ALOFT LOOKS WEAKER TOO...SO CAN`T ARGUE WITH THE
DURATION OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 7 PM FRIDAY AT THIS
POINT...THOUGH EASTERN PLAINS MAY BE ABLE TO BE TAKEN DOWN SOONER.
-KT

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM MDT THU JUN 11 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...LATEST MODELS CONTINUE GENERALLY WEAK WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE STATE WITH A WEAK BAGGY TROUGH
SLOWLY TRANSLATING ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA WHICH WILL LEAD TO DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS SEEM TO BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK ISSUES...AND WOULD EXPECT THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING STORMS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...MOST NUMEROUS OVER AND NEAR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH GOOD MOISTURE IN PLACE AND EXPECTED SLOW
MOVEMENT OF STORMS...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WILL REMAIN AN ISSUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS LOOKS TO SEND A FRONT ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH RESURGENCE OF MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW LEADING TO A POSSIBLE UPTICK IN STORMS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INCREASED WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
HELP TO DRY OUT THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA...THOUGH MAY ALSO LEAD TO STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO.

TUESDAY-THURSDAY...A DRYING TREND COULD BE IN THE OFFING AS
MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST A SLOW DRYING OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE LEADING TO MORE ISOLATED...DIURNALLY AND TERRAIN DRIVEN
CONVECTION.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 343 PM MDT THU JUN 11 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
+TSRA. COULD SEE SOME LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...
PARTICULARLY FOR KCOS AND KPUB. ACTIVITY SHOULD CONGEAL INTO A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS WITH UPSLOPE FLOW
RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CIGS FOR KCOS AND KPUB INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. POCKETS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CIGS MAY STAY MVFR THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY AT BOTH KCOS AND KPUB. MAIN WINDOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT
KALS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CIGS/VIS SHOULD STAY
PRIMARILY VFR. -KT

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR COZ058>089-093>099.

UPDATE...MOORE
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...KT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO

1141 AM MDT WED JUN 10 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT WED JUN 10 2015

SEVERAL SHOWERS ONGOING THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EMBEDDED WITHIN. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NOW APPROACHING
1.1 INCHES...THE RECORD FOR THIS DATE...RAINFALL RATES THIS
MORNING OF 0.3" IN 10 TO 20 MINUTES THIS MORNING WERE NOT
SURPRISING. PW`S ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY. QUITE
A BIT OF CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING...WITH NO LARGE BREAKS UPSTREAM
LOOKING TO AFFECT US. HAVE DECREASED MAX TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY BY
A COUPLE DEGREES. HOWEVER WHAT WARMING WE WILL HAVE...AND THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE NOW OVER WESTERN
COLORADO...STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE OUT ON THE EASTERN PLAINS. THESE
STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE A LOT OF PRECIPITATION IN A SHORT
TIME EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE MOVING QUICK. ISOLATED AREAS MAY
EXPERIENCE SOME FLOODING FROM THESE STORMS...MAINLY NEAR AND SOUTH
OF I70...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR ANY SORT OF FLOOD WATCH.
HOWEVER...TODAY`S PRECIPITATION AND THEN TOMORROWS EXPECTED COLD
FRONT AND UPSLOPE WEATHER PATTERN SET UP WILL INCREASE THE FLOOD
THREAT OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND MOST OF NORTHEASTERN COLORADO
PLAINS. HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TOMORROW WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
UNDER STRONGER STORMS AS WELL AS UPSLOPE ENHANCED AREAS LIKE THE
FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE. THIS WATCH WILL GO THROUGH FRIDAY
NOON.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT WED JUN 10 2015

AIRMASS WILL BE VERY MOIST TODAY AS THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE
BLANCA MOVE OVER COLORADO. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB
ABOVE AN INCH TODAY...RECORD LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE
RAP IS SHOWING 1.25 INCHES WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE JUNE RECORD OF
1.29. THIS MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
COLORADO AND THE FOUR CORNERS AREA ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES UNSTABLE.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER
UTAH. MODELS INDICATE THE WAVE WILL LIFT EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. THE BEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL BE OVER
NORTHERN PARTS OF COLORADO. EXPECT THIS TO TRIGGER SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. BEST
CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE
STATE WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECT TO REACH THE LOWER 80S. THIS
WILL RESULT IN CAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. FOR THE FRONT RANGE AND
NEAR BY PLAINS...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF
HEATING. IF TEMPERATURES CAN REACH THE UPPER 70S WOULD EXPECT
CAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. MODELS ARE ALL OVER ON THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY TODAY. THE GFS AND NAM SHOW CAPES AROUND 500 J/KG
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE RAP HAS CAPES REACHING 2000
J/KG IN THE DENVER AREA. WOULD EXPECT CAPES SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN.
THOUGH IF CLOUD COVER REMAINS THICK ALL DAY CAPES COULD BE ON THE
LOWER END AND THE AIRMASS COULD BE SOMEWHAT CAPPED. LOW LEVEL
SHEAR WILL BE WEAK...SO THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE VERY LOW.

STORMS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE WAVE SHIFTS EAST OF THE
AREA. FROM MID EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT...SUBSIDENCE WILL BE OVER
THE AREA BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE. AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MOIST WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND AN INCH. WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS AROUND.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT WED JUN 10 2015

THURSDAY...THERE WILL BE A WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE PRESENT IN THE
MORNING AS ONE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST OVER THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AND THE NEXT SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT BASIN APPROACHES FM
THE SOUTHWEST. THE MDLS BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE FRONT RANGE IN
THE MORNING...15-18Z...WITH NELY UPSLOPE WINDS DEVELOPING BY LATE
AFTN BLO 700 MB. THE AMS WILL BE VERY MOIST WITH PW VALUES IN
EXCESS OF ONE INCH. FORECAST CAPES ON THE SOUNDINGS INCREASE BY
THE AFTN...THE GFS BUFFER SOUNDINGS YIELD VALUES OF 500-700 J/KG
BY 21Z WHILE THE NAM12 SOUNDINGS GENERATE AROUND 1100 J/KG. SOME
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AS WELL...BEST CHC OF SEVERE WOULD STILL APPEAR
TO BE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...THE MDLS GENERATE PRETTY GENEROUS QPF AMOUNTS ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE/PALMER DIVIDE. CERTAINLY ENOUGH TO ELEVATE THE
CONCERNS FOR FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING. THE SOUNDINGS GENERATE THE
DEEPEST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FM 06Z-18Z THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTN/THURSDAY
NIGHT...MAY TRANSITION TO MORE OF A STEADY LGT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL BY FRIDAY MORNING. LIKELY POPS LOOK LIKE A GOOD
BET...ESPECIALLY IN AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS. THE UPPER TROUGH
APPEARS TO STALL OVER COLORADO AT THAT TIME...SLOWLY MAKING ITS
WAY EAST INTO KANSAS SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...MAY BUMP THE
POPS UP ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL. OVER THE WEEKEND...IT MAY
NOT BE AS WET BUT STILL UNSETTLED...WITH SOME MOISTURE AND A WEAK
TROUGH SHIFTING ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO. BY TUESDAY...FINALLY
APPEAR TO BE A DRIER WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...SLGT CHC OF AFTN/EVNG THUNDERSTORMS WILL SUFFICE FOR THAT
TIME.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT WED JUN 10 2015

THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...FROM 18Z TO
00Z. WILL HAVE A TEMPO FOR TSRA IN THE TAFS FOR THIS. VERY HEAVY
RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS WITH THE STORMS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY WITH
PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED TONIGHT. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 6000 FEET. SOUTHERLY WINDS
TO 20 KNOTS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 15Z. EXPECT CEILINGS
TO BECOME MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR TOMORROW AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT...AROUND 15Z.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT WED JUN 10 2015

ANY STORM THAT FORMS TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN DUE TO THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS. AN INCH IN 30 MINUTES OR LESS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONG STORMS. THE STORMS SHOULD BE
MOVING 15 TO 20 MPH...SO NOT EXPECTING STATIONARY STORMS. THE
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OFF TO THE EAST.

A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE STATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE UPSLOPE
FLOW THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PLAINS AND INTO THE FOOTHILLS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1 TO 2
INCHES...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS UNDER STRONGER STORMS AND OVER THE
UPSLOPE ENHANCED FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE. SATURATED SOILS WILL
INHIBIT MUCH SOAKING AND COULD CAUSE FLOODING ISSUES QUICKLY. THIS
WILL CAUSE RIVERS AND STREAM LEVELS TO RISE AND THE MAIN RIVERS
DOWNSTREAM...NAMELY THE SOUTH PLATTE...RESULTING IN ANOTHER SURGE
OF WATER TO PUSH DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND. ROCK/MUDSLIDES WL BE AN
ISSUE AS WELL IN THE FOOTHILLS. THEREFORE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY NOON.

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR COZ035-036-038>047-049.

UPDATE...KRIEDERMAN
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN
HYDROLOGY...KRIEDERMAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO

343 AM MDT WED JUN 10 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT WED JUN 10 2015

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT WED JUN 10 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT WED JUN 10 2015

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT WED JUN 10 2015

A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE STATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE UPSLOPE
FLOW THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PLAINS AND INTO THE FOOTHILLS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1 TO 2
INCHES...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE UPSLOPE ENHANCED FOOTHILLS
AND PALMER DIVIDE. SATURATED SOILS WILL INHIBIT MUCH SOAKING AND
COULD CAUSE FLOODING ISSUES QUICKLY. THIS WILL CAUSE RIVERS AND
STREAM LEVELS TO RISE AND THE MAIN RIVERS DOWNSTREAM...NAMELY THE
SOUTH PLATTE...RESULTING IN ANOTHER SURGE OF WATER TO PUSH DOWN
OVER THE WEEKEND. ROCK/MUDSLIDES WL BE AN ISSUE AS WELL IN THE
FOOTHILLS.

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...MEIER
HYDROLOGY...MEIER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

1140 PM MDT TUE JUN 9 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1110 PM MDT TUE JUN 9 2015

UPDATED POP FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AND WED MORNING BASED
ON THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR AND NAM12.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM MDT TUE JUN 9 2015

...REMNANTS OF BLANCA BEGINNING TO FILTER INTO THE REGION...

THE CONVECTIVE CAP OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO IS GETTING A FEW HOLES IN
IT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW WEAK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING TO POP THROUGH. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...MOST NUMEROUS OVER AND NEAR THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS.

OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE CORE OF BLANCA`S MOISTURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE. THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
HEADED OUR WAY. THIS MORNING...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE
150 PERCENT OF NORMAL AT FLAGSTAFF...AND 226 PERCENT OF NORMAL AT
ALBUQUERQUE. THESE TYPES OF PERCENTAGES WILL LIKELY BE OVER OUR
AREA BY TOMORROW MORNING AS BLANCA MOVES ACROSS. THIS MEANS
MORE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING IF OVER THE
WRONG BURN SCAR...URBAN AREA OR SWOLLEN CREEK.

THE OTHER THREAT THAT IS RETURNING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. NOT ONLY WILL
THERE BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH BLANCA MOVING
THROUGH...BUT THERE WILL ALSO INSTABILITY...AND INCREASING AMOUNTS
OF SHEAR AS YOU NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER. AFTER STARTING OUT FROM THE
SOUTHWEST EARLY IN THE DAY...SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST NEAR THE BORDER BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS
MEANS ANY STORMS MOVING EAST WILL BE WORKING INTO BETTER AND BETTER
INFLOW...AND LIKELY DEEPER MOISTURE. SO...ANOTHER BUSY DAY ON
TAP...IN MULTIPLE WAYS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM MDT TUE JUN 9 2015

NOT MANY LONGER TERM ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED AS UNSETTLED METEOROLOGICAL
PATTERN SHOULD BE NOTED DURING THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM.

PRIMARY METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES CONTINUE TO BE POPS(INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL AS STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS AT TIMES) AND TEMPERATURES.

RECENT LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...PV ANALYSIS AND
FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES AND
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGES AT TIMES TO PRODUCE AN
ACTIVE METEOROLOGICAL PATTERN DURING THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER
TERM(ESPECIALLY FROM LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT).

AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF WIDESPREAD
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN(AND ASSOCIATED FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD THREAT) SHOULD
NOTED FROM LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. IF THE MOIST
METEOROLOGICAL TRENDS CONTINUE...HYDRO HIGHLIGHTS MAY BECOME
NECESSARY IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO AS THE POTENTIAL EVENT DRAWS
CLOSER...PLEASE STAY TUNED.

IN ADDITION...AN ELEVATED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SHOULD DEVELOP
FROM LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT(ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS) AS PROJECTED LOCALIZED CAPES/LIS AND BULK LAYERED WIND
SHEARS NEAR 1000+ J/KG...-5C AND 45 KNOTS AT TIMES RESPECTIVELY.

STILL ANTICIPATE THAT ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE EARLY TO MID
JUNE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NOTED INTO THURSDAY EVENING WITH NEAR
TO BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THEN EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO NEXT MONDAY WITH WARMER CONDITIONS THEN RE-DEVELOPING BY
NEXT TUESDAY.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE WARMEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
DURING THE LONGER TERM SHOULD BE REALIZED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH COOLEST CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED PROJECTED FRIDAY.
FINALLY...HAVE ALSO DEPICTED SOME HIGHER MOUNTAIN SNOW BY LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM MDT TUE JUN 9 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT
OR NR THE TAF SITES...WITH KALS POSSIBLY SEEING PCPN BEGINNING IN
THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS.

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR COZ064>075-078.

UPDATE...28
AVIATION...28

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

1111 PM MDT TUE JUN 9 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1110 PM MDT TUE JUN 9 2015

UPDATED POP FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AND WED MORNING BASED
ON THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR AND NAM12.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM MDT TUE JUN 9 2015

...REMNANTS OF BLANCA BEGINNING TO FILTER INTO THE REGION...

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM MDT TUE JUN 9 2015

NOT MANY LONGER TERM ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED AS UNSETTLED METEOROLOGICAL
PATTERN SHOULD BE NOTED DURING THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM.

PRIMARY METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES CONTINUE TO BE POPS(INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL AS STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS AT TIMES) AND TEMPERATURES.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 353 PM MDT TUE JUN 9 2015

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF
SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH POSSIBLE OUTFLOW
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...ESPECIALLY AT KCOS AND KALS.

OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE FLIGHT AREA AS THE REMNANTS OF FORMER
HURRICANE BLANCA SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL YIELD
INCREASING MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS YIELDING MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR/LIFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS. SOME OF THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS ARE INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AT KALS BY AROUND 06Z
TONIGHT...REACHING KCOS AND KPUB BY AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
TERMINALS...THEY MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL THEN CONTINUE RATHER NUMEROUS THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY.

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR COZ064>075-078.

UPDATE...28

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL

1057 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

.UPDATE (REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
14Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THE MAIN NORTHERN
STREAM/WESTERLIES FLOW MOVING OVER THE US/CANADIAN BORDER BEFORE
RIDGING UP OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC. SOMEWHAT CUTOFF FROM THIS
FLOW WE FIND A DEEP LAYER LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS/CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WE FIND OURSELVES ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS TROUGH WITHIN A DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC
SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. WITHIN THE MAIN TROUGH WE FIND A SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE TO OUR NORTHWEST OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE/BIG BEND
REGION. SYNOPTIC SUPPORT AHEAD OF THIS IMPULSE...ALONG WITH SOME
SUBTLE FGEN FIELDS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS/NAM/RAP ARE HELPING TO
FUEL A FAIRLY VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE BURST. ALMOST ALL AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE DOES SHOW THIS BURST OF CONVECTION WEAKENING
SUBSTANTIALLY AS IT MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD THE NATURE COAST.
HOWEVER...MOST ALSO SHOW OTHER RENEWED AREAS OF CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR OFFSHORE WATERS...LIKELY PARTIALLY RELATED
TO THE LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW...AND PARTIALLY RELATED TO
CONVERGENT OUTFLOW PUSHING SOUTH FROM THE PANHANDLE STORM COMPLEX.

IN ADDITION...THE ONSET OF TERRESTRIAL DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD
BEGIN TO FUEL SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LAND
ZONES. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS SOUTH OF THE REGION...
SUPPORTING A 1000-700MB SOUTHWEST ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN. THIS IS
PATTERN...ANY SEA-BREEZE THAT DEVELOPS WILL PUSH INLAND FAIRLY
QUICKLY. THEREFORE...THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF STORMS THE SECOND
HALF OF TODAY INTO THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO BE INLAND FROM THE
COAST. HOWEVER...USUALLY...THE STABILIZING/SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE
OF THE SEA-BREEZE KEEPS THINGS ON THE DRY SIDE...BUT TODAY...WITH
THE ADDED SYNOPTIC INFLUENCE FOR LIFT...IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT
WE WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A RISK OF SCT SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING
OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND ROLLING ASHORE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT
BE A VIGOROUS AS FURTHER INLAND...BUT THOSE VISITING THE BEACHES
SHOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO DODGE SOME RAINDROPS. THE GREATER
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS...EARLIER START...AND OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
SHOULD HELP KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES...AND HAVE
MOST SPOTS HOLDING IN THE 80S TODAY.

ACTIVITY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET...ALTHOUGH LIGHTER LEFTOVER STRATIFORM RAIN RAINS FROM THE
DECAYING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES MAY LINGER IN SOME AREAS TILL
MIDNIGHT OR SO. THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT...THE BEST SHOWER
CHANCES WILL LIKELY SHIFT TO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN GULF WATERS AND
INTO THE NATURE COAST ZONES. THE DEEP LAYER SOUTHWEST FLOW...HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT AND SYNOPTIC SUPPORT SUGGEST A GOOD SETUP FOR AT
LEAST SCT CONVECTION MOVING ASHORE (MAINLY PINELLAS COUNTY AND
NORTHWARD).

THURSDAY IS LOOKING LIKE OUR TRANSITION DAY IN LOW LEVEL
CONVECTIVE FLOW PATTERNS. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST BY ALL
RELIABLE NWP TO BEGIN SHIFTING BACK NORTHWARD AND HAVE ITS AXIS
STRETCHED ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY.
OVERALL THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN AS THE AXIS MOVES NORTHWARD. THIS
WEAKER / MORE VARIABLE FLOW USUALLY RESULTS IN BOTH THE EAST AND
WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES MOVING INLAND...WITH A COLLISION
OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE STATE. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE FOR THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA. FURTHER SOUTH DOWN TOWARD
FORT MYERS...THE AXIS MAY MOVE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO RESULT IN A
MORE DEFINED SOUTHEAST FLOW BY THE LATER DAY HOURS. SO...AFTER
MORE SCT SHOWERS MOVING ASHORE FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE MAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD
SHIFT INLAND FROM THE I-75 CORRIDOR FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ZONES WHERE THE FLOW IS MORE VARIABLE...AND HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
OF BEING A THREAT TO THE COAST/COASTAL WATERS FOR CHARLOTTE/LEE
COUNTIES WHERE THE FLOW WILL HAVE BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST IN NATURE.

THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SETS UP GENERALLY NORTH OF OUR AREA THROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SYNOPTIC LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEAST FLOW PATTERN. DEPENDING ON JUST HOW STRONG THIS FLOW
IS...THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR THE FINAL DAYS OF THE WEEK
IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION BACK TO THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND WESTWARD
TO THE COAST DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

.AVIATION...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE SEEN ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS
MORNING. ONLY EXCEPTION IS BRIEF PERIODS OF BKN MVFR CIGS ABOVE
2KFT MOVING IN TO KPIE OFF THE GULF. OVERALL EXPECT SCT-BKN
CUMULUS FIELD TO QUICKLY. DISTURBANCE APPROACHING COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. PERIOD OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS ASSOCIATED WITH
STORMS. SHOWER/MVFR CHANCES CONTINUE OVERNIGHT CLOSE TO THE
COAST.

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION
TODAY...WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY.
FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHEAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF. NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THE MAIN CONCERN.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 85 75 88 76 / 60 40 40 20
FMY 87 74 90 75 / 60 30 50 20
GIF 86 72 90 73 / 70 30 60 20
SRQ 85 75 89 74 / 50 50 40 20
BKV 85 71 88 70 / 60 30 60 20
SPG 85 77 88 77 / 50 50 40 20

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...14/MROCZKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MELBOURNE FL

945 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY FOR EAST CENTRAL FL...

WX PATTERN REMAINS VERY FAVORABLE FOR NMRS SHRAS/TSRAS ACRS THE EAST
FL PENINSULA TODAY. FRONTAL TROF OVER THE ERN SEABOARD IS KEEPING
THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS SUPPRESSED OVER THE FL STRAITS...RESULTING IN A
DEEP 10-15KT WRLY FLOW THRU THE H100-H70 LYR. PWAT VALUES OFF THE
12Z RAOBS BTWN 1.7"-1.8" WITH RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING MEAN RH VALUES
ARND 70PCT THRU THE H100-H50 LYR.

ALOFT...VORT FIELDS SHOW A LCL MAX JUST W OF KTPA POISED TO ADVECT
INTO CENTRAL FL WHILE A 50-60KT JET STREAK DIGGING INTO THE WRN
GOMEX WILL AID IN GENERATING GOOD UPR LVL DIVERGENCE OVER THE ERN
GOMEX. H70 AND H50 TEMPS ARND 7C AND -9C RESPECTIVELY...YIELDING
LAPSE RATES BTWN 6.5-7.0C/KM THRU THE LYR.

SIMILAR TO 12Z TUE...NO SIG INVERSIONS THRU THE H100-H70 LYR ON ANY
OF THE MRNG RAOBS BEYOND THE SFC INVERSION. DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL
INITIATE ALONG BOTH SEA BREEZES ONCE THE TEMPS REACH THEIR
CONVECTIVE TRIGGERS (M80S)...NOON OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. DEEP WRLY
FLOW WILL PIN THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR WITH
NEARLY STATIONARY SCT SHRAS/ISOLD TSRAS THRU MID AFTN...WEST COAST
SEA BREEZE WILL MARCH STEADILY ACRS THE PENINSULA WITH CONVECTION
INCREASING THRU MID AFTN MVG E/NE 10-15MPH.

SEA BREEZE MERGER AFT 3PM THIS AFTN OVER THE CSTL COUNTIES...DEEP
CONVECTION WILL GENERATE FRQNT CG LTG...LCL HEAVY RAIN...AND BRIEF
OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. WRLY STEERING FLOW WILL PUSH
SHRAS/TSRAS OFF THE EAST COAST INTO EARLY EVENING WITH ACTIVITY
BURNING OUT BY 11 PM.

.AVIATION...
THRU 10/16Z...PREVAILING VFR WITH LCL MVFR CIGS BTWN FL020-030 CSTL
SITES...S/SW WINDS 4-8MPH BCMG SE 7-11KTS CSTL SITES WITH THE
FORMATION OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. BTWN 10/16Z-10/20Z...NMRS
MVFR SHRAS/IFR TSRAS DVLPG ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE MVG E/NE 10KTS...LCL WND G25-35KTS. BTWN 10/20Z-10/24Z...E/W
COAST SEABREEZE MERGER JUST W OF I-95 CORRIDOR WITH SCT LIFR +TSRAS
DVLPG AND MVG E/NE ARND 10KTS...LCL WND G30-40KTS. BTWN 10/00Z-
10/02Z...CHC MVFR SHRAS/SLGT CHC IFR TSRAS. AFT 10/02Z...PREVAILING
VFR.

.MARINE...
ATLC HI PRES RIDGE REMAINS SUPPRESSED OVER THE FL STRAITS THANKS TO
A FRONTAL TROF PUSHING OFF THE ERN SEABOARD. LIGHT TO GENTLE SWRLY
BREEZE WILL PREVAIL...BCMG E/SE NEAR THE COAST BY EARLY AFTN WITH
THE FORMATION OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. SEAS 2FT OR LESS
NEARSHORE AND 2-3FT OFFSHORE...MAINLY IN A 9-10SEC NERLY SWELL.
PRIMARY MARINE THREAT WILL BE +TSRAS MVG OFFSHORE AFT 2PM...SOME
PRODUCING FRQNT CG LTG AND SFC G35KTS OR HIGHER...CONTG THRU 10PM
THIS EVNG.

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...BRAGAW
AVIATION/IMPACT WX.....ULRICH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TALLAHASSEE FL

925 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

WITH THE EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NW FL AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS, THE 8 AM EDT REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS WAS
DOMINATED BY MESOSCALE FEATURES. THERE WAS A MESO HIGH (ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK COLD POOL) AT PANAMA CITY, AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
TRANSLATING SOUTH AND EAST OFFSHORE, AND A SYNOPTIC SCALE (BUT
WEAK) TROUGH FROM COASTAL LA THROUGH THE FL PANHANDLE. VAPOR
IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR DATA SHOWED A NNE-SSW ORIENTED TROUGH OVER
THE FORECAST AREA, WITH PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE.

EARLY MORNING CONVECTION IS ALWAYS TRICKY THIS TIME OF YEAR
BECAUSE THE ASSOCIATED CS CANOPY CAN DISRUPT THE NORMAL DIURNAL
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION THAT DRIVES MOST OF OUR SUMMER
THUNDERSTORMS. BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR RUNS, WHICH APPEAR TO HAVE
INITIALIZED WELL, WE THINK THERE WILL BE A LULL IN DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING (EXCEPT FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS WHERE IT WILL STILL BE QUITE ACTIVE). HOWEVER,
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN MAY PERSIST A WHILE LONGER. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN TRANSLATE
NORTHWARD. THUS THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCES FOR FL HAVE ALREADY
OCCURRED, BUT THERE WILL STILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE (HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S) DUE TO THE CLOUD
COVER.

.PREV DISCUSSION [542 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...

THE AXIS OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND CUT OFF LOW OVER OUR CWA
TONIGHT WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM
THE EAST THROUGH FRIDAY. ON THURSDAY, WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST, DEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AND UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE TRI-STATE REGION. THUS, WE
EXPECT ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY FOR CONVECTION WITH POPS IN THE GOOD
CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE. ON FRIDAY, WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE THE
LOWERING OF DAYTIME POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY AS DEEP RIDGING
BUILDS OVERHEAD. MAX TEMPS WILL BE AT OR BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS
THURSDAY AND NEAR TO ABOVE ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM [FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...

THE MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE EAST
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BECOME CENTERED OVER THE SE CONUS MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. POPS WILL BE BELOW CLIMO (30% OR LESS) WITH
ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER MID 90S WITH LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY] SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRST AFFECT KTLH THIS MORNING AND
THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES.

.MARINE...

WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THIS
WEEKEND AND INCREASE TO MODERATE FLOW AS THE LOWER LEVEL PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS, PARTICULARLY OVER THE WESTERN WATERS. WHILE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA THROUGH THE
PERIOD, WE MAY SEE WAVE HEIGHTS OCCASIONALLY REACH UP TO 6 FEET
THIS WEEKEND.

.FIRE WEATHER...

HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

.HYDROLOGY...

MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TODAY WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN
GEORGIA, BUT STORMS ARE MOVING ENOUGH THAT THE FLOODING THREAT IS
LOW. SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT
ALL POINTS WILL REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE 89 71 86 71 90 / 80 40 60 30 30
PANAMA CITY 83 73 84 75 86 / 70 50 60 30 30
DOTHAN 87 69 88 71 89 / 50 30 50 30 30
ALBANY 89 70 88 72 90 / 60 30 50 30 30
VALDOSTA 89 71 90 70 92 / 60 30 60 20 30
CROSS CITY 90 70 83 68 91 / 50 40 70 40 30
APALACHICOLA 87 74 84 75 87 / 50 50 70 30 30

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...DVD/MERRIFIELD
MARINE...BARRY/MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...DVD/MERRIFIELD
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSONVILLE FL

919 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

.UPDATE...12Z SOUNDINGS A LITTLE MORE MOIST WITH HIGHER PRECIP
WATER VALUES...AROUND 1.8 INCHES...COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE ANIMATION HINTING AT WEAK WAVES IN UPPER FLOW
OVER EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FL PNDL. FOLLOWING HRRR SOLUTION
WITH ACTIVITY PROGRESSING OVER SUWANNEE VALLEY REGION THIS
MORNING. THIS AFTERNOON...LOW-LEVEL SW FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE EAST OF I-95 CORRID0R...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/
T-STORMS ALONG THIS FEATURE 18-21Z. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS POTENTIAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHIFTING WESTWARD AND MEETING WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE CTRL FL PENINSULA 22-00Z...WITH ACTIVITY MOVING SLOWLY
EASTWARD WHILE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING DURING THE LATE EVENING.
HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY POP GRIDS TO FOLLOW THIS TREND.

WITH SUFFICIENT HEATING LEADING TO MID-UPR 80S TEMPS AND DEWPTS
NEAR 70...SHOULD SEE SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES AROUND 2500 J/KG
WITH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONG DOWNDRAFTS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. THE TALLEST STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY
SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS...AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL GIVEN -9C 500MB
TEMPS. WILL MONITOR RADAR CLOSELY.

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU TONIGHT...
EXCEPT LOWER CONDITIONS VICINITY OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA. POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR WET
MICROBURSTS BENEATH TALLER STORMS.

.MARINE...NO SIG CHANGES PLANNED IN NEXT CWF ISSUANCE. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15KTS AND 2-4 FT SEAS EXPECTED NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE WATERS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 89 70 88 71 / 60 50 60 20
SSI 86 74 85 74 / 50 40 50 20
JAX 89 72 88 72 / 60 50 50 20
SGJ 87 72 87 73 / 50 50 50 10
GNV 89 70 87 70 / 60 40 60 10
OCF 88 70 88 70 / 60 40 50 10

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

WOLF/WALKER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON SC

644 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY...THEN WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/TSTMS CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS INLAND AREAS
AHEAD OF THE RESULTANT SEA BREEZE. KCLX REFLECTIVITY DATA SHOW
SEVERAL WELL DEFINED CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS ARE POISED TO COLLIDE
ACROSS FAR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AS WELL AS ALLENDALE-
HAMPTON COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
INSTABILITY REMAINS SUFFICIENT IN THESE AREAS TO SPAWN ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST RAP OUTPUT. HAVE THEREFORE
ADJUSTED POPS TO 80-90 PERCENT ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. ALSO REMOVED MENTIONABLE POPS FROM CHARLESTON COUNTY AS
IT APPEARS THIS AREA WILL REMAIN DRY IN THE WAKE OF THE RESULTANT.

TSTMS HAVE BEEN VERY PULSY IN NATURE TODAY WITH BRIEF...BUT
INTENSE...UPDRAFTS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE TSTM CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT...BUT THE AREA WEST OF I-95 AND NORTH OF I-16 IS THE MOST
LIKELY AREA FOR SEVERE TSTMS TO OCCUR. THE RISK FOR MINOR FLOODING
ALSO CONTINUES WITH TSTMS EXHIBITING VERY SLOW STORM MOTIONS.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST IS FORECAST
TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST SC/GA CREATING MORE CAPPING ALOFT
BUT DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. SOME MORNING
ATLANTIC/COASTAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL TRANSITION INLAND DURING
THE DAY AS A WEAK SEA BREEZE SETS UP AND INTERACTS WITH MODEST
INSTABILITY. BEST RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE SOUTH AND WEST OF
CHARLESTON. HIGHS LIKELY A BIT ABOVE NORMAL NEAR 90 INLAND. BY
THURSDAY NIGHT MOST OF THE RAIN WILL TRANSITION OFFSHORE WHERE THE
HIGHER INSTABILITY WILL BE. LOWS GENERALLY AROUND 70.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...EXPECT LOW RAIN CHANCES AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS ALOFT AND DEEP MOISTURE DIMINISHES A BIT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ON THE RISE AS CLOUD/RAIN COVERAGE DIMINISH AND LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES INCREASE. SHOULD SEE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND FRIDAY AND
MID 90S SATURDAY. EVEN THE BEACHES COULD GET NEAR 90 AS THE SEA
BREEZE GETS PINNED CLOSE TO THE COAST DUE TO THE ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST. BASED ON SOME
MIXING OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND RESULTANT LOWERING OF DEWPOINTS
DURING PEAK HEATING...HEAT INDEX VALUES INLAND SHOULD TOP OUT NEAR
100 DEGREES...ESPECIALLY BY SATURDAY...PROBABLY JUST SHY OF THE
EARLY SEASON ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS PRETTY SIMPLE...A
STRENGTHENING AND RETROGRADING UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WITH THE WESTERN
EXTENT OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THE FORECAST
FEATURES WARMING TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE TO NO DIURNAL CONVECTION.
HIGHS WILL BE SOLIDLY IN THE MID 90S THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
SOME INLAND AREAS RISING INTO THE UPPER 90S AT TIMES. THIS WILL
RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING INTO THE 100-103 DEGREE RANGE AT
TIMES...PERHAPS HIGHEST MONDAY AFTERNOON. LOCAL HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH THE MONTH OF JUNE IS 105...SO THERE IS CERTAINLY A
CHANCE THAT SOME LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH THIS THRESHOLD INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WATCHING TSTMS TO POSSIBLY IMPACT KSAV 00-02Z...BUT SUSPECT
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF THE TERMINAL. VFR EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL AT BOTH SITES THROUGH SUNRISE. CONVECTION WILL INCREASE
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS AT BOTH TERMINALS.
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/COVERAGE REMAINS TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY A MENTION
OF TSRA AT EITHER TERMINAL THIS FAR OUT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN...MAINLY VFR
LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A REDUCED PROBABILITY FOR DIRECT
IMPACTS FROM DIURNAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...S/SW WINDS 10-15 KT WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALIZED
HAZARDS...ESPECIALLY THROUGH FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY SOUTHERLY
WINDS WITH THE MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF AFTERNOON SURGES
NEAR THE COAST WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND NIGHTTIME SURGES DUE TO
NOCTURNAL JETTING. SEAS 4 FT OR LESS...HIGHEST GENERALLY BEYOND 20
NM.

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS POCATELLO ID

904 PM MDT THU JUN 11 2015

.UPDATE...NORTHERLY GRADIENT HAS BROUGHT DRIER AIR TO MOST OF EAST
IDAHO. A FEW SHOWERS OCCURRED IN THE BEAR LAKE REGION EARLIER THIS
EVENING WITH ONE LONE SHOWER DEVELOPING OFF THE EDGE OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND DRIFTING SOUTHEAST INTO THE SNAKE PLAIN. ALL
PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED THIS EVENING SO HAVE TRENDED REMAINDER OF
THIS EVENING SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER. ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE
CROSSING WASHINGTON INTO IDAHO PANHANDLE THIS EVENING APPEARING TO
DRAG A SMALL AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION ACROSS
NORTHEAST OREGON. ODDLY ENOUGH...BOTH RAP AND HRRR AGREE ON
DEVELOPING A SECONDARY BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN AND
EXTENDING INTO THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS OVERNIGHT. DIFFICULT TO TELL
IF THIS CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS FROM THIS STRONGER SHORTWAVE OR
IF ITS REDEVELOPMENT FROM REMNANTS OF THIS SHORTWAVE CROSSING EAST
IDAHO NOW. BOTH RAP AND HRRR SHOWING PRECIP ONGOING ALREADY AND
THIS IS OVERDONE BASED ON THE LAST FEW HOURS. BELIEVE THEM TO BE
OVERDONE HEADING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AS WELL. DMH

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 155 PM MDT THU JUN 11 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MODERATE NORTHEAST WIND OVER
THE AMERICAN FALLS RESERVOIR HAS NOT DEVELOPED OVER AMERICAN FALLS
AND SO HAVE CANCELED THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FLATTENED RIDGE WAS EVIDENT ACROSS THE
ERN PACIFIC EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH WAS MIGRATING EAST
THROUGH THE RIDGE AXIS INTO NW CANADA. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WAS
EVIDENT ACROSS SW MONTANA EXTENDING BACK INTO CNTRL IDAHO AND ACROSS
THE SE MOUNTAINS...THUS HAVE CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE REGIONS. THE MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE PAC TROUGH WILL DIG ESE TOWARD THE MONTANA HIGHLINE
TONIGHT/FRIDAY RESULTING INCREASED WIND...BUT AT THIS POINT WIND
SPEEDS APPEAR TO STAY UNDER THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLD WITH
TOP SPEED OF 16 KNOTS/19 MPH. THE STRONG WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH GRADUALLY LIFTS NE ACROSS CNTRL
CANADA SUPPORTING GUSTY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WINDS...BUT STILL
STAYING WELL BELOW THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE AREA
TRANSITIONS TOWARD A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH
OVER CANADA CONTINUES TO LIFT NE AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM LOW REACHES
THE NW CANADIAN COAST. OVERALL...A MOSTLY DRY AND LOCALLY BREEZY
PERIOD ANTICIPATED ACROSS SE IDAHO. HUSTON/MESSICK

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
STRENGTHENS MONDAY WHILE AN EJECTING DISTURBANCE IS KICKED INLAND
ACROSS IDAHO MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVE RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. BY TUESDAY...THE MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW
INCREASING DISCORDANCE IN THE HANDLING OF THE LOW ALONG THE CANADIAN
COAST...WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS (NOT FAVORED) RETROGRADING THE LOW
OFF THE COAST WHEREAS THE ECMWF AND A GOOD HANDFULL OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW THE LOW DRIFTING DOWN THE COAST AND EVEN
SHEARING INLAND ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THUS BEYOND
TUESDAY...HAVE MAINTAINED THE GOING FORECAST WHICH SUPPORTS SOME
MENTION OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CNTRL AND NRN
MOUNTAINS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND LOCALLY BREEZY
WINDS FROM TIME TO TIME. HUSTON/MESSICK

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL TAF
SITES. INTRODUCED VCTS AT SUN WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING TERRAIN
INDUCED THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS...BUT SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY
FROM SNAKE PLAIN TERMINALS...PREVENTING ANY IMPACT. LOW CONFIDENCE
WIND FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SW WINDS
IN THE 10-15KT DEVELOPING AT IDA..BYI AND PIH BY 03Z AND PERSISTING
INTO TOMORROW. BACKED OFF ON THAT IDEA FOR NOW AND TRENDED WINDS
TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY. AD/MESSICK

FIRE WEATHER...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH UTAH TODAY.
THIS WILL PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST IDAHO.
A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT
MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. VALLE

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BOISE ID

922 AM MDT WED JUN 10 2015

.DISCUSSION...LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM NEAR SMITHS
FERRY/ID SWWD TO ROME/OR WILL SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING AND SHOULD
BE IN SOUTH-CENTRL IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
ALSO DEVELOP. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL COME IN FROM OREGON DURING
THE DAY AND INTO WESTERN IDAHO ZONES LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. MOSTLY
SUNNY AND A LITTLE COOLER IN ALL AREAS THURSDAY UNDER WNWLY FLOW
ALOFT...BUT STILL WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE. CURRENT
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

.AVIATION...VFR. BKN-OVC MID LEVEL CLOUDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF A KREO-KMYL LINE. SURFACE
WINDS BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY 10-20KT THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTS TO 30KT
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL...NNW 10-20KT.

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY. DRIER AIR OVER
CENTRAL OREGON WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL END
ACROSS OREGON BY MID-MORNING. IN IDAHO...RADAR DATA SHOWED THAT A
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE BOISE MOUNTAINS
SOUTHWESTWARD BETWEEN BOISE AND MOUNTAIN HOME TO NEAR SILVER CITY
WAS NEARLY STATIONARY AT 3 AM. THIS LINE IS A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF
WHERE THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN DEPICTING THAT IT WOULD DEVELOP. THIS
BAND SHOULD SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD LATER THIS MORNING WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND EAST OF BOISE IN THE
AFTERNOON. TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT 6 TO 8 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECT LESS
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...DRY WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
WESTERN CANADA WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH SATURDAY. ON
SUNDAY MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH DEEPENING AND THE FLOW OVER OUR AREA
BECOMING MORE MOIST. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT STILL AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...JB
PREV LONG TERM....JT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BOISE ID

308 AM MDT WED JUN 10 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY. DRIER AIR WILL
OVER CENTRAL OREGON WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
END ACROSS OREGON BY MID-MORNING. IN IDAHO...RADAR DATA SHOWED THAT
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE BOISE
MOUNTAINS SOUTHWESTWARD BETWEEN BOISE AND MOUNTAIN HOME TO NEAR
SILVER CITY WAS NEARLY STATIONARY AT 3 AM. THIS LINE IS A LITTLE
TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN DEPICTING THAT IT
WOULD DEVELOP. THIS BAND SHOULD SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD LATER THIS
MORNING WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND
EAST OF BOISE IN THE AFTERNOON. TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...BUT 6 TO 8 DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY. EXPECT LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW
WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...DRY WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
WESTERN CANADA WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH SATURDAY. ON
SUNDAY MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH DEEPENING AND THE FLOW OVER OUR AREA
BECOMING MORE MOIST. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT STILL AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING...BECOMING NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS. AFTER 00Z THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF A
KLKV-KREO-KBOI-KMYL LINE...ENDING BY 06Z. SURFACE WINDS...NORTHWEST
5-10 KTS EXCEPT GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
ALOFT...NORTHWEST 10-15 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...JB
LONG TERM....JT
AVIATION.....JT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

701 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
556 PM CDT

CONVECTION IS DEEPENING OVER EASTERN IOWA IN ADVANCE OF
SUBTLE...LIKELY CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED/INDUCED...SHORTWAVE THAT IS
TRACKING SLOWLY EASTWARD. STRONG QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS LAID
OUT IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF I-80 WITH VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY RESULTING IN RAP ANALYZED MLCAPE
VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG. KILX/KDVN 88D VWP DATA SHOWING 40-45KT
FLOW AROUND 6KM AGL RESULT IN 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 35 KT
IN THE WARM SECTOR...AND A BIT HIGHER ALONG THE FRONT WHERE WINDS
ARE MORE BACKED. OVERALL WIND PROFILES LOOK GOOD FOR SUPERCELLS
WITH VEERING/STRENGTHENING WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT. THERE DOES
APPEAR TO BE SOME THREAT FOR TORNADOES WITH SUPERCELLS THIS
EVENING...PARTICULARLY ANY THAT CAN FESTER NEAR OR RIDE ALONG THE
WARM FRONT. BASED ON RAP FORECAST WIND PROFILES THE BUNKERS RIGHT
MOVING STORM MOTION IS EAST AROUND 10 KT...WHICH IS LARGELY
PARALLEL TO THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT INCREASING THE POTENTIAL
FOR A SUPERCELL TO RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET THIS EVENING SHOULD RESULT IN A VERY
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR. ASSUMING STORM MODE
REMAINS SUPERCELLULAR...THERE LOOKS TO BE A SHORT WINDOW FOR A
MORE SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT EARLY-MID EVENING WITH THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW INCREASE BUT PRIOR TO BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMING STABLE
ENOUGH FOR STORMS TO BECOME ROOTED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

IZZI

.SHORT TERM...
229 PM CDT

THROUGH FRIDAY...

CONCERNS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SOLAR
SHIELDING ACROSS NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN...WITH LESS CLOUD COVER
FURTHER SOUTH OF THE KANKAKEE RIVER. THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS SLOW TO LIFT NORTH...AND MAY BE AN INDICATION FOR LATER
TONIGHT WITH ACTIVITY BEING DISPLACED SOUTH ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA.

MOISTURE HAS POOLED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH DEW
POINTS RISING INTO THE LOW 70S...WHILE FURTHER NORTH THE EASTERLY
FLOW IS ALLOWING DEW POINTS TO HOLD IN THE LOW 60S. MID-LVL
VORTICITY MAXIMA FOCUSED ACROSS NEBRASKA/IOWA/KANSAS WILL STEADILY
SHIFT EAST WITH THE SFC LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. SREF 850MB WINDS OF 30-40KT FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS
PROGGED OVER THE CWFA TONIGHT...WITH MODERATE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ARRIVING SHORTLY AFT 3Z THRU DAYBREAK FRI. AS ELUDED TOO
EARLIER...OPER GUIDANCE IS HINTING THAT THE BOUNDARY MAY BECOME
ORIENTED ACROSS THE HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALLOWING
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO FEED ALONG THIS AXIS. WITH THE DEEP
MOISTURE PROGGED TONIGHT...THIS ALL POINTS TOWARDS THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. MANY LOCATIONS HAVE BECOME PRE-CONDITIONED
FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL...SO HAVE LEANED MORE LIBERAL WITH
HOISTING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THE OTHER CONCERN IS FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT.
WITH FLOW BACKED TO THE EAST NORTH OF I-80...WITH SLOWLY
DECREASING CIN FROM THE SLOWLY THINNING CLOUD COVER...THE
INSTABILITY HAS BEEN STEADILY INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
A FEW SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED EARLIER IN THE DAY...HOWEVER THE FOCUS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN WELL WEST ACROSS IOWA. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES NOT SUGGEST ANY VERTICAL GROWTH YET TO THE
CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN IL...HOWEVER JUST WEST INTO IOWA THERE IS
A CONVECTIVE LOOK TO THE CLOUDS. SUSPECT THAT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST...IT WILL HELP
TO TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND COULD QUICKLY BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE.

THE CONCERN IS MAINLY FOCUSED FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...HOWEVER GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF A SHARP FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND BACKED FLOW ALONG WITH ANOMALOUS PWAT ADVECTING NORTH...A FEW
STRONGER UPDRAFTS NEAR THE BOUNDARY COULD ROTATE AND PRODUCE AN
ISOLATED TORNADO.

FOR FRIDAY THE AXIS OF HIGH PWAT BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST...HOWEVER
THE DAY WILL LIKELY START UNSTABLE AND COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER
STORMS LATE IN THE MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON.
GUIDANCE INDICATES WEAK ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW ARRIVING ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND SHIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES FRI AFTN. THIS MAY HELP TO BRING AN END TO PRECIP EARLIER
ACROSS THE WEST/NORTHWEST CWFA FRI MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN. TEMPS FOR
FRI WILL BE DIFFICULT GIVEN THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. HAVE OPTED
TO ONLY MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GOING FORECAST WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 70S NORTH OF I-80...AND LOW/MID 80S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA.

BEACHLER

.LONG TERM...
229 PM CDT

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE SERN CONUS...WITH
LONG WAVE RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE ERN CONUS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ACTIVE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM PATTERN
WILL FORCE THE RIDGE SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS UPPER
TROUGHING DEEPENS OVER THE NWRN CONUS AND SWRN CANADA WHILE A SERIES
OF SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES LIFT NEWD OUT OF THE SWRN CONUS AND
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE NET EFFECT ON THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN OVER THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS WILL BE FOR
PERSISTENT SWLY FLOW ALOFT WITH A SERIES OF SRN STREAM SHORTWAVES
BRINING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE THE WORDING OF THE FORECAST MAY
SOUND A BIT MONOTONOUS...WITH CHANCES FOR PCPN EVERY
DAY...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TIMING AND
TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVES. EVEN THROUGH THE LONGER TERM MODELS ARE IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL TREND AND PATTERN...THE
MINOR TIMING...STRENGTH AND TRACK DIFFERENCES WILL AFFECT THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER FORECAST. THE PERIOD OF HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN THE
PCPN FORECAST WILL BE THE PERIOD FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY MORNING WHERE THE LONGER TERM MODELS EXHIBIT RATHER GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE FINER SCALE DETAILS OF THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY. THE
SCREAMING MESSAGE HERE IS THAT MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK SHOULD BE A WASHOUT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE
FRIDAY AND MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SPREADS ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS SOUTH
OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
LIFTS NWD THROUGH THE REGION. BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE SFC LOW IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PUSH THE WARM
FRONT THROUGH NRN IL/IN TO CNTRL WI/LAKE MICHIGAN/LOWER MICHIGAN.
THIS PATTERN IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE SCENARIO EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SO ANOTHER PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD AGGRAVATE ANY LINGERING RIVER FLOODING OR
AREAL OVER-LAND FLOODING.

THE TEMPERATURE TREND SHOULD LARGELY FOR NEAR SEASONABLE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...SUNDAY SHOULD BE A
BIT WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S...
ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR...WHICH WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM LONGER THAN THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THERE WILL ALSO BE OPPORTUNITIES FOR
LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT TO KEEP THE LAKEFRONT LOCATIONS COOLER THAN
INLAND AREAS. THE MOST PROMINENT LAKE BREEZE SHOULD BE ON SATURDAY
AS THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. NELY FLOW ON SATURDAY SHOULD KEEP THE
LAKEFRONT IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S...WHILE LOCATIONS WELL INLAND
WILL HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LAKEFRONT COOLING IS ALSO POSSIBLE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OUT OF CANADA AND SPREADS ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS.

KREIN

.HYDROLOGY...
229 PM CDT

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR WESTERN ILLINOIS AND SHIFT EAST.
FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A BOUNDARY WILL BECOME ORIENTED
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR AND SERVE AS THE FOCAL POINT FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. WITH DEEP MOISTURE
LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION...SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS.

SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN IL AND NORTHWEST IN HAVE
SATURATED SOILS FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE PAST FEW
DAYS...THAT ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
FLOODING AND POTENTIALLY FLASH FLOODING. HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT. THIS WILL FURTHER
AGGRAVATE ALREADY ELEVATED STREAMS.

BEACHLER

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...

* SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA THIS EVENING.
* SHRA WITH A CHANCE OF TSRA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
* NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15KT THIS EVENING.
* NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15KT FRIDAY MORNING THRU FRIDAY
EVENING.
* IFR CIGS FRIDAY. CMS

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR IKK TO VYS AND CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY SAG SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...REACHING NORTHERN ILLINOIS FRIDAY MORNING.
NORTHEAST/EAST WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND THEN DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THIS LOW...POSSIBLY SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH ACROSS THE CHICAGO AREA TERMINALS FOR A FEW HOURS...
BEFORE SHIFTING BACK NORTHWEST AND THEN TURNING TO NORTH/NORTHEAST
LATE FRIDAY MORNING OR EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE LOW TRACKS A
LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH...POSSIBLE WINDS WILL REMAIN EAST/NORTHEAST
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

AREA OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS NORTHWEST IL WILL REACH THE CHICAGO
TERMINALS IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. SHORT TERM/HI RES GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THIS MAY EXPAND IN COVERAGE INTO SOUTHERN WI AND BECOME
MORE RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER. THUS CONFIDENCE REGARDING PRECIP
COVERAGE/TIMING REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW FOR THIS EVENING. CONVECTION
OVER SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE LIFTING
EAST/NORTHEAST AND LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE REGARDING THIS TIMING/COVERAGE IS
MEDIUM THOUGH THUNDER COVERAGE IS STILL LOW.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO MID/LATE FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST. AS THE LOW LEVELS SATURATE AND
COOLER AIR SPREADS IN ON THE INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS...EXPECT
CIGS TO DROP THRU MVFR INTO IFR...POSSIBLY LIFR NEAR THE LAKE AND
AT GYY. CIGS WILL LIKELY LIFT TO MVFR AT RFD FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
THEN THE REST OF THE TERMINALS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR FRIDAY
EVENING. CMS

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...

* MEDIUM FOR SHRA/TSRA THIS EVENING...LOW FOR COVERAGE/TIMING.
* MEDIUM FOR SHRA/TSRA OVERNIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.
* HIGH FOR WINDS THIS EVENING AND FRIDAY...LOW OVERNIGHT.
* HIGH FOR IFR CIGS FRIDAY...MEDIUM FOR TIMING/DURATION. CMS

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

* SATURDAY...DRY. MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTHEAST WINDS.
* SUNDAY...SHRA/TSRA LIKELY. STRONG/GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* MONDAY...SHRA/TSRA LIKELY. WESTERLY WINDS.
* TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. NORTHEAST WINDS.

.MARINE...
310 PM CDT

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA WILL
NORTHEAST TO FAR NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS THIS EVENING AND THEN TURN
EAST AND TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OF LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
SOME THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BE SEVERE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...PRODUCING OCCASIONAL PERIODS
OF LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER WAVES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY SETTING UP A PERIOD OF
GENERALLY NORTHEAST WINDS. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST
SUNDAY...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDING
EAST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA SUNDAY WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH TO
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE. THE LOW SHOULD TRACK ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE LAKE SUNDAY NIGHT.

AREAS OF FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE LAKE TONIGHT AS THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM TRANSPORTS A VERY WARM...MOIST AIRMASS OVER
THE COLD LAKE WATERS.

KREIN

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-
ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY.

IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 10
AM FRIDAY.

LM...NONE.
&&

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

303 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

COLD FRONT SLOWLY EDGING TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN
A MUGGY AIRMASS. LAPS DATA SHOWING 4000-5000 J/KG AVAILABLE ENERGY
BUT SO FAR, CONVECTION HAS NOT YET STARTED. HOWEVER, CONVECTION IS
ANTICIPATED ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT SAGS INTO ILX NORTHERN TIER.
ADVANCEMENT OF THE FRONT IN THE OVERNIGHT IS LIMITED WITH STRONG WAA
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED TO
REMAIN IN THE NORTHERN TIER AT LEAST IN THE IMMEDIATE TERM. CAPE
WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT ONCE THE SUN SETS AND THE DIURNAL INFLUENCE
IS LOST. THAT BEING SAID, STILL ENOUGH OF A HUMID AND HOT AIRMASS
TO PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
NORTH OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY HAVANA TO DANVILLE. EVEN WITH PWS IN
EXCESS OF 1.5-2"...THE HRRR AND RAP/RUC IS SOMEWHAT LIMITING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THAT BEING SAID, THE
NORTHERN TIER OF ILX IS STILL IN A SLIGHT RISK THROUGH THE
EVENING...AND WITH AMPLE CAPE, EVEN WITHOUT A LOT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR, STORMS CAN EASILY DEVELOP SOME GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

THE 12Z MODELS SHOW THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING NORTHWARD IN THE
MORNING, IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE WILL CREATE A HOT AND
HUMID DAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SE IL. STORM CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO
THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT NORTHWARD, SO AREAS NORTH OF A LINE FROM
RUSHVILLE TO LINCOLN TO BLOOMINGTON WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCES.
SPC INCREASED OUR SEVERE POTENTIAL FROM MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK IN
THAT GENERAL AREA, WITH ELEVATED CAPES OF 2-2500 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR
OF 20-25KTS PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. SO DOWNBURST WINDS AND HAIL WILL
BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FOR THURS AFTN/EVE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW IN EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL SLIDE EAST
ACROSS IOWA. A BREAK IN THE STORMS APPEARS LIKELY, UNTIL AROUND
SUNRISE ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW REACHES CLOSE TO NW IL. STORM CHANCES
WILL EXPAND TO THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY...AS THE LOW PASSES TO OUR
NORTH AND IT DRAGS A COLD FRONT INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE
FRONT WILL TRIGGER STORMS, SOME POSSIBLE SEVERE WITH HAIL AND WIND.
SPC HAS US IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. WE FOLLOWED
THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA WITH
LIKELY POPS, FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ALL SHOW THE COLD FRONT STALLING OUT ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON SATURDAY...KEEPING THE FOCUS FOR STORMS
SOUTH OF PEORIA TO BLOOMINGTON. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
HELP LOWER HIGH TEMPS NORTH OF THE FRONT INTO THE LOWER 80S, BUT
HUMIDITY WILL NOT IMPROVE MUCH AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN MID TO UPPER 60S.

THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, WITH
STORM CHANCES INCREASING TO LIKELY ON SUNDAY WEST OF A LINE FROM
EFFINGHAM TO DANVILLE...AS A COUPLE OF STRONG SHORTWAVES TRIGGER
PERIODIC STORMS. LIKELY CHANCES OF RAIN LINGER NORTH OF PEORIA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE PLAINS INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. MORE LIKELY POPS APPEAR EVIDENT IN THE EXTENDED
MODELS FOR TUESDAY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES FROM KANSAS INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS.

ONE MAIN THEME THROUGHOUT THE 7 DAY FORECAST IS HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT IN THE AIRMASS, AND INSTABILITY EVERYDAY. SHEAR PARAMETERS
GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 25KTS, WHICH LENDS TOWARD SLOW MOVING
STORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. FLASH FLOODING
COULD BECOME A REAL CONCERN IN AREAS THAT SEE REPEATED STORM TRACKS
OVER THE NEXT WEEK. RAINFALL RATES OVER SHORT PERIODS OF TIME COULD
EASILY CLIMB AS HIGH AS 3 INCHES PER HOUR...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES REPEATEDLY CLIMB TOWARD 2 INCHES.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015
MESSY FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH PERIODIC THUNDER
CHANCES. HAVE OPTED FOR A TEMPO INVOF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS DOMINATE OTHER TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VCTS IS ENOUGH TO COVER SPI AND DEC
THROUGH THIS EVENING. BREAKING FROM VCTS TO VCSH TO LEAVE A BIT OF
A GAP IN THE THUNDER COVERAGE IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. SCT
AC ON SAT IMAGERY AND OBS CURRENTLY, SOME MORE SFC BASED CU
EXPECTED WITH THE CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND LINGERING
SCT LLVL CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND LIKELY BKN HIGH FROM
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS, ALTHOUGH MODEL TIME HEIGHTS ARE VERY DIFFUSE
WITH THE MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN AS WELL.

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...SHIMON
AVIATION...HJS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

1118 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
745 AM CDT

AN AXIS OF SCATTERED STORMS HAS PULSED UP NEAR THE I-80 CORRIDOR
ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE WAVE/MOISTENING ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND LIKELY SOME CONVERGENCE WITH THE 40-50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. IN
THE PAST 30 MINUTES...THE UPDRAFTS/CORES HAVE CONTINUED AN
INCREASING TREND. A FEW STORMS HAVE HAD PULSY STRONG DOWNDRAFT
SIGNATURES UNDER MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. DESPITE THE TIME OF
DAY...THE BOUNDARY LAYER SEEMS AT LEAST SOMEWHAT MIXED GIVEN GUSTS
FROM SOME OF THE STORMS AS WELL AS JUST SYNOPTIC GUSTS APART FROM
THE STORMS. RAP ANALYZED DOWNDRAFT CAPE IS PLENTY HIGH AS WELL
SUPPORTING THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS. HAVE HANDLED
THE BROAD AREA OF STORMS WITH AN SPS AND GRAPHICAST FOR THE TIME
BEING BUT POSSIBLE ANOTHER WARNING OR TWO ARE NEEDED.

MTF

.SHORT TERM...
330 AM CDT

THROUGH TONIGHT...

THERE ARE MULTIPLE CHALLENGES WITH THE FORECAST FOR TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING INCLUDING THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF MANY COMMUNITIES HITTING 90
FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR...AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
HEAVY RAIN-PRODUCING STORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.

A NICELY DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES STEERING A
WEAKENING SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL SLOW CONSIDERABLY AND LIKELY STALL NEAR INTERSTATE 80
OR JUST NORTH OF IT BY MID AFTERNOON. A 40-45 KT WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL
JET SAMPLED ON VAD PROFILERS IS ACCOMPANYING THE SHORT WAVE AND WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE REGION TODAY...EVEN LIKELY STRENGTHENING SOME
OVER THE EASTERN CWA. THIS JET WILL KEEP THE THERMAL RIDGE OVER
THE AREA AND THIS IS WITHIN THE MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...EVEN FOR
LOCATIONS IN FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS THAT TURN A NORTHWEST WIND
LATER THIS MORNING.

UPSTREAM ROABS LAST EVE AND A GUIDANCE BLEND FOR TODAY CHARACTERIZE
THE EARLY AFTERNOON 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 19-21C...WHICH IS IN THE
TOP TWO PERCENTILE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF JUNE...AND REANALYSIS DATA
FOR TEMPERATURES THAT WARM THIS TIME OF YEAR YIELD 90 AS A MEAN FOR
CHICAGO. UPSTREAM HIGHS YESTERDAY WERE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND
SHOULD REALIZE THAT ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY TODAY...AND
NEAR 90 NORTH OF IT. SOME OF THE WET GROUND AREAS MAY AGAIN END UP
A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER. IN THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA IF
TEMPERATURES DO REACH THE MID 90S...HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL
LIKELY TAG 100. AS FOR LAKE SHORE AREAS...THE TIMING OF ONSHORE
WINDS IS A BIT CHALLENGING WITH THE FRONT SINKING SOUTH. IT IS
THOUGHT WITH SUCH A WARM STARTING POINT TO TEMPERATURES TODAY THAT
EVEN DOWNTOWN CHICAGO WILL REACH 90 BEFORE FALLING SOME MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON...BUT MAY FALL SEVERAL DEGREES SHORT IF THE FRONT
IS A COUPLE HOURS EARLIER. SEE CLIMATE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE.

WHILE THERE COULD BE A FEW MORNING SHOWERS OR WEAK STORMS WITHIN THE
WARM ADVECTION REGIME...ATTENTION WILL BE ON THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A CONVERGENT AXIS FOR
THE WARM AND HIGH MOISTURE AIR...WITH LOW-MID 90S OVER NEAR 70 TDS
YIELDING POTENTIAL CAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG...WITH POSSIBLY EVEN
HIGHER ON MODIFIED NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS FOR IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. WITH SUCH A WARM THERMAL RIDGE A CAP IS EXPECTED BUT
FORECAST T/TD VALUES SUPPORT JUST OVERCOMING THAT. CONVECTIVE-
ALLOWING GUIDANCE...INCLUDING ENSEMBLES OF SUCH...HAVE A STRONG
SIGNAL OF DEVELOPING STORMS IN NORTHERN/NORTHWEST INDIANA TO NEAR
OR JUST SOUTH OF CHICAGO BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...WITH A LITTLE
MORE OF AN INCONSISTENT SIGNAL FURTHER SOUTHWEST WHERE SURFACE
FLOW IS WEAKER AND CAP IS STRONGER. STILL WOULD EXPECT NUMEROUS
STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY BY EARLY EVENING...WITH A VERY GRADUAL
FADE AFTER SUNDOWN. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS HIGHEST /35-40 KT/ CLOSEST
TO THE UPPER SHORT WAVE...SO IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WOULD
EXPECT A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS THERE...BUT
GIVEN THE HIGH MLCAPE VALUES ALONG THE BOUNDARY THE CHANCE FOR
SEVERE STORMS EXISTS ALONG THE ENTIRE BOUNDARY FROM 3-4 PM THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN THREATS WOULD BE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL FROM
STRONG DISCRETE STORMS INITIALLY...LIKELY MORPHING INTO A FEW
MULTICELLS BY EARLY- MID EVENING.

PROPAGATION VECTORS ARE A BIT WORRISOME...AS THEY INDICATE A VERY
SLOW SOUTH OR EVEN SOUTHWEST MOVEMENT BY EARLY EVENING. CONSIDERED
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NOW WET AREAS OF BASICALLY THE
KANKAKEE RIVER VALLEY OF NORTHWEST IN AND EASTERN IL. WILL
CONTINUE THE ESF AT THIS POINT SINCE COVERAGE/DURATION MAY BE
SOMEWHAT LIMITED...BUT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH WITH ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS TO HAVE SOME ISSUES. HAVE COLLABORATED HIGHER MESOSCALE
QPF WITH WPC AND NEIGHBORING WFOS.

MTF

.LONG TERM...
402 AM CDT

THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE FRONT WILL BEGIN RETURNING NORTHWARD THURSDAY MORNING AND
MORE SO INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS AS AN UPPER AND COUNTERPART
SURFACE LOW EVOLVE EASTWARD IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MOIST ADVECTION
OVERRIDING THE BOUNDARY COULD PRESENT MORNING SHOWERS OR STORMS
ACROSS MAINLY NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW INCREASES UP TO THE BOUNDARY BRINGING NEAR
OR AROUND 90 AGAIN TO SOUTHERN AREAS...SOME CONVECTION MAY BE
ABLE TO DEVELOP. CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
GREATEST FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS APPEARING TO BE NORTHWEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS
FROM AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT.

NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID
70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH LAKESIDE AREAS FAVORED TO REMAIN IN THE 60S
WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW.

WITH THE SURFACE LOW PASSING NEAR THE WI/IL STATE LINE FRIDAY
MORNING...STRONG SOUTHWEST SHOULD ENVELOP THE AREA. SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE LIKELY GIVEN MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER FORCING ALIGNED
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THE ABILITY TO DESTABILIZE IN
THE LOW-LEVELS MAY BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

BEYOND HAVE MADE FEW CHANGES GIVEN PLENTY TO FOCUS ON IN THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK ACTIVE...WITH POTENTIALLY EVEN A
BETTER MOIST FEED FROM THE WESTERN GULF LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL DEFINITELY BE CONCERNS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
AND POSSIBLE FLOODING...AND DEPENDENT ON INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVE
STRENGTH POSSIBLY CONCERNS FOR SEVERE WEATHER. ONE PERIOD THAT
DOES LOOK DRY WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO THE DAY SATURDAY...AND HAVE COLLABORATED AND FOCUSED POPS
MAINLY SOUTH IN THAT TIME.

MTF

.CLIMATE...
500 AM CDT

HIGHS OF 90 DEGREES PLUS ARE FORECAST ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-88
TODAY AND ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS
BASICALLY RIGHT ON PAR WITH NORMAL. FOR CHICAGO...THE NORMAL FIRST
90 DEGREE DAY IS JUNE 8 AND FOR ROCKFORD IS JUNE 11. DESPITE BEING
AT NORMAL...IF 90 WERE REACHED TODAY IT WOULD BE THE LATEST FIRST
90 DEGREE DAY FOR BOTH CITIES SINCE 2009.

MTF/KJB

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...

* GUSTY WEST WINDS THIS MORNING...BECOMING NORTHEAST TOWARD
EVENING WITH SAGGING COLD FRONT/LAKE BREEZE COMBINATION.

* TSRA LIKELY ALONG FRONT/LAKE BREEZE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING.

KJB/RODRIGUEZ

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...

THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE THREAT
AND TIMING FOR A PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH A
NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHIFT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS
THE AREA WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. FOR THE MOST PART THIS
ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. HOWEVER...A STRAY
STORM DID MOVE OVER KMDW...BUT THIS STORM WILL BE QUICKLY EXIT
OVER GYY THROUGH 12 UTC. OTHERWISE...THE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATED AS THEY SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING.

A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL LIKELY ACT AS THE FOCAL POINT FOR ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE EASTERN
TERMINALS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WITH THIS IN MIND...I
TRANSITIONED THE PROB 30 TO A TEMPO FOR TSRA. I CURRENTLY HAVE A 3
HOUR TEMPO FOR THUNDER...WHICH IS LIKELY A BIT LONGER THAN WHAT
WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR...SO THIS TIME MAY NEED TO BE SHRUNK SOME WITH
LATER UPDATES. THESE STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS BY EARLY EVENING. IT APPEARS THESE STORMS MAY REMAIN
SOUTH OF KRFD...SO I WILL LEAVE THEIR TAF DRY.

WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY OUT OF THE WEST THIS
MORNING...THEN WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THE A LAKE BREEZE/COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL SHIFT OVER THE TERMINALS AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A EAST-
NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHIFT AT THE EASTERN TERMINALS...AND A NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY SHIFT AT KRFD.

SOME LOWER CIGS DOWN AROUND 1,000 FEET AGL...ARE ALSO POSSIBLE BY
THURSDAY MORNING. ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AND THIS COULD DRAG SOME SOME FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS
ONSHORE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS. CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IS
LOW...BUT I OPTED TO INCLUDE THE MENTION IN THE ORD TAF AFTER 12
UTC THURSDAY. AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF SOME STORMS IS ALSO POSSIBLE
LATER TOMORROW MORNING...BUT SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES WILL ARRIVE
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

KJB

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...

* MEDIUM WITH FRONT/LAKE BREEZE WIND SHIFT TIMING THIS AFTERNOON.

* HIGH WITH TSRA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT MEDIUM ON
IF THESE STORMS WILL MOVE OVER A GIVEN TERMINAL AND DURATION.

* LOW-MEDIUM WITH LOWER CIG POTENTIAL AND TIMING THURSDAY
MORNING.

KJB/RODRIGUEZ

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

THURSDAY NIGHT...GOOD CHANCE OF TSRA. EAST WINDS.

FRIDAY...TSRA LIKELY. SOUTHWEST WINDS.

SATURDAY...IFR TO MVFR CIGS. NORTHEAST WINDS.

SUNDAY...GOOD CHANCE OF TSRA. SOUTH WINDS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING
SOUTH ON TUESDAY.

KJB

.MARINE...
313 AM CDT

CONDITIONS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FOG
AT TIMES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH MORE PERIODS OF DENSE
FOG POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT OVER THE LAKE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH THE WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME NORTHERLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER LAKE.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN BY FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO PRODUCE ACTIVE WEATHER
OVER THE LAKE...WITH PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS...FOG AND SOME
HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES. THE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN INCREASING OUT OF
THE EAST-NORTHEAST BY LATE THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT...ASSOCIATED
WITH THE APPROACHING LOW...WILL THEN LIKELY LIFT OVER AT LEAST
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE LAKE BY EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PERIOD OF GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE...WITH EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING
ON THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE.

PERIODS OF ACTIVE WEATHER LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES INTO NEXT
WEEK AS THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE AND VERY MOIST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

KJB

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

907 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
745 AM CDT

MTF

.SHORT TERM...
330 AM CDT

THROUGH TONIGHT...

MTF

.LONG TERM...
402 AM CDT

THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID
70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH LAKESIDE AREAS FAVORED TO REMAIN IN THE 60S
WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW.

MTF

.CLIMATE...
500 AM CDT

MTF/KJB

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...

* GUSTY WEST WINDS THIS MORNING...BECOMING NORTHEAST TOWARD
EVENING WITH SAGGING COLD FRONT/LAKE BREEZE COMBINATION.

* TSRA LIKELY ALONG FRONT/LAKE BREEZE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING.

KJB/RODRIGUEZ

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...

THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE THREAT
AND TIMING FOR A PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH A
NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHIFT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

KJB

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...

* MEDIUM WITH FRONT/LAKE BREEZE WIND SHIFT TIMING THIS AFTERNOON.

* HIGH WITH TSRA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT MEDIUM ON
IF THESE STORMS WILL MOVE OVER A GIVEN TERMINAL AND DURATION.

* LOW-MEDIUM WITH LOWER CIG POTENTIAL AND TIMING THURSDAY
MORNING.

KJB/RODRIGUEZ

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

THURSDAY NIGHT...GOOD CHANCE OF TSRA. EAST WINDS.

FRIDAY...TSRA LIKELY. SOUTHWEST WINDS.

SATURDAY...IFR TO MVFR CIGS. NORTHEAST WINDS.

SUNDAY...GOOD CHANCE OF TSRA. SOUTH WINDS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING
SOUTH ON TUESDAY.

KJB

.MARINE...
313 AM CDT

PERIODS OF ACTIVE WEATHER LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES INTO NEXT
WEEK AS THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE AND VERY MOIST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

KJB

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

746 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
745 AM CDT

MTF

.SHORT TERM...
330 AM CDT

THROUGH TONIGHT...

MTF

.LONG TERM...
402 AM CDT

THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID
70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH LAKESIDE AREAS FAVORED TO REMAIN IN THE 60S
WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW.

MTF

.CLIMATE...
500 AM CDT

MTF/KJB

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...

* GUSTY WEST WINDS THIS MORNING...BECOMING NORTHEAST TOWARD
EVENING WITH SAGGING COLD FRONT/LAKE BREEZE COMBINATION.

* TSRA LIKELY ALONG FRONT/LAKE BREEZE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING.

KJB

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...

THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE THREAT
AND TIMING FOR A PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH A
NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHIFT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

KJB

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...

* MEDIUM WITH FRONT/LAKE BREEZE WIND SHIFT TIMING THIS AFTERNOON.

* HIGH WITH TSRA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT MEDIUM ON
IF THESE STORMS WILL MOVE OVER A GIVEN TERMINAL.

* LOW-MEDIUM WITH LOWER CIG POTENTIAL AND TIMING THURSDAY
MORNING.

KJB

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

THURSDAY NIGHT...GOOD CHANCE OF TSRA. EAST WINDS.

FRIDAY...TSRA LIKELY. SOUTHWEST WINDS.

SATURDAY...IFR TO MVFR CIGS. NORTHEAST WINDS.

SUNDAY...GOOD CHANCE OF TSRA. SOUTH WINDS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING
SOUTH ON TUESDAY.

KJB

.MARINE...
313 AM CDT

PERIODS OF ACTIVE WEATHER LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES INTO NEXT
WEEK AS THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE AND VERY MOIST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

KJB

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

326 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

COLD FRONT WAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND CONTINUED TO MOVE SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD. AT 3 PM IN OUR NORTHERN CWA TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE
MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S IN OUR FAR NW CWA. SOUTH
OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES WERE IN THE MID 90S TO 100
IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA.

THE HI-RES HRRR MODEL FIRES UP THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. SBCAPES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MORE THAN 5000 J/KG BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS VERY
WEAK. BUFKIT SHOWS THE CIN DIMINISHING BY MID AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE TO OVER 1.8 INCHES. THESE PARAMETERS
SUGGEST THE STRONGER STORMS WOULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
TORRENTIAL RAINS. WITH FREEZING LEVELS AT 13K THE THREAT OF LARGE
HAIL IS LOW. THE NAM FIRES UP THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING SO IS
LATER THAN THE HRRR BUT FOR NOW THE FORECAST HINGES ON THE MESO
MODEL. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

TONIGHT...FRONT WILL STALL IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA THIS EVENING AS IT
RUNS INTO RIDGING ALOFT THAT EXTENDS FROM TX TO MO. AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT THIS FRONT WILL BEGIN
LIFTING SLOWLY BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD
WITH THE FRONT AND ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ALSO INCREASES OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
AND HEAVY RAINFALL. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
60S NORTH TO AROUND 70 SOUTH.

THURSDAY...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT INCREASES AS A SURFACE
CYCLONE TRACKS INTO WESTERN IA BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE WARM
FRONT LIFTING INTO OUR NORTHERN CWA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR BECOMES
STRONG (50 KT) DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SBCAPES INCREASE TO
2500-3000 J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY ESPECIALLY IN OUR
NORTH CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT...AND THEN SPREADING INTO OUR
WESTERN CWA AS THE STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR LIKELY BUT THE MAIN TORNADO THREAT AT THIS
TIME LOOKS TO BE TO OUR WEST CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW AND TRIPLE
POINT. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS OVER OUR ENTIRE CWA.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S ALONG HIGHWAY
20 TO NEAR 90 IN OUR FAR SOUTH. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S IN OUR FAR SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE ACTIVE
PATTERN AND ROUND OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH
THE PATTERN HAS SHIFTED NORTH INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THE LONG TERM AT
LEAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EVERY DAY FOR THE
EXCEPTION OF FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WITH FORECAST QPF AMOUNTS
WE MAY START TO SEE SOME HYDRO IMPACTS ON OUR WATERWAYS.

THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH A SFC CYCLONE PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN CWA. WARM FRONT
SHOULD BE JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. 1000-700 AND H85 MOIST TRANS VECS
PEG AREAS ACROSS SOUTHERN MN INTO CENTRAL WI. THIS AREA WILL BE THE
AREA FOR THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER WITH THE CAPE
ACROSS OUR AREA ALONG WITH HIGH PWATS OF CLOSE TO 2 INCHES...
SUGGESTS THAT HEAVY RAIN COULD FALL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT. AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD
THREAT COULD EXIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA THURSDAY EVENING INTO
FRIDAY AM.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTERS IDEAS ON THE
SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE AREA QUICKLY FRIDAY DURING THE DAY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A DRY FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO NORMAL THEN THE FLOW TURNS ZONAL AND EVEN SW. A SERIES OF
WAVES WILL LEAD TO THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. AS WE
GET CLOSER TO EACH OF EVENTS...THE MESOSCALE FEATURES WILL BECOME
BETTER FORECAST AND DETAILS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. HOWEVER...MVFR/LCL IFR CONDS IN
THUNDERSTORMS THAT FIRE UP LATER THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
80 ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING WEAKENING COLD FRONT.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT.

WIND FORECAST...FOR KCID/KDBQ/KMLI NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON BECOMING NORTHEAST TONIGHT THEN SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY.
WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS. FOR KBRL...SOUTHWEST TO WEST
THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING NORTHEAST TONIGHT THEN SOUTH ON THURSDAY.
WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

WITH WPC FORECAST OF CLOSE TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN TO OUR NORTH...IT
LOOKS AS THOUGH WE MAY SEE SOME FLOODING ISSUES ON OUR RIVERS AS THE
THE WATER IS ROUTED INTO OUR AREA. CONTINGENCY FORECASTS SUGGEST
THAT SOME OF THE SITES COULD REACH FLOOD STAGE IF THE CURRENT
FORECAST HOLDS TRUE. AS A RESULT...CUSTOMERS WITH INTERESTS AROUND
THE RIVERS SHOULD PAY ATTENTION FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING IN THE NEXT
FEW DAYS TO WEEK.

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...HAASE
HYDROLOGY...GIBBS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

103 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

WEAK COLD FRONT HAS JUST PASSED THROUGH THE QUAD CITIES WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST. AT NOON IN OUR NORTHERN CWA TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 50S IN OUR
NW CWA. SOUTH OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES WERE WELL INTO THE 80S
WITH MT. PLEASANT AT 90 WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. HEAT
INDEX VALUES AT NOON WERE IN THE MID 90S IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA.

THE HI-RES HRRR MODEL FIRES UP THUNDERSTORMS BY MID AFTERNOON
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. SBCAPES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MORE THAN 4000 J/KG BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK.
BUFKIT SHOWS THE CIN DIMINISHING BY MID AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE
WATERS INCREASE TO OVER 1.8 INCHES. THESE PARAMETERS SUGGEST THE
STRONGER STORMS WOULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND TORRENTIAL
RAINS. WITH FREEZING LEVELS AT 13K THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL IS LOW.
THE NAM FIRES UP THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING SO IS LATER THAN THE
HRRR BUT FOR NOW THE FORECAST HINGES ON THE MESO MODEL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1003 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

1 MIN SRSOR VIS FROM GOES14 DEPICTS THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
MORNINGS CONVECTION QUITE WELL. 1 MIN DATA SHOWED OVERSHOOTING
TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGEST STORM OVER MERCER COUNTY. WHEN
THESE TOPS STOPPED....THE STORM COLLAPSED. AS AS TCU AND STORMS
BECAME LESS ATTACHED TO THE MIDLEVEL BOUNDARY STORMS STARTED TO
DECAY. AS A RESULT...CHANGED HOURLY POPS TO BETTER REPRESENT WHAT
IS GOING TO HAPPEN. ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AS THE 1 MIN DATA
SUGGESTS THAT CLOUDS FROM THE NORTH ARE FILLING IN ACROSS THE
AREA. OTHERWISE SMALL CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES WERE MADE.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

A COLD FRONT IS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDWEST...EXTENDING FROM
GRB TO ARX TO DMX TO SUX AT 08Z. SATELLITE SHOWS MAIN SHORT WAVE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT RACING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN NORTHERN
STREAM...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE SOUTHWESTERN US AND
EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

FORECAST FOCUS REMAINS ON VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.

FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE CWFA THIS MORNING. WITH
UPPER SUPPORT WELL TO THE NORTH AND RACING QUICKLY EAST...SHOULD SEE
A MAINLY DRY FROPA THE REST OF TONIGHT. WITH SUNRISE...HOWEVER...
SITUATION BEGINS TO CHANGE. FRONT WILL SLOW AND EVENTUALLY STALL
OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWFA TODAY AS THE UPPER FORCING EXITS TO
THE EAST. WARM AIR ALREADY IN PLACE AND BUILDING UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL RESULT IN A VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWFA. SOME SPOTS COULD SEE HEAT INDEX NEAR OR
AT 100F.

WITH THE BOUNDARY IN THE AREA AND ABUNDANT HEATING...CHANCE FOR
STORMS TO DEVELOP WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WITH DEW POINTS AT 70+...ATMOSPHERE WILL BE EXTREMELY
UNSTABLE. AND INDEED MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPES OVER
4000J/KG. EVEN ASSUMING MODEL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS OVERDONE
AND LOWERING SURFACE DEW POINTS BY A CATEGORY OR TWO...STILL YIELDS
HIGH CAPES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
DOWNBURSTS WITH STORMS TODAY AND SPC HAS INCLUDED THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF OUR AREA IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. GIVEN POTENTIAL
UPDRAFT STRENGTH CANNOT RULE OUT HAIL AS A THREAT BUT BELIEVE
DAMAGING WIND IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

TONIGHT...WE SHIFT OUR ATTENTION TO THE SOUTHERN STREAM WHERE A WAVE
WILL BEGIN TO EJECT OUT OF COLORADO AND WITH IT AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW. THE STALLED FRONT OVER SOUTHERN IA WILL BEGIN TO NUDGE
SLOWLY NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL SPREAD NORTH
ACROSS THE CWFA. LIMITED UPPER FORCING AND DECREASING INSTABILITY
SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE THREAT TONIGHT...HOWEVER...INCREASING
PRECIPITABLE WATERS AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT WILL ENHANCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EAST CENTRAL PLAINS LLVL CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE
TO ORGANIZE AND DEEPEN ON THU AS UPPER LEVEL WAVE/JET ENERGY EJECTS
OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN PLAINS TOWARD THE MO RVR VALLEY BY LATE IN
THE DAY. ASSOCIATED WNW-TO-ESE ORIENTED WARM FRONT WILL LOOK TO
RETREAT NORTHWARD ACRS THE CWA...BUT ONLY THE NAM CLEARS THE CWA BY
00Z FRI WHILE BULK OF THE OTHERS LINGER THE BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE NORTH
OF I80 TO THE HWY 30 CORRIDOR THU AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. WITH
ANY KIND OF MORNING CONVECTION ALONG THIS FRONT IT WILL PROBABLY BE
SLOWED UP AND WILL LEAN TOWARD THE HWY 30 LAY OUT BY THU EVENING.
ALTHOUGH STRONGEST FORCING/DEEPER LIFT MECHANISMS WILL LOOK TO OCCUR
FURTHER TO THE WEST ALONG AND EAST OF THE MO RVR VALLEY/WESTERN HALF
OF IA INTO SW MN THU AFTERNOON...SHEAR ALONG THE RETREATING WARM
FRONT AND ADJACENT MUCAPE POOL ALONG AND SOUTH OF IT POSSIBLY
REACHING 3K-4K J/KG COULD FUEL A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN THE
NORTH HALF OF THE CWA THU AFTERNOON. LARGE TEMP GRADIENT FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH BECAUSE OF THE FRONT...WITH AREAS IN THE SOUTHERN CWA OR
EVEN JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT WARMING INTO THE 90S IF CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLEARS IN TIME. HEAT INDICES OF A 100 OR MORE IF SFC DPTS CAN
POOL AT LEAST INTO THE LOWER 70S.

ASSESSING SEVERAL MCS SPAWNING PARAMETERS AND GENERATION TOOLS... THE
MODELS ARE CURRENTLY ADVERTISING AN IMPRESSIVE SET UP FOR STRONG
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OUT WEST IN THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF IA INTO
SOUTHWESTERN MN THU AFTERNOON...WITH A RESULTANT SIGNIFICANT MCS
THEN PROPAGATING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. MODEL ENSEMBLES UTILIZING A
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ LOADED WITH A PWAT AIR MASS OF 1.8 TO 2
INCHES... FEED A VERY HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING COMPLEX ACRS NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL IA...SOUTHERN MN INTO THE NORTH HALF OF WI LATE
THU AND THU NIGHT. SEVERAL MODELS HAVE EVEN TRENDED A HEAVY RAIN
AXIS FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST THAN THAT AND FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WITH
THE AXIS FROM SW MN INTO NW WI. BUT LOOKING AT THE TRUE LLVL
CONVERGENT AXIS OF THE THTA-E RICH FEED...+18 TO +20C H85 TEMP
GRADIENT AND MCS GENERATION/SUPPORT PARAMETERS BY THESE SAME
MODELS....THEY MAY BE INDUCING THE HEAVY PRECIP COMPLEX TO FAR TO
THE NORTH AND FEEL IT WILL BE MORE ALONG AN AXIS FROM NORTHWESTERN
IA...ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER AND THEN INTO SOUTHWESTERN TO CENTRAL WI
BY EARLY FRI MORNING. THUS SOME POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CWA OF 1-2 INCHES THU NIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF CID TO
DBQ. WITH LINGERING HIGH CAPES IN PLACE AND INCOMING LIFT...THERE
MAY BE A CHANCE FOR MORE SEVERE STORMS EVEN AT THE USUALLY MORE
UNFAVORABLE LATER AT NIGHT TIME FRAME...AS THE SOUTHEASTERN FLANK OF
THE MCS ITSELF OR TRAILING LINE OF STORMS MAKES IT/S WAY ACRS
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT LATE
NIGHT THREAT. LOCAL FLASH FLOODING IN THE NORTHWEST HIGH RAIN AREAS
AS WELL WITH INTENSE RAINFALL RATES POSSIBLE. THE INCOMING SYSTEM
COULD CLEAR OUT BY MID FRI MORNING QUICKER THAN WHAT THE MODEL
SUGGEST...THEN A LULL PERIOD TO RECOVER FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
STRONG GRADIENT WIND SURGE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS FRI AM BEHIND/IN
THE WAKE DEPARTING MCS. COOLER FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S.

SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...PASSING WAKE LLVL RIDGE LOBE
PROBABLY TO MAKE SAT THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH A BREAK IN THE
RAIN AND TEMPS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S. BUT MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS/
MREF THINKING SUGGEST THIS REPRIEVE SHORT LIVED WHILE
SOUTHWESTERLIES RE-LOAD ACRS THE PLAINS AND A POSSIBLE WAVE EJECTS
OUT TOWARD THE AREA LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THEN THE REGION
APPEARS TO SET UP ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF BROAD UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE OH RVR VALLEY...WITH ONGOING HIGHER MOISTURE FEED UP AND
AROUND IT/S WESTERN FLANK ENHANCED WITH MONSOONAL INFLUENCE. THUS
THE NOW WELL ADVERTISED WET REGIME IN THE ACTIVE ZONE WITH
OCCASIONAL STORMS CLUSTERS STILL APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK THIS
PERIOD...IT/S JUST THE UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE THE PRIME AXIS-STORM
TRACK WILL LAY OUT. BUT AGAIN THE MREF SUGGESTS WE WILL BE IN OR
VERY CLOSE TO IT WITH THE WET TRACK LAYING OUT FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS OVER TO THE SOUTHERN GRT LKS. ..12..

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...HAASE
SYNOPSIS...DMD
SHORT TERM...DMD
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...HAASE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

515 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF
PITTSBURGH AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
515PM UPDATE...ATMOSPHERE REMAINS CAPPED...EASILY SEEN WITH THE
WARM 700MB TEMPS AND THE LACK OF CU. THE WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT
DEVELOPED A FEW SHOWERS EARLIER ACROSS THE NORTH HAS EXITED TO THE
EAST AND THE AREA IS NOW DRY. THE WEAK FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO
MOVE INTO THE NORTH LATE THIS EVENING HAS SLOWED...CAUSING A PUSH
BACK IN POP TIMING. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARD A BIT THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...BECAUSE OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED CAP AND THE
LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN THE PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY. ITS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY THAT ANY SEVERE
ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP...MAY EVEN STRUGGLE TO GET ANY CONVECTION
GOING AT ALL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SLIGHT RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AS A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE AREA. WHILE THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING WAS
VERY DRY...UPSTREAM MID LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES ARE MUCH HIGHER AND
EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A MID LEVEL LOW
TRANSITIONS ACROSS ONTARIO AND INTO QUEBEC AND WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
STRENGTHENS. LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW FAIRLY THIN CAPE
PROFILES BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT STILL SEE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS TO GO SEVERE...MAINLY DUE TO
WINDS WITH DCAPE VALUES ANTICIPATED BETWEEN 1000-1300 J/KG.

SCATTERED SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT WITH MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THERE IS NO
SEVERE THREAT.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED TO TURN SOUTHWEST LATER THURSDAY PUSHING
THE FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FRIDAY IS PROGGED TO KEEP SHOWER/STORM CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST THOUGH WITH LACK OF A TRIGGER KEPT ONLY LOW POPS. THE
NEXT ORGANIZED SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED FOR A SATURDAY PASSAGE...ALONG
WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...WITH CONTINUED SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES. WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE
PASSAGE OF THE SATURDAY FRONT.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS AN EASTERN CONUS RIDGE
BUILDS...LEAVING WEAK QUASIZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
UPPER OHIO REGIONS. CHANCE PRECIP NUMBERS WILL HAVE TO BE
MAINTAINED GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF SHORTWAVE PROGRESSION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PERIMETER OF THE RIDGE...I.E. THE IMMEDIATE AREA. WPC
GUIDANCE GENERALLY DEPICTED THE SITUATION WELL AND FEW CHANGES
WERE NEEDED.

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONVECTION FROM THIS MORNING HAS STRUGGLED TO MAKE IT FAR FROM
LAKE ERIE THROUGH THE NOON HOUR WITH SUCH A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE...AS INDICATED IN THE 12Z PIT SOUNDING. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CHANGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS GUSTY SW FLOW
MOISTENS THE LOWER LEVELS AND PROVIDES FOR SOME INSTABILITY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP ALONG BOTH THE COLD FRONT AND LAKE
BREEZE.

UNTIL THAT TIME...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST. WITH INCREASING
CONFIDENCE...CONTINUED TO MENTION TSRA FOR KFKL AND KDUJ BUT CHOSE
TO KEEP IT OUT OF THE SITES FURTHER SOUND WITH LESS CONFIDENCE
THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAKE IT BEFORE NIGHTFALL AND A LOSS OF
HEATING. EXPECT TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS AT ANY SITE THAT EXPERIENCES
A THUNDERSTORM...WITH LINGERING RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT POSSIBLE
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.

COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARD TOMORROW...WITH
RESTRICTIONS IN THUNDER AGAIN POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...CONVECTION
WOULD BE LATE ENOUGH THAT IT WAS NOT ADDED TO THIS TAF ISSUANCE AT
THIS TIME.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS ANTICIPATED WITH A
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

301 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH
OF PITTSBURGH AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A SLIGHT RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AS A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE AREA. WHILE THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING WAS
VERY DRY...UPSTREAM MID LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES ARE MUCH HIGHER AND
EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A MID LEVEL LOW
TRANSITIONS ACROSS ONTARIO AND INTO QUEBEC AND WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
STRENGTHENS. LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW FAIRLY THIN CAPE
PROFILES BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT STILL SEE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS TO GO SEVERE...MAINLY DUE TO
WINDS WITH DCAPE VALUES ANTICIPATED BETWEEN 1000-1300 J/KG.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THE UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED TO TURN SOUTHWEST LATER THURSDAY PUSHING
THE FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FRIDAY IS PROGGED TO KEEP SHOWER/STORM CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST THOUGH WITH LACK OF A TRIGGER KEPT ONLY LOW POPS. THE
NEXT ORGANIZED SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED FOR A SATURDAY PASSAGE...ALONG
WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...WITH CONTINUED SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES. WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE
PASSAGE OF THE SATURDAY FRONT.

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONVECTION FROM THIS MORNING HAS STRUGGLED TO MAKE IT FAR FROM
LAKE ERIE THROUGH THE NOON HOUR WITH SUCH A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE...AS INDICATED IN THE 12Z PIT SOUNDING. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CHANGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS GUSTY SW FLOW
MOISTENS THE LOWER LEVELS AND PROVIDES FOR SOME INSTABILITY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP ALONG BOTH THE COLD FRONT AND LAKE
BREEZE.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS ANTICIPATED WITH A
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

118 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SLIGHT RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AS A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE AREA. WHILE THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING WAS
VERY DRY...UPSTREAM MID LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES ARE MUCH HIGHER AND
EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A MID LEVEL LOW
TRANSITIONS ACROSS ONTARIO AND INTO QUEBEC AND WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
STRENGTHENS. LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW FAIRLY THIN CAPE
PROFILES BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT STILL SEE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS TO GO SEVERE...MAINLY DUE TO
WINDS WITH DCAPE VALUES ANTICIPATED BETWEEN 1000-1300 J/KG.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
LEVELS.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL NORTH OF PIT SHOULD QUICKLY COME TO
AN END THIS EVENING AS INSTABILITY AND UPPER SUPPORT QUICKLY
DIMINISH. THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE CROSSING THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE STALLING. MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY THOUGH
MOST OF THE TIME SHOULD BE DRY WITH NO UPPER SUPPORT PROGGED.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS AN EASTERN CONUS RIDGE
BUILDS...LEAVING WEAK QUASIZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
UPPER OHIO REGIONS. CHANCE PRECIP NUMBERS WILL HAVE TO BE
MAINTAINED GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF SHORTWAVE PROGRESSION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PERIMETER OF THE RIDGE...I.E. THE IMMEDIATE AREA. WPC
GUIDANCE GENERALLY DEPICTED THE SITUATION WELL AND FEW CHANGES
WERE NEEDED.

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONVECTION FROM THIS MORNING HAS STRUGGLED TO MAKE IT FAR FROM
LAKE ERIE THROUGH THE NOON HOUR WITH SUCH A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE...AS INDICATED IN THE 12Z PIT SOUNDING. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CHANGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS GUSTY SW FLOW
MOISTENS THE LOWER LEVELS AND PROVIDES FOR SOME INSTABILITY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP ALONG BOTH THE COLD FRONT AND LAKE
BREEZE.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS ANTICIPATED WITH A
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

1044 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALTHOUGH VFR WILL PREDOMINATE FOR MUCH OF TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
IS ERODED...A WEAK SHORT WAVE IN WNW FLOW ALOFT MAY SUPPORT SOME
SHOWERS AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS LATER THIS MORNING...PRIMARILY NORTH
OF PITTSBURGH. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AT FKL AND DUJ
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS ON AVERAGE.

A BETTER RESTRICTION CHANCE IS EXPECTED FOR PORTS NORTH OF PIT BY
THIS EVENING THOUGH AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OFF THE LAKES WITH
THE ADVANCE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND ON THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE I 70 CORRIDOR AND SERVES AS THE
FOCUS FOR MORE CONVECTION AND LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT BEFORE LIFTING
NORTHWARD AGAIN. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS
ANTICIPATED WITH A FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

749 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2015

CONTINUED TREND OF SIGNIFICANTLY CUTTING NRN EXTEND OF POPS AND
LOWER QPF AS MODELS HAVE PERFORMED...AND CONTINUE TO
PERFORM...HORRIBLY. HRRR DEFINITELY DOING THE BEST WITH QPF
CURRENTLY...SO STARTED WITH THAT AND USED TRENDS FROM THE NAM-
DNG/GEM-REGIONAL/HRRR/NCEP-WRFS FOR POP/QPF TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
HAVE CONFINED CHANCE OR GREATER POPS TO S OF A LINE FROM IRON
MOUNTAIN TO NEWBERRY. ALSO CLEARED CLOUDS OUT FROM W TO E FASTER ON
FRI. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD AROUND 0.75 INCHES OF QPF AT
MENOMINEE...BUT CUT THAT BACK TO AROUND 0.35 INCHES NOW.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2015

PLAYING CATCH-UP ON THE PRECIP THAT KEEPS ON SHOWING A MORE S TRACK.
THIS HAS BEEN THE TREND IN THE FCST SOLUTIONS OVER THE PAST 6-12HRS
OR SO. TRANSITIONED FROM NEARLY 2IN OF PRECIP FCST FOR MENOMINEE
COUNTY TO LESS THAN AN INCH. AS OF 19Z...MNM HAD PICKED UP 0.10IN.

WAS A BIT SURPRISED TO GET REPORTS OF DRIZZLE BEHIND THE LAKE
BREEZE N CENTRAL ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT IN OUR MOIST ENVIRO
IT MAKES SENSE. ADDED DRIZZLE INITIALLY...AND INCREASED THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH ALL THE
HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD IT/S DIFFICULT TO SEE THE FOG EXTENT. LUCKILY
THE AREA WEBCAMS HAVE BEEN HELPFUL.

THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP REMAINS NEARLY STEADY-STATE AND SLOWLY
EXITING ACROSS IRON COUNTY. EXPECT THIS TO PUSH PACK E SLIGHTLY AS
THE SFC LOW OVER KS/IA SHIFTS GETS CLOSER /ALONG THE WI/IL BORDER BY
06Z FRIDAY...AND S LAKE MI BY DAYBREAK. PW VALUES MAX OUT AROUND
1.5IN OVER FAR S MENOMINEE COUNTY FROM 03-09Z FRIDAY. UNDER PLENTY
OF CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND E...TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN
THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S.

AT THAT POINT A QUICKER EXIT TO THE PRECIP LOOKS REASONABLE.
THE SFC LOW WILL MAKE ITS WAY TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING THE
DAY AS THE LARGE HIGH TO OUR N BUILDS DRY AIR INTO UPPER MI. WARMED
UP THE TEMPS FOR TOMORROW BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES CWA WIDE UNDER N-
NE WINDS AROUND 12KTS OR LESS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2015

THE PRECIPITATION THAT WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WILL HAVE DEPARTED THE AREA BY
THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. BEHIND THAT PRECIPITATION...AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN INTO SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A 1018MB
HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN SHIFT TO THE
EAST ON SATURDAY. WITH CLEARING SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW
(ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH)...SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER
LIGHT WINDS. PWAT VALUES ONLY FALL TO AROUND 0.4IN...SO DON/T
EXPECT LOWS TO FALL ENOUGH TO LEAD TO FROST CONCERNS...BUT STILL
THINK SOME OF THE TRADITIONAL COLD RAWS SITES TO FALL TO OR JUST
BELOW 40 DEGREES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LOWS IN THE REST OF THE AREA
TO BE IN THE 40S.

SATURDAY WILL BE A NICE DAY ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY. THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES QUICKLY RISE
INTO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZES
OFF BOTH LAKE SUPERIOR/MICHIGAN WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR
THOSE SHORELINES A LITTLE COOLER. DO EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO
START LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

THAT SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION...WILL QUICKLY LIFT NORTHEAST AND THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.
MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
WAVE...ALONG WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH INTO THE
AREA (PWATS RISING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES)...ALTHOUGH THERE CONTINUES
TO BE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION.
WITH THE CONSISTENCY OF THE MODELS IN MOVING THIS PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE U.P....WILL TREND THE POPS UP (GREATEST OVER THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA) FOR SUNDAY AND INCLUDE A BETTER ESTIMATE
ON THE TIMING. WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE SURGING INTO THE
AREA...DEFINITELY THINK SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE...BUT
FORTUNATELY THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FAIRLY
QUICKLY. THINK THUNDER WILL LARGELY BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST
PART OF THE CWA AND ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCES AT THIS TIME
(WHICH MAY END UP BEING OVERDONE).

BEHIND THAT WAVE OF PRECIPITATION...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BECOME WESTERLY FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...AS THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY COMING ONSHORE OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA MOVES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK. THAT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS FOR
MONDAY/TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA.
LAKE SUPERIOR COULD BE BRUSHED BY A FEW SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLIPS BY THE AREA...BUT IT APPEARS
THAT THE MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
RAIN NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO COME ON WEDNESDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE PULLS
OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION. SURPRISINGLY AT THIS POINT IN THE
FORECAST...THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE TIMING/TRACK
OF THE WAVE...SO WILL TREND POPS UP INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THAT MOVES THROUGH. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA AND LEAD TO A DRY DAY
ON THURSDAY. AS FOR TEMPS NEXT WEEK...THE WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD LEAD
TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY...THEN FALLING TO BELOW
NORMAL VALUES FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND BACK TOWARDS
NORMAL VALUES FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 748 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2015

SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KCMX AND KSAW TONIGHT...SO ADDED THAT TO THE
FORECAST. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2015

EXPECT PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG INTO FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE E HALF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 25KTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY SHIFT OUT OF THE AREA AS LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS S LAKE MI. THE
LOW WILL MOVE OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY MORNING AS A LARGE HIGH
MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE RIDGE WILL EXIT TO THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES SUNDAY NIGHT. A LOW OVER S WI SUNDAY MORNING WILL MERGE INTO
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH NEAR JAMES BAY ON MONDAY. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
E THROUGH MONDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...AND SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...TITUS
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...KF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

154 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING
TRIGGERING A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL DRY
OUT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT... BUT MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BY LATE THURSDAY AND
ESPECIALLY FOR FRIDAY AS THE FRONT RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

APPEARS MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE THROUGH. NOW WITH A
WESTERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY STABILIZE.
THE FRONT WILL LINGER NEAR I-94 FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND
COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE CONVECTION. KEEP CHANCE POPS
THERE...MAINLY FOR MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER S CNTL AND SE
LWR MI ALONG THE EASTWARD MOVING H8 WARM FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM
ROUGHLY NRN LK MI SE TOWARD THE DETROIT AREA. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD
BE MOSTLY EAST OF LAN/JXN EARLY THIS MORNING ON THE NOSE OF A 40 KT
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET AND IN AREA OF MU CAPE OF 500-750 J/KG.
HOWEVER THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS WISCONSIN
COMES IN QUICKLY AFTER 6 AM AND THIS SHOULD ALSO HAVE A FEW SHOWERS
OR STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT PER LATEST SHORT RANGE HRRR SOLUTIONS.

THE COLD FRONT TIMES THROUGH THE GRR AREA BY NOON THEN
SLOWS/STALLS ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF I-94 FOR THIS AFTERNOON. A
WEST-EAST BAND OF DIURNAL SFC BASED STORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP/INTENSIFY ALONG THE FRONT... ALTHOUGH BASED ON THE LOW
LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WHICH DEVELOPS OVER WRN LWR MI BEHIND THE
FRONT AND LACK OF SFC CONVERGENCE... SUSPECT THIS ACTIVITY WILL
BECOME ORIENTED JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA ALONG THE MI/IND BORDER
AFTER 3 PM. WILL KEEP LOW CHC POPS FROM AZO TO JXN THIS AFTERNOON
OTHERWISE WILL GO DRY/SUNNY BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE TREND WITH THE FRIDAY SYSTEM IS TO TAKE THE AXIS OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL FARTHER NORTH INTO NRN LWR MI. HOWEVER THIS COULD LEAD TO
AN INCREASED SVR WX THREAT FOR SRN LWR MI SINCE WE GET MORE FIRMLY
INTO THE WARM SECTOR WITH SFC DEW PTS NEAR 70 AND SFC BASED CAPES
EXCEEDING 1500 J/KG...OR MORE DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF SFC HEATING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY UNSETTLED
WITH PLENTY OF CHCS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE
WILL SEE TEMPERATURES HOLD AROUND AVERAGE LEVELS THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD.

WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME RESIDUAL STORM CHCS LINGERING INTO FRI
EVENING AFTER POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER ON FRI. THE SUPPORTING UPPER
WAVE AND SFC LOW WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AT 00Z SAT AND THEN SLIPPING NE
OF THE AREA THEREAFTER. FAR SERN AREAS COULD EVEN SEE A FEW SHOWERS
ON SAT MORNING...HOWEVER MOST OF THE PCPN SHOULD COME TO A BRIEF END
FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON SAT.

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN PCPN ON SAT NIGHT...STORM CHCS WILL INCREASE
ON SUN AND PEAK SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING ONCE AGAIN. AN
ESTABLISHED BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN STATES WILL SETUP A SW FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WE WILL SEE ANOTHER BETTER DEFINED SHORT
WAVE EJECT FROM THE BROAD TROUGH AND HEAD TOWARD THE AREA. WE COULD
SNEAK INTO THE WARM SECTOR ONCE AGAIN...BRINGING A CHC FOR SOME
SEVERE WX TO THE AREA ALONG WITH A HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH PCPN CHCS THEN FOR THE MON AND TUE
TIME FRAME. WE WILL SEE THE LATE SUN WAVE MOVE BY...WHICH SHOULD
PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR A BIT. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS HOWEVER THAT YET ANOTHER WAVE COULD MOVE ALONG THE
STALLED OUT FRONT ON TUE BRINGING MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
AREA. WE WILL HAVE A CHC FOR THOSE DAYS...AND MONITOR THE POTENTIAL
OF HAVING TO BOOST THE CHCS. HEAVY RAINFALL COULD BECOME A BIGGER
PLAYER WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MORNING CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE CLEARED OUT OF THE AREA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES NOW PREVAILING. THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...BUT THEY
SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE I-94 TAF SITES.

CANNOT RULE OUT SOME FOG TONIGHT...BUT CHANCE SEEMED TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY TRY
TO STREAM IN OVERNIGHT...BUT BASES WILL BE ABOVE 20000FT. THURSDAY
MORNING...AFTER 12Z...CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD BACK IN FROM
THE SOUTH AND WEST...WITH BASES IN THE 5000-10000FT RANGE.

GUSTY WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL TAPER THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET.

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1142 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

WILL ALLOW THE LAKE HEADLINES TO EXPIRE AT NOON. SW WINDS WERE
ALREADY DIMINISHING AND WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT TO THE WEST
ALLOWING WAVES TO SUBSIDE. IT WILL REMAIN A BIT CHOPPY BUT THE
TREND WILL BE LOWERING TO 1 TO 2 FEET BY LATE AFTERNOON.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1149 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015

THERE ARE NO IMMEDIATE CONCERNS ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS. THERE
MAY BE IMPACTFUL PRECIPITATION LATER IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN POSSIBLE.

PERIODIC CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE FIRST WAVE IS VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
WILL MAINLY BE FOCUSED THROUGH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE NEAR/NORTH
OF BALDWIN...REED CITY AND HARRISON. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A PREVIOUSLY DEVELOPED COMPLEX FROM WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER
PENINSULA. IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT GETS INTO THE DRIER
AIR FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA IS LESS LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY STRONGER STORMS.

THE NEXT WAVE MAY BE MORE SIGNIFICANT FRIDAY WITH INCREASING PWAT
VALUES TO AROUND 2 INCHES AND GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION.
THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE A KEY PLAYER IN
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN SETS UP. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL END UP OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BUT DECENT
RAIN AMOUNTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE CWA. THIS BOUNDARY MAY SAG
SOUTHWARD A BIT BY SUNDAY...BRINGING YET ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVIER
RAIN THROUGH THE AREA.

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JK
SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...JK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

1229 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

.AVIATION...

WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO INHIBIT DIURNAL CU
DEVELOPMENT, A TREND WHICH SHOULD MORE OR LESS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING. OPPORTUNITY FOR FEW-SCT COVERAGE AROUND 5KFT BY MID-AFTN
WITH HIGHEST PROABILITY INVOF KMBS. LOW PROBABILITY FOR A TSTORM IN
THE DETROIT AREA BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS VERY LOW AND HIGH COVERAGE
IS NOT EXPECTED. THUS, NO MENTION OF TSTORM IN THE FORECAST. GUSTY
SW WINDS TO AROUND 30 MPH WILL VEER TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT BEFORE SUBSIDING WITH NOCTURNAL DECOUPLING THIS EVENING.

FOR DTW...VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR A TSTORM MAINLY 20-23Z TIME
WINDOW. BEST CHANCE WILL BE NEAR THE OHIO BORDER. AREA SATELLITE
REVEALS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
PARTIAL COVERAGE OF DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL CLOUD AROUND 7KFT. MENTION
OF SCT050 BY LATE AFTN REMAINS WARRANTED BUT CONFIDENCE IN CIG
DEVELOPMENT IS LOW.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILING AOB 5KFT

* LOW CONFIDENCE THAT A TSTORM WILL IMPACT KDTW AIRSPACE

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1203 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

UPDATE...

PLUME OF STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THAT SUPPORTED MORNING
CONVECTION IS RAPIDLY SHIFTING EAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE
FORECAST BY THE RAP TO CONTINUE DIMINISHING TO BELOW 6C/KM OVER THE
NEXT 4-5 HOURS AS GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES GET UNDERWAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW
IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW ENTERING CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN HAS ALLOWED T/TD TO RISE TO AROUND 80/65 ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. THIS STRONGLY SUPPORTS THE GOING FORECAST OF MID/UPPER 80S
WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO AT LEAST THE MID 60S. THE 20-00Z PEAK
HEATING PERIOD WILL SEE MLCAPE INCREASE TO 1500-2500 BETWEEN I-96
AND THE OHIO BORDER...HIGHEST SOUTH. NO CHANGE IN THINKING WITH
REGARD TO SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH A LEGITIMATE HAIL/WIND THREAT
EXISTING CONDITIONAL ON DEVELOPMENT WHICH REMAINS UNCERTAIN. TO THE
END OF GETTING A BETTER HOLD ON EML/CAPPING FOR BOTH MESOANALYSIS
AND 18Z MODEL INGESTION DTX WILL LAUNCH AN 18Z RAOB. ALL-IN-ALL A
NICE, IF A BIT HUMID, SUMMER DAY UNFOLDING SAVE FOR THE LATE AFTN
SEVERE THREAT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 355 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

CONVECTIVE TRENDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST STARTING IMMEDIATELY BEFORE SUNRISE AND LASTING THROUGH
THIS EVENING UNTIL THE COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH OF THE OHIO BORDER.
THE MOST FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE BEST COMBINATION OF COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORMS IS SHAPING UP TO BE DURING THE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY LESS COVERAGE BUT STILL
A CONDITIONAL THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.

THE 00Z DTX SOUNDING SETS THE STAGE FOR THE EARLY MORNING/NOCTURNAL
TRENDS. IT SHOWS SOME TEMPORARY CAPPING WARMTH JUST ABOVE 700 MB DUE
TO SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING SHORT WAVE RIDGE AND DRY
AIR FROM THERE TO THE TROPOPAUSE...GOOD FOR STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
ALOFT JUST DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH LOW TO
MID LEVEL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES THAT ARE GENERATING INSTABILITY
OVERHEAD AT PRESS TIME AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE
MORNING. THE 00Z GRB SOUNDING PREVIEWS THE INITIAL STAGES AND
SUPPORTS MODEL DEPICTIONS OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM IN THE
700-500 MB LAYER...AS WELL AS MOISTURE ADVECTION BELOW 700
MB...INDICATED TO ARRIVE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN
BETWEEN 2 AM AND 8 AM. USING 850 LI AROUND -3 IN THE GFS AND RAP TO
AS LOW AS -5 IN THE NAM SUGGESTS IMPRESSIVE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING AS THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE IS DRIVEN THROUGH THE
REGION BY THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND RESULTING LARGE MID LEVEL CAPE
DENSITY...ALONG WITH A STRONG WIND FIELD INCREASING TO ABOUT 45
KNOTS AT 500 MB WILL MAKE LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY HAZARD INITIALLY
AND THEN BOTH HAIL AND WIND FOR ANY CONVECTION THAT CAN BECOME
SURFACE BASED BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE EARLY PHASE OF THIS EVENT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD WITH THE UPPER
WAVE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH ATTENTION THEN TURNING TO THE COLD
FRONT FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. POCKETS OF CONVECTION
WITH DECREASING COVERAGE WILL LIKELY TRAIL NE TO SW FROM THE EARLY
DAY ACTIVITY ALONG THE COLD FRONT DURING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
DURING THIS TIME...LARGER SCALE SUPPORT WILL BECOME LESS FAVORABLE
DUE TO WAKE SUBSIDENCE IN THE MID LEVELS FOLLOWING THE SHORT WAVE
EXIT INTO ONTARIO AND UNDER THE RIGHT EXIT REGION/SOUTH FLANK OF THE
UPPER JET. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT INDICATING 500 MB TEMPS
WARMING FROM NEAR -12C DURING THE MORNING TO NEAR -7C BY 00Z THIS
EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE PARCELS CLOSE TO BEING CAPPED
IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER...BUT NOT CONVINCINGLY. THE LATEST RAP
OFFERS CAPE AROUND 2500 J/KG FOR ANY UPDRAFT THAT CAN BECOME
ESTABLISHED WITH A SURFACE PARCEL IN THE UPPER 80S/UPPER 60S. THE
FORECAST GIVES STORMS A CHANCE TO FORM WITH A 40 POP NEAR THE OHIO
BORDER LATE IN THE DIURNAL CYCLE THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. CONDITIONAL
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE MORE DUE TO WIND THAN HAIL AS FREEZING
LEVEL REACHES NEAR 14000 FT AND 0-6 KM SHEAR REMAINS NEAR 35 KNOTS.

LONG TERM...

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE MICHIGAN
BORDER DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...AS WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE
SURFACE HOLDS OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. 850 MB TEMPS CLIMBING
INTO THE MID TEENS SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH WEAK WIND FIELD WILL PROMOTE LAKE BREEZES.

UPPER LEVEL ENERGY/JET COMING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
TODAY...INTERACTING WITH PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH...WITH SURGE OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE OUT OF AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL
TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT. MODELS
ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE
SYSTEM...SETTING US UP FOR A POTENTIAL DRY SATURDAY...BUT IT REMAINS
A CLOSE CALL AND CHANCE POPS WILL CONTINUE AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE DIFFICULT TO DISLODGE.

BEFORE WE GET TO SATURDAY...PLENTY OF RAIN EXPECTED WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAKING OUT AROUND 2 INCHES...700 MB DEW
PTS OF 5 TO 6 C...AND 850 MB DEW PTS OF 15 C OR SLIGHTLY BETTER BY
FRIDAY EVENING. WILL HAVE TO BE CAUTIOUS ON FRIDAY...AS WE PUNCH
INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND POTENTIALLY GENERATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
TAP INTO THE 45 TO 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JETS AT 850/700 MB WORKING
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN LATE IN THE DAY. ALSO...0-1 KM BULK SHEAR
LOOKS TO BE RUNNING A CONCERNING 25 KNOTS OR SLIGHTLY
BETTER...ULTIMATELY DEPENDENT ON STRENGTH OF THE LOW TRACKING
THROUGH MICHIGAN. MLCAPES PROGGED TO BE RUNNING 1000 J/KG OR
SLIGHTLY HIGHER...AND THUS NEED TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER...IN ADDITION TO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. FRIDAY LOOKS TO
BE VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY AS 850 MB TEMPS RISE TO 17-18 C
(SUPPORTING SOLID 80S IF RAIN IS SLOW TO DEVELOP)...WITH DEW PTS
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.

MARINE...

STRONG SOUTHWEST GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ALONG
THE NEARSHORE WATERS AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. POST
FRONTAL WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING DO NOT LOOK AS
STRONG...AND WINDS WILL BECOME VERY LIGHT LATE TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA...PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY. A
MOISTURE LADEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH ON
FRIDAY...TRIGGERING HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE LOW
TRACK THROUGH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN...COULD SEE SOUTHWEST WINDS
REACH BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER LAKE ST CLAIR AND WESTERN LAKE
ERIE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR.

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ421-422-
441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ444.

AVIATION.....JVC
UPDATE.......JVC
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

1203 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

.UPDATE...

PLUME OF STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THAT SUPPORTING MORNING
CONVECTION IS RAPIDLY SHIFTING EAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE
FORECAST BY THE RAP TO CONTINUE DIMINISHING TO BELOW 6C/KM OVER THE
NEXT 4-5 HOURS AS GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES GET UNDERWAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW
IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW ENTERING CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN HAS ALLOWED T/TD TO RISE TO AROUND 80/65 ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. THIS STRONGLY SUPPORTS THE GOING FORECAST OF MID/UPPER 80S
WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO AT LEAST THE MID 60S. THE 20-00Z PEAK
HEATING PERIOD WILL SEE MLCAPE INCREASE TO 1500-2500 BETWEEN I-96
AND THE OHIO BORDER...HIGHEST SOUTH. NO CHANGE IN THINKING WITH
REGARD TO SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH A LEGITIMATE HAIL/WIND THREAT
EXISTING CONDITIONAL ON DEVELOPMENT WHICH REMAINS UNCERTAIN. TO THE
END OF GETTING A BETTER HOLD ON EML/CAPPING FOR BOTH MESOANALYSIS
AND 18Z MODEL INGESTION DTX WILL LAUNCH AN 18Z RAOB. ALL-IN-ALL A
NICE, IF A BIT HUMID, SUMMER DAY UNFOLDING SAVE FOR THE LATE AFTN
SEVERE THREAT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

.AVIATION...ISSUED 703 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTING NEAR 30 KNOTS WILL CARRY WARMER AND MORE
HUMID AIR INTO SE MICHIGAN WHICH WILL FUEL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS
THAT WILL AFFECT THE ENTIRE TERMINAL CORRIDOR DURING THE MORNING.
THE CHANCE OF STORMS WILL THEN BE CONFINED TO ALONG A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL SETTLE NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON COVERAGE DURING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE SO UPDATES WILL BE NEEDED FOR ADDITIONS AND REFINEMENTS ON
THUNDERSTORM DETAIL AS THE DAY UNFOLDS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
TAKE OVER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A MIX OF HIGH
CLOUDS MAKING UP VFR CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND SOME
SHALLOW/LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE.

FOR DTW... A COUPLE TIME WINDOWS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY.
THE FIRST DURING MID TO LATE MORNING IN GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND AND THE
SECOND DURING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THE PLAN IS TO CARRY THE
MORNING STORMS AND THEN ADD AFTERNOON DETAILS WITH UPDATES DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY ON COVERAGE ALONG THE FRONT.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MODERATE FOR CEILING OF 5000 FT OR LESS TODAY WITH
THUNDERSTORMS.

* MODERATE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MORNING. LOW DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 355 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

LONG TERM...

MARINE...

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ421-422-
441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ444.

UPDATE.......JVC
AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

1142 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 749 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS MORNING HAVE HIGH CLOUD BASES
AND THE RAIN WILL BE VERY BRIEF IN DURATION IF THEY IMPACT THE
TERMINALS. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT THE CONDITIONS IN THE TAFS VFR WITH
ONLY A VCTS REMARK.

THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATER
THIS MORNING... WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL TURN WEST AND
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON THEN BECOME NEAR CALM THIS
EVENING. THIS MAY ALLOW SOME LIGHT/MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT.

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1142 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1149 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015

THERE ARE NO IMMEDIATE CONCERNS ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS. THERE
MAY BE IMPACTFUL PRECIPITATION LATER IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN POSSIBLE.

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MIZ037-043-050-
056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LMZ844>849.

UPDATE...JK
SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...JK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

749 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 749 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

WILL CONTINUE THE SHORT DURATION SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND BEACH
HAZARD STATEMENT THIS MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET IMPACTS LK MI
AHEAD OF APCHG SFC COLD FRONT. MKG IS CURRENTLY CURRENTLY GUSTING
OVER 25 KTS. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP OVER THE LAKE LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS THE WINDS DIMINISH.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1149 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015

THERE ARE NO IMMEDIATE CONCERNS ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS. THERE
MAY BE IMPACTFUL PRECIPITATION LATER IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN POSSIBLE.

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MIZ037-043-050-
056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LMZ844>849.

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...MEADE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

703 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

.AVIATION...

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MODERATE FOR CEILING OF 5000 FT OR LESS TODAY WITH
THUNDERSTORMS.

* MODERATE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MORNING. LOW DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 355 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

LONG TERM...

MARINE...

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ421-422-
441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ444.

AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

355 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

.SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

.LONG TERM...

.MARINE...

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1155 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015

MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL STEADILY INCREASE OVERNIGHT
UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A LOW POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...CENTERED BETWEEN 08Z AND
12Z. CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND COVERAGE APPEARS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE ANY SPECIFIC MENTION AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE THIS PROCESS
WILL BRING PERIODIC POCKETS OF THICKER MID CLOUD /CIGS ABOVE 6K
FT/ THROUGH THE MORNING PERIOD. SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH DAYTIME MIXING PROVIDING AN ADDED GUST
COMPONENT INTO THE 25 KNOT RANGE. WINDOW FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT /MAINLY DETROIT CORRIDOR/ LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

FOR DTW...LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM 08Z-12Z WITH
AN ACCOMPANYING REDUCTION IN CEILING AT/BELOW 5000 FT. NO EXPLICIT
INCLUSION IN TAFS ATTM.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR CEILING OF 5000 FT OR LESS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ421-422-
441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ444.

SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....MR

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

330 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

THE COLD FRONT TIMES THROUGH THE GRR BY NOON THEN SLOWS/STALLS ALONG
OR JUST SOUTH OF I-94 FOR THIS AFTERNOON. A WEST-EAST BAND OF
DIURNAL SFC BASED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP/INTENSIFY ALONG THE FRONT...
ALTHOUGH BASED ON THE LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WHICH DEVELOPS OVER
WRN LWR MI BEHIND THE FRONT AND LACK OF SFC CONVERGENCE... SUSPECT
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BECOME ORIENTED JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA ALONG THE
MI/IND BORDER AFTER 3 PM. WILL KEEP LOW CHC POPS FROM AZO TO JXN
THIS AFTERNOON OTHERWISE WILL GO DRY/SUNNY BEHIND THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 152 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR AVIATION INTERESTS WITH THE 06Z FCSTS IS
THE POTENTIAL OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS. SOME
ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED TO OUR WEST EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH THE BIGGEST CONCENTRATION ACROSS UPPER MI. WE
EXPECT THAT POTENTIAL TO MOVE IN OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 4 HOURS FROM
WEST TO EAST. WE ARE NOT SURE THAT THE TERMINALS WILL SEE
PCPN...SO WE HAVE GONE WITH A VCTS FOR NOW.

THERE IS ALSO SOME CONCERN FOR LLWS THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. THE LOW
LEVEL WIND MAX OF AROUND 45 KNOTS AROUND 2-5K FEET WILL BE COMING
OVERHEAD. IT DOES SEEM THAT ENOUGH WIND AT THE SFC WILL LIMIT THE
DIFFERENCE/SHEAR...SO WE HAVE OPTED TO NOT MENTION IT FOR THE TIME
BEING.

ANY STORMS THAT DO POP UP AROUND THE AREA THIS MORNING SHOULD BE
MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY 17Z AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA. SKIES
SHOULD THEN CLEAR OUT AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH.

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

WILL CONTINUE THE SHORT DURATION SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS MORNING
AS LOW LEVEL JET IMPACTS LK MI AHEAD OF APCHG SFC COLD FRONT. MKG IS
CURRENTLY CURRENTLY GUSTING OVER 25 KTS.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1149 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015

THERE ARE NO IMMEDIATE CONCERNS ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS. THERE
MAY BE IMPACTFUL PRECIPITATION LATER IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN POSSIBLE.

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LMZ844>849.

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...MEADE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

153 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 928 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015

...SEVERE TS THREAT FOR UPR MI SEEMS TO BE DIMINISHING...

LTG ASSOCIATED WITH CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/TS OVER NE MN MOVING QUICKLY
INFO FAR NW LK SUP REMAINS RATHER LIMITED. RAP/SPC ANALYSIS
INDICATES MUCAPE IS LIMITED OVER WRN LK SUP/UPR MI...NO MORE THAN
250-500 J/KG. RESPONSIBLE FACTORS INCLUDE WARM MID LVL TEMPS/INVRN
ARND H6 SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB AND LIMITED MSTR INFLOW INTO THE
AREA. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WL NOT BE FAVORABLE AS WELL. AS A
RESULT...SPC HAS DOWNGRADED THE SVR TS RISK FOR UPR MI TO MARGINAL.
HOWEVER...DEEP 0-6KM WIND SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE...AS HI AS 40 TO
45 KTS. WITH WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE/HI DCAPE AOA 1000 J/KG ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE WI BORDER...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VERY GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY
STRONGER CELLS THAT MOVE INTO UPR MI. BUT THE OVERALL SVR THREAT
APPEARS TO BE MORE LIMITED THAN EARLIER EXPECTED.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015

A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVER NWRN ONTARIO WILL MOVE
ACROSS NRN ONTARIO TONIGHT AND WED. A SECOND SHORTWAVE OVER THE
MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER WILL DIVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AT
THE SAME TIME THAT A SFC FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

PRECIP DEVELOPED OVER MN AND FAR NWRN WI THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...BUT DISSIPATED BEFORE IT MOVED WEST INTO THE CWA. IT
APPEARS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS TOO LOW AND CIN TOO HIGH FOR
MEANINGFUL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITHOUT MORE SIGNIFICANT FORCING.
THAT FORCING IS EXPECTED TO BE MET AS THE SHORTWAVE AND FRONT MOVE
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW MLCAPES
DECREASING WITH A LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT
THEN INCREASING TO 700-1200J/KG OVER THE WRN HALF OF UPPER MI AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES IN. MODELS ALSO SHOW DCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF
1000J/KG OVER THE WRN HALF. THE SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO INCREASE THE
SHEAR...WITH STRONG 0-1KM BULK SHEAR OF 25-35KTS AND BOTH 0-3KM AND
0-6KM SHEAR OF 40-50KTS. CONDITIONS APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS AND GOOD COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OR TWO MOVING THROUGH (OR AT LEAST ALONG THE
EDGES) OF THE CWA. WHILE THE FORECAST IS EXTREMELY DEPENDENT ON
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND PROPAGATION...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS OF
THE HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE /ESPECIALLY THE HRRR AND NAM-DNG)...AND
EVEN THE LOWER-RES GFS AND ECMWF...SEEM TO BE ON A REASONABLE TRACK
OF SHOWING A CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING OVER FAR NRN LAKE SUPERIOR
(CLOSER TO THE MAIN SHORTWAVE) AND ANOTHER MOVING ESE THROUGH THE
U.P. PARALLEL TO THE CAPE GRADIENT. CONSIDERING EXPECTED STORM MODE
BEING A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AND AFOREMENTIONED INGREDIENTS...THINK
THAT DAMAGING WIND IS THE GREATEST THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE
STORMS...WITH THE SECONDARY THREAT GIVEN SHEAR AND INSTABILITY AND
MAYBE A WEAK TORNADO IF ANY FAVORABLE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR.
AGAIN...THE SEVERE THREAT IS VERY CONDITIONAL ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND
EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION. ANY CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES SHOULD BE
DECAYING AS THEY MOVE TO THE E...SHOULD SEVERE THREAT IS LOWER OVER
THE ERN U.P.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE W ON WED WILL LEAD TO CLEARING
CONDITIONS...WITH HIGHS IN HE 60S AND 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015

FOG OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE ON THE DIMINISHING TREND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS THE SFC LOW ACROSS W QUEBEC EXITS E AND THE SFC TROUGH
EXTENDING W THROUGH N LAKE SUPERIOR AT 00Z THURSDAY SLOWLY EDGES E.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

MEANWHILE...THE SFC LOW OVER KS AT 12Z THURSDAY WILL PUSH TO THE S
WI/IN BORDER AT 18Z FRIDAY. THICK CLOUDS WILL PUSH OVER THE
AREA...HELPING TO KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING MUCH PAST THE MID TO UPPER
60S /WITH EVEN SOME 50S RIGHT FROM THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA
E THROUGH WHITEFISH POINT/. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY RAIN OVER
S CENTRAL UPPER MI DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...AT SOME POINT BETWEEN 09-
20Z. LOWER CONFIDENCE REMAINS...AS THE MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY BETWEEN
NO PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA /12Z NAM/ TO THE ECMWF AND GFS WHICH HAVE
OVER AN INCH OVER FAR S CENTRAL UPPER MI NEAR MNM. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A MODEL BLENDED SOLUTION...WITH OVER HALF AN INCH OF RAIN
POSSIBLE S OF A LINE FROM IMT TO ESC...AND OVER 1IN NEAR MNM. WITH
DRIER E WINDS AT THE SFC MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND FAR N UPPER MI
WILL REMAIN EITHER DRY OR WITH A WHOLE LOT LESS PRECIP. EXPECT A
QUICK CUT OFF AS THE SFC LOW ELONGATES ACROSS LOWER MI AND THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE 500MB
RIDGE OVER THE MID MS VALLEY WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT...AND LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY.

EXPECT INCREASED SW FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF THE 500MB LOW OVER S
CENTRAL CANADA SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...AS THE LOW SHIFTS NE INTO
HUDSON BAY MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT IT WILL MAINLY MEAN ZONAL FLOW. WHILE
THE CANADIAN IS MORE TO THE S AND QUICKER TO BRING THE SFC
LOW/TROUGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE SLOWER
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS LOOK MORE REASONABLE. WILL KEEP THE CWA RAIN
FREE UNTIL THE DAYTIME HOURS SUNDAY. TS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE 12Z GFS LOOKS TO HAVE SHIFTED THE BEST
MOISTURE/STRONG THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TO OUR S.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 152 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

SHOWERS AND TS IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG COLD FNT WILL IMPACT SAW EARLY
IN THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS MAIN THREAT. FOLLOWING THE COLD FROPA
BY ABOUT 08Z AT SAW...A STEADY WNW WIND WL TURN GUSTY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING ON WED. BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES AND ALLOWS FOR VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE ON WED...SOME UPSLOPE LO CLDS/MVFR OR EVEN
IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AT IWD AND ESPECIALLY CMX. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015 (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR
FORECAST ISSUANCE)

WINDS WILL REMAIN 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOG
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LAKE INTO WED AS A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS
MOVES OVER THE COLD GREAT LAKES WATER AND REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...TITUS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO

1221 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 358 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

Today/Tonight: A hot and humid day is on tap for the forecast area
today. With mostly sunny skies and a 23C H85 thermal axis over the
area, expect highs to reach the lower to middle 90s. When factoring
in the humidity, heat indices may climb to 100 degrees in some
areas. This is relatively noteworthy considering it`s one of the
first days of heat indices this high.

Other than the heat, attention will then turn to convective
potential later today/tonight. A weak cold front currently analyzed
from central Nebraska into northwest Iowa will slowly slide south
and become quasi-stationary near the Iowa/Missouri border by late
afternoon. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to form
along/in the vicinity of this frontal boundary, although model
solutions vary on the timing and coverage of convection. The HRRR is
one of the earliest CI solutions, developing storms by mid-
afternoon. This is likely in response to very warm surface
temperatures, approaching 100 degrees along the boundary, and
likewise reaches convective temperature quickly. Other solutions are
more delayed which seems reasonable, and tend to believe isolated
thunderstorms may develop along the front between 5-7pm as low-level
convergence and eroding surface inhibition commence. As for the
severe weather potential, moderate to extreme instability will reside
along the boundary. The saving grace to help mitigate a notable
severe weather event will be the lack of deep layer shear. While
SBCAPE may exceed 4000 J/KG, bulk shear will generally be around 10
kts, owing to shorter-lived and less organized storms as a whole.
Will have to watch late this afternoon/evening carefully, as
instability this high can allow strong updrafts to occasionally
compensate during short periods of time for the lack of deep layer
shear. The most probable area for convection and attendant severe
weather will be north of Highway 36. The threat for severe weather
tonight will gradually decrease as the loss of maximum diurnal
instability is lost and the frontal boundary slowly lifts to the
north of the area.

Thursday: Run-to-run consistency has been good lately depicting a
lead upper wave to move through Kansas during the early morning hours
on Thursday. In fact, thunderstorms may initially develop over
western Kansas from this impulse overnight and track eastward across
portions of Kansas, maintained by a strong low-level jet. However,
the time of arrival of these storms and the likely cold pool struggle
suggests that maintenance of this convection into our forecast area
is much more uncertain by sunrise Thursday. The highest probability
will be over NW MO, closer to the track of the upper wave. Much of
Thursday is then expected to be dry, with temperatures once again
reaching the 90s in the cloud-free areas. A secondary wave will
rotate in on the backside of the lead wave and move across Iowa
Thursday night. This wave and its associated cold front will be the
focus for another round of thunderstorms Thursday afternoon/evening
initially just to our northwest. As the cold front approaches, strong
low-level forcing and upper ascent should allow for thunderstorms to
develop and move into far NW MO by sunset. The potential for severe
weather will exist with this storms, with moderate instability on the
order of 2500 J/KG and bulk shear of 30 kts. Furthermore, shear
vectors are initially somewhat perpendicular to the boundary, perhaps
delaying an immediate onset to a squall line. Thunderstorms will move
southeast/eastward overnight, but may eventually have trouble
remaining well-organized and become lesser in coverage as the
strongest ascent quickly moves off to the north/east, instability
wanes, and the low-level jet notably veers, likely favoring
convection over Kansas.

Friday into next week: The aforementioned frontal boundary will slide
through much of the CWA before stalling on Friday, but will provide
a cooler day. There may be a window for dry weather during the day,
and if so, may allow for a nice day. However, the boundary will lift
back north Friday night, setting the stage for more active weather.
Southwesterly flow aloft becomes established from the Southern
Plains northeastward into the Missouri Valley during this period,
with several upper waves projected to parade through the forecast
area. Additionally, the quasi-stationary cold front is expected to
reside over/near the CWA into the weekend, aiding in a focus for
convection coupled with the ascent from the upper disturbances. The
signal is such that multiple rounds of thunderstorms and attendant
heavy rainfall potential will exist over portions of the CWA. The
general theme of established southwest flow persisting over the
region suggests that additional chances of rain will exist during
early next week. The potential for flooding may exist if multiple
rounds of rain fall over the same areas. Currently, areas with the
highest risk of heavy rainfall will be across the NW half of the
forecast area, where basin averages of 2-4 inches of rain could fall
during the seven-day forecast period. As with forecasted convection
well in advance, much uncertainty exists with specific rainfall
amounts and locations. Daily high temperatures will remain much
cooler with the expected cloud cover and rainfall, with highs in the
70s and lower 80s.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

Scattered storms expected to develop near the MO/IA border this
afternoon. There is a slight chance some of these could develop south
enough to impact the KC area this afternoon but these chances are
only 20 percent or less. Otherwise dry weather expected most of the
TAF period with storm chances returning tomorrow afternoon.

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Hawblitzel

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO

547 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 358 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 544 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

VFR conditions expected through the period. Southwest to south winds
AOB 12kts will prevail. Thunderstorms are expected to be located well
north/west of terminals during the evening/overnight period.

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Blair

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO

406 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 358 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015

VFR conditions will persist through the next 24 hours. A scattered
mid-level cloud layer will cross into the area early Wednesday
morning and could see increasing clouds toward the end of the period,
though currently thinking this will remain north of the terminal
sites. There is a chance for convective activity to develop
well north along the Missouri/Iowa border Wednesday afternoon and
evening, so have held off including in forecast for now as any
activity that develops will then move northeast.

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Welsh

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

1145 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 909 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2015

Have pushed off slight chance of isolated thunderstorms over
northeast Missouri and west central Illinois to well after
midnight. This is when the latest runs of the RAP shows some
moisture convergence developing in the 925-850mb layer about the
same time a weak shortwave will move southeastward out of the
upper Midwest. Otherwise going forecast looks good as the winds
have turned light out of the south under mainly clear skies. Going
lows are close to current dewpoints.

Britt

.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2015

Secondary cold front will continue to progress southeast this
evening with wind becoming northwest in its wake. Line of showers
and thunderstorms aligned with the front will weaken throughout the
evening with loss of daytime heating. Temperatures will be cooler
tonight with lows generally in the 60s.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2015

(Wednesday - Thursday)

Still looking like a reasonable chance for "sunrise surprise"
convection with the mid-level WAA field ahead of the front Wednesday
morning and have kept in the slight chance PoPs over northeast MO
and west-central IL. What does develop will try to push slowly
south but should also dissipate by late morning.

For the rest of the day should then see plenty of sunshine, a
moderate SW surface flow, and a decent cap in place. This should
allow temps to easily surge into the low-mid 90s areawide with some
upper 90s possible in the urban heat island of STL city, likely
giving us our new warmest day of the year. RHs are not anticipated
to be high enough to eclipse the 100F mark on heat index values, but
will be close.

Very high CAPE (> 5000 J/kg) will also develop across northeast MO
and west-central IL immediately ahead of a west-east cold front that
is expected to settle near the MO-IA border by late in the day. At
this point, it appears the cap will weaken sufficiently and the
front will provide enough focus by 00z/Thu that it should be able to
ignite TSRAs by then. What does develop will have sufficient
instability to have the ability to go severe. Bulk shear is weak,
however, at 10kts or less, so pulse storms are anticipated for
convective mode. This will continue into the evening.

A new MCS is expected to develop well to the west during the evening
and then track eastward and should remain to our north, with
maintenance of a low PoP seeming reasonable.

This overall theme is expected to continue into Thursday but with
possibility of convective outflow and debris clouds messing things
up, confidence on PoP and max temp forecast is reduced versus
Wednesday. Trimmed temps a bit from persistence with largest
reductions in the north and minimal for areas near I-70 and south.

(Friday - Next Tuesday)

For the weekend and into early next week, we will see a RIDGE anchor
over the southeastern CONUS, with resultant SW flow, plenty of
moisture thru the column, and regular intrusions of upper level
disturbances and lingering frontal boundaries to warrant above climo
PoPs thru this period. Looks very active, especially in our
northern forecast area, but hard to believe that it won`t trend
southward with time if enough activity gets going.

Temps should be at least seasonal normals, but suspect most days
will be above.

TES

.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2015

Going forecast is on track in that there is still a slight chance
of thunderstorms between 09-13Z over northern MO/west central IL.
However this chance still looks to be too low to include in the
KUIN TAF. This front will become stationary just north of KUIN
and additional thunderstorms may develop along it again on
Wednesday afternoon, but chances again are not high enough to
warrant including them in the TAF. Otherwise, TAFs only reflect
wind shifts and development of cumulus tomorrow morning.

Specifics for KSTL: Dry and VFR conditions are expected through
the TAF period with light south winds turning back southwesterly
by mid morning.

Britt

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS GLASGOW MT

949 AM MDT WED JUN 10 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

SENT AN UPDATE THIS MORNING TO TRY TO INCORPORATE CURRENT RADAR
REFLECTIVITY TRENDS AND THE LATEST SHORT-TERM AND HI-RES MODEL
DATA FOR THE PRECIP FORECAST. EXPECTING SHOWERS TODAY WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WILL LIKELY BE REMOVED SOUTH OF OUR CWA...BUT THE HRRR MODEL
BRINGS SOME DESCENT STORMS TOWARD OUR WESTERN CWA TONIGHT.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY WINDS WILL BE OFF AND ON 20G30 MPH FOR SOME
LOCATIONS. BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...AN INVERTED SURFACE BOUNDARY
ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT PACIFIC MOISTURE AND
A WEAK SHORTWAVE...WERE PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THIS MORNING. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROF DIPS OUT OF SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
SLIDES ALONG THE CANADA BORDER. LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST JET ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS EXTENDS INTO EASTERN MONTANA AND LOOKS TO BE JUST
STRONG ENOUGH AND POSITIONED TO CREATE LAKE WIND
CONDITIONS...MAINLY ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE TODAY.

DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION AS THE CANADIAN SHORTWAVE
DEFLECTS THE PACIFIC MOISTURE SOUTHWARD. RAIN WILL LINGER OVER THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...AND GIVEN RECENT
FLOODING IN THE AREA...STORMS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN MONTANA ON FRIDAY WITH AN
UPPER LOW DROPPING OUT OF ALASKA INTO WESTERN CANADA. WEDGE OF WARMER
AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE TROF. REMNANTS
OF WEAK LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST DRIFTING TOWARD THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL TAKE UP MOST OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE...FOR HOT
AND DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY. EBERT

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT BEGINS WITH A LONG-WAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER ALBERTA
WHICH WILL DRIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. THIS
LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST INTO SASKATCHEWAN ON SATURDAY. MODELS SHOW
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA WHICH
COULD BE THE FOCUS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDER. COOLER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA INTO SUNDAY BRINGING
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO NORMAL.

ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST THAT WILL
DRIVE WAVE THROUGH CALIFORNIA TO BRING ADDITIONAL ABUNDANT
MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL DIVIDE AND INTO MONTANA FOR MONDAY.
HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE A NARROW RIDGE OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST
WILL TEND TO MAINTAIN MOST ENERGY TO OUR SOUTH

AFTER MONDAY THE UNCERTAINTY GROWS ON THE REGIONAL DETAILS. BUT
THE LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW REMAINS OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD CONTINUOUSLY PUMPING PACIFIC MOISTURE
INLAND. THIS LONG-WAVE TROUGHINESS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES...AND SHOWERS WITH THUNDER INTO MID-WEEK. BOTH GFS
AND EC SHOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY TO BE THE BEST FOR POSSIBLE
HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH A LEE SIDE
SURFACE TROUGH. SCT

.AVIATION...

A MEDIUM WAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WITH A
SURFACE LOW IN PLACE TO ESTABLISH WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY...EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. ALL TERMINALS CAN EXPECT PERIODS OF SHOWERS...SOME
BRIEFLY MODERATE OR HEAVY...AND LOWERING MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS NEAR ANY SHOWER OR STORM.

GENERALLY VFR...EXCEPT NEAR STORMS. EXPECT EAST WINDS OF 5-10KT TO
INCREASE TO AROUND 15KT IN THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING TO
AROUND 10KT AFTER SUNSET. SCT/BLM

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR FORT PECK
LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BUFFALO NY

334 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...DRIVING A LINE OF
STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION THURSDAY BRINGING A NICE DAY WITH LESS HUMIDITY BEFORE
MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER ARRIVES FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
REGIONAL RADARS AT 3PM ARE SHOWING A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ORIENTED ALONG AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT WHICH STRETCHES
FROM NEAR OTTAWA SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO AND
FINGER LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ERIE. THESE LEADING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TAPPING INTO ABOUT 500 J/KG OF SBCAPE
WITH 40-50 KTS OF BULK SHEAR ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
PER 19Z SPC MESOANALYSIS. SOME GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

AS THIS ACTIVITY SHIFTS EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AND EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO IT WILL ENCOUNTER A LESS BUOYANT AND SHEARED ENVIRONMENT
SO ACTIVITY WILL STILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED FOR SEVERE THREATS.

A BREAK WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE LEADING ACTIVITY WITH A VERY UNCERTAIN
SEVERE RISK POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT
NOW CROSSING MICHIGAN. RECENT AIRCRAFT SOUNDING FROM UPSTREAM /CYYZ/
SHOW AN INCREASING MID-LEVEL CAP AS A SURGE OF WARM AIR SHIFTS IN
BEHIND THIS AFTERNOONS ACTIVITY. NUMEROUS RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE
SHOWING VERY LIMITED ACTIVITY ALONG THE COLD FRONT LIKELY DUE TO
THIS CAP. THE HRRR DOES BREAK OUT A THIN LINE OF CONVECTION FROM THE
GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD WHILE THE 12Z NSSL WRF AND NAM MODELS ARE
MORE BULLISH WITH A SOLID LINE OF CONVECTION TRACKING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AFTER 00Z. WITH THESE DIFFERENCES HAVE KNOCK BACK POPS
TO LIKELY/HIGH CHANCE RANGE WHILE KEEPING CAT POPS ALONG LAKE
ONTARIO AND EASTWARD WHERE ALL THREE ABOVE MODELS SEEM TO AGREE ON
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT.

KEEPING THE UNCERTAIN DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORM IN
MIND...FORECAST MUCAPE VALUES UP TO AROUND 2000 J/KG WOULD PROVIDE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY FOR STORMS TO FEED ON IF THEY CAN OVERCOME
THIS CAP WITH FORECAST BULK SHEAR ALONG THE FRONT TO AROUND 50 KTS.
A MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY LINER CONVECTION
WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO AS WELL WITH
ACTIVITY ANY CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT LATER THIS EVENING WITH LOW
LEVEL VEERING OF WIND PROFILES AND FORECAST HELICITY VALUES FROM THE
NAM OF OVER 300 M2/SEC2 WITH A FAVORABLE HODOGRAPH SIGNATURE.

THE BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT THIS EVENING SHOULD SHIFT
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WHILE WEAKENING AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO STABILIZE. DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD LIMIT ANY FOG TO RIVER VALLEYS OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL ONLY DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.

THURSDAY...A PUSH OF DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL BRING CLOUD-FREE LOWER LEVELS WITH STREAMERS OF
HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS FOUND AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW STREAKS EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN FLAT RIDGING. WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IN
PLACE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEPING THE LAKE ONTARIO
SHORE COOLER.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
EVENING...THEN IN ITS WAKE...A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM ABOUT
CHI TO CLE WILL STRENGTHEN AND PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST. CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SHOULD STAY TO OUR WEST...ALTHOUGH OUR
FORECAST AREA SHOULD EXPERIENCE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS.

ON FRIDAY...THE WARM FRONT WILL PROCEED TO THE NORTH TO ABOUT LAKE
ONTARIO. WHILE IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT PARTS OF OUR
REGION PICK UP A MORNING SHOWER FROM THE PASSING OF THE FRONT...THE
BULK OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ISENTROPIC FORCING
WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. BY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON...MOST OF
WESTERN NEW YORK SHOULD BE INTO THE WARM SECTOR BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT. WHILE THE BULK OF THE DAY SHOULD BE RAIN FREE...THE MORE
UNSTABLE AIRMASS SHOULD BE ABLE TO SUPPORT AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER IN THE VCNTY OF ANY LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY.
OTHERWISE IT WILL BE WARM DAY WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LAKE
PLAINS REACHING INTO AT LEAST THE MID 80S. SITES EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE 70S...AS CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WARM FRONT SHOULD INHIBIT DIURNAL HEATING.

A SFC WAVE WILL TRACK EAST ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY
NIGHT. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL PUMP
VERY MIST AIR ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH SOME GUIDANCE PACKAGES
SUGGESTING AN INCREASE IN PWAT VALUES TO AROUND 2 INCHES. THIS VERY
MOIST ENVIRONMENT...COMBINED WITH THE FORCING FROM THE PASSING
FRONTAL WAVE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HEAVY RAIN. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH LIKELY POPS WHILE ADDING THE MENTION
OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE PACKAGE.

AS THE WAVE MOVES EAST SATURDAY MORNING...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
SAG SOUTH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TO VIRGINIA. MEANWHILE...A
BURGEONING H5 RIDGE WILL BE FOUND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY WILL EXTEND SOUTH
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGING WILL
ENCOURAGE THE SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTH DURING THE COURSE
OF THE MORNING WITH SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL DRYING LEADING TO
INCREASED SUNSHINE FOR SITES NORTH OF LINE FROM BUFFALO TO
CANANDAIGUA DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SAT AFTERNOON SHOULD
PEAK IN THE UPPER 70S FOR MOST AREAS.

RIDGING WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THIS WILL PROVIDE FAIR DRY WEATHER FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED NEAR THE
PENNSYLVANIA BORDER. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS
PERIOD AS FLAT RIDGING WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST BACK
ACROSS TEXAS...WHILE A NEAR ZONAL FLOW WILL STRADDLE THE CANADIAN
BORDER. THIS WILL KEEP A STEADY DIET OF RELATIVELY STEADY DIET OF
RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AS A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WILL INCREASE POPS TO
HIGH CHC...ALTHOUGH BULK OF THE DAY SHOULD BE RAIN FREE.

THE FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH OF REGION MONDAY NIGHT...SO ANY
EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE DURING THE COURSE OF
THE OVERNIGHT.

WHILE A SECOND COLD FRONT MAY DROP ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY OR
EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT...IT WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
WILL THUS KEEP THAT TIME FRAME MAINLY DRY WITH ONLY SLGT TO LOW CHC
POPS.

THE ECMWF IS DEPICTING A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON OUR SOUTHERN
DOORSTEP WEDNESDAY...SO WILL INCLUDE LOW CHC POPS TO END THE PERIOD
AS WELL.

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 19Z A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS SHIFTING ACROSS
THE FINGER LAKES REGION INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK. VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH
BRIEF MVFR/IFR VIS IN PASSING SHOWERS AND STORMS.

EXPECT A LULL BEHIND THESE LEADING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE REGION THIS EVENING. THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN DEVELOPMENT OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT LATER THIS EVENING DUE TO MIXED
SIGNALS IN VARIOUS NEAR TERM GUIDANCE. IF IN FACT SEVERE STORMS CAN
DEVELOP SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT WITH A RETURN
TO VFR CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR MOST OF THE TIME WITH A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY...BECOMING VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

.MARINE...
A SOUTHWEST BREEZE IS PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS ON THE LAND. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS HAVE FUNNELED UP THE
NIAGARA RIVER AND ACROSS WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO WITH A BRIEF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE WINDS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CHOPPY
2 TO 3 FT WAVES. A LEADING AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO CROSSING
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO WITH GUSTY WINDS.

A HIGHER YET STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN RISK OF SEVERE STORMS MAY COME
THIS EVENING ALONG A COLD FRONT. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
ALONG WITH LIGHTNING. AFTER THIS...EXPECT A RELATIVELY MODEST FLOW
WITH WINDS BELOW 15 KTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ030-042.

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

130 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK... AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM WEDNESDAY...

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST. UPPER AIR ANALYSES REVEAL
THAT THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS HAS SHIFTED A BIT EASTWARD IN THE
LAST 12 HRS... NOW SITTING OVER ERN NC... AND ACCORDINGLY THE HIGH
PW VALUES OF LAST EVENING HAVE SLIPPED A BIT OVER CENTRAL NC... BACK
DOWN NEAR OR JUST UNDER NORMAL... EXCEPT HOLDING ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA. THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED
THROUGH THE NC PIEDMONT... AND THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY TODAY AS THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD BECOMES OVERTAKEN BY LOW
LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SSE... DRAWING THE SEA BREEZE INLAND. THIS
FEATURE SHOULD HELP FOCUS AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER OUR SE SECTIONS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING... AND WITH MINOR SPATIAL
ADJUSTMENTS... HAVE RETAINED CHANCE POPS IN THE SE TODAY...
SOUTHEAST OF RALEIGH. THE NIGHTTIME STRATUS IS ALREADY BURNING OFF
FAIRLY QUICKLY... AND WE SHOULD SEE CONVECTION FIRING BY EARLY
AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND/OR ANY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARIES. THE THREAT OF LOCALLY HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS STILL LOOKS
ELEVATED... PERHAPS NOT AS HIGH AS LAST EVENING THOUGH... BUT THE
LCL-0C DEPTH IS STILL CLOSE TO 4 KM IN OUR SE... WITH WEAK STEERING
FLOW ENSURING SLOW/MEANDERING MOVEMENT. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN
THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80... ON PACE TO REACH HIGHS IN THE 88-91 RANGE
AREAWIDE. -GIH

EARLIER DISCUSSION AS OF 345 AM WEDNESDAY... A WEAK FRONT/TROUGH
OVER SOUTHERN VA ISN`T MAKING MUCH PROGRESS TOWARD NC THIS
MORNING...THOUGH THE HRRR STILL SHOWS THE BOUNDARY SLIPPING INTO THE
PIEDMONT BY MID-MORNING. MEANWHILE...DRIER AIR ALOFT NOTED JUST
WEST OF THE AREA ON WATER VAPOR WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE PIEDMONT
AND THE COMBINATION OF THE DRIER AIR AND DEEP MIXING WILL KEEP MOST
OF THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT CAPPED TODAY. TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST...WHERE PW WILL STILL BE HIGH...1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES...MODEST
INSTABILITY SHOULD REDEVELOP AND SUPPORT SCATTED SHOWERS AND STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL BE WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY
AND A LACK OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL.
DON`T SEE MUCH NEED TO CHANCE THE CURRENT FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS. HIGHS WILL BE A DEGREE OR SO
WARMER THAN ON TUESDAY...88-91.

IN THE ABSENCE OF FORCING ALOFT....CONVECTION WILL BE MOSTLY DIURNAL
IN NATURE...COMING TO AN END AFTER SUNSET. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. -22

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM WEDNESDAY...

HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO RISE ON THURSDAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BUILDS BACK TO THE WEST. MOST MODELS
SUGGEST AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION AS THE DISTURBANCE OVER
SOUTHERN GA THIS MORNING DRIFTS NORTH OVER THE AREA...ALBEIT AT A
WEAKER STATE. WEAK FLOW WILL PRECLUDE A SEVERE THREAT BUT HEAVY
DOWNPOURS COULD POSED A LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT AS PW CREEPS BACK
INTO THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S AND
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE MORE READINGS IN THE LOW 70S.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM WEDNESDAY...

..A TRANSITION TOWARD SUMMERTIME IN CENTRAL NC..

THE COMBINATION OF THE TAIL END OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE
NORTHEAST US AND AN UPPER LOW EVOLVING OVER THE GOM THIS MORNING
WILL MAINTAIN A SHEAR AXIS ALOFT INVOF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND
CAROLINAS THROUGH SAT. HOT AND SUBSIDENT SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING WILL
OTHERWISE STRENGTHEN AND EXPAND WEST FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO THE
SOUTHEAST US THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH LOWERING HEIGHTS ALOFT
ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...NEAR BERMUDA...WILL ALLOW A
SURFACE COLD FRONT/LESS HOT TEMPERATURES/FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO SETTLE BRIEFLY SOUTH INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES SUN-
MON.

WHILE THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR AXIS AND EMBEDDED
IMPULSES MAY PROVIDE A WEAK IMPETUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FRI-
SAT...PARTICULARLY WHERE THERMAL CIRCULATIONS ALONG THE SEA AND
VALLEY BREEZES FOCUS LOW LEVEL FORCING...THE INFLUENCE OF THE
BUILDING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD OTHERWISE KEEP ANY
CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL NC ISOLATED AT BEST THROUGH SAT. THE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL THEN PEAK IN THE CHANCE
RANGE...OVER THE NE PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT NEARS AND BECOMES DIFFUSE SUN-MON.

WHILE THIS WILL BE THE FIRST EXTENDED PERIOD OF 90 DEGREE
TEMPERATURES OVER CENTRAL NC...HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK
SEVERAL DEGREES OR MORE SHY OF ADVISORY CRITERIA/BETWEEN 99-102
DEGREES OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS/IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
ELSEWHERE. IN FACT...THE HOTTEST DAY TEMPERATURE-WISE ON SAT WILL
LIKELY BE A DAY OF LOWEST SURFACE DEWPOINTS/RH VALUES OWING TO A ~20
KT 850 MB WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...

THIS MORNING`S MVFR CIGS ACROSS SRN NC ARE FINALLY MIXING OUT...
WITH FAY CIGS HAVING BECOME VFR. VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE AT ALL
SITES THROUGH 18Z THU... ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING (AROUND 20Z-
00Z) AS SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF NC...
AND MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES TONIGHT 08Z-12Z. ANY STORMS
NEAR FAY ARE APT TO MORPH INTO STORM CLUSTERS... POTENTIALLY
DIFFICULT TO NAVIGATE AROUND. TYPICAL GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE IN CELLS LATER TODAY... BUT THE RISK OF THESE REACHING
SEVERE LIMITS IS LOW. FOG TONIGHT IS NOT A CERTAINTY... WITH ABOUT
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RESUME WITH THE ONSET OF
HEATING AND MIXING BY ABOUT 14Z THU. ASIDE FROM IN/NEAR STORMS...
CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z THU... VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL
THROUGH MON. SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY... MAINLY FROM
MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING... BUT COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE HIGH... AND THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE VFR AT ANY
GIVEN LOCATION. EARLY-MORNING FOG REMAINS POSSIBILITY... MAINLY FROM
LATE WEEKEND ON... AS HEAT CONTINUES TO BUILD BENEATH A BUILDING MID
LEVEL RIDGE. -GIH

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SYNOPSIS...KS
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...HARTFIELD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

1030 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK... AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM WEDNESDAY...

IN THE ABSENCE OF FORCING ALOFT....CONVECTION WILL BE MOSTLY DIURNAL
IN NATURE...COMING TO AN END AFTER SUNSET. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. -22

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM WEDNESDAY...

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM WEDNESDAY...

..A TRANSITION TOWARD SUMMERTIME IN CENTRAL NC..

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 650 AM WEDNESDAY...

SOME AREAS OF STRATUS/FOG HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING...THOUGH THE
COVERAGE IS SCATTERED AND NOT ALL TAF SITES ARE BEING IMPACTED. THE
MVFR CONDITIONS AT KGSO/KINT WILL BE BRIEF AND CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE BY 13Z. AROUND KFAY...WHERE RAINFALL WAS VERY HEAVY LAST
NIGHT...THE STRATUS MAY PERSIST THROUGH 14Z AND SOME MVFR CEILINGS
MAY LINGER EVEN AS THE STRATUS LIFTS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
ALL SITES BY LATE MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY FROM KFAY TO KRWI. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
AND IMPACTS...IF ANY...IS LOW. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
SLOWLY BECOMING SOUTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

OUTLOOK... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION STARTING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...LIMITING AVIATION
CONCERNS TO PRIMARILY EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG...THOUGH AN
ISOLATED STORM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SYNOPSIS...KS
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...22

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

650 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK... WHILE A WEAK TROUGH OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE HOLDS OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM WEDNESDAY...

A WEAK FRONT/TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN VA ISN`T MAKING MUCH PROGRESS
TOWARD NC THIS MORNING...THOUGH THE HRRR STILL SHOWS THE BOUNDARY
SLIPPING INTO THE PIEDMONT BY MID-MORNING. MEANWHILE...DRIER AIR
ALOFT NOTED JUST WEST OF THE AREA ON WATER VAPOR WILL SHIFT EAST
OVER THE PIEDMONT AND THE COMBINATION OF THE DRIER AIR AND DEEP
MIXING WILL KEEP MOST OF THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT CAPPED
TODAY. TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...WHERE PW WILL STILL BE HIGH...1.5 TO
1.75 INCHES...MODEST INSTABILITY SHOULD REDEVELOP AND SUPPORT
SCATTED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL
BE WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY AND A LACK OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL
LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. DON`T SEE MUCH NEED TO CHANCE THE CURRENT
FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS.
HIGHS WILL BE A DEGREE OR SO WARMER THAN ON TUESDAY...88-91.

IN THE ABSENCE OF FORCING ALOFT....CONVECTION WILL BE MOSTLY DIURNAL
IN NATURE...COMING TO AN END AFTER SUNSET. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM WEDNESDAY...

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM WEDNESDAY...

..A TRANSITION TOWARD SUMMERTIME IN CENTRAL NC..

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 650 AM WEDNESDAY...

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...22

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

413 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK... WHILE A WEAK TROUGH OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE HOLDS OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS... BRINGING LOW RAIN
CHANCES AND HOT TEMPERATURES.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM WEDNESDAY...

IN THE ABSENCE OF FORCING ALOFT....CONVECTION WILL BE MOSTLY DIURNAL
IN NATURE...COMING TO AN END AFTER SUNSET. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM WEDNESDAY...

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM WEDNESDAY...

..A TRANSITION TOWARD SUMMERTIME IN CENTRAL NC..

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM WEDNESDAY...

BIGGEST CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRATUS AND/OR FOG IN THE WAKE OF LAST EVENING`S CONVECTION. A VERY
WEAK COLD FRONT NORTH OF KINT/KGSO WILL SLIP SOUTH INTO THE AREA BUT
WILL ONLY BRING A WEAK WIND SHIFT AND MINIMAL CHANGE IN AIRMASS.
MEANWHILE... HIGH CLOUDS CURRENTLY ENSHROUDING THE AREA WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EAST...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR/IFR VSBYS ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...WITH BETTER POTENTIAL FOR IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS FROM
KRCZ TO KFAY WHERE RAIN WAS VERY HEAVY LAST EVENING.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY IN THE VICINITY OF KRWI AND KFAY....THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION AND TIMING IS LOW. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND SLOWLY BECOMING SOUTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...22

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

345 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM WEDNESDAY...

IN THE ABSENCE OF FORCING ALOFT....CONVECTION WILL BE MOSTLY DIURNAL
IN NATURE...COMING TO AN END AFTER SUNSET. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM WEDNESDAY...

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...

A MID/UPR RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SE STATES FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC DURING THE PERIOD...WITH A 593 DAM 500MB RIDGE CENTERED
OVER GA/SC BY TUESDAY. THE MAIN WEATHER STORY DURING THIS TIME WILL
BE INCREASED HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH PERHAPS AN INCREASE IN HEAT-
RELATED IMPACTS TO AREA RESIDENTS AND ESP OUTDOOR WORKERS DUE TO THE
FIRST-OF-THE-SEASON PROLONGED STRING OF DAYS OF 90-95+ DEGREE HEAT
WITH HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 100. LOWS EACH NIGHT IN LOWER 70S.

IN TERMS OF PRECIP CHANCES...MAJOR SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL BE
LACKING LATE IN THE WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND...SO THE BEST CHANCE FOR
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE AND TO OUR WEST NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...THUS WILL KEEP
DAYTIME POPS NEAR OR BELOW CLIMO VALUES. HOWEVER...LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS HINT THAT A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE MAY DROP SOUTH ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...OR PERHAPS OVER THE CAROLINAS...WHICH
WOULD INCREASE OUR RAIN CHANCES WITH EACH PASSING ONE. THE GFS STILL
SEEMS A LITTLE AGGRESSIVE PUSHING A COLD FRONT THIS FAR SOUTH SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...BUT NONETHELESS...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVES
SHOULD GIVE US AT LEAST CHANCE POPS LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM WEDNESDAY...

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...22

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

935 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

ONLY SIGNIFICANT UPDATE THIS EVENING WAS TO RAISE SKY COVER OVER
THE FAR SOUTHWEST...MAINLY BEACH AND MEDORA SOUTH TO BOWMAN AND
HETTINGER. 23Z ITERATION OF THE HRRR INDICATES IFR CEILINGS
APPROACHING THE FAR SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT BUT THEN BREAKS APART
AS LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES. FOR NOW JUST BUMPED UP SKY COVER
THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE SCATTERING OUT. OVERNIGHT SHIFT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR AGAIN. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

RADAR INDICATED JUST A COUPLE POPCORN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...DIMINISHING DURING THE PAST HOUR. COULD BE ONE OR TWO
MORE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BUT BY AND LARGE...WE WILL BE DRY
TONIGHT AND WILL KEEP OUR PREVIOUS DRY FORECAST. CLOUDS SHOULD
ALSO DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING...HOLDING ON LONGER OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR AREA. SUBTLE SLOW MOVING SHORT WAVE
SLIDING THROUGH THE FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING MODEST CYCLONIC FLOW
TO OUR AREA WITH A COUPLE VERY SMALL SHOWERS NOTED OVER THE
REGION.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN LOW POPS PRIMARILY OVER THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA AS
WEAK WAVE CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH...THOUGH THIS SHOULD
COME TO AN END BY EARLY THIS EVENING. LATER TONIGHT EXPECT SOME
FOG MAY DEVELOP MAINLY OVER THE FAR SOUTH WHERE AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE.

ON FRIDAY...ANY LINGERING FOG WILL DIMINISH IN THE EARLY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...THE DAY WILL START OUT QUIET AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
QUICKLY PASSES OVER THE AREA. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES BY LATE
AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
NORTHWEST...WITH GREATER STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY COMING FRIDAY
EVENING (SEE LONG TERM DISCUSSION).

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS OUR NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW
CIRCULATING OVER NORTHWESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. A 300MB 100KT JET
STREAK WAS SEEN PUNCHING INTO SOUTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA
WITH PRESSURE FALLS AS FAR EAST AS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST...PUSHING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THAT SAID...THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT AND LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER JET IS FORECAST TO
CLIP NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 00Z SATURDAY. THE LATEST HIRES ARW
WEST AND NMM WEST DEVELOP POCKETS OF CONVECTION FRIDAY EVENING
WEST/NORTHWEST. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS WEST/NORTHWEST SHOW DRY
CONDITIONS IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AS ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS WELL MIXED THROUGH THE EVENING. ALTHOUGH A SHALLOW INVERSION
DEVELOPS WITH SOME DECOUPLING...THIS WILL MOST LIKELY NOT BE DEEP
ENOUGH TO IMPEDE ANY STRONG WINDS ALOFT FROM REACHING THE SURFACE
WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. SURFACE BASE CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG
TRANSITIONING TO MOST UNSTABLE OVERNIGHT STILL YIELDS ROBUST VALUES
OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG. SUFFICIENT SHEAR IN PLACE FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT
WHEN COMBINED WITH CAPE MAY PRODUCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WEST/NORTHWEST. PREVIOUS SHIFT WAS CONCERNED WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL
AND SPC NOW HAS A MARGINAL REGION FOR SEVERE WEATHER...WIND AND HAIL
POTENTIAL...00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. HAVE MENTIONED AN
AREA OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GRIDS 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY. THIS IS ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH TRACKS ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY. THE MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MOVES ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
SATURDAY...HOWEVER...WHEN COMPARING THE GFS AND ECMWF MOST UNSTABLE
CAPE AND SHEAR ALIGNMENTS...BOTH MODELS SHOW THE BEST
INSTABILITY/CAPE VALUES...EVENTUALLY OUTRUNNING THE GREATEST SHEAR
REGION(WEST)...AT SOME POINT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL LIKELY
BE A NARROW TRANSITION ZONE NEAR THE FRONT WHERE ENOUGH ALIGNMENT OF
CAPE/SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING AND AREAL EXTENT OF THIS
AREA...HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
UNTIL THE NEXT SHIFT HAS A CHANCE TO REVISIT IT WITH THE LATEST
DATA. DESPITE THE SURFACE COLD FRONT EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY...A
CYCLONIC/NORTHWEST FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL TRIGGER A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE
DWINDLING SUNDAY EVENING. A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATING THROUGH THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT. A BREAK WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
THURSDAY. TIMING WILL LIKELY CHANGE BUT AGREEMENT WITH AN OVERALL
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVING ABOUT EVERY 24HR TO 36HR PERIOD IS THE MAIN MESSAGE.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 926 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
SLOWLY EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT
AND AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY...WITH FLOW TURNING
SOUTHWEST OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY
FLOW TONIGHT WILL KEEP A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...ESPECIALLY OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. NAM 925MB RH INDICATES INCREASING MOISTURE
IN THE WEST DURING THE NIGHT. LATEST HRRR INDICATES MVFR-IFR
CEILING PUSHING UP TOWARD WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT...BUT
CURRENTLY KEEPS MVFR-IFR CEILINGS SOUTH OF KDIK. SHOULD ALSO BE AN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET WITH PERHAPS ENOUGH MIXING TO INHIBIT
FOG/STRATUS FORMATION. FOR NOW WILL MENTION A SCATTERED IFR LAYER
AT KDIK LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY AND KEEP VFR CEILINGS.

BROUGHT A VCTS INTO KISN...KMOT AND KDIK AROUND 20 UTC FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

637 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

BROUGHT A VCTS INTO KISN...KMOT AND KDIK AROUND 20 UTC FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

1258 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

FOR THIS UPDATE...TWEAKED PRECIPITATION CHANCES BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS AND LOWERED TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES BASED ON
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND CLOUD COVER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 937 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK FOR THIS UPDATE WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES.
INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
PART OF THE STATE THROUGH LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. ALSO
SCALED BACK PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST BY
LATE AFTERNOON BASED ON HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE AND RADAR
TRENDS...AND INCREASED CLOUDS OVER THE WHOLE CWA THROUGH THE
EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

BLENDED POPS FOR THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON TO A BLEND OF THE
08-10 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
OBSERVED RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 1130 UTC. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

CURRENTLY...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM THE
HIGH CENTER OVER ALBERTA SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
INTO THE DAKOTAS. MEANWHILE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER MONTANA
AND WYOMING. AT UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSES WERE
MOVING EAST ACROSS MONTANA...WITH MORE IMPULSES FROM A SHORTWAVE
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF COLORADO/WYOMING. THESE IMPULSES WERE
ASSOCIATED WITH CURRENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING OVER
MONTANA AND WYOMING: AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOPED OVER MONTANA TUESDAY EVENING CONTINUED MOVING EAST
AND WERE IN EASTERN MONTANA. CONVECTION FARTHER SOUTH IN WYOMING WAS
MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.

ALL SHORT TERM REGIONAL AND GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE STATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE MODELS ARE ALSO DEPICTING THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BEING
MORE WIDESPREAD AND REACHING FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS.

IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...A MORE CONTINUOUS CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS
WAS OVER CUSTER AND PRAIRIE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA. THE
SHORT TERM HRRR AND RAP MODELS INDICATE THE CONVECTION ENTERING
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BEFORE DAYBREAK...AND CONTINUE DEVELOPING
AND SPREADING EAST. THESE MODELS ARE ALSO HANDLING THE CONVECTION
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MONTANA AND BRING THAT PRECIPITATION
EASTWARD AS WELL INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AFTER DAYBREAK.

KEPT THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL...BUT ALSO RAISED CHANCES IN THE NORTH AS EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THERE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

COOLER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY WITH CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION. LOOKING
AT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
TEMPERATURES IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL REACH ONLY
INTO THE UPPER 60S. LOWS TONIGHT AGAIN IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

A TYPICAL EARLY TO MID JUNE PATTERN WITH NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE GLOBAL 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN
AGREEMENT ON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUING
ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THURSDAY AS THE LAST SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT IMPACTS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE CONSENSUS IS FOR A DRY
FRIDAY WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE REGION. THEREAFTER...NEAR
DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THIS WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY WITH A DEEPENING WESTERN CANADA UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE FLOW
PATTERN IS THEN FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO QUASI-ZONAL TUESDAY
INTO MID NEXT WEEK...SUPPORTIVE OF LOW PREDICTABILITY IMPULSES AT
THIS TIME RANGE EMBEDDED IN THE FAST UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO MAINTAIN
AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE IT IS STILL
EARLY FOR DETAILS...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
CONVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY GIVEN THE FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN AND MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE REGION.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WAS MOVING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...TRIGGERING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE STATE. THESE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND
DIMINISH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WHILE VFR CIGS AND
VSBYS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES...SOME PATCHY
FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER KDIK/KBIS/KJMS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
ON THURSDAY.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...ZH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...ZH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

942 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

KEPT THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL...BUT ALSO RAISED CHANCES IN THE NORTH AS EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THERE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

A TYPICAL EARLY TO MID JUNE PATTERN WITH NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN MONTANA AT 11Z HAD MOVED
INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SPREADING/DEVELOPING EAST DURING THE DAY INTO KBIS AND EVENTUALLY
TO KJMS. TOO UNCERTAIN ABOUT KMOT. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTS INTO TONIGHT. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
LOWERING TO MVFR AT KISN/KDIK/KBIS/KJMS AFTER 00Z IN SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS AND FOG.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...ZH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

645 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

KEPT THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL...BUT ALSO RAISED CHANCES IN THE NORTH AS EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THERE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

A TYPICAL EARLY TO MID JUNE PATTERN WITH NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

337 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

KEPT THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL...BUT ALSO RAISED CHANCES IN THE NORTH AS EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THERE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

A TYPICAL EARLY TO MID JUNE PATTERN WITH NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD...AT LEAST UNTIL AFTER 00Z...THOUGH SOME MVFR IS POSSIBLE
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PERSISTING IN CENTRAL MONTANA AT 05Z WERE MOVING INTO EASTERN
MONTANA. EXPECT CONVECTION TO HOLD TOGETHER AND POSSIBLY REACH
KISN/KDIK AROUND 10Z-12Z. SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATING MORE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THUS
BROUGHT MENTION OF VCSH INTO KISN AND KDIK AROUND 10Z AND REMAINING
FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS SPREADING/DEVELOPING EAST DURING
THE DAY INTO KBIS AND EVENTUALLY TO KJMS. TOO UNCERTAIN ABOUT KMOT.
CIGS AND VSBYS LOWERING TO MVFR AT KISN/KDIK/KBIS/KJMS AFTER 00Z IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND FOG.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

1243 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

CONVECTION IN CENTRAL MONTANA WAS SPREADING/DEVELOPING IN NORTH
CENTRAL MONTANA. THESE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
MOVING EASTWARD INTO EASTERN MONTANA. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL RUNS
INDICATE THE CONVECTION HOLDING TOGETHER AND REACHING WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA BEFORE/AROUND DAYBREAK. BROUGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER NORTH INTO THE WILLISTON AREA FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL BE RE-EVALUATING THE DAYTIME PRECIP CHANCES
FOR NEXT FORECAST UPDATE.

OTHERWISE TEMPS...WIND...AND SKY COVER FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 956 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015

SLIGHT CHANGES WERE MADE TO SKY COVER AND POPS...THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015

THE PRIMARY UPDATES WERE TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW BASED ON THE LAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE HRRR MODEL...WHICH
HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH FIRING CONVECTION IN
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE
ON TRACK.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER EASTERN ONTARIO WITH COLD
FRONT DROPPING DOWN THROUGH NORTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO SOUTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE AREA WITH SHORT WAVE NOTED OVER WESTERN MONTANA.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES WITH
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING
THIS EVENING. QUIET WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED BEFORE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT
WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
LATE...WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST.

ON WEDNESDAY...SHORT WAVE CONTINUES ITS PUSH INTO THE REGION WITH
SHOWER CHANCES SPREADING PRIMARILY THROUGH WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HAVE KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST IN THE
MORNING GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY...WITH A SLIGHT MENTION OF IT IN
THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT...WITH HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015

INTERACTION BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES AND A SURFACE LOW/FRONT
INTO SOUTH DAKOTA WILL RESULT IN LIKELY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTHWEST...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE.
NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER AS MINIMAL CAPE IS FORECAST ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE HIGHEST 0-6KM SHEAR
RANGING BETWEEN 25KT TO 35KT OVER THE SOUTHWEST. A 80KT 300MB JET
STREAK WILL SLIDE THROUGH NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY...ENHANCING THE VERTICAL MOTION WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
WEST/SOUTHWEST THROUGH FAR SOUTH CENTRAL. AS THIS JET STREAK
TRANSLATES EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...POPS WILL DIMINISH. A
TRANSITORY MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES THROUGH FRIDAY FOR A DRY
PERIOD. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH
WITHIN THE NORTHERN STREAM CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WESTERN ALASKA AND
EXTENDING ALONG THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN. THIS NORTHERN STREAM WILL BECOME
THE DOMINANT FLOW SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS IT RESIDES NEAR/ALONG
THE NORTHERN CONUS AND SOUTHERN CANADA AREA. EXPECT A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...RESULTING IN CONTINUED CHANCES FOR DAILY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING DIFFERENCES ARISE OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THE GFS IS SLOWER RESULTING IN A
DRIER SATURDAY VERSUS THE FASTER ECMWF. BETTER AGREEMENT IS ACTUALLY
REACHED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A STRONGER MID LEVEL LOW AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA NORTHEAST
INTO MANITOBA. THIS COULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
AND POSSIBLE HEAVY PRECIPITATION. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

212 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST TO
QUEBEC BY LATE TODAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW WILL DROP INTO
THE AREA THIS EVENING AND THEN STALL THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
DRIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOOKS LIKE THE AREA WILL SEE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION TODAY
AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND CHANGED THE WORDING TO SCATTERED. HAVE
ALSO ADDED A MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS LATE IN THE DAY. RIGHT NOW
IT APPEARS BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE OVER THE EASTERN
END OF THE AREA WHERE LCL HEIGHTS AND UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE THE
BEST. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR LAKE BREEZE FRONTS. AREAS IN
BETWEEN THE STORMS WILL SEE SOME SUNSHINE SO FORECAST HIGHS SEEM
REASONABLE.

ORIGINAL...THE HRRR HINTS AT DEVELOPING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH WEAK UPPER SUPPORT ACROSS SRN
LWR MI EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN EXPANDING IT AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. A QUICK LOOK AT THE RADAR SHOW THE FIRST
OF THESE SHOWERS ALREADY WEST OF DETROIT MOVING SOUTHEAST. BY 15Z
THE HRRR HINTS AT THE ENTIRE AREA BEING VULNERABLE TO SHOWERS
BEFORE DRIFTING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE MORNING JUST AS
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FIRES TO OUR WEST ON THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE MORNING EVERYWHERE FOR THE
FIRST BATCH. THIS AFTERNOON WILL HAVE HIGHER CHANCE POPS DROPPING
SSE ACROSS THE AREA. WARM AIR MOVES IN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH 50MB TEMPS
18-20C. THIS IS GOOD FOR UPPER 80S WITH A ROGUE 90 NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION WEST.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THIS EVENING THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE JUST TO OUR NORTH/NORTHWEST
WITH ONGOING SCATTERED CONVECTION LIKELY ONGOING IN THE AREA AND
ALONG THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING REACHING JUST SOUTH OF A FORT WAYNE TO MANSFIELD LINE BY
THURSDAY MORNING. FOLLOWING 925MB NAM TEMPS IT APPEARS THE FRONT
DRIFTS NORTH A BIT THROUGH THE DAY AND THEN CONTINUES NORTH
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM IOWA TO THE
CENTRAL LAKES. FOR TONIGHT WILL INCREASE POPS TO HIGH CHANCE AND
LIKELY GIVEN THAT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AS THE
FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA. WILL ALLOW FOR A DIURNAL DECREASE TO
LOW CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE TOWARDS MORNING THURSDAY. FOR THE DAY
THURSDAY WILL GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AS PARENT LOW WILL BE WELL
NORTHEAST IN QUEBEC AND FORCING SHIFTS WEST TO DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WILL BOOST POPS BACK TO HIGH
CHANCE AND LIKELY FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WARM AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION. IT APPEARS THAT A LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AXIS WILL BE DRAPED OVERHEAD TO START THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND
MAY TRY TO LIFT NORTH AS A THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES ALOFT. LEFT POPS NEAR
40 PERCENT WITH SOME CONCERN THAT WARM AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS AND A
LACK OF A SUBSTANTIAL TRIGGER MAY LIMIT COVERAGE. CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDS THE RIDGE AND KICKS OFF THUNDERSTORMS. TOO FAR OUT TO
RESOLVE THESE FEATURES BUT IT LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE PATTERN
CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
EXTENDED WITH MILD NIGHTS.

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION HAVE
DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE SINCE LATE THIS MORNING.THE
BAND OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION HAS THINNED. THE
TIMING OF THIS LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS
DISRUPTED THE TYPICALLY TIMING OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AS CIN
DIMINISHES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND CAPE INCREASES ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHWEST OHIO...EXPECT SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH DCAPE INCREASING TO THE 1200-1400 RANGE SOME
STORMS MAY HAVE INTENSE DOWNDRAFTS/DOWNBURSTS. EXPECT ACTIVITY
OVER NORTHWEST OHIO AROUND 22-23Z WITH GRADUAL PROGRESSION EAST AND
WEAKENING. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION AND TIMING HAVE JUST
INCLUDED VCTS OR VCSH AT TAF SITES.

OVERNIGHT THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION BY MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH BY
00Z AND BECOME LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST BY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON-VFR FRI THRU SUN WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA.

.MARINE...
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THE LAKE TODAY AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. HAVE ISSUED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WITH WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS IN THE NEARSHORE
WATERS TODAY AND WAVES INCREASING TO 2 TO 4 FEET. THE WINDOW FOR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL SPAN FROM ABOUT NOON ON THE WEST END TO
10 PM ON THE EAST END. SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AS IT TRAVERSES THE LAKE...MAINLY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE LAKE ON FRIDAY WITH
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AGAIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WARM AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ147>149.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ142>146.

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...LAPLANTE
MARINE...KEC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

1054 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID SUMMER LIKE PATTERN WITH VERY WARM AIR AND INCREASING
DEWPOINTS.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO REAL CHANGES ARE NEEDED. THE
VALLEY FOG IS BURNING OFF AND THE SMOKE FROM THE FIRES ARE MOVING
OUT OF THE AREA. THIS LEAVES THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH AND THE
BUILDING BERMUDA HIGH TO THE SOUTH AS THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. AT
THIS TIME DON/T EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH TO MAKE IT THIS
FAR SOUTH. THE HRRR MODEL DOES SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR
PERRY COUNTY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.

AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 80 IN THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR
90 IN THE COAL FIELDS. IT SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THAT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FRINGE OF BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL DICTATE CONDITIONS TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH THE RETURN OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...AND INCREASE IN
THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS...AND LARGELY DRY AIR
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. KEEP THE CWA DRY DESPITE A SMALL
TEMPTATION TO ADD LOW END DIURNAL HEATING POPS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT JUST NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO SUPPORT
THIS. EXPECT TO SEE A LITTLE ENHANCED CUMULUS OVER THESE AREAS
HOWEVER.

850MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS...SO THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE TO LOWLAND MID TO UPPER 80S WITH A 90 DEGREE
READING HERE AND THERE...AND MOUNTAINS 5-10 DEGREES OFF THE PACE.

RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BE A POSSIBILITY TONIGHT.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A MID SUMMER LIKE PATTERN WITH
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY UNDER A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. WHILE
THIS WILL KEEP FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA...THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BECOME A RATHER DIRTY ONE. THIS MEANS THAT THERE WILL BE
A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD ON
SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...COMPLIMENTS OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WITH TIME...ESPECIALLY DURING
AFTERNOON HEATING. THUS...LOOK FOR AN INCREASING CHANCE OF A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM WITH EACH PASSING DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE THIS PERIOD WILL BE SATURDAY...AND
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE MODELS TARGET A PLUME OF DEEPER
MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO COMBINE WITH
THE ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE. THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S THURSDAY BEFORE THE REAL JUICE ARRIVES...THEN
GRADUALLY PULL BACK INTO THE 80S BY SATURDAY WITH THE DEEPER
MOISTURE...MORE CLOUDS...AND BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
USED WPC GUIDANCE WITH SOME TWEAKS. UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS
THE REGION THRU THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...WAVY COLD FRONT
REMAINS TO OUR NORTH.

WITH NO REAL ORGANIZED FORCING MECHANISMS...HAVE TWEAKED THE POPS
TO REFLECT THE THOUGHT THAT CONVECTION SHOULD GENERALLY TAKE ON A
DIURNAL NATURE.

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOG HAS LIFTED LIFTED...VFR THROUGH THE DAY. RIVER VALLEY FOG
TO FORM ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT AS THE WIND GOES CALM IN A MAINLY CLEAR
SKY.

WINDS TODAY LESS THAN 10KTS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF VALLEY FOG TONIGHT
COULD VARY.

.AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/JMV/26
NEAR TERM...FB/26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...FB/26

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

955 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LEADING AREA OF SHOWERS WILL TEND TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS
LAKE ERIE BUT COULD BRING A BRIEF SHOWER TO YNG/ERI THROUGH 14Z.
OTHERWISE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FILLING IN UPSTREAM ACROSS
NRN INDIANA WHERE MOISTURE IS INCREASING AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY. THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST BUT WEAKEN SOME
WITH TIME. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TOWARDS 20Z. ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OF
35-50 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE BREEZY TODAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-20 KNOTS AND GUSTS
OF 20-30 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON-VFR FRI THRU SUN WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA.

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR LEZ147>149.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ142>146.

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

759 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...SHOWERS DEVELOPED AS ANTICIPATED AND ARE NOW OVER LAKE
ERIE MOVING EAST. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS
WESTERN LWR MI AND NRN INDIANA AS WELL. EXPANDED CHANCE POPS EAST
FASTER THROUGH THE MORNING . OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON-VFR FRI THRU SUN WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA.

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

627 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TODAY WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH INTO THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. BEFORE THAT TIME...CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY
EXCEPT A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE WARM FRONT AT TOL AROUND
10Z AND A LESSER CHANCE AT CLE TOWARDS 14Z. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER 21Z...BUT MAY TAKE UNTIL 00Z TO REALLY
GET GOING. TIMING WILL NEED TO BE REFINED THROUGHOUT THE DAY BASED
ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS. ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OF 35-50 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL
BE VFR OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON-VFR FRI THRU SUN WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA.

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

405 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE HRRR HINTS AT DEVELOPING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH WEAK UPPER SUPPORT ACROSS SRN LWR MI EARLY
THIS MORNING AND THEN EXPANDING IT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE
AREA. A QUICK LOOK AT THE RADAR SHOW THE FIRST OF THESE SHOWERS
ALREADY WEST OF DETROIT MOVING SOUTHEAST. BY 15Z THE HRRR HINTS
AT THE ENTIRE AREA BEING VULNERABLE TO SHOWERS BEFORE DRIFTING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE MORNING JUST AS ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION FIRES TO OUR WEST ON THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL
HAVE CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE MORNING EVERYWHERE FOR THE FIRST
BATCH. THIS AFTERNOON WILL HAVE HIGHER CHANCE POPS DROPPING SSE
ACROSS THE AREA. WARM AIR MOVES IN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH 50MB TEMPS
18-20C. THIS IS GOOD FOR UPPER 80S WITH A ROGUE 90 NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION WEST.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THIS EVENING THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE JUST TO OUR NORTH/NORTHWEST
WITH ONGOING SCATTERED CONVECTION LIKELY ONGOING IN THE AREA AND
ALONG THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING REACHING JUST SOUTH OF A FORT WAYNE TO MANSFIELD LINE BY
THURSDAY MORNING. FOLLOWING 925MB NAM TEMPS IT APPEARS THE FRONT
DRIFTS NORTH A BIT THROUGH THE DAY AND THEN CONTINUES NORTH
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM IOWA TO THE
CENTRAL LAKES. FOR TONIGHT WILL INCREASE POPS TO HIGH CHANCE AND
LIKELY GIVEN THAT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AS THE
FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA. WILL ALLOW FOR A DIURNAL DECREASE TO
LOW CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE TOWARDS MORNING THURSDAY. FOR THE DAY
THURSDAY WILL GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AS PARENT LOW WILL BE WELL
NORTHEAST IN QUEBEC AND FORCING SHIFTS WEST TO DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WILL BOOST POPS BACK TO HIGH
CHANCE AND LIKELY FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON-VFR FRI THRU SUN WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA.

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PORTLAND OR

358 AM PDT WED JUN 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HOT WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END TODAY AS A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND OPENS THE
DOOR FOR STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE ABOUT
10 DEGREES COOLER INLAND THAN TUESDAY...BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE EARLY JUNE NORMALS. THE COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A DRY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
FROM WESTERN CANADA. STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEEPEN THE
MARINE LAYER ALLOWING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS TO PENETRATE FURTHER INLAND
EACH MORNING. ANY LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR BACK TO THE COAST BY
MIDDAY EACH DAY...YIELDING PLENTY OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE INLAND. NO
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BLUSTERY ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPED
TUESDAY EVENING...SIGNALING THE BEGINNING OF THE END TO THE EARLY
SEASON HOT SPELL ACROSS SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON.
KAST-KPDT PRESSURE GRADIENTS TOPPED +10 MB TUE EVENING...AIDING IN
THE PUSH OF MARINE AIR EAST OF THE COAST RANGE. THE RESULT IS MUCH
MORE SEASONABLE MORNING TEMPERATURES TODAY...WITH MANY LOCATIONS
RUNNING 10 DEG F COOLER THAN THIS TIME TUESDAY. ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD
MAINTAIN THIS 24 HR TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE TODAY...WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS LIKELY ABOUT 10 DEG F COOLER TODAY VERSUS TUESDAY. THIS WILL
KNOCK AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 70S TODAY FOR KELSO/
LONGVIEW...AND DOWN TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FURTHER INLAND.
THIS IS STILL A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR EARLY
JUNE...BUT WILL BRING CONSIDERABLE RELIEF FROM THE NEAR-RECORD HEAT
WHICH HAS GRIPPED THE REGION THE PAST 4 DAYS.

THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE AXIS WHICH BROUGHT THE HEAT TO THE REGION HAS
WEAKENED A BIT AND IS NOW BEING SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
OREGON. THIS IS OPENING THE DOOR FOR MORE PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT TO DEVELOP ACROSS WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE CLIPPING
WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON THIS MORNING...DEEPENING THE MARINE LAYER TO
ABOUT 1500 FT ALONG THE COAST. A FINGER OF LOW CLOUDS IS EXTENDING UP
THE COLUMBIA TO KELSO/LONGVIEW EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT WILL PROBABLY
HAVE A HARD TIME REACHING THE PDX METRO TODAY DUE TO THE DRY
LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS IN PLACE. ANY LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR BACK TO THE
COAST BY MIDDAY TODAY YIELDING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS OVERALL SETUP WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THURSDAY.

MODELS NOW SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A GULF OF ALASKA LOW WILL MOVE
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA THU NIGHT/FRI. MEANWHILE THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO BE PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH INTO CA/NV. STRONG
ONSHORE FLOW IN BETWEEN WILL CONTINUE THE COOLING TREND...DEEPENING
THE MARINE LAYER AND POSSIBLY BRINGING MORE CLOUDS INLAND FRIDAY
MORNING. 00Z ECMWF/GFS SHOW 850 MB TEMPS LOWERING TO AROUND +10 DEG C
ACROSS NW OREGON FRIDAY...A FAR CRY FROM THE LOWER 20S SEEN EARLIER
THIS WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP ONSHORE FLOW AND THE COOLER AIR
MASS ALOFT SHOULD PUSH TEMPS BACK DOWN TOWARD SEASONAL NORMS
FRIDAY...WITH COAST HIGHS NEAR 60 AND INLAND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.

DESPITE THE STRONG 100 KT+ WESTERLY JET FCST TO BE OVER WASHINGTON
FRIDAY...IT WILL REMAIN VERY DRY ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER SO NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE FROM DRIZZLE BEING WRUNG OUT OF THE DEEPENING
MARINE LAYER...MAINLY ALONG THE NORTH COAST. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE TO LOWER TEMPS BACK DOWN TOWARD SEASONAL NORMS AND
THEN KEEP THEM THERE FOR A WHILE. WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...00Z GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH CANADA THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS ON THE COAST IN THE
60S...AND INLAND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. ANOTHER SURGE OF
ENERGY WILL DIG FURTHER SOUTH OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH...WHICH WOULD
EXTEND THE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY LATE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. DESPITE THE TROUGHING...500 MB HEIGHTS REMAIN RATHER HIGH AND
IT IS DOUBTFUL MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. 00Z GFS/GEM HINT AT A DEEPER UPPER LOW NEARING THE PAC NW
COAST LATER TUE/WED... BUT THIS IS WHERE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES START
TO DIVERGE. DECIDED TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH
TUE/WED...THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WEAGLE/27

.AVIATION...MVFR STRATUS ALONG THE COAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND
16Z...AND AGAIN AFTER 06Z. INLAND CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
VFR. HOWEVER...DECENT ONSHORE WINDS SHOULD HELP PUSH COASTAL
STRATUS UP THE COLUMBIA RIVER THIS MORNING AND COULD BRING A
PERIOD OF REDUCED FLIGHT RULES. IT IS STILL UNCLEAR HOW MUCH OF AN
INLAND PUSH THE STRATUS WILL MAKE...BUT EXPECT ANY INLAND STRATUS
TO BURN OFF BY 18Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT AN INLAND STRATUS PUSH
WILL AFFECT THE TERMINAL THIS MORNING AND BRING A PERIOD OF
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 12-18Z. /64

.MARINE...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRES REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE NE PAC. THE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE STRONGEST DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS
AND EASE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT. STEEP SEAS AROUND 7 TO 9 FT...WITH A
DOMINATE PERIOD OF 7 TO 8 SECONDS...LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY. A LONGER PERIOD SWELL IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE ON FRIDAY AND COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF ADVISORY SEAS
OVER THE WEEKEND. MUCH MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT
WEEK WITH GUSTS TO 15 KT AND SEAS NEAR 4 TO 5 FT. /64

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
OUT 60 NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM PDT
THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SIOUX FALLS SD

1050 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING BY WITH RAINFALL ON THE NORTH SIDE NEAR THE
MID LEVEL FRONT. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SPREADING GRADUALLY EAST
ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING ABOUT A QUARTER TO A HALF
AN INCH OF RAINFALL TO THE REGION. FAR FROM EXPECTATIONS...BUT IT IS
SOMETHING. DRYING ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE REGION OF RAIN IS
ACCELERATING THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BRING A QUICK END TO THE RAIN
OVER MUCH OF SOUTH DAKOTA. NORTHWEST IOWA WILL SEE THIS RAINFALL
LINGER INTO THE EVENING AND A FEW CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN THAT AREA
MAY EVEN ALLOW FOR ISOLATED ONE INCH AMOUNTS. OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...ALTHOUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUARTER OR SO OF THE CWA MAY REMAIN CLOUDY ALL NIGHT.
LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY COOL WHERE CLOUDS CAN CLEAR OUT AND WILL AIM FOR
ABOUT 50 IN THE NORTHERN CWA...AND 55 TO 60 IN THE SOUTH.

FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY NICE DAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND
DECREASING CLOUDS. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS BUT
NOT ENOUGH TO RUIN SOME DECENT SUNSHINE. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WORK AROUND TO MORE SOUTHERLY ON
FRIDAY NIGHT...DRAWING UP SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MORE CLOUDS.
HOWEVER...DEEPER LIFT FORCING HOLDS BACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH ELONGATED UPPER TROUGHING PUSHING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...SO SHOULD SEE CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

ON SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL SEE GRADUAL INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION THREAT OVER THE EASTERN CWA...ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHEAST...AS PIECES OF ENERGY SHEAR NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.
OVERALL INSTABILITY IS FAIR TO MEAGER...BUT ENOUGH FOR MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL START LATE AFTERNOON IN
THE SOUTHEAST...AND OCCUR THROUGH MAINLY THE EVENING HOURS. SOME
MODELS LOOK TO HAVE A GREATER CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ENHANCING MID
LEVEL WAVE.

MAY HAVE SOME LINGERING EFFECTS OF THIS TROUGH IN THE SOUTHEAST ON
SUNDAY MORNING. BY AFTERNOON...FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE SETTLING
SOUTHEAST WITH AIRMASS FAIRLY UNSTABLE AFTER DAYTIME HEATING CYCLE
PUSHING HIGHS TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WITH BOUNDARY
POTENTIALLY NEAR THE CENTER OF THE CWA LATE DAY...COULD SEE A FEW
ROGUE STORMS POP UP...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE CHALLENGED BY THE LARGER
SCALE BEING LESS THAN FAVORABLE BETWEEN MAIN FLOW BANDS NORTH AND
SOUTHEAST.

LIKELY WILL TREND TOWARD A DRIER PERIOD MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS
FLAT RIDGING ALOFT GRADUALLY BUILDS BEHIND NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
MOVING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...INDUCING HIGH PRESSURE TO
NOSE SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPS SEASONABLE TO A BIT
BELOW NORMAL...LOWS MID 50S TO AROUND 60...AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80.

TUESDAY INTO TUE NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE DAY OF GREATEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCE AT THIS POINT...WITH INCREASED JET SUPPORT TO LIFT ALONG WITH
WARM ADVECTION REGIME. AGAIN A BIT NERVOUS WITH SYNOPTIC SURFACE
BOUNDARY LALLYGAGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT LIKELY TO AT
LEAST GET A BETTER SECONDARY AREA OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING FURTHER
NORTH THIS TIME. CONVECTION WOULD LOOK TO HAVE A FAIRLY DECENT
CHANCE OF CONTAINING SOME SEVERE ELEMENTS BY LATER TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH STRONG DEEP SHEAR AND MODEST INSTABILITY.

MODELS ARE SO DIVERSE BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN HANDLING THE
ZONAL PATTERN THAT COULD BE EITHER WARM AND HUMID AND LARGELY CAPPED
PER ECMWF WORLD...OR COOLER AND DRY PER GFS AND CANADIAN. SEVERAL
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE LONGWAVE ORIENTATION TOWARD ECMWF...BUT
HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO THE BLEND FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IN ANY SOLUTION
IS LOW. THIS WOULD BE SEASONABLE TEMPS AND PRECIP CHANCES.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

VFR WILL PREVAIL AT KHON IN THE NEAR TERM. BUT ONE THING TO WATCH
FOR IS FOG FORMATION IN EAST CENTRAL SD AS SKIES CLEAR WITH LIGHT
WINDS. THE HRRR AND SREF PROBABILITIES ARE HINTING AT PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN THOSE AREAS FROM ABOUT 09Z TO 13Z FRIDAY. ACCOUNTED
FOR THIS BY HEDGING KHON IN THE MVFR CATEGORY DURING THAT TIME
FRAME AS AT THIS TIME...DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH EVIDENCE THAT IT WILL
GET WORSE. THEN KHON WILL BE VFR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. ELSEWHERE...PLENTY OF MVFR STILL EXISTS IN NORTHWEST IA
AND IMMEDIATE ADJACENT AREAS WHICH INCLUDE THE KFSD AND KSUX TAF
SITES. THAT SAID...VFR CONDITIONS DO EXIST JUST NORTH OF SIOUX
FALLS AND WITH A NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL WIND CONTINUING TONIGHT...AM
SUSPECTING THAT THE RAP13 AND NAM12 SOUNDINGS ARE TOO ROBUST WITH
LOW CLOUDS HANGING ON THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO MID MORNING
FRIDAY. THEREFORE AM GOING VFR FOR KFSD FOR MOST OF THE 06Z TAF
BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE WAS A BRIEF BOUT OF MVFR
CUMULUS MID MORNING FRIDAY WITH THE MOIST GROUND. FOR KSUX...THE
LOW CEILINGS WILL HANG ON LONGER...AND MAY NOT TOTALLY BREAK OUT
UNTIL 13Z FRIDAY IF THE CURRENT ADVECTION OF THE LOW CLOUDS
SOUTHWARD CONTINUES.

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...MJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SIOUX FALLS SD

1107 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING IS STILL IN QUESTION. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO LOOK OVERDONE
WITH JUST A QUESTION ON WHETHER IT IS OVERDONE OR WAY OVERDONE. ALSO
SOME OF THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT GOING WESTERLY
RAISES CONVERGENCE QUESTIONS. FOR THE MOMENT WILL PLAN ON KEEPING
COVERAGE LOW BUT NOT TAKING OUT. ALSO...FOR NOW AM KEEPING A SLIGHT
MENTION EAST CENTRAL TO AN HOUR OR TWO PAST SUNSET...BUT GIVEN THE
FRONTAL MOVEMENT SEEMING A TAD STRONGER AND FASTER THAN BEFORE
DURING THIS TIME...WONDER IF THERE WILL BE ANYTHING LEFT ASSUMING
THERE IS SOMETHING TO START WITH.

LATE TONIGHT WILL BRING PRETTY CLEAR SKIES AND COOLING TEMPERATURES
WITH 60 TO 65 LOWS. FOR WEDNESDAY STILL PLAN ON A FAIRLY SUNNY START
WITH A CLOUD INCREASE STARTING SLOWLY...AND NOT REALLY PICKING UP
STEAM UNTIL MID AFTERNOON OUT WEST...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS STARTING LATE AFTERNOON OUT THERE AS THE EXPECTED WET
SYSTEM APPROACHES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STAY GENERALLY IN THE 80
TO 85 RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015

HEAVY RAINFALL FROM LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
REMAINS AT THE FOREFRONT OF CONCERN IN THE MEDIUM RANGE. AIRMASS
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SATURATED WITH INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM
DISSIPATED PACIFIC TROPICAL SYSTEM...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
LIKELY IN THE 1.5 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE ON THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL JET
WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF SYSTEM PUSHING OUT OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES...ESPECIALLY BY LATER NIGHT. WHILE MUCH OF THE
EVENING SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET..WILL START TO GET A BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY TOWARD 06Z...
AND BECOMING WIDESPREAD SOUTH OF I-90 LATE NIGHT. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY SETTLES IN A 400-800 J/KG WHICH COULD SUGGEST A
MARGINAL LARGE HAIL THREAT INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY LATE NIGHT OR
EARLY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE
THURSDAY PERIOD APPEARS SECONDARY TO RAINFALL THREAT...WITH BEST
CHANCE FOR SEVERE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERN CWA WHERE
SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH NORTHWARD BY LATER
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF SURFACE WAVE. TRACK OF LEVEL WAVE AND LOCATION
OF THE LOWER TO MID LEVEL GRADIENTS/LOW LEVEL JET CONVERGENCE
CERTAINLY POINTS TOWARD A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. WPC IN THE LAST 15 MINUTES HAS UPDATED
TO PLACE MUCH OF THE EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN CWA IN SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM 12Z THU TO 12Z FRI...AND EVEN A MODERATE
RISK IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST AROUND SPENCER/STORM LAKE/IDA GROVE.

WITH AS MUCH IMPACT AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONVECTION COULD HAVE ON
EVENTUAL SET UP OF PREFERRED PRECIPITATION LOCATION ON THURSDAY...
HAVE COORDINATED WITH NEIGHBORS AND DECIDED NOT TO YET ISSUE A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH. AT THIS TIME...A FAIRLY STRONG DIVERSITY IN
SOLUTIONS OF WHERE GREATEST PRECIPITATION AXIS WILL OCCUR...

WITH NUMEROUS AREA HAVING SOME DEGREE OF HEAVIER RAINFALL
LATELY...AND CONSISTENCY OF A REGIONAL HEAVY RAIN SIGNATURE...
WOULD BELIEVE A WATCH WOULD BE ALMOST CERTAIN WITH THE NEXT MAIN
FORECAST PACKAGE.

THERE SHOULD BE A TIME WHERE THINGS DRY OUT ACROSS THE AREA FROM
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS MEAN RIDGING TAKES A WEAK GRIP ON THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. GFS/ECMWF ARE A BIT QUICKER IN EXITING SYSTEM ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW SYSTEM EXITS
REQUIRED MAINTAINING A MEAGER CHANCE EARLY FRIDAY IN THE EAST.
FLOW TRENDS AGAIN TOWARD SOUTHWEST ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
AND ANOTHER BROAD WAVE CREEPING NORTHEASTWARD SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. SHEAR NOR INSTABILITY APPEAR TO BE OF
GREAT CONCERN...SO AT THIS POINT NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE THREAT. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK TOWARD SEASONABLY WARM
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND PERHAPS FLATTENING OF RIDGE BY
SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND PRESENCE OF A WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE BOTH PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THREAT OF
SEVERE STORMS AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 11/00Z. POSSIBLE THAT PRECIPITATION
COULD BEGIN TO AFFECT TAF SITES AFTER 11/03Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN TIMING AT THIS TIME...AND THUS WILL LEAVE TAFS DRY FOR
NOW.

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...JH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEMPHIS TN

255 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER WEATHER HAS SET IN ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S...HEAT INDICES WERE
BETWEEN ONE AND THREE DEGREES WARMER IN MOST SPOTS. A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 BUT DRY AIR
ALOFT IS LIMITING THEIR DEVELOPMENT.

FOR TONIGHT...WILL GO WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR FORECAST. BOTH THE HRRR
AND RAP SHOW RAIN FREE CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH ANY CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON DISSIPATING BY SUNSET. HOWEVER...WILL MONITOR IN
CASE STORMS DO DEVELOP MORE THAN ANTICIPATED THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF
COASTAL STATES WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW
INCREASING MOISTURE TO PUSH INTO THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
WITH DAYTIME HEATING...SIMILAR TO TODAY PERHAPS A DEGREE
LESS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WITH
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH MS.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH FRIDAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE GULF
COAST. SOUTHERLY FLOW SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL CAUSE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCES ONCE AGAIN AS YOU GO SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERED SOME BY MORE CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED CONVECTION.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
OVER THE WEEKEND...AND PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. SEASONABLY WARM
WEATHER WILL OCCUR. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE BETTER
CHANCES MAY GRADUALLY SHIFT TO ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER AS
THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO THE EAST. IN ADDITION...WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY AFFECT AREAS
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER.

JCL

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AT MKL DUE TO
PATCHY FOG. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS. LIGHT SW/S WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE ANY VCTS IN AT SITES THIS AFTERNOON.

CJC

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS MORRISTOWN TN

1031 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

.DISCUSSION...
12Z RAOBS DO NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE OHX AND FFC SOUNDINGS SHOW A COUPLE
OF SMALL INVERSIONS BELOW 650 MB THAT WILL HAVE TO BE BROKEN...AND
LIFT TODAY WILL BE LACKING WITH A WEAK WIND FIELD THROUGH THE
ENTIRE COLUMN. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SMOKIES AND SW NC...BUT THE HRRR AND NAM
REFLECTIVITY DEPICTIONS ARE LIKELY OVERDONE. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POP ONLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. SLIGHT TWEAKS WILL BE MADE TO
HIGH TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY DOWNWARD AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY.

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

DGS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX

900 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

.DISCUSSION...EVENING SOUNDING SHOWS NOT MUCH IN CIN THIS EVENING
NEAR THE COAST ALTHOUGH CAP IS DEVELOPING OVER INLAND AREAS
FARTHER WEST. VERY WEAK SHOWERS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ARE
DISSIPATING AS THEY APPROACH THE COAST...AND LITTLE TO NO CAP IS
FORECAST OVER THE GULF OVERNIGHT. WITH COASTAL CONVERGENCE...WILL
MAINTAIN THE 20 POPS FOR THE GULF AND IMMEDIATE COAST OVERNIGHT.
CONSIDERING THAT THE SHOWERS (VERY WEAK) ARE DISSIPATING AS THEY
NEAR THE COAST THIS EVENING...WILL NOT MENTION RAIN FOR THE INLAND
AREAS THIS EVENING...AS HRRR MODEL SHOWS NO ACTIVITY MOVING INLAND
(THOUGH COULD NOT RULE OUT A ROGUE SHOWER BEFORE MIDNIGHT).
OVERALL...WITH A PERSISTENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE MOST
PART...HOWEVER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A TAD WARMER
TONIGHT WITH A BIT MORE WIND. THIS OVERALL IS THE CASE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR INLAND AREAS BUT NEED SOME ADJUSTMENTS HERE
AND THERE. THUS...WILL ISSUE A QUICK UPDATE FOR THIS. OTHER MINOR
CHANGES. OVERALL WIND FORECAST LOOKS FINE. NO CHANGES TO LATER
PERIODS.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...PERSISTENT CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST WITH ANOTHER
POSSIBILITY FOR FOG TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR ALI. OTHER SITES SHOULD
HAVE MVFR CIGS FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS AREA WIDE. WINDS WILL BE A BIT
GUSTIER ON FRIDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...MID/UPPER SHEAR AXIS
PERSISTS OVER THE TEXAS COAST WHILE SURFACE MOISTURE GRADUALLY
INCREASES OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW MOVING MORE INTO WEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THIS EVENING. BY TOMORROW NIGHT A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AS SEAS INCREASE ALONG WITH
WINDS. CONTINUE TO SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL BEND INTO THE VICTORIA
CROSSROADS WHERE PWAT VALUES ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER. LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT SHEAR AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST WHILE NEXT
MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE DIGS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS ALONG
WITH BETTER MOISTURE PUSHING INTO THE EASTERN ZONES WILL BRING
SLIGHTLY HIGHER (30-40) POPS BY FRIDAY NIGHT. OVERALL...CONTINUE
TO SEE A FAIRLY PERSISTENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST. GUIDANCE STILL
APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE ON THE WARM SIDE FOR THE WESTERN BRUSH
COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS...SO WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S
EAST AND MID TO UPPER 90S WEST. LOWS WILL STAY IN THE 70S AGAIN
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. ANTICIPATE INLAND PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP AGAIN EARLY TOMORROW MORNING OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS WHERE
WINDS WILL BECOME MUCH MORE LIGHT OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN
THE EXTENDED WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAINS EAST OF THE REGION ON
SATURDAY BUT MODELS PROG PW/S APPROACHING 2 INCHES ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. COMBINATION OF SHEAR AXIS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF
AND WEAKNESSES IN FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TROUGH MOVES
OUT OF MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. FAVORED
LOCATIONS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHERE POPS WILL BE IN THE 50 TO
70 PERCENT RANGE. MAIN THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES MAY BEGIN TO DECREASE SOME BY THE
VERY END OF THE PERIOD AS RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES BEGINS
TO SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST. TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED SHOULD BE AT
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND ANTICIPATED RAIN CHANCES.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 77 91 78 90 78 / 10 20 20 30 20
VICTORIA 75 92 75 89 75 / 20 20 20 40 30
LAREDO 77 97 77 97 78 / 0 10 10 10 10
ALICE 76 94 76 94 77 / 10 10 10 20 20
ROCKPORT 80 91 80 89 80 / 20 20 20 40 30
COTULLA 76 96 76 95 76 / 0 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 77 92 78 92 78 / 10 20 20 20 20
NAVY CORPUS 79 89 80 88 80 / 20 20 20 30 30

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

GW/86...SHORT TERM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

1151 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015

.AVIATION...
EVENING STORMS HAVE DISSIPATED SAVE FOR A FEW AROUND KLFK... BUT
SHOW A CONTINUED WEAKENING TREND AND ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE NO
IMPACT FOR THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS TERMINALS TONIGHT. HRRR GUIDANCE
STILL DEVELOPS EARLY MORNING SHOWERS ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF FROM THIS EVENING/S STORMS OVER SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA AND THESE MAY REACH AS FAR NORTH AS KGLS AFTER 11Z.
OTHERWISE... DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... WITH VFR CONDITIONS
AND LIGHT S/SE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 7 TO 10 KNOTS DURING THE
DAY.

HUFFMAN

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WHAT AN INTERESTING NIGHT. STRONG/SEVERE STORMS NE OF LFK TO MLU
WITH OUTFLOW PUSHING SOUTH AND STORMS NEAR LCH WITH LARGE OUTFLOW
PUSHING WEST. OUTFLOW FROM SW LA STORMS JUST NOW GETTING INTO THE
EASTERN ZONES BUT NO STORMS SO FAR AND SHOULD BE COLLIDING WITH
SOUTHBOUND OUTFLOW SHORTLY. EXPECT THAT ONE MORE GASP COULD OCCUR
AND THAT NE COUNTIES MAY HAVE A WINDOW FOR A FEW MORE HOURS TO SEE
SOME SCATTERED STORMS SO HAVE PARED BACK POPS OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT. OVERZEALOUSLY FORECAST DEVELOPMENT EARLIER THIS EVENING
DOING THE UPDATE JUST AS OR BEFORE STORMS PEAKED IN INTENSITY.
OTHERWISE MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD STAY DRY WITH ANOTHER SEASONAL
NIGHT ON TAP.

MAY SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS TOWARD
MORNING SOUTH OF HIGH ISLAND WITH LONG LA OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
STRETCHING WELL OUT INTO THE GULF ACTING AS A FOCUS.
45

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 72 92 73 91 74 / 10 20 20 20 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 74 92 75 91 76 / 10 30 20 30 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 79 89 80 88 79 / 10 20 20 20 20

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

AVIATION/MARINE...14

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

105 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...ALLOWING HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO BUILD
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION...ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT WILL THEN MOVE INTO
THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL FURTHER INCREASE OUR CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS
WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 925 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES FOR THIS MORNING INTO
THIS AFTERNOON. SHAPED TOWARDS THE LAV MOS. WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
TO OUR EAST WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PUSH WARM
AND HUMID AIR INTO OUR REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO
AROUND 80 DEGREES IN THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 90 DEGREES IN THE
PIEDMONT. THIS MORNINGS HRRR AND HIRESW-ARW EAST SUPPORT TO
MENTION OF ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE COMBINED WITH OROGRAPHIC
FORCING. HAVE A GOOD AFTERNOON.

AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL BE PULLING OUT...ALLOWING FOR
SOME FLAT RIDGING TO START OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL PROHIBIT
LARGE SCALE DYNAMIC FORCING TO GENERATE WEATHER AND LEAVE US TO
RUMINATE ON MORE SUBTLE FEATURES. THE SURFACE TROF TO OUR EAST WILL
CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY...ALLOWING THE REGION TO END UP ON THE
BACKSIDE OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WITH A GENERALLY SWLY RETURN FLOW.
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ARE RATHER LIMITED BUT OROGRAPHIC FORCING
ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS
SEVERAL MESO MODELS INDICATE. WILL CARRY A HANDFUL OF POPS IN THE
15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON TO COVER
THIS POSSIBILITY. WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AFTER SUNSET ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL CEASE IN THE EVENING AND ALLOW FOR A DRY FORECAST
FOR THE OVERNIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S EAST OF THE
RIDGE AND LOWER 80S TO THE WEST...THOUGH WITH DEW POINTS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE LOWER 60S THIS AFTERNOON IT STILL WILL NOT FEEL
OVERLY UNCOMFORTABLE. LOWS TONIGHT ONLY COOL INTO THE UPPER 60S
EAST/LOWER 60S WEST.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

AN INCREASINGLY SUMMERLIKE PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A LARGE
SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD FROM THE BAHAMAS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THE WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE HOWEVER...SOME SIGNIFICANT
FEATURES THAT WILL PUT A DENT IN WHAT WOULD OTHERWISE BE A TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF HAZY...HOT...AND HUMID WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION. FIRST...THERE IS EVIDENCE OF DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE...PERHAPS IN THE FORM OF A WEAK TROPICAL
DEPRESSION/UPPER LOW...PROGGED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
GULF. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE AIDED IN ITS NORTHWARD PROPAGATION
INTO OUR REGION BY THE RETURN OF THE EARLY WEEK FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THIS MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN RISING IN EARNEST FRI WITH DEWPOINTS
WELL INTO THE 60S...EVEN SOME LOWER 70S LOWLANDS AND PWATS INTO
THE 1.7 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE BY FRIDAY AND BEYOND. SECOND...THE FIRST
OF TWO BACKDOOR FRONTS WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH
FRIDAY...BEFORE RETREATING BACK TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. A
STRONGER...MORE SIGNIFICANT...AND LIKELY MUCH FURTHER SOUTHWARD
MOVING BACKDOOR FRONT IS EXPECTED SAT. THE GFS HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF IN BRINGING THIS FRONT DOWN INTO
THE N-NE PART OF THE CWA BY SAT EVENING.

FOR THURSDAY...LITTLE TO WORK WITH YET AND THE DEEP MOISTURE IS
STILL AT BAY TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS GA/SC AND SOUTHERN NC...BUT
CREEPING NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS BY AFTERNOON. WILL
BEGIN TO INTRODUCE LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS THU AFTERNOON
MAINLY WEST OF I-77...POSSIBLY REACHING AS FAR NORTHWARD AS
GREENBRIER COUNTY BY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE BEST COVERAGE AT THIS
TIME MAY ACTUALLY BE A LITTLE LATER THAN NORMAL...TOWARD 00Z FRI.

FOR FRIDAY...THE CRUX OF AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMANATING
ACROSS GA ALONG THE EARLIER STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING AN
ENHANCED THREAT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE CWA. THE
GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE...WHICH WILL ALSO COINCIDE WITH THE AREA OF BEST
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/OROGRAPHIC LIFT ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING...ESPECIALLY WEST OF
THE I-77. GIVEN A HIGH CAPE/LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH BASICALLY
NIL DYNAMICS ALOFT...EXPECT MAINLY PULSE STORMS WITH THE GREATEST
CONCERN BEING SLOW MOVING HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY WITHIN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE BACK DOOR FRONT WILL LIKELY ENHANCE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH/NORTHEAST COUNTIES WITH A FEW STRONG
STORMS POSSIBLE. COVERAGE MAY DECREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE CWA AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.
GREATEST CONCERN FOR STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL SAT/SUN
WOULD BE ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR...THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...AND
DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH AND ROANOKE VALLEYS.
SOUTHWESTWARD MOVING STORMS IN THE SUMMER OFTEN SURVIVE WELL AND
CAN BE STRONG...AND THIS APPEARS TO BE A SCENARIO FAVORING SUCH
AN OCCURRENCE.

GIVEN THE VERY WEAK DYNAMICS ALOFT...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY...WOULD
EXPECT CONVECTION TO DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER...IT
MAY LINGER A LITTLE LONGER INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS SAT-
SUN SUCH THAT POPS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY REMOVED.

MUCH OF THE CWA WILL BE FLIRTING WITH POCKETS OF 850MB TEMPS +20C
FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...DEWPOINTS
CLOSING IN ON 70...AND INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND
ASSOCIATED CLOUD DEBRIS SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S TO THE
PIEDMONT WHERE THE LEAST COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AS
WELL. THUS...WHILE IT BE WARMER THAN ANY TIME SO FAR THIS TIME AND
REMAINING CONSISTENTLY THAT WAY...HEAT INDICES APPEAR TO BE IN
CHECK IN THE LOW TO MID 90S IN THE WORST CASE SCENARIO...REMAINING
BELOW 90 WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. NIGHTS WILL BE MUGGY WITH LOWS
ONLY IN THE 60S WEST TO LOWER 70S PIEDMONT. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON MINS AND 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ON MAXES.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD WEST AND NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONSEQUENTLY...THE PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED WEST WITH TIME INTO THE LOWER/MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE TX/LA/AR REGION BY THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS THROUGH SATURDAY AND REMAINS OVER THE EAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE BACK DOOR FRONT THAT DRIFTED SOUTHWEST INTO
THE REGION SAT AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLIGHTLY FURTHER
SOUTHWEST TOWARD LYH/ROA AND THEN STALLS IN THIS VICINITY SUN-
MON...BEFORE RETREATING NORTHWARD. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO PEAK IN INTENSITY AND DRIFT SLOWLY BACK EAST BY TUE/WED.
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE TO TRIGGER/FOCUS
CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINING VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE...POP UP AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
APPEAR TO BE A GOOD BET EACH DAY...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ACROSS
THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS. HAVE CONTINUED CHANCE
TO HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH A DIURNAL TREND.

HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE ABOVE
NORMAL...MOSTLY 80S WEST TO LOWER 90S PIEDMONT WITH LOWS ONLY IN
THE 60S WEST TO LOWER 70S PIEDMONT. HEAT INDICES APPEAR TO REMAIN
BELOW CRITICAL VALUES AND THE DAILY ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION...ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS...AND HIGH
DEWPOINTS/PWATS SHOULD TEMPER MAX TEMPS AS WELL. NONETHELESS...IT
DOES APPEAR THAT WE ARE IN FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HEAT AND
HUMIDITY.

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 105 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SCT TO BKN CLOUDS AROUND 5K ASSOCIATED WITH A PERSISTENT INVERSION.
ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. UNLIKELY TO OCCUR AT ANY TAF LOCATIONS
BECAUSE OF THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE COVERAGE. EXPECTED AREAS OF
FOG AND HAZE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LWB AND BCB MAY DROP TO
IFR/LIFR IN THE RADIATIONAL FOG WHICH DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT. ANY FOG
THAT FORMS WILL LIFT/MIX OUT BY 10 AM...THEN SCT TO BKN CU WILL
DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY
BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT.
LIMITED COVERAGE ANTICIPATED ONCE AGAIN WITH BLF BEING THE TAF
LOCATION WITH BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION.

WINDS...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-9KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT 5-10 KTS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE SUMMER LIKE WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
CWA BY THE WEEKEND. CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE MOST
NUMEROUS ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. THE CONVECTION WILL RESULT
IN LOCALIZED AND BRIEF MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS...WITH GREATER
POTENTIAL FOR IFR-LIFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG MOST TAF SITES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
TAF VALID PERIOD OUTSIDE AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AND
NIGHTTIME/EARLY MORNING FOG.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...KK/MBS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...KK/RAB
AVIATION...KK/RAB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

936 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

.UPDATE...LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
ISSUED AT 936 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA IMPACTING EAST CENTRAL IOWA AND
NORTHERN ILLINOIS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 810 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

HAVE CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
MONROE...ADAMS...JUNEAU...AND VERNON COUNTIES. THE THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH OF THESE AREAS. WE ARE
KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS CLOSER TO THE
HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR IN NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL IOWA. IF THESE
STORMS LIFT NORTHEAST THEY COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE
WATCH AREA. IF THESE STAY TO THE SOUTH...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY
BE CANCELLED EARLY FOR THE REMAINING PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA
AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED TROUGHS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA...THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND
FROM NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...WHILE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
WAS PRESENT OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.. THE TROUGHING JUST TO OUR WEST
IS COMPOSED OF MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES...EACH OF WHICH HAS PROVIDED
DYNAMIC FORCING AND SURGES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO DRIVE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS IOWA INTO THE FORECAST AREA. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE
EXISTS FOR THE PRECIPITATION NOTED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.5 TO 2
INCHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA PER RAP ANALYSIS...HIGHEST IN IOWA.
THE ONE THING NOT WORKING IN OUR FAVOR FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS
INSTABILITY. THE MAIN WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STUCK NEAR I-80
DUE TO COOL AIR OUTFLOW FROM THE SHOWERS TO THE NORTH. ALL OF THE
CAPE AS SEEN ON SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE RESIDES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. THIS HAS BEEN TOO FAR SOUTH TO ALLOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF
THUNDERSTORM GENERATION IN OUR FORECAST AREA...KEEPING PRECIPITATION
RATES MUCH LOWER. REGARDING THE COOL OUTFLOW...TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN STUCK MOST OF THE DAY FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. TO THE
NORTHWEST...MUCH DRIER AIR WAS NOTED FROM NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN
MN WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS 0.75-1 INCH. AS A RESULT...SKIES ARE
MOSTLY SUNNY THERE.

SOME BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY DUE TO 3
REASONS...

1. WARM FRONT REMAINING STUCK NEAR I-80 HOLDING INSTABILITY FROM
MOVING NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

2. TROUGH FROM SOUTHERN MN INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA MOVING EAST
QUICKER.

3. A LINEAR MCS EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTH OF OMAHA SHORTLY...WHICH THEN
TRACKS EAST AND INTERCEPTS MUCH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT.

RAP AND HRRR MODEL RUNS THROUGHOUT THE DAY HAVE BEEN CONTINUOUSLY
BACKING OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION OUR FORECAST AREA WOULD
SEE THROUGH TONIGHT...AS A RESULT OF THE 3 ITEMS ABOVE. THE FORECAST
HAS BEEN FOLLOWING SUIT...THUS CAUSING CANCELLATIONS TO THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH. THERE STILL IS POTENTIAL THIS EVENING FOR THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF THE LINEAR MCS TO LIFT THROUGH EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BROUGHT UP AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THUS...HAVE LEFT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. HOWEVER...IF IT LOOKS LIKE
THIS EVENING THE LINEAR MCS WILL STAY ON AN EASTWARD TRACK...THEN
THE WATCH CAN BE DROPPED.

11.12Z NAM/ECMWF/GFS HAVE ALSO FOLLOW SUIT WITH THE FASTER EXIT OF
PRECIPITATION SUCH THAT ALL THREE BASICALLY HAVE THE FORECAST AREA
DRIED OUT AT 12Z FRI...EXCEPT MAYBE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS IN
THE SOUTH A FEW HOURS LATER. HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO FOLLOW
SUIT AND SPED UP THE EXIT OF PRECIPITATION. WE MAY NEED TO EVEN
SPEED IT UP MORE.

ALONG WITH THE SPEED UP OF THE TROUGH COMES A QUICKER ENTRANCE OF
THE DRIER AIR EVIDENT ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MN. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER NORTH OF I-90 DROPS BELOW 1 INCH. THUS...WE
SHOULD SEE A CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THE DRIER AIR MEANS
BETTER MIXING...THUS ALSO BOOSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES
NORTH OF I-90.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO MUCH OF SATURDAY STILL LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH
THE AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
HOWEVER...STARTING TO SEE SOME CHANGES IN THE MODEL RUNS TO INCREASE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IN THE 11.12Z
ECMWF. AS A RESULT...CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN INCREASED...TEMPERATURES
LOWERED SLIGHTLY...AND HAVE BROUGHT IN SOME LOW PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR NORTHEAST IOWA.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY STILL LOOKS INTERESTING WITH ALL MODELS
WANTING TO BRING A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CURRENT UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WE
SEE A DECENT SURGE OF BOTH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND 1.5-2
INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. THE QUESTION IS GOING TO BE THE
EXACT TRACK OF THIS SHORTWAVE AND THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. THERE
REMAINS A GOOD AMOUNT OF SPREAD BETWEEN THE 11.12Z NAM...ECMWF...GFS
AND CANADIAN ON THE TRACK...BUT THEY ALL DEPICT SOME SHOWERS AND
STORMS AFFECTING THE AREA. THEREFORE...STILL MAINTAINED 50-70
PERCENT CHANCES BUT QPF IS NOT TOO HIGH YET. IF THE LAST MANY RUNS
OF THE ECMWF ARE RIGHT...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT 1 TO LOCALLY 2
INCHES. LUCKILY WE HAVE ALMOST 2 DAYS TO DRY OUT FROM THE CURRENT
RAIN...PLUS WE ARE NOT ENDING UP WITH AS MUCH OUT OF THE CURRENT
RAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL GO UP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MAKING IT
FEEL MORE STICKY. HARD TO DISCERN SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AT THIS
TIME...THOUGH.

THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY IN BRITISH COLUMBIA IS PROGGED BY MODELS
TO SWEEP ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE
APPEARS TO BE A TREND IN MODELS FOR THIS TROUGH TO HAVE MAYBE A
LITTLE BIT MORE INFLUENCE ON US...DRIVING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN BEHIND
IT FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. GIVEN THIS TREND DEVELOPING...HAVE CUT
BACK ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THESE DAYS AND WE MAY EVENTUALLY
BE ABLE TO GO ENTIRELY DRY IF TRENDS CONTINUE. 850MB TEMPS IN THE 10-
14C RANGE PLUS DRY AIR SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S.

THE 11.00Z/12Z ECMWF/GFS STILL POINT TO A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH MAYBE SOME HINTS TOWARDS RIDGING AS WE
APPROACH LATE THU FROM TROUGHING DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
HARD TO TIME RIGHT NOW SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THIS ZONAL
FLOW...BUT IT APPEARS THERE COULD BE ONE COMING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY
WITH A SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM RISK. ANOTHER RISK COULD COME IN BY
LATE THURSDAY. THEREFORE...THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO DEPICT 20 TO 40
PERCENT CHANCES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

PERIODS OF IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE
TAF SITES THIS EVENING IN BR AND MODERATE TO HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS.
THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF LATER THIS EVENING AND END
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...LOWER CEILINGS WILL HANG AROUND UNTIL
DRIER AIR ARRIVES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. PLAN ON IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID TO LATE
FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

THE FIRST WAVE OF PRECIPITATION SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS
EXPECTED...BRINGING ANYWHERE FROM 1/3 TO A LITTLE OVER 1 INCH OF
RAINFALL...HEAVIEST IN FAR SOUTHWEST WI. THE SECOND WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION...WHICH THE PAST FEW DAYS LOOKED TO SET UP FROM
SOUTHEAST MN INTO CENTRAL WI...NOW LOOKS TO TRACK WELL TO THE SOUTH
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-80. ADDITIONALLY...THE SECOND WAVE OF PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE EAST QUICKER. THEREFORE...THE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LOWERED...NOW ONLY AN ADDITIONAL 1/2 TO
1.5 INCHES...HIGHEST FROM EASTERN IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL WI.
WITH THE LOWER TOTALS...RIVERS DO NOT LOOK NEARLY AS CONCERNING FOR
FLOODING. MAY STILL NEED TO WATCH BASINS SUCH AS THE KICKAPOO AND
TURKEY GIVEN THEY LOOK TO PICK UP THE MOST RAINFALL.

LOOKING AHEAD...ANOTHER 1 TO LOCALLY 2 INCHES COULD FALL SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LESSER RAINFALL FROM TODAY AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY TO SATURDAY FOR WATER TO FLOW
DOWNSTREAM...WE MAY BE ABLE TO ABSORB THE RAIN. STILL SOMETHING TO
WATCH...THOUGH.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...WETENKAMP
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
HYDROLOGY...AJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

810 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

.UPDATE...LATE THIS EVENING
ISSUED AT 810 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

UPDATE ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE DEFORMATION BAND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO
FOR THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...WE ARE KEEPING A
CLOSE EYE ON THE WARM FRONT CURRENTLY POSITIONED CLOSER TO THE
INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR ACROSS IOWA INTO ILLINOIS . FORECAST
MODELS SUGGEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL INCREASE OVER THE WARM
FRONT AND INTO NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN OVER THE
NEXT HOUR WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
THESE AREAS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO SEE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL. WHILE THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING APPEARS TO BE
DIMINISHING WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON FAYETTE AND
CLAYTON COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST IOWA...AS WELL AS GRANT COUNTY IN
FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THESE ARE THE AREAS CLOSEST TO THE
STRONGER INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH AND ARE IN A FAVORABLE AREA
ALONG THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO SUPPORT PERIODS OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

SOME BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY DUE TO 3
REASONS...

1. WARM FRONT REMAINING STUCK NEAR I-80 HOLDING INSTABILITY FROM
MOVING NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

2. TROUGH FROM SOUTHERN MN INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA MOVING EAST
QUICKER.

3. A LINEAR MCS EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTH OF OMAHA SHORTLY...WHICH THEN
TRACKS EAST AND INTERCEPTS MUCH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ054-055-061.

MN...NONE.
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR IAZ011-029-030.

UPDATE...WETENKAMP
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
HYDROLOGY...AJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREEN BAY WI

805 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 805 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

ASOS AND SPOTTER REPORTS INDICATE LESS THAN AN INCH OF RAIN HAS
FALLEN ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE BACKSIDE OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINFALL IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY INTO WESTERN
WISCONSIN...WITH NO ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY UPSTREAM. THE HRRR MODEL
REFLECTS THE CURRENT SITUATION WELL...WITH ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SCENARIO
APPEARS TO GIVE US ONLY 1 TO 2 INCHES OF OVERALL QPF OVER A FAIRLY
LONG PERIOD OF TIME...WHICH LOOKS TO FALL SHORT OF THE FLOOD WATCH
CRITERIA. WITH THE BEST RAINS LOOKING TO STAY TO OUR SOUTH WILL
CANCEL THE FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

MAIN FCST HEADACHE CONTS TO BE THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS
ACROSS WI TNGT. TREND HAS BEEN SOUTH OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND
BASED OFF OF THE LATEST RADAR MOSAIC...THIS TREND APPEARS TO BE
CORRECT.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED AN AREA OF LOW PRES OVER NE KS...
A WRMFNT STRETCHED WEST TO EAST FROM SRN IA TO NRN OH...AND A PAIR
OF WEAK HI PRES AREAS OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND NRN PLAINS.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED PLENTY OF STRATIFORM RAIN (LIGHT TO
MODERATE INTENSITY) OVER ALL BUT NW WI. THIS PCPN CAME IN FASTER
AND FOCUSED FARTHER SOUTH THAN ANTICIPATED YESTERDAY.

THE SFC LOW TO NOW TRACK E-NE INTO NRN IL TNGT WHICH IS FARTHER
SOUTH THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT 24 HOURS AGO. HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
STILL EXISTS...BUT THE MAIN AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO BE
FOCUSED ACROSS THE SRN THIRD OF WI WITH CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI ON THE
NRN FRINGES OF THE MAX QPF. HAVE ALREADY DROPPED THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AND ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH ESSENTIALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
MARSHFIELD TO KEWAUNEE DUE TO RIVERS/STREAMS STILL HIGH FROM LAST
WEEK`S RAINS. HAVE ALSO TRIMMED BACK ON PCPN TOTALS WITH A RANGE
MORE IN THE 0.5 TO 1.5" RANGE. LASTLY...WL END THE PCPN THREAT
ACROSS N-CNTRL WI TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO PULL
AWAY. MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPR 40S N-CNTRL WI...TO
THE MID 50S E-CNTRL WI.

AS THE SFC LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRI MORNING...ANY
LINGERING PCPN OVER ERN WI WL COME TO AN END. MODELS ARE NOW
QUICKER BRINGING AN AREA OF HI PRES INTO WI BY MIDDAY FRI...THUS
EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS AND BUMP UP IN TEMPS AS A RESULT. LOOK
FOR MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NEAR LAKE MI...AROUND 70
DEGS E-CNTRL WI AND LWR TO MID 70S CNTRL WI.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAYEVENING
AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND UPPER RIDING ARRIVES
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WEAKENING UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST
FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL DRIVE A
SURFACE WARM FRONT NORTH FROM ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
RAIN AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BR GULF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE SO ANOTHER INCH OR MORE OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

IT SHOULD BE DRY MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH FAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES. AN UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
OR EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS BECOME GREATER TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL MOST OF THE TIME...WITH THE
WARMEST DAYS BEING SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND THE COOLEST DAYS
THURSDAY AND PERHAPS FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF TNGT AS
AN AREA OF LOW PRES MOVES INTO SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT
LAKES. EXCEPT FOR THE RHI TAF SITE...LOOK FOR CIGS TO REMAIN IN
THE IFR/MVFR RANGE WHILE VSBYS TO REMAIN IN THE MVFR RANGE.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON FRI AS THE LOW PRES DEPARTS AND
WEAK HI PRES BUILD INTO WI. AFTER SOME LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS
OVER THE ATW...GRB AND MTW TAF SITES EARLY FRI MORNING...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE.........KURIMSKI
SHORT TERM.....AK
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

654 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

.UPDATE...THIS EVENING
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

SOME BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY DUE TO 3
REASONS...

1. WARM FRONT REMAINING STUCK NEAR I-80 HOLDING INSTABILITY FROM
MOVING NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

2. TROUGH FROM SOUTHERN MN INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA MOVING EAST
QUICKER.

3. A LINEAR MCS EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTH OF OMAHA SHORTLY...WHICH THEN
TRACKS EAST AND INTERCEPTS MUCH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ053>055-061.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR WIZ042>044.

MN...NONE.
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR IAZ011-029-030.

UPDATE...WETENKAMP
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
HYDROLOGY...AJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

334 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

...SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAIN EVENT WITH FLOODING POSSIBLE BEGINNING
LATE THU...

CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED IN THE NORTHERN STREAM NORTHWEST FLOW FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOTED IN EASTERN
WASHINGTON. MEANWHILE...IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM AN UPPER TROUGH
WAS PRESENT OVER CALIFORNIA WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO NEBRASKA.
WITHIN THAT SOUTHWEST FLOW...SHORTWAVES OF NOTE WERE OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH. BOTH SHORTWAVES ARE GENERATING
CONVECTION OVER COLORADO. CONDITIONS ARE QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WITH A NOSE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. A DRY AIRMASS AS
DEPICTED ON THE 12Z MPX SOUNDING...REFLECTED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER
OF 0.67 INCHES...HAS ALLOWED FOR DEEP MIXING AGAIN...PUSHING
DEWPOINTS DOWN AS LOW AS THE UPPER 40S IN SOME SPOTS. WITH 925MB
TEMPS OF 19C NORTH TO 22C SOUTH AND PLENTY OF SUN...TEMPERATURES
HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. TO OUR SOUTH...THE COLD
FRONT FROM LAST NIGHT HAS STALLED JUST SOUTH OF I-80. A MUCH MORE
HUMID AIRMASS EXISTS SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S AND 850MB DEWPOINTS OF 10-14C.

MODELS PROG THE TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT TO LIFT
OUT...WHICH ALLOWS SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM TO IMPACT THE
AREA BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST FOR THE SHORT TERM IS IN NORTHEAST COLORADO.
AS THIS SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO NEBRASKA TONIGHT...DPVA FROM
IT COMBINED WITH A STRONG INCREASE IN THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET
SHOULD FIRE AN MCS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA. AN IMPORTANT POINT HERE TO
NOTE...WHERE THIS MCS TRACKS TONIGHT LOOKS TO HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS IN
HOW OUR HEAVY RAIN SETS UP FOR THU/THU NIGHT AND POSSIBLE SEVERE
CHANCES THU EVENING. THIS IS NICELY SEEN IN 10.03Z AND 10.09Z SREF
MEMBERS...AS WELL AS AMONGST RUN TO RUN TRENDS OF DETERMINISTIC
MODELS. THE 10.12Z NAM WANTS TO TRACK THE MCS NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHWEST MN BY 18Z THU. HOWEVER...FOLLOWING MORE OF A NORMAL
CORFIDI TO FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTOR APPROACH...THE MCS
SHOULD MOVE MORE EAST WHICH IS NICELY REFLECTED IN THE 10.00Z NSSL
WRF...10.12Z GFS/REGIONAL CANADIAN. A MORE EASTWARD APPROACH KEEPS
THE CURRENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN SOUTHERN IA FROM LIFTING AS FAR
NORTH...WHICH IN TURN WOULD HELP SET UP THE STRONG FRONTOGENESIS
ZONE THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY FARTHER SOUTH.

WHILE THAT MCS IS DEVELOPING TONIGHT...A WARM ADVECTION WING OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER SHOULD FORM OVER IOWA OVERNIGHT AND
LIFT NORTH INTO SECTIONS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WING OF
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH ON THURSDAY...WITH THE
PRECIPITATION EXPANDING OVERALL AS THE SHORTWAVE IN NEBRASKA MOVES
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONALLY...PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOOTS UP
TO AROUND 2 INCHES IN THE AFTERNOON...PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR THE
SHORTWAVE TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION AND EVEN HEAVY AT THAT. THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL ACT TO SATURATE THE SOILS...PRECONDITIONING THEM
FOR FLOODING PERHAPS AS EARLY AS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY COULD BE QUITE THE RAW DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...EXCEPT SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 18. NORTH OF THE FRONT...A BRISK NORTHEAST WIND
DRAWING IN LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL ALLOW FOR WET-BULBING. COOLED
HIGHS A BIT AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

...FLOODING AND OTHER SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT...

THURSDAY NIGHT REMAINS THE MAJOR FOCUS FOR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
IMPACTS. THERE REMAINS STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THE CURRENT UTAH
SHORTWAVE TO COME ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT...PHASING AS WELL
WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY IN EASTERN
WASHINGTON. THE WHOLE SITUATION LOOKS SO SIMILAR TO A WINTER
SYNOPTIC STORM SYSTEM...EXCEPT THIS IS SUMMER AND WERE DEALING WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 2 INCHES AND UNSTABLE AIR. ALL MODELS SHOW
A JET COUPLING SCENARIO WITH A STRONG FRONTOGENESIS/FRONTOLYSIS
ZONE SETTING UP. THE CIRCULATION WILL LIKELY PICK UP INSTABILITY
FROM THE SOUTH...CAUSING THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ON
THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONTOGENESIS AND FRONTOLYSIS. THIS ZONE
HAS DEFINITELY DRIFTED SOUTH IN THE ENTIRE 10.12Z MODEL GUIDANCE...
WITH A CONSENSUS ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL RUNS SUCH AS THE DOWNSCALED NAM
ARE PRODUCING AS MUCH AS 4 TO 7 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL IN THE
FRONTOGENESIS ZONE. HOWEVER...ITS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THIS AXIS MAY
SHIFT NORTH OR SOUTH. AS A RESULT...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUED
ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE AXIS. ITS POSSIBLE THE
WATCH MAY NEED A TIER OF COUNTIES EXPANSION SOUTHWARD...PARTICULARLY
IF THE 10.12Z REGIONAL CANADIAN PANS OUT. MORE ON THE HYDROLOGY
IMPACTS BELOW IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION. BESIDES FLOODING...THERE
IS ALSO A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF US
HIGHWAY 18. DURING THE EVENING HOURS...THE WARM FRONT MAY LIFT AS
FAR NORTH AS THAT HIGHWAY...AS SUGGESTED IN THE 10.12Z
CANADIAN/ECMWF/NAM. IF SO...THE ENVIRONMENT HAS VERY FAVORABLE
SHEAR FOR ROTATING STORMS AND EVEN TORNADOES. THE PROBLEM MAY BE
THE CAPE WHICH IS MUCH HIGHER TO THE SOUTH NEAR I-80. THUS THE
SLIGHT RISK ON SPCS DAY 2 OUTLOOK.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO DEPART THE PRECIPITATION QUICKER ON
FRIDAY...IN RESPONSE TO THE PHASED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING AWAY FROM
THE REGION AND BRINGING IN SUBSIDENCE. FOLLOWED SUIT BUT DID KEEP
SOME LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
10.12Z ECMWF/GFS LINGERING AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER WESTERN WI.
CLOUDS STILL MAY TAKE AWHILE TO CLEAR...THOUGH...GIVEN SUBSIDENCE
AND TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THESE CLOUDS WILL HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN. MOST OF THE CLEARING SHOULD START TO OCCUR FRIDAY
NIGHT...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF I-90.

FOR THE WEEKEND...MUCH OF SATURDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY WITH THE
AREA DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACTIVE WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE PUSHED SOUTH TOWARDS I-70.
HOWEVER...FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
ROLL BACK INTO THE REGION. THESE ARE CAUSED BY A SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE AREA...BRINGING THE
WARM FRONT AND THE MOIST...UNSTABLE GULF OF MEXICO AIR WITH IT.
STILL SOME DISAGREEMENTS WITH THE MODELS ON THE CONVECTION...BUT THE
10.12Z CANADIAN/ECMWF BOTH WANT TO BRING A STRIPE OF 1-2 INCHES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WOULD ONLY EXACERBATE ANY RIVER
FLOODING. SOMETHING TO WATCH...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ECMWF
CONSISTENCY. THE 10.12Z GFS HAS TRENDED A BIT MORE WET AS WELL. MAY
NEED TO ALSO WATCH SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL AS THE ECMWF SHOWS DECENT 0-
6KM/0-3KM SHEAR.

NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO FEATURE MOSTLY A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN U.S. UNTIL ABOUT MIDWEEK WHEN TROUGHING FORMS OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN U.S. TO BUMP UP RIDGING DOWNSTREAM. THE TRICK IS TIMING
SHORTWAVES THROUGH THIS FLOW THAT CAN HELP TRIGGER SHOWERS AND
STORMS. RIGHT NOW THE GFS/CANADIAN AND ECMWF DO NOT AGREE AT ALL ON
WHEN...THUS THE FORECAST BROAD-BRUSHES 20 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCES.
WITH THE HIGH ZONAL FLOW...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR
SEASONABLE NORMS...AND BRIEF HUMID PERIODS AS SHORTWAVES PULL THE
MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

OBVIOUS VFR ACROSS REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. EVENTUALLY
CLOUD DEBRIS FROM DECAYING CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS TO WEST WILL SWEEP IN
TONIGHT BUT MAIN FOCUS WILL BE LATER THURSDAY AS STRONG SHORT WAVE
AND RELATED SURGE OF MOISTURE PUSHES INTO REGION.

WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SHOULD FORM SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AS WAVE APPROACHES AND LOW LEVEL JET RESPONSE KICKS IN.
THESE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS WILL SWEEP IN AFTER DAY BREAK.
SOME LOCATIONS...LIKE KRST...COULD SEE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
CONVECTION WITH ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN LIMITING FLIGHT RULES TO IFR OR
LIFR AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN LATER FORECAST PERIODS.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE 1
TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED 6 INCH
AMOUNTS. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE AREA FROM SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN IS UNDER THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL. HALF OF THIS RAINFALL COULD OCCUR IN A 3-6
HOUR TIME PERIOD BETWEEN LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY
EVENING...LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING. ADDITIONALLY...ALL THIS RAIN
WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES. CONTIGENCY FORECASTS SUGGEST
MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOOD STAGE REMAIN LIKELY FOR MOST RIVERS WHERE
THE HEAVIEST RAIN FALLS...EXCEPT THE MISSISSIPPI WHICH SEEMS
LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING. NOT ALL WEATHER EVENTS
ARE THE SAME...BUT THE AXIS AND AMOUNTS COULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO
THE SEPTEMBER 22-23 2010 EVENT.

RIVER BASINS CURRENTLY OF CONCERN INCLUDE BLACK...TREMPEALEAU...
BUFFALO...ROOT...ZUMBRO...CEDAR AND MISSISSIPPI.

ADDITIONALLY...WE NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON ADDITIONAL RAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WHICH COULD EITHER SLOW THE DROP OF
RIVERS OR EXACERABATE FLOODING CONCERNS. THERE ARE HINTS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES POSSIBLE.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR WIZ017-029-034-042>044.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR WIZ032-033-041.

MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR MNZ079-086>088-094>096.

IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR IAZ008-009.

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...SHEA
HYDROLOGY...AJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

1141 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015

CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED RIDGING OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
FROM SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. SHORTWAVES OF NOTE INCLUDE TWO OVER NORTHWEST WI AND
NORTHWEST ONTARIO...SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THERE.
THERE IS ALSO A SURFACE COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE NORTHWEST
ONTARIO WAVE...EXTENDING INTERNATIONAL FALLS MN TO PIERRE SD. SO FAR
THERE IS LIMITED CONVECTION ON THE FRONT. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF SUN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND 925MB TEMPS WARMING TO NOW IN THE 23C NEAR I-
39 TO AROUND 27C NEAR I-35 PER ACARS SOUNDINGS HAS SUPPORTED
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S...WARMEST ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. DEEP DRY AIRMASS IN THE 12Z MPX SOUNDING HAS
ALLOWED DEWPOINTS TO MIX DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. THESE LOW
DEWPOINTS ARE GREATLY REDUCING CAPE ALONG THE FRONT...AND COMBINED
WITH THE SHORTWAVES OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST REDUCING DYNAMIC
FORCING...IS WHY CONVECTION HAS BEEN LIMITED ON THE FRONT.
LASTLY...WELL TO OUR SOUTHWEST...A MULTITUDE OF SHORTWAVES WERE
PRESENT OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...UTAH AND ARIZONA...WHICH INCLUDES
THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE BLANCA. THESE ARE PROGGED TO TAKE AIM AT
THE AREA LATE THURSDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER ON THE 12Z TUSCON
SOUNDING WAS 1.6 INCHES.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DIVING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS THE NORTHWEST ONTARIO HEADS SOUTHEAST. IT
APPEARS ANY CONVECTION THAT MAY IGNITE ALONG THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL MN WILL FALL APART AS IT ENTERS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING. THIS IS DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THE
LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT AND THE MAIN DYNAMICS
WELL TO THE NORTH. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONGER STORM TRACKING ACROSS
TAYLOR COUNTY BEING CLOSER TO THE DYNAMICS...WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS
AND HAIL GIVEN THE INVERTED-V SOUNDING ENVIRONMENT. KEPT SOME 15-30
PERCENT CHANCES IN FOR THE EVENING...HIGHEST NORTHWEST. AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY CONDITIONS LOOK DRY AS SUBSIDENCE AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...PLUS A RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP CLOSE TO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 DEWPOINTS. PLENTY
OF SUN LOOKS TO BE ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY. 925MB TEMPS DEFINITELY
COOLER TOMORROW...18-20C AT 18Z...BUT THESE SHOULD STILL SUPPORT
HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S GIVEN A DRY AIRMASS...WARMEST
SOUTH. THAT DRY AIRMASS REFLECTED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPING TO
0.75 INCHES SHOULD ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO MIX PRETTY WELL AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015

A NUMBER OF FEATURES ARE COMING TOGETHER TO PRODUCE A HEAVY RAINFALL
EVENT THU AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WITH A SMALLER 100 MILE
BAND OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OUR GENERAL REGION BETWEEN
WISCONSIN HIGHWAY 29 AND U.S. HIGHWAY 20.

1. DPVA FROM SHORTWAVE DYNAMICS. VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS ON
BRINGING THE COLLECTIVE OF SHORTWAVES IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
THROUGH NEBRASKA AND KS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN INTO AND EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY.

2. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE. NOT ONLY DO THE SHORTWAVES BRING THE DEEPER
PACIFIC MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF BLANCA...FAIRLY
STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS TO
PROPEL GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE NORTHWARD. AS SUCH...OUR PRECIPITABLE
WATER CLIMBS DRAMATICALLY...REACHING 1.5 - 2 INCHES BY 00Z
FRIDAY...HIGHEST ACROSS THE ENTIRE STATE OF IA. THIS HIGH LEVEL OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER...OVER 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL...DOES NOT LEAVE THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFTER 18Z FRI.

3. RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION FROM AN 80-100 KT JET STREAK AT 200MB
HOVERING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES

4. IMPRESSIVE FRONTOGENESIS BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 700MB
ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVES...ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW TRACK.

5. ADVECTION OF CAPE...ALBEIT LESS THAN 500 J/KG...INTO THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATION

6. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS UP AROUND 4000 METERS...WITH THE STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS CENTERED IN THE WARM CLOUD.

A VARIETY OF MODEL QPFS FROM THE GFS...NAM AND ECMWF SUGGESTS 1 TO 2
INCHES IS EASILY LIKELY...WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THAT
SMALLER BAND. WHERE THE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FALLS...FLOODING OF
RIVERS IS LIKELY...ALONG WITH URBAN AND POSSIBLY AREAL FLOODING.
HOWEVER...THAT LOCATION IS VERY HARD TO PIN DOWN WITH THE 09.00Z
CIPS ANALOGS AND ECMWF SUGGESTING NORTHERN IOWA...THE 09.12Z NAM
ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA TO I-90...THE 09.12Z ECMWF ALONG I-90 TO GREEN
BAY...AND THE 09.12Z CANADIAN/GFS JUST NORTH OF I-90.

A FLOOD WATCH HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE
DISAGREEMENT ON EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONTOGENESIS BAND SETS UP...AND
THE EVENT STILL BEING 48-72 HOURS OUT. HOWEVER...A WATCH WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED.

AS THE SHORTWAVES PULL OUT OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WE SHOULD SEE A DRIER PERIOD THANKS TO SUBSIDENCE AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. HAVE LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACCORDINGLY TO NOW DRY IN OUR NORTHWEST HALF. STILL MAINTAINED SOME
20 PERCENT CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF IN THE EVENT THE SHORTWAVES
PULL OUT SLOWER LIKE THE 09.12Z CANADIAN. AFTER SATURDAY AND THROUGH
NEXT TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES MOSTLY IN THE 30-50 PERCENT
RANGE LITTER THE FORECAST. THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE SOME DRY
PERIODS...BUT TIMING THAT LOOKS EXTREMELY PROBLEMATIC AS WE SIT IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST U.S..
THERE ARE SOME HINTS IN THE 09.00Z/12Z ECMWF OF ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE RIDGE AND IMPACTING THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE
TAME. GIVEN WHAT HAPPENS THU/FRI...WE DEFINITELY DO NOT THE ECMWF
RAIN. BEING UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL FLOW WITH OFF AND ON
PRECIPITATION...WE SHOULD HOVER NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS FOR HIGHS AND
LOWS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT MEANDERS ACROSS THE TAF SITES. PLAN ON VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. A FEW TO SCT CIRRUS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW PATCHES OF BR AND MVFR
VISIBILITIES ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BEFORE THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH TONIGHT. ALSO...SOME SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES
COULD DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE REGION CAUSING SOME SLIGHT VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015

A 100 MILE WIDE BAND OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...ON THE ORDER OF 3 TO
5 INCHES AND POSSIBLY HIGHER...IS LOOKING TO FALL SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
WISCONSIN HIGHWAY 29 AND U.S. HIGHWAY 20 IN OUR REGION BETWEEN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY MORNING. RIVER CONTINGENCY FORECASTS
USING THESE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL SUGGESTS GAUGES ON ANY RIVER
EXCEPT THE MISSISSIPPI COULD REACH MODERATE OR MAJOR STAGE. THE
MISSISSIPPI COULD CLIMB AT LEAST TO MINOR. AREAL AND URBAN
FLOODING WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE...AND LIKELY SHOULD THE BAND SET
UP OVER LA CROSSE OR AUSTIN. ITS WORTH NOTING THAT HALF OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED RAINFALL MAY FALL IN 3 HOURS ACCORDING TO HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE...SUGGESTING SOME FLASH FLOODING
POTENTIAL.

THE NEXT 2 DAYS WILL ALL BE ABOUT PINNING DOWN THE EXACT LOCATION OF
THE BAND OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
HYDROLOGY...AJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

1158 PM MDT THU JUN 11 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 747 PM MDT THU JUN 11 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM MDT THU JUN 11 2015

...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO...

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM MDT THU JUN 11 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM MDT THU JUN 11 2015

ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE
NIGHT...BUT AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...LOOK FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MORESO OVER THE PALMER DVD
BETWEEN 12-15Z. VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY...BUT LOOK FOR MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE E PLAINS INCLUDING KCOS AND KPUB
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH APPROX 20-22Z TOMORROW.

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR COZ058>089-093>099.

UPDATE...MOORE
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MOORE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

1252 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK BOUNDARY HAS SETTLED DOWN INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY. IT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD LATE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE HEADS
EASTWARD INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK. THE LOW REACHES THE MARITIMES SATURDAY
TRAILING THE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MIDNIGHT ESTF: SHOWERS ARE DRYING OUT RAPIDLY AND FASTER THAN THE
TENDING TO BE OVEREXUBERANT HRRR. RAP BETTER ON THIS TREND.

OUTFLOW HAS SUNK SOUTHWARD TO JUST NEAR I-95 AT 0430Z.

A WARM SUMMER NIGHT IS IN PROGRESS AND MUCH OF THE COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURE DEPARTURE FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE HAS BEEN
NEUTRALIZED AND CERTAINLY WE`LL BE BASIC NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
MONTH AFTER TODAY-THE 12TH IS COMPLETED.

DURING THE DAY TODAY...HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES WITH LITTLE CHANGE
IN OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PRIOR FORECAST TEAM/MODEL
CYCLE.

A POSSIBLE NEAR RECORD WARM DAY IS EXPECTED IN THE PHILADELPHIA
AREA (WITHIN 2F). WIND DIRECTION MAY PLAY A ROLE WHETHER WE CAN BE
WARM ENOUGH FOR NEAR RECORD...CERTAINLY 90-95 MUCH OF I-95.
LATEST AVBL GFS/ECMWF OP CYCLE 2M TEMPS FCSTS ARE 2-3F WARMER
THAN 18Z THU. 850 TEMPS ABOUT THE SAME SO I WONT BE BULLISH ON
FCSTG TEMPS 2-3F WARMER BUT A QUICKER START IS EXPECTED, POSSIBLY
BY 5 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY NEAR I-95.

CONVECTION: NON EXPECTED THIS MORNING. ITS POSSIBLE THE
DISSIPATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MIGHT IGNITE ISOLATED CONVECTION TO
ITS NORTH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON... I-80 TO I-78 E-W CORRIDOR BUT AM
THINKING NOT, SINCE MODELED KI IS UNDER 30C AT 18Z AS A DRY SLOT
IN KI DEVELOPS NEWD FROM VA AS WE WROTE/READ THIS DISCUSSION.

SO THEN WE LOOK TO MUCH IMPROVED CHANCES FOR CONVECTION MOVING
EWD FROM CENTRAL PA TO NEAR I-95 AROUND 00Z/13 WITH ISOLATED SVR
POTENTIAL. THE CAUSE IS THE APPALACHIANS LEE SIDE TROUGH.

HEAT ADVY CONTINUES.

GENERALLY 50 50 BLENDED 00Z/12 NCEP GUIDANCE WILL COMPRISE THIS
330 AM FRIDAY FCST.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
THE PRIMARY COOL FRONT SHOULD BE SPAWNING UPSTREAM BANDS OF HEAVY
CONVECTION SO THAT ANYTHING OCCURRING THIS EVENING IN OUR AREA
DIES OUT BY 11 PM AND THEN FOLLOWED BY A PRIMARY DECAYING SQUALL
LINE ACROSS PORTIONS OF E PA AND NW NJ (ALONG AND N OF I-78) IN
THE 06Z-10Z TIME FRAME...DYING OUT AS SCT SHOWERS NEAR I-95 AT
DAWN SATURDAY. SPC WRF IS LACKLUSTER ON THIS HOLDING TOGETHER
AFTER 05Z INTO OUR AREA.

ANOTHER VERY WARM NIGHT. MIN TEMP PHL PROBABLY 75 TO 77F.

GENERALLY 50 50 BLENDED 00Z/12 NCEP GUIDANCE WILL COMPRISE THIS
330 AM FRIDAY FCST.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE EARLY IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. DEW POINTS INTO SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S IN MOST AREAS. THIS COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 ON
SATURDAY WILL BRING HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE LOW 90S IN MANY
AREAS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SAT AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...BRINGING A CHC FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE PWAT VALUES BEING RATHER HIGH ACROSS THE
AREA.

WE WILL WRITE A DRY FCST FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY FOR NOW. THERE
SEEMS TO BE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE BACK
INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK NEAR SEASONAL NORMS...MAYBE
A DEGREE OR SO ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S SOUTH AND
UPPER 70S/LOW 80S NORTH.

THE CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS INCREASE AGAIN MON AFTERNOON AND THEY
CARRY INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND STALLS ACROSS THE AREA. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL TRIGGER
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT HOLD SHORT OF 90 DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS.

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z...VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT. LIGHT WIND...MOSTLY
SOUTH SOUTHWEST SOUTH OF KPHL AND VARIABLE KPHL NORTHWARD.
A LITTLE MVFR HAZE FOG POSSIBLE BY DAWN.

AFTER 12Z TODAY...VFR SCT CLOUDS AOA 6000 FT. ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE,
MAINLY AFTER 22Z KRDG/KABE. PROBABILITY WAS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
THE TAF BUT MAY ADD HERE AT 06Z ISSUANCE. LIGHT WIND THIS MORNING
TRENDING E-SE VCNTY KRDG/KABE/KTTN AND S-SW ELSEWHERE THEN
BECOMING SW EVERYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 15 KT.

TONIGHT...VFR SCT CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT WITH A POSSIBLE MVFR TSTM
WITH NW GUST 20-30 KT VCNTY KRDG/KABE AFTER 06Z ASSTD WITH PRE
COLD FRONTAL SQUALL LINE DYING OUT IN OUR AREA...HAVING ARRIVED
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND NW PA EARLIER FRIDAY EVENING. SW WIND
5-15 KT SHIFTING W TOWARD 10Z SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN THRU TUE...MOSTLY VFR. SHOWERS POSSIBLE MON AFTERNOON THRU
TUE.

.MARINE...
SUB SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH GENERALLY S-SW WINDS
TRENDING SLIGHTLY ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED MUCH OF THE TIME. SCT TSTMS WILL
CREATE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS SATURDAY THRU SAT NIGHT.

.RIP CURRENTS...
SURF ZONE AWARENESS CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY. MEDIA PLAY A LARGE
ROLE IN AWARENESS. EMPHASIS, FOR ULTIMATE SWIM IN THE PRESENCE OF
LIFEGUARDS!

MORE AT 4 AM.

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NJZ015-017>019.
DE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA/DRAG 1252A
NEAR TERM...DRAG 1252A
SHORT TERM...DRAG 1252A
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA 1252A
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA 1252A
RIP CURRENTS...1252A

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

555 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY EXPAND
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
THE MAIN CONCERNS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT
AND INTO TOMORROW.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

WITHERING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH FGEN/ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY
TO STRUGGLE OUTSIDE OF OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES THROUGH THE MORNING
GIVEN BETTER FORCING AND LLJ/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/MUCAPE ARE STILL
DISPLACED JUST TO OUR WEST. THAT WILL CHANGE BY LATER TODAY AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND PARENT SHORTWAVE MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES. ADEQUATE SYNOPTIC FORCING IN A VERY MOIST AND AT
LEAST MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LEAD TO MOST AREAS
SEEING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT SOME POINT TODAY. QUESTION
REMAINS EXACT TIMING/EVOLUTION AND SEVERE CHANCES.

HI-RES MODELS ARE SPLIT ON HOW ROBUST THIS PREFRONTAL CONVECTION
WILL BE. HRRR AND RAP SUGGEST LITTLE MORE THAN SCT SHOWERS THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH MAIN ACTIVITY CONFINED TO THE AFTERNOON FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WRF-NMM INDICATES INITIAL LINE WILL BE MUCH MORE
ACTIVE...CAPITALIZING ON SOME DIURNAL RECOVERY BY 15Z IN OUR
SOUTHEAST HALF. TRUTH IS LIKELY SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. EXPECT SCT
CONVECTION TO STEADILY CHURN E/SE THROUGH MIDDAY BUT BEST CHANCES
FOR STRONGER/MORE ORGANIZED STORMS WILL BE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH MAIN FRONTAL PASSAGE. AS ALWAYS...EARLY DAY PRECIP
MAKES SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES NEBULOUS. EXCELLENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL MAKE CLOUD COVER/SOLAR HEATING LESS CONSEQUENTIAL
WITH LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS STILL GENERATING 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE
BUT PREFRONTAL CONVECTION COULD STILL THROW A LARGE MONKEY WRENCH
INTO THE WORKS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS AROUND 30 KTS (HIGHEST IN OUR
NORTHERN CWA) SO ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS ARE POSSIBLE. WIND PROFILE IS
FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SO STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND BOWING SEGMENTS ARE
THE PRIMARY CONCERN...THOUGH SOME HAIL IS POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH
INSTABILITY MANAGES TO BUILD. ALL OF THIS IS TO SAY THERE IS
DEFINITELY A CONDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS
THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE NAILING DOWN MORE SPECIFICS. ALSO A HEAVY
RAIN THREAT GIVEN PW VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES AND STORM MOTION NEARLY
PARALLEL TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LOCALIZED FLOODING CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
BUT CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD THREAT IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR WATCH
ISSUANCE. WILL JUST CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN
HWO AND GRIDS.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE/SHIFT SOUTHEAST BY LATE EVENING AND
EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S BUT ANY PEAKS OF SUN WILL MAKE UPPER 80S
EASILY ATTAINABLE. POSTFRONTAL OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE MUCH MORE
COMFORTABLE THAN PRESENT VALUES...UPPER 50S NORTHWEST TO MID 60S
SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO LONG TERM PERIOD AS OSCILLATING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS REMAIN IN RATHER
GOOD AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY FOR THIS PATTERN BUT A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DETAILS AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

BOUNDARY WILL BE SINKING SOUTH ON SATURDAY BUT REMAINING CLOSE
ENOUGH TO SOUTH FOR LOW CHANCE POPS AS EXACT LOCATION YET TO BE
DETERMINED. RESIDUAL CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE NORTH OF
FRONT. BOUNDARY BEGINS TO COME BACK NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
WITH INCREASING CONVECTIVE CHANCES ONCE AGAIN. PLENTY OF MOISTURE
FLUX AND INSTABILITY PRESENT SO WILL NOT TAKE MUCH FOR PERIODIC SHRA
AND TSRA THROUGH MONDAY. FRONT LOOKS TO SAG SOUTH OF AREA ONCE AGAIN
TOWARD TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SKIRTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
TRIES TO DRY US OUT FOR A DAY. WILL STILL CARRY A LOW POP WITH
UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION. LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
COME BACK NORTH TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
POSSIBLE THROUGH END OF PERIOD. EPISODIC ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER
REMAIN POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON TIMING OF FRONT AND STRONGER
KINEMATICS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH
PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 555 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SPREAD EASTWARD
TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE EXPECTED GIVEN DECENT FORCING AND VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT
BUT EXACT TIMING REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN. CURRENTLY EXPECT BEST
CHANCES FOR THUNDER DURING THE MIDAFTERNOON BUT COULD BE EARLIER
AT KSBN. GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BUT POSTFRONTAL CAA AND
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SOME STRATUS. IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KSBN WHILE CONFIDENCE AT KFWA IS LOWER.

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...AGD

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

455 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AND TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL STALL ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY...THEN RETURN BACK
NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS FRONT WILL
OSCILLATE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...MAINTAINING
DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE.

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD AREAS TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE INDY METRO EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY WEAKENING
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF ILLINOIS. SKIES WERE
MAINLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. TEMPS REMAINED IN THE
MID AND UPPER 70S AS OF 07Z.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN IOWA...WITH A
NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF
ILLINOIS...INDIANA AND OHIO. THE LOW WILL TRACK EAST ALONG THE
BOUNDARY TODAY...SERVING AS THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

CURRENT MESOANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATING AXIS OF
DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST AS AREA OF
CONVECTION APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY TO
MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY IN A WEAKENED STATE NEAR AND
JUST AFTER DAYBREAK...BUT ANTICIPATE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS DRY THROUGH THE MORNING. COMBINATION OF STRONG DIURNAL
HEATING AND EXPANSION OF 40KT LOW LEVEL JET INTO THE REGION WILL
PROMOTE AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING BY MIDDAY AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. HRRR CONTINUES TO BE RATHER AGGRESSIVE IN MORE
EXPANSIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY 16Z WHICH LOOKS
OVERDONE CONSIDERING LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. WILL KEEP POPS
PRIMARILY IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR EXPECTED SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT.

EXPECT AN UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES
AS THE LOW MOVES INTO NORTHERN INDIANA...WITH UPPER FORCING AND BL
SHEAR INCREASING. IN ADDITION...AXIS OF HIGHEST PRECIP WATER VALUES
AROUND 2 INCHES WILL POOL ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. COMBINED WITH
EXPECTED TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S...THIS SHOULD PRODUCE AN AREA OF
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG BY LATE DAY.
HI-RES GUIDANCE PICKING UP ON THIS THINKING WITH ROBUST CONVECTION
DEVELOPING. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS HIGHEST FOR THE REGION
AS THIS ACTIVITY FORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPANDS SOUTH INTO
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. CERTAINLY ANTICIPATE A
DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING DRY ADIABATIC
FLOW UP THROUGH 800MB. LOCAL BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS BETWEEN STORMS
COULD CERTAINLY PRESENT POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO AS WELL.
STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINERS AS WELL WITH HIGH PWATS AND
FREEZING LEVELS IN THE VICINITY OF 15KFT.

TEMPS...ITS TEMPTING TO GO FOR A THIRD STRAIGHT DAY AT 90 IN
INDY...BUT CLOUD DEBRIS FROM MORNING STORMS TO OUR WEST AND
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED REDEVELOPMENT AS EARLY AS MIDDAY MAY BE A
BIT TOO MUCH TO OVERCOME. GENERALLY TOOK A MOS BLEND...WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. BEST SHOT AT LOWER 90S WILL
EXIST ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WILL FEEL DISTINCTLY
MORE HUMID TODAY AS MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DEWPOINTS
RISE TO AROUND 70.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE ON CONVECTIVE CHANCES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AT 00Z THIS EVENING...EXPANDING SOUTH
THROUGH MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE WEAKENING NEAR OR JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE THREATS MENTIONED ABOVE IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION WILL
PERSIST...ESPECIALLY THE DAMAGING WIND AND HEAVY RAIN. THE FOCUS
WILL SHIFT TO PRIMARILY TORRENTIAL RAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A LARGE
ABOVE FREEZING LAYER THROUGH 14-15KFT SUPPORTING WARM RAIN PROCESSES
AND STORMS WITH HIGH RAINFALL RATES. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY WITH THESE STORMS.

THE LOW WILL TRACK INTO OHIO WITH THE BOUNDARY SLIPPING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SHOULD
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST U S WILL EXERT ITS INFLUENCE WITH RIDGING ALOFT
EXPANDING INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER ENERGY MOVES AWAY
TO THE EAST. COMBINATION OF THE EXPANDING RIDGE AND LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL HELP TO PUSH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BACK NORTH INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY.

SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS INSTABILITY LEVELS PEAK. IN THE ABSENCE OF FORCING
ALOFT...INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRIMARY CATALYSTS
IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. MOST STORMS WILL REMAIN SUBSEVERE...
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. AFTER A BRIEF DROP
SATURDAY...PRECIP WATER VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEAR SUMMER PEAKS IN
THE VICINITY OF 2 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM.
STORM MOTIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE SLOWER WITH WEAKER FLOW ALOFT...WITH
LOCALIZED SOAKERS. STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

TEMPS...A MOS BLEND LOOKED REASONABLE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIPPING INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY AND
EXPECTATION OF MORE CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
WARMER TEMPS WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY WITH THE EXPANSION OF THE RIDGE.
EXPECT LOWS FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

TYPICAL...IF SOMEWHAT ACTIVE...SUMMERTIME PATTERN EXPECTED FOR THE
COMING WORK WEEK WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IMPINGING UPON THE REGION
AND THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST COMBINING
TO NECESSITATE THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ESSENTIALLY EVERY PERIOD.

THAT SAID...DO NOT EXPECT A TOTAL WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS...AND HAVE
BUMPED MAX TEMPS UP A BIT EARLY IN THE WEEK AS A RESULT AS TYPICAL
MODEL TENDENCY TO OVERDO COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP IS LIKELY
IMPACTING MODEL TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT.

SHOULD SEE TEMPS NEAR TO JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 12/09Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

ADDED VCTS MENTION TO LAF AROUND 11Z WITH THIN LINE OF WEAK STORMS
APPROACHING THE SITE. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO UPSTREAM
DEVELOPMENT TO ADD AT OTHERS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 1229 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

REMNANTS OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY ENTERING WESTERN ILLINOIS WILL
PROBABLY BE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE AROUND
121100Z. SOME OF THE MODEL DATA SUGGEST SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY
BUILD DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. APPEARS BETTER
THREAT WILL SPREAD OVER THE TAF SITES AFTER 121800Z.

OTHERWISE...INCREASING LAYERED CLOUD COVER ABOVE 050 OVERNIGHT AND
INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SOME ELEVATED CONVECTIVE TYPE CLOUD BASED
050-060 POSSIBLE BY MID TO LATE MORNING FRIDAY.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 180-200 DEGREES AT 6-9 KTS
OVERNIGHT...VEERING AROUND TO 210-230 DEGREES WITH SOME GUSTS 20-24
KTS TOWARDS MIDDAY FRIDAY.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...JAS/NIELD

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

352 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED JUST
TO OUR NORTHWEST. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT KSBN COULD GET CLIPPED
WITH A THUNDERSTORM DURING THE EARLY MORNING BUT HELD WITH PRIOR
FORECAST GIVEN BEST FORCING STILL WELL UPSTREAM. CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES EAST THROUGH
THE MORNING BUT SHOULD RE-INTENSIFY BY THE AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE
PASSES AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY BUILDS. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW BUT DID MOVE IT UP A BIT BASED ON LATEST HI-
RES MODELS. PRECIP SHOULD END BY EVENING BUT SOME LOW STRATUS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KSBN...AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS GENERALLY IN PLACE.

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...AGD

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

338 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE ON CONVECTIVE CHANCES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS INSTABILITY LEVELS PEAK. IN THE ABSENCE OF FORCING
ALOFT...INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRIMARY CATALYSTS
IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. MOST STORMS WILL REMAIN SUBSEVERE...
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. AFTER A BRIEF DROP
SATURDAY...PRECIP WATER VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEAR SUMMER PEAKS IN
THE VICINITY OF 2 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. STORM
MOTIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE SLOWER WITH WEAKER FLOW ALOFT...WITH
LOCALIZED SOAKERS. STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

SHOULD SEE TEMPS NEAR TO JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 12/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1229 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

OTHERWISE...INCREASING LAYERED CLOUD COVER ABOVE 050 OVERNIGHT AND
INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SOME ELEVATED CONVECTIVE TYPE CLOUD BASED
050-060 POSSIBLE BY MID TO LATE MORNING FRIDAY.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 180-200 DEGREES AT 6-9 KTS
OVERNIGHT...VEERING AROUND TO 210-230 DEGREES WITH SOME GUSTS 20-24
KTS TOWARDS MIDDAY FRIDAY.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....NIELD
AVIATION...JAS

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

1251 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

RADAR TRENDS AT 1230 AM WERE SHOWING OVERALL WEAKENING OF THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS WITH THE
LEADING EDGE JUST REACHING OUR FAR EASTERN CWA BORDER AT MIDNIGHT.
AT THE SAME TIME...SATELLITE IR SHOWED CLOUD TOPS HAD WARMED
CONSIDERABLY. 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS...ON THE SPC MESO
OPERATIONAL RAP MODEL...SHOWS CONVERGENCE OF 1.7 TO 2.0 PW OVER SE
INTO E CENTRAL IA INTO NW IL. THIS WAS RESULTING IN CONTINUED
BACK-BUILDING AND REGENERATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
NORTHERN IL ACROSS EASTERN IA...AHEAD OF THE SURFACE AND 850 MB
LOWS LIKELY LOCATED NEAR OR JUST SE OF DSM. WHILE OBVIOUS
TRAINING OF CELLS IS NOT OCCURRING...HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL BE
LIKELY UNDER THE NEW CELLS AND ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR
MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT IS
UNLIKELY...HOWEVER...THAT ANY SITE WILL SEE THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
RATES SEEN EARLIER THIS EVENING. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

NEARLY STATIONARY EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED PRACTICALLY
PARALLEL TO INTERSTATE 80 ACROSS IA AND IL. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS
FRONT TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 70S. QUITE THE THERMAL GRADIENT WITH EAST WINDS COMING OFF
LAKE MICHIGAN KEEPING READINGS IN OUR NORTH ONLY IN THE MID 60S
(WHERE ITS RAINING) TO THE LOWER 70S (WHERE ITS CLOUDY).

SPC MESO ANALYSIS INDICATES A VERY NICE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO EASTERN IA. PRECIPITABLE
WATERS ARE 1.80 INCHES FROM WESTERN MO TO EASTERN IA. STRONG
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 50 KT WAS NOTED IN EASTERN IA AND NORTHERN
IL NEAR THE STALLED BOUNDARY. SBCAPES WERE 2000 TO 3500 J/KG JUST
SOUTH OF THE DVN CWA. EFFECTIVE SR HELICITY OF 300+ WAS NOTED IN
P0RTIONS OF EASTERN IA.

.SHORT TERM...(LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

ALL OF THE PIECES ARE STARTING TO FALL INTO PLACE REGARDING FLASH
FLOODING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. AREAS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE NEXT
12 HOURS OR SO.

FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL...

HAND ANALYSIS ALONG WITH MSAS ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN EASTERLY FLOW
OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS FLOW...ALONG WITH THE LACK OF SURFACE
HEATING DUE TO CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT THE WARM FRONT NEARLY
STATIONARY TODAY. EARLIER ANALYSIS SHOWS THE H85 LLJ...THERMAL AND
MOISTURE BOUNDARY OVER THE CWA. THE SURFACE LOW TO WEST AND SOUTH
HAS BEEN FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST BY THE MODELS. HOWEVER
PRESSURE FALLS AND TRENDS SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW IS GOING TO MOVE
MORE EAST THAN NORTH. WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES AND MOISTURE
POOLING ALONG THE WARM FRONT...THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGH RAIN RATES
WILL FORM. FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE FROM THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. OVERALL 1 TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. AN
ISOLATED 5 INCHES IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

CONVECTION IS STARTING TO FIRE ACROSS NW MO AND SE NE. THESE STORMS
WILL LIKELY FOLLOW THE LOW TRACK AND THE WARM FRONT INTO OUR AREA.
STORMS COULD BACKBUILD INTO THE H85 LLJ THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
THIS COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA. WPC HAS THE
ENTIRE CWA IN A MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...

POTENT SURFACE FRONT AND WARM FRONT WILL SIT ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE
CLOUD COVER HAS LEAD TO LOWER SBCAPE...CAPE IS MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT FROM INSOLATION...MODEST CAPE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 45
KTS...ALONG WITH 0-1KM SHEAR AT 25 TO 35 KTS SUGGESTS STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE. ANY SFC BASED STORM COULD FORM INTO A SUPERCELL WITH
ALL SEVERE WEATHER THREATS POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT. LATER ON THIS
EVENING...ELEVATED STORMS SHOULD TAKE OVER. H85 LLJ WILL FUEL
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INTO THE AREA. A WIND THREAT
WOULD THEN BE POSSIBLE WITH LATER STORMS.

OVERALL POSSIBLE IMPACTS...

FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING APPEAR TO BE THE MOST LIKELY
IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM. A FEW GAUGES COULD GO INTO FLOOD WITH THE
PROJECTED RAINFALL. ALSO DAMAGE FROM SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE AREA. EVERYONE IS ENCOURAGED TO PAY ATTENTION TO
FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE WATCHES AND WARNINGS THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT TIME PERIODS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON A CONTINUED WET PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...I WILL WALK OUT THE LINGERING SHOWERS
AND STORMS IN THE MORNING BUT THE AFTERNOON APPEARS DRY AS THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES TO OUR SOUTHEAST. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM 70
IN OUR FAR NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE SOUTHEAST. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING A DRY NIGHT TO MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE
LOWER 60S SOUTH. RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH ALREADY BY
SUNRISE SATURDAY SO I WILL MAINTAIN THE SMALL POP IN OUR FAR
SOUTH.

SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...APPEARS ANOTHER ACTIVE PATTERN
SETS UP WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
HOWEVER...WAY TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE SPECIFICS. APPEARS THE
PATTERN IS LOCKED IN FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE WITH TROUGHINESS
IN THE ROCKIES AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE MIDWEST. THE
GULF WILL BE WIDE OPEN FOR BUSINESS BUT TIMING THE INDIVIDUAL
MCS`S IS TRICKY THIS FAR OUT. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN WOULD
IMPACT ANY FLOODING ISSUES ON THE RIVERS. STAY TUNED.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED LOOK TO BE MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL BE WELL INTO
THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...IF NOT HIGHER.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS AND A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
KEEP LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE OVER THE TERMINALS FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING HAVE SINCE BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND
WILL AFFECT MOST OF THE TERMINALS UNTIL AROUND 09Z BEFORE EXITING
TO THE EAST. FOR NOW...MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY STAY
WELL SOUTH OF DBQ AND HAVE KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST THERE.
OTHERWISE...IFR CONDITIONS...DUE TO BOTH LOW CIGS AND FOG WILL
SPREAD FROM DBQ SOUTHWARD INTO THE REST OF THE TERMINALS BY
FRIDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS COMING TO AN END. THERE REMAINS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN HOW FAST CIGS WILL LIFT FROM IFR TO MVFR...AND
EVENTUALLY VFR DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...BUT VISBITILITIES ARE
LIKELY TO IMPROVE TO AT LEAST 5 MILES BY MIDDAY.

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BENTON-
BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-
IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BUREAU-
CARROLL-HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-
MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CLARK-
SCOTLAND.

UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...SHEETS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TOPEKA KS

330 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

08Z water vapor imagery shows a mid level low pressure system moving
east along the CO and NM state line. Meanwhile radar and profiler
data suggest an MCV has formed over southwestern KS. At the surface
observations show the cold front has moved through LWC and
Burlington, but may still be hung up across Anderson CO. The showers
and thunderstorm activity has had a hard time persisting across
eastern KS this morning.

For today and tonight, chances for precip remain and am wondering if
I may not be high enough with chances especially for this morning.
Overall the mid level low pressure system is progged to open up with
energy lifting into northwest KS and central NEB. Meanwhile deep
moisture should continue advecting north while the surface boundary
becomes less defined and possibly lifts north overnight. Obviously
the MCV this morning could cause showers with embedded thunderstorms
to move across the area. However high resolution models want to
weaken the areal extent of precip through the morning. The HRRR is
the most aggressive in bringing QPF into north central and east
central KS, but it looks like it may also be to for north with the
more intense convection right now. Will have to monitor trends this
morning. For tonight, the NAM is the most aggressive in developing
deep moist convection and heavy precip. Think there is the potential
for this since the GFS and NAM both show PWs increasing to around 2
inches. Additionally the weak boundary could provide some lift and
focus for convection. However instability is not expected to be all
that impressive with 700 to 500 MB lapse rates around 5.5 C/KM.
Considered the need for a flood or flash flood watch. However
confidence in when excessive rainfall is most likely is not very
good and rather put out a watch for the entire area that lasts 36 or
48 hours, have opted to wait and let later shifts reevaluate the
later model solutions. Aside from the flooding risk, severe weather
in general seems to be a low probability of occurrence. 0-6KM shear
vectors are rather modest and with cloud cover likely lasting
through much of the day, it is hard to envision strong daytime
heating behind the front. If there were going to be a risk for hail
or damaging winds, I think it would likely be across east central KS
south of I-35 if the sun was able to break out. Even then it looks
to be marginal for hail and wind. The clouds and possible showers
should keep diurnal trends to about 10 degrees F. This would give
highs in the mid 70s to near 80. Lows tonight are forecast to fall
into the mid 60s with the chance for rain cooled air possibly
knocking another degree or two off that.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

Broad southwest troughing and precip chances continue across the central
plains through most of the extended period. The main forecast
challenges are narrowing down higher precip chances and locations
for heaviest rainfall.

On Saturday and Sunday, main PV anomaly that previously tracked eastward
across Kansas on Friday evening will pivot towards the northeast
during the afternoon and evening. All guidance is somewhat similar
with the track of the upper trough lifting directly over the CWA,
while timing is a bit different between models. Moisture transport
vectors increase as the warm front lifts northward, raising PWAT
values close to 2 inches, higher than forecast values from previous
days. Also worthy of note is that 2 inches is between the 99th
percentile and the maximum observed precipitable water for climatology.
Based on the copious amounts of moisture and optimal forcing, have
placed the highest thunderstorm chances beginning Saturday
afternoon, peaking to definite Saturday evening, and then remaining
likely through Sunday evening for much of the CWA. The decision was
to wait in issuing headlines for this time due to some uncertainty
in where the axis of heavy precip sets up. Placement of the trough axis
during the day Saturday may focus any thunderstorms across central
KS before activity spreads eastward overnight into Sunday.

Any storms that develop during the late afternoons may be
marginally severe. While little to no inhibition maximizes sfc CAPE
between 1500 and 2000 J/KG, effective shear stays on the low side
near 20 kts, mitigating stronger, rotating updrafts from forming.

With the passing system the frontal boundary swings back southward
on Monday. Latest guidance is beginning to trend the boundary along
and south of Interstate 70 during the afternoon and evening,
focusing the better thunderstorm chances in these areas. The GFS and
ECMWF is beginning to show a glimpse of relief in rainfall by
Tuesday as a stronger mid level wave will help eject the remnants of
the cutoff low across the southern plains eastward by Thursday.
Before then, kept the chance for thunderstorms focused mainly south of
Interstate 70 where better forcing exists. Rainfall totals at the
end of this event may easily range from 2 to 6 or more inches.

In terms of temps, overcast skies with off an on rainfall will keep
readings near 80 degrees in the afternoons with overnight lows mild
in the upper 60s. By the end of the period, may see more breaks in
the clouds over north central KS to see higher readings in the mid
80s.

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 622 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

Forecast concerns are initially timing of potential convection at
TOP/FOE and associated wind shift. Wind has shifted at MHK
although they have an outflow headed toward terminal over the next
hour. Lower MVFR/IFR cigs then come in behind the front in the
cooler air, timed at MHK at 02z and TOP/FOE around 04Z. Precip
redevelops later tomorrow morning but more likely in the form of
showers or drizzle, and not confident it will hit terminals and
will hold as VCSH at this time.

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...67

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

350 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

1004MB SFC LOW IS OVER SE IOWA AS OF 07Z...WELL TO THE SOUTH OF
WHERE IT WAS SUPPOSED TO BE TRACKING. SO...THE HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED
TO IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL UPR MICHIGAN ALSO STAYED WELL TO THE SOUTH
CLOSER TO SFC WARM FRONT AND MORE CONCENTRATED SHRA/TSRA. LATEST
RADAR LOOP AND HRRR OUTPUT DO SUGGEST LGT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
CLIP FAR SCNTRL THROUGH 13-14Z AS SHORTWAVE OVER CNTRL WI SLIDES EAST
NORTHEAST. PRECIP AMOUNTS LESS THAN 0.05 INCH SO FAR AT KMNM.
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS TIL THE RAIN ENDS SHOULD CHECK IN LESS THAN 0.25
INCH.

TOUGH TO SEE WITH MID-HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD...BUT BASED ON VISUAL
OBSERVATION AT OUR OFFICE...LOW CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN WITH WEAK EAST-NORTHEAST
LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON FAR NORTH SIDE OF THE SFC LOW. MAKES SENSE AS THIS
AREA IS JUST TO WESTERN EDGE OF THICKER MID CLOUDS. RAP/NAM/LOCAL
WRF-ARW ALL POINT TO THESE LOW CLOUDS ONLY EXPANDING THROUGH
DAYBREAK...BEFORE GRADUALLY THINNING OUT BY LATE MORNING AS MIXING
INTO THE DRY AIRMASS SETTLING OVERHEAD TAKES A TOLL. ANY FOG THUS
FAR OVER LAND HAS BEEN PATCHY GROUND TYPE WITH VSBY DOWN BLO 1SM AT
TIMES. BASED ON AVAILABLE OBSERVATIONS AND WEB CAMS...FOG DOES NOT
SEEM TO BE WIDESPREAD. WILL NOT EMPHASIZE THE FOG BUT WILL KEEP
SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY LONGER FOR THE CNTRL THIS MORNING.

ONCE SKIES CLEAR LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...EXPECT A CHILLY
NIGHT INLAND OVER THE WEST AS DRY AIRMASS MOVES OVERHEAD /PWATS DOWN
BLO 0.4 INCH/ AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT BENEATH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS. LOWERED MIN TEMPS INTO THE UPR 30S AT THE TYPICAL
COOL SPOTS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM WL FOCUS ON POPS/POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HEAVY RA THAT WL ACCOMPANY A SHRTWV LIFTING NEWD INTO THE GREAT
LKS/SURGE IN PWAT ON SUN WITHIN A DEEP SW FLOW ALOFT TO THE E OF A
TROF DIGGING INTO THE NRN PLAINS. LOOKS LIKE TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WL
BE NOT FAR FM NORMAL BUT THEN TREND COOLER NEXT WEEK AS THE TROF
SHIFTS OVER THE UPR LKS.

SAT...HI PRES IS FCST TO BE OVER NE LK SUP ON SUN AS UPR RDG AXIS
SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE E. WITH DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND H85 TEMPS FCST
IN THE 11-13C RANGE...EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND MAX TEMPS
IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 AWAY FM THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF THE LKS.
GIVEN SE H925 FLOW...THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF LK MI WL BE MORE SGFNT.

SAT NGT...UPR FLOW OVER UPR MI IS FCST TO TURN TO THE SW FLOW BTWN
UPR RDG SHIFTING TO THE E AND UPR TROF MOVING FM THE ROCKIES INTO
THE NRN PLAINS. SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE NEAR
WI BY 12Z SUN. MODELS SHOW PWAT INCRSG TO ABOUT 1.5 INCHES BY 12Z
SUN AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE...SO EXPECT INCRSG CLDS WITH SOME
SHOWERS MOVING INTO AT LEAST THE WI BORDER COUNTIES BY SUNRISE.
DESPITE INCRSG PWAT...MODELS SHOW MARGINAL LAPSE RATES/LIMITED
INSTABILITY...SO WL NOT INCLUDE A MENTION OF TS.

SUN/SUN NGT...DEEP...ALBEIT RELATIVELY LGT SW FLOW IS FCST TO LIFT
PWAT AS HI AS 1.5-2 INCHES...ABOUT 175 TO 225 PCT OF NORMAL. WHILE
MODEL QPF VARIES GREATLY...LOOKS LIKE THE SE HALF OF THE CWA HAS THE
BEST CHC FOR THE HIER POPS/HEAVIER RA. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE PATTERN
BTWN UPR TROF TO THE W AND RDG TO THE E THAT WOULD FAVOR A MORE SW
VERSUS WSW FLOW ALOFT SHOWN BY THE DRIER 00Z GFS...PREFER THE WETTER
12Z ECMWF/00Z NAM FOR FCST SPECIFICS. HEAVY RA WL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SE HALF OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO THE FCST TRACK OF
THE SFC LO AND WHERE A SFC TROF MAY PERSIST FOR A PERIOD OF TIME AND
ENHANCE LLVL CNVGC AHEAD OF THE APRCHG SFC LO. DESPITE FCST MARGINAL
LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY WITH SSI FCST NO LOWER THAN ABOUT 1 TO -
1C...OPTED TO MAINTAIN FCST SCHC TS OVER MAINLY THE SE HALF OF THE
CWA GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE MOISTENING. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
SHRTWV/SFC LO ON SUN NGT...POPS WL DIMINISH W-E WITH ARRIVAL OF
DRIER AIR. SINCE THE MID LVL DRYING BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHRTWV IS
LIKELY TO BE MORE EMPHATIC THAN IN THE LLVLS IF COLD FROPA
ASSOCIATED WITH APRCHG OUT OF PHASE UPR TROF IS SLOWER...FOG MAY
BECOME A CONCERN ESPECIALLY IF AND WHERE SOME HEAVIER RA FALLS.

MON...PROGRESSIVE UPR TROF AXIS IS FCST TO SWING INTO THE UPR LKS...
WITH ACCOMPANYING COLD FROPA EXPECTED LATE SUN NGT/MON MRNG. WITH
THE MID LVL DNVA/DRYING BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHRTWV AND ARRIVAL OF
THIS FNT IN THE LATE NGT/MRNG WHEN DAYTIME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION
WL NOT BE A FACTOR...EXPECT NO MORE THAN SCHC POPS. THE APRCH OF HI
PRES/ARRIVAL OF DRY AIR WL ALLOW FOR MORE AFTN SUNSHINE.

EXTENDED...DRY HI PRES UNDER THE PROGRESSIVE UPR TROF WL BRING DRY
WX FOR AT LEAST TUE. THE LONGER RANGE GFS/ECMWF MODELS THEN HINT
SOME DISTURBANCES IN A MORE ZONAL FLOW MAY IMPACT THE UPR LKS ON
WED/THU. GIVEN THE RATHER UNPREDICTABLE NATURE OF THE UPR FLOW
IN THE LONG TERM THIS TIME OF YEAR...WL RELY ON MODEL CONSENSUS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

FOG CHANCES APPEAR TO HAVE DWINDLED GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS OVERHEAD
AND LACK OF RAIN ANYWHERE NEAR THE TAF SITES...SO REMOVED FOG FROM
THE FORECASTS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND HI OVERWATER STABILITY
TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF FOG AS
RELATIVELY HUMID AIR FLOWS OVER THE CHILLY LAKE WATERS. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THICKER/MORE WIDESPREAD FOG WILL BE ON SUN AND SUN
NIGHT...WHEN THE MOST HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED OVER THE UPPER LAKES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...KC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

330 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

AN ACTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION TO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL WAVER SOUTH AND NORTH OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK ALONG IT. THIS FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SO WE WILL HAVE NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR RAIN
OVER THE COMING DAYS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY. THERE
IS ALSO CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. THE
THREAT FOR TODAY IS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KALAMAZOO TO LANSING.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

DESPITE AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS FOR ORGANIZED STORMS..
LACK OF INSTABILITY HAS BEEN A BIG LIMITING FACTOR AND CURRENT MU
CAPES ARE ONLY 100-300 J/KG. UPSTREAM CLOUD TOPS ON IR SATELLITE
HAVE BEEN ACCORDINGLY WARMING OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AND OVERALL
LIGHTNING TREND HAS BEEN DOWN. THUS THE RISK FOR ANY STRONG/SEVERE
TSTMS IS VERY LOW THROUGH MID MORNING.

HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN IS VERY MUCH ALIVE WITH 40-50 KT
SWLY LOW LEVEL JET POINTED AT THE AREA THROUGH 15Z COINCIDENT WITH
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE RELATED TO RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION UPPER LEVEL
JET DYNAMICS. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RATES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID
MORNING.

THE FOCUS THIS AFTERNOON IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO
RE FIRE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE SE CWFA. THERE IS ONLY A
RELATIVELY NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY AND LOW CHANCE FOR THIS TO
HAPPEN AS LATEST RUC SFC BASED CAPES ARE JUST RECOVERING ABOUT THE
TIME THE FRONT IS SLIPPING THROUGH. THE MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE JUST
SOUTH AND EAST OF JXN. OTHERWISE THE LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS DECREASING
POPS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CURRENT WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

MAIN FCST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE STRATUS AND
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE POTENTIAL WITH MOIST LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW
IMPACTING THE AREA. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE LOW CLOUDS TO
SCATTER OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN HIGH JUNE SUN ANGLE.

RENEWED CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
AS WARM FRONT BUCKLES BACK NORTH. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRONGER STORMS SUNDAY AS AFTERNOON CAPES ARE
PROGGED TO EXCEED 2000 J/KG OVER SRN LWR MI

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI
JUN 12 2015

WE ARE LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST. THE FCST IS
RATHER WET WITH MILD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD.

THE WET WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM
ON SUN NIGHT. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MEANDERING BACK AND FORTH WILL BE
ACROSS THE CWFA SUN NIGHT WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
THE FRONT. IT WILL TAKE UNTIL DURING THE DAY ON MON FOR THE WAVE TO
MOVE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW THE FRONT TO DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA.
IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE SEVERE WX THREAT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE CWFA
WITH THE FRONT MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA BY THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING.

WE DO SEE A LIKELY DRY PERIOD FOR THE DAY ON TUE. WE WILL SEE SHORT
WAVE RIDGING BUILD IN BY TUE MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE MON WAVE AND
AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN.

THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR MORE RAIN ON WED AND THU ACROSS THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS OF THE TIMING AND LOCATION ARE STILL A
BIT UNCERTAIN. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL FLATTEN OUT A BIT ACROSS
THE CONUS...VERSUS THE SW FLOW ALOFT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING THE PAST
FEW DAYS. THAT SAID...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MORE WAVES RIDE IN
ALONG THIS FLOW ALONG THE NEARLY STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP PCPN CHCS POSSIBLE FOR THE AREA
AND KEEP TEMPS FROM BECOMING TOO WARM.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 152 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

OUR MAIN FOCUS IN THE 06Z FCSTS IS THE RAIN/CONVECTION THAT IS
STARTING TO MOVE IN ACROSS SOME OF THE TERMINALS. WE EXPECT THAT
THIS RAINFALL WILL SPREAD IN OVER THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS. THUNDER IS
NOT WIDESPREAD...SO WE HAVE OPTED FOR A VCTS/TEMPO GROUP TO COVER
THE THUNDER THREAT. THE NRN TERMINALS WILL TEND TO SEE IFR CIGS
MOVE IN DURING THIS TIME...WHILE SRN TERMINALS WILL LIKELY ONLY
SEE POCKETS OF IFR WITH HEAVIER BURSTS OF PCPN.

THE MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN WILL TEND TO DIMINISH TOWARD 16-18Z FRI
AFTERNOON. AN ADDITIONAL LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL
DEVELOP AFTER 18Z TOWARD THE KJXN AREA BEFORE MOVING OUT BY 19-20Z
FRI. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE AND SPOTTY IN NATURE.
LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HOLD IN ACROSS MOST AREAS...WITH THE SRN
SITES SEEING THE IFR CIGS MOVING IN THERE.

A SHOWER WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE THE
MAIN WAVE/FRONT COMES THROUGH. CIGS MAY TRY TO LIFT INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY AT THAT TIME...HOWEVER THIS IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN.

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE SHORT TERM WILL KEEP WAVES ON THE LOW SIDE AND
ALSO LIMIT THE FOG POTENTIAL IN THE NEARSHORE AREA.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 606 PM EDT TUE JUN 11 2015

A SOAKING RAINFALL TOTALING AN INCH OR GREATER IS EXPECTED ACROSS
MOST OF LOWER MI... WITH 2 INCHES OR GREATER MOST LIKELY ACROSS
CENTRAL MI NORTHWARD. THUNDERSTORMS... PARTICULARLY IN CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN... WILL TEND TO INCREASE THE VARIABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION TOTALS... SO LOCATIONS THERE DO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
OVER 2 INCHES WHERE STORMS PERSIST. RAINFALL WILL BE SPREAD OUT
ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY... BUT THE GREATEST TIME FRAME
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN OUR CWA APPEARS TO BE FROM LATE EVENING
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

EXPECTED FLOOD IMPACTS WILL BE MAINLY FOCUSED ON SMALL STREAMS AND
PONDING OF WATER IN LOW SPOTS OF ROADWAYS. SIGNIFICANT FLASH
FLOODING DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY AT THIS TIME. ENSEMBLE QPF GUIDANCE
FOR OUR LARGER RIVER SYSTEMS SUGGESTS OUR GOING BASIN-AVERAGE
RAINFALL FORECAST WOULD KEEP MOST RIVERS WITHIN THEIR BANKS.
HOWEVER... WITH DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IN PLACE PARTIALLY FROM
THE REMNANTS OF BLANCA... EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION MAY LEAD TO THIS
SYSTEM OVER PERFORMING AGAINST OUR FORECAST. WE WOULD NEED BASIN-
AVERAGE RAINFALL OF GREATER THAN 2.5 INCHES IN CENTRAL MICHIGAN AND
2 INCHES IN MID-SOUTH MICHIGAN TO PUSH MORE THAN JUST A COUPLE GAUGE
SITES ABOVE BANKFULL. RIVERS WILL RUN HIGHER THAN NORMAL HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEK... WHEN ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION ARE
EXPECTED.

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...MEADE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON MS

341 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING
CONTINUING TO SHOW WIDESPREAD PLUME OF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AS
WELL AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE
PERSISTENT COLD CORE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF. IMAGERY IS NOT SHOWING
MUCH TO INDICATE THE WAVE OTHER THAN AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION ALONG
THE MS COAST...BUT THE RAP DATA IS SHOWING AN AXIS OF 2-2.5 PV UNITS
IN THAT AREA.

EXPECTING ANOTHER DAY OF CONVECTION...SOMEWHAT MORE PREVALENT TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT SLUG OF HIGH PW AIR WILL
ROTATE NW AROUND THE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING MAX HEATING. WHEN LOOKING AT THE LATEST
SATELLITE BLENDED TOTAL PW PRODUCT THIS SEEMS LOGICAL AS IT IS
SHOWING 2+ INCH PW AIR JUST OFFSHORE OF LA/MS/AL/FL...INLINE TO MOVE
ASHORE THIS MORNING.

WHILE THIS TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFAL...IT WILL NOT PORTEND MUCH
MICROBURST POTENTIAL. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS...WEAK
FLOW ALOFT HAS LED TO SLOW STORM MOVEMENTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL/FLOODING. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ALONG WITH INCREASED EFFICIENCY OF RAINFALL PRODUCTION.

BY SATURDAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF THE COUNTRY WILL BEGIN TO BE FELT OVER OUR EASTERN SECTIONS. THIS
WILL SERVE TO LESSEN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE A BIT IN THESE AREAS AND
ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER AFTERNOON TEMPS./26/

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AS WE GO INTO THE LATER PART
OF THE WEEKEND THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA.
THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK INFLOW OF GULF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION...WHERE
PWATS WILL MAX OUT TO AROUND 2.30 INCHES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER MODELS TRY TO SHOW THAT WE MAY GET CUT OFF HEAVY RAINFALL
WISE FROM THE COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER STILL WILL BE LOOKING AT SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY EFFICIENT RAIN POTENTIAL FROM SLOW MOVING STORMS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT UPPER RIDGING FROM THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL
BRING IN DRYER AIR FROM THE EAST...WHICH WILL PUSH THE HIGHER PWATS
WEST OF THE REGION UNTIL THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE WHEN A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. MODELS HAVE SOME TIMING
AND DEPTH ISSUES WITH THE SHORT WAVE COMING FROM THE WEST. THE
MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE SOME CHANCES OF MOSTLY DIURNAL CONVECTION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL SHOWS SOME UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY
COMING FROM THE PLAINS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WHICH MAY BRING
A FEW STRONG STORMS...BUT THATS TOO FAR OUT FOR ANY HWO POTENTIAL AT
THIS TIME. OTHERWISE EXPECT WARM DAYS AND MUGGY NIGHTS WITH SEASONAL
HIGHS AND LOWS. ALSO UPPED HIGHS IN THE EAST AROUND 1 DEGREE FOR
NEXT WEEK TO COMPENSATE FOR THE BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST
US./17/

.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS BY 15Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL...HOWEVER...BE ON
THE INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND WILL BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS
TO MVFR/IFR WHEN THEY PASS THROUGH ANY TAF SITES. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...MVFR TO IFR
CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE DEVELOP AT MOST TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT
RECEIVE RAINFALL TODAY./26/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 86 71 88 72 / 63 30 52 23
MERIDIAN 85 71 88 71 / 63 20 48 18
VICKSBURG 88 72 89 73 / 61 28 50 25
HATTIESBURG 85 73 87 72 / 63 21 57 25
NATCHEZ 85 72 87 72 / 63 31 55 27
GREENVILLE 91 73 90 73 / 51 26 50 36
GREENWOOD 88 72 89 73 / 53 26 47 23

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

26/17/

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

1257 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

FORECAST ELEMENTS WERE MOSTLY ON TRACK. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
SKY COVER OVERNIGHT BASED ON ASOS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY.
POPULATED SKY GRIDS WITH CONSSHORT GUIDANCE WHICH INITIALIZED WELL
AND SHOWED OVERALL DECREASING TREND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
ND WHERE CLOUDS WERE MOST PREVALENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 926 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

UPDATE ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LOW CLOUDS NEAR KDIK SHOW DIMINISHING TREND THE LAST
COUPLE HOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS FRIDAY
MORNING AT ALL LOCATIONS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST AND
NORTH AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHWEST ND AROUND 00Z SAT.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JNS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JNS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SIOUX FALLS SD

354 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE HOW FAST THE STRATUS MOVES OUT OF NORTHWEST IOWA AND
ADJACENT AREAS OF SD AND MN TODAY AND HOW QUICKLY THE STRATUS
RETURNS TONIGHT.

CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWS THAT THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS EXTENDS
FROM NEAR MARSHALL MN TO SIOUX FALLS AND THEN TO WEST OF YANKTON. IN
SW MN...THE STRATUS IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH BUT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
SD...THE STRATUS HAS NOT MOVED AT ALL AND IN FACT IS MOVING WESTWARD
A BIT IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY. THE RAP WINDS SHOW THAT THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW IS PARALLEL TO THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS WHICH MEANS VERY LITTLE
MOVEMENT IN SD IN THE NEAR TERM. THIS TREND ACTUALLY CONTINUES
THROUGH THE MORNING AND THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THE EDGE OF THE
STRATUS WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE IN SOUTHEAST SD THROUGH THE MORNING.
ACROSS SW MN...THERE IS ENOUGH OF WIND COMPONENT NORMAL TO THE BACK
EDGE OF THE STRATUS TO ADVECT IT SOUTH TOWARD I90 BY LATE THIS
MORNING. AS A RESULT EXPECT ALL OF NW IA AND NE NEBRASKA AS WELL AS
FAR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA TO REMAIN CLOUDY MUCH OF THE MORNING.
WHAT IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY ERODE THE STRATUS IS THE STRONG JUNE SUN
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR HEATING FROM BELOW AND ENHANCE MIXXING LATE
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRATUS SHOULD BREAK UP MOST
QUICKLY ALONG THE EDGES. SKIES ARE LIKELY TO BECOME ONLY PARTLY
CLOUDY AT BEST IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY AND SOUTH OF HWY 18 IN NW
IOWA. HIGHS TODAY WILL REFLECT THE DIFFERENCE IN CLOUD
COVER...RANGING FROM AROUND 70 IN STORM LAKE TO THE UPPER 70S WEST
OF THE JAMES RIVER.

ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL SWITCH WINDS TO
SOUTHEAST AND BRING THE STRATUS BACK NORTHWARD. BY SUNRISE ON
SATURDAY MUCH OF NW IA WILL BE OVERCAST WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ELSEWHERE. WHILE MUCH OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT LATE TONIGHT
FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO DEVELOP AROUND SIOUX CITY OR YANKTON. LOWS
OVER NIGH WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S ALONG HIGHWAY 14 IN SD AND
MN...TO LOWER 60S IN PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RESUMES FOR MUCH OF THE MID AND LONG TERM
FORECAST AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TREK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AS IS TYPICAL WITH THESE PROGRESSIVE SUMMER
PATTERNS...MODELS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND TRACK.

FOR SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE EMERGING IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LIFTS
NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS WAVE WILL CLIP NORTHWEST
IOWA AND ADJACENT COUNTIES WITH SHOWERS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN HALF...HOWEVER THE GEM REGIONAL SEEMS TO BE
AN OUTLIER BY BRINGING THIS WAVE MUCH FURTHER EAST. ACTIVITY SLOWLY
DRIFTS TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY IS PRETTY
MEAGER...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS POINT. HIGHS
WILL BE SEASONALLY COOL BUT PLEASANT IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY...WITH A BIT MORE
SURFACE HEATING AND MOISTURE INFLUX TO ALLOW MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...MAINLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE BEST SHOT FOR DRY WEATHER AREAWIDE ARRIVES MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS FROM THE NORTH...WHILE
QUASIZONAL UPPER FLOW SPLITS THE ENERGY NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
REGION. WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED POPS FROM ALL BUT SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA WHERE SOME CONVECTION FORMING IN THE HIGH PLAINS TO OUR WEST
MAY CREEP ACROSS OUR BORDER.

MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY ON TUESDAY AS WELL...HOWEVER WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY THROUGH
THE DAY. ALL MODELS PUSH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CARRY IT
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH THE GFS
AND ECMWF...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR STORMS WILL BE IN ACROSS OUR
NORTHWESTERN HALF TUESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THE GEM
CONTINUES TO BE THE OUTLIER...THIS TIME WITH A SOUTHERN ROUTE CLOSER
TO THE SD/NE BORDER.

BEYOND TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS DIFFERENCES BECOME MUCH
GREATER...LEADING TO MUCH HIGHER UNCERTAINTY. WILL LEAVE ALLBLEND
POPS AND TEMPERATURES IN PLACE FOR NOW.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LUBBOCK TX

438 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.SHORT TERM...
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL FALL IN THE
CROSSHAIRS FOR SEVERE STORMS LATER TODAY GIVEN MULTIPLE SURFACE
BOUNDARIES...STRONG INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
09Z SURFACE PATTERN FEATURED A COLD FRONT AIDED BY OUTFLOWS EDGING
SOUTH FROM FRIONA- TULIA-VIGO PARK WITH A DRYLINE ACROSS EASTERN
NM. FORTY KNOT LLJ ORIENTED FROM MAF-LBB-AMA HAS BEEN AIDING STORM
REGENERATION ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT...SOME OF WHICH
WILL IMPACT OUR NERN COUNTIES IN THE HOURS AHEAD. IN THE WAKE OF
THESE STORMS...PRESSURE RISES SHOULD RELAX FROM W-E GIVEN A LACK
OF FURTHER REINFORCING OUTFLOWS/MESOHIGHS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE
FRONT TO STALL ALBEIT A FAIR AMOUNT FARTHER SOUTH THAN MOST MODELS
INDICATE AS THEY ARE NOT PROPERLY RESOLVING THE CURRENT PACE OF
THE OUTFLOW /E.G. 35 KNOT NORTHEAST WIND AT CVS AT 850MB AT THE
TIME OF THIS WRITING/.

AS A WEAK UPPER LOW INITIALLY OVER SOUTHERN CO LIFTS NORTHEAST LATER
TODAY...THE BASE OF OF THE TROUGH WILL GRAZE THE SOUTH PLAINS AND
SERVE TO ENHANCE SWLY FLOW ALOFT. 00Z RAOB DATA SHOWED A PRONOUNCED
UPPER JET CORE ACCOMPANYING THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH...SO FORCING FOR
ASCENT TODAY IS IN NO SHORT SUPPLY. DRYLINE SHOULD MIX TO THE TX-NM
STATE LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND GIVE RISE TO A TRIPLE POINT ACROSS OUR
NW COUNTIES. INITIALLY FORMIDABLE EML IS PROGGED TO COOL FROM LOWER
700MB TEMPS EVIDENT UPSTREAM AND IT APPEARS CONVECTIVE INITIATION
SHOULD BE WELL IN HAND BY 20Z-21Z. ERRONEOUSLY HIGH DEWPOINTS OF 70
DEG ON THE CAPROCK PER NAM AND RUC ARE BEING DISMISSED ALONG WITH
THEIR SUBSEQUENT EXTREME CAPE VALUES...HOWEVER MLCAPE APPROACHING
3000 J/KG WILL STILL PROVE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SEVERE EVENTS WITH
SOME SUPERCELL MODES GIVEN 30-40 KNOT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. AMPLE CAPE
IN THE -10C TO -30C LAYER POINTS TO EFFICIENT HAILERS TODAY...BUT
ALL SEVERE MODES INCLUDING THE OFT OVERLOOKED FLOODING THREAT WILL
BE FAIR GAME TODAY. MODEL THEME IS FOR STORMS TO CONGEAL INTO A
LINEAR MCS BEFORE SUNSET WITH A SECOND ROUND OF LARGELY NON-SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT AIDED BY A LLJ ATOP ANY RESIDUAL
OUTFLOWS.

.LONG TERM...
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY HINGES QUITE A BIT ON HOW THINGS UNFOLD
TODAY. IF CONVECTION IS ONGOING THROUGH SUNRISE SATURDAY ACROSS
ANY PART OF THE AREA...THAT MAY BE ENOUGH TO STABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON RESULTING IN FEW TO NO STORMS
THROUGH THE DAY. THE MAIN WAVE THAT WILL HAVE HELPED STORMS ON
FRIDAY WILL BE PRETTY FAR NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH ANOTHER WAVE
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS...COMBINED WITH ANOTHER
STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...COULD RESULT IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
LOW-LEVEL JET WOULD ALSO HELP BOOST BULK SHEAR ENOUGH THAT
ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL. ALL THIS
PULLED TOGETHER FAVORS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THE OTHER IMPACT FROM THE INCREASED MOISTURE...CLOUD
COVER...AND PRECIPITATION IS THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN
THE LOW 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION FOR SATURDAY.

FORECAST FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS
GENERALLY WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THE
GFS KEEPS A WEAK TROF AXIS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A WEAK DEFORMATION AXIS ACROSS THE AREA.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NEVER REALLY LEAVES THE REGION AND THE DRYLINE
REMAINS SOMEWHAT A NON-PLAYER AS DAYTIME MIXING WILL BE THE
PRIMARY DRIVER FOR DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS NEXT WEEK. WITH A LACK OF ANY SURFACE BOUNDARIES...OUTSIDE
OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS DAYS CONVECTION...WE MAY
TREND MORE TOWARDS LATE EVENING THROUGH OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IF
WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AS THE GFS SHOWS. ECMWF EVEN
TRANSITIONS TOWARDS THIS FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK SO PRECIPITATION
CHANCES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. BULK SHEAR VALUES SLOWLY DECREASE AS
THE DEFORMATION AXIS KEEPS WEAK WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION BUT
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SHEAR THAT SOME PULSE SEVERE EVENTS MAY BE
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE FAIRLY MILD THANKS TO THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS.

JORDAN

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 80 62 80 63 / 40 40 50 50
TULIA 84 64 79 64 / 70 50 60 60
PLAINVIEW 86 64 80 64 / 70 60 50 50
LEVELLAND 89 65 83 65 / 70 50 50 50
LUBBOCK 89 67 82 66 / 70 60 50 50
DENVER CITY 93 64 89 66 / 30 30 50 50
BROWNFIELD 92 66 87 67 / 60 40 50 50
CHILDRESS 88 70 83 69 / 70 100 60 50
SPUR 91 66 85 69 / 60 100 50 50
ASPERMONT 93 67 89 71 / 40 90 50 40

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

93/14

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX

1248 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

.AVIATION...EXPECT DEVELOPING MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY FRIDAY AFTN...FOLLOWED BY PREDOMINATE
VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED
FOR THE COASTAL BEND/VICTORIA CROSSROADS TODAY. LGT ONSHORE FLOW
OVERNIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW DRG THE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 900 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015/

DISCUSSION...EVENING SOUNDING SHOWS NOT MUCH IN CIN THIS EVENING
NEAR THE COAST ALTHOUGH CAP IS DEVELOPING OVER INLAND AREAS
FARTHER WEST. VERY WEAK SHOWERS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ARE
DISSIPATING AS THEY APPROACH THE COAST...AND LITTLE TO NO CAP IS
FORECAST OVER THE GULF OVERNIGHT. WITH COASTAL CONVERGENCE...WILL
MAINTAIN THE 20 POPS FOR THE GULF AND IMMEDIATE COAST OVERNIGHT.
CONSIDERING THAT THE SHOWERS (VERY WEAK) ARE DISSIPATING AS THEY
NEAR THE COAST THIS EVENING...WILL NOT MENTION RAIN FOR THE INLAND
AREAS THIS EVENING...AS HRRR MODEL SHOWS NO ACTIVITY MOVING INLAND
(THOUGH COULD NOT RULE OUT A ROGUE SHOWER BEFORE MIDNIGHT).
OVERALL...WITH A PERSISTENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE MOST
PART...HOWEVER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A TAD WARMER
TONIGHT WITH A BIT MORE WIND. THIS OVERALL IS THE CASE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR INLAND AREAS BUT NEED SOME ADJUSTMENTS HERE
AND THERE. THUS...WILL ISSUE A QUICK UPDATE FOR THIS. OTHER MINOR
CHANGES. OVERALL WIND FORECAST LOOKS FINE. NO CHANGES TO LATER
PERIODS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 91 78 90 78 90 / 20 20 30 20 50
VICTORIA 92 75 89 75 89 / 20 20 40 30 70
LAREDO 97 77 97 78 96 / 10 10 10 10 20
ALICE 94 76 94 77 93 / 10 10 20 20 40
ROCKPORT 91 80 89 80 89 / 20 20 40 30 60
COTULLA 96 76 95 76 95 / 10 10 10 10 20
KINGSVILLE 92 78 92 78 92 / 20 20 20 20 40
NAVY CORPUS 89 80 88 80 89 / 20 20 30 30 50

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

WC/87...AVIATION

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREEN BAY WI

1249 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 805 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL MOST OF THE TIME...WITH THE
WARMEST DAYS BEING SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND THE COOLEST DAYS
THURSDAY AND PERHAPS FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MFI-MNM...THEN TAPER OFF FRIDAY MORNING.
EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL IN THE STEADIER RAIN...WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FARTHER NORTHWEST. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ON FRI AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS AND WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WI.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE.........KURIMSKI
SHORT TERM.....AK
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......PK/TSK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

1153 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

SOME BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY DUE TO 3
REASONS...

1. WARM FRONT REMAINING STUCK NEAR I-80 HOLDING INSTABILITY FROM
MOVING NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

2. TROUGH FROM SOUTHERN MN INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA MOVING EAST
QUICKER.

3. A LINEAR MCS EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTH OF OMAHA SHORTLY...WHICH THEN
TRACKS EAST AND INTERCEPTS MUCH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE STARTS
TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION. IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND BR WILL LINGER
TONIGHT THEN SHOULD IMPROVE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. LOOK FOR MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY
IMPROVING TO VFR BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
THEN PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...WETENKAMP
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
HYDROLOGY...AJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

1048 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE
EAST. THUS BELIEVE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BE RATHER LIMITED
AGAIN TODAY...AND WITH EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING
FLOW...CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST.
THIS IS DEPICTED BY THE HRRR AND ILLUSTRATED WELL IN THE ONGOING
FORECAST. NO FURTHER UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 731 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015/

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL KEEP A GENERALLY EAST
FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST
OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO WARDS THE INTERIOR AND
GULF COAST EACH DAY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS, WITH BRIEF IFR
UNDER ANY CONVECTIVE CELLS THAT MOVE OVER THE TAF SITE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL BE SETTING UP ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WHICH TRANSLATES TO DEEP EASTERLY FLOW FOR
SOUTH FLORIDA. THE EASTERLY WIND WILL ALSO MEAN AN INCREASED
THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES. THIS WILL ALSO SET
THE PATTERN FOR MOSTLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONCENTRATED OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST. THE SAHARAN AIR
LAYER (SAL) IS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA GIVING THE SKY THE
HAZY APPEARANCE AND THIS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY.
THIS COULD HAVE AIDED IN THE SEVERE WIND GUSTS IN THE NAPLES AREA
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG STORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT SHOW TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE PWAT
FOR MID JUNE EITHER AT AROUND 1.75". IN FACT, BY LATE NEXT WEEK THE
GFS SHOWS STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND HENCE DRYING OF THE AIRMASS AS A
TUTT LIKE FEATURE APPROACHES THE BAHAMAS FROM THE EAST. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING LESS THAN .5" ACCUMULATION OF RAINFALL
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ALONG THE EAST COAST. SO MUCH FOR JUNE
BEING THE WETTEST MONTH OF THE CALENDAR YEAR!

MARINE...
AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND OF GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KNOTS WILL
DOMINATE THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS ACROSS BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 88 80 87 78 / 20 10 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 87 79 87 79 / 20 10 20 20
MIAMI 89 79 88 78 / 20 20 20 20
NAPLES 91 76 89 75 / 50 20 40 30

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...10/CD
AVIATION...13/SI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

1129 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1117 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WAS MOVG ACROSS OUR CWA LATE THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF SFC CDFNT WHICH EXTENDED FROM SW MI-SE IA. THIS
PRECIP SHOULD LIMIT DESTABILIZATION ACROSS NWRN PORTION OF CWA
AHEAD OF THE CDFNT. MAIN THREAT FOR SVR STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS
TO BE ACROSS THE SE 1/2 THIS AFTN. MINOR CHANGES MADE TO WX GRIDS
AND TEMPS TO REFLECT THESE ONGOING TRENDS.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 555 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JT
SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...AGD

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

1024 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 952 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.UPDATE...A LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AND WAS SPREADING INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA. IT APPEARS
THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT NORTHWEST SECTIONS A LITTLE EARLIER.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT MOST OTHER AREAS MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. OVERALL CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK.
TWEAKED TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF. BUT OVERALL
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PORTION OF PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

COMBINATION OF STRONG DIURNAL HEATING AND EXPANSION OF 40KT LOW
LEVEL JET INTO THE REGION WILL PROMOTE AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING BY MIDDAY
AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HRRR CONTINUES TO
BE RATHER AGGRESSIVE IN MORE EXPANSIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE FORECAST
AREA BY 16Z WHICH LOOKS OVERDONE CONSIDERING LIMITED UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. WILL KEEP POPS PRIMARILY IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
EXPECTED SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE ON CONVECTIVE CHANCES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

SHOULD SEE TEMPS NEAR TO JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 121200Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1019 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

1415Z UPDATE...UPDATED TAFS TO INCLUDE EARLIER TIMING FOR SHOWERS
AT KIND AS SOME WEAK ECHOES JUST RECENTLY DEVELOPED TO THE SOUTH
OF THE RADAR...AND MORE WIDESPREAD SCATTERED SHOWERS/-TSRA MOVE
INTO THE KLAF AREA A LITTLE EARLIER THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED.
TIMING FOR KBMG AND KHUF MAY BE HELD BACK BASED ON LATEST TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

RAPID REFRESH MODEL IS BECOMING MORE SUGGESTIVE THAT BOUNDARIES FROM
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION TO THE WEST MAY BE ABLE TO FIRE UP SOME WIDELY
SCATTERED STORMS MID TO LATE MORNING...THUS HAVE MOVED UP VCTS
MENTION TO THIS TIME FRAME AND MAINTAINED IT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. UNFORTUNATELY MORE EXPLICIT TIMING IS EXTREMELY
DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH GUSTS TODAY
INTO THE MID 20KT RANGE POSSIBLE.

VISIBILITY ISSUES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED OUTSIDE OF STORMS.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/JH
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...SMF/NIELD

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

952 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.UPDATE...
NEAR TERM FOR THE REST OF TODAY HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 952 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

PORTION OF PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE ON CONVECTIVE CHANCES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

SHOULD SEE TEMPS NEAR TO JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 12/12Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 615 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH GUSTS TODAY
INTO THE MID 20KT RANGE POSSIBLE.

VISIBILITY ISSUES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED OUTSIDE OF STORMS.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/JH
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...NIELD

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

615 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE ON CONVECTIVE CHANCES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

SHOULD SEE TEMPS NEAR TO JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 12/12Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 615 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH GUSTS TODAY
INTO THE MID 20KT RANGE POSSIBLE.

VISIBILITY ISSUES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED OUTSIDE OF STORMS.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...NIELD

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TOPEKA KS

557 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2015

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

Any storms that develop during the late afternoons may be
marginally severe. While little to no inhibition maximizes sfc CAPE
between 1500 and 2000 J/KG, effective shear stays on the low side
near 20 KTS, mitigating stronger, rotating updrafts from forming.

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 557 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

Confidence in timing precip chances is low. SHRA associated with
an MCV in south central KS seems to be having a hard time moving
northeast as if there is some dry air to overcome. Since models
are not in good agreement with morning activity, have gone with a
VCSH through the morning. Think there should be a break by the
afternoon with subsidence on the back side of the MCV bringing an
end to precip. However have kept conditions MVFR anticipating
little or no improvement to CIGS with surface ridging nosing into
the area and a northeast surface wind prevailing. CIGS could
improve this afternoon, but given the pattern do not have
confidence in raising CIGS. With potential for renewed nocturnal
convection tonight, have brought back a VCTS late in the evening.

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Wolters

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS MARQUETTE MI

846 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

HIGH CLOUDS THINNED ENOUGH OVERNIGHT TO PROMOTE FOG AT KSAW...WITH
VSBY DOWN TO 1/4SM. BASED ON AREA WEBCAMS...APPEARS FOG IS NOT JUST
CONFINED TO AIRPORT...SO LINGERED FOG WITH VSBY IMPROVING TO MVFR
IN THE NEXT HOUR AND CIGS FOLLOWING THEREAFTER. COULD SEE MVFR
STRATUS STICK AROUND MUCH OF THE MORNING THOUGH DUE TO NE UPSLOPE
FLOW. EVEN THAT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY EARLY AFTN WITH DAYTIME MIXING.
AT KCMX AND KIWD...ANY FOG EARLY ON WILL BE SHALLOW AND PATCHY AND
HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE 12Z TAFS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT...THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE SOME PATCHY
GROUND FOG COULD FORM AGAIN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 845 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

UPDATE FOR FRIDAY AT 845AM. BASED OFF VISIBLE SATELLITE AND WEBCAMS
THIS MORNING...DECIDED TO ISSUE A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HAVE SET A 4PM END TIME FOR
NOW...BUT THERE WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE TWEAKS TO THE END TIME LATER
TODAY. WITH WEAK WINDS OVER THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS...THERE MAY BE
LITTLE MOVEMENT OR DISSIPATION OF THE FOG FOR SOME AREAS OF EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND HI
OVERWATER STABILITY TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...EXPECT WINDS
UNDER 20 KTS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THERE WILL BE
PERIODS OF FOG AS FAIRLY HUMID AIR FLOWS OVER THE CHILLY LAKE WATERS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THICKER/MORE WIDESPREAD FOG WILL BE ON SUN AND
SUN NIGHT...WHEN THE MOST HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED OVER THE UPPER LAKES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ246>251-
265>267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...KC/SRF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

753 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

AN ACTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION TO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL WAVER SOUTH AND NORTH OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK ALONG IT. THIS FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SO WE WILL HAVE NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR RAIN
OVER THE COMING DAYS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY. THERE
IS ALSO A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. THE
THREAT FOR TODAY IS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KALAMAZOO TO LANSING.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

WE DO SEE A LIKELY DRY PERIOD FOR THE DAY ON TUE. WE WILL SEE SHORT
WAVE RIDGING BUILD IN BY TUE MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE MON WAVE AND
AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 753 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING RANGE FROM IFR AT MKG AND GRR TO VFR
AT JXN. LOWER CIGS IN THE MVFR TO IFR CATEGORY WILL SPREAD
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH TIME TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH WILL OCCASIONALLY/BRIEFLY REDUCE THE VSBYS. THE THUNDER
THREAT IS VERY LOW NOW... ALTHOUGH A FEW MAY FLARE UP AGAIN
AROUND JXN 15Z-19Z. WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AS STRATUS/FOG IMPACT THE AREA.

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE SHORT TERM WILL KEEP WAVES ON THE LOW SIDE AND
ALSO LIMIT THE FOG POTENTIAL IN THE NEARSHORE AREA.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 606 PM EDT TUE JUN 11 2015

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...CAS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

746 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...KC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON MS

1059 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.UPDATE...

THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
NECESSARY TO POPS/TEMPS. CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING EARLY OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL MS AS THE PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED COLD CORE LOW INTERACTS WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS (PRECIPITABLE WATER
APPROACHING TWO INCHES). LAPSE RATES ARE ON THE POOR SIDE (VERTICAL
TOTALS ~24) BUT DECENT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AROUND 20KTS IS
SUPPORTING SOME STORM ORGANIZATION ALONG BOUNDARIES. A FEW STRONG
WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WHERE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
ORIENT IN MORE WEST TO EAST FASHION. HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR ANY
SEVERE ACTIVITY LOOKS TOO LOW TO HIGHLIGHT IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER
PRODUCTS WITH MICROBURST COMPOSITE PARAMETERS NOT EXPECTED TO GET
GREATER THAN 2 OR 3. /EC/

.AVIATION...A MIX OF VFR TO IFR FLIGHT STATUSES ARE BEING OBSERVED
THIS MORNING AS A RESULT OF LOW STRATUS THAT`S ENCOMPASSING PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND EAST MISSISSIPPI. THIS LOW STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY
BREAK UP THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH MAINLY VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS
EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOUTH TO NORTH MOVING
CONVECTION WILL AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. CONDITIONS AT SITES`S WHERE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
WILL SEE FLIGHT CATEGORIES DEGRADED TO MVFR/IFR STATUS FOR A
PERIOD...DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND HEAVY RAIN REDUCING VISIBILITIES.
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL LESSEN AS WE MOVE INTO THE EVENING HOURS
AND DAYTIME HEATING WANES. WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 10
KNOTS...AND WILL ALSO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO AROUND 5 KNOTS FROM THE
SOUTH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. /19/

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING
CONTINUING TO SHOW WIDESPREAD PLUME OF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AS
WELL AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE
PERSISTENT COLD CORE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF. IMAGERY IS NOT SHOWING
MUCH TO INDICATE THE WAVE OTHER THAN AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION ALONG
THE MS COAST...BUT THE RAP DATA IS SHOWING AN AXIS OF 2-2.5 PV UNITS
IN THAT AREA.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AS WE GO INTO THE LATER PART
OF THE WEEKEND THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA.
THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK INFLOW OF GULF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION...WHERE
PWATS WILL MAX OUT TO AROUND 2.30 INCHES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER MODELS TRY TO SHOW THAT WE MAY GET CUT OFF HEAVY RAINFALL
WISE FROM THE COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER STILL WILL BE LOOKING AT SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY EFFICIENT RAIN POTENTIAL FROM SLOW MOVING STORMS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT UPPER RIDGING FROM THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL
BRING IN DRYER AIR FROM THE EAST...WHICH WILL PUSH THE HIGHER PWATS
WEST OF THE REGION UNTIL THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE WHEN A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. MODELS HAVE SOME TIMING
AND DEPTH ISSUES WITH THE SHORT WAVE COMING FROM THE WEST. THE
MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE SOME CHANCES OF MOSTLY DIURNAL CONVECTION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL SHOWS SOME UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY
COMING FROM THE PLAINS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WHICH MAY BRING
A FEW STRONG STORMS...BUT THATS TOO FAR OUT FOR ANY HWO POTENTIAL AT
THIS TIME. OTHERWISE EXPECT WARM DAYS AND MUGGY NIGHTS WITH SEASONAL
HIGHS AND LOWS. ALSO UPPED HIGHS IN THE EAST AROUND 1 DEGREE FOR
NEXT WEEK TO COMPENSATE FOR THE BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST
US./17/

AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS BY 15Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL...HOWEVER...BE ON
THE INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND WILL BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS
TO MVFR/IFR WHEN THEY PASS THROUGH ANY TAF SITES. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...MVFR TO IFR
CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE DEVELOP AT MOST TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT
RECEIVE RAINFALL TODAY./26/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 87 71 88 72 / 63 30 52 23
MERIDIAN 87 71 88 71 / 63 20 48 18
VICKSBURG 89 72 89 73 / 61 28 50 25
HATTIESBURG 86 73 87 72 / 70 21 57 25
NATCHEZ 87 72 87 72 / 61 31 55 27
GREENVILLE 91 73 90 73 / 51 26 50 36
GREENWOOD 90 72 89 73 / 53 26 47 23

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

JAN/JAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS BILLINGS MT

935 AM MDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.UPDATE...
JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS MORNING.
REMOVED THE PATCHY MORNING FOG BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY. AT 15Z...COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE NW PART OF
THE STATE WITH A LEE TROUGH POSITIONED AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER
EASTERN/CENTRAL MT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH GRADUALLY SE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN GENERATING SOME QPF
OVER AND NEAR THE BEARTOOTHS...ABSAROKAS AND NE BIG HORNS THIS
AFTERNOON AS CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG THE FRONT AND TERRAIN
PROVIDES LIFT AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES. RAP SOUNDINGS SHOWED JUST
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD WITH INVERTED-V PROFILE IN THE LOWER LAYERS.
THE SREF SHOWED 35-40 KT BULK SHEAR OVER CENTRAL AND W ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON...SPREADING E THIS EVENING. CAPES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND
500 J/KG ALONG THE FRONT. SO A MUCH DRIER DAY TODAY...UNTIL
PRECIPITABLE WATERS CLIMB TO AROUND 1 INCH ALONG THE FRONT THIS
EVENING. ADJUSTED AFTERNOON POPS TO CONNECT THE FOOTHILL AREAS IN
THE SW PER THE WRF. CHANCES FOR THUNDER WILL LINGER THROUGH 03Z
ALONG THE FRONT...THEN DECREASE THEREAFTER. POPS LOOKED GOOD
TONIGHT.

MIXING WILL BE BETWEEN 700 AND 600 MB THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 80S. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING DUE TO THE MIXING. ADJUSTED SKY
COVER AND WINDS TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS. ARTHUR

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

CLOUD DECKS ARE QUITE LOW OVER EASTERN MONTANA THIS MORNING. WENT
AHEAD AND PUT IN THE CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG FOR THE FOUR EASTERN
COUNTIES AS THE TEMP DEW POINT SPREAD IS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES AT
THIS TIME.

FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST...MONTANA WILL FIND ITSELF ON THE
SOUTHERN END OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA. THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL HELP BRING A FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. PRE FRONTAL DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BE IN THE MID 80S...MOST LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY UNTIL THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

SPC HAS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MT HIGHLIGHTED AS MARGINAL FOR
POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. EXAMINATION OF SOME OF THE SSEO
TOOLS CONFIRM THIS SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN BRINGING
SOME CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF BIG HORN AND POWDER RIVER
COUNTIES WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT IN
TIME THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS MINIMAL...BUT WILL
NOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OFF
OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES ARE JUST NOT
SUPPORTIVE OF ANYTHING MORE THAN THAT AT THIS TIME.

AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH...THE AIR BEHIND IT WILL BE MUCH
DRIER. SATURDAY TEMPS WILL MAX OUT IN THE MID 70S...AND BE A
PLEASANT DAY. SOME ENERGY WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE CWA FROM THE
NW BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY HELP INITIATE SOME
CONVECTION SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS BEEN HAPPENING OVER THE PAST WEEK.
SINGER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY A COUPLE OF STRONG
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL AS DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUNDAY WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA PUSHING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH. SURFACE CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT COMBINED WITH ENERGY
ALOFT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO ALL AREAS.
LOWER CHANCE POPS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING TOWARD THE LOWER 80S BY MID WEEK. THE SECOND
STRONGER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH MORE
ORGANIZED ENERGY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

AS FAR AS STRONG CONVECTION GOES THE CURRENT PATTERN DOESN`T STAND
OUT AS A REAL FAVORABLE ONE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. EARLY
WEEK TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER WILL HINDER HEATING. PW VALUES
DO REBOUND TO AROUND AN INCH OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES
TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY THOUGH AND LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST SUPPORTING STRONGER SHEAR...SO WOULD THINK THIS WOULD
BE THE TIME FRAME TO FOCUS ON. CHAMBERS

.AVIATION...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG
THE WYOMING MONTANA BORDER BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING. THESE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH
EASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND SHERIDAN COUNTY WYOMING DURING
THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE CLEARING THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
EXPECT LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR STORMS...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL. GUSTY WEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN FOOTHILLS
THIS AFTERNOON. MEIER

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

TDY SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 085 054/075 051/068 051/072 054/072 053/082 058/079
0/U 20/U 23/T 23/T 34/T 33/T 33/T
LVM 084 044/076 044/067 045/070 049/076 049/083 051/078
2/T 11/U 23/T 23/T 34/T 33/T 33/T
HDN 087 054/077 051/072 051/075 053/076 052/084 057/081
0/U 30/U 33/T 23/T 44/T 33/T 34/T
MLS 087 056/076 052/072 048/074 053/073 052/079 057/078
0/U 30/U 33/T 23/T 44/T 33/T 34/T
4BQ 086 056/076 050/071 049/073 054/072 051/080 056/079
0/U 21/B 42/T 23/T 45/T 33/T 34/T
BHK 084 055/076 049/072 045/073 050/070 048/076 054/077
0/N 31/B 33/T 23/T 35/T 33/T 34/T
SHR 083 052/073 048/067 046/071 050/072 049/079 053/078
0/U 20/B 33/T 23/T 45/T 33/T 33/T

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

1016 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT AND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL
CREATE WARMING TEMPS AND ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTIVE CHANCES TODAY.
VERY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD EXCEED 100 DEGREES EACH
AFTERNOON. SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP LATE NEXT
WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM FRIDAY...CONVECTION OFF THE MYR COAST THAT FLARED UP
THIS MORNING AND BRUSHED CAPE FEAR IS NOW HEADING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST NC COAST. THIS ACTIVITY MAY END UP DELAYING DEVELOPMENT
OF ISOLATED CONVECTION LATER TODAY. COMBINATION OF SEA BREEZE AND
SHORTWAVE ROTATING NORTH FROM GA IS EXPECTED TO FIRE OFF STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS NC. HOWEVER THIS MORNINGS
CONVECTION MIGHT HAVE A BRIEF NEGATIVE IMPACT ON THE SEA
BREEZE...DELAYING ITS DEVELOPMENT.

DO THINK SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP BUT
DURATION OF ANY PARTICULAR STORM MAY BE QUITE SHORT. MID LEVEL
RIDGE EXPANDING FROM THE SOUTH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...IN FACT THE 12Z CHS SOUNDING IS ALREADY SHOWING
THIS BETWEEN 8K AND 14K FT. THIS WILL HELP SUPRESS MUCH OF THE
UPWARD MOTION GENERATED BY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE AND BY MID LEVEL PVA. SO WHILE THERE WILL BE A LOT OF
INSTABILITY...MOISTURE...AND SUPPORT THE 5H RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY
WIN OUT. STILL SHORT LIVED BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WHERE STORMS
DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE ABOVE
CLIMO WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOW 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND OUTSIDE
OF ANY CONVECTION.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...

DANGEROUS HEAT THIS WEEKEND...

THE WORD FOR THE WEEKEND IS "HOT" - AS UPPER RIDGE BLOSSOMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST AND BERMUDA HIGH SETS UP OFFSHORE. SATURDAY WILL BE
EXTREMELY HOT ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA AS 850MB TEMPS AROUND 20C
COMBINE WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO WARM THE ENTIRE AREA...EVEN TO THE
BEACHES...TO 90 DEGREES OR HIGHER. MANY LOCATIONS WILL TOUCH 95
SATURDAY...WITH THE HOTTEST SPOTS REACHING 98. THESE TEMPS WILL
COMBINE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 60S AND LOW 70S TO CREATE HEAT
INDEX VALUES OF 100-103 DEGREES - BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT
DANGEROUS NONETHELESS. A HEAT-RELATED SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED TO OUTLINE
THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPCOMING HEAT WAVE. EVEN WITH THE
CONSIDERABLE HEAT AND INSTABILITY SATURDAY...EXPECT NO CONVECTION
THANKS TO SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.

SUNDAY IS A BIT OF A TRICKIER FORECAST. AS THE RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST...A SUBTLE WEAKNESS ON THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY WILL
ALLOW A PIECE OF VORT ENERGY TO DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD
INTO THE AREA. HOW FAR THIS FRONT WILL PENETRATE IS THE BIGGEST
QUESTION MARK AS THE RIDGE ALMOST ALWAYS TENDS TO WIN OUT...BUT WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND THE GUIDANCE REMAINING
CERTAIN WITH ITS WIND SHIFT...HAVE TO AGREE WITH INHERITED AND SHOW
A WIND SHIFT INTO THE NC ZONES OF THE ILM CWA. THERE IS LITTLE COOL
ADVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE...SO THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS WILL BE
MORE CAUSED BY ISOLATED CONVECTION AND SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER
SUNDAY. ACROSS SC...DO NOT EXPECT ANY CHANGE IN AIR MASS...AND TEMPS
ONCE AGAIN WILL CLIMB TO 95-98 INLAND...90-93 AT THE COAST. HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB ABOVE 100 DEGREES...SAVE THE FAR
NE COUNTIES OF THE AREA...BUT ARE AGAIN FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST
BELOW HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL DO LITTLE TO EASE THE HEAT...AND REAL MID-
SUMMER HUMID MINS IN THE MID TO UPR 70S ARE FORECAST BOTH NIGHTS.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON SEVERAL
DAYS. LARGE UPPER RIDGE STAYS OVER THE AREA WHILE BERMUDA HIGH
BECOMES ANCHORED OFFSHORE. HIGH THICKNESSES COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT
WARM/MOIST RETURN FLOW IN AN ALREADY HOT ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE
DANGEROUS HEAT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. 500MB HEIGHTS
ACTUALLY CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHEN SOME 593DM BEGIN
TO SHOW UP IN THE VICINITY...CORRELATING WITH 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING
TOWARDS 22C. ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON ITS NEAR-RECORD 850MB TEMPS
(THANKFULLY)...BUT SEVERAL DAYS OF 20-22C 850MB TEMPS COMBINED WITH
VERY WARM MINS AND A CONTINUED STAGNANT AIRMASS WILL DRIVE HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 90S EVERY DAY...AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPR 70S. IN
FACT...THIS SEEMS LIKE AN AIR MASS THAT WILL SUPPORT A FEW 100+
DEGREE AIR-TEMPERATURE READINGS NEXT WEEK INLAND...AS WELL AS
SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE BEACH NOT FALLING BELOW 80 AT NIGHT.

THE COMBINATION OF THE VERY HOT TEMPS AND HIGH DEWPOINT AIR THANKS
TO CONTINUED MOIST ADVECTION AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH...WILL DRIVE
HEAT INDEX VALUES TO WELL OVER 100 DEGREES...AND IT IS LOOKING MORE
LIKELY THAT HEAT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR A LARGE PORTION OF
THE AREA SEVERAL DAYS NEXT WEEK. THE HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
BE INLAND FROM THE COAST...BUT EVEN NEAR THE BEACHES IT WILL FEEL
LIKE 100 DEGREES MOST AFTNS. THIS IS TRUE SUMMER HEAT...AND WE ASK
YOU TO REFER TO THE HEAT SPS FOR MORE INFORMATION.

EVEN THOUGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE HIGH...AFTN CONVECTION WILL BE
VERY TOUGH TO COME BY AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE FORCING ALOFT...AND A
STRONG SUBSIDENT CAP TO SURFACE PARCELS. LATE IN THE PERIOD HEIGHTS
MAY BEGIN TO FALL...BUT THE GUIDANCE TENDS TO BE TOO QUICK TO BREAK
DOWN THESE TYPES OF RIDGES SO WILL TONE DOWN INHERITED POP TO
SCHC/SILENT AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED...WITH ONLY ISOLATED/NONE THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST
FEW HOURS IN BRINGING A BATCH OF CONVECTION INTO THE ILM AREA. STILL
NOTHING ON THE RADAR SO CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS RATHER LOW.
LIKEWISE...NOT MUCH ON SATELLITE EITHER AT THIS POINT. THIS MOISTURE
WILL WAVE NORTH TODAY...WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE RESULTANT WILL MOVE SLOWLY INLAND
TODAY...WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION SPREADING WESTWARD. LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY AND
MAINLY VFR.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM FRIDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS ON
THE HIGH SIDE OF THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE TODAY WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE OVERNIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT MAY OCCASIONALLY TOUCH 4 FT
WELL AWAY FROM SHORE.

SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES
WITH S-SW WINDS AND A WEAK BERMUDA ESE SWELL...ACCOMPANIED BY
GUSTS NEAR 20 KT INSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. A FEW
TSTMS MAY DRIFT NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON FAVORED OVER THE NC
WATERS N OF CAPE FEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE ALOFT. SEAS TODAY
WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE WIND PORTION OF THE SPECTRUM WITH S WAVES
2-3 FEET EVERY 5-6 SECONDS. THE ESE BERMUDA WAVE ENERGY 1-2 FEET
EVERY 8-9 SECONDS MAY MOSTLY BE MASKED BY THE MODERATE WIND-SEAS.
20 KT GUSTS SHOULD BE EXPECTED NEAR SHORE BETWEEN 3PM-7PM. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN/NEAR TSTMS.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...W/SW WINDS AROUND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
SATURDAY WILL TRANSITION TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUNDAY...AND
EVENTUALLY W/NW LATE SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH DROPS
INTO THE LOCAL WATERS. WIND SPEEDS ON SATURDAY WILL BE 15-20
KTS...THE HIGHEST DURING THE WKND...AND WILL PUSH WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO
3-4 FT. WHILE A SE GROUND SWELL WILL BE PRESENT...THE SPECTRUM WILL
BE MOSTLY CONTROLLED BY THE WIND WAVES ON SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY...AS
THE WINDS EASE AND BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE NW...SPEEDS WILL DROP TO
LESS THAN 10 KTS REGARDLESS OF DIRECTION. THIS WILL LEAVE THE SWELL
AS THE PREDOMINANT WAVE GROUP...AND SEAS WILL DROP TO 1 - 3FT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...WEAK FRONT/TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE AND LIFT
NORTH EARLY MONDAY. THIS LEAVES LIGHT WINDS THE FIRST PART OF
MONDAY...BUT AS BERMUDA HIGH RE-ASSERTS ITSELF THE DIRECTION WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS. ON TUESDAY...BERMUDA
HIGH WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ONCE AGAIN...AND SW WINDS WILL BE
PRESENT ACROSS THE WATERS AT 10-15 KTS. SEAS EARLY MONDAY WILL BE 1-
3 FT...BUT WILL INCREASE SLOWLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...BECOMING 3-4 FT
LATE TUESDAY AS THE SW WIND WAVE AMPLIFIES.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

635 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 607 AM FRIDAY...PICTURES FROM SPACE IN THE VAPOR CHANNEL
SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE EXPANDING NORTHWARD OVER THE SE AND THE
CAROLINAS. APPRECIABLE COLUMN MOISTURE OF GULF ORIGIN CAUGHT IN
THIS RIDGE IS CIRCULATING NORTH AND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING.

ONE FEATURE OF NOTE CAN BE DISCERNED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA WHERE
ENHANCED MOISTURE IS POOLED THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV THAT
IS DRAWING TOWARD CAPE FEAR. THE LATEST HRRR AND NSSL WRF MODEL
DEPICTIONS HANDLE THIS FEATURE AS A CONVECTIVE CATALYST WHICH IS
FEASIBLE AS THERE IS ALREADY SIMILAR HISTORY WITH THE IMPULSE AS
EARLIER CONVECTION OVER THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. INTERACTION
WITH A ROBUST SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY AND TIMING MIGRATION OF THE
PERTURBATION IMPLIES ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON PRIMARILY OVER OUR NORTH CAROLINA ZONES. SUBSIDENCE IN
WAKE OF THIS FEATURE IS SET TO OVERSPREAD NE SC AND SE NC IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON. THE SUBSIDENT REGION IS PRESENTLY EVIDENT IN VAPOR
MOVIES ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA. THE
WEAK COLUMN WINDS AND LOW SHEAR PARAMETERS SHOULD HINDER THE
SEVERE THREAT...BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
STRONG LOW-LEVEL HEATING.

MAXIMUMS TODAY A DEGREE OR TWO HOTTER THAN YESTERDAY MOST AREAS
OUTSIDE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION...UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S MOST
LOCATIONS WITH APPARENT TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER MILD OVERNIGHT ANTICIPATED...72-76 FOR
MINIMUMS EARLY SATURDAY...MILDEST NEAR THE SEA.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...

DANGEROUS HEAT THIS WEEKEND...

LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL DO LITTLE TO EASE THE HEAT...AND REAL MID-
SUMMER HUMID MINS IN THE MID TO UPR 70S ARE FORECAST BOTH NIGHTS.

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST
FEW HOURS IN BRINGING A BATCH OF CONVECTION INTO THE ILM AREA. STILL
NOTHING ON THE RADAR SO CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS RATHER LOW.
LIKEWISE...NOT MUCH ON SATELLITE EITHER AT THIS POINT. THIS MOISTURE
WILL WAVE NORTH TODAY...WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE RESULTANT WILL MOVE SLOWLY INLAND
TODAY...WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION SPREADING WESTWARD. LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY AND
MAINLY VFR.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 607 AM FRIDAY...SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES
WITH S-SW WINDS AND A WEAK BERMUDA ESE SWELL...ACCOMPANIED BY
GUSTS NEAR 20 KT INSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. A FEW
TSTMS MAY DRIFT NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON FAVORED OVER THE NC
WATERS N OF CAPE FEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE ALOFT. SEAS TODAY
WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE WIND PORTION OF THE SPECTRUM WITH S WAVES
2-3 FEET EVERY 5-6 SECONDS. THE ESE BERMUDA WAVE ENERGY 1-2 FEET
EVERY 8-9 SECONDS MAY MOSTLY BE MASKED BY THE MODERATE WIND-SEAS.
20 KT GUSTS SHOULD BE EXPECTED NEAR SHORE BETWEEN 3PM-7PM. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN/NEAR TSTMS.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43
MARINE...MJC/JDW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

607 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...

DANGEROUS HEAT THIS WEEKEND...

LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL DO LITTLE TO EASE THE HEAT...AND REAL MID-
SUMMER HUMID MINS IN THE MID TO UPR 70S ARE FORECAST BOTH NIGHTS.

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE DUE TO LOW CIGS OVERNIGHT INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH VCSH ALONG THE COAST TOWARDS MORNING.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH VCSH/VCTS ON THURSDAY.

VFR PREVAILS TONIGHT WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS. INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND FEW/SCT MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS TO LINGER ABOUT THE AREA. AS A RESULT...ANTICIPATE CLOUD
COVER TO INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...WILL NOT ENTIRELY RULE
OUT PATCHY FOG BEFORE DAYBREAK. INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR -SHRA/-TSRA EARLY ALONG THE
COAST...EVENTUALLY SPREADING TO THE INLAND AREAS BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO PERIODS OF LOW CIGS OR ANY HEAVY
DOWNPOUR. OTHERWISE...VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
AOB 12 KTS...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY
LATE EVENING...ANY CONVECTION WILL TAPER OFF AND VFR WILL PREVAIL
WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY AND
MAINLY VFR.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MJC
MARINE...MJC/JDW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

831 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 818 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

THE 11Z HRRR CONTINUES WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING BETWEEN
21Z AND 00Z SATURDAY IN THE WEST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL. LATEST
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MAXIMUM 3HR PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN...WEAKLY STRETCHING BACK INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS IS OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.
LIGHTNING PER REGIONAL AND CANADIAN RADAR REMAINS CLOSEST TO THE
MAX PRESSURE FALLS OVER SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN...NEAR YORKTON
SASKATCHEWAN. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD THE OVERALL TREND FOLLOWING
THE HRRR HANDLED WELL IN THE GRIDDED DATA WELL AND WILL CONTINUE
WITH THIS IDEA. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

EXPANDED THE MENTION OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL OF
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 85 AFTER
21 UTC AS THE 09 AND 10 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS DEVELOP ISOLATED
CONVECTION ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME
STORMS POSSIBLY STRONG TO SEVERE. SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE
AREA OF WESTERN ND IN MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...MAINLY
HIGHLIGHTING THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. MODELS
REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW OVER
WESTERN CANADA SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
REACHES WEST CENTRAL MANITOBA BY 00Z SAT WITH COLD FRONT JUST
ENTERING NORTHWEST ND. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH BAND OF SURFACE BASED CAPE FROM
500-1000 J/KG DEVELOPING AHEAD OF FRONT ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
STRONGEST 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE DISPLACED FARTHER WEST OF THE
BEST CAPE...OVER MONTANA CLOSER TO 100 KT 250MB JET STREAK...THOUGH
WE STILL SEE VALUES OF 30-40 KTS ENTERING WESTERN ND BY 00Z SAT.
BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING BEFORE CONVECTION BECOMES TOO ELEVATED. BY 12Z SAT...COLD
FRONT IS APPROACHING CENTRAL ND...ROUGHLY BETWEEN DICKINSON AND
BISMARCK.

FOR THIS MORNING...HAVE KEPT MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN THE
FORECAST WITH MOST OBS SHOWING VERY LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WITH A
COUPLE LOCATIONS REPORTING SOME LOWER VISIBILITY. KBIS ASOS WAS
BRIEFLY DOWN TO 4SM IN BR.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

MARGINAL SEVERE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

SPC HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF A SLOWLY
PROPAGATING COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. OVERALL...ONLY MODEST
DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH ML CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS AROUND 25-30 KTS...AS GREATER SHEAR VALUES LARGELY
REMAIN BEHIND THE FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
WINDS. ANOTHER CAVEAT LIMITING THE THREAT IS POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER
FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION THAT MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING
WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET...REDUCING DAYTIME HEATING. THUS...A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS NOT
FAVORED AT THIS TIME. THEREAFTER...QUASI-ZONAL FLOW IS FAVORED BY
THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES SUNDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK...SUPPORTIVE OF CLIMATOLOGICAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER
WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FAST UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO IMPACT
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AFTER MORNING SHALLOW FOG BURNS OFF. LOW CLOUDS NEAR KDIK
SHOW DIMINISHING TREND THE LAST COUPLE HOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECT
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS FRIDAY MORNING AT ALL LOCATIONS. THERE
IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO NORTHWEST ND AROUND 00Z SAT.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

646 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

MARGINAL SEVERE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SIOUX FALLS SD

622 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

BEYOND TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS DIFFERENCES BECOME MUCH
GREATER...LEADING TO MUCH HIGHER UNCERTAINTY. WILL LEAVE ALLBLEND
POPS AND TEMPERATURES IN PLACE FOR NOW.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

STRATUS IS THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TAFS AT KSUX AND KFSD. A LARGE
AREA OF STRATUS REMAINS OVER NW IOWA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF SW MN
AND SE SD. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS SUCH THAT THE STRATUS WILL MOVE
LITTLE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS MEANS MVFR CELINGS CAN BE EXPECTED
ALL MORNING WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CIGS. AS TEMPERATURES WARM
LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECTING THAT
STRATUS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT ABOVE 2000 FT AND ALSO
ERODE...ESPECIALLY AT THE EDGES. AT THIS TIME...EXPECTING THIS
WILL BE ENOUGH TO GIVE KFSD VFR CONDITIONS FOR A TIME THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HWOEVER...IT IS UNLIKELY THAT KSUX WILL
LOSE THE CEILING ALTHOUGH SURFACE WARMING SHOULD LIFT THE CEILING
TO VFR FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK IN AND EXPECT MVFR CIGS AFTER 06Z
SATURDAY. THERE MAY ALSO BE LIGHT MVFR FOG AT KSUX.

ONCE LIGHT FOG BURNS OFF EARLY THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT KHON THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SCHUMACHER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEMPHIS TN

1043 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/12Z UPPER AIR PLOTS INDICATE
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. AS OF 10 AM
CDT...SKIES ARE SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

LATEST SHORT TERM TRENDS INCLUDING THE HRRR INDICATE A POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE MID SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE
REACHED WITH PERHAPS THE BEST COVERAGE OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI ONCE AGAIN. A STRONG TO PERHAPS ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM MAY BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AS THE POTENTIAL
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.

WILL MAKE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND ANY OTHER ELEMENTS
AS NEEDED TO ACCOUNT FOR SHORT TERM TRENDS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST
OVERALL IS IN GREAT SHAPE.

UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

CJC

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THIS
MORNING. A VERY SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
NORTH GULF COAST NORTH INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE WATER VAPOR
LOOP INDICATES SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE FROM ABOUT I-40 SOUTHWARD.
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S
AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO STRENGTHEN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY. MODELS ARE A LITTLE LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH OVERALL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY. CUT POPS ABOUT 10 PERCENT AREAWIDE
LEAVING CHANCE POPS WHERE THE MOISTURE IS A BIT DEEPER AS DEPICTED
BY THE WATER VAPOR LOOP AND SLIGHT CHANCES ELSW. BUMPED TEMPS UP
A DEGREE OR TWO AS WELL...MAINLY LOWER 90S. CONVECTION WILL
DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT ON TAP WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. DURING THE WEEKEND. ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE MODELS SEEM TO BE PICKING UP ON A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES
MOVING NORTH FROM THE NORTH GULF COAST THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS WEEKEND. LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH...INCLUDING THE DELTA...WITH LOWER POPS
TOWARD THE TN RIVER WHERE THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS
STRONGER. THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT CONVECTION AT ANY TIME DURING
THIS PERIOD COVERAGE SHOULD BE GREATEST DURING THE AFTN/EARLY
EVENING PERIODS. HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN THE
PAST FEW DAYS WITH INCREASED PRECIP AND CLOUDS BUT STILL
WARM...UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.

NEXT WEEK...LOOKS LIKE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN FOR THE
MIDSOUTH. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY WITH THE GFS A
LITTLE WEAKER WITH THE SOUTHEAST U.S. UPPER RIDGE EARLY IN THE
WEEK FOLLOWED BY A WEAK UPPER TROF MOVING IN LATER IN THE WEEK.
THE ECMWF KEEPS THE RIDGE IN PLACE ALL WEEK. THE GFS WOULD BE THE
WETTER AND COOLER SOLUTION. AT THIS POINT TOOK A COMPROMISE
APPROACH TO POPS AND TEMPS...BASICALLY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.

SJM

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR THIS PERIOD...THOUGH A BRIEF VSBY REDUCTION IN CONVECTION MAY
THREATEN TUP. REMOVED VCTS AT MEM AND MKL AS STORMS APPEAR TOO
ISOLATED AND MORE ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. PERIODS OF VCSH
IS MORE LIKELY.

BIGGEST CONCERN THIS PERIOD WILL BE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AT MEM AND
JBR. WINDS WILL REMAIN STOUT OVERNIGHT AT MEM.

JAB

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NASHVILLE TN

1016 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.UPDATE...

SEEING OUR FIRST ECHOES POP UP OVER SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND
NORTHERN ALABAMA OVER THAT LAST 30 MINUTES. HRRR HAS BEEN
INDICATING MORE ACTIVITY TODAY THAN WE SAW YESTERDAY...WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS KICKING OFF BY 16Z. IT`S LIKELY THAT SOME
PLACES IN THE NORTHWEST COULD SEE A SHOWER BEFORE 18Z...SO
INCREASED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE THIS MORNING OVER THAT AREA. THE
12Z SOUNDING INDICATED INCREASING MOISTURE OVER OUR AREA WITH
PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHEAR SO WE`LL
LIKELY SEE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015/

UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF`S.

AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS SITUATED TO OUR EAST
WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. AIR
MASS HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE, WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. LIGHT RADIATION FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AFTER 06Z.

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS MORRISTOWN TN

1021 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST IS ON THE RIGHT TRACK THIS MORNING...BUT A FEW SMALL
TWEAKS WILL BE MADE FOR THE UPDATE. THE 12Z OHS SOUNDING SHOWS
QUITE A BIT MORE MOISTURE THAN YESTERDAY...HOWEVER THERE IS VERY
LITTLE INSTABILITY. THE FFC SOUNDING LOOKS MORE STABLE TODAY AS
WELL. MODEL CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS THIS AFTERNOON ARE RATHER
BLAND...WITH THE RAP SHOWING MIN LI AROUND -3 AND MAX K INDEX IN
THE MID 30S. THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP REFLECTIVITY DEPICTIONS SHOW
SCATTERED COVERAGE AT BEST TODAY...WITH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA HAVING SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE THAN THE SOUTHERN HALF. WILL
ADJUST POPS TO LOWER ALL AREAS INTO THE CHANCE RANGE. OVERCAST
CLOUDS SOUTH ARE HOLDING TEMPS BACK A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN
FORECAST...AND WILL LOWER FORECAST HIGHS THERE A DEGREE OR TWO.

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

DGS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LUBBOCK TX

549 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS ARE ON TRACK TO REACH LBB SHORTLY BEHIND AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WITH NELY WINDS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THEIR EROSION IS POOR
AS MODELS HAVE BEEN ABYSMAL WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/S LOCATION
AND STRATUS. LOW CIGS MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON AT ALL
SITES...BUT WILL KEEP VFR ON TRACK BY 18Z OR SO AS NE WINDS SHOULD
VEER E-SE. MOST MORNING TSRA WILL AFFECT CDS WITH ONLY SPOTTY TS
ELSEWHERE.

BY MID-AFTERNOON...THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD THAT +TSRA WITH A
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURSTS WILL DEVELOP JUST WEST OF LBB
AND PVW BEFORE REACHING CDS NEAR 00Z. LOW CIGS SEEM LIKELY AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH ANOTHER THREAT FOR SOME TS.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 438 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015/

SHORT TERM...
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL FALL IN THE
CROSSHAIRS FOR SEVERE STORMS LATER TODAY GIVEN MULTIPLE SURFACE
BOUNDARIES...STRONG INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
09Z SURFACE PATTERN FEATURED A COLD FRONT AIDED BY OUTFLOWS EDGING
SOUTH FROM FRIONA- TULIA-VIGO PARK WITH A DRYLINE ACROSS EASTERN
NM. FORTY KNOT LLJ ORIENTED FROM MAF-LBB-AMA HAS BEEN AIDING STORM
REGENERATION ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT...SOME OF WHICH
WILL IMPACT OUR NERN COUNTIES IN THE HOURS AHEAD. IN THE WAKE OF
THESE STORMS...PRESSURE RISES SHOULD RELAX FROM W-E GIVEN A LACK
OF FURTHER REINFORCING OUTFLOWS/MESOHIGHS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE
FRONT TO STALL ALBEIT A FAIR AMOUNT FARTHER SOUTH THAN MOST MODELS
INDICATE AS THEY ARE NOT PROPERLY RESOLVING THE CURRENT PACE OF
THE OUTFLOW /E.G. 35 KNOT NORTHEAST WIND AT CVS AT 850MB AT THE
TIME OF THIS WRITING/.

LONG TERM...
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY HINGES QUITE A BIT ON HOW THINGS UNFOLD
TODAY. IF CONVECTION IS ONGOING THROUGH SUNRISE SATURDAY ACROSS
ANY PART OF THE AREA...THAT MAY BE ENOUGH TO STABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON RESULTING IN FEW TO NO STORMS
THROUGH THE DAY. THE MAIN WAVE THAT WILL HAVE HELPED STORMS ON
FRIDAY WILL BE PRETTY FAR NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH ANOTHER WAVE
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS...COMBINED WITH ANOTHER
STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...COULD RESULT IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
LOW-LEVEL JET WOULD ALSO HELP BOOST BULK SHEAR ENOUGH THAT
ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL. ALL THIS
PULLED TOGETHER FAVORS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THE OTHER IMPACT FROM THE INCREASED MOISTURE...CLOUD
COVER...AND PRECIPITATION IS THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN
THE LOW 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION FOR SATURDAY.

JORDAN

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TUCSON AZ

1027 AM MST FRI JUN 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LINGERING MOISTURE AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...DRY
CONDITIONS WITH A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND WILL PREVAIL INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES 4 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ARE EXPECTED NEXT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FROM
TUCSON WESTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN DESERTS LIKELY EXCEEDING 105
DEGREES.

.DISCUSSION...THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN IS DEFINED BY AN UPPER
LOW OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO...A SAGGING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA AND CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA...AND A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
CUMULUS ACROSS THE RIM/WHITE MOUNTAINS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE TO RESULT IN A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE WHITES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS REINFORCED
BY THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND UOFA NAM/GFS WRF MODEL RUNS WHICH
DEPICT WEAK CONVECTION DEVELOPING. IN ANY EVENT...THIS IS DEPICTED
WELL WITH THE INHERITED FORECAST. NO UPDATES WILL BE NECESSARY.

OTHERWISE...AFTER A QUICK LOOK AT THE 12Z MODEL RUNS...STILL LOOKS
LIKE WE ARE IN LINE FOR SOME HOT TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. LOOKING AT A LOCAL STUDY USING REGRESSION VALUES OF THE
850-700MB THICKNESS AND RELATING THEM TO AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES,
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING HIGH TEMPS IN TUCSON IN THE 105-109 DEG RANGE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT DECREASE FROM THE
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...CONFIDENCE IS STILL HIGH THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE ABOVE 105 DEGS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

GIVEN THE THERMAL LOW OVER SW AZ AND A PIECE OF THE UPPER HIGH THAT
SPLINTERS OFF INTO NEW MEXICO...MOISTURE MAY CREEP INTO THE FAR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. GIVEN
THE TEMPERATURES...THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME HIGH BASED CONVECTION/
DRY STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON EAST OF TUCSON WITH THE THREAT OF
STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC STORM OUTFLOW WINDS.

.PREV DISCUSSION...A LARGE BUT WEAK TROUGH REMAINS ORIENTED NE TO SW
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE WESTERN US THIS MORNING WITH A
DECENT BAND OF MOISTURE FROM COLORADO SW TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.
THIS BAND WILL VERY SLOWLY SAG SOUTH AS THIS TROUGH GRADUALLY MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST AND WILL RESULT IN A SMALL THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
MONDAY. THAT IS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT AND HAVE
A DRY FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WITH SKIES
GENERALLY CLEAR OTHER THAN A BIT OF AFTERNOON CUMULUS.

WITH THE WEAKENING TROUGH OVERHEAD...AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH EACH DAY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY.
THEN HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES RISE NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING EVEN FURTHER...AND LIKELY 4-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
RESPECT TO AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND
POTENTIALLY THURSDAY. I HAVE TWEAKED TEMPERATURES UP A DEGREE OR
TWO THIS PERIOD WITH AREAS FROM TUCSON WESTWARD ABOVE 105 DEGREES.
AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY WHERE I
HAVE TUCSON AT 107 FOR EXAMPLE...AND THAT IS IN ALIGNMENT WITH MOS
GUIDANCE. HOWEVER LOCAL STATISTICAL GUIDANCE BASED OFF THICKNESS
VALUES WOULD SUGGEST IT WILL BE WARMER THAN THAT. DECIDED NOT TO
PUSH IT HIGHER AT THIS TIME WITH A CONCERN FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE
THAT WILL NOT BE ALL THAT FAR AWAY AND MAY IMPACT THE AREA WITH SOME
CLOUD COVER.

FROM THURSDAY ONWARD THIS TROPICAL MOISTURE AND THE UNKNOWN
INFLUENCE OF HOW CARLOS MAY OR MAY NOT AFFECT OUR AREA BRINGS INTO
QUESTION THE THREAT OF MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING OVER PARTS
OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK WHICH COULD BRING A BIT OF HIGH BASED
CONVECTION TO THE AREA. THERE IS A LOT OF VARIANCE IN THE GUIDANCE
AT THIS TIME SO HAVE NOT TWEAKED POPS MUCH BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED. WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE ON THE DOORSTEP YOU NEVER KNOW.

.AVIATION...VALID THROUGH 13/18Z.
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TODAY. A FEW
CLOUD BUILDUPS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA/-TSRA ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS NE OF KSAD THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SURFACE WIND THIS
AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE WLY AT 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25
KTS. TERRAIN-DRIVEN WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS WILL OCCUR
OTHERWISE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GENERALLY LIGHT TERRAIN-DRIVEN WINDS WILL
PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF SOME GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS EAST OF TUCSON
DURING THE AFTERNOONS.

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

1030 AM PDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL RESULT IN
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN COOL SLIGHTLY THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK
AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST.

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:45 AM PDT FRIDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
SHOWING A LITTLE LESS IN THE WAY OF INLAND STRATUS THIS
MORNING...WITH JUST SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS NOTED ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE AND IN THE NORTHERN SALINAS VALLEY AT THIS
TIME. THE MARINE LAYER IS MORE SHALLOW...AROUND 1000 FEET PER THE
FORT ORD PROFILER...AND SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE WEAKER
ONSHORE AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER OFFSHORE (SFO-SAC 1.0 MB...WMC-SFO
3.0 MB) AS A RESULT OF THIS...PLUS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...MAX
TEMPERATURES INLAND ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH MAX TEMPS APPROACHING 100
DEGREES IN SOME AREAS...NAMELY EXTREME NORTHERN SONOMA
COUNTY...EASTERN CONTRA COSTA COUNTY...SAN BENITO AND SOUTHERN
MONTEREY COUNTY.

THE GFS...NAM...WRF AND HRRR MODELS ALL HINT AT SOME POSSIBLE
CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING OVER FAR SOUTHERN
SAN BENITO COUNTY. THIS WILL PROBABLY TURN OUT TO BE SOME CLOUD
BUILDUPS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND WILL ADD THIS TO THE
FORECAST FOR TODAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SAG OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
BEGINNING TOMORROW AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH...THE TROUGH IS NOT FORECAST TO DEEPEN SUBSTANTIALLY...
THERE IS STILL SOME INCREASE IN THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AND A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED...SO THE COOL-DOWN COULD
BE A LITTLE MORE GRADUAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND THAN EARLIER
ADVERTISED. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DON`T REALLY COOL OFF UNTIL
MONDAY PER THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS. AFTER MIDWEEK...THE GFS ALSO
HAS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDING INTO CALIFORNIA FROM THE SOUTH
FOR WARMER TEMPS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF
KEEPS A TROUGH OVER THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEK. WILL WAIT FOR THE
12Z ECMWF BEFORE MAKING CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED TEMPS.

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:29 AM PDT FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS
ANOTHER ROUND OF CIGS/FOG TONIGHT. AMPLE CLOUDS REMAIN ALONG THE
COAST AND SEE NO REASON WHY THERE WOULD NOT BE A RETURN OF CLOUDS
TONIGHT. CONF IS A LITTLE LESS ON CLOUD COVERAGE IN SF BAY
TOMORROW MORNING...BUT WILL MENTION SOME CIGS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CIGS THROUGH THIS EVENING. MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSS TOMORROW AM AS MARINE LAYER DEEPENS
SLIGHTLY.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS/FOG
RETURN EARLY TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

.MARINE...AS OF 10:26 AM PDT FRIDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE STRONGEST
NORTH OF POINT REYES EARLY TODAY THEN SPREADING SOUTHWARD BY THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER SAN PABLO
BAY...SUISUN BAY...THE WEST DELTA AND SAN FRANCISCO BAY NORTH OF
THE BAY BRIDGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 4 PM
SCA...SF BAY FROM 2 PM

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

944 AM PDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:12 AM PDT FRIDAY...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE
FOUND AT THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE MOSTLY FROM POINT REYES SOUTH ALL
THE WAY TO SOCAL. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXTENDING INTO THE
SALINAS VALLEY AS WELL. FOG JUST RECENTLY DEVELOPED AT KSTS...AMENDED
12Z TAF TO INCLUDE IFR TIL 16Z.

LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING TOGETHER FAIRLY WELL WITH ONLY
MINOR (~100-300 FEET) UP/DOWN FLUCTUATIONS SEEN IN THE MARINE
LAYER INVERSION OVERNIGHT. INVERSION BASES ARE 1000-1200 FEET. 500
MB HEIGHTS EDGE SLIGHTLY UP TODAY...ABOUT 1 DECAMETER...ONLY TO
LOSE THAT MUCH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE FLAT
TO DOWN SLIGHTLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...THE COMPRESSED MARINE LAYER IS HELPING TO REDUCE
THE CHANCES OF SEEING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AT THE TERMINAL THIS MORNING.
IT`S A HIGH PROB VFR FORECAST. LOWEST CONFIDENCE IS ACTUALLY IN THE
SURFACE WINDS FORECAST. WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD PICK UP THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT NOT SURE IF WE`LL SEE GUSTS UP OVER 20 KNOTS. THE
MARINE LAYER DEPTH WILL BECOME CRITICAL HERE AT THIS POINT WHEN
COUPLED WITH THE PREDICTED 4 MB SFO-SAC ONSHORE GRADIENT. IF THE
MARINE LAYER BECOMES A BIT DEEPER...EVEN JUST ANOTHER COUPLE HUNDRED
FEET...THEN WE COULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING GUSTS CLIMBING
UP TO THE 20-29 KNOT RANGE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR...HIGH PROB THIS MORNING. LOW
CLOUDS PRETTY WELL LOCKED IN FOR THE MORNING HOURS. LOW TO MODERATE
CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR CLEARING BETWEEN 18Z-20Z TODAY. LOW
CLOUDS/IFR LIKELY RETURNING 03Z-05Z THIS EVENING.

.MARINE...AS OF 8:53 AM PDT FRIDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE STRONGEST
NORTH OF POINT REYES EARLY TODAY THEN SPREADING SOUTHWARD BY THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER SAN PABLO
BAY...SUISUN BAY...THE WEST DELTA AND SAN FRANCISCO BAY NORTH OF
THE BAY BRIDGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 4 PM
SCA...SF BAY FROM 2 PM

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAUNTON MA

201 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM WEATHER TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...
MAINLY NORTHWEST OF A BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE LINE. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH PERHAPS A FEW LEFT OVER
SHOWERS...BUT DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER FOLLOWS LATER SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SOMETIME MONDAY...POSSIBLY
LINGERING INTO PART OF TUESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
2 PM UPDATE...
SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS ASSOCD WITH THE 850 MB WARM FRONT
MOVING N OF SNE WHILE SFC WARM SECTOR STILL A BIT SOUTH AND WEST
OF NYC AREA. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S ACROSS SNE WHILE SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY DEWPOINTS ARE NEAR 70. IT APPEARS THE TRUE WARM
SECTOR WILL REMAIN MOSTLY WEST OF SNE THROUGH EARLY EVENING WHICH
WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. MAIN FOCUS FOR TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS PA AND NY WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR AND AXIS OF MAX INSTABILITY. LOW PROB AN ISOLD
STORM COULD SPILL INTO FAR W ZONES TOWARD EVENING AND HRRR BRINGS
SOME CONVECTION INTO BERKSHIRES AROUND 7 PM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE KEEPS CONVECTION MAINLY WEST OF NEW ENG
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHERE BEST INSTABILITY. ALSO THERE IS A
SHARP GRADIENT TO THE INSTABILITY JUST TO THE WEST SO STORMS WILL
LIKELY WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO NEW ENG AS THEY MOVE AWAY FROM
MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. STILL LOW RISK OF AN ISOLD STRONG
STORM SPILLING INTO W MA AND NW CT LATE TODAY/EARLY EVENING GIVEN
FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES. PWATS ALSO INCREASE WITH THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM...ON ORDER OF 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES SO POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH ANY TSTMS.

850 MB TEMPS RISE TO +15C TO +18C THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 80S AWAY FROM THE S COAST...THOUGH A FEW SPOTS MIGHT
NUDGE 90...BUT IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...

WILL SEE LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH AROUND 02Z WITH
FIRST SHORT WAVE PASSING E...SOME MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK...THEN ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE APPROACHES PASSING LOW PRES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY MAINLY
ACROSS N OF THE MASS PIKE. INSTABILITY BECOMES ELEVATED...SO CAN
NOT RULE OUT STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH THE CONTINUED HIGH PWATS.

COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION BUT WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
NIGHT. DEWPTS REMAIN HIGH...SO EXPECT TEMPS NOT TO FALL TOO LOW
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL ONLY FALL TO BETWEEN 65 AND 70...EXCEPT THE
LOWER-MID 60S ALONG THE S COAST WITH ONSHORE WINDS KEEPING
READINGS A BIT LOWER THERE OFF THE COOLER WATER.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A FEW LEFT OVER SHOWERS POSSIBLE SAT AM
* OTHERWISE DRY/SEASONABLE WEATHER THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
* PERIOD OF SCT SHOWERS/ISO STORMS MON/MON NIGHT MAY LINGER INTO TUE
* DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY

DETAILS...

SATURDAY...

STILL SOME MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING. LEFT OVER SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE MORNING...DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...DRYING MID LEVEL AIR AND DIMINISHING
INSTABILITY WILL PROBABLY BRING AN END TO THE RISK FOR ANY
CONVECTION/LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL BY DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE...UNCERTAIN ON HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS WILL BREAK. MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS INDICATE THERE COULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AROUND AT
LEAST INTO MID AFTERNOON SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE...BUT SHOULD SEE
SOME SUN EVENTUALLY EMERGE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. HIGH TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE 70S ON THE COAST AND BETWEEN 80 AND 85 INLAND.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL RESULT IN MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES....PLEASANT TEMPS AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. LOWS SAT
NIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT WELL DOWN INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE OUTLYING
LOCATIONS...TO LOWER 60S IN THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND OF BOSTON. HIGH
TEMPS ON SUN WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S JUST INLAND FROM THE
COAST. ALONG THE COAST...SEA BREEZES WILL HOLD HIGHS IN THE 70S AND
A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY MAY HAVE TEMPS BETWEEN 65 AND 70 IN SOME
LOCALES.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...

THE NEXT COLD FRONT/SHORTWAVE ARRIVES BRING A PERIOD OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SOMETIME MONDAY OR MONDAY
NIGHT...PERHAPS LINGERING INTO PART OF TUESDAY DEPENDING ON TIMING
OF FRONT. PWATS 2+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS MAY BRING BRIEF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE ACTIVITY...BUT THAT WILL DEPEND ON TIMING
AND WHERE BEST FORCING SETS UP.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN SHOULD BRING DRY AND SEASONABLE TEMPS
WEDNESDAY. PERHAPS THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THU OR FRI WITH THE
RISK FOR MORE SCATTERED PRECIPITATION...BUT VERY LOW CONFIDENCE.

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

THROUGH 00Z...VFR. AN ISOLD STORM POSSIBLE IN W MA TOWARD 00Z.

TONIGHT...IFR STRATUS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING
AND GRADUALLY SPREAD INLAND DURING THE NIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
HOW FAR INLAND THE LOW CLOUDS WILL GET. AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY
BE CONFINED TO THE S COAST GIVEN SW FLOW. SHOWERS AND WEAKENING
TSTMS MAY BE MOVING THROUGH THE INTERIOR THIS EVENING WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS...THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT.

SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR IN THE CT VALLEY BY 12Z.
OTHERWISE...IFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT SHOWERS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE MORNING BUT MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL
AFTERNOON FOR CAPE/ISLANDS.

SAT NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR...BUT LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEABREEZE WILL GIVE
WAY TO SOUTH WIND BY LATE AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT. SEABREEZE REDEVELOPS BY EARLY AFTERNOON SAT.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. AN EVENING TSTM
POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SUNDAY..HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS PROBABLY DEVELOP IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND/OR MONDAY NIGHT...BUT TIMING UNCERTAIN.
IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR SOMETIME TUESDAY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT.

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...EXPECT SW WINDS INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20 KT. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 4 FT.

TONIGHT...SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 20 KT. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS TO THE WATERS E OF
CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET SO HAVE RAISED SMALL CRAFTS THERE MAINLY
LATE TONIGHT. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NEAR
OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH
REDUCED VSBYS EARLY TONIGHT THAT MAY PUSH TO THE EASTERN WATERS
NEAR OR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. 3 TO 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING...BEFORE DIMINISHING
BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. PATCHY FOG AND A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE SAT AM...BUT IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED BY
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFTS TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST LATE SAT MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF GUSTS IN THE LOWER 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
EXCELLENT BOATING WEATHER TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND WITH GOOD
VISIBILITY AS WELL.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MARGINAL SCA SOUTHERLY
WIND GUSTS AND SEAS MAY DEVELOP LATE MON INTO PART OF TUE AHEAD OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ254-
255.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ256.

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...KJC/FRANK
MARINE...FRANK/EVT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

142 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL SURGE NORTH TO THE MOHAWK VALLEY BY THIS
EVENING...THEN SWEEP SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT STALLING IN
THE I80 CORRIDOR. THIS FRONT WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
SEVERE...THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH FAIR MAINLY DRY
WEATHER IN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. WITH THE FRONT STALLED JUST
SOUTH OF THE REGION...THERE COULD BE SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN TIER. THE FRONT WILL AGAIN SURGE BACK NORTH THROUGH OUR
REGION MONDAY AND RETREAT SOUTH TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER BOUT OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS EXPANDED THE AREA FOR THE SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA SO NOW IS
INCLUDES ALL OF OUR NEW YORK COUNTIES AND BERKSHIRE COUNTY. THEY
HAVE ALSO BROUGHT THE TORNADO PROBABILITY OUTLOOK BACK INTO THE
AREA WITH THE 5% CONTOUR ACROSS THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS WITH THE 2% OUTLOOK CORRESPONDING WITH THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA. KENX VAD WIND PROFILE NOW INDICATES SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS AT 2000 FEET TURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST BY 4000-5000 FEET. THE
WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE GRADUALLY NORTHWARD AND IT IS EXPECTED
TO STALL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...NORTH I-90. THE ATMOSPHERE IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND
LOW/SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE ELEMENTS ARE
COMING INTO PLACE FOR A SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING THE THREAT FOR
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION HAS BEEN ISSUED AND EXTENTS JUST INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA...MCD #986. SPECIAL 18Z ALY BALLOON BEING LAUNCH
WHICH WILL GIVE A US A GOOD LOOK AT THE ATMOSPHERE THE CONVECTION
WILL BE FIRING UP IN AND HELP DETERMINE TYPE OF WATCHES WHICH WILL
BE NEEDED.

PREVIOUS...BASED ON 12Z ALB SOUNDING AND SPC MESOANALYSIS
PAGE...STABLE AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS IN PLACE FOR NOW WITH SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WARM FRONT
PRODUCING THE CONVECTIVE CELLS WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE
DEGREE OF EVENTUAL INSTABILITY IS UNCERTAIN...AS THERE IS QUESTION
AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT WILL PROGRESS BEFORE STALLING.
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS MAY BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO PRECLUDE A
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...BUT THIS IS NOT CERTAIN. SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...OUR HI-RES WRF AND HRRR INDICATING DISCRETE CELLS WILL
MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WELL AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY BEFORE IT MOVES SOUTH. THERE IS CONCERN FOR ROTATING
STORMS DUE TO STRONG MAGNITUDE OF 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40+ KTS. WE WILL
BE CONDUCTING A SPECIAL SOUNDING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO OBTAIN A
BETTER ASSESSMENT FOR THE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT.
IT APPEARS THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH
MONITORING FOR ROTATION WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN DUE TO SHEAR
MAGNITUDE. LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY NOT BE A MAIN THREAT BUT CANNOT
BE RULED OUT IN TALLER UPDRAFTS AND IN ROTATING STORMS.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS SFC WAVE WILL INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY NORTH AND WEST.
THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE WAVE
COMPARED TO THE NAM. THE NAM ALSO IS COPIOUS WITH THE QPF COMPARED
TO THE ECMWF/GFS.

THE BEST SFC BASED INSTABILITY ON THE NAM IS WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY WITH 1000-2000 J/KG WITH MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS TO
THE EAST. THE GFS INCREASES SBCAPES TO 500-1000 J/KG FROM THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION SOUTH...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE
NORTH. IT WAS NOTED OVER CNTRL NY SBCAPES INCREASE TO 1000-3000
J/KG ON THE NAM...BUT SFC DEWPTS ARE IN THE LOWER 70S. SFC DEWPTS
SHOULD RISE IN THE 60S ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF OUR FCST WITH SOME
MID AND U60S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH. OUR THINKING IS THAT
THE SBCAPES WILL BE IN THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE LATE THIS PM WITH
THE HIGHEST VALUES FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND WEST. THE 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 35-45 KTS ESPECIALLY FROM THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION SOUTH. DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS
LIKELY. THE DEEP SHEAR IS EVEN STRONGER TO THE NORTH...BUT LESS
INSTABILITY IS PROGGED THERE. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STILL LOOK
RATHER WEAK IN THE 5-6C/KM RANGE. TOWARDS 00Z AND THEREAFTER...THE
0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES START TO INCREASE TO 20-30 KTS...WITH
VERY HIGH LOW- LEVEL HELICITY VALUES IN THE 100-300 RANGE. THE
PRIMARY MODE OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE BE
MULTICELLS EVOLVING INTO A LINE OR TWO...BUT SOME DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. ACTUALLY...WITH THE WAVE LIKELY
PASSING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND CNTRL VT...AND MCS MAY FORM
IN THE WARM SECTOR. AGAIN...THE TIMING LOOKS LIKE LATE THIS PM
/4-6PM/ BEFORE ANY STRONG CONVECTION POTENTIALLY REACHES THE WRN
DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY/CATSKILLS.

PWAT VALUES RISE TO 1.50-2.0 INCHES IN THE MOIST AIR MASS. SOME
HIGHER VALUES ARE EVEN EVIDENT IN THE BUFKIT PROFILES FOR
KALB/KPOU/KGFL. INTENSE RAINFALL RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE NAM HAS BEEN
PERSISTENT WITH A ONE TO THREE INCH AREA OF RAINFALL OVER THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/SRN ADIRONDACKS/LAKE GEORGE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. IT SEEMS BE ON ITS OWN AT THIS POINT COMPARED TO THE
GFS/ECMWF/CAN GGEM.

TONIGHT...WE EXPECT THE SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...BUT DWINDLE TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. THE INSTABILITY REALLY
DIMINISHES SHORTLY BEFORE OR AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS THE SFC WAVE
PASSES DOWNSTREAM STREAM OVER NEW ENGLAND...AND THE COLD FRONT
SLIDES SOUTH. THE POTENTIAL WILL STILL EXIST FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE POPS DIMINISH NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION AFTER 06Z...AND WE
KEPT CHC POPS TO THE SOUTH THEREAFTER. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE MID AND U60S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH...AND U50S TO L60S
WELL TO THE NORTH.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD CONTINUES THE THEME OF FCA ON THE BATTLE LINES BETWEEN
HOT HUMID AIRMASS...AND WARM MODERATE ONE. THERE`S SOME SPREAD
AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS PARTICULARLY BY LATE SUNDAY.

AT 500HPA RIDGE BUILDS INTO GRTLKS RGN...AS ONE OR TWO VORT MAXES
RIDE TROUGH IT. INITIALLY SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS SOUTH OF
FCA ALONG I80 CORRIDOR. -SHRA AND TSTM ACTIVITY ENDS IN MOST AREAS
BFE FCST PERIOD. SFC HIGH OVER ONT/QB BUILDS EAST...BUT NOT AS
FAR SOUTH AS PVS DAYS GUID. THE GFS KEEPS MORE CLOUDS ACROSS S
TIER AND SLIGHT CHC -SHRA/TSTM AS WELL SAT. THE NAM/GEM/ECMWF PUSH
THE CLOUDS AND FRONT FURTHER SOUTH...AND KEEP ENTIRE AREA DRY THROUGH
SUN. AT ALB PVS GEFS ENSEMBLES KEEP PCPN OUT TILL LATE SUN NT.

SO ALL AND ALL A FAIR DRY WEEKEND. MS NORTH...PS SOUTH.

SUN NT THE NEXT SHORT WV RIDES OVER THE TOP OF THE 500HPA RIDGE
WITH ITS ASSOC SFC LOW MVNG INTO UPR GRTLKS. THIS SURGES THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NE AS A WMFNT TO SYR-DCA LINE SUN NT...WHICH
SURGES NE THROUGH OUR FCA MON...PLACING ENTIRE AREA IN MUGGY
AIRMASS. MON NT OR EARLY TUES...THE SFC LOW HAS MOVED TO MAINE AND
DRAGS A TRAILING CDFNT THROUGH FCA.

MODELS HAVE SOME SPREAD IN TIMING OF THESE EVENTS...BUT NOT THE
EVENTS THEMSELVES. THE OPERATIONAL GFS/NAM ARE SLOWER BRINGING
INCRG CLOUDS AND INCRG THREAT OF SHRA/TSTMS WITH MON/TUES SYSTEM
INTO RGN MIDDAY MON. THE GEM/12 UTC ECMWF/GEFS ENSEMBLES/WPC
BRING THEM IN SUN NT. AT THIS POINT WILL BRING CHC TSTMS/SHRA TO W
PERIPHERY SUN NT AND ACROSS FCA MON TAKING A CONSENSUS VIEW. MAY
ADJUST DEPENDING ON ECMWF. TEMPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE ABV
NORMALS.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE WAR OF THE AIR MASSES CONTINUES AS FCA IS ON S EDGE OF THE
WESTERLYS UNDER A FLAT RIDGE AS HIEGHTS GRADUALLY BUILD AT 500 HPA
AS DOES THE RIDGING ON THE E SEABOARD.

TUE THE BOUNDARY...AT THIS MOMENT A CDFNT DROPS SOUTH THRU FCA AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GRTLKS LKS. SHRA END IN THE
MRNG...AND GENERALLY FAIR AND DRY CONDS RESULT TUES AFTN THROUGH
WED.

WED NT INTO THU NEXT SHORT WV MVS INTO THE UPR GRT LKS...AS SFC HIGH
DEPARTS OFFSHORE. WAA INCR BACK INTO NEW YORK AND NEW ENG...AS FNT
MOVES TO ERI-PHL LINE THU MRNG...AND N TO MHWK VLY BY END OF
EFP(ECMWF) AND AS FAR N AS I-80 IN GFS.

BOTH MDLS IMPLY SOME KINDA MCS ACROSS MID ATLC RGN WED NT INTO
THU...WITH THE GFS BRINGING PCPN AS FAR N AS MHWK VLY...AND ECMWF
KEEPING IT IN PA/NJ. WPC KEEPS FRONTS AND PCPN CHCS S OF FCA THU
THU.

FOR NOW WILL CARRY CHC TSTMS WED NT INTO THU. WILL INITIALLY POPULATE
WITH HPC...BUT ADJUST CONSIDERABLY TO FIT ECMWF/GUID. TEMPS WILL BE
NR NORMAL...TRENDING BLO DURING THIS PERIOD AS FCA IS LARGELY ON
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONTS.

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WARM FRONT CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL STALL ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT STARTS TO PUSH SOUTHWARD
AS A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
POSSIBLY MULTIPLE ROUNDS LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING HOURS.
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR TSRA WILL BE FROM KGFL-KALB-KPSF SO
WILL MENTION TEMPO GROUP FOR THESE TERMINALS...WITH VCSH AT KPOU
WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER PROBABILITIES.

CHANCES FOR THUNDER WILL DECREASE AFTER 04Z SATURDAY...WITH A FEW
HOURS OF -SHRA POSSIBLE AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. BRIEF OR
OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS
AS WELL AS THE COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH VFR SHOULD PREVAIL MUCH OF THE
TIME. SKIES WILL CLEAR SATURDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER
AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-10 KTS...ALTHOUGH MUCH STRONGER
WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY TSRA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATER
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING...AS A
STATIONARY FRONT MOVES BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. THE WARM
FRONT WILL USHER IN A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS...ALONG WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A MAINLY DRY WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TO 40 AND 55 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 90 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...AND LOWER TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND BE 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.

.HYDROLOGY...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY WHERE A COLD
FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL RESULTING IN LOCALIZED FLOODING URBAN/SMALL STREAM
FLOODING. ALSO...DEPENDING ON EXACT LOCATIONS OF THUNDERSTORMS...
THEY COULD TRIGGER SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANKFULL RISES ON SOME
RIVERS...MAINLY FROM THE MOHAWK RIVER NORTHWARD INTO THE
ADIRONDACKS. THE WPC QPF WAS USED FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST
WITH A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OR SO...THOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE COULD BE A FEW MORE SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT MOVES WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. SOME THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL
ONCE AGAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/JPV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...JPV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...JPV/WASULA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

136 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.AVIATION...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THIS MORNINGS AVIATION FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL KEEP AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA INTO AT
LEAST THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE
GENERAL RULE. BRIEF IFR MAY OCCUR UNDER HEAVY SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY IN THE INTERIOR AND ALONG THE GULF COAST.
THE WIND WILL RELAX SOME IN THE EVENING HOURS, THEN PICK UP AGAIN
IN THE MORNING.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1048 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015/

UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE
EAST. THUS BELIEVE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BE RATHER LIMITED
AGAIN TODAY...AND WITH EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING
FLOW...CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST.
THIS IS DEPICTED BY THE HRRR AND ILLUSTRATED WELL IN THE ONGOING
FORECAST. NO FURTHER UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 80 87 78 88 / 10 10 10 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 79 87 79 87 / 10 20 20 30
MIAMI 79 88 78 88 / 20 20 20 30
NAPLES 76 89 75 90 / 20 40 30 50

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...13/SI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

137 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1117 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

WK CDFNT EXTENDS ACROSS SW MI/NE IL THIS AFTN. A LINE OF TSTMS HAS
FORMED ALONG PRE-FRONTAL TROF OVER NE INDIANA AND NW OHIO AND
MOVED THROUGH FWA BTWN 16-17Z. MAY BE SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION
AT FWA FOR TSTMS TO REDEVELOP ALONG CDFNT AS IT SAGS SE THIS AFTN
SO LEFT IN TEMPO TSRA BUT LIMITED TO JUST SHRA AT SBN. STRATUS/FOG
FAIRLY EXTENSIVE ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT AND SHOULD IMPACT SBN THIS
AFTN THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AND FWA THIS EVE THROUGH SAT
MORNING WITH MIXING PROBABLY ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO
VFR BY MIDDAY.

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JT
SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...JT

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

105 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 952 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

PORTION OF PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE ON CONVECTIVE CHANCES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

SHOULD SEE TEMPS NEAR TO JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 121800Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 105 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON CAUSING A TRAILING COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS TO
MOVE TO NEAR KLAF TONIGHT AND STALLING THERE LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE AT KIND...KHUF AND KBMG OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. WENT WITH PREDOMINATE CEILINGS AROUND 4 THOUSAND FEET
THROUGH TONIGHT AND SCATTERED CU WITH BROKEN MID CLOUDS SATURDAY
MORNING ON. VISIBILITIES COULD BE BRIEFLY 1 TO 2 MILES IN
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT OTHERWISE VFR.

KLAF MAY SEE PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN DIMINISH LATE
TONIGHT. ONLY EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20 T0 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS MOST OTHER
PERIODS AND MAY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES AT KLAF TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/JH
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

244 PM MDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT FRI JUN 12 2015

LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE DATA SHOW A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA...WITH A CLOUDY SKY. RADAR
INDICATED A BAND OF LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE RAINFALL CONTINUING
NORTHWARD OVER THE NORTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES WITH A SMALL AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO AT THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH.

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON ANTICIPATE THE BAND OF RAINFALL TO
CONTINUE MOVING NORTH. NOTICED THE BAND HAS BEGUN TO MOVE FASTER
OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO. AS SUCH...MAY BE HANGING ONTO IT A BIT
TOO LONG IN THE FORECAST...BUT HAVE THE BAND TRANSLATING NORTHWARD
ACCORDING TO THE RAP 500MB WINDS WHICH SHOULD BE REPRESENTATIVE.
THE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS ARE TRYING TO BREAK SOME AHEAD OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. IF CLOUDS REMAIN MOSTLY UNBROKEN THIS WILL AFFECT
THE LONGEVITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS GOING INTO THE EVENING.

FOR EVENING THE BAND OF RAINFALL SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE AREA BEFORE
MID EVENING. MEANWHILE THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN SOME AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES AND THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE STABLE. SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS AS THE AXIS MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA. DESPITE THE LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AND DECENT
LIFT THE MODELS WERE NOT TOO CONVINCED RAIN WOULD DEVELOP.

WITH THIS IN MIND WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL CHANCES OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS BUT KEEP THEM BELOW 40 PERCENT.

AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT TAKING MOST OF ANY LINGERING RAINFALL WITH IT. THE
AREA SHOULD BE RAIN FREE BEFORE SUNRISE. BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS THE SKY WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR. THIS MAY ALLOW SOME FOG TO
DEVELOP. HOWEVER VISIBILITY FIELDS WERE NOT SUGGESTING FOG WOULD
DEVELOP SO WILL LEAVE FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST AND A SOUNDING AT YUMA
INDICATED FAIRLY DRY LOW LEVELS.

SATURDAY WILL BE DRY FOR MOST OF THE DAY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EAST OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE WARM AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST AS THE COOLER AIR ACCOMPANIES THE TROUGH
EASTWARD. DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST BRINGING WITH IT ANOTHER ROUND
OF ISOLATED STORMS TO THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA. THERE LOOKS
TO BE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SURFACE TROUGH SEPARATING THE WARMER AIR
OVER THE TR-STATE AREA BEHIND THE TROUGH FROM THE COOLER AIR EAST
OF THE AREA UNDER THE TROUGH. THIS MAY HELP PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
STORM INITIATION DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 PM MDT FRI JUN 12 2015

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...LATEST MODELS RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AT
500/700MB...AND STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST/
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS REGION...BEING STUCK IN BETWEEN THESE TWO RIDGES WILL HAVE AN
INVERTED TROUGH SET UP OVER THE AREA. FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE
WEEKEND ON THRU NEXT WEEK...THIS IS GOING TO GIVE THE ENTIRE TRI
STATE REGION THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...FURTHER
ENHANCED BY SEVERAL SHORTWAVES THAT MOVE THRU THE ZONAL FLOW TO OUR
NORTH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
REGION NEXT WEEK...WILL ALSO HELP TO ENHANCE ANY PRECIP CHANCES AS A
SURFACE FRONT THAT DEVELOPS IN TANDEM WITH THE INVERTED
TROUGH/SHORTWAVE COMBO. THE FRONT WILL END UP BECOMING STATIONARY
OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY.

TEMPS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD COULD VARY GREATLY DEPENDING ON THE
AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS FROM EXPECTED PRECIP...BUT OVERALL UPWARD
TREND IS EXPECTED AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SW WILL PROVIDE WNW DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY MIDWEEK ONWARD
GIVING THE AREA 850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM +20C TO +26C. LOOKING FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S SUNDAY INTO
TUESDAY...AND MID 80S TO MID 90S WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...WARMEST AT
END OF THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S THRU THE
MID 60S. EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION WILL BE CLOSEST TO MORE UNSTABLE
AIR FROM THE SE...SO CHANCES FOR ANY POTENTIAL SEVERE WILL BE
FOCUSED MORE SO THERE.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1056 AM MDT FRI JUN 12 2015

IFR TO VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 18Z TAFS. KGLD CURRENTLY
HAS ONLY A FEW CLOUDS AT IFR LEVEL...HOWEVER KITR HAS A BROKEN
DECK AT 800 FT. LOOKS LIKE THIS IS TIED TO THE RAINFALL WHICH IS
MOVING EAST TOWARD KGLD...SO WILL HAVE A TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR FOR
AN HOUR. AFTER THAT THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD RAISE ABOVE IFR. THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING THE MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL SHOULD BE SOUTHWEST
OF KGLD SO WILL LEAVE RAIN OUT OF THE TAF. FOR KMCK BAND OF LIGHT
RAINFALL MOVING NORTHWARD SHOULD DISSIPATE AS IT APPROACHES THE
SITE. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR KMCK.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...JTL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TOPEKA KS

113 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

Any storms that develop during the late afternoons may be
marginally severe. While little to no inhibition maximizes sfc CAPE
between 1500 and 2000 J/KG, effective shear stays on the low side
near 20 KTS, mitigating stronger, rotating updrafts from forming.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 104 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

This afternoon, remnants of the overnight MCV have been moving near
or over the TAF sites along with associated lower clouds bringing
MVFR conditions. The trend with this will be to come to an end and
lift out of the area to the North and northeast in general.
Improvements to the CIGs should continue into the afternoon. Still
have MVFR in the TAFs, but we could be in and out at times varying
from MVFR to VFR conditions. The last half of the TAF period will
see the potential for some isolated thunder but mainly rain
likely. Timing is a bit lower on the confidence at this point
since the concern doesn`t really start to come into play until we
get some more influence from the LLJ overnight and an activated
frontal zone back into the area. Right now, went with the 9z time
frame for KMHK and 10z time frame for KTOP/KFOE.

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Drake

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...RETRANSMITTED

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

343 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.SHORT TERM... THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES THE SFC FRONT ACROSS THE NRN
DETROIT SUBURBS. THE MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS HOWEVER DEVELOPED SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE DTX FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THUS ANY
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL HAVE ENDED.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH...REACHING THE OHIO BORDER THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO LOWER MI FROM
THE NORTH. A REGION OF GOOD MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS NOW EXPANDING
ACROSS NRN MI IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY MORNING SHORT WAVE /NOW
ROLLING EAST OF GEORGAIN BAY/. MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL BE
SUSTAINED ACROSS NRN/CNTRL MI INTO THE NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE MID
LEVEL RIDGE TRAVERSES THIS REGION. THIS WILL FORCE THE MID
TROPOSPHERIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED MOIST AXIS INTO THE SRN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE EVENING. SOME
RESIDUAL FRONTAL FORCING WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A PERSISTENT
UPPER JET MAX OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES WILL SUPPORT SOME ISOLD/SCT
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE EAST OF LOWER MI
OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING THE MID LEVEL THETA E PLUME TO NUDGE BACK
NORTHWARD TOWARD DAYBREAK SAT...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTH LATE.

THERE HAS BEEN A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF POST FRONTAL STRATUS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE
SHALLOW POST FRONTAL AIRMASS EXPANDS TO THE SOUTH THIS
EVENING...THIS LOW STRATUS DECK /WITH SOME POCKETS OF DRIZZLE/ WILL
PUSH SOUTH AS WELL. BOTH THE NAM AND RAP SUGGEST THESE CLOUDS MIXING
OUT ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB LATER THIS EVENING...WHICH
WOULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THESE LOCALS
OVERNIGHT. OBSERVATIONS ACROSS NRN LOWER MI SUGGESTS A SLOWER PUSH
OF DRY AIR THAN SHOWN BY MODEL SOLUTIONS. THIS AND GIVEN THE
EXPECTED DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION...LOW CLOUDS SEEM MORE
LIKELY TO HOLD THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT. THIS WILL
SUPPORT LEANING TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE
/MID 50S NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTH/.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY

WEEKEND FORECAST STILL CARRIES A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AS WE
CONTINUE TO DEAL WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATING OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. SATURDAY DOES LOOK QUIETER IN A RELATIVE SENSE
HOWEVER...AS THE SURFACE FRONT STARTS THE DAY JUST SOUTH OF THE
MICHIGAN/OHIO BORDER AND RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SLIDE INTO
THE AREA...STRENGTHENING A CAP OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. UNCERTAINTY
LIES WITH A SHIFT IN THE MODELS WITH THE 12Z CYCLE...LIFTING THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK NORTHWARD FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS
LOOKS TO BE DUE TO MODELS GIVING THE UPPER WAVE NOW OVER
NEBRASKA/OKLAHOMA MORE CREDIT...AND THE SHORTWAVE DOES LOOK FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL TREND THE
FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION...BUT GIVE PREFERENCE TO THE SLOWER MODEL
SOLUTIONS DUE IN PART TO THE COLDER LAKE WATERS AND ALSO DUE TO
RECENT TRENDS IN THE MODELS TO PULL THIS FRONT TOO FAR NORTH TOO
QUICKLY THE PAST FEW DAYS.

AS THE WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES...IT WILL PULL
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF THE MICHIGAN BORDER
BACK THROUGH THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT. THIS MAY TRIGGER
SHOWERS/TSTORMS AS THIS OCCURS...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED BY
THE STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE SATURDAY. ONLY HAVE GOOD
CONFIDENCE WITH THE ELEVATED PORTIONS OF THE FRONT MAKING IT UP HERE
BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. SURFACE
FRONT MAY CLIP LENAWEE COUNTY HOWEVER...ALLOWING SOME SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION...BUT INSTABILITY STILL DOESN`T LOOK TO BUILD TOO
HIGH...ESPECIALLY WITH EARLY DAY CLOUDS.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD LIFT INTO AT LEAST CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AS LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WAVE INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN
POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE DAY...PLACING
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN IN THE WARM SECTOR. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ARE ALREADY WELL-ESTABLISHED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 AND TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW/MID 80S. SHOWER/TSTORM CHANCES LOOK PRETTY GOOD SATURDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...AND DID CONTINUE WITH HIGHER
CHANCES...THOUGH KEPT THEM LIMITED BELOW LIKELY DUE TO RECENT MODEL
SHIFTS. WILL NEED A TRIGGER TO FIRE OFF CONVECTION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...POTENTIALLY LOOKING TO MCV`S/DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARIES FROM UPSTREAM/EARLIER CONVECTION...LAKE
BREEZES...AND THEN THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT TOWARDS EVENING.
WARM TEMPS/HIGH DEWPOINTS LOOK TO YIELD SB CAPE VALUES AROUND 1500
J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW STRONGER
UPDRAFTS. WIND PROFILE IS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE...WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW UNDER 30 KNOTS THROUGH ABOUT 600MB. STILL...STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES MAY HELP PROMOTE A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN CLOSER TO 2.0
INCHES...AND STORM MOTION SLOWS.

EXTENDED FORECAST...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...REMAINS MORE ON THE
ACTIVE SIDE AS THE REGION REMAINS FASTENED IN ZONAL FLOW. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR VARIOUS SHORTWAVES TO TRANSVERSE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK. CONSISTENT TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO BE IN PLAY AS HIGHS RANGE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
DEGREES...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S.

.MARINE...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAGINAW BAY THIS
EVENING AS WINDS REMAIN NORTHEAST AT AROUND 20 KNOTS. SURFACE
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS AND LOWER WAVE
HEIGHTS ON SATURDAY BEFORE AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ALLOWS FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH SATURDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH
OF THE AREA...WITH JUST A FEW STORMS EXPECTED OVER LAKE ST CLAIR AND
WESTERN LAKE ERIE. A WARM FRONT LIFTING BACK THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL THEN BRING AN INCREASE IN
COVERAGE...WITH THE THREAT FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS ON SUNDAY.

.AVIATION...ISSUED 102 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY HAS STRUGGLED TO LIFT INTO SE MI...THEREFORE
THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON IS NOW QUITE LOW. A
SHALLOW COLD LAYER OF AIR HAS UNDERCUT THE FAIRLY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE...LEADING TO AN EXPANDING REGION OF LOW MOISTURE BECOMING
TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION. THE NET RESULT IS A AN AREA OF IFR
STRATUS. THESE LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST WELL INTO THE
EVENING IF NOT THROUGH THE ENTIRE NIGHT AS THE CONTINUE TO EXPAND
TOWARD THE SOUTH AND EAST. MODEL SOLUTIONS TRY TO ERODE THESE CLOUDS
LATER THIS EVENING. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR...THERE WOULD BE A RISK
FOR SOME DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING IN LIGHT
OF THE AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WITH A PERSISTENT NE FLOW OFF LAKE
HURON SUSTAINING A DEEP LOW LEVEL INVERSION...IT SEEMS MORE LIKELY
THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST INTO SAT MORNING. THIS WILL SUPPORT
REFRAINING FROM THE MENTION OF DENSE FOG IN THE TERMINALS ATTM.

FOR DTW...THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN MORE WIDESPREAD FROM KTOL SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER METRO DETROIT
MAY SUPPORT A BRIEF ELEVATED STORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
OTHERWISE...THE CHANCES ARE NOW APPEARING QUITE LOW.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

* HIGH IN CEILINGS DROPPING BELOW 5000 FT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ421-422.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SC
LONG TERM....HLO/SS
MARINE.......HLO
AVIATION.....SC

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

155 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

AN ACTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION TO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL WAVER SOUTH AND NORTH OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK ALONG IT. THIS FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SO WE WILL HAVE NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR RAIN
OVER THE COMING DAYS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY. THERE
IS ALSO A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. THE
THREAT FOR TODAY IS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KALAMAZOO TO LANSING.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT
FRI JUN 12 2015

WE DO SEE A LIKELY DRY PERIOD FOR THE DAY ON TUE. WE WILL SEE SHORT
WAVE RIDGING BUILD IN BY TUE MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE MON WAVE AND
AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF THE LAST 12-18 HOURS HAS RESULTED IN A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER AND WILL LIKELY LEAD TO CONTINUED LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. IN FACT...EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WITH CEILINGS BELOW
1000FT. IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS WILL LIKELY NOT TAKE PLACE UNTIL AT
LEAST SATURDAY MIDDAY...IF NOT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FOG WILL LIKELY
BE LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF 3-5SM OR MVFR. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHEASTERLY AS WE HEAD INTO THIS EVENING AND EAST TONIGHT. SPEEDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF 5-10 KNOTS.

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE SHORT TERM WILL KEEP WAVES ON THE LOW SIDE AND
ALSO LIMIT THE FOG POTENTIAL IN THE NEARSHORE AREA.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1238 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITH UNDER A HALF INCH OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE.
RIVER LEVELS ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN ARE MOVING UP... BUT
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL. RIVERS WILL RUN HIGHER THAN
NORMAL HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK... WHEN ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED AND MINOR RIVER FLOODING MAY OCCUR ACROSS
THE AREA. THE SOUTH OF MICHIGAN HAS NOT RECEIVED MUCH RAIN AND RIVER
LEVELS REMAIN STEADY.

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...NJJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

149 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. WITH LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT...BELIEVE SHALLOW GROUND FOG WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AFFECTING KCMX/KSAW. LEFT KIWD OUT AT THIS
POINT...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS LOOK TO BE STRONG ENOUGH OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST TO INCREASE MIXING AND LIMIT FOG. A DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD...LEADING TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
JUST AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 845 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ249>251-
266-267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...KC/SRF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

1238 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

AN ACTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION TO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL WAVER SOUTH AND NORTH OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK ALONG IT. THIS FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SO WE WILL HAVE NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR RAIN
OVER THE COMING DAYS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY. THERE
IS ALSO A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. THE
THREAT FOR TODAY IS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KALAMAZOO TO LANSING.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

WE DO SEE A LIKELY DRY PERIOD FOR THE DAY ON TUE. WE WILL SEE SHORT
WAVE RIDGING BUILD IN BY TUE MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE MON WAVE AND
AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 753 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE SHORT TERM WILL KEEP WAVES ON THE LOW SIDE AND
ALSO LIMIT THE FOG POTENTIAL IN THE NEARSHORE AREA.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1238 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...63

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

352 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

SFC HIGH THAT WAS CENTERED ACROSS NE MN THIS AFTN HAS SCOURED OUT
THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS MOST OF MN...WITH THE EXCEPTION
ALONG THE IOWA BORDER WHERE LOW CLDS HAVE HELD THRU THE DAY.
REGIONAL RADAR AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A DISTURBANCE
MOVING N/NE ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS...AND INTO SE NEBRASKA WHICH WILL
AFFECT THE SOUTHEASTERN 1/4 OF MPX CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND THRU
SATURDAY MORNING. INITIALLY...THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL
MOISTEN UP ONCE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THERE MAYBE
A PERIOD OF VIRGA AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES NE INTO FAR SC/SE MN
AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT IT SHOULD EVENTUALLY MOISTEN UP. MOST OF THE
CAMS HI-RES REFLECTIVITY SIMS PLACE A BAND OF -SHRA DEVELOPING
ACROSS IOWA THIS EVENING...AND MOVING IT INTO A FAIRLY BROAD BUT
CONCENTRATED AREA FROM NEAR ALBERT LEA...NORTHEAST TOWARD RED WIND
AND EAU CLAIRE BY MID/LATE SATURDAY MORNING. BASED ON SEVERAL OF THE
CAMS SOLUTIONS AND THE LATEST RAP HAVING A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
DISTURBANCE ACROSS KANSAS...WILL INCREASE POPS IN MPX FAR SE CWA BY
12Z...AND MOVING IT INTO WC WI BY MID/LATE MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BE FAIRLY FAST...SO MOST OF THE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE OUT OF WC WI BY 3 PM. TEMPS WILL REFLECT THE HIGHER PROBABILITY
OF CLDS/SHRA IN WC WI WHERE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S.
ELSEWHERE...MID TO UPPER 70S WILL BE LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD TWO AREAS OF PRECIP WILL BE SPLITTING THE
BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FIRST WILL BE AND AREA OF SOUTHWEST
FLOW WITH EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMA AND CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN IA
AND WESTERN WI. THE SECOND IS A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION. THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS COLD FRONT IS WEAK...SO NOT
ANTICIPATING MUCH PRECIPITATION...AND HAVE LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY.
GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF CENTRAL MN WAS
DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LOOKING AHEAD...THE SPLIT FLOW THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
CONUS FOR MOST OF THE EARLY SUMMER LOOKS TO BECOME MORE PHASED AS
THE SUBTROPICAL JET SHIFTS NORTHWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW HEAT TO BUILD
OVER THE US...AND BRING THE STORM TRACK OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS
PATTERN WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AND IN TURN
MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL HEADING INTO THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.

FOR NOW NOT PINNING ANY RISK THRESHOLD OVER A PARTICULAR AREA FOR A
PARTICULAR TIME PERIOD...BUT JUST SPEAKING TO THE FACT THAT EITHER
INSTABILITY...OR SHEAR HAS BEEN LACKING FOR MOST OF THIS QUIET
SEVERE WEATHER SEASON. CONTINUED WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE SINCE THERE
WAS NOT A FORECAST PERIOD THAT PARTICULARLY STOOD OUT AS
UNUSUAL...AND BLENDED GUIDANCE PERFORMS BEST UNDER THESE REGIMES.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER IS THE MAIN AVIATION
CONCERNS AFT 6Z TONIGHT AS MEAN LAYER FLOW BLW 5K BECOMES SE/S.
INITIALLY...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE VERY DRY SO VFR CONDS
WILL CONTINUE THRU 6Z WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. AFT 6Z AS WINDS SHIFT
TO THE SE...CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE MVFR
CIGS AT KRWF BY 9Z...AND IN KEAU BY 12Z. -SHRA WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING FOR MAINLY KEAU.

KMSP...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDS THRU 6-12Z...WITH CONFIDENCE
INCREASING THAT MVFR CIGS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD S/SE OF THE
AIRPORT SATURDAY MORNING ALONG WITH -SHRA. WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR
CIGS DURING THIS TAF PERIOD...WITH VCSH AFT 18Z SATURDAY. WINDS
WILL HOLD FROM THE EAST THIS AFTN...THEN MORE SE TONIGHT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SUN...CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WINDS E/ENE 5-10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS NNW 10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NE 5 KTS.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...JLT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON MS

448 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO IS
HELPING TO CHANNEL A DEEP MOIST AIRMASS (PRECIPITABLE WATER ~ TWO
INCHES) NORTHWARD INTO THE ARKLAMISS REGION. WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND SUBSTANTIAL LOW/MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO
ORGANIZE SHOWERS/TSTMS ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE HAS BEEN CONSIDERABLE TODAY. POOR LAPSE RATES
HAVE KEPT THE ACTIVITY MOSTLY BELOW STRONG/SEVERE LIMITS...BUT AT
LEAST ONE STORM IN RICHLAND PARISH LIKELY BECAME SEVERE AS A RESULT
OF MERGING STORMS. OTHERWISE...STORMS THAT ORIENT ALONG WEST TO EAST
BOUNDARIES HAVE BEEN FAVORABLE FOR 30 TO 40 MPH WIND GUSTS AND THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE AS WE GO INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. PER LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE...CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH
QUICKLY WITH SUNSET.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT GREATER
INSTABILITY/MOISTURE TO BECOME FIXED OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
ARKLAMISS AS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE INTENSIFIES AND EXPANDS
WESTWARD INTO EASTERN MS. LAPSE RATES WILL STILL BE RATHER
POOR AND NON-SUPPORTIVE OF MUCH SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL...BUT SIMILAR
LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL SUPPORT
STORM ORGANIZATION ALONG BOUNDARIES RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE
RAINFALL COVERAGE...MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR. EXPECT
THE ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH QUICKLY SATURDAY EVENING. /EC/

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AS WE GO INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS
WILL ALLOW INFLOW OF GULF MOISTURE OVER MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...WHERE PWATS WILL MAX OUT TO AROUND 2.30 INCHES THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER MODELS TRY TO SHOW THAT WE MAY GET CUT OFF HEAVY
RAINFALL WISE FROM THE COASTAL AREAS. STILL WILL BE LOOKING AT SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY EFFICIENT RAIN POTENTIAL FROM SLOW MOVING STORMS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT UPPER RIDGING FROM THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL
BRING IN DRIER AIR FROM THE EAST...WHICH WILL PUSH THE HIGHER PWATS
WEST OF THE REGION UNTIL THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE WHEN A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. MODELS HAVE SOME TIMING
AND DEPTH ISSUES WITH THE SHORT WAVE COMING FROM THE WEST. THE
MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE SOME CHANCES OF MOSTLY DIURNAL CONVECTION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL SHOWS SOME UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY
COMING FROM THE PLAINS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WHICH MAY BRING
A FEW STRONG STORMS...BUT THATS TOO FAR OUT FOR ANY HWO POTENTIAL AT
THIS TIME. OTHERWISE EXPECT WARM DAYS AND MUGGY NIGHTS WITH SEASONAL
HIGHS AND LOWS. ALSO UPPED HIGHS IN THE EAST AROUND 1 DEGREE FOR NEXT
WEEK TO COMPENSATE FOR THE BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST US./17/

.AVIATION...WITH CLOUDS AND CONVECTION OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...A MIX OF VFR TO IFR FLIGHT STATUSES ARE BEING OBSERVED.
UNTIL CONVECTION DISSIPATES LATER THIS EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING
BEGINS TO WANE...SUCH VARYING FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
OBSERVED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
SOME STORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING COULD PRODUCE SOME WIND GUSTS
UPWARDS OF 25-30 KNOTS. OVERALL THOUGH...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE TO AROUND 5 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH HEADING INTO TONIGHT. A MIX
OF VFR/MVFR CATEGORIES WILL SEEN OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
MORNING DUE TO VARYING CEILING HEIGHTS. /19/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 71 87 73 88 / 40 52 20 41
MERIDIAN 69 89 71 89 / 20 43 16 28
VICKSBURG 72 88 73 88 / 54 52 24 59
HATTIESBURG 72 88 73 89 / 20 52 26 45
NATCHEZ 73 86 72 87 / 44 61 26 60
GREENVILLE 73 88 72 88 / 45 48 28 54
GREENWOOD 72 88 72 89 / 44 44 25 36

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

EC/17/19/

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO

401 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 400 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

The heavy rain threat will be the main forecast challenge
through the weekend driven by the combination of a surface boundary
in the vicinity and a series of upper level waves rotating through a slow
moving upper trough. Main surface boundary currently draped across
far southern part of forecast area. Some breaks in the cloud cover
have allowed temperatures to warm into the middle 80s along the
boundary while in northwest Missouri temperatures have struggled to
get out of the 60s. The front is providing a focal point for scattered
convection driven by diurnal heating. This activity should diminish
over the forecast area later this evening.

Strengthen LLJ tonight will focus MCS initiation over southern Kansas
and northern Oklahoma tonight. Convective system forecast by high
resolution short term models to move into forecast area after
midnight. During the day on Saturday the surface boundary should work
further north. The highest threat for heavy rainfall appears to be on
Saturday night/Sunday as LLJ once again strengthens after sunset.
This time however the jet is a bit stronger and focused closer to the
forecast area.

Depending on how convection evolves Saturday Night/Sunday morning the
boundary will likely still be in or around the forecast area during
the day Sunday. Convection will remain possible through the day
Sunday with a similar MCS scenario possible on Sunday night.

After coordination with surrounding offices have decided to hold off
on flash flood watch for now. Best threat for heavy rain appears to
be late in the weekend and there are still some questions regarding
timing and location of heavy rain.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 400 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

Thunderstorm chances will continue early next week as the surface
boundary lingers across central MO and a series of weak shortwave
troughs advance out into the Plains, reinforcing precipitation
chances. Currently, the heaviest rainfall looks like it will focus
mainly south of I-70 given the position of the front, but changes
are definitely possible depending on how convection the previous
days pans out. Severe weather chances will be marginal each day with
the boundary in the area serving as a focus for convection and
adequate instability for storms, but weak shear and complications
from cloud cover/morning convection. Widespread precipitation will
also likely hold high temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s most
days, although spikes in temperature are possible if sufficient
clearing occurs any of the days.

Precipitation chances should taper off but not end altogether as
upper level flow flattens and gradually turns more to the northwest,
keeping many of the upper-level disturbances north of the forecast
area. However, the boundary may not completely shift out of the
region, and storm chances will be non-zero beyond the end of the
period.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

On-going low cloud cover and timing for overnight convection are the
main forecast concerns for this TAF period. Although cloud debris
and associated MCV from early morning convection will keep skies
cloudy the HRRR model ontinues to advertise erosion of low cloud deck
this afternoon. This seems reasonable given time of year and
satellite/METAR trends. Surface boundary has pushed to the south of
the forecast area. This boundary should act as the focus for
afternoon convection in southern and eastern Missouri. More organized
thunderstorm activity is expected to develop overnight over Kansas as
the LLJ strengthens. This activity could make it into the TAF sites
in the 07z-09z time range.

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Mitchell
LONG TERM...Laflin
AVIATION...Mitchell

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO

1230 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1119 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

Forecast update to account for current radar and cloud trends.
Precipitation from overnight MCS across KS struggled to make it into
eastern Kansas and western Missouri as it moved into more stable air. Surface
boundary has pushed southward and cleared the majority of the
forecast area. Low cloud shield north of the boundary combined with
cloud debris from morning MCS will likely persist into much of the
afternoon. With boundary nearby and MCV still spinning over KS cannot rule
out chance for showers and thunderstorms especially over southern
part of forecast area, however the majority of the area should remain
dry this afternoon.

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 329 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

Cold front will continue to push into central and northeast Missouri
through the morning with generally dry conditions moving in behind it
for a few hours. However, a large convective complex over southwest
KS will likely spread precipitation back into eastern KS and western
MO later this morning albeit in a weakening form. Primary wave
associated with this activity will weaken and push into northeast KS
later today which could spark a few showers and storms along the
stalling boundary over east central KS and central MO. This boundary
will slowly lift back north through the afternoon, bringing the
threat for scattered showers and storms into areas near and a bit
north of I-70 later this afternoon and this evening. None of this
activity looks to be particularly heavy or widespread, at least
through early evening.

More widespread rain and thunderstorms could develop later this
evening and overnight when a low-level jet will nose into the region
and interact with the slowly retreating warm front. Some of this
activity could produce a corridor of heavy rain particularly across
areas near or just south of the KC metro.

A continuous stream of upper-level impulses combined with
anomalously high moisture content will bring several additional
rounds of rain and storms through the area Saturday, Sunday and
Monday. Several of these storms could produce additional heavy
rainfall particularly Saturday night when a resurgence of the low-
level jet will bring a focused corridor of forcing and deep moisture
into eastern KS and western MO. May need to consider a flash flood
watch for tonight and particularly for Saturday night once the
location of the heaviest rain threat can be better determined.

Rain chances will continue into the middle of the week with a steady
stream of deep moisture off the Gulf. With these repeated rounds of
storms, total rainfall amounts over the next 7 days could easily
exceed 2 or 3 inches for much of the area.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Mitchell
DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Mitchell

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ELKO NV

311 PM PDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST TODAY...RESULTING GENERALLY MILD AND MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA...WHILE ISOLATED POCKETS OF
CONVECTION LINGER OVER CENTRAL NEVADA. EXPECT A WARMING TREND WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN FEATURES
THE RIDGE AXIS DIRECTLY OVER THE LKN CWA...WITH THE 582 DAM EAST OF
WENDOVER. THE HRRR CLINGS ONTO CONVECTION THIS EVENING SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50...BUT THE OVERALL DYNAMICS ARE NOT THERE FOR ORGANIZED
TSRA IN THE BOUNDARIES OF THE LKN CWA. FOR TOMORROW ...WENT FOR A
HIGH OF 90F FOR WINNEMUCCA AND 87F IN ELKO...NORMS...AKA MEAN MAX
TEMP...FOR WMC AND EKO FOR JUNE 13TH 82F AND 79F. FOR
SUNDAY...PROGED A HIGH OF 89F FOR WMC AND 86F FOR EKO. WITH
WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE...ANY WAY YOU SLICE IT...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS FOR THIS WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY ALONG AND EAST OF THE NEVADA CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL
CONTINUE INTO A FEW HOURS OF SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING. WEAK
TROUGH RIPPLING THROUGH A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL RETURN THE THREAT
OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEVADA MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. FOLLOWING THIS TROUGH...HEIGHTS
INCREASE SOME WITH THE FLOW REMAINING NEARLY ZONAL FOR WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. STRONG RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST AND A RELATIVELY STRONG TROUGH ENTERING THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL SHIFT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST
WITH WARM DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. OVERALL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION...DRIER AIR OVER NORTHERN NEVADA CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH
INTO NORTHERN NYE COUNTY. CONVECTION DEVELOPING SOUTH OF NORTHERN
NYE COUNTY WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA THROUGH THIS EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS FORECAST AT ALL TERMINAL SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

.FIRE WEATHER...NO MAJOR FORECAST ISSUES ON FIRE WEATHER.

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

97/89/89

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

320 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD WILL CREATE INCREASINGLY HOT
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE COMING WEEK. HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL EXCEED 100 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND...POTENTIALLY REACHING
105 DEGREES FOR SEVERAL DAYS NEXT WEEK. SOMEWHAT COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BREAKS DOWN.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTH FROM GA HAS BEEN
ABLE TO GENERATE SOME CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE HAS
DECREASED IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO WHICH IS LIKELY DOWN TO 2 THINGS.
THE EXPANDING MID LEVEL RIDGE IS INCREASING SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
AREA AND AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE BEST PVA SHIFTS FARTHER
NORTH. ALTHOUGH UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT THERE IS STILL THE OUTSIDE
CHANCE THAT AN ISOLATED STORM COULD POSE A LOCALIZED FLOODING
THREAT. STORM MOTION APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH THAT A SINGLE STORM
SHOULD NOT BE ABLE TO PRODUCE FLOODING RAIN BUT 2 STORMS IN THE
SAME GENERAL AREA IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME COULD GIVEN
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 2 INCHES AND A WARM CLOUD DEPTH ON
THE ORDER OF 8 TO 10K FT.

THUS FAR THE SEA BREEZE HAS BEEN UNABLE TO MAKE MUCH INLAND
PROGRESS. THIS IS LIKELY DOWN TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 15 TO
20 KT IN THE 2-3K FT LAYER SEEN ON KLTX VWP. WITH NO SIGNS OF THIS
ABATING THINK THE SEA BREEZE WILL REMAIN PINNED CLOSE TO THE COAST
WITH ONLY A FLATTENED RESULTANT SEA BREEZE PUSHING NORTH AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. HOWEVER WITH SUBSIDENCE INCREASING DO NOT
EXPECT A LOT OF ACTIVITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND UP BETWEEN 4PM AND 5PM AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES MORE OR LESS OVERHEAD. POST SHORTWAVE SUBSIDENCE ALONG WITH
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE BUILDING 5H RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS THE
DEEP CONVECTION BUT LOW TOPPED CU MAY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING
BEFORE LOSS OF HEATING ALLOWS FOR PARTIAL CLEARING OF SKIES
OVERNIGHT.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVERNIGHT SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY BUT
THERE IS AN OVERALL LACK OF ANY FORCING. OTHER THAN A CHANCE
MEETING OF LINGERING OUTFLOWS THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONVECTION THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IS RATHER LOW. WILL NOT CARRY A MENTIONABLE
POP NUMBER TONIGHT BUT DO NOT PLAN ON GOING WITH ZERO EITHER.
LOWS WILL END UP ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE CLIMO...WITH READING CLOSE TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL PARK ITSELF
SQUARELY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY LEADING TO OUR
FIRST HEAT WAVE OF THE YEAR. ASIDE FROM THE TYPICAL 2-4 DEGREE
SPREAD FROM MODEL TO MODEL THERE ARE NO DISSENTING OPINIONS IN
WHAT IS TO COME.

850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR TO +19C ON SATURDAY AND TO +20C ON
SUNDAY. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED MY FORECAST TEMPS ARE
ALONG/ABOVE THE UPPER EDGE OF MOS GUIDANCE BOTH DAYS: UPPER 90S
INLAND AND 92-96 NEAR THE COAST. EVEN THE BEACHES SHOULD HAVE
HIGHS NEAR 90 WITH THE SEABREEZE NOT PROVIDING A WHOLE LOT OF
COOLING. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 WILL PRODUCE HEAT
INDEX VALUES 97-102 SATURDAY...AND 101-105 SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE MOS WITH MID 70S EXPECTED BOTH
NIGHTS. LOW TEMPS NEAR THE BEACHES MAY ONLY BRIEFLY FALL BELOW 80!

BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THE LOW AND MID LEVEL HIGH WILL SET
UP ACROSS GEORGIA. THIS WILL CREATE A WEAK NW->SE STEERING FLOW
FOR ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT CAN DEVELOP. WITH THE JET STREAM
FLOW AND ANY UPPER DISTURBANCES AND FRONTS WELL TO THE NORTH...
CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY OF 1000-1500 J/KG WILL FIND ITS ONLY
TRIGGER IN THE SEABREEZE. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROBABLY HAVE GOOD
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH IT ON SATURDAY DUE TO STRONGER
BACKGROUND WIND FIELDS. BY SUNDAY LIGHTER OVERALL WINDS MAY ALLOW
FOR BETTER INLAND MOVEMENT OF THE SEABREEZE FRONT BUT WITH LESSER
CONVERGENCE OVERALL. FORECAST POPS RANGE FROM 20-30 PERCENT NEAR
THE SEABREEZE FRONT ON SATURDAY...TO ONLY 10-20 PERCENT ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS AN UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD. IN
ADDITION...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE IN COMBINATION WITH A THERMAL
TROUGH INLAND WILL CONTINUE A LIGHT AND MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW THAT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DEWPOINTS OF RIGHT AROUND 70F EACH DAY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDEX VALUES EQUAL TO OR EXCEEDING 100F EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE PERIOD. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AT ITS PEAK OF STRENGTH DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
WIDESPREAD HEAT INDEX VALUES OF UP AROUND 105F ARE A GOOD
POSSIBILITY THEN. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE NEXT HOTTEST DAY...JUST
SLIGHT LOWER IN HEAT INDEX VALUES THAN TUESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE
BECOMES MORE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY SO WE WILL SEE SOME
MODEST IMPROVEMENT THEN...BUT THAT IS ONLY ON A RELATIVE BASIS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL HELP SUPPRESS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...BUT WITH
SUCH STRONG SURFACE HEATING WE CAN EXPECT ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...THE HRRR MODEL CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SCATTERED
CONVECTION...MAINLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. GIVE THE
CURRENT CU FIELD...THINK THIS IS A GOOD BET. COVERAGE ONLY WARRANTS
A VCSH AT THIS TIME...BUT GIVEN THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER...ANY
SHOWER COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES BRIEFLY BELOW TWO MILES. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST FLOW THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL END BY
EARLY EVENING...WITH LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY...CONTINUED SUMMER PATTERN WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION
EXPECTED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY AND
MAINLY VFR.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GRADIENT THIS AFTERNOON WILL MAINTAIN WINDS ON
THE HIGH END OF THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.
GRADIENT BECOMES A LITTLE MORE DEFINED THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...BUMPING SPEEDS TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH AN OCCASIONAL
HIGHER GUST. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT TODAY WILL RUN A SOLID 3 FT OVERNIGHT
WITH POTENTIAL FOR 4 FT ACROSS WATERS OPEN TO EXTENDED SOUTHWEST
FETCH.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...HOT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES THIS WEEKEND. MARINERS WILL ENJOY SOME OF
THE COOLEST WEATHER IN THE AREA WITH AIR TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM 80-85 THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE DETERMINED
LARGELY BY DIURNAL/SEABREEZE EFFECTS: WEST WINDS SUNDAY WILL BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT THEN VEERING
WESTERLY AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY WILL SEE A SIMILAR
PATTERN...BUT WITH LIGHTER OVERALL WINDS THE SEABREEZE SHOULD BACK
WIND DIRECTIONS AROUND TO THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
SHOULD RANGE FROM 2-3 FEET THIS WEEKEND EXCEPT FOR SOME 4-FOOTERS
POSSIBLE AWAY FROM SHORE SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IN
COMBINATION WITH A THERMAL TROUGH INLAND WILL MAKE FOR FAIRLY BENIGN
AND VERY UNIFORM CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXPECT SW WINDS IN TO 10 KT RANGE WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS NEAR SHORE WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND
WILL GUST UP INTO THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING AS THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION DEVELOPS. SEAS NEAR SHORE WILL
LIKEWISE BECOME MORE CHOPPY DURING THOSE TIMES. GREATEST THREAT
THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT MANAGE TO
DEVELOP.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...REK
AVIATION...DL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

249 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT AND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL
CREATE WARMING TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED CONVECTION TODAY. VERY
HOT TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD EXCEED 100 DEGREES EACH
AFTERNOON. SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP LATE NEXT
WEEK.

MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND UP BETWEEN 4PM AND 5PM AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES MORE OR LESS OVERHEAD. POST SHORTWAVE SUBSIDENCE ALONG WITH
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE BUILDING 5H RIDGE WILL SUPRESS THE
DEEP CONVECTION BUT LOW TOPPED CU MAY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING
BEFORE LOSS OF HEATING ALLOWS FOR PARTIAL CLEARING OF SKIES
OVERNIGHT.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...

DANGEROUS HEAT THIS WEEKEND...

LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL DO LITTLE TO EASE THE HEAT...AND REAL MID-
SUMMER HUMID MINS IN THE MID TO UPR 70S ARE FORECAST BOTH NIGHTS.

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...THE HRRR MODEL CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SCATTERED
CONVECTION...MAINLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. GIVE THE
CURRENT CU FIELD...THINK THIS IS A GOOD BET. COVERAGE ONLY WARRANTS
A VCSH AT THIS TIME...BUT GIVEN THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER...ANY
SHOWER COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES BRIEFLY BELOW TWO MILES. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST FLOW THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL END BY
EARLY EVENING...WITH LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY...CONTINUED SUMMER PATTERN WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION
EXPECTED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY AND
MAINLY VFR.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

206 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTH FROM GA HAS BEEN ABLE
TO GENERATE SOME CONVECTION DURING THE PAST HOUR. COVERAGE IS A
BIT MORE THAN WAS EXPECTED...BUT GIVEN THE LATEST SURFACE TEMPS
AND AMOUNT OF DEEP MOISTURE THIS IS NOT ALL THAT SURPRISING.
ALTHOUGH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE CAN BE SEEN SLOWLY EXPANDING IN WATER
VAPOR IT HAS SO FAR BEEN UNABLE TO TOTALLY SUPRESS THE CONVECTION.
CURRENT ACTIVITY AROUND THE NC/SC BORDER WILL SPREAD NORTH AND
EAST AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
THINK THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BETWEEN 4PM AND
6PM AS THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVES AND THE PVA SHIFTS OFFSHORE. POST
SHORTWAVE SUBSIDENCE ALONG WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE
BUILDING 5H RIDGE WILL SUPRESS THE DEEP CONVECTION BUT LOW TOPPED
CU ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO THE EVENING BEFORE LOSS OF HEATING
ALLOWS FOR PARTIAL CLEARING OVER SKIES OVERNIGHT.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVERNIGHT SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY BUT
THERE IS AN OVERALL LACK OF ANY FORCING. OTHER THAN A CHANCE
MEETING OF LINGERING OUTFLOWS THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONVECTION THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IS RATHER LOW. WILL NOT CARRY A MENTIONABLE
POP NUMBER TONGIHT BUT DO NOT PLAN ON GOING WITH ZERO EITHER. LOWS
WILL END UP ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE CLIMO...WITH READING CLOSE TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...

DANGEROUS HEAT THIS WEEKEND...

LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL DO LITTLE TO EASE THE HEAT...AND REAL MID-
SUMMER HUMID MINS IN THE MID TO UPR 70S ARE FORECAST BOTH NIGHTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY AND
MAINLY VFR.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC

1244 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PROLONGED HEAT WAVE IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHILE A THERMAL TROF OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF NC THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE
STATE SUNDAY NIGHT THEN DISSIPATE ON MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT
WILL DROP INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1245 PM FRI...MADE A FEW PRECIP ADJUSTMENTS ALONG THE SRN
COASTAL AREAS TO INCLUDE LOW POPS WITH CONVECTION MOVING NE ALONG
THE CARTERET COUNTY COAST EARLY THIS AFTN. 4KM WRF AND HRRR MODELS
INDICATE A GOOD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AWAY FROM THE COAST
STARTING EARLY THIS AFTN AND CONTG THROUGH THE AFTN THEN WANING
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HTG THIS EVE. RADAR STARTING TO PICK UP ON
SOME WEAK RETURNS ALONG THE SEASBREEZE IN THE SWRN AREAS. EVEN
WITH MDT INSTABILITY AND AMPLE AMS MSTR...PW VALUES ARND 1.75
INCHES...SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK SO SVR TSRA ARE NOT
EXPECTED THIS AFTN BUT THERE COULD BE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.

THE SEA BREEZE FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH E NC FROM THE SW TO PRODUCE SCT
THUNDERSTORMS. CONT 30-50 POPS INLAND TO 10-20 PERCENT ON THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 90
INLAND TO MID 80S BEACHES.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM FRI...A LINGERING THUNDERSHOWER POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING BEFORE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND EXITING WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY END ANY THREAT OF PRECIP BY MIDNIGHT. ANOTHER WARM AND
MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 115 AM FRI...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. RIDGE ALOFT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WITH ZONAL FLOW OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. GOOD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AHEAD OF APPROACHING BOUNDARY WILL
BRING AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 90S AWAY FROM THE
WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH DRY ON SATURDAY...BUT STRONG
HEATING COULD HELP POP A FEW AFTERNOON STORMS.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE DROPS THROUGH THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE. SHOWERS POSSIBLE STARTING SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MONDAY WITH LINGERING MOISTURE AND UPPER FORCING.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A COUPLE OF DEGREES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
NORTH AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT EXPECT THEM TO
REMAIN IN THE LOWER 90S.

RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE AT THE SURFACE ANOTHER BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY. ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS BOUNDARY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY AS IT DROPS SOUTH OF THE AREA. WAVE WILL FORM ON THE FRONT
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND WILL INCREASE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA AT THE SURFACE
FOR TYPICAL AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM FRI...CURRENTLY VRF CONDS AT THE TAF SITES...OTRW
SCT THUNDERSHOWERS A POSSIBILITY AFTER 18Z AND CONT TO INDICATE THE
THREAT WITH A VCSH AT ALL TERMINALS. ANY PRECIP WILL END DURG THE
EVE. S TO SW WINDS BECOME GUSTY AROUND 15 KT BEFORE DIMINISHING
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND SAT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 122 AM FRI...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA TAF SITES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MAY SEE SUB VFR
CONDITIONS IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AS A WEAK BOUNDARY DROPS THROUGH THE AREA. ANOTHER BOUNDARY EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH AREA LATE TUESDAY WITH ISOLATED SUB VFR CONDITIONS
IN STORMS. MAY ALSO SEE SOME ISOLATED PRE DAWN STRATUS AND FOG.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 PM FRI...SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO ADD LOW POPS ACROSS THE
SRN COASTAL WATERS OF OFF CARTERET/OBX HYDE COUNTIES ASSOC WITH
CONVECTION MOVG NE ALONG THE SRN COAST COAST EARLY THIS AFTN. S TO
SW WINDS 5-15 KT CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTN WITH 2-4 FT SEAS. SOMEWHAT TIGHTER GRADIENT WILL
INC WINDS A BIT TONIGHT IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE...THOUGH STILL
EXPECTING SUB SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT...THOUGH WIND GUSTS
MAY APPROACH 25 KT FOR THE OUTER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WATERS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 147 AM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS WILL START THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE WEST TIGHTENING GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS FOR
SOUTHWEST FLOW 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 5 FEET OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE
WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS THROUGH
SUNDAY...WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. WILL SEE FLOW BECOME WEST AND
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THIS FRONT. FLOW TO BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY MONDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO NOSE BACK IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.
ANOTHER BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY WITH
SURFACE FLOW SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 2 TO 4
FEET.

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...JAC/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...CCG
AVIATION...JAC/CCG/TL
MARINE...JAC/CCG/TL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

302 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

MAIN HIGHLIGHT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY CONTINUES
TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD
OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT.

LATEST SUITE OF SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH THE SURFACE ANALYSIS
PINPOINTS THE COLD FRONT FROM NEAR CYBU/NIPAWIN SASKATCHEWAN TO
CYQR/REGINA SASKATCHEWAN...STRETCHING SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL
MONTANA...JUST WEST OF GLASGOW. A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH WAS LOCATED
FROM NEAR WOLF POINT TO JORDAN MONTANA. LINE OF CUMULUS CLOUDS
DEVELOPING SOUTH INTO CROSBY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH A PATCHY
CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WITH DEWPOINTS TO NEAR 60F COMMON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DEEP
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LACKING...BUT SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE
OF 2000 J/KG WITH 30KT TO 35KT 0-6KM SHEAR ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. THE LATEST HRRR MAINTAINS ISOLATED CONVECTION INITIATING BETWEEN
21Z AND 22Z IN THE NORTHWEST WITH SOME SEMBLANCE OF A LINE
DEVELOPING FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE PRE FRONTAL TROUGH BY 23Z.
WOULD APPEAR THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL GENERATE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AS IT MOVES ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WITH CAPE/SHEAR ALIGNMENT AND COLD
FRONTAL/PRE TROUGH TIMING LATE THIS AFTERNOON...COULD SEE A COUPLE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING WIDESPREAD AT THIS
TIME. THE GFS IS ABOUT 3 TO 5 HOURS FASTER THAN THE NAM12 SATURDAY
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER
DESPITE TIMING DIFFERENCES...THE MAIN MESSAGE OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT SATURDAY WITH
A FEW POSSIBLY SEVERE...REMAINS ON TRACK.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A MARGINAL RISK
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY EVENING ALONG A
SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT (SEE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION
ABOVE).

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES GENERATING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.

AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION ABOVE...A SOUTHEASTWARD
MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF MY CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST. A FEW SEVERE
STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN 1-2K J/KG OF MUCAPE AND 40KTS
OF 0-6KM SHEAR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE MAINLY
ACROSS MY SOUTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE FRONT
STALLS AND ENERGY ALOFT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. INSTABILITY
DECREASES AFTER 06Z SUNDAY MORNING AND SO WILL THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER.

LULL IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTH INTO NORTH DAKOTA. THEREAFTER A SERIES OF EMBEDDED
WAVES MOVING EAST THROUGH THE REGION COUPLED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
JET ALOFT WILL SEE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK. OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
LOW FOR MID-JUNE AS THE JET ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A COOLER AIRMASS
TO NUDGE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK
MAINLY IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER KISN BY 03Z AND
SLOWLY PROPAGATE INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL VEER FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION A VCTS IN ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KJMS WHICH WILL NOT HAVE A
THREAT UNTIL AFTER 18Z SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BECOME WIDESPREAD...RATHER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT TIMES.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

1245 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

LATEST SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS SFC BASED CIN ERODING ACROSS
THE FAR WEST AND NORTHWEST...WITH CAPE BETWEEN 1000 AND 1800 J/KG.
SURFACE COLD FRONT SLICING THROUGH YORKTON SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHWEST
TO JUST WEST OF GLASGOW. A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH WAS NOTED JUST EAST
OF GLASGOW SOUTH TO JORDAN MONTANA. LATEST HRRR STILL SHOWS ISOLATED
CONVECTION INITIATING OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 21Z AND
22Z...THEN DEVELOPING FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE PRE FRONTAL TROUGH
BUT REMAINING ISOLATED THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CAPE MENTIONED ABOVE ALONG WITH BULK SHEAR OF
30KT TO 35KT AWAITING THE FRONTAL APPROACH. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR CONVECTION FORECAST...OTHERWISE THE REST
OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 818 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

UPDATE ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

MARGINAL SEVERE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER KISN BY 03Z AND
SLOWLY PROPAGATE INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL VEER FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION A VCTS IN ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KJMS WHICH WILL NOT HAVE A
THREAT UNTIL AFTER 18Z SATURDAY. PRECIPIATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BECOME WIDESPREAD...RATHER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT TIMES.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

444 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT WILL
STALL ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO SATURDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS UNTIL 9
PM. FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION IS MAKING GOOD EASTWARD PROGRESS WITH
STRONG WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. HIGH DCAPE OF NEARLY 1300
J/KT REMAINS IN PLACE EAST OF THE LINE OF STORMS.

NEXT WE TURN OUR ATTENTION TO THE AIRMASS RECOVERY THAT IS ONGOING
ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW 70S. ML CAPES
ARE REBOUNDING TO 1500-2000 J/KG WITH SOUTHWESTERLY ON THE SOUTH
SIDE OF THE ELONGATED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TO THE PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING ALONG THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT. LOW LEVEL SHEAR HAS A MAXIMUM IN
THIS AREA WITH NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. SOME
THINGS ARE WORKING AGAINST THIS NEW DEVELOPEMENT...INCLUDING THE
EARLIER CONVECTION AND DECREASING DEEP LAYER SHEER IN THE WAKE OF
THE SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS ACTIVITY BEFORE CANCELLING PORTIONS OF
WATCH 290. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THIS NEW ACTIVITY TO GET GOING
AND SUPPORT WILL START TO WANE AFTER SUNSET. HRRR DOES SHOW THIS
ACTIVITY REACHING NW OHIO AND THEN EXPANDING EASTWARD WHILE
WEAKENING OVERNIGHT. WE DO REMAIN IN THE DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
AREA AND IF AN EAST TO WEST BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS SETS UP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY THEN FLOOD ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED. EXPECTING
THIS TO OCCUR FAR ENOUGH AFTER PEAK HEATING THAT NO FLOOD WATCHES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH AND STALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ON SATURDAY. WE WILL LACK FORCING BUT DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES WILL
REMAIN IN THE SOUTH AND EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON. STORMS OVER
THE WEEKEND WILL BE MORE PULSY IN NATURE BUT ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

BOUNDARY STARTS TO LIFT NORTH ON SUNDAY AND EXPECTING ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH DIURNAL HEATING.
UNFORTUNATELY DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH PW VALUES
INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES AND REMAINING INTO MONDAY. ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. THIS
IS OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IF STORMS ARE TIED TO A BOUNDARY AND
MOVING LITTLE. ANOTHER WAVE WILL TRY TO ROUND THE RIDGE ON MONDAY
AND EXPECTING THAT TO BE THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY FOR
ANY AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN UP UNTIL THEN. WILL ALSO
BE MONITORING FOR A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL OSCILLATE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SEVERAL SHORT
WAVES WILL INTERACT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK CREATING MOVEMENTS IN THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT
SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY ONLY TO RETURN NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY. DEEP
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH THE
FRONT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY ..I AM HESITANT TO REMOVE SHOWERS FROM THE
FORECAST IN ANY LOCATION FOR ANY PERIOD. WHILE IT IS A MORE LIKELY
SCENARIO WE WILL HAVE WINDOWS OF RAIN ON MOST OF THE DAYS DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD THE TIMING OF THESE WINDOWS WILL BE DIFFICULT.

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM FRONT BETWEEN ERIE AND DUNKIRK. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NRN IL
WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THIS FRONT THIS EVENING AND PUSH THE
FRONT BACK SOUTH ACROSS NRN OHIO WHERE IT WILL STALL AND RESIDE
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE WITH
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN WILL BRIEFLY
BRING VSBYS DOWN UNDER 2 MILES. TIMING WILL BE FROM 18Z THROUGH
PRIMARILY 00Z. SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER STILL POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z
WITH FRONT IN THE VICINITY. HAVE FOCUSED TAFS ON THE MORE INTENSE
ACTIVITY FOR NOW. WILL AMEND AS DETAILS BECOME CLEARER. OTHERWISE
TREND WILL BE FOR LOWER CEILINGS AS THE FRONT SINKS
SOUTHWARD...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR AND EVEN IFR LIKELY. CONDITIONS
WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE SATURDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON-VFR SATURDAY THRU WED WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA.

.MARINE...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR LAKE ERIE WILL CREATE VARIABLE CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
LAKE TONIGHT SHIFTING THE WINDS TO A NORTHWEST AND THEN A
NORTHEAST DIRECTION ON SATURDAY. AS THE FRONT PUSHES NORTHWARD AS
A WARM FRONT LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A
MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG NEAR THE FRONT BUT WIND DIRECTION WILL BE DIFFIULT TO
PREDICT AS THE FRONT OSCILLATES NEAR THE LAKE.

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...GARNET
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...GARNET

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SIOUX FALLS SD

1231 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

BEYOND TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS DIFFERENCES BECOME MUCH
GREATER...LEADING TO MUCH HIGHER UNCERTAINTY. WILL LEAVE ALLBLEND
POPS AND TEMPERATURES IN PLACE FOR NOW.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY BUT
KSUX IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THEM THROUGH THE PERIOD. KHON MAY BE
THE LUCKY SITE WITH MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. KFSD LIKELY TO
SEE SOME VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AS SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CUMULUS DISSIPATES. HOWEVER THE CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH.

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...08

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NASHVILLE TN

340 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.DISCUSSION...
BASICALLY...AS IS THE CASE WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERNS THE
UPPER LEVELS WILL GENERALLY GOVERN THE WEATHER SCENARIO OVER THE
NEXT 7 DAYS. THAT SAID...UPPER HIGH OVER THE BAHAMAS IS BEGINNING TO
STRENGTHEN WITH RIDGING NOSING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD TN. SCATTERED
CONVECTION STRETCHES FROM CENTRAL TO SOUTHWESTERN AREAS OF THE
CWA. THE SCATTERED CONVECTION IS NOW WEAKENING...AS THE HRRR
INDICATED...AS THE UPPER RIDGE IS GAINING CONTROL.
MEANWHILE...WE ARE SEEING MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT WITH THE
MOVEMENT ACROSS SRN KY. HRRR LOOP REALLY PICKS UP ON THE ANTI-
CYCLONIC FLOW WITH TIME. AT ANY RATE...THIS ACTIVITY IS DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AND WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE THE ACTIVITY DECREASE BY
EVENING. WILL OF COURSE INCLUDE A PRE AFTERNOON PERIOD AND ADJUST
POPS PER LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

DESPITE THE STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY...MOISTURE LEVELS BENEATH THE RIDGE WILL STILL BE
SOMEWHAT APPRECIABLE. THEREFORE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP AGAIN. ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH
WILL MOVE CLOSER TO OUR AREA. MRH VALUES WILL DROP AND CONVECTION
WILL BECOME MORE HARD PRESSED TO DEVELOP. FURTHERMORE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BECOME MORE VERTICALLY STACKED THEREBY REDUCING THE
SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TAP. WE STILL...HOWEVER...SEE A POSITIVE
CAPE/CAP RATIO AND THEREBY SLIGHT CHANCES OF MAINLY AFT AND EVE
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR THE SHORT TERM TEMPS...ABOVE NORMAL VALUES TO CONTINUE. WONT
DRIFT MUCH FROM MAV NUMBERS.

IN THE EXTENDED FCST...UPPER RIDGING WILL RELAX BY MID WEEK AND A
WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP OVER TX. WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL THEN PICK UP WITH AN ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN CURVATURE AND SHEAR
UPSTREAM. CONVECTION COVERAGE WILL INCREASE INTO THE CHANCE CAT WITH
NOCTURNAL POTENTIAL AS WELL...GIVEN THE ADDED UPPER LEVEL ENERGY.
LATEST GFS SHOWING A RATHER WET FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE REACHES OUR AREA. SUPER-BLEND NOT COMPLETELY
SOLD ON THIS SCENARIO AS OF YET.

FOR THE EXT TEMPS...A CONTINUATION OF WARM/HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS.
DESPITE THE RELAXATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE BY MID WEEK...HEIGHTS WILL
STILL REMAIN ON THE ELEVATED SIDE.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 71 90 71 92 / 30 30 20 20
CLARKSVILLE 71 88 70 89 / 20 30 20 20
CROSSVILLE 68 86 68 86 / 30 30 20 20
COLUMBIA 71 90 71 92 / 30 20 20 20
LAWRENCEBURG 71 89 70 91 / 30 20 20 20
WAVERLY 71 88 71 90 / 20 30 20 20

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEMPHIS TN

1228 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1043 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/12Z UPPER AIR PLOTS INDICATE
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. AS OF 10 AM
CDT...SKIES ARE SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

WILL MAKE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND ANY OTHER ELEMENTS
AS NEEDED TO ACCOUNT FOR SHORT TERM TRENDS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST
OVERALL IS IN GREAT SHAPE.

UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

CJC

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015/

DISCUSSION...

SJM

.AVIATION...18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 10-15KT TODAY...5-10KT TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATEST
CHANCE AT TUP....BUT BECOME MORE LIKELY AREA WIDE AFTER SUNRISE
TOMORROW. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. IFR TO LIFT DUE TO VIS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED AT JBR BY AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW.

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BROWNSVILLE TX

247 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...IN THE IMMEDIATE TERM
THE SEABREEZE ACTIVATED EARLIER THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ALONG IT MOVING NORTHWESTWARD. TAKING A LOOK AT THE
HRRR AND RAP BOTH MODELS KEEP THIS ACTIVITY GOING FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS THEN DISSIPATING AROUND SUNSET AS THE SEABREEZE AND
FORCING WEAKENS. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY LIGHTNING AND HAS BEEN ISOLATED
IN NATURE AND PROGRESSING NORTHWESTWARD SO AMOUNTS OF ONE QUARTER
INCH OR LESS.

THE ATMOSPHERE IS FAIRLY DRY IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WITH
MOST MOISTURE CENTERED AT 850MB AND BELOW. PWATS ON THE 12Z
SOUNDING WERE 1.85 INCHES HERE AT BRO. ONCE THE SUN GOES DOWN THE
FORCING WEAKENS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES GO DOWN TO AROUND 10%
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GULF WATERS WHERE CHANCES WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE BECOMING A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
OVERNIGHT AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S.

SATURDAY WILL BE A REPEAT OF TODAY JUST WITH A LITTLE MORE
MOISTURE I EXPECT TO SEE WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
HAVE RAISED POP CHANCES TO CHANCE ALONG THE SEABREEZE AND TRACKED
THAT POP CHANCE INLAND AFT 18Z CORRESPONDING TO THE MOVEMENT OF
THE SEABREEZE. MAY EVEN EXPERIENCE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN
RIO GRANDE RIVER AREA IN ZAPATA COUNTY BY SUNSET. ANOTHER HOT AND
MUGGY DAY IN STORE WITH HEAT INDICIES OR FEELS LIKE TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW TO MID 100S.

.LONG TERM.../SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...STILL CONTINUING TO KEEP
AN EYE ON THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WHICH
MOVES SLOWLY TOWARDS THE WEST. THIS LOW WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY
PENETRATING THE LAST OF THE DEEP DRY AIR WHICH HANGS ON ABOVE THE
700 MB LEVEL THROUGH SUNDAY AS SUBSIDENCE HOLDS. WEAK UPPER TROUGH
SLIDING INTO NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY EVENING DOES LITTLE MORE THAN
MAINTAIN GUSTY SOUTHEAST FLOW WHICH IS GENERALLY NOT CONDUCIVE TO
PRECIP AFTER MIDDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 77...IF MORNING
CONVECTION DEVELOPS. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR POPS REMAIN OVER THE
GULF WATERS AND COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH MONDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES SHOW UP SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH THE GFS
HOLDING EXPANDING RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WITH A LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ECMWF IS NOT
DETECTING A STRONG LOW LIKE THE GFS AT THIS TIME. THE MAIN IMPACTS
AT THIS TIME WILL BE THE INCREASE OF A MORE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER POPS OFFSHORE. THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE CONTENT IS DEPICTED IN THE MODELS WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2.14 INCHES WITH MORE DEEPER MOISTURE
EVEN UP TO 700 MB. THIS WILL RESULT IN GREATER POTENTIAL FOR RAIN
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

HAVE FOCUSED HIGHEST CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS LIKELY TO BE
SPREAD INTO TUESDAY AND PERHAPS THURSDAY AS THINGS EVOLVED. BELIEVE
THE ECMWF IS A BIT TOO QUICK TO SHOVE THE DEEPER MOISTURE TOWARD THE
SIERRA MADRE NEXT THURSDAY SO HELD ONTO 50/50 CHANCES FOR THE TIME
BEING. THE SENSIBLE WEATHER RESULT WOULD BE POCKETS OF NUISANCE
URBAN-TYPE FLOODING BUT NO WIDESPREAD RAIN DUMPS...EVEN THOUGH
EVERYONE LIKELY TO END UP WITH 1-2 INCHES AS A BASELINE BETWEEN
MONDAY AND NEXT FRIDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...ONLY A FEW TWEAKS
MAINLY TO NUDGE AFTERNOON VALUES DOWN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN COVERAGE.

.MARINE....NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BUOY 42020 REPORTED
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 13 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 17 KNOTS WITH
SEAS OF 3.6 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 6 SECONDS AT 14 CDT/19 UTC. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL INTERACT WITH LOWER PRESSURE
OVER WEST TEXAS RESULTING IN MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ALONG THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST. SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT AND ACROSS ALL LOWER TEXAS COASTAL
WATERS SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE GULF
WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...RAIN CHANCES ARE ON THE INCREASE AS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE GRADUALLY
SHIFTS WEST INTO THE GULF WATERS. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY. BOTH MODELS ARE DEPICTING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH ASSOCIATED WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS IN THE NEXT MODELS RUNS BUT MAINLY WILL
BRING GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH INCREASE SE WINDS. SEAS AS A RESULT WILL BUILD DUE TO
THE LONG SE FETCH OVER THE GULF WATERS. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 6 TO 8
FEET FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. SCA ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 80 90 80 89 / 20 30 30 30
BROWNSVILLE 79 91 79 90 / 20 30 20 30
HARLINGEN 78 93 78 92 / 10 30 20 30
MCALLEN 79 96 79 95 / 10 30 10 30
RIO GRANDE CITY 78 97 78 97 / 10 20 10 20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 80 87 80 86 / 20 30 30 30

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM...67
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...STRAUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

1244 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. STILL
NOT ENOUGH TO TRY AND PIN DOWN FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN VCTS. THERE
WAS SOME DISCONNECT BETWEEN THE RAP MODEL AND THE SATELLITE
LOCATION OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF...HOWEVER THE
MODEL CONSENSUS WAS TO SHEAR OUT THE LOW DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
OR SO AND PUSH THE MOISTURE AXIS INTO THE EASTERN LOCATIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. TAKING A CONSENSUS OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS
SHOWS THAT A BREAK IS LIKELY THIS EVENING FOR ALL SITES BUT KGLS.
ANOTHER BOUT OF SHOWERS SHOULD WORK ITS WAY INLAND LATE THIS
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ON SATURDAY...TSRA COVERAGE
SHOULD INCREASE BY AROUND 12Z WITH KIAH...KHOU...AND KGLS LOOKING
TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES THROUGH 18Z.

LOOKING AHEAD TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE MODEL CONSENSUS WAS TO
SCATTER OUT THE GOOD COVERAGE OVER THE SITES NEAR THE COAST AND
GALVESTON BAY. FOR NOW A CONSENSUS OF THE ARW...NAM12...AND TEXAS
TECH WRF WAS FOR THIS TO OCCUR BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR FEW-SCT DECKS WITH REGIONAL STREAMER SHOWERS MOVING UP FROM
THE COAST THIS MORNING. MODEST CHANCES FOR SOME OF THESE MID
AFTERNOON CUMULUS TOWERS TO TRANSFORM INTO MID-LATE AFTERNOON
STORMS. HIGHER MOISTURE AND ADDED INSTABILITY BEING BROUGHT IN
FROM AN APPROACHING EASTERLY WAVE/NORTHERN GULF DISTURBANCE WILL
INCREASE THE PROBS OF EXPERIENCING MORE AREAWIDE PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY. GENERALLY...VFR CEILINGS DURING PERIODS OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. A TIGHTER ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE A
MORE MODERATE LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON LOWER LEVEL SOUTHERLY
WIND. 31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COASTAL SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING AND MOVING INLAND EARLY THIS MORNING...
ESPECIALLY IN/AROUND THE GALVESTON BAY AREA. THIS ACTIVITY LINES UP
WELL WITH THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF A RISING MOISTURE FIELD THAT IS
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE PICTURES AND IS WORKING ITS WAY INTO
THE WESTERN GULF WATERS. EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE TODAY AS SOME OF THIS MOISTURE CONTINUES EDGING INTO OUR AREA.
BUT MUCH BETTER CHANCES ARE STILL ON SCHEDULE BEGINNING TONIGHT NEAR
THE COAST AND THEN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND AND
ON INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS A >2 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR MASS
WORKS ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA. A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL TAP DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE RESULTING IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME...SEE NO REASON TO
CHANGE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE THAT HAD TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
RAINFALL TOTALS RANGING FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES NORTHWEST OF THE HIGHWAY
59 CORRIDOR AND 2 TO 4 INCHES TO THE SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY. IF TRAINING
ACTIVITY SETS UP...PARTS OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY LOCATIONS NEAR/ALONG
THE COAST AND OFFSHORE COULD EASILY SEE TOTALS GREATER THAN 6 INCHES.
OBVIOUSLY...WE WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR HOW EVERYTHING UNFOLDS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS FOR POSSIBLE FLASH FLOOD WATCHES. IF MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING NEXT WEEK EDGES FAR ENOUGH WESTWARD INTO OUR AREA...EXPECT
TO SEE DECREASING RAIN COVERAGE. BUT IF THE RIDGING REMAINS FAR ENOUGH
OFF TO OUR EAST...THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TAP COULD PERSIST RESULTING
IN A CONTINUED THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING.
42

MARINE...
THE TIGHT ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE WESTERN EXPANDING
ATLANTIC HIGH AND LOWERING WESTERN PLAINS PRESSURE HAS STRENGTHENED
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO CAUTION LEVELS. THIS LONG DURATION SOUTHEAST
FETCH EXTENDING ALL THE WAY FROM THE CARIBBEAN WILL AID IN PICKING
UP OFFSHORE SEAS TO 6 TO 8 FEET ON SATURDAY...LIKELY HOISTING
OFFSHORE ADVISORY FLAGS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGHER WEEKEND WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS MAY AID IN GENERATING
STRONGER RIP CURRENTS WHILE PUSHING UP TIDAL LEVELS. PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AN
APPROACHING EASTERLY WAVE WILL INITIATE MORE AREAWIDE PRECIPITATION
EARLY NEXT WEEK. 31

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 90 74 88 73 88 / 20 20 40 30 60
HOUSTON (IAH) 90 76 87 74 87 / 40 40 70 40 70
GALVESTON (GLS) 87 79 86 78 86 / 40 50 70 50 70

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...40