Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/11/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
220 PM MST TUE JUN 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY MARKEDLY DECREASING RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE
REDEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HELP OF THE DAYTIME HEATING.
THE AIR MASS REMAINED RATHER MOIST FOR JUNE AS SURFACE DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES WERE STILL IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S IN SPOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BUT THE RAPID STORM MOTION WILL LIMIT
WIDESPREAD FLOODING CONCERNS TODAY. THE LATEST HRRR SOLUTIONS HAVE
BEEN HANDLING THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT VERY WELL FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT THE ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH RATHER RAPIDLY AFTER SUNDOWN THIS EVENING. THEREAFTER...A
SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN REGION WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST
NORTHEAST OF TUCSON ESPECIALLY IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. DRY
CONDITIONS ELSWHERE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. MEDUIM RANGES MODELS
WERE SIMILAR WITH DEEPENING A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION SATURDAY...THEN SLOWLY MOVING THE TROUGH AXIS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY SUNDAY NIGHT. LINGERING
MOSITURE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. A VERY GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL START
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BY
NEXT MONDAY FORECAST TO BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THROUGH 10/23Z.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 4-8K FT AGL AND BKN-OVC CLOUDS AT 9-14K FT THRU
10/09Z...THEN FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT 5-9K FT AGL AND SCT CLOUDS AT 10-15K
FT AGL. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA THRU 10/06Z...WITH AREAS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS AND WIND GUSTS TO 35-40 KTS WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS. OTHER THAN THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS...SURFACE WIND
WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU 10/17Z. AFT 10/17Z...
WLY/NWLY SURFACE WIND AT 12-18 KTS AND GUSTS TO 25-28 KTS WITH THE
STRONGEST SURFACE WIND EAST OF KTUS IN THE VICINITY OF KFHU...
KALK...KDUG AND KSAD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
MAY OCCUR WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
DECREASE RAPIDLY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH WITH LINGERING
SURFACE MOISTURE IN PLACE THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. A MORE PRONOUNCED DRYING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR
FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES
CONFINED TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. SOME BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF TUCSON. LIGHTER WINDS ARE
THEN FORECAST OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
903 AM MST TUE JUN 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FOLLOWED BY MARKEDLY DECREASING RAIN CHANCES
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...STILL LOOKING AT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH A LOT OF CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING. HRRR SOLUTIONS SUGGESTED
THAT THE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR A BIT THIS MORNING SOUTH OF TUCSON. THIS
CLEARING WILL BRIEF AS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE A LITTLE MORE SURFACE HEATING. AT
ANY RATE...THE CURRENT FORECAST APPEARED TO HANDLE THE TRENDS WELL.
THUS...NO UPDATES NECESSARY THIS MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE
ADDITIONAL SECTIONS IN THIS PRODUCT FOR MORE DETAILS.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THROUGH 10/18Z.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS -SHRA WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
TODAY. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF TSRA...WITH THE FAVORED AREA
EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF KTUS TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. AREAS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY. BRIEF WIND
GUSTS APPROACHING 40 KTS MAY ALSO OCCUR. THE COVERAGE OF -SHRA WILL
DECREASE CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT...WITH ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
-SHRA MAINLY NORTH OF KTUS WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...CLOUD
BASES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 6-12K FT AGL...AND SURFACE WIND WILL
MAINLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL OCCUR TODAY.
THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST
LIKELIHOOD OF OCCURRENCE ACROSS GRAHAM...GREENLEE AND COCHISE
COUNTIES EAST OF TUCSON. EXPECT DECREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
NORTH OF TUCSON. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES MAINLY ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY
INTO MONDAY. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE...GENERALLY LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS WILL PREVAIL INTO
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TODAY WITH
ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE FAVORED
AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS COCHISE...GRAHAM AND GREENLEE
COUNTIES EAST OF TUCSON WHERE VARIOUS 09/12Z NWP MODELS DEPICT THE
MOST UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT TO OCCUR. THE BULK OF DEEP MOISTURE IS
THEN PROGGED TO MOVE NWD INTO NRN ARIZONA. RAINFALL CHANCES WILL
DECREASE MARKEDLY TONIGHT...WITH ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF TUCSON TO PREVAIL LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WED MORNING.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BY DAYBREAK WED WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM 0.10 TO 0.50 INCH AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND FROM 0.25 TO 0.75
INCH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR
LATER TODAY...PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS AND
ESPECIALLY ACROSS ERN SECTIONS. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL
IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR AT THIS TIME.
A DRIER REGIME WILL START WED...ESPECIALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...IN RESPONSE TO INCREASINGLY WLY FLOW ALOFT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND A TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT BASIN. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY MAINLY NE OF TUCSON. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES MAINLY ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS THUR-FRI WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
THE 09/00Z GFS/ECMWF WERE SIMILAR VERSUS PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS WITH
DEEPENING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SAT...THEN
SLOWLY MOVING THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EWD INTO THE SRN
ROCKIES BY SUN NIGHT. THESE MODELS LINGERED SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE
ACROSS ERN SECTIONS INTO MON. THUS...HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS SAT-MON WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 3-8 DEGS F COOLER VERSUS TEMPS
ACHIEVED MON. A VERY GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE WED AND
CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH HIGH TEMPS NEXT MON FORECAST TO
GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGS ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
852 AM MST TUE JUN 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLANCA
WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION FROM TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE
AREA...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. DRIER AIR AND A RETURN TO
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER DESERTS THIS
MORNING AS THE REMNANT LOW ASSOCIATED WITH BLANCA GRADUALLY
DISSIPATES. MORNING SOUNDINGS AROUND THE AREA ARE CERTAINLY MOIST
ENOUGH...WITH PWATS AROUND 1.7 INCHES NOTED AT TUCSON AND 1.6 INCHES
NOTED AT YUMA. BOTH VALUES ARE OBVIOUSLY WELL INTO THE 99TH
PERCENTILE FOR WHAT WOULD BE EXPECTED THIS TIME OF YEAR. NOT
SURPRISINGLY SOME LOCATIONS ARE STARTING TO SEE MEASURABLE PRECIP
/ALBEIT LIGHT/. AROUND PHOENIX MOST OF THE RAIN AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN A
TRACE WHEREAS A FEW SITES AROUND YUMA ARE STARTING TO ACCUMULATE. FOR
WHAT IT`S WORTH...ANYTHING MORE THAN A TRACE AT YUMA WOULD BE A NEW
RECORD FOR THE DATE.
AS WE`RE NOW INTO THE EVENT...THE FULL SUITE OF HI-RES MODEL DATA IS
AVAILABLE AND THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR INDICATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS /HIT AND MISS/ WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE PHOENIX AREA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOWERS SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS
CERTAINLY BLENDS WELL WITH THE CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC. TOOK A
LOOK THROUGH THE INHERITED FORECAST AND ASIDE FROM SOME UPWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND MINOR TIMING ADJUSTMENTS TO
POPS...IT DOESN`T APPEAR ANY MAJOR CHANGES ARE NECESSARY AT THIS
POINT. DESPITE IT`S SLOW ARRIVAL...THE LOW WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE
AREA TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST MOVES
INLAND.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
BOTH MODELS TAKE THE REMAINS OF BLANCA/S LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION NW-
WARD INTO SE CA/EXTREME SW AZ TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND BRING
0.15-0.50 INCHES OF RAIN TO THAT REGION. GIVEN THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY...AND VERY WARM AIR ALOFT (500MB TEMPS AS HIGH AS -
3C)...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
SPARSE...ESPECIALLY OVER SE CA/SW AZ...WHERE A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY TODAY. STILL...EVEN WITHOUT THE
THUNDERSTORMS...TROPICAL WARM RAIN PROCESSES CAN STILL PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED
URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING ISSUES. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT MUCH OF
THE GREATER PHX AREA MAY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY WED TO SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL...THAT IS WHEN THE WRF AND
GFS PUSH MOISTURE EASTWARD INTO REGION FROM SE CA AS THE MAIN UPPER
TROF...THAT IS NOW WELL OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST...MOVES INLAND INTO
CA/NV...AND WINDS ALOFT BECOME MORE WESTERLY. SOME SLIGHT COOLING
ALOFT AND DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF COULD ALSO ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVES ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL AZ. SOME SHOWER/TS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO WED
AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHX AS THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE WESTERLY...BUT DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION SHOULD
ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR OVER MOST AREAS BY WED NIGHT. THE RAIN AND
CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP HIGHS BELOW NORMAL AT MOST LOCATIONS
TODAY AND WED...WITH SOME LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS ACROSS SE CA AND SW
AZ NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 80S TODAY.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BRING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPS TO THE REGION DURING
THIS PERIOD...WITH HIGHS WARMING BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY... THE GFS...EURO...AND GEM CONTINUE TO BRING
ANOTHER...WEAKER UPPER TROF WILL INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TS TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHX.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY... RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST
WILL LIKELY BRING MAINLY SKIES SKIES AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO OUR CWA DURING THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND
KSDL...
REMNANT TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM FORMER HURRICANE BLANCA WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THROUGH 02Z WED...CIGS
LOWERING TO BETWEEN 8-10 THSD AGL WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN. LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 8 KNOTS...EXCEPT GUSTY NEAR HEAVIER
SHOWERS.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
DEEP REMNANT TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM FORMER HURRICANE BLANCA WILL
SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. THROUGH 18Z TUE...CLDS
GRADUALLY LOWERING AND BECOMING BKN-OVC 6-8 THSD AGL BY 18Z TUE.
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN BY 18Z TUE. FROM
18Z TUE TO 04Z WED...CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER IN LIGHT OCCASIONAL
MODERATE RAIN. CIGS BECOMING BKN-OVC 4-6 THSD AGL BY 23Z TUE. LIGHT
SOUTH WIND 5 TO 10 KNOTS EXCEPT GUSTY NEAR HEAVIER SHWRS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
DRIER CONDITIONS FROM THE WEST DEVELOPING THURSDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
WILL STABILIZE IN THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE. BREEZY AFTERNOON
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE. FAIR
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
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DISCUSSION...LEINS/PERCHA
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
945 PM MST MON JUN 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE FROM THE REMAINS OF BLANCA WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTH THIS
EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS...MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON LATER THIS WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 03Z (8 PM MST)...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLANCA WAS
LOCATED AT 27.8N LAT; 113.7W LONG...OR ABOUT 90 MILES WNW OF SANTA
ROSALIA MEXICO (WHICH IS OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA...JUST TO
THE EAST OF THE BAJA SPUR). BASED ON THE LATEST ADVISORY FROM THE
HURRICANE CENTER...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO JUST A
REMNANT LOW IN 12 HOURS OR LESS. IT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS IT
MAKES A GENERAL NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA/NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM THAT COVERS MUCH OF NORTHERN MEXICO...EXTREME SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...MUCH OF ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A
LARGE BATCH OF VERY LIGHT RETURNS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA.
HOWEVER...MUCH OF THIS IS JUST VIRGA (RAIN THAT EVAPORATES BEFORE
MAKING IT TO THE GROUND). DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS THE MAIN
FOCUS OF AREAS THAT HAVE ACTUALLY RECEIVED PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND EASTERN ZONES TOWARD NEW MEXICO.
THIS IS BECAUSE MUCH DRIER AIR WAS IN PLACE TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS
THE PHOENIX AREA. EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES WERE
IN THE 30S...WHILE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S IN SOUTHERN COCHISE COUNTY.
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AT 04Z (9 PM MST) RANGED FROM THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S FROM NOGALES TO DOUGLAS TO SAFFORD...WHILE DEWPOINTS AREA IN
THE LOWER 50S AT TUCSON AND STILL IN THE 30S NORTHWEST OF TUCSON
TOWARD RED ROCK AND PICACHO PEAK. THIS MOIST AIR TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD AND SHOWERS
THAT MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH WILL THEN HAVE A MUCH
BETTER CHANCE AT REACHING THE GROUND...WHICH WAS THE CASE EARLIER
THIS EVENING. THE 09/00Z KTWC SOUNDING REVEALS THIS SCENARIO WITH
VERY DRY AIR BELOW ABOUT 600MB...WHILE IT WAS VERY MOIST FROM 600MB-
250MB. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE ON THE SOUNDING WAS UP TO 1.04
INCHES...WHICH WAS UP SLIGHTLY FROM THE 0.97 INCHES FROM 08/12Z.
A DISTURBANCE CAN BE SEEN IN WV IMAGERY IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF
NORTH CENTRAL SONORA AND RADAR SHOWS A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX JUST
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD EASTERN SANTA CRUZ AND
SOUTHWESTERN COCHISE COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. THE INHERITED POP
FORECAST HANDLES THIS SITUATION QUITE WELL...WITH NUMEROUS CATEGORY
POP FOR THE NOGALES/SIERRA VISTA AREAS WITH LESSER CHANCES THE
FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST...WITH ONLY ISOLATED CATEGORY
POPS ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF MY FORECAST AREA...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WITH SCATTERED TYPE POPS. AFTER
MIDNIGHT OR SO...THE RAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD FARTHER
NORTH AND WEST WITH SHOWERS SCATTERED IN NATURE FOR ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA...THEN INCREASING DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS THE
REMNANT CIRCULATION OF BLANCA MOVES CLOSER TO SOUTHERN ARIZONA. THAT
SAID...I DO NOT PLAN TO MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE INHERITED POP
FORECAST SINCE IT SEEMS TO CAPTURE RECENT SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS
QUITE WELL AND THE MOST RECENT RUN OF THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE DOING
WELL BASED ON THOSE TRENDS.
AS OF 04Z (9 PM MST)...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 60S TO 90
DEGS...WITH THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT REPORTING A TEMP OF 82 DEGS
AFTER AN AFTERNOON HIGH OF 99 DEGS...WHICH WAS NORMAL FOR THIS DATE.
WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SHORT TERM HOURLY TEMP GRIDS TO
BETTER REFLECT ONGOING TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE INHERITED OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPS SEEM TO BE OK BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
FOR DETAILS REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND TONIGHT...PLEASE REFER TO
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THROUGH 10/06Z.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL AND BKN-OVC CLOUDS AROUND 20K FT
AGL...WITH CLOUDS BASES LOWERING OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AT 5-9K FT AGL AND BKN-OVC CLOUDS AROUND 15K FT AGL BY 09/08Z. THE
INCREASING MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN ISOLD-SCT
-SHRA/-TSRA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING OR ABOUT 09/15Z... AND THEN SCT-
NUMEROUS -SHRA/-TSRA AFT 09/15Z. MVFR CONDITIONS AND WIND GUSTS OF
35-45 KTS MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER TSRA. OTHER THAN THUNDERSTORM
OUTFLOWS...SURFACE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE BLANCA WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND THEN SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH WITH LINGERING
SURFACE MOISTURE IN PLACE THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A MORE PRONOUNCED
DRYING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH
ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONFINED TO ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER
AND IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...AFTER BECOMING THE EARLIEST LANDFALLING TROPICAL
CYCLONE ON RECORD FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA...BLANCA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY
WEAKEN. AS OF 2 PM SHE WAS NEAR THE CENTRAL BAJA SPUR AND HAD BEEN
DOWNGRADED TO DEPRESSION STRENGTH. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING EXPOSED AND DECOUPLED VERTICALLY.
MID LEVEL SUPPORT LOOKS LIKE IT`S SHEARING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IN
OUR GENERAL DIRECTION...WHILE THE REMNANT LOWER LEVEL CIRCULATION
CONTINUES NORTHWARD TOWARD SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. THIS WILL COME INTO
PLAY TOMORROW.
MEANWHILE...THE MOISTURE INCREASE CONTINUES (ALBEIT SLOWLY
INITIALLY) WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS NOW UP TO THE LOWER 50S NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGE FROM AROUND 1
INCH NEAR TO JUST SOUTH OF US...TO 1.3 TO 1.6 INCHES IMMEDIATELY
SOUTH OF THE BORDER...WITH 2 INCH VALUES JUST SOUTH OF THAT. AS A
POINT OF REFERENCE...THE RECORD PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE MONTH IS 1.43 (6/12/97) AND THE OVERALL ALL TIME
HIGHEST FOR JUNE IS 1.7 (6/29/84). AT LEAST THE EARLY ONE AND MAYBE
BOTH OF THOSE ARE IN TROUBLE.
FOR TUESDAY IT LOOKS LIKE WE ARE GOING TO BE ON THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT OF THE SHEARING MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WHICH...COMBINED WITH
THE MOISTURE...SHOULD ORGANIZE SOME AREAS OF CONVECTION ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE BUT WE`RE NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.
INITIALLY THE UPSTREAM WESTERLY FLOW UNDER ALL OF THESE FEATURES
WILL BE MOIST AS EVERYTHING LIFTS INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA TUESDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE LOW
NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST SHOULD BE GUIDING RELATIVELY DRIER AIR
INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. WE EXPECT TO HANG ONTO ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR SOME EASTERN MOUNTAIN BUILDUPS LATER IN THE WEEK. THIS
WILL ALSO SEE TEMPERATURES BOUNCE BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE AFTER A DROP
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
CURRENT DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER/ZELL
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
730 PM PDT WED JUN 10 2015
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CENTERED NEAR THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...HIGH DESERTS...AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE INLAND EMPIRE. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN ON THURSDAY
WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND PATCHY MORNING FOG ALONG THE COASTAL SLOPES.
ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE AREA WILL BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BRINGING WEST NORTHWEST FLOW WITH DRIER AIR...WARMER
WEATHER...AND A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
AT 1 PM PDT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE
THE REGION STEMMING FROM A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH...CENTERED NEAR THE
THE SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. PER VISIBLE SATELLITE...GROWING CU
WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE SPINE OF THE RIVERSIDE COUNTY AND SAN
BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS. SHOWERS HAD ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS NEAR JOHNSON VALLEY.
SCATTERED TO OVERCAST STRATUS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND HAVE UPDATED SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS. AS
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL ADVECT OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. THE 10/1200Z GFS INDICATES A VORT MAX PUSHING
THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...CAPE BETWEEN 100-200
J/KG...LIFTED INDEX BETWEEN -1 AND -3 DEGREES C OVER THE SAN
BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS...RIVERSIDE MOUNTAINS...AND THE UPPER DESERTS.
WITH THESE CONDITIONS...COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD DESTABILIZE ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS
CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR AND NAM4 ARE SHOWING THE
ELSINORE CONVERGENCE ZONE DEVELOPING A SHOWER OR TWO SO HAVE ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP TO THIS AREA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IS ALSO
CONFIRMING THIS CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY. OF THE STORMS THAT DO
FORM....BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WOULD BE THE
MAIN CONCERN. AS 500 MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO LOWER...TODAYS HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES F COOLER IN COMPARISON
TO YESTERDAY.
ON THURSDAY...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION WITH
THE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD OUT OF CALIFORNIA. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND
OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TODAY. ON FRIDAY...THE 10/1200Z GFS...
ECMWF...AND NAM ALL INDICATE AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING
SOUTH AND MOVING OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. LIFT FROM THIS WAVE
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MODERATE AMOUNTS OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD JUSTIFY CONTINUING THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND UPPER DESERTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE OF PRECIP DEVELOPING IS MODERATE.
THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...SQUEEZED BETWEEN A TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND SUB
TROPICAL HIGH TO THE SOUTH. AS 500 MB HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXPECT ONSHORE FLOW...A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND...AND A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER.
&&
.AVIATION...UPDATED
110230Z...BKN-OVC STRATUS WITH HIGHLY VARIABLE CLOUD COVERAGE
AND CLOUD BASES THROUGH 06Z. CLOUD BASES LOWERED TO 500-1000 FT
IN COASTAL SAN DIEGO COUNTY THIS EVENING WITH DRIZZLE AND 3-5SM BR
IN SOME AREAS INCLUDING KSAN. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE
INLAND EMPIRE AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH 05Z. AFT 05Z...WIDESPREAD
STRATUS SPREADING ACROSS ORANGE COUNTY AND THE INLAND EMPIRE WITH
BASES 700-1200 FT MSL AND TOPS 2500 FT MSL. SOME MTN OBSCURATION
OF THE LOWER COASTAL SLOPES POSSIBLE AFT 10Z. CLOUDS CLEARING BACK
TO THE COAST THROUGH 18Z THU.
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...WEST WINDS 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS 30-35 KT OVER
MTN RIDGES...THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES/CANYONS...ALONG DESERT SLOPES
AND INTO ADJACENT DESERT AREAS WILL CREATE MOD-STG UDDFS/LLWS OVER AND
EAST OF THE MTNS.
&&
.MARINE...
120 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...JT/JJT
AVIATION/MARINE...HARRISON/MOEDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
349 AM PDT TUE JUN 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH COOLING TREND. WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
&&
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
OVERNIGHT THERE WERE A FEW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED NEAR THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN BORDER OF SHASTA COUNTY, BUT THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS STAYED TO THE NORTH IN SISKIYOU COUNTY.
MOST PEOPLE WILL BE WAKING UP TO A WARM MORNING. TEMPERATURES AT 3
AM RANGED 72 TO 84 DEGREES IN THE VALLEY. ONLY THE DELTA REGION IS
A BIT COOLER WITH TRAVIS AFB MEASURING 66 AT 3 AM. EVIDENCE THAT
THE DELTA BREEZE WILL BE MAKING HER RETURN TODAY AS WINDS AT
TRAVIS ARE ABOUT 15 MPH AND THE FORT ORD PROFILER IS SHOWING THAT
THE MARINE LAYER IS TRENDING THICKER...NOW ABOUT 1500 FT AS
OPPOSED TO 24 HOURS AGO WHEN IT WAS LESS THAN 1000 FT THICK. ALL
THANKS TO THE INCOMING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
TIMING IS EVERYTHING FOR TODAY`S TEMPERATURE FORECAST. MAX
TEMPERATURE WILL BE A BIT TRICKY, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS INFLUENCED
BY THE DELTA BREEZE. THE HRRR AND NAM MODELS ARE BOTH INDICATING
THAT THE DELTA BREEZE WILL REALLY START TO KICK IN AROUND 1 PM AND
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER, WITH A WARM START TO THE DAY,
THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY CAN THE DELTA BREEZE WORK HER
COOLING MAGIC. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A FAIRLY LARGE DISCREPANCY FOR
HIGHS TODAY BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM (SOMETIMES CLOSE TO A 10
DEGREE DIFFERENCE). HAVE TWEAKED THE TEMPERATURES TO TRY AND BLEND
BOTH THOSE MODELS. THE GOOD NEWS, IS THAT THE SACRAMENTO METRO
REGION SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY (PERHAPS
MORE IF THE DELTA BREEZE STRENGTHENS EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED).
FOR REGIONS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80, THE COOLING TREND WILL ONLY BE
A FEW DEGREES TODAY. SO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
SACRAMENTO VALLEY WILL LIKELY STILL BE IN TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT WHILE
THE SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S. THE DELTA AND MOUNTAINS WILL RANGE IN
THE 70S TO 80S.
ANOTHER "COOL" FACTOR IS THAT CLOUDS AND MOISTURE FROM FORMER
TROPICAL CYCLONE BLANCA ARE WORKING THEIR WAY NORTHWARD ACROSS
SOCAL THIS MORNING TO INTERACT WITH THE INCOMING LOW. SATELLITE
IMAGERY HAS CLOUDS APPROACHING SANTA MARIA AND BAKERSFIELD AT 3:30
AM WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE OCEAN. THE REMNANTS OF
BLANCA WILL ALSO AID IN THE COOLING TREND TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS
INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THE HRRR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING TO POP OVER THE WESTERN SIERRA AND COASTAL RANGE AROUND 1
PM WITH INCREASING ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING. NAM SHOWS THAT
SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
BY WEDNESDAY, ALL OF OUR CWA WILL NOTICE A SIGNIFICANT COOLING
EFFECT FROM THE LOW AS IT TRACKS DIRECTLY OVER CENTRAL CA. MUCH OF
THE VALLEY WILL BE IN THE 80S! THIS WILL PUT US NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. CHANCES FOR RAIN CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY, BUT SHOULD START DIMINISHING AFTER 5 PM. TOTAL RAIN AMOUNTS
IN THE VALLEY WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH (LOCALLY
HIGHER IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP) WHILE THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS
WILL PEAK BETWEEN A THIRD OF AN INCH TO OVER AN INCH.
THE LOW TRACKS EASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH MEANS OUR REGION
WILL RETURN TO HOTTER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SETS UP AGAIN OVER NORCAL AND VALLEY HIGHS
WILL SHOOT BACK UP INTO THE 90S AND LOW 100S. JBB
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
NORCAL IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN A SOUTHEASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE AND A
NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH ON SATURDAY. THE TROUGH DIPS SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY TO COOL TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL. IT IS A
FAIRLY BROAD TROUGH, SO WE WOULD EXPECT LIMITED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SUNDAY OVER SHASTA COUNTY. THE TROUGH WILL HELP TO
STRENGTHEN THE DELTA BREEZE AND COOL THE SURROUNDING VALLEY AREA.
THE PATTERN STABILIZES MONDAY AND TUESDAY OVER NORCAL, WHICH
STILL REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE TWO PRESSURE SYSTEMS. THE
TROUGH PLACEMENT AND LIMITED AMPLITUDE WILL ONLY MAKE FOR A
MODERATE DELTA BREEZE THROUGHOUT THE LATE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL (UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S IN VALLEY AND UPPER 60S TO LOW 80S
FOR FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS). JCLAPP
&&
.AVIATION...
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATER TODAY AND
POTENTIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MAINLY MOUNTAINS, BUT COULD
IMPACT VALLEY SITES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
OVER REGION. DELTA BREEZE INCREASES LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING.
JCLAPP
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
344 AM PDT TUE JUN 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE COAST WILL BRING A NORTHWARD SURGE OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BLANCA TODAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SIERRA
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
AFTER YESTERDAYS BLISTERING HEAT...WE WILL SEE A BIT OF A
REPRIEVE...BUT IT WILL COME AT A PRICE. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AS A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED SOUTH OF KERN COUNTY. THE HRRR MODEL
SHOWS IT MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SOME STORMS MAY BE
STRONG WITH HEAVY RAIN. PWAT`S ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.25
INCHES. MINOR STREET FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
THE INTERESTING THING ABOUT OUR CURRENT PATTERN IS THAT THE UPPER
LEVEL REMNANTS OF ANDRES IS SPINNING OFF THE COAST AND IS
INTERACTING WITH THE MID AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF BLANCA. ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WE HAVE
SEEN CONVECTION BREAK OUT OVERNIGHT WITH GOOD PVA AND ASSOCIATED
MID LEVEL JET MAX COMING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW CENTER. THE
GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING THE UPPER LOW CENTER TO MOVE ONSHORE
ACROSS CENCAL AND PROVIDE PLENTY OF UNSETTLED ACROSS THE CENCAL
INTERIOR THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE IT OPENS UP AND MOVES EAST OF THE
SIERRA. PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SIERRA THROUGH THE WEEK. AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS ALSO EXPECTED
WITH SOME STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE.
AFTER THE LOW MOVES OUT ON FRIDAY WE SEE THE RETURN OF THE EPAC
RIDGE. THIS ALSO MEANS THE RETURN OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL HEAT WITH
MANY LOCALES GETTING BACK INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE SJV AND
KERN DESERT NEXT WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ACROSS CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA WITH A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. LOCAL MVFR IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOJAVE
DESERT AND SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA...TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS AND
DIABLO MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 06-09 110:2014 66:1954 74:2014 48:1901
KFAT 06-10 106:1986 65:1976 73:2014 46:1954
KFAT 06-11 106:1979 71:1894 72:1918 47:1894
KBFL 06-09 110:2014 72:1954 78:1973 45:1908
KBFL 06-10 107:1975 73:1976 76:2014 45:1954
KBFL 06-11 109:1979 73:1963 76:2014 42:1913
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...JDB
AVN/FW...MV
SYNOPSIS...JDB
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
953 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA LATE TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH AND THEN OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT SETTLES ACROSS OUR AREA LATE
THURSDAY, THEN STALLS IN OUR REGION FRIDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD
INTO SATURDAY. THIS FRONT THEN LOOKS TO SETTLE BACK SOUTH INTO OUR
AREA SUNDAY BEFORE STALLING NEARBY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF MID MORNING...RADAR SHOWS SOME AREAS OF VERY LIGHT PRECIP
MOVG GENLY NEWD ACROSS THE AREA. SFC OBS SHOW LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATION. POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN
KEPT IN THE LOW CHANCE RANGE BUT MENTION OF THUNDER HAS BEEN
REMOVED. A WEST TO EAST CLEARING TREND IS EVIDENT ON THE VIS STLT
LOOP AND IS SUPPORTED BY FCST DECREASING RH IN THE RAP MODEL.
A FAIRLY STG VORT CENTER IS NOTED OVER NW PA MOVG NEWD INTO WRN NY
STATE. MOST OF THE CURRENT STRONGER CONVECTION ATTM IS ASSOCD WITH
THIS FEATURE AND SHOULD STAY WELL N/W OF OUR FCST AREA.
SFC DEWPTS ARE STILL IN THE MID/UPPER 60S AND WITH DAYTIME HTG
SOME INSTBY HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER ERN PA. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NOW ANALYZED OVER WRN PA IS FCST TO WORK ITS WAY EWD INTO
OUR AREA THIS AFTN. THIS BOUNDARY AND ASSOCD SFC TROF SHOULD
PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTN...ALTHO DRIER AIR
MOVG IN ALOFT MAY LIMIT ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY S/W OVER DELMARVA AND
SRN NJ. A MARGINAL CHC FOR SVR STORMS IS INDICATED OVER NRN HALF
NJ AND ADJACENT PA WHERE DYNAMICS ARE SMWHT STRONGER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL CONSENSUS OF PCPN GETTING OFFSHORE BEFORE 00Z THIS EVENING
SOUTH. ANY LINGERING POPS EARLY FOR TONIGHT ARE CLOSER TO THE COLD
POOL NORTHEAST AND ALL DONE BY 00Z. WITH THE PREDICTED 500MB FLOW
BECOMING ZONAL FAST WITH NVA, RAPID CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS
PREDICTED. SOME PATCHY FOG SHOULD FORM. NOT SURE PENDING HOW MUCH
PCPN OCCURS IF IT WILL HAVE ENOUGH OF A PUBLIC IMPACT. FOR THIS
REASON WE ARE TAKING A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH. MIN TEMPS WERE AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW STAT GUIDANCE IN OUTLYING/RURAL AREAS AND CLOSER TO
STAT GUIDANCE IN URBAN CENTERS AND COASTAL AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THEN THIS
WEAKENS AS A RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES BUILDS SOME DURING
FRIDAY. WHILE THE RIDGE REMAINS, THE NORTHERN STREAM LOOKS TO
AMPLIFY A TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST DURING SATURDAY WITH SOME
RIDGING THEN RETURNING SUNDAY. THE FLOW MAY THEN TURN MORE ZONAL
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AS WE GO THROUGH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO SEND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO OUR AREA,
HOWEVER IT MAY TEND TO STALL OR EVEN OSCILLATE NORTH AND SOUTH AS A
WEAK SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE AS THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES BUILDS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD
RESULT IN HOT CONDITIONS FOR A TIME LATER IN THE WEEK, HOWEVER THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
ANY ASSOCIATED CLOUDS/CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY. WE USED A MODEL
BLEND FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC
GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE BASED ON
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BECOME AMPLIFIED SOME AS A SHORT WAVE
MOVES FROM NEAR THE GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A WEAK
SURFACE HIGH TO OUR SOUTH WILL EASE OFF THE COAST AND THEN
STRENGTHEN WITH TIME. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK WELL TO OUR
NORTH, HOWEVER A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO SETTLE INTO
OUR AREA DURING THURSDAY. THE BOUNDARY ITSELF WILL TEND TO BECOME
MORE PARALLEL TO THE FLOW ALOFT THEREFORE ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION
SHOULD SLOW.
A DRY BUT RATHER WARM DAY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THE DEW POINTS
SHOULD LOWER SOME WITH PEAK HEATING AND DRIER AIR ALOFT. THERE DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION WITH THE FRONT
THURSDAY, HOWEVER GIVEN A VERY WARM BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN THE DEW POINTS WE CARRIED LOW CHC POPS IN THE AFTERNOON
MAINLY FOR THE AREAS NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 95. MANY AREAS SHOULD
GET TO AROUND 90 DEGREES THURSDAY AFTERNOON, AND IF THE DEW POINTS
STAY ELEVATED ENOUGH THEN HEAT INDICES ESPECIALLY IN THE URBAN
CORRIDOR WILL BE CLOSE TO 95 DEGREES. THE FLOW LOOKS TO BE LIGHT
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY ESPECIALLY. THE
POPS THEN LOWER TO SLIGHT CHC THURSDAY EVENING.
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE DRAPED WEST
TO EAST ACROSS A PORTION OF OUR AREA FRIDAY, HOWEVER IT SHOULD THEN
LIFT NORTHWARD INTO SATURDAY AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE BOUNDARY THEN SETTLES BACK SOUTHWARD ACROSS
OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY. IT APPEARS THAT MUCH OF THE CONVECTION IS
INITIALLY TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES WHERE LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS
ENHANCED SOME BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE
LOW. THERE COULD BE A LEE SIDE TROUGH FRIDAY THAT MAY HELP FOCUS
SOME CONVECTION AS WE REMAIN ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE.
A POTENTIAL CAP THOUGH MAY LIMIT DEVELOPMENT THIS FAR EAST.
THE CONVECTIVE CHCS SHOULD INCREASE DURING SATURDAY AS THE FRONT
SETTLES BACK SOUTHWARD AND SOME HEIGHT FALLS ARRIVE AS A TROUGH
AMPLIFIES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE CONVECTION MAY HAVE SOME
ORGANIZATION SATURDAY IN AN WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION AS THE FRONT
ARRIVES. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD WANE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING
SATURDAY NIGHT AS IT SETTLES SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. ANOTHER HOT DAY
FRIDAY WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE URBAN CORRIDOR ESPECIALLY
POTENTIALLY REACHING 95 DEGREES DURING PEAK HEATING. THE FLOW ON
FRIDAY MAY BE LIGHT ENOUGH WITH THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY TO ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER COOLING SEA BREEZE. IT APPEARS THAT SOME COOLING THEN
STARTS TO TAKE PLACE SATURDAY AS THE FRONT ARRIVES.
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY DURING THIS TIME
FRAME AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY STILL BE LURKING IN THE AREA,
ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD START TO DISSIPATE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES BUILDS SOME. BASED ON THE CURRENT
GUIDANCE, IT LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION IS FOCUSED TO OUR SOUTHWEST NEAR
THE FRONT AND TERRAIN INFLUENCES. THIS MAY THEN CREEP NORTHEASTWARD
MONDAY HOWEVER THAT WILL DEPEND ON WHAT IS LEFT OF THE FRONT AND HOW
MUCH FORCING CAN BE GENERATED. SOME GUIDANCE IS MUCH WARMER DURING
THIS TIME FRAME, HOWEVER GIVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT WE USED
A CONTINUITY/WPC BLEND.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THIS MORNING...GENERALLY MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE LIKELY TO
PERSIST AT LEAST UNTIL AROUND 14Z WHEN CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR BY THE END OF THE MORNING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER MORE TO THE
WEST WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS REACHING
AROUND 20 KNOTS BY NOON.
THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CIGS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS. SHOWERS WERE PLACED IN THE KABE TAF BECAUSE OF HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE. TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO ISOLATED TO
CONFIDENTLY PLACE IN THE TERMINALS WITH THIS PACKAGE. WEST WINDS
SHOULD CONTINUE AT SIMILAR SPEEDS AND GUSTS.
THIS EVENING...VFR WITH NO CIGS OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS AND WEST
WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISHING.
OVERNIGHT...SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AT MORE RURAL AIRPORTS
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND NO CLOUDS PREDICTED.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...VFR. WESTERLY WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST MAINLY LESS THAN
10 KNOTS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR OVERALL, HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF KPHL. SOUTHWEST WINDS MOSTLY AROUND 10
KNOTS THURSDAY, THEN SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST 5-10 KNOTS ON FRIDAY.
SATURDAY...VFR OVERALL, HOWEVER TIMES OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE WITH SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD.
&&
.MARINE...
NO CHANGE IN TIME OR AREA WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
HEADLINE FOR COASTAL AREAS. WHILE THE LOW LEVEL JET IS BEING
OVERFORECAST, WINDS SHOULD COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA, ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. SEAS ARE ALREADY AROUND 5 FEET
AND IN LINE WITH WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE. IT NOW DROPS SEAS FASTER
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT EVEN LIGHTER WINDS AND LOWER SEAS ARE PREDICTED AS A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM COMES CLOSER TO OUR MARINE AREA.
OUTLOOK...
THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST
TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY THEN STALL FOR A TIME BEFORE
LIFTING NORTH INTO SATURDAY. IT SHOULD THEN SETTLE BACK SOUTHWARD
AGAIN LATER SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SHIFTING WINDS, ALTHOUGH
THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
THE RIP CURRENT RISK FOR TODAY IS MODERATE FOR BOTH THE JERSEY
SHORE AND THE DELAWARE BEACHES.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...AMC/GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GIGI/GORSE
MARINE...GIGI/GORSE
RIP CURRENTS...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
103 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING EASTWARD
INTO THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION BY THE END OF
THE WEEK DECAYING OR STALLING JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THIS NEXT ESTF UPDATE WILL BE TO ADJUST POPS BASED ON THE LATEST
HRRR AND COSPA SOLUTIONS. CONVECTION IS MORPHING MORE INTO A
STRATIFORM RAIN WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDER STRIKES. OVERALL NOT
MUCH CHANGES, JUST UPPING POPS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE
DELMARVA CONVECTION MOVES THRU THE PHILLY METRO AREA AND POINTS
NORTH. THEN DELAYING THE WESTERN PCPN ARRIVAL BY ABOUT THE SAME
AMOUNT OF TIME. MOST OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE ON OR CLOSE TO
SCHEDULE.
THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT THE EXTENT OF FOG, BUT STILL MAY SEE
PATCHY FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. RAIN-COOLED AIR IN WAKE OF THE
CONVECTION CONSISTS OF TEMPS. DO NOT EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP MUCH
OVERNIGHT THOUGH SO LOWS WILL BE CLOSE TO CURRENT READINGS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO TUESDAYS WEATHER.
AN UPPER TROUGH SLOWS AS IT CROSSES THE AREA AND THE SFC FRONT
WASHES OUT. POPS AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE HIGHER N THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT THE DAY WILL NOT BE A TOTAL WASH-OUT. THERE COULD BE A
DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ACROSS SRN NJ AND THE DELMARVA ON TUE.
TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 80S SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. INITIALLY, A FAIRLY
SEASONABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH SUNNY SKIES. HOWEVER, ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WARMTH AND MOISTURE WILL BE
ADVECTED INTO THE REGION, RAISING RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND
TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. 925 MB TEMPS ARE
CURRENTLY MODELED TO BE AROUND 25C. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL
LEAD TO WARMER AND MUGGIER NIGHTS AS WELL. THESE FACTORS SUGGEST
WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS PUSHING AND EXCEEDING 90 THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
FOR MOST OF US WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID 90`S, POSSIBLY
FLIRTING WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA. AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FROM THE NORTHWEST LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY OFFER OF A BREAK WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM. HOWEVER, IT ENCOUNTERS THE
ESTABLISHED RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
WHICH WILL SLOW IT AND RESULT IN THE FRONT DECAYING OVER THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND. NOT MUCH SPREAD IN THE MODELS AND VARIOUS
ENSEMBLES IN THIS PERIOD. .
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE FOR
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD.
MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM BLANCA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
TRAVEL NORTHWARD ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE BY SATURDAY AS A RESULT, KNOCKING A LITTLE OFF THE
HEAT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CONTINUE IT`S SLOW MOVEMENT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE
HIGHER RAIN AND STORM CHANCES SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE COOLER AS WELL. THE LOCATION OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MORE UNCERTAIN BY MONDAY WITH THE FURTHER
NORTH GFS BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAT AND THE ECMWF BEING
COOLER. FOR NOW WILL TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER AND MUGGIER THAN THE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. .
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
06Z TAFS DO NOT START THE DAY OFF ON AN EASY NOTE, WITH GENERALLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS THE MORNING CONTINUES OUTSIDE OF ANY
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR TSTMS.
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...LAST BATCH OF ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
SHOULD CLEAR THE TERMINALS BY AROUND 07Z. GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AROUND, WE ARE EXPECTING A MVFR CIG WITH MVFR VSBYS TO
DEVELOP. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME IFR CIGS NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF
KPHL METRO AIRPORTS. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
LLWS CONCERNS, GUIDANCE IS VERIFYING TOO STRONG WITH THE LLJ VS
THE KDIX VAD WIND PROFILE. LLWS WILL NOT BE INCLUDED. THIS JET
SHOULD BE OFFSHORE BY 12Z.
THIS MORNING...SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP PRECEDING A PRE FRONTAL
TROF, MOST LIKELY FROM THE KPHL METRO AIRPORTS EAST AND SOUTH.
TSTMS TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE LIKELY TO
PERSIST AT LEAST UNTIL AROUND 12Z WHEN CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR BY THE END OF THE MORNING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER MORE TO THE
WEST WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS REACHING
AROUND 20 KNOTS BY NOON.
THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CIGS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS. SHOWERS WERE PLACED IN THE KRDG AND KABE TAFS BECAUSE OF
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE. TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO ISOLATED
TO CONFIDENTLY PLACE IN THE TERMINALS WITH THIS PACKAGE. WEST
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE AT SIMILAR SPEEDS AND GUSTS.
THIS EVENING...VFR WITH NO CIGS OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS AND WEST
WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISHING.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR.
SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE TUESDAY OVERNIGHT. WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM,
OTHERWISE VFR. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY: MVFR AND IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE,
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS IN
THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
THE VWP AT KDOV AND KDIX ARE VERIFYING LESS THAN MODELS ARE
SHOWING,E ESPECIALLY THE HRRR AND NAM. WITH WINDS BELOW SCA
CRITERIA AND AN INVERSION IN PLACE, WE WILL CANCEL THE SCA
FOR DELAWARE BAY.
WE WILL MAINTAIN THE PRESENT SCA FLAG FOR THE WATERS OVERNIGHT.
THE SRLY GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AND
STEADY WINDS WITH G25 TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED. TSTMS WILL OVERSPREAD
THE WATERS TONIGHT AND WINDS/SEAS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CHOP. SCA
FLAG COULD BE EXTENDED IN TIME OVER DEL BAY IF CONDITIONS DO NOT
SETTLE DOWN FAST ENOUGH.
OUTLOOK...
SUB SCA SEAS AND WINDS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. GENERAL WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS UNDER 20 KNOTS, HIGHEST GUSTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
SEAS AROUND FOUR FEET TUESDAY EVENING, SCA EXTENSION UNLIKELY ATTM.
SEAS THEN AROUND THREE FEET THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
THE RIP CURRENT RISK FOR TUESDAY IS MODERATE FOR BOTH THE JERSEY
SHORE AND THE DELAWARE BEACHES.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/GIGI
MARINE...GAINES/KLEIN/O`HARA
RIP CURRENTS...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
915 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015
HAVE ALREADY UPDATED ONCE. STORMS ONGOING IN NORTHERN PART OF THE
CWA AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THE REST OF THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY
INTO OVERNIGHT. WILL TRY TO UPDATE SHORTLY TO FRESHEN GRIDS AND
WORDING FOR REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015
COLD FRONT SLOWLY EDGING TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN
A MUGGY AIRMASS. LAPS DATA SHOWING 4000-5000 J/KG AVAILABLE ENERGY
BUT SO FAR, CONVECTION HAS NOT YET STARTED. HOWEVER, CONVECTION IS
ANTICIPATED ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT SAGS INTO ILX NORTHERN TIER.
ADVANCEMENT OF THE FRONT IN THE OVERNIGHT IS LIMITED WITH STRONG WAA
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED TO
REMAIN IN THE NORTHERN TIER AT LEAST IN THE IMMEDIATE TERM. CAPE
WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT ONCE THE SUN SETS AND THE DIURNAL INFLUENCE
IS LOST. THAT BEING SAID, STILL ENOUGH OF A HUMID AND HOT AIRMASS
TO PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
NORTH OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY HAVANA TO DANVILLE. EVEN WITH PWS IN
EXCESS OF 1.5-2"...THE HRRR AND RAP/RUC IS SOMEWHAT LIMITING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THAT BEING SAID, THE
NORTHERN TIER OF ILX IS STILL IN A SLIGHT RISK THROUGH THE
EVENING...AND WITH AMPLE CAPE, EVEN WITHOUT A LOT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR, STORMS CAN EASILY DEVELOP SOME GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015
THE 12Z MODELS SHOW THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING NORTHWARD IN THE
MORNING, IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE WILL CREATE A HOT AND
HUMID DAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SE IL. STORM CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO
THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT NORTHWARD, SO AREAS NORTH OF A LINE FROM
RUSHVILLE TO LINCOLN TO BLOOMINGTON WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCES.
SPC INCREASED OUR SEVERE POTENTIAL FROM MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK IN
THAT GENERAL AREA, WITH ELEVATED CAPES OF 2-2500 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR
OF 20-25KTS PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. SO DOWNBURST WINDS AND HAIL WILL
BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FOR THURS AFTN/EVE.
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW IN EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL SLIDE EAST
ACROSS IOWA. A BREAK IN THE STORMS APPEARS LIKELY, UNTIL AROUND
SUNRISE ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW REACHES CLOSE TO NW IL. STORM CHANCES
WILL EXPAND TO THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY...AS THE LOW PASSES TO OUR
NORTH AND IT DRAGS A COLD FRONT INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE
FRONT WILL TRIGGER STORMS, SOME POSSIBLE SEVERE WITH HAIL AND WIND.
SPC HAS US IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. WE FOLLOWED
THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA WITH
LIKELY POPS, FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ALL SHOW THE COLD FRONT STALLING OUT ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON SATURDAY...KEEPING THE FOCUS FOR STORMS
SOUTH OF PEORIA TO BLOOMINGTON. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
HELP LOWER HIGH TEMPS NORTH OF THE FRONT INTO THE LOWER 80S, BUT
HUMIDITY WILL NOT IMPROVE MUCH AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN MID TO UPPER 60S.
THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, WITH
STORM CHANCES INCREASING TO LIKELY ON SUNDAY WEST OF A LINE FROM
EFFINGHAM TO DANVILLE...AS A COUPLE OF STRONG SHORTWAVES TRIGGER
PERIODIC STORMS. LIKELY CHANCES OF RAIN LINGER NORTH OF PEORIA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE PLAINS INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. MORE LIKELY POPS APPEAR EVIDENT IN THE EXTENDED
MODELS FOR TUESDAY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES FROM KANSAS INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
ONE MAIN THEME THROUGHOUT THE 7 DAY FORECAST IS HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT IN THE AIRMASS, AND INSTABILITY EVERYDAY. SHEAR PARAMETERS
GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 25KTS, WHICH LENDS TOWARD SLOW MOVING
STORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. FLASH FLOODING
COULD BECOME A REAL CONCERN IN AREAS THAT SEE REPEATED STORM TRACKS
OVER THE NEXT WEEK. RAINFALL RATES OVER SHORT PERIODS OF TIME COULD
EASILY CLIMB AS HIGH AS 3 INCHES PER HOUR...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES REPEATEDLY CLIMB TOWARD 2 INCHES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 735 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015
REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PCPN IN ALL TAFS FOR NEXT 24HRS. STORM
NORTH OF BOTH PIA AND BMI THIS EVENING AND SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF
THEM AND DIMINISH BEFORE IT GETS TO EITHER ONE. SO VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES NEXT 24HRS. IF SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK
LIKE THEY WILL GET CLOSER TO PIA AND BMI...WILL BE UPDATING TO
INCLUDE PCPN...BUT FOR NOW THINK THEY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF BOTH
SITES.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AUTEN
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...SHIMON
AVIATION...AUTEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
734 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015
COLD FRONT SLOWLY EDGING TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN
A MUGGY AIRMASS. LAPS DATA SHOWING 4000-5000 J/KG AVAILABLE ENERGY
BUT SO FAR, CONVECTION HAS NOT YET STARTED. HOWEVER, CONVECTION IS
ANTICIPATED ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT SAGS INTO ILX NORTHERN TIER.
ADVANCEMENT OF THE FRONT IN THE OVERNIGHT IS LIMITED WITH STRONG WAA
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED TO
REMAIN IN THE NORTHERN TIER AT LEAST IN THE IMMEDIATE TERM. CAPE
WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT ONCE THE SUN SETS AND THE DIURNAL INFLUENCE
IS LOST. THAT BEING SAID, STILL ENOUGH OF A HUMID AND HOT AIRMASS
TO PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
NORTH OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY HAVANA TO DANVILLE. EVEN WITH PWS IN
EXCESS OF 1.5-2"...THE HRRR AND RAP/RUC IS SOMEWHAT LIMITING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THAT BEING SAID, THE
NORTHERN TIER OF ILX IS STILL IN A SLIGHT RISK THROUGH THE
EVENING...AND WITH AMPLE CAPE, EVEN WITHOUT A LOT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR, STORMS CAN EASILY DEVELOP SOME GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015
THE 12Z MODELS SHOW THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING NORTHWARD IN THE
MORNING, IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE WILL CREATE A HOT AND
HUMID DAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SE IL. STORM CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO
THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT NORTHWARD, SO AREAS NORTH OF A LINE FROM
RUSHVILLE TO LINCOLN TO BLOOMINGTON WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCES.
SPC INCREASED OUR SEVERE POTENTIAL FROM MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK IN
THAT GENERAL AREA, WITH ELEVATED CAPES OF 2-2500 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR
OF 20-25KTS PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. SO DOWNBURST WINDS AND HAIL WILL
BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FOR THURS AFTN/EVE.
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW IN EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL SLIDE EAST
ACROSS IOWA. A BREAK IN THE STORMS APPEARS LIKELY, UNTIL AROUND
SUNRISE ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW REACHES CLOSE TO NW IL. STORM CHANCES
WILL EXPAND TO THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY...AS THE LOW PASSES TO OUR
NORTH AND IT DRAGS A COLD FRONT INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE
FRONT WILL TRIGGER STORMS, SOME POSSIBLE SEVERE WITH HAIL AND WIND.
SPC HAS US IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. WE FOLLOWED
THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA WITH
LIKELY POPS, FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ALL SHOW THE COLD FRONT STALLING OUT ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON SATURDAY...KEEPING THE FOCUS FOR STORMS
SOUTH OF PEORIA TO BLOOMINGTON. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
HELP LOWER HIGH TEMPS NORTH OF THE FRONT INTO THE LOWER 80S, BUT
HUMIDITY WILL NOT IMPROVE MUCH AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN MID TO UPPER 60S.
THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, WITH
STORM CHANCES INCREASING TO LIKELY ON SUNDAY WEST OF A LINE FROM
EFFINGHAM TO DANVILLE...AS A COUPLE OF STRONG SHORTWAVES TRIGGER
PERIODIC STORMS. LIKELY CHANCES OF RAIN LINGER NORTH OF PEORIA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE PLAINS INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. MORE LIKELY POPS APPEAR EVIDENT IN THE EXTENDED
MODELS FOR TUESDAY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES FROM KANSAS INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
ONE MAIN THEME THROUGHOUT THE 7 DAY FORECAST IS HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT IN THE AIRMASS, AND INSTABILITY EVERYDAY. SHEAR PARAMETERS
GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 25KTS, WHICH LENDS TOWARD SLOW MOVING
STORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. FLASH FLOODING
COULD BECOME A REAL CONCERN IN AREAS THAT SEE REPEATED STORM TRACKS
OVER THE NEXT WEEK. RAINFALL RATES OVER SHORT PERIODS OF TIME COULD
EASILY CLIMB AS HIGH AS 3 INCHES PER HOUR...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES REPEATEDLY CLIMB TOWARD 2 INCHES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 735 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015
REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PCPN IN ALL TAFS FOR NEXT 24HRS. STORM
NORTH OF BOTH PIA AND BMI THIS EVENING AND SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF
THEM AND DIMINISH BEFORE IT GETS TO EITHER ONE. SO VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES NEXT 24HRS. IF SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK
LIKE THEY WILL GET CLOSER TO PIA AND BMI...WILL BE UPDATING TO
INCLUDE PCPN...BUT FOR NOW THINK THEY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF BOTH
SITES.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...SHIMON
AVIATION...AUTEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
220 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
.UPDATE...
1145 AM CDT
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THE THICK HIGH LEVEL SMOKE THAT
BLANKETED OUR AREA THIS MORNING SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST WITH THE
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK THAT TRANSPORTED IT HERE. A
FAIRLY STOUT MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE DID RESULT IN BLOSSOMING OF AN
ACCAS FIELD THAT SHIFTED SOUTH FROM WISCONSIN INTO NORTHERN
IL...BUT THIS TOO IS BECOMING MORE SCATTERED THANKS TO A VERY DRY
COLUMN. WITH A TREND FOR INCREASING SUNSHINE AND WARMING
AIRMASS...ONLY ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND DID NOT MAKE
ANY CHANGES TO GOING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S EXCEPT ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE WHERE A LAKEBREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR BREAK OUT SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THIS IS LIKELY PARTIALLY DUE TO ITS
UNREALISTICALLY HIGH FORECAST SFC TEMPS INTO THE 90S IN SOME
AREAS. HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST...BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS.
UPDATED ZONES WILL BE SENT.
RC
&&
.SHORT TERM...
300 AM CDT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE LOOKS TO BRING A DRY DAY AFTER AN ACTIVE
PAST 48 HOURS. NORTHWEST FLOW DOES CONTINUE ALOFT AND A SUBTLE SHORT
WAVE IMPULSE OVER CENTRAL MN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OVER
NORTHEAST IL AND NORTHWEST IN THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH A DRY ENOUGH
ATMOSPHERE PREVENTS ANY MENTION OF A STRAY SHOWER IN THE FORECAST.
WITH MAINLY SUN AND AN ALREADY WARM AIR MASS...MIXING IS FORECAST TO
REACH TO AROUND 800MB THIS AFTERNOON. USING THIS AND GIVEN UPSTREAM
TEMPERATURES IN IA AND MO YESTERDAY...WOULD EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID
TO EVEN A FEW UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-80 MAY
BE KEPT A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER FROM THEIR FULL POTENTIAL GIVEN THE
WET GROUND. A WEAK LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BUT ONLY INCH
INLAND IN NORTHEAST IL AND A TAD MORESO IN NORTHWEST IN. HIGHS IN
THESE PLACES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S BEFORE A SLIGHT
AFTERNOON FALL.
THE NEXT STRONG NORTHERN STREAM JET MAXIMA WILL CARVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TONIGHT DRIVING A DEEP SURFACE LOW FOR JUNE INTO THE
NORTHERN LAKES. AN ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD PROVIDE
FORCING FOR SCATTERED/BROKEN LINE OF STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
MN/WI/LAKE MI LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WHILE THESE
STORMS SHOULD SLOWLY FADE IN INTENSITY AFTER SUNDOWN...SOME COULD
PROGRESS INTO NORTHERN IL AND NORTHWEST IN AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN THE
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW AS WELL AS LOW-LEVEL JET SUPPORT FOR SOME
REDEVELOPMENT. INCREASING SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL MAKE FOR A
MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS OF 66-70.
THE SYSTEM SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS INTO THE FORECAST AREA
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE PARENT TROUGH AND LOW ADVANCING
EASTWARD. BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION AND PARALLEL MID-LEVEL
FLOW WILL SLOW THE FRONT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THIS FEATURE WILL BE
IN THE FORECAST AREA DURING PEAK HEATING ON WEDNESDAY...AND A MEAN
OF GUIDANCE WOULD SUPPORT NEAR TO JUST SOUTH OF I-80. WHILE A SLIGHT
CAP IS FORECAST...INSTABILITY OF 1500-2500 J/KG IS FORECAST BY THE
GFS ALONG THE BOUNDARY /HANDLING TDS BETTER THAN THE NAM/...AND IF
WARM NOSE CAN BE OVERCOME SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD OCCUR WITH THE
CONVERGENT FLOW OF THE BOUNDARY. THE 500MB FLOW AROUND 40 KT MAY
SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZATION OF MORE PERSISTENT STORMS AND PROVIDES A
MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK. INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT AFTER
DARK MAY HELP ANY STORMS TO FESTER WITH SLOW PROPAGATIONS SPEEDS
FORECAST. WHILE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD NOT BE WHAT IT WAS THE
PAST TWO DAYS...HAVE COORDINATED WITH WPC AND ADJACENT OFFICES TO
BOOST QPF SOME BECAUSE OF THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF ANY STORMS AND POOLED
MOISTURE.
MTF
&&
.LONG TERM...
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
220 PM...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY
TO NEAR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY EVENING. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL IL AND CENTRAL
INDIANA INTO THURSDAY EVENING...THEN BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...LIKELY REACHING
THE IL/WI STATE LINE BY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT ITS POSITION WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PERHAPS MAINLY NEAR THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SOUTHERN CWA. CONFIDENCE REGARDING COVERAGE AND
LOCATION IS LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT APPEARS FOCUSED FURTHER NORTH BUT
WHEREVER PRECIP SETS UP THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THERE
COULD BE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGH TEMPS ARE QUITE
TRICKY AND DEPENDENT ON PRECIP TIMING/COVERAGE AND THE TRACK OF
THE LOW. COULD BE A LARGE TEMP GRADIENT WITH LOWER 70S NORTH TO
MID/UPPER 80S SOUTH. WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO POOL IN THE LOWER
70S ACROSS THE AREA...VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ENDING THE
PRECIP THREAT WITH SATURDAY POSSIBLY ENDING UP DRY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA BUT HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.
ON SUNDAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
WITH PERHAPS A WEAK LOW OR TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTH/CENTRAL PLAINS.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL RETURN SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING AND THEN
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AND WITH THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY
FLOW DURING THIS TIME...HIGH TEMPS COULD BE WELL INTO THE MID/
UPPER 80S. CMS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* LLWS LIKELY TONIGHT.
* GUSTY WEST WINDS TOMORROW.
KREIN
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
AN AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS HAS SET UP WLY WINDS OF 5-10KT ACROSS THE REGION. THE
WEAK GRADIENT AND LIGHT WINDS AS WELL AS INLAND WARMING WITH TEMPS
IN THE 80S SHOULD SET UP A LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WINDS RIGHT OFF THE DECK ARE STRONGER AND IT IS EXPECTED
THAT THE LAKE BREEZE SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO THE COAST AND MAKE
LITTLE INLAND PROGRESS. SO...WINDS AT THE TERMINALS SHOULD START
OUT THE PERIOD WLY...BUT AS THE FRONTAL TROUGH PROGRESSES
EWD...WINDS SHOULD BACK TO SWLY. BY LATE THIS EVENING...THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM NRN WISCONSIN TO NERN IOWA...INCREASING
THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SFC WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT. SFC WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE TO ARND 12KT. HOWEVER...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD WITH WINDS ABOVE A SHALLOW SFC BASED INVERSION
INCREASING TO 40-45KT LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE A FAVORABLE SETUP
FOR LLWS FROM ARND MIDNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. DAYTIME
WARMING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT BY ARND 15Z TO ALLOW THE STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT TO MIX DOWN TO THE SFC. BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING THE
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD SHIFT TO THE EAST...BUT MIXING SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR GUSTS OF 20-25KT TO MIX DOWN TO THE SFC
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
PASS ACROSS NRN IL AND NWRN INDIANA BY EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON
LEADING TO A WIND SHIFT FROM SWLY TO WLY/NWLY. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR SOME SHOWERS WITH THE FROPA...BUT MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE
INDICATES PCPN WOULD BE SPOTTY...WHICH MAKES SENSE SINCE THE
BOUNDARY WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OUT
OF THE NRN PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT AND SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SERN CONUS SQUEEZE THE FRONTAL TROUGH DECREASING SFC
BASED FORCING. SO...WILL KEEP THE TAFS DRY THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW.
KREIN
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS.
KREIN
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA. NORTHEAST-EAST WINDS.
FRIDAY...TSRA LIKELY. SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING WEST THROUGH THE
DAY THEN BECOMING NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA. NORTHEAST WINDS DURING THE
DAY...BECOMING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA. SOUTH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST.
MONDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA. WESTERLY WINDS.
KJB
&&
.MARINE...
220 PM...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS ONTARIO TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...REACHING WESTERN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY EVENING. A TRAILING
COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...THE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25KTS. WINDS WILL
SHIFT WEST/NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THE
GRADIENT QUICKLY WEAKENS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LAKE BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL LIKELY PERSIST TONIGHT
BUT AS THE WINDS INCREASE...THE FOG MAY BE PUSHED FURTHER NORTH.
ITS POSSIBLE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED...
ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. WITH THE WEAK
GRADIENT AND LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
ADDITIONAL DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE.
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE PLAINS THURSDAY
TO NEAR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT
NORTHEASTERLY OVER THE NORTHERN END OF THE LAKE AHEAD OF THIS LOW
AND THEN TURN NORTHERLY OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE AS THE
LOW MOVES EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE LOW WEAKENING AS IT MOVES
EAST AND ONLY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTHWEST...THE
GRADIENT DOESN/T APPEAR TO BECOME TOO STRONG. BUT AREAS OF FOG
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE LAKE FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ777-LMZ779 UNTIL 3 PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
128 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
.UPDATE...
1145 AM CDT
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THE THICK HIGH LEVEL SMOKE THAT
BLANKETED OUR AREA THIS MORNING SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST WITH THE
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK THAT TRANSPORTED IT HERE. A
FAIRLY STOUT MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE DID RESULT IN BLOSSOMING OF AN
ACCAS FIELD THAT SHIFTED SOUTH FROM WISCONSIN INTO NORTHERN
IL...BUT THIS TOO IS BECOMING MORE SCATTERED THANKS TO A VERY DRY
COLUMN. WITH A TREND FOR INCREASING SUNSHINE AND WARMING
AIRMASS...ONLY ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND DID NOT MAKE
ANY CHANGES TO GOING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S EXCEPT ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE WHERE A LAKEBREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR BREAK OUT SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THIS IS LIKELY PARTIALLY DUE TO ITS
UNREALISTICALLY HIGH FORECAST SFC TEMPS INTO THE 90S IN SOME
AREAS. HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST...BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS.
UPDATED ZONES WILL BE SENT.
RC
&&
.SHORT TERM...
300 AM CDT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE LOOKS TO BRING A DRY DAY AFTER AN ACTIVE
PAST 48 HOURS. NORTHWEST FLOW DOES CONTINUE ALOFT AND A SUBTLE SHORT
WAVE IMPULSE OVER CENTRAL MN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OVER
NORTHEAST IL AND NORTHWEST IN THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH A DRY ENOUGH
ATMOSPHERE PREVENTS ANY MENTION OF A STRAY SHOWER IN THE FORECAST.
WITH MAINLY SUN AND AN ALREADY WARM AIR MASS...MIXING IS FORECAST TO
REACH TO AROUND 800MB THIS AFTERNOON. USING THIS AND GIVEN UPSTREAM
TEMPERATURES IN IA AND MO YESTERDAY...WOULD EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID
TO EVEN A FEW UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-80 MAY
BE KEPT A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER FROM THEIR FULL POTENTIAL GIVEN THE
WET GROUND. A WEAK LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BUT ONLY INCH
INLAND IN NORTHEAST IL AND A TAD MORESO IN NORTHWEST IN. HIGHS IN
THESE PLACES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S BEFORE A SLIGHT
AFTERNOON FALL.
THE NEXT STRONG NORTHERN STREAM JET MAXIMA WILL CARVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TONIGHT DRIVING A DEEP SURFACE LOW FOR JUNE INTO THE
NORTHERN LAKES. AN ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD PROVIDE
FORCING FOR SCATTERED/BROKEN LINE OF STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
MN/WI/LAKE MI LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WHILE THESE
STORMS SHOULD SLOWLY FADE IN INTENSITY AFTER SUNDOWN...SOME COULD
PROGRESS INTO NORTHERN IL AND NORTHWEST IN AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN THE
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW AS WELL AS LOW-LEVEL JET SUPPORT FOR SOME
REDEVELOPMENT. INCREASING SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL MAKE FOR A
MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS OF 66-70.
THE SYSTEM SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS INTO THE FORECAST AREA
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE PARENT TROUGH AND LOW ADVANCING
EASTWARD. BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION AND PARALLEL MID-LEVEL
FLOW WILL SLOW THE FRONT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THIS FEATURE WILL BE
IN THE FORECAST AREA DURING PEAK HEATING ON WEDNESDAY...AND A MEAN
OF GUIDANCE WOULD SUPPORT NEAR TO JUST SOUTH OF I-80. WHILE A SLIGHT
CAP IS FORECAST...INSTABILITY OF 1500-2500 J/KG IS FORECAST BY THE
GFS ALONG THE BOUNDARY /HANDLING TDS BETTER THAN THE NAM/...AND IF
WARM NOSE CAN BE OVERCOME SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD OCCUR WITH THE
CONVERGENT FLOW OF THE BOUNDARY. THE 500MB FLOW AROUND 40 KT MAY
SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZATION OF MORE PERSISTENT STORMS AND PROVIDES A
MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK. INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT AFTER
DARK MAY HELP ANY STORMS TO FESTER WITH SLOW PROPAGATIONS SPEEDS
FORECAST. WHILE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD NOT BE WHAT IT WAS THE
PAST TWO DAYS...HAVE COORDINATED WITH WPC AND ADJACENT OFFICES TO
BOOST QPF SOME BECAUSE OF THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF ANY STORMS AND POOLED
MOISTURE.
MTF
&&
.LONG TERM...
300 AM CDT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS PROBABLE IN THE CORN BELT/SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THIS TIME. THE FORECAST SYNOPTIC TO EVEN
LARGER SCALE PATTERN ON GLOBAL GUIDANCE FAVORS SUCH WITH 1.) CWA
UNDER NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE AND FREQUENT SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS RIDGING ALONG THIS...2.) CONTINUOUSLY WARM AND LIKELY OFTEN
UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE AND...3.) PWATS IN THE TOP TEN PERCENTILE
REGULARLY IN THIS TIME. SPEAKING TO THE LAST POINT...WITH THE FIRST
TROUGH THAT COMES INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SOME
OF THE MOISTURE FROM NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLANCA ENTERING THE SW
U.S. IS FORECAST TO BE STEERED INTO THE MIDWEST. SO WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THAT TRACK AS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH THE IMPULSE...AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE
RETURNING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. FOR THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...A
WELL-VERIFYING MODEL BLEND WAS GENERALLY USED. THIS LENDS ITSELF
TO A LOT OF CHANCES OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST...BUT THAT CONVEYS
THE PATTERN FAIRLY WELL AT THIS POINT...AND WILL GET REFINED IN
TIME.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* LLWS LIKELY TONIGHT.
* GUSTY WEST WINDS TOMORROW.
KREIN
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
AN AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS HAS SET UP WLY WINDS OF 5-10KT ACROSS THE REGION. THE
WEAK GRADIENT AND LIGHT WINDS AS WELL AS INLAND WARMING WITH TEMPS
IN THE 80S SHOULD SET UP A LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WINDS RIGHT OFF THE DECK ARE STRONGER AND IT IS EXPECTED
THAT THE LAKE BREEZE SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO THE COAST AND MAKE
LITTLE INLAND PROGRESS. SO...WINDS AT THE TERMINALS SHOULD START
OUT THE PERIOD WLY...BUT AS THE FRONTAL TROUGH PROGRESSES
EWD...WINDS SHOULD BACK TO SWLY. BY LATE THIS EVENING...THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM NRN WISCONSIN TO NERN IOWA...INCREASING
THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SFC WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT. SFC WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE TO ARND 12KT. HOWEVER...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD WITH WINDS ABOVE A SHALLOW SFC BASED INVERSION
INCREASING TO 40-45KT LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE A FAVORABLE SETUP
FOR LLWS FROM ARND MIDNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. DAYTIME
WARMING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT BY ARND 15Z TO ALLOW THE STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT TO MIX DOWN TO THE SFC. BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING THE
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD SHIFT TO THE EAST...BUT MIXING SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR GUSTS OF 20-25KT TO MIX DOWN TO THE SFC
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
PASS ACROSS NRN IL AND NWRN INDIANA BY EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON
LEADING TO A WIND SHIFT FROM SWLY TO WLY/NWLY. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR SOME SHOWERS WITH THE FROPA...BUT MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE
INDICATES PCPN WOULD BE SPOTTY...WHICH MAKES SENSE SINCE THE
BOUNDARY WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OUT
OF THE NRN PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT AND SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SERN CONUS SQUEEZE THE FRONTAL TROUGH DECREASING SFC
BASED FORCING. SO...WILL KEEP THE TAFS DRY THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW.
KREIN
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS.
KREIN
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA. NORTHEAST-EAST WINDS.
FRIDAY...TSRA LIKELY. SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING WEST THROUGH THE
DAY THEN BECOMING NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA. NORTHEAST WINDS DURING THE
DAY...BECOMING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA. SOUTH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST.
MONDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA. WESTERLY WINDS.
KJB
&&
.MARINE...
305 AM CDT
CONDITIONS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DENSE
FOG...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE LAKE...THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY TODAY AS A RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND FIELD AND HIGH DEWPOINT
AIRMASS REMAIN OVER THE COLD LAKE WATERS. BECAUSE OF THIS I HAVE
EXTENDED THE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE LAKE
IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR BY THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE LAKE INTO TONIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES...AND THIS WILL LIKELY DRIVE ANY LINGERING FOG ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE LAKE.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OVER THE LAKE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW SHIFTS OVER SOUTHEASTERN
ONTARIO. THIS COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
LAKE TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
LAKE. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT OVER THE
LAKE LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT
WINDS. HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN LATER IN THE WEEK AROUND FRIDAY. THIS WILL
SYSTEM LOOKS TO PRODUCE MORE THUNDERSTORMS...FOG AND SOME HIGHER
WINDS.
PERIODS OF FOG AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE AND
VERY MOIST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ777-LMZ779 UNTIL 3 PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1145 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
.UPDATE...
1145 AM CDT
LATEST VISIBILE SATELLITE SHOWS THE THICK HIGH LEVEL SMOKE THAT
BLANKETED OUR AREA THIS MORNING SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST WITH THE
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK THAT TRANSPORTED IT HERE. A
FAIRLY STOUT MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE DID RESULT IN BLOSSOMING OF AN
ACCAS FIELD THAT SHIFTED SOUTH FROM WISCONSIN INTO NORTHERN
IL...BUT THIS TOO IS BECOMING MORE SCATTERED THANKS TO A VERY DRY
COLUMN. WITH A TREND FOR INCREASING SUNSHINE AND WARMING
AIRMASS...ONLY ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND DID NOT MAKE
ANY CHANGES TO GOING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S EXCEPT ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE WHERE A LAKEBREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR BREAK OUT SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THIS IS LIKELY PARTIALLY DUE TO ITS
UNREALISTICALLY HIGH FORECAST SFC TEMPS INTO THE 90S IN SOME
AREAS. HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST...BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS.
UPDATED ZONES WILL BE SENT.
RC
&&
.SHORT TERM...
300 AM CDT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE LOOKS TO BRING A DRY DAY AFTER AN ACTIVE
PAST 48 HOURS. NORTHWEST FLOW DOES CONTINUE ALOFT AND A SUBTLE SHORT
WAVE IMPULSE OVER CENTRAL MN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OVER
NORTHEAST IL AND NORTHWEST IN THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH A DRY ENOUGH
ATMOSPHERE PREVENTS ANY MENTION OF A STRAY SHOWER IN THE FORECAST.
WITH MAINLY SUN AND AN ALREADY WARM AIR MASS...MIXING IS FORECAST TO
REACH TO AROUND 800MB THIS AFTERNOON. USING THIS AND GIVEN UPSTREAM
TEMPERATURES IN IA AND MO YESTERDAY...WOULD EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID
TO EVEN A FEW UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-80 MAY
BE KEPT A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER FROM THEIR FULL POTENTIAL GIVEN THE
WET GROUND. A WEAK LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BUT ONLY INCH
INLAND IN NORTHEAST IL AND A TAD MORESO IN NORTHWEST IN. HIGHS IN
THESE PLACES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S BEFORE A SLIGHT
AFTERNOON FALL.
THE NEXT STRONG NORTHERN STREAM JET MAXIMA WILL CARVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TONIGHT DRIVING A DEEP SURFACE LOW FOR JUNE INTO THE
NORTHERN LAKES. AN ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD PROVIDE
FORCING FOR SCATTERED/BROKEN LINE OF STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
MN/WI/LAKE MI LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WHILE THESE
STORMS SHOULD SLOWLY FADE IN INTENSITY AFTER SUNDOWN...SOME COULD
PROGRESS INTO NORTHERN IL AND NORTHWEST IN AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN THE
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW AS WELL AS LOW-LEVEL JET SUPPORT FOR SOME
REDEVELOPMENT. INCREASING SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL MAKE FOR A
MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS OF 66-70.
THE SYSTEM SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS INTO THE FORECAST AREA
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE PARENT TROUGH AND LOW ADVANCING
EASTWARD. BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION AND PARALLEL MID-LEVEL
FLOW WILL SLOW THE FRONT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THIS FEATURE WILL BE
IN THE FORECAST AREA DURING PEAK HEATING ON WEDNESDAY...AND A MEAN
OF GUIDANCE WOULD SUPPORT NEAR TO JUST SOUTH OF I-80. WHILE A SLIGHT
CAP IS FORECAST...INSTABILITY OF 1500-2500 J/KG IS FORECAST BY THE
GFS ALONG THE BOUNDARY /HANDLING TDS BETTER THAN THE NAM/...AND IF
WARM NOSE CAN BE OVERCOME SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD OCCUR WITH THE
CONVERGENT FLOW OF THE BOUNDARY. THE 500MB FLOW AROUND 40 KT MAY
SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZATION OF MORE PERSISTENT STORMS AND PROVIDES A
MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK. INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT AFTER
DARK MAY HELP ANY STORMS TO FESTER WITH SLOW PROPAGATIONS SPEEDS
FORECAST. WHILE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD NOT BE WHAT IT WAS THE
PAST TWO DAYS...HAVE COORDINATED WITH WPC AND ADJACENT OFFICES TO
BOOST QPF SOME BECAUSE OF THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF ANY STORMS AND POOLED
MOISTURE.
MTF
&&
.LONG TERM...
300 AM CDT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS PROBABLE IN THE CORN BELT/SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THIS TIME. THE FORECAST SYNOPTIC TO EVEN
LARGER SCALE PATTERN ON GLOBAL GUIDANCE FAVORS SUCH WITH 1.) CWA
UNDER NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE AND FREQUENT SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS RIDGING ALONG THIS...2.) CONTINUOUSLY WARM AND LIKELY OFTEN
UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE AND...3.) PWATS IN THE TOP TEN PERCENTILE
REGULARLY IN THIS TIME. SPEAKING TO THE LAST POINT...WITH THE FIRST
TROUGH THAT COMES INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SOME
OF THE MOISTURE FROM NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLANCA ENTERING THE SW
U.S. IS FORECAST TO BE STEERED INTO THE MIDWEST. SO WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THAT TRACK AS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH THE IMPULSE...AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE
RETURNING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. FOR THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...A
WELL-VERIFYING MODEL BLEND WAS GENERALLY USED. THIS LENDS ITSELF
TO A LOT OF CHANCES OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST...BUT THAT CONVEYS
THE PATTERN FAIRLY WELL AT THIS POINT...AND WILL GET REFINED IN
TIME.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...
* NONE.
KREIN
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND ACROSS THE
TERMINAL AIRSPACE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A LAKE BREEZE MAY
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS
LAKE BREEZE MAY BE CONFINED TO AREAS RIGHT ALONG THE LAKESHORE.
DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW WESTERLY
WINDS TO BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE LAKE BREEZES INLAND
PENETRATION. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN SPEED OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE
GRADIENT STRENGTHENS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
LOW.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS.
KREIN
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA. NORTHEAST-EAST WINDS.
FRIDAY...TSRA LIKELY. SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING WEST THROUGH THE
DAY THEN BECOMING NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA. NORTHEAST WINDS DURING THE
DAY...BECOMING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA. SOUTH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST.
MONDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA. WESTERLY WINDS.
KJB
&&
.MARINE...
305 AM CDT
CONDITIONS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DENSE
FOG...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE LAKE...THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY TODAY AS A RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND FIELD AND HIGH DEWPOINT
AIRMASS REMAIN OVER THE COLD LAKE WATERS. BECAUSE OF THIS I HAVE
EXTENDED THE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE LAKE
IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR BY THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE LAKE INTO TONIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES...AND THIS WILL LIKELY DRIVE ANY LINGERING FOG ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE LAKE.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OVER THE LAKE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW SHIFTS OVER SOUTHEASTERN
ONTARIO. THIS COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
LAKE TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
LAKE. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT OVER THE
LAKE LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT
WINDS. HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN LATER IN THE WEEK AROUND FRIDAY. THIS WILL
SYSTEM LOOKS TO PRODUCE MORE THUNDERSTORMS...FOG AND SOME HIGHER
WINDS.
PERIODS OF FOG AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE AND
VERY MOIST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ777-LMZ779 UNTIL 3 PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1137 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 856 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015
ONCE THE FEW REMAINING THUNDERSTORMS OVER EAST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS,
DRIVEN BY AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND WANING DIURNAL INSTABILITY,
DISSIPATE AND/OR MOVE OFF TO THE EAST, QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND
ONLY REQUIRES A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO THE NIGHTTIME HOURLY TRENDS
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015
BAND OF CLOUDS CURRENTLY ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND PUSH INTO
INDIANA BEFORE SUNSET. MEANWHILE FURTHER NORTHWEST...A SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH EVIDENT ON 19Z/1PM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER EASTERN IOWA IS
BEGINNING TO TRIGGER A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. HIGH-RES MODELS SHOW THIS CONVECTION
EXPANDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
BASED ON HRRR FORECAST...WILL INCLUDE LOW CHANCE POPS NORTH OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR THROUGH ABOUT 02Z/9PM WHEN WAVE BEGINS TO EXIT THE
REGION AND DAYTIME INSTABILITY WANES. AFTER THAT...EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL RESULT IN WARM, SUMMERLIKE
TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID-WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
80S FOR TUESDAY. HOWEVER, BY WEDNESDAY INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS/RIDGING WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TOWARD THE
LOWER 90S.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
COULD PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS NORTH OF I-74 FROM
NORTHEAST OF PEORIA TO DANVILLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND GENERAL FLATTENING OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH CENTRAL IL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.
MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AS WELL AS AN ABUNDANT SOURCE OF
MOISTURE WILL TAKE AIM AT CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT ONLY WILL GULF MOISTURE BE PLENTIFUL BUT REMNANT
MOISTURE FROM PACIFIC TROPICAL STORM BLANCA COULD SET THE STAGE FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS SINCE MANY RIVERS AND CREEKS ARE ALREADY
FLOODED FROM LAST NIGHTS DELUGE.
WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. FROM THE
END OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL IL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE HEAVY RAINFALL ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015
QUIET AVIATION WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ILLINOIS TERMINALS THROUGH THE 06Z TAF VALID TIME. CLOUD COVER
WILL BE MINIMAL, WITH WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT WESTERLY.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BAK
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...BAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
712 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015
COLD FRONT WAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND CONTINUED TO MOVE SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD. AT 3 PM IN OUR NORTHERN CWA TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE
MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S IN OUR FAR NW CWA. SOUTH
OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES WERE IN THE MID 90S TO 100
IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA.
THE HI-RES HRRR MODEL FIRES UP THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. SBCAPES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MORE THAN 5000 J/KG BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS VERY
WEAK. BUFKIT SHOWS THE CIN DIMINISHING BY MID AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE TO OVER 1.8 INCHES. THESE PARAMETERS
SUGGEST THE STRONGER STORMS WOULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
TORRENTIAL RAINS. WITH FREEZING LEVELS AT 13K THE THREAT OF LARGE
HAIL IS LOW. THE NAM FIRES UP THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING SO IS
LATER THAN THE HRRR BUT FOR NOW THE FORECAST HINGES ON THE MESO
MODEL. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015
FORECAST FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
TONIGHT...FRONT WILL STALL IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA THIS EVENING AS IT
RUNS INTO RIDGING ALOFT THAT EXTENDS FROM TX TO MO. AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT THIS FRONT WILL BEGIN
LIFTING SLOWLY BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD
WITH THE FRONT AND ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ALSO INCREASES OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
AND HEAVY RAINFALL. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
60S NORTH TO AROUND 70 SOUTH.
THURSDAY...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT INCREASES AS A SURFACE
CYCLONE TRACKS INTO WESTERN IA BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE WARM
FRONT LIFTING INTO OUR NORTHERN CWA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR BECOMES
STRONG (50 KT) DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SBCAPES INCREASE TO
2500-3000 J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY ESPECIALLY IN OUR
NORTH CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT...AND THEN SPREADING INTO OUR
WESTERN CWA AS THE STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR LIKELY BUT THE MAIN TORNADO THREAT AT THIS
TIME LOOKS TO BE TO OUR WEST CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW AND TRIPLE
POINT. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS OVER OUR ENTIRE CWA.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S ALONG HIGHWAY
20 TO NEAR 90 IN OUR FAR SOUTH. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S IN OUR FAR SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE ACTIVE
PATTERN AND ROUND OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH
THE PATTERN HAS SHIFTED NORTH INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THE LONG TERM AT
LEAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EVERY DAY FOR THE
EXCEPTION OF FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WITH FORECAST QPF AMOUNTS
WE MAY START TO SEE SOME HYDRO IMPACTS ON OUR WATERWAYS.
THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH A SFC CYCLONE PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN CWA. WARM FRONT
SHOULD BE JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. 1000-700 AND H85 MOIST TRANS VECS
PEG AREAS ACROSS SOUTHERN MN INTO CENTRAL WI. THIS AREA WILL BE THE
AREA FOR THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER WITH THE CAPE
ACROSS OUR AREA ALONG WITH HIGH PWATS OF CLOSE TO 2 INCHES...
SUGGESTS THAT HEAVY RAIN COULD FALL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT. AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD
THREAT COULD EXIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA THURSDAY EVENING INTO
FRIDAY AM.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTERS IDEAS ON THE
SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE AREA QUICKLY FRIDAY DURING THE DAY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A DRY FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO NORMAL THEN THE FLOW TURNS ZONAL AND EVEN SW. A SERIES OF
WAVES WILL LEAD TO THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. AS WE
GET CLOSER TO EACH OF EVENTS...THE MESOSCALE FEATURES WILL BECOME
BETTER FORECAST AND DETAILS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 709 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015
SCT STORMS ARE FORECAST TO FORM ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY SFC
BOUNDARY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN IA/WEST-CENTRAL IL. FAIRLY GOOD
CHANCE FOR TS ACTIVITY AT KBRL SO MENTIONED A PERIOD OF TSRA
BETWEEN 04Z-08Z/THURSDAY. AREAS IMPACTED BY TS WILL EXPERIENCE
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR CIGS/VSBYS.
AFTER ROUGHLY 06Z/THURSDAY CHANCES FOR STORMS SPREAD NORTHWARD
BUT AT THIS TIME JUST INCLUDED VCTS AT KCID AND KMLI OVERNIGHT.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THURSDAY SHRA/TS ARE LIKELY AT KDBQ AND BECOME
PROGRESSIVELY MORE SCT/ISOLATED TOWARD THE SOUTH. PERIODS OF MVFR
AND BRIEF IFR ARE MOST LIKELY AT KDBQ AND KCID THURSDAY AFTN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015
WITH WPC FORECAST OF CLOSE TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN TO OUR NORTH...IT
LOOKS AS THOUGH WE MAY SEE SOME FLOODING ISSUES ON OUR RIVERS AS THE
THE WATER IS ROUTED INTO OUR AREA. CONTINGENCY FORECASTS SUGGEST
THAT SOME OF THE SITES COULD REACH FLOOD STAGE IF THE CURRENT
FORECAST HOLDS TRUE. AS A RESULT...CUSTOMERS WITH INTERESTS AROUND
THE RIVERS SHOULD PAY ATTENTION FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING IN THE NEXT
FEW DAYS TO WEEK.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...UTTECH
HYDROLOGY...GIBBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1219 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
AN UPPER TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST WITH A
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. TROPICAL STORM BLANCA
SITS OFF SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA. AT THE SURFACE...CLOSER TO HOME
WEAK SURFACE FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S THIS MORNING UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
TEMPERATURES REMAIN A FEW DEGREES AHEAD OF YESTERDAY. WINDS ARE
OUT OF THE WEST/SOUTHWEST WHICH IS A DRY/HOT FLOW. THE RAP RUNS
YESTERDAY MORNING WERE REALLY GOOD WITH THE HIGHS...BETTER THAN
ANY OF THE OTHER RUNS. WENT WITH THAT FOR THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
RESULTED IN WARMER HIGHS FOR TODAY.
KRC
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY WARM TO HOT
TEMPERATURES AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES TODAY BEFORE FLATTENING OUT
AS THE REMNANTS OF BLANCA COME ON SHORE AND MOVE TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. AFTER UNDER CUTTING HIGHS YESTERDAY...HAVE
INCREASED HIGHS SLIGHTLY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH LOW TO MID 90S
TODAY AND EVEN HIGHS APPROACHING THE CENTURY MARK IN CENTRAL
KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE FIRST OF MANY DISTURBANCES WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL SPARK THUNDERSTORMS...DEVELOPING
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND MOVING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THE CURRENT
GUIDANCE HAS MOVED THE BEST LIFT NORTHWARD INTO NEBRASKA...BUT
CHANCES STILL RESIDE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN KANSAS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
BY THURSDAY AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES AND THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL DEEPEN WITH
A SURFACE FRONT DEVELOPING BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH 20 TO 30 MPH
WINDS LIKELY AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S SOUTH OF THE FRONT. BY
THURSDAY NIGHT THE DISTURBANCE THAT WILL IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WHICH MAY LEND SUPPORT WITH
THE FRONT AND THE PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT
THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT DURING THE DAY FRIDAY THOUGH.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE PLAGUED WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. A
MORE POTENT DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH THE FRONT WILL HELP TO FIRE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE LACKING...AND SHEAR WILL
BE AVAILABLE EARLIER IN THE EVENT...CANNOT RULE OUT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.
THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...AS WILL THE FRONT...REMOVING THE BOUNDARY FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. DAYTIME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE BEST CHANCES AGAIN AT NIGHT AS MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INCREASES. THIS REPEATS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS YET
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH THE RAIN
SHOWERS...HIGHS IN THE 80S.
BILLING WRIGHT
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
WINDS HAVE COME AROUND TO SOUTHWEST WITH SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
AT 7K FEET. THESE SAME CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WHEN WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-20 KNOTS AFTER 16Z.
PREVAILING VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
KRC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 99 69 96 71 / 10 0 0 30
HUTCHINSON 99 70 97 71 / 0 0 10 40
NEWTON 98 68 95 70 / 0 0 0 30
ELDORADO 97 68 93 70 / 10 0 0 20
WINFIELD-KWLD 98 68 94 71 / 10 10 0 20
RUSSELL 100 69 98 69 / 0 0 10 50
GREAT BEND 99 69 97 69 / 10 0 10 50
SALINA 100 69 97 71 / 0 0 10 40
MCPHERSON 99 68 97 70 / 0 0 0 40
COFFEYVILLE 96 68 92 71 / 10 10 0 10
CHANUTE 95 69 93 70 / 10 10 0 10
IOLA 95 68 93 70 / 10 10 0 10
PARSONS-KPPF 95 69 92 71 / 10 10 0 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1135 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
AN UPPER TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST WITH A
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. TROPICAL STORM BLANCA
SITS OFF SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA. AT THE SURFACE...CLOSER TO HOME
WEAK SURFACE FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S THIS MORNING UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
TEMPERATURES REMAIN A FEW DEGREES AHEAD OF YESTERDAY. WINDS ARE
OUT OF THE WEST/SOUTHWEST WHICH IS A DRY/HOT FLOW. THE RAP RUNS
YESTERDAY MORNING WERE REALLY GOOD WITH THE HIGHS...BETTER THAN
ANY OF THE OTHER RUNS. WENT WITH THAT FOR THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
RESULTED IN WARMER HIGHS FOR TODAY.
KRC
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY WARM TO HOT
TEMPERATURES AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES TODAY BEFORE FLATTENING OUT
AS THE REMNANTS OF BLANCA COME ON SHORE AND MOVE TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. AFTER UNDER CUTTING HIGHS YESTERDAY...HAVE
INCREASED HIGHS SLIGHTLY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH LOW TO MID 90S
TODAY AND EVEN HIGHS APPROACHING THE CENTURY MARK IN CENTRAL
KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE FIRST OF MANY DISTURBANCES WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL SPARK THUNDERSTORMS...DEVELOPING
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND MOVING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THE CURRENT
GUIDANCE HAS MOVED THE BEST LIFT NORTHWARD INTO NEBRASKA...BUT
CHANCES STILL RESIDE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN KANSAS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
BY THURSDAY AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES AND THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL DEEPEN WITH
A SURFACE FRONT DEVELOPING BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH 20 TO 30 MPH
WINDS LIKELY AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S SOUTH OF THE FRONT. BY
THURSDAY NIGHT THE DISTURBANCE THAT WILL IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WHICH MAY LEND SUPPORT WITH
THE FRONT AND THE PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT
THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT DURING THE DAY FRIDAY THOUGH.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE PLAGUED WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. A
MORE POTENT DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH THE FRONT WILL HELP TO FIRE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE LACKING...AND SHEAR WILL
BE AVAILABLE EARLIER IN THE EVENT...CANNOT RULE OUT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.
THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...AS WILL THE FRONT...REMOVING THE BOUNDARY FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. DAYTIME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE BEST CHANCES AGAIN AT NIGHT AS MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INCREASES. THIS REPEATS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS YET
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH THE RAIN
SHOWERS...HIGHS IN THE 80S.
BILLING WRIGHT
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A GRADUALLY WIND SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CAN EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING.
KETCHAM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 99 69 96 71 / 10 0 0 30
HUTCHINSON 99 70 97 71 / 0 0 10 40
NEWTON 98 68 95 70 / 0 0 0 30
ELDORADO 97 68 93 70 / 10 0 0 20
WINFIELD-KWLD 98 68 94 71 / 10 10 0 20
RUSSELL 100 69 98 69 / 0 0 10 50
GREAT BEND 99 69 97 69 / 10 0 10 50
SALINA 100 69 97 71 / 0 0 10 40
MCPHERSON 99 68 97 70 / 0 0 0 40
COFFEYVILLE 96 68 92 71 / 10 10 0 10
CHANUTE 95 69 93 70 / 10 10 0 10
IOLA 95 68 93 70 / 10 10 0 10
PARSONS-KPPF 95 69 92 71 / 10 10 0 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
110 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
.DISCUSSION...
18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISO/SCT SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY DIGGING S ACROSS
THE LOWER MS VALLEY HAS GENERATED AN MCS OVER MS/SE LA EARLIER
THIS MORNING. NEW AREA OF SHRA/TSRA HAS DEVELOPED JUST E OF THE
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER...LIKELY AIDED FROM THE REMNANT OUT...MOVING W
AROUND 15 MPH. THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO THE WEST OR
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...CONTINUED TEMPO GROUPS FOR TSRA &
MVFR VSBY/CEILING FROM 19-23Z FOR ARA/LFT...20-24Z FOR AEX...22-02Z
FOR LCH...AND 23-03Z FOR BPT...IF AREA HOLDS TOGETHER THIS EVENING
AS THE NAM12 & HRRR SUGGESTS. LATER THIS EVENING...REMAINING
INSTABILITY MAY KEEP VCSH OVERNIGHT INTO WED MORNING.
DML
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 958 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015/
UPDATE...
WILL BE UPDATING TO INCREASE THE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS MAINLY SOUTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COMBINED WITH
SEA BREEZE AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE SHOULD AID IN THE INITIATION
OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.
ALSO COOLED TEMPERATURES WITH RAIN COOLED AIR AS WELL.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015/
DISCUSSION...
09/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
AVIATION...
A FEW SHRA/TSRA BEGINNING TO DEVELOP NR THE COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING WHILE FURTHER NORTH...ISLTD TO SCT CONVECTION HAS BEEN
DEVELOPING/MOVING SOUTH AS ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A MID AND UPR
LVL TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA. SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING AS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACRS THE
AREA...WITH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE BETTER THAN YESTERDAY
MAINLY NR THE LA TERMINALS. THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO SE
TX SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION MORE ISLTD NR BPT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH LT SWLY WINDS. CONVECTION EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH SCT/BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. 24
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015/
SYNOPSIS...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
OLD MEXICO...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST. A
SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS FEATURE IS NOTED FROM ROUGHLY THE
ARKLATEX TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY...AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. 50H HEIGHTS ARE
SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR KLCH AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS HELPING TO
WEAKEN AND SHIFT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST. REALLY GOOD
MOISTURE WAS NOTED ON THE 09/00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING...WITH PWAT
OVER 2 INCHES AND MEAN RH OVER 70 PERCENT. HOWEVER...SINCE THEN
GPS-MET INTEGRATED PWAT AND SATELLITE BLENDED TOTAL PWAT SHOWS
VALUES LOWER AND IN THE 1.8 RANGE...STILL ABOVE THE JUNE NORM. ONE
OTHER NOTE...THE SATELLITE BLENDED TOTAL PWAT STILL SHOWS A LARGE
POOL OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN WITH PWAT
VALUES BETWEEN 2.1 AND 2.5 INCHES.
RUA
DISCUSSION...
IN THE SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO LOSE ITS
GRIP AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL LEAVE
BEHIND A NORTHERLY CONTINENTAL FLOW IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS. THIS WILL KEEP THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE CUT OFF FROM THE
FORECAST AREA. STILL...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS
WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AROUND TO JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS...AND RANGING FROM 1.6 TO 1.75
INCHES WITH MEAN RH IN THE 50 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE. ALSO...WITH THE
NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS...THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP SEA
BREEZE CONFINED CLOSER TO THE COAST AND THE SOUTHERN ZONES. LOOKS
LIKE TYPICAL DAYTIME HEATING TYPE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AND WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY NEAR MESO SCALE BOUNDARIES...SEA
BREEZE/OUTFLOWS/ATCHAFALAYA BASIN CONVERGENCE. THROUGH
THURSDAY...THE BEST TIME TO SEE THE CONVECTION WILL BE LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WEAK SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY
SO DO NOT EXPECT ALOT OF STRONG ACTIVITY...MAY BE JUST A COUPLE OF
PULSE TYPE STORMS IF BOUNDARY CONVERGENCE TAKES PLACE THAT COULD
PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER...SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS MAY
PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.
IN THE LONG TERM...A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND EASTERN GULF BY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OFF OF FLORIDA WILL EXPAND WESTWARD...PUSHING
THIS WEAKNESS TO THE WEST AND BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
OVER THE WESTERN GULF BY FRIDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND SURFACE FEATURE WILL DEVELOP FROM THE EASTERN ROCKIES
DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE INTERACTION OF THESE
FEATURES...WILL ALLOW A STRENGTHENING AND DEEPENING OF THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...THAT WILL LIKELY TAP
INTO THE TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND FUNNEL
IT UP OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON INCREASE TO BETWEEN
2 AND 2.25 INCHES WITH MEAN RH OVER 80 PERCENT. THIS TROPICAL LIKE
AIRMASS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS IS TYPICAL WITH
THESE AIR MASSES...WILL NOT TAKE MUCH HEATING TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY BE ONGOING DURING THE NIGHT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS INTO
THE COASTAL AREA...WITH IT EXPANDING NORTHWARD DURING THE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE POSSIBLY DECREASING DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...WITH THE PROCESS THEN STARTING OVER DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...AND EXPECTED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD BE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
IN THE FAR EXTENDED...SOME DIFFERENCES AS TO WHEN THE PATTERN WILL
CHANGE. THE GFS KEEPS THE WEAKNESS AND THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF BUILDING
AND STRENGTHENING AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF SOUTH
THAT WOULD PUSH THE DEEP MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. AT THE
END OF THE FORECAST...WILL STAY CLOSE TO SUPERBLEND WHICH CALLS
FOR A GRADUAL DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES.
RUA
MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS HELPING TO
PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS AS THE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY WASHING OUT OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WELL NORTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS. THUS...THE
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ROUGHLY
THURSDAY...WITH LIGHT...MAINLY SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND LOW SEAS.
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER THE EASTERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST
OF FLORIDA...WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF. THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND HELP BUILD
SEAS. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION MAY BE NEEDED BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION AND BORDERLINE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS A SURGE OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE OVERTAKES THE REGION. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL
CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAINFALL REDUCING
VISIBILITIES.
RUA
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 72 91 71 89 / 20 40 20 40
LCH 74 91 74 89 / 30 40 20 40
LFT 73 89 73 88 / 30 50 30 50
BPT 74 92 74 89 / 20 30 20 30
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1136 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
.DISCUSSION...
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TODAY...AS
THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO RETREAT SWWD INTO W TX AND A WEAK
FRONT LINGERS ACROSS PARTS OF OUR REGION. HAVE MADE A FEW
ADJUSTMENTS TO RAISE MAX TEMPS OVER E TX BASED UPON CURRENT
OBS AND EXPECTED PERSISTENCE. OTHERWISE...WILL LEAVE AS-IS.
UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY. /12/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015/
AVIATION...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS WILL BE A FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. ALREADY SEEING SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS ATTM. FOLLOWING THE HRRR OUTPUT...COULD SEE VCTS
ACROSS JUST ABOUT ALL TERMINAL SITES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
ACTIVITY LIKELY DIMINISHING LATER THIS EVENING. HAVE TRIED TO
COVER THIS WITH VCTS MENTION AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH ANY TEMPO TSRA
EXCEPT AT THE ELD TERMINAL WHERE TSRA IS CLOSE THIS MORNING.
13
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SSEWD ACROSS THE
SRN PLAINS TOWARDS THE GULF COAST TODAY. THIS TROUGH HAS PROVIDED
JUST ENOUGH VERTICAL ASCENT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS EARLY MORNING ALONG A WEAK FRONT OVER SRN AR.
TSTMS HAVE SHOWN SIGNS OF DEVELOPING BACK TO THE WEST OVER THE
LAST COUPLE OF HRS. SEVERAL OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION SHORT-TERM
MODELS INDICATE THE MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME TODAY
MAKING THE FRONT MORE DEFINED. THEREFORE...THE FRONT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING TODAY. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD
BE LOW BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME GUSTY WINDS. CONVECTION SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING HRS WITH THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING.
SEVERAL OF THE MODELS ARE RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS THROUGH THURSDAY. REMNANTS OF THE FRONT
WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA AND WHAT IS LEFT OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD BE JUST OFF THE SRN LA COAST. THIS SHOULD STILL
SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA BUT SUBSIDENCE FROM UPPER RIDGING WILL LIKELY KEEP
MOST LOCATIONS DRY.
MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN CHANCES SHOULD RETURN BEGINNING ON FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT RETURNS AS THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER W TX BREAKS DOWN AND AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
CNTRL PLAINS. AT THE SFC...SELY FLOW FROM THE GULF WILL INCREASE
AS A SFC TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS AND A SFC HIGH BUILDS
OVER THE SE CONUS. A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE WELL NW OF US...BUT
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AREAWIDE FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND AND CONTINUING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. /09/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 94 72 93 72 / 20 10 30 10
MLU 92 71 92 71 / 30 20 30 10
DEQ 93 69 93 70 / 10 10 10 10
TXK 93 71 93 72 / 20 10 10 10
ELD 91 71 92 71 / 30 10 20 10
TYR 94 72 92 72 / 20 10 10 10
GGG 95 71 92 72 / 20 10 20 10
LFK 95 73 91 72 / 30 20 30 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
536 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
.AVIATION...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS WILL BE A FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. ALREADY SEEING SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS ATTM. FOLLOWING THE HRRR OUTPUT...COULD SEE VCTS
ACROSS JUST ABOUT ALL TERMINAL SITES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
ACTIVITY LIKELY DIMINISHING LATER THIS EVENING. HAVE TRIED TO
COVER THIS WITH VCTS MENTION AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH ANY TEMPO TSRA
EXCEPT AT THE ELD TERMINAL WHERE TSRA IS CLOSE THIS MORNING.
13
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SSEWD ACROSS THE
SRN PLAINS TOWARDS THE GULF COAST TODAY. THIS TROUGH HAS PROVIDED
JUST ENOUGH VERTICAL ASCENT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS EARLY MORNING ALONG A WEAK FRONT OVER SRN AR.
TSTMS HAVE SHOWN SIGNS OF DEVELOPING BACK TO THE WEST OVER THE
LAST COUPLE OF HRS. SEVERAL OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION SHORT-TERM
MODELS INDICATE THE MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME TODAY
MAKING THE FRONT MORE DEFINED. THEREFORE...THE FRONT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING TODAY. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD
BE LOW BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME GUSTY WINDS. CONVECTION SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING HRS WITH THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING.
SEVERAL OF THE MODELS ARE RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS THROUGH THURSDAY. REMNANTS OF THE FRONT
WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA AND WHAT IS LEFT OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD BE JUST OFF THE SRN LA COAST. THIS SHOULD STILL
SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA BUT SUBSIDENCE FROM UPPER RIDGING WILL LIKELY KEEP
MOST LOCATIONS DRY.
MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN CHANCES SHOULD RETURN BEGINNING ON FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT RETURNS AS THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER W TX BREAKS DOWN AND AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
CNTRL PLAINS. AT THE SFC...SELY FLOW FROM THE GULF WILL INCREASE
AS A SFC TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS AND A SFC HIGH BUILDS
OVER THE SE CONUS. A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE WELL NW OF US...BUT
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AREAWIDE FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND AND CONTINUING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. /09/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 93 72 93 72 / 20 10 30 10
MLU 92 71 92 71 / 30 20 30 10
DEQ 93 69 93 70 / 10 10 10 10
TXK 93 71 93 72 / 20 10 10 10
ELD 91 71 92 71 / 30 10 20 10
TYR 94 72 92 72 / 20 10 10 10
GGG 94 71 92 72 / 20 10 20 10
LFK 92 73 91 72 / 30 20 30 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
09/13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
944 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF
PITTSBURGH AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
945PM UPDATE...STILL WRESTLING WITH POPS AND HOW MUCH OF THE
ACTIVITY TO THE NORTHWEST WILL MAKE IT INTO THE AREA. FRONT MAKING
VERY LITTLE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS AS THERE IS NO PUSH IN THE UPPER
LEVELS TO GET FRONT ROLLING. A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE WILL SHOVE THE
FRONT JUST INTO THE NORTHERN REACHES OF MY AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WILL KEEP ALL POPS IN THE NORTH RIGHT NEAR THE BOUNDARY. TEMPS
HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO LATEST LAMP NUMBERS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SLIGHT RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AS A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE AREA. WHILE THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING WAS
VERY DRY...UPSTREAM MID LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES ARE MUCH HIGHER AND
EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A MID LEVEL LOW
TRANSITIONS ACROSS ONTARIO AND INTO QUEBEC AND WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
STRENGTHENS. LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW FAIRLY THIN CAPE
PROFILES BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT STILL SEE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS TO GO SEVERE...MAINLY DUE TO
WINDS WITH DCAPE VALUES ANTICIPATED BETWEEN 1000-1300 J/KG.
SCATTERED SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT WITH MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THERE IS NO
SEVERE THREAT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED TO TURN SOUTHWEST LATER THURSDAY PUSHING
THE FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FRIDAY IS PROGGED TO KEEP SHOWER/STORM CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST THOUGH WITH LACK OF A TRIGGER KEPT ONLY LOW POPS. THE
NEXT ORGANIZED SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED FOR A SATURDAY PASSAGE...ALONG
WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...WITH CONTINUED SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES. WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE
PASSAGE OF THE SATURDAY FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS AN EASTERN CONUS RIDGE
BUILDS...LEAVING WEAK QUASIZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
UPPER OHIO REGIONS. CHANCE PRECIP NUMBERS WILL HAVE TO BE
MAINTAINED GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF SHORTWAVE PROGRESSION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PERIMETER OF THE RIDGE...I.E. THE IMMEDIATE AREA. WPC
GUIDANCE GENERALLY DEPICTED THE SITUATION WELL AND FEW CHANGES
WERE NEEDED.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A GENERAL VFR FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK FRONT WILL DIP
DOWN ACROSS NORTHERN PORTS OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL PROVIDE THE RISK
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AND LOWER CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...THE RISK IS
BECOMING LESS LIKELY AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS STABLE. MODELS ARE
HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG FORMING RIGHT
AROUND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT AS IT STALLS ACROSS THE NORTH.
.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS ANTICIPATED WITH A
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY COLD FRONT.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
834 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF
PITTSBURGH AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
830PM UPDATE...ATMOSPHERE STILL STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP ANY
CONVECTION. COMPLEX HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN IL AND IN
WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER/STORMS EXTENDING FURTHER WEST INTO NW
OHIO. THESE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED RIGHT ALONG THE SAGGING FRONT
AND JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE. THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND A STABLE ATMOSPHERE HAS PREVENTED ANY DEVELOPMENT IN
MY AREA. THIS CAN EASILY BE OBSERVED WITH THE LATEST SAT PIC WHICH
SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER. CONTINUE TO PUSH POPS
BACK AND KEPT THEM FURTHER NORTH...RELYING HEAVILY ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS AND LATEST HIRES MODEL OUTPUT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SLIGHT RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AS A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE AREA. WHILE THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING WAS
VERY DRY...UPSTREAM MID LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES ARE MUCH HIGHER AND
EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A MID LEVEL LOW
TRANSITIONS ACROSS ONTARIO AND INTO QUEBEC AND WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
STRENGTHENS. LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW FAIRLY THIN CAPE
PROFILES BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT STILL SEE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS TO GO SEVERE...MAINLY DUE TO
WINDS WITH DCAPE VALUES ANTICIPATED BETWEEN 1000-1300 J/KG.
SCATTERED SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT WITH MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THERE IS NO
SEVERE THREAT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED TO TURN SOUTHWEST LATER THURSDAY PUSHING
THE FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FRIDAY IS PROGGED TO KEEP SHOWER/STORM CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST THOUGH WITH LACK OF A TRIGGER KEPT ONLY LOW POPS. THE
NEXT ORGANIZED SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED FOR A SATURDAY PASSAGE...ALONG
WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...WITH CONTINUED SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES. WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE
PASSAGE OF THE SATURDAY FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS AN EASTERN CONUS RIDGE
BUILDS...LEAVING WEAK QUASIZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
UPPER OHIO REGIONS. CHANCE PRECIP NUMBERS WILL HAVE TO BE
MAINTAINED GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF SHORTWAVE PROGRESSION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PERIMETER OF THE RIDGE...I.E. THE IMMEDIATE AREA. WPC
GUIDANCE GENERALLY DEPICTED THE SITUATION WELL AND FEW CHANGES
WERE NEEDED.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A GENERAL VFR FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK FRONT WILL DIP
DOWN ACROSS NORTHERN PORTS OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL PROVIDE THE RISK
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AND LOWER CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...THE RISK IS
BECOMING LESS LIKELY AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS STABLE. MODELS ARE
HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG FORMING RIGHT
AROUND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT AS IT STALLS ACROSS THE NORTH.
.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS ANTICIPATED WITH A
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY COLD FRONT.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
349 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015
A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVER NWRN ONTARIO WILL MOVE
ACROSS NRN ONTARIO TONIGHT AND WED. A SECOND SHORTWAVE OVER THE
MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER WILL DIVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AT
THE SAME TIME THAT A SFC FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
PRECIP DEVELOPED OVER MN AND FAR NWRN WI THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...BUT DISSIPATED BEFORE IT MOVED WEST INTO THE CWA. IT
APPEARS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS TOO LOW AND CIN TOO HIGH FOR
MEANINGFUL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITHOUT MORE SIGNIFICANT FORCING.
THAT FORCING IS EXPECTED TO BE MET AS THE SHORTWAVE AND FRONT MOVE
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW MLCAPES
DECREASING WITH A LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT
THEN INCREASING TO 700-1200J/KG OVER THE WRN HALF OF UPPER MI AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES IN. MODELS ALSO SHOW DCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF
1000J/KG OVER THE WRN HALF. THE SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO INCREASE THE
SHEAR...WITH STRONG 0-1KM BULK SHEAR OF 25-35KTS AND BOTH 0-3KM AND
0-6KM SHEAR OF 40-50KTS. CONDITIONS APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS AND GOOD COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OR TWO MOVING THROUGH (OR AT LEAST ALONG THE
EDGES) OF THE CWA. WHILE THE FORECAST IS EXTREMELY DEPENDENT ON
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND PROPAGATION...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS OF
THE HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE /ESPECIALLY THE HRRR AND NAM-DNG)...AND
EVEN THE LOWER-RES GFS AND ECMWF...SEEM TO BE ON A REASONABLE TRACK
OF SHOWING A CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING OVER FAR NRN LAKE SUPERIOR
(CLOSER TO THE MAIN SHORTWAVE) AND ANOTHER MOVING ESE THROUGH THE
U.P. PARALLEL TO THE CAPE GRADIENT. CONSIDERING EXPECTED STORM MODE
BEING A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AND AFOREMENTIONED INGREDIENTS...THINK
THAT DAMAGING WIND IS THE GREATEST THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE
STORMS...WITH THE SECONDARY THREAT GIVEN SHEAR AND INSTABILITY AND
MAYBE A WEAK TORNADO IF ANY FAVORABLE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR.
AGAIN...THE SEVERE THREAT IS VERY CONDITIONAL ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND
EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION. ANY CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES SHOULD BE
DECAYING AS THEY MOVE TO THE E...SHOULD SEVERE THREAT IS LOWER OVER
THE ERN U.P.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE W ON WED WILL LEAD TO CLEARING
CONDITIONS...WITH HIGHS IN HE 60S AND 70S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015
FOG OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE ON THE DIMINISHING TREND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS THE SFC LOW ACROSS W QUEBEC EXITS E AND THE SFC TROUGH
EXTENDING W THROUGH N LAKE SUPERIOR AT 00Z THURSDAY SLOWLY EDGES E.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...THE SFC LOW OVER KS AT 12Z THURSDAY WILL PUSH TO THE S
WI/IN BORDER AT 18Z FRIDAY. THICK CLOUDS WILL PUSH OVER THE
AREA...HELPING TO KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING MUCH PAST THE MID TO UPPER
60S /WITH EVEN SOME 50S RIGHT FROM THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA
E THROUGH WHITEFISH POINT/. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY RAIN OVER
S CENTRAL UPPER MI DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...AT SOME POINT BETWEEN 09-
20Z. LOWER CONFIDENCE REMAINS...AS THE MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY BETWEEN
NO PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA /12Z NAM/ TO THE ECMWF AND GFS WHICH HAVE
OVER AN INCH OVER FAR S CENTRAL UPPER MI NEAR MNM. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A MODEL BLENDED SOLUTION...WITH OVER HALF AN INCH OF RAIN
POSSIBLE S OF A LINE FROM IMT TO ESC...AND OVER 1IN NEAR MNM. WITH
DRIER E WINDS AT THE SFC MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND FAR N UPPER MI
WILL REMAIN EITHER DRY OR WITH A WHOLE LOT LESS PRECIP. EXPECT A
QUICK CUT OFF AS THE SFC LOW ELONGATES ACROSS LOWER MI AND THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE 500MB
RIDGE OVER THE MID MS VALLEY WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT...AND LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY.
EXPECT INCREASED SW FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF THE 500MB LOW OVER S
CENTRAL CANADA SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...AS THE LOW SHIFTS NE INTO
HUDSON BAY MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT IT WILL MAINLY MEAN ZONAL FLOW. WHILE
THE CANADIAN IS MORE TO THE S AND QUICKER TO BRING THE SFC
LOW/TROUGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE SLOWER
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS LOOK MORE REASONABLE. WILL KEEP THE CWA RAIN
FREE UNTIL THE DAYTIME HOURS SUNDAY. TS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE 12Z GFS LOOKS TO HAVE SHIFTED THE BEST
MOISTURE/STRONG THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TO OUR S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015
MAIN HAZARD DURING THE TAF PERIOD IS WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT. A GREAT
DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE TIMING...COVERAGE AND SEVERITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS. BEST GUESS IS THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OVER KIWD
AND KCMX STARTING AROUND 01Z WED AND AROUND 02Z AND KSAW. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE...BUT THAT WILL DEPEND ON OTHER
FACTORS THAT WILL TAKE SHAPE AFTER THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER MN/WI.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015
WINDS WILL REMAIN 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOG
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LAKE INTO WED AS A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS
MOVES OVER THE COLD GREAT LAKES WATER AND REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
336 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 512 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM S
CNTRL CANADA INTO THE WRN LAKES BTWN A RIDGE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES
AND A TROUGH FROM QUEBEC INTO THE CNTRL AND ERN GREAT LAKES. 310K
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO SRN MANITOBA
SUPPORTED AN AREA OF SHRA/TSRA INTO FAR NE NORTH DAKOTA. AT THE
SFC...LOW PRES WAS LOCATED OVER CNTRL MANITOBA WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING THROUGH SE SASK INTO NRN MONTANA. OTHERWISE...WEAK MID
LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING INTO THE NRN LAKES HAS BROUGHT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS ALLOWED PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP...MAINLY OVER THE EAST.
SATELLITE TRENDS AND SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL
BATCH OF CLOUDS/PCPN WITH THE AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WOULD MOVE
INTO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE INFLOW
WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THE PCPN WILL HOLD
TOGETHER. HOWEVER...IF THE THICKER CLOUDS REMAIN...REDUCING SFC
HEATING...MLCAPE VALUES MAY ONLY CLIMB TO AROUND 400-800 J/KG. SOME
ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE AND
STRENGTH MAY BE LIMITED.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER STORMS AND HEAVIER PCPN WILL ARRIVE BY
LATE EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT AND LOW PRES APPROACHES ALONG WITH A
PERIOD OF MODERATE TO STRONG 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV WITH THE SHRTWV
AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE LEFT EXIT OF THE 250-300 MB JET MOVING
INTO NRN MN. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER NE MN WILL LIKELY INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AND ORGANIZATION AND QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE NW WI AND W
UPPER MI. MLCAPE/MUCAPE VALUES TO 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE ALONG WITH
0-6KM/0-1KM SHEAR OF 40-50 KNOTS/20-30 KNOTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...PER SPC SLIGHT RISK OVER
THE ENTIRE CWA. ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS MAY BE A THREAT WITH THE AREA OF HIGHER DCAPE VALUES AOA
1K J/KG EXTENDING INTO SW UPPER MI. EXPECT THE AREA OF TSRA TO EXIT
THE CWA QUICKLY BTWN 06Z-09Z AS THE SHORTWAVE AND FRONT MOVE THROUGH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015
FOG OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE ON THE DIMINISHING TREND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS THE SFC LOW ACROSS W QUEBEC EXITS E AND THE SFC TROUGH
EXTENDING W THROUGH N LAKE SUPERIOR AT 00Z THURSDAY SLOWLY EDGES E.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...THE SFC LOW OVER KS AT 12Z THURSDAY WILL PUSH TO THE S
WI/IN BORDER AT 18Z FRIDAY. THICK CLOUDS WILL PUSH OVER THE
AREA...HELPING TO KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING MUCH PAST THE MID TO UPPER
60S /WITH EVEN SOME 50S RIGHT FROM THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA
E THROUGH WHITEFISH POINT/. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY RAIN OVER
S CENTRAL UPPER MI DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...AT SOME POINT BETWEEN 09-
20Z. LOWER CONFIDENCE REMAINS...AS THE MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY BETWEEN
NO PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA /12Z NAM/ TO THE ECMWF AND GFS WHICH HAVE
OVER AN INCH OVER FAR S CENTRAL UPPER MI NEAR MNM. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A MODEL BLENDED SOLUTION...WITH OVER HALF AN INCH OF RAIN
POSSIBLE S OF A LINE FROM IMT TO ESC...AND OVER 1IN NEAR MNM. WITH
DRIER E WINDS AT THE SFC MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND FAR N UPPER MI
WILL REMAIN EITHER DRY OR WITH A WHOLE LOT LESS PRECIP. EXPECT A
QUICK CUT OFF AS THE SFC LOW ELONGATES ACROSS LOWER MI AND THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE 500MB
RIDGE OVER THE MID MS VALLEY WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT...AND LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY.
EXPECT INCREASED SW FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF THE 500MB LOW OVER S
CENTRAL CANADA SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...AS THE LOW SHIFTS NE INTO
HUDSON BAY MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT IT WILL MAINLY MEAN ZONAL FLOW. WHILE
THE CANADIAN IS MORE TO THE S AND QUICKER TO BRING THE SFC
LOW/TROUGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE SLOWER
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS LOOK MORE REASONABLE. WILL KEEP THE CWA RAIN
FREE UNTIL THE DAYTIME HOURS SUNDAY. TS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE 12Z GFS LOOKS TO HAVE SHIFTED THE BEST
MOISTURE/STRONG THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TO OUR S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015
MAIN HAZARD DURING THE TAF PERIOD IS WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT. A GREAT
DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE TIMING...COVERAGE AND SEVERITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS. BEST GUESS IS THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OVER KIWD
AND KCMX STARTING AROUND 01Z WED AND AROUND 02Z AND KSAW. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE...BUT THAT WILL DEPEND ON OTHER
FACTORS THAT WILL TAKE SHAPE AFTER THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER MN/WI.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015
WINDS WILL REMAIN 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. WITH A
RELATIVELY MOIST LOW LEVELS OVER THE REGION...PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST
INTO WED UNTIL WRLY WINDS BRING AND DRIER AIR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
203 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 512 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM S
CNTRL CANADA INTO THE WRN LAKES BTWN A RIDGE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES
AND A TROUGH FROM QUEBEC INTO THE CNTRL AND ERN GREAT LAKES. 310K
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO SRN MANITOBA
SUPPORTED AN AREA OF SHRA/TSRA INTO FAR NE NORTH DAKOTA. AT THE
SFC...LOW PRES WAS LOCATED OVER CNTRL MANITOBA WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING THROUGH SE SASK INTO NRN MONTANA. OTHERWISE...WEAK MID
LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING INTO THE NRN LAKES HAS BROUGHT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS ALLOWED PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP...MAINLY OVER THE EAST.
SATELLITE TRENDS AND SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL
BATCH OF CLOUDS/PCPN WITH THE AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WOULD MOVE
INTO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE INFLOW
WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THE PCPN WILL HOLD
TOGETHER. HOWEVER...IF THE THICKER CLOUDS REMAIN...REDUCING SFC
HEATING...MLCAPE VALUES MAY ONLY CLIMB TO AROUND 400-800 J/KG. SOME
ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE AND
STRENGTH MAY BE LIMITED.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER STORMS AND HEAVIER PCPN WILL ARRIVE BY
LATE EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT AND LOW PRES APPROACHES ALONG WITH A
PERIOD OF MODERATE TO STRONG 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV WITH THE SHRTWV
AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE LEFT EXIT OF THE 250-300 MB JET MOVING
INTO NRN MN. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER NE MN WILL LIKELY INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AND ORGANIZATION AND QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE NW WI AND W
UPPER MI. MLCAPE/MUCAPE VALUES TO 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE ALONG WITH
0-6KM/0-1KM SHEAR OF 40-50 KNOTS/20-30 KNOTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...PER SPC SLIGHT RISK OVER
THE ENTIRE CWA. ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS MAY BE A THREAT WITH THE AREA OF HIGHER DCAPE VALUES AOA
1K J/KG EXTENDING INTO SW UPPER MI. EXPECT THE AREA OF TSRA TO EXIT
THE CWA QUICKLY BTWN 06Z-09Z AS THE SHORTWAVE AND FRONT MOVE THROUGH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015
WNW-W FLOW ALOFT ACROSS CANADA AND NORTHERN TIER OF CONUS BECOMES
LESS ACTIVE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR
DIVERGENCE AND SUBSIDENCE AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF SFC
LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT THERE IS A WEAKNESS
IN AREA OF Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE WHICH MAY POINT TO SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
WORKING THROUGH. MAY SEE LGT SHRA OR SPRINKLES IN THE MORNING AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION WORKS ACROSS IN WAKE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE STILL IS SMALL
POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL SHRA OR SPRINKLES IN THE AFTN OUT OF
BUILDING CU/TCU DUE TO LIFT FM THE WEAK WAVE AND SUBTLE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. NO TSRA AS INSTABILITY IS MEAGER WITH SUBSIDENCE AND
WARMING ALOFT ABOVE H7.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY WILL THEN SLIDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING ONSHORE OVER WESTERN CONUS ON
WEDNESDAY SLIDES EAST THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK WITH SFC LOW FORMING ON
LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS. TROUGH ALOFT
GRADUALLY WORKS EAST...WITH SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT SLIDING OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN
NORTH AND SOUTH WITH AXIS OF POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. GFS FARTHER NORTH WITH AXIS OF HEAVIER QPF WHILE
ECMWF TRENDED SOUTH AFTER IT TRENDED NORTH A COUPLE MODEL RUNS AGO.
GEM-NH JOGGED NORTH WITH 12Z/8 JUNE RUN BUT HAS SHIFTED BACK TO THE
SOUTH. KEPT LIKELY POPS ONLY OVER FAR SCNTRL AS THAT SEEMS TO BE
WHERE MODELS HAVE SHOWN GREATEST CHANCES OF SEEING DECENT RAINFALL
NORTH OF H85 BAROCLINIC ZONE AND LIKELY ALONG THE TIGHTEST H7 TEMP
GRADIENT. FCST ELEVATED MUCAPE STAYS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF AXIS OF
HEAVIER QPF...BUT GIVEN THIS SETUP WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST SMALL
CHANCES OF TSRA ON NOSE OF STRONGEST MOISTURE ADVECTION AT H85-H7.
POSSIBLE THAT AREAS OF FAR NORTHERN UPR MICHIGAN WILL STAY DRY
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND CONSENSUS GRIDS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW
SUCH A POP/QPF GRADIENT. SHRA/TSRA WILL BE ON THEIR WAY OUT FRIDAY
AFTN INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
DRY DAY ON SATURDAY STILL MOSTLY ON TRACK AS SFC RIDGE TO NORTH OF
SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT LINGERS ACROSS UPPER LAKES AND NW ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC. GEM-NH RUSHES NEXT WAVE OF QPF INTO WEST CWA BY SAT AFTN BUT
IS NOT SUPPORTED BY LATEST GFS/ECMWF. CHANCE POPS RETURN TO GRIDS
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ELEVATED MUCAPES OVER 200 J/KG WITH NEGATIVE
SI/S POINT TO SOME TSRA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SFC BASED STORMS COULD
OCCUR LATER ON SUNDAY AND THEY COULD BE STRONG WITH 0-6KM SHEAR IN
THE UPPER LAKES OF 30-40 KTS. GFS MORE AGRESSIVE WITH INSTABILITY
INTO UPR MICHIGAN WHILE THE ECMWF FCST OF MLCAPES AND MEAN STORM
MOTION USING H85-H3 WINDS...SUGGEST STRONGER STORMS WOULD STAY TO
SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN. PLENTY OF TIME TO FINE TUNE THESE DETAILS.
DRYING MOVES IN FOR MONDAY BEHIND THE TROUGH.
TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED APPEAR TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL
WED THROUGH FRI. WARM EXCEPTION IS SCNTRL ON WEDNESDAY AS DOWNSLOPE
AND WARMER TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD PUSH TEMPS AROUND MENOMINEE INTO UPR
70S TO LWR 80S. COOL EXCEPTION WOULD BE OVER MUCH OF THE CWA ON
FRIDAY AS EVEN WITHOUT A LOT OF RAIN...THICK MID CLOUDS ON NORTHERN
EDGE OF COMPLEX AND EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OFF THE GREAT LAKES WOULD
KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S...COOLEST NEAR LK SUPERIOR
NCNTRL. FAR WEST COULD WARM UP NEAR 70 WITH LESS CLOUDS AND AS EAST
WINDS ARE MORE OF A DOWNSLOPE. TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE BACK OR
EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY WITH JUST SOME CI
AND MINIMAL CHANCES OF RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015
MAIN HAZARD DURING THE TAF PERIOD IS WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT. A GREAT
DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE TIMING...COVERAGE AND SEVERITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS. BEST GUESS IS THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OVER KIWD
AND KCMX STARTING AROUND 01Z WED AND AROUND 02Z AND KSAW. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE...BUT THAT WILL DEPEND ON OTHER
FACTORS THAT WILL TAKE SHAPE AFTER THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER MN/WI.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015
WINDS WILL REMAIN 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. WITH A
RELATIVELY MOIST LOW LEVELS OVER THE REGION...PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST
INTO WED UNTIL WRLY WINDS BRING AND DRIER AIR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
736 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 512 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM S
CNTRL CANADA INTO THE WRN LAKES BTWN A RIDGE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES
AND A TROUGH FROM QUEBEC INTO THE CNTRL AND ERN GREAT LAKES. 310K
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO SRN MANITOBA
SUPPORTED AN AREA OF SHRA/TSRA INTO FAR NE NORTH DAKOTA. AT THE
SFC...LOW PRES WAS LOCATED OVER CNTRL MANITOBA WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING THROUGH SE SASK INTO NRN MONTANA. OTHERWISE...WEAK MID
LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING INTO THE NRN LAKES HAS BROUGHT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS ALLOWED PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP...MAINLY OVER THE EAST.
SATELLITE TRENDS AND SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL
BATCH OF CLOUDS/PCPN WITH THE AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WOULD MOVE
INTO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE INFLOW
WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THE PCPN WILL HOLD
TOGETHER. HOWEVER...IF THE THICKER CLOUDS REMAIN...REDUCING SFC
HEATING...MLCAPE VALUES MAY ONLY CLIMB TO AROUND 400-800 J/KG. SOME
ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE AND
STRENGTH MAY BE LIMITED.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER STORMS AND HEAVIER PCPN WILL ARRIVE BY
LATE EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT AND LOW PRES APPROACHES ALONG WITH A
PERIOD OF MODERATE TO STRONG 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV WITH THE SHRTWV
AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE LEFT EXIT OF THE 250-300 MB JET MOVING
INTO NRN MN. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER NE MN WILL LIKELY INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AND ORGANIZATION AND QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE NW WI AND W
UPPER MI. MLCAPE/MUCAPE VALUES TO 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE ALONG WITH
0-6KM/0-1KM SHEAR OF 40-50 KNOTS/20-30 KNOTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...PER SPC SLIGHT RISK OVER
THE ENTIRE CWA. ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS MAY BE A THREAT WITH THE AREA OF HIGHER DCAPE VALUES AOA
1K J/KG EXTENDING INTO SW UPPER MI. EXPECT THE AREA OF TSRA TO EXIT
THE CWA QUICKLY BTWN 06Z-09Z AS THE SHORTWAVE AND FRONT MOVE THROUGH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015
WNW-W FLOW ALOFT ACROSS CANADA AND NORTHERN TIER OF CONUS BECOMES
LESS ACTIVE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR
DIVERGENCE AND SUBSIDENCE AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF SFC
LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT THERE IS A WEAKNESS
IN AREA OF Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE WHICH MAY POINT TO SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
WORKING THROUGH. MAY SEE LGT SHRA OR SPRINKLES IN THE MORNING AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION WORKS ACROSS IN WAKE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE STILL IS SMALL
POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL SHRA OR SPRINKLES IN THE AFTN OUT OF
BUILDING CU/TCU DUE TO LIFT FM THE WEAK WAVE AND SUBTLE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. NO TSRA AS INSTABILITY IS MEAGER WITH SUBSIDENCE AND
WARMING ALOFT ABOVE H7.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY WILL THEN SLIDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING ONSHORE OVER WESTERN CONUS ON
WEDNESDAY SLIDES EAST THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK WITH SFC LOW FORMING ON
LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS. TROUGH ALOFT
GRADUALLY WORKS EAST...WITH SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT SLIDING OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN
NORTH AND SOUTH WITH AXIS OF POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. GFS FARTHER NORTH WITH AXIS OF HEAVIER QPF WHILE
ECMWF TRENDED SOUTH AFTER IT TRENDED NORTH A COUPLE MODEL RUNS AGO.
GEM-NH JOGGED NORTH WITH 12Z/8 JUNE RUN BUT HAS SHIFTED BACK TO THE
SOUTH. KEPT LIKELY POPS ONLY OVER FAR SCNTRL AS THAT SEEMS TO BE
WHERE MODELS HAVE SHOWN GREATEST CHANCES OF SEEING DECENT RAINFALL
NORTH OF H85 BAROCLINIC ZONE AND LIKELY ALONG THE TIGHTEST H7 TEMP
GRADIENT. FCST ELEVATED MUCAPE STAYS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF AXIS OF
HEAVIER QPF...BUT GIVEN THIS SETUP WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST SMALL
CHANCES OF TSRA ON NOSE OF STRONGEST MOISTURE ADVECTION AT H85-H7.
POSSIBLE THAT AREAS OF FAR NORTHERN UPR MICHIGAN WILL STAY DRY
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND CONSENSUS GRIDS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW
SUCH A POP/QPF GRADIENT. SHRA/TSRA WILL BE ON THEIR WAY OUT FRIDAY
AFTN INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
DRY DAY ON SATURDAY STILL MOSTLY ON TRACK AS SFC RIDGE TO NORTH OF
SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT LINGERS ACROSS UPPER LAKES AND NW ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC. GEM-NH RUSHES NEXT WAVE OF QPF INTO WEST CWA BY SAT AFTN BUT
IS NOT SUPPORTED BY LATEST GFS/ECMWF. CHANCE POPS RETURN TO GRIDS
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ELEVATED MUCAPES OVER 200 J/KG WITH NEGATIVE
SI/S POINT TO SOME TSRA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SFC BASED STORMS COULD
OCCUR LATER ON SUNDAY AND THEY COULD BE STRONG WITH 0-6KM SHEAR IN
THE UPPER LAKES OF 30-40 KTS. GFS MORE AGRESSIVE WITH INSTABILITY
INTO UPR MICHIGAN WHILE THE ECMWF FCST OF MLCAPES AND MEAN STORM
MOTION USING H85-H3 WINDS...SUGGEST STRONGER STORMS WOULD STAY TO
SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN. PLENTY OF TIME TO FINE TUNE THESE DETAILS.
DRYING MOVES IN FOR MONDAY BEHIND THE TROUGH.
TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED APPEAR TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL
WED THROUGH FRI. WARM EXCEPTION IS SCNTRL ON WEDNESDAY AS DOWNSLOPE
AND WARMER TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD PUSH TEMPS AROUND MENOMINEE INTO UPR
70S TO LWR 80S. COOL EXCEPTION WOULD BE OVER MUCH OF THE CWA ON
FRIDAY AS EVEN WITHOUT A LOT OF RAIN...THICK MID CLOUDS ON NORTHERN
EDGE OF COMPLEX AND EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OFF THE GREAT LAKES WOULD
KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S...COOLEST NEAR LK SUPERIOR
NCNTRL. FAR WEST COULD WARM UP NEAR 70 WITH LESS CLOUDS AND AS EAST
WINDS ARE MORE OF A DOWNSLOPE. TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE BACK OR
EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY WITH JUST SOME CI
AND MINIMAL CHANCES OF RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 733 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015
SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TS MAY ARRIVE DURING THE AFTERNOON
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE RETURNS IN A DEVELOPING SW FLOW IN
THE PRESENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING WELL IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. AS THE FRONT MOVES IN AND INTERACTS WITH AN UNSTABLE
AIRMASS...EXPECT SOME TS TO IMPACT ALL 3 AIRPORTS. A FEW STORMS MAY
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL END THE TS
THREAT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015
WINDS WILL REMAIN 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. WITH A
RELATIVELY MOIST LOW LEVELS OVER THE REGION...PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST
INTO WED UNTIL WRLY WINDS BRING AND DRIER AIR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
523 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 512 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM S
CNTRL CANADA INTO THE WRN LAKES BTWN A RIDGE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES
AND A TROUGH FROM QUEBEC INTO THE CNTRL AND ERN GREAT LAKES. 310K
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO SRN MANITOBA
SUPPORTED AN AREA OF SHRA/TSRA INTO FAR NE NORTH DAKOTA. AT THE
SFC...LOW PRES WAS LOCATED OVER CNTRL MANITOBA WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING THROUGH SE SASK INTO NRN MONTANA. OTHERWISE...WEAK MID
LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING INTO THE NRN LAKES HAS BROUGHT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS ALLOWED PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP...MAINLY OVER THE EAST.
SATELLITE TRENDS AND SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL
BATCH OF CLOUDS/PCPN WITH THE AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WOULD MOVE
INTO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE INFLOW
WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THE PCPN WILL HOLD
TOGETHER. HOWEVER...IF THE THICKER CLOUDS REMAIN...REDUCING SFC
HEATING...MLCAPE VALUES MAY ONLY CLIMB TO AROUND 400-800 J/KG. SOME
ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE AND
STRENGTH MAY BE LIMITED.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER STORMS AND HEAVIER PCPN WILL ARRIVE BY
LATE EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT AND LOW PRES APPROACHES ALONG WITH A
PERIOD OF MODERATE TO STRONG 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV WITH THE SHRTWV
AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE LEFT EXIT OF THE 250-300 MB JET MOVING
INTO NRN MN. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER NE MN WILL LIKELY INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AND ORGANIZATION AND QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE NW WI AND W
UPPER MI. MLCAPE/MUCAPE VALUES TO 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE ALONG WITH
0-6KM/0-1KM SHEAR OF 40-50 KNOTS/20-30 KNOTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...PER SPC SLIGHT RISK OVER
THE ENTIRE CWA. ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS MAY BE A THREAT WITH THE AREA OF HIGHER DCAPE VALUES AOA
1K J/KG EXTENDING INTO SW UPPER MI. EXPECT THE AREA OF TSRA TO EXIT
THE CWA QUICKLY BTWN 06Z-09Z AS THE SHORTWAVE AND FRONT MOVE THROUGH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015
WNW-W FLOW ALOFT ACROSS CANADA AND NORTHERN TIER OF CONUS BECOMES
LESS ACTIVE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR
DIVERGENCE AND SUBSIDENCE AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF SFC
LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT THERE IS A WEAKNESS
IN AREA OF Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE WHICH MAY POINT TO SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
WORKING THROUGH. MAY SEE LGT SHRA OR SPRINKLES IN THE MORNING AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION WORKS ACROSS IN WAKE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE STILL IS SMALL
POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL SHRA OR SPRINKLES IN THE AFTN OUT OF
BUILDING CU/TCU DUE TO LIFT FM THE WEAK WAVE AND SUBTLE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. NO TSRA AS INSTABILITY IS MEAGER WITH SUBSIDENCE AND
WARMING ALOFT ABOVE H7.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY WILL THEN SLIDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING ONSHORE OVER WESTERN CONUS ON
WEDNESDAY SLIDES EAST THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK WITH SFC LOW FORMING ON
LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS. TROUGH ALOFT
GRADUALLY WORKS EAST...WITH SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT SLIDING OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN
NORTH AND SOUTH WITH AXIS OF POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. GFS FARTHER NORTH WITH AXIS OF HEAVIER QPF WHILE
ECMWF TRENDED SOUTH AFTER IT TRENDED NORTH A COUPLE MODEL RUNS AGO.
GEM-NH JOGGED NORTH WITH 12Z/8 JUNE RUN BUT HAS SHIFTED BACK TO THE
SOUTH. KEPT LIKELY POPS ONLY OVER FAR SCNTRL AS THAT SEEMS TO BE
WHERE MODELS HAVE SHOWN GREATEST CHANCES OF SEEING DECENT RAINFALL
NORTH OF H85 BAROCLINIC ZONE AND LIKELY ALONG THE TIGHTEST H7 TEMP
GRADIENT. FCST ELEVATED MUCAPE STAYS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF AXIS OF
HEAVIER QPF...BUT GIVEN THIS SETUP WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST SMALL
CHANCES OF TSRA ON NOSE OF STRONGEST MOISTURE ADVECTION AT H85-H7.
POSSIBLE THAT AREAS OF FAR NORTHERN UPR MICHIGAN WILL STAY DRY
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND CONSENSUS GRIDS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW
SUCH A POP/QPF GRADIENT. SHRA/TSRA WILL BE ON THEIR WAY OUT FRIDAY
AFTN INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
DRY DAY ON SATURDAY STILL MOSTLY ON TRACK AS SFC RIDGE TO NORTH OF
SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT LINGERS ACROSS UPPER LAKES AND NW ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC. GEM-NH RUSHES NEXT WAVE OF QPF INTO WEST CWA BY SAT AFTN BUT
IS NOT SUPPORTED BY LATEST GFS/ECMWF. CHANCE POPS RETURN TO GRIDS
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ELEVATED MUCAPES OVER 200 J/KG WITH NEGATIVE
SI/S POINT TO SOME TSRA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SFC BASED STORMS COULD
OCCUR LATER ON SUNDAY AND THEY COULD BE STRONG WITH 0-6KM SHEAR IN
THE UPPER LAKES OF 30-40 KTS. GFS MORE AGRESSIVE WITH INSTABILITY
INTO UPR MICHIGAN WHILE THE ECMWF FCST OF MLCAPES AND MEAN STORM
MOTION USING H85-H3 WINDS...SUGGEST STRONGER STORMS WOULD STAY TO
SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN. PLENTY OF TIME TO FINE TUNE THESE DETAILS.
DRYING MOVES IN FOR MONDAY BEHIND THE TROUGH.
TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED APPEAR TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL
WED THROUGH FRI. WARM EXCEPTION IS SCNTRL ON WEDNESDAY AS DOWNSLOPE
AND WARMER TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD PUSH TEMPS AROUND MENOMINEE INTO UPR
70S TO LWR 80S. COOL EXCEPTION WOULD BE OVER MUCH OF THE CWA ON
FRIDAY AS EVEN WITHOUT A LOT OF RAIN...THICK MID CLOUDS ON NORTHERN
EDGE OF COMPLEX AND EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OFF THE GREAT LAKES WOULD
KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S...COOLEST NEAR LK SUPERIOR
NCNTRL. FAR WEST COULD WARM UP NEAR 70 WITH LESS CLOUDS AND AS EAST
WINDS ARE MORE OF A DOWNSLOPE. TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE BACK OR
EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY WITH JUST SOME CI
AND MINIMAL CHANCES OF RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015
WITH LGT WINDS AND LINGERING LLVL MSTR UNDER MID LVL SUBSIDENCE/
DRYING...EXPECT FOG TO LOWER VSBYS INTO THE IFR RANGE AT THE TAF
SITES. ANY FOG WL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS. SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
TS MAY ARRIVE DURING THE AFTN DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH MSTR RETURNS IN
A DVLPG SW FLOW IN THE PRESENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING WELL IN ADVANCE
OF AN APRCHG COLD FNT. AS THIS FNT CLOSES IN AND INTERACTS WITH AN
UNSTABLE AIRMASS...EXPECT SOME TS TO IMPACT ALL 3 AIRPORTS. A FEW
STORMS WL CAUSE CAUSE GUSTY WINDS. THE PASSAGE OF THE FNT WL END THE
TS THREAT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015
WINDS WILL REMAIN 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. WITH A
RELATIVELY MOIST LOW LEVELS OVER THE REGION...PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST
INTO WED UNTIL WRLY WINDS BRING AND DRIER AIR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
515 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 512 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM S
CNTRL CANADA INTO THE WRN LAKES BTWN A RIDGE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES
AND A TROUGH FROM QUEBEC INTO THE CNTRL AND ERN GREAT LAKES. 310K
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO SRN MANITOBA
SUPPORTED AN AREA OF SHRA/TSRA INTO FAR NE NORTH DAKOTA. AT THE
SFC...LOW PRES WAS LOCATED OVER CNTRL MANITOBA WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING THROUGH SE SASK INTO NRN MONTANA. OTHERWISE...WEAK MID
LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING INTO THE NRN LAKES HAS BROUGHT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS ALLOWED PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP...MAINLY OVER THE EAST.
SATELLITE TRENDS AND SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL
BATCH OF CLOUDS/PCPN WITH THE AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WOULD MOVE
INTO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE INFLOW
WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THE PCPN WILL HOLD
TOGETHER. HOWEVER...IF THE THICKER CLOUDS REMAIN...REDUCING SFC
HEATING...MLCAPE VALUES MAY ONLY CLIMB TO AROUND 400-800 J/KG. SOME
ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE AND
STRENGTH MAY BE LIMITED.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER STORMS AND HEAVIER PCPN WILL ARRIVE BY
LATE EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT AND LOW PRES APPROACHES ALONG WITH A
PERIOD OF MODERATE TO STRONG 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV WITH THE SHRTWV
AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE LEFT EXIT OF THE 250-300 MB JET MOVING
INTO NRN MN. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER NE MN WILL LIKELY INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AND ORGANIZATION AND QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE NW WI AND W
UPPER MI. MLCAPE/MUCAPE VALUES TO 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE ALONG WITH
0-6KM/0-1KM SHEAR OF 40-50 KNOTS/20-30 KNOTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...PER SPC SLIGHT RISK OVER
THE ENTIRE CWA. ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS MAY BE A THREAT WITH THE AREA OF HIGHER DCAPE VALUES AOA
1K J/KG EXTENDING INTO SW UPPER MI. EXPECT THE AREA OF TSRA TO EXIT
THE CWA QUICKLY BTWN 06Z-09Z AS THE SHORTWAVE AND FRONT MOVE THROUGH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015
WNW-W FLOW ALOFT ACROSS CANADA AND NORTHERN TIER OF CONUS BECOMES
LESS ACTIVE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR
DIVERGENCE AND SUBSIDENCE AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF SFC
LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT THERE IS A WEAKNESS
IN AREA OF Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE WHICH MAY POINT TO SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
WORKING THROUGH. MAY SEE LGT SHRA OR SPRINKLES IN THE MORNING AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION WORKS ACROSS IN WAKE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE STILL IS SMALL
POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL SHRA OR SPRINKLES IN THE AFTN OUT OF
BUILDING CU/TCU DUE TO LIFT FM THE WEAK WAVE AND SUBTLE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. NO TSRA AS INSTABILITY IS MEAGER WITH SUBSIDENCE AND
WARMING ALOFT ABOVE H7.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY WILL THEN SLIDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING ONSHORE OVER WESTERN CONUS ON
WEDNESDAY SLIDES EAST THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK WITH SFC LOW FORMING ON
LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS. TROUGH ALOFT
GRADUALLY WORKS EAST...WITH SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT SLIDING OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN
NORTH AND SOUTH WITH AXIS OF POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. GFS FARTHER NORTH WITH AXIS OF HEAVIER QPF WHILE
ECMWF TRENDED SOUTH AFTER IT TRENDED NORTH A COUPLE MODEL RUNS AGO.
GEM-NH JOGGED NORTH WITH 12Z/8 JUNE RUN BUT HAS SHIFTED BACK TO THE
SOUTH. KEPT LIKELY POPS ONLY OVER FAR SCNTRL AS THAT SEEMS TO BE
WHERE MODELS HAVE SHOWN GREATEST CHANCES OF SEEING DECENT RAINFALL
NORTH OF H85 BAROCLINIC ZONE AND LIKELY ALONG THE TIGHTEST H7 TEMP
GRADIENT. FCST ELEVATED MUCAPE STAYS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF AXIS OF
HEAVIER QPF...BUT GIVEN THIS SETUP WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST SMALL
CHANCES OF TSRA ON NOSE OF STRONGEST MOISTURE ADVECTION AT H85-H7.
POSSIBLE THAT AREAS OF FAR NORTHERN UPR MICHIGAN WILL STAY DRY
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND CONSENSUS GRIDS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW
SUCH A POP/QPF GRADIENT. SHRA/TSRA WILL BE ON THEIR WAY OUT FRIDAY
AFTN INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
DRY DAY ON SATURDAY STILL MOSTLY ON TRACK AS SFC RIDGE TO NORTH OF
SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT LINGERS ACROSS UPPER LAKES AND NW ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC. GEM-NH RUSHES NEXT WAVE OF QPF INTO WEST CWA BY SAT AFTN BUT
IS NOT SUPPORTED BY LATEST GFS/ECMWF. CHANCE POPS RETURN TO GRIDS
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ELEVATED MUCAPES OVER 200 J/KG WITH NEGATIVE
SI/S POINT TO SOME TSRA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SFC BASED STORMS COULD
OCCUR LATER ON SUNDAY AND THEY COULD BE STRONG WITH 0-6KM SHEAR IN
THE UPPER LAKES OF 30-40 KTS. GFS MORE AGRESSIVE WITH INSTABILITY
INTO UPR MICHIGAN WHILE THE ECMWF FCST OF MLCAPES AND MEAN STORM
MOTION USING H85-H3 WINDS...SUGGEST STRONGER STORMS WOULD STAY TO
SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN. PLENTY OF TIME TO FINE TUNE THESE DETAILS.
DRYING MOVES IN FOR MONDAY BEHIND THE TROUGH.
TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED APPEAR TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL
WED THROUGH FRI. WARM EXCEPTION IS SCNTRL ON WEDNESDAY AS DOWNSLOPE
AND WARMER TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD PUSH TEMPS AROUND MENOMINEE INTO UPR
70S TO LWR 80S. COOL EXCEPTION WOULD BE OVER MUCH OF THE CWA ON
FRIDAY AS EVEN WITHOUT A LOT OF RAIN...THICK MID CLOUDS ON NORTHERN
EDGE OF COMPLEX AND EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OFF THE GREAT LAKES WOULD
KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S...COOLEST NEAR LK SUPERIOR
NCNTRL. FAR WEST COULD WARM UP NEAR 70 WITH LESS CLOUDS AND AS EAST
WINDS ARE MORE OF A DOWNSLOPE. TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE BACK OR
EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY WITH JUST SOME CI
AND MINIMAL CHANCES OF RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015
WITH LGT WINDS AND LINGERING LLVL MSTR UNDER MID LVL SUBSIDENCE/
DRYING...EXPECT FOG TO LOWER VSBYS INTO THE IFR RANGE AT THE TAF
SITES. ANY FOG WL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS. SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
TS MAY ARRIVE DURING THE AFTN DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH MSTR RETURNS IN
A DVLPG SW FLOW IN THE PRESENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING WELL IN ADVANCE
OF AN APRCHG COLD FNT. AS THIS FNT CLOSES IN AND INTERACTS WITH AN
UNSTABLE AIRMASS...EXPECT SOME TS TO IMPACT ALL 3 AIRPORTS. A FEW
STORMS WL CAUSE CAUSE GUSTY WINDS. THE PASSAGE OF THE FNT WL END THE
TS THREAT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015
WINDS WILL REMAIN 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. PATCHY
FOG WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LAKE INTO WED AS A RELATIVELY MOIST
AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE COLD GREAT LAKES WATER AND REMAINS OVER THE
REGION.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED FORMAT
NWS JACKSON MS
437 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
.DISCUSSION...
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION IN THE NEAR TERM WITH DRIER MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR NOW
MOVING INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS. VERY WARM AND HUMID
AIR CONTINUES IN THE LOWER LEVELS...AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS MANAGED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE
APPROACHING 4000 J/KG OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS IN
PRECIPITABLE WATER AIRMASS AROUND 1.7 INCHES. THERE IS SUFFICIENT LOW
LEVEL FLOW TO HELP STORMS ORGANIZE A ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND
UPDRAFTS ARE OCCASIONALLY PULSING UP TO NEAR SEVERE INTENSITY.
MOREOVER...NEARLY OPPOSED PROPAGATION AND CELL MOTIONS ARE RESULTING
IN SLOW STORM MOVEMENT AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL. OVER
EASTERN MS...THE AIRMASS WAS DEPLETED BY OVERNIGHT EARLY MORNING TSTM
COMPLEX...BUT HAS SINCE RECOVERED ENOUGH TO SUPPORT NON-SEVERE TSTM
REDEVELOPMENT. THE HRRR HAD BEEN PRETTY INSISTENT ON MOVING THE
CONVECTIVE RAINFALL BACK INTO THE PINE BELT REGION AS WE GO INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...BUT GIVEN HWO MUCH STABILIZATION TOOK PLACE THIS
MORNING...IT SEEMS UNLIKELY TO HAPPEN AND HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS A
LITTLE. GOING THROUGH THE LATE EVENING...EXPECT CONVECTION TO
DIMINISH WITH COOLING. PATCHY AREAS OF FOG COULD DEVELOP IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.
FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS FOR
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE RAINFALL TO BE MOST CONCENTRATED OVER SOUTH/EAST
CENTRAL MS WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED. THE GFS INDICATES
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE COINCIDING WITH INSTABILITY AXIS IN THAT
REGION AS WELL THAT WOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS.
THE GFS FORECASTS VERTICAL TOTALS TO APPROACH 27 SUGGESTING THAT A
FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS FROM AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. EXPECT STORMS TO DIMINISH WITH SUNSET
WEDNESDAY EVENING. /EC/
&&
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE IN
PLACE AS PW VALUES WILL BE NEAR 2 INCHES. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THE MOIST FEED WITH LOW TO MID 70S DEWPOINTS. MID LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN WILL BE LIGHT AND DISORGANIZED WITH A WEAK LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
WITH THIS SETUP EXPECT A GREATER THAN NORMAL COVERAGE OF DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF
THIS TIME PERIOD. INCREASED MOISTURE/RAINFALL WILL ALSO MAKE FOR
NARROW DIURNAL TEMP RANGES WITH MINS IN THE LOWER 70S AND HIGHS NEAR
90 AND AN OVERALL VERY MUGGY FEEL TO THE AIR. WEAK STEERING ALOFT
WILL ALLOW FOR SLOW STORM MOVEMENTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
BY LATE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...INCREASED RIDGING FROM THE EAST WILL
BEGIN DRYING/WARMING THE COLUMN. THUS...EXPECT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
TO BEGIN LESSENING IN THE EAST AND MAX TEMPS TO BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER. /26/
&&
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MAIN
CONCERN SCT TSRA THAT HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN 1/2 OF MS
INTO NE LA AND SE AR. CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE OVER THIS
AREA BEHIND MORNING MCS THAT MOVED S ACROSS AREA...AND ARE FAVORABLE
FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH MORE INTENSE STORMS. THINKING RIGHT NOW IS
THAT MOST STORMS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY W AND S OF TAF SITES SO HAVE
JUST WENT VCTS AT KHKS AND KJAN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR/SAT
TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION OF CONDITIONAL TSRA AS NEEDED.
OTHERWISE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND ONLY OTHER
CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME BR LATER TONIGHT AND FIRST THING WED
AM...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED RAIN IN LAST 24 HOURS.
BIGGEST CONCERN IS OVER SE AND HAVE WENT WITH A PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS AT KHBG. /AEG/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 70 89 69 87 / 35 40 19 48
MERIDIAN 68 88 68 86 / 30 42 23 49
VICKSBURG 70 90 70 88 / 44 35 15 40
HATTIESBURG 69 88 70 86 / 30 53 30 56
NATCHEZ 70 88 70 87 / 34 43 22 47
GREENVILLE 71 92 73 89 / 16 17 10 29
GREENWOOD 70 90 71 87 / 17 23 11 36
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
EC/26/AEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
937 PM MDT WED JUN 10 2015
.UPDATE...
REDUCED POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES WHERE A MORE STABLE
ATMOSPHERE HAS DEVELOPED. ALSO REDUCED POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON RUNS OF THE HRRR INDICATED A MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT EXISTED AND WAS SUGGESTING RAIN WOULD NOT DEVELOP.
GIVEN THAT THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT HAS MOVED OUT OF MONTANA...AM
CANCELING THE MONTANA PORTION OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...JUST
LEAVING SHERIDAN COUNTY. REIMER
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...
MESOANALYSIS SHOWED SURFACE CAPES IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG WITH
LOWER CAPES OVER FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
SHEAR WAS 25-30 KT ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA...WHICH WAS NOT SIGNIFICANT. A PLUME OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATERS...1 TO 1.3 IN...WAS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...AS FAR W AS
WHEATLAND AND SWEET GRASS COUNTIES. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WAS
LOCATED SE OF KBIL OVER EASTERN SHERIDAN COUNTY INTO ROSEBUD
COUNTY...BASED ON LAPS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CONVECTION HAD
BROKEN OUT OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND SOME WEAK SHOWERS WERE OVER
THE E ZONES. DID RECEIVE A REPORT OF PEA-SIZED HAIL COVERING THE
GROUND IN THE SW PORTION OF THE NE BIGHORNS.
THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF A JET N OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BRING
UPPER DIVERGENCE TO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY THU. THIS LIFT WILL
COMBINE WITH LIFT FROM THE INVERTED TROUGH...ABUNDANT
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND SE UPSLOPE FLOW TO BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TONIGHT. BASED ON THE MESOSCALE MODELS
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SE OF KBIL INTO
SHERIDAN COUNTY AND SE MT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT BUT WILL BE LIKELY OVER FAR SE MT AND SHERIDAN COUNTY.
THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL.
HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
THROUGH 06Z...AFTER WHICH TIME INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE WHICH
WILL SUPPORT DECREASING HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
KEPT LIKELY POPS OVER FAR SE MT AND SHERIDAN COUNTY THU MORNING IN
THE VICINITY OF THE INVERTED TROUGH AND LIFT FROM THE JET. HAD
LOWER POPS ELSEWHERE. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AND MODELS SHOWED MUCH LESS INSTABILITY FOR THU.
IT WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S.
AREA WILL DRY OUT THROUGH FRI MORNING...AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS
WILL FALL TO /0.50/ TO /0.75/ INCHES ON FRI. A CUTOFF LOW WILL
MOVE E THROUGH SW CANADA ON FRI AND ENERGY WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
BASE OF THE LOW FRI NIGHT. THE LOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SE INTO
THE AREA ON FRI...BRINGING A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION TO
AREAS OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
WILL SPREAD ALONG THE FRONT FRI NIGHT. SREF HAD INSTABILITY IN THE
500-1000 J/KG RANGE AND BEST CHANCES FOR DECENT SHEAR OVER THE NW
ZONES...SO A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND INTO THE 80S AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON FRI. ARTHUR
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...
A GENERALLY ACTIVE EARLY-SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED TO
TAKE SHAPE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. UPPER LOW OVER ALBERTA/
SASKATCHEWAN ON SATURDAY WILL EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY.
SATURDAY MAY ACTUALLY BE A FAIRLY QUIET DAY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT OUR
FAR EAST. SFC TROF AXIS AND HIGHER THETA-E AIR ALONG THE DAKOTAS
BORDER SUPPORTS TSTM ACTIVITY IN OUR EAST. OUR CENTRAL AND WEST
PARTS WILL BE SOMEWHAT DRIER AND MORE STABLE AS WEAK CANADIAN SFC
HIGH SETTLES IN. DOOR WILL OPEN TO GREATER CHANCES OF CONVECTION
ACROSS OUR CWA SUNDAY-MONDAY AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES TO THE BC/WA
COAST. RIPPLES OF ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE WSW FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
US DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...THOUGH ECMWF AND GFS STILL SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES
ESPECIALLY W/ REGARD TO A POTENTIAL TUESDAY SHORTWAVE. PWATS WILL
FLUCTUATE BUT SHOULD STAY GENERALLY NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL WITH
VALUES NEAR AN INCH AT TIMES IN OUR EAST. EXPECT FASTER MID LEVEL
FLOW THAN WE HAVE SEEN OF LATE...WHICH MAY YIELD PERIODIC THREATS
OF SEVERE WX NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL NOT BE TOO FAR FROM NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S EACH DAY.
JKL
&&
.AVIATION...
SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT MAINLY AROUND
SHERIDAN. SOME AREAS OF MVFR WILL DEVELOPE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
FROM BILLINGS EAST. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. REIMER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 056/077 056/085 057/078 054/078 054/075 054/076 055/079
42/T 01/U 21/B 22/T 33/T 33/T 32/T
LVM 051/079 051/084 049/078 045/077 048/073 048/076 049/078
52/T 02/T 22/T 22/T 32/T 33/T 33/T
HDN 057/077 054/087 057/081 053/081 054/079 054/078 055/081
52/T 00/U 21/B 22/T 33/T 33/T 32/T
MLS 056/074 056/085 058/080 055/079 055/077 056/076 054/077
43/T 00/U 23/T 22/T 33/T 33/T 32/T
4BQ 056/070 053/083 056/081 054/079 055/076 056/078 056/079
46/T 00/U 12/T 33/T 44/T 43/T 33/T
BHK 052/070 052/081 055/080 054/078 054/075 054/074 052/074
44/T 00/U 23/T 43/T 44/T 44/T 43/T
SHR 053/071 048/081 052/077 050/076 051/074 052/076 051/079
87/T 11/U 12/T 33/T 33/T 43/T 32/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
ZONES 98-99.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1109 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE NORTH...AND A FEW SHOWERS FOR SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY AIR WILL RETURN FOR
WEDNESDAY BRINGING WARM AIR AND SUNNY SKIES. LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING RAIN BACK TO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
1110 PM UPDATE...WITH SEVERE STORM CLUSTERS DROPPING SOUTH OF THE
MEAN FLOW...WE HAVE EXTENDED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ACROSS
TOMPKINS...CORTLAND AND CHENANGO COUNTIES UNTIL 1 AM.
1015 PM UPDATE...AS EARLIER THOUGHT...THUNDERSTORMS FIRED AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE LAST COUPLE HOURS WITHIN A STRONGLY
FORCED...SHEARED...BUT ONLY WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. SCATTERED
STORMS HAVE GONE SEVERE ACROSS OUR NORTH COUNTRY WITH A WIND
THREAT AS MAIN CONCERN. SVR WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM...AND ALL
LOOKS GOOD WITH TIMING AND IMPACT AREAS. MESO MODELS SUGGEST RAPID
WANING AFTER 06Z AS FORCING LIFTS NORTHEAST AND STORMS DROP SOUTH.
GENERAL POP/WX IDEA STILL ON TARGET. NO OTHER CHANGES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
GROWING CONCERN THIS EVENING THAT A STRONG...DYNAMICALLY FORCED
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO A DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL LEAD TO NEW DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN OUR
AREA. MODEST LOW LEVEL WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION...AS SEEN IN
THETA-E FIELDS...WAS STEEPENING LOW-MID LVL LAPSE RATES OVER THE
REGION. 500-300 MB JET STREAK ADVANCING ON THE AREA FROM LOWER
ONTARIO WAS PROVIDING OVER 50 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...AND EVEN
TURNING IN THE LOW LEVELS IS PRESENT WHICH COULD SUPPORT STRONG
UPDRAFTS AND A SMALL CHANCE FOR HEALTHY MESOCYCLONES. MESOSCALE
MODELS SUGGEST NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE 02Z-06Z TIME
FRAME JUST AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS WRN NEW
YORK...AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE. REALLY LIKE THE NAM4KM AND
CANADIAN RGEM IDEAS...ALTHOUGH HRRR AND WRF-NMM ALSO SEEM TO HAVE
SIMILAR SOLUTIONS.
THE MAIN SHORT WAVE FORCING LOOKS TO AFFECT MAINLY OUR NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH IS WHERE WE ARE EXPECTING ANY
OF THE STRONGER STORMS TO BE...SAY ROUGHLY FROM PEO-SYR-UCA...WITH
MORE GENERAL TSTM ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH...IF IT CAN MAKE IT.
BULK OF FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A 02Z-07Z WINDOW OF BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...INCLUDING ANY SVR POTENTIAL.
FORECAST CHANGES FROM THIS AFTERNOON FEATURE INCREASED POPS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES TO LIKELY-CATEGORICAL AT TIMES...WITH A RAPID
DROP OFF TO NEAR ZERO CHANCES FOR RAIN IN NORTHEAST PA THROUGH THE
NIGHT. HIGHER POP AREAS WERE ALSO GIVEN ENHANCED HAIL...GUSTY
WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...FQT LIGHTNING TERMINOLOGY.
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
REMAINS OF THE FNT COULD TRIGGER SOME CONV OVER THE NEPA ZONES
DURING THU...ESP CNSRDG THE HTG XPCTD. FCST SNDGS...ESP THE
NAM...SHOW AVBL ENERGY FOR CONV TMRW AFTN. LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE
THE VERY DRY AIR...AND A MORE STABLE MID LYR SHOWN ON THE MODELS.
INTRSTG TEMP FCST FOR NEPA WITH THE MET GUID GIVING AVP 90F. WITH
THE BLENDED GUID STILL GOT AN 88F FOR AVP SO IT WILL BE A WRM DAY.
WEAK RDGG SFC AND ALFOT FOR FRI AS A WV AND SFC LOW DEEPEN TO THE
WEST. SOME ISLTD CONV PSBL IN THE DIRTY RDG AND MORE CLDS SHD
LIMIT THE HTG BY A FEW DEGREES OVER NEPA.
BEST JET DYNAMCS PASS NORTH OF NY FRI NGT AND SAT AND SHD BE THE
FOCUS OF HEAVY RAIN...LVG THE FCST AREA IN SCT TO MUMEROUS SHWRS
FROM LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT. HIPRES BLDS IN DURING SAT BRINGING
CLRG SKIES LTR IN THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1 PM UPDATE...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH MULTIPLE FRONTS IN THE VICINITY FOR THE
DURATION. SHOWERS WILL BE COMMON AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE NORMAL. SAT NGT TO SUN NGT FAIRLY DRY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND. A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH
NE TOWARDS THE AREA FOR MONDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY THEN PUSH THROUGH WED.
FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. NOTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE FOR WEATHER THIS
FAR OUT.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING SE FROM
WESTERN NY AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. CURRENTLY,
JUST A FEW STRONG STORMS ON RADAR BUT INDICATIONS THESE MAY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE..ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN SITES SO WE HAVE
INCLUDED THE MENTION OF STORMS IN THE TAFS FOR KITH/KSYR/KRME FOR
LATER THIS EVENING AFTER 2Z. IF STORMS DO MATERIALIZE FOR THESE
AREAS, AT LEAST MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY IF NOT IFR. FOR
KELM/KBGM, LESS CERTAINTY IF STORMS WILL OCCUR HOWEVER
RESTRICTIONS IN VISBY ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT FOR KELM WITH MVFR VIS.
SHOWERS/STORMS ACTIVITY SHOULD MISS KAVP TO THE NORTH WITH VFR
CONTINUING. IN ADDITION TO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS STORMS ALSO HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS. SHOWERS/STORMS
EXIT BY LATER TONIGHT WITH VFR FOR THURSDAY UNDER A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS. ONE EXCEPTION COULD BE KAVP WHERE A FEW STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT MOST LIKELY THESE STAY SOUTH.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE S/SW TONIGHT AROUND 10 KNOTS EXCEPT
LOCALLY HIGHER IN THUNDERSTORMS. FOR THURSDAY WINDS WILL BE W/NW
AROUND 10 KNOTS GUSTING 15 TO 20 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT.
.OUTLOOK...
THU AFTN-EVE...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT AVP OTHERWISE VFR.
FRI-SAT...RESTRICTIONS PSBL AGAIN...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SAT NGT-SUN NGT...MAINLY VFR.
MON...RESTRICTIONS PSBL AGAIN...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...PCF/TAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1057 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA. THE PRIMARY THREAT OF
STRONGER STORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY RETURNS FOR THURSDAY BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE BY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD, ESPECIALLY BY NEXT
WEEKEND AS DRIER, SUNNIER WEATHER RETURN WITH HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1042 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH MOVED INTO ST LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE AFTERNOON WEAKENED WHILE
ADVANCING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA EARLIER
THIS EVENING. MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE SINCE DEVELOPED IN
ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY BEING SUPPORTED
BY MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS.
STRONGEST STORMS TO THIS POINT HAVE BEEN PASSING SOUTH OF BTV CWA.
THERE IS PLENTY OF LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR PRESENT AND WE DO HAVE SOME
FORCING WITH CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF FRONT...BUT THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS.
HAVE KEPT IN MENTION OF SOME GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL FOR NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW YORK AND WESTERN
VERMONT...BUT FOR THE MOST PART JUST EXPECT SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
THUNDER AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. FAST MOVEMENT OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD MITIGATE HYDRO CONCERNS. MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO
HOURLY POPS AND WEATHER GRIDS FOR NEXT FEW HOURS WITH LATEST
UPDATE TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS...OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 322 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...BY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT A
WELCOME RETURN TO A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST INTO THE REGION. THERE COULD BE A STRAY LIGHT
SHOWER/SPRINKLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH WEAK ENERGY SKIRTING THE INTL BORDER WITH TROUGH DEPARTURE.
HOWEVER, THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED. HIGHS SIMILAR TO
TODAY AND SEASONABLY WARM (M70S TO LOWER 80S) WITH LOWS BY FRIDAY
MORNING MAINLY IN THE 50S.
BY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NEXT OUR NEXT SYSTEM IN THE PIPELINE ARRIVES
FROM THE WEST IN FAST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH
THIS FEATURE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, BUT DO APPEAR TO SUFFER FROM
SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES IN REGARD TO MASS FIELDS AND
RESULTANT QPF OUTPUT. CONSENSUS SHOWING AT LEAST MODESTLY CONFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT WOULD SUPPORT A SOMEWHAT WEAKER SYSTEM, THOUGH IT DOES
APPEAR A TIGHT INSTABILITY GRADIENT WILL LIE JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
THUS PRIOR IDEA OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH A FEW
THUNDESTORMS STILL LOOKS PLAUSIBLE AT THIS POINT, WITH HIGHEST STORM
THREAT GENERALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD KEEP WITH PRIOR TRENDS, AVERAGING ABOUT 2-5
DEGREES ABOVE LATE SPRING SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 322 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LINGERING SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS
THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. RIDGING WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT, RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING, INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE NROTH COUNTRY
AND ALLOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO
APPROACH. MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON TIMING OF RIDGE SLIDING INTO
THE ATLANTIC AND THEREFORE THE EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER, GFS AND ECMWF DO HAVE SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
SO WHEN THE UNSETTLED WEATHER STARTS, IT WILL CONTINUE SOMETIME
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...IT WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR SHOULD PREDOMINATE BUT WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY IN SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.
INITIAL AREAS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE TAFS THROUGH 02Z. LOTS OF QUESTIONS
REGARDING WHAT UNFOLDS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WHERE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING. LATEST HRRR BRINGS A LINE OF
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY BETWEEN
02-05Z. I THINK THE BEST CHANCE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOCALIZED TURBULENCE/GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE AT SLK AND MSS, WITH A
MORE LIMITED RISK FURTHER EAST. SO I`VE TEMPO`D 3-4SM TSRA FOR
ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR RUT AND MPV WHERE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
LOWEST. VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS (850MB WINDS 50 KTS) SUGGEST
LLWS WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHERE FLOW CAN DECOUPLE.
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS, THOUGH LOCALLY/BRIEFLY HIGHER
IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
FRONTAL ZONE SHIFTS EASTWARD EARLY IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH
VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST/WEST AND GUSTING TO
20-22 KTS.
OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... SFC HIGH PRES AND BREEZY
WINDS WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY. NEXT SFC LOW
PRES WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT OUR TAF
SITES ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS/STORMS ON FRIDAY NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES WITH VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL ON SAT AFTN INTO MONDAY WITH SOME FOG/BR POTENTIAL ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 322 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...RIVERS AND SMALLER STREAMS CONTINUE
TO RECEDE THIS AFTERNOON AFTER ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WHILE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, FASTER MOVEMENT OF ACTIVITY ALONG WITH
SMALLER FOOTPRINTS OF HEAVIER PCPN SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE
ADDITIONAL RISES/HIGH WATER ISSUES.
&&
.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO
20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS THIS
EVENING AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 1 TO 3
FEET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BROAD LAKE AND ALONG SOUTH FACING
SHORES. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWEST AND DECREASE THURSDAY MORNING TO
10 TO 20 KNOTS...WITH WAVES DECREASING TO 1 TO 2 FEET.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...TABER/LOCONTO
HYDROLOGY...JMG
MARINE...MUCCILLI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1017 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE NORTH...AND A FEW SHOWERS FOR SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY AIR WILL RETURN FOR
WEDNESDAY BRINGING WARM AIR AND SUNNY SKIES. LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING RAIN BACK TO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
1015 PM UPDATE...AS EARLIER THOUGHT...THUNDERSTORMS FIRED AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE LAST COUPLE HOURS WITHIN A STRONGLY
FORCED...SHEARED...BUT ONLY WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. SCATTERED
STORMS HAVE GONE SEVERE ACROSS OUR NORTH COUNTRY WITH A WIND
THREAT AS MAIN CONCERN. SVR WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM...AND ALL
LOOKS GOOD WITH TIMING AND IMPACT AREAS. MESO MODELS SUGGEST RAPID
WANING AFTER 06Z AS FORCING LIFTS NORTHEAST AND STORMS DROP SOUTH.
GENERAL POP/WX IDEA STILL ON TARGET. NO OTHER CHANGES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
GROWING CONCERN THIS EVENING THAT A STRONG...DYNAMICALLY FORCED
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO A DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL LEAD TO NEW DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN OUR
AREA. MODEST LOW LEVEL WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION...AS SEEN IN
THETA-E FIELDS...WAS STEEPENING LOW-MID LVL LAPSE RATES OVER THE
REGION. 500-300 MB JET STREAK ADVANCING ON THE AREA FROM LOWER
ONTARIO WAS PROVIDING OVER 50 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...AND EVEN
TURNING IN THE LOW LEVELS IS PRESENT WHICH COULD SUPPORT STRONG
UPDRAFTS AND A SMALL CHANCE FOR HEALTHY MESOCYCLONES. MESOSCALE
MODELS SUGGEST NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE 02Z-06Z TIME
FRAME JUST AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS WRN NEW
YORK...AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE. REALLY LIKE THE NAM4KM AND
CANADIAN RGEM IDEAS...ALTHOUGH HRRR AND WRF-NMM ALSO SEEM TO HAVE
SIMILAR SOLUTIONS.
THE MAIN SHORT WAVE FORCING LOOKS TO AFFECT MAINLY OUR NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH IS WHERE WE ARE EXPECTING ANY
OF THE STRONGER STORMS TO BE...SAY ROUGHLY FROM PEO-SYR-UCA...WITH
MORE GENERAL TSTM ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH...IF IT CAN MAKE IT.
BULK OF FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A 02Z-07Z WINDOW OF BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...INCLUDING ANY SVR POTENTIAL.
FORECAST CHANGES FROM THIS AFTERNOON FEATURE INCREASED POPS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES TO LIKELY-CATEGORICAL AT TIMES...WITH A RAPID
DROP OFF TO NEAR ZERO CHANCES FOR RAIN IN NORTHEAST PA THROUGH THE
NIGHT. HIGHER POP AREAS WERE ALSO GIVEN ENHANCED HAIL...GUSTY
WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...FQT LIGHTNING TERMINOLOGY.
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
REMAINS OF THE FNT COULD TRIGGER SOME CONV OVER THE NEPA ZONES
DURING THU...ESP CNSRDG THE HTG XPCTD. FCST SNDGS...ESP THE
NAM...SHOW AVBL ENERGY FOR CONV TMRW AFTN. LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE
THE VERY DRY AIR...AND A MORE STABLE MID LYR SHOWN ON THE MODELS.
INTRSTG TEMP FCST FOR NEPA WITH THE MET GUID GIVING AVP 90F. WITH
THE BLENDED GUID STILL GOT AN 88F FOR AVP SO IT WILL BE A WRM DAY.
WEAK RDGG SFC AND ALFOT FOR FRI AS A WV AND SFC LOW DEEPEN TO THE
WEST. SOME ISLTD CONV PSBL IN THE DIRTY RDG AND MORE CLDS SHD
LIMIT THE HTG BY A FEW DEGREES OVER NEPA.
BEST JET DYNAMCS PASS NORTH OF NY FRI NGT AND SAT AND SHD BE THE
FOCUS OF HEAVY RAIN...LVG THE FCST AREA IN SCT TO MUMEROUS SHWRS
FROM LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT. HIPRES BLDS IN DURING SAT BRINGING
CLRG SKIES LTR IN THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1 PM UPDATE...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH MULTIPLE FRONTS IN THE VICINITY FOR THE
DURATION. SHOWERS WILL BE COMMON AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE NORMAL. SAT NGT TO SUN NGT FAIRLY DRY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND. A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH
NE TOWARDS THE AREA FOR MONDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY THEN PUSH THROUGH WED.
FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. NOTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE FOR WEATHER THIS
FAR OUT.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING SE FROM
WESTERN NY AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. CURRENTLY,
JUST A FEW STRONG STORMS ON RADAR BUT INDICATIONS THESE MAY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE..ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN SITES SO WE HAVE
INCLUDED THE MENTION OF STORMS IN THE TAFS FOR KITH/KSYR/KRME FOR
LATER THIS EVENING AFTER 2Z. IF STORMS DO MATERIALIZE FOR THESE
AREAS, AT LEAST MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY IF NOT IFR. FOR
KELM/KBGM, LESS CERTAINTY IF STORMS WILL OCCUR HOWEVER
RESTRICTIONS IN VISBY ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT FOR KELM WITH MVFR VIS.
SHOWERS/STORMS ACTIVITY SHOULD MISS KAVP TO THE NORTH WITH VFR
CONTINUING. IN ADDITION TO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS STORMS ALSO HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS. SHOWERS/STORMS
EXIT BY LATER TONIGHT WITH VFR FOR THURSDAY UNDER A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS. ONE EXCEPTION COULD BE KAVP WHERE A FEW STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT MOST LIKELY THESE STAY SOUTH.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE S/SW TONIGHT AROUND 10 KNOTS EXCEPT
LOCALLY HIGHER IN THUNDERSTORMS. FOR THURSDAY WINDS WILL BE W/NW
AROUND 10 KNOTS GUSTING 15 TO 20 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT.
.OUTLOOK...
THU AFTN-EVE...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT AVP OTHERWISE VFR.
FRI-SAT...RESTRICTIONS PSBL AGAIN...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SAT NGT-SUN NGT...MAINLY VFR.
MON...RESTRICTIONS PSBL AGAIN...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...PCF/TAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
807 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE NORTH...AND A FEW SHOWERS FOR SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY AIR WILL RETURN FOR
WEDNESDAY BRINGING WARM AIR AND SUNNY SKIES. LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING RAIN BACK TO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
GROWING CONCERN THIS EVENING THAT A STRONG...DYNAMICALLY FORCED
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO A DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL LEAD TO NEW DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN OUR
AREA. MODEST LOW LEVEL WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION...AS SEEN IN
THETA-E FIELDS...WAS STEEPENING LOW-MID LVL LAPSE RATES OVER THE
REGION. 500-300 MB JET STREAK ADVANCING ON THE AREA FROM LOWER
ONTARIO WAS PROVIDING OVER 50 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...AND EVEN
TURNING IN THE LOW LEVELS IS PRESENT WHICH COULD SUPPORT STRONG
UPDRAFTS AND A SMALL CHANCE FOR HEALTHY MESOCYCLONES. MESOSCALE
MODELS SUGGEST NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE 02Z-06Z TIME
FRAME JUST AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS WRN NEW
YORK...AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE. REALLY LIKE THE NAM4KM AND
CANADIAN RGEM IDEAS...ALTHOUGH HRRR AND WRF-NMM ALSO SEEM TO HAVE
SIMILAR SOLUTIONS.
THE MAIN SHORT WAVE FORCING LOOKS TO AFFECT MAINLY OUR NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH IS WHERE WE ARE EXPECTING ANY
OF THE STRONGER STORMS TO BE...SAY ROUGHLY FROM PEO-SYR-UCA...WITH
MORE GENERAL TSTM ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH...IF IT CAN MAKE IT.
BULK OF FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A 02Z-07Z WINDOW OF BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...INCLUDING ANY SVR POTENTIAL.
FORECAST CHANGES FROM THIS AFTERNOON FEATURE INCREASED POPS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES TO LIKELY-CATEGORICAL AT TIMES...WITH A RAPID
DROP OFF TO NEAR ZERO CHANCES FOR RAIN IN NORTHEAST PA THROUGH THE
NIGHT. HIGHER POP AREAS WERE ALSO GIVEN ENHANCED HAIL...GUSTY
WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...FQT LIGHTNING TERMINOLOGY.
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
REMAINS OF THE FNT COULD TRIGGER SOME CONV OVER THE NEPA ZONES
DURING THU...ESP CNSRDG THE HTG XPCTD. FCST SNDGS...ESP THE
NAM...SHOW AVBL ENERGY FOR CONV TMRW AFTN. LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE
THE VERY DRY AIR...AND A MORE STABLE MID LYR SHOWN ON THE MODELS.
INTRSTG TEMP FCST FOR NEPA WITH THE MET GUID GIVING AVP 90F. WITH
THE BLENDED GUID STILL GOT AN 88F FOR AVP SO IT WILL BE A WRM DAY.
WEAK RDGG SFC AND ALFOT FOR FRI AS A WV AND SFC LOW DEEPEN TO THE
WEST. SOME ISLTD CONV PSBL IN THE DIRTY RDG AND MORE CLDS SHD
LIMIT THE HTG BY A FEW DEGREES OVER NEPA.
BEST JET DYNAMCS PASS NORTH OF NY FRI NGT AND SAT AND SHD BE THE
FOCUS OF HEAVY RAIN...LVG THE FCST AREA IN SCT TO MUMEROUS SHWRS
FROM LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT. HIPRES BLDS IN DURING SAT BRINGING
CLRG SKIES LTR IN THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1 PM UPDATE...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH MULTIPLE FRONTS IN THE VICINITY FOR THE
DURATION. SHOWERS WILL BE COMMON AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE NORMAL. SAT NGT TO SUN NGT FAIRLY DRY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND. A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH
NE TOWARDS THE AREA FOR MONDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY THEN PUSH THROUGH WED.
FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. NOTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE FOR WEATHER THIS
FAR OUT.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING SE FROM
WESTERN NY AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. CURRENTLY,
JUST A FEW STRONG STORMS ON RADAR BUT INDICATIONS THESE MAY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE..ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN SITES SO WE HAVE
INCLUDED THE MENTION OF STORMS IN THE TAFS FOR KITH/KSYR/KRME FOR
LATER THIS EVENING AFTER 2Z. IF STORMS DO MATERIALIZE FOR THESE
AREAS, AT LEAST MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY IF NOT IFR. FOR
KELM/KBGM, LESS CERTAINTY IF STORMS WILL OCCUR HOWEVER
RESTRICTIONS IN VISBY ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT FOR KELM WITH MVFR VIS.
SHOWERS/STORMS ACTIVITY SHOULD MISS KAVP TO THE NORTH WITH VFR
CONTINUING. IN ADDITION TO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS STORMS ALSO HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS. SHOWERS/STORMS
EXIT BY LATER TONIGHT WITH VFR FOR THURSDAY UNDER A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS. ONE EXCEPTION COULD BE KAVP WHERE A FEW STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT MOST LIKELY THESE STAY SOUTH.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE S/SW TONIGHT AROUND 10 KNOTS EXCEPT
LOCALLY HIGHER IN THUNDERSTORMS. FOR THURSDAY WINDS WILL BE W/NW
AROUND 10 KNOTS GUSTING 15 TO 20 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT.
.OUTLOOK...
THU AFTN-EVE...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT AVP OTHERWISE VFR.
FRI-SAT...RESTRICTIONS PSBL AGAIN...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SAT NGT-SUN NGT...MAINLY VFR.
MON...RESTRICTIONS PSBL AGAIN...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB/DGM
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...PCF/TAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
733 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA. THE PRIMARY THREAT OF
STRONGER STORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY RETURNS FOR THURSDAY BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE BY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD, ESPECIALLY BY NEXT
WEEKEND AS DRIER, SUNNIER WEATHER RETURN WITH HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 731 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
MOVED INTO ST LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE AFTERNOON HAS WEAKENED WHILE
ADVANCING EAST INTO NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY THIS EVENING. AMOUNT
OF LIGHTNING IN THIS FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION HAS DECREASED TO
ALMOST NIL. PRECIPITATION INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE...AND CELLS MOVING QUICKLY ENOUGH SO AS NOT
TO PRODUCE MORE THAN A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL. MORE SHOWERS AND
STORMS FURTHER WEST HOWEVER...ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND SUPPORTED BY MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY. STRONGEST
STORMS TO THIS POINT APPEAR AS IF THEY WILL TRACK SOUTH OF BTV
CWA. BUT HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THIS WILL EVOLVE INTO A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS DURING THE EVENING AND TRACK
QUICKLY EAST OVERNIGHT. MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY POPS AND
WEATHER GRIDS FOR THIS EVENING BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND
TRENDS...BUT THE OVERALL FORECAST IS STILL IN GOOD SHAPE. WHILE
THERE IS PLENTY OF LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR PRESENT AND WE DO HAVE SOME
FORCING WITH CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF FRONT...THE LACK OF INSTABILITY
SHOULD PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. HAVE KEPT IN
MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN NEW
YORK WHERE INSTABILITY GREATEST. FURTHER EAST...EXPECT MAINLY JUST
A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST THINKING AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. ROBUST UPPER ENERGY ALONG THE CENTRAL
QUEBEC/ONTARIO BORDER WILL TRACK EASTWARD, PUSHING A SURFACE
TROUGH INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WHILE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS LIMITED, INCREASING LOW TO MID LEVEL
SHEAR ALONG WITH MODEST FORCING FROM CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH
BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN NEW YORK COUNTIES THIS EVENING, WITH ACTIVITY
WEAKENING AS IT PROGRESSES INTO VERMONT DUE TO LOSS OF
INSOLATION/INSTABILITY. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM ANY ENHANCED
CONVECTION WOULD BE GUSTY TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS GIVEN A DEEPLY
MIXED AND FAIRLY DRY PBL WHICH WOULD TEND TO FOSTER AMPLE DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM TRANSPORT. AS ALLUDED TO IN THE LATE MORNING UPDATE, THE
THREAT IS STILL CONDITIONAL AT THIS POINT, WITH ENOUGH MIXED
SIGNALS/UNCERTAINTY FROM CAM/GUIDANCE OUTPUT TO SUGGEST THE THREAT
IS NOT A FOREGONE CONCLUSION. LOW TEMPERATURES A BLEND OF SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE, SHOWING MINIMUMS GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S UNDER MODESTLY GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN THE
ST LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 322 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...BY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT A
WELCOME RETURN TO A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST INTO THE REGION. THERE COULD BE A STRAY LIGHT
SHOWER/SPRINKLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH WEAK ENERGY SKIRTING THE INTL BORDER WITH TROUGH DEPARTURE.
HOWEVER, THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED. HIGHS SIMILAR TO
TODAY AND SEASONABLY WARM (M70S TO LOWER 80S) WITH LOWS BY FRIDAY
MORNING MAINLY IN THE 50S.
BY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NEXT OUR NEXT SYSTEM IN THE PIPELINE ARRIVES
FROM THE WEST IN FAST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH
THIS FEATURE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, BUT DO APPEAR TO SUFFER FROM
SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES IN REGARD TO MASS FIELDS AND
RESULTANT QPF OUTPUT. CONSENSUS SHOWING AT LEAST MODESTLY CONFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT WOULD SUPPORT A SOMEWHAT WEAKER SYSTEM, THOUGH IT DOES
APPEAR A TIGHT INSTABILITY GRADIENT WILL LIE JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
THUS PRIOR IDEA OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH A FEW
THUNDESTORMS STILL LOOKS PLAUSIBLE AT THIS POINT, WITH HIGHEST STORM
THREAT GENERALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD KEEP WITH PRIOR TRENDS, AVERAGING ABOUT 2-5
DEGREES ABOVE LATE SPRING SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 322 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LINGERING SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS
THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. RIDGING WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT, RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING, INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE NROTH COUNTRY
AND ALLOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO
APPROACH. MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON TIMING OF RIDGE SLIDING INTO
THE ATLANTIC AND THEREFORE THE EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER, GFS AND ECMWF DO HAVE SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
SO WHEN THE UNSETTLED WEATHER STARTS, IT WILL CONTINUE SOMETIME
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...IT WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR SHOULD PREDOMINATE BUT WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY IN SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.
INITIAL AREAS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE TAFS THROUGH 02Z. LOTS OF QUESTIONS
REGARDING WHAT UNFOLDS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WHERE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING. LATEST HRRR BRINGS A LINE OF
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY BETWEEN
02-05Z. I THINK THE BEST CHANCE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOCALIZED TURBULENCE/GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE AT SLK AND MSS, WITH A
MORE LIMITED RISK FURTHER EAST. SO I`VE TEMPO`D 3-4SM TSRA FOR
ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR RUT AND MPV WHERE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
LOWEST. VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS (850MB WINDS 50 KTS) SUGGEST
LLWS WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHERE FLOW CAN DECOUPLE.
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS, THOUGH LOCALLY/BRIEFLY HIGHER
IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
FRONTAL ZONE SHIFTS EASTWARD EARLY IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH
VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST/WEST AND GUSTING TO
20-22 KTS.
OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... SFC HIGH PRES AND BREEZY
WINDS WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY. NEXT SFC LOW
PRES WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT OUR TAF
SITES ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS/STORMS ON FRIDAY NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES WITH VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL ON SAT AFTN INTO MONDAY WITH SOME FOG/BR POTENTIAL ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 322 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...RIVERS AND SMALLER STREAMS CONTINUE
TO RECEDE THIS AFTERNOON AFTER ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WHILE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, FASTER MOVEMENT OF ACTIVITY ALONG WITH
SMALLER FOOTPRINTS OF HEAVIER PCPN SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE
ADDITIONAL RISES/HIGH WATER ISSUES.
&&
.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO
20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS THIS
EVENING AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 1 TO 3
FEET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BROAD LAKE AND ALONG SOUTH FACING
SHORES. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWEST AND DECREASE THURSDAY MORNING TO
10 TO 20 KNOTS...WITH WAVES DECREASING TO 1 TO 2 FEET.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG/RJS
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...TABER/LOCONTO
HYDROLOGY...JMG
MARINE...MUCCILLI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
728 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA. THE PRIMARY THREAT OF
STRONGER STORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY RETURNS FOR THURSDAY BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE BY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD, ESPECIALLY BY NEXT
WEEKEND AS DRIER, SUNNIER WEATHER RETURN WITH HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 322 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST
THINKING AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ROBUST UPPER ENERGY ALONG THE CENTRAL QUEBEC/ONTARIO BORDER WILL
TRACK EASTWARD, PUSHING A SURFACE TROUGH INTO THE REGION THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS
LIMITED, INCREASING LOW TO MID LEVEL SHEAR ALONG WITH MODEST
FORCING FROM CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH BOUNDARY SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS OUR NORTHERN NEW
YORK COUNTIES THIS EVENING, WITH ACTIVITY WEAKENING AS IT
PROGRESSES INTO VERMONT DUE TO LOSS OF INSOLATION/INSTABILITY. THE
PRIMARY THREAT FROM ANY ENHANCED CONVECTION WOULD BE GUSTY TO
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS GIVEN A DEEPLY MIXED AND FAIRLY DRY PBL WHICH
WOULD TEND TO FOSTER AMPLE DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT. AS ALLUDED
TO IN THE LATE MORNING UPDATE, THE THREAT IS STILL CONDITIONAL AT
THIS POINT, WITH ENOUGH MIXED SIGNALS/UNCERTAINTY FROM
CAM/GUIDANCE OUTPUT TO SUGGEST THE THREAT IS NOT A FOREGONE
CONCLUSION. LOW TEMPERATURES A BLEND OF SHORT TERM GUIDANCE,
SHOWING MINIMUMS GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S UNDER
MODESTLY GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN THE ST
LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 322 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...BY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT A
WELCOME RETURN TO A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST INTO THE REGION. THERE COULD BE A STRAY LIGHT
SHOWER/SPRINKLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH WEAK ENERGY SKIRTING THE INTL BORDER WITH TROUGH DEPARTURE.
HOWEVER, THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED. HIGHS SIMILAR TO
TODAY AND SEASONABLY WARM (M70S TO LOWER 80S) WITH LOWS BY FRIDAY
MORNING MAINLY IN THE 50S.
BY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NEXT OUR NEXT SYSTEM IN THE PIPELINE ARRIVES
FROM THE WEST IN FAST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH
THIS FEATURE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, BUT DO APPEAR TO SUFFER FROM
SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES IN REGARD TO MASS FIELDS AND
RESULTANT QPF OUTPUT. CONSENSUS SHOWING AT LEAST MODESTLY CONFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT WOULD SUPPORT A SOMEWHAT WEAKER SYSTEM, THOUGH IT DOES
APPEAR A TIGHT INSTABILITY GRADIENT WILL LIE JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
THUS PRIOR IDEA OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH A FEW
THUNDESTORMS STILL LOOKS PLAUSIBLE AT THIS POINT, WITH HIGHEST STORM
THREAT GENERALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD KEEP WITH PRIOR TRENDS, AVERAGING ABOUT 2-5
DEGREES ABOVE LATE SPRING SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 322 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LINGERING SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS
THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. RIDGING WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT, RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING, INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE NROTH COUNTRY
AND ALLOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO
APPROACH. MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON TIMING OF RIDGE SLIDING INTO
THE ATLANTIC AND THEREFORE THE EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER, GFS AND ECMWF DO HAVE SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
SO WHEN THE UNSETTLED WEATHER STARTS, IT WILL CONTINUE SOMETIME
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...IT WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR SHOULD PREDOMINATE BUT WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY IN SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.
INITIAL AREAS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE TAFS THROUGH 02Z. LOTS OF QUESTIONS
REGARDING WHAT UNFOLDS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WHERE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING. LATEST HRRR BRINGS A LINE OF
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY BETWEEN
02-05Z. I THINK THE BEST CHANCE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOCALIZED TURBULENCE/GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE AT SLK AND MSS, WITH A
MORE LIMITED RISK FURTHER EAST. SO I`VE TEMPO`D 3-4SM TSRA FOR
ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR RUT AND MPV WHERE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
LOWEST. VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS (850MB WINDS 50 KTS) SUGGEST
LLWS WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHERE FLOW CAN DECOUPLE.
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS, THOUGH LOCALLY/BRIEFLY HIGHER
IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
FRONTAL ZONE SHIFTS EASTWARD EARLY IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH
VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST/WEST AND GUSTING TO
20-22 KTS.
OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... SFC HIGH PRES AND BREEZY
WINDS WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY. NEXT SFC LOW
PRES WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT OUR TAF
SITES ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS/STORMS ON FRIDAY NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES WITH VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL ON SAT AFTN INTO MONDAY WITH SOME FOG/BR POTENTIAL ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 322 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...RIVERS AND SMALLER STREAMS CONTINUE
TO RECEDE THIS AFTERNOON AFTER ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WHILE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, FASTER MOVEMENT OF ACTIVITY ALONG WITH
SMALLER FOOTPRINTS OF HEAVIER PCPN SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE
ADDITIONAL RISES/HIGH WATER ISSUES.
&&
.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO
20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS THIS
EVENING AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 1 TO 3
FEET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BROAD LAKE AND ALONG SOUTH FACING
SHORES. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWEST AND DECREASE THURSDAY MORNING TO
10 TO 20 KNOTS...WITH WAVES DECREASING TO 1 TO 2 FEET.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...TABER/LOCONTO
HYDROLOGY...JMG
MARINE...MUCCILLI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1257 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WAVES OF SHOWERS WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
EVENING WITH A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL EXPECTED. AFTER A BRIEF
RETURN OF DRIER WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING,
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN BY LATER WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD, AS THE REGION GENERALLY REMAINS UNDER MILD SOUTHERLY
WINDS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1257 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
AREAS OF SHOWERS LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.
THUS GOING FORECAST OF OCCASIONAL SHOWERS LOOKS REAL GOOD FOR THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDER
OVERNIGHT AS INSTABILITY IS LACKING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...BY TOMORROW A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL
BEGIN SWINGING INTO THE REGION, AND PROVIDE IMPETUS TO PUSH THE
DEEPER MOISTURE BAND STEADILY EAST. STILL LOOKING AT PLENTY OF
CLOUDS HOWEVER, AND WITH ADDED ENERGY FROM FRONT-END 100KT JET AT
250 MB WE`RE STILL EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA, MOST CONCENTRATED FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS EAST INTO VERMONT ONCE AGAIN IF YOU BELIEVE THE
BLENDED MODEL OUTPUT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS FROM A QUARTER TO
A HALF AN INCH WITH SCATTERED HIGHER AMOUNTS LOOK REASONABLE,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SEE ANY STORMS. HIGHS REMAINING
SEASONABLY MILD AND SIMILAR TO TODAY, MAINLY UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
UPPER TROUGH THEN SWINGS THROUGH BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD
EVENING SHOWERS TAPERING OFF AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. LOW
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RANGING THROUGH THE 50S BY THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE AS WE PROGRESS INTO
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
AND ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION.
SREF/MOS BLENDED QPF OUTPUT WOULD SUGGEST BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TO OCCUR ACROSS OUR NORTHERN NEW YORK COUNTIES DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH ACTIVITY PUSHING INTO VERMONT BY EARLY
EVENING ONWARD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME MODEST INSTABILITY AND
INCREASING LOW TO MID LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES COULD LEAD TO SOME
ORGANIZATION INTO A FEW STORM CLUSTERS FROM THE ADIRONDACKS WEST
INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE EPISODE.
THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS
HIGHS CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 238 PM EDT MONDAY...OVERALL DEVELOPING PATTERN
IS SOME RIDGING INTO SOUTHEAST/EAST CONUS BUT WITH FORECAST AREA
BEING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY AND WITH NORTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCES IN A STUBBORN TROFINESS PATTERN TO OUR NORTH THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO MORE DISTURBED WEATHER.
WE START OUT THIS LONG TERM WITH ONE SUCH SYSTEM EXITING OUR REGION
ON THU FOLLOWED BY SOME WEAK RIDGING AND MAINLY DRY ON FRIDAY THEN
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE FRI NGT/SAT WITH MORE RAINFALL. LARGE SCALE
RIDGING RETURNS ON SUNDAY THUS DRY SUNDAY BUT ANOTHER POSSIBLE
THREAT OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH OVC CEILINGS SHOULD PREVAIL
THOUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD, THOUGH HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY BRIEFLY
REDUCE VISIBILITY TO IFR OR LOWER.
A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY NOW ACROSS THE TAFS, AND THOSE
CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. THEREAFTER ADDITIONAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE LINE OVER
THE HUDSON VALLEY BASED ON HRRR AND BTV-4 WRF OUTPUT. I`VE SHOWN
5-6 SM -SHRA THROUGH 11-13Z. THERE LOOKS TO BE A BREAK UNTIL AREAS
OF SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDER RE-DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
PRIMARILY FOR SLK AND POINTS EAST. SPECIFIC TIMING STILL IS A BIT
UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT, BUT I`VE SHOWN 4 SM SHRA AFTER 19Z TO SHOW
SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.
WINDS SOUTH AROUND 10 KNOTS INITIALLY, BUT STEADILY LOWER INTO THE
EVENING AS GRADIENT CONTINUES TO RELAX. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY AFTN INTO WEDS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS
ACROSS OUR REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL RESULT IN DRYING
CONDITIONS ON WEDS...WITH VFR DEVELOPING. SOME LINGERING MVFR CIGS
ARE LIKELY AT MPV/SLK THRU WEDS MORNING. A WEAK FRONT WILL PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE WEDS INTO THURSDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRES AND
IFR RETURNS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE
RECENT RAINFALL AND SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS...IF MORE CLEARING
AND LIGHT WINDS DEVELOP...PATCHY FOG/BR WILL BE POSSIBLE ANY
MORNING AT MPV/SLK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE CONVECTIVE RAINFALL ON HOURLY
TIME SCALES AND RESULTANT FLASH FLOOD THREAT STILL APPEARS MINIMAL
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT TWO DAY
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2
INCHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SCATTERED AMOUNTS NEARING
THREE INCHES FROM THE ADIRONDACKS INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN VERMONT. THESE TOTALS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND MAY ELEVATE THE THREAT OF MINOR/NUISANCE
FLOODING ISSUES. RIVERS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO SHARPER RISES DURING
THIS EVENT ARE THE AUSABLE, MISSISQUOI, LAMOILLE, AND POSSIBLY THE
PASSUMPSIC AND WINOOSKI.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...TABER/LOCONTO
HYDROLOGY...JMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
650 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL SLIP
INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AND THEN WASH OUT ON WEDNESDAY. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THIS WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 340 AM TUESDAY...
OUT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION...A
BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO CROSSES CENTRAL NC THIS
MORNING...THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A WEAKENING TREND OVER THE PAST HOUR
OR SO AS EMBEDDED MCVS MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND NOCTURNAL
DESTABILIZATION...ALBEIT SLOW OWING TO A MOIST SOUTHERLY
WIND...CONTINUES. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO MOVE EAST INTO THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND DIMINISH THROUGH MID-MORNING PER RECENT HRRR RUNS.
TODAY...RESIDUAL OUTFLOW/TROUGHING FROM THE MORNING`S CONVECTION
SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS MAINLY THE
COASTAL PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON AMIDST 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE AND PW OF
1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WESTERLY
FLOW AND DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR SHOULD LEAD TO A SHARP GRADIENT IN
MOISTURE WITH MUCH DRIER PROFILES AND LESS INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. FOLLOWING A DRIER TREND IN THE MODELS...WILL JUST INCLUDE
A SLIGHT CHANCE WEST OF US 1 AND HIGHER CHANCE POPS IN THE I-95
CORRIDOR.
THICKNESSES ARE ABOUT 5 METERS HIGHER TODAY AND HIGHS SHOULD BE A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER FOR MOST AREAS....88-91.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM TUESDAY...
A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SLIP INTO THE
AREA ESSENTIALLY MERGE WITH THE LEE TROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE WASHING
OUT ON WEDNESDAY. OUTSIDE OF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT...THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE DRY AND THE ONLY CHANGE IN
AIRMASS WILL BE A BRIEF DROP IN DEWPOINTS. WILL INCLUDE JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S NORTH
TO NEAR 70 SOUTH.
WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL EXIST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF OVER THE GOMEX AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEGINS
TO BUILD BACK WEST ACROSS OUR REGION. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL
ZONE WILL WASH OUT ON WEDNESDAY AND HUMIDITY WILL BEGIN A GENERAL
RISE THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. CONVECTION
POTENTIAL WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST CWA WHERE THE
SEABREEZE WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORCING WITH. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
AND LOWER 90S BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY...
THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING WILL
STRENGTHEN AND EXPAND WEST FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO THE SOUTHEAST US
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THOUGH MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN REGARDING THE
STRENGTH AND PERSISTENCE OF THE RIDGE OWING IN LARGE PART TO
DIFFERENCES IN AMPLITUDE AND POSITIONING OF PERTURBED AND CONFLUENT
SPLIT STREAM FLOW ALONG THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US/CANADIAN BORDER.
THE ECMWF REMAINS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE EQUATOR-WARD PUSH OF A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES SUN-
MON...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME IT INTERESTINGLY BECOMES STRONGER THAN
OTHER GUIDANCE WITH A 324 DM 700 MB RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. INCONSISTENCY WITH THE ASSOCIATED MASS FIELDS
SUGGESTS AN ADJUSTMENT TOWARD A WEAKER SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OR
NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE FRONTAL POSITIONING WILL BE EVIDENT IN FUTURE
MODEL RUNS. AN ADJUSTMENT TO BOTH WILL BE MOST LIKELY...SINCE 324 DM
BECOMES PARTICULARLY ANOMALOUS RELATIVE TO OTHER GUIDANCE THAT
MAINTAINS THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUT WITH LESSER STRENGTH. THE
RESULTANT SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACT WOULD YIELD A FRONTAL POSITIONING
THAT SHOULD HOLD NORTH OF THE CAROLINAS...AND ALLOW THE RELATIVELY
HOT...AND DRY CONDITIONS AWAY FROM THE SEA BREEZE (INCLUDING AROUND
SAMPSON COUNTY) AND ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE...TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 650 AM TUESDAY...
CONVECTION CROSSING CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA
AND WEAKENED DRAMATICALLY...LEAVING A FEW AREAS OF LOW
STRATUS...INCLUDING LIFR/IFR AT KINT/KGSO. THESE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
LIFT BY MID-MORNING AND GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KRDU/KRWI/KFAY...WITH
JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF KRDU. WHILE THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF
INDIVIDUAL STORMS IS UNCERTAIN...RECENT HI-RES MODEL RUNS INDICATED
A BAND SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT
BY LATE MORNING AND IMPACT KFAY BY 18Z. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS BELOW
AVERAGE AT THE MOMENT...BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE AS THE MORNING WEARS ON.
A WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIP INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THIS
EVENING...WHICH COULD TRIGGER A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS...BUT THE
FRONT WILL BE WEAK AND THE CHANCE OF IMPACTS AT TAF SITES IS LOW.
SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
350 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL SLIP
INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AND THEN WASH OUT ON WEDNESDAY. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THIS WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 340 AM TUESDAY...
OUT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION...A
BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO CROSSES CENTRAL NC THIS
MORNING...THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A WEAKENING TREND OVER THE PAST HOUR
OR SO AS EMBEDDED MCVS MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND NOCTURNAL
DESTABILIZATION...ALBEIT SLOW OWING TO A MOIST SOUTHERLY
WIND...CONTINUES. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO MOVE EAST INTO THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND DIMINISH THROUGH MID-MORNING PER RECENT HRRR RUNS.
TODAY...RESIDUAL OUTFLOW/TROUGHING FROM THE MORNING`S CONVECTION
SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS MAINLY THE
COASTAL PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON AMIDST 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE AND PW OF
1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WESTERLY
FLOW AND DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR SHOULD LEAD TO A SHARP GRADIENT IN
MOISTURE WITH MUCH DRIER PROFILES AND LESS INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. FOLLOWING A DRIER TREND IN THE MODELS...WILL JUST INCLUDE
A SLIGHT CHANCE WEST OF US 1 AND HIGHER CHANCE POPS IN THE I-95
CORRIDOR.
THICKNESSES ARE ABOUT 5 METERS HIGHER TODAY AND HIGHS SHOULD BE A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER FOR MOST AREAS....88-91.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM TUESDAY...
A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SLIP INTO THE
AREA ESSENTIALLY MERGE WITH THE LEE TROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE WASHING
OUT ON WEDNESDAY. OUTSIDE OF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT...THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE DRY AND THE ONLY CHANGE IN
AIRMASS WILL BE A BRIEF DROP IN DEWPOINTS. WILL INCLUDE JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S NORTH
TO NEAR 70 SOUTH.
WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL EXIST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF OVER THE GOMEX AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEGINS
TO BUILD BACK WEST ACROSS OUR REGION. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL
ZONE WILL WASH OUT ON WEDNESDAY AND HUMIDITY WILL BEGIN A GENERAL
RISE THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. CONVECTION
POTENTIAL WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST CWA WHERE THE
SEABREEZE WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORCING WITH. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
AND LOWER 90S BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY...
THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING WILL
STRENGTHEN AND EXPAND WEST FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO THE SOUTHEAST US
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THOUGH MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN REGARDING THE
STRENGTH AND PERSISTENCE OF THE RIDGE OWING IN LARGE PART TO
DIFFERENCES IN AMPLITUDE AND POSITIONING OF PERTURBED AND CONFLUENT
SPLIT STREAM FLOW ALONG THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US/CANADIAN BORDER.
THE ECMWF REMAINS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE EQUATOR-WARD PUSH OF A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES SUN-
MON...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME IT INTERESTINGLY BECOMES STRONGER THAN
OTHER GUIDANCE WITH A 324 DM 700 MB RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. INCONSISTENCY WITH THE ASSOCIATED MASS FIELDS
SUGGESTS AN ADJUSTMENT TOWARD A WEAKER SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OR
NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE FRONTAL POSITIONING WILL BE EVIDENT IN FUTURE
MODEL RUNS. AN ADJUSTMENT TO BOTH WILL BE MOST LIKELY...SINCE 324 DM
BECOMES PARTICULARLY ANOMALOUS RELATIVE TO OTHER GUIDANCE THAT
MAINTAINS THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUT WITH LESSER STRENGTH. THE
RESULTANT SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACT WOULD YIELD A FRONTAL POSITIONING
THAT SHOULD HOLD NORTH OF THE CAROLINAS...AND ALLOW THE RELATIVELY
HOT...AND DRY CONDITIONS AWAY FROM THE SEA BREEZE (INCLUDING AROUND
SAMPSON COUNTY) AND ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE...TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 155 AM TUESDAY...
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE PIEDMONT WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES EAST TOWARD THE COASTAL
PLAIN. THE CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM IS GREATEST AT KRDU IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH LESSER CHANCES AT KFAY AND KRWI...BUT A HEAVY
SHOWER WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND GUSTY WINDS IS STILL POSSIBLE.
MEANWHILE...AREAS STRATUS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS...MAINLY STAYING IN THE 1000-2000 FT RANGE BEFORE LIFTING
LATER THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF KRDU...THOUGH CONFIDENCE
IS BELOW AVERAGE GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF SHOWERS ALREADY EARLY THIS
MORNING AND A GENERAL TREND FURTHER EAST IN RECENT MODEL RUNS.
THUS...WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY THUNDER IN THE KFAY TAF AT THIS
TIME...BUT AREAS FROM KFAY TO KRWI WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY.
LOOKING AHEAD: ANY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION STARTING WEDNESDAY...LIMITING AVIATION CONCERNS
PRIMARILY TO EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG...THOUGH AN ISOLATED
STORMS IS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
340 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL SLIP
INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AND THEN WASH OUT ON WEDNESDAY. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THIS WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 340 AM TUESDAY...
OUT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION...A
BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO CROSSES CENTRAL NC THIS
MORNING...THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A WEAKENING TREND OVER THE PAST HOUR
OR SO AS EMBEDDED MCVS MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND NOCTURNAL
DESTABILIZATION...ALBEIT SLOW OWING TO A MOIST SOUTHERLY
WIND...CONTINUES. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO MOVE EAST INTO THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND DIMINISH THROUGH MID-MORNING PER RECENT HRRR RUNS.
TODAY...RESIDUAL OUTFLOW/TROUGHING FROM THE MORNING`S CONVECTION
SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS MAINLY THE
COASTAL PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON AMIDST 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE AND PW OF
1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WESTERLY
FLOW AND DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR SHOULD LEAD TO A SHARP GRADIENT IN
MOISTURE WITH MUCH DRIER PROFILES AND LESS INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. FOLLOWING A DRIER TREND IN THE MODELS...WILL JUST INCLUDE
A SLIGHT CHANCE WEST OF US 1 AND HIGHER CHANCE POPS IN THE I-95
CORRIDOR.
THICKNESSES ARE ABOUT 5 METERS HIGHER TODAY AND HIGHS SHOULD BE A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER FOR MOST AREAS....88-91.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM TUESDAY...
A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SLIP INTO THE
AREA ESSENTIALLY MERGE WITH THE LEE TROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE WASHING
OUT ON WEDNESDAY. OUTSIDE OF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT...THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE DRY AND THE ONLY CHANGE IN
AIRMASS WILL BE A BRIEF DROP IN DEWPOINTS. WILL INCLUDE JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S NORTH
TO NEAR 70 SOUTH.
WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL EXIST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF OVER THE GOMEX AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEGINS
TO BUILD BACK WEST ACROSS OUR REGION. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL
ZONE WILL WASH OUT ON WEDNESDAY AND HUMIDITY WILL BEGIN A GENERAL
RISE THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. CONVECTION
POTENTIAL WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST CWA WHERE THE
SEABREEZE WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORCING WITH. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
AND LOWER 90S BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...
THE LONG TERM UPPER AIR PATTERN FEATURES A TRANSITION FROM A LIFTING
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH TO THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A SOUTH ATLANTIC RIDGE
BEFORE A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DROPS DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
DURING THE WEEKEND. THE RESULT WILL BE WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO THE
LOWER 90S BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME
REGIME.
LOOKING AT DAILY DETAILS...THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BE LAYING
ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE
COAST MARGINALLY DURING THE DAY BEFORE WASHING OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WEAK TO PERHAPS MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE 12 UTC RUNS OF THE GFS/NAM SUGGEST A
RETARDED SOUTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THE FRONT AND WE HAVE EXPANDED
POPS WESTWARD SLIGHTLY WITH CHANCE POPS NOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SANDHILLS. FOR THE REST OF CENTRAL NC LOOK
FOR DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A MIX OF SUN AND A FAIRLY PROMINENT
LAYER OF CUMULUS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 88 TO
91.
THE SOUTH ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS AND SHIFTS WESTWARD FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. A WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE TROUGH...DEEP MIXED LAYERS AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. CHANCES OF CONVECTION ARE LIMITED
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND ANEMIC MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. BEST BETS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND NEAR THE SEA BREEZE. TEMPERATURES WARM DURING THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY RANGING BETWEEN 90 AND 94 WITH A
FORECAST HIGH OF 93 AT KRDU THE WARMEST SINCE SEPTEMBER 2. HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN THE COASTAL PLAIN SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 90S.
THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT WEST OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY WITH
H5 HEIGHTS REACHING 594DM OVER AL/MS BY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS ALLOWS A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO SLOWLY DROP
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC DURING THE PERIOD AND THREATEN OUR REGION WITH
A BACKDOOR LIKE APPROACH. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE INTRODUCTION OF
DIURNAL SCT THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NC FOR SATURDAY AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES WITH THE FRONTAL
POSITION BUT GIVEN THE PATTERN AND TIME OF YEAR...IT IS DOUBTFUL THE
FRONT WILL BE SUCCESSFUL IN ADVANCING TOO FAR SOUTH. HIGHS WILL
RANGE AROUND 90 ON SUNDAY AND IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ON
MONDAY OWING TO INCREASED CLOUDS AND UNCERTAINTY. -BLAES
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 155 AM TUESDAY...
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE PIEDMONT WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES EAST TOWARD THE COASTAL
PLAIN. THE CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM IS GREATEST AT KRDU IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH LESSER CHANCES AT KFAY AND KRWI...BUT A HEAVY
SHOWER WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND GUSTY WINDS IS STILL POSSIBLE.
MEANWHILE...AREAS STRATUS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS...MAINLY STAYING IN THE 1000-2000 FT RANGE BEFORE LIFTING
LATER THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF KRDU...THOUGH CONFIDENCE
IS BELOW AVERAGE GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF SHOWERS ALREADY EARLY THIS
MORNING AND A GENERAL TREND FURTHER EAST IN RECENT MODEL RUNS.
THUS...WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY THUNDER IN THE KFAY TAF AT THIS
TIME...BUT AREAS FROM KFAY TO KRWI WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY.
LOOKING AHEAD: ANY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION STARTING WEDNESDAY...LIMITING AVIATION CONCERNS
PRIMARILY TO EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG...THOUGH AN ISOLATED
STORMS IS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
155 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL STALL
OUT JUST NORTHWEST OF THE AREA TODAY... AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
HOLDS THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END OF THIS WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 915 PM MONDAY...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING AS CONVECTION MOVING
INTO THE PIEDMONT HAS HELD TOGETHER QUITE NICELY AMIDST SOME
LINGERING WEAK MUCAPE AND A 30-35KT LLJ AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH AXIS. RADAR SIGNATURES AND VARIOUS METARS SUGGEST 30-
40KT WINDS WITH THE STRONGER ECHOES. WILL UPDATE AGAIN WITH FULL
FORECAST PACKAGE.
HAVE MADE MINOR CHANGES AND REALIGNMENTS OF PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE
REST OF TONIGHT. LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH-RES CONVECTION-
ALLOWING MODEL OUTPUT INDICATE THE BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER THE FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT TRANSITION ZONE FIZZLING OUT IN TERMS OF
BOTH STRENGTH AND COVERAGE... REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE LOSS OF
HEATING RESULTING IN DWINDLING CAPE AND INCREASING CINH. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES HAVE ALSO DROPPED AS WELL EAST OF THE FOOTHILLS. WE
SHOULD MAINTAIN VERY MARGINAL VALUES OF SKINNY CAPE (MAINLY UNDER 50
J/KG) THROUGH THE NIGHT... ALONG WITH PASSAGE OF ABOVE NORMAL PW
VALUES AND WEAK DPVA IN THE BASE OF THE INCOMING MID LEVEL TROUGH...
SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS OVERNIGHT
PRIMARILY ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 1 CORRIDOR. THE NSSL WRF...
3 KM NAMRR... AND LATEST HRRR SHOW THIS INITIAL CONVECTION BREAKING
UP BUT BEING FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION (NOW OVER SE
TN) LATE TONIGHT. FOLLOWING THESE MODELS... WHICH ARE DOING A GOOD
JOB WITH EXISTING PATTERN... HAVE TAKEN THE INITIALLY HIGH POPS IN
THE TRIAD BACK DOWN INTO THE CHANCE RANGE... THEN EXPAND SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN CWA... FOCUSING
THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SW CWA. MILD DEWPOINTS SHOULD WARM A BIT
FURTHER OVERNIGHT... AND WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AREAWIDE BY DAWN... TEMPS SHOULD ONLY
FALL TO LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. -GIH
EARLIER DISCUSSION FROM 350 PM MONDAY... STRONG HEATING OF THE
MARGINALLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL INITIATE/SUSTAIN
ISOLATED CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE
PIEDMONT COUNTIES. SHOULD SEE THIS CONVECTION TEMPORARILY WANE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
A S/W IN THE NORTHERN STREAM CURRENTLY PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE
TN AND LOWER OH VALLEYS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-NE TONIGHT. THIS
SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
SUSTAIN A BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION IMMEDIATELY TO OUR NW THROUGH
SUNSET...AND POSSIBLY INTO OUR NW PIEDMONT AFTER 03Z. THIS
CONVECTION WILL BE AIDED BY A 30-35KT LOW LEVEL JET THOUGH LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO SOLID
CHANCE OVERNIGHT ACROSS A LARGE SWATH OF THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT.
FORECAST BULK SHEAR NEAR 30KTS ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT SUGGEST
LIKELIHOOD OF A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION CROSSING THE REGION AFTER
MIDNIGHT. STILL THINK THAT THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE
STRONGER CELLS IS REMOTE AS ATMOSPHERE UNDERGOING NOCTURNAL
STABILIZATION. MIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 65-70 DEGREE RANGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM MONDAY...
SHEAR AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IMMEDIATELY TO
OUR NORTH WILL DRIFT SEWD ACROSS MOST OF THE PIEDMONT IN THE
MORNING...AND INTO OUR COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILL COUNTIES IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WEAKENING WITH TIME AND BETTER UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT LIFTING WELL TO OUR NORTH. DID NOTE THAT LATEST CAM GUIDANCE
SUGGEST CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED AND MAINLY CONFINED SOUTH OF A
GSB-MEB LINE. WITH SHEAR AXIS LYING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
SANDHILLS DURING MAX HEATING AND PRECIP WATER 1.5-1.7 INCHES...STILL
EXPECT BEST CONCENTRATION OF SCATTERED CONVECTION TO OCCUR IN THIS
REGION. FOR NOW WILL TAPER POPS FROM HIGH CHANCE SE TO SLIGHT CHANCE
NW. MAX TEMPS MID-UPPER 80S.
CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING WITH BULK OF
CONVECTION DIMINISHING PRIOR TO 10 PM. HIGHLY PROBABLE THAT AREAS OF
LOWS CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPS
MID-UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...
THE LONG TERM UPPER AIR PATTERN FEATURES A TRANSITION FROM A LIFTING
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH TO THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A SOUTH ATLANTIC RIDGE
BEFORE A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DROPS DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
DURING THE WEEKEND. THE RESULT WILL BE WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO THE
LOWER 90S BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME
REGIME.
LOOKING AT DAILY DETAILS...THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BE LAYING
ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE
COAST MARGINALLY DURING THE DAY BEFORE WASHING OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WEAK TO PERHAPS MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE 12 UTC RUNS OF THE GFS/NAM SUGGEST A
RETARDED SOUTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THE FRONT AND WE HAVE EXPANDED
POPS WESTWARD SLIGHTLY WITH CHANCE POPS NOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SANDHILLS. FOR THE REST OF CENTRAL NC LOOK
FOR DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A MIX OF SUN AND A FAIRLY PROMINENT
LAYER OF CUMULUS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 88 TO
91.
THE SOUTH ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS AND SHIFTS WESTWARD FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. A WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE TROUGH...DEEP MIXED LAYERS AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. CHANCES OF CONVECTION ARE LIMITED
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND ANEMIC MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. BEST BETS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND NEAR THE SEA BREEZE. TEMPERATURES WARM DURING THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY RANGING BETWEEN 90 AND 94 WITH A
FORECAST HIGH OF 93 AT KRDU THE WARMEST SINCE SEPTEMBER 2. HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN THE COASTAL PLAIN SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 90S.
THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT WEST OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY WITH
H5 HEIGHTS REACHING 594DM OVER AL/MS BY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS ALLOWS A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO SLOWLY DROP
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC DURING THE PERIOD AND THREATEN OUR REGION WITH
A BACKDOOR LIKE APPROACH. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE INTRODUCTION OF
DIURNAL SCT THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NC FOR SATURDAY AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES WITH THE FRONTAL
POSITION BUT GIVEN THE PATTERN AND TIME OF YEAR...IT IS DOUBTFUL THE
FRONT WILL BE SUCCESSFUL IN ADVANCING TOO FAR SOUTH. HIGHS WILL
RANGE AROUND 90 ON SUNDAY AND IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ON
MONDAY OWING TO INCREASED CLOUDS AND UNCERTAINTY. -BLAES
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 155 AM TUESDAY...
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE PIEDMONT WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES EAST TOWARD THE COASTAL
PLAIN. THE CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM IS GREATEST AT KRDU IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH LESSER CHANCES AT KFAY AND KRWI...BUT A HEAVY
SHOWER WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND GUSTY WINDS IS STILL POSSIBLE.
MEANWHILE...AREAS STRATUS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS...MAINLY STAYING IN THE 1000-2000 FT RANGE BEFORE LIFTING
LATER THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF KRDU...THOUGH CONFIDENCE
IS BELOW AVERAGE GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF SHOWERS ALREADY EARLY THIS
MORNING AND A GENERAL TREND FURTHER EAST IN RECENT MODEL RUNS.
THUS...WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY THUNDER IN THE KFAY TAF AT THIS
TIME...BUT AREAS FROM KFAY TO KRWI WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY.
LOOKING AHEAD: ANY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION STARTING WEDNESDAY...LIMITING AVIATION CONCERNS
PRIMARILY TO EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG...THOUGH AN ISOLATED
STORMS IS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1235 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PUSHED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
DIMINISHED. EXPECT A SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH GUSTY NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 901 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...AND IS NOW MAKING ITS WAY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. FOR
MORNING UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED TIMING OF THE FRONT...AND HAVE
TRIMMED POPS BACK ON THE NORTHERN/WESTERN EDGES. UPDATES HAVE BEEN
SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
QUICK UPDATE TO EXPAND POPS FURTHER WEST ACROSS LAKE SAKAKAWEA AND
INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GIVEN RADAR TRENDS OF SCATTERED CONVECTION
THROUGH 11 UTC ASSOCIATED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH 250-500 J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE
ELEVATED CAPE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW
IN CENTRAL MANITOBA SOUTHWESTWARD TO ANOTHER LOW NEAR THE BORDER OF
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA/NORTH DAKOTA...THEN EXTENDING WESTWARD ALONG
THE MONTANA/CANADIAN BORDER. AT UPPER LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE ENERGY
IMPULSE WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION HAS BEEN ONGOING FROM MONDAY EVENING AT THE
MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER AND NOW THE CONVECTION WAS OVER
SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA AND MOVING INTO NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH THE INTERNATIONAL PEACE GARDENS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE CONVECTION.
THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP ITERATIONS INDICATE THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN
AREA AND FARTHER SOUTH IN PORTIONS OF THE JAMES VALLEY TODAY.
OTHERWISE THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE STATE AROUND DAYBREAK...THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST AND EXIT
THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD
BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOOKING AT
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS FROM AROUND 80 IN THE NORTH TO THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE OVER UTAH/COLORADO THIS MORNING MOVES NORTHEAST AND
APPROACHES NORTH DAKOTA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE
OVER EASTERN MONTANA/WYOMING LATER TONIGHT AS THE LEADING EDGE OF
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES REACHES WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE
KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR WEST LATE TONIGHT.
LOOKING AT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON WEAK CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST
MONTANA ON WEDNESDAY. RESULTANT SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE FOCUS AREAS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE STATE WITH MULTIPLE IMPULSES EMBEDDED
IN THE NORTHERN STREAM JET. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE INTO
THE NIGHT SOUTH AS A STRONGER WAVE ARRIVES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT FAVORED AT THIS TIME ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AS GREATER
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO RESIDE CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
THE QUASI-ZONAL PATTERN FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY IS FORECAST
TO SLOWLY AMPLIFY INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE ARRIVAL INTO THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
BEARING SEA. OVERALL...THE RESULT WOULD FAVOR NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH A NEAR DAILY CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
SCT -TSRA POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA LATE
TONIGHT...SPREADING INTO NORTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS
EVENING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
906 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 901 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...AND IS NOW MAKING ITS WAY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. FOR
MORNING UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED TIMING OF THE FRONT...AND HAVE
TRIMMED POPS BACK ON THE NORTHERN/WESTERN EDGES. UPDATES HAVE BEEN
SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
QUICK UPDATE TO EXPAND POPS FURTHER WEST ACROSS LAKE SAKAKAWEA AND
INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GIVEN RADAR TRENDS OF SCATTERED CONVECTION
THROUGH 11 UTC ASSOCIATED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH 250-500 J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE
ELEVATED CAPE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW
IN CENTRAL MANITOBA SOUTHWESTWARD TO ANOTHER LOW NEAR THE BORDER OF
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA/NORTH DAKOTA...THEN EXTENDING WESTWARD ALONG
THE MONTANA/CANADIAN BORDER. AT UPPER LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE ENERGY
IMPULSE WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION HAS BEEN ONGOING FROM MONDAY EVENING AT THE
MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER AND NOW THE CONVECTION WAS OVER
SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA AND MOVING INTO NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH THE INTERNATIONAL PEACE GARDENS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE CONVECTION.
THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP ITERATIONS INDICATE THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN
AREA AND FARTHER SOUTH IN PORTIONS OF THE JAMES VALLEY TODAY.
OTHERWISE THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE STATE AROUND DAYBREAK...THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST AND EXIT
THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD
BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOOKING AT
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS FROM AROUND 80 IN THE NORTH TO THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE OVER UTAH/COLORADO THIS MORNING MOVES NORTHEAST AND
APPROACHES NORTH DAKOTA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE
OVER EASTERN MONTANA/WYOMING LATER TONIGHT AS THE LEADING EDGE OF
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES REACHES WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE
KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR WEST LATE TONIGHT.
LOOKING AT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON WEAK CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST
MONTANA ON WEDNESDAY. RESULTANT SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE FOCUS AREAS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE STATE WITH MULTIPLE IMPULSES EMBEDDED
IN THE NORTHERN STREAM JET. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE INTO
THE NIGHT SOUTH AS A STRONGER WAVE ARRIVES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT FAVORED AT THIS TIME ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AS GREATER
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO RESIDE CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
THE QUASI-ZONAL PATTERN FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY IS FORECAST
TO SLOWLY AMPLIFY INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE ARRIVAL INTO THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
BEARING SEA. OVERALL...THE RESULT WOULD FAVOR NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH A NEAR DAILY CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE AT KMOT/KBIS/KJMS THIS
MORNING...WITH THE THREAT POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON
AT KJMS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH CLEAR SKIES
TO SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS. A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDED FROM
NORTHERN MANITOBA SOUTHWESTWARD NEAR KISN/KMOT AT 12Z IS FORECAST
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WITH
GUSTS OF 20-25KTS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JV/AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
616 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
QUICK UPDATE TO EXPAND POPS FURTHER WEST ACROSS LAKE SAKAKAWEA AND
INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GIVEN RADAR TRENDS OF SCATTERED CONVECTION
THROUGH 11 UTC ASSOCIATED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH 250-500 J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE
ELEVATED CAPE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW
IN CENTRAL MANITOBA SOUTHWESTWARD TO ANOTHER LOW NEAR THE BORDER OF
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA/NORTH DAKOTA...THEN EXTENDING WESTWARD ALONG
THE MONTANA/CANADIAN BORDER. AT UPPER LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE ENERGY
IMPULSE WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION HAS BEEN ONGOING FROM MONDAY EVENING AT THE
MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER AND NOW THE CONVECTION WAS OVER
SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA AND MOVING INTO NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH THE INTERNATIONAL PEACE GARDENS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE CONVECTION.
THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP ITERATIONS INDICATE THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN
AREA AND FARTHER SOUTH IN PORTIONS OF THE JAMES VALLEY TODAY.
OTHERWISE THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE STATE AROUND DAYBREAK...THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST AND EXIT
THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD
BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOOKING AT
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS FROM AROUND 80 IN THE NORTH TO THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE OVER UTAH/COLORADO THIS MORNING MOVES NORTHEAST AND
APPROACHES NORTH DAKOTA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE
OVER EASTERN MONTANA/WYOMING LATER TONIGHT AS THE LEADING EDGE OF
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES REACHES WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE
KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR WEST LATE TONIGHT.
LOOKING AT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON WEAK CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST
MONTANA ON WEDNESDAY. RESULTANT SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE FOCUS AREAS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE STATE WITH MULTIPLE IMPULSES EMBEDDED
IN THE NORTHERN STREAM JET. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE INTO
THE NIGHT SOUTH AS A STRONGER WAVE ARRIVES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT FAVORED AT THIS TIME ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AS GREATER
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO RESIDE CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
THE QUASI-ZONAL PATTERN FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY IS FORECAST
TO SLOWLY AMPLIFY INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE ARRIVAL INTO THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
BEARING SEA. OVERALL...THE RESULT WOULD FAVOR NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH A NEAR DAILY CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE AT KMOT/KBIS/KJMS THIS
MORNING...WITH THE THREAT POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON
AT KJMS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH CLEAR SKIES
TO SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS. A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDED FROM
NORTHERN MANITOBA SOUTHWESTWARD NEAR KISN/KMOT AT 12Z IS FORECAST
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WITH
GUSTS OF 20-25KTS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JV/AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
338 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW
IN CENTRAL MANITOBA SOUTHWESTWARD TO ANOTHER LOW NEAR THE BORDER OF
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA/NORTH DAKOTA...THEN EXTENDING WESTWARD ALONG
THE MONTANA/CANADIAN BORDER. AT UPPER LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE ENERGY
IMPULSE WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION HAS BEEN ONGOING FROM MONDAY EVENING AT THE
MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER AND NOW THE CONVECTION WAS OVER
SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA AND MOVING INTO NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH THE INTERNATIONAL PEACE GARDENS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE CONVECTION.
THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP ITERATIONS INDICATE THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN
AREA AND FARTHER SOUTH IN PORTIONS OF THE JAMES VALLEY TODAY.
OTHERWISE THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE STATE AROUND DAYBREAK...THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST AND EXIT
THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD
BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOOKING AT
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS FROM AROUND 80 IN THE NORTH TO THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE OVER UTAH/COLORADO THIS MORNING MOVES NORTHEAST AND
APPROACHES NORTH DAKOTA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE
OVER EASTERN MONTANA/WYOMING LATER TONIGHT AS THE LEADING EDGE OF
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES REACHES WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE
KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR WEST LATE TONIGHT.
LOOKING AT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON WEAK CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST
MONTANA ON WEDNESDAY. RESULTANT SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE FOCUS AREAS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE STATE WITH MULTIPLE IMPULSES EMBEDDED
IN THE NORTHERN STREAM JET. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE INTO
THE NIGHT SOUTH AS A STRONGER WAVE ARRIVES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT FAVORED AT THIS TIME ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AS GREATERINSTABILITY
IS FORECAST TO RESIDE CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA. HOWEVER...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
THE QUASI-ZONAL PATTERN FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY IS FORECAST
TO SLOWLY AMPLIFY INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE ARRIVAL INTO THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
BEARING SEA. OVERALL...THE RESULT WOULD FAVOR NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH A NEAR DAILY CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AERODROMES
LATER THIS MORNING...MAINLY AT KMOT...BUT THE CHANCES WERE TOO
SMALL TO PUT INTO THE TAF. WILL ADJUST IF NECESSARY. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH CLEAR SKIES TO SCATTERED MID LEVEL
CLOUDS. A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TO
CENTRAL MANITOBA AT 06Z IS FORECAST TO ENTER NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AROUND 09Z AND MOVE SOUTHEAST. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD
BECOME NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 14-19 KNOTS MAINLY DURING THE
LATER MORNING HOURS. BY 19Z THE FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH KJMS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1237 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
ONLY MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE. THE CONVECTION OVER THE BORDER OF
SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN AND SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA WAS HOLDING
TOGETHER AND MOVING SOUTHEAST. STILL LOOKING LIKE IT WILL CLIP THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE
HRRR INDICATE THE CONVECTION WOULD MISS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...WHILE
THE RAP BRINGS THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION AS FAR WEST AS THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS. AFTER DAYBREAK IT APPEARS ANY CONVECTION WOULD BE WELL
TO THE EAST OF THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS OR JAMES VALLEY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 942 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015
MAIN CHANGE FOR THIS UPDATE WAS TO AGAIN SLOW THE INTRODUCTION AND
PROGRESSION OF POPS TONIGHT. THE 09.00Z NAM SUGGESTS MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN
TOWARDS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. THE CURRENT ITERATIONS OF THE HRRR
AND RAP GENERALLY CONCUR WITH THE NAM...BUT STILL HAVE SMALL
CHANCES OF RAIN IN PARTS OF THE WEST. OUTSIDE OF THE ADJUSTMENT TO
POPS...OVERALL THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO CAPTURE CURRENT TRENDS. HAVE SLOWED
THE SOUTHERN PROGRESSION OF THE POPS EARLY THIS EVENING WITH MOST
NEAR TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGESTING THE PRECIP HOLDS OFF UNTIL
03Z OR AFTER. GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH
LOW OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOTED
STRETCHING THROUGH WESTERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO SOUTHEASTERN
ALBERTA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CONUS WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA. A VARIETY OF WEAK
SHORT WAVES CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE FLOW.
FOR TONIGHT...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES PUSHES INTO
THE AREA AS AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT WORKS INTO THE REGION.
THIS MAY LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING...MAINLY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER NORTHERN LOCATIONS.
ON TUESDAY...FRONT SETTLES THROUGH THE AREA WITH SOME LOCATIONS
PUSHING 90 DEGREES AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER FAR SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA. MAINLY 80S BEHIND IT. LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN IN THE MORNING OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...SETTLING
SOUTH TOWARDS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015
FREQUENT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND COMPLICATED FLOW ALOFT
HIGHLIGHTS THE LONG TERM.
THE CURRENT ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS PROVIDE GOOD AGREEMENT
ON NORTHWEST FLOW GIVING WAY TO SPLIT FLOW ALOFT THROUGH FRIDAY...AS
A CLOSED LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC PHASES WITH THE SOUTHERN
STREAM. HOWEVER...AS LOWS WITHIN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS
PROPAGATE EASTWARD AND PHASE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THE MODELS BECOME LESS HARMONIOUS. THOUGH THE MODELS HAVE
SHOWN CONSISTENT AGREEMENT ON OVERALL PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. THE
COMPLEXITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW HAS RESULTED IN HIGHER THAN
NORMAL MODEL UNCERTAINTY. AS OF NOW...SOUTHERN AREAS HAVE THE
BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AERODROMES
LATER THIS MORNING...MAINLY AT KMOT...BUT THE CHANCES WERE TOO
SMALL TO PUT INTO THE TAF. WILL ADJUST IF NECESSARY. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH CLEAR SKIES TO SCATTERED MID LEVEL
CLOUDS. A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TO
CENTRAL MANITOBA AT 06Z IS FORECAST TO ENTER NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AROUND 09Z AND MOVE SOUTHEAST. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD
BECOME NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 14-19 KNOTS MAINLY DURING THE
LATER MORNING HOURS. BY 19Z THE FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH KJMS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SOUTH WINDS. WINDS
WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 904 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015/
DISCUSSION...
TWENTY-FOUR HOUR TEMPERATURE CHANGES SHOW 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TODAY AS COMPARED TO THE CLEAR SKIES
YESTERDAY. HRRR AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A FASTER MORNING WARM-
UP, SO TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED. OTHERWISE, LITTLE CHANGES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 93 70 93 72 / 0 0 10 10
HOBART OK 94 70 95 72 / 10 10 20 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 95 71 95 73 / 10 0 10 0
GAGE OK 92 68 92 70 / 10 10 20 30
PONCA CITY OK 94 70 95 72 / 0 10 0 20
DURANT OK 93 70 93 73 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
09/84
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
904 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
.DISCUSSION...
TWENTY-FOUR HOUR TEMPERATURE CHANGES SHOW 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TODAY AS COMPARED TO THE CLEAR SKIES
YESTERDAY. HRRR AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A FASTER MORNING WARM-
UP, SO TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED. OTHERWISE, LITTLE CHANGES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 93 70 93 72 / 0 0 10 10
HOBART OK 94 70 95 72 / 10 10 20 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 95 71 95 73 / 10 0 10 0
GAGE OK 92 68 92 70 / 10 10 20 30
PONCA CITY OK 94 70 95 72 / 0 10 0 20
DURANT OK 93 70 93 73 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
09/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PORTLAND OR
552 AM PDT TUE JUN 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS SLOWLY WEAKENING AND SLIDING
EAST...WHICH WILL ALLOW A GRADUAL COOLING TREND TO DEVELOP FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. TODAY WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL RELIEF FROM
THE HEAT ALONG LOWER PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER. SOME MOISTURE
ALOFT IS WRAPPING NORTHWARD FROM CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON...
AND MAY CLIP THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES WITH A THUNDERSTORM. OTHERWISE
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING CLOSER TO LATE SPRING NORMALS AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES.
&&
.UPDATE...ISSUED A QUICK UPDATE TO GRIDS/ZONES TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF TSTMS REACHING LANE COUNTY AS CELLS NEAR ROSEBURG ARE
GETTING A LITTLE TOO CLOSE FOR COMFORT AND CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH.
ENVIRONMENT IS LESS FAVORABLE NORTH OF THE LANE/DOUGLAS LINE DUE TO
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER WEST-CENTRAL AND NW OREGON AND ASSOCIATED
WARMER TEMPS ALOFT...STILL SHOWN BY LATEST RAP RUNS. NONETHELESS
CONVECTION IS MORE WIDESPREAD TO OUR SOUTH THAN EXPECTED AND SEEM TO
HAVE SOME NORTHWARD MOMENTUM...SO ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER THIS
MORNING LANE COUNTY EAST OF THE COAST RANGE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
CYCLE DOWN LATER THIS MORNING...WITH CONVECTION BECOMING MORE SURFACE
BASED AND FAVORING THE CASCADES LATER TODAY.
ALSO DECREASED TEMPS A BIT ACROSS THE SE QUADRANT OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DUE TO ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER FROM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. WEAGLE
/PREV DISC ISSUED 321 AM PDT TUE JUN 9 2015/
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS FINALLY LOOSENING ITS GRIP ON SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON EARLY THIS MORNING...AS IT WEAKENS AND DRIFTS
EASTWARD INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW A LITTLE BIT OF COOLING TO
SPREAD INLAND THIS AFTERNOON...AS REDUCED SUBSIDENCE ALLOWS THE
MARINE LAYER TO EXPAND ITS INFLUENCE A BIT. SUSPECT THE BEST COOLING
WILL OCCUR ALONG THE LOWER COLUMBIA DOWNSTREAM OF PDX/TTD...WITH MAX
TEMPS LOWERING INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S TODAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE
WILLAMETTE AND TUALATIN VALLEYS WILL PROBABLY TOUCH 90 DEGREES AGAIN
TODAY AS THE MARINE LAYER STILL REMAINS RELATIVELY SHALLOW AND THE
AIR MASS REMAINS WARM WITH 850 MB TEMPS +18 TO +20 DEG C. ALL IN ALL
TODAY WILL PROBABLY FEEL LIKE ANOTHER HOT DAY FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA EAST OF THE COAST RANGE.
MEANWHILE...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND KMAX NWS DOPPLER RADAR SHOW A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS CREEPING INTO SW OREGON AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS
EARLY THIS MORNING...DUE TO AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE ALOFT WRAPPING
AROUND OUR DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON RETURN FLOW. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL CLIP LANE COUNTY
TODAY...DUE TO WEAK DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT AND THE INCREASING MOISTURE
ABOVE 700 MB. A COUPLE VERY SMALL CELLS HAVE TRIED TO POP UP NEAR
OAKRIDGE...BUT NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN DETECTED YET. IT APPEARS THE
BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE LANE/DOUGLAS COUNTY
LINE...AS THIS IS WHERE THE BEST DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND ACCESS TO HIGH
THETA-E AIR ARE. THAT SAID WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE ACTIVITY
CROSSING THE OR/CA BORDER OVER THE COMING HOURS. REMAINED
CONSERVATIVE WITH FCST POPS/WX...BUT IF THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP
THEY COULD COME WITH PROLIFIC LIGHTNING AND GUSTY DOWNDRAFT WINDS
DUE TO THE DRY AIR MASS BELOW 700 MB.
CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE CASCADES TONIGHT AS FLOW
ALOFT TURNS MORE WESTERLY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA. THIS SHOULD ALSO OPEN THE DOOR
FOR DEEPENING ONSHORE FLOW...WITH MORE PROLIFIC COOLING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WED/THU. THIS WILL BE RELATIVE COOLING...ABOUT 10-15
DEGREES INLAND VERSUS YESTERDAY...WHICH IS STILL ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS WITH THE DEEPER ONSHORE FLOW...MET/MAV MOS
GUIDANCE SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON THAT. THE COOLER LOW-LEVEL TEMPS
SHOULD FURTHER SERVE TO STABILIZE THE AIR MASS AND LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL WED/THU.
WILL PROBABLY BE A BURST OF GUSTY ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE COASTAL
GAPS AND COLUMBIA GORGE TONIGHT/WED AS COOLER AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO
THE DISTRICT. LOW CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP IN FULL FORCE ALONG
THE COAST...POSSIBLY SPREADING UP THE COLUMBIA TO THE PDX METRO WED
AND THU MORNINGS. INLAND AREAS SHOULD CLEAR QUICKLY WITH PLENTY OF
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND MORE TYPICAL LATE SPRING/EARLY SUMMER
TEMPERATURES. WEAGLE
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE ON A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH RELATIVELY HIGH HEIGHTS
CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON FRI SHOULD AID
ANOTHER NW MARINE PUSH..BUT WITH HEIGHTS ALOFT STILL RELATIVELY
HIGH...THIS IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER AND
JUST GETTING TEMPS BACK DOWN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEKEND MODELS DIFFER ON STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF OF A
LOW OVER THE NW...BUT THE NET EFFECT REMAINS A DRY PATTERN CONTINUING
WITH ONSHORE FLOW TO KEEP TEMPS NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INLAND FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 21-06Z. MARINE STRATUS
ALONG THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN
11-18Z...AND AGAIN AFTER 05Z.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 21-06Z. /64
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRES REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE NE PAC THROUGH THE
WEEK WITH THERMAL LOW PRES OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND STEEP SEAS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WIND DRIVEN WITH A DOMINATE PERIOD AROUND
8 SECONDS TILL LATER THIS WEEK WHEN A LONGER PERIOD SWELL IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE. /64
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 PM
PDT WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PENDLETON OR
300 AM PDT TUE JUN 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOW
CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN OREGON AND SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO EARLY THIS
MORNING. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ON
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THIS DEPARTING RIDGE AND OUT AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS LOCATED OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST.
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE MAINLY CONFINED TO FAR
SOUTHWESTERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING. A
LOOK AT THE MESOANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF ELEVATED CAPE IN THIS
AREA..WITH ANOTHER PRONOUNCED REGION OF ELEVATED CAPE NEAR 250 J/KG
OVER MUCH OF OUR OREGON FORECAST ZONES. THE LATEST HRRR KEEPS MUCH
OF OUR CWA DRY THROUGH 18Z BEFORE DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM DESCHUTES COUNTY NORTHEAST THROUGH
CROOK...GRANT...SOUTHERN UNION AND WALLOWA COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.
THE LATEST 06Z NAM ON THE OTHER HAND TRIES TO DEVELOP ACTIVITY PRIOR
TO 18Z OVER MUCH OF OUR OREGON ZONES...THIS SEEMS OVERDONE SO LEANED
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DRIER UNTIL AFTER 18Z. AS MENTIONED ABOVE LOOK
FOR MAIN CONVECTIVE INITIATION BETWEEN 18-21Z TODAY OVER THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF OUR CWA...STORM MOVEMENT SHOULD BE NORTHEAST
RATHER SLOWLY NEAR 10-20 MPH. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS MUCAPE VALUES HOVER BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG IN
THE OREGON MOUNTAINS AND 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES APPROACH 25KTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH DROPPING BACK
ABOUT 2 TO 5 DEGREES LOWER COMPARED TO MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
STILL PUT THE VALLEYS/BASINS BETWEEN 95-101 FOR MAX TEMPERATURES
WITH THE MOUNTAINS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE
THE BREEZY CONDITIONS AND LOW MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS LATER
TODAY...THIS COULD LEAD TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AND THUS HAVE
SEVERAL RED FLAG WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE REGION. BY LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MUCH DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR BEGINS TO WORK
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THEREFORE ANY SHOWERS/T`STORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO EXTREME
EASTERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
LIKELY DRYING OUT AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THIS DRY/BREEZY WEATHER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS A TRANSIENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD. THE MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE
FIRE WEATHER RELATED ONCE AGAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY WARM
BUT ON A GRADUAL COOLING TREND FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...WITH THE VALLEYS AND BASINS STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
EACH DAY. 77
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A DRY AND STABLE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL BECOME MORE
WESTERLY ZONAL ON FRIDAY AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO FORM OVER
THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO BRING IN COOLER AIR TO THE CWA. THE
FORMING UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
AND STABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUING BECAUSE THE TROUGH WILL BE SO WIDE
AND BROAD. IT WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOONS
AND EVENINGS. THE WIND MAY COMBINE WITH LOW HUMIDITIES TO CREATE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS. ON SUNDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
WEAKEN AND THE FLOW WILL BECOME FLAT WESTERLY. THIS WILL ALLOW MORE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...HOWEVER THERE MAY
STILL BE ENOUGH FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF FAR NORTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEAST
WASHINGTON. HOWEVER AM NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON TUESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK AS IT WILL BE THE MOST UNSTABLE DAY IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A COOLING TREND ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AND THEN THE TEMPERATURES WILL LEVEL OUT AND REMAIN
PERSISTENT THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...THEY
WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DESPITE THE COOLING TREND. 88
&&
.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THERE MAY BE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WHICH WILL EFFECT TAF SITES KRDM AND KBDN. ELSEWHERE THE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE TOO FAR SOUTH AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BUT THEN WILL
INCREASE BY EARLY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY AT KDLS IN THE EASTERN
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE. THEN THEY WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. 88
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 96 60 92 57 / 10 0 0 0
ALW 97 64 93 61 / 10 0 0 0
PSC 101 61 97 56 / 0 0 0 0
YKM 99 60 94 59 / 0 0 0 0
HRI 100 59 96 56 / 0 0 0 0
ELN 96 58 91 58 / 0 0 0 0
RDM 94 51 88 42 / 20 10 0 0
LGD 92 55 87 49 / 20 10 0 0
GCD 94 55 89 47 / 30 30 10 0
DLS 97 60 90 58 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WA...&&
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
77/88/88
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1159 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT
AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE
THURSDAY. THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD NORTH ONCE AGAIN FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WHEN SUMMERTIME HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WILL BE THE RULE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION HAS FINALLY SPARKED OFF AND NOW
EXTENDS FROM EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO ALL THE WAY BACK TO SOUTHERN
IOWA.
HARD TO HAVE A LOT OF FAITH IN THE SHORT RANGE HIGH RES GUIDANCE
FOR THE PROGRESS OF THE CONVECTION. THE HRRR SOLUTION DOESN`T SEEM
TO MAKE SENSE AS IT BACKS PART OF THE LINE BACK TO THE NORTH
BEFORE DROPPING IT SOUTH ONCE AGAIN OVER NWRN PA. AT THIS POINT
THE WRF-NMM SEEMS TO HAVE THE MOST LOGICAL SOLUTION KEEPING A
COHERENT LINE OF CONVECTION IN TACT THROUGH 03-06Z BEFORE
WEAKENING IT RAPIDLY. THIS MATCHES WELL TO THE SREF POPS THAT
SUGGESTED ACTIVITY DIES BEFORE IT GETS INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
FOR THE TIME BEING THE STORMS HAVE SOME LATE EVENING CAPE AND
RESPECTABLE WIND SHEAR TO WORK WITH...BUT THE RAP ALSO INDICATES
THAT THE CIN IS ON THE INCREASE AS ONE WOULD EXPECT GIVEN THE
HOUR.
IT WILL REMAIN MILD OVERNIGHT AND I DROPPED THE CHANCES FOR RAIN
DOWN TO NEAR ZERO AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT/BOUNDARY SETS UP SOMEWHERE OVERHEAD AS THE BIG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HOLDS IT UP. A RESURGENCE IN SHRA/TSRA IS
EXPECTED THURS AFTN...BUT MUCH LESS CAPE AND ALMOST NO TRIGGERING
FEATURE WILL MEAN THEY WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED AND NOT STRONG. THE
BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES. MAXES ON
THURSDAY WILL TAKE A RUN AT 90F IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE SE
WITH 80S ELSEWHERE. A LITTLE MORE HEAT WILL BE ADDED ON FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE FRI-TUE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED
BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDING WWD FROM THE WRN ATLC OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS WILL FAVOR
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
FOCUSED WITHIN PLUME OF ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE/PWATS POOLING AROUND
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY
WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 90F EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. STRONG
HEATING OF A MOIST BLYR/60+ SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD SUPPORT SOME
WEAKLY FORCED DIURNAL CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH
POSSIBLE TRIGGER FOCUS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OR LEE SFC
TROUGH. A WEAKENING MID LVL TROUGH IS FCST TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST INTO SATURDAY AND SHOULD PUSH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALONG THE LOWER LAKES SWD INTO CENTRAL PA. SCT TSTMS
SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVG BOUNDARY WITH A MODEL
CONSENSUS FAVORING THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE
BUILDING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HOLD THE
WAVY/INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE FRONT INVOF THE MASON DIXON LINE. THERE
IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH DRY AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT
AS THE GEFS FCSTS A NOTABLE DROP IN PWATS SAT NGT-SUN BEFORE
ANOMALOUS MSTR/PWATS SURGE BACK INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN MCS TYPE COMPLEX MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA NEXT WEEK BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE DETAILS ESPECIALLY AT
THIS RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FRONT HAS FINALLY CROSSED LAKE ERIE AND IS MAKING ITS WAY
THROUGH NORTHWESTERN PA. CURRENT TRACK HAS THE SHRA/TSRA LINE
REACHING BFD AROUND 0430Z TO 05Z. THE CURRENT RAP HAS THE
SOUNDINGS RAPIDLY STABLIZING AND THE LATEST HRRR IS FINALLY
CATCHING ON TO THIS. SO EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE BETWEEN 04Z TO
06Z...MAINLY AT BFD. EXPECTING MAINLY SHOWERS AND HAVE LEFT OUT
THUNDER DUE TO WEAKENING CELLS.
ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT..LLWS SHOULD AFFECT MOST TAF SITES WITH
5-10KT SFC WINDS BEING TOPPED BY WSW TO SW WINDS OF 30-35 KTS
BEGINNING APPROX 1200-1500 FT AGL. ANY LLWS SHOULD CEASE BETWEEN
11Z TO 13Z.
OUTLOOK...
THU-SAT...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS /WITH
ASSOCIATED LOCAL RESTRICTIONS/.
SUN...IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1023 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT
AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE
THURSDAY. THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD NORTH ONCE AGAIN FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WHEN SUMMERTIME HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WILL BE THE RULE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION HAS FINALLY SPARKED OFF AND NOW
EXTENDS FROM EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO ALL THE WAY BACK TO SOUTHERN
IOWA.
HARD TO HAVE A LOT OF FAITH IN THE SHORT RANGE HIGH RES GUIDANCE
FOR THE PROGRESS OF THE CONVECTION. THE HRRR SOLUTION DOESN`T SEEM
TO MAKE SENSE AS IT BACKS PART OF THE LINE BACK TO THE NORTH
BEFORE DROPPING IT SOUTH ONCE AGAIN OVER NWRN PA. AT THIS POINT
THE WRF-NMM SEEMS TO HAVE THE MOST LOGICAL SOLUTION KEEPING A
COHERENT LINE OF CONVECTION IN TACT THROUGH 03-06Z BEFORE
WEAKENING IT RAPIDLY. THIS MATCHES WELL TO THE SREF POPS THAT
SUGGESTED ACTIVITY DIES BEFORE IT GETS INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
FOR THE TIME BEING THE STORMS HAVE SOME LATE EVENING CAPE AND
RESPECTABLE WIND SHEAR TO WORK WITH...BUT THE RAP ALSO INDICATES
THAT THE CIN IS ON THE INCREASE AS ONE WOULD EXPECT GIVEN THE
HOUR.
IT WILL REMAIN MILD OVERNIGHT AND I DROPPED THE CHANCES FOR RAIN
DOWN TO NEAR ZERO AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT/BOUNDARY SETS UP SOMEWHERE OVERHEAD AS THE BIG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HOLDS IT UP. A RESURGENCE IN SHRA/TSRA IS
EXPECTED THURS AFTN...BUT MUCH LESS CAPE AND ALMOST NO TRIGGERING
FEATURE WILL MEAN THEY WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED AND NOT STRONG. THE
BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES. MAXES ON
THURSDAY WILL TAKE A RUN AT 90F IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE SE
WITH 80S ELSEWHERE. A LITTLE MORE HEAT WILL BE ADDED ON FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE FRI-TUE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED
BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDING WWD FROM THE WRN ATLC OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS WILL FAVOR
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
FOCUSED WITHIN PLUME OF ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE/PWATS POOLING AROUND
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY
WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 90F EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. STRONG
HEATING OF A MOIST BLYR/60+ SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD SUPPORT SOME
WEAKLY FORCED DIURNAL CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH
POSSIBLE TRIGGER FOCUS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OR LEE SFC
TROUGH. A WEAKENING MID LVL TROUGH IS FCST TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST INTO SATURDAY AND SHOULD PUSH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALONG THE LOWER LAKES SWD INTO CENTRAL PA. SCT TSTMS
SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVG BOUNDARY WITH A MODEL
CONSENSUS FAVORING THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE
BUILDING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HOLD THE
WAVY/INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE FRONT INVOF THE MASON DIXON LINE. THERE
IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH DRY AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT
AS THE GEFS FCSTS A NOTABLE DROP IN PWATS SAT NGT-SUN BEFORE
ANOMALOUS MSTR/PWATS SURGE BACK INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN MCS TYPE COMPLEX MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA NEXT WEEK BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE DETAILS ESPECIALLY AT
THIS RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY TO THE NW AS A FEW AREAS OF SHRA/TSRA ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 03Z TO 06Z AS A FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE NORTHWEST. ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT..LLWS SHOULD
AFFECT MOST TAF SITES WITH 5-10KT SFC WINDS BEING TOPPED BY WSW TO
SW WINDS OF 30-35 KTS BEGINNING APPROX 1200-1500 FT AGL. ANY LLWS
SHOULD CEASE BETWEEN 11Z TO 13Z.
OUTLOOK...
THU-SAT...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS /WITH
ASSOCIATED LOCAL RESTRICTIONS/.
SUN...IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
205 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT...BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
OF THE REGION TUESDAY. AFTER SOME DRY WEATHER FOR MIDWEEK...ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
1 AM UPDATE...
APPEARS THAT A VORT MAX IS OVERHEAD AND MOVING NE. HOWEVER...MORE
FORCING IS OFF TO THE WEST AND CONVECTION EXTENDS INTO SERN
INDIANA. NMRS SHRA/TSRA ARE SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA AT 1 AM.
THE THREAT REMAINS HEAVY RAIN - MAINLY FROM TRAINING ECHOES. THE
RESPONSE ON THE LARGER WATERWAYS IS SO FAR ALMOST NIL. NEWEST HRR
AND RAP HAVE A GOOD CLUE ON WHERE THE CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY AND
SHOULD THEREFORE HAVE A GOOD IDEA OF WHERE IT WILL BE GOING. THEY
EVEN CAUGHT THE STUFF WHICH RECENTLY DEVELOPD OVER THE NWRN MTNS.
DEWPOINTS PRETTY HIGH AND TEMPS SHOULD NOT MOVE MUCH OVERNIGHT.
PREV...
BOUNDARY LAYER JET MAINTAINING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS W/ISOLATED
THUNDER AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PA
AT THIS HOUR. WILL WATCH FOR TRAINING...BUT ALL OF THIS IS COMING
IN THE FORM OF BENEFICIAL RAINFALL AS MOST OF THE AREA IS STILL
RUNNING DEFICITS FROM THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS. IN ADDITION TO
ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AFFORDED BY THE 850 MB JET...UPPER SUPPORT
PROVIDED BY STRONG RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 90-100+ KT 250 MB JET
WILL MAINTAIN FAVORABLE FORCING OVERNGIHT FOR LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. 5H
TROF AXIS SWINGS INTO CENTRAL PA BY 12Z TUE...WITH ACTIVITY
DECREASING BEHIND IT. AS A RESULT...CATEGORICAL POPS CARRIED FOR
MOST OVERNIGHT WILL TAPER SOMEWHAT TOWARDS 12Z TUE AS DRIER AIR
WORKS IN FROM THE WEST AT THAT TIME. MINS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 60S NORTH THROUGH THE UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH ON TUESDAY...KEEPING THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE/PWATS ARE FORECAST TO HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE REGION BY
EARLY IN THE DAY SO THE POTENT TROUGH WILL BE WORKING ON AN
INCREASINGLY DRY AIRMASS. HIGHS IN THE LOWERS 70S TO LOWER 80S
FROM NW TO SE WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL FOR
EARLY JUNE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTER THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES BY LATER TUESDAY...NAEFSBC SHOWS
UPPER HEIGHTS REBOUNDING OVER THE EASTERN US SUGGESTING A
RESURGENCE OF WARMTH AND EARLY SUMMER HUMIDITY. A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES ARE SHOWN IN THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SHEARING OUT AS
THEY SKIRT THE AREA TO THE NORTH...RE-INTRODUCING THE LOW CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS FROM ABOUT THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MANY CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALL THE WAY BACK INTO
WESTERN OH AND EASTERN MI. EXPECT A WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS INTO
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AS THE COLD FRONT IS
STILL TO THE WEST...AND A RATHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
AID MORE STORM FORMATION...AS THE STRONG JUNE SUN WORKS ON
MODERATE DEWPOINTS. POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY
RAIN...AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL WITH SOME OF THE STORMS.
ONCE THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL LATER THIS AFT. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE WINDY UNTIL LATE
AFT.
SOME VARIATION IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
ONE CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY STRONG STORMS NEAR BFD
ON WED...ESPECIALLY IF THE NAM IS RIGHT. INTENSE WARM ADVECTION
AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL AID IN STORM FORMATION.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGERS RIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND...GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF A FRONT NEARBY...AND FAST
FLOW...RESULTING IN SYSTEMS LIFTING EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT.
OUTLOOK...
WED...CHC OF STORMS NEAR BFD. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EXPECTED.
THU-SAT...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR/RXR
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE/RXR
LONG TERM...WATSON/LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
119 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT...BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION
TUESDAY. AFTER SOME DRY WEATHER FOR MIDWEEK...ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
1 AM UPDATE...
APPEARS THAT A VORT MAX IS OVERHEAD AND MOVING NE. HOWEVER...MORE
FORCING IS OFF TO THE WEST AND CONVECTION EXTENDS INTO SERN
INDIANA. NMRS SHRA/TSRA ARE SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA AT 1 AM.
THE THREAT REMAINS HEAVY RAIN - MAINLY FROM TRAINING ECHOES. THE
RESPONSE ON THE LARGER WATERWAYS IS SO FAR ALMOST NIL. NEWEST HRR
AND RAP HAVE A GOOD CLUE ON WHERE THE CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY AND
SHOULD THEREFORE HAVE A GOOD IDEA OF WHERE IT WILL BE GOING. THEY
EVEN CAUGHT THE STUFF WHICH RECENTLY DEVELOPD OVER THE NWRN MTNS.
DEWPOINTS PRETTY HIGH AND TEMPS SHOULD NOT MOVE MUCH OVERNIGHT.
PREV...
BOUNDARY LAYER JET MAINTAINING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS W/ISOLATED
THUNDER AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PA
AT THIS HOUR. WILL WATCH FOR TRAINING...BUT ALL OF THIS IS COMING
IN THE FORM OF BENEFICIAL RAINFALL AS MOST OF THE AREA IS STILL
RUNNING DEFICITS FROM THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS. IN ADDITION TO
ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AFFORDED BY THE 850 MB JET...UPPER SUPPORT
PROVIDED BY STRONG RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 90-100+ KT 250 MB JET
WILL MAINTAIN FAVORABLE FORCING OVERNGIHT FOR LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. 5H
TROF AXIS SWINGS INTO CENTRAL PA BY 12Z TUE...WITH ACTIVITY
DECREASING BEHIND IT. AS A RESULT...CATEGORICAL POPS CARRIED FOR
MOST OVERNIGHT WILL TAPER SOMEWHAT TOWARDS 12Z TUE AS DRIER AIR
WORKS IN FROM THE WEST AT THAT TIME. MINS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 60S NORTH THROUGH THE UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH ON TUESDAY...KEEPING THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE/PWATS ARE FORECAST TO HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE REGION BY
EARLY IN THE DAY SO THE POTENT TROUGH WILL BE WORKING ON AN
INCREASINGLY DRY AIRMASS. HIGHS IN THE LOWERS 70S TO LOWER 80S
FROM NW TO SE WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL FOR
EARLY JUNE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTER THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES BY LATER TUESDAY...NAEFSBC SHOWS
UPPER HEIGHTS REBOUNDING OVER THE EASTERN US SUGGESTING A
RESURGENCE OF WARMTH AND EARLY SUMMER HUMIDITY. A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES ARE SHOWN IN THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SHEARING OUT AS
THEY SKIRT THE AREA TO THE NORTH...RE-INTRODUCING THE LOW CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS FROM ABOUT THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA WILL PRODUCE LINGERING
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE
LIKELIHOOD OF IFR CIGS AT KBFD AND KJST...CAUSED BY MOIST SWRLY
FLOW ASCENDING THE MTNS. RAPID IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED BTWN 12Z-14Z...AS
LOW LVL MOISTURE MIXES OUT AND CONDS RETURN TO WIDESPREAD VFR.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...MVFR WITH MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
VFR LATER PART OF THE DAY.
WED...NO SIG WX.
THU-SAT...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR/RXR
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE/RXR
LONG TERM...WATSON/LA CORTE
AVIATION...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
413 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING IS STILL IN QUESTION. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO LOOK OVERDONE
WITH JUST A QUESTION ON WHETHER IT IS OVERDONE OR WAY OVERDONE. ALSO
SOME OF THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT GOING WESTERLY
RAISES CONVERGENCE QUESTIONS. FOR THE MOMENT WILL PLAN ON KEEPING
COVERAGE LOW BUT NOT TAKING OUT. ALSO...FOR NOW AM KEEPING A SLIGHT
MENTION EAST CENTRAL TO AN HOUR OR TWO PAST SUNSET...BUT GIVEN THE
FRONTAL MOVEMENT SEEMING A TAD STRONGER AND FASTER THAN BEFORE
DURING THIS TIME...WONDER IF THERE WILL BE ANYTHING LEFT ASSUMING
THERE IS SOMETHING TO START WITH.
LATE TONIGHT WILL BRING PRETTY CLEAR SKIES AND COOLING TEMPERATURES
WITH 60 TO 65 LOWS. FOR WEDNESDAY STILL PLAN ON A FAIRLY SUNNY START
WITH A CLOUD INCREASE STARTING SLOWLY...AND NOT REALLY PICKING UP
STEAM UNTIL MID AFTERNOON OUT WEST...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS STARTING LATE AFTERNOON OUT THERE AS THE EXPECTED WET
SYSTEM APPROACHES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STAY GENERALLY IN THE 80
TO 85 RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
REMAINS AT THE FOREFRONT OF CONCERN IN THE MEDIUM RANGE. AIRMASS
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SATURATED WITH INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM
DISSIPATED PACIFIC TROPICAL SYSTEM...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
LIKELY IN THE 1.5 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE ON THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL JET
WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF SYSTEM PUSHING OUT OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES...ESPECIALLY BY LATER NIGHT. WHILE MUCH OF THE
EVENING SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET..WILL START TO GET A BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY TOWARD 06Z...
AND BECOMING WIDESPREAD SOUTH OF I-90 LATE NIGHT. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY SETTLES IN A 400-800 J/KG WHICH COULD SUGGEST A
MARGINAL LARGE HAIL THREAT INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY LATE NIGHT OR
EARLY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE
THURSDAY PERIOD APPEARS SECONDARY TO RAINFALL THREAT...WITH BEST
CHANCE FOR SEVERE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERN CWA WHERE
SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH NORTHWARD BY LATER
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF SURFACE WAVE. TRACK OF LEVEL WAVE AND LOCATION
OF THE LOWER TO MID LEVEL GRADIENTS/LOW LEVEL JET CONVERGENCE
CERTAINLY POINTS TOWARD A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. HPC IN THE LAST 15 MINUTES HAS UPDATED TO
PLACE MUCH OF THE EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN CWA IN SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM 12Z THU TO 12Z FRI...AND EVEN A MODERATE
RISK IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST AROUND SPENCER/STORM LAKE/IDA GROVE.
WITH AS MUCH IMPACT AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONVECTION COULD HAVE ON
EVENTUAL SET UP OF PREFERRED PRECIPITATION LOCATION ON THURSDAY...
HAVE COORDINATED WITH NEIGHBORS AND DECIDED NOT TO YET ISSUE A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH. AT THIS TIME...A FAIRLY STRONG DIVERSITY IN
SOLUTIONS OF WHERE GREATEST PRECIPITATION AXIS WILL OCCUR...
WITH NUMEROUS AREA HAVING SOME DEGREE OF HEAVIER RAINFALL
LATELY...AND CONSISTENCY OF A REGIONAL HEAVY RAIN SIGNATURE...
WOULD BELIEVE A WATCH WOULD BE ALMOST CERTAIN WITH THE NEXT MAIN
FORECAST PACKAGE.
THERE SHOULD BE A TIME WHERE THINGS DRY OUT ACROSS THE AREA FROM
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS MEAN RIDGING TAKES A WEAK GRIP ON THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. GFS/ECMWF ARE A BIT QUICKER IN EXITING SYSTEM ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW SYSTEM EXITS
REQUIRED MAINTAINING A MEAGER CHANCE EARLY FRIDAY IN THE EAST.
FLOW TRENDS AGAIN TOWARD SOUTHWEST ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
AND ANOTHER BROAD WAVE CREEPING NORTHEASTWARD SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. SHEAR NOR INSTABILITY APPEAR TO BE OF
GREAT CONCERN...SO AT THIS POINT NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE THREAT. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK TOWARD SEASONABLY WARM
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND PERHAPS FLATTENING OF RIDGE BY
SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND PRESENCE OF A WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE BOTH PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THREAT OF
SEVERE STORMS AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
GENERALLY VFR THROUGH 10/18Z. ISOLATED TSRA EXPECTED ALONG COLD
FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA 21Z-02Z MAY PRODUCE VERY
BRIEF AND LOCAL LOWERING OF VISIBILITIES TO 3-5SM BUT HAVE NOT
INCLUDED IN TAF FORECASTS BECAUSE OF THE VERY LOW PROBABILITY.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
1113 AM MDT TUE JUN 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 326 AM MDT TUE JUN 9 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE WRN CONUS WITH
BROAD NW FLOW ACROSS WRN CNDA/NRN PLAINS. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW...THE STRONGEST CROSSING THE SASKATCHEWAN
PROVINCE. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF THE WAVE IS CROSSING
MANITOBA WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING NRN MT AND APPROACHING NW ND.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS ND TODAY AND INTO NW SD LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES...WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE
ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING. MODELS TREND OF WARMER
TEMPERATURES TODAY CONTINUES WITH LATEST GUIDANCE...NOW SUGGESTING
CNTRL SD REACHING WELL INTO THE UPPER 90S. THE HRRR EVEN SHOWS
SCNTRL SD HITTING 100. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S. ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE BLKHLS THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE THE CAP MAY BREAK. OTHERWISE A QUIET AND SUNNY DAY
FOR MOST OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED.
THE FRONT WILL CROSS MUCH OF THE WRN SD PLAINS TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WRN TO CNTRL SD WITH RETURN
FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS NE WY/FAR WRN SD. WITH HIGHER THETA E ACROSS
THE AREAS...THIS WILL BE BEST SHOT FOR SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AS SEVERAL WEAK WAVES APPROACH FROM THE SW. THE GFS IS HAS
THE MOST ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF IS
COMPLETELY DRY. THE NAM IS SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE. WILL CONTINUE
WITH SL CHC/LOW END CHC POPS ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA TONIGHT.
THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL BREAK DOWN AS IT PUSHES
INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. CLOSED 700/850MB LOW WILL APPROACH THE
HIGH PLAINS WITH STRONG MOISTURE INFLUX AND UPPER AIR FORCING.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE CWA WED...AND INCREASING
COVERAGE/QPF WED NIGHT. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG OR EVEN
SEVERE ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW SD.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 326 AM MDT TUE JUN 9 2015
UPPER TROF MOVES THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS MID WEEK...WITH 700MB LOW
CLOSING OFF NEAR THE NEB/SD BORDER. THIS WILL RESULT IN WDSPRD
TSRA LATE WED INTO THU. SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED
LATE THU INTO FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE NRN PLAINS.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS SW FLOW ALOFT INCREASES WITH NEXT APPROACHING TROF. WARM
CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY COOLER CONDITIONS
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. SLOW WARMING TREND THEN EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM MDT TUE JUN 9 2015
ISOLATED TSTM OVER THE BLKHLS THIS AFTN COULD BRING LOCAL MVFR
CONDITIONS. A BETTER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTMS WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT
INTO WED MRNG MAINLY FROM NERN WY INTO NWRN SD. WHILE MOST CIGS
WITH THIS PCPN WILL BE VFR...SOME LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR VSBYS
EXPECTED. OUTSIDE OF ANY PCPN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
WED MRNG.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...JOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
327 AM MDT TUE JUN 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 326 AM MDT TUE JUN 9 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE WRN CONUS WITH
BROAD NW FLOW ACROSS WRN CNDA/NRN PLAINS. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW...THE STRONGEST CROSSING THE SASKATCHEWAN
PROVINCE. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF THE WAVE IS CROSSING
MANITOBA WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING NRN MT AND APPROACHING NW ND.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS ND TODAY AND INTO NW SD LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES...WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE
ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING. MODELS TREND OF WARMER
TEMPERATURES TODAY CONTINUES WITH LATEST GUIDANCE...NOW SUGGESTING
CNTRL SD REACHING WELL INTO THE UPPER 90S. THE HRRR EVEN SHOWS
SCNTRL SD HITTING 100. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S. ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE BLKHLS THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE THE CAP MAY BREAK. OTHERWISE A QUIET AND SUNNY DAY
FOR MOST OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED.
THE FRONT WILL CROSS MUCH OF THE WRN SD PLAINS TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WRN TO CNTRL SD WITH RETURN
FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS NE WY/FAR WRN SD. WITH HIGHER THETA E ACROSS
THE AREAS...THIS WILL BE BEST SHOT FOR SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AS SEVERAL WEAK WAVES APPROACH FROM THE SW. THE GFS IS HAS
THE MOST ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF IS
COMPLETELY DRY. THE NAM IS SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE. WILL CONTINUE
WITH SL CHC/LOW END CHC POPS ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA TONIGHT.
THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL BREAK DOWN AS IT PUSHES
INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. CLOSED 700/850MB LOW WILL APPROACH THE
HIGH PLAINS WITH STRONG MOISTURE INFLUX AND UPPER AIR FORCING.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE CWA WED...AND INCREASING
COVERAGE/QPF WED NIGHT. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG OR EVEN
SEVERE ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW SD.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 326 AM MDT TUE JUN 9 2015
UPPER TROF MOVES THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS MID WEEK...WITH 700MB LOW
CLOSING OFF NEAR THE NEB/SD BORDER. THIS WILL RESULT IN WDSPRD
TSRA LATE WED INTO THU. SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED
LATE THU INTO FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE NRN PLAINS.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS SW FLOW ALOFT INCREASES WITH NEXT APPROACHING TROF. WARM
CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY COOLER CONDITIONS
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. SLOW WARMING TREND THEN EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 326 AM MDT TUE JUN 9 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1111 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015
FOR THE MOST PART...THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO WILL BE QUIET AS A MUCH
DRIER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION. STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS RESULT
OF DEEPER MIXING EXPECTED TO EASE QUICKLY TOWARD SUNSET. DIURNAL
CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS EASTERN CWA WILL ALSO DISSIPATE. THERE IS A
SUBTLE WAVE BACK ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA WHICH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT. RAP ACTUALLY RUNS WITH THIS TO PRODUCE A LITTLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/EASTERN CWA...WHERE A FEW MODELS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE
LESS THAN 100 J/KG OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...MOST MODELS
SUGGEST THAT MOISTURE LIMITED ENOUGH TO MINIMIZE THREAT FOR ANY
MEANINGFUL ELEVATED INSTABILITY...AND LIFT FORCING IS FAIRLY WEAK ON
THE LARGER SCALE...SO WENT ALONG WITH THE MAJORITY AND KEPT ANY
ISOLATED PRECIP OUT OF THE NORTHEAST CWA LATER TONIGHT...SIMPLY
MARKING AREA WITH AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
TUESDAY EASILY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR. 90S WILL BE
COMMON WITH DEEP SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA... WITH
925 HPA TEMPS SUPPORTIVE OF LOWER TO MID 90S WITH EVEN MODEST
MIXING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH NORTHERN STREAM WAVE PUSHING TOWARD
THE GREAT LAKES WILL SETTLE TOWARD THE FAR NORTHERN CWA LATE DAY.
HOWEVER... CONVERGENCE INDICATED ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS
MINIMAL...MAIN DYNAMICS DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST...AND DEEP
MIXING WILL ELIMINATE A GOOD DEAL OF CAPE. ENOUGH SHALLOW FRONTAL
FORCING AND PERHAPS ENOUGH POOLING OF MOISTURE TO WRING UP A 500-
1000 J/KG CAPE. HODOGRAPHS WOULD BE FAIRLY LINEAR AND VECTORS
ORIENTED TO MAINTAIN AN ISOLATED NATURE TO ANY DEVELOPMENT. AT THE
TIME...ONLY VERY LATE AFTERNOON WILL FIND ANY CHANCE FOR
STORMS...AND THAT WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE FAR NORTHERN CWA CLOSEST
TO THE FRONTAL FORCING. INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO GENERATE STORMS
FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST ALONG THE FRONT. A MARGINAL...BUT VERY
CONDITIONAL...RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WOULD SEEM APPROPRIATE...
MAINLY A HAIL AND WIND THREAT WITH INVERTED V TYPE SOUNDINGS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015
DYNAMICS AND SHEAR WITH COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOUTHEAST QUICKLY
TUESDAY EVENING AND AIR WILL BECOME MORE STABLE AFTER SUNSET. WITH
MARGINAL MOISTURE EXPECT LOW COVERAGE OF WHATEVER STORMS DEVELOP AND
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE EVENING...MAINLY EARLY EVENING...
FROM THE BROOKINGS AREA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. THIS THREAT AND
MODEST CLOUD COVER WILL PASS ON TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THIS SHOULD
LEAVE SKIES EVERYWHERE MOSTLY CLEAR FOR LATE NIGHT. VERY MODEST
COOLING WILL TAKE TEMPERATURES DOWN TO AROUND 60 NORTH WITH MID TO
UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AFTER THE HOT DAY.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY EAST AND DRY UNTIL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON STORMS WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE 80 TO 86
RANGE...OF COURSE SOME NOTCHES BELOW TUESDAYS HEAT.
THERE IS ENOUGH THERMAL SUPPORT AND ENOUGH DYNAMICS WITH SHORTWAVE
MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR THURSDAY TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF
LIKELY COPIOUS INCOMING MOISTURE TO BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS. ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE STEADILY FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FAR WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY SEEMS LIKELY TO BRING A HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH THE
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY. WILL NOT MENTION THE HEAVY THREAT IN THE
GRIDS THIS FAR AHEAD IN DEFERENCE TO DOUBTS IN THE TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE. CERTAINLY THE PATTERNS OF SOME OF THE COPIOUS MODEL
RAINFALL OUTPUT CAN CHANGE EVEN IF THEY HAVE THE GENERAL THREAT
NAILED. BUT WE CAN CERTAINLY EMPHASIZE THE WIDESPREAD NATURE AND
POSSIBLY THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT IN SOME OF OUR PRODUCTS.
AGAIN...RESIDUAL MOISTURE AT MID LEVELS FROM THE CURRENT DYING
EASTERN PACIFIC STORM MAY FIGURE INTO THE MIX. TEMPERATURES
OF COURSE WILL BE COOLER THURSDAY BETWEEN COOLING AS THE SYSTEM
PASSES THROUGH AND THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN.
THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE BUT NOT
COMPLETE END TO SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR A DAY OR SO FRIDAY. ANOTHER
WAVE THEN APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE WEEKEND...AGAIN
UPPING THE CONVECTION THREAT FOR THE WEEKEND...THOUGH NOT AS
STRONGLY AS THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKER. A COOL REGIME WILL
WARM JUST A LITTLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY. SOME
RIDGING BY MONDAY BEHIND THE WEEKEND SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE A DRY DAY
MONDAY...BUT WILL GO WITH THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE AND KEEP A MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION IN MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY...THE WEEKEND HAVING
GAINED A PRECIPITATION THREAT AFTER LOOKING DRY A COUPLE DAYS
AGO...AND MONDAY COULD DO THE SAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH-RES MODELS
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE VERY SPOTTY MID LEVEL CONVECTION MAINLY
NORTHEAST OF KHON/KFSD THROUGH MID MORNING TUESDAY...BUT SEEING
LITTLE EVIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRING UPSTREAM AND THUS ANTICIPATE NO
MORE THAN A SCATTERED-BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK AT THE KHON/KFSD
TAF LOCATIONS. SECOND WAVE COULD BRING SPOTTY MID LEVEL CONVECTION
TO AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF I-90 AGAIN LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE OF THIS IS LOW AT THIS TIME...SO NO MENTION
OF MORE THAN SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
833 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015
.UPDATE...
NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MID
SOUTH THIS EVENING...BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW MENTIONABLE POP LEVELS.
IN FACT...A LONE STORM NEAR BARTLETT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY
SOUTHWESTWARD AND MAY PRODUCE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS. MODERATE AMOUNTS OF THERMODYNAMIC INSTABILITY STILL REMAINS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE MID SOUTH THIS EVENING WITH
MLCAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 2000 J/KG. THEREFORE...CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT COVERAGE. THE CURRENT FORECAST MAINTAINS
SILENT POPS THIS EVENING AND NOT PLANNING ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME
BASED UPON CURRENT COVERAGE. PLAN TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.
JLH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015/
TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER WEATHER HAS SET IN ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S...HEAT INDICES WERE
BETWEEN ONE AND THREE DEGREES WARMER IN MOST SPOTS. A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 BUT DRY AIR
ALOFT IS LIMITING THEIR DEVELOPMENT.
FOR TONIGHT...WILL GO WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR FORECAST. BOTH THE HRRR
AND RAP SHOW RAIN FREE CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH ANY CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON DISSIPATING BY SUNSET. HOWEVER...WILL MONITOR IN
CASE STORMS DO DEVELOP MORE THAN ANTICIPATED THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF
COASTAL STATES WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW
INCREASING MOISTURE TO PUSH INTO THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
WITH DAYTIME HEATING...SIMILAR TO TODAY PERHAPS A DEGREE
LESS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WITH
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH MS.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH FRIDAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE GULF
COAST. SOUTHERLY FLOW SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL CAUSE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCES ONCE AGAIN AS YOU GO SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERED SOME BY MORE CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED CONVECTION.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
OVER THE WEEKEND...AND PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. SEASONABLY WARM
WEATHER WILL OCCUR. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE BETTER
CHANCES MAY GRADUALLY SHIFT TO ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER AS
THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO THE EAST. IN ADDITION...WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY AFFECT AREAS
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER.
JCL
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. THERE WILL
BE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THURSDAY...MAINLY NEAR
TUP...SO HAVE TEMPO GROUP REPRESENTING THIS POTENTIAL DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE FROM SOUTH BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH AT ALL
SITES.
TVT
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
619 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015
.UPDATE...
AVIATION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE...
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015/
DISCUSSION...
TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER WEATHER HAS SET IN ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S...HEAT INDICES WERE
BETWEEN ONE AND THREE DEGREES WARMER IN MOST SPOTS. A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 BUT DRY AIR
ALOFT IS LIMITING THEIR DEVELOPMENT.
FOR TONIGHT...WILL GO WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR FORECAST. BOTH THE HRRR
AND RAP SHOW RAIN FREE CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH ANY CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON DISSIPATING BY SUNSET. HOWEVER...WILL MONITOR IN
CASE STORMS DO DEVELOP MORE THAN ANTICIPATED THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF
COASTAL STATES WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW
INCREASING MOISTURE TO PUSH INTO THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
WITH DAYTIME HEATING...SIMILAR TO TODAY PERHAPS A DEGREE
LESS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WITH
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH MS.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH FRIDAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE GULF
COAST. SOUTHERLY FLOW SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL CAUSE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCES ONCE AGAIN AS YOU GO SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERED SOME BY MORE CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED CONVECTION.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
OVER THE WEEKEND...AND PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. SEASONABLY WARM
WEATHER WILL OCCUR. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE BETTER
CHANCES MAY GRADUALLY SHIFT TO ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER AS
THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO THE EAST. IN ADDITION...WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY AFFECT AREAS
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER.
JCL
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. THERE WILL
BE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THURSDAY...MAINLY NEAR
TUP...SO HAVE TEMPO GROUP REPRESENTING THIS POTENTIAL DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE FROM SOUTH BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH AT ALL
SITES.
TVT
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1256 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
.AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERNS FOR 18 UTC TAF CYCLE WILL BE FOR LOW THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AND GRADUAL WINDSHIFT.
FOR THE METROPLEX TAF STIES...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACTUALLY DWINDLE SOMEWHAT ACROSS THIS REGION AS THE WEAK WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHWARD. ANY
STORM THAT DEVELOPS INVOF OF THE TERMINALS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY
LOW THAT ANY ONE TAF SITE WILL BE IMPACTED SO WILL ONLY CARRY
VCTS FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN
TOWARDS THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK FRONT AS
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SLIDES TO THE EAST THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR FLYING CONDITIONS.
FOR THE WACO TAF SITE...STORM CHANCES APPEAR HIGHER ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTH TEXAS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LIFT
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. MAIN IMPACTS ASSOCIATED
WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL.
BAIN
&&
.UPDATE...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BUILDING CU FIELD ACROSS THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOWER 90S.
MOISTURE IS RATHER THIN THOUGH AS MCKINNEY AND GREENVILLE HAVE
ALREADY MIXED OUT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S. FAVORED AREA FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS RIGHT ACROSS THE METROPLEX
OVER THE NEXT HOUR. ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD DRIFT SOUTH OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OTHER THAN TO ADJUST
THE 20 POPS SLIGHTLY BASED ON LATEST CU FIELD.
DUNN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015/
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A SHEARED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SOUTHEAST OVER
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. THIS TROUGH WAS MOVING IN A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TODAY. FARTHER TO THE WEST...A WEAK CUT OFF SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
EMBEDDED IN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW/RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS. THE DYNAMICAL REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BLANCA WERE
OBSERVED MOVING NORTH INTO THIS UPPER RIDGE AXIS...AND A STRONG
UPPER LOW WAS IN PLACE OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN JUST OFF SHORE OF
CALIFORNIA.
TODAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WAS LOCATED NORTHEAST OF NORTH
TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO SWING SOUTH OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO DIRECTLY
PROVIDE ANY SORT OF LIFT OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS A RESULT.
AS THIS TROUGH MOVES SOUTH OVER FAR EAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA TODAY
SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT IT WILL SEND A WEAK
BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DOES NOT INDICATE MUCH OF A
BOUNDARY RIGHT NOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BUT THE NAM...TTU-
WRF...AND HRRR INDICATE THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL BECOME MORE
COHERENT BY LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODEL
CHARACTERISTICS OF THE FRONT APPEAR TO BE SIMILAR TO A PACIFIC
TYPE COLD FRONT CHARACTERIZED BY MORE OF A GRADIENT OF MOISTURE
RATHER THAN TEMPERATURE. EITHER WAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOES
APPEAR TO BE FAIRLY WEAK AND IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO ANALYZE THE
SUBTLE CHANGES IN TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ON
A STANDARD SURFACE MAP. HOWEVER...MODELS INDICATE A WIND SHIFT
LINE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY...SO IT SHOULD BE EASY TO TRACK
SIMPLY WATCHING FOR A CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
REGARDLESS...THE HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE THAT INDICATES THAT THE
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN TACT AS IT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON ALSO GENERATES ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE
LEADING/SOUTH EDGE OF THE BOUNDARY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS
OF THE DAY TODAY...OR AROUND 4PM/21Z.
IF STORMS DO DEVELOP...THE SOMEWHAT WEAK NATURE OF FORCING FOR
ASCENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY SUGGESTS THE COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD
REMAIN ISOLATED...SO MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT SEE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON EVEN IF THE BOUNDARY DOES AID IN CONVECTION
INITIATION. IF STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY...THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT SHORT LIVED WITH 0-8 KM BULK SHEAR
MAGNITUDES ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15 KTS. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
UP TO 1000 J/KG OF CAPE MAY BE AVAILABLE FOR STORMS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...AND THIS COMBINATION OF CAPE AND SHEAR STRONGLY
SUGGESTS ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE SINGLE CELL OR AIRMASS IN
STRUCTURE. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY
LOW TODAY AS A RESULT...WITH CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY
GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS THE ONLY EXPECTED HAZARDS. THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT STORMS WILL SIMPLY NOT DEVELOP ALONG THIS WEAK BOUNDARY THIS
AFTERNOON...SO ONLY WENT WITH 20 POPS AS A RESULT. STORMS SHOULD
BE DRIVEN BY DAYTIME HEATING AND THE WEAK BOUNDARY...SO DID NOT
CARRY POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE SPURIOUS QPF IN SEEMINGLY RANDOM PLACES OVER THE CWA
EACH AFTERNOON FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK...WENT WITH A DRY
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. DO NOT SEE ANY OBVIOUS FORCING MECHANISM TO
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD...AND THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING BACK OVER THE REGION.
THE CUT OFF LOW CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS...AND THE REMNANTS OF BLANCA...ARE BOTH
EXPECTED TO MOVE WELL NORTH OF THE CWA AND HAVE NO APPRECIABLE
IMPACT ON OUR LOCAL WEATHER. BY LATE FRIDAY...THE STRONG UPPER LOW
JUST OFF SHORE THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS EXPECTED TO PUSH FAR ENOUGH
EAST TO REMOVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE REGION. HOWEVER SINCE
THIS DOES NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY...THINK THAT
FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP
THINGS DRY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD CONSENSUS THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL STALL OUT OVER NEW
MEXICO...HELPING TO PUSH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OFF TOWARDS THE EAST.
THIS LEAVES THE CWA UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT MORE
IMPORTANTLY...REMOVES THE LARGE SCALE FEATURE THAT IS EXPECTED TO
KEEP SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION FOR LATE THIS WEEK. THE REMOVAL OF
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION WILL NO LONGER SUPPRESS
CONVECTION...HOWEVER SIMPLY REMOVING SUBSIDENCE DOES NOT RESULT IN
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALL OVER THE CWA EITHER. WITH MODELS MORE
OR LESS KEEPING THE UPPER LOW IN PLACE OVER WEST TEXAS OR NEW
MEXICO FOR THIS WEEKEND THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY...SIMPLY WENT
AHEAD AND KEPT BROAD BRUSHED 20-40 POPS ACROSS THE CWA EACH DAY.
AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND...MODELS WILL BETTER RESOLVE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...ALLOWING
US A CHANCE TO BETTER DISCRIMINATE THOSE PERIODS MORE AND LESS
LIKELY TO SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS WEEKEND IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE A WASH-OUT BY ANY MEANS...BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
APPEAR TO BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN 5-7 DEGREES
COOLER THIS WEEKEND COMPARED TO THIS WEEK.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 95 75 95 73 93 / 20 5 5 5 5
WACO, TX 94 72 94 71 92 / 20 5 5 5 5
PARIS, TX 92 72 92 71 90 / 10 5 5 10 10
DENTON, TX 94 71 94 72 92 / 20 5 5 5 5
MCKINNEY, TX 93 71 93 72 91 / 20 5 5 5 10
DALLAS, TX 95 76 95 75 93 / 20 5 5 5 5
TERRELL, TX 94 72 94 73 92 / 20 5 5 5 10
CORSICANA, TX 93 73 93 73 91 / 20 5 10 5 10
TEMPLE, TX 92 71 93 71 92 / 20 10 10 10 5
MINERAL WELLS, TX 94 70 95 71 93 / 20 0 5 5 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
15/91
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1212 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z SOUNDING AT LCH SHOWS PW VALUES NEAR 2.00 INCHES WITH
CONVECTIVE TEMPS AROUND 84 DEGREES. AN ELONGATED VORT LOBE WILL
MOVE TOWARD SE TX FROM THE NE LATER THIS AFTN. THE NCEP 4 KM WRF
IS AGGRESSIVE WITH SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ALONG THE VORT MAX AS IT
MOVES SW. THE RAP IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SOMETHING SIMILAR. ADDED
VCSH FOR IAH TAF AND TSRA MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY IS THE 4 KM
WRF IS CORRECT. GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN RATHER QUIET TODAY YET THEY
ALL SHOW THE VORT APPROACHING. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE BROADLY
DIFFLUENT SO AM LEANING A BIT TOWARD THE MORE AGGRESSIVE WRF/RAP.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON WEDS AFTN. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015/
DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR AND UPPER AIR DATA SHOWING NW TO SE ORIENTED UPPER
TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH NE TEXAS ON EASTERN FLANK OF
UPPER RIDGE. THIS UPPER TROUGH AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE ARE TWO
POTENTIAL TRIGGERS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON. STILL THINKING COVERAGE OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT SHOULD
COVER IT AS MODEL SOUNDINGS NOT PARTICULARLY MOIST. PWAT FROM CRP
AND FWD MORNING SOUNDING JUST 1.3 INCHES...SHV MORE LIKE 1.6
INCHES. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS...GOING WITH A MORE OPTIMISTIC START. LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO
TEMPS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015/
DISCUSSION...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE STATE THAT HAS BEEN MOSTLY RESPONSIBLE
FOR OUR RECENT DRY SPELL AND ASSOCIATED WARMER TEMPERATURES IS STILL
ON TRACK TO MOVE OFF TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND GRADUALLY
RISING MAINLY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING RAIN CHANCES. A WEAK
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY IN THE FORMATION STAGES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND EDGE WESTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN GULF WATERS BY THE END
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE TO
EDGE INTO OUR AREA AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN BETTER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND THE
CHANCE FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TOO. 42
MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS/SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN TIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LONG FETCH
STRETCHING INTO THE CARIBBEAN WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO INCREASING
SEASON AND ADVISORIES/CAUTION FLAGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING PARTS OF
THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL ALSO INCREASE AND PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
FRI-SUN. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 93 73 92 73 91 / 20 20 20 20 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 93 74 92 74 92 / 30 20 30 20 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 89 79 89 80 88 / 20 20 20 20 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...46
AVIATION/MARINE...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
644 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
.AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE 12 UTC TAF CYCLE REVOLVE AROUND SUBTLE
WINDSHIFT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS.
FOR THE METROPLEX TAF SITES...A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE METROPLEX TAF SITES AROUND 17-18 UTC.
OTHER THAN A WINDSHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS AS LIFT FROM AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH GRAZES THE AREA. OUTSIDE OF
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWER OR STORM
THAT DEVELOPS INVOF OF A GIVEN TERMINAL. OTHERWISE VFR FLYING
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. SOUTH WINDS
SHOULD RETURN AROUND MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY.
FOR THE WACO TAF SITE...THERE IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
THE COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORMS ACROSS THIS AREA WITH THE
STRONGER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH ALOFT. MAIN HAZARDS
OUTSIDE OF LIGHTNING WILL BE GUSTY WINDS. WINDS THROUGH THE TAF
CYCLE SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY.
BAIN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015/
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A SHEARED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SOUTHEAST OVER
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. THIS TROUGH WAS MOVING IN A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TODAY. FARTHER TO THE WEST...A WEAK CUT OFF SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
EMBEDDED IN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW/RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS. THE DYNAMICAL REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BLANCA WERE
OBSERVED MOVING NORTH INTO THIS UPPER RIDGE AXIS...AND A STRONG
UPPER LOW WAS IN PLACE OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN JUST OFF SHORE OF
CALIFORNIA.
TODAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WAS LOCATED NORTHEAST OF NORTH
TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO SWING SOUTH OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO DIRECTLY
PROVIDE ANY SORT OF LIFT OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS A RESULT.
AS THIS TROUGH MOVES SOUTH OVER FAR EAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA TODAY
SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT IT WILL SEND A WEAK
BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DOES NOT INDICATE MUCH OF A
BOUNDARY RIGHT NOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BUT THE NAM...TTU-
WRF...AND HRRR INDICATE THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL BECOME MORE
COHERENT BY LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODEL
CHARACTERISTICS OF THE FRONT APPEAR TO BE SIMILAR TO A PACIFIC
TYPE COLD FRONT CHARACTERIZED BY MORE OF A GRADIENT OF MOISTURE
RATHER THAN TEMPERATURE. EITHER WAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOES
APPEAR TO BE FAIRLY WEAK AND IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO ANALYZE THE
SUBTLE CHANGES IN TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ON
A STANDARD SURFACE MAP. HOWEVER...MODELS INDICATE A WIND SHIFT
LINE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY...SO IT SHOULD BE EASY TO TRACK
SIMPLY WATCHING FOR A CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
REGARDLESS...THE HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE THAT INDICATES THAT THE
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN TACT AS IT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON ALSO GENERATES ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE
LEADING/SOUTH EDGE OF THE BOUNDARY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS
OF THE DAY TODAY...OR AROUND 4PM/21Z.
IF STORMS DO DEVELOP...THE SOMEWHAT WEAK NATURE OF FORCING FOR
ASCENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY SUGGESTS THE COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD
REMAIN ISOLATED...SO MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT SEE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON EVEN IF THE BOUNDARY DOES AID IN CONVECTION
INITIATION. IF STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY...THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT SHORT LIVED WITH 0-8 KM BULK SHEAR
MAGNITUDES ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15 KTS. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
UP TO 1000 J/KG OF CAPE MAY BE AVAILABLE FOR STORMS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...AND THIS COMBINATION OF CAPE AND SHEAR STRONGLY
SUGGESTS ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE SINGLE CELL OR AIRMASS IN
STRUCTURE. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY
LOW TODAY AS A RESULT...WITH CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY
GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS THE ONLY EXPECTED HAZARDS. THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT STORMS WILL SIMPLY NOT DEVELOP ALONG THIS WEAK BOUNDARY THIS
AFTERNOON...SO ONLY WENT WITH 20 POPS AS A RESULT. STORMS SHOULD
BE DRIVEN BY DAYTIME HEATING AND THE WEAK BOUNDARY...SO DID NOT
CARRY POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE SPURIOUS QPF IN SEEMINGLY RANDOM PLACES OVER THE CWA
EACH AFTERNOON FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK...WENT WITH A DRY
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. DO NOT SEE ANY OBVIOUS FORCING MECHANISM TO
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD...AND THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING BACK OVER THE REGION.
THE CUT OFF LOW CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS...AND THE REMNANTS OF BLANCA...ARE BOTH
EXPECTED TO MOVE WELL NORTH OF THE CWA AND HAVE NO APPRECIABLE
IMPACT ON OUR LOCAL WEATHER. BY LATE FRIDAY...THE STRONG UPPER LOW
JUST OFF SHORE THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS EXPECTED TO PUSH FAR ENOUGH
EAST TO REMOVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE REGION. HOWEVER SINCE
THIS DOES NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY...THINK THAT
FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP
THINGS DRY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD CONSENSUS THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL STALL OUT OVER NEW
MEXICO...HELPING TO PUSH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OFF TOWARDS THE EAST.
THIS LEAVES THE CWA UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT MORE
IMPORTANTLY...REMOVES THE LARGE SCALE FEATURE THAT IS EXPECTED TO
KEEP SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION FOR LATE THIS WEEK. THE REMOVAL OF
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION WILL NO LONGER SUPPRESS
CONVECTION...HOWEVER SIMPLY REMOVING SUBSIDENCE DOES NOT RESULT IN
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALL OVER THE CWA EITHER. WITH MODELS MORE
OR LESS KEEPING THE UPPER LOW IN PLACE OVER WEST TEXAS OR NEW
MEXICO FOR THIS WEEKEND THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY...SIMPLY WENT
AHEAD AND KEPT BROAD BRUSHED 20-40 POPS ACROSS THE CWA EACH DAY.
AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND...MODELS WILL BETTER RESOLVE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...ALLOWING
US A CHANCE TO BETTER DISCRIMINATE THOSE PERIODS MORE AND LESS
LIKELY TO SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS WEEKEND IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE A WASH-OUT BY ANY MEANS...BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
APPEAR TO BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN 5-7 DEGREES
COOLER THIS WEEKEND COMPARED TO THIS WEEK.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 95 75 95 73 93 / 20 5 5 5 5
WACO, TX 94 72 94 71 92 / 20 5 5 5 5
PARIS, TX 92 72 92 71 90 / 5 5 5 10 10
DENTON, TX 94 71 94 72 92 / 10 5 5 5 5
MCKINNEY, TX 93 71 93 72 91 / 10 5 5 5 10
DALLAS, TX 95 76 95 75 93 / 20 5 5 5 5
TERRELL, TX 94 72 94 73 92 / 20 5 5 5 10
CORSICANA, TX 93 73 93 73 91 / 20 5 10 5 10
TEMPLE, TX 92 71 93 71 92 / 20 10 10 10 5
MINERAL WELLS, TX 94 70 95 71 93 / 20 0 5 5 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
15/69
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
259 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
.DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A SHEARED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SOUTHEAST OVER
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. THIS TROUGH WAS MOVING IN A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TODAY. FARTHER TO THE WEST...A WEAK CUT OFF SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
EMBEDDED IN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW/RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS. THE DYNAMICAL REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BLANCA WERE
OBSERVED MOVING NORTH INTO THIS UPPER RIDGE AXIS...AND A STRONG
UPPER LOW WAS IN PLACE OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN JUST OFF SHORE OF
CALIFORNIA.
TODAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WAS LOCATED NORTHEAST OF NORTH
TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO SWING SOUTH OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO DIRECTLY
PROVIDE ANY SORT OF LIFT OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS A RESULT.
AS THIS TROUGH MOVES SOUTH OVER FAR EAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA TODAY
SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT IT WILL SEND A WEAK
BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DOES NOT INDICATE MUCH OF A
BOUNDARY RIGHT NOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BUT THE NAM...TTU-
WRF...AND HRRR INDICATE THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL BECOME MORE
COHERENT BY LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODEL
CHARACTERISTICS OF THE FRONT APPEAR TO BE SIMILAR TO A PACIFIC
TYPE COLD FRONT CHARACTERIZED BY MORE OF A GRADIENT OF MOISTURE
RATHER THAN TEMPERATURE. EITHER WAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOES
APPEAR TO BE FAIRLY WEAK AND IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO ANALYZE THE
SUBTLE CHANGES IN TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ON
A STANDARD SURFACE MAP. HOWEVER...MODELS INDICATE A WIND SHIFT
LINE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY...SO IT SHOULD BE EASY TO TRACK
SIMPLY WATCHING FOR A CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
REGARDLESS...THE HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE THAT INDICATES THAT THE
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN TACT AS IT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON ALSO GENERATES ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE
LEADING/SOUTH EDGE OF THE BOUNDARY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS
OF THE DAY TODAY...OR AROUND 4PM/21Z.
IF STORMS DO DEVELOP...THE SOMEWHAT WEAK NATURE OF FORCING FOR
ASCENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY SUGGESTS THE COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD
REMAIN ISOLATED...SO MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT SEE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON EVEN IF THE BOUNDARY DOES AID IN CONVECTION
INITIATION. IF STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY...THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT SHORT LIVED WITH 0-8 KM BULK SHEAR
MAGNITUDES ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15 KTS. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
UP TO 1000 J/KG OF CAPE MAY BE AVAILABLE FOR STORMS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...AND THIS COMBINATION OF CAPE AND SHEAR STRONGLY
SUGGESTS ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE SINGLE CELL OR AIRMASS IN
STRUCTURE. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY
LOW TODAY AS A RESULT...WITH CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY
GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS THE ONLY EXPECTED HAZARDS. THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT STORMS WILL SIMPLY NOT DEVELOP ALONG THIS WEAK BOUNDARY THIS
AFTERNOON...SO ONLY WENT WITH 20 POPS AS A RESULT. STORMS SHOULD
BE DRIVEN BY DAYTIME HEATING AND THE WEAK BOUNDARY...SO DID NOT
CARRY POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE SPURIOUS QPF IN SEEMINGLY RANDOM PLACES OVER THE CWA
EACH AFTERNOON FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK...WENT WITH A DRY
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. DO NOT SEE ANY OBVIOUS FORCING MECHANISM TO
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD...AND THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING BACK OVER THE REGION.
THE CUT OFF LOW CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS...AND THE REMNANTS OF BLANCA...ARE BOTH
EXPECTED TO MOVE WELL NORTH OF THE CWA AND HAVE NO APPRECIABLE
IMPACT ON OUR LOCAL WEATHER. BY LATE FRIDAY...THE STRONG UPPER LOW
JUST OFF SHORE THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS EXPECTED TO PUSH FAR ENOUGH
EAST TO REMOVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE REGION. HOWEVER SINCE
THIS DOES NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY...THINK THAT
FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP
THINGS DRY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD CONSENSUS THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL STALL OUT OVER NEW
MEXICO...HELPING TO PUSH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OFF TOWARDS THE EAST.
THIS LEAVES THE CWA UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT MORE
IMPORTANTLY...REMOVES THE LARGE SCALE FEATURE THAT IS EXPECTED TO
KEEP SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION FOR LATE THIS WEEK. THE REMOVAL OF
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION WILL NO LONGER SUPPRESS
CONVECTION...HOWEVER SIMPLY REMOVING SUBSIDENCE DOES NOT RESULT IN
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALL OVER THE CWA EITHER. WITH MODELS MORE
OR LESS KEEPING THE UPPER LOW IN PLACE OVER WEST TEXAS OR NEW
MEXICO FOR THIS WEEKEND THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY...SIMPLY WENT
AHEAD AND KEPT BROAD BRUSHED 20-40 POPS ACROSS THE CWA EACH DAY.
AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND...MODELS WILL BETTER RESOLVE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...ALLOWING
US A CHANCE TO BETTER DISCRIMINATE THOSE PERIODS MORE AND LESS
LIKELY TO SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS WEEKEND IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE A WASH-OUT BY ANY MEANS...BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
APPEAR TO BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN 5-7 DEGREES
COOLER THIS WEEKEND COMPARED TO THIS WEEK.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1135 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL NORTH TEXAS TERMINALS
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS A
WEAK FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY BUT COVERAGE WILL BE VERY
LIMITED AND GENERALLY CONFINED TO AREAS EAST OF THE TAF SITES.
79
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 95 75 95 73 93 / 20 5 5 5 5
WACO, TX 94 72 94 71 92 / 20 5 5 5 5
PARIS, TX 92 72 92 71 90 / 5 5 5 10 10
DENTON, TX 94 71 94 72 92 / 10 5 5 5 5
MCKINNEY, TX 93 71 93 72 91 / 10 5 5 5 10
DALLAS, TX 95 76 95 75 93 / 20 5 5 5 5
TERRELL, TX 94 72 94 73 92 / 20 5 5 5 10
CORSICANA, TX 93 73 93 73 91 / 20 5 10 5 10
TEMPLE, TX 92 71 93 71 92 / 20 10 10 10 5
MINERAL WELLS, TX 94 70 95 71 93 / 20 0 5 5 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
642 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015
...SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAIN EVENT WITH FLOODING POSSIBLE BEGINNING
LATE THU...
CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED IN THE NORTHERN STREAM NORTHWEST FLOW FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOTED IN EASTERN
WASHINGTON. MEANWHILE...IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM AN UPPER TROUGH
WAS PRESENT OVER CALIFORNIA WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO NEBRASKA.
WITHIN THAT SOUTHWEST FLOW...SHORTWAVES OF NOTE WERE OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH. BOTH SHORTWAVES ARE GENERATING
CONVECTION OVER COLORADO. CONDITIONS ARE QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WITH A NOSE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. A DRY AIRMASS AS
DEPICTED ON THE 12Z MPX SOUNDING...REFLECTED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER
OF 0.67 INCHES...HAS ALLOWED FOR DEEP MIXING AGAIN...PUSHING
DEWPOINTS DOWN AS LOW AS THE UPPER 40S IN SOME SPOTS. WITH 925MB
TEMPS OF 19C NORTH TO 22C SOUTH AND PLENTY OF SUN...TEMPERATURES
HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. TO OUR SOUTH...THE COLD
FRONT FROM LAST NIGHT HAS STALLED JUST SOUTH OF I-80. A MUCH MORE
HUMID AIRMASS EXISTS SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S AND 850MB DEWPOINTS OF 10-14C.
MODELS PROG THE TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT TO LIFT
OUT...WHICH ALLOWS SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM TO IMPACT THE
AREA BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST FOR THE SHORT TERM IS IN NORTHEAST COLORADO.
AS THIS SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO NEBRASKA TONIGHT...DPVA FROM
IT COMBINED WITH A STRONG INCREASE IN THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET
SHOULD FIRE AN MCS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA. AN IMPORTANT POINT HERE TO
NOTE...WHERE THIS MCS TRACKS TONIGHT LOOKS TO HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS IN
HOW OUR HEAVY RAIN SETS UP FOR THU/THU NIGHT AND POSSIBLE SEVERE
CHANCES THU EVENING. THIS IS NICELY SEEN IN 10.03Z AND 10.09Z SREF
MEMBERS...AS WELL AS AMONGST RUN TO RUN TRENDS OF DETERMINISTIC
MODELS. THE 10.12Z NAM WANTS TO TRACK THE MCS NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHWEST MN BY 18Z THU. HOWEVER...FOLLOWING MORE OF A NORMAL
CORFIDI TO FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTOR APPROACH...THE MCS
SHOULD MOVE MORE EAST WHICH IS NICELY REFLECTED IN THE 10.00Z NSSL
WRF...10.12Z GFS/REGIONAL CANADIAN. A MORE EASTWARD APPROACH KEEPS
THE CURRENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN SOUTHERN IA FROM LIFTING AS FAR
NORTH...WHICH IN TURN WOULD HELP SET UP THE STRONG FRONTOGENESIS
ZONE THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY FARTHER SOUTH.
WHILE THAT MCS IS DEVELOPING TONIGHT...A WARM ADVECTION WING OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER SHOULD FORM OVER IOWA OVERNIGHT AND
LIFT NORTH INTO SECTIONS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WING OF
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH ON THURSDAY...WITH THE
PRECIPITATION EXPANDING OVERALL AS THE SHORTWAVE IN NEBRASKA MOVES
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONALLY...PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOOTS UP
TO AROUND 2 INCHES IN THE AFTERNOON...PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR THE
SHORTWAVE TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION AND EVEN HEAVY AT THAT. THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL ACT TO SATURATE THE SOILS...PRECONDITIONING THEM
FOR FLOODING PERHAPS AS EARLY AS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY COULD BE QUITE THE RAW DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...EXCEPT SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 18. NORTH OF THE FRONT...A BRISK NORTHEAST WIND
DRAWING IN LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL ALLOW FOR WET-BULBING. COOLED
HIGHS A BIT AS A RESULT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015
...FLOODING AND OTHER SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT...
THURSDAY NIGHT REMAINS THE MAJOR FOCUS FOR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
IMPACTS. THERE REMAINS STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THE CURRENT UTAH
SHORTWAVE TO COME ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT...PHASING AS WELL
WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY IN EASTERN
WASHINGTON. THE WHOLE SITUATION LOOKS SO SIMILAR TO A WINTER
SYNOPTIC STORM SYSTEM...EXCEPT THIS IS SUMMER AND WERE DEALING WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 2 INCHES AND UNSTABLE AIR. ALL MODELS SHOW
A JET COUPLING SCENARIO WITH A STRONG FRONTOGENESIS/FRONTOLYSIS
ZONE SETTING UP. THE CIRCULATION WILL LIKELY PICK UP INSTABILITY
FROM THE SOUTH...CAUSING THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ON
THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONTOGENESIS AND FRONTOLYSIS. THIS ZONE
HAS DEFINITELY DRIFTED SOUTH IN THE ENTIRE 10.12Z MODEL GUIDANCE...
WITH A CONSENSUS ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL RUNS SUCH AS THE DOWNSCALED NAM
ARE PRODUCING AS MUCH AS 4 TO 7 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL IN THE
FRONTOGENESIS ZONE. HOWEVER...ITS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THIS AXIS MAY
SHIFT NORTH OR SOUTH. AS A RESULT...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUED
ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE AXIS. ITS POSSIBLE THE
WATCH MAY NEED A TIER OF COUNTIES EXPANSION SOUTHWARD...PARTICULARLY
IF THE 10.12Z REGIONAL CANADIAN PANS OUT. MORE ON THE HYDROLOGY
IMPACTS BELOW IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION. BESIDES FLOODING...THERE
IS ALSO A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF US
HIGHWAY 18. DURING THE EVENING HOURS...THE WARM FRONT MAY LIFT AS
FAR NORTH AS THAT HIGHWAY...AS SUGGESTED IN THE 10.12Z
CANADIAN/ECMWF/NAM. IF SO...THE ENVIRONMENT HAS VERY FAVORABLE
SHEAR FOR ROTATING STORMS AND EVEN TORNADOES. THE PROBLEM MAY BE
THE CAPE WHICH IS MUCH HIGHER TO THE SOUTH NEAR I-80. THUS THE
SLIGHT RISK ON SPCS DAY 2 OUTLOOK.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO DEPART THE PRECIPITATION QUICKER ON
FRIDAY...IN RESPONSE TO THE PHASED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING AWAY FROM
THE REGION AND BRINGING IN SUBSIDENCE. FOLLOWED SUIT BUT DID KEEP
SOME LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
10.12Z ECMWF/GFS LINGERING AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER WESTERN WI.
CLOUDS STILL MAY TAKE AWHILE TO CLEAR...THOUGH...GIVEN SUBSIDENCE
AND TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THESE CLOUDS WILL HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN. MOST OF THE CLEARING SHOULD START TO OCCUR FRIDAY
NIGHT...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF I-90.
FOR THE WEEKEND...MUCH OF SATURDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY WITH THE
AREA DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACTIVE WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE PUSHED SOUTH TOWARDS I-70.
HOWEVER...FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
ROLL BACK INTO THE REGION. THESE ARE CAUSED BY A SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE AREA...BRINGING THE
WARM FRONT AND THE MOIST...UNSTABLE GULF OF MEXICO AIR WITH IT.
STILL SOME DISAGREEMENTS WITH THE MODELS ON THE CONVECTION...BUT THE
10.12Z CANADIAN/ECMWF BOTH WANT TO BRING A STRIPE OF 1-2 INCHES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WOULD ONLY EXACERBATE ANY RIVER
FLOODING. SOMETHING TO WATCH...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ECMWF
CONSISTENCY. THE 10.12Z GFS HAS TRENDED A BIT MORE WET AS WELL. MAY
NEED TO ALSO WATCH SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL AS THE ECMWF SHOWS DECENT 0-
6KM/0-3KM SHEAR.
NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO FEATURE MOSTLY A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN U.S. UNTIL ABOUT MIDWEEK WHEN TROUGHING FORMS OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN U.S. TO BUMP UP RIDGING DOWNSTREAM. THE TRICK IS TIMING
SHORTWAVES THROUGH THIS FLOW THAT CAN HELP TRIGGER SHOWERS AND
STORMS. RIGHT NOW THE GFS/CANADIAN AND ECMWF DO NOT AGREE AT ALL ON
WHEN...THUS THE FORECAST BROAD-BRUSHES 20 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCES.
WITH THE HIGH ZONAL FLOW...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR
SEASONABLE NORMS...AND BRIEF HUMID PERIODS AS SHORTWAVES PULL THE
MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THEN
CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MID
THURSDAY MORNING. THE RAINFALL COULD BE RATHER HEAVY AT TIMES
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. PLAN ON VISIBILITIES
FALLING TO 2 SM IN THE HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS WITH CEILINGS FALLING
TO AROUND 1 KFT. ALSO...EAST WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE REGION. PLAN ON EAST WINDS OF 14 TO 18
KTS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE 1
TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED 6 INCH
AMOUNTS. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE AREA FROM SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN IS UNDER THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL. HALF OF THIS RAINFALL COULD OCCUR IN A 3-6
HOUR TIME PERIOD BETWEEN LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY
EVENING...LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING. ADDITIONALLY...ALL THIS RAIN
WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES. CONTIGENCY FORECASTS SUGGEST
MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOOD STAGE REMAIN LIKELY FOR MOST RIVERS WHERE
THE HEAVIEST RAIN FALLS...EXCEPT THE MISSISSIPPI WHICH SEEMS
LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING. NOT ALL WEATHER EVENTS
ARE THE SAME...BUT THE AXIS AND AMOUNTS COULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO
THE SEPTEMBER 22-23 2010 EVENT.
RIVER BASINS CURRENTLY OF CONCERN INCLUDE BLACK...TREMPEALEAU...
BUFFALO...ROOT...ZUMBRO...CEDAR AND MISSISSIPPI.
ADDITIONALLY...WE NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON ADDITIONAL RAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WHICH COULD EITHER SLOW THE DROP OF
RIVERS OR EXACERABATE FLOODING CONCERNS. THERE ARE HINTS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES POSSIBLE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR WIZ017-029-034-042>044.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR WIZ032-033-041.
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR MNZ079-086>088-094>096.
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR IAZ008-009.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
HYDROLOGY...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
814 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015
.UPDATE...THIS EVENING
ISSUED AT 814 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND
HAVE MADE IT INTO DODGE AND WESTERN MOWER COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA. NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A TRACE TO MAYBE A
HUNDREDTH OF RAINFALL. THESE ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD WEAKEN AS
THEY APPROACH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS
ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015
...SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAIN EVENT WITH FLOODING POSSIBLE BEGINNING
LATE THU...
CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED IN THE NORTHERN STREAM NORTHWEST FLOW FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOTED IN EASTERN
WASHINGTON. MEANWHILE...IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM AN UPPER TROUGH
WAS PRESENT OVER CALIFORNIA WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO NEBRASKA.
WITHIN THAT SOUTHWEST FLOW...SHORTWAVES OF NOTE WERE OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH. BOTH SHORTWAVES ARE GENERATING
CONVECTION OVER COLORADO. CONDITIONS ARE QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WITH A NOSE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. A DRY AIRMASS AS
DEPICTED ON THE 12Z MPX SOUNDING...REFLECTED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER
OF 0.67 INCHES...HAS ALLOWED FOR DEEP MIXING AGAIN...PUSHING
DEWPOINTS DOWN AS LOW AS THE UPPER 40S IN SOME SPOTS. WITH 925MB
TEMPS OF 19C NORTH TO 22C SOUTH AND PLENTY OF SUN...TEMPERATURES
HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. TO OUR SOUTH...THE COLD
FRONT FROM LAST NIGHT HAS STALLED JUST SOUTH OF I-80. A MUCH MORE
HUMID AIRMASS EXISTS SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S AND 850MB DEWPOINTS OF 10-14C.
MODELS PROG THE TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT TO LIFT
OUT...WHICH ALLOWS SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM TO IMPACT THE
AREA BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST FOR THE SHORT TERM IS IN NORTHEAST COLORADO.
AS THIS SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO NEBRASKA TONIGHT...DPVA FROM
IT COMBINED WITH A STRONG INCREASE IN THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET
SHOULD FIRE AN MCS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA. AN IMPORTANT POINT HERE TO
NOTE...WHERE THIS MCS TRACKS TONIGHT LOOKS TO HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS IN
HOW OUR HEAVY RAIN SETS UP FOR THU/THU NIGHT AND POSSIBLE SEVERE
CHANCES THU EVENING. THIS IS NICELY SEEN IN 10.03Z AND 10.09Z SREF
MEMBERS...AS WELL AS AMONGST RUN TO RUN TRENDS OF DETERMINISTIC
MODELS. THE 10.12Z NAM WANTS TO TRACK THE MCS NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHWEST MN BY 18Z THU. HOWEVER...FOLLOWING MORE OF A NORMAL
CORFIDI TO FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTOR APPROACH...THE MCS
SHOULD MOVE MORE EAST WHICH IS NICELY REFLECTED IN THE 10.00Z NSSL
WRF...10.12Z GFS/REGIONAL CANADIAN. A MORE EASTWARD APPROACH KEEPS
THE CURRENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN SOUTHERN IA FROM LIFTING AS FAR
NORTH...WHICH IN TURN WOULD HELP SET UP THE STRONG FRONTOGENESIS
ZONE THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY FARTHER SOUTH.
WHILE THAT MCS IS DEVELOPING TONIGHT...A WARM ADVECTION WING OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER SHOULD FORM OVER IOWA OVERNIGHT AND
LIFT NORTH INTO SECTIONS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WING OF
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH ON THURSDAY...WITH THE
PRECIPITATION EXPANDING OVERALL AS THE SHORTWAVE IN NEBRASKA MOVES
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONALLY...PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOOTS UP
TO AROUND 2 INCHES IN THE AFTERNOON...PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR THE
SHORTWAVE TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION AND EVEN HEAVY AT THAT. THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL ACT TO SATURATE THE SOILS...PRECONDITIONING THEM
FOR FLOODING PERHAPS AS EARLY AS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY COULD BE QUITE THE RAW DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...EXCEPT SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 18. NORTH OF THE FRONT...A BRISK NORTHEAST WIND
DRAWING IN LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL ALLOW FOR WET-BULBING. COOLED
HIGHS A BIT AS A RESULT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015
...FLOODING AND OTHER SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT...
THURSDAY NIGHT REMAINS THE MAJOR FOCUS FOR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
IMPACTS. THERE REMAINS STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THE CURRENT UTAH
SHORTWAVE TO COME ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT...PHASING AS WELL
WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY IN EASTERN
WASHINGTON. THE WHOLE SITUATION LOOKS SO SIMILAR TO A WINTER
SYNOPTIC STORM SYSTEM...EXCEPT THIS IS SUMMER AND WERE DEALING WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 2 INCHES AND UNSTABLE AIR. ALL MODELS SHOW
A JET COUPLING SCENARIO WITH A STRONG FRONTOGENESIS/FRONTOLYSIS
ZONE SETTING UP. THE CIRCULATION WILL LIKELY PICK UP INSTABILITY
FROM THE SOUTH...CAUSING THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ON
THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONTOGENESIS AND FRONTOLYSIS. THIS ZONE
HAS DEFINITELY DRIFTED SOUTH IN THE ENTIRE 10.12Z MODEL GUIDANCE...
WITH A CONSENSUS ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL RUNS SUCH AS THE DOWNSCALED NAM
ARE PRODUCING AS MUCH AS 4 TO 7 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL IN THE
FRONTOGENESIS ZONE. HOWEVER...ITS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THIS AXIS MAY
SHIFT NORTH OR SOUTH. AS A RESULT...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUED
ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE AXIS. ITS POSSIBLE THE
WATCH MAY NEED A TIER OF COUNTIES EXPANSION SOUTHWARD...PARTICULARLY
IF THE 10.12Z REGIONAL CANADIAN PANS OUT. MORE ON THE HYDROLOGY
IMPACTS BELOW IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION. BESIDES FLOODING...THERE
IS ALSO A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF US
HIGHWAY 18. DURING THE EVENING HOURS...THE WARM FRONT MAY LIFT AS
FAR NORTH AS THAT HIGHWAY...AS SUGGESTED IN THE 10.12Z
CANADIAN/ECMWF/NAM. IF SO...THE ENVIRONMENT HAS VERY FAVORABLE
SHEAR FOR ROTATING STORMS AND EVEN TORNADOES. THE PROBLEM MAY BE
THE CAPE WHICH IS MUCH HIGHER TO THE SOUTH NEAR I-80. THUS THE
SLIGHT RISK ON SPCS DAY 2 OUTLOOK.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO DEPART THE PRECIPITATION QUICKER ON
FRIDAY...IN RESPONSE TO THE PHASED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING AWAY FROM
THE REGION AND BRINGING IN SUBSIDENCE. FOLLOWED SUIT BUT DID KEEP
SOME LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
10.12Z ECMWF/GFS LINGERING AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER WESTERN WI.
CLOUDS STILL MAY TAKE AWHILE TO CLEAR...THOUGH...GIVEN SUBSIDENCE
AND TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THESE CLOUDS WILL HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN. MOST OF THE CLEARING SHOULD START TO OCCUR FRIDAY
NIGHT...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF I-90.
FOR THE WEEKEND...MUCH OF SATURDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY WITH THE
AREA DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACTIVE WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE PUSHED SOUTH TOWARDS I-70.
HOWEVER...FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
ROLL BACK INTO THE REGION. THESE ARE CAUSED BY A SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE AREA...BRINGING THE
WARM FRONT AND THE MOIST...UNSTABLE GULF OF MEXICO AIR WITH IT.
STILL SOME DISAGREEMENTS WITH THE MODELS ON THE CONVECTION...BUT THE
10.12Z CANADIAN/ECMWF BOTH WANT TO BRING A STRIPE OF 1-2 INCHES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WOULD ONLY EXACERBATE ANY RIVER
FLOODING. SOMETHING TO WATCH...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ECMWF
CONSISTENCY. THE 10.12Z GFS HAS TRENDED A BIT MORE WET AS WELL. MAY
NEED TO ALSO WATCH SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL AS THE ECMWF SHOWS DECENT 0-
6KM/0-3KM SHEAR.
NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO FEATURE MOSTLY A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN U.S. UNTIL ABOUT MIDWEEK WHEN TROUGHING FORMS OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN U.S. TO BUMP UP RIDGING DOWNSTREAM. THE TRICK IS TIMING
SHORTWAVES THROUGH THIS FLOW THAT CAN HELP TRIGGER SHOWERS AND
STORMS. RIGHT NOW THE GFS/CANADIAN AND ECMWF DO NOT AGREE AT ALL ON
WHEN...THUS THE FORECAST BROAD-BRUSHES 20 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCES.
WITH THE HIGH ZONAL FLOW...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR
SEASONABLE NORMS...AND BRIEF HUMID PERIODS AS SHORTWAVES PULL THE
MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015
QUIET VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z
THURSDAY MORNING. A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL
CAUSE LOWERING CEILINGS...WITH SOME MVFR CEILINGS SPREADING INTO
VICINITY OF KBRD AND KHYR AFTER 17Z. HOWEVER...FOR NOW HAVE ONLY
PUT MVFR CEILINGS IN FOR AFTER 21Z FOR KHYR...THINKING KBRD TO BE
ON THE EDGE AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP IT OUT OF THAT
SITE FOR NOW. KDLH MAY ALSO DEVELOP SOME LOWER CEILINGS AS
NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT TIMING AND
CONFIDENCE LOW AT THIS TIME AND HAVE LEFT OUT FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE 1
TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED 6 INCH
AMOUNTS. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE AREA FROM SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN IS UNDER THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL. HALF OF THIS RAINFALL COULD OCCUR IN A 3-6
HOUR TIME PERIOD BETWEEN LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY
EVENING...LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING. ADDITIONALLY...ALL THIS RAIN
WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES. CONTIGENCY FORECASTS SUGGEST
MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOOD STAGE REMAIN LIKELY FOR MOST RIVERS WHERE
THE HEAVIEST RAIN FALLS...EXCEPT THE MISSISSIPPI WHICH SEEMS
LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING. NOT ALL WEATHER EVENTS
ARE THE SAME...BUT THE AXIS AND AMOUNTS COULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO
THE SEPTEMBER 22-23 2010 EVENT.
RIVER BASINS CURRENTLY OF CONCERN INCLUDE BLACK...TREMPEALEAU...
BUFFALO...ROOT...ZUMBRO...CEDAR AND MISSISSIPPI.
ADDITIONALLY...WE NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON ADDITIONAL RAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WHICH COULD EITHER SLOW THE DROP OF
RIVERS OR EXACERABATE FLOODING CONCERNS. THERE ARE HINTS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES POSSIBLE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR WIZ017-029-034-042>044.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR WIZ032-033-041.
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR MNZ079-086>088-094>096.
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR IAZ008-009.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WETENKAMP
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...LE
HYDROLOGY...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
655 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW. HAVE ALSO SENT AN UPDATE TO
FRESHEN UP FORECAST FOR LATEST TRENDS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015
...SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAIN EVENT WITH FLOODING POSSIBLE BEGINNING
LATE THU...
CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED IN THE NORTHERN STREAM NORTHWEST FLOW FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOTED IN EASTERN
WASHINGTON. MEANWHILE...IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM AN UPPER TROUGH
WAS PRESENT OVER CALIFORNIA WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO NEBRASKA.
WITHIN THAT SOUTHWEST FLOW...SHORTWAVES OF NOTE WERE OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH. BOTH SHORTWAVES ARE GENERATING
CONVECTION OVER COLORADO. CONDITIONS ARE QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WITH A NOSE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. A DRY AIRMASS AS
DEPICTED ON THE 12Z MPX SOUNDING...REFLECTED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER
OF 0.67 INCHES...HAS ALLOWED FOR DEEP MIXING AGAIN...PUSHING
DEWPOINTS DOWN AS LOW AS THE UPPER 40S IN SOME SPOTS. WITH 925MB
TEMPS OF 19C NORTH TO 22C SOUTH AND PLENTY OF SUN...TEMPERATURES
HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. TO OUR SOUTH...THE COLD
FRONT FROM LAST NIGHT HAS STALLED JUST SOUTH OF I-80. A MUCH MORE
HUMID AIRMASS EXISTS SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S AND 850MB DEWPOINTS OF 10-14C.
MODELS PROG THE TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT TO LIFT
OUT...WHICH ALLOWS SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM TO IMPACT THE
AREA BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST FOR THE SHORT TERM IS IN NORTHEAST COLORADO.
AS THIS SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO NEBRASKA TONIGHT...DPVA FROM
IT COMBINED WITH A STRONG INCREASE IN THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET
SHOULD FIRE AN MCS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA. AN IMPORTANT POINT HERE TO
NOTE...WHERE THIS MCS TRACKS TONIGHT LOOKS TO HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS IN
HOW OUR HEAVY RAIN SETS UP FOR THU/THU NIGHT AND POSSIBLE SEVERE
CHANCES THU EVENING. THIS IS NICELY SEEN IN 10.03Z AND 10.09Z SREF
MEMBERS...AS WELL AS AMONGST RUN TO RUN TRENDS OF DETERMINISTIC
MODELS. THE 10.12Z NAM WANTS TO TRACK THE MCS NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHWEST MN BY 18Z THU. HOWEVER...FOLLOWING MORE OF A NORMAL
CORFIDI TO FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTOR APPROACH...THE MCS
SHOULD MOVE MORE EAST WHICH IS NICELY REFLECTED IN THE 10.00Z NSSL
WRF...10.12Z GFS/REGIONAL CANADIAN. A MORE EASTWARD APPROACH KEEPS
THE CURRENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN SOUTHERN IA FROM LIFTING AS FAR
NORTH...WHICH IN TURN WOULD HELP SET UP THE STRONG FRONTOGENESIS
ZONE THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY FARTHER SOUTH.
WHILE THAT MCS IS DEVELOPING TONIGHT...A WARM ADVECTION WING OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER SHOULD FORM OVER IOWA OVERNIGHT AND
LIFT NORTH INTO SECTIONS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WING OF
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH ON THURSDAY...WITH THE
PRECIPITATION EXPANDING OVERALL AS THE SHORTWAVE IN NEBRASKA MOVES
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONALLY...PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOOTS UP
TO AROUND 2 INCHES IN THE AFTERNOON...PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR THE
SHORTWAVE TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION AND EVEN HEAVY AT THAT. THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL ACT TO SATURATE THE SOILS...PRECONDITIONING THEM
FOR FLOODING PERHAPS AS EARLY AS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY COULD BE QUITE THE RAW DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...EXCEPT SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 18. NORTH OF THE FRONT...A BRISK NORTHEAST WIND
DRAWING IN LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL ALLOW FOR WET-BULBING. COOLED
HIGHS A BIT AS A RESULT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015
...FLOODING AND OTHER SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT...
THURSDAY NIGHT REMAINS THE MAJOR FOCUS FOR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
IMPACTS. THERE REMAINS STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THE CURRENT UTAH
SHORTWAVE TO COME ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT...PHASING AS WELL
WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY IN EASTERN
WASHINGTON. THE WHOLE SITUATION LOOKS SO SIMILAR TO A WINTER
SYNOPTIC STORM SYSTEM...EXCEPT THIS IS SUMMER AND WERE DEALING WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 2 INCHES AND UNSTABLE AIR. ALL MODELS SHOW
A JET COUPLING SCENARIO WITH A STRONG FRONTOGENESIS/FRONTOLYSIS
ZONE SETTING UP. THE CIRCULATION WILL LIKELY PICK UP INSTABILITY
FROM THE SOUTH...CAUSING THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ON
THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONTOGENESIS AND FRONTOLYSIS. THIS ZONE
HAS DEFINITELY DRIFTED SOUTH IN THE ENTIRE 10.12Z MODEL GUIDANCE...
WITH A CONSENSUS ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL RUNS SUCH AS THE DOWNSCALED NAM
ARE PRODUCING AS MUCH AS 4 TO 7 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL IN THE
FRONTOGENESIS ZONE. HOWEVER...ITS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THIS AXIS MAY
SHIFT NORTH OR SOUTH. AS A RESULT...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUED
ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE AXIS. ITS POSSIBLE THE
WATCH MAY NEED A TIER OF COUNTIES EXPANSION SOUTHWARD...PARTICULARLY
IF THE 10.12Z REGIONAL CANADIAN PANS OUT. MORE ON THE HYDROLOGY
IMPACTS BELOW IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION. BESIDES FLOODING...THERE
IS ALSO A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF US
HIGHWAY 18. DURING THE EVENING HOURS...THE WARM FRONT MAY LIFT AS
FAR NORTH AS THAT HIGHWAY...AS SUGGESTED IN THE 10.12Z
CANADIAN/ECMWF/NAM. IF SO...THE ENVIRONMENT HAS VERY FAVORABLE
SHEAR FOR ROTATING STORMS AND EVEN TORNADOES. THE PROBLEM MAY BE
THE CAPE WHICH IS MUCH HIGHER TO THE SOUTH NEAR I-80. THUS THE
SLIGHT RISK ON SPCS DAY 2 OUTLOOK.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO DEPART THE PRECIPITATION QUICKER ON
FRIDAY...IN RESPONSE TO THE PHASED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING AWAY FROM
THE REGION AND BRINGING IN SUBSIDENCE. FOLLOWED SUIT BUT DID KEEP
SOME LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
10.12Z ECMWF/GFS LINGERING AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER WESTERN WI.
CLOUDS STILL MAY TAKE AWHILE TO CLEAR...THOUGH...GIVEN SUBSIDENCE
AND TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THESE CLOUDS WILL HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN. MOST OF THE CLEARING SHOULD START TO OCCUR FRIDAY
NIGHT...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF I-90.
FOR THE WEEKEND...MUCH OF SATURDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY WITH THE
AREA DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACTIVE WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE PUSHED SOUTH TOWARDS I-70.
HOWEVER...FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
ROLL BACK INTO THE REGION. THESE ARE CAUSED BY A SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE AREA...BRINGING THE
WARM FRONT AND THE MOIST...UNSTABLE GULF OF MEXICO AIR WITH IT.
STILL SOME DISAGREEMENTS WITH THE MODELS ON THE CONVECTION...BUT THE
10.12Z CANADIAN/ECMWF BOTH WANT TO BRING A STRIPE OF 1-2 INCHES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WOULD ONLY EXACERBATE ANY RIVER
FLOODING. SOMETHING TO WATCH...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ECMWF
CONSISTENCY. THE 10.12Z GFS HAS TRENDED A BIT MORE WET AS WELL. MAY
NEED TO ALSO WATCH SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL AS THE ECMWF SHOWS DECENT 0-
6KM/0-3KM SHEAR.
NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO FEATURE MOSTLY A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN U.S. UNTIL ABOUT MIDWEEK WHEN TROUGHING FORMS OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN U.S. TO BUMP UP RIDGING DOWNSTREAM. THE TRICK IS TIMING
SHORTWAVES THROUGH THIS FLOW THAT CAN HELP TRIGGER SHOWERS AND
STORMS. RIGHT NOW THE GFS/CANADIAN AND ECMWF DO NOT AGREE AT ALL ON
WHEN...THUS THE FORECAST BROAD-BRUSHES 20 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCES.
WITH THE HIGH ZONAL FLOW...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR
SEASONABLE NORMS...AND BRIEF HUMID PERIODS AS SHORTWAVES PULL THE
MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015
QUIET VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z
THURSDAY MORNING. A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL
CAUSE LOWERING CEILINGS...WITH SOME MVFR CEILINGS SPREADING INTO
VICINITY OF KBRD AND KHYR AFTER 17Z. HOWEVER...FOR NOW HAVE ONLY
PUT MVFR CEILINGS IN FOR AFTER 21Z FOR KHYR...THINKING KBRD TO BE
ON THE EDGE AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP IT OUT OF THAT
SITE FOR NOW. KDLH MAY ALSO DEVELOP SOME LOWER CEILINGS AS
NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT TIMING AND
CONFIDENCE LOW AT THIS TIME AND HAVE LEFT OUT FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE 1
TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED 6 INCH
AMOUNTS. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE AREA FROM SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN IS UNDER THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL. HALF OF THIS RAINFALL COULD OCCUR IN A 3-6
HOUR TIME PERIOD BETWEEN LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY
EVENING...LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING. ADDITIONALLY...ALL THIS RAIN
WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES. CONTIGENCY FORECASTS SUGGEST
MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOOD STAGE REMAIN LIKELY FOR MOST RIVERS WHERE
THE HEAVIEST RAIN FALLS...EXCEPT THE MISSISSIPPI WHICH SEEMS
LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING. NOT ALL WEATHER EVENTS
ARE THE SAME...BUT THE AXIS AND AMOUNTS COULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO
THE SEPTEMBER 22-23 2010 EVENT.
RIVER BASINS CURRENTLY OF CONCERN INCLUDE BLACK...TREMPEALEAU...
BUFFALO...ROOT...ZUMBRO...CEDAR AND MISSISSIPPI.
ADDITIONALLY...WE NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON ADDITIONAL RAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WHICH COULD EITHER SLOW THE DROP OF
RIVERS OR EXACERABATE FLOODING CONCERNS. THERE ARE HINTS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES POSSIBLE.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...LE
HYDROLOGY...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
256 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
...SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WITH FLOODING POSSIBLE
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED RIDGING OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
FROM SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. SHORTWAVES OF NOTE INCLUDE TWO OVER NORTHWEST WI AND
NORTHWEST ONTARIO...SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THERE.
THERE IS ALSO A SURFACE COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE NORTHWEST
ONTARIO WAVE...EXTENDING INTERNATIONAL FALLS MN TO PIERRE SD. SO FAR
THERE IS LIMITED CONVECTION ON THE FRONT. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF SUN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND 925MB TEMPS WARMING TO NOW IN THE 23C NEAR I-
39 TO AROUND 27C NEAR I-35 PER ACARS SOUNDINGS HAS SUPPORTED
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S...WARMEST ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. DEEP DRY AIRMASS IN THE 12Z MPX SOUNDING HAS
ALLOWED DEWPOINTS TO MIX DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. THESE LOW
DEWPOINTS ARE GREATLY REDUCING CAPE ALONG THE FRONT...AND COMBINED
WITH THE SHORTWAVES OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST REDUCING DYNAMIC
FORCING...IS WHY CONVECTION HAS BEEN LIMITED ON THE FRONT.
LASTLY...WELL TO OUR SOUTHWEST...A MULTITUDE OF SHORTWAVES WERE
PRESENT OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...UTAH AND ARIZONA...WHICH INCLUDES
THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE BLANCA. THESE ARE PROGGED TO TAKE AIM AT
THE AREA LATE THURSDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER ON THE 12Z TUSCON
SOUNDING WAS 1.6 INCHES.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DIVING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS THE NORTHWEST ONTARIO HEADS SOUTHEAST. IT
APPEARS ANY CONVECTION THAT MAY IGNITE ALONG THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL MN WILL FALL APART AS IT ENTERS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING. THIS IS DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THE
LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT AND THE MAIN DYNAMICS
WELL TO THE NORTH. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONGER STORM TRACKING ACROSS
TAYLOR COUNTY BEING CLOSER TO THE DYNAMICS...WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS
AND HAIL GIVEN THE INVERTED-V SOUNDING ENVIRONMENT. KEPT SOME 15-30
PERCENT CHANCES IN FOR THE EVENING...HIGHEST NORTHWEST. AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY CONDITIONS LOOK DRY AS SUBSIDENCE AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...PLUS A RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP CLOSE TO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 DEWPOINTS. PLENTY
OF SUN LOOKS TO BE ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY. 925MB TEMPS DEFINITELY
COOLER TOMORROW...18-20C AT 18Z...BUT THESE SHOULD STILL SUPPORT
HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S GIVEN A DRY AIRMASS...WARMEST
SOUTH. THAT DRY AIRMASS REFLECTED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPING TO
0.75 INCHES SHOULD ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO MIX PRETTY WELL AGAIN.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
A NUMBER OF FEATURES ARE COMING TOGETHER TO PRODUCE A HEAVY RAINFALL
EVENT THU AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WITH A SMALLER 100 MILE
BAND OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OUR GENERAL REGION BETWEEN
WISCONSIN HIGHWAY 29 AND U.S. HIGHWAY 20.
1. DPVA FROM SHORTWAVE DYNAMICS. VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS ON
BRINGING THE COLLECTIVE OF SHORTWAVES IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
THROUGH NEBRASKA AND KS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN INTO AND EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY.
2. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE. NOT ONLY DO THE SHORTWAVES BRING THE DEEPER
PACIFIC MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF BLANCA...FAIRLY
STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS TO
PROPEL GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE NORTHWARD. AS SUCH...OUR PRECIPITABLE
WATER CLIMBS DRAMATICALLY...REACHING 1.5 - 2 INCHES BY 00Z
FRIDAY...HIGHEST ACROSS THE ENTIRE STATE OF IA. THIS HIGH LEVEL OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER...OVER 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL...DOES NOT LEAVE THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFTER 18Z FRI.
3. RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION FROM AN 80-100 KT JET STREAK AT 200MB
HOVERING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
4. IMPRESSIVE FRONTOGENESIS BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 700MB
ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVES...ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW TRACK.
5. ADVECTION OF CAPE...ALBEIT LESS THAN 500 J/KG...INTO THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATION
6. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS UP AROUND 4000 METERS...WITH THE STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS CENTERED IN THE WARM CLOUD.
A VARIETY OF MODEL QPFS FROM THE GFS...NAM AND ECMWF SUGGESTS 1 TO 2
INCHES IS EASILY LIKELY...WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THAT
SMALLER BAND. WHERE THE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FALLS...FLOODING OF
RIVERS IS LIKELY...ALONG WITH URBAN AND POSSIBLY AREAL FLOODING.
HOWEVER...THAT LOCATION IS VERY HARD TO PIN DOWN WITH THE 09.00Z
CIPS ANALOGS AND ECMWF SUGGESTING NORTHERN IOWA...THE 09.12Z NAM
ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA TO I-90...THE 09.12Z ECMWF ALONG I-90 TO GREEN
BAY...AND THE 09.12Z CANADIAN/GFS JUST NORTH OF I-90.
A FLOOD WATCH HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE
DISAGREEMENT ON EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONTOGENESIS BAND SETS UP...AND
THE EVENT STILL BEING 48-72 HOURS OUT. HOWEVER...A WATCH WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED.
AS THE SHORTWAVES PULL OUT OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WE SHOULD SEE A DRIER PERIOD THANKS TO SUBSIDENCE AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. HAVE LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACCORDINGLY TO NOW DRY IN OUR NORTHWEST HALF. STILL MAINTAINED SOME
20 PERCENT CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF IN THE EVENT THE SHORTWAVES
PULL OUT SLOWER LIKE THE 09.12Z CANADIAN. AFTER SATURDAY AND THROUGH
NEXT TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES MOSTLY IN THE 30-50 PERCENT
RANGE LITTER THE FORECAST. THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE SOME DRY
PERIODS...BUT TIMING THAT LOOKS EXTREMELY PROBLEMATIC AS WE SIT IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST U.S..
THERE ARE SOME HINTS IN THE 09.00Z/12Z ECMWF OF ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE RIDGE AND IMPACTING THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE
TAME. GIVEN WHAT HAPPENS THU/FRI...WE DEFINITELY DO NOT THE ECMWF
RAIN. BEING UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL FLOW WITH OFF AND ON
PRECIPITATION...WE SHOULD HOVER NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS FOR HIGHS AND
LOWS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
A GENERALLY DRY...QUIET VFR PERIOD EXPECTED...EVEN WITH A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT. WARM...RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WITH A MDT
SOUTHWEST GRADIENT IS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WITH
THE FRONT IS ON THE LOWER SIDE AND MOST OF THE FORCING/LIFT WITH IT
LOOKS TO PASS NORTH/EAST OF THE TAF SITES TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO TRIGGER SCT SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AT 00Z THE
FRONT IS STILL WELL WEST/NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR A KDLH-KFSD LINE.
THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THRU KRST AROUND 06Z AND KLSE AROUND 08Z. BY
THAT TIME ANY SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF/ALONG IT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WEAKENING/DISSIPATING. ONLY CARRIED A VCSH AT KRST IN THE 03-06Z
TIMEFRAME. WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST FOR LATER TONIGHT/WED AS A WEAK
CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...AND
REMAIN MOSTLY 8-12KTS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015
A 100 MILE WIDE BAND OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...ON THE ORDER OF 3 TO
5 INCHES AND POSSIBLY HIGHER...IS LOOKING TO FALL SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
WISCONSIN HIGHWAY 29 AND U.S. HIGHWAY 20 IN OUR REGION BETWEEN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY MORNING. RIVER CONTINGENCY FORECASTS
USING THIS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL SUGGESTS GAUGES ON ANY RIVER EXCEPT
THE MISSISSIPPI COULD REACH MODERATE OR MAJOR STAGE. THE MISSISSIPPI
COULD CLIMB AT LEAST TO MINOR. AREAL AND URBAN FLOODING WOULD ALSO
BE POSSIBLE...AND LIKELY SHOULD THE BAND SET UP OVER LA CROSSE OR
AUSTIN. ITS WORTH NOTING THAT HALF OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RAINFALL
MAY FALL IN 3 HOURS ACCORDING TO HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL
GUIDANCE...SUGGESTING SOME FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL.
THE NEXT 2 DAYS WILL ALL BE ABOUT PINNING DOWN THE EXACT LOCATION OF
THE BAND OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION.....RRS
HYDROLOGY...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CHEYENNE WY
542 PM MDT WED JUN 10 2015
.UPDATE...FOR LATE AFTERNOON AVIATION FORECAST RELEASE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 PM MDT WED JUN 10 2015
OTHER THAN SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM CONVERSE COUNTY INTO THE
NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...IT HAS BEEN A RATHER QUIET AFTN SO
FAR. A SVR STORM DID MOVE THROUGH HARRISON AROUND 3 PM PRODUCING
QUARTER SIZED HAIL. THE LAPS SHOWS HIGHEST INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH CAPE VALUES OF 1250-1500 J/KG. INSTABILITY
IS LESS FROM PLATTE COUNTY INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS THIS AREA
HAS SEEN A LOT OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY. WITH RATHER SLOW
STORM MOTIONS AND HIGH PW VALUES THROUGH THE EVENING...CONTINUE TO
BELIEVE HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN...ALONG WITH SMALL
HAIL. WILL KEEP 50-60 POPS GOING IN CONVERSE/NIOBRARA COUNTIES
THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT WILL LIKELY
DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING AS PRECIP BECOMES MORE STRATIFORM.
THE 12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THURS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTN AS
THE PERIOD WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND HIGHEST QPF...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE IN SOUTHEAST WY. PW VALUES
ACROSS THE PLAINS ARE VERY HIGH AT 1.1-1.25 INCHES...STORM MOTION IS
LESS THAN 10 KTS...AND SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP SATURATED LAYER WITH
TALL AND SKINNY CAPE PROFILE. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT 700-300MB
FLOW IS FROM THE NORTH SUCH THAT STORMS INITIATING ALONG THE LARAMIE
RANGE COULD TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS. WITH THESE FACTORS...DECIDED
TO EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL ZONES ALONG AND EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE IN SOUTHEAST WY ALONG WITH BANNER/KIMBALL COUNTIES.
THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT SHOULD BE LESS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES
OF THE PANHANDLE. BY EARLY EVENING THE RAIN BECOME MORE CONFINED TO
AREAS NEAR INTERSTATE 80 IN SOUTHEAST WY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 PM MDT WED JUN 10 2015
WE CONTINUE WITH HIGH POPS FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERERD
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN THURSDAY EVENING FROM LARAMIE EAST
THROUGH CHEYENNE AND KIMBALL (WHERE GFS/NAM ARE PINNING HIGHER
QPF VALUES THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY)...AND THIS IS WHERE WE EXTENDED THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO COVER THROUGH MIDNIGHT FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE...DEEP LAYERED DRYING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL WORK
SOUTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OUR AREA FRIDAY WITH SOME LINGERING POPS
FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE COLORADO BORDER AS WE SEE SOME RETURN
MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE. THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST WE RETURN TO A MORE
TYPICAL PATTERN OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 539 PM MDT WED JUN 10 2015
MOST OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF DOUGLAS
WYOMING IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...BUT THE HRRR MODEL (WHICH
INITIALIZED VERY WELL ON THE 20Z RUN) SHOWS NEW DEVELOPMENT ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE COMPLEX OF STORMS AROUND DOUGLAS AND TRACKS THAT
ACTIVITY EAST INTO THE SCOTTSBLUFF...CHADRON AND ALLIANCE AREAS
LATE THIS EVENING. WE BROUGHT THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THOSE AREAS
LATE THIS EVENING WITH MOST OTHER SITES VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD WITH A SMALLER THREAT OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. BEST
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING THE AVIATION SERVICE AREA WILL
BE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW DRAWS CLOSER TO THE
SOUTHWEST.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 421 PM MDT WED JUN 10 2015
A WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE REGION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. A DRIER AND MORE TYPICAL
WEATHER PATTERN WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 421 PM MDT WED JUN 10 2015
WE CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN 2/3RDS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA GIVEN DEEP TROPICAL AIRMASS WORKING ACROSS
WITH THE PASSING UPPER TROUGH THAT WON`T DEPART TO THE EAST UNTIL
FRIDAY. MANY SMALL STREAMS AND SOME LARGER MAINSTEM RIVER SYSTEMS
AT BANKFULL. FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WE EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH SOUTHWARD TO THE COLORADO BORDER FROM JUST WEST OF LARAMIE
TO JUST EAST OF KIMBALL AND EXTENDED IT FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS
UNTIL 06Z FRI. FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS MAY NEED TO BE MADE IN
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS AS WE SEE WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINS LOOK TO
SETUP.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR WYZ101-102.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR WYZ106-115>119.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR WYZ107-108.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR WYZ103.
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR NEZ002-003-095-
096.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR NEZ020-054.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NEZ019.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...JG
HYDROLOGY...ZF/JG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
948 PM PDT WED JUN 10 2015
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE AREA CIRCULATING OVER EASTERN CENTRAL CALIFORNIA IS
STILL WRAPPING AROUND MOISTURE INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ALONG THE CREST PRODUCING LOCAL HEAVY
RAINFALL. MOST OF THE POTENTIAL ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT LOOKS TO BE
SOUTH OF I-80 PER THE HRRR MODEL BUT RECENT THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING NEAR SUSANVILLE MIGHT TAKE SOME SHOWERS FURTHER NORTH
TO AROUND QUINCY. HAVE INCREASE POPS OVERNIGHT MAINLY FOR AREAS
IN THE MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF I-80 AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE LOW SHOULD MOVE OVERNIGHT TO AROUND LAS
VEGAS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN DRYING CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT FOR
THE SIERRA NEVADA.
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO UTAH AND
COLORADO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING BEHIND THE LOW WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND QUICKLY
BACK INTO THE 90S. THIS IS WHAT YOU WOULD EXPECT IN THE
TRANSITION SEASON WHEN A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION.
BY FRIDAY THE HEAT WILL BE ON AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE
CONTINUING. TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEY 100 TO 105 FOR MOST
LOCATIONS BUT THE NORTHERN END OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY MAY TOP
OUT BETWEEN 105 AND 110. SATURDAY THE WINDS WILL REVERSE ITSELF
AS A TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST HELPS TO BREAKDOWN THE
RIDGE A LITTLE. BY SATURDAY EVENING A DECENT DELTA BREEZE WILL
HELP TO COOL PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AS WELL.
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BRING A FAIRLY TYPICAL QUIET WEATHER
PATTERN FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH DRY WEATHER AND SUNNY SKIES,
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. DRY SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT SETS UP WITH A GENERAL TROUGH OVER THE AREA. BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT TIMES WITH DELTA BREEZE KEEPING INFLUENCED
AREAS COOL AT NIGHT. EK
&&
.AVIATION...
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
GENERAL VFR ESLEWHERE WITH LIGHT SPRINKLES RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AS
OF 03Z. A FEW LINGERING HIGH MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AFTER 03Z. MAINLY
DRY WEATHER THURSDAY, EXCEPT A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE CREST SOUTH OF AMADOR COUNTY.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
355 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...
AN U/L TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WITH A
STRONG U/L RIDGE EAST OF FLORIDA. THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL GRADUALLY
RETROGRADE WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...HOWEVER DEEP SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION. LOWER
CONFIDENCE THAN NORMAL IN THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST AS MODELS
INDICATE DRYING ALOFT TODAY COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH...WHICH IS NOT
SUPPORTED BY W/V IMAGERY OR SOUNDING DATA. DRIER AIR IS ADVECTING
DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE U/L TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...BUT DON`T BELIEVE THIS WILL RAP AROUND TO THE EAST SIDE
OF THE TROUGH. HOW MUCH DRYING ALOFT WILL OCCUR DUE TO THE
APPROACHING U/L RIDGE AND WHEN DOES THE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT START TO
TAKE HOLD IS THE QUESTION. GIVEN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION AND ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZING ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA ATTM...WILL KEEP POPS ON THE HIGH SIDE WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY. TOUGH CALL ON A FLOOD WATCH AS ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS DUE TO HEAVY RAIN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS OVER PORTIONS
OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA SUPPORT A FLOOD WATCH FOR A FEW COUNTIES.
STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD CREATE FASTER STORM MOVEMENT
TODAY WHICH WILL DECREASE THREAT FOR HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS. ALTHOUGH
LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS...GIVEN LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL FORECAST WILL NOT ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR
TODAY.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN DUE TO STRATIFIED CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL TEMPORARILY STABILIZE
THE ATMOSPHERE IN THAT REGION...WITH THE LARGE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN
GRADUALLY SHRINKING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. SHOULD SEE
SEVERAL HOURS BREAK IN ACTIVITY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ATMOSPHERE
GRADUALLY DESTABILIZING AGAIN WITH DAYTIME HEATING. NATURE COAST
HAS BEEN RAIN FREE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH ATMOSPHERE IN THAT
REGION ALREADY DESTABILIZING...AND WILL BE THE INITIAL FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND MOVING
ONSHORE.
NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES EXIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO EARLIER
AND ONGOING CONVECTION WHICH WILL HELP INITIATE ADDITIONAL STORMS
THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER
THE FORECAST AREA WILL AGAIN BRING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING. MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW
GUIDANCE DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
AS THE U/L RIDGE EDGES WEST OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FRIDAY...IT
WILL HAVE GREATER INFLUENCE ON OUR REGION. INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
WILL BEGIN DECREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL HOLD THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
NEAR THE COAST AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WILL ALSO
ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK ABOVE CLIMATIC NORMALS.
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...
STRONG MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND. AT THE
SURFACE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE POSITIONED GENERALLY
NORTH OF THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK...KEEPING A
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE MID/UPPER RIDGE
WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
STRENGTHEN...WHICH WILL HELP TO INCREASE HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT
INTO NEXT WEEK. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP THE BEST LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST EACH AFTERNOON...WITH
ACTIVITY THEN MOVING OFFSHORE IN THE EVENING. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
A BIT LOWER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD AND THERE IS INCREASED SUPPRESSION IN THE
ATMOSPHERE...BUT ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE PRESENT FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH OF THOSE AFTERNOONS.
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
WILL CREATE AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH VFR CIGS DEVELOPING LATE THIS
MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON 035-045.
&&
.MARINE...
MAIN HAZARD WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...MORE
NUMEROUS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND ROUGH SEAS. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL REMAIN
LESS THAN 15 WITH SEAS LESS THAN 4 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 87 75 91 77 / 60 30 50 20
FMY 88 73 91 75 / 60 30 50 20
GIF 88 73 92 74 / 60 30 40 10
SRQ 87 74 88 76 / 60 30 50 20
BKV 88 70 91 73 / 70 30 50 10
SPG 87 76 90 78 / 60 30 50 20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
LONG TERM...05/CARLISLE
DECISION SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
350 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...
AN U/L TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WITH A
STRONG U/L RIDGE EAST OF FLORIDA. THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL GRADUALLY
RETROGRADE WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...HOWEVER DEEP SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION. LOWER
CONFIDENCE THAN NORMAL IN THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST AS MODELS
INDICATE DRYING ALOFT TODAY COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH...WHICH IS NOT
SUPPORTED BY W/V IMAGERY OR SOUNDING DATA. DRIER AIR IS ADVECTING
DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE U/L TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...BUT DON`T BELIEVE THIS WILL RAP AROUND TO THE EAST SIDE
OF THE TROUGH. HOW MUCH DRYING ALOFT WILL OCCUR DUE TO THE
APPROACHING U/L RIDGE AND WHEN DOES THE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT START TO
TAKE HOLD IS THE QUESTION. GIVEN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION AND ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZING ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA ATTM...WILL KEEP POPS ON THE HIGH SIDE WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY. TOUGH CALL ON A FLOOD WATCH AS ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS DUE TO HEAVY RAIN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS OVER PORTIONS
OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA SUPPORT A FLOOD WATCH FOR A FEW COUNTIES.
STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD CREATE FASTER STORM MOVEMENT
TODAY WHICH WILL DECREASE THREAT FOR HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS. ALTHOUGH
LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS...GIVEN LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL FORECAST WILL NOT ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR
TODAY.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN DUE TO STRATIFIED CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL TEMPORARILY STABILIZE
THE ATMOSPHERE IN THAT REGION...WITH THE LARGE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN
GRADUALLY SHRINKING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. SHOULD SEE
SEVERAL HOURS BREAK IN ACTIVITY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ATMOSPHERE
GRADUALLY DESTABILIZING AGAIN WITH DAYTIME HEATING. NATURE COAST
HAS BEEN RAIN FREE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH ATMOSPHERE IN THAT
REGION ALREADY DESTABILIZING...AND WILL BE THE INITIAL FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND MOVING
ONSHORE.
NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES EXIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO EARLIER
AND ONGOING CONVECTION WHICH WILL HELP INITIATE ADDITIONAL STORMS
THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER
THE FORECAST AREA WILL AGAIN BRING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING. MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW
GUIDANCE DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
AS THE U/L RIDGE EDGES WEST OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FRIDAY...IT
WILL HAVE GREATER INFLUENCE ON OUR REGION. INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
WILL BEGIN DECREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL HOLD THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
NEAR THE COAST AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WILL ALSO
ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK ABOVE CLIMATIC NORMALS.
.LONG TERM...
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
WILL CREATE AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH VFR CIGS DEVELOPING LATE THIS
MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON 035-045.
&&
.MARINE...
MAIN HAZARD WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...MORE
NUMEROUS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND ROUGH SEAS. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL REMAIN
LESS THAN 15 WITH SEAS LESS THAN 4 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 87 75 91 77 / 60 30 50 20
FMY 88 73 91 75 / 60 30 50 20
GIF 88 73 92 74 / 60 30 40 10
SRQ 87 74 88 76 / 60 30 50 20
BKV 88 70 91 73 / 70 30 50 10
SPG 87 76 90 78 / 60 30 50 20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
LONG TERM...05/CARLISLE
DECISION SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
156 AM MDT THU JUN 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR ALL OF
THE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO WILL KEEP MOVING
SLOWLY TOWARD COLORADO AND THE FOUR CORNERS. MOST OF THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
HIGHLANDS. THE MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING SOMEWHAT ON STORM
COVERAGE. THE NAM IS THE SKIMPIEST WITH DEVELOPMENT CONFINED TO
AROUND BEAR LAKE. THE OTHER MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR ARE A LITTLE
MORE GENEROUS BUT A FOCUS AROUND BEAR LAKE. ACTIVITY AROUND THERE
STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL
HAIL...BUT THE THREAT IS QUITE A BIT LOWER THAN RECENT DAYS. IT
ALSO LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE A FEW STRAY SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND
HAILEY. IT LOOKS LIKE THE WIND WILL BE OUT A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION...5-15 MPH WITH SOME POCKETS CLOSER TO 20 MPH. IT`S NOT
A LOT BUT ENOUGH FOR IMPACTS ON AMERICAN FALLS RESERVOIR...WHICH
IS WHERE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BY MIDNIGHT...WE SHOULD BR DRY EVEN IN THE SOUTHEAST
CORNER. ANOTHER MILD DAY IS ON TAP FOR US...70S AND 80S EXCEPT FOR
WHERE CLOUDS MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES BACK ABOUT 10 DEGREES. KEYES
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. WE WILL SETTLE INTO A
MORE WESTERLY/PACIFIC FLOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE STORM
TRACK WILL REMAIN NORTH OF US...BUT HOW FAR NORTH REMAINS AN
ISSUE. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THROUGH THE WEEKEND THAT A FEW STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE DIVIDE...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY
NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER. IT THE STORM ACROSS CANADA ENDS UP
FARTHER NORTH...WE MAY NOT SEE ANYTHING EVEN NEAR ISLAND PARK AND
MONIDA PASS. THERE IS EVEN MORE DISAGREEMENT NEXT WEEK WITH
ANOTHER STORM FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHERN CANADA. THE GFS SWINGS IT
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT JUST
OFFSHORE OF VANCOUVER ISLAND. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THOUGH WE SHOULD
SEE AN UPTICK IN MOISTURE...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SHOWERS AND
STORMS BUT NOTHING WE`VE SEEN RECENTLY. WE DID MAINTAIN THAT
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTH BUT STARTING TRIMMING THINGS BACK
FARTHER SOUTH AFTER MONDAY. WE SHOULD SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES...REMAINING AT OR JUST ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
MID JUNE. KEYES
&&
.AVIATION...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH UTAH TODAY. THIS
WILL PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST IDAHO.
MOST TAF SITES WILL BE UNAFFECTED. ANY CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR.
VALLE
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH UTAH TODAY.
THIS WILL PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST IDAHO.
A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT
MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
VALLE
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
IDZ021.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1206 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015
HAVE ALREADY UPDATED ONCE. STORMS ONGOING IN NORTHERN PART OF THE
CWA AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THE REST OF THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY
INTO OVERNIGHT. WILL TRY TO UPDATE SHORTLY TO FRESHEN GRIDS AND
WORDING FOR REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015
COLD FRONT SLOWLY EDGING TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN
A MUGGY AIRMASS. LAPS DATA SHOWING 4000-5000 J/KG AVAILABLE ENERGY
BUT SO FAR, CONVECTION HAS NOT YET STARTED. HOWEVER, CONVECTION IS
ANTICIPATED ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT SAGS INTO ILX NORTHERN TIER.
ADVANCEMENT OF THE FRONT IN THE OVERNIGHT IS LIMITED WITH STRONG WAA
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED TO
REMAIN IN THE NORTHERN TIER AT LEAST IN THE IMMEDIATE TERM. CAPE
WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT ONCE THE SUN SETS AND THE DIURNAL INFLUENCE
IS LOST. THAT BEING SAID, STILL ENOUGH OF A HUMID AND HOT AIRMASS
TO PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
NORTH OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY HAVANA TO DANVILLE. EVEN WITH PWS IN
EXCESS OF 1.5-2"...THE HRRR AND RAP/RUC IS SOMEWHAT LIMITING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THAT BEING SAID, THE
NORTHERN TIER OF ILX IS STILL IN A SLIGHT RISK THROUGH THE
EVENING...AND WITH AMPLE CAPE, EVEN WITHOUT A LOT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR, STORMS CAN EASILY DEVELOP SOME GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015
THE 12Z MODELS SHOW THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING NORTHWARD IN THE
MORNING, IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE WILL CREATE A HOT AND
HUMID DAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SE IL. STORM CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO
THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT NORTHWARD, SO AREAS NORTH OF A LINE FROM
RUSHVILLE TO LINCOLN TO BLOOMINGTON WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCES.
SPC INCREASED OUR SEVERE POTENTIAL FROM MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK IN
THAT GENERAL AREA, WITH ELEVATED CAPES OF 2-2500 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR
OF 20-25KTS PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. SO DOWNBURST WINDS AND HAIL WILL
BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FOR THURS AFTN/EVE.
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW IN EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL SLIDE EAST
ACROSS IOWA. A BREAK IN THE STORMS APPEARS LIKELY, UNTIL AROUND
SUNRISE ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW REACHES CLOSE TO NW IL. STORM CHANCES
WILL EXPAND TO THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY...AS THE LOW PASSES TO OUR
NORTH AND IT DRAGS A COLD FRONT INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE
FRONT WILL TRIGGER STORMS, SOME POSSIBLE SEVERE WITH HAIL AND WIND.
SPC HAS US IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. WE FOLLOWED
THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA WITH
LIKELY POPS, FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ALL SHOW THE COLD FRONT STALLING OUT ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON SATURDAY...KEEPING THE FOCUS FOR STORMS
SOUTH OF PEORIA TO BLOOMINGTON. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
HELP LOWER HIGH TEMPS NORTH OF THE FRONT INTO THE LOWER 80S, BUT
HUMIDITY WILL NOT IMPROVE MUCH AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN MID TO UPPER 60S.
THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, WITH
STORM CHANCES INCREASING TO LIKELY ON SUNDAY WEST OF A LINE FROM
EFFINGHAM TO DANVILLE...AS A COUPLE OF STRONG SHORTWAVES TRIGGER
PERIODIC STORMS. LIKELY CHANCES OF RAIN LINGER NORTH OF PEORIA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE PLAINS INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. MORE LIKELY POPS APPEAR EVIDENT IN THE EXTENDED
MODELS FOR TUESDAY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES FROM KANSAS INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
ONE MAIN THEME THROUGHOUT THE 7 DAY FORECAST IS HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT IN THE AIRMASS, AND INSTABILITY EVERYDAY. SHEAR PARAMETERS
GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 25KTS, WHICH LENDS TOWARD SLOW MOVING
STORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. FLASH FLOODING
COULD BECOME A REAL CONCERN IN AREAS THAT SEE REPEATED STORM TRACKS
OVER THE NEXT WEEK. RAINFALL RATES OVER SHORT PERIODS OF TIME COULD
EASILY CLIMB AS HIGH AS 3 INCHES PER HOUR...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES REPEATEDLY CLIMB TOWARD 2 INCHES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER WEST CENTRAL IL WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER WILL AFFECT KPIA-KBMI-KSPI OVER FIRST FEW
HOURS OF TAF PERIOD WITH IFR-MVFR VSBYS AND MVFR CIGS LIKELY.
OUTFLOW WINDS FROM THIS COMPLEX WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO N/NW AS
WELL FOR FIRST FEW HOURS AS WELL...THEN WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION BACK TO A SSW DIRECTION BY MORNING AND CONTINUE...8-15
KTS...THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY. PERIODS OF MORNING FOG LIKELY TO
DEVELOP AT KPIA-KBMI AS WELL FROM 09-12Z AND HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO
GROUP FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN THIS PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR
A PERIOD FROM 12Z-24Z BEFORE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE FROM
THE WEST. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS FOR TOMORROW EVENING AS TIMING AND
ESTIMATES ON CIG/VSBY CONDITIONS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AUTEN
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...SHIMON
AVIATION...ONTON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1248 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015
COLD FRONT WAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND CONTINUED TO MOVE SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD. AT 3 PM IN OUR NORTHERN CWA TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE
MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S IN OUR FAR NW CWA. SOUTH
OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES WERE IN THE MID 90S TO 100
IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA.
THE HI-RES HRRR MODEL FIRES UP THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. SBCAPES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MORE THAN 5000 J/KG BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS VERY
WEAK. BUFKIT SHOWS THE CIN DIMINISHING BY MID AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE TO OVER 1.8 INCHES. THESE PARAMETERS
SUGGEST THE STRONGER STORMS WOULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
TORRENTIAL RAINS. WITH FREEZING LEVELS AT 13K THE THREAT OF LARGE
HAIL IS LOW. THE NAM FIRES UP THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING SO IS
LATER THAN THE HRRR BUT FOR NOW THE FORECAST HINGES ON THE MESO
MODEL. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015
FORECAST FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
TONIGHT...FRONT WILL STALL IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA THIS EVENING AS IT
RUNS INTO RIDGING ALOFT THAT EXTENDS FROM TX TO MO. AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT THIS FRONT WILL BEGIN
LIFTING SLOWLY BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD
WITH THE FRONT AND ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ALSO INCREASES OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
AND HEAVY RAINFALL. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
60S NORTH TO AROUND 70 SOUTH.
THURSDAY...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT INCREASES AS A SURFACE
CYCLONE TRACKS INTO WESTERN IA BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE WARM
FRONT LIFTING INTO OUR NORTHERN CWA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR BECOMES
STRONG (50 KT) DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SBCAPES INCREASE TO
2500-3000 J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY ESPECIALLY IN OUR
NORTH CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT...AND THEN SPREADING INTO OUR
WESTERN CWA AS THE STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR LIKELY BUT THE MAIN TORNADO THREAT AT THIS
TIME LOOKS TO BE TO OUR WEST CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW AND TRIPLE
POINT. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS OVER OUR ENTIRE CWA.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S ALONG HIGHWAY
20 TO NEAR 90 IN OUR FAR SOUTH. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S IN OUR FAR SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE ACTIVE
PATTERN AND ROUND OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH
THE PATTERN HAS SHIFTED NORTH INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THE LONG TERM AT
LEAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EVERY DAY FOR THE
EXCEPTION OF FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WITH FORECAST QPF AMOUNTS
WE MAY START TO SEE SOME HYDRO IMPACTS ON OUR WATERWAYS.
THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH A SFC CYCLONE PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN CWA. WARM FRONT
SHOULD BE JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. 1000-700 AND H85 MOIST TRANS VECS
PEG AREAS ACROSS SOUTHERN MN INTO CENTRAL WI. THIS AREA WILL BE THE
AREA FOR THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER WITH THE CAPE
ACROSS OUR AREA ALONG WITH HIGH PWATS OF CLOSE TO 2 INCHES...
SUGGESTS THAT HEAVY RAIN COULD FALL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT. AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD
THREAT COULD EXIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA THURSDAY EVENING INTO
FRIDAY AM.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTERS IDEAS ON THE
SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE AREA QUICKLY FRIDAY DURING THE DAY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A DRY FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO NORMAL THEN THE FLOW TURNS ZONAL AND EVEN SW. A SERIES OF
WAVES WILL LEAD TO THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. AS WE
GET CLOSER TO EACH OF EVENTS...THE MESOSCALE FEATURES WILL BECOME
BETTER FORECAST AND DETAILS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST INTO EARLY THU MORNING.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL INCREASE AT KDBQ AND KCID THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTN/EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL WAA
CONTINUES TO INCREASE. PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR ARE LIKELY AT KDBQ AND
KCID...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE AFTN/EVENING WHERE A SFC
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED. VERY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
ERRATIC WIND GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM ANY STORMS THAT FORM.
STORM COVERAGE BECOMES PROGRESSIVELY MORE SCT/ISOLATED TO THE
SOUTH OF A KCID-TO-KDBQ LINE THROUGH THE THE AFTN. THEREFORE...AT
KMLI...THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS IS AFTER 02Z-03Z/FRI.
UTTECH
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015
WITH WPC FORECAST OF CLOSE TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN TO OUR NORTH...IT
LOOKS AS THOUGH WE MAY SEE SOME FLOODING ISSUES ON OUR RIVERS AS THE
THE WATER IS ROUTED INTO OUR AREA. CONTINGENCY FORECASTS SUGGEST
THAT SOME OF THE SITES COULD REACH FLOOD STAGE IF THE CURRENT
FORECAST HOLDS TRUE. AS A RESULT...CUSTOMERS WITH INTERESTS AROUND
THE RIVERS SHOULD PAY ATTENTION FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING IN THE NEXT
FEW DAYS TO WEEK.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...UTTECH
HYDROLOGY...GIBBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
514 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 504 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015
HEAVY RAIN AND NEED FOR HEADLINES TONIGHT IS MAIN CONCERN. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES SLIDES EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. SFC
LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS THIS MORNING LIFTS ACROSS WI TONIGHT
AND OVER LOWER MICHIGAN BY FRIDAY MORNING. WARM FRONT...ESPECIALLY
ALOFT...COMES CLOSE TO SOUTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT BUT REALLY NEVER MAKES IT INTO THE CWA. THINK THIS STALLED
OUT WARM FRONT ALOFT WILL HOLD KEY IN HEAVIEST RAIN STAYING ONLY
OVER SOUTHERN MENOMINEE COUNTY OR EVEN JUST TO THE SOUTH.
EXPECT LARGE SCALE LIFT TO SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA AS EARLY AS
THIS AFTN AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE SPREAD NORTHEAST FM THE PLAINS. ALREADY SEEING EXPANDING
SHIELD OF RAIN OVER SOUTHWEST MN AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS OVER
SOUTHERN THIRD OF MN. HRRR/RAP/NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS THIS AFTN INDICATE
THICKENING MID CLOUDS /H7-H5/ WITH DECENT LIFT IN THAT MOIST LAYER.
DRY LOW-LEVELS WILL HOLD OFF LIGHT RAIN FOR THE NORTH CWA...BUT
PERSISTENT LIFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST LIGHT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTN INTO SOUTHERN CWA AS SHOWN BY LATEST HRRR AND RAP MODELS.
BOOSTED SKY COVER AND BROUGHT SCT SHRA OVER MUCH OF SOUTH HALF OF
CWA AND EVEN SLIGHT CHANCES TO THE NORTH. KEWEENAW SHOULD STAY DRY
ALL DAY...AND PERHAPS ALL THE WAY THROUGH DURATION OF THE SYSTEM
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MOISTURE TRANSPORT RAMPS UP CONSIDERABLY AHEAD
OF MAIN SHORTWAVE ARRIVAL BUT THINK MAJORITY OF THE STRONGEST
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL STAY ALONG THE WARM FRONT ALOFT AT H85-H7.
LACK OF INSTABILITY ALOFT MAY ALSO ACT TO SHUNT HEAVIER RAIN TO THE
SOUTH AS WELL. MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAGNITUDE IS VERY IMPRESSIVE
THOUGH AND BELIEVE THERE IS OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTH OF ADVECTION TO
NUDGE THE WARM FRONT ALOFT AND MAX WARM AIR ADVECTION ALONG THE
BOUNDARY NORTH ENOUGH TO BRING HEAVIER QPF INTO AT LEAST MENOMINEE
COUNTY. THIS WOULD OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE SFC-H85 LOW
AND ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF SFC LOW OVER
WISCONSIN.
00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM-REGIONAL AND HIGHER RES GUIDANCE FM THE NSSL
WRF AND MORE THAN HALF OF THE NCAR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS POINT TO THAT
IDEA WITH HEAVIEST QPF AFTER 06Z AND PROBABLY AFT 09Z AND ONLY
LASTING TIL AROUND 12Z. GFS REALLY HAS TRENDED THIS WAY WITH ITS
LAST FEW RUNS. ON THE FLIP SIDE WOULD BE THE NCEP HIGH RES
GUIDANCE...KEEPING MAJORITY OF HEAVIER QPF JUST SOUTH OF MENOMINEE
COUNTY AND THE 06Z NAM REALLY TRENDING TOWARD LESS QPF OVER ALL BUT
FAR SOUTHERN MENONINEE COUNTY. ALL THAT SAID...MODEL TRENDS WITH
NORTH TO SOUTH EXTENT OF LIGHTER RAIN AND ALSO STRIPE OF HEAVIER
RAIN HAVE BEEN DIZZYING OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. CASE IN POINT IS THE
DPROG/DT OF THE RUN TOTAL QPF FM THE NAM ENDING AT 15Z ON FRIDAY.
18Z RUN ON 10 JUNE SHOWED OVER 2 INCHES AS FAR NW AT CRYSTAL FALLS
AND IRON MOUNTAIN...BUT NOW SHOWS BARELY ANY QPF AT CRYSTAL FALLS
WITH THIS 06Z RUN. GEM FOR LONGEST TIME WAS MAINLY SOUTH OF
MENOMINEE COUNTY WITH HEAVIER QPF...BUT JUST WITH 00Z RUN SHIFTED
FARTHER NORTH. ECMWF AND GFS HAVE BEEN MORE OR LESS PEGGING
NORTHEAST WI INTO SOUTH CENTRAL UPR MICHIGAN FOR HEAVIER STRIPE OF
QPF SINCE 12Z/9 JUNE RUN WITH MAIN CHANGES TYING TO HOW FAR NORTH
TO SPREAD LIGHTER QPF.
HAVE ISSUED A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK STATEMENT /ESFMQT/ FOR MENOMINEE
COUNTY TO ADDRESS THE HEAVY RAIN AND ASSOCIATED UNCERTAINTY. ALSO
HIGHLIGHTED POTENTIAL FLOODING THAT COULD OCCUR IF THE HEAVIER RAIN
SCENARIO ENDS UP VERIFYING. IN THAT CASE...PROBABLY LOOKING AT AT
LEAST 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN 3 HOURS...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE RFC FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE FOR MENONIMEE COUNTY. NEED AT LEAST 50 PERCENT
CONFIDENCE TO DO A WATCH...BUT GIVEN THE BACK AND FORTH TRENDS AND
AN OVERALL TREND TO BE MORE SUPRESSED WITH THE HEAVIEST QPF OFF THE
LATEST GUIANCE...WENT ESF ROUTE FOR NOW. ONE POSSIBLE KEY FOR THE
FORECAST MAY BE HOW MUCH RAIN OCCURS OVER SOUTHERN MN THROUGH 18Z
TODAY. SEEMS THAT IF THAT THERE HEAVIER RAIN VERIFIES THERE...
PROBABLY A BETTER SHOT OF SEEING HEAVY QPF OVER SCNTRL CWA TONIGHT.
BUT...THAT IS LOOKING AT THINGS IN A LINEAR FASHION WHICH AT TIMES
CAN BE EASY TO DO IN THIS PROFESSION...BUT NOT ALWAYS THE PROPER
COURSE OF ACTION. HOPEFULLY DAYSHIFT CAN GET SOME TRENDS TO BETTER
SEE IF HEAVY RAIN WILL IMPACT SCNTRL CWA OR WILL IT MISS CWA TO THE
SOUTH. DESPITE BEING WITHIN 24 HOURS NOW FM POSSIBLE HEAVY
RAIN...ESF ALLOWS FOR WIGGLE ROOM TO EITHER STEP INTO A WATCH OR
ADVISORY OR GO WITH NOTHING IF HEAVY RAIN AXIS SLIDES TO THE SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 513 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015
FRIDAY...EXPECT THE RAIN...MAINLY OVER THE SE HALF OF THE CWA...TO
END DURING THE MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
DYNAMICS MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THE FCST MAINTAINS CONTINUITY BY
FAVORING THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER NAM/REGIONAL-GEM/ECMWF COMPARED TO THE
FASTER GFS IN TIMING THE END OF THE PCPN. EXPECT SOME CLEARING LATER
INTO THE AFTERNOON CENTRAL AND EAST WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. INLAND TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT CLOUDS AND NE WINDS OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR
WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S NORTH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
FRI NIGHT AND SAT...SFC AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA. WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S. MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES SATURDAY WILL PUSH TEMPS TO AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S INLAND. LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL ALLOW
LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP KEEPING READINGS IN THE 60S ALONG THE LAKES.
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...A BROAD TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE NW CONUS
WITH RIDGING OVER THE SE WILL RESULT IN SW FLOW FROM THE PLAINS
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS SUGGEST A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING
FROM THE SRN PLAINS COULD SPREAD SHRA AND POSSIBLY A FEW TSRA INTO
THE WRN LAKES. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING/POSITION OF ANY
HEAVIER PCPN IS LIMITED...WITH PWATS CLIMBING AOA 1.5 INCH SOME
AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE.
MON-WED...AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS INTO NRN ONTARIO AND THE
MAIN SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE LAKES...EXPECT MAINLY
DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE EVEN IF ANY
WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA IN DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW. BY
WED...SHOWER CHANCES MAY INCREASE AS THE GFS/GEFS/ECMWF SUGGEST A
MID LEVEL AND SFC TROUGH WILL APPROACH OR MOVE INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAIN TO MOVE INTO KSAW AND POSSIBLY KIWD RIGHT
AROUND THE END OF THE 06Z TAF TIME...BUT LEFT THAT OUT OF THE
FORECAST GIVEN MODEL VARIABILITY AND LIMITED CONFIDENCE ON EXACT
TIMING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 504 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. LOW OVER THE PLAINS
WILL EJECT ACROSS SOUTHERN WI AND LOWER MI ON FRIDAY...BUT WINDS
WILL ONLY BRIEFLY INCREASE /STILL LESS THAN 25KTS/. HIGH PRESSURE
FILLS BACK IN AFTER THE LOW EXITS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATER
FRIDAY AND THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
505 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 504 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015
HEAVY RAIN AND NEED FOR HEADLINES TONIGHT IS MAIN CONCERN. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES SLIDES EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. SFC
LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS THIS MORNING LIFTS ACROSS WI TONIGHT
AND OVER LOWER MICHIGAN BY FRIDAY MORNING. WARM FRONT...ESPECIALLY
ALOFT...COMES CLOSE TO SOUTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT BUT REALLY NEVER MAKES IT INTO THE CWA. THINK THIS STALLED
OUT WARM FRONT ALOFT WILL HOLD KEY IN HEAVIEST RAIN STAYING ONLY
OVER SOUTHERN MENOMINEE COUNTY OR EVEN JUST TO THE SOUTH.
EXPECT LARGE SCALE LIFT TO SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA AS EARLY AS
THIS AFTN AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE SPREAD NORTHEAST FM THE PLAINS. ALREADY SEEING EXPANDING
SHIELD OF RAIN OVER SOUTHWEST MN AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS OVER
SOUTHERN THIRD OF MN. HRRR/RAP/NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS THIS AFTN INDICATE
THICKENING MID CLOUDS /H7-H5/ WITH DECENT LIFT IN THAT MOIST LAYER.
DRY LOW-LEVELS WILL HOLD OFF LIGHT RAIN FOR THE NORTH CWA...BUT
PERSISTENT LIFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST LIGHT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTN INTO SOUTHERN CWA AS SHOWN BY LATEST HRRR AND RAP MODELS.
BOOSTED SKY COVER AND BROUGHT SCT SHRA OVER MUCH OF SOUTH HALF OF
CWA AND EVEN SLIGHT CHANCES TO THE NORTH. KEWEENAW SHOULD STAY DRY
ALL DAY...AND PERHAPS ALL THE WAY THROUGH DURATION OF THE SYSTEM
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MOISTURE TRANSPORT RAMPS UP CONSIDERABLY AHEAD
OF MAIN SHORTWAVE ARRIVAL BUT THINK MAJORITY OF THE STRONGEST
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL STAY ALONG THE WARM FRONT ALOFT AT H85-H7.
LACK OF INSTABILITY ALOFT MAY ALSO ACT TO SHUNT HEAVIER RAIN TO THE
SOUTH AS WELL. MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAGNITUDE IS VERY IMPRESSIVE
THOUGH AND BELIEVE THERE IS OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTH OF ADVECTION TO
NUDGE THE WARM FRONT ALOFT AND MAX WARM AIR ADVECTION ALONG THE
BOUNDARY NORTH ENOUGH TO BRING HEAVIER QPF INTO AT LEAST MENOMINEE
COUNTY. THIS WOULD OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE SFC-H85 LOW
AND ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF SFC LOW OVER
WISCONSIN.
00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM-REGIONAL AND HIGHER RES GUIDANCE FM THE NSSL
WRF AND MORE THAN HALF OF THE NCAR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS POINT TO THAT
IDEA WITH HEAVIEST QPF AFTER 06Z AND PROBABLY AFT 09Z AND ONLY
LASTING TIL AROUND 12Z. GFS REALLY HAS TRENDED THIS WAY WITH ITS
LAST FEW RUNS. ON THE FLIP SIDE WOULD BE THE NCEP HIGH RES
GUIDANCE...KEEPING MAJORITY OF HEAVIER QPF JUST SOUTH OF MENOMINEE
COUNTY AND THE 06Z NAM REALLY TRENDING TOWARD LESS QPF OVER ALL BUT
FAR SOUTHERN MENONINEE COUNTY. ALL THAT SAID...MODEL TRENDS WITH
NORTH TO SOUTH EXTENT OF LIGHTER RAIN AND ALSO STRIPE OF HEAVIER
RAIN HAVE BEEN DIZZYING OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. CASE IN POINT IS THE
DPROG/DT OF THE RUN TOTAL QPF FM THE NAM ENDING AT 15Z ON FRIDAY.
18Z RUN ON 10 JUNE SHOWED OVER 2 INCHES AS FAR NW AT CRYSTAL FALLS
AND IRON MOUNTAIN...BUT NOW SHOWS BARELY ANY QPF AT CRYSTAL FALLS
WITH THIS 06Z RUN. GEM FOR LONGEST TIME WAS MAINLY SOUTH OF
MENOMINEE COUNTY WITH HEAVIER QPF...BUT JUST WITH 00Z RUN SHIFTED
FARTHER NORTH. ECMWF AND GFS HAVE BEEN MORE OR LESS PEGGING
NORTHEAST WI INTO SOUTH CENTRAL UPR MICHIGAN FOR HEAVIER STRIPE OF
QPF SINCE 12Z/9 JUNE RUN WITH MAIN CHANGES TYING TO HOW FAR NORTH
TO SPREAD LIGHTER QPF.
HAVE ISSUED A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK STATEMENT /ESFMQT/ FOR MENOMINEE
COUNTY TO ADDRESS THE HEAVY RAIN AND ASSOCIATED UNCERTAINTY. ALSO
HIGHLIGHTED POTENTIAL FLOODING THAT COULD OCCUR IF THE HEAVIER RAIN
SCENARIO ENDS UP VERIFYING. IN THAT CASE...PROBABLY LOOKING AT AT
LEAST 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN 3 HOURS...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE RFC FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE FOR MENONIMEE COUNTY. NEED AT LEAST 50 PERCENT
CONFIDENCE TO DO A WATCH...BUT GIVEN THE BACK AND FORTH TRENDS AND
AN OVERALL TREND TO BE MORE SUPRESSED WITH THE HEAVIEST QPF OFF THE
LATEST GUIANCE...WENT ESF ROUTE FOR NOW. ONE POSSIBLE KEY FOR THE
FORECAST MAY BE HOW MUCH RAIN OCCURS OVER SOUTHERN MN THROUGH 18Z
TODAY. SEEMS THAT IF THAT THERE HEAVIER RAIN VERIFIES THERE...
PROBABLY A BETTER SHOT OF SEEING HEAVY QPF OVER SCNTRL CWA TONIGHT.
BUT...THAT IS LOOKING AT THINGS IN A LINEAR FASHION WHICH AT TIMES
CAN BE EASY TO DO IN THIS PROFESSION...BUT NOT ALWAYS THE PROPER
COURSE OF ACTION. HOPEFULLY DAYSHIFT CAN GET SOME TRENDS TO BETTER
SEE IF HEAVY RAIN WILL IMPACT SCNTRL CWA OR WILL IT MISS CWA TO THE
SOUTH. DESPITE BEING WITHIN 24 HOURS NOW FM POSSIBLE HEAVY
RAIN...ESF ALLOWS FOR WIGGLE ROOM TO EITHER STEP INTO A WATCH OR
ADVISORY OR GO WITH NOTHING IF HEAVY RAIN AXIS SLIDES TO THE SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2015
THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE
HEAVY RAIN POISED TO AFFECT THE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF UPPER
MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL WILL COME FROM A SHORTWAVE EJECTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FROM A UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS. AS THIS WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA TONIGHT...A
1000MB SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND THEN LIFT NORTHEAST INTO IOWA BY 00Z FRIDAY. THE LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY
WEAKEN...REACHING SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN BY 12Z FRIDAY AND INTO CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN BY 00Z SATURDAY. AS THIS LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM NORTHERN
MISSOURI TO CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TO CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN BY FRIDAY MORNING. AS THESE FEATURES LIFT
NORTHEAST...PRECIPITATION WILL FOLLOW IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION UNDER THE RIGHT REAR OF AN UPPER JET RUNNING FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR TO MAINE. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TO BE TIED TO THE
BEST 850-700 AND 700-500MB WARM AIR ADVECTION (FOCUSED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN...AND ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN AND SOUTHERN MENOMINEE COUNTY) AND THE NOSE OF THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON THE SAME LEVELS. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A FGEN BAND SETUP SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN
OR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT WITH
THIS THIN (20-40MI WIDE) BAND OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. THERE IS
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH THE WAVE (ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
BLANCA) AND MODELS HAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO NEAR
RECORD VALUES AT KGRB THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL BE OVER 200
PERCENT OF NORMAL. WITH THE FOCUS OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN BRUSHING THE
SOUTH CENTRAL AND THE FGEN BAND LIKELY NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THAT
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION...EXPECT THERE TO BE A FAIRLY QUICK CUTOFF
TO THE RAIN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST (AREAS NORTH OF HOUGHTON SHOULD
MISS OUT ON THE PRECIP). SOME OF THE 12Z RUNS HAVE STARTED TO FOCUS
THE HEAVIEST PRECIP A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...WITH THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP MAINLY AFFECTING FAR SOUTHERN MENOMINEE COUNTY
(MAINLY SOUTH OF STEPHENSON). WITH THE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THAT AREA...DO HAVE
SOME CONCERNS ON HOW FAR NORTH THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL. TEND TO
AGREE WITH THE SOUTHERLY TREND AND HAVE FOLLOWED THAT IDEA FOR THE
FORECAST. CURRENT FORECAST HAS ONE INCH PLUS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
IRON RIVER TO NEWBERRY AND OVER 2 INCHES FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
STEPHENSON. 09Z SREF PROBABILITIES OF 1 AND 2 INCH RAINFALL IN 24
HOURS POINT TOWARDS SIMILAR AREAS AS THE FORECAST...MAINLY FOCUSED
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CWA (ALTHOUGH THE 2IN PROBS ARE FOCUSED
FARTHER NORTH). SO THE QUESTION TURNED TO IF ANY HEADLINES WERE
NEEDED FOR THE AREA. LOOKING AT THE 3HR AND 6HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
FROM THE RFC...THE SOUTHERN PART OF MENOMINEE COUNTY HAS 1.8IN AND
2.2IN RESPECTIVELY...SO DON/T THINK THE RAIN WILL FALL FAST ENOUGH
FOR FLASH FLOODING. STILL THINK THERE WILL BE PONDING IN LOW LYING
AREAS AND SOME ISSUES WITH SMALL CREEKS/STREAMS...MORE REFLECTIVE OF
A FLOOD WATCH...BUT DIDN/T THINK THE COVERAGE WAS ENOUGH TO
HIGHLIGHT THE ENTIRE COUNTY AT THIS POINT (ESPECIALLY WITH THE
SOUTHWARD TREND IN THE 12Z MODELS). WILL BE SOMETHING FOR THE
UPCOMING SHIFTS TO MONITOR AND POTENTIALLY HIGHLIGHT MORE THAN JUST
THE HWO/EHWO. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY DEPART DURING THE DAY
ON FRIDAY...WITH MOST AREAS OUT OF THE RAIN BY THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW AND LEAD TO A
NICE START TO THE WEEKEND. HAVE INTERIOR HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AND
COOLER VALUES NEAR THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE WEAK EASTERLY FLOW
AIDING LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. ANOTHER WAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OUT
OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND AFFECT THE AREA
ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING ABUNDANT MOISTURE
SURGING BACK UP INTO THE AREA (PWAT VALUES RISING BACK ABOVE 1.5).
WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND IN LINE
WITH THE LOCATION OF THE BEST FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE.
FOR NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL SHIFT
EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA AND COULD BRING AN OCCASIONAL RAIN
SHOWER...BUT THE GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP MOISTURE
LIMITED FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE RUNNING AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAIN TO MOVE INTO KSAW AND POSSIBLY KIWD RIGHT
AROUND THE END OF THE 06Z TAF TIME...BUT LEFT THAT OUT OF THE
FORECAST GIVEN MODEL VARIABILITY AND LIMITED CONFIDENCE ON EXACT
TIMING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 504 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. LOW OVER THE PLAINS
WILL EJECT ACROSS SOUTHERN WI AND LOWER MI ON FRIDAY...BUT WINDS
WILL ONLY BRIEFLY INCREASE /STILL LESS THAN 25KTS/. HIGH PRESSURE
FILLS BACK IN AFTER THE LOW EXITS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATER
FRIDAY AND THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
EAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS... WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FROM WISCONSIN INTO NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. MEANWHILE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST FROM IOWA TO SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
RAIN CHANCES WILL TEMPORARILY DIMINISH OR END FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH OF THE STATE... BUT
INCREASE AGAIN FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT COMES
BACK NORTH AGAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015
TWO THINGS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: THE FIRST WILL BE FOR SCATTERED
DISCRETE STRONG TO SVR CELLS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SW CORNER OF LWR MI
THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN RECENTLY ACTIVE NARROW WEST-EAST CORRIDOR NEAR
THE WARM FRONT. THERE WERE SEVERAL REPORTS OF SVR HAIL/WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY ACROSS NRN IL/IN INTO EXTREME SE LWR MI. THIS CORRIDOR IS
SHOWN TO DRIFT BACK SLOWLY NORTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HRRR AND
NSSL WRF SHOWING CONVECTIVE INITIATION AFTER 18Z SOUTH OF GRR IN THE
VAN BUREN/KALMAZOO/CALHOUN COUNTY AREAS WHERE SFC CAPES RISE TO 1000-
2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON.
THE OTHER THING TO WATCH FOR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
IS ANY CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS MOVING EAST FROM THE ERN/IA/SRN WI/NRN IL
AREA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE IMPRESSIVE TODAY WITH 40-60KT
SHOWN FOR 0-6KM. THIS SUPPORTS ORGANIZED CONVECTION RIDING EAST
ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT INTO SRN LWR MI WITH THE POSSIBILTY
OF STRONG DAMAGING WINDS.
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY IN ADDITION TO A CONTINUED SVR
WEATHER THREAT RIDING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...A HEAVY
RAIN POTNENTIAL DEVELOPS AS 40-50 KT SWLY LLJ DEVELOPS FROM THE QUAD
CITIES TOWARD NRN LWR MI WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES. THE SET UP FAVORS
HEAVIEST RAIN NEAR AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 10 WHERE OVER 2 INCHES COULD
FALL. GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH EXPECTED FARTHER SOUTH.
THE SVR WEATHER THREAT FOR FRIDAY IS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR
AND MAINLY BEFORE 21Z WHERE INSTABILTY MAY HAVE A CHANCE TO RECOVER
BY EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE FROPA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015
THE SUN THROUGH MON TIME FRAME LOOKS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE THROUGH
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS FCST FOR THAT TIME FRAME.
SAT NIGHT LOOKS TO CONTINUE THE MAINLY DRY PERIOD THAT WE WILL SEE
ON SAT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. UPPER RIDGING WILL BE IN THE
PROCESS OF MOVING OUT...AND IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE BIT TO SATURATE
THE AIR MASS ONCE AGAIN.
WE DO LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MOVE BACK IN DURING THE DAY ON
SUN AND CONTINUE THROUGH MON. WE WILL SEE THE MAIN TROUGH THAT WILL
BE AFFECTING THE DESERT SW FROM TODAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND EJECT TO
THE NE IN A SOMEWHAT SIMILAR FASHION TO THE WAVE COMING IN LATE
TONIGHT AND FRI. ANOTHER GOOD SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN AHEAD
OF THE WAVE...AND THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME DECENT INSTABILITY
TO BE PRESENT ON SUN. THE WAVE WILL MOVE BY ON MON...AND THE COLD
FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH DROPS DOWN ACROSS THE
MIDWEST.
WE HAVE DRIED THE FCST OUT A BIT FOR THE TUE AND TUE NIGHT TIME
FRAME. BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT IN PUSHING THE FRONT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
BY TUE INCREASES OUR THAT THE AREA WILL SEE A DRY DAY. THIS COULD
BE ANOTHER SHORT BREAK AS A SOMEWHAT ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AND WILL SEND SHORT WAVES THROUGH THE FLOW. THESE
SHORT WAVES COULD TOUCH OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS AS THEY RIDE ALONG
THE NEARLY STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINNING AGAIN ON WED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015
THE FCST PERIOD WILL START OUT QUIET WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH THIS
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CLOUD COVER OUTSIDE OF SOME STRATOCUMULUS LINGERING ALONG I-94.
THE FCST WILL BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVE THEN THIS AFTERNOON AS
SHOWER AND STORM CHCS WILL INCREASE. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE
BACK NORTH AND WILL START TO POP SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MID
AFTERNOON TOWARD I-94. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH INTO
THE EVENING HOURS.
WE EXPECT THAT AT LEAST SOME MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT UNDER
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING AS THEY BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD. SOME LOCAL IFR WILL
BE POSSIBLE UNDER THE HEAVIEST STORMS. THIS WILL BE TOO LOCAL TO
MENTION IN THE FCST FOR THE TIME BEING.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015
THE MAIN CONCERN OVER LK MI NEXT 48 HOURS IS FREQUENT TSTMS AND
AREAS OF DENSE FOG. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF STRONGER SSW FLOW LATER
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY SOUTH OF MUSKEGON OTHERWISE OFFSHORE FLOW
SHOULD LIMIT WAVE HEIGHTS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF MUSKEGON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1149 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015
RIVER LEVELS ACROSS THE LOWER PENINSULA ARE RUNNING NEAR TO SOMEWHAT
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE UPCOMING SYSTEM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY WILL FEATURE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND THUS THERE ARE SOME FLOODING CONCERNS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES AND APPROACHING 2 INCHES
FOR THURSDAY-FRIDAY ARE CLIMATOLOGICALLY AT LEAST 90TH PERCENTILE
FOR THIS AREA FOR EARLY-MID JUNE... PERHAPS NEAR RECORD.
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL... AND AT LEAST SHORT DURATION AREAL FLOODING
ISSUES WHERE STORMS PERSIST. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS A LOW LEVEL JET INTERSECTING A WARM FRONT
PRODUCES CONVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT. A BAND OF OVER 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL APPEARS LIKELY. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR OVER CENTRAL OR NORTHERN MICHIGAN...
WHICH WOULD INCLUDE COUNTIES IN OUR NORTHERN CWA AS WELL AS WFO
GAYLORD`S AREA. INCREASED SOIL MOISTURE AND RIVER LEVELS AFTER THIS
EVENT WILL SET THE BASELINE FOR INCREASED HYDRO CONCERNS INTO NEXT
WEEK AS ADDITIONAL WAVES OF PRECIPITATION MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...MEADE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
400 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS...HEAVY RAIN AND
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...THEN DECREASING COVERAGE OF
STORMS/SHOWERS TONIGHT.
A PARADE OF SHORT WAVES WERE NOTED ON THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY WITH THE REMNANTS OF BLANCA AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM
NEBRASKA WEST TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. 4 TO 8 DEG C H7 DEWPOINTS
WERE COMMON OVER A LARGE AREA. THE 00Z OAX SOUNDING HAD 1.53 PWAT
WITH INSTABILITY AT 3300J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS ERUPTED NEAR THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND ALSO ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
OVERNIGHT THESE STORMS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP AND PER THE RECENT
WSR-88D RADAR STRETCHED FROM SOUTHERN MN THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND IOWA INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS. ADDITIONAL
STORMS WERE LOCATED TO THE WEST OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA.
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS WERE TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE HEAVY
RAIN OVERNIGHT SAVE FOR THE 00Z NCEP HRRR WHICH WAS A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH...BUT STILL LACKED THE STORMS FARTHER SOUTH MORE INTO KS.
THE STORMS IN WESTERN NEBRASKA SHOULD TRACK FARTHER NORTH
COMPARED TO THE AREA WITH RAIN THAT FELL OVER THE LAST 12HRS.
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THE RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE OF THE JET
CONTINUES THROUGH 18Z IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. THE BEST OMEGA IS
OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN SHIFTS TOWARD SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA TOWARD 18Z...BUT LINGERS IN SOUTHWEST IOWA THROUGH 00Z.
THE H7 WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA CONTINUES IN
EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING...THEN SHIFTS MORE INTO IOWA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH 1.5 TO 2.0
INCHES OF PWAT. THE LOW LEVEL JET OF 40 TO 50 KTS WHICH HAS AIDED
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT CONTINUES THIS MORNING...BUT SHIFTS INTO
WESTERN IOWA. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS THIS MORNING AND THEN TREND
HIGHER POPS WITH THE DEFORMATION BAND AND ALONG THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY LOWERING SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE
EVENING.
THIS AFTERNOON...WILL NEED TO WATCH SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/SOUTHWEST
IOWA ALONG THE FRONT AS INSTABILITY INCREASES TO 2000-3000 J/KG AND
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE/ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DRIER AIR ARRIVES FOR FRIDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH
TOWARD SOUTHERN KANSAS. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTH ACROSS
KANSAS AND INTO NEBRASKA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL
RETURN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SPOTTY
STORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL
FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE MID 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015
RADAR MOSAIC REVEALING WIDESPREAD TSRA ACTIVITY CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN NEB WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY OVER N-CNTRL KS.
EXPECTED PCPN ACTIVITY/OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT
ALL TERMINALS THRU THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOLLOWED BY CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR WITH ONSET OF FRONTAL PASSAGE/WIND SHIFT TO THE
NW.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015
WILL LET THE CURRENT FFA REMAIN INTO EFFECT THIS MORNING WITH 1
TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IN SEVERAL SPOTS AND MATCHED UP WITH FSD/DMX
WITH OUR IOWA COUNTIES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED THIS
MORNING. CONVECTION CONTINUES...HOWEVER THE BETTER MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL RATES SHIFTING INTO IOWA. RAINFALL RATES ARE BEGINNING TO
INCREASE FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WITH THIS DEVELOPING AREA
OF STORMS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE IS ABUNDANT MOISTURE
AVAILABLE WITH CONTINUED SUPPORT FOR NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON FOR DIFFERENT PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE STORMS WILL EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS CAPABLE OF HEAVY
RAIN.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ050>053-
065>068-078-088>093.
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR IAZ043-055-
056-069-079-080-090-091.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...DEE
HYDROLOGY...ZAPOTOCNY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1223 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015
TONIGHT
A WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF EASTERN
NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON...PROVIDING A POINT OF INITIATION FOR FOR A
FEW STORMS. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FAIRLY STEEP AT 8-9 C/KM IN SE
NEBRASKA. DEWPOINTS HAVE ALSO SURGED INTO THE MID 60S IN AN AREA
WITH 2000 TO 3500 J/KG OF POTENTIAL ENERGY...HOWEVER SHEAR IS
STILL VERY WEAK AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION FOR ANY SEVERE DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA NEAR THAT BOUNDARY.
TONIGHT A SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION BRINGING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO OUR CWA. HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE VERY POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO
2 INCHES ARE STILL ANTICIPATED LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY HOURS OF
THURSDAY MORNING...WHICH IS NEAR THE NAEFS 99.5 CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS COULD LEAD TO RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TONIGHT. A
FEW SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT AS WELL WITH
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND AMPLE MOISTURE IN REGION. 850 WINDS WILL
ALSO INTENSIFY TO AROUND 50KTS IN OUR SOUTH. THE MAIN THREATS WITH
ANY STORMS LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
SURFACE LOW/UPPER TROUGH THAT IS ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT 12Z
THURSDAY WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. WIDESPREAD AREA OF PRECIP
MOVING THROUGH THE MID MISSOURI RIVER AREA IN THE MORNING. THERE
MAY BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP CHANCES IN EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA BY LATE MORNING EARLY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH DEFORMATION
BAND SHOWERS ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT TRAILING ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW WILL STILL BE IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA THROUGH PEAK HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON...
WITH VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS NOTED. THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY
LIGHT UP BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN IOWA THROUGH SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA WITH AN ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THAT WILL LINGER
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MEANWHILE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LOW WILL LIKELY FILL IN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA THROUGH EVENING...THEN ENDING ALTOGETHER BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ON FRIDAY COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY AND COOL WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
THE NEXT TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO AFFECT
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTURE SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASES
ONCE AGAIN. WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY OR CLOUDY SKIES ON SATURDAY...TEMPS
SHOULD AGAIN BE COOLER IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING INTO THE 40 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015
THERE WILL JUST ABOUT A DAILY CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INITIALLY BECOMES MORE
ZONAL THROUGH TIME. A WEAK FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION APPEARS
TO STALL AT LEAST EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT MAY GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTH OR DISSIPATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
GRADUALLY WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL REACHING THE MID 80S BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015
RADAR MOSAIC REVEALING WIDESPREAD TSRA ACTIVITY CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN NEB WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY OVER N-CNTRL KS.
EXPECTED PCPN ACTIVITY/OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT
ALL TERMINALS THRU THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOLLOWED BY CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR WITH ONSET OF FRONTAL PASSAGE/WIND SHIFT TO THE
NW.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015
WITH AMPLE ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTURE ON HAND FOR CONVECTION TO TAP
INTO...SITUATION APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF
THE HRRR AND RAP13 HAVE BEEN FOCUSING BRUNT OF PCPN ACTIVITY
WITHIN THE CWA WHERE PCPN EFFICIENCY IS QUITE FAVORABLE WITH DEEP
WARM CLOUD LYR DEPTH/PWS APPROACHING 2"/STRONG LLVL MOISTURE FEED.
WITH LLVL SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING...UPPER LLVL STEERING WILL BE
OFFSET LEADING TO CORFIDI VECTORS OF LESS THAN 10KTS. GIVEN
THIS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THRU THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ050>053-
065>068-078-088>093.
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ069-079-
080-090-091.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GROSS/DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...DEE
HYDROLOGY...DEE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1128 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015
TONIGHT
A WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF EASTERN
NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON...PROVIDING A POINT OF INITIATION FOR FOR A
FEW STORMS. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FAIRLY STEEP AT 8-9 C/KM IN SE
NEBRASKA. DEWPOINTS HAVE ALSO SURGED INTO THE MID 60S IN AN AREA
WITH 2000 TO 3500 J/KG OF POTENTIAL ENERGY...HOWEVER SHEAR IS
STILL VERY WEAK AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION FOR ANY SEVERE DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA NEAR THAT BOUNDARY.
TONIGHT A SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION BRINGING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO OUR CWA. HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE VERY POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO
2 INCHES ARE STILL ANTICIPATED LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY HOURS OF
THURSDAY MORNING...WHICH IS NEAR THE NAEFS 99.5 CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS COULD LEAD TO RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TONIGHT. A
FEW SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT AS WELL WITH
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND AMPLE MOISTURE IN REGION. 850 WINDS WILL
ALSO INTENSIFY TO AROUND 50KTS IN OUR SOUTH. THE MAIN THREATS WITH
ANY STORMS LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
SURFACE LOW/UPPER TROUGH THAT IS ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT 12Z
THURSDAY WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. WIDESPREAD AREA OF PRECIP
MOVING THROUGH THE MID MISSOURI RIVER AREA IN THE MORNING. THERE
MAY BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP CHANCES IN EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA BY LATE MORNING EARLY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH DEFORMATION
BAND SHOWERS ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT TRAILING ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW WILL STILL BE IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA THROUGH PEAK HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON...
WITH VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS NOTED. THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY
LIGHT UP BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN IOWA THROUGH SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA WITH AN ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THAT WILL LINGER
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MEANWHILE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LOW WILL LIKELY FILL IN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA THROUGH EVENING...THEN ENDING ALTOGETHER BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ON FRIDAY COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY AND COOL WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
THE NEXT TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO AFFECT
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTURE SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASES
ONCE AGAIN. WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY OR CLOUDY SKIES ON SATURDAY...TEMPS
SHOULD AGAIN BE COOLER IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING INTO THE 40 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015
THERE WILL JUST ABOUT A DAILY CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INITIALLY BECOMES MORE
ZONAL THROUGH TIME. A WEAK FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION APPEARS
TO STALL AT LEAST EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT MAY GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTH OR DISSIPATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
GRADUALLY WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL REACHING THE MID 80S BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 710 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING LINE OF TSRA QUICKLY EXPANDING INTO ERN
NEB FROM THE WEST AND JUST A MATTER OF TIME NOW BEFORE REACHING
THE TAF SITES. EXPECT PROLONG PERIOD OF PCPN ACTIVITY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH
STRONGER TSRA. THERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING
DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. AS OF NOW THE PROBABILITY OF SEVERE TSRA
LOOK REMOTE. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR THEN THURSDAY MORNING
UPON FRONTAL PASSAGE/WIND SHIFT TO THE NW AS DRIER AIR MASS
FILTERS IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015
WITH AMPLE ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTURE ON HAND FOR CONVECTION TO TAP
INTO...SITUATION APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF
THE HRRR AND RAP13 HAVE BEEN FOCUSING BRUNT OF PCPN ACTIVITY
WITHIN THE CWA WHERE PCPN EFFICIENCY IS QUITE FAVORABLE WITH DEEP
WARM CLOUD LYR DEPTH/PWS APPROACHING 2"/STRONG LLVL MOISTURE FEED.
WITH LLVL SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING...UPPER LLVL STEERING WILL BE
OFFSET LEADING TO CORFIDI VECTORS OF LESS THAN 10KTS. GIVEN
THIS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THRU THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR NEZ050>053-
065>068-078-088>093.
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR IAZ069-079-080-
090-091.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GROSS/DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...DEE
HYDROLOGY...DEE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1232 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...MOVING EASTWARD. ISOLATED RADAR RETURNS AT BEST FARTHER
NORTH. CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK WITH SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF
SHOWERS NORTH AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST SOUTH. CHANCE OF
FOG IS STILL IN THE LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE HRRR AND RAP
MODELS...MAINLY DICKINSON/WATFORD CITY AREA. LIGHT WINDS WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S ON TRACK FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1001 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015
ONLY MINOR UPDATE TO POPS THIS EVENING BASED ON LATEST RADAR.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS
WEDNESDAY EVENING. LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS TWO BANDS OF SHOWERS
TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ONE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
I94 CORRIDOR AND ANOTHER ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 2
CORRIDOR. UPDATED POPS EARLY THIS EVENING TO REFLECT CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS. SHOWERS ARE DISSIPATING AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO DRIER
ATMOSPHERE. ALSO TOOK OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDER TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. 18Z NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE MINIMAL
CAPE. LATEST RAP/HRRR ITERATIONS ALSO INDICATE MU-CAPE REMAINING
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER EASTERN ONTARIO WITH HIGH
SETTLING THROUGH THE CANADIAN PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WEST WITH LOW OVER
CALIFORNIA RESULTING IN WEST/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA.
WIDE VARIETY OF SHORT WAVES NOTED IN THE FLOW IN OUR REGION.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...UNSETTLED PATTERN
CONTINUES INTO THIS EVENING AS PARADE OF WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVE
THROUGH BRINGING CONTINUED SHOWER CHANCES TO THE AREA. WILL KEEP
THUNDER CHANCES LOW WITH MEAGER INSTABILITY IN PLACE. HAVE ADDED
THE MENTION OF SOME PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTH GIVEN
THE LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
ON THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL
BRING DIMINISHING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015
TRANSITORY MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
FRIDAY EVENING WILL RESULT IN A DRY/WARM FORECAST. LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OUR NEXT UPSTREAM UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE GULF OF ALASKA IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST
ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MANITOBA BY SUNDAY.
IN DOING SO...AHEAD OF THE TROUGH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MENTIONED ABOVE
WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SURFACE COLD FRONTAL
SYSTEM ENTERING NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE COLD
FRONT BEING PARALLEL TO THE UPPER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT A
SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
THUS MAINTAINED A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHEAST SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE HIGHEST POPS ARE CONFINED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK TO RESIDE NORTH
OF THE BORDER CLOSEST TO A POTENT 100KT/300MB JET STREAK SHIFTING
ACROSS CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR ANY SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND CO-LOCATED WITH THE HIGHEST
CAPE/SHEAR WOULD FAVOR THE WEST SATURDAY...THEN ACROSS THE SOUTH
SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD BRINGING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...ONLY A MENTION
OF VCSH AT KJMS WITH MOST CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS
OF MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE FARTHER
TO THE SOUTH...SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP A SCATTERED IFR LAYER AND A
MENTION OF VCFG.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
542 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT
AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE
THURSDAY. THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD NORTH ONCE AGAIN FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WHEN SUMMERTIME HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WILL BE THE RULE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CONFLICTING SIGNALS ON CONVECTION TODAY...WITH LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY. FIRST OFF...CONFIDENCE IN NEAR-TERM/MESO MODEL
PERFORMANCE HAS BEEN TAINTED BY YESTERDAY/S QUESTIONABLE GUIDANCE
AS NOTED BY DAY AND EVENING SHIFTS. THEY SEEM TO BE DOING BETTER
HERE OVERNIGHT...ESP THE HI-RES ARW. SO...FOLLOWING THAT GUY DOWN
THE ROAD YIELDS VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION LATER TODAY.
HOWEVER...SPARSE BUT PERSISTENT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING UPSTREAM
THROUGH THE NIGHT. 40KT LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BE
DYING DOWN TO JUST 25-30KTS THROUGH THE DAY. CAPES FROM SOME MDLS
GIANT - NEAR 2000 IN THE CENTRAL COS. BUT OTHERS YIELD ONLY
500-800. STILL PLENTY OF CAPE FOR THUNDER AND POSSIBLE
DOWNDRAFTS/GUSTINESS...BUT SEVERITY IS CERTAINLY IN QUESTION
THEN. THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTHWARD FROM IT/S SEEMING CURRENT
W-E POSITION OVER THE NRN TIER. MDLS AGREE THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL
MOVE ONLY SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD KEEPING THE W-E ORIENTATION.
THEREFORE...THE HIGHER 40 POPS WILL BE DRAWN OVER FIG-UNV-SEG-MUI.
THE BIGGER CAP IN PLACE OVER THE SRN TIER WILL LIKELY THWART MOST
ATTEMPTS TO GENERATE DEEP CONVECTION THERE. SO...LOWER POPS THERE.
THE LACK OF MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP POPS LOWER IN
THE NORTHERN TIER AS WELL. MAXES WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER OF COURSE. BUT THE MORNING CROP OF CLOUDS SHOULD BE
MAINLY MID CLOUDS AND WILL SHOW SOME BIG BREAKS. NOT CLOUDY
ENOUGH TO KEEP THE ALMOST FULL JUNE SUN FROM HEATING THINGS UP
SIGNIFICANTLY. PLACES ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE WILL GET VERY
CLOSE TO 90F...WHILE THE NORTHERN MTNS GET CLOSE TO 80F. THE
CLOUDS AND POSS TS/SHRA IN THE CENTRAL STRIPE MAY KEEP THEM DOWN
CLOSER TO 80...BUT NOT COUNTING OUT THE JUNE SUN AND CALL FOR
MAXES IN THE M80S IN THE VALLEYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
CONVECTIONS SHOULD WANE IN THE EARLY EVENING WITH NO SUPPORT FROM
ANY SIG JET STREAK OR LLVL WINDS/MOISTURE ADVECTION. FRONT SLIDES
NORTHWARD A BIT AND COULD MAKE A SPRINKLE IN THE N/W. MORE-
CERTAINLY...THE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL STAY MILD/WARM WITH MINS IN THE 60S.
HEIGHTS DO NOT CHANGE AT ALL...SO POPS SHOULD BE LOWER IN THE
S...BUT ELEVATED HEATING SURFACES - LIKE THE LAURELS - MAY PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT TO POP SCT T/SHRA. THE DEEP MIXING ON FRIDAY WILL
PUSH THE 8H TEMPS TO 20C. MAXES IN THE 90S ARE EXPECTED IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 80S EVEN ON THE HILL TOPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE FRI-TUE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED
BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDING WWD FROM THE WRN ATLC OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS WILL FAVOR
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
FOCUSED WITHIN PLUME OF ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE/PWATS POOLING AROUND
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY
WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 90F EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. STRONG
HEATING OF A MOIST BLYR/60+ SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD SUPPORT SOME
WEAKLY FORCED DIURNAL CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH
POSSIBLE TRIGGER FOCUS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OR LEE SFC
TROUGH. A WEAKENING MID LVL TROUGH IS FCST TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST INTO SATURDAY AND SHOULD PUSH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALONG THE LOWER LAKES SWD INTO CENTRAL PA. SCT TSTMS
SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVG BOUNDARY WITH A MODEL
CONSENSUS FAVORING THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE
BUILDING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HOLD THE
WAVY/INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE FRONT INVOF THE MASON DIXON LINE. THERE
IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH DRY AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT
AS THE GEFS FCSTS A NOTABLE DROP IN PWATS SAT NGT-SUN BEFORE
ANOMALOUS MSTR/PWATS SURGE BACK INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN MCS TYPE COMPLEX MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA NEXT WEEK BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE DETAILS ESPECIALLY AT
THIS RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO PA EARLY THIS
MORNING...ACCOMPANIED BY SCT SHRA ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN PA.
CAN/T RULE OUT A BRIEF VIS REDUCTION AT KUNV OR KIPT BTWN 11Z-13Z
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR OUTPUT. HOWEVER...MAIN AVIATION
CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE AT KBFD...WHERE PLUME OF
PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE MTNS COULD PRODUCE TEMPO IFR
CIGS THRU ARND 11Z. A BAND OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT...COMBINED WITH
MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AT THE SFC...SHOULD PRODUCE MARGINAL LLWS CONDS
BTWN 09Z-12Z ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PA.
IMPROVING FLYING CONDS EXPECTED AFTER 12Z...AS ANY STRATOCU AT
KBFD LIFTS TO VFR AND DIMINISHING WINDS ALOFT END THE THREAT OF
LLWS ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL PA. STALLED SFC FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL PA COULD TRIGGER SCT LATE DAY AND EVENING TSRA IN THE
VICINITY OF KUNV. HOWEVER...NO EXPLICIT MENTION IN THE TAFS DUE
TO EXPECTED SPARSE COVERAGE AND UNCERTAIN TIMING.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS...MAINLY NW MTNS.
SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS...MAINLY SOUTH.
SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
MON...PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W MTNS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
202 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT
AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE
THURSDAY. THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD NORTH ONCE AGAIN FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WHEN SUMMERTIME HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WILL BE THE RULE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING/...
130 AM UPDATE...
MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TIMING/PLACEMENT OF POPS BASED ON LATEST RADAR
TRENDS AND MESO GUIDANCE THAT FINALLY SEEMS TO HAVE IT/S ACT
TOGETHER. RADAR ALMOST QUIET OVER NRN OH NOW...AS OPPOSED TO A
VERY ACTIVE PPI OVER THE LAST TWO HRS. 40 KT WINDS AT 8H OUT OF
THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY MSTR INTO THE AREA...BUT WE HAVE
LOST JUST ABOUT ALL CAPE. ALSO...WITHOUT A COHERENT UPPER
WAVE...IT WILL BE VERY VERY DIFFICULT TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION IN THE
NEXT 1-2 HRS. FRONT SEEMS TO SINK INTO THE CENTRAL COS OVERNIGHT
AND WHILE AN ISOLD SHRA IS POSSIBLE THERE IN THE MORNING...WILL
WAIT TO LATER IN THE DAY TO TURN UP THE POPS.
10 PM UPDATE...
A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION HAS FINALLY SPARKED OFF AND NOW
EXTENDS FROM EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO ALL THE WAY BACK TO SOUTHERN
IOWA.
HARD TO HAVE A LOT OF FAITH IN THE SHORT RANGE HIGH RES GUIDANCE
FOR THE PROGRESS OF THE CONVECTION. THE HRRR SOLUTION DOESN`T SEEM
TO MAKE SENSE AS IT BACKS PART OF THE LINE BACK TO THE NORTH
BEFORE DROPPING IT SOUTH ONCE AGAIN OVER NWRN PA. AT THIS POINT
THE WRF-NMM SEEMS TO HAVE THE MOST LOGICAL SOLUTION KEEPING A
COHERENT LINE OF CONVECTION IN TACT THROUGH 03-06Z BEFORE
WEAKENING IT RAPIDLY. THIS MATCHES WELL TO THE SREF POPS THAT
SUGGESTED ACTIVITY DIES BEFORE IT GETS INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
FOR THE TIME BEING THE STORMS HAVE SOME LATE EVENING CAPE AND
RESPECTABLE WIND SHEAR TO WORK WITH...BUT THE RAP ALSO INDICATES
THAT THE CIN IS ON THE INCREASE AS ONE WOULD EXPECT GIVEN THE
HOUR.
IT WILL REMAIN MILD OVERNIGHT AND I DROPPED THE CHANCES FOR RAIN
DOWN TO NEAR ZERO AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /11 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT/BOUNDARY SETS UP SOMEWHERE OVERHEAD AS THE BIG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HOLDS IT UP. A RESURGENCE IN SHRA/TSRA IS
EXPECTED THURS AFTN...BUT MUCH LESS CAPE AND ALMOST NO TRIGGERING
FEATURE WILL MEAN THEY WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED AND NOT STRONG. THE
BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES. MAXES ON
THURSDAY WILL TAKE A RUN AT 90F IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE SE
WITH 80S ELSEWHERE. A LITTLE MORE HEAT WILL BE ADDED ON FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE FRI-TUE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED
BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDING WWD FROM THE WRN ATLC OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS WILL FAVOR
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
FOCUSED WITHIN PLUME OF ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE/PWATS POOLING AROUND
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY
WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 90F EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. STRONG
HEATING OF A MOIST BLYR/60+ SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD SUPPORT SOME
WEAKLY FORCED DIURNAL CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH
POSSIBLE TRIGGER FOCUS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OR LEE SFC
TROUGH. A WEAKENING MID LVL TROUGH IS FCST TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST INTO SATURDAY AND SHOULD PUSH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALONG THE LOWER LAKES SWD INTO CENTRAL PA. SCT TSTMS
SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVG BOUNDARY WITH A MODEL
CONSENSUS FAVORING THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE
BUILDING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HOLD THE
WAVY/INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE FRONT INVOF THE MASON DIXON LINE. THERE
IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH DRY AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT
AS THE GEFS FCSTS A NOTABLE DROP IN PWATS SAT NGT-SUN BEFORE
ANOMALOUS MSTR/PWATS SURGE BACK INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN MCS TYPE COMPLEX MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA NEXT WEEK BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE DETAILS ESPECIALLY AT
THIS RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO PA EARLY THIS
MORNING...ACCOMPANIED BY SCT SHRA AND AN ISOLD TSRA ACROSS
NORTHERN PA. A BRIEF VIS REDUCTION REMAINS POSS AT KBFD THRU ARND
09Z FROM THESE SHOWERS. HOWEVER...A MVFR CIG REDUCTION IS MORE
LIKELY AT KBFD BTWN 09Z-12Z...THE RESULT OF A MOIST SWRLY FLOW
ASCENDING THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NW PA. FURTHER SOUTH...VFR CONDS
APPEAR NEARLY CERTAIN EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PA. HOWEVER...A BAND OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT...COMBINED
WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AT THE SFC...SHOULD PRODUCE MARGINAL LLWS
CONDS BTWN 06Z-12Z ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PA.
IMPROVING FLYING CONDS EXPECTED AFTER 12Z...AS ANY STRATOCU AT
KBFD LIFTS TO VFR AND DIMINISHING WINDS ALOFT END THE THREAT OF
LLWS ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL PA. STALLED SFC FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL PA COULD TRIGGER A FEW ISOLD...EVENING SHRA/TSRA SOMEWHERE
BTWN I-80 AND THE PA TURNPIKE. HOWEVER...NO EXPLICIT MENTION IN
THE TAFS DUE TO EXPECTED SPARSE COVERAGE AND UNCERTAIN TIMING.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS...MAINLY NW MTNS.
SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS...MAINLY SOUTH.
SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
MON...PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W MTNS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
147 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT
AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE
THURSDAY. THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD NORTH ONCE AGAIN FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WHEN SUMMERTIME HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WILL BE THE RULE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION HAS FINALLY SPARKED OFF AND NOW
EXTENDS FROM EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO ALL THE WAY BACK TO SOUTHERN
IOWA.
HARD TO HAVE A LOT OF FAITH IN THE SHORT RANGE HIGH RES GUIDANCE
FOR THE PROGRESS OF THE CONVECTION. THE HRRR SOLUTION DOESN`T SEEM
TO MAKE SENSE AS IT BACKS PART OF THE LINE BACK TO THE NORTH
BEFORE DROPPING IT SOUTH ONCE AGAIN OVER NWRN PA. AT THIS POINT
THE WRF-NMM SEEMS TO HAVE THE MOST LOGICAL SOLUTION KEEPING A
COHERENT LINE OF CONVECTION IN TACT THROUGH 03-06Z BEFORE
WEAKENING IT RAPIDLY. THIS MATCHES WELL TO THE SREF POPS THAT
SUGGESTED ACTIVITY DIES BEFORE IT GETS INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
FOR THE TIME BEING THE STORMS HAVE SOME LATE EVENING CAPE AND
RESPECTABLE WIND SHEAR TO WORK WITH...BUT THE RAP ALSO INDICATES
THAT THE CIN IS ON THE INCREASE AS ONE WOULD EXPECT GIVEN THE
HOUR.
IT WILL REMAIN MILD OVERNIGHT AND I DROPPED THE CHANCES FOR RAIN
DOWN TO NEAR ZERO AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT/BOUNDARY SETS UP SOMEWHERE OVERHEAD AS THE BIG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HOLDS IT UP. A RESURGENCE IN SHRA/TSRA IS
EXPECTED THURS AFTN...BUT MUCH LESS CAPE AND ALMOST NO TRIGGERING
FEATURE WILL MEAN THEY WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED AND NOT STRONG. THE
BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES. MAXES ON
THURSDAY WILL TAKE A RUN AT 90F IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE SE
WITH 80S ELSEWHERE. A LITTLE MORE HEAT WILL BE ADDED ON FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE FRI-TUE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED
BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDING WWD FROM THE WRN ATLC OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS WILL FAVOR
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
FOCUSED WITHIN PLUME OF ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE/PWATS POOLING AROUND
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY
WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 90F EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. STRONG
HEATING OF A MOIST BLYR/60+ SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD SUPPORT SOME
WEAKLY FORCED DIURNAL CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH
POSSIBLE TRIGGER FOCUS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OR LEE SFC
TROUGH. A WEAKENING MID LVL TROUGH IS FCST TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST INTO SATURDAY AND SHOULD PUSH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALONG THE LOWER LAKES SWD INTO CENTRAL PA. SCT TSTMS
SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVG BOUNDARY WITH A MODEL
CONSENSUS FAVORING THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE
BUILDING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HOLD THE
WAVY/INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE FRONT INVOF THE MASON DIXON LINE. THERE
IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH DRY AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT
AS THE GEFS FCSTS A NOTABLE DROP IN PWATS SAT NGT-SUN BEFORE
ANOMALOUS MSTR/PWATS SURGE BACK INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN MCS TYPE COMPLEX MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA NEXT WEEK BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE DETAILS ESPECIALLY AT
THIS RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO PA EARLY THIS
MORNING...ACCOMPANIED BY SCT SHRA AND AN ISOLD TSRA ACROSS
NORTHERN PA. A BRIEF VIS REDUCTION REMAINS POSS AT KBFD THRU ARND
09Z FROM THESE SHOWERS. HOWEVER...A MVFR CIG REDUCTION IS MORE
LIKELY AT KBFD BTWN 09Z-12Z...THE RESULT OF A MOIST SWRLY FLOW
ASCENDING THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NW PA. FURTHER SOUTH...VFR CONDS
APPEAR NEARLY CERTAIN EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PA. HOWEVER...A BAND OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT...COMBINED
WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AT THE SFC...SHOULD PRODUCE MARGINAL LLWS
CONDS BTWN 06Z-12Z ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PA.
IMPROVING FLYING CONDS EXPECTED AFTER 12Z...AS ANY STRATOCU AT
KBFD LIFTS TO VFR AND DIMINISHING WINDS ALOFT END THE THREAT OF
LLWS ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL PA. STALLED SFC FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL PA COULD TRIGGER A FEW ISOLD...EVENING SHRA/TSRA SOMEWHERE
BTWN I-80 AND THE PA TURNPIKE. HOWEVER...NO EXPLICIT MENTION IN
THE TAFS DUE TO EXPECTED SPARSE COVERAGE AND UNCERTAIN TIMING.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS...MAINLY NW MTNS.
SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS...MAINLY SOUTH.
SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
MON...PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W MTNS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1210 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 833 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015/
UPDATE...
NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION...
VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MID
SOUTH THIS EVENING...BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW MENTIONABLE POP LEVELS.
IN FACT...A LONE STORM NEAR BARTLETT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY
SOUTHWESTWARD AND MAY PRODUCE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS. MODERATE AMOUNTS OF THERMODYNAMIC INSTABILITY STILL REMAINS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE MID SOUTH THIS EVENING WITH
MLCAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 2000 J/KG. THEREFORE...CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT COVERAGE. THE CURRENT FORECAST MAINTAINS
SILENT POPS THIS EVENING AND NOT PLANNING ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME
BASED UPON CURRENT COVERAGE. PLAN TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.
JLH
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015/
TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER WEATHER HAS SET IN ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S...HEAT INDICES WERE
BETWEEN ONE AND THREE DEGREES WARMER IN MOST SPOTS. A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 BUT DRY AIR
ALOFT IS LIMITING THEIR DEVELOPMENT.
FOR TONIGHT...WILL GO WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR FORECAST. BOTH THE HRRR
AND RAP SHOW RAIN FREE CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH ANY CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON DISSIPATING BY SUNSET. HOWEVER...WILL MONITOR IN
CASE STORMS DO DEVELOP MORE THAN ANTICIPATED THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF
COASTAL STATES WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW
INCREASING MOISTURE TO PUSH INTO THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
WITH DAYTIME HEATING...SIMILAR TO TODAY PERHAPS A DEGREE
LESS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WITH
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH MS.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH FRIDAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE GULF
COAST. SOUTHERLY FLOW SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL CAUSE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCES ONCE AGAIN AS YOU GO SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERED SOME BY MORE CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED CONVECTION.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
OVER THE WEEKEND...AND PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. SEASONABLY WARM
WEATHER WILL OCCUR. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE BETTER
CHANCES MAY GRADUALLY SHIFT TO ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER AS
THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO THE EAST. IN ADDITION...WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY AFFECT AREAS
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER.
JCL
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ONLY
UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES AROUND TS CHANCES ON THURSDAY AS AIRMASS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN...PERHAPS MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN TODAY...NEAR TUP. HAVE CONTINUED THE TEMPO GROUP
FOR THIS CHANCE WITH THIS TAF SET.
TVT
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1132 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015
...SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAIN EVENT WITH FLOODING POSSIBLE BEGINNING
LATE THU...
CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED IN THE NORTHERN STREAM NORTHWEST FLOW FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOTED IN EASTERN
WASHINGTON. MEANWHILE...IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM AN UPPER TROUGH
WAS PRESENT OVER CALIFORNIA WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO NEBRASKA.
WITHIN THAT SOUTHWEST FLOW...SHORTWAVES OF NOTE WERE OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH. BOTH SHORTWAVES ARE GENERATING
CONVECTION OVER COLORADO. CONDITIONS ARE QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WITH A NOSE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. A DRY AIRMASS AS
DEPICTED ON THE 12Z MPX SOUNDING...REFLECTED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER
OF 0.67 INCHES...HAS ALLOWED FOR DEEP MIXING AGAIN...PUSHING
DEWPOINTS DOWN AS LOW AS THE UPPER 40S IN SOME SPOTS. WITH 925MB
TEMPS OF 19C NORTH TO 22C SOUTH AND PLENTY OF SUN...TEMPERATURES
HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. TO OUR SOUTH...THE COLD
FRONT FROM LAST NIGHT HAS STALLED JUST SOUTH OF I-80. A MUCH MORE
HUMID AIRMASS EXISTS SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S AND 850MB DEWPOINTS OF 10-14C.
MODELS PROG THE TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT TO LIFT
OUT...WHICH ALLOWS SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM TO IMPACT THE
AREA BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST FOR THE SHORT TERM IS IN NORTHEAST COLORADO.
AS THIS SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO NEBRASKA TONIGHT...DPVA FROM
IT COMBINED WITH A STRONG INCREASE IN THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET
SHOULD FIRE AN MCS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA. AN IMPORTANT POINT HERE TO
NOTE...WHERE THIS MCS TRACKS TONIGHT LOOKS TO HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS IN
HOW OUR HEAVY RAIN SETS UP FOR THU/THU NIGHT AND POSSIBLE SEVERE
CHANCES THU EVENING. THIS IS NICELY SEEN IN 10.03Z AND 10.09Z SREF
MEMBERS...AS WELL AS AMONGST RUN TO RUN TRENDS OF DETERMINISTIC
MODELS. THE 10.12Z NAM WANTS TO TRACK THE MCS NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHWEST MN BY 18Z THU. HOWEVER...FOLLOWING MORE OF A NORMAL
CORFIDI TO FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTOR APPROACH...THE MCS
SHOULD MOVE MORE EAST WHICH IS NICELY REFLECTED IN THE 10.00Z NSSL
WRF...10.12Z GFS/REGIONAL CANADIAN. A MORE EASTWARD APPROACH KEEPS
THE CURRENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN SOUTHERN IA FROM LIFTING AS FAR
NORTH...WHICH IN TURN WOULD HELP SET UP THE STRONG FRONTOGENESIS
ZONE THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY FARTHER SOUTH.
WHILE THAT MCS IS DEVELOPING TONIGHT...A WARM ADVECTION WING OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER SHOULD FORM OVER IOWA OVERNIGHT AND
LIFT NORTH INTO SECTIONS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WING OF
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH ON THURSDAY...WITH THE
PRECIPITATION EXPANDING OVERALL AS THE SHORTWAVE IN NEBRASKA MOVES
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONALLY...PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOOTS UP
TO AROUND 2 INCHES IN THE AFTERNOON...PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR THE
SHORTWAVE TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION AND EVEN HEAVY AT THAT. THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL ACT TO SATURATE THE SOILS...PRECONDITIONING THEM
FOR FLOODING PERHAPS AS EARLY AS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY COULD BE QUITE THE RAW DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...EXCEPT SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 18. NORTH OF THE FRONT...A BRISK NORTHEAST WIND
DRAWING IN LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL ALLOW FOR WET-BULBING. COOLED
HIGHS A BIT AS A RESULT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015
...FLOODING AND OTHER SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT...
THURSDAY NIGHT REMAINS THE MAJOR FOCUS FOR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
IMPACTS. THERE REMAINS STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THE CURRENT UTAH
SHORTWAVE TO COME ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT...PHASING AS WELL
WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY IN EASTERN
WASHINGTON. THE WHOLE SITUATION LOOKS SO SIMILAR TO A WINTER
SYNOPTIC STORM SYSTEM...EXCEPT THIS IS SUMMER AND WERE DEALING WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 2 INCHES AND UNSTABLE AIR. ALL MODELS SHOW
A JET COUPLING SCENARIO WITH A STRONG FRONTOGENESIS/FRONTOLYSIS
ZONE SETTING UP. THE CIRCULATION WILL LIKELY PICK UP INSTABILITY
FROM THE SOUTH...CAUSING THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ON
THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONTOGENESIS AND FRONTOLYSIS. THIS ZONE
HAS DEFINITELY DRIFTED SOUTH IN THE ENTIRE 10.12Z MODEL GUIDANCE...
WITH A CONSENSUS ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL RUNS SUCH AS THE DOWNSCALED NAM
ARE PRODUCING AS MUCH AS 4 TO 7 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL IN THE
FRONTOGENESIS ZONE. HOWEVER...ITS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THIS AXIS MAY
SHIFT NORTH OR SOUTH. AS A RESULT...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUED
ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE AXIS. ITS POSSIBLE THE
WATCH MAY NEED A TIER OF COUNTIES EXPANSION SOUTHWARD...PARTICULARLY
IF THE 10.12Z REGIONAL CANADIAN PANS OUT. MORE ON THE HYDROLOGY
IMPACTS BELOW IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION. BESIDES FLOODING...THERE
IS ALSO A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF US
HIGHWAY 18. DURING THE EVENING HOURS...THE WARM FRONT MAY LIFT AS
FAR NORTH AS THAT HIGHWAY...AS SUGGESTED IN THE 10.12Z
CANADIAN/ECMWF/NAM. IF SO...THE ENVIRONMENT HAS VERY FAVORABLE
SHEAR FOR ROTATING STORMS AND EVEN TORNADOES. THE PROBLEM MAY BE
THE CAPE WHICH IS MUCH HIGHER TO THE SOUTH NEAR I-80. THUS THE
SLIGHT RISK ON SPCS DAY 2 OUTLOOK.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO DEPART THE PRECIPITATION QUICKER ON
FRIDAY...IN RESPONSE TO THE PHASED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING AWAY FROM
THE REGION AND BRINGING IN SUBSIDENCE. FOLLOWED SUIT BUT DID KEEP
SOME LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
10.12Z ECMWF/GFS LINGERING AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER WESTERN WI.
CLOUDS STILL MAY TAKE AWHILE TO CLEAR...THOUGH...GIVEN SUBSIDENCE
AND TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THESE CLOUDS WILL HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN. MOST OF THE CLEARING SHOULD START TO OCCUR FRIDAY
NIGHT...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF I-90.
FOR THE WEEKEND...MUCH OF SATURDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY WITH THE
AREA DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACTIVE WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE PUSHED SOUTH TOWARDS I-70.
HOWEVER...FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
ROLL BACK INTO THE REGION. THESE ARE CAUSED BY A SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE AREA...BRINGING THE
WARM FRONT AND THE MOIST...UNSTABLE GULF OF MEXICO AIR WITH IT.
STILL SOME DISAGREEMENTS WITH THE MODELS ON THE CONVECTION...BUT THE
10.12Z CANADIAN/ECMWF BOTH WANT TO BRING A STRIPE OF 1-2 INCHES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WOULD ONLY EXACERBATE ANY RIVER
FLOODING. SOMETHING TO WATCH...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ECMWF
CONSISTENCY. THE 10.12Z GFS HAS TRENDED A BIT MORE WET AS WELL. MAY
NEED TO ALSO WATCH SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL AS THE ECMWF SHOWS DECENT 0-
6KM/0-3KM SHEAR.
NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO FEATURE MOSTLY A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN U.S. UNTIL ABOUT MIDWEEK WHEN TROUGHING FORMS OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN U.S. TO BUMP UP RIDGING DOWNSTREAM. THE TRICK IS TIMING
SHORTWAVES THROUGH THIS FLOW THAT CAN HELP TRIGGER SHOWERS AND
STORMS. RIGHT NOW THE GFS/CANADIAN AND ECMWF DO NOT AGREE AT ALL ON
WHEN...THUS THE FORECAST BROAD-BRUSHES 20 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCES.
WITH THE HIGH ZONAL FLOW...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR
SEASONABLE NORMS...AND BRIEF HUMID PERIODS AS SHORTWAVES PULL THE
MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT BUT WE WILL HAVE
TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING AND LIFTING
NORTHWARD OUT OF CENTRAL IOWA. AT THIS TIME...THINKING IS THAT THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL HOLD OFF AT THE TAF SITES UNTIL THE 14-15
Z TIMEFRAME. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS ARRIVING EARLIER BUT THE
MAIN FORCING FOR THE STORMS IS FOCUSED FURTHER TO THE SOUTH UNTIL
AFTER 12Z. FROM MID THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...LOOK
FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS WITH VISIBILITIES FALLING
TO AROUND 2SM MILES IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE WAS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD THESE DETAILS TO THE FORECAST YET.
OVERALL...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE RULE AT THE TAF
SITES THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS
MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE 1
TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED 6 INCH
AMOUNTS. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE AREA FROM SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN IS UNDER THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL. HALF OF THIS RAINFALL COULD OCCUR IN A 3-6
HOUR TIME PERIOD BETWEEN LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY
EVENING...LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING. ADDITIONALLY...ALL THIS RAIN
WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES. CONTIGENCY FORECASTS SUGGEST
MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOOD STAGE REMAIN LIKELY FOR MOST RIVERS WHERE
THE HEAVIEST RAIN FALLS...EXCEPT THE MISSISSIPPI WHICH SEEMS
LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING. NOT ALL WEATHER EVENTS
ARE THE SAME...BUT THE AXIS AND AMOUNTS COULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO
THE SEPTEMBER 22-23 2010 EVENT.
RIVER BASINS CURRENTLY OF CONCERN INCLUDE BLACK...TREMPEALEAU...
BUFFALO...ROOT...ZUMBRO...CEDAR AND MISSISSIPPI.
ADDITIONALLY...WE NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON ADDITIONAL RAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WHICH COULD EITHER SLOW THE DROP OF
RIVERS OR EXACERABATE FLOODING CONCERNS. THERE ARE HINTS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES POSSIBLE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR WIZ017-029-034-042>044.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR WIZ032-033-041.
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR MNZ079-086>088-094>096.
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR IAZ008-009.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
HYDROLOGY...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
834 AM MDT THU JUN 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT. A QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING TO
ACCOUNT FOR WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE STANLEY BASIN WHICH
SHOULD BURN OFF BY AROUND NOON AND DECREASE THE CLOUD COVER AND
REMOVE ANY PRECIP CHANCES FROM THE SNAKE PLAIN THIS MORNING. WE ARE
STILL EXPECTING AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE HIGHLANDS...A
FEW WHICH MAY PRODUCE HEAVY SHOWERS DUE TO THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. HUSTON
THE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR ALL OF THE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
EASTERN IDAHO WILL KEEP MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD COLORADO AND THE FOUR
CORNERS. MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN HIGHLANDS. THE MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING
SOMEWHAT ON STORM COVERAGE. THE NAM IS THE SKIMPIEST WITH
DEVELOPMENT CONFINED TO AROUND BEAR LAKE. THE OTHER MODELS INCLUDING
THE HRRR ARE A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS BUT A FOCUS AROUND BEAR LAKE.
ACTIVITY AROUND THERE STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL...BUT THE THREAT IS QUITE A BIT LOWER THAN
RECENT DAYS. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE A FEW STRAY SHOWERS AND
STORMS AROUND HAILEY. IT LOOKS LIKE THE WIND WILL BE OUT A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION...5-15 MPH WITH SOME POCKETS CLOSER TO 20 MPH. IT`S NOT A
LOT BUT ENOUGH FOR IMPACTS ON AMERICAN FALLS RESERVOIR...WHICH IS
WHERE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BY MIDNIGHT...WE SHOULD BR DRY EVEN IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER. ANOTHER
MILD DAY IS ON TAP FOR US...70S AND 80S EXCEPT FOR WHERE CLOUDS MAY
HOLD TEMPERATURES BACK ABOUT 10 DEGREES. KEYES
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. WE WILL SETTLE INTO A
MORE WESTERLY/PACIFIC FLOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE STORM
TRACK WILL REMAIN NORTH OF US...BUT HOW FAR NORTH REMAINS AN
ISSUE. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THROUGH THE WEEKEND THAT A FEW STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE DIVIDE...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY
NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER. IT THE STORM ACROSS CANADA ENDS UP
FARTHER NORTH...WE MAY NOT SEE ANYTHING EVEN NEAR ISLAND PARK AND
MONIDA PASS. THERE IS EVEN MORE DISAGREEMENT NEXT WEEK WITH
ANOTHER STORM FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHERN CANADA. THE GFS SWINGS IT
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT JUST
OFFSHORE OF VANCOUVER ISLAND. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THOUGH WE SHOULD
SEE AN UPTICK IN MOISTURE...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SHOWERS AND
STORMS BUT NOTHING WE`VE SEEN RECENTLY. WE DID MAINTAIN THAT
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTH BUT STARTING TRIMMING THINGS BACK
FARTHER SOUTH AFTER MONDAY. WE SHOULD SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES...REMAINING AT OR JUST ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
MID JUNE. KEYES
&&
.AVIATION...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH UTAH TODAY. THIS
WILL PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST IDAHO.
MOST TAF SITES WILL BE UNAFFECTED. ANY CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR.
VALLE
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH UTAH TODAY.
THIS WILL PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST IDAHO.
A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT
MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. VALLE
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
IDZ021.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1149 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
EAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS... WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FROM WISCONSIN INTO NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. MEANWHILE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST FROM IOWA TO SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
RAIN CHANCES WILL TEMPORARILY DIMINISH OR END FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH OF THE STATE... BUT
INCREASE AGAIN FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT COMES
BACK NORTH AGAIN.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1149 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015
INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY...INCLUDING PUTTING LIKELY POPS OVER THE
SOUTHERN CWA. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH INTO THE CWA
THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...AND BEING NORTH
OF THE WARM FRONT THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THE INSTABILITY WILL
STRUGGLE SO THUNDERSTORM SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED MUCH OF THE DAY.
THERE COULD BE AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE TOWARD 00Z NEAR I-94 AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET APPROACHES AND INSTABILITY BUILDS. THESE I-94 STORMS
COULD ALSO TREND STRONGER. STILL BELIEVE THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN MOVES IN THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015
TWO THINGS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: THE FIRST WILL BE FOR SCATTERED
DISCRETE STRONG TO SVR CELLS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SW CORNER OF LWR MI
THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN RECENTLY ACTIVE NARROW WEST-EAST CORRIDOR NEAR
THE WARM FRONT. THERE WERE SEVERAL REPORTS OF SVR HAIL/WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY ACROSS NRN IL/IN INTO EXTREME SE LWR MI. THIS CORRIDOR IS
SHOWN TO DRIFT BACK SLOWLY NORTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HRRR AND
NSSL WRF SHOWING CONVECTIVE INITIATION AFTER 18Z SOUTH OF GRR IN THE
VAN BUREN/KALAMAZOO/CALHOUN COUNTY AREAS WHERE SFC CAPES RISE TO
1000- 2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON.
THE OTHER THING TO WATCH FOR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
IS ANY CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS MOVING EAST FROM THE ERN IA/SRN WI/NRN
IL AREA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE IMPRESSIVE TODAY WITH 40-60KT
SHOWN FOR 0-6KM. THIS SUPPORTS ORGANIZED CONVECTION RIDING EAST
ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT INTO SRN LWR MI WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF STRONG DAMAGING WINDS.
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY IN ADDITION TO A CONTINUED SVR
WEATHER THREAT RIDING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...A HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL DEVELOPS AS 40-50 KT SWLY LLJ DEVELOPS FROM THE
QUAD CITIES TOWARD NRN LWR MI WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES. THE SET UP
FAVORS HEAVIEST RAIN NEAR AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 10 WHERE OVER 2
INCHES COULD FALL. GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH EXPECTED FARTHER
SOUTH.
THE SVR WEATHER THREAT FOR FRIDAY IS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR
AND MAINLY BEFORE 21Z WHERE INSTABILITY MAY HAVE A CHANCE TO
RECOVER BY EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE FROPA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015
THE SUN THROUGH MON TIME FRAME LOOKS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE THROUGH
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS FCST FOR THAT TIME FRAME.
SAT NIGHT LOOKS TO CONTINUE THE MAINLY DRY PERIOD THAT WE WILL SEE
ON SAT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. UPPER RIDGING WILL BE IN THE
PROCESS OF MOVING OUT...AND IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE BIT TO SATURATE
THE AIR MASS ONCE AGAIN.
WE DO LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MOVE BACK IN DURING THE DAY ON
SUN AND CONTINUE THROUGH MON. WE WILL SEE THE MAIN TROUGH THAT WILL
BE AFFECTING THE DESERT SW FROM TODAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND EJECT TO
THE NE IN A SOMEWHAT SIMILAR FASHION TO THE WAVE COMING IN LATE
TONIGHT AND FRI. ANOTHER GOOD SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN AHEAD
OF THE WAVE...AND THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME DECENT INSTABILITY
TO BE PRESENT ON SUN. THE WAVE WILL MOVE BY ON MON...AND THE COLD
FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH DROPS DOWN ACROSS THE
MIDWEST.
WE HAVE DRIED THE FCST OUT A BIT FOR THE TUE AND TUE NIGHT TIME
FRAME. BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT IN PUSHING THE FRONT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
BY TUE INCREASES OUR THAT THE AREA WILL SEE A DRY DAY. THIS COULD
BE ANOTHER SHORT BREAK AS A SOMEWHAT ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AND WILL SEND SHORT WAVES THROUGH THE FLOW. THESE
SHORT WAVES COULD TOUCH OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS AS THEY RIDE ALONG
THE NEARLY STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINNING AGAIN ON WED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 753 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015
FOR THE MOST PART VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT
OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. IN AN ACTIVE WARM FRONTAL
PATTERN LIKE THIS IT IS ALWAYS DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN THE
SPECIFIC CONVECTIVE TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IF/WHEN TSTM
CLUSTERS IMPACT THE TERMINALS THERE MAY BE A PERIOD(S) OF IFR
WITH HEAVY RAIN AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME HAIL AND/OR STRONG
WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KTS.
CURRENTLY RADAR SHOWS A POSSIBLE MCV DRIFTING NORTHEAST FROM NW
IND AND THIS FEATURE COULD SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND TSTMS LATER
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON... ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF GRR
WHERE INSTABILITY INCREASES BY AFTERNOON. WE WILL ALSO BE WATCHING
UPSTREAM ACTIVITY OVER WI/IL LATER TODAY AS IT SHOULD TRACK EAST
ALONG THE WARM FRONT INTO SRN LWR MI.
MKG AND GRR MAY TREND MOSTLY MVFR LATE TONIGHT WHERE RAIN SHOULD
BECOME MORE PERSISTENT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015
THE MAIN CONCERN OVER LK MI NEXT 48 HOURS IS FREQUENT TSTMS AND
AREAS OF DENSE FOG. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF STRONGER SSW FLOW LATER
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY SOUTH OF MUSKEGON OTHERWISE OFFSHORE FLOW
SHOULD LIMIT WAVE HEIGHTS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF MUSKEGON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1149 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015
RIVER LEVELS ACROSS THE LOWER PENINSULA ARE RUNNING NEAR TO SOMEWHAT
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE UPCOMING SYSTEM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY WILL FEATURE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND THUS THERE ARE SOME FLOODING CONCERNS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES AND APPROACHING 2 INCHES
FOR THURSDAY-FRIDAY ARE CLIMATOLOGICALLY AT LEAST 90TH PERCENTILE
FOR THIS AREA FOR EARLY-MID JUNE... PERHAPS NEAR RECORD.
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL... AND AT LEAST SHORT DURATION AREAL FLOODING
ISSUES WHERE STORMS PERSIST. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS A LOW LEVEL JET INTERSECTING A WARM FRONT
PRODUCES CONVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT. A BAND OF OVER 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL APPEARS LIKELY. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR OVER CENTRAL OR NORTHERN MICHIGAN...
WHICH WOULD INCLUDE COUNTIES IN OUR NORTHERN CWA AS WELL AS WFO
GAYLORD`S AREA. INCREASED SOIL MOISTURE AND RIVER LEVELS AFTER THIS
EVENT WILL SET THE BASELINE FOR INCREASED HYDRO CONCERNS INTO NEXT
WEEK AS ADDITIONAL WAVES OF PRECIPITATION MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JK
SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...MEADE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
753 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
EAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS... WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FROM WISCONSIN INTO NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. MEANWHILE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST FROM IOWA TO SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
RAIN CHANCES WILL TEMPORARILY DIMINISH OR END FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH OF THE STATE... BUT
INCREASE AGAIN FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT COMES
BACK NORTH AGAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015
TWO THINGS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: THE FIRST WILL BE FOR SCATTERED
DISCRETE STRONG TO SVR CELLS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SW CORNER OF LWR MI
THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN RECENTLY ACTIVE NARROW WEST-EAST CORRIDOR NEAR
THE WARM FRONT. THERE WERE SEVERAL REPORTS OF SVR HAIL/WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY ACROSS NRN IL/IN INTO EXTREME SE LWR MI. THIS CORRIDOR IS
SHOWN TO DRIFT BACK SLOWLY NORTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HRRR AND
NSSL WRF SHOWING CONVECTIVE INITIATION AFTER 18Z SOUTH OF GRR IN THE
VAN BUREN/KALAMAZOO/CALHOUN COUNTY AREAS WHERE SFC CAPES RISE TO
1000- 2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON.
THE OTHER THING TO WATCH FOR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
IS ANY CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS MOVING EAST FROM THE ERN IA/SRN WI/NRN
IL AREA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE IMPRESSIVE TODAY WITH 40-60KT
SHOWN FOR 0-6KM. THIS SUPPORTS ORGANIZED CONVECTION RIDING EAST
ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT INTO SRN LWR MI WITH THE
POSSIBILITYOF STRONG DAMAGING WINDS.
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY IN ADDITION TO A CONTINUED SVR
WEATHER THREAT RIDING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...A HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL DEVELOPS AS 40-50 KT SWLY LLJ DEVELOPS FROM THE
QUAD CITIES TOWARD NRN LWR MI WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES. THE SET UP
FAVORS HEAVIEST RAIN NEAR AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 10 WHERE OVER 2
INCHES COULD FALL. GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH EXPECTED FARTHER
SOUTH.
THE SVR WEATHER THREAT FOR FRIDAY IS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR
AND MAINLY BEFORE 21Z WHERE INSTABILITY MAY HAVE A CHANCE TO
RECOVER BY EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE FROPA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015
THE SUN THROUGH MON TIME FRAME LOOKS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE THROUGH
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS FCST FOR THAT TIME FRAME.
SAT NIGHT LOOKS TO CONTINUE THE MAINLY DRY PERIOD THAT WE WILL SEE
ON SAT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. UPPER RIDGING WILL BE IN THE
PROCESS OF MOVING OUT...AND IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE BIT TO SATURATE
THE AIR MASS ONCE AGAIN.
WE DO LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MOVE BACK IN DURING THE DAY ON
SUN AND CONTINUE THROUGH MON. WE WILL SEE THE MAIN TROUGH THAT WILL
BE AFFECTING THE DESERT SW FROM TODAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND EJECT TO
THE NE IN A SOMEWHAT SIMILAR FASHION TO THE WAVE COMING IN LATE
TONIGHT AND FRI. ANOTHER GOOD SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN AHEAD
OF THE WAVE...AND THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME DECENT INSTABILITY
TO BE PRESENT ON SUN. THE WAVE WILL MOVE BY ON MON...AND THE COLD
FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH DROPS DOWN ACROSS THE
MIDWEST.
WE HAVE DRIED THE FCST OUT A BIT FOR THE TUE AND TUE NIGHT TIME
FRAME. BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT IN PUSHING THE FRONT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
BY TUE INCREASES OUR THAT THE AREA WILL SEE A DRY DAY. THIS COULD
BE ANOTHER SHORT BREAK AS A SOMEWHAT ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AND WILL SEND SHORT WAVES THROUGH THE FLOW. THESE
SHORT WAVES COULD TOUCH OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS AS THEY RIDE ALONG
THE NEARLY STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINNING AGAIN ON WED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 753 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015
FOR THE MOST PART VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT
OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. IN AN ACTIVE WARM FRONTAL
PATTERN LIKE THIS IT IS ALWAYS DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN THE
SPECIFIC CONVECTIVE TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IF/WHEN TSTM
CLUSTERS IMPACT THE TERMINALS THERE MAY BE A PERIOD(S) OF IFR
WITH HEAVY RAIN AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME HAIL AND/OR STRONG
WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KTS.
CURRENTLY RADAR SHOWS A POSSIBLE MCV DRIFTING NORTHEAST FROM NW
IND AND THIS FEATURE COULD SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND TSTMS LATER
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON... ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF GRR
WHERE INSTABILITY INCREASES BY AFTERNOON. WE WILL ALSO BE WATCHING
UPSTREAM ACTIVITY OVER WI/IL LATER TODAY AS IT SHOULD TRACK EAST
ALONG THE WARM FRONT INTO SRN LWR MI.
MKG AND GRR MAY TREND MOSTLY MVFR LATE TONIGHT WHERE RAIN SHOULD
BECOME MORE PERSISTENT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015
THE MAIN CONCERN OVER LK MI NEXT 48 HOURS IS FREQUENT TSTMS AND
AREAS OF DENSE FOG. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF STRONGER SSW FLOW LATER
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY SOUTH OF MUSKEGON OTHERWISE OFFSHORE FLOW
SHOULD LIMIT WAVE HEIGHTS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF MUSKEGON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1149 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015
RIVER LEVELS ACROSS THE LOWER PENINSULA ARE RUNNING NEAR TO SOMEWHAT
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE UPCOMING SYSTEM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY WILL FEATURE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND THUS THERE ARE SOME FLOODING CONCERNS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES AND APPROACHING 2 INCHES
FOR THURSDAY-FRIDAY ARE CLIMATOLOGICALLY AT LEAST 90TH PERCENTILE
FOR THIS AREA FOR EARLY-MID JUNE... PERHAPS NEAR RECORD.
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL... AND AT LEAST SHORT DURATION AREAL FLOODING
ISSUES WHERE STORMS PERSIST. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS A LOW LEVEL JET INTERSECTING A WARM FRONT
PRODUCES CONVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT. A BAND OF OVER 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL APPEARS LIKELY. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR OVER CENTRAL OR NORTHERN MICHIGAN...
WHICH WOULD INCLUDE COUNTIES IN OUR NORTHERN CWA AS WELL AS WFO
GAYLORD`S AREA. INCREASED SOIL MOISTURE AND RIVER LEVELS AFTER THIS
EVENT WILL SET THE BASELINE FOR INCREASED HYDRO CONCERNS INTO NEXT
WEEK AS ADDITIONAL WAVES OF PRECIPITATION MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...MEADE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
743 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 504 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015
HEAVY RAIN AND NEED FOR HEADLINES TONIGHT IS MAIN CONCERN. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES SLIDES EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. SFC
LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS THIS MORNING LIFTS ACROSS WI TONIGHT
AND OVER LOWER MICHIGAN BY FRIDAY MORNING. WARM FRONT...ESPECIALLY
ALOFT...COMES CLOSE TO SOUTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT BUT REALLY NEVER MAKES IT INTO THE CWA. THINK THIS STALLED
OUT WARM FRONT ALOFT WILL HOLD KEY IN HEAVIEST RAIN STAYING ONLY
OVER SOUTHERN MENOMINEE COUNTY OR EVEN JUST TO THE SOUTH.
EXPECT LARGE SCALE LIFT TO SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA AS EARLY AS
THIS AFTN AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE SPREAD NORTHEAST FM THE PLAINS. ALREADY SEEING EXPANDING
SHIELD OF RAIN OVER SOUTHWEST MN AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS OVER
SOUTHERN THIRD OF MN. HRRR/RAP/NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS THIS AFTN INDICATE
THICKENING MID CLOUDS /H7-H5/ WITH DECENT LIFT IN THAT MOIST LAYER.
DRY LOW-LEVELS WILL HOLD OFF LIGHT RAIN FOR THE NORTH CWA...BUT
PERSISTENT LIFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST LIGHT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTN INTO SOUTHERN CWA AS SHOWN BY LATEST HRRR AND RAP MODELS.
BOOSTED SKY COVER AND BROUGHT SCT SHRA OVER MUCH OF SOUTH HALF OF
CWA AND EVEN SLIGHT CHANCES TO THE NORTH. KEWEENAW SHOULD STAY DRY
ALL DAY...AND PERHAPS ALL THE WAY THROUGH DURATION OF THE SYSTEM
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MOISTURE TRANSPORT RAMPS UP CONSIDERABLY AHEAD
OF MAIN SHORTWAVE ARRIVAL BUT THINK MAJORITY OF THE STRONGEST
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL STAY ALONG THE WARM FRONT ALOFT AT H85-H7.
LACK OF INSTABILITY ALOFT MAY ALSO ACT TO SHUNT HEAVIER RAIN TO THE
SOUTH AS WELL. MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAGNITUDE IS VERY IMPRESSIVE
THOUGH AND BELIEVE THERE IS OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTH OF ADVECTION TO
NUDGE THE WARM FRONT ALOFT AND MAX WARM AIR ADVECTION ALONG THE
BOUNDARY NORTH ENOUGH TO BRING HEAVIER QPF INTO AT LEAST MENOMINEE
COUNTY. THIS WOULD OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE SFC-H85 LOW
AND ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF SFC LOW OVER
WISCONSIN.
00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM-REGIONAL AND HIGHER RES GUIDANCE FM THE NSSL
WRF AND MORE THAN HALF OF THE NCAR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS POINT TO THAT
IDEA WITH HEAVIEST QPF AFTER 06Z AND PROBABLY AFT 09Z AND ONLY
LASTING TIL AROUND 12Z. GFS REALLY HAS TRENDED THIS WAY WITH ITS
LAST FEW RUNS. ON THE FLIP SIDE WOULD BE THE NCEP HIGH RES
GUIDANCE...KEEPING MAJORITY OF HEAVIER QPF JUST SOUTH OF MENOMINEE
COUNTY AND THE 06Z NAM REALLY TRENDING TOWARD LESS QPF OVER ALL BUT
FAR SOUTHERN MENONINEE COUNTY. ALL THAT SAID...MODEL TRENDS WITH
NORTH TO SOUTH EXTENT OF LIGHTER RAIN AND ALSO STRIPE OF HEAVIER
RAIN HAVE BEEN DIZZYING OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. CASE IN POINT IS THE
DPROG/DT OF THE RUN TOTAL QPF FM THE NAM ENDING AT 15Z ON FRIDAY.
18Z RUN ON 10 JUNE SHOWED OVER 2 INCHES AS FAR NW AT CRYSTAL FALLS
AND IRON MOUNTAIN...BUT NOW SHOWS BARELY ANY QPF AT CRYSTAL FALLS
WITH THIS 06Z RUN. GEM FOR LONGEST TIME WAS MAINLY SOUTH OF
MENOMINEE COUNTY WITH HEAVIER QPF...BUT JUST WITH 00Z RUN SHIFTED
FARTHER NORTH. ECMWF AND GFS HAVE BEEN MORE OR LESS PEGGING
NORTHEAST WI INTO SOUTH CENTRAL UPR MICHIGAN FOR HEAVIER STRIPE OF
QPF SINCE 12Z/9 JUNE RUN WITH MAIN CHANGES TYING TO HOW FAR NORTH
TO SPREAD LIGHTER QPF.
HAVE ISSUED A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK STATEMENT /ESFMQT/ FOR MENOMINEE
COUNTY TO ADDRESS THE HEAVY RAIN AND ASSOCIATED UNCERTAINTY. ALSO
HIGHLIGHTED POTENTIAL FLOODING THAT COULD OCCUR IF THE HEAVIER RAIN
SCENARIO ENDS UP VERIFYING. IN THAT CASE...PROBABLY LOOKING AT AT
LEAST 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN 3 HOURS...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE RFC FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE FOR MENONIMEE COUNTY. NEED AT LEAST 50 PERCENT
CONFIDENCE TO DO A WATCH...BUT GIVEN THE BACK AND FORTH TRENDS AND
AN OVERALL TREND TO BE MORE SUPRESSED WITH THE HEAVIEST QPF OFF THE
LATEST GUIANCE...WENT ESF ROUTE FOR NOW. ONE POSSIBLE KEY FOR THE
FORECAST MAY BE HOW MUCH RAIN OCCURS OVER SOUTHERN MN THROUGH 18Z
TODAY. SEEMS THAT IF THAT THERE HEAVIER RAIN VERIFIES THERE...
PROBABLY A BETTER SHOT OF SEEING HEAVY QPF OVER SCNTRL CWA TONIGHT.
BUT...THAT IS LOOKING AT THINGS IN A LINEAR FASHION WHICH AT TIMES
CAN BE EASY TO DO IN THIS PROFESSION...BUT NOT ALWAYS THE PROPER
COURSE OF ACTION. HOPEFULLY DAYSHIFT CAN GET SOME TRENDS TO BETTER
SEE IF HEAVY RAIN WILL IMPACT SCNTRL CWA OR WILL IT MISS CWA TO THE
SOUTH. DESPITE BEING WITHIN 24 HOURS NOW FM POSSIBLE HEAVY
RAIN...ESF ALLOWS FOR WIGGLE ROOM TO EITHER STEP INTO A WATCH OR
ADVISORY OR GO WITH NOTHING IF HEAVY RAIN AXIS SLIDES TO THE SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 513 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015
FRIDAY...EXPECT THE RAIN...MAINLY OVER THE SE HALF OF THE CWA...TO
END DURING THE MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
DYNAMICS MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THE FCST MAINTAINS CONTINUITY BY
FAVORING THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER NAM/REGIONAL-GEM/ECMWF COMPARED TO THE
FASTER GFS IN TIMING THE END OF THE PCPN. EXPECT SOME CLEARING LATER
INTO THE AFTERNOON CENTRAL AND EAST WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. INLAND TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT CLOUDS AND NE WINDS OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR
WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S NORTH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
FRI NIGHT AND SAT...SFC AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA. WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S. MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES SATURDAY WILL PUSH TEMPS TO AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S INLAND. LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL ALLOW
LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP KEEPING READINGS IN THE 60S ALONG THE LAKES.
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...A BROAD TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE NW CONUS
WITH RIDGING OVER THE SE WILL RESULT IN SW FLOW FROM THE PLAINS
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS SUGGEST A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING
FROM THE SRN PLAINS COULD SPREAD SHRA AND POSSIBLY A FEW TSRA INTO
THE WRN LAKES. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING/POSITION OF ANY
HEAVIER PCPN IS LIMITED...WITH PWATS CLIMBING AOA 1.5 INCH SOME
AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE.
MON-WED...AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS INTO NRN ONTARIO AND THE
MAIN SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE LAKES...EXPECT MAINLY
DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE EVEN IF ANY
WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA IN DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW. BY
WED...SHOWER CHANCES MAY INCREASE AS THE GFS/GEFS/ECMWF SUGGEST A
MID LEVEL AND SFC TROUGH WILL APPROACH OR MOVE INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 739 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN COULD
AFFECT KSAW THIS AFTN BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...BUT NO REDUCTION TO
VSBY IS EXPECTED. ANOTHER WAVE OF RAIN WILL SLIDE OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT...BUT ATTM EXPECT THE MAIN SHIELD OF RAIN
TO STAY SOUTH OF ALL THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 504 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. LOW OVER THE PLAINS
WILL EJECT ACROSS SOUTHERN WI AND LOWER MI ON FRIDAY...BUT WINDS
WILL ONLY BRIEFLY INCREASE /STILL LESS THAN 25KTS/. HIGH PRESSURE
FILLS BACK IN AFTER THE LOW EXITS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATER
FRIDAY AND THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
719 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH ON THE SOUTHWARD PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT FROM THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS
VERSUS THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK FROM THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS. THE CAMS
KEEP THE HEAVIEST RAIN TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT TO A SMALL PORTION OF
SOUTH CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI AND POINTS SOUTHWARD. THE AXIS
OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN IN OUR FA IS EXPECTED FROM NEAR FAIRMONT TO EAU
CLAIRE WHERE TWO TO THREE INCHES IS FORECAST. LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 4
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM ALBERT LEA TO AUGUSTA AND THIS WOULD BE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A TREND OBSERVED WITH THE
OVERNIGHT CAMS WAS FOR A QUICKER DEPARTURE ON THE RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM ALONG WITH NOT AS MUCH RAIN TODAY INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
HENCE...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH END TIME FOR SOUTH CENTRAL MN WAS
REDUCED TO 00Z WITH GOODHUE AND THE COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL WI
ENDING AT 06Z. WITH THE CONFIDENCE HIGH IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE
HEAVY RAINFALL...A FEW COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL MN INCLUDING
BROWN...WATONWAN...NICOLLET AND LE SUER WERE REMOVED FROM THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH. COMPLICATING MATTERS THIS MORNING ARE TWO MCV`S. ONE IS
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WHILE ANOTHER IS OVER NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. THERE MAY BE LITTLE LULL IN THE RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING IN
THE WAKE OF THE FIRST MCV AS IT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN MN. HOWEVER...
THE RAIN SHOULD QUICKLY FILL IN FROM MID MORNING ONWARD AHEAD OF THE
SECOND MVC AS THE FORCING REALLY EXPANDS ACROSS IA PER THALER QG.
THIS IS WHEN THE HEAVY RAIN WOULD REALLY BEGIN TO TAKE OFF ACROSS
FAR SOUTHERN MN. AS MENTIONED BEFORE...WITH THE EARLY DEPARTURE ON
WITH THE RAIN TONIGHT...POPS WERE DIMINISH MORE QUICKLY FROM WEST TO
EAST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015
LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION...
THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHEAST AND SHEAR OUT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD... WITH
THE LARGE SCALE FLOW SUBSEQUENTLY BECOMING ZONAL BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AND ESSENTIALLY REMAINING THAT WAY THROUGH THE BALANCE OF
THE FORECAST.
FORECAST ITEM/S/ OF CONCERN...
TODAY/S SYSTEM WILL BE TO OUR EAST ON FRIDAY... WITH JUST A SMALL
CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING PCPN IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE... MAIN WINDOWS FOR PCPN LOOK TO BE SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY THEN AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.
MODEL DISCUSSION/PREFERENCES...
THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE
OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THINGS... BUT DIFFER SOME IN THE DETAILS OF
HOW QUICKLY THE CUTOFF LOW SHEARS OUT AND THE EXTENT TO WHICH THE
CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH NOSES INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. HOWEVER... THE DIFFERENCES SHOULDN/T HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER IN OUR AREA... WHICH LOOKS TO BE
REASONABLY QUIET UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
SENSIBLE WEATHER EXPECTATIONS...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY... WITH CHANCES FOR
PCPN RETURNING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. PCPN POSSIBILITIES
COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY IF THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION IS CORRECT...
BUT OTHERWISE THE NEXT MAIN CHANCE LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY... WITH THE GFS REMAINING LESS PROGRESSIVE AND
THERE A BIT SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF.
DETAILED DISCUSSION FOR ITEM/S/ OF CONCERN...
RETURN FLOW AND BROAD WARM ADVECTION SHOULD HELP TO GET SOME PCPN
BACK INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY... ALTHOUGH THE ARE
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE IN THE DEGREE TO WHICH
INSTABILITY WORKS BACK INTO THE REGION. THE ECMWF ALSO DEVELOPS A
MORE SIGNIFICANT SURFACE WAVE WHICH IT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA SUNDAY MORNING. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND SHOWS AN
INVERTED TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGGING EAST SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. AT THIS POINT... SLIGHTLY PREFER THE GFS SOLUTION WITH THE
COMPACT QUICKLY MOVING SURFACE LOW FROM THE ECMWF LOOKING A BIT
CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED. ALTHOUGH THAT COULD CERTAINLY WIND UP BEING
A POSSIBILITY... DON/T LIKE THE IDEA OF LATCHING ONTO THAT AT THIS
POINT. THE GEM OFFERS SOMEWHAT OF A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THOSE
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS... AND THE ENSEMBLE SHOWS A FAIR DEGREE OF
SPREAD. ALL OF THIS POINTS TOWARD STICKING CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS
FORECAST... WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY BE THE CASE AGAIN WITH THE
SYSTEM FOR LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF FEATURES CONTINUES TO DIFFER BETWEEN THE GUIDANCE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE/UNCERTAINTY...
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH IN THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN
EVOLUTION... BUT LOW TO MODERATE IN THE TIMING AND SIGNIFICANCE OF
PCPN CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 718 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015
MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW MVFR/IFR CEILINGS DUE
TO THE PERSISTENT RAIN AND TOTAL COLUMN SATURATION. LAMP GUIDANCE
AND RAP 0.5KM CPD/S OFFER CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL OCCUR FOR ALL
BUT KSTC AND KAXN...WHICH ARE AT THE NORTH END OF THE RAIN
SHIELD. THEREFORE...INSERTED BKN008 FOR KMSP AND KEAU DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE THREAT FOR THUNDER IS REALLY
LIMITED AT THE TAF SITES TODAY ALTHOUGH ONE CAN`T RULE OUT A ROGUE
STORM...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AT KEAU. KEPT THE MENTION OUT AT
THIS POINT. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE TAF
SITES THIS EVENING WITH A RETURN TO VFR OVERNIGHT. MAINLY NE WINDS
TODAY AROUND 10 KNOTS ALONG WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS LATE THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
KMSP...RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THIS MORNING WITH MVFR CEILINGS BY LATE IN THE MORNING ALONG WITH
MVFR VISIBILITIES. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A PERIOD OF
CEILINGS BELOW 010 FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THEREFORE...INSERTED BKN008 FROM 21Z-02Z. THE LOW CEILINGS MAY
COME A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST DEPENDING ON HOW THE RAIN
DEVELOPS THIS MORNING. INCREASING NE WIND TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO
24 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS NE 10 KTS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA SAT NGT. WINDS SE 10 KTS.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT FOR MNZ078.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MNZ077-083>085-
091>093.
WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT FOR WIZ024>028.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
941 AM MDT THU JUN 11 2015
.UPDATE...
LOWERED POPS THROUGH THE DAY AS THE ONLY LIFTING MECHANISM WILL BE
A SHORTWAVE EXITING THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA BY 18Z...AND
AIRMASS WILL BE SLOWLY DRYING OUT. IN ADDITION...NOT MUCH
INSTABILITY TO SPEAK OF...THE SREF SHOWED POSSIBLE 500-1000 J/KG
OF SURFACE CAPE W OF KBIL. SOUNDINGS FROM THE RUC LOOKED GENERALLY
STABLE FROM KBIL E. WILL ONLY MENTION THUNDER W OF KBIL THIS
AFTERNOON. TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE DRY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING/ZONAL
FLOW BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WERE IN GOOD SHAPE TODAY...WITH A COOLER
DAY EXPECTED THAN YESTERDAY. DID RAISE DEWPOINTS TOWARD ADJMAV
WHICH WAS HANDLING THEM WELL THIS MORNING. AREAS IN SE MT MAY
HOLD ONTO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE DAY PER RAP SOUNDINGS.
ARTHUR
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI...
FIRST ISSUE ON THIS SHIFT WAS THE ONGOING FLOOD PRODUCTS. ONE
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE SHERIDAN FOOTHILLS AND THE OTHER AN
ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF CARBON AND STILLWATER COUNTIES.
THE LITTLE GOOSE AT BIG HORN HAS RECENTLY DROPPED BELOW FLOOD
STAGE. ALTHOUGH THE GOOSE CREEK AT SHERIDAN HAS NOT RESPONDED AS
ACUTELY AS RIVER FORECASTS SUGGESTED...IT IS STILL ON THE RISE AT
6.7 FT /FLOOD STAGE 7.5 FT/ AS OF 3 AM THIS MORNING. THERE WAS
SOME LINGERING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT
AS WELL. THEREFORE WE FEEL IT IS PRUDENT TO KEEP THIS WARNING
GOING AT THIS TIME.
WE HAVE NOT HAD ANY FURTHER REPORTS OF FLOODING OR IMPACTS IN
WESTERN CARBON OR SOUTHERN STILLWATER COUNTIES. WE BELIEVE ANY
IMPACTS HAVE BEEN MINOR. HOWEVER...WILLOW CREEK NEAR BOYD IS
RISING ABRUPTLY OVER THE LAST HOUR...SO OTHER SMALLER STREAMS MAY
ALSO STILL BE RESPONDING TO THE RAINFALL YET FROM LAST EVENING.
THEREFORE...TO BE PRUDENT WE WILL LET THIS ADVISORY RIDE UNTIL
WATER LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA CAN BE CHECKED AFTER SUNRISE.
RIDGING HAS OCCURRED BEHIND LAST EVENINGS WEATHER SYSTEM AND THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT BE AS UNSTABLE AS YESTERDAY. WE STILL HAVE
SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE HANGING IN PLACE WITH PWATS FROM .65 WEST TO
AROUND .80 INCHES IN THE EAST. ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS
EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF BILLINGS. FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ALOFT
FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO UPPER TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF CANADA INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ENTICE A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS DISAGREE JUST HOW WET OR DRY
THIS FRONT WILL BE...SO ITS NOT CLEAR HOW IT WILL PAN OUT...BUT
THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF A WEAK IMPULSE COMING OUT OF THE
MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE DAY TO AID LIFT ALONG THE FRONT. FOR
NOW...KEPT ISOLATED POPS TRANSITIONING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TOWARD THE EVENING...WITH SOME CHANCE POPS IN THE UPSLOPE
AREAS NEAR THE BIG HORNS AND FURTHER NORTHEAST NEAR THE BETTER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. BT
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH GLOBAL MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL PATTERN OVER THE US AND CANADA. 500MB
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL USHER IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE TREASURE STATE THIS WEEKEND.
AS FAR AS IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS CONCERNED...THERE IS A GENERAL
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALMOST EVERY DAY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AT THIS TIME HARD TO PINPOINT WHICH PARTICULAR DAY MAY HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
THAT DAY MAY BE NEXT TUESDAY. GFS IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN THE
STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA. LOOKING
AT THE CIPS TIME LAGGED ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...THERE HAS BEEN SOME
GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY IN BRINGING SOME MODERATE CAPE...ON THE
ORDER OF 1500 J/KG TO EXTREME NE WYOMING BY TUESDAY. PW VALUES
FROM THE SAME TOOL SHOW VALUES GREATER THAN ONE INCH OVER MUCH OF
EASTERN MONTANA...AS WELL. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS PERIOD IN THE
COMING DAYS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE PLEASANT INTO NEXT WEEK...GENERALLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S. SINGER
&&
.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS REMAIN NEAR KBIL...KSHR...KMLS AND KBHK AS OF
15Z. THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY. TODAY WILL
BE DRIER WITH MUCH LESS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAN ON WEDNESDAY.
VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. JKL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 078 056/085 056/076 053/072 051/071 054/075 055/081
2/W 00/U 31/B 23/T 23/T 33/T 32/T
LVM 081 050/084 046/076 045/073 047/069 048/076 049/081
2/T 02/T 11/B 22/T 22/T 33/T 33/T
HDN 079 054/087 056/078 053/074 051/074 054/077 053/083
1/B 00/U 32/T 33/T 23/T 43/T 33/T
MLS 075 054/086 057/077 055/075 051/073 054/073 054/077
1/B 00/U 32/T 33/T 23/T 44/T 33/T
4BQ 072 053/085 057/077 053/075 051/073 054/076 054/079
2/W 00/U 32/T 33/T 23/T 54/T 33/T
BHK 071 053/084 056/076 052/073 048/072 051/069 050/074
2/W 00/U 42/T 33/T 33/T 44/T 33/T
SHR 072 050/082 052/074 050/071 048/071 050/075 050/081
2/W 01/U 22/T 33/T 33/T 43/T 32/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
623 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS...HEAVY RAIN AND
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...THEN DECREASING COVERAGE OF
STORMS/SHOWERS TONIGHT.
A PARADE OF SHORT WAVES WERE NOTED ON THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY WITH THE REMNANTS OF BLANCA AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM
NEBRASKA WEST TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. 4 TO 8 DEG C H7 DEWPOINTS
WERE COMMON OVER A LARGE AREA. THE 00Z OAX SOUNDING HAD 1.53 PWAT
WITH INSTABILITY AT 3300J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS ERUPTED NEAR THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND ALSO ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
OVERNIGHT THESE STORMS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP AND PER THE RECENT
WSR-88D RADAR STRETCHED FROM SOUTHERN MN THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND IOWA INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS. ADDITIONAL
STORMS WERE LOCATED TO THE WEST OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA.
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS WERE TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE HEAVY
RAIN OVERNIGHT SAVE FOR THE 00Z NCEP HRRR WHICH WAS A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH...BUT STILL LACKED THE STORMS FARTHER SOUTH MORE INTO KS.
THE STORMS IN WESTERN NEBRASKA SHOULD TRACK FARTHER NORTH
COMPARED TO THE AREA WITH RAIN THAT FELL OVER THE LAST 12HRS.
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THE RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE OF THE JET
CONTINUES THROUGH 18Z IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. THE BEST OMEGA IS
OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN SHIFTS TOWARD SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA TOWARD 18Z...BUT LINGERS IN SOUTHWEST IOWA THROUGH 00Z.
THE H7 WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA CONTINUES IN
EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING...THEN SHIFTS MORE INTO IOWA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH 1.5 TO 2.0
INCHES OF PWAT. THE LOW LEVEL JET OF 40 TO 50 KTS WHICH HAS AIDED
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT CONTINUES THIS MORNING...BUT SHIFTS INTO
WESTERN IOWA. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS THIS MORNING AND THEN TREND
HIGHER POPS WITH THE DEFORMATION BAND AND ALONG THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY LOWERING SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE
EVENING.
THIS AFTERNOON...WILL NEED TO WATCH SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/SOUTHWEST
IOWA ALONG THE FRONT AS INSTABILITY INCREASES TO 2000-3000 J/KG AND
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE/ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DRIER AIR ARRIVES FOR FRIDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH
TOWARD SOUTHERN KANSAS. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTH ACROSS
KANSAS AND INTO NEBRASKA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL
RETURN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SPOTTY
STORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL
FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE MID 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST DURING
THE MORNING ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA. THUNDER IS MOST LIKELY AT
KOMA AND KLNK THROUGH ABOUT 15Z...WHILE KOFK SHOULD JUST SEE
SHOWERS. IFR CIGS WILL ACCOMPANY THE RAIN THIS MORNING...WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY 18Z WHEN CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR NEAR
FL040. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE MORE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z NEAR KLNK AND KOMA...BUT THOSE SHOULD STAY
SOUTH OF TAF SITES. OTHERWISE LIGHT EAST OR SOUTHEAST WINDS EARLY
SHOULD TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20KT BY 18Z...THEN SETTLE
BACK TO LESS THAN 10K AFTER 00Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN
PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS MVFR CIGS/VSBYS COULD DEVELOP AFTER 10Z AT ALL SITES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015
WILL LET THE CURRENT FFA REMAIN INTO EFFECT THIS MORNING WITH 1
TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IN SEVERAL SPOTS AND MATCHED UP WITH FSD/DMX
WITH OUR IOWA COUNTIES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED THIS
MORNING. CONVECTION CONTINUES...HOWEVER THE BETTER MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL RATES SHIFTING INTO IOWA. RAINFALL RATES ARE BEGINNING TO
INCREASE FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WITH THIS DEVELOPING AREA
OF STORMS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE IS ABUNDANT MOISTURE
AVAILABLE WITH CONTINUED SUPPORT FOR NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON FOR DIFFERENT PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE STORMS WILL EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS CAPABLE OF HEAVY
RAIN.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ050>053-
065>068-078-088>093.
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR IAZ043-055-
056-069-079-080-090-091.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...DERGAN
HYDROLOGY...ZAPOTOCNY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
753 AM PDT THU JUN 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...LINGERING MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A DRY...WESTERLY FLOW FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD WILL BRING EXPECTED HOT AND DRY JUNE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THROUGH
THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HIGH-
RES GUIDANCE. MAIN CHANGES INCLUDED REDUCING POPS FOR THE REST OF
THIS MORNING AND INCREASING POPS THIS EVENING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OF DEATH VALLEY NATIONAL PARK WHERE A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY SINK SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT
THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT SHOWERS/STORMS WILL IMPACT THE LAS
VEGAS VALLEY...HOWEVER THE LATEST HRRR DOES INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR OUTFLOW WINDS TO MOVE THROUGH FROM THE NORTH AROUND SUNSET. THIS
WOULD MAINLY BE AN IMPACT TO AVIATION...AS THE STRENGTH WOULD LIKELY
BE UNDER 30-35 MPH.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...VERY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY...GENERALLY UNDER 6 KTS...LIKELY FAVORING AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH
OF THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY IN THE BEATTY AND MORMON MESA CORRIDORS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BRING GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO THE
TERMINAL...MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 01Z-06Z. OUTSIDE OF THESE OUTFLOW
WINDS...WINDS SHOULD TURN TO A TYPICAL SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION
OVERNIGHT.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE VARIABLE 5-10 KTS MAINLY
FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIURNAL TERRAIN DRIVEN PATTERNS TODAY. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF LAS VEGAS
THAT COULD BRING GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE
AROUND KBIH AND KTPH.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
215 AM PDT THU JUN 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
AT 1 AM...THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF MOHAVE COUNTY REMAINED UNDER
THE GUN AS MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS ROLLED
THROUGH. A FEW RAIN GAGES IN THE AREA REPORTED AN INCH OF RAIN OR
BETTER WHERE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION FELL. ELSEWHERE, THINGS HAVE
QUIETED DOWN A BIT ALTHOUGH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION ARE NUMEROUS AND TRIGGERING A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS AS FAR
WEST AS BOULDER CITY AND HENDERSON.
MODELS TAKE THE LOW DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND SATELLITE CONFIRMS IT AS A COUNTER CLOCKWISE SPIN IS
APPARENT IN IR IMAGERY. THE MAIN LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA TODAY BUT TROUGHING WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY ALLOWING UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE EACH
DAY AS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS FORM IN A WEAKLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. WITH LESS MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO SLOWLY WARM HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING
ZONAL...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA TO
THE EAST. WESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP TO MIX OUT THE REMAINING MOISTURE
FROM BLANCA...SIGNALING A RETURN TO BENIGN WEATHER AND SETTING US UP
FOR A RAPID WARM UP EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO AGREE ON A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED ON THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST EMITTING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN DURING THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS WELL HELP
INCREASE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT ALL LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT...PROMOTING GOOD MIXING WHICH
WILL FURTHER DRY OUT ANY LINGERING MOISTURE AND BUMP AFTERNOON HIGHS
UP A FEW MORE DEGREES. AT THIS TIME...AFTERNOON HIGHS LOOK TO
CONSISTENTLY RUN 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-JUNE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION...WOLCOTT
SHORT TERM...SALMEN
LONG TERM...PULLIN
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1030 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1028 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015
CLEARING AS PROGRESSED SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER.
ANY SHOWERS HAVE EXITED FAR SE ND/WCNTRL MN AND REMOVED WEATHER
MENTION IN THAT AREA REST OF THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN. WEAK
SHORT WAVE UPSTREAM AND SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN AREAS FROM
NORTH OF BRANDON MANITOBA TO YORKTON IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHEAST.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH HEATING OF THE DAY TO GENERATE ISOLD TRW-
THAT IS PROGGED BY HRRR. KEPT 20 POPS MID AFTN TO EARLY EVE AS
PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. DID UP HIGHS TODAY SOME AS HRRR PEGS LOWER
80S IN THE CENTRAL RRV AND WITH TEMPS WARMING FAST WITH MUCH MORE
SUN TODAY IT LOOKS GOOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015
PRECIP CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST
HEADACHE FOR THE PERIOD.
WV LOOP SHOWS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO OUR SOUTH...AND MODELS
ALL HAVE THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO SOUTHERN MN AND IA TODAY. THE MAIN
SFC LOW AND FRONTS WILL BE WELL TO OUR SOUTH...WITH ONLY MAYBE THE
FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES GETTING SWIPED BY THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM.
MANY OF THE MODELS BREAK OUT SPOTTY SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CWA ALSO. THERE IS NOT MUCH TO HANG ON AT
THE SFC...WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS. HOWEVER...THERE IS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM IN CANADA...WHICH SHOULD IMPACT OUR CWA
LATER TODAY. EVEN PEAK HEATING WITH HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 70S
THIS AFTERNOON GIVES AROUND 500 J/KG MAX...SO THINK THAT ANY
ACTIVITY WILL BE NON SEVERE IF IT THUNDERS AT ALL. STILL ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE SOME ISOLATED POPS IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DIURNAL AND DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET.
TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY QUIET AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
EXITS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND DECREASING CLOUDS WE SHOULD DROP DOWN INTO THE LOW
TO MID 50S. FRIDAY WILL ALSO BE VERY TRANQUIL WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
BRIEFLY BUILDING OVER THE REGION. SOUTH WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...AND WITH GOOD MIXING AND
SUNSHINE TEMPS SHOULD GET CLOSE TO THE 80 MARK AT LEAST IN THE
WESTERN CWA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...FLOW STARTS TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. WEAK
SHORTWAVES ARE HARD TO PICK OUT AT THIS POINT...BUT MODELS ARE
PRETTY CONSISTENT ON BRINGING THE SFC TROUGH FROM WESTERN ND INTO
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE ON SATURDAY...THEN SLOWLY
APPROACHING THE WESTERN CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE SOME
PRECIP ACTIVITY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN EXACTLY HOW FAST THE PRECIP MOVES INTO OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES AND HOW STRONG CONVECTION WILL BE. FOR NOW STARTED
RAMPING UP POPS FOR THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPS THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND WILL
BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.
SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT BRINGING IN
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH SOME THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND COOLER TEMPS BEHIND IT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MONDAY RIGHT NOW LOOKS MAINLY DRY UNDER SFC HIGH PRESSURE...ALTHOUGH
NOT TERRIBLY CONFIDENT IN ANY PERIOD GIVEN THE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. FOR EXAMPLE...THE GEM/GFS/ECMWF ALL
INDICATE A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DURING THE TUE/WED PERIOD
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT ALL DIFFER ON TIMING/PLACEMENT. THE
GENERAL PATTERN DOES SUGGEST INTERMITTENT CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE
STRONGER MID/UPPER FLOW OVER THE REGION...WHICH IS TYPICAL FOR MID
JUNE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE HIT AND
MISS. WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW AND AMEND AS NEEDED.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1105 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR INTERSTATE 80 THIS
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY...ACTING AS THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON
FRIDAY...KEEPING MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA IN A
VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. ANOTHER...AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MORNING AND
MIDDAY HOURS SATURDAY. LOWER HUMIDITY AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL FOLLOW FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT. PERSISTENT WESTERLY FLOW FROM THE WESTERN GLAKES TO
PENNSYLVANIA WILL BRING A FEW MORE WEAK DISTURBANCES AND CHANCES
FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EASILY ANALYZED AT 14Z...FROM THE NORTHERN
POCONOS...WEST TO NEAR KIPT AND KDUJ. A SLIGHT SWD DRIFT TO THIS
FRONT WILL OCCUR THROUGH TODAY.
MORE TRUST IN HRRR MODEL /AND IT`S TIME AND PLACEMENT OF
CONVECTION/ THAN YESTERDAY/S MIDDAY RUNS...BASED ON MID LEVEL
TEMPS/CAPPING BEING ABOUT 2-3C LOWER. ALL OTHER OPERATION GUIDANCE
AND 03Z SREF POINTS TWD WCENT PENN...EAST TO THE MID SUSQ VALLEY
AND SRN POCONOS /NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF I-80/ BEING THE CROSS-
HAIRS FOR SCATTERED/TALL PULSE TSRA. FIRST TIME THIS YEAR...I
RECALL SEEING SOME LOW END CHANCES /30-40 PERCENT/ FOR CAPE ABOVE
3000 J/KG ON THE SREF HERE IN CENTRAL PENN.
VERY INTERESTING TO NOTE THE DISTINCT COLD POOLS DEVELOPED BY THE
HRRR FROM THE CONVECTION DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WE KNOW THAT STORMS WILL FAIRLY EASILY BREAK THE MID LEVEL CAP
THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL SEE TSRA ON RADAR. THE BILLION DOLLAR
QUESTION IS EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE.
FIRST STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR I-80
AND INVOF KDUJ AND KFIG BETWEEN 17-18Z...THEN PROPAGATE EAST OR
ESE DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD POOLS.
40KT LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BE DYING DOWN TO JUST
25-30KTS THROUGH THE DAY. CAPES FROM SOME MDLS ARE GIANT -
2500-3000 J/KG IN THE CENTRAL COS. THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTHWARD
FROM IT/S SEEMING CURRENT W-E POSITION OVER THE NRN TIER. MDLS
AGREE THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ONLY SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD KEEPING
THE W-E ORIENTATION. THEREFORE...THE HIGHER 40 POPS WILL BE DRAWN
OVER FIG-UNV-SEG-MUI.
THE STRONGER CAP IN PLACE OVER THE SRN TIER...AND GREATER DISTANCE
FROM THE FRONT WILL LIKELY THWART MOST ATTEMPTS TO GENERATE DEEP
CONVECTION THERE. SO...LOWER POPS THERE. THE LACK OF MOISTURE
NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP POPS LOWER IN THE NORTHERN TIER AS
WELL.
MAXES WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER OF COURSE. BUT THE
MORNING CROP OF CLOUDS SHOULD BE MAINLY MID CLOUDS AND WILL ERODE
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND SHOW SOME BIG BREAKS. NOT CLOUDY
ENOUGH TO KEEP THE ALMOST FULL JUNE SUN FROM HEATING THINGS UP
SIGNIFICANTLY. PLACES ALONG THE MASON- DIXON LINE WILL GET VERY
CLOSE TO 90F. HRRR SHOWS TEMPS NEAR 90F EVEN THROUGHOUT THE
VALLEYS OF CENTRAL PENN...WHILE THE NORTHERN MTNS GET CLOSE TO
80F
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
CONVECTION SHOULD WANE IN THE EARLY EVENING WITH NO SUPPORT FROM
ANY SIG JET STREAK OR LLVL WINDS/MOISTURE ADVECTION. FRONT SLIDES
NORTHWARD A BIT AND COULD MAKE A SPRINKLE IN THE N/W. MORE-
CERTAINLY...THE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL STAY MILD/WARM WITH MINS IN THE 60S.
HEIGHTS DO NOT CHANGE AT ALL...SO POPS SHOULD BE LOWER IN THE
S...BUT ELEVATED HEATING SURFACES - LIKE THE LAURELS - MAY PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT TO POP SCT T/SHRA. THE DEEP MIXING ON FRIDAY WILL PUSH
THE 8H TEMPS TO 20C. MAXES IN THE 90S ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 80S EVEN ON THE HILL TOPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE FRI-TUE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED
BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDING WWD FROM THE WRN ATLC OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS WILL FAVOR
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
FOCUSED WITHIN PLUME OF ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE/PWATS POOLING AROUND
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY
WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 90F EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. STRONG
HEATING OF A MOIST BLYR/60+ SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD SUPPORT SOME
WEAKLY FORCED DIURNAL CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH
POSSIBLE TRIGGER FOCUS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OR LEE SFC
TROUGH. A WEAKENING MID LVL TROUGH IS FCST TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST INTO SATURDAY AND SHOULD PUSH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALONG THE LOWER LAKES SWD INTO CENTRAL PA. SCT TSTMS
SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVG BOUNDARY WITH A MODEL
CONSENSUS FAVORING THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE
BUILDING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HOLD THE
WAVY/INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE FRONT INVOF THE MASON DIXON LINE. THERE
IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH DRY AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT
AS THE GEFS FCSTS A NOTABLE DROP IN PWATS SAT NGT-SUN BEFORE
ANOMALOUS MSTR/PWATS SURGE BACK INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN MCS TYPE COMPLEX MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA NEXT WEEK BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE DETAILS ESPECIALLY AT
THIS RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND
BECOME LOCATED NEAR INTERSTATE 80 THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
AREAS OF MVFR STRATO CU NORTH OF THE FRONT INVOF KBFD...AND AREAS
OF MVFR HAZE SOUTH OF THE FRONT...HAVE IMPROVED TO MAINLY VFR AS
OF 15Z.
THE STALLED SFC FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL PA COULD TRIGGER SCT MID
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING TSRA IN THE VICINITY OF KFIG- KUNV-
KSEG. HOWEVER...NO EXPLICIT MENTION IN THE TAFS DUE TO EXPECTED
RELATIVELY SPARSE COVERAGE AND UNCERTAIN TIMING.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS...MAINLY NW MTNS.
SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS...MAINLY SOUTH.
SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
MON...PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W MTNS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
657 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT
AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE
THURSDAY. THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD NORTH ONCE AGAIN FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WHEN SUMMERTIME HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WILL BE THE RULE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CONFLICTING SIGNALS ON CONVECTION TODAY...WITH LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY. FIRST OFF...CONFIDENCE IN NEAR-TERM/MESO MODEL
PERFORMANCE HAS BEEN TAINTED BY YESTERDAY/S QUESTIONABLE GUIDANCE
AS NOTED BY DAY AND EVENING SHIFTS. THEY SEEM TO BE DOING BETTER
HERE OVERNIGHT...ESP THE HI-RES ARW. SO...FOLLOWING THAT GUY DOWN
THE ROAD YIELDS VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION LATER TODAY.
HOWEVER...SPARSE BUT PERSISTENT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING UPSTREAM
THROUGH THE NIGHT. 40KT LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BE
DYING DOWN TO JUST 25-30KTS THROUGH THE DAY. CAPES FROM SOME MDLS
GIANT - NEAR 2000 IN THE CENTRAL COS. BUT OTHERS YIELD ONLY
500-800. STILL PLENTY OF CAPE FOR THUNDER AND POSSIBLE
DOWNDRAFTS/GUSTINESS...BUT SEVERITY IS CERTAINLY IN QUESTION
THEN. THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTHWARD FROM IT/S SEEMING CURRENT
W-E POSITION OVER THE NRN TIER. MDLS AGREE THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL
MOVE ONLY SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD KEEPING THE W-E ORIENTATION.
THEREFORE...THE HIGHER 40 POPS WILL BE DRAWN OVER FIG-UNV-SEG-MUI.
THE BIGGER CAP IN PLACE OVER THE SRN TIER WILL LIKELY THWART MOST
ATTEMPTS TO GENERATE DEEP CONVECTION THERE. SO...LOWER POPS THERE.
THE LACK OF MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP POPS LOWER IN
THE NORTHERN TIER AS WELL. MAXES WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER OF COURSE. BUT THE MORNING CROP OF CLOUDS SHOULD BE
MAINLY MID CLOUDS AND WILL SHOW SOME BIG BREAKS. NOT CLOUDY
ENOUGH TO KEEP THE ALMOST FULL JUNE SUN FROM HEATING THINGS UP
SIGNIFICANTLY. PLACES ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE WILL GET VERY
CLOSE TO 90F...WHILE THE NORTHERN MTNS GET CLOSE TO 80F. THE
CLOUDS AND POSS TS/SHRA IN THE CENTRAL STRIPE MAY KEEP THEM DOWN
CLOSER TO 80...BUT NOT COUNTING OUT THE JUNE SUN AND CALL FOR
MAXES IN THE M80S IN THE VALLEYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
CONVECTIONS SHOULD WANE IN THE EARLY EVENING WITH NO SUPPORT FROM
ANY SIG JET STREAK OR LLVL WINDS/MOISTURE ADVECTION. FRONT SLIDES
NORTHWARD A BIT AND COULD MAKE A SPRINKLE IN THE N/W. MORE-
CERTAINLY...THE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL STAY MILD/WARM WITH MINS IN THE 60S.
HEIGHTS DO NOT CHANGE AT ALL...SO POPS SHOULD BE LOWER IN THE
S...BUT ELEVATED HEATING SURFACES - LIKE THE LAURELS - MAY PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT TO POP SCT T/SHRA. THE DEEP MIXING ON FRIDAY WILL
PUSH THE 8H TEMPS TO 20C. MAXES IN THE 90S ARE EXPECTED IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 80S EVEN ON THE HILL TOPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE FRI-TUE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED
BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDING WWD FROM THE WRN ATLC OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS WILL FAVOR
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
FOCUSED WITHIN PLUME OF ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE/PWATS POOLING AROUND
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY
WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 90F EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. STRONG
HEATING OF A MOIST BLYR/60+ SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD SUPPORT SOME
WEAKLY FORCED DIURNAL CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH
POSSIBLE TRIGGER FOCUS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OR LEE SFC
TROUGH. A WEAKENING MID LVL TROUGH IS FCST TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST INTO SATURDAY AND SHOULD PUSH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALONG THE LOWER LAKES SWD INTO CENTRAL PA. SCT TSTMS
SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVG BOUNDARY WITH A MODEL
CONSENSUS FAVORING THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE
BUILDING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HOLD THE
WAVY/INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE FRONT INVOF THE MASON DIXON LINE. THERE
IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH DRY AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT
AS THE GEFS FCSTS A NOTABLE DROP IN PWATS SAT NGT-SUN BEFORE
ANOMALOUS MSTR/PWATS SURGE BACK INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN MCS TYPE COMPLEX MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA NEXT WEEK BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE DETAILS ESPECIALLY AT
THIS RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO PA THIS MORNING...ACCOMPANIED
BY ISOLD SHRA ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS. CAN/T RULE OUT A BRIEF VIS
REDUCTION AT KUNV ARND 12Z BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR OUTPUT.
FURTHER NORTH...A PLUME OF PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE
NW MTNS COULD PRODUCE TEMPO MVFR CIGS THRU ARND 13Z. A BAND OF
STRONG WINDS ALOFT...COMBINED WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AT THE
SFC...SHOULD PRODUCE MARGINAL LLWS CONDS THRU ARND 12Z-13Z ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PA.
IMPROVING FLYING CONDS EXPECTED AFTER 13Z...AS ANY STRATOCU AT
KBFD LIFTS TO VFR AND DIMINISHING WINDS ALOFT END THE THREAT OF
LLWS ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL PA. STALLED SFC FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL PA COULD TRIGGER SCT LATE DAY AND EVENING TSRA IN THE
VICINITY OF KFIG-KUNV-KSEG. HOWEVER...NO EXPLICIT MENTION IN THE
TAFS DUE TO EXPECTED SPARSE COVERAGE AND UNCERTAIN TIMING.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS...MAINLY NW MTNS.
SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS...MAINLY SOUTH.
SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
MON...PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W MTNS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
918 AM MDT THU JUN 11 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 914 AM MDT THU JUN 11 2015
UPPER WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN SD/NE. STATIONARY BOUNDARY
IS DRAPED OVER THE EASTERN WY BORDER...AND SURFACE HIGH IS PUSHING
IN FROM THE NORTH. SHOWERS COVER MUCH OF WESTERN SD...WITH
NORTHEAST WY FAIRLY DRY FOR NOW. DEBATED CANCELING THE
WATCH...BUT HRRR AND NAM ARE SHOWING SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION
OVER WATCH AREA WITH MARGINAL CAPE AND WEAK SHEAR. MAY BE A HEAVY
SHOWER OR STORM THERE THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL KEEP WATCH AS IS
FOR NOW. EXPECT STRATIFORM PRECIP TO DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
TODAY AS HIGH MOVES IN. TEMPS ARE IN THE 50S...WITH EASTERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 KTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 326 AM MDT THU JUN 11 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE STORM SYSTEM NOW CROSSING ERN
NEB...AND CONTINUING ITS NE TRACK. SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES ARE ALSO
CROSSING ERN WY INTO SRN SD. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MOIST AND COOL
ERLY FLOW ACROSS SD ALONG THE N/NW SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE COLD
FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE CWA INTO NRN/CNTRL NEB. KUDX RADAR
SHOWING WIDESPREAD SHRA ACROSS NE AND MUCH OF WRN SD.
SHRA WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...BUT RAINFALL RATES
GENERALLY BE LIGHT TO MODERATE AT LEAST THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE
FOCUS OF PRECIP WILL HAVE A S/SEWD DRIFT AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
FORCING SHIFTS INTO NEB. COULD STILL SEE STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON OVER NE WY AND THE BLKHLS AREA. WITH STORM MOTIONS STILL
FORECAST TO BE VERY SLOW...WILL KEEP THE FFA GOING. HOWEVER A
GENERAL DECREASE IN PRECIP OVERALL IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTN AS HIGH
PRES/SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN. PRECIP SHOULD END AREAWIDE THIS EVNG. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S TODAY...AND LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
A MUCH QUIETER DAY IS EXPECTED FRIDAY. SUNSHINE WILL RETURN TO MUCH
OF THE CWA...WITH SOME CLOUDS STILL LINGERING OVER PORTIONS OF NE WY
AND SW SD. AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...RETURN FLOW
WILL SET UP ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS
TO THE AREA...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 70S.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 326 AM MDT THU JUN 11 2015
UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TO THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
PERSISTS THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES ALOFT. PERIODIC
SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS US/CANADIAN BORDER DRAGGING FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR/SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE.
.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT THU JUN 11 2015
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY...BUT COVERAGE WILL
DECREASE SLOWLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS
WILL OCCUR WITH DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/UPSLOPE FLOW. AREAS IFR
CIGS/VSBYS WILL OCCUR WITH PRECIPITATION. LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
ST/FG EXPECTED OVER/NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS
THE STORM SYSTEM PULLS AWAY.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR SDZ024>029-041-072-
074.
WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR WYZ054>058-071.
&&
$$
UPDATE...POJORLIE
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...HELGESON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
1042 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015
.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST GENERALLY LOOKS ON TRACK THIS MORNING...BUT A FEW
TWEAKS WILL BE MADE FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. THE HRRR DEVELOPS
SHOWERS OVER THE SMOKIES AND SW NC IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH A
NE MOVEMENT THAT TAKES THEM INTO THE VALLEY. WILL ADJUST POPS A
LITTLE IN THIS DIRECTION. CURRENT OBS TEMPS ARE WARMER THAN
FORECAST...AND WILL BUMP UP HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO IN SOME
SPOTS.
THE TYS ASOS APPEARS TO BE RUNNING WARM FOR TEMP AND
DEWPOINT...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
SITUATION AND REPORT FOR MAINTENANCE IF IT PERSISTS.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
223 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...THEN STALL OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON
FRIDAY. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS THAT COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT
THEY OCCUR. RUC/RAP IS DRY AS IS THE CMC AND ECMWF. THE NAM HAS
MINIMAL PRECIPITATION...THE HRRR KEEPS ON STARTING CONVECTION TOO
SOON AND FINALLY HAS DELAYED ANY CONVECTION UNTIL LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. ITS POSSIBLE THAT CAP AT 850 HPA ON KALY SOUNDING AND
EVEN STRONGER CAP AROUND 940 HPA ON KOKX SOUNDING MIGHT END UP
HOLDING. BASED ON TRENDS HAVE LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY...AND
CONVERTED OVER TO COVERAGE WORDING TO TRY TO EMPHASIZE THAT MORE
PEOPLE WILL NOT SEE SOMETHING THAN WILL SEE SOMETHING THIS
AFTERNOON.
STILL ON TRACK FOR INTERIOR AREAS TO REACH THE UPPER 80S-LOWER
90S. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S THOUGH WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES NEAR
THE AIR TEMPERATURE.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT
ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
FRONT STALLS THROUGH OR JUST S OF THE AREA TONIGHT. SHOWER/TSTMS
WILL WIND DOWN DURING THE EVENING AND SHOULD BE OVER MY MIDNIGHT.
WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN METRO NY/NJ WHERE LOWS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT ON FRI AND ALTHOUGH IT
WON`T BE AS HOT AS TODAY...IT WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER.
HUMIDITY WILL ALSO INCREASE UNDER A SLY FLOW. HAVE KEPT THE
MORNING DRY AS ANY ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN N AND W OF THE LOCAL
AREA...BUT CHANCES INCREASE FROM THE CITY N AND W WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL INCREASE DURING
THIS TIME. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST...SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
BRINGING DRIER WEATHER BACK INTO THE REGION.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE LOW CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY FOR THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...THEN CHANCE POPS EVERYWHERE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY.
DRIER WEATHER RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO
THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE
80S TO LOWER 90S...THEN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE TERMINAL REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE STALLING JUST TO THE SOUTH.
WIDELY SCT TSTMS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS
THE FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA. STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT
TIMING AND COVERAGE...SO STILL CARRY VICINITY MENTION RATHER THAN
SPECIFIC TERMINAL IMPACTS. DIRECT TSTM IMPACTS COULD BE SEVERE
WITH BRIEF G50KT POSSIBLE/IFR VSBY.
SW TO WSW WINDS 10-15G15-20 KT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME
VARIABILITY BETWEEN 240-290 AT KEWR/KTEB...ALSO AT KLGA BEFORE
SOUTHERLY SEA BREEZE MOVES IN LATE.
SEEING MVFR VSBY IN HAZE AT KHPN. HAZE ALOFT AT OTHER TERMINALS
SHOULD DESCEND TO GROUND LEVEL LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING...
AND MAY LINGER LONGER THAN FCST.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HAZE ALOFT. TIMING OF VCTS COULD BE OFF BY
AN HR OR TWO. DIRECT TSTM IMPACTS COULD INCLUDE G50KT AND IFR
VSBY.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HAZE ALOFT. WIND DIR VARIABLE BETWEEN
240-290 TRUE BEFORE SEA BREEZE ARRIVAL. TIMING OF VCTS COULD BE
OFF BY AN HR OR TWO. DIRECT TSTM IMPACTS COULD INCLUDE G50KT AND
IFR VSBY.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HAZE ALOFT. WIND DIR VARIABLE BETWEEN
240-290 TRUE THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING OF VCTS COULD BE OFF BY AN
HR OR TWO. DIRECT TSTM IMPACTS COULD INCLUDE G50KT AND IFR VSBY.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HAZE ALOFT. WIND DIR VARIABLE BETWEEN
240-290 TRUE THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING OF VCTS COULD BE OFF BY AN HR
OR TWO. DIRECT TSTM IMPACTS COULD INCLUDE G50KT AND IFR VSBY.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF VCTS COULD BE OFF BY AN HR OR
TWO. DIRECT TSTM IMPACTS COULD INCLUDE G50KT AND IFR VSBY.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HAZE ALOFT. TIMING OF VCTS COULD BE OFF BY
AN HR OR TWO.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.FRI...SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON TSTMS MAINLY NW OF NYC METRO...
WITH BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE. S-SW WINDS G20-25KT.
.SAT...COLD FRONT WILL BRING CHANCE OF TSTMS WITH MVFR OR LOWER
CONDS POSSIBLE. W WINDS G25KT.
.SUN-MON...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS
IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SW WINDS GUST
NEAR 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS MAY ALSO APPROACH 5 FEET JUST
OUTSIDE THE ERN OCEAN WATERS. WDLY SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVE.
WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT BUT SEAS LINGER JUST BELOW 5 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS.
GENERALLY EXPECTING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH THE START OF
NEXT WEEK WITH AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
WATERS. CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE AS A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS...WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGHER
WINDS AND SEAS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ON TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD BRING SEAS TO 5 FT AND SOME WINDS
GUSTS TO 25 KT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WDLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVE. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REDEVELOP OVER THE SAME
AREA AND PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/24/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...BC/24/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...BC/24/MALOIT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
159 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY SUPPRESSING A
STALLING FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY. THE STALLED FRONT
WILL MOVE BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY...USHERING IN A
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 112 PM EDT...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD
ACROSS ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY HAS BEEN BUILDING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THESE COUNTIES WHERE 1000-1500 K/JG OF SBCAPE WAS
ANALYZED ON THE SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE. MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS
THE LOCAL WRF AND HRRR INDICATE THE BULK OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL DEVELOP JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA BUT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COUNTY
BORDERS. SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THERE WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION FOR THE REST OF TODAY.
HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY HELPING TO SUPPRESS THE
STALLING COLD FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS
EVENING. IT WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA RANGING FROM LOWER/MID 70S ACROSS SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TO
THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT.
TONIGHT...AS SMALL HIGH PRESSURE CREST TO OUR SOUTH...IT LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY CLEAR AND COMFORTABLY COOL WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
50S...WITH PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. NEAR
THE I-84 CORRIDOR...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME STRATUS COULD
FORM...WHICH WOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES UP A TAD...CLOSER TO 60.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO WORK TO OUR EAST AND WEAKEN ON FRIDAY.
A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS FEATURE WILL DRIVE
SOME WARM AIR OUR WAY AS H850 TEMPS RISE FROM THE LOWER TO HIGH
TEENS. THE DAY WILL START OUT WITH SUNSHINE AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTER
FLOW. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS AND WARMER TEMPS ALOFT WILL
WARM THINGS UP AT THE SURFACE IN HURRY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO SOAR
WELL QUICKLY WELL INTO THE 80S IN MOST AREAS...LOCALLY UPPER 80S IN THE
CAPITAL REGION...AND NEAR 90 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/LOWER LITCHFIELD
COUNTY. BTW...WE HAVE NOT HIT 90 OFFICIALLY IN ALBANY SINCE JULY 2 OF
LAST YEAR.
WITH THE HEATING WILL COME DESTABILIZATION. AT THE SAME TIME...THE MID LEVEL
WIND INCREASE PRODUCING 0-6KM BULK SHEARS GREAT THAN 30 KM.
IF CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WESTWARD
IT COULD BECOME ORGANIZED INTO BOWING SEGMENTS PRODUCING POSSIBLE STRONG
TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HENCE THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
PLACED THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST INTO MARGINAL RISK FOR FRIDAY.
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA JUST SCRAPES NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY...THEN GOES
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.
MITIGATING FACTORS AT LEAST ON FRIDAY FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A WEAK CAP
IN THE ATMOSPHERE...WHICH COULD INHIBIT CONVECTION...BUT MORE LIKELY
WILL DO IT SO SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
FOR NOW...WE DID INCREASE POPS TO LOW CHANCES ACROSS THE CAPITAL REGION
SOUTHWARD...HIGHER POPS (STILL CHANCE) ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AREAS.
WE USED ENHANCED WORDING "POSSIBLY CONTAINING GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL" FOR NOW.
AS THE STORM MOVES FURTHER NORTH INTO EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE BETTER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD CONTAIN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AS ENERGY FROM THIS WHOLE SYSTEM WAS
DERIVED FROM LINGERING VORTICITY FROM TROPICAL STORM BLANCA...WHICH IMPACTED
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THE BETTER PART OF A WEEK AGO. PWATS LOOK TO RAMP UP
TO NEARLY 2 INCHES NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY FRIDAY NIGHT.
LOWS ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MUGGY 60 TO 70 RANGE.
WE WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY...BUT IT LOOKS TO
CLEAR MOST OF OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. IF THE TIMING WORKS OUT
SEVERE WEATHER ON SATURDAY LOOKS MINIMAL SINCE DRIER AIR WILL BE FILTERING
IN BY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SHOULD THIS SYSTEM SLOW DOWN...THE THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER WOULD INCREASE.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WARM...GENERALLY IN THE 80S...
WITH SOME MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD OPENS WITH A COLD FRONT SETTLING WELL
SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH A SFC
ANTICYCLONE RIDING IN FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES BACK IN FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE MID WEEK.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY.
SFC DEWPOINTS WILL LOWER INTO THE 40S TO M50S SAT NIGHT. H850 TEMPS
FALL BACK TO +10C TO +12C. LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M50S TO
L60S ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THE SFC HIGH WILL YIELD FAIR AND DRY WX
TO CLOSE THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL FOR MID-JUNE WITH U70S
TO L80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND 70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A CLOSED H500 SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE IS
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND LOWER MID ATLANTIC STATES. FLAT
RIDGING WILL BE OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND INITIALLY...BUT A SHORT-WAVE
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO SE ONTARIO AND SW
QUEBEC TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING BASED ON THE GFS/ECMWF. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE AND A COLD FRONT...AS WELL AS WARM
FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. A SLIGHT CHC
OF SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN THE FORECAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING DUE TO WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO
THE WPC/ECMWF SCENARIO. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID AND U50S.
A WARM AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. A CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT WITH A SFC LOW MOVING INTO CNTRL QUEBEC. INSTABILITY
MAYBE LIMITED BY THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. THE GFS HAS THE BEST
SBCAPES OF AROUND 500 J/KG FOR LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE U70S TO AROUND 80F
IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY...A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS OVER THE UPPER
MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY DIPS S/SE FROM THE
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS HAS THE MID LEVEL
FLOW MORE ZONAL OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SCT
SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME
STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA
IF ENOUGH HEATING OCCURS. AFTER LOWS IN THE M50S TO L60S...HIGH
WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...CONSISTENT TREND IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE AND WPC FOR THE FRONT TO BUCKLE SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA OVER
PA...AND LONG ISLAND FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO RIDGE IN FOR THE MID WEEK.
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY ZONAL. THE QUESTION
WILL BE HOW LONG THE SFC RIDGE WILL HANG ON AS WE GO INTO THE LATER
PORTIONS OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGHS WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE FOR THE
REGION WITH M70S TO L80S FOR HIGHS...AND LOWS WILL BE A TAD ABOVE
NORMAL WITH 50S TO L60S.
TEMPS LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE LONG TERM...WITH PCPN NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE FOR SOME MVFR FOG EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
HAVE A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE REGION WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALLING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF KPOU ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY/NEW YORK CITY METROPOLITAN AREA. THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY. WITH ITS PASSAGE A WARMER AND
HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED INTO THE AREA AND IT WILL PROVIDED
A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP...HOWEVER THE CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED AFTER 18Z/FRIDAY.
MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS
CLOUDS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
WESTERLY WINDS 8 TO 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT-SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY TODAY WITH MODERATE LOW RH VALUES IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH MOST AREAS DIPPING INTO THE 30 PERCENT RANGE...SLIGHTLY HIGHER
IN OUR NORTHERN AND EXTREME SOUTHERN AREAS. A WEST WIND WILL AVERAGE
10-15 MPH...GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY/HIGHER TERRAIN
AND CAPITAL REGION. THERE COULD BE A POP UP AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
NEAR A POUGHKEEPSIE TORRINGTON LINE.
A NEARLY FULL RECOVERY TONIGHT WITH RH VALUES 75-90 PERCENT AND SOME DEW.
A VERY WARM DAY FRIDAY...MORE HUMID THAN TODAY WITH RH VALUES IN MODERATE
RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON...40-50 PERCENT IN MOST PLACES.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
SATURDAY. SOME OF THE RAIN COULD BE QUITE HEAVY...AND MUCH OF OUR AREA
SHOULD QUARTER INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL.
DRY WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY AND MUCH OF MONDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NOT MUCH RAIN FELL IN OUR AREA OVERNIGHT AND IN FACT MOST AREAS DID NOT
SEE ANY MEASURABLE RAIN. IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY TODAY...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS DOWN NEAR A POUGHKEEPSIE
TORRINGTON LINE. THESE SHOULD HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON WATERSHEDS BUT
COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER.
DRY TONIGHT AND THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY. THEN THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY
WHERE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS FRIDAY
NIGHT. SOME OF THESE COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWAT
VALUES RAMP UP TO NEAR 2 INCHES. THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED
FLOODING IN OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS AND CERTAINLY PONDING OF WATER.
ALSO...IF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WERE TO FALL IN THE RIGHT PLACE...THEY COULD
TRIGGER SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANKFULL RISES ON SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS...MAINLY
FROM THE MOHAWK RIVER NORTHWARD.
THERE COULD BE A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY BEFORE
THE WHOLE SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTHWARD. DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN SUNDAY
AND MOST OF MONDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
112 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY SUPPRESSING A
STALLING FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY. THE STALLED FRONT
WILL MOVE BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY...USHERING IN A
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 112 PM EDT...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD
ACROSS ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY HAS BEEN BUILDING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THESE COUNTIES WHERE 1000-1500 K/JG OF SBCAPE WAS
ANALYZED ON THE SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE. MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS
THE LOCAL WRF AND HRRR INDICATE THE BULK OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL DEVELOP JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA BUT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COUNTY
BORDERS. SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THERE WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION FOR THE REST OF TODAY.
HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY HELPING TO SUPPRESS THE
STALLING COLD FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS
EVENING. IT WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA RANGING FROM LOWER/MID 70S ACROSS SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TO
THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT.
TONIGHT...AS SMALL HIGH PRESSURE CREST TO OUR SOUTH...IT LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY CLEAR AND COMFORTABLY COOL WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
50S...WITH PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. NEAR
THE I-84 CORRIDOR...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME STRATUS COULD
FORM...WHICH WOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES UP A TAD...CLOSER TO 60.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO WORK TO OUR EAST AND WEAKEN ON FRIDAY.
A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS FEATURE WILL DRIVE
SOME WARM AIR OUR WAY AS H850 TEMPS RISE FROM THE LOWER TO HIGH
TEENS. THE DAY WILL START OUT WITH SUNSHINE AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTER
FLOW. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS AND WARMER TEMPS ALOFT WILL
WARM THINGS UP AT THE SURFACE IN HURRY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO SOAR
WELL QUICKLY WELL INTO THE 80S IN MOST AREAS...LOCALLY UPPER 80S IN THE
CAPITAL REGION...AND NEAR 90 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/LOWER LITCHFIELD
COUNTY. BTW...WE HAVE NOT HIT 90 OFFICIALLY IN ALBANY SINCE JULY 2 OF
LAST YEAR.
WITH THE HEATING WILL COME DESTABILIZATION. AT THE SAME TIME...THE MID LEVEL
WIND INCREASE PRODUCING 0-6KM BULK SHEARS GREAT THAN 30 KM.
IF CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WESTWARD
IT COULD BECOME ORGANIZED INTO BOWING SEGMENTS PRODUCING POSSIBLE STRONG
TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HENCE THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
PLACED THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST INTO MARGINAL RISK FOR FRIDAY.
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA JUST SCRAPES NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY...THEN GOES
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.
MITIGATING FACTORS AT LEAST ON FRIDAY FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A WEAK CAP
IN THE ATMOSPHERE...WHICH COULD INHIBIT CONVECTION...BUT MORE LIKELY
WILL DO IT SO SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
FOR NOW...WE DID INCREASE POPS TO LOW CHANCES ACROSS THE CAPITAL REGION
SOUTHWARD...HIGHER POPS (STILL CHANCE) ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AREAS.
WE USED ENHANCED WORDING "POSSIBLY CONTAINING GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL" FOR NOW.
AS THE STORM MOVES FURTHER NORTH INTO EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE BETTER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD CONTAIN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AS ENERGY FROM THIS WHOLE SYSTEM WAS
DERIVED FROM LINGERING VORTICITY FROM TROPICAL STORM BLANCA...WHICH IMPACTED
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THE BETTER PART OF A WEEK AGO. PWATS LOOK TO RAMP UP
TO NEARLY 2 INCHES NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY FRIDAY NIGHT.
LOWS ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MUGGY 60 TO 70 RANGE.
WE WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY...BUT IT LOOKS TO
CLEAR MOST OF OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. IF THE TIMING WORKS OUT
SEVERE WEATHER ON SATURDAY LOOKS MINIMAL SINCE DRIER AIR WILL BE FILTERING
IN BY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SHOULD THIS SYSTEM SLOW DOWN...THE THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER WOULD INCREASE.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WARM...GENERALLY IN THE 80S...
WITH SOME MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD OPENS WITH A COLD FRONT SETTLING WELL
SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH A SFC
ANTICYCLONE RIDING IN FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES BACK IN FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE MID WEEK.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY.
SFC DEWPOINTS WILL LOWER INTO THE 40S TO M50S SAT NIGHT. H850 TEMPS
FALL BACK TO +10C TO +12C. LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M50S TO
L60S ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THE SFC HIGH WILL YIELD FAIR AND DRY WX
TO CLOSE THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL FOR MID-JUNE WITH U70S
TO L80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND 70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A CLOSED H500 SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE IS
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND LOWER MID ATLANTIC STATES. FLAT
RIDGING WILL BE OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND INITIALLY...BUT A SHORT-WAVE
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO SE ONTARIO AND SW
QUEBEC TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING BASED ON THE GFS/ECMWF. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE AND A COLD FRONT...AS WELL AS WARM
FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. A SLIGHT CHC
OF SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN THE FORECAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING DUE TO WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO
THE WPC/ECMWF SCENARIO. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID AND U50S.
A WARM AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. A CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT WITH A SFC LOW MOVING INTO CNTRL QUEBEC. INSTABILITY
MAYBE LIMITED BY THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. THE GFS HAS THE BEST
SBCAPES OF AROUND 500 J/KG FOR LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE U70S TO AROUND 80F
IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY...A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS OVER THE UPPER
MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY DIPS S/SE FROM THE
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS HAS THE MID LEVEL
FLOW MORE ZONAL OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SCT
SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME
STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA
IF ENOUGH HEATING OCCURS. AFTER LOWS IN THE M50S TO L60S...HIGH
WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...CONSISTENT TREND IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE AND WPC FOR THE FRONT TO BUCKLE SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA OVER
PA...AND LONG ISLAND FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO RIDGE IN FOR THE MID WEEK.
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY ZONAL. THE QUESTION
WILL BE HOW LONG THE SFC RIDGE WILL HANG ON AS WE GO INTO THE LATER
PORTIONS OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGHS WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE FOR THE
REGION WITH M70S TO L80S FOR HIGHS...AND LOWS WILL BE A TAD ABOVE
NORMAL WITH 50S TO L60S.
TEMPS LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE LONG TERM...WITH PCPN NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH ALL THE TAF SITES
THROUGH MORNING...STALLING JUST SOUTH OF KPOU.
THERE WILL BE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS...AND SOME CU...MOST EXTENSIVE
NEAR KPOU WHERE A STRAY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...THERE WAS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO EVEN MENTION PROB30
AT THIS TIME.
THE WIND WILL SHIFT WEST LATER THIS MORNING...AS THE FRONT WORKS THROUGH.
IT WILL TURN BREEZE MAINLY AT KALB AND KPSF BY MIDDAY WITH A
WEST WIND 10-15 KTS...GUSTING TO 25KTS AT KALB AND KPSF...LIGHTEST AT KPOU.
FOR TONIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST TO OUR SOUTH. WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT (OR NO WIND) SOME FOG COULD FORM. FOR NOW...ONLY
INTRODUCE MVFR FOG AT KGFL...AND MIFG (SHALLOW FOG)AT THE OTHER TAF
SITES AFTER 08Z.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY TODAY WITH MODERATE LOW RH VALUES IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH MOST AREAS DIPPING INTO THE 30 PERCENT RANGE...SLIGHTLY HIGHER
IN OUR NORTHERN AND EXTREME SOUTHERN AREAS. A WEST WIND WILL AVERAGE
10-15 MPH...GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY/HIGHER TERRAIN
AND CAPITAL REGION. THERE COULD BE A POP UP AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
NEAR A POUGHKEEPSIE TORRINGTON LINE.
A NEARLY FULL RECOVERY TONIGHT WITH RH VALUES 75-90 PERCENT AND SOME DEW.
A VERY WARM DAY FRIDAY...MORE HUMID THAN TODAY WITH RH VALUES IN MODERATE
RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON...40-50 PERCENT IN MOST PLACES.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
SATURDAY. SOME OF THE RAIN COULD BE QUITE HEAVY...AND MUCH OF OUR AREA
SHOULD QUARTER INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL.
DRY WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY AND MUCH OF MONDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NOT MUCH RAIN FELL IN OUR AREA OVERNIGHT AND IN FACT MOST AREAS DID NOT
SEE ANY MEASURABLE RAIN. IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY TODAY...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS DOWN NEAR A POUGHKEEPSIE
TORRINGTON LINE. THESE SHOULD HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON WATERSHEDS BUT
COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER.
DRY TONIGHT AND THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY. THEN THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY
WHERE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS FRIDAY
NIGHT. SOME OF THESE COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWAT
VALUES RAMP UP TO NEAR 2 INCHES. THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED
FLOODING IN OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS AND CERTAINLY PONDING OF WATER.
ALSO...IF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WERE TO FALL IN THE RIGHT PLACE...THEY COULD
TRIGGER SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANKFULL RISES ON SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS...MAINLY
FROM THE MOHAWK RIVER NORTHWARD.
THERE COULD BE A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY BEFORE
THE WHOLE SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTHWARD. DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN SUNDAY
AND MOST OF MONDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
111 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...THEN STALL OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON
FRIDAY. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS THAT COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT
THEY OCCUR. RUC/RAP IS DRY AS IS THE CMC AND ECMWF. THE NAM HAS
MINIMAL PRECIPITATION...THE HRRR KEEPS ON STARTING CONVECTION TOO
SOON AND FINALLY HAS DELAYED ANY CONVECTION UNTIL LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. ITS POSSIBLE THAT CAP AT 850 HPA ON KALY SOUNDING AND
EVEN STRONGER CAP AROUND 940 HPA ON KOKX SOUNDING MIGHT END UP
HOLDING. BASED ON TRENDS HAVE LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY...AND
CONVERTED OVER TO COVERAGE WORDING TO TRY TO EMPHASIZE THAT MORE
PEOPLE WILL NOT SEE SOMETHING THAN WILL SEE SOMETHING THIS
AFTERNOON.
STILL ON TRACK FOR INTERIOR AREAS TO REACH THE UPPER 80S-LOWER
90S. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S THOUGH WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES NEAR
THE AIR TEMPERATURE.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT
ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
FRONT STALLS THROUGH OR JUST S OF THE AREA TONIGHT. SHOWER/TSTMS
WILL WIND DOWN DURING THE EVENING AND SHOULD BE OVER MY MIDNIGHT.
WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN METRO NY/NJ WHERE LOWS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT ON FRI AND ALTHOUGH IT
WON`T BE AS HOT AS TODAY...IT WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER.
HUMIDITY WILL ALSO INCREASE UNDER A SLY FLOW. HAVE KEPT THE
MORNING DRY AS ANY ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN N AND W OF THE LOCAL
AREA...BUT CHANCES INCREASE FROM THE CITY N AND W WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL INCREASE DURING
THIS TIME. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST...SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
BRINGING DRIER WEATHER BACK INTO THE REGION.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE LOW CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY FOR THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...THEN CHANCE POPS EVERYWHERE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY.
DRIER WEATHER RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO
THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE
80S TO LOWER 90S...THEN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE TERMINAL REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE AREA OR
JUST TO THE SOUTH.
SCT TSTMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT DROPS INTO THE
AREA. FOR 15Z AMD SHOWED EARLIER TIMING...BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
ON TIMING/COVERAGE HAVE CONTINUED WITH VICINITY MENTION RATHER
THAN SPECIFIC TERMINAL IMPACTS. DIRECT TSTM IMPACTS COULD BE
SEVERE WITH G50KT POSSIBLE AND IFR VSBY.
SW TO WSW WINDS 10-15G15-20 KT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
VARIABILITY INVOF TSTMS.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF VCTS COULD BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. DIRECT TSTM IMPACTS COULD INCLUDE G50KT AND IFR VSBY.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF VCTS COULD BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. DIRECT TSTM IMPACTS COULD INCLUDE G50KT AND IFR VSBY.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HAZE ALOFT. TIMING OF VCTS COULD BE OFF BY
AN HOUR OR TWO. DIRECT TSTM IMPACTS COULD INCLUDE G50KT AND
IFR VSBY.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF VCTS COULD BE OFF BY
AN HOUR OR TWO. DIRECT TSTM IMPACTS COULD INCLUDE G50KT AND
IFR VSBY.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF VCTS COULD BE OFF BY
AN HOUR OR TWO. DIRECT TSTM IMPACTS COULD INCLUDE G50KT AND
IFR VSBY.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF VCTS COULD BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.FRI...CHANCE OF AFTERNOON TSTMS WITH BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS
POSSIBLE. S-SW WINDS G20-25KT.
.SAT...COLD FRONT WILL BRING CHANCE OF TSTMS WITH MVFR OR LOWER
CONDS POSSIBLE. W WINDS G25KT.
.SUN...VFR WITH SE FLOW DEVELOPING.
.MON...VFR WITH S FLOW.
&&
.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS
IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SW WINDS GUST
NEAR 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS MAY ALSO APPROACH 5 FEET JUST
OUTSIDE THE ERN OCEAN WATERS. WDLY SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVE.
WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT BUT SEAS LINGER JUST BELOW 5 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS.
GENERALLY EXPECTING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH THE START OF
NEXT WEEK WITH AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
WATERS. CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE AS A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS...WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGHER
WINDS AND SEAS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ON TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD BRING SEAS TO 5 FT AND SOME WINDS
GUSTS TO 25 KT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WDLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVE. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REDEVELOP OVER THE SAME
AREA AND PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/BC/24
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...MALOIT/BC/24
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/BC/24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
557 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
556 PM CDT
CONVECTION IS DEEPENING OVER EASTERN IOWA IN ADVANCE OF
SUBTLE...LIKELY CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED/INDUCED...SHORTWAVE THAT IS
TRACKING SLOWLY EASTWARD. STRONG QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS LAID
OUT IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF I-80 WITH VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY RESULTING IN RAP ANALYZED MLCAPE
VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG. KILX/KDVN 88D VWP DATA SHOWING 40-45KT
FLOW AROUND 6KM AGL RESULT IN 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 35 KT
IN THE WARM SECTOR...AND A BIT HIGHER ALONG THE FRONT WHERE WINDS
ARE MORE BACKED. OVERALL WIND PROFILES LOOK GOOD FOR SUPERCELLS
WITH VEERING/STRENGTHENING WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT. THERE DOES
APPEAR TO BE SOME THREAT FOR TORNADOES WITH SUPERCELLS THIS
EVENING...PARTICULARLY ANY THAT CAN FESTER NEAR OR RIDE ALONG THE
WARM FRONT. BASED ON RAP FORECAST WIND PROFILES THE BUNKERS RIGHT
MOVING STORM MOTION IS EAST AROUND 10 KT...WHICH IS LARGELY
PARALLEL TO THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT INCREASING THE POTENTIAL
FOR A SUPERCELL TO RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET THIS EVENING SHOULD RESULT IN A VERY
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR. ASSUMING STORM MODE
REMAINS SUPERCELLULAR...THERE LOOKS TO BE A SHORT WINDOW FOR A
MORE SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT EARLY-MID EVENING WITH THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW INCREASE BUT PRIOR TO BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMING STABLE
ENOUGH FOR STORMS TO BECOME ROOTED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
IZZI
&&
.SHORT TERM...
229 PM CDT
THROUGH FRIDAY...
CONCERNS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SOLAR
SHIELDING ACROSS NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN...WITH LESS CLOUD COVER
FURTHER SOUTH OF THE KANKAKEE RIVER. THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS SLOW TO LIFT NORTH...AND MAY BE AN INDICATION FOR LATER
TONIGHT WITH ACTIVITY BEING DISPLACED SOUTH ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA.
MOISTURE HAS POOLED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH DEW
POINTS RISING INTO THE LOW 70S...WHILE FURTHER NORTH THE EASTERLY
FLOW IS ALLOWING DEW POINTS TO HOLD IN THE LOW 60S. MID-LVL
VORTICITY MAXIMA FOCUSED ACROSS NEBRASKA/IOWA/KANSAS WILL STEADILY
SHIFT EAST WITH THE SFC LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. SREF 850MB WINDS OF 30-40KT FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS
PROGGED OVER THE CWFA TONIGHT...WITH MODERATE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ARRIVING SHORTLY AFT 3Z THRU DAYBREAK FRI. AS ELUDED TOO
EARLIER...OPER GUIDANCE IS HINTING THAT THE BOUNDARY MAY BECOME
ORIENTED ACROSS THE HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALLOWING
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO FEED ALONG THIS AXIS. WITH THE DEEP
MOISTURE PROGGED TONIGHT...THIS ALL POINTS TOWARDS THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. MANY LOCATIONS HAVE BECOME PRE-CONDITIONED
FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL...SO HAVE LEANED MORE LIBERAL WITH
HOISTING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THE OTHER CONCERN IS FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT.
WITH FLOW BACKED TO THE EAST NORTH OF I-80...WITH SLOWLY
DECREASING CIN FROM THE SLOWLY THINNING CLOUD COVER...THE
INSTABILITY HAS BEEN STEADILY INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
A FEW SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED EARLIER IN THE DAY...HOWEVER THE FOCUS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN WELL WEST ACROSS IOWA. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES NOT SUGGEST ANY VERTICAL GROWTH YET TO THE
CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN IL...HOWEVER JUST WEST INTO IOWA THERE IS
A CONVECTIVE LOOK TO THE CLOUDS. SUSPECT THAT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST...IT WILL HELP
TO TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND COULD QUICKLY BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE.
THE CONCERN IS MAINLY FOCUSED FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...HOWEVER GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF A SHARP FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND BACKED FLOW ALONG WITH ANOMALOUS PWAT ADVECTING NORTH...A FEW
STRONGER UPDRAFTS NEAR THE BOUNDARY COULD ROTATE AND PRODUCE AN
ISOLATED TORNADO.
FOR FRIDAY THE AXIS OF HIGH PWAT BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST...HOWEVER
THE DAY WILL LIKELY START UNSTABLE AND COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER
STORMS LATE IN THE MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON.
GUIDANCE INDICATES WEAK ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW ARRIVING ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND SHIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES FRI AFTN. THIS MAY HELP TO BRING AN END TO PRECIP EARLIER
ACROSS THE WEST/NORTHWEST CWFA FRI MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN. TEMPS FOR
FRI WILL BE DIFFICULT GIVEN THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. HAVE OPTED
TO ONLY MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GOING FORECAST WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 70S NORTH OF I-80...AND LOW/MID 80S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA.
BEACHLER
&&
.LONG TERM...
229 PM CDT
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE SERN CONUS...WITH
LONG WAVE RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE ERN CONUS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ACTIVE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM PATTERN
WILL FORCE THE RIDGE SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS UPPER
TROUGHING DEEPENS OVER THE NWRN CONUS AND SWRN CANADA WHILE A SERIES
OF SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES LIFT NEWD OUT OF THE SWRN CONUS AND
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE NET EFFECT ON THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN OVER THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS WILL BE FOR
PERSISTENT SWLY FLOW ALOFT WITH A SERIES OF SRN STREAM SHORTWAVES
BRINING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE THE WORDING OF THE FORECAST MAY
SOUND A BIT MONOTONOUS...WITH CHANCES FOR PCPN EVERY
DAY...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TIMING AND
TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVES. EVEN THROUGH THE LONGER TERM MODELS ARE IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL TREND AND PATTERN...THE
MINOR TIMING...STRENGTH AND TRACK DIFFERENCES WILL AFFECT THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER FORECAST. THE PERIOD OF HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN THE
PCPN FORECAST WILL BE THE PERIOD FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY MORNING WHERE THE LONGER TERM MODELS EXHIBIT RATHER GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE FINER SCALE DETAILS OF THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY. THE
SCREAMING MESSAGE HERE IS THAT MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK SHOULD BE A WASHOUT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE
FRIDAY AND MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SPREADS ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS SOUTH
OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
LIFTS NWD THROUGH THE REGION. BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE SFC LOW IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PUSH THE WARM
FRONT THROUGH NRN IL/IN TO CNTRL WI/LAKE MICHIGAN/LOWER MICHIGAN.
THIS PATTERN IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE SCENARIO EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SO ANOTHER PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD AGGRAVATE ANY LINGERING RIVER FLOODING OR
AREAL OVER-LAND FLOODING.
THE TEMPERATURE TREND SHOULD LARGELY FOR NEAR SEASONABLE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...SUNDAY SHOULD BE A
BIT WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S...
ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR...WHICH WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM LONGER THAN THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THERE WILL ALSO BE OPPORTUNITIES FOR
LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT TO KEEP THE LAKEFRONT LOCATIONS COOLER THAN
INLAND AREAS. THE MOST PROMINENT LAKE BREEZE SHOULD BE ON SATURDAY
AS THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. NELY FLOW ON SATURDAY SHOULD KEEP THE
LAKEFRONT IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S...WHILE LOCATIONS WELL INLAND
WILL HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LAKEFRONT COOLING IS ALSO POSSIBLE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OUT OF CANADA AND SPREADS ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS.
KREIN
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
229 PM CDT
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR WESTERN ILLINOIS AND SHIFT EAST.
FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A BOUNDARY WILL BECOME ORIENTED
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR AND SERVE AS THE FOCAL POINT FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. WITH DEEP MOISTURE
LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION...SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS.
SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN IL AND NORTHWEST IN HAVE
SATURATED SOILS FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE PAST FEW
DAYS...THAT ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
FLOODING AND POTENTIALLY FLASH FLOODING. HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT. THIS WILL FURTHER
AGGRAVATE ALREADY ELEVATED STREAMS.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...
* SCATTERED TSRA THIS EVENING.
* SHRA WITH A CHANCE OF TSRA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
* NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15KT THIS EVENING.
* NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS 10KT OR HIGHER FRIDAY.
* MVFR...POSSIBLE IFR CIGS FRIDAY. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 22Z...
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT IS NOW NEARLY STATIONARY FROM
NEAR VYS TO NORTH OF IKK. WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASING
NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...NOT EXPECTING IT TO MOVE NORTH TO THE
TERMINALS FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS...POSSIBLY NOT UNTIL OVERNIGHT.
CHANGED WINDS TO NORTHEAST FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING AND EXPECT
ADDITIONAL WIND CHANGES WILL BE NEEDED WITH THE 00Z TAFS.
TWEAKED CONVECTION TIMING SLIGHTLY...BY DELAYING IT...WITH THE 22Z
UPDATE. ISOLATED ACTIVITY CONTINUES FROM SOUTH OF JOT TO VPZ. SHRA
AND SOME TSRA CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE NEAR THE
QUAD CITIES AND THE HRRR BRINGS THAT ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING...IN SOME KIND OF WEAKENING FORM. ACTIVITY FURTHER WEST...
ACROSS SOUTHWEST IOWA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
NORTHEAST AND MOVE OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE
REGARDING COVERAGE/TIMING IS LOW. CMS
PREVIOUS 18Z DISCUSSION...
AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT THE RFD AREA THIS
HOUR...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING NEAR THE REMAINING
TERMINALS AS WEAK OUTFLOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. IF ANY SHOWERS
WERE TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS IN THE NEAR TERM...EXPECT THEM
TO BE BRIEF WITH VIS BRIEFLY FALLING TO 3-5SM. DRY CONDITIONS THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE UPSTREAM
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH AND INCREASE WITH SLOWLY LIFTING
WARM FRONT. LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING TIME FRAME STILL
APPEARS TO BE THE BEST WINDOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF PRECIP TO THE WEST WILL LIKELY
MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WITH PRECIP CONTINUING ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
COVERAGE OF THIS PRECIP AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER IS
LOW DURING THIS TIME...BUT WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY STILL
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE...THUNDER STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE AND
WILL NEED TO BE ADDRESSED WITH LATER FORECASTS. ANY LINGERING
PRECIP WILL DRIFT SOUTH ON FRIDAY...AS MVFR CEILINGS MOVE IN
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z...
* MEDIUM FOR TSRA THIS EVENING...LOW FOR TIMING/COVERAGE.
* MEDIUM FOR SHRA/CHANCE OF TSRA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
* HIGH FOR NORTHEAST WINDS THIS EVENING. LOW FOR WINDS OVERNIGHT
AND FRIDAY.
* HIGH FOR MVFR CIGS FRIDAY...MEDIUM FOR IFR. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* FRIDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF SHRA EARLY...OTHERWISE PERIODS OF MVFR
TO IFR CIGS. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS.
* SATURDAY...DRY. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. NORTHEAST WINDS.
* SUNDAY...TSRA LIKELY. SOUTHERLY WINDS.
* MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA. SOUTHWEST WINDS
BECOMING NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.
KJB
&&
.MARINE...
310 PM CDT
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA WILL
NORTHEAST TO FAR NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS THIS EVENING AND THEN TURN
EAST AND TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OF LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
SOME THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BE SEVERE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...PRODUCING OCCASIONAL PERIODS
OF LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER WAVES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY SETTING UP A PERIOD OF
GENERALLY NORTHEAST WINDS. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST
SUNDAY...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDING
EAST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA SUNDAY WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH TO
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE. THE LOW SHOULD TRACK ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE LAKE SUNDAY NIGHT.
AREAS OF FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE LAKE TONIGHT AS THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM TRANSPORTS A VERY WARM...MOIST AIRMASS OVER
THE COLD LAKE WATERS.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-
ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 10
AM FRIDAY.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
521 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
229 PM CDT
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THIN ACROSS NORTHERN IL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEING DEPICTED FROM NEAR LASALLE EAST TO
VALPARAISO IN. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY VERY WARM/HUMID AIR HAS
RETURNED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S AND TEMPS IN THE MID/UPR
80S. CONSIDERABLE TEMP DIFFERENTIAL TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
WITH EASTERLY FLOW KEEPING TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S AND DEW POINTS IN
THE LOW 60S. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS ALREADY BECOME UNSTABLE FURTHER
SOUTH WITH SPC MESO PAGE INDICATING BETWEEN 2-3K J/KG TO THE SOUTH
OF THE BOUNDARY. FURTHER NORTH THE ATMOS REMAINS SLIGHTLY MORE
STABLE WITH SOME CIN STILL HOLDING ON.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS BEING INFLUENCED BY THE STRONG BACKED EASTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWFA WITH BETWEEN 40-50KTS. THE FOCUSCONTINUES
TO BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS FOR BETTER
DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN
CWFA. SPC CONTINUES TO HAVE THE ENTIRE AREA OUTLOOKED FOR A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT.
BEACHLER
&&
.SHORT TERM...
229 PM CDT
THROUGH FRIDAY...
CONCERNS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SOLAR
SHIELDING ACROSS NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN...WITH LESS CLOUD COVER
FURTHER SOUTH OF THE KANKAKEE RIVER. THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS SLOW TO LIFT NORTH...AND MAY BE AN INDICATION FOR LATER
TONIGHT WITH ACTIVITY BEING DISPLACED SOUTH ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA.
MOISTURE HAS POOLED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH DEW
POINTS RISING INTO THE LOW 70S...WHILE FURTHER NORTH THE EASTERLY
FLOW IS ALLOWING DEW POINTS TO HOLD IN THE LOW 60S. MID-LVL
VORTICITY MAXIMA FOCUSED ACROSS NEBRASKA/IOWA/KANSAS WILL STEADILY
SHIFT EAST WITH THE SFC LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. SREF 850MB WINDS OF 30-40KT FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS
PROGGED OVER THE CWFA TONIGHT...WITH MODERATE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ARRIVING SHORTLY AFT 3Z THRU DAYBREAK FRI. AS ELUDED TOO
EARLIER...OPER GUIDANCE IS HINTING THAT THE BOUNDARY MAY BECOME
ORIENTED ACROSS THE HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALLOWING
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO FEED ALONG THIS AXIS. WITH THE DEEP
MOISTURE PROGGED TONIGHT...THIS ALL POINTS TOWARDS THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. MANY LOCATIONS HAVE BECOME PRE-CONDITIONED
FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL...SO HAVE LEANED MORE LIBERAL WITH
HOISTING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THE OTHER CONCERN IS FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT.
WITH FLOW BACKED TO THE EAST NORTH OF I-80...WITH SLOWLY
DECREASING CIN FROM THE SLOWLY THINNING CLOUD COVER...THE
INSTABILITY HAS BEEN STEADILY INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
A FEW SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED EARLIER IN THE DAY...HOWEVER THE FOCUS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN WELL WEST ACROSS IOWA. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES NOT SUGGEST ANY VERTICAL GROWTH YET TO THE
CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN IL...HOWEVER JUST WEST INTO IOWA THERE IS
A CONVECTIVE LOOK TO THE CLOUDS. SUSPECT THAT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST...IT WILL HELP
TO TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND COULD QUICKLY BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE.
THE CONCERN IS MAINLY FOCUSED FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...HOWEVER GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF A SHARP FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND BACKED FLOW ALONG WITH ANOMALOUS PWAT ADVECTING NORTH...A FEW
STRONGER UPDRAFTS NEAR THE BOUNDARY COULD ROTATE AND PRODUCE AN
ISOLATED TORNADO.
FOR FRIDAY THE AXIS OF HIGH PWAT BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST...HOWEVER
THE DAY WILL LIKELY START UNSTABLE AND COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER
STORMS LATE IN THE MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON.
GUIDANCE INDICATES WEAK ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW ARRIVING ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND SHIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES FRI AFTN. THIS MAY HELP TO BRING AN END TO PRECIP EARLIER
ACROSS THE WEST/NORTHWEST CWFA FRI MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN. TEMPS FOR
FRI WILL BE DIFFICULT GIVEN THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. HAVE OPTED
TO ONLY MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GOING FORECAST WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 70S NORTH OF I-80...AND LOW/MID 80S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA.
BEACHLER
&&
.LONG TERM...
229 PM CDT
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE SERN CONUS...WITH
LONG WAVE RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE ERN CONUS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ACTIVE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM PATTERN
WILL FORCE THE RIDGE SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS UPPER
TROUGHING DEEPENS OVER THE NWRN CONUS AND SWRN CANADA WHILE A SERIES
OF SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES LIFT NEWD OUT OF THE SWRN CONUS AND
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE NET EFFECT ON THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN OVER THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS WILL BE FOR
PERSISTENT SWLY FLOW ALOFT WITH A SERIES OF SRN STREAM SHORTWAVES
BRINING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE THE WORDING OF THE FORECAST MAY
SOUND A BIT MONOTONOUS...WITH CHANCES FOR PCPN EVERY
DAY...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TIMING AND
TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVES. EVEN THROUGH THE LONGER TERM MODELS ARE IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL TREND AND PATTERN...THE
MINOR TIMING...STRENGTH AND TRACK DIFFERENCES WILL AFFECT THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER FORECAST. THE PERIOD OF HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN THE
PCPN FORECAST WILL BE THE PERIOD FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY MORNING WHERE THE LONGER TERM MODELS EXHIBIT RATHER GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE FINER SCALE DETAILS OF THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY. THE
SCREAMING MESSAGE HERE IS THAT MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK SHOULD BE A WASHOUT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE
FRIDAY AND MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SPREADS ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS SOUTH
OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
LIFTS NWD THROUGH THE REGION. BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE SFC LOW IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PUSH THE WARM
FRONT THROUGH NRN IL/IN TO CNTRL WI/LAKE MICHIGAN/LOWER MICHIGAN.
THIS PATTERN IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE SCENARIO EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SO ANOTHER PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD AGGRAVATE ANY LINGERING RIVER FLOODING OR
AREAL OVER-LAND FLOODING.
THE TEMPERATURE TREND SHOULD LARGELY FOR NEAR SEASONABLE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...SUNDAY SHOULD BE A
BIT WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S...
ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR...WHICH WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM LONGER THAN THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THERE WILL ALSO BE OPPORTUNITIES FOR
LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT TO KEEP THE LAKEFRONT LOCATIONS COOLER THAN
INLAND AREAS. THE MOST PROMINENT LAKE BREEZE SHOULD BE ON SATURDAY
AS THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. NELY FLOW ON SATURDAY SHOULD KEEP THE
LAKEFRONT IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S...WHILE LOCATIONS WELL INLAND
WILL HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LAKEFRONT COOLING IS ALSO POSSIBLE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OUT OF CANADA AND SPREADS ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS.
KREIN
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
229 PM CDT
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR WESTERN ILLINOIS AND SHIFT EAST.
FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A BOUNDARY WILL BECOME ORIENTED
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR AND SERVE AS THE FOCAL POINT FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. WITH DEEP MOISTURE
LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION...SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS.
SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN IL AND NORTHWEST IN HAVE
SATURATED SOILS FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE PAST FEW
DAYS...THAT ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
FLOODING AND POTENTIALLY FLASH FLOODING. HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT. THIS WILL FURTHER
AGGRAVATE ALREADY ELEVATED STREAMS.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...
* SCATTERED TSRA THIS EVENING.
* SHRA WITH A CHANCE OF TSRA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
* NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15KT THIS EVENING.
* NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS 10KT OR HIGHER FRIDAY.
* MVFR...POSSIBLE IFR CIGS FRIDAY. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 22Z...
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT IS NOW NEARLY STATIONARY FROM
NEAR VYS TO NORTH OF IKK. WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASING
NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...NOT EXPECTING IT TO MOVE NORTH TO THE
TERMINALS FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS...POSSIBLY NOT UNTIL OVERNIGHT.
CHANGED WINDS TO NORTHEAST FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING AND EXPECT
ADDITIONAL WIND CHANGES WILL BE NEEDED WITH THE 00Z TAFS.
TWEAKED CONVECTION TIMING SLIGHTLY...BY DELAYING IT...WITH THE 22Z
UPDATE. ISOLATED ACTIVITY CONTINUES FROM SOUTH OF JOT TO VPZ. SHRA
AND SOME TSRA CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE NEAR THE
QUAD CITIES AND THE HRRR BRINGS THAT ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING...IN SOME KIND OF WEAKENING FORM. ACTIVITY FURTHER WEST...
ACROSS SOUTHWEST IOWA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
NORTHEAST AND MOVE OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE
REGARDING COVERAGE/TIMING IS LOW. CMS
PREVIOUS 18Z DISCUSSION...
AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT THE RFD AREA THIS
HOUR...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING NEAR THE REMAINING
TERMINALS AS WEAK OUTFLOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. IF ANY SHOWERS
WERE TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS IN THE NEAR TERM...EXPECT THEM
TO BE BRIEF WITH VIS BRIEFLY FALLING TO 3-5SM. DRY CONDITIONS THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE UPSTREAM
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH AND INCREASE WITH SLOWLY LIFTING
WARM FRONT. LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING TIME FRAME STILL
APPEARS TO BE THE BEST WINDOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF PRECIP TO THE WEST WILL LIKELY
MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WITH PRECIP CONTINUING ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
COVERAGE OF THIS PRECIP AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER IS
LOW DURING THIS TIME...BUT WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY STILL
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE...THUNDER STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE AND
WILL NEED TO BE ADDRESSED WITH LATER FORECASTS. ANY LINGERING
PRECIP WILL DRIFT SOUTH ON FRIDAY...AS MVFR CEILINGS MOVE IN
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z...
* MEDIUM FOR TSRA THIS EVENING...LOW FOR TIMING/COVERAGE.
* MEDIUM FOR SHRA/CHANCE OF TSRA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
* HIGH FOR NORTHEAST WINDS THIS EVENING. LOW FOR WINDS OVERNIGHT
AND FRIDAY.
* HIGH FOR MVFR CIGS FRIDAY...MEDIUM FOR IFR. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* FRIDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF SHRA EARLY...OTHERWISE PERIODS OF MVFR
TO IFR CIGS. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS.
* SATURDAY...DRY. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. NORTHEAST WINDS.
* SUNDAY...TSRA LIKELY. SOUTHERLY WINDS.
* MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA. SOUTHWEST WINDS
BECOMING NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.
KJB
&&
.MARINE...
310 PM CDT
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA WILL
NORTHEAST TO FAR NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS THIS EVENING AND THEN TURN
EAST AND TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OF LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
SOME THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BE SEVERE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...PRODUCING OCCASIONAL PERIODS
OF LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER WAVES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY SETTING UP A PERIOD OF
GENERALLY NORTHEAST WINDS. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST
SUNDAY...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDING
EAST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA SUNDAY WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH TO
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE. THE LOW SHOULD TRACK ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE LAKE SUNDAY NIGHT.
AREAS OF FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE LAKE TONIGHT AS THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM TRANSPORTS A VERY WARM...MOIST AIRMASS OVER
THE COLD LAKE WATERS.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-
ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 10
AM FRIDAY.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1228 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015
AT 17Z...SURFACE FRONT STRETCHED FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS...OR JUST EAST OF A KRSL-KDDC LINE. THE
LATEST HRRR AND RAP BOTH DEVELOP CONVECTION IN THE 20-22Z TIME
FRAME ALONG THE FRONT ROUGHLY ALONG/JUST EAST OF A KSLN-KPTT
LINE...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN LATEST ANALYSIS. SBCAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG AND AROUND 35 KTS OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS UNTIL DARK ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. OTHERWISE THE MAIN CONCERN
LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL BE A TRANSITION TO HEAVY
RAINFALL...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGES INTO AND OVER THE
SOUTHWARD SAGGING SURFACE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND
STEERING FLOW BECOMES MORE PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. THIS SHOULD
TEND TO GENERATE A BACK-BUILDING/TRAINING SCENARIO FOR SEVERAL
HOURS JUST NORTH OF THE SOUTHWARD SAGGING FRONT. THIS LOOKS TO
BE MOSTLY LIKELY BETWEEN THE HIGHWAY 54 AND HIGHWAY 56 CORRIDOR.
THIS MAY NECESSITATE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT WHICH MAY BE
ISSUED WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.
KED
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015
A BROAD UPPER POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
WITH THE MAIN DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST. A PIECE OF THE
DISTURBANCE HAS MOVED OVER NEBRASKA SPARKING THUNDERSTORMS. A MCS
DEVELOPED OVER NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS DURING THE EVENING AND
TRACKED EASTWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS. A
SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN KANSAS WITH THE SURFACE
FRONT DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN KANSAS.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015
THIS PERIOD IS STILL THE PERIOD OF CONCERN WITH HEAVY RAIN BEING
THE MAIN CONCERN.
TODAY-TONIGHT:
CONVECTION THAT IS PRESENT THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY
MID MORNING AT THE LATEST WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...HOT AND WINDY
DAY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE NAM SPARKS
THUNDERSTORMS CLOSER TO 00Z...BUT SOME COULD FIRE ANYTIME AFTER
21Z. STORMS NEAR THE FRONT COULD BE SEVERE WITH MODEST INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR. HOWEVER...THE THREAT WILL SWITCH FROM SEVERE TO HEAVY
RAIN QUICKLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS
BECOMES A CONCERN. FLOODING COULD BE A CONCERN IN ADDITION TO THE
SEVERE THREAT WITH ANY OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP TONIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT:
THINK THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
TRICKY WITH THE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT THURSDAY. HOWEVER...
PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY ALONG OR NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NEAR BY IS
LIKELY. AGAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASES WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHERN
KANSAS OR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THUNDERSTORMS/RAIN SHOWERS WILL
PROVIDE AN ABUNDANCE OF RAIN OVER KANSAS. THERE ARE SOME
DISCREPANCIES AS TO THE PRIMARY LOCATION...BUT SOUTHERN KANSAS
CONTINUES TO BE AN AREA OF CONCERN.
SATURDAY - SATURDAY NIGHT:
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY A SURFACE LOW WITH A BOUNDARY WILL LINGER IN THE
AREA WITH A POTENT UPPER LOW FOR SUPPORT. THIS PROVIDES SUPPORT
FOR DAYTIME AND OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS.
RAIN ACCUMULATION: OVERALL THE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS FROM TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA WITH
THE HIGHEST CONCERN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SEE THE HYDRO
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015
THIS PERIOD REMAINS A CONCERN WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH A WEAK UPPER LOW
MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE GUIDANCE INDICATES
THIS IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AT LEAST CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER WAVE FINALLY
KICKS IT EASTWARD DRYING IT OUT. TEMPERATURES MAY MODERATE
SLIGHTLY INTO THE 80S...BUT THIS MAY CHANGE IF IT INDEED IS AS
RAINY AS ADVERTISED. THIS PERIOD HAS UNCERTAINTIES...SO BE SURE TO
MONITOR FOR CHANGES AS IT NEARS.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SO WILL GO WITH
VCTS FOR ALL TAFS EXCEPT KCNU. DO NOT EXPECT ANY FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS EVEN WITH THE TSRA CHANCE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
THE HIGH BASES OF THE STORMS. THINK MOST OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
WANE BEFORE THEY GET TO KCNU...SO LEFT VCTS OUT OF THE THIS TAF FOR
NOW.
EXPECT A BREAK FROM THE CONVECTION FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE
A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT RENEWED SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY AFTER 21Z IN CENTRAL KS...AND AFTER 00Z FOR KHUT/KICT.
EXPECT THE SHOWERS/STORMS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT SO WILL
KEEP VCTS GOING IN MOST LOCATIONS WELL INTO EARLY FRI MORNING.
KETCHAM
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015
AN ACTIVE AND WET FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE THE CONCERN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO THE WORK WEEK. PRECIPITATION WILL
DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG A FRONT OVER CENTRAL KANSAS WHICH
WILL BECOME A HEAVY RAIN CONCERN WITH TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS. WITH CONTINUED CHANCES
ALONG THE FRONT ON FRIDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON SATURDAY...A 3 DAY
RAINFALL ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN WITH THE HIGHEST
TOTALS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE ISSUED BY
LATER SHIFTS DUE TO THESE TOTALS AND POSSIBLE CONTINUED RAINFALL
INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 98 67 77 67 / 30 70 70 90
HUTCHINSON 97 64 75 65 / 50 70 60 80
NEWTON 97 64 74 65 / 40 70 60 90
ELDORADO 95 67 77 67 / 30 60 60 80
WINFIELD-KWLD 96 70 81 68 / 40 50 70 90
RUSSELL 88 60 71 63 / 30 40 50 80
GREAT BEND 92 60 71 63 / 30 50 60 70
SALINA 94 62 74 65 / 40 50 50 80
MCPHERSON 96 62 73 65 / 50 70 50 90
COFFEYVILLE 94 73 85 70 / 20 50 50 80
CHANUTE 94 71 81 69 / 40 50 50 80
IOLA 93 71 79 68 / 40 50 50 80
PARSONS-KPPF 94 73 83 70 / 30 50 50 70
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
639 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2015
CONTINUED TREND OF SIGNIFICANTLY CUTTING NRN EXTEND OF POPS AND
LOWER QPF AS MODELS HAVE PERFORMED...AND CONTINUE TO
PERFORM...HORRIBLY. HRRR DEFINITELY DOING THE BEST WITH QPF
CURRENTLY...SO STARTED WITH THAT AND USED TRENDS FROM THE NAM-
DNG/GEM-REGIONAL/HRRR/NCEP-WRFS FOR POP/QPF TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
HAVE CONFINED CHANCE OR GREATER POPS TO S OF A LINE FROM IRON
MOUNTAIN TO NEWBERRY. ALSO CLEARED CLOUDS OUT FROM W TO E FASTER ON
FRI. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD AROUND 0.75 INCHES OF QPF AT
MENOMINEE...BUT CUT THAT BACK TO AROUND 0.35 INCHES NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2015
PLAYING CATCH-UP ON THE PRECIP THAT KEEPS ON SHOWING A MORE S TRACK.
THIS HAS BEEN THE TREND IN THE FCST SOLUTIONS OVER THE PAST 6-12HRS
OR SO. TRANSITIONED FROM NEARLY 2IN OF PRECIP FCST FOR MENOMINEE
COUNTY TO LESS THAN AN INCH. AS OF 19Z...MNM HAD PICKED UP 0.10IN.
WAS A BIT SURPRISED TO GET REPORTS OF DRIZZLE BEHIND THE LAKE
BREEZE N CENTRAL ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT IN OUR MOIST ENVIRO
IT MAKES SENSE. ADDED DRIZZLE INITIALLY...AND INCREASED THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH ALL THE
HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD IT/S DIFFICULT TO SEE THE FOG EXTENT. LUCKILY
THE AREA WEBCAMS HAVE BEEN HELPFUL.
THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP REMAINS NEARLY STEADY-STATE AND SLOWLY
EXITING ACROSS IRON COUNTY. EXPECT THIS TO PUSH PACK E SLIGHTLY AS
THE SFC LOW OVER KS/IA SHIFTS GETS CLOSER /ALONG THE WI/IL BORDER BY
06Z FRIDAY...AND S LAKE MI BY DAYBREAK. PW VALUES MAX OUT AROUND
1.5IN OVER FAR S MENOMINEE COUNTY FROM 03-09Z FRIDAY. UNDER PLENTY
OF CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND E...TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN
THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S.
AT THAT POINT A QUICKER EXIT TO THE PRECIP LOOKS REASONABLE.
THE SFC LOW WILL MAKE ITS WAY TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING THE
DAY AS THE LARGE HIGH TO OUR N BUILDS DRY AIR INTO UPPER MI. WARMED
UP THE TEMPS FOR TOMORROW BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES CWA WIDE UNDER N-
NE WINDS AROUND 12KTS OR LESS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2015
THE PRECIPITATION THAT WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WILL HAVE DEPARTED THE AREA BY
THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. BEHIND THAT PRECIPITATION...AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN INTO SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A 1018MB
HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN SHIFT TO THE
EAST ON SATURDAY. WITH CLEARING SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW
(ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH)...SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER
LIGHT WINDS. PWAT VALUES ONLY FALL TO AROUND 0.4IN...SO DON/T
EXPECT LOWS TO FALL ENOUGH TO LEAD TO FROST CONCERNS...BUT STILL
THINK SOME OF THE TRADITIONAL COLD RAWS SITES TO FALL TO OR JUST
BELOW 40 DEGREES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LOWS IN THE REST OF THE AREA
TO BE IN THE 40S.
SATURDAY WILL BE A NICE DAY ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY. THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES QUICKLY RISE
INTO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZES
OFF BOTH LAKE SUPERIOR/MICHIGAN WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR
THOSE SHORELINES A LITTLE COOLER. DO EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO
START LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.
THAT SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION...WILL QUICKLY LIFT NORTHEAST AND THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.
MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
WAVE...ALONG WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH INTO THE
AREA (PWATS RISING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES)...ALTHOUGH THERE CONTINUES
TO BE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION.
WITH THE CONSISTENCY OF THE MODELS IN MOVING THIS PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE U.P....WILL TREND THE POPS UP (GREATEST OVER THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA) FOR SUNDAY AND INCLUDE A BETTER ESTIMATE
ON THE TIMING. WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE SURGING INTO THE
AREA...DEFINITELY THINK SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE...BUT
FORTUNATELY THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FAIRLY
QUICKLY. THINK THUNDER WILL LARGELY BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST
PART OF THE CWA AND ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCES AT THIS TIME
(WHICH MAY END UP BEING OVERDONE).
BEHIND THAT WAVE OF PRECIPITATION...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BECOME WESTERLY FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...AS THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY COMING ONSHORE OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA MOVES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK. THAT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS FOR
MONDAY/TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA.
LAKE SUPERIOR COULD BE BRUSHED BY A FEW SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLIPS BY THE AREA...BUT IT APPEARS
THAT THE MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
RAIN NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO COME ON WEDNESDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE PULLS
OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION. SURPRISINGLY AT THIS POINT IN THE
FORECAST...THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE TIMING/TRACK
OF THE WAVE...SO WILL TREND POPS UP INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THAT MOVES THROUGH. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA AND LEAD TO A DRY DAY
ON THURSDAY. AS FOR TEMPS NEXT WEEK...THE WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD LEAD
TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY...THEN FALLING TO BELOW
NORMAL VALUES FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND BACK TOWARDS
NORMAL VALUES FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2015
HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY SHIFTING JUST N OF THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE
OVER KS AND IA WORKS ACROSS TO S LAKE MI BY 12Z FRIDAY AND EXITS
OVER S LOWER MI DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. VFR CEILINGS AND VIS SHOULD
LINGER AT ALL 3 TAF SITES. NEARING STEADING LIGHT RAIN FROM THE S
MAY MAKE IT INTO SAW LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. VFR CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2015
EXPECT PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG INTO FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE E HALF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 25KTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY SHIFT OUT OF THE AREA AS LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS S LAKE MI. THE
LOW WILL MOVE OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY MORNING AS A LARGE HIGH
MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE RIDGE WILL EXIT TO THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES SUNDAY NIGHT. A LOW OVER S WI SUNDAY MORNING WILL MERGE INTO
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH NEAR JAMES BAY ON MONDAY. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
E THROUGH MONDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...AND SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TITUS
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
352 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 504 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015
HEAVY RAIN AND NEED FOR HEADLINES TONIGHT IS MAIN CONCERN. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES SLIDES EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. SFC
LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS THIS MORNING LIFTS ACROSS WI TONIGHT
AND OVER LOWER MICHIGAN BY FRIDAY MORNING. WARM FRONT...ESPECIALLY
ALOFT...COMES CLOSE TO SOUTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT BUT REALLY NEVER MAKES IT INTO THE CWA. THINK THIS STALLED
OUT WARM FRONT ALOFT WILL HOLD KEY IN HEAVIEST RAIN STAYING ONLY
OVER SOUTHERN MENOMINEE COUNTY OR EVEN JUST TO THE SOUTH.
EXPECT LARGE SCALE LIFT TO SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA AS EARLY AS
THIS AFTN AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE SPREAD NORTHEAST FM THE PLAINS. ALREADY SEEING EXPANDING
SHIELD OF RAIN OVER SOUTHWEST MN AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS OVER
SOUTHERN THIRD OF MN. HRRR/RAP/NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS THIS AFTN INDICATE
THICKENING MID CLOUDS /H7-H5/ WITH DECENT LIFT IN THAT MOIST LAYER.
DRY LOW-LEVELS WILL HOLD OFF LIGHT RAIN FOR THE NORTH CWA...BUT
PERSISTENT LIFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST LIGHT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTN INTO SOUTHERN CWA AS SHOWN BY LATEST HRRR AND RAP MODELS.
BOOSTED SKY COVER AND BROUGHT SCT SHRA OVER MUCH OF SOUTH HALF OF
CWA AND EVEN SLIGHT CHANCES TO THE NORTH. KEWEENAW SHOULD STAY DRY
ALL DAY...AND PERHAPS ALL THE WAY THROUGH DURATION OF THE SYSTEM
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MOISTURE TRANSPORT RAMPS UP CONSIDERABLY AHEAD
OF MAIN SHORTWAVE ARRIVAL BUT THINK MAJORITY OF THE STRONGEST
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL STAY ALONG THE WARM FRONT ALOFT AT H85-H7.
LACK OF INSTABILITY ALOFT MAY ALSO ACT TO SHUNT HEAVIER RAIN TO THE
SOUTH AS WELL. MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAGNITUDE IS VERY IMPRESSIVE
THOUGH AND BELIEVE THERE IS OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTH OF ADVECTION TO
NUDGE THE WARM FRONT ALOFT AND MAX WARM AIR ADVECTION ALONG THE
BOUNDARY NORTH ENOUGH TO BRING HEAVIER QPF INTO AT LEAST MENOMINEE
COUNTY. THIS WOULD OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE SFC-H85 LOW
AND ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF SFC LOW OVER
WISCONSIN.
00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM-REGIONAL AND HIGHER RES GUIDANCE FM THE NSSL
WRF AND MORE THAN HALF OF THE NCAR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS POINT TO THAT
IDEA WITH HEAVIEST QPF AFTER 06Z AND PROBABLY AFT 09Z AND ONLY
LASTING TIL AROUND 12Z. GFS REALLY HAS TRENDED THIS WAY WITH ITS
LAST FEW RUNS. ON THE FLIP SIDE WOULD BE THE NCEP HIGH RES
GUIDANCE...KEEPING MAJORITY OF HEAVIER QPF JUST SOUTH OF MENOMINEE
COUNTY AND THE 06Z NAM REALLY TRENDING TOWARD LESS QPF OVER ALL BUT
FAR SOUTHERN MENONINEE COUNTY. ALL THAT SAID...MODEL TRENDS WITH
NORTH TO SOUTH EXTENT OF LIGHTER RAIN AND ALSO STRIPE OF HEAVIER
RAIN HAVE BEEN DIZZYING OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. CASE IN POINT IS THE
DPROG/DT OF THE RUN TOTAL QPF FM THE NAM ENDING AT 15Z ON FRIDAY.
18Z RUN ON 10 JUNE SHOWED OVER 2 INCHES AS FAR NW AT CRYSTAL FALLS
AND IRON MOUNTAIN...BUT NOW SHOWS BARELY ANY QPF AT CRYSTAL FALLS
WITH THIS 06Z RUN. GEM FOR LONGEST TIME WAS MAINLY SOUTH OF
MENOMINEE COUNTY WITH HEAVIER QPF...BUT JUST WITH 00Z RUN SHIFTED
FARTHER NORTH. ECMWF AND GFS HAVE BEEN MORE OR LESS PEGGING
NORTHEAST WI INTO SOUTH CENTRAL UPR MICHIGAN FOR HEAVIER STRIPE OF
QPF SINCE 12Z/9 JUNE RUN WITH MAIN CHANGES TYING TO HOW FAR NORTH
TO SPREAD LIGHTER QPF.
HAVE ISSUED A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK STATEMENT /ESFMQT/ FOR MENOMINEE
COUNTY TO ADDRESS THE HEAVY RAIN AND ASSOCIATED UNCERTAINTY. ALSO
HIGHLIGHTED POTENTIAL FLOODING THAT COULD OCCUR IF THE HEAVIER RAIN
SCENARIO ENDS UP VERIFYING. IN THAT CASE...PROBABLY LOOKING AT AT
LEAST 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN 3 HOURS...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE RFC FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE FOR MENONIMEE COUNTY. NEED AT LEAST 50 PERCENT
CONFIDENCE TO DO A WATCH...BUT GIVEN THE BACK AND FORTH TRENDS AND
AN OVERALL TREND TO BE MORE SUPRESSED WITH THE HEAVIEST QPF OFF THE
LATEST GUIANCE...WENT ESF ROUTE FOR NOW. ONE POSSIBLE KEY FOR THE
FORECAST MAY BE HOW MUCH RAIN OCCURS OVER SOUTHERN MN THROUGH 18Z
TODAY. SEEMS THAT IF THAT THERE HEAVIER RAIN VERIFIES THERE...
PROBABLY A BETTER SHOT OF SEEING HEAVY QPF OVER SCNTRL CWA TONIGHT.
BUT...THAT IS LOOKING AT THINGS IN A LINEAR FASHION WHICH AT TIMES
CAN BE EASY TO DO IN THIS PROFESSION...BUT NOT ALWAYS THE PROPER
COURSE OF ACTION. HOPEFULLY DAYSHIFT CAN GET SOME TRENDS TO BETTER
SEE IF HEAVY RAIN WILL IMPACT SCNTRL CWA OR WILL IT MISS CWA TO THE
SOUTH. DESPITE BEING WITHIN 24 HOURS NOW FM POSSIBLE HEAVY
RAIN...ESF ALLOWS FOR WIGGLE ROOM TO EITHER STEP INTO A WATCH OR
ADVISORY OR GO WITH NOTHING IF HEAVY RAIN AXIS SLIDES TO THE SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2015
THE PRECIPITATION THAT WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WILL HAVE DEPARTED THE AREA BY
THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. BEHIND THAT PRECIPITATION...AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN INTO SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A 1018MB
HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN SHIFT TO THE
EAST ON SATURDAY. WITH CLEARING SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW
(ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH)...SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER
LIGHT WINDS. PWAT VALUES ONLY FALL TO AROUND 0.4IN...SO DON/T
EXPECT LOWS TO FALL ENOUGH TO LEAD TO FROST CONCERNS...BUT STILL
THINK SOME OF THE TRADITIONAL COLD RAWS SITES TO FALL TO OR JUST
BELOW 40 DEGREES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LOWS IN THE REST OF THE AREA
TO BE IN THE 40S.
SATURDAY WILL BE A NICE DAY ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY. THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES QUICKLY RISE
INTO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZES
OFF BOTH LAKE SUPERIOR/MICHIGAN WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR
THOSE SHORELINES A LITTLE COOLER. DO EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO
START LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.
THAT SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION...WILL QUICKLY LIFT NORTHEAST AND THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.
MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
WAVE...ALONG WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH INTO THE
AREA (PWATS RISING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES)...ALTHOUGH THERE CONTINUES
TO BE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION.
WITH THE CONSISTENCY OF THE MODELS IN MOVING THIS PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE U.P....WILL TREND THE POPS UP (GREATEST OVER THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA) FOR SUNDAY AND INCLUDE A BETTER ESTIMATE
ON THE TIMING. WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE SURGING INTO THE
AREA...DEFINITELY THINK SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE...BUT
FORTUNATELY THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FAIRLY
QUICKLY. THINK THUNDER WILL LARGELY BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST
PART OF THE CWA AND ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCES AT THIS TIME
(WHICH MAY END UP BEING OVERDONE).
BEHIND THAT WAVE OF PRECIPITATION...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BECOME WESTERLY FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...AS THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY COMING ONSHORE OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA MOVES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK. THAT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS FOR
MONDAY/TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA.
LAKE SUPERIOR COULD BE BRUSHED BY A FEW SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLIPS BY THE AREA...BUT IT APPEARS
THAT THE MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
RAIN NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO COME ON WEDNESDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE PULLS
OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION. SURPRISINGLY AT THIS POINT IN THE
FORECAST...THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE TIMING/TRACK
OF THE WAVE...SO WILL TREND POPS UP INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THAT MOVES THROUGH. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA AND LEAD TO A DRY DAY
ON THURSDAY. AS FOR TEMPS NEXT WEEK...THE WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD LEAD
TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY...THEN FALLING TO BELOW
NORMAL VALUES FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND BACK TOWARDS
NORMAL VALUES FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2015
HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY SHIFTING JUST N OF THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE
OVER KS AND IA WORKS ACROSS TO S LAKE MI BY 12Z FRIDAY AND EXITS
OVER S LOWER MI DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. VFR CEILINGS AND VIS SHOULD
LINGER AT ALL 3 TAF SITES. NEARING STEADING LIGHT RAIN FROM THE S
MAY MAKE IT INTO SAW LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. VFR CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 504 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. LOW OVER THE PLAINS
WILL EJECT ACROSS SOUTHERN WI AND LOWER MI ON FRIDAY...BUT WINDS
WILL ONLY BRIEFLY INCREASE /STILL LESS THAN 25KTS/. HIGH PRESSURE
FILLS BACK IN AFTER THE LOW EXITS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATER
FRIDAY AND THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
258 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 504 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015
HEAVY RAIN AND NEED FOR HEADLINES TONIGHT IS MAIN CONCERN. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES SLIDES EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. SFC
LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS THIS MORNING LIFTS ACROSS WI TONIGHT
AND OVER LOWER MICHIGAN BY FRIDAY MORNING. WARM FRONT...ESPECIALLY
ALOFT...COMES CLOSE TO SOUTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT BUT REALLY NEVER MAKES IT INTO THE CWA. THINK THIS STALLED
OUT WARM FRONT ALOFT WILL HOLD KEY IN HEAVIEST RAIN STAYING ONLY
OVER SOUTHERN MENOMINEE COUNTY OR EVEN JUST TO THE SOUTH.
EXPECT LARGE SCALE LIFT TO SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA AS EARLY AS
THIS AFTN AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE SPREAD NORTHEAST FM THE PLAINS. ALREADY SEEING EXPANDING
SHIELD OF RAIN OVER SOUTHWEST MN AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS OVER
SOUTHERN THIRD OF MN. HRRR/RAP/NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS THIS AFTN INDICATE
THICKENING MID CLOUDS /H7-H5/ WITH DECENT LIFT IN THAT MOIST LAYER.
DRY LOW-LEVELS WILL HOLD OFF LIGHT RAIN FOR THE NORTH CWA...BUT
PERSISTENT LIFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST LIGHT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTN INTO SOUTHERN CWA AS SHOWN BY LATEST HRRR AND RAP MODELS.
BOOSTED SKY COVER AND BROUGHT SCT SHRA OVER MUCH OF SOUTH HALF OF
CWA AND EVEN SLIGHT CHANCES TO THE NORTH. KEWEENAW SHOULD STAY DRY
ALL DAY...AND PERHAPS ALL THE WAY THROUGH DURATION OF THE SYSTEM
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MOISTURE TRANSPORT RAMPS UP CONSIDERABLY AHEAD
OF MAIN SHORTWAVE ARRIVAL BUT THINK MAJORITY OF THE STRONGEST
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL STAY ALONG THE WARM FRONT ALOFT AT H85-H7.
LACK OF INSTABILITY ALOFT MAY ALSO ACT TO SHUNT HEAVIER RAIN TO THE
SOUTH AS WELL. MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAGNITUDE IS VERY IMPRESSIVE
THOUGH AND BELIEVE THERE IS OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTH OF ADVECTION TO
NUDGE THE WARM FRONT ALOFT AND MAX WARM AIR ADVECTION ALONG THE
BOUNDARY NORTH ENOUGH TO BRING HEAVIER QPF INTO AT LEAST MENOMINEE
COUNTY. THIS WOULD OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE SFC-H85 LOW
AND ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF SFC LOW OVER
WISCONSIN.
00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM-REGIONAL AND HIGHER RES GUIDANCE FM THE NSSL
WRF AND MORE THAN HALF OF THE NCAR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS POINT TO THAT
IDEA WITH HEAVIEST QPF AFTER 06Z AND PROBABLY AFT 09Z AND ONLY
LASTING TIL AROUND 12Z. GFS REALLY HAS TRENDED THIS WAY WITH ITS
LAST FEW RUNS. ON THE FLIP SIDE WOULD BE THE NCEP HIGH RES
GUIDANCE...KEEPING MAJORITY OF HEAVIER QPF JUST SOUTH OF MENOMINEE
COUNTY AND THE 06Z NAM REALLY TRENDING TOWARD LESS QPF OVER ALL BUT
FAR SOUTHERN MENONINEE COUNTY. ALL THAT SAID...MODEL TRENDS WITH
NORTH TO SOUTH EXTENT OF LIGHTER RAIN AND ALSO STRIPE OF HEAVIER
RAIN HAVE BEEN DIZZYING OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. CASE IN POINT IS THE
DPROG/DT OF THE RUN TOTAL QPF FM THE NAM ENDING AT 15Z ON FRIDAY.
18Z RUN ON 10 JUNE SHOWED OVER 2 INCHES AS FAR NW AT CRYSTAL FALLS
AND IRON MOUNTAIN...BUT NOW SHOWS BARELY ANY QPF AT CRYSTAL FALLS
WITH THIS 06Z RUN. GEM FOR LONGEST TIME WAS MAINLY SOUTH OF
MENOMINEE COUNTY WITH HEAVIER QPF...BUT JUST WITH 00Z RUN SHIFTED
FARTHER NORTH. ECMWF AND GFS HAVE BEEN MORE OR LESS PEGGING
NORTHEAST WI INTO SOUTH CENTRAL UPR MICHIGAN FOR HEAVIER STRIPE OF
QPF SINCE 12Z/9 JUNE RUN WITH MAIN CHANGES TYING TO HOW FAR NORTH
TO SPREAD LIGHTER QPF.
HAVE ISSUED A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK STATEMENT /ESFMQT/ FOR MENOMINEE
COUNTY TO ADDRESS THE HEAVY RAIN AND ASSOCIATED UNCERTAINTY. ALSO
HIGHLIGHTED POTENTIAL FLOODING THAT COULD OCCUR IF THE HEAVIER RAIN
SCENARIO ENDS UP VERIFYING. IN THAT CASE...PROBABLY LOOKING AT AT
LEAST 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN 3 HOURS...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE RFC FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE FOR MENONIMEE COUNTY. NEED AT LEAST 50 PERCENT
CONFIDENCE TO DO A WATCH...BUT GIVEN THE BACK AND FORTH TRENDS AND
AN OVERALL TREND TO BE MORE SUPRESSED WITH THE HEAVIEST QPF OFF THE
LATEST GUIANCE...WENT ESF ROUTE FOR NOW. ONE POSSIBLE KEY FOR THE
FORECAST MAY BE HOW MUCH RAIN OCCURS OVER SOUTHERN MN THROUGH 18Z
TODAY. SEEMS THAT IF THAT THERE HEAVIER RAIN VERIFIES THERE...
PROBABLY A BETTER SHOT OF SEEING HEAVY QPF OVER SCNTRL CWA TONIGHT.
BUT...THAT IS LOOKING AT THINGS IN A LINEAR FASHION WHICH AT TIMES
CAN BE EASY TO DO IN THIS PROFESSION...BUT NOT ALWAYS THE PROPER
COURSE OF ACTION. HOPEFULLY DAYSHIFT CAN GET SOME TRENDS TO BETTER
SEE IF HEAVY RAIN WILL IMPACT SCNTRL CWA OR WILL IT MISS CWA TO THE
SOUTH. DESPITE BEING WITHIN 24 HOURS NOW FM POSSIBLE HEAVY
RAIN...ESF ALLOWS FOR WIGGLE ROOM TO EITHER STEP INTO A WATCH OR
ADVISORY OR GO WITH NOTHING IF HEAVY RAIN AXIS SLIDES TO THE SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 513 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015
FRIDAY...EXPECT THE RAIN...MAINLY OVER THE SE HALF OF THE CWA...TO
END DURING THE MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
DYNAMICS MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THE FCST MAINTAINS CONTINUITY BY
FAVORING THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER NAM/REGIONAL-GEM/ECMWF COMPARED TO THE
FASTER GFS IN TIMING THE END OF THE PCPN. EXPECT SOME CLEARING LATER
INTO THE AFTERNOON CENTRAL AND EAST WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. INLAND TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT CLOUDS AND NE WINDS OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR
WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S NORTH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
FRI NIGHT AND SAT...SFC AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA. WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S. MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES SATURDAY WILL PUSH TEMPS TO AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S INLAND. LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL ALLOW
LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP KEEPING READINGS IN THE 60S ALONG THE LAKES.
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...A BROAD TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE NW CONUS
WITH RIDGING OVER THE SE WILL RESULT IN SW FLOW FROM THE PLAINS
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS SUGGEST A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING
FROM THE SRN PLAINS COULD SPREAD SHRA AND POSSIBLY A FEW TSRA INTO
THE WRN LAKES. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING/POSITION OF ANY
HEAVIER PCPN IS LIMITED...WITH PWATS CLIMBING AOA 1.5 INCH SOME
AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE.
MON-WED...AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS INTO NRN ONTARIO AND THE
MAIN SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE LAKES...EXPECT MAINLY
DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE EVEN IF ANY
WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA IN DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW. BY
WED...SHOWER CHANCES MAY INCREASE AS THE GFS/GEFS/ECMWF SUGGEST A
MID LEVEL AND SFC TROUGH WILL APPROACH OR MOVE INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2015
HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY SHIFTING JUST N OF THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE
OVER KS AND IA WORKS ACROSS TO S LAKE MI BY 12Z FRIDAY AND EXITS
OVER S LOWER MI DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. VFR CEILINGS AND VIS SHOULD
LINGER AT ALL 3 TAF SITES. NEARING STEADING LIGHT RAIN FROM THE S
MAY MAKE IT INTO SAW LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. VFR CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 504 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. LOW OVER THE PLAINS
WILL EJECT ACROSS SOUTHERN WI AND LOWER MI ON FRIDAY...BUT WINDS
WILL ONLY BRIEFLY INCREASE /STILL LESS THAN 25KTS/. HIGH PRESSURE
FILLS BACK IN AFTER THE LOW EXITS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATER
FRIDAY AND THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1220 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
EAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS... WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FROM WISCONSIN INTO NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. MEANWHILE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST FROM IOWA TO SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
RAIN CHANCES WILL TEMPORARILY DIMINISH OR END FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH OF THE STATE... BUT
INCREASE AGAIN FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT COMES
BACK NORTH AGAIN.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1149 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015
INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY...INCLUDING PUTTING LIKELY POPS OVER THE
SOUTHERN CWA. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH INTO THE CWA
THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...AND BEING NORTH
OF THE WARM FRONT THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THE INSTABILITY WILL
STRUGGLE SO THUNDERSTORM SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED MUCH OF THE DAY.
THERE COULD BE AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE TOWARD 00Z NEAR I-94 AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET APPROACHES AND INSTABILITY BUILDS. THESE I-94 STORMS
COULD ALSO TREND STRONGER. STILL BELIEVE THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN MOVES IN THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015
TWO THINGS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: THE FIRST WILL BE FOR SCATTERED
DISCRETE STRONG TO SVR CELLS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SW CORNER OF LWR MI
THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN RECENTLY ACTIVE NARROW WEST-EAST CORRIDOR NEAR
THE WARM FRONT. THERE WERE SEVERAL REPORTS OF SVR HAIL/WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY ACROSS NRN IL/IN INTO EXTREME SE LWR MI. THIS CORRIDOR IS
SHOWN TO DRIFT BACK SLOWLY NORTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HRRR AND
NSSL WRF SHOWING CONVECTIVE INITIATION AFTER 18Z SOUTH OF GRR IN THE
VAN BUREN/KALAMAZOO/CALHOUN COUNTY AREAS WHERE SFC CAPES RISE TO
1000- 2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON.
THE OTHER THING TO WATCH FOR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
IS ANY CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS MOVING EAST FROM THE ERN IA/SRN WI/NRN
IL AREA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE IMPRESSIVE TODAY WITH 40-60KT
SHOWN FOR 0-6KM. THIS SUPPORTS ORGANIZED CONVECTION RIDING EAST
ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT INTO SRN LWR MI WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF STRONG DAMAGING WINDS.
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY IN ADDITION TO A CONTINUED SVR
WEATHER THREAT RIDING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...A HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL DEVELOPS AS 40-50 KT SWLY LLJ DEVELOPS FROM THE
QUAD CITIES TOWARD NRN LWR MI WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES. THE SET UP
FAVORS HEAVIEST RAIN NEAR AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 10 WHERE OVER 2
INCHES COULD FALL. GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH EXPECTED FARTHER
SOUTH.
THE SVR WEATHER THREAT FOR FRIDAY IS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR
AND MAINLY BEFORE 21Z WHERE INSTABILITY MAY HAVE A CHANCE TO
RECOVER BY EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE FROPA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015
THE SUN THROUGH MON TIME FRAME LOOKS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE THROUGH
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS FCST FOR THAT TIME FRAME.
SAT NIGHT LOOKS TO CONTINUE THE MAINLY DRY PERIOD THAT WE WILL SEE
ON SAT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. UPPER RIDGING WILL BE IN THE
PROCESS OF MOVING OUT...AND IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE BIT TO SATURATE
THE AIR MASS ONCE AGAIN.
WE DO LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MOVE BACK IN DURING THE DAY ON
SUN AND CONTINUE THROUGH MON. WE WILL SEE THE MAIN TROUGH THAT WILL
BE AFFECTING THE DESERT SW FROM TODAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND EJECT TO
THE NE IN A SOMEWHAT SIMILAR FASHION TO THE WAVE COMING IN LATE
TONIGHT AND FRI. ANOTHER GOOD SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN AHEAD
OF THE WAVE...AND THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME DECENT INSTABILITY
TO BE PRESENT ON SUN. THE WAVE WILL MOVE BY ON MON...AND THE COLD
FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH DROPS DOWN ACROSS THE
MIDWEST.
WE HAVE DRIED THE FCST OUT A BIT FOR THE TUE AND TUE NIGHT TIME
FRAME. BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT IN PUSHING THE FRONT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
BY TUE INCREASES OUR THAT THE AREA WILL SEE A DRY DAY. THIS COULD
BE ANOTHER SHORT BREAK AS A SOMEWHAT ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AND WILL SEND SHORT WAVES THROUGH THE FLOW. THESE
SHORT WAVES COULD TOUCH OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS AS THEY RIDE ALONG
THE NEARLY STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINNING AGAIN ON WED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
GRADUALLY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY VFR.
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
SLOWLY NORTH INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND A LOW PRESSURE WAVE
TRACKS EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY FRIDAY.
CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY DIP DOWN INTO THE IFR FLIGHT CATEGORY AT
TIMES IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY.
HOWEVER PREVAILING CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD STAY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015
THE MAIN CONCERN OVER LK MI NEXT 48 HOURS IS FREQUENT TSTMS AND
AREAS OF DENSE FOG. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF STRONGER SSW FLOW LATER
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY SOUTH OF MUSKEGON OTHERWISE OFFSHORE FLOW
SHOULD LIMIT WAVE HEIGHTS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF MUSKEGON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1149 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015
RIVER LEVELS ACROSS THE LOWER PENINSULA ARE RUNNING NEAR TO SOMEWHAT
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE UPCOMING SYSTEM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY WILL FEATURE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND THUS THERE ARE SOME FLOODING CONCERNS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES AND APPROACHING 2 INCHES
FOR THURSDAY-FRIDAY ARE CLIMATOLOGICALLY AT LEAST 90TH PERCENTILE
FOR THIS AREA FOR EARLY-MID JUNE... PERHAPS NEAR RECORD.
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL... AND AT LEAST SHORT DURATION AREAL FLOODING
ISSUES WHERE STORMS PERSIST. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS A LOW LEVEL JET INTERSECTING A WARM FRONT
PRODUCES CONVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT. A BAND OF OVER 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL APPEARS LIKELY. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR OVER CENTRAL OR NORTHERN MICHIGAN...
WHICH WOULD INCLUDE COUNTIES IN OUR NORTHERN CWA AS WELL AS WFO
GAYLORD`S AREA. INCREASED SOIL MOISTURE AND RIVER LEVELS AFTER THIS
EVENT WILL SET THE BASELINE FOR INCREASED HYDRO CONCERNS INTO NEXT
WEEK AS ADDITIONAL WAVES OF PRECIPITATION MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JK
SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...MEADE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1216 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015
...UPDATED HYDROLOGY AND AVIATION DISCUSSIONS...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS...HEAVY RAIN AND
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...THEN DECREASING COVERAGE OF
STORMS/SHOWERS TONIGHT.
A PARADE OF SHORT WAVES WERE NOTED ON THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY WITH THE REMNANTS OF BLANCA AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM
NEBRASKA WEST TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. 4 TO 8 DEG C H7 DEWPOINTS
WERE COMMON OVER A LARGE AREA. THE 00Z OAX SOUNDING HAD 1.53 PWAT
WITH INSTABILITY AT 3300J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS ERUPTED NEAR THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND ALSO ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
OVERNIGHT THESE STORMS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP AND PER THE RECENT
WSR-88D RADAR STRETCHED FROM SOUTHERN MN THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND IOWA INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS. ADDITIONAL
STORMS WERE LOCATED TO THE WEST OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA.
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS WERE TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE HEAVY
RAIN OVERNIGHT SAVE FOR THE 00Z NCEP HRRR WHICH WAS A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH...BUT STILL LACKED THE STORMS FARTHER SOUTH MORE INTO KS.
THE STORMS IN WESTERN NEBRASKA SHOULD TRACK FARTHER NORTH
COMPARED TO THE AREA WITH RAIN THAT FELL OVER THE LAST 12HRS.
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THE RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE OF THE JET
CONTINUES THROUGH 18Z IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. THE BEST OMEGA IS
OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN SHIFTS TOWARD SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA TOWARD 18Z...BUT LINGERS IN SOUTHWEST IOWA THROUGH 00Z.
THE H7 WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA CONTINUES IN
EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING...THEN SHIFTS MORE INTO IOWA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH 1.5 TO 2.0
INCHES OF PWAT. THE LOW LEVEL JET OF 40 TO 50 KTS WHICH HAS AIDED
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT CONTINUES THIS MORNING...BUT SHIFTS INTO
WESTERN IOWA. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS THIS MORNING AND THEN TREND
HIGHER POPS WITH THE DEFORMATION BAND AND ALONG THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY LOWERING SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE
EVENING.
THIS AFTERNOON...WILL NEED TO WATCH SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/SOUTHWEST
IOWA ALONG THE FRONT AS INSTABILITY INCREASES TO 2000-3000 J/KG AND
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE/ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DRIER AIR ARRIVES FOR FRIDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH
TOWARD SOUTHERN KANSAS. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTH ACROSS
KANSAS AND INTO NEBRASKA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL
RETURN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SPOTTY
STORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL
FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE MID 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS CONTINUE AT ALL SITES. THINK KLNK/KOMA MAY
SEE A BRIEF BREAK THIS AFTERNOON AS DRY SLOT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA...BUT OTHERWISE...GUIDANCE INDICATES THOSE CEILINGS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFR AT KOFK.
HAVE INDICATED CEILINGS BREAKING LATE MORNING TOMORROW...BUT HAVE
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THAT EVOLUTION. WINDS AT KLNK/KOMA MAY BE
VARIABLE FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SETTLING TO
NORTHEASTERLY...THEN NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY...BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SURFACE LOW.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015
MORNING FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELED AS RAIN MOVES OUT OF
THE AREA. THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING RAINS HIT HARDEST IN A
CORRIDOR FROM SEWARD/SALINE COUNTIES THROUGH LANCASTER/CASS/OTOE
AND INTO FREMONT/PAGE/MONTGOMERY. THAT CORRIDOR IS ALSO THE MOST
LIKELY AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
STORMS SLIDING OUT OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/SOUTHWEST IOWA BY AROUND
00Z. COVERAGE MAY BE SCATTERED (ESPECIALLY INITIALLY) AND STORMS
MAY BE TRANSIENT...BUT HEAVY RAINS WITH STORMS WOULD FALL ON
SATURATED SOIL AND COULD QUICKLY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING PROBLEMS.
FOR THAT REASON...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA/SOUTHWEST IOWA FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ065>068-078-
089>093.
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ079-080-090-
091.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...MAYES
HYDROLOGY...MAYES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ELKO NV
303 PM PDT THU JUN 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR
EASTERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN POPPING UP
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. EXPECTING WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
TOMORROW AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
FEATURES A TROF OVER UT/AZ WITH THE RIDGE AXIS BISECTING OREGON
AND IDAHO. THE PWS CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE
LKN CWA...AND CLIMATE-WISE ARE RANGING 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE FETCH OF MOISTURE ANCHORED OVER EASTERN NV
AND UTAH. THE OBSERVED DEWPOINTS FOR WESTERN NV HAVE PLUMMETED
TODAY...AND EXPECTING THAT DRY AIR TO PUSH EASTWARD...SHUTTING
DOWN THE CONVECTION LATER TONIGHT. THE HRRR HAS THE
CONVECTION...TAPERING OFF AFTER 3Z. THE GFS AND NAM ARE PRETTY
TAME FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...SO ADJUSTED POPS
DOWN THIS PACKAGE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...JUST
ANTICIPATING A WARMING TREND.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. LONG RANGE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUPPORT A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. AFTER A QUITE SATURDAY
NIGHT...INSTABILITY INCREASES SOME ESPECIALLY FROM THE NEVADA
CONVERGENCE ZONE EASTWARD WHERE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY
RIDING ALONG THE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL ENHANCE INSTABILITY OVER
NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEVADA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOLLOWING
THIS WEAK SHORT WAVE...A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF WARM DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. NEAR NORMAL NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ABOVE
NORMAL AFTERNOON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES DRIER
AIR SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH HUMBOLDT...EXTREME WESTERN ELKO
AND NORTHERN LANDER/EUREKA COUNTIES. SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS AREA
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS WEST OF WELLS AND
CLOVER VALLEY AND IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST LANDER AND NORTHWEST NYE
COUNTIES ATTM. LOCALLY BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST CORES INTO THIS EVENING. KELY/KTPH AND
POSSIBLY KEKO WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS ACTIVITY. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE STRONGEST CORES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. EXPECTING DRIER CONDITIONS TOMORROW.
A WARMING TREND IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...ALL THE WHILE THE HAINES VALUES ARE
INCREASING ACROSS SILVER STATE.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
97/89/89
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1253 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015
SPC MESO PAGE SHOWS AROUND 500 J/KG MU CAPE AT 17Z FAR NRN RRV
INTO SE MANITOBA. HRRR HAS SEVERAL CAPE AS WELL DEVELOPING INTO
ECNTRL ND. SOME ENCHANCED CU DEVELOPING IN THIS GENERAL REGION OF
HIGHER CAPE. SO ISOLATED T-STORM IDEA SEEMS REASONABLE AND KEPT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015
PRECIP CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST
HEADACHE FOR THE PERIOD.
WV LOOP SHOWS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO OUR SOUTH...AND MODELS
ALL HAVE THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO SOUTHERN MN AND IA TODAY. THE MAIN
SFC LOW AND FRONTS WILL BE WELL TO OUR SOUTH...WITH ONLY MAYBE THE
FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES GETTING SWIPED BY THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM.
MANY OF THE MODELS BREAK OUT SPOTTY SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CWA ALSO. THERE IS NOT MUCH TO HANG ON AT
THE SFC...WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS. HOWEVER...THERE IS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM IN CANADA...WHICH SHOULD IMPACT OUR CWA
LATER TODAY. EVEN PEAK HEATING WITH HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 70S
THIS AFTERNOON GIVES AROUND 500 J/KG MAX...SO THINK THAT ANY
ACTIVITY WILL BE NON SEVERE IF IT THUNDERS AT ALL. STILL ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE SOME ISOLATED POPS IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DIURNAL AND DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET.
TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY QUIET AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
EXITS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND DECREASING CLOUDS WE SHOULD DROP DOWN INTO THE LOW
TO MID 50S. FRIDAY WILL ALSO BE VERY TRANQUIL WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
BRIEFLY BUILDING OVER THE REGION. SOUTH WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...AND WITH GOOD MIXING AND
SUNSHINE TEMPS SHOULD GET CLOSE TO THE 80 MARK AT LEAST IN THE
WESTERN CWA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...FLOW STARTS TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. WEAK
SHORTWAVES ARE HARD TO PICK OUT AT THIS POINT...BUT MODELS ARE
PRETTY CONSISTENT ON BRINGING THE SFC TROUGH FROM WESTERN ND INTO
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE ON SATURDAY...THEN SLOWLY
APPROACHING THE WESTERN CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE SOME
PRECIP ACTIVITY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN EXACTLY HOW FAST THE PRECIP MOVES INTO OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES AND HOW STRONG CONVECTION WILL BE. FOR NOW STARTED
RAMPING UP POPS FOR THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPS THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND WILL
BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.
SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT BRINGING IN
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH SOME THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND COOLER TEMPS BEHIND IT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MONDAY RIGHT NOW LOOKS MAINLY DRY UNDER SFC HIGH PRESSURE...ALTHOUGH
NOT TERRIBLY CONFIDENT IN ANY PERIOD GIVEN THE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. FOR EXAMPLE...THE GEM/GFS/ECMWF ALL
INDICATE A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DURING THE TUE/WED PERIOD
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT ALL DIFFER ON TIMING/PLACEMENT. THE
GENERAL PATTERN DOES SUGGEST INTERMITTENT CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE
STRONGER MID/UPPER FLOW OVER THE REGION...WHICH IS TYPICAL FOR MID
JUNE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
WILL BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHERLY LATER IN THE PERIOD AS THE RIDGE
RETREATS EAST. ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY STABLE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND ANY CONVECTION WOULD BE VERY
ISOLD SO WILL HOLD OFF ANY MENTION ATTM.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...HOPKINS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
354 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE STATIONARY JUST NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE
80 CORRIDOR INTO FRIDAY MORNING...ACTING AS THE FOCUS FOR
ISOLATED-SCATTERED MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY BACK TO THE NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY...KEEPING MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA IN A VERY WARM AND RATHER HUMID AIRMASS.
ANOTHER...SLIGHTLY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS SATURDAY. LOWER
HUMIDITY AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. PERSISTENT WESTERLY
FLOW FROM THE WESTERN GLAKES TO PENNSYLVANIA WILL BRING A FEW MORE
WEAK DISTURBANCES AND CHANCES FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ANALYZED AT 18Z RIGHT ALONG THE LENGTH OF INTERSTATE
80 ACROSS PRACTICALLY ALL OF PENN. A SLIGHT SWD DRIFT TO THIS
FRONT IS POSSIBLE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
FCST SOUNDINGS /AND VISUAL INTERROGATION OF THE CU OUT THE WINDOW/ SHOW
THAT THE LFC IS BEING REACHED ATTM AS CU ARE SHOWING SOME VERTICAL
DVLPMT /BUT STILL BEING PINCHED OFF/. THIS SHOULD CHANGE OVER THE
NEXT HOUR AS AN ADDITIONAL FEW DEG F OF HEATING AND CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND IT`S WEAK-MDT LLVL THETA-E CONVERGENCE
HELPS THE CU TO PENETRATE THE WEAK MID-LEVEL CAP AND GROW INTO
ISOLATED-SCT TSRA.
MORE TRUST IN HRRR MODEL /AND IT`S TIME AND PLACEMENT OF
CONVECTION/ THAN YESTERDAY/S MIDDAY RUNS...BASED ON MID LEVEL
TEMPS/CAPPING BEING ABOUT 2-3C LOWER. ALL OTHER OPERATION GUIDANCE
AND 03Z SREF POINTS TWD WCENT PENN...EAST TO THE MID SUSQ VALLEY
AND SRN POCONOS /NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF I-80/ BEING THE CROSS-
HAIRS FOR SCTD SHRA AND ISOLATED...TALL PULSE TSRA. FIRST TIME
THIS YEAR...I RECALL SEEING SOME LOW END CHANCES /30-40 PERCENT/
FOR CAPE ABOVE 3000 J/KG ON THE SREF HERE IN CENTRAL PENN.
VERY INTERESTING TO NOTE THE DISTINCT COLD POOLS DEVELOPED BY THE
HRRR FROM THE CONVECTION DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WE KNOW THAT STORMS WILL FAIRLY EASILY BREAK THE MID-LEVEL CAP
THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL SEE TSRA ON RADAR. THE BILLION DOLLAR
QUESTION IS EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE.
STILL PPINE AS OF 18Z...HOWEVER...THE LATEST 16Z HRRR RUN
CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE FIRST STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR I-80 AND INVOF KDUJ AND KFIG BETWEEN
18-19Z...THEN PROPAGATE GENERALLY TO THE EAST. SOME DEVIANT CELL
MOTION TO THE NE OR SE IS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY INVOF THE LARGER
COLD POOLS.
WESTERLY LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE IN THE 25-30KT RANGE THROUGH
THE REST OF DAY. CAPES FROM SOME MDLS ARE GIANT - 2500-3000 J/KG
IN THE CENTRAL COS. THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTHWARD FROM IT/S SEEMING
CURRENT W-E POSITION OVER THE NRN TIER. MDLS AGREE THAT THE
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ONLY SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD KEEPING THE W-E
ORIENTATION. THEREFORE...THE HIGHER 35-40 POPS WILL BE DRAWN OVER
FIG-UNV-SEG-MUI.
THE STRONGER CAP IN PLACE OVER THE SRN TIER...AND GREATER DISTANCE
FROM THE FRONT WILL LIKELY THWART MOST ATTEMPTS TO GENERATE DEEP
CONVECTION THERE. SO...LOWER POPS THERE. THE LACK OF MOISTURE
NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP POPS LOWER IN THE NORTHERN TIER AS
WELL.
TEMPS ON TRACK TO TRY TO TICKLE RECORD HIGHS FOR THE DATE...BUT
WILL LIKELY FALL 1-3 DEG F SHORT. PLACES ALONG THE MASON- DIXON
LINE WILL GET VERY CLOSE TO 90F. HRRR SHOWS TEMPS NEAR 90F EVEN
THROUGHOUT THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL PENN...WHILE THE NORTHERN MTNS
GET CLOSE TO 80F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANY ISOLATED-SCT CONVECTION STRUNG OUT NEAR THE I-80 CORRIDOR SHOULD
WANE IN THE EARLY EVENING WITH NO SUPPORT FROM ANY SIG JET STREAK
OR LLVL WINDS/MOISTURE ADVECTION. THE QUASI STNRY FRONT SLIDES
NORTHWARD A BIT AND COULD MAKE A SPRINKLE IN THE N/W. MORE-
CERTAINLY...THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHT MUGGINESS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL STAY MILD/WARM WITH MINS IN THE L-MID 60S
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENN...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
NORTH TIER OF PENN.
HEIGHTS DO NOT CHANGE AT ALL FRIDAY...SO POPS SHOULD BE LOWER IN
THE S...BUT ELEVATED HEATING SURFACES - LIKE THE LAURELS - MAY
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO POP SCT T/SHRA. THE DEEP MIXING ON FRIDAY
WILL PUSH THE 8H TEMPS TO 20C. MAXES IN THE 90S ARE EXPECTED IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 80S EVEN ON THE HILL TOPS OF NRN PENN.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GLAKES BRINGING MODERATE
CHCS FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA ACROSS NW PENN.
ISOLATED-SCTD LATE DAY/EVENING SHRA AND TSRA WILL OCCUR LATE FRI
AND FRI NIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES AND SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUBTROPICAL LONGWAVE RIDGE...BERMUDA HIGH...IS FORECAST TO BUILD
NWD ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. BY THE WEEKEND AND MAINTAIN POSITION
INTO NEXT WEEK. VERY WARM AND HUMID WEATHER LOOKS TO BE THE RULE FOR
THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. PAINTED GENERALLY CHANCE POPS EACH
DAY WITH AS MUCH CONFIDENCE AS POSSIBLE. SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
HIGHER POPS LOOK TO EXIST DURING THE PERIOD AS OUTLINED NEXT.
A WEAKENING MID LVL TROUGH IS FCST TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES/NORTHEAST INTO SATURDAY AND SHOULD PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALONG THE LOWER LAKES SWD INTO CENTRAL PA. SCT TSTMS SHOULD
DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVG BOUNDARY WITH A MODEL
CONSENSUS FAVORING THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE
BUILDING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HOLD THE
WAVY/INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE FRONT INVOF THE MASON DIXON LINE. THERE
IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH DRY AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT
AS THE GEFS FCSTS A NOTABLE DROP IN PWATS SAT NGT-SUN BEFORE
ANOMALOUS MSTR/PWATS SURGE BACK INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN MCS TYPE COMPLEX MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA NEXT WEEK BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE DETAILS ESPECIALLY AT
THIS RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STAY STRETCHED OUT ALONG
MUCH OF INTERSTATE 80 IN PENN LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THIS FRONT COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED-SCATTERED LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING
TSRA IN THE VICINITY OF KAOO- KFIG- KUNV- KSEG.
INCLUDED MENTION OF VCTS IN SEVERAL CENTRAL PENN TAFS THROUGH
ABOUT 00Z FRIDAY.
LATER TONIGHT...LIGHT WIND WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH DEWPOINT AIR AND
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OF THE GROUND TO PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR
HAZE/FOG AND PERHAPS SOME PATCHY MVFR STRATUS/STRATO CU.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE UNTIL AROUND 12Z...THEN VFR
WITH ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS...MAINLY NW MTNS AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS...MAINLY SOUTH.
SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
MON...PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W MTNS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
FCST HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY ARE IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES FOR BOTH HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT.
THIS IS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF RECORDS FOR EACH DATE.
FOR TODAY...RECORD HIGH IS 92 IN HARRISBURG AND 93 IN
WILLIAMSPORT /BOTH SET IN 1925/.
FOR FRIDAY...RECORD HIGH IS 91 IN HARRISBURG AND 92 IN
WILLIAMSPORT /BOTH SET IN 1925/.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
245 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE STATIONARY JUST NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE
80 CORRIDOR INTO FRIDAY MORNING...ACTING AS THE FOCUS FOR
ISOLATED-SCATTERED MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY BACK TO THE NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY...KEEPING MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA IN A VERY WARM AND RATHER HUMID AIRMASS.
ANOTHER...SLIGHTLY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS SATURDAY. LOWER
HUMIDITY AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. PERSISTENT WESTERLY
FLOW FROM THE WESTERN GLAKES TO PENNSYLVANIA WILL BRING A FEW MORE
WEAK DISTURBANCES AND CHANCES FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ANALYZED AT 18Z RIGHT ALONG THE LENGTH OF INTERSTATE
80 ACROSS PRACTICALLY ALL OF PENN. A SLIGHT SWD DRIFT TO THIS
FRONT IS POSSIBLE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
FCST SOUNDINGS /AND VISUAL INTERROGATION OF THE CU OUT THE WINDOW/ SHOW
THAT THE LFC IS BEING REACHED ATTM AS CU ARE SHOWING SOME VERTICAL
DVLPMT /BUT STILL BEING PINCHED OFF/. THIS SHOULD CHANGE OVER THE
NEXT HOUR AS AN ADDITIONAL FEW DEG F OF HEATING AND CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND IT`S WEAK-MDT LLVL THETA-E CONVERGENCE
HELPS THE CU TO PENETRATE THE WEAK MID-LEVEL CAP AND GROW INTO
ISOLATED-SCT TSRA.
MORE TRUST IN HRRR MODEL /AND IT`S TIME AND PLACEMENT OF
CONVECTION/ THAN YESTERDAY/S MIDDAY RUNS...BASED ON MID LEVEL
TEMPS/CAPPING BEING ABOUT 2-3C LOWER. ALL OTHER OPERATION GUIDANCE
AND 03Z SREF POINTS TWD WCENT PENN...EAST TO THE MID SUSQ VALLEY
AND SRN POCONOS /NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF I-80/ BEING THE CROSS-
HAIRS FOR SCTD SHRA AND ISOLATED...TALL PULSE TSRA. FIRST TIME
THIS YEAR...I RECALL SEEING SOME LOW END CHANCES /30-40 PERCENT/
FOR CAPE ABOVE 3000 J/KG ON THE SREF HERE IN CENTRAL PENN.
VERY INTERESTING TO NOTE THE DISTINCT COLD POOLS DEVELOPED BY THE
HRRR FROM THE CONVECTION DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WE KNOW THAT STORMS WILL FAIRLY EASILY BREAK THE MID-LEVEL CAP
THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL SEE TSRA ON RADAR. THE BILLION DOLLAR
QUESTION IS EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE.
STILL PPINE AS OF 18Z...HOWEVER...THE LATEST 16Z HRRR RUN
CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE FIRST STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR I-80 AND INVOF KDUJ AND KFIG BETWEEN
18-19Z...THEN PROPAGATE GENERALLY TO THE EAST. SOME DEVIANT CELL
MOTION TO THE NE OR SE IS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY INVOF THE LARGER
COLD POOLS.
WESTERLY LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE IN THE 25-30KT RANGE THROUGH
THE REST OF DAY. CAPES FROM SOME MDLS ARE GIANT - 2500-3000 J/KG
IN THE CENTRAL COS. THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTHWARD FROM IT/S SEEMING
CURRENT W-E POSITION OVER THE NRN TIER. MDLS AGREE THAT THE
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ONLY SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD KEEPING THE W-E
ORIENTATION. THEREFORE...THE HIGHER 35-40 POPS WILL BE DRAWN OVER
FIG-UNV-SEG-MUI.
THE STRONGER CAP IN PLACE OVER THE SRN TIER...AND GREATER DISTANCE
FROM THE FRONT WILL LIKELY THWART MOST ATTEMPTS TO GENERATE DEEP
CONVECTION THERE. SO...LOWER POPS THERE. THE LACK OF MOISTURE
NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP POPS LOWER IN THE NORTHERN TIER AS
WELL.
TEMPS ON TRACK TO TRY TO TICKLE RECORD HIGHS FOR THE DATE...BUT
WILL LIKELY FALL 1-3 DEG F SHORT. PLACES ALONG THE MASON- DIXON
LINE WILL GET VERY CLOSE TO 90F. HRRR SHOWS TEMPS NEAR 90F EVEN
THROUGHOUT THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL PENN...WHILE THE NORTHERN MTNS
GET CLOSE TO 80F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANY ISOLATED-SCT CONVECTION STRUNG OUT NEAR THE I-80 CORRIDOR SHOULD
WANE IN THE EARLY EVENING WITH NO SUPPORT FROM ANY SIG JET STREAK
OR LLVL WINDS/MOISTURE ADVECTION. THE QUASI STNRY FRONT SLIDES
NORTHWARD A BIT AND COULD MAKE A SPRINKLE IN THE N/W. MORE-
CERTAINLY...THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHT MUGGINESS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL STAY MILD/WARM WITH MINS IN THE L-MID 60S
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENN...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
NORTH TIER OF PENN.
HEIGHTS DO NOT CHANGE AT ALL FRIDAY...SO POPS SHOULD BE LOWER IN
THE S...BUT ELEVATED HEATING SURFACES - LIKE THE LAURELS - MAY
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO POP SCT T/SHRA. THE DEEP MIXING ON FRIDAY
WILL PUSH THE 8H TEMPS TO 20C. MAXES IN THE 90S ARE EXPECTED IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 80S EVEN ON THE HILL TOPS OF NRN PENN.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GLAKES BRINGING MODERATE
CHCS FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA ACROSS NW PENN.
ISOLATED-SCTD LATE DAY/EVENING SHRA AND TSRA WILL OCCUR LATE FRI
AND FRI NIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES AND SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAKENING MID LVL TROUGH IS FCST TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES/NORTHEAST INTO SATURDAY AND SHOULD PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALONG THE LOWER LAKES SWD INTO CENTRAL PA. SCT TSTMS SHOULD
DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVG BOUNDARY WITH A MODEL
CONSENSUS FAVORING THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE
BUILDING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HOLD THE
WAVY/INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE FRONT INVOF THE MASON DIXON LINE. THERE
IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH DRY AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT
AS THE GEFS FCSTS A NOTABLE DROP IN PWATS SAT NGT-SUN BEFORE
ANOMALOUS MSTR/PWATS SURGE BACK INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN MCS TYPE COMPLEX MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA NEXT WEEK BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE DETAILS ESPECIALLY AT
THIS RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STAY STRETCHED OUT ALONG
MUCH OF INTERSTATE 80 IN PENN LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THIS FRONT COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED-SCATTERED LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING
TSRA IN THE VICINITY OF KAOO- KFIG- KUNV- KSEG.
INCLUDED MENTION OF VCTS IN SEVERAL CENTRAL PENN TAFS THROUGH
ABOUT 00Z FRIDAY.
LATER TONIGHT...LIGHT WIND WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH DEWPOINT AIR AND
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OF THE GROUND TO PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR
HAZE/FOG AND PERHAPS SOME PATCHY MVFR STRATUS/STRATO CU.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE UNTIL AROUND 12Z...THEN VFR
WITH ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS...MAINLY NW MTNS AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS...MAINLY SOUTH.
SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
MON...PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W MTNS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
FCST HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY ARE IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES FOR BOTH HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT.
THIS IS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF RECORDS FOR EACH DATE.
FOR TODAY...RECORD HIGH IS 92 IN HARRISBURG AND 93 IN
WILLIAMSPORT /BOTH SET IN 1925/.
FOR FRIDAY...RECORD HIGH IS 91 IN HARRISBURG AND 92 IN
WILLIAMSPORT /BOTH SET IN 1925/.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT
CLIMATE...LAMBERT/HAGNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1227 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE STATIONARY JUST NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE
80 CORRIDOR INTO FRIDAY MORNING...ACTING AS THE FOCUS FOR
ISOLATED-SCATTERED MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY BACK TO THE NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY...KEEPING MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA IN A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. ANOTHER...SLIGHTLY
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS SATURDAY. LOWER HUMIDITY AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. PERSISTENT WESTERLY FLOW FROM THE WESTERN
GLAKES TO PENNSYLVANIA WILL BRING A FEW MORE WEAK DISTURBANCES AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY AT 16Z...FROM THE
NORTHERN POCONOS...WEST TO NEAR KIPT AND KDUJ. A SLIGHT SWD DRIFT
TO THIS FRONT IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
MORE TRUST IN HRRR MODEL /AND IT`S TIME AND PLACEMENT OF
CONVECTION/ THAN YESTERDAY/S MIDDAY RUNS...BASED ON MID LEVEL
TEMPS/CAPPING BEING ABOUT 2-3C LOWER. ALL OTHER OPERATION GUIDANCE
AND 03Z SREF POINTS TWD WCENT PENN...EAST TO THE MID SUSQ VALLEY
AND SRN POCONOS /NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF I-80/ BEING THE CROSS-
HAIRS FOR SCATTERED/TALL PULSE TSRA. FIRST TIME THIS YEAR...I
RECALL SEEING SOME LOW END CHANCES /30-40 PERCENT/ FOR CAPE ABOVE
3000 J/KG ON THE SREF HERE IN CENTRAL PENN.
VERY INTERESTING TO NOTE THE DISTINCT COLD POOLS DEVELOPED BY THE
HRRR FROM THE CONVECTION DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WE KNOW THAT STORMS WILL FAIRLY EASILY BREAK THE MID-LEVEL CAP
THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL SEE TSRA ON RADAR. THE BILLION DOLLAR
QUESTION IS EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE.
STILL PPINE AS OF 16Z...HOWEVER...THE LATEST 14Z HRRR RUN
CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE FIRST STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR I-80 AND INVOF KDUJ AND KFIG BETWEEN
18-19Z...THEN PROPAGATE GENERALLY TO THE EAST. SOME DEVIANT CELL
MOTION TO THE NE OR SE IS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY INVOF THE LARGER
COLD POOLS.
WESTERLY LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE IN THE 25-30KT RANGE THROUGH
THE REST OF DAY. CAPES FROM SOME MDLS ARE GIANT - 2500-3000 J/KG
IN THE CENTRAL COS. THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTHWARD FROM IT/S SEEMING
CURRENT W-E POSITION OVER THE NRN TIER. MDLS AGREE THAT THE
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ONLY SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD KEEPING THE W-E
ORIENTATION. THEREFORE...THE HIGHER 35-40 POPS WILL BE DRAWN OVER
FIG-UNV-SEG-MUI.
THE STRONGER CAP IN PLACE OVER THE SRN TIER...AND GREATER DISTANCE
FROM THE FRONT WILL LIKELY THWART MOST ATTEMPTS TO GENERATE DEEP
CONVECTION THERE. SO...LOWER POPS THERE. THE LACK OF MOISTURE
NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP POPS LOWER IN THE NORTHERN TIER AS
WELL.
MAXES WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER OF COURSE. BUT THE
MORNING CROP OF CLOUDS SHOULD BE MAINLY MID CLOUDS AND WILL ERODE
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND SHOW SOME BIG BREAKS. NOT CLOUDY
ENOUGH TO KEEP THE ALMOST FULL JUNE SUN FROM HEATING THINGS UP
SIGNIFICANTLY. PLACES ALONG THE MASON- DIXON LINE WILL GET VERY
CLOSE TO 90F. HRRR SHOWS TEMPS NEAR 90F EVEN THROUGHOUT THE
VALLEYS OF CENTRAL PENN...WHILE THE NORTHERN MTNS GET CLOSE TO
80F
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
CONVECTION SHOULD WANE IN THE EARLY EVENING WITH NO SUPPORT FROM
ANY SIG JET STREAK OR LLVL WINDS/MOISTURE ADVECTION. FRONT SLIDES
NORTHWARD A BIT AND COULD MAKE A SPRINKLE IN THE N/W. MORE-
CERTAINLY...THE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL STAY MILD/WARM WITH MINS IN THE 60S.
HEIGHTS DO NOT CHANGE AT ALL...SO POPS SHOULD BE LOWER IN THE
S...BUT ELEVATED HEATING SURFACES - LIKE THE LAURELS - MAY PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT TO POP SCT T/SHRA. THE DEEP MIXING ON FRIDAY WILL PUSH
THE 8H TEMPS TO 20C. MAXES IN THE 90S ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 80S EVEN ON THE HILL TOPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE FRI-TUE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED
BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDING WWD FROM THE WRN ATLC OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS WILL FAVOR
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
FOCUSED WITHIN PLUME OF ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE/PWATS POOLING AROUND
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY
WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 90F EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. STRONG
HEATING OF A MOIST BLYR/60+ SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD SUPPORT SOME
WEAKLY FORCED DIURNAL CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH
POSSIBLE TRIGGER FOCUS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OR LEE SFC
TROUGH. A WEAKENING MID LVL TROUGH IS FCST TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST INTO SATURDAY AND SHOULD PUSH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALONG THE LOWER LAKES SWD INTO CENTRAL PA. SCT TSTMS
SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVG BOUNDARY WITH A MODEL
CONSENSUS FAVORING THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE
BUILDING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HOLD THE
WAVY/INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE FRONT INVOF THE MASON DIXON LINE. THERE
IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH DRY AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT
AS THE GEFS FCSTS A NOTABLE DROP IN PWATS SAT NGT-SUN BEFORE
ANOMALOUS MSTR/PWATS SURGE BACK INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN MCS TYPE COMPLEX MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA NEXT WEEK BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE DETAILS ESPECIALLY AT
THIS RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND
BECOME LOCATED NEAR INTERSTATE 80 THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
AREAS OF MVFR STRATO CU NORTH OF THE FRONT INVOF KBFD...AND AREAS
OF MVFR HAZE SOUTH OF THE FRONT...HAVE IMPROVED TO MAINLY VFR AS
OF 15Z.
THE STALLED SFC FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL PA COULD TRIGGER SCT MID
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING TSRA IN THE VICINITY OF KFIG- KUNV-
KSEG. HOWEVER...NO EXPLICIT MENTION IN THE TAFS DUE TO EXPECTED
RELATIVELY SPARSE COVERAGE AND UNCERTAIN TIMING.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS...MAINLY NW MTNS.
SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS...MAINLY SOUTH.
SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
MON...PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W MTNS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
1113 AM MDT THU JUN 11 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 914 AM MDT THU JUN 11 2015
UPPER WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN SD/NE. STATIONARY BOUNDARY
IS DRAPED OVER THE EASTERN WY BORDER...AND SURFACE HIGH IS PUSHING
IN FROM THE NORTH. SHOWERS COVER MUCH OF WESTERN SD...WITH
NORTHEAST WY FAIRLY DRY FOR NOW. DEBATED CANCELING THE
WATCH...BUT HRRR AND NAM ARE SHOWING SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION
OVER WATCH AREA WITH MARGINAL CAPE AND WEAK SHEAR. MAY BE A HEAVY
SHOWER OR STORM THERE THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL KEEP WATCH AS IS
FOR NOW. EXPECT STRATIFORM PRECIP TO DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
TODAY AS HIGH MOVES IN. TEMPS ARE IN THE 50S...WITH EASTERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 KTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 326 AM MDT THU JUN 11 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE STORM SYSTEM NOW CROSSING ERN
NEB...AND CONTINUING ITS NE TRACK. SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES ARE ALSO
CROSSING ERN WY INTO SRN SD. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MOIST AND COOL
ERLY FLOW ACROSS SD ALONG THE N/NW SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE COLD
FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE CWA INTO NRN/CNTRL NEB. KUDX RADAR
SHOWING WIDESPREAD SHRA ACROSS NE AND MUCH OF WRN SD.
SHRA WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...BUT RAINFALL RATES
GENERALLY BE LIGHT TO MODERATE AT LEAST THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE
FOCUS OF PRECIP WILL HAVE A S/SEWD DRIFT AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
FORCING SHIFTS INTO NEB. COULD STILL SEE STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON OVER NE WY AND THE BLKHLS AREA. WITH STORM MOTIONS STILL
FORECAST TO BE VERY SLOW...WILL KEEP THE FFA GOING. HOWEVER A
GENERAL DECREASE IN PRECIP OVERALL IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTN AS HIGH
PRES/SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN. PRECIP SHOULD END AREAWIDE THIS EVNG. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S TODAY...AND LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
A MUCH QUIETER DAY IS EXPECTED FRIDAY. SUNSHINE WILL RETURN TO MUCH
OF THE CWA...WITH SOME CLOUDS STILL LINGERING OVER PORTIONS OF NE WY
AND SW SD. AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...RETURN FLOW
WILL SET UP ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS
TO THE AREA...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 70S.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 326 AM MDT THU JUN 11 2015
UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TO THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
PERSISTS THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES ALOFT. PERIODIC
SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS US/CANADIAN BORDER DRAGGING FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR/SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE.
.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT THU JUN 11 2015
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY...BUT COVERAGE WILL
DECREASE SLOWLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS
WILL OCCUR WITH DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/UPSLOPE FLOW. AREAS IFR
CIGS/VSBYS WILL OCCUR WITH PRECIPITATION. LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
ST/FG EXPECTED OVER/NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS
THE STORM SYSTEM PULLS AWAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM MDT THU JUN 11 2015
-RA WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS AFTN...BUT SOME
SCT TSRA MAY DEVELOP ESPECIALLY ACRS NERN WY INTO THE BLKHLS.
WDSPRD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL ALSO SLOWLY DISSIPATE FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH...WITH ALL BUT FAR SRN SD BECOMING VFR BY AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. LCL IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY TSRA THAT
DEVELOP.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ024>029-041-
072-074.
WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ054>058-071.
&&
$$
UPDATE...POJORLIE
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...JOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
338 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015
CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED TROUGHS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA...THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND
FROM NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...WHILE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
WAS PRESENT OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.. THE TROUGHING JUST TO OUR WEST
IS COMPOSED OF MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES...EACH OF WHICH HAS PROVIDED
DYNAMIC FORCING AND SURGES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO DRIVE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS IOWA INTO THE FORECAST AREA. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE
EXISTS FOR THE PRECIPITATION NOTED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.5 TO 2
INCHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA PER RAP ANALYSIS...HIGHEST IN IOWA.
THE ONE THING NOT WORKING IN OUR FAVOR FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS
INSTABILITY. THE MAIN WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STUCK NEAR I-80
DUE TO COOL AIR OUTFLOW FROM THE SHOWERS TO THE NORTH. ALL OF THE
CAPE AS SEEN ON SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE RESIDES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. THIS HAS BEEN TOO FAR SOUTH TO ALLOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF
THUNDERSTORM GENERATION IN OUR FORECAST AREA...KEEPING PRECIPITATION
RATES MUCH LOWER. REGARDING THE COOL OUTFLOW...TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN STUCK MOST OF THE DAY FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. TO THE
NORTHWEST...MUCH DRIER AIR WAS NOTED FROM NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN
MN WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS 0.75-1 INCH. AS A RESULT...SKIES ARE
MOSTLY SUNNY THERE.
SOME BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY DUE TO 3
REASONS...
1. WARM FRONT REMAINING STUCK NEAR I-80 HOLDING INSTABILITY FROM
MOVING NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
2. TROUGH FROM SOUTHERN MN INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA MOVING EAST
QUICKER.
3. A LINEAR MCS EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTH OF OMAHA SHORTLY...WHICH THEN
TRACKS EAST AND INTERCEPTS MUCH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT.
RAP AND HRRR MODEL RUNS THROUGHOUT THE DAY HAVE BEEN CONTINUOUSLY
BACKING OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION OUR FORECAST AREA WOULD
SEE THROUGH TONIGHT...AS A RESULT OF THE 3 ITEMS ABOVE. THE FORECAST
HAS BEEN FOLLOWING SUIT...THUS CAUSING CANCELLATIONS TO THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH. THERE STILL IS POTENTIAL THIS EVENING FOR THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF THE LINEAR MCS TO LIFT THROUGH EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BROUGHT UP AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THUS...HAVE LEFT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. HOWEVER...IF IT LOOKS LIKE
THIS EVENING THE LINEAR MCS WILL STAY ON AN EASTWARD TRACK...THEN
THE WATCH CAN BE DROPPED.
11.12Z NAM/ECMWF/GFS HAVE ALSO FOLLOW SUIT WITH THE FASTER EXIT OF
PRECIPITATION SUCH THAT ALL THREE BASICALLY HAVE THE FORECAST AREA
DRIED OUT AT 12Z FRI...EXCEPT MAYBE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS IN
THE SOUTH A FEW HOURS LATER. HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO FOLLOW
SUIT AND SPED UP THE EXIT OF PRECIPITATION. WE MAY NEED TO EVEN
SPEED IT UP MORE.
ALONG WITH THE SPEED UP OF THE TROUGH COMES A QUICKER ENTRANCE OF
THE DRIER AIR EVIDENT ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MN. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER NORTH OF I-90 DROPS BELOW 1 INCH. THUS...WE
SHOULD SEE A CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THE DRIER AIR MEANS
BETTER MIXING...THUS ALSO BOOSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES
NORTH OF I-90.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO MUCH OF SATURDAY STILL LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH
THE AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
HOWEVER...STARTING TO SEE SOME CHANGES IN THE MODEL RUNS TO INCREASE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IN THE 11.12Z
ECMWF. AS A RESULT...CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN INCREASED...TEMPERATURES
LOWERED SLIGHTLY...AND HAVE BROUGHT IN SOME LOW PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR NORTHEAST IOWA.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY STILL LOOKS INTERESTING WITH ALL MODELS
WANTING TO BRING A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CURRENT UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WE
SEE A DECENT SURGE OF BOTH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND 1.5-2
INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. THE QUESTION IS GOING TO BE THE
EXACT TRACK OF THIS SHORTWAVE AND THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. THERE
REMAINS A GOOD AMOUNT OF SPREAD BETWEEN THE 11.12Z NAM...ECMWF...GFS
AND CANADIAN ON THE TRACK...BUT THEY ALL DEPICT SOME SHOWERS AND
STORMS AFFECTING THE AREA. THEREFORE...STILL MAINTAINED 50-70
PERCENT CHANCES BUT QPF IS NOT TOO HIGH YET. IF THE LAST MANY RUNS
OF THE ECMWF ARE RIGHT...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT 1 TO LOCALLY 2
INCHES. LUCKILY WE HAVE ALMOST 2 DAYS TO DRY OUT FROM THE CURRENT
RAIN...PLUS WE ARE NOT ENDING UP WITH AS MUCH OUT OF THE CURRENT
RAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL GO UP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MAKING IT
FEEL MORE STICKY. HARD TO DISCERN SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AT THIS
TIME...THOUGH.
THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY IN BRITISH COLUMBIA IS PROGGED BY MODELS
TO SWEEP ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE
APPEARS TO BE A TREND IN MODELS FOR THIS TROUGH TO HAVE MAYBE A
LITTLE BIT MORE INFLUENCE ON US...DRIVING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN BEHIND
IT FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. GIVEN THIS TREND DEVELOPING...HAVE CUT
BACK ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THESE DAYS AND WE MAY EVENTUALLY
BE ABLE TO GO ENTIRELY DRY IF TRENDS CONTINUE. 850MB TEMPS IN THE 10-
14C RANGE PLUS DRY AIR SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S.
THE 11.00Z/12Z ECMWF/GFS STILL POINT TO A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH MAYBE SOME HINTS TOWARDS RIDGING AS WE
APPROACH LATE THU FROM TROUGHING DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
HARD TO TIME RIGHT NOW SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THIS ZONAL
FLOW...BUT IT APPEARS THERE COULD BE ONE COMING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY
WITH A SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM RISK. ANOTHER RISK COULD COME IN BY
LATE THURSDAY. THEREFORE...THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO DEPICT 20 TO 40
PERCENT CHANCES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015
LATEST FORECAST TRENDS ARE TO TAKE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL SOUTH OF
TAF AIRFIELDS. INSTABILITY IS WEAK SO THAT ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO IA INTO SOUTHERN WI AND NORTHERN IL.
AS A RESULT...REMOVED ALL THUNDER MENTION AT BOTH KRST/KLSE AND
IMPROVED VISIBILITIES BY A MILE OR TWO...ALTHOUGH REDUCTIONS TO 1
SM STILL POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN
THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE TO WARRANT MVFR/IFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH RAIN SHOULD EXIT A BIT EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS AROUND THE MIDNIGHT HOUR.
HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR REDUCED VISIBILITY IF FOG/MIST
OVERNIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTING AT TIMES IN
THE LOWER TO MID 20 KT RANGE WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015
THE FIRST WAVE OF PRECIPITATION SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS
EXPECTED...BRINGING ANYWHERE FROM 1/3 TO A LITTLE OVER 1 INCH OF
RAINFALL...HEAVIEST IN FAR SOUTHWEST WI. THE SECOND WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION...WHICH THE PAST FEW DAYS LOOKED TO SET UP FROM
SOUTHEAST MN INTO CENTRAL WI...NOW LOOKS TO TRACK WELL TO THE SOUTH
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-80. ADDITIONALLY...THE SECOND WAVE OF PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE EAST QUICKER. THEREFORE...THE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LOWERED...NOW ONLY AN ADDITIONAL 1/2 TO
1.5 INCHES...HIGHEST FROM EASTERN IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL WI.
WITH THE LOWER TOTALS...RIVERS DO NOT LOOK NEARLY AS CONCERNING FOR
FLOODING. MAY STILL NEED TO WATCH BASINS SUCH AS THE KICKAPOO AND
TURKEY GIVEN THEY LOOK TO PICK UP THE MOST RAINFALL.
LOOKING AHEAD...ANOTHER 1 TO LOCALLY 2 INCHES COULD FALL SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LESSER RAINFALL FROM TODAY AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY TO SATURDAY FOR WATER TO FLOW
DOWNSTREAM...WE MAY BE ABLE TO ABSORB THE RAIN. STILL SOMETHING TO
WATCH...THOUGH.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WIZ053>055-061.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR WIZ042>044.
MN...NONE.
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR IAZ011-029-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...ROGERS
HYDROLOGY...AJ