Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/10/15

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PHOENIX AZ

905 PM MST SUN JUN 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDINESS FROM FORMER HURRICANE BLANCA WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
MONDAY...THOUGH NOT ENOUGH TO FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES. HUMIDITY AND
CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
LEADING TO A CHANCE OF RAIN AREA-WIDE. BRIEF HEAVY SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST BEGINNING WEDNESDAY...WITH A LINGERING CHANCE OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WARMER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE THEREAFTER.

.DISCUSSION... LATEST IR AND WV IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEEPER MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH TS BLANCA ADVANCING NORTHWARD INTO SE AZ. THIS IS
ALSO REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES OF THETA-E
POSITIONED ACROSS SOUTHERN PIMA COUNTY. HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THAT THE SHIELD OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
LIFTING NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST THAT
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EVEN POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ
TONIGHT...HOWEVER IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THE RAINFALL WILL REACH THE
GROUND THIS FAR NORTH WHERE THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER IS CONSIDERABLY
DRIER. POPS REMAIN LESS THAN 10 PERCENT...EVEN ACROSS PINAL COUNTY
THROUGH MORNING. CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SHORT-TERM TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WERE NEEDED.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

AFTERNOON TEMPS ON THE LOW DESERTS GENERALLY RUNNING IN THE LOW 90S.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CIRRUS STARTING TO MOVE OVER ARIZONA FROM
THE SOUTHEAST CORNER. KEMX RADAR PICKING UP SOME VERY WEAK ECHOES
WITHIN THE CLOUDINESS. BLENDED TPW IMAGERY SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER
INCREASING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS SONORA MEXICO WITH 1.0 INCH VALUES
GETTING INTO FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. OVER SOUTHERN SONORA...PWAT
VALUES ARE DOUBLE THAT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA MONDAY
BUT NOT ENOUGH TO GET SOME COOLING. THE CENTER OF BLANCA...NOW A
TROPICAL STORM AND WEAKENING FAST...IS ABOUT 130 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS AS OF 21Z. IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE BAJA PENINSULA. LATEST TRACK HAS IT
WEAKENING TO A DEPRESSION MONDAY NIGHT WELL SOUTH OF THE AZ/MEXICO
BORDER BUT WITH AN EASTWARD SHIFT FROM PREVIOUS TRACK...MOST
NOTICEABLY FOR THE DEPRESSION STAGE. THIS CHANGE MAY NOT HAVE MUCH
IMPACT ON OUR FORECAST. THERE IS MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE BASIC LARGE
SCALE FLOW FEATURES...ANTICYCLONE OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO/TEXAS...
TROUGHING NEAR THE WEST COAST...AND DISSIPATING BLANCA IN BETWEEN.
THERE IS HOWEVER DISAGREEMENT ON THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND IN THE
THE MORPHOLOGY OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS CONTINUE
TO BRING ABOUT WIDELY VARYING MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE QPF. THUS A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON HOW PRECIP WILL PLAY OUT OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA. WITH SUCH WARM AIR ALOFT...IT LOOKS LIKE CAPE WILL BE
MEAGER. THE MAIN ISSUE OF CONCERN IS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WHEREIN
MODEST LIFT CAN LEAD TO SHOWERS THAT ARE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS. PRECIP MAY GET STARTED WITH CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA MONDAY DRIFTING INTO OUR AREA. RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THAT
WOULD BE THE ARRIVAL OF THE REMNANT CLOUD MASS AND EMBEDDED SHOWERS
LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. IN THE PROCESS...PORTIONS
OF THE REMNANT CIRCULATION ALSO MOVE THROUGH...FIRST AT UPPER LEVELS
THEN MID LEVELS. THESE WAVES MAY OR MAY NOT AID IN PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT. ANTICIPATE A SCENARIO WITH AN UNEVEN DISTRIBUTION OF
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED BRIEF HEAVY SHOWERS IN THE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. ANTICIPATE THAT THE
INFLUENCE OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL MORE LIKELY BE FELT OVER OUR
WESTERN AREAS DUE TO CLOSER PROXIMITY...THOUGH VEF FORECAST AREA
WILL PROBABLY SEE MORE DIFFLUENCE RELATED FORCING THAN US. BY
WEDNESDAY...THE TROUGH IS ADVERTISED TO BE INLAND BUT GFS IS A BIT
WEAKER WITH IT THAN ECMWF. HOWEVER...THE GFS STARTS DRY ADVECTION
FROM THE WEST FASTER THAN ECMWF. EITHER WAY...ENOUGH LINGERING
MOISTURE FOR CONTINUED PRECIP POTENTIAL. OF NOTE...QPF GUIDANCE FROM
WPC FOR OUR FORECAST AREA IS QUITE MODEST...LIKELY DUE TO A LACK OF
CAPE AND WEAK DYNAMICAL FORCING. NOT NEAR ENOUGH TO GO ON AT THIS
POINT TO ISSUE ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCHES.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

THIS PERIOD WILL ALSO BE CHALLENGING AS WELL. A SERIES OF SMALLER
PACIFIC TROFS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN STATES MAINLY
ACROSS NEVADA...UTAH...AND NORTHERN AZ. INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW
PUSHES MOST OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE EAST INTO NEW MEXICO. FOR
EXAMPLE...700 MB DEWPOINTS WHICH PEAK IN THE 8 DEGREE C RANGE (WHICH
IS EXCESSIVE) TUESDAY EVENING...FALL TO NEAR 0 DEG C IN PHOENIX...
AND INTO THE MINUS 4 DEGREE C RANGE OVER YUMA. SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC
FLOW WITH COOLER 500 MB TEMPS POINT TO A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING
MAINLY MOUNTAIN STORMS NORTH THROUGH EAST OF PHOENIX. STABLE
ELSEWHERE.

SATURDAY...
ONE OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED PACIFIC TROFS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
STATES IS FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO DEEPEN INTO CENTRAL AZ AND
BECOME A CUTOFF LOW SATURDAY MORNING. WITH 500 MB TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE UNSTABLE RANGE OF MINUS 11 DEG C...AND WITH A WARM BOUNDARY
LAYER AND REMNANT MOISTURE...THERE IS A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ.

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...
BEFORE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE OUTER REACHES OF NOW TROPICAL STORM
BLANCA BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO ARIZONA OVERNIGHT. THIS INITIAL
AREA OF FEW-SCT CLOUDS WILL GNLY STAY 20-25KFT. WINDS TO FOLLOW
TYPICAL DIURNAL HEADINGS WITH SPEEDS GNLY 8KTS OR LESS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE SURFACE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL SYSTEM BLANCA
WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA...SIGNIFICANTLY RAISING AREA DEWPOINTS
AND HUMIDITIES. WITH HIGHER HUMIDITIES AND ENHANCED
CLOUDINESS...TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO DECREASE. AS HIGHLIGHTED IN
EARLIER DISCUSSIONS...THE MOST LIKELY WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HOWEVER DIFFICULTY
REMAINS IN NARROWING DOWN THE AREAS WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
WETTING RAINS DURING THIS PERIOD. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO
SUPPORT SOME AFTN PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN ON THE LIGHT TO MODERATE SIDE...SAVE FOR ANY
ENHANCED BREEZINESS IN THE VICINITY OF PASSING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. NO CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AJ/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO

800 PM MDT TUE JUN 9 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 752 PM MDT TUE JUN 9 2015

CONVECTION OVER METRO AREA SHOWS EVERY INDICATION OF HOLDING
TOGETHER AS IT MOVES EAST...AND HRRR SUGGESTS IT WILL CONTINUE OUT
INTO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE INTO THE PRE DAWN HOURS. AMENDED
ZONES TO HAVE SOME MENTION OF STORMS ON THE PLAINS FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT. STORMS ARE OUTFLOW DOMINANT...AND DENVER INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT GUSTED TO 41 KNOTS AT 02Z. THE STORMS ARE MOVING ALONG SO
THERE WILL BE SOME HEAVY RAIN LOCALLY...BUT MINIMAL FLOOD THREAT
DUE TO STORM MOTION.

OTHERWISE THE MOISTENING TREND AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES WAS
MENTIONED THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS STILL LOOKS GOOD.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT TUE JUN 9 2015

THE RIDGE ALOFT OVER COLORADO WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN AND
SHIFT EAST IN RESPONSE TO INCOMING UPPER LOW NOW OFF CALIFORNIA
COAST DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING INCREASING
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE NOW COVERING THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF COLORADO. INTEGRATED PW VALUES FROM GPS ALSO SHOWING
SOME SLOW AND STEADY INCREASES AS WELL. SHORT RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS/SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND HINTING THAT
SOME OF THIS WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS THIS
EVENING. NAM/HRRR SEEM OVERDONE WITH QPF FIELDS THIS EVENING AND
WILL ONLY MENTION ISOLATED COVERAGE OVER URBAN CORRIDOR WITH
MAINLY OUTFLOW GUSTY WINDS.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
APPEARS LIKE ONLY A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT AS MOST OF THE CAPE
VALUES ARE UNDER 1000J/KG WITH MAIN THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH MORE CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT TUE JUN 9 2015

STORMS WILL PUSH EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH STRONG STORMS STILL
POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER. AS ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WRAPS BACK INTO NE COLORADO AROUND THE SURFACE LOW IN NW
KANSAS...AND MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES PUMPING UP FROM
THE SOUTHWEST...AN APPROACHING UPPER JET WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF
STORMS GOING ALL NIGHT OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER AS WELL AS
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE STATE THURSDAY
DURING THE LATE MORNING TO LATE AFTERNOON TO CREATE UPSLOPE FLOW
AND TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER. GOOD MOISTURE AT ALL
LEVELS WILL PRODUCE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 1.0-1.5 INCHES OVER
THE PLAINS. CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 1000-1500
J/KG BY THE AFTERNOON FOR A CHANCE OF STRONGER STORMS OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...WITH STORM MOTIONS BECOMING SLOWER AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE STATE THE NIGHT. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
FOCUS THE HEAVIER RAIN IN AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS AS WELL AS THE
PALMER DIVIDE. SOME MODELS SHOWING PRECIP VALUES OF 1 - 1.5 INCHES
OF RAIN THURSDAY EVENING OVER 6 HOURS...THEN ANOTHER 1 - 1.5
INCHES FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH SATURATED SOILS
FROM A WET MAY AND A STORMY JUNE SO FAR...RAIN LIKE THIS COULD
CAUSE FLOODING PROBLEMS.

ON FRIDAY...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE STAYS OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS. SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE STABLE...SO EXPECT
ADDITIONAL RAIN FRIDAY WITH LESS STORM STRENGTH AND COVERAGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE 60S UNDER THE STABLE POST
FRONTAL AIRMASS.

THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD PUSH EAST AFTER FRIDAY. WEAK UPPER
TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR A
DRIER PERIOD...HOWEVER STILL EXPECT AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY
MONDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 752 PM MDT TUE JUN 9 2015

EXPECT THREAT OF STORMS WILL END SOON AT DIA...AND THERE IS A
SMALL THREAT OF FURTHER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AS STORMS ARE
INCREASING OVER PARK AND SOUTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES. EXPECT THESE
TO SPREAD EAST OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE...WITH MAIN RISK TO KAPA.
OUTSIDE OF STORMS AREA AIRPORTS WILL BE VFR AND WINDS WILL BECOME
MAINLY DOWNSLOPE LATER THIS EVENING.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT TUE JUN 9 2015

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STORMS WILL BE WEAK AND AT
MOST PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER NEAR
KERSEY...WELDONA AND BALZAC...AND ALONG WITH THE CACHE LA POUDRE
AT GREELEY. THE CACHE LA POUDRE AT THE CANYON MOUTH REMAINS UNDER
AN ADVISORY WHILE THE CREEK CONTINUES TO RUN HIGH. ALL OTHER
CREEKS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH WITH A STEADY
INCREASE DUE TO RECENT SNOWMELT AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL PUSH OVER THE STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE UPSLOPE FLOW
THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE PLAINS AND INTO THE FOOTHILLS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER THE UPSLOPE ENHANCED FOOTHILLS AND
PALMER DIVIDE. SATURATED SOILS WILL INHIBIT MUCH SOAKING AND COULD
CAUSE FLOODING ISSUES QUITE QUICKLY. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE RIVERS
AND STREAM LEVELS TO RISE AND THE MAIN RIVERS DOWNSTREAM...NAMELY
THE SOUTH PLATTE...MAY HAVE ANOTHER SURGE OF WATER TO PUSH DOWN
OVER THE WEEKEND.

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...RTG
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...RTG
HYDROLOGY...ENTREKIN/KRIEDERMAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

1022 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TOMORROW....WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE ALONG THE SLOWING COLD FRONT IN THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES TOMORROW BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CREST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT
BRINGS MORE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS
THE REGION THURSDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
...SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...

AS OF 1022 AM EDT...A LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT IS
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WRN NEW ENGLAND THIS HOUR. SCT SHOWERS AND
DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO EXTREME WRN NY...AND NEAR
SE ONTARIO AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE IN THE WARM SECTOR. A
COLD FRONT TRAILS UPSTREAM OVER THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION AND
MIDWEST.

THERE IS A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TODAY IF THE FCST AREA HAS SOME
SUNSHINE IN THE WARM SECTOR. THERE ARE SOME BREAK UPSTREAM OVER
CNTRL PA...AND CNTRL NY. HOWEVER...CLOUDS ARE FILLING BACK IN OVER
WRN NY.

THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE BEST INSTABILITY OVER
LOCATIONS WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SBCAPES OF 500-1000
J/KG FOR THIS PM. THE AIR MASS IS MORE STABLE FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION NORTH AND EAST. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR ON THE NAM AND GFS
INCREASES TO 30-40+ KTS IN THE PM AND EARLY EVENING...AHEAD OF THE
SHORT-WAVE. SOME DEEP...ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IS
APPRECIABLE AMOUNTS ARE REALIZES. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK
FAIRLY WEAK AT 5-6.2C/KM BASED ON THE THE 12Z KBUF/KALY SOUNDINGS.
PWATS ARE ON THE RISE TO AROUND 1-1.5 INCHES...SO HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE A THREAT WITH ANY CONVECTION. THE FLOW LOOKS PROGRESSIVE
SO WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH BACKBUILDING OR STALLED STORMS...BUT
THEY COULD LOCALLY PUT DOWN THE BETTER PART OF AN INCH IN A VERY
SHORT TIME IN LOCALIZED AREAS. THIS WOULD BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN
SPOTTY URBAN FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR
DRAINAGE.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ HAS PLACED THE W-CNTRL MOHAWK
VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...NRN-ERN CATSKILLS INCLUDING GREENE AND
ULSTER COUNTIES IN A SLIGHT RISK. THE BEST OVERLAY OF SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY IS IN THESE AREAS FOR THE MID PM INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE REST OF OUR FCST AREA IS IN MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE LATEST HRRR COLUMNAR MAX REF PRODUCT HAS CONVECTION FIRING UP
OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE FCST AREA BTWN 18Z-20Z...AND
OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE FCST AREA THROUGH 00Z/TUE. SOME LINEAR
CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS DEVELOP WITH SOME BOWING ELEMENTS. WE AGREE
WITH SPC THAT THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS. THE LATEST
HIRES WRF SHOWS A LATER DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME LINES OR CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION
FORMING OVER THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE FCST AREA AROUND 21Z...AND
IMPACTING THE AREA THROUGH 03Z. WE TRIED TO COMPROMISE THE TWO
SOLUTIONS IN THE GRIDS WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY 18Z-21Z...AND THEN EAST/SOUTHEAST 21Z-02Z.

DUE TO THE ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IN THE 0-1 KM LAYER OF CLOSE
TO 30 KTS ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION IN THE
WARM SECTOR...THERE IS A ISOLD THREAT OF A TORNADO. ACCORDING TO
SPC...THERE IS A 2 PERCENT OF TORNADO DEVELOPING WITHIN 25 MILES
OF ANY GIVEN SPOT IN OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA...SO A VERY LOW
THREAT (BUT NOT ZERO).

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO U70S IN THE VALLEYS WITH A
FEW LOWER 80S OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. EXPECT U60S TO
L70S OVER THE MTNS...AND NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY.

A COLD FRONT...JUST ENTERING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY...WILL APPROACH TONIGHT AND LIKELY TRIGGER YET ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE THEY
STILL COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...THE BIGGER THREAT TONIGHT WOULD BE
HEAVY RAINFALL AS WE LOOSE THE HEATING OF THE DAY. IN FACT...AS OF
NOW...THIS IS WHEN WE HAVE HEAVY QPF COMING THROUGH. MANY AREAS
COULD SEE AN INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL TONIGHT.

IT WILL BE MUGGY TONIGHT WITH LOWS HOLDING IN THE 60S.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A FAST MOVING 500HPA FLOW AS FORECAST AREA AND N
TIER OF USA IS THE BATTLE GROUND BETWEEN HOT HUMID AIR JUST TO
OUR SOUTH AND MILDER AIR ACROSS THE N TIER OF USA AND S CANADA.

TUES MORNING COLD FRONT SLOWLY EXITS REGION AS SERIES OF SHORT WAVES CARVE OUT
A 500 HPA TROF AND COLD POOL OVER THE REGION. THE GEM/GFS/NAM ALL SUPPORT
A WAVE FORMING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH WEAK-MODEST
CYCLOGENSIS...WHICH WITH RICH MOISTER OVER FORECAST AREA (PWATS REMAIN
ELEVATED MUCH OF TUES...1.7 INCHES IN THE MORNING...FALLING SLOWLY TO
1.3 IN IN THE EVENING...FINALLY DROPPING OFF TUE NT) AND RICHER
YET THETA-E AIRMASS JUST TO OUR SOUTH...WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
PERIOD OF RN WITH SCT TSTMS IN S PORTION OF FORECAST AREA NR COLD FRONT. AFTER
SFC WV EXITS TUES AFTN/EVNG CAPES REACH 500-1000 J/KG ON THE
NAM/GFS. -SHRA WILL LINGER INTO TUES NT AS 500 HPA TROF AND
SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSS REGION. QPF AMOUNTS VARY AMONG THE MODELS GIVEN
THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE EVENT...BUT AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH
TO AN INCH SEEMS A GOOD BET IN MOST AREAS TUESDAY AND TUE EVENING.

WED FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS WK SFC HIGH CRESTS OVR REGION WITH
MAINLY FAIR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM AND ITS ACCOMP
SHORT WV WILL REACH NYS IN THE AFTN WITH INCRG CLOUDS...TD AND AT
THIS TIME SCT SHRA/TSTMS MAINLY W OF FORECAST AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL CROSS
REGION WED NT.

THUR FORECAST AREA IS IN FAST 500 HPA FLOW AND WK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS FORECAST AREA WITH FAIR CONDITIONS. TEMPS IN FORECAST AREA WILL BE NR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMALS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER THE MAJOR BAROCLINIC ZONE IS
NOT FAIR AWAY..E-W ACROSS PA IN THE I80 CORRIDOR...SOUTH OF WHICH
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW 90S AND TD IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FAST PARADE OF SYSTEMS THAT DOMINATED THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM AS N TIER OF USA REMAINS THE
BATTLE GROUND BETWEEN MILDER AIR...AND HOT HUMID AIR.

FRIDAY A WARM FRONT AND THE VERY WARM AIRMASS SURGE N THROUGH
FORECAST AREA...AS SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM E GREAT LAKES. FRI NT...500 HPA SHORT WV
DIVES SE IN FLOW...AND DRIVES SFC COLD FRONT THRU FORECAST AREA FRI NT AND SAT
MORNING WITH SCT -SHRA/TSTMS.

THE ECMWF DOESN`T BRING THIS FRONT AS FAR NORTH...AND SUGGESTS AN MCS
DEVELOPMENT FRI NT INTO SAT FM I90 NORTH.

GFS/ECMWF BOTH HAVE RIDGING AT ALL LEVELS TAKING HOLD FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND...AS 500 HPA RIDGE BUILDS OVER REGION...SFC HIGH
BUILDS FM UPR GREAT LAKES SAT AFTN TO OVER FORECAST AREA SUN. WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS
OVER REGION...1000-500 DM THICKNESS REMAINING ARND 565-570DM...TEMPS
FOR THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN CONSIDERABLY ABV NORMALS.

WPC CURRENT GUIDANCE IS ALONG THE LINES OF ECMWF PLACEMENT FOR FRONTAL
SYSTEM SAT...AND AND GIVEN WERE TALKING ABOUT DAY 6...POPS IN GFS
ARE STILL IN THE HI CHC RANGE...WILL POPULATE THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD W/WPC...WITH
MENTION OF TSTMS SAT AS PRECIP MECHANISM.

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF
THUNDER CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SOUTH OF A WARM
FRONT.

THE SHOWERS WILL TEND TO LOWER CIGS POSSIBLY TO MVFR AND BRIEFLY
REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR. WE INCLUDED TEMPOS FOR MVFR AT ALL
THE TAF SITES FOR MVFR CONDITIONS. THIS FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS
WILL LAST UNTIL ABOUT 14Z-15Z AT ALL TAFS BEFORE LIFTING OUT. THE
THREAT OF THUNDER WITH THIS LINE WAS DEEMED TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY
THUNDER AT THIS TIME.

AFTER THIS BATCH MOVES OUT...THERE MIGHT BE A BRIEF BREAK AND
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR WITH PERHAPS A FEW BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE.

THE WIND WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE SOUTH 10-15 KTS...GUSTING AT TIMES
TO 20-25KTS.

SINCE WE HAVE BEEN PLACED IN MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND THE MESO-SCALE MODELS INDICATE A LINE OF SHOWERS/POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WE INCLUDED A PROB30 FOR THUNDER MIDDAY
THROUGH AFTERNOON (A LITTLE LATER AT KPOU)...MAINLY IN THE
21Z-01/TUE TIME FRAME. WE INCLUDED VRBG25KT AS THE STORMS MIGHT
CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS. FOR NOW...WE HELD CONDITIONS NO WORSE THAN
HIGH LEVEL MVFR.

TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT NEARS...A WAVE MIGHT FORM ALONG IT AND
PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF RAIN. FOR
NOW...WE WENT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS AROUND THE EVENING
PEAK...DROPPING TO LOW MVFR /EXTRA FUEL REQUIRED/ AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...SCT TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

.FIRE WEATHER...
A STORM SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SOME OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL.

MOST...IF NOT ALL AREAS...SHOULD RECEIVE WELL OVER A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL THROUGH TUESDAY.

IT WILL TURN DECISIVELY MORE HUMID TODAY...AS DEWPOINTS RISE FROM
THE 40S...TO AROUND BY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN
SOMEWHAT ELEVATED NOT ONLY TODAY...BUT THROUGH TUESDAY...GENERALLY
50 PERCENT OR HIGHER.

A SOUTH WIND WILL CONTINUE 10 TO 15 MPH TROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS TODAY. A SOUTH WIND WILL TURN TO THE WEST ON TUESDAY AS
A COLD SLOWLY SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA.

DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN BY WEDNESDAY.

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THROUGH TUESDAY...WHICH COULD BRING ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL.
AT THIS POINT...ONLY MINOR RISES ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS RAINFALL.
HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADWAYS AND STANDING WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...HWJIV/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAUNTON MA

1010 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OCEAN GUIDES SOUTH WINDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TODAY. A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES EAST TODAY
AND CROSSES NEW ENGLAND LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT CROSSES
NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY AND THEN STALLS. A DISTURBANCE MOVING
ALONG THE FRONT BRINGS UNSETTLED WEATHER ON SATURDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...

COMPARING THE 12Z ALBANY VERSUS CHATHAM SOUNDINGS GIVES A SENSE OF
THE AIRMASS THE PRESENT LINE OF WET-WEATHER ACROSS W NEW ENGLAND
IS UP AGAINST. ERODING INTO DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH LINGERING
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...WENT TO A HIGH-RES NEAR-TERM BLEND WITH
GREATER WEIGHTING WITH THE HRRR TO TREND OUT THE POP FORECAST. NOT
ANTICIPATING THESE SHOWERS TO GO SO FAR E BUT RATHER DISSIPATE
PRIOR TO THAT. LIKELY POPS INITIALLY DIMINISHING TO SLIGHT CHANCE.
DEPARTING FROM THE BETTER ENVIRONMENT AND FORCING VIA LOW-LEVEL-
JET...NOTHING MUCH BUT WETTING ROADWAYS EXPECTED.

OTHERWISE FOCUS IS ON THE AFTERNOON. AN EVALUATION OF THE NEAR-
TERM GUIDANCE HAS CONVECTION BREAKING OUT WELL TO THE W. NOTING
THE HIGH SHEAR / LOW CAPE EVENT WITH SHEAR ORIENTED W/SW IT IS NO
SURPRISE TO SEE MODEL RADAR REFLECTIVITY SUGGESTING LEWPS AND BOW
ECHO PATTERNS. ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED W WITHIN THE BETTER MOIST
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT BENEATH DECENT FORCING IS LIKELY TO RACE E
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS. COULD BE ON OUR DOORSTEP
BY LATE-AFTERNOON WHICH MOST MODELS SUGGEST. THEREAFTER...
DISCONNECTED FROM THE BETTER FORCING AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND
ENCOUNTERING THE LINGERING EFFECTS OF OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE...
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO GO DOWNHILL AS IT PRESSES E. MORE STABLE AND
AWAY FROM THE THETA-E RIDGING - INSTABILITY AXIS OVER PA / W NY /
N VT. MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY RAIN FOR OUR AREA AS
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL APART AS THEY PUSH E.

CONVECTION IS TRICKY TO FORECAST...SO EXPECT CHANGES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY PENDING UPSTREAM EVENTS.

OTHERWISE...BREAKING OUT LATER TODAY ALLOWING FOR THE MIX-DOWN OF
FASTER WINDS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. EXPECTING DECENT S-FLOW WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ACROSS S/SE-PORTIONS OF S NEW ENGLAND. HIGHS
WARMING INTO THE 70S.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT...
CONVECTION FIRING IN CENTRAL NY AND WESTERN PA WILL SHIFT EAST
DURING THE NIGHT WITH FAVORABLE DYNAMICS ALOFT ALSO SHIFTING EAST.
WE WILL FEATURE AN INCREASING TREND FOR POPS OVERNIGHT.

WITH DEW POINTS NEAR 60 THE MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE NO LOWER THAN
THAT...GENERALLY LOW TO MID 60S.

TUESDAY...
COLD FRONT MOVES WEST-EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT
AND THE ARRIVAL OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET
SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DYNAMIC SUPPORT. CAPE AROUND 1000
J/KG...LI VALUES AROUND ZERO...TOTALS IN THE UPPER 40S ALL SHOW
INSTABILITY. DEEP MOISTURE WITH CONTINUED HIGH PRECIP WATER
VALUES. THE LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST WITH A 50-KNOT CORE OVER THE
GULF OF MAINE. BUT 30-40 KNOTS LINGERS OVER AT LEAST THE COASTAL
PLAIN. SPC HIGHLIGHTS A MARGINAL RISK OF SVR ACROSS SRN NEW
ENGLAND DURING THIS TIME.

TUESDAY WILL BE OUR MOST CONFIDENT PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND SO WE WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THU
* TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE WEEK
* UNSETTLED WX POSSIBLE SAT

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
WITH THE 08.00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE...CONFIDENCE IN THE
CONTINUED OPERATIONAL MODEL BLEND FOR THE MID TERM REMAINS HIGH.
AS NOTED EARLIER...THE ISSUES REALLY BEGIN TO APPEAR UNDER FAIRLY
ZONAL FLOW TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS FLOW PATTERN IS
FORMING PRIMARILY AS A RESULT OF THE BERMUDA HIGH REGAINING
STRENGTH. A SERIES OF WEAK WAVE/RIDGE COUPLETS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THIS FLOW...SO EXACT TIMING WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
QUESTION UNTIL THE WAVES ARE BETTER SAMPLED. FOR THE TIME
BEING...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SOMEWHAT MORE CONSISTENT ECENS MEAN
WHICH SHOULD INCORPORATE MOST TEMPORAL/SPATIAL DIFFERENCES.

DETAILS...

TUE NIGHT...
UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE WILL BE ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION. THE
COMBINATION OF CYCLONIC FLOW...REMNANT MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR A CONTINUATION OF -SHRA BEHIND THE
EXITING COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE WAVE. WILL MAINTAIN POPS
THROUGH 06Z...BUT GRADUALLY REDUCE THEM THROUGH THE AM HOURS.

WED...
HIGH PRES REGAINS CONTROL AS WEAK RIDGE MOVES E FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. H85 TEMPS BETWEEN +10C AND +12C SUGGESTS TEMPS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. WHICH WILL BE ASSISTED BY SOME DOWNSLOPING.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE THE
REGION WITH A COLD FRONT IN TOW. HOWEVER...WITH THE MID LVL RIDGE
TO THE SE REGAINING STRENGTH...ITS LIKELY TO STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE
MUCH IF ANY PRECIP ESPECIALLY WITH PWATS RELATIVELY CLOSE TO
NORMAL WITH FROPA AND LITTLE INSTABILITY THANKS TO A ROBUST
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. STILL WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST SOME LOW END
POPS FOR THE DAYTIME THU ESPECIALLY...WITH THE FROPA ITSELF.

FRI AND FRI NIGHT...
INITIALLY THIS WEAKENED FRONT WILL PUSH TO THE S OF THE REGION AS
ANOTHER WEAK FLATTENED RIDGE MOVES THROUGH FRI. THE MODEL BLEND
USE SUGGESTS ANOTHER RELATIVELY DRY DAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES
THANKS TO INFLUENCE OF THE SE RIDGE. WILL LIKELY BE SOME
CLOUDINESS TO OVERCOME...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HAVE
CONDITIONS REMAIN WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...
CONFIDENCE WAINS SOMEWHAT HERE...BUT INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH MODELS
INDICATE THE ARRIVAL OF AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD WAVE. INITIALLY THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS N...THEN A ROBUST LOW PRES CENTER MAY FORM TO THE
W...PASSING ALONG THE WARM FRONT SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF SRN
NEW ENGLAND ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT CONSENSUS IS N. THIS FEATURE IS
QUITE DYNAMIC...WITH GOOD F-GEN/40+ KT LLJ/AND A VERY DESTABILIZED
WARM SECTOR. PWATS ALSO ONCE AGAIN APPROACH 2.0 INCHES /2 STD
DEVIATIONS/. THIS IS ALL INTERESTING GIVEN THE ZONAL FLOW THE WAVE
WILL BE MOVING INTO. FOR NOW IT BARES WATCHING AS THIS COULD PROVE
TO A VERY WET/SEVERE PATTERN DEPENDING ON EXACT LOW PRES
FORMATION/TRACK. CHANCE POPS WILL HAVE TO DO FOR NOW GIVEN THE
MITIGATING FACTORS MENTIONED.

SUN INTO MON...
THE TIMING WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW THE POTENTIALLY STRONG /BY
JUNE STANDARDS/ LOW PRES ULTIMATELY PLAYS OUT...BUT SHOULD THE
WAVE BE AS DEEP AS PROGGED...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES IS LIKELY TO
DOMINATE INTO THE EARLY WORK WEEK. HOW LONG AND WARM WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE AMPLITUDE OF THE PATTERN. BUT WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A 582+HPA RIDGE...COULD BE LOOKING AT A RELATIVELY
WARM PERIOD.

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

14Z UPDATE...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
LOW-END VFR CIGS. SCT -SHRA TOWARDS MIDDAY DISSIPATING E. A MIX OF
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON FOR W-TERMINALS...ALBEIT LEANING
MAINLY RA/+RA. S-WINDS GUSTING 20-30 KTS. POSSIBLE LLWS ISSUES
WITH 30-40 KT SW-WINDS 2 KFT AGL.

TONIGHT...CIGS AND VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR. SCT SHRA POSSIBLE TSRA. BEST
CHANCE IN THE CT VALLEY AND VICINITY. +RA POSSIBLE. POTENTIAL FOR
LLWS ESPECIALLY BOS-PVD AND SOUTHEAST.

TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHRA/TSRA WITH PATCHES OF
IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN +SHRA AND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE TODAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY DUE TO TIMING ISSUES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE DUE TO TIMING ISSUES WITH
SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
LEFTOVER SHOWERS/T-STORMS WILL COME TO AN END OVERNIGHT TUE
NIGHT...WITH A TREND TOWARD VFR AT MOST SITES...EXCEPT FOR SOME
EARLY MORNING GROUND FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS. WINDS WILL
BE SHIFTING TO THE W-SW.

THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON THU. ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSHOWER POSSIBLE...BUT OTHERWISE VFR DOMINATES. WINDS MAINLY
S...ALTHOUGH GRADIENT MAY BE WEAK ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES.

FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRES. LIGHT WINDS SUGGEST SEA BREEZES
POSSIBLE.

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

10 AM UPDATE...

TODAY...S-WINDS INCREASING. GUSTS EXCEEDING 20 KTS TO NEARLY 30
KTS ALREADY BEING OBSERVED. POSSIBLE ISOLATED GALE-FORCE GUSTS
WILL IMPACT THE E/SE-INNER WATERS. SEAS BUILD 5-6 FEET WITH WIND
STRESS INTO AFTERNOON. SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT.

TONIGHT...SOUTH WINDS WILL DIMINISH A LITTLE BUT REMAIN GUSTING
20-25 KNOTS. SEAS OF 5-6 FEET WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON THE
EXPOSED WATERS. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH REDUCED VSBYS.

TUESDAY...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS TUESDAY EVENING. LEADING THAT WILL
BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS. SEAS WILL
CONTINUE AT 5-6 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY END ON THE
NEARSHORE WATERS WHILE CONTINUING ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE W-SW DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE OFFSHORE SWELL TO BEGIN TO DISSIPATE.
THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO BE
DROPPED THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

THU AND FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE S ON THU AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS/T-STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THU AND THU NIGHT WITH
LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS AND WAVES. OTHERWISE SEAS REMAIN BELOW 5 FT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EVEN AS WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE W ON FRI.
THEY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250-
254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ251.

SYNOPSIS...WTB/DOODY
NEAR TERM...WTB/DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...WTB/DOODY/SIPPRELL
MARINE...WTB/DOODY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

827 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO A APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM...WITH A SERIES OF PRE-FRONTAL LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS
IMPACTING THE AREA...ONE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND
ANOTHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING FOR WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...AND SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WEAK WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG IT.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ADJUSTED POPS HIGHER FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST FOLLOWING LATEST
RADAR TRENDS WITH SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
AND NORTHEAST NJ. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS RAIN WILL CLIP
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NYC METRO AS IT MOVES INTO INTERIOR
SOUTHERN CT IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MOST LOCATIONS THAT SEE
THESE SHOWERS WILL SEE LIGHT AMOUNTS OF MEASURABLE RAIN.

OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL START...AS STRATOCU FIELD
ALREADY OVER MOST OF THE AREA SPREADS INTO ERN CT/LONG ISLAND
TOWARD DAYBREAK. ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF SYNOPTICALLY ENHANCED
STRONG SEA BREEZE EVENTS WILL UNFOLD AS THE HIGH GIVES
WAY...INCREASING THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND AN
APPROACHING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OFF TO THE WEST. DAYTIME HEATING
WILL ALSO HELP MIX DOWN A 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING ALONG
THE NJ COAST. HRRR HAS BEEN VERY AGGRESSIVE...WITH FCST GUSTS OF
35-45 KT IN COASTAL SECTIONS. THIS MAY BE OVERDONE BUT NOT BY
MUCH...AND THINK MOST PEAK GUSTS WILL BE IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE
ACROSS LONG ISLAND...WITH AN ISOLD GUST UP TO 40 KT AS WITH OTHER
RECENT EVENTS...AND 25-30 KT ELSEWHERE FROM NYC EAST.

THE INFLUX OF MARINE AIR OVER MOST AREAS FROM NYC EAST WILL
SUPPRESS CONVECTION THERE TODAY...BUT THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO BE THE
CASE OVER AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON. COULD SEE AN ISOLD SHOWER OR
TSTM DEVELOP THERE WITH PEAK DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND APPROACH OF
A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE BEGINNING MID-AFTERNOON. MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON...ENTERING ORANGE COUNTY AND WRN PASSAIC COUNTIES
AFTER 21Z...WHERE SBCAPE 500-1000 J/KG WILL HELP FUEL TSTMS MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST. 0-1 KM SHEAR OF 25-30 KT...WITH WINDS VEERING
FROM S TO SW WITH HEIGHT...WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
MULTICELLS WITH EMBEDDED BOWS OR ROTATING STORMS. THE STRONGEST
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL...EVEN A
BRIEF TORNADO. CONCUR WITH SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK OF A SLIGHT RISK OF
SVR TSTMS INTO ORANGE AND WRN PASSAIC COUNTIES. LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION.

HIGH TEMPS OVER LONG ISLAND AND CT WILL BE HELD DOWN TO
70-75...WHILE MOST AREAS UNAFFECTED BY MARINE LAYER WILL REACH
THE LOWER 80S.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT THE OCEAN
BEACHES TODAY.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SVR THREAT WILL CONTINUE WELL NORTH/WEST INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...THEN STORMS OVER ORANGE/WRN PASSAIC SHOULD PROGRESS A
LITTLE FARTHER EAST TOWARD NYC METRO AND THE REST OF THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY TOWARD 23Z-00Z...WITH AN ATTENDANT MARGINAL SVR
WIND/HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER DARK.
THINK WEAKENING ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL HAVE A BETTER SHOT AT
PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO THE LATE EVENING THAN WITH OTHER RECENT
EVENTS...SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER SW FLOW OVER 40 KT AND A REMNANT
EML BETWEEN 700-900 MB...SO HAVE CHANCE POP FOR LONG ISLAND AND
CT FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S.

WITH HIGH DEW POINT AIR TRAVERSING THE COOLER NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS...LOW STRATUS SHOULD BECOME AN ISSUE ALONG THE COAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.

A POTENTIAL SECOND ROUND OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP
EARLY TUE AFTERNOON AFT AHEAD OF ANOTHER PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.
IT IS QUESTIONABLE AS TO WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND LATE
DAY WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT...SINCE WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL HAVE MOVED TO THE EAST BY THAT TIME. HI-RES ARW FCSTS THAT
POSSIBILITY...SO HAVE CHANCE POP FOR MOST AREAS RUNNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

BULK SHEAR IS STRONGER ON TUE VIA MID LEVEL SW FLOW OF 50
KT...WITH MLCAPE UP T0 1000 J/KG NW OF NYC AND UP TO 500 J/KG
ELSEWHERE EXCEPT FOR ERN LONG ISLAND/SE CT...SO THERE COULD BE
ISOLD SVR. TEMPS ON TUE LOOK TO BE A BIT WARMER...LOWER AND MID
80S FROM NYC NORTH/WEST AND MID/UPPER 70S MOST ELSEWHERE AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW VEERS SW...BUT STILL ONLY LOWER 70S FOR ERN LONG ISLAND
AND SE CT.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE H5 PATTERN ACROSS NOAM INTO
FRI...BUT THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE FOR THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW/COLD
FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TUE NIGHT. SHOWERS AND ANY ISO
TSTMS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO MAINLY E OF NYC AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE E
OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS IN FOR WED WITH
NW FLOW BECOMING SW AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES.

WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT...NEARLY ZONAL H5 FLOW ACROSS SRN NEW
ENGLAND AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TRAVERSES ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WED
NIGHT. SFC LOW PRES WILL TRACK THROUGH SERN CANADA WITH ITS
ATTENDING COLD FRONT BECOMING PARALLEL TO THE FLOW ALOFT THU NIGHT
AND SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. ISO TO SCT SHRA/TSTMS MAINLY N/W
OF NYC THU AFTN/EVE WITH LIMITED DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE. A SW FLOW
CONTINUES UNTIL THE FROPA WHICH WILL RESULT IN INCREASED HEAT AND
HUMIDITY. THU CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES IN THE NY/NJ METRO.

FRI THROUGH SUN...THERE`S UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST DURING THIS
TIME FRAME DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW. THE GFS IS
FLATTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE EC...ALTHOUGH THE 00Z/08 RUN
HAS TRENDED SOMEWHAT LESS AMPLIFIED AND DOESN`T CUTOFF THE FLOW AT
H5 UNTIL THE TROUGH REACHES THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SAT NIGHT. DID
NOT MAKE HUGE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME DUE TO THE
LARGE DIFFERENCES...BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT MOVES THROUGH THU NIGHT REMAINS IN THE VICINITY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WAVES OF LOW PRES MOVE ALONG IT. THIS WOULD
LEAD TO A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND PERHAPS COOLER TEMPS THAN
FORECAST.

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM TODAY AND
TONIGHT..

VFR LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE IN ANY
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY...GENERALLY WEST OF THE NYC
TERMINALS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY WEST OF NYC.

STRATUS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BRING MVFR-IFR CIGS...ESPECIALLY AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.

WINDS WILL IMPACT THE AREA AIRPORTS AS THEY INCREASE DURING THE
MORNING AND REMAIN STRONG IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SPEEDS TO
INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT BY LATE MORNING. BY
LATE DAY...SPEEDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KT...WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT
AT TIMES FOR COASTAL AIRPORTS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 30 KT
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. WINDS AT 2000 FT
COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR LATER IN THE DAY.
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: PEAK WIND GUSTS COULD EXCEED TAF FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: PEAK WIND GUSTS COULD EXCEED TAF FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: PEAK WIND GUSTS COULD EXCEED TAF FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: PEAK WIND GUSTS COULD EXCEED TAF FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: PEAK WIND GUSTS COULD EXCEED TAF FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.TUE...CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN SHOWERS/TSTMS. W WINDS
G20KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.WED...VFR.
.THU...CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY AT KSWF...
OTHERWISE VFR. SW GUSTS 20-25KT.
.FRI...VFR.

.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES FOR ALL WATERS INTO THIS EVENING DUE TO
STRENGTHENING S FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM...AND
HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO TUE ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS. COULD SEE A
FEW GUSTS UP TO 35 KT ON THE OCEAN JUST E OF SANDY HOOK...AND ON
THE LONG ISLAND SOUTH SHORE BAYS. OCEAN SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 5-7
FT PER 00Z WAVEWATCH.

WINDS ON THE OCEAN MAY FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS TUE EVE...ALTHOUGH SEAS
WILL TAKE LONGER TO SUBSIDE...POSSIBLY NOT UNTIL WED MORNING E OF
MORICHES INLET...DUE TO A MODERATE SW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

.HYDROLOGY...
THROUGH TUESDAY...AN AVERAGE OF 3/4 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE
WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC...WITH ABOUT 1/2 INCH POSSIBLE MOST
ELSEWHERE EXCEPT ERN CT/LONG ISLAND...WHERE ONLY UP TO 1/4 INCH
EXPECTED. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY RESULTING IN URBAN
AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/24
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/DS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...GOODMAN/24
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

746 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED THE FORECAST THIS MORNING TO INCREASE POPS TO CATEGORICAL
WITH SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR
SRN CT THIS MORNING. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE LIGHT AMOUNTS OF
MEASURABLE RAIN.

HIGH TEMPS OVER LONG ISLAND AND CT WILL BE HELD DOWN TO
70-75...WHILE MOST AREAS UNAFFECTED BY MARINE LAYER WILL REACH
THE LOWER 80S.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT THE OCEAN
BEACHES TODAY.

WITH HIGH DEW POINT AIR TRAVERSING THE COOLER NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS...LOW STRATUS SHOULD BECOME AN ISSUE ALONG THE COAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM TODAY AND
TONIGHT..

STRATUS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BRING MVFR-IFR CIGS...ESPECIALLY AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.

NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: PEAK WIND GUSTS COULD EXCEED TAF FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: PEAK WIND GUSTS COULD EXCEED TAF FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: PEAK WIND GUSTS COULD EXCEED TAF FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: PEAK WIND GUSTS COULD EXCEED TAF FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: PEAK WIND GUSTS COULD EXCEED TAF FORECAST.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

449 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL START...AS STRATOCU FIELD ALREADY OVER
MOST OF THE AREA SPREADS INTO ERN CT/LONG ISLAND TOWARD DAYBREAK.
ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF SYNOPTICALLY ENHANCED STRONG SEA BREEZE
EVENTS WILL UNFOLD AS THE HIGH GIVES WAY...INCREASING THE SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND AN APPROACHING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
OFF TO THE WEST. DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALSO HELP MIX DOWN A 40-50
KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING ALONG THE NJ COAST. HRRR HAS BEEN VERY
AGGRESSIVE...WITH FCST GUSTS OF 35-45 KT IN COASTAL SECTIONS.
THIS MAY BE OVERDONE BUT NOT BY MUCH...AND THINK MOST PEAK GUSTS
WILL BE IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE ACROSS LONG ISLAND...WITH AN ISOLD
GUST UP TO 40 KT AS WITH OTHER RECENT EVENTS...AND 25-30
KT ELSEWHERE FROM NYC EAST.

HIGH TEMPS OVER LONG ISLAND AND CT WILL BE HELD DOWN TO
70-75...WHILE MOST AREAS UNAFFECTED BY MARINE LAYER WILL REACH
THE LOWER 80S.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT THE OCEAN
BEACHES TODAY.

WITH HIGH DEW POINT AIR TRAVERSING THE COOLER NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS...LOW STRATUS SHOULD BECOME AN ISSUE ALONG THE COAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM TODAY AND
TONIGHT..

VFR LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE IN ANY
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY...GENERALLY WEST OF NYC
TERMINALS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY AFTER
00Z TUESDAY WEST OF NYC.

STRATUS MONDAY NIGHT COULD BRING SUB-VFR CIGS...ESPECIALLY AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.

SOUTH WINDS AROUND OR JUST UNDER 10 KT OVERNIGHT INCREASE MONDAY.
WINDS WILL IMPACT THE AREA AIRPORTS AS THEY INCREASE DURING THE
MORNING AND REMAIN STRONG IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SPEEDS TO
INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT BY LATE MORNING. BY
LATE DAY...SPEEDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KT...WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT
AT TIMES FOR COASTAL AIRPORTS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 30 KT
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: PEAK WIND GUSTS COULD EXCEED TAF FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: PEAK WIND GUSTS COULD EXCEED TAF FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: PEAK WIND GUSTS COULD EXCEED TAF FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: PEAK WIND GUSTS COULD EXCEED TAF FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: PEAK WIND GUSTS COULD EXCEED TAF FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.MON NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE IN ANY NIGHTTIME
SHOWERS/TSTMS. S WINDS DIMINISH. LLWS POSSIBLE AT KISP/KBDR/KGON.
.TUE...CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN SHOWERS/TSTMS. W WINDS
G20KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.WED...VFR.
.THU...CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY AT KSWF...
OTHERWISE VFR. SW GUSTS 20-25KT.
.FRI...VFR.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT
TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/24
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...BC/PW
MARINE...GOODMAN/24
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

550 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING
EASTWARD INTO THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION BY THE END OF THE
WEEK DECAYING OR STALLING JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
540 PM UPDATE...TORNADO WATCH 278 WAS EXPANDED A TIER EASTWARD TO
INCLUDE HUNTERDON COUNTY IN NJ, AND BUCKS, MONTGOMERY AND CHESTER
COUNTIES IN PA. WE WANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT STRAIGHT-LINE DAMAGING
WINDS WILL INCREASINGLY BECOME THE PRIMARY THREAT THIS EVENING AS
STORMS CONTINUE TO ORAGANIZE INTO A LINE. DUE TO THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING, THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW
LONG INTO THE EVENING THESE STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO BE MAINTAINED
AT ITS CURRENT INTENSITY. THEREFORE, WE WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS
THE SITUATION AND COORDINATE WITH SPC IF CONVECTIVE WATCHES ARE
NEEDED FARTHER EAST TOWARD THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 278 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHEASTERN PA AND
NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY THRU 10 PM. WE ARE WATCHING SEVERAL
SUPERCELLS BACK TO OUR WEST THAT WILL TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE TORNADO WATCH AREA BETWEEN 5 AND 8 PM. WE AREA ALSO
WATCHING MORE STORMS ORGANIZING BACK INTO CENTRAL PA AND THE BLUE
RIDGE. THIS LINE OF STORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE REST OF OUR CWA
THIS EVENING (ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNSET).

SHOWERS AND TSTMS ERUPTING ACROSS NY/PA AND FURTHER SW THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ON A DECENT SRLY
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE W THIS
EVENING AND OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT. A FEW SCT SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE (3PM - 5PM) OVER THE DELMARVA AND
LOWER DEL VALLEY. POPS INCREASE INTO THE LIKELY/CATEGORICAL RANGE N
TONIGHT AND REMAIN MOSTLY CHC ACROSS THE S. GUSTY WINDS/LOCAL
FLOODING POSSIBLE WITH TSTMS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD IN THE
LOW/MID 60S NORTH AND MID/UPPER 60S S/E.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO TUESDAYS WEATHER.
AN UPPER TROUGH SLOWS AS IT CROSSES THE AREA AND THE SFC FRONT
WASHES OUT. POPS AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE HIGHER N THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT THE DAY WILL NOT BE A TOTAL WASH-OUT. THERE COULD BE A
DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ACROSS SRN NJ AND THE DELMARVA ON TUE.
TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 80S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. INITIALLY, A FAIRLY
SEASONABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH SUNNY SKIES. HOWEVER, ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WARMTH AND MOISTURE WILL BE
ADVECTED INTO THE REGION, RAISING RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND
TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. 925 MB TEMPS ARE
CURRENTLY MODELED TO BE AROUND 25C. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL
LEAD TO WARMER AND MUGGIER NIGHTS AS WELL. THESE FACTORS SUGGEST
WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS PUSHING AND EXCEEDING 90 THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
FOR MOST OF US WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID 90`S, POSSIBLY
FLIRTING WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA. AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FROM THE NORTHWEST LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY OFFER OF A BREAK WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM. HOWEVER, IT ENCOUNTERS THE
ESTABLISHED RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
WHICH WILL SLOW IT AND RESULT IN THE FRONT DECAYING OVER THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND. NOT MUCH SPREAD IN THE MODELS AND VARIOUS
ENSEMBLES IN THIS PERIOD. .

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE FOR
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD.
MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM BLANCA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
TRAVEL NORTHWARD ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE BY SATURDAY AS A RESULT, KNOCKING A LITTLE OFF THE
HEAT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CONTINUE IT`S SLOW MOVEMENT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE
HIGHER RAIN AND STORM CHANCES SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE COOLER AS WELL. THE LOCATION OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MORE UNCERTAIN BY MONDAY WITH THE FURTHER
NORTH GFS BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAT AND THE ECMWF BEING
COOLER. FOR NOW WILL TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER AND MUGGIER THAN THE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. .

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS EARLY/MID AFTERNOON WILL TRANSITION TO POORER
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST APPROACHES. MODELS
INDICATE THAT SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE...POSSIBLY AS EARLY
AS 20Z/21Z OVER THE DEL VALLEY AND THEN MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT. DECIDED TO TEMPO THE FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS FOR NOW WITH
LOW/MED CONFID. OF OCCURRENCE. IT COULD END UP BEING MORE TSTMS...SO
AMDS ARE POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE GREATER (THAN
LATE AFTERNOON) AND THE CHC FOR THUNDER GOOD WITH THE FRONT GETTING
CLOSER. TRIED TO TIME THE TEMPO GROUPS WITH THE HRRR MODEL WITH ITS
SOLUTION LOOKING REASONABLE. BEHIND THE SHOWERS/TSTMS OVERNIGHT SOME
LOW CIGS (MVFR) POSSIBLE AND PATCHY FOG ALSO EXPECTED. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TUE AFTER 13/14Z.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM,
OTHERWISE VFR. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY: MVFR AND IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE,
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS IN
THE AFTERNOON.

.MARINE...
WE WILL MAINTAIN THE PRESENT SCA FLAG FOR THE WATERS THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. THE SRLY GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
IMPROVE AND STEADY WINDS WITH G25 TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED. TSTMS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE WATERS TONIGHT AND WINDS/SEAS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS
CHOP. SCA FLAG COULD BE EXTENDED IN TIME OVER DEL BAY IF CONDITIONS
DO NOT SETTLE DOWN FAST ENOUGH.

OUTLOOK...
SUB SCA SEAS AND WINDS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. GENERAL WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS UNDER 20 KNOTS, HIGHEST GUSTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
SEAS AROUND FOUR FEET TUESDAY EVENING, SCA EXTENSION UNLIKELY ATTM.
SEAS THEN AROUND THREE FEET THROUGH SATURDAY.

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING IS MODERATE FOR BOTH THE
JERSEY SHORE AND THE DELAWARE BEACHES. THIS IS BASED ON A DECENT
LONGSHORE CURRENT DEVELOPING, WHICH SHOULD BE ENHANCED SOME
NEARSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS INCREASE.

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
431.

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES/99
NEAR TERM...KLEIN/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...GAINES/99
AVIATION...GAINES/O`HARA/99
MARINE...GAINES/O`HARA/99
RIP CURRENTS...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

420 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 278 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHEASTERN PA AND
NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY THRU 10 PM. WE ARE WATCHING SEVERAL
SUPERCELLS BACK TO OUR WEST THAT WILL TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE TORNADO WATCH AREA BETWEEN 5 AND 8 PM. WE AREA ALSO
WATCHING MORE STORMS ORGANIZING BACK INTO CENTRAL PA AND THE BLUE
RIDGE. THIS LINE OF STORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE REST OF OUR CWA
THIS EVENING (ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNSET).

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM,
OTHERWISE VFR. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY: MVFR AND IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE,
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS IN
THE AFTERNOON.

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES/99
NEAR TERM...KLEIN/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...GAINES/99
AVIATION...GAINES/O`HARA/99
MARINE...GAINES/O`HARA/99
RIP CURRENTS...STAFF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

340 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ERUPTING ACROSS NY/PA AND FURTHER SW THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ON A DECENT SRLY
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE W THIS
EVENING AND OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT. A FEW SCT SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE (3PM - 5PM) OVER THE DELMARVA AND
LOWER DEL VALLEY. POPS INCREASE INTO THE LIKELY/CATEGORICAL RANGE N
TONIGHT AND REMAIN MOSTLY CHC ACROSS THE S. GUSTY WINDS/LOCAL
FLOODING POSSIBLE WITH TSTMS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD IN THE
LOW/MID 60S NORTH AND MID/UPPER 60S S/E.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. INITIALLY, A FAIRLY
SEASONABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH SUNNY SKIES. HOWEVER, ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WARMTH AND MOISTURE WILL BE
ADVECTED INTO THE REGION, RAISING RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND
TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. 925 MB TEMPS ARE
CURRENTLY MODELED TO BE AROUND 25C. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL
LEAD TO WARMER AND MUGGIER NIGHTS AS WELL. THESE FACTORS SUGGEST
WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS PUSHING AND EXCEEDING 90 THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
FOR MOST OF US WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID 90`S, POSSIBLY
FLIRTING WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA. AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FROM THE NORTHWEST LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY OFFER OF A BREAK WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM. HOWEVER, IT ENCOUNTERS THE
ESTABLISHED RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
WHICH WILL SLOW IT AND RESULT IN THE FRONT DECAYING OVER THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND. NOT MUCH SPREAD IN THE MODELS AND VARIOUS
ENSEMBLES IN THIS PERIOD. .

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM,
OTHERWISE VFR. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY: MVFR AND IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE,
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS IN
THE AFTERNOON.

.MARINE...

WE WILL MAINTAIN THE PRESENT SCA FLAG FOR THE WATERS THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. THE SRLY GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
IMPROVE AND STEADY WINDS WITH G25 TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED. TSTMS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE WATERS TONIGHT AND WINDS/SEAS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS
CHOP. SCA FLAG COULD BE EXTENDED IN TIME OVER DEL BAY IF CONDITIONS
DO NOT SETTLE DOWN FAST ENOUGH.

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES/LAGUARDIA
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...GAINES/LAGUARDIA
AVIATION...GAINES/O`HARA/LAGUARDIA
MARINE...GAINES/O`HARA/LAGUARDIA
RIP CURRENTS...GORSE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

1049 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY. A SOUTHERN PLAINS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST AND PASS SOUTH OF OUR
AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO APPROACH AND STALL OVER OR JUST NORTH OF PENNSYLVANIA
AND NEW JERSEY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS FRONT SHOULD GET
AN ADDED PUSH AND SLOWLY SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE BATCH OF SHOWERS THAT AFFECTED THE NORTHERN AREAS
EARLIER...AND THE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS KPHL-KPNE-KBLM
HAVE...FOR THE MOST PART...WEAKENED AND MOVED OFF.

INCREASING AMTS OF SUNSHINE, A STRENGTHENING SRLY SYNOPTIC WIND
AND RISING TEMPS WILL CAUSE CAPES TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS EXPECTED FOR THE
LATE AFTERNOON. THE HRRR MODEL SHOWERS THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
DEL VALLEY AND MORE TO THE WEST/NW ACROSS THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND
SRN POCONOS. POPS WERE ADJUSTED ACCORDING TO THE HRRR TRENDS.

AS FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURES, MOSTLY A NAM/GFS MOS BLEND WAS USED
ALTHOUGH SOME TWEAKS WERE THEN MADE. THE DEW POINTS ARE FORECAST TO
BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY, THEREFORE BECOMING HUMID.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY INTO THE NORTHEAST
AND NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL INCREASE THE LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR A TIME ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING AS A STRONGER LOW-LEVEL
JET SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. WE MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH A SOLID TO
BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION INCOMING FROM THE WEST DURING THE EVENING,
HOWEVER THE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE WANING WITH TIME. THIS MAY RESULT
IN ARRIVING STRONGER MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WEAKENING AS IT
SLIDES EAST OR NORTHEASTWARD. WE SHOULD KEEP AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDER GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS COOLING ALOFT TAKES
PLACE ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY, ALTHOUGH COVERAGE
SHOULD DECREASE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. AS A RESULT, WE KEPT
THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES DURING THE EVENING THEN AT
LEAST SOME DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE SEVERITY OF THE CONVECTION IN THE EVENING WILL DEPEND ON THE
ORGANIZATION INCOMING FROM THE WEST, HOWEVER SOME STORMS TO START
THE EVENING AT LEAST IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO NORTHWESTERN NEW
JERSEY COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
OCCUR ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING WITHIN A HIGH PW ENVIRONMENT.

AS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED MAINLY AN EVEN BLEND OF THE

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED BETTER THAN THE WRF-NMMB AT 500MB
AS WELL AS WITH 850MB TEMPS AND DEWS AND IT WAS AN EVEN SPLIT
AT 925MB. THE 500MB TROF LOOKS A BIT BROADER THAN THE NAM HAS AND
ALSO SLOWER. DP/DTING THE GFS IT HAS SLOWED FROM YESTERDAY AND
TAKEN A SLIGHTLY MORE POSITIVE TILT WITH THE TROF. THE OP GFS
REMAINS FASTER THAN ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ALSO FASTER THAN MOST
OTHER MODELS. THIS PACKAGE SLOWS THE GFS DOWN 3-6HRS AND LOOKS FOR
MODEL QPF CONSENSUS TO UNDO ITS WET BIAS. THE END OF THE WEEK
STILL LOOKS HOT AND MORE HUMID. THE PREDICTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EDGING SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH, SO OUR END OF WEEK MAX TEMPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND IS TO GO MORE WITH PREDICTED MAX TEMPS OFF
OF RELATIVELY LOWER 850S VS THE MORE TORRID 925S.

FOR PCPN CHANCES ON TUESDAY, WE MAY HAVE THE REVERSE TIMING OF TODAY.
THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND MORE FAVORABLE MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE IS
IN THE MORNING. WHILE WE ARE GETTING COLDER ALOFT (AND HOLDING OUR OWN
CLOSER TO THE SFC) DURING THE AFTERNOON, WE HAVE PREDICTED NEGATIVE
LOW LEVEL THETA E ADVECTION AND MID LEVEL DIVERGENCE (APPARENTLY
CAA > DPVA). ITS LIKELY THE REASON MODEL QPF LOOKS RATHER
DISJOINTED. STILL PVA USUALLY WORKS BETTER THAN MODEL RH HANDLING
AND OFTEN THEY ARE TOO FAST WITH DEVELOPING A CAPPING INVERSION IN
SUMMER. OVERALL OUR POPS ARE HIGHER THAN STAT GUIDANCE. AS PER
BETTER SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WE HAVE HIGHER POPS INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON THAN LATER IN THE DAY. WE ALSO HAVE HIGHER POPS
NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE STRONGER SHORT WAVE AND TROF.

AS FAR AS SEVERE POTENTIAL, WE HAVE THE NICE JET STREAK THAT HAS A
HAND IN KEEPING OUR PREDICTED BULK SHEAR NORTH OF 30 KNOTS. PREDICTED
DCAPES ESPECIALLY BY AFTERNOON RISE TO 1000J. THE GFS`S EML IS STILL
THERE, BUT IS NOW A LATE ARRIVER. IF ONE LOOKS AT OTHER MODELS,
THE COLD POOL IS EVEN A LATER ARRIVER. WITH PREDICTED MIXED LAYER
CAPES NOW BELOW 1000J, ONE HAS TO WONDER IF THE UPDRAFT STRENGTH
WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR. WBZ DO DROP INTO A MORE FAVORABLE
HEIGHT FOR HAIL, BUT GIVEN THE RELATIVELY LOW CAPE, RIGHT NOW IT
WOULD BE SMALL IF IT OCCURS. MAX TEMPS REMAIN CLOSE TO HIGHER STAT
GUIDANCE.

WE MAINTAINED A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST
TUESDAY EVENING AS PER SOME LEFTOVER STABILITY AND MODELING TREND
OF A SLOWER PASSAGE OF THE TROF`S VORT MAX AND OVERALL SLIGHTLY
SLOWER MOVING OF THE COLD FRONT.

COMPLETE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR A DRY WEDNESDAY. BORDERLINE TOO AS TO
HOW MUCH CU WILL BE AROUND AS THE GFS DOES NOT HAVE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE BEING IN REACH WHILE THE WRF-NMMB BARELY DOES. THE
GFS AND WRF HAVE BEEN PLAYING LEAP FROG WITH THEIR THERMAL FIELDS
WITH TODAY THE WRF`S TURN TO BE THE HOT MODEL FOR WED. HERE WE
USED THE GFS`S RAW 925S AND 2M TEMPS FOR MAX TEMPS.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT STARTS EDGING CLOSER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE
MODELS HAVE REMNANT PCPN POSSIBLY GETTING INTO OUR NORTHERN CWA BY
MORNING. WITHOUT PREDICTED PVA AND DISAPPEARING OMEGA, WE KEPT IT DRY.

THE MODEL TREND IS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO COME CLOSER OR INTO OUR CWA
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE BRIEFLY RETREATING FARTHER NORTH. THIS
DOES ADD A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY TO THE HEAT POTENTIAL AND ALSO ADDS A
GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WE CONSERVATIVELY BUMPED
UP POPS IN TERMS OF GEOGRAPHICAL EXTENT AND OVERALL VALUES.
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT OF BANKING A HOT AIR MASS JUST SOUTH OF
THE FRONT. IN SPITE OF THE ADDED UNCERTAINTY, THE UPSIDE POTENTIAL
IS THERE AND ITS NOT EXACTLY FISHING IN A BARREL EXPECTING A
THUNDERSTORM TO SAVE THE MAX TEMP DAY. SO WE UPPED MAX TEMPS A BIT
OVER WPC AND STAT GUIDANCE. THIS BRINGS US PRETTY CLOSE TO THE
BRINK OF URBANIZED AREAS HEAT RELATED HEADLINES FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. SATURDAY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION EITHER. WANT TO MAKE SURE
THIS SOUTHWARD SAGGING FRONTAL TREND DOES NOT CONTINUE AND THAT
RELATIVELY HIGH THICKNESSES FOR 90S (1420 YDA IN THE MIDWEST)
DONT PERSIST BEFORE COMMITTING MENTION TO THE HWO OR BEYOND.
LASTLY DEW POINTS IN JUNE DO FIND WAYS TO DROP IN THE AFTERNOON.
REGARDLESS THIS IS THE NEXT LEVEL HIGHER FROM LATE MAY`S WARM
SPELL AND WILL BE WORTH WATCHING MORE INTENTLY AS WE GET ON THE
OTHER SIDE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS.

ON THE WEEKEND, THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A MUCH STRONGER BREAK FROM
THE HEAT FOLLOWING THE CFP ON OR ABOUT SATURDAY. WE USED WPC
GUIDANCE FOR UPDATED INFORMATION.

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR OVERALL, WITH A CEILING AROUND 5000 FEET THAT SHOULD
SCATTERED OUT AT TIMES. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING THROUGH
THE DAY WITH GUSTS TO ABOUT 25 KNOTS ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT MIDDAY
ONWARD. SOME SHOWERS AROUND THE KABE AND KRDG AREAS EARLY, THEN
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE INTO LINES
TO THE WEST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. HOWEVER, MUCH OF THIS IS
EXPECTED TO STAY TO OUR WEST. THE GREATEST CHANCE AND HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IS AT KRDG AND KABE, AND IT IS HERE WHERE WE CARRY A
TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR OVERALL, HOWEVER MVFR/IFR WITH ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST. AN ORGANIZED LINE
FROM THE WEST MAY TEND TO WEAKEN AS IT ARRIVES INTO THE KTTN TO KILG
CORRIDOR DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SOUTHERLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO
NEAR 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING...MVFR CONDITIONS
IN FOG AND CLOUDS EARLY AS WELL AS DURING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. VFR AT OTHER TIMES.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOWER CONDITIONS NORTH ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHER CHANCES NORTH.

.MARINE...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARM AIR IS FORECAST TO BE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP AND SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WILL HELP PROMOTE BETTER MIXING ESPECIALLY NEARSHORE,
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL ALSO BUILD THE
SEAS TO AROUND 5 FEET ON THE COASTAL WATERS. SINCE WE ARE
ANTICIPATING HIGHER GUSTS NEARSHORE, WE KEPT THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR DELAWARE BAY BUT EXTENDED IT THROUGH ABOUT MID EVENING.
ELSEWHERE, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STARTS MID TO LATE MORNING. SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ARRIVE MAINLY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WE HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE OCEAN INTO TUESDAY DAY. WE ARE MORE CONFIDENT
ABOUT SEAS THAN WINDS AT THIS POINT. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE AS TUESDAY PROGRESSES. NEVERTHELESS, AN EVENING EXTENSION
REMAINS A POSSIBILITY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL JUST NORTH OF THE MARINE WATERS,
SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS TIME.

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/MEOLA
NEAR TERM...GORSE/PO
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/GORSE/MEOLA
MARINE...GIGI/GORSE/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL

352 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
19Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A RATHER WEAK UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE FL PENINSULA...DEFINED BY WEAK RIDGING
ALOFT. LARGE REGION OF VERY DRY AIR IN THE UPPER LEVELS IS
EXPANDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS/FL EAST COAST. ALTHOUGH WV
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE DEEPEST ZONE OF DRY AIR IS STILL TO OUR
EAST/NE...THE 12Z KTBW SOUNDING DOES SHOW SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
DRYING OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS ABOVE 600MB. THE WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
IS EVIDENT WITH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BETWEEN 600-500MB. THE
DRYING AROUND 500MB IS VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
IN THAT ZONE OF THE TROP NOW OF THE MAGNITUDE AROUND 40C. THE
SUMMATION OF THIS IS A LESS FAVORABLE/MORE HOSTILE COLUMN TOWARD
DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD FOR THE REST OF TODAY. NOT ENOUGH TO
KEEP ALL STORMS DOWN...BUT ENOUGH TO LIKELY LIMIT THE OVERALL
COVERAGE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE DRIER AIR ABOVE 600MB WILL
CERTAINLY BE A NEGATIVE INFLUENCE ON DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE COLUMNS
THROUGH ENTRAINMENT...AND LAPSE RATES THROUGHOUT THE LOWER/MID
TROP UNDER 6C/KM SUGGEST OVERALL UPDRAFT STRENGTH WILL BE KEPT IN
CHECK.

OK...SO ALOFT IT IS RATHER NEGATIVE. HOWEVER...STILL FEEL THAT
CHANCE POPS ARE NECESSARY IN THE FORECAST ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR
FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...BECAUSE CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE...THE PATTERN IS MORE CLIMO FAVORED FOR WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE STORMS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS WEAK...BUT EXTENDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FL PENINSULA...PUTTING MUCH OF OUR ZONES IN A
LIGHT EAST/SE 1000-700MB FLOW REGIME. THIS REGIME IS TYPICALLY ONE
OF OUR MORE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM PATTERNS (GIVEN A TYPICAL LESS
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT)...DUE TO ITS MORE OPPOSING AND NORMAL
(RIGHT ANGLE) OF APPROACH TO THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE...AND THUS
TENDENCY TO FOCUS GREATER CONVERGENCE FOR UPDRAFT GENERATION.
THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH THEY MAY STRUGGLE... WOULD STILL EXPECT A FEW
OF THE CONVECTIVE COLUMNS TO REACH MATURITY. ALTHOUGH...STORM
LIFE-CYCLE MAY BE SHORTER THAN NORMAL THE REST OF THE DAY AS THE
SIGNIFICANT MID- LEVEL ENTRAINMENT WILL WORK NEGATIVELY AGAINST
THE UPDRAFTS THROUGH EVAPORATIVE COOLING PROCESSES.

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...THE SYNOPTIC EASTERLY FLOW WILL DELIVER
THE EAST COAST SEA-BREEZE TOWARD THE I-75 CORRIDOR. UNTIL THEN A
FEW SHOWERS WILL BE PROGRESSING EASTWARD THROUGH THE INTERIOR
ZONES (POLK/HIGHLANDS)...HOWEVER IT WILL BE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/
OR MORE LIKELY EARLY EVENING THAT THE EAST COAST SEABREEZE WILL
BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE WEST COAST BOUNDARY. IT WILL BE AT THIS
TIME THAT THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY REACH THRESHOLDS
TO SUPPORT BETTER CONVECTIVE COLUMNS INTO THE MID-LEVELS. RAIN
CHANCES AFTER 21Z WILL THEN MAXIMIZE WITH 40-50% THROUGH A NARROW
ZONES ALONG I-75. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE TOWARD 20-30% FURTHER
EAST INTO THE INTERIOR...AND FURTHER WEST TOWARD THE COAST (BEHIND
THE SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY). SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS TO
MIGRATE BACK WESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST THIS EVENING...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL. THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR HAS
ACTUALLY HINTED AT THIS POTENTIAL MIGRATION WESTWARD TOWARD
SUNSET. HOWEVER...THE MORE INTERESTING ASPECT OF THE LAST FEW HRRR
RUNS HAS BEEN THE STRENGTH OF THE EVENTUAL CONVECTION ALONG THE
I-75 CORRIDOR OF PASCO/HILLSBOROUGH AND SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING.
SIMULATED UPDRAFT VELOCITIES IN THE MODEL ENVIRONMENT ARE UPWARDS
OF 14-15M/S...WHICH IS ROBUST FOR SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION. WILL
SIMPLY HAVE TO WATCH...BUT DESPITE THE DRY AIR ALOFT...THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS DOES SEEM LIKE IT MAY STILL
EXIST.

FOR ANY OF THESE STORMS THAT DO REACH FULL MATURITY...THE
ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING PROCESSES MAY
SUPPORT A BETTER CHANCE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. THE WET
MICROBURST SEVERITY INDEX SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ISOLATED
STORMS TO BRIEFLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY WINDS AROUND 50KTS. THIS
POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY IN RADAR OPERATIONS
LATER TODAY.

LOOKING AHEAD TO TUESDAY...WE SEE A SYNOPTIC CHANGE OCCUR AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SETTLES SOUTHWARD TO A POSITION OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA. AT THE SAME TIME...MOST NWP MEMBERS SHOW THE DRIEST OF
THE AIR ALOFT RETREATING EASTWARD AND LEAVING OUR COLUMN MORE
FAVORABLE TOWARD DEEP CONVECTION AGAIN. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS
WOULD SUGGEST THE BEST STORM CHANGES SHIFTING TO OUR INLAND
ZONES...MAINLY EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR...AS THE SYNOPTIC FLOW
NOW PUSHES THE WEST COAST SEA-BREEZE ACROSS THE STATE. CURRENT
POPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE IN THE LIKELY RANGE 60-70% ACROSS THE
FAR INTERIOR...AND DECREASE TO AROUND 30% AT THE BEACHES. IN
FACT...THE 30% AT THE COAST IS ONLY FOR THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...AND THEN DECREASES EVEN MORE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE DAY WITHIN THE POST SEA BREEZE STABILIZED ENVIRONMENT. THIS
THUNDERSTORM EVOLUTION PHILOSOPHY FOR TUESDAY CONTINUES TO SEEM
REASONABLE AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.

.LONG TERM...
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM QUEBEC TO THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES INTO
EARLY THU THEN THE MAIN TROUGH LIFTS NORTH AND THE SOUTHERN END GETS
SHUNTED WEST IN RESPONSE TO UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE EAST.
THIS RIDGING BUILDS IN THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK END AND DOMINATES
THE GULF REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH FROM THE
ATLANTIC...INITIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN FL...GRADUALLY LIFTS TO NORTHERN
FL BY LATE FRI THEN MEANDERS ALONG OR NORTH OF THE GA/FL LINE THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THE CURRENT FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS WED AND THEN TRENDING DOWN AND SHIFTING NORTH THU.
THIS IS DUE TO THE LIFTING UPPER TROUGH AND SOME DEEPER MOISTURE WITH
A WEAK WAVE/TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN END OF THE SURFACE RIDGE.
THE 12Z GFS HAS BACKED OFF SOME FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS WITH LOWER
PRESSURE IN THE GULF. FOR FRI THROUGH MON THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL
HELP TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION SOME BUT THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RANGE. AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE TREKS NORTH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WITH A TIGHTENING GRADIENT. THIS MAY IMPEDE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS AND ALSO RESULT IN ROBUST WINDS ON THE GULF. FOR THIS
FORECAST HAVE KEPT WINDS AT OR BELOW EXERCISE CAUTION SPEEDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN GENERALLY AT JUST ABOVE NORMAL.

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
SEA BREEZE HAS SHIFTED WINDS ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST...AND
EVENTUALLY THIS WILL LEAD TO A THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ALONG THE
I-75 CORRIDOR (KLAL/KPGD/KFMY/KRSW). SOME POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO MOVE BACK TOWARD COASTAL TERMINALS AFTER
22Z. WILL MONITOR AND UPDATE AS NECESSARY. NO SIGNIFICANT VIS/CIG
ISSUES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY.

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD TO A
POSITION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL HOWEVER REMAIN WEAK AND WINDS 15 KNOTS
OR LESS WITH SEAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 3 FEET EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST HIGHER ASSOCIATED WITH TYPICAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.FIRE WEATHER...
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE INTO
THE DAY ON TUESDAY SHIFTING THE LARGE SCALE WINDS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST WITH TIME. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND
THEN BE MOST LIKELY INLAND FROM THE I-75 CORRIDOR ON TUESDAY.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS AND NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE IN THE
FORECAST.

FOG IMPACT...PATCHY LATE NIGHT GROUND IS LIKELY ACROSS OPEN FIELDS
IN SPOTS THAT SEE LATE DAY RAINFALL...BUT IN GENERAL NO SIGNIFICANT
FOG IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 76 89 76 88 / 30 30 20 60
FMY 73 90 74 89 / 40 40 40 50
GIF 73 91 73 90 / 30 60 30 60
SRQ 74 86 75 86 / 20 30 30 60
BKV 70 91 70 89 / 40 30 20 60
SPG 77 88 77 86 / 20 30 20 60

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER/MARINE...14/MROCZKA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...09/RUDE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

320 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

BAND OF CLOUDS CURRENTLY ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND PUSH INTO
INDIANA BEFORE SUNSET. MEANWHILE FURTHER NORTHWEST...A SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH EVIDENT ON 19Z/1PM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER EASTERN IOWA IS
BEGINNING TO TRIGGER A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. HIGH-RES MODELS SHOW THIS CONVECTION
EXPANDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
BASED ON HRRR FORECAST...WILL INCLUDE LOW CHANCE POPS NORTH OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR THROUGH ABOUT 02Z/9PM WHEN WAVE BEGINS TO EXIT THE
REGION AND DAYTIME INSTABILITY WANES. AFTER THAT...EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL RESULT IN WARM, SUMMERLIKE
TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID-WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
80S FOR TUESDAY. HOWEVER, BY WEDNESDAY INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS/RIDGING WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TOWARD THE
LOWER 90S.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
COULD PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS NORTH OF I-74 FROM
NORTHEAST OF PEORIA TO DANVILLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND GENERAL FLATTENING OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH CENTRAL IL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.

MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AS WELL AS AN ABUNDANT SOURCE OF
MOISTURE WILL TAKE AIM AT CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT ONLY WILL GULF MOISTURE BE PLENTIFUL BUT REMNANT
MOISTURE FROM PACIFIC TROPICAL STORM BLANCA COULD SET THE STAGE FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS SINCE MANY RIVERS AND CREEKS ARE ALREADY
FLOODED FROM LAST NIGHTS DELUGE.

WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. FROM THE
END OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL IL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE HEAVY RAINFALL ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER AT BOTH KDEC AND KCMI THROUGH 19Z BEFORE
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING AND PUSHING EAST OF THE TERMINALS.
FURTHER NORTHWEST...ISOLATED CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
ACROSS EASTERN IOWA/NORTHWEST ILLINOIS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT KPIA AND KBMI AS
THIS WAVE SKIRTS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET...FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...BARNES

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

1231 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1028 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

15Z/10AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK COLD FRONT ALONG THE I-55
CORRIDOR...WITH THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN NOW WELL TO THE SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. BEHIND THE
FRONT...SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE WESTERN KILX CWA AND THIS
CLEARING WILL WORK ITS WAY EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
WISCONSIN/NORTHEAST IOWA WILL SKIRT ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS
TODAY. LAPSE RATES BENEATH THIS FEATURE WILL BECOME STEEP ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING PEAK
HEATING. HRRR SHOWS THIS TREND QUITE WELL...WITH THE BEST AREAL
COVERAGE ALONG/NORTH OF THE I-74 CORRIDOR. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO FEATURE A MORE DISTINCT WEST-TO-EAST CLEARING TREND
THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED
POPS TO GO DRY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...EXPECT FOR SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70. AFTER THAT...HAVE INTRODUCED ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS FROM MID-AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

MCS STILL PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF I-72 EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN OVER SOUTHEAST IL
INTO MID MORNING. HAVE ALLOWED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO EXPIRE
IN SOUTHEAST IL AT 3 AM. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH SOUTH OF I-72 DURING THE MORNING AND LINGER LONGEST IN
SOUTHEAST IL. THEN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY EASTERN IL. SPC HAS
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA FOR HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. WARM HIGHS
IN THE MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER INTO THE EVENING OVER
EASTERN IL MAINLY UP UNTIL SUNSET. DIRUNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
DISSIPATES OR SHIFTS EAST WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS MOVING EAST OF
IL BY SUNSET. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 60S WITH GALESBURG BEING THE
COOLEST NEAR 60F. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE TO BE OVER THE MID MS RIVER
VALLEY TUE WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF PULLING FURTHER AWAY FROM IL.
SHOULD BE A DRY DAY WITH WARM HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S (WARMEST
IN SW CWA). DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S SO NOT TOO
HUMID OF A DAY. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TUE NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S (COOLEST IN EASTERN IL).

A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
ON WED AND DRIVES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SE INTO THE IL RIVER VALLEY
WED AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH LIFT THIS FAR SOUTH OVER CENTRAL IL WED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THOUGH HAVE SOME INSTABILITY WITH CAPES OF
1000 J/KG. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
FROM I- 72 NORTH WED INTO WED EVENING AND SPC EVEN HAS MARGINAL
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS DURING WED AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS
AND HAIL. VERY WARM WED WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 90F AND GETTING
MORE HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE OVER NORTHERN IL THU WITH
CENTRAL/SE IL IN VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS. FRONT IS CLOSE ENOUGH
TO GIVE CENTRAL IL A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY
FROM I-74 NORTH. HIGHS THU IN THE UPPER 80S CENTRAL IL AND NEAR 90F
IN SOUTHEAST IL.

UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TO OCCUR LATE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES EJECTING NE AND OVER TOP OF RIDGE INTO IL. THIS
TO PROVIDE DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGHS FRI RANGE FROM LOWER 80S NW OF THE IL RIVER TO THE
UPPER 80S IN SOUTHEAST IL WHERE MORE SUNSHINE POSSIBLE AND LESS OF A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S. HUMID WEATHER PREVAILS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S AND LOW TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO THESE READINGS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...BARNES
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...BARNES

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

1028 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1028 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

A NORTHERNS STREAM SHORT WAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON
WED AND DRIVES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SE INTO THE IL RIVER VALLEY WED
AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH LIFT THIS FAR SOUTH OVER CENTRAL IL WED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THOUGH HAVE SOME INSTABLITY WITH CAPES OF 1000
J/KG. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM I-
72 NORTH WED INTO WED EVENING AND SPC EVEN HAS MARGINAL RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS DURING WED AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.
VERY WARM WED WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 90F AND GETTING MORE HUMID WITH
DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

A BAND OF SHOWERS AFFECTING KDEC-KCMI EARLY IN TAF PERIOD...WHILE
LOCALLY DENSE FOG AND LOW CEILINGS AFFECT AT KSPI-KPIA-KBMI.
RESULTING CONDITIONS GENERALLY IFR/LIFR FOR A FEW HOURS THEN
DAYTIME HEATING AND A BRIEF BREAK IN THE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ALLOW
VFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BY 13Z-14Z. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON TRIGGERING
ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 18Z.
MODEL TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS INDICATE GENERAL CEILINGS ABOVE MVFR
THRESHOLDS FOR AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA SO HAVE INCLUDED VCTS IN
TAFS...ALTHOUGH SOME CHANCE FOR BRIEF/LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
OR WORSE POSSIBLE. CLEARING EXPECTED AFTER 00Z. WINDS S-SW 5-10
KTS BECOMING W 10-12 WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS AFTER 16Z. WINDS
DECREASING AND TURNING WNW AFTER 00Z.

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...BARNES
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ONTON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

1232 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

STORMS ARE VINALLY PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST OVER THE CWA THIS
EVENING. WILL BE WORKING TO UPDATE THE FORECAST TO LOWER POPS AND
TO REMOVE PARTS OF THE WATCH. UPDATE WILL BE FORTHCOMING BUT MAY
TAKE A LITTLE TIME.

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

20Z/3PM RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO INITIATE
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...MAINLY ALONG A HENRY...TO GALESBURG...TO
FORT MADISON IOWA LINE. THESE STORMS WILL BE INTERACTING WITH A
STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS...CHARACTERIZED BY
SBCAPE VALUES OF 3000 TO 3500J/KG. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 30-35KT
SHOULD HELP ENHANCE/SUSTAIN THE THUNDERSTORM CELLS AS THEY TRACK
E/SE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS. HRRR SHOWS THE CONVECTION PUSHING ACROSS MAINLY
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE KILX CWA...THEN EXITING INTO INDIANA BY
AROUND 01Z. AFTER THAT...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MISSOURI THIS EVENING...THEN PUSH
EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT. BY THAT
POINT THE AIRMASS WILL LIKELY HAVE BEEN STABILIZED BY THE FIRST
ROUND OF CONVECTION EARLY IN THE EVENING...SO ADDITIONAL SEVERE
WEATHER APPEARS MINIMAL. DESPITE THIS...AM STILL CONCERNED ABOUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM
1.50 TO 1.75. SINCE THERE IS CURRENTLY A MONTHLY AND YEARLY
RAINFALL DEFICIT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND THE STORMS WILL
BE PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE...THINK WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS
UNLIKELY. WILL THEREFORE NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH...BUT
INSTEAD HIT HEAVY RAIN THREAT HARD IN THE HWO...ZONE FORECAST...AND
ESF.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LINGER IN THE SOUTHEAST
TOMORROW FOLLOWED BY A WEAK TROUGH THAT WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE GRT
LKS REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. THEN AS
EVERYTHING PUSHES FURTHER EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
TRY AND BRING SOME PCPN INTO THE REGION FOR WE AND WED NIGHT BUT
BELIEVE MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED SO IF THERE IS ANY PCPN THEN IT
WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND ONLY WORTH A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
GRIDS...WHICH WILL NOT BE MENTIONED IN THE WORDED FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TAKES HOLD OVER THE AREA AND TROUGH
DEVELOPS OUT IN THE PLAINS...PCPN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
AGAIN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE SOME
DIFFERENCES SO WILL JUST KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH OF THUR AND
THUR NIGHT...AND THEN OVER THE WHOLE AREA FOR FRI THROUGH SUNDAY.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD...SITTING IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S MOST OF THE AREA. HIGHS AROUND 90 WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

STRONG TO SEVERE MCS WITH LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE RECENTLY SHIFTED SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE PIA AND BMI AIRPORTS
AROUND MIDNIGHT. WILL JUST CARRY VCSH NEXT HOUR OR TWO ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE CEILINGS BELOW 1K FT AT TIMES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BRINGING VSBYS AS LOW AS 2-4 MILES WITH HEAVIER RAINS ALONG I-72
UNTIL 08Z ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND WILL NEED TO WATCH CMI FOR
POSSIBLE CELINGS BELOW 1K FT TOO WHERE FEW004 CURRENTLY OBSERVED.
A COLD FRONT PUSHING SE INTO NW IL WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL IL
BETWEEN 09Z-15Z WITH SW WINDS OF 5-10 KTS SHIFTING WEST. WINDS
WILL BE WNW AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS WITH FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS
AFTER 15Z MON AND THEN DIMINISH LIGHT BY SUNSET MONDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROF MOVING EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL GENERATE ISOLATE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS 4-6K FT MONDAY AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR BY
SUNSET MONDAY EVENING.

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

UPDATE...AUTEN
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...AUTEN
AVIATION...07

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

158 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

A FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL
KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND UNTIL TONIGHT WHEN THE FRONT
FINALLY CLEARS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS
BRIEFLY BUT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN FOR PARTS OF THE AREA
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE PATTERN
TRANSITIONING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW.

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1135 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

HAVE BUMPED POPS DOWN PER RADAR AND HRRR TRENDS.

ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

RADAR MOSAIC AT 330 AM SHOWED A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN
MISSOURI ACROSS ILLINOIS. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WITH SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER WAS ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHWEST AND
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL INDIANA. LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED
OVER ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH
ILLINOIS AND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. EXPECT
RAINFALL TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS CONVECTION MOVES
MAINLY EASTWARD BUT ALSO SAGS SOUTH WITH TIME.

FOR TODAY THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA...AND THERE IS
AN INDICATION THAT A SURFACE WAVE COULD MOVE ALONG IT KEEPING IT
STALLED OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
ALSO WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS STILL OFF TO THE WEST THINK THERE
WILL BE PLENTY OF FORCING AVAILABLE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE NOT CLIMBED AS HIGH AS MODELS WERE
PREVIOUSLY INDICATING...AND WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALREADY SOUTH
OF THE AREA THINK THE BIG HEAVY RAIN THREAT COULD BE BEHIND US.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES TODAY...BUT AT THIS POINT PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS IS LOW ENOUGH TO DROP THE MENTION FROM THE FORECAST.

THERE WILL STILL BE INSTABILITY AVAILABLE TODAY BUT IT SHOULD WANE
AS ATMOSPHERE IS WORKED OVER AND CONTINUED RAINFALL AROUND KEEPS
CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA. A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT OVERALL RISK IS PRETTY LOW.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK WITH COOLER GUIDANCE NUMBERS GIVEN THE CLOUD
COVER.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND GENERALLY USED A CONSENSUS
APPROACH. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AT THE
START OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD CONTINUED TO CARRY LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE 6Z. AFTER THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BRIEFLY AND CLEAR SKIES OUT. THE NEXT CHANCES FOR STORMS
WILL ARRIVE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH AND THE FRONT WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES SO NOT SURE THAT IT
WILL GET DOWN INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...BUT MODELS
HAVE A LITTLE FASTER/STRONGER WITH THIS FRONT SO INCLUDED SOME LOW
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY USED A MOS AVERAGE.
LEANED TOWARD WARMER NUMBERS FOR WEDNESDAY HIGHS THOUGH WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING ABOVE 18C.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY
BRIEFLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY TO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE.
FOLLOWING THIS...RIDGING WILL RETURN THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT WILL BE DRAPED WEST TO EAST FROM
WESTERN IOWA...ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA...UP INTO THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES. THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PUSHES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.
THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT BEHIND IT. THESE FEATURES
WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYERS FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.
REGIONAL BLEND SUPPORTS THIS PATTERN.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT AT LEAST SOME OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
FEED FOR THIS WEEKEND WILL BE FLOWING INTO CENTRAL INDIANA FROM
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES. THIS FEED LOOKS TO ORIGINATE
FROM THE REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE THAT RECENTLY IMPACTED
THE BAJA PENINSULA OFF OF MEXICO IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN. MODELS
INDICATE THAT AVAILABLE PRECIPITABLE WATER DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
IS ON THE ORDER OF 2 INCHES.

INITIALIZATION HANDLES THE TEMPERATURES WELL SO NO CHANGES WERE
MADE. WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
AND THEN COOL OFF TO START THE WEEKEND AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY REBOUND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 081800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR LEVELS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER
THAN BRIEF RESTRICTIONS WITHIN STORMS THIS EVENING...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR STRATUS BEGINNING TO MIX OUT NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...WITH EXPECTATION THAT CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO AROUND 4KFT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. KBMG AND KIND BOTH LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY
SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH DRY WEATHER
ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL VEER TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AROUND 10-15KTS WITH SPORADIC GUSTS.

UPPER LEVEL WAVE WITH A SECONDARY BOUNDARY SET TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE EVENING...LIKELY SPARKING AN ADDITIONAL PERIOD
WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION. WILL CARRY A 3 TO 4 HOUR PERIOD OF VCTS
AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 03-04Z. BEYOND THAT...SKIES WILL CLEAR
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. COULD SEE BRIEF MVFR FOG
LATE AT ALL BUT KIND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP IT DRY TUESDAY WITH
JUST SCATTERED CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AT UP TO 10KTS.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP/NIELD
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...MMB/RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

120 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1135 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

HAVE BUMPED POPS DOWN PER RADAR AND HRRR TRENDS.

ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK WITH COOLER GUIDANCE NUMBERS GIVEN THE CLOUD
COVER.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 153 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN HAVING SOME DIFFICULTIES AGREEING
ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF VARIOUS PERTURBATIONS IN THE SYNOPTIC
UPPER FLOW. THUS...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE NEXT WEEK AND WEEKEND IS NOT GREAT. PREFER NOT TO
STRAY TOO FAR FROM THE REGIONAL INITIALIZATION WHICH HAS POPS ALL
PERIODS BUT MAINLY DURING THE WEEKEND...WHEN A SURFACE RIDGE SETS UP
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ALLOWING A RETURN OF MOISTURE FROM THE
GULF THAT WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR VARIOUS SHORT WAVES...THAT WILL RIDE
NORTHEAST OVER TOP AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING FROM THE SOUTHERN STATES
TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S PER REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES BUT
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 081800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR LEVELS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER
THAN BRIEF RESTRICTIONS WITHIN STORMS THIS EVENING...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP/NIELD
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

1135 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1135 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

HAVE BUMPED POPS DOWN PER RADAR AND HRRR TRENDS.

ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK WITH COOLER GUIDANCE NUMBERS GIVEN THE CLOUD
COVER.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 153 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S PER REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES BUT
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 081500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1033 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

CHAOTIC CEILINGS/WINDS THIS MORNING ON BACK SIDE OF THE WEAKENING
RAIN SHIELD. WINDS HAVE LARGELY REVERTED TO W/SW AT AROUND 10KTS
WITH AN OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUST. EXPECT SLOW VEERING TO A MORE
WESTERLY DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY DROPS THROUGH THE
REGION. MVFR CEILINGS...AND LOWER IN SOME AREAS...WILL SLOWLY RISE
INTO THE AFTERNOON. REORGANIZED POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AS
WELL...DELAYING VCTS MENTION LATER INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR AIRMASS TO DESTABILIZE AGAIN...AND TRAILING
UPPER WAVE SHOULD KEEP SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH AT LEAST MID
EVENING.

12Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SOLID RAIN WAS OCCURRING THIS MORNING AT ALL BUT LAF. EVEN AT
LAF...THERE WAS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION FAIRLY CLOSE
BY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHED FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS TO
NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI. THIS FRONT SHOULD DROP SOUTH TODAY...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT ON TIMING...WITH A SURFACE WAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT POSSIBLY SLOWING IT DOWN. IT STILL LOOKS
LIKE SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF SOLID RAIN AT IND...HUF AND BMG AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AT LAF WITH POSSIBLE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
REDEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF ALL THE TERMINALS...AHEAD OF AN
UPPER TROUGH. SO...WILL CARRY VCSH AT LAF THROUGH 14Z AND AGAIN
AFTER 19Z. ELSEWHERE...WILL GO WITH LIGHT RAIN THROUGH 16Z WITH VCTS
AFTER 19Z. CEILINGS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING AROUND FROM VFR AC TO MVFR
CUMULONIMBUS OR NIMBOSTRATUS. PREFER TO GO PESSIMISTIC UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON HOURS PER MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS. BRIEF CLEARING IS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WITH MVFR OR WORSE STRATOCU LIKELY FORMING
OVERNIGHT.

WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE WEST AND SOUTHWEST TO 12 KNOTS AND LESS THAN 9
KNOTS AFTER 01Z.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP/NIELD
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK/RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

351 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS AS OF 19Z SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO TRACK EAST INTO SOUTHEASTERN
KENTUCKY. SOME STORMS ALONG THIS LINE HAVE BEEN MARGINALLY SEVERE
WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS FOR THE FIRST
LINE OF STORMS AND THEN HI RES MODELS HAVE A SECOND LINE OF STORMS
MOVING THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING. BASED UPON TRENDS...IT SEEMS
THIS EARLIER LINE HAS REAPED A BUNCH OF THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY
AND THIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER LATER.
HENCE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH
00Z.

WITH A BIT OF CLEARING TONIGHT...SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
AND HAVE PUT THIS INTO THE FORECAST. THE NAM AND HRRR WOULD
SUGGEST THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH BY 06Z TONIGHT AND THEN NEARLY
WASHING OUT ALONG THE VA AND TN BORDER. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO
PRECIP OVER THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE
BOUNDARY WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND BECOME
AN AREA FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE EXPECTED.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT BECOMES WASHED OUT ENOUGH AND SLIDES
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT ENOUGH CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE FOR ANOTHER
NIGHT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT WHICH MAY BE DENSE IN SOME OF THE DEEPER
VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. THEY ALL DEPICT A RETREAT OF THE EASTERN TROUGH FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN RISING HEIGHTS
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE COUNTRY AS A RATHER
UNREMARKABLE RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALSO SERVE TO KEEP THE MORE ORGANIZED
CLUSTERS OF ENERGY WELL NORTH OF KENTUCKY WHILE OTHER WEAK BATCHES
SLIP THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE RIDGE - INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO
VALLEY. LATE IN THE PERIOD...INTO SUNDAY...A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH...STRONGEST IN THE 12Z ECMWF...WILL BRUSH PAST THE STATE AND
SOME BETTER ENERGY CLUSTERS MAY MAKE IT CLOSE ENOUGH TO EAST
KENTUCKY TO HAVE AN IMPACT FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. IN
THE WAKE OF THIS NORTHERN WAVE...THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE WOULD THEN
FURTHER BUILD OVER THE AREA BUT LIKELY NOT OF SUFFICIENT STRENGTH TO
SHUT DOWN ANY CONVECTION BENEATH IT. GIVEN THE BROAD MODEL
AGREEMENT...A BLENDED SOLUTION APPEARS REASONABLE.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A COLD FRONT DISSIPATING WELL SOUTH OF
KENTUCKY AT MID WEEK WHILE A DRIER AIR MASS AND RATHER WEAK SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY AT BAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT ENOUGH RETURN FLOW MOISTURE
AND HEAT WILL SEEP INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY TO ALLOW FOR SOME AIR
MASS CONVECTION BY AFTERNOON. THE DIURNAL CYCLE WILL THEN DOMINATE
THROUGH THE BULK OF THE WEEKEND AS ANY SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS STAY TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA. THAT MAY CHANGE LATER SUNDAY...THOUGH...AS A COLD
FRONT TRIES TO SLIP CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR NORTHERN BORDER TO HAVE AN
IMPACT. THIS BOUNDARY THEN LINGERS NEARBY...LIKELY HELPING TO
TRIGGER CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
TYPICAL SUMMER-TIME HEAT WILL BE UPON US THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...SOME 90S WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY...WITH RELIEF
OFFERED BY SCATTERED CONVECTION STARTING FRIDAY AND LASTING
THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE CR GRID BLEND CAME IN REASONABLY WELL WITH MOST ADJUSTMENTS MADE
TO ACCOUNT FOR A DIURNAL CYCLE DOMINATED PATTERN OF CONVECTION FOR
THE END OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...DID ADJUST THE LOWS TO ACCOUNT FOR TERRAIN EFFECTS
EACH NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

EXPECT TWO SEPARATE LINES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT.
SJS...JKL...AND LOZ WILL EXPERIENCE SOME BELOW IFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH 21Z WITH THE LOW CIGS AND LOW VIS. AFTER THIS...A SECOND
LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z BRINGING TAF
SITES DOWN TO FIELD MINS FOR A FEW HOURS. WINDS WILL LARGELY BE
SOUTHWEST WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES BUT WINDS WITHIN
THUNDERSTORMS MAY GUST UP TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL THEN
BECOME LIGHT AFTER 06Z TONIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING SKIES AS WELL.
THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS DAWN TOMORROW
MORNING.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

310 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

ISSUED AN UPDATE TO FINE TUNE POPS ACROSS THE AREA AS THE LINE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVED THROUGH. SOME OF THE STORMS HAVE BEEN
SEVERE BUT MAINLY DEPENDENT UPON SOME GOOD INSTABILITY THAT HAS
DEVELOPED OVER FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY WHERE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE HAS
OCCURRED. ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THE SECOND ROUND OF STORMS THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THE
UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP AND SENT TO NDFD AND
WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1023 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE A WELL DEFINED LINE OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY MOVING
NORTHEAST AS THE OVERALL LINE SHIFTS EAST. CURRENTLY...CLOUD
COVER AND MID MORNING CONDITIONS ARE KEEPING THIS ACTIVITY PRETTY
TAME. A FEW SHOWERS AND A STORM OR TWO WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THIS LINE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
FOR THIS EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THIS LINE
BEGINNING TO CROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE MAIN EXPECTED SEVERE THREAT TO
FOLLOW IT. IF THIS DOES OCCUR...WHICH SEEMS LIKELY...THERE WILL BE
A GENERAL DECREASE IN OVERALL EXPECTED SEVERE THREAT...HENCE WHY
SPC HAS KEPT A SLIGHT RISK AND LOWERED THE OVERALL TORNADO RISK
OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY...LIMITED TO SOUTH CENTRAL KY. THIS ALSO
LEAD TO A LESS CERTAINTY OF A HAIL THREAT AND FOR THE UPDATE TO
THE FORECAST...HAVE GONE WITH A GENERAL SEVERE MENTION TO THE
STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. A NEW ZFP HAS
BEEN SENT OUT ALONG WITH THE GRIDS TO THE WEB AND NDFD SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

READJUSTED RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING AS THE OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION HAS SLOWED UP AND IS JUST INCHING SOUTHWARD NOW. ITS
JUST ABOUT TO CROSS INTO FLEMING COUNTY. WHILE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
IS POSSIBLE AS THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS SOUTH...THE MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL ARRIVE AFTER 1 OR 2 PM. LATEST HRRR
AND RAP IS SPEEDING UP ONSET OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT NO NEED
TO ADJUST ANYTHING IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT AS ONSET SHOULD
STILL BE THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE WE SHOULD SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS
AROUND TODAY...IT DOES LOOK LIKE ENOUGH HEATING SHOULD TAKE PLACE
TO BUILD THE INSTABILITY NEEDED FOR SEVERE STORMS. THUS...IT LOOKS
LIKE THE THREAT MAY BE INCREASING FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

...SEVERE WEATHER A POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO REVOLVE AROUND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ACROSS INDIANA...BUT HAS SENT AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY. WITH NORTH WINDS INTERSECTING WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ACROSS THIS REGION. THE SEGMENT OF THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HEADING FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY WON`T HAVE THE SAME
CONVERGENCE AS OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THUS...NOT SURE WE WILL SEE
MUCH COVERAGE IN SHOWERS AS THIS BOUNDARY SLIPS INTO OUR AREA THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH THIS
MORNING...BUT WE HAVE NOTED SOME WARMING IN THE CLOUD TOPS
UPSTREAM...SUGGESTING THE CLOUDS MAY GIVE WAY BY MID TO LATE
MORNING WITH AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE POSSIBLE. THIS WILL BE
A KEY FACTOR TODAY...AS ANY SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW THE AREA TO
DESTABILIZE...AND BUILD INSTABILITY. THIS WILL IN TURN HELP TO
FUEL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING NEAR THE OHIO RIVER BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FACT THAT THE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SUPPORTS SHOWER AND STORM
DEVELOPMENT AS WELL WITH GOOD DYNAMICS DEVELOPING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION. THUS...IT WON`T TAKE MUCH INSTABILITY TO FIRE OFF
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

THERE IS A DECENT SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MUCH OF
THE SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN CONTINGENT ON SEEING SOME CLEARING
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY SO WE CAN DESTABILIZE. HOWEVER...ASSUMING
THIS HAPPENS...HERE IS WHAT WE CAN EXPECT... BULK SHEAR VALUES
CLIMB TO BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KNOTS WHICH IS MORE THAN ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. FLOW IS FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL...
SUPPORTING MORE LINEAR CONVECTION WITH BOWING SEGMENTS. THE LOW
LEVEL (0-3KM) SHEAR COMPONENT ALSO DOES NOT APPEAR WILL BE LINE
NORMAL...WHICH WOULD BE LESS FAVORABLE FOR QLCS TORNADOES.
HOWEVER...SEVERE WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 60 MPH WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE AND BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGE. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHT WILL BE
AROUND 10KFT...WHICH IS FAIRLY HIGH...BUT IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY
CAN BUILD...LARGE HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EXIT TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING...BUT COLD
FRONT MAY LAG BEHIND AND MAY NOT CROSS THE AREA UNTIL TUESDAY.
THUS...THE THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...AND WE MAY EVEN SEE A POP UP THUNDERSTORM ON
TUESDAY IF THE BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE AREA. THUS...WILL KEEP AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY.
CLOUD COVER COULD BE TRICKY...AS IT DEPENDS ON HOW QUICKLY THE
FRONT SAGS SOUTH AND HOW MUCH LOW CLOUDS (IF ANY) WE SEE
POSTFRONTAL. FOR NOW...GOING TO GO MORE MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH CLOUDS BREAKING UP BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER ON TUESDAY WITH READINGS AROUND 80
AND SLIGHTLY LESS HUMIDITY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

214 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1023 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

...SEVERE WEATHER A POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE AXIS OF A TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. AT THAT TIME... A RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WITH RIDGING
EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION. MEANWHILE A BROAD
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE WORKING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WESTERN US
WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD BE NEARING THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

THE INITIAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHEASTERN US SOUTH TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL LIFT ON OUT TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY IN
THE PERIOD...WHILE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN A
BIT BECOMING CENTERED CLOSER TO THE BAJA OF CALIFORNIA AND BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US. AT THE SAME TIME...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD PASS BY TO OUR NORTHERN MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC AS WELL AS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN STATES. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE ALIGNED
WELL NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF EASTERN KY FROM THU INTO FRIDAY. THIS
FRONT COULD SAG SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE REGION AT THE END
OF THE PERIOD. ALSO...BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND...MODELS
GENERALLY HAVE INCREASING MOISTURE WORKING NORTH FROM THE GULF AND
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AROUND THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THIS RIDGE...BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS AND ROCKIES.

DRIER AIR WILL HAVE WORKED INTO THE REGION EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. SFC AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD GENERALLY DOMINATE DURING THAT PERIOD...WITH DRY
WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER ON THURSDAY.
ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP OVER THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU REGION AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE VA BORDER ON THU.
THEN... UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH GENERALLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS MOISTURE
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AND WHETHER OR
NOT THERE IS MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION AT NIGHT OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL BE LARGELY DRIVEN BY THE POSITION OF THE
RIDGE AXIS AND HOW CLOSE THE FRONTAL ZONE IS. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
WITH BOTH OF THESE FEATURES.

THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD SHOULD COME ON THURSDAY...BEFORE
MOISTURE AND CONVECTION CHANCES INCREASE. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD GENERALLY BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL AND DIURNAL RANGES MAY BE
LIMITED LATER IN THE PERIOD DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE AND THE
PRESENCE OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

1024 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1023 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

...SEVERE WEATHER A POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

WHILE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THERE ARE SOME BIG AVIATION CONCERNS. FIRST...WINDS WILL
TURN GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. WIND GUSTS UP TO 25
KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THE SECOND CONCERN IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS ARE
STARTING TO COME INTO AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE CONVECTION SO
HAVE NARROWED IN THE TIME RANGE IN THE TAFS WITH A 3 TO 4 HOUR
WINDOW THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITHIN THE THUNDERSTORMS...A PERIOD
OF IFR/MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS. ALONG WITH THESE ISSUES...A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE WHICH COULD CONTAIN WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. AVIATION CONCERNS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 00Z THIS
EVENING AS THUNDERSTORMS DEPART AND WEAKEN...AND WINDS SUBSIDE.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...KAS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

655 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

...SEVERE WEATHER A POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...KAS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

223 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

ALL IS QUIET IN EASTERN KENTUCKY AND SHOULD STAY THAT WAY THROUGH
DAYBREAK. SHOWERS AND STORMS UPSTREAM HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO WEAKEN
AS THEY ENCOUNTER LESS INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TO THE SOUTH. LATEST
MESOANALYSIS DOES NOT SHOW MUCH SHEAR OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
KENTUCKY WITH ONLY SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY. WITH THIS
SAID...THE WEAKENING TREND IS ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WILL WORK SOUTHEAST WITH THE DYING CONVECTION AND MAY
EVENTUALLY CROSS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.
THIS MAY TRIGGER A FEW ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. STILL LOOKING LIKE BETTER THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE AFTER 2 PM AS THE ATMOSPHERE RELOADS UPSTREAM OVER
SOUTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN OHIO. LATEST HRRR DOES NOT APPEAR TO
CAPTURE LATEST WEATHER VERY WELL...BUT RAP SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK
AND HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS.
THUS...WILL LEAN A BIT MORE TOWARDS THE RAP SOLUTION THROUGH THE
NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. PLAN TO REMOVE THUNDER THIS MORNING AS THE
LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL KEEP THINGS AT BAY. STILL EXPECTING US TO
DESTABILIZE LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT
IF CLOUD COVER PERSIST...THAT WOULD PUT A HUGE HIT ON OUR SEVERE
POTENTIAL. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS WE WORK THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. FOR NOW...JUST TWEAKED POPS THROUGH DAYBREAK INTO THE
MORNING HOURS AND REMOVED THUNDER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1038 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015

THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS EVENING. BASED ON LATEST NAM12 MODEL
DATA AND TRENDS OBSERVED IN UPSTREAM RADAR AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY...IT DOES APPEAR THAT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT ENTERS
EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL NOT MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA UNTIL 10 OR
11Z ON MONDAY. INGESTED THE LATEST OBS DATA INTO THE GRIDS TO
ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS. ASIDE FROM THAT...NO UPDATE TO THE FORECAST
IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 734 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015

UPDATED THE FORECAST GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA. SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY THAT HAD FIRED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE AREA EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAS LONG SINCE DISSIPATED. NOW
THAT SUN SET IS APPROACHING...AND WITH NO NEW ACTIVITY HAVING
POPPED UP ACROSS THE AREA...DECIDED TO REMOVE ANY FURTHER MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORECAST UNTIL AROUND DAWN ON MONDAY.
WILL BE SENDING OUT AN UPDATED SET OF ZONES SHORTLY TO REMOVE THE
LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD INCLUDED BY THE DAY SHIFT AND TO REMOVE
ANY OUTDATED WORDING IN THE TONIGHT PERIOD THAT MAY HAVE BEEN IN
THERE BEFORE.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015

AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK WARM FRONT JUST TO THE WEST
OF THE REGION AND LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS LIFT
SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN ENOUGH TO FIRE OFF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE WISE THIS HAS BEEN BEST PICKED UP BY THE HRRR.
GIVEN THIS DID INTRODUCE SOME ISOLATED POPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE MOST AREAS WILL FEATURE PASSING CIRRUS FROM WHAT IS LEFT
FROM NORTHERN TRACKING MCS AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU. TONIGHT ALL
EYES TURN TO LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST. THIS
PROGRESSION WILL BE AIDED BY AMPLIFIED TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. RIGHT NOW THIS BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT
WILL BE FROM PREFRONTAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR NW GENERALLY
NORTH OF I-64. THINKING THE INITIAL LINE WILL BE UNDER SEVERE
LIMITS AT THIS POINT AS IT TRACKS SE. THE CAVEAT TO THIS INITIAL
CONVECTION IS WHAT ROLE DOES IT PLAY IN LATER SEVERE TREAT. ANY
LEFT OVER CLOUD COVER COULD WANE DAYTIME HEATING WHICH WOULD LIMIT
BETTER INSTABILITY.

RIGHT NOW DO THINK A SEVERE TREAT EXISTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT GENERALLY BETWEEN 18Z TO 05Z GIVEN CAPES AOA 2000
J/KG...DCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG AT TIMES...SOME REASONABLE SPEED
SHEAR/SLIGHTLY LESS IN THE WAY OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...STRONG LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND MID LEVEL DRYING. THE PRIMARY THREAT GIVEN
THE GUIDANCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL WITH MORE A MULTICELL CLUSTER/SQUALL LINE STORM MODE.
CLIMATOLOGY IN THE FORM OF CIPS ANALOGS BRING A BIT MORE
CONFIDENCE SHOWING A FEW SEVERE HAIL AND WIND REPORTS UNDER
SIMILAR REGIMES. HOWEVER GIVEN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SOME
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH HAIL THREAT GIVEN THE HIGHER FZL ABOVE 10
KFT AND WBZ MOSTLY ABOVE 10 KFT. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION ALONG
WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND MOVE MOSTLY
EAST OF THE REGION LATER ON TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015

THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST BEGINS ON TUESDAY WITH A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC EXITING TO
THE EAST. AFTER THIS...MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
NUDGES NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND MUCH OF THURSDAY.
THE MID LEVEL RIDGES MOVES SOUTHEAST JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST
ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA FOR THE THURSDAY EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY PORTION OF THE EXTENDED.

CLOSER TO THE SURFACE ON TUESDAY...THE EXITING TROUGH WILL BRING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AND IT BECOMES STALLED ALONG THE TN AND
VA BORDER AND THIS AREA BECOMES A FOCUS AREA FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BY WEDNESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT
PASSES BY TO THE NORTH AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AS WELL WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH HOT AND
MOIST AIR STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. WITH THESE DAYS...CONVECTION WILL TAKE A MORE DIURNAL
TREND AND AS SUCH HAVE UNDERCUT THE POPS A BIT DURING THE NIGHT
PERIODS. AS WELL...THE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR IN THE EXTENDED LEAD TO
SOME LOWERING OF DAYTIME POPS A BIT AS WELL.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS AND LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS
IN THE MID 60S WHICH IS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. SO THE LAST HALF OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE A MORE DIURNAL
TREND FOR PRECIP WITH HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

WHILE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THERE ARE SOME BIG AVIATION CONCERNS. FIRST...WINDS WILL
TURN GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY 15Z TODAY. WIND GUSTS UP TO 25
KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THE SECOND CONCERN IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS ARE
STARTING TO COME INTO AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE CONVECTION
SO HAVE NARROWED IN THE TIME RANGE IN THE TAFS WITH A 4 HOUR
WINDOW THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITHIN THE THUNDERSTORMS...A PERIOD
OF IFR/MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS. ALONG WITH THESE ISSUES...A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE WHICH COULD CONTAIN WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. AVIATION CONCERNS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 02Z THIS
EVENING AS THUNDERSTORMS DEPART AND WEAKEN...AND WINDS SUBSIDE.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...KAS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW ORLEANS LA

140 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

.AVIATION...
A CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA WITH MOST MINIMUM CLOUD
DECKS AT AROUND 3KFT. THIS SHOULDN`T CHANGE MUCH THROUGHOUT THE
DAY BUT CONVECTION WILL INCREASE...MAINLY OVER THE NEW FEW HOURS.
COVERAGE SEEMS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE SUCH THAT VCTS WILL BE
APPROPRIATE RATHER THAN A TEMPO GROUP. MOST ACTIVITY WILL HAVE A
SLOW NE MOVEMENT. ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE BEYOND SUNSET.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AT LESS THAN 10 KTS.

MEFFER
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 800 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015/

..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW DAYS...A SURFACE TEMPERATURE
INVERSION WAS IN PLACE. SEVERAL LOCATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE
OBSERVED VISIBILITIES BEING REDUCED GENERALLY TO 3 TO 5 MILES DUE
TO A BIT OF MOISTURE IN THE INVERSION NEAR THE SURFACE. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE IS AROUND THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL FOR
EARLY JUNE OF 1.6 INCHES. WITH FORECAST HIGHS AROUND 90 DEGREES
AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...SURFACE HEATING AND MIXING WILL ERODE
THIS INVERSION.

WE ARE ALREADY SEEING A FEW ECHOS ON THE RADAR THIS MORNING. 11Z
HRRR HAS TRIED TO CAPTURED THIS AND IT ISN`T BAD IN ITS
REPRESENTATION. BASED ON THE HRRR AND A CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE OF
ONLY 84...WE SHOULD SEE MORE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED WITH A HIGH FREEZING LEVEL NEAR 16600 FEET AND A 500MB
TEMPERATURE AROUND -5C. DOWNDRAFT CAPE IS JUST ABOVE THE 950 J/KG
THRESHOLD SO STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE. MEAN WIND IN
THE 0-6KM LAYER IS 3 KNOTS SO COULD ALSO SEE SOME BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. WINDS IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE 10 KNOTS
OR LESS AND A PEAK WIND SPEED IN THE ATMOSPHERE OF 44 KNOTS WAS
LOCATED AT 35800 FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: THERE WERE NO ISSUES WITH THE FLIGHT THIS
MORNING. THE BALLOON ASCENDED TO A HEIGHT OF 20.5 MILES ABOVE THE
GROUND BEFORE BURSTING NEAR THE SOUTH END OF THE CAUSEWAY OVER
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN 28 MILES DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE. TOTAL TIME
OF THE BALLOON`S ASCENT WAS 106 MINUTES.

ANSORGE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
THIS MORNING...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER SOUTH TEXAS. RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AS WELL AS THE LOUISIANA COASTAL PARISHES. AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINES...TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S.

SHORT TERM...

NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO FORCE THE TEXAS UPPER RIDGE SOMEWHAT WESTWARD...BUT
THAT MOVEMENT IS SOMEWHAT RESTRICTED BY NOW TROPICAL STORM BLANCA
JUST OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH WILL
CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...REACHING PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY
INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. MOISTURE LEVELS BEGIN TO
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. PROBABLY A LITTLE BETTER AREAL COVERAGE
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...BUT STILL ONLY IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE. 08/00Z LIX SOUNDING HAD PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.5
INCHES...INCREASING TO 1.85 BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND REMAINING
IN THAT GENERAL VICINITY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH THE
BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND REMAINING IN THE
AREA...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION WILL
OCCUR FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING...ONCE THE
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IN THE MID 80S IS REACHED. CANNOT RULE OUT
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND SPC HAS THE ENTIRE AREA UNDER A
MARGINAL CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE MAIN THREAT DOWNBURST
WINDS.

WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO REACH THE LOWER 90S TODAY...THE
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO HOLD HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. 35

LONG TERM...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
FORECAST SCENARIO FOR THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN
HIGH AND AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH DAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK...A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A DOWNTURN IN
MOISTURE LEVELS AND RESULTANT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 85 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE IN MOST
AREAS UNTIL THE MOISTURE LEVELS DECREASE. 35

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. ISOLATED SHRA COULD BRIEFLY IMPACT A COASTAL AIRPORT OR TWO
EARLY THIS MORNING...SO MAY ADD A VICINITY SHRA TO A FEW TAFS BASED
ON RADAR TRENDS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THEN
TONIGHT AS WELL AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND AIRPORTS WITH A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF
OCCURRENCE PRECLUDES ADDING MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. 22/TD

MARINE...

WINDS WILL START TO BECOME PREVAILING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL START TO TAKE UP RESIDENCE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE EASTERN GULF COAST REGION.
WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH SEAS MOSTLY AROUND 1 FOOT.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RAMP UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS DUE TO
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND TENDENCY FOR LOWER
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND PLAINS REGION.
CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH OR EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. 22/TD

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 71 89 71 86 / 30 60 40 60
BTR 73 90 73 87 / 30 50 30 60
ASD 75 88 74 86 / 20 40 30 60
MSY 76 88 75 87 / 20 40 30 60
GPT 76 87 75 86 / 20 40 30 50
PQL 74 87 73 86 / 20 40 30 50

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LAKE CHARLES LA

1024 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

.UPDATE...
DISSIPATING ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN CREOLE AND
INTRACOASTAL CITY HAS LEFT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR BETWEEN LAKE CHARLES AND LAFAYETTE. THIS BOUNDARY
UNDOUBTLY WILL SETUP MORE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
INTERACT WITH THE SEA BREEZE WHICH IS FORESHADOWED BY THE HRRR
REFLECTIVTY FORECAST TO BE ENHANCED TODAY. ECMWF AND GFS GUIDANCE
ALSO APPEAR TO PICK UP ON THIS INCREASED ACTIVITY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. RUC SOUNDING FORECASTS ALONG WITH THIS MORNINGS LCH
SOUNDING SHOW PW`S AT 1.83" PRECIPITABLE WATER AND INCREASING TO
NEAR 2 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON IN AN AREA WHICH I HAVE UPDATED INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

REST OF THE PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD. TEMPERATURES ON TRACK TO HIT
FORECAST HIGHS. WILL SEND OUT UPDATED ZONE FOECAST PACKAGE FOR
SLIGHT INCREASE IN POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015/

DISCUSSION...
08/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO RIDGE OVER THE REGION...WITH SOME
LT PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPING ACRS THE AREA. FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO AS DAYTIME MIXING BEGINS. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TODAY WITH A FEW ISLTD SHRA DEVELOPING
THIS MORNING MAINLY NEAR LCH/LFT/ARA. SHRA/TSRA WILL BECOME A
LITTLE MORE SCT DURING THE AFTN AREAWIDE BUT COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED
TO WARRANT MORE THAN A VC MENTION AT THIS TIME. SWLY WINDS LESS
THAN 10 KT AND SCT CONVECTION TODAY WILL DIMINISH DURING THE
EVENING. 24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
CURRENT LOCATION OF THE WEATHER PLAYERS FOR THE NEXT WEEK LOOK
LIKE THIS. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AT THE UPPER LEVELS AND SURFACE IS
LOCATED FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
OLD MEXICO INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS. ALSO...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WITH
AN ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE IS STRETCHING FROM
THE UPPER PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN ROCKIES...MOVING TO THE
SOUTHEAST. FINALLY...BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER SATELLITE
DATA SHOWS POOLING OF VALUES BETWEEN 2 AND 2.4 INCHES OVER THE
WESTERN AND NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN.

DISCUSSION...
A FEW NOCTURNAL SHOWERS ARE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA COAST AND COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING HOURS. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO BE ON THE INCREASE AND AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE ON THE DECREASE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT
HAS BEEN THE MAIN PLAYER FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS...WILL SHIFT TO THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST AS UPPER LEVEL TROF FROM THE PLAINS CONTINUES
TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING THE SURFACE TROF NEAR
THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE WASHING OUT.
MEANWHILE...SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL KEEP DECENT
MOISTURE VALUES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. NORMAL JUNE PWAT VALUES
ARE AROUND 1.6 INCHES...AND THESE VALUES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
SHOULD BE NEAR OR EXCEED THIS VALUE.

THEREFORE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY FROM DAYTIME HEATING...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...WHERE LESS INFLUENCE OF
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE NOTED...AND SURFACE SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO BE AT ITS BEST.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE UPPED TO CHANCE FOR TUESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA...AND HIGH END CHANCE FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...AS THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL LEAVE A WEAKNESS
IN THE UPPER LEVELS OVER THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE FROM THE ATLANTIC AND THE ONE OVER OLD MEXICO TO PROVIDE
LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. ALSO...THE LEFT OVER SURFACE
BOUNDARY MAY ALSO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION...ALONG WITH THE
SEA BREEZE AND MESO SCALE OUTFLOWS. BEST CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY ON
THESE DAYS WILL BE IN THE LATE MORNING TO AFTERNOON...WITH
ACTIVITY DURING THE NIGHT SHIFTING TO NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE.

FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...A SURFACE TROF WILL
FORM ACROSS THE EASTERN ROCKIES AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
HELP INCREASE THE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF. THE STRONGER
AND DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE...WILL ALLOW A CONNECTION TO TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN...WITH PWAT VALUES OVER 2 INCHES SURGING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL CAUSE A LIKELIHOOD OF ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL HAVE TO
BE WATCHED CLOSELY...AS WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF CONVECTION...HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BECOME AN ISSUE.

RUA

MARINE...
MAINLY LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY STALLS AND WASHES OUT OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND...AS LOWER PRESSURES WILL BE FOUND OVER THE
EASTERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...HELPING TO INCREASE THE
GRADIENT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS COULD BE MET BY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES
AS GULF MOISTURE...THEN TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE REGION.

RUA

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 93 72 91 72 / 30 20 50 30
LCH 92 75 91 74 / 40 10 40 30
LFT 92 74 90 73 / 40 20 50 30
BPT 93 74 92 73 / 30 10 40 20

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

PUBLIC...06

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW ORLEANS LA

800 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

ANSORGE

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

SHORT TERM...

LONG TERM...

AVIATION...

MARINE...

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 91 71 89 71 / 30 30 60 40
BTR 92 73 90 73 / 30 30 50 30
ASD 91 75 88 74 / 30 20 40 30
MSY 90 76 88 75 / 30 20 40 30
GPT 90 76 87 75 / 30 20 40 30
PQL 90 74 87 73 / 30 20 40 30

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

928 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 928 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015

...SEVERE TS THREAT FOR UPR MI SEEMS TO BE DIMINISHING...

LTG ASSOCIATED WITH CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/TS OVER NE MN MOVING QUICKLY
INFO FAR NW LK SUP REMAINS RATHER LIMITED. RAP/SPC ANALYSIS
INDICATES MUCAPE IS LIMITED OVER WRN LK SUP/UPR MI...NO MORE THAN
250-500 J/KG. RESPONSIBLE FACTORS INCLUDE WARM MID LVL TEMPS/INVRN
ARND H6 SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB AND LIMITED MSTR INFLOW INTO THE
AREA. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WL NOT BE FAVORABLE AS WELL. AS A
RESULT...SPC HAS DOWNGRADED THE SVR TS RISK FOR UPR MI TO MARGINAL.
HOWEVER...DEEP 0-6KM WIND SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE...AS HI AS 40 TO
45 KTS. WITH WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE/HI DCAPE AOA 1000 J/KG ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE WI BORDER...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VERY GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY
STRONGER CELLS THAT MOVE INTO UPR MI. BUT THE OVERALL SVR THREAT
APPEARS TO BE MORE LIMITED THAN EARLIER EXPECTED.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015

A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVER NWRN ONTARIO WILL MOVE
ACROSS NRN ONTARIO TONIGHT AND WED. A SECOND SHORTWAVE OVER THE
MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER WILL DIVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AT
THE SAME TIME THAT A SFC FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

PRECIP DEVELOPED OVER MN AND FAR NWRN WI THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...BUT DISSIPATED BEFORE IT MOVED WEST INTO THE CWA. IT
APPEARS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS TOO LOW AND CIN TOO HIGH FOR
MEANINGFUL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITHOUT MORE SIGNIFICANT FORCING.
THAT FORCING IS EXPECTED TO BE MET AS THE SHORTWAVE AND FRONT MOVE
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW MLCAPES
DECREASING WITH A LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT
THEN INCREASING TO 700-1200J/KG OVER THE WRN HALF OF UPPER MI AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES IN. MODELS ALSO SHOW DCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF
1000J/KG OVER THE WRN HALF. THE SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO INCREASE THE
SHEAR...WITH STRONG 0-1KM BULK SHEAR OF 25-35KTS AND BOTH 0-3KM AND
0-6KM SHEAR OF 40-50KTS. CONDITIONS APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS AND GOOD COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OR TWO MOVING THROUGH (OR AT LEAST ALONG THE
EDGES) OF THE CWA. WHILE THE FORECAST IS EXTREMELY DEPENDENT ON
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND PROPAGATION...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS OF
THE HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE /ESPECIALLY THE HRRR AND NAM-DNG)...AND
EVEN THE LOWER-RES GFS AND ECMWF...SEEM TO BE ON A REASONABLE TRACK
OF SHOWING A CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING OVER FAR NRN LAKE SUPERIOR
(CLOSER TO THE MAIN SHORTWAVE) AND ANOTHER MOVING ESE THROUGH THE
U.P. PARALLEL TO THE CAPE GRADIENT. CONSIDERING EXPECTED STORM MODE
BEING A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AND AFOREMENTIONED INGREDIENTS...THINK
THAT DAMAGING WIND IS THE GREATEST THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE
STORMS...WITH THE SECONDARY THREAT GIVEN SHEAR AND INSTABILITY AND
MAYBE A WEAK TORNADO IF ANY FAVORABLE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR.
AGAIN...THE SEVERE THREAT IS VERY CONDITIONAL ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND
EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION. ANY CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES SHOULD BE
DECAYING AS THEY MOVE TO THE E...SHOULD SEVERE THREAT IS LOWER OVER
THE ERN U.P.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE W ON WED WILL LEAD TO CLEARING
CONDITIONS...WITH HIGHS IN HE 60S AND 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015

FOG OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE ON THE DIMINISHING TREND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS THE SFC LOW ACROSS W QUEBEC EXITS E AND THE SFC TROUGH
EXTENDING W THROUGH N LAKE SUPERIOR AT 00Z THURSDAY SLOWLY EDGES E.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

MEANWHILE...THE SFC LOW OVER KS AT 12Z THURSDAY WILL PUSH TO THE S
WI/IN BORDER AT 18Z FRIDAY. THICK CLOUDS WILL PUSH OVER THE
AREA...HELPING TO KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING MUCH PAST THE MID TO UPPER
60S /WITH EVEN SOME 50S RIGHT FROM THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA
E THROUGH WHITEFISH POINT/. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY RAIN OVER
S CENTRAL UPPER MI DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...AT SOME POINT BETWEEN 09-
20Z. LOWER CONFIDENCE REMAINS...AS THE MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY BETWEEN
NO PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA /12Z NAM/ TO THE ECMWF AND GFS WHICH HAVE
OVER AN INCH OVER FAR S CENTRAL UPPER MI NEAR MNM. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A MODEL BLENDED SOLUTION...WITH OVER HALF AN INCH OF RAIN
POSSIBLE S OF A LINE FROM IMT TO ESC...AND OVER 1IN NEAR MNM. WITH
DRIER E WINDS AT THE SFC MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND FAR N UPPER MI
WILL REMAIN EITHER DRY OR WITH A WHOLE LOT LESS PRECIP. EXPECT A
QUICK CUT OFF AS THE SFC LOW ELONGATES ACROSS LOWER MI AND THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE 500MB
RIDGE OVER THE MID MS VALLEY WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT...AND LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY.

EXPECT INCREASED SW FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF THE 500MB LOW OVER S
CENTRAL CANADA SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...AS THE LOW SHIFTS NE INTO
HUDSON BAY MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT IT WILL MAINLY MEAN ZONAL FLOW. WHILE
THE CANADIAN IS MORE TO THE S AND QUICKER TO BRING THE SFC
LOW/TROUGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE SLOWER
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS LOOK MORE REASONABLE. WILL KEEP THE CWA RAIN
FREE UNTIL THE DAYTIME HOURS SUNDAY. TS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE 12Z GFS LOOKS TO HAVE SHIFTED THE BEST
MOISTURE/STRONG THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TO OUR S.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 722 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015

MAIN HAZARD DURING THE TAF PERIOD IS WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO UPR MI TNGT. A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE EXPECTED TIMING...COVERAGE AND SEVERITY OF
ANY TS. BEST GUESS IS THAT TS WILL IMPACT KIWD AND KCMX FOR A COUPLE
HRS THIS EVNG AND AT SAW BEGINNING NEAR MIDNGT. A FEW TS MAY TURN
SEVERE...WITH GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. FOLLOWING THE COLD FROPA
IN THE EARLY MRNGS HRS AT SAW...A STEADY WNW WIND WL TURN GUSTY WITH
DAYTIME HEATING ON WED. BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES AND ALLOWS FOR VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE ON WED...SOME UPSLOPE LO CLDS/MVFR
CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AT IWD AND ESPECIALLY CMX.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

WINDS WILL REMAIN 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOG
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LAKE INTO WED AS A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS
MOVES OVER THE COLD GREAT LAKES WATER AND REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...TITUS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

752 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 750 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015

HAVE TENDED TO SLOW DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE HIER POPS/TS A BIT TO
ACCOUNT FOR SLOWER EWD PROGRESS OF AXIS OF GREATER INSTABILITY IN MN
AND PERSISTENCE OF DRY AIR/HIER CIN AS SHOWN BY LATEST RAP/SPC
GUIDANCE OVER UPR MI. EXPECT SCT SHRA/TS INTENSIFYING IN NE MN TO
SWEEP ESEWD INTO WRN UPR MI BY LATE EVNG AS SHOWN BY MANY HI RES
MODELS. CLUSTER OF SCT TS SHOULD THEN ACCELERATE WITH TIME UNDER
STRONG WNW FLOW ALOFT. QUESTIONS ON MSTR INFLOW INTO THE CONVECTION
WL BE THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR ON TS COVERAGE/INTENSITY DESPITE
FAIRLY SHARP DYNAMIC FORCING. GIVEN WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE AND FCST
HI DCAPE...EXPECT DAMAGING WINDS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE W ON WED WILL LEAD TO CLEARING
CONDITIONS...WITH HIGHS IN HE 60S AND 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 722 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...TITUS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

722 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE W ON WED WILL LEAD TO CLEARING
CONDITIONS...WITH HIGHS IN HE 60S AND 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 722 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...TITUS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

133 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM
THE PAC NW INTO SRN BC/ALBERTA WITH A DOWNSTREAM FROM NRN ONTARIO
INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO NW WI SUPPORTED MID CLOUDS AND SOME ISOLD -SHRA/SPRINKLES.
AN UPSTREAM SHRTWV WITH SOME DIMINISHING SHRA/TSRA EXTENDED FROM SRN
MANITOBA INTO NW MN. OTHERWISE...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
PREVAILED OVER UPPER MI WITH AREAS OF FOG/STRATUS OVER THE EAST.

TODAY...EXPECT SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE TO INCREASE BY LATE MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE WITH 700-300 MB QVECTOR
CONV APPROACHES AND DAYTIME HEATING PUSHES MLCAPE VALUES INTO THE
400-800 J/KG RANGE. EXPECT THE GREATEST PCPN COVERAGE ALONG AND
INLAND FROM LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES THAT WILL SAG INTO SRN UPPER MI
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH PREVAILING NW LOW LEVEL FLOW. ALTHOUGH
FCST 0-6KM SHEAR IS ONLY NEAR 20 KNOTS AND INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL...RELATIVELY LOW WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FROM 8K-9K FT WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR TS WITH SMALL HAIL.

TONIGHT...ANY ONGOING SHRA/TSRA WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND AS THE SUPPORTING SHRTWV EXITS TO THE
EAST. WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED MUCH OF THIS WEEK. QUIET PERIOD WILL
BE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTN INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. HEAVY RAIN COULD OCCUR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...THOUGH THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT IF MOST OF THE RAIN
AFFECTS UPR MICHIGAN OR REMAINS TO THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
WEATHER SETTLES OVER FOR NEXT SATURDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING
NEXT SUNDAY AS SFC TROUGH APPROACHES.

SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS PRESENT FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA DROPS ACROSS NW ONTARIO LATE TUESDAY
AFTN. DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON NOSE
OF H25 JET SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA COMBINE
TO INCREASE LIFT OVER UPR MICHIGAN IN THE AFTN. DESPITE TEMPS
PUSHING INTO THE 80S OVER WEST HALF TUE AFTN...INSTABILITY REMAINS
MINIMIZED THROUGH MID AFTN DUE TO H7-H6 CAPPING. SHRA AND TSRA MAY
TRY TO FORM IN THE AFTN ON LAKE BREEZES OF WEST AND NCNTRL CWA. DUE
TO MINIMAL INSTABILITY AT LEAST TO START THE AFTN...COVERAGE SHOULD
BE ISOLD AND SEVERE POTENTIAL IS MINIMAL. EXPECT BETTER SHRA/TSRA
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATE IN THE AFTN AS SHORTWAVE DRAWS CLOSER
AND MLCAPES INCREASE OVER WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN. WINDS ALOFT AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW REACHING NW ONTARIO TO NORTHERN MN
BY 00Z WED INCREASE SHARPLY. RESULT IS 0-6KM SHEAR 45-50 KTS BY 00Z
WITH 0-1KM SHEAR OVER 20 KTS. LIFT AND SHEAR ARE CERTAINLY THERE.
SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL ON TUESDAY AFTN COMES DOWN TO EXTENT OF
INSTABILITY. GFS/NAM SHOW MLCAPES OVER WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN 750-
1000J/KG WHILE ECMWF AND GEM-NH KEEP THOSE HIGHER CAPE VALUES MORE
OVER MN AND NW WI. GIVEN H85-H3 WINDS...MEAN STORM MOTION OF NW-SE
WOULD KEEP STRONGER STORMS ONLY OVER WEST CWA OR MAYBE SW OF CWA.
OVERALL...ISOLD STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN ON TUESDAY...WITH
MAIN SEVERE POTENTIAL FAR WEST CWA...CLOSER TO SPC DAY2 SLIGHT RISK.

STILL APPEARS THAT COMPLEX OF TSRA WILL ROLL WNW-ESE ACROSS LK
SUPERIOR AND/OR UPR MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY EVENING. COULD BE ADDITIONAL
COMPLEXES ELSEWHERE IN THE REGION AS WELL. NAM/GEM-NH FARTHER NORTH
WITH NORTHERN GRADIENT OF MUCAPE TO 3KM OVER 1000J/KG WHILE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE MORE SOUTH. GIVEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER 50 KTS...SEEMS
THAT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY EVENING AS THE
TSRA MOVE THROUGH. 0-1KM SHEAR INCREASING WELL OVER 20 KTS INDICATES
THAT COMPLEX WOULD BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN AS IT TRACKS EAST...LIKELY ON
THE NOSE OF THE STRONGEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT. DECENT AGREEMENT THAT
ALL THE SHRA/TSRA WILL ESSENTIALLY BE OUT OF THE CWA AFT 06Z ON WED.

NAM/SREF POINT TO WEAK DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG A WEAK LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY AFTN. LIMITING FACTORS ARE GFS SHOWING
MORE MIXED/DRIER PROFILE THROUGH H7 AND WELL AGREED UPON LARGE SCALE
Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE BY ALL THE MODELS. PUT SMALL CHANCES IN FOR
NCNTRL AND EASTERN CWA...BUT NO TSRA AS THINK WOULD ONLY SEE SHALLOW
CU/TCU AND A FEW SHRA AS EVEN NAM SHOWS CAPPING LAYER H7-H5. MAY BE
BREEZY FOR A TIME IN THE MORNING CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR AS MIXED
LAYER WINDS JUST OFF SFC INCREASE OVER 20 KTS. WARMEST TEMPS ON WED
AFTN OVER FAR SCNTRL CWA WHERE LINGERING WARM AIR AT H85 COMBINES
WITH STIFF DOWNSLOPE WINDS. KMNM MAY REACH LOW-MID 80S. TEMPS
ELSEWHERE IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S...COOLEST NEAR LK SUPERIOR.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING QUIET PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. ATTN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IS ON LOW PRESSURE AND
WARM FRONT LIFTING FM THE PLAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING IN HOW FAR NORTH TO BRING WARM FRONT BOTH AT THE SFC AND
ALSO AT H85-H7. ATTM...APPEARS MAIN H85-H7 FRONTS WILL BE JUST SOUTH
OF UPR MICHIGAN SO BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN LIKELY WILL BE OVER
SOUTHERN UPR MICHIGAN. POSSIBLE THAT KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND PARTS OF
NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN MAY NOT SEE MUCH RAIN AT ALL. RIGHT ENTRANCE JET
FORCING WILL ACT TO OFFSET THIS SOME...BUT WITHOUT MUCH INSTABILITY
FARTHER NORTH AS WELL...THINK THERE WILL BE SHARP GRADIENT FM
POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN TO NOT MUCH RAIN AT ALL. AFTER BRIEF VISIT BY
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SOUTH FLOW
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BRING SHRA/TSRA BACK TO CWA FM
WEST TO EAST NEXT SUNDAY.

AFTER WARM AND HUMID DAY ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE AND SFC
TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH ON TUESDAY NIGHT...REST OF WEEK SHOULD SEE
TEMPS AROUND NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. COOLEST DAY OF THE
BUNCH WILL PROBABLY BE FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
WIDEPSPREAD RAIN AFFECTING SOUTHERN UPR MICHIGAN AND EASTERLY WINDS
OFF THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTH OF WARM FRONT. TEMPS WILL REBOUND
FOR THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS AWAY FM THE GREAT LAKES IN THE 70S.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON AT CMX AND SAW AS
HEATING RAISES THE CEILING TO VFR FROM MVFR. INSTABILITY AND LAKE
BREEZE SHOWERS SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF KSAW THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE SITE. COULD BE SOME FOG FOR
CMX LATER TONIGHT AND PUT MVFR CIGS IN THERE. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL
SITES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

WEST WINDS MAY INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KNOTS WED AS A LOW PRESSURE
PASSES NORTH OF THE LAKE. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL REMAIN 20 KNOTS OR
LESS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LAKE
INTO WED AS A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

733 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 732 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MVFR CIGS
EARLY TODAY AT CMX. DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW STEADY IMPROVEMENT
THROUGH THE DAY...BUT THE ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN
CONCERT WITH THE SURFACE HEATING WILL RESULT IN INSTABILITY SHRA
WHICH WILL BE MOST LIKELY AT IWD AND SAW. THERE COULD ALSO BE A TS
MAINLY AT THESE TWO SITES...BUT CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION/TIMING IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAF ATTM. SOME DRYING IN THE WAKE OF
THIS DISTURBANCE IS LIKELY TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO ALL THE TAF
SITES BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

520 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

MORE AGGRESSIVE DRYING ABOVE SHALLOW NEAR SFC MSTR IN THE PRESENCE
OF NOCTURNAL COOLING INDICATES FOG/IFR AND PERHAPS LIFR CONDITIONS
WL IMPACT THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS MRNG. SOME UPSLOPE LO CLDS MAY
IMPACT CMX AS WELL. DAYTIME HEATING ON MON WL ALLOW STEADY
IMPROVEMENT THRU THE DAY...BUT ARRIVAL OF UPR DISTURBANCE IN CONCERT
WITH THE SURFACE HEATING WL RESULT IN INSTABILITY -SHRA...WHICH WL
BE MOST LIKELY AT IWD AND SAW. THERE COULD ALSO BE A TS MAINLY AT
THESE TWO SITES...BUT CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION/TIMING IS TOO LO TO
INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAF ATTM. SOME DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THIS
DISTURBANCE IS LIKELY TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO ALL THE TAF SITES
BY LATE IN THE AFTN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

456 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1029 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015

LIGHT WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH MON MORNING
AS A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED FORMAT

NWS JACKSON MS

810 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015

.UPDATE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE DISSIPATING ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA WHERE A SOME STORMS
ARE MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE CWA BOARDER. HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
EXPECT THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT TO BE MOSTLY RAIN FREE...BUT CANT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
UPDATED THE WX/POPS...BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK./15/

.DISCUSSION...

LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION IN THE NEAR TERM WITH DRIER MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR NOW
MOVING INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS. VERY WARM AND HUMID
AIR CONTINUES IN THE LOWER LEVELS...AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS MANAGED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE
APPROACHING 4000 J/KG OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS IN
PRECIPITABLE WATER AIRMASS AROUND 1.7 INCHES. THERE IS SUFFICIENT LOW
LEVEL FLOW TO HELP STORMS ORGANIZE A ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND
UPDRAFTS ARE OCCASIONALLY PULSING UP TO NEAR SEVERE INTENSITY.
MOREOVER...NEARLY OPPOSED PROPAGATION AND CELL MOTIONS ARE RESULTING
IN SLOW STORM MOVEMENT AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL. OVER
EASTERN MS...THE AIRMASS WAS DEPLETED BY OVERNIGHT EARLY MORNING TSTM
COMPLEX...BUT HAS SINCE RECOVERED ENOUGH TO SUPPORT NON-SEVERE TSTM
REDEVELOPMENT. THE HRRR HAD BEEN PRETTY INSISTENT ON MOVING THE
CONVECTIVE RAINFALL BACK INTO THE PINE BELT REGION AS WE GO INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...BUT GIVEN HWO MUCH STABILIZATION TOOK PLACE THIS
MORNING...IT SEEMS UNLIKELY TO HAPPEN AND HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS A
LITTLE. GOING THROUGH THE LATE EVENING...EXPECT CONVECTION TO
DIMINISH WITH COOLING. PATCHY AREAS OF FOG COULD DEVELOP IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS FOR
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE RAINFALL TO BE MOST CONCENTRATED OVER SOUTH/EAST
CENTRAL MS WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED. THE GFS INDICATES
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE COINCIDING WITH INSTABILITY AXIS IN THAT
REGION AS WELL THAT WOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS.
THE GFS FORECASTS VERTICAL TOTALS TO APPROACH 27 SUGGESTING THAT A
FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS FROM AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. EXPECT STORMS TO DIMINISH WITH SUNSET
WEDNESDAY EVENING. /EC/

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE IN
PLACE AS PW VALUES WILL BE NEAR 2 INCHES. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THE MOIST FEED WITH LOW TO MID 70S DEWPOINTS. MID LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN WILL BE LIGHT AND DISORGANIZED WITH A WEAK LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.

WITH THIS SETUP EXPECT A GREATER THAN NORMAL COVERAGE OF DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF
THIS TIME PERIOD. INCREASED MOISTURE/RAINFALL WILL ALSO MAKE FOR
NARROW DIURNAL TEMP RANGES WITH MINS IN THE LOWER 70S AND HIGHS NEAR
90 AND AN OVERALL VERY MUGGY FEEL TO THE AIR. WEAK STEERING ALOFT
WILL ALLOW FOR SLOW STORM MOVEMENTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

BY LATE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...INCREASED RIDGING FROM THE EAST WILL
BEGIN DRYING/WARMING THE COLUMN. THUS...EXPECT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
TO BEGIN LESSENING IN THE EAST AND MAX TEMPS TO BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER. /26/

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MAIN
CONCERN SCT TSRA THAT HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN 1/2 OF MS
INTO NE LA AND SE AR. CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE OVER THIS
AREA BEHIND MORNING MCS THAT MOVED S ACROSS AREA...AND ARE FAVORABLE
FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH MORE INTENSE STORMS. THINKING RIGHT NOW IS
THAT MOST STORMS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY W AND S OF TAF SITES SO HAVE
JUST WENT VCTS AT KHKS AND KJAN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR/SAT
TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION OF CONDITIONAL TSRA AS NEEDED.
OTHERWISE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND ONLY OTHER
CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME BR LATER TONIGHT AND FIRST THING WED
AM...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED RAIN IN LAST 24 HOURS.
BIGGEST CONCERN IS OVER SE AND HAVE WENT WITH A PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS AT KHBG. /AEG/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 70 89 69 87 / 35 40 19 48
MERIDIAN 68 88 68 86 / 30 42 23 49
VICKSBURG 70 90 70 88 / 44 35 15 40
HATTIESBURG 69 88 70 86 / 30 53 30 56
NATCHEZ 70 88 70 87 / 34 43 22 47
GREENVILLE 71 92 73 89 / 16 17 10 29
GREENWOOD 70 90 71 87 / 17 23 11 36

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

EC/26/AEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS ST LOUIS MO

911 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 909 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2015

Have pushed off slight chance of isolated thunderstorms over
northeast Missouri and west central Illinois to well after
midnight. This is when the latest runs of the RAP shows some
moisture convergence developing in the 925-850mb layer about the
same time a weak shortwave will move southeastward out of the
upper Midwest. Otherwise going forecast looks good as the winds
have turned light out of the south under mainly clear skies. Going
lows are close to current dewpoints.

Britt

.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2015

Secondary cold front will continue to progress southeast this
evening with wind becoming northwest in its wake. Line of showers
and thunderstorms aligned with the front will weaken throughout the
evening with loss of daytime heating. Temperatures will be cooler
tonight with lows generally in the 60s.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2015

(Wednesday - Thursday)

Still looking like a reasonable chance for "sunrise surprise"
convection with the mid-level WAA field ahead of the front Wednesday
morning and have kept in the slight chance PoPs over northeast MO
and west-central IL. What does develop will try to push slowly
south but should also dissipate by late morning.

For the rest of the day should then see plenty of sunshine, a
moderate SW surface flow, and a decent cap in place. This should
allow temps to easily surge into the low-mid 90s areawide with some
upper 90s possible in the urban heat island of STL city, likely
giving us our new warmest day of the year. RHs are not anticipated
to be high enough to eclipse the 100F mark on heat index values, but
will be close.

Very high CAPE (> 5000 J/kg) will also develop across northeast MO
and west-central IL immediately ahead of a west-east cold front that
is expected to settle near the MO-IA border by late in the day. At
this point, it appears the cap will weaken sufficiently and the
front will provide enough focus by 00z/Thu that it should be able to
ignite TSRAs by then. What does develop will have sufficient
instability to have the ability to go severe. Bulk shear is weak,
however, at 10kts or less, so pulse storms are anticipated for
convective mode. This will continue into the evening.

A new MCS is expected to develop well to the west during the evening
and then track eastward and should remain to our north, with
maintenance of a low PoP seeming reasonable.

This overall theme is expected to continue into Thursday but with
possibility of convective outflow and debris clouds messing things
up, confidence on PoP and max temp forecast is reduced versus
Wednesday. Trimmed temps a bit from persistence with largest
reductions in the north and minimal for areas near I-70 and south.

(Friday - Next Tuesday)

For the weekend and into early next week, we will see a RIDGE anchor
over the southeastern CONUS, with resultant SW flow, plenty of
moisture thru the column, and regular intrusions of upper level
disturbances and lingering frontal boundaries to warrant above climo
PoPs thru this period. Looks very active, especially in our
northern forecast area, but hard to believe that it won`t trend
southward with time if enough activity gets going.

Temps should be at least seasonal normals, but suspect most days
will be above.

TES

.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 629 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2015

Expect dry and VFR conditions through the evening hours as area
will remain under the influence of high pressure over southern
Missouri. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms late tonight
into early Wednesday over northeast MO and west central IL as a
cold front moves southeast. However, chances will not be great
enough to include in the TAF at KUIN at this time. This front will
will become stationary just north of KUIN and additional
thunderstorms may develop along it again on Wednesday afternoon,
but chances again are not high enough to warrant including them in
the TAF. Otherwise, TAFs only reflect wind shifts and development
of cumulus tomorrow morning.

Specifics for KSTL: Expect dry and VFR conditions with winds
shifting from southwest to south and back.

Britt

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS BILLINGS MT

850 PM MDT TUE JUN 9 2015

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ALONG THE
MUSSELSHELL RIVER. CURRENT POPS LOOK GOOD BASED ON THE LATEST
TRENDS IN THE HRRR AND RADAR. TEMPERATURES ARE TRACKING WELL WITH
THE FORECAST TRENDS...SO NO CHANGES NEEDED. REIMER

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

RIDGING ALOFT WILL FLATTEN THE NEXT 36 HOURS...LEADING TO COOLER
HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S F WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND
THE RISK OF A FEW STRONG STORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

TONIGHT...AS OF MID AFTERNOON ISOLATED AND SLOW-MOVING CONVECTION
IS FORMING OVER AREA MOUNTAINS...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT BACK
TO THE WEST INTO SOUTHWESTERN MT AND CENTRAL ID ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK...RIDGE-CRASHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WE EXPECT THIS ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING AND SPREAD EASTWARD...EVENTUALLY REACHING SOUTHEASTERN MT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODEST MLCAPE AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTS SOME
RISK OF STRONG STORMS...MAINLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MT /ESPECIALLY
FROM HARLOWTON TOWARD ROUNDUP WHERE 0-6-KM SHEAR WILL BE NEAR 40
KT/ BEFORE 06 UTC...WHICH IS WHEN AND WHERE STORMS WILL STILL BE
SURFACE-BASED.

WEDNESDAY...EARLY-DAY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS REMAIN LIKELY
IN SOUTHEASTERN MT WITH LOW- TO MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION...BUT
WE DO NEED TO NOTE THAT CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE IS A
LOT LESS ROBUST WITH THAT ACTIVITY THAN PARAMETERIZED MODELS LIKE
THE 12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF. IF THE FORMER GUIDANCE IS CORRECT THEN
OUR POPS MAY BE TOO HIGH OVER SOUTHEASTERN MT WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE FOCUS FOR STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AROUND A LEE TROUGH/WIND SHIFT LOCATED IN
SOUTHEASTERN MT AND NORTH CENTRAL WY...WHERE MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO
1500 J/KG WILL COINCIDE WITH 0-6-KM BULK SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KT
/HIGHEST NEAR MILES CITY/. OTHER STORMS ARE LIKELY AROUND THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT SHEAR WILL BE TOO WEAK FOR MUCH ORGANIZATION WEST
OF THE LEE TROUGH. ANY STORMS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN THOUGH
AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WHERE STORMS ARE MOST
INTENSE AND LONG-LIVED ALONG THE LEE TROUGH. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
MAY BE NEEDED EVENTUALLY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN MT AND NORTH
CENTRAL WY...BUT GIVEN SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH AND LINGERING UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE WIDTH AND
LOCATION OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS /WHICH WILL DEPEND ON EARLY-DAY
CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION/...WE HELD OFF ON ISSUING ONE JUST YET.

BY THURSDAY...A DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN ALOFT AND 500-MB HEIGHTS
WILL START RISING BY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE LEFT A LOW-END
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM IN THE FORECAST DURING THE DAY OUT OF
RESPECT TO WEAK INSTABILITY SHOWN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

FINALLY...WHERE HYDROLOGY IS CONCERNED...WE CANCELLED THE PRIOR
FLOOD WARNINGS FOR THE TONGUE RIVER AT BIRNEY WHERE THE RIVER IS
FALLING...AND AT BIG TIMBER WHERE THE BOULDER RIVER IS CLOSE...
BUT LIKELY JUST UNDER FLOOD STAGE. LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS AND
PUBLIC REPORTS FROM THE BIG TIMBER AREA INDICATED MINIMAL IMPACT
FROM THE HIGH WATER...SO WE FELT IT BEST TO CANCEL THE WARNING
THERE. SCHULTZ

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

THE NAEFS TABLE SHOWED A GENERAL LOWERING OF THE PRECIPITABLE
WATERS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH VALUES ON THE ORDER OF
/0.5/ TO /0.75/ INCHES. SO THE GENERAL THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE LOWER THAN IT HAS BEEN RECENTLY. ALSO NOTED THAT THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLES SHOWED CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PATTERN THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

TAKING THE ABOVE INTO ACCOUNT...THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON FRI IN BRINGING A COLD FRONT SE INTO THE REGION
AHEAD OF A PACIFIC LOW OVER SW CANADA. THERE WAS POOR AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE MOVEMENT OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE IN THE BASE OF THE
LOW...WHICH CAUSED THE MODELS TO HAVE POOR QPF AGREEMENT FRI
THROUGH SAT. ALSO THE FRONT WASHES OUT ON THE ECMWF SAT NIGHT BUT
REMAINS STATIONARY OVER SE MT ON THE GFS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
APPEARED CONFINED TO OVER AND NEAR THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN FRI
AFTERNOON. CHANCES SPREAD E FRI NIGHT WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE
COLD FRONT. WENT WITH LOW CHANCES OVER PARTS OF THE AREA SAT AND
SAT NIGHT USING A BLEND OF CONSALL AND CONSMOS. NOTED THAT GFS
SURFACE CAPES WERE BELOW 1000 J/KG FRI AND SAT SO SEVERE WEATHER
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

BOTH MODELS BROUGHT THE LOW EASTWARD...N OF THE MT/CANADA
BORDER...ON SUN. BRIEF UPPER RIDGING WAS THEN FOLLOWED BY SW FLOW
MON AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC LOW. MODELS WERE DRIER FOR
SUN...THEN QPF DISAGREEMENTS BEGAN AGAIN ON SUN NIGHT WITH A
WETTER GFS.

QPF INCREASED ON BOTH MODELS ON MON WITH THE ADVENT OF SW FLOW
ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. BEGAN INCREASING
POPS MON AFTERNOON AND HAD HIGHER SCATTERED POPS MON NIGHT WHEN
THE MODELS BROUGHT A SURFACE LOW N INTO THE VICINITY OF SE MT. TUE
FEATURED SW FLOW ON THE GFS AND ZONAL FLOW ON THE ECMWF. STAYED
WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR POPS DUE TO QPF DIFFERENCES.

700 MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN +8 AND +12 DEGREES C WILL MAKE FOR A
WARM DAY ON FRI. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE SEASONABLE ON SAT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH
THE REST OF THE PERIOD. ARTHUR
&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
THESE STORMS WILL PRIMARILY IMPACT BILLINGS AND MILES CITY...AND
MAY PRODUCE GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS AND BRIEF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
REIMER

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 063/082 056/078 055/085 058/079 053/078 055/077 055/077
34/T 42/T 11/U 22/T 22/T 23/T 32/T
LVM 058/080 050/081 051/084 050/078 047/077 048/073 049/076
56/T 52/T 12/T 32/T 23/T 23/T 32/T
HDN 063/084 057/079 053/087 058/081 054/081 055/080 056/079
36/T 52/T 11/U 22/T 22/T 22/T 42/T
MLS 064/081 057/078 055/085 058/080 055/079 054/077 055/075
65/T 62/T 11/U 21/B 22/T 22/T 43/T
4BQ 062/081 058/074 052/082 057/080 055/079 055/078 056/075
46/T 73/T 10/U 11/B 22/T 33/T 43/T
BHK 058/074 054/073 051/080 054/079 052/076 051/075 053/071
46/T 63/T 10/U 12/T 22/T 22/T 44/T
SHR 056/079 053/073 048/079 052/077 050/077 051/076 053/076
26/T 64/T 11/U 12/T 22/T 33/T 32/T

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GLASGOW MT

236 PM MDT MON JUN 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP... SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. THE TOP OF THIS RIDGE RUNS INTO
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE RESIDES IN
THE FLOW AROUND THIS RIDGE AND IS CURRENTLY EXITING THE FRONT RANGE
OF ALBERTA.

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT... THE SHORTWAVE UP NORTH WILL
LATCH ONTO A LEE MOUNTAIN TROUGH OVER THE ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN
BORDER AND PUSH IT FORWARD AS A COLD FRONT. THIS WILL SPIKE
TEMPERATURES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOLLOWED BY
THE FRONTS PASSAGE THROUGH THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT. WHILE MOST
MODELS REMAIN DRY A FEW INCLUDING THE HRRR AND CMC REGIONAL
GENERATE ISOLATED STORMS ON THIS TROUGH/FRONT OVER HILL AND
BLAINE COUNTY AND MOVE THROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES
OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT CAPE ABOVE 500 MB TO
SUSTAIN CONVECTION. HOWEVER... THEY ALSO SHOW A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIALLY
THICK YET WEAK LAYER OF INVERSION FROM 700 TO 500 MB THAT MUST
FIRST BE OVERPOWERED TO INITIATE THE CONVECTION. THE TROUGHS
PASSAGE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH OF A PERTURBANCE TO DO THIS. THEREFORE
HAVE BUMPED POPS UP FROM NOTHING TO SLIGHT CHANCE.

TUESDAY... THE COLD FRONT HAVING MOVED THROUGH THE AREA WILL
STABILIZE OUT THE SURFACE LAYER. BUT THIS NEW AIRMASS WILL ALSO
RAPIDLY SHRUG OFF TO THE EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS. SHOULD BE DRY AND
PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR. MEANWHILE... WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT... THE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL BE BLUNTED AND ZONAL FLOW WILL
OPEN UP A LANE THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA FOR NEW SHORTWAVES.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... A LEE MOUNTAIN TROUGH WILL SET
UP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND PACIFIC MOISTURE AND A SHORTWAVE
WILL OVERRUN IT ALLOWING RAIN SHOWERS TO EXPAND AND MOVE FROM THE
CENTRAL MONTANA MOUNTAINS INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL ACT TO MOISTEN A VERY DRY SURFACE LAYER.

SEVERE POSSIBLE... CONFIDENCE LOW... MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARDS
RAIN SHOWERS SHUTTING OFF AROUND MID DAY ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES AND
A CLEAR AIR DRY SLOT FORMING DUE TO A INCOMING JET. IF THIS DOES
OCCUR THEN THE SURFACE LAYER WILL BE ABLE TO WARM... AT WHICH POINT
BOTH CAPE AND SHEAR LOOK MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO FORM SEVERE
CELLS. HOWEVER THIS SCENARIO ENTIRELY HANGS ON A JET ENTERING AND A
CLEAR AIR OPENING BEING IN THE CORRECT TIME AND PLACE. MORE OFTEN
THAN NOT JETS ARE OFF IN TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL PLACEMENT THIS FAR
OUT IN THE MODELS... HENCE LOW CONFIDENCE.

GAH

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES WERE MADE AGAIN TODAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE
TIMING DIFFERENCES THAT QUITE CAN/T BE WORKED FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THE 12Z EC WANTS TO PUSH IT OUT OF THE CWA WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT
HANGING AROUND. EC SEEMS TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH OTHER MODELS SO
LOWERED POPS A BIT.

OTHERWISE...COULD GET INTERESTING AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AS CLOSED
UPPER LOW OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST SENDS A DISTURBANCE
NORTHEAST ACROSS MONTANA OVER AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH A TROF DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING SHORTWAVE SLIDING ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER ON THURSDAY...PHASING WITH A WAVE LIFTING OUT OF
THE GREAT BASIN...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING OFF THE
LEE TROF IN CENTRAL MONTANA.

WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS UPPER FLOW TURNS
SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF TROF IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG A COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE
STATE FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH MODELS DO HAVE SOME POSITIONAL
DIFFERENCES WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM WHICH COULD IMPACT THE EXTENT OF
THE STORMS.

THIS UPPER WAVE WINDS UP INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA
LATER IN THE WEEKEND...MAINTAINING COOLER AIRMASS OVER MONTANA FOR
SUNDAY. RIDGE BEGINS TO REBOUND TO THE WEST ON MONDAY WITH THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. EBERT

.AVIATION...
VFR.

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THERE
COULD BE A COUPLE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT GOOD ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. THEY MAY
CREATE LOCALIZED BRIEF GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS IN THEIR VICINITY.

OTHERWISE WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTH AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 KTS
TUESDAY. TFJ

.HYDROLOGY...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS MAY OR MAY NOT BRING A RISE IN CREEK LEVELS
IN PETROLEUM COUNTY LATER IN THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...THE FLATWILLOW
CREEK HAS HAD A SLOW DECREASE AND THUS THE ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE THIS MORNING.

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

1229 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

BASICALLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ENSURES A
CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND A DRY FORECAST. BUFKIT INDICATES
THAT WE WILL MIX TO NEAR 700 MB THIS AFTERNOON AND I HAVE LOWERED
DEWPOINTS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. I HAVE THEM BOTTOMING OUT IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...BUT THEY MAY VERY WELL GO LOWER THAN
THIS. ONE ISSUE MAY BE THAT RECENT RAIN WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS FROM
DROPPING TOO FAR. THIS MAY AFFECT TEMPERATURES AS WELL...BUT FOR
NOW...I HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE INTO THE UPPER 80S
AND LOWER 90S WITH A COMBINATION OF ARW AND RAP FOR HIGHS. LOWS
TONIGHT WERE CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY...THEN
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING WED NIGHT AND BEYOND.

DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE START OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD TUESDAY...WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LOOKING AT
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE IN
PLACE...THANKS TO A TROUGH AXIS SLIDING TOWARD THE EAST COAST AND
A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH THROUGH THE WRN CONUS. AT THE
SURFACE...MODELS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER CO...WHILE
LOW PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ACROSS CANADA ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. AN ACCOMPANYING FRONT EXTENDS S/SW INTO THE NRN
ROCKIES. THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS...THAT CANADIAN DISTURBANCE
KEEPS PUSHING EAST...WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY CONTINUING TO DRIFT
SOUTH. THIS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP WINDS ACROSS THE CWA W/SWRLY
THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH SPEEDS WILL BE ON THE LOWER END /10 TO 15
MPH/ AS THAT BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE FAR N/NW CWA BY LATE
AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOWING 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER/MID
20S DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
GOOD MIXING POTENTIAL AND THAT WRLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS...HAVE
FORECAST HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MID 90S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. SOME
MODELS/GUIDANCE SUGGEST IT COULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN THAT.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE DRY FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH
MOST OF WEDNESDAY WITH THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINING OVER
THE REGION...THROUGH THE AXIS WILL BE PUSHING EAST AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST. THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHING SOUTH ON TUESDAY CONTINUES TO DO SO...BUT AS IT LOSES ITS
PUSH FROM ALOFT...WEAKENS/STALLS OUT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN COOLER HIGHS FOR WED...BUT NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH THE FORECAST CALLING FOR MID 80S TO LOWER
90S. HAD INHERITED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE NW FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTN...DECIDED TO KEEP THEM GENERALLY AS IS...WITH MODELS SHOWING
A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTED OUT AHEAD OF THAT WRN
LOW...MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY ONTO THE PLAINS.
THE BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK TO COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...AND THE HIGHER POPS REMAIN IN PLACE.
SHEAR/INSTABILITY VALUES SUGGEST THAT STRONG/SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE ENTIRE CWA IN THE SPC DAY 3 MARGINAL RISK
AREA.

LOOKING AT THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THAT RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
PLAINS EVENTUALLY BECOMES COMPLETELY BROKEN DOWN BY THAT WRN
ENERGY...LEAVING AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH
THIS ENTIRE TIME FRAME. LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/LOCATION OF
ANY DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH...KEPT POPS IN THE 30-50 PERCENT
RANGE. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO KEEP HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL SITES THROUGHOUT THE
VALID TAF PERIOD.

OTHER THAN A WIND SHIFT...THIS WILL BE A RATHER QUIET PERIOD
WEATHER-WISE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...GUERRERO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

430 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY...THEN
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING WED NIGHT AND BEYOND.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING) ISSUED AT 427 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL ENSURE VFR CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH IT MAY
BECOME JUST A BIT GUSTY FOR A SHORT TIME IN THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY KGRI. WIND WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE
SOUTHWEST RATHER THAN NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT...BUT LIGHT ENOUGHTO
PRECLUDE A NEW FM GROUP.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...HEINLEIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

356 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY...THEN
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING WED NIGHT AND BEYOND.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL HELP KEEP SKY CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR.
MIXING UP TO 700 MB IS EXPECTED...SO A BIT OF A GUST MAY OCCUR IN
THE EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR KGRI.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...HEINLEIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LAS VEGAS NV

902 PM PDT TUE JUN 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH POST TROPICAL CYCLONE BLANCA
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING LEADING TO
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL GENERATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
THE BEST CHANCES NORTH AND EAST OF LAS VEGAS. A RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL JUNE WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY. &&

.UPDATE...SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR MODEL
FORECAST DATA. THE SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS PAGE SHOWS ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
RANGING FROM AN INCH ACROSS SOUTHERN INYO, NYE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES
TO 1.8 INCHES AT THE SOUTHERN CWA DOORSTEP. THE LAPS HOURLY SURFACE
ANALYSIS HOWEVER SHOWS STABLE CONDITIONS NEARLY AREA WIDE WITH THE
LATEST SPC ANALYSIS CONFIRMING IT. THUS, DECIDED TO REMOVE MENTION
OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ALTHOUGH THE NAM12 STILL
INDICATES WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING TONIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HERE AND THERE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS HANGING TOUGH AT
9 PM BUT SENSORS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGES OF THE VALLEY ARE
BEGINNING TO SHOW A MORE SOUTH COMPONENT. TYPICAL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
DRAINAGE WINDS OF 5-10 KTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT HOUR. LIGHT
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON THEN SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 KNOTS AFTER 21Z. LIGHT SHOWERS
AND LOWER CIGS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS A THREAT.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WINDS WILL MAINLY BE SOUTHERLY 10-15 KNOTS THROUGH THIS
EVENING BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SOUTH WINDS 10-15 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LIGHT RAIN AND CIGS POSSIBLY LOWERING TO 6-
8 KFT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS A THREAT. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...302 PM PDT...

.DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

THE DEWPOINT AT BOULDER CITY AIRPORT HAD RISEN TO 52 AS OF 2 PM
AFTER STARTING THE DAY AROUND 30. A FEW SITES IN MOHAVE COUNTY HAVE
MEASURED A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. THIS MOISTURE FROM FORMER
TROPICAL CYCLONE BLANCA WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD THIS
EVENING LEADING TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. THE 18Z NAM12 NOW SHOWS SOME DESTABILIZATION OVERNIGHT SO
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND BRIEFLY HEAVIER RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
SOME DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY LATER
TONIGHT AS THE MAIN BAND OF TROPICAL MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTH. THERE
WILL STILL BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE LINGERING WEDNESDAY
HOWEVER AND THE PACIFIC UPPER LOW COMING IN FROM THE WEST WILL
COMBINE WITH THIS MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. DECENT SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE FARTHER
SOUTH LEADING TO A THREAT OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH STORMS. THE
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE TO UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE AND ENERGY WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF
THE LOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND DOWN INTO CENTRAL MOHAVE COUNTY.
MODELS SHOW ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
MOVING DOWN INTO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A MORE WESTERLY
FLOW FINALLY STARTS TO DEVELOP SATURDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXCEPT
FOR MAYBE MOHAVE COUNTY WHERE SOME MOISTURE LINGERS. AN UPPER TROUGH
SETTING UP OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL LEAD TO A DRY ZONAL FLOW
OVER OUR AREA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES. &&

UPDATE/AVIATION...SALMEN
PREV DISCUSSION...HARRISON

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM

1154 PM MDT SUN JUN 7 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE WANED OVER MOST OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO JUST PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. SOME LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTHEASTERN TO EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AS A WEAK SURFACE FRONT
APPROACHES...POTENTIALLY LOWERING CEILINGS TO MVFR STATUS AT
KCAO...KLVS...KTCC...AND PERHAPS KCVS. THESE WILL DISPERSE INTO
THE LATE MORNING WITH MORE ABUNDANT MOISTURE STAYING OVER THE
EASTERN PART OF THE STATE. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONSEQUENTLY BE
FAVORING THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.PREV DISCUSSION...803 PM MDT SUN JUN 7 2015...
.UPDATE...
UPDATED 1ST PERIOD FORECAST TO TWEAK POPS DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND 18Z NAM12 OUTPUT. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE NE HAS EXPIRED. A FEW STRONG STORMS
STILL POSSIBLE...BUT MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
PLAINS.

.PREV DISCUSSION...340 PM MDT SUN JUN 7 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST
AND EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS EVENING. A SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL SNEAK INTO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL TONIGHT
AND MONDAY...AND MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SEEP INTO THE STATE FROM
DISINTEGRATING HURRICANE BLANCA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SOME STORMS
WITH GUSTY WINDS BUT LITTLE RAIN ARE POSSIBLE FAR WEST
MONDAY...BEFORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES WESTWARD AGAIN. TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY APPEAR RATHER ACTIVE...BUT NO DAY FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THIS WEEK WILL BE TOTALLY DRY OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

.DISCUSSION...
BUSY AFTERNOON AT THE RADAR RANCH. SOME DRYING HAS OCCURRED IN THE FAR
WEST AND DEWPOINTS OUT THERE STARTING TO CRATER. THE EAST IS IN LINE
TO SEE MORE STORM ACTION THIS EARLY EVENING...BUT SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE SHORTER TERM MODELS...WITH THE RUC HOLDING ONTO
MORE PRECIPITATION OVER A WIDER AREA INTO THE OVERNIGHT...AND
SUGGESTING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MAKE BETTER PROGRESS FARTHER
SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT. THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
AND LOW LEVEL EAST WINDS WILL HELP BRING MOISTURE WESTWARD AGAIN
BY TUESDAY...IN THE MEANTIME THERE MAY BE SOME DRY-ISH STORMS OUT
TOWARD THE AZ BORDER. THE MAIN PORTION OF WHAT/S LEFT OF BLANCA
MAY GO UP AND OVER THE RIDGE...ACCORDING TO THE GFS...AND OVER NRN
NM AND SRN CO TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH AN UPPER
TROF. MAIN STORY IS INCREASED POPS FOR EARLY TO MID WEEK
ESPECIALLY WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS. AFTER THAT ANOTHER TROF
KEEPS MOISTURE FLOWING INTO THE REGION...SO NO DAY IS DRY FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. HIGHS WILL BE GENERALLY NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE.

.FIRE WEATHER...
STORMS HAVE BEEN QUITE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY HAS BEEN NOTED
ELSEWHERE. AS SUCH...WETTING RAIN HAS BEEN ABUNDANT ACROSS THE
EAST...BUT IT HAS BEEN SPOTTIER ACROSS THE WEST. MOST STORMS ACROSS
WESTERN NM SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUNSET...THOUGH STORMS ACROSS THE EAST
SHOULD CONTINUE THRU THE EVE. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE NE PLAINS...AND MAY BE AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR STORMS. AS THE
FRONT OOZES SOUTH AND WEST...IT SHOULD WEAKLY PUSH THRU THE GAPS OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN LATE TONIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...DRY AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE NW HALF OR
SO OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT WHILE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE
BLANCA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE SE HALF OF THE
STATE. GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WEST...AND
EXCELLENT RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EAST BEHIND THE FRONT.

WITH THE FRONT BACKING UP TO THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTN. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN. ISO-SCT STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EDGE
OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OR POINTS
JUST WEST...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR WEST THE FRONT MAKES IT. AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD...STORMS WILL LIKELY BE MOVING MUCH SLOWER
THAN TODAY...SO SOME AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. LATER
MONDAY...SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM BLANCA SHOULD ALSO MOVE INTO
SWRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
STORMS TO DEVELOP THERE AS WELL.

THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY...STEERING THE
BEST MOISTURE FROM BLANCA WESTWARD INTO AZ/CA. THEREFORE...THE BEST
CHANCES OF PRECIP ON TUESDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
HOWEVER...ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT REMAINS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/WEST BEHIND THE BACK DOOR FRONT MAY ALSO HELP INITIATE
STORMS.

MODELS STILL STRUGGLING WITH WHERE EXACTLY THE REMNANT MOISTURE FROM
BLANCA WILL GO LATE TUE AND WED AS THE NEXT TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE
CALI COAST. THE GFS HAS CONSISTENTLY PUSHED THE MOISTURE NORTHWARD
FROM AZ/CA INTO UTAH...WITH NM ON THE EDGE. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF
SHOWS BETTER MOISTURE MAKING IT INTO NM. NONETHELESS...IT LOOKS LIKE
THERE COULD BE AN UPTICK IN ACTIVITY LATE TUE INTO WED.

LATEST MODELS SHOW THURS TO BE MUCH DRIER AS A DRY SLOT ENVELOPES
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH. STILL SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
AROUND FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED ACTIVITY. THE TROUGH/LOW SHOULD MOVE
OVER THE NM/CO BORDER LATE THURS AND FRIDAY AND AN ASSOCIATED BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NE PLAINS. THUS...MORE STORMS
POSSIBLE.

FAIR TO GOOD VENTILATION EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY BENEATH THE
RIDGE...AND THEN TRENDING UPWARD ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. VENT
RATES MAY TREND DOWNWARD AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

242 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN,
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY, TO THE OVERNIGHT AND LASTING INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. AFTER A BRIEF DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
BEFORE A RETURN TO FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY LATE THURSDAY WITH
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, THEN TREND WARMER FROM MID
WEEK ONWARD.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1232 PM EDT MONDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO MENTION SCATTERED
STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
OUR FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LINE OF DEVELOPING STORMS
CONTINUES TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEW
YORK IN FAVORABLE HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT. WHILE SURFACE
INSTABILITY IS LIMITED, ENOUGH DYNAMICAL FORCING FROM SHEAR AND
STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO LIKELY KEEP THIS LINE PROGRESSING
EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE CAPITAL REGION AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST VERMONT. LATEST HI-RES CAM
OUTPUT INCLUDING THE 14Z HRRR DEPICT BEST BOWING-TYPE STRUCTURE
MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF RUTLAND COUNTY IN THE 4-5 PM TIME FRAME. AS
A RESULT HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR STORMS/GUSTY WINDS IN
THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE
GIVEN THINKING ABOVE AND LATEST UPDATED SWODY1 OUTPUT FROM THE
STORM PREDCITION CENTER. REST OF FORECAST IN REGARD TO POPS/TEMPS
ETC STILL REASONABLY ON TRACK, SO ONLY NOMINAL/NOISE LEVEL
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THESE DATASETS AT THE NOONTIME HOUR.

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 349 AM EDT MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT THE 700 MB TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO JUST TO OUT IMMEDIATE WEST OF NEW
YORK WHICH WILL SERVE TO PUSH THE BEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THUS
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BECOME OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT OVER
RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES THIS EVENING.

THEN INTO TUESDAY AS THE 500MB TROUGH BECOMES SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY
TILTED ANOTHER WAVE OF ENERGY WILL LIFT NORTH BRINGING A SECOND
CHANCE FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. THUS BURST OF ENERGY WILL
IMPACT MAINLY THE GREENS EASTWARD SO THAT ALL OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
GETS THEIR FAIR SHOT AT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE
EVENT. USING A BLENDED APPROACH I USED A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS WITH THE NAM/WRF/SREF WHICH LEAD TO A
SLIGHT REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE INDIVIDUAL RUNS FROM THE CMC AND
THE GFS. THE NET RESULT OF THAT IS THE AREA WIDE FOR THE 48 HOUR
EVENT OUR STORM TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM 1-2.5 INCHES WITH AN
ISOLATED 3" INCH POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

BY LATE TUESDAY THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA AND GIVE WAY TO LIGHT ZONAL FLOW FOR A DAY BEFORE
THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES IN THE EXTENDED.

TEMPS DURING THE MID WEEK WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S DUE TO ALL THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN SHOWERS WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 238 PM EDT MONDAY...OVERALL DEVELOPING PATTERN
IS SOME RIDGING INTO SOUTHEAST/EAST CONUS BUT WITH FORECAST AREA
BEING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY AND WITH NORTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCES IN A STUBBORN TROFINESS PATTERN TO OUR NORTH THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO MORE DISTURBED WEATHER.

WE START OUT THIS LONG TERM WITH ONE SUCH SYSTEM EXITING OUR REGION
ON THU FOLLOWED BY SOME WEAK RIDGING AND MAINLY DRY ON FRIDAY THEN
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE FRI NGT/SAT WITH MORE RAINFALL. LARGE SCALE
RIDGING RETURNS ON SUNDAY THUS DRY SUNDAY BUT ANOTHER POSSIBLE
THREAT OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...AVIATION CHALLENGES WILL BE TIMING OF
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS. CURRENT
RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL NY...MOVING TOWARD OUR SOUTHERN/CENTRAL TAF
SITES. THIS LINE WILL ENTER SLK BTWN 18Z-20Z...RUT/MPV/BTV BTWN
19Z-22Z...AND EXITING OUR TAF SITES BY THIS EVENING. EXPECT BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH VIS BTWN 1-3SM ALONG WITH LOCALIZED SFC WIND GUSTS
TO 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT RUTLAND. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED MVFR VIS IN THE HEAVIER DOWN POURS WILL MOVE ACROSS
OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN TAF SITES BTWN 02Z-08Z TONIGHT. GIVEN
SOUTHWEST UPSLOPE FLW AT SLK AND SOUTHEAST FLOW AT MPV...EXPECT
MVFR TO IFR CIGS TO PREVAIL AT TIMES THRU 12Z TUES. BREEZY SFC
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AS PERIODS OF RAIN IMPACT OUR TAF SITES
AND STRONGEST LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS SHIFT TO OUR EAST. STILL
ANTICIPATE LOCALIZED AREAS OF TURBULENCE AND WIND SHEAR IN AND
AROUND STORMS THRU THIS AFTN. MORE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ACROSS OUR REGION.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY AFTN INTO WEDS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS
ACROSS OUR REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL RESULT IN DRYING
CONDITIONS ON WEDS...WITH VFR DEVELOPING. SOME LINGERING MVFR CIGS
ARE LIKELY AT MPV/SLK THRU WEDS MORNING. A WEAK FRONT WILL PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE WEDS INTO THURSDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRES AND
IFR RETURNS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE
RECENT RAINFALL AND SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS...IF MORE CLEARING
AND LIGHT WINDS DEVELOP...PATCHY FOG/BR WILL BE POSSIBLE ANY
MORNING AT MPV/SLK.

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 4 AM EDT MONDAY...A WIDESPREAD 36-48 HOUR RAINFALL EVENT IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING LATER TONIGHT AND PERSISTING
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE CONVECTIVE RAINFALL
ON HOURLY TIME SCALES AND RESULTANT FLASH FLOOD THREAT APPEARS
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT
TWO DAY RAINFALL TOTALS DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM
1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SCATTERED AMOUNTS
NEARING THREE INCHES FROM THE ADIRONDACKS INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN VERMONT. THESE TOTALS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND MAY ELEVATE THE THREAT OF MINOR/NUISANCE
FLOODING ISSUES. RIVERS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO SHARPER RISES DURING
THIS EVENT ARE THE AUSABLE, MISSISQUOI, LAMOILLE, AND POSSIBLY THE
PASSUMPSIC AND WINOOSKI. IF PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE OR HIGHER
PRECIPITATION TOTALS APPEAR LIKELY, THEN A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

.MARINE...
AS OF 335 PM EDT MONDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. A
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST BUT WE WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECTS THIS EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING. STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS 20-30 KNOTS ALONG THE BROAD LAKE EARLY THEN
SUBSIDING WITH CHOPPY WATERS AND WAVE HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 2-5
FEET ON OPEN WATERS AND IN BAYS AND INLETS WITH OPEN SOUTHERN
EXPOSURES.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...TABER
HYDROLOGY...JMG
MARINE...BTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

142 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 349 AM EDT MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT THE 700 MB TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO JUST TO OUT IMMEDIATE WEST OF NEW
YORK WHICH WILL SERVE TO PUSH THE BEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THUS
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BECOME OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT OVER
RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES THIS EVENING.

BY LATE TUESDAY THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA AND GIVE WAY TO LIGHT ZONAL FLOW FOR A DAY BEFORE
THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES IN THE EXTENDED.

TEMPS DURING THE MID WEEK WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S DUE TO ALL THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN SHOWERS WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 349 AM EDT MONDAY...LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST
TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL. GOING FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED
WELL AND IF IT WERE NOT FOR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...WE COULD SEE
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S...BUT HAVE KEPT READINGS MORE IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80. SPEAKING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS...IT LOOKS LIKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY LOOK TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AS WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION AND ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRYING TAKES PLACE LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT MORE
NOTICEABLE DRYING TAKES PLACE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...AVIATION CHALLENGES WILL BE TIMING OF
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS. CURRENT
RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL NY...MOVING TOWARD OUR SOUTHERN/CENTRAL TAF
SITES. THIS LINE WILL ENTER SLK BTWN 18Z-20Z...RUT/MPV/BTV BTWN
19Z-22Z...AND EXITING OUR TAF SITES BY THIS EVENING. EXPECT BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH VIS BTWN 1-3SM ALONG WITH LOCALIZED SFC WIND GUSTS
TO 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT RUTLAND. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED MVFR VIS IN THE HEAVIER DOWN POURS WILL MOVE ACROSS
OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN TAF SITES BTWN 02Z-08Z TONIGHT. GIVEN
SOUTHWEST UPSLOPE FLW AT SLK AND SOUTHEAST FLOW AT MPV...EXPECT
MVFR TO IFR CIGS TO PREVAIL AT TIMES THRU 12Z TUES. BREEZY SFC
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AS PERIODS OF RAIN IMPACT OUR TAF SITES
AND STRONGEST LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS SHIFT TO OUR EAST. STILL
ANTICIPATE LOCALIZED AREAS OF TURBULENCE AND WIND SHEAR IN AND
AROUND STORMS THRU THIS AFTN. MORE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ACROSS OUR REGION.

.MARINE...
AS OF 355 AM EDT MONDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. A
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BEGUN TO SET UP OVER THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BRINING
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS 20-30 KNOTS ALONG THE BROAD LAKE. WIND
GUSTS COULD REACH THE LOW 40S. THE HIGH WINDS WILL CAUSE CHOPPY
WATERS AND WAVE HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 2-5 FEET ON OPEN WATERS AND
IN BAYS AND INLETS WITH OPEN SOUTHERN EXPOSURES.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...TABER
HYDROLOGY...JMG
MARINE...DEAL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

1232 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

BY LATE TUESDAY THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA AND GIVE WAY TO LIGHT ZONAL FLOW FOR A DAY BEFORE
THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES IN THE EXTENDED.

TEMPS DURING THE MID WEEK WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S DUE TO ALL THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN SHOWERS WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...RAIN CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING AND THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...MAINLY BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z...19Z AND 02Z...AND AFTER 10Z.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE IN THE VFR AND MVFR CATEGORIES.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL EXIST AT MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH 16Z WITH
40 KNOT WINDS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 2000 FEET. THESE WINDS
WILL TAPER OFF AFTER 16Z WITH SURFACE WINDS GUSTING IN THE 15 TO
25 KNOT RANGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS PERSISTING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR MORE MVFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS THEN RETURN
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON
HYDROLOGY...JMG
MARINE...DEAL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

1016 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST THEN WEAKENS. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH HEAT INDICES BECOMING
INCREASINGLY UNCOMFORTABLE.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM MONDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE MID
MORNING UPDATE. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR SHOW THE INLAND
THREAT...ALBEIT SMALL...STILL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDER LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CATALYST SHOULD BE THE GRADUAL
HEIGHT FALLS AND OUTFLOW FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION WELL TO THE
WEST. SEA BREEZE WILL PLAY A ROLE AS WELL. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE
WILL BE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. WILL MAKE A DETERMINATION AFTER ALL
OF THE 1200 UTC GUIDANCE ARRIVES. NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...WEAK FRONT WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY TUE INTO
TUE NIGHT BEFORE DECAYING ON WED. THE BOUNDARY MAY NOT REACH THE
AREA AND INSTEAD REMAIN JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. THE
PRESENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE TUE ALONG WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND A WEAK
PIEDMONT TROUGH...WHICH HELPS MASK THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT...IS
LIKELY TO GENERATE PLENTY OF CONVECTION. FURTHER AIDING CONVECTION
WILL BE GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS DURING THE DAY AS WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES OVERHEAD. ALTHOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT BE SUPPORTIVE OF
ANY LARGE SCALE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT THERE EXISTS THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE CONVECTION. DCAPE IN THE RANGE OF 1000J/KG
SUGGEST DAMAGING WIND IS THE MAIN CONCERN.

REMAINS OF THE FRONT WILL BE ALL BUT IMPOSSIBLE TO DISCERN BY WED AS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TRIES TO RE-ESTABLISH
ITSELF. SUBTLE HEIGHT INCREASES AS MID LEVEL TROUGH EXITS AND 5H
RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD ALONG WITH BRIEF MID LEVEL DRYING MAKE A GOOD
ARGUMENT AGAINST CARRY POP HIGHER THAN LOW CHC SO WILL TREND WED
POP FORECAST DOWN. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE CLIMO
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...BIG STORY IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE EXPANDING MID
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK. PERIOD BEGINS WITH
REMAINS OF WASHED OUT FRONT NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING IN THE AREA. DIURNAL HEATING THU MAY GENERATE
SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOW THE SIGNS
OF THE BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE. IT MAY BE THAT SOME ISOLATED
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BUT ENDS UP QUITE WEAK.

MID LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN FRI THROUGH SAT WITH 500
TEMPS WARMING A DEGREE OR TWO. DESPITE THIS WARMING AND LOW LEVEL
DOWNSLOPE FLOW SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF DRYING. IN
FACT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES START CLIMBING LATE IN THE
PERIOD...PEAKING AT OVER 2 INCHES SUN AFTERNOON. 850 TEMPS OF 18 TO
20C SUGGEST HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE MID 90S BUT DO WONDER A LITTLE
ABOUT POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MID LEVEL MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING. SUBSIDENCE IS LIKELY TO SUPPRESS A
GOOD PORTION OF THE CONVECTION BUT NOT SOLD THAT THE REGION WILL
REMAIN DRY. SO WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SILENT POP FRI THROUGH SUN.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED 850 TEMPS. IN ADDITION THE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SEEMS QUITE LIKELY
THAT AT LEAST SOME OF THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT
INDEX VALUES DURING THE END OF THE WEEK AND START OF NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...INLAND TERMINALS ARE EXPERIENCING TEMPO MVFR CIGS THIS
MORNING. COASTAL TERMINALS ARE VFR WITH A FEW CU/SC CLOUDS.

LOW CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AS HEATING BEGINS. THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TEMPO MVFR CIGS BUT THINK CIGS WILL BE LOW VFR
FOR THE MOST PART. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE MAINLY JUST INLAND OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS LATE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE S-SSW TODAY AROUND
10KT WITH SOME GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS TO
15-20KT AS INLAND TEMPS MAX OUT. OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AT THE INLAND
TERMINALS BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
AFTER 01-03Z THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN 5-8 KT OVERNIGHT. SOME LIGHT
RAIN MAY AFFECT INLAND TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS/TEMPO MVFR EACH DAY...
OTHERWISE VFR.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM MONDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
WITH THE MID MORNING UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

VEERING WINDS FROM ESE-SSE EXPECTED TODAY
AS A SURFACE HIGH ALONG THE COAST SLIPS OFFSHORE...AND A RETURN
WIND FLOW IS FORMED. INSHORE GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE MIDDLE
AND LATE AFTERNOON DURING HEIGHT OF THE SEA BREEZE CAN BE
EXPECTED. SEAS AROUND 3 FEET TODAY IN A MIX OF 2-3 FOOT E WAVES
EVERY 9 SECONDS AND A LIGHT TO MODERATE SE-S CHOP. NO TSTMS OR
LOCAL RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED...BUT A FEW LATE NIGHT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND CAPE FEAR INTO DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL REMAIN
THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THE WIND FIELD DURING THE PERIOD.
APPROACH OF SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST TUE WILL
TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...KEEPING SOUTHWEST FLOW 15 TO 20 KT
TUE AND TUE NIGHT. FRONT WEAKENS INTO WED...RELAXING THE GRADIENT
WHICH RESULTS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW DROPPING TO 10 TO 15 KT FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT TUE AND TUE NIGHT DROP
TO 2 TO 3 FT WED AND WED NIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
REMAINS THE KEY FEATURE THROUGH FRI. THE LACK OF ANY OTHER
NOTEWORTHY SURFACE FEATURES WILL KEEP THE GRADIENT RELAXED. THE
RESULT WILL BE SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WITH
POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED NEARSHORE WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE
SEA BREEZE. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

635 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE INTO
CENTRAL NC TUESDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY WASH OUT AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 335 AM MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST COAST THIS
MORNING...WITH SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND MOISTURE RETURN
AROUND THE HIGH DIRECTED INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND BLUE RIDGE WHERE
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTHEAST...JUST NORTHWEST OF
THE TRIAD AREA. THERE`S NOTHING TO REALLY SUGGEST THE SHOWERS WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD...THOUGH THE HRRR SHOWS SOME SOME SIMULATED ECHOES
AROUND AS FAR EAST AS GREENSBORO BY 12Z.

DEVELOPING STRATUS OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID-
MORNING AS A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN SHORTWAVE
SWINGING ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW GUST POTENTIAL UP TO AROUND 20KT OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS OVER WV
THIS MORNING SHOULD MOSTLY PASS TO OUR NORTH AND MORE ROBUST
MID/HIGH LEVEL WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. FULL SUN
THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S.

SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION WEST OF THE TRIAD THIS AFTERNOON MAY SLOWLY
DRIFT EAST EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE A BETTER (BROKEN) LINE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH
CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS. DESPITE DECENT DPVA AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE...POOR DIURNAL TIMING AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
SHOULD RESULT IN A WEAKENING TREND WITH EASTWARD EXTENT BY
MIDNIGHT...AND MOST CAMS SHOW LITTLE PRECIP MAKING IT ALL THE WAY TO
THE I-95 CORRIDOR. LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 AM MONDAY...

DESPITE THE EARLY PASSAGE OF THE PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND
SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE TUESDAY MORNING...THE COMBINATION OF A
SHARPER PREFRONTAL LEE TROUGH AND DESTABILIZATION (AROUND 1000 J/KG
MLCAPE EAST OF US 1) BENEATH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE NOT OPTIMAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...PARTICULARLY WITH STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW TOT HE NORTH
OVER VA...BUT A COUPLE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE.
HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S.

A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH UPPER TROUGH AND ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY EVENING...ALLOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO
SLIP SOUTH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH ITS STILL
QUESTIONABLE WHETHER OR NOT THE FRONT WILL PUSH ALL THE WAY THROUGH
THE AREA. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE FRONT WILL END UP NEAR THE
SANDHILLS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. GIVEN WESTERLY FLOW AND DRYING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...ALONG WITH ONLY WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...ANY
SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT SHOULD BE ISOLATED. LOWS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM MONDAY...

A WEAK COLD FRONT CHARACTERIZED MORE BY SLIGHTLY LOWER HUMIDITY
VALUES THAN COOLING...AND THE TAIL END OF AN ACCOMPANYING MID LEVEL
TROUGH REFERENCED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...WILL DRIFT EAST
ACROSS EASTERN NC WED. BEFORE THE FOLLOWING HEIGHT RISES/SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT/DEVELOPING CAP SPREAD ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER SOUTHEASTERN NC...SOME OF WHICH MAY DEVELOP AS FAR NW AS
THE RAH EASTERN SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN-CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH
MID-AFTERNOON. WARM AND OTHERWISE DRY...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

THE MODELS ARE THEN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO...WHILE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING OTHERWISE EXPANDS ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHEAST US. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING WILL
RESULT IN RISING TEMPERATURES...INTO THE LOWER 90S...LATE IN THE
WEEK INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
RELATIVELY LOW OWING TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE WARM RIDGE...WITH THE
RELATIVE BEST CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON STORM ON THE SEA BREEZE
(INCLUDING AROUND SAMPSON COUNTY) AND ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.

A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ONE THAT THE MODELS SUGGEST
WILL BE SLIGHTLY PRECEDED BY OR WILL INCLUDE THE ABSORBED REMNANTS
OF BLANCA...WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATE FRI-SAT. AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT AND FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SETTLE
SOUTH INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE
PRECEDING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE SUGGESTS THE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH
OF CENTRAL NC THROUGH AT LEAST SAT...AND QUITE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONSEQUENTLY REMAIN RELATIVELY
HOT...WITH LIMITED RAIN CHANCES.

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 635 AM MONDAY...

STRATUS IS A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN MOST MODELS PROJECTED THIS
MORNING BUT SHOULD STILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AND LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS
BY LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL WEAKEN
TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST...
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 12KT...GUSTING TO 15-
20KT AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SHOULD LEAD TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS LATER THIS EVENING...WITH
HIGHER PROBABILITIES AT KGSO AND KINT AFTER 22Z AND A GENERAL
WEAKENING TREND TO THE EAST TOWARD KRDU/KRWI/KFAY OVERNIGHT. PATCHY
LOW CLOUDS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY THERE WILL BE.

OUTLOOK... SOME SUB-VFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ON TUESDAY
(ESPECIALLY OVER EASTER NC) AND THEN MAINLY JUST ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS EACH AFTERNOON FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...22

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

359 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SUMMER-LIKE
PATTERN WILL THEN DOMINATE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 335 AM MONDAY...

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 AM MONDAY...

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM MONDAY...

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM MONDAY...

PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD. WITH A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN THE EAST COAST...MOISTURE
RETURN IS DIRECTED ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN NC THIS MORNING AND SOME
STRATUS MAY DEVELOP JUST PRIOR TO 12Z AT KGSO AND KINT...THOUGH
THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN HI-RES GUIDANCE THAT PATCHY LOW CLOUDS
MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE VERY BRIEFLY FROM KFAY TO KRDU. WHAT STRATUS
THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BURN OFF VERY QUICKLY AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL TODAY WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTING TO 15-20KT AT TIMES.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE REGION SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS LATER THIS EVENING...WITH HIGHER
PROBABILITIES AT KGSO AND KINT AFTER 22Z AND A GENERAL WEAKENING
TREND TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK... SOME SUB-VFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ON TUESDAY AND
THEN MAINLY JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS EACH AFTERNOON FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...22

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

335 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 335 AM MONDAY...

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 AM MONDAY...

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM SUNDAY...

TUE STILL APPEARS TO BE OUR BEST SHOT AT SHOWERS/STORMS FOR MOST OF
CENTRAL NC. THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL HELP SHARPEN
SURFACE TROUGHING THROUGH WRN AND CENTRAL NC... PROVIDING A FOCUS
FOR LOW LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE. THIS WILL OCCUR IN CONJUNCTION WITH
A MOIST CONVEYOR BAND OF ABOVE-NORMAL PW (OVER 150% OF NORMAL)... AS
WELL AS A BATCH OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE SSWRLY UPPER JET OVER SE CANADA/INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND.
TIMING COULD BE AN ISSUE HOWEVER... GIVEN THAT THE LATEST MODELS
HAVE THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSAGE OCCURRING DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY (THE NAM IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND SEVERAL
HOURS SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF)... POTENTIALLY MAKING FOR TOO MANY
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WHICH WOULD LIMIT DESTABILIZATION DURING PEAK
HEATING. AND THE 30+ KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE SHIFTING TO OUR NORTH
AND NE EARLY TUE... ALSO LIMITING THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE
LATEST SREF FOR TUE HAS > 70% PROBABILITIES OF A SURFACE CAPE OVER
1000 J/KG AREAWIDE AND A 50% PROBABILITY OF MLCAPE OVER 1000 J/KG...
DECENT BUT NOT GREAT... AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS PROJECTED TO PEAK AT
25-30 KTS EARLY IN THE DAY OVER THE NORTH ONLY. THIS IS REINFORCED
BY THE LATEST GFS WHICH HAS SKINNY MUCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG
RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. SO THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH FORCING VIA DYNAMIC AND THERMODYNAMIC LIFT PROCESSES TO
SUPPORT 50-60% POPS GIVEN THE EXPECTED PW VALUES... BUT THE THREAT
OF ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED SEVERE WINDS LOOKS MINOR. COVERAGE IS
APT TO BE GREATEST IN THE EAST... WITH ADDED FOCUS NEAR THE SEA
BREEZE. THICKNESSES WILL START OUT NEAR NORMAL... AND WITH MORE
CLOUDS THAN SUN... EXPECT HIGHS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL... IN THE MID
80S. LOWS TUE NIGHT 64-70 WITH CONVECTION CHANCES DWINDLING AND
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST... WITH STABILIZATION AFTER SUNDOWN BEHIND
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSAGE.

NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY CROSSING NEW ENGLAND TUE NIGHT WILL SHIFT
WELL EAST WED... DEAMPLIFYING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE MEAN MID
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CAROLINAS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR DECREASES TO JUST
5-15 KTS WITH A LOSS OF EVEN WEAK DYNAMIC FORCING. MUCAPE IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNDER 500 J/KG OVER MOST OF THE CWA WED... AND PW
SLIPS TO UNDER 1.50". WILL RETAIN LOW POPS IN THE SOUTHERN/ERN CWA
ONLY WED... PEAKING DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON... AND DIMINISHING
AFTER NIGHTFALL. THICKNESSES CONTINUE TO CLIMB... ABOUT 5 M HIGHER
ON WED THAN ON TUE... AND WITH MORE SUNSHINE... HIGHS SHOULD BE
AROUND 90. LOWS 67-72.

LITTLE CHANGE FOR THU/FRI WITH THE PIEDMONT TROUGH HOLDING IN
PLACE... LIMITED DEEP MOISTURE... VERY WEAK SHEAR... AND RISING
HEIGHTS ALOFT. MODELS DO DRIFT SPURIOUS VORTICITY MAXIMA INTO
SRN/WRN CWA BUT THIS APPEARS UNLIKELY TO AMOUNT TO MUCH (IF IT EVEN
OCCURS) GIVEN THE ABOVE MITIGATING FACTORS. WILL KEEP LOW POPS
FOCUSED ALONG THE INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE AND PERHAPS OVER THE FAR
NW (MOUNTAIN CONVECTION DRIFTING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN) BOTH THU
AND FRI. MODEL DIFFERENCES GROW OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
VARIABILITY IN THEIR NORTHERN STREAM PATTERNS... ALTHOUGH THEY
GENERALLY AGREE ON MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. THE GFS DEPICTS STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY SAT WHICH PUSHES A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DOWN THE
MIDATLANTIC COAST TOWARD NC BY SUN... HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY WITH SUCH
A FEATURE IS HIGH CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH OF THE BUILDING RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND CAROLINAS. WILL LEAN TOWARD A DRIER AND
WARMER FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND... WITH TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL... HIGHS AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY... WITH
LOWS AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S. -GIH

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM MONDAY...

.CLIMATE...

REC REC
REC REC LO HI REC
DAY MAX YR MIN YR MAX YR MIN YR PCPN YR
RDU RECORDS
06/07 100 2008 47 1977 61 1997 74 2008 5.14 2013
06/08 101 2008 38 1977 63 1891 75 1899 1.71 1943
06/09 100 2008 47 2002 58 1913 75 1993 3.29 1943
GSO RECORDS
06/07 98 1925 47 1998 63 1997 73 2008 4.42 1916
06/08 98 1933 42 1977 65 1997 73 2008 1.68 1951
06/09 99 1933 46 1931 59 1957 72 2008 2.00 1909
FAY RECORDS
06/07 99 2008 40 1929 60 1997 75 2008 2.36 2013
06/08 101 2008 47 1977 66 1997 74 2008 1.30 1985
06/09 101 2008 50 1997 59 1913 77 2008 2.02 1957

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...22

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

1003 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015

SLIGHT CHANGES WERE MADE TO SKY COVER AND POPS...THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015

THE PRIMARY UPDATES WERE TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW BASED ON THE LAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE HRRR MODEL...WHICH
HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH FIRING CONVECTION IN
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE
ON TRACK.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER EASTERN ONTARIO WITH COLD
FRONT DROPPING DOWN THROUGH NORTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO SOUTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE AREA WITH SHORT WAVE NOTED OVER WESTERN MONTANA.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES WITH
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING
THIS EVENING. QUIET WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED BEFORE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT
WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
LATE...WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST.

ON WEDNESDAY...SHORT WAVE CONTINUES ITS PUSH INTO THE REGION WITH
SHOWER CHANCES SPREADING PRIMARILY THROUGH WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HAVE KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST IN THE
MORNING GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY...WITH A SLIGHT MENTION OF IT IN
THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT...WITH HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015

INTERACTION BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES AND A SURFACE LOW/FRONT
INTO SOUTH DAKOTA WILL RESULT IN LIKELY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTHWEST...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE.
NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER AS MINIMAL CAPE IS FORECAST ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE HIGHEST 0-6KM SHEAR
RANGING BETWEEN 25KT TO 35KT OVER THE SOUTHWEST. A 80KT 300MB JET
STREAK WILL SLIDE THROUGH NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY...ENHANCING THE VERTICAL MOTION WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
WEST/SOUTHWEST THROUGH FAR SOUTH CENTRAL. AS THIS JET STREAK
TRANSLATES EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...POPS WILL DIMINISH. A
TRANSITORY MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES THROUGH FRIDAY FOR A DRY
PERIOD. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH
WITHIN THE NORTHERN STREAM CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WESTERN ALASKA AND
EXTENDING ALONG THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN. THIS NORTHERN STREAM WILL BECOME
THE DOMINANT FLOW SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS IT RESIDES NEAR/ALONG
THE NORTHERN CONUS AND SOUTHERN CANADA AREA. EXPECT A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...RESULTING IN CONTINUED CHANCES FOR DAILY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING DIFFERENCES ARISE OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THE GFS IS SLOWER RESULTING IN A
DRIER SATURDAY VERSUS THE FASTER ECMWF. BETTER AGREEMENT IS ACTUALLY
REACHED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A STRONGER MID LEVEL LOW AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA NORTHEAST
INTO MANITOBA. THIS COULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
AND POSSIBLE HEAVY PRECIPITATION. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...THOUGH SOME MVFR IS
POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING FROM
KISN/KDIK EASTWARD. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IS AT KDIK AROUND
12Z...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WILL REFINE FOR THE 06Z TAFS.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...AC
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...SCHECK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

716 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...SCHECK
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...SCHECK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

148 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A DRIER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE IN
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH LATE ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WENT VERY CLOSE TO THE HIRESW ARW AND NMM FOR THIS FORECAST
UPDATE. OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN HANDLING THIS SITUATION
WELL AND THE HRRR HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT ENOUGH TO PUT A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN.

DECREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONSIDERABLY FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE NEAR TERM EXCEPT FOR ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE FA. KILN
SOUNDING INDICATED PRETTY DRY LOW LEVELS AND HIGHER CLOUD DECK.
DUE TO THIS PRECIPITATION HAS HAD A HARD TIME REACHING THE GROUND
OR IS VERY LIGHT ACROSS MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF SE PORTIONS OF THE
FA. SOUNDING ALSO INDICATED SOME HIGHER WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE
AND THEREFORE WITH SOME MIXING SOME OF THE WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN
MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25
MPH HAVE BEEN SEEN DUE TO THIS AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE LATE
THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING WILL HELP TO LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT STILL
EXISTS PRIMARILY ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE FA WITH DAMAGING WINDS
THE PRIMARILY THREAT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKS INTO THE REGION. AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR STORM WITH HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF THIS EVENING...BUT
A LINGERING CHANCE MAY PERSIST INTO TONIGHT UNTIL THE 500 MB
TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS EAST OF OUR AREA. AS THE TROUGH PUSHES EAST...WE
WILL GET INTO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...COULD LEAD
TO A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WARMING INTO THE MID 80S FOR WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BY FRIDAY THE RETURN FLOW HAS PICKED UP BRINGING A MORE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE INTO THE AREA. SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION
WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY ANOTHER CDFNT SWINGS INTO THE REGION TO HELP FOCUS THE
MOISTURE AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION. THE FRONT STALLS
AROUND THE OHIO RIVER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SLY FLOW ACROSS THE FRONT
KEEPS CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY.

A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WILL KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF OF HIGH THOSE DAYS. FOR THE
WEEKEND...THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY WILL KEEP HIGHS AROUND
80...WITH A REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR SUNDAY.

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH ONLY A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KDAY. LIMITED ANY THUNDER
MENTION TO A COUPLE HOUR PERIOD OF VCTS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL
MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY TONIGHT PERIOD AS THE
UPPER THROUGH MOVES THROUGH. CIGS MAY BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY DURING THIS TIME.

ANY WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING WILL
DECREASE TONIGHT. HAVE FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AT KILN AND KLUK.
LIMITED FOG TO MVFR AT KILN AND DROPPED KLUK TO IFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...NOVAK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

100 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TO QUEBEC WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
TRAILING THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IT LOOKS LIKE THE RAIN IS FINALLY STARTING TO FILL IN SOME. HAVE
MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECASTS. IT APPEARS THE RAIN WILL
BE THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE SE 1/2 OF THE AREA. NW OHIO
SHOULD DRY OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME SUNSHINE POSSIBLE.

ORIGINAL...RADAR SHOWS RAIN MOVING TOWARDS/INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST HOWEVER STRONGEST CONVECTION REMAINING WELL TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST SO FAR THIS MORNING. PRECIP ACTUALLY SHRINKING AS IT
MOVES INTO THE AREA ALTHOUGH RUC SHOWS INCREASING CONVERGENCE
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
EXPECTING PRECIP TO EXPAND AGAIN INTO THE MORNING WITH MOST AREAS
SEEING AT LEAST SOME RAIN/TSTMS THIS MORNING WITH MORE SCATTERED
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. WENT WITH CAT POPS MOST AREAS. HIGH WILL
REACH THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BY 00Z TUESDAY THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL BE WELL
TO OUR SOUTHEAST HOWEVER MODELS SHOW ANOTHER TROUGH DROPPING
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA THROUGH THE CENTRAL LAKES. BOUNDARY WILL
MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND COULD SPROUT ANOTHER SHOWER OR
TWO ACROSS THE AREA. FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH AS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. WE SHOULD DRY OUT FOR TUESDAY BUT
WEDNESDAY BROUGHT CHANCE POPS BACK AS DEEP WARM ADVECTION OCCURS
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH
CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE
CONTINUITY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH THURSDAY
BEGINNING TO LOOK DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH. TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO LARGE WHOLESALE CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH THIS
PACKAGE. A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA SENDING A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DOWN ITS BACKSIDE TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
BY FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS INDICATE A SURFACE RESPONSE IN THE FORM
OF A CLOSED LOW THAT EVENTUALLY TRACKS ACROSS LAKE ERIE BY
SATURDAY MORNING. AMPLE MIXED LAYER MOISTURE AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION AT THE SFC WILL LEND ITSELF TO CONVECTION FOCUSED NEAR
SFC BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. BY SUNDAY MORNING A DEEP
LAYER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EAST COAST...WITH ITS OUTERMOST
PERIPHERY EXTENDING ACROSS THE LOWER MIDWESTERN STATES. DESPITE
THIS RIDGING THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THEY
WOULD BE MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN.

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...THE INITIAL COLD FRONT
APPEARS ON TRACK TO MOVE SE OF THE AREA BY EVENING WITH A SECOND
COLD FRONT DROPPING ABOUT HALFWAY ACROSS THE AREA BY DAYBREAK THEN
ESE OF THE AREA BY 18Z. WIDESPREAD SCT CONVECTION SHOULD CONSOLIDATE
INTO A MORE NARROW BAND THAT MOVES SE OF THE AREA BY 00Z WITH THE
INITIAL COLD FRONT. THE SECOND FRONT WILL BE WORKING WITH A MORE
STABLE AIRMASS SO MOSTLY JUST SCT SHRA WILL OCCUR WITH THIS FRONT.

SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS CIGS AND VSBYS DROPPING LATE TONIGHT AS TEMPS
COOL THE MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE SHOWS THE
OPPOSITE. THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO WILL TAKE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
APPROACH. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE WEST TO EAST TUE BETWEEN 14Z AND
18Z AS DRIER AIR STARTS TO SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON-VFR WED THRU SAT WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA.

.MARINE...
MONDAY WAVES WILL START OFF IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE IN
THE NEAR SHORE AND COULD BRIEFLY BUILD TO NEAR SCA IN THE EASTERN
BASIN BEFORE SUBSIDING AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
CLOSELY...BUT FOR NOW THINKING FLOW REGIME ISN`T OPTIMAL FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET DESPITE THE BREEZY
CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE ON THE LAKE...TO INCLUDE THE OPEN
WATERS...WAVES WILL GENERALLY BE 1 TO 3 FEET. LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LE AND THE WIND WILL BECOME
WEST...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 TO 15 KNOTS...BEFORE SWITCHING BACK
FROM THE SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE LATE
THURSDAY...BUT THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND WAVES WILL GENERALLY BE
AROUND A FOOT.

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...MAYERS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

1119 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY BREEZE TODAY. A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
SINKS TO OUR SOUTH ON TUESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1100 AM UPDATE...UPDATED POP GRIDS USING A MIX OF HRRR AND 12Z
NAM. TRIED TO SHOW TWO AREAS OF ENHANCED POPS...FIRST WITH THE
LINE CURRENTLY ENTERING WESTERN CWA...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA
TIED TO THE UPPER VORT MAX FOR LATER AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
ALSO ADDED GUSTY WIND AND HEAVY RAIN MENTION TO WEATHER GRIDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TOWARDS AND THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. GOOD
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP TODAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OUT AHEAD AND WITH THE
FRONT AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH HEATING TODAY. SOME OF THESES
STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...AS CAPE AND MOISTURE INCREASES...ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE FRONT. FRONT EXITS THE AREA BY 12Z
TUESDAY.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXITING...DYNAMIC FORCING ALSO DEPARTS
LEAVING ONLY A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION FROM DAYTIME
HEATING AND A COLDER POOL OF AIR ALOFT WITH 500MB TEMPS DROPPING IN
THE 4-6C RANGE. THE COOLER AIRMASS OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY WILL
BE SHORT LIVED...WITH THE SURFACE FLOW TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY ONCE
AGAIN FOR MID WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL
STALL THERE...WELL NORTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR. KEEP THE POPS
CONFINED TO A COUPLE OF TIERS OF COUNTIES SOUTH OF THE PBZ CWA
BORDER.

AS THICKNESSES INCREASE AFTER TUESDAY...850MB TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 20C...SUGGESTING SURFACE READINGS
IN THE LOWLANDS WILL REACH THE 90F MARK. THIS IS A CONSERVATIVE
FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING. IF RAINFALL COVERAGE/AMOUNTS ARE NOT
VERY GOOD TODAY...THE DRY GROUND WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL HEATING
REQUIRING HIGHER VALUES IN THE MAX FORECAST ON THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE IN THE EXTENDED. LITTLE CHANGES WERE
MADE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. PATTERN WILL FEATURE SERIES OF
WEAKER SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. AS MOISTURE INCREASES
AGAIN...IT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR
ABOVE NORMAL.

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA THIS TODAY.
MVFR TO IFR CONVECTION AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TODAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THEM. MVFR TO IFR CONVECTION WILL COVER MUCH
OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD VARY
ON TODAY.

.AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN POST RAIN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/26
NEAR TERM...JS/MZ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JB
AVIATION...JS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

1117 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WAS TO OUR WEST EARLIER
HAS ALMOST COMPLETELY FIZZLED. THERE IS REDEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY
ONGOING TOWARDS OUR SOUTHWEST ALONG THE OLD OUTFLOW FROM THE LINE.
HIGH RES MODELS CAPTURED THE INITIAL TREND OF THE WEAKENING OF THE
LINE PRETTY WELL BUT HAVE PERFORMED POORLY AS WHAT TO DO WITH THE
LINE ONCE IT WEAKENED. STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR LOUISVILLE
ARE PUSHING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AND WILL APPROACH KCVG/ KLUK
BETWEEN 730 - 830 AM. COVERAGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON. GIVEN PWATS NEARING 1.80" AND K INDEX VALUES IN THE MID
30S THIS MAKES SENSE. OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THOUGH ON THE
EXACT TIMING AND COVERAGE OF DEVELOPMENT.

PRECIPITATION THEN LOOKS TO COME TO AN END LATE TONIGHT EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. TUESDAY
MORNING PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PARTICULAR AT THE NORMAL
PROBLEM SITE OF KLUK. NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW IFR
CIGS DEVELOPING TUESDAY MORNING. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT A HINT OF MVFR
CIGS IN THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...HAINES

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

931 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DECREASE AHEAD OF A NEAR STATIONARY
COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHES ACROSS WESTERN ILLINOIS. CURRENTLY ALL
SITES ARE VFR. EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING WITH ISOLATED THUNDER. MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MVFR
CIGS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WHICH SEEMS AGGRESSIVE GIVEN THE LULL IN
ACTIVITY ACROSS OHIO. TIMING OF THE -RA AND VCSH/TS IN THE TAFS
WILL MOST CERTAINLY NEED FINETUNING THROUGH THE MORNING AS SHOWERS
EVOLVE.

OUTLOOK...ISOLATED NON-VFR TUE WITH BR. NON-VFR AGAIN ON WED AND
FRI WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...MAYERS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

636 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...LOWERED POPS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING
ALTHOUGH NO CHANGE TO THE ZONES.

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND CENTRAL MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS ARE NOW BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN OHIO ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE. WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE
WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. GREATEST CHANCES OF VCTS WILL BE
AT WESTERN TERMINALS THIS MORNING. BY AND LARGE ANY RA OR TS WILL
BE VFR. HOWEVER...VIS WILL LIKELY DROP TO MVFR WITH BR AROUND
9-12Z. NOT EXPECTING VIS TO DROP MUCH LOWER GIVEN THE STRONG TO
GUSTY WIND. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CARRY ON UNTIL LATE MONDAY. BY
THEN MVFR CIGS AND VIS WILL SETTLE IN UNTIL POST FRONTAL PASSAGE
TUESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WED AND
AGAIN LATER ON FRIDAY.

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...MAYERS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

428 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG THE I-71 CORRIDOR IS EVIDENT ON RADAR
EARLY THIS MORNING. WE HAVE SEEN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POP UP ALONG IT IN THE PAST HOUR OR SO...ESPECIALLY IN THE
COLUMBUS AREA. MEANWHILE WITH THE BOUNDARY WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE
PCPN ACROSS INDIANA...CONVECTIVE TRENDS HAVE BEEN DECREASING OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS BACK TO OUR WEST AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING. AS A RESULT...HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS
FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

A STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH DOWN ACROSS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...HELPING TO DRIVE
THE COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO OUR AREA. GOOD SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL SOME BETTER MOISTURE
UP INTO THE MID OHIO VALLEY WITH PWS RISING UP TO AROUND 2 INCHES
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITIES WILL BE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER TODAY...BUT
ASSUMING WE CAN AT LEAST GET SOME MODERATE INSTABILITIES...PLENTY
OF FORCING WILL BE PRESET FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. INCREASING DEEPER LAYER SHEAR THROUGH
THE DAY WILL SUPPORT A SEVERE RISK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF OUR FA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE PRIMARY
THREATS TO BE DAMAGING WIND AND HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT WITH GOOD LOW
LEVEL SHEAR ALSO IN PLACE...THERE WILL ALSO BE AN ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS
THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AND WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE
TERMINALS. CURRENT THINKING IS FOR THE CHANCE OF THUNDER TO BE
LIMITED TO KDAY/ KCVG/ KLUK. FURTHER TOWARDS THE EAST THEY SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY SHOWER BASED. THE NEW RAP ACTUALLY WEAKENS THE LINE
ENOUGH TO WHERE KDAY ONLY GETS THUNDER. DURING THE DAY TODAY
REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY. A LOT IS
DEPENDENT ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS FIRST WAVE THIS MORNING. IF
MORE PRECIP OCCURS THAN EXPECTED IT MIGHT TAKE LONGER FOR THE
ATMOSPHERE TO RECHARGE. IF THERE IS LESS COVERAGE THAN EXPECTED
REDEVELOPMENT MIGHT OCCUR SOONER. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT WITH CURRENT
THINKING IN TAF PACKAGE.

OUTLOOK...IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...HAINES

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

420 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
RADAR SHOWS RAIN MOVING TOWARDS/INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
HOWEVER STRONGEST CONVECTION REMAINING WELL TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST SO FAR THIS MORNING. PRECIP ACTUALLY SHRINKING AS IT
MOVES INTO THE AREA ALTHOUGH RUC SHOWS INCREASING CONVERGENCE
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
EXPECTING PRECIP TO EXPAND AGAIN INTO THE MORNING WITH MOST AREAS
SEEING AT LEAST SOME RAIN/TSTMS THIS MORNING WITH MORE SCATTERED
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. WENT WITH CAT POPS MOST AREAS. HIGH WILL
REACH THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BY 00Z TUESDAY THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL BE WELL
TO OUR SOUTHEAST HOWEVER MODELS SHOW ANOTHER TROUGH DROPPING
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA THROUGH THE CENTRAL LAKES. BOUNDARY WILL
MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND COULD SPROUT ANOTHER SHOWER OR
TWO ACROSS THE AREA. FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH AS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. WE SHOULD DRY OUT FOR TUESDAY BUT
WEDNESDAY BROUGHT CHANCE POPS BACK AS DEEP WARM ADVECTION OCCURS
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH
CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE
CONTINUITY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH THURSDAY
BEGINNING TO LOOK DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH. TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WED AND
AGAIN LATER ON FRIDAY.

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...MAYERS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

110 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND IT ON TUESDAY. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DRAPE ITSELF
OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
STORMS IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL WEAKEN AS
THEY HEAD EAST. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE
IN THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT WEAKENING TRENDS SIMILAR TO THE FIRST
WAVE. SO SEVERE THREAT LOOKS LOW. BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME HEAVIER
RAIN IN SOME OF THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES WHICH COULD LEAD TO A MINOR
FLOOD THREAT.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
STORMS NORTHWEST OF I-71 CORRIDOR WILL EXPERIENCE A SOUTHEASTWARD
PUSH IN THE LATE MORNING AS THE H5 TROUGH DIGS IN THE WESTERN OHIO
VALLEY AND HELPS PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA IN THE LATER
AFTERNOON. STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND MAYBE
SOME WET MICROBURSTS GIVEN ENOUGH SPEED SHEAR DURING THE MORNING
HOURS.

VERY LITTLE IS NOTED AFTER 0Z IN CWA. THE BACK EDGE OF STORMS
SHOULD BE AROUND A MAYSVILLE/CHILLICOTHE LINE OR EVEN FURTHER
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS PIKETON OR PORTSMOUTH. SOME POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE COLD AIR IN THE EVENING BUT THE LIONS
SHARE OF RAIN WILL BE DONE BY EVENING. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE MUTED
DUE TO THE RAIN AND ONLY TOP OUT IN THE 70S...WITH A FEW LOWER 80S
POSSIBLE TOWARDS SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN KENTUCKY. THIS IS DEPENDENT ON NOT GETTING ANY OF THE
STORMS UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT ON TUESDAY AND HIGHS WILL TOP OUT WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
80. OVERNIGHT LOWS MON NIGHT AND TUES NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER
60S.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. THE RIDGE SLIPS SE INTO THE APPALACHIANS DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO
NORTHERN OHIO BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS TO KEEP
WEDNESDAY DRY AND DROP A LOW CHANCE OF CONVECTION INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE FA THURSDAY...BUT
UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS WEAK...SO ONLY EXPECT ISOLATED CHANCE OF
CONVECTION.

BY FRIDAY THE RETURN FLOW HAS PICKED UP BRINGING A MORE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE INTO THE AREA. SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS COMPRESSIONAL
HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT PUSHES HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S. A FEW
MORE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF OF HIGH THOSE DAYS. FOR THE WEEKEND...THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY WILL KEEP HIGHS AROUND 80...WITH A
REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR SUNDAY.

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS
THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AND WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE
TERMINALS. CURRENT THINKING IS FOR THE CHANCE OF THUNDER TO BE
LIMITED TO KDAY/ KCVG/ KLUK. FURTHER TOWARDS THE EAST THEY SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY SHOWER BASED. THE NEW RAP ACTUALLY WEAKENS THE LINE
ENOUGH TO WHERE KDAY ONLY GETS THUNDER. DURING THE DAY TODAY
REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY. A LOT IS
DEPENDENT ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS FIRST WAVE THIS MORNING. IF
MORE PRECIP OCCURS THAN EXPECTED IT MIGHT TAKE LONGER FOR THE
ATMOSPHERE TO RECHARGE. IF THERE IS LESS COVERAGE THAN EXPECTED
REDEVELOPMENT MIGHT OCCUR SOONER. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT WITH CURRENT
THINKING IN TAF PACKAGE.

OUTLOOK...IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...HAINES

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

654 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY...AND AND MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY. AFTER
SOME DRY WEATHER FOR MIDWEEK...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY LATE WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE MOST ORGANIZED SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY AS OF 4 AM. ACTIVITY TRAILING BACK INTO SWRN PA
IS MORE WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE. WHAT I TRIED TO DEPICT IN MY
NEAR TERM FORECAST IS FOR THIS AREA OF SHOWERS TO CLEAR MY
EASTERN ZONES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...LEAVING THE MORNING MAINLY
DRY OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.

THE WARM FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE LAURELS AT THIS HOUR WITH A
GUSTY WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. MOISTURE IS INCREASING WITH
PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5" ALREADY MOVING INTO CENTRAL PA. DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 60S ARE SURGING NE INTO EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN PA IN
THE AXIS OF 40-50KT LLJ.

THE HRRR KEEPS THE SHOWERS MOVING EAST AND HAS THEM ENDING IN MY
EASTERN ZONES BY AROUND 6-7 AM. THIS THEN LEAVES MOST OF THE AREA
DRY FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE NEW CONVECTION MOVES INTO NWRN PA. HRRR
SHOWS THIS BY MID MORNING BUT I AM ALWAYS LEARY OF MODEL
INITIATION TIMING...ESPECIALLY GIVEN HOW WEAK THE UPSTREAM
ACTIVITY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL OHIO LOOKS AT THIS TIME.

LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...THE WARM FRONT WILL HAVE
MOVED INTO EASTERN PA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME BREAKS DEVELOPING
IN THE WARM SECTOR ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF DIABATIC HEATING IN
THE PARTIAL SUNSHINE. MODELS THEN SHOW FAIRLY RAPID
DESTABILIZATION OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS.

THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BECOME ACTIVE GIVEN THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT
OF MODERATE CAPE AND STRONG WIND SHEAR. SPC HAS THE AREA UNDER A
SLIGHT RISK WITH THE ONLY POSSIBLE MITIGATING FACTOR BEING HOW
MUCH SUNSHINE WE CAN MANAGE. THE SHORT RANGE HIGH RES GUIDANCE
GOES FURTHER AND SUGGESTS A POCKET OF MODERATE TO STRONG LOW LEVEL
HELICITY FOLLOWS THE WARM FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN PA
SUGGESTING IF WE CAN GET SOME DISCRETE SUPERCELLS...AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

ANOTHER RISK WILL BE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS LATER TODAY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS THE TAIL OF THE POTENT UPPER JET ENTRANCE REGION
SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA. PWAT ANOMALIES OF 1-3 STD DEV ABOVE
NORMAL WILL BE IN PLACE. AS THE SLOW MOVING FRONT EDGES SOUTH IN
THE TROPICAL AIRMASS...TRAINING OF CONVECTION WILL BECOME A
CONCERN. NO REAL AREA STICKS OUT AT THE MOMENT AS THE MOST LIKELY.
IT WILL DEPEND A LOT ON MESO BOUNDARIES AND THE PROGRESS OF THE
SLOW MOVING LARGE SCALE FRONTAL SYSTEM.

THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS SHOULD PRESENT PLENTY OF THREATS TO KEEP US
BUSY.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH ON TUESDAY...KEEPING THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE/PWATS ARE FORECAST TO HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE REGION BY
EARLY IN THE DAY SO THE POTENT TROUGH WILL BE WORKING ON AN
INCREASINGLY DRY AIRMASS. HIGHS IN THE LOWERS 70S TO LOWER 80S
FROM NW TO SE WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL FOR
EARLY JUNE.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AFTER THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES BY LATER TUESDAY...NAEFSBC SHOWS
UPPER HEIGHTS REBOUNDING OVER THE EASTERN US SUGGESTING A
RESURGENCE OF WARMTH AND EARLY SUMMER HUMIDITY. A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES ARE SHOWN IN THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SHEARING OUT AS
THEY SKIRT THE AREA TO THE NORTH...RE-INTRODUCING THE LOW CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS FROM ABOUT THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD.

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO BIG CHANGES EXPECTED FOR 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

BULK OF THE FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY EAST OF OUR AREA NOW.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN A FEW SPOTS...MAINLY NEAR LAKE
ERIE...AND FAR SW.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

DIGGING MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A BROAD LOW
LEVEL JET INCREASING OVER PA LATE THIS EVENING. 850/500MB FLOW
FROM THE SW...BUT 925MB JET ORIENTATION MORE FROM THE SOUTH WITH
A LOCAL MAX OVER THE SUSQ VALLEY. THIS CONFIGURATION WILL BRING
A BREEZY OVERNIGHT TO RIDGETOPS AND CREATE A LOCAL EFFECT IN KIPT
RESULTING IN WINDS FROM AN UNUSUAL DIRECTION...THE SOUTH...AT
SPEEDS NEAR 20 MPH GUSTING AROUND 30 MPH. SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH
A BIT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST. OTHER
THAN BFD...MUCH OF THE MORNING MAY NOT FEATURE MUCH...AS
THE MAIN TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE NORTH OF LAKE
ERIE...AND FURTHER SW ACROSS THE OH VLY AT THE CURRENT TIME.

THE MAIN ACTION MAY BE LATE TODAY INTO TUE...AS THE TROUGH
DEEPENS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...MVFR WITH MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
VFR LATER PART OF THE DAY.
WED...NO SIG WX.
THU...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FRI...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...WATSON/LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

530 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS SHOULD PRESENT PLENTY OF THREATS TO KEEP US
BUSY.

TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD.

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BULK OF THE FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY EAST OF OUR AREA NOW. LONE HEAVY SHOWER JUST BRUSHING THE
STATE COLLEGE AREA. CIGS STILL GOOD IN MOST LOCATIONS. 09Z TAFS
SENT.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

DIGGING MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A BROAD LOW
LEVEL JET INCREASING OVER PA LATE THIS EVENING. 850/500MB FLOW
FROM THE SW...BUT 925MB JET ORIENTATION MORE FROM THE SOUTH WITH A
LOCAL MAX OVER THE SUSQ VALLEY. THIS CONFIGURATION WILL BRING A
BREEZY OVERNIGHT TO RIDGETOPS AND CREATE A LOCAL EFFECT IN KIPT
RESULTING IN WINDS FROM AN UNUSUAL DIRECTION...THE SOUTH...AT
SPEEDS NEAR 20 MPH GUSTING AROUND 30 MPH. SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH A
BIT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THE MAIN ACTION MAY BE LATE TODAY INTO TUE...AS THE TROUGH
DEEPENS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...MVFR WITH MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
VFR LATER PART OF THE DAY.
WED...NO SIG WX.
THU...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FRI...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...WATSON/LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

510 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY...AND AND MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY. AFTER
SOME DRY WEATHER FOR MIDWEEK...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY LATE WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

THE MOST ORGANIZED SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY AS OF 4 AM. ACTIVITY TRAILING BACK INTO SWRN PA
IS MORE WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE. WHAT I TRIED TO DEPICT IN MY
NEAR TERM FORECAST IS FOR THIS AREA OF SHOWERS TO CLEAR MY
EASTERN ZONES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...LEAVING THE MORNING MAINLY
DRY OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.

THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS SHOULD PRESENT PLENTY OF THREATS TO KEEP US
BUSY.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH ON TUESDAY...KEEPING THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE/PWATS ARE FORECAST TO HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE REGION BY
EARLY IN THE DAY SO THE POTENT TROUGH WILL BE WORKING ON AN
INCREASINGLY DRY AIRMASS. HIGHS IN THE LOWERS 70S TO LOWER 80S
FROM NW TO SE WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL FOR
EARLY JUNE.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

AFTER THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES BY LATER TUESDAY...NAEFSBC SHOWS
UPPER HEIGHTS REBOUNDING OVER THE EASTERN US SUGGESTING A
RESURGENCE OF WARMTH AND EARLY SUMMER HUMIDITY. A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES ARE SHOWN IN THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SHEARING OUT AS
THEY SKIRT THE AREA TO THE NORTH...RE-INTRODUCING THE LOW CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS FROM ABOUT THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD.

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DIGGING MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A BROAD LOW
LEVEL JET INCREASING OVER PA LATE THIS EVENING. 850/500MB FLOW
FROM THE SW...BUT 925MB JET ORIENTATION MORE FROM THE SOUTH WITH A
LOCAL MAX OVER THE SUSQ VALLEY. THIS CONFIGURATION WILL BRING A
BREEZY OVERNIGHT TO RIDGETOPS AND CREATE A LOCAL EFFECT IN KIPT
RESULTING IN WINDS FROM AN UNUSUAL DIRECTION...THE SOUTH...AT
SPEEDS NEAR 20 MPH GUSTING AROUND 30 MPH. SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH A
BIT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THE MAIN ACTION MAY BE LATE TODAY INTO TUE...AS THE TROUGH
DEEPENS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...MVFR WITH MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
VFR LATER PART OF THE DAY.
WED...NO SIG WX.
THU...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FRI...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

157 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY AND TAKE UNTIL LATE TUESDAY TO CLEAR THE REGION.
AFTER SOME DRY WEATHER FOR MIDWEEK...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY LATE WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE FIRST SHOWERS ARE WORKING ACROSS MY WESTERN ZONES AS OF 1 AM
OUT AHEAD OF A SUBTLE WARM FROM THAT EXTENDS ALONG A LINE FROM
EAST OF ERIE DOWN EAST OF PITTSBURGH. MOISTURE IS COMING UP
QUICKLY WITH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5" ALREADY INTO WESTERN PA.
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S ARE SURGING NE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY IN
THE AXIS OF 40-50KT LLJ.

THE HRRR KEEPS THE SHOWERS MOVING EAST INTO THE STILL RELATIVELY
STABLE AIRMASS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...SHOWING A
BREAK IN THE ACTION TOWARD MORNING. WILL SPEND THE BULK OF THE
NEXT NEAR/SHORT TERM UPDATE TRYING TO FINE TUNE WHAT LOOKS LIKE AT
LEAST A COUPLE OF SEPARATE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
WHAT LOOKS TO BE EVOLVING INTO A RATHER COMPLEX FORECAST.

FROM EARLIER...

NR TERM MDL DATA INDICATES A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL MARCH ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL PA BTWN 04Z-11Z IN ASSOC W/BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT
AT NOSE OF LL JET. RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH ALONG AXIS OF HIGHEST PWATS. MINS
TONIGHT WILL BE QUITE MILD WEST...RANGING THROUGH THE M60S UNDER
CLOUD COVER. ACROSS THE EAST...MORE BINOVC WILL ALLOW BETTER
COOLING WITH MINS DROPPING INTO THE L60S.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
MONDAY IS STILL LOOKING LIKE THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER DAY OF THE
NEXT SEVERAL AS MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS COUPLED WITH SLOW
MOVING FRONT PRODUCES A SEVERE AND/OR HEAVY RAIN THREAT ACROSS A
LARGE PART OF CENTRAL PA.

BY 12Z MON...A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GLAKS...WITH PW GREATER THAN 1.5" IN
A PLUME FROM CENTRAL OHIO THROUGH NEARLY ALL OF PA. THIS WAVE
MOVES THROUGH WRN PA AND INTO CENTRAL PA AT THE TIME OF MAX
HEATING...PUSHING A LINE OF STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS ACROSS
THE REGION. CENTRAL PA IS PAINTED INTO DAY 2 SLGT RISK FOR THIS
AND CONCUR...COULD BE THE BEST SETUP SO FAR THIS YEAR FOR
SEVERE...AND TRAINING CELLS MAY LEAD TO LOCAL HEAVY RAINERS.
AS PREVIOUS SHIFT ADDED...MODELS GENERATE IMPRESSIVE AMOUNTS OF
CAPE AND WIND SHEAR UNDER THE STRONG JET ENTRANCE REGION THAT
INTENSIFIES AS IT SWINGS THROUGH SRN CANADA. MODELS CONT TO
GENERATE A BROAD AREA OF NEGATIVE ABS VORTICITY UNDER THE STRONG
JET ENTRANCE REGION...OFTEN A GOOD INDICATION OF THE INSTABILITY
GENERATED BY THE MODELS.

THIS ACTIVITY WILL LAST WELL INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE RICH PLUME
OF PW IS NUDGED TO THE PEIDMONT REGION BY 12Z TUE AND OFFSHORE.
TRAILING VIGOROUS H5 TROF DIGS IN ON THE BACKSIDE...PROVIDING THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS DESPITE DECREASING DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME TUESDAY.

HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD REACH THE LOW 70S NORTH TO THE
LOW 80S SOUTH. MINS MON NIGHT WILL BE MILD ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE
SOUTHEAST REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WHILE THE NORTHWEST
DROPS TO AROUND 60.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE UPR LVL TROF PASSING
OVER CENTRAL PA AT 00Z WED AND THEN MOVING OFF THE COAST OVER
NIGHT WITH A SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN. THIS WOULD INDICATE A CLEARING
PATTER BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS ALREADY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
FLATTENING ANY UPR LVL RIDGING AND PROBABLY ALLOWING SOME HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL PA. ALSO PATCHY FOG MAY FORM
OVERNIGHT.

BOTH GFS/ECMWF IN AGREEMENT WED WITH NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKE REGION AND BRINING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION NW
ZONES BY LATE IN THE DAY. AT THIS POINT THE MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE. THE ECMWF HANGS THE FRONT UP ALONG THE NY/PA BORDER WED
NIGHT AND DROPS IT A LITTLE SOUTH TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY E-W
THROUGH CENTRAL PA. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE ADVANCING THE
FRONT SE THROUGH THE STATE INTO THU WHERE IT BECOMES HUNG UP OVER
THE SOUTHERN PA BORDER. WPC COMPROMISES BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS
AND CLIMATOLOGY SAYS THAT WITH ONLY A WEAK 1017 HIGH BEHIND THE
FRONT IT WOULD LIKELY HANG UP ACROSS CENTRAL PA. THIS CREATES SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN MAX TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. WENT WITH GUIDANCE BUT
CONCERNED ABOUT THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND ITS EFFECT ON CLOUDS
AND POPS WHICH COULD LOWER THE MAX TEMPS. GUIDANCE HAS TEMPS
REACHING UP TO 90 IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

BY FRIDAY BOTH MODELS INDICATE A GULF MOISTURE TAP IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM WITH HIGHER PWATS MOVING NORTH UP THE WESTERN
SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS AND EVENTUALLY OVERRUNNING THE OLD
STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN PA. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS...CAP MAX
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S BUT WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY AND INCREASE THE
CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY CONVECTION. ECMWF AND GFS SWEEP A
COLD FRONT THROUGH WITH A PRETTY DEEP LOW DEVELOPING FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR OVER THE GREAT LAKE REGION MOVING NORTHEAST TO NOVA
SCOTIA BY SUNDAY. THIS WOULD GIVE PA A NICE DAY SUNDAY.

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DIGGING MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A BROAD LOW
LEVEL JET INCREASING OVER PA LATE THIS EVENING. 850/500MB FLOW
FROM THE SW...BUT 925MB JET ORIENTATION MORE FROM THE SOUTH WITH A
LOCAL MAX OVER THE SUSQ VALLEY. THIS CONFIGURATION WILL BRING A
BREEZY OVERNIGHT TO RIDGETOPS AND CREATE A LOCAL EFFECT IN KIPT
RESULTING IN WINDS FROM AN UNUSUAL DIRECTION...THE SOUTH...AT
SPEEDS NEAR 20 MPH GUSTING AROUND 30 MPH. SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH A
BIT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THE MAIN ACTION MAY BE LATE TODAY INTO TUE...AS THE TROUGH
DEEPENS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...MVFR WITH MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
VFR LATER PART OF THE DAY.
WED...NO SIG WX.
THU...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FRI...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...WATSON
AVIATION...MARTIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

131 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY AND TAKE UNTIL LATE TUESDAY TO CLEAR THE REGION.
AFTER SOME DRY WEATHER FOR MIDWEEK...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY LATE WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

THE FIRST SHOWERS ARE WORKING ACROSS MY WESTERN ZONES AS OF 1 AM
OUT AHEAD OF A SUBTLE WARM FROM THAT EXTENDS ALONG A LINE FROM
EAST OF ERIE DOWN EAST OF PITTSBURGH. MOISTURE IS COMING UP
QUICKLY WITH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5" ALREADY INTO WESTERN PA.
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S ARE SURGING NE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY IN
THE AXIS OF 40-50KT LLJ.

FROM EARLIER...

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DIGGING MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A BROAD LOW
LEVEL JET INCREASING OVER PA LATE THIS EVENING. 850/500MB FLOW
FROM THE SW...BUT 925MB JET ORIENTATION MORE FROM THE SOUTH WITH A
LOCAL MAX OVER THE SUSQ VALLEY. THIS CONFIGURATION WILL BRING A
BREEZY OVERNIGHT TO RIDGETOPS AND CREATE A LOCAL EFFECT IN KIPT
RESULTING IN WINDS FROM AN UNUSUAL DIRECTION...THE SOUTH...AT
SPEEDS NEAR 20 MPH GUSTING AROUND 30 MPH. SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH A
BIT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

AS NOSE OF MAIN LL JET CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST...
SHOWERS /WITH LOW CHANCES FOR ISO TSTMS/ FROM A DECAYING MCS
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NW MTNS AROUND MIDNIGHT AND POTENTIALLY SPREAD
EASTWARD MAINLY NORTH OF I-80 LATE NIGHT. LATEST HRRR INDICATES
ISO/SCT SHOWER POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF CWA AS WELL DURING
LATE NIGHT HOURS...BUT SHOULDN/T IMPACT CIGS/VSBY EXCEPT LOCALLY.
HOWEVER...CIG RESTRICTIONS ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER NE PA INTO
KBGM-KELM...AND THESE WILL SPREAD INTO CENTRAL PA IMPACTING MOST
LOCALES OUTSIDE THE LOWER SUSQ DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS THROUGH
MID MORNING.

MON WILL BECOME ACTIVE AS SLOW MOVING FRONT INTERACTS WITH DEEP
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY/STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY WITH LLWS LIKELY...LINGERING INTO LATE
MONDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MON...COLD FRONT IN VCTY WITH SHRA/TSRA AND POSS REDUCTIONS.
TUE...MVFR WITH MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VFR LATER
PART OF THE DAY.
WED...NO SIG WX.
THU...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FRI...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...WATSON
AVIATION...RXR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SIOUX FALLS SD

612 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING IS STILL IN QUESTION. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO LOOK OVERDONE
WITH JUST A QUESTION ON WHETHER IT IS OVERDONE OR WAY OVERDONE. ALSO
SOME OF THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT GOING WESTERLY
RAISES CONVERGENCE QUESTIONS. FOR THE MOMENT WILL PLAN ON KEEPING
COVERAGE LOW BUT NOT TAKING OUT. ALSO...FOR NOW AM KEEPING A SLIGHT
MENTION EAST CENTRAL TO AN HOUR OR TWO PAST SUNSET...BUT GIVEN THE
FRONTAL MOVEMENT SEEMING A TAD STRONGER AND FASTER THAN BEFORE
DURING THIS TIME...WONDER IF THERE WILL BE ANYTHING LEFT ASSUMING
THERE IS SOMETHING TO START WITH.

LATE TONIGHT WILL BRING PRETTY CLEAR SKIES AND COOLING TEMPERATURES
WITH 60 TO 65 LOWS. FOR WEDNESDAY STILL PLAN ON A FAIRLY SUNNY START
WITH A CLOUD INCREASE STARTING SLOWLY...AND NOT REALLY PICKING UP
STEAM UNTIL MID AFTERNOON OUT WEST...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS STARTING LATE AFTERNOON OUT THERE AS THE EXPECTED WET
SYSTEM APPROACHES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STAY GENERALLY IN THE 80
TO 85 RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015

HEAVY RAINFALL FROM LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
REMAINS AT THE FOREFRONT OF CONCERN IN THE MEDIUM RANGE. AIRMASS
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SATURATED WITH INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM
DISSIPATED PACIFIC TROPICAL SYSTEM...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
LIKELY IN THE 1.5 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE ON THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL JET
WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF SYSTEM PUSHING OUT OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES...ESPECIALLY BY LATER NIGHT. WHILE MUCH OF THE
EVENING SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET..WILL START TO GET A BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY TOWARD 06Z...
AND BECOMING WIDESPREAD SOUTH OF I-90 LATE NIGHT. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY SETTLES IN A 400-800 J/KG WHICH COULD SUGGEST A
MARGINAL LARGE HAIL THREAT INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY LATE NIGHT OR
EARLY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE
THURSDAY PERIOD APPEARS SECONDARY TO RAINFALL THREAT...WITH BEST
CHANCE FOR SEVERE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERN CWA WHERE
SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH NORTHWARD BY LATER
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF SURFACE WAVE. TRACK OF LEVEL WAVE AND LOCATION
OF THE LOWER TO MID LEVEL GRADIENTS/LOW LEVEL JET CONVERGENCE
CERTAINLY POINTS TOWARD A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. WPC IN THE LAST 15 MINUTES HAS UPDATED
TO PLACE MUCH OF THE EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN CWA IN SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM 12Z THU TO 12Z FRI...AND EVEN A MODERATE
RISK IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST AROUND SPENCER/STORM LAKE/IDA GROVE.

WITH AS MUCH IMPACT AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONVECTION COULD HAVE ON
EVENTUAL SET UP OF PREFERRED PRECIPITATION LOCATION ON THURSDAY...
HAVE COORDINATED WITH NEIGHBORS AND DECIDED NOT TO YET ISSUE A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH. AT THIS TIME...A FAIRLY STRONG DIVERSITY IN
SOLUTIONS OF WHERE GREATEST PRECIPITATION AXIS WILL OCCUR...

WITH NUMEROUS AREA HAVING SOME DEGREE OF HEAVIER RAINFALL
LATELY...AND CONSISTENCY OF A REGIONAL HEAVY RAIN SIGNATURE...
WOULD BELIEVE A WATCH WOULD BE ALMOST CERTAIN WITH THE NEXT MAIN
FORECAST PACKAGE.

THERE SHOULD BE A TIME WHERE THINGS DRY OUT ACROSS THE AREA FROM
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS MEAN RIDGING TAKES A WEAK GRIP ON THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. GFS/ECMWF ARE A BIT QUICKER IN EXITING SYSTEM ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW SYSTEM EXITS
REQUIRED MAINTAINING A MEAGER CHANCE EARLY FRIDAY IN THE EAST.
FLOW TRENDS AGAIN TOWARD SOUTHWEST ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
AND ANOTHER BROAD WAVE CREEPING NORTHEASTWARD SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. SHEAR NOR INSTABILITY APPEAR TO BE OF
GREAT CONCERN...SO AT THIS POINT NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE THREAT. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK TOWARD SEASONABLY WARM
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND PERHAPS FLATTENING OF RIDGE BY
SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND PRESENCE OF A WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE BOTH PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THREAT OF
SEVERE STORMS AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 612 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015

LINE OF SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHEAST OF KHON BY 0000Z...THUS HAVE NO MENTION
OF THUNDER FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE. GIVEN THAT THE STORMS AT LEAST
TO SOME EXTENT ARE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...THINK THEY WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AS THEY HEAD SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND OPTED TO NOT
INCLUDE ANY THUNDER IN KFSD TAF FOR NOW. WILL MONITOR TRENDS
CLOSELY THOUGH...WITH MOST FAVORED TIME FOR STORMS APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST 0130Z-0300Z IF STORMS DO HOLD TOGETHER.

AFTER THE LINE DISSIPATES/EXITS THE AREA...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BEYOND THE END OF THIS TAF
PERIOD.

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...JH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS ABERDEEN SD

1240 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1041 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES ALTHOUGH DID ADD ISOLD CONVECTION TO THE
NORTHEAST CWA GIVEN LATEST HRRR OUTPUT...PLUS TEMPS ARE STILL COLD
ALOFT OVER THAT REGION. UPDATES ALREADY ISSUED.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

A FEW STUBBORN LIGHT SHOWERS ARE DRIFTING OUT OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA THIS AM. THE MAIN STORY IS THE HEAT
HOWEVER. WARM ADVECTION IN THE MID LEVELS AND WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL RESULT IN EFFICIENT MIXING. AMPLE SUN IS EXPECTED FOR THE
MOST PART WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT...HOWEVER PROFILES INDICATE
SOME ELEVATED SHALLOW/SKINNY CAPE...SUGGESTING SOME HIGH BASED CU.

700MB TEMPERATURES PEAK AROUND +10C BY TUESDAY...WITH BUFKIT
PROFILES MIXING TO AROUND THAT HEIGHT. MIXED DOWN TEMPERATURES YIELD
READINGS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S...THOUGH PROFILES AGAIN INDICATE SOME
ELEVATED CAPE/THUNDER. WILL ALSO SEE A SURFACE TROF PASS THROUGH THE
CWA MID DAY...WHICH WILL ONLY AID IN MIXING.

A COOLER...CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL UNDER CUT THE WARMER AIR ALOFT FOR
WEDNESDAY. MID LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT CUT OFF LOW
THAT TRAVERSES THE ROCKIES WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN CWA BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY REMAIN WITH MODELS WITH THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA DROPPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WAA SHOWERS AND STORMS NORTH OF THIS LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SPREADING EAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS RAINFALL
WILL BE TRICKY WITH THE FAR NORTHERN CWA MAYBE RECEIVING LESS
RAINFALL. THE GFS HAD LESS QPF THAN THE EC. KEPT WITH THE HIGH
CHANCES OF RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS LIKE IT
SHOULD DRY OUT LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF THE REGION WAS SHOWN TO CLOSE OFF AND NOW LIFT INTO AND ACROSS
OUR REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY LOOKS TO
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM. SUNDAY MAY
END UP BEING DRY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL ON THURSDAY WITH THE RAIN AND CLOUDS WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. HIGHS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...TMT/TDK
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...TMT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS ABERDEEN SD

1043 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES ALTHOUGH DID ADD ISOLD CONVECTION TO THE
NORTHEAST CWA GIVEN LATEST HRRR OUTPUT...PLUS TEMPS ARE STILL COLD
ALOFT OVER THAT REGION. UPDATES ALREADY ISSUED.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NASHVILLE TN

1036 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

.UPDATE...

MAIN ISSUE TODAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
CURRENTLY A LINE OF SHOWERS IS LOCATED FROM MACON COUNTY SOUTHWESTWARD
TO WAYNE COUNTY. THIS LINE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD WITH
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LIKELY THROUGH 18Z PER THE LATEST HRRR
RUNS. BUMPED POPS UP ON THE PLATEAU PRIOR TO 18Z FOR THIS LINE AND
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. ALSO BUMPED UP HIGHS ON THE PLATEAU WITH
QUICK WARMING THIS MORNING DUE FULL SUN.

AS FAR AS THE SEVERE POTENTIAL THE FOCUS WILL MAINLY BE THIS
AFTERNOON. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE TO AOB 30 KTS BY
21Z. SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD BE JUST WEST OF THE AREA BY
THAT TIME WITH SFC BOUNDARY JUST PUSHING INTO THE FAR NW CORNER OF
THE CWA. ONE BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH RECOVERY WILL OCCUR WITH
CURRENT CONVECTION. HRRR HAS BEEN BREAKING OUT DISORGANIZED
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA BY 18Z. THE ASSOCIATED
CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO HOLD CAPE VALUES TO 1500 J/KG OR LESS AND NOT
FAVOR A LARGE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. IF CONVECTION CAN HOLD OFF
UNTIL MID AFTERNOON A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL COULD BE
POSSIBLE. THE MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED
SEVERE HAIL REPORT COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS
BUT WBZ HEIGHT WAS 10.7 KFT ON 12Z OHX SOUNDING. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT DUE TO ANY ENHANCED SHEAR
WITH RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WITH THE MORNING CONVECTION. IF
CONVECTION IS SCATTERED PER HRRR THEN AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE ISSUE.

REAGAN

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 751 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015/

UPDATE...
WITH ISO SHWRS/TSTMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE TN/KY BORDER ACROSS WRN PORTIONS
OF MID STATE AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EWD THRU THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HRS...UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO MENTION
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS LOCATIONS NEAR THE TN/KY BORDER
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS. ALSO MOVED SLIGHT CHANCE AREA OF
SHWRS/TSTMS FURTHER S ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF MID STATE. TWEAKED HRLY
TEMPS...DEWPOINTS...SKY CONDITION...AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION GRIDS ALSO.

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

VISIT...

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

305 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY.
THIS WILL GENERATE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT TO OUR SOUTH AND REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR FORECAST FOR TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN WITH FAIR WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...AND MARK THE START OF A WARMING TREND WITH HOT SUMMERLIKE
WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

QUICK UPDATE TO ADD DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WHERE SVR TSTM
WATCH IS IN EFFECT OVER SE WV INTO ALLEGHANYS/FAR SW VA. NO OTHER
MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THRU THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

NOW SEEING CONVECTION FIRING FROM FAR SW VA/NW NC MTNS NE INTO THE
NRV. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. MADE ADJUSTMENTS
OVERALL TO FOLLOW LATEST HRRR AND TRENDS SUGGESTING STORMS WILL
ERUPT OVER MOST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND NEARBY THEN TAKE OFF TOWARD
THE NE IN THE MEAN SW FLOW OF 20-25KTS INTO THE PIEDMONT BY 2-4PM.
FURTHER WEST...SECONDARY AREA OF LIFT AHEAD OF FRONT WITH BETTER
POOLING OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL START TO FIRE THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL WITH MOST ORGANIZED CONVECTION HOLDING OFF TIL
AFTER 3-4PM. STILL LOOKS LIKE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR MODEST
LIFT ARRIVES INTO THE WV MTNS.

ADJUSTMENTS ALSO MADE TO OTHER WX ELEMENTS. TEMPS WILL BE WARM
TODAY OUTSIDE OF ANY RAIN...WITH MID 80S COMMON...AND SOME UPPER
80S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE URBAN AREAS OF ROANOKE/LYH/DAN.
SW WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES WHICH SHOULD ALLEVIATE THE HEAT
SOMEWHAT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLY MORNING...

MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTION OF THE SCENARIO FOR TODAY HAS NOT CHANGED
APPRECIABLY DURING THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. THIS WILL HAVE AN UPPER TROF
DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN US AND DRIVING A SURFACE LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS BACK FROM THE LOW
THROUGH THE OHIO AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS AND THIS WILL MOVE THROUGH
OUR AREA TONIGHT. CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN MODERATELY
UNSTABLE WITH CAPE VALUES IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 1500J/KG AND THIS WILL
EASILY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CONVECTION.

THE QUESTION THUS FAR HAS BEEN HOW MUCH DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE
AVAILABLE TO COMBINE WITH THE INSTABILITY TO POTENTIALLY GENERATE
SEVERE STORMS. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE BEST SUPPORT WILL SHEAR OFF TO
OUR NORTH AND BELIEVE THE LATEST SPC OUTLOOK HANDLES THE SITUATION WELL
WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH A SLIGHT
RISK RIGHT UP TO OUR WESTERN DOORSTEP. 850MB WINDS DO INCREASE AND GIVE
US A SUBSTANTIAL HODOGRAPH...BUT WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT
THIS WILL NOT BE UNTIL EARLY TONIGHT WHICH IS AFTER PEAK HEATING AND
MAXIMUM INSTABILITY. ALSO...BELIEVE OUTFLOW FROM CURRENT CONVECTION
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL RUN OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND KICK OFF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON..LIKELY BOTTOM LINE IS TO EXPECT
VIGOROUS STORMS TO DEVELOP WITH PEAK TIME MID/LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF WEAKENING STORMS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
WITH THE FRONT EARLY TONIGHT. THINGS THEN START TO WIND DOWN AFTER
ABOUT 2AM AS THE LINGERING ACTIVITY SINKS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION.

ALSO...THERE HAS BEEN SOME SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DURING THE PAST WEEK OR
SO AND STORMS TODAY WILL BE IN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT. EXPECT
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING...AND POSSIBLY SOME
LARGER SCALE HYDRO ISSUES IF SIGNIFICANT TRAINING DEVELOPS.

TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH
MID/UPPER 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S TO THE
WEST. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S THIS WILL MAKE FOR A MUGGY MONDAY.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...

AT 12Z TUE...WE SHOULD SEE A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN VA
INTO NORTH CENTRAL NC...WITH THE TRUE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAGGING
BACK ACROSS WV...AS WILL BE THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH.
UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE DIMINISHING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH
THE MAIN DYNAMICS SHIFTING INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S.
HOWEVER...LEFTOVER CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES AND A LINGERING
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS SHOULD PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ALBEIT NOT AS NUMEROUS ON MON IN
ADVANCE OF/ALONG THE FRONT. MAIN FOCUS FOR TUESDAY SHOULD BE
CLOSEST TO THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ROUGHLY LYH-MTV-TNB
EASTWARD...AND DIURNAL CONVECTION FROM DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND
THE LAGGING UPPER TROUGH SUPPORT ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
WOULD EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...WITH LITTLE ACTIVITY EXPECTED AFT
04Z WED. MAX TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS THE WEST...BUT
STILL WELL INTO THE 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

WED-THU WILL FEATURE AN INCREASINGLY SUMMERLIKE PATTERN. 500MB
HEIGHTS RISE TOWARD 588DM DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS A BROAD
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE BAHAMAS. THE
REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED FROM CENTRAL AL/CENTRAL
GA INTO SC/NC AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...BUT DRIFT NORTHWARD
TOWARD OUR CWA BY FRI. FOR WED-THU...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
BE HELD SOUTH OF THE REGION...BUT DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL LIKELY
TRIGGER ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE BLUE RIDGE FROM WATAUGA UP INTO
GRAYSON...WITH A SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTHWARD TREND OF THIS ACTIVITY
ON THU. BY FRI...WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE RETURNING TO MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR...WOULD
EXPECT A GREATER PROBABILITY AND COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY WEST AND SOUTH.

TWO FEATURES TO KEEP AN EYE ON THROUGH THE PERIOD...A POSSIBLE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMING IN THE CENTRAL GULF LATE IN THE
WEEK...WHICH AT A MINIMUM WILL ALLOW DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO
BEING TRACKING NORTHWARD AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THIS LATER FEATURE
HAS A LIMITED CHANCE OF MAKING IT DOWN INTO THE CWA GIVEN THE
BUILDING HEIGHTS AND BLOCKING FLOW ALOFT.

COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY IS MINIMAL...WITH ONLY A BRIEF
DROP IN 850MB TEMPS. INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AND BUILDING
HEIGHTS ALOFT ALONG WITH DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW WILL ACTUALLY
YIELD MAX TEMPS HIGHER TUE THAN ON MON. WARMING WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH POCKETS OF 850MB TEMPS EXCEEDING
+20C ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW AREAS EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE TO POKE INTO THE LOW 90S WED-FRI...WITH MID TO UPPER
70S MOUNTAINS AND WELL INTO THE 80S ELSEWHERE. MIN TEMPS WILL SHOW
A SLIGHT DECREASE TUE IN THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND WED AS A
RESULT OF DRIER AIR...BUT OTHERWISE SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT MONDAY...

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY WITH
SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY NUMEROUS DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE A
LARGE SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE...DRIFTING SLOWLY WEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE MID-SOUTH. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION
MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH THE BEST THREAT OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
AND ASSOCIATED BETTER DYNAMICS REMAINING ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO
THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...THERE IS AGREEMENT AMONG THE LONG RANGE
MODELS OF A POSSIBLE BACKDOOR FRONT DRIFTING INTO THE REGION OVER
THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD SERVE TO ENHANCE CONVECTION SAT-SUN. THIS
BOUNDARY IS LEFT LINGERING UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THESE FEATURES COMBINED WITH DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE...POSSIBLY FROM A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF BY THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...SHOULD YIELD
ABOVE AVERAGE DIURNAL CONVECTION ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...BUT OVERALL THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW. MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...THANKS TO THE INCREASINGLY HIGH
DEWPOINTS/RH LEVELS. LOWS 60S MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 70 PIEDMONT AND
HIGHS UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 90S PIEDMONT.

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT MONDAY...

WILL FOLLOW HIGH-RES MODELS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING THEN MORE
OF THE GFS/WRF OVERNIGHT-18Z TUESDAY.

AVIATION CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CENTER AROUND TSRA AND GUSTY
SW WINDS. RADAR SHOWING STORMS ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED FROM
TRI- SOUTH OF ROA...WITH A BETTER LINE OF STORMS FURTHER WEST FROM
CRW-HTS SOUTH INTO SE KY. THINK ROA/LYH WILL HAVE THE TSRA INVOF
TERMINALS AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH THE REST OF
TERMINALS STARTING AFTER 19Z-20Z. SINCE THE COVERAGE IS MORE
SPOTTY THIS AFTERNOON WILL NOT GO WITH PREDOMINANT THUNDER IN THE
TAFS...BUT HAVE TEMPO AT ROANOKE.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE 8-15 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS OVER 20
KTS.

AS WE HEAD TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING THE MORE ORGANIZED STORMS
WILL MOVE TOWARD BLF/LWB THEN SHIFT TO BCB/ROA IN THE 23Z-02Z TIME
FRAME. WILL STILL HAVE RAIN SHOWERS DOMINATE WX WITH TEMPO
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY MOVES EAST THROUGH THE EVENING BUT
LOOKS TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT WITH MAINLY SHOWERS FOLLOWING THE MAIN
LINE OF STORMS IN THE WEST.

DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WIND FOLLOWS THE SHOWERS WILL DETERMINE
EXTENT OF ANY FOG OR LOWER CIGS. WENT A TAD MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN
THE 12Z GFS BUT STILL LOOKING AT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE WRN
TERMINALS BLF/LWB...WITH MOST TAF SITES INCREASE TO VFR AFTER
12-13Z TUESDAY.

THE WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST-WNW BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING
ALLOWING FOR MORE DRYING LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. STILL SOME
QUESTION HOW FAR THE DEEPER MOISTURE MAKES IT EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH SOME HINT OF POSSIBLE TSRA DEVELOPMENT ALONG/EAST OF A
LYH/DAN LINE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY UPSLOPE CLOUDINESS
AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT BLF/LWB WITH LOW
END VFR CIGS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE SUMMER LIKE AFTER A BRIEF DRY PERIOD
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL BE HEATING UP WITH DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE MTNS. EXPECT TO SEE FOG AND
POSSIBLE LOW STRATUS BY THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE WEEKEND MORNING
AT BCB/LWB...AND POSSIBLY LYH/DAN.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS/WP
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...WP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

144 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1220 PM EDT MONDAY...

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLY MORNING...

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT MONDAY...

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT MONDAY...

WILL FOLLOW HIGH-RES MODELS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING THEN MORE
OF THE GFS/WRF OVERNIGHT-18Z TUESDAY.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE 8-15 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS OVER 20
KTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS/WP
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...WP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

1234 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1220 PM EDT MONDAY...

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLY MORNING...

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 430 PM EDT SUNDAY...

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT MONDAY...

SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...BUT HAVE BEEN BREAKING UP OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS
WE COMMENCE DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT WITH BKN-OVC MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM
UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. LWB BRIEFLY WENT TO MVFR AND VERY
BRIEFLY IFR IN BR...BUT HAS NOW IMPROVED TO VFR. BCB SHOWING 5SM
BR...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE VERY LOCALIZED. ANY RESTRICTIONS IN
VISIBILITY FROM BR/FG WILL BE VERY BRIEF AND GONE BY 13Z.

MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND ASSOCIATED
CIGS/VSBYS/AND WIND ISSUES. STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA AFT 18Z.
INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS ARE SUFFICIENT FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. MAIN CONCERN
WOULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. MODELS
GENERALLY IN CONSENSUS IN BRINGING/DEVELOPING CONVECTION INTO THE
AREA WEST 18Z...ROA/BCB AREA BY 20/21Z...AND REACHING DAN/LYH BY
00Z. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT CONVECTION COULD LINGER WELL PAST
MIDNIGHT LT. ANY CONVECTION COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH MVFR OR WORSE
CIGS/VSBYS AND VARIABLE/GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER...NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN DURATION OR TIMING TO ADVERTISE ANY MORE IN THE TAF
AT THIS POINT THAN A PROB30 EAST/TEMPO WEST.

GREATER POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS BLF-LWB AND
SOUTHWEST VA AFT THE MAIN CONVECTION DIMINISHES/DRIFTS EAST AFT
04Z.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING
AND CONTINUE UNTIL CONVECTION ARRIVES LATER TODAY. SW10-20 WITH
GUSTS 20-25 POSSIBLE MOST AREAS.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THROUGH THE
TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY BRINGING A
BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHERN SECTIONS TUESDAY. THE
FRONT SHOULD PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO RESULT IN A RETURN TO VFR
ACROSS THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED
AFTERNOON/EVENING MOUNTAIN CONVECTION...RESULTING IN BRIEF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS. THIS OUTSIDE OF ANY LATE NIGHT-EARLY MORNING FOG
WHICH WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BRING BRIEF SUB-VFR AT TIMES INTO LATE
WEEK.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS/WP
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...JH/MBS/RAB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

145 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL WEDGE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN
ERODE AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION ON MONDAY. MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING
DRIER WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 840 PM EDT SUNDAY...

WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/WARM FRONT ALONG THE APPALACHIANS THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHALLOW CONVECTION THIS EVENING WITHIN A
NARROW SWATH OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FAR WEST. HOWEVER GIVEN
LACK OF MUCH UPPER SUPPORT AND DRY AIR ALOFT ABOVE MID LEVEL
INVERSIONS OFF EVENING SOUNDINGS...ONLY EXPECTING CONTINUED
WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. THIS MAINLY ACROSS THE
SW PER THE LATEST HRRR AND IN AN AREA SUPPORTED BY LIGHT SE FLOW
ON THE PERIMETER OF THE EASTERN WEDGE. THUS KEEPING IN SOME LOW
CHANCES ESPCLY NW NC RIDGES/FOOTHILLS TONIGHT...WITH ONLY
ISOLATED ELSEWHERE OVER THE MOUNTAINS PER OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER
SHRA. APPEARS THE RESIDUAL WEDGE WILL LINGER ENOUGH OUT EAST WITH
LOSS OF HEATING TO PRECLUDE MUCH SHRA CHANCES THERE SO KEEPING
THINGS DRY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT CLOUDS TO FILL BACK IN
UNDER THE INVERSION ALOFT LATER THIS EVENING ESPCLY BLUE RIDGE
WHERE WILL TREND TO BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH PC ELSEWHERE OVER
PATCHY FOG LATE. KEPT TEMPS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS WITH ONLY SMALL
ADJUSTS TO LOWS THAT LOOK TO STAY MOSTLY IN THE 60S AS DEWPOINTS
START TO INCH UP BY DAWN.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST- SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...ARRIVING ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF SE WV/SW VA LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE WASHED-
OUT OLD COLD FRONT...NOW A WARM FRONT...WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL
WITH LOWER 80S IN THE WEST TO MID TO UPPER 80S EAST.
DESTABILIZATION IN THE AFTERNOON WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY GENERATE PREFRONTAL CONVECTION OVER THE REGION. BULK
OF THE STRONG STORMS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE FRONT BUT CAN NOT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE CELL OVER THE REGION WITH A WEAK CAP AND
MODEST INSTABILITIES.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SUNDAY...

KEEPING THE FORECAST CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND
HIGHLIGHTING THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. SPC
STILL SHOWING SLIGHT RISK OF SVR STORMS OVER EASTERN WV BY MONDAY
EVENING. MODELS SHOW BEST LIFT AND WINDS SHOULD ENTER OUR WRN CWA
BETWEEN 8PM AND MIDNIGHT. GIVEN THE ARRIVAL AROUND DARK SOME SVR
POTENTIAL EXISTS...SO ADDED SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS OVER THE
FAR WESTERN CWA. THE BEST ENERGY WILL SHIFT MORE OVER NRN WV INTO
PA BY DAWN TUESDAY SO KEEPING MAINLY THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
EAST...THINKING WITH LOSS OF HEATING...THUNDERSTORMS WILL STAY
BELOW SVR LEVELS OVERALL...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT WIND BASED ON
40KT MID LEVEL FLOW.

HEADING INTO TUESDAY THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF PRECIP WILL SHIFT EAST
AND SOUTH WITH FROPA WITH WESTERLY FLOW CURTAILING PRECIP CHANCES
IN THE FOOTHILLS AND NEW RIVER VALLEY. COULD BE BREEZY TUESDAY.
SFC CONVERGENCE NEAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW FOR LINGERING
THREAT OF STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHSIDE VA PIEDMONT
INTO NC..BUT BEST THREAT WILL BE IN THE COASTAL PLAINS. SOME
SEMBLANCE OF UPSLOPE WITH ANOTHER VORT TRACKING ACROSS NRN WV
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND COOL POCKET MAY STRING SOME SHRA/TSRA INTO
WV...FAR SW VA.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY A WEAK HIGH BUILDS IN WITH
SUBSIDENCE TAKING ANY THREAT OF PRECIP AWAY. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE UPCOMING WEEK BEFORE HEIGHTS BUILD
MIDWEEK AND BEYOND WITH SOME MID 50S MTNS TO LOWER TO MID 60S
SOUTHEAST.

SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE AND WEAK VORT ACROSS THE TN VALLEY SHOULD
BRING A FEW STORMS AROUND THE BOONE TO FANCY GAP AREA WED
AFTERNOON THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BE SPOTTY.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT SUNDAY...

YOU CAN EXPECT A SUMMER LIKE PATTERN FOR MID-LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH
MAIN BELT OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES/WESTERLIES STAYING UP OVER THE
LAKES AND SRN CANADA. MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL BE
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND ANY WEAK VORTS THAT CAN WORK INTO THE
RIDGE. BEST THREAT OF MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION ARRIVES AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE PA/MD CORRIDOR FRIDAY...WITH BEST
CHANCE INTO THE WV MTNS.

ONCE THIS WAVE PASSES THE SFC RIDGE TRIES TO HANG ON...THOUGH THE
LATEST ECMWF SHOWS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE GOING ACROSS THE NE WHICH
COULD SINK THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH. CLIMATOLOGICALLY WE
ARE INTO THE TIME OF YEAR WHERE COLD FRONTS MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTH ARE LESS FREQUENT...SO KEPT HIGHS WARMER THAN CLIMO...WITH
MAINLY DIURNAL THREAT OF STORMS...EXCEPT ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT.

HIGHS EACH DAY OVERALL WILL BE IN THE 80S WEST...TO AROUND
90-LOWER 90S EAST...WITH 60S AT NIGHT...AND EVEN AROUND 70
SOUTHEAST.

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT MONDAY...

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AT TAF SITES EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...WITH A SLIGHT TREND DOWN TO MVFR AS WE HEAD TOWARD
DAYBREAK. THIS HAS BEEN THE TREND OF LATE AND GUIDANCE SEEMS TO
HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE SITUATION. BELIEVE THE PERSISTENT
SHOWERS WHICH HAVE EXTENDED FROM NORTHWEST NC NORTHEASTWARD INTO
VA WILL NOT AFFECT TAF SITES...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS OUTCOME
IS ONLY MEDIUM AT KLYH AND ON THE LOW SIDE AT KDAN SO MAY HAVE TO
AMEND BEFORE 12Z IF RADAR TRENDS AND MESO MODELS INDICATE A WETTER
SOLUTION.

AFTER DAYBREAK TAF SITES SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
BEFORE CONVECTION STARTS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP WITH
DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND OROGRAPHIC AFFECTS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...AND HOW MUCH WILL BE LEFT OF UPSTREAM SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION WITH THE FRONT AS IT REACHES US TOWARD THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD. WILL USE VCTS AT ALL SITES FROM 18Z THROUGH 00Z...THEN
INTRODUCE PREDOMINANT -TSRA FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THE STORMS WILL BE ON THE STRONG SIDE ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...AND MAY APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS AT KBLF AND KLWB. WILL NOT
ATTEMPT TO INDICATE ANY SVR STORMS IN THE TAFS AS LATER ISSUANCES
WILL HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION AS THE
SITUATION UNFOLDS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELD STRENGTHENS AND MIXING BRINGS THE WINDS TO THE SURFACE.
EXPECT GUSTS TO 20KT/25KT AT MOST LOCATIONS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/RCS
NEAR TERM...JH/RCS
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...MBS/JH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

657 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015

CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED RIDGING OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
FROM SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. SHORTWAVES OF NOTE INCLUDE TWO OVER NORTHWEST WI AND
NORTHWEST ONTARIO...SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THERE.
THERE IS ALSO A SURFACE COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE NORTHWEST
ONTARIO WAVE...EXTENDING INTERNATIONAL FALLS MN TO PIERRE SD. SO FAR
THERE IS LIMITED CONVECTION ON THE FRONT. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF SUN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND 925MB TEMPS WARMING TO NOW IN THE 23C NEAR I-
39 TO AROUND 27C NEAR I-35 PER ACARS SOUNDINGS HAS SUPPORTED
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S...WARMEST ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. DEEP DRY AIRMASS IN THE 12Z MPX SOUNDING HAS
ALLOWED DEWPOINTS TO MIX DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. THESE LOW
DEWPOINTS ARE GREATLY REDUCING CAPE ALONG THE FRONT...AND COMBINED
WITH THE SHORTWAVES OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST REDUCING DYNAMIC
FORCING...IS WHY CONVECTION HAS BEEN LIMITED ON THE FRONT.
LASTLY...WELL TO OUR SOUTHWEST...A MULTITUDE OF SHORTWAVES WERE
PRESENT OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...UTAH AND ARIZONA...WHICH INCLUDES
THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE BLANCA. THESE ARE PROGGED TO TAKE AIM AT
THE AREA LATE THURSDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER ON THE 12Z TUSCON
SOUNDING WAS 1.6 INCHES.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DIVING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS THE NORTHWEST ONTARIO HEADS SOUTHEAST. IT
APPEARS ANY CONVECTION THAT MAY IGNITE ALONG THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL MN WILL FALL APART AS IT ENTERS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING. THIS IS DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THE
LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT AND THE MAIN DYNAMICS
WELL TO THE NORTH. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONGER STORM TRACKING ACROSS
TAYLOR COUNTY BEING CLOSER TO THE DYNAMICS...WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS
AND HAIL GIVEN THE INVERTED-V SOUNDING ENVIRONMENT. KEPT SOME 15-30
PERCENT CHANCES IN FOR THE EVENING...HIGHEST NORTHWEST. AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY CONDITIONS LOOK DRY AS SUBSIDENCE AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...PLUS A RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP CLOSE TO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 DEWPOINTS. PLENTY
OF SUN LOOKS TO BE ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY. 925MB TEMPS DEFINITELY
COOLER TOMORROW...18-20C AT 18Z...BUT THESE SHOULD STILL SUPPORT
HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S GIVEN A DRY AIRMASS...WARMEST
SOUTH. THAT DRY AIRMASS REFLECTED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPING TO
0.75 INCHES SHOULD ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO MIX PRETTY WELL AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015

A NUMBER OF FEATURES ARE COMING TOGETHER TO PRODUCE A HEAVY RAINFALL
EVENT THU AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WITH A SMALLER 100 MILE
BAND OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OUR GENERAL REGION BETWEEN
WISCONSIN HIGHWAY 29 AND U.S. HIGHWAY 20.

1. DPVA FROM SHORTWAVE DYNAMICS. VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS ON
BRINGING THE COLLECTIVE OF SHORTWAVES IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
THROUGH NEBRASKA AND KS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN INTO AND EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY.

2. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE. NOT ONLY DO THE SHORTWAVES BRING THE DEEPER
PACIFIC MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF BLANCA...FAIRLY
STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS TO
PROPEL GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE NORTHWARD. AS SUCH...OUR PRECIPITABLE
WATER CLIMBS DRAMATICALLY...REACHING 1.5 - 2 INCHES BY 00Z
FRIDAY...HIGHEST ACROSS THE ENTIRE STATE OF IA. THIS HIGH LEVEL OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER...OVER 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL...DOES NOT LEAVE THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFTER 18Z FRI.

3. RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION FROM AN 80-100 KT JET STREAK AT 200MB
HOVERING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES

4. IMPRESSIVE FRONTOGENESIS BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 700MB
ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVES...ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW TRACK.

5. ADVECTION OF CAPE...ALBEIT LESS THAN 500 J/KG...INTO THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATION

6. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS UP AROUND 4000 METERS...WITH THE STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS CENTERED IN THE WARM CLOUD.

A VARIETY OF MODEL QPFS FROM THE GFS...NAM AND ECMWF SUGGESTS 1 TO 2
INCHES IS EASILY LIKELY...WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THAT
SMALLER BAND. WHERE THE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FALLS...FLOODING OF
RIVERS IS LIKELY...ALONG WITH URBAN AND POSSIBLY AREAL FLOODING.
HOWEVER...THAT LOCATION IS VERY HARD TO PIN DOWN WITH THE 09.00Z
CIPS ANALOGS AND ECMWF SUGGESTING NORTHERN IOWA...THE 09.12Z NAM
ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA TO I-90...THE 09.12Z ECMWF ALONG I-90 TO GREEN
BAY...AND THE 09.12Z CANADIAN/GFS JUST NORTH OF I-90.

A FLOOD WATCH HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE
DISAGREEMENT ON EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONTOGENESIS BAND SETS UP...AND
THE EVENT STILL BEING 48-72 HOURS OUT. HOWEVER...A WATCH WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED.

AS THE SHORTWAVES PULL OUT OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WE SHOULD SEE A DRIER PERIOD THANKS TO SUBSIDENCE AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. HAVE LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACCORDINGLY TO NOW DRY IN OUR NORTHWEST HALF. STILL MAINTAINED SOME
20 PERCENT CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF IN THE EVENT THE SHORTWAVES
PULL OUT SLOWER LIKE THE 09.12Z CANADIAN. AFTER SATURDAY AND THROUGH
NEXT TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES MOSTLY IN THE 30-50 PERCENT
RANGE LITTER THE FORECAST. THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE SOME DRY
PERIODS...BUT TIMING THAT LOOKS EXTREMELY PROBLEMATIC AS WE SIT IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST U.S..
THERE ARE SOME HINTS IN THE 09.00Z/12Z ECMWF OF ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE RIDGE AND IMPACTING THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE
TAME. GIVEN WHAT HAPPENS THU/FRI...WE DEFINITELY DO NOT THE ECMWF
RAIN. BEING UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL FLOW WITH OFF AND ON
PRECIPITATION...WE SHOULD HOVER NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS FOR HIGHS AND
LOWS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES TONIGHT AND MAY
TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THEM IN THE TAF AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL AS WE
GO THROUGH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR WINDS TO SWITCH TO
THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. PLAN ON VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015

A 100 MILE WIDE BAND OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...ON THE ORDER OF 3 TO
5 INCHES AND POSSIBLY HIGHER...IS LOOKING TO FALL SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
WISCONSIN HIGHWAY 29 AND U.S. HIGHWAY 20 IN OUR REGION BETWEEN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY MORNING. RIVER CONTINGENCY FORECASTS
USING THESE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL SUGGESTS GAUGES ON ANY RIVER
EXCEPT THE MISSISSIPPI COULD REACH MODERATE OR MAJOR STAGE. THE
MISSISSIPPI COULD CLIMB AT LEAST TO MINOR. AREAL AND URBAN
FLOODING WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE...AND LIKELY SHOULD THE BAND SET
UP OVER LA CROSSE OR AUSTIN. ITS WORTH NOTING THAT HALF OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED RAINFALL MAY FALL IN 3 HOURS ACCORDING TO HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE...SUGGESTING SOME FLASH FLOODING
POTENTIAL.

THE NEXT 2 DAYS WILL ALL BE ABOUT PINNING DOWN THE EXACT LOCATION OF
THE BAND OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
HYDROLOGY...AJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

1020 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...LEAD SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH KICKING
OFF SOME SHRA FROM MKE TO WALWORTH COUNTIES. RATHER QUIET UPSTREAM
FOR NOW. HOWEVER MESO MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ADDITIONAL
SHRA/TSRA AS MID LEVELS COOL WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE RIDING SOUTHEAST.
OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH ANY SHRA/TSRA. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SOME
GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY CONVECTION. THINGS WILL QUIET DOWN BY MID
EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. WEAK RIDGING TAKES HOLD. RENEWED WAA
ON TUESDAY PROGGD TO FOCUS CONVECTION ACROSS NRN WI.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015/

TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

A DECENT MID LEVEL TROF WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. COLD TEMPS ALOFT COMBINED WITH WARM
SURFACE TEMPS WILL GENERATE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8-9C THIS
AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS WILL START OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...BUT WE/LL BE MIXING UP TO NEAR 800MB...HELPING TO LOWER THOSE
VALUES MORE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S...MAYBE EVEN LOWER. THOUGH
IT/S GETTING DRIER AT THE SURFACE...THE COLUMN HAS PLENTY OF
MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR AND THE
SIMULATED ABI SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. ONE WILL BE WITH A SURFACE TROF/CDFNT THAT
WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION
WILL BE MORE WITH THE UPPER TROF/MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER
NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE PEAK FOR ALL THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BE CENTERED AROUND 3-5 PM THIS AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING QUICKLY
THEREAFTER. GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES...WE COULD SEE SOME POTENT
WIND GUSTS AND SPC HAS KEPT US IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE DUE TO
THIS. SOME HAIL ALSO LIKELY IN STRONGER STORMS.

OVERALL...IT SHOULD FEEL PRETTY NICE OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
50S.

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH/END BY MID EVENING. COMFORTABLE
TEMPS ARRIVE WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH/END BY MID EVENING. COMFORTABLE
TEMPS ARRIVE WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

TUESDAY LOOKS DRY DURING THE DAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW STORMS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT DROPS THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS PERIOD. TUESDAY WILL
LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND THE WARMEST OF THE
YEAR. ONE REMAINING CONCERN WITH TEMPS TUESDAY IS WHETHER OR NOT
A LAKE BREEZE WILL FORM. OFFSHORE WINDS ARE RIGHT AT THAT
THRESHOLD WHERE IT COULD GO EITHER WAY...SO KEPT HIGHS A LITTLE
COOLER NEAR THE LAKE. IF WINDS STAY OFFSHORE LONGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON THOUGH...TEMPS WILL END UP WARMER THAN FORECAST NEAR
THE LAKE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST.

WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS
A STRONG LOW MOVES THROUGH WISCONSIN. COULD SEE SOME DECENT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WITH GFS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING
2 INCHES.

MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY...WITH MORE SHOWER/STORM CHANCES SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS DEEP MOISTURE QUICKLY RETURNS.

TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL LATE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP PRIMARILY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...DURING MAX HEATING. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD
PRODUCE 40 MPH WIND GUSTS...POSSIBLY STRONGER...AND HAIL TO 1/2
INCH...OR POSSIBLY LARGER. THE PEAK ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM 20-23Z
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY 15 TO 25KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY DURING THE EARLY
EVENING WITH WINDS DIMINISHING QUICKLY AS WELL WITH SUNSET.

MARINE...WILL HOIST A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WIND POINT SOUTH TO
WINTHROP HARBOR FROM NOON TO 7 PM TODAY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST
TO 22-24KTS. LOOK FOR THE WINDS TO DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH SUNSET. THE
HIGHEST WAVES WILL BE WELL OFF SHORE.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ646.

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DDV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED

NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

331 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

.TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

OVERALL...IT SHOULD FEEL PRETTY NICE OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
50S.

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH/END BY MID EVENING. COMFORTABLE
TEMPS ARRIVE WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH/END BY MID EVENING. COMFORTABLE
TEMPS ARRIVE WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

TUESDAY LOOKS DRY DURING THE DAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW STORMS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT DROPS THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

.THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST.

WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS
A STRONG LOW MOVES THROUGH WISCONSIN. COULD SEE SOME DECENT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WITH GFS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING
2 INCHES.

MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY...WITH MORE SHOWER/STORM CHANCES SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS DEEP MOISTURE QUICKLY RETURNS.

TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL LATE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP PRIMARILY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...DURING MAX HEATING. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD
PRODUCE 40 MPH WIND GUSTS...POSSIBLY STRONGER...AND HAIL TO 1/2
INCH...OR POSSIBLY LARGER. THE PEAK ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM 20-23Z
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY 15 TO 25KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY DURING THE EARLY
EVENING WITH WINDS DIMINISHING QUICKLY AS WELL WITH SUNSET.

.MARINE...WILL HOIST A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WIND POINT SOUTH TO
WINTHROP HARBOR FROM NOON TO 7 PM TODAY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST
TO 22-24KTS. LOOK FOR THE WINDS TO DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH SUNSET. THE
HIGHEST WAVES WILL BE WELL OFF SHORE.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DDV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHEYENNE WY

1023 PM MDT SUN JUN 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 MDT SUN JUN 7 2015

DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT SAGGED SOUTH THIS MORNING. 1PM HUMIDITIES HERE AT
CHEYENNE DOWN TO AROUND 40 PERCENT MAKING FOR A FAIRLY NICE
AFTERNOON.AREA RADAR DOES SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CWFA BEHIND THE FRONT. BEST
CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH APPEARS TO BE
OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...THOUGH WE ARE SEEING SOME CLUSTERS
OF STORMS MOVING OUT OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE. DEWPOINTS OUT IN THE PANHANDLE REMAIN HIGH...58 AT
CHADRON AND 57 AT ALLIANCE...SO WE COULD BE DEALING WITH SOME
SEVERE STORMS UP THAT WAY AS WELL.

LATEST HRRR FORECAST SHOWING PEAK CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE I-80 CORRIDOR FROM SIDNEY TO CHEYENNE FROM 21Z THROUGH 00Z OR
SO. WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA...WOULD EXPECT CONVECTION
TO DIE OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.

DRY WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
CWFA. SHOULD BE OUR NICEST DAYS OF THE WEEK TUESDAY WILL MOST
LIKELY BE OUR WARMEST DAY AS 700MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO +12 TO
+14C.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 MDT SUN JUN 7 2015

BY WEDNESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROJECTED TO SHIFT EAST OF OUR
AREA AS MOISTURE...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE
BLANCA...MOVES UP ACROSS WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. HIGHER
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ADVERTISED WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES GRADUALLY EASTWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. RIGHT NOW TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT AREAS THAT
WILL SEE A RISK OF FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING...HOWEVER WITH A FAIRLY
DECENT SLUG OF TROPICAL MOISTURE POISED TO MOVE THROUGH MID-WEEK
IT IS CERTAINLY SOMETHING WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR. OTHERWISE...WE
DECREASE POPS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE BULK OF THE DEEP
MOISTURE PUSHES OUT TO THE EAST AND WE SEE A RETURN TO A MORE
TYPICAL SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE REGIME OF DIURNALLY FORCED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1023 PM MDT SUN JUN 7 2015

VFR.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 240 MDT SUN JUN 7 2015

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS UPCOMING WEEK AS FUELS ARE IN
GREEN UP AND HUMIDITIES REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH FROM RECENT RAINS. NEXT
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND WE ONCE AGAIN COME UNDER SOUTHWEST
WIND FLOW. THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING DISTURBANCES NORTHEAST
INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH INCREASED MONSOONAL MOISTURE FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 240 MDT SUN JUN 7 2015

LATEST RIVER GAUGES HAVE SHOWN A SLOW DECREASE IN RIVER LEVELS AT
MOST AREAS. ALONG WITH DRIER WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WE
SHOULD EXPECT CONTINUED DECREASES. FOR THE WHITE RIVER UP IN DAWES
COUNTY NEBRASKA...FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINS THE PAST FEW DAYS IN
ITS TRIBUTARIES HAS DECREASED...SO NARROWED DOWN AERIAL FLOOD
WARNING TO JUST THE RIVER. SNOW MELT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE
LARAMIE RIVER AT LARAMIE THAT WILL KEEP THE RIVER HIGH OUT THERE. NEXT
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAINS WEDNESDAY.

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...GCC
HYDROLOGY...GCC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TUCSON AZ

915 PM MST TUE JUN 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT UNDER A PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS BEING DETECTED BY
DOPPLER RADAR AS OF 9 PM. ALTHOUGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE RIDICULOUSLY
HIGH FOR EARLY JUNE...WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE
UPPER 60S...DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS ALREADY STARTED TO INFILTRATE THE
AREA FROM THE SW. LATEST GPS PW READING FROM UOFA HAD VALUE AROUND
1.50"....DOWN FROM THE RECORD JUNE VALUE EARLIER TODAY OF 1.72".

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWED AN UPPER LOW WEST OF FRISCO.
MODELS MOVE THIS FEATURE ESE TOWARD CA CST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SINCE THERE WILL BE LINGERING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR MODEL KEEPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
AREAS NORTH OF TUCSON. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST EARLIER
THIS EVENING.

.AVIATION...VALID THROUGH 11/04Z. SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 6-9K FT
AGL...ISOLD -SHRA. SURFACE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS
THRU 10/17Z. AFT 10/17Z... WLY/NWLY SURFACE WIND AT 12-18 KTS AND
GUSTS TO 25-28 KTS WITH THE STRONGEST SURFACE WIND EAST OF KTUS IN
THE VICINITY OF KFHU... KALK...KDUG AND KSAD. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF TUCSON
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE DRYING
OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE WILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A MORE
PRONOUNCED DRYING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...WITH ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONFINED TO THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS. SOME BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF TUCSON. LIGHTER WINDS ARE THEN
FORECAST OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

.CLIMATE...THE AVERAGE DAILY DEWPOINT VALUE AT THE TUCSON
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT TODAY WILL BE CLOSE TO A JUNE RECORD WHEN THE
DAY IS OVER. DAILY AVERAGE DEWPOINT DATA DATES BACK TO 1946.

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO

343 AM MDT WED JUN 10 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT WED JUN 10 2015

AIRMASS WILL BE VERY MOIST TODAY AS THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE
BLANCA MOVE OVER COLORADO. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB
ABOVE AN INCH TODAY...RECORD LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE
RAP IS SHOWING 1.25 INCHES WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE JUNE RECORD OF
1.29. THIS MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
COLORADO AND THE FOUR CORNERS AREA ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES UNSTABLE.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER
UTAH. MODELS INDICATE THE WAVE WILL LIFT EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. THE BEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL BE OVER
NORTHERN PARTS OF COLORADO. EXPECT THIS TO TRIGGER SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. BEST
CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE
STATE WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECT TO REACH THE LOWER 80S. THIS
WILL RESULT IN CAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. FOR THE FRONT RANGE AND
NEAR BY PLAINS...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF
HEATING. IF TEMPERATURES CAN REACH THE UPPER 70S WOULD EXPECT
CAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. MODELS ARE ALL OVER ON THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY TODAY. THE GFS AND NAM SHOW CAPES AROUND 500 J/KG
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE RAP HAS CAPES REACHING 2000
J/KG IN THE DENVER AREA. WOULD EXPECT CAPES SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN.
THOUGH IF CLOUD COVER REMAINS THICK ALL DAY CAPES COULD BE ON THE
LOWER END AND THE AIRMASS COULD BE SOMEWHAT CAPPED. LOW LEVEL
SHEAR WILL BE WEAK...SO THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE VERY LOW.

STORMS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE WAVE SHIFTS EAST OF THE
AREA. FROM MID EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT...SUBSIDENCE WILL BE OVER
THE AREA BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE. AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MOIST WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND AN INCH. WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS AROUND.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT WED JUN 10 2015

THURSDAY...THERE WILL BE A WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE PRESENT IN THE
MORNING AS ONE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST OVER THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AND THE NEXT SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT BASIN APPROACHES FM
THE SOUTHWEST. THE MDLS BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE FRONT RANGE IN
THE MORNING...15-18Z...WITH NELY UPSLOPE WINDS DEVELOPING BY LATE
AFTN BLO 700 MB. THE AMS WILL BE VERY MOIST WITH PW VALUES IN
EXCESS OF ONE INCH. FORECAST CAPES ON THE SOUNDINGS INCREASE BY
THE AFTN...THE GFS BUFFER SOUNDINGS YIELD VALUES OF 500-700 J/KG
BY 21Z WHILE THE NAM12 SOUNDINGS GENERATE AROUND 1100 J/KG. SOME
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AS WELL...BEST CHC OF SEVERE WOULD STILL APPEAR
TO BE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...THE MDLS GENERATE PRETTY GENEROUS QPF AMOUNTS ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE/PALMER DIVIDE. CERTAINLY ENOUGH TO ELEVATE THE
CONCERNS FOR FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING. THE SOUNDINGS GENERATE THE
DEEPEST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FM 06Z-18Z THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTN/THURSDAY
NIGHT...MAY TRANSITION TO MORE OF A STEADY LGT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL BY FRIDAY MORNING. LIKELY POPS LOOK LIKE A GOOD
BET...ESPECIALLY IN AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS. THE UPPER TROUGH
APPEARS TO STALL OVER COLORADO AT THAT TIME...SLOWLY MAKING ITS
WAY EAST INTO KANSAS SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...MAY BUMP THE
POPS UP ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL. OVER THE WEEKEND...IT MAY
NOT BE AS WET BUT STILL UNSETTLED...WITH SOME MOISTURE AND A WEAK
TROUGH SHIFTING ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO. BY TUESDAY...FINALLY
APPEAR TO BE A DRIER WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...SLGT CHC OF AFTN/EVNG THUNDERSTORMS WILL SUFFICE FOR THAT
TIME.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT WED JUN 10 2015

THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...FROM 18Z TO
00Z. WILL HAVE A TEMPO FOR TSRA IN THE TAFS FOR THIS. VERY HEAVY
RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS WITH THE STORMS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY WITH
PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED TONIGHT. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 6000 FEET. SOUTHERLY WINDS
TO 20 KNOTS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 15Z.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT WED JUN 10 2015

ANY STORM THAT FORMS TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN DUE TO THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS. AN INCH IN 30 MINUTES OR LESS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONG STORMS. THE STORMS SHOULD BE
MOVING 15 TO 20 MPH...SO NOT EXPECTING STATIONARY STORMS. THE
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OFF TO THE EAST.

A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE STATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE UPSLOPE
FLOW THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PLAINS AND INTO THE FOOTHILLS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1 TO 2
INCHES...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE UPSLOPE ENHANCED FOOTHILLS
AND PALMER DIVIDE. SATURATED SOILS WILL INHIBIT MUCH SOAKING AND
COULD CAUSE FLOODING ISSUES QUICKLY. THIS WILL CAUSE RIVERS AND
STREAM LEVELS TO RISE AND THE MAIN RIVERS DOWNSTREAM...NAMELY THE
SOUTH PLATTE...RESULTING IN ANOTHER SURGE OF WATER TO PUSH DOWN
OVER THE WEEKEND. ROCK/MUDSLIDES WL BE AN ISSUE AS WELL IN THE
FOOTHILLS.

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...MEIER
HYDROLOGY...MEIER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

1140 PM MDT TUE JUN 9 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1110 PM MDT TUE JUN 9 2015

UPDATED POP FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AND WED MORNING BASED
ON THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR AND NAM12.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM MDT TUE JUN 9 2015

...REMNANTS OF BLANCA BEGINNING TO FILTER INTO THE REGION...

THE CONVECTIVE CAP OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO IS GETTING A FEW HOLES IN
IT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW WEAK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING TO POP THROUGH. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...MOST NUMEROUS OVER AND NEAR THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS.

OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE CORE OF BLANCA`S MOISTURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE. THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
HEADED OUR WAY. THIS MORNING...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE
150 PERCENT OF NORMAL AT FLAGSTAFF...AND 226 PERCENT OF NORMAL AT
ALBUQUERQUE. THESE TYPES OF PERCENTAGES WILL LIKELY BE OVER OUR
AREA BY TOMORROW MORNING AS BLANCA MOVES ACROSS. THIS MEANS
MORE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING IF OVER THE
WRONG BURN SCAR...URBAN AREA OR SWOLLEN CREEK.

THE OTHER THREAT THAT IS RETURNING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. NOT ONLY WILL
THERE BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH BLANCA MOVING
THROUGH...BUT THERE WILL ALSO INSTABILITY...AND INCREASING AMOUNTS
OF SHEAR AS YOU NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER. AFTER STARTING OUT FROM THE
SOUTHWEST EARLY IN THE DAY...SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST NEAR THE BORDER BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS
MEANS ANY STORMS MOVING EAST WILL BE WORKING INTO BETTER AND BETTER
INFLOW...AND LIKELY DEEPER MOISTURE. SO...ANOTHER BUSY DAY ON
TAP...IN MULTIPLE WAYS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM MDT TUE JUN 9 2015

NOT MANY LONGER TERM ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED AS UNSETTLED METEOROLOGICAL
PATTERN SHOULD BE NOTED DURING THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM.

PRIMARY METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES CONTINUE TO BE POPS(INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL AS STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS AT TIMES) AND TEMPERATURES.

RECENT LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...PV ANALYSIS AND
FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES AND
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGES AT TIMES TO PRODUCE AN
ACTIVE METEOROLOGICAL PATTERN DURING THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER
TERM(ESPECIALLY FROM LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT).

AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF WIDESPREAD
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN(AND ASSOCIATED FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD THREAT) SHOULD
NOTED FROM LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. IF THE MOIST
METEOROLOGICAL TRENDS CONTINUE...HYDRO HIGHLIGHTS MAY BECOME
NECESSARY IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO AS THE POTENTIAL EVENT DRAWS
CLOSER...PLEASE STAY TUNED.

IN ADDITION...AN ELEVATED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SHOULD DEVELOP
FROM LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT(ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS) AS PROJECTED LOCALIZED CAPES/LIS AND BULK LAYERED WIND
SHEARS NEAR 1000+ J/KG...-5C AND 45 KNOTS AT TIMES RESPECTIVELY.

STILL ANTICIPATE THAT ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE EARLY TO MID
JUNE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NOTED INTO THURSDAY EVENING WITH NEAR
TO BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THEN EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO NEXT MONDAY WITH WARMER CONDITIONS THEN RE-DEVELOPING BY
NEXT TUESDAY.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE WARMEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
DURING THE LONGER TERM SHOULD BE REALIZED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH COOLEST CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED PROJECTED FRIDAY.
FINALLY...HAVE ALSO DEPICTED SOME HIGHER MOUNTAIN SNOW BY LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM MDT TUE JUN 9 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT
OR NR THE TAF SITES...WITH KALS POSSIBLY SEEING PCPN BEGINNING IN
THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS.

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR COZ064>075-078.

UPDATE...28
AVIATION...28

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

1111 PM MDT TUE JUN 9 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1110 PM MDT TUE JUN 9 2015

UPDATED POP FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AND WED MORNING BASED
ON THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR AND NAM12.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM MDT TUE JUN 9 2015

...REMNANTS OF BLANCA BEGINNING TO FILTER INTO THE REGION...

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM MDT TUE JUN 9 2015

NOT MANY LONGER TERM ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED AS UNSETTLED METEOROLOGICAL
PATTERN SHOULD BE NOTED DURING THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM.

PRIMARY METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES CONTINUE TO BE POPS(INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL AS STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS AT TIMES) AND TEMPERATURES.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 353 PM MDT TUE JUN 9 2015

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF
SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH POSSIBLE OUTFLOW
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...ESPECIALLY AT KCOS AND KALS.

OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE FLIGHT AREA AS THE REMNANTS OF FORMER
HURRICANE BLANCA SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL YIELD
INCREASING MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS YIELDING MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR/LIFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS. SOME OF THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS ARE INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AT KALS BY AROUND 06Z
TONIGHT...REACHING KCOS AND KPUB BY AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
TERMINALS...THEY MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL THEN CONTINUE RATHER NUMEROUS THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY.

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR COZ064>075-078.

UPDATE...28

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BOISE ID

308 AM MDT WED JUN 10 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY. DRIER AIR WILL
OVER CENTRAL OREGON WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
END ACROSS OREGON BY MID-MORNING. IN IDAHO...RADAR DATA SHOWED THAT
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE BOISE
MOUNTAINS SOUTHWESTWARD BETWEEN BOISE AND MOUNTAIN HOME TO NEAR
SILVER CITY WAS NEARLY STATIONARY AT 3 AM. THIS LINE IS A LITTLE
TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN DEPICTING THAT IT
WOULD DEVELOP. THIS BAND SHOULD SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD LATER THIS
MORNING WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND
EAST OF BOISE IN THE AFTERNOON. TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...BUT 6 TO 8 DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY. EXPECT LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW
WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...DRY WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
WESTERN CANADA WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH SATURDAY. ON
SUNDAY MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH DEEPENING AND THE FLOW OVER OUR AREA
BECOMING MORE MOIST. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT STILL AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING...BECOMING NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS. AFTER 00Z THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF A
KLKV-KREO-KBOI-KMYL LINE...ENDING BY 06Z. SURFACE WINDS...NORTHWEST
5-10 KTS EXCEPT GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
ALOFT...NORTHWEST 10-15 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...JB
LONG TERM....JT
AVIATION.....JT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

355 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

.SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

CONVECTIVE TRENDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST STARTING IMMEDIATELY BEFORE SUNRISE AND LASTING THROUGH
THIS EVENING UNTIL THE COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH OF THE OHIO BORDER.
THE MOST FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE BEST COMBINATION OF COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORMS IS SHAPING UP TO BE DURING THE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY LESS COVERAGE BUT STILL
A CONDITIONAL THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.

THE 00Z DTX SOUNDING SETS THE STAGE FOR THE EARLY MORNING/NOCTURNAL
TRENDS. IT SHOWS SOME TEMPORARY CAPPING WARMTH JUST ABOVE 700 MB DUE
TO SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING SHORT WAVE RIDGE AND DRY
AIR FROM THERE TO THE TROPOPAUSE...GOOD FOR STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
ALOFT JUST DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH LOW TO
MID LEVEL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES THAT ARE GENERATING INSTABILITY
OVERHEAD AT PRESS TIME AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE
MORNING. THE 00Z GRB SOUNDING PREVIEWS THE INITIAL STAGES AND
SUPPORTS MODEL DEPICTIONS OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM IN THE
700-500 MB LAYER...AS WELL AS MOISTURE ADVECTION BELOW 700
MB...INDICATED TO ARRIVE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN
BETWEEN 2 AM AND 8 AM. USING 850 LI AROUND -3 IN THE GFS AND RAP TO
AS LOW AS -5 IN THE NAM SUGGESTS IMPRESSIVE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING AS THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE IS DRIVEN THROUGH THE
REGION BY THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND RESULTING LARGE MID LEVEL CAPE
DENSITY...ALONG WITH A STRONG WIND FIELD INCREASING TO ABOUT 45
KNOTS AT 500 MB WILL MAKE LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY HAZARD INITIALLY
AND THEN BOTH HAIL AND WIND FOR ANY CONVECTION THAT CAN BECOME
SURFACE BASED BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE EARLY PHASE OF THIS EVENT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD WITH THE UPPER
WAVE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH ATTENTION THEN TURNING TO THE COLD
FRONT FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. POCKETS OF CONVECTION
WITH DECREASING COVERAGE WILL LIKELY TRAIL NE TO SW FROM THE EARLY
DAY ACTIVITY ALONG THE COLD FRONT DURING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
DURING THIS TIME...LARGER SCALE SUPPORT WILL BECOME LESS FAVORABLE
DUE TO WAKE SUBSIDENCE IN THE MID LEVELS FOLLOWING THE SHORT WAVE
EXIT INTO ONTARIO AND UNDER THE RIGHT EXIT REGION/SOUTH FLANK OF THE
UPPER JET. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT INDICATING 500 MB TEMPS
WARMING FROM NEAR -12C DURING THE MORNING TO NEAR -7C BY 00Z THIS
EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE PARCELS CLOSE TO BEING CAPPED
IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER...BUT NOT CONVINCINGLY. THE LATEST RAP
OFFERS CAPE AROUND 2500 J/KG FOR ANY UPDRAFT THAT CAN BECOME
ESTABLISHED WITH A SURFACE PARCEL IN THE UPPER 80S/UPPER 60S. THE
FORECAST GIVES STORMS A CHANCE TO FORM WITH A 40 POP NEAR THE OHIO
BORDER LATE IN THE DIURNAL CYCLE THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. CONDITIONAL
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE MORE DUE TO WIND THAN HAIL AS FREEZING
LEVEL REACHES NEAR 14000 FT AND 0-6 KM SHEAR REMAINS NEAR 35 KNOTS.

.LONG TERM...

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE MICHIGAN
BORDER DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...AS WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE
SURFACE HOLDS OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. 850 MB TEMPS CLIMBING
INTO THE MID TEENS SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH WEAK WIND FIELD WILL PROMOTE LAKE BREEZES.

UPPER LEVEL ENERGY/JET COMING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
TODAY...INTERACTING WITH PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH...WITH SURGE OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE OUT OF AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL
TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT. MODELS
ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE
SYSTEM...SETTING US UP FOR A POTENTIAL DRY SATURDAY...BUT IT REMAINS
A CLOSE CALL AND CHANCE POPS WILL CONTINUE AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE DIFFICULT TO DISLODGE.

BEFORE WE GET TO SATURDAY...PLENTY OF RAIN EXPECTED WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAKING OUT AROUND 2 INCHES...700 MB DEW
PTS OF 5 TO 6 C...AND 850 MB DEW PTS OF 15 C OR SLIGHTLY BETTER BY
FRIDAY EVENING. WILL HAVE TO BE CAUTIOUS ON FRIDAY...AS WE PUNCH
INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND POTENTIALLY GENERATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
TAP INTO THE 45 TO 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JETS AT 850/700 MB WORKING
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN LATE IN THE DAY. ALSO...0-1 KM BULK SHEAR
LOOKS TO BE RUNNING A CONCERNING 25 KNOTS OR SLIGHTLY
BETTER...ULTIMATELY DEPENDENT ON STRENGTH OF THE LOW TRACKING
THROUGH MICHIGAN. MLCAPES PROGGED TO BE RUNNING 1000 J/KG OR
SLIGHTLY HIGHER...AND THUS NEED TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER...IN ADDITION TO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. FRIDAY LOOKS TO
BE VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY AS 850 MB TEMPS RISE TO 17-18 C
(SUPPORTING SOLID 80S IF RAIN IS SLOW TO DEVELOP)...WITH DEW PTS
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.

.MARINE...

STRONG SOUTHWEST GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ALONG
THE NEARSHORE WATERS AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. POST
FRONTAL WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING DO NOT LOOK AS
STRONG...AND WINDS WILL BECOME VERY LIGHT LATE TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA...PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY. A
MOISTURE LADEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH ON
FRIDAY...TRIGGERING HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE LOW
TRACK THROUGH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN...COULD SEE SOUTHWEST WINDS
REACH BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER LAKE ST CLAIR AND WESTERN LAKE
ERIE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR.

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1155 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015

MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL STEADILY INCREASE OVERNIGHT
UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A LOW POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...CENTERED BETWEEN 08Z AND
12Z. CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND COVERAGE APPEARS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE ANY SPECIFIC MENTION AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE THIS PROCESS
WILL BRING PERIODIC POCKETS OF THICKER MID CLOUD /CIGS ABOVE 6K
FT/ THROUGH THE MORNING PERIOD. SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH DAYTIME MIXING PROVIDING AN ADDED GUST
COMPONENT INTO THE 25 KNOT RANGE. WINDOW FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT /MAINLY DETROIT CORRIDOR/ LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

FOR DTW...LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM 08Z-12Z WITH
AN ACCOMPANYING REDUCTION IN CEILING AT/BELOW 5000 FT. NO EXPLICIT
INCLUSION IN TAFS ATTM.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR CEILING OF 5000 FT OR LESS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ421-422-
441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ444.

SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....MR

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

330 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING
TRIGGERING A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL DRY
OUT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT... BUT MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BY LATE THURSDAY AND
ESPECIALLY FOR FRIDAY AS THE FRONT RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER S CNTL AND SE
LWR MI ALONG THE EASTWARD MOVING H8 WARM FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM
ROUGHLY NRN LK MI SE TOWARD THE DETROIT AREA. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD
BE MOSTLY EAST OF LAN/JXN EARLY THIS MORNING ON THE NOSE OF A 40 KT
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET AND IN AREA OF MU CAPE OF 500-750 J/KG.
HOWEVER THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS WISCONSIN
COMES IN QUICKLY AFTER 6 AM AND THIS SHOULD ALSO HAVE A FEW SHOWERS
OR STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT PER LATEST SHORT RANGE HRRR SOLUTIONS.

THE COLD FRONT TIMES THROUGH THE GRR BY NOON THEN SLOWS/STALLS ALONG
OR JUST SOUTH OF I-94 FOR THIS AFTERNOON. A WEST-EAST BAND OF
DIURNAL SFC BASED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP/INTENSIFY ALONG THE FRONT...
ALTHOUGH BASED ON THE LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WHICH DEVELOPS OVER
WRN LWR MI BEHIND THE FRONT AND LACK OF SFC CONVERGENCE... SUSPECT
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BECOME ORIENTED JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA ALONG THE
MI/IND BORDER AFTER 3 PM. WILL KEEP LOW CHC POPS FROM AZO TO JXN
THIS AFTERNOON OTHERWISE WILL GO DRY/SUNNY BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE TREND WITH THE FRIDAY SYSTEM IS TO TAKE THE AXIS OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL FARTHER NORTH INTO NRN LWR MI. HOWEVER THIS COULD LEAD TO
AN INCREASED SVR WX THREAT FOR SRN LWR MI SINCE WE GET MORE FIRMLY
INTO THE WARM SECTOR WITH SFC DEW PTS NEAR 70 AND SFC BASED CAPES
EXCEEDING 1500 J/KG...OR MORE DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF SFC HEATING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY UNSETTLED
WITH PLENTY OF CHCS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE
WILL SEE TEMPERATURES HOLD AROUND AVERAGE LEVELS THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD.

WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME RESIDUAL STORM CHCS LINGERING INTO FRI
EVENING AFTER POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER ON FRI. THE SUPPORTING UPPER
WAVE AND SFC LOW WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AT 00Z SAT AND THEN SLIPPING NE
OF THE AREA THEREAFTER. FAR SERN AREAS COULD EVEN SEE A FEW SHOWERS
ON SAT MORNING...HOWEVER MOST OF THE PCPN SHOULD COME TO A BRIEF END
FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON SAT.

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN PCPN ON SAT NIGHT...STORM CHCS WILL INCREASE
ON SUN AND PEAK SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING ONCE AGAIN. AN
ESTABLISHED BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN STATES WILL SETUP A SW FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WE WILL SEE ANOTHER BETTER DEFINED SHORT
WAVE EJECT FROM THE BROAD TROUGH AND HEAD TOWARD THE AREA. WE COULD
SNEAK INTO THE WARM SECTOR ONCE AGAIN...BRINGING A CHC FOR SOME
SEVERE WX TO THE AREA ALONG WITH A HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH PCPN CHCS THEN FOR THE MON AND TUE
TIME FRAME. WE WILL SEE THE LATE SUN WAVE MOVE BY...WHICH SHOULD
PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR A BIT. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS HOWEVER THAT YET ANOTHER WAVE COULD MOVE ALONG THE
STALLED OUT FRONT ON TUE BRINGING MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
AREA. WE WILL HAVE A CHC FOR THOSE DAYS...AND MONITOR THE POTENTIAL
OF HAVING TO BOOST THE CHCS. HEAVY RAINFALL COULD BECOME A BIGGER
PLAYER WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 152 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR AVIATION INTERESTS WITH THE 06Z FCSTS IS
THE POTENTIAL OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS. SOME
ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED TO OUR WEST EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH THE BIGGEST CONCENTRATION ACROSS UPPER MI. WE
EXPECT THAT POTENTIAL TO MOVE IN OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 4 HOURS FROM
WEST TO EAST. WE ARE NOT SURE THAT THE TERMINALS WILL SEE
PCPN...SO WE HAVE GONE WITH A VCTS FOR NOW.

THERE IS ALSO SOME CONCERN FOR LLWS THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. THE LOW
LEVEL WIND MAX OF AROUND 45 KNOTS AROUND 2-5K FEET WILL BE COMING
OVERHEAD. IT DOES SEEM THAT ENOUGH WIND AT THE SFC WILL LIMIT THE
DIFFERENCE/SHEAR...SO WE HAVE OPTED TO NOT MENTION IT FOR THE TIME
BEING.

ANY STORMS THAT DO POP UP AROUND THE AREA THIS MORNING SHOULD BE
MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY 17Z AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA. SKIES
SHOULD THEN CLEAR OUT AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH.

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

WILL CONTINUE THE SHORT DURATION SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS MORNING
AS LOW LEVEL JET IMPACTS LK MI AHEAD OF APCHG SFC COLD FRONT. MKG IS
CURRENTLY CURRENTLY GUSTING OVER 25 KTS.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1149 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015

THERE ARE NO IMMEDIATE CONCERNS ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS. THERE
MAY BE IMPACTFUL PRECIPITATION LATER IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN POSSIBLE.

PERIODIC CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE FIRST WAVE IS VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
WILL MAINLY BE FOCUSED THROUGH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE NEAR/NORTH
OF BALDWIN...REED CITY AND HARRISON. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A PREVIOUSLY DEVELOPED COMPLEX FROM WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER
PENINSULA. IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT GETS INTO THE DRIER
AIR FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA IS LESS LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY STRONGER STORMS.

THE NEXT WAVE MAY BE MORE SIGNIFICANT FRIDAY WITH INCREASING PWAT
VALUES TO AROUND 2 INCHES AND GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION.
THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE A KEY PLAYER IN
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN SETS UP. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL END UP OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BUT DECENT
RAIN AMOUNTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE CWA. THIS BOUNDARY MAY SAG
SOUTHWARD A BIT BY SUNDAY...BRINGING YET ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVIER
RAIN THROUGH THE AREA.

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LMZ844>849.

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...MEADE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

153 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 928 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015

...SEVERE TS THREAT FOR UPR MI SEEMS TO BE DIMINISHING...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE W ON WED WILL LEAD TO CLEARING
CONDITIONS...WITH HIGHS IN HE 60S AND 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 152 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

SHOWERS AND TS IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG COLD FNT WILL IMPACT SAW EARLY
IN THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS MAIN THREAT. FOLLOWING THE COLD FROPA
BY ABOUT 08Z AT SAW...A STEADY WNW WIND WL TURN GUSTY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING ON WED. BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES AND ALLOWS FOR VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE ON WED...SOME UPSLOPE LO CLDS/MVFR OR EVEN
IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AT IWD AND ESPECIALLY CMX. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015 (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR
FORECAST ISSUANCE)

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...TITUS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO

406 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 358 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

Today/Tonight: A hot and humid day is on tap for the forecast area
today. With mostly sunny skies and a 23C H85 thermal axis over the
area, expect highs to reach the lower to middle 90s. When factoring
in the humidity, heat indices may climb to 100 degrees in some
areas. This is relatively noteworthy considering it`s one of the
first days of heat indices this high.

Other than the heat, attention will then turn to convective
potential later today/tonight. A weak cold front currently analyzed
from central Nebraska into northwest Iowa will slowly slide south
and become quasi-stationary near the Iowa/Missouri border by late
afternoon. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to form
along/in the vicinity of this frontal boundary, although model
solutions vary on the timing and coverage of convection. The HRRR is
one of the earliest CI solutions, developing storms by mid-
afternoon. This is likely in response to very warm surface
temperatures, approaching 100 degrees along the boundary, and
likewise reaches convective temperature quickly. Other solutions are
more delayed which seems reasonable, and tend to believe isolated
thunderstorms may develop along the front between 5-7pm as low-level
convergence and eroding surface inhibition commence. As for the
severe weather potential, moderate to extreme instability will reside
along the boundary. The saving grace to help mitigate a notable
severe weather event will be the lack of deep layer shear. While
SBCAPE may exceed 4000 J/KG, bulk shear will generally be around 10
kts, owing to shorter-lived and less organized storms as a whole.
Will have to watch late this afternoon/evening carefully, as
instability this high can allow strong updrafts to occasionally
compensate during short periods of time for the lack of deep layer
shear. The most probable area for convection and attendant severe
weather will be north of Highway 36. The threat for severe weather
tonight will gradually decrease as the loss of maximum diurnal
instability is lost and the frontal boundary slowly lifts to the
north of the area.

Thursday: Run-to-run consistency has been good lately depicting a
lead upper wave to move through Kansas during the early morning hours
on Thursday. In fact, thunderstorms may initially develop over
western Kansas from this impulse overnight and track eastward across
portions of Kansas, maintained by a strong low-level jet. However,
the time of arrival of these storms and the likely cold pool struggle
suggests that maintenance of this convection into our forecast area
is much more uncertain by sunrise Thursday. The highest probability
will be over NW MO, closer to the track of the upper wave. Much of
Thursday is then expected to be dry, with temperatures once again
reaching the 90s in the cloud-free areas. A secondary wave will
rotate in on the backside of the lead wave and move across Iowa
Thursday night. This wave and its associated cold front will be the
focus for another round of thunderstorms Thursday afternoon/evening
initially just to our northwest. As the cold front approaches, strong
low-level forcing and upper ascent should allow for thunderstorms to
develop and move into far NW MO by sunset. The potential for severe
weather will exist with this storms, with moderate instability on the
order of 2500 J/KG and bulk shear of 30 kts. Furthermore, shear
vectors are initially somewhat perpendicular to the boundary, perhaps
delaying an immediate onset to a squall line. Thunderstorms will move
southeast/eastward overnight, but may eventually have trouble
remaining well-organized and become lesser in coverage as the
strongest ascent quickly moves off to the north/east, instability
wanes, and the low-level jet notably veers, likely favoring
convection over Kansas.

Friday into next week: The aforementioned frontal boundary will slide
through much of the CWA before stalling on Friday, but will provide
a cooler day. There may be a window for dry weather during the day,
and if so, may allow for a nice day. However, the boundary will lift
back north Friday night, setting the stage for more active weather.
Southwesterly flow aloft becomes established from the Southern
Plains northeastward into the Missouri Valley during this period,
with several upper waves projected to parade through the forecast
area. Additionally, the quasi-stationary cold front is expected to
reside over/near the CWA into the weekend, aiding in a focus for
convection coupled with the ascent from the upper disturbances. The
signal is such that multiple rounds of thunderstorms and attendant
heavy rainfall potential will exist over portions of the CWA. The
general theme of established southwest flow persisting over the
region suggests that additional chances of rain will exist during
early next week. The potential for flooding may exist if multiple
rounds of rain fall over the same areas. Currently, areas with the
highest risk of heavy rainfall will be across the NW half of the
forecast area, where basin averages of 2-4 inches of rain could fall
during the seven-day forecast period. As with forecasted convection
well in advance, much uncertainty exists with specific rainfall
amounts and locations. Daily high temperatures will remain much
cooler with the expected cloud cover and rainfall, with highs in the
70s and lower 80s.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015

VFR conditions will persist through the next 24 hours. A scattered
mid-level cloud layer will cross into the area early Wednesday
morning and could see increasing clouds toward the end of the period,
though currently thinking this will remain north of the terminal
sites. There is a chance for convective activity to develop
well north along the Missouri/Iowa border Wednesday afternoon and
evening, so have held off including in forecast for now as any
activity that develops will then move northeast.

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Welsh

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

1145 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 909 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2015

Britt

.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2015

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2015

(Wednesday - Thursday)

A new MCS is expected to develop well to the west during the evening
and then track eastward and should remain to our north, with
maintenance of a low PoP seeming reasonable.

(Friday - Next Tuesday)

Temps should be at least seasonal normals, but suspect most days
will be above.

TES

.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2015

Going forecast is on track in that there is still a slight chance
of thunderstorms between 09-13Z over northern MO/west central IL.
However this chance still looks to be too low to include in the
KUIN TAF. This front will become stationary just north of KUIN
and additional thunderstorms may develop along it again on
Wednesday afternoon, but chances again are not high enough to
warrant including them in the TAF. Otherwise, TAFs only reflect
wind shifts and development of cumulus tomorrow morning.

Specifics for KSTL: Dry and VFR conditions are expected through
the TAF period with light south winds turning back southwesterly
by mid morning.

Britt

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

413 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK... WHILE A WEAK TROUGH OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE HOLDS OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS... BRINGING LOW RAIN
CHANCES AND HOT TEMPERATURES.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM WEDNESDAY...

A WEAK FRONT/TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN VA ISN`T MAKING MUCH PROGRESS
TOWARD NC THIS MORNING...THOUGH THE HRRR STILL SHOWS THE BOUNDARY
SLIPPING INTO THE PIEDMONT BY MID-MORNING. MEANWHILE...DRIER AIR
ALOFT NOTED JUST WEST OF THE AREA ON WATER VAPOR WILL SHIFT EAST
OVER THE PIEDMONT AND THE COMBINATION OF THE DRIER AIR AND DEEP
MIXING WILL KEEP MOST OF THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT CAPPED
TODAY. TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...WHERE PW WILL STILL BE HIGH...1.5 TO
1.75 INCHES...MODEST INSTABILITY SHOULD REDEVELOP AND SUPPORT
SCATTED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL
BE WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY AND A LACK OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL
LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. DON`T SEE MUCH NEED TO CHANCE THE CURRENT
FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS.
HIGHS WILL BE A DEGREE OR SO WARMER THAN ON TUESDAY...88-91.

IN THE ABSENCE OF FORCING ALOFT....CONVECTION WILL BE MOSTLY DIURNAL
IN NATURE...COMING TO AN END AFTER SUNSET. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM WEDNESDAY...

HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO RISE ON THURSDAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BUILDS BACK TO THE WEST. MOST MODELS
SUGGEST AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION AS THE DISTURBANCE OVER
SOUTHERN GA THIS MORNING DRIFTS NORTH OVER THE AREA...ALBEIT AT A
WEAKER STATE. WEAK FLOW WILL PRECLUDE A SEVERE THREAT BUT HEAVY
DOWNPOURS COULD POSED A LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT AS PW CREEPS BACK
INTO THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S AND
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE MORE READINGS IN THE LOW 70S.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM WEDNESDAY...

..A TRANSITION TOWARD SUMMERTIME IN CENTRAL NC..

THE COMBINATION OF THE TAIL END OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE
NORTHEAST US AND AN UPPER LOW EVOLVING OVER THE GOM THIS MORNING
WILL MAINTAIN A SHEAR AXIS ALOFT INVOF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND
CAROLINAS THROUGH SAT. HOT AND SUBSIDENT SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING WILL
OTHERWISE STRENGTHEN AND EXPAND WEST FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO THE
SOUTHEAST US THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH LOWERING HEIGHTS ALOFT
ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...NEAR BERMUDA...WILL ALLOW A
SURFACE COLD FRONT/LESS HOT TEMPERATURES/FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO SETTLE BRIEFLY SOUTH INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES SUN-
MON.

WHILE THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR AXIS AND EMBEDDED
IMPULSES MAY PROVIDE A WEAK IMPETUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FRI-
SAT...PARTICULARLY WHERE THERMAL CIRCULATIONS ALONG THE SEA AND
VALLEY BREEZES FOCUS LOW LEVEL FORCING...THE INFLUENCE OF THE
BUILDING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD OTHERWISE KEEP ANY
CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL NC ISOLATED AT BEST THROUGH SAT. THE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL THEN PEAK IN THE CHANCE
RANGE...OVER THE NE PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT NEARS AND BECOMES DIFFUSE SUN-MON.

WHILE THIS WILL BE THE FIRST EXTENDED PERIOD OF 90 DEGREE
TEMPERATURES OVER CENTRAL NC...HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK
SEVERAL DEGREES OR MORE SHY OF ADVISORY CRITERIA/BETWEEN 99-102
DEGREES OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS/IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
ELSEWHERE. IN FACT...THE HOTTEST DAY TEMPERATURE-WISE ON SAT WILL
LIKELY BE A DAY OF LOWEST SURFACE DEWPOINTS/RH VALUES OWING TO A ~20
KT 850 MB WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM WEDNESDAY...

BIGGEST CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRATUS AND/OR FOG IN THE WAKE OF LAST EVENING`S CONVECTION. A VERY
WEAK COLD FRONT NORTH OF KINT/KGSO WILL SLIP SOUTH INTO THE AREA BUT
WILL ONLY BRING A WEAK WIND SHIFT AND MINIMAL CHANGE IN AIRMASS.
MEANWHILE... HIGH CLOUDS CURRENTLY ENSHROUDING THE AREA WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EAST...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR/IFR VSBYS ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...WITH BETTER POTENTIAL FOR IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS FROM
KRCZ TO KFAY WHERE RAIN WAS VERY HEAVY LAST EVENING.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY IN THE VICINITY OF KRWI AND KFAY....THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION AND TIMING IS LOW. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND SLOWLY BECOMING SOUTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

OUTLOOK... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION STARTING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...LIMITING AVIATION
CONCERNS TO PRIMARILY EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG...THOUGH AN
ISOLATED STORM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...22

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

345 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM WEDNESDAY...

IN THE ABSENCE OF FORCING ALOFT....CONVECTION WILL BE MOSTLY DIURNAL
IN NATURE...COMING TO AN END AFTER SUNSET. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM WEDNESDAY...

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...

A MID/UPR RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SE STATES FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC DURING THE PERIOD...WITH A 593 DAM 500MB RIDGE CENTERED
OVER GA/SC BY TUESDAY. THE MAIN WEATHER STORY DURING THIS TIME WILL
BE INCREASED HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH PERHAPS AN INCREASE IN HEAT-
RELATED IMPACTS TO AREA RESIDENTS AND ESP OUTDOOR WORKERS DUE TO THE
FIRST-OF-THE-SEASON PROLONGED STRING OF DAYS OF 90-95+ DEGREE HEAT
WITH HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 100. LOWS EACH NIGHT IN LOWER 70S.

IN TERMS OF PRECIP CHANCES...MAJOR SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL BE
LACKING LATE IN THE WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND...SO THE BEST CHANCE FOR
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE AND TO OUR WEST NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...THUS WILL KEEP
DAYTIME POPS NEAR OR BELOW CLIMO VALUES. HOWEVER...LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS HINT THAT A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE MAY DROP SOUTH ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...OR PERHAPS OVER THE CAROLINAS...WHICH
WOULD INCREASE OUR RAIN CHANCES WITH EACH PASSING ONE. THE GFS STILL
SEEMS A LITTLE AGGRESSIVE PUSHING A COLD FRONT THIS FAR SOUTH SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...BUT NONETHELESS...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVES
SHOULD GIVE US AT LEAST CHANCE POPS LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM WEDNESDAY...

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...22

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

337 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

CURRENTLY...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM THE
HIGH CENTER OVER ALBERTA SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
INTO THE DAKOTAS. MEANWHILE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER MONTANA
AND WYOMING. AT UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSES WERE
MOVING EAST ACROSS MONTANA...WITH MORE IMPULSES FROM A SHORTWAVE
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF COLORADO/WYOMING. THESE IMPULSES WERE
ASSOCIATED WITH CURRENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING OVER
MONTANA AND WYOMING: AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOPED OVER MONTANA TUESDAY EVENING CONTINUED MOVING EAST
AND WERE IN EASTERN MONTANA. CONVECTION FARTHER SOUTH IN WYOMING WAS
MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.

ALL SHORT TERM REGIONAL AND GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE STATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE MODELS ARE ALSO DEPICTING THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BEING
MORE WIDESPREAD AND REACHING FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS.

IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...A MORE CONTINUOUS CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS
WAS OVER CUSTER AND PRAIRIE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA. THE
SHORT TERM HRRR AND RAP MODELS INDICATE THE CONVECTION ENTERING
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BEFORE DAYBREAK...AND CONTINUE DEVELOPING
AND SPREADING EAST. THESE MODELS ARE ALSO HANDLING THE CONVECTION
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MONTANA AND BRING THAT PRECIPITATION
EASTWARD AS WELL INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AFTER DAYBREAK.

KEPT THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL...BUT ALSO RAISED CHANCES IN THE NORTH AS EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THERE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

COOLER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY WITH CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION. LOOKING
AT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
TEMPERATURES IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL REACH ONLY
INTO THE UPPER 60S. LOWS TONIGHT AGAIN IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

A TYPICAL EARLY TO MID JUNE PATTERN WITH NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE GLOBAL 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN
AGREEMENT ON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUING
ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THURSDAY AS THE LAST SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT IMPACTS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE CONSENSUS IS FOR A DRY
FRIDAY WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE REGION. THEREAFTER...NEAR
DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THIS WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY WITH A DEEPENING WESTERN CANADA UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE FLOW
PATTERN IS THEN FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO QUASI-ZONAL TUESDAY
INTO MID NEXT WEEK...SUPPORTIVE OF LOW PREDICTABILITY IMPULSES AT
THIS TIME RANGE EMBEDDED IN THE FAST UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO MAINTAIN
AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE IT IS STILL
EARLY FOR DETAILS...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
CONVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY GIVEN THE FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN AND MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE REGION.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD...AT LEAST UNTIL AFTER 00Z...THOUGH SOME MVFR IS POSSIBLE
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PERSISTING IN CENTRAL MONTANA AT 05Z WERE MOVING INTO EASTERN
MONTANA. EXPECT CONVECTION TO HOLD TOGETHER AND POSSIBLY REACH
KISN/KDIK AROUND 10Z-12Z. SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATING MORE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THUS
BROUGHT MENTION OF VCSH INTO KISN AND KDIK AROUND 10Z AND REMAINING
FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS SPREADING/DEVELOPING EAST DURING
THE DAY INTO KBIS AND EVENTUALLY TO KJMS. TOO UNCERTAIN ABOUT KMOT.
CIGS AND VSBYS LOWERING TO MVFR AT KISN/KDIK/KBIS/KJMS AFTER 00Z IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND FOG.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

1243 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

CONVECTION IN CENTRAL MONTANA WAS SPREADING/DEVELOPING IN NORTH
CENTRAL MONTANA. THESE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
MOVING EASTWARD INTO EASTERN MONTANA. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL RUNS
INDICATE THE CONVECTION HOLDING TOGETHER AND REACHING WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA BEFORE/AROUND DAYBREAK. BROUGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER NORTH INTO THE WILLISTON AREA FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL BE RE-EVALUATING THE DAYTIME PRECIP CHANCES
FOR NEXT FORECAST UPDATE.

OTHERWISE TEMPS...WIND...AND SKY COVER FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 956 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015

SLIGHT CHANGES WERE MADE TO SKY COVER AND POPS...THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

405 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST TO
QUEBEC BY LATE TODAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW WILL DROP INTO
THE AREA THIS EVENING AND THEN STALL THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
DRIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE HRRR HINTS AT DEVELOPING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH WEAK UPPER SUPPORT ACROSS SRN LWR MI EARLY
THIS MORNING AND THEN EXPANDING IT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE
AREA. A QUICK LOOK AT THE RADAR SHOW THE FIRST OF THESE SHOWERS
ALREADY WEST OF DETROIT MOVING SOUTHEAST. BY 15Z THE HRRR HINTS
AT THE ENTIRE AREA BEING VULNERABLE TO SHOWERS BEFORE DRIFTING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE MORNING JUST AS ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION FIRES TO OUR WEST ON THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL
HAVE CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE MORNING EVERYWHERE FOR THE FIRST
BATCH. THIS AFTERNOON WILL HAVE HIGHER CHANCE POPS DROPPING SSE
ACROSS THE AREA. WARM AIR MOVES IN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH 50MB TEMPS
18-20C. THIS IS GOOD FOR UPPER 80S WITH A ROGUE 90 NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION WEST.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THIS EVENING THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE JUST TO OUR NORTH/NORTHWEST
WITH ONGOING SCATTERED CONVECTION LIKELY ONGOING IN THE AREA AND
ALONG THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING REACHING JUST SOUTH OF A FORT WAYNE TO MANSFIELD LINE BY
THURSDAY MORNING. FOLLOWING 925MB NAM TEMPS IT APPEARS THE FRONT
DRIFTS NORTH A BIT THROUGH THE DAY AND THEN CONTINUES NORTH
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM IOWA TO THE
CENTRAL LAKES. FOR TONIGHT WILL INCREASE POPS TO HIGH CHANCE AND
LIKELY GIVEN THAT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AS THE
FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA. WILL ALLOW FOR A DIURNAL DECREASE TO
LOW CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE TOWARDS MORNING THURSDAY. FOR THE DAY
THURSDAY WILL GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AS PARENT LOW WILL BE WELL
NORTHEAST IN QUEBEC AND FORCING SHIFTS WEST TO DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WILL BOOST POPS BACK TO HIGH
CHANCE AND LIKELY FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WARM AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION. IT APPEARS THAT A LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AXIS WILL BE DRAPED OVERHEAD TO START THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND
MAY TRY TO LIFT NORTH AS A THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES ALOFT. LEFT POPS NEAR
40 PERCENT WITH SOME CONCERN THAT WARM AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS AND A
LACK OF A SUBSTANTIAL TRIGGER MAY LIMIT COVERAGE. CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDS THE RIDGE AND KICKS OFF THUNDERSTORMS. TOO FAR OUT TO
RESOLVE THESE FEATURES BUT IT LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE PATTERN
CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
EXTENDED WITH MILD NIGHTS.

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TODAY WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH INTO THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. BEFORE THAT TIME...CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY
EXCEPT A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE WARM FRONT AT TOL AROUND
10Z AND A LESSER CHANCE AT CLE TOWARDS 14Z. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER 21Z...BUT MAY TAKE UNTIL 00Z TO REALLY
GET GOING. TIMING WILL NEED TO BE REFINED THROUGHOUT THE DAY BASED
ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS. ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OF 35-50 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL
BE VFR OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON-VFR FRI THRU SUN WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA.

.MARINE...
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THE LAKE TODAY AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. HAVE ISSUED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WITH WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS IN THE NEARSHORE
WATERS TODAY AND WAVES INCREASING TO 2 TO 4 FEET. THE WINDOW FOR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL SPAN FROM ABOUT NOON ON THE WEST END TO
10 PM ON THE EAST END. SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AS IT TRAVERSES THE LAKE...MAINLY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE LAKE ON FRIDAY WITH
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AGAIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WARM AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR LEZ147>149.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR LEZ142>146.

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SIOUX FALLS SD

1107 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 11/00Z. POSSIBLE THAT PRECIPITATION
COULD BEGIN TO AFFECT TAF SITES AFTER 11/03Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN TIMING AT THIS TIME...AND THUS WILL LEAVE TAFS DRY FOR
NOW.

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...JH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

1151 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015

.AVIATION...
EVENING STORMS HAVE DISSIPATED SAVE FOR A FEW AROUND KLFK... BUT
SHOW A CONTINUED WEAKENING TREND AND ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE NO
IMPACT FOR THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS TERMINALS TONIGHT. HRRR GUIDANCE
STILL DEVELOPS EARLY MORNING SHOWERS ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF FROM THIS EVENING/S STORMS OVER SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA AND THESE MAY REACH AS FAR NORTH AS KGLS AFTER 11Z.
OTHERWISE... DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... WITH VFR CONDITIONS
AND LIGHT S/SE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 7 TO 10 KNOTS DURING THE
DAY.

HUFFMAN

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WHAT AN INTERESTING NIGHT. STRONG/SEVERE STORMS NE OF LFK TO MLU
WITH OUTFLOW PUSHING SOUTH AND STORMS NEAR LCH WITH LARGE OUTFLOW
PUSHING WEST. OUTFLOW FROM SW LA STORMS JUST NOW GETTING INTO THE
EASTERN ZONES BUT NO STORMS SO FAR AND SHOULD BE COLLIDING WITH
SOUTHBOUND OUTFLOW SHORTLY. EXPECT THAT ONE MORE GASP COULD OCCUR
AND THAT NE COUNTIES MAY HAVE A WINDOW FOR A FEW MORE HOURS TO SEE
SOME SCATTERED STORMS SO HAVE PARED BACK POPS OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT. OVERZEALOUSLY FORECAST DEVELOPMENT EARLIER THIS EVENING
DOING THE UPDATE JUST AS OR BEFORE STORMS PEAKED IN INTENSITY.
OTHERWISE MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD STAY DRY WITH ANOTHER SEASONAL
NIGHT ON TAP.

MAY SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS TOWARD
MORNING SOUTH OF HIGH ISLAND WITH LONG LA OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
STRETCHING WELL OUT INTO THE GULF ACTING AS A FOCUS.
45

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 72 92 73 91 74 / 10 20 20 20 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 74 92 75 91 76 / 10 30 20 30 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 79 89 80 88 79 / 10 20 20 20 20

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

AVIATION/MARINE...14

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

1141 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015

3. RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION FROM AN 80-100 KT JET STREAK AT 200MB
HOVERING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES

4. IMPRESSIVE FRONTOGENESIS BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 700MB
ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVES...ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW TRACK.

5. ADVECTION OF CAPE...ALBEIT LESS THAN 500 J/KG...INTO THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATION

6. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS UP AROUND 4000 METERS...WITH THE STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS CENTERED IN THE WARM CLOUD.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT MEANDERS ACROSS THE TAF SITES. PLAN ON VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. A FEW TO SCT CIRRUS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW PATCHES OF BR AND MVFR
VISIBILITIES ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BEFORE THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH TONIGHT. ALSO...SOME SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES
COULD DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE REGION CAUSING SOME SLIGHT VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015

THE NEXT 2 DAYS WILL ALL BE ABOUT PINNING DOWN THE EXACT LOCATION OF
THE BAND OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
HYDROLOGY...AJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SACRAMENTO CA

347 AM PDT WED JUN 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER INTERIOR NORCAL
THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. WARMER
TEMPERATURES RETURN THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DRY
WEATHER.

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED OVERNIGHT, BUT THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
DIED DOWN BY MIDNIGHT. ON RADAR IMAGERY, MOST OF THE SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING BETWEEN BLUE CANYON IN THE SIERRA ACROSS THE VALLEY AND
INTO THE NORTH BAY COUNTIES. 24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE VALLEY
WERE GENERALLY JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS EXCEPT IN THE NORTHERN
SACRAMENTO VALLEY WHERE SOME OBSERVATIONS NEAR REDDING AND RED
BLUFF MEASURED 0.25 TO 0.35" DUE TO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. PEAK
AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS RANGED BETWEEN 0.5" TO OVER AN INCH.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORCAL THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
THE HRRR INDICATES MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
SIERRA WITH SHOWERS DRIFTING WESTWARD INTO THE VALLEY AND TOWARDS
THE BAY AREA. REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MORNING
HOURS SINCE THERE HASN`T BEEN ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUSTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. THE NAM ALSO SHOWS A NOTABLE DECREASE IN
CAPE OVER OUR CWA FOR TODAY. HAVE KEPT MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, BUT FEEL THAT MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE SHOWERS. NAM AND GFS HAVE THE LOW
MOVING EASTWARD BY TONIGHT SO NORCAL WILL BECOME DRIER TONIGHT AS
SHOWERS DIMINISH...ESPECIALLY AFTER 5 PM.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, A COOLING TREND HAS BEEN PERSISTENT WITH THE
HOURLY OBSERVATIONS OVERNIGHT THANKS TO YESTERDAY`S STRONG PUSH
FROM THE DELTA BREEZE. THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY SHOULD
FINALLY GET SOME RELIEF FROM TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT TODAY. FORECASTED
MAX TEMPS IN THE VALLEY WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 80S WITH SOME
LOCATIONS FLIRTING AROUND 90 IN SHASTA & TEHAMA COUNTIES. THE NAM DID
GREAT FORECASTING THE ONSHORE FLOW YESTERDAY SHOWING NEARLY A 5
MB ONSHORE GRADIENT BETWEEN SAN FRANCISCO AND SACRAMENTO. THAT
PUSH WON`T BE AS STRONG THIS AFTERNOON (CLOSER TO 3 MB). HOWEVER,
THE COOLER AIRMASS ALOFT FROM THE LOW COUPLED WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP THINGS COOLER TODAY.

UNFORTUNATELY, TODAY WILL BE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE HEAT. BY
THURSDAY, THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF OUR CWA AND HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND CA. THIS
MEANS TEMPERATURES WILL YO-YO BACK UP INTO THE 90S AND LOW 100S
FOR THE VALLEY. FRIDAY IS WHEN THE HEAT REALLY CRANKS UP AGAIN WITH
HIGHS AROUND 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL AND WIDESPREAD TRIPLE
DIGIT HEAT RETURNS TO THE VALLEY. TEMPS FOR THE WESTERN SIERRA
SLOPES WILL RANGE MID 70S (NEAR SIERRA CREST) TO THE MID 90S
(FOOTHILLS) AND THE DELTA WILL RANGE IN THE 80S TO MID 90S.

HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY NUDGING DAYTIME HIGHS
COOLER BY A COUPLE TO 5 DEGREES...STILL AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. JBB

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WEAKENS SUNDAY AS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A
BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST DIPS SOUTH INTO THE REGION.
THIS UPPER AIR PATTERN TRANSLATES TO STRONGER ONSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW, OR DELTA BREEZE. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SUNDAY
WITH THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE COAST.

SUCCESSIVE WAVES PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC,
DEEPENING AND RETROGRADING THE PARENT LOW/TROUGH NEAR 135W
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED IN THIS FAIRLY
STABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER, RIDGE WINDS AND THE DELTA
BREEZE MAY INCREASE. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY EQUALS
NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. JCLAPP
&&

.AVIATION...

LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND IFR IN THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WITH MAINLY VFR IN CENTRAL
VALLEY. CONVECTIVE THREAT GREATLY DIMINISHES TONIGHT. JCLAPP
&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL

1057 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

.UPDATE (REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
14Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THE MAIN NORTHERN
STREAM/WESTERLIES FLOW MOVING OVER THE US/CANADIAN BORDER BEFORE
RIDGING UP OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC. SOMEWHAT CUTOFF FROM THIS
FLOW WE FIND A DEEP LAYER LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS/CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WE FIND OURSELVES ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS TROUGH WITHIN A DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC
SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. WITHIN THE MAIN TROUGH WE FIND A SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE TO OUR NORTHWEST OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE/BIG BEND
REGION. SYNOPTIC SUPPORT AHEAD OF THIS IMPULSE...ALONG WITH SOME
SUBTLE FGEN FIELDS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS/NAM/RAP ARE HELPING TO
FUEL A FAIRLY VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE BURST. ALMOST ALL AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE DOES SHOW THIS BURST OF CONVECTION WEAKENING
SUBSTANTIALLY AS IT MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD THE NATURE COAST.
HOWEVER...MOST ALSO SHOW OTHER RENEWED AREAS OF CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR OFFSHORE WATERS...LIKELY PARTIALLY RELATED
TO THE LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW...AND PARTIALLY RELATED TO
CONVERGENT OUTFLOW PUSHING SOUTH FROM THE PANHANDLE STORM COMPLEX.

IN ADDITION...THE ONSET OF TERRESTRIAL DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD
BEGIN TO FUEL SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LAND
ZONES. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS SOUTH OF THE REGION...
SUPPORTING A 1000-700MB SOUTHWEST ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN. THIS IS
PATTERN...ANY SEA-BREEZE THAT DEVELOPS WILL PUSH INLAND FAIRLY
QUICKLY. THEREFORE...THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF STORMS THE SECOND
HALF OF TODAY INTO THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO BE INLAND FROM THE
COAST. HOWEVER...USUALLY...THE STABILIZING/SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE
OF THE SEA-BREEZE KEEPS THINGS ON THE DRY SIDE...BUT TODAY...WITH
THE ADDED SYNOPTIC INFLUENCE FOR LIFT...IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT
WE WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A RISK OF SCT SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING
OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND ROLLING ASHORE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT
BE A VIGOROUS AS FURTHER INLAND...BUT THOSE VISITING THE BEACHES
SHOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO DODGE SOME RAINDROPS. THE GREATER
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS...EARLIER START...AND OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
SHOULD HELP KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES...AND HAVE
MOST SPOTS HOLDING IN THE 80S TODAY.

ACTIVITY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET...ALTHOUGH LIGHTER LEFTOVER STRATIFORM RAIN RAINS FROM THE
DECAYING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES MAY LINGER IN SOME AREAS TILL
MIDNIGHT OR SO. THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT...THE BEST SHOWER
CHANCES WILL LIKELY SHIFT TO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN GULF WATERS AND
INTO THE NATURE COAST ZONES. THE DEEP LAYER SOUTHWEST FLOW...HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT AND SYNOPTIC SUPPORT SUGGEST A GOOD SETUP FOR AT
LEAST SCT CONVECTION MOVING ASHORE (MAINLY PINELLAS COUNTY AND
NORTHWARD).

THURSDAY IS LOOKING LIKE OUR TRANSITION DAY IN LOW LEVEL
CONVECTIVE FLOW PATTERNS. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST BY ALL
RELIABLE NWP TO BEGIN SHIFTING BACK NORTHWARD AND HAVE ITS AXIS
STRETCHED ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY.
OVERALL THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN AS THE AXIS MOVES NORTHWARD. THIS
WEAKER / MORE VARIABLE FLOW USUALLY RESULTS IN BOTH THE EAST AND
WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES MOVING INLAND...WITH A COLLISION
OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE STATE. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE FOR THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA. FURTHER SOUTH DOWN TOWARD
FORT MYERS...THE AXIS MAY MOVE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO RESULT IN A
MORE DEFINED SOUTHEAST FLOW BY THE LATER DAY HOURS. SO...AFTER
MORE SCT SHOWERS MOVING ASHORE FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE MAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD
SHIFT INLAND FROM THE I-75 CORRIDOR FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ZONES WHERE THE FLOW IS MORE VARIABLE...AND HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
OF BEING A THREAT TO THE COAST/COASTAL WATERS FOR CHARLOTTE/LEE
COUNTIES WHERE THE FLOW WILL HAVE BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST IN NATURE.

THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SETS UP GENERALLY NORTH OF OUR AREA THROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SYNOPTIC LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEAST FLOW PATTERN. DEPENDING ON JUST HOW STRONG THIS FLOW
IS...THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR THE FINAL DAYS OF THE WEEK
IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION BACK TO THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND WESTWARD
TO THE COAST DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

.AVIATION...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE SEEN ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS
MORNING. ONLY EXCEPTION IS BRIEF PERIODS OF BKN MVFR CIGS ABOVE
2KFT MOVING IN TO KPIE OFF THE GULF. OVERALL EXPECT SCT-BKN
CUMULUS FIELD TO QUICKLY. DISTURBANCE APPROACHING COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. PERIOD OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS ASSOCIATED WITH
STORMS. SHOWER/MVFR CHANCES CONTINUE OVERNIGHT CLOSE TO THE
COAST.

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION
TODAY...WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY.
FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHEAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF. NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THE MAIN CONCERN.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 85 75 88 76 / 60 40 40 20
FMY 87 74 90 75 / 60 30 50 20
GIF 86 72 90 73 / 70 30 60 20
SRQ 85 75 89 74 / 50 50 40 20
BKV 85 71 88 70 / 60 30 60 20
SPG 85 77 88 77 / 50 50 40 20

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...14/MROCZKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MELBOURNE FL

945 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY FOR EAST CENTRAL FL...

WX PATTERN REMAINS VERY FAVORABLE FOR NMRS SHRAS/TSRAS ACRS THE EAST
FL PENINSULA TODAY. FRONTAL TROF OVER THE ERN SEABOARD IS KEEPING
THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS SUPPRESSED OVER THE FL STRAITS...RESULTING IN A
DEEP 10-15KT WRLY FLOW THRU THE H100-H70 LYR. PWAT VALUES OFF THE
12Z RAOBS BTWN 1.7"-1.8" WITH RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING MEAN RH VALUES
ARND 70PCT THRU THE H100-H50 LYR.

ALOFT...VORT FIELDS SHOW A LCL MAX JUST W OF KTPA POISED TO ADVECT
INTO CENTRAL FL WHILE A 50-60KT JET STREAK DIGGING INTO THE WRN
GOMEX WILL AID IN GENERATING GOOD UPR LVL DIVERGENCE OVER THE ERN
GOMEX. H70 AND H50 TEMPS ARND 7C AND -9C RESPECTIVELY...YIELDING
LAPSE RATES BTWN 6.5-7.0C/KM THRU THE LYR.

SIMILAR TO 12Z TUE...NO SIG INVERSIONS THRU THE H100-H70 LYR ON ANY
OF THE MRNG RAOBS BEYOND THE SFC INVERSION. DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL
INITIATE ALONG BOTH SEA BREEZES ONCE THE TEMPS REACH THEIR
CONVECTIVE TRIGGERS (M80S)...NOON OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. DEEP WRLY
FLOW WILL PIN THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR WITH
NEARLY STATIONARY SCT SHRAS/ISOLD TSRAS THRU MID AFTN...WEST COAST
SEA BREEZE WILL MARCH STEADILY ACRS THE PENINSULA WITH CONVECTION
INCREASING THRU MID AFTN MVG E/NE 10-15MPH.

SEA BREEZE MERGER AFT 3PM THIS AFTN OVER THE CSTL COUNTIES...DEEP
CONVECTION WILL GENERATE FRQNT CG LTG...LCL HEAVY RAIN...AND BRIEF
OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. WRLY STEERING FLOW WILL PUSH
SHRAS/TSRAS OFF THE EAST COAST INTO EARLY EVENING WITH ACTIVITY
BURNING OUT BY 11 PM.

.AVIATION...
THRU 10/16Z...PREVAILING VFR WITH LCL MVFR CIGS BTWN FL020-030 CSTL
SITES...S/SW WINDS 4-8MPH BCMG SE 7-11KTS CSTL SITES WITH THE
FORMATION OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. BTWN 10/16Z-10/20Z...NMRS
MVFR SHRAS/IFR TSRAS DVLPG ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE MVG E/NE 10KTS...LCL WND G25-35KTS. BTWN 10/20Z-10/24Z...E/W
COAST SEABREEZE MERGER JUST W OF I-95 CORRIDOR WITH SCT LIFR +TSRAS
DVLPG AND MVG E/NE ARND 10KTS...LCL WND G30-40KTS. BTWN 10/00Z-
10/02Z...CHC MVFR SHRAS/SLGT CHC IFR TSRAS. AFT 10/02Z...PREVAILING
VFR.

.MARINE...
ATLC HI PRES RIDGE REMAINS SUPPRESSED OVER THE FL STRAITS THANKS TO
A FRONTAL TROF PUSHING OFF THE ERN SEABOARD. LIGHT TO GENTLE SWRLY
BREEZE WILL PREVAIL...BCMG E/SE NEAR THE COAST BY EARLY AFTN WITH
THE FORMATION OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. SEAS 2FT OR LESS
NEARSHORE AND 2-3FT OFFSHORE...MAINLY IN A 9-10SEC NERLY SWELL.
PRIMARY MARINE THREAT WILL BE +TSRAS MVG OFFSHORE AFT 2PM...SOME
PRODUCING FRQNT CG LTG AND SFC G35KTS OR HIGHER...CONTG THRU 10PM
THIS EVNG.

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...BRAGAW
AVIATION/IMPACT WX.....ULRICH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TALLAHASSEE FL

925 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

WITH THE EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NW FL AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS, THE 8 AM EDT REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS WAS
DOMINATED BY MESOSCALE FEATURES. THERE WAS A MESO HIGH (ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK COLD POOL) AT PANAMA CITY, AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
TRANSLATING SOUTH AND EAST OFFSHORE, AND A SYNOPTIC SCALE (BUT
WEAK) TROUGH FROM COASTAL LA THROUGH THE FL PANHANDLE. VAPOR
IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR DATA SHOWED A NNE-SSW ORIENTED TROUGH OVER
THE FORECAST AREA, WITH PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE.

EARLY MORNING CONVECTION IS ALWAYS TRICKY THIS TIME OF YEAR
BECAUSE THE ASSOCIATED CS CANOPY CAN DISRUPT THE NORMAL DIURNAL
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION THAT DRIVES MOST OF OUR SUMMER
THUNDERSTORMS. BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR RUNS, WHICH APPEAR TO HAVE
INITIALIZED WELL, WE THINK THERE WILL BE A LULL IN DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING (EXCEPT FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS WHERE IT WILL STILL BE QUITE ACTIVE). HOWEVER,
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN MAY PERSIST A WHILE LONGER. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN TRANSLATE
NORTHWARD. THUS THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCES FOR FL HAVE ALREADY
OCCURRED, BUT THERE WILL STILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE (HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S) DUE TO THE CLOUD
COVER.

.PREV DISCUSSION [542 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...

THE AXIS OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND CUT OFF LOW OVER OUR CWA
TONIGHT WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM
THE EAST THROUGH FRIDAY. ON THURSDAY, WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST, DEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AND UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE TRI-STATE REGION. THUS, WE
EXPECT ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY FOR CONVECTION WITH POPS IN THE GOOD
CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE. ON FRIDAY, WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE THE
LOWERING OF DAYTIME POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY AS DEEP RIDGING
BUILDS OVERHEAD. MAX TEMPS WILL BE AT OR BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS
THURSDAY AND NEAR TO ABOVE ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM [FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...

THE MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE EAST
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BECOME CENTERED OVER THE SE CONUS MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. POPS WILL BE BELOW CLIMO (30% OR LESS) WITH
ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER MID 90S WITH LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY] SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRST AFFECT KTLH THIS MORNING AND
THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES.

.MARINE...

WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THIS
WEEKEND AND INCREASE TO MODERATE FLOW AS THE LOWER LEVEL PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS, PARTICULARLY OVER THE WESTERN WATERS. WHILE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA THROUGH THE
PERIOD, WE MAY SEE WAVE HEIGHTS OCCASIONALLY REACH UP TO 6 FEET
THIS WEEKEND.

.FIRE WEATHER...

HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

.HYDROLOGY...

MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TODAY WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN
GEORGIA, BUT STORMS ARE MOVING ENOUGH THAT THE FLOODING THREAT IS
LOW. SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT
ALL POINTS WILL REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE 89 71 86 71 90 / 80 40 60 30 30
PANAMA CITY 83 73 84 75 86 / 70 50 60 30 30
DOTHAN 87 69 88 71 89 / 50 30 50 30 30
ALBANY 89 70 88 72 90 / 60 30 50 30 30
VALDOSTA 89 71 90 70 92 / 60 30 60 20 30
CROSS CITY 90 70 83 68 91 / 50 40 70 40 30
APALACHICOLA 87 74 84 75 87 / 50 50 70 30 30

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...DVD/MERRIFIELD
MARINE...BARRY/MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...DVD/MERRIFIELD
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSONVILLE FL

919 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

.UPDATE...12Z SOUNDINGS A LITTLE MORE MOIST WITH HIGHER PRECIP
WATER VALUES...AROUND 1.8 INCHES...COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE ANIMATION HINTING AT WEAK WAVES IN UPPER FLOW
OVER EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FL PNDL. FOLLOWING HRRR SOLUTION
WITH ACTIVITY PROGRESSING OVER SUWANNEE VALLEY REGION THIS
MORNING. THIS AFTERNOON...LOW-LEVEL SW FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE EAST OF I-95 CORRID0R...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/
T-STORMS ALONG THIS FEATURE 18-21Z. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS POTENTIAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHIFTING WESTWARD AND MEETING WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE CTRL FL PENINSULA 22-00Z...WITH ACTIVITY MOVING SLOWLY
EASTWARD WHILE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING DURING THE LATE EVENING.
HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY POP GRIDS TO FOLLOW THIS TREND.

WITH SUFFICIENT HEATING LEADING TO MID-UPR 80S TEMPS AND DEWPTS
NEAR 70...SHOULD SEE SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES AROUND 2500 J/KG
WITH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONG DOWNDRAFTS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. THE TALLEST STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY
SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS...AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL GIVEN -9C 500MB
TEMPS. WILL MONITOR RADAR CLOSELY.

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU TONIGHT...
EXCEPT LOWER CONDITIONS VICINITY OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA. POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR WET
MICROBURSTS BENEATH TALLER STORMS.

.MARINE...NO SIG CHANGES PLANNED IN NEXT CWF ISSUANCE. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15KTS AND 2-4 FT SEAS EXPECTED NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE WATERS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 89 70 88 71 / 60 50 60 20
SSI 86 74 85 74 / 50 40 50 20
JAX 89 72 88 72 / 60 50 50 20
SGJ 87 72 87 73 / 50 50 50 10
GNV 89 70 87 70 / 60 40 60 10
OCF 88 70 88 70 / 60 40 50 10

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

WOLF/WALKER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BOISE ID

922 AM MDT WED JUN 10 2015

.DISCUSSION...LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM NEAR SMITHS
FERRY/ID SWWD TO ROME/OR WILL SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING AND SHOULD
BE IN SOUTH-CENTRL IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
ALSO DEVELOP. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL COME IN FROM OREGON DURING
THE DAY AND INTO WESTERN IDAHO ZONES LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. MOSTLY
SUNNY AND A LITTLE COOLER IN ALL AREAS THURSDAY UNDER WNWLY FLOW
ALOFT...BUT STILL WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE. CURRENT
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

.AVIATION...VFR. BKN-OVC MID LEVEL CLOUDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF A KREO-KMYL LINE. SURFACE
WINDS BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY 10-20KT THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTS TO 30KT
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL...NNW 10-20KT.

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY. DRIER AIR OVER
CENTRAL OREGON WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL END
ACROSS OREGON BY MID-MORNING. IN IDAHO...RADAR DATA SHOWED THAT A
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE BOISE MOUNTAINS
SOUTHWESTWARD BETWEEN BOISE AND MOUNTAIN HOME TO NEAR SILVER CITY
WAS NEARLY STATIONARY AT 3 AM. THIS LINE IS A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF
WHERE THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN DEPICTING THAT IT WOULD DEVELOP. THIS
BAND SHOULD SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD LATER THIS MORNING WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND EAST OF BOISE IN THE
AFTERNOON. TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT 6 TO 8 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECT LESS
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...DRY WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
WESTERN CANADA WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH SATURDAY. ON
SUNDAY MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH DEEPENING AND THE FLOW OVER OUR AREA
BECOMING MORE MOIST. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT STILL AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...JB
PREV LONG TERM....JT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

907 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
745 AM CDT

AN AXIS OF SCATTERED STORMS HAS PULSED UP NEAR THE I-80 CORRIDOR
ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE WAVE/MOISTENING ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND LIKELY SOME CONVERGENCE WITH THE 40-50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. IN
THE PAST 30 MINUTES...THE UPDRAFTS/CORES HAVE CONTINUED AN
INCREASING TREND. A FEW STORMS HAVE HAD PULSY STRONG DOWNDRAFT
SIGNATURES UNDER MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. DESPITE THE TIME OF
DAY...THE BOUNDARY LAYER SEEMS AT LEAST SOMEWHAT MIXED GIVEN GUSTS
FROM SOME OF THE STORMS AS WELL AS JUST SYNOPTIC GUSTS APART FROM
THE STORMS. RAP ANALYZED DOWNDRAFT CAPE IS PLENTY HIGH AS WELL
SUPPORTING THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS. HAVE HANDLED
THE BROAD AREA OF STORMS WITH AN SPS AND GRAPHICAST FOR THE TIME
BEING BUT POSSIBLE ANOTHER WARNING OR TWO ARE NEEDED.

MTF

.SHORT TERM...
330 AM CDT

THROUGH TONIGHT...

THERE ARE MULTIPLE CHALLENGES WITH THE FORECAST FOR TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING INCLUDING THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF MANY COMMUNITIES HITTING 90
FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR...AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
HEAVY RAIN-PRODUCING STORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.

A NICELY DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES STEERING A
WEAKENING SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL SLOW CONSIDERABLY AND LIKELY STALL NEAR INTERSTATE 80
OR JUST NORTH OF IT BY MID AFTERNOON. A 40-45 KT WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL
JET SAMPLED ON VAD PROFILERS IS ACCOMPANYING THE SHORT WAVE AND WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE REGION TODAY...EVEN LIKELY STRENGTHENING SOME
OVER THE EASTERN CWA. THIS JET WILL KEEP THE THERMAL RIDGE OVER
THE AREA AND THIS IS WITHIN THE MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...EVEN FOR
LOCATIONS IN FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS THAT TURN A NORTHWEST WIND
LATER THIS MORNING.

UPSTREAM ROABS LAST EVE AND A GUIDANCE BLEND FOR TODAY CHARACTERIZE
THE EARLY AFTERNOON 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 19-21C...WHICH IS IN THE
TOP TWO PERCENTILE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF JUNE...AND REANALYSIS DATA
FOR TEMPERATURES THAT WARM THIS TIME OF YEAR YIELD 90 AS A MEAN FOR
CHICAGO. UPSTREAM HIGHS YESTERDAY WERE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND
SHOULD REALIZE THAT ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY TODAY...AND
NEAR 90 NORTH OF IT. SOME OF THE WET GROUND AREAS MAY AGAIN END UP
A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER. IN THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA IF
TEMPERATURES DO REACH THE MID 90S...HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL
LIKELY TAG 100. AS FOR LAKE SHORE AREAS...THE TIMING OF ONSHORE
WINDS IS A BIT CHALLENGING WITH THE FRONT SINKING SOUTH. IT IS
THOUGHT WITH SUCH A WARM STARTING POINT TO TEMPERATURES TODAY THAT
EVEN DOWNTOWN CHICAGO WILL REACH 90 BEFORE FALLING SOME MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON...BUT MAY FALL SEVERAL DEGREES SHORT IF THE FRONT
IS A COUPLE HOURS EARLIER. SEE CLIMATE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE.

WHILE THERE COULD BE A FEW MORNING SHOWERS OR WEAK STORMS WITHIN THE
WARM ADVECTION REGIME...ATTENTION WILL BE ON THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A CONVERGENT AXIS FOR
THE WARM AND HIGH MOISTURE AIR...WITH LOW-MID 90S OVER NEAR 70 TDS
YIELDING POTENTIAL CAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG...WITH POSSIBLY EVEN
HIGHER ON MODIFIED NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS FOR IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. WITH SUCH A WARM THERMAL RIDGE A CAP IS EXPECTED BUT
FORECAST T/TD VALUES SUPPORT JUST OVERCOMING THAT. CONVECTIVE-
ALLOWING GUIDANCE...INCLUDING ENSEMBLES OF SUCH...HAVE A STRONG
SIGNAL OF DEVELOPING STORMS IN NORTHERN/NORTHWEST INDIANA TO NEAR
OR JUST SOUTH OF CHICAGO BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...WITH A LITTLE
MORE OF AN INCONSISTENT SIGNAL FURTHER SOUTHWEST WHERE SURFACE
FLOW IS WEAKER AND CAP IS STRONGER. STILL WOULD EXPECT NUMEROUS
STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY BY EARLY EVENING...WITH A VERY GRADUAL
FADE AFTER SUNDOWN. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS HIGHEST /35-40 KT/ CLOSEST
TO THE UPPER SHORT WAVE...SO IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WOULD
EXPECT A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS THERE...BUT
GIVEN THE HIGH MLCAPE VALUES ALONG THE BOUNDARY THE CHANCE FOR
SEVERE STORMS EXISTS ALONG THE ENTIRE BOUNDARY FROM 3-4 PM THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN THREATS WOULD BE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL FROM
STRONG DISCRETE STORMS INITIALLY...LIKELY MORPHING INTO A FEW
MULTICELLS BY EARLY- MID EVENING.

PROPAGATION VECTORS ARE A BIT WORRISOME...AS THEY INDICATE A VERY
SLOW SOUTH OR EVEN SOUTHWEST MOVEMENT BY EARLY EVENING. CONSIDERED
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NOW WET AREAS OF BASICALLY THE
KANKAKEE RIVER VALLEY OF NORTHWEST IN AND EASTERN IL. WILL
CONTINUE THE ESF AT THIS POINT SINCE COVERAGE/DURATION MAY BE
SOMEWHAT LIMITED...BUT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH WITH ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS TO HAVE SOME ISSUES. HAVE COLLABORATED HIGHER MESOSCALE
QPF WITH WPC AND NEIGHBORING WFOS.

MTF

.LONG TERM...
402 AM CDT

THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE FRONT WILL BEGIN RETURNING NORTHWARD THURSDAY MORNING AND
MORE SO INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS AS AN UPPER AND COUNTERPART
SURFACE LOW EVOLVE EASTWARD IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MOIST ADVECTION
OVERRIDING THE BOUNDARY COULD PRESENT MORNING SHOWERS OR STORMS
ACROSS MAINLY NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW INCREASES UP TO THE BOUNDARY BRINGING NEAR
OR AROUND 90 AGAIN TO SOUTHERN AREAS...SOME CONVECTION MAY BE
ABLE TO DEVELOP. CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
GREATEST FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS APPEARING TO BE NORTHWEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS
FROM AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT.

NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID
70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH LAKESIDE AREAS FAVORED TO REMAIN IN THE 60S
WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW.

WITH THE SURFACE LOW PASSING NEAR THE WI/IL STATE LINE FRIDAY
MORNING...STRONG SOUTHWEST SHOULD ENVELOP THE AREA. SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE LIKELY GIVEN MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER FORCING ALIGNED
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THE ABILITY TO DESTABILIZE IN
THE LOW-LEVELS MAY BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

BEYOND HAVE MADE FEW CHANGES GIVEN PLENTY TO FOCUS ON IN THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK ACTIVE...WITH POTENTIALLY EVEN A
BETTER MOIST FEED FROM THE WESTERN GULF LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL DEFINITELY BE CONCERNS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
AND POSSIBLE FLOODING...AND DEPENDENT ON INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVE
STRENGTH POSSIBLY CONCERNS FOR SEVERE WEATHER. ONE PERIOD THAT
DOES LOOK DRY WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO THE DAY SATURDAY...AND HAVE COLLABORATED AND FOCUSED POPS
MAINLY SOUTH IN THAT TIME.

MTF

.CLIMATE...
500 AM CDT

HIGHS OF 90 DEGREES PLUS ARE FORECAST ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-88
TODAY AND ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS
BASICALLY RIGHT ON PAR WITH NORMAL. FOR CHICAGO...THE NORMAL FIRST
90 DEGREE DAY IS JUNE 8 AND FOR ROCKFORD IS JUNE 11. DESPITE BEING
AT NORMAL...IF 90 WERE REACHED TODAY IT WOULD BE THE LATEST FIRST
90 DEGREE DAY FOR BOTH CITIES SINCE 2009.

MTF/KJB

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...

* GUSTY WEST WINDS THIS MORNING...BECOMING NORTHEAST TOWARD
EVENING WITH SAGGING COLD FRONT/LAKE BREEZE COMBINATION.

* TSRA LIKELY ALONG FRONT/LAKE BREEZE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING.

KJB/RODRIGUEZ

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...

THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE THREAT
AND TIMING FOR A PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH A
NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHIFT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS
THE AREA WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. FOR THE MOST PART THIS
ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. HOWEVER...A STRAY
STORM DID MOVE OVER KMDW...BUT THIS STORM WILL BE QUICKLY EXIT
OVER GYY THROUGH 12 UTC. OTHERWISE...THE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATED AS THEY SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING.

A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL LIKELY ACT AS THE FOCAL POINT FOR ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE EASTERN
TERMINALS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WITH THIS IN MIND...I
TRANSITIONED THE PROB 30 TO A TEMPO FOR TSRA. I CURRENTLY HAVE A 3
HOUR TEMPO FOR THUNDER...WHICH IS LIKELY A BIT LONGER THAN WHAT
WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR...SO THIS TIME MAY NEED TO BE SHRUNK SOME WITH
LATER UPDATES. THESE STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS BY EARLY EVENING. IT APPEARS THESE STORMS MAY REMAIN
SOUTH OF KRFD...SO I WILL LEAVE THEIR TAF DRY.

WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY OUT OF THE WEST THIS
MORNING...THEN WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THE A LAKE BREEZE/COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL SHIFT OVER THE TERMINALS AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A EAST-
NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHIFT AT THE EASTERN TERMINALS...AND A NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY SHIFT AT KRFD.

SOME LOWER CIGS DOWN AROUND 1,000 FEET AGL...ARE ALSO POSSIBLE BY
THURSDAY MORNING. ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AND THIS COULD DRAG SOME SOME FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS
ONSHORE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS. CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IS
LOW...BUT I OPTED TO INCLUDE THE MENTION IN THE ORD TAF AFTER 12
UTC THURSDAY. AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF SOME STORMS IS ALSO POSSIBLE
LATER TOMORROW MORNING...BUT SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES WILL ARRIVE
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

KJB

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...

* MEDIUM WITH FRONT/LAKE BREEZE WIND SHIFT TIMING THIS AFTERNOON.

* HIGH WITH TSRA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT MEDIUM ON
IF THESE STORMS WILL MOVE OVER A GIVEN TERMINAL AND DURATION.

* LOW-MEDIUM WITH LOWER CIG POTENTIAL AND TIMING THURSDAY
MORNING.

KJB/RODRIGUEZ

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

THURSDAY NIGHT...GOOD CHANCE OF TSRA. EAST WINDS.

FRIDAY...TSRA LIKELY. SOUTHWEST WINDS.

SATURDAY...IFR TO MVFR CIGS. NORTHEAST WINDS.

SUNDAY...GOOD CHANCE OF TSRA. SOUTH WINDS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING
SOUTH ON TUESDAY.

KJB

.MARINE...
313 AM CDT

CONDITIONS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FOG
AT TIMES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH MORE PERIODS OF DENSE
FOG POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT OVER THE LAKE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH THE WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME NORTHERLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER LAKE.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN BY FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO PRODUCE ACTIVE WEATHER
OVER THE LAKE...WITH PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS...FOG AND SOME
HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES. THE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN INCREASING OUT OF
THE EAST-NORTHEAST BY LATE THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT...ASSOCIATED
WITH THE APPROACHING LOW...WILL THEN LIKELY LIFT OVER AT LEAST
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE LAKE BY EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PERIOD OF GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE...WITH EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING
ON THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE.

PERIODS OF ACTIVE WEATHER LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES INTO NEXT
WEEK AS THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE AND VERY MOIST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

KJB

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

746 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
745 AM CDT

MTF

.SHORT TERM...
330 AM CDT

THROUGH TONIGHT...

MTF

.LONG TERM...
402 AM CDT

THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID
70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH LAKESIDE AREAS FAVORED TO REMAIN IN THE 60S
WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW.

MTF

.CLIMATE...
500 AM CDT

MTF/KJB

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...

* GUSTY WEST WINDS THIS MORNING...BECOMING NORTHEAST TOWARD
EVENING WITH SAGGING COLD FRONT/LAKE BREEZE COMBINATION.

* TSRA LIKELY ALONG FRONT/LAKE BREEZE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING.

KJB

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...

THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE THREAT
AND TIMING FOR A PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH A
NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHIFT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

KJB

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...

* MEDIUM WITH FRONT/LAKE BREEZE WIND SHIFT TIMING THIS AFTERNOON.

* HIGH WITH TSRA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT MEDIUM ON
IF THESE STORMS WILL MOVE OVER A GIVEN TERMINAL.

* LOW-MEDIUM WITH LOWER CIG POTENTIAL AND TIMING THURSDAY
MORNING.

KJB

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

THURSDAY NIGHT...GOOD CHANCE OF TSRA. EAST WINDS.

FRIDAY...TSRA LIKELY. SOUTHWEST WINDS.

SATURDAY...IFR TO MVFR CIGS. NORTHEAST WINDS.

SUNDAY...GOOD CHANCE OF TSRA. SOUTH WINDS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING
SOUTH ON TUESDAY.

KJB

.MARINE...
313 AM CDT

PERIODS OF ACTIVE WEATHER LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES INTO NEXT
WEEK AS THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE AND VERY MOIST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

KJB

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

1044 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SLIGHT RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AS A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE AREA. WHILE THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING WAS
VERY DRY...UPSTREAM MID LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES ARE MUCH HIGHER AND
EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A MID LEVEL LOW
TRANSITIONS ACROSS ONTARIO AND INTO QUEBEC AND WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
STRENGTHENS. LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW FAIRLY THIN CAPE
PROFILES BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT STILL SEE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS TO GO SEVERE...MAINLY DUE TO
WINDS WITH DCAPE VALUES ANTICIPATED BETWEEN 1000-1300 J/KG.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
LEVELS.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL NORTH OF PIT SHOULD QUICKLY COME TO
AN END THIS EVENING AS INSTABILITY AND UPPER SUPPORT QUICKLY
DIMINISH. THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE CROSSING THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE STALLING. MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY THOUGH
MOST OF THE TIME SHOULD BE DRY WITH NO UPPER SUPPORT PROGGED.

THE UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED TO TURN SOUTHWEST LATER THURSDAY PUSHING
THE FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FRIDAY IS PROGGED TO KEEP SHOWER/STORM CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST THOUGH WITH LACK OF A TRIGGER KEPT ONLY LOW POPS. THE
NEXT ORGANIZED SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED FOR A SATURDAY PASSAGE...ALONG
WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...WITH CONTINUED SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES. WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE
PASSAGE OF THE SATURDAY FRONT.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS AN EASTERN CONUS RIDGE
BUILDS...LEAVING WEAK QUASIZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
UPPER OHIO REGIONS. CHANCE PRECIP NUMBERS WILL HAVE TO BE
MAINTAINED GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF SHORTWAVE PROGRESSION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PERIMETER OF THE RIDGE...I.E. THE IMMEDIATE AREA. WPC
GUIDANCE GENERALLY DEPICTED THE SITUATION WELL AND FEW CHANGES
WERE NEEDED.

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALTHOUGH VFR WILL PREDOMINATE FOR MUCH OF TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
IS ERODED...A WEAK SHORT WAVE IN WNW FLOW ALOFT MAY SUPPORT SOME
SHOWERS AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS LATER THIS MORNING...PRIMARILY NORTH
OF PITTSBURGH. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AT FKL AND DUJ
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS ON AVERAGE.

A BETTER RESTRICTION CHANCE IS EXPECTED FOR PORTS NORTH OF PIT BY
THIS EVENING THOUGH AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OFF THE LAKES WITH
THE ADVANCE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND ON THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE I 70 CORRIDOR AND SERVES AS THE
FOCUS FOR MORE CONVECTION AND LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT BEFORE LIFTING
NORTHWARD AGAIN. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS
ANTICIPATED WITH A FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

1142 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

APPEARS MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE THROUGH. NOW WITH A
WESTERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY STABILIZE.
THE FRONT WILL LINGER NEAR I-94 FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND
COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE CONVECTION. KEEP CHANCE POPS
THERE...MAINLY FOR MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

THE COLD FRONT TIMES THROUGH THE GRR AREA BY NOON THEN
SLOWS/STALLS ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF I-94 FOR THIS AFTERNOON. A
WEST-EAST BAND OF DIURNAL SFC BASED STORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP/INTENSIFY ALONG THE FRONT... ALTHOUGH BASED ON THE LOW
LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WHICH DEVELOPS OVER WRN LWR MI BEHIND THE
FRONT AND LACK OF SFC CONVERGENCE... SUSPECT THIS ACTIVITY WILL
BECOME ORIENTED JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA ALONG THE MI/IND BORDER
AFTER 3 PM. WILL KEEP LOW CHC POPS FROM AZO TO JXN THIS AFTERNOON
OTHERWISE WILL GO DRY/SUNNY BEHIND THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 749 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS MORNING HAVE HIGH CLOUD BASES
AND THE RAIN WILL BE VERY BRIEF IN DURATION IF THEY IMPACT THE
TERMINALS. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT THE CONDITIONS IN THE TAFS VFR WITH
ONLY A VCTS REMARK.

THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATER
THIS MORNING... WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL TURN WEST AND
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON THEN BECOME NEAR CALM THIS
EVENING. THIS MAY ALLOW SOME LIGHT/MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT.

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1142 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

WILL ALLOW THE LAKE HEADLINES TO EXPIRE AT NOON. SW WINDS WERE
ALREADY DIMINISHING AND WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT TO THE WEST
ALLOWING WAVES TO SUBSIDE. IT WILL REMAIN A BIT CHOPPY BUT THE
TREND WILL BE LOWERING TO 1 TO 2 FEET BY LATE AFTERNOON.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1149 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015

THERE ARE NO IMMEDIATE CONCERNS ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS. THERE
MAY BE IMPACTFUL PRECIPITATION LATER IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN POSSIBLE.

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MIZ037-043-050-
056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LMZ844>849.

UPDATE...JK
SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...JK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

749 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 749 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

WILL CONTINUE THE SHORT DURATION SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND BEACH
HAZARD STATEMENT THIS MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET IMPACTS LK MI
AHEAD OF APCHG SFC COLD FRONT. MKG IS CURRENTLY CURRENTLY GUSTING
OVER 25 KTS. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP OVER THE LAKE LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS THE WINDS DIMINISH.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1149 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015

THERE ARE NO IMMEDIATE CONCERNS ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS. THERE
MAY BE IMPACTFUL PRECIPITATION LATER IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN POSSIBLE.

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MIZ037-043-050-
056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LMZ844>849.

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...MEADE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

703 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

.AVIATION...

SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTING NEAR 30 KNOTS WILL CARRY WARMER AND MORE
HUMID AIR INTO SE MICHIGAN WHICH WILL FUEL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS
THAT WILL AFFECT THE ENTIRE TERMINAL CORRIDOR DURING THE MORNING.
THE CHANCE OF STORMS WILL THEN BE CONFINED TO ALONG A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL SETTLE NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON COVERAGE DURING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE SO UPDATES WILL BE NEEDED FOR ADDITIONS AND REFINEMENTS ON
THUNDERSTORM DETAIL AS THE DAY UNFOLDS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
TAKE OVER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A MIX OF HIGH
CLOUDS MAKING UP VFR CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND SOME
SHALLOW/LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE.

FOR DTW... A COUPLE TIME WINDOWS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY.
THE FIRST DURING MID TO LATE MORNING IN GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND AND THE
SECOND DURING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THE PLAN IS TO CARRY THE
MORNING STORMS AND THEN ADD AFTERNOON DETAILS WITH UPDATES DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY ON COVERAGE ALONG THE FRONT.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MODERATE FOR CEILING OF 5000 FT OR LESS TODAY WITH
THUNDERSTORMS.

* MODERATE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MORNING. LOW DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 355 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

LONG TERM...

MARINE...

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ421-422-
441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ444.

AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO

547 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 358 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 544 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

VFR conditions expected through the period. Southwest to south winds
AOB 12kts will prevail. Thunderstorms are expected to be located well
north/west of terminals during the evening/overnight period.

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Blair

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS GLASGOW MT

949 AM MDT WED JUN 10 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

SENT AN UPDATE THIS MORNING TO TRY TO INCORPORATE CURRENT RADAR
REFLECTIVITY TRENDS AND THE LATEST SHORT-TERM AND HI-RES MODEL
DATA FOR THE PRECIP FORECAST. EXPECTING SHOWERS TODAY WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WILL LIKELY BE REMOVED SOUTH OF OUR CWA...BUT THE HRRR MODEL
BRINGS SOME DESCENT STORMS TOWARD OUR WESTERN CWA TONIGHT.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY WINDS WILL BE OFF AND ON 20G30 MPH FOR SOME
LOCATIONS. BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...AN INVERTED SURFACE BOUNDARY
ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT PACIFIC MOISTURE AND
A WEAK SHORTWAVE...WERE PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THIS MORNING. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROF DIPS OUT OF SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
SLIDES ALONG THE CANADA BORDER. LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST JET ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS EXTENDS INTO EASTERN MONTANA AND LOOKS TO BE JUST
STRONG ENOUGH AND POSITIONED TO CREATE LAKE WIND
CONDITIONS...MAINLY ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE TODAY.

DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION AS THE CANADIAN SHORTWAVE
DEFLECTS THE PACIFIC MOISTURE SOUTHWARD. RAIN WILL LINGER OVER THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...AND GIVEN RECENT
FLOODING IN THE AREA...STORMS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN MONTANA ON FRIDAY WITH AN
UPPER LOW DROPPING OUT OF ALASKA INTO WESTERN CANADA. WEDGE OF WARMER
AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE TROF. REMNANTS
OF WEAK LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST DRIFTING TOWARD THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL TAKE UP MOST OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE...FOR HOT
AND DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY. EBERT

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT BEGINS WITH A LONG-WAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER ALBERTA
WHICH WILL DRIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. THIS
LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST INTO SASKATCHEWAN ON SATURDAY. MODELS SHOW
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA WHICH
COULD BE THE FOCUS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDER. COOLER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA INTO SUNDAY BRINGING
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO NORMAL.

ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST THAT WILL
DRIVE WAVE THROUGH CALIFORNIA TO BRING ADDITIONAL ABUNDANT
MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL DIVIDE AND INTO MONTANA FOR MONDAY.
HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE A NARROW RIDGE OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST
WILL TEND TO MAINTAIN MOST ENERGY TO OUR SOUTH

AFTER MONDAY THE UNCERTAINTY GROWS ON THE REGIONAL DETAILS. BUT
THE LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW REMAINS OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD CONTINUOUSLY PUMPING PACIFIC MOISTURE
INLAND. THIS LONG-WAVE TROUGHINESS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES...AND SHOWERS WITH THUNDER INTO MID-WEEK. BOTH GFS
AND EC SHOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY TO BE THE BEST FOR POSSIBLE
HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH A LEE SIDE
SURFACE TROUGH. SCT

.AVIATION...

A MEDIUM WAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WITH A
SURFACE LOW IN PLACE TO ESTABLISH WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY...EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. ALL TERMINALS CAN EXPECT PERIODS OF SHOWERS...SOME
BRIEFLY MODERATE OR HEAVY...AND LOWERING MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS NEAR ANY SHOWER OR STORM.

GENERALLY VFR...EXCEPT NEAR STORMS. EXPECT EAST WINDS OF 5-10KT TO
INCREASE TO AROUND 15KT IN THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING TO
AROUND 10KT AFTER SUNSET. SCT/BLM

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR FORT PECK
LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

1030 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK... AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM WEDNESDAY...

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST. UPPER AIR ANALYSES REVEAL
THAT THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS HAS SHIFTED A BIT EASTWARD IN THE
LAST 12 HRS... NOW SITTING OVER ERN NC... AND ACCORDINGLY THE HIGH
PW VALUES OF LAST EVENING HAVE SLIPPED A BIT OVER CENTRAL NC... BACK
DOWN NEAR OR JUST UNDER NORMAL... EXCEPT HOLDING ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA. THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED
THROUGH THE NC PIEDMONT... AND THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY TODAY AS THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD BECOMES OVERTAKEN BY LOW
LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SSE... DRAWING THE SEA BREEZE INLAND. THIS
FEATURE SHOULD HELP FOCUS AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER OUR SE SECTIONS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING... AND WITH MINOR SPATIAL
ADJUSTMENTS... HAVE RETAINED CHANCE POPS IN THE SE TODAY...
SOUTHEAST OF RALEIGH. THE NIGHTTIME STRATUS IS ALREADY BURNING OFF
FAIRLY QUICKLY... AND WE SHOULD SEE CONVECTION FIRING BY EARLY
AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND/OR ANY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARIES. THE THREAT OF LOCALLY HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS STILL LOOKS
ELEVATED... PERHAPS NOT AS HIGH AS LAST EVENING THOUGH... BUT THE
LCL-0C DEPTH IS STILL CLOSE TO 4 KM IN OUR SE... WITH WEAK STEERING
FLOW ENSURING SLOW/MEANDERING MOVEMENT. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN
THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80... ON PACE TO REACH HIGHS IN THE 88-91 RANGE
AREAWIDE. -GIH

EARLIER DISCUSSION AS OF 345 AM WEDNESDAY... A WEAK FRONT/TROUGH
OVER SOUTHERN VA ISN`T MAKING MUCH PROGRESS TOWARD NC THIS
MORNING...THOUGH THE HRRR STILL SHOWS THE BOUNDARY SLIPPING INTO THE
PIEDMONT BY MID-MORNING. MEANWHILE...DRIER AIR ALOFT NOTED JUST
WEST OF THE AREA ON WATER VAPOR WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE PIEDMONT
AND THE COMBINATION OF THE DRIER AIR AND DEEP MIXING WILL KEEP MOST
OF THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT CAPPED TODAY. TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST...WHERE PW WILL STILL BE HIGH...1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES...MODEST
INSTABILITY SHOULD REDEVELOP AND SUPPORT SCATTED SHOWERS AND STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL BE WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY
AND A LACK OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL.
DON`T SEE MUCH NEED TO CHANCE THE CURRENT FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS. HIGHS WILL BE A DEGREE OR SO
WARMER THAN ON TUESDAY...88-91.

IN THE ABSENCE OF FORCING ALOFT....CONVECTION WILL BE MOSTLY DIURNAL
IN NATURE...COMING TO AN END AFTER SUNSET. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. -22

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM WEDNESDAY...

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM WEDNESDAY...

..A TRANSITION TOWARD SUMMERTIME IN CENTRAL NC..

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 650 AM WEDNESDAY...

SOME AREAS OF STRATUS/FOG HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING...THOUGH THE
COVERAGE IS SCATTERED AND NOT ALL TAF SITES ARE BEING IMPACTED. THE
MVFR CONDITIONS AT KGSO/KINT WILL BE BRIEF AND CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE BY 13Z. AROUND KFAY...WHERE RAINFALL WAS VERY HEAVY LAST
NIGHT...THE STRATUS MAY PERSIST THROUGH 14Z AND SOME MVFR CEILINGS
MAY LINGER EVEN AS THE STRATUS LIFTS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
ALL SITES BY LATE MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY FROM KFAY TO KRWI. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
AND IMPACTS...IF ANY...IS LOW. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
SLOWLY BECOMING SOUTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SYNOPSIS...KS
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...22

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

650 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK... WHILE A WEAK TROUGH OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE HOLDS OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM WEDNESDAY...

IN THE ABSENCE OF FORCING ALOFT....CONVECTION WILL BE MOSTLY DIURNAL
IN NATURE...COMING TO AN END AFTER SUNSET. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM WEDNESDAY...

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM WEDNESDAY...

..A TRANSITION TOWARD SUMMERTIME IN CENTRAL NC..

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 650 AM WEDNESDAY...

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...22

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

942 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK FOR THIS UPDATE WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES.
INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
PART OF THE STATE THROUGH LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. ALSO
SCALED BACK PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST BY
LATE AFTERNOON BASED ON HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE AND RADAR
TRENDS...AND INCREASED CLOUDS OVER THE WHOLE CWA THROUGH THE
EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

BLENDED POPS FOR THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON TO A BLEND OF THE
08-10 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
OBSERVED RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 1130 UTC. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

KEPT THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL...BUT ALSO RAISED CHANCES IN THE NORTH AS EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THERE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

A TYPICAL EARLY TO MID JUNE PATTERN WITH NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN MONTANA AT 11Z HAD MOVED
INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SPREADING/DEVELOPING EAST DURING THE DAY INTO KBIS AND EVENTUALLY
TO KJMS. TOO UNCERTAIN ABOUT KMOT. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTS INTO TONIGHT. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
LOWERING TO MVFR AT KISN/KDIK/KBIS/KJMS AFTER 00Z IN SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS AND FOG.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...ZH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

645 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

KEPT THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL...BUT ALSO RAISED CHANCES IN THE NORTH AS EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THERE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

A TYPICAL EARLY TO MID JUNE PATTERN WITH NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

1054 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID SUMMER LIKE PATTERN WITH VERY WARM AIR AND INCREASING
DEWPOINTS.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO REAL CHANGES ARE NEEDED. THE
VALLEY FOG IS BURNING OFF AND THE SMOKE FROM THE FIRES ARE MOVING
OUT OF THE AREA. THIS LEAVES THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH AND THE
BUILDING BERMUDA HIGH TO THE SOUTH AS THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. AT
THIS TIME DON/T EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH TO MAKE IT THIS
FAR SOUTH. THE HRRR MODEL DOES SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR
PERRY COUNTY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.

AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 80 IN THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR
90 IN THE COAL FIELDS. IT SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THAT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FRINGE OF BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL DICTATE CONDITIONS TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH THE RETURN OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...AND INCREASE IN
THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS...AND LARGELY DRY AIR
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. KEEP THE CWA DRY DESPITE A SMALL
TEMPTATION TO ADD LOW END DIURNAL HEATING POPS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT JUST NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO SUPPORT
THIS. EXPECT TO SEE A LITTLE ENHANCED CUMULUS OVER THESE AREAS
HOWEVER.

850MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS...SO THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE TO LOWLAND MID TO UPPER 80S WITH A 90 DEGREE
READING HERE AND THERE...AND MOUNTAINS 5-10 DEGREES OFF THE PACE.

RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BE A POSSIBILITY TONIGHT.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A MID SUMMER LIKE PATTERN WITH
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY UNDER A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. WHILE
THIS WILL KEEP FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA...THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BECOME A RATHER DIRTY ONE. THIS MEANS THAT THERE WILL BE
A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD ON
SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...COMPLIMENTS OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WITH TIME...ESPECIALLY DURING
AFTERNOON HEATING. THUS...LOOK FOR AN INCREASING CHANCE OF A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM WITH EACH PASSING DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE THIS PERIOD WILL BE SATURDAY...AND
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE MODELS TARGET A PLUME OF DEEPER
MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO COMBINE WITH
THE ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE. THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S THURSDAY BEFORE THE REAL JUICE ARRIVES...THEN
GRADUALLY PULL BACK INTO THE 80S BY SATURDAY WITH THE DEEPER
MOISTURE...MORE CLOUDS...AND BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
USED WPC GUIDANCE WITH SOME TWEAKS. UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS
THE REGION THRU THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...WAVY COLD FRONT
REMAINS TO OUR NORTH.

WITH NO REAL ORGANIZED FORCING MECHANISMS...HAVE TWEAKED THE POPS
TO REFLECT THE THOUGHT THAT CONVECTION SHOULD GENERALLY TAKE ON A
DIURNAL NATURE.

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOG HAS LIFTED LIFTED...VFR THROUGH THE DAY. RIVER VALLEY FOG
TO FORM ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT AS THE WIND GOES CALM IN A MAINLY CLEAR
SKY.

WINDS TODAY LESS THAN 10KTS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF VALLEY FOG TONIGHT
COULD VARY.

.AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/JMV/26
NEAR TERM...FB/26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...FB/26

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

955 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOOKS LIKE THE AREA WILL SEE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION TODAY
AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND CHANGED THE WORDING TO SCATTERED. HAVE
ALSO ADDED A MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS LATE IN THE DAY. RIGHT NOW
IT APPEARS BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE OVER THE EASTERN
END OF THE AREA WHERE LCL HEIGHTS AND UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE THE
BEST. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR LAKE BREEZE FRONTS. AREAS IN
BETWEEN THE STORMS WILL SEE SOME SUNSHINE SO FORECAST HIGHS SEEM
REASONABLE.

ORIGINAL...THE HRRR HINTS AT DEVELOPING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH WEAK UPPER SUPPORT ACROSS SRN
LWR MI EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN EXPANDING IT AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. A QUICK LOOK AT THE RADAR SHOW THE FIRST
OF THESE SHOWERS ALREADY WEST OF DETROIT MOVING SOUTHEAST. BY 15Z
THE HRRR HINTS AT THE ENTIRE AREA BEING VULNERABLE TO SHOWERS
BEFORE DRIFTING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE MORNING JUST AS
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FIRES TO OUR WEST ON THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE MORNING EVERYWHERE FOR THE
FIRST BATCH. THIS AFTERNOON WILL HAVE HIGHER CHANCE POPS DROPPING
SSE ACROSS THE AREA. WARM AIR MOVES IN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH 50MB TEMPS
18-20C. THIS IS GOOD FOR UPPER 80S WITH A ROGUE 90 NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION WEST.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THIS EVENING THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE JUST TO OUR NORTH/NORTHWEST
WITH ONGOING SCATTERED CONVECTION LIKELY ONGOING IN THE AREA AND
ALONG THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING REACHING JUST SOUTH OF A FORT WAYNE TO MANSFIELD LINE BY
THURSDAY MORNING. FOLLOWING 925MB NAM TEMPS IT APPEARS THE FRONT
DRIFTS NORTH A BIT THROUGH THE DAY AND THEN CONTINUES NORTH
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM IOWA TO THE
CENTRAL LAKES. FOR TONIGHT WILL INCREASE POPS TO HIGH CHANCE AND
LIKELY GIVEN THAT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AS THE
FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA. WILL ALLOW FOR A DIURNAL DECREASE TO
LOW CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE TOWARDS MORNING THURSDAY. FOR THE DAY
THURSDAY WILL GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AS PARENT LOW WILL BE WELL
NORTHEAST IN QUEBEC AND FORCING SHIFTS WEST TO DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WILL BOOST POPS BACK TO HIGH
CHANCE AND LIKELY FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA.

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LEADING AREA OF SHOWERS WILL TEND TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS
LAKE ERIE BUT COULD BRING A BRIEF SHOWER TO YNG/ERI THROUGH 14Z.
OTHERWISE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FILLING IN UPSTREAM ACROSS
NRN INDIANA WHERE MOISTURE IS INCREASING AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY. THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST BUT WEAKEN SOME
WITH TIME. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TOWARDS 20Z. ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OF
35-50 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE BREEZY TODAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-20 KNOTS AND GUSTS
OF 20-30 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON-VFR FRI THRU SUN WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA.

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

759 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...SHOWERS DEVELOPED AS ANTICIPATED AND ARE NOW OVER LAKE
ERIE MOVING EAST. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS
WESTERN LWR MI AND NRN INDIANA AS WELL. EXPANDED CHANCE POPS EAST
FASTER THROUGH THE MORNING . OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON-VFR FRI THRU SUN WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA.

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

627 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON-VFR FRI THRU SUN WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA.

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PORTLAND OR

358 AM PDT WED JUN 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HOT WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END TODAY AS A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND OPENS THE
DOOR FOR STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE ABOUT
10 DEGREES COOLER INLAND THAN TUESDAY...BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE EARLY JUNE NORMALS. THE COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A DRY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
FROM WESTERN CANADA. STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEEPEN THE
MARINE LAYER ALLOWING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS TO PENETRATE FURTHER INLAND
EACH MORNING. ANY LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR BACK TO THE COAST BY
MIDDAY EACH DAY...YIELDING PLENTY OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE INLAND. NO
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BLUSTERY ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPED
TUESDAY EVENING...SIGNALING THE BEGINNING OF THE END TO THE EARLY
SEASON HOT SPELL ACROSS SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON.
KAST-KPDT PRESSURE GRADIENTS TOPPED +10 MB TUE EVENING...AIDING IN
THE PUSH OF MARINE AIR EAST OF THE COAST RANGE. THE RESULT IS MUCH
MORE SEASONABLE MORNING TEMPERATURES TODAY...WITH MANY LOCATIONS
RUNNING 10 DEG F COOLER THAN THIS TIME TUESDAY. ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD
MAINTAIN THIS 24 HR TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE TODAY...WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS LIKELY ABOUT 10 DEG F COOLER TODAY VERSUS TUESDAY. THIS WILL
KNOCK AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 70S TODAY FOR KELSO/
LONGVIEW...AND DOWN TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FURTHER INLAND.
THIS IS STILL A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR EARLY
JUNE...BUT WILL BRING CONSIDERABLE RELIEF FROM THE NEAR-RECORD HEAT
WHICH HAS GRIPPED THE REGION THE PAST 4 DAYS.

THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE AXIS WHICH BROUGHT THE HEAT TO THE REGION HAS
WEAKENED A BIT AND IS NOW BEING SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
OREGON. THIS IS OPENING THE DOOR FOR MORE PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT TO DEVELOP ACROSS WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE CLIPPING
WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON THIS MORNING...DEEPENING THE MARINE LAYER TO
ABOUT 1500 FT ALONG THE COAST. A FINGER OF LOW CLOUDS IS EXTENDING UP
THE COLUMBIA TO KELSO/LONGVIEW EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT WILL PROBABLY
HAVE A HARD TIME REACHING THE PDX METRO TODAY DUE TO THE DRY
LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS IN PLACE. ANY LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR BACK TO THE
COAST BY MIDDAY TODAY YIELDING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS OVERALL SETUP WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THURSDAY.

MODELS NOW SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A GULF OF ALASKA LOW WILL MOVE
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA THU NIGHT/FRI. MEANWHILE THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO BE PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH INTO CA/NV. STRONG
ONSHORE FLOW IN BETWEEN WILL CONTINUE THE COOLING TREND...DEEPENING
THE MARINE LAYER AND POSSIBLY BRINGING MORE CLOUDS INLAND FRIDAY
MORNING. 00Z ECMWF/GFS SHOW 850 MB TEMPS LOWERING TO AROUND +10 DEG C
ACROSS NW OREGON FRIDAY...A FAR CRY FROM THE LOWER 20S SEEN EARLIER
THIS WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP ONSHORE FLOW AND THE COOLER AIR
MASS ALOFT SHOULD PUSH TEMPS BACK DOWN TOWARD SEASONAL NORMS
FRIDAY...WITH COAST HIGHS NEAR 60 AND INLAND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.

DESPITE THE STRONG 100 KT+ WESTERLY JET FCST TO BE OVER WASHINGTON
FRIDAY...IT WILL REMAIN VERY DRY ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER SO NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE FROM DRIZZLE BEING WRUNG OUT OF THE DEEPENING
MARINE LAYER...MAINLY ALONG THE NORTH COAST. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE TO LOWER TEMPS BACK DOWN TOWARD SEASONAL NORMS AND
THEN KEEP THEM THERE FOR A WHILE. WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...00Z GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH CANADA THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS ON THE COAST IN THE
60S...AND INLAND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. ANOTHER SURGE OF
ENERGY WILL DIG FURTHER SOUTH OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH...WHICH WOULD
EXTEND THE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY LATE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. DESPITE THE TROUGHING...500 MB HEIGHTS REMAIN RATHER HIGH AND
IT IS DOUBTFUL MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. 00Z GFS/GEM HINT AT A DEEPER UPPER LOW NEARING THE PAC NW
COAST LATER TUE/WED... BUT THIS IS WHERE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES START
TO DIVERGE. DECIDED TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH
TUE/WED...THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WEAGLE/27

.AVIATION...MVFR STRATUS ALONG THE COAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND
16Z...AND AGAIN AFTER 06Z. INLAND CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
VFR. HOWEVER...DECENT ONSHORE WINDS SHOULD HELP PUSH COASTAL
STRATUS UP THE COLUMBIA RIVER THIS MORNING AND COULD BRING A
PERIOD OF REDUCED FLIGHT RULES. IT IS STILL UNCLEAR HOW MUCH OF AN
INLAND PUSH THE STRATUS WILL MAKE...BUT EXPECT ANY INLAND STRATUS
TO BURN OFF BY 18Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT AN INLAND STRATUS PUSH
WILL AFFECT THE TERMINAL THIS MORNING AND BRING A PERIOD OF
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 12-18Z. /64

.MARINE...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRES REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE NE PAC. THE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE STRONGEST DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS
AND EASE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT. STEEP SEAS AROUND 7 TO 9 FT...WITH A
DOMINATE PERIOD OF 7 TO 8 SECONDS...LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY. A LONGER PERIOD SWELL IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE ON FRIDAY AND COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF ADVISORY SEAS
OVER THE WEEKEND. MUCH MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT
WEEK WITH GUSTS TO 15 KT AND SEAS NEAR 4 TO 5 FT. /64

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
OUT 60 NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM PDT
THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS MORRISTOWN TN

1031 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

.DISCUSSION...
12Z RAOBS DO NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE OHX AND FFC SOUNDINGS SHOW A COUPLE
OF SMALL INVERSIONS BELOW 650 MB THAT WILL HAVE TO BE BROKEN...AND
LIFT TODAY WILL BE LACKING WITH A WEAK WIND FIELD THROUGH THE
ENTIRE COLUMN. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SMOKIES AND SW NC...BUT THE HRRR AND NAM
REFLECTIVITY DEPICTIONS ARE LIKELY OVERDONE. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POP ONLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. SLIGHT TWEAKS WILL BE MADE TO
HIGH TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY DOWNWARD AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY.

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

DGS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN DIEGO CA

152 PM PDT WED JUN 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CENTERED NEAR THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...HIGH DESERTS...AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE INLAND EMPIRE. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN ON THURSDAY
WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND PATCHY MORNING FOG ALONG THE COASTAL SLOPES.
ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE AREA WILL BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BRINGING WEST NORTHWEST FLOW WITH DRIER AIR...WARMER
WEATHER...AND A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER.

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AT 1 PM PDT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE
THE REGION STEMMING FROM A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH...CENTERED NEAR THE
THE SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. PER VISIBLE SATELLITE...GROWING CU
WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE SPINE OF THE RIVERSIDE COUNTY AND SAN
BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS. SHOWERS HAD ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS NEAR JOHNSON VALLEY.

SCATTERED TO OVERCAST STRATUS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND HAVE UPDATED SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS. AS
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL ADVECT OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. THE 10/1200Z GFS INDICATES A VORT MAX PUSHING
THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...CAPE BETWEEN 100-200
J/KG...LIFTED INDEX BETWEEN -1 AND -3 DEGREES C OVER THE SAN
BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS...RIVERSIDE MOUNTAINS...AND THE UPPER DESERTS.
WITH THESE CONDITIONS...COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD DESTABILIZE ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS
CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR AND NAM4 ARE SHOWING THE
ELSINORE CONVERGENCE ZONE DEVELOPING A SHOWER OR TWO SO HAVE ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP TO THIS AREA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IS ALSO
CONFIRMING THIS CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY. OF THE STORMS THAT DO
FORM....BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WOULD BE THE
MAIN CONCERN. AS 500 MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO LOWER...TODAYS HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES F COOLER IN COMPARISON
TO YESTERDAY.

ON THURSDAY...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION WITH
THE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD OUT OF CALIFORNIA. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND
OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TODAY. ON FRIDAY...THE 10/1200Z GFS...
ECMWF...AND NAM ALL INDICATE AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING
SOUTH AND MOVING OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. LIFT FROM THIS WAVE
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MODERATE AMOUNTS OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD JUSTIFY CONTINUING THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND UPPER DESERTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE OF PRECIP DEVELOPING IS MODERATE.

THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...SQUEEZED BETWEEN A TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND SUB
TROPICAL HIGH TO THE SOUTH. AS 500 MB HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXPECT ONSHORE FLOW...A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND...AND A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER.

.AVIATION...
102020Z...THROUGH 11/0300 UTC...OVC-BKN STRATUS WITH HIGHLY VARYING
BASES AS LOW AS 1100 FT MSL NEAR THE COAST AND AS HIGH AS 2800 FT
MSL IN THE INLAND EMPIRE...AND TOPS OF 2000-3000 FT MSL...WILL
CONTINUE. ALSO...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING IN THE SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS WITH CB TOPS 20000-25000 FT MSL. OTHERWISE...SCT CLOUDS IN
THE 7000-10000 FT MSL LAYER CONTINUING OVER THE MTNS...WITH FEW-SCT
CLOUDS IN THIS LAYER ELSEWHERE. 11/0300-1500 UTC...WIDESPREAD
STRATUS DEVELOPING OVER THE REST OF THE COAST AND VALLEY
SECTIONS...WITH BASES 800-1500 FT MSL AND TOPS 2000-3000 FT MSL.
SOME MTN OBSCURATION OF COASTAL SLOPES POSSIBLE. UNRESTRICTED VIS
AND DIMINISHING CLOUDS IN THE 7000-10000 FT MSL LAYER FOR THE MTNS
AND DESERTS DURING THAT TIME-PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW-TO-
MODERATE.

AFTER 11/0000 UTC...WEST WINDS 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS 30-35 KT OVER MTN
RIDGES...THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES/CANYONS...ALONG DESERT SLOPES AND
INTO ADJACENT DESERT AREAS WILL CREATE MOD-STG UDDFS/LLWS OVER AND
EAST OF THE MTNS.

.MARINE...
120 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED.

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

PUBLIC...JT/JJT
AVIATION/MARINE...HARRISON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO

1141 AM MDT WED JUN 10 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT WED JUN 10 2015

SEVERAL SHOWERS ONGOING THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EMBEDDED WITHIN. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NOW APPROACHING
1.1 INCHES...THE RECORD FOR THIS DATE...RAINFALL RATES THIS
MORNING OF 0.3" IN 10 TO 20 MINUTES THIS MORNING WERE NOT
SURPRISING. PW`S ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY. QUITE
A BIT OF CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING...WITH NO LARGE BREAKS UPSTREAM
LOOKING TO AFFECT US. HAVE DECREASED MAX TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY BY
A COUPLE DEGREES. HOWEVER WHAT WARMING WE WILL HAVE...AND THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE NOW OVER WESTERN
COLORADO...STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE OUT ON THE EASTERN PLAINS. THESE
STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE A LOT OF PRECIPITATION IN A SHORT
TIME EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE MOVING QUICK. ISOLATED AREAS MAY
EXPERIENCE SOME FLOODING FROM THESE STORMS...MAINLY NEAR AND SOUTH
OF I70...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR ANY SORT OF FLOOD WATCH.
HOWEVER...TODAY`S PRECIPITATION AND THEN TOMORROWS EXPECTED COLD
FRONT AND UPSLOPE WEATHER PATTERN SET UP WILL INCREASE THE FLOOD
THREAT OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND MOST OF NORTHEASTERN COLORADO
PLAINS. HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TOMORROW WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
UNDER STRONGER STORMS AS WELL AS UPSLOPE ENHANCED AREAS LIKE THE
FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE. THIS WATCH WILL GO THROUGH FRIDAY
NOON.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT WED JUN 10 2015

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT WED JUN 10 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT WED JUN 10 2015

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT WED JUN 10 2015

A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE STATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE UPSLOPE
FLOW THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PLAINS AND INTO THE FOOTHILLS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1 TO 2
INCHES...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS UNDER STRONGER STORMS AND OVER THE
UPSLOPE ENHANCED FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE. SATURATED SOILS WILL
INHIBIT MUCH SOAKING AND COULD CAUSE FLOODING ISSUES QUICKLY. THIS
WILL CAUSE RIVERS AND STREAM LEVELS TO RISE AND THE MAIN RIVERS
DOWNSTREAM...NAMELY THE SOUTH PLATTE...RESULTING IN ANOTHER SURGE
OF WATER TO PUSH DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND. ROCK/MUDSLIDES WL BE AN
ISSUE AS WELL IN THE FOOTHILLS. THEREFORE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY NOON.

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR COZ035-036-038>047-049.

UPDATE...KRIEDERMAN
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN
HYDROLOGY...KRIEDERMAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON SC

644 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY...THEN WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/TSTMS CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS INLAND AREAS
AHEAD OF THE RESULTANT SEA BREEZE. KCLX REFLECTIVITY DATA SHOW
SEVERAL WELL DEFINED CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS ARE POISED TO COLLIDE
ACROSS FAR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AS WELL AS ALLENDALE-
HAMPTON COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
INSTABILITY REMAINS SUFFICIENT IN THESE AREAS TO SPAWN ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST RAP OUTPUT. HAVE THEREFORE
ADJUSTED POPS TO 80-90 PERCENT ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. ALSO REMOVED MENTIONABLE POPS FROM CHARLESTON COUNTY AS
IT APPEARS THIS AREA WILL REMAIN DRY IN THE WAKE OF THE RESULTANT.

TSTMS HAVE BEEN VERY PULSY IN NATURE TODAY WITH BRIEF...BUT
INTENSE...UPDRAFTS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE TSTM CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT...BUT THE AREA WEST OF I-95 AND NORTH OF I-16 IS THE MOST
LIKELY AREA FOR SEVERE TSTMS TO OCCUR. THE RISK FOR MINOR FLOODING
ALSO CONTINUES WITH TSTMS EXHIBITING VERY SLOW STORM MOTIONS.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST IS FORECAST
TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST SC/GA CREATING MORE CAPPING ALOFT
BUT DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. SOME MORNING
ATLANTIC/COASTAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL TRANSITION INLAND DURING
THE DAY AS A WEAK SEA BREEZE SETS UP AND INTERACTS WITH MODEST
INSTABILITY. BEST RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE SOUTH AND WEST OF
CHARLESTON. HIGHS LIKELY A BIT ABOVE NORMAL NEAR 90 INLAND. BY
THURSDAY NIGHT MOST OF THE RAIN WILL TRANSITION OFFSHORE WHERE THE
HIGHER INSTABILITY WILL BE. LOWS GENERALLY AROUND 70.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...EXPECT LOW RAIN CHANCES AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS ALOFT AND DEEP MOISTURE DIMINISHES A BIT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ON THE RISE AS CLOUD/RAIN COVERAGE DIMINISH AND LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES INCREASE. SHOULD SEE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND FRIDAY AND
MID 90S SATURDAY. EVEN THE BEACHES COULD GET NEAR 90 AS THE SEA
BREEZE GETS PINNED CLOSE TO THE COAST DUE TO THE ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST. BASED ON SOME
MIXING OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND RESULTANT LOWERING OF DEWPOINTS
DURING PEAK HEATING...HEAT INDEX VALUES INLAND SHOULD TOP OUT NEAR
100 DEGREES...ESPECIALLY BY SATURDAY...PROBABLY JUST SHY OF THE
EARLY SEASON ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS PRETTY SIMPLE...A
STRENGTHENING AND RETROGRADING UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WITH THE WESTERN
EXTENT OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THE FORECAST
FEATURES WARMING TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE TO NO DIURNAL CONVECTION.
HIGHS WILL BE SOLIDLY IN THE MID 90S THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
SOME INLAND AREAS RISING INTO THE UPPER 90S AT TIMES. THIS WILL
RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING INTO THE 100-103 DEGREE RANGE AT
TIMES...PERHAPS HIGHEST MONDAY AFTERNOON. LOCAL HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH THE MONTH OF JUNE IS 105...SO THERE IS CERTAINLY A
CHANCE THAT SOME LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH THIS THRESHOLD INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WATCHING TSTMS TO POSSIBLY IMPACT KSAV 00-02Z...BUT SUSPECT
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF THE TERMINAL. VFR EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL AT BOTH SITES THROUGH SUNRISE. CONVECTION WILL INCREASE
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS AT BOTH TERMINALS.
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/COVERAGE REMAINS TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY A MENTION
OF TSRA AT EITHER TERMINAL THIS FAR OUT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN...MAINLY VFR
LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A REDUCED PROBABILITY FOR DIRECT
IMPACTS FROM DIURNAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...S/SW WINDS 10-15 KT WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALIZED
HAZARDS...ESPECIALLY THROUGH FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY SOUTHERLY
WINDS WITH THE MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF AFTERNOON SURGES
NEAR THE COAST WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND NIGHTTIME SURGES DUE TO
NOCTURNAL JETTING. SEAS 4 FT OR LESS...HIGHEST GENERALLY BEYOND 20
NM.

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

303 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

COLD FRONT SLOWLY EDGING TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN
A MUGGY AIRMASS. LAPS DATA SHOWING 4000-5000 J/KG AVAILABLE ENERGY
BUT SO FAR, CONVECTION HAS NOT YET STARTED. HOWEVER, CONVECTION IS
ANTICIPATED ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT SAGS INTO ILX NORTHERN TIER.
ADVANCEMENT OF THE FRONT IN THE OVERNIGHT IS LIMITED WITH STRONG WAA
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED TO
REMAIN IN THE NORTHERN TIER AT LEAST IN THE IMMEDIATE TERM. CAPE
WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT ONCE THE SUN SETS AND THE DIURNAL INFLUENCE
IS LOST. THAT BEING SAID, STILL ENOUGH OF A HUMID AND HOT AIRMASS
TO PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
NORTH OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY HAVANA TO DANVILLE. EVEN WITH PWS IN
EXCESS OF 1.5-2"...THE HRRR AND RAP/RUC IS SOMEWHAT LIMITING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THAT BEING SAID, THE
NORTHERN TIER OF ILX IS STILL IN A SLIGHT RISK THROUGH THE
EVENING...AND WITH AMPLE CAPE, EVEN WITHOUT A LOT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR, STORMS CAN EASILY DEVELOP SOME GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

THE 12Z MODELS SHOW THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING NORTHWARD IN THE
MORNING, IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE WILL CREATE A HOT AND
HUMID DAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SE IL. STORM CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO
THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT NORTHWARD, SO AREAS NORTH OF A LINE FROM
RUSHVILLE TO LINCOLN TO BLOOMINGTON WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCES.
SPC INCREASED OUR SEVERE POTENTIAL FROM MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK IN
THAT GENERAL AREA, WITH ELEVATED CAPES OF 2-2500 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR
OF 20-25KTS PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. SO DOWNBURST WINDS AND HAIL WILL
BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FOR THURS AFTN/EVE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW IN EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL SLIDE EAST
ACROSS IOWA. A BREAK IN THE STORMS APPEARS LIKELY, UNTIL AROUND
SUNRISE ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW REACHES CLOSE TO NW IL. STORM CHANCES
WILL EXPAND TO THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY...AS THE LOW PASSES TO OUR
NORTH AND IT DRAGS A COLD FRONT INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE
FRONT WILL TRIGGER STORMS, SOME POSSIBLE SEVERE WITH HAIL AND WIND.
SPC HAS US IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. WE FOLLOWED
THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA WITH
LIKELY POPS, FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ALL SHOW THE COLD FRONT STALLING OUT ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON SATURDAY...KEEPING THE FOCUS FOR STORMS
SOUTH OF PEORIA TO BLOOMINGTON. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
HELP LOWER HIGH TEMPS NORTH OF THE FRONT INTO THE LOWER 80S, BUT
HUMIDITY WILL NOT IMPROVE MUCH AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN MID TO UPPER 60S.

THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, WITH
STORM CHANCES INCREASING TO LIKELY ON SUNDAY WEST OF A LINE FROM
EFFINGHAM TO DANVILLE...AS A COUPLE OF STRONG SHORTWAVES TRIGGER
PERIODIC STORMS. LIKELY CHANCES OF RAIN LINGER NORTH OF PEORIA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE PLAINS INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. MORE LIKELY POPS APPEAR EVIDENT IN THE EXTENDED
MODELS FOR TUESDAY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES FROM KANSAS INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS.

ONE MAIN THEME THROUGHOUT THE 7 DAY FORECAST IS HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT IN THE AIRMASS, AND INSTABILITY EVERYDAY. SHEAR PARAMETERS
GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 25KTS, WHICH LENDS TOWARD SLOW MOVING
STORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. FLASH FLOODING
COULD BECOME A REAL CONCERN IN AREAS THAT SEE REPEATED STORM TRACKS
OVER THE NEXT WEEK. RAINFALL RATES OVER SHORT PERIODS OF TIME COULD
EASILY CLIMB AS HIGH AS 3 INCHES PER HOUR...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES REPEATEDLY CLIMB TOWARD 2 INCHES.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015
MESSY FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH PERIODIC THUNDER
CHANCES. HAVE OPTED FOR A TEMPO INVOF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS DOMINATE OTHER TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VCTS IS ENOUGH TO COVER SPI AND DEC
THROUGH THIS EVENING. BREAKING FROM VCTS TO VCSH TO LEAVE A BIT OF
A GAP IN THE THUNDER COVERAGE IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. SCT
AC ON SAT IMAGERY AND OBS CURRENTLY, SOME MORE SFC BASED CU
EXPECTED WITH THE CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND LINGERING
SCT LLVL CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND LIKELY BKN HIGH FROM
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS, ALTHOUGH MODEL TIME HEIGHTS ARE VERY DIFFUSE
WITH THE MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN AS WELL.

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...SHIMON
AVIATION...HJS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

1118 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
745 AM CDT

MTF

.SHORT TERM...
330 AM CDT

THROUGH TONIGHT...

MTF

.LONG TERM...
402 AM CDT

THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID
70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH LAKESIDE AREAS FAVORED TO REMAIN IN THE 60S
WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW.

MTF

.CLIMATE...
500 AM CDT

MTF/KJB

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...

* GUSTY WEST WINDS THIS MORNING...BECOMING NORTHEAST TOWARD
EVENING WITH SAGGING COLD FRONT/LAKE BREEZE COMBINATION.

* TSRA LIKELY ALONG FRONT/LAKE BREEZE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING.

KJB/RODRIGUEZ

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...

THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE THREAT
AND TIMING FOR A PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH A
NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHIFT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

KJB

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...

* MEDIUM WITH FRONT/LAKE BREEZE WIND SHIFT TIMING THIS AFTERNOON.

* HIGH WITH TSRA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT MEDIUM ON
IF THESE STORMS WILL MOVE OVER A GIVEN TERMINAL AND DURATION.

* LOW-MEDIUM WITH LOWER CIG POTENTIAL AND TIMING THURSDAY
MORNING.

KJB/RODRIGUEZ

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

THURSDAY NIGHT...GOOD CHANCE OF TSRA. EAST WINDS.

FRIDAY...TSRA LIKELY. SOUTHWEST WINDS.

SATURDAY...IFR TO MVFR CIGS. NORTHEAST WINDS.

SUNDAY...GOOD CHANCE OF TSRA. SOUTH WINDS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING
SOUTH ON TUESDAY.

KJB

.MARINE...
313 AM CDT

PERIODS OF ACTIVE WEATHER LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES INTO NEXT
WEEK AS THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE AND VERY MOIST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

KJB

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

326 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

COLD FRONT WAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND CONTINUED TO MOVE SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD. AT 3 PM IN OUR NORTHERN CWA TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE
MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S IN OUR FAR NW CWA. SOUTH
OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES WERE IN THE MID 90S TO 100
IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA.

THE HI-RES HRRR MODEL FIRES UP THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. SBCAPES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MORE THAN 5000 J/KG BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS VERY
WEAK. BUFKIT SHOWS THE CIN DIMINISHING BY MID AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE TO OVER 1.8 INCHES. THESE PARAMETERS
SUGGEST THE STRONGER STORMS WOULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
TORRENTIAL RAINS. WITH FREEZING LEVELS AT 13K THE THREAT OF LARGE
HAIL IS LOW. THE NAM FIRES UP THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING SO IS
LATER THAN THE HRRR BUT FOR NOW THE FORECAST HINGES ON THE MESO
MODEL. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

TONIGHT...FRONT WILL STALL IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA THIS EVENING AS IT
RUNS INTO RIDGING ALOFT THAT EXTENDS FROM TX TO MO. AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT THIS FRONT WILL BEGIN
LIFTING SLOWLY BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD
WITH THE FRONT AND ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ALSO INCREASES OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
AND HEAVY RAINFALL. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
60S NORTH TO AROUND 70 SOUTH.

THURSDAY...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT INCREASES AS A SURFACE
CYCLONE TRACKS INTO WESTERN IA BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE WARM
FRONT LIFTING INTO OUR NORTHERN CWA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR BECOMES
STRONG (50 KT) DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SBCAPES INCREASE TO
2500-3000 J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY ESPECIALLY IN OUR
NORTH CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT...AND THEN SPREADING INTO OUR
WESTERN CWA AS THE STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR LIKELY BUT THE MAIN TORNADO THREAT AT THIS
TIME LOOKS TO BE TO OUR WEST CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW AND TRIPLE
POINT. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS OVER OUR ENTIRE CWA.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S ALONG HIGHWAY
20 TO NEAR 90 IN OUR FAR SOUTH. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S IN OUR FAR SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE ACTIVE
PATTERN AND ROUND OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH
THE PATTERN HAS SHIFTED NORTH INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THE LONG TERM AT
LEAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EVERY DAY FOR THE
EXCEPTION OF FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WITH FORECAST QPF AMOUNTS
WE MAY START TO SEE SOME HYDRO IMPACTS ON OUR WATERWAYS.

THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH A SFC CYCLONE PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN CWA. WARM FRONT
SHOULD BE JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. 1000-700 AND H85 MOIST TRANS VECS
PEG AREAS ACROSS SOUTHERN MN INTO CENTRAL WI. THIS AREA WILL BE THE
AREA FOR THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER WITH THE CAPE
ACROSS OUR AREA ALONG WITH HIGH PWATS OF CLOSE TO 2 INCHES...
SUGGESTS THAT HEAVY RAIN COULD FALL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT. AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD
THREAT COULD EXIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA THURSDAY EVENING INTO
FRIDAY AM.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTERS IDEAS ON THE
SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE AREA QUICKLY FRIDAY DURING THE DAY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A DRY FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO NORMAL THEN THE FLOW TURNS ZONAL AND EVEN SW. A SERIES OF
WAVES WILL LEAD TO THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. AS WE
GET CLOSER TO EACH OF EVENTS...THE MESOSCALE FEATURES WILL BECOME
BETTER FORECAST AND DETAILS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. HOWEVER...MVFR/LCL IFR CONDS IN
THUNDERSTORMS THAT FIRE UP LATER THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
80 ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING WEAKENING COLD FRONT.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT.

WIND FORECAST...FOR KCID/KDBQ/KMLI NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON BECOMING NORTHEAST TONIGHT THEN SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY.
WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS. FOR KBRL...SOUTHWEST TO WEST
THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING NORTHEAST TONIGHT THEN SOUTH ON THURSDAY.
WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

WITH WPC FORECAST OF CLOSE TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN TO OUR NORTH...IT
LOOKS AS THOUGH WE MAY SEE SOME FLOODING ISSUES ON OUR RIVERS AS THE
THE WATER IS ROUTED INTO OUR AREA. CONTINGENCY FORECASTS SUGGEST
THAT SOME OF THE SITES COULD REACH FLOOD STAGE IF THE CURRENT
FORECAST HOLDS TRUE. AS A RESULT...CUSTOMERS WITH INTERESTS AROUND
THE RIVERS SHOULD PAY ATTENTION FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING IN THE NEXT
FEW DAYS TO WEEK.

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...HAASE
HYDROLOGY...GIBBS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

103 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

WEAK COLD FRONT HAS JUST PASSED THROUGH THE QUAD CITIES WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST. AT NOON IN OUR NORTHERN CWA TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 50S IN OUR
NW CWA. SOUTH OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES WERE WELL INTO THE 80S
WITH MT. PLEASANT AT 90 WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. HEAT
INDEX VALUES AT NOON WERE IN THE MID 90S IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA.

THE HI-RES HRRR MODEL FIRES UP THUNDERSTORMS BY MID AFTERNOON
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. SBCAPES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MORE THAN 4000 J/KG BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK.
BUFKIT SHOWS THE CIN DIMINISHING BY MID AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE
WATERS INCREASE TO OVER 1.8 INCHES. THESE PARAMETERS SUGGEST THE
STRONGER STORMS WOULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND TORRENTIAL
RAINS. WITH FREEZING LEVELS AT 13K THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL IS LOW.
THE NAM FIRES UP THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING SO IS LATER THAN THE
HRRR BUT FOR NOW THE FORECAST HINGES ON THE MESO MODEL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1003 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

1 MIN SRSOR VIS FROM GOES14 DEPICTS THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
MORNINGS CONVECTION QUITE WELL. 1 MIN DATA SHOWED OVERSHOOTING
TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGEST STORM OVER MERCER COUNTY. WHEN
THESE TOPS STOPPED....THE STORM COLLAPSED. AS AS TCU AND STORMS
BECAME LESS ATTACHED TO THE MIDLEVEL BOUNDARY STORMS STARTED TO
DECAY. AS A RESULT...CHANGED HOURLY POPS TO BETTER REPRESENT WHAT
IS GOING TO HAPPEN. ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AS THE 1 MIN DATA
SUGGESTS THAT CLOUDS FROM THE NORTH ARE FILLING IN ACROSS THE
AREA. OTHERWISE SMALL CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES WERE MADE.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

A COLD FRONT IS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDWEST...EXTENDING FROM
GRB TO ARX TO DMX TO SUX AT 08Z. SATELLITE SHOWS MAIN SHORT WAVE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT RACING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN NORTHERN
STREAM...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE SOUTHWESTERN US AND
EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

FORECAST FOCUS REMAINS ON VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.

FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE CWFA THIS MORNING. WITH
UPPER SUPPORT WELL TO THE NORTH AND RACING QUICKLY EAST...SHOULD SEE
A MAINLY DRY FROPA THE REST OF TONIGHT. WITH SUNRISE...HOWEVER...
SITUATION BEGINS TO CHANGE. FRONT WILL SLOW AND EVENTUALLY STALL
OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWFA TODAY AS THE UPPER FORCING EXITS TO
THE EAST. WARM AIR ALREADY IN PLACE AND BUILDING UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL RESULT IN A VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWFA. SOME SPOTS COULD SEE HEAT INDEX NEAR OR
AT 100F.

WITH THE BOUNDARY IN THE AREA AND ABUNDANT HEATING...CHANCE FOR
STORMS TO DEVELOP WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WITH DEW POINTS AT 70+...ATMOSPHERE WILL BE EXTREMELY
UNSTABLE. AND INDEED MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPES OVER
4000J/KG. EVEN ASSUMING MODEL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS OVERDONE
AND LOWERING SURFACE DEW POINTS BY A CATEGORY OR TWO...STILL YIELDS
HIGH CAPES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
DOWNBURSTS WITH STORMS TODAY AND SPC HAS INCLUDED THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF OUR AREA IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. GIVEN POTENTIAL
UPDRAFT STRENGTH CANNOT RULE OUT HAIL AS A THREAT BUT BELIEVE
DAMAGING WIND IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

TONIGHT...WE SHIFT OUR ATTENTION TO THE SOUTHERN STREAM WHERE A WAVE
WILL BEGIN TO EJECT OUT OF COLORADO AND WITH IT AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW. THE STALLED FRONT OVER SOUTHERN IA WILL BEGIN TO NUDGE
SLOWLY NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL SPREAD NORTH
ACROSS THE CWFA. LIMITED UPPER FORCING AND DECREASING INSTABILITY
SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE THREAT TONIGHT...HOWEVER...INCREASING
PRECIPITABLE WATERS AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT WILL ENHANCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EAST CENTRAL PLAINS LLVL CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE
TO ORGANIZE AND DEEPEN ON THU AS UPPER LEVEL WAVE/JET ENERGY EJECTS
OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN PLAINS TOWARD THE MO RVR VALLEY BY LATE IN
THE DAY. ASSOCIATED WNW-TO-ESE ORIENTED WARM FRONT WILL LOOK TO
RETREAT NORTHWARD ACRS THE CWA...BUT ONLY THE NAM CLEARS THE CWA BY
00Z FRI WHILE BULK OF THE OTHERS LINGER THE BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE NORTH
OF I80 TO THE HWY 30 CORRIDOR THU AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. WITH
ANY KIND OF MORNING CONVECTION ALONG THIS FRONT IT WILL PROBABLY BE
SLOWED UP AND WILL LEAN TOWARD THE HWY 30 LAY OUT BY THU EVENING.
ALTHOUGH STRONGEST FORCING/DEEPER LIFT MECHANISMS WILL LOOK TO OCCUR
FURTHER TO THE WEST ALONG AND EAST OF THE MO RVR VALLEY/WESTERN HALF
OF IA INTO SW MN THU AFTERNOON...SHEAR ALONG THE RETREATING WARM
FRONT AND ADJACENT MUCAPE POOL ALONG AND SOUTH OF IT POSSIBLY
REACHING 3K-4K J/KG COULD FUEL A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN THE
NORTH HALF OF THE CWA THU AFTERNOON. LARGE TEMP GRADIENT FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH BECAUSE OF THE FRONT...WITH AREAS IN THE SOUTHERN CWA OR
EVEN JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT WARMING INTO THE 90S IF CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLEARS IN TIME. HEAT INDICES OF A 100 OR MORE IF SFC DPTS CAN
POOL AT LEAST INTO THE LOWER 70S.

ASSESSING SEVERAL MCS SPAWNING PARAMETERS AND GENERATION TOOLS... THE
MODELS ARE CURRENTLY ADVERTISING AN IMPRESSIVE SET UP FOR STRONG
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OUT WEST IN THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF IA INTO
SOUTHWESTERN MN THU AFTERNOON...WITH A RESULTANT SIGNIFICANT MCS
THEN PROPAGATING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. MODEL ENSEMBLES UTILIZING A
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ LOADED WITH A PWAT AIR MASS OF 1.8 TO 2
INCHES... FEED A VERY HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING COMPLEX ACRS NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL IA...SOUTHERN MN INTO THE NORTH HALF OF WI LATE
THU AND THU NIGHT. SEVERAL MODELS HAVE EVEN TRENDED A HEAVY RAIN
AXIS FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST THAN THAT AND FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WITH
THE AXIS FROM SW MN INTO NW WI. BUT LOOKING AT THE TRUE LLVL
CONVERGENT AXIS OF THE THTA-E RICH FEED...+18 TO +20C H85 TEMP
GRADIENT AND MCS GENERATION/SUPPORT PARAMETERS BY THESE SAME
MODELS....THEY MAY BE INDUCING THE HEAVY PRECIP COMPLEX TO FAR TO
THE NORTH AND FEEL IT WILL BE MORE ALONG AN AXIS FROM NORTHWESTERN
IA...ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER AND THEN INTO SOUTHWESTERN TO CENTRAL WI
BY EARLY FRI MORNING. THUS SOME POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CWA OF 1-2 INCHES THU NIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF CID TO
DBQ. WITH LINGERING HIGH CAPES IN PLACE AND INCOMING LIFT...THERE
MAY BE A CHANCE FOR MORE SEVERE STORMS EVEN AT THE USUALLY MORE
UNFAVORABLE LATER AT NIGHT TIME FRAME...AS THE SOUTHEASTERN FLANK OF
THE MCS ITSELF OR TRAILING LINE OF STORMS MAKES IT/S WAY ACRS
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT LATE
NIGHT THREAT. LOCAL FLASH FLOODING IN THE NORTHWEST HIGH RAIN AREAS
AS WELL WITH INTENSE RAINFALL RATES POSSIBLE. THE INCOMING SYSTEM
COULD CLEAR OUT BY MID FRI MORNING QUICKER THAN WHAT THE MODEL
SUGGEST...THEN A LULL PERIOD TO RECOVER FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
STRONG GRADIENT WIND SURGE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS FRI AM BEHIND/IN
THE WAKE DEPARTING MCS. COOLER FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S.

SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...PASSING WAKE LLVL RIDGE LOBE
PROBABLY TO MAKE SAT THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH A BREAK IN THE
RAIN AND TEMPS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S. BUT MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS/
MREF THINKING SUGGEST THIS REPRIEVE SHORT LIVED WHILE
SOUTHWESTERLIES RE-LOAD ACRS THE PLAINS AND A POSSIBLE WAVE EJECTS
OUT TOWARD THE AREA LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THEN THE REGION
APPEARS TO SET UP ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF BROAD UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE OH RVR VALLEY...WITH ONGOING HIGHER MOISTURE FEED UP AND
AROUND IT/S WESTERN FLANK ENHANCED WITH MONSOONAL INFLUENCE. THUS
THE NOW WELL ADVERTISED WET REGIME IN THE ACTIVE ZONE WITH
OCCASIONAL STORMS CLUSTERS STILL APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK THIS
PERIOD...IT/S JUST THE UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE THE PRIME AXIS-STORM
TRACK WILL LAY OUT. BUT AGAIN THE MREF SUGGESTS WE WILL BE IN OR
VERY CLOSE TO IT WITH THE WET TRACK LAYING OUT FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS OVER TO THE SOUTHERN GRT LKS. ..12..

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...HAASE
SYNOPSIS...DMD
SHORT TERM...DMD
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...HAASE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

515 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF
PITTSBURGH AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
515PM UPDATE...ATMOSPHERE REMAINS CAPPED...EASILY SEEN WITH THE
WARM 700MB TEMPS AND THE LACK OF CU. THE WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT
DEVELOPED A FEW SHOWERS EARLIER ACROSS THE NORTH HAS EXITED TO THE
EAST AND THE AREA IS NOW DRY. THE WEAK FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO
MOVE INTO THE NORTH LATE THIS EVENING HAS SLOWED...CAUSING A PUSH
BACK IN POP TIMING. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARD A BIT THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...BECAUSE OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED CAP AND THE
LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN THE PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY. ITS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY THAT ANY SEVERE
ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP...MAY EVEN STRUGGLE TO GET ANY CONVECTION
GOING AT ALL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SLIGHT RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AS A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE AREA. WHILE THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING WAS
VERY DRY...UPSTREAM MID LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES ARE MUCH HIGHER AND
EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A MID LEVEL LOW
TRANSITIONS ACROSS ONTARIO AND INTO QUEBEC AND WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
STRENGTHENS. LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW FAIRLY THIN CAPE
PROFILES BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT STILL SEE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS TO GO SEVERE...MAINLY DUE TO
WINDS WITH DCAPE VALUES ANTICIPATED BETWEEN 1000-1300 J/KG.

SCATTERED SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT WITH MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THERE IS NO
SEVERE THREAT.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED TO TURN SOUTHWEST LATER THURSDAY PUSHING
THE FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FRIDAY IS PROGGED TO KEEP SHOWER/STORM CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST THOUGH WITH LACK OF A TRIGGER KEPT ONLY LOW POPS. THE
NEXT ORGANIZED SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED FOR A SATURDAY PASSAGE...ALONG
WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...WITH CONTINUED SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES. WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE
PASSAGE OF THE SATURDAY FRONT.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS AN EASTERN CONUS RIDGE
BUILDS...LEAVING WEAK QUASIZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
UPPER OHIO REGIONS. CHANCE PRECIP NUMBERS WILL HAVE TO BE
MAINTAINED GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF SHORTWAVE PROGRESSION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PERIMETER OF THE RIDGE...I.E. THE IMMEDIATE AREA. WPC
GUIDANCE GENERALLY DEPICTED THE SITUATION WELL AND FEW CHANGES
WERE NEEDED.

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONVECTION FROM THIS MORNING HAS STRUGGLED TO MAKE IT FAR FROM
LAKE ERIE THROUGH THE NOON HOUR WITH SUCH A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE...AS INDICATED IN THE 12Z PIT SOUNDING. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CHANGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS GUSTY SW FLOW
MOISTENS THE LOWER LEVELS AND PROVIDES FOR SOME INSTABILITY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP ALONG BOTH THE COLD FRONT AND LAKE
BREEZE.

UNTIL THAT TIME...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST. WITH INCREASING
CONFIDENCE...CONTINUED TO MENTION TSRA FOR KFKL AND KDUJ BUT CHOSE
TO KEEP IT OUT OF THE SITES FURTHER SOUND WITH LESS CONFIDENCE
THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAKE IT BEFORE NIGHTFALL AND A LOSS OF
HEATING. EXPECT TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS AT ANY SITE THAT EXPERIENCES
A THUNDERSTORM...WITH LINGERING RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT POSSIBLE
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.

COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARD TOMORROW...WITH
RESTRICTIONS IN THUNDER AGAIN POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...CONVECTION
WOULD BE LATE ENOUGH THAT IT WAS NOT ADDED TO THIS TAF ISSUANCE AT
THIS TIME.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS ANTICIPATED WITH A
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

301 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH
OF PITTSBURGH AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A SLIGHT RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AS A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE AREA. WHILE THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING WAS
VERY DRY...UPSTREAM MID LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES ARE MUCH HIGHER AND
EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A MID LEVEL LOW
TRANSITIONS ACROSS ONTARIO AND INTO QUEBEC AND WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
STRENGTHENS. LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW FAIRLY THIN CAPE
PROFILES BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT STILL SEE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS TO GO SEVERE...MAINLY DUE TO
WINDS WITH DCAPE VALUES ANTICIPATED BETWEEN 1000-1300 J/KG.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONVECTION FROM THIS MORNING HAS STRUGGLED TO MAKE IT FAR FROM
LAKE ERIE THROUGH THE NOON HOUR WITH SUCH A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE...AS INDICATED IN THE 12Z PIT SOUNDING. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CHANGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS GUSTY SW FLOW
MOISTENS THE LOWER LEVELS AND PROVIDES FOR SOME INSTABILITY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP ALONG BOTH THE COLD FRONT AND LAKE
BREEZE.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS ANTICIPATED WITH A
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

118 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONVECTION FROM THIS MORNING HAS STRUGGLED TO MAKE IT FAR FROM
LAKE ERIE THROUGH THE NOON HOUR WITH SUCH A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE...AS INDICATED IN THE 12Z PIT SOUNDING. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CHANGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS GUSTY SW FLOW
MOISTENS THE LOWER LEVELS AND PROVIDES FOR SOME INSTABILITY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP ALONG BOTH THE COLD FRONT AND LAKE
BREEZE.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS ANTICIPATED WITH A
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

154 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MORNING CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE CLEARED OUT OF THE AREA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES NOW PREVAILING. THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...BUT THEY
SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE I-94 TAF SITES.

CANNOT RULE OUT SOME FOG TONIGHT...BUT CHANCE SEEMED TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY TRY
TO STREAM IN OVERNIGHT...BUT BASES WILL BE ABOVE 20000FT. THURSDAY
MORNING...AFTER 12Z...CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD BACK IN FROM
THE SOUTH AND WEST...WITH BASES IN THE 5000-10000FT RANGE.

GUSTY WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL TAPER THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET.

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1142 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1149 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015

THERE ARE NO IMMEDIATE CONCERNS ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS. THERE
MAY BE IMPACTFUL PRECIPITATION LATER IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN POSSIBLE.

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JK
SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...JK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

1229 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

.AVIATION...

WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO INHIBIT DIURNAL CU
DEVELOPMENT, A TREND WHICH SHOULD MORE OR LESS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING. OPPORTUNITY FOR FEW-SCT COVERAGE AROUND 5KFT BY MID-AFTN
WITH HIGHEST PROABILITY INVOF KMBS. LOW PROBABILITY FOR A TSTORM IN
THE DETROIT AREA BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS VERY LOW AND HIGH COVERAGE
IS NOT EXPECTED. THUS, NO MENTION OF TSTORM IN THE FORECAST. GUSTY
SW WINDS TO AROUND 30 MPH WILL VEER TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT BEFORE SUBSIDING WITH NOCTURNAL DECOUPLING THIS EVENING.

FOR DTW...VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR A TSTORM MAINLY 20-23Z TIME
WINDOW. BEST CHANCE WILL BE NEAR THE OHIO BORDER. AREA SATELLITE
REVEALS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
PARTIAL COVERAGE OF DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL CLOUD AROUND 7KFT. MENTION
OF SCT050 BY LATE AFTN REMAINS WARRANTED BUT CONFIDENCE IN CIG
DEVELOPMENT IS LOW.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILING AOB 5KFT

* LOW CONFIDENCE THAT A TSTORM WILL IMPACT KDTW AIRSPACE

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1203 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

UPDATE...

PLUME OF STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THAT SUPPORTED MORNING
CONVECTION IS RAPIDLY SHIFTING EAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE
FORECAST BY THE RAP TO CONTINUE DIMINISHING TO BELOW 6C/KM OVER THE
NEXT 4-5 HOURS AS GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES GET UNDERWAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW
IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW ENTERING CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN HAS ALLOWED T/TD TO RISE TO AROUND 80/65 ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. THIS STRONGLY SUPPORTS THE GOING FORECAST OF MID/UPPER 80S
WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO AT LEAST THE MID 60S. THE 20-00Z PEAK
HEATING PERIOD WILL SEE MLCAPE INCREASE TO 1500-2500 BETWEEN I-96
AND THE OHIO BORDER...HIGHEST SOUTH. NO CHANGE IN THINKING WITH
REGARD TO SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH A LEGITIMATE HAIL/WIND THREAT
EXISTING CONDITIONAL ON DEVELOPMENT WHICH REMAINS UNCERTAIN. TO THE
END OF GETTING A BETTER HOLD ON EML/CAPPING FOR BOTH MESOANALYSIS
AND 18Z MODEL INGESTION DTX WILL LAUNCH AN 18Z RAOB. ALL-IN-ALL A
NICE, IF A BIT HUMID, SUMMER DAY UNFOLDING SAVE FOR THE LATE AFTN
SEVERE THREAT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 355 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

LONG TERM...

MARINE...

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ421-422-
441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ444.

AVIATION.....JVC
UPDATE.......JVC
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

1203 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

.UPDATE...

PLUME OF STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THAT SUPPORTING MORNING
CONVECTION IS RAPIDLY SHIFTING EAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE
FORECAST BY THE RAP TO CONTINUE DIMINISHING TO BELOW 6C/KM OVER THE
NEXT 4-5 HOURS AS GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES GET UNDERWAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW
IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW ENTERING CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN HAS ALLOWED T/TD TO RISE TO AROUND 80/65 ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. THIS STRONGLY SUPPORTS THE GOING FORECAST OF MID/UPPER 80S
WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO AT LEAST THE MID 60S. THE 20-00Z PEAK
HEATING PERIOD WILL SEE MLCAPE INCREASE TO 1500-2500 BETWEEN I-96
AND THE OHIO BORDER...HIGHEST SOUTH. NO CHANGE IN THINKING WITH
REGARD TO SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH A LEGITIMATE HAIL/WIND THREAT
EXISTING CONDITIONAL ON DEVELOPMENT WHICH REMAINS UNCERTAIN. TO THE
END OF GETTING A BETTER HOLD ON EML/CAPPING FOR BOTH MESOANALYSIS
AND 18Z MODEL INGESTION DTX WILL LAUNCH AN 18Z RAOB. ALL-IN-ALL A
NICE, IF A BIT HUMID, SUMMER DAY UNFOLDING SAVE FOR THE LATE AFTN
SEVERE THREAT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

.AVIATION...ISSUED 703 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MODERATE FOR CEILING OF 5000 FT OR LESS TODAY WITH
THUNDERSTORMS.

* MODERATE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MORNING. LOW DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 355 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

LONG TERM...

MARINE...

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ421-422-
441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ444.

UPDATE.......JVC
AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO

1221 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 358 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

Scattered storms expected to develop near the MO/IA border this
afternoon. There is a slight chance some of these could develop south
enough to impact the KC area this afternoon but these chances are
only 20 percent or less. Otherwise dry weather expected most of the
TAF period with storm chances returning tomorrow afternoon.

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Hawblitzel

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BUFFALO NY

334 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...DRIVING A LINE OF
STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION THURSDAY BRINGING A NICE DAY WITH LESS HUMIDITY BEFORE
MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER ARRIVES FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
REGIONAL RADARS AT 3PM ARE SHOWING A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ORIENTED ALONG AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT WHICH STRETCHES
FROM NEAR OTTAWA SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO AND
FINGER LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ERIE. THESE LEADING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TAPPING INTO ABOUT 500 J/KG OF SBCAPE
WITH 40-50 KTS OF BULK SHEAR ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
PER 19Z SPC MESOANALYSIS. SOME GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

AS THIS ACTIVITY SHIFTS EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AND EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO IT WILL ENCOUNTER A LESS BUOYANT AND SHEARED ENVIRONMENT
SO ACTIVITY WILL STILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED FOR SEVERE THREATS.

A BREAK WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE LEADING ACTIVITY WITH A VERY UNCERTAIN
SEVERE RISK POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT
NOW CROSSING MICHIGAN. RECENT AIRCRAFT SOUNDING FROM UPSTREAM /CYYZ/
SHOW AN INCREASING MID-LEVEL CAP AS A SURGE OF WARM AIR SHIFTS IN
BEHIND THIS AFTERNOONS ACTIVITY. NUMEROUS RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE
SHOWING VERY LIMITED ACTIVITY ALONG THE COLD FRONT LIKELY DUE TO
THIS CAP. THE HRRR DOES BREAK OUT A THIN LINE OF CONVECTION FROM THE
GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD WHILE THE 12Z NSSL WRF AND NAM MODELS ARE
MORE BULLISH WITH A SOLID LINE OF CONVECTION TRACKING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AFTER 00Z. WITH THESE DIFFERENCES HAVE KNOCK BACK POPS
TO LIKELY/HIGH CHANCE RANGE WHILE KEEPING CAT POPS ALONG LAKE
ONTARIO AND EASTWARD WHERE ALL THREE ABOVE MODELS SEEM TO AGREE ON
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT.

KEEPING THE UNCERTAIN DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORM IN
MIND...FORECAST MUCAPE VALUES UP TO AROUND 2000 J/KG WOULD PROVIDE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY FOR STORMS TO FEED ON IF THEY CAN OVERCOME
THIS CAP WITH FORECAST BULK SHEAR ALONG THE FRONT TO AROUND 50 KTS.
A MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY LINER CONVECTION
WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO AS WELL WITH
ACTIVITY ANY CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT LATER THIS EVENING WITH LOW
LEVEL VEERING OF WIND PROFILES AND FORECAST HELICITY VALUES FROM THE
NAM OF OVER 300 M2/SEC2 WITH A FAVORABLE HODOGRAPH SIGNATURE.

THE BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT THIS EVENING SHOULD SHIFT
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WHILE WEAKENING AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO STABILIZE. DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD LIMIT ANY FOG TO RIVER VALLEYS OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL ONLY DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.

THURSDAY...A PUSH OF DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL BRING CLOUD-FREE LOWER LEVELS WITH STREAMERS OF
HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS FOUND AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW STREAKS EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN FLAT RIDGING. WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IN
PLACE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEPING THE LAKE ONTARIO
SHORE COOLER.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
EVENING...THEN IN ITS WAKE...A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM ABOUT
CHI TO CLE WILL STRENGTHEN AND PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST. CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SHOULD STAY TO OUR WEST...ALTHOUGH OUR
FORECAST AREA SHOULD EXPERIENCE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS.

ON FRIDAY...THE WARM FRONT WILL PROCEED TO THE NORTH TO ABOUT LAKE
ONTARIO. WHILE IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT PARTS OF OUR
REGION PICK UP A MORNING SHOWER FROM THE PASSING OF THE FRONT...THE
BULK OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ISENTROPIC FORCING
WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. BY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON...MOST OF
WESTERN NEW YORK SHOULD BE INTO THE WARM SECTOR BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT. WHILE THE BULK OF THE DAY SHOULD BE RAIN FREE...THE MORE
UNSTABLE AIRMASS SHOULD BE ABLE TO SUPPORT AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER IN THE VCNTY OF ANY LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY.
OTHERWISE IT WILL BE WARM DAY WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LAKE
PLAINS REACHING INTO AT LEAST THE MID 80S. SITES EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE 70S...AS CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WARM FRONT SHOULD INHIBIT DIURNAL HEATING.

A SFC WAVE WILL TRACK EAST ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY
NIGHT. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL PUMP
VERY MIST AIR ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH SOME GUIDANCE PACKAGES
SUGGESTING AN INCREASE IN PWAT VALUES TO AROUND 2 INCHES. THIS VERY
MOIST ENVIRONMENT...COMBINED WITH THE FORCING FROM THE PASSING
FRONTAL WAVE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HEAVY RAIN. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH LIKELY POPS WHILE ADDING THE MENTION
OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE PACKAGE.

AS THE WAVE MOVES EAST SATURDAY MORNING...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
SAG SOUTH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TO VIRGINIA. MEANWHILE...A
BURGEONING H5 RIDGE WILL BE FOUND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY WILL EXTEND SOUTH
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGING WILL
ENCOURAGE THE SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTH DURING THE COURSE
OF THE MORNING WITH SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL DRYING LEADING TO
INCREASED SUNSHINE FOR SITES NORTH OF LINE FROM BUFFALO TO
CANANDAIGUA DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SAT AFTERNOON SHOULD
PEAK IN THE UPPER 70S FOR MOST AREAS.

RIDGING WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THIS WILL PROVIDE FAIR DRY WEATHER FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED NEAR THE
PENNSYLVANIA BORDER. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS
PERIOD AS FLAT RIDGING WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST BACK
ACROSS TEXAS...WHILE A NEAR ZONAL FLOW WILL STRADDLE THE CANADIAN
BORDER. THIS WILL KEEP A STEADY DIET OF RELATIVELY STEADY DIET OF
RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AS A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WILL INCREASE POPS TO
HIGH CHC...ALTHOUGH BULK OF THE DAY SHOULD BE RAIN FREE.

THE FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH OF REGION MONDAY NIGHT...SO ANY
EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE DURING THE COURSE OF
THE OVERNIGHT.

WHILE A SECOND COLD FRONT MAY DROP ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY OR
EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT...IT WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
WILL THUS KEEP THAT TIME FRAME MAINLY DRY WITH ONLY SLGT TO LOW CHC
POPS.

THE ECMWF IS DEPICTING A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON OUR SOUTHERN
DOORSTEP WEDNESDAY...SO WILL INCLUDE LOW CHC POPS TO END THE PERIOD
AS WELL.

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 19Z A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS SHIFTING ACROSS
THE FINGER LAKES REGION INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK. VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH
BRIEF MVFR/IFR VIS IN PASSING SHOWERS AND STORMS.

EXPECT A LULL BEHIND THESE LEADING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE REGION THIS EVENING. THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN DEVELOPMENT OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT LATER THIS EVENING DUE TO MIXED
SIGNALS IN VARIOUS NEAR TERM GUIDANCE. IF IN FACT SEVERE STORMS CAN
DEVELOP SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT WITH A RETURN
TO VFR CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR MOST OF THE TIME WITH A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY...BECOMING VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

.MARINE...
A SOUTHWEST BREEZE IS PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS ON THE LAND. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS HAVE FUNNELED UP THE
NIAGARA RIVER AND ACROSS WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO WITH A BRIEF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE WINDS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CHOPPY
2 TO 3 FT WAVES. A LEADING AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO CROSSING
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO WITH GUSTY WINDS.

A HIGHER YET STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN RISK OF SEVERE STORMS MAY COME
THIS EVENING ALONG A COLD FRONT. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
ALONG WITH LIGHTNING. AFTER THIS...EXPECT A RELATIVELY MODEST FLOW
WITH WINDS BELOW 15 KTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ030-042.

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

130 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK... AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM WEDNESDAY...

IN THE ABSENCE OF FORCING ALOFT....CONVECTION WILL BE MOSTLY DIURNAL
IN NATURE...COMING TO AN END AFTER SUNSET. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. -22

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM WEDNESDAY...

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM WEDNESDAY...

..A TRANSITION TOWARD SUMMERTIME IN CENTRAL NC..

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...

THIS MORNING`S MVFR CIGS ACROSS SRN NC ARE FINALLY MIXING OUT...
WITH FAY CIGS HAVING BECOME VFR. VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE AT ALL
SITES THROUGH 18Z THU... ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING (AROUND 20Z-
00Z) AS SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF NC...
AND MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES TONIGHT 08Z-12Z. ANY STORMS
NEAR FAY ARE APT TO MORPH INTO STORM CLUSTERS... POTENTIALLY
DIFFICULT TO NAVIGATE AROUND. TYPICAL GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE IN CELLS LATER TODAY... BUT THE RISK OF THESE REACHING
SEVERE LIMITS IS LOW. FOG TONIGHT IS NOT A CERTAINTY... WITH ABOUT
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RESUME WITH THE ONSET OF
HEATING AND MIXING BY ABOUT 14Z THU. ASIDE FROM IN/NEAR STORMS...
CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z THU... VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL
THROUGH MON. SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY... MAINLY FROM
MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING... BUT COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE HIGH... AND THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE VFR AT ANY
GIVEN LOCATION. EARLY-MORNING FOG REMAINS POSSIBILITY... MAINLY FROM
LATE WEEKEND ON... AS HEAT CONTINUES TO BUILD BENEATH A BUILDING MID
LEVEL RIDGE. -GIH

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SYNOPSIS...KS
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...HARTFIELD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

1258 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

FOR THIS UPDATE...TWEAKED PRECIPITATION CHANCES BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS AND LOWERED TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES BASED ON
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND CLOUD COVER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 937 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

KEPT THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL...BUT ALSO RAISED CHANCES IN THE NORTH AS EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THERE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

A TYPICAL EARLY TO MID JUNE PATTERN WITH NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WAS MOVING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...TRIGGERING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE STATE. THESE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND
DIMINISH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WHILE VFR CIGS AND
VSBYS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES...SOME PATCHY
FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER KDIK/KBIS/KJMS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
ON THURSDAY.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...ZH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...ZH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

212 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION HAVE
DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE SINCE LATE THIS MORNING.THE
BAND OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION HAS THINNED. THE
TIMING OF THIS LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS
DISRUPTED THE TYPICALLY TIMING OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AS CIN
DIMINISHES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND CAPE INCREASES ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHWEST OHIO...EXPECT SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH DCAPE INCREASING TO THE 1200-1400 RANGE SOME
STORMS MAY HAVE INTENSE DOWNDRAFTS/DOWNBURSTS. EXPECT ACTIVITY
OVER NORTHWEST OHIO AROUND 22-23Z WITH GRADUAL PROGRESSION EAST AND
WEAKENING. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION AND TIMING HAVE JUST
INCLUDED VCTS OR VCSH AT TAF SITES.

OVERNIGHT THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION BY MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH BY
00Z AND BECOME LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST BY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON-VFR FRI THRU SUN WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA.

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ147>149.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ142>146.

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...LAPLANTE
MARINE...KEC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEMPHIS TN

255 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER WEATHER HAS SET IN ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S...HEAT INDICES WERE
BETWEEN ONE AND THREE DEGREES WARMER IN MOST SPOTS. A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 BUT DRY AIR
ALOFT IS LIMITING THEIR DEVELOPMENT.

FOR TONIGHT...WILL GO WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR FORECAST. BOTH THE HRRR
AND RAP SHOW RAIN FREE CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH ANY CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON DISSIPATING BY SUNSET. HOWEVER...WILL MONITOR IN
CASE STORMS DO DEVELOP MORE THAN ANTICIPATED THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF
COASTAL STATES WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW
INCREASING MOISTURE TO PUSH INTO THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
WITH DAYTIME HEATING...SIMILAR TO TODAY PERHAPS A DEGREE
LESS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WITH
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH MS.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH FRIDAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE GULF
COAST. SOUTHERLY FLOW SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL CAUSE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCES ONCE AGAIN AS YOU GO SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERED SOME BY MORE CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED CONVECTION.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
OVER THE WEEKEND...AND PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. SEASONABLY WARM
WEATHER WILL OCCUR. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE BETTER
CHANCES MAY GRADUALLY SHIFT TO ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER AS
THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO THE EAST. IN ADDITION...WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY AFFECT AREAS
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER.

JCL

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AT MKL DUE TO
PATCHY FOG. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS. LIGHT SW/S WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE ANY VCTS IN AT SITES THIS AFTERNOON.

CJC

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

105 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...ALLOWING HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO BUILD
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION...ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT WILL THEN MOVE INTO
THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL FURTHER INCREASE OUR CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS
WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 925 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES FOR THIS MORNING INTO
THIS AFTERNOON. SHAPED TOWARDS THE LAV MOS. WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
TO OUR EAST WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PUSH WARM
AND HUMID AIR INTO OUR REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO
AROUND 80 DEGREES IN THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 90 DEGREES IN THE
PIEDMONT. THIS MORNINGS HRRR AND HIRESW-ARW EAST SUPPORT TO
MENTION OF ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE COMBINED WITH OROGRAPHIC
FORCING. HAVE A GOOD AFTERNOON.

AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL BE PULLING OUT...ALLOWING FOR
SOME FLAT RIDGING TO START OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL PROHIBIT
LARGE SCALE DYNAMIC FORCING TO GENERATE WEATHER AND LEAVE US TO
RUMINATE ON MORE SUBTLE FEATURES. THE SURFACE TROF TO OUR EAST WILL
CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY...ALLOWING THE REGION TO END UP ON THE
BACKSIDE OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WITH A GENERALLY SWLY RETURN FLOW.
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ARE RATHER LIMITED BUT OROGRAPHIC FORCING
ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS
SEVERAL MESO MODELS INDICATE. WILL CARRY A HANDFUL OF POPS IN THE
15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON TO COVER
THIS POSSIBILITY. WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AFTER SUNSET ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL CEASE IN THE EVENING AND ALLOW FOR A DRY FORECAST
FOR THE OVERNIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S EAST OF THE
RIDGE AND LOWER 80S TO THE WEST...THOUGH WITH DEW POINTS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE LOWER 60S THIS AFTERNOON IT STILL WILL NOT FEEL
OVERLY UNCOMFORTABLE. LOWS TONIGHT ONLY COOL INTO THE UPPER 60S
EAST/LOWER 60S WEST.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

AN INCREASINGLY SUMMERLIKE PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A LARGE
SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD FROM THE BAHAMAS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THE WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE HOWEVER...SOME SIGNIFICANT
FEATURES THAT WILL PUT A DENT IN WHAT WOULD OTHERWISE BE A TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF HAZY...HOT...AND HUMID WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION. FIRST...THERE IS EVIDENCE OF DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE...PERHAPS IN THE FORM OF A WEAK TROPICAL
DEPRESSION/UPPER LOW...PROGGED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
GULF. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE AIDED IN ITS NORTHWARD PROPAGATION
INTO OUR REGION BY THE RETURN OF THE EARLY WEEK FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THIS MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN RISING IN EARNEST FRI WITH DEWPOINTS
WELL INTO THE 60S...EVEN SOME LOWER 70S LOWLANDS AND PWATS INTO
THE 1.7 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE BY FRIDAY AND BEYOND. SECOND...THE FIRST
OF TWO BACKDOOR FRONTS WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH
FRIDAY...BEFORE RETREATING BACK TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. A
STRONGER...MORE SIGNIFICANT...AND LIKELY MUCH FURTHER SOUTHWARD
MOVING BACKDOOR FRONT IS EXPECTED SAT. THE GFS HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF IN BRINGING THIS FRONT DOWN INTO
THE N-NE PART OF THE CWA BY SAT EVENING.

FOR THURSDAY...LITTLE TO WORK WITH YET AND THE DEEP MOISTURE IS
STILL AT BAY TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS GA/SC AND SOUTHERN NC...BUT
CREEPING NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS BY AFTERNOON. WILL
BEGIN TO INTRODUCE LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS THU AFTERNOON
MAINLY WEST OF I-77...POSSIBLY REACHING AS FAR NORTHWARD AS
GREENBRIER COUNTY BY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE BEST COVERAGE AT THIS
TIME MAY ACTUALLY BE A LITTLE LATER THAN NORMAL...TOWARD 00Z FRI.

FOR FRIDAY...THE CRUX OF AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMANATING
ACROSS GA ALONG THE EARLIER STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING AN
ENHANCED THREAT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE CWA. THE
GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE...WHICH WILL ALSO COINCIDE WITH THE AREA OF BEST
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/OROGRAPHIC LIFT ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING...ESPECIALLY WEST OF
THE I-77. GIVEN A HIGH CAPE/LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH BASICALLY
NIL DYNAMICS ALOFT...EXPECT MAINLY PULSE STORMS WITH THE GREATEST
CONCERN BEING SLOW MOVING HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY WITHIN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE BACK DOOR FRONT WILL LIKELY ENHANCE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH/NORTHEAST COUNTIES WITH A FEW STRONG
STORMS POSSIBLE. COVERAGE MAY DECREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE CWA AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.
GREATEST CONCERN FOR STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL SAT/SUN
WOULD BE ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR...THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...AND
DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH AND ROANOKE VALLEYS.
SOUTHWESTWARD MOVING STORMS IN THE SUMMER OFTEN SURVIVE WELL AND
CAN BE STRONG...AND THIS APPEARS TO BE A SCENARIO FAVORING SUCH
AN OCCURRENCE.

GIVEN THE VERY WEAK DYNAMICS ALOFT...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY...WOULD
EXPECT CONVECTION TO DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER...IT
MAY LINGER A LITTLE LONGER INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS SAT-
SUN SUCH THAT POPS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY REMOVED.

MUCH OF THE CWA WILL BE FLIRTING WITH POCKETS OF 850MB TEMPS +20C
FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...DEWPOINTS
CLOSING IN ON 70...AND INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND
ASSOCIATED CLOUD DEBRIS SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S TO THE
PIEDMONT WHERE THE LEAST COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AS
WELL. THUS...WHILE IT BE WARMER THAN ANY TIME SO FAR THIS TIME AND
REMAINING CONSISTENTLY THAT WAY...HEAT INDICES APPEAR TO BE IN
CHECK IN THE LOW TO MID 90S IN THE WORST CASE SCENARIO...REMAINING
BELOW 90 WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. NIGHTS WILL BE MUGGY WITH LOWS
ONLY IN THE 60S WEST TO LOWER 70S PIEDMONT. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON MINS AND 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ON MAXES.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD WEST AND NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONSEQUENTLY...THE PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED WEST WITH TIME INTO THE LOWER/MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE TX/LA/AR REGION BY THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS THROUGH SATURDAY AND REMAINS OVER THE EAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE BACK DOOR FRONT THAT DRIFTED SOUTHWEST INTO
THE REGION SAT AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLIGHTLY FURTHER
SOUTHWEST TOWARD LYH/ROA AND THEN STALLS IN THIS VICINITY SUN-
MON...BEFORE RETREATING NORTHWARD. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO PEAK IN INTENSITY AND DRIFT SLOWLY BACK EAST BY TUE/WED.
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE TO TRIGGER/FOCUS
CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINING VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE...POP UP AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
APPEAR TO BE A GOOD BET EACH DAY...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ACROSS
THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS. HAVE CONTINUED CHANCE
TO HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH A DIURNAL TREND.

HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE ABOVE
NORMAL...MOSTLY 80S WEST TO LOWER 90S PIEDMONT WITH LOWS ONLY IN
THE 60S WEST TO LOWER 70S PIEDMONT. HEAT INDICES APPEAR TO REMAIN
BELOW CRITICAL VALUES AND THE DAILY ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION...ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS...AND HIGH
DEWPOINTS/PWATS SHOULD TEMPER MAX TEMPS AS WELL. NONETHELESS...IT
DOES APPEAR THAT WE ARE IN FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HEAT AND
HUMIDITY.

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 105 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SCT TO BKN CLOUDS AROUND 5K ASSOCIATED WITH A PERSISTENT INVERSION.
ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. UNLIKELY TO OCCUR AT ANY TAF LOCATIONS
BECAUSE OF THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE COVERAGE. EXPECTED AREAS OF
FOG AND HAZE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LWB AND BCB MAY DROP TO
IFR/LIFR IN THE RADIATIONAL FOG WHICH DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT. ANY FOG
THAT FORMS WILL LIFT/MIX OUT BY 10 AM...THEN SCT TO BKN CU WILL
DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY
BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT.
LIMITED COVERAGE ANTICIPATED ONCE AGAIN WITH BLF BEING THE TAF
LOCATION WITH BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION.

WINDS...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-9KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT 5-10 KTS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE SUMMER LIKE WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
CWA BY THE WEEKEND. CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE MOST
NUMEROUS ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. THE CONVECTION WILL RESULT
IN LOCALIZED AND BRIEF MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS...WITH GREATER
POTENTIAL FOR IFR-LIFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG MOST TAF SITES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
TAF VALID PERIOD OUTSIDE AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AND
NIGHTTIME/EARLY MORNING FOG.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...KK/MBS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...KK/RAB
AVIATION...KK/RAB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

334 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

...SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAIN EVENT WITH FLOODING POSSIBLE BEGINNING
LATE THU...

CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED IN THE NORTHERN STREAM NORTHWEST FLOW FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOTED IN EASTERN
WASHINGTON. MEANWHILE...IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM AN UPPER TROUGH
WAS PRESENT OVER CALIFORNIA WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO NEBRASKA.
WITHIN THAT SOUTHWEST FLOW...SHORTWAVES OF NOTE WERE OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH. BOTH SHORTWAVES ARE GENERATING
CONVECTION OVER COLORADO. CONDITIONS ARE QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WITH A NOSE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. A DRY AIRMASS AS
DEPICTED ON THE 12Z MPX SOUNDING...REFLECTED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER
OF 0.67 INCHES...HAS ALLOWED FOR DEEP MIXING AGAIN...PUSHING
DEWPOINTS DOWN AS LOW AS THE UPPER 40S IN SOME SPOTS. WITH 925MB
TEMPS OF 19C NORTH TO 22C SOUTH AND PLENTY OF SUN...TEMPERATURES
HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. TO OUR SOUTH...THE COLD
FRONT FROM LAST NIGHT HAS STALLED JUST SOUTH OF I-80. A MUCH MORE
HUMID AIRMASS EXISTS SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S AND 850MB DEWPOINTS OF 10-14C.

MODELS PROG THE TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT TO LIFT
OUT...WHICH ALLOWS SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM TO IMPACT THE
AREA BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST FOR THE SHORT TERM IS IN NORTHEAST COLORADO.
AS THIS SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO NEBRASKA TONIGHT...DPVA FROM
IT COMBINED WITH A STRONG INCREASE IN THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET
SHOULD FIRE AN MCS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA. AN IMPORTANT POINT HERE TO
NOTE...WHERE THIS MCS TRACKS TONIGHT LOOKS TO HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS IN
HOW OUR HEAVY RAIN SETS UP FOR THU/THU NIGHT AND POSSIBLE SEVERE
CHANCES THU EVENING. THIS IS NICELY SEEN IN 10.03Z AND 10.09Z SREF
MEMBERS...AS WELL AS AMONGST RUN TO RUN TRENDS OF DETERMINISTIC
MODELS. THE 10.12Z NAM WANTS TO TRACK THE MCS NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHWEST MN BY 18Z THU. HOWEVER...FOLLOWING MORE OF A NORMAL
CORFIDI TO FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTOR APPROACH...THE MCS
SHOULD MOVE MORE EAST WHICH IS NICELY REFLECTED IN THE 10.00Z NSSL
WRF...10.12Z GFS/REGIONAL CANADIAN. A MORE EASTWARD APPROACH KEEPS
THE CURRENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN SOUTHERN IA FROM LIFTING AS FAR
NORTH...WHICH IN TURN WOULD HELP SET UP THE STRONG FRONTOGENESIS
ZONE THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY FARTHER SOUTH.

WHILE THAT MCS IS DEVELOPING TONIGHT...A WARM ADVECTION WING OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER SHOULD FORM OVER IOWA OVERNIGHT AND
LIFT NORTH INTO SECTIONS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WING OF
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH ON THURSDAY...WITH THE
PRECIPITATION EXPANDING OVERALL AS THE SHORTWAVE IN NEBRASKA MOVES
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONALLY...PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOOTS UP
TO AROUND 2 INCHES IN THE AFTERNOON...PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR THE
SHORTWAVE TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION AND EVEN HEAVY AT THAT. THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL ACT TO SATURATE THE SOILS...PRECONDITIONING THEM
FOR FLOODING PERHAPS AS EARLY AS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY COULD BE QUITE THE RAW DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...EXCEPT SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 18. NORTH OF THE FRONT...A BRISK NORTHEAST WIND
DRAWING IN LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL ALLOW FOR WET-BULBING. COOLED
HIGHS A BIT AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

...FLOODING AND OTHER SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT...

THURSDAY NIGHT REMAINS THE MAJOR FOCUS FOR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
IMPACTS. THERE REMAINS STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THE CURRENT UTAH
SHORTWAVE TO COME ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT...PHASING AS WELL
WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY IN EASTERN
WASHINGTON. THE WHOLE SITUATION LOOKS SO SIMILAR TO A WINTER
SYNOPTIC STORM SYSTEM...EXCEPT THIS IS SUMMER AND WERE DEALING WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 2 INCHES AND UNSTABLE AIR. ALL MODELS SHOW
A JET COUPLING SCENARIO WITH A STRONG FRONTOGENESIS/FRONTOLYSIS
ZONE SETTING UP. THE CIRCULATION WILL LIKELY PICK UP INSTABILITY
FROM THE SOUTH...CAUSING THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ON
THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONTOGENESIS AND FRONTOLYSIS. THIS ZONE
HAS DEFINITELY DRIFTED SOUTH IN THE ENTIRE 10.12Z MODEL GUIDANCE...
WITH A CONSENSUS ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL RUNS SUCH AS THE DOWNSCALED NAM
ARE PRODUCING AS MUCH AS 4 TO 7 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL IN THE
FRONTOGENESIS ZONE. HOWEVER...ITS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THIS AXIS MAY
SHIFT NORTH OR SOUTH. AS A RESULT...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUED
ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE AXIS. ITS POSSIBLE THE
WATCH MAY NEED A TIER OF COUNTIES EXPANSION SOUTHWARD...PARTICULARLY
IF THE 10.12Z REGIONAL CANADIAN PANS OUT. MORE ON THE HYDROLOGY
IMPACTS BELOW IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION. BESIDES FLOODING...THERE
IS ALSO A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF US
HIGHWAY 18. DURING THE EVENING HOURS...THE WARM FRONT MAY LIFT AS
FAR NORTH AS THAT HIGHWAY...AS SUGGESTED IN THE 10.12Z
CANADIAN/ECMWF/NAM. IF SO...THE ENVIRONMENT HAS VERY FAVORABLE
SHEAR FOR ROTATING STORMS AND EVEN TORNADOES. THE PROBLEM MAY BE
THE CAPE WHICH IS MUCH HIGHER TO THE SOUTH NEAR I-80. THUS THE
SLIGHT RISK ON SPCS DAY 2 OUTLOOK.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO DEPART THE PRECIPITATION QUICKER ON
FRIDAY...IN RESPONSE TO THE PHASED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING AWAY FROM
THE REGION AND BRINGING IN SUBSIDENCE. FOLLOWED SUIT BUT DID KEEP
SOME LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
10.12Z ECMWF/GFS LINGERING AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER WESTERN WI.
CLOUDS STILL MAY TAKE AWHILE TO CLEAR...THOUGH...GIVEN SUBSIDENCE
AND TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THESE CLOUDS WILL HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN. MOST OF THE CLEARING SHOULD START TO OCCUR FRIDAY
NIGHT...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF I-90.

FOR THE WEEKEND...MUCH OF SATURDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY WITH THE
AREA DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACTIVE WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE PUSHED SOUTH TOWARDS I-70.
HOWEVER...FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
ROLL BACK INTO THE REGION. THESE ARE CAUSED BY A SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE AREA...BRINGING THE
WARM FRONT AND THE MOIST...UNSTABLE GULF OF MEXICO AIR WITH IT.
STILL SOME DISAGREEMENTS WITH THE MODELS ON THE CONVECTION...BUT THE
10.12Z CANADIAN/ECMWF BOTH WANT TO BRING A STRIPE OF 1-2 INCHES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WOULD ONLY EXACERBATE ANY RIVER
FLOODING. SOMETHING TO WATCH...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ECMWF
CONSISTENCY. THE 10.12Z GFS HAS TRENDED A BIT MORE WET AS WELL. MAY
NEED TO ALSO WATCH SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL AS THE ECMWF SHOWS DECENT 0-
6KM/0-3KM SHEAR.

NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO FEATURE MOSTLY A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN U.S. UNTIL ABOUT MIDWEEK WHEN TROUGHING FORMS OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN U.S. TO BUMP UP RIDGING DOWNSTREAM. THE TRICK IS TIMING
SHORTWAVES THROUGH THIS FLOW THAT CAN HELP TRIGGER SHOWERS AND
STORMS. RIGHT NOW THE GFS/CANADIAN AND ECMWF DO NOT AGREE AT ALL ON
WHEN...THUS THE FORECAST BROAD-BRUSHES 20 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCES.
WITH THE HIGH ZONAL FLOW...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR
SEASONABLE NORMS...AND BRIEF HUMID PERIODS AS SHORTWAVES PULL THE
MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

OBVIOUS VFR ACROSS REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. EVENTUALLY
CLOUD DEBRIS FROM DECAYING CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS TO WEST WILL SWEEP IN
TONIGHT BUT MAIN FOCUS WILL BE LATER THURSDAY AS STRONG SHORT WAVE
AND RELATED SURGE OF MOISTURE PUSHES INTO REGION.

WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SHOULD FORM SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AS WAVE APPROACHES AND LOW LEVEL JET RESPONSE KICKS IN.
THESE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS WILL SWEEP IN AFTER DAY BREAK.
SOME LOCATIONS...LIKE KRST...COULD SEE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
CONVECTION WITH ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN LIMITING FLIGHT RULES TO IFR OR
LIFR AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN LATER FORECAST PERIODS.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE 1
TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED 6 INCH
AMOUNTS. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE AREA FROM SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN IS UNDER THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL. HALF OF THIS RAINFALL COULD OCCUR IN A 3-6
HOUR TIME PERIOD BETWEEN LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY
EVENING...LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING. ADDITIONALLY...ALL THIS RAIN
WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES. CONTIGENCY FORECASTS SUGGEST
MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOOD STAGE REMAIN LIKELY FOR MOST RIVERS WHERE
THE HEAVIEST RAIN FALLS...EXCEPT THE MISSISSIPPI WHICH SEEMS
LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING. NOT ALL WEATHER EVENTS
ARE THE SAME...BUT THE AXIS AND AMOUNTS COULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO
THE SEPTEMBER 22-23 2010 EVENT.

RIVER BASINS CURRENTLY OF CONCERN INCLUDE BLACK...TREMPEALEAU...
BUFFALO...ROOT...ZUMBRO...CEDAR AND MISSISSIPPI.

ADDITIONALLY...WE NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON ADDITIONAL RAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WHICH COULD EITHER SLOW THE DROP OF
RIVERS OR EXACERABATE FLOODING CONCERNS. THERE ARE HINTS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES POSSIBLE.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR WIZ017-029-034-042>044.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR WIZ032-033-041.

MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR MNZ079-086>088-094>096.

IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR IAZ008-009.

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...SHEA
HYDROLOGY...AJ